AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV                                                
940 PM PST FRI MAR 7 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
ONGOING SHORT TERM FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE THIS EVENING. HAVE                 
MADE A FEW MINOR EDITS TO CLOUD COVER BASED ON SATELLITE                        
TRENDS...WHICH SHOW AN AREA OF THICK MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ROLLING                   
ACROSS THE CWA ATTM. UPSTREAM RADARS ARE SHOWING A FEW LIGHT                    
SHOWERS ACROSS SRN OREGON...SO WILL CONTINUE LOW CHC POPS IN OUR                
FAR NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT.                                                   
WINDS HAD INCREASED EARLIER ON THE RIDGES AT SLIDE MTN AND SQUAW                
SUMMIT (~40 MPH)...BUT HAVE SINCE DECREASED A BIT. STILL BASED ON               
THE LATEST RUC 700MB WIND FORECASTS...WE SHOULD SEE RIDGE GUSTS                 
PICK BACK UP AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND                   
ASSOC WIND SPEED MAX MOVE INTO THE AREA. WE MAY SEE A PERIOD OF                 
GUSTY WINDS (20-25KTS) NEAR LAKE TAHOE IN THE MORNING. SOMETHING                
TO WATCH. INTO THE WRN NV VALLEYS...IF WE CAN MIX UP TO 700MB ON                
SATURDAY THEN GUSTS MAY BE A BIT HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.                
FORECAST UPDATES OUT BY 10 PM PST.                                              
CS                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM PST FRI MAR 7 2008/                      
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST IS SPREADING                
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA...WITH PERHAPS A FEW MID CLOUDS FAR                  
NORTH. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT NORTH OF A                      
SUSANVILLE TO GERLACH LINE.                                                     
TONIGHT`S GLANCING BLOW SYSTEM WILL KICK THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...            
BRINGING NORTHWEST WINDS AS A COOL SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE                 
GREAT BASIN. THE HIGH WILL KNOCK HIGHS BACK DOWN TO SEASONABLE                  
NORMALS (50S FOR THE LOWER VALLEYS) EVERYWHERE FOR SATURDAY.                    
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN             
TO RAISE HIGHS TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.              
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK GLANCING SYSTEM                
MOVES INTO THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE AND THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL               
BRING THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DOWN TO INTERSTATE 80...WITH A               
CHANCE FAR NORTH. SNYDER                                                        
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...                                           
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN POST FRONTAL AIR MASS ON TUESDAY WILL                   
PRODUCE TEMPS ABOUT 4-8 DEGREES COOLER TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS OF              
UPPER 50S IN MOST VALLEYS ON TUESDAY. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE             
SHORT LIVED AND LIMITED TO THE NORTH ZONES. FLAT RIDGE REBUILDS INTO            
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS AND TEMPS                     
REBOUNDING A FEW DEGREES.                                                       
BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...A PATTERN CHANGE TO COLDER AND WETTER IS              
LOOKING MORE LIKELY AS BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF BUILD A LONGWAVE              
TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST...WITH A FEW OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO             
FAVORING THIS SCENARIO. THE TRANSITION WILL BEGIN ON THURSDAY AS                
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND               
MORE OVERRUNNING MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH                
WHERE A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP. WITH THE COLD AIR MASS STILL NORTH             
OF THE REGION...TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH IMPROVED                  
MIXING...AND REMAIN MILD THURS NIGHT AS WINDS ARE LESS LIKELY TO                
DECOUPLE. THE COOLING TREND SHOULD BECOME MORE NOTICEABLE ON FRIDAY             
AS TROF AND COLD FRONT ARE PROJECTED TO PASS THRU THE REGION WITH               
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING IN THE SIERRA AND PARTS OF WRN NV. BY NEXT            
FRI NIGHT AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW             
WILL INCREASE EVEN IN LOWER VALLEYS. IF THE LATEST ECMWF SHOWING                
OVER-WATER TRAJECTORY IN THE 500 MB FLOW WITH FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS            
AND PLENTY OF COLD UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE...SNOW AMOUNTS COULD BE                
SIGNIFICANT ESPECIALLY IN THE SIERRA. MJD                                       
AVIATION...                                                                     
WEST WIND GUSTS TO 20-25 KT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FOR LEE SIDE VALLEYS            
OF WRN NV WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 06Z TONIGHT...WITH NORTHWEST               
GUSTS NEAR 25 KT ON SATURDAY MAINLY AFT 18Z. GUSTS ON SIERRA RIDGES             
UP TO 60 KT THRU SATURDAY PRODUCING SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY.                
OTHERWISE VFR CIGS/VSBY EXPECTED THRU THIS WEEKEND WITH WDSPRD                  
MID-HI LVL CLOUD COVER DECREASING LATE TONIGHT. MJD                             
&&                                                                              
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NV...NONE.                                                                      
CA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO                                                         
</pre> ca                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
717 AM MDT SUN MAR 9 2008                                                       
.UPDATED...                                                                     
CANCELLED THE FINAL PORTION OF THE SNOW ADVISORY ACROSS THE WET                 
MOUNTAINS...SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS                 
BASED ON DECREASING COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SNOWFALL PER PUB                  
RADAR DATA.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 AM MDT SUN MAR 9 2008/                          
UPDATE...                                                                       
(THIS MORNING)                                                                  
SNOW HAS BEEN QUICKLY WANING ACROSS CHAFFEE AND FREMONT                         
COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. THUS AS ANTICIPATED IN DISCUSSION                    
BELOW...HAVE BEGUN THE PROCESS OF PARING OUT NORTHERN SECTIONS OF               
THE ADVISORY AREA.                                                              
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)                                                             
UPPER LOW BACK OVER NRN AZ/NW NM WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD            
INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN NM BY 00Z MON.  CURRENT RADAR INDICATES SOME              
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ECHOES ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF              
THE SE MTS...MAINLY WETS...SANGRES...AND THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY              
OF FREMONT COUNTY.  MYP HAS BEEN REPORTING +SN OFF AND ON...AND WEB             
CAMS FROM UP THAT WAY SUGGEST A COUPLE INCHES OR SO MAY HAVE                    
ACCUMULATED SINCE AROUND MIDNIGHT.  OVERALL...SYSTEM NOT THAT                   
IMPRESSIVE IN SATELLITE LOOPS.  BEST DYNAMICS/ISENTROPIC LIFT IS                
OCCURRING NOW THROUGH AROUND 15Z...THEN IT WANES QUICKLY THROUGH THE            
LATE MORNING AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHWARD.  DEFORMATION            
BAND APPEARS PRETTY FRAGMENTED AND ILL DEFINED.  WILL MAINTAIN THE              
SNOW ADVISORY FOR MOST AREAS...THOUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHAVE OFF SOME              
OF THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF LAKE AND EASTERN CHAFFEE COUNTIES.  H7              
WINDS DON`T APPEAR ALL THAT STRONG IN EITHER MODEL NOW...NAM OR                 
GFS...SO DON`T THINK WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL               
RECEIVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF HEAVY SNOW...SO WILL ALSO REMOVE THE                 
ADVISORY FOR ZONE 65.  FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE ADVISORY                        
AREA...TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 8 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH              
THE HEAVIEST ACCUMS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WETS AND SANGRES.              
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END BY THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST AREAS AS WEAK                
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.                               
LEE TROF REDEVELOPS TOWARDS DAWN...AND H7 TEMPS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM              
ARE NOT ALL THAT COLD.  MIN TEMPS MAY BE HIT AROUND/BEFORE                      
MIDNIGHT...WITH WESTERLY DRAINAGE FLOW KICKING IN ACROSS THE LOWER              
EASTERN SLOPES AFTER 06Z CAUSING TEMPS TO STAY STEADY...OR EVEN WARM            
SLIGHTLY. -KT                                                                   
LONG TERM...                                                                    
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)                                                       
..ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THIS WEEK...                               
MONDAY...INTERESTING LITTLE WEATHER FEATURE TO DROP SOUTHWARD ON                
THE BACKSIDE OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE                 
GREAT BASIN. THE WEATHER FEATURE...UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK AND                   
ASSOCIATED LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH...IS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN MT PER              
WATER VAPOR AND RUC MODEL UPPER AIR ANALYSES. GFS/ECMWF HAS THIS                
FEATURE DROPPING THROUGH WESTERN CO DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. NAM-               
WRF KIND OF HAS THIS FEATURE...BUT NOT PRINTING OUT MUCH IN THE                 
WAY OF QPF. WEATHER FEATURE SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL                
ROCKIES DURING PEAK HEATING AND INSTABILITY...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATE               
OF 7-8 C/KM WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE                
PRECIPITATION OVER THE MOUNTAINS/HIGH VALLEYS. THE CURRENT                      
FORECAST HAS SOMETHING TO THIS EXTENT...BUT POPS MIGHT NEED TO BE               
BUMPED UP A LITTLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS/HIGH VALLEYS IF FUTURE                    
MODELS CONTINUE THIS TREND.                                                     
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...OVERALL A PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW                  
PATTERN APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE WITH WEATHER FEATURES MOVING                 
RAPIDLY THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. IN GENERAL...TEMPERATURES ARE              
FORECAST TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE MARCH AVERAGE READINGS. THE                 
BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...               
ESPECIALLY THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY AND                
SATURDAY. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MORE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE                         
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS                 
WILL BE LIKELY TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. 17                                     
AVIATION...                                                                     
MVFR/VFR CIGS EXPECTED ACROSS KCOS/KPUB TAF SITES THROUGH THE                   
MORNING...WITH CLEARING SKIES BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  FOR               
THE SOUTHERN MTS/FOOTHILLS/HIGH VALLEYS...WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS               
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS ALONG THE               
EASTERN SLOPES AND HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL              
CONTINUE.  KALS MAY SEE SOME MVFR TO BRIEF IFR UNDER SNOW SHOWERS               
THROUGH THE MORNING.  IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL OF THE              
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOME PERSISTENT ISOLATED             
TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING ALONG THE CONTDVD THROUGH THE              
EVENING. -KT                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
17/17                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
601 AM MDT SUN MAR 9 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
(THIS MORNING)                                                                  
SNOW HAS BEEN QUICKLY WANING ACROSS CHAFFEE AND FREMONT                         
COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. THUS AS ANTICIPATED IN DISCUSSION                    
BELOW...HAVE BEGUN THE PROCESS OF PARING OUT NORTHERN SECTIONS OF               
THE ADVISORY AREA.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)                                                             
UPPER LOW BACK OVER NRN AZ/NW NM WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD            
INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN NM BY 00Z MON.  CURRENT RADAR INDICATES SOME              
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ECHOES ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF              
THE SE MTS...MAINLY WETS...SANGRES...AND THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY              
OF FREMONT COUNTY.  MYP HAS BEEN REPORTING +SN OFF AND ON...AND WEB             
CAMS FROM UP THAT WAY SUGGEST A COUPLE INCHES OR SO MAY HAVE                    
ACCUMULATED SINCE AROUND MIDNIGHT.  OVERALL...SYSTEM NOT THAT                   
IMPRESSIVE IN SATELLITE LOOPS.  BEST DYNAMICS/ISENTROPIC LIFT IS                
OCCURRING NOW THROUGH AROUND 15Z...THEN IT WANES QUICKLY THROUGH THE            
LATE MORNING AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHWARD.  DEFORMATION            
BAND APPEARS PRETTY FRAGMENTED AND ILL DEFINED.  WILL MAINTAIN THE              
SNOW ADVISORY FOR MOST AREAS...THOUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHAVE OFF SOME              
OF THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF LAKE AND EASTERN CHAFFEE COUNTIES.  H7              
WINDS DON`T APPEAR ALL THAT STRONG IN EITHER MODEL NOW...NAM OR                 
GFS...SO DON`T THINK WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL               
RECEIVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF HEAVY SNOW...SO WILL ALSO REMOVE THE                 
ADVISORY FOR ZONE 65.  FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE ADVISORY                        
AREA...TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 8 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH              
THE HEAVIEST ACCUMS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WETS AND SANGRES.              
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END BY THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST AREAS AS WEAK                
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.                               
LEE TROF REDEVELOPS TOWARDS DAWN...AND H7 TEMPS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM              
ARE NOT ALL THAT COLD.  MIN TEMPS MAY BE HIT AROUND/BEFORE                      
MIDNIGHT...WITH WESTERLY DRAINAGE FLOW KICKING IN ACROSS THE LOWER              
EASTERN SLOPES AFTER 06Z CAUSING TEMPS TO STAY STEADY...OR EVEN WARM            
SLIGHTLY. -KT                                                                   
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)                                                       
...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THIS WEEK...                              
MONDAY...INTERESTING LITTLE WEATHER FEATURE TO DROP SOUTHWARD ON                
THE BACKSIDE OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE                 
GREAT BASIN. THE WEATHER FEATURE...UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK AND                   
ASSOCIATED LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH...IS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN MT PER              
WATER VAPOR AND RUC MODEL UPPER AIR ANALYSES. GFS/ECMWF HAS THIS                
FEATURE DROPPING THROUGH WESTERN CO DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. NAM-               
WRF KIND OF HAS THIS FEATURE...BUT NOT PRINTING OUT MUCH IN THE                 
WAY OF QPF. WEATHER FEATURE SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL                
ROCKIES DURING PEAK HEATING AND INSTABILITY...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATE               
OF 7-8 C/KM WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE                
PRECIPITATION OVER THE MOUNTAINS/HIGH VALLEYS. THE CURRENT                      
FORECAST HAS SOMETHING TO THIS EXTENT...BUT POPS MIGHT NEED TO BE               
BUMPED UP A LITTLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS/HIGH VALLEYS IF FUTURE                    
MODELS CONTINUE THIS TREND.                                                     
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...OVERALL A PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW                  
PATTERN APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE WITH WEATHER FEATURES MOVING                 
RAPIDLY THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. IN GENERAL...TEMPERATURES ARE              
FORECAST TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE MARCH AVERAGE READINGS. THE                 
BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...               
ESPECIALLY THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY AND                
SATURDAY. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MORE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE                         
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS                 
WILL BE LIKELY TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. METZE                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MVFR/VFR CIGS EXPECTED ACROSS KCOS/KPUB TAF SITES THROUGH THE                   
MORNING...WITH CLEARING SKIES BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  FOR               
THE SOUTHERN MTS/FOOTHILLS/HIGH VALLEYS...WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS               
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS ALONG THE               
EASTERN SLOPES AND HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL              
CONTINUE.  KALS MAY SEE SOME MVFR TO BRIEF IFR UNDER SNOW SHOWERS               
THROUGH THE MORNING.  IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL OF THE              
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOME PERSISTENT ISOLATED             
TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING ALONG THE CONTDVD THROUGH THE              
EVENING. -KT                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR COZ072>075-078>080-087-                  
088.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
31/17                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
349 AM MDT SUN MAR 9 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)                                                             
UPPER LOW BACK OVER NRN AZ/NW NM WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD            
INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN NM BY 00Z MON.  CURRENT RADAR INDICATES SOME              
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ECHOES ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF              
THE SE MTS...MAINLY WETS...SANGRES...AND THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY              
OF FREMONT COUNTY.  MYP HAS BEEN REPORTING +SN OFF AND ON...AND WEB             
CAMS FROM UP THAT WAY SUGGEST A COUPLE INCHES OR SO MAY HAVE                    
ACCUMULATED SINCE AROUND MIDNIGHT.  OVERALL...SYSTEM NOT THAT                   
IMPRESSIVE IN SATELLITE LOOPS.  BEST DYNAMICS/ISENTROPIC LIFT IS                
OCCURRING NOW THROUGH AROUND 15Z...THEN IT WANES QUICKLY THROUGH THE            
LATE MORNING AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHWARD.  DEFORMATION            
BAND APPEARS PRETTY FRAGMENTED AND ILL DEFINED.  WILL MAINTAIN THE              
SNOW ADVISORY FOR MOST AREAS...THOUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHAVE OFF SOME              
OF THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF LAKE AND EASTERN CHAFFEE COUNTIES.  H7              
WINDS DON`T APPEAR ALL THAT STRONG IN EITHER MODEL NOW...NAM OR                 
GFS...SO DON`T THINK WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL               
RECEIVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF HEAVY SNOW...SO WILL ALSO REMOVE THE                 
ADVISORY FOR ZONE 65.  FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE ADVISORY                        
AREA...TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 8 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH              
THE HEAVIEST ACCUMS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WETS AND SANGRES.              
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END BY THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST AREAS AS WEAK                
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.                               
LEE TROF REDEVELOPS TOWARDS DAWN...AND H7 TEMPS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM              
ARE NOT ALL THAT COLD.  MIN TEMPS MAY BE HIT AROUND/BEFORE                      
MIDNIGHT...WITH WESTERLY DRAINAGE FLOW KICKING IN ACROSS THE LOWER              
EASTERN SLOPES AFTER 06Z CAUSING TEMPS TO STAY STEADY...OR EVEN WARM            
SLIGHTLY. -KT                                                                   
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)                                                       
...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THIS WEEK...                              
MONDAY...INTERESTING LITTLE WEATHER FEATURE TO DROP SOUTHWARD ON                
THE BACKSIDE OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE                 
GREAT BASIN. THE WEATHER FEATURE...UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK AND                   
ASSOCIATED LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH...IS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN MT PER              
WATER VAPOR AND RUC MODEL UPPER AIR ANALYSES. GFS/ECMWF HAS THIS                
FEATURE DROPPING THROUGH WESTERN CO DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. NAM-               
WRF KIND OF HAS THIS FEATURE...BUT NOT PRINTING OUT MUCH IN THE                 
WAY OF QPF. WEATHER FEATURE SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL                
ROCKIES DURING PEAK HEATING AND INSTABILITY...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATE               
OF 7-8 C/KM WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE                
PRECIPITATION OVER THE MOUNTAINS/HIGH VALLEYS. THE CURRENT                      
FORECAST HAS SOMETHING TO THIS EXTENT...BUT POPS MIGHT NEED TO BE               
BUMPED UP A LITTLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS/HIGH VALLEYS IF FUTURE                    
MODELS CONTINUE THIS TREND.                                                     
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...OVERALL A PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW                  
PATTERN APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE WITH WEATHER FEATURES MOVING                 
RAPIDLY THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. IN GENERAL...TEMPERATURES ARE              
FORECAST TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE MARCH AVERAGE READINGS. THE                 
BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...               
ESPECIALLY THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY AND                
SATURDAY. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MORE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE                         
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS                 
WILL BE LIKELY TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. METZE                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MVFR/VFR CIGS EXPECTED ACROSS KCOS/KPUB TAF SITES THROUGH THE                   
MORNING...WITH CLEARING SKIES BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  FOR               
THE SOUTHERN MTS/FOOTHILLS/HIGH VALLEYS...WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS               
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS ALONG THE               
EASTERN SLOPES AND HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL              
CONTINUE.  KALS MAY SEE SOME MVFR TO BRIEF IFR UNDER SNOW SHOWERS               
THROUGH THE MORNING.  IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL OF THE              
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOME PERSISTENT ISOLATED             
TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING ALONG THE CONTDVD THROUGH THE              
EVENING. -KT                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR COZ060>062-072>080-087-                  
088.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
31/17                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ                                         
956 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE EARLY TONIGHT WILL MOVE UP              
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL CAUSE STRONG             
AND GUSTY WEST WINDS FOR OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH                    
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY, BUT MOVE                 
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED                
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY CROSS THE AREA MONDAY, WITH ANOTHER ONE                    
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. THESE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAK AND NOT               
PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST             
TO RETURN BRIEFLY THURSDAY, FOLLOWED WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE                  
SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK.                                   
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...                                       
THE LOW IS MOVING UP THROUGH NEW YORK STATE, AND THE GRADIENT,                  
WHILE MAYBE BECOMING EVEN A SMIDGEN TIGHTER THAN IT IS AT 02Z, IS               
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO HIGH WIND LEVELS. SO, THE              
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WAS DOWNGRADED              
TO A WIND ADVISORY, WHICH IS UP EVERYWHERE UNTIL 11Z (7 AM EDT).                
CYCLONIC FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND THE MID LEVEL TROF AXIS LINGER                 
FOR A WHILE ONCE THE COLD FRONT IS THROUGH AND THE SURFACE LOW IS               
WELL NORTH OF US, SO WE`LL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW                     
SHOWERS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. ACKNOWLEDGING THAT THERE                
WILL BE FLOODING FOR A WHILE AFTER THE BULK OF THE RAIN, WE`VE                  
ALLOWED THE FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM AND WILL HANDLE FLOODING              
WITH WARNINGS, ADVISORIES AND STATEMENTS. THE WEATHER STORY HAS                 
TRANSITIONED TO THE WIND.                                                       
MODELS SHOW H8 WINDS AT OR ABOVE 50 KT BY 00Z AND CONTINUING                    
THROUGH 06Z, WITH VERY SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE RISES SWEEPING ACROSS               
THE AREA NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. STRONG               
NVA ACCOMPANIES A JET AT H5 IN EXCESS OF 100 KTS, AND THAT JET                  
RUNS ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF A NEGATIVE TILT TROF AXIS EMANATING                 
FROM THE H5 CUTOFF. THIS, ACCORDING TO AN IN-HOUSE DECISION TREE,               
SPELLS WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 KT. THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS              
TO AROUND 45 KT IN THE SAME AREA. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH                
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.                                                      
WE HAVEN`T DEVIATED TOO MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REGARDING               
TEMPERATURES, AS THAT DOESN`T SEEM TO BE WHERE THE BULK OF THE                  
ACTION IS IN THE FIRST PERIOD.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...                       
FRANKLY, THE BULK OF THE ACTION IS IN THE NEAR TERM. WINDS WILL                 
DIMINISH GRADUALLY DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY, AS A SURFACE HIGH                  
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY                
MONDAY. A CONSIDERABLY WEAKER MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL MOVE TOWARD                
US MONDAY AND CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. WE HAVE PUT IN SOME                  
CHANCE POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES ON MONDAY NIGHT, BUT THE AMOUNT              
OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED IS VIRTUALLY NIL. WE`VE STAYED CLOSE TO               
A COMBINATION OF GUIDANCE AND CONTINUITY ON TEMPERATURES THROUGH                
THE PERIOD.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                        
THE FORECAST LOOKS RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE                   
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE            
SOUTHWEST. THIS HIGH STAYS JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION                  
WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS TROUGH COULD             
BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY, MAINLY JUST TO THE POCONOS               
AND LEHIGH VALLEY, BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.            
A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY AND                    
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER LOOKS TO BE AT THE END OF THE            
WORK WEEK AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. A LOW                
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER NORTHEASTERN CANADA, WILL TRY TO DRAG A            
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER, ANOTHER LOW OVER            
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MAKE ITS WAY NORTHEAST AND PASS RIGHT               
OVER THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.                                      
FOLLOWED ALONG THE LINES OF HPC FOR THE MOST PART BUT DID MAKE                  
OCCASIONAL ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON MOS GUIDANCE.                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                      
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD EXITED THE AREA AND TAF SITES HAD                 
RETURNED MOSTLY TO VFR (KABE HAD A MARGINAL VFR CEILING), WITH JUST             
A COUPLE OF LIGHT LEFTOVER ECHOES ON RADAR. NOW, STRONG WINDS AND               
WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE STORY FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO.                       
THE RUC WAS QUITE GOOD IN DEPICTING STRONG DEVELOPMENT OF WINDS                 
(AND, IN RETROSPECT, THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT) BETWEEN 22Z AND 23Z.             
WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG, WITH GUSTS REACHING 40 TO 45 KNOTS                  
TONIGHT, AND PERHAPS SLACKING OFF A BIT LATE TONIGHT AND A BIT                  
MORE SUNDAY, BEFORE REALLY DROPPING OFF LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS               
THE GRADIENT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY                    
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.                                                         
BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD, THERE ARE SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS THAT ARE                  
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. ONE BEING ON MONDAY, ANOTHER ON              
WEDNESDAY, AND ANOTHER BEING NEXT FRIDAY. THE SYSTEM NEXT FRIDAY                
WILL LIKELY HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACT, ALTHOUGH THE FIRST TWO COULD              
PRODUCE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA.                                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT, WITH A STRONG WEST            
TO NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND IT. WE HAVE CONTINUED THE GALE WARNING FOR             
THE DELAWARE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF LITTLE EGG INLET. NORTH            
OF LITTLE EGG INLET, WE HAVE ISSUED A STORM WARNING FOR THE                     
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE            
NORTHERN SECTIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THESE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO                
DIMINISH TOWARD DAYBREAK TOMORROW, BUT EVERYONE SHOULD STILL                    
EXPERIENCE GALES THROUGH THE MORNING SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON,               
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA AND WILL LIKELY LAST              
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.  SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ARE NOT EXPECTED                  
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE A COUPLE            
OF WEAK SYSTEMS THAT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY OR WEDNESDAY.             
THEY SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY PROBLEMS HOWEVER.                                     
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
THE FLOOD WATCH HAS EXPIRED, AND ALL SUBSEQUENT FLOODING CONCERNS               
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE HANDLED BY WARNINGS, ADVISORIES AND                    
STATEMENTS.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...                                                      
LOW TIDE WAS APPROACHING FOR THE EASTERN MARYLAND SHORE AREAS AS                
OF 0145Z, AND THAT`S FORTUNATE BECAUSE THE ANOMALIES HAVE                       
MAINTAINED ABOUT PLUS 2 FEET. HOWEVER, THIS SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY              
MORE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING, AND AS WINDS VEER OVER THE NEXT FEW                  
HOURS, ANOMALIES SHOULD DIMINISH.                                               
A LOW WATER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND                 
DELAWARE BAY FOR THE LOW TIDE CYCLE SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE                    
STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS, BLOW-OUT TIDES ARE EXPECTED.                    
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT FOR DETAILS.                
THE LOW TIDE ON SUNDAY NIGHT COULD POSSIBLY REACH BLOW- OUT                     
CONDITIONS AGAIN, SO WE WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE                    
FORECAST FOR FUTURE UPDATES.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-                
     067>071.                                                                   
NJ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.            
DE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR DEZ001>004.                        
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.            
MARINE...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.               
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-452>455.                 
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450-451.                        
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450-451.                  
     LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-               
     431.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS.../ MEOLA                                                              
NEAR TERM.../ DELISI                                                            
SHORT TERM...DELISI                                                             
LONG TERM...MEOLA                                                               
AVIATION.../                                                                    
MARINE.../                                                                      
HYDROLOGY...                                                                    
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING.../ MPD                                                  
</pre> de                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ                                         
735 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL              
INTENSIFY AND LIFT NORTHEAST INTO MAINE BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. HIGH                
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND REMAIN                  
INTO MONDAY. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.              
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.                     
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...                                       
WHAT SEEMS TO BE A PENULTIMATE LINE OF CONVECTION WAS READY TO                  
MOVE OUT OF NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AT 615 PM EST. THE LAST OF THE                  
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE SYSTEM WAS LIFTING INTO                  
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AT 615 PM. IT WAS MIXING DOWN SOME STRONG WIND              
GUSTS AS IT LIFTED NORTHEAST. WE ARE CARRYING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR              
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND CENTRAL THIS EVENING.                                   
CYCLONIC FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND THE MID LEVEL TROF AXIS LINGER                 
FOR A WHILE ONCE THE COLD FRONT IS THROUGH AND THE SURFACE LOW IS               
WELL NORTH OF US, SO WE MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS               
IN THE NORTHWEST FOR A LONGER TIME TONIGHT THAN ELSEWHERE.                      
ACKNOWLEDGING THAT THERE WILL BE FLOODING FOR A WHILE AFTER THE                 
BULK OF THE RAIN, WE`VE ALLOWED THE FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM               
AND WILL HANDLE FLOODING WITH WARNINGS, ADVISORIES AND STATEMENTS.              
THE WEATHER STORY WAS TRANSITIONING TO THE WIND.                                
MODELS SHOW H8 WINDS AT OR ABOVE 50 KT BY 00Z AND CONTINUING                    
THROUGH 06Z, WITH VERY SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE RISES SWEEPING ACROSS               
THE AREA NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. STRONG               
NVA ACCOMPANIES A JET AT H5 IN EXCESS OF 100 KTS, AND THAT JET                  
RUNS ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF A NEGATIVE TILT TROF AXIS EMANATING                 
FROM THE H5 CUTOFF. THIS, ACCORDING TO AN IN-HOUSE DECISION TREE,               
SPELLS WIND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 50 KT. THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT               
GUSTS TO AROUND 45 KT IN THE SAME AREA, AND WE`VE DECIDED TO GO                 
WITH A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE AREA IN QUESTION AND A WIND                    
ADVISORY SOUTHEAST OF THERE. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH DURING              
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.                                                             
WE HAVEN`T DEVIATED TOO MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REGARDING               
TEMPERATURES, AS THAT DOESN`T SEEM TO BE WHERE THE BULK OF THE                  
ACTION IS IN THE FIRST PERIOD.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...                       
FRANKLY, THE BULK OF THE ACTION IS IN THE NEAR TERM. WINDS WILL                 
DIMINISH GRADUALLY DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY, AS A SURFACE HIGH                  
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY                
MONDAY. A CONSIDERABLY WEAKER MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL MOVE TOWARD                
US MONDAY AND CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. WE HAVE PUT IN SOME                  
CHANCE POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES ON MONDAY NIGHT, BUT THE AMOUNT              
OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED IS VIRTUALLY NIL. WE`VE STAYED CLOSE TO               
A COMBINATION OF GUIDANCE AND CONTINUITY ON TEMPERATURES THROUGH                
THE PERIOD.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                        
THE FORECAST LOOKS RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE                   
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE            
SOUTHWEST. THIS HIGH STAYS JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION                  
WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS TROUGH COULD             
BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY, MAINLY JUST TO THE POCONOS               
AND LEHIGH VALLEY, BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.            
A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY AND                    
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER LOOKS TO BE AT THE END OF THE            
WORK WEEK AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. A LOW                
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER NORTHEASTERN CANADA, WILL TRY TO DRAG A            
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER, ANOTHER LOW OVER            
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MAKE ITS WAY NORTHEAST AND PASS RIGHT               
OVER THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.                                      
FOLLOWED ALONG THE LINES OF HPC FOR THE MOST PART BUT DID MAKE                  
OCCASIONAL ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON MOS GUIDANCE.                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                      
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD EXITED THE AREA AND TAF SITES HAD                 
RETURNED MOSTLY TO VFR (KABE HAD A MARGINAL VFR CEILING), WITH JUST             
A COUPLE OF LIGHT LEFTOVER ECHOES ON RADAR. NOW, STRONG WINDS AND               
WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE STORY FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO.                       
THE RUC WAS QUITE GOOD IN DEPICTING STRONG DEVELOPMENT OF WINDS                 
(AND, IN RETROSPECT, THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT) BETWEEN 22Z AND 23Z.             
WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG, WITH GUSTS REACHING 40 TO 50 KNOTS EARLY            
TONIGHT, AND PERHAPS SLACKING OFF A BIT LATER TONIGHT AND A BIT MORE            
SUNDAY, BEFORE REALLY DROPPING OFF LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE                
GRADIENT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO            
THE REGION.                                                                     
BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD, THERE ARE SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS THAT ARE                  
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. ONE BEING ON MONDAY, ANOTHER ON              
WEDNESDAY, AND ANOTHER BEING NEXT FRIDAY. THE SYSTEM NEXT FRIDAY                
WILL LIKELY HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACT, ALTHOUGH THE FIRST TWO COULD              
PRODUCE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA.                                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT, WITH A STRONG WEST            
TO NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND IT. WE HAVE CONTINUED THE GALE WARNING FOR             
THE DELAWARE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF LITTLE EGG INLET. NORTH            
OF LITTLE EGG INLET, WE HAVE ISSUED A STORM WARNING FOR THE                     
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE            
NORTHERN SECTIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THESE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO                
DIMINISH TOWARD DAYBREAK TOMORROW, BUT EVERYONE SHOULD STILL                    
EXPERIENCE GALES THROUGH THE MORNING SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON,               
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA AND WILL LIKELY LAST              
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.  SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ARE NOT EXPECTED                  
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE A COUPLE            
OF WEAK SYSTEMS THAT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY OR WEDNESDAY.             
THEY SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY PROBLEMS HOWEVER.                                     
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
THE FLOOD WATCH HAS EXPIRED, AND ALL SUBSEQUENT FLOODING CONCERNS               
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE HANDLED BY WARNINGS, ADVISORIES AND                    
STATEMENTS.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...                                                      
TIDE HEIGHTS AT CAMBRIDGE JUST REACHED FLOOD LEVEL EARLY THIS                   
EVENING, AND THEY DID SO ABOUT 90 MINUTES AFTER ASTRONOMICAL HIGH               
TIDE THANKS TO THE STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE WINDS MAY VEER               
ENOUGH TO MAKE THIS ISOLATED IN NATURE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS,                 
BUT TO ERR ON THE CAUTIOUS SIDE WE ISSUED A STATEMENT ABOUT MINOR               
TIDAL FLOODING FOR THE NORTHERN MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE.                         
A LOW WATER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND                 
DELAWARE BAY FOR THE LOW TIDE CYCLE SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE                    
STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS, BLOW-OUT TIDES ARE EXPECTED.                    
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT FOR DETAILS.                
THE LOW TIDE ON SUNDAY NIGHT COULD POSSIBLY REACH BLOW- OUT                     
CONDITIONS AGAIN, SO WE WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE                    
FORECAST FOR FUTURE UPDATES.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
PA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-            
     067>071.                                                                   
NJ...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010-                
     012>020-026-027.                                                           
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NJZ021>025.                        
DE...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR DEZ001.                        
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR DEZ002>004.                        
MD...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MDZ008.                        
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MDZ012-015-019-020.                
MARINE...LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT TO 7 AM EDT               
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.                                                     
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-452>455.                 
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450-451.                        
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450-451.                  
     LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-               
     431.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA                                                                
NEAR TERM...DELISI                                                              
SHORT TERM...DELISI                                                             
LONG TERM...MEOLA                                                               
AVIATION.../ LR                                                                 
MARINE...LR                                                                     
HYDROLOGY...DELISI                                                              
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ROBERTSON/DELISI                                       
</pre> de                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID                                               
852 AM MST SAT MAR 8 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...PCPN FADING AS MAIN ENERGY ALOFT TURNS SSEWD INTO                 
NEVADA AND WEAKENS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IN SCENTRAL IDAHO. 15Z                
SAPIX SHOWED ENHANCED HIGHER CLOUDS FURTHER EAST IN WRN WY AND                  
ALONG THE UT/CO BORDER BUT THE PCPN WAS IN THE UN-ENHANCED CLOUDS               
IN SRN IDAHO/NERN NEVADA.  AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN .10 INCH                 
SO FAR AND EVEN LESS THAN THAT IS EXPECTED THE REST OF TODAY...                 
MOST OF IT OCCURRING IN THE SW IDAHO HIGHLANDS AND SRN TWIN FALLS               
COUNTY.  OREGON ZONES ARE ALREADY DRYING AS NEXT PACIFIC UPPER                  
RIDGE COMES IN.  FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN OUR NRN CWA VALLEYS                 
OVERNIGHT AS LOWER LEVELS REMAIN MOIST.  MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILDER                
SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGE COMES OVER CWA.  NO MORE PCPN UNTIL LATE                  
MONDAY NIGHT.  CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ABOUT RIGHT...NO UPDATES.                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OVER THE             
FORECAST AREA.  PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON BUT               
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LOCAL MVFR AND ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS AND                 
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHWEST IDAHO.  CONDITIONS             
HAVE IMPROVED FROM THE WEST OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON AND WILL CONTINUE             
TO MOVE TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON.  EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND              
VFR CONDITIONS BY THIS EVENING.  SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL BE LIGHT              
TO MODERATE FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH MODERATE WEST TO                    
NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...COLD FRONT AT 3 AM EXTENDED FROM            
THE HELLS CANYON AREA THROUGH THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY WHERE A                 
TRACE OF RAIN HAD FALLEN AT ONTARIO. BURNS HAD CHANGED OVER TO SNOW             
CLOSER TO THE COOL DEVELOPING UPPER LOW. THE H4 TROUGH AND VORTICITY            
CENTER WHICH HAVE BEEN MOVING INLAND/EAST EARLY THIS SATURDAY                   
MORNING LINE UP WELL WITH THE WATERVAPOR IMAGERY OVER OREGON AND RUC            
ANALYSES. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHEAST BY 6 AM AS THE               
RIDGE TO ITS WEST AMPLIFIES - IN FACT JET ENERGY HAD FINALLY TURNED             
FROM WESTERLY TO NW OVER CALIFORNIA AS OF 3 AM BLASTING HIGH CLOUDS             
SOUTHEASTWARD. THE RUC CUTS OFF THE H4 LOW OVER JORDAN VALLEY /WITH             
THE BEST PRECIP/ BY 8 AM AND DIGS IT SE INTO NE NV BY 2 PM TAKING               
NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS /SNOW ABOVE 5K FT/ INTO THE SOUTHERN                      
MOUNTAINS. HAVE KEPT NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN THE OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED             
WEST CENTRAL/BOISE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING AS WELL. DRY AIR ACROSS               
THE UPPER TREASURE VALLEY EXPECTED TO KEEP POPS LIMITED TO SCATTERED            
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH DRYING NORTH FLOW ALOFT THIS                
AFTERNOON THEN THE DRY SURFACE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER SW IDAHO                 
TONIGHT. WITH IT - CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING            
AND HAVE CUT MOS TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY. ALSO HAVE LEFT PATCHY FOG IN            
THE FORECAST IN MOST MOIST /MAXRH- WISE/ AREAS. THE HIGH RETREATS               
SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM /OUT AT THE DATELINE AT 3 AM THIS MORNING/            
SLOWLY APPROACHES...FOR A SUNNY DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES              
TO START THE SWITCH TO DAYLIGHT TIME...ALTHOUGH EXPECT INCREASING SE            
TO SW WINDS BY AFTERNOON.                                                       
LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE            
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN                
WEST ON MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LOW OFF OF THE NORTH                  
PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER               
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS MONDAY WILL ALLOW HIGH             
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB 4 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A WARM FRONT WILL            
MOVE ACROSS THE CWA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...KEEPING LOWS ON THE MILD            
SIDE...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.                      
PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE FOCUSED ALONG THE COLD FRONT DURING THE            
DAY TUESDAY...AS MUCH OF THE DYNAMICS/MOISTURE WILL BE FURTHER NORTH            
OFF THE WASHINGTON STATE COAST. UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS            
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE              
TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND UPPER DYNAMICS...WITH                
EXIT REGION OF 300 MB JET OVER ID/NV BORDER FOR CONVECTIVE SHOWERS.             
ANOTHER BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS              
ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER SERIES OF SYSTEMS FOR                    
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THESE SYSTEM ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD                   
LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WHICH IS FORECAST TO                  
SETTLE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD            
WILL BE AROUND NORMAL.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ID...NONE.                                                                      
OR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE                                                               
DISCUSSION...LC                                                                 
AVIATION.....JA                                                                 
PREV SHORT TERM...VM                                                            
PREV LONG TERM....JS                                                            
</pre> id                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID                                               
356 AM MST SAT MAR 8 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...COLD FRONT AT 3 AM EXTENDED                
FROM THE HELLS CANYON AREA THROUGH THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY WHERE              
A TRACE OF RAIN HAD FALLEN AT ONTARIO. BURNS HAD CHANGED OVER TO                
SNOW CLOSER TO THE COOL DEVELOPING UPPER LOW. THE H4 TROUGH AND                 
VORTICITY CENTER WHICH HAVE BEEN MOVING INLAND/EAST EARLY THIS                  
SATURDAY MORNING LINE UP WELL WITH THE WATERVAPOR IMAGERY OVER                  
OREGON AND RUC ANALYSES. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHEAST               
BY 6 AM AS THE RIDGE TO ITS WEST AMPLIFIES - IN FACT JET ENERGY                 
HAD FINALLY TURNED FROM WESTERLY TO NW OVER CALIFORNIA AS OF 3 AM               
BLASTING HIGH CLOUDS SOUTHEASTWARD. THE RUC CUTS OFF THE H4 LOW                 
OVER JORDAN VALLEY /WITH THE BEST PRECIP/ BY 8 AM AND DIGS IT SE                
INTO NE NV BY 2 PM TAKING NUMEROUS TO RAIN SHWOERS /SNOW ABOVE 5K               
FT/ INTO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. HAVE KEPT NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN THE              
OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED WEST CENTRAL/BOISE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING                
AS WELL. DRY AIR ACROSS THE UPPER TREASURE VALLEY EXPECTED TO KEEP              
POPS LIMITED TO SCATTERED TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH                   
DRYING NORTH FLOW ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON THEN THE DRY SURFACE HIGH                
CENTER BUILDS OVER SW IDAHO TONIGHT. WITH IT - CLEAR SKIES WILL                 
ALLOW STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND HAVE CUT MOS TEMPERATURES                  
SLIGHTLY. ALSO HAVE LEFT PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST IN MOST MOIST               
/MAXRH- WISE/ AREAS. THE HIGH RETREATS SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM                
/OUT AT THE DATELINE AT 3 AM THIS MORNING/ SLOWLY APPROACHES...FOR              
A SUNNY DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START THE SWITCH                  
TO DAYLIGHT TIME...ALTHOUGH EXPECT INCREASING SE TO SW WINDS BY                 
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...ACTIVE PATTERN TO                    
CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE                     
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LOW OFF OF              
THE NORTH PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF WARMER               
AND DRIER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS MONDAY WILL              
ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB 4 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A WARM            
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...KEEPING LOWS             
ON THE MILD SIDE...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY ON                   
TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE FOCUSED ALONG THE COLD FRONT              
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AS MUCH OF THE DYNAMICS/MOISTURE WILL BE               
FURTHER NORTH OFF THE WASHINGTON STATE COAST. UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS               
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY            
WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND UPPER                 
DYNAMICS...WITH EXIT REGION OF 300 MB JET OVER ID/NV BORDER FOR                 
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. ANOTHER BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AS             
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER SERIES OF             
SYSTEMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THESE SYSTEM ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A             
BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WHICH IS FORECAST TO            
SETTLE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD            
WILL BE AROUND NORMAL.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WITH                
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS MORNING ACROSS SE OREGON. AS THIS MOIST               
SYSTEM CONTINUES ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TODAY...EXPECT                   
ISOLATED MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS                 
MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEYS AS WELL AS              
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST OREGON WILL REMAIN MOSTLY VFR.                    
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM THE WEST AFTER 18Z SATURDAY WITH SKIES             
CLEAR FOR VFR. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST                 
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON DIMINISHING BY EVENING. WINDS ALOFT WILL             
BE MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ID...NONE.                                                                      
OR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE                                                               
SHORT TERM...VM                                                                 
LONG TERM....JS                                                                 
AVIATION.....JS                                                                 
</pre> id                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1158 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISSUED 1021 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2008                                               
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AND BACK AROUND TO THE               
NORTHWEST TODAY AS STRONG STORM SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY                     
RETREATS... AND NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE                
WEST.                                                                           
HOWEVER... 12Z ILX RAOB INDICATES SHALLOW MOIST LAYER STILL EXISTS              
BETWEEN 2-4K FEET... AND VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CU POPPING UP                  
AGAIN IN THIS MOIST AREA... WHICH THE NAM AND RUC SEEM TO BE                    
HANDLING PRETTY WELL. ALSO... PROFILER OBS SUGGEST STILL GETTING A              
FETCH OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH IS HELPING TO ENHANCE CLOUD COVER                 
EAST OF THE I-57 CORRIDOR... DNV AWOS EVEN REPORTED A FEW FLURRIES              
NOT TOO LONG AGO.                                                               
AS LOW LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE              
AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH DIURNAL MIXING SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO                  
DECREASE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE I-55 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...              
NAM/RUC AND LOCAL WRF SUGGEST ELEVATED MOIST LAYER WILL KEEP SOME               
CLOUDS AROUND THE FAR NORTHEAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.                         
WILL EDIT GRIDS TO REFLECT SHORT TERM FORECAST EVOLUTION... AND                 
SHOULD HAVE PFM OUT BEFORE 11 AM. WILL REISSUE ZFP TO INCREASE SKY              
COVER ACROSS THE FAR EAST.                                                      
HARDIMAN                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISSUED 1155 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2008                                               
SHALLOW MOIST LAYER LEFT OVER FROM YESTERDAY CAUSING CU TO FLARE                
UP AGAIN ACROSS MOST TERMINALS. CIGS SHOULD MIX UP TO VFR BETWEEN               
18Z-20Z FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT CMI. LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILERS                  
SUGGEST WE ARE STILL SEEING A COMPONENT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN AT                    
CMI... AND THIS IS ENHANCING CU DEVELOPMENT... AND KEEPING CIGS                 
BETWEEN 020-030 THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW REPORTS OF 7SM WITH               
FLURRIES HAVE ALSO BEEN NOTED IN THE AREA... BUT RISK/IMPACTS LOW               
EVEN IF A FEW FLAKES FELL AT CMI...SO NOT WORTH MENTIONING IN TAF.              
BACKING WINDS SHOULD PULL LOWER CLOUDS OUT OF CMI THIS EVENING...               
ALONG WITH DIURNAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL                  
THICKEN FROM WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF WEAK CLIPPER WHICH WILL                      
APPROACH THE AREA BY MORNING WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS                  
OUTSIDE OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND SHIFTING WINDS.                                 
HARDIMAN                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
ISSUED 310 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2008                                                
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY UP THE ERN                    
SEABOARD THIS MORNING. PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER OVER THE FAR SE                   
REMAINING IN PLACE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...THOUGH THE ASSOCIATED                 
PRECIP WAS SLOWLY ERODED BACK IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS COMING              
AROUND TO MORE NWRLY THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD ASSIST IN KEEPING                
THE TEMPERATURES AROUND AND JUST BELOW YESTERDAYS HIGHS...DESPITE               
THE AMPLE SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING. MODELS DIFFERING HERE AND THERE              
AS THE FLOW WEAKENS SOMEWHAT ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE                           
WEEKEND...ALMOST SPLITTING FROM TIME TO TIME WITH CENTRAL ILLINOIS              
CAUGHT BTWN TWO TRACKS OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. GOING WITH AN               
ECMWF/GFS BLEND...KEEPING VERY CLOSE TO LAST FCST ISSUANCE.                     
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TOMORROW...                                              
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AS LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PULL THE                 
CLOUDS IN THE SE ALONG WITH IT OUT TO THE EAST. LITTLE IN THE WAY               
OF MOISTURE ON WV SATELLITE THIS MORNING TO THE NW. WHAT IS THERE               
WILL NOT ARRIVE IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS UNTIL LATER IN THE                          
AFTERNOON...EVEN THEN SHOULD BE CONFINED TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS AT                 
LEAST UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. DISTURBANCE IN        
S CENTRAL CANADA THIS MORNING ON TRACK TO DIVE INTO THE REGION                  
TONIGHT...AND PASS ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE STATE SUNDAY. CHANCE              
POPS WARRANTED FOR I-74 CORRIDOR NWD. TRACK OF THE DISTURBANCE IS               
A BIT OF A QUESTION MARK AS THE WAVE PATTERN IS SPLITTING WITH                  
THIS PULSE IN MOST OF THE MODELS. CHANCE POPS MAY BE SPREAD SWD                 
WITH NEXT ISSUANCES AS A RESULT.                                                
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                         
GENERAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH                
PRESSURE TAKES OVER AT THE SFC. FORECAST REMAINS DRY...AT LEAST                 
UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT BTWN TWO                
LOWS MOVES ACROSS THE CONUS. BEST DYNAMICS APPEAR TO REMAIN ALONG               
THE GULF COAST...BRINGING RAIN TO ILX. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE                 
OUT FOR THUNDER CHANCES IN NEXT FEW RUNS.                                       
HJS                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
1112 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
822 PM CST                                                                      
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED TO GOING FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...THOUGH                 
WORKING TO MASSAGE GRIDS SOME TO SHIFT HEAVIER QPF/SNOW AND HIGHER              
POPS A BIT FARTHER EAST/SOUTHEAST.                                              
LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE OFF SOUTHERN               
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE INTO THE CITY AND SE SUBURBS AS WELL AS NW                 
IN. INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR SPREADING SOUTHWARD HAS ALREADY                     
STEEPENED UP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE LAKE AND RESULTED IN                
AN INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW               
OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR               
NOTED BY THE TREND FOR COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.              
ALREADY SEEING THE COOLING CLOUD TOPS WORKING SOUTH DOWN THE LAKE               
WHICH SUPPORTS THE LATEST SUITE OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE WHICH GETS                
THE LAKE EFFECT REALLY CRANKING LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.                
BIGGEST SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS DETERMINING WHERE                 
THE LAKE EFFECT BAND WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY                    
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LOCALLY RUN WRF-ARW IS THE               
ROGUE MODEL AT THIS POINT SUGGESTING THAT THE LAKE EFFECT BAND                  
WILL SET UP OVER LAKE COUNTY IL SOUTHWARD INTO COOK COUNTY. THE                 
18Z WRF-NMM IS SIMILAR TO ITS 18Z AND 00Z RUNS YESTERDAY...AND                  
ALSO IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST HI-RES RUC WHICH SUGGESTS THE                 
ORGANIZED LAKE BAND WILL SET UP LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE SHORE AND               
JUST OFF SHORE...MAKING LANDFALL IN NORTHERN COOK COUNTY AND                    
STRETCHING THROUGH EASTERN COOK INTO EASTERN WILL COUNTY AND                    
CLIPPING WESTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE COUNTY IN.                                    
REALLY ONLY TALKING A DIFFERENCE OF 15-25 MILES...WHICH IS REALLY               
PROBABLY NOT MUCH ABOVE THE NOISE LEVEL WHEN IT COMES TO MODELING.              
WHERE EVER THE BAND SETS UP...EXPECT IT TO SHIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD                
FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO VEER AND IT STARTS                
AN EVENTUAL MIGRATION EAST FOCUSING MORE IN INDIANA BY SAT                      
AFTERNOON. STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH THE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE MOST                 
ORGANIZED AND HEAVIEST FROM 06 OR 08Z THROUGH ABOUT 15Z SATURDAY                
MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING.                                                
GOING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK RIGHT ON TARGET WITH SOME LOCATIONS                 
LIKELY ENDING UP WITH 3-6 INCHES BY THE TIME THE SNOW ENDS                      
SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. STILL CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT                   
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OVER 6 INCHES SHOULD THE BAND SIT IN  PLACE                    
TOO LONG...WHILE OTHER PORTIONS OF COOK AND LAKE COUNTIES LIKELY                
END UP WITH JUST FLURRIES.                                                      
MIDNIGHT SHIFT WILL NEED TO WATCH HOW THE BAND BEHAVES                          
TONIGHT...WITH IT POSSIBLE THAT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MAY               
NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE LAKE COUNTY INDIANA. WOULD LIKE TO               
SEE THE WHITES OF THE LAKE EFFECTS EYES BEFORE MAKING ANY CHANGES               
LIKE THAT.                                                                      
IZZI                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
1111 PM CST                                                                     
RE 06Z TAFORS...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS FAR SE                  
WI...NE IL...NW IN AT LATE EVENING. IR SATELLITE INDICATING AN                  
INCREASINGLY WELL DEFINED BAND FROM NORTHERN LAKE MI S ALONG THE SE             
WI SHORELINE AND INTO NE IL. KMKX 88D ALSO BEGINNING TO DETECT A                
DOUBLE BAND OVER THE LAKE AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS AND DEPTH OF                  
LAKE EFFECT INCREASES ENOUGH TO BE PICKED UP BY 0.5 DEG SLICE.                  
PROBLEM IS WHERE THE TAIL END OF THE NARROW LES BAND WILL RESIDE                
OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS STILL MAINTAIN BAND ALONG THE WI               
SHORE AND INLAND S ACROSS COOK CO. VARIATIONS ON JUST HOW FAR                   
INLAND WILL GET BUT CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS WILL MAINLY RESIDE                   
ACROSS KMDW WITH KORD ON THE EDGE OF BAND. HAVE MVFR CIGS AND                   
VSBYS THRU 12Z AT KORD AND 14Z AT KMDW WITH TEMPO IFR FOR KMDW AS               
EXPECTED TO BE UNDER MAIN LAKE EFFECT PLUME. MODELS INDICATE THAT               
LES WILL SHIFT TO THE E OUT OVER THE LAKE AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS               
TO NNW-NW.                                                                      
TRS                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
159 PM CST                                                                      
HIGH PRESSURE 30.6 INCHES WAS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS                      
AFTERNOON. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE EAST AND SPREAD FROM NORTHERN                    
QUEBEC THROUGH WISCONSIN AND IOWA TO EASTERN TEXAS BY SATURDAY                  
MORNING. A LOW WILL MOVE INTO NORTH DAKOTA WITH A PRESSURE OF 29.5              
INCHES. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST THE WIND OVER NORTHERN LAKE                      
MICHIGAN WILL DECREASE IN SPEED. HOWEVER THE WIND WILL BE 10 TO                 
20 KNOTS ON THE SOUTH HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH SATURDAY. THE               
DIRECTION OF THE WIND WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND               
OVERNIGHT. THE FETCH OF THE WIND WILL PRODUCE SOME SIGNIFICANT                  
WAVES ON THE SOUTH END OF THE LAKE.                                             
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IL...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST SATURDAY FOR ILZ006-014.          
IN...NONE.                                                                      
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CST SATURDAY FOR LMZ740>745.               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                             
1212 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SENSIBLE WEATHER UPDATE FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                  
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUNS...THE CLOUD COVER IS MUCH SLOWER AND                
THINNER THAN EXPECTED. WITH THAT IN MIND...SLOWED THE SEWD                      
PROGRESSION OF OPAQUE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA              
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.                 
DUE TO AVERAGING TECHNIQUES...TEXT FORECASTS WILL STILL SHOW                    
PARTLY CLOUDY/SUNNY FOR CLOUD TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE                   
SHARPLY DIMINISHED SNOW COVER...EVEN THE TURBULENT MIXING                       
ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCREASED WARM AIR ADVECTION IS RETARDING                   
TIMELY DEVELOPMENT OF CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON.                                   
DESPITE THE SNOW COVER...WARM AIR ADVECTION AND GOOD INSOLATION                 
SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA AND THE                      
PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY RECOVER INTO THE LOWER                        
40S...WITH 50S EXPECTED IN THE SNOW FREE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST                     
MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND THE PURCHASE AREA OF WEST                      
KENTUCKY.                                                                       
UTILIZED A BLEND OF SREF/NAM/RUC GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES                  
TODAY...WITH A BLEND OF THE RUC/NAM FOR DEWPOINTS AND WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
MAIN FORECAST ISSUES ARE TEMPERATURES AND WEAK SYSTEM MOVING                    
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.                                                    
TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE BASED ON SEVERAL PARAMETERS...THE LATEST                
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE TO SEE WHERE SNOW WAS STILL ON THE                      
GROUND...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND A HEDGE TOWARD THE GFS MODEL.              
SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS OUT TO LUNCH...CLEARLY MISSING THE                
FACT THERE IS SNOW ON THE GROUND. LATEST IR IMAGES AND TIME-HEIGHT              
CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST THAT A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK MAY ALSO PLAY A              
ROLE ACROSS THE AREA.                                                           
A MAJORITY OF THE SNOW SHOULD MELT TODAY...BUT IN THE HEAVIER                   
BANDS...THERE STILL MAY BE A LINGERING EFFECT ON MONDAY...SO WILL               
KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT LOWER IN THE EAST. TEMPERATURE ADVECTION                
NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AHEAD OR BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY.                       
SHORTWAVE OF CONCERN CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND IS                    
FORECAST TO REACH THE AREA JUST BEFORE 06Z MONDAY.                              
THE NAM IS WEAKER AND A BIT SLOWER WITH THE SHORTWAVE. LEANED MORE              
TOWARD THE GFS FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST AS IT HAS BEEN A                   
PERSISTENT SIGNAL. THE LATEST RUN HAS THIS SYSTEM A BIT                         
STRONGER...BUT STILL WEAK. NOW RH INCREASES AS THE SYSTEM MOVES                 
THROUGH. WILL THEREFORE BRING THE SLIGHT CHANCE DOWN TO THE                     
TENNESSEE BORDER. BOTH MODELS HAVE THE SYSTEM OUT OF OUR AREA BY                
NOON MONDAY.                                                                    
WARM UP FINALLY GETS GOING IN EARNEST BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS              
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OUT OVER THE PLAINS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS                   
INCREASE. WILL LIKELY SEE MEX MOS TEMPS IN THE 60S REALIZED WED                 
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
NEXT COLD FRONT AND H50 TROF MOVE IN THU/THU EVENING AND BRING THE              
NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH IT. RIGHT NOW...ECMWF AND GFS                  
DIFFER ON HOW THE SFC PRESSURE FIELDS EVOLVE...WITH THE ECMWF HAVING            
MORE OF A CIRCULATION OVER NRN AL/MS WHILE THE GFS HAS MORE OF AN               
OPEN ELONGATED SFC TROF COMING THROUGH THU. WILL SPLIT THE                      
DIFFERENCE FOR RIGHT NOW. ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALOFT ARRIVES THU                  
AFTERNOON TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHC THUNDERSTORMS...BUT EVEN THE                    
SHOWALTER INDICES STAY ABOVE 0 EXCEPT IN THE MO BOOTHEEL REGION.                
ALSO...NO APPRECIABLE CONVERGENCE PROGGED ALONG THE FRONT.                      
THUS...SEVERE ASPECT OF THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE QUITE LOW AT THIS                
TIME.                                                                           
THE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THU NIGHT AND MAINLY SERVE TO BRING US             
BACK DOWN TO SEASONAL TEMPS FOR EARLY/MID MARCH. WILL STAY CLOSE TO             
MEX MOS TEMPS IN THE THU/FRI TIME FRAME. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE                 
FORECAST BEYOND FRI.                                                            
AVIATION...                                                                     
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE              
CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. MAY BE SOME VFR CEILINGS IN THE 5-10K              
FT RANGE...WITH S-SW WINDS 10 MPH DURING THE DAY.                               
&&                                                                              
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORTL/LONG TERM....SMITH                                                       
AVIATION...DH                                                                   
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                             
406 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE VERY NEAR TERM IS DEALING WITH ANTICIPATED                
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT/CLOUD COVER ISSUES ASSOCIATED WITH THE                     
DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND THE INITIAL WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION IN ITS              
WAKE.                                                                           
FOR SPATIAL ORIENTATION...I UTILIZED THE 13KM RUC TO HANDLE THE                 
ORIENTATION OF TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE                   
SLOWLY DECAYING SNOW COVER TODAY. TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN              
SUPPRESSED 3-4 DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE VALUES IN THE DEEPEST SNOW                
COVER OVER THE PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY AND INTO                       
SOUTHWEST INDIANA. I MAY BE TOO QUICK ON THE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT               
REBOUND OVER THE SAME AREA...BUT WITH STRONG MARCH SUN AND                      
SLIGHTLY LONGER DAYLIGHT/ GIVEN DAYLIGHT SAVINGS TIME/...MAY A                  
MORE RAPID REDUCTION IN THE SNOW COVER. I WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH              
THE CLOUD COVER SUNDAY GIVEN THE INCREASED WARM AIR ADVECTION                   
OVER THE COOL/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND SHRINKING SNOW COVER                     
FIELD...AS WELL AS WITH THE ANTICIPATED LIFT LATER IN THE DAY                   
ASSOCIATED THE FORECAST CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA                  
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE GFS/NAM APPEAR TO BE MORE                   
CONSISTENT WITH THIS CLIPPER IN LOCATION AND TIMING VS. THE ECMWF.              
THE SREF DOES SUGGEST SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS                   
CLIPPER...BUT IS FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN THE NAM/GFS.                       
ALL OF THE SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TAKE THE PROMINENT                     
SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARD NWRN CANADA AND DIVE IT SOUTHWARD TOWARD                
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND DAMPEN AND PHASE IT IN WITH THE                     
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT              
INTO MONDAY.                                                                    
BEYOND MONDAY...ALL OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEVELOP AND LOW                  
AMPLITUDE RIDGE AND PUSH IT OVER THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA BY                   
WEDNESDAY...INCREASING THICKNESS AND OVERALL SURFACE TEMPERATURES               
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.                                                   
THE ECMWF/GFS PHASE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE MID/LOWER MS                 
VALLEY WITH A CLOSED LOW IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKE REGION...SETTING               
UP A HIGHER AMPLITUDE TROUGH ACROSS THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA BY                
12Z THURSDAY. TIMING BETWEEN THESE MODELS VARIES...AS ECMWF                     
DEVELOPS A NEGATIVE TILT WITH THE TROUGH...PLACING A GREATER                    
EMPHASIS WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY. AT              
THIS TIME...WILL BLEND THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR A MORE                       
PROLONGED SHOWERY EVENT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME                   
DIVERGENCE IN SOLUTIONS ON THE IMPACT OF SHORTWAVES THAT DEVELOP                
ALONG A BUILDING RIDGE BEHIND THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY SYSTEM. FOR                   
NOW...I HAVE INTRODUCED A SMALL CHANCE PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR SATURDAY.        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LINGERING MVFR CIGS SHOULD RAPIDLY DEPART KEVV AND KOWB AS 500MB                
UPPER LOW ACCELERATES NE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND.            
LIKEWISE WITH RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD GO BELOW 10               
KNOTS AT ALL TAF SITES BY 22-00Z AND REMAIN THERE THRU LATE MORNING             
SUNDAY. COLD AIR STRATOCU...INCLUDING NEAR KCGI...SHOULD DISSIPATE              
TOWARD SUNSET AS WELL. TIME-HEIGHT PLOTS SHOW MEAN RH VALUES NEAR OR            
ABOVE 70% IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER AT ALL SITES NEXT 24 HOURS OR                
SO...SO WILL KEEP AT LEAST SCATTERED MVFR LAYER IN TAFS. IN                     
ADDITION...ANOTHER MOISTURE MAX MOVES IN FROM WEST TO EAST AT ABOUT             
THE 700-750MB LEVEL STARTING AT KCGI AT 06Z TO 10Z AT OWB.                      
&&                                                                              
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT/LONG TERM....SMITH                                                        
AVIATION...SHANKLIN                                                             
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA                                        
1044 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2008                                                      
ZONE PACKAGE IS ON TARGET.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2008/                          
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS AREA PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS              
GENERATING SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN AS SHOWN ON AREA RADARS AND                     
SURFACE OBS. PER KLCH 00Z SOUNDING AND RUC FORECAST                             
SOUNDINGS...PRECIP IS FALLING FROM AROUND 8-10K FEET THROUGH A                  
FAIRLY DRY LAYER BENEATH...AND MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT                     
REACHING THE GROUND. HOWEVER SOME POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL                    
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN AREAS OF HIGHER                   
REFLECTIVITIES...AND SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW COULD EVEN MIX IN AS                  
PROFILE REMAINS SUPPORTIVE AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY               
IN THE 30S. HOWEVER WITH ACTIVITY MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD AND                   
ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS EXPECTED WILL NOT MENTION IN GRIDS OR ZONES FOR              
TODAY.                                                                          
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER OUR REGION TODAY WITH                
CLEARING SKIES ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 50S. THE              
HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...WITH                 
SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING LEADING TO MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR               
SUNDAY. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BEGIN INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO                 
MONDAY AS A POSITIVE-TILTED TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS.                   
A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR BROWNSVILLE...WITH               
UPPER LIFT INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ALONG                 
WITH RISING PWATS. THIS WILL PROMPT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS                  
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS FROM MONDAY MORNING              
INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE                
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS GFS                
THIS PERIOD BUT NOT GONE AS HIGH ON POPS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS                    
DEPICT A MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY...THUS NO              
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. MODEL QPF FIELDS AND HPC                     
GUIDANCE INDICATE AFTER PRECIP TAPERS OFF LATE TUESDAY...FINAL                  
RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN ONE QUARTER               
INCH IN NORTHEAST ZONES TO AROUND ONE INCH IN SOUTHWEST ZONES.                  
LONG TERM...                                                                    
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY               
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH A BRIEF RESPITE IN THE RAIN CHANCES.                 
MODELS THEN DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH 00Z GFS INDICATING A DEEP                
UPPER TROF DIGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AND ROBUST SURFACE                 
LOW DEVELOPMENT TO OUR WEST ON THURSDAY...LEADING TO A SIGNIFICANT              
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. ON THE OTHER HAND...00Z ECMWF IS                  
MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THE TROF AND THUS                    
GENERATES LITTLE TO NO PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA. WITH THE LARGE                    
DISCREPANCIES WILL CONTINUE THE INHERITED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE               
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY TIMEFRAME AND KEEP TEMPS NEAR AVERAGE.                
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE WITH ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM              
POTENTIALLY AFFECTING OUR REGION LATE NEXT WEEKEND.                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
OTHER THAN A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z AT AREA                         
TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS                  
AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.                                                         
MARINE...                                                                       
MSAS ANALYSIS INDICATES WINDS HAVE FALLEN BELOW SCA CRITERIA                    
ACROSS ALL WATERS AND WILL LOWER SCA FLAGS. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS               
AND SEAS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TONIGHT INTO              
TOMORROW. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT              
STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA...WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN                 
THE GULF LEADING TO GUSTY EAST WINDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH              
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM                 
WILL POTENTIALLY AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO                  
FRIDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
KLCH  58  37  69  51 /   0   0   0   0                                          
KBPT  59  38  69  53 /   0   0   0   0                                          
KAEX  53  32  68  46 /   0   0   0   0                                          
KLFT  56  36  68  49 /   0   0   0   0                                          
&&                                                                              
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LA...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> la                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA                                        
336 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS AREA PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS              
GENERATING SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN AS SHOWN ON AREA RADARS AND                     
SURFACE OBS. PER KLCH 00Z SOUNDING AND RUC FORECAST                             
SOUNDINGS...PRECIP IS FALLING FROM AROUND 8-10K FEET THROUGH A                  
FAIRLY DRY LAYER BENEATH...AND MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT                     
REACHING THE GROUND. HOWEVER SOME POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL                    
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN AREAS OF HIGHER                   
REFLECTIVITIES...AND SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW COULD EVEN MIX IN AS                  
PROFILE REMAINS SUPPORTIVE AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY               
IN THE 30S. HOWEVER WITH ACTIVITY MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD AND                   
ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS EXPECTED WILL NOT MENTION IN GRIDS OR ZONES FOR              
TODAY.                                                                          
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER OUR REGION TODAY WITH                
CLEARING SKIES ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 50S. THE              
HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...WITH                 
SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING LEADING TO MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR               
SUNDAY. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BEGIN INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO                 
MONDAY AS A POSITIVE-TILTED TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS.                   
A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR BROWNSVILLE...WITH               
UPPER LIFT INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ALONG                 
WITH RISING PWATS. THIS WILL PROMPT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS                  
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS FROM MONDAY MORNING              
INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE                
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS GFS                
THIS PERIOD BUT NOT GONE AS HIGH ON POPS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS                    
DEPICT A MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY...THUS NO              
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. MODEL QPF FIELDS AND HPC                     
GUIDANCE INDICATE AFTER PRECIP TAPERS OFF LATE TUESDAY...FINAL                  
RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN ONE QUARTER               
INCH IN NORTHEAST ZONES TO AROUND ONE INCH IN SOUTHWEST ZONES.                  
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY               
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH A BRIEF RESPITE IN THE RAIN CHANCES.                 
MODELS THEN DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH 00Z GFS INDICATING A DEEP                
UPPER TROF DIGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AND ROBUST SURFACE                 
LOW DEVELOPMENT TO OUR WEST ON THURSDAY...LEADING TO A SIGNIFICANT              
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. ON THE OTHER HAND...00Z ECMWF IS                  
MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THE TROF AND THUS                    
GENERATES LITTLE TO NO PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA. WITH THE LARGE                    
DISCREPANCIES WILL CONTINUE THE INHERITED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE               
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY TIMEFRAME AND KEEP TEMPS NEAR AVERAGE.                
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE WITH ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM              
POTENTIALLY AFFECTING OUR REGION LATE NEXT WEEKEND.                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
OTHER THAN A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z AT AREA                         
TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS                  
AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
MSAS ANALYSIS INDICATES WINDS HAVE FALLEN BELOW SCA CRITERIA                    
ACROSS ALL WATERS AND WILL LOWER SCA FLAGS. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS               
AND SEAS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TONIGHT INTO              
TOMORROW. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT              
STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA...WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN                 
THE GULF LEADING TO GUSTY EAST WINDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH              
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM                 
WILL POTENTIALLY AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO                  
FRIDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
KLCH  58  37  69  51 /   0   0   0   0                                          
KBPT  59  38  69  53 /   0   0   0   0                                          
KAEX  53  32  68  46 /   0   0   0   0                                          
KLFT  56  36  68  49 /   0   0   0   0                                          
&&                                                                              
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LA...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHAMBURGER                                                                      
</pre> la                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
140 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2008                                                       
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAFS                                           
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD TROUGH STRETCHING FROM            
NEW ENGLAND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WEAK ENE FLOW AHEAD OF SFC             
RIDGE OVER ONTARIO LOOKS LIKE IT MAY STILL BE PRODUCING FLURRIES IN             
DOWNTOWN MQT BUT OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER THE REST OF              
THE CWA.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
TODAY...SOME LIGHT LES IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER NCNTRL AREAS FAVORED              
BY A ENE FLOW AS 850 MB TEMPS ARE AROUND -15C. SOME INCREASE IN LOW             
LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND FAIRLY STEEP                   
SFC-850 MB LAPSE RATES OF 7C/KM OR GREATER COULD LEAD TO SOME                   
ISOLATED DIURNAL SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST HALF THIS                  
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SFC TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. IF THE WRF-ARW              
QPF VERIFIES...A FEW LOCATIONS UNDER THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS COULD             
SEE CLOSE TO AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION USING A 25/1 SNOW/WATER               
RATIO.                                                                          
TONIGHT...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AS THE SFC RIDGE FROM ONTARIO                   
DESCENDS OVER THE AREA. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND PCPN WATER AROUND .1               
INCH...LOOK FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. I FOLLOWED THE            
COLDER GFS BIAS-CORRECTED MOS GUIDANCE WHICH HIGHLIGHTED MIN TEMPS              
REACHING AROUND -15F IN SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS OF THE EAST HALF.               
THESE FCST TEMPS SEEM TOTALLY REASONABLE GIVEN READINGS OBSERVED                
UPSTREAM THIS MORNING OVER ONTARIO IN PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE. LOWS              
COULD EVEN DROP CLOSE TO -10F FOR FAVORED COLD SPOTS IN THE WESTERN             
INTERIOR BEFORE BOUNDARY LYR WINDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT ON BACK SIDE              
OF RIDGE AND AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM.                          
AFTER A DRY MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TOWARD THE                    
FREEZING MARK IN WSW RETURN FLOW...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE               
MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE TROUGH WILL NOT DIG ENOUGH TO THE                 
SOUTHWEST TO BRING MUCH PCPN INTO UPR MI. BETTER CHANCES FOR PCPN               
WILL BE OVR LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE ERN FCST AREA CLOSER TO THE TRACK             
OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC LOW. KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHC FOR NRN AND            
ERN TIER COUNTIES MON NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC FOR ALL OF THE CWA ON             
TUE EXCEPT FOR LOW CHC POPS IN THE EAST. MODELS 1000-850MB                      
THICKNESSES AND FCST SNDGS SUPPORT MORE SNOW AS PREDOMINANT PCPN                
TYPE MON NIGHT AND TUE. A VERY SHALLOW WARM LAYER NEAR SFC WITH                 
DOWNSLOPING NW WINDS COULD SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE FAR SOUTH             
CENTRAL CWA.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
SCT-BKN LK SC/CU AT EACH SITE. NE-E WINDS KEEP A VERY SMALL CHANCE              
OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS REDEVELOPING AT KSAW...BUT EXPECT MOST OF            
THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR FARTHER INLAND. SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS               
EVENING AND SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE               
RIDGE IS OVER THE AREA.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
30.4 INCH HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD LATE THIS                            
AFTERNOON...BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTH TO WESTERN KENTUCKY BY LATE            
TUESDAY NIGHT.  29.8 INCH LOW PRESSURE FROM MANITOBA MONDAY                     
AFTERNOON...WILL MOVE TO JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY MORNING            
BEFORE SLIDING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS LOW               
WILL BRING ABOUT THE NEXT CHANCE OF WINDS AT OR ABOVE 25 KTS.  HIGH             
PRESSURE OF 30.0 INCHES WILL THEN BRIEFLY TAKE OVER TUESDAY NIGHT               
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. A 29.4 INCH LOW WILL MOVE INTO MANITOBA                   
WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY.                        
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...VOSS                                                      
AVIATION...JLA                                                                  
MARINE...KF                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1241 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...SCT (VFR CIGS) LAKE CLOUDS WILL BE FOUND AT TVC EARLY IN            
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN AND HIGH                 
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OUT OF ONTARIO...WILL LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS            
AT TVC/PLN/APN THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS (AND BEYOND)...WITH SOME               
SCT MID AND HIGH CLOUD MOVING THROUGH.                                          
ADAM                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...ISSUED AT 1036 AM.                                                    
VERY DRY BUT COLD AIRMASS REMAINS THE DOMINANT PLAYER ACROSS                    
NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WITH SOLID BELOW ZERO LOW                        
TEMPERATURES AT MANY INLAND AREAS. VERY WEAK SFC TROUGH BISECTING               
NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF              
ONTARIO. LIGHT NW FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN HAS MANAGED TO GENERATE                
NARROW AREA OF LAKE SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING...                  
IMPACTING THE SW COUNTIES WITH VSBYS STILL BRIEFLY DIPPING TO AROUND            
A MILE OR SO AT FKS/CAD. MINOR OVERNIGHT FLUFFY ACCUMULATIONS OF AN             
INCH OR LESS REPORTED BY SPOTTERS IN THOSE AREAS. FINALLY...MID                 
LEVEL SHEAR AXIS STRETCHES FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE LOWER LAKES                 
GENERATING SOME LIGHT SNOW NEAR CHICAGO AND THROWING HIGH CLOUD                 
COVER INTO NRN MICHIGAN.                                                        
REST OF TODAY...SIMILAR STORY TO THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH MINOR LAKE              
EFFECT CLOUDS/PRECIP STARTING OFF THE DAY. HOWEVER...WEAKENING MEAN             
LOW LEVEL FLOW/A DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS OVER THE REGION/DAYTIME                 
MIXING AND MODERATING LOW LEVEL TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN DISSIPATE LAKE               
STCU AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL SHEAR               
AXIS TO THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO TOSS THICKER MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER            
INTO NRN MICHIGAN...MAINLY THE SRN COUNTIES...BUT MAY HAVE ONLY                 
MINIMAL IMPACT ON PERCEIVED SKY CONDITIONS. OVERALL...PLAN ON HAVING            
SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...PARTLY                 
SUNNY SKIES OVER THE FAR SRN COUNTIES EXCEPT FOR A FEW MORE HOURS OF            
CLOUDY SKIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SW AREAS.                                
BELOW NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ONCE AGAIN...ALTHOUGH WITH                    
MODERATING LOW LEVEL TEMPS...READINGS EXPECTED TO BREAK INTO THE 20S            
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE.                                                          
ADAM                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...03Z SURFACE/RUC ANALYSIS AND IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW              
A PERSISTENT AMPLIFIED PATTERN (POSITIVE PNA) ACROSS NORTH                      
AMERICA...WITH THE EASTERN TROUGH CONSISTING OF DUAL 500MB CLOSED               
LOWS...ONE OVER MINNESOTA...AND THE OTHER OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK.                
WHILE THE LATTER IS EXITING TO THE NE...SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVES                
ROTATING AROUND THE WESTERN UPPER LOW IS SUPPORTING LIGHT SNOW OVER             
MN AND IA IN A REGION OF MODEST 850-500MB -DIVQ.  AIR ACROSS                    
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN IS MUCH DRIER JUDGING BY THE 00Z SOUNDINGS              
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION THANKS TO LOW LEVEL             
RIDGING AND A POLAR CONTINENTAL AIRMASS.  BECAUSE OF THIS DRY                   
AIR...5-10KFT CLOUD DECK SPREADING EAST ACROSS WI/IL IS HAVING A                
DEVIL OF A TIME EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN...RATHER                       
PREFERRING TAKING A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER.  ONLY            
A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXIST FROM MANISTEE TO THE LEELANAU              
PENINSULA AT THIS HOUR.  FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL FOR THIS TIME OF         
THE YEAR...AND CONSISTENT OF NUISANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER                    
POTENTIAL FIRST...THEN SKY AND TEMPS SECOND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.             
TODAY...CLOSED LOW OVER MN WILL SHEAR OUT AS IT MIGRATES TOWARDS THE            
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.  MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ROTATE AROUND              
THE WEAK IOWA SHORTWAVE...PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN                      
IL/IN/OH...AND SPREAD MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN                           
MICHIGAN...THICKER AS YOU HEAD SOUTH.  HOWEVER...VERY DRY AIR                   
CENTERED AROUND 750MB WITH TRAJECTORIES ORIGINATING OUT OF NE                   
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL KEEP THE AREA PRECIP FREE.  LAKE EFFECT WILL            
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO REV UP ESPECIALLY WITH 850MB TEMPS                      
MODERATING FROM -15C TO -13C AND LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW DIMINISHING TO             
LESS THAN 10KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON.  THINK THAT ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWER            
AND FLURRY ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MORNING HOURS FROM THE              
MANISTEE TO GRAND TRAVERSE BAY CORRIDOR AND BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO               
THE LAKE SHORES. AS A RESULT...MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE                     
AFOREMENTIONED AREA WILL SEE PARTLY IF NOT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR               
MUCH OF THE DAY.  HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S LOOK FINE.                        
TONIGHT...SHEARED TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS ACROSS THE STATE AND                    
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL THIN AS A RESULT.  DO NOT BELIEVE                 
THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AND EXPECT             
ANOTHER EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH SURFACE            
HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINING ITS DOMINANCE ACROSS THE AREA.  ONLY                  
POSSIBLE PITFALL IS THAT LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE LATE AND SHALLOW              
INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A COUPLE FLURRIES ALONG THE LAKE                  
MICHIGAN SHORELINE.  BUT THINK DRY AIR (850-700MB RH AROUND 10-20               
PCT) AND LAND BREEZE INTERACTION WILL BE ENOUGH TO THWART ANY FLURRY            
ACTIVITY. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.                       
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES IN ON MONDAY WHILE            
THE BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.                
WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL ENSUE...ENOUGH TO BUMP UP TEMPS INTO THE               
LOW 30S.  OUTSIDE OF SOME MORNING LAKE CLOUDS AND RESULTING DIURNAL             
CU (WHICH SHOULD MIX OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON) AS WEST FLOW                       
STRENGTHENS...MOST AREAS WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY MID TO LATE             
AFTERNOON.  MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARDS              
EVENING AS MOISTURE SPREADS IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SHORTWAVE.             
ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES AS WELL...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE BELOW                
700MB WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIP FROM REACHING THE GROUND.  WITH                   
STRENGTHENING SW FLOW AND INVASION OF WARMER AIR...LOWS WILL BE 15              
TO 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY NIGHT.                                         
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...APPROACHING CLIPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES                 
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN LAKE HURON ON TUESDAY.  BEST QG               
FORCING WILL LIE AHEAD AND TO THE NORTH OF THE SHORTWAVE.  GFS IS AN            
OUTLIER IN THIS REGARD...AND BRINGS A WEAK ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW               
AND WIDE SWATH OF PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...WHILE OTHER LEADING            
MODELS KEEP PRECIP CHANCES NORTH OF THE STRAITS.                                
REGARDLESS...THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST PRECIP WILL FALL AS ALL                   
SNOW...EVEN IN THE SOUTHERN GFS SOLUTION AND HAVE REMOVED RAIN                  
MENTION.  WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POP ALL THE WAY TO M-55 HOWEVER...BUT            
WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF PRECIP CHANCES ARE REMOVED ACROSS THE                  
SOUTHERN CWA.  SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURN               
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  A CHANCE OF PRECIP THEN ARRIVES                  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S              
TO LOW 40S OVER THIS PERIOD.                                                    
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
LH...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1036 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...VERY DRY BUT COLD AIRMASS REMAINS THE DOMINANT PLAYER                 
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WITH SOLID BELOW ZERO LOW                 
TEMPERATURES AT MANY INLAND AREAS. VERY WEAK SFC TROUGH BISECTING               
NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF              
ONTARIO. LIGHT NW FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN HAS MANAGED TO GENERATE                
NARROW AREA OF LAKE SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING...                  
IMPACTING THE SW COUNTIES WITH VSBYS STILL BRIEFLY DIPPING TO AROUND            
A MILE OR SO AT FKS/CAD. MINOR OVERNIGHT FLUFFY ACCUMULATIONS OF AN             
INCH OR LESS REPORTED BY SPOTTERS IN THOSE AREAS. FINALLY...MID                 
LEVEL SHEAR AXIS STRETCHES FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE LOWER LAKES                 
GENERATING SOME LIGHT SNOW NEAR CHICAGO AND THROWING HIGH CLOUD                 
COVER INTO NRN MICHIGAN.                                                        
REST OF TODAY...SIMILAR STORY TO THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH MINOR LAKE              
EFFECT CLOUDS/PRECIP STARTING OFF THE DAY. HOWEVER...WEAKENING MEAN             
LOW LEVEL FLOW/A DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS OVER THE REGION/DAYTIME                 
MIXING AND MODERATING LOW LEVEL TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN DISSIPATE LAKE               
STCU AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL SHEAR               
AXIS TO THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO TOSS THICKER MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER            
INTO NRN MICHIGAN...MAINLY THE SRN COUNTIES...BUT MAY HAVE ONLY                 
MINIMAL IMPACT ON PERCEIVED SKY CONDITIONS. OVERALL...PLAN ON HAVING            
SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...PARTLY                 
SUNNY SKIES OVER THE FAR SRN COUNTIES EXCEPT FOR A FEW MORE HOURS OF            
CLOUDY SKIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SW AREAS.                                
BELOW NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ONCE AGAIN...ALTHOUGH WITH                    
MODERATING LOW LEVEL TEMPS...READINGS EXPECTED TO BREAK INTO THE 20S            
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE.                                                          
ADAM                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...ISSUED AT 705 AM.                                                   
VERY FEW CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LAKE CLOUDS WILL PRODUCE              
MVFR CIGS AND FLURRIES AT TVC THIS MORNING. WEAKENING WIND FIELDS               
COMBINED WITH MIXING SHOULD HELP CIGS RISE AND SCATTER BY MIDDAY OR             
NOT TOO LONG THEREAFTER. OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE DIURNAL CU AROUND                  
MIDDAY AT APN...ALL TAF SITES SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.                
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...03Z SURFACE/RUC ANALYSIS AND IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW              
A PERSISTENT AMPLIFIED PATTERN (POSITIVE PNA) ACROSS NORTH                      
AMERICA...WITH THE EASTERN TROUGH CONSISTING OF DUAL 500MB CLOSED               
LOWS...ONE OVER MINNESOTA...AND THE OTHER OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK.                
WHILE THE LATTER IS EXITING TO THE NE...SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVES                
ROTATING AROUND THE WESTERN UPPER LOW IS SUPPORTING LIGHT SNOW OVER             
MN AND IA IN A REGION OF MODEST 850-500MB -DIVQ.  AIR ACROSS                    
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN IS MUCH DRIER JUDGING BY THE 00Z SOUNDINGS              
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION THANKS TO LOW LEVEL             
RIDGING AND A POLAR CONTINENTAL AIRMASS.  BECAUSE OF THIS DRY                   
AIR...5-10KFT CLOUD DECK SPREADING EAST ACROSS WI/IL IS HAVING A                
DEVIL OF A TIME EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN...RATHER                       
PREFERRING TAKING A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER.  ONLY            
A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXIST FROM MANISTEE TO THE LEELANAU              
PENINSULA AT THIS HOUR.  FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL FOR THIS TIME OF         
THE YEAR...AND CONSISTENT OF NUISANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER                    
POTENTIAL FIRST...THEN SKY AND TEMPS SECOND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.             
TODAY...CLOSED LOW OVER MN WILL SHEAR OUT AS IT MIGRATES TOWARDS THE            
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.  MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ROTATE AROUND              
THE WEAK IOWA SHORTWAVE...PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN                      
IL/IN/OH...AND SPREAD MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN                           
MICHIGAN...THICKER AS YOU HEAD SOUTH.  HOWEVER...VERY DRY AIR                   
CENTERED AROUND 750MB WITH TRAJECTORIES ORIGINATING OUT OF NE                   
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL KEEP THE AREA PRECIP FREE.  LAKE EFFECT WILL            
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO REV UP ESPECIALLY WITH 850MB TEMPS                      
MODERATING FROM -15C TO -13C AND LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW DIMINISHING TO             
LESS THAN 10KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON.  THINK THAT ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWER            
AND FLURRY ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MORNING HOURS FROM THE              
MANISTEE TO GRAND TRAVERSE BAY CORRIDOR AND BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO               
THE LAKE SHORES. AS A RESULT...MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE                     
AFOREMENTIONED AREA WILL SEE PARTLY IF NOT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR               
MUCH OF THE DAY.  HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S LOOK FINE.                        
TONIGHT...SHEARED TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS ACROSS THE STATE AND                    
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL THIN AS A RESULT.  DO NOT BELIEVE                 
THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AND EXPECT             
ANOTHER EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH SURFACE            
HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINING ITS DOMINANCE ACROSS THE AREA.  ONLY                  
POSSIBLE PITFALL IS THAT LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE LATE AND SHALLOW              
INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A COUPLE FLURRIES ALONG THE LAKE                  
MICHIGAN SHORELINE.  BUT THINK DRY AIR (850-700MB RH AROUND 10-20               
PCT) AND LAND BREEZE INTERACTION WILL BE ENOUGH TO THWART ANY FLURRY            
ACTIVITY. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.                       
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES IN ON MONDAY WHILE            
THE BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.                
WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL ENSUE...ENOUGH TO BUMP UP TEMPS INTO THE               
LOW 30S.  OUTSIDE OF SOME MORNING LAKE CLOUDS AND RESULTING DIURNAL             
CU (WHICH SHOULD MIX OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON) AS WEST FLOW                       
STRENGTHENS...MOST AREAS WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY MID TO LATE             
AFTERNOON.  MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARDS              
EVENING AS MOISTURE SPREADS IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SHORTWAVE.             
ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES AS WELL...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE BELOW                
700MB WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIP FROM REACHING THE GROUND.  WITH                   
STRENGTHENING SW FLOW AND INVASION OF WARMER AIR...LOWS WILL BE 15              
TO 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY NIGHT.                                         
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...APPROACHING CLIPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES                 
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN LAKE HURON ON TUESDAY.  BEST QG               
FORCING WILL LIE AHEAD AND TO THE NORTH OF THE SHORTWAVE.  GFS IS AN            
OUTLIER IN THIS REGARD...AND BRINGS A WEAK ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW               
AND WIDE SWATH OF PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...WHILE OTHER LEADING            
MODELS KEEP PRECIP CHANCES NORTH OF THE STRAITS.                                
REGARDLESS...THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST PRECIP WILL FALL AS ALL                   
SNOW...EVEN IN THE SOUTHERN GFS SOLUTION AND HAVE REMOVED RAIN                  
MENTION.  WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POP ALL THE WAY TO M-55 HOWEVER...BUT            
WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF PRECIP CHANCES ARE REMOVED ACROSS THE                  
SOUTHERN CWA.  SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURN               
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  A CHANCE OF PRECIP THEN ARRIVES                  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S              
TO LOW 40S OVER THIS PERIOD.                                                    
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
LH...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
741 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD TROUGH STRETCHING FROM            
NEW ENGLAND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WEAK ENE FLOW AHEAD OF SFC             
RIDGE OVER ONTARIO LOOKS LIKE IT MAY STILL BE PRODUCING FLURRIES IN             
DOWNTOWN MQT BUT OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER THE REST OF              
THE CWA.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
TODAY...SOME LIGHT LES IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER NCNTRL AREAS FAVORED              
BY A ENE FLOW AS 850 MB TEMPS ARE AROUND -15C. SOME INCREASE IN LOW             
LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND FAIRLY STEEP                   
SFC-850 MB LAPSE RATES OF 7C/KM OR GREATER COULD LEAD TO SOME                   
ISOLATED DIURNAL SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST HALF THIS                  
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SFC TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. IF THE WRF-ARW              
QPF VERIFIES...A FEW LOCATIONS UNDER THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS COULD             
SEE CLOSE TO AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION USING A 25/1 SNOW/WATER               
RATIO.                                                                          
TONIGHT...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AS THE SFC RIDGE FROM ONTARIO                   
DESCENDS OVER THE AREA. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND PCPN WATER AROUND .1               
INCH...LOOK FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. I FOLLOWED THE            
COLDER GFS BIAS-CORRECTED MOS GUIDANCE WHICH HIGHLIGHTED MIN TEMPS              
REACHING AROUND -15F IN SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS OF THE EAST HALF.               
THESE FCST TEMPS SEEM TOTALLY REASONABLE GIVEN READINGS OBSERVED                
UPSTREAM THIS MORNING OVER ONTARIO IN PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE. LOWS              
COULD EVEN DROP CLOSE TO -10F FOR FAVORED COLD SPOTS IN THE WESTERN             
INTERIOR BEFORE BOUNDARY LYR WINDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT ON BACK SIDE              
OF RIDGE AND AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM.                          
AFTER A DRY MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TOWARD THE                    
FREEZING MARK IN WSW RETURN FLOW...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE               
MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE TROUGH WILL NOT DIG ENOUGH TO THE                 
SOUTHWEST TO BRING MUCH PCPN INTO UPR MI. BETTER CHANCES FOR PCPN               
WILL BE OVR LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE ERN FCST AREA CLOSER TO THE TRACK             
OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC LOW. KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHC FOR NRN AND            
ERN TIER COUNTIES MON NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC FOR ALL OF THE CWA ON             
TUE EXCEPT FOR LOW CHC POPS IN THE EAST. MODELS 1000-850MB                      
THICKNESSES AND FCST SNDGS SUPPORT MORE SNOW AS PREDOMINANT PCPN                
TYPE MON NIGHT AND TUE. A VERY SHALLOW WARM LAYER NEAR SFC WITH                 
DOWNSLOPING NW WINDS COULD SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE FAR SOUTH             
CENTRAL CWA.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
A STREAM OF MVFR CEIGS THE DEVELOPED OVER UPPER MICHIGAN PRIOR TO               
09Z...BUT HAS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED SINCE THEN.  SO MOSTLY VFR                 
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...BUT HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT MVFR CIGS                    
POSSIBLY COMING IN FROM THE LAKE WITH NE FLOW AND POSSIBLE UPSLOPE              
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
30.4 INCH HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD LATE THIS                            
AFTERNOON...BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTH TO WESTERN KENTUCKY BY LATE            
TUESDAY NIGHT.  29.8 INCH LOW PRESSURE FROM MANITOBA MONDAY                     
AFTERNOON...WILL MOVE TO JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY MORNING            
BEFORE SLIDING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS LOW               
WILL BRING ABOUT THE NEXT CHANCE OF WINDS AT OR ABOVE 25 KTS.  HIGH             
PRESSURE OF 30.0 INCHES WILL THEN BRIEFLY TAKE OVER TUESDAY NIGHT               
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. A 29.4 INCH LOW WILL MOVE INTO MANITOBA                   
WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY.                        
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH 8 AM EDT SUNDAY            
   FOR LSZ267.                                                                  
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...VOSS                                                      
AVIATION...KF                                                                   
MARINE...KF                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
705 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2008                                                       
.AVIATION...VERY FEW CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LAKE CLOUDS               
WILL PRODUCE MVFR CIGS AND FLURRIES AT TVC THIS MORNING. WEAKENING              
WIND FIELDS COMBINED WITH MIXING SHOULD HELP CIGS RISE AND SCATTER              
BY MIDDAY OR NOT TOO LONG THEREAFTER. OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE DIURNAL               
CU AROUND MIDDAY AT APN...ALL TAF SITES SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS               
PREVAIL.                                                                        
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...03Z SURFACE/RUC ANALYSIS AND IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW              
A PERSISTENT AMPLIFIED PATTERN (POSITIVE PNA) ACROSS NORTH                      
AMERICA...WITH THE EASTERN TROUGH CONSISTING OF DUAL 500MB CLOSED               
LOWS...ONE OVER MINNESOTA...AND THE OTHER OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK.                
WHILE THE LATTER IS EXITING TO THE NE...SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVES                
ROTATING AROUND THE WESTERN UPPER LOW IS SUPPORTING LIGHT SNOW OVER             
MN AND IA IN A REGION OF MODEST 850-500MB -DIVQ.  AIR ACROSS                    
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN IS MUCH DRIER JUDGING BY THE 00Z SOUNDINGS              
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION THANKS TO LOW LEVEL             
RIDGING AND A POLAR CONTINENTAL AIRMASS.  BECAUSE OF THIS DRY                   
AIR...5-10KFT CLOUD DECK SPREADING EAST ACROSS WI/IL IS HAVING A                
DEVIL OF A TIME EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN...RATHER                       
PREFERRING TAKING A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER.  ONLY            
A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXIST FROM MANISTEE TO THE LEELANAU              
PENINSULA AT THIS HOUR.  FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL FOR THIS TIME OF         
THE YEAR...AND CONSISTENT OF NUISANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER                    
POTENTIAL FIRST...THEN SKY AND TEMPS SECOND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.             
TODAY...CLOSED LOW OVER MN WILL SHEAR OUT AS IT MIGRATES TOWARDS THE            
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.  MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ROTATE AROUND              
THE WEAK IOWA SHORTWAVE...PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN                      
IL/IN/OH...AND SPREAD MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN                           
MICHIGAN...THICKER AS YOU HEAD SOUTH.  HOWEVER...VERY DRY AIR                   
CENTERED AROUND 750MB WITH TRAJECTORIES ORIGINATING OUT OF NE                   
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL KEEP THE AREA PRECIP FREE.  LAKE EFFECT WILL            
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO REV UP ESPECIALLY WITH 850MB TEMPS                      
MODERATING FROM -15C TO -13C AND LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW DIMINISHING TO             
LESS THAN 10KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON.  THINK THAT ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWER            
AND FLURRY ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MORNING HOURS FROM THE              
MANISTEE TO GRAND TRAVERSE BAY CORRIDOR AND BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO               
THE LAKE SHORES. AS A RESULT...MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE                     
AFOREMENTIONED AREA WILL SEE PARTLY IF NOT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR               
MUCH OF THE DAY.  HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S LOOK FINE.                        
TONIGHT...SHEARED TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS ACROSS THE STATE AND                    
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL THIN AS A RESULT.  DO NOT BELIEVE                 
THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AND EXPECT             
ANOTHER EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH SURFACE            
HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINING ITS DOMINANCE ACROSS THE AREA.  ONLY                  
POSSIBLE PITFALL IS THAT LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE LATE AND SHALLOW              
INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A COUPLE FLURRIES ALONG THE LAKE                  
MICHIGAN SHORELINE.  BUT THINK DRY AIR (850-700MB RH AROUND 10-20               
PCT) AND LAND BREEZE INTERACTION WILL BE ENOUGH TO THWART ANY FLURRY            
ACTIVITY. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.                       
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES IN ON MONDAY WHILE            
THE BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.                
WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL ENSUE...ENOUGH TO BUMP UP TEMPS INTO THE               
LOW 30S.  OUTSIDE OF SOME MORNING LAKE CLOUDS AND RESULTING DIURNAL             
CU (WHICH SHOULD MIX OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON) AS WEST FLOW                       
STRENGTHENS...MOST AREAS WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY MID TO LATE             
AFTERNOON.  MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARDS              
EVENING AS MOISTURE SPREADS IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SHORTWAVE.             
ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES AS WELL...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE BELOW                
700MB WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIP FROM REACHING THE GROUND.  WITH                   
STRENGTHENING SW FLOW AND INVASION OF WARMER AIR...LOWS WILL BE 15              
TO 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY NIGHT.                                         
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...APPROACHING CLIPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES                 
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN LAKE HURON ON TUESDAY.  BEST QG               
FORCING WILL LIE AHEAD AND TO THE NORTH OF THE SHORTWAVE.  GFS IS AN            
OUTLIER IN THIS REGARD...AND BRINGS A WEAK ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW               
AND WIDE SWATH OF PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...WHILE OTHER LEADING            
MODELS KEEP PRECIP CHANCES NORTH OF THE STRAITS.                                
REGARDLESS...THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST PRECIP WILL FALL AS ALL                   
SNOW...EVEN IN THE SOUTHERN GFS SOLUTION AND HAVE REMOVED RAIN                  
MENTION.  WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POP ALL THE WAY TO M-55 HOWEVER...BUT            
WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF PRECIP CHANCES ARE REMOVED ACROSS THE                   
SOUTHERN CWA.  SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURN               
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  A CHANCE OF PRECIP THEN ARRIVES                  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S              
TO LOW 40S OVER THIS PERIOD.                                                    
MPC                                                                             
AVIATION.../ISSUED 1112 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2008/                                  
A QUIET 24 HOURS COMING UP WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. THE                
ONLY CLOUDS THAT WILL BE AROUND WILL BE SCT HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE                   
20000 FT OR SOME SCT LAKE CLOUDS AROUND 3500 FT. NO PRECIPITATION               
IS EXPECTED AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.                   
LUTZ                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
LH...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
422 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...03Z SURFACE/RUC ANALYSIS AND IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW             
A PERSISTENT AMPLIFIED PATTERN (POSITIVE PNA) ACROSS NORTH                      
AMERICA...WITH THE EASTERN TROUGH CONSISTING OF DUAL 500MB CLOSED               
LOWS...ONE OVER MINNESOTA...AND THE OTHER OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK.                
WHILE THE LATTER IS EXITING TO THE NE...SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVES                
ROTATING AROUND THE WESTERN UPPER LOW IS SUPPORTING LIGHT SNOW OVER             
MN AND IA IN A REGION OF MODEST 850-500MB -DIVQ.  AIR ACROSS                    
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN IS MUCH DRIER JUDGING BY THE 00Z SOUNDINGS              
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION THANKS TO LOW LEVEL             
RIDGING AND A POLAR CONTINENTAL AIRMASS.  BECAUSE OF THIS DRY                   
AIR...5-10KFT CLOUD DECK SPREADING EAST ACROSS WI/IL IS HAVING A                
DEVIL OF A TIME EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN...RATHER                       
PREFERRING TAKING A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER.  ONLY            
A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXIST FROM MANISTEE TO THE LEELANAU              
PENINSULA AT THIS HOUR.  FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL FOR THIS TIME OF         
THE YEAR...AND CONSISTENT OF NUISANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER                    
POTENTIAL FIRST...THEN SKY AND TEMPS SECOND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.             
TODAY...CLOSED LOW OVER MN WILL SHEAR OUT AS IT MIGRATES TOWARDS THE            
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.  MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ROTATE AROUND              
THE WEAK IOWA SHORTWAVE...PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN                      
IL/IN/OH...AND SPREAD MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN                           
MICHIGAN...THICKER AS YOU HEAD SOUTH.  HOWEVER...VERY DRY AIR                   
CENTERED AROUND 750MB WITH TRAJECTORIES ORIGINATING OUT OF NE                   
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL KEEP THE AREA PRECIP FREE.  LAKE EFFECT WILL            
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO REV UP ESPECIALLY WITH 850MB TEMPS                      
MODERATING FROM -15C TO -13C AND LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW DIMINISHING TO             
LESS THAN 10KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON.  THINK THAT ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWER            
AND FLURRY ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MORNING HOURS FROM THE              
MANISTEE TO GRAND TRAVERSE BAY CORRIDOR AND BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO               
THE LAKE SHORES. AS A RESULT...MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE                     
AFOREMENTIONED AREA WILL SEE PARTLY IF NOT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR               
MUCH OF THE DAY.  HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S LOOK FINE.                        
TONIGHT...SHEARED TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS ACROSS THE STATE AND                    
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL THIN AS A RESULT.  DO NOT BELIEVE                 
THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AND EXPECT             
ANOTHER EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH SURFACE            
HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINING ITS DOMINANCE ACROSS THE AREA.  ONLY                  
POSSIBLE PITFALL IS THAT LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE LATE AND SHALLOW              
INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A COUPLE FLURRIES ALONG THE LAKE                  
MICHIGAN SHORELINE.  BUT THINK DRY AIR (850-700MB RH AROUND 10-20               
PCT) AND LAND BREEZE INTERACTION WILL BE ENOUGH TO THWART ANY FLURRY            
ACTIVITY. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.                       
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES IN ON MONDAY WHILE            
THE BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.                
WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL ENSUE...ENOUGH TO BUMP UP TEMPS INTO THE               
LOW 30S.  OUTSIDE OF SOME MORNING LAKE CLOUDS AND RESULTING DIURNAL             
CU (WHICH SHOULD MIX OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON) AS WEST FLOW                       
STRENGTHENS...MOST AREAS WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY MID TO LATE             
AFTERNOON.  MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARDS              
EVENING AS MOISTURE SPREADS IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SHORTWAVE.             
ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES AS WELL...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE BELOW                
700MB WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIP FROM REACHING THE GROUND.  WITH                   
STRENGTHENING SW FLOW AND INVASION OF WARMER AIR...LOWS WILL BE 15              
TO 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY NIGHT.                                         
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...APPROACHING CLIPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES                 
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN LAKE HURON ON TUESDAY.  BEST QG               
FORCING WILL LIE AHEAD AND TO THE NORTH OF THE SHORTWAVE.  GFS IS AN            
OUTLIER IN THIS REGARD...AND BRINGS A WEAK ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW               
AND WIDE SWATH OF PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...WHILE OTHER LEADING            
MODELS KEEP PRECIP CHANCES NORTH OF THE STRAITS.                                
REGARDLESS...THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST PRECIP WILL FALL AS ALL                   
SNOW...EVEN IN THE SOUTHERN GFS SOLUTION AND HAVE REMOVED RAIN                  
MENTION.  WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POP ALL THE WAY TO M-55 HOWEVER...BUT            
WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF PRECIP CHANCES ARE REMOVED ACROSS THE                   
SOUTHERN CWA.  SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURN               
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  A CHANCE OF PRECIP THEN ARRIVES                  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S              
TO LOW 40S OVER THIS PERIOD.                                                    
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
AVIATION.../ISSUED 1112 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2008/                                  
A QUIET 24 HOURS COMING UP WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. THE                
ONLY CLOUDS THAT WILL BE AROUND WILL BE SCT HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE                   
20000 FT OR SOME SCT LAKE CLOUDS AROUND 3500 FT. NO PRECIPITATION               
IS EXPECTED AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.                   
LUTZ                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
LH...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1203 AM EST SUN MAR 9 2008                                                      
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION                                                        
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE ERN               
CONUS WITH A MID LEVEL LOW OVER WV/OH ERN MANITOBA INTO NW MN. THIS             
LEFT UPPER MI BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WITH MID LEVEL AND SFC                    
RIDGING. VIS SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOWED THAT THE COMBINATION OF VERY            
DRY AIR UPSTREAM AND DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING HAD HELPED REDUCE                   
REMAINING ENE FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO ONLY A FEW FLURRIES              
VCNTY MARQUETTE. LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NW MN ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID                
LEVEL LOW AND SFC TROF SLIDING MAINLY TO THE SSE.                               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)                                              
EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AS THE MID LEVEL               
LOW MOVES THROUGH MN. HOWEVER...SFC-700 MB MOISTURE WILL REMAIN                 
SCARCE. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL NOT BE QUITE AS FAVORABLE AS LAST              
NIGHT BUT STILL SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF TO -5 TO -10F INLAND             
WITH READINGS 0 TO 10F NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR N CNTRL.                          
850 MB TEMPS NEAR -16C...INCREASING ENE 950 WIND INTO THE 10 TO 20              
KT RANGE ALONG WITH LAND BREEZE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD ALLOW LES TO                 
REGENERATE WITH SOME SCT -SHSN INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI.                           
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR REMAINING AND GENERAL                
ACYC FLOW ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL...UNDER AN INCH.                  
LES MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE MORNING N CNTRL IN AREAS              
FAVORED BY ENE FLOW. SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH             
DIURNAL HEATING COULD LEAD TO A FEW FLURRIES IN ADDITION TO SCT-BKN             
SC INLAND. WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED...FCST DOES NOT INCLUDE                
POPS FOR NOW.                                                                   
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)...                              
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT             
WARM UP...STILL APPEARS THAT TWO MAIN NORTHERN BRANCH ORIGIN TROUGHS            
WILL AFFECT THE AREA WITH CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PCPN. AFTER A DRY            
MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TOWARD NORMAL...CLOUDS WILL BE            
ON THE INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT. TROUGH APPEARS TO NOT DIG ENOUGH TO               
THE SOUTHWEST TO BRING MUCH PCPN INTO UPR MI. BETTER CHANCES FOR                
PCPN RESIDE OVR LK SUPERIOR CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE.               
BASED ON TRENDS FM 1000-850MB THICKNESSES FM GFS/ECMWF SCALED BACK              
THE CHANCE OF ANY RAIN ON TUE. SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY SHALLOW WARM               
LAYER NEAR SFC...ESPECIALLY WHERE NW WINDS DOWNSLOPE IN SOUTH CENTRAL           
CWA.                                                                            
GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE WEEK ARE REPLACED BY              
MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES/WARM AIR ADVECTION ON WED. GFS               
NOW JOINS EARLIER RUNS OF ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN IN TRENDING MUCH                 
SHARPER WITH TROUGH DEVELOPING OVR NORTHERN PLAINS BY 00Z THU.                  
1000-500MB THICKNESSES ABOVE 540DAM...H9 TEMPS NEAR ZERO...AND                  
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SUPPORT TEMPS               
INTO THE MID-UPR 30S.                                                           
TRICK TO FORECAST THEN ARRIVES WED NIGHT AS PCPN DRIVEN BY RIGHT                
ENTRANCE OF JET OVR ONTARIO AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE POISED TO               
CROSS THE REGION. GFS WARMER THAN ECMWF BUT ECMWF IS COOLER THAN 00Z            
RUN YDY. CONFIDENCE INCREASING THAT PCPN WILL OCCUR (LATEST ECMWF               
SHOWS QPF UP TO A HALF INCH 00Z THU THROUGH 00Z FRI)...BUT STILL                
UNCERTAINTY FOR EXPECTED PTYPE. EXPECT A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW...PERHAPS             
FOR THE ENTIRE TIME OR MAYBE AFTER A PERIOD OF SNOW INITIALLY ON WED            
NIGHT. IF TEMPS WARM AS EXPECTED ON WED...THEN NOT TOO CONCERNED                
WITH POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN AS IT WOULD NOT BE A CASE OF AN                
ELEVATED WARM LAYER JUST A RAIN OR SNOW QUESTION BASED ON THE                   
TEMPERATURE IN THE BLYR. TIMING AND EXACT PTYPE WILL LIKELY CHANGE              
BEFORE WED NIGHT AS MODELS HAVE NOT HONED IN ON EXACT IDEA QUITE                
YET.                                                                            
PCPN TAPERS OFF THU NIGHT ONCE TEMPS BECOME SUFFICIENTLY COLDER FOR             
JUST SNOW. TROUGH WITH MARGINALLY COLD AIR FOR DIURNAL AND/OR LK                
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO                    
SATURDAY. SO...AFTER A BRIEF WARMING TREND THE MIDDLE OF THIS                   
WEEK...TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL VALUES BY             
NEXT WEEKEND.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE A WHILE LONGER AT KSAW OVERNIGHT WITH            
NE FLOW OFF THE LAKE. WITH DRY AIR ON SUN...THINK VFR CONDITIONS                
WILL CONTINUE...BUT HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY COMING IN            
FROM THE LAKE WITH NE FLOW AND POSSIBLE UPSLOPE. WILL GO WITH THE               
DRY AIR WINNING OUT AND KEEPING IT VFR FOR NOW. MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE             
BACK INTO KCMX WITH EAST WIND LATE TONIGHT...THEN AS THE WIND                   
BECOMES LIGHT AND VAR LATE SUN...SHOULD GO BACK TO VFR.                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT OVER EASTERN LAKE                    
SUPERIOR AS NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE IN            
A TIGHTENING GRADIENT BTWN HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND A            
TROUGH INTO LOWER MI. THE HIGH SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH ON                     
MONDAY...MAKING WAY FOR A 29.8 INCH LOW OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA MONDAY            
NIGHT TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL BRING                 
INCREASED WRLY WINDS...UP TO 30 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.0 INCHES             
WILL BRIEFLY TAKE OVER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS A 29.5 INCH             
LOW DEVELOPS OVER MANITOBA.                                                     
&&                                                                              
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ267.              
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...JLB                                                       
LONG TERM...JLA                                                                 
AVIATION...GJM                                                                  
MARINE...JLB                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
630 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2008                                                       
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION                                                        
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE ERN               
CONUS WITH A MID LEVEL LOW OVER WV/OH ERN MANITOBA INTO NW MN. THIS             
LEFT UPPER MI BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WITH MID LEVEL AND SFC                    
RIDGING. VIS SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOWED THAT THE COMBINATION OF VERY            
DRY AIR UPSTREAM AND DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING HAD HELPED REDUCE                   
REMAINING ENE FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO ONLY A FEW FLURRIES              
VCNTY MARQUETTE. LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NW MN ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID                
LEVEL LOW AND SFC TROF SLIDING MAINLY TO THE SSE.                               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)                                              
EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AS THE MID LEVEL               
LOW MOVES THROUGH MN. HOWEVER...SFC-700 MB MOISTURE WILL REMAIN                 
SCARCE. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL NOT BE QUITE AS FAVORABLE AS LAST              
NIGHT BUT STILL SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF TO -5 TO -10F INLAND             
WITH READINGS 0 TO 10F NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR N CNTRL.                          
850 MB TEMPS NEAR -16C...INCREASING ENE 950 WIND INTO THE 10 TO 20              
KT RANGE ALONG WITH LAND BREEZE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD ALLOW LES TO                 
REGENERATE WITH SOME SCT -SHSN INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI.                           
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR REMAINING AND GENERAL                
ACYC FLOW ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL...UNDER AN INCH.                  
LES MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE MORNING N CNTRL IN AREAS              
FAVORED BY ENE FLOW. SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH             
DIURNAL HEATING COULD LEAD TO A FEW FLURRIES IN ADDITION TO SCT-BKN             
SC INLAND. WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED...FCST DOES NOT INCLUDE                
POPS FOR NOW.                                                                   
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)...                              
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT             
WARM UP...STILL APPEARS THAT TWO MAIN NORTHERN BRANCH ORIGIN TROUGHS            
WILL AFFECT THE AREA WITH CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PCPN. AFTER A DRY            
MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TOWARD NORMAL...CLOUDS WILL BE            
ON THE INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT. TROUGH APPEARS TO NOT DIG ENOUGH TO               
THE SOUTHWEST TO BRING MUCH PCPN INTO UPR MI. BETTER CHANCES FOR                
PCPN RESIDE OVR LK SUPERIOR CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE.               
BASED ON TRENDS FM 1000-850MB THICKNESSES FM GFS/ECMWF SCALED BACK              
THE CHANCE OF ANY RAIN ON TUE. SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY SHALLOW WARM               
LAYER NEAR SFC...ESPECIALLY WHERE NW WINDS DOWNSLOPE IN SOUTH CENTRAL           
CWA.                                                                            
GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE WEEK ARE REPLACED BY              
MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES/WARM AIR ADVECTION ON WED. GFS               
NOW JOINS EARLIER RUNS OF ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN IN TRENDING MUCH                 
SHARPER WITH TROUGH DEVELOPING OVR NORTHERN PLAINS BY 00Z THU.                  
1000-500MB THICKNESSES ABOVE 540DAM...H9 TEMPS NEAR ZERO...AND                  
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SUPPORT TEMPS               
INTO THE MID-UPR 30S.                                                           
TRICK TO FORECAST THEN ARRIVES WED NIGHT AS PCPN DRIVEN BY RIGHT                
ENTRANCE OF JET OVR ONTARIO AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE POISED TO               
CROSS THE REGION. GFS WARMER THAN ECMWF BUT ECMWF IS COOLER THAN 00Z            
RUN YDY. CONFIDENCE INCREASING THAT PCPN WILL OCCUR (LATEST ECMWF               
SHOWS QPF UP TO A HALF INCH 00Z THU THROUGH 00Z FRI)...BUT STILL                
UNCERTAINTY FOR EXPECTED PTYPE. EXPECT A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW...PERHAPS             
FOR THE ENTIRE TIME OR MAYBE AFTER A PERIOD OF SNOW INITIALLY ON WED            
NIGHT. IF TEMPS WARM AS EXPECTED ON WED...THEN NOT TOO CONCERNED                
WITH POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN AS IT WOULD NOT BE A CASE OF AN                
ELEVATED WARM LAYER JUST A RAIN OR SNOW QUESTION BASED ON THE                   
TEMPERATURE IN THE BLYR. TIMING AND EXACT PTYPE WILL LIKELY CHANGE              
BEFORE WED NIGHT AS MODELS HAVE NOT HONED IN ON EXACT IDEA QUITE                
YET.                                                                            
PCPN TAPERS OFF THU NIGHT ONCE TEMPS BECOME SUFFICIENTLY COLDER FOR             
JUST SNOW. TROUGH WITH MARGINALLY COLD AIR FOR DIURNAL AND/OR LK                
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO                    
SATURDAY. SO...AFTER A BRIEF WARMING TREND THE MIDDLE OF THIS                   
WEEK...TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL VALUES BY             
NEXT WEEKEND.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
MVFR CIGS SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND               
LAKE EFFECT SNOW DIMINISHES. NE FLOW WILL PICK UP ENOUGH LATE                   
TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING FOR ADDITIONAL MVFR CIGS TO RETURN AND LAST            
THROUGH THE DAY.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT OVER EASTERN LAKE                    
SUPERIOR AS NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE IN            
A TIGHTENING GRADIENT BTWN HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND A            
TROUGH INTO LOWER MI. THE HIGH SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH ON                     
MONDAY...MAKING WAY FOR A 29.8 INCH LOW OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA MONDAY            
NIGHT TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL BRING                 
INCREASED WRLY WINDS...UP TO 30 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.0 INCHES             
WILL BRIEFLY TAKE OVER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS A 29.5 INCH             
LOW DEVELOPS OVER MANITOBA.                                                     
&&                                                                              
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ267.              
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...JLB                                                       
LONG TERM...JLA                                                                 
AVIATION...TAG                                                                  
MARINE...JLB                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
410 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE ERN               
CONUS WITH A MID LEVEL LOW OVER WV/OH ERN MANITOBA INTO NW MN. THIS             
LEFT UPPER MI BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WITH MID LEVEL AND SFC                    
RIDGING. VIS SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOWED THAT THE COMBINATION OF VERY            
DRY AIR UPSTREAM AND DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING HAD HELPED REDUCE                   
REMAINING ENE FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO ONLY A FEW FLURRIES              
VCNTY MARQUETTE. LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NW MN ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID                
LEVEL LOW AND SFC TROF SLIDING MAINLY TO THE SSE.                               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)                                              
EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AS THE MID LEVEL               
LOW MOVES THROUGH MN. HOWEVER...SFC-700 MB MOISTURE WILL REMAIN                 
SCARCE. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL NOT BE QUITE AS FAVORABLE AS LAST              
NIGHT BUT STILL SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF TO -5 TO -10F INLAND             
WITH READINGS 0 TO 10F NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR N CNTRL.                          
850 MB TEMPS NEAR -16C...INCREASING ENE 950 WIND INTO THE 10 TO 20              
KT RANGE ALONG WITH LAND BREEZE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD ALLOW LES TO                 
REGENERATE WITH SOME SCT -SHSN INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI.                           
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR REMAINING AND GENERAL                
ACYC FLOW ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL...UNDER AN INCH.                  
LES MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE MORNING N CNTRL IN AREAS              
FAVORED BY ENE FLOW. SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH             
DIURNAL HEATING COULD LEAD TO A FEW FLURRIES IN ADDITION TO SCT-BKN             
SC INLAND. WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED...FCST DOES NOT INCLUDE                
POPS FOR NOW.                                                                   
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)...                              
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT             
WARM UP...STILL APPEARS THAT TWO MAIN NORTHERN BRANCH ORIGIN TROUGHS            
WILL AFFECT THE AREA WITH CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PCPN. AFTER A DRY            
MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TOWARD NORMAL...CLOUDS WILL BE            
ON THE INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT. TROUGH APPEARS TO NOT DIG ENOUGH TO               
THE SOUTHWEST TO BRING MUCH PCPN INTO UPR MI. BETTER CHANCES FOR                
PCPN RESIDE OVR LK SUPERIOR CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE.               
BASED ON TRENDS FM 1000-850MB THICKNESSES FM GFS/ECMWF SCALED BACK              
THE CHANCE OF ANY RAIN ON TUE. SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY SHALLOW WARM               
LAYER NEAR SFC...ESPECIALLY WHERE NW WINDS DOWNSLOPE IN SOUTH CENTRAL           
CWA.                                                                            
GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE WEEK ARE REPLACED BY              
MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES/WARM AIR ADVECTION ON WED. GFS               
NOW JOINS EARLIER RUNS OF ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN IN TRENDING MUCH                 
SHARPER WITH TROUGH DEVELOPING OVR NORTHERN PLAINS BY 00Z THU.                  
1000-500MB THICKNESSES ABOVE 540DAM...H9 TEMPS NEAR ZERO...AND                  
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SUPPORT TEMPS               
INTO THE MID-UPR 30S.                                                           
TRICK TO FORECAST THEN ARRIVES WED NIGHT AS PCPN DRIVEN BY RIGHT                
ENTRANCE OF JET OVR ONTARIO AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE POISED TO               
CROSS THE REGION. GFS WARMER THAN ECMWF BUT ECMWF IS COOLER THAN 00Z            
RUN YDY. CONFIDENCE INCREASING THAT PCPN WILL OCCUR (LATEST ECMWF               
SHOWS QPF UP TO A HALF INCH 00Z THU THROUGH 00Z FRI)...BUT STILL                
UNCERTAINTY FOR EXPECTED PTYPE. EXPECT A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW...PERHAPS             
FOR THE ENTIRE TIME OR MAYBE AFTER A PERIOD OF SNOW INITIALLY ON WED            
NIGHT. IF TEMPS WARM AS EXPECTED ON WED...THEN NOT TOO CONCERNED                
WITH POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN AS IT WOULD NOT BE A CASE OF AN                
ELEVATED WARM LAYER JUST A RAIN OR SNOW QUESTION BASED ON THE                   
TEMPERATURE IN THE BLYR. TIMING AND EXACT PTYPE WILL LIKELY CHANGE              
BEFORE WED NIGHT AS MODELS HAVE NOT HONED IN ON EXACT IDEA QUITE                
YET.                                                                            
PCPN TAPERS OFF THU NIGHT ONCE TEMPS BECOME SUFFICIENTLY COLDER FOR             
JUST SNOW. TROUGH WITH MARGINALLY COLD AIR FOR DIURNAL AND/OR LK                
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO                    
SATURDAY. SO...AFTER A BRIEF WARMING TREND THE MIDDLE OF THIS                   
WEEK...TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL VALUES BY             
NEXT WEEKEND.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
AT KSAW...MVFR CIG WITH DIRUNAL SC AIDED BY WEAK ADVECTION OF LAKE              
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA ON LIGHT NE WINDS WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE               
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT.              
NE FLOW WILL PICK UP ENOUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING FOR                   
ADDITIONAL MVFR CIGS.                                                           
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCMX UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY WHEN SOME                
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AS LAKE MOISTURE PUSHES TOWARD THE AREA AS               
LOW LEVEL NE WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY.                                           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT OVER EASTERN LAKE                    
SUPERIOR AS NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE IN            
A TIGHTENING GRADIENT BTWN HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND A            
TROUGH INTO LOWER MI. THE HIGH SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH ON                     
MONDAY...MAKING WAY FOR A 29.8 INCH LOW OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA MONDAY            
NIGHT TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL BRING                 
INCREASED WRLY WINDS...UP TO 30 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.0 INCHES             
WILL BRIEFLY TAKE OVER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS A 29.5 INCH             
LOW DEVELOPS OVER MANITOBA.                                                     
&&                                                                              
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ267.              
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...JLB                                                       
LONG TERM...JLA                                                                 
AVIATION...JLB                                                                  
MARINE...JLB                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1250 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2008                                                      
UPDATED FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE                                                    
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A               
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FROM E OF HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE WRN GREAT                
LAKES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE IN NW            
FLOW WAS DESCENDING SOUTH THROUGH MANITOBA INTO NORTH DAKOTA EARLY              
THIS MORNING. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM JAMES BAY INTO WRN             
LAKE SUPERIOR AND WRN WI. WEAK NRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE                 
RIDGE AXIS COMBINED WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -21C CONTINUED TO                  
SUPPORT WEAK MULTIPLE WIND PARALLEL LES BANDS INTO ALGER-LUCE AND               
NRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES. VERY DRY AIR AND EXTENSIVE ICE COVER HAS              
LIMITED LES INTO NW UPPER MI WITH ONLY WEAK BANDS OVER THE KEWEENAW             
PENINSULA NORTH OF HOUGHTON PER IR SATELLITE LOOP.                              
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO NOSEDIVE              
THIS MORNING. -24F TEMPS WERE REPORTED AT BOTH THE WAKEFIELD AND                
STONINGTON RAWS SITES WITHIN THE PAST HR WITH -19F AT THE NWS MQT.              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE LES TRENDS AND MIN TEMPS.                                
WIDELY-SPACED AND WEAK LES BANDS OVER THE ERN AND NCNTRL COUNTIES OF            
THE FCST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEGATIVELY IMPACTED INTO SUNDAY BY            
ANTICYCLONIC N-NE FLOW AND VERY DRY AIR UPSTREAM. WILL KEEP CHC POPS            
IN FOR NCNTRL COUNTIES INTO SUNDAY BUT EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS TO BE               
LESS THAN INCH FOR ANY 12 HR PERIOD. DIURNAL HEATING AND VERY LIGHT             
WIND FIELD WILL ALSO FURTHER DISRUPT WEAK LES BANDS DURING THE                  
DAYTIME.                                                                        
EVENTUALLY...TEMPS WARMING TO -13/-14C AT TOP OF THE INVERSION AND              
LIGHT WIND FIELD SHOULD ALLOW LES TO END BY SUN EVENING. CONTINUED              
RIDGING WILL KEEP THE FCST AREA DRY INTO MONDAY.                                
TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND AS DAYTIME HIGHS REACH INTO              
THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20F ON SATURDAY AND LOW TO MID 20S ON                 
SUNDAY. WAA IN WRLY FLOW AHEAD OF NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING                
HIGHS ON MONDAY INTO THE LOW 30S. DESPITE THE SLOWLY MODERATING                 
AIRMASS...IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES              
AND LOW PCPN WATER VALUES AROUND .1 INCH OR LESS WILL ALLOW INLAND              
READINGS TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BLO ZERO SAT NIGHT AND SUN              
NIGHT.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
AT KSAW...MVFR CIG WITH DIRUNAL SC AIDED BY WEAK ADVECTION OF LAKE              
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA ON LIGHT NE WINDS WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE               
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT.              
NE FLOW WILL PICK UP ENOUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING FOR                   
ADDITIONAL MVFR CIGS.                                                           
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCMX UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY WHEN SOME                
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AS LAKE MOISTURE PUSHES TOWARD THE AREA AS               
LOW LEVEL NE WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY.                                           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
FREEZING SPRAY WILL REMAIN THE MAIN CONCERN AS A COLD AIRMASS                   
REMAINS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AVERAGING 30.4 INCHES WILL DOMINATE              
THE GREAT LAKES AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND....WITH LIGHT WINDS LESS               
THAN 20KTS EXPECTED.  THIS HIGH SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH ON                    
MONDAY...MAKING WAY FOR A 29.8 INCH LOW OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA MONDAY            
NIGHT TO CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY.  INCREASED WINDS MONDAY...BUT             
STILL BELOW 30KTS.  HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.0 INCHES WILL BRIEFLY TAKE              
OVER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS A 29.5 INCH LOW DEVELOPS OVER             
MANITOBA.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING TO 8 AM               
  EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ267.                                                        
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...VOSS                                                                 
DISCUSSION...VOSS                                                               
AVIATION...KF                                                                   
MARINE...KF                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1225 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO                     
PROVIDE PERIODIC MVFR CIGS/VISBYS FOR KAPN AS LIGHT LAKE EFFECT                 
SNOW SHOWERS HEAD ONSHORE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THINK                
OVERLAND MIXING WILL EVENTUALLY OVERCOME THIS...SO IMPROVING                    
CONDITIONS EXPECTED...AIDED BY FLOW TURNING MORE NORTHERLY BY 00Z               
TONIGHT. FOR KTVC/KPLN...PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN PLACE AND                         
NORTH/NORTHEAST DOWNSLOPING WIND FLOW WILL ENSURE A CONTINUATION                
OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES INTO THE EVENING. FLOW EXPECTED TO TURN MORE              
NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD BRING BACK THE STRATOCU                  
TOWARD KTVC ALONG WITH PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES...BUT OVERALL VERY                
DRY AIRMASS SHOULD HELP KEEP THINGS IN CHECK.                                   
LAWRENCE                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2008/                         
FEW CHANGES NEEDED TO GOING FCST...WITH YET ANOTHER MAINLY QUIET                
WX DAY ON TAP FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN. CLOSED UPR LOW ADVANCING THRU              
CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS MORNING WILL MAINTAIN WEAK MID LEVEL                      
SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVR THE REGION INTO THE AFTN...AS ASSOCIATED SFC              
LOW TRACKS TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW YORK BY 00Z TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD                 
HOLD THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THRU EARLY                  
AFTN...BEFORE FLOW BACKS MORE NORTHERLY BY EVENING IN THE WAKE OF               
THIS SYSTEM. DESPITE OVERALL PATHETIC BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE                   
PROFILES (900-700MB RH ONLY AROUND 25%)...DECENT TRAJECTORIES                   
ACROSS LAKE HURON AND NEARLY PERFECT TEMP PROFILES (900-800MB                   
TEMPS RUNNING RIGHT AROUND -15C) FOR SNOW GROWTH SHOULD MAINTAIN                
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES INTO THE AFTN ACROSS MAINLY NORTHEAST               
LOWER COUNTIES. IN FACT...EXPECT AN UPTICK IN FLURRIES THRU LATE                
MORNING/ EARLY AFTN AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND FLOW INCREASES (H85                
WINDS PROGGED 20 KNOTS BY 18Z)...AIDING IN AN INCREASING MOISTURE               
FLUX FURTHER INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COUPLED WITH MARCH                        
SUNSHINE... SHOULD AGAIN SEE A STRATOCU RESPONSE BEFORE                         
ENTRAINMENT OF VERY AIR PER 12Z APX RAOB LIKELY WINS OUT TO YIELD               
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS BY AFTN. AS FOR TEMPS... CERTAINLY ANOTHER              
COOL ONE FOR EARLY MARCH AS MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS REMAINS FIRMLY              
ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION...WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND -15C THRU THE                
DAY AND ANALOG TO YESTERDAY (WHEN H85 TEMPS JUST A HAIR COLDER)                 
SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE UPR TEENS HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 20S NEAR                
THE COASTS.                                                                     
LAWRENCE                                                                        
DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2008/                                
UPDATE...A QUICK UPDATE TO REFLECT DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SNOW AND                
FLURRIES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MOISTURE FLUXES DUE TO NE FLOW                
OFF LAKE HURON COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL LOWER              
HAS HELPED AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES TO GENERATE OVER THE              
PAST HOUR OR SO. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO                   
OCCUR...HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO INCLUDE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND                
FLURRIES FARTHER WEST THROUGH THE MORNING. LITTLE TO NO                         
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.                                                     
NEW ZONES OUT SHORTLY.                                                          
MPC                                                                             
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2008/                           
DISCUSSION...03Z SURFACE/RUC ANALYSIS AND IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY                   
CONTINUE TO SHOW A AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...WITH A              
WESTERN NOAM RIDGE AND A DEEP TROUGH RANGING FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE             
GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST.  CIRRUS SHIELD JUST AHEAD OF THE                 
TROUGH AXIS WITHIN CONFLUENT MID-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO SCRAPE BY              
THE SE CWA...WHILE SW-NE ORIENTATED SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS SUPPLYING             
THE AREA WITH EXCEPTIONALLY DRY AIR (PWAT 0.06 IN) THAT HAS                     
PREVENTED ANY PRECIP RELATED FROM THE POTENT STORM OVER THE                     
MID-ATLANTIC REGION FROM REACHING THIS FAR NORTH.  HOWEVER...THIS               
SURFACE HIGH IS ALSO PROVIDING THE AREA WITH AN ARCTIC AIRMASS                  
(850MB TEMP -19C) AND INSTABILITY NEEDED TO GENERATE LAKE EFFECT                
SNOW (LES).  THIS SNOW HAS BEEN MOSTLY CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG THE              
WEST ARM OF GRAND TRAVERSE BAY AND THE LEELANAU PENINSULA AND                   
WHITEFISH POINT...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACTIVITY ALONG THE LAKE              
HURON SHORELINE.  WITH THE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE EAST               
COAST STORM WILL PASS WELL EAST OF THE AREA...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT                 
PRECIP IS THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.                              
TODAY...POTENT MID-ATLANTIC STORM WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS IT                 
MOVES TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY THIS EVENING.  AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT            
TIGHTENS A BIT...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTH TO NE                
THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN BACK TO THE NORTH BY EARLY THIS EVENING.                  
ALTHOUGH 850MB TEMPS MODERATE FROM THE UPPER NEG TEENS TO THE MID               
NEG TEENS...LOW-MID LEVEL WIND TRAJECTORIES ORIGINATE FROM A HUDSON             
BAY HIGH WHICH WILL MAINTAIN VERY DRY AIR (850-700MB RH 15-25 PCT)              
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN.  THIS DRY AIR WILL KEEP A CAP ON LES                  
POTENTIAL OFF LAKE HURON DESPITE THE REASONABLY LONG FETCHES.  AS A             
RESULT...LOW CHANCY POPS ARE STILL WARRANTED FOR THE MORNING FROM               
ALPENA TO TAWAS BEFORE DIURNAL MIXING AND BACKING WINDS HELP TO                 
DIMINISH LES ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON.  LITTLE TO NO                       
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.  OTHERWISE...ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF                
NORTHERN MICHIGAN...LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO BE                           
HAD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS DOWNSLOPING AREAS OF NW LOWER AND EASTERN               
UPPER.  UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG WITH MOISTURE FLUX OFF HURON WILL HELP               
DIURNAL CU FORM OVER THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT            
THINK MIXING WILL ERODE THIS CLOUD COVER TOWARDS MID AND LATE                   
AFTERNOON.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS NORTH TO MID 20S              
SOUTH.                                                                          
TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE                
WHICH WOULD PLACE NORTHERN MICHIGAN BETWEEN THE DEEP LOW TO OUR                 
EAST...AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO OUR WEST.  THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL            
SLIDE FROM THE UPPER GREAT PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN MN/WISCONSIN                  
BORDER AND WILL SPREAD UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA.                    
HOWEVER...VERY DRY LOW/MID LEVEL AIR (850-700MB RH 10-20 PCT) WILL              
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA WHILE ALL ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL RESIDE TO               
OUR SW.  THIS WILL KEEP ALL SYNOPTIC PRECIP AWAY FROM THE                       
REGION...WHICH LEAVES LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES AS THE PRIMARY SNOW                 
CHANCE.  850MB TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY AROUND -15C AND CYCLONIC LOW              
LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.  GIVEN THE OVERWHELMING DRY AIR IN             
PLACE...HARD TO IMAGINE ANYTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES ALONG THE LAKE              
MICHIGAN SHORELINE AND NEAR APN AS WIND BECOME LOCKED IN THE NNW                
DIRECTION.  ADDITIONALLY...GIVEN THE EXPECTED THINNESS OF THE                   
CIRRUS...DO NOT BELIEVE THE CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT             
ON LOW TEMPS OUTSIDE OF THE SW CWA.  THEREFORE...THE TYPICAL COLD               
SPOTS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NE LOWER STILL LOOK TO GO BELOW ZERO             
ONCE AGAIN.                                                                     
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VERY LITTLE TO CHANGE OVER THESE PERIODS.             
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FORCING WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE                   
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WHILE HIGH                
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ITS DOMINANCE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.             
850MB TEMPS DO MODERATE A COUPLE DEGREES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHILE              
VERY DRY AIR (850-700MB RH 10-20 PCT) WILL REMAIN PRESENT.  WILL                
KEEP A CHANCE OF FLURRIES DURING THE MORNING AROUND THE GTV BAY                 
REGION AND VICINITY BEFORE NNW WINDS SUBSIDE TO 10KTS OR LESS AS THE            
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS.  OUTSIDE OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS...ANOTHER              
NICE DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.  COULD BE ANOTHER GOOD             
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT IF THE HIGH CLOUDS DISSIPATE.  WILL LOWER             
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES SINCE BELIEVE THE HIGH CLOUDS WONT IMPACT THE               
COOLING CURVE THAT MUCH.                                                        
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...POSITIVE PNA PATTERN FINALLY BREAKS DOWN             
DURING THIS PERIODS AS A BARRAGE OF PACIFIC SHORTWAVES WITHIN FAST              
ZONAL FLOW BEAT DOWN THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE.  AS A RESULT...WARMER              
AIR OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WILL TRY TO WARM THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE              
GREAT LAKES CLOSER TO THE NORM.  FIRST OF THE PACIFIC WAVES IS DUE              
TO PASS OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY.  GFS BRINGS A MORE            
SOUTHERLY TRACK WITH THIS WAVE...WHICH WOULD PROVIDE NORTHERN                   
MICHIGAN WITH PRECIP...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE FORCING NORTH OF               
THE AREA.  WILL KEEP CONTINUITY FOR NOW.  REGARDLESS...FORCING AND              
MOISTURE ARE LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE AND IT DOESNT LOOK TO BE A BIG                
DEAL.  OUTSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK DRY.                  
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LHZ348-349.                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1003 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...FEW CHANGES NEEDED TO GOING FCST...WITH YET ANOTHER MAINLY            
QUIET WX DAY ON TAP FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN. CLOSED UPR LOW ADVANCING             
THRU CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS MORNING WILL MAINTAIN WEAK MID LEVEL                 
SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVR THE REGION INTO THE AFTN...AS ASSOCIATED SFC              
LOW TRACKS TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW YORK BY 00Z TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD HOLD            
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THRU EARLY                       
AFTN...BEFORE FLOW BACKS MORE NORTHERLY BY EVENING IN THE WAKE OF               
THIS SYSTEM. DESPITE OVERALL PATHETIC BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE                   
PROFILES (900-700MB RH ONLY AROUND 25%)...DECENT TRAJECTORIES ACROSS            
LAKE HURON AND NEARLY PERFECT TEMP PROFILES (900-800MB TEMPS RUNNING            
RIGHT AROUND -15C) FOR SNOW GROWTH SHOULD MAINTAIN LIGHT SNOW                   
SHOWERS/FLURRIES INTO THE AFTN ACROSS MAINLY NORTHEAST LOWER                    
COUNTIES. IN FACT...EXPECT AN UPTICK IN FLURRIES THRU LATE MORNING/             
EARLY AFTN AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND FLOW INCREASES (H85 WINDS                   
PROGGED 20 KNOTS BY 18Z)...AIDING IN AN INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX                
FURTHER INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COUPLED WITH MARCH SUNSHINE...                 
SHOULD AGAIN SEE A STRATOCU RESPONSE BEFORE ENTRAINMENT OF VERY                 
AIR PER 12Z APX RAOB LIKELY WINS OUT TO YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY                      
CONDITIONS BY AFTN. AS FOR TEMPS... CERTAINLY ANOTHER COOL ONE FOR              
EARLY MARCH AS MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED                
OVER THE REGION...WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND -15C THRU THE DAY AND                   
ANALOG TO YESTERDAY (WHEN H85 TEMPS JUST A HAIR COLDER) SUGGESTING              
HIGHS IN THE UPR TEENS HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 20S NEAR THE COASTS.               
LAWRENCE                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION... /ISSUED 605 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2008/                                 
NE WINDS OFF LAKE HURON WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWER               
ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS MORNING FOR APN...BEFORE MIXING WILL PROVIDE              
MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR DECK AT PLN SHOULD               
BE TEMPORARY DUE TO THE LIMITED FETCH OFF LAKE HURON AND THE DRIER              
DRAINAGE FLOW OUT OF ONTARIO POSSIBLY MOVING IN...AND WILL RETURN               
VFR CONDITIONS AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER TAF ISSUANCE. TVC LOOKS TO BE               
IN THE CLEAR UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW               
AND BRINGS LAKE CLOUDS INLAND. HOWEVER...THINK CIGS WILL REMAIN                 
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR TVC.                                             
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2008/                           
UPDATE...A QUICK UPDATE TO REFLECT DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SNOW AND                
FLURRIES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MOISTURE FLUXES DUE TO NE FLOW                
OFF LAKE HURON COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL LOWER              
HAS HELPED AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES TO GENERATE OVER THE              
PAST HOUR OR SO. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO                   
OCCUR...HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO INCLUDE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND                
FLURRIES FARTHER WEST THROUGH THE MORNING. LITTLE TO NO                         
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.                                                     
NEW ZONES OUT SHORTLY.                                                          
MPC                                                                             
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2008/                           
DISCUSSION...03Z SURFACE/RUC ANALYSIS AND IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY                   
CONTINUE TO SHOW A AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...WITH A              
WESTERN NOAM RIDGE AND A DEEP TROUGH RANGING FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE             
GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST.  CIRRUS SHIELD JUST AHEAD OF THE                 
TROUGH AXIS WITHIN CONFLUENT MID-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO SCRAPE BY              
THE SE CWA...WHILE SW-NE ORIENTATED SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS SUPPLYING             
THE AREA WITH EXCEPTIONALLY DRY AIR (PWAT 0.06 IN) THAT HAS                     
PREVENTED ANY PRECIP RELATED FROM THE POTENT STORM OVER THE                     
MID-ATLANTIC REGION FROM REACHING THIS FAR NORTH.  HOWEVER...THIS               
SURFACE HIGH IS ALSO PROVIDING THE AREA WITH AN ARCTIC AIRMASS                  
(850MB TEMP -19C) AND INSTABILITY NEEDED TO GENERATE LAKE EFFECT                
SNOW (LES).  THIS SNOW HAS BEEN MOSTLY CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG THE              
WEST ARM OF GRAND TRAVERSE BAY AND THE LEELANAU PENINSULA AND                   
WHITEFISH POINT...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACTIVITY ALONG THE LAKE              
HURON SHORELINE.  WITH THE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE EAST               
COAST STORM WILL PASS WELL EAST OF THE AREA...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT                 
PRECIP IS THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.                              
TODAY...POTENT MID-ATLANTIC STORM WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS IT                 
MOVES TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY THIS EVENING.  AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT            
TIGHTENS A BIT...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTH TO NE                
THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN BACK TO THE NORTH BY EARLY THIS EVENING.                  
ALTHOUGH 850MB TEMPS MODERATE FROM THE UPPER NEG TEENS TO THE MID               
NEG TEENS...LOW-MID LEVEL WIND TRAJECTORIES ORIGINATE FROM A HUDSON             
BAY HIGH WHICH WILL MAINTAIN VERY DRY AIR (850-700MB RH 15-25 PCT)              
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN.  THIS DRY AIR WILL KEEP A CAP ON LES                  
POTENTIAL OFF LAKE HURON DESPITE THE REASONABLY LONG FETCHES.  AS A             
RESULT...LOW CHANCY POPS ARE STILL WARRANTED FOR THE MORNING FROM               
ALPENA TO TAWAS BEFORE DIURNAL MIXING AND BACKING WINDS HELP TO                 
DIMINISH LES ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON.  LITTLE TO NO                       
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.  OTHERWISE...ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF                
NORTHERN MICHIGAN...LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO BE                           
HAD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS DOWNSLOPING AREAS OF NW LOWER AND EASTERN               
UPPER.  UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG WITH MOISTURE FLUX OFF HURON WILL HELP               
DIURNAL CU FORM OVER THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT            
THINK MIXING WILL ERODE THIS CLOUD COVER TOWARDS MID AND LATE                   
AFTERNOON.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS NORTH TO MID 20S              
SOUTH.                                                                          
TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE                
WHICH WOULD PLACE NORTHERN MICHIGAN BETWEEN THE DEEP LOW TO OUR                 
EAST...AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO OUR WEST.  THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL            
SLIDE FROM THE UPPER GREAT PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN MN/WISCONSIN                  
BORDER AND WILL SPREAD UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA.                    
HOWEVER...VERY DRY LOW/MID LEVEL AIR (850-700MB RH 10-20 PCT) WILL              
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA WHILE ALL ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL RESIDE TO               
OUR SW.  THIS WILL KEEP ALL SYNOPTIC PRECIP AWAY FROM THE                       
REGION...WHICH LEAVES LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES AS THE PRIMARY SNOW                 
CHANCE.  850MB TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY AROUND -15C AND CYCLONIC LOW              
LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.  GIVEN THE OVERWHELMING DRY AIR IN             
PLACE...HARD TO IMAGINE ANYTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES ALONG THE LAKE              
MICHIGAN SHORELINE AND NEAR APN AS WIND BECOME LOCKED IN THE NNW                
DIRECTION.  ADDITIONALLY...GIVEN THE EXPECTED THINNESS OF THE                   
CIRRUS...DO NOT BELIEVE THE CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT             
ON LOW TEMPS OUTSIDE OF THE SW CWA.  THEREFORE...THE TYPICAL COLD               
SPOTS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NE LOWER STILL LOOK TO GO BELOW ZERO             
ONCE AGAIN.                                                                     
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VERY LITTLE TO CHANGE OVER THESE PERIODS.             
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FORCING WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE                   
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WHILE HIGH                
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ITS DOMINANCE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.             
850MB TEMPS DO MODERATE A COUPLE DEGREES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHILE              
VERY DRY AIR (850-700MB RH 10-20 PCT) WILL REMAIN PRESENT.  WILL                
KEEP A CHANCE OF FLURRIES DURING THE MORNING AROUND THE GTV BAY                 
REGION AND VICINITY BEFORE NNW WINDS SUBSIDE TO 10KTS OR LESS AS THE            
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS.  OUTSIDE OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS...ANOTHER              
NICE DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.  COULD BE ANOTHER GOOD             
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT IF THE HIGH CLOUDS DISSIPATE.  WILL LOWER             
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES SINCE BELIEVE THE HIGH CLOUDS WONT IMPACT THE               
COOLING CURVE THAT MUCH.                                                        
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...POSITIVE PNA PATTERN FINALLY BREAKS DOWN             
DURING THIS PERIODS AS A BARRAGE OF PACIFIC SHORTWAVES WITHIN FAST              
ZONAL FLOW BEAT DOWN THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE.  AS A RESULT...WARMER              
AIR OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WILL TRY TO WARM THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE              
GREAT LAKES CLOSER TO THE NORM.  FIRST OF THE PACIFIC WAVES IS DUE              
TO PASS OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY.  GFS BRINGS A MORE            
SOUTHERLY TRACK WITH THIS WAVE...WHICH WOULD PROVIDE NORTHERN                   
MICHIGAN WITH PRECIP...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE FORCING NORTH OF               
THE AREA.  WILL KEEP CONTINUITY FOR NOW.  REGARDLESS...FORCING AND              
MOISTURE ARE LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE AND IT DOESNT LOOK TO BE A BIG                
DEAL.  OUTSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK DRY.                  
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LHZ348-349.                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
615 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2008                                                       
UPDATED FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE                                                    
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A               
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FROM E OF HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE WRN GREAT                
LAKES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE IN NW            
FLOW WAS DESCENDING SOUTH THROUGH MANITOBA INTO NORTH DAKOTA EARLY              
THIS MORNING. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM JAMES BAY INTO WRN             
LAKE SUPERIOR AND WRN WI. WEAK NRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE                 
RIDGE AXIS COMBINED WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -21C CONTINUED TO                  
SUPPORT WEAK MULTIPLE WIND PARALLEL LES BANDS INTO ALGER-LUCE AND               
NRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES. VERY DRY AIR AND EXTENSIVE ICE COVER HAS              
LIMITED LES INTO NW UPPER MI WITH ONLY WEAK BANDS OVER THE KEWEENAW             
PENINSULA NORTH OF HOUGHTON PER IR SATELLITE LOOP.                              
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO NOSEDIVE              
THIS MORNING. -24F TEMPS WERE REPORTED AT BOTH THE WAKEFIELD AND                
STONINGTON RAWS SITES WITHIN THE PAST HR WITH -19F AT THE NWS MQT.              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE LES TRENDS AND MIN TEMPS.                                
WIDELY-SPACED AND WEAK LES BANDS OVER THE ERN AND NCNTRL COUNTIES OF            
THE FCST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEGATIVELY IMPACTED INTO SUNDAY BY            
ANTICYCLONIC N-NE FLOW AND VERY DRY AIR UPSTREAM. WILL KEEP CHC POPS            
IN FOR NCNTRL COUNTIES INTO SUNDAY BUT EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS TO BE               
LESS THAN INCH FOR ANY 12 HR PERIOD. DIURNAL HEATING AND VERY LIGHT             
WIND FIELD WILL ALSO FURTHER DISRUPT WEAK LES BANDS DURING THE                  
DAYTIME.                                                                        
EVENTUALLY...TEMPS WARMING TO -13/-14C AT TOP OF THE INVERSION AND              
LIGHT WIND FIELD SHOULD ALLOW LES TO END BY SUN EVENING. CONTINUED              
RIDGING WILL KEEP THE FCST AREA DRY INTO MONDAY.                                
TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND AS DAYTIME HIGHS REACH INTO              
THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20F ON SATURDAY AND LOW TO MID 20S ON                 
SUNDAY. WAA IN WRLY FLOW AHEAD OF NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING                
HIGHS ON MONDAY INTO THE LOW 30S. DESPITE THE SLOWLY MODERATING                 
AIRMASS...IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES              
AND LOW PCPN WATER VALUES AROUND .1 INCH OR LESS WILL ALLOW INLAND              
READINGS TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BLO ZERO SAT NIGHT AND SUN              
NIGHT.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CEIGS AND VIS WILL DOMINATE FOR THE MOST PART.  NORTHERLY WINDS             
WILL ASSIST IN BRINGING SMALL BANDS OF LES TO THE REGION.                       
HOWEVER...A STEADY DIRECTION WILL BE DIFFICULT TO COME BY...LEADING             
TO SHIFTING LES POSSIBLY BREAKING UP A LITTLE MORE THAN SHOWN OF THE            
CURRENT RADAR IMG.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
FREEZING SPRAY WILL REMAIN THE MAIN CONCERN AS A COLD AIRMASS                   
REMAINS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AVERAGING 30.4 INCHES WILL DOMINATE              
THE GREAT LAKES AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND....WITH LIGHT WINDS LESS               
THAN 20KTS EXPECTED.  THIS HIGH SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH ON                    
MONDAY...MAKING WAY FOR A 29.8 INCH LOW OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA MONDAY            
NIGHT TO CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY.  INCREASED WINDS MONDAY...BUT             
STILL BELOW 30KTS.  HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.0 INCHES WILL BRIEFLY TAKE              
OVER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS A 29.5 INCH LOW DEVELOPS OVER             
MANITOBA.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING TO 8 AM               
  EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ267.                                                        
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...VOSS                                                                 
DISCUSSION...VOSS                                                               
AVIATION...KF                                                                   
MARINE...KF                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
605 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2008                                                       
.AVIATION...NE WINDS OFF LAKE HURON WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS AND LIGHT               
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS MORNING FOR APN...BEFORE MIXING               
WILL PROVIDE MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR DECK                
AT PLN SHOULD BE TEMPORARY DUE TO THE LIMITED FETCH OFF LAKE HURON              
AND THE DRIER DRAINAGE FLOW OUT OF ONTARIO POSSIBLY MOVING                      
IN...AND WILL RETURN VFR CONDITIONS AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER TAF                    
ISSUANCE. TVC LOOKS TO BE IN THE CLEAR UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON                
WHEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW AND BRINGS LAKE CLOUDS INLAND.                       
HOWEVER...THINK CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR                 
TVC.                                                                            
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2008/                          
UPDATE...A QUICK UPDATE TO REFLECT DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SNOW AND                
FLURRIES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MOISTURE FLUXES DUE TO NE FLOW                
OFF LAKE HURON COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL LOWER              
HAS HELPED AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES TO GENERATE OVER THE              
PAST HOUR OR SO. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO                   
OCCUR...HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO INCLUDE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND                
FLURRIES FARTHER WEST THROUGH THE MORNING. LITTLE TO NO                         
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.                                                     
NEW ZONES OUT SHORTLY.                                                          
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2008/                           
DISCUSSION...03Z SURFACE/RUC ANALYSIS AND IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY                   
CONTINUE TO SHOW A AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...WITH A              
WESTERN NOAM RIDGE AND A DEEP TROUGH RANGING FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE             
GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST.  CIRRUS SHIELD JUST AHEAD OF THE                 
TROUGH AXIS WITHIN CONFLUENT MID-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO SCRAPE BY              
THE SE CWA...WHILE SW-NE ORIENTATED SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS SUPPLYING             
THE AREA WITH EXCEPTIONALLY DRY AIR (PWAT 0.06 IN) THAT HAS                     
PREVENTED ANY PRECIP RELATED FROM THE POTENT STORM OVER THE                     
MID-ATLANTIC REGION FROM REACHING THIS FAR NORTH.  HOWEVER...THIS               
SURFACE HIGH IS ALSO PROVIDING THE AREA WITH AN ARCTIC AIRMASS                  
(850MB TEMP -19C) AND INSTABILITY NEEDED TO GENERATE LAKE EFFECT                
SNOW (LES).  THIS SNOW HAS BEEN MOSTLY CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG THE              
WEST ARM OF GRAND TRAVERSE BAY AND THE LEELANAU PENINSULA AND                   
WHITEFISH POINT...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACTIVITY ALONG THE LAKE              
HURON SHORELINE.  WITH THE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE EAST               
COAST STORM WILL PASS WELL EAST OF THE AREA...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT                 
PRECIP IS THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.                              
TODAY...POTENT MID-ATLANTIC STORM WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS IT                 
MOVES TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY THIS EVENING.  AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT            
TIGHTENS A BIT...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTH TO NE                
THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN BACK TO THE NORTH BY EARLY THIS EVENING.                  
ALTHOUGH 850MB TEMPS MODERATE FROM THE UPPER NEG TEENS TO THE MID               
NEG TEENS...LOW-MID LEVEL WIND TRAJECTORIES ORIGINATE FROM A HUDSON             
BAY HIGH WHICH WILL MAINTAIN VERY DRY AIR (850-700MB RH 15-25 PCT)              
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN.  THIS DRY AIR WILL KEEP A CAP ON LES                  
POTENTIAL OFF LAKE HURON DESPITE THE REASONABLY LONG FETCHES.  AS A             
RESULT...LOW CHANCY POPS ARE STILL WARRANTED FOR THE MORNING FROM               
ALPENA TO TAWAS BEFORE DIURNAL MIXING AND BACKING WINDS HELP TO                 
DIMINISH LES ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON.  LITTLE TO NO                       
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.  OTHERWISE...ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF                
NORTHERN MICHIGAN...LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO BE                           
HAD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS DOWNSLOPING AREAS OF NW LOWER AND EASTERN               
UPPER.  UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG WITH MOISTURE FLUX OFF HURON WILL HELP               
DIURNAL CU FORM OVER THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT            
THINK MIXING WILL ERODE THIS CLOUD COVER TOWARDS MID AND LATE                   
AFTERNOON.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS NORTH TO MID 20S              
SOUTH.                                                                          
TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE                
WHICH WOULD PLACE NORTHERN MICHIGAN BETWEEN THE DEEP LOW TO OUR                 
EAST...AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO OUR WEST.  THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL            
SLIDE FROM THE UPPER GREAT PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN MN/WISCONSIN                  
BORDER AND WILL SPREAD UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA.                    
HOWEVER...VERY DRY LOW/MID LEVEL AIR (850-700MB RH 10-20 PCT) WILL              
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA WHILE ALL ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL RESIDE TO               
OUR SW.  THIS WILL KEEP ALL SYNOPTIC PRECIP AWAY FROM THE                       
REGION...WHICH LEAVES LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES AS THE PRIMARY SNOW                 
CHANCE.  850MB TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY AROUND -15C AND CYCLONIC LOW              
LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.  GIVEN THE OVERWHELMING DRY AIR IN             
PLACE...HARD TO IMAGINE ANYTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES ALONG THE LAKE              
MICHIGAN SHORELINE AND NEAR APN AS WIND BECOME LOCKED IN THE NNW                
DIRECTION.  ADDITIONALLY...GIVEN THE EXPECTED THINNESS OF THE                   
CIRRUS...DO NOT BELIEVE THE CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT             
ON LOW TEMPS OUTSIDE OF THE SW CWA.  THEREFORE...THE TYPICAL COLD               
SPOTS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NE LOWER STILL LOOK TO GO BELOW ZERO             
ONCE AGAIN.                                                                     
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VERY LITTLE TO CHANGE OVER THESE PERIODS.             
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FORCING WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE                   
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WHILE HIGH                
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ITS DOMINANCE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.             
850MB TEMPS DO MODERATE A COUPLE DEGREES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHILE              
VERY DRY AIR (850-700MB RH 10-20 PCT) WILL REMAIN PRESENT.  WILL                
KEEP A CHANCE OF FLURRIES DURING THE MORNING AROUND THE GTV BAY                 
REGION AND VICINITY BEFORE NNW WINDS SUBSIDE TO 10KTS OR LESS AS THE            
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS.  OUTSIDE OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS...ANOTHER              
NICE DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.  COULD BE ANOTHER GOOD             
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT IF THE HIGH CLOUDS DISSIPATE.  WILL LOWER             
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES SINCE BELIEVE THE HIGH CLOUDS WONT IMPACT THE               
COOLING CURVE THAT MUCH.                                                        
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...POSITIVE PNA PATTERN FINALLY BREAKS DOWN             
DURING THIS PERIODS AS A BARRAGE OF PACIFIC SHORTWAVES WITHIN FAST              
ZONAL FLOW BEAT DOWN THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE.  AS A RESULT...WARMER              
AIR OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WILL TRY TO WARM THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE              
GREAT LAKES CLOSER TO THE NORM.  FIRST OF THE PACIFIC WAVES IS DUE              
TO PASS OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY.  GFS BRINGS A MORE            
SOUTHERLY TRACK WITH THIS WAVE...WHICH WOULD PROVIDE NORTHERN                   
MICHIGAN WITH PRECIP...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE FORCING NORTH OF               
THE AREA.  WILL KEEP CONTINUITY FOR NOW.  REGARDLESS...FORCING AND              
MOISTURE ARE LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE AND IT DOESNT LOOK TO BE A BIG                
DEAL.  OUTSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK DRY.                  
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LHZ348-349.                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
532 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...A QUICK UPDATE TO REFLECT DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SNOW AND               
FLURRIES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MOISTURE FLUXES DUE TO NE FLOW                
OFF LAKE HURON COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL LOWER              
HAS HELPED AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES TO GENERATE OVER THE              
PAST HOUR OR SO. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO                   
OCCUR...HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO INCLUDE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND                
FLURRIES FARTHER WEST THROUGH THE MORNING. LITTLE TO NO                         
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.                                                     
NEW ZONES OUT SHORTLY.                                                          
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...03Z SURFACE/RUC ANALYSIS AND IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY                   
CONTINUE TO SHOW A AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...WITH A              
WESTERN NOAM RIDGE AND A DEEP TROUGH RANGING FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE             
GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST.  CIRRUS SHIELD JUST AHEAD OF THE                 
TROUGH AXIS WITHIN CONFLUENT MID-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO SCRAPE BY              
THE SE CWA...WHILE SW-NE ORIENTATED SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS SUPPLYING             
THE AREA WITH EXCEPTIONALLY DRY AIR (PWAT 0.06 IN) THAT HAS                     
PREVENTED ANY PRECIP RELATED FROM THE POTENT STORM OVER THE                     
MID-ATLANTIC REGION FROM REACHING THIS FAR NORTH.  HOWEVER...THIS               
SURFACE HIGH IS ALSO PROVIDING THE AREA WITH AN ARCTIC AIRMASS                  
(850MB TEMP -19C) AND INSTABILITY NEEDED TO GENERATE LAKE EFFECT                
SNOW (LES).  THIS SNOW HAS BEEN MOSTLY CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG THE              
WEST ARM OF GRAND TRAVERSE BAY AND THE LEELANAU PENINSULA AND                   
WHITEFISH POINT...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACTIVITY ALONG THE LAKE              
HURON SHORELINE.  WITH THE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE EAST               
COAST STORM WILL PASS WELL EAST OF THE AREA...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT                 
PRECIP IS THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.                              
TODAY...POTENT MID-ATLANTIC STORM WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS IT                 
MOVES TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY THIS EVENING.  AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT            
TIGHTENS A BIT...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTH TO NE                
THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN BACK TO THE NORTH BY EARLY THIS EVENING.                  
ALTHOUGH 850MB TEMPS MODERATE FROM THE UPPER NEG TEENS TO THE MID               
NEG TEENS...LOW-MID LEVEL WIND TRAJECTORIES ORIGINATE FROM A HUDSON             
BAY HIGH WHICH WILL MAINTAIN VERY DRY AIR (850-700MB RH 15-25 PCT)              
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN.  THIS DRY AIR WILL KEEP A CAP ON LES                  
POTENTIAL OFF LAKE HURON DESPITE THE REASONABLY LONG FETCHES.  AS A             
RESULT...LOW CHANCY POPS ARE STILL WARRANTED FOR THE MORNING FROM               
ALPENA TO TAWAS BEFORE DIURNAL MIXING AND BACKING WINDS HELP TO                 
DIMINISH LES ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON.  LITTLE TO NO                       
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.  OTHERWISE...ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF                
NORTHERN MICHIGAN...LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO BE                           
HAD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS DOWNSLOPING AREAS OF NW LOWER AND EASTERN               
UPPER.  UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG WITH MOISTURE FLUX OFF HURON WILL HELP               
DIURNAL CU FORM OVER THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT            
THINK MIXING WILL ERODE THIS CLOUD COVER TOWARDS MID AND LATE                   
AFTERNOON.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS NORTH TO MID 20S              
SOUTH.                                                                          
TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE                
WHICH WOULD PLACE NORTHERN MICHIGAN BETWEEN THE DEEP LOW TO OUR                 
EAST...AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO OUR WEST.  THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL            
SLIDE FROM THE UPPER GREAT PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN MN/WISCONSIN                  
BORDER AND WILL SPREAD UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA.                    
HOWEVER...VERY DRY LOW/MID LEVEL AIR (850-700MB RH 10-20 PCT) WILL              
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA WHILE ALL ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL RESIDE TO               
OUR SW.  THIS WILL KEEP ALL SYNOPTIC PRECIP AWAY FROM THE                       
REGION...WHICH LEAVES LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES AS THE PRIMARY SNOW                 
CHANCE.  850MB TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY AROUND -15C AND CYCLONIC LOW              
LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.  GIVEN THE OVERWHELMING DRY AIR IN             
PLACE...HARD TO IMAGINE ANYTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES ALONG THE LAKE              
MICHIGAN SHORELINE AND NEAR APN AS WIND BECOME LOCKED IN THE NNW                
DIRECTION.  ADDITIONALLY...GIVEN THE EXPECTED THINNESS OF THE                   
CIRRUS...DO NOT BELIEVE THE CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT             
ON LOW TEMPS OUTSIDE OF THE SW CWA.  THEREFORE...THE TYPICAL COLD               
SPOTS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NE LOWER STILL LOOK TO GO BELOW ZERO             
ONCE AGAIN.                                                                     
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VERY LITTLE TO CHANGE OVER THESE PERIODS.             
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FORCING WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE                   
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WHILE HIGH                
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ITS DOMINANCE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.             
850MB TEMPS DO MODERATE A COUPLE DEGREES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHILE              
VERY DRY AIR (850-700MB RH 10-20 PCT) WILL REMAIN PRESENT.  WILL                
KEEP A CHANCE OF FLURRIES DURING THE MORNING AROUND THE GTV BAY                 
REGION AND VICINITY BEFORE NNW WINDS SUBSIDE TO 10KTS OR LESS AS THE            
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS.  OUTSIDE OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS...ANOTHER              
NICE DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.  COULD BE ANOTHER GOOD             
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT IF THE HIGH CLOUDS DISSIPATE.  WILL LOWER             
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES SINCE BELIEVE THE HIGH CLOUDS WONT IMPACT THE               
COOLING CURVE THAT MUCH.                                                        
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...POSITIVE PNA PATTERN FINALLY BREAKS DOWN             
DURING THIS PERIODS AS A BARRAGE OF PACIFIC SHORTWAVES WITHIN FAST              
ZONAL FLOW BEAT DOWN THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE.  AS A RESULT...WARMER              
AIR OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WILL TRY TO WARM THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE              
GREAT LAKES CLOSER TO THE NORM.  FIRST OF THE PACIFIC WAVES IS DUE              
TO PASS OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY.  GFS BRINGS A MORE            
SOUTHERLY TRACK WITH THIS WAVE...WHICH WOULD PROVIDE NORTHERN                   
MICHIGAN WITH PRECIP...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE FORCING NORTH OF               
THE AREA.  WILL KEEP CONTINUITY FOR NOW.  REGARDLESS...FORCING AND              
MOISTURE ARE LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE AND IT DOESNT LOOK TO BE A BIG                
DEAL.  OUTSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK DRY.                  
MPC                                                                             
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1152 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2008/                          
AVIATION...LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE REMAINED BRISK ENOUGH TO WARD OFF               
LAND BREEZE FORMATION ACROSS TVC...AND LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW                   
SHOWERS HAVE FLIRTED WITH THE AIRPORT. STILL FEEL THAT THESE SNOW               
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT. PLN IS                       
CLEAR...AND SEE NO REAL CHANGE IN THOSE CONDITIONS INTO TOMORROW.               
AT APN...LAKE EFFECT STRATO CU SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS                
MUCH OF NE LOWER...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER AROUND TO NE AND                     
INCREASE THE FETCH LENGTH. WILL JUST BACK OFF A BIT ON THE TIMING               
IF THIS...AND THE ASSOCIATED VCSH THAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE               
AREA. WILL BE FIGHTING STRATO CU AND LIGHT LAKE EFFECT INTO                     
TOMORROW AS WELL. SMD                                                           
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LHZ348-349.                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
420 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A               
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FROM E OF HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE WRN GREAT                
LAKES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE IN NW            
FLOW WAS DESCENDING SOUTH THROUGH MANITOBA INTO NORTH DAKOTA EARLY              
THIS MORNING. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM JAMES BAY INTO WRN             
LAKE SUPERIOR AND WRN WI. WEAK NRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE                 
RIDGE AXIS COMBINED WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -21C CONTINUED TO                  
SUPPORT WEAK MULTIPLE WIND PARALLEL LES BANDS INTO ALGER-LUCE AND               
NRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES. VERY DRY AIR AND EXTENSIVE ICE COVER HAS              
LIMITED LES INTO NW UPPER MI WITH ONLY WEAK BANDS OVER THE KEWEENAW             
PENINSULA NORTH OF HOUGHTON PER IR SATELLITE LOOP.                              
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO NOSEDIVE              
THIS MORNING. -24F TEMPS WERE REPORTED AT BOTH THE WAKEFIELD AND                
STONINGTON RAWS SITES WITHIN THE PAST HR WITH -19F AT THE NWS MQT.              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE LES TRENDS AND MIN TEMPS.                                
WIDELY-SPACED AND WEAK LES BANDS OVER THE ERN AND NCNTRL COUNTIES OF            
THE FCST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEGATIVELY IMPACTED INTO SUNDAY BY            
ANTICYCLONIC N-NE FLOW AND VERY DRY AIR UPSTREAM. WILL KEEP CHC POPS            
IN FOR NCNTRL COUNTIES INTO SUNDAY BUT EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS TO BE               
LESS THAN INCH FOR ANY 12 HR PERIOD. DIURNAL HEATING AND VERY LIGHT             
WIND FIELD WILL ALSO FURTHER DISRUPT WEAK LES BANDS DURING THE DAYTIME.         
EVENTUALLY...TEMPS WARMING TO -13/-14C AT TOP OF THE INVERSION AND              
LIGHT WIND FIELD SHOULD ALLOW LES TO END BY SUN EVENING. CONTINUED              
RIDGING WILL KEEP THE FCST AREA DRY INTO MONDAY.                                
TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND AS DAYTIME HIGHS REACH INTO              
THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20F ON SATURDAY AND LOW TO MID 20S ON                 
SUNDAY. WAA IN WRLY FLOW AHEAD OF NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING                
HIGHS ON MONDAY INTO THE LOW 30S. DESPITE THE SLOWLY MODERATING                 
AIRMASS...IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES              
AND LOW PCPN WATER VALUES AROUND .1 INCH OR LESS WILL ALLOW INLAND              
READINGS TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BLO ZERO SAT NIGHT AND SUN              
NIGHT.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KCMX THROUGH SAT EVENING. KSAW WILL             
HAVE VFR FOR MOST OF THE TIME...EXCEPT AS THE WIND GOES NE LATE SAT             
MORNING THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH               
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH A FAVORABLE WIND FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW             
GETTING THAT FAR INLAND.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
FREEZING SPRAY WILL REMAIN THE MAIN CONCERN AS A COLD AIRMASS                   
REMAINS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AVERAGING 30.4 INCHES WILL DOMINATE              
THE GREAT LAKES AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND....WITH LIGHT WINDS LESS               
THAN 20KTS EXPECTED.  THIS HIGH SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH ON                    
MONDAY...MAKING WAY FOR A 29.8 INCH LOW OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA MONDAY            
NIGHT TO CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY.  INCREASED WINDS MONDAY...BUT             
STILL BELOW 30KTS.  HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.0 INCHES WILL BRIEFLY TAKE              
OVER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS A 29.5 INCH LOW DEVELOPS OVER             
MANITOBA.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING TO 8 AM               
  EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ267.                                                        
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...VOSS                                                                 
DISCUSSION...VOSS                                                               
AVIATION...GJM                                                                  
MARINE...KF                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
400 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...03Z SURFACE/RUC ANALYSIS AND IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY                  
CONTINUE TO SHOW A AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...WITH A              
WESTERN NOAM RIDGE AND A DEEP TROUGH RANGING FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE             
GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST.  CIRRUS SHIELD JUST AHEAD OF THE                 
TROUGH AXIS WITHIN CONFLUENT MID-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO SCRAPE BY              
THE SE CWA...WHILE SW-NE ORIENTATED SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS SUPPLYING             
THE AREA WITH EXCEPTIONALLY DRY AIR (PWAT 0.06 IN) THAT HAS                     
PREVENTED ANY PRECIP RELATED FROM THE POTENT STORM OVER THE                     
MID-ATLANTIC REGION FROM REACHING THIS FAR NORTH.  HOWEVER...THIS               
SURFACE HIGH IS ALSO PROVIDING THE AREA WITH AN ARCTIC AIRMASS                  
(850MB TEMP -19C) AND INSTABILITY NEEDED TO GENERATE LAKE EFFECT                
SNOW (LES).  THIS SNOW HAS BEEN MOSTLY CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG THE              
WEST ARM OF GRAND TRAVERSE BAY AND THE LEELANAU PENINSULA AND                   
WHITEFISH POINT...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACTIVITY ALONG THE LAKE              
HURON SHORELINE.  WITH THE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE EAST               
COAST STORM WILL PASS WELL EAST OF THE AREA...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT                 
PRECIP IS THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.                              
TODAY...POTENT MID-ATLANTIC STORM WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS IT                 
MOVES TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY THIS EVENING.  AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT            
TIGHTENS A BIT...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTH TO NE                
THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN BACK TO THE NORTH BY EARLY THIS EVENING.                  
ALTHOUGH 850MB TEMPS MODERATE FROM THE UPPER NEG TEENS TO THE MID               
NEG TEENS...LOW-MID LEVEL WIND TRAJECTORIES ORIGINATE FROM A HUDSON             
BAY HIGH WHICH WILL MAINTAIN VERY DRY AIR (850-700MB RH 15-25 PCT)              
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN.  THIS DRY AIR WILL KEEP A CAP ON LES                  
POTENTIAL OFF LAKE HURON DESPITE THE REASONABLY LONG FETCHES.  AS A             
RESULT...LOW CHANCY POPS ARE STILL WARRANTED FOR THE MORNING FROM               
ALPENA TO TAWAS BEFORE DIURNAL MIXING AND BACKING WINDS HELP TO                 
DIMINISH LES ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON.  LITTLE TO NO                       
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.  OTHERWISE...ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF                
NORTHERN MICHIGAN...LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO BE                           
HAD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS DOWNSLOPING AREAS OF NW LOWER AND EASTERN               
UPPER.  UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG WITH MOISTURE FLUX OFF HURON WILL HELP               
DIURNAL CU FORM OVER THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT            
THINK MIXING WILL ERODE THIS CLOUD COVER TOWARDS MID AND LATE                   
AFTERNOON.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS NORTH TO MID 20S              
SOUTH.                                                                          
TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE                
WHICH WOULD PLACE NORTHERN MICHIGAN BETWEEN THE DEEP LOW TO OUR                 
EAST...AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO OUR WEST.  THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL            
SLIDE FROM THE UPPER GREAT PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN MN/WISCONSIN                  
BORDER AND WILL SPREAD UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA.                    
HOWEVER...VERY DRY LOW/MID LEVEL AIR (850-700MB RH 10-20 PCT) WILL              
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA WHILE ALL ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL RESIDE TO               
OUR SW.  THIS WILL KEEP ALL SYNOPTIC PRECIP AWAY FROM THE                       
REGION...WHICH LEAVES LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES AS THE PRIMARY SNOW                 
CHANCE.  850MB TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY AROUND -15C AND CYCLONIC LOW              
LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.  GIVEN THE OVERWHELMING DRY AIR IN             
PLACE...HARD TO IMAGINE ANYTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES ALONG THE LAKE              
MICHIGAN SHORELINE AND NEAR APN AS WIND BECOME LOCKED IN THE NNW                
DIRECTION.  ADDITIONALLY...GIVEN THE EXPECTED THINNESS OF THE                   
CIRRUS...DO NOT BELIEVE THE CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT             
ON LOW TEMPS OUTSIDE OF THE SW CWA.  THEREFORE...THE TYPICAL COLD               
SPOTS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NE LOWER STILL LOOK TO GO BELOW ZERO             
ONCE AGAIN.                                                                     
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VERY LITTLE TO CHANGE OVER THESE PERIODS.             
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FORCING WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE                   
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WHILE HIGH                
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ITS DOMINANCE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.             
850MB TEMPS DO MODERATE A COUPLE DEGREES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHILE              
VERY DRY AIR (850-700MB RH 10-20 PCT) WILL REMAIN PRESENT.  WILL                
KEEP A CHANCE OF FLURRIES DURING THE MORNING AROUND THE GTV BAY                 
REGION AND VICINITY BEFORE NNW WINDS SUBSIDE TO 10KTS OR LESS AS THE            
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS.  OUTSIDE OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS...ANOTHER              
NICE DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.  COULD BE ANOTHER GOOD             
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT IF THE HIGH CLOUDS DISSIPATE.  WILL LOWER             
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES SINCE BELIEVE THE HIGH CLOUDS WONT IMPACT THE               
COOLING CURVE THAT MUCH.                                                        
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...POSITIVE PNA PATTERN FINALLY BREAKS DOWN             
DURING THIS PERIODS AS A BARRAGE OF PACIFIC SHORTWAVES WITHIN FAST              
ZONAL FLOW BEAT DOWN THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE.  AS A RESULT...WARMER              
AIR OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WILL TRY TO WARM THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE              
GREAT LAKES CLOSER TO THE NORM.  FIRST OF THE PACIFIC WAVES IS DUE              
TO PASS OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY.  GFS BRINGS A MORE            
SOUTHERLY TRACK WITH THIS WAVE...WHICH WOULD PROVIDE NORTHERN                   
MICHIGAN WITH PRECIP...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE FORCING NORTH OF               
THE AREA.  WILL KEEP CONTINUITY FOR NOW.  REGARDLESS...FORCING AND              
MOISTURE ARE LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE AND IT DOESNT LOOK TO BE A BIG                
DEAL.  OUTSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK DRY.                  
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1152 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2008/                         
AVIATION...LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE REMAINED BRISK ENOUGH TO WARD OFF               
LAND BREEZE FORMATION ACROSS TVC...AND LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW                   
SHOWERS HAVE FLIRTED WITH THE AIRPORT. STILL FEEL THAT THESE SNOW               
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT. PLN IS                       
CLEAR...AND SEE NO REAL CHANGE IN THOSE CONDITIONS INTO TOMORROW.               
AT APN...LAKE EFFECT STRATO CU SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS                
MUCH OF NE LOWER...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER AROUND TO NE AND                     
INCREASE THE FETCH LENGTH. WILL JUST BACK OFF A BIT ON THE TIMING               
IF THIS...AND THE ASSOCIATED VCSH THAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE               
AREA. WILL BE FIGHTING STRATO CU AND LIGHT LAKE EFFECT INTO                     
TOMORROW AS WELL. SMD                                                           
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LHZ348-349.                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
337 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE OVER SOUTH                    
CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS EVENING...WITH WEAKENING LIFT OVER THE                   
REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL LOW SPINS SSE. SREF                 
UVV AND POPS INDICATE THIS GENERAL TREND OVERNIGHT INTO MIDDAY                  
SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER MOST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH                 
THE CYCLONIC FLOW. WONDER IF MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS A LITTLE COOL IN A              
FEW AREAS TONIGHT. WITH NOT MUCH CLEARING...GFS LAMP NUMBERS MAY                
LOOK A LITTLE BETTER.                                                           
LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE WARMING MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE                
PACIFIC SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. NAEFS CHARTS SHOWING           
HIGHEST PROBS FOR RAIN INITIALLY WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH MAKES                   
SENSE...WITH THE WARM 850 MB TEMPS THAT ARE FORECAST. WILL                      
INDICATE CHANGE TO SNOW WITH THE COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLE VORT                   
PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.               
TEMPS COOLING TO NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE SYSTEM                
FOR A DAY OR TWO. MODELS STILL SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIG                  
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
AFOREMENTIONED STRONG CIRCULATION ALOFT NOW INTO NW MN. SFC LOW                 
REMAINS A LITTLE BIT STRONGER THAN MODELS HAD BEEN INDICATING.                  
INITIAL AREA OF SNOW HAS BEEN DROPPING SSE THROUGH WESTERN MN. 12Z              
NAM AND GFS CONTINUE THE TREND OF SLOWING DOWN THE EASTWARD                     
PROGRESSION OF THE SNOW...AND 15Z RUC IS EVEN LATER. THUS HAVE                  
CONTINUED THE FORECAST OF SNOW THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AT AXN AND                
RWF... BUT DELAYED IT ELSEWHERE. IN FACT...IT SEEMS AS IF STC AND               
MSP MAY NOT SEE MUCH SNOW OUT OF THIS INITIAL WAVE. MEANWHILE NAM               
AND GFS HINT AT DEVELOPMENT OF DEFORMATION ZONE THIS EVENING AND                
THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM NW/NC MN ACROSS THE MSP REGION... TO THE                 
ESE OF MSP...PROBABLY AFFECTING STC AND MSP. BAND MAY THEN PIVOT                
AROUND THE MSP METRO OR SE MN INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW                   
POSSIBLE AT RNH AND EAU. HAVE THEREFORE PLACED LOWEST VSBY FOR MSP              
STARTING AROUND 06Z FOR SEVERAL HOURS. SAID DEFORMATION MAY BE                  
RATHER NARROW SO WILL INDICATE SNOW FOR ONLY A FEW HOURS SINCE IT               
WILL LIKELY SHIFT A LITTLE.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
99/JPR/TDK                                                                      
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1207 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERED THE EASTERN CWA EARLY THIS                     
MORNING WITH DOUBLE DIGIT BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES FROM LAKEVILLE                
TO LADYSMITH AND EAU CLAIRE. A STRONG CIRCULATION ALOFT IS MOVING               
INTO ND AND NW MN ATTM. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER ND IS ABOUT 2               
MILLIBARS DEEPER OVER THE NAM FORECAST. THE NAM IS ALSO NOT DEEP                
ENOUGH NOR FAR ENOUGH WEST WITH THE LOW IN SOUTHWEST VA EARLY THIS              
MORNING. THE CIRCULATION TO OUR NW WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST                   
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A CLOSED LOW ALOFT JUST ABOUT OVER THE TWIN              
CITIES SUNDAY MORNING. PARAMETERS LOOK VERY GOOD FOR LIGHT SNOW                 
AND WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS IN PLAY DESPITE MINIMAL POPS FROM MOS.                
NAM BEST LAYER MOISTURE AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE SPREADS ACROSS                 
THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA BETWEEN 18Z AND 06Z. THIS ALSO                
LINES UP WELL WITH THE SATURATION AND ADIABATIC OMEGA SEEN ON THE               
280K THETA SURFACE. MIXING RATIOS DURING THIS TIME FRAME AVERAGE                
AROUND 1.5 G/KG. NET VERTICAL DISPLACEMENT TODAY A RESPECTABLE 20               
MILLIBARS. OVERALL...EXPECT FROM A HALF INCH TO 1.5 INCHES OF SNOW              
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE 1.5 INCHES BEING ACROSS CENTRAL MN IN THE              
LITTLE FALLS...ST CLOUD AND MORA AREAS. LINGERING FLURRIES ON                   
SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. A WESTERLY FLOW                 
ALOFT THEN DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND. A               
SMALL THREAT FOR SOME RAIN STILL LOOKS GOOD BEGINNING WEDNESDAY                 
FROM CENTRAL MN ON NORTHWARD AND ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI. BETTER                 
CHANCES FOR RAIN OR RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND                   
EARLY THURSDAY AS A SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS               
THE REGION.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
AFOREMENTIONED STRONG CIRCULATION ALOFT NOW INTO NW MN. SFC LOW                 
REMAINS A LITTLE BIT STRONGER THAN MODELS HAD BEEN INDICATING.                  
INITIAL AREA OF SNOW HAS BEEN DROPPING SSE THROUGH WESTERN MN. 12Z              
NAM AND GFS CONTINUE THE TREND OF SLOWING DOWN THE EASTWARD                     
PROGRESSION OF THE SNOW...AND 15Z RUC IS EVEN LATER. THUS HAVE                  
CONTINUED THE FORECAST OF SNOW THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AT AXN AND                
RWF... BUT DELAYED IT ELSEWHERE. IN FACT...IT SEEMS AS IF STC AND               
MSP MAY NOT SEE MUCH SNOW OUT OF THIS INITIAL WAVE. MEANWHILE NAM               
AND GFS HINT AT DEVELOPMENT OF DEFORMATION ZONE THIS EVENING AND                
THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM NW/NC MN ACROSS THE MSP REGION... TO THE                 
ESE OF MSP...PROBABLY AFFECTING STC AND MSP. BAND MAY THEN PIVOT                
AROUND THE MSP METRO OR SE MN INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW                   
POSSIBLE AT RNH AND EAU. HAVE THEREFORE PLACED LOWEST VSBY FOR MSP              
STARTING AROUND 06Z FOR SEVERAL HOURS. SAID DEFORMATION MAY BE                  
RATHER NARROW SO WILL INDICATE SNOW FOR ONLY A FEW HOURS SINCE IT               
WILL LIKELY SHIFT A LITTLE.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RAH/TDK                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
239 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.                                          
PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPS...THEN POTENTIAL               
FOR FLURRIES AND CLDS.                                                          
A SURFACE TROF OF LOW PRES EAST OF WAYNE AND NEAR COLUMBUS                      
HIGHLIGHTED THE WIND SHIFT FM SW TO NORTHWEST AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL              
CLD COVER TO THE N. IN THE WARM SECTOR...TEMPERATURES WERE WARMING              
INTO THE 40S AND 50S AROUND ALBION TO ODX TO EAR AND MUCH OF SOUTH              
CNTRL NEBRASKA. THE SNOW WAS CLOSER TO THE NRN SFC LOW AROUND                   
FARGO AND WATERTOWN IN ERN SD...THEN SE INTO MN AND IA. VISIBLE                 
STLT IMAGERY HAD AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW AND MID CLDS WITH THIS                
WEATHER SYSTEM.                                                                 
AT 20Z...THE RUC HAD A LARGE CLOSED H5 LOW FM LAKE WINNIPEG INTO                
NRN MN...AND THIS WAS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR STLT IMAGERY AS WELL. A              
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WERE DROPPING S AROUND THE LOW. THE AREA OF                
LOW PRES OVR THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL MOVE INTO IA BY                           
MORNING...DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT THRU AND COLD AIR INTO THE                    
REGION. THE STRATOCU SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND INTO THE FCST AREA               
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE MORE ORGANIZED LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE CLOSER              
TO THE SFC LOW TO THE EAST OF THE FCST AREA. AS COLDER AIR AND                  
SUFFICIENT RH IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER MOVE IN AND SOME WEAK UVV LATER            
TONIGHT...IT SHOULD BE EASIER TO GET FLURRIES AND POSSIBLY LIGHT                
SNOW. BY SUNDAY EVENING...WE ARE STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF                   
CYCLONIC FLOW AND THE COLD TEMPS. HAVE HIGHS SUNDAY 10 TO 20                    
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AROUND FREEZING FOR PARTS OF WESTERN IOWA                
TO THE LOWER 40S AROUND ALBION AND WEST OF BIE. LINGERED SOME                   
FLURRIES INTO THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH COLDER TEMPS WILL BE WELL TO               
OUR EAST.                                                                       
SFC HIGH PRES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP BACK INTO              
THE TEENS MONDAY MORNING...WITH COLDER TEMPS FOR THOSE WITH DEEPER              
SNOWPACK. THE SURFACE HIGH IS A LITTLE SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE                  
REGION...SO HAVE COOLER HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S EAST...WITH LOWER                
50S WEST. STILL ON TRACK TO BE MUCH WARMER TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN                
THE 50S AND 60S.                                                                
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.                                    
CAN NOT SEEM TO SHAKE THE HOLD OF OVERALL LA NINA PATTERN OF THIS               
WINTER...AND THE FORECAST FOR LATER IN THE WEEK BEARS THIS OUT.                 
AFTER SHORT WAVE RIDGING BRINGS WARM WEATHER TO THE REGION ON                   
TUESDAY AND THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL SWEEP               
THROUGH THE REGION...REINFORCING MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH POSITION OVER            
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS LEAVES OUR PART OF THE COUNTRY            
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH...WITH MUCH OF THE CWA ON THE COLD SIDE            
OF LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. SO BOTTOM LINE IS THAT TEMPERATURES               
WERE TRIMMED EACH DAY WITH THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY REMAINING BELOW            
50 DEGREES.                                                                     
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TOUGH TO DETERMINE AFTER MAIN COLD                
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE KEPT A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR A             
RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH THAT COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY                    
THURSDAY. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN KEEPING MOST OF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY             
DRY. THEN LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...PRECIPITATION                
FORECAST CONFIDENCE WANES. HOWEVER...BOTH 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF                 
BRING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE PLAINS SOUTH OF NEBRASKA.                
EAST OR NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING RELATIVELY COOL SURFACE             
AIR INTO THE REGION AS PACIFIC MOISTURE OVERRIDES IT FROM THE WEST              
AND NORTHWEST. BOTH MODELS GENERATE PRECIPITATION...BUT ECMWF IS                
FASTER IN MOVING IT IN AND OUT...AND IS QUITE A BIT COLDER. HAVE                
FOLLOWED GFS FOR THE MOST PART AS ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WERE                     
RELATIVELY CONSISTENT ON TIMING OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING LATE                 
FRIDAY...AND ENDING IT SATURDAY. ALSO...TEMPERATURE PROFILES WERE A             
BIT WARMER AND SEEMED MORE REASONABLE GIVEN ASSUMED UPPER AIR FLOW.             
HAVE INTRODUCED A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW TO THE FRIDAY NIGHT AND               
SATURDAY PERIODS...WITH ALL SNOW IN THE NORTH. IF ECMWF                         
VERIFIES...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL SNOW AND WILL                
LIKELY BE EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY.                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR TAF SITES KOMA/KLNK/KOFK.                                                   
SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF MVFR CIGS OVER THE DAKOTAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH            
FROPA WILL AFFECT ALL TAF SITES THRU 09/18Z. MODELS SUGGEST POSSIBLE            
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY AT OFK BTW 12Z-18Z TIMEFRAME.                
HAVE OPTED THOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE            
OF IT OCCURRING. OTHERWISE...LIGHT NW WINDS EXPECTED ALL SITES.                 
MOISTURE NOT DEEP AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PCPN DVLPG.                         
&&                                                                              
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ZAPOTOCNY/DERGAN/DEE                                                            
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT                                          
113 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE            
REGION WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO                
WEST WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG THROUGH MIDDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE              
CENTRAL ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. LINGERING                 
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT.                           
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...THEN A WARMING              
TREND WILL MOVE TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL AT THE END OF THE WEEK.               
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
AS OF 929 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE NORTH COUNTRY REMAINS IN DEEP-LAYER               
CYCLONIC FLOW ON UPSTREAM SIDE OF DEPARTING LOW OVER NRN ME AT                  
1315Z. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES BAND OF 45-55KT 850MB WINDS                
ACROSS OUR SRN ZONES...AND THIS SHOULD HELP CONTRIBUTE TO SOME WLY              
SFC WIND GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH IN THE ADVISORY AREA THROUGH LATE THIS              
MORNING. OVERALL GRADIENT WEAKENS THIS AFTERNOON...SO CURRENT PLAN              
IS TO DROP THE WIND ADVISORY ON TIME AT 15Z. BY 21Z...850MB FLOW                
BECOMES NWLY AND DECREASES TO 30-35 KTS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A FEW               
SUNNY BREAKS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTN. DOWNSLOPE FLOW                  
COMPONENT SHOULD ALSO FAVOR DIMINISHING CLOUDS EAST OF THE                      
ADIRONDACKS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS                  
TOWARD/WITHIN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY.                                     
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...                              
AS OF 0412 AM EDT SUNDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE POKING                        
NORTHEAST OUT OF OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING FAIR                 
WEATHER FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER LOW HEIGHTS IN                  
THE EASTERN US WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. LOW RH AIR OVER THE                
REGION...SO SOME SUN EXPECTED. HOWEVER WITH TROFINESS OVER                      
EASTERN US AND VICINITY OF JET...DON`T THINK IT WILL BE QUITE AS                
CLOUD FREE AS MOS WOULD LIKE. WENT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN                  
GUIDANCE MONDAY AND TUESDAY COUNTING ON SOME MORE SUNSHINE TO                   
WARM US UP.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                  
AS OF 0412 AM EDT SUNDAY...CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO DIVE DOWN IN                  
NORTHWEST FLOW LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPS COLD ENOUGH FOR               
SNOW...BUT WITH LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH ONLY CHC POPS.                       
SHORTWAVE RIDGING FOLLOWS...THEN A WARM FRONT THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY              
COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. CHC POPS...WITH SOME RAIN MIXED IN ON                     
THURSDAY WITH WARMER TEMPS.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                      
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR COND EXPECTED AT ALL FORECAST              
SITES THRU 00Z MON. KSLK MAY SEE SOME IFR -SW FROM 18Z-21Z THAT                 
MAY REDUCE VSBY TO LESS THAN 3SM AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...CEILINGS                 
THRU 00Z MON WILL VARY FROM VFR TO MVFR. AFT 00Z MON...MAINLY VFR               
COND FOR ALL SITES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...AND               
EVENTUALLY NEAR SCT BY 18Z MONDAY. SOME MVFR CEILINGS AT KSLK FROM              
00Z-04Z MON. WINDS CURRENTLY WNW 10-20KTS WITH SOME HIR                         
GUSTS...WILL BECM LIGHTER THRU FORECAST PERIOD TO 10KTS OR LESS BY              
00Z MON. HIR TRRN OBSCD AT TIMES.                                               
18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE                  
REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS                  
INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE               
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND                      
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG                 
WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL                   
BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING VFR                  
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.                          
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
AS OF 0412 AM EDT SUNDAY...WILL EXTEND FLOOD WATCH TO UNTIL THIS                
AFTERNOON. SMALLER TRIBS CRESTING ONLY NOW...AND OTTER CREEK AT                 
CENTER RUTLAND AND OTHER MAINSTEM RIVERS CONTINUE TO RISE.                      
SOUTHERN VERMONT RECEIVED 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ALL LIQUID OVER THE                   
PAST 24 HOURS...AND WATERWAYS RUNNING HIGH. IN ADDITION TO OPEN                 
WATER FLOOD POTENTIAL...THESE RISES HAVE RIVER ICE BREAKING UP AND              
MOVING ON CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT RIVERS. KNOWN ICE JAM ON THE MAD              
RIVER AT MORETOWN VT...AND VT HIGHWAY DEPT REPORTS A JAM MOVING                 
DOWN THE FIRST BRANCH OF THE WHITE RIVER ALONG ROUTE 110 IN THE                 
CHELSEA/TUNBRIDGE/SOUTH ROYALTON AREA.                                          
COLD AIR SPREADING OVER REGION IS A HELP BY FREEZING UP THE                     
RUNOFF...AND WILL ALLOW RIVERS TO BEGIN TO RECEDE. IN                           
EXTENDED...FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOR END OF WEEK FOR SOME WELL                    
REGULATED SNOWMELT RUNOFF...40S IN THE DAY AND 20S AT NIGHT WILL                
HELP MELT SOME SNOW AND GET THE WATER INTO THE RIVERS IN AN                     
ORDERLY FASHION.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VT...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR VTZ009>012-018-              
     019.                                                                       
NY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...HANSON                                                               
NEAR TERM...BANACOS                                                             
SHORT TERM...HANSON                                                             
LONG TERM...HANSON                                                              
AVIATION...WGH/JN                                                               
HYDROLOGY...BANACOS                                                             
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
1252 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA LATE TODAY WILL                 
BRING A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. AS THE LOW MOVES              
INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT, RAIN AND MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL                     
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS AS GUSTY WINDS BRING IN COLDER AIR.                 
THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK ON SUNDAY.                
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
UPDATED...LTL CHG TO CRNT FCST AND WILL LEAVE ALL FLAGS AS IS.                  
AREAS ALONG AND W OF I-81 HAVE SFC TEMPS GNRLY IN THE 30-32 RNG,                
AND XPCT LTL CHG THIS AFTN. ACRS THESE AREAS, A MIX OF RAIN/FZRA                
AND SLEET CAN BE XPCTD. AREAS TO THE SE WILL SEE RAIN AS THE                    
PRIMARY PCPN TYPE. POTNL FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTN ACRS THE POCONOS              
AND SRN CATSKILLS MAY POSE SOME FLASHY HYDRO PRBLMS THIS AFTN/EVNG              
AND WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS. WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS EVNG                 
BEHIND THE LOW. ISALLOBARIC FIELD LOOKS PRETTY GOOD BUT INITIAL                 
BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST LOW END ADVISORY. IN AGREEMENT WITH                     
BUF/ALY TO HOLD OFF ON ANY WIND HEADLINES ATTM...INITIAL THOUGHT                
IS THAT 20-30G4O WOULD WORK FOR MOST OF THE AREA. GIVEN                         
COMPLEXITY OF FCST ATTM WILL LEAVE HEADLINES AS IS BUT WILL                     
CONSIDER WIND HEADLINES THIS AFTN. PREV BLO...                                  
WK SFC LOW THAT DEVELOPED OVR THE DELMARVA EARLY THIS MRNG HAS MVD              
TO A POSN OFF OF CAPE COD. THIS HAS SERVED TO PULL IN A LITTLE BIT              
CLDR AIR FOR THE TIME BEING BUT HAS ALSO TAKEN PCPN WITH IT AS IT               
EXITS. RESPITE FROM THE PCPN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS MORE IS MVG                 
QUICKLY NORTH THRU PA WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES ALREADY NOTED OVR                  
CPA.                                                                            
UPPER LOW HAS CLOSED OFF OVR THE TN VALLEY WITH ASSOC SFC LOW                   
MAKING RAPID PROGRESS TO THE NORTH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVR                      
VA/TN/NC BORDER. SFC TROF AXIS EXTENDS NORTH OF THE CTR AND TWD FA              
WITH GREATEST PRESSURE FALLS OVR WV AT PRESENT. EXPECT THIS LOW                 
WILL CONTINUE MVG NORTH AND EAST TODAY ALONG BOUNDARY. BOTH                     
NAM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON EVENTUAL POSN OF LOW THIS AFTN.                
ONLY DIFFERENCE RMNS IN THE NAM DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE              
COAST THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...WITHIN 6 HRS THE PRIMARILY SFC LOW TAKES             
OVR. GFS/SUPER ENSEMBLES/RUC DO NOT SEEM TO BE BUYING INTO THIS                 
SOLN AND HAVE THUS SIDED TWD GFS SOLN IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW               
CTR FOR TODAY.                                                                  
H5 LOW WILL EJECT NORTH TODAY AS NEXT S/WV DROPS INTO NRN PLAINS                
AND KICKS IT OUT. LOW IS PROGGED TO TAKE ON NEGATIVE TILT AS IT                 
HEADS UP INTO THE OH VALLEY. ALL SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE                
INDICATES THE LOW CTR TRACKING WEST OF THE FA TODAY. H8/H7 CENTERS              
ALSO EXPECTED TO TRACK THRU WRN NY/FINGER LAKES TODAY. AS H8 LOW                
TRACKS NORTH...WINDS WILL BACK ARND TO THE SOUTHEAST DRAWING WARMER             
AIR INTO CNY AFTR ABOUT 15Z.                                                    
CURRENTLY TEMPS ARE SITTING RIGHT ARND FZG. INITIAL BATCH OF PCPN               
WILL MV IN BTWN 12Z-15Z. BUFKIT PROFILES FROM THE NAM/GFS/RUC                   
INDICATE A MIX OF SLEET OR FZRA EARLY THIS MRNG...POSSIBLY MIXED                
WITH SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AS PROFILE RMNS ISOTHERMAL PER                   
ACARS DATA. AS WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN THE WARM LAYER AT 800MB                  
INCRS TO ARND +5C. FAR SRN AND ERN ZONES WILL RMN ABV FRZG AND                  
EXPECT ALL RAIN TODAY. SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED                 
WITH SHOWALTERS DROPPING BLO ZERO AND LAPSE RATES INCRSG TO 6.5-7               
FROM 15Z-21Z.                                                                   
FURTHER NORTH...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL GIVE WAY TO ALL RAIN               
AFTER ABOUT 15Z ACROSS PARTS OF CNY. HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY RMN                  
ARND FRZG FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY. WITH TEMPS ARND 32F...PCPN                
MAY HAVE A HARD TIME ACCUMULATING ON SFCS AND EXPECT ICING OF ONLY              
ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO THRU THE DAY ACROSS THE HILLTOPS.                    
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND FAR NORTH...FREEZING RAIN MAY HOLD ON               
A LITTLE LONGER AS TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE MIDDLE 30S. UP TO               
ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALTHO VALLEY LOCATIONS                  
SHUD WARM UP ENUF TO SEE PLAIN RAIN.                                            
THUS...HAVE LEFT WINTER WX ADVISORIES IN PLACE WHERE THEY                       
PREVIOUSLY WERE. DELAWARE COUNTY MAY BE A QUESTION MARK AS TO                   
WHETHER SOME SPOTS MAY SEE SOME ICING BUT HAVE OPTED NOT TO                     
INCLUDE THEM AS OF YET AS MOST OF THE COUNTY SHUD WARM UP FAIRLY                
QUICKLY ALOFT. WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR STEUBEN...SCHUYLER...                  
MADISON AND SRN ONEIDA HAVE BEEN DROPPED TO WINTER WX ADVISORIES.               
VRY LITTLE SNOW IS EXPECTED TODAY AND ICING AMNTS WILL NOT BE ENUF              
TO PUSH THESE AREAS TO WARNING CRITERIA.                                        
REGARDING THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...H8 JET INCREASES TO 40-50KTS                  
THIS AFTN WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TRAJECTORY AS H8 LOW MVS NORTH.                
THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH SRN STREAM SPEED MAX AND POSSIBLE                      
ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR FLOODING TODAY.                
CUD SEE SOME URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING BUT FEEL THE BETTER                
CHC FOR HVY RAIN HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST BASED ON TRACK                
OF SFC LOW AND H8 SPEED MAX. MODELS HV COME IN LIGHTER ON QPF WITH              
0.50-1.00 INCHES EXPECTED FROM I-81 CORRIDOR EAST. WITH RIVERS                  
STILL HIGH AND PROGGED TO RISE TO NR/ABV FLOOD STAGE ON THE                     
SUSQUEHANNA AND DELAWARE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO KEEP FLOOD                 
WATCH GOING THRU SUNDAY MORNING. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CANCEL                
IT EARLY GIVEN PROGRESS OF HVY RAIN TO THE EAST.                                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...                                    
FCST FOR TONIGHT COMPLICATED WITH REGARD TO SNOWFALL AMNTS/WARNING              
CRITERIA PCPN. SFC LOW PASSES THRU THIS EVENING AND DRAWS COLD AIR IN           
VRY QUICKLY. TEMPS ALOFT PLUMMET BHND THE STORM WITH H8 TEMPS DOWN              
TO NR -15C AFTER 06Z. PCPN WILL CHG TO ALL SNOW OVR MOST OF CNY                 
AFTER 00Z. QPF FROM 00Z NAM/GFS BOTH GIVE ABOUT ONE HALF INCH                   
ACROSS THE FINGER LKS/MOHAWK VALLEY OVERNIGHT. TREMENDOUS LIFT                  
BEING ADVERTISED ALONG WITH RAPIDLY LOWERING SNOW GROWTH LAYER.                 
INITIAL PLAN WAS TO DROP WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.                           
HOWEVER...WRAP- ROUND OCCASIONALLY HAS A TENDENCY TO INTENSIFY                  
DUE TO THE LAKE INFLUENCE. WITH FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH                           
AREA...INTENSE LIFT AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE OVR NRN                    
SECTIONS...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP WARNING GOING FROM YATES THRU                     
ONONDAGA AND NRN ONEIDA. THE BEST CHC FOR 12-HR WARNING CRITERIA                
ACCUMS WILL BE FROM PENN YAN TO SYRACUSE TO BOONVILLE WITH 5-8                  
INCHES POSSIBLE. LIMITING FACTOR IN ALL THIS WILL BE THE SPEED AT               
WHICH THE STORM DEPARTS THE AREA. PCPN WILL ONLY HV ABOUT A 4-6 HR              
WINDOW TO WORK WITH IN ORDER TO GET WARNING CRITERIA.                           
THE ADVISORY AREA WILL ONLY SEE ABOUT 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMS                 
OVRNGT BUT SLEET AND FZRA EXPECTED SAT AFTN WARRANTS KEEPING                    
HEADLINE RUNNING.                                                               
NEXT CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE WINDS BHND THE STORM. TIGHT                    
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST ARND LOW AS IT CONTINUES TO DEEPEN                 
INTO NRN VT. MODELS HINTING AT H8 WINDS OF 50KTS BLOWING THRU ON                
BACKSIDE OF SFC LOW. WUD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE GUSTS UP TO 45 KTS             
OVERNIGHT OVR THE HILLTOPS. WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE HOISTED                
LATER ON. FOR THE TIME BEING...PREFER TO CVR POTENTIAL IN                       
SUBSEQUENT WINTER WX HEADLINES AND THE HWO. AREAS OF SNOW AND                   
BLOWING SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT - ONE MORE FACTOR IN FAVOR OF              
KEEPING SOME PORTIONS OF THE WINTER STORM WARNING GOING.                        
THE SNOW SHUD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW RAPIDLY MVS              
NORTH AND EAST. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON                    
SUNDAY BUT CONDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ADVISORY ACCUMS              
WITH THE SNOWS. LAKE EFFECT WILL SLOWLY COME TO AN END ON MONDAY                
AS HIPRES TRIES TO BUILD IN.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                          
WITH FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM MIXED EVENT ABOUT TO GET UNDERWAY...               
WE HAVE FOLLOWED THE HPC GUIDANCE WITH THIS FCST UPDATE. IN                     
GENERAL...MED RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL                
INFLUENCE WX ACROSS CNY/NEPA WITH TRANSIENT WEAK SYSTEMS PASSING                
THROUGH THE AREA. NOTHING AT THIS TIME LOOKS SIGNIFICANT. COLD                  
ENOUGH FOR CHC SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING SUN NITE AND             
MONDAY. LACK OF SYNOPTIC MOISTURE SHOULD MAKE ANY LES A LIGHT EVENT.            
WEAK TROF/FRONT PASSAGES TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO                  
FRIDAY WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS DURING             
THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDS INTO                 
THURS. TEMPS START OFF BELOW NORMAL...THEN DECENT WAA AHEAD OF FRONT            
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY SHOULD BRING TEMPS ABOVE.                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                    
WDSPRD IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND                    
FREEZING RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE NEARS THE               
AREA...A DRY SLOT MOVES NORTH FROM CENTRAL VIRGINIA AFTER 21Z.                  
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR BRIEF IMPROVEMENT OF CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR AND                  
PSBLY VFR AT AVP...ELM AND BGM. SHALLOW COLD LAYER MAY HOLD IN THE              
IFR FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...ESPLY AS WINDS COME AROUND TO THE                  
NORTH OFF THE LAKE AT ITH. ALSO EXPECT A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION              
AFTER 21Z. COLD AIR CHANGES PRECIP TO SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. CIGS                
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR...BUT VSBYS OCNLY MVFR-IFR IN ANY SNOW SHOWERS.          
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH IMPROVEMENT                
TO VFR. MAIN FLIGHT PROBLEM BEGINNING BY MID EVENING AND                        
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY WILL BE STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS               
LIKELY SUSTAINED 20-30 KTS...GUSTING OCNLY 35-40 KTS.                           
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
SUN NITE...MVFR CHC LAKE SNOW SYR-RME. ELSEWHERE VFR.                           
MON...VFR. NO SIG WX.                                                           
TUES...VFR. NO SIG WX.                                                          
WED...MVFR-VFR. CHC RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.                                       
THU...VFR. NO SIG WX.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-             
     048-072.                                                                   
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ038-039.              
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR NYZ009-037-045-046-                 
     055>057-062.                                                               
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ022>025-              
     036-037-044>046-055-056.                                                   
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018.             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...JAB                                                                  
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
638 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL SPREAD                  
A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS                     
MORNING...WITH RAIN EXPECTED OVER NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. AS WARM               
AIR GETS WRAPPED UP AROUND THE STORM THE MIXED PRECIPITATION IS                 
EXPECTED TO SWITCH OVER TO ALL RAIN BY NOON. SOME HIGHER HILLTOP                
LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE FREEZING RAIN OFF AND ON THROUGH THE                   
AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND FREEZING. THE RAIN WILL                  
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING BEGINNING IN THE FINGER                        
LAKES...AND WORKING SOUTH OVERNIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8               
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES                       
TONIGHT...WITH SEVERAL INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER                 
AND SUSQUEHANNA BASIN. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT                  
WITH WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF               
BY MORNING...WITH ONLY A FEW LINGER LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS                    
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
WK SFC LOW THAT DEVELOPED OVR THE DELMARVA EARLY THIS MRNG HAS MVD              
TO A POSN OFF OF CAPE COD. THIS HAS SERVED TO PULL IN A LITTLE BIT              
CLDR AIR FOR THE TIME BEING BUT HAS ALSO TAKEN PCPN WITH IT AS IT               
EXITS. RESPITE FROM THE PCPN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS MORE IS MVG                 
QUICKLY NORTH THRU PA WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES ALREADY NOTED OVR                  
CPA.                                                                            
UPPER LOW HAS CLOSED OFF OVR THE TN VALLEY WITH ASSOC SFC LOW                   
MAKING RAPID PROGRESS TO THE NORTH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVR                      
VA/TN/NC BORDER. SFC TROF AXIS EXTENDS NORTH OF THE CTR AND TWD FA              
WITH GREATEST PRESSURE FALLS OVR WV AT PRESENT. EXPECT THIS LOW                 
WILL CONTINUE MVG NORTH AND EAST TODAY ALONG BOUNDARY. BOTH                     
NAM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON EVENTUAL POSN OF LOW THIS AFTN.                
ONLY DIFFERENCE RMNS IN THE NAM DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE              
COAST THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...WITHIN 6 HRS THE PRIMARILY SFC LOW TAKES             
OVR. GFS/SUPER ENSEMBLES/RUC DO NOT SEEM TO BE BUYING INTO THIS                 
SOLN AND HAVE THUS SIDED TWD GFS SOLN IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW               
CTR FOR TODAY.                                                                  
H5 LOW WILL EJECT NORTH TODAY AS NEXT S/WV DROPS INTO NRN PLAINS                
AND KICKS IT OUT. LOW IS PROGGED TO TAKE ON NEGATIVE TILT AS IT                 
HEADS UP INTO THE OH VALLEY. ALL SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE                
INDICATES THE LOW CTR TRACKING WEST OF THE FA TODAY. H8/H7 CENTERS              
ALSO EXPECTED TO TRACK THRU WRN NY/FINGER LAKES TODAY. AS H8 LOW                
TRACKS NORTH...WINDS WILL BACK ARND TO THE SOUTHEAST DRAWING WARMER             
AIR INTO CNY AFTR ABOUT 15Z.                                                    
CURRENTLY TEMPS ARE SITTING RIGHT ARND FZG. INITIAL BATCH OF PCPN               
WILL MV IN BTWN 12Z-15Z. BUFKIT PROFILES FROM THE NAM/GFS/RUC                   
INDICATE A MIX OF SLEET OR FZRA EARLY THIS MRNG...POSSIBLY MIXED                
WITH SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AS PROFILE RMNS ISOTHERMAL PER                   
ACARS DATA. AS WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN THE WARM LAYER AT 800MB                  
INCRS TO ARND +5C. FAR SRN AND ERN ZONES WILL RMN ABV FRZG AND                  
EXPECT ALL RAIN TODAY. SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED                 
WITH SHOWALTERS DROPPING BLO ZERO AND LAPSE RATES INCRSG TO 6.5-7               
FROM 15Z-21Z.                                                                   
FURTHER NORTH...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL GIVE WAY TO ALL RAIN               
AFTER ABOUT 15Z ACROSS PARTS OF CNY. HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY RMN                  
ARND FRZG FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY. WITH TEMPS ARND 32F...PCPN                
MAY HAVE A HARD TIME ACCUMULATING ON SFCS AND EXPECT ICING OF ONLY              
ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO THRU THE DAY ACROSS THE HILLTOPS.                    
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND FAR NORTH...FREEZING RAIN MAY HOLD ON               
A LITTLE LONGER AS TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE MIDDLE 30S. UP TO               
ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALTHO VALLEY LOCATIONS                  
SHUD WARM UP ENUF TO SEE PLAIN RAIN.                                            
THUS...HAVE LEFT WINTER WX ADVISORIES IN PLACE WHERE THEY                       
PREVIOUSLY WERE. DELAWARE COUNTY MAY BE A QUESTION MARK AS TO                   
WHETHER SOME SPOTS MAY SEE SOME ICING BUT HAVE OPTED NOT TO                     
INCLUDE THEM AS OF YET AS MOST OF THE COUNTY SHUD WARM UP FAIRLY                
QUICKLY ALOFT. WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR STEUBEN...SCHUYLER...                  
MADISON AND SRN ONEIDA HAVE BEEN DROPPED TO WINTER WX ADVISORIES.               
VRY LITTLE SNOW IS EXPECTED TODAY AND ICING AMNTS WILL NOT BE ENUF              
TO PUSH THESE AREAS TO WARNING CRITERIA.                                        
REGARDING THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...H8 JET INCREASES TO 40-50KTS                  
THIS AFTN WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TRAJECTORY AS H8 LOW MVS NORTH.                
THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH SRN STREAM SPEED MAX AND POSSIBLE                      
ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR FLOODING TODAY.                
CUD SEE SOME URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING BUT FEEL THE BETTER                
CHC FOR HVY RAIN HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST BASED ON TRACK                
OF SFC LOW AND H8 SPEED MAX. MODELS HV COME IN LIGHTER ON QPF WITH              
0.50-1.00 INCHES EXPECTED FROM I-81 CORRIDOR EAST. WITH RIVERS                  
STILL HIGH AND PROGGED TO RISE TO NR/ABV FLOOD STAGE ON THE                     
SUSQUEHANNA AND DELAWARE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO KEEP FLOOD                 
WATCH GOING THRU SUNDAY MORNING. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CANCEL                
IT EARLY GIVEN PROGRESS OF HVY RAIN TO THE EAST.                                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...                                    
FCST FOR TONIGHT COMPLICATED WITH REGARD TO SNOWFALL AMNTS/WARNING              
CRITERIA PCPN. SFC LOW PASSES THRU THIS EVENING AND DRAWS COLD AIR IN           
VRY QUICKLY. TEMPS ALOFT PLUMMET BHND THE STORM WITH H8 TEMPS DOWN              
TO NR -15C AFTER 06Z. PCPN WILL CHG TO ALL SNOW OVR MOST OF CNY                 
AFTER 00Z. QPF FROM 00Z NAM/GFS BOTH GIVE ABOUT ONE HALF INCH                   
ACROSS THE FINGER LKS/MOHAWK VALLEY OVERNIGHT. TREMENDOUS LIFT                  
BEING ADVERTISED ALONG WITH RAPIDLY LOWERING SNOW GROWTH LAYER.                 
INITIAL PLAN WAS TO DROP WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.                           
HOWEVER...WRAP- ROUND OCCASIONALLY HAS A TENDENCY TO INTENSIFY                  
DUE TO THE LAKE INFLUENCE. WITH FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH                           
AREA...INTENSE LIFT AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE OVR NRN                    
SECTIONS...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP WARNING GOING FROM YATES THRU                     
ONONDAGA AND NRN ONEIDA. THE BEST CHC FOR 12-HR WARNING CRITERIA                
ACCUMS WILL BE FROM PENN YAN TO SYRACUSE TO BOONVILLE WITH 5-8                  
INCHES POSSIBLE. LIMITING FACTOR IN ALL THIS WILL BE THE SPEED AT               
WHICH THE STORM DEPARTS THE AREA. PCPN WILL ONLY HV ABOUT A 4-6 HR              
WINDOW TO WORK WITH IN ORDER TO GET WARNING CRITERIA.                           
THE ADVISORY AREA WILL ONLY SEE ABOUT 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMS                 
OVRNGT BUT SLEET AND FZRA EXPECTED SAT AFTN WARRANTS KEEPING                    
HEADLINE RUNNING.                                                               
NEXT CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE WINDS BHND THE STORM. TIGHT                    
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST ARND LOW AS IT CONTINUES TO DEEPEN                 
INTO NRN VT. MODELS HINTING AT H8 WINDS OF 50KTS BLOWING THRU ON                
BACKSIDE OF SFC LOW. WUD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE GUSTS UP TO 45 KTS             
OVERNIGHT OVR THE HILLTOPS. WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE HOISTED                
LATER ON. FOR THE TIME BEING...PREFER TO CVR POTENTIAL IN                       
SUBSEQUENT WINTER WX HEADLINES AND THE HWO. AREAS OF SNOW AND                   
BLOWING SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT - ONE MORE FACTOR IN FAVOR OF              
KEEPING SOME PORTIONS OF THE WINTER STORM WARNING GOING.                        
THE SNOW SHUD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW RAPIDLY MVS              
NORTH AND EAST. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON                    
SUNDAY BUT CONDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ADVISORY ACCUMS              
WITH THE SNOWS. LAKE EFFECT WILL SLOWLY COME TO AN END ON MONDAY                
AS HIPRES TRIES TO BUILD IN.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                          
WITH FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM MIXED EVENT ABOUT TO GET UNDERWAY...               
WE HAVE FOLLOWED THE HPC GUIDANCE WITH THIS FCST UPDATE. IN                     
GENERAL...MED RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL                
INFLUENCE WX ACROSS CNY/NEPA WITH TRANSIENT WEAK SYSTEMS PASSING                
THROUGH THE AREA. NOTHING AT THIS TIME LOOKS SIGNIFICANT. COLD                  
ENOUGH FOR CHC SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING SUN NITE AND             
MONDAY. LACK OF SYNOPTIC MOISTURE SHOULD MAKE ANY LES A LIGHT EVENT.            
WEAK TROF/FRONT PASSAGES TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO                  
FRIDAY WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS DURING             
THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDS INTO                 
THURS. TEMPS START OFF BELOW NORMAL...THEN DECENT WAA AHEAD OF FRONT            
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY SHOULD BRING TEMPS ABOVE.                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                   
PRECIP MOVING BACK INTO ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS                  
WILL BE A CHALLENGE, BOTH FOR FLYING AND FOR FORECASTING. WILL                  
LIKELY SEE AN AVERAGE OF IFR CONDITIONS TODAY, ALTHOUGH                         
FLUCTUATIONS ON EITHER SIDE ARE EXPECTED. LOWEST CONDITIONS LIKELY              
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF KBGM AND KITH WHERE LIFR WILL BE COMMON.                
A MIX OF PRECIP THIS MORNING AT KSYR, KITH, KELM, KBGM...CHANGING               
TO ALL RAIN BY LATE THIS MORNING. AT KAVP, ALL RAIN...BUT THERE                 
ARE A FEW TSRA TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE STATION, SO HAVE                    
INCLUDED A CB GROUP FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING.                               
PRECIP CHANGES OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING AND TAPERS OFF, WITH                   
GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR, AND POSSIBLY EVEN VFR DURING THE                   
OVERNIGHT.                                                                      
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY, 10 KTS OR LESS...WILL INCREASE OUT              
OF THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT, 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS.                    
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.                                                           
MON...VFR. NO SIG WX.                                                           
TUES...MVFR...CHC SNOW SHOWERS.                                                 
WED...VFR. NO SIG WX.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-             
     048-072.                                                                   
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ038-039.              
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR NYZ009-037-045-046-                 
     055>057-062.                                                               
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ022>025-              
     036-037-044>046-055-056.                                                   
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018.             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...PVB                                                                  
NEAR TERM...PVB                                                                 
SHORT TERM...PVB                                                                
LONG TERM...JAB                                                                 
AVIATION...JML/TAC                                                              
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
845 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS CLOUD TRENDS/TEMPERATURES AND RESIDUAL              
SNOW CHANCES. RETURNS FROM KMVX-88D CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS WAVE                
ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW SHIFTS SOUTH. ANY MINOR RESTRICTION TO                
VISIBILITY CONFINED TO EASTERN FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE ONGOING             
TRENDS OF DIMINISHING ANY SNOWFALL TO FLURRIES AS EVENING GOES ON.              
CLOUD TRENDS A LITTLE MORE TRICKY. BINOVC EARLIER THIS EVENING                  
BEGINNING TO FILL IN AND CLOUDS LIKELY TO HOLD IN MOST OF OVERNIGHT.            
RUC DOES SHOW SOME SUBTLE DRYING ACROSS NORTHERN FA LATE TONIGHT.               
THERMAL ADVECTION PRETTY NEUTRAL AS UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTHWARD AND              
TEMPERATURES WILL HINGE GREATLY ON CLOUD COVER. WILL NUDGE                      
TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES BUT WILL KEEP COLDEST TEMPERATURES                
ACROSS NORTH WHICH WILL SEE BEST CHANCES FOR CLEARING.                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...CIGS AND VSBY IMPROVING WITH ANY MVFR CIGS CONFINED TO              
AREAS EAST OF VALLEY. EXPECT IMPROVING TRENDS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.            
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
VOELKER                                                                         
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX                                             
1014 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD SHRTWV HAS MOVED EAST OF                
AREA WITH STRONGEST CONVECTION VCNTY STALLED FRONT STRETCHING FROM              
SOUTH OF MIDLAND TO NEAR WICHITA FALLS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OK. THIS              
ACTIVITY SUPPORTED BY SOUTHERLY LLJ AS SEEN ON VWP/PROFILER                     
NETWORK ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL TX. TRAILING LOBE OF                    
ENERGY WEST OF EL PASO WILL ROTATE ACROSS BIG BEND OVERNIGHT                    
KEEPING FOCUS FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE TRANS PECOS INTO THE CONCHO                 
VALLEY AND HILL COUNTRY. LOCALLY...OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION HAS                  
PUSHED HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR WESTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST CORNER. MODELS               
BRING THIS MOISTURE WESTWARD ALONG SOUTHERN EDGE OF CAPROCK BY                  
MORNING DESPITE BEING OPPOSED BY MORE NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS. AS               
PRESSURES FALL ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IN RESPONSE TO NEXT                 
SHRTWV DIVING QUICKLY SOUTHWARD ON MON...SOME OF THIS MOISTURE                  
COULD BE PULLED NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS. EXPECT LITTLE                
AFFECT ON LATER PERIODS OF FORECAST SO HAVE UPDATED NIGHTTIME                   
PERIOD TO REDUCE POPS ACROSS SE CORNER AND BRING SLIGHTLY HIGHER                
DEWPOINTS/WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS SMALL SECTION WHERE                      
MOISTURE HAS INCREASED.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LIKELHOOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KLBB CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE DESIPITE PERSISTENT      
DRYING IN NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ON THE CAPROCK. SOME LOW LEVEL                 
MOISTURE HAS BEEN ENRICHED COURTESY OF OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTIVE                  
COMPLEXT ACROSS BIG COUNTRY. SHORT TERM MODELS NAM/RUC BRING                    
MOISTURE WESTWARD OVERNIGHT AT 850 MB ON CONTINUED E/NE WINDS IN                
VERY WEAK UPGLIDE. ANY LOW CLOUD FORMATION SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED                
AND SCATTERED AND WITH THAT CURRENTLY IN TAF WILL LEAVE IT FOR 06Z              
ISSUANCE.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
24                                                                              
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
908 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR DEPICT/NWP MODELS PROG THE APPROACH OF AN                 
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THE GFS PROGS THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE                   
LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT AND ANTICIPATE VERTICAL MIXING OVR THE                  
WATERS. FURTHER...THE NAM/GFS/RUC PROG 20KT SFC WIND OVR THE                    
WATERS BY 06Z SUN. WL INTRODUCE SCA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FOR                  
TNGT...AND ANTICIPATE SCEC CONDITIONS FOR THE BAYS. WL MAKE                     
SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT TEMPS FOR THE ERN CWFA                   
BASED ON CURRENT/EXPECTED DEW POINTS. BASED ON THE THERMODYNAMIC                
PROFILE OVERNIGHT (INCREASING SFC THETA-E VALUES COUPLED WITH                   
EXTREMELY DRY ALOFT) PATCHY FOG COULD OCCUR OVR THE ERN CWFA                    
OVERNIGHT. HWR...EXPECT WIND TO PRECLUDE SUCH.                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...UPPER TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND                  
RESULTANT PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS WILL LOWER FURTHER OVERNIGHT INTO            
SUNDAY. AS A RESULT...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ADVECT LOWER               
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 35              
TO 40 KNOT LLJ WILL DEVELOP ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...SOUTHERN                  
COASTAL PLAINS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND BY 12Z. BKN TO OVC SKIES               
WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SUNDAY...MAINLY EAST             
OF HIGHWAY 281.  THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EVIDENT RIDING UP                   
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST OF TAMAULIPAS MEXICO THIS EVENING. VFR                
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU SUNRISE. BOTH CIRRIFORM CLOUDS WILL                
INCREASE FROM THE WEST SUNDAY IN CONCERT WITH AREAS OF MVFR LOW LVL             
CIGS JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM FALFURRIAS TO             
THREE RIVERS. BKN CIGS OF 3-5 THOUSAND FEET WILL PREVAIL THRU THE               
MORNING DAYLIGHT HOURS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH SOUTHEASTERLY             
SURFACE WINDS AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED AFT 15Z WITH SOME HIGHER               
GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KNOTS OVER THE COASTAL BEND AND COASTAL                 
PLAINS. COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT STRAY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ON SUN...              
BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE TAF. WEST OF HIGHWAY                
16...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD AT            
COTULLA AND LAREDO WITH BREEZY WINDS DEVELOPING AFT 15Z.                        
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
CORPUS CHRISTI    52  73  62  74  57  /  10  10  40  60  60                     
VICTORIA          45  70  59  70  53  /  10  20  50  80  60                     
LAREDO            54  82  62  78  58  /   0   0  20  50  20                     
ALICE             47  74  59  75  55  /  10  10  30  60  50                     
ROCKPORT          55  70  63  69  58  /  10  10  40  70  70                     
COTULLA           44  77  61  75  51  /   0  10  30  60  30                     
KINGSVILLE        50  74  60  75  58  /  10  10  30  50  50                     
NAVY CORPUS       56  71  64  72  59  /  10  10  40  60  60                     
&&                                                                              
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT                 
     SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY                  
     TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO                 
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO                    
     PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA                
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WC/87...SHORT TERM                                                              
SC/70...AVIATION                                                                
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA                                             
1112 AM PDT SUN MAR 9 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST TODAY. A PACIFIC                
STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY               
WITH WARMER YET WETTER CONDITIONS. A RIDGE WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY             
...ALTHOUGH A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE              
END OF THE WORK WEEK.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
REST OF TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED AT THE SFC (CENTERED                  
OVER IDAHO/GREAT BASIN AREA). COUPLED WITH A MOIST BL (UP TO ABOUT              
900 MB)...A LIGHT SE FLOW AT THE SFC AND WEAK WAA AT 850 HELPING                
TO MAINTAIN AN INVERSION....THIS SET-UP LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT                  
STRATUS AND FOG (LOCALLY DENSE) A LITTLE PAST MIDNIGHT ACROSS                   
PORTIONS OF THE SPOKANE/C`DA AREA AND SOME NRN VALLEYS...AS WELL                
AS ACROSS THE L-C AREA. THE MOIST LAYER IS ABOUT 400-500 FEET                   
DEEP. THE NAM AND RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS (WHICH INITIALIZED WELL                   
COMPARED TO THE 12Z SOUNDING) INDICATE THE INVERSION BREAKING                   
TOWARD 18Z AND BETTER MIXING TO BREAK UP THIS FOG/STRATUS. SOME OF              
THE DEEPER VALLEYS MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON TO COMPLETELY                  
LIFT OUT THE STRATUS. HOWEVER MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING IN               
ALOFT. ON LARGER A SCALE...A LONG-WAVE TROUGH IN THE GULF OF AK                 
HAS THE PACIFIC NW IN A WSW FLOW. A STREAM OF MOISTURE AND A                    
COUPLE SHORT-WAVE SYSTEMS ARE PIVOTING AROUND THAT FEATURE. ONE                 
SHORT-WAVE IS SLIPPING INTO BC. MID AND HIGH MOISTURE AND                       
ASSOCIATED CLOUDS ARE SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST WITH THIS                      
FEATURE. MOST OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE                    
SHORT-WAVE REMAINS NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. AN ELONGATED/WEAK              
VORT MAX WAS PASSING EAST OF THE CASCADES AND A SECOND WEAK VORT                
MAX ONTO THE WA COAST TOWARD 00Z. THIS COMES WITH SOME DEEPENING                
ON MOISTURE INTO THE CASCADES AND SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT AS A WARM              
FRONT STARTS TO LIFT NORTH. THIS WILL MEAN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR                  
SHOWERS NEAR THE CASCADES LATE. OTHERWISE THE REST OF TODAY WILL                
BE DRY. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING BELOW GUIDANCE AND FORECAST.                   
VALUES WERE CUT BACK 2-3 DEGREES /J                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOG/STRATUS WILL LIFT TO MAINLY VFR/LCL MVFR CIGS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.             
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING IN TONIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BRING IN                      
MID/HIGH CLOUDS...GRADUALLY LOWERING BY LATE AM TO MIDDAY MONDAY.               
HOWEVER...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS FCST TO 18Z. RISK FOR LIGHT                  
PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST AFTER 12-15Z...WITH                
LCL MVFR CIGS WITH PRECIP. /J                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
SPOKANE        49  37  53  42  46  29 /   0   0  20  80  40  20                 
COEUR D`ALENE  46  35  53  42  46  29 /  10   0  20  80  60  30                 
PULLMAN        52  38  56  44  48  31 /   0   0  10  80  50  20                 
LEWISTON       57  40  63  47  54  35 /   0   0  10  80  50  10                 
COLVILLE       50  34  50  39  46  28 /   0  10  40  70  40  20                 
SANDPOINT      47  33  49  40  46  29 /  10  10  30  80  60  40                 
KELLOGG        46  34  55  41  47  30 /  10   0  20  90  60  50                 
MOSES LAKE     56  39  55  41  55  31 /   0   0  30  40  10  10                 
WENATCHEE      52  39  52  42  55  33 /   0  10  30  40  10  10                 
OMAK           51  34  50  38  53  26 /   0  20  50  50  10  10                 
&&                                                                              
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ID...NONE.                                                                      
WA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> wa                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
252 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT                                   
FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON SNOW CHANCES TONIGHT AS WELL AS CLOUD                  
TRENDS...THEN TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                                   
18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR KDBQ                
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. MEANWHILE A            
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE LOW NORTHWEST ACROSS THE              
FORECAST AREA AND INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN THE             
FOCUS FOR VERY LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.                   
09.12Z SHORT RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS             
CONTINUES TO HAVE MORE MOISTURE AND RESULTANT QPF ON TUESDAY AS A               
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN INTO THE            
GREAT LAKES. IT IS THE ONLY ONE WITH QPF INTO THE AREA AND                      
THUS DISCOUNTING THIS SOLUTION.                                                 
IN THE NEAR TERM...BOTH THE GFS/NAM AS WELL AS THE RUC SHOWING VERY             
WEAK QG CONVERGENCE THIS EVENING ALONG THE TROUGH ACROSS NORTHEAST              
IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. ALL THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY              
LIGHT QPF IN THIS REGION. HOWEVER...WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE               
BACKED OFF TO JUST FLURRIES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. NEXT                     
QUESTION IS CLOUDS. SATELLITE TRENDS SHOWING QUITE A FEW HOLES IN               
THE CLOUDS OVERHEAD WITH CLEARING SKIES ALREADY TAKING PLACE ACROSS             
THE NORTHERN ZONES.. MODEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY TRENDS SHOW A SLOW                 
DECREASE IN THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH SAGS SOUTHWARD.                  
HIGH PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES THE WEATHER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT                
WITH QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED. A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN                  
MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY...BUT MOISTURE VERY                    
LIMITED SO ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. AS             
THE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WARM ADVECTION WILL BEGIN...              
DRAWING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.              
850MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE PLUS SIDE OF ZERO AND WITH A DECENT              
AMOUNT OF SUN WILL SEE TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TO NEAR OR                     
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.                 
GUIDANCE VALUES SHOWING ALL AREAS TO RISE INTO THE 40S BOTH DAYS.               
WITH THE CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP BACK BELOW THE                    
FREEZING MARK SO MELTING TEMPERATURES TO BE CONFINED TO DAYTIME                 
HOURS.                                                                          
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY                                            
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN                
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. NORTHWEST FLOW TO DOMINATE THROUGH SATURDAY                
BEFORE LARGE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS...BUCKLING THE                
FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC 09.06Z               
GFS AND 09.00Z ECMWF SHOW SHORTWAVE ADVANCING ALONG THE CANADIAN                
BORDER ON THURSDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...            
WHICH WILL USHER IN ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND.                 
THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE SOME WARMER AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE               
AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION RAIN              
OR SNOW CHANCES...ALBEIT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS LOOKS TO BE IN            
THE LIGHT SIDE.                                                                 
RABERDING                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
AN INVERTED TROUGH CONTINUES TO RESIDE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...            
NORTHEAST IOWA...AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF WISCONSIN. THIS TROUGH WAS            
PRODUCING A SCATTERED TO BROKEN MVFR DECK /1500 TO 2500 FEET/ AND               
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WHICH REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO 3 MILES IN                 
A FEW PLACES. THE 09.12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THIS TROUGH               
WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA ON MONDAY MORNING. AS                
THIS OCCURS...THE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ANTICYCLONIC AND THE               
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS               
SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z MONDAY. HOWEVER...I AM A BIT                   
CONCERNED THAT THIS MAY BECOME SOONER...BECAUSE THERE ARE SOME HOLES            
IN THE CLOUDS. ONCE THESE CLOUDS BREAK UP...WE SHOULD VFR CONDITIONS            
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF MONDAY.                                                
BOYNE                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
829 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...HAVE ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR                           
MILWAUKEE...RACINE AND KENOSHA COUNTIES AS IMPRESSIVE LAKE SNOW                 
BAND WITH TERMINAL DOPPLER RETURNS AROUND 30DBZ TO PERSIST OVER                 
THESE COUNTIES INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. CURRENT WRF4G MAINTAINS SNOW               
BAND ALONG LAKESHORE AREAS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH HIGH SNOW                 
RATIOS EXPECT 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS CLOSE TO LAKE                   
SHORE.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2008/                          
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS IS ON LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THIS                
MORNING...THEN ON GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                    
IT APPEARS THAT HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE UNLIKELY TO OCCUR            
THIS MORNING FOR A VARIETY OF REASONS. RUC AND GFS SOUNDINGS                    
INDICATE A LOW LEVEL INVERSION AT AROUND 1K FEET...AND ANOTHER                  
INVERSION AROUND 4K FEET. THE COLUMN APPEARS TO BE QUITE DRY ABOVE              
4K FEET WITH LITTLE OR NO OMEGA. ALSO...THE FETCH IS NOT OPTIMAL AND            
LAKE INDUCED MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED. THERE IS NO ORGANIZED BANDS              
SHOWING ON RADAR AT THIS TIME...JUST MULTIPLE VERY WEAK BANDS                   
GENERALLY NORTH OF CWA. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE               
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH ONLY WEAK UNORGANIZED SNOW BANDS               
AFFECTING THE AREAS CLOSE TO LAKE MICHIGAN. WITH A 25 TO 1 RATIO...I            
EXPECT AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN COULD SEE AN INCH OR 2 AT MOST THIS             
MORNING...AND ONLY SCATTERED VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.            
A VERY WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT ACROSS                    
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS             
VERY LITTLE DYNAMICS AND QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. THERE MAY              
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF ISENT LIFT BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z THIS                        
EVENING...BUT LITTLE ELSE TO RECOMMEND THE SYSTEM. I THINK SOME                 
LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WILL OCCUR...BUT WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE SNOW             
IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. POPS WILL REMAIN LOW.                                 
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE COLUMN            
REMAINS QUITE DRY WITH NO DYNAMICS. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH                  
STRONG WARMING TREND BEGINING MONDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND            
WEDNESDAY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.                                               
AVIATION...PREDOMINANT SINGLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND IS PUSHING                  
INLAND AS NE GRADIENT FLOW OVERCOMING WEAKER NNW FLOW ON WRN SIDE OF            
LK MI. SINGLE BAND IS EVOLVING INTO SHORTER MULITPLE BANDS...MAINLY             
FROM SHEBOYGAN NORTH. EXPECT VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH BRIEF MVFR                 
CONDITIONS AS THE LIGHT SNOW BANDS MOVE ACROSS KMKE AND KENW THROUGH            
18Z...THEN BANDS AND CLOUDS PUSH OUT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN.                        
KMSN SHOULD SEE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.                   
MARINE...ALTERED GENERAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO A SMALL CRAFT FOR              
HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 00Z SAT AS WINDS HAVE FALLEN BELOW                         
CRITERIA...BUT WAVES TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITERIA AT 4 TO 6                         
FEET...MAINLY TOWARD OPEN WATER THEN SUBSIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.             
&&                                                                              
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                
     WIZ066-071-072.                                                            
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS                
     AFTERNOON FOR LMZ643>646.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT/LONG TERM...17/ZAJDEL                                                     
AVIATION/MARINE...20/GEHRING                                                    
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI                                           
447 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS               
LIKELY TODAY IN MANITOWOC COUNTY. RUC SUGGESTS WINDS WILL REMAIN                
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE THROUGH ABOUT 18Z THEN BACK ENOUGH SO THAT SNOW              
MOVES OFFSHORE. PARTLY SUNNY AND COLD ELSEWHERE. COMPACT SYSTEM                 
OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA LOOKS LIKE IT WANTS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST                 
TOWARDS OUR FORECAST AREA ACCORDING TO SATELLITE PICTURES. BUT                  
MODELS INSIST THAT BIG SORM MOVING THROUGH EASTERN UNITED STATES                
KEEPS IT FROM MOVING EAST...AND EASTERN WISCONSIN IS MORE OR LESS               
IN SUBSIDENCE AREA BETWEEN THE STORM SYSTEMS. SO EASTERN DAKOTA                 
STORM SHOULD DIG MORE TO THE SOUTH AND WEAKEN. SOME LIGHT SNOW                  
POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND                   
SUNDAY BUT NOTHING SIGIFICANT EXPECTED. CLOUDS WILL HAVE A LARGE                
EFFECT ON LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.                                             
&                                                                               
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                              
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN ON SUNDAY NIGHT. 00Z GFS AND              
00Z ECMWF HAD A SURFACE HIGH FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN                 
PLAINS TO IOWA DURING THE DAY. THIS SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR AND                  
WEAK SURFACE FLOW TO THE AREA...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL                   
BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTH TO THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE ALONG THE                  
LAKESHORE.                                                                      
THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY WITH A                 
500MB SHORT WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW THAT MODELS SHOWED PASSING                   
THROUGH THE REGION AS A SURFACE LOW MOVED ACROSS ONTARIO. HAVE GONE WITH        
A CHANCE OF SNOW ONLY IN NORTHERN DOOR COUNTY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE               
OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR MOST OTHER LOCATIONS NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM              
TOMAHAWK TO OSHKOSH. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS STILL IN QUESTION WITH               
WARM ADVECTION EARLY...AND THEN COLD ADVECTION IN THE NORTH LATER IN            
THE DAY.                                                                        
A WEAK 500MB RIDGE AND A SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD THEN KEEP THE AREA                
FREE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THEY PASS THROUGH                    
WISCONSIN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN STARTING ON WEDNESDAY                   
NIGHT AS A 500MB TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS ALONG WITH A                 
SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS ALONG A TROUGH AXIS FROM HUDSON BAY TO                   
MEXICO. POPS WERE INCREASED INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY               
NIGHT BUT PRECIPITATION TYPE IS UNCERTAIN OVER MOST OF THE AREA AS              
SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROP DURING THE EVENING. THE FOX VALLEY EAST TO            
THE LAKE SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN DURING THE EVENING...BUT                
SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY MORNING SO A MIX WAS                  
MENTIONED FOR LATER IN THE NIGHT.                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...LOCAL MVFR CIGS AND SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AROUND MTW                
THROUGH 18Z TODAY...BUT VFR EXPECTED ELSEWHERE TODAY AND TONIGHT.               
&&                                                                              
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RDM/MG                                                                          
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
316 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2008                                                       
..DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS IS ON LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THIS               
MORNING...THEN ON GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                    
IT APPEARS THAT HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE UNLIKELY TO OCCUR            
THIS MORNING FOR A VARIETY OF REASONS. RUC AND GFS SOUNDINGS                    
INDICATE A LOW LEVEL INVERSION AT AROUND 1K FEET...AND ANOTHER                  
INVERSION AROUND 4K FEET. THE COLUMN APPEARS TO BE QUITE DRY ABOVE              
4K FEET WITH LITTLE OR NO OMEGA. ALSO...THE FETCH IS NOT OPTIMAL AND            
LAKE INDUCED MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED. THERE IS NO ORGANIZED BANDS              
SHOWING ON RADAR AT THIS TIME...JUST MULTIPLE VERY WEAK BANDS                   
GENERALLY NORTH OF CWA. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE               
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH ONLY WEAK UNORGANIZED SNOW BANDS               
AFFECTING THE AREAS CLOSE TO LAKE MICHIGAN. WITH A 25 TO 1 RATIO...I            
EXPECT AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN COULD SEE AN INCH OR 2 AT MOST THIS             
MORNING...AND ONLY SCATTERED VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.            
A VERY WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT ACROSS                    
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS             
VERY LITTLE DYNAMICS AND QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. THERE MAY              
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF ISENT LIFT BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z THIS                        
EVENING...BUT LITTLE ELSE TO RECOMMEND THE SYSTEM. I THINK SOME                 
LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WILL OCCUR...BUT WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE SNOW             
IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. POPS WILL REMAIN LOW.                                 
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE COLUMN            
REMAINS QUITE DRY WITH NO DYNAMICS. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH                  
STRONG WARMING TREND BEGINING MONDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND            
WEDNESDAY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...PREDOMINANT SINGLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND IS PUSHING                 
INLAND AS NE GRADIENT FLOW OVERCOMING WEAKER NNW FLOW ON WRN SIDE OF            
LK MI. SINGLE BAND IS EVOLVING INTO SHORTER MULITPLE BANDS...MAINLY             
FROM SHEBOYGAN NORTH. EXPECT VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH BRIEF MVFR                 
CONDITIONS AS THE LIGHT SNOW BANDS MOVE ACROSS KMKE AND KENW THROUGH            
18Z...THEN BANDS AND CLOUDS PUSH OUT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN.                        
KMSN SHOULD SEE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...ALTERED GENERAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO A SMALL CRAFT FOR             
HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 00Z SAT AS WINDS HAVE FALLEN BELOW                         
CRITERIA...BUT WAVES TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITERIA AT 4 TO 6                         
FEET...MAINLY TOWARD OPEN WATER THEN SUBSIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.             
&&                                                                              
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS                
     AFTERNOON FOR LMZ643>646.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT/LONG TERM...35                                                            
AVIATION/MARINE...09                                                            
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
950 AM EDT MON MAR 10 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY                  
WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING. A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT WILL               
CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM            
THE GULF STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.                                          
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
AS OF 950 AM MONDAY...                                                          
THIS AFTERNOON...WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SUGGEST SOME                       
STRENGTHENING OF PJ THAT EXTENDS SW TO NE FROM THE TN VALLEY TO OFF             
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...AIDING IN SOME ENHANCEMENT OF CIRRUS ACROSS            
THE REGION. THIS IN RESPONSE TO THE NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSE...DIVING            
SE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...WHICH IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE               
AREA OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE               
MAJORITY OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS             
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE                 
TROUGH.                                                                         
WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL ENSUE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL WIND                  
PROFILE VEERS AROUND TO SW. THICKNESSES THIS MORNING VERIFIED AT                
1320M THIS MORNING AT KGSO...VERY CLOSE TO THE NORMAL THICKNESS                 
(1324M)FOR THIS DATE...ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1335M.                
THIS WOULD YIELD A 5 TO 6 DEGREE INCREASE FROM SUNDAY`S HIGH                    
TEMPERATURES...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.                  
TONIGHT...                                                                      
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE UPPER LEVEL LIFT IN THE FORM OF DPVA...AND               
SFC LIFT ASSOC/W A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE (PRIMARILY BETWEEN                 
00-09Z TONIGHT)...THE LIFT WILL BE RATHER WEAK BECAUSE THE UPPER                
LEVEL WAVE WILL BE DE-AMPLIFYING AND THE SFC BOUNDARY ASSOC/W THE               
WEAK LOW MOVING EAST THROUGH THE DELMARVA WILL BRING ONLY                       
WEAK/SHALLOW LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ADDITIONALLY...WITH WESTERLY                
FLOW GENERALLY THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE COLUMN...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL              
BE RATHER DRY TONIGHT...WITH FCST PWAT VALUES OF 0.50" OR LESS. BOTH            
THE GFS/NAM KEEP ANY LIGHT MEASURABLE PRECIP ASSOC/W THIS SYSTEM                
WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL NC...AND ALONG THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS                
ALONG/WEST OF THE RIDGELINE IN WV/VA. THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH WE WILL              
LIKELY SEE CLOUDY SKIES AT TIMES...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY DUE TO            
THE ANEMIC AMOUNT OF MOISTURE/LIFT PROGGED. LOW TEMPS MAY BE A BIT              
TRICKY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING/EXTENT OF ANY CLOUD COVER...BUT A                
RANGE OF 35-41F SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCE APPEARS                    
REASONABLE. -VINCENT                                                            
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                       
AS OF 245 AM MONDAY...                                                          
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT:                                                      
WNW/NW FLOW ALOFT WILL GENERALLY BE PRESENT IN THE UPPER LEVELS                 
BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL WAVE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THERE             
MAY BE SOME VERY WEAK SFC AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PERSISTING OVER             
THE CAROLINAS DURING THE DAY (LOOKS LIKE A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE             
UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT BREAKS OFF AND                
LINGERS)...AND THE NAM IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN SHOWING THIS THAN            
THE GFS. THE GFS PROGS PWAT VALUES AROUND 0.20" ON TUESDAY...WHILE              
THE NAME IS OVER TWICE AS MOIST WITH PWAT VALUES IN THE 0.45" RANGE.            
THE ONLY REAL DIFFERENCE THIS COULD MAKE IN THE FORECAST IS WITH                
TEMPS AND WHETHER OR NOT DIURNAL CU WILL DEVELOP DURING THE                     
AFTERNOON HOURS TUE. W/REGARDS TO TEMPS...THE NAM FCST SOUNDINGS ARE            
SHOWING DEEP MIXING ON TUE...UP TO 750MB...WHILE THE GFS FCST                   
SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE A BIT SHALLOWER...MIXING UP TO ONLY 850-900MB.              
THICKNESSES ARE PROGGED TO RANGE FROM 1315-1340 METERS 12Z TUE...               
INCREASING TO 1330-1350 METERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE GFS                    
THICKNESSES ARE COLDER THAN THE NAM BY 5-15 METERS. LOCAL TEMP                  
RESEARCH SUGGEST A RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON TUE                 
BASED ON THESE THICKNESSES. THE 850MB TEMPS OFF THE GFS/NAM VARY BY             
ABOUT 4C TUE AFTERNOON...WITH THE GFS BEING COLDER THAN THE                     
NAM...AND USING THE DRY-ADIABATIC METHOD...THIS RESULTS IN A 5-8F               
DIFFERENCE IN HIGH TEMPS (UPPER 50S VERSUS LOWER/MID 60S). MOS                  
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S ON TUE.                  
BEARING ALL OF THIS IN MIND...WILL TRY TO BLEND THE RESULTS FROM                
THESE DIFFERENT METHODS AND MOS GUIDANCE...AND FORECAST A RANGE OF              
61-64F ACROSS THE AREA. OVERNIGHT...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A                      
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD BE                 
CLOSE TO OPTIMAL...ALTHOUGH THE FCST MSLP GRADIENT SUGGESTS THERE               
MAY BE VERY LIGHT WINDS IN SOME LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 30S             
TO LOWER 40S LOOK REASONABLE...AND THIS IS WHAT MOS GUIDANCE IS                 
SUGGESTING.                                                                     
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT:                                                  
A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE EAST ALONG THE            
GULF COAST ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NEW                  
ENGLAND IS PROGGED TO LIFT ENE TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. NORTH CAROLINA               
WILL REMAIN IN-BETWEEN THESE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS...AND BENIGN                   
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE DAY WED...WITH MOSTLY                
SUNNY SKIES. ADDITIONALLY...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT IS PROGGED             
TO APPROACH THE STATE FROM THE WEST BY WED EVENING. THICKNESSES OFF             
THE GFS/NAM ON WED ARE VERY SIMILAR TO TUE...AND FCST SOUNDINGS OFF             
THE GFS/NAM ARE MUCH MORE IN-LINE WITH EACH OTHER THAN THEY ARE FOR             
TUE...BOTH SHOWING MIXING UP TO 850MB WITH 2-3C TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL.            
BASED ON THE THICKNESSES AND H85 TEMPS...WILL FORECAST MAX TEMPS A              
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TUE...RANGING FROM 63-67F...SLIGHTLY LOWER              
THAN MOS GUIDANCE IN MOST LOCATIONS. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT             
APPEARS ON TAP WED NIGHT...AND WILL FORECAST LOW TEMPS RANGING FROM             
THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S (COOLEST TEMPS IN RURAL AREAS).                        
THURSDAY:                                                                       
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT IS PROGGED BY THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF                
(NEWEST ECMWF NOT IN YET) TO CROSS OVER THE STATE ON THU. THE ECMWF             
SHOWS A NARROW SFC RIDGE AXIS (WEAK/DRY CAD SIGNATURE) IN THE LEE OF            
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THU MORNING...ASSOC/W 1025MB HIGH PRESSURE            
IN QUEBEC. THE GFS IS WEAKER WITH THE SFC HIGH IN CANADA...AND SHOWS            
NO HINT OF A SFC RIDGE AXIS IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS THU MORNING.            
THIS DIFFERENCE COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPS THU...ALTHOUGH               
EVEN IF THE 12Z 03/09 ECMWF IS ON TO SOMETHING...NO DIABATIC                    
ENHANCEMENT OF THE POTENTIAL WEDGE WOULD OCCUR...AND A VERY WEAK/DRY            
CAD SIGNAL WOULD NOT MAKE TOO MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE IN MAX TEMPS OVER            
CENTRAL NC ANYWAYS. BASED ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN...MOSTLY              
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON THU (EXCEPT PERHAPS A FEW MID/UPPER                 
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM UPSTREAM). HIGH TEMPS ON THU             
LOOK TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN ON WED GIVEN THICKNESSES IN THE            
1340-1360 METER RANGE...AND WILL FORECAST ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS               
RANGING FROM 65-69F ACROSS THE AREA. -VINCENT                                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                   
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...                                                          
A COUPLE OF WAVES IN RAPID SUCCESSION WITHIN FAST WESTERLY FLOW                 
APPROACH LATE IN THE WEEK AND APPEAR TO ORIGINATE IN A STRONG                   
PERTURBATION OVER THE NORTH PAC NOW BETWEEN 160-180W. THOUGH BOTH               
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW GENERALLY THE SAME TWO-WAVE PATTERN...                       
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR DETAILS ON THE TIMING AND IMPACT OF                  
THESE DISTURBANCES ON SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER CENTRAL NC THU NIGHT                
THROUGH SAT NIGHT.                                                              
FORECASTS WILL SHOW AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS THU NIGHT AND VARIABLY            
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FRI THROUGH SAT THEN DECREASING CLOUDINESS               
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.  RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20-30                   
PERCENT RANGE FRI-SAT.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSE TO NORMAL             
WITH A SOMEWHAT NARROWED DIURNAL RANGE BECAUSE OF EXPECTED                      
CLOUDINESS.  -RFG                                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
AS OF 950 AM MONDAY...                                                          
CONFLUENT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A COUPLE OF DRY COLD FRONTS                   
LEADING DRY CONTINENTAL AIR THROUGH CENTRAL NC SHOULD MAINTAIN                  
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THU NIGHT. A STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE               
AND ASSOCIATED TRANSIENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY LOWER CIGS AND                 
VSBY TO MVFR OR IFR WITH AREAS OF RAIN FRI. -RFG                                
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...CBL/VINCENT                                                          
NEAR TERM...VINCENT                                                             
SHORT TERM...VINCENT                                                            
LONG TERM...RFG                                                                 
AVIATION...RFG                                                                  
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
415 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW INTO              
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BTWN A TROF OVER ERN CANADA AND A RIDGE OVER            
WRN NOAM. THE MAIN UPSTREAM FEATURE WAS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING             
FROM NORTHERN ALBERTA INTO SASKATCHEWAN. AT THE SFC...WRLY FLOW WAS             
INCREASING BTWN HIGH PRES OVER IA/KS/MO AND A TROUGH/FRONT OVER NRN             
ONTARIO. WITH THE VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...THE WAA PATTERN INTO              
UPPER MI WAS ONLY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS.                          
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...                                            
ALTHOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL OFF THIS                   
EVENING...INCREASING WINDS AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT MAY RESULT IN              
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS FROM MIN VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS.               
DOWNSLOPE WSW WINDS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS UP OVER PORTIONS OF WEST               
AND N CNTRL UPPER MI.                                                           
TUE...MODERATE TO STRONG 700-500 MB QVECTOR CONV ALONG WITH FAIRLY              
STEEP 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES(AROUND 7 TO 7.5 C/KM) SHOULD BE ENOUGH             
TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW FROM NRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE NE CWA               
IN SPITE OF THE ANTECEDENT DRY AIR. SO...THE FCST LEANED A BIT MORE             
TOWARD THE GFS AND CANADIAN REGIONAL GEM WITH LIKELY POPS NE AND                
CHANCE N CNTRL COMPARED TO THE NAM WHICH DOES NOT PRODUCE ANY PCPN              
OVER UPPER MI. ANY PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF IN THE AFTERNOON. MODEL                
SOUNDINGS AND LOW LEVEL WET-BULB ZERO VALUES WOULD KEEP PCPN AS                 
SNOW. QPF VALUES SUGGEST ANY SNOWFALL WILL BE LESS THAN INCH.                   
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)...                               
NW WINDS ON BACK SIDE OF LOW ALONG WITH H85 TEMPS NEAR -10C GOOD                
ENOUGH FOR CHANCE POPS EARLY TUE NIGHT OVR FAR EAST CWA.                        
OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES WITH TEMPORARY RIDGING. PWAT MIN              
MOVING THROUGH SUGGESTS SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN TAKE PLACE.                
WENT BLO GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS.                                                
INCREASING CLOUDS BY MIDDAY WED THEN MIXED PRECIPITATION STILL ON               
TRACK FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN             
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRACKING A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE (A PIECE              
OF ENERGY EMERGING FM THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE NOW OFFSHORE OF BRITISH            
COLUMBIA) AND SFC LOW JUST NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR ON THU. DESPITE FACT            
THAT GFS SHOWS H3 JET STREAKING INTO GREAT LAKES ON WED NIGHT AND               
THE ECMWF NOT HAVING ANY SUCH FEATURE...MAJORITY OF PCPN THAT OCCURS            
WED NIGHT IS TIED TO LIFTING ALONG ADVANCING SFC TROUGH AND                     
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 280-290K SFCS. GFS/ECMWF SHOW MUCH BETTER                
AGREEMENT ON THESE FEATURES ALONG WITH RESULTING QPF. HAVE INCREASED            
POPS TO LIKELY. PTYPE ALSO SEEMING TO COME INTO SOME AGREEMENT.                 
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY PCPN ARRIVES ON WED POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW            
MIX EXISTS INTO EARLY WED EVENING DUE TO RESIDUAL WARM AIR NEAR SFC.            
1000-850MB THICKNESSES AND 2M TEMPS FM ECMWF/GFS SUGGEST ANY MIXED              
RAIN/SNOW WOULD CHANGE TO SNOW BY 06Z THU. COULD SEE UP TO 2 INCHES             
OF SNOW WITH THE SYSTEM ON WED NIGHT.                                           
IN WAKE OF THE SFC TROUGH...DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT PCPN CHANCES THU.              
ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN ALL SHOW A MINIMUM IN QPF IN THE 12 HR PERIOD                
ENDING AT 00Z FRI. PACIFIC AIR PUSHING IN BEHIND THE TROUGH ALLOWS              
TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 30S. SO...IF ANY PCPN DOES OCCUR IT WOULD                
LIKELY BE IN FORM OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR STRICTLY RAIN.                          
PREFERRED LESS AMPLIFIED/WARMER ECMWF/CANADIAN COMPARED TO GFS INTO             
THE WEEKEND. 12Z GFS IS COMING AROUND TO LESS TROUGHING OVR THE                 
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. H9-H85 TEMPS LOOK MARGINAL FOR LK EFFECT BUT               
WITH A NORTH WIND AND WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERING NEED TO KEEP SOME            
POPS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR FRI INTO SAT. LK EFFECT ENDS BY SUNDAY AS               
WINDS BECOME SE WITH SFC RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.                          
GFS/ECMWF CONSISTENT ON DEVELOPING SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM OVR                 
NATIONS MID SECTION BY NEXT MONDAY. ECMWF HAS LATCHED ONTO THIS                 
SOLUTION AND BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH IT FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS.              
DETAILS SHOULD BE TAKEN WITH GRAIN OF SALT AT THIS POINT AS THE                 
SHORTWAVES THAT ARE PROGGED TO MORPH INTO THIS LARGE SYSTEM ARE                 
STILL OUT IN THE PACIFIC...NEAR THE GULF OF ALASKA AND EXITING                  
JAPAN. WILL NEED TO WAIT TIL THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WHEN ENERGY                   
REACHES THE WEST COAST BEFORE IT BECOMES SAMPLED BY RAOB NETWORK.               
IT IS PRETTY INTERESTING THOUGH HOW CONSISTENT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN             
WITH A SYSTEM THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED SYSTEMS            
EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS CAN END UP SLOWER THAN PROGGED              
SO DECIDED TO KEEP PCPN OUT OF CWA ON SUN NIGHT. FOR NOW...HAVE                 
CHANCE POPS OVER ALL AREAS BY LATE ON DAY 7. TRACK OF STORM SUGGESTS            
SNOW FOR PTYPE BUT A FARTHER WEST TRACK WOULD RESULT IN LIQUID PCPN.            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES            
RIDGE DOMINATES THE REGION. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD DEVELOP AS A            
WRLY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING RIDGE AND LOW PRES            
MOVING INTO NRN ONTARIO. WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW ILL LEAD TO THE                   
CONTINUED LOWERING OF A MID-LVL CLOUD DECK FROM THIS EVENING INTO               
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR CIGS AREA EXPECTED AS A COLD FRONT MOVES              
INTO UPPER MI TUE MORNING.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS PORTIONS OF LAKE            
SUPERIOR TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW PRES TROUGH FROM             
CANADA. AS THE TROUGH PASSES ON TUESDAY WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST              
TO 25 KT OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE LAKE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND                    
EVENING. WINDS DIE OFF BRIEFLY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY                     
WEDNESDAY BUT THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 30 KT FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST             
WED EVENING AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW WED NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT             
WEST-NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY BEHIND THE TROUGH PASSAGE AND MAY APPROACH             
30 KT OVER THE FAR ERN PORTION OF THE LAKE. DUE TO EXTENSIVE ICE                
COVERAGE OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE AND WARMING                             
TEMPERATURES...FREEZING SPRAY WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR.                     
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JLB                                                                
LONG TERM...JLA                                                                 
AVIATION/MARINE...JLB                                                           
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
340 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT                                        
THE QUALITY OF MOISTURE HAS REMAINED POOR...KEEPING THE SNOW                    
ACTIVITY TO PREDOMINATELY FLURRIES.  LATEST TAMDAR SOUNDINGS DEPICT             
A SATURATED ENVIRONMENT LIMITED TO THE 900-700MB LAYER. THIS                    
AFTERNOONS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC GUIDANCE EXITS THE SHORTWAVE                 
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CLOUDS/FLURRIES MOMENTARILY. WILL CARRY NO                  
HYDROMETEORS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH SUBSIDENCE/ANTICYCLONIC            
VORTICITY ADVECTION AND LOSS OF ANY DIURNALLY ENHANCED LAPSE RATES.             
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DIP RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS WINDS REMAIN             
SUBDUED AND CLOUDS SCATTER QUICKLY. MAINLY GONE A DEGREE OR TWO                 
BELOW GUIDANCE GIVEN FAVORABLE RADIATING CONDITIONS...AROUND 20 FOR             
MOST AREAS. SHOULD NOT GET QUITE AS COLD TONIGHT SINCE RETURN FLOW              
WILL DEVELOP ALLOWING FOR SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION.                              
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY                                             
THE 12Z MODEL SUITE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO A NORTHERN            
STREAM WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE FROM CENTRAL CANADA               
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP ALREADY             
INDICATES A STRONG UPPER JET OVER WESTERN CANADA. THIS JET IS                   
FORECAST TO DIVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY                    
AFTERNOON...STRENGTHENING TO 110 KTS. UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED               
WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THIS JET WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS                    
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BY 00Z WED. THE UPPER JET WILL ALSO ALLOW THE MID             
LEVEL WAVE TO AMPLIFY AS IT CROSSES THE STATE. THE ASSOCIATED                   
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE STATE...WHILE A SURFACE            
TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH SE MI BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z WED. THIS                  
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO HAVE GOOD DYNAMICS...WITH A STRONG YET BRIEF              
SHOT OF DCVA AND UPPER DIVERGENCE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LACK OF DEEP            
MOISTURE TO BE THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR PRECIP. ALL MODEL                   
SOLUTIONS DO HOWEVER SHOW A NARROW RIBBON HIGHER 850-700MB THETA E              
AIR ADVECTING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THIS COMBINED WITH THE               
DYNAMICS WILL WARRANT A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIP BETWEEN THE 21Z TUE AND            
03Z WED TIME FRAME. WITH SURFACE TEMPS FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE                
UPPER 30S/NEAR 40 TUES AFTERNOON...THE BOUNDARY LAYER LOOKS TO BE               
WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.                                  
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND ACROSS THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY            
IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY EVENINGS WAVE. SKIES SHOULD ALSO CLEAR OUT BY            
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.            
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING LOW IS                   
FORECAST TO SINK S-SE ACROSS LAKE HURON LATE TUES NIGHT INTO                    
WEDNESDAY...CAUSING 850MB TEMPS TO DROP TO -8 TO -10C OVER THE THUMB            
REGION BY WED MORNING. THUS...HAVE BACKED OFF WED HIGHS A                       
BIT...CARRYING MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE LOWER 30S IN THE THUMB TO NEAR             
40 WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR.                                                   
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING THE NEXT WAVE IS ALREADY FORECAST TO BE                    
ADVANCING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE VERY                       
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. WHILE THE MAIN SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST             
TO PASS NORTH OF THE STATE...MODELS DO SHOW AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVING            
ACROSS SOUTHERN MI EARLY THURS MORNING. STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL                 
THETA E ADVECTION LATE WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WILL AGAIN                
WARRANT A CHANCE OF PRECIP. MODELS ARE NOT OVERLY ROBUST WITH THE               
QPF. HOWEVER GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT...WILL                    
CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT WED THROUGH THURS MORNING.             
A WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN AROUND THE                  
DETROIT AREA. LOWER WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FARTHER NORTH SHOULD                  
HOWEVER SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX...POSSIBLY EVEN SOME SLEET.                     
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONING TO MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE CONUS BY             
LATE IN THE WEEK...THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IS NOT OVERLY               
IMPRESSIVE IN THE WAKE OF THURSDAYS SYSTEM. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS            
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S THURS AND FRI WHICH STILL LOOKS                     
REASONABLE. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO MONITOR IS A WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN                
STREAM FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. THE GFS             
HAS BEEN TRENDING MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS WAVE...AS WELL AS WITH               
MID LEVEL FGEN OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS MORE AMPLIFIED               
SOLUTION SOLUTION WOULD BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE STATE ON SATURDAY             
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE METRO             
DETROIT AREA AND POINTS SOUTH. THE 12Z ECMWF ALONG WITH SEVERAL GFS             
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP THE BULK OF QPF SOUTH OF THE STATE. SO AT THIS            
TIME A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 1/3RD OF THE CWA SEEMS                
REASONABLE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST NORTH OF LAKE HURON               
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SENDING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE            
LAKE AROUND 00Z. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LAKES             
TUES AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS ONLY SHOW LIMITED MIXING HEIGHTS                
OVER LAKE HURON. THE SHALLOW INSTABILITY HOWEVER SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO            
PROVIDE FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS TUES AFTERNOON. MIXING                 
HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE OVER THE LAKES WED NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE               
SURFACE FRONT. THE GRADIENT WILL HOWEVER BEGIN TO WEAKEN...THUS WIND            
GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE              
HURON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY WED                          
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING THE WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 144 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2008                            
AVIATION...                                                                     
OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AT KDET/KDTW AND               
A TEMPORARY MVFR DECK AT KFNT...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED                
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LIGHT AND                      
VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS WILL SLOWLY TREND WESTERLY THIS EVENING AS               
RETURN FLOW ARRIVES.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...                                                                   
     BRISK WIND ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS           
     FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 8 PM               
     TUESDAY.                                                                   
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...CB                                                                 
LONG TERM....SC                                                                 
MARINE.......SC                                                                 
AVIATION.....CB                                                                 
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</pre> mi