AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                             
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                         
 739 AM EST WED JAN 10 2007                                                     
 .UPDATE...WINDS ARE SLOWLY SUBSIDING ON LAKE MOULTRIE THIS                     
 MORNING. THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AT PINEVILLE SHOW WINDS HAVE                  
 DROPPED BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT JUST BARELY.                   
 UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY TO REMOVE THE LAKE WIND                
 ADVISORY HEADLINE.                                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 /ISSUED 310 AM EST WED JAN 10 2007/                                            
 SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE...HIGH            
 PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY...WITH RIDGING                   
 EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN              
 CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS SEEN IN IR SAT                  
 IMAGERY. MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN FOR TODAY REVOLVES AROUND MAX                 
 TEMPERATURES.                                                                  
 TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE                 
 FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY...RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES. AS FOR               
 TEMPERATURES...LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST HIGHS AROUND 50 TO           
 LOWER 50S ACROSS THE AREA. WITH FULL SUN...A WELL MIXED                        
 ATMOSPHERE...AND A MODERATING AIRMASS...SHOULD SEE HIGHS TOP OUT               
 GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S.                                                      
 TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO             
 THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT...THEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON           
 THURSDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS WILL RESULT IN EXCELLENT            
 RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD             
 BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO               
 AROUND 40 DEGREES CLOSER TO THE COAST. WILL MENTION SCATTERED FROST            
 FOR COASTAL ZONES AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH WIDESPREAD              
 FROST INLAND. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE ONSHORE THURSDAY ALLOWING LOW             
 LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY                
 CONDITIONS ACROSS INTERIOR SC ZONES THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SKIES               
 BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SE GA AND ALL COASTAL ZONES IN THE               
 AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT GENERALLY                 
 AROUND 60 DEGREES.                                                             
 THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SET UP             
 OFF THE SC/GA COAST...AND WITH ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE              
 AREA...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE. HAVE INTRODUCED           
 SOME SLGT CHC POPS ACROSS COASTAL ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT THU THROUGH             
 THE MORNING HOURS FRI FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ROLLING IN OFF THE                
 ATLANTIC. BY FRI AFTERNOON...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO              
 BUILD BACK TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA...AND ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS               
 CAN/T BE RULED OUT...WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY           
 FOR NOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 WELL                
 INLAND TO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 NEAR THE COAST. HIGH                      
 TEMPERATURES FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.           
 LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...NO CHANGES MADE TO THE              
 EXTENDED PERIOD WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE.                                      
 FIRE WEATHER...CRITICAL RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY                
 AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...AND WILL HEADLINE CRITICAL RH VALUES           
 IN THE MORNING FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.                                          
 MARINE...WNDS HAVE GENERALLY PEAKED ACROSS THE WTRS EARLY THIS MRNG            
 WITH THE INTENSITY OF CAA SHOWING SIGNS OF SLACKING OFF. STILL SOLID           
 SCA CONDITIONS ARE IN PROGRESS WITH WNDS GENERALLY 20-25 KT AWAY               
 FROM THE BEACHES AND CLOSER TO 25-30 KT OVR THE GA OFFSHORE WTRS. WL           
 MAINTAIN THE SCA FOR ALL NEARSHORE WTRS INCLUDING CHARLESTON HARBOR            
 THROUGH MID-MRNG...AFTER WHICH THE FLAGS WL LIKELY BE DROPPED. HAVE            
 ONLY HAD ONLY A FEW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE REPORTED AT SPAG1 OVR THE              
 PAST FEW HRS SO SUSPECT THE RISK FOR GALES HAS PASSED. THE GALE WRNG           
 WL THEREFORE BE DOWNGRADED TO AN SCA.                                          
 HIGH PRES OVR THE LWR MS VALLEY WL SHIFT E INTO NC THU AND OFF THE             
 MID-ATLC COAST BY FRI. THIS SHOULD HELP INDUCE A SHARP COASTAL TROF            
 OFF THE SC/GA COAST BEGINNING AS EARLY AS TNGT. THIS WL BRING                  
 PINCHED GRADIENT CONDITIONS TO THE MARINE AREA THROUGH FRI. AN AREA            
 OF LOCALLY ENHANCED WNDS WL LIKELY SETUP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE                  
 COASTAL WTRS WHERE GRADIENT PINCHING IS MAXIMIZED BUT UNTIL THE TROF           
 DVLPS PINNING DOWN WHERE THESE WNDS WL MATERIALIZE WL BE TRICKY. FOR           
 NOW WL TREND WNDS UPWARD TO A SOLID 15 KT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WTRS            
 WITH 15-20 KT ACROSS THE GA OFFSHORE WTRS AND BUILD SEAS 1-2 FT ABV            
 WW3 GUIDANCE. WL ALSO DELAY THE ONSET OF VEERING WNDS FRI AS THE               
 MODELS ARE TYPICALLY TOO QUICKLY IN BRINGING COASTAL TROFS ONSHORE.            
 IT DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS ARE              
 LIKELY TO OCCUR OVR THE GA OFFSHORE WTRS AND MAY VERY WELL OCCUR OVR           
 THE NEARSHORE WTRS.                                                            
 AVIATION /06Z-06Z/...WNDS HAVE PARTIALLY DECOUPLED AT BOTH TAF                 
 SITES BUT WNDS AROUND 1200 FT REMAIN NEAR 30 KT. WL NEED TO KEEP               
 MENTION OF LLWS GOING THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z AFT WHICH SFC WNDS WL               
 BEGIN TO INCR AS WNDS ALOFT SLOWLY DECR. VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL             
 FOR THE NXT 24 HRS.                                                            
 LAKE WINDS...THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS FROM PINEVILLE INDICATE SOLID             
 LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE IN PROGRESS. THE LATEST RUC AND              
 NAM OUTPUT SUGGESTS 975MB WNDS WL SURGE A BIT BTWN 09-12Z SO WL NEED           
 TO EXTEND THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 8 AM...AFT WHICH A STEADY             
 DECR IN SPEEDS WL OCCUR.                                                       
 &&                                                                             
 .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 GA...NONE.                                                                     
 SC...NONE.                                                                     
 MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ330-         
      350-352-354.                                                              
      SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ374.                    
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 ST                                                                             
</pre> ga                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                         
 310 AM EST WED JAN 10 2007                                                     
 .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE...HIGH           
 PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY...WITH RIDGING                   
 EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN              
 CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS SEEN IN IR SAT                  
 IMAGERY. MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN FOR TODAY REVOLVES AROUND MAX                 
 TEMPERATURES.                                                                  
 TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE                 
 FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY...RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES. AS FOR               
 TEMPERATURES...LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST HIGHS AROUND 50 TO           
 LOWER 50S ACROSS THE AREA. WITH FULL SUN...A WELL MIXED                        
 ATMOSPHERE...AND A MODERATING AIRMASS...SHOULD SEE HIGHS TOP OUT               
 GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S.                                                      
 TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO             
 THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT...THEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON           
 THURSDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS WILL RESULT IN EXCELLENT            
 RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD             
 BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO               
 AROUND 40 DEGREES CLOSER TO THE COAST. WILL MENTION SCATTERED FROST            
 FOR COASTAL ZONES AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH WIDESPREAD              
 FROST INLAND. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE ONSHORE THURSDAY ALLOWING LOW             
 LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY                
 CONDITIONS ACROSS INTERIOR SC ZONES THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SKIES               
 BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SE GA AND ALL COASTAL ZONES IN THE               
 AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT GENERALLY                 
 AROUND 60 DEGREES.                                                             
 THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SET UP             
 OFF THE SC/GA COAST...AND WITH ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE              
 AREA...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE. HAVE INTRODUCED           
 SOME SLGT CHC POPS ACROSS COASTAL ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT THU THROUGH             
 THE MORNING HOURS FRI FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ROLLING IN OFF THE                
 ATLANTIC. BY FRI AFTERNOON...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO              
 BUILD BACK TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA...AND ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS               
 CAN/T BE RULED OUT...WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY           
 FOR NOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 WELL                
 INLAND TO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 NEAR THE COAST. HIGH                      
 TEMPERATURES FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.           
 &&                                                                             
 .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...NO CHANGES MADE TO THE             
 EXTENDED PERIOD WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE.                                      
 &&                                                                             
 .FIRE WEATHER...CRITICAL RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY               
 AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...AND WILL HEADLINE CRITICAL RH VALUES           
 IN THE MORNING FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .MARINE...WNDS HAVE GENERALLY PEAKED ACROSS THE WTRS EARLY THIS MRNG           
 WITH THE INTENSITY OF CAA SHOWING SIGNS OF SLACKING OFF. STILL SOLID           
 SCA CONDITIONS ARE IN PROGRESS WITH WNDS GENERALLY 20-25 KT AWAY               
 FROM THE BEACHES AND CLOSER TO 25-30 KT OVR THE GA OFFSHORE WTRS. WL           
 MAINTAIN THE SCA FOR ALL NEARSHORE WTRS INCLUDING CHARLESTON HARBOR            
 THROUGH MID-MRNG...AFTER WHICH THE FLAGS WL LIKELY BE DROPPED. HAVE            
 ONLY HAD ONLY A FEW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE REPORTED AT SPAG1 OVR THE              
 PAST FEW HRS SO SUSPECT THE RISK FOR GALES HAS PASSED. THE GALE WRNG           
 WL THEREFORE BE DOWNGRADED TO AN SCA.                                          
 HIGH PRES OVR THE LWR MS VALLEY WL SHIFT E INTO NC THU AND OFF THE             
 MID-ATLC COAST BY FRI. THIS SHOULD HELP INDUCE A SHARP COASTAL TROF            
 OFF THE SC/GA COAST BEGINNING AS EARLY AS TNGT. THIS WL BRING                  
 PINCHED GRADIENT CONDITIONS TO THE MARINE AREA THROUGH FRI. AN AREA            
 OF LOCALLY ENHANCED WNDS WL LIKELY SETUP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE                  
 COASTAL WTRS WHERE GRADIENT PINCHING IS MAXIMIZED BUT UNTIL THE TROF           
 DVLPS PINNING DOWN WHERE THESE WNDS WL MATERIALIZE WL BE TRICKY. FOR           
 NOW WL TREND WNDS UPWARD TO A SOLID 15 KT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WTRS            
 WITH 15-20 KT ACROSS THE GA OFFSHORE WTRS AND BUILD SEAS 1-2 FT ABV            
 WW3 GUIDANCE. WL ALSO DELAY THE ONSET OF VEERING WNDS FRI AS THE               
 MODELS ARE TYPICALLY TOO QUICKLY IN BRINGING COASTAL TROFS ONSHORE.            
 IT DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS ARE              
 LIKELY TO OCCUR OVR THE GA OFFSHORE WTRS AND MAY VERY WELL OCCUR OVR           
 THE NEARSHORE WTRS.                                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION /06Z-06Z/...WNDS HAVE PARTIALLY DECOUPLED AT BOTH TAF                
 SITES BUT WNDS AROUND 1200 FT REMAIN NEAR 30 KT. WL NEED TO KEEP               
 MENTION OF LLWS GOING THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z AFT WHICH SFC WNDS WL               
 BEGIN TO INCR AS WNDS ALOFT SLOWLY DECR. VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL             
 FOR THE NXT 24 HRS.                                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .LAKE WINDS...THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS FROM PINEVILLE INDICATE SOLID            
 LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE IN PROGRESS. THE LATEST RUC AND              
 NAM OUTPUT SUGGESTS 975MB WNDS WL SURGE A BIT BTWN 09-12Z SO WL NEED           
 TO EXTEND THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 8 AM...AFT WHICH A STEADY             
 DECR IN SPEEDS WL OCCUR.                                                       
 &&                                                                             
 .CHS WATCHES/WARNING ADVISORIES...                                             
 GA...NONE.                                                                     
 SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR LAKE MOULTRIE SCZ045 UNTIL 8 AM.                   
 MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ330-350-352-354-374.                      
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 JRJ/ST                                                                         
</pre> ga                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                      
 443 AM EST THU JAN 11 2007                                                     
 .SHORT TERM...                                                                 
 TODAY AND TONIGHT. PRIMARY FOCUS ON LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE                    
 TRANSPORT INTO SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY END OF SHORT TERM PERIOD.               
 AT 09Z PLUME OF HIR SFC DPS FM ERN TX NOSING INTO ERN KS. WAVE                 
 EMBEDDED IN ML WSWRLY FLOW TO AID IN STRONG LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS              
 TO FURTHER STRENGTHEN MOISTURE TRANSPORT TODAY. AS WAVE MOVES EWD              
 INTO MS VALLEY TONIGHT AND STRONG SFC-8H FLOW VEERS MOISTURE AXIS              
 TO SHIFT INTO CWA. WL SEE SFC DPS TO SHOW DRAMATIC RISE OF UP                  
 TO 20F HIR IN ABOUT 24HRS ADN CPDS LOWER TO NEAR ZERO AFTR 06Z.                
 PRECIP TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE TONIGHT IN INCREASINGLY                  
 CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...STRONGEST I295 PRES ADVECTION WILL         
 BE EAST OF CWA WITH LOW LEVEL JET AFTER SUB CLOUD LAYER                        
 SATURATES...SO ANTICIPATE PRECIP TO BE MORE ON THE LIGHT SIDE                  
 WITH LESS FORCING...AND HAVE CUT QPF A BIT. WITH NAM AND GFS                   
 SHOWING GOOD OVERALL SIGNALS AND HIGH MOS POPS HOWEVER WILL UP                 
 POPS AFT MIDNIGHT TO LOW END CATAGORICAL. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS               
 TODAY. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST G35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WHEN GREATEST                
 1000-950MB LAPSE RATES REALIZE BEST MOMENTUM XFER. SHOULD TEMPS                
 TREND WARMER EVEN HIR GUSTS INTO LOW END ADVISORY RANGE COULD BE               
 REALIZED. WITH CLOUD COVER/PRECIP AND WELL MIXED BL TONIGHT HAVE               
 RAISED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.                                                    
 &&                                                                             
 .LONG TERM...                                                                  
 FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY                                                       
 PICTURE NOT A WHOLE LOT CLEARER FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD               
 THAN LAST NIGHT.                                                               
 RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS FIRST LOW MOVES ACROSS             
 THE AREA WITH A COLD FRONT BEGINNING ITS SE MVMT ACROSS THE AREA               
 SOMETIME FRI NGT OR SATURDAY. HAVE NOT INCREASED TO CAT POPS                   
 ANYWHERE ON FRI AS OF YET AS TRENDS HAVE BEGAN TO TAKE MUCH OF THE             
 HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. STILL             
 APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH LIGHTER PRECIP AROUND TO MAINTAIN HIGH LIKELY             
 POPS ALL AREAS ON FRIDAY AND EXTEND LIKELY POPS INTO FRI EVE IN SE             
 AREAS. COLDER AIR WILL START TO FILTER IN LATE FRI NGT INTO                    
 SATURDAY. THIS AND AMOUNT OF REMAINING MSTR WILL LEAD TO A TRICKY              
 SCENARIO IN TERMS OF PRECIP TYPE AND COVERAGE. NAM THERMAL FIELDS              
 WOULD SUGGEST THAT ANY PRECIP WOULD REMAIN IN THE FORM OF RAIN...BUT           
 WITH SFC TEMPS NEAR FREEZING COULD END UP FREEZING. THE GFS PROFILES           
 SUGGEST MAINLY SNOW AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -5 TO -7 C BY SAT           
 AFTERNOON. THIS UNCERTANTITY HAS PLAGUED THE FORECAST FOR THE PAST             
 FEW DAYS NOW AND APPEARS NO CLEARER NOW. MIX PRECIP WAS DROPPED A              
 FEW DAYS AGO AND LOOK LIKE WILL BE FORCED TO THROW THIS BACK IN NW             
 AREA LATE FRI NGT AND NW HALF OF SO ON SAT WITH JUST RAIN SE.                  
 FINAL SURGE OF WARMER AIR BEGINS SAT NGT INTO SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF             
 PESKY UPPER LOW OVER THE SW US BEGINNING TO EJECT AS ANOTHER WAVE              
 AND 120+KT JET STREAK GIVE IT A KICK OUT. HOW MUCH MSTR AND WARM AIR           
 ARRIVES FOR SUNDAY WILL BE KEY IN PCPN CHANCES AS WELL AS TYPE.                
 THINK LIGHT PRECIP WILL ONCE AGAIN MATERIALIZE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA            
 BY SUNDAY WITH HIGHEST CHC POPS REMAINING THERE. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR           
 MASS AND SLOWER KICK OUT OF SYSTEM MAY PRECLUDE ARRIVAL OF PRECIP              
 UNTIL LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. IT IS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY               
 THAT MAY END UP THE MOST FAVORABLE PERIOD FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP               
 WHICH COULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW OR ICE ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW HALF            
 OF CWA. TRACK OF SFC LOW GENERALLY OVER OR SE OF THE CWA WITH MAIN             
 CONSENSUS TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN OHIO ON MONDAY. ANY DEVIATION IN             
 THIS WILL DRASTICALLY AFFECT THE ANTICIPATED LOCATION OF THE                   
 HEAVIEST PRECIP. PAST SEVERAL MODELS RUNS HAVE PLACED THE HEAVIEST             
 SNOW FROM N ILLINOIS INTO PARTS OF CNTRL/NORTHERN LWR MI.                      
 HOWEVER...TRENDS STILL SUGGESTING THAT A BUFFER ZONE OF A MIXED BAG            
 OF PRECIP COULD SET UP SOUTH OF THIS BAND WHICH WOULD INCLUDE PARTS            
 OF THE CWA. MANY QUESTIONS REMAIN TO BE ANSWERED SO STAY TUNED TO              
 LATER FORECASTS.                                                               
 BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR STILL ARRIVING BY MON NGT/TUES WITH TEMPS                  
 HEADING BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL WEEKS. ANY SNOW             
 COVER COULD PLAY HAVOC WITH TEMPS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.               
 WITH COLDER AIR OVER THE GREAT LAKES...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL LIKELY            
 OCCUR BUT INTENSITY AND COVERAGE REMAIN TRICKY AS EITHER NW OR N               
 FLOW COULD SET UP OVER LK MI NEXT WEEK. WILL LEAVE GRIDS ALONE FOR             
 THIS TIME FRAME.                                                               
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 VFR XPCD THROUGH THE PD. VIGOROUS LEAD SHORTWAVE IN SRN SK...WITH              
 ASSOCD STRONG SFC LOW IN MN...SPLITTING AWAY FROM MAIN ENERGY IN NW            
 WA. LLJ DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN IL AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOV EWD AS JET           
 AXIS VEERS SLIGHTLY EARLLY THIS AM. SECOND GATE KIWX VWP TO 47 KTS             
 IN SRN SK WITH STRONG SFC LOW IN MN...SECONDARY ENERGY/WAVE                    
 SPLITTING OFF INTO NW WA. THOUGH SOME MINOR SFC GUSTS POSBL THIS               
 AM...CLEARLY SUFFICIENT DECOUPLING HAS OCCURRED ACRS NRN IN PER 05             
 UTC SFC ANALYSIS...WARRANTING CONTINUED MENTION OF LLWS AT BOTH                
 SITES. HAVE FURTHER INCREASED WS020 WIND SPEED TO 60KTS AT KSBN PER            
 KLOT VWP/WOLCOTT PROFILER/NAM12/RUC POINT SNDGS. GREATER MIXING BY             
 MID/LATE MORNING AND BY AFTERNOON WIND GUST/MOMENTUM XFER POTENTIAL            
 FOR AT LEAST G32 KTS. RAFL TO ARRIVE BEYOND 06 UTC AND WILL PROVIDE            
 TIMING DETAILS WITH 12 UTC ISSUANCE...THOUGH AT LEAST MVFR BY 12 UTC           
 FRI ANTICIPATED.                                                               
 &&                                                                             
 .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 IN...NONE.                                                                     
 MI...NONE.                                                                     
 OH...NONE.                                                                     
 LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ043-LMZ046.             
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MURPHY                                                   
 LONG TERM...FISHER                                                             
</pre> in                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                      
 105 AM EST THU JAN 11 2007                                                     
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 VFR XPCD THROUGH THE PD. VIGOROUS LEAD SHORTWAVE IN SRN SK...WITH              
 ASSOCD STRONG SFC LOW IN MN...SPLITTING AWAY FROM MAIN ENERGY IN NW            
 WA. LLJ DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN IL AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOV EWD AS JET           
 AXIS VEERS SLIGHTLY EARLLY THIS AM. SECOND GATE KIWX VWP TO 47 KTS             
 IN SRN SK WITH STRONG SFC LOW IN MN...SECONDARY ENERGY/WAVE                    
 SPLITTING OFF INTO NW WA. THOUGH SOME MINOR SFC GUSTS POSBL THIS               
 AM...CLEARLY SUFFICIENT DECOUPLING HAS OCCURRED ACRS NRN IN PER 05             
 UTC SFC ANALYSIS...WARRANTING CONTINUED MENTION OF LLWS AT BOTH                
 SITES. HAVE FURTHER INCREASED WS020 WIND SPEED TO 60KTS AT KSBN PER            
 KLOT VWP/WOLCOTT PROFILER/NAM12/RUC POINT SNDGS. GREATER MIXING BY             
 MID/LATE MORNING AND BY AFTERNOON WIND GUST/MOMENTUM XFER POTENTIAL            
 FOR AT LEAST G32 KTS. RAFL TO ARRIVE BEYOND 06 UTC AND WILL PROVIDE            
 TIMING DETAILS WITH 12 UTC ISSUANCE...THOUGH AT LEAST MVFR BY 12 UTC           
 FRI ANTICIPATED.                                                               
 &&                                                                             
 .SHORT TERM...                                                                 
 TONIGHT AND AND THURSDAY...                                                    
 LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE EXTENDING UP FROM TN/OH VALLEY INTO            
 EASTERN GREAT LAKES. VIS SAT SHOWING BAND OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD            
 OF WARM FRONT ON BACK SIDE OF SFC HIGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ATTM.           
 BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS PUSHING THROUGH WESTERN ILLINOIS AND EXPECTING             
 CLEARING IN OUR AREA LATER THIS EVENING AS WARM FRONT LIFTS QUICKLY            
 NORTHWARD. SFC HIGH SLIDES EAST BRINGING STRONGER GRADIENT OVER THE            
 AREA TONIGHT. DESPITE SOME POSSIBLE DECOUPLING EARLY ON...ESPECIALLY           
 IN EASTERN CWA...NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF DIURNAL COOLING            
 AS CLOUD COVER EARLY EVENING AND WAA AFTER MIDNIGHT SHOULD WORK TO             
 LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT AND KEEP TEMPS NEAR GUIDANCE. LOOK           
 FOR A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE EARLY ON TOMORROW BEFORE CLOUDS ARE            
 ON THE INCREASE ONCE AGAIN BY AFTERNOON. MORNING SUN SHOULD SET THE            
 STAGE FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH 15-20KT SUSTAINED AND MIXING DOWN GUSTS             
 TO 30KT. GOOD WAA WILL SEE NEARLY A 10C JUMP IN 850MB TEMPS FROM NOW           
 TO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. UPSTREAM TEMPS THAT WERE NOT AFFECTED BY MID            
 CLOUDS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 40S WITH SOME 50S FURTHER BACK IN            
 W/SW MO SO WILL BLEND MET/MAV GUIDANCE AND GO AROUND 45 NE AND NEAR            
 50 SW.                                                                         
 &&                                                                             
 .LONG TERM...                                                                  
 SIMILAR SCENARIO BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM-WRF FOR TOMORROW                      
 NIGHT...BUT A DIFFERENCE LIES WITHIN THE RAIN CHANCES BETWEEN THE              
 TWO. GFS OF COURSE IS SHOWING HIGHER CHANCE/MUCH MORE QPF THAN THE             
 NAM-WRF IS...BUT WITH HIGH GUIDANCE POPS FOR TOMORROW                          
 NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND PAST FEW MODEL RUNS SHOWING            
 THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE AREA...HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FOR               
 TOMORROW NIGHT. BY 12Z FRIDAY THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE JUST TO THE           
 WEST OF OUR CWA. THIS TROUGH IS THEN PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE CWA ON           
 FRIDAY...RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS TIME MAY LIKELY HAVE TO BE INCREASED            
 BUT KEPT LIKELY CHANCES FOR THE TIME BEING. THEN FRIDAY NIGHT THE              
 TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE EAST OF THE CWA...DECREASING THE RAIN CHANCES.           
 ANY PRECIP ON SATURDAY COULD TAKE ON A DIFFERENT FORM...BUT THIS               
 FAR OUT DID NOT WANT TO TRY AND GET CUTE WITH PRECIP TYPES AND WHERE           
 AT. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THE SATURDAY TIME FRAME TO BE AROUND           
 THE FREEZING MARK...SOME EVEN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...KEEPING WHAT FORM            
 THE PRECIP WILL TAKE TRICKY. THEREFORE WILL NOT CHANGE THE TYPE OF             
 PRECIP FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THAT IS IN THE FORECAST             
 BUT DID MODIFY POPS A LITTLE TO SHOW A LESSER PRECIP CHANCE FOR                
 SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT THAN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THEN THERE           
 HAVE BEEN SOME MODEL TIMING CHANGES/DIFFERENCES FOR THE LOW TO EJECT           
 OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES FOR NEXT WEEK. SO NO CHANGES            
 FOR NEXT WEEK...BUT IS LOOKING LIKE SUNDAY HAS A GOOD CHANCE TO BE             
 WET WITH A WEAK LOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD UP THE SURFACE TROUGH TO              
 OUR SOUTHEAST...THEN ANOTHER LOW TO SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI/SOUTHERN             
 ILLINOIS BY SUNDAY EVENING. BY MONDAY MORNING THE LOW IS CURRENTLY             
 PROGGED TO BE OVER NORTHWESTERN OHIO AND THEN ON TO THE NORTHEAST              
 DURING MONDAY. DID NOT CHANGE THE PRECIP TYPE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT YET             
 EVEN THOUGH ITS LOOKING LIKE THE REAL COLD AIR PUSH INTO THE CWA               
 WILL NOT BE UNTIL THE DAYTIME MONDAY...NOT LOOKING COLD ENOUGH IN              
 THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE FOR ALL SNOW UNTIL MONDAY. THEN DECENT FETCH           
 DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO TAKE SHAPE.            
 THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES THEN LOOK LIKE THEY COULD CONTINUE                
 THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN ON                
 WEDNESDAY AND CHANGING THE WIND DIRECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST...THE               
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL END. BUT LIKE MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE HAVE               
 BEEN TIMING CHANGES IN THE MODELS FOR NEXT WEEK SO MADE NO CHANGES             
 FOR THEN FOR NOW.                                                              
 &&                                                                             
 .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 IN...NONE.                                                                     
 MI...NONE.                                                                     
 OH...NONE.                                                                     
 LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 7 PM EST THURSDAY                            
      FOR LMZ043-LMZ046.                                                        
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 AVIATION...MURPHY                                                              
 SHORT TERM...LOGSDON                                                           
 LONG TERM....LOTHAMER                                                          
</pre> in                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                         
 900 PM CST THU JAN 11 2007                                                     
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 CONUNDRUM THIS EVE CENTERS AROUND FRZG DRZL POTENTIAL AND FATE OF              
 CURRENT ADVY.  LG WV TROUGH SETTLING INTO WRN CONUS WITH BROAD SWLY            
 FLOW AHEAD INTO PLAINS.  120+KT JET SEGMENT NOTED FROM KS INTO UPPER           
 OH RIVER VALLEY WITH LARGE PCPN SHIELD ON LEADING EDGE.  SHRT WV               
 WITH THIS FEATURE ADVANCING THROUGH MID/UPR MS VALLEY INTO GREAT               
 LAKES PUSHING DEEPER MOISTURE OFF TO THE E.  LITTLE DEEP UVM OR QG             
 FORCING NOTED OVER IA...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME TO OUR N AS SHRT WV             
 EJECTS OUT OF NRN PORTION OF TROUGH.  SOME H85/H7 FN CONVERGENCE BUT           
 MOISTURE NOT SUFFICIENT FOR RESPONSE.                                          
 LGT RAIN/DRZL THAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING IN RADAR TRENDS LOOKS             
 TO BE DRIVEN BY THETA-E ADVECTION AND UVM IN SATURATED H9/H8 LAYER.            
 02Z SFC ANLYS PLACES CDFNT ACROSS SERN IA WITH SVRL EMBEDDED WVS.              
 CANNOT REALLY PICK OUT A PRIMARY ONE...BUT LATEST RUC PUSHES ALL               
 THESE LOW LEVEL MECHANISMS OFF TO THE EAST WITH 925MB TROUGH BY                
 06Z.  HOWEVER RUC ALSO LINGERS THIS SATURATED LAYER ALONG AND S OF             
 I80 THROUGH 06Z AND LINES UP WITH ECHOES TO OUR W.  OAX REPORTS                
 FLURRIES/FRZG DRZL HAVING MINIMAL EFFECT EVEN IN COLDER AIR THUS               
 WILL KEEP MENTION OF PATCHY FRZG DRZL OR FLURRIES GOING WHERE                  
 APPROPRIATE AS IT MOVES FROM W TO E...BUT DROP HEADLINE.  DO NOT               
 EXPECT CONDITIONS THAT WOULD BE IMPLIED BY FRZG RAIN ADVY AND FRZG             
 DRZL ADVY IS NO LONGER A VALID HEADLINE.  BETTER LIKELIHOOD MAY EVEN           
 BE FARTHER N INTO COLDER AIR OUTSIDE OF CURRENT HEADLINE...BUT NOT             
 SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO WARRANT NEW ONE.  WET ROADS MAY START                    
 FREEZING FROM EXISTING MOISTURE TOO AS COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES.               
 IEM FREEZE APP HAS SUB-FRZG ROAD TEMPS ALG AND NW OF                           
 ADAIR-BOONE-IOWA FALLS LINE AND SLOWLY ADVANCING SE.  WILL HIT HARD            
 IN NOWCASTS THAT SLICK SPOTS MAY DEVELOP...BUT LIKELY NOT                      
 AGGRAVATED MUCH BY ADDITIONAL MOISTURE.                                        
 ALSO DROPPED HOURLY TEMP/DEWPOINTS TO SUPPORT MORE AGGRESSIVE                  
 COLD/DRY ADVECTION.  02Z SFC ANLYS ALSO SHOWED WIDESPREAD                      
 SIGNIFICANT PRES RISES BEHIND CFP.                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                       
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SMALL                                                                          
</pre> ia                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME                                            
 1113 AM EST WED JAN 10 2007                                                    
 .SYNOPSIS...                                                                   
 A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE                  
 WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THROUGH THIS              
 EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT              
 AND THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT                   
 APPROACHES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD                
 FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM QUEBEC PROVINCE AND CROSS THE REGION                
 LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW SQUALLS HAS NOW DRIFTED                          
 INTO EAST CENTRAL AREAS IE SRN ZNS 2 AND ZNS 5/6... HAVE ISSUED A              
 QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS/WX TO BETTER FIT CURRENT TRENDS. XPCT              
 THIS ACTIVITY TO CONT TO DRIFT SEWRD THRU THE AFTN W/ WEAKENING BY             
 ERLY EVE...                                                                    
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
 A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE                  
 WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THROUGH THIS              
 EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT              
 AND THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT                   
 APPROACHES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD                
 FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM QUEBEC PROVINCE AND CROSS THE REGION                
 LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.                                          
 SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                         
 FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED             
 WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE TODAY. SAT IMG THIS MORNING                      
 INDICATES UPPER TROUGH CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY WITH                   
 DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE. MODELS                
 CONSISTENT WITH UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON                 
 AND THEN MOVING EAST OF THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. AS UPPER                
 TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH            
 WILL ALSO CROSS THE STATE. THE PROBLEM IS MOS GUIDANCE INDICATING              
 MINIMAL POPS TODAY WITH ALL THE ENERGY TO BE TRANSFERED TO SURFACE             
 LOW PRESSURE WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS APPEARS TO BE               
 ALREADY HAPPENING AS INDICATED BY CLOUD TOPS COOLING THIS MORNING              
 WITH THE LOW PRESSURE. HOWEVER...SNOW SHOWERS ALREADY BREAKING OUT             
 OVER QUEBEC WITH UPPER TROUGH AS OBS IN QUEBEC INDICATING SNOW                 
 SHOWERS REDUCING VSBY TO 1 NM IN PLACES. PAST EXPERIENCE WITH                  
 THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS IS GUIDANCE USUALLY UNDERESTIMATES THE POP              
 AND QPF SO WILL GO ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR TODAY. LATEST RUC ALSO                   
 INDICATING VORT MAX TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS                      
 AFTERNOON SO WILL UP POPS TO LIKELY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND                 
 ALONG UPSLOPE REGIONS OF NORTHWEST MAINE. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE                
 WILL ONLY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT NO MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH               
 OF QPF SO WILL KEEP SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AN INCH OR LESS.                          
 UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH CLEARING               
 SKIES BY MIDNIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE                 
 STATE ON THURSDAY. SKIES START OUT CLEAR THURSDAY MORNING BUT AS               
 HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST...WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL ALLOW                 
 HIGH CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE STATE FROM THE WEST DURING THE                    
 AFTERNOON.                                                                     
 LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                  
 HAVE FOLLOWED THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST                
 RUN OF THE ECMWF/CANADIAN GLOBAL MODELS WHICH CONTINUES TO INCREASE            
 CLOUDS IN BROAD SOUTHWEST WAA PATTERN AROUND DEPARTING SURFACE                 
 RIDGE AND AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FRONT FROM QUEBEC             
 THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH WEAK LIFT NOTED EMBEDDED WITHIN               
 THE UPPER FLOW WILL EXPAND MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FOR              
 THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT.                                        
 ALL MODELS FAVOR A LONG TRAJECTORY OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITHIN                
 THE SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF               
 AN APPROACHING ARCTIC BOUNDARY DURING FRIDAY. HAVE ADJUSTED AND                
 INCREASES POPS AS FRONTAL CONVERGENCE INCREASES ACROSS THE CWA                 
 DURING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.                                                
 ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE PRESSES THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL TO THE                  
 SOUTH OF THE CWA DURING SATURDAY. THIS HELPS ESTABLISH A GRADUAL               
 CLEARING TREND FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY               
 NIGHT. NEXT POTENTIAL BOUT OF WINTER WEATHER FOR THE CWA COMES IN              
 RESPONSE TO ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE              
 NORTHEAST INITIATING CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONTAL                     
 BOUNDARY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE TRENDING            
 WITH MORE OF A CONSENSUS TO TAKE THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS OR JUST                
 SOUTH OF THE CWA WHICH WOULD RESULT IN SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH AND               
 AND AT LEAST MIXED PRECIPITATION DOWNEAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.             
 AVIATION /08Z-06Z/...                                                          
 GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH NOONTIME. MVFR CIGS AND VSBY ARE              
 THEN POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS               
 THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF              
 THE REGION.                                                                    
 MARINE...                                                                      
 SHORT TERM: WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW SCA CRITERIA THIS MORNING BUT             
 SEAS REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT DUE TO SOUTHWEST SWELL. SEAS WILL REMAIN                
 ABOVE SCA FOR MOST OF TODAY AND THEN WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE                  
 TODAY AS FRESH SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS. SINCE                
 WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GO ABOVE SCA CRITERIA THIS EVENING WILL                  
 CONTINUE SCA. SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING               
 AND THEN DROP BELOW SCA LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE               
 BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.                                                      
 LONG TERM: TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE                
 CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH              
 FROM QUEBEC PROVINCE WILL INCREASE SOUTHWEST WINDS TO STRONG SCA               
 CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. AFTER A BRIEF                 
 DECREASE IN WINDS...INCREASING CAA MAY RETURN CONDITIONS TO SCA                
 LEVELS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING.                               
 &&                                                                             
 .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 ME...NONE.                                                                     
 MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ050.             
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SHORT TERM UPDATE/MARINE...KHW                                                 
</pre> me                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                          
 412 PM EST THU JAN 11 2007                                                     
 .SYNOPSIS...                                                                   
 20Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED TROUGHING            
 EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND RIDGING OVER              
 THE SOUTHEAST U.S.. THERE ARE A FEW WEAK SHRTWVS MOVING THROUGH THE            
 SW FLOW BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND RIDGE...BUT DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF              
 DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS AS SEEN ON 12Z SOUNDING...NOT MUCH IS                
 OCCURRING WITH THEM. ONE OF THE SHRTWVS IS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN              
 NEBRASKA...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT           
 REAR QUADRANT OF A 130KT JET MAX MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO AND           
 800-600MB FRONTOGENESIS...HAS HELPED TO PRODUCE BANDS OF LIGHT TO              
 MODERATE REFLECTIVITIES IN MINNESOTA. HOWEVER...AGAIN WITH THE                 
 PRESENCE OF DRY AIR...VERY FEW LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING SNOWFALL.               
 CLOSER TO HOME...TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF A COLD           
 FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1009 MB LOW IN NORTHERN LAKE             
 SUPERIOR...ACROSS THE WESTERN U.P. AND INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.               
 BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN COLD             
 AIR FROM THE PLAINS. RIGHT NOW READINGS ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS               
 BELOW ZERO F OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND EVEN NEAR 20 BELOW F OVER CENTRAL           
 MANITOBA. THE ACTUAL SURFACE HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD READINGS            
 IS LOCATED IN CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN (PRESSURE NEAR 1040MB).                     
 &&                                                                             
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 SHRTWV OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA LATER           
 TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT TO BEGIN MAKING MORE OF A PUSH               
 EASTWARD. THIS SHRTWV...COMBINED WITH THE UPPER DIVERGENCE AND                 
 FRONTOGENESIS MENTIONED EARLIER...MAY SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER             
 THE CWA TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH THE DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...               
 ACTUAL PCPN AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN SMALL. WAS NEARLY TEMPTED TO                 
 MENTION SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE DUE TO THE LOW LEVELS MOISTENING UP              
 BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT THE SEEDER-FEEDER PROCESS LOOKS TO OCCUR           
 AT THE TIME THE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN...SO KEPT THE FREEZING DRIZZLE              
 MENTION OUT. ALSO...AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES...THE COLDER AIR SEEN             
 OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THE PLAINS WILL ADVECT INTO THE                    
 CWA...ALLOWING FOR SOME LES TO START UP. LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS AND             
 LACK OF CONVERGENCE WILL KEEP THE SNOW LIGHT. THEREFORE SNOW                   
 ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS FOR ALL OF TONIGHT SHOULD ONLY BE AN INCH OR              
 LESS. HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES IN THE EASTERN CWA AS IT LOOKS LIKE             
 THE COLD AIR WILL TAKE THE LONGEST TO GET THERE...AND ALSO MATCHES             
 BETTER WITH MAV/MET GUIDANCE. COLDEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OUT WEST           
 WHERE COLDER AIR MAKES IT IN FIRST.                                            
 ON FRI...THE UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SPLIT IN TWO AS A RESULT               
 OF A POLAR LOW DROPPING S THROUGH THE NUNAVUT REGION WHICH INDUCES             
 RIDGING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THIS MOTION ALLOWS FOR THE HIGH             
 PRESSURE AREA OVER SASKATCHEWAN TO DROP DOWN INTO THE DAKOTAS.                 
 NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRAG              
 COLDER AIR INTO UPPER MICHIGAN...AS NOTED TOO BY 850MB TEMPS ON THE            
 GFS/NAM FALLING TO -16 TO -20C BY 00Z SAT. THEREFORE MOST IF                   
 NOT ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE THEIR HIGHS IN THE MORNING...WITH                 
 READINGS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. THIS COLD ADVECTION IS ALSO                  
 ASSOCIATED WITH DRY AIR...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT RIGHT NOW PICKLE               
 LAKE ONTARIOS DEWPOINT IS -17F. SO ALTHOUGH LAKE EFFECT SNOW                   
 SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE COLD AIR...THAT DRY AIR AND                    
 CONTINUED LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS SHOULD KEEP SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AT AN             
 INCH OR LESS...ESPECIALLY WITH NO CONVERGENCE AREAS ANTICIPATED.               
 FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...GFS/UKMET/ECMWF ALL SHOW THE UPPER LOW OVER           
 THE NUNAVUT AREA DROPPING INTO HUDSON BAY...MAINTAINING A WESTERLY             
 FLOW ALOFT AT 500MB OVER UPPER MICHIGAN. THE RESULT OF THE LOW                 
 DROPPING SOUTHWARD IS TO CAUSE THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE                 
 DAKOTAS TO EXPAND EASTWARD. IN FACT...BY 18Z SAT...THE MODELS                  
 SUGGEST THAT THE AREA WILL DROP S OF THE AREA. THEREFORE...LIGHT               
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT ARE OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHERN U.P.             
 WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT MORNING...BEFORE THE WINDS TURN WSW AND PUSH            
 MUCH OF THE LAKE EFFECT OFFSHORE. IT APPEARS THAT WITH THE WINDS               
 LIGHTENING DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN FRI NIGHT...             
 LAND BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE OF AN INFLUENCE... ALLOWING           
 FOR SOME AREAS OF CONVERGENCE TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER... SOUNDINGS                 
 CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS (UNDER 5000FT) AND PLENTY OF            
 DRY AIR...SO EVEN CONVERGENT BANDS SHOULD NOT PRODUCE MUCH SNOW.               
 TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL FRI NIGHT... ESPECIALLY GIVEN             
 THE COLD AIR THAT ENTERED THE CWA ON FRI. HOWEVER...THESE READINGS             
 ARE AROUND NORMAL. IF MORE CLEARING OCCURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE                 
 INTERIOR...SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS ARE LIKELY. RETURN FLOW SETTING            
 UP ON SAT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND A BIT...BACK UP INTO            
 THE UPPER TEENS/LOW 20S. IN FACT...THE GFS SHOWS 850MB TEMPS WARMING           
 TO AROUND -12C BY 00Z SUN.                                                     
 SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY IS PROGGED TO MOVE              
 INTO NW QUEBEC SUN MORNING AND THEN INTO NEWFOUNDLAND BY 00Z MON. A            
 COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO             
 THE CWA SUN MORNING...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE               
 AREA WHICH BUILDS INTO THE DAKOTAS LATE SUN. DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE              
 FRONT SHOULD KEEP IT PRECIPITATION FREE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SURGE OF            
 COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW.                
 AGAIN...THE AIR SINCE IT IS OF ARCTIC ORIGIN WILL NOT HAVE MUCH                
 MOISTURE WITH IT...KEEPING THE LAKE EFFECT LIGHT. ALTHOUGH COOLER              
 AIR IS HEADING INTO THE CWA...850MB TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR -19C BY              
 00Z MON PER THE GFS...SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR             
 NORMAL DUE TO NORTHERLY FLOW BRINGING LAKE SUPERIOR MODIFIED AIR               
 INTO THE CWA.                                                                  
 EXTENDED (MON THROUGH THU)...OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL GOOD            
 AGREEMENT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...SUGGESTING IN THE MEAN TROUGHING           
 TO REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND RIDGING IN WESTERN NORTH                    
 AMERICA...A TYPICAL WINTER TIME PATTERN.                                       
 AS THE SYSTEM IN THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES OFF TO THE NE SUN                       
 NIGHT...NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND IT WILL CONTINUE TO DRAG COLDER BUT              
 DRY AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. BY 00Z TUE...THE ECMWF SHOWS           
 850MB TEMPS FALLING ABOUT 6C FROM 00Z MON TO -19C. THEREFORE EXPECT            
 SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO OCCUR...BUT NOTHING TOO HEAVY DUE TO THE              
 DRY AIR AND LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS AS SEEN ON GFS SOUNDINGS. THIS               
 POOL OF COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO HEAD OFF TO THE E ON TUE AS A PORTION           
 OF THE WESTERN NORTH AMERICA RIDGE IS PUSHED INTO CENTRAL CANADA.              
 LAKE EFFECT WILL PROBABLY PERSIST INTO TUE...BUT WITH A SURFACE                
 RIDGE MOVING IN RESULTING IN EVEN DRIER AIR AND LOWER INVERSIONS...            
 NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF SNOWFALL. ON WED...THE RIDGE AXIS OVER                  
 CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE SE OVER UPPER MICHIGAN AS A RESULT OF A               
 CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. THE 06Z             
 GFS/00Z ECMWF BOTH DEPICT THIS CLIPPER TO BE LOCATED OVER NW                   
 ONTARIO. BOTH MODELS DEPICT THE BETTER LIFT STAYING NORTH OF LAKE              
 SUPERIOR...AND WITH A DRY AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE FROM TUE...PREFER           
 NOT TO INSERT ANY POPS FOR THE CLIPPER. HOWEVER...WSW WARM AIR                 
 ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER WILL RESULT IN A BREEZY DAY. BY 00Z             
 THU...THE ECMWF SHOWS 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING UP TO 10C...SO LAKE                 
 EFFECT WILL LIKELY NOT SHUT OFF BUT JUST RE-ALIGN TO THE WIND                  
 DIRECTION. FOR WED NIGHT INTO THU...A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE               
 CLIPPER ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHRTWV ARE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS            
 THE CWA...SO KEPT SOME LOW CHANCE POPS IN FOR THOSE. OVERALL                   
 THOUGH...THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT MUCH                
 PRECIPITATION IS GOING TO OCCUR.                                               
 &&                                                                             
 .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                       
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 AJ                                                                             
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                          
 1125 AM EST THU JAN 11 2007                                                    
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TRACKING THRU ONTARIO. AT THE            
 SFC...ASSOCIATED BROAD SFC LOW APPEARS TO BE CENTERED OVER FAR NRN             
 LAKE SUPERIOR. TROFFINESS HANGS BACK ACROSS NRN MN WITH ARCTIC AIR             
 JUST TO THE N IN ONTARIO AND MANITOBA. FARTHER W...ARCTIC AIR IS               
 SURGING S ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. UPPER DIVERGENCE IN RIGHT ENTRANCE OF            
 JET ASSOCIATED WITH ONTARIO SHORTWAVE IS LEADING TO RADAR RETURNS IN           
 NE MN...BUT HAVE NOT SEEN ANY SFC OBS INDICATING PCPN. LOW-LEVEL JET           
 HAS SHIFTED E OF FCST AREA...AND WITH BAGGY PRES GRADIENT                      
 DEVELOPING...WINDS ARE DIMINISHING FROM W TO E THIS MORNING.                   
 GOING FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE AFTN AND REQUIRES LITTLE IF ANY            
 CHANGE. AS UPPER JET TRANSLATES E THIS AFTN...UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL            
 ALSO SHIFT E. GIVEN THE RADAR RETURNS IN NE MN...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE          
 QUESTION THAT A FEW -SHSN MAY DEVELOP OVER THE FAR W TOWARD EVENING.           
 OTHERWISE...EXPECT A DRY AFTN. CLOUDS SHOULD GENERALLY HOLD TOUGH              
 THRU THE AFTN...BUT VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CLOUDS ARE                 
 FAIRLY THIN ACROSS NRN WI INTO SRN UPPER MI. THIS MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO           
 GET A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN 36-38F IN THE GOING FCST.                  
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... ISSUED AT 330 AM EST                                       
 00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WSW FLOW ALF BTWN            
 DEEPENING TROF OVER THE PAC NW (12Z-24Z H3 HGT FALLS UP TO 200M                
 THERE WITH SHRTWV DIGGING ALG THE PAC NW COAST) AND UPR RDG AXIS               
 MOVING INTO SE ONTARIO. STRONG SHRTWV EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW IS             
 MOVING INTO SRN MANITOBA...WITH ONLY WEAK SFC LO OVER ERN ND JUST NW           
 OF FAR. STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT NOTED IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHRTWV...            
 AND MQT VWP SHOWS S WINDS UP TO 55KT AT 3K FT MSL. GALE FORCE WINDS            
 OBSVD OVER LK SUP FM ISLE ROYALE TO STANNARD ROCK. STRONG WAD HAS              
 CONTRIBUTED TO EXTENSIVE MID CLD DECK OVER THE UPR GRT LKS...BUT DRY           
 AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z GRB RAOBS/ TAMDAR SDNG FM SAW BTWN H9-775 OR SO           
 HAS RESTRICTED SN FOR THE MOST PART TO THE COLD SIDE OF H85 WARM               
 FNT...LOCATED AT 00Z FM CKC-CMX-ERY...WHERE 0Z GFS F6 ALSO SHOWS               
 SOME UPR DVGC. LTL IF ANY PCPN NOTED CLOSER TO THE SFC LO AND ALG              
 ATTENDANT LO PRES TROF STRETCHING TO THE SW AS 00Z BIS/ABR/MPX SDNGS           
 EXCESSIVELY DRY. MUCH COLDER AIR OBSVD OVER MT/ADJOINING AREAS IN              
 SRN CAN.                                                                       
 MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE ARE PCPN CHCS ASSOCIATED WITH                  
 SHRTWV/SFC LO TO THE WNW TDAY AND THEN DISTURBANCES IN WSW FLOW ALF            
 IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHRTWV LATER AS VERY COLD AIR TO THE NW POISED             
 TO MOVE INTO THE UPR GRT LKS.                                                  
 FOR TDAY...NAM/GFS/UKMET SHOW SFC LO OVER NE MN THIS MRNG MOVING               
 ACRS NRN LK SUP INTO SE ONTARIO BY 00Z AS SHRTV NR LK WINNIPEG                 
 SHEARS ENE ACRS ONTARIO...WITH ATTENDANT LO PRES TROF DRIFTING INTO            
 THE CNTRL ZNS BY 00Z FRI. GIVEN EXCESSIVELY DRY AIRMASS UPSTREAM AT            
 BIS/MPX/ ABR...PREFER THE DRIER NAM FCST (ZERO QPF) AS SHARPER                 
 ISENTROPIC LIFT/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC/LINGERING UPR DVGC/DEEPER MSTR             
 EXIT EARLY THIS MRNG AND GIVE WAY TO DRYING ALF/H85-5 QVECTOR DVGC             
 BY 18Z. IN FACT...GFS FCST SDNGS DEPICT THIS MID LVL DRYING QUITE              
 WELL ABV INCREASINGLY SHALLOW MOIST LYR. TDAY WL BE WARMEST DAY OF             
 NEXT WEEK AT LEAST AS SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG LO PRES TROF                
 ADVECTS WARMER AIR FM THE SW...WHERE HI TEMPS REACHED NR 40 OR SRN             
 MN ON WED...INTO THE FA.                                                       
 GFS/UKMET/NAM SHOW A STRIPE OF HIER MID LVL RH DVLPG OVER THE NRN              
 PLAINS THIS AFTN AND STREAKING ENE INTO THE WRN CWA LATE TDAY/TNGT/            
 FRI AS WAVES OF UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF H3 JET MAXES/SHRTWVS SHEARING               
 ENEWD THRU WSW FLOW ALF IN CONFLUENCE ZN BTWN NRN/SRN BRANCHES AS              
 WELL AS ACCOMPANYING H8-7 FGEN OVER RELATIVELY SHALLOW COLD AIR TO             
 THE NW OF ARCTIC BNDRY NOW SEPARATING VERY COLD AIR IN MT/SRN CAN FM           
 WARMER AIR STILL IN THE NRN PLAINS/MN THAT IS FCST TO GRDLY OOZE SE            
 ACRS THE UPR LKS. THINK TRYING TO TIME EACH OF THESE WAVES WL BE               
 FRUITLESS ATTM...SO WL CARRY CHC POPS ACRS MOST OF THE AREA THRU FRI           
 TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FGEN FORCING/POTENTIAL LES AS COLDER AIR GRDLY             
 OVERSPRDS THE FA. IN GENERAL...WL GO WITH HIER CHC POPS TO THE NW              
 EARLY IN THE PD AND GRDLY SHIFT THE HIER POPS TO THE SE AS ARCTIC              
 BNDRY DRIFTS SLOWLY SE WITH TIME. RELATIVELY SHALLOW DEPTH OF COLD             
 AIR AS WELL AS NEUTRAL-ALMOST ACYC LARGER SCALE LLVL FLOW WOULD SUG            
 ANY LES WL BE ON THE LGT SIDE DESPITE ARRIVAL OF MUCH COLDER AIR BLO           
 SHALLOW INVRN (GFS/NAM SHOW INVRN BASE TEMPS APRCHG -20C OVER THE NW           
 BY LATE FRI). WL TEND TOWARD THE LO SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE GIVEN HI              
 STABILITY/SHALLOW NATURE OF ENCROACHING ARCTIC AIR.                            
 ON FRI NGT/SAT...UPR CONFLUENCE ZN PROGGED TO PUSH FAR ENUF S THAT             
 DRY ARCTIC HI PRES CENTER DRIFTS OVER THE FA. WL DIMINISH POPS TO NO           
 HIER THAN 30 NR LK SUP ON LATE FRI NGT/SAT TO REFLECT INCRSGLY                 
 HOSTILE CONDITIONS FOR LES. MADE A FEW CHGS TO THE SAT NGT/SUN PD TO           
 REFLECT TREND TOWARD MORE AGGRESSIVE NRN BRANCH THAT WL AT LEAST               
 DELAY THE PROGRESSION OF THE SW UPR TROF TO THE NE. IN GENERAL CUT             
 POPS A BIT DURING THIS TIME WITH GREATER INFLUENCE OF DRIER NRN                
 BRANCH.                                                                        
 COORDINATED WITH GRB.                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                       
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 ROLFSON (UPDATE)                                                               
 KC (PREV DISCUSSION)                                                           
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                          
 330 AM EST THU JAN 11 2007                                                     
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WSW FLOW ALF BTWN            
 DEEPENING TROF OVER THE PAC NW (12Z-24Z H3 HGT FALLS UP TO 200M                
 THERE WITH SHRTWV DIGGING ALG THE PAC NW COAST) AND UPR RDG AXIS               
 MOVING INTO SE ONTARIO. STRONG SHRTWV EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW IS             
 MOVING INTO SRN MANITOBA...WITH ONLY WEAK SFC LO OVER ERN ND JUST NW           
 OF FAR. STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT NOTED IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHRTWV...            
 AND MQT VWP SHOWS S WINDS UP TO 55KT AT 3K FT MSL. GALE FORCE WINDS            
 OBSVD OVER LK SUP FM ISLE ROYALE TO STANNARD ROCK. STRONG WAD HAS              
 CONTRIBUTED TO EXTENSIVE MID CLD DECK OVER THE UPR GRT LKS...BUT DRY           
 AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z GRB RAOBS/ TAMDAR SDNG FM SAW BTWN H9-775 OR SO           
 HAS RESTRICTED SN FOR THE MOST PART TO THE COLD SIDE OF H85 WARM               
 FNT...LOCATED AT 00Z FM CKC-CMX-ERY...WHERE 0Z GFS F6 ALSO SHOWS               
 SOME UPR DVGC. LTL IF ANY PCPN NOTED CLOSER TO THE SFC LO AND ALG              
 ATTENDANT LO PRES TROF STRETCHING TO THE SW AS 00Z BIS/ABR/MPX SDNGS           
 EXCESSIVELY DRY. MUCH COLDER AIR OBSVD OVER MT/ADJOINING AREAS IN              
 SRN CAN.                                                                       
 MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE ARE PCPN CHCS ASSOCIATED WITH                  
 SHRTWV/SFC LO TO THE WNW TDAY AND THEN DISTURBANCES IN WSW FLOW ALF            
 IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHRTWV LATER AS VERY COLD AIR TO THE NW POISED             
 TO MOVE INTO THE UPR GRT LKS.                                                  
 FOR TDAY...NAM/GFS/UKMET SHOW SFC LO OVER NE MN THIS MRNG MOVING               
 ACRS NRN LK SUP INTO SE ONTARIO BY 00Z AS SHRTV NR LK WINNIPEG                 
 SHEARS ENE ACRS ONTARIO...WITH ATTENDANT LO PRES TROF DRIFTING INTO            
 THE CNTRL ZNS BY 00Z FRI. GIVEN EXCESSIVELY DRY AIRMASS UPSTREAM AT            
 BIS/MPX/ ABR...PREFER THE DRIER NAM FCST (ZERO QPF) AS SHARPER                 
 ISENTROPIC LIFT/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC/LINGERING UPR DVGC/DEEPER MSTR             
 EXIT EARLY THIS MRNG AND GIVE WAY TO DRYING ALF/H85-5 QVECTOR DVGC             
 BY 18Z. IN FACT...GFS FCST SDNGS DEPICT THIS MID LVL DRYING QUITE              
 WELL ABV INCREASINGLY SHALLOW MOIST LYR. TDAY WL BE WARMEST DAY OF             
 NEXT WEEK AT LEAST AS SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG LO PRES TROF                
 ADVECTS WARMER AIR FM THE SW...WHERE HI TEMPS REACHED NR 40 OR SRN             
 MN ON WED...INTO THE FA.                                                       
 GFS/UKMET/NAM SHOW A STRIPE OF HIER MID LVL RH DVLPG OVER THE NRN              
 PLAINS THIS AFTN AND STREAKING ENE INTO THE WRN CWA LATE TDAY/TNGT/            
 FRI AS WAVES OF UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF H3 JET MAXES/SHRTWVS SHEARING               
 ENEWD THRU WSW FLOW ALF IN CONFLUENCE ZN BTWN NRN/SRN BRANCHES AS              
 WELL AS ACCOMPANYING H8-7 FGEN OVER RELATIVELY SHALLOW COLD AIR TO             
 THE NW OF ARCTIC BNDRY NOW SEPARATING VERY COLD AIR IN MT/SRN CAN FM           
 WARMER AIR STILL IN THE NRN PLAINS/MN THAT IS FCST TO GRDLY OOZE SE            
 ACRS THE UPR LKS. THINK TRYING TO TIME EACH OF THESE WAVES WL BE               
 FRUITLESS ATTM...SO WL CARRY CHC POPS ACRS MOST OF THE AREA THRU FRI           
 TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FGEN FORCING/POTENTIAL LES AS COLDER AIR GRDLY             
 OVERSPRDS THE FA. IN GENERAL...WL GO WITH HIER CHC POPS TO THE NW              
 EARLY IN THE PD AND GRDLY SHIFT THE HIER POPS TO THE SE AS ARCTIC              
 BNDRY DRIFTS SLOWLY SE WITH TIME. RELATIVELY SHALLOW DEPTH OF COLD             
 AIR AS WELL AS NEUTRAL-ALMOST ACYC LARGER SCALE LLVL FLOW WOULD SUG            
 ANY LES WL BE ON THE LGT SIDE DESPITE ARRIVAL OF MUCH COLDER AIR BLO           
 SHALLOW INVRN (GFS/NAM SHOW INVRN BASE TEMPS APRCHG -20C OVER THE NW           
 BY LATE FRI). WL TEND TOWARD THE LO SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE GIVEN HI              
 STABILITY/SHALLOW NATURE OF ENCROACHING ARCTIC AIR.                            
 ON FRI NGT/SAT...UPR CONFLUENCE ZN PROGGED TO PUSH FAR ENUF S THAT             
 DRY ARCTIC HI PRES CENTER DRIFTS OVER THE FA. WL DIMINISH POPS TO NO           
 HIER THAN 30 NR LK SUP ON LATE FRI NGT/SAT TO REFLECT INCRSGLY                 
 HOSTILE CONDITIONS FOR LES. MADE A FEW CHGS TO THE SAT NGT/SUN PD TO           
 REFLECT TREND TOWARD MORE AGGRESSIVE NRN BRANCH THAT WL AT LEAST               
 DELAY THE PROGRESSION OF THE SW UPR TROF TO THE NE. IN GENERAL CUT             
 POPS A BIT DURING THIS TIME WITH GREATER INFLUENCE OF DRIER NRN                
 BRANCH.                                                                        
 COORDINATED WITH GRB.                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
  GALE WARNING E HALF LAKE SUPERIOR UNTIL 8 AM EST.                             
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 KC                                                                             
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                           
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                            
 938 PM EST WED JAN 10 2007                                                     
 ...CORRECTED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY STATEMENT BELOW...                         
 .UPDATE...SFC/RUC/SATELLITE/RADAR AND UPPER ANALYSIS SHOWING                   
 ELEVATED WARM FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN WITH NICE                
 H7-H5 FGEN AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL MOISTURE BAND FROM FAR NRN LAKE            
 MICHIGAN TO FAR NE LOWER MICHIGAN. ECHOES SEEN ON RADAR ARE NOT                
 HITTING THE SFC...AND ARE PURE VIRGA AT THIS POINT. THERE IS SOME              
 MINOR LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES THAT HAVE BEEN PESTERING THE MANISTIQUE             
 AREA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT...WHERE H8 TEMPS HAVE LINGERED            
 AROUND THE -8C RANGE...BARELY COLD ENOUGH FOR DEEP ENOUGH OVER LAKE            
 INSTABILITY...AND JUST ENOUGH FETCH TO RESULT IN FLURRIES. AIR IS              
 WARMING ACROSS THIS ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND LAKE EFFECT            
 WILL COME TO AN END. LOW CLOUDS IN THIS AREA WILL FOLLOW...ENDING              
 LATE TONIGHT.                                                                  
 AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON...ELEVATED WARM FRONTAL/MOISTURE/FGEN BAND               
 WILL LIFT INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND DEPART ALL BUT NRN                   
 CHIPPEWA COUNTY BY DAYBREAK. THIS AREA OF CONCERN WILL THEN LIFT OUT           
 OF ALL OF EASTERN UPPER BY 15Z TOMORROW. BOTH GFS/NAM SHOWING                  
 STRONGER H8 WINDS/WAA DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY TOMORROW               
 MORNING...ALONG WITH EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF WEAKISH SHORTWAVE                 
 ENERGY AHEAD OF SFC LOW PRESSURE...WHICH WILL RIDE ACROSS EASTERN              
 LAKE SUPERIOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS IS GOING TO RESULT IN A FEW             
 CONCERNS...                                                                    
 THE FGEN WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN BETTER CHANCES FOR             
 THE MOISTURE CHANNEL TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MAINLY              
 EASTERN UPPER/CHIPPEWA COUNTY...AND THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR CHEBOYGAN             
 AND PELLSTON AREAS AS WINDS HAVE BACKED INTO A E/ENE DIRECTION OFF             
 LAKE HURON (POSSIBLE LAKE HELP). TOTAL OVERNIGHT SNOWFALL WILL BE              
 MINIMAL AT BEST...BUT AN INCH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR EASTERN           
 CHIP AND MACKINAC COUNTIES WITH A LITTLE EARLY HELP FROM LAKE HURON.           
 ALSO...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS RAMP UP WITH H8 SPEEDS REACHING                      
 50KTS...GALES BECOME A CONCERN...EVEN UNDER THE INCREASINGLY STABLE            
 BOUNDARY LAYER. CURRENT WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS            
 ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN LOOK REASONABLE ATTM WITH THE HELP OF COASTAL              
 CONVERGENCE...BUT WITH WIND SPEEDS THIS STRONG...AND HIGH RESOLUTION           
 NAM12 SUGGESTING A SHALLOW MIXED LAYER TAPPING INTO 35-40 KNOTS OVER           
 THE MAJORITY OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS...WILL GO AHEAD AND EXPAND                
 GALES TO ALL BUT THE STRAITS TO PRESQUE ISLE...WHERE THE SE-SW WINDS           
 WILL RESULT IN MINIMAL OVER WATER TRAJECTORY. SURELY WOULD EXPECT TO           
 SEE SPEEDS JUST OFF THE SFC...SUCH AS THE MACKINAC BRIDGE...AND IN             
 THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF INTERIOR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN PICK UP INTO THE             
 20-30KT RANGE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT THE BRIDGE.              
 WILL INCLUDE STRONGER WINDS IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS. THIS              
 WARMING AND STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO                   
 INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...REACHING THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S BY           
 DAYBREAK.                                                                      
 AVIATION...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL ONLY RAMP UP FURTHER TONIGHT.             
 APX VAD WINDS ONLY SHOWING 15-20KTS RIGHT NOW AT 2KFT...BUT 25-30KTS           
 AT 2KFT ARE ALREADY SWEEPING INTO THE GTV BAY REGION. CURRENT TAFS             
 ALREADY HAVE THIS SCENARIO LAID OUT...AND FORESEE NO CHANGES HERE AT           
 THE 06Z ISSUANCES. MVFR CEILINGS TO REMAIN UP IN EASTERN UPPER WITH            
 SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF FAR NRN LAKES MICHIGAN AND HURON...BUT LOW LEVEL            
 MOISTURE CHANNEL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT AND           
 INTO THE TVC/PLN AIRPORTS. THIS IS PORTRAYED IN THE CURRENT TAFS AS            
 WELL..AND FORESEE NO CHANGES TO THIS ATTM.    SMD                              
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 416 PM EST WED JAN 10 2007                          
 DISCUSSION....EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...LATEST SURFACE/RUC ANALYSIS AND           
 VIS/IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS            
 WHOSE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BISECTS LOWER MICHIGAN.  LOW LEVEL WINDS              
 STARTING TO REFLECT THE AXIS PASSAGE WITH LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW               
 SHOWERS OVER NW LOWER AND TIP OF THE MITT DIMINISHING AS THE                   
 DISORGANIZED BANDS ARE TRYING TO ORIENT THEMSELVES IN THE SW-NE                
 DIRECTION.  THESE BANDS ARE ALSO FIGHTING PLENTY OF DRY AIR AS ACARS           
 SOUNDINGS FROM PLN AND TVC SHOW INVERSION HEIGHTS CONTINUING TO FALL           
 TO AROUND 860MB. AWAY FROM THE LES BANDS...SKIES HAVE TURNED PARTLY            
 TO MOSTLY SUNNY.  MEANWHILE UPSTREAM...STRONG SHORTWAVE NOW OVER               
 ALBERTA AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE IS TRUCKING EAST ALONG THE                 
 CANADIAN BORDER...HELPING TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE            
 PLAINS.  WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS RIDING OVER THE 850MB WARM FRONT            
 LOCATED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ARE STARTING TO                
 CROSS LAKE MICHIGAN...AND WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT ACROSS THE CWA               
 LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THE INTERACTION OF THIS WARM FRONT AS            
 IT MOVES NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND WEAKENING LES WILL BE THE MAIN                
 FORECAST CONCERN TONIGHT.                                                      
 TONIGHT...UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE IT TO MANITOBA (ASSOCIATED              
 SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO WESTERN ONTARIO) BY 12Z THURSDAY MORNING.              
 THIS WAVE WILL HELP INCREASE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT AND PUSH           
 A 850MB WARM FRONT TO THE NORTHEAST TO NORTHERN LOWER BY 12Z. AS IT            
 DOES SO...850MB TEMPERATURES MODERATE ALOT FROM MINUS 6-9C AT 00Z              
 OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TO 0 TO MINUS 3 BY 12Z. A SURGE OF                 
 MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS WAA...WHICH REDUCES CONDENSATION                  
 PRESSURE DEFICITS ON THE 285K AND 290K ISENTROPIC SURFACES TO LESS             
 THAN 10MB BY APPROXIMATELY 03Z. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS DIFFER                       
 OVERNIGHT...WITH THE NAM NOT NEARLY AS MOIST BELOW 800MB AS THE                
 GFS.  WITH ONSHORE FLOW OVER EASTERN UPPER FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WHILE            
 DELTA T/S REMAINING ABOVE 8C DURING THE EVENING...LIKE THE MORE                
 MOIST SCENARIO DEPICTED BY THE GFS...AND WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS                 
 ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AFTER 03Z.  LOWER LEVELS LOOK TO DRY OVER                 
 NORTHERN LOWER FOR PRECIP AT THIS TIME.  TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM              
 OUT DURING THE EVENING TONIGHT BUT THEN SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH             
 THE INCOMING WARM AIR.                                                         
 MARINE...TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINED WITH OVER-LAKE                  
 INSTABILITY AND COASTAL CONVERGENCE WILL CREATE WIND SPEEDS AT 925MB           
 TO 40-50KTS TONIGHT AND GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ALONG THE LAKE                   
 MICHIGAN SHORELINE FROM MANISTEE TO THE STRAITS.  ELSEWHERE...MIXING           
 TO 925MB REVEALS WIND GUSTS COULD POTENTIALLY REACH BETWEEN 30-35              
 KNOTS...OR JUST BELOW GALE FORCE...SO WILL INTRODUCE SMALL CRAFTS              
 EVERYWHERE ELSE.                                                               
 MPC                                                                            
 FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...COLD AIR CONTINUES TO MODERATE AND             
 RAPIDLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION EARLY ON WHILE LOW AMPLITUDE MID               
 LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN STATES...BUT NEXT CORE OF              
 COLD AIR DESCENDS INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. ONE PIECE OF ENERGY (NOW               
 NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG) FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH AN            
 ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT SLOWING MOVING THROUGH           
 AND IMPACTING THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MAIN FORECAST                
 ISSUES FOR THE NEAR TERM REVOLVE AROUND PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPE AS             
 THIS SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH.                                                    
 THURSDAY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED            
 SFC LOW FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO ONTARIO DURING THE DAY...WITH A           
 WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AND             
 TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. DECENT           
 SHOT OF WARM ADVECTION MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE BAND OF LIGHT                  
 SNOWFALL ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL               
 KEEP A CHANCE GOING IN THE FORECAST FOR THAT AREA...ALTHOUGH LOWER             
 LAYERS ARE A BIT ON THE DRY SIDE. BUT WITHOUT ANY HELP FROM THE                
 LAKES (TEMPS TOO WARM) ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT                
 SIDE. THURSDAY AFTERNOON...NORTHERN MICHIGAN WELL INTO THE WARM                
 SECTOR WITH STRONG SW WINDS CONTINUING AND AFTERNOON TEMPS WARMING             
 BACK INTO THE 30S TO AROUND 40 (WOULD BE EVEN WARMER WERE IT NOT FOR           
 THE SNOW COVER). MEANWHILE...BOTH NAM AND PARTICULARLY THE GFS                 
 DEPICT SUBSTANTIAL MOISTENING IN THE SUB 800 MB LAYER DURING THE               
 AFTERNOON (WARMER THAN -6C) AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...WHILE             
 MOISTURE ALOFT STRIPS OUT. NOT MUCH OUT THERE UPSTREAM TODAY IN                
 TERMS OF LOW CLOUDS TO HANG YOUR HAT ON...BUT CAN SEE THIS TAKING              
 SHAPE AS WARMER/MOIST AIR SURGES NORTH ACROSS THE SNOW COVER IN                
 NORTHERN MICHIGAN. REMOVED MENTION OF ANY RAIN/SNOW FROM THE                   
 FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON...BUT MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE THERE TO GET           
 SOME DRIZZLE GOING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.                 
 THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY PRESSES EAST/SE              
 THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AND SETTLE TO OUR            
 SOUTH. ALTHOUGH STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINLY REGARDING POPS                
 DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...PERHAPS ENOUGH FORCING/MOISTURE ALONG THE              
 FRONT TO SQUEEZE OUT MEASURABLE PRECIP BOTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO                
 FRIDAY...WITH PRIMARILY SNOW OVER THE NRN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA AND            
 RAIN/SNOW OVER THE SOUTH. ALSO...AS COLDER AIR SLOWLY FILTERS INTO             
 THE REGION...SHOULD START TO GET THE LAKES MORE INVOLVED BY FRIDAY.            
 BUT OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS LOOKING TO BE ON THE MINOR SIDE AT THIS              
 POINT.                                                                         
 SATURDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH OF THE REGION           
 BY EARLY SATURDAY WITH COLDER AIR ONCE AGAIN SETTLING INTO THE STATE           
 FOR THE WEEKEND. SPLIT FLOW REGIME EMERGES ACROSS THE LOWER 48                 
 STATES BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A            
 CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST            
 INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION AND LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN           
 HALF OF THE CONUS. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BROAD NRN             
 STREAM HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND WESTERN             
 GREAT LAKES SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH TEMPS RUNNING NEAR                 
 NORMAL. STILL COLD ENOUGH HOWEVER FOR SOME LIGHT LAKE SNOW SHOWERS             
 DURING THIS TIME ALTHOUGH PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT TO PINPOINT THE             
 EXACT FLOW REGIME AND LOCATIONS WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW. BY             
 LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...SRN STREAM CUTOFF SYSTEM             
 LOOKING TO LIFT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. SYSTEM           
 COULD PRODUCE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SNOW (SYSTEM AND LAKE ENHANCED)               
 ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN IF CURRENT SCENARIO PANS OUT. THEN AGAIN...              
 MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS HAVE SHOWN A GOOD AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH            
 REGARD TO LOCATION OF THE STORM TRACK AND TIMING/LOCATION OF                   
 DEEPENING WAVES RIDING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE UP THROUGH THE                
 REGION. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW...SOME OF THE                
 COLDEST AIR OF THE YEAR GETS PULLED INTO NRN MICHIGAN FOR TUESDAY              
 AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS              
 AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...WITH THE COLD AIR IN PLACE WILL             
 HAVE CONTINUING CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS.                                      
 ADAM                                                                           
 &&                                                                             
 .APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                          
   GALE WARNING...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY....                                  
       LMZ323-341-342-344-345-LSZ321-LHZ346-348-349.                            
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                            
 938 PM EST WED JAN 10 2007                                                     
 .UPDATE...SFC/RUC/SATELLITE/RADAR AND UPPER ANALYSIS SHOWING                   
 ELEVATED WARM FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN WITH NICE                
 H7-H5 FGEN AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL MOISTURE BAND FROM FAR NRN LAKE            
 MICHIGAN TO FAR NE LOWER MICHIGAN. ECHOES SEEN ON RADAR ARE NOT                
 HITTING THE SFC...AND ARE PURE VIRGA AT THIS POINT. THERE IS SOME              
 MINOR LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES THAT HAVE BEEN PESTERING THE MANISTIQUE             
 AREA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT...WHERE H8 TEMPS HAVE LINGERED            
 AROUND THE -8C RANGE...BARELY COLD ENOUGH FOR DEEP ENOUGH OVER LAKE            
 INSTABILITY...AND JUST ENOUGH FETCH TO RESULT IN FLURRIES. AIR IS              
 WARMING ACROSS THIS ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND LAKE EFFECT            
 WILL COME TO AN END. LOW CLOUDS IN THIS AREA WILL FOLLOW...ENDING              
 LATE TONIGHT.                                                                  
 AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON...ELEVATED WARM FRONTAL/MOISTURE/FGEN BAND               
 WILL LIFT INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND DEPART ALL BUT NRN                   
 CHIPPEWA COUNTY BY DAYBREAK. THIS AREA OF CONCERN WILL THEN LIFT OUT           
 OF ALL OF EASTERN UPPER BY 15Z TOMORROW. BOTH GFS/NAM SHOWING                  
 STRONGER H8 WINDS/WAA DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY TOMORROW               
 MORNING...ALONG WITH EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF WEAKISH SHORTWAVE                 
 ENERGY AHEAD OF SFC LOW PRESSURE...WHICH WILL RIDE ACROSS EASTERN              
 LAKE SUPERIOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS IS GOING TO RESULT IN A FEW             
 CONCERNS...                                                                    
 THE FGEN WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN BETTER CHANCES FOR             
 THE MOISTURE CHANNEL TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MAINLY              
 EASTERN UPPER/CHIPPEWA COUNTY...AND THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR CHEBOYGAN             
 AND PELLSTON AREAS AS WINDS HAVE BACKED INTO A E/ENE DIRECTION OFF             
 LAKE HURON (POSSIBLE LAKE HELP). TOTAL OVERNIGHT SNOWFALL WILL BE              
 MINIMAL AT BEST...BUT AN INCH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR EASTERN           
 CHIP AND MACKINAC COUNTIES WITH A LITTLE EARLY HELP FROM LAKE HURON.           
 ALSO...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS RAMP UP WITH H8 SPEEDS REACHING                      
 50KTS...GALES BECOME A CONCERN...EVEN UNDER THE INCREASINGLY STABLE            
 BOUNDARY LAYER. CURRENT WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS            
 ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN LOOK REASONABLE ATTM WITH THE HELP OF COASTAL              
 CONVERGENCE...BUT WITH WIND SPEEDS THIS STRONG...AND HIGH RESOLUTION           
 NAM12 SUGGESTING A SHALLOW MIXED LAYER TAPPING INTO 35-40 KNOTS OVER           
 THE MAJORITY OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS...WILL GO AHEAD AND EXPAND                
 GALES TO ALL BUT THE STRAITS TO PRESQUE ISLE...WHERE THE SE-SW WINDS           
 WILL RESULT IN MINIMAL OVER WATER TRAJECTORY. SURELY WOULD EXPECT TO           
 SEE SPEEDS JUST OFF THE SFC...SUCH AS THE MACKINAC BRIDGE...AND IN             
 THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF INTERIOR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN PICK UP INTO THE             
 20-30KT RANGE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT THE BRIDGE.              
 WILL INCLUDE STRONGER WINDS IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS. THIS              
 WARMING AND STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO                   
 INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...REACHING THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S BY           
 DAYBREAK.                                                                      
 AVIATION...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL ONLY RAMP UP FURTHER TONIGHT.             
 APX VAD WINDS ONLY SHOWING 15-20KTS RIGHT NOW AT 2KFT...BUT 25-30KTS           
 AT 2KFT ARE ALREADY SWEEPING INTO THE GTV BAY REGION. CURRENT TAFS             
 ALREADY HAVE THIS SCENARIO LAID OUT...AND FORESEE NO CHANGES HERE AT           
 THE 06Z ISSUANCES. MVFR CEILINGS TO REMAIN UP IN EASTERN UPPER WITH            
 SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF FAR NRN LAKES MICHIGAN AND HURON...BUT LOW LEVEL            
 MOISTURE CHANNEL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT AND           
 INTO THE TVC/PLN AIRPORTS. THIS IS PORTRAYED IN THE CURRENT TAFS AS            
 WELL..AND FORESEE NO CHANGES TO THIS ATTM.    SMD                              
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 416 PM EST WED JAN 10 2007                          
 DISCUSSION....EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...LATEST SURFACE/RUC ANALYSIS AND           
 VIS/IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS            
 WHOSE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BISECTS LOWER MICHIGAN.  LOW LEVEL WINDS              
 STARTING TO REFLECT THE AXIS PASSAGE WITH LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW               
 SHOWERS OVER NW LOWER AND TIP OF THE MITT DIMINISHING AS THE                   
 DISORGANIZED BANDS ARE TRYING TO ORIENT THEMSELVES IN THE SW-NE                
 DIRECTION.  THESE BANDS ARE ALSO FIGHTING PLENTY OF DRY AIR AS ACARS           
 SOUNDINGS FROM PLN AND TVC SHOW INVERSION HEIGHTS CONTINUING TO FALL           
 TO AROUND 860MB. AWAY FROM THE LES BANDS...SKIES HAVE TURNED PARTLY            
 TO MOSTLY SUNNY.  MEANWHILE UPSTREAM...STRONG SHORTWAVE NOW OVER               
 ALBERTA AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE IS TRUCKING EAST ALONG THE                 
 CANADIAN BORDER...HELPING TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE            
 PLAINS.  WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS RIDING OVER THE 850MB WARM FRONT            
 LOCATED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ARE STARTING TO                
 CROSS LAKE MICHIGAN...AND WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT ACROSS THE CWA               
 LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THE INTERACTION OF THIS WARM FRONT AS            
 IT MOVES NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND WEAKENING LES WILL BE THE MAIN                
 FORECAST CONCERN TONIGHT.                                                      
 TONIGHT...UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE IT TO MANITOBA (ASSOCIATED              
 SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO WESTERN ONTARIO) BY 12Z THURSDAY MORNING.              
 THIS WAVE WILL HELP INCREASE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT AND PUSH           
 A 850MB WARM FRONT TO THE NORTHEAST TO NORTHERN LOWER BY 12Z. AS IT            
 DOES SO...850MB TEMPERATURES MODERATE ALOT FROM MINUS 6-9C AT 00Z              
 OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TO 0 TO MINUS 3 BY 12Z. A SURGE OF                 
 MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS WAA...WHICH REDUCES CONDENSATION                  
 PRESSURE DEFICITS ON THE 285K AND 290K ISENTROPIC SURFACES TO LESS             
 THAN 10MB BY APPROXIMATELY 03Z. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS DIFFER                       
 OVERNIGHT...WITH THE NAM NOT NEARLY AS MOIST BELOW 800MB AS THE                
 GFS.  WITH ONSHORE FLOW OVER EASTERN UPPER FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WHILE            
 DELTA T/S REMAINING ABOVE 8C DURING THE EVENING...LIKE THE MORE                
 MOIST SCENARIO DEPICTED BY THE GFS...AND WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS                 
 ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AFTER 03Z.  LOWER LEVELS LOOK TO DRY OVER                 
 NORTHERN LOWER FOR PRECIP AT THIS TIME.  TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM              
 OUT DURING THE EVENING TONIGHT BUT THEN SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH             
 THE INCOMING WARM AIR.                                                         
 MARINE...TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINED WITH OVER-LAKE                  
 INSTABILITY AND COASTAL CONVERGENCE WILL CREATE WIND SPEEDS AT 925MB           
 TO 40-50KTS TONIGHT AND GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ALONG THE LAKE                   
 MICHIGAN SHORELINE FROM MANISTEE TO THE STRAITS.  ELSEWHERE...MIXING           
 TO 925MB REVEALS WIND GUSTS COULD POTENTIALLY REACH BETWEEN 30-35              
 KNOTS...OR JUST BELOW GALE FORCE...SO WILL INTRODUCE SMALL CRAFTS              
 EVERYWHERE ELSE.                                                               
 MPC                                                                            
 FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...COLD AIR CONTINUES TO MODERATE AND             
 RAPIDLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION EARLY ON WHILE LOW AMPLITUDE MID               
 LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN STATES...BUT NEXT CORE OF              
 COLD AIR DESCENDS INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. ONE PIECE OF ENERGY (NOW               
 NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG) FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH AN            
 ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT SLOWING MOVING THROUGH           
 AND IMPACTING THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MAIN FORECAST                
 ISSUES FOR THE NEAR TERM REVOLVE AROUND PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPE AS             
 THIS SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH.                                                    
 THURSDAY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED            
 SFC LOW FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO ONTARIO DURING THE DAY...WITH A           
 WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AND             
 TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. DECENT           
 SHOT OF WARM ADVECTION MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE BAND OF LIGHT                  
 SNOWFALL ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL               
 KEEP A CHANCE GOING IN THE FORECAST FOR THAT AREA...ALTHOUGH LOWER             
 LAYERS ARE A BIT ON THE DRY SIDE. BUT WITHOUT ANY HELP FROM THE                
 LAKES (TEMPS TOO WARM) ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT                
 SIDE. THURSDAY AFTERNOON...NORTHERN MICHIGAN WELL INTO THE WARM                
 SECTOR WITH STRONG SW WINDS CONTINUING AND AFTERNOON TEMPS WARMING             
 BACK INTO THE 30S TO AROUND 40 (WOULD BE EVEN WARMER WERE IT NOT FOR           
 THE SNOW COVER). MEANWHILE...BOTH NAM AND PARTICULARLY THE GFS                 
 DEPICT SUBSTANTIAL MOISTENING IN THE SUB 800 MB LAYER DURING THE               
 AFTERNOON (WARMER THAN -6C) AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...WHILE             
 MOISTURE ALOFT STRIPS OUT. NOT MUCH OUT THERE UPSTREAM TODAY IN                
 TERMS OF LOW CLOUDS TO HANG YOUR HAT ON...BUT CAN SEE THIS TAKING              
 SHAPE AS WARMER/MOIST AIR SURGES NORTH ACROSS THE SNOW COVER IN                
 NORTHERN MICHIGAN. REMOVED MENTION OF ANY RAIN/SNOW FROM THE                   
 FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON...BUT MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE THERE TO GET           
 SOME DRIZZLE GOING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.                 
 THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY PRESSES EAST/SE              
 THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AND SETTLE TO OUR            
 SOUTH. ALTHOUGH STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINLY REGARDING POPS                
 DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...PERHAPS ENOUGH FORCING/MOISTURE ALONG THE              
 FRONT TO SQUEEZE OUT MEASURABLE PRECIP BOTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO                
 FRIDAY...WITH PRIMARILY SNOW OVER THE NRN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA AND            
 RAIN/SNOW OVER THE SOUTH. ALSO...AS COLDER AIR SLOWLY FILTERS INTO             
 THE REGION...SHOULD START TO GET THE LAKES MORE INVOLVED BY FRIDAY.            
 BUT OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS LOOKING TO BE ON THE MINOR SIDE AT THIS              
 POINT.                                                                         
 SATURDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH OF THE REGION           
 BY EARLY SATURDAY WITH COLDER AIR ONCE AGAIN SETTLING INTO THE STATE           
 FOR THE WEEKEND. SPLIT FLOW REGIME EMERGES ACROSS THE LOWER 48                 
 STATES BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A            
 CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST            
 INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION AND LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN           
 HALF OF THE CONUS. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BROAD NRN             
 STREAM HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND WESTERN             
 GREAT LAKES SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH TEMPS RUNNING NEAR                 
 NORMAL. STILL COLD ENOUGH HOWEVER FOR SOME LIGHT LAKE SNOW SHOWERS             
 DURING THIS TIME ALTHOUGH PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT TO PINPOINT THE             
 EXACT FLOW REGIME AND LOCATIONS WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW. BY             
 LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...SRN STREAM CUTOFF SYSTEM             
 LOOKING TO LIFT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. SYSTEM           
 COULD PRODUCE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SNOW (SYSTEM AND LAKE ENHANCED)               
 ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN IF CURRENT SCENARIO PANS OUT. THEN AGAIN...              
 MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS HAVE SHOWN A GOOD AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH            
 REGARD TO LOCATION OF THE STORM TRACK AND TIMING/LOCATION OF                   
 DEEPENING WAVES RIDING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE UP THROUGH THE                
 REGION. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW...SOME OF THE                
 COLDEST AIR OF THE YEAR GETS PULLED INTO NRN MICHIGAN FOR TUESDAY              
 AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS              
 AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...WITH THE COLD AIR IN PLACE WILL             
 HAVE CONTINUING CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS.                                      
 ADAM                                                                           
 &&                                                                             
 .APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...GALE WARNING...TONIGHT THROUGH            
        THURSDAY....LMZ323-342-344-345.                                         
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                            
 416 PM EST WED JAN 10 2007                                                     
 .DISCUSSION....EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...LATEST SURFACE/RUC ANALYSIS              
 AND VIS/IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN               
 PLAINS WHOSE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BISECTS LOWER MICHIGAN.  LOW LEVEL             
 WINDS STARTING TO REFLECT THE AXIS PASSAGE WITH LIGHT LAKE EFFECT              
 SNOW SHOWERS OVER NW LOWER AND TIP OF THE MITT DIMINISHING AS THE              
 DISORGANIZED BANDS ARE TRYING TO ORIENT THEMSELVES IN THE SW-NE                
 DIRECTION.  THESE BANDS ARE ALSO FIGHTING PLENTY OF DRY AIR AS ACARS           
 SOUNDINGS FROM PLN AND TVC SHOW INVERSION HEIGHTS CONTINUING TO FALL           
 TO AROUND 860MB. AWAY FROM THE LES BANDS...SKIES HAVE TURNED PARTLY            
 TO MOSTLY SUNNY.  MEANWHILE UPSTREAM...STRONG SHORTWAVE NOW OVER               
 ALBERTA AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE IS TRUCKING EAST ALONG THE                 
 CANADIAN BORDER...HELPING TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE            
 PLAINS.  WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS RIDING OVER THE 850MB WARM FRONT            
 LOCATED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ARE STARTING TO                
 CROSS LAKE MICHIGAN...AND WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT ACROSS THE CWA               
 LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THE INTERACTION OF THIS WARM FRONT AS            
 IT MOVES NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND WEAKENING LES WILL BE THE MAIN                
 FORECAST CONCERN TONIGHT.                                                      
 TONIGHT...UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE IT TO MANITOBA (ASSOCIATED              
 SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO WESTERN ONTARIO) BY 12Z THURSDAY MORNING.              
 THIS WAVE WILL HELP INCREASE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT AND PUSH           
 A 850MB WARM FRONT TO THE NORTHEAST TO NORTHERN LOWER BY 12Z. AS IT            
 DOES SO...850MB TEMPERATURES MODERATE ALOT FROM MINUS 6-9C AT 00Z              
 OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TO 0 TO MINUS 3 BY 12Z. A SURGE OF                 
 MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS WAA...WHICH REDUCES CONDENSATION                  
 PRESSURE DEFICITS ON THE 285K AND 290K ISENTROPIC SURFACES TO LESS             
 THAN 10MB BY APPROXIMATELY 03Z. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS DIFFER                       
 OVERNIGHT...WITH THE NAM NOT NEARLY AS MOIST BELOW 800MB AS THE                
 GFS.  WITH ONSHORE FLOW OVER EASTERN UPPER FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WHILE            
 DELTA T/S REMAINING ABOVE 8C DURING THE EVENING...LIKE THE MORE MOIST          
 SCENARIO DEPICTED BY THE GFS...AND WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS ACROSS                
 EASTERN UPPER AFTER 03Z.  LOWER LEVELS LOOK TO DRY OVER NORTHERN               
 LOWER FOR PRECIP AT THIS TIME.  TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT DURING            
 THE EVENING TONIGHT BUT THEN SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH THE INCOMING           
 WARM AIR.                                                                      
 MARINE...TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINED WITH OVER-LAKE                  
 INSTABILITY AND COASTAL CONVERGENCE WILL CREATE WIND SPEEDS AT 925MB           
 TO 40-50KTS TONIGHT AND GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ALONG THE LAKE                   
 MICHIGAN SHORELINE FROM MANISTEE TO THE STRAITS.  ELSEWHERE...MIXING           
 TO 925MB REVEALS WIND GUSTS COULD POTENTIALLY REACH BETWEEN 30-35              
 KNOTS...OR JUST BELOW GALE FORCE...SO WILL INTRODUCE SMALL CRAFTS              
 EVERYWHERE ELSE.                                                               
 MPC                                                                            
 FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...COLD AIR CONTINUES TO MODERATE AND             
 RAPIDLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION EARLY ON WHILE LOW AMPLITUDE MID               
 LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN STATES...BUT NEXT CORE OF              
 COLD AIR DESCENDS INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. ONE PIECE OF ENERGY (NOW               
 NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG) FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH AN            
 ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT SLOWING MOVING THROUGH           
 AND IMPACTING THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MAIN FORECAST                
 ISSUES FOR THE NEAR TERM REVOLVE AROUND PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPE AS             
 THIS SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH.                                                    
 THURSDAY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED            
 SFC LOW FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO ONTARIO DURING THE DAY...WITH A           
 WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AND             
 TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. DECENT           
 SHOT OF WARM ADVECTION MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE BAND OF LIGHT                  
 SNOWFALL ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL               
 KEEP A CHANCE GOING IN THE FORECAST FOR THAT AREA...ALTHOUGH LOWER             
 LAYERS ARE A BIT ON THE DRY SIDE. BUT WITHOUT ANY HELP FROM THE                
 LAKES (TEMPS TOO WARM) ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT                
 SIDE. THURSDAY AFTERNOON...NORTHERN MICHIGAN WELL INTO THE WARM                
 SECTOR WITH STRONG SW WINDS CONTINUING AND AFTERNOON TEMPS WARMING             
 BACK INTO THE 30S TO AROUND 40 (WOULD BE EVEN WARMER WERE IT NOT FOR           
 THE SNOW COVER). MEANWHILE...BOTH NAM AND PARTICULARLY THE GFS                 
 DEPICT SUBSTANTIAL MOISTENING IN THE SUB 800 MB LAYER DURING THE               
 AFTERNOON (WARMER THAN -6C) AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...WHILE             
 MOISTURE ALOFT STRIPS OUT. NOT MUCH OUT THERE UPSTREAM TODAY IN                
 TERMS OF LOW CLOUDS TO HANG YOUR HAT ON...BUT CAN SEE THIS TAKING              
 SHAPE AS WARMER/MOIST AIR SURGES NORTH ACROSS THE SNOW COVER IN                
 NORTHERN MICHIGAN. REMOVED MENTION OF ANY RAIN/SNOW FROM THE                   
 FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON...BUT MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE THERE TO GET           
 SOME DRIZZLE GOING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.                 
 THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY PRESSES EAST/SE              
 THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AND SETTLE TO OUR            
 SOUTH. ALTHOUGH STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINLY REGARDING POPS                
 DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...PERHAPS ENOUGH FORCING/MOISTURE ALONG THE              
 FRONT TO SQUEEZE OUT MEASURABLE PRECIP BOTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO                
 FRIDAY...WITH PRIMARILY SNOW OVER THE NRN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA AND            
 RAIN/SNOW OVER THE SOUTH. ALSO...AS COLDER AIR SLOWLY FILTERS INTO             
 THE REGION...SHOULD START TO GET THE LAKES MORE INVOLVED BY FRIDAY.            
 BUT OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS LOOKING TO BE ON THE MINOR SIDE AT THIS              
 POINT.                                                                         
 SATURDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH OF THE REGION           
 BY EARLY SATURDAY WITH COLDER AIR ONCE AGAIN SETTLING INTO THE STATE           
 FOR THE WEEKEND. SPLIT FLOW REGIME EMERGES ACROSS THE LOWER 48                 
 STATES BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A            
 CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST            
 INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION AND LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN           
 HALF OF THE CONUS. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BROAD NRN             
 STREAM HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND WESTERN             
 GREAT LAKES SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH TEMPS RUNNING NEAR                 
 NORMAL. STILL COLD ENOUGH HOWEVER FOR SOME LIGHT LAKE SNOW SHOWERS             
 DURING THIS TIME ALTHOUGH PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT TO PINPOINT THE             
 EXACT FLOW REGIME AND LOCATIONS WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW. BY             
 LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...SRN STREAM CUTOFF SYSTEM             
 LOOKING TO LIFT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. SYSTEM           
 COULD PRODUCE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SNOW (SYSTEM AND LAKE ENHANCED)               
 ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN IF CURRENT SCENARIO PANS OUT. THEN AGAIN...              
 MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS HAVE SHOWN A GOOD AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH            
 REGARD TO LOCATION OF THE STORM TRACK AND TIMING/LOCATION OF                   
 DEEPENING WAVES RIDING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE UP THROUGH THE                
 REGION. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW...SOME OF THE                
 COLDEST AIR OF THE YEAR GETS PULLED INTO NRN MICHIGAN FOR TUESDAY              
 AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS              
 AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...WITH THE COLD AIR IN PLACE WILL             
 HAVE CONTINUING CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS.                                      
 ADAM                                                                           
 &&                                                                             
 .APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...GALE WARNING...TONIGHT THROUGH            
        THURSDAY....LMZ323-342-344-345.                                         
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                          
 1128 AM EST WED JAN 10 2007                                                    
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 LES IS WINDING DOWN STEADILY THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVES             
 ACROSS THE AREA. RIDGE CURRENTLY RUNS FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TO CNTRL              
 LAKE SUPERIOR. UPSTREAM...VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE HEADING INTO SRN                  
 SASKATCHEWAN IS LEADING TO STRONG WAA PATTERN OVER THE NRN PLAINS.             
 12Z SOUNDING AT KBIS SHOWED 850MB TEMP OF 7C WITH SW WIND AT 35KT              
 WHILE KINL/CYQD HAD 850MB TEMPS OF -11/-19C RESPECTIVELY.                      
 WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGIME HAS RESULTED IN MID CLOUD DECK FROM THE           
 DAKOTAS ACROSS NRN MN. RADARS SHOW RETURNS FROM CLOUD DECK...BUT               
 ONLY A FEW OBS HAVE SHOWN ANY SNOW IN NRN MN AS DRY AIRMASS PER 12Z            
 KINL SOUNDING HAS KEPT MUCH OF THE SNOW FROM REACHING THE GROUND.              
 LAST OF THE LES SHOULD END OVER THE FAR NE FCST AREA DURING THE NEXT           
 FEW HRS AS WINDS BACK OFFSHORE WITH PASSAGE OF RIDGE AXIS. STRONG              
 WAA REGIME WILL THEN BEGIN TO SPREAD E INTO WRN UPPER MI DURING THE            
 AFTN...BUT EXPECT DRY AIR TO DELAY ONSET OF -SN SIGNIFICANTLY.                 
 RECENT TAMDAR SOUNDING FROM KSAW SHOWED DWPT DEPRESSIONS FROM 10 TO            
 25C BTWN 900 AND 700MB. INHERITED FCST LOOKED FINE JUST BRINGING CHC           
 -SN TO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE AFTN.                                      
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... ISSUED AT 335 AM EST                                       
 00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW TROF OVER ERN                
 NAMERICA DOWNSTREAM OF UPR RDG BLDG INTO THE NRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE             
 OF POTENT SHRTWV CRASHING INTO THE PAC NW (12Z-24Z H3 HGT FALL UP TO           
 250M IN NW WA STATE). CWA EARLY THIS MRNG REMAINS DOMINATED BY COLD            
 AND GUSTY LLVL NW FLOW BTWN SFC HI PRES RDG APRCHG THE MS RIVER                
 VALLEY AND DEEP LO PRES OVER QUEBEC. H85 TEMPS UPSTREAM STILL AS LO            
 AS -21C AT YPL. ALTHOUGH LLVLS AT THIS SITE ARE RELATIVELY                     
 MOIST...ABSOLUTE MSTR IS LIMITED WITH SFC DWPTS BLO 0F IN MN AND               
 ONTARIO NW OF LK SUP. 00Z INL SDNG IS QUITE A BIT DRIER THAN THE YPL           
 SDNG CLOSER TO RDG AXIS...AND SKIES ARE MOCLR NOW IN THE MN                    
 ARROWHEAD. DESPITE THE VIGOROUS CAD OVER THE UPR LKS...THE                     
 COMBINATION OF THIS DRY AIR AND LO INVRN ARND H9 AS SHOWN ON THE 00Z           
 INL/YPL RAOBS AS WELL AS TAMDAR SDNGS AT DLH/YQT HAVE NEGATIVELY               
 IMPACTED LES AMTS EVEN OVER THE ERN ZNS WHERE LONGER FETCH ACRS THE            
 LK HAS ALLOWED MORE LLVL MOISTENING AND DEEPER MIXED LYR UP TO H8 AS           
 SHOWN ON THE 00Z TAMDAR SDNG FM SAW. NO MORE THAN 3-4 INCHES OF SN             
 HAS FALLEN THRU 04Z. FARTHER UPSTREAM...MID/HI CLD IN WAD AHEAD OF             
 SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE PAC NW HAS SPREAD THRU THE UPR RDG INTO NW              
 MN. 00Z BIS SDNG IS QUITE DRY BLO H8...SO LEADING EDGE OF LGT SN               
 TRAILS WELL BEHIND IN SE SASKATCHEWAN AT 04Z.                                  
 MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE ARND LES TRENDS. FOCUS            
 THEN SHIFTS TO TIMING/IMPACT OF SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO THE PAC NW              
 WITH CHC OF -SN AS EARLY AS THIS AFTN.                                         
 FOR TDAY...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS H5 HGT RISES UP TO 120M AS RDG             
 IN THE PLAINS CONTINUES TO BLD EWD. SFC RDG AXIS PROGGED TO REACH NR           
 IWD AT 12Z BEFORE PUSHING E OF ANJ BY 00Z THU. AS THE RDG AXIS/LOWER           
 INVRN HGT APRCH FM THE W...EXPECT ONGOING LES TO END AND WINDS TO              
 DIMINISH W-E. HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE LES ADVY (WITHOUT THE BLSN)             
 OVER THE E A FEW HRS TO ACCOUNT FOR FVRBL CONDITIONS FOR MORE SHSN             
 INTO MID MRNG. OTRW...BRIEF CLRG WL GIVE WAY TO INCRSG HI/MID CLD              
 WITH ONSET OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AS SHOWN ON THE 280-300K SFCS. SINCE           
 LLVLS ON THE BIS SDNG ARE SO DRY AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT APPEARS TO BE           
 THE ONLY FORCING MECHANISM FOR UPWARD MOTION WITH DPVA/UPR DVGC                
 ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO THE PAC NW REMAINING TO THE             
 NW THRU 00Z (SHRTWV ITSELF FCST TO REACH SE SASKATCHEWAN AT 00Z)...            
 HAVE OPTED TO TAKE OUT THE WAD POPS TDAY OVER THE ENTIRE CWA PER               
 VARIOUS MOS FCSTS. RESOLVE STRENGTHENED BECAUSE ISENTROPIC LIFT                
 APPEARS TO BE GOING MORE TOWARD HORIZONTAL TEMP ADVCTN VS UVV AS               
 PRES FCST TO RISE STEADILY ON THE ISENTROPIC SFCS IN QUESTION (I.E.            
 STEADY WARMING)...NOT SURPRISING CONSIDERING TRACK OF SHRTWV WELL TO           
 THE NW. OTRW...VARIOUS MOS FCST HI TEMPS CONSISTENT WITH READINGS              
 EXPECTED FM EXPLICIT GFS FCST SDNGS.                                           
 TNGT...SHRTWV OVER SRN CANADA FCST TO MOVE INTO NW ONTARIO BY 12Z              
 THU. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY WITH REGARD TO THE POSITION OF SFC LO           
 BY 12Z...WITH NAM FARTHEST TO THE NW JUST E OF LK WINNIPEG AND UKMET           
 FARTHEST TO THE S NR DLH. 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF LOOK TO BE A RSNBL                 
 COMPROMISE BTWN THESE SOLNS WITH SFC LO JUST N OF INL. GFS SHOWS               
 BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AS WELL AS DPVA/SHARPER H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC/UPR           
 DVGC TO THE N. CONSIDERING THE PLACEMENT OF THESE BETTER DYNAMICS              
 AND LINGERING DRY AIR...HAVE OPTED TO RESTRICT CHC POPS TO OVER THE            
 NRN TIER AND DOWNWIND OF LK MI WHERE STRONG SLY FLOW WL BE ABLE TO             
 PICK UP SOME MSTR IN LONG FETCH OVER LK. IN FACT...GFS FCST SDNG FOR           
 ERY AT 06Z SHOWS RELATIVELY DEEP MSTR...SO HIEST CHC POPS IN THIS              
 LOCATION. OTRW...EXPECT RELATIVELY LTL DIURNAL VARIATION OF TEMP               
 WITH STRG SLY FLOW...GFS SHOWS H925 WINDS UP TO 35-40 KTS. WL ISSUE            
 GALE WRNG FOR LK SUP AS THIS LLJ MOVES OVHD TO THE S OF AREA OF                
 SHARP PRES FALLS MOVING ACRS ONTARIO.                                          
 ON THU...SHRTWV/SFC LO FCST TO SHEAR TO THE ENE...DRAGGING SFC COLD            
 FNT TO THE E AND SCNTRL ZNS BY LATE IN THE DAY. ALTHOUGH SOME LLVL             
 MSTR REMAINS...DRYING ALF IN JET SURGE REGION UNDER H85-5 QVECTOR              
 DVGC SUGS ANY PCPN WL BE ON THE LGT SIDE. TEMPTED TO RESTRICT POPS             
 TO JUST THE N AND E DURING THE MRNG BEFORE DEEPER MSTR EXITS... BUT            
 00Z GFS HINTS SOME UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF JET PASSING TO THE NE WL CAUSE           
 AN AXIS OF HIER H7 RH OVER THE FNT LATER IN THE DAY OVER THE SCNTRL            
 AND E. SINCE SEVERAL OTHER OPS MODELS ARE SLOWER PUSHING THE FNT               
 THROUGH UNDER SW FLOW ALF PARALLEL TO SFC BNDRY...WL RETAIN AT LEAST           
 A 20 POP OVER THE ENTIRE FA. WL ALSO INCLUDE MIX WITH RA OVER THE              
 SCNTRL AS SFC TEMPS WL RISE WELL ABV 32 AND FCST SNDGS HINT AT                 
 SUFFICIENT DEPTH OF ABV FRZG NR SFC LYR TO JUSTIFY LIQUID PCPN. WITH           
 RELATIVELY WARM START...THU LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK            
 EVEN THOUGH CONSIDERABLE CLD COVER WL RESTRICT DIURNAL TEMP RISE.              
 COLDER AIR FCST TO GRDLY FILTER BACK INTO UPR MI THU NGT/FRI AS UPR            
 FLOW GRDLY VEERS FM SW TO MORE W WITH TIME. BUT GFS/UKMET HINT THAT            
 RRQ OF UPR JET IN CONFLUENCE ZN BTWN NRN AND SRN BRANCHES WL REMAIN            
 OVER THE FA WITH A POCKET OF HIER H7 RH NEAR FOCUSED H8-7 FGEN WELL            
 TO THE N OF RELATIVELY SHALLOW ARCTIC INTRUSION. ALTHOUGH NLY FLOW             
 OF ARCTIC AIR APPEARS TO BE RATHER DRY...WL MAINTAIN SOME CHC POPS             
 DURING THIS TIME FOR EITHER THE FGEN FORCING OR LES POTENTIAL.                 
 CONSIDERING THE FAIRLY HI STABILITY AND SHARP H8-7 FGEN...HAVE                 
 TRENDED DOWN ON FCST TEMPS THU NGT/FRI PER GFS FCST SDNGS AND                  
 GFS/ETA MOS GUIDANCE.                                                          
 MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE LATER PDS AS TO INTERACTION BTWN NRN           
 BRANCH AND SRN BRANCH CLOSED LO OVER THE DESERT SW. LATEST GUIDANCE            
 HAS TRENDED A BIT SLOWER WITH EJECTION OF THIS FEATURE...SO ADDED LO           
 CHC POPS OVER THE SCNTRL ZNS ON SUN NGT/MON TO MATCH SURROUNDING               
 OFFICES.                                                                       
 COORDINATED WITH APX/GRB/DLH.                                                  
 &&                                                                             
 .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
  GALE WARNING E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR.                                         
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 ROLFSON (UPDATE)                                                               
 KC (PREV DISCUSSION)                                                           
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                            
 1110 AM EST WED JAN 10 2007                                                    
 .UPDATE...LATEST SURFACE/RUC ANALYSIS AND VIS/IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY              
 SHOW HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WHOSE RIDGE             
 AXIS RUNS FROM WESTERN KENTUCKY ACROSS WESTERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND               
 CENTRAL U.P./LAKE SUPERIOR.  LAKE EFFECT BANDS ARE STARTING TO SHOW            
 SIGNS OF BACKING PER RADAR TRENDS OVER THE PAST HOUR...AS THE RIDGE            
 AXIS APPROACHES.  AFTER A VERY BRIEF FLARE UP THIS MORNING...SNOW              
 INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN GENERALLY ON THE WANE WITH VISIBILITIES MOSTLY           
 GREATER THAN 2SM WITH ONLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF DBZ GREATER THAN 24 ON           
 RADAR.  12Z APX SOUNDING SHOW INVERSION HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO                    
 FALL...LOWERING TO ABOUT 830MB...DOWN FROM 750MB 12 HOURS AGO.                 
 850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE COLD AT -18C...BUT UPSTREAM SOUNDING FROM           
 GREEN BAY SHOWS WARM ADVECTION IS STARTING TO TAKE HOLD (850MB TEMPS           
 UP TO -12C) AND WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS                  
 WISCONSIN. LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST                  
 CONCERN FOR THE REST OF TODAY.                                                 
 SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON CAUSING           
 THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO CONTINUE TO BACK.  THEREFORE...EXPECT THE               
 LAKE EFFECT BAND ORIENTATION TO CONTINUE ITS RECENT TREND TO                   
 WESTERLY TO MORE SOUTHWEST BY THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON.  WITH THE           
 850MB RIDGE AXIS MOVING CLOSER AS WELL...SUBSIDENCE WILL CAUSE                 
 INVERSION HEIGHTS TO LOWER FURTHER...TO AROUND 900MB BY 00Z.                   
 ADDITIONALLY...DELTA T/S WILL DECREASE AS THE DAY WEARS                        
 ON...DROPPING TO AROUND 13C OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY 00Z.                
 THEREFORE...WITH INCREASINGLY HOSTILE LAKE EFFECT                              
 CONDITIONS...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DIMINISH AS THE DAY WEARS                  
 ON...BUT WILL STILL GO NUMEROUS FOR NORTHWEST LOWER THROUGH                    
 MID-AFTERNOON...THEN SCATTERED FOR LATE AFTERNOON RIGHT ALONG THE              
 LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AS 1000-850MB WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST.             
 SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR...MAYBE A HALF INCH AROUND                    
 MANCELONA.  WILL DROP THE LES SNOW WARNING FOR CHIPPEWA COUNTY AS              
 SNOW HAS DIMINISHED ENOUGH TO ONLY ALLOW MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.  AREAS           
 TO THE EAST OF I-75 WILL LIKELY SEE SKIES CLEAR OUT SOMEWHAT WITH              
 THE DIMINISHING SNOW SHOWERS AND WILL KEEP PARTLY CLOUD SKIES HERE.            
 DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CLEARING ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AND              
 EASTERN UPPER WHERE ONSHORE FLOW...AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE           
 FROM WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP SKIES ON THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SIDE.             
 MARINE...WINDS HAVE STEADILY DECREASED THROUGH THE MORNING...WELL              
 BELOW GALE FORCE OVER THE COASTAL CONVERGENT REGIME OF NORTHEAST               
 LOWER.  WILL THEREFORE DROP THE GALE WARNINGS FROM THE STRAITS TO              
 STURGEON POINT...BUT KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN THEIR OVER                 
 WHITEFISH POINT AND THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE SINCE WINDS IN THE MIX            
 LAYER WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED 25 KNOTS.                                        
 ZONES OUT SHORTLY.                                                             
 MPC                                                                            
 PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 311 AM EST WED JAN 10 2007                     
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW (LES) CONTINUES. NW FLOW ON SUPERIOR/ EASTERN UPPER           
 MI...WNW FLOW ON LK MI/NORTHERN LOWER. HIGH PRESSURE IN AR WAS                 
 EXTENDING A RIDGE NORTHWARD INTO MN. THIS RIDGE WILL MAKE ITSELF               
 FELT 1ST IN A LOW-LEVEL DRYING TREND FROM THE WEST THIS                        
 MORNING...AND THIS AFTERNOON IN BACKING OF THE 1000-850MB WIND                 
 HERALDING THE ONSET OF WARM ADVECTION. THUS...IN THE NEAR TERM...THE           
 MAIN ISSUE IS ONGOING LES. AFTER THAT (LATE TONIGHT ONWARD)...MAIN             
 CONCERN IS HOW ENERGY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL INTERACT              
 WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION.                                                    
 MODELS...THE GFS IS FASTER AND LESS AMPLIFIED WITH A FILLING UPPER             
 LOW THAT DEGENERATES INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT REACHES NORTHERN                  
 ONTARIO THURSDAY. QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY HERE...WITH THE                   
 CANADIAN FAVORING THE GFS...THE NGM THE NAM...AND THE NOGAPS OFF ON            
 ITS OWN SOMEWHERE. BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF SREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS              
 RESEMBLE THE GFS...AND THUS WILL LEAN THE FORECAST THAT WAY.                   
 TODAY...LES SHOULD DWINDLE THRU THE DAY. 850-700MB RH LEVELS...                
 STARTING THE MORNING AT 60-70 PERCENT...WILL LOWER TO 40-50 PERCENT            
 BY MIDDAY...AND 30 PERCENT OR LESS BY EVENING. DELTA T/S WILL HOLD             
 NEAR 20 IN THE MORNING...THEN LOWER QUICKLY INTO THE MID TEENS. THE            
 MOST SIGNIFICANT DECREASE WILL BE DURING THE PM HOURS...AS LES                 
 SHOULD BE ABLE TO SURVIVE THE INITIAL BIT OF DRYING...ESPECIALLY               
 GIVEN THE CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY PRESENT.                                    
 THE CURRENT LES IN NORTHERN LOWER IS DISORGANIZED...THOUGH A FEW               
 VIGOROUS SNOW SHOWERS ARE SEEN FROM TIME TO TIME. IT IS DIFFICULT TO           
 SEE HEADLINE-CRITERIA ACCUMS GIVEN POOR ORGANIZATION NOW AND                   
 GRADUALLY MORE HOSTILE LES CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY. THUS WILL                
 EXPIRE HEADLINES IN NORTHERN LOWER MI ON SCHEDULE...WITH LOCAL 1-2             
 INCH ACCUMS IN WNW FLOW SNOWBELTS. POPS WILL BE HIGH THRU EARLY TO             
 MID AFTERNOON...BUT DECREASE LATE AS BACKING WINDS/WARMING                     
 TEMPS/DRYING REALLY KICKS IN. BLOWING/DRIFTING IS A MARGINAL CONCERN           
 NOW...BUT WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS EXPECTED TO SLACKEN             
 FURTHER BY DAWN...WILL NOT MENTION ANY OF THAT FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS.          
 IN EASTERN UPPER...AS WE OFTEN SEE THE EASTERNMOST BAND IS GETTING             
 SERIOUSLY ENHANCED BY LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE FROM ONTARIO. MONTREAL           
 RIVER RADAR HAS 30-40DBZ RETURNS WITH THIS BAND. THE BAND WAS SLOWLY           
 GETTING PUSHED WESTWARD BY THE DRAINAGE FLOW EARLY ON. HOWEVER...THE           
 COMBINATION OF STRONGISH NW FLOW AND MUCH WEAKER N DRAINAGE WINDS              
 HAVE STOPPED THAT PROCESS. THE BAND STALLED OUT OVER BRIMLEY AND BAY           
 MILLS...WHICH PICKED UP THE BETTER PART OF 8 INCHES OF SNOW BETWEEN            
 MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM. HAVE ALREADY UPGRADED CHIP TO AN LES WARNING...             
 WHICH IS IN EFFECT THRU NOON. LOCAL ACCUMS COULD EASILY REACH OR               
 EXCEED A FOOT BEFORE BAND WEAKENS WITH THE INCOMING DRIER AIRMASS              
 AFTER DAWN.                                                                    
 TONIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE IS ALREADY HEADING EAST OF THE AREA...WITH             
 STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW RAPIDLY GETTING ESTABLISHED IN ITS WAKE. 850MB           
 TEMPS WILL ROCKET UPWARD INTO THE 0 TO -5C RANGE. BOTH THE NAM AND             
 GFS DRAPE A WARM FRONT THRU THE STRAITS REGION...AHEAD OF AN                   
 OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW ENTERING FAR WESTERN ONTARIO LATE. ASCENT NORTH           
 OF THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE ABLE TO WRING OUT SOME SNOWFLAKES IN EASTERN           
 UPPER MI OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF THE SLIGHTLY COOLER GFS IS NEARER           
 THE TRUTH (850MB TEMPS NEAR -6C) WHICH WOULD KEEP LAKE MI MARGINALLY           
 IN PLAY FOR SOME ENHANCEMENT. STILL...BOTH THE GFS AND NAM HAVE A              
 MOISTURE DISCONNECT...WITH MOIST MID LEVELS AND DRY LOW LEVELS BY              
 MIDNIGHT...AND THE REVERSE BY MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF               
 LIGHT SNOW THRU THE NIGHT...DYING LES EARLY IN SOUTH FLOW...AND                
 SYNOPTIC/MARGINALLY ENHANCED LATE. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY                 
 NORTH...PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTH. MIN TEMPS WILL BE EARLY IN THE                    
 EVENING...WITH READINGS RISING SHARPLY (AROUND 10F IN SPOTS) DURING            
 THE NIGHT.                                                                     
 THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST NORTH OF SUPERIOR DURING THE               
 DAY...NEARING QUEBEC BY EVENING. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH           
 EASTERN UPPER MI FROM THE NW LATE. EASTERN UPPER MI...WHERE THE                
 MOISTURE REMAINS DEEPER BIT STILL WITH SOME DRY AIR IN THE MID                 
 LEVELS...WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SPOTTY SNOW THRU THE DAY (MAY HAVE TO           
 ADD SOME DRIZZLE IN LATER FORECASTS IF MID LEVEL DRYING IS MORE                
 PRONOUNCED). IN NORTHERN LOWER MI...THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE MOISTENING           
 OF THE SUB-800MB LAYER...WHICH LATE IN THE DAY WILL REACH DOWN TO              
 THE SURFACE. WITH MOISTURE ONLY EXTENDING TO -5C OR SO...SHEAR                 
 (VEERING) WITHIN THE MOIST LAYER...AND THE GFS PORTRAYING A NOSE OF            
 HIGHER MOISTURE JUST ABOVE THE 825MB INVERSION...THE SETUP APPEARS             
 REASONABLE FOR DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN. TEMPS WILL RETURN                   
 (BRIEFLY) TO THE BALMY CONDITIONS OF THE LAST MONTH...WITH HIGHS               
 FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO LOWER 40S SOUTH.                                     
 THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...WE CAN SAY WITH SOME CONFIDENCE THAT THE               
 COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY OOZE SOUTH THRU THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO            
 EARLY FRIDAY...THEN SETTLE TO OUR SOUTH. WE CAN ALSO SAY THAT A WAVE           
 (MAYBE TWO) WILL LIFT NE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THAT/S AS CERTAIN AS             
 WE CAN GET AT THIS POINT. TIMING IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...THE FASTER              
 GFS IS CONSEQUENTIALLY MUCH...MUCH MORE MOIST THAN THE NAM. WILL               
 MAINTAIN AN UNCERTAIN CHANCE POP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...THROUGH            
 THE BEST CHANCE WILL PROBABLY BE IN THE SOUTH LATER ON FRIDAY.                 
 THERMAL PROFILES FROM SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SNOW FOR MOST OF THE                   
 FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...SINCE IT/S UNCERTAIN WHEN THE MID LEVELS              
 WILL MOISTEN...DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN A DECENT POSSIBILITY IN MUCH OF             
 NORTHERN LOWER INTO EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT AT LEAST. WILL KEEP THE               
 FORECAST SIMPLE...AND JUST BRING THE RAIN/SNOW MIX POTENTIAL                   
 SOMEWHAT FURTHER NORTH INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI THU NIGHT/FRIDAY.                
 NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO LATER PERIODS. CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY WITH            
 WHAT SORT OF WAVE WILL EJECT ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. LOOKS               
 LIKE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE OUR COLDEST WEATHER SO FAR THIS              
 WINTER.                                                                        
 ZOLTOWSKI                                                                      
 &&                                                                             
 .APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                          
 335 AM EST WED JAN 10 2007                                                     
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW TROF OVER ERN                
 NAMERICA DOWNSTREAM OF UPR RDG BLDG INTO THE NRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE             
 OF POTENT SHRTWV CRASHING INTO THE PAC NW (12Z-24Z H3 HGT FALL UP TO           
 250M IN NW WA STATE). CWA EARLY THIS MRNG REMAINS DOMINATED BY COLD            
 AND GUSTY LLVL NW FLOW BTWN SFC HI PRES RDG APRCHG THE MS RIVER                
 VALLEY AND DEEP LO PRES OVER QUEBEC. H85 TEMPS UPSTREAM STILL AS LO            
 AS -21C AT YPL. ALTHOUGH LLVLS AT THIS SITE ARE RELATIVELY                     
 MOIST...ABSOLUTE MSTR IS LIMITED WITH SFC DWPTS BLO 0F IN MN AND               
 ONTARIO NW OF LK SUP. 00Z INL SDNG IS QUITE A BIT DRIER THAN THE YPL           
 SDNG CLOSER TO RDG AXIS...AND SKIES ARE MOCLR NOW IN THE MN                    
 ARROWHEAD. DESPITE THE VIGOROUS CAD OVER THE UPR LKS...THE                     
 COMBINATION OF THIS DRY AIR AND LO INVRN ARND H9 AS SHOWN ON THE 00Z           
 INL/YPL RAOBS AS WELL AS TAMDAR SDNGS AT DLH/YQT HAVE NEGATIVELY               
 IMPACTED LES AMTS EVEN OVER THE ERN ZNS WHERE LONGER FETCH ACRS THE            
 LK HAS ALLOWED MORE LLVL MOISTENING AND DEEPER MIXED LYR UP TO H8 AS           
 SHOWN ON THE 00Z TAMDAR SDNG FM SAW. NO MORE THAN 3-4 INCHES OF SN             
 HAS FALLEN THRU 04Z. FARTHER UPSTREAM...MID/HI CLD IN WAD AHEAD OF             
 SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE PAC NW HAS SPREAD THRU THE UPR RDG INTO NW              
 MN. 00Z BIS SDNG IS QUITE DRY BLO H8...SO LEADING EDGE OF LGT SN               
 TRAILS WELL BEHIND IN SE SASKATCHEWAN AT 04Z.                                  
 MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE ARND LES TRENDS. FOCUS            
 THEN SHIFTS TO TIMING/IMPACT OF SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO THE PAC NW              
 WITH CHC OF -SN AS EARLY AS THIS AFTN.                                         
 FOR TDAY...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS H5 HGT RISES UP TO 120M AS RDG             
 IN THE PLAINS CONTINUES TO BLD EWD. SFC RDG AXIS PROGGED TO REACH NR           
 IWD AT 12Z BEFORE PUSHING E OF ANJ BY 00Z THU. AS THE RDG AXIS/LOWER           
 INVRN HGT APRCH FM THE W...EXPECT ONGOING LES TO END AND WINDS TO              
 DIMINISH W-E. HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE LES ADVY (WITHOUT THE BLSN)             
 OVER THE E A FEW HRS TO ACCOUNT FOR FVRBL CONDITIONS FOR MORE SHSN             
 INTO MID MRNG. OTRW...BRIEF CLRG WL GIVE WAY TO INCRSG HI/MID CLD              
 WITH ONSET OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AS SHOWN ON THE 280-300K SFCS. SINCE           
 LLVLS ON THE BIS SDNG ARE SO DRY AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT APPEARS TO BE           
 THE ONLY FORCING MECHANISM FOR UPWARD MOTION WITH DPVA/UPR DVGC                
 ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO THE PAC NW REMAINING TO THE             
 NW THRU 00Z (SHRTWV ITSELF FCST TO REACH SE SASKATCHEWAN AT 00Z)...            
 HAVE OPTED TO TAKE OUT THE WAD POPS TDAY OVER THE ENTIRE CWA PER               
 VARIOUS MOS FCSTS. RESOLVE STRENGTHENED BECAUSE ISENTROPIC LIFT                
 APPEARS TO BE GOING MORE TOWARD HORIZONTAL TEMP ADVCTN VS UVV AS               
 PRES FCST TO RISE STEADILY ON THE ISENTROPIC SFCS IN QUESTION (I.E.            
 STEADY WARMING)...NOT SURPRISING CONSIDERING TRACK OF SHRTWV WELL TO           
 THE NW. OTRW...VARIOUS MOS FCST HI TEMPS CONSISTENT WITH READINGS              
 EXPECTED FM EXPLICIT GFS FCST SDNGS.                                           
 TNGT...SHRTWV OVER SRN CANADA FCST TO MOVE INTO NW ONTARIO BY 12Z              
 THU. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY WITH REGARD TO THE POSITION OF SFC LO           
 BY 12Z...WITH NAM FARTHEST TO THE NW JUST E OF LK WINNIPEG AND UKMET           
 FARTHEST TO THE S NR DLH. 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF LOOK TO BE A RSNBL                 
 COMPROMISE BTWN THESE SOLNS WITH SFC LO JUST N OF INL. GFS SHOWS               
 BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AS WELL AS DPVA/SHARPER H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC/UPR           
 DVGC TO THE N. CONSIDERING THE PLACEMENT OF THESE BETTER DYNAMICS              
 AND LINGERING DRY AIR...HAVE OPTED TO RESTRICT CHC POPS TO OVER THE            
 NRN TIER AND DOWNWIND OF LK MI WHERE STRONG SLY FLOW WL BE ABLE TO             
 PICK UP SOME MSTR IN LONG FETCH OVER LK. IN FACT...GFS FCST SDNG FOR           
 ERY AT 06Z SHOWS RELATIVELY DEEP MSTR...SO HIEST CHC POPS IN THIS              
 LOCATION. OTRW...EXPECT RELATIVELY LTL DIURNAL VARIATION OF TEMP               
 WITH STRG SLY FLOW...GFS SHOWS H925 WINDS UP TO 35-40 KTS. WL ISSUE            
 GALE WRNG FOR LK SUP AS THIS LLJ MOVES OVHD TO THE S OF AREA OF                
 SHARP PRES FALLS MOVING ACRS ONTARIO.                                          
 ON THU...SHRTWV/SFC LO FCST TO SHEAR TO THE ENE...DRAGGING SFC COLD            
 FNT TO THE E AND SCNTRL ZNS BY LATE IN THE DAY. ALTHOUGH SOME LLVL             
 MSTR REMAINS...DRYING ALF IN JET SURGE REGION UNDER H85-5 QVECTOR              
 DVGC SUGS ANY PCPN WL BE ON THE LGT SIDE. TEMPTED TO RESTRICT POPS             
 TO JUST THE N AND E DURING THE MRNG BEFORE DEEPER MSTR EXITS... BUT            
 00Z GFS HINTS SOME UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF JET PASSING TO THE NE WL CAUSE           
 AN AXIS OF HIER H7 RH OVER THE FNT LATER IN THE DAY OVER THE SCNTRL            
 AND E. SINCE SEVERAL OTHER OPS MODELS ARE SLOWER PUSHING THE FNT               
 THROUGH UNDER SW FLOW ALF PARALLEL TO SFC BNDRY...WL RETAIN AT LEAST           
 A 20 POP OVER THE ENTIRE FA. WL ALSO INCLUDE MIX WITH RA OVER THE              
 SCNTRL AS SFC TEMPS WL RISE WELL ABV 32 AND FCST SNDGS HINT AT                 
 SUFFICIENT DEPTH OF ABV FRZG NR SFC LYR TO JUSTIFY LIQUID PCPN. WITH           
 RELATIVELY WARM START...THU LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK            
 EVEN THOUGH CONSIDERABLE CLD COVER WL RESTRICT DIURNAL TEMP RISE.              
 COLDER AIR FCST TO GRDLY FILTER BACK INTO UPR MI THU NGT/FRI AS UPR            
 FLOW GRDLY VEERS FM SW TO MORE W WITH TIME. BUT GFS/UKMET HINT THAT            
 RRQ OF UPR JET IN CONFLUENCE ZN BTWN NRN AND SRN BRANCHES WL REMAIN            
 OVER THE FA WITH A POCKET OF HIER H7 RH NEAR FOCUSED H8-7 FGEN WELL            
 TO THE N OF RELATIVELY SHALLOW ARCTIC INTRUSION. ALTHOUGH NLY FLOW             
 OF ARCTIC AIR APPEARS TO BE RATHER DRY...WL MAINTAIN SOME CHC POPS             
 DURING THIS TIME FOR EITHER THE FGEN FORCING OR LES POTENTIAL.                 
 CONSIDERING THE FAIRLY HI STABILITY AND SHARP H8-7 FGEN...HAVE                 
 TRENDED DOWN ON FCST TEMPS THU NGT/FRI PER GFS FCST SDNGS AND                  
 GFS/ETA MOS GUIDANCE.                                                          
 MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE LATER PDS AS TO INTERACTION BTWN NRN           
 BRANCH AND SRN BRANCH CLOSED LO OVER THE DESERT SW. LATEST GUIDANCE            
 HAS TRENDED A BIT SLOWER WITH EJECTION OF THIS FEATURE...SO ADDED LO           
 CHC POPS OVER THE SCNTRL ZNS ON SUN NGT/MON TO MATCH SURROUNDING               
 OFFICES.                                                                       
 COORDINATED WITH APX/GRB/DLH.                                                  
 &&                                                                             
 .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVY UNTIL 15Z WED MIZ006-007-085.                           
  GALE WRNG E 1/2 LK SUP.                                                       
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 KC                                                                             
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                             
 747 PM CST THU JAN 11 2007                                                     
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 UPDATED WIND CHILL ADVISORY TO SPREAD INTO A COUPLE MORE COUNTIES              
 OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING QUICKLY AS SHALLOW ARCTIC                 
 AIRMASS SURGES TO THE SOUTH/EAST ALONG AND WEST OF THE MINNESOTA               
 RIVER VALLEY. LIGHT SNOW CLIPPING THE FAR NORTHERN CWA...WITH A                
 DUSTING TO NEAR AN INCH POSSIBLE AS WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES/RIDES                
 SOUTHWEST/NORTHEAST ORIENTED 25H JET MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MN.                
 ALONG WITH THIS FORCING...00Z RUC INDICATING BAND OF 600 MB FULL               
 WIND FRONTOGENESIS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CWA THROUGH ABOUT 06Z AS             
 WELL. UPPED THE POPS THIS REGION TO LIKELY AND ADDED LESS THAN 1               
 INCH ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. APPEARS BEST CHANCE NORTH OF             
 A LINE FROM NEAR KAXN-KLXL-KJMR.                                               
 $$                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 PM CST THU JAN 11 2007/                        
 UPDATE...ADDED THE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION.                                         
 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CST THU JAN 11 2007/                         
 DISCUSSION...                                                                  
 COLD AIR POURING IN THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH HAS SURE BEEN SCARCE                
 THIS SEASON. CURRENT SURFACE TEMPS UPSTREAM ARE COLDER THAN SHORT              
 TERM MODEL TRENDS BUT LATEST RUC HAS BETTER HANDLE. MIN TEMPS                  
 SHOULD BE BELOW ZERO IN THE FAR NORTHWEST OR WEST COUNTIES. WIND               
 CHILL VALUES WILL BE CLOSE TO CRITERIA...MAINLY LATE TONIGHT AND               
 FRIDAY MORNING. WITH ABRUPT CHANGE...WILL GO AHEAD WITH AN ADVISORY            
 FOR A FEW COUNTIES. WEAK WAVE STREAKING ENE ACROSS N CENTRAL SD                
 WILL CAUSE SOME LIGHT SNOW IN FAR N CWA MAINLY THIS EVENING.                   
 OTHERWISE KIND OF IN A HOLDING PATTERN UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. GFS               
 ENSEMBLE POPS OF LESS THAN 0.10 INCH KEEPING BEST CHANCES GENERALLY            
 SOUTH OF AREA UNTIL SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS IS ABOUT WHAT              
 WE CURRENTLY HAVE IN OUR GRIDS. ECMWF SHOWING A HINT  OF A WEAK                
 WAVE LIFTING OUT AHEAD OF SYSTEM LIFTING OUT ON SUNDAY WILL KEEP               
 THE SMALL CHANCE SATURDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN A SPLIT FLOW SITUATION             
 WHICH HAS BEEN THE CASE MOST OF THE FALL AND EARLY WINTER..SO                  
 EXPECT A FAIRLY SHARP CUT OFF IN PRECIP AGAIN. LOOKS LIKE A COUPLE             
 OF COLD NIGHTS AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH..WITH MORE                      
 WIDESPREAD SUB ZERO MIN TEMPS. FAIRLY DRY NW FLOW SO SLIM CHANCE               
 OF PRECIP...THERE IS A HINT OF A WAVE IN NW FLOW ABOUT TUESDAY OR              
 WEDNESDAY BUT WILL LEAVE DRY FOR NOW.                                          
 AVIATION...21Z RUC SHOWING SATURATION/UPGLIDE ON THE 280K THETA                
 SURFACE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL              
 WI. THIS CORRESPONDS PRETTY WELL WITH THE MVFR CEILINGS AT                     
 KMSP...KRNH AND KEAU. BELIEVE AS THE EVENING PROGRESS...KMSP WILL              
 BREAK OUT OF THE LOW CEILINGS. BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS LATE THIS              
 AFTERNOON WAS PROGRESSING EAST AT 7 KNOTS. KEPT KEAU DOWN THROUGH              
 LATE TOMORROW MORNING. TO THE WEST...MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS            
 THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS THROUGH NE MN WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE AN AREA             
 OF FORCING THAT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NW CWA THIS EVENING. KEPT                
 THE MENTION OF SNOW TO KAXN. INDICATED A SMALL PERIOD OF MVFR                  
 CEILINGS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AT KSTC AND KMSP AS THE                
 ARCTIC AIR SURGES IN. BUFKIT PROFILE DATA FOR ALL OF THE MN TAF                
 SITES INDICATES 20 TO 22 KNOT WIND GUSTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF               
 PERIOD WITH SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS.                                     
 $$                                                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST FRIDAY FOR CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-          
      LAC QUI PARLE-POPE-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-YELLOW MEDICINE                     
      COUNTY(IES).                                                              
 WI...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 RAH/DWE                                                                        
</pre> mn                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                             
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                             
 549 PM CST THU JAN 11 2007                                                     
 .UPDATE...ADDED THE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION.                                        
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CST THU JAN 11 2007/                        
 DISCUSSION...                                                                  
 COLD AIR POURING IN THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH HAS SURE BEEN SCARCE                
 THIS SEASON. CURRENT SURFACE TEMPS UPSTREAM ARE COLDER THAN SHORT              
 TERM MODEL TRENDS BUT LATEST RUC HAS BETTER HANDLE. MIN TEMPS                  
 SHOULD BE BELOW ZERO IN THE FAR NORTHWEST OR WEST COUNTIES. WIND               
 CHILL VALUES WILL BE CLOSE TO CRITERIA...MAINLY LATE TONIGHT AND               
 FRIDAY MORNING. WITH ABRUPT CHANGE...WILL GO AHEAD WITH AN ADVISORY            
 FOR A FEW COUNTIES. WEAK WAVE STREAKING ENE ACROSS N CENTRAL SD                
 WILL CAUSE SOME LIGHT SNOW IN FAR N CWA MAINLY THIS EVENING.                   
 OTHERWISE KIND OF IN A HOLDING PATTERN UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. GFS               
 ENSEMBLE POPS OF LESS THAN 0.10 INCH KEEPING BEST CHANCES GENERALLY            
 SOUTH OF AREA UNTIL SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS IS ABOUT WHAT              
 WE CURRENTLY HAVE IN OUR GRIDS. ECMWF SHOWING A HINT  OF A WEAK                
 WAVE LIFTING OUT AHEAD OF SYSTEM LIFTING OUT ON SUNDAY WILL KEEP               
 THE SMALL CHANCE SATURDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN A SPLIT FLOW SITUATION             
 WHICH HAS BEEN THE CASE MOST OF THE FALL AND EARLY WINTER..SO                  
 EXPECT A FAIRLY SHARP CUT OFF IN PRECIP AGAIN. LOOKS LIKE A COUPLE             
 OF COLD NIGHTS AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH..WITH MORE                      
 WIDESPREAD SUB ZERO MIN TEMPS. FAIRLY DRY NW FLOW SO SLIM CHANCE               
 OF PRECIP...THERE IS A HINT OF A WAVE IN NW FLOW ABOUT TUESDAY OR              
 WEDNESDAY BUT WILL LEAVE DRY FOR NOW.                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...21Z RUC SHOWING SATURATION/UPGLIDE ON THE 280K THETA               
 SURFACE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL              
 WI. THIS CORRESPONDS PRETTY WELL WITH THE MVFR CEILINGS AT                     
 KMSP...KRNH AND KEAU. BELIEVE AS THE EVENING PROGRESS...KMSP WILL              
 BREAK OUT OF THE LOW CEILINGS. BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS LATE THIS              
 AFTERNOON WAS PROGRESSING EAST AT 7 KNOTS. KEPT KEAU DOWN THROUGH              
 LATE TOMORROW MORNING. TO THE WEST...MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS            
 THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS THROUGH NE MN WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE AN AREA             
 OF FORCING THAT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NW CWA THIS EVENING. KEPT                
 THE MENTION OF SNOW TO KAXN. INDICATED A SMALL PERIOD OF MVFR                  
 CEILINGS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AT KSTC AND KMSP AS THE                
 ARCTIC AIR SURGES IN. BUFKIT PROFILE DATA FOR ALL OF THE MN TAF                
 SITES INDICATES 20 TO 22 KNOT WIND GUSTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF               
 PERIOD WITH SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS.                                     
 &&                                                                             
 .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 12 PM CST FRIDAY            
      FOR CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-LAC QUI PARLE-POPE-STEVENS-SWIFT                     
      COUNTY(IES).                                                              
 WI...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 JPR/RAH                                                                        
</pre> mn                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                             
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                             
 1110 AM CST THU JAN 11 2007                                                    
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 /18Z TAF CYCLE/...DIFFICULT FORECAST CEILING WISE...WITH POCKETS               
 OF EITHER 1-1.5KFT CEILINGS OR 10KFT CEILINGS SCATTERED THROUGH                
 THE AREA. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH THE TREND OF BRINGING A BRIEF               
 BREAK IN THE LOW CLOUDS FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL /AND LOWER/ STRATUS             
 DURING THE AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO OVERNIGHT...AS THE BRUNT OF             
 THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL                   
 REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 12 TO 15 KTS...WITH HIGHER                        
 GUSTS...THROUGH THE PERIOD. BROUGHT A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS             
 INTO AXN AFTER 00Z TONIGHT...UNDER A REGION OF Q-VECTOR                        
 CONVERGENCE...HIGHER SREF POPS...AND LOWER CONDENSATION PRESSURE               
 DEFICITS. THE ONLY OTHER TAF SITE THAT MAY SEE SOME PRECIPITATION              
 LATE TONIGHT IS EAU...THAT BEING OF THE FLURRY OR FREEZING DRIZZLE             
 VARIETY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO                    
 INCLUDE. WILL PASS ON TO ONCOMING SHIFT...HOWEVER...FOR THE 00Z                
 ISSUANCE.                                                                      
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 AM CST THU JAN 11 2007/                        
 UPDATE...                                                                      
 COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...SANS THE                    
 EASTERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. MANY                  
 LOCATIONS HAVE MET THEIR DAILY HIGHS ALREADY...WITH PLENTY OF COLD             
 AIR ADVECTION MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS             
 FEATURE A STEADY TO FALLING TEMPERATURE TREND...MIRRORING THE                  
 TREND IN THE 06Z MAV. CLOUD COVER IS A BIT ERRATIC...WITH A FEW                
 AREAS OF STRATOCU IN THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME SCT TO              
 OVC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ELSEWHERE. LARGER AREA OF STRATOCU LOCATED             
 IN SOUTHERN CANADA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN                  
 CURRENTLY SHOULD MAKE A SOUTHWARD SPREAD AS MAIN AREA OF LOW LEVEL             
 COLD ADVECTION MOVES SOLIDLY INTO THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH                    
 SUPPORTS THE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST WE HAVE OUT THERE                
 CURRENTLY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON IN THE              
 NORTHWEST ALSO LOOKS GOOD...WITH FAIRLY HIGH POPS FEATURED ON THE              
 09Z SREF...AND A PRONOUNCED AREA OF 500 TO 300 MB Q-VECTOR                     
 CONVERGENCE AND LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ON THE 280K                 
 SURFACE ON THE 12Z RUC/NAM. UPDATED PRODUCTS ALREADY AVAILABLE.                
 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CST THU JAN 11 2007/                         
 DISCUSSION...                                                                  
 SFC LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CENTRAL MN/NW WI BORDER AT 10Z.                     
 PRESSURE FALLS INDICATE IT WILL MOVE ENE THIS MORNING AND DRAG                 
 COOLER AIR INTO THE WESTERN CWA. FIRST CONCERN WILL BE TEMP TRENDS             
 THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPS ROSE ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND EASTERN             
 CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT AND HAVE HELD FAIRLY STEADY SINCE AS AXIS OF               
 WARMEST H85 TEMPS ENTERED THE EASTERN CWA. COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO           
 THE NORTHWEST HAS BROUGHT A DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPS PAST FEW HOURS             
 AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. HAVE INDICATED                
 THIS IN THE GRIDS...WITH FAIRLY STEADY TEMPS ACROSS THE EAST                   
 HALF...WITH STEADY OR FALLING ACROSS THE WEST AS LOW PRESSURE                  
 MOVING NE INTO KANSAS HELPS TIGHTEN TEMP GRADIENT AND INHIBITS                 
 COLDER AIR ACROSS NRN PLAINS FROM BLASTING IN. NEXT CONCERN WILL               
 BE LOW PRECIP CHANCES. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME DRIZZLE                
 AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE EXTREME SE AS MOISTURE RIDES UP INTO                   
 WISCONSIN AND IOWA AND INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS FROM NW MO THRU                
 CENT WI. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW LATE THIS                     
 AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA AS               
 MID LEVEL TEMP GRADIENT TIGHTENS BRINGING A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS              
 WITH INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND Q VECTOR DIVERGENCE. WITH                
 LIFT IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY REACH THE                     
 GROUND...BUT BETTER MOISTURE IS JUST OUTSIDE THE CWA. HAVE ALSO                
 INCLUDED FLURRIES THIS EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS SOUNDINGS             
 INDICATE MOIST INVERSION WITH LOW STRATUS AND SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT.              
 COLDER AIR IS FINALLY ABLE TO WORK ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TOMORROW AS SFC      
 LOW PRES PULLS OFF INTO QUEBEC...ALLOWING BAROCLINIC ZONE TO SAG               
 SOUTHEAST. EXPECT VERY COLD BUT DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO                     
 SATURDAY.                                                                      
 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SEEING A SLOWING TREND IN THE MODELS WITH            
 THE EJECTION OF SOUTHWEST U.S. UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN           
 TO FAST WITH THE EJECTION OF PREVIOUS SOUTHWEST U.S. LOWS THIS                 
 SEASON AND AM SEEING THIS AGAIN WITH THE UPCOMING SYSTEM. CANADIAN             
 GLOBAL MODEL LOOKS TO BE THE MOST REASONABLE AT THIS POINT WITH A              
 SOLUTION THAT REFLECTS THE TREND THAT THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE WORKING            
 TOWARDS. CANADIAN INDICATES THAT UPPER LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER KS/NE           
 BY 12Z MONDAY AND MAKE PROGRESS ENE ACROSS IA THROUGH MONDAY. THIS             
 WOULD SET UP PRECIPITATION THAT MAY EFFECT SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN           
 CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SEVERAL CONCERNS FOR THIS TIME           
 FRAME. FIRST IS SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING IN ON THE HEELS OF MAIN UPPER            
 LOW EARLY SUNDAY. IF THIS FEATURE COMES TO FRUITION IT MAY WORK TO             
 KICK THE LOW OUT A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY PROGGED AND                
 SPREAD PRECIP FURTHER INTO THE CWA. ANOTHER CONCERN IS GFS AND                 
 CANADIAN DEPICTION OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF RIDING DOWN               
 THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA AND INTERACTING WITH MAIN UPPER LOW IN CLOSE            
 PROXIMITY TO THE CWA. A SIMILAR SCENARIO PLAYED OUT AT THE BEGINNING           
 OF THE MONTH.                                                                  
 &&                                                                             
 .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 MN...NONE.                                                                     
 WI...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 KAT/MDB                                                                        
</pre> mn                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                             
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                             
 936 AM CST THU JAN 11 2007                                                     
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...SANS THE                    
 EASTERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. MANY                  
 LOCATIONS HAVE MET THEIR DAILY HIGHS ALREADY...WITH PLENTY OF COLD             
 AIR ADVECTION MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS             
 FEATURE A STEADY TO FALLING TEMPERATURE TREND...MIRRORING THE                  
 TREND IN THE 06Z MAV. CLOUD COVER IS A BIT ERRATIC...WITH A FEW                
 AREAS OF STRATOCU IN THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME SCT TO              
 OVC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ELSEWHERE. LARGER AREA OF STRATOCU LOCATED             
 IN SOUTHERN CANADA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN                  
 CURRENTLY SHOULD MAKE A SOUTHWARD SPREAD AS MAIN AREA OF LOW LEVEL             
 COLD ADVECTION MOVES SOLIDLY INTO THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH                    
 SUPPORTS THE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST WE HAVE OUT THERE                
 CURRENTLY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON IN THE              
 NORTHWEST ALSO LOOKS GOOD...WITH FAIRLY HIGH POPS FEATURED ON THE              
 09Z SREF...AND A PRONOUNCED AREA OF 500 TO 300 MB Q-VECTOR                     
 CONVERGENCE AND LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ON THE 280K                 
 SURFACE ON THE 12Z RUC/NAM. UPDATED PRODUCTS ALREADY AVAILABLE.                
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CST THU JAN 11 2007/                        
 DISCUSSION...                                                                  
 SFC LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CENTRAL MN/NW WI BORDER AT 10Z.                     
 PRESSURE FALLS INDICATE IT WILL MOVE ENE THIS MORNING AND DRAG                 
 COOLER AIR INTO THE WESTERN CWA. FIRST CONCERN WILL BE TEMP TRENDS             
 THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPS ROSE ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND EASTERN             
 CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT AND HAVE HELD FAIRLY STEADY SINCE AS AXIS OF               
 WARMEST H85 TEMPS ENTERED THE EASTERN CWA. COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO           
 THE NORTHWEST HAS BROUGHT A DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPS PAST FEW HOURS             
 AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. HAVE INDICATED                
 THIS IN THE GRIDS...WITH FAIRLY STEADY TEMPS ACROSS THE EAST                   
 HALF...WITH STEADY OR FALLING ACROSS THE WEST AS LOW PRESSURE                  
 MOVING NE INTO KANSAS HELPS TIGHTEN TEMP GRADIENT AND INHIBITS                 
 COLDER AIR ACROSS NRN PLAINS FROM BLASTING IN. NEXT CONCERN WILL               
 BE LOW PRECIP CHANCES. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME DRIZZLE                
 AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE EXTREME SE AS MOISTURE RIDES UP INTO                   
 WISCONSIN AND IOWA AND INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS FROM NW MO THRU                
 CENT WI. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW LATE THIS                     
 AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA AS               
 MID LEVEL TEMP GRADIENT TIGHTENS BRINGING A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS              
 WITH INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND Q VECTOR DIVERGENCE. WITH                
 LIFT IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY REACH THE                     
 GROUND...BUT BETTER MOISTURE IS JUST OUTSIDE THE CWA. HAVE ALSO                
 INCLUDED FLURRIES THIS EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS SOUNDINGS             
 INDICATE MOIST INVERSION WITH LOW STRATUS AND SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT.              
 COLDER AIR IS FINALLY ABLE TO WORK ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TOMORROW AS SFC      
 LOW PRES PULLS OFF INTO QUEBEC...ALLOWING BAROCLINIC ZONE TO SAG               
 SOUTHEAST. EXPECT VERY COLD BUT DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO                     
 SATURDAY.                                                                      
 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SEEING A SLOWING TREND IN THE MODELS WITH            
 THE EJECTION OF SOUTHWEST U.S. UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN           
 TO FAST WITH THE EJECTION OF PREVIOUS SOUTHWEST U.S. LOWS THIS                 
 SEASON AND AM SEEING THIS AGAIN WITH THE UPCOMING SYSTEM. CANADIAN             
 GLOBAL MODEL LOOKS TO BE THE MOST REASONABLE AT THIS POINT WITH A              
 SOLUTION THAT REFLECTS THE TREND THAT THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE WORKING            
 TOWARDS. CANADIAN INDICATES THAT UPPER LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER KS/NE           
 BY 12Z MONDAY AND MAKE PROGRESS ENE ACROSS IA THROUGH MONDAY. THIS             
 WOULD SET UP PRECIPITATION THAT MAY EFFECT SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN           
 CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SEVERAL CONCERNS FOR THIS TIME           
 FRAME. FIRST IS SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING IN ON THE HEELS OF MAIN UPPER            
 LOW EARLY SUNDAY. IF THIS FEATURE COMES TO FRUITION IT MAY WORK TO             
 KICK THE LOW OUT A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY PROGGED AND                
 SPREAD PRECIP FURTHER INTO THE CWA. ANOTHER CONCERN IS GFS AND                 
 CANADIAN DEPICTION OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF RIDING DOWN               
 THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA AND INTERACTING WITH MAIN UPPER LOW IN CLOSE            
 PROXIMITY TO THE CWA. A SIMILAR SCENARIO PLAYED OUT AT THE BEGINNING           
 OF THE MONTH.                                                                  
 &&                                                                             
 .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 MN...NONE.                                                                     
 WI...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 KAT/MDB                                                                        
</pre> mn                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                         
 925 AM EST THU JAN 11 2007                                                     
 .SHORT TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...UPDATED                                         
 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER DELMARVA AND EASTERN VA WILL               
 CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THIS             
 AFTERNOON. KEPT MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON A CATEGORY BELOW THE LATEST           
 GUIDANCE WHICH HAS BEEN RUNNING A LITTLE WARM WITH THIS AIRMASS.               
 SOUNDING EXTRAPOLATIONS ALSO SUGGEST STAYING ON THE COOLER SIDE OF             
 GUIDANCE UNDER NEAR FULL SUN.                                                  
 MID TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...                                   
 UPPER RIDGE TO DOMINATE THE MID TERM. AT THE SFC...AN EAST-WEST                
 RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND ACROSS OR IN THE VICINITY OF THE ILM CWA FROM           
 THE HIGH CENTER LOCATED OFFSHORE FROM HAT. LATE TONIGHT AND                    
 FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW A KINK IN THE SFC PRESSURE FIELD OFF THE                  
 CAROLINA COASTS...AKA INVERTED SFC TROF. SOMEWHAT WEAK BUT MAY BE              
 ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ONSHORE MOVEMENT OF LOW             
 LEVEL CLOUDS. MODEL TIME HEIGHT PLOTS INDICATE VERY SHALLOW                    
 MOISTURE...EXTENDING ONLY UP TO 850MB. AS A RESULT...WILL REMOVE               
 POPS ACROSS THE ILM CWA BUT LEAVE A SMALL CHANCE OVER THE ADJACENT             
 OFFSHORE WATERS. SFC TROF TO DISSIPATE OR WASH OUT FRIDAY NIGHT.               
 FOR SATURDAY...WITH STATIONARY FRONTAL BNDRY JUST NW OF THE ILM                
 CWA...CULD OBSERVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE ILM CWA FROM PCPN              
 MOVING ALONG IT. WILL KEEP SOME TYPE OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION           
 FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT...BUT REMAIN PCPN FREE. TEMPS WILL                 
 DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS AND ONSHORE WINDS. OVERALL...WILL           
 INDICATE A WARMING TREND WITH WIDESPREAD 70S LIKELY ON SATURDAY.               
 JUST ANOTHER SUMMER...I MEAN WINTER WEEKEND SHAPING UP FOR THE ILM             
 CWA.                                                                           
 &&                                                                             
 .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                       
 SUNDAY WILL BE NEARLY ANOTHER REPEAT OF SATURDAY...WITH WELL ABOVE             
 NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS DUE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING              
 AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WELL OFFSHORE. AN UPPER LEVEL                 
 TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND AN                    
 ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL ALLOW A            
 COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A           
 SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT           
 SHOULD BE OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT                  
 SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AND AFFECT THE AREA.                    
 AN UNUSUALLY STRONG 1050 MB HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD            
 OVER THE AREA LATE TUESDAY...AND PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS               
 WILL CAUSE 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET...FALLING TO AS LOW AS -10           
 CELSIUS BY WEDNESDAY IF THE LATEST GFS IS CORRECT. MEANWHILE...A               
 WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WELL OFFSHORE ALONG THE            
 OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS LOW COULD BRING SOME MOISTURE BACK INTO             
 COASTAL AREAS SO WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THESE               
 LOCATIONS AS A RESULT. IF THE LOW AND/OR ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ARE ANY           
 CLOSER TO THE COAST...PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES COULD BE A                     
 CONCERN...ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND LOCATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO                   
 WEDNESDAY.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS             
 EAST...ALLOWING NORTHEAST WINDS TO SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST BY LATE                  
 AFTERNOON. DID NOT PUT ANY FOG IN THE TAFS FOR THE OVERNIGHT                   
 HOURS...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE 5-6 SM BR RIGHT AT SUNRISE           
 WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.                              
 &&                                                                             
 .MARINE...                                                                     
 SHORT TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...UPDATED                                          
 PLAN TO FOLLOW THE RUC THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS SCENARIO HOLDS              
 ONTO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW VERSUS VEERING IT DIRECTLY ONSHORE AS SOME             
 OF THE OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE. FEEL WITH HIGH PRESSURE              
 RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH AND DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH             
 THAT THE RUC HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION. OTHERWISE...NO                
 MAJOR CHANGES WITH THE MORNING UPDATE.                                         
 MID TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...                                   
 UPPER RIDGE AND ITS SFC COUNTERPART TO DOMINATE THE WX AND OCEAN               
 CONDITIONS DURING THE MID TERM. THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH WILL                
 DRIFT OFFSHORE FROM CAPE HATTERAS BY LATE FRIDAY. AM NOT ALL THAT              
 CONFIDENT WITH THE IDEA AND SOLUTION FROM VARIOUS MODELS WITH                  
 REGARDS TO THE SHALLOW SFC COASTAL TROF AND ITS POSSIBLE MOVEMENT              
 WESTWARD. FOR NOW HAVE INDICATED A LONGER PERIOD OF NE-E WINDS ON              
 FRIDAY WITH VEERING TO SE AND S DIRECTIONS THERE-AFTER. UNLIKE THE             
 NAM...THE GFS WANTS TO SUPPRESS THE SFC HIGH SOMEWHAT...RESULTING IN           
 THE EAST TO WEST SFC RDG AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE ILM WATERS.               
 THIS TO CAUSE A WESTERLY COMPONENT IN THE WINDS. WILL HOLD OFF WITH            
 THE SW-W WINDS UNTIL MODEL TREND/CONSISTENCY BECOMES MORE PREVALENT.           
 OVERALL...WIND SPEEDS 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS.                        
 LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                           
 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY...WITH A SOUTHERLY           
 FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE ON            
 SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS               
 COULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA DUE TO THE                        
 STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND GOOD FETCH ACROSS THE COASTAL                 
 WATERS. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT              
 MOVES OFFSHORE.                                                                
 &&                                                                             
 .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NC...NONE.                                                                     
 SC...NONE.                                                                     
 MARINE...NONE.                                                                 
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SHORT TERM...PFAFF                                                             
 AVIATION...DL                                                                  
</pre> nc                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                             
 1033 AM CST THU JAN 11 2007                                                    
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GRIDS. THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE FIRST               
 PERIOD ARE THE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS... AS THE FORECAST AREA                   
 REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR. A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTCENTRAL AND             
 NORTHCENTRAL OKLAHOMA HAD INCREASED TO NEAR WIND ADVISORY                      
 CRITERIA. HOWEVER... LATEST RUC SUGGEST A WEAKENING IN THE                     
 PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.              
 AS A RESULT... THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND STAY              
 BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.                                                         
 &&                                                                             
 .SHORT TERM...                                                                 
 .LONG TERM...                                                                  
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 AM CST THU JAN 11 2007/                        
 DISCUSSION...THE IMPENDING WINTER STORM HAS BEEN WELL                          
 ADVERTISED...BUT CHOSE TO RAMP UP TO A WINTER STORM WATCH AS SOME              
 OF THE MESOSCALE DETAILS ARE BECOMING BETTER DEFINED.                          
 A FEW CYCLES AGO...THE MODELS TRENDED TOWARD A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN             
 THE BASE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH...AND THIS HAS NOT CHANGED. THE UPPER           
 LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR SEATTLE THIS MORNING AND SATELLITE SHOWED IT              
 DROPPING ALMOST DUE SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST...WITH A COMPACT JET            
 DIVING INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AT 00Z                  
 INDICATED STRONG COLD ADVECTION INTO THE BASE OF THE 700-500 MB                
 TROUGH AT 00Z...AND MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR IN TAKING THE CLOSED LOW           
 TOWARD NORTHERN ARIZONA BY SATURDAY MORNING.                                   
 A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE MODELS...HOWEVER...HAS BEEN TO                     
 DRAMATICALLY SPEED THE ARRIVAL OF SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES ON                 
 FRIDAY. THIS HAD BEEN ANTICIPATED...BUT NOW IS APPEARING ALMOST A              
 SURE THING AS THE LEADING EDGE OF CANADIAN AIR WAS ALREADY INTO                
 NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT            
 THE FRONT TO REACH NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BY EVENING AND I-44 AND BEYOND            
 BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE MODELS MAY STILL NOT BE FAST ENOUGH...BUT               
 THEY ARE STARTING TO CATCH ON. AND IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND           
 THE NAM WAS PREFERRED AS IT KEEPS THE COLD AIR IN PLACE AND HAS A              
 MORE REALISTIC PRESSURE PATTERN...NOT ALLOWING ANY STRONG                      
 CYCLOGENESIS OR SURFACE TROUGHS TO OCCUR IN THE COLD AIR AS THE GFS            
 HAS BEEN DOING.                                                                
 BOTH THE NAM AND GFS PRODUCE A LOT OF LIQUID PRECIP WHICH COINCIDES            
 WITH SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE. CONFIDENCE IS                   
 INCREASING TOWARD A MAJOR ICE STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION...WITH                
 EVERYONE SEEING AT LEAST SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FREEZING                    
 RAIN...BUT WITH SOME AREAS SEEING MUCH MORE. THE HEAVIER ICE                   
 ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR MOST LIKELY ALONG AND EITHER SIDE                         
 OF INTERSTATE 44...AFFECTING THE METRO AREAS FROM WICHITA FALLS TO             
 LAWTON TO OKLAHOMA CITY...AND INCLUDING SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.                     
 EXPECTING THE HEAVIER PRECIP TO COME IN TWO WAVES...THE FIRST ON               
 FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A SUB TROPICAL JET EJECTING OUT OF               
 NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN EXTENSIVE PERIOD OF ENHANCED             
 WARM ADVECTION ALOFT IN THE RIGHT REAR OF THE JET. THE SECOND EVENT            
 WILL COVER A LARGER AREA AS THE MAIN UPPER WAVE EJECTS FROM THE                
 ROCKIES. THROUGHOUT ALL THIS...THERE WILL BE DEEPER MOISTURE AND               
 POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE RED RIVER UP THROUGH            
 CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO FREEZING ALONG THE            
 RED RIVER IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...BUT MUCH COLDER TOWARD WESTERN                
 NORTH TEXAS AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. WILL HOPE THAT THE HEAVIEST                  
 AMOUNTS END UP NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE FREEZING LINE...BUT IF A WORST             
 CASE SCENARIO WERE TO OCCUR THERE COULD BE A SWATH OF ICE                      
 ACCUMULATION MEASURED IN INCHES. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL BECOME               
 GUSTY ON SUNDAY...AND COULD BRING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES              
 WEIGHTED DOWN BY THE ICE.                                                      
 NO CHANGES MADE BEYOND SUNDAY.                                                 
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 OKLAHOMA CITY OK  63  40  40  22 /  10  40  70  70                             
 HOBART OK         70  41  41  22 /  10  20  40  50                             
 WICHITA FALLS TX  71  59  59  26 /  10  30  80  80                             
 GAGE OK           66  28  28  17 /   0  10  30  40                             
 PONCA CITY OK     59  35  35  19 /  10  30  50  50                             
 DURANT OK         60  60  62  34 /  20  40  80  80                             
 &&                                                                             
 .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 OK...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY                   
      AFTERNOON FOR OKZ004>047-050-051.                                         
 TX...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY                   
      AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083>090.                                                 
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 67/23                                                                          
</pre> ok                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                             
 429 AM CST WED JAN 10 2007                                                     
 .DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUSES ENTIRELY ON THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM              
 AND LOW LEVEL ARCTIC AIR MASS THAT WILL BOTH DROP FROM ALASKA INTO             
 THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL STATES. THE UPPER LOW WAS ALREADY                      
 ENCROACHING ON THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...WITH STRONG JET FLOW OVER            
 THE MOUNTAINS OF MONTANA CREATING A DEEP 992 MB SURFACE LOW. WITH              
 THE LEE TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA TODAY...AND HIGH           
 PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...A WIND                   
 ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THE NAM             
 GRIDDED DATA AND GFS MOS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING SUSTAINED             
 WINDS NEAR 30 KNOTS IN THE TYPICALLY WINDY CORRIDORS THIS                      
 AFTERNOON...AND THE RUC IS SUPPORTING THIS TREND. IT WILL BE A                 
 WINDY BUT MILD DAY EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY AREA.                          
 OTHERWISE...MOST EFFORT THIS MORNING WAS PUT INTO THE PRECIPITATION            
 FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND. PREVIOUS THINKING CONTINUES TO BE ON                 
 TRACK...AS THE LONG RANGE MODELS STILL BRING THE FRONT THROUGH ON              
 FRIDAY. THEY HAVE ALSO TRENDED TOWARD MAINTAINING A CLOSED LOW IN              
 THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT TURNS EAST AROUND THE FOUR                  
 CORNERS REGION. THIS TREND HAS INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THERE BEING             
 DEEP BROAD SCALE LIFT FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...AND POPS WERE                
 RAISED ACCORDINGLY. POPS WERE ALSO RAISED SOMEWHAT ON THURSDAY                 
 NIGHT...WHERE MODELS ARE BETTER RESOLVING A SHARP MID LEVEL JET                
 EJECTING FROM BAJA. THERE WILL BE A MID LEVEL DRY LAYER TO                     
 OVERCOME...BUT GFS AND NAM CROSS SECTIONS SHOW SUFFICIENT                      
 LIFT...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-44. ALL OF THIS PRECIP WILL BE           
 LIQUID...AS THE FRONT IS NOT DUE TO ARRIVE UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY                  
 MORNING. FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT THE AREA MAY BE UNDER                   
 SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY PRECIP DOES NOT           
 APPEAR LIKELY. BUT WITH THE FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH WE MAY SEE                  
 WIDESPREAD SHALLOW RAIN SHOWERS OR A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY           
 IN SOUTHERN ZONES. FARTHER NORTH...WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE             
 FLOW IS LIKELY TO GENERATE DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE.                       
 CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE FRIDAY ACTIVITY MAY LEAD TO ISSUANCE OF           
 A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SOMEWHERE NORTH AND WEST FROM I-44. THE              
 PERIOD OF GREATER CONCERN FOR SIGNIFICANT ICING IS SATURDAY INTO               
 EARLY SUNDAY. THE MAIN QUESTION IS THE POSITION OF THE FRONTAL ZONE            
 AND THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES. EVERY LONG RANGE MODEL CONTINUES TO             
 LOOK UNREALISTIC IN ITS DEPICTION OF AN EAST TO WEST ORIENTED FRONT            
 THAT LIFTS NORTH ON SATURDAY. BASED ON EXPERIENCE WITH SHALLOW                 
 FRIGID AIR MASSES...EXPECT THE FRONT TO GO FARTHER SOUTH ON THE HIGH           
 PLAINS THROUGH TEXAS AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO...BUT THE EASTERN                  
 PORTION OF THE FRONT MAY VERY WELL STALL IN SOUTHEAST                          
 OKLAHOMA...MAKING FOR SOME EXTREME TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES ACROSS              
 THE STATE ON SATURDAY. AS THE WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES                         
 ALOFT...WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN APPEAR LIKELY. TOO EARLY TO              
 TELL WHERE THE HEAVIEST ICING MAY OCCUR...BUT THIS MAY WARRANT A               
 WINTER STORM WATCH AS WE APPROACH THE EVENT ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.             
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 OKLAHOMA CITY OK  58  47  62  45 /   0   0  20  40                             
 HOBART OK         62  48  64  42 /   0   0  10  20                             
 WICHITA FALLS TX  65  49  64  53 /   0   0  10  40                             
 GAGE OK           63  40  62  29 /   0   0   0  10                             
 PONCA CITY OK     57  44  57  38 /   0   0  10  30                             
 DURANT OK         60  47  62  58 /   0  10  30  50                             
 &&                                                                             
 .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON          
      FOR OKZ004-OKZ005-OKZ006-OKZ007-OKZ008-OKZ009-OKZ010-OKZ011-              
      OKZ012-OKZ013-OKZ014-OKZ015-OKZ016-OKZ017-OKZ018-OKZ021-                  
      OKZ022-OKZ023-OKZ024-OKZ035.                                              
 TX...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 BURKE/02                                                                       
</pre> ok                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX                                  
 1153 PM CST WED JAN 10 2007                                                    
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 MAIN PROBLEM CONCERNS THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW CLOUD DECK. THE               
 MODEL GUIDANCE LINED UP WITH THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS FAIRLY                   
 WELL...MOS GUIDANCE WAS OKAY ON A SCALE OF NOT GOOD...OKAY...AND               
 GOOD. LIKED HOW THE RUC...NAM12...AND GFS ALL LINED UP THE BEST                
 LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES EARLY...              
 THEN FILLED IN THE CENTRAL AREAS LATER TONIGHT.                                
 THUS...EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 08Z AND 10Z OVER                
 MOST OF THE SITES FROM HOU NORTH TO UTS AND WEST TO CLL. SGR AND               
 LBX MAY LAG AN HOUR TO 11Z AND GLS TO 14Z. THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS             
 GOOD OVER THE INLAND SITES NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 AND THE TWO BIG              
 AIRPORTS IN HOUSTON. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A DIFFICULT DAY. THE                 
 MODEL GUIDANCE WAS SUGGESTING SOME BRIEF VFR BREAKS DURING THE                 
 AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE WINDS PICK UP. THE MAV GUIDANCE LOOKS                 
 REASONABLE IN BRINGING IN SEA FOG AT GLS DURING THE EVENING.                   
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 827 PM CST WED JAN 10 2007/                        
 UPDATE...                                                                      
 CLOUDS INCREASING A BIT FASTER THAN PROGGED. SATELLITE DERIVED PW              
 SHOWS MOISTURE INCREASING FROM THE GULF AND THIS SHOWS UP WELL IN              
 THE 11-3.9 SATELLITE IMAGERY. THINK MIN TEMP FORECAST IS OK...BUT              
 WILL WATCH CLOUD TRENDS AND IF AN OVERCAST DEVELOPS...WILL LIKELY              
 RAISE MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. WILL UPDATE ZONES TO TWEAK SKY                  
 COVER OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.                                                    
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      66  52  67  62  73 /   0   0  10  20  40            
 HOUSTON (IAH)              66  51  69  61  73 /   0   0  10  10  20            
 GALVESTON (GLS)            63  57  69  62  71 /   0   0  10  10  20            
 &&                                                                             
 .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 TX...NONE.                                                                     
 GM...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 DISCUSSION...43                                                                
 AVIATION/MARINE...40                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                             
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                         
 1035 PM CST WED JAN 10 2007                                                    
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING. STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOWER TO              
 DEVELOP THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. CURRENT THINKING HAS MVFR CIGS               
 DEVELOPING BY 08Z FOR ACT AND 09Z FOR THE METROPLEX SITES. CIGS MAY            
 DROP AS LOW AS IFR TOMORROW MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN           
 THE MVFR CATEGORY THRU THE DAY. RAIN CHANCES STILL LOOK BEST BEYOND            
 THIS TAF CYCLE.  /13                                                           
 &&                                                                             
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 935 PM CST WED JAN 10 2007                                                     
 MINOR UPDATES TO TRENDS TONIGHT AND TO RAISE LOWS IN URBAN AREAS...            
 AND LOWER THEM IN THE EAST A FEW DEGREES...AS LOW CLOUD COVER PER              
 RUC/NAM LOOK TO BE IN LINE WITH MOST STRATUS SLOW TO FORM THROUGH              
 06Z...BUT SHOULD SURGE QUICKLY AFTERWARDS. THUS WE`LL CONTINUE TO              
 SEE TEMPS SLOWLY DROP ACROSS MOST AREAS...THEN REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN           
 RISE SLIGHTLY TOWARD MORNING WITH THE STRATUS AND STRONG S/SELY                
 WNDS. ALSO ADJUSTED MSTR/RH/DEW PTS. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.                      
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 505 PM CST WED JAN 10 2007/                        
 AVIATION...                                                                    
 MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE TAFS WILL BE THE LOW CLOUDS WHICH WILL START            
 TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. 40-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP ATMOSPHERE              
 QUICKLY SATURATE. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO BE PREDOMINANT...ALTHOUGH IFR            
 CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE. CIGS WILL NOT IMPROVE MUCH WITH DAYBREAK AND            
 AGAIN EXPECT OVC MVFR THRU THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE...           
 WITH SPEEDS DROPPING OFF ONLY SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING AND INCREASING             
 AGAIN BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. BEST RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE BEYOND               
 THIS TAF SET.  /13                                                             
 DISCUSSION...                                                                  
 323 PM CST WED JAN 10 2007                                                     
 SOUTH WINDS HAVE QUICKLY RETURNED TO THE AREA WITH A LARGE REGION              
 OF 4-6 MB 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CENTRAL PART OF              
 THE COUNTRY. THESE WINDS WILL USHER IN GULF MOISTURE IN THE                    
 OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALLOWING FOR RAPID SATURATION OF THE LOW LEVELS.             
 CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL BY SUNRISE AS LOW CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM                
 THE SOUTH AND HIGH AND MID LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMS IN FROM              
 THE SOUTHWEST. MOISTURE BECOMES DEEP ENOUGH FOR STREAMER SHOWERS               
 WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET BY THURSDAY NIGHT.             
 BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BEGIN ON FRIDAY AS CAP ERODES AND                  
 MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS IN PLACE. SUBTLE LIFTING IS EVIDENT              
 ON THE COMPUTER MODELS...BUT UPPER TROUGH WILL BE FAIRLY FAR AWAY              
 AND WENT WITH THE DRIER NAM SOLUTION FRIDAY. STILL DO EXPECT                   
 SCATTERED CONVECTION...BUT WILL NOT BUY INTO THE LIKELY POPS                   
 ADVERTISED BY THE MAV MOS UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.                             
 MEANWHILE...ARCTIC AIRMASS IS NOW BEGINNING TO NOSE INTO MONTANA               
 BEHIND POWERFUL SURFACE LOW IN SOUTH DAKOTA. 1050 MB ARCTIC HIGH               
 WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH               
 SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES AS FAR SOUTH AS NEBRASKA. UPPER LEVEL                
 TROUGH WILL ALSO DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE WEST COAST WHICH IS THE                  
 PRIMARY CULPRIT FOR FRONTAL TIMING UNCERTAINTIES AND FREEZING RAIN             
 CHANCES OVER THE NW CWA. SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH                
 WILL TRY TO HOLD THE FRONT BACK...BUT THIS AIRMASS WILL BE                     
 EXTRAORDINARILY DENSE...AND A SHALLOW 50-100 MB DEEP LAYER OF                  
 ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA BY FRIDAY. A GOOD                
 ANALOGY TO THIS PROCESS WOULD BE LIKE POURING WATER ON A TABLE                 
 WITH THE WATER SPREADING OUTWARDS. THE NAM MODEL TYPICALLY DOES A              
 BETTER JOB WITH SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASSES...AND HAS THE FRONT                   
 MOVING THOUGH FASTER/STRONGER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. SEE NO REASON             
 NOT TO FOLLOW THE NAM FORECAST CLOSELY GIVEN ITS TRACK RECORD.                 
 WE EXPECT THE FRONT TO REACH THE NW CWA FRIDAY EVENING AND                     
 GRADUALLY MARCH SOUTH SATURDAY. WE HAVE THE FRONT CROSSING THE                 
 METROPLEX AT 9 AM SATURDAY...WACO AT 7 PM...AND FINALLY CLEARING               
 THE SE ZONES BY 3 AM SUNDAY. POST FRONTAL RAIN/FOG/DRIZZLE WILL BE             
 FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AS ISENTROPIC LIFT ENSUES WITH 40-50 KT SOUTHERLY            
 LOW LEVEL FLOW ABOVE THE FRONT REMAINING INTACT. FREEZING TEMPS                
 ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW CWA BY SATURDAY EVENING AND REACH             
 A PARIS TO DALLAS TO COMANCHE LINE BY SUNDAY MORNING. ANY                      
 LINGERING PRECIP WOULD FALL AS FREEZING RAIN. IT IS STILL TOO                  
 EARLY TO ANTICIPATE POSSIBLE ACCUMULATION OR IMPACTS...AND ANY                 
 SLIGHT DEVIATION IN THE FORECAST TEMPS WOULD GREATLY AFFECT THE                
 ICE POTENTIAL.                                                                 
 THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FINALLY EXIT FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE             
 DAY SUNDAY WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS                     
 EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IT WILL BE COLD...AND STAY              
 RATHER CHILLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES AROUND 20 FOR LOWS               
 AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS APPEAR REASONABLE GIVEN THE              
 SLOWLY MODIFYING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES. WENT JUST A LITTLE COLDER              
 THAN 12Z MEX MOS FOR LOWS...BUT 5-10 DEGREES COLDER FOR THE HIGHS.             
 TR.92                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  51  65  60  68  55 /  10  10  30  40  80                 
 WACO, TX              53  66  61  70  62 /  10  10  30  40  40                 
 PARIS, TX             45  59  58  66  57 /  10  10  30  40  80                 
 DENTON, TX            50  64  58  67  48 /  10  10  30  40  80                 
 MCKINNEY, TX          50  63  59  67  53 /  10  10  30  40  80                 
 DALLAS, TX            52  65  61  69  58 /  10  10  30  40  80                 
 TERRELL, TX           49  63  60  69  60 /  10  10  30  40  80                 
 CORSICANA, TX         51  64  62  70  62 /  10  10  30  40  60                 
 TEMPLE, TX            52  66  62  71  62 /  10  10  30  40  40                 
 &&                                                                             
 .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NONE.                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 05/13/92                                                                       
</pre> tx                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                             
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                         
 935 PM CST WED JAN 10 2007                                                     
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 MINOR UPDATES TO TRENDS TONIGHT AND TO RAISE LOWS IN URBAN AREAS...            
 AND LOWER THEM IN THE EAST A FEW DEGREES...AS LOW CLOUD COVER PER              
 RUC/NAM LOOK TO BE INLINE WITH MOST STRATUS SLOW TO FORM THROUGH               
 06Z...BUT SHOULD SURGE QUICKLY AFTERWARDS. THUS WE`LL CONTINUE TO              
 SEE TEMPS SLOWLY DROP ACROSS MOST AREAS...THEN REMAIN STEADY OR                
 EVEN RISE SLIGHTLY TOWARD MORNING WITH THE STRATUS AND STRONG                  
 S/SELY WNDS. ALSO ADJUSTED MSTR/RH/DEW PTS. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.               
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 505 PM CST WED JAN 10 2007/                        
 AVIATION...                                                                    
 MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE TAFS WILL BE THE LOW CLOUDS WHICH WILL START            
 TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. 40-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP ATMOSPHERE              
 QUICKLY SATURATE. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO BE PREDOMINANT...ALTHOUGH IFR            
 CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE. CIGS WILL NOT IMPROVE MUCH WITH DAYBREAK AND            
 AGAIN EXPECT OVC MVFR THRU THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE...           
 WITH SPEEDS DROPPING OFF ONLY SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING AND INCREASING             
 AGAIN BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. BEST RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE BEYOND               
 THIS TAF SET.  /13                                                             
 DISCUSSION...                                                                  
 323 PM CST WED JAN 10 2007                                                     
 SOUTH WINDS HAVE QUICKLY RETURNED TO THE AREA WITH A LARGE REGION              
 OF 4-6 MB 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CENTRAL PART OF              
 THE COUNTRY. THESE WINDS WILL USHER IN GULF MOISTURE IN THE                    
 OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALLOWING FOR RAPID SATURATION OF THE LOW LEVELS.             
 CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL BY SUNRISE AS LOW CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM                
 THE SOUTH AND HIGH AND MID LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMS IN FROM              
 THE SOUTHWEST. MOISTURE BECOMES DEEP ENOUGH FOR STREAMER SHOWERS               
 WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET BY THURSDAY NIGHT.             
 BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BEGIN ON FRIDAY AS CAP ERODES AND                  
 MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS IN PLACE. SUBTLE LIFTING IS EVIDENT              
 ON THE COMPUTER MODELS...BUT UPPER TROUGH WILL BE FAIRLY FAR AWAY              
 AND WENT WITH THE DRIER NAM SOLUTION FRIDAY. STILL DO EXPECT                   
 SCATTERED CONVECTION...BUT WILL NOT BUY INTO THE LIKELY POPS                   
 ADVERTISED BY THE MAV MOS UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.                             
 MEANWHILE...ARCTIC AIRMASS IS NOW BEGINNING TO NOSE INTO MONTANA               
 BEHIND POWERFUL SURFACE LOW IN SOUTH DAKOTA. 1050 MB ARCTIC HIGH               
 WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH               
 SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES AS FAR SOUTH AS NEBRASKA. UPPER LEVEL                
 TROUGH WILL ALSO DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE WEST COAST WHICH IS THE                  
 PRIMARY CULPRIT FOR FRONTAL TIMING UNCERTAINTIES AND FREEZING RAIN             
 CHANCES OVER THE NW CWA. SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH                
 WILL TRY TO HOLD THE FRONT BACK...BUT THIS AIRMASS WILL BE                     
 EXTRAORDINARILY DENSE...AND A SHALLOW 50-100 MB DEEP LAYER OF                  
 ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA BY FRIDAY. A GOOD                
 ANALOGY TO THIS PROCESS WOULD BE LIKE POURING WATER ON A TABLE                 
 WITH THE WATER SPREADING OUTWARDS. THE NAM MODEL TYPICALLY DOES A              
 BETTER JOB WITH SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASSES...AND HAS THE FRONT                   
 MOVING THOUGH FASTER/STRONGER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. SEE NO REASON             
 NOT TO FOLLOW THE NAM FORECAST CLOSELY GIVEN ITS TRACK RECORD.                 
 WE EXPECT THE FRONT TO REACH THE NW CWA FRIDAY EVENING AND                     
 GRADUALLY MARCH SOUTH SATURDAY. WE HAVE THE FRONT CROSSING THE                 
 METROPLEX AT 9 AM SATURDAY...WACO AT 7 PM...AND FINALLY CLEARING               
 THE SE ZONES BY 3 AM SUNDAY. POST FRONTAL RAIN/FOG/DRIZZLE WILL BE             
 FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AS ISENTROPIC LIFT ENSUES WITH 40-50 KT SOUTHERLY            
 LOW LEVEL FLOW ABOVE THE FRONT REMAINING INTACT. FREEZING TEMPS                
 ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW CWA BY SATURDAY EVENING AND REACH             
 A PARIS TO DALLAS TO COMANCHE LINE BY SUNDAY MORNING. ANY                      
 LINGERING PRECIP WOULD FALL AS FREEZING RAIN. IT IS STILL TOO                  
 EARLY TO ANTICIPATE POSSIBLE ACCUMULATION OR IMPACTS...AND ANY                 
 SLIGHT DEVIATION IN THE FORECAST TEMPS WOULD GREATLY AFFECT THE                
 ICE POTENTIAL.                                                                 
 THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FINALLY EXIT FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE             
 DAY SUNDAY WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS                     
 EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IT WILL BE COLD...AND STAY              
 RATHER CHILLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES AROUND 20 FOR LOWS               
 AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS APPEAR REASONABLE GIVEN THE              
 SLOWLY MODIFYING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES. WENT JUST A LITTLE COLDER              
 THAN 12Z MEX MOS FOR LOWS...BUT 5-10 DEGREES COLDER FOR THE HIGHS.             
 TR.92                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  51  65  60  68  55 /  10  10  30  40  80                 
 WACO, TX              53  66  61  70  62 /  10  10  30  40  40                 
 PARIS, TX             45  59  58  66  57 /  10  10  30  40  80                 
 DENTON, TX            50  64  58  67  48 /  10  10  30  40  80                 
 MCKINNEY, TX          50  63  59  67  53 /  10  10  30  40  80                 
 DALLAS, TX            52  65  61  69  58 /  10  10  30  40  80                 
 TERRELL, TX           49  63  60  69  60 /  10  10  30  40  80                 
 CORSICANA, TX         51  64  62  70  62 /  10  10  30  40  60                 
 TEMPLE, TX            52  66  62  71  62 /  10  10  30  40  40                 
 &&                                                                             
 .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NONE.                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 05/13/92                                                                       
</pre> tx                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA                                            
 1225 AM PST WED JAN 10 2007                                                    
 .SYNOPSIS...GUSTY WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AS A                     
 VIGOROUS COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION. AN UPPER              
 LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THIS WILL ALLOW A             
 COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD AIR               
 WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE END OF               
 THE WEEK.                                                                      
 &&                                                                             
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 REST OF TONIGHT....VIGOROUS COLD FRONT HAS NOW PASSED THROUGH MOST             
 OF THE INLAND NW. AS OF 08Z...IT WAS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY                     
 SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM RITZVILLE TO COEUR D`ALENE TO SANDPOINT.              
 WHILE AREAS NORTHEAST OF THIS LINE STAND LITTLE CHANCE OF                      
 MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...THE SAME             
 CANNOT BE SAID SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE. OVER THE PAST COUPLE                     
 HOURS...CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY WHILE RADAR ECHOES                
 HAVE BECOME WIDESPREAD. IT ALSO APPEARS THE FRONT HAS SLOWED ITS               
 SE PROGRESSION AS IT BEGINS TO PARALLEL THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW.                  
 LOOKS LIKE THE RUC IS GRASPING AT THIS TREND...WHEREAS THE GFS AND             
 NAM SEEM A LITTLE TOO FAST. IF THE RUC IS CORRECT THE FRONT WILL               
 COMPLETELY EXIT THE CWA BY 15Z. BEFORE THAT TIME THOUGH WE EXPECT              
 CATEGORICAL POPS TO CONTINUE TO ITS SE. THE OTHER CHANGE WAS TO                
 LOWER SNOW LEVELS QUITE A BIT AS THE PRECIPITATION AT PULLMAN                  
 NEVER MATERIALIZED AS RAIN SUGGESTING A COOLER THAN EXPECTED WET-              
 BULB PROFILE. LOOKS LIKE ALL AREAS WILL TURN TO SNOW BEFORE ALL IS             
 SAID AND DONE...INCLUDING THE LEWISTON AREA. MOST ACCUMULATIONS OF             
 SNOW SHOULD RANGE FROM 1-2 INCHES...HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED             
 TO PICK UP SOME SPOTTY 3 INCH REPORTS OVER THE PALOUSE AND THE                 
 CENTRAL IDAHO PANHANDLE...BUT DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BE WIDESPREAD                
 ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A SNOW ADVISORY.                                             
 OTHER UPDATE WAS TO RID THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NE MTNS AND                  
 EASTERN COLUMBIA BASIN AS WINDS HAVE ALREADY PEAKED THERE. OTHER               
 ZONES TO FOLLOW AT 1 AM AS SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE PACKING GENERALLY                
 WEAKER THAN ADVISORY WINDS AT THIS TIME. FX                                    
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...WINDS AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE                  
 DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO                
 MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS CHANGING FROM SOUTHWEST TO MORE OF A               
 WESTERLY COMPONENT. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG                
 THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWEST TO THE BLUES AS SNOW                 
 SHOWERS MAY REDUCE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. OTHERWISE VFR                    
 CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH 21Z. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING                 
 INTO THE AREA AFTER 21Z WED WILL RESULT IN LOWERING CEILINGS AND               
 SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST              
 AREA. ./TOBIN                                                                  
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 SPOKANE        25  27  10  15   1  13 /  10  30  30   0   0   0                
 COEUR D`ALENE  28  29  10  13   2  11 /  10  30  30   0   0   0                
 PULLMAN        30  31  11  17   3  13 /  90  20  30  20   0   0                
 LEWISTON       34  36  18  23   9  19 /  70  20  30  20   0   0                
 COLVILLE       24  27   5  13  -3  13 /  20  20  20   0   0   0                
 SANDPOINT      27  28   9  13  -4  11 /  20  30  20   0   0   0                
 KELLOGG        26  27   5  11  -1  11 /  90  50  30  10   0   0                
 MOSES LAKE     30  33  11  20   5  17 /  10  10  20   0   0   0                
 WENATCHEE      27  31  12  15   4  15 /  10  20  20   0   0   0                
 OMAK           24  27   2   8  -2   9 /  10  20  20   0   0   0                
 &&                                                                             
 .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 ID...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM PST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR COEUR                 
      D`ALENE AREA...IDAHO PALOUSE...LEWIS AND SOUTHERN NEZ PERCE               
      COUNTIES...LEWISTON AREA.                                                 
      SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR           
      LEWIS AND SOUTHERN NEZ PERCE COUNTIES.                                    
 WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM PST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LOWER                 
      GARFIELD AND ASOTIN COUNTIES...SPOKANE AREA...WASHINGTON                  
      PALOUSE.                                                                  
      SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR           
      NORTHEAST BLUE MOUNTAINS.                                                 
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> wa                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                          
 917 PM CST THU JAN 11 2007                                                     
 .UPDATE...SOME LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE HAS AFFECTED SOUTHWEST                   
 CORNER OF WI AND SMALL PART OF ADJACENT NORTHEAST IOWA ZONES THIS              
 EVENING. THIS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE ADVANCING ALONG SURFACE                 
 FRONT...WHICH WAS STILL LITERALLY CRAWLING ACROSS SOUTHWEST                    
 CORNER OF WI. IN ADDITION...AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPED IN MOIST                    
 BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LIGHT WINDS IN THIS AREA.                                  
 LATEST RUC INDICATED FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ON                
 THE 290K SURFACE...AS WELL AS Q-G CONVERGENCE...WAS ON THE WANE.               
 THIS WAS CORROBORATED BY DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION OVER                        
 AFOREMENTIONED PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.                                      
 DATA BASE HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCORPORATE LATEST PRECIPITATION                 
 TRENDS...WHICH WILL HAVE DRIZZLE AND FOG ENDING BETWEEN 03Z-06Z                
 THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN MOST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.               
 PLAN TO UPDATE ZONES BY 0330Z.                                                 
 &&                                                                             
 .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 WI...NONE.                                                                     
 MN...NONE.                                                                     
 IA...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 THOMPSON                                                                       
</pre> wi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                          
 1107 AM CST THU JAN 11 2007                                                    
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 LATEST 16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING             
 FROM NORTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO NORTHEAST IOWA. TEMPERATURES OUT                 
 AHEAD OF FRONT WELL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S. BEHIND THE FRONT         
 TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S. LATEST 15Z RUC INDICATES              
 SURFACE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA                
 THIS AFTERNOON. 15Z RUC INDICATES SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEAST                   
 KANSAS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG FRONT AND INTO SOUTHERN IOWA BY               
 00Z FRIDAY. BOTH THE 12Z NAM AND 15Z RUC CONTINUE TO INDICATE GOOD LOW         
 LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK VERTICAL MOTION UP TO 750MB BY 21Z ACROSS              
 SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AT 290K                      
 SURFACE. BOTH THE 12Z NAM AND 15Z RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE              
 NO INTRODUCTION OF ICE INTO LOW LEVELS COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES              
 ABOVE FREEZING ALOFT AND AT SURFACE ACROSS SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.             
 PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ALL RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. WILL         
 CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND UPDATE FOR                  
 MORNING WORDING.                                                               
 &&                                                                             
 .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 WI...NONE.                                                                     
 MN...NONE.                                                                     
 IA...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 DTJ                                                                            
</pre> wi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                 
 320 PM CST WED JAN 10 2007                                                     
 .DISCUSSION...FOCUS OF FORECAST ON MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT                   
 THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND THREAT OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SCENARIO           
 FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.  SECOND PROBLEM WILL BE DEALT             
 WITH IN EXTENDED DISCUSSION BELOW.                                             
 STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS BEGUN WHICH WILL LAST INTO THURSDAY              
 AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. CURRENT MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS           
 ASSOCIATED WITH INITIAL SURGE THINNING AND PUSHING EASTWARD. CLOUD             
 EDGE LINES UP WELL WITH LOWER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ON RUC            
 290 THETA SURFACE...WHICH CLEARS OUT TO THE EAST RAPIDLY THRU                  
 REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE               
 LOWER 30S IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND TO NEAR 30 IN THE EAST.               
 EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO SLIP A FEW DEGREES THIS EVENING MOST                    
 AREAS...BUT THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SURFACE WINDS SHOULD             
 KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK MOST OF THE NIGHT.  COLUMN MOISTURE                 
 INCREASES RAPIDLY ON THURSDAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO               
 OVER ONE HALF INCH.  BOTH GFS AND NAM DEPICT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER            
 FAR SOUTHWEST EJECTING NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS LATER                  
 THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.  SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING REMAINS QUITE WEAK AS            
 DEPICTED BY LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FROM 850-700 THROUGH                    
 500-300MB ON BOTH SHORT TERM MODELS...AS APPEARS SHORT WAVE BEGINS             
 TO SHEAR OUT IT RACES NORTHEAST.  295 THETA SURFACE SHOWS                      
 CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS LOWERING TO LESS THAN 10MB LATER THURSDAY           
 AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HOWEVER ISENTROPIC OMEGA REMAINS WEAK.  WAS            
 TEETERING ON LOWERING POPS IN SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE                   
 CATEGORICAL NOW RUNNING BUT WL LEAVE ALONE FOR NOW AS FORCING NOT              
 VERY IMPRESSIVE...AND LITTLE FORCING FROM FRONTEGENETICAL EFFECTS.             
 HOWEVER LATEST SHORT TERM ENSEMBLE FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH             
 PERCENTAGES FOR MEASURING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RAPIDLY DIMINISHING              
 TREND ON FRIDAY.                                                               
 BOTH GFS AND NAM NOW SHOWING MUCH WARMER LOW LEVEL THERMAL STRUCTURE           
 LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...SO TRENDED MORE TOWARD RAIN FOR                   
 THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MIXTURE IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE LOW LEVEL                   
 THICKNESSES CRITICAL.  NEEDED TO KEEP MIXTURE GOING INTO FRIDAY MOST           
 AREAS AS SOUNDINGS SHOWING FEW IF ANY ICE CRYSTALS FALLING INTO                
 CLOUD TOP.  FORCING SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY                
 NIGHT WITH LULL EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.  HOWEVER FEW FLURRIES                    
 LINGERING IN EAST ON SATURDAY AS DELTA-T INCREASES TO 12 DEGREES               
 WITH WEAK NORTH TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW SETTING UP.                        
 TWO DISTINCT CAMPS HAVE FORMED CONCERNING EJECTING SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY           
 INTO MONDAY.  GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON AMPLIFYING             
 LONG WAVE TROF DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY IN EXTENDED           
 PERIOD.  LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF GFS SHOWING GOOD CONSISTENCY ON PAIR             
 OF UPSTREAM KICKERS RESULTING IN EJECTION OF UPPER LOW OVER                    
 SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ON SATURDAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY                  
 MONDAY. MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE SHOWING 60 PERCENT AND HIGHER                    
 LIKELIHOOD OF ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN             
 SUNDAY NIGHT.  WHILE GFS AND CANADIAN SHOW DEEPENING BUT PROGRESSIVE           
 SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS VICINITY SUNDAY NIGHT...UKMT AND ECMWF KEY ON             
 WEAKER SYSTEM MOVING ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE DURING THIS SAME PERIOD.            
 DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH OF SYSTEM...TIMING BETWEEN ALL                 
 EXTENDED GUIDANCE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT.  WITH BAROCLINIC ZONE SET           
 UP ACROSS EASTERN IOWA INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN                    
 ILLINOIS...AND DEEPER AVAILABLE MOISTURE...SEE NO PROBLEM IN BUMPING           
 UP POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY FOR AT LEAST ONE PERIOD...AND CARRY HIGH            
 CHANCE POPS INTO MONDAY ACCOUNTING FOR POSSIBLE SLOWER EJECTION.               
 ALSO... POTENTIAL PERIOD OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DEVELOPING OVER                 
 SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY COULD             
 RESULT IN SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW COVER AS SPECIFIC HUMIDITY BETWEEN            
 3 AND 4 GRAMS ON SUNDAY WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING AND STRONGER               
 UPGLIDE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING.  HENCE POSSIBLE              
 SNOWCOVER ACROSS MUCH OF REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT WILL GREATLY                   
 INFLUENCE TEMPERATURES FOR LATER PERIODS.  MAY BE FLIRTING WITH ZERO           
 BY TUESDAY NIGHT SOME AREAS.                                                   
 5 DAY MEAN 500MB HEIGHT/ANOMOLY SHOWING TRANSITION PERIOD TO MORE              
 SEASONAL WEATHER OVER NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  AMPLIFICATION OF LONG WAVE           
 TROUGH OVER WESTERN CONUS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH LARGE NEGATIVE                
 HEIGHT ANOMOLY EXCEEDING 200 METERS...SPREADS EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL            
 CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  NEGATIVE HEIGHTS EXCEEDING 100 METERS               
 SPREADS INTO WISCONSIN...AND IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF             
 NEXT WEEK.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                       
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 MBK                                                                            
</pre> wi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                         
 310 AM EST FRI JAN 12 2007                                                     
 .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...COASTAL TROF HANGING STRONG OFF           
 THE CHS CWFA SHORE THIS MRNG AS EVIDENCED BY CONVERGING STREAMLINES            
 ON MSAS ANALYSIS AND BUOYS WITH SE WINDS WHILE SHORELINE OBS ARE NE.           
 TROF WILL HAVE A BIT OF A STRUGGLE LIFTING N AND AWAY FROM THE AREA            
 THIS MRNG WITH STRONG HIGH PRES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST...AND THIS              
 WILL HELP KEEP A FAIRLY DECENT MIDLVL CLOUD DECK IN PLACE THRU MOST            
 OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWS MOCLR SKIES FOR INLAND               
 SITES WHICH MATCH SFC OBS...CLOUD COVER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL           
 SLOWLY SPREAD INLAND AND COMBINE WITH LATE MRNG/EARLY AFTN CU                  
 DEVELOPMENT TO KEEP AT LEAST PTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE. THE ONLY              
 SHOT AT PRECIP TDA WILL BE ALONG THE BEAUFORT-COLLETON-CHARLESTON              
 COAST WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE AND MODEST LIFT WITHIN THE TROF ALONG              
 WITH A SPOT VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL CONVERGE TDA. IF ANY PRECIP OCCURS           
 IT WILL BE RATHER LIGHT...BUT JUST ENOUGH TO INCLUDE 20 POPS FOR               
 ALONG THE COAST. DESPITE THE ANTICIPATED THICKER CLOUD COVER... SW             
 TO W UPR FLOW TO THE W OF THE CWFA AND AN UPR LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER            
 THE AREA WILL ALLOW THE WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE...FORCING MAX                
 TEMPS TO ARND 70 DEGREES.                                                      
 SKIES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY TNGT INTO SAT AS THE TROF            
 APPEARS TO MORE DISSIPATE RATHER THAN LIFT NWD. LACK OF GOOD                   
 CONVERGENCE AND LESS MOISTURE IN THE 1000-500MB COLUMN SHOULD                  
 PREVENT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW SO WILL KEEP THE             
 FCST DRY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD TNGT AND TMRW WITH THE UPR LVL                
 RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EWD AND DEEPER SWLY FLOW TAKING HOLD. MIN TEMPS            
 TNGT WILL DROP TO ARND 50 DEGREES WITH MAX TEMPS ON SAT RISING TO              
 THE MID 70S.                                                                   
 SIMILAR STORY SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING FURTHER            
 INTO THE ATLC WITH SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED WELL IN THE ATLC EXTENDING           
 WWD OVER THE SE CONUS COAST. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE SLIGHTLY...           
 REACHING THE MID 50S FOR MIN TEMPS SAT NIGHT WITH MAX TEMPS ON SUN             
 RISING INTO THE UPR 70S...MAKING 80 DEGREE READINGS NOT OUT OF THE             
 QUESTION.                                                                      
 &&                                                                             
 .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODELS STILL LOOK ON              
 TRACK FOR A LOW PRES CENTER TO MOVE FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE OH            
 VLY SUN AND SUN NIGHT...WITH A TRAILING CDFNT TO MOVE ACRS TX AND              
 INTO THE LWR MISS VLY. THIS FNT WILL DRAG ACRS THE GULF COAST STATES           
 MON AND MON NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY MOVE ACRS THE SE STATES TUE AND TUE            
 NIGHT. STILL SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...           
 SO WILL LEAVE POPS CAPPED IN THE CHC CATEGORY. THE FNT THEN LOOKS TO           
 STALL JUST S AND E OF THE AREA WED AND WED NIGHT WHICH MAY KEEP                
 CLOUDS AND PRECIP IN THE AREA A BIT LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED. A                 
 SECONDARY CDFNT WILL THEN SWING THRU THE AREA THU WHICH WILL BRING A           
 NOTICEABLY COOLER AIRMASS TO THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH            
 TIMING ISSUES MAKING CONFIDENCE RATHER LOW...HAVE LEFT THE EXTENDED            
 PORTION ALONE AND WILL LET A FULL MODEL AND HPC SLATE DURING DAY               
 SHIFT DETERMINE THE OUTCOME OF THE EXTENDED.                                   
 &&                                                                             
 .MARINE...A SHARP COASTAL TROF REMAINS PINNED ACROSS THE NEARSHORE             
 WTRS THIS MRNG. THE 12/08Z OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THE TROF AXIS                  
 EXTENDED FROM SAINT SIMMONS TO ABT 20 NM E OF THE CHARLESTON HARBOR            
 ENTRANCE TO PSN OFF THE SE NC COAST. THE GFS/NAM BOTH INITIALIZED              
 THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE COASTAL TROF POORLY AND ARE STILL             
 WAY TOO QUICK IN MOVING IT INLAND TDA AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS FARTHER              
 OFF THE MID-ATLC COAST. ONLY THE 12/03Z RUC SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD               
 HANDLE ON THE MESO-SCALE SITUATION AND WL BE CLOSELY FOLLOWED FOR              
 THE NXT 6 HRS OR SO. PLAN TO KEEP SOLID NE WNDS GOING FOR MUCH OF              
 THE MRNG ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WTRS THEN GRADUALLY VEER WNDS E/SE               
 THROUGH THE AFTN. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THERE IS A REAL                      
 POSSIBILITY THAT WNDS MAY REMAIN NE WELL INTO THE AFTN ESP ACROSS              
 THE SC WTRS UNTIL THE COASTAL TROF BECOMES OVERWHELMED BY THE INCRG            
 SLY SYNOPTIC FLOW AND DISSIPATES. SE WNDS WL PREVAIL ACROSS THE GA             
 OFFSHORE WTRS TDA WITH THE COASTAL TROF HOLDING JUST W OF AMZ374.              
 THE PRES GRADIENT REMAINS PINCHED ALONG CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST THIS           
 MRNG WHERE WNDS ARE SOLIDLY 15 KT WITH OCNL GUSTS TO 20 KT PER                 
 CARO-COOP AND C-MAN OBSERVATIONS. XPCT WNDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH                 
 THROUGH THE MRNG BUT WL NEED TO BREAK OFF THE WTRS N OF EDISTO BEACH           
 TO INITIALIZE SLGTLY HIGHER WNDS. SEAS WL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE              
 3-4 FT RANGE ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WTRS TDA BUT WL HOLD IN THE 4-6              
 RANGE IN THE GA OFFSHORE WTRS WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WL BE               
 MAINTAINED INTO THE AFTN.                                                      
 SLY WNDS WL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD WITH THE              
 MARINE AREA REMAINING ON THE WRN FRINGES OF ATLC HIGH PRES. A CDFNT            
 IS FCST TO PUSH THROUGH THE WTRS ERLY NXT WEEK.                                
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION /06Z-06Z/...AN EXTENSIVE AMOUNT OF STRATOCU MOVING                   
 INLAND FROM THE ATLC WL IMPACT KCHS AND KSAV FOR MUCH OF THE MRNG.             
 DESPITE THIS CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE MVFR THRESHOLDS...HOLDING                
 AROUND 4000-5000 FT. MAY SEE SOME OF THE STRATOCU SCATTER OUT LTR              
 THIS MRNG. WE MAY NEED TO REEVALUATE THIS WITH THE 12Z TAF CYCLE AS            
 SOME OF THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CIGS MAY HOLD WELL INTO THE           
 AFTN ESP AT KCHS.                                                              
 &&                                                                             
 .CHS WATCHES/WARNING ADVISORIES...                                             
 GA...NONE.                                                                     
 SC...NONE.                                                                     
 MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM FOR AMZ374.                           
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 JPC/ST                                                                         
</pre> ga                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                         
 330 AM CST FRI JAN 12 2007                                                     
 .SYNOPSIS...                                                                   
 ARCTIC BOUNDARY NOW THROUGH STATE AS OF 03Z WITH STRONG PUSH OF COLD           
 AIR INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MILD AIR IN THE 50S CONTINUES SOUTH OF           
 THE FRONT WITH SUBZERO TEMPS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I94 IN THE           
 DAKOTAS. STRONG ARCTIC HIGH BUILDING INTO EASTERN MT ATTM WITH                 
 GREATEST PRESSURE RISES JUST BEHIND BOUNDARY IN EASTERN NEBRASKA AND           
 KANSAS. IA REMAINS SHROUDED IN LOW STRATUS EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NW               
 COUNTIES ATTM. A FEW FLURRIES REPORTED OVER SOUTHWEST SECTIONS TOO.            
 UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS SECONDARY FRONTAL FEATURE OVER NORTHERN MN            
 ALONG LEADING EDGE OF DEEPEST COLD AIR. ONLY SLIGHT REFLECTION                 
 CURRENTLY SEEN AT SFC. MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE THE EXTENT OF            
 SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE LOW STRATUS. CURRENT 11-3MU SHOWS SOME               
 SOUTHWARD DRIFT BUT NOT MUCH. LARGER SCALE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY                 
 STILL SHOWS WESTERN TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH WITH MULTIPLE WAVES AT THE            
 BASE OF THE TROUGH THOUGH SOME WEAKENING OF ENERGY ONGOING ATTM.               
 .SHORT TERM (TODAY...SUN NIGHT)...MODELS IN SOME AGREEMENT TODAY TO            
 BEGIN BREAKING UP CLOUDS AS WE HEAD INTO THE MORNING TO AFTERNOON              
 HOURS. NAM12 AND RUC MODELS ARE MORE ADAMANT ABOUT HOLDING ONTO THE            
 CLOUD COVER WHILE NAM/GFS PREFER TO BREAK THINGS UP A BIT. CLOUD               
 TRENDS SUPPORT SOME PC SKIES LATER THIS MORNING THOUGH MOS GUIDANCE            
 STILL HOLDS ONTO CLOUD COVER. INCREASING WINDS ALOFT WITH                      
 APPROACHING JET MAXES WILL LIKELY INCREASE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER             
 IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING EVEN IF BREAKS OCCUR THROUGH EARLY                    
 AFTERNOON. BEFORE THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH EJECTS NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY           
 INTO EARLY MONDAY THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW MINOR RIPPLES IN THE              
 FLOW. MODELS ATTEMPTING TO RESOLVE THEM WITH SOME DIFFICULTY BUT THE           
 GFS PICKS UP ON ONE OVERNIGHT TNT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.                 
 SOUNDINGS SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFT WITH FLURRIES OR OR LIGHT                
 FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE TNT WITH NAM SOUNDINGS DRYING OUT FASTER             
 THAN THE GFS SOUNDINGS. WITH MAIN WAVE NOW COMING INTO PLAY LATER IN           
 DAY ON SUNDAY...AM HOLDING OFF ON GREATER QPF AND SNOWFALL FOR THAT            
 PERIOD AS QG FORCING ARRIVES TOWARD EVENING. AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH             
 LIFTS OVER THE STATE...DEFORMATION ZONE FORMS ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM           
 WHICH SHOULD HELP PROLONG SNOWFALL INTO THE NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.            
 BLOWING SNOW STILL APPEARS TO BE A PROBLEM WITH COLD TEMPS AND                 
 LIGHTER FLUFFY VARIETY EXPECTED. CURRENTLY EURO/GFS AND GEM SEEM TO            
 HAVE THE BETTER HANDLE ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW.                  
 PROBLEM REMAINS THE AMT OF QPF WITH THE SYSTEM WHICH VARIES FROM               
 ABOUT A HALF INCH WITH THE GFS TO NEARLY THREE QUARTERS WITH THE               
 GEM. WITH TEMPS IN THE TEENS THROUGH THE BEST PERIOD OF                        
 SNOWFALL...HIGH SNOW TO WATER RATIOS EVEN .30 TO .40 WILL PROVIDE              
 FOR AMTS OVER 6 INCHES. WITH UNCERTAINTY AS TO DETAILS OF PATH AND             
 QPF...DONT FEEL CONFIDENT ISSUING A WATCH YET...BUT IF THE NEXT 2              
 RUNS CONFIRM THE PRESENT TRENDS...WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE NECESSARY             
 LATER SUNDAY INTO THE NIGHT HOURS. SNOW CONTINUES INTO MONDAY                  
 MORNING WITH SOME BLOWING.                                                     
 .EXTENDED (MON...THUR)...COLD WEATHER TO FOLLOW WITH LITTLE IF ANY             
 WARM UP UNTIL MID WEEK. MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER ARCTIC SHOT BY THE              
 END OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. CERTAINLY THE COLDEST TEMPS IN QUITE SOME           
 TIME WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR TO BELOW ZERO MON NIGHT/TUES NIGHT               
 OVER SNOW COVERED AREAS ESPECIALLY. OF COURSE...ALL DEPENDS ON DEPTH           
 OF SNOWPACK AND STORM THIS WEEKEND.                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE                                        
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 REV                                                                            
</pre> ia                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                            
 321 AM CST FRI JAN 12 2007                                                     
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE PRECIPITATION              
 TYPE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND HOW MUCH ACCUMULATION WILL TAKE              
 PLACE.                                                                         
 TODAY:                                                                         
 LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING THE COLD ARCTIC AIR CONTINUING TO              
 PLUNGE ITS WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES HAVE NOW                
 DROPPED WELL INTO THE TEENS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES            
 FLIRTING WITH THE FREEZING MARK IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THESE                     
 TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TUMBLE AS THE MORNING WEARS ON. THE              
 NEXT CONCERN IS SOME PRECIPITATION TRYING TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN           
 OKLAHOMA. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING               
 THROUGH THAT REGION WHICH IS DISPLAYED ON THE 305K THETA SURFACE.              
 THIS AREA OF LIFT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY MID             
 MORNING WHICH COULD BRING SOME ICY CONDITIONS TO AREAS MAINLY EAST             
 OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. QPF AMOUNTS ARE QUESTIONABLE AT THIS                   
 POINT...BUT I WOULD NOT SURPRISED IF SOME FOLKS SEE A TENTH TO TWO             
 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN...BUT IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE FOR THE GROUND           
 TEMPERATURES TO COOL OFF BEFORE ANY SIGNIFICANT ICING HAPPENS. THE             
 NAM-WRF SOLUTION IS EVEN SHOWING SOME LIFT DEVELOP DURING THE                  
 AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF           
 PRECIPITATION. RIGHT NOW...THIS LOOKS LIKE A FREEZING RAIN SITUATION           
 DUE TO SUCH WARM AIR ALOFT. AT FIRST GLANCE...WE FELT CONFIDENT                
 ENOUGH TO REMOVE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH             
 CENTRAL KANSAS. HOWEVER...BASED ON THE LATEST RUC/NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS            
 THEY ARE ADVERTISING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKING WHICH WILL INCREASE            
 THE ISENTROPIC LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE WILL GO AHEAD AND                 
 MENTION A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE               
 TURNPIKE WHILE AREAS WEST OF THE TURNPIKE WE WILL KEEP THE WINTER              
 WEATHER ADVISORY GOING THROUGH 00Z.                                            
 TONIGHT:                                                                       
 WE ARE PLANNING ON KEEPING THE WINTER STORM WATCH GOING FOR NOW                
 SINCE THERE IS SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE PERTURBATIONS IN                     
 SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE NAM IS PICKING UP ON ANOTHER WAVE MOVING             
 THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WHILE THE GFS/UKMET ARE NOT                  
 SHOWING MUCH SUPPORT IN THIS. WE ARE GOING TO PLAY IT SAFE FOR NOW             
 SINCE THERE IS SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. IF              
 ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP THEN WE COULD SEE MORE MIXED PRECIPITATION               
 DEVELOPING MAINLY IN CENTRAL KANSAS DUE TO COLDER AIR ALOFT WITH               
 MORE FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE.                           
 SATURDAY-SUNDAY:                                                               
 LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP IS SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUING             
 TO DIG. THE LATEST GFS AND UKMET ARE TENDING TO SLOW DOWN THE                  
 POSITION OF THIS TROF TOWARDS SUNDAY. THIS WILL TEND TO FAVOR MORE             
 IN THE WAY OF FREEZING RAIN WITH PERIODS OF SLEET ACROSS SOUTH                 
 CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH SUNDAY. CENTRAL KANSAS COULD              
 STILL SEE SOME SNOW ON SUNDAY...BUT AMOUNTS ARE STILL TOO DIFFICULT            
 TO TELL AT THIS JUNCTURE.                                                      
 MONDAY-TUESDAY:                                                                
 THIS UPPER LEVEL TROF IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER OUR AREA DURING               
 THESE TWO DAYS WHICH WILL KEEP THINGS UNSEASONABLY COLD BUT DRY.               
 COX                                                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 WICHITA-KICT    22  15  22  19 /  30  60  70  80                               
 HUTCHINSON      19  14  20  16 /  30  60  70  80                               
 NEWTON          21  14  21  19 /  30  60  70  80                               
 ELDORADO        23  16  23  18 /  40  60  70  80                               
 WINFIELD-KWLD   25  18  25  19 /  40  60  70  80                               
 RUSSELL         15  10  14  10 /  20  60  70  80                               
 GREAT BEND      15  11  16  13 /  20  60  70  80                               
 SALINA          17  14  16  15 /  20  60  70  80                               
 MCPHERSON       19  13  18  16 /  20  60  70  80                               
 COFFEYVILLE     32  23  26  23 /  80  60  70  80                               
 CHANUTE         29  21  25  21 /  70  60  70  80                               
 IOLA            28  20  25  21 /  70  60  70  80                               
 PARSONS-KPPF    30  22  26  22 /  80  60  70  80                               
 &&                                                                             
 .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ053-               
 069>072-093>096-098>100.                                                       
 WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON                  
 FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.                        
 WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ051-              
 052-067-068-082-083-091-092.                                                   
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> ks                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                         
 1005 AM EST FRI JAN 12 2007                                                    
 .SHORT TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...HIGH PRES CNTRD OVER THE WRN ATLC               
 JUST E OF THE NC OUTER BANKS THIS MORNING WITH A COASTAL TROUGH                
 HANGING TOUGH OVER THE SC/GA COASTAL WATERS. EARLY VIS SAT IMAGERY             
 INDICATES SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING E OVER THE AREA AND PLENTY OF             
 STRATOCU OFF THE COAST TRYING TO WORK WWD. WITH A DECENT CU FIELD              
 XPCTD THIS AFTN...THINK THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS THAN NOT THROUGH             
 THE DAY...SO PARTLY SUNNY SKY COVER SHUD COVER IT. PLAN TO REMOVE              
 THE SLGT CHC POPS FOR OUR NRN SC COUNTIES AS WE PREFER TO JUST                 
 MENTION ISO SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND 70 DEG AWAY FROM THE            
 COAST...WITH TEMPS REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AT THE COAST              
 DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS AND ZFP                
 NEEDED. UPDATED ZFP OUT SHORTLY.                                               
 &&                                                                             
 .MARINE...PREFER TO FOLLOW THE RUC DEPICTION OF THE COASTAL TROUGH             
 AS THE GFS AND WRF CONTINUE TO INITIALIZE POORLY. THE LATEST OBS               
 INDICATE WINDS AOB 15 KT WITH SEAS AOB 5 FT...HIGHEST OVER THE OUTER           
 GA WATERS. TOUGH CALL ON THE SCA FOR AMZ374 AS SEAS HAVE BEEN                  
 FLIP-FLOPPING AROUND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A WHILE AND WILL LIKELY             
 CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE AFTN WITH THE PESKY COASTAL TROUGH IN            
 PLACE. WILL CONTINUE THE THINKING OF KEEPING SOLID NE WINDS GOING              
 FOR THE MORNING ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS...THEN GRADUALLY VEER              
 WINDS E/SE THROUGH THE AFTN. E TO SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE             
 GA OFFSHORE WATERS TDA WITH THE COASTAL TROUGH HOLDING JUST W OF               
 AMZ374. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE ACROSS THE              
 NEARSHORE WATERS TDA WITH 4-6 FT IN THE OUTER GA WATERS.                       
 OVERALL...NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE CWF WITH THE MID-MORNING              
 UPDATE.                                                                        
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION /12Z-12Z/...CONDITIONS XPCTD TO BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD            
 ALTHO BKN CIGS ARE A GOOD BET ON/OFF THROUGH THE DAY...ESPCLY AT               
 KCHS.                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .CHS WATCHES/WARNING ADVISORIES...                                             
 GA...NONE.                                                                     
 SC...NONE.                                                                     
 MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM FOR AMZ374.                           
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 RJB                                                                            
</pre> ga                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                            
 1035 AM EST FRI JAN 12 2007                                                    
 .UPDATE...RUC AND LAPS ANALYSIS SHOW THAT THE SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT            
 IS PRETTY MUCH THROUGH THE MOST OF N LOWER. THE NW FLOW IN E UPPER             
 AND SFC TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR            
 SHORELINE AT WHITEFISH POINT AND GRAND MARAIS SHOWING THAT THE COLD            
 AIR IS BEGINNING TO OOZE INTO THE REGION. MID 30S IS THE RULE OVER             
 MOST N LOWER WITH THE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO FALL DURING THE                 
 AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO SHIFT NORTH IN NW LOWER WITH RAWS            
 SITE BEAR(SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NEAR EMPIRE) AND GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT            
 SHOWING NORTH WINDS AND MOST OF THE ASOS/AWOS SITES SHOWING NW                 
 WINDS. INTERIOR SITES AND NE LOWER SITES ARE EITHER CALM OR WINDS              
 LIGHT SW. HIGHS HAVE BEEN REACHED OR WILL BE REACHED SOON, SO THE              
 MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES FALLING DURING THE DAY           
 AND THE CHANCE FOR SNOW AS THE COLDER 850 AIR, AND SPECIFICALLY THE            
 -10C LINE, ADVANCING INTO THE E UPPER AND N LOWER FOR THE AFTERNOON.           
 AS OF 15Z RUC40 ANALYSIS/1HR FORECAST -10C WAS THROUGH MOST OF                 
 WHITEFISH BAY TO CURTIS LINE AND ADVANCING STEADILY. 12Z NAM IS MUCH           
 SLOWER WITH THE -10C AIR AROUND MONTREAL RIVER, ONTARIO TO GRAND               
 MARAIS, MI LINE. WITH KERY ALREADY SHOWING SNOW/FLURRIES WOULD THINK           
 THAT THE 14Z RUC40 IS CLOSER TO REALITY. SO THINK THAT THE CURRENT             
 FORECAST TRANSITIONS OF SNOW/DRIZZLE ARE CURRENTLY GOOD, BUT SFC               
 TEMPERATURES NEED TO BE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY. ZONES OUT SHORTLY.                  
 LUTZ                                                                           
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 400 AM EST FRI JAN 12 2007                           
 COLD FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING EXTENDED FROM NEAR THE SAULT...SW                
 ACROSS LAKE MI AND SE WI...TO MISSOURI. RADAR AND SURFACE OBS                  
 SUPPORT DRIZZLE AND PATCHY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS FORECAST AREA. AS                 
 EXPECTED...FREEZING PRECIP HAS HELD OFF THUS FAR AS SURFACE TEMPS              
 HAVE HELD ABOVE FREEZING IN ADVANCE OF FRONT. FRONT IS FORECAST TO             
 DROP SE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...REACHING SE LOWER MI BY LATE THIS            
 AFTERNOON. AS COLDER AIR FILTERS SEWD BEHIND FRONT...FORECAST                  
 CONCERNS WILL INCLUDE PRECIP TYPE/COVERAGE THROUGH TONIGHT.                    
 TODAY AND TONIGHT...IR/WV LOOP SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF                      
 DEEP/LAYERED MOISTURE UPSTREAM...SUGGESTING THAT ANY PRECIP THAT               
 FALLS TODAY WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH             
 NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS...WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE GENERALLY CONFINED             
 TO TEMPS OF -8C AND WARMER. CAA PATTERN WILL SUPPORT PROGRESSIVELY             
 COOLER AIR FROM NW TO SE DURING THE DAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT                  
 DRIZZLE OR PATCHY VERY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NRN LOWER...WITH SOME                 
 PATCHY LIGHT MIXED PRECIP IN ERN UPPER EARLY. ANTICIPATE A GRADUAL             
 TRANSITION TO SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.                  
 HOWEVER...WILL RETAIN SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN             
 SE AREAS...WHERE COOLER AIR ARRIVES LAST. COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO              
 OVERSPREAD REGION TONIGHT...WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND                
 -12C. N/NW WINDS WILL SUPPORT SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN NW LOWER AND            
 E UPPER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE RIDGE DROPPING S                  
 THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR...ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW...INVERSION HEIGHTS NEAR            
 3 KFT...AND 850-700 MB RH HOVERING AROUND 60%...DON/T EXPECT MUCH              
 ACCUMULATION.                                                                  
 SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL DROP TO VICINITY OF OHIO RIVER AND STALL.           
 LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN COUPLED WITH 850 MB TEMPS             
 OF -12 TO -14C WILL SUPPORT MORNING FLURRIES EARLY NEAR LAKES                  
 MICHIGAN...HURON...AND SUPERIOR. HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE RIDGE                  
 DROPPING INTO NRN LOWER BY AFTERNOON...EXPECT FLURRIES TO END WITH             
 PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON.                               
 SUNDAY...STALLED FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL S OF REGION...AS WAVES OF              
 ENERGY PUSH ENEWD ALONG FRONT SPREADING SOME MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL             
 AND SRN LOWER MI. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH THE           
 NRN LAKES AND PROVIDE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR. UPSHOT...              
 EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS              
 AND LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION.                                                
 SMITH                                                                          
 SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MOST POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT                  
 SNOWFALL OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AT             
 THIS TIME...NOT INCLINED TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE ONGOING                    
 FORECAST. MODELS HAVE ACTUALLY BEEN DIVERGING THE PAST FEW RUNS...SO           
 CANNOT PIN DOWN A MORE DEFINITIVE STORM TRACK AS OF THIS TIME. AS              
 MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS... THE TRACK OF A DEVELOPING STORM           
 SYSTEM WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE AS TO HOW MUCH SNOW NORTHERN MICHIGAN              
 SEES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 00Z GFS CONTINUES TO TREND FURTHER SOUTH             
 WITH THE STORM TRACK...TAKING THE SYSTEM FROM CENTRAL KENTUCKY...              
 THROUGH MARYLAND...THEN OFF INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC.                        
 MEANWHILE...THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF KEEPS A NORTHERLY TRACK FROM             
 SOUTHERN MISSOURI...THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO...AND INTO NORTHERN NEW              
 ENGLAND. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD YIELD LESS WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL...              
 WITH MORE EMPHASIS ON LAKE EFFECT...WHILE THE ECMWF WOULD PROVIDE              
 MORE OF A SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST              
 LOWER MICHIGAN...WHERE SNOWFALL WOULD BE ENHANCED WITH 850MB TEMPS             
 STARTING OFF AROUND -8C...THEN FALLING RAPIDLY.  MODELS SEEM TO                
 AGREE ON KEEPING A LAKE INDUCED TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO               
 TUESDAY. NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PROVIDE LAKE EFFECT SNOW                 
 SHOWERS TO LOCATIONS ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON                    
 COASTLINES. OTHERWISE...THE TREND IN OVERALL SNOWFALL WILL BE ON THE           
 DECLINE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN                     
 MICHIGAN.                                                                      
 KAS                                                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                           
 557 AM CST FRI JAN 12 2007                                                     
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 TOUGH FCST FOR FIRST MID SHIFT. ALL IN ALL THE PREVIOUS FCST WAS               
 TRENDING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT ICING                    
 EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THEN               
 SLEET AND SOME SNOW ON THE TAIL END. THE MODELS STILL APPEAR TO BE             
 HAVING GREAT DIFFICULTY WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR               
 ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT. THE FRONT HAS MOVED THRU KUIN                
 AND KCOU IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO AND THE FREEZING LINE LAGS THE                 
 FRONT BY ONLY 75-80 NM. VERY MILD AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE               
 DISPLACED THROUGHOUT THE DAY BY THE COLD ARCTIC AIR AS IT MOVES                
 SEWD WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT             
 SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE ST LOUIS AREA 15-17Z AND EXIT THE CWA NEAR             
 00Z. THE RUC ACTUALLY HAS THE BEST HANDLE WITH THE SURFACE                     
 TEMPERATURES AND THEY WERE LARGELY FOLLOWED THRU 18Z OR SO THEN                
 SOME EXTRAPOLATION WAS USED THRU 00Z TNGT. THE FREEZING LINE                   
 SHOULD RESIDE 25 NM OR SO NW OF STL AT 00Z. FROM THAT POINT ON THE             
 EXACT PUSH OF COLD AIR IS MORE QUESTIONABLE AS MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE            
 HAS THE FREEZING LINE WAVERING ON A NE/SW AXIS BI-SECTING OR JUST              
 SE OF KSTL THRU SUNDAY AFTERNOON...IMPACTED BY SURFACE WAVES                   
 TRAVELLING ALONG THE FRONT.                                                    
 PCPN LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD COME IN 3 DISTINCT WAVES WITH THIS                   
 PROLONGED STORM SYSTEM. MUCH OF THE PCPN WITH THE FIRST 2 ROUNDS               
 WITH BE VIA LIFT ASSOCD WITH WAA/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE MODULATED BY               
 WK MID LVL DISTURBANCES. THE LAST ROUND WILL BE ASSOCD WITH THE                
 LIFTING MID-UPR SYSTEM.                                                        
 PCPN WITH THE FIRST ROUND IS IN THE DEVELOPMENT STAGE ATTM AND WE              
 SHOULD CONT TO SEE RAIN DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING BECOMING                   
 FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE SRN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA BY AFTERNOON.               
 RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING SHOULD BE FOCUSED ACROSS MUCH IN THE SAME             
 AREA GRADUALLY SHUNTING SE OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT ROUND SHOULD THEN               
 GET GOING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THE FINAL ROUND ON SUNDAY INTO                
 SUNDAY EVENING. WITH THE FREEZING AIR POISED JUST NW OF STL BY 00Z             
 TNGT I UPGRADED THE WATCH TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR KCOU AND               
 KUIN AREAS BEGINNING LATER THIS MORNING WITH FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED.           
 KEEP THE WATCH GOING FOR THE CORIDOOR THRU THE STL METRO AREA DUE              
 TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE WAVERING FREEZING LINE. FOR THE ENTIRE             
 3 DAY EVENT COULD SEE ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE-HALF TO THREE-                  
 QUARTERS OF AN INCH JUST SOUTH OF AN AXIS FROM KCOU TO KIJX.                   
 TREES AND POWER LINES WILL BE MOST VULNERABLE. STILL ANTICIPATING              
 SOME DECENT 2-3 INCHES RAINS ACROSS SE MO AND SRN IL WHICH MAY                 
 PROMPT SOME SMALL STREAM AND RIVER FLOODING...AS SUCH HAVE KEPT                
 THE ESF GOING.                                                                 
 GLASS                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 FOR THE 12Z TAFS...ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS JUST PASSED THROUGH UIN               
 AND COU AND SHOULD CONT MOVG SEWD THRU STL AND SUS ARND 18Z WITH               
 THE SFC WND VEERING ARND TO THE NW BHND THE CDFNT. STRATUS CLOUDS              
 ALONG WITH FOG HAVE DVLPD IN UIN AND COU BHND THE CDFNT. THIS LOW              
 LVL CLOUDINESS SHOULD ADVCT SEWD INTO THE STL METRO AREA LTR THIS              
 MRNG INTO THE AFTN HRS AND WILL FCST FALLING CEILINGS FOR STL AND              
 SUS...DROPPING TO ARND 1000 FT BY AFTN. A SFC WV WILL DVLP ALNG                
 THE SEWD MOVG CDFNT BRINGING RAIN TO THE CWA THIS AFTN AND TGT.                
 LOOKING AT THE MDL FCST SOUNDINGS THE TEMPERATURE SHOULD DROP TO               
 32 DEGREES F OR BLW IN UIN AND COU THIS AFTN CHANGING THE RAIN TO              
 FREEZING RAIN. THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY WHEN THE RAIN WILL CHANGE             
 OVER TO FREEZING RAIN IN THE STL METRO AREA AS MDLS HAVE THE SFC               
 TEMPERATURE DROPPING CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK TGT. WILL MENTION              
 A TEMPO GRP OF FREEZING RAIN IN STL AND SUS LT TGT AT THE END OF               
 THE TAF FCST PERIOD.                                                           
 GKS                                                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 MO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR           
      CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-JEFFERSON-ST. CHARLES-ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS               
      CITY-WASHINGTON.                                                          
      WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST               
      SUNDAY NIGHT FOR GASCONADE-LINCOLN-MONTGOMERY-OSAGE-WARREN.               
      WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CST               
      SUNDAY NIGHT FOR AUDRAIN-BOONE-CALLAWAY-COLE-KNOX-LEWIS-                  
      MARION-MONITEAU-MONROE-PIKE-RALLS-SHELBY.                                 
 IL...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR           
      CALHOUN IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-                    
      MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY IL-ST. CLAIR IL.                                     
      WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CST               
      SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL.                               
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 WFO LSX                                                                        
</pre> mo                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV                                          
 305 AM PST FRI JAN 12 2007                                                     
 .SYNOPSIS...A COLD UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN           
 GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT TODAY AND SATURDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL            
 OCCUR OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WITH HEAVIER SNOW BANDS OCCURRING OVER           
 LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL            
 THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.                                        
 &&                                                                             
 .SHORT TERM...SO MUCH TO TALK ABOUT THIS MORNING. WILL HIT THE HIGH            
 POINTS HERE...THE INTERESTED READER MAY WANT TO REFER TO THE                   
 RNOWSWVEF...RNOSPSVEF...AND RNOHWOVEF PRODUCTS FOR MORE DETAILS. IN            
 LINCOLN COUNTY...SIGNIFICANT SNOW BEGAN A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN               
 EXPECTED. THE SHERIFFS OFFICE IN PIOCHE REPORTED SIX INCHES ON THE             
 GROUND AT 1 AM...SO UPGRADED THE SNOW ADVISORY TO A HEAVY SNOW                 
 WARNING. ALSO MOVED THE EXPIRATION TIME BACK FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO             
 10 PM THIS EVENING AS IT APPEARS THE SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL BE OVER             
 BY THEN. IN CLARK COUNTY...THE COLD FRONT ROLLED THROUGH LAS VEGAS             
 BETWEEN 2 AND 3 AM THIS MORNING. POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS WERE                
 FALLING AS FAR SOUTH AS INDIAN SPRINGS...BUT WERE NOT MAKING IT                
 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY. THE WINTER STORM               
 WATCH IS A REAL CONUNDRUM. NAM...GFS...AND RUC MODELS ARE HINTING              
 MORE STRONGLY AT A DRY SLOT AFFECTING THE INTERSTATE 15 CORRIDOR               
 THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THEY ALSO STILL SHOW SOME UPWARD MOTION              
 THROUGH A SATURATED LAYER IN OR NEAR THE -12C TO -18C "SWEET SPOT"             
 FOR DENDRITIC SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH. THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY THAN              
 NORMAL WITH THIS FORECAST...BUT THE MIDPOINT OF THE POSSIBLE RANGE             
 OF OUTCOMES FALLS INTO THE SNOW ADVISORY CATEGORY...SO UPGRADED THE            
 WATCH TO AN ADVISORY. THE SNOW MAY BE MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE AS THE            
 COLD UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. IN MOHAVE COUNTY...THE MODELS ALL               
 SUGGEST BETTER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY SOUTHEAST OF THE POSSIBLE DRY             
 SLOT. PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD ALREADY ISSUED A SNOW ADVISORY THERE...AND            
 THIS STILL LOOKS GOOD. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF           
 SATURDAY...THEN THE BEST WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR CLEAR SKIES COMES           
 ON SUNDAY MORNING. BIG QUESTION AFFECTING HOW COLD IT WILL GET IS              
 WHETHER OR NOT THE NORTH WINDS WILL RELAX BY THEN. IF THE WINDS                
 RELAX...TEMPERATURES WILL REALLY BOTTOM OUT...BUT IF THE WINDS ARE             
 STILL BLOWING THE WIND CHILLS WILL BE WORSE...SO EITHER WAY IT WILL            
 BE DANGEROUS TO UNSHELTERED FOLKS. SPS AND HWO HAVE BEEN/WILL BE               
 ISSUED FOR THIS. THE MOST RECENT EVENTS SIMILAR TO THIS ONE AT                 
 MCCARRAN AIRPORT WERE A LOW OF 23F ON JANUARY 31 2002...AND A LOW OF           
 20F ON DECEMBER 22 1998. IF MCCARRAN REACHES 23F AS FORECAST ON                
 SUNDAY MORNING...MANY PARTS OF THE VALLEY WILL BE IN THE TEENS. WRAP           
 THOSE PIPES...DRIP THOSE FAUCETS...BRING THOSE PLANTS AND PETS                 
 INSIDE...ET CETERA.                                                            
 .LONG TERM...SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CWA MONDAY WILL BRING A              
 REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR...GUSTY WINDS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER           
 AND A FEW CLOUDS. EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN WELL EAST OF              
 THE AREA AND WILL KEEP THE CURRENT ZERO POPS IN THE FORECAST.                  
 RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY BUT EXPECT TEMPERATURES           
 TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND DAILY MORNING                    
 INVERSIONS. GFS IS SHOWING A LOW TO MOVE DOWN THE CA COAST AND                 
 EVENTUALLY PINCH OFF THE RIDGE AND FORM A REX BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN           
 STATES. THE GFS/DGEX/ECMWF ARE HINTING AT THE LOW EVENTUALLY TURNING           
 EAST AND PUSHING INTO THE CWA. RIGHT NOW THE MODELS ARE SHOWING                
 LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND MAINLY JUST AN                 
 INCREASE IN CLOUDS. HAVE NOT INTRODUCED ANY POPS INTO THE FORECAST             
 AND WILL WAIT FOR FUTURE MODEL RUNS.                                           
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEVADA WITH           
 LIGHT SNOW REPORTED AT DRA. PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY WORK SOUTH               
 TODAY WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY.             
 CIGS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO BELOW 5000 FEET WITH VSBYS BELOW 5SM...BUT            
 DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BE A WIDESPREAD AND PROLONGED EVENT. HEAVIER               
 SNOWS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE MORMON MESA AND PEACH SPRINGS CORRIDORS           
 WHERE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL.                                     
 AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.                              
 &&                                                                             
 .VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 .NV...HEAVY SNOW WARNING ZONE 15 THROUGH 10 PM.                                
       SNOW ADVISORY ZONES 16 20 AND 22 2 PM THROUGH 10 PM.                     
 .AZ...SNOW ADVISORY ZONES 1 AND 3 11 AM THROUGH 11 PM.                         
 .CA...NONE.                                                                    
 $$                                                                             
 MORGAN/GORELOW                                                                 
 HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS                                                    
</pre> nv                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                         
 935 AM CST FRI JAN 12 2007                                                     
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE COLD FRONT AND THE ONGOING                           
 PRECIPITATION HAVE ISSUED AN ICE STORM WARNING FOR HASKELL AND THROCKMORTON    
 COUNTIES FROM 18Z TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.                                        
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 AM CST FRI JAN 12 2007/                        
 UPDATE...                                                                      
 DESPITE A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY HAVE EXTENDED WINTER STORM WATCH TO               
 THE SOUTH TO INCLUDE STERLING...COKE...RUNNELS ...COLEMAN AND                  
 BROWN COUNTIES. THESE COUNTIES ARE ON THE BORDER OF WHERE THE                  
 FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR.                       
 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CST FRI JAN 12 2007/                         
 AVIATION...                                                                    
 A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR                  
 ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE               
 TO REDEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL                
 CONTINUE TO DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY TODAY. A STRONG COLD                   
 FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE ABILENE TERMINAL SHORTLY             
 AFTER 00Z. IN ADDITION...EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TODAY. EXPECT FREEZING              
 RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY AFTER MIDNIGHT                 
 TONIGHT AS COLD ARCTIC AIR PUSHES SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO OR BELOW             
 THE FREEZING MARK. FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL THEN                 
 CONTINUE ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY THROUGH 12Z TOMORROW MORNING.                  
 23/HUBER                                                                       
 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CST FRI JAN 12 2007/                         
 DISCUSSION...                                                                  
 A COMPLICATED FORECAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE                
 ARCTIC FRONT CONTINUES TO CRASH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.                   
 LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS ARCTIC FRONT LOCATED FROM KTUL TO KOKC               
 TO KCDS. EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE BIG COUNTRY REACHING                
 AN I-20 LINE BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. RUC/NAM SOLUTIONS SEEM TO HAVE               
 THE BEST HANDLE ON THE ARCTIC FRONT WITH THE GFS INITIALIZING                  
 SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH THE COLD AIR. GFS CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER                  
 WITH THE FRONTAL PUSH AS WELL. THE MAIN CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE              
 HOW MUCH PROGRESS THE FRONT MAKES BEFORE STALLING AHEAD OF THE                 
 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO PULL OUT OF THE SOUTHERN                
 ROCKIES.                                                                       
 BOTH 00Z AND 06Z NAM/GFS RUNS BRING THE FRONT INTO THE CONCHO                  
 VALLEY/HEARTLAND FRI NIGHT. THINK THE FRONT MAY STALL SOUTH OF A               
 KSJT TO KBBD LINE BY SAT MORNING. FRONT WILL BE MAIN FORCING FOR               
 PRECIPITATION DURING THE WEEKEND WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER              
 THE FRONTAL SURFACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. SHOULD SEE                    
 CONTINUAL FREEZING DRIZZLE WHERE TEMPS NEAR THE SFC ARE COLD                   
 ENOUGH. OTHERWISE...FRONT SHOULD BE ON THE MOVE MORE ON SUNDAY AS              
 THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE PLAINS. STRONG                       
 FRONTOGENETIC LIFT WILL BE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT AS 850MB FRONT                   
 FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. WILL CARRY POPS THROUGH THIS                
 TIME PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE                   
 REGION MON AND TUE.                                                            
 WHILE PRECIP CHANCES LOOK GOOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND...OTHER                     
 FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIP TYPE. EXPECT ISOLATED                        
 THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND POSSIBLY LAST                 
 INTO THIS EVENING FOR THE BIG COUNTRY AS THERE MAY BE SOME                     
 ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION. OTHERWISE THUNDERSTORM                    
 ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE FRONT                    
 THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL LIKELY SEE FREEZING TEMPS WORK THEIR                 
 WAY INTO THE BIG COUNTRY MAINLY ALONG I-20 NORTHWARD TONIGHT INTO              
 SAT MORNING. TEMPS MAY WARM A LITTLE TO ABOVE FREEZING ON SAT SO               
 MAY SEE A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN DURING THE DAY. THREAT OF              
 FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE SAT NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PULLS              
 INTO THE PLAINS WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IN THE JET. MAIN                     
 QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR SOUTH FREEZING TEMPS WILL EXTEND. FOR                 
 NOW WILL KEEP FREEZING TEMPS CONFINED TO THE BIG COUNTRY AND KEEP              
 MOST OF THE CONCHO VALLEY AND HEARTLAND NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING                 
 WITH PRECIP TYPE BEING RAIN. TEMPS ON SUNDAY SHOULD DROP DURING                
 THE DAY WITH PRECIP CHANCES DROPPING OFF INTO MONDAY.                          
 A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR THE BIG COUNTRY BUT COULD               
 BE UPGRADED. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL                    
 REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IF FREEZING TEMPS                  
 MOVE INTO THE AREA FASTER THAN EXPECTED. THIS MAY BE POSSIBLE                  
 CONSIDERING THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT BEING FASTER THAN WHAT THE                    
 MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING.                                                      
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 ABILENE  62  29  36  28 /  50  60  60  70                                      
 SAN ANGELO  67  50  51  38 /  50  50  60  70                                   
 JUNCTION  67  59  62  56 /  60  60  70  70                                     
 &&                                                                             
 .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON                  
 FOR BROWN-CALLAHAN-COKE-COLEMAN-FISHER-JONES-NOLAN-RUNNELS-                    
 SHACKELFORD-STERLING-TAYLOR.                                                   
 ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR HASKELL-THROCKMORTON.              
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 28/99                                                                          
</pre> tx                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                         
 904 AM CST FRI JAN 12 2007                                                     
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 DESPITE A LOT OF UNCERTAINITY HAVE EXTENDED WINTER STORM WATCH TO              
 THE SOUTH TO INCLUDE STERLING...COKE...RUNNELS ...COLEMAN AND                  
 BROWN COUNTIES. THESE COUNTIES ARE ON THE BORDER OF WHERE THE                  
 FREESING DRIZZLE AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR.                       
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CST FRI JAN 12 2007/                        
 AVIATION...                                                                    
 A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR                  
 ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE               
 TO REDEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL                
 CONTINUE TO DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY TODAY. A STRONG COLD                   
 FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE ABILENE TERMINAL SHORTLY             
 AFTER 00Z. IN ADDITION...EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TODAY. EXPECT FREEZING              
 RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY AFTER MIDNIGHT                 
 TONIGHT AS COLD ARCTIC AIR PUSHES SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO OR BELOW             
 THE FREEZING MARK. FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL THEN                 
 CONTINUE ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY THROUGH 12Z TOMORROW MORNING.                  
 23/HUBER                                                                       
 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CST FRI JAN 12 2007/                         
 DISCUSSION...                                                                  
 A COMPLICATED FORECAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE                
 ARCTIC FRONT CONTINUES TO CRASH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.                   
 LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS ARCTIC FRONT LOCATED FROM KTUL TO KOKC               
 TO KCDS. EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE BIG COUNTRY REACHING                
 AN I-20 LINE BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. RUC/NAM SOLUTIONS SEEM TO HAVE               
 THE BEST HANDLE ON THE ARCTIC FRONT WITH THE GFS INITIALIZING                  
 SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH THE COLD AIR. GFS CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER                  
 WITH THE FRONTAL PUSH AS WELL. THE MAIN CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE              
 HOW MUCH PROGRESS THE FRONT MAKES BEFORE STALLING AHEAD OF THE                 
 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO PULL OUT OF THE SOUTHERN                
 ROCKIES.                                                                       
 BOTH 00Z AND 06Z NAM/GFS RUNS BRING THE FRONT INTO THE CONCHO                  
 VALLEY/HEARTLAND FRI NIGHT. THINK THE FRONT MAY STALL SOUTH OF A               
 KSJT TO KBBD LINE BY SAT MORNING. FRONT WILL BE MAIN FORCING FOR               
 PRECIPITATION DURING THE WEEKEND WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER              
 THE FRONTAL SURFACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. SHOULD SEE                    
 CONTINUAL FREEZING DRIZZLE WHERE TEMPS NEAR THE SFC ARE COLD                   
 ENOUGH. OTHERWISE...FRONT SHOULD BE ON THE MOVE MORE ON SUNDAY AS              
 THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE PLAINS. STRONG                       
 FRONTOGENETIC LIFT WILL BE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT AS 850MB FRONT                   
 FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. WILL CARRY POPS THROUGH THIS                
 TIME PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE                   
 REGION MON AND TUE.                                                            
 WHILE PRECIP CHANCES LOOK GOOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND...OTHER                     
 FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIP TYPE. EXPECT ISOLATED                        
 THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND POSSIBLY LAST                 
 INTO THIS EVENING FOR THE BIG COUNTRY AS THERE MAY BE SOME                     
 ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION. OTHERWISE THUNDERSTORM                    
 ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE FRONT                    
 THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL LIKELY SEE FREEZING TEMPS WORK THEIR                 
 WAY INTO THE BIG COUNTRY MAINLY ALONG I-20 NORTHWARD TONIGHT INTO              
 SAT MORNING. TEMPS MAY WARM A LITTLE TO ABOVE FREEZING ON SAT SO               
 MAY SEE A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN DURING THE DAY. THREAT OF              
 FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE SAT NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PULLS              
 INTO THE PLAINS WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IN THE JET. MAIN                     
 QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR SOUTH FREEZING TEMPS WILL EXTEND. FOR                 
 NOW WILL KEEP FREEZING TEMPS CONFINED TO THE BIG COUNTRY AND KEEP              
 MOST OF THE CONCHO VALLEY AND HEARTLAND NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING                 
 WITH PRECIP TYPE BEING RAIN. TEMPS ON SUNDAY SHOULD DROP DURING                
 THE DAY WITH PRECIP CHANCES DROPPING OFF INTO MONDAY.                          
 A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR THE BIG COUNTRY BUT COULD               
 BE UPGRADED. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL                    
 REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IF FREEZING TEMPS                  
 MOVE INTO THE AREA FASTER THAN EXPECTED. THIS MAY BE POSSIBLE                  
 CONSIDERING THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT BEING FASTER THAN WHAT THE                    
 MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING.                                                      
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 ABILENE  62  29  36  28 /  50  60  60  70                                      
 SAN ANGELO  67  50  51  38 /  50  50  60  70                                   
 JUNCTION  67  59  62  56 /  60  60  70  70                                     
 &&                                                                             
 .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON                  
 FOR BROWN-CALLAHAN-COKE-COLEMAN-FISHER-HASKELL-JONES-NOLAN-                    
 RUNNELS-SHACKELFORD-STERLING-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON.                              
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 28/99                                                                          
</pre> tx                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                         
 649 AM CST FRI JAN 12 2007                                                     
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR                  
 ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE               
 TO REDEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL                
 CONTINUE TO DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY TODAY. A STRONG COLD                   
 FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE ABILENE TERMINAL SHORTLY             
 AFTER 00Z. IN ADDITION...EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TODAY. EXPECT FREEZING              
 RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY AFTER MIDNIGHT                 
 TONIGHT AS COLD ARCTIC AIR PUSHES SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO OR BELOW             
 THE FREEZING MARK. FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL THEN                 
 CONTINUE ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY THROUGH 12Z TOMORROW MORNING.                  
 23/HUBER                                                                       
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CST FRI JAN 12 2007/                        
 DISCUSSION...                                                                  
 A COMPLICATED FORECAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE                
 ARCTIC FRONT CONTINUES TO CRASH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.                   
 LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS ARCTIC FRONT LOCATED FROM KTUL TO KOKC               
 TO KCDS. EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE BIG COUNTRY REACHING                
 AN I-20 LINE BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. RUC/NAM SOLUTIONS SEEM TO HAVE               
 THE BEST HANDLE ON THE ARCTIC FRONT WITH THE GFS INITIALIZING                  
 SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH THE COLD AIR. GFS CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER                  
 WITH THE FRONTAL PUSH AS WELL. THE MAIN CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE              
 HOW MUCH PROGRESS THE FRONT MAKES BEFORE STALLING AHEAD OF THE                 
 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO PULL OUT OF THE SOUTHERN                
 ROCKIES.                                                                       
 BOTH 00Z AND 06Z NAM/GFS RUNS BRING THE FRONT INTO THE CONCHO                  
 VALLEY/HEARTLAND FRI NIGHT. THINK THE FRONT MAY STALL SOUTH OF A               
 KSJT TO KBBD LINE BY SAT MORNING. FRONT WILL BE MAIN FORCING FOR               
 PRECIPITATION DURING THE WEEKEND WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER              
 THE FRONTAL SURFACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. SHOULD SEE                    
 CONTINUAL FREEZING DRIZZLE WHERE TEMPS NEAR THE SFC ARE COLD                   
 ENOUGH. OTHERWISE...FRONT SHOULD BE ON THE MOVE MORE ON SUNDAY AS              
 THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE PLAINS. STRONG                       
 FRONTOGENETIC LIFT WILL BE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT AS 850MB FRONT                   
 FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. WILL CARRY POPS THROUGH THIS                
 TIME PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE                   
 REGION MON AND TUE.                                                            
 WHILE PRECIP CHANCES LOOK GOOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND...OTHER                     
 FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIP TYPE. EXPECT ISOLATED                        
 THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND POSSIBLY LAST                 
 INTO THIS EVENING FOR THE BIG COUNTRY AS THERE MAY BE SOME                     
 ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION. OTHERWISE THUNDERSTORM                    
 ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE FRONT                    
 THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL LIKELY SEE FREEZING TEMPS WORK THEIR                 
 WAY INTO THE BIG COUNTRY MAINLY ALONG I-20 NORTHWARD TONIGHT INTO              
 SAT MORNING. TEMPS MAY WARM A LITTLE TO ABOVE FREEZING ON SAT SO               
 MAY SEE A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN DURING THE DAY. THREAT OF              
 FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE SAT NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PULLS              
 INTO THE PLAINS WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IN THE JET. MAIN                     
 QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR SOUTH FREEZING TEMPS WILL EXTEND. FOR                 
 NOW WILL KEEP FREEZING TEMPS CONFINED TO THE BIG COUNTRY AND KEEP              
 MOST OF THE CONCHO VALLEY AND HEARTLAND NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING                 
 WITH PRECIP TYPE BEING RAIN. TEMPS ON SUNDAY SHOULD DROP DURING                
 THE DAY WITH PRECIP CHANCES DROPPING OFF INTO MONDAY.                          
 A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR THE BIG COUNTRY BUT COULD               
 BE UPGRADED. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL                    
 REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IF FREEZING TEMPS                  
 MOVE INTO THE AREA FASTER THAN EXPECTED. THIS MAY BE POSSIBLE                  
 CONSIDERING THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT BEING FASTER THAN WHAT THE                    
 MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING.                                                      
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 ABILENE  62  29  36  28 /  50  60  60  70                                      
 SAN ANGELO  67  50  51  38 /  50  50  60  70                                   
 JUNCTION  67  59  62  56 /  60  60  70  70                                     
 &&                                                                             
 .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON                  
 FOR CALLAHAN-FISHER-HASKELL-JONES-NOLAN-SHACKELFORD-TAYLOR-                    
 THROCKMORTON.                                                                  
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 23/HUBER                                                                       
</pre> tx                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                         
 435 AM CST FRI JAN 12 2007                                                     
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 A COMPLICATED FORECAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE                
 ARCTIC FRONT CONTINUES TO CRASH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.                   
 LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS ARCTIC FRONT LOCATED FROM KTUL TO KOKC               
 TO KCDS. EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE BIG COUNTRY REACHING                
 AN I-20 LINE BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. RUC/NAM SOLUTIONS SEEM TO HAVE               
 THE BEST HANDLE ON THE ARCTIC FRONT WITH THE GFS INITIALIZING                  
 SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH THE COLD AIR. GFS CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER                  
 WITH THE FRONTAL PUSH AS WELL. THE MAIN CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE              
 HOW MUCH PROGRESS THE FRONT MAKES BEFORE STALLING AHEAD OF THE                 
 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO PULL OUT OF THE SOUTHERN                
 ROCKIES.                                                                       
 BOTH 00Z AND 06Z NAM/GFS RUNS BRING THE FRONT INTO THE CONCHO                  
 VALLEY/HEARTLAND FRI NIGHT. THINK THE FRONT MAY STALL SOUTH OF A               
 KSJT TO KBBD LINE BY SAT MORNING. FRONT WILL BE MAIN FORCING FOR               
 PRECIPITATION DURING THE WEEKEND WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER              
 THE FRONTAL SURFACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. SHOULD SEE                    
 CONTINUAL FREEZING DRIZZLE WHERE TEMPS NEAR THE SFC ARE COLD                   
 ENOUGH. OTHERWISE...FRONT SHOULD BE ON THE MOVE MORE ON SUNDAY AS              
 THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE PLAINS. STRONG                       
 FRONTOGENETIC LIFT WILL BE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT AS 850MB FRONT                   
 FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. WILL CARRY POPS THROUGH THIS                
 TIME PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE                   
 REGION MON AND TUE.                                                            
 WHILE PRECIP CHANCES LOOK GOOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND...OTHER                     
 FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIP TYPE. EXPECT ISOLATED                        
 THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND POSSIBLY LAST                 
 INTO THIS EVENING FOR THE BIG COUNTRY AS THERE MAY BE SOME                     
 ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION. OTHERWISE THUNDERSTORM                    
 ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE FRONT                    
 THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL LIKELY SEE FREEZING TEMPS WORK THEIR                 
 WAY INTO THE BIG COUNTRY MAINLY ALONG I-20 NORTHWARD TONIGHT INTO              
 SAT MORNING. TEMPS MAY WARM A LITTLE TO ABOVE FREEZING ON SAT SO               
 MAY SEE A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN DURING THE DAY. THREAT OF              
 FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE SAT NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PULLS              
 INTO THE PLAINS WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IN THE JET. MAIN                     
 QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR SOUTH FREEZING TEMPS WILL EXTEND. FOR                 
 NOW WILL KEEP FREEZING TEMPS CONFINED TO THE BIG COUNTRY AND KEEP              
 MOST OF THE CONCHO VALLEY AND HEARTLAND NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING                 
 WITH PRECIP TYPE BEING RAIN. TEMPS ON SUNDAY SHOULD DROP DURING                
 THE DAY WITH PRECIP CHANCES DROPPING OFF INTO MONDAY.                          
 A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR THE BIG COUNTRY BUT COULD               
 BE UPGRADED. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL                    
 REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IF FREEZING TEMPS                  
 MOVE INTO THE AREA FASTER THAN EXPECTED. THIS MAY BE POSSIBLE                  
 CONSIDERING THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT BEING FASTER THAN WHAT THE                    
 MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING.                                                      
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 ABILENE  62  29  36  28 /  50  60  60  70                                      
 SAN ANGELO  67  50  51  38 /  50  50  60  70                                   
 JUNCTION  67  59  62  56 /  60  60  70  70                                     
 &&                                                                             
 .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON                  
 FOR CALLAHAN-FISHER-HASKELL-JONES-NOLAN-SHACKELFORD-TAYLOR-                    
 THROCKMORTON.                                                                  
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 10                                                                             
</pre> tx                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                         
 422 PM EST FRI JAN 12 2007                                                     
 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...PRETTY MUCH STATUS              
 QUO AS THE SFC MAP IS CONCERNED WITH HIGH PRES CNTRD TO OUR NE OVER            
 THE WRN ATLC WITH RIDGING EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SERN CONUS.             
 MEANWHILE...A COASTAL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OFF THE SC/GA COASTS.            
 STRATOCU ASSCD WITH THE TROUGH HAS HAD A HARD TIME MAKING IT ONSHORE           
 AND TEMPS THIS AFTN HAVE SOARED INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE            
 AREA. SHUD SEE THE TROUGH DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES              
 FARTHER E. SKIES WILL END UP BEING PCLDY AND WITH LGT WINDS...CUD              
 SEE SOME PATCHY FOG BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FCST ATTM. LOWS           
 WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO MID 50S ALONG THE COAST.               
 OUTSIDE OF A DECENT CU FIELD AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS...XPCT ENOUGH SUN            
 TOMORROW TO ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S...A GOOD 15 DEG              
 ABOVE NORMAL. A MILD S TO SW FLOW TOMORROW NIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPS A             
 DEG OR TWO WARMER THAN TONIGHT...RANGING FROM AROUND 50 DEG INLAND             
 TO THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST...STILL ABOUT 15 DEG ABOVE                    
 NORMAL.                                                                        
 &&                                                                             
 .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...STRONG RIDGING BOTH SURFACE AND           
 ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA SUN INTO MON...THEN WILL GIVE              
 WAY TO NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT TUE. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS TO           
 PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWFA AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY IN THE WEEK...WITH            
 POSSIBLE 80 DEGREE TEMPS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS A FEW                  
 SECTIONS OF THE SRN CWFA. A LARGE TEMP GRADIENT TO PREVAIL BOTH                
 AFTNS...WITH COOLING SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES.                                    
 WILL KEEP WATCH ON POSSIBLE COASTAL SHRA WITH STRENGTHENING AND                
 DEEPENING S-SW FLOW SUN NIGHT/MON...BUT FOR NOW FEEL THAT STEERING             
 FLOW WILL KEEP ANY SHRA OVER THE ATLC. POPS WILL THEN INCREASE INTO            
 THE CHANCE RANGE ON TUE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.                              
 FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SE OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT/WED...AND WILL                 
 LIKELY STALL ACROSS THE SW ATLC AND FL...AS HIGH PRES SLOWLY BUILDS            
 FROM THE N AND W. HOWEVER...OVERRUNNING OF MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT           
 AND ISENTROPIC LIFTING WILL RESULT IN PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND LINGERING           
 RAINS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.                                           
 AT THIS POINT THERE IS AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE THAT THE COLDER AIR             
 MAY RESULT IN SOMETHING OTHER THAN RAIN ACROSS SOME OF THE NRN MOST            
 AREAS...BUT THERE IS WAY TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME TO GO               
 WITH ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAIN IN THE FCST.                                     
 EVEN SO...COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER AND CAA WILL HOLD TEMPS ON WED            
 DOWN IN THE 40S OR LOWER 50S MOST AREAS.                                       
 DRIER AND EVEN COLDER WX TO MOVE IN LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH POSSIBLE           
 FREEZING TEMPS THU AND FRI MORNING ACROSS INLAND AREAS.                        
 &&                                                                             
 .MARINE...A COASTAL TROUGH LINGERS OFF THE SC/GA COASTS THIS AFTN              
 BUT SHUD FINALLY BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN TONIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH TO THE            
 N AND E SHIFTS FARTHER E. WILL HAVE E TO NE WINDS THE FIRST HALF OF            
 THE NIGHT OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS...VEERING TO E/SE LATE...MORE IN           
 LINE WITH THE RUC WHICH HAS HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE. THE           
 SCA FOR THE OUTER GA WATERS IS STILL AN ISSUE AS SEAS HAVE BEEN 4-5            
 FT AT THE R2 TOWER TDA. THE WNA GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT           
 AT 41008 TONIGHT BUT CANNOT BUY INTO THIS SINCE IT IS BASED ON THE             
 SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS OF THE GFS. PREFER TO CANCEL THE SCA WITH              
 THE AFTN PACKAGE AND REPLACE IT WITH A SCSEC HEADLINE INSTEAD. MAY             
 SEE SOME 6 FT SEAS COME BACK INTO THE PICTURE TOMORROW NIGHT AS A              
 MORE SOLID SLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED BUT WILL NOT BE RAISING THAT           
 HEADLINE ATTM. OTHERWISE...WINDS XPCTD TO REMAIN AOB HEADLINE                  
 CRITERIA THROUGH SAT NIGHT.                                                    
 ATLC RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA SUN AND EARLY MON WILL SHIFT SE AND               
 GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE. THE FRONT           
 WILL SLOWLY MOVE THRU THE AREA DURING TUE AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS           
 FROM THE NW AND N. THE COMBINATION OF CAA AND PINCHED GRADIENT WILL            
 LIKELY RESULT IN AT LEAST SCA HEADLINES IN WAKE OF THE FRONT TUE               
 NIGHT/WED.                                                                     
 DEPENDING UPON IF WINDS ARE MORE N OR NE DURING THIS TIME WILL HELP            
 DETERMINE HOW HIGH SEAS WILL REACH...AND I MAY HAVE GONE A LITTLE              
 CONSERVATIVE GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT FETCH. EVEN                   
 SO...SEAS WILL BUILD TO AT LEAST 5 OR 6 FT WITHIN 20 NM OF THE                 
 COAST...AND UP TO 8 OR 9 FT FURTHER OFFSHORE.                                  
 LOCAL SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES WILL BACK WINDS TO SE OR S NEAR THE                
 COAST SUN AND MON AFTN.                                                        
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION /18Z-18Z/...CONDITIONS XPCTD TO BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.           
 MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT BUT AT THIS POINT FELT CHANCES WERE            
 TOO LOW TO MENTION.                                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .CHS WATCHES/WARNING ADVISORIES...                                             
 GA...NONE.                                                                     
 SC...NONE.                                                                     
 MARINE...NONE.                                                                 
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 RJB/33                                                                         
</pre> ga                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                            
 1133 AM CST FRI JAN 12 2007                                                    
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 COLD AIR HAS REALLY SURGED INTO KANSAS OVERNIGHT...AND CONTINUES               
 ITS SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS DURING THE DAY TODAY. LOWEST 3000FT OR              
 SO OF THE SOUNDINGS IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS ARE BELOW -6.6C...THE              
 CRITICAL TEMPERATURE AND DEPTH TO BE ABLE TO GET SNOW CRYSTALS                 
 DESPITE THE WARM AIR ALOFT. THEREFORE...WITH THE TEMPERATURES                  
 EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR FALL A FEW MORE                            
 DEGREES...EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IN THIS REGION TO REMAIN               
 SNOW. FURTHER SOUTHEAST...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECT             
 MORE OF A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...AND MAYBE SOME SNOW             
 MIXED IN AT TIMES. MADE THESE CHANGES IN THE FORECAST AND LOWERED              
 TEMPERATURES TO COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE QUICKER ARCTIC AIR                  
 INTRUSION.                                                                     
 SCHRECK                                                                        
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CST FRI JAN 12 2007/                        
 DISCUSSION...                                                                  
 THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE PRECIPITATION              
 TYPE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND HOW MUCH ACCUMULATION WILL TAKE              
 PLACE.                                                                         
 TODAY:                                                                         
 LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING THE COLD ARCTIC AIR CONTINUING TO              
 PLUNGE ITS WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES HAVE NOW                
 DROPPED WELL INTO THE TEENS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES            
 FLIRTING WITH THE FREEZING MARK IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THESE                     
 TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TUMBLE AS THE MORNING WEARS ON. THE              
 NEXT CONCERN IS SOME PRECIPITATION TRYING TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN           
 OKLAHOMA. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING               
 THROUGH THAT REGION WHICH IS DISPLAYED ON THE 305K THETA SURFACE.              
 THIS AREA OF LIFT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY MID             
 MORNING WHICH COULD BRING SOME ICY CONDITIONS TO AREAS MAINLY EAST             
 OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. QPF AMOUNTS ARE QUESTIONABLE AT THIS                   
 POINT...BUT I WOULD NOT SURPRISED IF SOME FOLKS SEE A TENTH TO TWO             
 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN...BUT IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE FOR THE GROUND           
 TEMPERATURES TO COOL OFF BEFORE ANY SIGNIFICANT ICING HAPPENS. THE             
 NAM-WRF SOLUTION IS EVEN SHOWING SOME LIFT DEVELOP DURING THE                  
 AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF           
 PRECIPITATION. RIGHT NOW...THIS LOOKS LIKE A FREEZING RAIN SITUATION           
 DUE TO SUCH WARM AIR ALOFT. AT FIRST GLANCE...WE FELT CONFIDENT                
 ENOUGH TO REMOVE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH             
 CENTRAL KANSAS. HOWEVER...BASED ON THE LATEST RUC/NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS            
 THEY ARE ADVERTISING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKING WHICH WILL INCREASE            
 THE ISENTROPIC LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE WILL GO AHEAD AND                 
 MENTION A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE               
 TURNPIKE WHILE AREAS WEST OF THE TURNPIKE WE WILL KEEP THE WINTER              
 WEATHER ADVISORY GOING THROUGH 00Z.                                            
 TONIGHT:                                                                       
 WE ARE PLANNING ON KEEPING THE WINTER STORM WATCH GOING FOR NOW                
 SINCE THERE IS SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE PERTURBATIONS IN                     
 SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE NAM IS PICKING UP ON ANOTHER WAVE MOVING             
 THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WHILE THE GFS/UKMET ARE NOT                  
 SHOWING MUCH SUPPORT IN THIS. WE ARE GOING TO PLAY IT SAFE FOR NOW             
 SINCE THERE IS SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. IF              
 ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP THEN WE COULD SEE MORE MIXED PRECIPITATION               
 DEVELOPING MAINLY IN CENTRAL KANSAS DUE TO COLDER AIR ALOFT WITH               
 MORE FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE.                           
 SATURDAY-SUNDAY:                                                               
 LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP IS SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUING             
 TO DIG. THE LATEST GFS AND UKMET ARE TENDING TO SLOW DOWN THE                  
 POSITION OF THIS TROF TOWARDS SUNDAY. THIS WILL TEND TO FAVOR MORE             
 IN THE WAY OF FREEZING RAIN WITH PERIODS OF SLEET ACROSS SOUTH                 
 CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH SUNDAY. CENTRAL KANSAS COULD              
 STILL SEE SOME SNOW ON SUNDAY...BUT AMOUNTS ARE STILL TOO DIFFICULT            
 TO TELL AT THIS JUNCTURE.                                                      
 MONDAY-TUESDAY:                                                                
 THIS UPPER LEVEL TROF IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER OUR AREA DURING               
 THESE TWO DAYS WHICH WILL KEEP THINGS UNSEASONABLY COLD BUT DRY.               
 COX                                                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 WICHITA-KICT    16   9  22  19 /  70  60  70  80                               
 HUTCHINSON      13   8  20  16 /  50  60  70  80                               
 NEWTON          14   8  21  19 /  60  60  70  80                               
 ELDORADO        17  10  22  18 /  80  60  70  80                               
 WINFIELD-KWLD   20  12  25  20 /  90  60  70  80                               
 RUSSELL         11   6  14  11 /  10  60  70  80                               
 GREAT BEND      11   6  16  13 /  10  60  70  80                               
 SALINA          12   7  16  15 /  20  60  70  80                               
 MCPHERSON       13   8  18  16 /  50  60  70  80                               
 COFFEYVILLE     23  14  26  23 / 100  60  70  80                               
 CHANUTE         19  11  25  21 / 100  60  70  80                               
 IOLA            18  11  25  21 / 100  60  70  80                               
 PARSONS-KPPF    21  12  26  22 / 100  60  70  80                               
 &&                                                                             
 .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ071-072-                
 095-096-098>100.                                                               
 WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY                   
 AFTERNOON FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.              
 WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ051-              
 052-067-068-082-083-091-092.                                                   
 FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ053-               
 069-070-093-094.                                                               
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> ks                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                         
 310 PM CST FRI JAN 12 2007                                                     
 ...WINTER RETURNS WITH A VENGEANCE...                                          
 SHORT TERM...                                                                  
 A DIFFICULT FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN ARCTIC AIR MASS              
 MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA. THE CHALLENGES WITH THIS FORECAST ARE              
 HOW FAR SOUTH THE FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AND HOW MUCH               
 WILL ACCUMULATE. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THIS                 
 WEEKEND BUT HOW FAR SOUTH THE ARCTIC FRONT PROGRESSES BEFORE IT                
 STALLS WILL BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO                
 SLOW WITH THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE ARCTIC FRONT...WITH THE             
 RUC/NAM MODELS APPEARING TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE ARCTIC                 
 FRONT. THE FRONT IS ALREADY ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND                        
 TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING. TEMPERATURES ARE AT OR BELOW FREEZING                
 ACROSS THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY AND THE RAIN THAT IS FALLING                   
 ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY WILL CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN AFTER                 
 SUNSET. WITH THE STRONGEST LIFT ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY                   
 MORNING EXPECT THE LARGEST FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS TO OCCUR                
 DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.                                                       
 ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY IN GENERAL EXPECT ICE ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT             
 THROUGH SUNDAY TO BE BETWEEN ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF OF INCH...SOME            
 ISOLATED AREAS COULD SEE ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO ONE INCH.                     
 ACROSS THE HEARTLAND AND CONCHO VALLEY EXPECT LESS ICE ACCUMULATION            
 TO OCCUR WITH TOTALS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY LESS THAN ONE               
 QUARTER OF AN INCH.                                                            
 TEMPERATURES WILL NOT REBOUND QUICKLY SO WHAT ICE THAT ACCUMULATES WILL STAY   
 AROUND THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.                                    
 LONG TERM...                                                                   
 MODELS DIVERGE THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WITH THE GFS SHOWING AN               
 UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE WEST COAST WITH THE MAIN LOBE OF THE             
 UPPER TROUGH DIGGING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHWEST                
 UNDERCUTTING THE ADVANCING WEST COAST RIDGE. GFS EVENTUALLY MERGES             
 THIS FEATURE WITH A WEST COAST TROUGH MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC           
 COAST AND RETROGRADES THE ENTIRE PACKAGE. PREFER THE NAM THAT HAS              
 THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AND            
 THE WEST COAST RIDGE BUILDING EAST INTO THE WESTERN STATES. WITH THIS          
 SCENARIO...PRECIPITATION ENDS QUICKER OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH              
 THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVING EAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH BY              
 MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB SLOWLY THROUGH THE END OF            
 THE WEEK TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE COMING WEEKEND.                     
 PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
 ABILENE  27  32  30  31 /  70  60  70  70                                      
 SAN ANGELO  31  37  32  40 /  60  60  70  70                                   
 JUNCTION  48  53  39  46 /  60  70  70  70                                     
 &&                                                                             
 .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR CALLAHAN-FISHER-                   
 JONES-NOLAN-SHACKELFORD-TAYLOR.                                                
 WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY                        
 AFTERNOON FOR CONCHO-IRION-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-TOM GREEN.                       
 WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY                    
 AFTERNOON FOR BROWN-COKE-COLEMAN-RUNNELS-STERLING.                             
 ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR HASKELL-THROCKMORTON.              
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 28/15                                                                          
</pre> tx