AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
420 AM MDT THU APR 6 2006                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)                                                             
...A NUMBER OF CONCERNS THIS MORNING...INCLUDING SNOW IN THE                    
MOUNTAINS...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EASTERN SLOPES AND PLAINS...AND               
BLIZZARD POTENTIAL ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY STARTING LATE                 
TONIGHT...                                                                      
WILL ALLOW CURRENT SNOW/BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY TO RUN IT'S COURSE FOR            
THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...EXPIRING AT 6AM.  ACCORDING TO THE             
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS...MOUNTAIN TOP WINDS ARE SHIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST            
TO NORTHWEST AT THE PRESENT TIME.  ALTHOUGH SATELLITE PICTURES                  
INDICATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW MOVING INTO THE SAN JUANS AT THIS                
TIME...THE SHIFT IN WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THE HEAVY SNOW              
THREAT IN THIS AREA.  SO FAR...THE WOLF CREEK SNOTEL SHOWS A GAIN OF            
ABOUT 1.0 INCHES OF WATER IN THE SNOWPACK SINCE YESTERDAY MORNING.              
SNOW/BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS (SAWATCH AND               
MOSQUITO RANGES) STILL LOOKS GOOD.  MODEL PROJECTIONS INDICATE UP TO            
A FOOT OF SNOW THESE AREAS BY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE BULK FALLING            
THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.  SO AN ADVISORY THIS AREA                
UNTIL MIDNIGHT LOOKS GOOD.                                                      
THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES TO LOOK ON TRACK FOR THE EASTERN              
SLOPES AND PLAINS TODAY.  RHS MAY END UP ON THE MARGINAL SIDE                   
(BOTTOMING OUT RIGHT AROUND 15%) BUT THE WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY'LL                
MAKE IT OKAY.  ALSO...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE DRY LIGHTNING.            
SO...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN SLOPES AND            
PLAINS FROM 10AM TO 9PM TODAY.                                                  
THE POTENTIAL FOR A BLIZZARD TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO                 
COUNTY SOMETIME LATE TONIGHT STILL LOOKS INTERESTING.  BIG                      
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS SCENARIOS...HOWEVER...WITH THE              
NAM REALLY NAILING NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY WITH SNOW STARTING AROUND            
12Z AND THE GFS NOT BRINGING IN MUCH MOISTURE AT ALL.  BUT...THE NAM            
FOR MULTIPLE RUNS (EXCLUDING THE 18Z RUN FROM YESTERDAY) HAS SHOWN              
THIS SCENARIO.  THE GFS HAS CONSISTENTLY NOT SHOWN THIS SCENARIO.               
ONE OF THE NATIONAL MODEL DISCUSSIONS THIS MORNING HAS SUGGESTED                
THAT THE NAM MAY BE TOO SLOW WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW...AND              
THAT THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS IS BETTER.  BUT...THEN AGAIN...MAYBE              
THE NAM IS TARGETING THE PALMER DIVIDE BECAUSE IT KNOWS ABOUT THE               
TERRAIN BETTER.  ANYWAY...NOT THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH              
ALL THE UNCERTAINTY.  BUT...THE THREAT IS REAL ENOUGH TO CONTINUE               
WITH THE BLIZZARD WATCH UNTIL LATER RUNS RESOLVE THINGS (HOPEFULLY).            
ONE THINGS SEEMS CERTAIN...APPEARS THE WIND WILL START TO BLOW AND              
BLOW HARD BY EARLY FRIDAY.  SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW FOR              
MORE ON THAT. LW                                                                
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)                                                      
...POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR THE PALMER DIVIDE AND HIGH             
WINDS FOR THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS ON FRIDAY THE PRIMARY CONCERNS THIS              
PACKAGE...                                                                      
STILL SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES TO DEAL WITH IN THE 36-48 HOUR TIME              
RANGE AS STRONG VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS            
SHIFTS SOUTHWARD AS JET ENERGY WRAPS AROUND NRN/WRN PERIPHERY OF THE            
SYSTEM.  HOW FAR WEST THE UPPER LOW TRACKS ACROSS KS IS THE MAIN                
CONUNDRUM...WITH NAM12 THE FARTHEST WEST OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS.             
THUS...NAM12 BRINGS A HEALTHY MID LVL THETA-E RIDGE ACROSS EASTERN              
CO COUPLED WITH MID LVL QG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND EPVS SLIGHTLY            
BELOW ZERO.  THESE FACTORS POINT TO A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY               
PRECIPITATION BANDING UNDER TROWAL WHICH TRANSITIONS ACROSS EASTERN             
COLORADO FRI MORNING.  GFS ON THE OTHER HAND KEEPS THESE PARAMETERS             
A BIT FARTHER EAST AND NORTH. HAVE GONE WITH A NAM12/GFS MODEL                  
BLEND...GIVEN HPC/S ASSESSMENT THAN NAM12 MAY BE SUFFERING FROM                 
SOME CONVECTIVE FEED BACK. HOWEVER...NAM12 HAS ALSO BEEN CONSISTENT             
THE PAST COUPLE RUNS WITH THIS SCENARIO...SO ITS DIFFICULT TO                   
DISCOUNT COMPLETELY. MODEL SOUNDINGS OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE SHOW A              
BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE-HEAVY SNOW AS STRONG DIABATIC COOLING                  
COOLS THE VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILE. COMBINED WITH SUSTAINED                 
WINDS AROUND 35 KTS WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS                              
POSSIBLE...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE DURING THE                   
MORNING HOURS...SO WILL KEEP THE BLIZZARD WATCH GOING FOR NORTHERN              
EL PASO COUNTY. ANOTHER AREA THAT BEARS WATCHING WILL BE TELLER                 
COUNTY WITH SNOW AMOUNTS APPROACHING THE ADVISORY RANGE. ITS WORTH              
NOTING HOWEVER THAN GFS IS PORTRAYING SIGNIFICANTLY LESS SNOWFALL               
FOR THIS REGION...THUS CONFIDENCE STILL ISNT HIGH ENOUGH TO HOIST               
THE WARNINGS/ADVISORIES JUST YET. SOUNDINGS LOOK FAIRLY WARM FOR                
THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...WITH PCPN FALLING IN THE                
FORM OF RAIN FOR MOST AREAS...THOUGH COULD BE A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW                 
MIX FRI MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE                  
RATON RIDGE. HOWEVER...LOOKS TOO BRIEF TO WARRANT ANY HIGHLIGHTS                
FOR SNOW FOR THIS AREA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEAST                      
PLAINS...SFC GRADIENT QUITE STRONG DURING THE MORNING WITH BOTH                 
MET/MAV GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 35-40 KTS ACROSS                
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH LOOK DOABLE AS                  
WINDS AT H7 AROUND 50 KTS OR GREATER...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY                
HELP TO TRANSPORT HIGHER MOMENTUM ALOFT TO THE SFC. SO WILL HOIST               
A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS FOR FRIDAY WHICH BLENDS              
WELL WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. NOT TO BE LEFT OUT...THE WESTERN                 
MTS WILL SEE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WANING QUICKLY THROUGH THE                  
DAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE WEST.                                           
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY BY FRI NIGHT AS AN UPPER LVL RIDGE              
TRANSITIONS OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.  ANOTHER                 
WARMING TREND WILL SET IN FOR THE WEEKEND UNDER DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW.             
GFS BRINGS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ACROSS CO MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING            
SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE                 
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  A STRONGER SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT                  
ENTERS THE WEST COAST TUES NIGHT...AND MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AZ                  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN ACROSS CO NEXT THURSDAY.  CURRENT GRIDS KEEP             
POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE LONG RANGE...AND PLAN             
TO SPREAD THEM EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS FOR THE NEW DAY             
8.                                                                              
THANKS TO SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR COLLABORATION TONIGHT. -KT                    
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS                       
EVENING FOR COZ221-COZ222-COZ225-COZ226-COZ227-COZ228-COZ229-                   
COZ230-COZ231-COZ232-COZ233-COZ234-COZ235-COZ236-COZ237.                        
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR                
COZ085-COZ086-COZ089-COZ093-COZ094-COZ095-COZ096-COZ097-COZ098-                 
COZ099.                                                                         
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR                   
COZ058-COZ060.                                                                  
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING                
FOR COZ068.                                                                     
BLIZZARD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR                     
COZ084.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
50/31                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
816 PM CDT THU APR 6 2006                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAY BE SEEING A WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE WIND EVENT OVER SOUTH WESTERN             
AREAS GIVEN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HIGH DCAPES AND PLENTY OF               
0-6KM BULK SHEAR FOR LONG LIVED STORMS. CONVECTION NOW SPREADING                
EAST OF THE MO RIVER ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS FROM AROUND SIOUX CITY              
TO NEAR LAMONI. ALL MODES OF CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE                  
STORMS GET INTO WESTERN FORECAST AREA BUT MAIN LIMITATION WE'LL BE              
FIGHTING IS WEAKENING OF CAPE IN RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MOIST               
ADIABATIC PROFILES. UPDATE TO ALL OF PRODUCT SUITE INCLUDING FLOOD              
WATCH/TOMMORROWS WIND ADVISORY AND NEW TORNADO WATCH INTO EFFECT                
THROUGH 3 AM (08 UTC).                                                          
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 160 SOUTH ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30 AND                
WEST OF A JEFFERSON TO WINTERSET TO LAMONI LINE.                                
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 TONIGHT THROUGH             
FRIDAY MORNING.                                                                 
WIND ADVISORY OVER ENTIRE CWA FROM 09Z-24Z/07                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RUSSELL                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   ia                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
1101 AM CDT THU APR 6 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
LATEST MESO TRENDS SUPPORT 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE...IN DELAYING THE                 
DRY LINE FRONT PASSAGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON                  
AND EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL SHIFT RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE                  
WEATHER A BIT FURTHER WEST...TO INCLUDE THE GREATER WICHITA                     
AREA. RUC DATA SUGGESTS CAP WILL ERODE/BREAK VERY QUICKLY FOR                   
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION BY 18Z ALONG THE DRY LINE TO THE                       
WEST OF WICHITA...THEN QUICKLY EVOLVE NORTHEASTWARD THRU THE                    
AFTERNOON. WILL BE UPDATING OUTLOOK AND FORECAST GRIDS TO                       
SHOW THIS LATEST TREND IN EXPECTATIONS. ALSO LOOKS LIKE A                       
WIND AND INCREASED FIRE DANGER RISK BY LATE AFTERNOON AND                       
EARLY EVENING FOR AREAS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS                     
BEHIND THE DRY LINE. BLOWING DUST ALREADY OBSERVED ACROSS THE                   
TEXAS PANHANDLE.                                                                
UPDATES OUT SHORTLY...                                                          
KED                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 908 AM CDT THU APR 6 2006/                          
UPDATE...                                                                       
UPGRADE TO HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND FORECAST NEEDED TO                     
HIGHLIGHT THE SIGNIFICANT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE                    
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE SCENARIO                  
IS NOT THAT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN ONE WEEK AGO (LAST THURSDAY)                    
WITH A RISK FOR A FEW STRONG TORNADOES. A LOCAL CONFERENCE                      
CALL TO AREA EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL LIKELY BE COMING LATE                    
THIS MORNING.                                                                   
KED                                                                             
&&                                                                              
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CDT THU APR 6 2006/                           
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
FORECAST PROBLEMS:                                                              
1) SEVERE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER PRIMARILY SE KS THIS AFTERNOON.             
2) SOUTHERLY WINDS ACHIEVING ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON OVER              
ALL OF FORECAST AREA.                                                           
TODAY:                                                                          
VERY ACTIVE DAY AWAITS THE NEIGHBORHOOD AS INTENSE UPSTAIRS LOW                 
MOVES SE FROM WY ACROSS NW KS. ALL 3 "PRIMARY" MODELS AGREE QUITE               
ON ALL FACETS OF THIS FEATURE. AS SUCH...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS               
FAIRLY HIGH WITH RESPECT TO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER POTENTIAL IN TERMS              
OF SEVERE CONVECTION & SOUTHERLY WINDS ACHIEVING ADVISORY                       
POTENTIAL. ONE FEATURE THAT MUST BE WATCHED CLOSELY IS POSITIONING              
OF WHAT NOW APPEARS TO BE A PACIFIC COLD FRONT SURGING EAST TOWARD              
WRN CORRIDOR LATE THIS MORNING. WITH SYSTEM ASSUMING MORE OF A                  
"STACKED" VARIANT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN                     
MARKEDLY WHICH SHOULD ENABLE THE PACIFIC FRONT TO ACCELERATE THIS               
AFTERNOON. AS SUCH HAVE TAKEN CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO POPS WITH                
HIGHEST (~40%) ASSIGNED TO NE CORRIDOR WHERE NOT ONLY CLOSER TO                 
RICH SFC-850MB MOISTURE AXIS BUT ALSO TO LEFT EXIT REGION OF 300-               
MB JET MAX SURGING EAST ACROSS OK. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VERY                        
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPER-CELLULAR CONVECTION WITH LARGE HAIL & DAMAGING              
WINDS BOTH THREATS. A 2ND CONCERN IS STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS.             
MODEL SOUNDINGS ALL DEPICT VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES TO NEARLY 700-MB              
THAT ARE NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC. THINKING IS THAT CLOUD COVER WILL                
BE SUFFICIENT TO PREVENT MAX MIXING POTENTIAL BUT CERTAINLY                     
BELIEVE WIND ADVISORY IS GOOD CALL & WILL RETAIN. WIND ADVISORY TO              
REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM GENERALLY 11AM TO 7PM.                                    
TONIGHT:                                                                        
WITH PACIFIC FRONT CONTINUING EWD SURGE ACROSS KS/MO BORDER SEVERE              
CONVECTIVE THREAT TO LIKEWISE SHIFT NE-E OF FORECAST AREA. FOCUS                
THEN SHIFTS TO POTENTIAL OF WRAP-AROUND ASSOCIATED SHRA THAT WILL               
MIGRATE S/SE TOWARD PRIMARILY CENTRAL KS LATER TONIGHT. HAVE                    
RETAINED ~30% POPS ACROSS CENTRAL KS.                                           
FRIDAY:                                                                         
MODELS CONTINUE INDICATING THAT UPSTAIRS LOW WILL GRADUALLY FILL &              
MOVE SE ACROSS ERN KS. SFC-850MB COHORTS TO THEREFORE MOVE IN LIKE              
MANNER WITH VERY TIGHT NORTHERLY GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL KS. VERY               
LIKELY 2ND WIND ADVISORY WILL BE REQUIRED FOR CENTRAL KS FRI                    
AFTERNOON...BUT BEING A 3RD PERIOD FORECAST...WILL HOLD OFF                     
ISSUANCE TO ALLOW SUCCESSORS CHANCE TO STUDY SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.             
WITH SFC LOW MOVING SE ACROSS ERN KS...WRAP-AROUND ASSOCIATED SHRA              
TO SPREAD S/SE ACROSS REMAINDER OF OFRECAST AREA & HAVE GRADUALLY               
INCREASED POPS TO 30-40% MOST AREAS.                                            
FRIDAY NIGHT:                                                                   
BROAD INVERTED SFC RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH FROM NRN PLAINS INTO KS                   
THEREBY SHUNTING ALL PRECIPITATION SE OF FORECAST AREA.                         
EXTENDED:                                                                       
AFTER DRY WEEKEND...NEXT CHANCE FOR TSRA STILL APPEARS SLATED FOR               
NEXT MONDAY AFTERNOON-TUESDAY NIGHT AS NEXT UPSTAIRS TROF DEEPENS               
OVER AZ.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                 
WICHITA-KICT    81  46  61  40 /  20  20  30  30                                
HUTCHINSON      80  44  60  38 /  20  20  30  30                                
NEWTON          81  45  63  39 /  30  20  30  30                                
ELDORADO        81  46  64  40 /  30  20  30  30                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   84  47  64  41 /  30  10  30  30                                
RUSSELL         76  40  49  33 /  30  30  40  30                                
GREAT BEND      77  40  50  34 /  20  30  40  30                                
SALINA          80  44  60  35 /  30  30  40  30                                
MCPHERSON       80  44  61  37 /  30  30  30  30                                
COFFEYVILLE     82  50  69  40 /  40  20  20  20                                
CHANUTE         80  49  68  38 /  40  30  30  20                                
IOLA            79  48  68  38 /  40  30  30  20                                
PARSONS-KPPF    81  50  69  39 /  40  30  20  20                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM THURSDAY FOR KSZ051>053-067>072-082-083-               
091>096-098>100.                                                                
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM THURSDAY FOR KSZ032-033-047>050.                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
940 PM EDT THU APR 6 2005                                                       
.UPDATE...SFC/RUC/SATELLITE/UPPER AIR AND RADAR ANALYSIS SHOWING                
ZONE OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES IN THE 600-500MB LAYER WITH DEEPER                  
MOISTURE WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL PLAINS WARM FRONT HAS ALLOWED THE                
SPRINKLES TO BUILD INTO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. THIS IS OCCURRING IN            
STRENGTHENING DEFORMATION ZONE BETWEEN ONE UPPER LOW NEAR JAMES                 
BAY...AND ANOTHER (PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS)              
ENTERING THE IOWA/MO BORDER. OTHER RAIN SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING INTO            
SRN WISCONSIN...AND EXPECT BOTH AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS TO TRY AND                
MERGE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHER LOWER...MAINLY SOUTH OF M-68 INTO THE              
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE 40% RANGE IN THIS                 
AREA. LATE TONIGHT...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW TO OUR                
NORTH DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN CWA...AND COLDER AIR AND STRONGER                 
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ARRIVE IN IT'S WAKE. THIS WILL GRADUALLY DRY               
OUT THE ATMOSPHERE BY TOMORROW MORNING...AND PUSH ANY CHANCE OF RAIN            
TO OUR SOUTH.                                                                   
ALSO...THE NORTHERLY WINDS AND DEVELOPING OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY WILL            
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS TO 25KTS...LOCALLY HIGHER. THIS WILL WARRANT              
THE ISSUANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL MARINE ZONES.                    
MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE TEMPS...AS CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS WARM                
UNTIL COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE.  SMD                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 707 PM EDT THU APR 6 2005                            
UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE FOR SCATTERED SPRINKLES THAT ARE DEVELOPING               
OVER THE AREA. THIS IS OCCURRING IN A ZONE OF STEEPER (6.5C/KM)                 
LAPSE RATES IN THE DEEPER MID LEVEL MOISTURE BETWEEN 600-500MB. THIS            
ACTIVITY IS WELL NORTH OF A WARM FRONT IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH              
WAS PRODUCING ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR NE SOUTH              
DAKOTA AND SRN MINNESOTA...AND IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS. SOME OF THIS                
ACTION MAY TRY AND SNEAK INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA LATE TONIGHT BUT             
WITHOUT THE THUNDER...AS ALL OF THE INSTABILITY WILL BE WELL SOUTH              
OF US.                                                                          
WILL BE TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR                
POSSIBLE OTHER UPDATES LATER TONIGHT.     SMD                                   
&&                                                                              
PREV DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 430 PM EDT THU APR 6 2005 DISCUSSION...RUC            
ANALYSIS AND VIS/IR/WV IMAGERY SHOW SURFACE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUING TO            
HANG TOUGH ACROSS MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON.  6KFT-10KFT CLOUD DECK               
CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE                
SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT PLAINS.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE                    
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS                                       
IOWA...ILLINOIS...INDIANA.  MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM             
LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS              
CENTRAL ONTARIO AND NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR.  THROUGH FRIDAY...MAIN              
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL INCLUDE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS            
OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA.                                                           
TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS            
THE NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD.  WARM ADVECTION                 
MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT             
ACROSS THE CWA...BUT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FAR TO OUR                
SOUTH. GFS/NAM ARE PROJECTING THE COLD FRONT TO REACH EASTERN UPPER             
BY ABOUT THE 06Z TIMEFRAME AND THE TRAVERSE CITY AND ALPENA AREAS BY            
12Z.  MUCH DRIER AIR (850-700MB RH 10-20 PCT) WILL RESIDE BEHIND                
THIS FRONT WHICH WILL HELP TO CLEAR OUT MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER ONCE            
THE FRONT PASSES.  AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT DURING THE NIGHT             
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY.  THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW RAIN                    
SHOWERS...MOSTLY CONFINED ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF M-55.  THIS IS              
WHERE THE NAM AND GFS DIFFER...ESPECIALLY AFTER THE 06Z TIMEFRAME.              
THE GFS SHOWS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN ITS                      
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE THAN THE NAM.  THE GFS ALSO CUTS OFF THE                  
MOISTURE AT THE -5C LEVEL WHILE THE NAM ENDS AT THE 0C MARK.                    
THEREFORE...BELIEVE ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL BE OF THE LIQUID             
VARIETY.  WITH THIS MOISTURE DIFFERENCE...HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE             
TWO MODELS AND LEFT A 30 POP ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-55.                           
FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHWARD                 
TOMORROW...BUT WILL NOT CLEAR THE CWA UNTIL THE 18Z-21Z TIMEFRAME.              
MUCH OF THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HAVE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH BY                 
18Z...BUT NAM/GFS BOTH INDICATED A SHARP CUTOFF BETWEEN THE                     
RELATIVELY DEEPER MOISTURE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA.  BECAUSE OF            
THIS SHARP MOISTURE CONTRAST...HAVE KEPT A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS              
(MOISTURE WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH -10C) ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-55.                 
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER...AS                 
850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO -10C BY 00Z (AND 18Z ACROSS EASTERN UPPER).            
THIS WOULD PUT DELTA T'S APPROX -10 TO -12C ACROSS LAKE                         
SUPERIOR...SLIGHTLY TOO WARM FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPMENT.                  
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE GUSTY TOMORROW WITH A SHARP            
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW AND LOW PRESSURE              
TO THE SE.  NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS APPROACHING 35 AND 25              
KTS RESPECTIVELY WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER ACROSS NW LOWER BY THE                  
AFTERNOON.  THESE CONDITIONS WOULD WARRANT AT LEAST A SMALL CRAFT               
ADVISORY ALONG N-S ORIENTED LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON SHORELINES.            
MPC                                                                             
.LONG TERM...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT            
WEEK WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED. UPPER             
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH            
PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE TROUGH.                
MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AT THE             
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL RESULT IN A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN             
THE CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES. MAIN CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM CENTER              
ON CLOUDS/CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN UPPER FRIDAY                  
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AND RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT             
AND WEDNESDAY.                                                                  
FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP INTO THE MID                  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING MICHIGAN                
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER                 
LEVEL LOW IN WESTERN QUEBEC WILL BRUSH THE NORTHER REACHES OF THE               
CWA WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES BEING THE BIGGEST CONCERN. BY 06Z 850              
MB TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE DECREASED TO -10C TO -12C CREATING LAKE TO            
850 MB DELTA T/S IN THE 13C TO 15C RANGE. ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS              
INDICATE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF DRY AIR AOB 900 MB WILL LIMIT THE              
LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO LIMIT THE                      
POTENTIAL...HOWEVER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW                
WILL DROP A BIT FURTHER SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT RESULTING IN A BIT               
BETTER LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. WITH THAT BEING SAID WILL CUT BACK                
FROM SNOW SHOWERS TO FLURRIES ACROSS THE NW AND NNW LAKE EFFECT                 
PRONE AREAS OF EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHERN LOWER.                                
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS EAST OF             
THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING WITH SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BEHIND               
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PREPARING TO ENTER THE REGION. 850 MB                       
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE -8C RANGE WITH LAKE TO 850 MB DELTA T/S             
AROUND 11C. THIS BRINGS UP THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND             
SNOW DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THERE ARE SEVERAL FACTORS WHICH WILL             
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT...STARTING WITH THE DRY AIR                 
INTRUDING AOB 850 MB. 850-700 MB LAYER RH WILL BE 50-60 PCT WHILE               
700-500 MB LAYER RH WILL ONLY BE 30 PCT OR LESS. WITH THE AVAILABLE             
MOISTURE AOB 700 MB LAKE EFFECT WILL BE KEPT TO A MINIMUM AS                    
DENDRITIC GROWTH AND SEEDING PROCESSES WILL BE UNABLE TO TAP INTO               
AIR COLDER THAN -10C. WITH THAT IN MIND HAVE SCALED BACK THE SNOW               
SHOWERS TO FLURRIES AND LIMITED THE AREAS TO THOSE FAVORED IN NW AND            
NNW FLOW. SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WEAK WAA                    
OVERSPREADS THE REGION AND RAISES THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE TO AROUND              
-4C BY 00Z. WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE INCREASING THE LAKE TO 850              
MB DELTA T WILL BE UNDER 10C AND ELIMINATE THE POSSIBILITY OF LAKE              
EFFECT SNOW.                                                                    
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AND A RELATIVELY FLAT UPPER             
LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA WITH THE MAIN                    
MOISTURE AXIS ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO. WEAK WAA WILL STRENGTHEN INTO            
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO 4C TOWARD DAYBREAK            
MONDAY. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND CLIMBING 850             
MB TEMPERATURES WILL EXPECT NO PRECIPITATION WITH THE GREATEST                  
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVER EASTERN UPPER DUE TO THE MOISTURE AXIS.                   
MONDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...AXIS OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE            
WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES                   
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN TRANQUIL AS            
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE MAIN BULK OF THE MOISTURE NORTH OF THE              
AREA UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TUESDAY EVENING THE NEXT LOW                 
PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE REGION BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN                   
SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY...BUT WITH MODEL               
SOUNDINGS INDICATING A LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WITH THE RAIN            
SHOWERS ATTM. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION                  
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WHEN HIGH PRESSURE AND A MINOR UPPER LEVEL             
RIDGE ONCE AGAIN ENTER THE AREA.                                                
&&                                                                              
.APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
930 PM EDT THU APR 6 2006                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
AT 01Z KGRR RADAR IMAGERY AND SFC OBS INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS                   
PREVAIL ACROSS OUR AREA. THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY DRY                  
AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE AND I THINK THE ONSET OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER             
OUR SOUTHERN CWA WILL BE DELAYED A BIT UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND                 
BECOME MORE LIKELY TOWARDS DAYBREAK FRIDAY. LATEST SHORT RANGE                  
GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE RUC-13 STILL SHOW RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP              
OVER OUR SOUTHERN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CENTRAL CWA VERY LATE.                 
THIS AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND CLOSER TO OUR AREA AND SFC               
DEW POINTS RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.                                   
WE WILL ISSUE A ZONE UPDATE TO MENTION THAT RAIN WILL NOT DEVELOP               
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT CENTRAL AND SOUTH. WE WILL ALSO TRIM BACK POPS             
SOMEWHAT FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD... ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR CENTRAL              
CWA. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WHICH ARE MOVING EAST OVER LAKE MI CONTINUE             
TO DISSIPATE AS THEY ENCOUNTER THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER OUR               
AREA.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LAURENS                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
707 PM EDT THU APR 6 2005                                                       
.UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE FOR SCATTERED SPRINKLES THAT ARE DEVELOPING              
OVER THE AREA. THIS IS OCCURRING IN A ZONE OF STEEPER (6.5C/KM)                 
LAPSE RATES IN THE DEEPER MID LEVEL MOISTURE BETWEEN 600-500MB. THIS            
ACTIVITY IS WELL NORTH OF A WARM FRONT IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH              
WAS PRODUCING ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR NE SOUTH              
DAKOTA AND SRN MINNESOTA...AND IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS. SOME OF THIS                
ACTION MAY TRY AND SNEAK INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA LATE TONIGHT BUT             
WITHOUT THE THUNDER...AS ALL OF THE INSTABILITY WILL BE WELL SOUTH              
OF US.                                                                          
WILL BE TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR                
POSSIBLE OTHER UPDATES LATER TONIGHT.     SMD                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 430 PM EDT THU APR 6 2005                            
DISCUSSION...RUC ANALYSIS AND VIS/IR/WV IMAGERY SHOW SURFACE RIDGE              
AXIS CONTINUING TO HANG TOUGH ACROSS MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON.                   
6KFT-10KFT CLOUD DECK CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A              
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT PLAINS.  SHOWERS AND                  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS                     
IOWA...ILLINOIS...INDIANA.  MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM             
LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS              
CENTRAL ONTARIO AND NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR.  THROUGH FRIDAY...MAIN              
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL INCLUDE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS            
OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA.                                                           
TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS            
THE NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD.  WARM ADVECTION                 
MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT             
ACROSS THE CWA...BUT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FAR TO OUR                
SOUTH. GFS/NAM ARE PROJECTING THE COLD FRONT TO REACH EASTERN UPPER             
BY ABOUT THE 06Z TIMEFRAME AND THE TRAVERSE CITY AND ALPENA AREAS BY            
12Z.  MUCH DRIER AIR (850-700MB RH 10-20 PCT) WILL RESIDE BEHIND                
THIS FRONT WHICH WILL HELP TO CLEAR OUT MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER ONCE            
THE FRONT PASSES.  AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT DURING THE NIGHT             
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY.  THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW RAIN                    
SHOWERS...MOSTLY CONFINED ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF M-55.  THIS IS              
WHERE THE NAM AND GFS DIFFER...ESPECIALLY AFTER THE 06Z TIMEFRAME.              
THE GFS SHOWS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN ITS                      
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE THAN THE NAM.  THE GFS ALSO CUTS OFF THE                  
MOISTURE AT THE -5C LEVEL WHILE THE NAM ENDS AT THE 0C MARK.                    
THEREFORE...BELIEVE ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL BE OF THE LIQUID             
VARIETY.  WITH THIS MOISTURE DIFFERENCE...HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE             
TWO MODELS AND LEFT A 30 POP ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-55.                           
FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHWARD                 
TOMORROW...BUT WILL NOT CLEAR THE CWA UNTIL THE 18Z-21Z TIMEFRAME.              
MUCH OF THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HAVE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH BY                 
18Z...BUT NAM/GFS BOTH INDICATED A SHARP CUTOFF BETWEEN THE                     
RELATIVELY DEEPER MOISTURE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA.  BECAUSE OF            
THIS SHARP MOISTURE CONTRAST...HAVE KEPT A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS              
(MOISTURE WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH -10C) ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-55.                 
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER...AS                 
850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO -10C BY 00Z (AND 18Z ACROSS EASTERN UPPER).            
THIS WOULD PUT DELTA T'S APPROX -10 TO -12C ACROSS LAKE                         
SUPERIOR...SLIGHTLY TOO WARM FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPMENT.                  
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE GUSTY TOMORROW WITH A SHARP            
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW AND LOW PRESSURE              
TO THE SE.  NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS APPROACHING 35 AND 25              
KTS RESPECTIVELY WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER ACROSS NW LOWER BY THE                  
AFTERNOON.  THESE CONDITIONS WOULD WARRANT AT LEAST A SMALL CRAFT               
ADVISORY ALONG N-S ORIENTED LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON SHORELINES.            
MPC                                                                             
.LONG TERM...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT            
WEEK WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED. UPPER             
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH            
PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE TROUGH.                
MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AT THE             
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL RESULT IN A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN             
THE CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES. MAIN CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM CENTER              
ON CLOUDS/CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN UPPER FRIDAY                  
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AND RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT             
AND WEDNESDAY.                                                                  
FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP INTO THE MID                  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING MICHIGAN                
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER                 
LEVEL LOW IN WESTERN QUEBEC WILL BRUSH THE NORTHER REACHES OF THE               
CWA WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES BEING THE BIGGEST CONCERN. BY 06Z 850              
MB TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE DECREASED TO -10C TO -12C CREATING LAKE TO            
850 MB DELTA T/S IN THE 13C TO 15C RANGE. ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS              
INDICATE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF DRY AIR AOB 900 MB WILL LIMIT THE              
LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO LIMIT THE                      
POTENTIAL...HOWEVER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW                
WILL DROP A BIT FURTHER SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT RESULTING IN A BIT               
BETTER LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. WITH THAT BEING SAID WILL CUT BACK                
FROM SNOW SHOWERS TO FLURRIES ACROSS THE NW AND NNW LAKE EFFECT                 
PRONE AREAS OF EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHERN LOWER.                                
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS EAST OF             
THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING WITH SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BEHIND               
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PREPARING TO ENTER THE REGION. 850 MB                       
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE -8C RANGE WITH LAKE TO 850 MB DELTA T/S             
AROUND 11C. THIS BRINGS UP THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND             
SNOW DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THERE ARE SEVERAL FACTORS WHICH WILL             
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT...STARTING WITH THE DRY AIR                 
INTRUDING AOB 850 MB. 850-700 MB LAYER RH WILL BE 50-60 PCT WHILE               
700-500 MB LAYER RH WILL ONLY BE 30 PCT OR LESS. WITH THE AVAILABLE             
MOISTURE AOB 700 MB LAKE EFFECT WILL BE KEPT TO A MINIMUM AS                    
DENDRITIC GROWTH AND SEEDING PROCESSES WILL BE UNABLE TO TAP INTO               
AIR COLDER THAN -10C. WITH THAT IN MIND HAVE SCALED BACK THE SNOW               
SHOWERS TO FLURRIES AND LIMITED THE AREAS TO THOSE FAVORED IN NW AND            
NNW FLOW. SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WEAK WAA                    
OVERSPREADS THE REGION AND RAISES THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE TO AROUND              
-4C BY 00Z. WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE INCREASING THE LAKE TO 850              
MB DELTA T WILL BE UNDER 10C AND ELIMINATE THE POSSIBILITY OF LAKE              
EFFECT SNOW.                                                                    
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AND A RELATIVELY FLAT UPPER             
LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA WITH THE MAIN                    
MOISTURE AXIS ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO. WEAK WAA WILL STRENGTHEN INTO            
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO 4C TOWARD DAYBREAK            
MONDAY. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND CLIMBING 850             
MB TEMPERATURES WILL EXPECT NO PRECIPITATION WITH THE GREATEST                  
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVER EASTERN UPPER DUE TO THE MOISTURE AXIS.                   
MONDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...AXIS OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE            
WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES                   
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN TRANQUIL AS            
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE MAIN BULK OF THE MOISTURE NORTH OF THE              
AREA UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TUESDAY EVENING THE NEXT LOW                 
PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE REGION BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN                   
SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY...BUT WITH MODEL               
SOUNDINGS INDICATING A LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WITH THE RAIN            
SHOWERS ATTM. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION                  
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WHEN HIGH PRESSURE AND A MINOR UPPER LEVEL             
RIDGE ONCE AGAIN ENTER THE AREA.                                                
&&                                                                              
.APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
430 PM EDT THU APR 6 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...RUC ANALYSIS AND VIS/IR/WV IMAGERY SHOW SURFACE RIDGE             
AXIS CONTINUING TO HANG TOUGH ACROSS MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON.                   
6KFT-10KFT CLOUD DECK CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A              
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT PLAINS.  SHOWERS AND                  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS                     
IOWA...ILLINOIS...INDIANA.  MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM             
LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS              
CENTRAL ONTARIO AND NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR.  THROUGH FRIDAY...MAIN              
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL INCLUDE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS            
OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA.                                                           
TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS            
THE NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD.  WARM ADVECTION                 
MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT             
ACROSS THE CWA...BUT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FAR TO OUR                
SOUTH. GFS/NAM ARE PROJECTING THE COLD FRONT TO REACH EASTERN UPPER             
BY ABOUT THE 06Z TIMEFRAME AND THE TRAVERSE CITY AND ALPENA AREAS BY            
12Z.  MUCH DRIER AIR (850-700MB RH 10-20 PCT) WILL RESIDE BEHIND                
THIS FRONT WHICH WILL HELP TO CLEAR OUT MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER ONCE            
THE FRONT PASSES.  AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT DURING THE NIGHT             
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY.  THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW RAIN                    
SHOWERS...MOSTLY CONFINED ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF M-55.  THIS IS              
WHERE THE NAM AND GFS DIFFER...ESPECIALLY AFTER THE 06Z TIMEFRAME.              
THE GFS SHOWS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN ITS                      
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE THAN THE NAM.  THE GFS ALSO CUTS OFF THE                  
MOISTURE AT THE -5C LEVEL WHILE THE NAM ENDS AT THE 0C MARK.                    
THEREFORE...BELIEVE ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL BE OF THE LIQUID             
VARIETY.  WITH THIS MOISTURE DIFFERENCE...HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE             
TWO MODELS AND LEFT A 30 POP ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-55.                           
FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHWARD                 
TOMORROW...BUT WILL NOT CLEAR THE CWA UNTIL THE 18Z-21Z TIMEFRAME.              
MUCH OF THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HAVE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH BY                 
18Z...BUT NAM/GFS BOTH INDICATED A SHARP CUTOFF BETWEEN THE                     
RELATIVELY DEEPER MOISTURE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA.  BECAUSE OF            
THIS SHARP MOISTURE CONTRAST...HAVE KEPT A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS (MOISTURE    
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH -10C) ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-55.                           
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER...AS                 
850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO -10C BY 00Z (AND 18Z ACROSS EASTERN UPPER).            
THIS WOULD PUT DELTA T'S APPROX -10 TO -12C ACROSS LAKE                         
SUPERIOR...SLIGHTLY TOO WARM FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPMENT.                  
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE GUSTY TOMORROW WITH A SHARP            
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW AND LOW PRESSURE              
TO THE SE.  NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS APPROACHING 35 AND 25              
KTS RESPECTIVELY WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER ACROSS NW LOWER BY THE                  
AFTERNOON.  THESE CONDITIONS WOULD WARRANT AT LEAST A SMALL CRAFT               
ADVISORY ALONG N-S ORIENTED LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON                        
SHORELINES.                                                                     
MPC                                                                             
.LONG TERM...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT            
WEEK WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED. UPPER             
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH            
PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE TROUGH.                
MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AT THE             
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL RESULT IN A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN             
THE CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES. MAIN CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM CENTER              
ON CLOUDS/CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN UPPER FRIDAY                  
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AND RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT             
AND WEDNESDAY.                                                                  
FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP INTO THE MID                  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING MICHIGAN                
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER                 
LEVEL LOW IN WESTERN QUEBEC WILL BRUSH THE NORTHER REACHES OF THE               
CWA WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES BEING THE BIGGEST CONCERN. BY 06Z 850              
MB TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE DECREASED TO -10C TO -12C CREATING LAKE TO            
850 MB DELTA T/S IN THE 13C TO 15C RANGE. ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS              
INDICATE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF DRY AIR AOB 900 MB WILL LIMIT THE              
LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO LIMIT THE                      
POTENTIAL...HOWEVER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW                
WILL DROP A BIT FURTHER SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT RESULTING IN A BIT               
BETTER LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. WITH THAT BEING SAID WILL CUT BACK                
FROM SNOW SHOWERS TO FLURRIES ACROSS THE NW AND NNW LAKE EFFECT                 
PRONE AREAS OF EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHERN LOWER.                                
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS EAST OF             
THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING WITH SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BEHIND               
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PREPARING TO ENTER THE REGION. 850 MB                       
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE -8C RANGE WITH LAKE TO 850 MB DELTA T/S             
AROUND 11C. THIS BRINGS UP THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND             
SNOW DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THERE ARE SEVERAL FACTORS WHICH WILL             
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT...STARTING WITH THE DRY AIR                 
INTRUDING AOB 850 MB. 850-700 MB LAYER RH WILL BE 50-60 PCT WHILE               
700-500 MB LAYER RH WILL ONLY BE 30 PCT OR LESS. WITH THE AVAILABLE             
MOISTURE AOB 700 MB LAKE EFFECT WILL BE KEPT TO A MINIMUM AS                    
DENDRITIC GROWTH AND SEEDING PROCESSES WILL BE UNABLE TO TAP INTO               
AIR COLDER THAN -10C. WITH THAT IN MIND HAVE SCALED BACK THE SNOW               
SHOWERS TO FLURRIES AND LIMITED THE AREAS TO THOSE FAVORED IN NW AND            
NNW FLOW. SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WEAK WAA                    
OVERSPREADS THE REGION AND RAISES THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE TO AROUND              
-4C BY 00Z. WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE INCREASING THE LAKE TO 850              
MB DELTA T WILL BE UNDER 10C AND ELIMINATE THE POSSIBILITY OF LAKE              
EFFECT SNOW.                                                                    
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AND A RELATIVELY FLAT UPPER             
LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA WITH THE MAIN                    
MOISTURE AXIS ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO. WEAK WAA WILL STRENGTHEN INTO            
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO 4C TOWARD DAYBREAK            
MONDAY. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND CLIMBING 850             
MB TEMPERATURES WILL EXPECT NO PRECIPITATION WITH THE GREATEST                  
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVER EASTERN UPPER DUE TO THE MOISTURE AXIS.                   
MONDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...AXIS OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE            
WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES                   
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN TRANQUIL AS            
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE MAIN BULK OF THE MOISTURE NORTH OF THE              
AREA UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TUESDAY EVENING THE NEXT LOW                 
PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE REGION BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN                   
SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY...BUT WITH MODEL               
SOUNDINGS INDICATING A LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WITH THE RAIN            
SHOWERS ATTM. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION                  
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WHEN HIGH PRESSURE AND A MINOR UPPER LEVEL             
RIDGE ONCE AGAIN ENTER THE AREA.                                                
&&                                                                              
.APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
411 PM EDT THU APR 6 2006                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WATER VAPOR AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW RIDGING FROM THE MIDDLE                       
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE NORTHERN            
EXTENT OF THIS RIDGING IS UNDER A SQUEEZE PLAY BETWEEN AN AMPLIFIED             
TROUGH ENTERING THE CENTRAL CONUS FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND               
POTENT NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH FROM HUDSON BAY INTO            
NORTHERN ONTARIO. THROUGH TONIGHT...LOOK FOR THE CENTRAL CONUS                  
TROUGH TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE TO THE EAST AS IT IS FORCED EAST AND             
SOUTHEAST BY THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN                
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST CONUS. FURTHER UPSTREAM...NORTH PACIFIC               
ENERGY IS FORECAST TO REACH THE WEST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM            
WILL IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.             
12Z GUIDANCE IS A BIT SLOWER ON THE TROUGH PASSAGE AND RESULTANT CAA            
INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. REALLY A TOUGH DECISION BUT DECIDED             
TO RAISE MIN TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES INTO THE UPPER 20S AND               
LOWER 30S AS SKYCOVER LOOKS TO BE PREDOMINANTLY MOSTLY CLOUDY AND               
REAL GOOD PUSH OF CAA HOLDS OFF TILL VERY LATE AND ESPECIALLY DURING            
FRIDAY MORNING. NAM AND GFS (SOMEWHAT) SHOWING A POSSIBLE BREAK IN              
THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR A WHILE TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND                
BEFORE LAKE CLOUDS BEGIN TO FILL IN. WHEN WITH THIS IN THE SKY COVER            
GRIDS AND ALLOWS FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO DEVELOP FOR A WHILE IN              
MOST AREAS. CONTINUED GOING FORECAST IDEA OF KEEPING ALL QPF OFF TO             
THE SOUTH OF THE CWA FOR TONIGHT. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND Q DEEP               
LAYER Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE ALL SUPPRESSED SOUTH INTO CENTRAL AND                
SOUTHERN WI. REMOTE CHANCE OF A SPRINKLE OR SHOWER CLIPPING                     
SOUTHCENTRAL CWA...BUT THINK CHANCES ARE REMOTE ENOUGH NOT TO                   
INCLUDE IN FORECAST PACKAGE. NAM AND GFS BUFKIT SHOWING AFTER                   
MIDNIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR A BIT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE UPSLOPE             
FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHCENTRAL UPPER MI. INVERSION AROUND               
3.5K FT WITH INVERSION BASE TEMPS AROUND -9 OR -10 AFTER MIDNIGHT.              
IF NAM MOISTURE PROFILE IS CORRECT THEN COULD SEE THIS PATCHY                   
FREEZING DRIZZLE IN SPOTS...NOT EXPECTING A MAJOR PROBLEM...BUT                 
THOUGHT IT WORTHY OF ADDING TO THE GRIDS. LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY                
FRIDAY TEMPS GET BORDERLINE TO CHANGE THINGS OVER THE FLURRIES...BUT            
EITHER WAY SHOULD BE MINOR AND DIMINISH BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH                 
AFTERNOON DIURNAL DISRUPTION.                                                   
FLURRIES OR NOT...FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A BREEZY BLUSTERY DAY ACROSS               
THE AREA. DID BUMP TEMPS BACK UP A FEW DEGREES AS NOT CONVINCED ON              
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALL DAY. IN FACT...AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR COULD            
SEE SOME PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AT TIMES...AND THIS TIME OF YEAR IT IS              
HARD TO KEEP THINGS IN THE LOWER 30S WITH SUN. UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE             
NORTHCENTRAL U.P WILL BE COOLEST WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S A GOOD                
BET.                                                                            
LIKELY TO SEE SOME FLURRIES REDEVELOP OFF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE                
EASTERN CWA DURING FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY                      
MORNING...AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF ANYTHING FROM THESE SNOW                  
SHOWERS. WITH DIURNAL DISRUPTION AND RIDGE BUILDING INTO AREA ANY               
FLURRIES SHOULD END BY MIDDAY. EXPECTING AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES            
BY AFTERNOON. BUMPED TEMPS UP AGAIN HERE...FULL MIXING WOULD YIELD              
MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S WEST AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 40 EAST...BUT THOUGH               
SOME CLOUDS IN THE MORNING MAY HAMPER FULL MIXING AND WENT WITH                 
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ALL AREAS. RIDGE OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT AND                
THINKING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FAIRLY COLD NIGHT LOOK GOOD.                       
RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY BE NEAR IDEAL...ESPECIALLY IN FIRST HALF OF             
THE NIGHT AND ALLOWED THE NORMAL COOLER SPOTS TO FALL INTO THE                  
MIDDLE AND UPPER TEENS. STILL DRY FOR SUNDAY WITH RIDGE IN                      
CONTROL...BECOMING WARMER WITH 850 MB TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND 0 BY              
EVENING. MIXING TO 850MB DURING THE DAY GIVES LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S               
AND THINK THIS IS A GOOD BET. SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE                  
FAVORED AREAS LIKE IRONWOOD COULD SEE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 BY LATE              
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
MODELS ARE A BIT BETTER ORGANIZED IN THERE SOLUTIONS FOR THE SYSTEM             
TO IMPACT THE GREAT LAKE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THEY ARE            
STILL NOT COMPLETELY AGREED. GENERALLY RAN WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF            
AND CANADIAN FOR THIS EXTENDED PACKAGE. THE FEEL THE GFS HAS THE                
RIGHT IDEAS BUT ITS TIMEFRAME IS A BIT TO FAST. LEFT MONDAY DRY AT              
THIS POINT...THE GFS HAS A WEAK SHORTWAVE RUNNING ALONG THE                     
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY WITH WEAK 290 TO             
295K ISENTROPIC LIFT PRODUCING SOME LIGHT QPF. OTHER GUIDANCE                   
PACKAGES KEEP THIS PIECE OF ENERGY FURTHER TO THE WEST. 850MB THETA             
E RIDGE ADVANCING ACROSS THE PLAINS AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING            
IN EASTERN COLORADO WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST HALF            
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOW FAST THE HIGH CLOUDS              
COME IN WILL BE IMPORTANT. INDICATIONS ARE THAT IF ENOUGH SUN IS                
PRESENT MONDAY THAT TEMPERATURES COULD GET QUITE WARM. 850MB TEMPS              
RISE TO BETWEEN +5 AND +6C DURING THE DAY...PER ECMWF AND GFS.                  
RAISED TEMPS TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S...HOWEVER...WITH ENOUGH SUN            
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOWER 60S ALONG WISCONSIN BORDER            
AND IN AREAS FAVORED BY SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPING.                 
RAISED MIN AS WELL FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY GRADIENT CONTINUES             
TO DEVELOP AND CLOUDCOVER BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED...ESPECIALLY                 
ACROSS THE WEST. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THINGS TO COOL OFF A               
BIT MORE ACROSS THE EAST DURING THE EVENING AS THIS AREA SHOULD SEE             
LIGHTER WINDS BEING CLOSER TO THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE EAST...HOWEVER              
EVEN HERE LOOKING FOR TEMPS TO STEADY OFF OR EVEN RISE AFTER                    
MIDNIGHT.                                                                       
CENTRAL PLAINS SYSTEM BEGINS TO LIFT OUT TOWARD THE UPPER                       
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. PROGRESSED THE               
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS             
OF FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. 300K TO 305K ISENTROPIC LIFT IS                
MAXIMIZED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT CLOSE ENOUGH                
THAT ANY PRECIP PRODUCED WOULD RAPIDLY SPREAD EAST INTO THE WESTERN             
ZONES. ADDED THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDER AS SHOWALTER INDICES               
FALL TO BELOW 0 FOR A TIME ACROSS THE WEST...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY                 
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME                       
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF PRECIP DURING TUESDAY...DID BUMP UP                
HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT...POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WARM DAY EXISTS...IF            
THICKEST CLOUDS / PRECIP DO NOT COME IN AS QUICKLY. ALTHOUGH KEPT               
THINGS DRY ACROSS THE EAST...SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD            
KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK...IN FACT KEPT THINGS IN THE UPPER 40S               
CLOSE TO THE LAKE WITH ONLY LOWER 50S WELL INLAND...AND UP TOWARD               
LAKE SUPERIOR.                                                                  
SPREAD THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR                
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. DID NOT INCLUDE THE THREAT FOR THUNDER             
AS THE BEST INSTABILITY (SHOWALTER +1 OR LESS) IS SUPPRESSED SOUTH              
INTO CENTRAL WI AND MUCH OF LOWER MI. DESPITE THIS...WOULD NOT BE               
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME THUNDER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. LATER              
SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE.                                                
SHOWERS END ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DID LEAVE THE                  
CHANCE FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE FAR EAST              
DURING THURSDAY MORNING BUT IN GENERAL SHOULD SEE DRYING CONDITIONS             
AND DECREASING CLOUDS AS HEIGHTS BUILD BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM. WENT            
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY              
AS COLD AIR LOOKS TO BE LOCKED TO OUR NORTH WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CAA             
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MROCZKA                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
320 PM EDT THU APR 6 2006                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
THE FIRST ISSUE IS JUST HOW FAST CAN THE MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE            
SOUTH OVERCOME ALL THOSE LOW SURFACE DEW POINTS AND SHALLOW DRY AIR.            
THE SECOND ISSUE IS JUST HOW WET WILL THIS SYSTEM BE FOR SOUTHWEST              
MICHIGAN? THE RUC AND SPC ENSEMBLES ARE MUCH WETTER THAN ARE THE NAM            
AND GFS...LIKE NEARLY TWICE THE QPF AND FARTHER NORTH TOO. FINALLY              
THERE IS THE ISSUE OF WILL THERE REALLY BE SNOW HERE TOMORROW                   
AFTERNOON? THE ISSUE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS NEARLY GONE...THOSE WILL              
REALLY BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. SKIES WILL CLEAR QUICKLY FRIDAY               
EVENING AND FEW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT BUT             
IT WILL BE RATHER CHILLY TO SAY THE LEAST.                                      
TONIGHT...18Z TAMDAR FROM DTW SHOWED 40F BTW THE TEMP AND DEW POINT             
AT 900 MB.  ONE HAS TO GET TO NEAR 700 MB TO SEE TEMP DEW POINT                 
DEPRESSIONS LESS THAN 5F.  THAT IS A LOT OF DRY TO MOISTEN.  GIVEN              
MOST OF THE ISENTROPIC LIFT TONIGHT IS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 THANKS            
TO THE UPSTREAM RIDGE AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE THE MOISTURE            
WILL BE IN NO HURRY TO MAKE IT INTO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN. IT WILL TAKE            
TILL AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO REACH THIS AREA            
TO THAT THE LOWER LEVELS WILL ALLOW THE RAIN TO REACH THE GROUND.               
BASED ON THE 850 MB LI... THUNDER IS NEARLY OUT OF THE QUESTION.                
STILL I LEFT IT IN OVER THE SOUTH... MORE FOR CONTINUITY THAN                   
BECAUSE I BELIEVE IT WILL HAPPEN.                                               
FRIDAY...REALLY MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL COME FROM THE                    
STRENGTH OF THE FRONTOGENESIS /FGEN/ NEAR 700 MB OVER CENTRAL AND               
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY BETWEEN 12Z AND 21Z. SEEMS TO ME THE             
NRN STREAM SYSTEM WILL LARGELY CUT OFF THE INFLOW FROM THE SOUTHERN             
STREAM SYSTEM FRIDAY.  THE UPSTREAM RIDGE AXIS FROM THE SOUTHERN                
STREAM SYSTEM IS NOT EVEN EAST OF OUR CWA EVEN AT 12Z FRIDAY MORNING.           
THE FGEN FOR FRIDAY IS IMPRESSIVE AND IT THAT WHICH WILL FORCE                  
ALMOST ALL OF OUR QPF FROM THIS EVENT.  PROBLEM IS THE SPC ENSEMBLES            
PAGE HAS BEEN INDICATING 1 1/2 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN BETWEEN ROUTE 10             
AND I-96 FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW. IT'S BEEN VERY CONSISTENT. ALSO THE              
RUC13 AND RUC20 SHOW SOMETHING RATHER SIMILAR. THE RUC QPF DID                  
BETTER THAN THE NAM OR GFS FOR 00Z TO 12Z TODAY TOO. GIVEN ALL OF               
THAT...I BELIEVE MOST OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE NEAR AND NORTH              
OF INTERSTATE 96 FRIDAY DURING THE DAY TIME... MOSTLY 15Z TO 21Z.               
THE AIR DOES NOT GET COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW TILL AFT 18Z. THAT WILL               
LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS SOME. SO THE BOTTOM LINE IS RAIN SHOULD REALLY              
DEVELOP AFTER 03 AM AND BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES BETWEEN               
I-94 AND 60 MILES N OF I-96 BY MID MORNING. THE COLD AIR WILL CHANGE            
THE RAIN TO SNOW FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER 16Z. IN AREAS WERE THE               
PRECIPITATION NOT ALL THAT HEAVY IN TERMS OF RATE... IT LIKELY WILL             
STAY A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. ONLY IN AREAS WHERE IT IS PRECIPITATING            
AT MORE THAN A 0.05 INCHES PER HOUR (LIQUID RATE) WILL IT CHANGE TO             
ALL SNOW. LOCATIONS NEAR I-96 TO 60 MILES OR SO NORTH OF THERE COULD            
SEE A FEW INCHES ON THE GRASS IF ALL GOES WELL.  IF THE FGEN BAND               
REALLY GETS GOING LIKE THE SPC ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THERE COULD BE 5 TO            
7 INCHES BUT FOR NOW THAT IS NOT A HIGH ENOUGH CHANCE EVENT TO DO               
MORE THAN WRITE A FEW WORDS ABOUT.                                              
AFTER THAT...A VERY LARGE CANADIAN HIGH MOVES IN WITH A LOT OF DRY              
COOL AIR.  HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE 45F SATURDAY. SATURDAY              
NIGHT                                                                           
MAY BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE MONTH WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND               
LIGHT WINDS.                                                                    
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER AND               
WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. FOLLOWED THE GFS FOR EASE AND MADE CHANGES            
TO IMPROVE INTER OFFICE CONSISTENCY.                                            
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE             
REGION. DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH             
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH                  
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST COAST AND A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY                
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.                                      
A POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY.                 
EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM               
TUESDAY NIGHT. LOOKS TO BE A VIGOROUS SYSTEM WITH GOOD MOISTURE...              
SO HAVE BUMPED UP POPS. HAVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND            
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH              
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK                
ONCE THE WARMUP OCCURS.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WDM IOD                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1150 AM EDT THU APR 6 2006                                                      
.UPDATED...                                                                     
I AM BECOMING INCREASINGLY CONCERNED WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE                   
FRONTOGENESIS /FGEN/ NEAR 700 MB OVER NRN LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY. IT             
SEEMS TO ME THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM WILL LARGELY CUT OFF THE INFLOW               
FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM.  THE UPSTREAM RIDGE AXIS FROM THE              
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS NOT EVEN EAST OF OUR CWA EVEN AT 12Z                  
FRIDAY MORNING. SO I BELIEVE WE WILL HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING TO                
MUCH DEEP MOISTURE NORTH INTO MICHIGAN TONIGHT. JUST ABOUT ALL OF               
THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM STAYS SOUTH OF              
INTERSTATE 80 TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SO IT IS THAT IMPRESSIVE FGEN                
TOMORROW THAT WILL FORCE ALMOST ALL OF OUR QPF FROM THIS EVENT.                 
PROBLEM IS THE SPC ENSEMBLES PAGE HAS BEEN INDICATING 1 1/2 TO 2                
INCHES OF RAIN BETWEEN ROUTE 10 AND I-96 FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW. IT'S             
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT. ALSO THE RUC13 AND RUC20 SHOW SOMETHING RATHER            
SIMILAR. THE RUC QPF DID BETTER THAN THE NAM OR GFS FOR 00Z TO 12Z              
TODAY TOO. GIVEN ALL OF THAT...I BELIEVE MOST OF THE HEAVY                      
RAINFALL WILL BE NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 96 FRIDAY DURING THE              
DAY TIME... MOSTLY 15Z TO 21Z.  THE AIR DOES NOT GET COLD ENOUGH FOR            
SNOW TILL AFT 18Z. THAT WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS SOME.                          
I WILL LOOK AT THE LATEST GFS BUT AT THIS POINT I PLAN ON PUSHING               
THE FORECAST IN THE DIRECTION OF MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TOMORROW             
WITH THE HEAVIEST QPF OVER THE CENTRAL AND NRN CWA.                             
THE CURRENT ZONES LOOK GOOD TO ME FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO             
I DO NOT PLAN AN UPDATE.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WDM                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1120 AM EDT THU APR 6 2005                                                      
UPDATE...RUC ANALYSIS AND IR/VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOW SURFACE HIGH                  
PRESSURE AXIS STRETCHED ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING...WITH PARTLY               
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA.  8K-10KFT               
CLOUD DECK IS STRETCHING FROM MINNESOTA TO WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.              
TEMPS WERE RISING SLOWER THAN EXPECTED THIS MORNING...MOSTLY IN THE             
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S AS OF 10 AM.  WITH THE MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK                 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD AND BECOME THICKER THIS               
AFTERNOON...AND THE FACT THAT TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO WARM THAN               
ADVERTISED...HAVE NUDGED DOWN HI TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE                 
CWA...BUT STILL TOPPING OUT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S ACROSS INLAND            
AREAS OF NORTHERN LOWER AND NEAR 50 ACROSS INLAND EASTERN UPPER.                
HAVE ALSO BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE WESTERN                
HALF OF NORTHERN LOWER.  NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE...LAKE BREEZES              
STILL LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATE ALREADY OUT.                 
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU APR 6 2005                            
500 MB RIDGE AND SFC RIDGE CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THIS             
MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS, BUT WITH WAA CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE                   
REGION. TO THE WEST THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN              
FOR THE PACKAGE HAS BEGUN ITS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF              
THE ROCKIES AND IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.                                          
MODELS...ALL 5 MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT (GFS, NAM/ETA,               
NAM/WRF, UKMET, ECMWF). LEANED TOWARD THE GFS, THOUGH SINCE IT HAS              
BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT.                                                       
TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTH FLOW, NOT TO                  
MENTION THE BUILDING 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL GET TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM             
THE GREAT LAKES OF AROUND 60, MAYBE EVEN WARMER. NEAR THE LAKES WILL            
BE A DIFFERENT STORY.  WITH THE LIGHT 950 MB FLOW (MAINLY LESS THAN             
10 KNOTS ALL DAY), AND THE LAKE-LAND DELTA T OF ABOUT 13C, WOULD                
EXPECT DEEP PENETRATION OF THE LAKE BREEZE. SO HAVE TRIED TO ADJUST             
THE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE LAKE ACCORDINGLY, IN A FIRE WEATHER VAIN             
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY. ALSO IN A FIRE WEATHER VAIN, WITH THE LIGHT              
FLOW WOULD EXPECT UP VALLEY AND UPSLOPE WINDS WHERE THERE IS                    
CONSIDERABLE TERRAIN VARIANCE. EXPECTING THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO BE            
AROUND OR LESS THAN 25% IN OUR FAVORED AREAS.                                   
TONIGHT...REMOVED THE THREAT OF RAIN IN THE EVENING, AS THE MODELS              
ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE FLOW TURNS NORTHEASTERLY WHICH IS DRY                 
ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION AT BAY AND HELPS THE BAROCLINIC                
ZONE SHARPEN UP FURTHER SOUTH THAN DEPICTED YESTERDAY. OVERNIGHT,               
THE FRONT MOVES NORTH AND AFFECTS AREAS SOUTH OF M-72, THOUGH                   
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AGAIN FROM DRY SFC FLOW             
FROM THE NE. IF THE MODELS ARE RIGHT THE MAIN ACTION WILL BE IN N               
INDIANA ALONG THE SFC TROUGH/WARM FRONT, THIS SHOULD KEEP THE                   
PRECIPITATION AT BAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE NAM/ETA WITH NO             
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE RIGHT, BUT WITH THE GFS BEING FAIRLY                     
CONSISTENT, WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL              
BE RAIN BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z, THEN IT WILL APPROACH FREEZING ENOUGH              
THAT THERE WILL BE SOME MIXING OF PRECIPITATION TYPES.                          
FRIDAY...THE MORNING WILL HAVE PRECIPITATION MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH             
OF M-55 AND WILL HAVE CHANGED TO ALL SNOW AS THE COLD AIR FORCES THE            
WARM FRONT SOUTH AND THE SFC TROUGH GETS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO                     
REINFORCE THE NORTHEAST FLOW. SO THE FOR AFTERNOON, WOULD EXPECT                
THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL CEASE FOR A FEW HOURS AS THE MOISTURE ID            
LOW (RH<40% IN 850 AND 700-500 MB). 850 TEMPERATURES DON'T BEGIN TO             
GET COLD ENOUGH UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING (<-10C).                                   
LUTZ                                                                            
LATER PERIODS...ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL AIR TO START THE WEEKEND...AS              
UPPER TROF AXIS PIVOTS THRU. UNLIKE THIS LAST ONE THOUGH...THE                  
AIRMASS IS PRETTY DRY. THUS MAIN CONCERN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY              
IS CLOUDS...AND WHETHER ANY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW CAN FORM.                    
FRIDAY NIGHT...INITIAL 850MB THERMAL TROF WILL DROP ACROSS THE                  
FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. 850MB TEMPS             
DROP AS LOW AS -10C ON LAKE MI...-13C ON HURON...AND -12C ON                    
SUPERIOR (EARLY). 1000-850MB FLOW IS BASICALLY NORTH THRU THE                   
NIGHT...BACKING NNW LATE AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE HEADING DUE SOUTH FROM            
NORTHERN ONTARIO. AIRMASS IS PRETTY DRY THRU MOST OF THE NIGHT...               
WITH 850-700MB RH LEVELS BELOW 20 PERCENT ON LAKE MI...25-30 PERCENT            
ON HURON/SUPERIOR. NOT SURPRISINGLY...INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE QUITE               
LOW...AROUND 3K FEET/900MB. HOWEVER...WE WILL SEE A MOISTURE                    
INCREASE IN THE NORTH LATE THANKS TO THAT SHORTWAVE. BY 09Z...850-              
700MB RH LEVELS ARE RAMPING UP TO BETTER THAN 70 PERCENT OVER                   
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SUPERIOR. THE DRY AIRMASS AND LARGELY                      
UNFAVORABLE FETCH LEADS TO GO WITH JUST FLURRIES IN NORTH FLOW                  
SNOWBELTS IN THE EVENING...RAMPING UP TO A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW                 
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN WESTERN CHIPPEWA. FAR              
EASTERN UPPER MI...AND NORTH CENTRAL LOWER...WILL LIKELY STAY                   
RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE GIVEN THE NORTH FETCH...WITH CHILLY MIN TEMPS             
IN THE LOW/MID TEENS. CLOSER TO 20/LOWER 20S NEAR THE BEACHES.                  
SATURDAY...ARRIVAL OF BETTER MOISTURE AND A SECONDARY 850MB THERMAL             
TROF (850MB TEMPS AROUND -9C) WILL KEEP SCT SNOW SHOWERS GOING IN               
THE NW FLOW SNOWBELTS THRU THE MORNING AND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.                
850MB TEMPS WILL RAPIDLY REBOUND IN THE PM HOURS THOUGH...NEARING               
-5C OVER THE UPSTREAM LAKES BY 00Z...THUS SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CUT               
OFF LATER IN THE DAY. WARMING MAY BE TOO LATE TO HELP MAX TEMPS                 
MUCH...WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN WARMER MAV AND COOLER MET NUMBERS. SO            
MAX TEMPS GENERALLY AROUND 40F.                                                 
NO CHANGES TO LATER PERIODS. MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR A DRY PATTERN             
INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND....AS BROAD UPPER RIDGING GETS              
ESTABLISHED MID-CONUS. GFS BRINGS A SHOT OF MOISTURE INTO EASTERN               
UPPER SUNDAY NIGHT AS STRONGER WARM ADVECTION BEGINS. THE BULK OF               
THIS AFFECTS SUPERIOR AND NORTHWARD THOUGH AND WILL KEEP THINGS DRY             
FOR NOW.                                                                        
ZOLTOWSKI                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1000 AM EDT THU APR 6 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
PRIMARY CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE SKY COVER THROUGH MAJORITY OF AFTN               
AS SWATH OF MID LEVEL MOISUTURE (100MB THICK PER GRB 12Z SOUNDING)              
SLIDES ACROSS REGION. 300K SFC ON RUC/GFS INDICATE BY LATE AFTN DRY             
AIR OVR N MN WILL WORK INTO LK SUPERIOR HELPING TO DEVELOP SOME                 
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE IN THE CLOUD DECK. EVEN WITH THICK MID CLOUDS                
OVERHEAD...LOW LEVEL TEMPS ARE QUITE WARM (H9 TEMP OF +7C AT GRB) SO            
EVEN LIMITED MIXING SUPPORTS GOING FCST HIGHS UPR 40S INTO LWR 50S.             
WINDS BECOME NE/N LATE OVR FAR W CWA AS HIGH OVR CNTRL CANADA BEGINS            
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. FOR FAR W AREAS...TEMPS MAY TRY TO COOL               
SLIGHTLY AS WINDS BECOME ONSHORE LATE TODAY.                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT)...                                      
THE UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES            
BAY ON TONIGHT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WRAPPING AROUND THIS LOW WILL SWEEP            
INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO. 850MB-500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL SHIFT               
ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO. THE ENERGY WILL STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST              
AREA. THE NEBRASKA LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATION...HOWEVER...THE               
LOW WILL BECOME STRETCH OUT FROM NEBRASKA INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.            
THE CANADIAN HIGH WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. ANTI-CYCLONIC            
FLOW AHEAD OF THE CANADIAN RIDGE WILL BRING MORE DRY AIR INTO THE               
FORECAST AREA. AN 850MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS ONTARIO                
INTO LAKE SUPERIOR. DELTA-T'S ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL            
INCREASE TO 15C. THE NORTH WIND IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE HIGH                    
DELTA-T'S COULD PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN             
FAIRLY DRY WHICH SHOULD LIMIT SNOW PRODUCTION MAINLY ALONG THE LAKE             
SUPERIOR SNOW.                                                                  
THE CANADIAN MID LEVEL LOW WILL SWING INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC...WHILE              
PUSHING A SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. THE                       
SHORTWAVE WILL MERGE WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM WHICH WILL SLIP INTO              
OKLAHOMA. THE CANADIAN HIGH WILL SETTLE INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA                  
BLANKETING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE HIGH PUSH THE COLD FRONT            
THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.                        
ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP THE WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. DRY AIR            
OVER THE AREA WILL LIMIT SNOW SHOWERS. THE 850MB DELTA-T'S WILL                 
AROUND 13C.                                                                     
THE CANADIAN LOW WILL SWEEP INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC...WHILE BRINGING               
WEAK SHORTWAVES THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN AND LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY                 
NIGHT. THE CANADIAN SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT                
LAKES AND CONTINUE TO DRAW DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. THE DELTA-T'S               
OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DIMINISH TO 11C OVERNIGHT. THE                  
POSSIBILITY OF WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE LAKE                
SHORE OF THE EASTERN U.P. THUS WILL KEEP A MENTION OF GREAT LAKES               
HAVING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES SHOWERS WILL                  
DIMINISH. DRY AIR WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR.                                  
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP DRY AIR STABLE AIR THE FORECAST AREA            
THROUGH SUNDAY. ON SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW SHIFT INTO THE OHIO                
RIVER VALLEY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTH. THEN WARM                  
MOISTURE AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN INVADE THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH               
TUESDAY.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...JLA                                                                    
PREV DISCUSSION...DLG                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED MESOSCALE AND AVN DISCUSSION                 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
1008 PM CDT THU APR 6 2006                                                      
...TORNADO WATCH 159 IN EFFECT THROUGH 1 AM FRIDAY MORNING...                   
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...                                                        
A DRY LINE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHWESTERN                
IOWA EXTENDS SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. THUNDERSTORM CELLS ARE              
FORMING ALONG THIS LINE AS THE LINE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THROUGH              
THE EVENING. PRESENTLY...THE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO BE                         
WEAKENING. BUT RUC SOUNDINGS JUST AHEAD OF THAT DRY LINE SHOWING                
CAPES UP NEAR 2600 J/KG AND THE LINE IS STILL MOVING INTO AN AREA OF            
DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 DEGREES. AIRMASS MAY HAVE BEEN WORKED OVER WITH               
EARLIER PRECIPITATION...BUT WILL HAVE TO STRAY ON THE SAFE SIDE FOR             
ANOTHER FEW HOURS TO SEE IF THE LINE REGENERATES ANYTHING. CLEARED              
WESTERN ZONES OF THE TORNADO WATCH AS DEWPOINTS BEHIND THE DRYLINE              
IN THE MID TWENTIES STARTING TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO EXTREME                     
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SHOULD START MAKING IT INTO SOUTHWESTERN                   
MISSOURI AS WELL.                                                               
GCC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION UPDATE...                                                             
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OUT AHEAD OF               
THE ADVANCING DRYLINE.  STORMS WILL BE AFFECTING THE KJLN TERMINAL              
THROUGH 03Z AND THE KSGF TERMINAL THROUGH 04Z.  ONCE INITIAL LINE               
PASSES...EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND TO SOUTHWEST BUT STILL REMAIN             
GUSTY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.                                              
GAEDE                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...302 PM                                                       
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT):                                      
COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN EVOLVING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AT THIS TIME.            
CURRENT WAT VAP IMAGERY/RUC INITIALIZATION OF 500MB VORTICITY                   
INDICATES THAT THE LEAD SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE IS LIFTING THROUGH               
THE AREA. REGIONAL WSR 88D SHOWS THE ASSOCIATE COMPLEX OF SHRA/TSRA             
QUICKLY MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MO OZARKS. MEANWHILE...             
A VERY POTENT UPPER DISTURBANCE IS EMERGING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.            
AT THE SFC...THE DRYLINE HAS SET UP OVER CENTRAL KS/OK AND PER                  
LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY...A CU FIELD IS DEVELOPING ALONG/AHEAD THIS              
FEATURE.                                                                        
INSOFAR AS MOISTURE IS CONCERNED...THE TODAY'S RAINFALL HAS                     
MAINTAINED DECENT BL MOISTURE WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S SFC                   
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION. JUST TO THE WEST...WHERE PARTIAL                   
CLEARING HAS OCCURRED AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE               
LOW/MID 60S. THE LATEST RUC/NAM/GFS INDICATE THAT LOWER 60S WILL                
CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.                              
HEATING AND INSTABILITY HAVE BEEN LIMITED THUS FAR TODAY. OUR                   
RAINFALL HAS SUCCESSFULLY HELD TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER                    
70S...HOWEVER...OVER THE NEXT TWO HOURS THE COMPLEX OF SHRA/TSRA                
WILL EJECT TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST INTO E MO WILL SET UP A BRIEF BREAK            
IN THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED            
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE WESTERN                 
SECTIONS OF THE CWFA WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WARMING INTO THE MID TO               
UPPER 70S. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA WILL HAVE LITTLE TIME TO                
WARM UP AFTER RAINFALL EXITS AND MAY MAKE IT BACK TO AROUND 70.                 
ACCORDING TO SGF 15Z AND 18Z RAOBS...A RATHER STOUT CAP HAS BEEN                
WEAKENED A BIT. AFTER LOOKING AT THE 18Z RAOBS FROM TOP AND OUN                 
(ALONG WITH A 45-50 KT LLJ SURGING INTO THE REGION) I EXPECT A BRIEF            
REINVIGORATION OF THE CAP. INSTABILITY THUS FAR HAS BEEN A FEW                  
HUNDRED J/KG AND RATHER ELEVATED IN NATURE (ABOVE 700MB)...HOWEVER              
AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE PIVOTS TO THE EAST...LAPSE RATES WILL                  
STEEPEN AND MLCAPES WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG.                    
TREMENDOUS WIND ENERGY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...A 110KT                 
ULJ...A 90KT MID LEVEL JET...AND A 45KT LLJ. AS A RESULT...SHEAR IS             
HIGH. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS AROUND 75KTS...WITH 0-1KM SHEAR 20-30KTS.             
AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND                     
EVENING...THESE SHEAR VALUES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND                     
INTENSIFY.                                                                      
EXPECTATIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ARE THAT STORMS WILL RAPIDLY               
DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ALONG THE DRYLINE IN CENTRAL KS/OK AS THE                 
STRONG 90KT MID LEVEL JET NOSES INTO THIS AREA. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE              
AXIS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND STRONG 500MB HEIGHT FALLS AND SFC               
PRESSURE FALLS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION. PARTIAL CLEARING WILL                
HELP INCREASE TEMPS OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND WITH              
LOW 60S SFC DEWPOINTS...RESULT IN UP TO 1500 J/KG MLCAPE. SUPERCELLS            
ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL REMAIN DISCRETE AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA.               
TIMING WISE...OUR THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH. SE KS/W MO WILL BE             
AFFECTED BY STORMS ROUGHLY BETWEEN 6-9PM...THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR              
BETWEEN 7PM-12AM...AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BETWEEN 9PM AND             
2AM. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED AREA               
WIDE. AT THIS TIME...THE RISK FOR TORNADOES LOOKS GREATEST FOR AREAS            
ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR. THE TORNADO RISK FOR                 
AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 IS CONDITIONAL ON WHETHER OR NOT THESE                 
STORMS CAN REMAIN SURFACE BASED. GIVEN THAT THIS AREA WILL HAVE A               
MORE LIMITED OPPORTUNITY TO RECOVER BEHIND THE INITIAL WAVE OF                  
SHRA/TSRA MOVING THROUGH RIGHT NOW.                                             
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...THE COLD CORE UPPER LOW WILL SLOW MEANDER                 
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY. AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING IS                   
EXPECTED AND TEMPS SHOULD QUICKLY WARM INTO THE 70S. STEEP LAPSE                
RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE                    
UNSTABLE AND SCT TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON              
HOURS. WET BULB ZERO HGHTS WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE AND THESE STORMS             
WILL RUN THE RISK OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL                 
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING AND OUT OF THE AREA FRIDAY            
NIGHT. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AND LOWS WILL DROP              
INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S BY SAT MORNING.                                          
GAGAN                                                                           
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT):                                     
ON SATURDAY THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM FINALLY BEGINS TO FILL AND WEAKEN             
AS IT PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS.  MUCH            
COOLER HIGHS CAN BE EXPECTED AS NORTHEAST FLOW TRANSPORTS IN 850MB              
TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN 5 DEG C.  AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF NEAR ABOVE             
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE              
LIKELY.  WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...THERE IS CONCERN FOR                
FROST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS SUNDAY                  
MORNING.  EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER WHERE            
SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY PICK UP A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT.  LOWER 30S ARE                
POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI WHERE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER...AS             
THIS AREA WILL BE CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE.                        
THE UPPER FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM ZONAL ON SUNDAY...TO                        
SOUTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PUSHES INTO               
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A NICE WARMING                     
TREND...AS HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ARE LIKELY MONDAY             
AND TUESDAY.  GRIDS ARE DRY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  ADDED               
SOME LOW END CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT A FRONT AND UPPER            
SYSTEM APPROACH THE OZARKS REGION.  MOISTURE RETURN DOESN'T LOOK ALL            
THAT GREAT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...SO HELD OFF ON HIGHER POPS AT THIS             
TIME.                                                                           
SAW                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
WFO SGF                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSION                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
512 PM CDT THU APR 6 2006                                                       
...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND                     
TONIGHT...                                                                      
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...                                                        
SUPERCELLS ALONG DRYLINE OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA ARE PRODUCING                    
TORNADOES IN OSAGE COUNTY. CURRENT 20Z SGF SOUNDING IS FAIRLY STABLE            
SHOWING LITTLE CAPE AND A -430 CINH. BUT WHEN WE MODIFIED THE                   
SOUNDING WITH CURRENT SURFACE CONDITIONS OVER EASTERN KANSAS...CAPE             
EXPLODES TO ALMOST 2000 J/KG AND CINH DISAPPEARS. STILL HAVE A COUPLE           
HOURS OF HEATING...SO WE SHOULD GET CLOSE TO THE FORECAST SOUNDING              
OUTPUT. LAPS OUTPUT SHOWS TONGUE OF 1400+ J/KG SURFACE CAPES FROM               
NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI. NEODESHA NPN               
PROFILER SHOWS WINDS UP TO 75KTS AT 20K FEET WITH A 40KT SOUTHERLY              
LOW LEVEL JET RIGHT AROUND 5K FEET. HWO LOOKS GOOD WITH TORNADO                 
PROBABILITY FORECAST FOR OUR CWA. THE EVENT IS ABOUT TO GET GOING               
HERE IN AN HOUR OR SO.                                                          
GCC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...302 PM                                                       
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT):                                      
COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN EVOLVING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AT THIS TIME.            
CURRENT WAT VAP IMAGERY/RUC INITIALIZATION OF 500MB VORTICITY                   
INDICATES THAT THE LEAD SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE IS LIFTING THROUGH               
THE AREA. REGIONAL WSR 88D SHOWS THE ASSOCIATE COMPLEX OF SHRA/TSRA             
QUICKLY MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MO OZARKS. MEANWHILE...             
A VERY POTENT UPPER DISTURBANCE IS EMERGING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.            
AT THE SFC...THE DRYLINE HAS SET UP OVER CENTRAL KS/OK AND PER                  
LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY...A CU FIELD IS DEVELOPING ALONG/AHEAD THIS              
FEATURE.                                                                        
INSOFAR AS MOISTURE IS CONCERNED...THE TODAY'S RAINFALL HAS                     
MAINTAINED DECENT BL MOISTURE WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S SFC                   
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION. JUST TO THE WEST...WHERE PARTIAL                   
CLEARING HAS OCCURRED AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE               
LOW/MID 60S. THE LATEST RUC/NAM/GFS INDICATE THAT LOWER 60S WILL                
CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.                              
HEATING AND INSTABILITY HAVE BEEN LIMITED THUS FAR TODAY. OUR                   
RAINFALL HAS SUCCESSFULLY HELD TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER                    
70S...HOWEVER...OVER THE NEXT TWO HOURS THE COMPLEX OF SHRA/TSRA                
WILL EJECT TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST INTO E MO WILL SET UP A BRIEF BREAK            
IN THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED            
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE WESTERN                 
SECTIONS OF THE CWFA WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WARMING INTO THE MID TO               
UPPER 70S. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA WILL HAVE LITTLE TIME TO                
WARM UP AFTER RAINFALL EXITS AND MAY MAKE IT BACK TO AROUND 70.                 
ACCORDING TO SGF 15Z AND 18Z RAOBS...A RATHER STOUT CAP HAS BEEN                
WEAKENED A BIT. AFTER LOOKING AT THE 18Z RAOBS FROM TOP AND OUN                 
(ALONG WITH A 45-50 KT LLJ SURGING INTO THE REGION) I EXPECT A BRIEF            
REINVIGORATION OF THE CAP. INSTABILITY THUS FAR HAS BEEN A FEW                  
HUNDRED J/KG AND RATHER ELEVATED IN NATURE (ABOVE 700MB)...HOWEVER AS           
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE PIVOTS TO THE EAST...LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN             
AND MLCAPES WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG.                            
TREMENDOUS WIND ENERGY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...A 110KT                 
ULJ...A 90KT MID LEVEL JET...AND A 45KT LLJ. AS A RESULT...SHEAR IS             
HIGH. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS AROUND 75KTS...WITH 0-1KM SHEAR 20-30KTS.             
AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND                     
EVENING...THESE SHEAR VALUES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND                     
INTENSIFY.                                                                      
EXPECTATIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ARE THAT STORMS WILL RAPIDLY               
DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ALONG THE DRYLINE IN CENTRAL KS/OK AS THE                 
STRONG 90KT MID LEVEL JET NOSES INTO THIS AREA. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE              
AXIS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND STRONG 500MB HEIGHT FALLS AND SFC               
PRESSURE FALLS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION. PARTIAL CLEARING WILL                
HELP INCREASE TEMPS OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND WITH              
LOW 60S SFC DEWPOINTS...RESULT IN UP TO 1500 J/KG MLCAPE. SUPERCELLS            
ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL REMAIN DISCRETE AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA.               
TIMING WISE...OUR THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH. SE KS/W MO WILL BE             
AFFECTED BY STORMS ROUGHLY BETWEEN 6-9PM...THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR              
BETWEEN 7PM-12AM...AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BETWEEN 9PM AND             
2AM. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED AREA               
WIDE. AT THIS TIME...THE RISK FOR TORNADOES LOOKS GREATEST FOR AREAS            
ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR. THE TORNADO RISK FOR                 
AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 IS CONDITIONAL ON WHETHER OR NOT THESE                 
STORMS CAN REMAIN SURFACE BASED. GIVEN THAT THIS AREA WILL HAVE A               
MORE LIMITED OPPORTUNITY TO RECOVER BEHIND THE INITIAL WAVE OF                  
SHRA/TSRA MOVING THROUGH RIGHT NOW.                                             
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...THE COLD CORE UPPER LOW WILL SLOW MEANDER THROUGH         
THE AREA DURING THE DAY. AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED AND              
TEMPS SHOULD QUICKLY WARM INTO THE 70S. STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED            
WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE UNSTABLE AND SCT TSRA               
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WET BULB ZERO               
HGHTS WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE AND THESE STORMS WILL RUN THE RISK OF             
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST               
DURING THE EVENING AND OUT OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHERLY FLOW             
WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AND LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S             
BY SAT MORNING.                                                                 
GAGAN                                                                           
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT):                                     
ON SATURDAY THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM FINALLY BEGINS TO FILL AND WEAKEN             
AS IT PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS.  MUCH            
COOLER HIGHS CAN BE EXPECTED AS NORTHEAST FLOW TRANSPORTS IN 850MB              
TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN 5 DEG C.  AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF NEAR ABOVE             
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE              
LIKELY.  WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...THERE IS CONCERN FOR                
FROST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS SUNDAY                  
MORNING.  EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER WHERE            
SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY PICK UP A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT.  LOWER 30S ARE                
POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI WHERE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER...AS             
THIS AREA WILL BE CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE.                        
THE UPPER FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM ZONAL ON SUNDAY...TO                        
SOUTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PUSHES INTO               
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A NICE WARMING                     
TREND...AS HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ARE LIKELY MONDAY             
AND TUESDAY.  GRIDS ARE DRY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  ADDED               
SOME LOW END CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT A FRONT AND UPPER            
SYSTEM APPROACH THE OZARKS REGION.  MOISTURE RETURN DOESN'T LOOK ALL            
THAT GREAT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...SO HELD OFF ON HIGHER POPS AT THIS             
TIME.                                                                           
SAW                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
THE BULK OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON               
WILL PASS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE JOPLIN AND SPRINGFIELD               
TERMINALS  AFTER THIS WAVE OF PRECIPITATION PUSHES OFF TO THE                   
EAST...THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK OF SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE STRONG/SEVERE            
CONVECTION MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. DID TWEAK TIMING BACK AND HOUR OR            
TWO...WHICH STILL MIGHT NOT BE ENOUGH AS THE DRYLINE IS STILL WEST              
OF ICT.  IT IS LOOKING NOW AS IF THE BEST CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL                  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AFTER 00Z.                                                
SAW                                                                             
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
WFO SGF                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
830 PM CDT THU APR 6 2006                                                       
FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS WIND HEADLINES...PCPN AND TEMPERATURES.             
WINDS THIS EVENING HAVE STRUGGLED TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA AND                
WITH LOSS OF HEATING DO NOT FEEL WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY              
AS STRONGEST CORE OF WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OF BORDER. WILL CANCEL                 
CURRENT WIND ADVISORY WITH UPDATE.                                              
BAND OF SHRA OVER NE SD/FAR SE ND SHRINKING AND WILL CONTINUE TREND             
OF ENDING PCPN AROUND MIDNIGHT AS RUC PUSHES DRYING THROUGH COLUMN              
TO BORDER AREA BY 06Z. LIGHTNING ALSO ON THE WANE WITH NO RECENT                
HITS OVER SE ND. SO FAR PCPN HAS BEEN VERY LIGHT WITH AMOUNTS <.10              
ALONG DAKOTAS BORDER.                                                           
COLD ADVECTION TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND IN SPITE OF WIND HOLDING UP            
AND SOME CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL DRYING SHOULD                
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL BLO FREEZING MOST AREAS. AT THIS TIME            
TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
REFER TO BISFLSFGF PRODUCTS ON OUR HOME PAGE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION            
ON THE ONGOING FLOODING IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND ASSOCIATED                  
TRIBUTARIES.  NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LATE MONDAY INTO             
TUESDAY.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS FOR ALL COUNTIES IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY              
UNTIL FRIDAY.                                                                   
MN...AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS FOR ALL COUNTIES IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY              
UNTIL FRIDAY.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
VOELKER                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   nd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
910 PM MDT THU APR 6 2006                                                       
.DISCUSSION...VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER CENTRAL NE PER             
WATER VAPOUR LOOP. SURFACE LOW NEAR KOFK. STRONG LIFT CONTINUES WITH            
LARGE CIRCULATION...SPREADING PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE CWA                
THIS EVENING. 00Z NAM/RUC CONTINUES THESE CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...               
SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS. PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO             
TIGHTEN WITH 35-50KT 850MB WINDS FORECAST FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS              
THE SD PLAINS. CURRENT WIND HEADLINES IN GOOD SHAPE.                            
CALLS TO SPOTTERS IN THE HILLS INDICATE CHANGEOVER OCCURRING ABOVE              
4500 FEET...BUT LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY SURFACES. ROADS             
JUST WET SO FAR. CHANGEOVER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT WARMISH               
TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS OF THIS SYSTEM.                 
HOWEVER...2 TO 6 INCHES STILL IN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES AS                  
FROUDE NUMBERS APPROACH 1 LATER TONIGHT...SUGGESTING SOME UPSLOPE               
POTENTIAL. LOCAL AMOUNTS MAY BE HIGHER ABOVE 5500 FEET...WITH LESSER            
AMOUNTS BELOW 4500. ON THE WY PLAINS AND ADJACENT SD PLAINS...MINOR             
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.                                                         
MAIN CHANGE TO UPDATE WAS TO LINGER PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTH                  
LONGER AND STRONGER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. REST             
OF FORECAST CHANGES TWEAKS.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.UNR...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NRN/CTL BLACK HILLS UNTIL 15Z              
     FRI.                                                                       
     WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SD PLAINS UNTIL 15Z FRI.                             
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WY BLACK HILLS UNTIL 15Z FRI.              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HELGESON                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
245 PM MDT THU APR 6 2006                                                       
.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING BROAD UPPER LOW ACROSS                
EASTERN WYOMING NOW SLIDING SOUTHEAST INTO NEBRASKA. SURFACE                    
ANALYSIS SHOWING LOW PRES NOW OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH A SURFACE              
TROUGH STRETCHING ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE CWA. THIS TROUGH HAS                 
REMAINED OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...AND HAS BEEN THE               
FOCUS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY. TONIGHT...PRECIP ACROSS THE NRN             
HALF OF THE CWA WILL FINALLY BEGIN SLIDING SOUTH AS DYNAMICS                    
CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH ALONG THE BACK END OF THE UPPER LOW. RUC                
850-700 MUCAPE HAS DONE RELATIVELY WELL TODAY SHOWING LOCATION OF               
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. IT ALSO SHOWS BULK OF CONVECTION                     
TRANSITIONING TO THE SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.              
LATEST OBS SHOWING NEAR ADVISORY WINDS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THESE               
STRONGER WINDS WILL ALSO SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE            
GRADIENT INCREASES. MAV AND MOS HAVE HAD FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON               
WINDS REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS...SO WILL            
ISSUE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 15Z TOMORROW. AS THE N/NE WINDS INCREASE              
AND COOLER AIR BEGINS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE HILLS...UPSLOPE                  
ENHANCED PRECIP WILL DEVELOP. GFS CONTINUES TO TREND WITH WARMER                
TEMPS AT 700 MB TONIGHT KEEPING SNOW ACCUM TOTALS TO JUST 4 INCHES.             
ON THE OTHER HAND...ETA STILL WANTS TO BRING COOLER AIR TO THE AREA             
WHICH WOULD BRING UP TO A FOOT OF SNOW IN THE HILLS TONIGHT. TEMPS              
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ARE NOW IN THE MID 30S...SO IT WONT TAKE               
LONG TO REACH FREEZING TONIGHT. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH 3-6 INCH                   
WORDING FOR THE HILLS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ABOVE 5500 FEET.              
THEREFORE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED TONIGHT FOR NRN/CTL            
BLACK HILLS AND ALSO WY BLACK HILLS.                                            
A DRYING TREND WILL BE THE STORY TOMORROW. DRY AIR WILL QUICKLY MOVE            
ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.             
MOST OF THE PRECIP ACROSS WRN SD SHOULD BE ENDING BY MID                        
MORNING...WITH SOUTHERN ZONES CLEARING OUT AROUND NOON. WINDS ARE               
ALSO EXPECTED TO REACH BELOW CRITERIA THRESHOLD BY MID MORNING. WARM            
AIR WILL ADVECT IN SATURDAY AND REBOUND OUR TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 60S            
TO LOWER 70S. SAT NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE             
CWA GIVING THE AREA A LITTLE QPF. GFS HAD THIS FEATURE ACROSS                   
CENTRAL MT YESTERDAY...SO DECIDED AGAINST PUTTING POPS IN UNTIL                 
SOMETHING CONSISTENT IS SEEN. FOR NOW...JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS                
POSSIBLE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE.                                                   
EXTENDED...UPR RIDGE ON SUNDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SW FLOW              
MONDAY AS NEXT TROF APPROACHES THE NRN PLAINS. LOW POPS STILL LK                
REASONABLE FOR MON THRU EARLY TUE EVENING. AN UPR RIDGE WL BRIEFLY              
BUILD INTO THE REGION WED BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER TROF MOVES INTO                 
GREAT BASIN BRINGING SW FLOW ALOFT AGAIN ON THURS AND FRI WITH                  
ANOTHER LOW CHANCE FOR PCPN FM LATE WED NIGHT INTO FRI. TEMPS LOOK              
TO REMAIN AT OR ABV SEASONAL NORMS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY                  
BEFORE BEGINNING TO COOL OFF ON FRIDAY.                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...CONDITIONS ACRS WRN SD/ WRN NEB AND WRN ND WILL BEGIN TO            
DETERIORATE LATE THIS AFT WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS DUE TO CLDS/PCPN AFT               
22Z AS WIDESPREAD PCPN DVLPS ACRS THIS AREA. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN              
TO IMPROVE AFTER 15Z FRIDAY.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.UNR...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NRN/CTL BLACK HILLS UNTIL 15Z              
     FRI.                                                                       
  ...WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SD PLAINS UNTIL 15Z FRI.                             
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WY BLACK HILLS UNTIL 15Z FRI.              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CALDERON/CZEPYHA                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
1040 AM MDT THU APR 6 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWING TROUGH STRETCHING              
FROM THE FAR SERN ZONES ACROSS THE HILLS AND INTO NE WY. SRN HALF OF            
THE CWA HAS GOTTEN DRY SLOTTED THIS MORNING WHILE THE NRN HALF HAS              
SEEN PLENTY OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.                 
THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE HAD SMALL CONCENTRATED CORES WHICH HAVE                
LIKELY BEEN DROPPING SMALL HAIL. MUCAPE SUGGESTS SCT ELEVATED                   
TSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS NWRN SD. AS               
DYNAMICS BEGIN TO SHIFT SWRD LATER THIS AFTN...SHOWERS AND                      
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH                
NEAR AND ALONG THE SD/NE BORDER. RUC HAS EASED OFF WITH SURFACE CAPE            
IN THIS AREA SINCE STRATUS DECK IS NOW KEEPING THIS AREA COOLER THAN            
FORECASTED. SO THE EXPECTED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON OVER SC SD                
WILL LIKELY ALSO BE ELEVATED IN NATURE. BIG QUESTION IS HOW SOON                
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN ZONES. 88D SHOWING                   
SHOWERS ALREADY DEVELOPING WRN/CTRL PENNINGTON...SO COULD BE SOONER             
THAN LATER.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...TSTMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACRS THE SD PLAINS THRU 20Z               
WITH SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS POSS. CONDITIONS ACRS WRN SD/              
WRN NEB AND WRN ND WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE LATE THIS AFT WITH                 
IFR/MVFR CIGS DUE TO CLDS/PCPN AFT 22Z AS WIDESPREAD PCPN DVLPS ACRS            
THIS AREA. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 15Z FRIDAY.                   
&&                                                                              
.UNR...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
SD...NONE.                                                                      
WY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CALDERON/CZEPYHA                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
1039 AM CDT THU APR 6 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH ACROSS               
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH REDEVELOPMENT ALREADY NOTED ACROSS CENTRAL             
SOUTH DAKOTA. HAVE HAD A COUPLE OF SEVERE HAIL REPORTS SO FAR WITH              
THIS SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION. LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 800HPA AND              
500HPA REMAIN QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG UPDRAFTS...WITH GOOD UPPER             
LEVEL DIVERGENCE NOTED IN LATEST RUC DATASET THROUGH 18Z ACROSS THE             
CENTRAL AND WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT VORT LOBE IN WATER VAPOR            
IMAGERY THAT COULD POTENTIALLY INDUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF CENTRAL                  
NEBRASKA TO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIFTING            
NORTHEAST INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 9 HOURS.               
THE WIND ADVISORY STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AS A POTENT BACKDOOR COLD                
FRONT DROPS SOUTH OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA THIS                
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 925HPA CAA TO THE TUNE OF ABOUT 15 DEGREES               
CELSIUS IN 12 HOURS BETWEEN 00Z FRIDAY AND 12Z FRIDAY...WITH A                  
STRONG 3 AND 6-HOURLY ISALLOBARIC WIND COMPONENT TO BOOT. MAY HAVE              
TO NUDGE THE START TIME UP A COUPLE HOURS IF LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE               
PANS OUT.    DORN                                                               
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT                                       
THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FACING THE NEAR TERM DEALS WITH PCPN COVERAGE             
AND TYPE TODAY THRU TONIGHT. CURRENTLY MODELS ARE TAKING 5H LOW                 
FURTHER TO SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT..AND -TSRA JUST NOW                    
REACHING FAR SW CWA. LATEST DAY1 OUTLOOK FROM SPC JUST CLIPS FAR                
SERN CWA. BEST INSTABILITY OCCURS THRU MORNING ACROSS SRN TO SE CWA             
WITH RESPECTABLE 7H-5H LAPSE RATES FROM 6 TO 7 DEGREES C. NAM MOST              
UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES REACH 500 J/KG BY 18Z WITH BEST LI'S AROUND -1.            
BY 00Z FRIDAY THESE VALUES FALL OFF DRAMATICALLY AS DRY AIR BEGINS              
TO PUSH IN FROM NORTH. FOR NORTHERN COUNTIES...QUESTION REMAINS ON              
WHEN CONVECTIVE PCPN WILL PHASE OVER TO STRATIFORM TYPE AS 85H AND              
7H TROWAL FEATURES TAKE OVER. THESE ALSO BOTH SLIP RAPIDLY SOUTH BY             
00Z AS SFC AND 5H LOWS TAKE MORE SOUTHERLY ROUTE. ALSO WELL                     
PRONOUNCED DRY PUNCH NOW ADVECTING THROUGH WRN NEB/WRN SD WITH SAT              
PIC SHOWING CLEAR SKIES. KEPT HIGHEST PROBABILITY PCPN TO THE                   
SOUTHERN/WESTERN COUNTIES DURING DAY...TAPERING CHCS DOWN TO THE NE             
PART OF CWA.                                                                    
NEXT CONCERN IS WINDS TONIGHT. AS LOW SLOWLY SLIPS SOUTH...STRONG               
HIGH BUILDS IN FROM NORTH. MAV GUIDANCE SHOWING SUSTAINED WINDS AT              
OR ABOVE 30KTS FOR MANY PLACES. GIVEN STRENGTH OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND             
EXITING SYSTEM AND CAA TAKING PLACE..SEE NO REASON TO DISCOUNT. WILL            
ISSUE A WIND ADVRY FOR ALL CWA FROM 00Z TO 12Z FRIDAY. THIS MAY BE A            
LITTLE LONG TIME WISE...BUT WOULD RATHER RUN LONG THAN HAVE LATER               
SHIFTS EXTEND ADVRY FOR AN HOUR OR TWO TO COVER. CLEARING EXPECTED              
RAPIDLY TONIGHT AND TRENDED POPS QUICKLY OUT OF CWA OVERNIGHT.                  
REMAINDER OF NEAR TERM QUIET. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND WAA RETURNS TO               
CWA BY SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS DO PROG ANOTHER WAVE PASSING THROUGH            
CWA SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT LITTLE SEEN IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE WITH                
FEATURE. MIGHT BE A FEW ACCAS AS IT PASSES OVERHEAD BUT DON'T EXPECT            
MUCH MORE THAN THAT.                                                            
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY                                           
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD. IT STARTS OFF WITH A               
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE                
PASSING TO THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT. A BROAD...AND RATHER FLAT...UPPER            
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. ON SUNDAY. THE RIDGE WILL DRIFT             
EAST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MAKES PROGRESS ACROSS              
THE WESTERN CONUS. MODELS AGREE THAT THIS UPPER TROUGH AND ITS                  
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS                   
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT                  
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED THE                     
STRENGTH/TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. MODELS DO VARY              
IN THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER. WENT WITH A               
MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.                                 
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...WIND ADVISORY 00Z FRIDAY TO 12Z FRIDAY ALL COUNTIES.                       
MN...WIND ADVISORY 00Z FRIDAY TO 12Z FRIDAY FOR BIG STONE AND                   
TRAVERSE COUNTIES.                                                              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HINTZ/KNUTSVIG                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX                                             
1026 AM CDT THU APR 6 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WE ARE EXPANDING THE HIGH WIND WARNING SOUTH. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL             
BE TRANSMITTED SOON.                                                            
A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WIND/WILDFIRE EVENT APPEARS TO BE                     
COMMENCING OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION. THIS GIVEN THE ONSET OF HIGH           
WIND CRITERIA WINDS AND RED FLAG CONDITIONS DURING THE 9 AM HOUR.               
SATELLITE/RADAR DATA HAS ALREADY DEPICTED EVIDENCE OF BLOWING DUST              
AND A FIRE IN EASTERN LYNN COUNTY.                                              
THE WHITE SANDS PROFILER IS DEPICTING 70KT 700MB WINDS. THIS IS                 
STRONGER THAN NAM/RUC SOLUTIONS...AND SUPPORTS AN INCREASED HIGH                
WIND THREAT FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS IS ADDITIONALLY SUPPORTED              
BY CURRENT WEST TEXAS MESONET OBS THAT ALREADY SHOW SEVERE/NEAR SEVERE          
WINDS IN THOSE ZONES.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 342 AM CDT THU APR 6 2006)                          
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
UPPER LOW NEAR THE 4-CORNERS CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST WITH                 
PACIFIC COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS             
MORNING. EFFICIENT MIXING SHOULD OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT WITH CLEAR              
SKIES AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED. 700 MB JET MAX EJECTS SOUTH OF            
OUR AREA...BUT BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE A SECONDARY MAXIMA OVER            
THE SOUTH PLAINS AT MIDDAY. GRADIENT AND MAGNITUDE OF WINDS THAT                
WILL GET MIXED DOWN SUGGEST SEVERE WIND GUSTS A DISTINCT                        
PROBABILITY...PARTICULARLY ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN                 
SOUTH PLAINS. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS WITH ITS SLIGHTLY HIGHER WIND            
SPEED POTENTIAL GIVEN ITS BETTER INITIALIZATION OF MID AND UPPER                
LEVEL WINDS OVER THE SWRN CONUS. WILL THUS UPGRADE THE HIGH WIND                
WATCH TO A WARNING AND EXPAND THE INHERITED ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE             
SERN THREE COUNTIES AS WELL. DO NOT HAVE A GOOD FEEL FOR BLOWING                
DUST POTENTIAL GIVEN RECENT RAINS...BEGINNING OF SOME VEGETATIVE                
GROWTH AND THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION THAT IS NOT USUALLY FAVORABLE              
FOR A SIGNIFICANT DUST EVENT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SOME LOCAL              
AREAS WITH DUST PROBLEMS...BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN WIDESPREAD            
SUB-1 MILE VISIBILITY TO ISSUE A BLOWING DUST ADVISORY ATTM.                    
REMAINDER OF THE FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AS WELL. DOWNSLOPING WILL                
SOMEWHAT OFFSET COLD ADVECTION...BUT THE COLD ADVECTION WILL STILL              
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KNOCK AROUND 10 DEGREES OR MORE OFF OF                      
YESTERDAYS HIGHS. WINDS WILL DROP OFF SOME NEAR SUNSET BUT WILL                 
LIKELY STAY UP IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH MOST OF THE NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL               
GRADIENT STAYS TIGHT AND FULL DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER LOOKS            
UNLIKELY.                                                                       
LONG TERM...                                                                    
TIGHTLY WOUND STORM SYSTEM CENTERED OVER EASTERN KANSAS 12Z FRI                 
PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH SOUTHEAST TWD ARK/LA/TEX DURING THE                       
DAY...THUS MAINTAINING A STRONG H85-70 GRADIENT ACROSS NORTHERN                 
WEST TEXAS. SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...DEEP MIXING WILL AGAIN                      
COMMENCE WITH NORTHWEST SFC WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30 MPH WITH                  
GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. ATTM...WINDSPEEDS              
LOOK TO BE JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA LEVEL OVER THE SOUTHEAST                
TX PANHANDLE...WITH BEST CHC OF RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA OVER THE              
SOUTHWEST CWFA DUE TO LOW RH/S. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS EVALUATE FOR              
POSSIBLE WIND/FIRE WATCHES AND WARNINGS.                                        
VERY NICE WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND AS H50 RIDGE BUILDS INTO               
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL ON                  
SUNDAY. MINOR WAVE TO TRANSLATE MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY                 
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS.                  
AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT OF KEEPING POPS ONLY AT 10 PERCENT DUE                
TO LACK OF MOISTURE.                                                            
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM STILL FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE DESERT              
SOUTHWEST BY MID WEEK. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST...MAY SEE AN                   
INCREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY BY LATE THURS OR FRIDAY.                              
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
EXPECT THAT RED FLAG CRITERIA SHOULD EASILY BE MET TODAY WITH                   
POTENTIAL FOR EXTREMELY CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH               
GIVEN EXPECTED MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS. ONLY CONCERN IS IF DEW POINTS            
STAY ABOUT 5 DEGREES HIGHER THAN EXPECTED. HUMIDITY VALUES WOULD                
THEN BE MARGINAL BUT THIS SITUATION WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE STRONG                
WINDS REGARDLESS. RED FLAG WARNING WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED.                       
&&                                                                              
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:                  
BAILEY...BRISCOE...CASTRO...COCHRAN...CROSBY...FLOYD...GARZA...                 
HALE...HOCKLEY...LAMB...LUBBOCK...LYNN...PARMER...SWISHER...                    
TERRY...AND YOAKUM.                                                             
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:                   
BAILEY...BRISCOE...CASTRO...CHILDRESS...COCHRAN...COTTLE...                     
CROSBY...DICKENS...FLOYD...GARZA...HALE...HALL...HOCKLEY...                     
KENT...KING...LAMB...LUBBOCK...LYNN...MOTLEY...PARMER...                        
STONEWALL...SWISHER...TERRY...AND YOAKUM.                                       
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:                      
CHILDRESS...COTTLE...DICKENS...HALL...KENT...KING...MOTLEY...AND                
STONEWALL.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
08/20                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
237 PM CDT THU APR 6 2006                                                       
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT                                      
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT AND INTO               
FRIDAY MORNING...THEN TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEEKEND.                             
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER            
COLORADO AND WYOMING...AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER HUDSON BAY.                  
LATEST 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATING SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN                
NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WARM FRONT EXTENDED SOUTHEAST                
FROM SURFACE LOW INTO SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. LATEST               
MOSAIC RADAR INDICATING SHOWERS EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS BACK            
INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO 850MB WARM FRONT                 
AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...AS INDICATED BY THE LATEST 18Z PROFILER              
DATA BETWEEN WOOD LAKE MINNESOTA...BLUE RIVER WISCONSIN AND SLATER              
IOWA.                                                                           
LATEST 12Z THURSDAY NAM AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH               
INITIALIZATION OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WYOMING AND COLORADO PER              
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. OVERALL...BOTH MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD                
AGREEMENT IN MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS INTO               
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES BY 00Z SATURDAY...AND QUICKLY MOVING                 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER HUDSON BAY SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES                   
REGION. CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST IS MODERATE.                                     
TONIGHT...SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND CENTRAL KANSAS                 
DEEPENS RAPIDLY OVER NORTHEASTERN KANSAS BY 12Z FRIDAY WITH WARM                
FRONT EXTENDING EAST INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER             
HUDSON BAY WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL               
ALLOW FOR A VERY NARROW DEFORMATION BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP            
ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. WITHIN THIS               
BAND...BOTH THE 12Z THURSDAY NAM AND GFS INDICATING STRONG AND DEEP             
QG FORCING OVER THIS AREA...AND TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS INDICATING           
CLOSE TO 20 UBAR/KM OF VERTICAL MOTION OVER NORTHEAST IOWA BETWEEN              
09Z AND 12Z. WITH THIS FORCING IN MIND...LOOKING AT RAINFALL                    
AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND EXTREME                  
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THIS WOULD RESULT IN MINOR RISES ALONG AREA                
RIVERS AT THIS TIME ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST                 
WISCONSIN. LATEST RUC INDICATING 500-1000 J/KG OF 0-6KM MOST UNSTABLE           
CAPE ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA THROUGH 03Z FRIDAY...THOUGH BEST SHEAR IS            
LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA. FEEL                
THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO CONTINUE WARRANT ISOLATED                        
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO                 
MENTION.                                                                        
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL PUSH SURFACE LOW                
FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY 18Z FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW            
FOR STRONG VERTICAL MOTION TO MOVE SOUTH AND FOR SURFACE RIDGE WITH             
GOOD SUBSIDENCE TO BUILD INTO FORECAST AREA BY 00Z SATURDAY. BOTH               
MODELS INDICATING GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTING INTO THE FORECAST AREA                
LATE FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. TREND OF COOLER TEMPERATURES AND             
DECREASING CLOUDS ARE HANDLED WELL WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.                      
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT AND              
SUNDAY. FORECAST AREA UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND AT SURFACE.                
COMBINED WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT              
LAKES REGION. FORECAST AREA WILL SEE TEMPERATURES REBOUND AND BE                
CLOSER TO NORMAL SUNDAY.                                                        
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY                                            
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE TIMING PRECIPITATION CHANCES MIDDLE OF               
NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE 00Z THURSDAY ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD               
AGREEMENT THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...THEN BEGIN TO DIFFER ON TIMING OF               
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FOR MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FEEL THE 00Z              
THURSDAY GFS A LITTLE TOO FAST WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHILE THE                
00Z THURSDAY CANADIAN IS IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. WILL LEAN                
MORE TOWARD A SLOWER ECMWF AND CANADIAN SOLUTION. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH            
DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH PERIOD. THIS WILL AMPLIFY UPPER           
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. SHORTWAVE TROUGH                  
EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS             
BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. DECENT MOISTURE AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED             
WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO               
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY               
NIGHT. HAVE REMOVED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO               
SLOWER TREND OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND BEST FORCING WEST OF FORECAST              
AREA. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD WARM AIR TO               
ADVECT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.           
THIS ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INTO MIDDLE OF             
NEXT WEEK.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DTJ                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
400 AM EDT FRI APR 7 2006                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
OUR MAIN SHORT TERM FCST CHALLENGE IS TO DETERMINE OUR PROBABILITIES            
FOR RAIN AND CONVECTION TODAY. WE ALSO NEED TO EVALUATE POTENTIAL               
FOR ANY SNOW THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.                                  
RAIN FINALLY MOVED INTO OUR AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT ONCE THE WARM FRONT             
MOVED CLOSER AND THE ATMOSPHERE IN THE LOWER LEVELS FINALLY                     
MOISTENED UP. RGNL RADAR TRENDS AND 00Z GUIDANCE QPF SUGGESTS RAIN              
WILL BECOME STEADIER AND CONTINUE ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN               
CWA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH JUST A CHC OF LIGHTER RAIN                  
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FAR NNE COUNTIES.                                            
POTENTIAL REMAINS HIGH FOR A STEADY F-GEN RAIN BAND OF MODERATE                 
INTENSITY TO SET UP RIGHT OVER OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA AND                 
REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THIS IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO OCCUR.               
THIS FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED RAIN BAND WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION                
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP DUE TO STRONG MID LEVEL (AROUND 700 MB)                
INSTABILITY AND 700 MB F VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND RESULTING LIFT WHICH            
WILL BECOME QUITE VIGOROUS. THE SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE LOWER              
LEVELS REALLY TIGHTENS UP THROUGH THE DAY AND WE WILL HAVE NICE                 
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE NORTH OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. A GFS TIME HEIGHT                 
X-SECTION SHOWS DEEP MOISTURE (> 90%) WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF              
THIS AFTN (ALTHOUGH NNE SFC WINDS WILL ADVECT DRIER AIR IN NEAR THE             
SFC). OVERALL THOUGH TIME HEIGHT RH PROGS AND FCST SOUNDINGS APPEAR             
FAVORABLE FOR RAIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON CENTRAL AND                
SOUTH.                                                                          
SNOW POTENTIAL WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS F-GEN BAND ACROSS OUR                 
CENTRAL CWA HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT DUE TO A COMBINATION OF TIMING               
AND STRENGTH OF CAA. LATEST 13KM RUC GUIDANCE SHOWS P-TYPE TO BE ALL            
RAIN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE NUMBERS ALSO                 
GENERALLY SHOW PCPN WILL FALL IN LIQUID FORM MOST OF THE AFTERNOON              
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MKG TO MOP. NAM GUIDANCE IS LIKELY A LITTLE TOO            
AGGRESSIVE IN HOW QUICKLY IT LOWERS 1000-850 MB CRITICAL THICKNESS              
VALUES. RAIN SHOWERS WILL MIX WITH THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS             
FAR NORTH THIS AFTN. SOME SNOW FLAKES MAY BECOME MIXED IN WITH RAIN             
ACROSS OUR CENTRAL CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON... BUT FOR ALL INTENTS               
AND PURPOSES... I NOW EXPECT P-TYPE TO BE MAINLY RAIN WITH THE MAIN             
F-GEN BAND.                                                                     
WE WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG WITH THE RAIN             
TODAY CENTRAL AND SOUTH DUE TO STRENGTH OF 700 MB F-GEN... MID LEVEL            
INSTABILITY... AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AS THE NORTHERN STREAM H5            
TROF SWINGS IN FROM THE NW. I BELIEVE SCATTERED AREAS OF ELEVATED               
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WI ARE LIKELY A HARBINGER OF THINGS             
TO COME FOR OUR AREA A BIT LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.              
THE ELEVATED CONVECTION OFF TO OUR WEST IS ALSO BEING AIDED BY                  
TREMENDOUS UPPER DIVERGENCE. THIS ACTIVITY COULD ALSO BE AIDED A BIT            
BY TILTING AND STRETCHING OF 500-300 MB VORTICITY (I.E. DEFORMATION             
ZONE) IN BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL                   
SYSTEMS LATER TODAY. THEREFORE I BELIEVE IT IS WISE TO INCLUDE                  
MENTION OF CONVECTION TO TODAY/S FCST FOR OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN              
CWA. I DO NOT EXPECT ANY SVR WX SINCE THE HAIL THREAT WITH THIS                 
ELEVATED CONVECTION IS MINIMAL DUE TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (700-500            
MB) OF ONLY 5-6 DEGREES C/KM.                                                   
THE FCST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS MUCH MORE                
STRAIGHTFORWARD. LINGERING LIGHT PCPN THIS EVENING (MAINLY SOUTH)               
WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END AS NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT               
DRIER AIR INTO OUR AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WX SATURDAY            
AND PRODUCE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES (A SCT STRATOCU DECK SHOULD            
DEVELOP LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM CU                   
SCHEME). MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW TO MID 40S                  
FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS SKIES                 
CLEAR AND WINDS GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE              
WILL PRODUCE A LOT OF SUN WITH MILDER TEMPS FOR SUNDAY.                         
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A LARGE                   
SURFACE HIGH SLIPPING OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS               
RESULTS IS A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES               
REGION AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. WE SHOULD BE AROUND 60 FOR HIGHS            
ON MONDAY AND WELL INTO THE 60S ON TUESDAY. ACTUALLY THE POTENTIAL              
EXISTS TO REACH INTO THE 70S ON TUESDAY AS MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW               
LEVEL JET WILL BE QUITE STRONG IN BETWEEN THE EAST COAST RIDGE AND              
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING IN THE PLAINS.                                            
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL BEGINS TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT              
AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM                   
APPROACHES AND A SHORTWAVE MOVES ENE FROM THE NRN PLAINS. THE                   
SURFACE FRONT LOOKS TO SLOW/STALL OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND             
THURSDAY AND EVENTUALLY BECOME ORIENTED IN MORE OF A WEST TO EAST               
FASHION AS THE UPPER FLOW TAKES ON A MORE ZONAL STRUCTURE. THIS                 
PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWER              
AND THUNDERSTORMS EPISODES LATE NEXT WEEK WITH GENERALLY MILD                   
CONDITIONS PREVAILING.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NEARSHORE               
WATERS ST. JOSEPH TO MANISTEE 8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT.                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LAURENS MEADE                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
332 AM EDT FRI APR 7 2006                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE ARE WITH THE WINDS                 
TODAY AND THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.                                  
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/NAM SHOWING DEEP LOWS OVER NORTHEAST                
KANSAS AND OVER SOUTHERN JAMES BAY...WITH A RIDGE SEPARATING THESE              
EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH WISCONSIN...INTO NORTH             
DAKOTA. ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH                 
MONTANA INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A LOW              
OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS EAST FROM THIS LOW            
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. A FRONT ALSO               
RUNS WEST FROM THE NEBRASKA LOW THROUGH WYOMING AND WESTERN MONTANA.            
A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER CENTRAL CANADA.                                           
THE JAMES BAY MID LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT INTO SOUTHWEST QUEBEC...                 
WHILE THE LOW OVER NORTH KANSAS SLIDES INTO OKLAHOMA TODAY. A                   
WEAK SHORTWAVE WRAPPING AROUND THE JAMES BAY LOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH             
THE FORECAST AREA. SOUNDINGS SHOWING AN INVERSION AT AROUND 3.5K                
FEET. CONDITIONS ARE VERY DRY ABOVE THE INVERSION BUT RATHER HIGH RH            
JUST BELOW THIS LEVEL. THEREFORE...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDS.              
THE FORECAST MODELS SHOW THAT IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY DRY AT              
THE SURFACE. THEREFORE...THE SNOW WILL HAVE TO SATURATE OUT THE LOW             
LEVELS BEFORE GETTING TO THE SURFACE. SURFACE TO 900MB LAPSE RATE               
WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 8.5-9.5C/KM. STRONGEST 900MB OMEGA WILL BE              
NORTH OF M-28 FROM KIWD TO KSAW. I WILL BE LOOKING FOR A CHANCE OF              
SOME FLURRIES THERE TODAY. A WARMING AT THE SURFACE WILL REDUCE                 
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE AFTERNOON...AS THE RH LOWERS THROUGH             
THE DAY. THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL ALLOW SOME OF WINDS AT 925MB              
TO MIX TO SURFACE ESPECIALLY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. SO WILL KEEP SOME              
BREEZY GUSTY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY.                                        
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE QUEBEC LOW WILL              
SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE CANADIAN SURFACE WILL              
SLIDE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LAYER AROUND 900MB              
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MOIST WHICH WILL HELP IN PRODUCING SOME                      
PRECIPITATION. MODELS SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW NEARLY DRY AT THE              
SURFACE...AND SURFACE-900MB LAPSE RATE AROUND 8.5C/KM. TEMPERATURES             
WILL BE WELL BELOW FREEZING...THEREFORE...LOOKING FOR A CHANCE OF               
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES OVERNIGHT. TRAJECTORY FORECAST AND                  
GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THE OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID TO            
LOW 20S WHICH WITH THE EXPECTED WINDS AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS SOUND               
REASONABLE.                                                                     
ANOTHER VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY.            
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXPAND TO BLANKET THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON               
SATURDAY AND SLIDE INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THE AIR                
MASS WILL BE VERY STABLE AND DRY WHICH WILL KEEP FAIR CONDITIONS                
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.                                                            
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS IT SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT                
LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE SHIFTING THROUGH THIS RIDGE             
WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. A LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER            
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A COLD FRONT. A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL OCCUR              
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE DRAWING WARMER MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF             
INTO THE AREA.  THE NORTHERN PLAINS LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST             
AREA LATE ON TUESDAY AND BRING AN INCREASE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE             
REGION.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DLG                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
344 AM CDT FRI APR 7 2006                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA IS CORRELATED WITH            
Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE ON THE RUC MODEL. THE RUC MODEL SUGGESTS THAT              
THIS WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA BETWEEN 15Z            
AND 18Z THIS MORNING. IT WILL BE A RAW DAY BETWEEN THE WINDS AND                
COOLER TEMPERATURES. WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH A WIND ADVISORY                  
OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS MORNING. THIS                
ADVISORY IS CORRELATED WITH AN AREA OF PEAK WINDS AT 925 MB AND AN              
AREA OF SURFACE PRESSURE RISES...BOTH FORECAST BY THE NAM MODEL. THE            
SURFACE TRAJECTORY FORECAST SUGGESTS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD                
FAIRLY STEADY THAN BEGIN TO FALL BEFORE THE END OF THE DAY. BOTH THE            
NAM AND GFS MODELS INDICATE FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY               
NIGHT WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PASSING ACROSS THE AREA. RETURN                
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SUNDAY. A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN            
THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA FROM WEST             
TO EAST ON SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ENOUGH               
LIFT FOR MORE THEN JUST PASSING CLOUDS.                                         
LONGER TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT                                     
FOLLOWED THE SLOWER ECMWF MODEL OVERALL THAN THE GFS MODEL ENSEMBLE             
DURING THE PERIOD.  UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST             
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY MONDAY EVENING.  SOUTHWEST               
AIRFLOW ALOFT DEVELOP OR COMMENCE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE                  
NATION INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN                   
BRINGING A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGHS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST             
EARLY IN THE WEEK.  KEPT THE MENTION OF SHRA/TSRA FOR MONDAY NIGHT              
INTO WEDNESDAY.  BY DAY 6...MORE OF A ZONAL UPPER FLOW DEVELOP OVER             
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST.                                                
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR BLUE EARTH-BROWN-                   
     FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-NICOLLET-SIBLEY-STEELE-                 
     WASECA-WATONWAN COUNTIES.                                                  
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-           
     KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI                                                          
     PARLE-POPE-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-STEVENS-SWIFT-YELLOW MEDICINE                  
     COUNTIES.                                                                  
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION                          
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
1233 AM CDT FRI APR 7 2006                                                      
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...                                                        
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE GRADUALLY WEAKENED AS THEY MOVED AWAY FROM THE               
DRYLINE NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS OVER SOUTH            
CENTRAL MO. A FEW MORE SMALL HAILERS OR BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH              
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE STORMS EXIT HOWELL/OREGON/SHANNON/                      
TEXAS/DENT COUNTIES OVER THE HOUR OR SO. DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED                  
SHEAR REMAIN VERY STRONG OVER THE AREA...SO WILL LIKELY WAIT UNTIL              
STORMS HAVE COMPLETELY CLEARED THE AREA BEFORE LETTING TORNADO WATCH            
GO.                                                                             
TERRY                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR 06Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE             
FORECAST PERIOD. DRY SLOT HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF                 
MISSOURI AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STALLS TEMPORARILY OVER THE CENTRAL             
PLAINS. ONCE THE SYSTEM PUSHES SOUTHEAST INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY BY            
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAY NEED TO ADD THUNDER FOR 18Z TO 00Z FRIDAY.               
TERRY                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...302 PM                                                       
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT):                                      
COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN EVOLVING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AT THIS TIME.            
CURRENT WAT VAP IMAGERY/RUC INITIALIZATION OF 500MB VORTICITY                   
INDICATES THAT THE LEAD SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE IS LIFTING THROUGH               
THE AREA. REGIONAL WSR 88D SHOWS THE ASSOCIATE COMPLEX OF SHRA/TSRA             
QUICKLY MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MO OZARKS. MEANWHILE...             
A VERY POTENT UPPER DISTURBANCE IS EMERGING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.            
AT THE SFC...THE DRYLINE HAS SET UP OVER CENTRAL KS/OK AND PER                  
LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY...A CU FIELD IS DEVELOPING ALONG/AHEAD THIS              
FEATURE.                                                                        
INSOFAR AS MOISTURE IS CONCERNED...THE TODAY'S RAINFALL HAS                     
MAINTAINED DECENT BL MOISTURE WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S SFC                   
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION. JUST TO THE WEST...WHERE PARTIAL                   
CLEARING HAS OCCURRED AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE               
LOW/MID 60S. THE LATEST RUC/NAM/GFS INDICATE THAT LOWER 60S WILL                
CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.                              
HEATING AND INSTABILITY HAVE BEEN LIMITED THUS FAR TODAY. OUR                   
RAINFALL HAS SUCCESSFULLY HELD TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER                    
70S...HOWEVER...OVER THE NEXT TWO HOURS THE COMPLEX OF SHRA/TSRA                
WILL EJECT TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST INTO E MO WILL SET UP A BRIEF BREAK            
IN THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED            
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE WESTERN                 
SECTIONS OF THE CWFA WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WARMING INTO THE MID TO               
UPPER 70S. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA WILL HAVE LITTLE TIME TO                
WARM UP AFTER RAINFALL EXITS AND MAY MAKE IT BACK TO AROUND 70.                 
ACCORDING TO SGF 15Z AND 18Z RAOBS...A RATHER STOUT CAP HAS BEEN                
WEAKENED A BIT. AFTER LOOKING AT THE 18Z RAOBS FROM TOP AND OUN                 
(ALONG WITH A 45-50 KT LLJ SURGING INTO THE REGION) I EXPECT A BRIEF            
REINVIGORATION OF THE CAP. INSTABILITY THUS FAR HAS BEEN A FEW                  
HUNDRED J/KG AND RATHER ELEVATED IN NATURE (ABOVE 700MB)...HOWEVER              
AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE PIVOTS TO THE EAST...LAPSE RATES WILL                  
STEEPEN AND MLCAPES WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG.                    
TREMENDOUS WIND ENERGY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...A 110KT                 
ULJ...A 90KT MID LEVEL JET...AND A 45KT LLJ. AS A RESULT...SHEAR IS             
HIGH. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS AROUND 75KTS...WITH 0-1KM SHEAR 20-30KTS.             
AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND                     
EVENING...THESE SHEAR VALUES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND                     
INTENSIFY.                                                                      
EXPECTATIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ARE THAT STORMS WILL RAPIDLY               
DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ALONG THE DRYLINE IN CENTRAL KS/OK AS THE                 
STRONG 90KT MID LEVEL JET NOSES INTO THIS AREA. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE              
AXIS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND STRONG 500MB HEIGHT FALLS AND SFC               
PRESSURE FALLS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION. PARTIAL CLEARING WILL                
HELP INCREASE TEMPS OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND WITH              
LOW 60S SFC DEWPOINTS...RESULT IN UP TO 1500 J/KG MLCAPE. SUPERCELLS            
ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL REMAIN DISCRETE AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA.               
TIMING WISE...OUR THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH. SE KS/W MO WILL BE             
AFFECTED BY STORMS ROUGHLY BETWEEN 6-9PM...THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR              
BETWEEN 7PM-12AM...AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BETWEEN 9PM AND             
2AM. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED AREA               
WIDE. AT THIS TIME...THE RISK FOR TORNADOES LOOKS GREATEST FOR AREAS            
ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR. THE TORNADO RISK FOR                 
AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 IS CONDITIONAL ON WHETHER OR NOT THESE                 
STORMS CAN REMAIN SURFACE BASED. GIVEN THAT THIS AREA WILL HAVE A               
MORE LIMITED OPPORTUNITY TO RECOVER BEHIND THE INITIAL WAVE OF                  
SHRA/TSRA MOVING THROUGH RIGHT NOW.                                             
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...THE COLD CORE UPPER LOW WILL SLOW MEANDER                 
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY. AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING IS                   
EXPECTED AND TEMPS SHOULD QUICKLY WARM INTO THE 70S. STEEP LAPSE                
RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE                    
UNSTABLE AND SCT TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON              
HOURS. WET BULB ZERO HGHTS WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE AND THESE STORMS             
WILL RUN THE RISK OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL                 
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING AND OUT OF THE AREA FRIDAY            
NIGHT. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AND LOWS WILL DROP              
INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S BY SAT MORNING.                                          
GAGAN                                                                           
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT):                                     
ON SATURDAY THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM FINALLY BEGINS TO FILL AND WEAKEN             
AS IT PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS.  MUCH            
COOLER HIGHS CAN BE EXPECTED AS NORTHEAST FLOW TRANSPORTS IN 850MB              
TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN 5 DEG C.  AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF NEAR ABOVE             
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE              
LIKELY.  WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...THERE IS CONCERN FOR                
FROST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS SUNDAY                  
MORNING.  EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER WHERE            
SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY PICK UP A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT.  LOWER 30S ARE                
POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI WHERE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER...AS             
THIS AREA WILL BE CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE.                        
THE UPPER FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM ZONAL ON SUNDAY...TO                        
SOUTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PUSHES INTO               
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A NICE WARMING                     
TREND...AS HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ARE LIKELY MONDAY             
AND TUESDAY.  GRIDS ARE DRY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  ADDED               
SOME LOW END CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT A FRONT AND UPPER            
SYSTEM APPROACH THE OZARKS REGION.  MOISTURE RETURN DOESN'T LOOK ALL            
THAT GREAT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...SO HELD OFF ON HIGHER POPS AT THIS             
TIME.                                                                           
SAW                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
WFO SGF                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
340 AM CDT FRI APR 7 2006                                                       
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...CONVECTION IN SD/SOUTHERN MN SPREAD A                 
CIRRUS SHIELD OVER US ON THU BUT THE CIRRUS IS QUICKLY THINNING                 
AFTER THE END OF TSTORMS. IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL THIN OUT IN TIME              
TO MAKE EASTERN ND AND NORTH HALF OF MN FULLY SUNNY TO START TODAY.             
KMVX RADAR CONTINUES SHOWING A 45 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET AT 2 KFT AGL               
WHICH IS NICELY DECOUPLED AND SHEARED FROM SURFACE OVER AN                      
INVERSION. MODELS SHOW 900 MB TEMPERATURES OVER FARGO DROPPING                  
5C FROM 12Z TO 18Z WHICH WILL SIMPLY MODIFY THE INVERSION TO AN                 
ISOTHERMAL LAYER ABOVE 875 MB FOR THE AFTERNOON. BUT EXPECT THE                 
WIND WILL STAY DECOUPLED UNTIL LATE MORNING WHEN RUC SHOWS THE                  
SURFACE TO 850 MB PRESSURE GRADIENT DROPPING QUICKLY. EXPECT CURRENT            
BREEZY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST MOST OF THE DAY THOUGH WE MIGHT GET A              
BRIEF GUSTY PERIOD LATE IN THE MORNING. COOL/DRY ADVECTION WILL                 
PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM REACH 50F.                                            
LITTLE ELSE OF CONCERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS...            
CLEAR NIGHTS AND WARMER (HIGHS IN THE 50S) THAN SEASONAL LEVELS.                
A WEAK 500 MB SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER ON SUN BUT 850 MB              
DEW POINTS WILL ONLY REACH ZERO OR SO WHILE SURFACE FEATURES ARE                
ALSO WEAK.                                                                      
.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FIGURES TO BE               
LATE MON INTO TUE WITH THE UPPER RIDGE HAVING MOVED TO THE GREAT                
LAKES AND AS BETTER LOOKING SHORTWAVE ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.               
GFS PUSHES 850 MB DEW POINTS TO +8C...SHOWS A 35-40 KNOT 850 MB                 
JET ALONG WITH SHOWALTERS FALLING BELOW ZERO AND AN 850/300 MB JET              
COUPLET TO MAKE IT INTERESTING. THESE FEATURES DON/T LOOK COINCIDENT            
ENOUGH FOR CONVECTION TO BE A LARGE THREAT BUT APPEARS THAT THE                 
NORTH VALLEY WOULD BE MOST LIKELY SO INCREASED POP TO HIGH CHANCE               
THERE. AND CERTAINLY ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO MENTION THUNDER BY                   
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.                                                          
THIS SHORTWAVE STAYS PROGRESSIVE AND SOME DRY ADVECTION WILL SHUT               
OFF CHANCE OF SHOWERS AGAIN LATE TUE UNTIL WED.                                 
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
REFER TO BISFLSFGF PRODUCTS ON OUR HOME PAGE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION            
ON THE ONGOING FLOODING IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND ASSOCIATED                  
TRIBUTARIES.  NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LATE MONDAY INTO             
TUESDAY.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS FOR ALL COUNTIES IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY              
UNTIL FRIDAY.                                                                   
MN...AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS FOR ALL COUNTIES IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY              
UNTIL FRIDAY.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GV                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   nd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO                                         
440 AM EDT FRI APR 7 2006                                                       
.SHORT TERM(TDY-SUN)...                                                         
AN OCCLUDING LOW IS LOCATED ACROSS SE NE THIS MORNING WITH A WARM               
FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH SOUTHERN IN AND INTO KY.  WARM ADVECTION                
TYPE SHRA ARE OVERSPREADING THE CWA.  DEWPOINTS HAD BEEN JUST BARELY            
30F...BUT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE PRECIPITATION...HAVE QUICKLY                 
JUMPED INTO THE UPPER 40S.  TEMPS THE MORNING ARE RUNNING AROUND THE            
50 DEGREE MARK.                                                                 
HOW THIS AFTERNOON PANS OUT WILL BE INTERESTING.  COMPLICATED SETUP             
SPATIALLY ACROSS THE CWA.  BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP RIGHT ACROSS THE             
CWA WITH A TIGHTENING TEMPERATURE GRADIENT/FRONTOGENESIS.  BELIEVE              
FRONT WILL LAY ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO WITH THE STABLE LAKE KEEPING IT             
OVER LAND...AND MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH ITS POSITION.  A WAVE                
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MAKES ITS              
WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...PHASING WITH THE OPENING/FILLING             
CENTRAL PLAINS LOW BY THE TIME THEY REACH THE APPALACHIANS.  THIS               
WILL TAKE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT THIS                   
AFTERNOON.  MID LEVEL DRYING/WARM SECTOR HEATING/ STRONG PROFILE MAY            
VERY WELL PRIME THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON FOR              
THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE...IN TIME FOR THE COLD FROPA.  ADDED                  
SEVERE WORDING TO THESE SOUTHERN ZONES.  TO THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN             
JUST A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THE ELEVATED SIDE.  TEMPS WILL                
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ALONG THE LAKE TO POSSIBLY 70 SOUTH OF                   
BJJ/MFD.                                                                        
PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT TONIGHT...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH/CHANGING TO              
SNOW FOR SOME LOCATIONS DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE COLDER AIR               
INTO THE AREA.  IT WILL BE DRY BY SAT WITH AFTERNOON CU...THEN                  
CLEARING.  TEMPS WILL DIP BELOW AVERAGE TONIGHT AND SAT...AND BELOW             
FREEZING FOR SAT NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE.  DRY AND             
WARMER FOR SUNDAY.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION(06Z-06Z)...                                                           
SIGNIFICANT AVIATION FORECAST ISSUES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LATEST             
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE WARM FRONT STILL FROM MO THRU SRN IL INTO            
WRN KY. THE RUC AND THE NAM ARE VERY INSISTANT IN DRIVING THE FRONT             
NORTHEASTWARN OVER THE NEXT 6 HRS...WITH IT BEING POSITIONED FROM               
NRN INDIANA THRU CENTRAL OH BY 12Z. MEANWHILE...LOW PRES DEVELOPS AT            
THE TRIPLE POINT OVR NRN IN BY 12Z WHICH HELPS TO STALL THE FRONT               
OVR NRN OH UNTIL THE LOW PASSES EAST AND ALLOWS THE FRONT TO SHIFT              
SOUTH.                                                                          
PCPN IS CURRENTLY SPREADING INTO THE SWRN FORECAST AREA. EXPECT THIS            
PCPN TO SLOWLY SPREAD E-NE OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NE. BY             
12Z...NEARLY THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE PCPN...BUT IT WILL               
TAKE AWHILE TO START ESPECIALLY AT ERI AND YNG DUE TO THE VERY DRY              
LOW LVL AIRMASS. EVENTUALLY...ALL SITES SHOULD DROP TO IFR. LIFR IS             
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS BUT CURRENTLY NO                
UPSTREAM SITES ARE REPORTING LIFR SO I HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT OF               
THE FCST ATTM. NO THUNDER REPORTED EITHER AND WITH LACK OF ANY                  
ELEVATED OR SFC INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT...HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE THUNDER            
FROM THE TAFS THRU 14Z.                                                         
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE FRONT HANGING UP                
JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE               
COLD LAKE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE SRN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TO             
SEE SOME DRY AIR AFT 14Z WHICH MAY ALLOW THE CIGS AT THE SOUTHERN               
SITES TO RISE TO TO MVFR. IN FACT...IT WOULD NOT BE TOTALLY                     
SURPRISING TO ME IF THE SOUTHERN SITES SEE VFR CONDITIONS FRI MRNG              
AS THE WARM FRONT STAYS N OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY SINCE SITES S OF             
THE WARM FRONT ARE VFR ATTM. HOWEVER...THIS PARTIAL CLEARING WILL               
ALSO SERVE TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE S OF THE FRONT FRI AFTN                
WHICH SHOULD HELP A LINE OF STORMS TO DEVELOP. BEST CHANCE FOR                  
STORMS WILL BE GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US224. COULD SEE SOME               
ELEVATED STORMS N OF THE WARM FRONT WITH THE NAM SHOWING ELEVATED               
CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG AT KCLE AND KTOL. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE             
OF THIS IS A LITTLE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE TSRA AT TOL/CLE/ERI ATTM. IF             
THE NAM THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC PROFILES VERIFY SOUTH OVER THE              
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...SEVERE STORMS ARE CERTAINLY                
POSSIBLE.                                                                       
IF THE SRN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SEES CLEARING TODAY...GUSTY                
SWLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE. BUFKIT SHOWS GUSTS 25-35KT IN THE             
WARM SECTOR LATER THIS MRNG INTO THIS AFTN.                                     
BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF LOW LVL STRATUS TO DEAL            
WITH THROUGH 06Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS. MAY BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AFT              
00Z AT TOL...BUT THEY SHOULD BE MINOR AND LATER FORECASTS CAN LOOK              
AT THAT POSSIBILITY.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT THROUGH THURS)...                                         
A WARMING TREND FOLLOWS THAT WILL LAST THRU MUCH OF THE THE WEEK.               
XPC GNLY DRY CONDS ALTHOUGH NEW GFS DID BRING A SHORT WAVE THRU THE             
AREA ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A CHC OF TSTMS.  FAVORED EMCWF HERE                
WITH IS DRIER WITH A LESS DVLPD SFC LOW TO OUR WEST AND KEPT POPS IN            
LOW CHC CAT.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
PA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN                                                            
LONG TERM...TK                                                                  
AVIATION...MRD                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO                                         
140 AM EDT FRI APR 7 2006                                                       
.AVIATION(06Z-06Z)...                                                           
SIGNIFICANT AVIATION FORECAST ISSUES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LATEST             
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE WARM FRONT STILL FROM MO THRU SRN IL INTO            
WRN KY. THE RUC AND THE NAM ARE VERY INSISTANT IN DRIVING THE FRONT             
NORTHEASTWARN OVER THE NEXT 6 HRS...WITH IT BEING POSITIONED FROM               
NRN INDIANA THRU CENTRAL OH BY 12Z. MEANWHILE...LOW PRES DEVELOPS AT            
THE TRIPLE POINT OVR NRN IN BY 12Z WHICH HELPS TO STALL THE FRONT               
OVR NRN OH UNTIL THE LOW PASSES EAST AND ALLOWS THE FRONT TO SHIFT              
SOUTH.                                                                          
PCPN IS CURRENTLY SPREADING INTO THE SWRN FORECAST AREA. EXPECT THIS            
PCPN TO SLOWLY SPREAD E-NE OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NE. BY             
12Z...NEARLY THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE PCPN...BUT IT WILL               
TAKE AWHILE TO START ESPECIALLY AT ERI AND YNG DUE TO THE VERY DRY              
LOW LVL AIRMASS. EVENTUALLY...ALL SITES SHOULD DROP TO IFR. LIFR IS             
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS BUT CURRENTLY NO                
UPSTREAM SITES ARE REPORTING LIFR SO I HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT OF               
THE FCST ATTM. NO THUNDER REPORTED EITHER AND WITH LACK OF ANY                  
ELEVATED OR SFC INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT...HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE THUNDER            
FROM THE TAFS THRU 14Z.                                                         
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE FRONT HANGING UP                
JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE               
COLD LAKE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE SRN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TO             
SEE SOME DRY AIR AFT 14Z WHICH MAY ALLOW THE CIGS AT THE SOUTHERN               
SITES TO RISE TO TO MVFR. IN FACT...IT WOULD NOT BE TOTALLY                     
SURPRISING TO ME IF THE SOUTHERN SITES SEE VFR CONDITIONS FRI MRNG              
AS THE WARM FRONT STAYS N OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY SINCE SITES S OF             
THE WARM FRONT ARE VFR ATTM. HOWEVER...THIS PARTIAL CLEARING WILL               
ALSO SERVE TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE S OF THE FRONT FRI AFTN                
WHICH SHOULD HELP A LINE OF STORMS TO DEVELOP. BEST CHANCE FOR                  
STORMS WILL BE GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US224. COULD SEE SOME               
ELEVATED STORMS N OF THE WARM FRONT WITH THE NAM SHOWING ELEVATED               
CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG AT KCLE AND KTOL. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE             
OF THIS IS A LITTLE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE TSRA AT TOL/CLE/ERI ATTM. IF             
THE NAM THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC PROFILES VERIFY SOUTH OVER THE              
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...SEVERE STORMS ARE CERTAINLY                
POSSIBLE.                                                                       
IF THE SRN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SEES CLEARING TODAY...GUSTY                
SWLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE. BUFKIT SHOWS GUSTS 25-35KT IN THE             
WARM SECTOR LATER THIS MRNG INTO THIS AFTN.                                     
BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF LOW LVL STRATUS TO DEAL            
WITH THROUGH 06Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS. MAY BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AFT              
00Z AT TOL...BUT THEY SHOULD BE MINOR AND LATER FORECASTS CAN LOOK              
AT THAT POSSIBILITY.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM UPDATE(OVERNIGHT)...                                                
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKING ON TARGET WITH PRECIP BEGINNING TO DEVELOP             
ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO.  TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING            
HAVE NOT MOVE MUCH FOLLOWING SUNSET...TEMPS STILL WITHIN A FEW                  
DEGREES OF THE 60 DEGREE MARK AT TOLEDO AND STILL IN THE MID 50S                
NEAR CLEVELAND.  WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 30S...DO THINK THAT                
TEMPS WILL FALL OFF JUST A BIT ONCE THE RAIN BEGINS BUT DID MAKE A              
FEW MINOR CHANGES...MAINLY RE-WORDED TO SAY LOWS AROUND 50.                     
OTHERWISE FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION(00Z-00Z)...                                                           
DEEP LOW PRES OVER CENTRAL PLAINS WITH WARM FRONT TO KY. WARM FRONT             
WILL LIFT N CLOSE TO SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY            
MORNING. HIGH VFR CONDITION TO START OUT THE FORECAST. WILL SPREAD              
RAIN ACROSS THE AREAS FROM SW TO NE STARTING AROUND                             
MIDNIGHT...GRADUALLY LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS TO IFR FEW HOURS AFTER             
RAIN BEGINS. THEN HOLD ONTO IFR UNTIL FEW HOURS AFTER FRONT SAGS                
LITTLE TO SE OF THE AREA AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT TOMORROW.              
WARM FRONT AND BEST INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE AREA...BUT               
TSTMS POSSIBLE JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WITH FAIRLY STG 50KT 8H             
JET.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM(TNGT-SAT)...                                                        
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN OVERRUNNING ENVIRONMENT ACRS              
IL AND IND THIS AFTN WHILE BLOWOFF CLOUDS SPILL INTO NRN OH.  LOTS              
OF FILTERED SS ACRS CWA THIS AFTN THOUGH.  THIS OF COURSE WILL FILL             
IN THIS EVG AS WARM FRONT LIFTS OUT OF THE CNTRL PLAINS TWRD THE                
AREA.  FOR TDA WL CONT WITH FCST OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS                   
OVERTAKING THE AREA FM THE SE OVERNIGHT. WILL WORD THE FCST AS PCPN             
DEVELOPING WEST AND WILL PLACE TIMING ACRS THE CNTRL AND ERN ZONES              
FOR DEVELOPING AROUND MIDNIGHT OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. XPC PRECIP TO                 
REACH INTO NWRN PA LATE TNGT...PSBLY 3 TO 5 AM.  QPF WILL LKLY BE IN            
THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE FOR THE EVENT BUT CRNT EXPECTATION IS THAT                
RAINFALL WILL NOT BCM EXCESSIVE ACRS THE BULK OF THE AREA.  BEST CHC            
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THRU FRIDAY EVG INDICATED BY HPC IS IN THE FAR            
SERN COUNTIES.  FOR FRIDAY NAM12 ACTUALLY TAKES THE WARM FRONT ONTO             
THE LAKE FROM CLE EAST BASED ON BNDRY LYR WINDS BUT WARM FRONT DONT             
REALLY LAKE TO GO INTO THE LAKE THIS TIME OF YEAR SO BLV NAM15Z                 
POSITION PROBABLY REPRESENTS THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE BNDRY.            
THIS POSITION IS A LINE FM NR ERI TO CLE TO FDY LINE.  STG                      
FRONTOGENESIS SHOWN ACRS THE AREA FRIDAY WITH NLY/NELY FLOW TO OUR              
NORTH AND SWLY FLOW TO OUR SOUTH CREATING QUITE A SHARP THERMAL                 
BOUNDRY WITH LOWER/MID 40S VS UPPER 60S NORTH TO SOUTH.  WL CONT                
WITH CAT POPS FRIDAY.  LATE FRIDAY MORNING/FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE                 
FRONTAL SYSTEM ACRS THE AREA TURNS COLD AND PROGRESSES SOUTH ACRS               
THE AREA. EVENTUALLY DRAGGING MSTR SOUTH OF THE AREA TWRDS MORNING              
SAT.  NAM12 CONTINUES TO INDICATE A TRANSITION TO SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT             
BEFORE PCPN ENDS SO WL CONT TREND IN THE FCST. UPPER TROF CONTINUES             
TO EXTEND OVER THE OH VLY SATURDAY AS COLD ADVN DROP 850MB TEMPS TO             
-8C OR SO DURG THE AFTN.  KEPT SCT/BKN CLOUDS IN FOR THE NE AND                 
N-CNTRL COUNTIES ALONG WITH THE PSBLITY OF FLURRIES BUT AMS REALLY              
IS VERY DRY AND INVN FCST TO BE QUITE LOW SO KEPT POPS LOW.                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT THROUGH THURS)...                                         
A WARMING TREND FOLLOWS THAT WILL LAST THRU MUCH OF THE THE WEEK.               
XPC GNLY DRY CONDS ALTHOUGH NEW GFS DID BRING A SHORT WAVE THRU THE             
AREA ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A CHC OF TSTMS.  FAVORED EMCWF HERE                
WITH IS DRIER WITH A LESS DVLPD SFC LOW TO OUR WEST AND KEPT POPS IN            
LOW CHC CAT.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
PA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...LEINS/TK                                                           
LONG TERM...TK                                                                  
AVIATION...MRD                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                          
331 AM CDT FRI APR 7 2006                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
LOOKS LIKE ONE MORE DAY OF WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS AS A LOW                   
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY PULLS OUT OF THE PLAINS TODAY. SFC DRYLINE               
REMAINS STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL TX ALONG I-35 THIS MORNING. THE                  
DRYLINE SHOULD MAKE SOME MORE EASTWARD PROGRESS TODAY AS SFC LOW                
PRESSURE IN S NEBRASKA PUSHES EAST. GFS/NAM 00Z INITIALIZATIONS                 
SEEM NOT TO RESOLVE A DEEP ENOUGH LOW PRESSURE WHICH MAY RESULT                 
IN A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS OVER THE REGION. THE 06Z                
RUC SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS WHICH SUPPORTS STRONGER               
WINDS IN THE 25-30KT RANGE LATE THIS MORNING. ALSO ANOTHER POTENT               
SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES SHOULD DIVE INTO THE BOTTOM OF               
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. THIS SHORTWAVE MAY ALSO AID IN                
TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AS WELL. FEEL PRESSURE GRADIENT                
WILL BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG WINDS SO WIND ADVISORY IS                
NEEDED FOR BIG COUNTRY...CONCHO VALLEY AND HEARTLAND. WITH DRY                  
AIR IN PLACE...ALSO NEED RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL AREAS. WINDS                  
SHOULD EXCEED CRITERIA ESPECIALLY IN THE BIG COUNTRY AND RELATIVE               
HUMIDITY SHOULD BE BELOW 20 PERCENT.                                            
DESPITE THE POOR INITIALIZATION OF THE NAM...MODELS CONTINUE TO                 
SUGGEST A STRONG COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH THE                  
NAM THE COLDEST BETWEEN IT AND THE GFS. COLD ADVECTION SHOULD                   
CONTINUE MOST OF SATURDAY WHICH WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES INTO THE                 
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR MOST AREAS. LOW TEMPS WILL FALL BACK                   
INTO THE 40S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD SPREAD OVER THE AREA                   
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DIGS OFF THE                        
CALIFORNIA COAST. EARLY NEXT WEEK SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT                
EAST ALLOWING FOR SOME RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF. WITH THE FRONT                 
PUSHING WELL INTO THE GULF...MOISTURE SHOULD BE SLOW TO RETURN.                 
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
EARLY NEXT WEEK GFS/ECMWF AGREE WITH ONE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH               
SCREAMING INTO THE PLAINS ON MONDAY WITH MEAN TROUGH SITUATED OFF               
THE CALIFORNIA COAST. MODELS SEEM QUITE CONTENT TO KEEP A MEAN                  
TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WHICH                 
KEEPS UPPER RIDGING OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES                
TO REBOUND WELL INTO THE 80S FOR MAX TEMPS DURING THE WEEK.                     
FORECASTED TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE...BUT A PERHAPS A COUPLE                 
OF DEGREES WARMER ON MAX TEMPS AS LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINLY BE                 
FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR ESTABLISHED                    
ELEVATED MIX LAYER TO MIX DOWN RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPS THAN                   
WHAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. WILL TRY NOT TO GET TOO CARRIED AWAY AS                 
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GFS ENSEMBLE MOS NUMBERS...BUT STILL               
THINK TEMPS COULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S ESPECIALLY TOWARDS MID                
WEEK. RAIN CHANCES LOOK SLIM TO NONE AS ANY SHORTWAVE TROUGHS                   
LOOK TO PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE                   
SUFFICIENTLY CAPPED BY ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WITH 700MB TEMPS                    
RUNNING 8C-10C. THIS WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY THE FACT THAT MOISTURE               
WILL BE SLOW TO RETURN AND WILL BE SHALLOW AT BEST ESPECIALLY IN                
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
ABILENE      83  45  66  47 /   0   0   0   0                                   
SAN ANGELO   86  46  71  47 /   0   0   0   0                                   
JUNCTION     90  45  73  46 /   0   0   0   0                                   
&&                                                                              
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE                       
FOLLOWING ZONES: BROWN...CALLAHAN...COKE...COLEMAN...CONCHO...                  
CROCKETT...FISHER...HASKELL...IRION...JONES...KIMBLE...MASON...                 
MCCULLOCH...MENARD...NOLAN...RUNNELS...SAN SABA...SCHLEICHER...                 
SHACKELFORD...STERLING...SUTTON...TAYLOR...THROCKMORTON...AND                   
TOM GREEN.                                                                      
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING                
ZONES: BROWN...CALLAHAN...COKE...COLEMAN...CONCHO...FISHER...                   
HASKELL...IRION...JONES...MCCULLOCH...NOLAN...RUNNELS...SAN                     
SABA...SHACKELFORD...STERLING...TAYLOR...THROCKMORTON...AND TOM                 
GREEN.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
23/10                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1200 PM EDT FRI APR 7 2006                                                      
UPDATE...SURFACE/RUC ANALYSIS AND IR/VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOW POLAR                 
FRONT HAS REACHED APPROX SAGINAW BAY TO SOUTHWEST LOWER                         
MICHIGAN...AND THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD COVER EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN              
LAKE HURON...THROUGH ALPENA AND TVC...AND WESTWARD TO NEAR GREEN                
BAY.  RADAR IS SHOWING NORTHERN EXTENT OF RAIN SHOWERS FROM OSCODA              
TO LUDINGTON ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY NORTH            
OF THIS LINE TO ABOUT M-32.  WITH MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH                  
CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN PROGRESSING SLOWLY                  
NORTHWARD WITH TIME...AND WITH THE AREA OF FGEN/UPPER LEVEL DIV/AND             
700-500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE... HAVE INCREASED POPS TO DEFINITE               
ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-55 WITH ONLY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH TO                  
M-72.  HAVE ALSO LEFT A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FROM 22Z THROUGH            
04Z THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS TEMPERATURES FALL...AND PRECIP MAY                
LINGER.                                                                         
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT THU APR 7 2005                            
CURRENT SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA WILL                    
CONSOLIDATE INTO A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN               
THIRD OF THE COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND...A COMBINATION OF NORTHERN STREAM            
UPPER LOW SPINNING SOUTH OUT OF ONTARIO...AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT             
WAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE                 
PROGRESSIVE...WITH THIS TROUGH SWEEPING OFF THE EAST COAST                      
SUNDAY...WITH RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN ITS WAKE.                
FIRST THINGS FIRST...MIDNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT               
ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN STREAM HEIGHT FALLS LYING ACROSS UPPER MI.             
THIS BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTH TODAY AS POLAR HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN               
FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND BRINGS ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR INTO THE             
STATE.  THIS HIGH THEN SETTLES IN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE                    
WEEKEND...WITH WARM ADVECTION PATTERN GETTING RE-ESTABLISHED                    
SUNDAY.  SO FORECAST ISSUES TODAY DEAL WITH SHOWERS CURRENTLY                   
ONGOING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...THEN LAKE INDUCED CLOUD                
COVER/PRECIP ISSUES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP            
BACK TOWARD -10C.                                                               
TODAY/TONIGHT...MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND RRQ FORCING FROM JET                  
STREAK NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR TOUCHED OFF A NARROW BAND OF                  
SHOWERS LAST EVENING BETWEEN M-68/M-32...WHICH HAS PERSISTED INTO               
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST A DIMINISHING                    
TREND...SO WILL WAIT AND SEE HOW THINGS ARE SHAPING UP PRIOR TO                 
PRESS TIME BEFORE DECIDING HOW TO HANDLE THIS.  MEANWHILE...MORE                
EXTENSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS SPREADING OUT OF EASTERN WI AND TOWARD                
WESTERN LOWER MI...NORTHERN EXTENT REACHES UP TO M-72.  AS NORTHERN             
STREAM SHORT WAVE DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...MID                
LEVEL FLOW EVENTUALLY SHIFTS FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST...WHICH IN TURN             
SHOULD PUSH NORTHERN EDGE OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD SOUTH.  BUT IN THE            
MEANTIME...LOOKS LIKE RAIN IS A GOOD BET THIS MORNING ALONG/SOUTH OF            
M-55 AND WILL RAISE POPS ALONG THAT CORRIDOR ACCORDINGLY...WITH                 
CHANCE POPS TO M-72 THIS MORNING.  WILL TRY AND PUSH PRECIPITATION              
OUT OF SOUTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA BY AFTERNOON...IF IT DOES              
LINGER MAY BE DEALING WITH A MIX OR CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING.               
WITH DRIER AIR COMING IN FROM THE NORTH DO EXPECT TO SEE SOME                   
SUNSHINE BREAK OUT AS THE DAY WEARS ON.  FOR TONIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW             
WILL PREVAIL WITH A SHALLOW OVER WATER CBL WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES              
HOVERING AROUND -10C.  SO VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER                       
ANTICIPATED...WITH MORE CLOUDS NEAR THE LAKES IN AREAS FAVORED BY               
NORTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES.                               
SATURDAY...OTHER THAN SOME NUISANCE CLOUDS/FLURRIES EARLY ON...                 
SATURDAY OVERALL LOOKS TO BE A QUIET DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES IN             
FROM THE WEST.  EXPECTING SOME MORE CLEARING SATURDAY NIGHT...THOUGH            
PERHAPS SOME WARM ADVECTION MID CLOUD SPILLING INTO THE AREA                    
OVERNIGHT.                                                                      
MARINE...WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY AS               
GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AND COLD ADVECTION MIXES DOWN SOME MOMENTUM.               
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ALREADY UP AND LOOKS JUST FINE.  COULD SEE               
SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS IN COASTAL CONVERGENCE AREAS SOUTH OF PRESQUE             
ISLE LIGHT ON THE LAKE HURON SIDE...AND PERHAPS WITH WINDS                      
FUNNELING THROUGH THE MANITOU PASSAGE.  WINDS WILL SUBSIDE                      
TONIGHT...AND EXPECTING WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA                 
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.                                           
JPB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1103 AM EDT FRI APR 7 2006                                                      
.UPDATED...                                                                     
I WILL SHORTLY PUT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO SUGGEST RAIN WILL MIX WITH             
SNOW OVER THE NRN 1/3 OF THE CWA AFTER 18Z. THIS IS BASED ON THE                
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR IN FROM THE NORTH AND THE PERSISTENCE OF THE             
FGEN PCPN BAND THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE AFTERNOON. RUC 1300                   
1000/850MB THICKNESS LINE NEAR RQB BY 18Z AND GRR BY 21Z. THIS IS               
STRONG ENOUGH COLD ADVECTION THAT AS LONG AS THERE IS SIGNIFICANT               
PCPN FALLING IT SHOULD BE CHANGING TO SNOW BY THEN. WATER VAPOR...              
IR IMAGES AND RADAR LOOPS ALL SUGGEST THE FGEN RAIN BAND WILL                   
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. THIS IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE NEW              
NAM AND RUC THAN THE 00Z OR 06Z GFS.  MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION                 
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM 30 MILE SOUTH OF I-96 TO NEAR ROUTE 10.             
I EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE PCPN FIELD             
TO END BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FGEN FORCING STARTS TO WEAKEN. IT              
IS CURIOUS TO NOTE BOTH THE RUC AND NAM SHOW THE LAST AREA TO SEE               
PRECIPITATION IS BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 96 EARLY THIS EVENING. GIVEN            
WHAT I SEE ON SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS THIS DOES MAKE SENSE. WHICH             
BRINGS ME BACK TO THE SNOW ISSUE. IF THAT BAND DOES STAY THERE TILL             
NEAR 00Z THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. WE WILL HAVE TO               
MONITOR THAT.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NEARSHORE               
WATERS ST. JOSEPH TO MANISTEE THROUGH TONIGHT.                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WDM                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1055 AM EDT FRI APR 7 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
CURRENT TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BTWN UPR 20S OVR HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR             
LK SUPERIOR TO THE UPR 30S OVR SCNTRL AREAS AND LOCATIONS NEAR LK               
MI. COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH DAY AS H95-H85 THERMAL                 
TROUGHS SETTLE OVR THE REGION IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE SLIDING INTO                 
QUEBEC. VWP SHOWS WINDS WITHIN LOWEST 3KFT AGL UP TO 25 KT WHILE OVR            
LK SUPERIOR A FEW GALES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ON W HALF. THUS                      
FAR...JUST A FEW LIGHT FLURRIES OVR THE UPSLOPE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS            
OF BARAGA INTO MARQUETTE COUNTIES. WIDESPREAD AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS             
CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVR MUCH OF N HALF OF CWA. TWEAKED SKY COVER              
TO LINGER BKN CLOUDS LONGER THROUGH AFTN AND ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPS                
SLIGHTLY TO SHOW MORE WARMING OVR SCNTRL AREAS (NEAR 40) AND COOLER             
TEMPS OVR HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW/NCNTRL (UPR 20S/NEAR 30). TEMPS MAY              
TRY TO RISE SLIGHTLY BY LATE AFTN IF CLOUDS BREAK DUE TO HIGH SUN               
ANGLE. OTHERWISE...MOST SPOTS NEAR LK SUPERIOR SHOULD REMAIN                    
ANCHORED IN THE UPR 20S AND LWR 30S. WHAT A DIFFERENCE COMPARED TO              
YDY AS AFTN TEMPS YDY IN MOST AREAS TOPPED OUT IN THE MID 50S TO LWR            
60S.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT)...                                      
THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE ARE WITH THE WINDS                 
TODAY AND THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.                                  
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/NAM SHOWING DEEP LOWS OVER NORTHEAST                
KANSAS AND OVER SOUTHERN JAMES BAY...WITH A RIDGE SEPARATING THESE              
EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH WISCONSIN...INTO NORTH             
DAKOTA. ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH                 
MONTANA INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A LOW              
OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS EAST FROM THIS LOW            
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. A FRONT ALSO               
RUNS WEST FROM THE NEBRASKA LOW THROUGH WYOMING AND WESTERN MONTANA.            
A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER CENTRAL CANADA.                                           
THE JAMES BAY MID LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT INTO SOUTHWEST QUEBEC...                 
WHILE THE LOW OVER NORTH KANSAS SLIDES INTO OKLAHOMA TODAY. A                   
WEAK SHORTWAVE WRAPPING AROUND THE JAMES BAY LOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH             
THE FORECAST AREA. SOUNDINGS SHOWING AN INVERSION AT AROUND 3.5K                
FEET. CONDITIONS ARE VERY DRY ABOVE THE INVERSION BUT RATHER HIGH RH            
JUST BELOW THIS LEVEL. THEREFORE...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDS.              
THE FORECAST MODELS SHOW THAT IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY DRY AT              
THE SURFACE. THEREFORE...THE SNOW WILL HAVE TO SATURATE OUT THE LOW             
LEVELS BEFORE GETTING TO THE SURFACE. SURFACE TO 900MB LAPSE RATE               
WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 8.5-9.5C/KM. STRONGEST 900MB OMEGA WILL BE              
NORTH OF M-28 FROM KIWD TO KSAW. I WILL BE LOOKING FOR A CHANCE OF              
SOME FLURRIES THERE TODAY. A WARMING AT THE SURFACE WILL REDUCE                 
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE AFTERNOON...AS THE RH LOWERS THROUGH             
THE DAY. THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL ALLOW SOME OF WINDS AT 925MB              
TO MIX TO SURFACE ESPECIALLY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. SO WILL KEEP SOME              
BREEZY GUSTY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY.                                        
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE QUEBEC LOW WILL              
SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE CANADIAN SURFACE WILL              
SLIDE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LAYER AROUND 900MB              
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MOIST WHICH WILL HELP IN PRODUCING SOME                      
PRECIPITATION. MODELS SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW NEARLY DRY AT THE              
SURFACE...AND SURFACE-900MB LAPSE RATE AROUND 8.5C/KM. TEMPERATURES             
WILL BE WELL BELOW FREEZING...THEREFORE...LOOKING FOR A CHANCE OF               
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES OVERNIGHT. TRAJECTORY FORECAST AND                  
GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THE OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID TO            
LOW 20S WHICH WITH THE EXPECTED WINDS AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS SOUND               
REASONABLE.                                                                     
ANOTHER VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY.            
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXPAND TO BLANKET THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON               
SATURDAY AND SLIDE INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THE AIR                
MASS WILL BE VERY STABLE AND DRY WHICH WILL KEEP FAIR CONDITIONS                
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.                                                            
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS IT SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT                
LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE SHIFTING THROUGH THIS RIDGE             
WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. A LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER            
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A COLD FRONT. A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL OCCUR              
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE DRAWING WARMER MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF             
INTO THE AREA.  THE NORTHERN PLAINS LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST             
AREA LATE ON TUESDAY AND BRING AN INCREASE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE             
REGION.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...JLA                                                                    
PREV DISCUSSION...DLG                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
1030 AM EDT FRI APR 7 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...MAIN FORECAST ISSUES FOR TODAY WILL BE                    
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AND GUSTY WINDS.                                          
LATEST RUC MODEL RUN SHOWS 925 MB WINDS INCREASING TO 30 KNOTS IN               
THE NORTHERN ZONES AND 25 KNOTS SOUTHERN ZONES TODAY. ANALYSIS OF               
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A DEEP MIXED LAYER DURING THE WARM AFTERNOON            
THAT WOULD BE CAPABLE OF BRINGING SOME OF THESE HIGHER WINDS TO THE             
SURFACE. ADDITIONALLY...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE                   
TIGHTENING BETWEEN A LARGE CYCLONE TO OUR WEST AND NORTH WITH HIGH              
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH                
MENTION OF GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS               
CONTINUED MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT.                                   
HIGHS TODAY WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY             
SKIES...EXCEPT 70S ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE SEABREEZE WILL BRING               
COOLER NEARSHORE OCEAN AIR TOWARD THE BEACHES.                                  
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...RH VALUES WILL BE NEAR CRITICAL AWAY FROM THE COAST             
THIS AFTERNOON. THE CONTINUED LOW HUMIDITIES...GUSTY WINDS ABOVE                
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS DUE TO AFTERNOON MIXING OF WINDS ALOFT...AND DRY            
FUELS HAS NECESSITATED THE ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING FOR SC AND            
GA ZONES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.                                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS                    
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS                
TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND A STRONG STORM             
SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND WEST. SCA IN EFFECT BEGINNING TONIGHT FOR               
OFFSHORE GA WATERS DUE TO BUILDING SEAS UNDER A SUFFICIENT SOUTHERLY            
FETCH. SCA ALSO IN EFFECT FOR CHARLESTON HARBOR TODAY THROUGH THIS              
EVENING. GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE HARBOR WILL BE THE                   
COMBINED EFFECT OF THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND MIXING OF STRONGER               
WINDS ALOFT.                                                                    
CURRENT COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ON TRACK. NO CHANGES FOR THE MORNING            
ISSUANCE.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS LIKELY DURING THE EARLY              
AFTERNOON DUE TO INCREASED MIXING OF HIGHER WINDS ALOFT. WINDS WILL             
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING...HOWEVER WINDS WILL QUICKLY                
INCREASE ABOVE THE SURFACE. LLWS INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AT BOTH                   
TERMINALS AFTER 02Z TONIGHT.                                                    
SKIES WILL BE VFR DURING THE PERIOD UNDER SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS.                
&&                                                                              
.LAKE WINDS...A DEEP MIXING LAYER TODAY WILL ALLOW STRONGER WINDS               
ALOFT TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE SHORE.              
THUS...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LAKE MOULTRIE                   
THROUGH THIS EVENING.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...RED FLAG WARNING NOON UNTIL 7 PM FOR GAZ087-088-099>101-114>116-           
       118-137-138-140.                                                         
SC...RED FLAG WARNING NOON UNTIL 7 PM FOR SCZ040-042>045-047.                   
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR LAKE MOULTRIE UNTIL 10 PM SCZ045.                   
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ330-374.                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WMS                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                          
631 AM CDT FRI APR 7 2006                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR                 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND              
20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS WILL DOMINATE WEST CENTRAL TEXAS                
BEGINNING LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING UNTIL AROUND SUNSET THIS             
EVENING. LIKE YESTERDAY...BLOWING DUST MAY OCCASIONALLY REDUCE                  
THE VISIBILITY IN SOME LOCATIONS TO AROUND 2 MILES...MAINLY ALONG               
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 THIS AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING...A STRONG COLD         
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AND SHIFT WINDS TO              
THE NORTH. AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...EXPECT NORTH WINDS AROUND 10                
KNOTS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.                                                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 331 AM CDT FRI APR 7 2006)                          
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
LOOKS LIKE ONE MORE DAY OF WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS AS A LOW                   
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY PULLS OUT OF THE PLAINS TODAY. SFC DRYLINE               
REMAINS STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL TX ALONG I-35 THIS MORNING. THE                  
DRYLINE SHOULD MAKE SOME MORE EASTWARD PROGRESS TODAY AS SFC LOW                
PRESSURE IN S NEBRASKA PUSHES EAST. GFS/NAM 00Z INITIALIZATIONS                 
SEEM NOT TO RESOLVE A DEEP ENOUGH LOW PRESSURE WHICH MAY RESULT                 
IN A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS OVER THE REGION. THE 06Z                
RUC SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS WHICH SUPPORTS STRONGER               
WINDS IN THE 25-30KT RANGE LATE THIS MORNING. ALSO ANOTHER POTENT               
SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES SHOULD DIVE INTO THE BOTTOM OF               
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. THIS SHORTWAVE MAY ALSO AID IN                
TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AS WELL. FEEL PRESSURE GRADIENT                
WILL BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG WINDS SO WIND ADVISORY IS                
NEEDED FOR BIG COUNTRY...CONCHO VALLEY AND HEARTLAND. WITH DRY                  
AIR IN PLACE...ALSO NEED RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL AREAS. WINDS                  
SHOULD EXCEED CRITERIA ESPECIALLY IN THE BIG COUNTRY AND RELATIVE               
HUMIDITY SHOULD BE BELOW 20 PERCENT.                                            
DESPITE THE POOR INITIALIZATION OF THE NAM...MODELS CONTINUE TO                 
SUGGEST A STRONG COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH THE                  
NAM THE COLDEST BETWEEN IT AND THE GFS. COLD ADVECTION SHOULD                   
CONTINUE MOST OF SATURDAY WHICH WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES INTO THE                 
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR MOST AREAS. LOW TEMPS WILL FALL BACK                   
INTO THE 40S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD SPREAD OVER THE AREA                   
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DIGS OFF THE                        
CALIFORNIA COAST. EARLY NEXT WEEK SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT                
EAST ALLOWING FOR SOME RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF. WITH THE FRONT                 
PUSHING WELL INTO THE GULF...MOISTURE SHOULD BE SLOW TO RETURN.                 
LONG TERM...                                                                    
EARLY NEXT WEEK GFS/ECMWF AGREE WITH ONE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH               
SCREAMING INTO THE PLAINS ON MONDAY WITH MEAN TROUGH SITUATED OFF               
THE CALIFORNIA COAST. MODELS SEEM QUITE CONTENT TO KEEP A MEAN                  
TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WHICH                 
KEEPS UPPER RIDGING OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES                
TO REBOUND WELL INTO THE 80S FOR MAX TEMPS DURING THE WEEK.                     
FORECASTED TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE...BUT A PERHAPS A COUPLE                 
OF DEGREES WARMER ON MAX TEMPS AS LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINLY BE                 
FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR ESTABLISHED                    
ELEVATED MIX LAYER TO MIX DOWN RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPS THAN                   
WHAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. WILL TRY NOT TO GET TOO CARRIED AWAY AS                 
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GFS ENSEMBLE MOS NUMBERS...BUT STILL               
THINK TEMPS COULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S ESPECIALLY TOWARDS MID                
WEEK. RAIN CHANCES LOOK SLIM TO NONE AS ANY SHORTWAVE TROUGHS                   
LOOK TO PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE                   
SUFFICIENTLY CAPPED BY ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WITH 700MB TEMPS                    
RUNNING 8C-10C. THIS WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY THE FACT THAT MOISTURE               
WILL BE SLOW TO RETURN AND WILL BE SHALLOW AT BEST ESPECIALLY IN                
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE                       
FOLLOWING ZONES: BROWN...CALLAHAN...COKE...COLEMAN...CONCHO...                  
CROCKETT...FISHER...HASKELL...IRION...JONES...KIMBLE...MASON...                 
MCCULLOCH...MENARD...NOLAN...RUNNELS...SAN SABA...SCHLEICHER...                 
SHACKELFORD...STERLING...SUTTON...TAYLOR...THROCKMORTON...AND                   
TOM GREEN.                                                                      
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING                
ZONES: BROWN...CALLAHAN...COKE...COLEMAN...CONCHO...FISHER...                   
HASKELL...IRION...JONES...MCCULLOCH...NOLAN...RUNNELS...SAN                     
SABA...SHACKELFORD...STERLING...TAYLOR...THROCKMORTON...AND TOM                 
GREEN.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
23/23/23                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV                                          
1024 AM EDT FRI APR 7 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
LAST OF MORNING SHRA/TSRA POISED TO EXIT NE CORNER OF CWA. SOME                 
WEAKENING HAS BEEN OCCURRING AS NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS.                
CWA WILL ENJOY A BRIEF BREAK FROM PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATER THIS                
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
FOCUS NOW SHIFTS TO CONVECTION EXPECTED AFTER 21Z OR SO. LOOKING                
LIKE A BAND WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG APPROACHING FRONT...FED BY LOW                
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THIS ZONE WILL BE BACK NEAR CMH AROUND                       
00Z...DROPPING TO NEAR A HTS/CKB LINE BY 03Z...AND APPROACHING BKW              
BY 06Z. ANOTHER POSSIBLE FOCUSING MECHANISM WILL BE BOUNDARY LAID               
DOWN BY CONVECTION THIS MORNING FROM CVG TO PKB. RUC SEEMS TO PICK              
UP ON THIS. THIS IS EVIDENT ON SURFACE OBS...WITH 55 DEGREES AT                 
PKB AND 71 AT CRW AT 14Z. COULD SEE SOME EARLIER DEVELOPMENT HERE               
AS INSTABILITY BUILDS.                                                          
FOR NOW...BETTING ON LATER BOUNDARY TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS...AND AS               
SUCH KEPT LATER POPS THE WAY THEY WERE. REDUCED POPS BEFORE 18Z AS              
IT WILL TAKE A FEW HOURS FOR INSTABILITY TO BUILD. UPPED HIGH TEMPS             
ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF REGION...AND DROPPED THEMA BIT IN RAIN                  
COOLED AREA.  PLENTY TO MONITOR THIS AFTERNOON.                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 422 AM EDT FRI APR 7 2006/                                             
SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                   
WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH IS EVIDENT ON SFC OBS DEWPOINT                          
DISCONTINUITY. RADAR SHOWS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING MAINLY                     
EAST...MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF WEST VIRGINIA AND              
SOUTHEAST OHIO. VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE AS                
THEY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO...BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED THIS                    
MORNING.                                                                        
NAM AND LOCAL WRF MODELS SHOWING DESCENT MUCAPE OF NEAR 2500 J/KG...            
LOW LEVEL MOIST CONVERGENCE...AND LIFTED INDEX OF -4 C...SUGGEST                
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS                  
SOUTHEAST OHIO...ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND ALONG THE OHIO               
RIVER IN WEST VIRGINIA. SPC HAS THIS AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR               
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT. INCLUDED STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND               
SMALL HAIL WITH THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH.                        
SOUTHERLY WEAK FLOW WILL BECOME GENTLE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY MID                
MORNING AND STRONG AND GUSTY FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.            
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU THE AREA AROUND 06Z TONIGHT.                
WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S                         
LOWLANDS...RANGING TO LOWER 60S OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE NORTHERN             
MOUNTAINS. TWEAKED LOCAL MOS TEMPS FOR HIGHS TODAY...AND WENT CLOSE             
TO MAV NUMBERS FOR LOWS TONIGHT.                                                
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                        
HAVE SHRUNK THE LINE BETWEEN PRECIPITATION AND DRY WEATHER                      
SATURDAY...AS IT CONTINUES TO BE EVIDENT THAT LITTLE SHOULD OCCUR               
BEHIND THE THIN LINE OF CONVECTION THAT WILL CROSS OVERNIGHT                    
TONIGHT.  OUR LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL BE REPLACED BY A                
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.                 
THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE SFC HIGH SHOULD BE OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO             
MONDAY MORNING.  AS FOR THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE                
REMAINDER OF THE TIME PERIOD...DID NOT ADD ANYTHING TO OUR DRY                  
PATTERN THAT WILL SET UP THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.  ANOTHER CHANGE              
WILL BE THE RETURN OF LIGHTER WINDS THAT WE ARE MORE USE TO...AS                
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.  NO EDITS WERE DONE TO THE FORECAST PAST               
TUESDAY.                                                                        
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 /ISSUED 155 AM EDT FRI APR 7 2006/                                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
LATEST SFC OBS SHOW DEWPOINT WARM FRONT ALREADY NORTH OF PKB AND                
EKN.  RADAR SHOWS RAIN SHOWERS MOVING EAST NORTHEAST MAINLY ACROSS              
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...TO AFFECT PKB...CKB...EKN ON AND OFF            
THRU AT LEAST 10Z. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS COULD STILL AFFECT THE              
SOUTHERN SITES...CRW...HTS...AND BKW SO INCLUDE RAIN IN A TEMPO                 
OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART WITH OCCASIONALLY                   
MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WITHIN RAIN SHOWERS.                         
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST AND                 
BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TONIGHT AROUND 03-06Z SAT. WILL HAVE            
A CLOSER TIMING ON NEXT TAF ISSUANCE.                                           
&&                                                                              
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WV...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...CL                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   wv                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
453 PM CDT FRI APR 7 2006                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FORECAST CONCERNS...                                                            
WIND AND SHOWER TRENDS INTO THE EVENING...                                      
DEEP/NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS               
WILL BEGIN TO FILL AS IT SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO THE OZARKS TONIGHT.              
HOWEVER...STRONG LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS WILL CONTINUE                
TO AFFECT AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE TURNPIKE INTO THE EVENING                 
AND WE WILL EXTENDED WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 03Z (10 PM). SHOWERS WILL              
ALSO CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL AROUND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION                
THOUGH GENERALLY WANING THRU THE EVENING HOURS. MODIFIED POINT                  
SOUNDINGS AND RUC MESO ANALYSIS SUGGEST SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WILL              
EXIST ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS UNTIL DARK...WITH             
0-3KM CAPES OF 75-100 J/KG. PERIODS OF SURFACE HEATING MAY GIVE A               
LOCAL BOOST TO THESE VALUES...LEADING TO THE REMOTE POTENTIAL OF                
ISOLATED UPDRAFT ENHANCEMENT FOR A BRIEF STRONG STORM AND EVEN                  
WEAK/BRIEF FUNNEL. ALREADY HAD ONE REPORT OF SOME ROTATION WITH A               
SHOWER SOUTHEAST OF WICHITA AREA EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...AND NOT               
TOO UNCOMMON UNDER THIS TYPE OF UPPER LOW REGIME. OTHERWISE...THE               
CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL DECREASE/DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER MIDNIGHT                 
ALONG WITH THE WINDS FOR MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.              
ONLY SLIGHT TWEAKS TO GOING FORECAST NEEDED.                                    
FAIR WEATHER WITH A STEADY MODERATING TREND EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY                
NIGHT AND MONDAY...AS UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST FROM THE ROCKIES                  
ACROSS THE MIDWEST. AGAIN LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED TO GOING FORECAST                
TRENDS WITH MAXS WELL INTO THE 70S BY MONDAY AND SOUTH WINDS INTO               
THE WINDY CATEGORY. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OUTER PERIODS AS WELL                  
AND WILL CONTINUE MODEST CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY AS UPPER TROF                  
EJECTS QUICKLY ACROSS THE PLAINS. BUILDING UPPER RIDGE THEREAFTER               
TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE PLEASANTLY WARM SIDE...GENERALLY IN                 
THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.                     
DARMOFAL                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    37  60  37  70 /  30   0   0   0                                
HUTCHINSON      35  60  37  71 /  20   0   0   0                                
NEWTON          36  59  36  69 /  30   0   0   0                                
ELDORADO        37  59  36  69 /  40   0   0   0                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   38  61  37  71 /  30   0   0   0                                
RUSSELL         31  58  37  72 /  10   0   0   0                                
GREAT BEND      32  59  38  72 /  10   0   0   0                                
SALINA          34  59  36  71 /  20   0   0   0                                
MCPHERSON       35  60  37  71 /  20   0   0   0                                
COFFEYVILLE     39  59  35  69 /  40   0   0   0                                
CHANUTE         37  57  35  68 /  40   0   0   0                                
IOLA            37  57  35  68 /  40   0   0   0                                
PARSONS-KPPF    39  59  35  69 /  40   0   0   0                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM FRIDAY FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-067>069-                
082-083-091>093.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                              
348 PM CDT FRI APR 7 2006                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CLOUDS AND RAIN HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA UNDER THE UPPER                    
LOW...WHICH HAS ROTATED BACK OVER THE STATE. EXPECT GENERALLY LESS              
THAN HALF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE PRECIPITATION AS AIR                
MASS IS PRETTY STABLE...PWS ARE LESS THAN AN INCH...AND SYSTEM MOVES            
OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.                                                   
WINDS WILL BE CONCERN AS SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTHWARD. AS THE SURFACE LOW            
MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST MO THIS EVENING...TIGHT GRADIENT BEHIND WILL               
SHIFT OVER THE FA GENERALLY BETWEEN 4PM AND 8PM. GRADIENT ALONE                 
SUGGESTS SUSTAINED WINDS COULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW 30 MPH...BUT 850MB            
WINDS ON THE RUC MOVING AROUND THE UPPER TROF SHOW WINDS 45-50 MPH              
MAINLY WEST OF AN EMPORIA TO MARYSVILLE LINE. THINK THE PRECIP BAND             
MAY MIX SOME OF THESE DOWN AND BOOST SURFACE WINDS AND GUSTS FOR A              
FEW HOURS OUT WEST AND WILL THEREFORE HOIST A WIND ADVISORY FOR                 
THESE LOCALES.  PRECIP ENDS QUICKLY LATE EVENING...AND SHOULD GET TO            
CLEAR SKIES FOR SATURDAY ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES PROBABLY WONT MAKE IT            
OUT OF THE UPPER 50S MOST AREAS.                                                
SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE CWA WILL BEGIN TO PULL EASTWARD                
INTO MO WITH LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA AFTER                
MIDNIGHT. SOME FROST POTENTIAL IN FAVORED LOW LYING AREAS WITH THE              
CLEAR SKIES AND INITIAL VERY LIGHT WINDS...BUT SOME CONCERN ABOUT               
RETURN FLOW PRODUCING ENOUGH MIXING TO LIMIT FROST FORMATION LATER              
IN THE NIGHT. NEXT COUPLE OF SHIFTS WILL NEED TO REEVALUATE THE                 
FROST POTENTIAL AND MAY NEED TO ADD TO THE GRIDS IF MIXING AND                  
RETURN FLOW IS DELAYED. EITHER WAY...LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID             
30S STILL LOOKS PRETTY CLOSE WITH THE COOLER TEMPS IN THE LOW LYING             
AREAS OF THE KS RIVER. THE RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL             
AID IN TEMPS RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES. WITH                 
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH 850 WINDS CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AND 850 TEMPS                  
RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS DEGREES C...SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO              
EVEN WARMER TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE 70S BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.                      
NEXT SHORTWAVE EMERGING INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL                 
ARRIVE ON TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS              
THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WAVE IS NOT AS              
STRONG AS EARLIER MODEL RUNS AS IT MOVES INTO THE UPPER RIDGE OVER              
THE PLAINS AND LIFTS FURTHER NORTH. AS A RESULT...CONVERGENCE ALONG             
THE FRONT IS NOT AS STRONG AND LIFT APPEARS WEAKER. HOWEVER...IS                
STILL APPEARS A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF             
THE FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN                  
ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN DRY            
ON WEDNESDAY AS BOUNDARY STALLS TO THE SOUTH AND WASHES OUT/LIFTS               
BACK TO THE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO             
THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN U.S....WITH LEESIDE TROUGHING STRENGTHENING                
AGAIN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPS TO BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER              
70S WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT FCST DRY...BUT IF             
THE UPPER TROUGH EJECTS OUT QUICKER INTO THE PLAINS BY THE END OF               
THE WEEK...MAY NEED TO CONSIDER ADDING POPS TO FRIDAY.                          
&&                                                                              
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM ALONG               
AND TO THE WEST OF A WASHINGTON...MANHATTAN TO COUNCIL GROVE LINE.              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
550 PM EDT FRI APR 7 2006                                                       
.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER QUEBEC AND SHORTWAVE OVER THE                
GREAT PLAINS WILL COMBINE OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS TO FORM A BROAD             
LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL PUSH OVER THE EAST COAST BY SUNDAY.                  
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE MIDWEST DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AS HIGH            
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CHARGES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  THIS WILL                
HELP TEMPERATURES REBOUND VIA WARM AIR ADVECTION AND DRY WEATHER TO             
RETURN TO MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTER A DAY OR TWO OF                   
COOL/WET CONDITIONS.  IN THE MEANTIME...SURFACE/RUC ANALYSIS                    
WV/IR/VIS IMAGERY SHOW TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS...ONE OVER QUEBEC AND               
THE OTHER OVER KANSAS.  A SHORTWAVE IS SWINGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS                
LAKE SUPERIOR ATTM.  SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER                   
EASTERN KANSAS WITH A WARM FRONT LYING ACROSS NORTHERN ILL/IND/OH.              
A SECONDARY TROUGH IS MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MI WITH COOLER            
TEMPS AND DWPTS...AND GUSTY NE WINDS BEHIND IT.  CURRENT RADAR IS               
SHOWING SMALL AREA OF PRECIP STRETCHING FROM EAST TAWAS TO CENTRAL              
WISCONSIN ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/-DIV Q/AND FGEN                
BAND.  MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE PRECIP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN            
PART OF THE CWA...THEN THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS/PRECIP            
CHANCES FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.                                              
TONIGHT...NAM/GFS SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF 850-700MB DRY AIR (RH                
15-25%) CLEARING THE AREA BY 00Z THIS EVENING WHILE THE 500 MB                  
SHORTWAVE DOES NOT PASS SOUTH OF THE CWA UNTIL 03Z.  HOWEVER...WITH             
FGEN AND 700-500MB -DIV Q HANGING ON ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN                
PART OF THE CWA...WILL NOT REMOVE POPS (GLADWIN AND ARENAC                      
COUNTIES) UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE FINALLY CLEARS THE AREA.  SO...WILL               
LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW FOR            
THE AFOREMENTIONED COUNTIES THIS EVENING.  ACROSS THE REST OF THE               
CWA...HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHERLY WINDS SETTLE INTO THE AREA.                   
TEMPERATURES AT THE TOP OF THE 3.5-4KFT MIXED LAYER WILL RANGE FROM             
-8C TO -11C OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING DELTA T'S COOL ENOUGH FOR LAKE                
INDUCED CLOUDS (10C TO 13C) COVER NORTHERLY FLOW AFFECTED REGIONS.              
850MB-700MB RH VALUES WILL START OUT MINISCULE AT 00Z (RH 15-20%)               
BUT IMPROVE TO GREATER THAN 70 PERCENT BY 12Z OVER EASTERN UPPER AND            
NE LOWER. WILL LEAVE FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT BUT WILL            
REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING SNOW SHOWERS.  WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE             
OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL IN SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA RANGE.                            
.LONG TERM...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF              
NEXT WEEK WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED.              
BIGGEST MODEL DISCREPANCY CENTERS AROUND THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE               
RIDGE WHICH WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE                
WEEKEND AND FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEMS TO                
IMPACT THE REGION WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT AND LATE THURSDAY                   
NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHING THE             
SYSTEM NORTHWEST OF THE CWA. MAIN LONG TERM CONCERNS FOCUS ON CHANCE            
OF PRECIPITATION/TYPE SATURDAY MORNING AND PRECIPITATION FOR TUESDAY            
NIGHT AND LATE THURSDAY/FRIDAY.                                                 
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS              
THE NORTHERN REACHES OF THE CWA WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAINING              
AROUND -8C THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE TROUGH PASSING TO THE                
NORTH 850-700 MB LAYER RH WILL BE 60 PCT OVER NORTHERN LOWER AND 75             
PCT IN EASTERN UPPER. EVEN WITH THE MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN...IT WILL            
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE -13C TO -20C LAYER SUBSTANTIALLY LIMITING SNOW            
FALL POTENTIAL. LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THE             
TROUGH SLIDES EAST WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH (850-700             
MB LAYER RH DECREASES TO LESS THAN 60 PCT BY 00Z). WITH THOSE                   
FACTORS IN MIND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE OF FLURRIES ACROSS                
EASTERN UPPER AND THE N AND NNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT AREAS OF NORTHERN              
LOWER. WITH THE TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING...HIGH                 
PRESSURE AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ENDING            
THE THREAT OF FLURRIES AND DIMINISHING THE CLOUD COVER.                         
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE JUST EAST OF THE             
REGION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING FURTHER OVER THE WESTERN             
GREAT LAKES. WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS ENVELOPING THE AREA WAA WILL                  
SLOWLY EDGE TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARD NORMAL (LOWER 50S FOR MOST                 
LOCATIONS). SUNDAY NIGHT ANOTHER MINOR SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS             
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ACROSS EASTERN UPPER. GFS HAS                  
AMPLIFIED THIS FEATURE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS WHILE OTHER MODELS            
KEEP THE SYSTEM AS AN OPEN WAVE WITH MUCH LESS MOISTURE. AS A RESULT            
HAVE TRENDED AWAY FROM THE GFS AND GONE WITH A ECMWF/NAM BLEND. WITH            
THE SOUTHERLY BREEZES SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE WAA CONTINUING WILL                  
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO STAY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...BOTTOMING             
OUT NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE CWA.                   
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER WESTERN                 
NEBRASKA WITH ANOTHER MINOR SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING MINNESOTA.               
THE GFS AGAIN OVER-DEEPENS THE TROUGH...SO WILL TREND TOWARD THE                
ECMWF AND NAM BLEND AGAIN. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PARTLY SUNNY DAY               
WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AS THE              
BEST MOISTURE WILL BE IN THIS REGION. MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW PRESSURE             
FROM NEBRASKA WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAKOTA/S AND INTO                 
SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THIS WILL KEEP THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WAA OVER              
THE REGION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER LAKE                   
MICHIGAN RESULTS WILL BE ANOTHER TRANQUIL NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN            
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S (SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL).                                
TUESDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL              
SLOWLY EDGE EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING ALLOWING A COLD FRONT            
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN MANITOBA TO PUSH THROUGH MICHIGAN TUESDAY            
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH PRELIMINARY DYNAMICS APPEAR WEAK WITH             
THE COLD FRONT THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY SO WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF            
THUNDER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY                  
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY WITH THE NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER                    
ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY/FRIDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE MODERATE WITH              
THIS SYSTEM SO HAVE ADDED A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE                   
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.                           
&&                                                                              
.APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
430 PM EDT FRI APR 7 2006                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS SHIFT FROM LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW TONIGHT INTO               
EARLY SAT TO SHRA/TSRA CHANCES NEXT WEEK.                                       
WV IMAGERY...12Z RAOBS AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A HIGH AMPLITUDE              
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH THE UPR GREAT LAKES DOMINATED BY NRN STREAM             
NW MID/UPR LVL FLOW AROUND A CLOSED LOW SE OF JAMES BAY. ANOTHER                
POTENT CLOSED LOW WAS SPINNING OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS DOWNSTREAM FROM            
A RDG FROM THE SW CONUS INTO CNTRL CANADA. A SHRTWV TROF THAT                   
HELPED SUPPORT A PERIOD OF -SHSN WAS SLIDING SSE THROUGH UPR MI. THE            
18Z KCMX TAMDAR SNDG INVERSION HGT TEMP AT 840 MB NEAR -14C...WHICH             
WAS COLDER THAN BOTH THE GFS(-12C) AND NAM(-10C) FCSTS... PROVIDED              
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THE LES. HOWEVER THE -SHSN HAS QUICKLY                   
DIMINISHED THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF SUBSIDENCE                  
BEHIND THE SHRTWV AND DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING. UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS HAD            
FALLEN TO NEAR 10F WITH FAIRLY LARGE 1000-850 DEWPOINT                          
DEPRESSIONS...PER 16Z KINL TAMDAR SNDG.                                         
TONIGHT...EXPECT THAT THE THE LES WILL CONTINUE TO FADE THIS EVENING            
AS THE DRIER AIR AND ACYC FLOW SPREAD THROUGH UPR MI AND                        
INVERSION HGTS LOWER BEHIND THE SHRTWV. ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV UPSTREAM            
OVER NRN ONTARIO WAS MOVING TO THE SSE BUT SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH             
E SO THAT IT WILL HAVE ONLY A MINOR IMPACT ON THE WEATHER OVER THE              
CWA. TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS SHOULD ALLOW LAKE CLOUDS AND SOME                   
INCREASE IN CONVERGENCE TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAKE. IN ADDITION...A               
SECONDARY 900-700 THERMAL TROF WILL SLIDE THROUGH MAINLY THE E HLF              
OF LK SUPERIOR. GIVEN THE AFTERNOON OBS...THE COLDER GFS 900-850 MB             
TEMPS NEAR -12C OVER E LK SUPERIOR WERE PREFERRED. SO...WITH ONLY               
MARGINAL INSTABILITY...ONLY PATCHY/SCT FLURRIES AT MOST ARE EXPECTED            
MAINLY OVER THE ERN CWA. THE COLDER TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE                     
INVERSION SHOULD ALSO MINIMIZE ANY THREAT FOR -FZDZ.                            
SATURDAY...WITH LOWERING INVERSION HGTS...INCREASED UPSTREAM MIXING             
AND BACKING WINDS...REMAINING FLURRIES OVER THE E HLF SHOULD END BY             
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...MIXING TO 850 MB(-5C) SHOULD PUSH TEMPS INTO             
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER AND MID 40S.                                            
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUN...MDLS SUGGEST ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV IN NW                
FLOW REGIME AND ASSOCIATED 300K ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BRING A BATCH OF            
MID CLOUDS THROUGH THE AREA SAT NIGHT. THIS MAY KEEP TEMPS FROM                 
DROPPING OFF AS MUCH DESPITE PRESENCE OF SFC RDGING OVER THE AREA.              
SUNSHINE AND RETURN FLOW SRLY FLOW WAA SUPPORTS TEMPS INTO THE MID              
50S AS MDLS PUSH H8 TEMPS TO NEAR 1C. GRADIENT SHOULD STILL BE WEAK             
ENOUGH FOR LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT OFF OF LK SUPERIOR.                          
MON...THE 12Z GFS WAS MUCH STRONGER WITH A LEAD SHRTWV MOVING                   
THROUGH THE SRN CANADA RDG. TRENDS FROM THE 00Z/12 12Z/07 ECMWF ALSO            
HINTS AT THE FEATURE BUT WAS MUCH WEAKER AND FARTHER TO THE NORTH.              
SINCE THE GFS WAS A LARGE DEPARTURE FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN AND WAS               
LIKELY CONTAMINATED BY CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...PER HPC DIAGNOSTIC                 
DISC...PREFERRED TO KEEP DRY FCST...IN LINE WITH CONTINUITY.                    
TUE-FRI...GIVEN A TREND TOWARD PATTERN AMPLIFICATION...THE SLOWER               
ECMWF WAS PREFERRED IN BRINGING MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED SHRA/TSRA               
CHANCES INTO UPR MI TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. FOLLOWING A COMBINATION OF              
THE ECMWF AND GFS ENS MEAN SUGGESTS THAT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE                 
THROUGH EARLY WED WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS WITH              
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IF THE MID LVL TROF IS STRONGER AND FAR ENOUGH             
S. A HEDGE TOWARD THE ENS MEAN WOULD BRING IN SHOWER CHANCES                    
AGAIN BY LATER FRIDAY WITH WAA AND RETURN OF MOISTURE WITH NEXT MID             
LVL TROF EDGES INTO THE PLAINS.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JLB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
148 PM EDT FRI APR 7 2006                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATE PART TWO. TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL IN FACE OF STRONG COLD AIR              
ADVECTION. READINGS ARE NOW AS COLD AS THE MIDDLE 20S OVR THE HIGHER            
TERRAIN OF THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. WHERE SUNSHINE IS                   
APPEARING (SW UPR MI) TEMPS ARE AT LEAST BECOMING MORE STEADY AROUND            
30F. ADDED SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS INTO NW AND NCNTRL AS FLURRIES ARE            
A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD AND VIBILITIES HAVE LOWERED OCCASIONALLY TO               
LESS THAN 3SM. ALTHOUGH HIGHER SUN ANGLE IS NOT HELPING TO WARM AIR             
TEMPERATURES IT IS HELPING TO MELT THE SNOW THAT IS OCCURRING.                  
THUS...DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMS ABOVE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. TAIL             
OF SHORTWAVE OVR QUEBEC SHIFTS SWD OUT OF AREA LATE THIS AFTN WITH              
TEMPS IN THE H9-H85 LAYER BEGINNING TO WARM. THUS...EXPECT COVERAGE             
AND INTENSITY OF SNOW SHOWERS TO DIMINISH BY LATE AFTN. STILL MAY               
SEE A SLIGHT RISE IN TEMPS IF CLOUDS BREAK A BIT MORE. UPDATED AND              
PUBLISHED GRIDS ARE OUT. TEXT ZFPMQT UPDATE SHORTLY.                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT)...                                      
THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE ARE WITH THE WINDS                 
TODAY AND THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.                                  
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/NAM SHOWING DEEP LOWS OVER NORTHEAST                
KANSAS AND OVER SOUTHERN JAMES BAY...WITH A RIDGE SEPARATING THESE              
EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH WISCONSIN...INTO NORTH             
DAKOTA. ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH                 
MONTANA INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A LOW              
OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS EAST FROM THIS LOW            
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. A FRONT ALSO               
RUNS WEST FROM THE NEBRASKA LOW THROUGH WYOMING AND WESTERN MONTANA.            
A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER CENTRAL CANADA.                                           
THE JAMES BAY MID LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT INTO SOUTHWEST QUEBEC...                 
WHILE THE LOW OVER NORTH KANSAS SLIDES INTO OKLAHOMA TODAY. A                   
WEAK SHORTWAVE WRAPPING AROUND THE JAMES BAY LOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH             
THE FORECAST AREA. SOUNDINGS SHOWING AN INVERSION AT AROUND 3.5K                
FEET. CONDITIONS ARE VERY DRY ABOVE THE INVERSION BUT RATHER HIGH RH            
JUST BELOW THIS LEVEL. THEREFORE...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDS.              
THE FORECAST MODELS SHOW THAT IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY DRY AT              
THE SURFACE. THEREFORE...THE SNOW WILL HAVE TO SATURATE OUT THE LOW             
LEVELS BEFORE GETTING TO THE SURFACE. SURFACE TO 900MB LAPSE RATE               
WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 8.5-9.5C/KM. STRONGEST 900MB OMEGA WILL BE              
NORTH OF M-28 FROM KIWD TO KSAW. I WILL BE LOOKING FOR A CHANCE OF              
SOME FLURRIES THERE TODAY. A WARMING AT THE SURFACE WILL REDUCE                 
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE AFTERNOON...AS THE RH LOWERS THROUGH             
THE DAY. THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL ALLOW SOME OF WINDS AT 925MB              
TO MIX TO SURFACE ESPECIALLY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. SO WILL KEEP SOME              
BREEZY GUSTY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY.                                        
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE QUEBEC LOW WILL              
SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE CANADIAN SURFACE WILL              
SLIDE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LAYER AROUND 900MB              
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MOIST WHICH WILL HELP IN PRODUCING SOME                      
PRECIPITATION. MODELS SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW NEARLY DRY AT THE              
SURFACE...AND SURFACE-900MB LAPSE RATE AROUND 8.5C/KM. TEMPERATURES             
WILL BE WELL BELOW FREEZING...THEREFORE...LOOKING FOR A CHANCE OF               
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES OVERNIGHT. TRAJECTORY FORECAST AND                  
GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THE OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID TO            
LOW 20S WHICH WITH THE EXPECTED WINDS AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS SOUND               
REASONABLE.                                                                     
ANOTHER VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY.            
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXPAND TO BLANKET THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON               
SATURDAY AND SLIDE INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THE AIR                
MASS WILL BE VERY STABLE AND DRY WHICH WILL KEEP FAIR CONDITIONS                
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.                                                            
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS IT SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT                
LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE SHIFTING THROUGH THIS RIDGE             
WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. A LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER            
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A COLD FRONT. A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL OCCUR              
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE DRAWING WARMER MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF             
INTO THE AREA.  THE NORTHERN PLAINS LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST             
AREA LATE ON TUESDAY AND BRING AN INCREASE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE             
REGION.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...JLA                                                                    
PREV DISCUSSION...DLG                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
425 PM CDT FRI APR 7 2006                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
NO NEED FOR CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.               
THE MODELS HAVE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES...BUT OVERALL STILL LOOKS               
LIKE THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS           
CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...DEWPOINTS ACTUALLY                 
CLIMBED INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S. RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS 3 HOUR                   
PRESSURE FALLS FROM 3-4MB ACROSS THE AREA AND SURFACE LI VALUES WERE            
FROM 6-7C FROM JAN TO GLH...IN THE AREA WHERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED.            
THE BEST MOISTURE WAS ALSO IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA. SUPERCELLS HAVE            
STARTED TO DEVELOP...MAINLY OVER THE DELTA...WHERE THEY WERE EXPECTED           
TO DEVELOP INITIALLY. TRAINING STORMS MAY BRING THE FLASH FLOOD                 
PROBLEMS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT ALSO. THE CAP CONTINUES TO ERODE...SO THE           
ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE QUICKLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE LATEST SOUNDING       
SHOWS STEEP LAPSE RATES...A 45KT LLJ AND AT LEAST 45KTS OF SHEAR.               
HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN A CAP OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNTIL 3Z.             
SO EXPECTING THE AXIS TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS              
OF THE CWA BY 6PM AND INTO THE EASTERN ZONES AROUND 8-9 PM. WITH                
STORMS DEVELOPING LATER THAN EXPECTED...NOT SURE ACTIVITY WILL END              
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HELD STORMS THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL            
AND EAST AND A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING FOR THE EAST.                    
BASICALLY THE FORECAST HAS HANDLED THIS SYSTEM WELL FOR THE LAST FEW            
DAYS...SO NEED FOR ADJUSTMENTS.                                                 
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE GOING LONG TERM FORECAST.                          
LONG TERM MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT              
THAT THE ARKLAMISS REGION WILL GENERALLY BE AWAY FROM THE FIRING                
LINES OF UPPER JET ENERGY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. THAT SAID...A FAST               
MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL TRY TO MAKE HEADWAY INTO THE TOP END OF AN              
UPPER RIDGE PROTECTING THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE...IN                 
COMBINATION WITH A LITTLE MOISTURE TRYING TO SNEAK IN FROM THE                  
ARKLATEX...MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET SOME CONVECTION GOING (ESPECIALLY UP            
NORTH). THE UPPER RIDGE MAY REMAIN A LITTLE "DIRTY" THROUGH THE                 
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THIS INITIAL DISTURBANCE...AND            
WILL THEREFORE KEEP THE LOW AND SPORADIC POPS THE 00Z MEX                       
ADVERTISED.                                                                     
OTHERWISE...EXPECT GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY (TO SOMETIMES MOSTLY                 
CLEAR) SKIES THROUGH THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES              
WILL TEND A HAIR BELOW NORMAL THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH                  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...BUT EXPECT A MODERATION UP TO                
NORMAL LEVELS (HIGHS NEAR 80/LOWS NEAR 60) DURING THE LATTER HALF OF            
THE PERIOD. REMAINED ALMOST RIGHT WITH 00Z MEX FOR ALL TEMPS. /BB/              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       62  70  43  71 /  85   7   0   0                                  
MERIDIAN      63  74  41  74 / 100  19   0   0                                  
VICKSBURG     61  69  44  71 /  60   5   0   0                                  
HATTIESBURG   67  75  44  75 /  60  13   0   0                                  
NATCHEZ       61  70  44  71 /  48   4   0   0                                  
GREENVILLE    59  65  40  68 /  71   5   0   0                                  
GREENWOOD     60  65  40  70 /  85   9   0   0                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
07/50                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ms                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
143 PM CDT FRI APR 7 2006                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO ADD THE WATCH AND ADJUST THE WEATHER GRIDS.               
TEMPERATURES STILL SEEM TO BE ON TRACK. WITH SIGNIFICANT WEATHER                
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...OPTED NOT TO           
ISSUE LKY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ALONG THE RIVER REMAIN AROUND 20KTS             
WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. STORMS               
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTHWEST AND TRACK OFF NORTHEAST...JUST            
MISSING THE CWA. WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL HAS OCCURRED...SO EXPECTING IT           
ONCE THINGS GET STARTED. RUC THETA E VALUES WERE AROUND 345K AND                
QUICKLY SPREADING NORTHEAST. STILL EXPECTING THE STORMS TO DEVELOP              
OVER THE DELTA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND SHIFT SOUTH...WITH                   
ACTIVITY BEING DELAYED TO AFTER 4 FOR THE JACKSON METRO AREA.                   
SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A CAP OVER THE AREA...BUT THERE WAS PLENTY OF              
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. ANYWAY...NO REAL CHANGES FOR THE SHORT TERM.              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED ACTIVITY...SO TRIED TO ADJUST THE TIMING.             
WITH NO OBS COMING IN FOR GLH...HAD TO NIL THE TAF FOR NOW.                     
ANYWAY...DELAYED ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT UNTIL ABOUT 4 OR 5 PM             
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. MAINTAINED HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS FOR ALL                
GROUPS THROUGH THE EVENING. STILL EXPECTING STORMS TO END FROM THE              
WEST...WITH ACTIVITY ENDING IN GLH/GWO AROUND 6Z...JAN 6-8Z AND                 
HOLDING FOR GTR/MEI AND HBG THROUGH 12Z. BY 15Z VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD           
PREVAIL. A TROUGH AXIS WAS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST NORTH OF THE                   
AREA...SO CLOUDS MAY CLEAR BRIEFLY AND FILL BACK IN...BUT EXPECTING             
HEIGHTS TO REMAIN ABOVE 3KFT. A SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE AROUND GTR               
LATE IN THE MORNING...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...SO NOT               
LOOKING FOR ANY OBSTRUCTIONS TO THE VISIBILITIES.                               
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       85  62  69  43 /  42  85  17   6                                  
MERIDIAN      87  63  73  41 /  35 100  22   5                                  
VICKSBURG     84  61  68  44 /  42  60  15   7                                  
HATTIESBURG   86  67  77  46 /  15  60  23   1                                  
NATCHEZ       82  61  69  44 /  24  48  13   2                                  
GREENVILLE    81  59  61  41 /  67  71  10   5                                  
GREENWOOD     81  60  64  40 /  66  85  13   5                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
07                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ms                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO                                         
610 PM EDT FRI APR 7 2006                                                       
.SHORT TERM(TNGT)...                                                            
ADDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH...WILL REMOVE COUNITES AS SOON AS               
POSSIBLE.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TNGT)...                                                           
DENSE FOG ROLLING IN FROM THE LAKE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TYPICALLY             
THE DENSE FOG JUST LASTS A FEW HOURS. UPDATED LAKESHORE ZONES TO                
INDICATE THE FOG. WILL MONITOR AND UPDATE TO DENSE FOG ADVISORY IF              
NEEDED.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM(TNGT-SUN)...                                                        
SFC LOW PRES NOW NEAR KERI AND CONTINUING TO MOVE OFF TO THE E.                 
TRAILING FRONT NOW SLOWLY MOVING S AS SEEN BY LATEST SATELLITE                  
IMAGERY.  FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT AS FAR S AS KMFD BY 21Z AND BE WELL S            
OF THE AREA BY 00Z.  LOW CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR BEHIND FNT WILL PUT              
AN END TO THE TSRA THREAT.  FOR THE TIME BEING ONLY FAR SRN 1/3 TO              
1/2 OF ZONES HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO SEE T ACTIVITY AND THAT             
THREAT WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVE.  LATEST NAM...RUC AND              
GFS FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH TIMING OF FRONT AND LOW 1ST PERIOD.  VERY               
DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND FRONT TONIGHT BUT VERY STRONG LLVL                
INVERSION TO SET UP FOR FIRST 2/3 OF THE NIGHT.  COULD BE SUM SPITS             
OR SHRA THRU THE EARLY AM HOURS.  WAS EARLIER CONCERNED ABOUT                   
POSSIBLE FZDZ OVERNIGHT BUT NOW DRIER AIR COMES BEFORE TEMPS GET                
COLD ENUF.  850 MB TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND NEG 6 MIDDAY TOMORROW AND            
THEN START TO MODERATE.  COULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT SC TOMORROW AM BUT              
DO EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME M/SUNNY DURING THE AFT AS SFC TO 700 MB               
MEAN RH FALLS TO AROUND 30 PERCENT.  WILL BE CHILLY ALONG S SHORE OF            
LERI TOMORROW WITH NLY FLOW OFF LAKE.  SUN WILL GET OFF TO A COOL               
START WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD AT DAYBREAK.  HI TEMPS SUN WILL                   
AVERAGE AROUND NORMAL WITH A LOT OF SUNSHINE.                                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SUN NIGHT THROUGH FRI)...                                           
EXTENDED RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE BIG PICTURE             
TDA.  SO..FOR THE TIME BEING IT LOOKS WE SHOULD SEE A RELATIVELY                
QUIET EXTENDED PD WITH SPRING LIKE WX ONCE WE GET PAST THE WEEKEND.             
HIGH PRES WILL DIVE OVER THE WRN GRTLKS TOMORROW AND THEN BUILD                 
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THRU THE START OF THE NEW WORKWEEK.  HI                
SHOULD BE OVERHEAD SUNDAY AFT AND EVE AND THEN SHIFTS OFF TO THE                
EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVE.  SO AFTER A COOL WEEKEND WITH TEMPS                   
AVERAGING A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE MON              
AND TUE WITH HIGH TEMPS BOTH DAYS IN THE LOWER 60S.  BY EARLY                   
WED...THERE WILL BE ENUF WAA TO POSSIBLY CAUSE A FEW SHRA OR TSRA.              
MORE STORMS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO THU AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THRU             
REGION.  LINGERING SHRA IN THE E ON THU IN THE CAA BEHIND THE                   
BOUNDARY.  RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS REGION THU NIGHT AND WL BACK IN WAA              
FLOW BY END OF PD.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION(18Z-18Z)...                                                           
THE NORTHWARD TREND OF THE WARM ADVECTION HAS NOW BEGUN TO                      
RETREAT SOUTHWARD. AS EACH HOUR GOES BY THE NORTHERLY FLOW                      
WILL DIMINISH OUR CHANCE OF TSTMS AND SVR WX FOR EXTREME NRN                    
OHIO....FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF CLE...JUST A LITTLE SUNSHINE IS               
NEEDED TO GET THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE EVEN FURTHER. WE WILL               
CONT TO MONITOR FOR WX WATCH THIS AFTN POSSIBLY FOR OUR SRN CWA.                
AS THE WARM FRONT RETREATS SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT...THE COOLER               
AIR MASS WILL BRING NORTHERLY WINDS AND A SLIGT CHC OF MIXED                    
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TNGT. SOME LGT DRIZZLE WITH LOW CIGS IS A GOOD            
POSSIBILITY AS INDICATED ON BUFKIT SOUNDING. EXCEPT FOR SOME BRIEF              
VFR CONDS EARLY THIS AFTN VCNTY MFD LOOK FOR IFR OR NEAR IFR CONDS              
TO DOMINATE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.                                                
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
PA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...KUBINA/KIELTYKA                                                    
LONG TERM...KUBINA                                                              
AVIATION...BC                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO                                         
428 PM EDT FRI APR 7 2006                                                       
.SHORT TERM (TNGT)...                                                           
DENSE FOG ROLLING IN FROM THE LAKE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TYPICALLY             
THE DENSE FOG JUST LASTS A FEW HOURS. UPDATED LAKESHORE ZONES TO                
INDICATE THE FOG. WILL MONITOR AND UPDATE TO DENSE FOG ADVISORY IF              
NEEDED.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM(TNGT-SUN)...                                                        
SFC LOW PRES NOW NEAR KERI AND CONTINUING TO MOVE OFF TO THE E.                 
TRAILING FRONT NOW SLOWLY MOVING S AS SEEN BY LATEST SATELLITE                  
IMAGERY.  FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT AS FAR S AS KMFD BY 21Z AND BE WELL S            
OF THE AREA BY 00Z.  LOW CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR BEHIND FNT WILL PUT              
AN END TO THE TSRA THREAT.  FOR THE TIME BEING ONLY FAR SRN 1/3 TO              
1/2 OF ZONES HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO SEE T ACTIVITY AND THAT             
THREAT WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVE.  LATEST NAM...RUC AND              
GFS FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH TIMING OF FRONT AND LOW 1ST PERIOD.  VERY               
DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND FRONT TONIGHT BUT VERY STRONG LLVL                
INVERSION TO SET UP FOR FIRST 2/3 OF THE NIGHT.  COULD BE SUM SPITS             
OR SHRA THRU THE EARLY AM HOURS.  WAS EARLIER CONCERNED ABOUT                   
POSSIBLE FZDZ OVERNIGHT BUT NOW DRIER AIR COMES BEFORE TEMPS GET                
COLD ENUF.  850 MB TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND NEG 6 MIDDAY TOMORROW AND            
THEN START TO MODERATE.  COULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT SC TOMORROW AM BUT              
DO EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME M/SUNNY DURING THE AFT AS SFC TO 700 MB               
MEAN RH FALLS TO AROUND 30 PERCENT.  WILL BE CHILLY ALONG S SHORE OF            
LERI TOMORROW WITH NLY FLOW OFF LAKE.  SUN WILL GET OFF TO A COOL               
START WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD AT DAYBREAK.  HI TEMPS SUN WILL                   
AVERAGE AROUND NORMAL WITH A LOT OF SUNSHINE.                                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SUN NIGHT THROUGH FRI)...                                           
EXTENDED RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE BIG PICTURE             
TDA.  SO..FOR THE TIME BEING IT LOOKS WE SHOULD SEE A RELATIVELY                
QUIET EXTENDED PD WITH SPRING LIKE WX ONCE WE GET PAST THE WEEKEND.             
HIGH PRES WILL DIVE OVER THE WRN GRTLKS TOMORROW AND THEN BUILD                 
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THRU THE START OF THE NEW WORKWEEK.  HI                
SHOULD BE OVERHEAD SUNDAY AFT AND EVE AND THEN SHIFTS OFF TO THE                
EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVE.  SO AFTER A COOL WEEKEND WITH TEMPS                   
AVERAGING A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE MON              
AND TUE WITH HIGH TEMPS BOTH DAYS IN THE LOWER 60S.  BY EARLY                   
WED...THERE WILL BE ENUF WAA TO POSSIBLY CAUSE A FEW SHRA OR TSRA.              
MORE STORMS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO THU AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THRU             
REGION.  LINGERING SHRA IN THE E ON THU IN THE CAA BEHIND THE                   
BOUNDARY.  RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS REGION THU NIGHT AND WL BACK IN WAA              
FLOW BY END OF PD.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION(18Z-18Z)...                                                           
THE NORTHWARD TREND OF THE WARM ADVECTION HAS NOW BEGUN TO                      
RETREAT SOUTHWARD. AS EACH HOUR GOES BY THE NORTHERLY FLOW                      
WILL DIMINISH OUR CHANCE OF TSTMS AND SVR WX FOR EXTREME NRN                    
OHIO....FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF CLE...JUST A LITTLE SUNSHINE IS               
NEEDED TO GET THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE EVEN FURTHER. WE WILL               
CONT TO MONITOR FOR WX WATCH THIS AFTN POSSIBLY FOR OUR SRN CWA.                
AS THE WARM FRONT RETREATS SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT...THE COOLER               
AIR MASS WILL BRING NORTHERLY WINDS AND A SLIGT CHC OF MIXED                    
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TNGT. SOME LGT DRIZZLE WITH LOW CIGS IS A GOOD            
POSSIBILITY AS INDICATED ON BUFKIT SOUNDING. EXCEPT FOR SOME BRIEF              
VFR CONDS EARLY THIS AFTN VCNTY MFD LOOK FOR IFR OR NEAR IFR CONDS              
TO DOMINATE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.                                                
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
PA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...KUBINA/KIELTYKA                                                    
LONG TERM...KUBINA                                                              
AVIATION...BC                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO                                         
208 PM EDT FRI APR 7 2006                                                       
.SHORT TERM(TDY-SUN)...                                                         
SFC LOW PRES NOW NEAR KERI AND CONTINUING TO MOVE OFF TO THE E.                 
TRAILING FRONT NOW SLOWLY MOVING S AS SEEN BY LATEST SATELLITE                  
IMAGERY.  FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT AS FAR S AS KMFD BY 21Z AND BE WELL S            
OF THE AREA BY 00Z.  LOW CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR BEHIND FNT WILL PUT              
AN END TO THE TSRA THREAT.  FOR THE TIME BEING ONLY FAR SRN 1/3 TO              
1/2 OF ZONES HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO SEE T ACTIVITY AND THAT             
THREAT WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVE.  LATEST NAM...RUC AND              
GFS FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH TIMING OF FRONT AND LOW 1ST PERIOD.  VERY               
DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND FRONT TONIGHT BUT VERY STRONG LLVL                
INVERSION TO SET UP FOR FIRST 2/3 OF THE NIGHT.  COULD BE SUM SPITS             
OR SHRA THRU THE EARLY AM HOURS.  WAS EARLIER CONCERNED ABOUT                   
POSSIBLE FZDZ OVERNIGHT BUT NOW DRIER AIR COMES BEFORE TEMPS GET                
COLD ENUF.  850 MB TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND NEG 6 MIDDAY TOMORROW AND            
THEN START TO MODERATE.  COULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT SC TOMORROW AM BUT              
DO EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME M/SUNNY DURING THE AFT AS SFC TO 700 MB               
MEAN RH FALLS TO AROUND 30 PERCENT.  WILL BE CHILLY ALONG S SHORE OF            
LERI TOMORROW WITH NLY FLOW OFF LAKE.  SUN WILL GET OFF TO A COOL               
START WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD AT DAYBREAK.  HI TEMPS SUN WILL                   
AVERAGE AROUND NORMAL WITH A LOT OF SUNSHINE.                                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SUN NIGHT THROUGH FRI)...                                           
EXTENDED RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE BIG PICTURE             
TDA.  SO..FOR THE TIME BEING IT LOOKS WE SHOULD SEE A RELATIVELY                
QUIET EXTENDED PD WITH SPRING LIKE WX ONCE WE GET PAST THE WEEKEND.             
HIGH PRES WILL DIVE OVER THE WRN GRTLKS TOMORROW AND THEN BUILD                 
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THRU THE START OF THE NEW WORKWEEK.  HI                
SHOULD BE OVERHEAD SUNDAY AFT AND EVE AND THEN SHIFTS OFF TO THE                
EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVE.  SO AFTER A COOL WEEKEND WITH TEMPS                   
AVERAGING A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE MON              
AND TUE WITH HIGH TEMPS BOTH DAYS IN THE LOWER 60S.  BY EARLY                   
WED...THERE WILL BE ENUF WAA TO POSSIBLY CAUSE A FEW SHRA OR TSRA.              
MORE STORMS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO THU AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THRU             
REGION.  LINGERING SHRA IN THE E ON THU IN THE CAA BEHIND THE                   
BOUNDARY.  RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS REGION THU NIGHT AND WL BACK IN WAA              
FLOW BY END OF PD.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION(18Z-18Z)...                                                           
THE NORTHWARD TREND OF THE WARM ADVECTION HAS NOW BEGUN TO                      
RETREAT SOUTHWARD. AS EACH HOUR GOES BY THE NORTHERLY FLOW                      
WILL DIMINISH OUR CHANCE OF TSTMS AND SVR WX FOR EXTREME NRN                    
OHIO....FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF CLE...JUST A LITTLE SUNSHINE IS               
NEEDED TO GET THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE EVEN FURTHER. WE WILL               
CONT TO MONITOR FOR WX WATCH THIS AFTN POSSIBLY FOR OUR SRN CWA.                
AS THE WARM FRONT RETREATS SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT...THE COOLER               
AIR MASS WILL BRING NORTHERLY WINDS AND A SLIGT CHC OF MIXED                    
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TNGT. SOME LGT DRIZZLE WITH LOW CIGS IS A GOOD            
POSSIBILITY AS INDICATED ON BUFKIT SOUNDING. EXCEPT FOR SOME BRIEF              
VFR CONDS EARLY THIS AFTN VCNTY MFD LOOK FOR IFR OR NEAR IFR CONDS              
TO DOMINATE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.                                                
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
PA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...KUBINA                                                             
LONG TERM...KUBINA                                                              
AVIATION...BC                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                          
1235 PM CDT FRI APR 7 2006                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS                     
THORUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE EVEN MORE AND                
GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT                    
APPROACHES AND THEN PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. SIMILAR TO                          
YESTERDAY...THIS MAY MEAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF BLOWING DUST AT KABI                
FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.                 
WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING TIGHT...GUSTY WINDS WILL                   
PERSIST PAST SUNSET BEFORE WEAKENING LATER THIS EVENING.                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 631 AM CDT FRI APR 7 2006)                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR                 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND              
20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS WILL DOMINATE WEST CENTRAL TEXAS                
BEGINNING LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING UNTIL AROUND SUNSET THIS             
EVENING. LIKE YESTERDAY...BLOWING DUST MAY OCCASIONALLY REDUCE                  
THE VISIBILITY IN SOME LOCATIONS TO AROUND 2 MILES...MAINLY ALONG               
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 THIS AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING...A STRONG COLD         
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AND SHIFT WINDS TO              
THE NORTH. AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...EXPECT NORTH WINDS AROUND 10                
KNOTS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.                                                
PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 331 AM CDT FRI APR 7 2006)                           
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
LOOKS LIKE ONE MORE DAY OF WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS AS A LOW                   
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY PULLS OUT OF THE PLAINS TODAY. SFC DRYLINE               
REMAINS STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL TX ALONG I-35 THIS MORNING. THE                  
DRYLINE SHOULD MAKE SOME MORE EASTWARD PROGRESS TODAY AS SFC LOW                
PRESSURE IN S NEBRASKA PUSHES EAST. GFS/NAM 00Z INITIALIZATIONS                 
SEEM NOT TO RESOLVE A DEEP ENOUGH LOW PRESSURE WHICH MAY RESULT                 
IN A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS OVER THE REGION. THE 06Z                
RUC SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS WHICH SUPPORTS STRONGER               
WINDS IN THE 25-30KT RANGE LATE THIS MORNING. ALSO ANOTHER POTENT               
SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES SHOULD DIVE INTO THE BOTTOM OF               
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. THIS SHORTWAVE MAY ALSO AID IN                
TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AS WELL. FEEL PRESSURE GRADIENT                
WILL BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG WINDS SO WIND ADVISORY IS                
NEEDED FOR BIG COUNTRY...CONCHO VALLEY AND HEARTLAND. WITH DRY                  
AIR IN PLACE...ALSO NEED RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL AREAS. WINDS                  
SHOULD EXCEED CRITERIA ESPECIALLY IN THE BIG COUNTRY AND RELATIVE               
HUMIDITY SHOULD BE BELOW 20 PERCENT.                                            
DESPITE THE POOR INITIALIZATION OF THE NAM...MODELS CONTINUE TO                 
SUGGEST A STRONG COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH THE                  
NAM THE COLDEST BETWEEN IT AND THE GFS. COLD ADVECTION SHOULD                   
CONTINUE MOST OF SATURDAY WHICH WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES INTO THE                 
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR MOST AREAS. LOW TEMPS WILL FALL BACK                   
INTO THE 40S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD SPREAD OVER THE AREA                   
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DIGS OFF THE                        
CALIFORNIA COAST. EARLY NEXT WEEK SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT                
EAST ALLOWING FOR SOME RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF. WITH THE FRONT                 
PUSHING WELL INTO THE GULF...MOISTURE SHOULD BE SLOW TO RETURN.                 
LONG TERM...                                                                    
EARLY NEXT WEEK GFS/ECMWF AGREE WITH ONE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH               
SCREAMING INTO THE PLAINS ON MONDAY WITH MEAN TROUGH SITUATED OFF               
THE CALIFORNIA COAST. MODELS SEEM QUITE CONTENT TO KEEP A MEAN                  
TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WHICH                 
KEEPS UPPER RIDGING OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES                
TO REBOUND WELL INTO THE 80S FOR MAX TEMPS DURING THE WEEK.                     
FORECASTED TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE...BUT A PERHAPS A COUPLE                 
OF DEGREES WARMER ON MAX TEMPS AS LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINLY BE                 
FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR ESTABLISHED                    
ELEVATED MIX LAYER TO MIX DOWN RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPS THAN                   
WHAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. WILL TRY NOT TO GET TOO CARRIED AWAY AS                 
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GFS ENSEMBLE MOS NUMBERS...BUT STILL               
THINK TEMPS COULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S ESPECIALLY TOWARDS MID                
WEEK. RAIN CHANCES LOOK SLIM TO NONE AS ANY SHORTWAVE TROUGHS                   
LOOK TO PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE                   
SUFFICIENTLY CAPPED BY ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WITH 700MB TEMPS                    
RUNNING 8C-10C. THIS WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY THE FACT THAT MOISTURE               
WILL BE SLOW TO RETURN AND WILL BE SHALLOW AT BEST ESPECIALLY IN                
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.                                                      
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE                       
FOLLOWING ZONES: BROWN...CALLAHAN...COKE...COLEMAN...CONCHO...                  
CROCKETT...FISHER...HASKELL...IRION...JONES...KIMBLE...MASON...                 
MCCULLOCH...MENARD...NOLAN...RUNNELS...SAN SABA...SCHLEICHER...                 
SHACKELFORD...STERLING...SUTTON...TAYLOR...THROCKMORTON...AND                   
TOM GREEN.                                                                      
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING                
ZONES: BROWN...CALLAHAN...COKE...COLEMAN...CONCHO...FISHER...                   
HASKELL...IRION...JONES...MCCULLOCH...NOLAN...RUNNELS...SAN                     
SABA...SHACKELFORD...STERLING...TAYLOR...THROCKMORTON...AND TOM                 
GREEN.                                                                          
$$                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:                     
BROWN...CALLAHAN...COKE...COLEMAN...CONCHO...CROCKETT...FISHER...               
HASKELL...IRION...JONES...KIMBLE...MASON...MCCULLOCH...MENARD...                
NOLAN...RUNNELS...SAN SABA...SCHLEICHER...SHACKELFORD...                        
STERLING...SUTTON...TAYLOR...THROCKMORTON...AND TOM GREEN.                      
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BROWN...               
CALLAHAN...COKE...COLEMAN...CONCHO...FISHER...HASKELL...IRION...                
JONES...MCCULLOCH...NOLAN...RUNNELS...SAN SABA...SHACKELFORD...                 
STERLING...TAYLOR...THROCKMORTON...AND TOM GREEN.                               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
07                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX                                             
1131 AM CDT FRI APR 7 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
POTENT LOW OVER CENTRAL KANSAS CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD TOWARD              
OKLAHOMA. ALSO A COLD FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE               
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS DURING THE                    
AFTERNOON. PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED ACROSS THE REGION WITH               
MANY OF THE TEXAS TECH MESONET SITES REPORTING WINDS IN ADVISORY                
CRITERIA. LATEST RUC ALSO INDICATES WINDS TO STAY UP THROUGH THE                
AFTERNOON WHILE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH BEHIND FRONTAL              
PASSAGE. HAVE UPDATED WIND ADVISORY TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE FORECAST              
AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON. WILL SEND UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES ASAP.                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 314 AM CDT FRI APR 7 2006)                          
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
ANOTHER WINDY DAY IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN            
NEBRASKA THIS MORNING WILL BE SLOW TO PULL OUT AND FLOW AROUND IT               
WILL DOMINATE THE REGION. GUIDANCE TAKES THE LOW SE INTO EASTERN                
OKLA DURING THE DAY WITH STRONG NWERLY WINDS EXTENDING ACROSS WESTERN           
OKLA AND INTO WTX. ADDITIONALLY...A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS NE                
COLO AND NW KS AT 07Z WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE NRN CWA BY LATE                  
MORNING AND BRING A WIND SHIFT FROM THE NW TO THE NORTH AND WILL BE             
ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER INCREASE IN WIND SPEED...COOLER TEMPS...                 
SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AIR...AND PERHAPS LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS            
THE NRN ROLLING PLAINS.                                                         
THERE IS A LARGE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MAV/MET HIGH TEMPS FOR                      
TODAY...ALTHOUGH TIMING OF THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE SIMILAR. HAVE                
TRENDED SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE COOLER MET AS FRONT AND COOL AIR LOOK               
IMPRESSIVE ACROSS NE COLO/SRN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. IF FRONT IS                
SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN EXPECTED THE WARMER MAV NUMBERS WILL PROBABLY              
VERIFY.                                                                         
REGIONAL PROFILER ANALYSIS SHOWS 50 KTS AROUND 700 MB STRETCHING                
FROM NE NEW MEXICO INTO CENTRAL OKLA. THIS BAND SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT             
SE THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL LIKELY PUT THE NRN AND CENTRAL ROLLING              
PLAINS UNDER THE GUN FOR THE LONGEST PERIOD OF TIME FOR STRONG WINDS.           
THUS WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT            
BUT HOLD OFF ELSEWHERE. WIND SPEEDS WILL APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA             
ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHERN COUNTIES ONCE MIXING COMMENCES THIS                 
MORNING BUT HOPEFULLY THEY WILL ONLY PUSH CRITERIA BRIEFLY BEFORE               
TEMPORARILY RELAXING UNTIL FROPA.                                               
GUIDANCE ALSO HINTS AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A LOW CLOUD FIELD MOVING              
IN BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HAVE               
UPPED SKY COVER ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS FOR THIS EVE THRU TONIGHT.            
LONG TERM...                                                                    
RIDGING ALOFT THIS WEEKEND SHIFT EWD AS TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC                 
COAST DEVELOPS FURTHER. SWLY FLOW ALOFT MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY                 
WITH TROUGH WELL BACK TO OUR WEST WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP              
GENERATION. SHOULD SEE THE DRYLINE REDEVELOP MONDAY AND THEN SPEND              
THE NEXT FEW DAYS SLOSHING ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE CAPROCK AND                 
FURTHER EAST INTO NW TEXAS. HOWEVER CHANCES OF CONVECTIVE                       
INITIATION APPEAR SMALL GIVEN EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE CAP. FOR                 
TEMPS...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE LOOKS FINE. FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE                  
FCST.                                                                           
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN HALF            
OF THE CWA WHILE A DECENT NORTH-SOUTH TEMP GRADIENT (AND A LONGER               
PERIOD OF DRY WESTERLY FLOW) SHOULD PRODUCE THE LOWEST RH/S ACROSS              
THE SRN HALF. WILL ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE SRN HALF FROM 11            
AM TO 7 PM CDT. DESPITE THE FCST OF 20-FT WIND TO ONLY MARGINALLY               
MEET THE SPEED AND TEMPORAL CRITERIA...THE CONTINUING VERY DRY                  
CONDITIONS AND IMPENDING FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL              
PRODUCE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR DANGEROUS FIRE BEHAVIOUR. HAVE                 
DROPPED THE NRN ROW OF COUNTIES FROM THE FIRE WX WATCH AS IT APPEARS            
THAT THE COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE RH            
VALUES DURING THE AFTN...HOWEVER WITH THE STRONG WINDS FIRE DANGER              
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.                              
&&                                                                              
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:                     
COCHRAN...CROSBY...DICKENS...GARZA...HOCKLEY...KENT...KING...                   
LUBBOCK...LYNN...STONEWALL...TERRY...AND YOAKUM.                                
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:                        
BAILEY...BRISCOE...CASTRO...CHILDRESS...COCHRAN...COTTLE...                     
CROSBY...DICKENS...FLOYD...GARZA...HALE...HALL...HOCKLEY...                     
KENT...KING...LAMB...LUBBOCK...LYNN...MOTLEY...PARMER...                        
STONEWALL...SWISHER...TERRY...AND YOAKUM.                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
08                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV                                          
300 PM EDT FRI APR 7 2006                                                       
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                 
STORMS CONTINUING TO FORM ALONG OLD BOUNDARY FROM MORNING ACTIVITY.             
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ACROSS CENTRAL CWA ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE...SO            
NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERE STORMS FROM THIS ACTIVITY.                       
POTENTIAL INCREASING FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF CWA.             
SPC ABOUT TO DROP A WATCH ACROSS THIS AREA...AS BUILDING INSTABILITY            
COMBINES WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR.               
HAVE LIKELY POPS DURING THE EARLY EVENING FOR THIS ACTIVITY...MAY               
NEED TO BE BUMPED UP SOON. INCLUDING STRONG HAIL/WIND WORDING FOR               
SEVERE POTENTIAL.                                                               
LATER ACTIVITY IN 03Z-12Z TIMEFRAME WILL FOCUS ON FRONTAL BOUNDARY              
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS CWA...AS ACTIVITY WILL BE FED BY LOW LEVEL            
JET INTO FRONT.  TRIED TO TIME PASSAGE IN THE HOURLY POP FIELDS.                
KEEPING WIND/HAIL WORDING ALONG FRONT BUT NON-SEVERE.  LOW TEMPS                
GENERALLY WENT TOWARD COOLER SIDE OF MOS...GIVEN STRENGTH OF FRONT              
AND FAIRLY RAPID TEMPERATURE DROP BEHIND IT.                                    
PRECIP WILL HANG ON IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA...WITH AN               
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT SATURDAY MORNING.                   
SOUTHEASTERN OHIO WILL SEE THE MOST SUNSHINE SATURDAY...WITH CLOUDS             
ELSEWHERE...UNTIL SOME CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON. ONLY A FEW TWEAKS             
TO MAX TEMPS.                                                                   
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR             
SKIES TO CLEAR. WITH A GRADIENT LEFT FOR PART OF THE NIGHT...WENT A             
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE.                                               
DISREGARDED THE COLDER FWC NUMBERS FOR SUNDAY HIGHS...AND LEFT HIGHS            
AS IS...WHICH IS BASICALLY SPLIT DOWN THE MIDDLE BETWEEN THE COLDER             
FWC AND WARMER MAV...AS H85 ADJUSTMENTS INDICATE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S            
WITH FULL SUNSHINE.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                     
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION THIS                 
PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER...AND A FAIRLY LARGE DIURNAL                
TEMPERATURE RANGE DUE TO THE DRY AIR. LOOK FOR WARM DAYTIME AND COOL            
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES. ONLY SYSTEM OF CONSEQUENCE FOR US THIS                  
PERIOD WILL BE AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT THAT COMES INTO THE               
PACIFIC COAST MONDAY...THEN WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY AS THE SYSTEM TRIES            
TO CROSS THE UPPER RIDGE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BY THE TIME IT                  
REACHES US...ALL THAT REMAINS IS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE...AND A               
WEAK COOL FRONT THAT MAY NOT EVEN MAKE IT TO OUR REGION. THE GFS                
STILL APPEARS TOO AGGRESSIVE AND FAST WITH THIS SYSTEM BEATING DOWN             
THE UPPER RIDGE...THOUGH THE TREND WITH EACH RUN IS TO WEAKEN THE               
SYSTEM AS THE EURO MODELS HAVE BEEN DOING. THUS...EXPECT MAINLY                 
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM LATER WEDNESDAY INTO                  
THURSDAY.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 144 PM EDT FRI APR 7 2006/                                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
SCT-BKN LINE OF CONVECTION FORMING ALONG BOUNDARY LEFT BY MORNING               
ACTIVITY. THIS LINE SHOULD MOVE EAST BY 21-22Z OR SO. THE TAF                   
SITES SHOULD ESCAPE THE MOST ADVERSE EFFECTS EARLY ON. COLD                     
FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED IN THE 03Z-10Z TIMEFRAME ACROSS THE RLX                
CWA. TRIED TO TIME THIS PASSAGE IN TAFS...USING TEMPOS TO                       
INDICATE A TWO HOUR IFR TSRA WINDOW ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE                 
FRONT. WILL NEED TO FINE-TUNE THIS AS TIME GOES ON...ESPECIALLY IF              
SEVERE THREAT INCREASES. LEFT IN A FEW HOURS OF POST-FRONTAL SHRA               
WITH MVFR CIGS/VIS. THINK CIGS WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH AT LEAST                
18Z AREAWIDE BEFORE IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER.                                     
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 /ISSUED 1024 AM EDT FRI APR 7 2006/                                            
SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                   
LAST OF MORNING SHRA/TSRA POISED TO EXIT NE CORNER OF CWA. SOME                 
WEAKENING HAS BEEN OCCURRING AS NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS.                
CWA WILL ENJOY A BRIEF BREAK FROM PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATER THIS                
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
FOCUS NOW SHIFTS TO CONVECTION EXPECTED AFTER 21Z OR SO. LOOKING                
LIKE A BAND WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG APPROACHING FRONT...FED BY LOW                
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THIS ZONE WILL BE BACK NEAR CMH AROUND                       
00Z...DROPPING TO NEAR A HTS/CKB LINE BY 03Z...AND APPROACHING BKW              
BY 06Z. ANOTHER POSSIBLE FOCUSING MECHANISM WILL BE BOUNDARY LAID               
DOWN BY CONVECTION THIS MORNING FROM CVG TO PKB. RUC SEEMS TO PICK              
UP ON THIS. THIS IS EVIDENT ON SURFACE OBS...WITH 55 DEGREES AT                 
PKB AND 71 AT CRW AT 14Z. COULD SEE SOME EARLIER DEVELOPMENT HERE               
AS INSTABILITY BUILDS.                                                          
FOR NOW...BETTING ON LATER BOUNDARY TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS...AND AS               
SUCH KEPT LATER POPS THE WAY THEY WERE. REDUCED POPS BEFORE 18Z AS              
IT WILL TAKE A FEW HOURS FOR INSTABILITY TO BUILD. UPPED HIGH TEMPS             
ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF REGION...AND DROPPED THEMA BIT IN RAIN                  
COOLED AREA.  PLENTY TO MONITOR THIS AFTERNOON.                                 
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 /ISSUED 422 AM EDT FRI APR 7 2006/                                             
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                        
HAVE SHRUNK THE LINE BETWEEN PRECIPITATION AND DRY WEATHER                      
SATURDAY...AS IT CONTINUES TO BE EVIDENT THAT LITTLE SHOULD OCCUR               
BEHIND THE THIN LINE OF CONVECTION THAT WILL CROSS OVERNIGHT                    
TONIGHT.  OUR LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL BE REPLACED BY A                
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.                 
THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE SFC HIGH SHOULD BE OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO             
MONDAY MORNING.  AS FOR THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE                
REMAINDER OF THE TIME PERIOD...DID NOT ADD ANYTHING TO OUR DRY                  
PATTERN THAT WILL SET UP THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.  ANOTHER CHANGE              
WILL BE THE RETURN OF LIGHTER WINDS THAT WE ARE MORE USE TO...AS                
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.  NO EDITS WERE DONE TO THE FORECAST PAST               
TUESDAY.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WV...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...CL/KM                                                              
LONG TERM...JMV                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   wv                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV                                          
144 PM EDT FRI APR 7 2006                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SCT-BKN LINE OF CONVECTION FORMING ALONG BOUNDARY LEFT BY MORNING               
ACTIVITY. THIS LINE SHOULD MOVE EAST BY 21-22Z OR SO. THE TAF                   
SITES SHOULD ESCAPE THE MOST ADVERSE EFFECTS EARLY ON. COLD                     
FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED IN THE 03Z-10Z TIMEFRAME ACROSS THE RLX                
CWA. TRIED TO TIME THIS PASSAGE IN TAFS...USING TEMPOS TO                       
INDICATE A TWO HOUR IFR TSRA WINDOW ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE                 
FRONT. WILL NEED TO FINE-TUNE THIS AS TIME GOES ON...ESPECIALLY IF              
SEVERE THREAT INCREASES. LEFT IN A FEW HOURS OF POST-FRONTAL SHRA               
WITH MVFR CIGS/VIS. THINK CIGS WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH AT LEAST                
18Z AREAWIDE BEFORE IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER.                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 1024 AM EDT FRI APR 7 2006/                                            
SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                   
LAST OF MORNING SHRA/TSRA POISED TO EXIT NE CORNER OF CWA. SOME                 
WEAKENING HAS BEEN OCCURRING AS NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS.                
CWA WILL ENJOY A BRIEF BREAK FROM PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATER THIS                
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
FOCUS NOW SHIFTS TO CONVECTION EXPECTED AFTER 21Z OR SO. LOOKING                
LIKE A BAND WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG APPROACHING FRONT...FED BY LOW                
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THIS ZONE WILL BE BACK NEAR CMH AROUND                       
00Z...DROPPING TO NEAR A HTS/CKB LINE BY 03Z...AND APPROACHING BKW              
BY 06Z. ANOTHER POSSIBLE FOCUSING MECHANISM WILL BE BOUNDARY LAID               
DOWN BY CONVECTION THIS MORNING FROM CVG TO PKB. RUC SEEMS TO PICK              
UP ON THIS. THIS IS EVIDENT ON SURFACE OBS...WITH 55 DEGREES AT                 
PKB AND 71 AT CRW AT 14Z. COULD SEE SOME EARLIER DEVELOPMENT HERE               
AS INSTABILITY BUILDS.                                                          
FOR NOW...BETTING ON LATER BOUNDARY TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS...AND AS               
SUCH KEPT LATER POPS THE WAY THEY WERE. REDUCED POPS BEFORE 18Z AS              
IT WILL TAKE A FEW HOURS FOR INSTABILITY TO BUILD. UPPED HIGH TEMPS             
ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF REGION...AND DROPPED THEMA BIT IN RAIN                  
COOLED AREA.  PLENTY TO MONITOR THIS AFTERNOON.                                 
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 /ISSUED 422 AM EDT FRI APR 7 2006/                                             
SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                   
WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH IS EVIDENT ON SFC OBS DEWPOINT                          
DISCONTINUITY. RADAR SHOWS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING MAINLY                     
EAST...MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF WEST VIRGINIA AND              
SOUTHEAST OHIO. VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE AS                
THEY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO...BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED THIS                    
MORNING.                                                                        
NAM AND LOCAL WRF MODELS SHOWING DESCENT MUCAPE OF NEAR 2500 J/KG...            
LOW LEVEL MOIST CONVERGENCE...AND LIFTED INDEX OF -4 C...SUGGEST                
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS                  
SOUTHEAST OHIO...ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND ALONG THE OHIO               
RIVER IN WEST VIRGINIA. SPC HAS THIS AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR               
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT. INCLUDED STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND               
SMALL HAIL WITH THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH.                        
SOUTHERLY WEAK FLOW WILL BECOME GENTLE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY MID                
MORNING AND STRONG AND GUSTY FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.            
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU THE AREA AROUND 06Z TONIGHT.                
WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S                         
LOWLANDS...RANGING TO LOWER 60S OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE NORTHERN             
MOUNTAINS. TWEAKED LOCAL MOS TEMPS FOR HIGHS TODAY...AND WENT CLOSE             
TO MAV NUMBERS FOR LOWS TONIGHT.                                                
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                        
HAVE SHRUNK THE LINE BETWEEN PRECIPITATION AND DRY WEATHER                      
SATURDAY...AS IT CONTINUES TO BE EVIDENT THAT LITTLE SHOULD OCCUR               
BEHIND THE THIN LINE OF CONVECTION THAT WILL CROSS OVERNIGHT                    
TONIGHT.  OUR LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL BE REPLACED BY A                
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.                 
THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE SFC HIGH SHOULD BE OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO             
MONDAY MORNING.  AS FOR THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE                
REMAINDER OF THE TIME PERIOD...DID NOT ADD ANYTHING TO OUR DRY                  
PATTERN THAT WILL SET UP THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.  ANOTHER CHANGE              
WILL BE THE RETURN OF LIGHTER WINDS THAT WE ARE MORE USE TO...AS                
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.  NO EDITS WERE DONE TO THE FORECAST PAST               
TUESDAY.                                                                        
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 /ISSUED 155 AM EDT FRI APR 7 2006/                                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
LATEST SFC OBS SHOW DEWPOINT WARM FRONT ALREADY NORTH OF PKB AND                
EKN.  RADAR SHOWS RAIN SHOWERS MOVING EAST NORTHEAST MAINLY ACROSS              
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...TO AFFECT PKB...CKB...EKN ON AND OFF            
THRU AT LEAST 10Z. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS COULD STILL AFFECT THE              
SOUTHERN SITES...CRW...HTS...AND BKW SO INCLUDE RAIN IN A TEMPO                 
OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART WITH OCCASIONALLY                   
MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WITHIN RAIN SHOWERS.                         
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST AND                 
BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TONIGHT AROUND 03-06Z SAT. WILL HAVE            
A CLOSER TIMING ON NEXT TAF ISSUANCE.                                           
&&                                                                              
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WV...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...CL                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   wv