AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ                                              
850 PM MST TUE JUN 24 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THE HOT DAYTIME            
TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH THE WEEK. SOME                    
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND              
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF THE TUCSON METRO               
AREA.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED SCATTERED MOSTLY LESS THAN 40 DBZ           
ECHOES ACROSS SRN COCHISE AND EXTREME ERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES AT                
0345Z. THE REST OF SE AZ WAS VOID OF PRECIP ECHOES. IR SATELLITE                
IMAGERY INDICATED CLOUD TOPS GRADUALLY COOLING OVER NERN SONORA AND             
SRN COCHISE COUNTY DURING THE PAST HOUR. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE                  
IMAGERY INDICATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FEATURE OVER SRN SONORA                  
MOVING SLOWLY NWD. GOES TOTAL PRECIP WATER VALUES OVER 1.0 INCH JUST            
SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH GENERAL 0.50-0.75 INCH VALUES            
OVER SE AZ. 25/00Z UPPER AIR PLOTS INDICATED DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE              
300 MB LAYER OVER FAR SE AZ/SW NM/NERN SONORA REGION...WITH MID-                
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ADJACENT THE ERN AZ/WRN NM BORDER. 25/00Z NAM ACCUM            
PRECIP FIELDS DEPICTED DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE AFTER 06Z AND                    
CONTINUING THRU WED MORNING. RUC SOLUTION ALSO SIMILAR...WITH A FEW             
HUNDREDTHS-INCH AMOUNTS OVER SRN COCHISE COUNTY ENDING 06Z.                     
BASED ON THE ABOVE DIAGNOSTICS...WILL MAINTAIN LOW-GRADE POPS SANTA             
CRUZ/COCHISE COUNTIES UNTIL 10Z WITH THE BELIEF THAT THE NWP                    
SOLUTIONS ARE UNDERDONE. ALREADY REMOVED INHERITED POPS FOR THE                 
WHITE MOUNTAINS/GREENLEE COUNTY/TUCSON METRO AREA FOR THIS EVENING.             
DEWPOINT AS OF THIS ISSUANCE 54F AT KDUG...AND WOULD NOT BE                     
SURPRISED IF 50S DEWPOINTS WILL BE EXPERIENCED AS FAR NORTH AS KTUS             
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING.                                                 
BELIEVE SOME UPSWING IN ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR WED PARTICULARLY GIVEN              
THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN PRECIP WATER VALUES...AS WELL AS 25/00Z NAM            
SOLUTION OF QPF VALUES WED AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS COCHISE COUNTY.             
MADE MINOR MODIFICATION TO THE INHERITED POPS FOR WED AFTERNOON/                
EVENING...AND STOPPING JUST SHORT OF CHANCE-CATEGORY POPS ACROSS                
COCHISE COUNTY. WILL DEFER TO MIDNIGHT SHIFT FOR ADDITIONAL                     
REFINEMENT. THEREAFTER...LOW-GRADE POPS TUCSON METRO AREA EWD/SWD               
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS WITH DRY CONDITIONS             
WRN SECTIONS SEEMS REASONABLE. DAYTIME MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE                 
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR LATE JUNE.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE            
WEEK. HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES                 
MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR MOST AREAS. NO SIGNIFICANT            
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BUT LOCALIZED                
BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS            
TO NEAR 30 MPH. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT            
CHANCE OF MAINLY DRY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FROM             
TUCSON EASTWARD...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ANY                         
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE                
STRONG...ERRATIC...AND GUSTY WINDS.                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...ISOLATED TSRA/SHRA VICINITY KDUG ENDING AROUND 10Z.                 
OTHERWISE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS SE AZ THE REST OF                 
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA VICINITY KDUG AND            
KOLS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS              
REST OF TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN WLY 5-15 KTS WITH FEW             
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT             
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
$$                                                                              
WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON                                                              
</pre> az                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ                                             
221 PM MST TUE JUN 24 2008                                                      
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA                  
FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                             
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE            
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN DAYTIME HIGH               
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE THEY REBOUND             
AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND. ALSO...A SLOW INCREASE IN MEXICAN MOISTURE IS            
EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF ARIZONA...RESULTING IN A SLIGHT               
CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.                      
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
BY MID DAY...TEMPERATURES AROUND THE CWA WERE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW              
THOSE FROM 24 HOURS AGO...WHILE THE DEW POINTS WERE A MIXED BAG.                
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD DEVELOPMENT NEVER HAD A CHANCE TO FORM OVER THE               
MOUNTAINS...AND VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED FLAT CUMULUS SOUTHEAST OF A              
CASA GRANDE TO SHOW LOW LINE. LATEST RUC PUT THE CENTER OF THE UPPER            
HIGH NEAR CENTRAL SONORA...AND RUNNING TO THE NORTHEAST. GFS AND NAM            
ALSO HAD A SIMILAR PATTERN OVER MEXICO...BUT NAM HAD A WEAK TROUGH              
NEAR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY.                                   
SHORT TERM MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES THE RATHER DRY PATTERN FOR MOST OF            
OUR CWA. THE ONE AREA THAT LOOKS A BIT MORE PROMISING THAN                      
OTHERS...IS ZONE 24. THIS IS THE REGION WHERE THE 850-700MB MOISTURE            
INCREASE TRYS TO MATERIALIZE. IN FACT...AT 700MB...DEW POINTS SURGE             
UPWARD TO ALMOST 2C BY EARLY THURSDAY. WE LIKE THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER              
PRECIP WATER VALUES THAT ECMWF SUGGEST...AND LATER SHIFTS MAY WANT              
TO BE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH REGARD TO THE POPS IN THAT AREA.               
INTERESTING TO NOTE THE LATEST WRF TRENDS THE SURFACE DEW POINTS                
UPWARD...ALTHOUGH THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE THURSDAY MORNING             
SURGE IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR INSERTING THUNDERSTORMS FOR PHOENIX.                 
THUS...THE FOCUS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY WHERE THERE                
WILL BE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TSTMS.                 
TODAYS TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE WARMER THAN WED/THURSDAY...BUT               
WITH THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTING NORTHWARD FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY                
NEXT WEEK THE MAX TEMPS WILL REBOUND ONCE AGAIN. GFS MOS CALLS FOR              
ABOUT 111F ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN PHOENIX.                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
NO AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH AT LEAST 18 UTC WEDNESDAY.                         
KPHX/KIWA...                                                                    
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO               
THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA...AS WELL AS THE                 
DESERTS TO THE SOUTHEAST. CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN OR             
NEAR KPHX/KIWA ARE ZERO...WITH A LESS THAN 10% CHANCE OF OUTFLOW                
FROM DISTANT STORMS LEADING TO ANY WIND SHIFTS OR BLOWING DUST. THE             
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA WILL             
INCREASE WED...AND AGAIN THU...AFTERNOON/EVENINGS.                              
KYUM/KIPL/KBLH...                                                               
CONTINUED DRY WESTERLY FLOW WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS AROUND 22KTS TODAY             
AND WED BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 22-03UTC.                                          
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.                               
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
AN INCREASE IN LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER MAINLY SOUTHEAST                  
ARIZONA IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THERE                
INTO THIS EVENING. THERE IS A VERY REMOTE POSSIBILITY OF GUSTY WINDS            
FROM DISTANT THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS                 
EVENING. MOISTURE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LEADING TO A SLIGHT             
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL                
ARIZONA WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE STORMS WILL BRING LITTLE            
IF ANY PRECIP BUT IF THEY FORM...THEY WILL BE EFFECTIVE AT PRODUCING            
STRONG WINDS CAPABLE OF SPREADING INTO THE LOWER DESERTS. OTHERWISE             
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER                    
TEENS... ESPECIALLY IN LA PAZ AND EASTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTIES. ABOVE             
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.                      
&&                                                                              
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AZ...NONE.                                                                      
CA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT                          
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX                                                             
DISCUSSION...SIPPLE                                                             
AVIATION...WANEK                                                                
FIRE WEATHER...AJ                                                               
</pre> az                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
357 AM MDT TUE JUN 24 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)                                                             
SIMILAR SET UP TODAY AS YESTERDAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING                   
THROUGH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITHIN RATHER FLAT UPPER RIDGE ALOFT.               
TWO FEATURES CAN BE SEEN IN WV PICS...ONE OVER THE 4 CORNERS                    
REGION...AND OTHER ENTERING SRN NV.  AS THESE MOVE EASTWARD EXPECT              
ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRING OVER THE            
MOUNTAINS SHORTLY BEFORE NOON...THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE SE PLAINS             
DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.  LIFT WITH THESE                    
FEATURES APPEARS WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY...AND AIR MASS LOOKS A TAD               
DRIER AS WELL...SO ONCE AGAIN MAIN THREAT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS UP TO             
55 MPH AND LIGHTNING.  HOWEVER WITH COVERAGE APPEARING TO BE LESS               
THAN PAST COUPLE DAYS...EXPECT DRY THUNDERSTORMS TO BE MORE ISOLATED            
IN NATURE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...WITH COVERAGE              
TOO LOCALIZED TO WARRANT A RED FLAG.  STILL COULD BE A LOCAL FIRE               
START THOUGH GIVEN FUEL ARE CRITICAL.  ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST                     
PLAINS...BOTH NAM AN RUC13 MIX OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE                
AFTERNOON.  THERE IS A NARROW RIBBON OF SOME 50 DEW POINTS IN THE               
NAM ACROSS THE FAR SE CORNER DURING THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING AS              
LOW LVL JET CRANKS UP ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.  COULD SEE SUFFICIENT              
CAPE IN THIS AREA FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM.  MAIN THREAT WOULD              
BE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL TO AROUND 3/4 INCH IN DIAMETER.  DEEP LAYER             
SHEARS LOOK A BIT WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY...SO STORMS WILL BE RATHER              
PULSEY.  ELSEWHERE...GUSTY WINDS AND LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL                      
EXPECTED.  MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.                            
TONIGHT...SOME CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN                   
COUNTIES IN PROXIMITY TO LOW LVL JET THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER                      
MIDNIGHT. NAM AND GFS HAVE BEEN OVERDOING QPF DOWN THERE PAST                   
FEW NIGHTS...WITH CONVECTION MORE LIKELY TO SET UP FARTHER SOUTH                
OR EAST. THUS WILL MAINTAIN ONLY SOME LOW ISOLATED POPS IN THE SE               
CORNER UNTIL 09Z. -KT                                                           
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)                                                      
WX WED AND THU SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW DAYS IN THAT WE                
WILL SEE MOSTLY LOTS OF VIRGA OVER MOST AREAS DURING THE                        
AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF ACCUM PRECIP OVER THE FAR                   
EASTERN PLAINS. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM...WITH HIGHS WELL                
INTO THE 90S ON THE PLAINS WITH 80S OVER THE HIGHER TERAIN.                     
FRIDAYS WX WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE FRONT MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION.            
BASED ON CURRENT SIMULATIONS...BELIEVE BOUNDARY WILL NOT GET INTO               
THE REGION UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST. WITH THE W FLOW                
INCREASING A BIT IN THE LOWER LVLS ON FRIDAY...WE SHOULD SEE LESS               
CLOUDS OVER THE PLAINS/MTNS.                                                    
FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION BY VERY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IT                
DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH MSTR WITH IT SO I DO NOT ANTICIPATE                
MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW CLOUDS WITH IT ATTM.                                     
SATURDAY COULD BE A BIT INTERESTING. WE SHOULD HAVE INCREASED LLV               
MSTR OVER THE AREA AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. IF WE CAN GET ENOUGH FLOW             
ALOFT WE MAY BE DEALING WITH A ROTATING STORM OR TWO OUT ON THE                 
PLAINS. SATURDAY SHOULD ALSO BE A BIT COOLER. HOWEVER...IF IT                   
IS TOO COOL IN THE LLLVS....WE MAY NOT SEE ANY PRECIP OVER THE                  
REGION.                                                                         
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...THE HIGH AT MID LVLS BUILDS DIRECTLY OVER               
THE STATE. IF WE ARE FORTUNATE...WE MAY GET SOME MOISTURE TRAPPED               
UNDER THIS HIGH AND WE COULD GET SOME SLOW MOVING CONVECTIVE                    
SHOWERS...HOWEVER ATTM THIS HIGH DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE TOO              
"DIRTY". /HODANISH                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL             
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND                   
EVENING...PRODUCING VFR CIGS...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 55 MPH AND                     
LIGHTNING...BUT LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL.  FARTHER EAST NEAR THE CO/KS             
BORDER...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONGER...WITH THE                     
POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...LOCALIZED HAIL UP TO 3/4                
INCH IN DIAMETER...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. THUNDERSTORMS                   
WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES. WINDS WILL                
FOLLOW NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NEAR                       
THUNDERSTORMS WHERE ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED.                       
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
31/34                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
941 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT              
AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THESE                
FEATURES WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY MORNING. A               
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS DURING              
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. HIGH             
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK IN FOR FRIDAY...HOWEVER MORE                   
INCLEMENT WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND.                                  
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...                                     
QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS IN TEMPS AND                         
DEWPOINTS...WHICH HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING METMOS VALUES QUITE NICELY                
THUS FAR THIS EVENING. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE              
AHEAD OF DEVELOPING MCS ACROSS OHIO...WHICH HAS CLOUD TOPS COOL                 
CLOSE TO -70 C OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS OVER WESTERN OHIO. MUCH OF               
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CURVE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...AS THE ACTIVITY             
WILL LIKELY FOLLOW THE THICKNESS PATTERN. HOWEVER...BOTH THE LATEST             
NAM12 AND RUC13 DATA SHOW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/ELEVATED T-STORM                   
ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP TO NORTH OF THIS MCS ACROSS SOUTHERN                        
ONTARIO...AND THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET            
EVIDENT ON THE KDTX AND KBUF 00Z SOUNDINGS. THIS LOOSELY ORGANIZED              
ACTIVITY WILL EVENTUALLY TRAVERSE NEW YORK STATE FOR THE SECOND HALF            
OF THE OVERNIGHT AND COULD BEGIN IMPACTING THE WESTERN ZONES PRIOR              
TO SUNRISE...SO HAVE INCLUDED CHC POPS IN THESE AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR            
THIS. HAVE KEPT MINS ALONE...AS OUR CURRENT FORECAST LOWS SEEM TO BE            
IN LINE WITH LATEST STATISTICAL PROG NUMBERS.                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...                         
SEVERAL UNCERTAINTIES EXIST REGARDING THE FORECAST FOR THUR. THE                
MAIN QUESTION FOR THE MORNING HOURS WILL INEVITABLY BE HOW THE MCV              
EVOLVES. IF A WIDESPREAD RAIN SHIELD FORMS...THIS COULD STABILIZE               
THE ENVIRONMENT FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE DAY. FOR NOW WILL                   
MENTION LIKELY POPS SOUTH OF ALBANY...WITH HIGH CHANCE NORTHWARD.               
BOTH NAM/GFS SUGGESTING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR A CONVECTIVE                
COMPLEX ASSOC WITH THE MCV TO MOVE THROUGH WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN              
AREAS. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THUR AFTERNOON             
INTO THE EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER THIS THREAT IS CONDITIONAL.                    
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH DE-STABILIZATION               
CAN OCCUR AFTER THE INITIAL MCV OR WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THIS FEATURE             
MOVES THROUGH. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE TO               
ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON TIME             
FRAME TO ALLOW FOR SBCAPE VALUES TO EXCEED 1000 J/KG. SHOULD THIS               
OCCUR...OTHER PARAMETERS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR STORMS TO BECOME                  
SEVERE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE                       
DAY...AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE WHICH                 
WOULD SUPPORT BOWING SEGMENTS AND ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS.                 
ALSO...THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER ILLINOIS EVEN IN A WEAKENED                
STATE MAY BE A FACTOR AND PROMOTE FORCING...AS WELL AS A HINT OF A              
SURFACE TROF MOVING THROUGH. THIS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH               
INSTABILITY CAN BUILD THOUGH. SPC HAS AREA IN SLIGHT RISK...AND WILL            
MENTION THREAT IN HWO.                                                          
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...DUE TO LOSS OF               
DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. WILL KEEP                   
FORECAST DRY OVERNIGHT THUR THROUGH FRI FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. NAM               
HINTING AT A WEAK BOUNDARY POSSIBLE GENERATING ENOUGH LOW LEVEL                 
CONVERGENCE FOR ISOLD STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. OTHERWISE IT                
WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH AIR MASS IN WAKE OF THURSDAY/S SYSTEM EVEN              
WARMER...AND WITH WESTERLY FLOW ENHANCING DOWNSLOPE POTENTIAL IN                
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED VALLEYS.                                                   
YET MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IN STORE FOR LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...AS            
A MORE SIGNIFICANT AND SLOWER MOVING WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE             
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. WILL MENTION HIGH CHANCE POPS STARTING                 
EARLY SAT MORNING...LASTING THROUGH THE DAY. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS              
TO HOW FAR NORTH THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH            
THE POTENTIAL FOR ROBUST CONVECTION IN THE WARM SECTOR...MAINLY FROM            
ALBANY SOUTHWARD AS IT SEEMS NOW. TEMPS WILL BE AFFECTED AS                     
WELL...WITH READINGS POSSIBLY ENDING UP EITHER COOLER OR WARMER THAN            
FORECAST.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                
QUITE AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SHAPING UP FOR                   
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN             
OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ATTEMPTING TO MAKE A RUN AT THE REGION                
WHILE A DEEP CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT                 
LAKES. HAVE KEPT POPS AT LIKELY FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR                   
EXPECTED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DECENT                  
AMOUNT OF UNI-DIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR /AROUND 30 KTS/...BIGGEST            
THREAT WITH CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY BE HEAVY RAINFALL. GEFS PWATS              
LOOKS TO BE 1-2 STDS ABOVE NORMAL...AND ALONG WITH A DEEP WARM LAYER            
(FRZ LEVEL AROUND 14000 FT)...COULD EXPECT SOME VERY HEAVY RAINFALL             
RATES. OCCLUDED FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY                  
NIGHT...SO HAVE TAPERED POPS DOWN FROM LIKELY DOWN TO CHC AFTER 00Z             
MONDAY.                                                                         
SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS REGARDING THE                
PATTERN FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH FASTER WITH             
LIFTING OUT AND WEAKENING THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES                    
AREA...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN LAKES                 
RIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVEN WHILE THE ECMWF WEAKENS THE                    
CUTOFF...IT STILL KEEP A RATHER LARGE TROUGH SITTING OVER THE                   
EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE               
GENERALLY GONE WITH HPC GUIDANCE WHICH FAVORS THE ECMWF IDEA. CAN               
EXPECT SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION DUE TO THE COLD POOL ALOFT AND DAYTIME            
HEATING THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. 850 TEMPS WILL BOTTOM              
OUT TO AROUND 10 DEGREES C ON MONDAY...AND SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGHOUT            
THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP HIGHS RATHER COOL ON MONDAY WITH UPPER 60S             
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS...ALTHOUGH MAX               
TEMPS SHOULD IMPROVE SEVERAL DEGREES EACH DAY DURING THE WEEK AS                
HEIGHTS SLOWLY IMPROVE.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                      
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION DURING MUCH             
OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING. THE ONLY                 
EXCEPTION MAY BE AT KGFL...WHERE TEMPS DROPPING OFF QUICKLY MAY                 
COMBINE WITH THE LOCAL TERRAIN...LIGHT WINDS...AND NEARBY MOISTURE              
SOURCES OFF LAKE GEORGE AND THE UPPER HUDSON TO ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT            
MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP AT TIMES AFTER 07Z. JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE...AN              
AREA OF SHOWERS...AND EVEN SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...WILL MOVE              
ACROSS THE EASTERN NY TERMINALS. THIS COULD TEMPORARILY DROP VSBYS              
TO HIGH END MVFR LEVELS...ALTHOUGH CIGS SHOULD STAY VFR MUCH OF THE             
TIME. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY MID TO LATE                            
MORNING...ALTHOUGH SCT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD REDEVELOP ONCE            
AGAIN FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON...CAUSING BRIEF LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS.              
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS                  
INCREASING FOR 5-10 KTS BY THURSDAY AFTN.                                       
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
FRI...VFR...ISOLD PM -SHRA/TSRA KALB SOUTH.                                     
SAT...VFR/MVFR...CHC PM SHRA/TSRA.                                              
SUN-MON...MVFR/IFR...CHC SHRAS/TSRAS.                                           
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT              
AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THESE                
FEATURES WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY MORNING. A               
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS DURING              
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD               
BACK IN FOR FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER.                                            
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 85 AND 100 PERCENT                  
TONIGHT...WITH VALUES ON THURSDAY ONLY DROPPING TO BETWEEN 50 AND 65            
PERCENT DUE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS            
AND THUNDERSTORMS.                                                              
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5              
TO 10 MPH THURSDAY MORNING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN             
THE DAY AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH.                                         
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
A WARM FRONT AND PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS AND                  
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE                
SOME BRIEF DOWNPOURS IMPACTING POORLY DRAINED AREAS...AND SMALL                 
STREAMS. LOCALIZED RAINFALL WILL RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A HALF INCH.             
A VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK             
AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT DRIFTS THROUGH THE REGION...PROVIDING A             
CONSTANT FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL EXIT               
OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. MAIN STEM RIVERS               
SHOULD BE FINE...BUT ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH              
TUESDAY COULD PRODUCE A QUICK COUPLE INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH SOME             
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS POTENTIALLY OVER 2 INCHES THROUGH THE MULTI DAY               
EPISODE. RURAL/URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL HAVE TO BE                  
MONITORED WITH REPEATED CONVECTION IN SIMILAR AREAS.                            
&&                                                                              
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
MA...NONE.                                                                      
VT...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...JPV                                                                  
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS                                                              
SHORT TERM...JPV                                                                
LONG TERM...FRUGIS                                                              
AVIATION...FRUGIS                                                               
FIRE WEATHER...JPV                                                              
HYDROLOGY...NAS                                                                 
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
251 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CURRENTLY-TODAY...TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ANALYZED BY TAFB VICINITY             
EASTERN CUBA AND SOUTHWARD WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH WESTWARD IN                    
TRADE WIND BELT OVER THE CARIBBEAN. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITH AXIS                 
JUST NORTH OF CANAVERAL WILL CONTINUE TO NUDGE NORTHWARD AS TROUGH              
WEAKENS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEVELOPING                
LIGHT ONSHORE GRADIENT FLOW AND KEEP THE LOW LEVELS MOIST. WATER                
VAPOR LOOP/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF                  
PRODUCING A MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE YUCATAN ACROSS THE FLORIDA                  
PENINSULA.                                                                      
THIS MOIST ONSHORE FLOW REGIME FAVORS NIGHT/MORNING CONVECTION ALONG            
THE COAST WITH AFTERNOON STORMS SHIFTING TO THE INTERIOR AND WEST               
COAST.  THERE HAS BEEN JUST A LITTLE CONVECTION AROUND GRAND BAHAMA             
EARLY THIS MORNING SO HAVE LOWERED COASTAL POPS CONSIDERABLY FROM               
OUR CURRENT 60-70 PERCENT VALUES. THE LATEST MOS POPS ARE ONLY                  
AROUND 40 PERCENT AREAWIDE. THIS SEEMS TOO LOW FOR THE INTERIOR                 
SINCE MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN QUITE COOL (MINUS                  
9-10 DEGREES AT 500 MB). NEVERTHELESS...WILL ONLY GO A LITTLE                   
ABOVE MOS POPS FOR THE INTERIOR.                                                
THINK THAT THE STRONGEST BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WILL SHIFT FURTHER               
WEST TODAY AS EAST COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHES ACROSS THE PENINSULA A               
LITTLE QUICKER THAN YESTERDAY. GREATEST CHANCE FOR STRONG-SEVERE                
STORMS SHOULD BE IN THE FAR INTERIOR NORTHWEST.                                 
TONIGHT...ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE WEAK SO THE PROSPECTS FOR CONVECTION             
ALONG THE COAST WILL BE LOW AND MAINLY IN THE SOUTH.  EXPECT EVENING            
CONVECTION WILL MAINLY SHIFT INTO WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA. THEREFORE               
WILL ONLY CARRY AN AREAWIDE 20 PERCENT POP.                                     
THU-TUE...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC            
(SARGASSO SEA) ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF ON              
THURSDAY DROPS DOWN TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA SUNDAY AND REMAINS SOUTH OF             
THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A COOL FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS                 
THE DEEP SOUTH. POSITION OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL KEEP WINDS OUT OF               
THE SOUTHWEST FROM CAPE CANAVERAL NORTHWARD AND ONSHORE SOUTH OF                
THE CAPE THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN UNIFORMLY SOUTHWEST/OFFSHORE                  
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WITH AN OFFSHORE FLOW PINNING STORMS TO THE                 
EAST COAST FEEL THAT A 30 POP EVENING POP MORE APPROPRIATE FOR THE              
COASTAL AND NEARSHORE WATERS MONDAY/TUESDAY RATHER THAN THE                     
STOCK/STANDARD 20 PERCENT/ISOLATED EARLY EVENING STORMS. DAYTIME                
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THEIR CLIMO VALUES UPPER 80S/LOWER               
90S BEFORE SKIES CLOUD OVER WITH MID/UPPER CLOUDINESS FROM THE                  
STORMS.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...SIMILAR PATTERN TO YESTERDAY EXCEPT THAT SEA BREEZE WILL            
PUSH INLAND A LITTLE FASTER. HAVE SHORT TEMPO GROUPS FOR INLAND                 
TERMINALS BUT STRONGEST STORMS THAT OCCUR DUE TO INTERACTION OF                 
EAST/WEST COAST BOUNDARIES SHOULD BE WEST OF THE TERMINALS...                   
EXCEPT MAYBE FOR KLEE. HAVE SHORT PROB30 GROUPS DURING THE EARLY                
AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST...BUT AGAIN LIKE YESTERDAY...THINK THAT               
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL DELAY HEATING SLIGHTLY AND CONVECTIVE                      
INITIATION SHOULD BE JUST INLAND OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS.                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...THROUGH TONIGHT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ONSHORE            
FLOW EXCEPT NEAR THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN THE NORTH WHERE WINDS              
SHOULD CONTINUE AROUND 5 KNOTS.  STILL SEA HEIGHTS SHOULD BE 3 FEET             
OR LESS.  EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO FORM ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH            
BUT COVERAGE NOT MORE THAN SCATTERED.                                           
THU-SUN...WITH SURFACE-700MB RIDGE AXIS LYING OVER THE AREA EXPECT              
LIGHT WINDS WITH A SEA BREEZE COMPONENT EACH AFTERNOON. SEAS SHOULD             
BE NO MORE THAN 4 FEET OFFSHORE.                                                
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DAB  91  71  88  72 /  30  20  50  20                                           
MCO  91  74  91  73 /  50  20  50  20                                           
MLB  89  75  89  73 /  30  20  40  20                                           
VRB  89  73  90  74 /  30  20  40  20                                           
&&                                                                              
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
AM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...LASCODY                                                   
LONG TERM....WIMMER                                                             
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
148 PM EDT TUE JUN 24 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED NEAR OR JUST INLAND OF              
THE COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES                 
INTO THE REGION. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER                
THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE              
START OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE               
NORTHWEST FRIDAY...STALLING OUT JUST WEST OF THE AREA OVER THE                  
WEEKEND.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
UPPER TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE NEW ENGLAND STATES SOUTHWARD              
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE TODAY. WATER VAPOR                
IMAGERY INDICATES A SWATH OF DRY AIR ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE                   
UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL WILL SUPPORT A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CAP OF 5               
TO 6 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. MODIFIED MORNING SOUNDINGS SUGGEST                 
THAT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE QUITE LIMITED BY THIS DRIER AIR               
AND WEAK WIND FIELDS. UPPER RIDGING WILL ALSO BE GRADUALLY                      
REBUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST...LIMITING ANY FORCING MECHANISM TO               
THE SEABREEZE. OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS SUGGEST THAT              
THE SEABREEZE WILL BE PINNED TO THE COAST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE               
DAY.                                                                            
GFS...NAM AND LOCAL WRF DO NOT SHOW PRECIP DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON           
AS A RESULT OF THE PATTERN CHANGE. ONLY RUC INDICATES SOME ISOLATED             
CONVECTION INITIATING ALONG THE SEABREEZE LATER TODAY. THERE WILL               
BE MODERATE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MODELS SHOWING CAPE               
VALUES UP TO 2800 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES DOWN TO -5. IF THE CAP                
CAN BE BROKEN...THEN THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR              
VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE WITH LITTLE ORGANIZATION                
ALONG THE PINNED SEABREEZE. HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP POPS BELOW 15                  
PERCENT AND HANDLE ANY SHORT-LIVED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WITH SHORT                
TERM FORECASTS.                                                                 
ONGOING FORECAST HIGHS LOOK ON TRACK WITH LATEST GUIDANCE AND                   
THICKNESS VALUES. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S             
AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE.                                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...                       
MAINLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST TONIGHT...AS WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY                 
LIGHT AND SKIES MAINLY CLEAR. WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND                      
MIXING...DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES INLAND SHOULD FAIRLY QUICKLY RISE                
BACK INTO THE 60S THIS EVENING.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                        
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OVER OR JUST INLAND FROM THE                
COAST WILL NOW BEGIN TO GRADUALLY LIFT N AS A WARM FRONT WED-THU. IN            
THE MEANTIME...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLIDE E OVER THE AREA...WITH            
ITS ELONGATED CENTER STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL GA TO THE GA COAST. THE            
WRF DEPICTS SOME AFTN CONVECTION WELL INLAND ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WED           
AFTN BUT AM NOT INCLINED TO BUY INTO THAT SOLUTION WITH RIDGING ALOFT           
LEADING TO FAIRLY GOOD CAPPING AND A MOISTURE COLUMN NOT QUITE AS               
DEEP AS IN PAST DAYS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE /10 PERCENT/             
THAT CONVECTIVE STORMS COULD BREAK ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...COVERAGE              
WILL BE SO SPARSE IF ANYTHING DOES BREAK OUT SO AM PREFERRING TO                
KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST ATTM. WILL ADMIT THAT THE WRF HAS               
PERFORMED QUITE WELL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH THE CONVECTION IN              
PINPOINTING LOCATION/TIMING...SO THIS BEARS WATCHING.                           
AS THE FRONT LIFTS N THU...SFC HIGH PRES WILL CENTER ITSELF OVER THE            
ATLC ALONG WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...MAKING FOR A              
DEEPER SLY RETURN FLOW AND MOISTURE INCREASING FROM S TO N.                     
ANTICIPATING THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE...THIS WOULD LEAD TO ISOLD-SCT              
CONVECTION THU AFTN AND EVE. GIVEN THE DEEPER MOISTURE FURTHER S                
ALONG WITH A WEAKER CAP AND HINTS OF A LEE SIDE SFC TROUGH...AM                 
THINKING THAT THE BEST CHANCES /ALBEIT ONLY 20 PERCENT/ FOR PRECIP              
WOULD BE CLOSE TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER WITH LESSER CHANCES GOING                  
N...INCLUDING AN UNMENTIONABLE 10 PERCENT NEAR THE CHARLESTON METRO             
AREA.                                                                           
A DISTINCT PATTERN CHANGE COMES STARTING FRI AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL            
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE UPPER PLAINS AND SHIFT E TO THE GREAT LAKES                
FRI-MON. AS THIS TROUGH DEEPENS...SO WILL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA DUE            
TO THE S-SW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE ATLC HIGH. IN ADDITION...               
THE LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL BE FIRMLY IN PLACE WHILE ANOTHER SFC                   
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH THE MID MISS RIVER VALLEY AND THE                
OH/TN RIVER VALLEYS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THE FRONTAL                   
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN TO THE NW OF THE AREA...A NOTICEABLE INCREASE              
IN WIND FIELDS WILL AID IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT               
EACH DAY. ADD IN THE EVER PRESENT DIURNAL SEA BREEZE TO THE MIX AND             
THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE TO HAVE ANOTHER WET WEEKEND. HAVE NUDGED              
POPS UP TO 40S FOR FRI-SAT WITH 30S THEREAFTER. OF NOTE IS THAT MEX             
MODEL POPS ARE APPROACHING 50...BUT DID NOT WANT TO MAKE SUCH A BIG             
JUMP ATTM.                                                                      
WITH THE AREA REMAINING RATHER DRY AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE                     
MAINTAINING ITS PRESENCE THROUGH THU...MAX TEMPS WILL PERSIST IN THE            
MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST. DEWPOINTS LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE MID 60S            
WED...LEADING TO HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S. HOWEVER...                 
DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO INCREASE ON THU-FRI...SO HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY               
ECLIPSE 100 FOR MANY AREAS ON THU. EVEN ON FRI...WITH MAX TEMPS IN              
THE LOWER 90S...HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY REACH NEAR 100 AS DEWPOINTS               
REACH ABOVE 70 WITHIN THE RETURN FLOW. MAX TEMPS DROP CLOSER TO 90              
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE CLOUD/RAIN COMPLICATIONS EXPECTED.                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                       
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS                
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW WITHIN           
A DRIER AIRMASS. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH AFTER 20Z...AS A                  
PINNED SEABREEZE DEVELOPS. CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS                    
OVERNIGHT SUGGESTS THAT SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD                  
BECOME TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION. ALL LATEST GUIDANCE                       
INDICATES A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN VSBY AT KCHS AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO                
HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR VSBYS BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.                 
LESS CONFIDENCE IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KSAV...SO HAVE KEPT                       
CONDITIONS VFR AT THAT TAF SITE.                                                
DAYTIME SCENARIO FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH                  
SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND SCATTERED                   
CUMULUS INCREASING OVER THE TERMINALS.                                          
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED               
INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN               
ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THAT DEVELOP FROM LATE THURSDAY THROUGH         
SATURDAY. GREATER CHANCE OF MVFR WEATHER IN CONVECTION ON SUNDAY.               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WIND DIRECTIONS GENERALLY FROM                
THE WEST...WITH SPEEDS HAVING DECREASED TO 15 KT OR LESS. WINDS                 
WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH SEABREEZE               
DEVELOPMENT. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE COASTAL                  
WATERS. WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE WORDING OF THE COASTAL               
FORECAST WITH THE MORNING UPDATE.                                               
WILL MAINTAIN ALL CONDITIONS BELOW SCA CRITERIA FROM THE MIDDLE                 
OF THIS WEEK THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS NO DISCERNIBLE                   
SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. THAT                   
BEING SAID...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW OVER THE                
WEEKEND AND STALL INLAND OF THE WATERS. SHOULD ENOUGH PINCHING OF               
THE GRADIENT OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...THEN WINDS MAY REACH                
ABOVE THE 15 KT AREA. THE OTHER FACTOR IS NOCTURNAL                             
SURGING...WHICH IS DEPICTED EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.                     
AGAIN...WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW SCA LEVELS BUT WINDS LIKELY WILL                  
REACH 15-20 KT AT TIMES. AS FOR SEAS...WILL CAP WAVE HEIGHTS AT 5               
FT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.                               
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ga                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
855 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008                                                      
.EVENING UPDATE OF PUBLIC FORECAST DISCUSSION...                                
WILL BE ISSUING AN EVENING UPDATE OF ZFP PACKAGE.  ONE CHG WILL BE              
TO UP DEW POINTS AS PER OBS AND FOLLOW WITH SLIGHT INCR IN FCST                 
OVERNIGHT LOWS.  LGT WSWLY SFC FLOW HAS ALLOWED DEW POINTS AT OR                
JUST ABOVE 70 DEG TO FILTER INTO WRN AND SRN PORTIONS OF FA.                    
OF GREATER CONCERN THOUGH...ARE POPS/WX.  WILL BE ADJUSTING                     
OVERNIGHT POPS TO CURRENT RADAR/SATLT TRENDS.  WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME             
HEATING...THREAT OF ISOLD TSTMS OVR FA HAS DIMINISHED.                          
HOWEVER...TSTM COMPLEX CONTINUES TO EVOLVE OVR IA.  LLVL WIND FIELD             
OVR NRN IL/NWRN IND IS FCST TO RMN UNFAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DVLPMT             
INTO FA AS WINDS AOB H85 ARE FCST TO RMN LGT WNWLY OVERNIGHT...THEN             
BEGIN TO BACK INTO SW ON THUR.  ALTHOUGH WIND PROFILES ARE NOT                  
CONDUCIVE TO MCS PROPAGATING FWD ACROSS NRN IL/NWRN IND                         
OVERNIGHT...AMS REMAINS QUITE UNSTABLE AND EXPECT SOME DISCRETE STMS            
TO FIRE ESEWD OF STNRY/BACKBUILDING COMPLEX OVR IA.  THEREFORE HAVE             
BUMPED UP POPS OVR SWRN PORTION OF FA FOR OVERNIGHT.  WILL KEEP CHC             
POPS RMNDR ARE FOR PRE DAWN HRS.                                                
MERZLOCK                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
247 PM CDT                                                                      
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS NEXT FEW                 
DAYS. FAIRLY STRONG MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORT MOVING THROUGH                    
CHICAGO AREA ATTM. EARLIER CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS LEFT A               
LOT OF LOW STRATUS WHICH HAS SEVERELY LIMITED INSOLATION AND                    
DESTABILIZATION OVER NORTHERN IL. BEST LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND                     
INSTABILITY IS WELL SOUTHEAST ACROSS PARTS OF N AND CENTRAL IN                  
BACK INTO CENTRAL IL. COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER FAR SE              
SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE DRY MUCH               
OF THE AREA TONIGHT. NAM INDICATES ANOTHER MCS DEVELOPING OVER IA               
AND MOVING INTO N AND CENTRAL IL LATE TONIGHT OR THU MORNING.                   
SATELLITE SHOWS ANOTHER CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT MOVING INTO NW                
IA ATTM...SO NAM SEEMS REASONABLE. LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD REFOCUS                 
FROM NORTHERN KS INTO NORTHERN MO LATE TONIGHT TO SUPPORT THIS                  
CONVECTION. MCS MAY BE DIMINISHING DIURNALLY AS IT GET INTO IL THU              
MORNING. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING FOR OVERNIGHT BUT CUT BACK TO              
30-40 PERCENT...WITH HIGHEST POPS IN S AND W PART OF FORECAST                   
AREA. BEYOND THU MORNING THINGS BECOME MURKY. PATTERN CONTINUES                 
THU...THU NIGHT...AND FRI WITH VERY WARM TROPICAL AIR MASS IN                   
PLACE. DEWPOINTS WILL BE AROUND 70 SO THIS IS SOME OF THE JUCIEST               
AIR OF THE SEASON. UPPER JET CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF              
STATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES...SO SHEAR IS NOT VERY STRONG OVER                  
THIS AREA...BUT INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS              
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. PRECIPITABLE WATER               
VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SLOW MOVING AND/OR              
TRAINING STORMS. THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING                 
EXISTS. THE QUESTION IS WHERE MCS BOUNDARIES AND SMALL SCALE SHORT              
WAVES WILL BE WHICH WILL AFFECT PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF                         
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS THU THROUGH FRI..BUT WILL CONTINUE FAIRLY                 
HIGH CHANCE OR LIKELY CATEGORY POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.                        
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS US/CAN BORDER AND WILL                     
EVENTUALLY FORM CUT OFF LOW OVER GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE                  
WEEK. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY                       
NIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO THE SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT. AS                 
UPPER LOW WOBBLES SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES PERIODS OF SHOWERY                
WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY              
A DRY AND MILD PERIOD THROUGH MID WEEK.                                         
ALLSOPP                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
658 PM CDT                                                                      
FOR 00Z TAFS...FEW CHANGES FROM 18Z FORECAST THINKING WITH                      
CONVECTIVE TRENDS/PROBABILITIES MAIN QUESTION NEXT 24 HOURS.                    
SHORT WAVE/MCV CLEARLY EVIDENT IN VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING OFF TO THE               
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH SUBSIDENCE                  
ACROSS FORECAST AREA IN WAKE OF THIS FEATURE. LOOKING AT A FEW ACARS            
ASCENT/DECENT SOUNDINGS FROM KORD APPEARS TO BE A WARM BULGE AROUND             
800 HPA CAPPING OTHERWISE WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...DESPITE VIS               
SATELLITE EVIDENCE OF LINGERING BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING/EARLY                   
AFTERNOON MCS REMNANTS. FARTHER TO THE WEST...CONVECTION DEVELOPING             
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK MID LEVEL                 
SHORT WAVE AND ALONG/AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS                   
WESTERN PART OF THE HAWKEYE STATE. SPC RUC MESOANALYSIS DATA                    
INDICATES IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IA AT THIS             
HOUR...WITH 4000-5000 J/KG OF MLCAPE SOUTH OF I/80 CORRIDOR.                    
PROFILER WINDS SHOW STRONGER LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW FARTHER WEST              
INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA/NEBRASKA...WITH MUCH WEAKER LOW LEVEL SUPPORT               
FARTHER NORTH/EAST. THUS EXPECT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT FROM AROUND               
KDSM SOUTHWEST/WEST TOWARD KOMA VCNTY...WHILE AREA OF LIKELY MORE               
ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN IA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. BEST LOW               
LEVEL JET/FORCING EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS NEB/SDAK/WESTERN IA WITH            
MCS PROPAGATION OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WHICH SHOULD KEEP THIS MAIN                
AREA OF CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.                            
HOWEVER...DESPITE WEAK SUPPORT FARTHER NORTH...NAM/GFS BOTH INDICATE            
ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY STILL ALLOW SOME WEAK                  
CONVECTION/REMAINS OF NORTHERN IA ACTIVITY TO ENCROACH ON FORECAST              
AREA LATE TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS TO OUR            
WEST THIS EVENING...THOUGH WITH LOW CONFIDENCE WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT            
VCSH MENTION AFTER ABOUT 09Z.                                                   
MODELS MAINTAIN IDEA OF ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE                 
FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH COLD FRONT                
SAGGING ACROSS IL/WI BORDER REGION DURING AFTERNOON. WHILE UPPER                
FORCING APPEARS TO REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT               
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY...WITH MLCAPE VALUES 2000-3500 J/KG               
ACROSS FORECAST AREA BY AFTERNOON. GFS/NGM INDICATE COMBINATION                 
FRONT/LAKE BREEZE MAY SAG ACROSS CHI AREA LATE AFTERNOON WHICH MAY              
BECOME FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH NAM KEEPS FRONT OFF            
TO THE NORTH THROUGH 00Z FRI. CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS             
TIME...THOUGH HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED PROB30 FOR TSRA THURSDAY                
AFTERNOON BASED ON MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY/VERY WEAK CAP.                      
AS FOR WINDS...WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD LOSE              
GUSTINESS AND BACK SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS BOUNDARY                
LAYER DECOUPLES. WEST/SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES                        
THURSDAY...PERHAPS BACKING MORE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON IN                   
RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST OVER PLAINS. SOME               
QUESTION REMAINS ABOUT LOCATION OF WEAK COLD/STATIONARY FRONT WHICH             
SETTLES NEARBY BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND POTENTIAL FOR IT TO COMBINE              
WITH LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN                 
EASTERLY COMPONENT TO SURFACE WIND DEVELOPING FOR KORD/KMDW...THOUGH            
CONFIDENCE FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME.                                             
RATZER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
200 PM...OVERALL FEW CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. LARGE HIGH                 
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST TONIGHT AND                     
THURSDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MN WILL MOVE                       
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES TONIGHT THEN ACROSS SOUTHERN                   
QUEBEC THURSDAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS                 
THE LAKES THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND               
VRB ACROSS THE LAKE DURING THIS TIME BUT A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW                  
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY                   
NIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE                
WHICH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES FRIDAY AND                
SATURDAY. THIS LOW THEN BROADENS AND WEAKENS AS IT REMAINS OVER                 
THE EASTERN LAKES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE A                   
PROLONGED PERIOD OF WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WESTERN LAKES                  
THROUGH MONDAY...THOUGH SPEEDS DON/T APPEAR TO BE TOO STRONG AT                 
THIS POINT. CMS                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
658 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
247 PM CDT                                                                      
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS NEXT FEW                 
DAYS. FAIRLY STRONG MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORT MOVING THROUGH                    
CHICAGO AREA ATTM. EARLIER CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS LEFT A               
LOT OF LOW STRATUS WHICH HAS SEVERELY LIMITED INSOLATION AND                    
DESTABILIZATION OVER NORTHERN IL. BEST LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND                     
INSTABILITY IS WELL SOUTHEAST ACROSS PARTS OF N AND CENTRAL IN                  
BACK INTO CENTRAL IL. COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER FAR SE              
SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE DRY MUCH               
OF THE AREA TONIGHT. NAM INDICATES ANOTHER MCS DEVELOPING OVER IA               
AND MOVING INTO N AND CENTRAL IL LATE TONIGHT OR THU MORNING.                   
SATELLITE SHOWS ANOTHER CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT MOVING INTO NW                
IA ATTM...SO NAM SEEMS REASONABLE. LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD REFOCUS                 
FROM NORTHERN KS INTO NORTHERN MO LATE TONIGHT TO SUPPORT THIS                  
CONVECTION. MCS MAY BE DIMINISHING DIURNALLY AS IT GET INTO IL THU              
MORNING. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING FOR OVERNIGHT BUT CUT BACK TO              
30-40 PERCENT...WITH HIGHEST POPS IN S AND W PART OF FORECAST                   
AREA. BEYOND THU MORNING THINGS BECOME MURKY. PATTERN CONTINUES                 
THU...THU NIGHT...AND FRI WITH VERY WARM TROPICAL AIR MASS IN                   
PLACE. DEWPOINTS WILL BE AROUND 70 SO THIS IS SOME OF THE JUCIEST               
AIR OF THE SEASON. UPPER JET CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF              
STATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES...SO SHEAR IS NOT VERY STRONG OVER                  
THIS AREA...BUT INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS              
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. PRECIPITABLE WATER               
VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SLOW MOVING AND/OR              
TRAINING STORMS. THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING                 
EXISTS. THE QUESTION IS WHERE MCS BOUNDARIES AND SMALL SCALE SHORT              
WAVES WILL BE WHICH WILL AFFECT PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF                         
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS THU THROUGH FRI..BUT WILL CONTINUE FAIRLY                 
HIGH CHANCE OR LIKELY CATEGORY POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.                        
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS US/CAN BORDER AND WILL                     
EVENTUALLY FORM CUT OFF LOW OVER GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE                  
WEEK. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY                       
NIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO THE SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT. AS                 
UPPER LOW WOBBLES SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES PERIODS OF SHOWERY                
WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY              
A DRY AND MILD PERIOD THROUGH MID WEEK.                                         
ALLSOPP                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
658 PM CDT                                                                      
FOR 00Z TAFS...FEW CHANGES FROM 18Z FORECAST THINKING WITH                      
CONVECTIVE TRENDS/PROBABILITIES MAIN QUESTION NEXT 24 HOURS.                    
SHORT WAVE/MCV CLEARLY EVIDENT IN VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING OFF TO THE               
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH SUBSIDENCE                  
ACROSS FORECAST AREA IN WAKE OF THIS FEATURE. LOOKING AT A FEW ACARS            
ASCENT/DECENT SOUNDINGS FROM KORD APPEARS TO BE A WARM BULGE AROUND             
800 HPA CAPPING OTHERWISE WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...DESPITE VIS               
SATELLITE EVIDENCE OF LINGERING BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING/EARLY                   
AFTERNOON MCS REMNANTS. FARTHER TO THE WEST...CONVECTION DEVELOPING             
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK MID LEVEL                 
SHORT WAVE AND ALONG/AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS                   
WESTERN PART OF THE HAWKEYE STATE. SPC RUC MESOANALYSIS DATA                    
INDICATES IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IA AT THIS             
HOUR...WITH 4000-5000 J/KG OF MLCAPE SOUTH OF I/80 CORRIDOR.                    
PROFILER WINDS SHOW STRONGER LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW FARTHER WEST              
INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA/NEBRASKA...WITH MUCH WEAKER LOW LEVEL SUPPORT               
FARTHER NORTH/EAST. THUS EXPECT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT FROM AROUND               
KDSM SOUTHWEST/WEST TOWARD KOMA VCNTY...WHILE AREA OF LIKELY MORE               
ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN IA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. BEST LOW               
LEVEL JET/FORCING EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS NEB/SDAK/WESTERN IA WITH            
MCS PROPAGATION OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WHICH SHOULD KEEP THIS MAIN                
AREA OF CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.                            
HOWEVER...DESPITE WEAK SUPPORT FARTHER NORTH...NAM/GFS BOTH INDICATE            
ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY STILL ALLOW SOME WEAK                  
CONVECTION/REMAINS OF NORTHERN IA ACTIVITY TO ENCROACH ON FORECAST              
AREA LATE TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS TO OUR            
WEST THIS EVENING...THOUGH WITH LOW CONFIDENCE WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT            
VCSH MENTION AFTER ABOUT 09Z.                                                   
MODELS MAINTAIN IDEA OF ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE                 
FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH COLD FRONT                
SAGGING ACROSS IL/WI BORDER REGION DURING AFTERNOON. WHILE UPPER                
FORCING APPEARS TO REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT               
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY...WITH MLCAPE VALUES 2000-3500 J/KG               
ACROSS FORECAST AREA BY AFTERNOON. GFS/NGM INDICATE COMBINATION                 
FRONT/LAKE BREEZE MAY SAG ACROSS CHI AREA LATE AFTERNOON WHICH MAY              
BECOME FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH NAM KEEPS FRONT OFF            
TO THE NORTH THROUGH 00Z FRI. CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS             
TIME...THOUGH HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED PROB30 FOR TSRA THURSDAY                
AFTERNOON BASED ON MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY/VERY WEAK CAP.                      
AS FOR WINDS...WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD LOSE              
GUSTINESS AND BACK SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS BOUNDARY                
LAYER DECOUPLES. WEST/SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES                        
THURSDAY...PERHAPS BACKING MORE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON IN                   
RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST OVER PLAINS. SOME               
QUESTION REMAINS ABOUT LOCATION OF WEAK COLD/STATIONARY FRONT WHICH             
SETTLES NEARBY BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND POTENTIAL FOR IT TO COMBINE              
WITH LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN                 
EASTERLY COMPONENT TO SURFACE WIND DEVELOPING FOR KORD/KMDW...THOUGH            
CONFIDENCE FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME.                                             
RATZER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
200 PM...OVERALL FEW CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. LARGE HIGH                 
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST TONIGHT AND                     
THURSDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MN WILL MOVE                       
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES TONIGHT THEN ACROSS SOUTHERN                   
QUEBEC THURSDAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS                 
THE LAKES THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND               
VRB ACROSS THE LAKE DURING THIS TIME BUT A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW                  
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY                   
NIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE                
WHICH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES FRIDAY AND                
SATURDAY. THIS LOW THEN BROADENS AND WEAKENS AS IT REMAINS OVER                 
THE EASTERN LAKES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE A                   
PROLONGED PERIOD OF WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WESTERN LAKES                  
THROUGH MONDAY...THOUGH SPEEDS DON/T APPEAR TO BE TOO STRONG AT                 
THIS POINT. CMS                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1254 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISSUED 955 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2008                                               
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS JUST OFF TO THE EAST... WITH THE REMAINS               
OF A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING INTO EAST CENTRAL MO THIS                      
MORNING. MOST INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS DIVING SWD. MOST INTENSE                    
INSTABILITY STILL OFF TO THE SW...UP THROUGH THE STATE OF                       
MISSOURI AND BACK INTO THE PLAINS. RUC MODEL HAS A HANDLE ON WHERE              
THE ACTIVITY IS THIS MORNING...AND PRETTY MUCH STALLS IT OUT IN                 
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISS RIVER VALLEY.               
NOT READY TO UP THE POPS JUST YET. WILL MONITOR FOR ADVANCEMENT OF              
THE FRONT EDGE... KEEPING FORECAST AND UPDATING FOR MORNING WORDING.            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISSUED 1250 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2008                                              
TROUBLESOME TAFS THIS TIME AROUND. IN THE SHORT TERM...HAVE ADDED               
TSRA IN THE TAFS FOR SPI AND DEC. KEEPING VCTS ELSEWHERE AS THE                 
ACTIVITY IS MOVING INTO A RELATIVELY STABLE AIRMASS. FOR THE                    
LONGER TERM...MODELS HAVE SCATTERED THUNDER ALL NIGHT. HAVE KEYED IN ON         
THE MOST LIKELY TIMES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PUSHED THE THUNDERSTORMS               
THROUGH BY EARLY MORNING. ENDING THE PRECIP BY 13Z MAY ACTUALLY BE              
A BIT OPTIMISTIC...BUT HAVE MAINTAINED VCTS AFTER 13Z IN LIEU OF                
INHIBITING ANY ONE PARTICULAR TERMINAL.                                         
HJS                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
ISSUED 325 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2008                                               
FORECAST CONCERN IS CONVECTION CHANCES THROUGH SAT AS SERIES OF                 
SHORT WAVES RIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST OVER TOP OF UPPER                  
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. 00Z SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE              
IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND USED A BLEND.                    
GUIDANCE TEMPS SIMILAR THROUGH THU AND USED A BLEND HERE TOO.                   
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.                                            
08Z/3 AM SURFACE MAP SHOWS 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER                  
GARY INDIANA AND PROVIDING FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVER              
CENTRAL/SE IL EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS WERE                     
SPREADING EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL IL. LARGE MCS WAS OVER CENTRAL AND              
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA INTO NE KS WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM CENTRAL                
IA INTO NE MO AN FAR NW IL AND DRIFTING ESE. TEMPS WERE IN THE                  
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WHILE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.                  
ALOFT THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WAS OVER QUEBEC AND THE APPALACHIANS                 
WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM TX/LA WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN                     
MEXICO. SHORT WAVES WERE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS WITH              
CLOSEST ONE TO IL OVER CENTRAL IA.                                              
MODELS TRENDING DRIER TODAY OVER CENTRAL/SE IL AS HIGH PRESSURE                 
DRIFTS EASTWARD OVER OH AND EASTERN KY BY SUNSET WITH SOME UPPER                
LEVEL RIDGING INTO IL. KEPT JUST 20 TO 30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND                
THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF A BLOOMINGTON TO EFFINGHAM LINE TODAY FROM                
WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION IN WESTERN IL AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY SUNNY.             
EASTERN IL SHOULD STAY DRY TODAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE DUE TO CLOSER               
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE/STRONGER SUBSIDENCE. WARMER HIGHS IN THE             
LOW TO MID 80S WITH 850 MB TEMPS WARMING NEARLY 2C TO 14 TO 16C.                
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH IL IN WARM AIR               
ADVECTION PATTERN AND WEAKER PART OF LOW LEVEL JET AS HIGH                      
PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY SUNRISE WED.                    
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND SHORT WAVE SHOULD DEVELOP A LARGE MCS                  
OVER SW IA/NW MO WHERE SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. THIS               
MCS TO WEAKEN AS ITS SCATTERED CONVECTION SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL IL              
LATER TONIGHT INTO WED. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WED WITH HIGHS IN                 
THE 85 TO 90F AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WITH SSW BREEZES.                        
CONVECTION CHANCES APPEAR TO SET UP BEST OVER IA AND NORTHERN                   
IL/IN WED NIGHT/THU WHERE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE. HAVE HIGHEST                
POPS IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE                    
STORMS NORTH OF PEORIA BUT BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS OVER IA/WI              
AND FAR NW IL. ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY THU WITH SSW                     
WINDS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/90F AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S.               
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.                                      
CONVECTION CHANCES APPEARS TO AFFECT AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF I-70                 
THU NIGHT/FRI WHERE SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THU                    
AFTERNOON AND THU EVENING. BUT BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS THEN                
IS OVER THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA. PER SPC DAY3 OUTLOOK...              
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY ACROSS THE CORN               
BELT/OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD               
OF A WEST-EAST ELONGATING/STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A POTENTIALLY              
VERY UNSTABLE/WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS WILL LIKELY EXIST ALONG/SOUTH               
OF THE FRONT...WITH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FURTHER AIDED BY THE               
POSSIBILITY OF ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED VORTICITY                      
MAXIMA. BENEATH ONLY MODEST MID LEVEL FLOW...SCATTERED MULTICELL                
STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL ARE LIKELY THURSDAY                
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MCS ACTIVITY AGAIN FOCUSED UP NORTH OF IA/WI                 
AND NORTHERN IL WHERE HEAVY RAIN ALSO POSSIBLE. VERY WARM AND                   
HUMID AGAIN FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/90F AND DEWPOINTS IN                
THE UPPER 60S/70F WITH SSW BREEZES. GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SIMILAR                
IN SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROF MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES                  
REGION THIS WEEKEND AND DRIVING A COLD FRONT SE THROUGH IL LATER                
FRI NIGHT AND SAT. THIS TO PRODUCE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND                 
THUNDERSTORMS. BOTH MODELS KEEP QPF NE OF CENTRAL IL SUNDAY CLOSER              
TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NE MI. HIGHS IN THE 80S THIS WEEKEND WHICH              
IS CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE.                                               
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
154 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2008                                                      
.UPDATE/AVIATION...                                                             
GRIDS/ZONES...WILL LET SCT POPS RIDE FOR THE TIME BEING FOR THE                 
AFTERNOON. AREA OF SHOWERS IS WORKING EAST WHICH WILL AFFECT                    
MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. BIG QUESTIONS                    
REMAINS IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER SUFFICIENTLY AND FAST ENOUGH              
TO ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE               
APPROACHING MCV. IR SAT SHOWING GENERALLY WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND                
NO REAL SIGNS OF ANYTHING TO KEY IN ON. POCKETS OF CLEARING JUST                
HEAD OF THE MCV HAVE ALLOWED A FEW AREAS TO CLIMB BACK TOWARDS 80.              
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS BUT NO FURTHER UPDATES ANTICIPATED              
ATTM PRIOR TO AFTERNOON PACKAGE ISSUANCE.                                       
AVIATION WISE...FIRST BATCH OF PRECIP HAS CLEARED BOTH SITES                    
LEAVING BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS AGAIN. HAVE WENT RATHER CONSERVATIVE              
AT BOTH SITES THROUGH 00Z WITH MORE OF A VCSH MENTION. PROXIMITY                
OF INITIAL PRECIP TO KSBN DID APPEAR TO WARRANT A BRIEF TEMPO                   
GROUP. TONIGHT MORE THAN LIKELY WILL BE DRY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA                
UNTIL TOWARDS MORNING WITH NEXT MCS MOVING IN. WILL KEEP HIGH AND               
DRY FOR NOW.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2008/                          
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT                                                    
VERY COMPLICATED FORECAST IN STORE FOR THE PERIOD. CONCERNS ON CLOUD            
COVER/CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES/AND STRENGTH OF MID LEVEL COOLING ARE               
ABOUND.                                                                         
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER MO/IL IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A MID LEVEL                 
IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED LLJ. THIS IMPULSE IS SLOWLY PUSHING                      
EAST TOWARD THE FA. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND INCREASED LL FLOW PER                
PROFILER DATA...UNDER STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS SUPPORTING            
SCT SHRA/TS DEVELOPMENT OVER NE IL. EXPECTING THIS AREA OF SHOWERS              
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE FA THROUGH MORNING.                      
TODAY...HAVE UTILIZED THE NGM FOR SYNOPTIC STRUCTURE AS THE                     
GFS/NAM/RUC ALL SUFFER GREATLY FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND OTHER               
BIAS ISSUES. EXPECTING THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE DEPICTED ON WATER VAPOR            
OVER SOUTHERN IA TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST INTO THE FA. ROBUST                        
CONVECTION/LATENT HEAT RELEASE UPSTREAM WILL FURTHER ENHANCE LL PV              
FIELDS AND HELP IN THE MAINTENANCE AND PROPAGATION OF THIS IMPULSE              
OVER THE REGION TODAY.  GROWING INSTABILITY PER MID LEVEL COOLING               
AND ADDED LL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT CONVECTION THROUGH MOST OF THE               
DAY...TRANSITIONING EAST THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO            
HIGHLY LIMIT SOLAR INSOLATION OVER NW THIRD OF THE FA...THUS                    
LIMITING INSTABILITY. BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE              
EAST IF ENOUGH SUN IS REALIZED...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT NEARLY 2000                
J/KG CAPE AND PULSE WIND/HAIL THREAT. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW              
AND CLOUD COVER MAY HIGHLY LIMIT TEMPS AND FEEL SEVERE WORDING IS               
NOT PRUDENT ATTM. TEMPS IN THE GRIDS ARE LIKELY STILL TOO WARM. HAVE            
LOWERED SOME ALREADY...AND THINGS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED MORE. IT IS            
ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT A MAJORITY OF THE FA MAY NOT SURPASS THE LOW             
TO MID 70S. LEAD SW WILL EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT. CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW            
MODIFIED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER IA/MN IS EXPECTED TO BE THE                      
INITIATION POINT OF NEW VIGOROUS CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.             
HAVE RETAINED POP MENTION FOR A POSSIBLE MCS PROPAGATING INTO THE FA            
TONIGHT. THETA-E RIDGING PER 305 K MIXING RATIO PROGS WOULD SUPPORT             
PROPAGATION OF THIS SYSTEM INTO THE REGION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE               
FOR TS RESIDING IN NW.                                                          
THUR...FLATTENING ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL SEND ANOTHER MID LEVEL                    
DISTURBANCE INTO THE REGION ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE             
NORTH. THIS FITS THE MCS/DERECHO PATTERN WELL FOR THE                           
AREA...ESPECIALLY WITH LL MOISTURE AND HEAT IN PLACE. HAVE RETAINED             
50 POP MENTION IN THE NORTH...TRENDING TO 30 SOUTH WHERE MID LEVEL              
WARMING/CAPPING MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...HAVE                
RAISED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES GIVEN SOUTHERLY/DEEP MIXED FLOW. H85                 
TEMPS AROUND 17C WOULD SPELL MID 80S EASILY FOR MOST OF THE FA.                 
LONG TERM...                                                                    
BRIEF RESPITE TO PNA PATTN ACRS NOAM WILL BREAK TWD SIG                         
AMPLIFICATION ONCE AGAIN BY NXT WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO SERIES OF                
FAST MOVING EMBEDDED SW/S WITHIN SEASONABLY STRONG WESTERLY FLW AND             
DEEP GULF OF AK STORM MOVING INTO WRN CANADA.                                   
DIFFICULT TO TIME SW TROUGHS AS SEEN W/INCONSISTENT MODEL                       
SOLUTIONS...ESP OP GFS AND LARGELY IGNORED IN FVR OF ECMWF WHICH                
RETAINED THE GREATEST PREV RUN CONTINUITY. MAIN STORY WILL BE THE               
DVLPMNT OF YET ANOTHER DEEP COLD CORE CUTOFF LOW ACRS THE GREAT                 
LAKES BY WEEKS END W/LIKELY DAILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVN FRI-MON BFR            
SYS OPENS AND FILLS. WILL STAY CLOSE TO PRIOR THINKING W/FEW TWEAKS             
TO POPS ACCOUNTING FOR PREFERRED DIURNAL CYCLE.                                 
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...CHAMBERLAIN                                                        
LONG TERM...HOLSTEN                                                             
AVIATION...FISHER                                                               
UPDATE...STEINWEDEL/FISHER                                                      
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
728 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2008                                                      
.UPDATE/AVIATION...                                                             
ZONE/GRID UPDATE FORTHCOMING TO INCREASE POPS NORTHWEST HALF TO                 
2/3RD TO CATEGORICAL FOR THIS MORNING FOR APPROACHING MCS. IR                   
CLOUD TOPS AND WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATE THE COMPLEX IS LIKELY                  
UNDERGOING A SLOW DECAYING PROCESS. HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF 30 TO              
40 KT LLJ STILL FEEDING IN...OBVIOUS MCV SHOWING UP ON RADAR AND                
SATELLITE DATA...ALL SUGGEST THAT COMPLEX SHOULD BRING SOME                     
RAINFALL TO AT LEAST THE NOTED AREAS FOR PART OF THIS MORNING.                  
WILL KEEP SE AREAS IN THE SCT WORDING FOR NOW WITH BULK OF                      
ACTIVITY REMAINING NORTH AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR                 
TRENDS ON COMPLEX AND UPDATE MORE IF NEEDED. THERE ARE SOME                     
CLUSTERS OF STORMS EMBEDDED YET WHICH WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY                
RAINFALL ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR MORE PER HOUR.                              
AVIATION WISE...UPSTREAM OBS SHOW GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS IN                   
TERMS OF CIGS/VSBYS IN MOST OF THE AREA OF PRECIP. AREAS THAT                   
EXPERIENCE STORMS ARE SEEING BRIEF DROPS TO MVFR CIGS. FOR NOW AT               
KSBN HAVE WENT PREDOMINANT VFR WITH A TEMPO BETWEEN 13 AND 15Z                  
BKN025 TO COVER ANY CONVECTION. AT KFWA HAVE KEPT VCSH FOR NOW AND              
SEE HOW THE AREA PROGRESSES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR 2. BEYOND 16Z NO              
CHANGES AS REMAINDER OF MESOSCALE SETUP REMAINS TOO QUESTIONABLE                
AT THIS POINT.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2008/                         
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT                                                    
VERY COMPLICATED FORECAST IN STORE FOR THE PERIOD. CONCERNS ON CLOUD            
COVER/CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES/AND STRENGTH OF MID LEVEL COOLING ARE               
ABOUND.                                                                         
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER MO/IL IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A MID LEVEL                 
IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED LLJ. THIS IMPULSE IS SLOWLY PUSHING                      
EAST TOWARD THE FA. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND INCREASED LL FLOW PER                
PROFILER DATA...UNDER STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS SUPPORTING            
SCT SHRA/TS DEVELOPMENT OVER NE IL. EXPECTING THIS AREA OF SHOWERS              
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE FA THROUGH MORNING.                      
TODAY...HAVE UTILIZED THE NGM FOR SYNOPTIC STRUCTURE AS THE                     
GFS/NAM/RUC ALL SUFFER GREATLY FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND OTHER               
BIAS ISSUES. EXPECTING THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE DEPICTED ON WATER VAPOR            
OVER SOUTHERN IA TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST INTO THE FA. ROBUST                        
CONVECTION/LATENT HEAT RELEASE UPSTREAM WILL FURTHER ENHANCE LL PV              
FIELDS AND HELP IN THE MAINTENANCE AND PROPAGATION OF THIS IMPULSE              
OVER THE REGION TODAY.  GROWING INSTABILITY PER MID LEVEL COOLING               
AND ADDED LL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT CONVECTION THROUGH MOST OF THE               
DAY...TRANSITIONING EAST THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO            
HIGHLY LIMIT SOLAR INSOLATION OVER NW THIRD OF THE FA...THUS                    
LIMITING INSTABILITY. BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE              
EAST IF ENOUGH SUN IS REALIZED...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT NEARLY 2000                
J/KG CAPE AND PULSE WIND/HAIL THREAT. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW              
AND CLOUD COVER MAY HIGHLY LIMIT TEMPS AND FEEL SEVERE WORDING IS               
NOT PRUDENT ATTM. TEMPS IN THE GRIDS ARE LIKELY STILL TOO WARM. HAVE            
LOWERED SOME ALREADY...AND THINGS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED MORE. IT IS            
ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT A MAJORITY OF THE FA MAY NOT SURPASS THE LOW             
TO MID 70S. LEAD SW WILL EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT. CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW            
MODIFIED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER IA/MN IS EXPECTED TO BE THE                      
INITIATION POINT OF NEW VIGOROUS CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.             
HAVE RETAINED POP MENTION FOR A POSSIBLE MCS PROPAGATING INTO THE FA            
TONIGHT. THETA-E RIDGING PER 305 K MIXING RATIO PROGS WOULD SUPPORT             
PROPAGATION OF THIS SYSTEM INTO THE REGION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE               
FOR TS RESIDING IN NW.                                                          
THUR...FLATTENING ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL SEND ANOTHER MID LEVEL                    
DISTURBANCE INTO THE REGION ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE             
NORTH. THIS FITS THE MCS/DERECHO PATTERN WELL FOR THE                           
AREA...ESPECIALLY WITH LL MOISTURE AND HEAT IN PLACE. HAVE RETAINED             
50 POP MENTION IN THE NORTH...TRENDING TO 30 SOUTH WHERE MID LEVEL              
WARMING/CAPPING MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...HAVE                
RAISED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES GIVEN SOUTHERLY/DEEP MIXED FLOW. H85                 
TEMPS AROUND 17C WOULD SPELL MID 80S EASILY FOR MOST OF THE FA.                 
LONG TERM...                                                                    
BRIEF RESPITE TO PNA PATTN ACRS NOAM WILL BREAK TWD SIG                         
AMPLIFICATION ONCE AGAIN BY NXT WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO SERIES OF                
FAST MOVING EMBEDDED SW/S WITHIN SEASONABLY STRONG WESTERLY FLW AND             
DEEP GULF OF AK STORM MOVING INTO WRN CANADA.                                   
DIFFICULT TO TIME SW TROUGHS AS SEEN W/INCONSISTENT MODEL                       
SOLUTIONS...ESP OP GFS AND LARGELY IGNORED IN FVR OF ECMWF WHICH                
RETAINED THE GREATEST PREV RUN CONTINUITY. MAIN STORY WILL BE THE               
DVLPMNT OF YET ANOTHER DEEP COLD CORE CUTOFF LOW ACRS THE GREAT                 
LAKES BY WEEKS END W/LIKELY DAILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVN FRI-MON BFR            
SYS OPENS AND FILLS. WILL STAY CLOSE TO PRIOR THINKING W/FEW TWEAKS             
TO POPS ACCOUNTING FOR PREFERRED DIURNAL CYCLE.                                 
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...FISHER                                                               
UPDATE...STEINWEDEL                                                             
SHORT TERM...CHAMBERLAIN                                                        
LONG TERM...HOLSTEN                                                             
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
416 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT                                                    
VERY COMPLICATED FORECAST IN STORE FOR THE PERIOD. CONCERNS ON CLOUD            
COVER/CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES/AND STRENGTH OF MID LEVEL COOLING ARE               
ABOUND.                                                                         
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER MO/IL IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A MID LEVEL                 
IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED LLJ. THIS IMPULSE IS SLOWLY PUSHING                      
EAST TOWARD THE FA. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND INCREASED LL FLOW PER                
PROFILER DATA...UNDER STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS SUPPORTING            
SCT SHRA/TS DEVELOPMENT OVER NE IL. EXPECTING THIS AREA OF SHOWERS              
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE FA THROUGH MORNING.                      
TODAY...HAVE UTILIZED THE NGM FOR SYNOPTIC STRUCTURE AS THE                     
GFS/NAM/RUC ALL SUFFER GREATLY FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND OTHER               
BIAS ISSUES. EXPECTING THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE DEPICTED ON WATER VAPOR            
OVER SOUTHERN IA TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST INTO THE FA. ROBUST                        
CONVECTION/LATENT HEAT RELEASE UPSTREAM WILL FURTHER ENHANCE LL PV              
FIELDS AND HELP IN THE MAINTENANCE AND PROPAGATION OF THIS IMPULSE              
OVER THE REGION TODAY.  GROWING INSTABILITY PER MID LEVEL COOLING               
AND ADDED LL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT CONVECTION THROUGH MOST OF THE               
DAY...TRANSITIONING EAST THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO            
HIGHLY LIMIT SOLAR INSOLATION OVER NW THIRD OF THE FA...THUS                    
LIMITING INSTABILITY. BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE              
EAST IF ENOUGH SUN IS REALIZED...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT NEARLY 2000                
J/KG CAPE AND PULSE WIND/HAIL THREAT. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW              
AND CLOUD COVER MAY HIGHLY LIMIT TEMPS AND FEEL SEVERE WORDING IS               
NOT PRUDENT ATTM. TEMPS IN THE GRIDS ARE LIKELY STILL TOO WARM. HAVE            
LOWERED SOME ALREADY...AND THINGS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED MORE. IT IS            
ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT A MAJORITY OF THE FA MAY NOT SURPASS THE LOW             
TO MID 70S. LEAD SW WILL EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT. CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW            
MODIFIED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER IA/MN IS EXPECTED TO BE THE                      
INITIATION POINT OF NEW VIGOROUS CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.             
HAVE RETAINED POP MENTION FOR A POSSIBLE MCS PROPAGATING INTO THE FA            
TONIGHT. THETA-E RIDGING PER 305 K MIXING RATIO PROGS WOULD SUPPORT             
PROPAGATION OF THIS SYSTEM INTO THE REGION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE               
FOR TS RESIDING IN NW.                                                          
THUR...FLATTENING ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL SEND ANOTHER MID LEVEL                    
DISTURBANCE INTO THE REGION ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE             
NORTH. THIS FITS THE MCS/DERECHO PATTERN WELL FOR THE                           
AREA...ESPECIALLY WITH LL MOISTURE AND HEAT IN PLACE. HAVE RETAINED             
50 POP MENTION IN THE NORTH...TRENDING TO 30 SOUTH WHERE MID LEVEL              
WARMING/CAPPING MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...HAVE                
RAISED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES GIVEN SOUTHERLY/DEEP MIXED FLOW. H85                 
TEMPS AROUND 17C WOULD SPELL MID 80S EASILY FOR MOST OF THE FA.                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
BRIEF RESPITE TO PNA PATTN ACRS NOAM WILL BREAK TWD SIG                         
AMPLIFICATION ONCE AGAIN BY NXT WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO SERIES OF                
FAST MOVING EMBEDDED SW/S WITHIN SEASONABLY STRONG WESTERLY FLW AND             
DEEP GULF OF AK STORM MOVING INTO WRN CANADA.                                   
DIFFICULT TO TIME SW TROUGHS AS SEEN W/INCONSISTENT MODEL                       
SOLUTIONS...ESP OP GFS AND LARGELY IGNORED IN FVR OF ECMWF WHICH                
RETAINED THE GREATEST PREV RUN CONTINUITY. MAIN STORY WILL BE THE               
DVLPMNT OF YET ANOTHER DEEP COLD CORE CUTOFF LOW ACRS THE GREAT                 
LAKES BY WEEKS END W/LIKELY DAILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVN FRI-MON BFR            
SYS OPENS AND FILLS. WILL STAY CLOSE TO PRIOR THINKING W/FEW TWEAKS             
TO POPS ACCOUNTING FOR PREFERRED DIURNAL CYCLE.                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../06Z TAFS/                                                          
AVIATION FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE SHRA/TS CHANCES AT SBN AND FWA.              
CURRENT TS COMPLEX IN MO/IL IS PUSHING NE AND IS EXPECTED TO ENTER              
THE FA BY 09-10Z SUPPORTED BY WAA. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO AT SBN                   
WHERE BEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY WILL BE FOUND. ONLY INCLUDED CB/VCSH            
MENTION AT FWA...DUE TO CONCERNS ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.                        
AFTERNOON PERIOD WILL BE A DIFFICULT FORECAST DUE TO CONCERNS ON                
CONVECTIVE INITIATION. QUESTIONS ON CONVECTIVE DEBRIS/STRENGTH OF               
MID LEVEL WAVE/AND BEST INSTABILITY WILL MAKE PIN POINTING TSRA                 
DIFFICULT. FELT BEST AVENUE AT THIS TIME IS TO RETAIN CB AND VCTS               
MENTION UNTIL BETTER TRENDS ARE ESTABLISHED. A SECOND ROUND OF                  
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE WED EVENING INTO THE NIGHT PERIOD AS A TS                
COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP OVER IA/MN AND PUSH SE.                                    
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...CHAMBERLAIN                                                        
LONG TERM...HOLSTEN                                                             
AVIATION...CHAMBERLAIN                                                          
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
336 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...                                                        
THE FORECAST TONIGHT IS QUITE COMPLEX AS THERE ARE SEVERAL FEATURES             
OVER/NEAR THE CWA.  CURRENTLY WE ARE QUITE UNSTABLE WITH 4000 J/KG              
OF CAPE OVER THE SW THIRD OF IA BUT SHEAR IS QUITE WEAK...GENERALLY             
20-25KTS OR LESS.  OVER THE NORTHWEST...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXISTS               
FROM A LOW IN NE MN.  THE FRONT EXTENDS INTO FAR NW IA THEN ALONG               
THE NEB/SDKTA BORDER.  THERE IS WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE              
FRONT BUT SO FAR IT HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO PRODUCE/SUSTAIN                        
THUNDERSTORMS.  ALOFT...THE FLOW IS WEAK AND THERE IS NOT A LOT OF              
SUPPORT.  HOWEVER...RUC ANALYSIS DOES INDICATE A COUPLE OF WEAK VORT            
CENTERS...ONE OVER NW IA...PROBABLY AIDING IN THE SHOWERS UP                    
THERE...AND ONE IN NORTHEAST KS MOVING INTO SW IA.  CAPE VALUES IN              
THIS AREA ARE EVEN HIGHER THAN IN SW IA AND THERE ARE NO                        
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING YET.  HAVING SAID ALL THIS...ANY ONE OF                
THESE FEATURES CAN TRIGGER STORMS TONIGHT AT ANY TIME.  THE LACK OF             
DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR IS THE PERPLEXING PART.                                    
MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE BETTER OVER MN CLOSER TO THE LOW.  I            
WOULD EXPECT DEVELOPMENT TO INITIATE THERE THEN TRAVEL DOWN THE                 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS EVENING.  I BELIEVE THE NAM HAS A GOOD HANDLE             
ON THE SCENARIO DEVELOPING THE PRECIP FURTHER SOUTH...WHERE THE THE             
FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SAG INTO THE HIGH CAPE AREA.  LATER TONIGHT A             
LLJ DEVELOPS AND THIS WILL PROBABLY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN                
MCS MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  WITH               
THE HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY OVER JUST WHERE INITIATION WILL BEGIN             
I HAVE PLACED CHANCE POPS OVER THE CWA FOR TONIGHT.  THE HIGHEST                
POPS STILL REMAIN NORTH BUT WITH FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE                  
SOUTH...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP DOWN THERE WILL ALSO PRODUCE VERY               
HEAVY RAINFALL.                                                                 
.LONG TERM /THU-WED/...                                                         
MOST ACTIVE PERIOD REMAINS WITHIN THE FIRST 60 HOURS OF THE FORECAST            
PERIOD. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY ONGOING AT THE START OF THE                
PERIOD AT 12Z THURSDAY. THE BIGGER SHOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A               
DEVELOPING MCS OVER WYOMING LATE THIS EVENING THEN ROLL THROUGH                 
SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT BEFORE REACHING NORTHERN IOWA DURING THE DAY             
ON THURSDAY. SOME SFC HEATING IS LIKELY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND THIS            
SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO DEVELOP FOR               
THE STORMS TO FEED ON. SEVERE STORMS ALONG WITH AREAS OF HEAVY                  
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT            
BEFORE THE PRIMARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVES ON FRIDAY. GOOD                     
INSTABILITY LIKELY AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH MIX LAYER CAPES OF 2000 TO              
2500 J/KG HOWEVER THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL PASS TO THE                 
NORTH. STILL ENOUGH SHEAR WILL REMAIN FOR SOME SEVERE MULTICELL                 
STORMS AND ISOLATED SUPER CELLS.                                                
THE WEEKEND WILL BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING                 
SLOWING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGING CYCLONIC                
FLOW TO IOWA. HAVE COOLED HIGH TEMPERATURES AND ADDED LOW POPS TO               
THE NORTHEAST FOR EACH AFTERNOON AS IMPULSES ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER            
LOW. COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL LEAD TO SOME                     
INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS. GRADUALLY WARMER NEXT WEEK WITH              
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVING TUESDAY NIGHT AND                
INTO WEDNESDAY.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...25/18Z                                                              
DIFFICULT FORECAST TODAY AS THE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE MOISTURE            
VERY WELL.  LOW PRESSURE OVER MN HAS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO NR            
NW IA THEN INTO SERN SDKTA AND NRN NEB.  THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY                  
CONSISTENT IN BREAKING OUT PRECIP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BUT                
WITH WEAK TO NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...CONVECTION WILL HAVE TO BE                
BASED LARGELY ON CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT.  ONCE THE STORMS START            
TO DEVELOP THEY SHOULD GO QUICKLY IN THE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WE ARE            
IN.  WE MAY NEED THE HELP OF THE LLJ TO GET THINGS GOING.  IN THAT              
CASE IT WOULD BE LATER THIS EVENING.  THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT               
THE STORMS MAY FIRE FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT IN WHICH CASE THE             
SOUTHERN TAF SITES WOULD ALSO BE AT RISK OF STORMS.  I HAVE LEANED              
TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION AS SAT PIX SHOWING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OVER               
SRN/CENT NEB.  MVFR COND W/ LCL IFR COND WL PREVAIL IN TSRA.                    
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LONG TERM...DONAVON                                                             
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...FAB                                                       
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
1139 AM MDT TUE JUN 24 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
1041 AM MDT TUE JUN 24 2008                                                     
MADE A FEW MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY TO FINE TUNE SKY              
AND WX GRIDS. PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL BE                         
PRECIPITATION CHANCES YET AGAIN. MODIFIED DNR...LBF AND DDC                     
SOUNDINGS WITH EXPECTED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INDICATE 1000-1500               
J/KG OF CAPE AND MINIMAL CINH ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST. ALTHOUGH               
SFC FEATURES ACROSS THE AREA REMAIN POORLY DEFINED...SFC                        
CONVERGENT AREA APPEARS BETWEEN GLD AND ITR WHICH MAY PROVIDE A                 
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. LATEST RUC SEEMS TO CATCHING ON TO THIS                   
FEATURE AS WELL...AND HAVE UPPED POPS TO SCT ACROSS WESTERN CWA.                
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY SO                 
CONFIDENCE NOT MUCH HIGHER THAN 30 PERCENT ATTM. IF THUNDERSTORMS               
DEVELOP...HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT FLOODING ACROSS                              
YUMA..DUNDY...HITCHCOCK AND CHEYENNE COUNTY WHERE 1-2 INCHES OF                 
RAIN FELL LAST NIGHT. WITH SUBSIDENCE AND SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT                  
COVERAGE CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY KIND OF HIGHLIGHT.                  
JRM                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
126 AM MDT TUE JUN 24 2008                                                      
PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL REVOLVE AROUND TEMPS               
AND THE DIFFICULTY OF PINPOINTING THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP.                  
FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING...SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD SET UP               
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL                   
ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS WHICH WILL HANG AROUND                 
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE MIXING OUT. WINDS WILL BECOME                  
SOUTHEASTERLY AS ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO IMPACT THE TRI                
STATE REGION LATE THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE                 
AND REMAINING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM MONDAY EVENING`S CONVECTION...CAN`T       
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. NOT EXPECTING NEARLY THE AREAL               
COVERAGE THAT WE SAW MONDAY EVENING HOWEVER AS BEST LARGE SCALE                 
FORCING FOR ASCENT REMAINS WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA.                              
STRONG THERMAL RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON                    
WEDNESDAY WITH H85 TEMPS REACHING THE LOW 30`S C OVER EASTERN                   
COLORADO PER THE 00Z/24 ECMWF. COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS PUSH THE               
CENTURY MARK. LEE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE              
PALMER DIVIDE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH COULD AID IN THE                        
DEVELOPMENT OF A MCS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA BY LATE WEDNESDAY                    
AFTERNOON. THIS COMPLEX IS FORECASTED TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER               
MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODELS TENDING TO                   
FAVOR THE NORTHEAST HALF AND HAVE TWEAKED POPS TOWARD THIS                      
DIRECTION.                                                                      
SIMILAR SITUATION SETTING UP THURSDAY BUT FORCING FOR ASCENT                    
APPEARS TO BE WEAKER SO WILL MAINTAIN ONLY LOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS               
FOR NOW. WITH H85 TEMPS MAINTAINING IN THE UPPER 20`S C...MADE                  
ONLY SLIGHT TWEAKS TO THE GOING FORECAST MAX TEMPS FOR THURSDAY.                
BROKEN RECORD FOR FRIDAY AS BOTH EC AND OPERATIONAL GFS MAINTAIN                
ESSENTIALLY ZONAL MEAN FLOW WITH YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH                   
MOVING INTO THE REGION BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS IS TYPICAL WITH             
THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...TIMING AND LOCATION OF PRECIP IS DIFFICULT               
TO DETERMINE A FEW DAYS OUT SO HAVE GENERALLY BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT              
CHANCE POPS OVER THE CWA. NO CHANGES WERE MADE BEYOND FRIDAY                    
NIGHT.                                                                          
FOLTZ                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
1139 AM MDT TUE JUN 24 2008                                                     
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDTIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH               
THE PERIOD. ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN                       
21-02Z...MAINLY NEAR KGLD. IF STORMS FORM...THEY SHOULD BE FAIRLY               
HIGH BASED WITH VARIABLE AND GUSTY WINDS BEING PRIMARY IMPACT.                  
JRM                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME                                             
1028 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL              
BOUNDARY MOVES DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS             
THE REGION TONIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT             
WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY AND TRACK ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.             
THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE               
OVER THE WEEKEND.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS HAVE REMOVED ANY                     
REFERENCE TO SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. CANADIAN                  
RADAR MOSAIC AND OBSERVATIONS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING ANY SHOWER                  
ACTIVITY WELL BACK ACROSS NORTHWEST QUEBEC PROVINCE. LATEST RUC                 
SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION AND KEEPS THE US DRY               
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.                                                         
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW                   
WILL THEN BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME                
SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE AREA TOWARD MORNING.                                    
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...                                
ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WX IS IN STORE THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN                       
CHALLENGES WILL BE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING S ACROSS THE CWA               
AND WAVE OF LOW PRES MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. CONCERNS                        
ARE...WHERE TO PLACE CONVECTION AND TRACK OF SFC LOW.                           
DECIDED ON A 33% BLEND OF THE SREF/GFS40 AND NAM INTO THURSDAY                  
EVENING AND THEN WENT W/THE SREF/GFS40 MATCHING THIS BLEND W/THE                
ECMWF AS SFC LOW TRACKS THROUGH CNTL MAINE AND NOT AS FAR N AS                  
THE NAM HAS IT ACROSS NERN MAINE.                                               
THEREFORE...PUSHED POPS UP TO LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL ACROSS MOST                
OF THE CWA INTO THURSDAY EVENING W/THE EXCEPTION OF THE COAST AS                
HIGH CHC POPS WERE USED. AIRMASS LOOKS STABLE ENOUGH ACROSS THE                 
NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA TO GO W/STRATIFORM RAIN W/AN ESE FLOW. FURTHER               
S ACROSS CNTL AND DOWNEAST AREAS...ADDED THE MENTION OF TSTMS                   
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS MDL SOUNDINGS                       
INDICATE HIGHEST INSTABILITY IN THESE AREAS. NEED TO BE AWARE OF                
HEAVY RAFL ESP WHERE CONVECTION OCCURS AS KIS ARE FCST TO PUSH MID              
30S...PWS TO BE AT 1.5 INCHES AND DECENT ESE INFLOW OVERRIDING THE              
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AREAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE A BLEND OF THE SREF/HPC                 
AND GFS WHICH YIELD ANYWHERE FROM .50-.75 INCHES ACROSS NRN AND                 
CNTL AREAS TO AROUND .25 OF AN INCH. HIGHER AMOUNTS OF COURSE CAN               
BE EXPECTED IN HEAVIER RAFL ESP IN CONVECTION. ADDED TSTMS AGAIN                
FOR CNTL AND DOWNEAST AREAS DUE TO PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND                   
30-35 KT MID-LVL JET PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THESE AREAS.                        
KEPT DAYCREWS THURSDAY MAXES AS THEY MATCH CLOSE TO LATEST                      
GUIDANCE NUMBERS. FRIDAY/S MAXES WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TO THE MID              
60S ACROSS NRN MAINE WHERE ELY FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND RAFL                   
LIMITING MUCH WARMING.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                          
GMOS WAS LOADED AND THEN ADJUSTED COMPARING IT TO THE LATEST                    
ECMWF AND GFS ENS.                                                              
BIGGEST CONCERN IS FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE LATEST ECMWF HAS NOW                  
BECOME MORE AGGRESSIVE W/BRINGING RAFL INTO THE CWA BY SATURDAY                 
NIGHT WHILE THE OPERATIONAL GFS40 HAS HIGH PRES DROPPING DOWN                   
ACROSS THE CWA. CONFIDENCE NOT THAT HIGH GIVEN SUCH A DISPARITY.                
HOWEVER...THE LATEST GFS ENS DOES SHOW SOME SUPPORT OF THE                      
OPERATIONAL GFS40. THEREFORE...DECISION WAS TO LEAN W/A DRIER                   
SCENARIO FOR SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY KEEPING CHC POPS ACROSS                 
THE SRN TIER OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRES RIDGE SHOWS              
SIGNS OF BREAKING DOWN AND SHIFTING E BY SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRES                 
IS FCST TO TRACK THROUGH WRN QUEBEC ON MONDAY BRINGING A FRONTAL                
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION W/INCREASING CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND                    
POSSIBLE TSTMS. GMOS POPS SHOWED 40% FOR THE CWA MONDAY INTO                    
TUESDAY AND ATTM SAW NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THEM. A MODEST                   
ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE TO THE TEMPERATURES ESP MINIMUMS AS CLOUDS AND              
SSW FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE HUMID AIRMASS TO RETURN.                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                     
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.                   
CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO IFR ACROSS THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT BUT                   
REMAIN VFR OVER DOWNEAST AREAS.                                                 
SHORT TERM: LOOKS LIKE IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS RIGHT INTO THURSDAY                  
NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS S. SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE                
LATER ON FRIDAY TO VFR AS THE FRONT SAGS FURTHER S AND SOME DRIER               
AIR RETURNS. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THE VFR LOOKS GOOD INTO THE                 
WEEKEND.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA TODAY AND TONIGHT.              
DRIER AIR WILL BRING GOOD VISIBILITIES TODAY.                                   
SHORTER TERM: NO HEADLINE ES FORESEEN ATTM. ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO            
THE WNAWAVE ESP LAST FEW PERIODS TO LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS BACK 1-2                 
FT. LOOKS LIKE SWELL GENERATION AS ESE FLOW SETS UP.                            
&&                                                                              
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ME...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NEAR TERM...DUDA/BLOOMER                                                        
SHORT TERM...HEWITT                                                             
LONG TERM...HEWITT                                                              
AVIATION...BLOOMER                                                              
MARINE...BLOOMER/HEWITT                                                         
</pre> me                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
229 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS                   
EVENING...SHIFTING OFFSHORE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT                  
APPROACHES THE REGION ON SATURDAY.                                              
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
HIGH PRES OVER THE RGN WL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE WX TDA. DRY                      
AIRMASS...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND RISING HGTS ALLOW TEMPS TO BE A                
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YDA. WENT WITH NAM/FWC BLEND (BLO WARM MAV              
GUIDANCE)...YIELDING HIGHS TDA INTO LWR 90S FOR MUCH OF INTERIOR                
VA/NC (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW). COOLER U80S/ARND 90 AT                       
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE (L/M80S IVOF OXB-WAL). WITH DRY DOWNSLOPE                   
WINDS AND LOOKING AT MIXED LAYER RUC13 LOWERED DEWPOINTS IN THE                 
WEST TO LOWER 50S OTHERWISE MID TO UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS. ALONG THE               
COAST DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...                                  
HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFFSHORE ERY THU...ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO                     
STRENGTHEN. HIGHS EXPECTED AT LEAST IN THE MID 90S BOTH DAYS...WITH             
GUIDANCE AND LOCAL THICKNESS SCHEMES POINTING TWDS THU AS THE                   
WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. ONCE AGAIN APPLIED A MAV/FWC BLEND FOR               
MAX T...RESULTING IN MID 90S (WITH A FEW UPR 90S) INLAND                        
THU...L/M 90S INTO TIDEWATER AND COASTAL LOCALES (XCEPT IMMEDIATE               
COASTLINE). THESE VALUES ARE AGAIN JUST BLO MAV GUID...BUT ARE A                
FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN LOCAL TKNS SCHEMES WUD DICTATE. KEPT ISO                
WORDING FOR TSRA FOR BOTH AFTNS FOR SOME TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN               
CONVECTION. WHILE MIDLVL CAP APPEARS STRONG...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A              
FEW RENEGADE STORMS POPPING UP (PWATS INCREASE MODESTLY BY THU                  
AFTN). SPC HAS SRN HALF OF CWA IN GENERAL TSTM AREA FOR THU.                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                      
VRY WRM AND RATHER HUMID THRU THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY SLGT OR SML             
CHCS FOR SHRAS/TSRAS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THRU MON...DUE TO THE                 
APPROACH AND SLOW PASSAGE OF A COLD FRNT. THE BNDRY WILL LIKELY MOVE            
OFF THE CST DURING TUE...SO HAVE SLGT OR SML CHCS IN ERN CNTIES.                
ALTHO TEMPS MAY END UP WRMER...GOING WITH HI`S RANGING FM THE MID               
80S TO LWR 90S AT THIS TIME. MIN TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FM THE              
MID 60S TO LWR 70S.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                     
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY SURGE UP BAY TO AFFECT COASTAL SITES TONIGHT                
(ECG/ORF/PHF) WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS AT ORF. OTW...SMOKE FROM THE              
TWO ONGOING FIRES THE MAIN CONCERN INTO THE WEEKEND. LIGHT AND                  
VARIABLE WINDS THIS AFTN ARE KEEPING THE SMOKE PLUMES NEAR THE                  
FIRES. SURGE THIS EVENING SHOULD BRING PLUME TO PHF...THEN A                    
SWITCH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AFTER 04Z SHOULD BRING SMOKE TO ORF/ECG.          
CHANCE OF SUPER FOG AGAIN THUR MORN AT ECG/ORF...ESP IF WINDS/MIXING            
DIMINISH AND SKIES CLEAR TOWARDS 08Z.                                           
HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THE REGION...LIMITING CHANCES OF                      
PRECIP/KEEPING VFR CONDS...INTO SATURDAY. NEXT CHANCE OF                        
WIDESPREAD REDUCES AVN CONDS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AHEAD                
OF CD FROPA.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
SFC HI PRES RMNS OFFSHR AND IN CONTROL INTO THE WKND...RESULTING IN             
PREVAILING SSW FLO (AOB 15 KT). HAVE HOISTED SCA FLAGS FOR SRLY SURGE           
TONIGHT AS HIGH SLIPS OFFSHORE...WINDS ACROSS SRN CHES BAY TO GUST              
TO AROUND 20 KTS FROM 21Z TO 05Z. WK CDFNT APPROACHES FM THE NW                 
SAT NGT/SUN.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
CURRENT SMOKE PLUMES MOVING NORTH FROM THE FIRES OVER PARTS OF                  
HAMPTON ROADS AND INTO NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. LOOKING AT                     
TRAJECTORY FORECAST AND STREAMLINES SHOWS THE SEA BREEZES HOLDING               
THE SMOKE TO THE WEST UNTIL EVENING. BY TONIGHT WILL HAVE TO WATCH              
FOR MORE DENSE FOG FORMING WITH THE SMOKE TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES                
OVER LARGER AREAS. ISSUED NPW FOR DENSE SMOKE AS VISIBILITIES HAVE              
BEEN AROUND A MILE OR LESS IN SOME LOCATIONS.                                   
&&                                                                              
.CLIMATE...                                                                     
LOOKS LIKE A HOT FINISH FOR JUNE (WHICH HAS ALREADY BEEN HOT).                  
THROUGH THE 24TH...RIC AVG TEMP IS 78.2 F...AND ORF IS 78.3 F.                  
BASED ON CURRENT FCST FOR NEXT 6 DAYS...APPEARS AS IF 2008 WILL RANK            
AS EITHER 2ND OR 3RD WARMEST ALL TIME FOR RICHMOND AND 3RD OR 4TH               
WARMEST ALL TIME AT NORFOLK.                                                    
_______________5 HOTTEST JUNES (AVG TEMPERATURE)_______________                 
RANK........RICHMOND...........NORFOLK.........                                 
 1........79.2 F (1943)......80.1 F (1943)                                      
 2........78.8 F (1895)......79.5 F (1994)                                      
 3........78.4 F (1892)......78.8 F (1934)                                      
 4......**78.2 F (2008)**....78.5 F (1952)                                      
 5........78.1 F (1890)......78.48F (1989)                                      
OTHER NOTABLE POSSIBILITIES...                                                  
.RICHMOND...                                                                    
***AVG HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH WILL LIKELY BE                            
HIGHEST ALL TIME (90.0 F IN 1984 IS CURRENTLY THE HIGHEST).                     
***IF THE NEXT 6 DAYS (25TH-30TH) ALL HIT 90F (OR HIGHER)...WILL                
 THEN HAVE 20 DAYS OF 90+ THIS JUNE (WHICH WOULD TIE 1943 FOR THE               
 MOST).                                                                         
.NORFOLK...                                                                     
***AVG HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR MONTH HAS A CHANCE TO BE HIGHEST ALL                
TIME (88.8 F IN 1943 IS CURRENTLY THE HIGHEST).                                 
&&                                                                              
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EDT              
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632.                                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...MAM                                                                  
NEAR TERM...JAB/MAM                                                             
SHORT TERM...MAM                                                                
LONG TERM...ALS/TMG                                                             
AVIATION...BAJ                                                                  
MARINE...ALB/BAJ                                                                
FIRE WEATHER...ALB                                                              
CLIMATE...LKB                                                                   
</pre> md                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1010 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WEAK               
SURFACE LOW TRANSVERSING OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH WARM FRONT             
EXTENDING JUST NORTH OF THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE.  SHOWERS AND               
THUNDERSTORMS...ALL SUB-SEVERE...CONTINUE TO DEVELOP JUST SOUTH OF              
THE SURFACE LOW WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WITH SOME HELP FROM ADDED                
CONVERGENCE AS A RESULT OF LAKE BREEZES.  THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS              
HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING AS THEY HEAD TOWARDS EASTERN ALGER COUNTY WHERE           
LOWER THETAE AIR RESIDES.  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ALSO HAVE BEEN              
REDEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE PARENT SHORTWAVE OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF                
MINNESOTA.  FARTHER SOUTH...WEAK COOL FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH              
EXTENDS ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN...HAS BEEN DORMANT IN REGARDS TO               
IGNITING CONVECTION DUE TO CAPPING ISSUES JUDGING BY 00Z GRB                    
SOUNDING AS WARMING AIR SURGES NE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.  CLOSER TO               
HOME...A ROGUE SHOWER DEVELOPED OVER NE LOWER THIS EVENING BUT                  
QUICKLY DISSIPATED LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER             
MOST LOCALES.                                                                   
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...THE WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS              
TREK EAST AS HIGHER LOW LEVEL THETAE AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION             
AHEAD OF ITS SURFACE TROUGH. STRONGEST (ALBEIT PRETTY MODEST)                   
700-500MB QG FORCING WILL RESIDE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER CLOSEST TO THE            
SHORTWAVE WITH A LITTLE 850-700MB -DIVQ CLIPPING NORTHERN LOWER                 
TOWARDS THE TIP OF THE MITT.  WITHIN THE THETAE AXIS...18Z NAM SHOWS            
300-600 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE DEVELOPING BETWEEN 03-06Z...BUT                   
CURRENT CONVECTION ACROSS THE U.P. APPEARS SURFACE BASED AND SHOULD             
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AS DIURNAL INSTABILITY WANES.  THE NAM ALSO TRIES             
TO DEVELOP A MODEST 25-30KT LLJ THAT POKES INTO EASTERN UPPER AFTER             
03Z THAT CAN BOOST CONVERGENCE IN ADDITION TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW                 
AROUND THE SURFACE LOW.  THIS SEEMS TO POINT TOWARDS THE CONVECTION             
SURVIVING THE MARCH AS IT REACHES WHITEFISH POINT TO THE SOO LATER              
TONIGHT AND WILL BUMP UP POPS TO LIKELY.  OVER NORTHERN                         
LOWER...ABSENCE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON MAKES             
ME THINK CAPPING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP            
DESPITE AMPLE INSTABILITY ABOVE THE CAP.  LACK OF UPPER LEVEL                   
SUPPORT...AND WEAKENING SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH DOES               
NOT HELP EITHER.  HOWEVER...STILL A LITTLE WARY OF REMOVING PRECIP              
ALTOGETHER GIVEN ELEVATED INCOMING THETAE BOOST.  SO WILL HEDGE AND             
GO ISOLATED THUNDER FOR NORTHERN LOWER OVERNIGHT.                               
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 707 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2008/                         
AVIATION...ANOTHER CHALLENGING FORECAST IN THE AVIATION                         
DEPARTMENT TONIGHT. WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG A                
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE DRAGGING A SURFACE                  
TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.                    
NARROW CORRIDOR OF A JUICIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE                  
TROUGH...WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME INSTABILITY FOR SHOWER AND                     
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HOW MUCH LIFT IS THE KEY QUESTION                     
WHETHER THE TAF SITES WILL REMAIN DRY. FEEL BETTER CHANCES WILL                 
REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...AND A SHOWER COULD SNEAK INTO PLN                 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...BELIEVE LIFT WILL BE TOO WEAK FOR PRECIP              
AT TVC/APN. SO WILL MAINTAIN SCT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE                  
TROUGH. ONCE THE TROUGH EXITS BY AFTERNOON...DRIER AIR WILL LIKELY              
ERODE ANY CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT POP UP AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT APN                
WHERE A POTENTIAL LAKE BREEZE MAY KEEP A FEW CLOUDS AROUND.                     
MPC                                                                             
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...MID AFTERNOON OBSERVATIONAL AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE                 
ANALYSIS SHOWS PAIR OF EARLIER CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT LOBES...ONE            
OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WITH THE OTHER OVER NORTH CENTRAL                   
WISCONSIN...MAKING THEIR WAY EAST IN BROAD ZONAL WEST FLOW THAT LIES            
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS AND SOUTHERN CANADA. AS FEARED...DESPITE              
SOMEWHAT INCREASING SUPPORT...AFTERNOON MIXING AND PRESENCE OF MID              
LEVEL CAP PREVENTING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN                 
(BESIDES SOME REMNANT SPRINKLES MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS GLADWIN AND             
ARENAC COUNTIES FROM EARLIER DOWNSTATE CONVECTION). OTHERWISE...                
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING            
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS HAS LEAD TO A RATHER WARM SUMMER DAY...WITH                  
AFTERNOON READINGS WELL INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S. FARTHER                     
UPSTREAM...POTENTIAL NEXT WEATHER MAKER OF INTEREST IS NORTHERN                 
MINNESOTA LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT LOW PRESSURE/COLD               
FRONT MAKING STEADY EAST PROGRESS. FORECAST CONCERNS TONIGHT AND                
THURSDAY CENTER ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AS THIS COLD FRONT PIVOTS               
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.                                                      
TONIGHT...THINKING THAT ANY LATE AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS AND                 
STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY BE ON THE WANE...WITH ALL            
ATTENTION THEN TURNING TO UPSTREAM APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT               
CONVECTION TO QUICKLY FIRE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN UPPER                  
MICHIGAN AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AS CONVERGENCE AXIS WORKS ON               
1500+ J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL WORK EAST             
THIS EVENING FOLLOWING MOISTURE AXIS...PUSHING INTO EASTERN UPPER               
MICHIGAN LATER THIS EVENING. AFTER THAT...SEVERAL QUESTIONS ARISE AS            
OVERALL CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY WEAKENS AHEAD OF FRONTAL SYSTEM.            
THUS...FEEL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL                   
FOLLOW SUITE AS THEY DROP SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE...WILL TAPER POPS                
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT...NOT BRINGING IN CHANCE WORDING TO               
OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES UNTIL AFTER 09Z. AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER...REGION             
REMAINS OUT OF LATEST SPC SLIGHT RISK WORDING...WHICH SEEMS                     
SUPPORTED BY BETTER BULK SHEAR REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA AND                  
RELATIVELY HIGH FREEZING LEVELS (>13.0 KFT). STILL...THINKING THE               
STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SOME SMALL HAILS AND BRIEF GUSTY            
WINDS...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN UPPER                      
MICHIGAN.                                                                       
THURSDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEAST DURING THE MORNING            
AS PARENT LOW PUSHES INTO QUEBEC. WHILE MODELS REMAIN DRY DURING THE            
MORNING...HATE TO RULE OUT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM                 
BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE. EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS COULD GET QUITE                   
INTERESTING OVER FAR SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE AREA IF COLD FRONT               
STALLS FROM INTENSE MORNING WARMING. MODIFYING A NAM-WRF SOUNDING               
(IGNORING OVERZEALOUS LOW 70 DEWPOINTS) YIELDS 1500+ J/KG MEAN LAYER            
CAPE. WILL KEEP LOW POP MENTION FOR THIS POSSIBILITY THROUGH 21Z                
BEFORE FRONT SAGS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION. OTHER                
STORY WILL BE RATHER WARM TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS PUSHING THE              
UPPER 80S SOUTHEAST OF WEST BRANCH. FARTHER NORTH...MID 70S TO LOWER            
80S ARE EXPECTED...WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER ALONG               
THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.                                                    
MSB                                                                             
THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT...STILL EXPECT A DRY THURSDAY NIGHT            
WITH WEAK RIDGING...SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR OVERHEAD. CONVECTIVE                 
ACTIVITY PICKS UP AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY                   
INCREASE ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT.            
THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE               
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION (MORE ON THIS SYSTEM              
BELOW). BEST INSTABILITY AND 850 THETA-E ADVECTION WILL OCCUR WELL              
SW OF OUR CWA OVER KANSAS...MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS (AN AREA THAT                 
CERTAINLY DOES NOT NEED MORE RAIN). EXPECT BEST CHANCE OF SVR TSRA              
WILL BE IN THIS AREA WHERE STRONGER WIND FIELDS AND BETTER WIND                 
SHEAR EXIST. STILL...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SVR STORM FRIDAY                  
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH MODEST WIND SHEAR...CAPES APPROACHING 1000             
J/KG AND THE 850 MB THETA E RIDGE AXIS JUST UPSTREAM. WILL MAINTAIN             
CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA FOR FRIDAY AND LIKELY POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW            
TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S BOTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND            
FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S                 
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.                                                               
SATURDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW WILL DIVE SE OUT OF S            
CENTRAL CANADA INTO NRN MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY. SURFACE REFLECTION                
BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE DEEP CLOSED 500 MB LOW...                   
RESULTING IN A VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION AWAY FROM THE STATE               
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...SYSTEM IS UNSEASONABLY             
STRONG AND VERY DYNAMIC. IN ADDITION...LATEST MODELS STILL SUGGEST              
MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LOW AND COLD FRONT               
WILL IMPACT OUR AREA DURING PEAK HEATING SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.            
HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY FOR SATURDAY AS MICHIGAN FINDS ITSELF               
WITHIN THE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AXES AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. HAVE              
ALSO INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE              
STACKED LOW MOVES THRU NRN MICHIGAN AND THEN STALLS OVER LAKE HURON.            
CHANCE POPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THRU MONDAY AS AMPLE LOW              
LEVEL MOISTURE...GOOD CYCLONIC FLOW AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY                  
REMAIN OVER THE AREA AS THE 500 MB COLD POOL ARRIVES. MONDAY NIGHT              
THRU WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE/RIDGING/DRIER AIR               
SETTLE INTO THE REGION. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS            
IN THE 50S THRU THE PERIOD.                                                     
AVIATION... /ISSUED 140 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2008/                                 
BESIDES SOME SCATTERED CU AND CIRRUS...ANOTHER UNEVENTFUL DAY                   
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING REMAINS IN CONTROL.               
MORE OF THE SAME EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE                      
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS THE THREAT OF SOME WIDELY                     
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. AT THIS TIME...MUCH UNCERTAINTY                   
EXISTS REGARDING BOTH TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND                        
STORMS...SO HAVE SIMPLY LEFT ANY MENTION OUT OF TAFS. WIND SHIFT                
TO MORE WNW EXPECTED THURSDAY.                                                  
MSB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
LH...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
142 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2008                                                      
UPDATED FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE                                                    
.SYNOPSIS (ISSUED AT 557 AM EDT WED)...                                         
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MAINLY ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS             
THE NRN CONUS WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OF NOTE. ONE SHRTWV                
MOVING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SUPPORTED A LINE OF ISOLD SHRA EARLY                
THIS MORNING STRETCHING WEST TO EAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ALONG A               
SFC TROF INTERSECTING THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER            
SRN MANITOBA WILL BE POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPR GREAT LAKES THIS             
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD TO SCT                   
SHRA/TSRA.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
TODAY...THE SRN SASK SHRTWV WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS                   
SUGGEST GREATER INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE                  
ADVECTS TOWARD THE WRN LAKES FROM IA AND SRN MN. FCST TEMP/DEWPOINTS            
NEAR 80/60 WOULD INDICATE CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG. IF THIS            
INSTABILITY IS REALIZED...THERE IS SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF               
40-50KT TO LEAD TO A FEW ISOLD SVR STORMS. THE BIG QUESTION IS WILL             
DRIER (MID-UPR 50S) DEWPOINTS MIX TO THE SFC SIMILAR TO WHAT                    
HAPPENED YESTERDAY AND LIMIT AND/OR INHIBIT CONVECTION. LOOKING AT              
HOW DRY UPSTREAM 00Z SNDGS AT KINL AND KMPX ARE...I CERTAINLY THINK             
THAT THE NAM AND GFS MODEL DEWPOINTS ARE OVERDONE. IF DRY AIR ALOFT             
DOES LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID-UPR 50S...IT WILL HARD TO                 
BREAK THROUGH MID LVL CAP AT 750 MB. SPC MUST ALSO BE THINKING ALONG            
LINES OF A REDUCED THREAT OR DRIER SOLN AS THEY HAVE DROPPED OUR CWA            
OUT OF SLIGHT RISK FOR DAY1. WILL FOLLOW SUIT ON THE HWO AND DROP               
RISK OF SVR TODAY...BUT WILL LEAVE IN MENTION OF STRONGER STORMS                
CONTAINING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH. KEPT LOW CHC POPS              
GOING FOR THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.                                 
WED NIGHT AND THU...WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR ANY AFTERNOON             
CONVECTION THAT MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING ON TAIL END OF DEPARTING            
SHORTWAVE...MAINLY FOR CENTRAL AND ERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.                     
OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS INTO THU AS DNVA/RIDGING MOVE IN              
BEHIND THE SHRTWV. 850MB TEMPS AROUND 14C WILL ALLOW LOCATIONS AWAY             
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. COOLER                   
READINGS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES AS LAKE BREEZES            
DEVELOP UNDER WEAK GRADIENT FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.                        
FRI...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EMERGES FROM THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND             
CARVES OUT CLOSED LOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BY LATE FRI INTO FRIDAY              
NIGHT. KEPT HIGHEST POPS FRI AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST HALF AND SPREAD            
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT AS MODELS SHOW IMPRESSIVE                 
HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPR LOW. SPC STILL INDICATES A            
SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA FRI AFTERNOON                
INTO FRI NIGHT WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN GFS FCST OF MLCAPES OF              
500-1000 J/KG AND 30-40 KT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR.                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CIGS AND VIS REMAIN DESPITE A DISTURBANCE/FRONTAL BOUNDARIES                
SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY REMAINS OVER LAKE               
SUPERIOR...WITH ONLY SHORT TOP CUMULUS POPPING UP OVER LAND THUS                
FAR. WENT WITH TEMPO SHOWERS AT CMX...WITH A BETTER CHANCE LATE THIS            
AFTERNOON AT SAW. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL                  
GREATLY DECREASE ONCE AGAIN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE            
EXITING DISTURBANCE AND THE WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDING EAST OF SAW BY              
06Z. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE WITH BE A WESTERLY SHIFT TO THE WINDS AND              
FEWER CLOUDS FOR THURSDAY.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
WINDS/WAVES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY.                   
THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN SUGGESTS WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY                
THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR.                 
SOME BRIEF SHIFTS OF WIND WILL OCCUR ON TODAY WITH ANY SHOWERS                  
DEVELOPMENT...BUT WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN 20 KNOTS OR LESS                
THROUGH REST OF THE PERIOD. AS THE NEXT LOW PASSES THROUGH THE AREA             
ON SUNDAY WINDS WILL VEER NORTH.                                                
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...VOSS                                                      
AVIATION...KF                                                                   
MARINE...DLG                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
729 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MAINLY ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS             
THE NRN CONUS WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OF NOTE. ONE SHRTWV                
MOVING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SUPPORTED A LINE OF ISOLD SHRA EARLY                
THIS MORNING STRETCHING WEST TO EAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ALONG A               
SFC TROF INTERSECTING THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER            
SRN MANITOBA WILL BE POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPR GREAT LAKES THIS             
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD TO SCT                   
SHRA/TSRA.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
TODAY...THE SRN SASK SHRTWV WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS                   
SUGGEST GREATER INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE                  
ADVECTS TOWARD THE WRN LAKES FROM IA AND SRN MN. FCST TEMP/DEWPOINTS            
NEAR 80/60 WOULD INDICATE CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG. IF THIS            
INSTABILITY IS REALIZED...THERE IS SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF               
40-50KT TO LEAD TO A FEW ISOLD SVR STORMS. THE BIG QUESTION IS WILL             
DRIER (MID-UPR 50S) DEWPOINTS MIX TO THE SFC SIMILAR TO WHAT                    
HAPPENED YESTERDAY AND LIMIT AND/OR INHIBIT CONVECTION. LOOKING AT              
HOW DRY UPSTREAM 00Z SNDGS AT KINL AND KMPX ARE...I CERTAINLY THINK             
THAT THE NAM AND GFS MODEL DEWPOINTS ARE OVERDONE. IF DRY AIR ALOFT             
DOES LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID-UPR 50S...IT WILL HARD TO                 
BREAK THROUGH MID LVL CAP AT 750 MB. SPC MUST ALSO BE THINKING ALONG            
LINES OF A REDUCED THREAT OR DRIER SOLN AS THEY HAVE DROPPED OUR CWA            
OUT OF SLIGHT RISK FOR DAY1. WILL FOLLOW SUIT ON THE HWO AND DROP               
RISK OF SVR TODAY...BUT WILL LEAVE IN MENTION OF STRONGER STORMS                
CONTAINING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH. KEPT LOW CHC POPS              
GOING FOR THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.                                 
WED NIGHT AND THU...WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR ANY AFTERNOON             
CONVECTION THAT MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING ON TAIL END OF DEPARTING            
SHORTWAVE...MAINLY FOR CENTRAL AND ERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.                     
OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS INTO THU AS DNVA/RIDGING MOVE IN              
BEHIND THE SHRTWV. 850MB TEMPS AROUND 14C WILL ALLOW LOCATIONS AWAY             
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. COOLER                   
READINGS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES AS LAKE BREEZES            
DEVELOP UNDER WEAK GRADIENT FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.                        
FRI...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EMERGES FROM THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND             
CARVES OUT CLOSED LOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BY LATE FRI INTO FRIDAY              
NIGHT. KEPT HIGHEST POPS FRI AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST HALF AND SPREAD            
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT AS MODELS SHOW IMPRESSIVE                 
HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPR LOW. SPC STILL INDICATES A            
SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA FRI AFTERNOON                
INTO FRI NIGHT WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN GFS FCST OF MLCAPES OF              
500-1000 J/KG AND 30-40 KT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR.                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CIGS AND VIS TO DOMINATE THIS MORNING. A SHORTWAVE                          
TROUGH/DISTURBANCE WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON                   
RESULTING IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HINTED AT THIS                
AFTER 18Z WITH -SHRA AND CB AS CIGS FALL TO LOWER VFR RANGE. MAY                
NEED TO CLEARLY MENTION TS IN THE TAFS AS TIME NEARS AND THE                    
POTENTIAL OF AN ACCURATE OCCURRENCE BECOME MORE LIKELY. THE CHANCE              
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GREATLY DECREASE ONCE AGAIN WITH              
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE EXITING DISTURBANCE.                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
WINDS/WAVES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY.                   
THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN SUGGESTS WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY                
THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR.                 
SOME BRIEF SHIFTS OF WIND WILL OCCUR ON TODAY WITH ANY SHOWERS                  
DEVELOPMENT...BUT WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN 20 KNOTS OR LESS                
THROUGH REST OF THE PERIOD. AS THE NEXT LOW PASSES THROUGH THE AREA             
ON SUNDAY WINDS WILL VEER NORTH.                                                
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...VOSS                                                      
AVIATION...DLG                                                                  
MARINE...DLG                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
530 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS (ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT TUE)...                                         
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MAINLY ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS             
THE NRN CONUS WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OF NOTE. ONE SHRTWV                
MOVING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SUPPORTED A LINE OF ISOLD SHRA EARLY                
THIS MORNING STRETCHING WEST TO EAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ALONG A               
SFC TROF INTERSECTING THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER            
SRN MANITOBA WILL BE POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPR GREAT LAKES THIS             
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD TO SCT                   
SHRA/TSRA.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
TODAY...THE SRN SASK SHRTWV WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS                   
SUGGEST GREATER INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE                  
ADVECTS TOWARD THE WRN LAKES FROM IA AND SRN MN. FCST TEMP/DEWPOINTS            
NEAR 80/60 WOULD INDICATE CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG. IF THIS            
INSTABILITY IS REALIZED...THERE IS SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF               
40-50KT TO LEAD TO A FEW ISOLD SVR STORMS. THE BIG QUESTION IS WILL             
DRIER (MID-UPR 50S) DEWPOINTS MIX TO THE SFC SIMILAR TO WHAT                    
HAPPENED YESTERDAY AND LIMIT AND/OR INHIBIT CONVECTION. LOOKING AT              
HOW DRY UPSTREAM 00Z SNDGS AT KINL AND KMPX ARE...I CERTAINLY THINK             
THAT THE NAM AND GFS MODEL DEWPOINTS ARE OVERDONE. IF DRY AIR ALOFT             
DOES LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID-UPR 50S...IT WILL HARD TO                 
BREAK THROUGH MID LVL CAP AT 750 MB. SPC MUST ALSO BE THINKING ALONG            
LINES OF A REDUCED THREAT OR DRIER SOLN AS THEY HAVE DROPPED OUR CWA            
OUT OF SLIGHT RISK FOR DAY1. WILL FOLLOW SUIT ON THE HWO AND DROP               
RISK OF SVR TODAY...BUT WILL LEAVE IN MENTION OF STRONGER STORMS                
CONTAINING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH. KEPT LOW CHC POPS              
GOING FOR THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.                                 
WED NIGHT AND THU...WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR ANY AFTERNOON             
CONVECTION THAT MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING ON TAIL END OF DEPARTING            
SHORTWAVE...MAINLY FOR CENTRAL AND ERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.                     
OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS INTO THU AS DNVA/RIDGING MOVE IN              
BEHIND THE SHRTWV. 850MB TEMPS AROUND 14C WILL ALLOW LOCATIONS AWAY             
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. COOLER                   
READINGS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES AS LAKE BREEZES            
DEVELOP UNDER WEAK GRADIENT FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.                        
FRI...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EMERGES FROM THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND             
CARVES OUT CLOSED LOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BY LATE FRI INTO FRIDAY              
NIGHT. KEPT HIGHEST POPS FRI AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST HALF AND SPREAD            
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT AS MODELS SHOW IMPRESSIVE                 
HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPR LOW. SPC STILL INDICATES A            
SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA FRI AFTERNOON                
INTO FRI NIGHT WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN GFS FCST OF MLCAPES OF              
500-1000 J/KG AND 30-40 KT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR.                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT VFR CIGS AND VIS TO DOMINATE. THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT               
WILL BE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/DISTURBANCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS                  
SHOULD RESULT IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HINTED AT THIS            
AFTER 17Z WITH -SHRA AND CB AS CIGS FALL TO LOWER VFR RANGE. MAY                
NEED TO CLEARLY MENTION TS IN THE TAFS AS TIME NEARS AND THE                    
POTENTIAL OF AN ACCURATE OCCURRENCE BECOME MORE LIKELY. THE CHANCE              
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GREATLY DECREASE ONCE AGAIN WITH              
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE EXITING DISTURBANCE.                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
WINDS/WAVES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY.                   
THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN SUGGESTS WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY                
THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR.                 
SOME BRIEF SHIFTS OF WIND WILL OCCUR ON TODAY WITH ANY SHOWERS                  
DEVELOPMENT...BUT WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN 20 KNOTS OR LESS                
THROUGH REST OF THE PERIOD. AS THE NEXT LOW PASSES THROUGH THE AREA             
ON SUNDAY WINDS WILL VEER NORTH.                                                
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...VOSS                                                      
AVIATION...KF                                                                   
MARINE...DLG                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
138 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2008                                                      
UPDATED FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE                                                    
.SYNOPSIS (ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT MON)...                                         
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM             
HUDSON BAY INTO THE ERN LAKES...A RIDGE FROM THE SW CONUS INTO THE              
UPPER MS VALLEY...AND WSW THROUGH THE NW CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH              
OVER FROM SRN ALBERTA INTO SW SASK IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT WEATHER                
OVER THE WRN LAKES TUE. AT THE SFC... HIGH PRES DOMINATED THE WRN               
GREAT LAKES AS ACYC NRLY FLOW HAS BROUGHT CLEARING OVER MOST OF                 
UPPER MI. CU FIELDS HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE              
AN AREA OF FOG PERSISTED OVER CNTRL INTO SRN LAKE SUPERIOR.                     
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)                                             
TONIGHT...DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS              
TO FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S...EXCEPT OVER THE WEST WHERE                 
INCREASE IN SRLY WINDS LATE AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL             
KEEP READINGS IN THE LOWER 50S.                                                 
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST FORCING REMAINS MAINLY NORTH OF THE            
CWA...QG FORCING...UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH JET LEFT EXIT REGION AND                
300K-305 ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SASK SHRTWV MAY BE ENOUGH TO              
BRING SOME PCPN INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT AND INTO W UPPER            
MI TUE MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING AND LOW LEVEL CONV VCNTY LAKE BREEZE            
BOUNDARIES AND A WEAK SFC TROUGH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SCT                
AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA. PROFILE USING HIGHER END SFC TEMP/DEWPOINT                 
VALUES AROUND 77/54 WOULD GIVE MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE 500-1000 J/KG             
RANGE. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES TO NEAR 35 KT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR              
SOME STORM ORGANIZATION AND LOW END RISK FOR HAIL TO AROUND A HALF              
INCH.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH DAY 7)...                                     
THROUGHOUT THIS TIME PERIOD WE CAN EXPECT ON AND OFF CHANCES FOR                
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MOST            
SIGNIFICANT POPS COINCIDING WITH BROAD LOW PRESSURE ENTERING THE CWA            
THIS WEEKEND. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT DECIDED TO CONFINE POPS MAINLY TO               
EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA AS BETTER MOISTURE AND BETTER CONVERGENCE              
REMAINS GENERALLY OVER THE EAST. AS SHORTWAVE FEATURE EXITS TO THE              
EAST...OPTED TO REMOVE POPS PAST 06Z WED. BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR                
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS MID LEVEL              
SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH DAY TIME HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR                         
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A QUICK LOOK AT AREA SOUNDINGS SHOW            
MODEST CAPE VALUES MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST HALF...ANY SEVERE                     
POTENTIAL WOULD BE CONFINED TO HAIL...THOUGH BE IT SMALL..AS DEEP               
LAYER SHEAR IN OUR AREA IS WEAK. IN FACT THE WESTERN U.P. IS IN THE             
SLIGHT RISK OUTLOOK DURING THIS TIME. DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE FA ON            
THURSDAY AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WHICH LOOKS TO               
DOMINATE U.P. WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DID INCREASE POPS A BIT              
ON FRIDAY AS MODEL GUIDANCE/OUTLOOK FROM SPC INDICATES SVR POTENTIAL            
IS QUITE GOOD. OPTED TO KEEP CHANCE WORDING FOR NOW...THINK UPCOMING            
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO INCREASE POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING TO               
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...DECIDED TO ADD POPS INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING             
WITH BROAD ASCENT AND MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE U.P. ALSO TRENDED             
TEMPERATURES COOLER FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT VFR CIGS AND VIS TO DOMINATE. THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT               
WILL BE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/DISTURBANCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS                  
SHOULD RESULT IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HINTED AT THIS            
AFTER 17Z WITH -SHRA AND CB AS CIGS FALL TO LOWER VFR RANGE. MAY                
NEED TO CLEARLY MENTION TS IN THE TAFS AS TIME NEARS AND THE                    
POTENTIAL OF AN ACCURATE OCCURRENCE BECOME MORE LIKELY. THE CHANCE              
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GREATLY DECREASE ONCE AGAIN WITH              
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE EXITING DISTURBANCE.                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
WINDS/WAVES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT ACROSS THE LAKE FOR THE NEXT             
SEVERAL DAYS. THERE ARE SOME MINOR MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH REGARD                
TO WINDS AFTER TONIGHT...BUT THE GENERAL PATTERN SUGGESTS WINDS WILL            
TURN SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH WED AS HIGH PRES             
SHIFTS EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR. MAY SEE SOME BRIEF SHIFTS OF WIND ON              
TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON WED WITH ANY CONVECTION...BUT WINDS SHOULD                 
GENERALLY REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH WED AT LEAST.                            
WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO THIS OUT LATE THIS                   
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT SOME AREAS MAY PERSIST TONIGHT BEFORE                 
DIMINISHING TUE AS SRLY WINDS INCREASE.                                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...JLB                                                       
LONG TERM...PEARSON                                                             
AVIATION...KF                                                                   
MARINE...JLB                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1151 PM EDT TUE JUN 24 2008                                                     
.AVIATION...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.P. HAVE MOSTLY                
DISSIPATED AND DONT STAND MUCH OF A CHANCE OF REACHING PLN                      
OVERNIGHT. IFR VSBYS HAVE QUICKLY OVERTAKEN APN...AND WITH CLEAR                
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...SUPPOSE LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE                    
DURING THE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. OTHERWISE...A MID- LEVEL                     
DISTURBANCE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL REACH THE SW GREAT LAKES BY              
MORNING. CONVERGING WINDS ABOUT A MILE OFF THE SURFACE MAY ALLOW                
SOME 5-7KFT CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AROUND THE STRAITS...WHICH COULD                  
DEVELOP A SPRINKLE AT PLN...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR              
NOW SINCE UNCERTAINTY IS FAIRLY HIGH. THE MID- LEVEL DISTURBANCE                
WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE REGION BY TOMORROW                 
AFTERNOON. SOME LOW-END MID CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS                
WARM FRONT AT APN AND POSSIBLY TVC...BUT BEST FORCING FOR PRECIP                
LOOKS TO REMAIN TO YOUR SOUTH AT THIS TIME. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT              
THEN WILL REACH NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATE TOMORROW EVENING AND COULD               
GENERATE A SHOWER AT PLN/TVC. WILL MAINTAIN THE VFR FORECAST                    
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES EXCEPT APN.                                 
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 945 PM EDT TUE JUN 24 2008/                         
UPDATE...LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HEIGHT                
FALLS OCCURRING NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE              
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MID-LEVEL FORCING AHEAD                
OF THIS WAVE HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR              
AND POINTS NORTH. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF DRY/ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE              
LOW LEVELS COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN                  
GREAT LAKES TO THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS...HAS KEPT ANY SHOWER              
ACTIVITY AT BAY. BAND OF LOW END MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF A 700MB              
THETAE GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL U.P. IS SLOWLY DISSIPATING WITH                
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND IS CONSEQUENTLY HAVING A DIFFICULT                  
TIME REACHING EASTERN UPPER. ALONG THE SAME LINES...OTHER DIURNAL               
CU OVER PORTIONS OF NE LOWER SHOULD ALSO KICK THE BUCKET SHORTLY.               
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED 700MB THETAE GRADIENT WILL LAY       
OUT ACROSS EASTERN UPPER BY MORNING AND COULD SEE A FEW/SCT MID-                
LEVEL CLOUDS WORK INTO THE AREA. OTHERWISE...TOUGH TO FIND ANY                  
REASON TO KEEP PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE FORECAST FOR NORTHERN                 
LOWER UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. THATS WHEN LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS BACK                   
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE OVER THE SW GREAT LAKES. THIS CAUSES                       
CONFLUENT FLOW TO DEVELOP AT 850MB WHICH IS THEN CHANNELED TOWARDS              
THE STRAITS REGION. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL DEWPOINT PUSH DOES NOT                   
ENTER OUR AREA UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON...COULD SEE PARTLY CLOUDY               
SKIES DEVELOP OVER THE NW LOWER MICHIGAN SHORELINE AND EASTERN                  
UPPER AS A RESULT. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS SUPER.                            
ZONES OUT SHORTLY.                                                              
MPC                                                                             
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM EDT TUE JUN 24 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...MID AFTERNOON OBSERVATIONAL AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE                 
ANALYSIS SHOWS NORTHERN MICHIGAN WEATHER DOMINATED BY LOW LEVEL                 
RIDGE AXIS OVERTOPPED BY NORTHWEST MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW. OTHER              
THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS...CONDITIONS               
HAVE BEEN RATHER TRANQUIL WITH ANTICIPATED AFTERNOON MIXING OF                  
REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PREVENTING THE FORMATION OF DIURNALLY                
DRIVEN SHOWERS.  LOOKING UPSTREAM...BROAD...NEARLY ZONAL...WEST TO              
NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS/SOUTHERN CANADA WITH            
SEVERAL WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN...THE CLOSEST OF WHICH IS PIVOTING                
EAST NORTH OF THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA. FORECAST CONCERN TONIGHT              
ARE RATHER TRIVIAL...CENTERING ON TEMPERATURE/CLOUD TRENDS ALONG                
WITH ANY SHOWER POTENTIAL.                                                      
TONIGHT...RATHER UNEVENTFUL NIGHT EXPECTED AS MAIN DYNAMICS OF LEAD             
SHORTWAVE PUSH NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A VERY              
SUBTLE WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE FAR NORTH LATER TONIGHT. GIVEN                  
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SHOWING A DEARTH OF ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH              
EITHER...WOULD EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BOARD.                
HOWEVER...MUCH LIKE PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED...CANNOT ENTIRELY             
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WITH SOME             
MID LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF ENCROACHING WAVES.                          
STILL...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW WITH THIS SCENARIO SO HAVE DECIDED TO            
PULL SPRINKLE MENTION. RATHER MILD NIGHT EXPECTED WITH READINGS ONLY            
DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S.                                             
MSB                                                                             
WEDNESDAY...NEARLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN               
LAKES REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ONLY A WEAK RIPPLE NOTED IN              
THE FLOW NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. AT THE SURFACE...A DOMINATE AREA OF            
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST AND ERN LAKES            
REGION THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER                 
MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS. A WARM FRONT LOCATED ACROSS IOWA AND ILL            
EARLY WED HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER MCS JUST NORTH OF THE                   
BOUNDARY...WERE A 20-25KT LOW LVL JET INTERSECTS THE BOUNDARY                   
AND AN 850MB MSTR TONGUE OF 13C. 850/300 MB THICKNESS PATTERN SHOWS             
THIS MCS MOVING WELL SOUTH OF THE APX CWA IN THE MORNING...MAYBE                
GRAZING SW LOWER MICHIGAN IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER FOR THE REST OF               
THE DAY...THE CENTRAL PLAINS WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO                 
LOWER MICHIGAN BY THE AFTERNOON. AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN                 
PLACE OVER THE STATE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. 850MB DEW PTS WILL             
BE AROUND 12C WITH SFC DEW PTS IN THE UPPER 50S. CORRESPONDING                  
INDICES SHOW A LIFTED INDEX AND SHOWALTER AROUND -3C WITH CAPE                  
VALUES AROUND 800 J/KG. OVERALL WILL MENTION SCATTERED SHOWERS AND              
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE EVENING. WILL ALSO                
MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NRN MI WEDNESDAY             
NIGHT AS AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A COLD            
FRONT SWEEPS OVER THE STATE. ADDITIONAL LIFT OVERNIGHT WILL BE                  
SUPPLIED BY A WEAK 500 MB WAVE SWEEPING OVER THE NRN LAKES.                     
WILL MENTION AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AS 850 MB TEMPS WARM              
TO AROUND 14C. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD AND ABOVE NORMAL                 
OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S.                                         
THURSDAY...850MB DEW PTS WILL REMAIN AROUND 12C OVER NORTHEAST LOWER            
IN THE MORNING...WITH 850 MB DEW PTS DIMINISHING TO UNDER 8C ACROSS             
THE ENTIRE NRN LAKES REGION BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE WEAK FRONT                  
PUSHES EAST OF LAKE HURON. SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LINGERS OVER NE            
LWR IN THE MORNING...WITH LIFTED AND SHOWALTER INDEX AROUND -2C IN              
RESPONSE TO 850MB DEW PTS AROUND 12C AND SFC DEW PTS IN THE UPPER               
50S. CAPE VALUES WILL BE MINOR ONLY AROUND 600 J/KG IN THE SAGINAW              
BAY REGION JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT. THEREFORE WILL LINGER A                 
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST LOWER IN THE                 
MORNING AS THE STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE                
GREAT LAKES. WILL MENTION DRY CONDS ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST             
AREA WITH SOME SUN AND MILD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...MAINLY IN THE              
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY THURSDAY               
NIGHT...AS SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE GREAT                
LAKES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS MILD MAINLY              
IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60S...DUE TO LINGERING LOW LEVEL MSTR AND              
WEAK SW FLOW.                                                                   
FRIDAY...THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH SURFACE            
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LINGERING OVER THE STATE INTO THE MORNING AND           
AFTERNOON. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL              
BE LATE FRIDAY AFTN...AS ANOTHER UPPER MIDWEST STORM SYSTEM MOVES               
INTO THE WRN LAKES AND WRN UPPER MICHIGAN. AT UPPER LEVELS THE GREAT            
LAKES REGION WILL BE MAINLY DOMINATED BY A STRONG UPPER RIDGE                   
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE UPPER MIDWEST STORM SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO                
PUSH A WARM FRONT UP INTO SRN LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND               
EVENING...WITH THE REST OF THE REGION GENERALLY UNDER LINGERING HIGH            
PRESSURE. HOWEVER WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON                            
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SRN CWA NEAREST THE WARM FRONT AND               
WHERE HIGHER 850/SFC DEW PT AIR AND THEREFORE INSTABILITY WILL BE               
LOCATED. WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY UNTIL THE                  
EVENING. FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARD THE WRN LAKES WITH            
A SFC FRONT MOVING OVER THE NRN LAKES. WITH UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE               
WILL MENTION SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST               
AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AS 850 MB            
TEMPS WARM TO 14C. WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S/60S DUE TO               
LINGERING HIGH SFC DEW PTS.                                                     
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO             
BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH A SFC LOW              
MOVING OVER THE NRN LAKES. AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO WRN LAKE                 
SUPERIOR SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO ERN ONTARIO MONDAY. AT THE                 
SFC...A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION JUST NORTH OF LAKE               
SUPERIOR SLOWLY MOVING EAST INTO QUEBEC MONDAY. OVERALL WILL                    
CONTINUE A CHANCE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE              
WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY TUESDAY AS             
SFC AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.            
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD IN THE 80S SATURDAY BUT WILL COOL                
INTO THE 70S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO UNDER 10C.            
WILL WARM TEMPS BACK INTO THE 80S TUESDAY...AS 850 MB TEMPS RECOVER             
TO AROUND 14C.                                                                  
SWR                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
LH...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
945 PM EDT TUE JUN 24 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HEIGHT               
FALLS OCCURRING NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE              
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MID-LEVEL FORCING AHEAD                
OF THIS WAVE HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR              
AND POINTS NORTH. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF DRY/ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE              
LOW LEVELS COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN                  
GREAT LAKES TO THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS...HAS KEPT ANY SHOWER              
ACTIVITY AT BAY. BAND OF LOW END MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF A 700MB              
THETAE GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL U.P. IS SLOWLY DISSIPATING WITH                
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND IS CONSEQUENTLY HAVING A DIFFICULT                  
TIME REACHING EASTERN UPPER. ALONG THE SAME LINES...OTHER DIURNAL               
CU OVER PORTIONS OF NE LOWER SHOULD ALSO KICK THE BUCKET SHORTLY.               
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED 700MB THETAE GRADIENT WILL LAY       
OUT ACROSS EASTERN UPPER BY MORNING AND COULD SEE A FEW/SCT MID-                
LEVEL CLOUDS WORK INTO THE AREA. OTHERWISE...TOUGH TO FIND ANY                  
REASON TO KEEP PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE FORECAST FOR NORTHERN                 
LOWER UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. THATS WHEN LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS BACK                   
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE OVER THE SW GREAT LAKES. THIS CAUSES                       
CONFLUENT FLOW TO DEVELOP AT 850MB WHICH IS THEN CHANNELED TOWARDS              
THE STRAITS REGION. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL DEWPOINT PUSH DOES NOT                   
ENTER OUR AREA UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON...COULD SEE PARTLY CLOUDY               
SKIES DEVELOP OVER THE NW LOWER MICHIGAN SHORELINE AND EASTERN                  
UPPER AS A RESULT. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS SUPER.                            
ZONES OUT SHORTLY.                                                              
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 703 PM EDT TUE JUN 24 2008/                         
AVIATION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST                         
TONIGHT...AS A COOL FRONT LAYS OUT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. NO THREAT              
OF ANY PRECIP WITH THE COOL FRONT SINCE ITS JUST TOO FAR NORTH.                 
THAT LEAVES OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING OVERHEAD DURING THE                 
NIGHT. A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL MOVE                  
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...AND PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST                 
TOWARDS THE REGION BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SOME LOW-END MID CLOUDS               
CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS WARM FRONT AT APN AND POSSIBLY                    
TVC...BUT BEST FORCING FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN TO YOUR SOUTH                 
AT THIS TIME. WILL MAINTAIN THE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF                  
PERIOD.                                                                         
MPC                                                                             
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM EDT TUE JUN 24 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...MID AFTERNOON OBSERVATIONAL AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE                 
ANALYSIS SHOWS NORTHERN MICHIGAN WEATHER DOMINATED BY LOW LEVEL                 
RIDGE AXIS OVERTOPPED BY NORTHWEST MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW. OTHER              
THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS...CONDITIONS               
HAVE BEEN RATHER TRANQUIL WITH ANTICIPATED AFTERNOON MIXING OF                  
REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PREVENTING THE FORMATION OF DIURNALLY                
DRIVEN SHOWERS.  LOOKING UPSTREAM...BROAD...NEARLY ZONAL...WEST TO              
NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS/SOUTHERN CANADA WITH            
SEVERAL WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN...THE CLOSEST OF WHICH IS PIVOTING                
EAST NORTH OF THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA. FORECAST CONCERN TONIGHT              
ARE RATHER TRIVIAL...CENTERING ON TEMPERATURE/CLOUD TRENDS ALONG                
WITH ANY SHOWER POTENTIAL.                                                      
TONIGHT...RATHER UNEVENTFUL NIGHT EXPECTED AS MAIN DYNAMICS OF LEAD             
SHORTWAVE PUSH NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A VERY              
SUBTLE WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE FAR NORTH LATER TONIGHT. GIVEN                  
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SHOWING A DEARTH OF ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH              
EITHER...WOULD EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BOARD.                
HOWEVER...MUCH LIKE PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED...CANNOT ENTIRELY             
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WITH SOME             
MID LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF ENCROACHING WAVES.                          
STILL...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW WITH THIS SCENARIO SO HAVE DECIDED TO            
PULL SPRINKLE MENTION. RATHER MILD NIGHT EXPECTED WITH READINGS ONLY            
DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S.                                             
MSB                                                                             
WEDNESDAY...NEARLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN               
LAKES REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ONLY A WEAK RIPPLE NOTED IN              
THE FLOW NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. AT THE SURFACE...A DOMINATE AREA OF            
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST AND ERN LAKES            
REGION THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER                 
MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS. A WARM FRONT LOCATED ACROSS IOWA AND ILL            
EARLY WED HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER MCS JUST NORTH OF THE                   
BOUNDARY...WERE A 20-25KT LOW LVL JET INTERSECTS THE BOUNDARY                   
AND AN 850MB MSTR TONGUE OF 13C. 850/300 MB THICKNESS PATTERN SHOWS             
THIS MCS MOVING WELL SOUTH OF THE APX CWA IN THE MORNING...MAYBE                
GRAZING SW LOWER MICHIGAN IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER FOR THE REST OF               
THE DAY...THE CENTRAL PLAINS WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO                 
LOWER MICHIGAN BY THE AFTERNOON. AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN                 
PLACE OVER THE STATE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. 850MB DEW PTS WILL             
BE AROUND 12C WITH SFC DEW PTS IN THE UPPER 50S. CORRESPONDING                  
INDICES SHOW A LIFTED INDEX AND SHOWALTER AROUND -3C WITH CAPE                  
VALUES AROUND 800 J/KG. OVERALL WILL MENTION SCATTERED SHOWERS AND              
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE EVENING. WILL ALSO                
MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NRN MI WEDNESDAY             
NIGHT AS AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A COLD            
FRONT SWEEPS OVER THE STATE. ADDITIONAL LIFT OVERNIGHT WILL BE                  
SUPPLIED BY A WEAK 500 MB WAVE SWEEPING OVER THE NRN LAKES.                     
WILL MENTION AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AS 850 MB TEMPS WARM              
TO AROUND 14C. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD AND ABOVE NORMAL                 
OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S.                                         
THURSDAY...850MB DEW PTS WILL REMAIN AROUND 12C OVER NORTHEAST LOWER            
IN THE MORNING...WITH 850 MB DEW PTS DIMINISHING TO UNDER 8C ACROSS             
THE ENTIRE NRN LAKES REGION BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE WEAK FRONT                  
PUSHES EAST OF LAKE HURON. SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LINGERS OVER NE            
LWR IN THE MORNING...WITH LIFTED AND SHOWALTER INDEX AROUND -2C IN              
RESPONSE TO 850MB DEW PTS AROUND 12C AND SFC DEW PTS IN THE UPPER               
50S. CAPE VALUES WILL BE MINOR ONLY AROUND 600 J/KG IN THE SAGINAW              
BAY REGION JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT. THEREFORE WILL LINGER A                 
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST LOWER IN THE                 
MORNING AS THE STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE                
GREAT LAKES. WILL MENTION DRY CONDS ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST             
AREA WITH SOME SUN AND MILD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...MAINLY IN THE              
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY THURSDAY               
NIGHT...AS SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE GREAT                
LAKES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS MILD MAINLY              
IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60S...DUE TO LINGERING LOW LEVEL MSTR AND              
WEAK SW FLOW.                                                                   
FRIDAY...THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH SURFACE            
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LINGERING OVER THE STATE INTO THE MORNING AND           
AFTERNOON. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL              
BE LATE FRIDAY AFTN...AS ANOTHER UPPER MIDWEST STORM SYSTEM MOVES               
INTO THE WRN LAKES AND WRN UPPER MICHIGAN. AT UPPER LEVELS THE GREAT            
LAKES REGION WILL BE MAINLY DOMINATED BY A STRONG UPPER RIDGE                   
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE UPPER MIDWEST STORM SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO                
PUSH A WARM FRONT UP INTO SRN LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND               
EVENING...WITH THE REST OF THE REGION GENERALLY UNDER LINGERING HIGH            
PRESSURE. HOWEVER WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON                            
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SRN CWA NEAREST THE WARM FRONT AND               
WHERE HIGHER 850/SFC DEW PT AIR AND THEREFORE INSTABILITY WILL BE               
LOCATED. WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY UNTIL THE                  
EVENING. FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARD THE WRN LAKES WITH            
A SFC FRONT MOVING OVER THE NRN LAKES. WITH UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE               
WILL MENTION SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST               
AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AS 850 MB            
TEMPS WARM TO 14C. WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S/60S DUE TO               
LINGERING HIGH SFC DEW PTS.                                                     
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO             
BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH A SFC LOW              
MOVING OVER THE NRN LAKES. AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO WRN LAKE                 
SUPERIOR SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO ERN ONTARIO MONDAY. AT THE                 
SFC...A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION JUST NORTH OF LAKE               
SUPERIOR SLOWLY MOVING EAST INTO QUEBEC MONDAY. OVERALL WILL                    
CONTINUE A CHANCE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE              
WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY TUESDAY AS             
SFC AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.            
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD IN THE 80S SATURDAY BUT WILL COOL                
INTO THE 70S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO UNDER 10C.            
WILL WARM TEMPS BACK INTO THE 80S TUESDAY...AS 850 MB TEMPS RECOVER             
TO AROUND 14C.                                                                  
SWR                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
LH...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
740 PM EDT TUE JUN 24 2008                                                      
UPDATED FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE                                                    
.SYNOPSIS (ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT TUE)...                                         
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MAINLY ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS             
THE NRN CONUS WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. ONE                      
SHRTWV JUST NORTH OF THUNDER BAY ONTARIO STILL SUPPORTED AN AREA OF             
SHRA/TSRA NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH ONLY LIGHT SPRINKLES TO THE               
SOUTH INTO NRN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE NEXT WELL-DEFINED UPSTREAM SHRTWV             
WAS LOCATED OVER SW SASK. AT THE SFC...SW FLOW PREVAILED THROUGH WI             
AND UPPER MI AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH INTO NE MN. VIS LOOP SHOWED AN              
EXTENSIVE CU FIELD OVER THE REGION EXCEPT DOWNWIND FROM THE                     
STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF LAKE MI. FAIRLY DEEP MIXING DEPTH TO NEAR              
725 MB HAS DROPPED DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 40S AND REDUCED MLCAPE              
VALUES AOB 300 J/KG...PER AREA TAMDAR SOUNDINGS. THE LACK OF                    
INSTABILITY AND REMAINING 700-600 MB CAP HAS KEPT ANY SHRA/TSRA FROM            
DEVELOPING SO FAR.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...                                          
EVEN THOUGH INSTABILITY AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TAIL END OF THE            
ONTARIO SHRTWV REMAIN MARGINAL TO REDUCE CAPPING AND TRIGGER                    
CONVECTION...ISOLD SHRA/TSRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS THE SFC TROUGH              
MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER...REDUCED POPS TO BLO 20 PCT. SW WINDS WILL              
KEEP ENOUGH MIXING GOING TO KEEP MIN TEMPS FROM DROPPING MUCH BLO               
60F.                                                                            
WED...THE SASK SHRTWV IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. SINCE                  
MODELS SUGGEST GREATER INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AS LOW LEVEL                    
MOISTURE ADVECTS TOWARD THE WRN LAKES FROM WRN IA. TEMP/DEWPOINTS               
NEAR 80/60 GIVING CAPE VALUES AOA 1000 J/KG COMBINED WITH WITH 0-6KM            
BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40KT SHOULD AGAIN LEAD TO POTENTIAL FOR SCT            
SHRA/TSRA AND CONDITIONAL SVR WEATHER THREAT FOR ISOLD HAIL AND/OR              
DAMAGING WINDS...PER SPC OUTLOOK.                                               
.LONG TERM (WED NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUE)...                                      
WED NIGHT AND THU...WILL MAINTAIN SOME CHANCE POPS FOR ANY AFTERNOON            
CONVECTION THAT LINGERS INTO THE EVENING. THESE CHANCE POPS ARE                 
HIGHEST IN THE EASTERN U.P. WHERE THE DPVA FROM THE SHRTWV MOVING               
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTERSECTS THE SURFACE TROUGH                 
CROSSING UPPER MI. IF TSRA DO NOT DEVELOP ON WED...THEN THESE POPS              
CAN BE REMOVED. OTHERWISE...THIS PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS THE AREA SITS              
IN DNVA BEHIND THE SHRTWV THAT CROSSES NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR THU               
NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THE NAM DOES TRY TO DEVELOP             
PCPN IN THE CENTRAL U.P. THU AFTERNOON WITH LAKE BREEZE                         
CONVERGENCE...BUT THE FORECAST DEWPOINTS OF MID 60S IN THE MODEL                
SEEM TOO HIGH. PREFER THE DRIER MET AND MAV GUIDANCE...AND                      
ESPECIALLY THE GFS WHICH HAS A SOUNDING FOR IMT AT 18Z INDICATIVE OF            
NOT A CLOUD IN THE SKY. ON THAT NOTE...REDUCED CLOUD COVER...WHICH              
SHOULD ALLOW FOR DEEP MIXING TO OCCUR ON THU. 850MB TEMPS AROUND 14C            
WILL ALLOW LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES (PLENTY OF LAKE                  
BREEZES EXPECTED DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA) TO CLIMB INTO              
THE LOW TO PERHAPS MID 80S. THIS ALSO RESULTS IN LOWERING THE                   
DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES BELOW LOWEST GUIDANCE AS WELL. FURTHER                  
LOWERING OF DEWPOINTS MAY BE REQUIRED.                                          
THU NIGHT AND FRI...UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SITTING ALONG THE MID                   
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL BECOME THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST...              
PARTICULARLY FOR FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. AROUND 00Z FRI...MODELS SHOW             
THE UPPER LOW IN SOUTHERN ALBERTA. AS THIS UPPER LOW BEGINS DIVING              
DOWN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE               
PERIOD...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OUT IN THE PLAINS. WARM                 
ADVECTION DOWNSTREAM OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE THE TROUGH THAT                  
CROSSED OUR AREA WED NIGHT AND LOCATED DOWN NEAR I-80 THU EVENING TO            
WORK BACK NORTH. SOME CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONTAL                 
BOUNDARY...AS INDICATED IN THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS. HOWEVER...BOTH                    
MODELS...IN ADDITION TO THE UKMET AND NAM HOLD ANY WARM ADVECTION               
STORMS FROM MOVING INTO THE CWA UNTIL FRI. THIS IS DUE TO LINGERING             
DRY AIR OVER THE CWA THU NIGHT...WHICH WITH NW WINDS OFF EASTERN                
LAKE SUPERIOR RESULTED IN A LOWERING OF MIN TEMPS IN THE EASTERN CWA            
(DID NOT GO AS LOW AS THE MET GUIDANCE...THOUGH). HAVE POPS ACROSS              
THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA FRI MORNING AND THE              
ENTIRE CWA FRI AFTERNOON. THE POPS IN THE MORNING ARE FOR THE WARM              
ADVECTION PCPN MOVING NORTH...WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN DUE TO A WEAKENING            
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET CAUSED BY DIURNAL MIXING AND AS THE PCPN MOVES             
INTO THE DRY AIRMASS OVER THE CWA. THE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH            
MAY BE MORE SIGNIFICANT IN TERMS OF THE CONVECTION...ARE DUE TO                 
FALLING HEIGHTS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW AND DAYTIME                  
HEATING PRODUCING INSTABILITY. HIGHEST POPS...AROUND 50...ARE                   
CONFINED TO THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA. SPC DELINEATES THE AREA FOR               
POSSIBLE SVR WX...WHICH LOOKS GOOD BASED ON THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS                
(1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE AND 30-40 KT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR). SVR WX WILL              
LIKELY LAST INTO FRI NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW NEARS...CAUSING FORCING             
TO INCREASE. DETAILS ON SVR WX SHOULD BECOME MORE DISCERNIBLE AS FRI            
GETS CLOSER.                                                                    
FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUE...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE            
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...BASICALLY KEEPING UPPER MI UNDER UPPER LEVEL              
TROUGHING IN THE MEAN. FIRST UPPER TROUGH...THE ONE MOVING THROUGH              
SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY...DIGS INTO UPPER             
MI ON SAT AND FORMS INTO AN UPPER LOW. CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING...             
UPPER LOWS ARE SLOW TO MOVE...AND THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW THIS WELL BY               
ONLY SHIFTING THE UPPER LOW TO JUST EAST OF SAULT STE MARIE BY 00Z              
MON. WHILE THIS UPPER LOW IS SHIFTING EASTWARD...ANOTHER UPPER                  
LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. THIS NEXT UPPER LOW               
WILL TRY TO DIG SOUTHEAST INTO UPPER MI AS IT FEELS THE INFLUENCE OF            
THE OTHER UPPER LOW IN SE CANADA. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF/GFS SEEM TO               
SUGGEST IT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL WED AT THE EARLIEST...DUE TO AN                
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER LOWS THAT NEEDS TO BE BROKEN            
DOWN FIRST.                                                                     
REGARDING PCPN CHANCES...WILL NEED TO HAVE POPS IN FOR ALL OF THE               
WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING IN. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE HINTS IN               
THE 00Z ECMWF OF A DRY SLOT WORKING IN BEHIND THE CONVECTION FRI                
NIGHT...COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPS WITH THE UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH                   
DAYTIME HEATING ON SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF                 
SCATTERED SHRA AND TSRA. IN ADDITION TO PCPN...SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE               
COOL AND BREEZY AS THE AREA GETS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW            
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND 850MB TEMPS DROP TO 7-9C.             
ALTHOUGH ECMWF PAINTS SUNDAY NIGHT AS DRY...THE PROXIMITY TO THE                
UPPER LOW AND THE GFS SHOWING SOME PCPN MOVING THROUGH RESULTS IN               
KEEPING SOME LOW CHANCE POPS GOING. CONDITIONS WILL DRY AND WARM UP             
ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY AND SURFACE/UPPER RIDGING                 
BUILD IN. 850MB TEMPS CLIMB NICELY OUT IN THE WEST...WITH READINGS              
REACHING 15C BY 00Z...AND THEREFORE WARMEST READINGS DEPICTED THERE.            
STRONGER WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS MONDAY NIGHT AS 15-18C 850MB TEMPS             
MOVE IN FOR TUE. SINCE WARM ADVECTION AT NIGHT USUALLY PRODUCES SOME            
SORT OF PCPN...HAVE INCLUDED 20 POPS ACROSS THE CWA. THE ECMWF DOES             
NOT SHOW THIS...BUT THE GFS DOES...ENOUGH TOO TO WARRANT THE 20                 
POPS. LEFT TUE DRY FOR NOW AS ANY WARM ADVECTION PCPN SHOULD SHIFT              
EAST INTO ONTARIO.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A                 
SCATTED LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL MARQUETTE                  
COUNTY NORTHEAST THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AT 23Z. THIS SHOULD SLIDE                
NORTH OF SAW BY 01Z...WITH CLOUDS DISSIPATING THEREAFTER. ANOTHER               
WAVE OF ENERGY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BORDERLINE LOW            
VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS AFTER 18Z AT BOTH SITES. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE              
LOW PROBABILITY/LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AND KEEP THE MENTION OF                 
THUNDERSTORMS OR CB OUT.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
WINDS/WAVES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT ACROSS THE LAKE FOR THE NEXT             
SEVERAL DAYS. MODELS SUGGEST THAT WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SRLY              
THROUGH WED AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS SHOULD             
SHIFT AROUND WEST OR NORTHWEST WED NIGHT INTO THU AS A TROUGH MOVES             
ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL BACK SOUTHEAST OR EAST ON FRI AS ANOTHER            
LOW PRES TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ANOTHER WIND               
SHIFT TO WRLY IS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS THE SECOND TROUGH               
PASSES ACROSS THE AREA.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...JLB                                                       
LONG TERM...AJ                                                                  
AVIATION...KF                                                                   
MARINE...JLB                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
200 PM EDT TUE JUN 24 2008                                                      
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION                                             
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WV IMAGERY INDICATED A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NW ONTARIO              
JUST NORTH OF KINL/KELO. SOME CONVECTION HAD ALREADY DEVELOPED WEST             
OF CYQT WITH THE BEST FORCING AND STEEPEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES                
NEAR 7 C/KM. OTHERWISE...LIGHT PCPN SPRINKLES/VIRGA OVER WESTERN                
LAKE SUPERIOR INTO W UPPER MI WERE DIMINISHING. VIS LOOP ALSO SHOWED            
CLOUDS SUPPORTED BY 305K-310K ISENTROPIC LIFT WERE ALSO THINNING                
OUT ACROSS UPPER MI ENOUGH TO ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER               
60S.                                                                            
MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS WITH MIXED LAYER REFLECTING TEMPS IN THE                
UPPER 70S AND AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S WOULD GIVE CAPE VALUES             
INTO THE 400-800 J/KG RANGE. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST QG FORCING AND              
UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE LEFT EXIT OF THE 80 KT 250 MB JET STREAK               
INTO NRN MN REMAINS NORTH OF THE CWA...EXPECT ISOLD/SCT COVERAGE OF             
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE                  
BRUSHES THE AREA. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE AMOUNT OF                     
INSTABILITY THAT MAY DEVELOP AS LOCAL HIGH RES WRF SOUNDINGS                    
SUGGEST DEEP ENOUGH MIXING COULD PUSH MOISTURE VALUES LOW ENOUGH TO             
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE TSRA POTENTIAL.                                            
0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES TO AROUND 40 KT COULD SUPPORT STORM                     
ORGANIZATION FOR POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE HAIL OR ISOLD DAMAGING WIND              
GUSTS IF ANY STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP...PER SPC OUTLOOK.                         
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A TROUGH OVER QUEBEC AND A NEAR             
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN CONUS. WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAVELING ALONG                
THIS FLOW IS OVER SOUTHEAST MANITOBA EXTENDING INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF            
MINNESOTA THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN. OTHER SHORTWAVES ARE OVER                  
SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND EASTERN WASHINGTON. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A             
LARGE HIGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. A              
FRONTAL SYSTEM STRETCHES FROM SOUTH CAROLINA ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN            
STATES THEN INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.                               
THE QUEBEC TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME TODAY. THE               
SURFACE HIGH WILL START TO MOVE TO LOWER GREAT LAKES. 00Z UPWIND                
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LAYER AROUND 750MB AND VERY DRY BELOW. NAM/GFS              
FORECAST SOUNDING SHOWING THIS WILL PREVAILS AS THE AIR MASSES MOVE             
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE MANITOBA AND MINNESOTA                     
SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE U.P. AS ANOTHER MOVES INTO NORTHEAST            
MINNESOTA. 300K ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN AREA OF ASCENT                   
SLIDING INTO THE WESTERN U.P. BY LATE MORNING AND MOVE THROUGH                  
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT              
VIRGA WILL FALL OVER THE AREA...BUT IT WILL NEED TO SATURATE THE DRY            
LOW LAYER BEFORE RAIN WILL OCCUR. THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR               
AND LI`S AND INSTABILITY THAT CONVECTIVE WIND OUTFLOW AND LARGE HAIL            
COULD NOT BE RULED OUT. THUS LOW POPS CONTINUE TO BE IN ORDER. WITH             
WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON THE BACKSIDE             
OF THE HIGH...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN                  
MONDAY.                                                                         
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL RACE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE              
HIGH SETTLES INTO THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY. A SURFACE LOW WILL             
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL ONTARIO WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTH END OF              
JAMES BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. A LOW CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL               
EDGE INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THE NOSE OF UPPER LEVEL JET MAX WILL              
RACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. THUS WILL KEEP A              
CHANCE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. AS DRIER...MORE STABLE AIR                 
ENTERS THE AREA...WILL REDUCE THE CHANGES.                                      
ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN CONUS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE                
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL JET MAX               
WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO            
FEED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. K-INDICES WILL BE AROUND 28.                    
FREEZING LEVEL WILL BE AROUND 14K FEET. CONDITIONS FAVOR SHOWERS AND            
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT NOT FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE              
WEAK.                                                                           
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE RACING ALONG THE ZONAL FLOW WILL TRAVERSE THE            
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONT SYSTEM WILL SLIDE               
THROUGH THE AREA. THE AIR MASS WILL BE A BIT DRIER...BUT THERE WILL             
STILL BE INSTABILITY TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE GOING.                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.                   
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED            
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH CONDITIONAL                   
COVERAGE WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT MENTION. ANY LINGERING                 
CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME                 
HEATING AND THE EXITING DISTURBANCE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH            
UPPER MI WED BUT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES SHOULD HOLD TIL AFTER 18Z.                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
WINDS/WAVES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT ACROSS THE LAKE FOR THE NEXT             
SEVERAL DAYS. MODELS SUGGEST THAT WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SRLY              
THROUGH WED AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS SHOULD             
SHIFT AROUND WEST OR NORTHWEST WED NIGHT INTO THU AS A TROUGH MOVES             
ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL BACK SOUTHEAST OR EAST ON FRI AS ANOTHER            
LOW PRES TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ANOTHER WIND               
SHIFT TO WRLY IS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS THE SECOND TROUGH               
PASSES ACROSS THE AREA.                                                         
EXPECT FOG OVER THE ERN PART OF THE LAKE TO CLEAR OUT LATER THIS                
MORNING AS SRLY WINDS INCREASE.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...DLG                                                                
AVIATION...VOSS                                                                 
MARINE...VOSS                                                                   
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1135 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WV IMAGERY INDICATED A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NW ONTARIO              
JUST NORTH OF KINL/KELO. SOME CONVECTION HAD ALREADY DEVELOPED WEST             
OF CYQT WITH THE BEST FORCING AND STEEPEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES                
NEAR 7 C/KM. OTHERWISE...LIGHT PCPN SPRINKLES/VIRGA OVER WESTERN                
LAKE SUPERIOR INTO W UPPER MI WERE DIMINISHING. VIS LOOP ALSO SHOWED            
CLOUDS SUPPORTED BY 305K-310K ISENTROPIC LIFT WERE ALSO THINNING                
OUT ACROSS UPPER MI ENOUGH TO ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER               
60S.                                                                            
MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS WITH MIXED LAYER REFLECTING TEMPS IN THE                
UPPER 70S AND AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S WOULD GIVE CAPE VALUES             
INTO THE 400-800 J/KG RANGE. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST QG FORCING AND              
UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE LEFT EXIT OF THE 80 KT 250 MB JET STREAK               
INTO NRN MN REMAINS NORTH OF THE CWA...EXPECT ISOLD/SCT COVERAGE OF             
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE                  
BRUSHES THE AREA. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE AMOUNT OF                     
INSTABILITY THAT MAY DEVELOP AS LOCAL HIGH RES WRF SOUNDINGS                    
SUGGEST DEEP ENOUGH MIXING COULD PUSH MOISTURE VALUES LOW ENOUGH TO             
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE TSRA POTENTIAL.                                            
0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES TO AROUND 40 KT COULD SUPPORT STORM                     
ORGANIZATION FOR POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE HAIL OR ISOLD DAMAGING WIND              
GUSTS IF ANY STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP...PER SPC OUTLOOK.                         
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A TROUGH OVER QUEBEC AND A NEAR             
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN CONUS. WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAVELING ALONG                
THIS FLOW IS OVER SOUTHEAST MANITOBA EXTENDING INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF            
MINNESOTA THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN. OTHER SHORTWAVES ARE OVER                  
SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND EASTERN WASHINGTON. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A             
LARGE HIGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. A              
FRONTAL SYSTEM STRETCHES FROM SOUTH CAROLINA ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN            
STATES THEN INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.                               
THE QUEBEC TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME TODAY. THE               
SURFACE HIGH WILL START TO MOVE TO LOWER GREAT LAKES. 00Z UPWIND                
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LAYER AROUND 750MB AND VERY DRY BELOW. NAM/GFS              
FORECAST SOUNDING SHOWING THIS WILL PREVAILS AS THE AIR MASSES MOVE             
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE MANITOBA AND MINNESOTA                     
SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE U.P. AS ANOTHER MOVES INTO NORTHEAST            
MINNESOTA. 300K ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN AREA OF ASCENT                   
SLIDING INTO THE WESTERN U.P. BY LATE MORNING AND MOVE THROUGH                  
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT              
VIRGA WILL FALL OVER THE AREA...BUT IT WILL NEED TO SATURATE THE DRY            
LOW LAYER BEFORE RAIN WILL OCCUR. THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR               
AND LI`S AND INSTABILITY THAT CONVECTIVE WIND OUTFLOW AND LARGE HAIL            
COULD NOT BE RULED OUT. THUS LOW POPS CONTINUE TO BE IN ORDER. WITH             
WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON THE BACKSIDE             
OF THE HIGH...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN                  
MONDAY.                                                                         
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL RACE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE              
HIGH SETTLES INTO THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY. A SURFACE LOW WILL             
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL ONTARIO WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTH END OF              
JAMES BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. A LOW CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL               
EDGE INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THE NOSE OF UPPER LEVEL JET MAX WILL              
RACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. THUS WILL KEEP A              
CHANCE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. AS DRIER...MORE STABLE AIR                 
ENTERS THE AREA...WILL REDUCE THE CHANGES.                                      
ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN CONUS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE                
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL JET MAX               
WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO            
FEED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. K-INDICES WILL BE AROUND 28.                    
FREEZING LEVEL WILL BE AROUND 14K FEET. CONDITIONS FAVOR SHOWERS AND            
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT NOT FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE              
WEAK.                                                                           
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE RACING ALONG THE ZONAL FLOW WILL TRAVERSE THE            
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONT SYSTEM WILL SLIDE               
THROUGH THE AREA. THE AIR MASS WILL BE A BIT DRIER...BUT THERE WILL             
STILL BE INSTABILITY TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE GOING.                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT VFR CIGS AND VIS TO DOMINATE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/DISTURBANCE             
MOVING OVER THE AREA COULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS            
THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE SUCH THAT I`VE ONLY                    
INCLUDED A PROB30 FOR -SHRA AT KSAW FROM 21-01Z. I KEPT KCMX DRY AS             
SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THERE BEFORE BEST HEATING. ANY                 
LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF               
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE EXITING DISTURBANCE.                                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
WINDS/WAVES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT ACROSS THE LAKE FOR THE NEXT             
SEVERAL DAYS. MODELS SUGGEST THAT WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SRLY              
THROUGH WED AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS SHOULD             
SHIFT AROUND WEST OR NORTHWEST WED NIGHT INTO THU AS A TROUGH MOVES             
ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL BACK SOUTHEAST OR EAST ON FRI AS ANOTHER            
LOW PRES TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ANOTHER WIND               
SHIFT TO WRLY IS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS THE SECOND TROUGH               
PASSES ACROSS THE AREA.                                                         
EXPECT FOG OVER THE ERN PART OF THE LAKE TO CLEAR OUT LATER THIS                
MORNING AS SRLY WINDS INCREASE.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...DLG                                                                
AVIATION...VOSS                                                                 
MARINE...VOSS                                                                   
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
742 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2008                                                      
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION                                             
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A TROUGH OVER QUEBEC AND A NEAR             
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN CONUS. WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAVELING ALONG                
THIS FLOW IS OVER SOUTHEAST MANITOBA EXTENDING INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF            
MINNESOTA THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN. OTHER SHORTWAVES ARE OVER                  
SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND EASTERN WASHINGTON. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A             
LARGE HIGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. A              
FRONTAL SYSTEM STRETCHES FROM SOUTH CAROLINA ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN            
STATES THEN INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.                               
THE QUEBEC TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME TODAY. THE               
SURFACE HIGH WILL START TO MOVE TO LOWER GREAT LAKES. 00Z UPWIND                
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LAYER AROUND 750MB AND VERY DRY BELOW. NAM/GFS              
FORECAST SOUNDING SHOWING THIS WILL PREVAILS AS THE AIR MASSES MOVE             
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE MANITOBA AND MINNESOTA                     
SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE U.P. AS ANOTHER MOVES INTO NORTHEAST            
MINNESOTA. 300K ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN AREA OF ASCENT                   
SLIDING INTO THE WESTERN U.P. BY LATE MORNING AND MOVE THROUGH                  
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT              
VIRGA WILL FALL OVER THE AREA...BUT IT WILL NEED TO SATURATE THE DRY            
LOW LAYER BEFORE RAIN WILL OCCUR. THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR               
AND LI`S AND INSTABILITY THAT CONVECTIVE WIND OUTFLOW AND LARGE HAIL            
COULD NOT BE RULED OUT. THUS LOW POPS CONTINUE TO BE IN ORDER. WITH             
WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON THE BACKSIDE             
OF THE HIGH...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN                  
MONDAY.                                                                         
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL RACE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE              
HIGH SETTLES INTO THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY. A SURFACE LOW WILL             
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL ONTARIO WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTH END OF              
JAMES BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. A LOW CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL               
EDGE INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THE NOSE OF UPPER LEVEL JET MAX WILL              
RACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. THUS WILL KEEP A              
CHANCE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. AS DRIER...MORE STABLE AIR                 
ENTERS THE AREA...WILL REDUCE THE CHANGES.                                      
ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN CONUS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE                
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL JET MAX               
WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO            
FEED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. K-INDICES WILL BE AROUND 28.                    
FREEZING LEVEL WILL BE AROUND 14K FEET. CONDITIONS FAVOR SHOWERS AND            
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT NOT FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE              
WEAK.                                                                           
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE RACING ALONG THE ZONAL FLOW WILL TRAVERSE THE            
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONT SYSTEM WILL SLIDE               
THROUGH THE AREA. THE AIR MASS WILL BE A BIT DRIER...BUT THERE WILL             
STILL BE INSTABILITY TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE GOING.                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT VFR CIGS AND VIS TO DOMINATE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/DISTURBANCE             
MOVING OVER THE AREA COULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS            
THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE SUCH THAT I`VE ONLY                    
INCLUDED A PROB30 FOR -SHRA AT KSAW FROM 21-01Z. I KEPT KCMX DRY AS             
SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THERE BEFORE BEST HEATING. ANY                 
LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF               
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE EXITING DISTURBANCE.                                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
WINDS/WAVES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT ACROSS THE LAKE FOR THE NEXT             
SEVERAL DAYS. MODELS SUGGEST THAT WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SRLY              
THROUGH WED AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS SHOULD             
SHIFT AROUND WEST OR NORTHWEST WED NIGHT INTO THU AS A TROUGH MOVES             
ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL BACK SOUTHEAST OR EAST ON FRI AS ANOTHER            
LOW PRES TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ANOTHER WIND               
SHIFT TO WRLY IS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS THE SECOND TROUGH               
PASSES ACROSS THE AREA.                                                         
EXPECT FOG OVER THE ERN PART OF THE LAKE TO CLEAR OUT LATER THIS                
MORNING AS SRLY WINDS INCREASE.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...DLG                                                                
AVIATION...VOSS                                                                 
MARINE...VOSS                                                                   
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
446 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A TROUGH OVER QUEBEC AND A NEAR             
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN CONUS. WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAVELING ALONG                
THIS FLOW IS OVER SOUTHEAST MANITOBA EXTENDING INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF            
MINNESOTA THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN. OTHER SHORTWAVES ARE OVER                  
SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND EASTERN WASHINGTON. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A             
LARGE HIGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. A              
FRONTAL SYSTEM STRETCHES FROM SOUTH CAROLINA ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN            
STATES THEN INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.                               
THE QUEBEC TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME TODAY. THE               
SURFACE HIGH WILL START TO MOVE TO LOWER GREAT LAKES. 00Z UPWIND                
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LAYER AROUND 750MB AND VERY DRY BELOW. NAM/GFS              
FORECAST SOUNDING SHOWING THIS WILL PREVAILS AS THE AIR MASSES MOVE             
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE MANITOBA AND MINNESOTA                     
SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE U.P. AS ANOTHER MOVES INTO NORTHEAST            
MINNESOTA. 300K ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN AREA OF ASCENT                   
SLIDING INTO THE WESTERN U.P. BY LATE MORNING AND MOVE THROUGH                  
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT              
VIRGA WILL FALL OVER THE AREA...BUT IT WILL NEED TO SATURATE THE DRY            
LOW LAYER BEFORE RAIN WILL OCCUR. THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR               
AND LI`S AND INSTABILITY THAT CONVECTIVE WIND OUTFLOW AND LARGE HAIL            
COULD NOT BE RULED OUT. THUS LOW POPS CONTINUE TO BE IN ORDER. WITH             
WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON THE BACKSIDE             
OF THE HIGH...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN                  
MONDAY.                                                                         
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL RACE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE              
HIGH SETTLES INTO THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY. A SURFACE LOW WILL             
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL ONTARIO WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTH END OF              
JAMES BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. A LOW CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL               
EDGE INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THE NOSE OF UPPER LEVEL JET MAX WILL              
RACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. THUS WILL KEEP A              
CHANCE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. AS DRIER...MORE STABLE AIR                 
ENTERS THE AREA...WILL REDUCE THE CHANGES.                                      
ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN CONUS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE                
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL JET MAX               
WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO            
FEED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. K-INDICES WILL BE AROUND 28.                    
FREEZING LEVEL WILL BE AROUND 14K FEET. CONDITIONS FAVOR SHOWERS AND            
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT NOT FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE              
WEAK.                                                                           
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE RACING ALONG THE ZONAL FLOW WILL TRAVERSE THE            
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONT SYSTEM WILL SLIDE               
THROUGH THE AREA. THE AIR MASS WILL BE A BIT DRIER...BUT THERE WILL             
STILL BE INSTABILITY TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE GOING.                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT VFR CIGS AND VIS TO DOMINATE. THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT               
WILL BE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/DISTURBANCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS                  
SHOULD RESULT IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HINTED AT THIS            
AFTER 17Z WITH -SHRA AND CB AS CIGS FALL TO LOWER VFR RANGE. MAY                
NEED TO CLEARLY MENTION TS IN THE TAFS AS TIME NEARS AND THE                    
POTENTIAL OF AN ACCURATE OCCURRENCE BECOME MORE LIKELY. THE CHANCE              
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GREATLY DECREASE ONCE AGAIN WITH              
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE EXITING DISTURBANCE.                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
WINDS/WAVES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT ACROSS THE LAKE FOR THE NEXT             
SEVERAL DAYS. MODELS SUGGEST THAT WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SRLY              
THROUGH WED AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS SHOULD             
SHIFT AROUND WEST OR NORTHWEST WED NIGHT INTO THU AS A TROUGH MOVES             
ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL BACK SOUTHEAST OR EAST ON FRI AS ANOTHER            
LOW PRES TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ANOTHER WIND               
SHIFT TO WRLY IS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS THE SECOND TROUGH               
PASSES ACROSS THE AREA.                                                         
EXPECT FOG OVER THE ERN PART OF THE LAKE TO CLEAR OUT LATER THIS                
MORNING AS SRLY WINDS INCREASE.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...DLG                                                                
AVIATION...KF                                                                   
MARINE...VOSS                                                                   
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
925 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...THUNDERSTORMS THAT FIRED ALONG WARM FRONT DURING THE                  
MID-AFTERNOON NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER HAS DECREASED OR HAS                
MOVED OUT INTO LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE SOLAR HEATING DECREASING                 
AND THE CAP OVER AREA...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE DEVELOPMENT                      
OVERNIGHT AS RIDGE BUILDS INTO AREA. THIS WILL GIVE FORECAST AREA               
A BREAK DURING THE DAY THURSDAY BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE APPROACHS              
THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING GIVING THE AREA ANOTHER SHOT FOR SEVERE               
WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. REST OF FCST UNCHANGED.                      
STEWART                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTING LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR KINL...WITH           
WEAK COLD FRONT DRAPED SOUTH THROUGH KHIB TO KROS. EARLIER                      
OVERRUNNING CONVECTION FROM THIS MORNING HAS MOVED EAST OF THE                  
ARROWHEAD REGION. SEVERE WX PARAMETERS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON              
FOCUSED ON THE ARROWHEAD REGION...AS WELL AS NW WI...THOUGH                     
FORCING FOR CONVECTION QUESTIONABLE OVER NW WI. MSAS ANALYSIS                   
DEPICTING TONGUE OF HIGHEST POTENTIAL TEMPS AND TD`S EXTENDING                  
NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL ST LOUIS COUNTY. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS FROM                
KELO DEPICTING LI VALUES -3 TO -4 THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.                  
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KTS WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE                   
THUNDERSTORMS.                                                                  
LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT...                    
ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN. A WARM AND PLEASANT DAY ON              
TAP FOR THURSDAY BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM AFFECTS THE NORTHLAND. STRONG               
WAVE PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY.                       
RETURN FLOW FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...AND APPROACHING                 
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRIGGER TS OVER THE DAKOTAS THURSDAY NIGHT. SRLY              
LLJ INCREASES TO 50KTS FRI MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL MN...WITH                     
ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS QUICKLY PROPAGATING THROUGH CWA.              
ATTM... BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE IS ACROSS SW CWA...WHERE MAX                     
INSTABILITY AND LIFT IS FOCUSED. SEE DAY 2 OUTLOOK ISSUED BY SPC                
FOR DETAILS. INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS ON FRIDAY...AS MODELS ARE IN                
DECENT AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES. CONFIDENCE NOT              
AS GREAT FRI EVENING...AS GFS SHOWING STRONGER DOUBLE BARREL LOW                
DEVELOPING AND DRY SLOT PUNCHING INTO SRN ZONES...WITH ECMWF                    
SLIGHTLY WEAKER WITH SFC FEATURE.                                               
WEEKEND SHAPING UP TO BE COOL AND WET AS UPPER LOW BECOMES QUASI                
STATIONARY OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. ECMWF SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH               
MOVING THE SYSTEM OUT BY SUNDAY...WITH GFS HANGING ON THROUGH                   
EARLY MONDAY. EITHER WAY...SHOULD SEE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THIS                   
WEEKEND.                                                                        
AVIATION...                                                                     
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS/CIGS ARE            
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A COLD FRONT TRACKING                  
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. THE STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH             
THE FRONT THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA AFTER                
MIDNIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH            
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE             
REGION BY THURSDAY RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR              
OUT TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT...ALLOWING FOR THE FORMATION            
OF FOG WITH IFR/MVFR VSBYS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.             
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  54  81  53  69 /  10  10  20  60                                           
INL  51  82  56  74 /  10  10  20  60                                           
BRD  58  84  60  75 /  10  10  50  50                                           
HYR  55  84  55  74 /  10  10  40  60                                           
ASX  54  80  56  73 /  10  10  10  60                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
STEWART                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
308 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTING LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR KINL...WITH           
WEAK COLD FRONT DRAPED SOUTH THROUGH KHIB TO KROS. EARLIER                      
OVERRUNNING CONVECTION FROM THIS MORNING HAS MOVED EAST OF THE                  
ARROWHEAD REGION. SEVERE WX PARAMETERS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON              
FOCUSED ON THE ARROWHEAD REGION...AS WELL AS NW WI...THOUGH                     
FORCING FOR CONVECTION QUESTIONABLE OVER NW WI. MSAS ANALYSIS                   
DEPICTING TONGUE OF HIGHEST POTENTIAL TEMPS AND TD`S EXTENDING                  
NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL ST LOUIS COUNTY. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS FROM                
KELO DEPICTING LI VALUES -3 TO -4 THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.                  
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KTS WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE                   
THUNDERSTORMS.                                                                  
LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT...                    
ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN. A WARM AND PLEASANT DAY ON              
TAP FOR THURSDAY BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM AFFECTS THE NORTHLAND. STRONG               
WAVE PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY.                       
RETURN FLOW FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...AND APPROACHING                 
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRIGGER TS OVER THE DAKOTAS THURSDAY NIGHT. SRLY              
LLJ INCREASES TO 50KTS FRI MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL MN...WITH                     
ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS QUICKLY PROPAGATING THROUGH CWA.              
ATTM... BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE IS ACROSS SW CWA...WHERE MAX                     
INSTABILITY AND LIFT IS FOCUSED. SEE DAY 2 OUTLOOK ISSUED BY SPC                
FOR DETAILS. INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS ON FRIDAY...AS MODELS ARE IN                
DECENT AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES. CONFIDENCE NOT              
AS GREAT FRI EVENING...AS GFS SHOWING STRONGER DOUBLE BARREL LOW                
DEVELOPING AND DRY SLOT PUNCHING INTO SRN ZONES...WITH ECMWF                    
SLIGHTLY WEAKER WITH SFC FEATURE.                                               
WEEKEND SHAPING UP TO BE COOL AND WET AS UPPER LOW BECOMES QUASI                
STATIONARY OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. ECMWF SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH               
MOVING THE SYSTEM OUT BY SUNDAY...WITH GFS HANGING ON THROUGH                   
EARLY MONDAY. EITHER WAY...SHOULD SEE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THIS                   
WEEKEND.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS/CIGS ARE            
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A COLD FRONT TRACKING                  
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. THE STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH             
THE FRONT THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA AFTER                
MIDNIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH            
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE             
REGION BY THURSDAY RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR              
OUT TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT...ALLOWING FOR THE FORMATION            
OF FOG WITH IFR/MVFR VSBYS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.             
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  54  81  53  69 /  10  10  20  60                                           
INL  51  82  56  74 /  10  10  20  60                                           
BRD  58  84  60  75 /  10  10  50  50                                           
HYR  55  84  55  74 /  10  10  40  60                                           
ASX  54  80  56  73 /  10  10  10  60                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
LONKA/BERDES                                                                    
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
1000 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION IN TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD SHOULD BEGIN                
TO TAPER OFF BY LATE MORNING. EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT AFT 18Z IN THE               
ARROWHEAD AS WELL AS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...WHERE FORCING AND                    
MOISTURE WILL BE MAXIMIZED. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50KT AND CAPE                
VALUES OF 1500-2500J/KG SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED SEVERE                         
THUNDERSTORMS HERE. TOOK MENTION OF TSRA OUT OF WRN ZONES THIS                  
AFTERNOON...AS LATEST RUC/NAM SOUNDINS SHOWING DRY AIR MOVING IN.               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS RESOLVING CONVECTIVE                    
CHANCES IN THE SHORT TERM. DLH FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER ACTIVE               
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MOSAIC REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS NON-SEVERE                        
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CONTINUING EASTWARD AFFECTING THE SW FA THIS                 
EARLY MORNING. ASSOCIATED VORT MAX IS WEAKENING...RESULTING IN                  
CONTINUE DECAY OF THIS MCS THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...NEXT MORE                  
POTENT VORT MAX ATTM IS PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHERN MANITOBA/NORTH                 
DAKOTA PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. NOSE OF 30+ KT LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD              
OF THIS SHORT WAVE HAS TRIGGERED SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS                
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THIS EARLY MORNING AS WELL. THIS CONVECTIVE                 
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO CONTINUE ENE TRAJECTORY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE                
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS LLJ VEERS THIS MORNING. WITH CONTINUED LOW              
LEVEL WARM AIR/THETA-E ADVECTION TODAY AHEAD OF MAIN SFC                        
TROUGH/COLD FRONT...INSTABILITY REALLY INCREASES...WITH NAM                     
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING SBCAPES OF 2500-3000 J/KG ACROSS THE                 
EASTERN FA THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MODERATE TO GOOD                 
WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 35 TO 50 KT THIS                                    
AFTERNOON...SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION.               
THIS FRONT AND CONVECTION SHOULD PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE                 
THIS EVENING...WITH COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE                   
NORTH. PATCHY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE...DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF                  
RAIN RECEIVED...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT.              
THURSDAY LOOKS QUIET ATTM WITH MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINING                   
STRETCHED ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...AND HIGH               
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. WILL SEE A STRONG THETA-E RIDGE                  
BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY IN                
RESPONSE TO NEXT DEEPENING TROUGH. STRONG LIFT...ALONG WITH AMPLE               
MOISTURE SHOULD BRING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO THE FA THURSDAY                  
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE TROUGH DEEPENS BECOMING A CLOSED LOW OVER                
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THERE ARE SOME                   
MODEL DIFFERENCES STILL WITH THE TIMING ON THE DEPARTURE OF THIS                
LOW...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE A COOLER AND WETTER WEEKEND ACROSS THE                  
NORTHLAND ATTM.                                                                 
AVIATION...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM FAR WESTERN                  
MINNESOTA THIS MORNING...TO FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA BY LATE                       
AFTERNOON...THEN THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING.                        
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS TROUGH. MAINLY VFR                    
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...BUT MVFR OR EVEN SOME IFR CEILINGS AND                
VSBYS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. THE CHANCE FOR STORMS                
WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH...AND                   
SHOULD BE DONE ALL AREAS BY MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE               
LATE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN.                                
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  83  56  80  55 /  30  10  10  20                                           
INL  81  51  82  57 /  30  10  10  30                                           
BRD  85  59  84  60 /  20  10  10  40                                           
HYR  85  56  84  56 /  30  10  10  30                                           
ASX  84  56  80  54 /  30  20  10  10                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
LONKA/BERDES                                                                    
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                            
440 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
/330 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2008/                                                    
Q-STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS MISSOURI ALONG WITH STRONG                     
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET HAS TOUCHED OFF A HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING                  
MCS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND                
CENTRAL MISSOURI...JUST OUTSIDE OUR CWFA. HOWEVER...RADAR                       
ESTIMATES OF 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN AT THIS TIME WITH MORE ON THE WAY               
ACROSS KNOX...LEWIS...MARION...SHELBY...AND ADAMS COUNTIES. HAVE                
THEREFORE DECIDED TO CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH NOON                
TODAY. IT STILL LOOKS...BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...LIKE THE SOUTHERN               
EXTENT OF THE HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL WITHIN THE WATCH AREA THIS                   
MORNING SO DID NOT EXPAND THE AREA AT THIS TIME.                                
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNING`S MCS WILL LIKELY BE HANGING                 
AROUND THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY WOULD PROVIDE A GOOD              
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. RUC IS FORECASTING               
MLCAPES GREATER THAN 1600 J/KG AND MUCAPES GREATER THAN 4000                    
JOULES BY 18Z. THIS IS OBVIOUSLY MORE THAN ENOUGH ENERGY FOR                    
THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP. NOT SURE THOUGH WHAT THE COVERAGE WILL              
BE THIS AFTERNOON SO MAINLY KEPT JUST CHANCES GOING.                            
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES FURTHER NORTH INTO IOWA TONIGHT AND                  
APPEARS TO TAKE THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH IT AT LEAST THROUGH              
FRIDAY MORNING. THERE`S STILL THE CHANCE THAT WE`LL SEE SOME SCATTERED          
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ORGANIZED MCS ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY NORTH OF                 
THE CWFA WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OVERTOP OF THE BOUNDARY AND              
INTERACTS WITH SEVERAL PASSING SHORTWAVES. UNFORTUNATELY THIS                   
MEANS MORE WATER IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER SYSTEM. NOT SURE YET HOW              
THIS WILL IMPACT RIVER FORECASTS...WHETHER THE RIVER WILL RISE                  
AGAIN...OR IF IT WILL JUST DELAY THE PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED FALL.                
EITHER WAY THIS IS NOT GOOD NEWS.                                               
THE NEXT SHOT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND                   
SATURDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS                     
MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS. HPC GUIDANCE PRINTED OUT OVER AN INCH OF                 
QPF ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. DID NOT GO THAT HIGH IN MY QPF                
FORECAST YET AS THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE QPF                  
FORECAST OUT THAT FAR...THOUGH THIS IS OBVIOUSLY A POSSIBILITY THAT             
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.                   
CARNEY                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
/1051 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2008/                                                   
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...SCT TSRA CONT TO DVLP N OF A WRMFNT CURRENTLY                
EXTDG FM NR MCI SE TO NR STL...AND ALSO AHD OF AN MCV MOVG SLOWLY               
EWD THRU S CNTRL IA. THE SWLY LLJ IS FCST TO FOCUS BOTH LOW LVL                 
TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE ADVCTN TO NERN MO LT TGT. LOOKING AT LATEST            
RADAR TRENDS WILL INCLUDE PREVAILING TSRA IN UIN OR AT LEAST A                  
TEMPO GRP OF TSRA IN UIN TIL AT LEAST 08Z WED. IT APRS THAT THE                 
TSRA OVER NRN MO WILL REMAIN N OF COU..STL AND SUS LT TGT. THE                  
BEST THREAT OF CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT NWD ON WED AS THE WRMFNT IS              
FCST TO MOVE NWD THRU NRN MO LT TGT AND INTO IA ON WED. OUTSIDE OF              
THE STORMS THERE SHOULD BE HI LVL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS                  
ALONG WITH SOME WAA MID LVL CLOUDINESS AS WELL. WITH THE WRMFNT                 
LIFTING NWD THE SELY SFC WNDS AT THE TAF SITES WILL GRADUALLY VEER              
ARND TO A SLY DIRECTION LT TGT THEN TO A SWLY DIRECTION ON WED.                 
GKS                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR KNOX-LEWIS-MARION-              
     MONROE-RALLS-SHELBY.                                                       
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LINCOLN.                        
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-              
     PIKE IL.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WFO LSX                                                                         
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE                                            
942 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...DUE TO THE ONGOING CONVECTION IN NORTHWESTERN                     
KANSAS...THIS LOOKS LIKE IT IS HOLDING TOGETHER AND COULD AFFECT                
PARTS OF OUR KANSAS COUNTIES AT LEAST IN THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS THAT         
DID NOT MENTION THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE                     
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP KEEP THESE STORMS GOING                    
OVERNIGHT AS WELL. AS FAR AS MODELS ARE CONCERNED...QPF FIELDS ARE              
GENERALLY WORTHLESS AND HAVE BEEN IGNORED.                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008/                         
AVIATION...00Z KGRI TAF. VFR CONDITIONS FOR THIS FORECAST.                      
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MUCH LATER FOR THE                  
AREA...AND SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF                 
THE TERMINAL. WIND SHOULD REALLY START MIXING AND GUSTING FROM THE              
SOUTH ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD HOLD OFF              
UNTIL AFTER THIS FORECAST VALID TIME.                                           
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008/                          
SHORT TERM...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.                                
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW REGIME ACROSS            
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH SEVERAL SMALL BUT POTENT WAVES              
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS UPPER FLOW PATTERN.  ONE OF THESE WAVES IS                 
CURRENTLY SLIDING OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS WHILE A SECOND WAVE IS SEEN            
PUSHING INTO THE ROCKIES.  RECENT OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS              
TWO BOUNDARIES OF INTEREST ACROSS THE AREA WITH A DIFFERENTIAL                  
HEATING BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM NEAR MCCOOK TO AROUND GRAND ISLAND             
WHILE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS SEEN STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN IOWA INTO            
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.  LOOKING AT RUC ANALYSIS...ML CAPES OF                  
3000 TO AS HIGH AS 4500 J/KG ARE SEEN FROM NORTHERN KANSAS INTO                 
CENTRAL NEBRASKA ALTHOUGH MOST OF THIS AREA CONTINUES TO HAVE MODEST            
TO STRONG INHIBITION. HOWEVER...WEAKER INHIBITION IS SHOWN ACROSS               
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND AGAIN ACROSS NORTHWESTERN KANSAS.  TAKING            
A LOOK AT VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY IN THESE WEAKER INHIBITION AREAS...A              
SMALL CLUSTER OF CU IS VISIBLE NEAR KGLD BUT LITTLE IS SHOWN ACROSS             
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.                                                         
MAIN QUESTION AS THE AREA HEADS INTO THIS EVENING TO OVERNIGHT IS               
WHERE DEEP CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP.  INITIAL PROBLEM WITH DEVELOPING             
DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING            
IS THAT FORCING FROM THE FIRST WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION NOW...IS          
SHOWN TO SLIDE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING.  GIVEN               
THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE PRODUCING INCREASING MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ALONG         
WITH A LACK OF ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE REGION THIS                  
AFTERNOON...CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP                 
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.  WILL OPT TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER MOST              
OF THE CWA BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE REMOVED BY THE EVENING SHIFT IF              
NOTHING DEVELOPS.  IF SOMETHING DOES DEVELOP...SEVERE THREAT LOOKS              
MARGINAL AS EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK AT 15 TO 25             
KNOTS AT BEST.  WILL KEEP MENTION OF SEVERE BUT WILL DECREASE MAX               
HAIL SIZE DOWN TO PENNY TO QUARTER SIZE.  HOWEVER...AS THE EVENING              
PROGRESSES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS A 30 TO 40 KT LLJ IS SHOWN TO               
NOSE INTO THE AREA WITH WHATEVER CONVECTION REMAINS ACROSS THE HIGH             
PLAINS SLIDING EAST INTO THE CWA.  COVERAGE OF STORMS LOOKS                     
SMALL...BUT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER MOST OF THE CWA THROUGH              
THE NIGHT.                                                                      
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT IS THEN SHAPING UP TO BE AN              
ACTIVE TIME FRAME ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS             
SHOWN BY THE MODELS TO SPIN UP OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A               
WARM FRONT SEEN EXTENDING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA WHILE A                 
DRYLINE STRETCHES SOUTH ACROSS FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST             
AREA GENERALLY NEAR HIGHWAY 283.  DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE               
AVAILABLE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WARM                   
FRONT.  THIS IS SHOWN TO PRODUCE ML CAPES OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG NEAR             
THE DRYLINE AND 3000 TO 3500 J/KG NEAR THE WARM FRONT.  A HEALTHY               
SHORT WAVE IS SHOWN TO RIDE OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS                  
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THIS TO TRIGGER ISOLATED CONVECTIVE             
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE AND MORE SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT JUST               
NORTH OF THE CWA NEAR THE WARM FRONT.  SEVERE CONVECTION                        
WISE...EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE RATHER WEAK ALONG DRYLINE             
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH VALUES OF 10 TO 25 KNTS AT BEST.  THIS            
SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION ON THE WEAKER SIDE OVER THIS PORTION OF                  
FORECAST AREA.  HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE WINDS BACKING AROUND TO A                
MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT...EFFECTIVE DEEP               
LAYER SHEAR OF 25 TO NEAR 40 KNTS SHOULD SUPPORT GOOD CELL                      
ORGANIZATION AND POSSIBLE ROTATION.  TORNADO THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL               
BUT LARGE HAIL THREAT LOOKS POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 92.                
TEMPERATURE WISE...A VERY WARM AFTERNOON LOOKS ON TAP WITH HIGHS                
RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 90S NEAR ORD TO OSCEOLA...TO THE MID              
90S TO AROUND 100 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.                                  
LONG TERM...12Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BE                  
ON TOP OF THE CWFA FRIDAY MORNING...AS MAY LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND                 
DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM ANY THURSDAY NIGHT MCS ACTIVITY. THE MODELS                  
ARE ALL VERY SIMILAR IN TIMING THE FRONT THROUGH ALL BUT THE FAR                
SOUTHEAST CFWA AS EARLY AS MIDDAY...AND THAT MAY BE TOO SLOW IF                 
CONVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT PUSHES HAS ANY SAY. POINT IS...WITH                   
CLOUDS LINGERING...AND FRONT ON THE MOVE...THE BEST CHANCE FOR                  
ANY PRECIPITATION FRIDAY WILL BE EAST/SOUTHEAST CWFA. KEPT A                    
SMALL RISK FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...IN CASE POST FRONTAL ELEVATED                     
PRECIPITATION CAN FORM...WHICH IT OFTEN DOES FOR A TIME IN                      
THESE SITUATIONS.                                                               
THE WEEKEND LOOKS ADMIRABLE WEATHER WISE. ANOMALOUSLY DRY AIR IS                
FORECAST TO COME INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEHIND COLD FRONT                      
FRIDAY...DRIVEN BY GREAT LAKES REGION LOW PRESSURE. PWAT VALUES                 
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER HALF OF CLIMATOLOGY VALUES.                     
THOUGH  DEWPOINTS MAY BE HELD UP SLIGHTLY WITH EVAPOTRANSPIRATION               
AND RECENT RAINFALL ISSUES...IT SHOULD STILL FEEL MUCH MORE PLEASANT            
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS.                                       
NEXT SHOT FOR A STORM OR TWO COULD COME MONDAY EVENING IN THE                   
WESTERN ZONES...AS A STORM MAY FLOUNDER IN FROM THE HIGH PLAINS.                
LITTLE BETTER RISK OF STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...AS THE                
RIPPLE EFFECT RETURNS WITH A WEAK WAVE CUTTING THROUGH THE RIDGE.               
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH BEGINNING                 
SATURDAY.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HEINLEIN                                                                        
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE                                            
645 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...00Z KGRI TAF. VFR CONDITIONS FOR THIS FORECAST.                     
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MUCH LATER FOR THE                  
AREA...AND SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF                 
THE TERMINAL. WIND SHOULD REALLY START MIXING AND GUSTING FROM THE              
SOUTH ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD HOLD OFF              
UNTIL AFTER THIS FORECAST VALID TIME.                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008/                         
SHORT TERM...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.                                
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW REGIME ACROSS            
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH SEVERAL SMALL BUT POTENT WAVES              
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS UPPER FLOW PATTERN.  ONE OF THESE WAVES IS                 
CURRENTLY SLIDING OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS WHILE A SECOND WAVE IS SEEN            
PUSHING INTO THE ROCKIES.  RECENT OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS              
TWO BOUNDARIES OF INTEREST ACROSS THE AREA WITH A DIFFERENTIAL                  
HEATING BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM NEAR MCCOOK TO AROUND GRAND ISLAND             
WHILE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS SEEN STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN IOWA INTO            
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.  LOOKING AT RUC ANALYSIS...ML CAPES OF                  
3000 TO AS HIGH AS 4500 J/KG ARE SEEN FROM NORTHERN KANSAS INTO                 
CENTRAL NEBRASKA ALTHOUGH MOST OF THIS AREA CONTINUES TO HAVE MODEST            
TO STRONG INHIBITION. HOWEVER...WEAKER INHIBITION IS SHOWN ACROSS               
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND AGAIN ACROSS NORTHWESTERN KANSAS.  TAKING            
A LOOK AT VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY IN THESE WEAKER INHIBITION AREAS...A              
SMALL CLUSTER OF CU IS VISIBLE NEAR KGLD BUT LITTLE IS SHOWN ACROSS             
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.                                                         
MAIN QUESTION AS THE AREA HEADS INTO THIS EVENING TO OVERNIGHT IS               
WHERE DEEP CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP.  INITIAL PROBLEM WITH DEVELOPING             
DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING            
IS THAT FORCING FROM THE FIRST WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION NOW...IS          
SHOWN TO SLIDE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING.  GIVEN               
THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE PRODUCING INCREASING MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ALONG         
WITH A LACK OF ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE REGION THIS                  
AFTERNOON...CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP                 
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.  WILL OPT TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER MOST              
OF THE CWA BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE REMOVED BY THE EVENING SHIFT IF              
NOTHING DEVELOPS.  IF SOMETHING DOES DEVELOP...SEVERE THREAT LOOKS              
MARGINAL AS EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK AT 15 TO 25             
KNOTS AT BEST.  WILL KEEP MENTION OF SEVERE BUT WILL DECREASE MAX               
HAIL SIZE DOWN TO PENNY TO QUARTER SIZE.  HOWEVER...AS THE EVENING              
PROGRESSES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS A 30 TO 40 KT LLJ IS SHOWN TO               
NOSE INTO THE AREA WITH WHATEVER CONVECTION REMAINS ACROSS THE HIGH             
PLAINS SLIDING EAST INTO THE CWA.  COVERAGE OF STORMS LOOKS                     
SMALL...BUT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER MOST OF THE CWA THROUGH              
THE NIGHT.                                                                      
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT IS THEN SHAPING UP TO BE AN              
ACTIVE TIME FRAME ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS             
SHOWN BY THE MODELS TO SPIN UP OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A               
WARM FRONT SEEN EXTENDING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA WHILE A                 
DRYLINE STRETCHES SOUTH ACROSS FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST             
AREA GENERALLY NEAR HIGHWAY 283.  DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE               
AVAILABLE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WARM                   
FRONT.  THIS IS SHOWN TO PRODUCE ML CAPES OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG NEAR             
THE DRYLINE AND 3000 TO 3500 J/KG NEAR THE WARM FRONT.  A HEALTHY               
SHORT WAVE IS SHOWN TO RIDE OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS                  
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THIS TO TRIGGER ISOLATED CONVECTIVE             
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE AND MORE SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT JUST               
NORTH OF THE CWA NEAR THE WARM FRONT.  SEVERE CONVECTION                        
WISE...EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE RATHER WEAK ALONG DRYLINE             
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH VALUES OF 10 TO 25 KNTS AT BEST.  THIS            
SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION ON THE WEAKER SIDE OVER THIS PORTION OF                  
FORECAST AREA.  HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE WINDS BACKING AROUND TO A                
MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT...EFFECTIVE DEEP               
LAYER SHEAR OF 25 TO NEAR 40 KNTS SHOULD SUPPORT GOOD CELL                      
ORGANIZATION AND POSSIBLE ROTATION.  TORNADO THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL               
BUT LARGE HAIL THREAT LOOKS POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 92.                
TEMPERATURE WISE...A VERY WARM AFTERNOON LOOKS ON TAP WITH HIGHS                
RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 90S NEAR ORD TO OSCEOLA...TO THE MID              
90S TO AROUND 100 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.                                  
LONG TERM...12Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BE                  
ON TOP OF THE CWFA FRIDAY MORNING...AS MAY LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND                 
DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM ANY THURSDAY NIGHT MCS ACTIVITY. THE MODELS                  
ARE ALL VERY SIMILAR IN TIMING THE FRONT THROUGH ALL BUT THE FAR                
SOUTHEAST CFWA AS EARLY AS MIDDAY...AND THAT MAY BE TOO SLOW IF                 
CONVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT PUSHES HAS ANY SAY. POINT IS...WITH                   
CLOUDS LINGERING...AND FRONT ON THE MOVE...THE BEST CHANCE FOR                  
ANY PRECIPITATION FRIDAY WILL BE EAST/SOUTHEAST CWFA. KEPT A                    
SMALL RISK FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...IN CASE POST FRONTAL ELEVATED                     
PRECIPITATION CAN FORM...WHICH IT OFTEN DOES FOR A TIME IN                      
THESE SITUATIONS.                                                               
THE WEEKEND LOOKS ADMIRABLE WEATHER WISE. ANOMALOUSLY DRY AIR IS                
FORECAST TO COME INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEHIND COLD FRONT                      
FRIDAY...DRIVEN BY GREAT LAKES REGION LOW PRESSURE. PWAT VALUES                 
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER HALF OF CLIMATOLOGY VALUES.                     
THOUGH  DEWPOINTS MAY BE HELD UP SLIGHTLY WITH EVAPOTRANSPIRATION               
AND RECENT RAINFALL ISSUES...IT SHOULD STILL FEEL MUCH MORE PLEASANT            
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS.                                       
NEXT SHOT FOR A STORM OR TWO COULD COME MONDAY EVENING IN THE                   
WESTERN ZONES...AS A STORM MAY FLOUNDER IN FROM THE HIGH PLAINS.                
LITTLE BETTER RISK OF STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...AS THE                
RIPPLE EFFECT RETURNS WITH A WEAK WAVE CUTTING THROUGH THE RIDGE.               
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH BEGINNING                 
SATURDAY.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HEINLEIN                                                                        
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE                                            
355 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.                               
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW REGIME ACROSS            
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH SEVERAL SMALL BUT POTENT WAVES              
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS UPPER FLOW PATTERN.  ONE OF THESE WAVES IS                 
CURRENTLY SLIDING OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS WHILE A SECOND WAVE IS SEEN            
PUSHING INTO THE ROCKIES.  RECENT OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS              
TWO BOUNDARIES OF INTEREST ACROSS THE AREA WITH A DIFFERENTIAL                  
HEATING BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM NEAR MCCOOK TO AROUND GRAND ISLAND             
WHILE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS SEEN STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN IOWA INTO            
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.  LOOKING AT RUC ANALYSIS...ML CAPES OF                  
3000 TO AS HIGH AS 4500 J/KG ARE SEEN FROM NORTHERN KANSAS INTO                 
CENTRAL NEBRASKA ALTHOUGH MOST OF THIS AREA CONTINUES TO HAVE MODEST            
TO STRONG INHIBITION. HOWEVER...WEAKER INHIBITION IS SHOWN ACROSS               
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND AGAIN ACROSS NORTHWESTERN KANSAS.  TAKING            
A LOOK AT VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY IN THESE WEAKER INHIBITION AREAS...A              
SMALL CLUSTER OF CU IS VISIBLE NEAR KGLD BUT LITTLE IS SHOWN ACROSS             
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.                                                         
MAIN QUESTION AS THE AREA HEADS INTO THIS EVENING TO OVERNIGHT IS               
WHERE DEEP CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP.  INITIAL PROBLEM WITH DEVELOPING             
DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING            
IS THAT FORCING FROM THE FIRST WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION NOW...IS          
SHOWN TO SLIDE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING.  GIVEN               
THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE PRODUCING INCREASING MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ALONG         
WITH A LACK OF ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE REGION THIS                  
AFTERNOON...CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP                 
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.  WILL OPT TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER MOST              
OF THE CWA BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE REMOVED BY THE EVENING SHIFT IF              
NOTHING DEVELOPS.  IF SOMETHING DOES DEVELOP...SEVERE THREAT LOOKS              
MARGINAL AS EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK AT 15 TO 25             
KNOTS AT BEST.  WILL KEEP MENTION OF SEVERE BUT WILL DECREASE MAX               
HAIL SIZE DOWN TO PENNY TO QUARTER SIZE.  HOWEVER...AS THE EVENING              
PROGRESSES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS A 30 TO 40 KT LLJ IS SHOWN TO               
NOSE INTO THE AREA WITH WHATEVER CONVECTION REMAINS ACROSS THE HIGH             
PLAINS SLIDING EAST INTO THE CWA.  COVERAGE OF STORMS LOOKS                     
SMALL...BUT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER MOST OF THE CWA THROUGH              
THE NIGHT.                                                                      
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT IS THEN SHAPING UP TO BE AN              
ACTIVE TIME FRAME ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS             
SHOWN BY THE MODELS TO SPIN UP OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A               
WARM FRONT SEEN EXTENDING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA WHILE A                 
DRYLINE STRETCHES SOUTH ACROSS FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST             
AREA GENERALLY NEAR HIGHWAY 283.  DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE               
AVAILABLE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WARM                   
FRONT.  THIS IS SHOWN TO PRODUCE ML CAPES OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG NEAR             
THE DRYLINE AND 3000 TO 3500 J/KG NEAR THE WARM FRONT.  A HEALTHY               
SHORT WAVE IS SHOWN TO RIDE OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS                  
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THIS TO TRIGGER ISOLATED CONVECTIVE             
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE AND MORE SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT JUST               
NORTH OF THE CWA NEAR THE WARM FRONT.  SEVERE CONVECTION                        
WISE...EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE RATHER WEAK ALONG DRYLINE             
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH VALUES OF 10 TO 25 KNTS AT BEST.  THIS            
SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION ON THE WEAKER SIDE OVER THIS PORTION OF                  
FORECAST AREA.  HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE WINDS BACKING AROUND TO A                
MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT...EFFECTIVE DEEP               
LAYER SHEAR OF 25 TO NEAR 40 KNTS SHOULD SUPPORT GOOD CELL                      
ORGANIZATION AND POSSIBLE ROTATION.  TORNADO THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL               
BUT LARGE HAIL THREAT LOOKS POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 92.                
TEMPERATURE WISE...A VERY WARM AFTERNOON LOOKS ON TAP WITH HIGHS                
RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 90S NEAR ORD TO OSCEOLA...TO THE MID              
90S TO AROUND 100 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.                                  
.LONG TERM...12Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BE                 
ON TOP OF THE CWFA FRIDAY MORNING...AS MAY LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND                 
DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM ANY THURSDAY NIGHT MCS ACTIVITY. THE MODELS                  
ARE ALL VERY SIMILAR IN TIMING THE FRONT THROUGH ALL BUT THE FAR                
SOUTHEAST CFWA AS EARLY AS MIDDAY...AND THAT MAY BE TOO SLOW IF                 
CONVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT PUSHES HAS ANY SAY. POINT IS...WITH                   
CLOUDS LINGERING...AND FRONT ON THE MOVE...THE BEST CHANCE FOR                  
ANY PRECIPITATION FRIDAY WILL BE EAST/SOUTHEAST CWFA. KEPT A                    
SMALL RISK FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...IN CASE POST FRONTAL ELEVATED                     
PRECIPITATION CAN FORM...WHICH IT OFTEN DOES FOR A TIME IN                      
THESE SITUATIONS.                                                               
THE WEEKEND LOOKS ADMIRABLE WEATHER WISE. ANOMALOUSLY DRY AIR IS                
FORECAST TO COME INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEHIND COLD FRONT                      
FRIDAY...DRIVEN BY GREAT LAKES REGION LOW PRESSURE. PWAT VALUES                 
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER HALF OF CLIMATOLOGY VALUES.                     
THOUGH  DEWPOINTS MAY BE HELD UP SLIGHTLY WITH EVAPOTRANSPIRATION               
AND RECENT RAINFALL ISSUES...IT SHOULD STILL FEEL MUCH MORE PLEASANT            
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS.                                       
NEXT SHOT FOR A STORM OR TWO COULD COME MONDAY EVENING IN THE                   
WESTERN ZONES...AS A STORM MAY FLOUNDER IN FROM THE HIGH PLAINS.                
LITTLE BETTER RISK OF STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...AS THE                
RIPPLE EFFECT RETURNS WITH A WEAK WAVE CUTTING THROUGH THE RIDGE.               
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH BEGINNING                 
SATURDAY.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z KGRI TAF. VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS                        
ANTICIPATED FOR THE GRAND ISLAND TERMINAL THROUGH THE NEXT 24                   
HOURS. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL REVOLVE AROUND A CHANCE OF                
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY THIS                     
EVENING. APPEARS COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT              
A MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR THE THE TERMINAL AREA.                            
OTHERWISE...EXPECT THREAT FOR STORMS TO SLIDE SOUTH OF THE                      
TERMINAL BY MID TO LATE EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED                    
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE                                        
340 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FORECAST FOCUS ON TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THUNDERSTORM                 
CHANCES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.                                                  
LOW PRESSURE IN WY/SE MT AND THE FRONT RANGE.  CONVECTION HAS                   
ERUPTED BACK THERE WITH SOME CU NOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NEBRASKA              
PANHANDLE.  RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE AREA NEARLY UNCAPPED LATE              
THIS AFTERNOON SO IT WON/T TAKE MUCH TO GET GOING THIS EVENING.                 
AFTER LAST NIGHT/S STORMS NO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE APPARENT ATTM               
BUT MAY BECOME VISIBLE OVER THE NEXT HOUR.                                      
WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO CROSS THE 90 MARK FOR MUCH OF              
THE AREA FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 2008 TOMORROW.  MODELS AND MODEL                 
SOUNDINGS LOOK MORE HOPEFUL FOR MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON                   
WEDNESDAY.  RAISED POPS A BIT FOR TOMORROW EVENING AND A GOOD THREAT            
FOR SEVERE TOMORROW NIGHT WITH JUST ENOUGH CAP TO HOLD THINGS IN                
PLACE FOR LATE AFTERNOON RELEASE WITH A FRONT WORKING INTO THE AREA.            
THURSDAY...A SECOND FRONT APPROACHES AND BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE OF               
THUNDERSTORMS.  FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BACK DOWN A             
FEW DEGREES AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.  DEW POINTS DROP BACK            
AS WELL.                                                                        
LOOKING AT THE EXTENDED FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... IS                   
CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING AND A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A               
RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND RESULTANT WARMING INTO THE 90S.                    
AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALSO TO BRING DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH MID                    
WEEK.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL                 
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CIGS HGHTS SHOULD BE AOA 120KFT             
AGL HOWEVER SOME CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP INTO THE WESTERN SANDHILLS              
AND PANHANDLE...WHERE CIGS HGHTS MAY DROP TO AROUND 5KFT NEAR THE               
STORMS...WHERE VSBYS MAY ALSO BE REDUCED TO AROUND 3 MILES IN THE               
RAIN SHOWERS. GUSTY WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE                  
THREATS TO LIGHT AIRCRAFT NEAR THESE STORMS. A FRONT MOVING INTO THE            
CENTRAL PORTION OF NEBRASKA WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER ON              
WEDNESDAY WITH MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON                  
HOURS.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PHILLIPS/HIRSCH                                                                 
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
313 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
DISTINCT MCV APPEARING IN SAT IMAGERY/RADAR LOOP IS AIDING TSRA                 
DEVELOPMENT IN SERN NEB TODAY.  SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS               
INDICATED WAVY ZONAL FLOW...WITH SHORTWAVE EVIDENT ACROSS ERN                   
NEB/CTRL KS/WRN OK/TX PANHANDLE...AND ANOTHER UPSTREAM IN SRN AB/WRN            
MT/NRN ID.  850MB LOW WAS DIGGING INTO SRN NV...WITH BROAD MOISTURE             
AXIS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS.  RICHER MOISTURE /12C+/ WAS LIMITED             
TO S CTRL TX AND NEAR KABR...AS WELL AS NEAR THE LOWER MS RIVER                 
VALLEY.  MCV THAT DEVELOPED IN WAKE OF MORNING MCS HAS MOVED INTO               
SWRN CWA...WITH TSRA DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD.  SOME SUN IN SERN NEB               
HAS ALLOWED DESTABILIZATION TODAY AS TEMPS HAVE REACHED THE UPPER               
70S WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70.                                                     
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE WITH CONVECTION THIS EVNG...THEN CHCS            
FOR CONVECTION THROUGH FRI.  RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES MLCAPE AROUND               
1500 J/KG IN SERN NEB WITH NO CIN LIFT...WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR              
AROUND 30-35KT.  APPEARS TO BE JUST ENOUGH SHEAR/INSTABILITY TO                 
ALLOW ORGANIZED SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WITH HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL.              
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO BE SUPPRESSED IN SUBSIDENT REGION BEHIND                     
MCV...THUS TSRA POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING FOR THE            
REST OF THE NIGHT.  SHOULD SEE TSRA DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT IN SD AS                
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...BUT APPEARS THAT FORCING                
WILL REMAIN N OF THE CWA.                                                       
MODELS AGREE IN DEVELOPING SFC LOW TMRW ACROSS WRN KS/ERN CO AS                 
UPPER WAVE DIGS INTO NRN ROCKIES...WITH WARM FRONT SOLIDIFYING                  
SOMEWHERE ACROSS NRN NEB/SRN SD.  THAT SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR               
TSRA DEVELOPMENT TMRW AFTN/EVNG AS INSTABILITY BUILDS.  DEEP-LAYER              
SHEAR IS STILL RELATIVELY WEAK IN THE WARM SECTOR BUT SHOULD BE                 
MARGINALLY ENOUGH NEAR/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED             
CONVECTION AGAIN...WITH RISKS OF HAIL/WINDS.  BETTER SUPPORT FOR                
CONVECTION ARRIVES ON THURS AS WARM FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE                     
AREA...WITH SRLY FLOW AT 850MB POINTING INTO THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE            
MOVING ACROSS THE CTRL PLAINS.  EXPECT EXACT LOCATION OF FRONT WILL             
DEPEND STRONGLY ON EFFECTS OF CONVECTION WED/WED NT...THUS DID NOT              
HIT ANY PARTICULAR AREA TOO HARD WITH POPS...BUT CERTAINLY POTENTIAL            
IS THERE FOR HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG                
BDRY.  HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD THREAT WILL BE ENHANCED IF FRONTAL POSITION             
IS CLOSE TO TRACK OF TSRA ON WED/WED NT AS WELL.  TEMPS IN THE WARM             
SECTOR BOTH WED AND THURS WILL CLIMB TO NEAR 90/LOWER 90S WITH SRLY             
FLOW AND DECENT HEATING.                                                        
COLD FRONT WILL WORK THROUGH ERN NEB/WRN IA ON FRI AS NRN STREAM                
UPPER TROUGH DROPS OUT OF CANADA...KICKING SFC LOW EWD TOWARD THE GT            
LAKES/MS RIVER VALLEY.  MADE FEW CHANGES TO DEPICTION FOR FRI WITH              
UNCERTAINTY ON POSITION OF COLD FRONT AFFECTING PRECIP POTENTIAL AS             
WELL AS TEMPS.  NOT A STRONG COLD PUSH BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT                   
CANADIAN AIRMASS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PUSH TEMPS BACK TO NEAR CLIMO              
FOR THE WEEKEND.  SFC HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN ON SAT/SUN               
SHOULD ALLOW A PLEASANT WEEKEND.  RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN EARLY              
NEXT WEEK WITH RIDGE-RIDING WAVES BRINGING ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE                
CTRL PLAINS AGAIN.  TIMING THESE WAVES IS TOUGH AT LONG RANGE...BUT             
DID INCLUDE SCHC POPS FOR TUES AS MOISTURE RETURNS AND RIDGE WEAKENS.           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR TAF SITES KOMA...KLNK AND KOFK...THROUGH 25/18Z.                            
WEAK WRMFNT EXTENDED FROM CNTRL MO THRU NRN KS. UPPER DISTURBANCE               
OVER ERN NEB KICKING OFF SCT +TSRA AFFECTING KOMA/KLNK. EXPECT                  
ACTIVITY WILL BE FADING AFTER 00-03Z. THRU THEN...OCCASIONAL MVFR               
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED AT KOMA/KLNK. AFT 06Z...SMALL CHANCE              
FOR TS REDEVELOPMENT OVER SE NEB 00Z-06Z. AFTER 06Z...OTLK IS VFR               
THRU THE REST OF THE PD.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MAYES/DEE                                                                       
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
254 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL EXIT THE            
AREA TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE                 
STATE FROM OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ABOVE                  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITIES RETURN BY THE END OF THE                
WORK WEEK AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. &&                
.NEAR TERM / THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                
AS OF 230 AM TUESDAY...                                                         
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS              
MORNING...IN RESPONSE TO THE IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE                               
DYNAMICS...TRANSVERSING THE REGION THROUGH THE BASE OF THE                      
AT THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH. FOR THE MOST PART                          
HOWEVER...THESE SHOWERS ARE SHORT LIVED AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM              
THE STORMS EARLIER IN THE EVENING...EFFECTIVELY STABILIZED THE                  
AREA.                                                                           
THE LATEST RUC MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED              
SURFACE FRONT EAST OF THE AREA 10Z...ENDING THE CHANCE OF POPS                  
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN REGION. THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER TROUGH              
ALLOWS RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WITH SURFACE RIDGING GRADUALLY BUILDING             
INTO THE AREA FROM OUT OF THE OHIO AND TN VALLEYS. THICKNESSES                  
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS              
INDICATING A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF MIXING DOWN MUCH DRIER AIR TO THE               
SURFACE...WITH A MIXED LAYER AOA 750 MB AND 1000-850MB LAYER WINDS              
TURNING WESTERLY. WILL GO BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH DEWPOINTS                 
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THIS AFTERNOON.                        
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND SURFACE               
RIDGE EXTENDING EAST INTO THE AREA TO CREATE NEARLY CALM WINDS.                 
OVERNIGHT MINS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S...SOME 3 TO 5                
DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.                                                      
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...                               
AS OF 230 AM TUESDAY...                                                         
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE SE CONUS THROUGH THE WEEK.               
FORECAST MODELS INCREASE LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES IN THE UPPER RANGE OF            
1430S WITH 850 TEMPERATURES RISING TO 19 TO 20 C. CLIMATOLOGICALLY              
THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS MODERATING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH LOWS              
65 TO 70.                                                                       
WITH CAPPING INVERSION ALOFT OVER THE AREA AND NO SOURCE FOR                    
LIFT...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT LIKELY TO OCCUR.                           
HOWEVER...IT CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT THAT A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO             
THAT INITIATES ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN WOULD NOT BE ABLE TO                    
DRIFT INTO THE NW PIEDMONT ON THURSDAY.  WILL KEEP AN ISOLATED                  
POP IN THE NW PIEDMONT ONLY.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                           
LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST.                                              
SUNDAY WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING             
THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS A BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH                      
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. OTHERWISE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO BE             
SLIGHT AND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM FRIDAY THROUGH                 
SATURDAY.                                                                       
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE UNTIL IT IS PUSHED EAST BY THE              
SUNDAY FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL... WITH              
LOWS 68 TO 74 AND AFTERNOON HIGHS 87 TO 93.                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
AS OF 230 AM...                                                                 
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO BEFORE SUNRISE THIS MORNING. SOME                     
LOCALIZED MVFR FOG UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE TODAY. OTHERWISE VFR             
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH NO CONVECTION DURING THE                 
DAYLIGHT HOURS.                                                                 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH                   
SATURDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG DURING THE              
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.                                             
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...CBL                                                                  
NEAR TERM...CBL                                                                 
SHORT TERM...CBL                                                                
LONG TERM...RLH                                                                 
AVIATION...RLH                                                                  
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK                                               
1022 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
AXIS OF CONVECTION FROM CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH WESTERN OKLAHOMA HAS             
BEEN MAINTAINED WITHIN WEAK TROUGHING NOTED IN PROFILER WINDS AND               
RUC ANALYSIS.  THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD HOWEVER ANY              
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED BE LATER TODAY KEEPING THE AFTERNOON DRY.                  
TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY WARMED THIS MORNING AND SHOULD HAVE NO                
PROBLEM REACHING THE FORECAST HIGHS.  UPDATED FORECAST WILL ADJUST              
FOR OBSERVED TRENDS WITH OVERALL CHANGES BEING SMALL.                           
&&                                                                              
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...07                                                                 
LONG TERM....21                                                                 
</pre> ok                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                       
742 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN                         
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE COMMONWEALTH              
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION                
EARLY THURSDAY. A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY SWEEP THROUGH THE                
STATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
LIGHT WIND/CLEARING SKY AND RECENT RAINFALL RESULTING IN PATCHY                 
FOG EARLY THIS MORNING EAST OF THE MTNS. WHERE MOIST LL FLOW                    
ASCENDING THE MTNS...LOW STRATUS HAS FORMED OVR THE ALLEGHENIES                 
WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG LIKELY ON THE RIDGETOPS. LATEST RUC13 RH                 
INDICATES THE MOST PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS/FOG OVR THE ALLEGHENIES                
WILL BURN OFF BY ARND 14Z.                                                      
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS                 
EASTERN ONTARIO. LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE                  
APPEARS TO BE WEAK BASED ON LACK OF SIG DOWNSTREAM PRES FALLS.                  
HOWEVER...IT/S POOL OF COLD AIR ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH               
STRONG DIURNAL HEATING TO RESULT IN STEEP LAPSE RTS BY MIDDAY.                  
SREF DATA INDICATES MODEST CAPE VALUES NR 500 J/KG ACROSS EASTERN               
PA FROM LATE AM THRU LATE AFTN...WHERE A FEW TSTMS MAY FORM. GIVEN              
COLD TEMPS ALOFT...CAN/T RULE OUT SMALL HAIL WITH ANY STORMS. WILL              
LEAN SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN MOS POPS FROM ARND IPT NORTHWRD...WHERE               
LATEST SREF DATA SUGGESTS 30 POPS WARRANTED.                                    
MODEL 850 TEMPS ARND 12C SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS FROM M70S HIGH                    
TERRAIN...TO LOW 80S SUSQ VALLEY.                                               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...                       
WILL NOT CARRY CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AS                   
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF DEPARTING SHORTWAVE SHOULD RESULT IN               
CRUMBLING CU BY 00Z.                                                            
SFC RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY                         
SEASONABLY DRY AIRMASS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL              
COOLING UNDER MCLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WIND. A BIT OF AM VALLEY FOG                   
APPEARS POSSIBLE IN THE DEEP RIVER/STREAM VALLEYS OF THE NORTH                  
EARLY WED AM. USUALLY A 25F OR GREATER DIFF BTWN AIR TEMPS AND                  
WATER TEMP IS NEEDED...WHICH APPEARS LIKELY GIVEN WATER TEMPS IN                
THE L-M70S.                                                                     
RETURN SW FLOW WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO CENTRAL PA ON WED AS                 
SFC RIDGE PASSES OFF THE COAST. SREF 850 TEMPS RISE TO ARND                     
14C...INDICATING HIGHS FROM U70S ALLEGHENIES...TO M80S SUSQ VALLEY.             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...                                  
WED NITE THROUGH FRI WILL BRING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WHILE SURFACE                  
HIGH PRESSURE HANGS OVER SOUTHEAST CONUS. A WARM FRONT WILL SLIP                
IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THU INTO FRI...BRINGING NEXT CHANCE FOR                 
SHOWERS/TSTORMS...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS LATE WED NIGHT IN THE FORM               
OF AN MCS. SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE AROUND THU INTO FRI AS WE SLIP               
INTO WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.                                   
WRAPPED UP SYSTEM MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SLOW MOVING SEMI-               
OCCLUDED COLD FRONT WELL OUT AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER LOW ON SAT. THIS               
WILL KEEP A DAILY CHANCE/SCATTERED TSTMS IN THE FORECAST SAT INTO               
SUN. PWATS INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD AND COULD EVEN SEE SOME                  
SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT SAT.                                         
UPPER LOW FINALLY SLIDES THROUGH TO OUR NORTH ALONG WITH MAIN                   
DYNAMICS LATER SUN INTO MON. PRECIP CHANCES DROP QUICK HEADED INTO              
MONDAY...AND A DRIER PERIOD WILL BEGIN AS BROAD RIDGE BUILDS OVER               
THE CENTRAL U.S.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
BNDRY LYR MOISTURE HAS PRODUCED A DECENT STRATUS LYR MAINLY ALONG               
THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS STRETCHING NW ACROSS THE NW                
MOUNTAINS. IR IMAGERY INDICATED KJST/KUNV/KBFD/KIPT SOLIDLY IN THE              
BKN/OVC AND CIGS AOA 1500FT. ELSEWHERE KAOO WAS ON THE CUSP OF THE              
STRATUS LAYER AND CLOUDS COULD SPILL OVER THE RIDGE TOPS ARND 13Z               
AND PRODUCE A BKN/OVC CIG TEMPO. KMDT WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN TOO               
FAR EAST AND WITH SFC HEATING THSI SHUD HELP PREVENT STRATUS FROM               
INVADING KMDT. POST SUNRISE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO W/NW AS MIX- LVL                 
TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST. MIXED HGT ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS AFTN                  
WILL TOP OUT ARND 4KFT. ENUF LINGERING MOISTURE AND MINIMAL LIFT                
MAY PRODUCE A CU FIELD WITH CIGS ARND 4-5KFT AND VFR CONDS. MIXED               
HGT WILL TAP WINDS OF 15-20KTS...FILTERED DOWN TO THE SFC WILL                  
RESULT IN GUSTS UP 12-15KTS THIS AFTN.                                          
AFTN INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL AND COULD POP A FEW                           
SHRA/TSRA...BUT EXPECT THIS WOULD OCCUR IN THE FAVORED UPSLOPE                  
REGIONS OF THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS. AN ISO SHRA/TSRA               
FURTHER EAST CAN/T BE RULED OUT CLOSER TO TROUGH AXIS IN EASTERN                
PA.                                                                             
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES IN WED/THUR AND SAGS CENTER SOUTH FRI.                 
VFR CONDS EXPECTED WED/THUR AND POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA IN A MID-               
LVL WESTERLY FLOW THUR EVE/FRI/SAT. WEST-EAST ZONAL FLOW REGIME                 
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP THINGS FLUID AND ACTIVE.                     
&&                                                                              
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD                                                           
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD                                                          
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD                                                         
LONG TERM...RXR                                                                 
AVIATION...BEACHLER                                                             
</pre> pa                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
859 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SCT TSRA...SVR AT TIMES...ARE MOVING INTO FAR SW SD                             
ATTM...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT/SFC TROF LIFTING                 
INTO THE WRN SD. MSAS SHOWS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVER THE ERN              
DAKOTAS...AND MOISTURE DEPRIVED KABR 00Z SOUNDING INDICATES THAT                
NOTHING SHOULD LIFT THIS FAR NE OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST NAM12 DOES                
SHOW STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE SKIRTING ALONG OUR SRN COUNTIES              
TONIGHT. WITH WATCH THAT HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 09Z FOR THE FAR                
SW COUNTIES...DID ADD MENTION OF SEVERE TO WORDING FOR THOSE                    
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. OTW REMAINDER OF ZONES LOOKED GOOD AND NO                   
EDITING REQUIRED.                                                               
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT                                      
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING              
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE               
CWA WITH INCREASING CLOUDS OVER WYOMING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS                
MOVING THROUGH THAT AREA. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS               
THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND                
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY THE SOUTHERN CWA. LLJ SETS UP OVERNIGHT                 
ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND EXPECT THIS IS WHERE ANY ACTIVITY               
WILL BEGIN. MODELS AGREE FAIRLY WELL IN SHOWING SOME FORM OF WEAK               
MESOSCALE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE                
OVERNIGHT ALONG NOSE OF LLJ. DIFFERENCES SHOW UP IN JUST HOW FAR                
NORTH COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP...AND HOW LONG IT LASTS INTO                         
THURSDAY...IF AT ALL. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE              
SOUTHEASTERN CWA FOR THURSDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY ACTIVITY THAT                  
PERSISTS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO                
LATE THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT. LOTS OF THINGS TO                  
CONSIDER WITH SVR POTENTIAL AND MAX HIGHS. IF THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX              
PANS OUT AND MOVES ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY MORNING...DEBRIS                   
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN COOLED AIR WILL PROBABLY PREVENT HIGHS FROM                
REACHING CURRENT FORECAST. CLOUD COVER COULD ALSO SUPPRESS                      
INSTABILITY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. BUT...STILL                       
EXPECTING THIS COMPLEX TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY TOMORROW                       
AFTERNOON SO THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TIME FOR INSTABILITY                  
RECOVERY. THERE WILL PROBABLY ALSO BE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO                 
CONTEND WITH DURING THE DAY TOMORROW WHICH MAY PROVIDE FOCUS FOR                
CONVECTION LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOWING BEST PRECIP                   
CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LLJ. SVR               
PARAMETERS RATHER SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY                  
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA                   
FRIDAY AND HAVE LEFT SMALL CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON THE              
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. POSSIBILITY EXISTS TO SEE A FEW WRAP AROUND               
INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE              
AREA.                                                                           
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY                                         
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLES THROUGH THE LONG               
TERM. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW/TROUGH JUST OFF TO               
OUR EAST SLOWLY BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN US THROUGH MONDAY WHILE             
A SHARP 50H RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN US MOVES SLOWLY EAST TOWARDS               
OUR REGION. SATURDAY SHOULD HAVE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS COOL AIR          
CONTINUES TO POUR ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING SURFACE LOW              
PRESSURE AREA. CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE TO BE                     
LOWERED EVEN MORE. ALSO...MAY SEE SOME CAA CU AND ISOLD/SCT -SHRAS              
ACROSS NORTHEAST SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN DURING THE DAY AND EARLY                
EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...MOST OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS               
DRY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OUT WEST BUILDS SLOWLY INTO THE                    
REGION AND FLATTENS OUT SOME BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. EXPECT                  
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THIS TIME WITH A WARM UP AS HEIGHTS                   
INCREASE. SHOULD HAVE QUITE A BIT OF UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S BY                 
MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE CWA. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE RIDGE               
WILL BREAK DOWN SOME BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH A SHORT                
WAVE COMING INTO THE REGION. THUS...HAVE IN CHANCES OF TSRAS                    
DURING THIS TIME.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z FOR ALL TERMINAL SITES. SOME                     
ISOLD/SCT TSRA MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTH OF THE KPIR                           
TERMINAL...CLOSER TO I-90...AFT 06Z...WITH LITTLE IMPACT THOUGH AT              
THE KPIR TERMINAL. LOOK FOR INCREASING WINDS AFT 15Z FOR ALL                    
TERMINAL SITES AS WELL.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...HINTZ                                                                  
SHORT TERM...TMT                                                                
LONG TERM...MOHR                                                                
AVIATION...HINTZ                                                                
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN                                                            
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
333 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT                                      
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING              
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE               
CWA WITH INCREASING CLOUDS OVER WYOMING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS                
MOVING THROUGH THAT AREA. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS               
THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND                
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY THE SOUTHERN CWA. LLJ SETS UP OVERNIGHT                 
ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND EXPECT THIS IS WHERE ANY ACTIVITY               
WILL BEGIN. MODELS AGREE FAIRLY WELL IN SHOWING SOME FORM OF WEAK               
MESOSCALE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE                
OVERNIGHT ALONG NOSE OF LLJ. DIFFERENCES SHOW UP IN JUST HOW FAR                
NORTH COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP...AND HOW LONG IT LASTS INTO                         
THURSDAY...IF AT ALL. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE              
SOUTHEASTERN CWA FOR THURSDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY ACTIVITY THAT                  
PERSISTS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO                
LATE THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT. LOTS OF THINGS TO                  
CONSIDER WITH SVR POTENTIAL AND MAX HIGHS. IF THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX              
PANS OUT AND MOVES ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY MORNING...DEBRIS                   
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN COOLED AIR WILL PROBABLY PREVENT HIGHS FROM                
REACHING CURRENT FORECAST. CLOUD COVER COULD ALSO SUPPRESS                      
INSTABILITY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. BUT...STILL                       
EXPECTING THIS COMPLEX TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY TOMORROW                       
AFTERNOON SO THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TIME FOR INSTABILITY                  
RECOVERY. THERE WILL PROBABLY ALSO BE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO                 
CONTEND WITH DURING THE DAY TOMORROW WHICH MAY PROVIDE FOCUS FOR                
CONVECTION LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOWING BEST PRECIP                   
CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LLJ. SVR               
PARAMETERS RATHER SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY                  
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA                   
FRIDAY AND HAVE LEFT SMALL CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON THE              
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. POSSIBILITY EXISTS TO SEE A FEW WRAP AROUND               
INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE              
AREA.                                                                           
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY                                         
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLES THROUGH THE LONG               
TERM. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW/TROUGH JUST OFF TO               
OUR EAST SLOWLY BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN US THROUGH MONDAY WHILE             
A SHARP 50H RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN US MOVES SLOWLY EAST TOWARDS               
OUR REGION. SATURDAY SHOULD HAVE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS COOL AIR          
CONTINUES TO POUR ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING SURFACE LOW              
PRESSURE AREA. CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE TO BE                     
LOWERED EVEN MORE. ALSO...MAY SEE SOME CAA CU AND ISOLD/SCT -SHRAS              
ACROSS NORTHEAST SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN DURING THE DAY AND EARLY                
EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...MOST OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS               
DRY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OUT WEST BUILDS SLOWLY INTO THE                    
REGION AND FLATTENS OUT SOME BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. EXPECT                  
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THIS TIME WITH A WARM UP AS HEIGHTS                   
INCREASE. SHOULD HAVE QUITE A BIT OF UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S BY                 
MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE CWA. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE RIDGE               
WILL BREAK DOWN SOME BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH A SHORT                
WAVE COMING INTO THE REGION. THUS...HAVE IN CHANCES OF TSRAS                    
DURING THIS TIME.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...NIGHT AND MORNING                      
THURSDAY WITH ONLY SOME SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AOA 8000                  
FEET. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE PIR AND ATY AREAS TONIGHT AND EARLY                
THURSDAY FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.                                 
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...TMT                                                                
LONG TERM...MOHR                                                                
AVIATION...MOHR                                                                 
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN                                                            
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
1035 AM MDT TUE JUN 24 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST            
AREA AS AN MCS EXITS THE REGION TO THE EAST. WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN               
UPPER LOW NEAR THE CENTRAL MONTANA/CANADIAN BORDER MOVING EASTWARD              
TOWARD NORTH DAKOTA. WV IMAGERY ALSO HINTS AT A SECOND SHORTWAVE                
MOVING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL LIKELY              
PLAY A BIG PART IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE             
WILL MOVE NEAR THE SD/WY BORDER BY MID AFTERNOON WHEN STORMS WILL               
BEGIN FIRING OVER THE HILLS BEFORE MOVING OFF OR REDEVELOPING ON THE            
PLAINS. LATEST RUC SHOWS VERY STRONG INSTABILITY TODAY WITH CAPE                
VALUES FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG...OR EVEN MORE IN SOME SPOTS WHICH                
LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING MANY OBS ARE SHOWING DEWPOINTS IN THE              
60S...AS HIGH AS 66 IN KPHP AT 16Z. ALSO THE CAP LOOKS TO BE PRETTY             
WEAK TODAY...SO IT SHOULDNT TAKE MUCH EFFORT FOR UPDRAFTS REACH LFC             
HEIGHTS. SURFACE OBS SHOW A TROUGH STRETCHED OUT ACROSS THE CWA                 
WHICH WILL NOT MOVE MUCH UNTIL THIS EVENING. ALSO...REMNANT OUTFLOW             
BOUNDARIES FROM LAST NIGHTS STORMS ARE ALSO APPARENT INCLUDING                  
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD. HAVE ADDED POPS FOR THAT AREA THIS                     
AFTERNOON DESPITE THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SINCE IT LOOKS                
LIKE THE WAVE WILL CROSS MORE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SHEAR PROFILES            
ALSO APPEAR WEAKER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD...BUT WITH CAPE VALUES               
NEAR 3000 J/KG...LITTLE CIN AND OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES                          
PRESENT...HAVE ADDED POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.                              
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION [325 AM MDT]...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS LOW            
PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL WY AND CENTRAL MT...WITH WEAK COLD FRONT            
STRETCHING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN. NUMEROUS SURFACE                 
BOUNDARIES LIE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...MOSTLY DUE              
TO EARLIER CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS NEARLY FLAT ZONAL             
FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CONUS. SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE                   
FINALLY DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM WEST              
TO EAST. TEMPS ARE IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S WITH LIGHT WINDS.                   
ACTIVE WX PATTERN TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS ZONAL                
FLOW ALOFT BRINGS A PARADE OF SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE REGION. TIMING              
OF THESE WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO BE DIFFICULT...BUT BETTER CHANCES               
FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING                 
HOURS...WHEN SOME OF THEM WILL BE SEVERE. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE                   
AVERAGE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S.                   
FOR TODAY...SKIES WILL START OFF MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THIS MORNING INTO             
EARLY AFTERNOON. THE WEAK COLD FRONT TO THE WEST WILL APPROACH                  
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY MID AFTERNOON...ALONG               
WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT IS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN MT NOW. STORMS SHOULD            
BEGIN TO FIRE ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND FAR EASTERN MT IN THE                     
AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE EAST WITH THE FRONT. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY              
FIRE OVER THE BLACK HILLS BY MID AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW ALONG FRONT             
WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER EASTERN MT AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO            
SOUTHWEST ND/NORTHWEST SD BY EVENING. THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS               
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH BEST THREAT BEING FROM THE               
BLACK HILLS AREA INTO NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD. MODERATE                   
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AHEAD OF FRONT WITH STEEP MID LEVEL                 
LAPSE RATES. ANY CAP IN PLACE WILL ERODE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON               
IN THESE AREAS. MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND                 
GUSTS...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR SURFACE LOW               
OVER NORTHWEST SD LATE THIS AFT/EARLY EVE. HIGH TEMPS WILL MOSTLY BE            
IN THE 80S...WITH SOME LOWER 90S ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN SD. STORMS             
WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT WITH COOL FRONT...WITH MAIN ACTIVITY OUT OF              
THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN PLACE            
FOR MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND                   
INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS.                              
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH WARM                     
TEMPERATURES AND A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR STORMS. HIGH TEMPS EACH DAY             
WILL BE IN THE 80S AND LOWER 90S...A BIT WARMER ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF            
A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT. THE ENTIRE CWA IS IN THE SLIGHT RISK                
AREA FOR SEVERE STORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS            
LIKE THURSDAY COULD BE THE MORE ACTIVE DAY AS FRONT APPROACHES THE              
AREA DURING PEAK HEATING. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LONG-LIVED SEVERE                
STORMS LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.                                       
EXTENDED...POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE INTO EASTERN MONTANA EARLY                
FRIDAY MORNING AND SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT                
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE             
CWA FRIDAY MORNING...SPREADING EASTWARD INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A                
RIDGE WILL BEGAN TO BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING DRY            
CONDITIONS AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES               
WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE                   
SETTLES OVER THE AREA.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON               
AND PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE             
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
WY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CALDERON                                                                        
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                            
1126 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH THURSDAY             
EVENING. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY BRING SOME CONVECTION INTO THE            
PANHANDLES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HOWEVER DECIDED TO LEAVE            
OUT OF TAF PACKAGE FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE LOW. CONVECTION MAY NOT                
AFFECT ANY OF TAF SITES SIMILAR TO THIS EVENING. WILL LET LATER                 
SHIFTS INTRODUCE CONVECTION AS NEEDED. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS              
WILL INCREASE THURSDAY INTO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE.                            
SCHNEIDER                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
CONVECTION DISSIPATING ACROSS THE REGION. APPEARS THE THREAT FOR                
STORMS IS DIMINISHING FOR THE PANHANDLES. RUC AND NAM DO SUGGEST THAT           
AN ISOLATED STORM MAY STILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. SO LOWERED POPS TO               
SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH 12Z.                                                      
JJB                                                                             
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008/                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO AFFECT MAILY THE GUYMON AND DALHART TAF SITES            
THIS EVENING...AND MAY POSSIBLY AFFECT THE AMARILLO TAF SITE LATER              
THIS EVENING IF THEY CONTINUE TO HOLD TOGETHER AFTER SUNSET.                    
OTHERWISE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT              
WILL INCREASE THURSDAY MORNING TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THURSDAY               
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH ONLY FEW TO SCATTERED               
CUMULUS AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED.                           
SCHNEIDER                                                                       
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE                    
MOUNTAINS OF NEW NEW MEXICO...SOUTHERN COLORADO AND ALONG A SURFACE             
TROUGH THROUGH NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THESE STORMS SHOULD AGAIN MOVE             
SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE                    
PANHANDLES IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.                                           
DO NOT SEE MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN THROUGH THIS FORECAST.                    
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES                   
AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF                 
OF THE U.S. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIVE                  
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY FRIDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO                  
DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PANHANDLES BY EARLY SATURDAY                     
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BE ANOTHER FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM                      
DEVELOPMENT BESIDES THE MOUNTAINS...SO CHANCES FOR STORMS MAY BE A              
LITTLE ENHANCED.                                                                
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WILL INCREASE SOME AS THE              
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GETS CARVED OUT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S.            
AND THE RIDGE STAYS PUT OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL KEEP THE                    
THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME THUNDERSTORMS GOING ACROSS THE                
PANHANDLES INTO MID NEXT WEEK.                                                  
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE GOING ANYWHERE               
THROUGH THIS FORECAST...SO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY               
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THREATS.                                           
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
LIGHTNING WILL BE A THREAT FOR STARTING WILDFIRES.  BUT...WITH THE              
MOISTURE IN PLACE AND LIGHTER WINDS THE OVERALL WILDFIRE DANGER                 
WILL BE LOW THROUGH THIS FORECAST.                                              
&&                                                                              
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
11/14                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                            
950 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
CONVECTION DISSIPATING ACROSS THE REGION. APPEARS THE THREAT FOR                
STORMS IS DIMINISHING FOR THE PANHANDLES. RUC AND NAM DO SUGGEST THAT           
AN ISOLATED STORM MAY STILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. SO LOWERED POPS TO               
SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH 12Z.                                                      
JJB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008/                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO AFFECT MAILY THE GUYMON AND DALHART TAF SITES            
THIS EVENING...AND MAY POSSIBLY AFFECT THE AMARILLO TAF SITE LATER              
THIS EVENING IF THEY CONTINUE TO HOLD TOGETHER AFTER SUNSET.                    
OTHERWISE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT              
WILL INCREASE THURSDAY MORNING TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THURSDAY               
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH ONLY FEW TO SCATTERED               
CUMULUS AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED.                           
SCHNEIDER                                                                       
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE                    
MOUNTAINS OF NEW NEW MEXICO...SOUTHERN COLORADO AND ALONG A SURFACE             
TROUGH THROUGH NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THESE STORMS SHOULD AGAIN MOVE             
SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE                    
PANHANDLES IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.                                           
DO NOT SEE MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN THROUGH THIS FORECAST.                    
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES                   
AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF                 
OF THE U.S. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIVE                  
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY FRIDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO                  
DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PANHANDLES BY EARLY SATURDAY                     
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BE ANOTHER FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM                      
DEVELOPMENT BESIDES THE MOUNTAINS...SO CHANCES FOR STORMS MAY BE A              
LITTLE ENHANCED.                                                                
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WILL INCREASE SOME AS THE              
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GETS CARVED OUT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S.            
AND THE RIDGE STAYS PUT OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL KEEP THE                    
THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME THUNDERSTORMS GOING ACROSS THE                
PANHANDLES INTO MID NEXT WEEK.                                                  
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE GOING ANYWHERE               
THROUGH THIS FORECAST...SO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY               
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THREATS.                                           
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
LIGHTNING WILL BE A THREAT FOR STARTING WILDFIRES.  BUT...WITH THE              
MOISTURE IN PLACE AND LIGHTER WINDS THE OVERALL WILDFIRE DANGER                 
WILL BE LOW THROUGH THIS FORECAST.                                              
&&                                                                              
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
11/14                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
114 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO INCERASE POPS SOUTHERN AREAS AND                
NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP SOME. ZFP AND GRIDDED PRODUCTS OUT.                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1244 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2008/                        
AVIATION...                                                                     
CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND WILL BEGIN TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND DURING              
THE AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS IN THE KALI AND KVCT TAFS FOR THIS            
AFTN WITH TEMPOS (19Z-21Z KALI AND 20Z-24Z KVCT) WITH WIND GUSTS 30             
KTS IN THUNDER (BASED ON SOUNDING AND OBS WITH THUNDER IN SOUTH                 
TEXAS). VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THUNDER AND GENERALLY EXPECTED                
OVERNIGHT AND THRU 18Z. POSSIBLE SHOWERS KALI AND KCRP AFTER 12Z                
(VCSH FOR NOW)...WTIH THUNDER POSSIBLE KVCT (PROB30) WHERE                      
MOISTURE...FORCING AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE BEST. EXPECT MORE WIND               
THAN HAVE SEEN RECENTLY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT MORE AND BOUNDARY            
LAYER WINDS INCREASE. HIER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY             
MVFR BR.                                                                        
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2008/                          
UPDATE...MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. INITAL                     
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEAST WATERS AND INLAND AREAS EARLY THIS                
MORNING HAS MOVED INTO THE KHGX CWFA...BUT RADAR IS SHOWING                     
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION IN THE KBRO WATERS MOVING NORTH.                     
ALTHOUGH SOME OF THIS MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE                  
CWFA DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE BEGINNING...DO EXPECT SOME TO GET INTO               
THE AREA AND ALSO THIS IS INDICATIVE OF INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND                
STRONGER THETA-E ADVECTION. ALTHOUGH SEABREEZE TIMING ISSUES WILL               
COME INTO PLAY...HAVE DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS A BIT OVER THE AREA              
DUE TO THE MOISTURE INCREASE AND CONVERGE/LACK OF CAP LATER TODAY               
(RUC MODEL SHOWING REASONABLE AFTERNOON CONVERGENCE). STILL...WILL              
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EXCEPT OVER THE NORTHEAST WHERE                     
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS BEST AND WHERE ACTIVITY IS HEADING SO CHANCE              
POPS THERE. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUDS AND MOISTURE GRIDS AS               
WELL...BUT OVERALL DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES AFTER THE FIRST                
PERIOD. INLAND PRODUCTS OUT...CWFCRP WILL BE ISSUED BEFORE 10 AM.               
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2008/                          
SHORT-TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE COMBINATION OF A                     
WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER HEIGHT PATTERN AND INCREASED MSTR (BASED ON               
GOES SOUNDER PW INCREASES OVR THE SWRN GULF/GFS PROG OF INCREASING              
PW VALUES FROM SE TO NW ACRS THE WRN GULF/ERN CWFA) AND INSTABILITY             
WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR CONVECTION DRG THE PERIOD.              
FCSTG A LESS THAN 20% CHANCE OF PCPN THIS AFTN AND A 30% CHANCE                 
FOR ACTIVITY OVR THE NERN CWFA FOR WED AFTN. EXPECT MAXIMUM HEAT                
INDEX VALUES TO REMAIN BELOW 105F TDA/WED.                                      
AVIATION...PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING OVR PORTIONS               
OF THE COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA CROSSROADS...YET PREDOMINATE VFR                   
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTN. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREAWIDE                
WED MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS EXPECTED NEAR CONVECTION.                      
MARINE...GENERALLY WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED DRG THE               
PERIOD...RESULTING IN WIND/SEAS BELOW SCEC.                                     
FIRE WEATHER...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 30%                       
EXPECTED OVR THE WRN CWFA THIS AFTN...YET WIND WL REMAIN BELOW RED              
FLAG CONDITIONS.                                                                
LONG-TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN             
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WHICH SHOWS A              
DEEP LAYER RIDGE AXIS RUNNING GENERALLY E/W...FROM THE DESERT                   
SW...EASTWARD ACROSS THE N GULF. MODELS SEEM TO BE INDICATING A                 
LITTLE MORE MOISTURE EARLIER IN THE PERIOD (THURSDAY)...BUT HAVE                
MAINTAINED SLT CHC POPS FOR NOW UNTIL A BETTER TREND BECOMES                    
ESTABLISHED. MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR RAINFALL STILL SEEM TO BE             
LATE IN THE PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH AN EASTERLY WAVE. THE EUROPEAN               
AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS WAVE...WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE...                  
REACHING THE W GULF AND S TX BY SUNDAY. HAVE NUDGED UP POPS ANOTHER             
10% FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE                     
UNCERTAINTY GIVEN THAT IT IS DAY 6 AND 7. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL                   
CONTINUE TO BE SE FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH CONVECTION FOCUSING             
MAINLY WITH THE SEA BREEZE...THEN PUSHING INLAND EACH AFTERNOON.                
PRECIP TIMING COULD BE MORE SPREAD OUT BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY IF THE              
EASTERLY WAVE REACHES THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST EACH                    
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE GULF BREEZE COMBINES WITH THE SYNOPTIC             
SE FLOW TO PRODUCE 15+KT WINDS NEAR THE COAST.                                  
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
CORPUS CHRISTI    93  77  90  74  93  /  30  20  20  20  20                     
VICTORIA          95  73  91  73  94  /  30  20  30  20  20                     
LAREDO           103  78 100  79 102  /  10  10  10  10  10                     
ALICE             97  73  93  74  96  /  30  20  20  20  20                     
ROCKPORT          91  80  88  79  88  /  30  20  20  20  20                     
COTULLA          100  73  96  75  99  /  10  10  10  10  10                     
KINGSVILLE        95  75  92  77  95  /  30  20  20  20  20                     
NAVY CORPUS       89  80  87  79  89  /  30  20  20  20  20                     
&&                                                                              
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GW/86...SHORT TERM                                                              
TE/81...LONG TERM                                                               
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
1244 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2008                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND WILL BEGIN TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND DURING              
THE AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS IN THE KALI AND KVCT TAFS FOR THIS            
AFTN WITH TEMPOS (19Z-21Z KALI AND 20Z-24Z KVCT) WITH WIND GUSTS 30             
KTS IN THUNDER (BASED ON SOUNDING AND OBS WITH THUNDER IN SOUTH                 
TEXAS). VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THUNDER AND GENERALLY EXPECTED                
OVERNIGHT AND THRU 18Z. POSSIBLE SHOWERS KALI AND KCRP AFTER 12Z                
(VCSH FOR NOW)...WTIH THUNDER POSSIBLE KVCT (PROB30) WHERE                      
MOISTURE...FORCING AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE BEST. EXPECT MORE WIND               
THAN HAVE SEEN RECENTLY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT MORE AND BOUNDARY            
LAYER WINDS INCREASE. HIER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY             
MVFR BR.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2008/                         
UPDATE...MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. INITAL                     
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEAST WATERS AND INLAND AREAS EARLY THIS                
MORNING HAS MOVED INTO THE KHGX CWFA...BUT RADAR IS SHOWING                     
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION IN THE KBRO WATERS MOVING NORTH.                     
ALTHOUGH SOME OF THIS MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE                  
CWFA DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE BEGINNING...DO EXPECT SOME TO GET INTO               
THE AREA AND ALSO THIS IS INDICATIVE OF INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND                
STRONGER THETA-E ADVECTION. ALTHOUGH SEABREEZE TIMING ISSUES WILL               
COME INTO PLAY...HAVE DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS A BIT OVER THE AREA              
DUE TO THE MOISTURE INCREASE AND CONVERGE/LACK OF CAP LATER TODAY               
(RUC MODEL SHOWING REASONABLE AFTERNOON CONVERGENCE). STILL...WILL              
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EXCEPT OVER THE NORTHEAST WHERE                     
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS BEST AND WHERE ACTIVITY IS HEADING SO CHANCE              
POPS THERE. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUDS AND MOISTURE GRIDS AS               
WELL...BUT OVERALL DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES AFTER THE FIRST                
PERIOD. INLAND PRODUCTS OUT...CWFCRP WILL BE ISSUED BEFORE 10 AM.               
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2008/                          
SHORT-TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE COMBINATION OF A                     
WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER HEIGHT PATTERN AND INCREASED MSTR (BASED ON               
GOES SOUNDER PW INCREASES OVR THE SWRN GULF/GFS PROG OF INCREASING              
PW VALUES FROM SE TO NW ACRS THE WRN GULF/ERN CWFA) AND INSTABILITY             
WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR CONVECTION DRG THE PERIOD.              
FCSTG A LESS THAN 20% CHANCE OF PCPN THIS AFTN AND A 30% CHANCE                 
FOR ACTIVITY OVR THE NERN CWFA FOR WED AFTN. EXPECT MAXIMUM HEAT                
INDEX VALUES TO REMAIN BELOW 105F TDA/WED.                                      
AVIATION...PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING OVR PORTIONS               
OF THE COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA CROSSROADS...YET PREDOMINATE VFR                   
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTN. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREAWIDE                
WED MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS EXPECTED NEAR CONVECTION.                      
MARINE...GENERALLY WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED DRG THE               
PERIOD...RESULTING IN WIND/SEAS BELOW SCEC.                                     
FIRE WEATHER...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 30%                       
EXPECTED OVR THE WRN CWFA THIS AFTN...YET WIND WL REMAIN BELOW RED              
FLAG CONDITIONS.                                                                
LONG-TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN             
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WHICH SHOWS A              
DEEP LAYER RIDGE AXIS RUNNING GENERALLY E/W...FROM THE DESERT                   
SW...EASTWARD ACROSS THE N GULF. MODELS SEEM TO BE INDICATING A                 
LITTLE MORE MOISTURE EARLIER IN THE PERIOD (THURSDAY)...BUT HAVE                
MAINTAINED SLT CHC POPS FOR NOW UNTIL A BETTER TREND BECOMES                    
ESTABLISHED. MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR RAINFALL STILL SEEM TO BE             
LATE IN THE PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH AN EASTERLY WAVE. THE EUROPEAN               
AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS WAVE...WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE...                  
REACHING THE W GULF AND S TX BY SUNDAY. HAVE NUDGED UP POPS ANOTHER             
10% FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE                     
UNCERTAINTY GIVEN THAT IT IS DAY 6 AND 7. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL                   
CONTINUE TO BE SE FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH CONVECTION FOCUSING             
MAINLY WITH THE SEA BREEZE...THEN PUSHING INLAND EACH AFTERNOON.                
PRECIP TIMING COULD BE MORE SPREAD OUT BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY IF THE              
EASTERLY WAVE REACHES THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST EACH                    
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE GULF BREEZE COMBINES WITH THE SYNOPTIC             
SE FLOW TO PRODUCE 15+KT WINDS NEAR THE COAST.                                  
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
CORPUS CHRISTI    93  77  90  74  93  /  20  20  20  20  20                     
VICTORIA          94  73  91  73  94  /  30  20  30  20  20                     
LAREDO           103  78 100  79 102  /  10  10  10  10  10                     
ALICE             97  73  93  74  96  /  20  20  20  20  20                     
ROCKPORT          91  80  88  79  88  /  30  20  20  20  20                     
COTULLA          100  73  96  75  99  /  10  10  10  10  10                     
KINGSVILLE        95  75  92  77  95  /  20  20  20  20  20                     
NAVY CORPUS       89  80  87  79  89  /  20  20  20  20  20                     
&&                                                                              
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GW/86...SHORT TERM                                                              
TE/81...LONG TERM                                                               
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
936 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. INITAL                    
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEAST WATERS AND INLAND AREAS EARLY THIS                
MORNING HAS MOVED INTO THE KHGX CWFA...BUT RADAR IS SHOWING                     
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION IN THE KBRO WATERS MOVING NORTH.                     
ALTHOUGH SOME OF THIS MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE                  
CWFA DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE BEGINNING...DO EXPECT SOME TO GET INTO               
THE AREA AND ALSO THIS IS INDICATIVE OF INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND                
STRONGER THETA-E ADVECTION. ALTHOUGH SEABREEZE TIMING ISSUES WILL               
COME INTO PLAY...HAVE DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS A BIT OVER THE AREA              
DUE TO THE MOISTURE INCREASE AND CONVERGE/LACK OF CAP LATER TODAY               
(RUC MODEL SHOWING REASONABLE AFTERNOON CONVERGENCE). STILL...WILL              
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EXCEPT OVER THE NORTHEAST WHERE                     
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS BEST AND WHERE ACTIVITY IS HEADING SO CHANCE              
POPS THERE. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUDS AND MOISTURE GRIDS AS               
WELL...BUT OVERALL DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES AFTER THE FIRST                
PERIOD. INLAND PRODUCTS OUT...CWFCRP WILL BE ISSUED BEFORE 10 AM.               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2008/                         
SHORT-TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE COMBINATION OF A                     
WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER HEIGHT PATTERN AND INCREASED MSTR (BASED ON               
GOES SOUNDER PW INCREASES OVR THE SWRN GULF/GFS PROG OF INCREASING              
PW VALUES FROM SE TO NW ACRS THE WRN GULF/ERN CWFA) AND INSTABILITY             
WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR CONVECTION DRG THE PERIOD.              
FCSTG A LESS THAN 20% CHANCE OF PCPN THIS AFTN AND A 30% CHANCE                 
FOR ACTIVITY OVR THE NERN CWFA FOR WED AFTN. EXPECT MAXIMUM HEAT                
INDEX VALUES TO REMAIN BELOW 105F TDA/WED.                                      
AVIATION...PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING OVR PORTIONS               
OF THE COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA CROSSROADS...YET PREDOMINATE VFR                   
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTN. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREAWIDE                
WED MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS EXPECTED NEAR CONVECTION.                      
MARINE...GENERALLY WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED DRG THE               
PERIOD...RESULTING IN WIND/SEAS BELOW SCEC.                                     
FIRE WEATHER...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 30%                       
EXPECTED OVR THE WRN CWFA THIS AFTN...YET WIND WL REMAIN BELOW RED              
FLAG CONDITIONS.                                                                
LONG-TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN             
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WHICH SHOWS A              
DEEP LAYER RIDGE AXIS RUNNING GENERALLY E/W...FROM THE DESERT                   
SW...EASTWARD ACROSS THE N GULF. MODELS SEEM TO BE INDICATING A                 
LITTLE MORE MOISTURE EARLIER IN THE PERIOD (THURSDAY)...BUT HAVE                
MAINTAINED SLT CHC POPS FOR NOW UNTIL A BETTER TREND BECOMES                    
ESTABLISHED. MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR RAINFALL STILL SEEM TO BE             
LATE IN THE PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH AN EASTERLY WAVE. THE EUROPEAN               
AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS WAVE...WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE...                  
REACHING THE W GULF AND S TX BY SUNDAY. HAVE NUDGED UP POPS ANOTHER             
10% FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE                     
UNCERTAINTY GIVEN THAT IT IS DAY 6 AND 7. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL                   
CONTINUE TO BE SE FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH CONVECTION FOCUSING             
MAINLY WITH THE SEA BREEZE...THEN PUSHING INLAND EACH AFTERNOON.                
PRECIP TIMING COULD BE MORE SPREAD OUT BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY IF THE              
EASTERLY WAVE REACHES THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST EACH                    
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE GULF BREEZE COMBINES WITH THE SYNOPTIC             
SE FLOW TO PRODUCE 15+KT WINDS NEAR THE COAST.                                  
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
CORPUS CHRISTI    93  77  90  74  93  /  20  20  20  20  20                     
VICTORIA          94  73  91  73  94  /  30  20  30  20  20                     
LAREDO           103  78 100  79 102  /  10  10  10  10  10                     
ALICE             97  73  93  74  96  /  20  20  20  20  20                     
ROCKPORT          91  80  88  79  88  /  30  20  20  20  20                     
COTULLA          100  73  96  75  99  /  10  10  10  10  10                     
KINGSVILLE        95  75  92  77  95  /  20  20  20  20  20                     
NAVY CORPUS       89  80  87  79  89  /  20  20  20  20  20                     
&&                                                                              
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GW/86...SHORT TERM                                                              
TE/81...LONG TERM                                                               
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
745 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
QUITE AN AIRMASS DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SEVERAL DIFFERENT WEAK FRONTAL              
ZONES ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. WEAK NE/SW ORIENTED COLD FRONT              
/A REFLECTION OF DEPARTING ONTARIO CANADA HEIGHT FALLS/ IS                      
SHIFTING STEADILY INTO THE FORECAST AREA. 26.00Z KMPX RAOB WAS A                
JAW-DROPPER IN THE MAIN SUBSIDENCE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH               
PWATS CUT IN HALF /1.2 TO 0.6 INCH/ AND RATHER DEEP NWLY FLOW.                  
CONTRAST THIS...TO AIRMASS SOUTH OF WEAK/DIFFUSE WARM FRONTAL                   
STRUCTURE FROM WHERE IT INTERSECTS COLD FRONT IN NWRN IA...DOWN                 
ALONG I-80 TOWARD MUSCATINE IOWA....WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER                
70S AND SBCAPES TOWARD 5000 J/KG ARE COMMON. NO SURPRISE...WITH                 
THE ADDITION OF SUBTLE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION /MCV/ HITTING THE                  
INSTABILITY GRADIENT IN PLACE FROM SRN IA INTO NRN IA THAT                      
EXPLOSIVE DEEP CONVECTION HAS OCCURRED...ESPECIALLY ALONG WARM                  
FRONTAL STRUCTURE OVER CNTL IA...WHERE GOLFBALL HAIL HAS BEEN                   
OBSERVED. SHORT RANGE LOCAL WRF-BASED 13KM RUC MODEL...AGREES                   
WHOLEHEARTEDLY WITH 26.15Z SREF PROBS THAT THIS COMPLEX OF SCT                  
STORMS IN CNTL IA WILL SINK SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AS IT MATURES THIS                 
EVENING. EARLIER E-W BAND OF CONVECTION HANCOCK/CERRO GORDO COUNTY              
HAS FORMED A COLD POOL IS NOW PROPAGATING SOUTH/EAST WITH MCV                   
TAKING MAIN ECHOES JUST SOUTHWEST OF CCY/OLZ AREAS. MAY GET QUITE MESSY         
IN CNTL IA TONIGHT GIVEN MERGING MCS CLUSTERS AND HEAVY RAIN. GIVEN             
TRENDS IN 26.18Z WRF/GFS OF SIGNIFICANT DRYING IN THE SOUNDINGS                 
NORTH OF I-90...EXPECT MUCH OF RAIN CHANCES REST OF NIGHT TO BE                 
CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTH. COULD STILL POP A SHOWER IN THE FAR                  
NORTH WITH COLD FRONT...BUT CUMULUS FIELD IS LOSING ORGANIZATION.               
UPDATED FORECAST/HAZ WEATHER OUTLOOK IS OUT.                                    
BINAU                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008/                         
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT                                     
FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE CONTINUE TO BE CONVECTION POTENTIAL              
AND RAIN AMOUNTS.                                                               
DATA ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON HAD AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER                   
NORTHERN MN WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THROUGH WESTERN             
IA INTO EASTERN NE. MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR/VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY               
SHOWED A REMNANT MVC MEANDERING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST IA. A FEW             
LIGHT SHRA SHOWING UP ON THE RADAR MOSAIC ASSOCIATED WITH THIS                  
FEATURE...BUT NO GROUND REPORTS THUS FAR. VIS SATELLITE ALSO SHOWING            
SCATTERED CU FIELD IN WEAK SURFACE/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE            
TROUGH ACROSS MN. TEMPERATURES MORE INDICATIVE OF SUMMER THIS                   
AFTERNOON WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH DEW POINTS             
IN THE 60S. CURRENTLY SPC MESOANALYSIS TOOL SHOWING 100MB ML CAPE IN            
THE 500-1500J/KG RANGE ACROSS THE AREA WITH ALMOST NIL CIN.                     
25.12Z GFS/NAM STILL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THOUGH THE PERIOD WITH            
SPEED AND INTENSITY OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES AFFECTING THE AREA               
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DIFFERENCES ARISE IN PLACEMENT AND AMOUNT OF                
RAINFALL. CONTINUED TO TAKE A BLEND APPROACH AS FAR AS FINAL QPF                
PLACEMENT/AMOUNT WAS CONCERNED.                                                 
GFS/NAM/SREF ALL HINTING AT SOME CONVECTION ALONG THE TROUGH AS IT              
MOVES FROM MN THROUGH WI THIS EVENING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS                  
INDICATING SOME DECENT SUBSIDENCE/DRYING BEHIND THIS TROUGH AS IT               
SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. SO EXPECT                       
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO BE CONFINED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WHERE                 
TROUGH WILL LAY UP AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT                
BULK OF 925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT TONIGHT WILL BE SOUTH OF                   
I-80...SO RESULTANT BULK OF SHRA/TS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA.            
BOTTOM LINE...MAINTAINED SMALL CHANCES OF SHRA/TS ACROSS THE NORTH              
THIS EVENING...THEN CONFINED SHRA/TS CHANCES TO FAR SOUTH WHERE THE             
TROUGH WILL LAY UP COMBINED WITH NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF MOISTURE                 
TRANSPORT. NOT TOO CONCERNED WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL. BEST OPPORTUNITY            
WOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTH THIS EVENING WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER BULK               
SHEAR AND CAPE IN THE 1000-1500J/KG WILL EXIST. AFTER MIDNIGHT                  
ACROSS THE SOUTH...ML CAPE DIMINISHES INTO THE 500-1000J/KG                     
RANGE...PRETTY MINIMAL FOR SEVERE THREAT.                                       
FOR THURSDAY...THE TROUGH STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD BACK INTO THE                
AREA AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.                  
BETTER 925-850MB TRANSPORT ADVECTS INTO/OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY               
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR INCREASING SHRA/TS CHANCES. BETTER               
CHANCES WILL EXIST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES TO             
THE NORTHEAST. NAM INDICATING ML CAPE IN THE 1500-2000J/KG RANGE                
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...FAVORABLE BULK SHEAR REMAINS              
WEST OF THE AREA. SO...EXPECT SCATTERED SHRA/TS ALONG THE FRONTAL               
BOUNDARY WITH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...BUT SEVERE THREAT SEEMS                    
MITIGATED BY LACK OF GOOD SHEAR. CANNOT HOWEVER RULE OUT SOME SEVERE            
HAIL WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.                               
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT             
OF THE PLAINS WILL LIFT THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS                 
INDICATING MODERATE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE FRONT AS              
IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH 0-3KM MUCAPE INCREASING INTO THE                 
2500-3000J/KG RANGE AND 0-3KM BULK SHEAR INCREASING INTO THE 25 TO              
35KT RANGE. SO...EXPECTING A GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELIHOOD OF SHRA/TS               
ACTIVITY WITH PERHAPS A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING LARGE               
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. IN                           
ADDITION...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVERING IN THE 1.5 TO 2.0            
INCH RANGE...HEAVY POCKETS OF RAINFALL IS ALSO LIKELY. HEAVY                    
RAINFALL THREAT IS DETAILED IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.                     
THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND MOVE ALONG THE CANADA/MN BORDER                 
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE                   
QUESTION BECOMES ON HOW FAST THE ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER FROM                    
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING CONVECTION. BOTH NAM AND GFS                      
INDICATING COLD FRONT WILL BE ON TOP OF US BY NOON WITH MUCAPE                  
VALUES INCREASING INTO THE 2500-4500J/KG RANGE. BULK SHEAR ALSO                 
APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCTION. HELICITY IN              
THE LOWEST 3KM ALSO POINTS TOWARD THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO OR               
TWO. THE FRONT AND BULK OF SHRA TS ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKE IT WILL                
MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING.                              
FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE LOW WILL BECOME VERTICALLY            
STACKED OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO WITH COLD POOL CIRCULATING OVERHEAD.             
THIS PRODUCES STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SHRA/TS CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA             
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.                                                            
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY                                            
25.00Z ECMWF/25.06Z GFS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY WITH            
UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA AS A RIDGE BUILD IN FROM             
THE PLAINS. CONTINUED SHRA/ISOLD T CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS              
THE AREA REMAINS IN WESTERN PERIPHERY OF COLD POOL ALOFT.                       
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH SCATTERED                      
PRECIPITATION AND MIXING OF 5-6C AIR FROM 850MB. WITH HEIGHTS                   
BUILDING ON MONDAY AND SUBSIDENCE...IT SHOULD BE DRY WITH HIGHS                 
REBOUNDING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER 70S TO                    
LOWER/MIDDLE 80S. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM A COUPLE MORE              
DEGREES TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. BY                           
WEDNESDAY...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HINT AT A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE                    
TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND AFFECT            
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TS.              
AVIATION...                                                                     
A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS BOTH             
THE RST AND LSE TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK               
MESOSCALE VORTEX OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA             
WILL MOVE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND INTO NORTHERN IOWA THIS EVENING              
AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG             
THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE VORTEX THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO                
CONCERNS WITH TIMING OF THE FRONT AND SCATTER IN NATURE OF                      
CONVECTION HAVE KEPT VCSH AT BOTH RST AND LSE AFTER 22-23Z. BOTH THE            
LATEST 25.12Z NAM AND GFS INDICATE SURFACE COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO              
NORTHERN IOWA AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. WITH THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE            
CONVERGENCE WELL SOUTH OF TAF SITES...HAVE INTRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS             
AND SCATTERED CLOUDS AFTER 09Z.                                                 
HYDROLOGY...                                                                    
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL MAINLY FROM             
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING               
INTO 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE AND BETTER THUNDERSTORM ENVIRONMENT TO                 
FOCUS HEAVIER RAINS. A WARM FRONT MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH               
THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL PROVIDE THIS ENVIRONMENT.                 
HOWEVER...OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL             
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE BULK OF THIS            
FALLING IN THE THURSDAY TROUGH FRIDAY TIME FRAME. BELIEVE SOME                  
FOCUSED 2 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT EXACT AREA AND TIMING            
IS STILL HARD TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME. RIGHT NO IT APPEARS AREAS               
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90 WILL BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE FOR HEAVIER                    
RAINFALL POTENTIAL. BULK OF THIS AREA HAS HAD SOME DRYING OVER THE              
PAST FEW DAYS WITH SOILS NOW CAPABLE OF ABSORBING 1 TO 2 INCHES                 
BEFORE RUNOFF OCCURS INTO STREAMS AND CREEKS. HOWEVER...IF INTENSE              
ENOUGH...RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE RUNOFF PROBLEMS QUICKER IN STEEPER              
TERRAIN AREAS. AS A RESULT WILL RE-ISSUE AN ESF TO ADDRESS THE HEAVY            
RAIN THREAT AND POTENTIAL FOR RUNOFF PROBLEMS.                                  
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
01/01                                                                           
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
252 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
MCV ACROSS LOWER MI SHIFTING AWAY FROM SRN WI/N IL. RUC ANALYSIS DOES           
SHOW WEAK VORT LOBE HOWEVER SUBSIDENCE FIELD LEFT BEHIND BY                     
DEPARTING VORT SEEMS TO BE PUTTING THE KIBOSH ON VERTICAL                       
DEVELOPMENT. WITH SURFACE FRONT APPROACHING LATER TONIGHT MAY BE                
ENUF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH WEAKENING SUBSIDENCE TO ALLOW                    
SOMETHING TO FIRE. ALSO WATCHING INTERESTING LOOKING CLOUD MASS                 
ACRS NRN IA WORKING EWD. NAM IS DRY AND GFS IS WET...ESPECIALLY                 
OVER THE SRN CWA...SO WILL TRIM GFS MOS POPS...MUCH LIKE LAST                   
NIGHT.                                                                          
APPROACHING FRONT SHOULD STALL OVER FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN OR                   
NORTHERN ILLINOIS THURSDAY MORNING. NAM SHOWS CAPES AROUND 1700                 
J/KG THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER MID LEVELS RATHER DRY...AND LOW                
LEVEL MOISTURE IS SHALLOW. ALSO NO TRIGGER WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL                  
FLOW. MODELS DON`T GENERATE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION                       
THURSDAY. CRAS MODEL ALSO SHOWS NO DEEP CONVECTION UNTIL POSSIBLY               
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE FAR SOUTH...CLOSE TO THE EXPECTED              
SURFACE BOUNDARY. 850 MB FLOW INCREASES ACROSS NORTHEAST                        
IOWA...WITH SOME CONVERGENCE AS WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH. THIS                   
WOULD BRING A POTENTIAL OF A MCS. SOME HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE                  
GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.70 INCHES.               
BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE                 
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHES                 
FROM THE NORTHWEST. UPPER DIFLUENCE ALONG WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY             
AND INCREASING SEVERE PARAMETERS. EHI VALUES RISE TO 2.75 WITH                  
BULK RICHARDSON NUMBERS AROUND 20. THUS SOME SUPER CELL POTENTIAL               
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE                
SOME TORNADO THREAT PROVIDING THE CAP BREAKS DURING OR LATE AFTERNOON.          
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
ECMWF SHOWED A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH A CUTOFF LOW PUSHING                  
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WITH THE COLD               
AIR IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE RESULTANT AFTERNOON INSTABILITY                   
SHOULD PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. BOTH               
THE ECMWF AND GFS KEEPS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT                 
LAKES REGION MONDAY...CLOSE ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON                    
SHOWERS.                                                                        
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER               
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHOULD THEN BRING QUIET WEATHER TO                 
THE AREA. THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A SHORTWAVE                  
OVER THE WEST BY MID WEEK...BUT THIS WOULD BECOME AN ISSUE MORE                 
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WILL GO MAINLY VFR THIS PERIOD. MVFR CU FIELD EXPECTED                          
TO DISSIPATE. MAY SEE SOME HAZE/LIGHT FOG AS WELL NOW THAT WE HAVE              
SOME HIGHER DEWS OVERTAKING THE CWA. CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION LOW AT            
THE MOMENT SO WILL OPT TO LEAVE OUT OF TAFS...HOWEVER APPCH FRONT               
LATER IN THE NIGHT MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS.                                        
&&                                                                              
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT/LONG TERM...06/HENTZ                                                      
AVIATION/MARINE...10/COLLAR                                                     
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL                                               
455 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...RUC ANALYSIS AND THE RECENT                    
GUIDANCE INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA                   
PENINSULA. A PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS CONTINUES             
TO COME ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ACROSS THE GULF AND OVER THE           
SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WELL             
ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN GULF. A TROPICAL WAVE SOUTH OF CUBA                
IS ALSO INTERACTING WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL              
TROUGH AND ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IN THE                  
SOUTHEASTERN GULF.                                                              
RECENT GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE MID LEVELS WILL BE DRY IN THE                
SHORT TERM...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND                   
ASSOCIATED CIRRUS PERSISTING ACROSS THE REGION FOR AT LEAST THE                 
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE SOUTH                      
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND LACK OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE...ONLY                      
EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WITH THE                  
EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS FAVORING THE WESTERN              
INTERIOR SECTIONS AND THE NAPLES AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TREND                
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT              
PWATS SHOULD BE AROUND 1.7 INCHES THROUGH THIS PERIOD...SO                      
ISOLATED AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE EACH                      
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT AGAIN FAVORING THE WESTERN                  
INTERIOR AND MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.                                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL                 
PERSIST OVER THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN GENERAL THE               
WINDS OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY ARE              
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE...WITH 10 TO 15 KNOTS                  
ELSEWHERE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE OFF SHORE GULF WATERS WILL              
BE NEAR 10 KNOTS WITH PERIODS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS POSSIBLE.                       
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WEST PALM BEACH  90  77  90  77 / 30 20 20 10                                   
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  79  90  80 / 30 20 20 10                                   
MIAMI            90  79  91  78 / 20 20 20 10                                   
NAPLES           91  74  93  75 / 40 20 30 10                                   
&&                                                                              
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
AM...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LONG TERM...60/BD                                                               
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...47/RHG                                                    
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
1249 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
INCLUSION OF 06Z TAFS AND CANCELLATION OF SVR TSTM WATCH 606.                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
THE FORECAST TONIGHT IS QUITE COMPLEX AS THERE ARE SEVERAL FEATURES             
OVER/NEAR THE CWA.  CURRENTLY WE ARE QUITE UNSTABLE WITH 4000 J/KG              
OF CAPE OVER THE SW THIRD OF IA BUT SHEAR IS QUITE WEAK...GENERALLY             
20-25KTS OR LESS.  OVER THE NORTHWEST...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXISTS               
FROM A LOW IN NE MN.  THE FRONT EXTENDS INTO FAR NW IA THEN ALONG               
THE NEB/SDKTA BORDER.  THERE IS WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE              
FRONT BUT SO FAR IT HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO PRODUCE/SUSTAIN                        
THUNDERSTORMS.  ALOFT...THE FLOW IS WEAK AND THERE IS NOT A LOT OF              
SUPPORT.  HOWEVER...RUC ANALYSIS DOES INDICATE A COUPLE OF WEAK VORT            
CENTERS...ONE OVER NW IA...PROBABLY AIDING IN THE SHOWERS UP                    
THERE...AND ONE IN NORTHEAST KS MOVING INTO SW IA.  CAPE VALUES IN              
THIS AREA ARE EVEN HIGHER THAN IN SW IA AND THERE ARE NO                        
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING YET.  HAVING SAID ALL THIS...ANY ONE OF                
THESE FEATURES CAN TRIGGER STORMS TONIGHT AT ANY TIME.  THE LACK OF             
DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR IS THE PERPLEXING PART.                                    
MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE BETTER OVER MN CLOSER TO THE LOW.  I            
WOULD EXPECT DEVELOPMENT TO INITIATE THERE THEN TRAVEL DOWN THE                 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS EVENING.  I BELIEVE THE NAM HAS A GOOD HANDLE             
ON THE SCENARIO DEVELOPING THE PRECIP FURTHER SOUTH...WHERE THE THE             
FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SAG INTO THE HIGH CAPE AREA.  LATER TONIGHT A             
LLJ DEVELOPS AND THIS WILL PROBABLY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN                
MCS MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  WITH               
THE HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY OVER JUST WHERE INITIATION WILL BEGIN             
I HAVE PLACED CHANCE POPS OVER THE CWA FOR TONIGHT.  THE HIGHEST                
POPS STILL REMAIN NORTH BUT WITH FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE                  
SOUTH...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP DOWN THERE WILL ALSO PRODUCE VERY               
HEAVY RAINFALL.                                                                 
MOST ACTIVE PERIOD REMAINS WITHIN THE FIRST 60 HOURS OF THE FORECAST            
PERIOD. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY ONGOING AT THE START OF THE                
PERIOD AT 12Z THURSDAY. THE BIGGER SHOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A               
DEVELOPING MCS OVER WYOMING LATE THIS EVENING THEN ROLL THROUGH                 
SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT BEFORE REACHING NORTHERN IOWA DURING THE DAY             
ON THURSDAY. SOME SFC HEATING IS LIKELY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND THIS            
SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO DEVELOP FOR               
THE STORMS TO FEED ON. SEVERE STORMS ALONG WITH AREAS OF HEAVY                  
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT            
BEFORE THE PRIMARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVES ON FRIDAY. GOOD                     
INSTABILITY LIKELY AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH MIX LAYER CAPES OF 2000 TO              
2500 J/KG HOWEVER THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL PASS TO THE                 
NORTH. STILL ENOUGH SHEAR WILL REMAIN FOR SOME SEVERE MULTICELL                 
STORMS AND ISOLATED SUPER CELLS.                                                
THE WEEKEND WILL BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING                 
SLOWING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGING CYCLONIC                
FLOW TO IOWA. HAVE COOLED HIGH TEMPERATURES AND ADDED LOW POPS TO               
THE NORTHEAST FOR EACH AFTERNOON AS IMPULSES ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER            
LOW. COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL LEAD TO SOME                     
INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS. GRADUALLY WARMER NEXT WEEK WITH              
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVING TUESDAY NIGHT AND                
INTO WEDNESDAY.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...26/06Z                                                              
THUNDERSTORMS JUST ABOVE TO EXIT SRN IA INCLUDING AROUND KOTM.  WITH            
LIGHT WINDS AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM HUMID WED AND                 
RECENT RAINS...EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP.  HOWEVER EXTENSIVE                 
MIDDLE CLOUD COVER FROM DEPARTING STORMS AND THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX               
OVER DAKOTAS SHOULD DEEP RADIATIVE COOLING FROM BEING TOO EXTREME SO            
ONLY MVFR FOG MENTION FOR NOW.  CONFIDENCE IN DAKOTAS COMPLEX MAKING            
IT HERE RATHER LOW FOR THE TIME BEING...SO HAVE IGNORED AT 06Z.                 
HOWEVER FULLY EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS SOMETIME TODAY              
OR THU EVENING.  REALLY DO NOT HAVE A FEEL FOR LOCATION OR TIMING               
YET SO JUST MENTIONED CB RATHER THAN 6+ HOURS OF THUNDERSTORMS IN               
TERMINALS.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RAD/FAB/BSS                                                                     
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
316 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FORECAST CONCERNS...CONVECTIVE CHANCES/TRENDS AND SEVERE POTENTIAL              
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.                                          
ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES IN SENSIBLE WEATHER EXPECTED FOR TODAY...SO                 
WILL FOLLOW A MODIFIED PERSISTENCE APPROACH TO THE FORECAST AND                 
MOST GRID ELEMENTS TODAY. A BIT MORE OF A CAP EARLY THIS MORNING                
BASED ON RUC MODEL...SO HOPEFULLY WILL NOT SEE ANOTHER SUNRISE                  
SURPRISE TOWARD DAWN...ISOLATED AS IT WAS YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE                  
EXPECT A COUPLE LOCALES TO APPROACH/TOUCH THE CENTURY MARK ACROSS               
CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE MAXS IN THE LOW/MID 90S                  
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...IT WILL FEEL CLOSE TO 100 WITH COMBO                 
OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY.                                                           
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS NORTHWEST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING MAY                 
CLIP NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...SO WILL                   
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE IN FOR THOSE AREAS. HOWEVER...MAIN FOCUS FOR               
MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL COME LATER FRIDAY INTO EARLY                     
SATURDAY MORNING...AS A STRONG SUMMER-TIME UPPER TROF AND THE                   
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS                  
TROF WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH A REINFORCING SHOT                 
OF COOLISH/DRIER AIR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE FRONT ON                   
FRIDAY EVENING LOOKS TO ENCOUNTER A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS                
EASTERN KANSAS...AND CONFIDENCE CONTINUES BUILD ON A SEVERE                     
CONVECTIVE EPISODE...SO HAVE UPPED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY                
FOR AREAS EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE FRIDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME                  
QUESTION AS TO THE TIMING/SOUTHWARD MOVE OF THE FRONT...WITH THE                
NAM MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN OTHER MODELS. THIS MAY HAVE MORE OF AN                
IMPACT ON MAXS FOR CENTRAL KANSAS ON FRIDAY...AND FOR NOW WILL                  
STILL KEEP THINGS QUITE TOASTY...HOWEVER AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL                 
LOOK TO BE THE HOTTEST...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WEST AND SOUTHWEST                
OF GREATER WICHITA WHERE PERHAPS A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SOME                
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING EFFECTS WILL ENHANCE MAX POTENTIAL LATE IN                
THE AFTERNOON.                                                                  
OTHERWISE...HAVE TEMPERED MAXS FOR THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY FOR                 
SUNDAY...WITH MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTING RELATIVELY COOLER AIR                  
WILL HOLD SWAY THRU THE WEEKEND NOW.                                            
DARMOFAL                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
06Z TAFS...ICT/SLN/HUT/CNU/RSL...VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED OVER                
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STRENGTHENING AND VEERING LOW-LEVEL JET TONIGHT              
MAY INITIATE A STRAY THUNDERSTORM SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL AND                  
SOUTHEAST KANSAS TONIGHT...BUT PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW AND                    
COVERAGE TOO SPARSE TO MENTION VCTS IN THE TAFS.                                
OTHERWISE...STOUT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL COMMENCE BY MID-MORNING                  
THURSDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH                  
PLAINS...AND A COLD FRONT GETS ITS ACT TOGETHER NORTHWEST OF THE                
AREA.                                                                           
KLEINSASSER                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    95  73  97  71 /  10  10  20  50                                
HUTCHINSON      96  72  98  69 /  10  10  30  50                                
NEWTON          95  73  97  70 /  10  10  30  50                                
ELDORADO        94  73  95  71 /  10  10  20  60                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   94  73  96  72 /  10  10  20  60                                
RUSSELL        100  71  95  66 /  10  20  40  20                                
GREAT BEND      99  71  97  67 /  10  10  40  30                                
SALINA          99  73  97  68 /  10  20  40  40                                
MCPHERSON       97  73  97  69 /  10  10  40  40                                
COFFEYVILLE     92  72  93  72 /  10  10  20  60                                
CHANUTE         92  72  93  72 /  10  20  20  60                                
IOLA            92  72  93  72 /  10  20  20  60                                
PARSONS-KPPF    92  72  93  72 /  10  10  20  60                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME                                             
412 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY.                   
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON                
AND MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN                  
BUILD TOWARD THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.                                         
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
MAIN CHALLENGES ARE POSITIONING OF THE FRONT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR              
SVR WX.                                                                         
DECIDED ON A BLEND OF THE GFS AND SREF FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO                 
TONIGHT. THE RUC13 AND GFS40 WAS USED TO START THINGS OFF THIS                  
MORNING W/1ST BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING E AND EXITING                  
INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FCST TO SLOWLY SAG S                
TODAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRES MOVES IN ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM CNTL               
CANADA.                                                                         
LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR 2 AREAS OF CONVECTION               
W/THE 1ST AREA GETTING STARTED LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY                    
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE N AND W AND THEN A 2ND AREA FIRING UP ACROSS               
CNTL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. SATL IR IMAGERY SHOWING TO POTENTIAL FOR               
SOME INSOLATION THIS MRNG ACROSS THE N AND W IN BTWN S/WVS                      
ALLOWING FOR DESTABILIZATION. CNTL AND DOWNEAST AREAS SHOULD BE                 
ALLOWED TO HEAT UP THIS AFTERNOON. DWPTS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE                
INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S BY THIS AFTERNOON.                                   
GFS SOUNDINGS SHOWING MU CAPES HITTING 1000+ J/KG LATER THIS                    
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE N AND W AND THEN THINGS                    
TRANSLATE INTO CNTL AND DOWNEAST BY MID-AFTERNOON. TTS HIT AROUND               
50 W/KIS CLOSING IN 35 W/LIS DROPPING TO -4 TO -6. PWS AROUND                   
1.5". 0-6KM SHEAR IS ABOUT 25 KTS COUPLED W/INVERTED V IN LLVLS                 
INDICATING DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL. UA SHOWED 30-40 KT JETLET FROM                  
700-500 MBS TO CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS WELL. ONE LACKING               
INGREDIENT IS STEEP LAPSE RATES. LAPSE ARE EXPECTED TO BE MEAGER                
W/VALUES AROUND 6.0 C/KM. SPC HAS BACKED OFF ON THE SLIGHT RISK                 
POTENTIAL FOR OUR CWA AND NOW OUR CWA IS IN A GENERAL RISK. AFTER               
PHONE CHAT W/GYX...DECIDED TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING FOR HAIL AND                 
GUSTY WINDS. INCREASING CONCERNS ARE THERE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR                
HEAVY RAFL W/HIGH PWS AND LOW/MID FLOW PARALLELING THE FRONT.                   
REGENERATION OF CELLS COULD LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME                      
FLOODING ISSUES. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.                                
CONVECTION WILL WIND DOWN THIS EVENING AND HEAVY RAFL AXIS IS                   
EXPECTED TO SHIFT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK AFT 06Z AS SFC LOW PASSES TO               
THE E.                                                                          
USED THE DAYCREW/S TEMPS AS THEY WERE MATCHING WELL W/THE LATEST                
OBS. ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE WIND FIELDS TAKING A BLEND OF                 
THE NAM12 AND GFS40.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                        
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN PORTION OF THE                   
STATE FRIDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH IT IS QUESTIONABLE HOW FAR TO THE                 
SOUTH THE FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THAT POINT ON. FOR SATURDAY LOW                  
PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES.                
WILL GENERATE POP GRIDS WITH A BLEND OF THE SERF...GS40 AND                     
NAM12. SKY GRIDS CREATED WITH A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GS40. FOR                
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL INITIALIZE WITH GM OS. HAVE RAISED               
MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GM OS. WILL MENTION SCATTERED              
THUNDERSTORMS FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS INTO THE                  
EVENING. FOR PF HAVE USED A NAM12/GS40 BLEND.                                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST AT THE BEGINNING             
OF THIS PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST THRU              
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HAVE GENERATED GRIDS FOR THIS PERIOD USING               
GMOS. FOR SKY GRIDS HAVE MANUALLY ADJUSTED SOME PERIODS TO BETTER               
FIT POPS. WILL PUT MENTION OF THUNDER INTO SUNDAY                               
AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                      
NEAR TERM: VFR TO START THINGS OUT TODAY AND THEN WE ARE EXPECTING              
CONDITIONS TO DROP INTO MVFR CATEGORY LATER THIS AFTERNOON W/RAFL               
AND POSSIBLE TSTMS. MVFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO HOLD INTO TONIGHT.                  
LOOKING FURTHER OUT: EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FROM FRIDAY INTO     
MONDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES. AS MENTIONED ABV...USED A GFS40/NAM12                  
BLEND FOR THE WINDS WILL INDICATES SPEEDS OF 10 KT INTO TONIGHT.                
WNAWAVE WAS LOADED FOR THE WAVE HEIGHTS AND THEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD              
BY A FOOT AS IT IS ALREADY 1 FOOT OVER THE LATEST OBS.                          
SHORT TERM: HAVE INITIALIZED WIND GRIDS WITH A 50/50 BLEND OF THE               
NAM12 AND THE GFS40. WIND SPEEDS LOOK REASONABLE AND WILL NOT MAKE              
ANY CHANGES. FOR WINDS AFTER 00Z SUNDAY WILL USE GMOS WINDS. FOR                
WAVES: HAVE INITIALIZED INTO SATURDAY WITH NAM VERSION OF SWAN.                 
FOR REMAINDER OF PERIOD WILL INITIALIZE WITH WNA. IN GENERAL SEEMS              
TO BE HIGH BIAS FOR BEGINNING OF PERIOD SO WILL LOWER BY 1 FOOT.                
FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY WNA RUNNING MUCH TOO HIGH AND HAVE LOWERED              
WAVE HEIGHTS SEVERAL FEET. &&                                                   
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ME...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NEAR TERM...HEWITT                                                              
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE                                                            
LONG TERM...MIGNONE                                                             
AVIATION...HEWITT                                                               
MARINE...HEWITT/MIGNONE                                                         
</pre> me                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
530 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN CONCERNS FOCUS ON TIMING OF CONVECTION ON FRIDAY AND POSSIBLE              
SVR STORMS...THEN LINGERING SHRA/TSRA INTO THE WEEKEND.                         
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW ZONAL FLOW ACROSS            
THE NRN CONUS. SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR LAST NIGHT`S CONVECTION HAS            
MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. IR SATELLITE NOW SHOWS CLEARING SKIES FROM              
THE WEST AS MID LVL RDGG AND SUBSIDENCE NOSE INTO THE AREA.                     
HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH (UPR 50S TO LOW 60S) AND FOG             
LINGERS OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING AND OVER THE              
SHORELINE AREAS.                                                                
TODAY...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE TO                 
LIFT AFTER SUNRISE WITH SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING UNDER MID-LVL RIDGING            
AND SUBSIDENCE. 800 MB TEMPS NEAR 12C MIXING TO THE SFC SHOULD YIELD            
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S OVER THE WRN INTERIOR. LAKE BREEZES                      
DEVELOPING WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER (LOWER 70S) NEAR THE GREAT LAKES              
AND OVER THE ERN FCST AREA.                                                     
TONIGHT...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF              
THE SFC HIGH ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN WAA MID-HIGH               
LVL CLOUDS FROM THE SW LATE AHEAD OF NEXT INCOMING SHORTWAVE. EXPECT            
LOWS TO GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS               
EAST WHERE SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR MOST OF THE NIGHT.                             
FRIDAY...GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE NAM/UKMET/ECMWF AND SREF             
MODELS AS THE GFS AND EVEN THE GLOBAL GEM LOOK TO BE AFFECTED BY                
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. ALL THESE MODELS BRING THE LEAD SHORTWAVE INTO             
THE AREA ON FRI AHEAD OF AN UPR TROF/CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE             
NRN PLAINS. 305K ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOC WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL               
SUPPORT THE INITIAL BATCH OF CONVECTION SPREADING SW TO NE ACROSS               
THE FCST AREA...MAINLY LATE FRI. BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS                
WEST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS SINCE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER                    
AGREEMENT ON TIMING/COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA. STRONG MOISTURE INFLOW               
WITH PWAT INCREASING TO AOA 1.5 INCHES COULD SUPPORT HEAVY DOWNPOURS            
WITH THE SHOWERS. MUCAPE VALUES INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE AND               
0-6KM BULK SHEAR INTO THE 30-40 KT RANGE WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT              
SOME STRONGER STORMS. HOWEVER...HIGH FREEZING LEVELS (13-14 KFT)                
SHOULD  LIMIT LARGE HAIL THREAT. SPC STILL HAS THE ENTIRE U.P IN A              
SLIGHT RISK OF SVR FOR THE DAY2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.                             
FRI NIGHT...AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW SINKS SLOWLY ESE TOWARD THE              
UPPER GREAT LAKES...A DRY SLOT WILL SPREAD THROUGH THE AREA REDUCING            
PCPN CHANCES. FOLLOWED THE PREFERRED SLOWER TIMING OF THE ECMWF AND             
SREF WITH THIS FEATURE SO KEPT IN SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WITH THE HIGHEST            
POPS OVER THE EASTERN FCST AREA.                                                
SAT INTO SUN...FOLLOWED THE NCEP PREFERRED GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLN               
WITH MVMT OF THE UPR LOW WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE OPERATIONAL 00Z                
ECMWF RUN. FCST 500 MB TEMPS OF -17C/-18C WITH STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL              
LAPSE RATES AND FORCING FROM SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL            
SUPPORT SCT SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY SUN...WITH NRLY LOW                
LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING...MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY              
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE WILL BE CONTINUED CHCS FOR LIGHT RAIN OR             
SHOWERS BUT TSTM SHOULD CHANCES SHOULD BE DWINDLING.                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
LATE AFTN VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED FAIRLY EXTENSIVE FOG OVER             
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH UPSLOPING WNW WINDS PERSISTING THRU THE                 
NIGHT AT KCMX...VFR WITH OCCASIONAL LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/STRATUS              
APPEAR LIKELY THERE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR WITHIN A FEW              
HRS AFTER SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF             
THE FCST PERIOD. AT KSAW...SOME RADIATION FOG IS POSSIBLE A COUPLE              
OF HRS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE...BUT DOWNSLOPING WRLY FLOW SHOULD                
KEEP VIS FROM DROPPING BLO MVFR. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL AT            
KSAW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD.                                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING             
WINDS WILL LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL                 
MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND INTO LAKE SUPERIOR ON                 
FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL               
TIGHTEN FOLLOWING THE LOW CAUSING WIND TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS            
FOR A PERIOD OVER CENTRAL AND EAST EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. BY                    
SUNDAY...THE LOW FILLING SLIGHTLY AND SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER LOWER            
MICHIGAN BY SUNDAY MORNING WILL CAUSE THE WINDS TO LESS AN 20 KNOTS             
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.                                                
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...VOSS                                                               
AVIATION...ROLFSON/DLG                                                          
MARINE...KF                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
140 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE U.P. ARE SLIDING ESE EARLY THIS            
MORNING BUT SHOULD CLEAR KAPN/KPLN GIVEN STRONG CAPPING IN PLACE                
SOUTH OF THE STRAITS. BIGGEST FOCUS IS ON VISBYS/CIGS WITH                      
PSEUDO-WARM FRONT SLIPPING NORTH THRU 12Z IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING             
SFC COOL FRONT. ALREADY SEEING EXPANDING STRATUS DECK ALONG THIS                
BOUNDARY...WITH KTVC/KAPN STANDING THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING AT LEAST             
A TEMPORARY IFR CEILING/VISBY CREEP IN THRU SUNRISE. WILL ALSO BE               
WATCHING EXPANSIVE LAKE STRATUS DECK RUNNING THE LONG AXIS OF LAKE              
MICHIGAN...WHICH MAY BRIEFLY BE PUSHED INLAND TOWARD KTVC/KPLN AS               
INCOMING COOL FRONT SHIFTS WINDS NORTHWESTERLY TOWARD SUNRISE.                  
OTHERWISE...JUST SOME SCATTERED (PERHAPS BROKEN FOR A TIME) CU TO               
FIRE THRU THE AFTN AS THERMAL TROUGH SLIPS OVERHEAD (SIMILAR TO                 
UPSTREAM CONDITIONS YESTERDAY) BEFORE LOW LEVEL DRYING WINS OUT BY              
LATE AFTERNOON. COULD ALSO SEE BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS FOR A TIME 15-21Z            
GIVEN MODESTLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...THOUGH OVERALL LACK OF LOW                
LEVEL FLOW MAY ALSO ALLOW LAKE BREEZES TO PENETRATE TOWARD KAPN/KTVC            
BY MID AFTN.                                                                    
MPC/LAWRENCE                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2008/                             
UPDATE...LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WEAK                
SURFACE LOW TRANSVERSING OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH WARM FRONT             
EXTENDING JUST NORTH OF THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE.  SHOWERS AND               
THUNDERSTORMS...ALL SUB-SEVERE...CONTINUE TO DEVELOP JUST SOUTH OF              
THE SURFACE LOW WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WITH SOME HELP FROM ADDED                
CONVERGENCE AS A RESULT OF LAKE BREEZES.  THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS              
HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING AS THEY HEAD TOWARDS EASTERN ALGER COUNTY                 
WHERE LOWER THETAE AIR RESIDES.  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ALSO HAVE             
BEEN REDEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE PARENT SHORTWAVE OVER THE ARROWHEAD              
OF MINNESOTA.  FARTHER SOUTH...WEAK COOL FRONT/SURFACE                          
TROUGH...WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN...HAS BEEN DORMANT              
IN REGARDS TO IGNITING CONVECTION DUE TO CAPPING ISSUES JUDGING BY              
00Z GRB SOUNDING AS WARMING AIR SURGES NE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.                  
CLOSER TO HOME...A ROGUE SHOWER DEVELOPED OVER NE LOWER THIS EVENING            
BUT QUICKLY DISSIPATED LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES              
OVER MOST LOCALES.                                                              
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...THE WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS              
TREK EAST AS HIGHER LOW LEVEL THETAE AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION             
AHEAD OF ITS SURFACE TROUGH. STRONGEST (ALBEIT PRETTY MODEST)                   
700-500MB QG FORCING WILL RESIDE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER CLOSEST TO THE            
SHORTWAVE WITH A LITTLE 850-700MB -DIVQ CLIPPING NORTHERN LOWER                 
TOWARDS THE TIP OF THE MITT.  WITHIN THE THETAE AXIS...18Z NAM SHOWS            
300-600 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE DEVELOPING BETWEEN 03-06Z...BUT                   
CURRENT CONVECTION ACROSS THE U.P. APPEARS SURFACE BASED AND SHOULD             
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AS DIURNAL INSTABILITY WANES.  THE NAM ALSO TRIES             
TO DEVELOP A MODEST 25-30KT LLJ THAT POKES INTO EASTERN UPPER AFTER             
03Z THAT CAN BOOST CONVERGENCE IN ADDITION TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW                 
AROUND THE SURFACE LOW.  THIS SEEMS TO POINT TOWARDS THE CONVECTION             
SURVIVING THE MARCH AS IT REACHES WHITEFISH POINT TO THE SOO LATER              
TONIGHT AND WILL BUMP UP POPS TO LIKELY.  OVER NORTHERN                         
LOWER...ABSENCE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON MAKES             
ME THINK CAPPING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP            
DESPITE AMPLE INSTABILITY ABOVE THE CAP.  LACK OF UPPER LEVEL                   
SUPPORT...AND WEAKENING SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH DOES               
NOT HELP EITHER.  HOWEVER...STILL A LITTLE WARY OF REMOVING PRECIP              
ALTOGETHER GIVEN ELEVATED INCOMING THETAE BOOST.  SO WILL HEDGE AND             
GO ISOLATED THUNDER FOR NORTHERN LOWER OVERNIGHT.                               
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2008/                         
MID AFTERNOON OBSERVATIONAL AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ANALYSIS SHOWS               
PAIR OF EARLIER CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT LOBES...ONE OVER SOUTHERN             
LAKE MICHIGAN WITH THE OTHER OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...MAKING              
THEIR WAY EAST IN BROAD ZONAL WEST FLOW THAT LIES ACROSS THE                    
NORTHERN CONUS AND SOUTHERN CANADA. AS FEARED...DESPITE SOMEWHAT                
INCREASING SUPPORT...AFTERNOON MIXING AND PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL CAP             
PREVENTING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN (BESIDES SOME             
REMNANT SPRINKLES MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS GLADWIN AND ARENAC                    
COUNTIES FROM EARLIER DOWNSTATE CONVECTION). OTHERWISE... PLENTY OF             
SUNSHINE AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING SURFACE              
RIDGE AXIS HAS LEAD TO A RATHER WARM SUMMER DAY...WITH AFTERNOON                
READINGS WELL INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S. FARTHER                               
UPSTREAM...POTENTIAL NEXT WEATHER MAKER OF INTEREST IS NORTHERN                 
MINNESOTA LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT LOW PRESSURE/COLD               
FRONT MAKING STEADY EAST PROGRESS. FORECAST CONCERNS TONIGHT AND                
THURSDAY CENTER ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AS THIS COLD FRONT PIVOTS               
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.                                                      
TONIGHT...THINKING THAT ANY LATE AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS AND                 
STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY BE ON THE WANE...WITH ALL            
ATTENTION THEN TURNING TO UPSTREAM APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT               
CONVECTION TO QUICKLY FIRE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN UPPER                  
MICHIGAN AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AS CONVERGENCE AXIS WORKS ON               
1500+ J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL WORK EAST             
THIS EVENING FOLLOWING MOISTURE AXIS...PUSHING INTO EASTERN UPPER               
MICHIGAN LATER THIS EVENING. AFTER THAT...SEVERAL QUESTIONS ARISE AS            
OVERALL CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY WEAKENS AHEAD OF FRONTAL SYSTEM.            
THUS...FEEL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL                   
FOLLOW SUITE AS THEY DROP SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE...WILL TAPER POPS                
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT...NOT BRINGING IN CHANCE WORDING TO               
OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES UNTIL AFTER 09Z. AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER...REGION             
REMAINS OUT OF LATEST SPC SLIGHT RISK WORDING...WHICH SEEMS                     
SUPPORTED BY BETTER BULK SHEAR REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA AND                  
RELATIVELY HIGH FREEZING LEVELS (>13.0 KFT). STILL...THINKING THE               
STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SOME SMALL HAILS AND BRIEF GUSTY            
WINDS...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN UPPER                      
MICHIGAN.                                                                       
THURSDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEAST DURING THE MORNING            
AS PARENT LOW PUSHES INTO QUEBEC. WHILE MODELS REMAIN DRY DURING THE            
MORNING...HATE TO RULE OUT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM                 
BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE. EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS COULD GET QUITE                   
INTERESTING OVER FAR SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE AREA IF COLD FRONT               
STALLS FROM INTENSE MORNING WARMING. MODIFYING A NAM-WRF SOUNDING               
(IGNORING OVERZEALOUS LOW 70 DEWPOINTS) YIELDS 1500+ J/KG MEAN LAYER            
CAPE. WILL KEEP LOW POP MENTION FOR THIS POSSIBILITY THROUGH 21Z                
BEFORE FRONT SAGS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION. OTHER                
STORY WILL BE RATHER WARM TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS PUSHING THE              
UPPER 80S SOUTHEAST OF WEST BRANCH. FARTHER NORTH...MID 70S TO LOWER            
80S ARE EXPECTED...WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER ALONG               
THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.                                                    
MSB                                                                             
THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT...STILL EXPECT A DRY THURSDAY NIGHT            
WITH WEAK RIDGING...SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR OVERHEAD. CONVECTIVE                 
ACTIVITY PICKS UP AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY                   
INCREASE ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT.            
THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE               
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION (MORE ON THIS SYSTEM              
BELOW). BEST INSTABILITY AND 850 THETA-E ADVECTION WILL OCCUR WELL              
SW OF OUR CWA OVER KANSAS...MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS (AN AREA THAT                 
CERTAINLY DOES NOT NEED MORE RAIN). EXPECT BEST CHANCE OF SVR TSRA              
WILL BE IN THIS AREA WHERE STRONGER WIND FIELDS AND BETTER WIND                 
SHEAR EXIST. STILL...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SVR STORM FRIDAY                  
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH MODEST WIND SHEAR...CAPES APPROACHING 1000             
J/KG AND THE 850 MB THETA E RIDGE AXIS JUST UPSTREAM. WILL MAINTAIN             
CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA FOR FRIDAY AND LIKELY POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW            
TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S BOTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND            
FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S                 
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.                                                               
SATURDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW WILL DIVE SE OUT OF S            
CENTRAL CANADA INTO NRN MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY. SURFACE REFLECTION                
BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE DEEP CLOSED 500 MB LOW...                   
RESULTING IN A VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION AWAY FROM THE STATE               
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...SYSTEM IS UNSEASONABLY             
STRONG AND VERY DYNAMIC. IN ADDITION...LATEST MODELS STILL SUGGEST              
MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LOW AND COLD FRONT               
WILL IMPACT OUR AREA DURING PEAK HEATING SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.            
HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY FOR SATURDAY AS MICHIGAN FINDS ITSELF               
WITHIN THE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AXES AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. HAVE              
ALSO INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE              
STACKED LOW MOVES THRU NRN MICHIGAN AND THEN STALLS OVER LAKE HURON.            
CHANCE POPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THRU MONDAY AS AMPLE LOW              
LEVEL MOISTURE...GOOD CYCLONIC FLOW AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY                  
REMAIN OVER THE AREA AS THE 500 MB COLD POOL ARRIVES. MONDAY NIGHT              
THRU WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE/RIDGING/DRIER AIR               
SETTLE INTO THE REGION. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS            
IN THE 50S THRU THE PERIOD.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
LH...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
121 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
RAISED OVERNIGHT MINS A FEW DEGREES AS LL HUMIDITY IS SLOW TO                   
EXIT CWA. CLEARING HAS ALLOWED SFC T/TD TO QUICKLY APPROACH                     
SATURATION ACROSS PARTS OF ARROWHEAD/RANGE/WEST TO CASS LAKE. HAVE              
INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT HOWEVER RUC13 925H WINDS STILL                
NW AT 15-20KTS. NOT SURE IF THIS WILL IMPART ENOUGH TURBULENT                   
KINETIC ENERGY TO RESTRICT ANY SIGNIFICANT AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG.               
AN ARE OF MID CLOUDS WILL SCOOT RAPIDLY ACROSS NRN CWA                          
OVERNIGHT...ALSO TEMPERING RADIATIONAL COOLING SLIGHTLY.                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 925 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008/                         
UPDATE...THUNDERSTORMS THAT FIRED ALONG WARM FRONT DURING THE                   
MID-AFTERNOON NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER HAS DECREASED OR HAS                
MOVED OUT INTO LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE SOLAR HEATING DECREASING                 
AND THE CAP OVER AREA...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE DEVELOPMENT                      
OVERNIGHT AS RIDGE BUILDS INTO AREA. THIS WILL GIVE FORECAST AREA               
A BREAK DURING THE DAY THURSDAY BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE APPROACHS              
THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING GIVING THE AREA ANOTHER SHOT FOR SEVERE               
WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. REST OF FCST UNCHANGED.                      
STEWART                                                                         
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTING LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR KINL...WITH           
WEAK COLD FRONT DRAPED SOUTH THROUGH KHIB TO KROS. EARLIER                      
OVERRUNNING CONVECTION FROM THIS MORNING HAS MOVED EAST OF THE                  
ARROWHEAD REGION. SEVERE WX PARAMETERS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON              
FOCUSED ON THE ARROWHEAD REGION...AS WELL AS NW WI...THOUGH                     
FORCING FOR CONVECTION QUESTIONABLE OVER NW WI. MSAS ANALYSIS                   
DEPICTING TONGUE OF HIGHEST POTENTIAL TEMPS AND TD`S EXTENDING                  
NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL ST LOUIS COUNTY. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS FROM                
KELO DEPICTING LI VALUES -3 TO -4 THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.                  
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KTS WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE                   
THUNDERSTORMS.                                                                  
LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT...                    
ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN. A WARM AND PLEASANT DAY ON              
TAP FOR THURSDAY BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM AFFECTS THE NORTHLAND. STRONG               
WAVE PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY.                       
RETURN FLOW FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...AND APPROACHING                 
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRIGGER TS OVER THE DAKOTAS THURSDAY NIGHT. SRLY              
LLJ INCREASES TO 50KTS FRI MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL MN...WITH                     
ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS QUICKLY PROPAGATING THROUGH CWA.              
ATTM... BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE IS ACROSS SW CWA...WHERE MAX                     
INSTABILITY AND LIFT IS FOCUSED. SEE DAY 2 OUTLOOK ISSUED BY SPC                
FOR DETAILS. INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS ON FRIDAY...AS MODELS ARE IN                
DECENT AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES. CONFIDENCE NOT              
AS GREAT FRI EVENING...AS GFS SHOWING STRONGER DOUBLE BARREL LOW                
DEVELOPING AND DRY SLOT PUNCHING INTO SRN ZONES...WITH ECMWF                    
SLIGHTLY WEAKER WITH SFC FEATURE.                                               
WEEKEND SHAPING UP TO BE COOL AND WET AS UPPER LOW BECOMES QUASI                
STATIONARY OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. ECMWF SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH               
MOVING THE SYSTEM OUT BY SUNDAY...WITH GFS HANGING ON THROUGH                   
EARLY MONDAY. EITHER WAY...SHOULD SEE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THIS                   
WEEKEND.                                                                        
AVIATION...                                                                     
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS/CIGS ARE            
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A COLD FRONT TRACKING                  
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. THE STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH             
THE FRONT THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA AFTER                
MIDNIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH            
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE             
REGION BY THURSDAY RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR              
OUT TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT...ALLOWING FOR THE FORMATION            
OF FOG WITH IFR/MVFR VSBYS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.             
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  80  53  69  54 /  10  20  60  30                                           
INL  82  56  74  54 /  10  20  60  40                                           
BRD  83  60  75  56 /  10  50  50  30                                           
HYR  83  55  74  55 /  10  40  60  30                                           
ASX  79  56  73  54 /  10  10  60  40                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
CANNON                                                                          
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                            
430 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
/404 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2008/                                                    
SHORT DISCUSSION THIS MORNING DUE TO ACTIVE WEATHER. BROKEN LINE                
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH THROUGH SUNRISE. RUC IS                    
INDICATING THAT MOST OF THE INSTABILITY IS BACK TOWARD SOUTHWEST                
MISSOURI...SO THINK THE PRIMARY THRUST OF THE STORMS WILL BE IN                 
THAT DIRECTION. KEPT LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS GOING THRU                         
12Z...FADING TO MID-HIGH LIKELY AFTER 12Z. MODELS DEVELOP PLENTY                
OF CAPE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY...AND WITH                        
BOUNDARIES LINGERING FROM THIS MORNING`S STORMS FELT CHANCE POPS                
WERE PRUDENT FOR THE AFTERNOON.                                                 
TONIGHT...MODEL QPF AND POPS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING POORLY AT BEST                
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. HAVE DECIDED TO MORE OR LESS                    
IGNORE THE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT POPS GUIDANCE IS GIVING US IN                   
NORTHERN AREAS AND HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE INSTEAD. THE THIRD                
IN THIS SERIES OF SMALL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS INTO               
THE MIDWEST TONIGHT. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE HINTING THAT THE FLOW               
WILL BECOME A BIT MORE ZONAL TONIGHT WHICH WOULD KEEP ALL OF THE                
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS VORT NORTH OF THE CWFA...HOWEVER I                  
HAVE LITTLE OR NO CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION BASED ON THE PAST                 
COUPLE OF NIGHT`S PERFORMANCE. AM THINKING THAT THIS WILL BE TOO                
FAR NORTH AND THAT WE COULD GET THE SOUTHERN END OF AN MCS AS IT                
MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. AS PREVIOUSLY                
STATED...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN                 
TIER OF COUNTIES IN THE CWFA. DID NOT GO TOO HIGH ON QPF AT THIS                
TIME AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BUT DID GO HIGHER THAN HPC GUIDANCE                 
SUGGESTED.                                                                      
FRIDAY NIGHT STILL LOOKS VERY WET AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO                  
MISSOURI ACCORDING TO ALL GUIDANCE. ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY MOIST               
AND UNSTABLE WITH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HAVE          
INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY TO 60-70% ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE                    
AREA...AND BUMPED UP QPF SLIGHTLY AS WELL. HAVE MADE LITTLE OR NO               
CHANGE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST BEYOND SATURDAY FOR THIS PACKAGE.       
CARNEY                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
/1033 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008/                                                   
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...WRMFNT HAS PUSHED N OF THE TAF SITES SO S-SWLY               
SFC WNDS WL CONT THIS TAF FSCT PD. MCS HAS DVLPD OVER ERN IA AND                
THIS SHOULD MOVE E-SEWD GRAZING NERN MO AND W CNTRL IL LT TGT. MAY              
INCLUDE VCTS IN UIN AFTER 07Z THU AS TSRA MAY GET CLOSE TO THE                  
AIRPORT AS THEY CONT TO MOVE AND DVLP E-SEWD WITH TIME. WILL                    
PROBABLY GO SKC IN COU..STL AND SUS LT TGT AS EVEN HI LVL                       
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS SHOULD REMAIN N OF THESE SITES. FEW-               
SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD DVLP BY LT THU MRNG. MAY BE                   
ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG TSRA OUTFLOW BNDRY FROM LT NGT AND EARLY              
MRNG CONVECTION BUT WILL LEAVE TAFS DRY FOR NOW ON THU AS                       
THE PROBABILITY OF TSRA AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES LOOKS LOW.                      
GKS                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR LINCOLN.                        
IL...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WFO LSX                                                                         
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE                                            
1252 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2008                                                     
.AVIATION...06Z KGRI TAF. VFR CONDITIONS FOR THIS FORECAST.                     
WIND SHOULD REALLY START MIXING AND GUSTING FROM THE SOUTH BY                   
THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA AT THE END OF THE                
PERIOD...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 942 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...DUE TO THE ONGOING CONVECTION IN NORTHWESTERN                      
KANSAS...THIS LOOKS LIKE IT IS HOLDING TOGETHER AND COULD AFFECT                
PARTS OF OUR KANSAS COUNTIES AT LEAST IN THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS THAT         
DID NOT MENTION THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE                     
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP KEEP THESE STORMS GOING                    
OVERNIGHT AS WELL. AS FAR AS MODELS ARE CONCERNED...QPF FIELDS ARE              
GENERALLY WORTHLESS AND HAVE BEEN IGNORED.                                      
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008/                          
SHORT TERM...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.                                
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW REGIME ACROSS            
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH SEVERAL SMALL BUT POTENT WAVES              
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS UPPER FLOW PATTERN.  ONE OF THESE WAVES IS                 
CURRENTLY SLIDING OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS WHILE A SECOND WAVE IS SEEN            
PUSHING INTO THE ROCKIES.  RECENT OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS              
TWO BOUNDARIES OF INTEREST ACROSS THE AREA WITH A DIFFERENTIAL                  
HEATING BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM NEAR MCCOOK TO AROUND GRAND ISLAND             
WHILE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS SEEN STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN IOWA INTO            
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.  LOOKING AT RUC ANALYSIS...ML CAPES OF                  
3000 TO AS HIGH AS 4500 J/KG ARE SEEN FROM NORTHERN KANSAS INTO                 
CENTRAL NEBRASKA ALTHOUGH MOST OF THIS AREA CONTINUES TO HAVE MODEST            
TO STRONG INHIBITION. HOWEVER...WEAKER INHIBITION IS SHOWN ACROSS               
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND AGAIN ACROSS NORTHWESTERN KANSAS.  TAKING            
A LOOK AT VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY IN THESE WEAKER INHIBITION AREAS...A              
SMALL CLUSTER OF CU IS VISIBLE NEAR KGLD BUT LITTLE IS SHOWN ACROSS             
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.                                                         
MAIN QUESTION AS THE AREA HEADS INTO THIS EVENING TO OVERNIGHT IS               
WHERE DEEP CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP.  INITIAL PROBLEM WITH DEVELOPING             
DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING            
IS THAT FORCING FROM THE FIRST WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION NOW...IS          
SHOWN TO SLIDE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING.  GIVEN               
THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE PRODUCING INCREASING MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ALONG         
WITH A LACK OF ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE REGION THIS                  
AFTERNOON...CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP                 
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.  WILL OPT TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER MOST              
OF THE CWA BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE REMOVED BY THE EVENING SHIFT IF              
NOTHING DEVELOPS.  IF SOMETHING DOES DEVELOP...SEVERE THREAT LOOKS              
MARGINAL AS EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK AT 15 TO 25             
KNOTS AT BEST.  WILL KEEP MENTION OF SEVERE BUT WILL DECREASE MAX               
HAIL SIZE DOWN TO PENNY TO QUARTER SIZE.  HOWEVER...AS THE EVENING              
PROGRESSES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS A 30 TO 40 KT LLJ IS SHOWN TO               
NOSE INTO THE AREA WITH WHATEVER CONVECTION REMAINS ACROSS THE HIGH             
PLAINS SLIDING EAST INTO THE CWA.  COVERAGE OF STORMS LOOKS                     
SMALL...BUT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER MOST OF THE CWA THROUGH              
THE NIGHT.                                                                      
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT IS THEN SHAPING UP TO BE AN              
ACTIVE TIME FRAME ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS             
SHOWN BY THE MODELS TO SPIN UP OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A               
WARM FRONT SEEN EXTENDING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA WHILE A                 
DRYLINE STRETCHES SOUTH ACROSS FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST             
AREA GENERALLY NEAR HIGHWAY 283.  DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE               
AVAILABLE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WARM                   
FRONT.  THIS IS SHOWN TO PRODUCE ML CAPES OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG NEAR             
THE DRYLINE AND 3000 TO 3500 J/KG NEAR THE WARM FRONT.  A HEALTHY               
SHORT WAVE IS SHOWN TO RIDE OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS                  
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THIS TO TRIGGER ISOLATED CONVECTIVE             
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE AND MORE SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT JUST               
NORTH OF THE CWA NEAR THE WARM FRONT.  SEVERE CONVECTION                        
WISE...EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE RATHER WEAK ALONG DRYLINE             
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH VALUES OF 10 TO 25 KNTS AT BEST.  THIS            
SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION ON THE WEAKER SIDE OVER THIS PORTION OF                  
FORECAST AREA.  HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE WINDS BACKING AROUND TO A                
MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT...EFFECTIVE DEEP               
LAYER SHEAR OF 25 TO NEAR 40 KNTS SHOULD SUPPORT GOOD CELL                      
ORGANIZATION AND POSSIBLE ROTATION.  TORNADO THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL               
BUT LARGE HAIL THREAT LOOKS POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 92.                
TEMPERATURE WISE...A VERY WARM AFTERNOON LOOKS ON TAP WITH HIGHS                
RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 90S NEAR ORD TO OSCEOLA...TO THE MID              
90S TO AROUND 100 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.                                  
LONG TERM...12Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BE                  
ON TOP OF THE CWFA FRIDAY MORNING...AS MAY LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND                 
DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM ANY THURSDAY NIGHT MCS ACTIVITY. THE MODELS                  
ARE ALL VERY SIMILAR IN TIMING THE FRONT THROUGH ALL BUT THE FAR                
SOUTHEAST CFWA AS EARLY AS MIDDAY...AND THAT MAY BE TOO SLOW IF                 
CONVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT PUSHES HAS ANY SAY. POINT IS...WITH                   
CLOUDS LINGERING...AND FRONT ON THE MOVE...THE BEST CHANCE FOR                  
ANY PRECIPITATION FRIDAY WILL BE EAST/SOUTHEAST CWFA. KEPT A                    
SMALL RISK FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...IN CASE POST FRONTAL ELEVATED                     
PRECIPITATION CAN FORM...WHICH IT OFTEN DOES FOR A TIME IN                      
THESE SITUATIONS.                                                               
THE WEEKEND LOOKS ADMIRABLE WEATHER WISE. ANOMALOUSLY DRY AIR IS                
FORECAST TO COME INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEHIND COLD FRONT                      
FRIDAY...DRIVEN BY GREAT LAKES REGION LOW PRESSURE. PWAT VALUES                 
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER HALF OF CLIMATOLOGY VALUES.                     
THOUGH  DEWPOINTS MAY BE HELD UP SLIGHTLY WITH EVAPOTRANSPIRATION               
AND RECENT RAINFALL ISSUES...IT SHOULD STILL FEEL MUCH MORE PLEASANT            
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS.                                       
NEXT SHOT FOR A STORM OR TWO COULD COME MONDAY EVENING IN THE                   
WESTERN ZONES...AS A STORM MAY FLOUNDER IN FROM THE HIGH PLAINS.                
LITTLE BETTER RISK OF STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...AS THE                
RIPPLE EFFECT RETURNS WITH A WEAK WAVE CUTTING THROUGH THE RIDGE.               
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH BEGINNING                 
SATURDAY.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                       
409 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA EARLY TODAY. A SLOW                 
MOVING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN THE               
WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BE OVER              
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
DYING MCS MOVING INTO CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS AM. HAVE RAISED POPS                
SIGNIFICANTLY OVR MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING BASED ON                
RADAR TRENDS. LATEST RUC13 AND SREF DATA SUGGEST THIS WEAKENING                 
AREA OF SHWRS...AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...WILL PUSH EAST                
OF THE REGION BY ARND 15Z WITH PASSAGE OF LL JET.                               
IN WAKE OF MCS...WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE                  
REGION LATER TODAY...AS SFC WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH OF PA. EARLY                
CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO BRIGHTENING SKIES BY MIDDAY...RESULTING               
IN SREF CAPES NR 2000 J/KG BY AFTN. ALTHOUGH NEARLY ALL OF CENTRAL              
PA IS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR WX THIS AFTN...LATEST ENS DATA                
SUGGESTS NORTHERN PA IS UNDER THE GREATEST RISK...AS CORE OF                    
STRONGEST MID LVL WINDS FCST TO PASS OVR UPSTATE NY. FURTHER                    
SOUTH...SREF 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES BLW 20KTS SUGGEST A MUCH LOWER CHC              
FOR ORGANIZED SVR WX ACROSS SOUTHERN PA.                                        
HIGHEST /CHC/ POPS THIS AFTN WILL BE PLACED OVR THE ALLEGHENY                   
HIGHLANDS...WHERE ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE/TOPOGRAPHIC FORCING MOST                 
LIKELY TO INITIATE CONVECTION. 850 TEMPS ARND 18C SUGGEST HIGHS                 
ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY COULD HIT 90F TDY.                                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...                          
SCT EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD DWINDLE AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. WEAK           
SHORTWAVE PASSING THRU SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC WILL PUSH A DYING                
COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN PA. ACROSS SOUTHERN PA...DIURNAL HEATING OF            
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS SHOULD YIELD SCT AFTN PULSE TYPE CONVECTION              
ON FRIDAY. SREF 850 TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS ARND 90F IN THE VALLEYS                 
SOUTH OF I-80.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                  
BETTER PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS...SOME POSSIBLY                   
SVR...STATEWIDE ON SATURDAY AS A SHARP SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT                   
APPROACHES THE REGION AHEAD OF DIGGING UPPER LVL TROF OVR THE                   
WESTERN GRT LKS. FRONT GRADUALLY CROSSES AREA SAT NITE/SUNDAY...AS              
UPPER-LVL TROF CLOSES OFF OVER NORTHERN GRT LKS. WILL CARRY SHWRS               
AND T-STORMS INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PA.                        
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS PARK UPPER-LVL TROF OVER THE NORTHEASTERN                   
UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN RELATIVELY COOL                    
CONDS. GIVEN COLD TEMPS ALOFT...CAN/T RULE OUT SCT DIURNAL                      
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. UPPER TROF                   
LIKELY TO LIFT OUT BY MIDWEEK...RESULTING IN FAIR AND WARMER                    
CONDS.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                      
LARGE COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS                
CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT. SYSTEM IS GENERALLY WEAKENING FROM WHAT IT                
WAS OVER OHIO LAST EVENING. SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO SWRN TERMINALS               
KJST/KBFD AND CENTRAL KUNV BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z AND CONTINUE THRU SUNRISE.       
EXPECT MDT TO OCNL HVY RAIN WITH A FEW LTG STRIKES. MAIN AVIATION               
IMPACT WILL BE MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO THE RAIN. A BRIEF WIND                
GUST TO 30KTS ALSO POSSIBLE...ESP NEAR THE ONSET OF PCPN. PCPN                  
SHOULD REACH KIPT AND KMDT AFTER 10Z...BUT AS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO               
WEAKEN...EXPECT CIG/VSBY DETERIORATION TO BE LESS AT THESE LOCS.                
LEFTOVER SHRA/TSRA SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE INTO MID MORNING AS              
THE SYSTEM SLIDES INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE. XPECT SOME                
MVFR CIGS AND OCNL MVFR VIS THRU LATE MORNING. VFR FLYING TO                    
RETURN BY THE AFTN WITH SCT- BKN CU. LATE DAY CLEARING MAY LEAD TO              
SOME ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ESP ACROSS THE NRN TIER CLOSE TO A DIFFUSE                 
FNTL BNDRY.                                                                     
WEST TO EAST ZONAL PATTERN WILL KEEP ACTIVE WX THRU FIRST HALF OF               
WEEKEND. PERIODS OF DRY/WET WX FRI-SUN AS MODELS HINT AT PRODUCING              
A QUASI-STATIONARY BNDRY FROM SOUTHERN MO ARCHING NE TOWARDS                    
DELMARVA. WHICH WOULD SUPPORT THINKING WITH CHC/S OF SHRA/TSRA                  
EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MID LVL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED                 
COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO GRT LKS SUN EVE.                                         
&&                                                                              
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD                                                           
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD                                                          
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD                                                         
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/RXR                                                      
AVIATION...GARTNER/STEINBUGL                                                    
</pre> pa                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO                                      
941 AM MDT THU JUN 26 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MORNING SOUNDING DATA INDICATE MID LEVEL                  
MOISTURE CREEPING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. RUC ANALYSIS ALSO             
DEPICTS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND                  
CENTRAL UTAH THIS MORNING WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THAT                     
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY FORMED OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST               
UTAH. THIS WAVE SHOULD MIX OUT THE WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NEAR               
500MB ON THE GJT SOUNDING AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING EXPECT ISOLATED              
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN AS WELL AS            
THE SOUTH. WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO POP AND SKY GRIDS IN MORNING                
UPDATE...OTHERWISE THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS FINE.                               
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...               
TWO MINOR FEATURES TO WATCH TODAY...ONE FROM THE GREAT BASIN AND THE            
OTHER OVER ARIZONA.  SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN             
REGION DRAGS A WEAK COOL FRONT ACROSS THE NRN GREAT BASIN.  THIS IS             
THE TIME OF YEAR COOL FRONTS STRUGGLE TO PENETRATE INTO OUR FORECAST            
AREA.  THIS IS NO EXCEPTION AS THE SHORT WAVE DOES NOT HAVE A DIGGING           
JET ON THE BACK SIDE UNTIL IT REACHES THE NRN PLAINS.  HOWEVER...THE            
MODELS DO INDICATE THAT THE SHALLOW COOL FRONT DOES MOVE SOUTH OF               
THE COLORADO AND WYOMING BORDER THIS EVENING.  THIS MAY NOT HAVE                
MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER EXCEPT TO ENHANCE AFTERNOON               
BREEZES AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH OVER THE NRN VALLEYS.                               
WEAK CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION OFF THE SRN CALIFORNIA COAST IS SENDING             
A STREAM OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER SRN AND ERN ARIZONA.  LOW LEVELS            
REMAIN DRY BUT SUFFICIENT MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED               
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SAN JUAN AND WEST ELK MOUNTAINS.  THE GFS AND            
SREF MODEL SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR              
OVER SW COLORADO.  THIS CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED AS ISOLATED NOCTURNAL              
THUNDER OVER MONTEZUMA COUNTY FROM ARIZONAS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS IS NOT            
UNUSUAL.                                                                        
ON FRIDAY...DEFORMATION AXIS WILL BE ORIENTED WEST-EAST OVER SRN                
UTAH AND SRN COLORADO.  NORTH OF THIS AXIS...THE PACIFIC HIGH                   
CENTERED OVER THE NRN GREAT BASIN HAS A TENDENCY TO CAP CONVECTIVE              
POTENTIAL.  INSTABILITY LOOKS VERY MARGINAL...BUT A FEW STORMS                  
WILL STILL OCCUR OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF THE WEST SLOPE.                     
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...                                       
HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THESE PERIODS WITH SOME              
UNCERTAIN PROMISE OF INCREASED MOISTURE BY MID NEXT WEEK.                       
SATURDAY: WITH THE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR WEST...FROM EL PASO TO THE 4-              
CORNERS TO BOISE...A WARM NW FLOW CONTINUES. MOISTURE VERY LIMITED              
FOR NO MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW.                                        
SUNDAY-MONDAY: RIDGE AXIS TRANSLATES OVERHEAD AS THE WEST-COAST                 
TROUGH GETS ACTIVE. THIS ADD A FEW DEGREES TO ALREADY HOT                       
AFTERNOONS. A STRENGTHENED MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL                  
LIMIT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WINDS ALOFT VERY LIGHT WITH SFC WINDS              
TERRAIN DOMINATED.                                                              
TUESDAY-THURSDAY: RIDGE GETS SQUASHED JUST A BIT AS THE WEST-COAST              
TROUGH EJECTS ENERGY ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. RESULTING SW FLOW                  
PROMISES SOME SLIGHT MOISTURE INCREASE FAVORING THE SOUTHERN                    
MOUNTAINS WITH THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES             
POSSIBLE WITH THIS MOISTURE BUT DID NOT FULLY FOLLOW MEX TREND                  
TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR PREVAILS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OVER THE HIGH                  
TERRAIN.  MOST STORMS WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET...BUT A FEW STORMS             
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST COLORADO.             
GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS.                           
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS            
WILL CONTINUE TO EAT AWAY AT THE HIGH MOUNTAINS SNOWPACK WITH RUNOFF            
AND RIVER AND STREAM FLOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON A GRADUAL DOWNWARD             
TREND. AFTER COORDINATION WITH THE EMERGENCY MANAGER WENT AHEAD AND             
CANCELLED THE REMAINING FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE EAGLE RIVER BELOW                
GYPSUM. ALTHOUGH WATER LEVELS ARE DECREASING FLOWS REMAIN COLD...               
SWIFT...AND TURBULENT AND CAUTION IS URGED WHEN AROUND RIVERS AND               
STREAMS. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND FLOOD INFORMATION AT            
WEATHER.GOV/GJT                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.CO...NONE.                                                                     
.UT...NONE.                                                                     
$$                                                                              
UPDATE.........TAL                                                              
SHORT TERM.....PF                                                               
LONG TERM......JOE                                                              
AVIATION.......PF                                                               
HYDROLOGY......TAL                                                              
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL                                               
1116 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
HAVE ALREADY UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT HIGHER POPS EXPECTED ACROSS               
THE NORTH-CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...                
IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THIS IS THE REGION                  
WHERE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED...                 
NEAR A WEAK BOUNDARY. ALSO INCLUDED MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS/SMALL                
HAIL/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...BASED ON EVENTS FROM PREVIOUS DAYS.               
OTHERWISE...ADJUSTED WINDS UPWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC                    
WATERS...BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...AND ADDED SCEC HEADLINE                
TO THESE MARINE ZONES AS WELL AS BISCAYNE BAY. ALL UPDATED                      
PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.                                                
70/DD                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 731 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2008/                     
MORNING AVIATION...                                                             
THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY                    
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...EXCEPT FOR A WEST COAST SEA BREEZE THAT                  
WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT AFP TAF SITE. THE EASTERLY                 
WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR ONLY SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST TAF              
SITES TODAY...AND THUNDERSTORMS AT APF TAF SITE THIS AFTERNOON. SO              
WILL SHOW VCSH FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES...AND VCTS FOR APF TAF              
SITE BETWEEN 18Z AND 23Z.                                                       
THE SKIES AND VIS WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY FOR THE               
EAST COAST TAF SITES AND APF TAF SITE. WILL AMEND THE APF TAF                   
SITE AS NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON ONCE THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STARTED               
TO DEVELOP OVER THIS AREA.                                                      
AVIATION...54/BNB                                                               
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...RUC ANALYSIS AND THE RECENT                    
GUIDANCE INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA                   
PENINSULA. A PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS                       
CONTINUES TO COME ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ACROSS THE GULF              
AND OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER                  
LEVEL TROUGH WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN GULF. A TROPICAL                 
WAVE SOUTH OF CUBA IS ALSO INTERACTING WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION              
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO CONSIDERABLE                 
CLOUDINESS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF.                                            
RECENT GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE MID LEVELS WILL BE DRY IN THE                
SHORT TERM...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND                   
ASSOCIATED CIRRUS PERSISTING ACROSS THE REGION FOR AT LEAST THE                 
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE SOUTH FLORIDA              
PENINSULA AND LACK OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE...ONLY EXPECTING                    
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WITH THE EAST TO EAST               
SOUTHEAST LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS FAVORING THE WESTERN INTERIOR                  
SECTIONS AND THE NAPLES AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TREND SHOULD                  
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT PWATS               
SHOULD BE AROUND 1.7 INCHES THROUGH THIS PERIOD...SO ISOLATED                   
AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON                     
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT AGAIN FAVORING THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND               
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.                                                    
MARINE...                                                                       
LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL                 
PERSIST OVER THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN GENERAL                   
THE WINDS OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY              
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE...WITH 10 TO 15 KNOTS              
ELSEWHERE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE OFF SHORE GULF WATERS WILL              
BE NEAR 10 KNOTS WITH PERIODS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS POSSIBLE.                       
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WEST PALM BEACH  91  77  90  77 / 50 30 20 10                                   
FORT LAUDERDALE  90  79  90  80 / 40 20 20 10                                   
MIAMI            91  79  91  78 / 40 20 20 10                                   
NAPLES           91  74  93  75 / 50 20 30 10                                   
&&                                                                              
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
AM...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LONG TERM...70/DD                                                               
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...54/BNB                                                    
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL                                               
731 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2008                                                      
.MORNING AVIATION...                                                            
THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS             
SOUTH FLORIDA...EXCEPT FOR A WEST COAST SEA BREEZE THAT WILL                    
DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT AFP TAF SITE. THE EASTERLY WIND                 
FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR ONLY SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST TAF                   
SITES TODAY...AND THUNDERSTORMS AT APF TAF SITE THIS AFTERNOON. SO              
WILL SHOW VCSH FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES...AND VCTS FOR APF TAF              
SITE BETWEEN 18Z AND 23Z.                                                       
THE SKIES AND VIS WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY FOR THE               
EAST COAST TAF SITES AND APF TAF SITE. WILL ADMEND THE APF TAF                  
SITE AS NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON ONCE THE THUNDESTORMS HAVE STARTED                
TO DEVELOP OVER THIS AREA.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...54/BNB                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...RUC ANALYSIS AND THE RECENT                    
GUIDANCE INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA                   
PENINSULA. A PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS CONTINUES             
TO COME ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ACROSS THE GULF AND OVER THE           
SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WELL             
ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN GULF. A TROPICAL WAVE SOUTH OF CUBA                
IS ALSO INTERACTING WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL              
TROUGH AND ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IN THE                  
SOUTHEASTERN GULF.                                                              
RECENT GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE MID LEVELS WILL BE DRY IN THE                
SHORT TERM...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND                   
ASSOCIATED CIRRUS PERSISTING ACROSS THE REGION FOR AT LEAST THE                 
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE SOUTH                      
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND LACK OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE...ONLY                      
EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WITH THE                  
EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS FAVORING THE WESTERN              
INTERIOR SECTIONS AND THE NAPLES AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TREND                
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT              
PWATS SHOULD BE AROUND 1.7 INCHES THROUGH THIS PERIOD...SO                      
ISOLATED AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE EACH                      
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT AGAIN FAVORING THE WESTERN                  
INTERIOR AND MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.                                       
MARINE...                                                                       
LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL                 
PERSIST OVER THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN GENERAL THE               
WINDS OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY ARE              
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE...WITH 10 TO 15 KNOTS                  
ELSEWHERE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE OFF SHORE GULF WATERS WILL              
BE NEAR 10 KNOTS WITH PERIODS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS POSSIBLE.                       
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WEST PALM BEACH  90  77  90  77 / 30 20 20 10                                   
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  79  90  80 / 30 20 20 10                                   
MIAMI            90  79  91  78 / 20 20 20 10                                   
NAPLES           91  74  93  75 / 40 20 30 10                                   
&&                                                                              
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
AM...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LONG TERM...60/BD                                                               
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...47/RHG                                                    
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1041 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISSUED 1041 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2008                                              
RATHER COMPLICATED SFC PATTERN THIS MORNING WITH SEVERAL MESOSCALE              
FEATURES ON THE MAP. DECAYING MCS IS MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS                    
CENTRAL MISSOURI...WHILE ANOTHER MATURE MCS ROLLS ACROSS CENTRAL                
IOWA. MEANWHILE...LEFTOVER MCV WAS CENTERED JUST EAST OF KBMI...                
WITH A BOUNDARY ARCING JUST WEST OF KCMI DOWN TO NEAR KTAZ.                     
WITH WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AHEAD OF THE              
MCV AND ATTENDANT BOUNDARY...CANNOT OUTRULE SCATTERED CONVECTION                
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.                    
MCS OVER IOWA SEEMS LIKELY TO TAKE A DIVE TO THE SOUTH LIKE THE                 
PREVIOUS MCS DID...PERHAPS JUST GRAZING OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES                
THIS AFTERNOON. RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES DISTINCT BUBBLE OF STABLE                
AIR OVER ILLINOIS...WHILE INSTABILITY AXIS ARCS FROM NORTHWESTERN               
IOWA INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI...REMAINING JUST WEST OF THE                        
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IOWA MCS WILL MOSTLY LIKELY TEND TO DRIFT ESE                
WITH THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...THEN PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE                    
INSTABILITY AXIS... WHILE DECAYING SHOWERS MAY DRIFT INTO THE                   
WESTERN EDGE OF THE STABLE BUBBLE REGION.                                       
RESHAPED THE POP FORECAST CONSIDERING THESE FEATURES. ALSO COOLED               
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES IN THE WEST CONSIDERING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD                
COVER FROM CONVECTION TO THE WEST.                                              
WILL HAVE NEW ZONES AND FRESH GRIDS OUT AROUND 11 AM.                           
HARDIMAN                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISSUED 658 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2008                                               
MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD REVOLVE AROUND                
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES AND COVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING. VFR                     
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY PRECIPITATION.                           
A FEW DECAYING STORM COMPLEXES ARE MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST AT                 
THE MOMENT AND SHOULD LARGELY DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING. DO NOT                 
EXPECT THIS PRECIPITATION TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS.                              
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT BEHIND BY THESE STORM COMPLEXES MAY SERVE               
AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND                  
EVENING. HOW MUCH DEVELOPMENT AND WHERE IT OCCURS IS VERY                       
DEPENDANT ON WHERE THE BOUNDARIES END UP AND HOW MUCH THE SKIES                 
CLEAR AS THE MORNING SYSTEM DISSIPATES. THESE FACTORS MAKE                      
SPECIFIC TIMING AND LOCATION FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS TOO                   
TOUGH TO CALL AT THIS TIME. HAVE ONLY GONE WITH VCTS IN THE                     
TERMINALS FROM EARLY/MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY/MID EVENING AT THIS               
TIME. MORE DETAIL CAN BE ADDED THIS MORNING AS THINGS BECOME MORE               
CLEAR.                                                                          
INITIALLY VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING DUE TO THE CONVECTION WILL                
PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO 12=15 KTS.                 
WINDS WILL DIE OFF SOME AND TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AROUND SUNSET.                  
BAK                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
ISSUED 330 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2008                                               
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN HANDLING MCS/MCV ACTIVITY VERY WELL DURING                 
THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...SO CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST WHICH MAKES THIS                
FORECAST TRICKIER THAN NORMAL. CURRENT MCS/MCV OVER NE MO/SE IA                 
AND INTO CENTRAL IL WAS NOT DEPICTED BY MODELS. FORECAST CONCERN IS             
CONVECTION CHANCES AND SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THROUGH SAT.                
RADAR MOSAIC AND SATELLITE SHOWS A MCS/MCV OVER NE MO/SE IA AND                 
INTO CENTRAL IL WITH LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION ALONG I-55 WITH A               
THUNDERSTORM AS FAR EAST AS NORTHERN FORD COUNTY AND MOVING ESE.                
SEVERE WX THREAT APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED OVER CENTRAL IL WHILE               
STRONGER LINE OF STORMS WAS PLOWING SOUTH TOWARD I-70 IN CENTRAL                
MO. STILL GETTING SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINS ALONG THE IL              
RIVER AND JUST NORTH OF SPRINGFIELD. 08Z/3 AM SURFACE MAP SHOWS                 
1007 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A FRONTAL                  
BOUNDARY EXTENDING THROUGH CENTRAL WI...NORTHERN IA AND CENTRAL                 
NEBRASKA. MUGGY DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WHILE TEMPS WERE              
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. ALOFT A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE                  
RIDGE WAS SPRAWLED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES WHILE UPPER LEVEL                 
LOW/TROF OVER CANADA. SHORT WAVE TROF WAS OVER NW IL INTO MO WHERE              
MCS/MCV WAS. ANOTHER ONE WAS OVER OHIO AND YET ANOTHER OVER THE                 
DAKOTAS.                                                                        
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.                                            
CONVECTION FROM MCS TO WEAKEN DURING THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL IL               
LIKE IT DID YESTERDAY MORNING. BUT MCV FROM THIS MCS WILL DRIFT                 
INTO EASTERN/NE IL AND INDIANA AND WILL DEVELOP SCATTERED                       
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IN UNSTABLE AIR MASS SO KEPT 30 TO 40%                
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY IN              
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F WITH LOWER 90S IN SE IL WHERE MORE                  
SUNSHINE EXPECTED LIKE YESTERDAY. HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE                   
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. ANOTHER MCS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER                    
IA/NORTHERN IL AND MOVE ESE AND GOOD CHANCE IT WILL AFFECT AREAS                
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-74. SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS                   
NORTH OF A SPRINGFIELD TO PARIS LINE TONIGHT. HEAVY RAINS AND                   
FREQUENT LIGHTNING FROM THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.                                  
CONVECTION CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY NW OF                
I-55 AS UPPER LEVEL TROF AMPLIFIES/DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST AND                    
DRIVES A COLD FRONT SE INTO NW IL BY MIDNIGHT FRI NIGHT. HIGHS                  
AGAIN IN THE UPPER 80S WITH LOWER 90S SE IL AND HUMID WITH                      
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. LIKELY CHANCE OF CONVECTION               
FRI NIGHT NW OF I-70. SPC HAS IL IN SLIGHT RISK FRI NIGHT WHILE                 
GREAT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OVER CENTRAL/NW IL ALONG AND NW OF A                
DANVILLE TO TAYLORVILLE LINE. HAVE FRONT COLLIDING WITH A VERY                  
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH CAPES PEAKING FROM 2000 TO 4000 J/KG. COULD              
BE WIDESPREAD SEVERE HAIL/WINDS FRI NIGHT ESPECIALLY FRI EVENING                
WITH TORNADO THREAT MORE OVER NORTHERN IL WHERE MORE FAVORABLE                  
STRONGER WIND FIELDS. COLD FRONT SLIDES SE THROUGH CENTRAL IL                   
AFTER MIDNIGHT FRI NIGHT AND THRU SE IL SAT. BEST CHANCES OF                    
CONVECTION SHIFT INTO EASTERN/SE IL SAT WHERE SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK               
OF SEVERE. SHOWERS TO END OVER THE IL RIVER VALLEY SAT AFTERNOON.               
A BIT COOLER HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S BUT RATHER HUMID YET WITH              
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.                                                           
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                                   
EXTENDED MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL LOW SETTLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES              
THIS WEEKEND AND OVER NORTHERN LOWER MI SUNDAY. IT NOW APPEARS                  
CLOSE ENOUGH TO CENTRAL IL TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND                      
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS SLOWLY EAST              
MON/TUE WITH DRY WX EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL/SE IL AND LESS HUMID AIR              
MASS. COOLED HIGHS A BIT THOUGH NOT QUITE AS COOL AS MEX/ECMWF                  
HIGHS IN THE 70S SUN/MON. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY TUE/WED AS                
UPPER LEVEL LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES.                        
HUETTL                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
632 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR 12Z TAFS...VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AVIATION CONCERNS TODAY                
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL DAY.                                           
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY                 
ALLOWING SOUTH WINDS TO BE A BIT STRONGER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS.               
MOST SITES(WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KCNU) CAN EXPECT SOUTH WINDS AT 20             
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THE BULK OF THE STORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT              
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF KANSAS ALONG A COLD FRONT.                                 
LAWSON                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
FORECAST CONCERNS...CONVECTIVE CHANCES/TRENDS AND SEVERE POTENTIAL              
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.                                          
ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES IN SENSIBLE WEATHER EXPECTED FOR TODAY...SO                 
WILL FOLLOW A MODIFIED PERSISTENCE APPROACH TO THE FORECAST AND                 
MOST GRID ELEMENTS TODAY. A BIT MORE OF A CAP EARLY THIS MORNING                
BASED ON RUC MODEL...SO HOPEFULLY WILL NOT SEE ANOTHER SUNRISE                  
SURPRISE TOWARD DAWN...ISOLATED AS IT WAS YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE                  
EXPECT A COUPLE LOCALES TO APPROACH/TOUCH THE CENTURY MARK ACROSS               
CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE MAXS IN THE LOW/MID 90S                  
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...IT WILL FEEL CLOSE TO 100 WITH COMBO                 
OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY.                                                           
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS NORTHWEST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING MAY                 
CLIP NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...SO WILL                   
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE IN FOR THOSE AREAS. HOWEVER...MAIN FOCUS FOR               
MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL COME LATER FRIDAY INTO EARLY                     
SATURDAY MORNING...AS A STRONG SUMMER-TIME UPPER TROF AND THE                   
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS                  
TROF WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH A REINFORCING SHOT                 
OF COOLISH/DRIER AIR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE FRONT ON                   
FRIDAY EVENING LOOKS TO ENCOUNTER A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS                
EASTERN KANSAS...AND CONFIDENCE CONTINUES BUILD ON A SEVERE                     
CONVECTIVE EPISODE...SO HAVE UPPED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY                
FOR AREAS EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE FRIDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME                  
QUESTION AS TO THE TIMING/SOUTHWARD MOVE OF THE FRONT...WITH THE                
NAM MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN OTHER MODELS. THIS MAY HAVE MORE OF AN                
IMPACT ON MAXS FOR CENTRAL KANSAS ON FRIDAY...AND FOR NOW WILL                  
STILL KEEP THINGS QUITE TOASTY...HOWEVER AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL                 
LOOK TO BE THE HOTTEST...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WEST AND SOUTHWEST                
OF GREATER WICHITA WHERE PERHAPS A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SOME                
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING EFFECTS WILL ENHANCE MAX POTENTIAL LATE IN                
THE AFTERNOON.                                                                  
OTHERWISE...HAVE TEMPERED MAXS FOR THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY FOR                 
SUNDAY...WITH MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTING RELATIVELY COOLER AIR                  
WILL HOLD SWAY THRU THE WEEKEND NOW.                                            
DARMOFAL                                                                        
AVIATION...                                                                     
06Z TAFS...ICT/SLN/HUT/CNU/RSL...VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED OVER                
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STRENGTHENING AND VEERING LOW-LEVEL JET TONIGHT              
MAY INITIATE A STRAY THUNDERSTORM SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL AND                  
SOUTHEAST KANSAS TONIGHT...BUT PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW AND                    
COVERAGE TOO SPARSE TO MENTION VCTS IN THE TAFS.                                
OTHERWISE...STOUT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL COMMENCE BY MID-MORNING                  
THURSDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH                  
PLAINS...AND A COLD FRONT GETS ITS ACT TOGETHER NORTHWEST OF THE                
AREA.                                                                           
KLEINSASSER                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    95  73  97  71 /  10  10  20  50                                
HUTCHINSON      96  72  98  69 /  10  10  30  50                                
NEWTON          95  73  97  70 /  10  10  30  50                                
ELDORADO        94  73  95  71 /  10  10  20  60                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   94  73  96  72 /  10  10  20  60                                
RUSSELL        100  71  95  66 /  10  20  40  20                                
GREAT BEND      99  71  97  67 /  10  10  40  30                                
SALINA          99  73  97  68 /  10  20  40  40                                
MCPHERSON       97  73  97  69 /  10  10  40  40                                
COFFEYVILLE     92  72  93  72 /  10  10  20  60                                
CHANUTE         92  72  93  72 /  10  20  20  60                                
IOLA            92  72  93  72 /  10  20  20  60                                
PARSONS-KPPF    92  72  93  72 /  10  10  20  60                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
1043 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2008                                                     
.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TODAY/...UPDATED                                     
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE UPDATE THIS MORNING WILL DEAL WITH THE THREAT            
FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN CHANGE TO POPS WAS TO ADD A FEW           
MORE COUNTIES A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH IN THE CHANCE POP RANGE. CURRENT           
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC 13 SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR AN APPROACHING WEAK           
SHORT WAVE TO INFLUENCE COUNTIES MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64. THE             
FEELING IS THAT SCATTERED COVERAGE WOULD REPRESENT THE AREA                     
INFLUENCED BY THE WAVE AND ISOLATED COVERAGE WOULD REPRESENT THE                
AREAS FURTHER SOUTH WHO NEED TO REACH THEIR CONVECTIVE TEMPS. LAPS              
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WEAK WIND PROFILE THROUGH THE ENTIRE              
COLUMN...SO ANY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE VERY HARD TO COME              
BY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ORGANIZATION WOULD BE IN THE NORTH WHERE            
BETTER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK SHORTWAVE.           
CURRENT SURFACE OBS SHOW 14Z TEMPERATURES WELL ON THEIR WAY TO THE              
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. DID NOT CHANGE MUCH IN THE WAY OF               
TEMPERATURES...ONLY MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.            
EXPECT MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY...SETTING UP THE                  
APPROACHING WEEKEND SYSTEM. UPDATED ZFP OUT SHORTLY.                            
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                          
/TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/                                                    
MOISTURE RETURN WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY           
AS UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. FLOW            
PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL...LEAVING US OPEN TO MORE                 
EMBEDDED WEAK SHORT WAVES. HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED POPS FOR ALL                
TODAY WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES LIKELY BEING REACHED FOR SOME.               
BETTER CHANCE WILL EXIST IN THE BLUEGRASS COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE                
TRAIN OF TRAVERSING WEAK DISTURBANCES ALONG WITH AMPLE MOISTURE                 
RETURN...SO HAVE GONE WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON.               
STUCK CLOSER TO THE NAM MOS FOR HIGHS AT JKL...WHILE USING THE GFS              
MOS FOR LOZ AND SME.                                                            
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL RE-FIRE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY                  
EVENING AS WE BECOME MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF TROUGHING TAKING               
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH ADDITIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES              
MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA. INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGHS A BIT            
COOLER ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL KEEP THE           
AIR MASS VERY MUGGY. USED A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND THE LATEST                 
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.                    
.LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/                                       
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL DEAL THE                  
APPROACH AND ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UNSEASONABLY            
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHWEST. HAVE DECIDED TO BLEND                  
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS AS SLOWER AND MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK              
SEEMS TO BE THE WAY TO GO. THE LATEST HPC DISCUSSIONS SEEMS TO AGREE            
WITH THIS DECISION AS WELL. AS A RESULT...HAVE SLOWED THE SYSTEM                
DOWN WHICH WILL GIVE US PRETTY GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN...POSSIBLY                 
HEAVY AT TIMES...STARTING SATURDAY AND ENDING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.                 
AN INTERESTING SETUP WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST               
COAST SHOULD PROVIDE PLENTY OF MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM              
ON SATURDAY. UPLIFT FROM MULTIPLE WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE HIGHLY                  
AMPLIFIED H5 TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUING CHANCES OF                        
PRECIPITATION. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED POPS TO GOOD CHANCE AND                  
LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE EVENT. LATEST GUIDANCE VALUES ALSO CAME IN               
WITH HIGHER POPS ADDING CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST.                             
BASED ON NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SOME CONCERN IS STARTING TO               
GROW WITH REGARD TO HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON             
AND NIGHT. VERY MOIST/TROPICAL LIKE SOUNDINGS SHOW TALL SKINNY CAPE             
PROFILES AND PWAT VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES ON SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST TO              
NORTHEAST LINEAR FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND FAIRLY SLOW              
STORM MOTIONS PARALLEL TO THIS COULD RESULT IN TRAINING OF VERY                 
EFFICIENT THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION CLOSELY            
AND KEEP THE NAM MOISTURE BIAS IN MIND. HAVE DECIDED TO MENTION THE             
POSSIBILITY OF THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE HWO.                
THE COLD FRONT FINALLY MOVES THROUGH SOMETIME ON SUNDAY WITH POPS               
ENDING LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT THE REST OF THE EXTENDED DRY            
FOR NOW...HOWEVER LINGERING MOISTURE AND ANY WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE              
RETREATING H5 TROUGH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME VERY ISOLATED COVERAGE. TOO           
MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT THIS POINT TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.            
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES. ONLY MADE A              
FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE VALUES.                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../12Z TO 12Z/                                                        
WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL WORK TO KEEP CONVECTION TO A MINIMUM OVER EAST            
KENTUCKY AGAIN TODAY. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR               
THUNDERSTORM...ACCORDINGLY KEPT THE MODERATELY HIGH BASED CB SCT                
GROUP IN THE TAFS FROM EARLY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...           
HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE AREA. SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY            
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.            
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN/SCHOETTMER                                               
LONG TERM....SCHOETTMER                                                         
AVIATION...GREIF                                                                
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1115 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
DUE TO LAST NIGHTS RAIN/LIGHT WINDS/50S DEWPOINTS...WIDESPREAD FOG              
DEVELOPED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTHERN UPR MI              
LATE LAST NIGHT. NW/N WINDS OVR LK SUPERIOR AND IN AREAS EAST OF                
KEWEENAW PENINSULA TO WHITEFISH POINT WILL KEEP SOME FOG AND LOW                
CLOUDS INTO EARLY AFTN...AT LEAST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORE. FOG                
OVR KEWEENAW IS ALREADY LIFTING...DUE TO WEAK ADVECTION OF DRY AIR              
HANGING OUT OVR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. ONSHORE FLOW/CLOUDS/FOG                  
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S TO UPR 60S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR                 
SHORE EAST OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. MAINLY SUNNY SKIES INLAND AND             
STILL WARM H85/H8 TEMPS LEAD TO MAX TEMPS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S            
OVR SCNTRL SECTIONS AWAY FM BAY OF GREEN BAY. MODIFIED GRB SOUNDING             
FOR T/TD OF 85/63 AND THAT DID GIVE SBCAPE AOA 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER               
...DRY MID LEVEL AIR IS EVIDENT AS IS SOME CAPPING AROUND 750MB AND             
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ANY SHOWERS IS NIL. ABOUT THE ONLY TRIGGER              
WOULD BE LAKE BREEZE FRONT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT THAT WOULD APPEAR            
TO BE PRETTY SHALLOW AND NOT SUFFICIENT TO KICK OFF ANY CONVECTION.             
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION (530 AM EDT)...                                                     
MAIN CONCERNS FOCUS ON TIMING OF CONVECTION ON FRIDAY AND POSSIBLE              
SVR STORMS...THEN LINGERING SHRA/TSRA INTO THE WEEKEND.                         
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW ZONAL FLOW ACROSS            
THE NRN CONUS. SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR LAST NIGHT`S CONVECTION HAS            
MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. IR SATELLITE NOW SHOWS CLEARING SKIES FROM              
THE WEST AS MID LVL RDGG AND SUBSIDENCE NOSE INTO THE AREA.                     
HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH (UPR 50S TO LOW 60S) AND FOG             
LINGERS OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING AND OVER THE              
SHORELINE AREAS.                                                                
TODAY...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE TO                 
LIFT AFTER SUNRISE WITH SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING UNDER MID-LVL RIDGING            
AND SUBSIDENCE. 800 MB TEMPS NEAR 12C MIXING TO THE SFC SHOULD YIELD            
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S OVER THE WRN INTERIOR. LAKE BREEZES                      
DEVELOPING WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER (LOWER 70S) NEAR THE GREAT LAKES              
AND OVER THE ERN FCST AREA.                                                     
TONIGHT...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF              
THE SFC HIGH ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN WAA MID-HIGH               
LVL CLOUDS FROM THE SW LATE AHEAD OF NEXT INCOMING SHORTWAVE. EXPECT            
LOWS TO GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS               
EAST WHERE SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR MOST OF THE NIGHT.                             
FRIDAY...GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE NAM/UKMET/ECMWF AND SREF             
MODELS AS THE GFS AND EVEN THE GLOBAL GEM LOOK TO BE AFFECTED BY                
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. ALL THESE MODELS BRING THE LEAD SHORTWAVE INTO             
THE AREA ON FRI AHEAD OF AN UPR TROF/CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE             
NRN PLAINS. 305K ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOC WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL               
SUPPORT THE INITIAL BATCH OF CONVECTION SPREADING SW TO NE ACROSS               
THE FCST AREA...MAINLY LATE FRI. BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS                
WEST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS SINCE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER                    
AGREEMENT ON TIMING/COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA. STRONG MOISTURE INFLOW               
WITH PWAT INCREASING TO AOA 1.5 INCHES COULD SUPPORT HEAVY DOWNPOURS            
WITH THE SHOWERS. MUCAPE VALUES INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE AND               
0-6KM BULK SHEAR INTO THE 30-40 KT RANGE WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT              
SOME STRONGER STORMS. HOWEVER...HIGH FREEZING LEVELS (13-14 KFT)                
SHOULD  LIMIT LARGE HAIL THREAT. SPC STILL HAS THE ENTIRE U.P IN A              
SLIGHT RISK OF SVR FOR THE DAY2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.                             
FRI NIGHT...AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW SINKS SLOWLY ESE TOWARD THE              
UPPER GREAT LAKES...A DRY SLOT WILL SPREAD THROUGH THE AREA REDUCING            
PCPN CHANCES. FOLLOWED THE PREFERRED SLOWER TIMING OF THE ECMWF AND             
SREF WITH THIS FEATURE SO KEPT IN SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WITH THE HIGHEST            
POPS OVER THE EASTERN FCST AREA.                                                
SAT INTO SUN...FOLLOWED THE NCEP PREFERRED GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLN               
WITH MVMT OF THE UPR LOW WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE OPERATIONAL 00Z                
ECMWF RUN. FCST 500 MB TEMPS OF -17C/-18C WITH STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL              
LAPSE RATES AND FORCING FROM SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL            
SUPPORT SCT SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY SUN...WITH NRLY LOW                
LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING...MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY              
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE WILL BE CONTINUED CHCS FOR LIGHT RAIN OR             
SHOWERS BUT TSTM SHOULD CHANCES SHOULD BE DWINDLING.                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WEB CAMS INDICATED FAIRLY EXTENSIVE FOG                
OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR EXTENDING INTO THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.                   
UPSLOPING WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP LIFR CONDITIONS IN                     
FOG/STRATUS APPEAR LIKELY THERE UNTIL AROUND 15Z...WHEN CONDITIONS              
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REST            
OF THE FCST PERIOD. AT KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH               
THE FORECAST PERIOD.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING             
WINDS WILL LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL                 
MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND INTO LAKE SUPERIOR ON                 
FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL               
TIGHTEN FOLLOWING THE LOW CAUSING WIND TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS            
FOR A PERIOD OVER CENTRAL AND EAST EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. BY                    
SUNDAY...THE LOW FILLING SLIGHTLY AND SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER LOWER            
MICHIGAN BY SUNDAY MORNING WILL CAUSE THE WINDS TO LESS AN 20 KNOTS             
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.                                                
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...JLA                                                                    
DISCUSSION...VOSS                                                               
AVIATION...ROLFSON/DLG                                                          
MARINE...KF                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
1042 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE                     
CENTERED NEAR THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA. HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO                  
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH AND                        
WEST...MAINLY CIRRUS DEBRIS FROM CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES THAT WILL                 
REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.                            
STILL...EXPECTING HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTINUE STREAMING ACROSS THE                  
AREA...FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...THROUGH THE DAY...AND HAVE BUMPED UP               
SKY COVER ACCORDINGLY. ALSO RAISED AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY                 
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...MAINLY JUST 1-2 DEGREES...PERHAPS A TAD               
MORE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. SILVER BAY HAD ALREADY REACHED 79 AT                
15Z...BUT A LAKE BREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.               
LATEST RUC AND NAM GUIDANCE PROPAGATES A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE                    
CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/WESTERN MINNESOTA INTO THE                  
BORDERLAND THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY                    
INCREASE WITH THIS FEATURE...NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN ISOLATED                   
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...AS THIS FEATURE WILL BE RUNNING INTO                 
INCREASINGLY DRY AIR AND RATHER MARGINAL INSTABILITY. DID BRING                 
SILENT POPS A BIT FURTHER EAST.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
RUC13 ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING INDICATES TEMPORARY RIDGING IN MID            
LVLS WITH ASSOCIATED DEEPENING OF NWRLY FLOW. ALTHOUGH SFC FLOW HAS             
DECOUPLED...WSRVWPDLH SHOWS AVERAGE 320/20KT FLOW FROM 2K TO 5K FT.             
TOUGH CALL ON EARLY MORNING FOG AS POTENTIAL TURBULENT KINETIC                  
ENERGY FROM STRONGER WINDS JUST ABOVE GROUND LVL MAY GENERATE JUST              
ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION. WITH SFC T/TD                   
SPREADS ALREADY LESS THAN 2 DEGREES IN MOST OF NORTHEAST MN...WILL              
MENTION AREAS OF FOG. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE NOT VERY HIGH.                       
TODAY...LARGE MASS OF DEBRIS CLOUDS HEADING TOWARDS WRN CWA                     
THIS MORNING FROM NEBRASKA CONVECTION. 85/30H THICKNESS PATTERN                 
SUGGESTS THIS CONVECTION WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD THIS                           
MORNING...OUTRUNNING THE LLJ AND MSTR TRANSPORT MAXIMUM FARTHER                 
WEST. OTHERWISE...FAIRLY QUIET DAY AS LL WINDS EVENTUALLY SHIFT INTO            
SOUTHEAST ACROSS MN ZONES AND HUMIDITY INCREASES ONCE AGAIN.                    
CONSENSUS OF MDLS IS THAT AREA WILL REMAIN QPF FREE TODAY. SIM WRF              
REFLECTIVITY PRODUCT DOES GENERATE CONVECTION LATE TODAY NEAR KOOCH             
COUNTY HOWEVER IT DOES NOT SEEM TO HAVE INITIAL SITUATION HANDLED               
VERY WELL. EXPECT WARM TEMPS TODAY ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS WARM AS                
YESTERDAY AS LL THICKNESS/85H TEMPS HAVE DROPPED SEVERAL DEGREES.               
TONIGHT/FRIDAY...MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON MAIN SYNOPTIC                        
FEATURES/MASS FIELDS. SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS ARISE WITH MULTIPLE                  
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES ON GFS..AND PERHAPS EC AS WELL. WILL USE             
A MORE AVERAGE APPROACH AS DEPICTED BY LATEST SREF/UKM. THIS BRINGS             
A DEEPENING ELONGATED SFC LOW PRESSURE INTO THE WRN CWA BY EARLY                
FRIDAY MORNING. SFC PATTERN IS COMPLICATED BY POTENTIAL PHASING OF              
TWO SEPARATE SHORTWAVES...ONE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM MANITOBA AND              
ONE EJECTING FROM PLAINS. LOOKS LIKE AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SWEEP               
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY WITH TRIPLE POINT NEAR TWIN PORTS BY                   
MIDDAY...REDEVELOPING TOWARDS NWRN WISC BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.SPC HAS             
SLIGHT RISK OF SVR OVER SWRN CRNR OF CWA...EXTENDING TO SRN BURNETT             
CO. BY 12Z FRI. DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...ENTIRE CWA IS UNDER SLIGHT              
RISK. IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THREAT WILL BE SOUTH OF TWIN              
PORTS AND INTO WISCONSIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHERE SREF IS                
INDICATING HIGHER PROBABILITY OF SBCAPE.                                        
EXTENDED...AS ADVERTISED WITH GOOD CONSISTENCY AMONG MDL                        
SUITE...ANOMALOUS MID LVL LOW WILL SWEEP INTO REGION FOR THE                    
WEEKEND. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPS AND LIKELIHOOD OF                     
SHOWERS/TRW WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES SATURDAY. SUNDAY SHOULD                 
BRING SOME DECREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH DECREASING CHANCE               
OF POPS. MONDAY/TUESDAY SHOULD BE PLEASANT WITH SUNSHINE RETURNING              
AND TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO 80S BY TUESDAY.                                       
AVIATION...                                                                     
AFTER SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR            
CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A               
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN                
OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE                    
FRONT...AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP...MAINLY AROUND KBRD EAST              
TOWARD KHYR. WINDS OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR MAY CAUSE MARINE BASED MVFR             
OR IFR CEILINGS AND SOME FOG LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THAT WILL                
AFFECT KDLH/KASX AND POSSIBLY INTO KHIB.                                        
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  81  56  69  51 /  10  30  60  40                                           
INL  82  52  74  55 /  10  30  60  50                                           
BRD  83  60  75  55 /  10  70  60  30                                           
HYR  84  56  74  55 /  10  50  60  40                                           
ASX  80  56  73  53 /  10  20  60  40                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
BETTWY                                                                          
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
1024 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS LOWER CANADA, WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD                
FRONT ACROSS NY AND PA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL CAUSE                    
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM, WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS                       
POSSIBLE.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
UPDATED AT 1015 AM...-SHRA ASSCD WITH MCV PULLING OUT...AND FOCUS               
TURNS TO POTNL REDVLPMNT THIS AFTN. RUC PROFILES SHOW THE DVLPMNT               
OF A MID LVL CAPPING LAYER...A FEATURE WHICH IS EVIDENT IN THE                  
UPSTREAM DTX AND APX SNDGS AND TAMDAR DATA. K INDICES FALL INTO                 
THE M20S ACRS CNTRL NY THIS AFTN...NOT FVRBL FOR REDVLPMNT. XTNSV               
CLD CVR ACRS THE RGN...WITH EXTRAPOLATION OF BACKEDGE INTO THE                  
FINGER LAKES AND CNTRL SRN TIER IN THE 19-22Z TIME FRAME...WHICH IS IN          
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LAMP DATA. BEST POTNL MAY ACTUALLY BE THIS                  
EVENING IN THE 00Z-06Z TIME FRAME...AS INFLUENCES FROM WEAK S/WV                
AND SFC TROF BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON NW ZONES...WHERE GREATEST INSTAB              
SHUD RESIDE DUE TO MORE LATE DAY SUNSHINE. COULD ALSO SEE SOME                  
ACTIVITY LATE ACRS WRN AD CNTRL PA..WHICH COULD PSBLY AFFECT THE                
AVP AREA LATE TDA OR THIS EVNG. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT ANY POTNL                   
REDVLPMNT...IF IT OCCURS...WILL BE VERY LATE. BELIEVE SLGT CHC TO               
LOW CHC POPS WILL COVER IT FOR THIS AFTN. PREV BLO...                           
PULLED BACK ON POPS OVER NORTHERN HALF OF FA AS MCS REMNANTS WILL               
BE MORE SCATTERED IN THIS AREA.                                                 
FOCUS TODAY IS ON SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.                  
LATEST NAM SEEMS FAR TOO MOIST IN PUSHING AVP DEW POINT INTO THE                
UPPER 60S. BASED ON SFC PARCEL TRAJECTORIES FROM MI/OH, IT APPEARS              
MID 60S IS A REALISTIC RANGE FOR MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.                     
COMBINED WITH FORECAST MAXES OF 78F-82F, WE GET CAPES AROUND                    
1100-1400 J/KG AND LI`S OF -2C TO -3C.                                          
THESE VALUES ARE NOT NEARLY AS UNSTABLE AS INDICATED BY MODELS 24               
HOURS AGO. ALSO, THE MODELS HAVE PULLED BACK ON THE MID LEVEL FLOW              
QUITE A BIT. WE ARE NOW LOOKING AT 30-35 KTS AT MID LEVELS, AS                  
OPPOSED TO THE ORIGINALLY FORECAST 50 KTS. BIG DIFFERENCE,                      
ESPECIALLY GIVEN LACK OF UL JET STREAK. THIS CUTS DOWN ON THE                   
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION.                                             
SO THIS EVENT NO LONGER APPEARS SIGNIFICANT. HOWEVER SEVERE                     
POTENTIAL REMAINS, WITH FOCUS LIKELY TO BE INFLUENCED BY                        
BOUNDARIES REMAINING FROM THIS MORNING`S CONVECTION. MAIN THREAT                
WILL BE FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. FLOW ALOFT DOES NOT SEEM TO                 
INDICATE STRONG WINDS WITHOUT A STRONG SQUALL LINE. MORE LIKELY WE              
WILL SEE SCATTERED, DISCRETE CELLS WITH A FEW PULSING TO SEVERE                 
LEVELS.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...                                  
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND DOES NOT LOOK NEARLY AS PESSIMISTIC.              
THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE FRIDAY, WITH A                
FEW STRONG CELLS POSSIBLE.                                                      
AS UPPER LOW DEVELOPS ON SATURDAY, MULTIPLE WAVES WILL ROTATE                   
THROUGH NY AND PA. HOWEVER THE FORCING IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG               
ON ANY GIVEN WAVE. HAVE PULLED BACK POPS TO REFLECT SCATTERED                   
CONVECTION ON SATURDAY, AND KEPT LIKELY WORDING IN FOR SATURDAY                 
NIGHT.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                        
MED RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW REASONABLY GOOD                      
AGREEMENT FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...IN WHAT WILL BE A RATHER UNSETTLED             
PATTERN TO START OFF...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT DURING THE               
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. PESKY HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW WITH CUTOFF LOW                   
PRESSURE IN PLACE TO OUR WEST AND NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO FEED THE               
AREA WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ON SWLY FLOW...ALONG WITH PERIODIC                    
DISTURBANCES EJECTING OUT OF THE MAIN SYSTEM ON SUN-MON. EXPECT                 
MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WITH AN                   
EXPECTED FROPA. THEN...CUTOFF LOW IS PROGGED TO OPEN AND LIFT                   
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY WITH COLD CORE SHOWERS. A RETURN TO                    
DRIER NWLY FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNSDAY. PRETTY MUCH STAYED               
WITH CONTINUITY IN THE FCST...BUT MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO RAIN                 
CHANCES MAINLY DURING THE DARK PERIODS WHERE STABILIZATION SHOULD               
REALLY HELP TO LIMIT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. ALSO LOWERED POPS BELOW               
CHC ON TUES NITE/WEDNESDAY WHICH LOOKS RAIN FREE BARRING ANY SLOW               
DOWN OF TROF PASSAGE.                                                           
STUCK CLOSE TO 18Z HPC/00Z GMOS TEMPERATURE BLEND.                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                      
IN GENERAL...VFR IS EXPECTED MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. EXCEPTION BEING               
AREAS OF MVFR VSBY/CIGS THROUGH 15Z-18Z THIS MORNING AS AREAS OF                
RAIN SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH...FOLLOWED BY DEVELOPING CU. IMPROVEMENT              
TO VFR SCT-BKN CU/TCU AFT 18Z...HOWEVER TSRA BECOME MORE OF A                   
CONCERN FOR TERMINAL OPERATIONS THROUGH 00Z. TONIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR            
FOG MAY DEVELOP AT STATIONS WHICH RECEIVE RAINFALL. KELM MAY                    
DEVELOP VLIFR FOG AFT 06Z.                                                      
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
FRI...VFR.                                                                      
FRI NITE THRU MON...AREAS OF MVFR IN TSRA/SHRA.                                 
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
PA...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...DJP                                                                  
NEAR TERM...                                                                    
SHORT TERM...DJP                                                                
LONG TERM...JAB                                                                 
AVIATION...JAB                                                                  
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
321 PM MDT THU JUN 26 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)                                                            
...MAIN CONCERN IS "DRY" THUNDERSTORMS I-25 CORRIDOR/MOUNTAINS/HIGH             
VALLEYS AND "WET" STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST CO THROUGH              
THIS EVENING AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...                                      
CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC MODEL UPPER AIR ANALYSES DID            
SHOW A FRAGMENTED 500-300MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTHEASTWARD               
OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND FOUR CORNERS AREA THIS MORNING AND              
EARLY AFTERNOON. I WAS THINKING...AND STILL...THIS MIGHT BE THE                 
TRIGGER FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.                 
REGIONAL RADAR DID SHOW THE FIRST SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING              
ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE AND NORTH CENTRAL CO MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS               
AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL FUEL HAS BEEN "MIXING OUT" WITH SURFACE DEW            
POINTS DROPPING INTO THE 20S AND TEEN ALONG I-25 CORRIDOR PUEBLO TO             
RATON MESA AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS/HIGH VALLEYS. DEW POINTS IN THE             
40S TO LOWER 50S WERE HANGING ON ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE INTO THE              
FAR SOUTHEASTERN CO PLAINS...BUT WITH RELATIVELY DRIER AIR                      
ALOFT...THESE DEW POINTS MAY TANK...TOO.  SURFACE TEMPERATURES                  
PRETTY WARM...WELL IN THE 90S...APPROACHING 100F...BELOW 6K FT MSL.             
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...I HAVE DEFINITELY TRIMMED BACK             
POPS/WX ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS/HIGH                   
VALLEYS. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL TRIGGER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE               
CENTRAL ROCKIES ALONG WITH ENOUGH HEATING AND INSTABILITY...THERE IS            
STILL A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF             
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. PRIMARY STORM TYPE                
SHOULD BE PULSE DOWNBURST WINDS ALONG I-25 CORRIDOR PUB-RATON MESA              
AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS/HIGH VALLEYS.  A FEW STRONG TO MAYBE                   
MARGINAL SEVERE MIGHT BE POSSIBLE FROM THE PALMER DIVIDE TO THE FAR             
SOUTHEASTERN CO PLAINS GIVEN A LITTLE MORE CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE                 
ENERGY IN THESE AREAS THIS EVENING. GENERALLY ALONG THE I-25                    
CORRIDOR AND MOUNTAINS/HIGH VALLEYS...ISOLATED "DRY" THUNDERSTORMS              
WILL BE THE RULE GIVEN VERY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE SUB-CLOUD                
LAYER PER THE CLASSIC INVERTED-V SOUNDING DATA...ESPECIALLY WITH LCL            
HEIGHTS ABOUT 2K-4K FT HIGHER THAN THE FREEZING LEVEL AND A VERY                
UNSTABLE AND "DRY" SUB-CLOUD LAYER. PRIMARILY LOOKING AT CLOUD TO               
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH...AND VERY LITTLE            
OR NO RAINFALL. COVERAGE SHOULD BE RATHER LOW...SO NO RED FLAG WILL             
BE ISSUED FOR DRY LIGHTNING...BUT "DRY THUNDERSTORMS" WILL BE                   
MENTIONED IN THE FWF TEXT PRODUCT.                                              
FRIDAY...A CHALLENGING DAY. MODELS STILL SUGGEST A COLD FRONT TO                
MOVE THROUGH EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST CO PRIMARILY DURING THE                 
AFTERNOON. TRYING TO TIME THESE BOUNDARIES ARE QUITE THE                        
CHALLENGE...AS SOMETIMES THEY ARE FASTER. I REALLY DON`T SEE ANY                
SIGNALS OF A FASTER FRONTAL PUSH OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. SO               
WILL PLAN ON THE FRONT "OOZING" INTO EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST CO              
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS AHEAD AND BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY               
WILL BE DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT. SOUTH AND WEST OF THE BOUNDARY...VERY            
LOW DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE...WHILE SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE                  
40S/50S WILL BE COMMON BEHIND THE FRONT. GENERALLY...ALONG THE                  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SOUTH AND WESTWARD...THERE IS VERY LITTLE                  
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND MAINLY A "DRY" THUNDERSTORM OR "VIRGA              
SHOWER BOMBS" THREAT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS/HIGH VALLEYS               
AGAIN. AGAIN...THINK THE POTENTIAL COVERAGE IS LOW ISOLATED AT                  
BEST...SO NO FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR DRY LIGHTNING...BUT WILL MENTION            
"DRY" THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FWF AND DISCUSSION FOR THESE AREAS. AHEAD            
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT...PROBABLY         
90S TO AROUND 100F AGAIN. ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE MORE OF            
A "WET" THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WITH SOME STORMS POSSIBLY                        
STRONG-SEVERE. SURFACE-BASED CAPES WILL BE 1K-2.5K J/KG WITH                    
SURFACE-BASED LIFTED INDICES OF -4C TO -6C...WHICH CONVECTIVE ARE               
VERY RESPECTABLE IN TERMS OF INSTABILITY AND AVAILABLE ENERGY.                  
ASSUMING THE NAM-WRF IS CORRECT WITH ITS SURFACE DEW POINT FORECAST             
OF 50S DEW POINTS BEING SHOVED UP AGAINST THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.                
THERE WILL BE WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ALONG AND BEHIND THE                   
FRONT...BUT THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO FORCE A              
BREAK-THROUGH TO FREE CONVECTION. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE               
30-50KTS...WHICH COULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. IT MAY BE A MIX OF                   
ORDINARY...MULTICELLULAR...AND SUPERCELLS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE             
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IF THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY IS SLOW OR                          
STATIONARY...THEN A BRIEF TORNADO COULD NOT BE RULED OUT...BUT THE              
PROBABILITY IS PRETTY LOW. METZE                                                
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)                                                  
...MAIN CHALLENGE IS STRENGTH AND AMOUNT OF CONVECTION SATURDAY...              
.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH             
THE REGION BY MID EVENING FRIDAY WITH UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUING ON THE            
PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS INTO SATURDAY.  NAM AND GFS HAS                    
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S ON THE PLAINS SATURDAY.  WITH MODEST                 
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BULK SHEARS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 30                 
KNOTS WHICH IS IN THE LOWER END OF THE RANGE FOR SEVERE CONVECTION.             
HAVE SOME CONCERNS FOR THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION ON SATURDAY.  MODEL             
SOUNDINGS SHOW A CAP AROUND 650 MB THOUGH THE MORNING.  IN THE                  
AFTERNOON THE CAP WEAKENS IN THE MODELS...BUT THIS MAY BE THE RESULT            
OF THE CONVECTIVE SCHEMES GETTING INITIATED.  GFS AND NAM HAVE A                
SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING...AND THE                 
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE MAY BE STRENGTHENING THE INVERSION.            
DECIDED NOT TO MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO THE POP GRIDS AT THIS                      
TIME...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN                    
MOUNTAINS AND INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR.  CAP WOULD BE WEAKER IN THESE             
LOCATIONS...AND POOLING OF MOISTURE ALONG THE MOUNTAINS WILL TEND TO            
INCREASE INSTABILITY.  MODEL CAPE FIELDS SUGGEST A SIMILAR PATTERN              
FOR CONVECTION. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...NORTHWEST FLOW                 
AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL TEND TO DRY OUT THE                       
ATMOSPHERE. KEPT 10 POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR               
A FEW MOSTLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS.                                                 
.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS RIDGE TO THE WEST STRENGTHENS...FLOW ALOFT              
WILL BECOME NORTH NORTHERLY.  LOWER LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY DRY WITH              
DECREASED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THE PLAINS.  WITH WEAK HIGH              
PRESSURE STAYING TO THE EAST...DID NOT WANT TO REMOVE POPS                      
ENTIRELY.  SUSPECT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN WEAK              
UPSLOPE FLOW TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE GREATEST                 
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.  IN THE REMAINING            
AREAS...GFS AND EC CONTINUES TO HAVE A WEAK MONSOON LIKE PLUME OF               
MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO WESTERN COLORADO.  WILL KEEP SOME ISOLATED              
POPS FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.                                      
.TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION...WITH                 
ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR GFS SUGGESTING WEAK LEE TROUGH NEAR THE KANSAS               
BORDER.  EC AND GFS HAVE A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING NORTH            
FROM MEXICO.  IT LOOKS LIKE SUMMER...AND HAVE A BROAD BRUSH SUMMER              
FORECAST OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH BEST CHANCES               
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  MOISTURE IN MONSOON PLUMES TYPICALLY ARE MODEST            
THIS TIME OF YEAR AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION               
FROM CONVECTION. --PGW--                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
PER SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...FOR ALL FORECAST TAF...ISOLATED SHOWERS             
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL                
LEAD TO VARIABLE WIND DIRECTION AND SPEEDS OF 20-30KTS WITH GUSTS UP            
TO 45KTS AT TIMES. METZE                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
17/06                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
323 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2008                                                      
.NEAR TERM...                                                                   
MAIN CONCERN IN NEAR TERM IS WITH TSTMS. MCV MOVG ACROSS NW INDIANA             
THIS AFTN. LAPS SFC BASED CAPES UP TO 4KJ/KG AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE.             
SFC TROF ALSO EVIDENT FM ERN MI SW TO WEST CENTRAL INDIANA. SCT                 
TSTMS HAVE BEEN FORMING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THIS AFTN. WITH WK SHEAR            
AND VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...STORMS WILL BE MARGINALLY                 
SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS... VERY HEAVY RAIN.... AND SOME HAIL.                   
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO PERSIST INTO THE EVE ALONG SFC TROF AND                 
SUBSEQUENT TSTM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SO HAVE CONTD WITH SCT POPS                  
THROUGH 00Z SE WITH A CHC NW. FOR THE EVE HOURS INHERITED LIKELY                
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. GFS WITH SUPPORT FROM RUC13                  
INDICATING AN AT LEAST PARTIALLY CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SHRTWV WILL              
MOVE EAST FROM NW IA THIS AFTN TO ERN WI/NE IL BY 06Z. CURRENTLY                
MESO-BETA ELEMENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WERE MOVG SSE HWVR              
SOME CONVECTION ALSO PUSHING EAST ACROSS NRN IA. CAN`T RULE OUT                 
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DVLPG AHEAD OF THIS SHRTWV AND MOVG                  
INTO OUR AREA BY LATE EVE BUT GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS WITH CONVECTION              
UPSTREAM HAVE LOWERED POPS TO CHC ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF CWA IN                 
THE 00Z-06Z TIMEFRAME.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT... MAIN CONCERN IS THE                
SVR WEATHER POTENTIAL FRI INTO FRI NIGHT IN ACTIVE PATTERN AS                   
POTENT UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST FRI              
INTO FRI NIGHT.                                                                 
LATE TONIGHT/FRI MORNING...LEFT IN CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS                  
AS FA MAY BE IMPACTED BY CONVECTION/MCS CURRENTLY BACK IN IA WITH               
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED IN THE IA/SRN WI/NW IL VICINITY                    
TONIGHT. 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH MESOSCALE DETAILS WITH            
THE GFS HAVING CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES AND THE 12Z NAM                       
INITIALIZING POORLY WITH QPF. HOWEVER...AM CONFIDENT THAT AN                    
ADDITIONAL MCS WILL DEVELOP OUT TO THE W WITH INCREASING LL CONV                
AHEAD OF POTENT UPPER TROUGH ALONG THETA-E/MOISTURE GRADIENT. WOULD             
THINK THAT THIS WOULD TRACK EASTWARD FOLLOWING PROGGED CORFIDI                  
VECTORS/7H FLOW. ALSO WOULD EXPECT THE MCS TO TRACK NEAR/JUST SOUTH             
OF STRONG INSTABILITY/THETA-E BOUNDARY FROM LOWER MICHIGAN WNW                  
TOWARD THE IL/WI BORDER. WITH THIS SAID...THINK THIS FEATURE WILL               
WEAKEN AS IT OUTRUNS BETTER FORCING WITH TRACK/SPEED IN QUESTION DUE            
TO LACK OF ANY GOOD MODEL GUIDANCE. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP WITH CHC            
POPS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME DUE TO CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY.                        
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF MCS RENMANTS IT ONCE               
AGAIN LOOKS LIKE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE AS                    
STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS            
WILL YIELD MLCAPES AOA 2500 J/KG. NO OBVIOUS TRIGGER FOR                        
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH TIGHT THETA-E GRADIENT/DIFFUSE SFC                
TROUGH RETREATING OFF TO THE NORTH IN REPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS                   
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL US. IF INSTABILITY IS REALIZED THINK IT                
WILL BE ENOUGH TO BREAK WEAK CAP NEAR 12KFT FOR SCT                             
SHOWERS/STORMS...ESPECIALLY WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AROUND. DEEP                
LAYER SHEAR NEEDED FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS/SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY STAY            
OFF TO THE WEST...HOWEVER...HAIL/MICROBURST MULTICELLS A DISTINT                
POSSIBLITY WITH IMPRESSIVE CAPE...STEEP LL LAPSE RATES...AND                    
SOMEWHAT DRY MID-LEVELS.                                                        
FRIDAY NIGHT...MORE ORGANIZED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD INITIATE             
FRI AFTN ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM NEAR MCI             
NE THRU DSM AND GRB. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY START OUT AS DISCRETE            
SUPERCELLS AND THEN ORGANIZE INTO A COLD POOL DRIVEN SQUALL                     
LINE/LEWP...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST FRI                 
NIGHT. SVR WX A CONCERN WITH THIS AS IT MOVES THROUGH. DO NOT EXPECT            
THIS TO FALL APART AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING DUE TO LARGE SCALE                
FORCING WITH DIFF PVA/HEIGHT FALLS...DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IN RIGHT              
ENTRANCE REGION OF 100KT JET ROUNDING BASE OF TROUGH...AND LL CONV              
ALONG SFC TROUGH/OUTFLOW. CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS FOR FRIDAY                 
NIGHT AND INCLUDED A SEVERE MENTION IN THE GRIDS. HEAVY RAIN                    
DEFINITELY POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PWATS INCREASING              
TO NEAR 2 INCHES AND A DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER NEAR 10KFT.                        
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
LITTLE CHANGE TO LONG TERM WITH OVERALL PACKAGE IN GOOD SHAPE.                  
UNSETTLED WEATHER ON TAP FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH FRONTAL                    
PASSAGE AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE.        
MODELS ARE FAIRLY USELESS ON DETAILS FOR SATURDAY WITH THE NEAR TERM            
SO MUDDLED THAT INITIALIZATION ISSUES ABOUND.  BUT THE LARGER                   
DETAILS ARE STILL CONSISTENT SHOWING UPPER LOW SETTLING OVER GREAT              
LAKES AND ASSOC SFC FRONT ROLLING THROUGH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.                
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOWN BY BUFR SOUNDINGS TO BE WELL ESTABLISHED             
AHEAD OF THE BNDRY. WHILE ACTIVITY COULD FIRE EARLY ALONG PRE                   
FRONTAL TROF INDICATED BY NAM IT WILL LIKELY TURN OUT...AS HAS BEEN             
THE CASE IN RECENT DAYS...THAT DETAILS OF THE AFTERNOON EVOLUTION               
WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON FEATURES REMAINING FROM FRIDAY NIGHTS              
ACTIVITY TO THE WEST.                                                           
COLD POOL THEN SETTLES IN WITH MODELS POORLY HANDLING STRENGTH AND              
LOCATION FROM RUN TO RUN WITH LARGE TIMING DIFFERENCES ON H5                    
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND LOW.  KEPT AFTERNOON POPS INTACT AND DID              
NOT ADD ANYTHING IN MORNING HOURS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.                        
DEEP LOW OVER EASTERN NA LIFTS WITH BROADER TROFING IN ITS WAKE                 
KEEPING AREA UNDER UPPER NW FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK.                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 131 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2008/                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN                      
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE SHOULD NOT IMPACT KSBN                     
UNTIL MID AFTERNOON BUT WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARDS KFWA. MORE                 
DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM OVER IOWA WILL PROPAGATE TOWARDS THE REGION                
WITH POTENTIAL AFFECTS ON TERMINALS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.              
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL                                                         
LONG TERM...LUDINGTON                                                           
AVIATION...LUDINGTON                                                            
NEAR TERM...TAYLOR                                                              
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
113 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS [RSL/SLN/HUT/ICT/CNU]                                      
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE VALID PERIOD. LEE TROF WILL                  
LEAD TO SRLY WIND GUSTS (25-30KT) THIS PM IN CNTRL/S-CNTRL KS.                  
WINDS WILL BECOME W-SWRLY TOWARD END OF VALID PERIOD JUST AHEAD OF              
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.                                                         
JMC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
FORECAST CONCERNS...CONVECTIVE CHANCES/TRENDS AND SEVERE POTENTIAL              
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.                                          
ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES IN SENSIBLE WEATHER EXPECTED FOR TODAY...SO                 
WILL FOLLOW A MODIFIED PERSISTENCE APPROACH TO THE FORECAST AND                 
MOST GRID ELEMENTS TODAY. A BIT MORE OF A CAP EARLY THIS MORNING                
BASED ON RUC MODEL...SO HOPEFULLY WILL NOT SEE ANOTHER SUNRISE                  
SURPRISE TOWARD DAWN...ISOLATED AS IT WAS YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE                  
EXPECT A COUPLE LOCALES TO APPROACH/TOUCH THE CENTURY MARK ACROSS               
CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE MAXS IN THE LOW/MID 90S                  
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...IT WILL FEEL CLOSE TO 100 WITH COMBO                 
OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY.                                                           
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS NORTHWEST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING MAY                 
CLIP NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...SO WILL                   
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE IN FOR THOSE AREAS. HOWEVER...MAIN FOCUS FOR               
MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL COME LATER FRIDAY INTO EARLY                     
SATURDAY MORNING...AS A STRONG SUMMER-TIME UPPER TROF AND THE                   
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS                  
TROF WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH A REINFORCING SHOT                 
OF COOLISH/DRIER AIR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE FRONT ON                   
FRIDAY EVENING LOOKS TO ENCOUNTER A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS                
EASTERN KANSAS...AND CONFIDENCE CONTINUES BUILD ON A SEVERE                     
CONVECTIVE EPISODE...SO HAVE UPPED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY                
FOR AREAS EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE FRIDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME                  
QUESTION AS TO THE TIMING/SOUTHWARD MOVE OF THE FRONT...WITH THE                
NAM MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN OTHER MODELS. THIS MAY HAVE MORE OF AN                
IMPACT ON MAXS FOR CENTRAL KANSAS ON FRIDAY...AND FOR NOW WILL                  
STILL KEEP THINGS QUITE TOASTY...HOWEVER AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL                 
LOOK TO BE THE HOTTEST...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WEST AND SOUTHWEST                
OF GREATER WICHITA WHERE PERHAPS A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SOME                
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING EFFECTS WILL ENHANCE MAX POTENTIAL LATE IN                
THE AFTERNOON.                                                                  
OTHERWISE...HAVE TEMPERED MAXS FOR THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY FOR                 
SUNDAY...WITH MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTING RELATIVELY COOLER AIR                  
WILL HOLD SWAY THRU THE WEEKEND NOW.                                            
DARMOFAL                                                                        
AVIATION...                                                                     
06Z TAFS...ICT/SLN/HUT/CNU/RSL...VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED OVER                
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STRENGTHENING AND VEERING LOW-LEVEL JET TONIGHT              
MAY INITIATE A STRAY THUNDERSTORM SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL AND                  
SOUTHEAST KANSAS TONIGHT...BUT PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW AND                    
COVERAGE TOO SPARSE TO MENTION VCTS IN THE TAFS.                                
OTHERWISE...STOUT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL COMMENCE BY MID-MORNING                  
THURSDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH                  
PLAINS...AND A COLD FRONT GETS ITS ACT TOGETHER NORTHWEST OF THE                
AREA.                                                                           
KLEINSASSER                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    95  73  97  71 /  10  10  20  50                                
HUTCHINSON      96  72  98  69 /  10  10  30  50                                
NEWTON          95  73  97  70 /  10  10  30  50                                
ELDORADO        94  73  95  71 /  10  10  20  60                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   94  73  96  72 /  10  10  20  60                                
RUSSELL        100  71  95  66 /  10  20  40  20                                
GREAT BEND      99  71  97  67 /  10  10  40  30                                
SALINA          99  73  97  68 /  10  20  40  40                                
MCPHERSON       97  73  97  69 /  10  10  40  40                                
COFFEYVILLE     92  72  93  72 /  10  10  20  60                                
CHANUTE         92  72  93  72 /  10  20  20  60                                
IOLA            92  72  93  72 /  10  20  20  60                                
PARSONS-KPPF    92  72  93  72 /  10  10  20  60                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
227 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TODAY/                                               
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE UPDATE THIS MORNING WILL DEAL WITH THE THREAT            
FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN CHANGE TO POPS WAS TO ADD A FEW           
MORE COUNTIES A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH IN THE CHANCE POP RANGE. CURRENT           
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC 13 SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR AN APPROACHING WEAK           
SHORT WAVE TO INFLUENCE COUNTIES MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64. THE             
FEELING IS THAT SCATTERED COVERAGE WOULD REPRESENT THE AREA                     
INFLUENCED BY THE WAVE AND ISOLATED COVERAGE WOULD REPRESENT THE                
AREAS FURTHER SOUTH WHO NEED TO REACH THEIR CONVECTIVE TEMPS. LAPS              
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WEAK WIND PROFILE THROUGH THE ENTIRE              
COLUMN...SO ANY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE VERY HARD TO COME              
BY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ORGANIZATION WOULD BE IN THE NORTH WHERE            
BETTER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK SHORTWAVE.           
CURRENT SURFACE OBS SHOW 14Z TEMPERATURES WELL ON THEIR WAY TO THE              
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. DID NOT CHANGE MUCH IN THE WAY OF               
TEMPERATURES...ONLY MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.            
EXPECT MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY...SETTING UP THE                  
APPROACHING WEEKEND SYSTEM. UPDATED ZFP OUT SHORTLY.                            
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                          
/TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/                                                    
MOISTURE RETURN WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY           
AS UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. FLOW            
PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL...LEAVING US OPEN TO MORE                 
EMBEDDED WEAK SHORT WAVES. HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED POPS FOR ALL                
TODAY WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES LIKELY BEING REACHED FOR SOME.               
BETTER CHANCE WILL EXIST IN THE BLUEGRASS COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE                
TRAIN OF TRAVERSING WEAK DISTURBANCES ALONG WITH AMPLE MOISTURE                 
RETURN...SO HAVE GONE WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON.               
STUCK CLOSER TO THE NAM MOS FOR HIGHS AT JKL...WHILE USING THE GFS              
MOS FOR LOZ AND SME.                                                            
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL RE-FIRE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY                  
EVENING AS WE BECOME MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF TROUGHING TAKING               
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH ADDITIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES              
MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA. INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGHS A BIT            
COOLER ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL KEEP THE           
AIR MASS VERY MUGGY. USED A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND THE LATEST                 
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.                    
.LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/                                       
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL DEAL THE                  
APPROACH AND ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UNSEASONABLY            
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHWEST. HAVE DECIDED TO BLEND                  
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS AS SLOWER AND MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK              
SEEMS TO BE THE WAY TO GO. THE LATEST HPC DISCUSSIONS SEEMS TO AGREE            
WITH THIS DECISION AS WELL. AS A RESULT...HAVE SLOWED THE SYSTEM                
DOWN WHICH WILL GIVE US PRETTY GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN...POSSIBLY                 
HEAVY AT TIMES...STARTING SATURDAY AND ENDING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.                 
AN INTERESTING SETUP WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST               
COAST SHOULD PROVIDE PLENTY OF MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM              
ON SATURDAY. UPLIFT FROM MULTIPLE WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE HIGHLY                  
AMPLIFIED H5 TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUING CHANCES OF                        
PRECIPITATION. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED POPS TO GOOD CHANCE AND                  
LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE EVENT. LATEST GUIDANCE VALUES ALSO CAME IN               
WITH HIGHER POPS ADDING CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST.                             
BASED ON NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SOME CONCERN IS STARTING TO               
GROW WITH REGARD TO HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON             
AND NIGHT. VERY MOIST/TROPICAL LIKE SOUNDINGS SHOW TALL SKINNY CAPE             
PROFILES AND PWAT VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES ON SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST TO              
NORTHEAST LINEAR FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND FAIRLY SLOW              
STORM MOTIONS PARALLEL TO THIS COULD RESULT IN TRAINING OF VERY                 
EFFICIENT THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION CLOSELY            
AND KEEP THE NAM MOISTURE BIAS IN MIND. HAVE DECIDED TO MENTION THE             
POSSIBILITY OF THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE HWO.                
THE COLD FRONT FINALLY MOVES THROUGH SOMETIME ON SUNDAY WITH POPS               
ENDING LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT THE REST OF THE EXTENDED DRY            
FOR NOW...HOWEVER LINGERING MOISTURE AND ANY WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE              
RETREATING H5 TROUGH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME VERY ISOLATED COVERAGE. TOO           
MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT THIS POINT TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.            
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES. ONLY MADE A              
FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE VALUES.                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/...UPDATED                                              
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA AND EXPECT THESE            
TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING BUT SHOULD NOT INCREASE COVERAGE MUCH.           
WILL UPDATE TAFS THIS AFTERNOON ONLY IF A CLUSTER OF STORMS                     
APPROACHES. BELIEVE VCTS WILL SUFFICE. OTHERWISE THINK THERE IS                 
ENOUGH RIDGE REMAINING ONCE THE HEATING IS LOST TO KEEP THUNDER                 
FROM APPROACHING WITH THE SHORTWAVE FROM IL LATE TONIGHT.                       
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN/SCHOETTMER                                               
LONG TERM....SCHOETTMER                                                         
AVIATION...GV                                                                   
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
215 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2008                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAFS                                           
.UPDATE...                                                                      
DUE TO LAST NIGHTS RAIN/LIGHT WINDS/50S DEWPOINTS...WIDESPREAD FOG              
DEVELOPED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTHERN UPR MI              
LATE LAST NIGHT. NW/N WINDS OVR LK SUPERIOR AND IN AREAS EAST OF                
KEWEENAW PENINSULA TO WHITEFISH POINT WILL KEEP SOME FOG AND LOW                
CLOUDS INTO EARLY AFTN...AT LEAST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORE. FOG                
OVR KEWEENAW IS ALREADY LIFTING...DUE TO WEAK ADVECTION OF DRY AIR              
HANGING OUT OVR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. ONSHORE FLOW/CLOUDS/FOG                  
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S TO UPR 60S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR                 
SHORE EAST OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. MAINLY SUNNY SKIES INLAND AND             
STILL WARM H85/H8 TEMPS LEAD TO MAX TEMPS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S            
OVR SCNTRL SECTIONS AWAY FM BAY OF GREEN BAY. MODIFIED GRB SOUNDING             
FOR T/TD OF 85/63 AND THAT DID GIVE SBCAPE AOA 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER               
...DRY MID LEVEL AIR IS EVIDENT AS IS SOME CAPPING AROUND 750MB AND             
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ANY SHOWERS IS NIL. ABOUT THE ONLY TRIGGER              
WOULD BE LAKE BREEZE FRONT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT THAT WOULD APPEAR            
TO BE PRETTY SHALLOW AND NOT SUFFICIENT TO KICK OFF ANY CONVECTION.             
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION (530 AM EDT)...                                                     
MAIN CONCERNS FOCUS ON TIMING OF CONVECTION ON FRIDAY AND POSSIBLE              
SVR STORMS...THEN LINGERING SHRA/TSRA INTO THE WEEKEND.                         
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW ZONAL FLOW ACROSS            
THE NRN CONUS. SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR LAST NIGHT`S CONVECTION HAS            
MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. IR SATELLITE NOW SHOWS CLEARING SKIES FROM              
THE WEST AS MID LVL RDGG AND SUBSIDENCE NOSE INTO THE AREA.                     
HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH (UPR 50S TO LOW 60S) AND FOG             
LINGERS OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING AND OVER THE              
SHORELINE AREAS.                                                                
TODAY...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE TO                 
LIFT AFTER SUNRISE WITH SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING UNDER MID-LVL RIDGING            
AND SUBSIDENCE. 800 MB TEMPS NEAR 12C MIXING TO THE SFC SHOULD YIELD            
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S OVER THE WRN INTERIOR. LAKE BREEZES                      
DEVELOPING WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER (LOWER 70S) NEAR THE GREAT LAKES              
AND OVER THE ERN FCST AREA.                                                     
TONIGHT...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF              
THE SFC HIGH ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN WAA MID-HIGH               
LVL CLOUDS FROM THE SW LATE AHEAD OF NEXT INCOMING SHORTWAVE. EXPECT            
LOWS TO GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS               
EAST WHERE SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR MOST OF THE NIGHT.                             
FRIDAY...GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE NAM/UKMET/ECMWF AND SREF             
MODELS AS THE GFS AND EVEN THE GLOBAL GEM LOOK TO BE AFFECTED BY                
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. ALL THESE MODELS BRING THE LEAD SHORTWAVE INTO             
THE AREA ON FRI AHEAD OF AN UPR TROF/CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE             
NRN PLAINS. 305K ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOC WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL               
SUPPORT THE INITIAL BATCH OF CONVECTION SPREADING SW TO NE ACROSS               
THE FCST AREA...MAINLY LATE FRI. BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS                
WEST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS SINCE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER                    
AGREEMENT ON TIMING/COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA. STRONG MOISTURE INFLOW               
WITH PWAT INCREASING TO AOA 1.5 INCHES COULD SUPPORT HEAVY DOWNPOURS            
WITH THE SHOWERS. MUCAPE VALUES INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE AND               
0-6KM BULK SHEAR INTO THE 30-40 KT RANGE WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT              
SOME STRONGER STORMS. HOWEVER...HIGH FREEZING LEVELS (13-14 KFT)                
SHOULD  LIMIT LARGE HAIL THREAT. SPC STILL HAS THE ENTIRE U.P IN A              
SLIGHT RISK OF SVR FOR THE DAY2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.                             
FRI NIGHT...AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW SINKS SLOWLY ESE TOWARD THE              
UPPER GREAT LAKES...A DRY SLOT WILL SPREAD THROUGH THE AREA REDUCING            
PCPN CHANCES. FOLLOWED THE PREFERRED SLOWER TIMING OF THE ECMWF AND             
SREF WITH THIS FEATURE SO KEPT IN SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WITH THE HIGHEST            
POPS OVER THE EASTERN FCST AREA.                                                
SAT INTO SUN...FOLLOWED THE NCEP PREFERRED GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLN               
WITH MVMT OF THE UPR LOW WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE OPERATIONAL 00Z                
ECMWF RUN. FCST 500 MB TEMPS OF -17C/-18C WITH STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL              
LAPSE RATES AND FORCING FROM SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL            
SUPPORT SCT SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY SUN...WITH NRLY LOW                
LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING...MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY              
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE WILL BE CONTINUED CHCS FOR LIGHT RAIN OR             
SHOWERS BUT TSTM SHOULD CHANCES SHOULD BE DWINDLING.                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
W WINDS BRINGING IN STABLE AIR/CLEAR SKIES AT CMX SHOULD LAST INTO              
THIS EVENING. LOW PROBABILITY OF FOG THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THERE IS              
SOME WIND AND BKN MID-HIGH CLOUDS. ON FRI MORNING AT CMX...SE/E                 
WINDS DEVELOP AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO CNTRL MN. WIND DIRECTION               
AND FOG OUT OVR LAKE SUPERIOR MAY RESULT IN FOG OR LOW STRATUS                  
RETURNING TO THE AIRPORT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT SAW THROUGH                
THIS EVENING...THEN SINCE THERE IS STILL LINGERING LOW LEVEL                    
MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINS...MAY SEE RADIATION FOG LATE TONIGHT AT              
SAW. ENOUGH WIND JUST OFF SFC SHOULD KEEP VSBY FM FALLING TOO MUCH.             
SCT-BKN CU/SC EXPECTED ON FRI AT SAW AS WARMER AIR ALOFT LIFTS                  
TOWARD UPPER MICHIGAN. ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOLD OFF              
TIL LATE FRI AFTN.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING             
WINDS WILL LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL                 
MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND INTO LAKE SUPERIOR ON                 
FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL               
TIGHTEN FOLLOWING THE LOW CAUSING WIND TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS            
FOR A PERIOD OVER CENTRAL AND EAST EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. BY                    
SUNDAY...THE LOW FILLING SLIGHTLY AND SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER LOWER            
MICHIGAN BY SUNDAY MORNING WILL CAUSE THE WINDS TO LESS AN 20 KNOTS             
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.                                                
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...JLA                                                                    
DISCUSSION...VOSS                                                               
AVIATION...JLA                                                                  
MARINE...KF                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY                                             
330 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND                        
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A PASSING HIGH                  
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING US RAIN FREE CONDITIONS TO MOST OF              
THE AREA FRIDAY. THE WEEKEND WILL THEN BECOME UNSETTLED AS A                    
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL RESULT IN                     
FREQUENT BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.                                    
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                                  
CLOUDS LEFT OVER FROM THIS MORNING`S SHOWERS HAS KEPT THE AIR OVER              
NEW YORK STATE RELATIVELY STABLE COMPARED TO AREAS OVER THE CENTRAL             
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS HAS PRECLUDED THE DEVELOPMENT OF              
ANY CONVECTION ACROSS OUR CWA...SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS               
HAVE THINNED OUT NICELY ACROSS THE NIAGARA PENINSULA...BUT ANY                  
CONVECTION THAT FIRES UP ACROSS THIS AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL             
HAVE TO FIGHT THE STABILIZING LAKE ERIE BREEZE. THEREFORE...DO NOT              
EXPECT ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE NIAGARA                
FRONTIER THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.                                             
WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE GENESEE VALLEY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF               
CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THIS AREA               
WILL STILL WARM UP A FEW MORE DEGREES AS THE CLOUDS THIN OUT UNDER              
THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRENGTHENING LAKE ERIE BREEZE. THE RUC                    
SUGGESTS THAT CAPES MAY INCREASE A LITTLE ABOVE 1000 J/KG WITH LI`S             
LOWERING TO ABOUT -5. IF TEMPERATURES WARM UP A LITTLE MORE ACROSS              
THE SOUTHERN TIER...A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE                 
ACROSS THIS AREA AS WELL.                                                       
OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE MIDWEST COLD FRONT THAT IS HELPING              
TO GENERATE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM LOWER LAKE HURON TO CENTRAL               
INDIANA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY             
TO THE EAST AND DROP SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT BEFORE                   
STALLING OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE ON FRIDAY. WILL LEAVE             
IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT AS THE FRONT               
INTERACTS WITH THE MOIST AIR AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR THAT WILL                
STILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.                                              
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE SOMEWHAT MORE CAPPED ON FRIDAY...BUT WILL                
LEAVE IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN              
TIER AND UPPER GENESEE VALLEY WHERE THE WARM UNSTABLE AIR WILL                  
INTERACT WITH THE STALLED FRONT. IF THE FRONT STALLS FARTHER TO THE             
NORTH...WE MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS               
FOR MOST OF THE CWA.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                    
THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT                 
AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL                 
SETTLE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW                 
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL ADVECT INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER                 
MOISTURE ACROSS OUR REGION...AND WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED               
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.                                                      
ON SATURDAY...THE CUTOFF SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE UPPER                 
GREAT LAKES WHILE ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE                
OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS OUR FORECAST AREA. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT            
AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BRING A GOOD LIKELIHOOD OF CONVECTION            
DURING THIS TIME. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARING 2 INCHES WILL               
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE WILL ALSO BE            
A RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WIND FIELDS                  
ALOFT.                                                                          
MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA               
SATURDAY NIGHT CONTINUING THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONVECTION. BEHIND THE              
FRONT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BREAK IN THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...               
BUT WE SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY REDEVELOP SUNDAY AS THE COLD UPPER AIR               
LOW WORKS ACROSS THE AREA.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                   
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD LOOKS TO BEGIN RATHER UNSETTLED AS A BROAD              
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS CLOSED 500 MB CIRCULATION/COLD POOL ALOFT            
WORKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE WILL BE GOOD CHANCES FOR            
CONVECTION THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE UPPER              
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE DOWNSTREAM WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING              
IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES/TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS PERIOD                   
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.               
TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK TO BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL              
BUT SHOULD BE WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY THURSDAY.                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                     
CLOUDS LINGERING BEHIND THIS MORNING`S RAIN HAS KEPT THE AIR OVER               
NEW YORK STATE RELATIVELY STABLE...PRECLUDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY            
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE LEFT OVER MOISTURE IS GENERATING BKN DECKS            
WITH CIGS RANGING FROM MVFR TO VFR. THE VISIBLE IMAGE DOES SHOW THE             
CLOUDS THINNING OUT ACROSS THE NIAGARA PENINSULA...HOWEVER.                     
THEREFORE...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AREA FOR THE POTENTIAL             
OF ANY CONVECTION WHICH MAY ADVECT EAST INTO THE VCNTY OF KIAG LATER            
IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME CONVECTION IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE                   
SOUTHER TIER LATE THIS AFTERNOON.                                               
OTHERWISE...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF A COLD FRONT THAT              
STRETCHES FROM GEORGIAN BAY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS BOUNDARY IS             
FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND CROSS LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT              
BEFORE STALLING OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY. A FEW SHOWERS OR                  
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE FRONT                  
APPROACHES. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR AS THE               
SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL TOWARD THEIR DEWPOINTS.                               
THE WEAKENING FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER SOUTHERN NEW YORK                 
STATE FRIDAY. WITH MOIST AIR STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA                     
DAYTIME HEATING WILL MAY STILL GENERATE A FEW -TSRA ALONG THE                   
FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION FRIDAY               
AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND UPPER GENESEE                    
VALLEY. EXPECT MVFR (IFR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER) CONDITIONS                   
FRIDAY MORNING TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR LATE FRIDAY MORNING                  
INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.                                                          
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
SATURDAY...VFR. CHC SHWRS.                                                      
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR. CHC TSTMS.                                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
WHILE THERE WILL BE THE RISK OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER                    
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO TONIGHT...NO WIND BASED MARINE HEADLINES                 
WILL BE NECESSARY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.                                      
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL PASS BY TO THE               
NORTH OF THE LAKES THIS EVENING...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH                        
SOUTHWESTERLIES BEING PRODUCED OVER LAKE ERIE AS A RESULT.                      
MEANWHILE...GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES WILL BE FOUND ON LAKE                    
ONTARIO. A RIDGE WILL THEN CROSS THE EASTERN LAKES TONIGHT AND                  
FRIDAY...WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES PREDOMINATING.                            
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED ACROSS BOTH LAKES FOR THE                
WEEKEND AS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE.              
&&                                                                              
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NY...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...TMA                                                                  
NEAR TERM...TJP                                                                 
SHORT TERM...TMA                                                                
LONG TERM...TMA                                                                 
AVIATION...TJP                                                                  
MARINE...TMA                                                                    
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
321 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2008                                                      
FORECAST FOCUS ON SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES FOR FRIDAY.                            
NEAR-TERM...TONIGHT. DEALING WITH MAINLY CI BLOW OFF AT THE MOMENT.             
COMPLEX ACRS IA INTO MO SAPPING UP THE MOIST/INFLOW/INSTAB.                     
ISODROSOTHERM ANALYSIS SHOWS A LITTLE BUBBLE OF DRIER AIR HAS                   
WORKED INTO SRN WI WITH THE REAL GOOD JUICE OFF TO THE WEST.                    
THINKING IS THAT REDEVELOPMENT WILL TAKE PLACE LATER TNGT TO OUR                
WEST WITH CHANCES INCREASING ACRS THE CWA LATER TNGT. FOR NOW WILL              
LEAN TOWARDS THE QPF TRENDS OF THE NAM/RUC AND NGM WHICH KEEPS US               
LARGELY RAIN FREE THRU 6Z.                                                      
.SHORT TERM...KEY TO FRIDAY SEVERE TIMING AND PLACEMENT WILL BE                 
DEPENDENT ON OVERNIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION CONVECTION AND                        
RESULTANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. WILL LEAN TOWARD NAM FOR DETAILS AS               
SPURIOUS 500MB CONVECTIVE VORTICITY MAXIMA ON GFS AFFECTING LAYERS              
BELOW...MAKING IT AN OUTLIER. CWA IN FAVORED REGION TO THE LEFT OF              
STRONGEST 850 MB WINDS BETWEEN 18Z-00Z SAT. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY              
WITH ML CAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG...EVEN AFTER LOWERING SOMEWHAT                  
GENEROUS SFC DEW POINTS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25 TO 30 KTS ENOUGH                
TO ORGANIZE STORMS. WILL LEAVE LIKELY WORDING FOR NOW...BUT ALL OF              
THE CWA SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FRIDAY                    
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.                                                          
AS FOR RAIN FROM THE STORMS IMPACTING SATURATED SOILS AND SWOLLEN               
RIVERS...PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE TO 1.54 INCHES...BUT MESO-                
BETA ELEMENTS MOVING AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS DURING MOST FAVORED TIME.                
WILL RE-ISSUE ESF FOR NOW AS IT WILL TAKE ONLY 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF               
RAIN IN AN HOUR OR LESS TO CAUSE SOME STREET FLOODING PROBLEMS BUT              
NOT ENOUGH CLARITY TO TARGET ANY GIVEN AREA FOR A WATCH AT THIS TIME.           
UPPER LOW SETTLES IN OVER REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. SIMILAR TO LAST               
WEEK...500 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -15C TO -18C RANGE WILL LEAD TO               
STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON         
AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.            
POSSIBILITY AGAIN FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WITH INVERTED V                
SOUNDINGS.                                                                      
MONDAY...TIMING OF UPPER LOW EXITING WESTERN GREAT                              
LAKES WILL BE KEY TO EARLY NEXT WEEK FORECAST. OPERATIONAL                      
FORECASTS ALL TAKE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL TO AROUND                 
THE STRAITS OF MACKINAW BY 00Z MONDAY...AND OVER...OR NORTH OF...               
LAKE HURON BY 12Z MONDAY. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT              
AND HAVE DRY WITH RIDGING BUILDING INTO REGION FOR MONDAY INTO                  
WEDNESDAY.                                                                      
.LONG TERM...QUIET WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH              
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NORTHERLY SFC WIND TURNS NE ALONG THE                 
LAKE...SO EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS THEN FALLING TEMPS MONDAY. WEAK                 
GRADIENT TUESDAY BRINGS SIMILAR TEMP SCENARIO. NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCE        
COMES WED AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME SETTING              
UP AHEAD OF NEXT 500MB TROF. ML CAPES REACH 1000-1500 J/KG IN NW                
HALF OF ON FAVORED ECMWF BY 00Z SO WILL BRING CHANCES THERE IN THE              
AFTERNOON...AND CWA-WIDE WED NIGHT. SLOW MOVEMENT OF SFC TROF THRU              
REGION BRINGS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS                  
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH PERIOD AS ANY FORCING MECHANISMS FOR                    
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN VERY SUBTLE UNDER WEAK FLOW.  LLJ REMAINS                  
PARKED UPSTREAM OF THE CWA AND EXPECT REGENERATING THUNDERSTORMS TO             
FIRE ACROSS NW IA/SW MN INTO TONIGHT. COULD SEE THOSE STORMS ROLL IN            
LATER TONIGHT...BUT THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO THAT EVOLUTION.            
HOWEVER WILL HINT AT SOME THUNDER IN THE TAFS LATER TNGT INTO FRI               
MORNING.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT/LONG TERM...09                                                            
AVIATION/MARINE...10                                                            
</pre> wi