AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
556 AM EST SUN DEC 16 2007                                                      
...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TODAY...                                        
...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT...                                        
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
VERY BUSY SHIFT. SAT LATE INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS...NEGATIVELY TILTED              
TROUGH DIGGING EWD FROM LWR MISS VALLEY OH/TENN VALLEYS AIDED                   
STRONG INFLUX OF OLGA GENERATED TROPICAL PLUME INTO CWA. THIS PUSHED            
SQUALL AND COLD FRONT RAPIDLY EWD. WITH LOW LEVEL REMNANT OF OLGA               
ACCELERATING NEWD AND BECOMING ABSORBED INTO STRENGTHENING SW                   
STEERING FLOW. THIS AGGRAVATES THE THREAT OF ECHO TRAINING AS NOTED             
ON AREA RADARS. ADD DEW POINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES ...STRONG WARM FRONT             
ACROSS SE GA SERVING AS FOCUS FOR LIFT AND VERY GOOD DEEP LYR SHEAR             
COMBINED TO GENERATE SEVERAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES OVER            
CWA SAT EVENING INTO LATE NIGHT ESPECIALLY ALONG INTERSECTION OF                
ADVANCING SQUALL/WARM FRONT. THIS ACCOUNTED FOR TORNADO AND FLASH               
FLOOD WATCH. AT 2 AM EST...SQUALL ACROSS DIXIE AND FRONT STARTING TO            
CATCH UP NOW CROSSING APALACHICOLA AND WILL BARRELING THRU REST OF              
CWA THRU SUNRISE. CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVING FROM W-E AND TORNADO             
WATCH AND MOST OF FLOOD WATCH EXPIRED B4 3 AM EST.                              
AT UPPER LEVELS                                                                 
PROGRESSIVE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THRU SHORT TERM. NEXT              
UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE PACIFIC NW LATER TODAY. THIS             
WILL WORK ON UPPER TROUGH/LOW (RESPONSIBLE FOR SATURDAY STORMS) TO              
TRANSLATE NEWD FROM THE OH VALLEY THIS MORNING INTO NEW ENGLAND AND             
SRN QUEBEC BY MONDAY MORNING. RESULT IS NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MOST             
OF CONUS THRU EARLY WORK WEEK.                                                  
AT LOWER LEVELS                                                                 
DEEP LOW ASSOCD WITH ABOVE TROUGH OVER THE OH VALLEY THIS MORNING               
EXPECTED WEAKEN OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTN AS SECONDARY COASTAL             
LOW SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPENING AS IT MOVES UP ATLC COAST NEWD THROUGH              
SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD                  
QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING...AND THROUGH             
THE FL PENINSULA TO KEY WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON. IN WAKE OF COLD                 
FRONT...COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER LOUISIANA COAST WILL BUILD EAST                 
AND REACH EASTERN MISSISSIPPI BY DAYBREAK TODAY...WITH RIDGE AXIS               
EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. LOCALLY THIS TRANSLATES            
TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WITH MUCH COLDER AND                
DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                       
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY).                                          
TODAY...SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL LINGER UNTIL AROUND 9-10 AM EST            
SE BIG BEND. OTHERWISE...BLUSTERY APTLY DESCRIBES THE DAY.                      
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT LEAST DEGREES COLDER THAN YESTERDAY AND 25              
TO 30 DEGREES COLDER COMPARED TO THOSE EXPERIENCED LAST WEEK.                   
PREFERRED A WEIGHTED BLEND TOWARD THE MAV GUIDANCE NUMBERS HERE AS              
THE MET NUMBERS SEEM JUST A LITTLE TOO COLD. ALSO...EXPECT SUSTAINED            
WINDS AND/OR FREQUENT GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH SO LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN               
EFFECT.                                                                         
TONIGHT...WITH HIGH BUILDING EAST...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL              
BE CONTINUING AND THE FACT THAT SOME LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE                  
THROUGH THE NIGHT ISN`T SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES                 
ABOVE FREEZING. WINDS WILL STAY UP ENOUGH TO LIKELY PREVENT FROST. A            
FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA AND WILL LIKELY               
BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING BY DAY SHIFT. WINDS WILL DECREASE JUST                 
ENOUGH TO PREVENT NEED FOR A WIND CHILL ADVISORY.                               
MONDAY...WINDS WILL FINALLY ABATE...COLD AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE.              
DESPITE AMPLE SUNSHINE...LOW SUN ANGLE WILL ONLY SUPPORT MAX                    
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S GIVING US OUR SECOND CONSECUTIVE DAY                    
WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.                                                 
MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST                     
AFFORDING THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. LATEST MAV                  
GUIDANCE IS GOING FOR THE MID 20S AREA WIDE...BUT THE MET IS A                  
LITTLE WARMER. AT THIS POINT GIVEN THAT THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SET              
UP A LITTLE NORTH OF THE REGION CONDITIONS AREN`T ALL THAT FAVORABLE            
FOR A HARD FREEZE...BUT GIVEN HOW COLD AND DRY THIS AIRMASS                     
IS...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR 25 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS. ONE                 
POTENTIAL PROBLEM FOR VERY COLD TEMPERATURES COULD BE SOME CIRRUS               
MOVING OVERHEAD TOWARD DAYBREAK.                                                
TUESDAY...ANOTHER DRY DAY. WITH HIGH MOVING EWD AND SURFACE RIDGE               
OFFSHORE BUILDING SWWD ACROSS CWA...LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO ELY                 
ALLOWING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO ADVECT IN. MINS REBOUND TO                  
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING INLAND LOCATIONS.                                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY.                                                  
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT                   
FURTHER ENE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND WEDGE DOWN THE                        
APPALACHIANS WHILE COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS JUST OFFSHORE. THIS WILL             
ALLOW THE WINDS TO VEER AROUND TO A MORE EAST-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION               
OUT AHEAD OF ANOTHER DEVELOPING SYSTEM WEST OF THE REGION. MORNING              
LOWS WILL AGAIN DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS INLAND                    
LOCATIONS WITH THE AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE LOW/MID 60S.                    
GFS/ECMWF SHOW WEAK                                                             
FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME BEGINNING THURSDAY                       
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT. BEYOND THE PERIOD AND INTO THE                    
WEEKEND...THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM THAT LOOKS TO               
PUSH EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SOMETIME AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT               
INTO SUNDAY.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...IN WAKE OF SQUALL LINE AND COLD FRONT...GUSTY SHIFTING              
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE               
FRONT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY             
IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND BEYOND.              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NEW NAM/RUC GUIDANCE SHOWS SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS TODAY APPROACHING            
30 KTS AND 900MB WINDS 35-40KTS. WITH STRONG COLD AIR                           
ADVECTION...GOOD MIXING DOWN EXPECTED SO SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS             
A BETTER THAN AVERAGE BET...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS A VERY GOOD WAGER.            
SO GALE FORCE WARNING ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS UNTIL 11 AM EST TODAY.              
SCA REMAINS UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX            
ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS AND DROP BELOW ALL            
HEADLINE CRITERIA ON TUESDAY.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...WITH A DRY AIRMASS DESCENDING OVER THE REGION AND               
WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED...RED FLAG WARNING LOOKS GOOD FLORIDA FOR             
THIS AFTERNOON. WON`T BE DRY ENOUGH ELSEWHERE YET FOR ANY                       
HEADLINES. BY MONDAY...THE AIRMASS DRIES OUT CONSIDERABLY WITH                  
DEWPOINTS DROPPING OFF INTO THE TEENS. WILL THEREFORE ISSUE A FIRE              
WEATHER WATCH FOR ALL OF THE CWA WITH RH VALUES LIKELY DROPPING OFF             
INTO THE TEENS.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  56  27  57  25 /  05   0   0   0                                   
PANAMA CITY  56  33  58  34 /   0   0   0   0                                   
DOTHAN       53  28  56  28 /   0   0   0   0                                   
ALBANY       53  28  58  24 /   0   0   0   0                                   
VALDOSTA     56  28  55  28 /  10   0   0   0                                   
CROSS CITY 63 27 58 25/        10 0 0 0                                         
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON.                
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.              
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON.                  
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON.                
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY TONIGHT THRU MONDAY MORNING.                 
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON                                        
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM EST /12 PM CST/ TO 6 PM EST /5 PM               
     CST/ TODAY ALL COUNTIES.                                                   
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON.                
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING               
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON.                                       
GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING ALL WATERS.                      
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT AFTER 11 AM THIS MORNING                    
     FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BLOCK/GIBBS                                                                     
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  56  27  57  25  61 /  10   0   0   0  10                           
PANAMA CITY  56  33  58  34  60 /   0   0   0   0  10                           
DOTHAN       53  28  56  28  60 /   0   0   0   0  10                           
ALBANY       53  28  58  24  60 /   0   0   0   0  10                           
VALDOSTA     56  28  55  28  60 /  10   0   0   0  10                           
CROSS CITY   63  27  58  25  64 /  10   0   0   0  10                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE              
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...HENRY...HOUSTON.                 
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE                   
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...HENRY...HOUSTON.                 
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 5 PM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING           
     ZONES: COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...HENRY...HOUSTON.                           
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE              
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAKER...BEN HILL...BERRIEN...BROOKS...                    
     CALHOUN...CLAY...COLQUITT...COOK...DECATUR...DOUGHERTY...                  
     EARLY...GRADY...IRWIN...LANIER...LEE...LOWNDES...MILLER...                 
     MITCHELL...QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...SEMINOLE...TERRELL...                      
     THOMAS...TIFT...TURNER...WORTH.                                            
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE                   
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAKER...BEN HILL...BERRIEN...BROOKS...                    
     CALHOUN...CLAY...COLQUITT...COOK...DECATUR...DOUGHERTY...                  
     EARLY...GRADY...IRWIN...LANIER...LEE...LOWNDES...MILLER...                 
     MITCHELL...QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...SEMINOLE...TERRELL...                      
     THOMAS...TIFT...TURNER...WORTH.                                            
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 12 PM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING           
     ZONES: BAKER...BEN HILL...BERRIEN...BROOKS...CALHOUN...                    
     CLAY...COLQUITT...COOK...DECATUR...DOUGHERTY...EARLY...                    
     GRADY...IRWIN...LANIER...LEE...LOWNDES...MILLER...                         
     MITCHELL...QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...SEMINOLE...TERRELL...                      
     THOMAS...TIFT...TURNER...WORTH.                                            
FL...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE              
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...COASTAL WALTON...DIXIE...                 
     FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...                      
     JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY...                        
     MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.                                   
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST /4 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR            
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...COASTAL WALTON...                     
     DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...INLAND                        
     WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY...               
     MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.                                   
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 12 PM EST /11 AM CST/ TO 6 PM EST /5 PM              
     CST/ MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...                      
     DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...INLAND                        
     WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY...               
     MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.                                   
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ TO 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/           
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...                   
     DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...INLAND                        
     WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY...               
     MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.                                   
GMZ750...NONE.                                                                  
GMZ755...NONE.                                                                  
GMZ770...NONE.                                                                  
GMZ775...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BLOCK/GIBBS                                                                     
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
405 AM EST SUN DEC 16 2007                                                      
...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 739 HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ALL OF THE                   
FLORIDA EASTERN BIG BEND...                                                     
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR DIXIE AND LAFAYETTE                 
COUNTIES...                                                                     
...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TODAY...                                        
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
VERY BUSY SHIFT. SAT LATE INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS...NEGATIVELY TILTED              
TROUGH DIGGING EWD FROM LWR MISS VALLEY OH/TENN VALLEYS AIDED                   
STRONG INFLUX OF OLGA GENERATED TROPICAL PLUME INTO CWA. THIS PUSHED            
SQUALL AND COLD FRONT RAPIDLY EWD. WITH LOW LEVEL REMNANT OF OLGA               
ACCELERATING NEWD AND BECOMING ABSORBED INTO STRENGTHENING SW                   
STEERING FLOW. THIS AGGRAVATES THE THREAT OF ECHO TRAINING AS NOTED             
ON AREA RADARS. ADD DEW POINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES ...STRONG WARM FRONT             
ACROSS SE GA SERVING AS FOCUS FOR LIFT AND VERY GOOD DEEP LYR SHEAR             
COMBINED TO GENERATE SEVERAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES OVER            
CWA SAT EVENING INTO LATE NIGHT ESPECIALLY ALONG INTERSECTION OF                
ADVANCING SQUALL/WARM FRONT. THIS ACCOUNTED FOR TORNADO AND FLASH               
FLOOD WATCH. AT 2 AM EST...SQUALL ACROSS DIXIE AND FRONT STARTING TO            
CATCH UP NOW CROSSING APALACHICOLA AND WILL BARRELING THRU REST OF              
CWA THRU SUNRISE. CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVING FROM W-E AND TORNADO             
WATCH AND MOST OF FLOOD WATCH EXPIRED B4 3 AM EST.                              
AT UPPER LEVELS                                                                 
PROGRESSIVE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THRU SHORT TERM. NEXT              
UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE PACIFIC NW LATER TODAY. THIS             
WILL WORK ON UPPER TROUGH/LOW (RESPONSIBLE FOR SATURDAY STORMS) TO              
TRANSLATE NEWD FROM THE OH VALLEY THIS MORNING INTO NEW ENGLAND AND             
SRN QUEBEC BY MONDAY MORNING. RESULT IS NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MOST             
OF CONUS THRU EARLY WORK WEEK.                                                  
AT LOWER LEVELS                                                                 
DEEP LOW ASSOCD WITH ABOVE TROUGH OVER THE OH VALLEY THIS MORNING               
EXPECTED WEAKEN OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTN AS SECONDARY COASTAL             
LOW SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPENING AS IT MOVES UP ATLC COAST NEWD THROUGH              
SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD                  
QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING...AND THROUGH             
THE FL PENINSULA TO KEY WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON. IN WAKE OF COLD                 
FRONT...COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER LOUISIANA COAST WILL BUILD EAST                 
AND REACH EASTERN MISSISSIPPI BY DAYBREAK TODAY...WITH RIDGE AXIS               
EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. LOCALLY THIS TRANSLATES            
TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WITH MUCH COLDER AND                
DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                       
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY).                                          
TODAY...SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL LINGER UNTIL AROUND 9-10 AM EST            
SE BIG BEND. OTHERWISE...BLUSTERY APTLY DESCRIBES THE DAY.                      
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT LEAST DEGREES COLDER THAN YESTERDAY AND 25              
TO 30 DEGREES COLDER COMPARED TO THOSE EXPERIENCED LAST WEEK.                   
PREFERRED A WEIGHTED BLEND TOWARD THE MAV GUIDANCE NUMBERS HERE AS              
THE MET NUMBERS SEEM JUST A LITTLE TOO COLD. ALSO...EXPECT SUSTAINED            
WINDS AND/OR FREQUENT GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH SO LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN               
EFFECT.                                                                         
TONIGHT...WITH HIGH BUILDING EAST...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL              
BE CONTINUING AND THE FACT THAT SOME LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE                  
THROUGH THE NIGHT ISN`T SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES                 
ABOVE FREEZING. WINDS WILL STAY UP ENOUGH TO LIKELY PREVENT FROST. A            
FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA AND WILL LIKELY               
BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING BY DAY SHIFT. WINDS WILL DECREASE JUST                 
ENOUGH TO PREVENT NEED FOR A WIND CHILL ADVISORY.                               
MONDAY...WINDS WILL FINALLY ABATE...COLD AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE.              
DESPITE AMPLE SUNSHINE...LOW SUN ANGLE WILL ONLY SUPPORT MAX                    
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S GIVING US OUR SECOND CONSECUTIVE DAY                    
WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.                                                 
MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST                     
AFFORDING THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. LATEST MAV                  
GUIDANCE IS GOING FOR THE MID 20S AREA WIDE...BUT THE MET IS A                  
LITTLE WARMER. AT THIS POINT GIVEN THAT THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SET              
UP A LITTLE NORTH OF THE REGION CONDITIONS AREN`T ALL THAT FAVORABLE            
FOR A HARD FREEZE...BUT GIVEN HOW COLD AND DRY THIS AIRMASS                     
IS...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR 25 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS. ONE                 
POTENTIAL PROBLEM FOR VERY COLD TEMPERATURES COULD BE SOME CIRRUS               
MOVING OVERHEAD TOWARD DAYBREAK.                                                
TUESDAY...ANOTHER DRY DAY. WITH HIGH MOVING EWD AND SURFACE RIDGE               
OFFSHORE BUILDING SWWD ACROSS CWA...LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO ELY                 
ALLOWING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO ADVECT IN. MINS REBOUND TO                  
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING INLAND LOCATIONS.                                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY.                                                  
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT                   
FURTHER ENE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND WEDGE DOWN THE                        
APPALACHIANS WHILE COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS JUST OFFSHORE. THIS WILL             
ALLOW THE WINDS TO VEER AROUND TO A MORE EAST-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION               
OUT AHEAD OF ANOTHER DEVELOPING SYSTEM WEST OF THE REGION. MORNING              
LOWS WILL AGAIN DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS INLAND                    
LOCATIONS WITH THE AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE LOW/MID 60S.                    
GFS/ECMWF SHOW WEAK                                                             
FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME BEGINNING THURSDAY                       
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT. BEYOND THE PERIOD AND INTO THE                    
WEEKEND...THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM THAT LOOKS TO               
PUSH EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SOMETIME AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT               
INTO SUNDAY.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...IN WAKE OF SQUALL LINE AND COLD FRONT...GUSTY SHIFTING              
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE               
FRONT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY             
IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND BEYOND.              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NEW NAM/RUC GUIDANCE SHOWS SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS TODAY APPROACHING            
30 KTS AND 900MB WINDS 35-40KTS. WITH STRONG COLD AIR                           
ADVECTION...GOOD MIXING DOWN EXPECTED SO SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS             
A BETTER THAN AVERAGE BET...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS A VERY GOOD WAGER.            
SO GALE FORCE WARNING ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS UNTIL 11 AM EST TODAY.              
SCA REMAINS UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX            
ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS AND DROP BELOW ALL            
HEADLINE CRITERIA ON TUESDAY.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...WITH A DRY AIRMASS DESCENDING OVER THE REGION AND               
WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED...RED FLAG WARNING LOOKS GOOD FLORIDA FOR             
THIS AFTERNOON. WON`T BE DRY ENOUGH ELSEWHERE YET FOR ANY                       
HEADLINES. BY MONDAY...THE AIRMASS DRIES OUT CONSIDERABLY WITH                  
DEWPOINTS DROPPING OFF INTO THE TEENS. WILL THEREFORE ISSUE A FIRE              
WEATHER WATCH FOR ALL OF THE CWA WITH RH VALUES LIKELY DROPPING OFF             
INTO THE TEENS.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  56  27  57  25 /  05   0   0   0                                   
PANAMA CITY  56  33  58  34 /   0   0   0   0                                   
DOTHAN       53  28  56  28 /   0   0   0   0                                   
ALBANY       53  28  58  24 /   0   0   0   0                                   
VALDOSTA     56  28  55  28 /  10   0   0   0                                   
CROSS CITY   63  27  58  25 /  20   0   0   0                                   
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON.                
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY                       
MORNING.                                                                        
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH                             
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON.                
    FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.               
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON                                        
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM EST /12 PM CST/ TO 6 PM EST /5 PM               
     CST/ TODAY ALL COUNTIES.                                                   
      LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS                          
      AFTERNOON.                                                                
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR                                            
    TAYLOR AND DIXIE COUNTIES UNTIL 6 AM EST  THIS MORNING.                     
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING               
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON.                                       
GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING ALL WATERS.                      
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT AFTER 11 AM THIS MORNING FOR                
     ALL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BLOCK/GIBBS                                                                     
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
1228 PM EST SUN DEC 16 2007                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE                      
THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA                 
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT                    
WEEKEND.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
PRIMARY COLD FRONT MOVED OFF THE COAST BETWEEN 13 AND                           
1330Z...EASILY VISIBLE ON WSR-88D AS A FINE-LINE AND ALSO IN SFC                
WIND DIRECTIONS. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS OF THE MORNING OCCURRED                   
BRIEFLY WITH THIS BOUNDARY...WITH SPEEDS SETTLING DOWN INTO THE                 
15-25 KT RANGE. PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWFA.                 
BACK EDGE OF THE FRONTAL CLOUD BAND CURRENTLY BISECTS THE CWFA                  
FROM N TO S AND MOST COASTAL AREAS SHOULD BE SCATTERING OUT BY                  
NOON. A LARGE EXPANSE OF WRAP-AROUND STRATOCUMULUS OVERCAST IS                  
PROGRESSING THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. ALTHOUGH THE                  
LEADING EDGE OF THIS CLOUDINESS IS BEGINNING TO BREAK UP...TRENDS               
AND MODEL TIME HEIGHTS INDICATE CLOUDS COULD ENCROACH ON OUR SW                 
GEORGIA ZONES AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.                                       
MAX TEMP FORECAST FOR TODAY IS DIFFICULT SINCE THERE ARE SEVERAL                
VARIABLES IN QUESTION. THE PREDOMINANT INFLUENCE WILL BE FROM                   
INCREASING COLD ADVECTION FROM STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN                 
FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEER TO WNW AND NW DURING                
THE DAY...RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE DOWNSLOPE COMPRESSIONAL                     
PATTERN. SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING IS LIKELY TO BEGIN DURING THE                   
AFTERNOON. THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IS ALSO DIFFICULT TO PREDICT                  
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE WRAP-AROUND CLOUDINESS. UPDATED                  
TODAY/S TEMPS VIA A SLIGHTLY WARMER TREND THAN THE HOURLY RUC AND               
NAM-12 PROGS. TEMPS COULD LEVEL OFF DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR              
TWO TO THREE HOURS DURING THE STRONGEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW BEFORE COLD              
ADVECTION TAKES OVER.                                                           
WILL KEEP WIND ADVISORY IN PLACE TODAY. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE INTO              
THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS COLD ADVECTION INCREASES AND MIXING HEIGHT               
INCREASES BY 1-2000 FT.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...                          
MAIN ISSUE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES THAT                   
WILL ADVECT TOWARD THE COAST WITHIN WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE                   
FLOW. 00Z GUIDANCE HAS ACTUALLY RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR               
TWO...WHICH HAS LOWERED CONFIDENCE THAT THE COASTAL GEORGIA                     
COUNTIES MAY REACH FREEZE WARNING CRITERIA. HAVE THUS NOT UPGRADED              
TO A FREEZE WARNING FOR THESE LOCATIONS AND INSTEAD MAINTAINED THE              
FREEZE WATCH. SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS               
TO DETERMINE WHETHER THE WATCH SHOULD BE UPGRADED OR DROPPED. AT                
THIS POINT HAVE INDICATED LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MID                 
20S FAR INLAND TO THE LOWER 30S NEAR THE COAST.                                 
MONDAY WILL BE A CLEAR AND CHILLY DAY...AS THE COLD AIR MASS REMAINS            
OVER THE REGION AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD                    
EASTWARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO MID 50S                
DESPITE FULL SUNSHINE...SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.                   
LAKE WINDS...WINDS OVER LAKE MOULTRIE WILL REMAIN WITHIN ADVISORY               
CRITERIA OVERNIGHT...THEN DIMINISH BELOW CRITERIA BY MONDAY MORNING.            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                           
MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER                          
DECOUPLING...SUPPORTING EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ALLOWING              
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 20S AT MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE               
COAST. AT THE COAST...12Z NAM/GFS GUIDANCE DIFFERS REGARDING THE                
POSITION OF THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND RESULTING WIND                   
DIRECTION. SPECIFICALLY...THE 12Z NAM SUGGESTS THAT THE LAND                    
BREEZE WILL DOMINATE...PRODUCING A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE               
ENTIRE COASTLINE AND PUSHING COLD AIR RIGHT TO THE COASTAL                      
ISLANDS/BEACHES. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 12Z GFS DEVELOPS A WEAK                
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN                 
SLIGHTLY ONSHORE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE DIFFERENCES IN                  
THESE SOLUTIONS...WHICH ARE BOTH REASONABLE...REMAIN SUBTLE BUT                 
TRANSLATES TO POSSIBLE LOW TEMPERATURE RANGE OF 10-15F ALONG THE                
IMMEDIATE COAST...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST. THIS                      
FORECAST WILL REPRESENT A COMPROMISE...HOLDING FREEZING                         
TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT PUSHING                        
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND FREEZING JUST INLAND.                                    
TUESDAY...AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND NE            
OF THE REGION...INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO              
RECOVER TO CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS.                                              
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...UNDERCUT 12Z GFS MOS POPS...LEAVING RAIN               
FREE FORECASTS...AS MODEL APPEARS OVERDONE WITH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE              
PROVIDED BY ONSHORE FLOW. ALSO...AS EXPECTED...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE            
HAS ALTERED THE LATE WEEK SCENARIO. SPECIFICALLY...INSTEAD OF A WELL            
DEVELOPED LOW PRESSURE PUSHING THROUGH THE SE...GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED            
FARTHER NORTH WITH LOW PRESSURE/ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT THURSDAY...AND            
SUGGESTS A WEAKENING COLD FROPA FRIDAY. CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS            
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FROPA...AND BUMPED                     
TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THEN...INDICATED                 
LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...TO START               
THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...CONFIDENCE IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY FORECAST               
REMAINS QUITE LOW.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MAIN CONCERN                 
IS THE GUSTY WINDS THAT WILL PERSIST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS                 
AFTERNOON. AFTER SUNSET...WINDS WILL NOT DECOUPLE BUT WILL                      
DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. THEREFORE...WIND SHEAR WILL BE AN                  
ISSUE TONIGHT AT BOTH TAF SITES. THUS HAVE INTRODUCED 30 KT WIND                
SHEAR AROUND 0230Z GIVING THE WINDS A LITTLE TIME TO DECREASE.                  
EXPECT IT TO UNTIL SUNRISE WHEN THE MIXING WILL COMMENCE.                       
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
GALE WARNING FOR ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH AT LEAST TODAY. SPEEDS                
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS COLD ADVECTION MIXES                     
INCREASINGLY WELL OVER THE SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS. IN THE                       
HARBOR...THE GALE POTENTIAL EXISTS MAINLY IN GUSTS.                             
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY MONDAY MORNING IN THE               
NEARSHORE WATERS AND ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS BY MIDDAY MONDAY.               
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE MARINE CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE                 
WEEK. COASTAL TROUGHING ON THE SOUTHERN RIM OF THE SURFACE RIDGE                
MAY ENHANCE WINDS/SEAS A BIT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF ANOTHER                
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...S WINDS MAY                       
INCREASE. HOWEVER...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY                  
THRESHOLDS MONDAY PM THROUGH FRIDAY.                                            
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
EXPECT CRITICAL WINDS TODAY...BUT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY                     
VALUES SHOULD HOLD ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES. CRITICAL RELATIVE                     
HUMIDITY APPEARS LIKELY AT MANY LOCATIONS ON MONDAY...BUT WINDS                 
WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. TUESDAY...NEAR CRITICAL                  
RELATIVE HUMIDITY APPEARS LIKELY INLAND.                                        
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ087-088-                  
     099>101-114>119-137>141.                                                   
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR                  
     GAZ117-119-139-141.                                                        
SC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ040-042>045-              
     047>051.                                                                   
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ330-352-354.         
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ350.                       
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ374.                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JRL/REB                                                                         
</pre> ga                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
1253 PM EST SAT DEC 15 2007                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE DOWN THE EAST COAST                
TODAY WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. A LOW PRESSURE                  
SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE A                
STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUN MORNING. COOL HIGH              
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION SUN THROUGH MON...THEN SHIFT                
INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC TUE AND WED. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL                    
AFFECT THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.                                               
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
HIGH PRES WEDGE HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING WITH                   
WINDS NOW SOLIDLY NE OR E ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF OUR CWFA. DENSE                
FOG BRIEFLY DEVELOPED AT CHS AROUND 14Z WHEN THE SRN EDGE OF THE                
FRONT MOVED S INTO THE TRI-COUNTY AREA. REGIONAL WEB CAMS ALSO                  
SHOWED A BRIEF DROP IN VSBY...ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED BRIDGES.                   
ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS HAVE SINCE IMPROVED AT THE SFC...THE BOUNDARY               
IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH FARTHER SE TODAY...THUS WE WILL                    
LIKELY BE OSCILLATING BETWEEN FAIRLY DENSE FOG AND ONLY LIGHT                   
MIST. LAST TWO HRS OF VIS SATELLITE SHOW CLOUD COVER HAS FINALLY                
GONE OVERCAST OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE                     
INCREASE IN LOW OVERCAST CLOUD COVER OCCURRED 4-6 HRS LATER THAN                
THE MODEL CONSENSUS FROM YESTERDAY/S 12Z RUNS. REGIONAL RADAR                   
SHOWS SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP NOW DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL AND                    
SOUTHERN GA AS WELL AS ALONG THE SOUTH GA COAST LINE.                           
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. EVEN THE NEW 12Z              
NAM HAD A POOR INITIALIZATION OF THE COASTAL TROUGH. IT SHOWS ONLY              
A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE SC/GA COAST WHILE MSAS AND SFC                 
OBS SHOW A MUCH STRONGER INFLECTION /TEMP GRAD OF 11C BETWEEN CHS               
AND BUOY 41004/. HOWEVER...THE RUC AND THE NAM DO SEEM TO BETTER                
REFLECT THE PROGRESS OF PRECIP DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON               
WITH A MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE TACK. OUR BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD                
PRECIP APPEARS TO BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE                 
COASTAL TROUGH IS STRONGEST AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS MAXIMIZED.                 
SPC STILL INCLUDES MOST OF OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY.                 
ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY MAY BE COMPROMISED BY THE HEAVY CLOUD                      
COVER...THERE WILL BE STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.              
HAVE THUS MAINTAINED THE ONGOING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY                
IN THE SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES AND OVER THE WATERS WHERE ANY                      
INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY.                  
MADE EARLY AFTERNOON TWEAKS TO TEMPS AND WINDS.                                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...                         
AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD AROUND 00Z TONIGHT...THERE                 
MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE PRECIP WITHIN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE                
FORECAST AREA AS THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING                 
FROM THE WEST. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR SUNDAY MORNING...WITH                 
DRYING AND CLEARING OCCURRING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG COLD                  
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS AND                 
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO BE                
SUPPRESSED IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.                                       
LAKE WINDS...HAVE ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR LAKE MOULTRIE                 
BEGINNING 10Z ON SUNDAY...SINCE STRONG COLD ADVECTION OVER THE                  
RELATIVELY WARMER LAKE WATERS WILL ALLOW MIXING TO TAP INTO A 35                
TO 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                         
THE MAIN FCST CONCERN DURING THE LONG TERM WILL BE LOW TEMPS FOR                
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. DURING THIS TIME WE WILL BE LOOKING              
AT OUR COLDEST WX SINCE MID NOVEMBER...AND SOME LOCATIONS WILL                  
EVEN EXPERIENCE THEIR COLDEST WX OF THE SEASON.                                 
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE PURELY A COLD AIR ADVECTION NIGHT...WITH LOWS              
IN THE 20S AND 30S ALL AREAS BY MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE                   
CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE THAT COASTAL SE GA WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING              
AND THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH WIND FOR ANY FROST. THUS THE SEASONAL                
FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM WILL CONTINUE FOR THESE AREAS.                             
MONDAY NIGHT IS A BETTER RADIATION NIGHT ACROSS INLAND                          
LOCATIONS...BUT THE SECOND NIGHT IS OFTEN NOT AS COLD ALONG COASTAL             
AREAS DURING A COLD WX OUTBREAK. THIS AGAIN LOOKS TO BE THE CASE AS             
COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS ENDED AND THERE IS EVEN A SLIGHT ONSHORE                 
COMPONENT TO THE WIND OFF THE SURFACE. STILL WE CAN EXPECT LOWS                 
AGAIN IN THE 20S AND 30S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE...WITH FROST INLAND.             
WILL KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON FROST POTENTIAL OVER COASTAL SE GA TO SEE            
IF ENOUGH OCCURS TO END THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM FOR THE REST OF THE            
WINTER SEASON.                                                                  
NOT MUCH HAPPENING DURING MID WEEK AS HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA                   
TUESDAY WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLC WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A               
GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS ONSHORE FETCH RETURNS...BUT THIS WILL                  
RESULT IN ONLY SOME STRATOCUMULUS OR CUMULUS HUMILIS RETURNING TO               
THE FCST AREA...AND NOT ANY RAIN.                                               
NEXT COLD FRONT TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT WITH                
ZONAL FLOW THE RAIN CHANCES LOOK SLIM. WILL PROBABLY LOWER OR REMOVE            
POPS FROM THE FCST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL HAVE WARMED BACK             
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THAT TIME.                                                  
LAKE WINDS EXTENDED...CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION AND GEOSTROPHIC              
WINDS OF 30 KT OR HIGHER WILL RESULT IN THE CONTINUATION OF THE LAKE            
WIND ADVISORY FOR LAKE MOULTRIE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING.                
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE OVER THE LAKE BY LATE                         
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                    
IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT CHS THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG                
THE WEDGE BOUNDARY. RAIN HAS BEEN SLOW TO MATERIALIZE AS FAR N AS               
CHS TERMINAL BUT LIGHT RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA PRETTY SOON.               
THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT.                 
WIND SHEAR STILL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH THE STRONG LLVL JET                    
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW. CONDITIONS WILL                  
RAPIDLY IMPROVE BY EARLY TO MID SUN MORNING.                                    
CIGS HAVE ONLY RECENTLY DROPPED TO MVFR AT SAV BUT WILL REMAIN                  
THERE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY DROP TO IFR.                 
SIMILAR TO CHS...HEAVIEST PRECIP EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT WITH THE                 
FROPA. ALSO INCLUDED WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT.                                      
GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMS DURING THE DAY SUN WITH STRONG               
COLD ADVECTION AND LLVL JET BEHIND THE FRONT.                                   
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
COASTAL TROUGH HAS TIGHTENED CONSIDERABLY ALONG THE SC COAST NEAR               
CHARLESTON HARBOR. WINDS IN THE HARBOR HAVE BEEN BLOWING 15-20 KT               
FOR TWO HRS NOW AND SIMILAR SPEEDS SHOWING UP WITHIN 10 NM OF THE               
COAST PER BUOY OBS. ISSUING QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE WINDS TO                   
15-20 KT IN THE HARBOR AND SC NEARSHORE.                                        
DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL               
JET INTENSIFIES TO 45 TO 50 KT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT                     
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HAVE MAINTAINED ONGOING SMALL CRAFT                  
ADVISORIES BEGINNING TONIGHT FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS AND THE                   
CHARLESTON HARBOR...AS SOUTHERLY WINDS VEER TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND                
STEADILY INCREASE IN SPEED. COLD ADVECTION INITIATING BEHIND THE                
FRONT WILL ALLOW OFFSHORE WINDS TO FURTHER SURGE UNDER ENHANCED                 
MIXING. THUS HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS               
BEGINNING 10Z SUNDAY MORNING FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS. THE COMBINATION              
OF A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING               
IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AS WELL AS THE LINGERING COLD AIR MASS OVER               
THE WATERS...WILL ALLOW STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.                
SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG WINDS. WAVE HEIGHTS              
OF 5 TO 7 FT IN THE NEARSHORE SC WATERS AND 7 TO 9 FT IN THE                    
OFFSHORE GA MARINE ZONES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.                   
WILL KEEP HEADLINES GOING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT                
AS GEOSTROPHIC WINDS ARE STILL 30 KT OR HIGHER AND COLD AIR                     
ADVECTION PERSISTS. DESPITE THE OFFSHORE FETCH...THE WNA GUIDANCE               
LOOKS A LITTLE UNDERDONE. LOCAL NOMOGRAM AND WAVE FCST TOOL ON                  
AWIPS SUPPORTS SEAS ABOUT A FOOT OR TWO HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE AND                
WILL FOLLOW.                                                                    
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE MONDAY AS PRES GRADIENT RELAXES BY               
NIGHTFALL...AND A FURTHER IMPROVEMENT WILL DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND             
TUESDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER E AND INTO THE AREA. SEAS WILL BE            
SLOWER THAN WINDS IN COMING DOWN...AND WILL STILL HAVE SOME 6 OR 8              
FT SEAS OVER THE OUTER GA WATERS INTO MONDAY.                                   
THE BEST MARINE CONDITIONS OF THIS FCST PERIOD WILL BE TUESDAY AND              
WEDNESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRES IS FOUND N AND NE OF THE COASTAL WATERS             
ALLOWING FOR LIGHT NE-E WINDS AND SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 3 OR 4 FT.                
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
EXPECT CRITICAL/NEAR CRITICAL WINDS AFTER THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS                 
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT IT APPEAR THAT SUNDAY                  
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD REMAIN AT LEAST 10 PERCENT              
ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES. FOR MONDAY...CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY                  
APPEARS LIKELY AT MOST INLAND LOCATIONS...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN                 
BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. CRITICAL OR NEAR CRITICAL RH VALUES                  
ARE EXPECTED BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTN. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE              
ON A CONTINUED DOWNWARDS TREND MONDAY WITH A FURTHER DECREASE                   
TUESDAY.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR                 
     SCZ045.                                                                    
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST MONDAY         
     FOR AMZ330-350-352-354.                                                    
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR AMZ374.            
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY             
     FOR AMZ374.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JRL                                                                             
</pre> ga                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1034 AM CST SUN DEC 16 2007                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISSUED 1022 AM CST SUN DEC 16 2007                                              
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS               
MORNING...LEAVING BEHIND GUSTY WINDS IN ITS WAKE AS THE PRESSURE                
GRADIENT IS VERY SLOW TO RELAX. A TEMPORARY CLEARING OF THE CLOUDS              
THIS MORNING IS GIVING WAY TO STRATUS THAT IS MOVING IN FROM THE                
NW. TEMPERATURES ARE SLOW TO RISE...AND THAT SLOW RISE TREND                    
SHOULD CONTINUE ONCE THE CLOUD COVER MOVES IN. MORE DRY AIR                     
IMMEDIATELY TO THE WEST...AND ABOVE THE CLOUDS THEMSELVES SHOULD                
HELP TO ERODE THE BLANKET OF STRATUS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WILL              
BE UPDATING THE FORECAST FOR HOURLY TEMPS...CLOUDS...AND TO REMOVE              
MORNING WORDING.                                                                
HJS                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISSUED 530 AM CST SUN DEC 16 2007                                               
STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS PULLING AWAY... BUT STILL DEALING WITH MVFR              
TO IFR CIGS ACROSS THE EAST. PLENTY OF BREAKS OPENING UP ACROSS                 
WESTERN IL AND EASTERN IOWA... BUT MORE LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO                  
LOOM OVER MUCH OF IOWA. RUC13 AND LOCAL 20KM ARW HAS A GOOD HANDLE              
ON CURRENT SITUATION... AND THESE MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANY BREAKS                
IN THE WEST WILL FILL IN AGAIN TOWARDS MIDDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE               
CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TO NORTHWESTERN                     
ONTARIO DROPS ACROSS THE AREA.                                                  
WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER SNOWPACK... I THINK ANY BREAKS IN THE              
EAST WILL BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED... WITH THE BACK EDGE OF LOW CLOUD              
COVER LIKELY TO HANG AROUND THIS MORNING AFTER SUNRISE... WITH                  
BMI/DEC PLAYING WITH THE FRINGES MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. FINALLY...              
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AT ALL STATIONS LATE TONIGHT. BUT WITH WEAK              
SFC WARM ADVECTION KICKING IN... WOULD COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP               
TOWARDS DAWN MONDAY MORNING.                                                    
HARDIMAN                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
ISSUED 329 AM CST SUN DEC 16 2007                                               
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.                                             
STRONG WINTER STORM IS RAPIDLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS                 
MORNING. 3 AM SFC ANALYSIS HAD 992 MB LOW NEAR COLUMBUS OH... AND               
IT IS CONTINUING TO DEEPEN WHILE WEAKER SFC LOW BECOMES MORE                    
ORGANIZED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. VERY IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM                
SO FAR AND WE ONLY GOT A PIECE OF ITS EARLY STAGES.                             
SNOWFALL REPORTS AND RADAR OVERNIGHT INDICATES THAT IMPRESSIVE                  
MESOSCALE BANDING DID OCCUR FARTHER WEST AS WAS FEARED YESTERDAY                
MORNING. SFC LOW DID HUG QUITE A BIT CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER THAN              
MOST MODELS SUGGESTED 24 HRS AGO. AS A RESULT... THE POCKET OF                  
HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE                 
I-55 CORRIDOR BETWEEN SPI AND BMI... WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS RUNNING               
ACROSS EASTERN MCLEAN COUNTY SOUTHWARD INTO MACON COUNTY.                       
STILL SEEING SOME LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE BANDS THAT STUBBORNLY               
KEEP RE-ENHANCING OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY                 
SUGGESTS NARROW TROWAL MAY BE HOOKING BACK INTO NORTHWESTERN                    
INDIANA... HELPING TO RE-ENHANCE MESOSCALE BANDING. ALSO NOTED                  
THAT BOTH THE NAM AND GFS-BASED LOCAL 20KM WRF RUNS FROM 00Z...                 
WHICH HAVE HANDLED THE LOCATION OF THE BANDING EXCEPTIONALLY WELL               
THIS EVENING... CONTINUE TO HINT AT BANDING PERSISTING IN THE FAR               
EASTERN CWA THROUGH 12Z BEFORE FINALLY GIVING UP THE GHOST.                     
THEREFORE... WE DECIDED TO KEEP THE WARNINGS GOING FOR ALL                      
COUNTIES ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-57 CORRIDOR... BUT WE DROPPED                  
BACK THE EXPIRATION TIME TO 8 AM/14Z. ALL OTHER WARNINGS HAVE BEEN              
DROPPED.                                                                        
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM TODAY CAUSING               
PLENTY OF DRIFTING... ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS               
OF THE CWA. BLOWING SNOW NOT EXPECTED TO BE A BIG ISSUE AT LEAST                
IN TERMS OF LOFTING AND SUBSEQUENT VISBY RESTRICTIONS.                          
WARM ADVECTION LOOKS TO KICK IN MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOS GUIDANCE                  
STILL APPEARS TOO HIGH AND DOES NOT SEEM TO BE TAKING INTO ACCOUNT              
FINAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. WARMER AIR WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF                 
MAKING IT INTO AREAS SOUTH OF I-72 MONDAY... FARTHER NORTH... KEPT              
MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO NAM 2 METER TEMPS... WITH MOST AREAS ALONG THE              
I-74 CORRIDOR STAYING BELOW FREEZING.                                           
OTHERWISE... A SLOW WARM UP LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY              
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD HOPEFULLY KEEP FOG THREAT AT BAY DESPITE WARM                 
ADVECTION... BUT WE COULD SEE SOME DIURNAL STRATOCU DECKS DEVELOP               
ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.                              
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.                                             
NEXT DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO AFFECT THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO                  
THURSDAY... MAINLY BRINGING LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA. COULD              
SEE A MIXED BAG ALONG THE I-72 CORRIDOR WED NIGHT... BUT QPF                    
AMOUNTS STILL SHOULD BE LOW... THUS DO NOT EXPECT MAJOR PROBLEMS.               
ACTIVE PATTERN DOES LOOK TO CONTINUE THOUGH... WITH PERHAPS                     
ANOTHER WINTRY SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND. WHY NOT                  
MAKE IT 4 IN A ROW.                                                             
HARDIMAN                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
530 AM CST SUN DEC 16 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISSUED 329 AM CST SUN DEC 16 2007                                               
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.                                             
STRONG WINTER STORM IS RAPIDLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS                 
MORNING. 3 AM SFC ANALYSIS HAD 992 MB LOW NEAR COLUMBUS OH... AND               
IT IS CONTINUING TO DEEPEN WHILE WEAKER SFC LOW BECOMES MORE                    
ORGANIZED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. VERY IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM                
SO FAR AND WE ONLY GOT A PIECE OF ITS EARLY STAGES.                             
SNOWFALL REPORTS AND RADAR OVERNIGHT INDICATES THAT IMPRESSIVE                  
MESOSCALE BANDING DID OCCUR FARTHER WEST AS WAS FEARED YESTERDAY                
MORNING. SFC LOW DID HUG QUITE A BIT CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER THAN              
MOST MODELS SUGGESTED 24 HRS AGO. AS A RESULT... THE POCKET OF                  
HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE                 
I-55 CORRIDOR BETWEEN SPI AND BMI... WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS RUNNING               
ACROSS EASTERN MCLEAN COUNTY SOUTHWARD INTO MACON COUNTY.                       
STILL SEEING SOME LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE BANDS THAT STUBBORNLY               
KEEP RE-ENHANCING OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY                 
SUGGESTS NARROW TROWAL MAY BE HOOKING BACK INTO NORTHWESTERN                    
INDIANA... HELPING TO RE-ENHANCE MESOSCALE BANDING. ALSO NOTED                  
THAT BOTH THE NAM AND GFS-BASED LOCAL 20KM WRF RUNS FROM 00Z...                 
WHICH HAVE HANDLED THE LOCATION OF THE BANDING EXCEPTIONALLY WELL               
THIS EVENING... CONTINUE TO HINT AT BANDING PERSISTING IN THE FAR               
EASTERN CWA THROUGH 12Z BEFORE FINALLY GIVING UP THE GHOST.                     
THEREFORE... WE DECIDED TO KEEP THE WARNINGS GOING FOR ALL                      
COUNTIES ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-57 CORRIDOR... BUT WE DROPPED                  
BACK THE EXPIRATION TIME TO 8 AM/14Z. ALL OTHER WARNINGS HAVE BEEN              
DROPPED.                                                                        
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM TODAY CAUSING               
PLENTY OF DRIFTING... ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS               
OF THE CWA. BLOWING SNOW NOT EXPECTED TO BE A BIG ISSUE AT LEAST                
IN TERMS OF LOFTING AND SUBSEQUENT VISBY RESTRICTIONS.                          
WARM ADVECTION LOOKS TO KICK IN MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOS GUIDANCE                  
STILL APPEARS TOO HIGH AND DOES NOT SEEM TO BE TAKING INTO ACCOUNT              
FINAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. WARMER AIR WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF                 
MAKING IT INTO AREAS SOUTH OF I-72 MONDAY... FARTHER NORTH... KEPT              
MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO NAM 2 METER TEMPS... WITH MOST AREAS ALONG THE              
I-74 CORRIDOR STAYING BELOW FREEZING.                                           
OTHERWISE... A SLOW WARM UP LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY              
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD HOPEFULLY KEEP FOG THREAT AT BAY DESPITE WARM                 
ADVECTION... BUT WE COULD SEE SOME DIURNAL STRATOCU DECKS DEVELOP               
ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.                              
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.                                             
NEXT DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO AFFECT THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO                  
THURSDAY... MAINLY BRINGING LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA. COULD              
SEE A MIXED BAG ALONG THE I-72 CORRIDOR WED NIGHT... BUT QPF                    
AMOUNTS STILL SHOULD BE LOW... THUS DO NOT EXPECT MAJOR PROBLEMS.               
ACTIVE PATTERN DOES LOOK TO CONTINUE THOUGH... WITH PERHAPS                     
ANOTHER WINTRY SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND. WHY NOT                  
MAKE IT 4 IN A ROW.                                                             
HARDIMAN                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISSUED 530 AM CST SUN DEC 16 2007                                               
STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS PULLING AWAY... BUT STILL DEALING WITH MVFR              
TO IFR CIGS ACROSS THE EAST. PLENTY OF BREAKS OPENING UP ACROSS                 
WESTERN IL AND EASTERN IOWA... BUT MORE LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO                  
LOOM OVER MUCH OF IOWA. RUC13 AND LOCAL 20KM ARW HAS A GOOD HANDLE              
ON CURRENT SITUATION... AND THESE MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANY BREAKS                
IN THE WEST WILL FILL IN AGAIN TOWARDS MIDDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE               
CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TO NORTHWESTERN                     
ONTARIO DROPS ACROSS THE AREA.                                                  
WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER SNOWPACK... I THINK ANY BREAKS IN THE              
EAST WILL BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED... WITH THE BACK EDGE OF LOW CLOUD              
COVER LIKELY TO HANG AROUND THIS MORNING AFTER SUNRISE... WITH                  
BMI/DEC PLAYING WITH THE FRINGES MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. FINALLY...              
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AT ALL STATIONS LATE TONIGHT. BUT WITH WEAK              
SFC WARM ADVECTION KICKING IN... WOULD COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP               
TOWARDS DAWN MONDAY MORNING.                                                    
HARDIMAN                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ILZ045-046-                
055>057-062-063-066>068-071>073.                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1257 PM EST SUN DEC 16 2007                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LAKE EFFECT BAND WILL MOVE OVER KSBN OVER THE NEXT HR OR TWO.                   
TEMPO 1/2SM SN SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT. BLSN STILL A PROBLEM WITH STG              
WINDS. FWA SEEMS TO BE HAVING MORE BLSN THAN SBN AND WILL                       
THEREFORE HIT TEMPO HARDER THERE FOR 1SM VISBYS. VFR VISBYS SHOULD              
PREVAIL AFTER 00Z TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS MAY MOVE IN FM THE NW AS FCST              
SOUNDINGS HINTING THAT WAY AND CURRENT VIS IMAGE SUPPORTIVE WITH                
LG STRAT DECK OVR MN/WI/IA MOVING SLOWLY SE. ADDED JUST A TEMPO                 
MVFR GP AS INVERSION NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE PER FCST SOUNDINGS. THIS             
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN LATER ISSUANCES FOR POSSIBLE IFR                   
CIGS. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIE DOWN TONIGHT...LIKELY ENDING                    
FURTHER VISBY REDUCTIONS DUE TO BLSN.                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 559 AM EST SUN DEC 16 2007/                         
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A MAJOR WINTER STORM WAS UNDERWAY WITH THE                  
DEFORMATION ZONE MOVING OVER NORTHERN INDIANA. THE MIXED AREA OF                
PRECIPITATION MOVED AS FAR NORTHWEST FROM ABOUT A LOGANSPORT TO                 
DEFIANCE LINE. THE RUC 0C 850 MB HAS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS                  
WINTRY MIX...AND ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO SNOW BY                
12Z. VAN WERT EM REPORTED 1/4 INCH OF ICE...PROBABLY                            
REPRESENTATIVE OF LIMA...PORTLAND AND VAN WERT AREAS. HAVE LOWERED              
SNOW TOTALS SOME TO BASICALLY 4 TO 7 INCHES IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST                
DUE TO THIS MIX LASTING LONGER THAN EXPECTED...PORTLAND TO LIMA.                
THE DEFORMATION ZONE SHOULD BEGIN TO PULL LATE THIS MORNING AND                 
WEAKEN AS THE EAST COAST LOW INTENSIFIES. OTHERWISE... SNOWFALL IS              
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 8 TO 14 INCHES IN CORRIDOR FROM MONTICELLO               
TO HILLSDALE. TOTAL STORM SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS               
AREA SHOULD BE A LITTLE LESS...6 TO 12 INCHES. OVERALL...FAVOR THE              
NAM/WRF WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE OVERALL THE BEST HANDLE ON THE LOW                
CYCLOGENESIS AND TRACK INTO OHIO. ALSO...GOOD RESOLUTION OF THE                 
DEFORMATION ZONE PER NAM/WRF. RAISED WIND SPEEDS PER EXPECTED                   
DEEPER OHIO LOW CYCLOGENESIS. THE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST                 
TODAY WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. LIKE NGM/FWC MOS WITH                     
SUSTAINED WINDS MUCH ABOVE 20 KNOTS. CONSIDERED A BLIZZARD                      
WARNING...BUT STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON WIDESPREAD                          
VISIBILITIES AT OR UNDER 1/4 MILE FOR 3 HOURS.                                  
LONG TERM...                                                                    
FOCUS TONIGHT IS WITH ONGOING WINTER STORM AND THEREFORE LITTLE                 
CHANGES MADE TO LONG TERM PORTION OF GRIDS. STILL CONCERNS WITH                 
TEMPERATURES BEING TOO WARM GIVEN THE SNOW TONIGHT AND ITS AFFECT ON            
LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES THROUGH THE WEEK. FEW CHANGES MADE THOUGH            
AS CURRENT GRIDS GENERALLY BELOW MOS AND REASONABLE. CLIPPER SYSTEM             
FOR THURSDAY NOW LOOKS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH IN LATEST GFS RUN AS              
WE EXPECTED. ECMWF SIMILAR BUT A LITTLE WARMER WITH THERMAL FIELDS.             
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT MIXED PRECIPITATION AND FURTHER TRACK                     
ADJUSTMENT EXPECTED...THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE WITH RAIN OR SNOW                 
MENTION. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN BUT SMALL CHANCE AT            
THIS TIME AND DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN SO WILL NOT INTRODUCE. DOES NOT             
LOOK TO BE A SIGNIFICANT QPF EVENT LIKE PAST 3 SYSTEMS. WILL                    
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.                                                            
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 102 AM EST SUN DEC 16 2007/                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
FWA WAS ON THE EDGE OF A WARMER LAYER ALOFT...WITH A MIX BEING                  
REPORTED. SURFACE REPORTS PLUS LATEST RUC INDICATES PRECIPITATION               
SHOULD BECOME ALL SNOW LATER TONIGHT. A LARGE DEFORMATION ZONE                  
SHOULD SET UP OVER NORTHERN INDIANA. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE AND               
BACK TO THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY THE NORTHWEST. LIFR CONDITIONS                 
ARE EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL HOURS WITH SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. THERE                
SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS THE LOW                    
BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA.                                              
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 PM EST SAT DEC 15 2007/                         
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS/EVENING UPDATE...                                            
MAIN CONCERN WITH FORECAST IS THE WAA THAT HAS INVADED THE FAR SE               
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 0 C LINE AT H850 APPEARS TO LIE              
FROM BETWEEN DEFIANCE AND LIMA TO NEAR FORT WAYNE AND THEN ON TO                
AROUND KOKOMO OR FRANKFORT. SOME DECENT BRIGHT-BANDING SEEN ON THE              
CURRENT RADAR LOOP NEARLY STATIONARY AROUND THE ABOVE MENTIONED                 
AREA...TELLING SIGN THAT WE ARE NEAR THE 0C LINE MOST LIKELY!                   
SEEMS AS IF THE LOW ITSELF HAS SLOWED AS WOULD BE EXPECTED AS IT                
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN TONIGHT...THIS HAS ALSO SLOWED THE EASTWARD                 
TRANSIT OF THE 0C LINE AS ALSO MENTIONED ABOVE. THE WAA WILL PUSH               
A BIT FURTHER NORTH INTO NW OHIO FROM 03-06Z BEFORE STARTING TO                 
PUSH EAST AS THE H850 LOW MOVES INTO EXTREME EASTERN INDIANA BY                 
07-09Z. IT MAY PIVOT TO BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE NORTH TO SOUTH DURING              
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BEFORE STARTING THIS SLOW TRANSIT EAST.                    
THEREFORE THOUGH FORT WAYNE IS EXPERIENCING A MIX RIGHT NOW...DO                
NOT THINK THAT IT WILL LAST ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE SNOW TOTALS AS MUCH             
AS FURTHER EAST AND SOUTHEAST TOWARDS LIMA/VAN WERT AREAS AND                   
SOUTH TOWARDS THE MARION TO PORTLAND INDIANA AREA. MODERATE TO                  
HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES WILL BE LIKELY THRU THE OVERNIGHT...AND AFTER               
06-08Z IN OUR FAR EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.                                
OVERALL NEW MODEL DATA SHOWS NO REASON TO ADJUST ANYTHING ANYWHERE              
ELSE...COMMENTS FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE STILL VALID AS NEW DATA                    
CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE AND THE                  
DYNAMICS AND FORCING IS VERY STRONG. UPDATE ZONES AND WARNING OUT               
SHORTLY.                                                                        
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 750 PM EST SAT DEC 15 2007/                          
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS/UPDATE...                                                    
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW INCREASING RETURNS WITH BANDS OF HEAVY                
SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST                    
AREA...OVER THE EAST LIGHTER MIXED PRECIP WITH SLEET AND FRZ                    
RAIN...FRZ RAIN MORE SO ACROSS THE VAN WERT AND LIMA OHIO AREAS.                
IMPORTANT FEATURE RIGHT NOW IS THE H850 LOW SITUATED NEAR SOUTHERN              
IL...WITH WAA WORKING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.               
0C LINE NEAR LIMA OHIO TO NEAR GRISSOM AFB TO NEAR CRAWFORDSVILLE               
INDIANA. STRONG H850-700MB FRONTGENETICAL FORCING SEEN OVER                     
NORTHERN IL INTO LOWER MI. HEAVY BANDED SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN                    
ILLINOIS AT THIS TIME AND FURTHER SOUTH INTO MISSOURI. OVER THE                 
NEXT 8 HOURS THE H850 LOW WILL TRAVEL TO NEAR MUNCIE INDIANA...AND              
THE 0 C LINE THAT WILL HAVE BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY AROUND OR JUST               
SOUTH OF LIMA OHIO AND MARION INDIANA WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA               
ALLOWING FOR ALL SNOW BY 09Z FOR THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA.                       
STRONGEST H850-700MB LAYER FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ACROSS THE                   
REGION WILL BE FROM 03 TO 12Z ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH                    
DECENT NORTHERLY AGEO WINDS AT 300MB HELPING TO PULL MASS FROM THE              
COLUMN AND ENHANCE LIFT...SLANTWISE INSTABILITY AND NEG EPV WHICH               
WILL HELP ADD A CONVECTIVE ELEMENT AND MAY ALLOW FOR VERY QUICK                 
ACCUMULATING SNOWS OF 1-3" PER HOUR UNDER THESE BANDS. THEREFORE                
SOME LIGHTNING AND THUNDER TONIGHT MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION               
ACROSS THE AREA...THUNDERSNOW IS A VERY INTERESTING RARE EVENT.                 
CURRENT                                                                         
RUC THEN SHOWS THE STRONG H700-500MB LAYER FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING              
MOVING THRU FROM 09Z-18Z SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED MODERATE TO              
HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE.                                                            
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 PM EST SAT DEC 15 2007/                          
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY                                                          
NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS SUNDAY ENTIRE CWA. FOCUS ON MINOR TWEAKS               
WITH RESPECT TO SNOW ACCUMS AND ICE ACCRETION FAR SERN CWA THIS                 
FORECAST CYCLE. NAM CONTINUES WELL WRAPPED/WARM SOLUTION THOUGH                 
APPEARED TO FAIL TO PROPERLY CAPTURE PLACEMENT OF 8H LOW...TOO FAR              
WEST...WHICH MAY PLAY ROLE IN SLOWER/DEEPER/WARMER EVOLUTION OF                 
ELEVATED WARM LAYER AHEAD OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACK. 20 UTC                
1005MB SFC LOW NEAR KMEM WITH STRONG NNE-SSW ELONGATED 3HR PRESSURE             
FALLS GT 6MB/3HRS FM FAR WRN KY TO KLAF. SECONDARY PRESSURE FALL                
CENTER NEAR KHTS TO LIKELY BECOME DOMINANT NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND               
LESS FAVOR SUCH EXTREME NWRN SURGE OF IP/ZR AS NAM WOULD INDICATE.              
ALSO COASTAL ENERGY TRANSFER START NOW UNDERWAY WITH INVERTED                   
SURFACE TROFFING EVIDENT FROM AL TO OFF COAST OF CAROLINAS. FAVORING            
GFS/SREF SOLUTION OVERALL WITH LARGELY SNOW EVENT NWRN HALF. MIX OF             
SNOW/SLEET PRIMARILY TONIGHT AS WARM CONVEYOR PER KILN VWP AND SREF             
POINT SOUNDINGS AND 2-3KFT ABOVE 0C LAYER PER KAOH BUFKIT                       
WET BULB PROFILE. NAM OF COURSE MUCH WARMER AND EVEN SUGGESTIVE OF              
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN AS NEARBY AS KFDY AND ZR TO KFWA...WILL STEER                
CLEAR FOR NOW. TOTALS LOWERED ONLY IN IP/ZR AREA BUT WITH                       
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE...GFS WITH 3.5-4 G/KG TAP 1000-850MB LAYER                 
07-13 UTC TIMEFRAME...SUN THIS WILL LIKELY BE AT HEIGHT OF MOST                 
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS NWRN HALF CWA. CONVECTIVE                     
ELEMENTS OBSERVED IN KLSX RADAR AND WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF                 
MID LEVEL DEFORMATION HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER IN AFTER                 
MIDNIGHT IN HEAVY SNOW WITH SNOWFALL RATES 2-3 INCHES/HOUR ARE                  
WHERE CHARGE SEPARATION MORE LIKELY THAN IN MIXED PRECIP AREA OF                
SERN ZONES. QUICK CHANGE OVER IN ERN/SERN ZONES TO ALL SNOW BEFORE              
DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS COASTAL LOW BECOMES DOMINANT AND COLUMN COOLS                
SIGNIFICANTLY. WINDS A GRAVE CONCERN ESPECIALLY TO E-W RUNNING ROADS            
6/30/24/TOLL ROAD/TO IMPASSABLE COUNTY ROADS DRIFTED SHUT. MENTION              
OF NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW ALL BUT FAR                
SERN ZONES TONIGHT AND ENTIRE CWA BY SUNDAY WITH SERN ZONES PICKING             
UP ONE-HALF TO NEAR ONE FOOT OF SNOW WITH OVER 1-2 INCH/HOUR RATES              
OF DRY ENOUGH SNOW TO BLOW/DRIFT ON TOP OF FEW TENTHS CONGLOMERATION            
OF ZR/IP WITH NRLY WINDS TO 35 MPH. BAND OF HEAVIEST TOTAL SNOWS                
WHITE CO NE TO MARSHALL TO ELKHART TO BRANCH/HILLSDALE MI COUNTIES              
TO AROUND 15 INCHES.                                                            
LONG TERM...                                                                    
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE AN ACTIVE FLOW REGIME WITH            
NUMEROUS MID LEVEL IMPULSES TAKING AIM AT THE REGION. WATER VAPOR               
SATELLITE OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN VERIFIES NUMEROUS POTENT TROUGHS               
THAT WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE REGION. MID-LEVEL FLOW                  
CHANGE TO MORE ZONAL WEST-EAST FLOW WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT WARMER                
CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY...BRINGING TEMPS CLOSER TO OR JUST SLIGHTLY               
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REGION...AS THE MAIN NORTHERN STREAM STORM                 
TRACK SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN                
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD SAVE THE               
WEEKEND...AND HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TO THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z AND 00Z              
ECMWF.                                                                          
LOOK FOR A SLOW RECOVERY IN TEMPS THROUGH MID WEEK WITH EXPECTED                
SNOW COVER IN PLACE. CONTINUED TO OPT FOR COOL BELOW GUIDANCE                   
TEMPS...IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. RETAINED POP CHANCES THUR               
AND FRI. WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF              
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WARMER THERMAL             
PROFILES ARE STILL SUPPORTING RAIN. HOWEVER...WILL RETAIN SNOW                  
MENTION DUE TO POSSIBLE COOLER MODEL SOLUTIONS ONCE NEW SNOW FIELD              
IS ASSIMILATED...AS PER PREVIOUS FORECAST.                                      
SATURDAY...ANOTHER LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY BE POSSIBLE NEXT                      
WEEKEND...AS A DEEPER MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WESTERN                    
US...EVENTUALLY EJECTING OUT INTO THE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LATEST               
RUN OF THE ECMWF NO LONGER FAVORS PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND                   
SOUTHERN STREAMS...AND OPTS FOR A SLOWER/WEAKER SYSTEM OVER THE GULF            
COAST. THE GFS WITH SOME SUPPORT OF PREVIOUS ENSEMBLE RUNS DO FAVOR             
PHASING WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE INTENSE SFC LOW. THIS WOULD              
POSSIBLY SPELL MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE REGION.                           
HOWEVER...WITH SUCH A LARGE ENSEMBLE SPREAD/CURRENT POOR SAMPLING               
ISSUES NOTED OVER THE PACIFIC/AND LARGE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION                  
SPREADS...HAVE OPTED DRY FOR NOW. THIS PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE                   
MONITORED.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR            
     INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.                                    
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077>081.           
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ001-002-           
     004-005-015-016-024-025.                                                   
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER                                                            
LONG TERM...LASHLEY                                                             
AVIATION...SIMPSON                                                              
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
559 AM EST SUN DEC 16 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A MAJOR WINTER STORM WAS UNDERWAY WITH THE                  
DEFORMATION ZONE MOVING OVER NORTHERN INDIANA. THE MIXED AREA OF                
PRECIPITATION MOVED AS FAR NORTHWEST FROM ABOUT A LOGANSPORT TO DEFIANCE        
LINE. THE RUC 0C 850 MB HAS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS WINTRY                    
MIX...AND ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO SNOW BY 12Z.                  
VAN WERT EM REPORTED 1/4 INCH OF ICE...PROBABLY REPRESENTATIVE OF               
LIMA...PORTLAND AND VAN WERT AREAS. HAVE LOWERED SNOW TOTALS SOME               
TO BASICALLY 4 TO 7 INCHES IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST DUE TO THIS MIX                 
LASTING LONGER THAN EXPECTED...PORTLAND TO LIMA. THE DEFORMATION                
ZONE SHOULD BEGIN TO PULL LATE THIS MORNING AND WEAKEN AS THE EAST              
COAST LOW INTENSIFIES. OTHERWISE... SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO RANGE               
FROM 8 TO 14 INCHES IN CORRIDOR FROM MONTICELLO TO HILLSDALE.                   
TOTAL STORM SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS AREA SHOULD BE              
A LITTLE LESS...6 TO 12 INCHES. OVERALL...FAVOR THE NAM/WRF WHICH               
APPEARS TO HAVE OVERALL THE BEST HANDLE ON THE LOW CYCLOGENESIS                 
AND TRACK INTO OHIO. ALSO...GOOD RESOLUTION OF THE DEFORMATION                  
ZONE PER NAM/WRF. RAISED WIND SPEEDS PER EXPECTED DEEPER OHIO LOW               
CYCLOGENESIS. THE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY WITH                      
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. LIKE NGM/FWC MOS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS                
MUCH ABOVE 20 KNOTS. CONSIDERED A BLIZZARD WARNING...BUT STILL TOO              
MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES AT OR UNDER 1/4 MILE                
FOR 3 HOURS.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
FOCUS TONIGHT IS WITH ONGOING WINTER STORM AND THEREFORE LITTLE                 
CHANGES MADE TO LONG TERM PORTION OF GRIDS. STILL CONCERNS WITH                 
TEMPERATURES BEING TOO WARM GIVEN THE SNOW TONIGHT AND ITS AFFECT ON            
LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES THROUGH THE WEEK. FEW CHANGES MADE THOUGH            
AS CURRENT GRIDS GENERALLY BELOW MOS AND REASONABLE. CLIPPER SYSTEM             
FOR THURSDAY NOW LOOKS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH IN LATEST GFS RUN AS              
WE EXPECTED. ECMWF SIMILAR BUT A LITTLE WARMER WITH THERMAL FIELDS.             
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT MIXED PRECIPITATION AND FURTHER TRACK                     
ADJUSTMENT EXPECTED...THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE WITH RAIN OR SNOW                 
MENTION. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN BUT SMALL CHANCE AT            
THIS TIME AND DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN SO WILL NOT INTRODUCE. DOES NOT             
LOOK TO BE A SIGNIFICANT QPF EVENT LIKE PAST 3 SYSTEMS. WILL                    
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 102 AM EST SUN DEC 16 2007/                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
FWA WAS ON THE EDGE OF A WARMER LAYER ALOFT...WITH A MIX BEING                  
REPORTED. SURFACE REPORTS PLUS LATEST RUC INDICATES PRECIPITATION               
SHOULD BECOME ALL SNOW LATER TONIGHT. A LARGE DEFORMATION ZONE                  
SHOULD SET UP OVER NORTHERN INDIANA. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE AND               
BACK TO THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY THE NORTHWEST. LIFR CONDITIONS                 
ARE EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL HOURS WITH SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. THERE                
SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS THE LOW                    
BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA.                                              
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 PM EST SAT DEC 15 2007/                         
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS/EVENING UPDATE...                                            
MAIN CONCERN WITH FORECAST IS THE WAA THAT HAS INVADED THE FAR SE               
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 0 C LINE AT H850 APPEARS TO LIE              
FROM BETWEEN DEFIANCE AND LIMA TO NEAR FORT WAYNE AND THEN ON TO                
AROUND KOKOMO OR FRANKFORT. SOME DECENT BRIGHT-BANDING SEEN ON THE              
CURRENT RADAR LOOP NEARLY STATIONARY AROUND THE ABOVE MENTIONED                 
AREA...TELLING SIGN THAT WE ARE NEAR THE 0C LINE MOST LIKELY!                   
SEEMS AS IF THE LOW ITSELF HAS SLOWED AS WOULD BE EXPECTED AS IT                
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN TONIGHT...THIS HAS ALSO SLOWED THE EASTWARD                 
TRANSIT OF THE 0C LINE AS ALSO MENTIONED ABOVE. THE WAA WILL PUSH               
A BIT FURTHER NORTH INTO NW OHIO FROM 03-06Z BEFORE STARTING TO                 
PUSH EAST AS THE H850 LOW MOVES INTO EXTREME EASTERN INDIANA BY                 
07-09Z. IT MAY PIVOT TO BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE NORTH TO SOUTH DURING              
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BEFORE STARTING THIS SLOW TRANSIT EAST.                    
THEREFORE THOUGH FORT WAYNE IS EXPERIENCING A MIX RIGHT NOW...DO                
NOT THINK THAT IT WILL LAST ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE SNOW TOTALS AS MUCH             
AS FURTHER EAST AND SOUTHEAST TOWARDS LIMA/VAN WERT AREAS AND                   
SOUTH TOWARDS THE MARION TO PORTLAND INDIANA AREA. MODERATE TO                  
HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES WILL BE LIKELY THRU THE OVERNIGHT...AND AFTER               
06-08Z IN OUR FAR EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.                                
OVERALL NEW MODEL DATA SHOWS NO REASON TO ADJUST ANYTHING ANYWHERE              
ELSE...COMMENTS FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE STILL VALID AS NEW DATA                    
CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE AND THE                  
DYNAMICS AND FORCING IS VERY STRONG. UPDATE ZONES AND WARNING OUT               
SHORTLY.                                                                        
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 750 PM EST SAT DEC 15 2007/                          
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS/UPDATE...                                                    
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW INCREASING RETURNS WITH BANDS OF HEAVY                
SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST                    
AREA...OVER THE EAST LIGHTER MIXED PRECIP WITH SLEET AND FRZ                    
RAIN...FRZ RAIN MORE SO ACROSS THE VAN WERT AND LIMA OHIO AREAS.                
IMPORTANT FEATURE RIGHT NOW IS THE H850 LOW SITUATED NEAR SOUTHERN              
IL...WITH WAA WORKING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.               
0C LINE NEAR LIMA OHIO TO NEAR GRISSOM AFB TO NEAR CRAWFORDSVILLE               
INDIANA. STRONG H850-700MB FRONTGENETICAL FORCING SEEN OVER                     
NORTHERN IL INTO LOWER MI. HEAVY BANDED SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN                    
ILLINOIS AT THIS TIME AND FURTHER SOUTH INTO MISSOURI. OVER THE                 
NEXT 8 HOURS THE H850 LOW WILL TRAVEL TO NEAR MUNCIE INDIANA...AND              
THE 0 C LINE THAT WILL HAVE BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY AROUND OR JUST               
SOUTH OF LIMA OHIO AND MARION INDIANA WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA               
ALLOWING FOR ALL SNOW BY 09Z FOR THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA.                       
STRONGEST H850-700MB LAYER FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ACROSS THE                   
REGION WILL BE FROM 03 TO 12Z ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH                    
DECENT NORTHERLY AGEO WINDS AT 300MB HELPING TO PULL MASS FROM THE              
COLUMN AND ENHANCE LIFT...SLANTWISE INSTABILITY AND NEG EPV WHICH               
WILL HELP ADD A CONVECTIVE ELEMENT AND MAY ALLOW FOR VERY QUICK                 
ACCUMULATING SNOWS OF 1-3" PER HOUR UNDER THESE BANDS. THEREFORE                
SOME LIGHTNING AND THUNDER TONIGHT MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION               
ACROSS THE AREA...THUNDERSNOW IS A VERY INTERESTING RARE EVENT.                 
CURRENT                                                                         
RUC THEN SHOWS THE STRONG H700-500MB LAYER FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING              
MOVING THRU FROM 09Z-18Z SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED MODERATE TO              
HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE.                                                            
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 PM EST SAT DEC 15 2007/                          
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY                                                          
NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS SUNDAY ENTIRE CWA. FOCUS ON MINOR TWEAKS               
WITH RESPECT TO SNOW ACCUMS AND ICE ACCRETION FAR SERN CWA THIS                 
FORECAST CYCLE. NAM CONTINUES WELL WRAPPED/WARM SOLUTION THOUGH                 
APPEARED TO FAIL TO PROPERLY CAPTURE PLACEMENT OF 8H LOW...TOO FAR              
WEST...WHICH MAY PLAY ROLE IN SLOWER/DEEPER/WARMER EVOLUTION OF                 
ELEVATED WARM LAYER AHEAD OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACK. 20 UTC                
1005MB SFC LOW NEAR KMEM WITH STRONG NNE-SSW ELONGATED 3HR PRESSURE             
FALLS GT 6MB/3HRS FM FAR WRN KY TO KLAF. SECONDARY PRESSURE FALL                
CENTER NEAR KHTS TO LIKELY BECOME DOMINANT NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND               
LESS FAVOR SUCH EXTREME NWRN SURGE OF IP/ZR AS NAM WOULD INDICATE.              
ALSO COASTAL ENERGY TRANSFER START NOW UNDERWAY WITH INVERTED                   
SURFACE TROFFING EVIDENT FROM AL TO OFF COAST OF CAROLINAS. FAVORING            
GFS/SREF SOLUTION OVERALL WITH LARGELY SNOW EVENT NWRN HALF. MIX OF             
SNOW/SLEET PRIMARILY TONIGHT AS WARM CONVEYOR PER KILN VWP AND SREF             
POINT SOUNDINGS AND 2-3KFT ABOVE 0C LAYER PER KAOH BUFKIT                       
WET BULB PROFILE. NAM OF COURSE MUCH WARMER AND EVEN SUGGESTIVE OF              
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN AS NEARBY AS KFDY AND ZR TO KFWA...WILL STEER                
CLEAR FOR NOW. TOTALS LOWERED ONLY IN IP/ZR AREA BUT WITH                       
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE...GFS WITH 3.5-4 G/KG TAP 1000-850MB LAYER                 
07-13 UTC TIMEFRAME...SUN THIS WILL LIKELY BE AT HEIGHT OF MOST                 
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS NWRN HALF CWA. CONVECTIVE                     
ELEMENTS OBSERVED IN KLSX RADAR AND WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF                 
MID LEVEL DEFORMATION HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER IN AFTER                 
MIDNIGHT IN HEAVY SNOW WITH SNOWFALL RATES 2-3 INCHES/HOUR ARE                  
WHERE CHARGE SEPARATION MORE LIKELY THAN IN MIXED PRECIP AREA OF                
SERN ZONES. QUICK CHANGE OVER IN ERN/SERN ZONES TO ALL SNOW BEFORE              
DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS COASTAL LOW BECOMES DOMINANT AND COLUMN COOLS                
SIGNIFICANTLY. WINDS A GRAVE CONCERN ESPECIALLY TO E-W RUNNING ROADS            
6/30/24/TOLL ROAD/TO IMPASSABLE COUNTY ROADS DRIFTED SHUT. MENTION              
OF NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW ALL BUT FAR                
SERN ZONES TONIGHT AND ENTIRE CWA BY SUNDAY WITH SERN ZONES PICKING             
UP ONE-HALF TO NEAR ONE FOOT OF SNOW WITH OVER 1-2 INCH/HOUR RATES              
OF DRY ENOUGH SNOW TO BLOW/DRIFT ON TOP OF FEW TENTHS CONGLOMERATION            
OF ZR/IP WITH NRLY WINDS TO 35 MPH. BAND OF HEAVIEST TOTAL SNOWS                
WHITE CO NE TO MARSHALL TO ELKHART TO BRANCH/HILLSDALE MI COUNTIES              
TO AROUND 15 INCHES.                                                            
LONG TERM...                                                                    
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE AN ACTIVE FLOW REGIME WITH            
NUMEROUS MID LEVEL IMPULSES TAKING AIM AT THE REGION. WATER VAPOR               
SATELLITE OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN VERIFIES NUMEROUS POTENT TROUGHS               
THAT WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE REGION. MID-LEVEL FLOW                  
CHANGE TO MORE ZONAL WEST-EAST FLOW WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT WARMER                
CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY...BRINGING TEMPS CLOSER TO OR JUST SLIGHTLY               
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REGION...AS THE MAIN NORTHERN STREAM STORM                 
TRACK SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN                
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD SAVE THE               
WEEKEND...AND HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TO THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z AND 00Z              
ECMWF.                                                                          
LOOK FOR A SLOW RECOVERY IN TEMPS THROUGH MID WEEK WITH EXPECTED                
SNOW COVER IN PLACE. CONTINUED TO OPT FOR COOL BELOW GUIDANCE                   
TEMPS...IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. RETAINED POP CHANCES THUR               
AND FRI. WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF              
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WARMER THERMAL             
PROFILES ARE STILL SUPPORTING RAIN. HOWEVER...WILL RETAIN SNOW                  
MENTION DUE TO POSSIBLE COOLER MODEL SOLUTIONS ONCE NEW SNOW FIELD              
IS ASSIMILATED...AS PER PREVIOUS FORECAST.                                      
SATURDAY...ANOTHER LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY BE POSSIBLE NEXT                      
WEEKEND...AS A DEEPER MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WESTERN                    
US...EVENTUALLY EJECTING OUT INTO THE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LATEST               
RUN OF THE ECMWF NO LONGER FAVORS PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND                   
SOUTHERN STREAMS...AND OPTS FOR A SLOWER/WEAKER SYSTEM OVER THE GULF            
COAST. THE GFS WITH SOME SUPPORT OF PREVIOUS ENSEMBLE RUNS DO FAVOR             
PHASING WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE INTENSE SFC LOW. THIS WOULD              
POSSIBLY SPELL MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE REGION.                           
HOWEVER...WITH SUCH A LARGE ENSEMBLE SPREAD/CURRENT POOR SAMPLING               
ISSUES NOTED OVER THE PACIFIC/AND LARGE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION                  
SPREADS...HAVE OPTED DRY FOR NOW. THIS PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE                   
MONITORED.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR            
     INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.                                    
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077>081.           
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ001-002-           
     004-005-015-016-024-025.                                                   
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER                                                            
LONG TERM...LASHLEY                                                             
AVIATION...SKIPPER                                                              
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
102 AM EST SUN DEC 16 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FWA WAS ON THE EDGE OF A WARMER LAYER ALOFT...WITH A MIX BEING                  
REPORTED. SURFACE REPORTS PLUS LATEST RUC INDICATES PRECIPITATION               
SHOULD BECOME ALL SNOW LATER TONIGHT. A LARGE DEFORMATION ZONE                  
SHOULD SET UP OVER NORTHERN INDIANA. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE AND               
BACK TO THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY THE NORTHWEST. LIFR CONDITIONS                 
ARE EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL HOURS WITH SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. THERE                
SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS THE LOW                    
BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA.                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 PM EST SAT DEC 15 2007/                        
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS/EVENING UPDATE...                                            
MAIN CONCERN WITH FORECAST IS THE WAA THAT HAS INVADED THE FAR SE               
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 0 C LINE AT H850 APPEARS TO LIE              
FROM BETWEEN DEFIANCE AND LIMA TO NEAR FORT WAYNE AND THEN ON TO                
AROUND KOKOMO OR FRANKFORT. SOME DECENT BRIGHT-BANDING SEEN ON THE              
CURRENT RADAR LOOP NEARLY STATIONARY AROUND THE ABOVE MENTIONED                 
AREA...TELLING SIGN THAT WE ARE NEAR THE 0C LINE MOST LIKELY!                   
SEEMS AS IF THE LOW ITSELF HAS SLOWED AS WOULD BE EXPECTED AS IT                
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN TONIGHT...THIS HAS ALSO SLOWED THE EASTWARD                 
TRANSIT OF THE 0C LINE AS ALSO MENTIONED ABOVE. THE WAA WILL PUSH               
A BIT FURTHER NORTH INTO NW OHIO FROM 03-06Z BEFORE STARTING TO                 
PUSH EAST AS THE H850 LOW MOVES INTO EXTREME EASTERN INDIANA BY                 
07-09Z. IT MAY PIVOT TO BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE NORTH TO SOUTH DURING              
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BEFORE STARTING THIS SLOW TRANSIT EAST.                    
THEREFORE THOUGH FORT WAYNE IS EXPERIENCING A MIX RIGHT NOW...DO                
NOT THINK THAT IT WILL LAST ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE SNOW TOTALS AS MUCH             
AS FURTHER EAST AND SOUTHEAST TOWARDS LIMA/VAN WERT AREAS AND                   
SOUTH TOWARDS THE MARION TO PORTLAND INDIANA AREA. MODERATE TO                  
HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES WILL BE LIKELY THRU THE OVERNIGHT...AND AFTER               
06-08Z IN OUR FAR EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.                                
OVERALL NEW MODEL DATA SHOWS NO REASON TO ADJUST ANYTHING ANYWHERE              
ELSE...COMMENTS FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE STILL VALID AS NEW DATA                    
CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE AND THE                  
DYNAMICS AND FORCING IS VERY STRONG. UPDATE ZONES AND WARNING OUT               
SHORTLY.                                                                        
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 750 PM EST SAT DEC 15 2007/                          
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS/UPDATE...                                                    
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW INCREASING RETURNS WITH BANDS OF HEAVY                
SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST                    
AREA...OVER THE EAST LIGHTER MIXED PRECIP WITH SLEET AND FRZ                    
RAIN...FRZ RAIN MORE SO ACROSS THE VAN WERT AND LIMA OHIO AREAS.                
IMPORTANT FEATURE RIGHT NOW IS THE H850 LOW SITUATED NEAR SOUTHERN              
IL...WITH WAA WORKING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.               
0C LINE NEAR LIMA OHIO TO NEAR GRISSOM AFB TO NEAR CRAWFORDSVILLE               
INDIANA. STRONG H850-700MB FRONTGENETICAL FORCING SEEN OVER                     
NORTHERN IL INTO LOWER MI. HEAVY BANDED SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN                    
ILLINOIS AT THIS TIME AND FURTHER SOUTH INTO MISSOURI. OVER THE                 
NEXT 8 HOURS THE H850 LOW WILL TRAVEL TO NEAR MUNCIE INDIANA...AND              
THE 0 C LINE THAT WILL HAVE BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY AROUND OR JUST               
SOUTH OF LIMA OHIO AND MARION INDIANA WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA               
ALLOWING FOR ALL SNOW BY 09Z FOR THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA.                       
STRONGEST H850-700MB LAYER FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ACROSS THE                   
REGION WILL BE FROM 03 TO 12Z ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH                    
DECENT NORTHERLY AGEO WINDS AT 300MB HELPING TO PULL MASS FROM THE              
COLUMN AND ENHANCE LIFT...SLANTWISE INSTABILITY AND NEG EPV WHICH               
WILL HELP ADD A CONVECTIVE ELEMENT AND MAY ALLOW FOR VERY QUICK                 
ACCUMULATING SNOWS OF 1-3" PER HOUR UNDER THESE BANDS. THEREFORE                
SOME LIGHTNING AND THUNDER TONIGHT MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION               
ACROSS THE AREA...THUNDERSNOW IS A VERY INTERESTING RARE EVENT.                 
CURRENT                                                                         
RUC THEN SHOWS THE STRONG H700-500MB LAYER FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING              
MOVING THRU FROM 09Z-18Z SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED MODERATE TO              
HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE.                                                            
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 PM EST SAT DEC 15 2007/                          
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY                                                          
NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS SUNDAY ENTIRE CWA. FOCUS ON MINOR TWEAKS               
WITH RESPECT TO SNOW ACCUMS AND ICE ACCRETION FAR SERN CWA THIS                 
FORECAST CYCLE. NAM CONTINUES WELL WRAPPED/WARM SOLUTION THOUGH                 
APPEARED TO FAIL TO PROPERLY CAPTURE PLACEMENT OF 8H LOW...TOO FAR              
WEST...WHICH MAY PLAY ROLE IN SLOWER/DEEPER/WARMER EVOLUTION OF                 
ELEVATED WARM LAYER AHEAD OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACK. 20 UTC                
1005MB SFC LOW NEAR KMEM WITH STRONG NNE-SSW ELONGATED 3HR PRESSURE             
FALLS GT 6MB/3HRS FM FAR WRN KY TO KLAF. SECONDARY PRESSURE FALL                
CENTER NEAR KHTS TO LIKELY BECOME DOMINANT NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND               
LESS FAVOR SUCH EXTREME NWRN SURGE OF IP/ZR AS NAM WOULD INDICATE.              
ALSO COASTAL ENERGY TRANSFER START NOW UNDERWAY WITH INVERTED                   
SURFACE TROFFING EVIDENT FROM AL TO OFF COAST OF CAROLINAS. FAVORING            
GFS/SREF SOLUTION OVERALL WITH LARGELY SNOW EVENT NWRN HALF. MIX OF             
SNOW/SLEET PRIMARILY TONIGHT AS WARM CONVEYOR PER KILN VWP AND SREF             
POINT SOUNDINGS AND 2-3KFT ABOVE 0C LAYER PER KAOH BUFKIT                       
WET BULB PROFILE. NAM OF COURSE MUCH WARMER AND EVEN SUGGESTIVE OF              
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN AS NEARBY AS KFDY AND ZR TO KFWA...WILL STEER                
CLEAR FOR NOW. TOTALS LOWERED ONLY IN IP/ZR AREA BUT WITH                       
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE...GFS WITH 3.5-4 G/KG TAP 1000-850MB LAYER                 
07-13 UTC TIMEFRAME...SUN THIS WILL LIKELY BE AT HEIGHT OF MOST                 
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS NWRN HALF CWA. CONVECTIVE                     
ELEMENTS OBSERVED IN KLSX RADAR AND WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF                 
MID LEVEL DEFORMATION HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER IN AFTER                 
MIDNIGHT IN HEAVY SNOW WITH SNOWFALL RATES 2-3 INCHES/HOUR ARE                  
WHERE CHARGE SEPARATION MORE LIKELY THAN IN MIXED PRECIP AREA OF                
SERN ZONES. QUICK CHANGE OVER IN ERN/SERN ZONES TO ALL SNOW BEFORE              
DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS COASTAL LOW BECOMES DOMINANT AND COLUMN COOLS                
SIGNIFICANTLY. WINDS A GRAVE CONCERN ESPECIALLY TO E-W RUNNING ROADS            
6/30/24/TOLL ROAD/TO IMPASSABLE COUNTY ROADS DRIFTED SHUT. MENTION              
OF NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW ALL BUT FAR                
SERN ZONES TONIGHT AND ENTIRE CWA BY SUNDAY WITH SERN ZONES PICKING             
UP ONE-HALF TO NEAR ONE FOOT OF SNOW WITH OVER 1-2 INCH/HOUR RATES              
OF DRY ENOUGH SNOW TO BLOW/DRIFT ON TOP OF FEW TENTHS CONGLOMERATION            
OF ZR/IP WITH NRLY WINDS TO 35 MPH. BAND OF HEAVIEST TOTAL SNOWS                
WHITE CO NE TO MARSHALL TO ELKHART TO BRANCH/HILLSDALE MI COUNTIES              
TO AROUND 15 INCHES.                                                            
LONG TERM...                                                                    
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE AN ACTIVE FLOW REGIME WITH            
NUMEROUS MID LEVEL IMPULSES TAKING AIM AT THE REGION. WATER VAPOR               
SATELLITE OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN VERIFIES NUMEROUS POTENT TROUGHS               
THAT WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE REGION. MID-LEVEL FLOW                  
CHANGE TO MORE ZONAL WEST-EAST FLOW WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT WARMER                
CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY...BRINGING TEMPS CLOSER TO OR JUST SLIGHTLY               
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REGION...AS THE MAIN NORTHERN STREAM STORM                 
TRACK SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN                
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD SAVE THE               
WEEKEND...AND HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TO THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z AND 00Z              
ECMWF.                                                                          
LOOK FOR A SLOW RECOVERY IN TEMPS THROUGH MID WEEK WITH EXPECTED                
SNOW COVER IN PLACE. CONTINUED TO OPT FOR COOL BELOW GUIDANCE                   
TEMPS...IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. RETAINED POP CHANCES THUR               
AND FRI. WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF              
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WARMER THERMAL             
PROFILES ARE STILL SUPPORTING RAIN. HOWEVER...WILL RETAIN SNOW                  
MENTION DUE TO POSSIBLE COOLER MODEL SOLUTIONS ONCE NEW SNOW FIELD              
IS ASSIMILATED...AS PER PREVIOUS FORECAST.                                      
SATURDAY...ANOTHER LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY BE POSSIBLE NEXT                      
WEEKEND...AS A DEEPER MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WESTERN                    
US...EVENTUALLY EJECTING OUT INTO THE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LATEST               
RUN OF THE ECMWF NO LONGER FAVORS PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND                   
SOUTHERN STREAMS...AND OPTS FOR A SLOWER/WEAKER SYSTEM OVER THE GULF            
COAST. THE GFS WITH SOME SUPPORT OF PREVIOUS ENSEMBLE RUNS DO FAVOR             
PHASING WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE INTENSE SFC LOW. THIS WOULD              
POSSIBLY SPELL MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE REGION.                           
HOWEVER...WITH SUCH A LARGE ENSEMBLE SPREAD/CURRENT POOR SAMPLING               
ISSUES NOTED OVER THE PACIFIC/AND LARGE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION                  
SPREADS...HAVE OPTED DRY FOR NOW. THIS PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE                   
MONITORED.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR            
     INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.                                    
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077>081.           
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ001-002-           
     004-005-015-016-024-025.                                                   
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...MURPHY                                                             
LONG TERM...CHAMBERLAIN                                                         
AVIATION...SKIPPER                                                              
UPDATE...SCHOTT                                                                 
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1007 PM EST SAT DEC 15 2007                                                     
...CORRECTED SPELLING ERROR..                                                   
.MESOSCALE ANALYSIS/EVENING UPDATE...                                           
MAIN CONCERN WITH FORECAST IS THE WAA THAT HAS INVADED THE FAR SE               
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 0 C LINE AT H850 APPEARS TO LIE              
FROM BETWEEN DEFIANCE AND LIMA TO NEAR FORT WAYNE AND THEN ON TO                
AROUND KOKOMO OR FRANKFORT. SOME DECENT BRIGHT-BANDING SEEN ON THE              
CURRENT RADAR LOOP NEARLY STATIONARY AROUND THE ABOVE MENTIONED                 
AREA...TELLING SIGN THAT WE ARE NEAR THE 0C LINE MOST LIKELY!                   
SEEMS AS IF THE LOW ITSELF HAS SLOWED AS WOULD BE EXPECTED AS IT                
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN TONIGHT...THIS HAS ALSO SLOWED THE EASTWARD                 
TRANSIT OF THE 0C LINE AS ALSO MENTIONED ABOVE. THE WAA WILL PUSH               
A BIT FURTHER NORTH INTO NW OHIO FROM 03-06Z BEFORE STARTING TO                 
PUSH EAST AS THE H850 LOW MOVES INTO EXTREME EASTERN INDIANA BY                 
07-09Z. IT MAY PIVOT TO BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE NORTH TO SOUTH DURING              
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BEFORE STARTING THIS SLOW TRANSIT EAST.                    
THEREFORE THOUGH FORT WAYNE IS EXPERIENCING A MIX RIGHT NOW...DO                
NOT THINK THAT IT WILL LAST ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE SNOW TOTALS AS MUCH             
AS FURTHER EAST AND SOUTHEAST TOWARDS LIMA/VAN WERT AREAS AND                   
SOUTH TOWARDS THE MARION TO PORTLAND INDIANA AREA. MODERATE TO                  
HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES WILL BE LIKELY THRU THE OVERNIGHT...AND AFTER               
06-08Z IN OUR FAR EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.                                
OVERALL NEW MODEL DATA SHOWS NO REASON TO ADJUST ANYTHING ANYWHERE              
ELSE...COMMENTS FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE STILL VALID AS NEW DATA                    
CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE AND THE                  
DYNAMICS AND FORCING IS VERY STRONG. UPDATE ZONES AND WARNING OUT               
SHORTLY.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 750 PM EST SAT DEC 15 2007/                         
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS/UPDATE...                                                    
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW INCREASING RETURNS WITH BANDS OF HEAVY                
SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST                    
AREA...OVER THE EAST LIGHTER MIXED PRECIP WITH SLEET AND FRZ                    
RAIN...FRZ RAIN MORE SO ACROSS THE VAN WERT AND LIMA OHIO AREAS.                
IMPORTANT FEATURE RIGHT NOW IS THE H850 LOW SITUATED NEAR SOUTHERN              
IL...WITH WAA WORKING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.               
0C LINE NEAR LIMA OHIO TO NEAR GRISSOM AFB TO NEAR CRAWFORDSVILLE               
INDIANA. STRONG H850-700MB FRONTGENETICAL FORCING SEEN OVER                     
NORTHERN IL INTO LOWER MI. HEAVY BANDED SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN                    
ILLINOIS AT THIS TIME AND FURTHER SOUTH INTO MISSOURI. OVER THE                 
NEXT 8 HOURS THE H850 LOW WILL TRAVEL TO NEAR MUNCIE INDIANA...AND              
THE 0 C LINE THAT WILL HAVE BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY AROUND OR JUST               
SOUTH OF LIMA OHIO AND MARION INDIANA WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA               
ALLOWING FOR ALL SNOW BY 09Z FOR THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA.                       
STRONGEST H850-700MB LAYER FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ACROSS THE                   
REGION WILL BE FROM 03 TO 12Z ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH                    
DECENT NORTHERLY AGEO WINDS AT 300MB HELPING TO PULL MASS FROM THE              
COLUMN AND ENHANCE LIFT...SLANTWISE INSTABILITY AND NEG EPV WHICH               
WILL HELP ADD A CONVECTIVE ELEMENT AND MAY ALLOW FOR VERY QUICK                 
ACCUMULATING SNOWS OF 1-3" PER HOUR UNDER THESE BANDS. THEREFORE                
SOME LIGHTNING AND THUNDER TONIGHT MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION               
ACROSS THE AREA...THUNDERSNOW IS A VERY INTERESTING RARE EVENT.                 
CURRENT                                                                         
RUC THEN SHOWS THE STRONG H700-500MB LAYER FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING              
MOVING THRU FROM 09Z-18Z SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED MODERATE TO              
HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE.                                                            
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM EST SAT DEC 15 2007/                          
AVIATION (00Z TAFS)...                                                          
IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE PERIOD ACROSS THE REGION.              
A STRONG WINTER SNOW STORM WILL BRING LOW CIGS AND VERY LOW VSBYS               
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT (LESS THAN 300FT AND 1/2 SM). SNOW WILL               
START TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE                     
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...AS WELL AS THE WINDS. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG               
WITH SUSTAIN VALUES NEAR 20KTS...AND GUSTS TO AROUND 30KTS                      
CREATING POSSIBLE 0SM VSBY WITH BLSN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND                  
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL TREND TOWARDS MVFR LATE                      
TOMORROW AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AS THE SNOW ENDS AND THE CIGS               
BUMP UP SLIGHTLY...WINDS AND BLSN WILL STILL AN ISSUE SO HAVE                   
VSBY AROUND 5SM...MAY NEED TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS BUT TYING TO BE                  
OPTIMISTIC HERE.                                                                
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 PM EST SAT DEC 15 2007/                          
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY                                                          
NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS SUNDAY ENTIRE CWA. FOCUS ON MINOR TWEAKS               
WITH RESPECT TO SNOW ACCUMS AND ICE ACCRETION FAR SERN CWA THIS                 
FORECAST CYCLE. NAM CONTINUES WELL WRAPPED/WARM SOLUTION THOUGH                 
APPEARED TO FAIL TO PROPERLY CAPTURE PLACEMENT OF 8H LOW...TOO FAR              
WEST...WHICH MAY PLAY ROLE IN SLOWER/DEEPER/WARMER EVOLUTION OF                 
ELEVATED WARM LAYER AHEAD OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACK. 20 UTC                
1005MB SFC LOW NEAR KMEM WITH STRONG NNE-SSW ELONGATED 3HR PRESSURE             
FALLS GT 6MB/3HRS FM FAR WRN KY TO KLAF. SECONDARY PRESSURE FALL                
CENTER NEAR KHTS TO LIKELY BECOME DOMINANT NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND               
LESS FAVOR SUCH EXTREME NWRN SURGE OF IP/ZR AS NAM WOULD INDICATE.              
ALSO COASTAL ENERGY TRANSFER START NOW UNDERWAY WITH INVERTED                   
SURFACE TROFFING EVIDENT FROM AL TO OFF COAST OF CAROLINAS. FAVORING            
GFS/SREF SOLUTION OVERALL WITH LARGELY SNOW EVENT NWRN HALF. MIX OF             
SNOW/SLEET PRIMARILY TONIGHT AS WARM CONVEYOR PER KILN VWP AND SREF             
POINT SOUNDINGS AND 2-3KFT ABOVE 0C LAYER PER KAOH BUFKIT                       
WET BULB PROFILE. NAM OF COURSE MUCH WARMER AND EVEN SUGGESTIVE OF              
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN AS NEARBY AS KFDY AND ZR TO KFWA...WILL STEER                
CLEAR FOR NOW. TOTALS LOWERED ONLY IN IP/ZR AREA BUT WITH                       
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE...GFS WITH 3.5-4 G/KG TAP 1000-850MB LAYER                 
07-13 UTC TIMEFRAME...SUN THIS WILL LIKELY BE AT HEIGHT OF MOST                 
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS NWRN HALF CWA. CONVECTIVE                     
ELEMENTS OBSERVED IN KLSX RADAR AND WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF                 
MID LEVEL DEFORMATION HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER IN AFTER                 
MIDNIGHT IN HEAVY SNOW WITH SNOWFALL RATES 2-3 INCHES/HOUR ARE                  
WHERE CHARGE SEPARATION MORE LIKELY THAN IN MIXED PRECIP AREA OF                
SERN ZONES. QUICK CHANGE OVER IN ERN/SERN ZONES TO ALL SNOW BEFORE              
DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS COASTAL LOW BECOMES DOMINANT AND COLUMN COOLS                
SIGNIFICANTLY. WINDS A GRAVE CONCERN ESPECIALLY TO E-W RUNNING ROADS            
6/30/24/TOLL ROAD/TO IMPASSABLE COUNTY ROADS DRIFTED SHUT. MENTION              
OF NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW ALL BUT FAR                
SERN ZONES TONIGHT AND ENTIRE CWA BY SUNDAY WITH SERN ZONES PICKING             
UP ONE-HALF TO NEAR ONE FOOT OF SNOW WITH OVER 1-2 INCH/HOUR RATES              
OF DRY ENOUGH SNOW TO BLOW/DRIFT ON TOP OF FEW TENTHS CONGLOMERATION            
OF ZR/IP WITH NRLY WINDS TO 35 MPH. BAND OF HEAVIEST TOTAL SNOWS                
WHITE CO NE TO MARSHALL TO ELKHART TO BRANCH/HILLSDALE MI COUNTIES              
TO AROUND 15 INCHES.                                                            
LONG TERM...                                                                    
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE AN ACTIVE FLOW REGIME WITH            
NUMEROUS MID LEVEL IMPULSES TAKING AIM AT THE REGION. WATER VAPOR               
SATELLITE OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN VERIFIES NUMEROUS POTENT TROUGHS               
THAT WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE REGION. MID-LEVEL FLOW                  
CHANGE TO MORE ZONAL WEST-EAST FLOW WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT WARMER                
CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY...BRINGING TEMPS CLOSER TO OR JUST SLIGHTLY               
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REGION...AS THE MAIN NORTHERN STREAM STORM                 
TRACK SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN                
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD SAVE THE               
WEEKEND...AND HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TO THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z AND 00Z              
ECMWF.                                                                          
LOOK FOR A SLOW RECOVERY IN TEMPS THROUGH MID WEEK WITH EXPECTED                
SNOW COVER IN PLACE. CONTINUED TO OPT FOR COOL BELOW GUIDANCE                   
TEMPS...IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. RETAINED POP CHANCES THUR               
AND FRI. WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF              
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WARMER THERMAL             
PROFILES ARE STILL SUPPORTING RAIN. HOWEVER...WILL RETAIN SNOW                  
MENTION DUE TO POSSIBLE COOLER MODEL SOLUTIONS ONCE NEW SNOW FIELD              
IS ASSIMILATED...AS PER PREVIOUS FORECAST.                                      
SATURDAY...ANOTHER LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY BE POSSIBLE NEXT                      
WEEKEND...AS A DEEPER MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WESTERN                    
US...EVENTUALLY EJECTING OUT INTO THE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LATEST               
RUN OF THE ECMWF NO LONGER FAVORS PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND                   
SOUTHERN STREAMS...AND OPTS FOR A SLOWER/WEAKER SYSTEM OVER THE GULF            
COAST. THE GFS WITH SOME SUPPORT OF PREVIOUS ENSEMBLE RUNS DO FAVOR             
PHASING WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE INTENSE SFC LOW. THIS WOULD              
POSSIBLY SPELL MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE REGION.                           
HOWEVER...WITH SUCH A LARGE ENSEMBLE SPREAD/CURRENT POOR SAMPLING               
ISSUES NOTED OVER THE PACIFIC/AND LARGE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION                  
SPREADS...HAVE OPTED DRY FOR NOW. THIS PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE                   
MONITORED.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ SUNDAY FOR                  
     INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.                                    
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ077>081.                 
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ001-002-004-             
     005-015-016-024-025.                                                       
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ043-046.                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...MURPHY                                                             
LONG TERM...CHAMBERLAIN                                                         
UPDATE...SCHOTT                                                                 
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
750 PM EST SAT DEC 15 2007                                                      
.MESOSCALE ANALYSIS/UPDATE...                                                   
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW INCREASING RETURNS WITH BANDS OF HEAVY                
SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST                    
AREA...OVER THE EAST LIGHTER MIXED PRECIP WITH SLEET AND FRZ                    
RAIN...FRZ RAIN MORE SO ACROSS THE VAN WERT AND LIMA OHIO AREAS.                
IMPORTANT FEATURE RIGHT NOW IS THE H850 LOW SITUATED NEAR SOUTHERN              
IL...WITH WAA WORKING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.               
0C LINE NEAR LIMA OHIO TO NEAR GRISSOM AFB TO NEAR CRAWFORDSVILLE               
INDIANA. STRONG H850-700MB FRONTGENETICAL FORCING SEEN OVER                     
NORTHERN IL INTO LOWER MI. HEAVY BANDED SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN                    
ILLINOIS AT THIS TIME AND FURTHER SOUTH INTO MISSOURI. OVER THE                 
NEXT 8 HOURS THE H850 LOW WILL TRAVEL TO NEAR MUNCIE INDIANA...AND              
THE 0 C LINE THAT WILL HAVE BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY AROUND OR JUST               
SOUTH OF LIMA OHIO AND MARION INDIANA WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA               
ALLOWING FOR ALL SNOW BY 09Z FOR THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA.                       
STRONGEST H850-700MB LAYER FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ACROSS THE                   
REGION WILL BE FROM 03 TO 12Z ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH                    
DECENT NORTHERLY AGEO WINDS AT 300MB HELPING TO PULL MASS FROM THE              
COLUMN AND ENHANCE LIFT...SLANTWISE INSTABILITY AND NEG EPV WHICH               
WILL HELP ADD A CONVECTIVE ELEMENT AND MAY ALLOW FOR VERY QUICK                 
ACCUMULATING SNOWS OF 1-3" PER HOUR UNDER THESE BANDS. THEREFORE                
SOME LIGHTNING AND THUNDER TONIGHT MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION               
ACROSS THE AREA...THUNDERSNOW IS A VERY INTERESTING RARE EVENT. CURRENT         
RUC THEN SHOWS THE STRONG H700-500MB LAYER FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING              
MOVING THRU FROM 09Z-18Z SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED MODERATE TO              
HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM EST SAT DEC 15 2007/                         
AVIATION (00Z TAFS)...                                                          
IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE PERIOD ACROSS THE REGION.              
A STRONG WINTER SNOW STORM WILL BRING LOW CIGS AND VERY LOW VSBYS               
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT (LESS THAN 300FT AND 1/2 SM). SNOW WILL               
START TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE                     
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...AS WELL AS THE WINDS. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG               
WITH SUSTAIN VALUES NEAR 20KTS...AND GUSTS TO AROUND 30KTS                      
CREATING POSSIBLE 0SM VSBY WITH BLSN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND                  
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL TREND TOWARDS MVFR LATE                      
TOMORROW AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AS THE SNOW ENDS AND THE CIGS               
BUMP UP SLIGHTLY...WINDS AND BLSN WILL STILL AN ISSUE SO HAVE                   
VSBY AROUND 5SM...MAY NEED TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS BUT TYING TO BE                  
OPTIMISTIC HERE.                                                                
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 PM EST SAT DEC 15 2007/                          
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY                                                          
NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS SUNDAY ENTIRE CWA. FOCUS ON MINOR TWEAKS               
WITH RESPECT TO SNOW ACCUMS AND ICE ACCRETION FAR SERN CWA THIS                 
FORECAST CYCLE. NAM CONTINUES WELL WRAPPED/WARM SOLUTION THOUGH                 
APPEARED TO FAIL TO PROPERLY CAPTURE PLACEMENT OF 8H LOW...TOO FAR              
WEST...WHICH MAY PLAY ROLE IN SLOWER/DEEPER/WARMER EVOLUTION OF                 
ELEVATED WARM LAYER AHEAD OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACK. 20 UTC                
1005MB SFC LOW NEAR KMEM WITH STRONG NNE-SSW ELONGATED 3HR PRESSURE             
FALLS GT 6MB/3HRS FM FAR WRN KY TO KLAF. SECONDARY PRESSURE FALL                
CENTER NEAR KHTS TO LIKELY BECOME DOMINANT NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND               
LESS FAVOR SUCH EXTREME NWRN SURGE OF IP/ZR AS NAM WOULD INDICATE.              
ALSO COASTAL ENERGY TRANSFER START NOW UNDERWAY WITH INVERTED                   
SURFACE TROFFING EVIDENT FROM AL TO OFF COAST OF CAROLINAS. FAVORING            
GFS/SREF SOLUTION OVERALL WITH LARGELY SNOW EVENT NWRN HALF. MIX OF             
SNOW/SLEET PRIMARILY TONIGHT AS WARM CONVEYOR PER KILN VWP AND SREF             
POINT SOUNDINGS AND 2-3KFT ABOVE 0C LAYER PER KAOH BUFKIT                       
WET BULB PROFILE. NAM OF COURSE MUCH WARMER AND EVEN SUGGESTIVE OF              
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN AS NEARBY AS KFDY AND ZR TO KFWA...WILL STEER                
CLEAR FOR NOW. TOTALS LOWERED ONLY IN IP/ZR AREA BUT WITH                       
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE...GFS WITH 3.5-4 G/KG TAP 1000-850MB LAYER                 
07-13 UTC TIMEFRAME...SUN THIS WILL LIKELY BE AT HEIGHT OF MOST                 
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS NWRN HALF CWA. CONVECTIVE                     
ELEMENTS OBSERVED IN KLSX RADAR AND WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF                 
MID LEVEL DEFORMATION HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER IN AFTER                 
MIDNIGHT IN HEAVY SNOW WITH SNOWFALL RATES 2-3 INCHES/HOUR ARE                  
WHERE CHARGE SEPARATION MORE LIKELY THAN IN MIXED PRECIP AREA OF                
SERN ZONES. QUICK CHANGE OVER IN ERN/SERN ZONES TO ALL SNOW BEFORE              
DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS COASTAL LOW BECOMES DOMINANT AND COLUMN COOLS                
SIGNIFICANTLY. WINDS A GRAVE CONCERN ESPECIALLY TO E-W RUNNING ROADS            
6/30/24/TOLL ROAD/TO IMPASSABLE COUNTY ROADS DRIFTED SHUT. MENTION              
OF NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW ALL BUT FAR                
SERN ZONES TONIGHT AND ENTIRE CWA BY SUNDAY WITH SERN ZONES PICKING             
UP ONE-HALF TO NEAR ONE FOOT OF SNOW WITH OVER 1-2 INCH/HOUR RATES              
OF DRY ENOUGH SNOW TO BLOW/DRIFT ON TOP OF FEW TENTHS CONGLOMERATION            
OF ZR/IP WITH NRLY WINDS TO 35 MPH. BAND OF HEAVIEST TOTAL SNOWS                
WHITE CO NE TO MARSHALL TO ELKHART TO BRANCH/HILLSDALE MI COUNTIES              
TO AROUND 15 INCHES.                                                            
LONG TERM...                                                                    
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE AN ACTIVE FLOW REGIME WITH            
NUMEROUS MID LEVEL IMPULSES TAKING AIM AT THE REGION. WATER VAPOR               
SATELLITE OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN VERIFIES NUMEROUS POTENT TROUGHS               
THAT WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE REGION. MID-LEVEL FLOW                  
CHANGE TO MORE ZONAL WEST-EAST FLOW WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT WARMER                
CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY...BRINGING TEMPS CLOSER TO OR JUST SLIGHTLY               
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REGION...AS THE MAIN NORTHERN STREAM STORM                 
TRACK SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN                
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD SAVE THE               
WEEKEND...AND HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TO THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z AND 00Z              
ECMWF.                                                                          
LOOK FOR A SLOW RECOVERY IN TEMPS THROUGH MID WEEK WITH EXPECTED                
SNOW COVER IN PLACE. CONTINUED TO OPT FOR COOL BELOW GUIDANCE                   
TEMPS...IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. RETAINED POP CHANCES THUR               
AND FRI. WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF              
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WARMER THERMAL             
PROFILES ARE STILL SUPPORTING RAIN. HOWEVER...WILL RETAIN SNOW                  
MENTION DUE TO POSSIBLE COOLER MODEL SOLUTIONS ONCE NEW SNOW FIELD              
IS ASSIMILATED...AS PER PREVIOUS FORECAST.                                      
SATURDAY...ANOTHER LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY BE POSSIBLE NEXT                      
WEEKEND...AS A DEEPER MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WESTERN                    
US...EVENTUALLY EJECTING OUT INTO THE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LATEST               
RUN OF THE ECMWF NO LONGER FAVORS PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND                   
SOUTHERN STREAMS...AND OPTS FOR A SLOWER/WEAKER SYSTEM OVER THE GULF            
COAST. THE GFS WITH SOME SUPPORT OF PREVIOUS ENSEMBLE RUNS DO FAVOR             
PHASING WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE INTENSE SFC LOW. THIS WOULD              
POSSIBLY SPELL MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE REGION.                           
HOWEVER...WITH SUCH A LARGE ENSEMBLE SPREAD/CURRENT POOR SAMPLING               
ISSUES NOTED OVER THE PACIFIC/AND LARGE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION                  
SPREADS...HAVE OPTED DRY FOR NOW. THIS PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE                   
MONITORED.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ SUNDAY FOR                  
     INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.                                    
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ077>081.                 
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ001-002-004-             
     005-015-016-024-025.                                                       
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ043-046.                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...MURPHY                                                             
LONG TERM...CHAMBERLAIN                                                         
UPDATE/AVIATION...SCHOTT                                                        
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL                                      
238 PM CST SAT DEC 15 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
THE LARGE WINTER STORMS IS TRACKING STRONGER...SLOWER...AND FARTHER             
NORTH THAN EARLIER DATA HAD INDICATED.  FORTUNATELY THE LOCAL                   
FORECAST HAD ANTICIPATED THIS TREND...AND SNOW AMOUNTS ARE FALLING              
INTO LINE WITH OUR ADVISORY WHICH COVERS THE SOUTHEAST 2/3RDS OF THE            
CWA. AS OF 1 PM...WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES HAVE BEEN REPORTED...AND             
THE DEFORMATION ZONE IS NOW IN PLACE OVER THE CWA AND IS SNOWING                
MODERATELY IN MANY LOCATIONS. SEVERAL INTENSE SNOW BANDS ARE MOVING             
NORTH AND PIVOTING NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND RUC DATA SHOWS                
THAT MAY CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 02Z OR SO.                                       
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...                                      
THE SNOW ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH THE WEST EXPIRING AT 9              
PM...AND THE EAST AT MIDNIGHT.  WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE VERY               
LIKELY...WITH SEVERAL BANDS OF 5 TO 6 POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG               
AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  TOWARDS MID EVENING...THE WIND              
SHOULD PICK UP TO 10 TO 20...WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH.  THIS COMBINED               
WITH THE VERY POWDERY SNOW WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD DRIFTING...AND                
LOW LEVEL BLOWING SNOW.  WE WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR THIS                 
POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL PASS A CONCERN ON TO THE NEXT                 
SHIFT AS IT MAY PREVENT RURAL ROADS FROM STAYING CLEARED OFF. TEMPS             
SHOULD DROP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION KICKS IN ACROSS FRESH              
SNOW.                                                                           
ERVIN                                                                           
.LONG TERM...TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY...                                       
MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE LONGER TERM ARE TEMPERATURES                        
THROUGHOUT...AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP MIDWEEK AND OVER               
THE WEEKEND.  IN WAKE OF THE CURRENT SRN STREAM UPPER LOW...PATTERN             
BECOMES MORE ZONAL AS LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE NERN STATES WHILE NEXT               
UPPER TROUGH DIGS IN ALONG THE W COAST.  NWLY FLOW TOMORROW...ALONG             
WITH FRESH SNOW...WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING TOO FAR...AND HAVE                
CONTINUED PREVIOUS SHIFT THINKING TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A CAT OR              
TWO.  TEMPS IN NEB/KS TODAY SUPPORT THIS AS WELL...WITH TEMPS STUCK             
IN THE MID-TEENS TO LOW 20S.  CWA ON MONDAY WILL BE PINCHED BETWEEN             
SFC RIDGE TO THE S WITH UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE...AND CLIPPER               
DIVING THROUGH THE NRN GT LAKES TO THE N.  BELIEVE CLIPPER WILL STAY            
WELL N...AND HAVE KEPT FCST DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH TUES WITH              
JUST SOME INCREASED CLOUDS IN THE NERN CWA EARLY MON.  ANOTHER                  
CLIPPER MOVING THROUGH THE NRN GT LAKES ON LATE TUES WILL DRAG A                
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA...PROVIDING A REINFORCING SHOT OF               
COLD AIR AS WELL AS SOME CLOUDS BUT LIKELY REMAINING DRY.  WOULD NOT            
RULE OUT NON-MEASURABLE FLURRIES...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS             
JUST YET.  850MB TEMPS DO MODERATE THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK...BUT WEAK            
SFC FLOW WILL BRING LITTLE RESPONSE...AND HAVE SIDED CLOSE TO COOLER            
GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE TEMPS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE LONG-TERM.                   
GFS/ECMWF/GEM INDICATE AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW            
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US...CROSSING THE CWA ON WED NIGHT/EARLY THURS.              
MODELS DO KEEP THE WAVE WEAK AND FAST-MOVING...AND AGREE WITH THE               
FASTER-MOVING/WEAKER SCENARIO WITH UPPER JET INFLUENCE MAINLY ZONAL             
BEHIND IT.  12Z ECMWF TRENDED SLIGHTLY SWD WITH SYSTEM FROM 00Z                 
RUN...AND AM LEANING TOWARD THIS SOLUTION.  850MB FLOW AHEAD OF THE             
SYSTEM WILL DRAG MOISTURE INTO THE MID-MS/OH RIVER VALLEYS...WITH               
PRECIP BLOSSOMING AS WAVE REACHES THAT REGION.  SYSTEM ALSO FORCES A            
WEAK SFC LOW TO MOVE ACROSS KS/MO INTO IL.  BELIEVE MODELS ARE NOT              
YET HANDLING THE SNOWPACK WELL...AND AM A LITTLE LEERY OF WHERE THE             
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP WITH THIS SYSTEM.  WILL LEAN TOWARD                 
COOLER TEMPS...WITH BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINING S OF THE CWA.  SHOULD             
SUB-FREEZING TEMPS GET LOCKED IN AT THE SFC...850MB WARM NOSE COULD             
BRING SOME FREEZING RAIN ON WED NIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN THE SERN                
CWA.  WOULD EXPECT LIGHTER PRECIP TOTALS WITH MOST MOISTURE FOCUSED             
S/SE OF THE CWA.  FOR NOW... HAVE MENTIONED SN/ZR MIX ON WED                    
NIGHT...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW ON THURS AS COLDER 850MB TEMPS SPILL IN            
BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE.  OTHER SCENARIO WOULD BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX                 
CHANGING TO SNOW IF SFC TEMPS DO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.                         
AFTER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH DURING THE DAY THURS...WILL AGAIN SEE A             
COUPLE OF QUIET DAYS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM.  ECMWF/GFS/ENSEMBLES            
INDICATE ANOTHER SWRN UPPER LOW DIGS IN BY FRI/EARLY SAT.  BELIEVE              
GFS IS TOO QUICK IN EJECTING THE UPPER LOW...AND SUSPECT BOTH MODELS            
ARE TENDING TO PUSH THE LOW TOO FAR SE AS IT EJECTS ACROSS THE                  
CENTRAL US.  WITH THAT TREND IN MIND...HAVE INSERTED CHC POPS FOR SN            
ON SAT/SAT NIGHT...THOUGH PRECIP TYPE COULD BE LESS THAN CERTAIN.               
STILL QUITE A BIT OF TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM DEVELOP...BUT WILL               
KEEP A CLOSE EYE AS IT COULD AFFECT HOLIDAY TRAVEL.                             
MAYES                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 00Z WEST AND 04Z            
EAST...WITH OCCASIONAL LOW CIGS UNDER 1000FT AND VSBY LESS THAN 1/2             
MILE. AFTER MIDNIGHT SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATUS AROUND 1500 FT                 
SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.                                     
ERVIN                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IA...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR CLINTON-JACKSON-              
     SCOTT.                                                                     
     SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR CEDAR-DES MOINES-            
     HENRY IA-IOWA-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-LEE-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-               
     VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.                                                      
IL...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-               
     HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-                    
     PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.                            
MO...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ERVIN/MAYES                                                                     
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                              
322 PM CST SAT DEC 15 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
21Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID AND UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR              
THE SNOW WAS OVER EASTERN KS CONTINUING TO PROPAGATE EAST.                      
DEFORMATION ZONE FROM THIS WAVE HAS ALLOWED LIGHT SNOW TO PERSIST               
ACROSS FAR EASTERN KS. MEANWHILE AT THE SFC ACROSS WESTERN KS VERY              
DRY AIR WAS FILLING IN.                                                         
CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ARE TEMPERATURES. THE NEW SNOW COVER            
AND CLEARING SKIES WILL SET UP AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING                     
SITUATION. BECAUSE OF THIS...HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS               
TONIGHT BY SEVERAL DEGREES. IN THE LOW SPOTS...EXPECT TO SEE MORNING            
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THERE IS ALSO A CONCERN FOR FOG TO                   
DEVELOP. BOTH THE NAM AND RUC SHOW SFC RH VALUES AT 100 PERCENT                 
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH A STRONG NOCTURNAL INVERSION                            
ANTICIPATED...THINK SOME PATCHY FOG COULD FORM IN THE LOW LYING                 
AREAS...ESPECIALLY AROUND RIVERS AND LAKES WHERE AND ADDITIONAL                 
MOISTURE SOURCE WILL AID IN DEVELOPMENT. MAIN DETRACTOR FROM FOG                
FORMATION IS THE WESTERLY WINDS AND DRY AIR ADVECTING IN. THINK THIS            
WILL PREVENT FOG FROM BEING WIDESPREAD. ALTHOUGH SKIES SHOULD BE                
MOSTLY SUNNY FOR SUNDAY...NEW SNOW ON THE GROUND WILL TAKE A LITTLE             
TIME TO MELT. HAVE AGAIN UNDERCUT THE MAV GUIDANCE. THIS UNDER                  
CUTTING IS MOST PRONOUNCED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHEAST KS            
WERE THE SNOW PACK IS DEEPER AND WHERE THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL             
HAVE A MUCH LONGER FETCH OF SNOW TO MOVE ACROSS. EAST CENTRAL                   
KS...WHERE THERE IS LESS SNOW...COULD BREAK THE FREEZING MARK BY MID            
AFTERNOON AND WENT CLOSER TO THE MAV NUMBERS HERE. OTHERWISE...                 
SNOWFALL SHOULD FOR THE MOST PART BE OVER WITH BY 00Z THIS EVENING.             
HAVE HELD ONTO SOME SMALL POPS ACROSS FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE               
FORECAST AREA FOR COLLABORATION. FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT FLURRIES              
AND WILL LET THE SNOW ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 4 PM -WOLTERS                          
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW                   
EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM                   
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK AND CWA WILL SEE A BREAK                
FROM THE WINTER PRECIPITATION FOR A FEW DAYS. SNOW COVER...                     
ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SHOULD             
LIMIT WARM UP INITIALLY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE                  
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST AS LEE TROF                 
DEVELOPS IN THE HIGH PLAINS. SURFACE WINDS SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO               
SOUTH BY MONDAY WHICH ADVECTS WARMER AIR INTO THE CWA.                          
SHORTWAVE TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS KANSAS WEDNESDAY AND                  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE             
AND EXPECT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA                     
WEDNESDAY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SURFACE TEMPERATURES             
ABOVE FREEZING DURING MUCH OF THIS EVENING...THEN FALLING BELOW                 
FREEZING AROUND 12Z COINCIDENT WITH MID LEVEL DRYING. EXPECT                    
PRECIPITATION TO BE RAIN INITIALLY THEN A POSSIBLE CHANGE TO SNOW OR            
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE ENDING. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH CHANCE              
OF RAIN OR SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.                                        
FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE NEXT              
TROF DIVES INTO THE WESTERN U.S.  GFS AND EUROPEAN BOTH IMPRESSIVE              
WITH THE STRENGTH OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM. HAVE INCLUDED POPS IN THE                
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTER                
WEATHER POSSIBLE THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY.                      
STARK                                                                           
.AVIATION...                                                                    
CONCERN TONIGHT IS WHETHER SOME DENSE FOG OR LIFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP             
IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM. ATTM AM THINKING THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER             
WILL DECOUPLE WITH A STRONG NOCTURNAL INVERSION SETTING UP DUE TO               
THE SNOW COVER. WITH SKIES ALREADY CLEARING FROM THE WEST...THIS                
SHOULD LEAD TO FOG FORMATION WITH A 1/2SM TO 1/4SM WITH FZFG NOT OUT            
OF THE QUESTION IN THE RIVER VALLEY. FOE WHICH IS 200FT HIGHER COULD            
SEE MORE MIXING OF DRY AIR AND VSBY MAY NOT BE AS LOW. EVENING SHIFT            
WILL NEED TO MONITOR. -WOLTERS                                                  
&&                                                                              
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
1229 PM CST SAT DEC 15 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
PERSISTENT COMMA HEAD/TROWAL PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS                 
SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS               
WILL RANGE FROM 2-5 INCHES...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POSSIBLY UP TO 6              
INCHES GIVEN THE DECENT FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND SOME                        
INSTABILITY (DUE TO PROXIMITY OF THE DRY SLOT). WILL THEREFORE                  
CONTINUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS.                
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING NORTHWEST OF THE TURNPIKE                          
SHORTLY...SO WILL LIKELY LET WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NEAR/ALONG                 
THE TURNPIKE EXPIRE AT 1 PM.                                                    
KLEINSASSER                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
18Z TAFS...ICT/HUT/CNU/RSL/SLN...LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL                    
CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH                 
LIGHT SNOW COMING TO AN END BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON                           
NEAR/ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE TURNPIKE. VISIBILITIES WILL BE                  
REDUCED TO LESS THAN 1 MILE AT TIMES IN THE HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS                 
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS. MVFR TO LOW VFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH              
THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT WILL EVENTUALLY                  
CLEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT.                                               
KLEINSASSER                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 AM CST SAT DEC 15 2007/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
UPDATED TO INCREASE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE 12-18Z TIME FRAME AS A             
BAND OF MODERATE SNOW HAS SET UP FROM NORTHERN KM COUNTY THROUGH                
MARION COUNTY. THIS BAND OF SNOW IS RELATED TO THE MAIN UPPER                   
CIRCULATION THAT IS CURRENTLY TRACKING EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS.            
CROSS-SECTIONS OFF OF THE RUC ARE SHOWING IMPRESSIVE LIFT IN THE                
DENDRITIC ZONE WITH SURPRISINGLY DECENT INSTABILITY ABOVE 700MB.                
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF A MODERATE SNOW BAND THAT                 
SHOULD SLIDE FAIRLY QUICKLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOCATIONS                 
AFFECTED BY THIS BAND SHOULD PICK UP AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES                   
THROUGH NOON.                                                                   
LAWSON                                                                          
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 AM CST SAT DEC 15 2007/                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
FOR 12Z TAFS...MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE LOW CIGS AND VIS                   
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SNOW.                                                       
THE ONLY SITES WHERE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE             
KCNU AND KSLN. KSLN WOULD BE MORE FOR THE SHORT TERM LOWER VIS DUE              
TO A BAND OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL MOVING OVER THEM. HOWEVER KCNU WILL BE            
BOUNCING IN AND OUT OF IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE SNOW            
SHOWERS LINGER LONGER OVER SE KS. WHILE LOW CLOUDS WILL BLANKET ALL             
SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 21Z...CONFIDENCE WAS ONLY HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT             
IFR CIGS IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS(WITH THE EXCEPTION            
OF KCNU) WITH MVFR CIGS THE PREDOMINATE CLOUD HEIGHT. WHILE LIGHT               
SNOW WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS THROUGH AT                 
LEAST NOON...IT SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND ONLY HAVE A MINIMAL AFFECT              
ON VIS.                                                                         
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CST SAT DEC 15 2007/                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
06Z TAFS...DRY SLOT IS MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AT TAF                  
ISSUANCE TIME...AND WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION LIGHT OR STOP IT                    
ALTOGETHER FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT. SOUTHEAST KANSAS COULD SEE SOME                
INTERMITTENT FREEZING RAIN...BUT WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW BY                    
MORNING. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE BULK OF THE                
TAF PERIOD. SNOW WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AGAIN                  
SATURDAY MORNING AND WILL END DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS FROM THE               
WEST.                                                                           
SCHRECK                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    26  12  36  17 / 100   0   0   0                                
HUTCHINSON      25   9  34  17 / 100   0   0   0                                
NEWTON          25  10  33  18 / 100   0   0   0                                
ELDORADO        25  11  34  18 / 100  10   0   0                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   28  14  37  18 / 100   0   0   0                                
RUSSELL         25   5  33  13 / 100   0   0   0                                
GREAT BEND      25   7  34  15 / 100   0   0   0                                
SALINA          26   8  34  12 / 100   0   0   0                                
MCPHERSON       25   9  33  16 / 100   0   0   0                                
COFFEYVILLE     30  15  38  19 / 100  10   0   0                                
CHANUTE         27  13  35  16 / 100  10   0   0                                
IOLA            25  12  34  16 / 100  10   0   0                                
PARSONS-KPPF    30  14  37  19 / 100  10   0   0                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ068-               
083-091-092.                                                                    
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ053-               
069>072-093>096-098>100.                                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
744 AM CST SAT DEC 15 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED TO INCREASE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE 12-18Z TIME FRAME AS A             
BAND OF MODERATE SNOW HAS SET UP FROM NORTHERN KM COUNTY THROUGH                
MARION COUNTY. THIS BAND OF SNOW IS RELATED TO THE MAIN UPPER                   
CIRCULATION THAT IS CURRENTLY TRACKING EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS.            
CROSS-SECTIONS OFF OF THE RUC ARE SHOWING IMPRESSIVE LIFT IN THE                
DENDRITIC ZONE WITH SURPRISINGLY DECENT INSTABILITY ABOVE 700MB.                
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF A MODERATE SNOW BAND THAT                 
SHOULD SLIDE FAIRLY QUICKLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOCATIONS                 
AFFECTED BY THIS BAND SHOULD PICK UP AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES                   
THROUGH NOON.                                                                   
LAWSON                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 AM CST SAT DEC 15 2007/                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
FOR 12Z TAFS...MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE LOW CIGS AND VIS                   
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SNOW.                                                       
THE ONLY SITES WHERE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE             
KCNU AND KSLN. KSLN WOULD BE MORE FOR THE SHORT TERM LOWER VIS DUE              
TO A BAND OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL MOVING OVER THEM. HOWEVER KCNU WILL BE            
BOUNCING IN AND OUT OF IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE SNOW            
SHOWERS LINGER LONGER OVER SE KS. WHILE LOW CLOUDS WILL BLANKET ALL             
SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 21Z...CONFIDENCE WAS ONLY HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT             
IFR CIGS IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS(WITH THE EXCEPTION            
OF KCNU) WITH MVFR CIGS THE PREDOMINATE CLOUD HEIGHT. WHILE LIGHT               
SNOW WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS THROUGH AT                 
LEAST NOON...IT SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND ONLY HAVE A MINIMAL AFFECT              
ON VIS.                                                                         
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CST SAT DEC 15 2007/                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
06Z TAFS...DRY SLOT IS MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AT TAF                  
ISSUANCE TIME...AND WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION LIGHT OR STOP IT                    
ALTOGETHER FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT. SOUTHEAST KANSAS COULD SEE SOME                
INTERMITTENT FREEZING RAIN...BUT WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW BY                    
MORNING. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE BULK OF THE                
TAF PERIOD. SNOW WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AGAIN                  
SATURDAY MORNING AND WILL END DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS FROM THE               
WEST.                                                                           
SCHRECK                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    27  12  36  17 / 100   0   0   0                                
HUTCHINSON      27   9  34  17 /  90   0   0   0                                
NEWTON          26  10  33  18 /  90   0   0   0                                
ELDORADO        27  11  34  18 /  80  10   0   0                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   29  14  37  18 /  90   0   0   0                                
RUSSELL         29   5  33  13 /  60   0   0   0                                
GREAT BEND      28   7  34  15 /  60   0   0   0                                
SALINA          29   8  34  12 /  90   0   0   0                                
MCPHERSON       28   9  33  16 /  90   0   0   0                                
COFFEYVILLE     32  15  38  19 / 100  10   0   0                                
CHANUTE         30  13  35  16 / 100  10   0   0                                
IOLA            27  12  34  16 / 100  10   0   0                                
PARSONS-KPPF    32  14  37  19 / 100  10   0   0                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ071-               
072-094>096-098>100.                                                            
HEAVY SNOW WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR KSZ032-033-047>052-                 
067-068-082.                                                                    
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR KSZ053-069-070-                
083-091>093.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                             
835 PM CST SUN DEC 16 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...TEMPS ARE FALLING OFF RATHER QUICKLY OVER THE SNOW COVERED            
GROUND IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. FORECAST UPDATED TO REFLECT THE                    
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WHERE FRESH SNOW COVER...CLEAR                    
SKY...AND CALM WINDS EXIST. 21Z RUC CAPTURED THE STRONG TEMP                    
GRADIENT ALONG THE EDGE OF THE SNOW COVER...BUT IT APPEARS TO GO                
OVERBOARD WITH ITS 2 METER TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ALONG                     
INTERSTATE 64 BY 09Z. GENERALLY ADDED 10 DEGREES TO THE RUC IN THE              
FAR NORTH. NEAR SATURATED SURFACE LAYER SUGGESTS SOME FOG OR FROST              
WILL OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY GROUND                     
FROST...EVIDENCED AS BLACK ICE ON ROADWAYS...EXISTS OVER THE SNOW               
COVERED AREAS.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /ISSUED 117 PM CST SUN DEC 16 2007/...                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CLOUDS CONTINUED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.                  
SNOW LINE WAS SEEN FROM ROUGHLY JACKSON MISSOURI TO HARRISBURG                  
ILLINOIS TO PETERSBURG INDIANA. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE                  
ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT. WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER AND WINDS BECOMING               
LIGHT EXPECT COLD TEMPS. WILL USE COLDEST GFS MOS AS A BASELINE                 
AND THEN UNDERCUT THOSE VALUES BY 3-5 DEGREES ACROSS AREAS WITH                 
LINGERING SNOW COVER.                                                           
A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN IS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH WEAK SW RETURN FLOW                
EXPECTED. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER                  
THAN WHAT WE HAVE SO FAR TODAY. QUIET WX IS EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY               
NIGHT. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SW FLOW IS EXPECTED TUE WITH INCREASED               
CLOUD COVER. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING SCANT QPF WITH A                  
COUPLE OF VERY SUBTLE WAVES TUE-WED. RIGHT NOW...GUIDANCE POPS ARE              
RATHER LOW...AND THE MODELS AREN/T PRODUCING MUCH. SO WILL HOLD                 
ON INTRODUCING ANY SLIGHT CHC POPS. SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO               
EVENTUALLY ADD SOME POPS WITH TIME.                                             
THE FLOW PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE QUASI-ZONAL AND RELATIVELY            
PROGRESSIVE. THE MODELS FORECAST THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET WILL            
REMAIN ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION (H3 80-100KT) WITH              
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES AND ASSOCIATED MAXIMA MOVING ACROSS THE MID            
CONUS. THE FIRST WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE FA WEDNESDAY               
NIGHT PER A CONSENSUS OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS...WHICH ARE IN FAIR              
AGREEMENT. THE GFS MAY BE A TAD OVERDONE WITH RESPECT TO THE                    
SHARPNESS OF THE TROF. NEVER THE LESS...HAVE RAISED POPS WEDNESDAY              
NIGHT AND KEPT WITH A SMALL THUNDER CHANCE DUE TO FORECAST                      
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES / ELEVATED INSTABILITY. ALSO KEPT TEMPS                  
STEADY AND RAISED DEW POINTS IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. THE SYSTEM             
SHOULD PASS EAST ON THURSDAY WITH DIMINISHING POPS FROM WEST TO EAST.           
SOUNDINGS AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE SUGGEST ALL LIQUID PRECIP.              
QUIET WX IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH WEAK HIGH                  
PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT THE RULE. BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT...THE               
MODELS START TO DIVERGE WITH RESPECT TO THEIR HANDLING OF A STRONGER            
UPPER TROF / LOW COMING EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.            
THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS SHOWING THE GREATEST INCONSISTENCY FROM                  
RUN-TO-RUN SINCE 00Z WHILE A BLEND OF THE NCEP ENSEMBLE / ECMWF OPS             
ARE MORE CONSISTENT AND IN BETTER AGREEMENT. THEREFORE...WILL FOLLOW            
A BLEND OF THE LATTER SOLUTIONS...WHICH IS NOT TOO FAR OFF HPC/S                
DEPICTION...ALTHOUGH A TAD SLOWER. WILL INTRODUCE SMALL CHANCE POPS             
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN UP POPS FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE             
UPPER SYSTEM AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW TRACK NE TOWARD THE OHIO                 
VALLEY REGION. WILL MENTION ALL RAIN THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...THEN                  
MENTION A R-/S- POSSIBILITY SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WEST 1/2 OF               
THE FA AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. SUNDAY             
LOOKS LIKE A POTENTIALLY CHILLY DAY WITH A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES OR            
BRIEF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY EARLY ON. CONFIDENCE             
IS NOT TOO HIGH FOR SUNDAY. BUT THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT AMONGST THE             
MODELS WITH RESPECT TO THIS POSSIBILITY.                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
CLOUDS HAVE STEADILY MOVED EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND AT THE SAME               
TIME...BECOMING MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. HAD TO MENTION SOME BKN               
CIGS IN KPAH...KOWB AND KEVV TODAY BUT EXPECT SKIES TO BE PRETTY                
MUCH SKC OR FEW BY SUNSET. WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN SUBSIDING AS THE LOW            
PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES.                  
THEREFORE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST             
TO EAST...AND BECOME LIGHT (5-6 KTS) MOST EVERYWHERE BY 00Z OR 01Z.             
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL ON MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE              
DOMINATING.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...MY                                                                     
PREVIOUS...CN                                                                   
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
1204 PM EST SUN DEC 16 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED TO AVIATION SECTION ONLY AT THIS TIME.                                  
.UPDATE (ISSUED 1049 AM EST SUN)...                                             
SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEAST OHIO CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE                    
NORTHEAST THIS MORNING WITH FLOW TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOW               
SHIFTING MORE TOWARD THE WEST AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. THIS IS                    
LIMITING ANY AFFECTS OF LAKE MICHIGAN FOR THE CWA...WITH ANY LAKE               
ENHANCED PRECIPITATION ALREADY SHIFTING OFF INTO SOUTHWEST OHIO. IN             
ADDITION...UPSLOPE SHOWERS THAT APPEAR ON RADAR ARE VERY LIGHT AND              
NOT ACCUMULATING MUCH OTHER THAN A TENTH HERE AND THERE ON GRASSY               
SURFACES PER CONVERSATIONS WITH LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND VIEWING OF            
LOCAL WEB CAMERAS. WITH THE INTENSITY OF THE ONGOING UPSLOPE                    
ACTIVITY REMAINING THE SAME AND DIMINISHING OVER THE COURSE OF THE              
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NO            
LONGER A THREAT AND AM CANCELLING THE REMAINDER OF THE SNOW ADVISORY            
BY 11AM EST. WILL BACK OFF ON POPS FOR ALL AREAS TODAY AND TREND THE            
NORTHEASTERN ZONES DOWNWARD THIS AFTERNOON.                                     
WINDS STILL GUSTING AND SHOULD PICK UP A LITTLE MORE IN THE NEXT                
SEVERAL HOURS WITH VALUES HOVERING AROUND ADVISORY CRITERIA                     
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.  WILL REEVALUATE THE WIND ADVISORY            
END TIME WITH THE AFTERNOON ROUTINE FORECAST ISSUANCE.                          
.UPDATE (ISSUED AT 855 AM SUN DEC 16)...                                        
SNOW NOT MATERIALIZING AS EXPECTED AND AM GOING TO BEGIN CANCELLING             
PORTIONS OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. AM LEAVING IN THE COUNTIES             
IN A LINE FROM MADISON COUNTY KENTUCKY NORTHWEST THROUGH CLARK AND              
SCOTT COUNTIES IN INDIANA...REMOVING ALL POINTS SOUTH AND WEST OF               
THERE INCLUDING LOUISVILLE. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY OCCUR FROM TIME TO              
TIME IN THE AREAS BEING REMOVED FROM THE ADVISORY...BUT A DUSTING               
WOULD LIKELY BE THE ONLY ACCUMULATION.                                          
CONCERNING THE AREAS BEING LEFT IN THE ADVISORY...STRONG WAVE ENERGY            
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST NOW MOVING OVER THE            
WESTERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN RESULTING IN SOME SNOW ENHANCEMENT                
OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS AREA OF ENHANCED SHOWERS COULD CLIP THE              
NORTHEAST ZONES AND COMBINE WITH FAVORABLE NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW               
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS TO CREATE ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR             
MORE AND WILL LEAVE ADVISORY UP FOR A WHILE UNTIL THESE SHOWERS                 
EVOLVE A LITTLE.                                                                
REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON TRACK...INCLUDING WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 30             
MPH CONTINUING AND SOME INCREASE IN THOSE GUSTS TO OVER 40 MPH                  
EXPECTED STILL BY LATE THIS MORNING.                                            
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...                                              
830Z METAR OBSERVATIONS SHOWING SFC LOW NEAR THE IN/OH/KY BORDER.               
ASSOCIATED WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW                  
OVER IL STRETCHING INTO WRN IN/KY. THIS MOISTURE IS MOSTLY IN THE               
FORM OF SNOW AS COLD AIR IS QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE AREA.                       
EXPECT CURRENT LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE OVER CWA TO QUICKLY                       
TRANSITION TO SNOW IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SUSPECT THAT                    
PRECIP HAS ALREADY MADE THIS TRANSITION IN DUBOIS AND ORANGE                    
COUNTIES IN INDIANA. RUC40 SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS                  
TRANSITION FOLLOWING 1000-700MB THICKNESS VALUE OF 2840. BY THIS                
GUIDANCE...PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL SNOW BY 12Z ACROSS ENTIRE CWA.                  
RH VALUES OF THE GFS AND ETA DOING A PRETTY GOOD JOB TRACKING                   
PRECIP FIELD. BEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC FORCING TO                  
MOVE NE ALONG THE OHIO RIVER THIS MORNING...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT              
OVER THE BLUEGRASS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH AIR COLUMN COLD                   
ENOUGH FOR AN ALL SNOW EVENT...WENT WITH A SNOW ADVISORY NORTH OF               
A LINE FROM OHIO COUNTY TO NELSON COUNTY TO MADISON COUNTY KY.                  
THERE MAY BE A TRANSITION OF ICE PELLETS FOR A BRIEF TIME DURING                
THE PRECIP CHANGE OVER...BUT MOSTLY A SNOW EVENT. EXPECT GENERAL                
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ALONG NORTH OF THE OH                       
RIVER...1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE REST OF THE ADVISORY AREA...AND                    
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KY. PRECIP SHOULD                  
DECREASE IN INTENSITY FROM SW TO NE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING               
FLURRIES POSSIBLE TONIGHT.                                                      
THE OTHER MAIN ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM IS STRONG WINDS CAUSED BY                
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF SFC LOW. BUFKIT              
DATA INDICATING 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WHICH MEET                 
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME LOCATIONS OVER FA ALREADY GUSTING TO               
AROUND 40 MPH SO WILL START THE WIND ADY WITH THE 4AM FORECAST                  
PACKAGE AND RUN IT THROUGH 0Z TONIGHT. EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS               
THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL                
BE CLOSER TO FA. STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS                  
THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON WILL MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS                
SO MOTORISTS SHOULD BE CAUTIOUS.                                                
AS FOR TEMPS...THEY SHOULD SLOWLY FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY FROM THE              
LOW 30S INTO THE UPPER 20S. AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR SOMEWHAT                    
TONIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING AND COLD AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF LOW              
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DIP INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW             
20S.                                                                            
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                         
LOOKING AG THE AO AND PNA TELECONNECTIONS...NOTHING DEFINITIVE                  
TO GO WITH. THE ENSEMBLE DATA AND THE ECMWF/GFS MODELS INDICATE                 
A SERIES OF TROUGHS BEING SPUN OFF BY THE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY               
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. THESE SHORT WAVES               
THEN MOVING GENERALLY EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN U.S.. NO                   
REALLY MAJOR COLD OUTBREAK IN SIGHT. MEAN 500 MB HEIGHTS THIS PERIOD            
RELATIVELY WARM. COUPLE THIS WITH A MORE ZONAL WEST TO EAST STORM               
TRACK...THIS WOULD INDICATE TEMPS TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LONG            
TERM PERIOD AFTER TUESDAY. ALSO WITH EACH TROUGH WE HAVE THE RISK OF            
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT NOT MUCH CHANCE OF ANY FROZEN PRECIP.                  
MADE SOME CONSISTENCY AND SMOOTHING ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT                  
LONG TERM PACKAGE BUT NOTHING REALLY MAJOR.                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (18Z TAFS)...                                                         
MVFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE DURING THE FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD                
BEFORE SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.              
KSDF SHOULD SEE CEILINGS IMPROVE BY 21Z OR SO WITH KLEX AND KBWG                
SEEING MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH AROUND 03Z. SOME MINOR REDUCTIONS IN               
VISIBILITY MAY OCCUR AT TIMES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA IN LIGHT SNOW              
SHOWERS UNTIL SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT...BUT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY               
WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST.                                                       
GUSTY SURFACE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO                   
PERSIST AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF                   
PERIOD...WITH DECREASING WIND SPEEDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BEGINNING              
AROUND 20Z OR SO AT KBWG AND AFTER 23Z AT KSDF AND KLEX.                        
SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT THOUGH A               
LOW STRATUS DECK SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH WESTERN AND NORTHERN                  
KENTUCKY AFTER 12Z. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THIS DECK SHOULD SLOWLY             
MOVE BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z...BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AND COULD MOVE IN            
SOONER OR JUST AFTER 18Z.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7PM EST / 6PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ALL OF              
     CENTRAL KENTUCKY.                                                          
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7PM EST / 6PM CST FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL             
     INDIANA.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATES......MACZKO                                                             
SHORT TERM...AML                                                                
LONG TERM....AB                                                                 
AVIATION.....AML                                                                
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
1049 AM EST SUN DEC 16 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEAST OHIO CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE                    
NORTHEAST THIS MORNING WITH FLOW TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOW               
SHIFTING MORE TOWARD THE WEST AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. THIS IS                    
LIMITING ANY AFFECTS OF LAKE MICHIGAN FOR THE CWA...WITH ANY LAKE               
ENHANCED PRECIPITATION ALREADY SHIFTING OFF INTO SOUTHWEST OHIO. IN             
ADDITION...UPSLOPE SHOWERS THAT APPEAR ON RADAR ARE VERY LIGHT AND              
NOT ACCUMULATING MUCH OTHER THAN A TENTH HERE AND THERE ON GRASSY               
SURFACES PER CONVERSATIONS WITH LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND VIEWING OF            
LOCAL WEB CAMERAS. WITH THE INTENSITY OF THE ONGOING UPSLOPE                    
ACTIVITY REMAINING THE SAME AND DIMINISHING OVER THE COURSE OF THE              
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NO            
LONGER A THREAT AND AM CANCELLING THE REMAINDER OF THE SNOW ADVISORY            
BY 11AM EST. WILL BACK OFF ON POPS FOR ALL AREAS TODAY AND TREND THE            
NORTHEASTERN ZONES DOWNWARD THIS AFTERNOON.                                     
WINDS STILL GUSTING AND SHOULD PICK UP A LITTLE MORE IN THE NEXT                
SEVERAL HOURS WITH VALUES HOVERING AROUND ADVISORY CRITERIA                     
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.  WILL REEVALUATE THE WIND ADVISORY            
END TIME WITH THE AFTERNOON ROUTINE FORECAST ISSUANCE.                          
.UPDATE (ISSUED AT 855 AM SUN DEC 16)...                                        
SNOW NOT MATERIALIZING AS EXPECTED AND AM GOING TO BEGIN CANCELLING             
PORTIONS OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. AM LEAVING IN THE COUNTIES             
IN A LINE FROM MADISON COUNTY KENTUCKY NORTHWEST THROUGH CLARK AND              
SCOTT COUNTIES IN INDIANA...REMOVING ALL POINTS SOUTH AND WEST OF               
THERE INCLUDING LOUISVILLE. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY OCCUR FROM TIME TO              
TIME IN THE AREAS BEING REMOVED FROM THE ADVISORY...BUT A DUSTING               
WOULD LIKELY BE THE ONLY ACCUMULATION.                                          
CONCERNING THE AREAS BEING LEFT IN THE ADVISORY...STRONG WAVE ENERGY            
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST NOW MOVING OVER THE            
WESTERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN RESULTING IN SOME SNOW ENHANCEMENT                
OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS AREA OF ENHANCED SHOWERS COULD CLIP THE              
NORTHEAST ZONES AND COMBINE WITH FAVORABLE NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW               
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS TO CREATE ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR             
MORE AND WILL LEAVE ADVISORY UP FOR A WHILE UNTIL THESE SHOWERS                 
EVOLVE A LITTLE.                                                                
REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON TRACK...INCLUDING WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 30             
MPH CONTINUING AND SOME INCREASE IN THOSE GUSTS TO OVER 40 MPH                  
EXPECTED STILL BY LATE THIS MORNING.                                            
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...                                              
830Z METAR OBSERVATIONS SHOWING SFC LOW NEAR THE IN/OH/KY BORDER.               
ASSOCIATED WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW                  
OVER IL STRETCHING INTO WRN IN/KY. THIS MOISTURE IS MOSTLY IN THE               
FORM OF SNOW AS COLD AIR IS QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE AREA.                       
EXPECT CURRENT LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE OVER CWA TO QUICKLY                       
TRANSITION TO SNOW IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SUSPECT THAT                    
PRECIP HAS ALREADY MADE THIS TRANSITION IN DUBOIS AND ORANGE                    
COUNTIES IN INDIANA. RUC40 SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS                  
TRANSITION FOLLOWING 1000-700MB THICKNESS VALUE OF 2840. BY THIS                
GUIDANCE...PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL SNOW BY 12Z ACROSS ENTIRE CWA.                  
RH VALUES OF THE GFS AND ETA DOING A PRETTY GOOD JOB TRACKING                   
PRECIP FIELD. BEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC FORCING TO                  
MOVE NE ALONG THE OHIO RIVER THIS MORNING...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT              
OVER THE BLUEGRASS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH AIR COLUMN COLD                   
ENOUGH FOR AN ALL SNOW EVENT...WENT WITH A SNOW ADVISORY NORTH OF               
A LINE FROM OHIO COUNTY TO NELSON COUNTY TO MADISON COUNTY KY.                  
THERE MAY BE A TRANSITION OF ICE PELLETS FOR A BRIEF TIME DURING                
THE PRECIP CHANGE OVER...BUT MOSTLY A SNOW EVENT. EXPECT GENERAL                
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ALONG NORTH OF THE OH                       
RIVER...1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE REST OF THE ADVISORY AREA...AND                    
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KY. PRECIP SHOULD                  
DECREASE IN INTENSITY FROM SW TO NE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING               
FLURRIES POSSIBLE TONIGHT.                                                      
THE OTHER MAIN ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM IS STRONG WINDS CAUSED BY                
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF SFC LOW. BUFKIT              
DATA INDICATING 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WHICH MEET                 
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME LOCATIONS OVER FA ALREADY GUSTING TO               
AROUND 40 MPH SO WILL START THE WIND ADY WITH THE 4AM FORECAST                  
PACKAGE AND RUN IT THROUGH 0Z TONIGHT. EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS               
THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL                
BE CLOSER TO FA. STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS                  
THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON WILL MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS                
SO MOTORISTS SHOULD BE CAUTIOUS.                                                
AS FOR TEMPS...THEY SHOULD SLOWLY FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY FROM THE              
LOW 30S INTO THE UPPER 20S. AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR SOMEWHAT                    
TONIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING AND COLD AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF LOW              
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DIP INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW             
20S.                                                                            
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                         
LOOKING AG THE AO AND PNA TELECONNECTIONS...NOTHING DEFINITIVE                  
TO GO WITH. THE ENSEMBLE DATA AND THE ECMWF/GFS MODELS INDICATE                 
A SERIES OF TROUGHS BEING SPUN OFF BY THE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY               
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. THESE SHORT WAVES               
THEN MOVING GENERALLY EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN U.S.. NO                   
REALLY MAJOR COLD OUTBREAK IN SIGHT. MEAN 500 MB HEIGHTS THIS PERIOD            
RELATIVELY WARM. COUPLE THIS WITH A MORE ZONAL WEST TO EAST STORM               
TRACK...THIS WOULD INDICATE TEMPS TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LONG            
TERM PERIOD AFTER TUESDAY. ALSO WITH EACH TROUGH WE HAVE THE RISK OF            
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT NOT MUCH CHANCE OF ANY FROZEN PRECIP.                  
MADE SOME CONSISTENCY AND SMOOTHING ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT                  
LONG TERM PACKAGE BUT NOTHING REALLY MAJOR.                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (12Z TAFS)...                                                         
LIGHT SNOW OVER SDF AND LEX TERMINALS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE                
THROUGH THE EARLIER AFTERNOON HOURS.  THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING               
FLURRIES AFTER 17-18Z...BUT WILL NOT WARRANT A TAF MENTION FOR NOW.             
BWG LOOKS TO BE CLEAR OF THESE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING AS               
PRECIP ON THE BACK SIDE OF SFC LOW REMAINS N OF THIS TERMINAL. MVFR             
VSBYS AND CIGS THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FIRST AT BWG AND                
THEN AT SDF AND LEX THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.  WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN            
TODAY TOO AS GUSTS HAVE ALREADY REACHED 35 TO 40 MPH THIS MORNING AT            
THE TAF SITES.  EXPECT THESE STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE               
AFTERNOON UNDER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.  NEXT POTENTIAL PROBLEM                
COULD BE SOME STRATUS WORKING IN TOWARD TOMORROW MORNING AND WILL               
NEED TO INVESTIGATE THIS FOR LATER TAF ISSUANCES TODAY.                         
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7PM EST / 6PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ALL OF              
     CENTRAL KENTUCKY.                                                          
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7PM EST / 6PM CST FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL             
     INDIANA.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATES......MACZKO                                                             
SHORT TERM...AML                                                                
LONG TERM....AB                                                                 
AVIATION.....AML                                                                
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
855 AM EST SUN DEC 16 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SNOW NOT MATERIALIZING AS EXPECTED AND AM GOING TO BEGIN CANCELLING             
PORTIONS OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. AM LEAVING IN THE COUNTIES             
IN A LINE FROM MADISON COUNTY KENTUCKY NORTHWEST THROUGH CLARK AND              
SCOTT COUNTIES IN INDIANA...REMOVING ALL POINTS SOUTH AND WEST OF               
THERE INCLUDING LOUISVILLE. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY OCCUR FROM TIME TO              
TIME IN THE AREAS BEING REMOVED FROM THE ADVISORY...BUT A DUSTING               
WOULD LIKELY BE THE ONLY ACCUMULATION.                                          
CONCERNING THE AREAS BEING LEFT IN THE ADVISORY...STRONG WAVE ENERGY            
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST NOW MOVING OVER THE            
WESTERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN RESULTING IN SOME SNOW ENHANCEMENT                
OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS AREA OF ENHANCED SHOWERS COULD CLIP THE              
NORTHEAST ZONES AND COMBINE WITH FAVORABLE NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW               
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS TO CREATE ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR             
MORE AND WILL LEAVE ADVISORY UP FOR A WHILE UNTIL THESE SHOWERS                 
EVOLVE A LITTLE.                                                                
REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON TRACK...INCLUDING WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 30             
MPH CONTINUING AND SOME INCREASE IN THOSE GUSTS TO OVER 40 MPH                  
EXPECTED STILL BY LATE THIS MORNING.                                            
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...                                              
830Z METAR OBSERVATIONS SHOWING SFC LOW NEAR THE IN/OH/KY BORDER.               
ASSOCIATED WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW                  
OVER IL STRETCHING INTO WRN IN/KY. THIS MOISTURE IS MOSTLY IN THE               
FORM OF SNOW AS COLD AIR IS QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE AREA.                       
EXPECT CURRENT LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE OVER CWA TO QUICKLY                       
TRANSITION TO SNOW IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SUSPECT THAT                    
PRECIP HAS ALREADY MADE THIS TRANSITION IN DUBOIS AND ORANGE                    
COUNTIES IN INDIANA. RUC40 SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS                  
TRANSITION FOLLOWING 1000-700MB THICKNESS VALUE OF 2840. BY THIS                
GUIDANCE...PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL SNOW BY 12Z ACROSS ENTIRE CWA.                  
RH VALUES OF THE GFS AND ETA DOING A PRETTY GOOD JOB TRACKING                   
PRECIP FIELD. BEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC FORCING TO                  
MOVE NE ALONG THE OHIO RIVER THIS MORNING...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT              
OVER THE BLUEGRASS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH AIR COLUMN COLD                   
ENOUGH FOR AN ALL SNOW EVENT...WENT WITH A SNOW ADVISORY NORTH OF               
A LINE FROM OHIO COUNTY TO NELSON COUNTY TO MADISON COUNTY KY.                  
THERE MAY BE A TRANSITION OF ICE PELLETS FOR A BRIEF TIME DURING                
THE PRECIP CHANGE OVER...BUT MOSTLY A SNOW EVENT. EXPECT GENERAL                
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ALONG NORTH OF THE OH                       
RIVER...1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE REST OF THE ADVISORY AREA...AND                    
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KY. PRECIP SHOULD                  
DECREASE IN INTENSITY FROM SW TO NE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING               
FLURRIES POSSIBLE TONIGHT.                                                      
THE OTHER MAIN ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM IS STRONG WINDS CAUSED BY                
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF SFC LOW. BUFKIT              
DATA INDICATING 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WHICH MEET                 
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME LOCATIONS OVER FA ALREADY GUSTING TO               
AROUND 40 MPH SO WILL START THE WIND ADY WITH THE 4AM FORECAST                  
PACKAGE AND RUN IT THROUGH 0Z TONIGHT. EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS               
THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL                
BE CLOSER TO FA. STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS                  
THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON WILL MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS                
SO MOTORISTS SHOULD BE CAUTIOUS.                                                
AS FOR TEMPS...THEY SHOULD SLOWLY FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY FROM THE              
LOW 30S INTO THE UPPER 20S. AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR SOMEWHAT                    
TONIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING AND COLD AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF LOW              
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DIP INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW             
20S.                                                                            
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                         
LOOKING AG THE AO AND PNA TELECONNECTIONS...NOTHING DEFINITIVE                  
TO GO WITH. THE ENSEMBLE DATA AND THE ECMWF/GFS MODELS INDICATE                 
A SERIES OF TROUGHS BEING SPUN OFF BY THE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY               
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. THESE SHORT WAVES               
THEN MOVING GENERALLY EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN U.S.. NO                   
REALLY MAJOR COLD OUTBREAK IN SIGHT. MEAN 500 MB HEIGHTS THIS PERIOD            
RELATIVELY WARM. COUPLE THIS WITH A MORE ZONAL WEST TO EAST STORM               
TRACK...THIS WOULD INDICATE TEMPS TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LONG            
TERM PERIOD AFTER TUESDAY. ALSO WITH EACH TROUGH WE HAVE THE RISK OF            
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT NOT MUCH CHANCE OF ANY FROZEN PRECIP.                  
MADE SOME CONSISTENCY AND SMOOTHING ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT                  
LONG TERM PACKAGE BUT NOTHING REALLY MAJOR.                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (12Z TAFS)...                                                         
LIGHT SNOW OVER SDF AND LEX TERMINALS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE                
THROUGH THE EARLIER AFTERNOON HOURS.  THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING               
FLURRIES AFTER 17-18Z...BUT WILL NOT WARRANT A TAF MENTION FOR NOW.             
BWG LOOKS TO BE CLEAR OF THESE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING AS               
PRECIP ON THE BACK SIDE OF SFC LOW REMAINS N OF THIS TERMINAL. MVFR             
VSBYS AND CIGS THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FIRST AT BWG AND                
THEN AT SDF AND LEX THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.  WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN            
TODAY TOO AS GUSTS HAVE ALREADY REACHED 35 TO 40 MPH THIS MORNING AT            
THE TAF SITES.  EXPECT THESE STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE               
AFTERNOON UNDER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.  NEXT POTENTIAL PROBLEM                
COULD BE SOME STRATUS WORKING IN TOWARD TOMORROW MORNING AND WILL               
NEED TO INVESTIGATE THIS FOR LATER TAF ISSUANCES TODAY.                         
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7PM EST / 6PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ALL OF              
     CENTRAL KENTUCKY.                                                          
     SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL                       
     KENTUCKY.                                                                  
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7PM EST / 6PM CST FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL             
     INDIANA.                                                                   
     SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1PM EST FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL                  
     INDIANA.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE.......MACZKO                                                             
SHORT TERM...AML                                                                
LONG TERM....AB                                                                 
AVIATION.....AML                                                                
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
621 AM EST SUN DEC 16 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT).                                                
830Z METAR OBSERVATIONS SHOWING SFC LOW NEAR THE IN/OH/KY BORDER.               
ASSOCIATED WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW                  
OVER IL STRETCHING INTO WRN IN/KY. THIS MOISTURE IS MOSTLY IN THE               
FORM OF SNOW AS COLD AIR IS QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE AREA.                       
EXPECT CURRENT LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE OVER CWA TO QUICKLY                       
TRANSITION TO SNOW IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SUSPECT THAT                    
PRECIP HAS ALREADY MADE THIS TRANSITION IN DUBOIS AND ORANGE                    
COUNTIES IN INDIANA. RUC40 SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS                  
TRANSITION FOLLOWING 1000-700MB THICKNESS VALUE OF 2840. BY THIS                
GUIDANCE...PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL SNOW BY 12Z ACROSS ENTIRE CWA.                  
RH VALUES OF THE GFS AND ETA DOING A PRETTY GOOD JOB TRACKING                   
PRECIP FIELD. BEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC FORCING TO                  
MOVE NE ALONG THE OHIO RIVER THIS MORNING...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT              
OVER THE BLUEGRASS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH AIR COLUMN COLD                   
ENOUGH FOR AN ALL SNOW EVENT...WENT WITH A SNOW ADVISORY NORTH OF               
A LINE FROM OHIO COUNTY TO NELSON COUNTY TO MADISON COUNTY KY.                  
THERE MAY BE A TRANSITION OF ICE PELLETS FOR A BRIEF TIME DURING                
THE PRECIP CHANGE OVER...BUT MOSTLY A SNOW EVENT. EXPECT GENERAL                
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ALONG NORTH OF THE OH                       
RIVER...1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE REST OF THE ADVISORY AREA...AND                    
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KY. PRECIP SHOULD                  
DECREASE IN INTENSITY FROM SW TO NE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING               
FLURRIES POSSIBLE TONIGHT.                                                      
THE OTHER MAIN ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM IS STRONG WINDS CAUSED BY                
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF SFC LOW. BUFKIT              
DATA INDICATING 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WHICH MEET                 
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME LOCATIONS OVER FA ALREADY GUSTING TO               
AROUND 40 MPH SO WILL START THE WIND ADY WITH THE 4AM FORECAST                  
PACKAGE AND RUN IT THROUGH 0Z TONIGHT. EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS               
THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL                
BE CLOSER TO FA. STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS                  
THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON WILL MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS                
SO MOTORISTS SHOULD BE CAUTIOUS.                                                
AS FOR TEMPS...THEY SHOULD SLOWLY FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY FROM THE              
LOW 30S INTO THE UPPER 20S. AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR SOMEWHAT                    
TONIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING AND COLD AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF LOW              
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DIP INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW             
20S.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY).                                           
LOOKING AG THE AO AND PNA TELECONNECTIONS...NOTHING DEFINITIVE                  
TO GO WITH. THE ENSEMBLE DATA AND THE ECMWF/GFS MODELS INDICATE                 
A SERIES OF TROUGHS BEING SPUN OFF BY THE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY               
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. THESE SHORT WAVES               
THEN MOVING GENERALLY EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN U.S.. NO                   
REALLY MAJOR COLD OUTBREAK IN SIGHT. MEAN 500 MB HEIGHTS THIS PERIOD            
RELATIVELY WARM. COUPLE THIS WITH A MORE ZONAL WEST TO EAST STORM               
TRACK...THIS WOULD INDICATE TEMPS TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LONG            
TERM PERIOD AFTER TUESDAY. ALSO WITH EACH TROUGH WE HAVE THE RISK OF            
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT NOT MUCH CHANCE OF ANY FROZEN PRECIP.                  
MADE SOME CONSISTENCY AND SMOOTHING ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT                  
LONG TERM PACKAGE BUT NOTHING REALLY MAJOR.                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (12Z TAFS)...                                                         
LIGHT SNOW OVER SDF AND LEX TERMINALS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE                
THROUGH THE EARLIER AFTERNOON HOURS.  THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING               
FLURRIES AFTER 17-18Z...BUT WILL NOT WARRANT A TAF MENTION FOR NOW.             
BWG LOOKS TO BE CLEAR OF THESE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING AS               
PRECIP ON THE BACK SIDE OF SFC LOW REMAINS N OF THIS TERMINAL. MVFR             
VSBYS AND CIGS THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FIRST AT BWG AND                
THEN AT SDF AND LEX THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.  WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN            
TODAY TOO AS GUSTS HAVE ALREADY REACHED 35 TO 40 MPH THIS MORNING AT            
THE TAF SITES.  EXPECT THESE STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE               
AFTERNOON UNDER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.  NEXT POTENTIAL PROBLEM                
COULD BE SOME STRATUS WORKING IN TOWARD TOMORROW MORNING AND WILL               
NEED TO INVESTIGATE THIS FOR LATER TAF ISSUANCES TODAY.                         
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ THIS MORNING TO 7 PM                
EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-                     
061>067-070>078-081-082.                                                        
     SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR                 
     KYZ023>043-045>049-055>057.                                                
IN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ THIS MORNING TO 7 PM                
EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.                     
     SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR                 
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...AML                                                                
LONG TERM....AB                                                                 
AVIATION...AML                                                                  
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                             
213 PM CST SAT DEC 15 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
BACK EDGE OF THE HEAVIER RAIN WAS FROM THE OHIO AND WABASH RIVER                
EASTWARD...AND CONTINUED TO HEAD EAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. PLAN                
ON LETTING THE FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE NATURALLY AS THE RAIN SHOULD BE               
WINDING DOWN BEFORE 6 PM. MEANWHILE SNOW WAS SEEN IN CLOSE                      
PROXIMITY TO H7/H5 LOW CENTERS NEAR KJLN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON PER               
THE RUC AND REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY. THE UPPER LOW WILL                   
TRACK ENE ACROSS SRN MO INTO SRN IL/IN TONIGHT...WITH                           
PRECIPITATION MIXING WITH THEN CHANGING TO SNOW IN ASSOC WITH THE               
UPPER SYSTEM AND DEEPENING COLD AIR INFILTRATION. HAVE BASED                    
OVERNIGHT TOTALS LARGELY ON THE SREF AND HPC GUIDANCE. 1-3 INCH                 
SNOW TOTALS FORECAST ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH AN                 
INCH OR SO CENTRAL AND GENERALLY LESS THAN OR APPROACHING 1 INCH                
SOUTH. A LOT OF WHAT FALLS MAY BE MAINLY ON GRASSY OR ELEVATED                  
SURFACES. HOWEVER SOME ROADS MAY BE AFFECTED TOO...NOT ONLY BY THE              
WINTRY PRECIPITATION...BUT DUE TO BELOW FREEZING TEMPS AS THE                   
NIGHT WEARS ON. THEREFORE PREFERRED HANDLING TONIGHT/S EXPECTED                 
CONDITIONS WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NRN 1/3...AND A SPECIAL               
WEATHER STATEMENT SOUTH.                                                        
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE WINDS TONIGHT TOO. THE SURFACE LOW JUST SW               
OF KMEG EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL DEEPEN CONSIDERABLY WHILE                     
HEADING NE TONIGHT...REACHING OHIO BY 12Z. WILL ALSO MENTION THE                
GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL IN AN SPS.                                                 
DO NOT EXPECT THE BACK EDGE SNOW TO HANG AROUND LONG SUNDAY MORNING.            
WILL CLEAR IT OUT PROGRESSIVELY AND DECREASE CLOUDS SUNDAY WITH                 
THE DEPARTURE OF THE LOW. IT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER COLD THOUGH WITH              
LOW TROP CAA CONTINUING. QUIET AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED                 
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE GULF COAST               
REGION.                                                                         
HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN PLACE FOR MONDAY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE               
HIGH OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE                  
NORTHEAST INTO THE APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THE ZONAL                 
UPPER FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE...BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z/12Z GFS BRING          
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING IN SOME             
LIGHT QPF LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THERE            
SHOULD BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z WED.                 
HOWEVER...QPF AMOUNTS LOOKS TOO PUNY TO MESS WITH PUTTING ANYTHING              
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.                                                   
ON WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER OUR REGION             
AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE CENTRAL              
PLAINS. THE GFS AND ECMWF NOT TOO BAD WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS              
SYSTEM...WITH THE ECMWF A BIT FASTER. BOTH MODELS WANT TO BREAK OUT             
SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT                 
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT THAT WILL BE SITUATED NEAR THE COUNTY              
WARNING AREA. THIS IS HANDLED OK IN THE GRIDS WITH SOME SLIGHT                  
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                                          
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT              
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO MISSOURI BY 12Z                  
THURSDAY. AGAIN...ASIDE FROM A SLIGHT LATITUDINAL DIFFERENCE IN                 
THE ACTUAL LOW PLACEMENT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF ARE VERY SIMILAR              
IN TIMING. IT APPEARS THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT                 
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THE GFS AND                   
ECMWF DO DIFFER ON WHERE THE LOW WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTHEAST...BUT              
IT DOES LOOK LIKE THURSDAY WILL BE OUR BEST DAY FOR RAINFALL.                   
RAINFALL TAPERS OFF/COMES TO AN END THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM                
PULLS OUT OF THE AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF WOULD INDICATE THAT               
THE PRECIP TYPE SHOULD BE ALL RAIN...SO WILL PULL MENTION OF SNOW               
OUT.                                                                            
MODELS REALLY DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE DAYS 6 AND 7 TIME FRAME.             
ON FRIDAY...THE 06Z GFS DEVELOPS ANOTHER WARM FRONT OVER THE                    
AREA...WHILE AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW GET THEIR ACT              
TOGETHER IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ECMWF SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE                   
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THE 12Z GFS BACKS OFF A LITTLE BIT ON THE             
SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. THE 06Z/12Z GFS THEN SHOW THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW           
MOVING INTO OUR REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING SCATTERED RAIN WITH               
IT. THE ECMWF SHOWS THE HIGH MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AS AN UPPER                 
LEVEL LOW MOVES OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE SOUTHERN               
PLAINS. SO HAVE LEFT FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW BUT ADDED A CHANCE FOR                  
PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS                
SYSTEM EVOLVES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN ORDER TO GET A BETTER                  
HANDLE ON THINGS.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
AS THE AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES TO HEAD EAST...MAINLY IFR CIGS                    
REMAIN...ALTHOUGH VSBYS BECOME P6SM. COULD SEE SOME DRIZZLE OR                  
LIGHT RAIN DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THIS LARGE AREA OF RAIN.                      
HOWEVER...LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WE               
EXPECT RAIN TO REDEVELOP/MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE              
SURFACE LOW THAT WILL BE TRACKING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. EXPECT A               
CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW BTWN 03Z AND 06Z FROM WEST TO EAST. ALONG                
WITH THAT CHANGEOVER...WILL BE VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS THAT                 
WILL LIKELY GUST AS HIGH AS 30 KT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. COULD SEE                  
CLOUDS DEPARTING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS.                
&&                                                                              
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CALDWELL-CALLOWAY-           
     CHRISTIAN-DAVIESS-HOPKINS-LYON-MARSHALL-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-                 
     TODD-TRIGG.                                                                
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST                 
     SUNDAY FOR PERRY MO.                                                       
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST                 
     SUNDAY FOR EDWARDS-FRANKLIN-GALLATIN-HAMILTON-JACKSON-                     
     JEFFERSON-PERRY IL-SALINE-WABASH-WAYNE IL-WHITE-WILLIAMSON.                
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST                 
     SUNDAY FOR GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-SPENCER-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK.                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CN/CW                                                                           
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA                                        
517 AM CST SAT DEC 15 2007                                                      
VERY BUSY MORNING WITH NUMEROUS IMPACTS TO FORECAST TODAY.                      
POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION                        
TODAY...WITH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...POST-FRONTAL WINDS...AND                
TEMPERATURES THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES.                                      
THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM SHREVEPORT               
TO WEST OF HUNTSVILLE TO EAST OF SAN ANTONIO. SHOWERS AND                       
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF              
THE FRONT...WITH SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS              
THE CWA. RAINFALL SEEMS LIKE A CERTAINTY AND WILL GO CATEGORICAL                
ON POPS TODAY...TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WITH FRONTAL                     
PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH HIGHS OCCURRING AHEAD OF              
THE FRONT AND PRIOR TO PRECIP ONSET...WITH FALLING TEMPS                        
THEREAFTER.                                                                     
SPC HAS PLACED THE ENTIRE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR                             
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASINGLY                      
FAVORABLE KINEMATICS FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON              
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH 0-3KM SRH VALUES OF 200-300 M2/S2 AND                 
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 60 KNOTS. DESPITE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER                
AND A LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE THIS MORNING...NAM AND RUC                   
SOUNDINGS BOTH ERODE THE INVERSION DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS                
LEADING TO CAPE VALUES GENERALLY FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG AREAWIDE                 
BUT AS HIGH AS 1500 J/KG PER NAM IN SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THIS MAY                
LEAD TO SOME SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY              
SOUTHERN ZONES AND COASTAL WATERS WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY                
WILL BE HIGHER. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL AND                     
DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS...BUT A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO               
POSSIBLE IF SURFACE BASED CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY                   
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES.                                                          
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED IN BEHIND THE                     
FRONT...WITH A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS              
ACROSS THE AREA. CLOSE LOOK AT MODELS INDICATES SOUTHERN ZONES                  
WILL REACH LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY...AND HAVE ISSUED AN               
ADVISORY ACCORDINGLY. EVEN STRONGER WINDS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE               
COASTAL WATERS...WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE NEAR GALE                        
FORCE AT TIMES.                                                                 
DID NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO LOOK AT EXTENDED AND FEW CHANGES WERE                 
MADE AFTER TODAY. STILL APPEARS A DECENT FREEZE WILL BE SEEN                    
MONDAY MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10 WITH TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO              
THE UPPER 20S IN NORTHERN ZONES. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS BY TUESDAY                
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS                
BACK IN THE PICTURE NEXT WEEK.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MESSY WEATHER DAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS               
MORNING BECOMING MVFR LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY                
WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND                    
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALL TAF SITES. WINDS TO SWITCH TO                        
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS                   
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN TAF SITES. ALL                    
TERMINALS SHOULD REACH VFR BY THIS EVENING.                                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS A                 
POWERFUL COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH              
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AFTER FRONTAL                  
PASSAGE...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COOLER AIR MOVING OVER THE              
WARMER GULF WATERS WILL CREATE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. MODELS ALL               
INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 30 KNOTS WILL BE SEEN FOR MUCH               
OF THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 40                   
KNOTS POSSIBLE. APPEARS GALE WARNING LOCAL CRITERIA OF SUSTAINED                
35+ KNOTS WILL NOT BE MET BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE...AND AN UPGRADE TO              
GALE WARNING FOR THE OUTER WATERS IS STILL POSSIBLE LATER TODAY.                
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
KLCH  69  34  55  32 / 100   0   0   0                                          
KBPT  69  34  55  33 / 100   0   0   0                                          
KAEX  66  32  52  28 /  80  10   0   0                                          
KLFT  71  35  54  31 /  80  10   0   0                                          
&&                                                                              
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 9 PM SATURDAY FOR THE             
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ACADIA...CALCASIEU...CAMERON...IBERIA...                  
     JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. MARY...               
     UPPER ST. MARTIN...AND VERMILION.                                          
TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 9 PM SATURDAY FOR THE             
     FOLLOWING ZONES: JEFFERSON...AND ORANGE.                                   
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 9 AM SUNDAY FOR THE             
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH                   
     ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL                    
     CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER                  
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT 20 NM...                    
     WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM                  
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO                      
     CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...AND WATERS FROM                
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING                 
     FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.                                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHAMBURGER                                                                      
</pre> la                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1005 PM EST SUN DEC 16 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED TO BUMP UP FCST MIN TEMPS AS LO CLD COVER LOOKS WL BE MORE              
PERSISTENT THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT PER RECENT STLT TRENDS AND LARGE             
CLD MASS TO THE SW DRIFTING NEWD. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS             
IN THE CLD WITH HI PRES RDG AXIS BLDG INTO THE UPR LKS...EXPECT A               
MORE CLDY NIGHT AS LOWER CLD TO THE SW OVERSPREADS THE AREA WHERE               
CLD COVER LOOKED LIKE IT WOULD BREAK EARLIER. ALSO BUMPED UP POPS/              
SN FALL AMTS A BIT OVER LUCE COUNTY WITH LLVL CNVGC BTWN NNE LAND               
BREEZE OFF ONTARIO AND MORE NW FLOW AT GRAND MARAIS/ERY. APX REPORTS            
PARADISE IN CHIPPEWA COUNTY PICKED UP 4"/2 HRS UNDER THIS BAND.                 
LOCAL HI RES MODEL SHOWS SN BAND IMPACTING AREAS MAINLY E OF LUCE               
COUNTY...SO NO NEED FOR ANY HEADLINES. OTRW...RISING HGTS/LOWERING              
SUBSIDENCE INVRN OVERNGT SHOULD CAUSE LES TO DIMINISH AFT 06Z.                  
COORDINATED WITH GRB/APX.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
20Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED A TROUGH              
JUST OFF THE WEST COAST...BROAD RIDGING MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH               
AMERICA WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ON THE TOP OF              
THE RIDGE...AND A STRONG TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT                
LAKES. THE CWA IS GENERALLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG                   
TROUGH...NOTED BY NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN A 987 MB SURFACE             
LOW NEAR BUFFALO AND A 1019MB RIDGE STRETCHING FROM NW ONTARIO                  
THROUGH MN. THIS NORTHERLY FLOW HAS BEEN BRINGING 850MB TEMPS OF                
-10C ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...PLENTY COLD ENOUGH TO GENERATE LAKE                 
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. FLOW HAS BEGUN TO BACK TO THE NW...WHICH IS                
HELPING TO DIMINISH THE SNOW SHOWERS OVER BARAGA AND MARQUETTE                  
COUNTIES. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST...SEEN ON THE 12Z INL            
SOUNDING...HAS NOW DECREASED TO THE BAND-LENGTH ON WESTERN LAKE                 
SUPERIOR TO ABOUT HALF OF THE FETCH. FARTHER TO THE NW...1005 MB LOW            
PRESSURE IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...WITH SOME MID                 
CLOUDS EAST OF THE WARM FRONT THAT STRETCHES SE TOWARDS SE SOUTH                
DAKOTA. CANADIAN RADAR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS SOME SNOW AROUND THE                  
SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.                                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...                                             
THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER               
LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AS IT HEADS TOWARDS UPPER                        
MICHIGAN...THOUGH THE GENERAL TREND AT LEAST IN THE GFS HAS BEEN                
FARTHER NORTH. FOR THE PURPOSE OF THE FORECAST...FOLLOWED THE                   
MAJORITY CONSENSUS OF THE GFS/UKMET/LOCAL WRF-ARW/ECMWF.                        
FOR TONIGHT...UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN AHEAD OF THE              
UPPER LOW...BECOMING SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL U.P. AROUND 12Z MON.             
FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO BACK TONIGHT...AND LIKELY TOWARDS THE SW                
OVER THE FAR WESTERN U.P. AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP LAKE                 
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS GOING IN NW FLOW AREAS...MOST NUMEROUS EAST OF              
MARQUETTE WHERE THE LONGER FETCH LENGTH CAN OVERCOME THE DRY AIR AND            
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. THIS DRY AIR AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL            
HELP LOWER ACCUMULATIONS EAST OF MARQUETTE...THOUGH. BIG QUESTION               
TONIGHT IS HOW LOW TO GO ON TEMPERATURES...BECAUSE WITH THE DRY AIR             
AND SURFACE RIDGE MOVING IN...ANY CLEARING COULD CAUSE TEMPS TO                 
PLUMMET. FIGURE THE BEST CHANCE OF CLEARING WILL BE IN THE FAR SOUTH            
CENTRAL U.P....WHICH IS WHERE IT IS MOSTLY CLEAR NOW. HOWEVER...AS              
WINDS BACK WESTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE REST OF THE INTERIOR OF THE            
WESTERN U.P. COULD CLEAR OUT TOO. THUS THE LOWEST TEMPS ARE FORECAST            
THERE WITH READINGS AROUND ZERO. EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR             
CLOUDS AND TEMPS CLOSELY.                                                       
ON MONDAY...UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER NORTHERN LAKE                    
SUPERIOR. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL LIKELY OCCUR UNDER              
THIS UPPER LOW AS IS BEING OBSERVED UPSTREAM...THUS HIGHEST POPS ARE            
SITUATED OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF               
THE UPPER LOW COULD ALSO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES...AS               
GRAND FORKS IS REPORTING AT 3 PM EST. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED AT LEAST             
20 POPS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...EXCEPT NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER WHERE            
THE FORCING IS NOT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SNOW. IN ADDITION...EARLY IN               
THE FORECAST SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT COULD STILL BE GOING OVER THE               
FAR EASTERN CWA WHERE WINDS HAVE NOT BACKED TO THE SW YET. THUS 20              
POPS REMAIN THERE FOR THE MORNING. ANOTHER CONCERN IS AS THE UPPER              
LOW MOVES AWAY...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW THE -10C                    
ISOTHERM SITS AROUND...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN U.P.. SINCE THE             
WINDS ARE PROGGED OUT OF THE SW...WHICH IS NOT AN UPSLOPE                       
DIRECTION...NO FREEZING DRIZZLE IS MENTIONED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE            
AS WARM AS THEY ARE TODAY OR PERHAPS SLIGHTLY WARMER SINCE 850MB                
TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO RISE TO -7 TO -9C.                                         
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)...                                
ECMWF A BIT FARTHER NORTH WITH PAIR OF QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE                
SYSTEMS FOR MON NIGHT AND AGAIN TUE NIGHT INTO WED. GFS WAS A BIT               
FARTHER SOUTH AND AT THIS POINT WAS NOT PREFERRED. GOING WITH THE               
FARTHER NORTH SOLUTIONS KEEPS THE BEST CHANCES OF PCPN OVER NORTHERN            
ZONES INTO LK SUPERIOR. TEMPS IN THE BLYR REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR                
SNOW. HOWEVER...BOTH NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE                    
EXTENDING TO THE -10C ISOTHERM SO FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AS               
WELL. LIFT IN THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER IS MINIMAL...BUT THERE IS                 
ENOUGH OF A CHANCE LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY TO INCLUDE IT              
FOR AREAS WHERE BLYR WINDS COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE LIFT.               
FOR THE MOST PART...AFTER LGT PCPN ENDS ON WED...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING            
LEADS TO QUIET WX ON INTO THU INTO FRI. WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND            
EVENTUALLY AT THE SFC COULD LEAD TO SOME SPOTTY LGT PCPN DURING THIS            
TIME. IF PCPN OCCURS FRI...TEMPS MAY EVEN BE WARM ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY             
A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW. OTHERWISE...DO EXPECT FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS WITH            
PERSISTENT INVERSION LIKELY IN PLACE. PRIMARY FOCUS LATE IN THE WEEK            
INTO NEXT WEEKEND IS HOW FAR NORTH THE STRONG TROF OVER SOUTHERN                
PLAINS WILL EJECT. HOW THIS TROF PLAYS OUT WILL DETERMINE THE                   
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES NEXT              
WEEKEND. A BIT EARLY TO GET WRAPPED UP IN DETAILS...BUT LOW PRESSURE            
TRACK AND HEAVY SNOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SET              
UP SOMEWHERE OVER THE UPR-CNTRL GREAT LAKES LATE SAT INTO NEXT SUN.             
INCREASED POPS SOME BUT STILL A CHANCE AT THIS POINT. LATEST ECMWF              
IS EVEN FARTHER TO THE WEST WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN INTO THE             
SOUTHEAST CWA BY 12Z SUN.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO LINGER MOST OF THE NGT AT BOTH SITES WITH                   
RELATIVELY MOIST LK MODIFIED AIR TRAPPED UNDER LO INVRN STRENGTHENED            
BY SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF DEEP LO PRES EXITING TO THE E. BUT LES                 
INTENSITY/VSBY REDUCTION WL BE LIMITED BY ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR NOTED            
OVER NRN MN...WHERE SKIES ARE MOCLR AND 20Z TAMDAR SDNG FM DLH SHOWS            
INVRN BASE BLO H9. THIS DRY AIR AND BACKING FLOW TO A MORE DOWNSLOPE            
WLY COMPONENT WL LIKELY CAUSE CIGS AT SAW TO RISE TO VFR BEFORE LO              
CLDS SCATTER OUT THERE LATE TNGT WITH ARRIVAL OF SFC RDG AXIS. BUT              
WLY FLOW OVER WRN LK SUP WL TEND TO MAINTAIN LOWER MVFR CIGS AT CMX             
THRU SUNRISE. ONCE FLOW TURNS TO THE SW MON MRNG THOUGH...EXPECT CIG            
TO RISE TO VFR. FCST TRACK OF INCOMING LO PRES NOW OVER SCNTRL CAN              
ACRS NRN LK SUP ON MON WITH ABSENCE OF SGNFT MSTR IN THE NRN PLAINS             
SUGS ANY PCPN ON MON WL BE ON THE LGT SIDE...ESPECIALLY AT SAW. BUT             
EXPECTED VEERING LLVL FLOW TO MORE W AT CMX IN THE AFTN WARRANTS                
FCST OF LOWER CIG/VSBY TO MVFR RANGE AGAIN AT THAT LOCATION.                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
BETWEEN NOW AND WEDNESDAY...TWO LOW PRESSURE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO              
MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...ONE ON MONDAY AND THE OTHER TUE NIGHT.              
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 30 KT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS NEITHER            
SYSTEM IS STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE GALES. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE              
WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THU AND FRI...WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP WINDS AT            
OR BELOW 25 KNOTS.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...KC                                                                     
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...AJ                                                        
LONG TERM...JLA                                                                 
MARINE...AJ                                                                     
AVIATION...KC                                                                   
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
630 PM EST SUN DEC 16 2007                                                      
UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS                                                            
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
20Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED A TROUGH              
JUST OFF THE WEST COAST...BROAD RIDGING MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH               
AMERICA WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ON THE TOP OF              
THE RIDGE...AND A STRONG TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT                
LAKES. THE CWA IS GENERALLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG                   
TROUGH...NOTED BY NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN A 987 MB SURFACE             
LOW NEAR BUFFALO AND A 1019MB RIDGE STRETCHING FROM NW ONTARIO                  
THROUGH MN. THIS NORTHERLY FLOW HAS BEEN BRINGING 850MB TEMPS OF                
-10C ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...PLENTY COLD ENOUGH TO GENERATE LAKE                 
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. FLOW HAS BEGUN TO BACK TO THE NW...WHICH IS                
HELPING TO DIMINISH THE SNOW SHOWERS OVER BARAGA AND MARQUETTE                  
COUNTIES. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST...SEEN ON THE 12Z INL            
SOUNDING...HAS NOW DECREASED TO THE BAND-LENGTH ON WESTERN LAKE                 
SUPERIOR TO ABOUT HALF OF THE FETCH. FARTHER TO THE NW...1005 MB LOW            
PRESSURE IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...WITH SOME MID                 
CLOUDS EAST OF THE WARM FRONT THAT STRETCHES SE TOWARDS SE SOUTH                
DAKOTA. CANADIAN RADAR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS SOME SNOW AROUND THE                  
SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.                                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...                                             
THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER               
LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AS IT HEADS TOWARDS UPPER                        
MICHIGAN...THOUGH THE GENERAL TREND AT LEAST IN THE GFS HAS BEEN                
FARTHER NORTH. FOR THE PURPOSE OF THE FORECAST...FOLLOWED THE                   
MAJORITY CONSENSUS OF THE GFS/UKMET/LOCAL WRF-ARW/ECMWF.                        
FOR TONIGHT...UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN AHEAD OF THE              
UPPER LOW...BECOMING SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL U.P. AROUND 12Z MON.             
FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO BACK TONIGHT...AND LIKELY TOWARDS THE SW                
OVER THE FAR WESTERN U.P. AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP LAKE                 
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS GOING IN NW FLOW AREAS...MOST NUMEROUS EAST OF              
MARQUETTE WHERE THE LONGER FETCH LENGTH CAN OVERCOME THE DRY AIR AND            
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. THIS DRY AIR AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL            
HELP LOWER ACCUMULATIONS EAST OF MARQUETTE...THOUGH. BIG QUESTION               
TONIGHT IS HOW LOW TO GO ON TEMPERATURES...BECAUSE WITH THE DRY AIR             
AND SURFACE RIDGE MOVING IN...ANY CLEARING COULD CAUSE TEMPS TO                 
PLUMMET. FIGURE THE BEST CHANCE OF CLEARING WILL BE IN THE FAR SOUTH            
CENTRAL U.P....WHICH IS WHERE IT IS MOSTLY CLEAR NOW. HOWEVER...AS              
WINDS BACK WESTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE REST OF THE INTERIOR OF THE            
WESTERN U.P. COULD CLEAR OUT TOO. THUS THE LOWEST TEMPS ARE FORECAST            
THERE WITH READINGS AROUND ZERO. EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR             
CLOUDS AND TEMPS CLOSELY.                                                       
ON MONDAY...UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER NORTHERN LAKE                    
SUPERIOR. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL LIKELY OCCUR UNDER              
THIS UPPER LOW AS IS BEING OBSERVED UPSTREAM...THUS HIGHEST POPS ARE            
SITUATED OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF               
THE UPPER LOW COULD ALSO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES...AS               
GRAND FORKS IS REPORTING AT 3 PM EST. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED AT LEAST             
20 POPS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...EXCEPT NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER WHERE            
THE FORCING IS NOT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SNOW. IN ADDITION...EARLY IN               
THE FORECAST SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT COULD STILL BE GOING OVER THE               
FAR EASTERN CWA WHERE WINDS HAVE NOT BACKED TO THE SW YET. THUS 20              
POPS REMAIN THERE FOR THE MORNING. ANOTHER CONCERN IS AS THE UPPER              
LOW MOVES AWAY...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW THE -10C                    
ISOTHERM SITS AROUND...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN U.P.. SINCE THE             
WINDS ARE PROGGED OUT OF THE SW...WHICH IS NOT AN UPSLOPE                       
DIRECTION...NO FREEZING DRIZZLE IS MENTIONED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE            
AS WARM AS THEY ARE TODAY OR PERHAPS SLIGHTLY WARMER SINCE 850MB                
TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO RISE TO -7 TO -9C.                                         
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)...                                
ECMWF A BIT FARTHER NORTH WITH PAIR OF QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE                
SYSTEMS FOR MON NIGHT AND AGAIN TUE NIGHT INTO WED. GFS WAS A BIT               
FARTHER SOUTH AND AT THIS POINT WAS NOT PREFERRED. GOING WITH THE               
FARTHER NORTH SOLUTIONS KEEPS THE BEST CHANCES OF PCPN OVER NORTHERN            
ZONES INTO LK SUPERIOR. TEMPS IN THE BLYR REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR                
SNOW. HOWEVER...BOTH NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE                    
EXTENDING TO THE -10C ISOTHERM SO FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AS               
WELL. LIFT IN THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER IS MINIMAL...BUT THERE IS                 
ENOUGH OF A CHANCE LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY TO INCLUDE IT              
FOR AREAS WHERE BLYR WINDS COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE LIFT.               
FOR THE MOST PART...AFTER LGT PCPN ENDS ON WED...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING            
LEADS TO QUIET WX ON INTO THU INTO FRI. WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND            
EVENTUALLY AT THE SFC COULD LEAD TO SOME SPOTTY LGT PCPN DURING THIS            
TIME. IF PCPN OCCURS FRI...TEMPS MAY EVEN BE WARM ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY             
A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW. OTHERWISE...DO EXPECT FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS WITH            
PERSISTENT INVERSION LIKELY IN PLACE. PRIMARY FOCUS LATE IN THE WEEK            
INTO NEXT WEEKEND IS HOW FAR NORTH THE STRONG TROF OVER SOUTHERN                
PLAINS WILL EJECT. HOW THIS TROF PLAYS OUT WILL DETERMINE THE                   
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES NEXT              
WEEKEND. A BIT EARLY TO GET WRAPPED UP IN DETAILS...BUT LOW PRESSURE            
TRACK AND HEAVY SNOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SET              
UP SOMEWHERE OVER THE UPR-CNTRL GREAT LAKES LATE SAT INTO NEXT SUN.             
INCREASED POPS SOME BUT STILL A CHANCE AT THIS POINT. LATEST ECMWF              
IS EVEN FARTHER TO THE WEST WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN INTO THE             
SOUTHEAST CWA BY 12Z SUN.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO LINGER MOST OF THE NGT AT BOTH SITES WITH                   
RELATIVELY MOIST LK MODIFIED AIR TRAPPED UNDER LO INVRN STRENGTHENED            
BY SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF DEEP LO PRES EXITING TO THE E. BUT LES                 
INTENSITY/VSBY REDUCTION WL BE LIMITED BY ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR NOTED            
OVER NRN MN...WHERE SKIES ARE MOCLR AND 20Z TAMDAR SDNG FM DLH SHOWS            
INVRN BASE BLO H9. THIS DRY AIR AND BACKING FLOW TO A MORE DOWNSLOPE            
WLY COMPONENT WL LIKELY CAUSE CIGS AT SAW TO RISE TO VFR BEFORE LO              
CLDS SCATTER OUT THERE LATE TNGT WITH ARRIVAL OF SFC RDG AXIS. BUT              
WLY FLOW OVER WRN LK SUP WL TEND TO MAINTAIN LOWER MVFR CIGS AT CMX             
THRU SUNRISE. ONCE FLOW TURNS TO THE SW MON MRNG THOUGH...EXPECT CIG            
TO RISE TO VFR. FCST TRACK OF INCOMING LO PRES NOW OVER SCNTRL CAN              
ACRS NRN LK SUP ON MON WITH ABSENCE OF SGNFT MSTR IN THE NRN PLAINS             
SUGS ANY PCPN ON MON WL BE ON THE LGT SIDE...ESPECIALLY AT SAW. BUT             
EXPECTED VEERING LLVL FLOW TO MORE W AT CMX IN THE AFTN WARRANTS                
FCST OF LOWER CIG/VSBY TO MVFR RANGE AGAIN AT THAT LOCATION.                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
BETWEEN NOW AND WEDNESDAY...TWO LOW PRESSURE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO              
MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...ONE ON MONDAY AND THE OTHER TUE NIGHT.              
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 30 KT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS NEITHER            
SYSTEM IS STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE GALES. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE              
WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THU AND FRI...WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP WINDS AT            
OR BELOW 25 KNOTS.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...AJ                                                        
LONG TERM...JLA                                                                 
MARINE...AJ                                                                     
AVIATION...KC                                                                   
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
345 PM EST SUN DEC 16 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
20Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED A TROUGH              
JUST OFF THE WEST COAST...BROAD RIDGING MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH               
AMERICA WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ON THE TOP OF              
THE RIDGE...AND A STRONG TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT                
LAKES. THE CWA IS GENERALLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG                   
TROUGH...NOTED BY NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN A 987 MB SURFACE             
LOW NEAR BUFFALO AND A 1019MB RIDGE STRETCHING FROM NW ONTARIO                  
THROUGH MN. THIS NORTHERLY FLOW HAS BEEN BRINGING 850MB TEMPS OF                
-10C ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...PLENTY COLD ENOUGH TO GENERATE LAKE                 
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. FLOW HAS BEGUN TO BACK TO THE NW...WHICH IS                
HELPING TO DIMINISH THE SNOW SHOWERS OVER BARAGA AND MARQUETTE                  
COUNTIES. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST...SEEN ON THE 12Z INL            
SOUNDING...HAS NOW DECREASED TO THE BAND-LENGTH ON WESTERN LAKE                 
SUPERIOR TO ABOUT HALF OF THE FETCH. FARTHER TO THE NW...1005 MB LOW            
PRESSURE IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...WITH SOME MID                 
CLOUDS EAST OF THE WARM FRONT THAT STRETCHES SE TOWARDS SE SOUTH                
DAKOTA. CANADIAN RADAR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS SOME SNOW AROUND THE                  
SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.                                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...                                             
THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER               
LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AS IT HEADS TOWARDS UPPER                        
MICHIGAN...THOUGH THE GENERAL TREND AT LEAST IN THE GFS HAS BEEN                
FARTHER NORTH. FOR THE PURPOSE OF THE FORECAST...FOLLOWED THE                   
MAJORITY CONSENSUS OF THE GFS/UKMET/LOCAL WRF-ARW/ECMWF.                        
FOR TONIGHT...UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN AHEAD OF THE              
UPPER LOW...BECOMING SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL U.P. AROUND 12Z MON.             
FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO BACK TONIGHT...AND LIKELY TOWARDS THE SW                
OVER THE FAR WESTERN U.P. AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP LAKE                 
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS GOING IN NW FLOW AREAS...MOST NUMEROUS EAST OF              
MARQUETTE WHERE THE LONGER FETCH LENGTH CAN OVERCOME THE DRY AIR AND            
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. THIS DRY AIR AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL            
HELP LOWER ACCUMULATIONS EAST OF MARQUETTE...THOUGH. BIG QUESTION               
TONIGHT IS HOW LOW TO GO ON TEMPERATURES...BECAUSE WITH THE DRY AIR             
AND SURFACE RIDGE MOVING IN...ANY CLEARING COULD CAUSE TEMPS TO                 
PLUMMET. FIGURE THE BEST CHANCE OF CLEARING WILL BE IN THE FAR SOUTH            
CENTRAL U.P....WHICH IS WHERE IT IS MOSTLY CLEAR NOW. HOWEVER...AS              
WINDS BACK WESTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE REST OF THE INTERIOR OF THE            
WESTERN U.P. COULD CLEAR OUT TOO. THUS THE LOWEST TEMPS ARE FORECAST            
THERE WITH READINGS AROUND ZERO. EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR             
CLOUDS AND TEMPS CLOSELY.                                                       
ON MONDAY...UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER NORTHERN LAKE                    
SUPERIOR. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL LIKELY OCCUR UNDER              
THIS UPPER LOW AS IS BEING OBSERVED UPSTREAM...THUS HIGHEST POPS ARE            
SITUATED OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF               
THE UPPER LOW COULD ALSO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES...AS               
GRAND FORKS IS REPORTING AT 3 PM EST. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED AT LEAST             
20 POPS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...EXCEPT NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER WHERE            
THE FORCING IS NOT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SNOW. IN ADDITION...EARLY IN               
THE FORECAST SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT COULD STILL BE GOING OVER THE               
FAR EASTERN CWA WHERE WINDS HAVE NOT BACKED TO THE SW YET. THUS 20              
POPS REMAIN THERE FOR THE MORNING. ANOTHER CONCERN IS AS THE UPPER              
LOW MOVES AWAY...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW THE -10C                    
ISOTHERM SITS AROUND...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN U.P.. SINCE THE             
WINDS ARE PROGGED OUT OF THE SW...WHICH IS NOT AN UPSLOPE                       
DIRECTION...NO FREEZING DRIZZLE IS MENTIONED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE            
AS WARM AS THEY ARE TODAY OR PERHAPS SLIGHTLY WARMER SINCE 850MB                
TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO RISE TO -7 TO -9C.                                         
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)...                                
ECMWF A BIT FARTHER NORTH WITH PAIR OF QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE                
SYSTEMS FOR MON NIGHT AND AGAIN TUE NIGHT INTO WED. GFS WAS A BIT               
FARTHER SOUTH AND AT THIS POINT WAS NOT PREFERRED. GOING WITH THE               
FARTHER NORTH SOLUTIONS KEEPS THE BEST CHANCES OF PCPN OVER NORTHERN            
ZONES INTO LK SUPERIOR. TEMPS IN THE BLYR REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR                
SNOW. HOWEVER...BOTH NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE                    
EXTENDING TO THE -10C ISOTHERM SO FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AS               
WELL. LIFT IN THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER IS MINIMAL...BUT THERE IS                 
ENOUGH OF A CHANCE LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY TO INCLUDE IT              
FOR AREAS WHERE BLYR WINDS COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE LIFT.               
FOR THE MOST PART...AFTER LGT PCPN ENDS ON WED...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING            
LEADS TO QUIET WX ON INTO THU INTO FRI. WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND            
EVENTUALLY AT THE SFC COULD LEAD TO SOME SPOTTY LGT PCPN DURING THIS            
TIME. IF PCPN OCCURS FRI...TEMPS MAY EVEN BE WARM ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY             
A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW. OTHERWISE...DO EXPECT FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS WITH            
PERSISTENT INVERSION LIKELY IN PLACE. PRIMARY FOCUS LATE IN THE WEEK            
INTO NEXT WEEKEND IS HOW FAR NORTH THE STRONG TROF OVER SOUTHERN                
PLAINS WILL EJECT. HOW THIS TROF PLAYS OUT WILL DETERMINE THE                   
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES NEXT              
WEEKEND. A BIT EARLY TO GET WRAPPED UP IN DETAILS...BUT LOW PRESSURE            
TRACK AND HEAVY SNOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SET              
UP SOMEWHERE OVER THE UPR-CNTRL GREAT LAKES LATE SAT INTO NEXT SUN.             
INCREASED POPS SOME BUT STILL A CHANCE AT THIS POINT. LATEST ECMWF              
IS EVEN FARTHER TO THE WEST WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN INTO THE             
SOUTHEAST CWA BY 12Z SUN.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
KMQT RADAR...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS FROM BOTH TAF SITES              
SHOW LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN NORTH...BUT WILL              
BACK TO THE NW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH                    
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MINNESOTA. THIS BACKING OF WIND SHOULD ALLOW            
VSBYS TO COME UP AT SAW THIS EVENING...WITH CEILINGS PERHAPS GOING              
VFR BY LATE IN THE NIGHT AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. AT CMX...A NW             
WIND WILL HELP TO KEEP SNOW GOING THERE...BUT FIGURE THE LOWEST                 
VISIBILITES (PERHAPS AS LOW AS LIFR) WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON WHEN             
THE FORCING FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS AT ITS GREATEST. BROUGHT VSBYS              
AND CEILINGS AT CMX TO VFR MON MORNING WHEN THE WINDS TURN TOWARDS              
THE SOUTH AND ALLOW THE LAKE EFFECT TO EXIT. VFR CEILINGS ARE                   
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MON MORNING AT BOTH TAF SITES AS STRATUS            
COMES IN AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE MINNESOTA/ONTARIO               
BORDER.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
BETWEEN NOW AND WEDNESDAY...TWO LOW PRESSURE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO              
MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...ONE ON MONDAY AND THE OTHER TUE NIGHT.              
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 30 KT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS NEITHER            
SYSTEM IS STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE GALES. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE              
WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THU AND FRI...WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP WINDS AT            
OR BELOW 25 KNOTS.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...AJ                                                        
LONG TERM...JLA                                                                 
AVIATION/MARINE...AJ                                                            
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
107 PM EST SUN DEC 16 2007                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE                                   
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE LES POTENTIAL TODAY AND TONIGHT AND LIGHT                
SNOW OR FZDZ CHANCES MON AND TUE.                                               
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM             
HUDSON BAY TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE WRN                   
CONUS...AND ANOTHER TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA SOUTHWARD. THE               
NRN STREAM TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED THROUGH WRN ONTARIO INTO NE MN WHILE            
THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WAS LOCATED OVER ERN MT. AT THE SFC...A             
RIDGE EXTENDED FROM MANITOBA THROUGH THE PLAINS BETWEEN A 995 MB LOW            
OVER WRN OH AND ANOTHER TROUGH/WARM FRONT INTO SRN SASK. A WEAK                 
TROUGH AND BAND OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SUPPORTED BY LOW               
LEVEL CON AND 900-800 MB FGEN WAS ALSO MOVING THROUGH WRN LAKE                  
SUPERIOR. INSTABILITY FOR LES WAS MARGINAL WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND             
-10C. RADAR SHOWED WEAK LES (AOB 15 DBZ) HAD ALSO INCREASED FROM E              
CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR TOWARD MARQUETTE IN RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL CONV              
WITH WEAK LAKE INDUCED TROF                                                     
TODAY...EXPECT WINDS TO VEER NRLY AND INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH THE            
MOST FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONV SHIFTING FROM THE WEST TOWARD                     
LOCATIONS EAST OF MARQUETTE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE LCL HIGH               
RES WRF/ARW SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER LES BAND IN                      
CONVERGENCE AXIS AHEAD OT THE STRONGER N WINDS...CONFIDENCE IN SUCH             
DETAILS IS LOW. WHILE INSTABILITY MAY BE MARGINAL WITH LAKE-850 MB              
DELTA/T TO AROUND 15C...FAVORABLE MOISTURE DEPTH/INVERSION HEIGHTS              
TO 6K-8K FT WITH A DECENT PORTION OF THE CLOUD IN THE FAVORED -12C              
TO -17C LAYER SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECENT SNOW GROWTH WITH ANY SUSTAINED            
BANDS. SO...MAINLY JUST SCT -SHSN WITH ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH             
WERE MENTIONED WITH LIKELY/NMRS VCNTY KP53 THIS AFTERNOON WHERE                 
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE ARE POSSIBLE.                            
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL SLOWLY BACK TO NW OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE.             
WEAK LAKE INDUCED TROFFING SHOULD KEEP BEST LOW LEVEL CONV FOCUSED              
INTO THE ERN CWA VCNTY KERY WHERE ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF              
AN INCH OR TWO ARE EXPECTED. WITH A WEAK RIDGE MOVING                           
THROUGH...EXPECT ENOUGH CLEARING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST FOR TEMPS TO            
AGAIN DROP BLO GUIDANCE VALUES INTO THE 0 TO -5F RANGE.                         
MON...ALTHOUGH THE NAM MAY BE A BIT WEAK WITH THE MT SHORTWAVE...ITS            
PATH...FARTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS...IS SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF AND               
UKMET. SO...WITH THE BEST 700-500 QVECTOR CONV REMAINING N OF THE               
CWA...ONLY LOWER END CHANCE POPS SEEM REASONABLE AND MAY NEED TO BE             
LOWERED/REMOVED IF THE TREND FROM THE NAM HOLDS UP. THE ABUNDANT                
SFC-925 MB MOISTURE DEPICTED BY THE NAM MAY BE OVERDONE BUT HINTS AT            
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FZDZ WITH THE PRESENCE OF WAA AND 275K-280K              
ISENTROPIC ASCENT.                                                              
TUE AND TUE NIGHT...THE GFS WAS ALSO STRONGER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH            
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WHICH MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE               
NAM WAS AGAIN WEAKER AND TOO FAR NORTH COMPARED TO THE FAVORED                  
CANADIAN/ECMWF. LIKE THE MON SYSTEM...THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND BEST              
CHANCE FOR SNOW IS LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA WITH JUST LOWER            
END POPS FOR UPPER MI. THIS COULD ALSO LEAD TO ANOTHER CHANCE FOR               
FZDZ WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE BLO -10C. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF                    
UNCERTAINTY...WITH THE GFS FAVORING MAINLY SNOW...FZDZ WAS NOT                  
INCLUDED YET.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
KMQT RADAR...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS FROM BOTH TAF SITES              
SHOW LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN NORTH...BUT WILL              
BACK TO THE NW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH                    
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MINNESOTA. THIS BACKING OF WIND SHOULD ALLOW            
VSBYS TO COME UP AT SAW THIS EVENING...WITH CEILINGS PERHAPS GOING              
VFR BY LATE IN THE NIGHT AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. AT CMX...A NW             
WIND WILL HELP TO KEEP SNOW GOING THERE...BUT FIGURE THE LOWEST                 
VISIBILITES (PERHAPS AS LOW AS LIFR) WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON WHEN             
THE FORCING FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS AT ITS GREATEST. BROUGHT VSBYS              
AND CEILINGS AT CMX TO VFR MON MORNING WHEN THE WINDS TURN TOWARDS              
THE SOUTH AND ALLOW THE LAKE EFFECT TO EXIT. VFR CEILINGS ARE                   
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MON MORNING AT BOTH TAF SITES AS STRATUS            
COMES IN AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE MINNESOTA/ONTARIO               
BORDER.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN WINDS AT OR BELOW 30 KNOTS THROUGH THE             
PERIOD.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...JLB                                                                
AVIATION...AJ                                                                   
MARINE...KF                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
620 AM EST SUN DEC 16 2007                                                      
UPDATED FOR 12 TAFS                                                             
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE LES POTENTIAL TODAY AND TONIGHT AND LIGHT                
SNOW OR FZDZ CHANCES MON AND TUE.                                               
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM             
HUDSON BAY TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE WRN                   
CONUS...AND ANOTHER TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA SOUTHWARD. THE               
NRN STREAM TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED THROUGH WRN ONTARIO INTO NE MN WHILE            
THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WAS LOCATED OVER ERN MT. AT THE SFC...A             
RIDGE EXTENDED FROM MANITOBA THROUGH THE PLAINS BETWEEN A 995 MB LOW            
OVER WRN OH AND ANOTHER TROUGH/WARM FRONT INTO SRN SASK. A WEAK                 
TROUGH AND BAND OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SUPPORTED BY LOW               
LEVEL CON AND 900-800 MB FGEN WAS ALSO MOVING THROUGH WRN LAKE                  
SUPERIOR. INSTABILITY FOR LES WAS MARGINAL WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND             
-10C. RADAR SHOWED WEAK LES (AOB 15 DBZ) HAD ALSO INCREASED FROM E              
CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR TOWARD MARQUETTE IN RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL CONV              
WITH WEAK LAKE INDUCED TROF                                                     
TODAY...EXPECT WINDS TO VEER NRLY AND INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH THE            
MOST FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONV SHIFTING FROM THE WEST TOWARD                     
LOCATIONS EAST OF MARQUETTE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE LCL HIGH               
RES WRF/ARW SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER LES BAND IN                      
CONVERGENCE AXIS AHEAD OT THE STRONGER N WINDS...CONFIDENCE IN SUCH             
DETAILS IS LOW. WHILE INSTABILITY MAY BE MARGINAL WITH LAKE-850 MB              
DELTA/T TO AROUND 15C...FAVORABLE MOISTURE DEPTH/INVERSION HEIGHTS              
TO 6K-8K FT WITH A DECENT PORTION OF THE CLOUD IN THE FAVORED -12C              
TO -17C LAYER SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECENT SNOW GROWTH WITH ANY SUSTAINED            
BANDS. SO...MAINLY JUST SCT -SHSN WITH ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH             
WERE MENTIONED WITH LIKELY/NMRS VCNTY KP53 THIS AFTERNOON WHERE                 
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE ARE POSSIBLE.                            
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL SLOWLY BACK TO NW OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE.             
WEAK LAKE INDUCED TROFFING SHOULD KEEP BEST LOW LEVEL CONV FOCUSED              
INTO THE ERN CWA VCNTY KERY WHERE ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF              
AN INCH OR TWO ARE EXPECTED. WITH A WEAK RIDGE MOVING                           
THROUGH...EXPECT ENOUGH CLEARING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST FOR TEMPS TO            
AGAIN DROP BLO GUIDANCE VALUES INTO THE 0 TO -5F RANGE.                         
MON...ALTHOUGH THE NAM MAY BE A BIT WEAK WITH THE MT SHORTWAVE...ITS            
PATH...FARTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS...IS SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF AND               
UKMET. SO...WITH THE BEST 700-500 QVECTOR CONV REMAINING N OF THE               
CWA...ONLY LOWER END CHANCE POPS SEEM REASONABLE AND MAY NEED TO BE             
LOWERED/REMOVED IF THE TREND FROM THE NAM HOLDS UP. THE ABUNDANT                
SFC-925 MB MOISTURE DEPICTED BY THE NAM MAY BE OVERDONE BUT HINTS AT            
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FZDZ WITH THE PRESENCE OF WAA AND 275K-280K              
ISENTROPIC ASCENT.                                                              
TUE AND TUE NIGHT...THE GFS WAS ALSO STRONGER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH            
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WHICH MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE               
NAM WAS AGAIN WEAKER AND TOO FAR NORTH COMPARED TO THE FAVORED                  
CANADIAN/ECMWF. LIKE THE MON SYSTEM...THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND BEST              
CHANCE FOR SNOW IS LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA WITH JUST LOWER            
END POPS FOR UPPER MI. THIS COULD ALSO LEAD TO ANOTHER CHANCE FOR               
FZDZ WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE BLO -10C. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF                    
UNCERTAINTY...WITH THE GFS FAVORING MAINLY SNOW...FZDZ WAS NOT                  
INCLUDED YET.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RADAR IMAGES LES HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO SLIDE             
TOWARDS KSAW...WITH FLURRIES AT MQT NWS THIS MORNING.  WINDS WILL               
BECOME MORE NNW AFTER 12Z INCREASING THE POSSIBILITY OF LES AT BOTH             
SITES THROUGH THE FIRST 12-18 HOURS OF THE FORECAST.  AT THAT POINT             
WINDS SHIFT ONCE AGAIN BASICALLY CUTTING OFF MUCH OF THE LES                    
ACTIVITY.  THIS BREAK FROM THICKER CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS IS                   
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS A WARM FRONT AND ITS                   
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDE IN TOWARDS THE END OF OF THE               
FORECAST PERIOD.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN WINDS AT OR BELOW 30 KNOTS THROUGH THE             
PERIOD.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...JLB                                                                
AVIATION...KF                                                                   
MARINE...KF                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
500 AM EST SUN DEC 16 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE LES POTENTIAL TODAY AND TONIGHT AND LIGHT                
SNOW OR FZDZ CHANCES MON AND TUE.                                               
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM             
HUDSON BAY TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE WRN                   
CONUS...AND ANOTHER TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA SOUTHWARD. THE               
NRN STREAM TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED THROUGH WRN ONTARIO INTO NE MN WHILE            
THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WAS LOCATED OVER ERN MT. AT THE SFC...A             
RIDGE EXTENDED FROM MANITOBA THROUGH THE PLAINS BETWEEN A 995 MB LOW            
OVER WRN OH AND ANOTHER TROUGH/WARM FRONT INTO SRN SASK. A WEAK                 
TROUGH AND BAND OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SUPPORTED BY LOW               
LEVEL CON AND 900-800 MB FGEN WAS ALSO MOVING THROUGH WRN LAKE                  
SUPERIOR. INSTABILITY FOR LES WAS MARGINAL WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND             
-10C. RADAR SHOWED WEAK LES (AOB 15 DBZ) HAD ALSO INCREASED FROM E              
CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR TOWARD MARQUETTE IN RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL CONV              
WITH WEAK LAKE INDUCED TROF                                                     
TODAY...EXPECT WINDS TO VEER NRLY AND INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH THE MOST       
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONV SHIFTING FROM THE WEST TOWARD LOCATIONS                
EAST OF MARQUETTE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE LCL HIGH RES WRF/ARW             
SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER LES BAND IN CONVERGENCE AXIS                 
AHEAD OT THE STRONGER N WINDS...CONFIDENCE IN SUCH DETAILS IS LOW.              
WHILE INSTABILITY MAY BE MARGINAL WITH LAKE-850 MB DELTA/T TO AROUND            
15C...FAVORABLE MOISTURE DEPTH/INVERSION HEIGHTS TO 6K-8K FT WITH A             
DECENT PORTION OF THE CLOUD IN THE FAVORED -12C TO -17C LAYER SHOULD            
ALLOW FOR DECENT SNOW GROWTH WITH ANY SUSTAINED BANDS.                          
SO...MAINLY JUST SCT -SHSN WITH ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH WERE               
MENTIONED WITH LIKELY/NMRS VCNTY KP53 THIS AFTERNOON WHERE                      
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE ARE POSSIBLE.                            
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL SLOWLY BACK TO NW OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE.             
WEAK LAKE INDUCED TROFFING SHOULD KEEP BEST LOW LEVEL CONV FOCUSED              
INTO THE ERN CWA VCNTY KERY WHERE ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF              
AN INCH OR TWO ARE EXPECTED. WITH A WEAK RIDGE MOVING                           
THROUGH...EXPECT ENOUGH CLEARING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST FOR TEMPS TO            
AGAIN DROP BLO GUIDANCE VALUES INTO THE 0 TO -5F RANGE.                         
MON...ALTHOUGH THE NAM MAY BE A BIT WEAK WITH THE MT SHORTWAVE...ITS            
PATH...FARTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS...IS SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF AND               
UKMET. SO...WITH THE BEST 700-500 QVECTOR CONV REMAINING N OF THE               
CWA...ONLY LOWER END CHANCE POPS SEEM REASONABLE AND MAY NEED TO BE             
LOWERED/REMOVED IF THE TREND FROM THE NAM HOLDS UP. THE ABUNDANT                
SFC-925 MB MOISTURE DEPICTED BY THE NAM MAY BE OVERDONE BUT HINTS AT            
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FZDZ WITH THE PRESENCE OF WAA AND 275K-280K              
ISENTROPIC ASCENT.                                                              
TUE AND TUE NIGHT...THE GFS WAS ALSO STRONGER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE        
NEXT SHORTWAVE WHICH MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE NAM               
WAS AGAIN WEAKER AND TOO FAR NORTH COMPARED TO THE FAVORED                      
CANADIAN/ECMWF. LIKE THE MON SYSTEM...THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND BEST              
CHANCE FOR SNOW IS LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA WITH JUST LOWER            
END POPS FOR UPPER MI. THIS COULD ALSO LEAD TO ANOTHER CHANCE FOR               
FZDZ WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE BLO -10C. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF                    
UNCERTAINTY...WITH THE GFS FAVORING MAINLY SNOW...FZDZ WAS NOT                  
INCLUDED YET.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
SAW REMAINS ON THE WRN EDGE OF MSTR THAT ADVECTED ONSHORE EARLIER               
OFF LK MI...SO A SC DECK/MVFR CIG MAY LINGER THERE THRU THE NGT. IF             
THE SC BREAKS UP...SOME FOG MAY FORM AS WELL. LATER TNGT...THE                  
ARRIVAL OF A LOW PRES TROF FM THE W/LLVL MSTR AND LO CLDS NOTED OVER            
MN WL IMPACT CMX FIRST THEN SAW LATER ON. EXPECT LES/LOWER VSBYS TO             
DVLP AT BOTH SITES AS COLDER AND INITIALLY MOISTER AIR (PER 00Z INL             
RAOB) IS DRAWN OVER LK SUP BY INCRSG LLVL NW WIND ON THE NW FLANK OF            
LO PRES MOVING THRU THE LOWER LKS. EXPECT LO CIGS ALL DAY ON SUN AT             
BOTH SITES WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBY TO IFR AT CMX WITH MORE FVRBL LLVL              
UPSLOPE FLOW. DEPARTURE OF DEEPER MSTR IN THE AFTN WL ALLOW SN TO               
DIMINISH AND CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE SOMEWHAT...BUT LO SC DECK/MVFR               
CIGS LIKELY TO LINGER WITH LLVL MSTR TRAPPED UNDER LO INVRN.                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN WINDS AT OR BELOW 30 KNOTS THROUGH THE             
PERIOD.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...JLB                                                                
AVIATION...KC                                                                   
MARINE...KF                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
423 AM EST SUN DEC 16 2007                                                      
LATEST UPDATE...ALL SECTIONS EXCEPT AVIATION...                                 
.SYNOPSIS...(423 AM EST SUN DEC 16 2007)                                        
A STORM SYSTEM OVER NORTH CENTRAL OHIO WILL MOVE TOWARD THE EAST                
COAST TODAY.  SNOWFALL ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER               
OFF INTO THE AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CAUSE            
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  TRAVEL              
WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS INTO THIS EVENING.  THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY              
DIE DOWN TOWARD MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.  THE STORM WILL BE FOLLOWED BY                
RATHER QUIET WEATHER INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS            
SOME SUNSHINE ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.                          
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...(423 AM EST SUN DEC 16 2007)                                      
WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT HEADLINES.  THE MAIN QUESTION GOING INTO THE              
DAYTIME WILL BE THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS.  THE MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM            
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW WE MAY TAP INTO 35+ MPH WINDS FOR A PERIOD            
TODAY.  HOWEVER WE NEED 3 OR MORE HOURS OF THIS STRENGTH OF WIND AND            
FEEL THIS WILL BE A CLOSE CALL OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA CLOSER TO               
THE LOW.  HAVE NOT SEEN ANY REPORTS OF THIS HIGH OF WIND SO                     
FAR...BUT WITH THE DEEPENING LOW IT COULD BE POSSIBLE TOWARD MID                
DAY.  WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT THIS                 
POINT.                                                                          
THE BACK EDGE OF THE INTENSE SNOWFALL WAS ALONG A MUSKEGON TO CLARE             
LINE AT 0830Z AND SLOWLY PRESSING EAST.  WILL KEEP ADDITIONAL                   
SNOWFALL OVER THE NW HALF OF THE CWA INTO THE DAYTIME AT 1 TO 3                 
INCHES... WHILE THE SE HALF WILL STILL SEE ANOTHER 4 TO 6 INCHES.               
THIS WILL LEAVE SOME LOCALES IN THE SE CWA WITH A FOOT OR MORE OF               
SNOW.  ALL AREAS WILL SEE THE SNOW TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE                     
AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER THE HEADLINES WILL RUN THROUGHOUT THE DAY DUE TO            
THE STRONG WINDS AND LOW VISIBILITIES DUE TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING               
SNOW.                                                                           
ATTENTION TURNS TO LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL TONIGHT AS THE STORM                   
DEPARTS.  DELTA T/S WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS ALONG WITH INVERSION               
HEIGHTS NEAR 8K FT EARLY IN THE EVENING.  THERE WILL BE SOME SHEAR              
INVOLVE DUE TO THE BRISK WINDS THAT WILL ONLY SLOWLY DIMINISH INTO              
THE EVENING.  EXPECT SOME LAKE BANDS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD                    
MIDNIGHT AS THE SHEAR AND WIND RELAXES...HOWEVER WITH THE INVERSION             
HEIGHTS CRASHING TOWARD DAYBREAK ANY LAKE EFFECT WILL BE SHORT                  
LIVED.  WILL MENTION AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IN THE FAVORED NW FLOW              
COUNTIES.  FURTHER INLAND TONIGHT...THE BLOWING SNOW WILL GRADUALLY             
DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING.  GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND SOME              
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WELL INLAND ALSO            
THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT ANY ACCUMS WILL BE MINIMAL.                               
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE REGION BY MONDAY WHICH                
WILL DIMINISH ANY LAKE EFFECT TO FLURRIES.  WOULD EXPECT MANY AREAS             
WILL SEE SOME SUNSHINE AS WARMING BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE ALOFT...                 
ERODING THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS INTO THE AFTERNOON.  SOUTHERLY WINDS             
ON TUESDAY WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE                   
FREEZING MARK.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...(423 AM EST SUN DEC 16 2007)                                       
ZONAL FLOW REGIME WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING                
NORTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF                 
LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. SHORTWAVE RIDGING RETURNS             
FOR WEDNESDAY BUT THIS IS SHORT LIVED AS GFS AND ECMWF SHOW PLAINS              
CYCLOGENESIS ON WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIP ARRIVING BY 12Z THURSDAY AND              
POSSIBLY PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY. PRECIP TYPE IS AN ISSUE WITH THE               
00Z GFS SHOWING SNOW AND THE ECMWF SHOWING RAIN. KEPT THE CURRENT               
FORECAST GOING FOR RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA               
AND SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH WHICH IS A REASONABLE COMPROMISE.                     
A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY BE IN THE OFFING FOR SATURDAY AS THE               
GFS HAS BEEN RATHER CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW DAYS IN SHOWING                     
IMPRESSIVE SFC LOW SPINNING UP AND PASTING US WITH HEAVY QPF NEXT               
WEEKEND. LATEST ECMWF HAS A WEAKER SYSTEM MISSING US TO THE SOUTH               
ALTHOUGH EARLIER RUNS ALSO BROUGHT A DEEPER SFC LOW OUR WAY. ADDED              
CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SATURDAY GIVEN THE GFS CONSISTENCY AND SINCE WE            
WERE SURROUNDED BY CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW ON THREE SIDES OF OUR                   
FORECAST AREA.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...(1205 AM EST SUN DEC 16 2007)                                       
WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS SFC LOW                
LIFTS TOWARD OHIO AND INTENSIFIES.  THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST                      
SNOW WITH LOWEST CIGS/VSBYS IS EXPECTED TO BE 09Z-16Z WITH IMPROVING            
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST THEREAFTER. HOWEVER EVEN                
AFTER THE HEAVIEST SNOW MOVES OUT AND CIGS COME UP...VSBYS WILL                 
STILL BE HELD DOWN TO 3-5 MILES (OR POSSIBLY LOWER AT TIMES) BY                 
BLOWING SNOW. SFC WINDS MAY GUST OVER 30 KNOTS AT TIMES ON SUNDAY               
BEFORE DIMINISHING SUNDAY NIGHT.                                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...(423 AM EST SUN DEC 16 2007)                                          
WILL CONTINUE THE GALE WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE NEAR SHORE AS WINDS               
INCREASE TO AT LEAST 35 KNOTS BY DAYBREAK TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO               
TONIGHT. RECENT RUC DATA SUGGESTS 45 KNOTS MAY BE SEEN OVER THE                 
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...(423 AM EST SUN DEC 16 2007)                                       
NO HYDRO ISSUES ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO RISE IN RIVER               
AND TRIBUTARY LEVELS WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND GIVEN AIR TEMPS IN THE             
MID TO UPPER 20S AND ONLY SNOW PREDICTED.  SOME MINOR MELTING IS                
EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID 30S.                           
&&                                                                              
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING MOST OF SW LOWER MI TODAY.                            
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY NW OF A HARRISON TO WHITEHALL LINE               
TODAY.                                                                          
LM...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT TODAY THROUGH 1 AM TONIGHT.                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS:   JK                                                                  
SHORT TERM: JK                                                                  
LONG TERM:  OSTUNO                                                              
AVIATION:   MEADE                                                               
MARINE:     JK                                                                  
HYDROLOGY:  JK                                                                  
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1205 AM EST SUN DEC 16 2007                                                     
LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION...                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...(340 PM EST SAT DEC 15 2007)                                        
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR MEMPHIS WILL TRACK TO NEAR TOLEDO ON               
SUNDAY.  THIS WILL BE A MAJOR WINTER STORM FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.              
THIS STORM WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA LATER SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE            
WILL BUILD IN FOR MONDAY.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...(1011 PM EST SAT DEC 15 2007)                                     
WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT HEADLINES.  LATEST DATA CONTINUES TO SUGGEST              
THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF             
THE CWA...AROUND JXN...WHERE A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW WILL BE                     
POSSIBLE.  SATELLITE PICS SHOW A WELL DEFINED DEFORMATION ZONE WAS              
COMING TOGETHER TO OUR WEST WITH AN AXIS FROM GRB TO STL.  THIS WILL            
SWING OVER THE AREA...INCREASING THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE...                   
PUNCHING UP INTO THE DGZ.  00Z FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INTENSE               
CROSS HAIR OF OMEGA IN THE DGZ BETWEEN 07Z AND 13Z WHEN THE HEAVIEST            
SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR.  SOME AREAS COULD BE PICKING UP TWO OR MORE                
INCHES PER HOUR IN THIS TIME FRAME.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE               
DEVELOPMENT OF THE STORM.  THIS WILL INCLUDE THE STRENGTH OF THE                
WIND THAT IS EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY.  NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BE            
POSSIBLE WITH STRONG WINDS AND LOW VISIBILITIES DUE TO BLOWING SNOW.            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...(340 PM EST SAT DEC 15 2007)                                       
WILL NOT BE ADJUSTING THE LONG TERM SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO THE PENDING            
WINTER STORM IN THE SHORT TERM. MAIN WEATHER OF NOTE WILL BE SYSTEM             
POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE AREA THU THROUGH EARLY FRI. MODELS HAVE               
WEAKENED THE SYSTEM FOR NOW AND MOVE IT OUT QUICKER. STILL LOOKS                
LIKE IT COULD BE A RAIN MAKER...BUT HAVE LEFT THE MIX FOR NOW.                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...(1205 AM EST SUN DEC 16 2007)                                       
WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS SFC LOW                
LIFTS TOWARD OHIO AND INTENSIFIES.  THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST                      
SNOW WITH LOWEST CIGS/VSBYS IS EXPECTED TO BE 09Z-15Z WITH IMPROVING            
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST THEREAFTER. HOWEVER EVEN                
AFTER THE HEAVIEST SNOW MOVES OUT AND CIGS COME UP...VSBYS WILL                 
STILL BE HELD DOWN TO 3-5 MILES (OR POSSIBLY LOWER AT TIMES) BY                 
BLOWING SNOW. SFC WINDS MAY GUST OVER 30 KNOTS AT TIMES ON SUNDAY               
BEFORE DIMINISHING SUNDAY NIGHT.                                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...(340 PM EST SAT DEC 15 2007)                                          
WILL CONTINUE THE GALE WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE NEAR SHORE AS WINDS               
INCREASE TO AT LEAST 35 KNOTS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO              
SUNDAY NIGHT. RECENT RUC DATA SUGGESTS 40 KNOTS MAY BE TOPPED.                  
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...(340 PM EST SAT DEC 15 2007)                                       
NO HYDRO ISSUES ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO RISE IN RIVER               
AND TRIBUTARY LEVELS WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND GIVEN AIR TEMPS IN THE             
MID TO UPPER 20S AND ONLY SNOW PREDICTED.                                       
&&                                                                              
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING MOST OF SW LOWER MI THROUGH SUNDAY.                   
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY NW OF A HARRISON TO WHITEHALL LINE               
THROUGH SUNDAY.                                                                 
LM...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT STARTING DAYBREAK SUNDAY.                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS:   MJS                                                                 
SHORT TERM: MJS/JK                                                              
LONG TERM:  NJJ                                                                 
AVIATION:   MEADE                                                               
MARINE:     MJS                                                                 
HYDROLOGY:  MJS                                                                 
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1011 PM EST SAT DEC 15 2007                                                     
LATEST UPDATE...SHORT TERM...                                                   
.SYNOPSIS...(340 PM EST SAT DEC 15 2007)                                        
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR MEMPHIS WILL TRACK TO NEAR TOLEDO ON               
SUNDAY.  THIS WILL BE A MAJOR WINTER STORM FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.              
THIS STORM WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA LATER SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE            
WILL BUILD IN FOR MONDAY.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...(1011 PM EST SAT DEC 15 2007)                                     
WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT HEADLINES.  LATEST DATA CONTINUES TO SUGGEST              
THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF             
THE CWA...AROUND JXN...WHERE A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW WILL BE                     
POSSIBLE.  SATELLITE PICS SHOW A WELL DEFINED DEFORMATION ZONE WAS              
COMING TOGETHER TO OUR WEST WITH AN AXIS FROM GRB TO STL.  THIS WILL            
SWING OVER THE AREA...INCREASING THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE...                   
PUNCHING UP INTO THE DGZ.  00Z FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INTENSE               
CROSS HAIR OF OMEGA IN THE DGZ BETWEEN 07Z AND 13Z WHEN THE HEAVIEST            
SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR.  SOME AREAS COULD BE PICKING UP TWO OR MORE                
INCHES PER HOUR IN THIS TIME FRAME.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE               
DEVELOPMENT OF THE STORM.  THIS WILL INCLUDE THE STRENGTH OF THE                
WIND THAT IS EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY.  NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BE            
POSSIBLE WITH STRONG WINDS AND LOW VISIBILITIES DUE TO BLOWING SNOW.            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...(340 PM EST SAT DEC 15 2007)                                       
WILL NOT BE ADJUSTING THE LONG TERM SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO THE PENDING            
WINTER STORM IN THE SHORT TERM. MAIN WEATHER OF NOTE WILL BE SYSTEM             
POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE AREA THU THROUGH EARLY FRI. MODELS HAVE               
WEAKENED THE SYSTEM FOR NOW AND MOVE IT OUT QUICKER. STILL LOOKS                
LIKE IT COULD BE A RAIN MAKER...BUT HAVE LEFT THE MIX FOR NOW.                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...(710 PM EST SAT DEC 15 2007)                                        
WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 06Z OR SOONER AS              
SFC LOW PRESSURE NEAR MEM LIFTS TOWARD OHIO AND INTENSIFIES. THIS IS            
WHEN HEAVIER SNOW WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE. THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST             
SNOW WITH LOWEST CIGS/VSBYS IS EXPECTED TO BE 09Z-15Z WITH IMPROVING            
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST THEREAFTER. HOWEVER EVEN                
AFTER THE HEAVIEST SNOW MOVES OUT AND CIGS COME UP...VSBYS WILL                 
STILL BE HELD DOWN TO 3-5 MILES BY BLOWING SNOW. SFC WINDS MAY GUST             
OVER 30 KNOTS AT TIME ON SUNDAY.                                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...(340 PM EST SAT DEC 15 2007)                                          
WILL CONTINUE THE GALE WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE NEAR SHORE AS WINDS               
INCREASE TO AT LEAST 35 KNOTS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO              
SUNDAY NIGHT. RECENT RUC DATA SUGGESTS 40 KNOTS MAY BE TOPPED.                  
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...(340 PM EST SAT DEC 15 2007)                                       
NO HYDRO ISSUES ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO RISE IN RIVER               
AND TRIBUTARY LEVELS WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND GIVEN AIR TEMPS IN THE             
MID TO UPPER 20S AND ONLY SNOW PREDICTED.                                       
&&                                                                              
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING MOST OF SW LOWER MI THROUGH SUNDAY.                   
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY NW OF A HARRISON TO WHITEHALL LINE               
THROUGH SUNDAY.                                                                 
LM...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT STARTING DAYBREAK SUNDAY.                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS:   MJS                                                                 
SHORT TERM: MJS/JK                                                              
LONG TERM:  NJJ                                                                 
AVIATION:   MEADE                                                               
MARINE:     MJS                                                                 
HYDROLOGY:  MJS                                                                 
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
340 PM EST SAT DEC 15 2007                                                      
LATEST UPDATE...ALL BUT AVIATION...                                             
.SYNOPSIS...(340 PM EST SAT DEC 15 2007)                                        
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR MEMPHIS WILL TRACK TO NEAR TOLEDO ON               
SUNDAY.  THIS WILL BE A MAJOR WINTER STORM FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.              
THIS STORM WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA LATER SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE            
WILL BUILD IN FOR MONDAY.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
THE TIMING OF THE HEAVY SNOW AND POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS              
ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM. DECIDED TO START THE                 
WARNING EARLIER.  THE MAIN REASON IS THAT THE DRY SLOT IS NOT                   
EVOLVING AS FORECAST...WITH SOME HEAVY SNOW IN EASTERN IA AT 18Z.               
RADAR TRENDS ACROSS EASTERN MO THROUGH IL SHOW INCREASING                       
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE.  VPZ WAS DOWN TO A HALF MILE AT  19Z.  THE              
SURFACE LOW WAS NEAR MEM AT 19Z AND DEEPER THAN ANY MODEL. THIS LOW             
SHOULD TRACK TO NEAR TOL...WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR SW LOWER MI TO SEE            
A WIDESPREAD WARNING EVENT. THE 18Z RUC AND NAM SUPPORT THIS TRACK.             
STRONGER MID LEVEL FGEN SUPPORTS THE HEAVIEST SNOW SOUTHEAST OF A               
LINE FROM BIV TO MOP.  LOCALLY IN EXCESS OF A FOOT COULD FALL.                  
WILL HOLD OFF ON A BLIZZARD WARNING.  WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE             
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ARE LIKELY.  THE RECENT            
RUC RUN SUGGESTS GUSTS WILL STAY UNDER BLIZZARD WARNING CRITERIA.               
GIVEN THAT THE SNOW WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY...CONSIDERABLE BLOWING               
AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED. EAST WEST ROADS SHOULD BE                 
ESPECIALLY HARD HIT...PERHAPS IMPASSABLE IN PLACES.                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...(340 PM EST SAT DEC 15 2007)                                       
WILL NOT BE ADJUSTING THE LONG TERM SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO THE PENDING            
WINTER STORM IN THE SHORT TERM. MAIN WEATHER OF NOTE WILL BE SYSTEM             
POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE AREA THU THROUGH EARLY FRI. MODELS HAVE               
WEAKENED THE SYSTEM FOR NOW AND MOVE IT OUT QUICKER. STILL LOOKS                
LIKE IT COULD BE A RAIN MAKER...BUT HAVE LEFT THE MIX FOR NOW.                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...(1253 PM EST SAT DEC 15 2007)                                       
LIGHTER SNOW THAT HAS BEEN OCCASIONALLY FALLING AT THE TAF SITES                
THIS MORNING IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT NORTH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND               
WILL GIVE EACH OF THE SITES A RELATIVE LULL BEFORE THE HEART OF THE             
STORM MOVES IN LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MOST SITES             
WILL SEE VFR VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS THROUGH AROUND 21Z IN THE LULL.                
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW NOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING NORTH FROM INDIANA WILL            
BEGIN TO LOWER VSBYS AND CIGS BEGINNING AROUND 20Z FOR KAZO...KBTL...           
AND KJXN...AND MOVE NORTH THEREAFTER.                                           
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFTER 03Z FOR THE SRN TAF             
SITES AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SITES BY 07Z. FROM THIS            
PERIOD THROUGH AROUND 15Z SUN LOOKS TO BE THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WITH            
VLIFR CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. WIND GUSTS             
WILL PICK UP OVERNIGHT AND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY                
12Z. SNOW SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AFTER 15Z...BUT                  
BLOWING AND DRIFTING WILL KEEP VSBYS BELOW 1SM THROUGH THE END OF               
THE PERIOD. WE HAVE BROUGHT CIGS UP A BIT ONCE THE HEAVIEST SNOW                
MOVES OUT AFT 15Z.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...(340 PM EST SAT DEC 15 2007)                                          
WILL CONTINUE THE GALE WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE NEAR SHORE AS WINDS               
INCREASE TO AT LEAST 35 KNOTS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO              
SUNDAY NIGHT. RECENT RUC DATA SUGGESTS 40 KNOTS MAY BE TOPPED.                  
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...(340 PM EST SAT DEC 15 2007)                                       
NO HYDRO ISSUES ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO RISE IN RIVER               
AND TRIBUTARY LEVELS WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND GIVEN AIR TEMPS IN THE             
MID TO UPPER 20S AND ONLY SNOW PREDICTED.                                       
&&                                                                              
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING MOST OF SW LOWER MI THROUGH SUNDAY.                   
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY NW OF A HARRISON TO WHITEHALL LINE               
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.                                                      
LM...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT STARTING DAYBREAK SUNDAY.                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS:   MJS                                                                 
SHORT TERM: MJS                                                                 
LONG TERM:  NJJ                                                                 
AVIATION:   NJJ                                                                 
MARINE:     MJS                                                                 
HYDROLOGY:  MJS                                                                 
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1237 PM EST SAT DEC 15 2007                                                     
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS                                        
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SOUTH FLOW OFF LK MICHIGAN HELPED TO SPREAD FLURRIES FARTHER NORTH              
INTO MARQUETTE AND ALGER/NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT/LUCE COUNTIES. LK                 
EFFECT NEAR LK MICHIGAN VERY TAME WITH QUITE A BIT OF SHEAR IN THE              
SFC-H85 LAYER. TEMPS AT H85 OF -13C GIVE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY BUT             
THE SHEAR AND OVERALL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS LIMITING THE SNOW SHOWERS            
TO MAINLY FLURRIES. DECREASED SKY COVER SOME IN THE WEST CWA BUT                
OVERALL TEMPS/WINDS/SKY GRIDS ARE IN FINE SHAPE.                                
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE LES CHANCES THROUGH SUN NIGHT AND LIGHT                  
SNOW POTENTIAL MON AND TUE.                                                     
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID LEVEL TROUGH FROM                   
MANITOBA TO THE SRN PLAINS AND ANOTHER TROUGH OFFSHORE FROM THE PAC             
NW. A WELL-DEFINED BAROCLINIC LEAF WITH SUPPORTING COUPLED UPPER                
LEVEL JETS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF PCPN FROM THE PLAINS             
INTO THE MS VALLEY. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE NEAR THE BASE OF THE TROUGH            
WAS ALSO MOVING OUT OF NM INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. A WEAKER NRN STREAM            
SHORTWAVE WAS EVIDENT BETWEEN CYQT/KINL. EVEN THOUGH THE LARGE AREA             
OF PCPN REMAINED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...MID               
CLOUDS WERE STREAMING INTO THE REGION. AT THE SFC...A RDG EXTENDED              
FROM WRN QUEBEC INTO WI RESULTING IN ACYC SRLY FLOW THROUGH UPPER               
MI. RADAR INDICATED WEAK RETURNS(AOB 5 DBZ) OFF OF LK MI BTW                    
KSAW/KESC/KISQ. SO FAR...ONLY FLURRIES WITH 7-10SM VSBY WAS REPORTED            
AT KISQ/KESC/KERY. SHALLOW INSTABILITY WITH TEMPS OF -14C AT THE TOP            
OF A 2.5-3.0K FT INVERSION (PER 04Z KPLN TAMDAR SOUNDING) WAS ENOUGH            
TO SUPPORT THE WEAK LES.                                                        
TODAY...MDLS SUGGEST SE WINDS OVER NRN LAKE MI WILL VEER TO                     
MAINLY SOUTH MOST OF THE DAY WITH A WEAK RDG AXIS REMAINING IN PLACE            
BETWEEN THE LOW MOVING INTO THE OH VALLEY AND A TROF OVER CNTRL                 
CANADA. THIS SHOULD KEEP LAKE CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT LES GOING INTO E            
CNTRL UPPER MI. SOME INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE WITH A LONGER            
FETCH OVER THE LAKE DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...CONTINUED ACYC FLOW AND               
SHALLOW CONVECTIVE LAYER SUPPORT ONLY CHANCE POPS WITH ANY                      
ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY ALONG THE SHORELINE...OF AN INCH OR LESS.                  
TONIGHT...THE NRN FRINGE OF THE LARGE PCPN SHIELD WITH THE MID MS               
VALLEY SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY S OF               
THE CWA BUT MAY BRUSH THE FAR SE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A WEAKER NRN              
STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA WITH A DIMINISHING BAND              
OF LIGHT SNOW. SINCE WINDS WILL REMAIN MAINLY SW AHEAD OF THIS                  
FEATURE...ANY ADDITIONAL LES OVER THE NW WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE               
TONIGHT WHEN A SFC TROF AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CONV MOVE INTO THE WEST.             
WITH ONLY WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT AND 850 MB TEMPS ONLY AROUND              
-9C...GOING FCST OF CHANCE POPS WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LESS THAN AN              
INCH STILL SEEMS REASONABLE.                                                    
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AFTER THE WEAK TROF MOVES THROUGH NRLY                
FLOW WILL INCREASE WITH THE WRN LAKES FALLING UNDER THE WRN FRINGE              
OF THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE ERN CONUS STORM. WITH CAA DROPPING 850            
MB TEMPS TO NEAR -12C...EXPECT SCT LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS               
ACROSS MUCH OF NRN UPPER MI. AGAIN WITH ONLY MARGINAL                           
INSTABILITY...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH OR LESS ARE                  
EXPECTED. THE MOST FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHIFTS FROM BTWN             
MARQUETTE AND MUNISING LATE SUNDAY TOWARD GRAND MARAIS/NEWBERRY                 
SUNDAY NIGHT.                                                                   
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW ONE WEAK SHORTWAVE BRUSHING            
N OF LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER AND SLIGHTLY            
FARTHER S WITH ANOTHER SHRTWV TUE. WITH ONLY SPARSE MOISTURE                    
AVBL...BOTH FEATURES WILL BRING ONLY A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. SOME               
FZDZ MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE BOTH LATE MON AND TUE GIVEN WAA AND                   
RELATIVELY MOIST LOW LEVELS AS THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE DEPARTS.                  
MINOR/TRACE PCPN TYPE WAS NOT MENTIONED AT THIS POINT GIVEN                     
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVES AND                
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PROFILES.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF LK MICHIGAN CONTINUES TO BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS            
INTO KSAW. CONSIDERING IFR VSBY NOW OCCURRING UPSTREAM AT KESC...IT             
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE A SIMILAR VSBY THIS                     
AFTN...AT LEAST BRIEFLY. A TROUGH CROSSING TONIGHT WILL BRING A CIG             
BACK TO KCMX THIS EVENING. BY LATE TONIGHT BOTH SITES SHOULD RETURN             
TO MVFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. NNW WIND             
FAVORS KSAW FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT VSBY REDUCTION ON            
SUNDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN WINDS BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE                   
WEEKEND.  IT LOOKS NOW THAT THIS TREND MAY CONTINUE A FEW MORE                  
DAYS...WITH NO GALES FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.                               
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...JLA                                                                    
DISCUSSION...JLB                                                                
AVIATION...JLA                                                                  
MARINE...KF                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1030 AM EST SAT DEC 15 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SOUTH FLOW OFF LK MICHIGAN HELPED TO SPREAD FLURRIES FARTHER NORTH              
INTO MARQUETTE AND ALGER/NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT/LUCE COUNTIES. LK                 
EFFECT NEAR LK MICHIGAN VERY TAME WITH QUITE A BIT OF SHEAR IN THE              
SFC-H85 LAYER. TEMPS AT H85 OF -13C GIVE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY BUT             
THE SHEAR AND OVERALL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS LIMITING THE SNOW SHOWERS            
TO MAINLY FLURRIES. DECREASED SKY COVER SOME IN THE WEST CWA BUT                
OVERALL TEMPS/WINDS/SKY GRIDS ARE IN FINE SHAPE.                                
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE LES CHANCES THROUGH SUN NIGHT AND LIGHT                  
SNOW POTENTIAL MON AND TUE.                                                     
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID LEVEL TROUGH FROM                   
MANITOBA TO THE SRN PLAINS AND ANOTHER TROUGH OFFSHORE FROM THE PAC             
NW. A WELL-DEFINED BAROCLINIC LEAF WITH SUPPORTING COUPLED UPPER                
LEVEL JETS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF PCPN FROM THE PLAINS             
INTO THE MS VALLEY. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE NEAR THE BASE OF THE TROUGH            
WAS ALSO MOVING OUT OF NM INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. A WEAKER NRN STREAM            
SHORTWAVE WAS EVIDENT BETWEEN CYQT/KINL. EVEN THOUGH THE LARGE AREA             
OF PCPN REMAINED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...MID               
CLOUDS WERE STREAMING INTO THE REGION. AT THE SFC...A RDG EXTENDED              
FROM WRN QUEBEC INTO WI RESULTING IN ACYC SRLY FLOW THROUGH UPPER               
MI. RADAR INDICATED WEAK RETURNS(AOB 5 DBZ) OFF OF LK MI BTW                    
KSAW/KESC/KISQ. SO FAR...ONLY FLURRIES WITH 7-10SM VSBY WAS REPORTED            
AT KISQ/KESC/KERY. SHALLOW INSTABILITY WITH TEMPS OF -14C AT THE TOP            
OF A 2.5-3.0K FT INVERSION (PER 04Z KPLN TAMDAR SOUNDING) WAS ENOUGH            
TO SUPPORT THE WEAK LES.                                                        
TODAY...MDLS SUGGEST SE WINDS OVER NRN LAKE MI WILL VEER TO                     
MAINLY SOUTH MOST OF THE DAY WITH A WEAK RDG AXIS REMAINING IN PLACE            
BETWEEN THE LOW MOVING INTO THE OH VALLEY AND A TROF OVER CNTRL                 
CANADA. THIS SHOULD KEEP LAKE CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT LES GOING INTO E            
CNTRL UPPER MI. SOME INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE WITH A LONGER            
FETCH OVER THE LAKE DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...CONTINUED ACYC FLOW AND               
SHALLOW CONVECTIVE LAYER SUPPORT ONLY CHANCE POPS WITH ANY                      
ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY ALONG THE SHORELINE...OF AN INCH OR LESS.                  
TONIGHT...THE NRN FRINGE OF THE LARGE PCPN SHIELD WITH THE MID MS               
VALLEY SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY S OF               
THE CWA BUT MAY BRUSH THE FAR SE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A WEAKER NRN              
STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA WITH A DIMINISHING BAND              
OF LIGHT SNOW. SINCE WINDS WILL REMAIN MAINLY SW AHEAD OF THIS                  
FEATURE...ANY ADDITIONAL LES OVER THE NW WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE               
TONIGHT WHEN A SFC TROF AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CONV MOVE INTO THE WEST.             
WITH ONLY WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT AND 850 MB TEMPS ONLY AROUND              
-9C...GOING FCST OF CHANCE POPS WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LESS THAN AN              
INCH STILL SEEMS REASONABLE.                                                    
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AFTER THE WEAK TROF MOVES THROUGH NRLY                
FLOW WILL INCREASE WITH THE WRN LAKES FALLING UNDER THE WRN FRINGE              
OF THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE ERN CONUS STORM. WITH CAA DROPPING 850            
MB TEMPS TO NEAR -12C...EXPECT SCT LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS               
ACROSS MUCH OF NRN UPPER MI. AGAIN WITH ONLY MARGINAL                           
INSTABILITY...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH OR LESS ARE                  
EXPECTED. THE MOST FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHIFTS FROM BTWN             
MARQUETTE AND MUNISING LATE SUNDAY TOWARD GRAND MARAIS/NEWBERRY                 
SUNDAY NIGHT.                                                                   
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW ONE WEAK SHORTWAVE BRUSHING            
N OF LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER AND SLIGHTLY            
FARTHER S WITH ANOTHER SHRTWV TUE. WITH ONLY SPARSE MOISTURE                    
AVBL...BOTH FEATURES WILL BRING ONLY A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. SOME               
FZDZ MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE BOTH LATE MON AND TUE GIVEN WAA AND                   
RELATIVELY MOIST LOW LEVELS AS THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE DEPARTS.                  
MINOR/TRACE PCPN TYPE WAS NOT MENTIONED AT THIS POINT GIVEN                     
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVES AND                
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PROFILES.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS BRINGING IN MOISTURE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN...AT LEAST            
TO SAW...AND AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER                  
OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS AT BOTH SITES.  EXPECT VFR TO HIGH MVFR CEIGS             
AND VIS AT SAW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  AT THAT TIME...WITH THE                  
TROUGH CROSSING TO THE NORTH AND THE STRONG LOW TO THE                          
SOUTHEAST...WINDS WILL BECOME CALM BEFORE BECOMING NORTHERLY LATE IN            
THE PERIOD.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN WINDS BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE                   
WEEKEND.  IT LOOKS NOW THAT THIS TREND MAY CONTINUE A FEW MORE                  
DAYS...WITH NO GALES FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.                               
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...JLA                                                                    
DISCUSSION...JLB                                                                
AVIATION...KF                                                                   
MARINE...KF                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
650 AM EST SAT DEC 15 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE LES CHANCES THROUGH SUN NIGHT AND LIGHT                  
SNOW POTENTIAL MON AND TUE.                                                     
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID LEVEL TROUGH FROM                   
MANITOBA TO THE SRN PLAINS AND ANOTHER TROUGH OFFSHORE FROM THE PAC             
NW. A WELL-DEFINED BAROCLINIC LEAF WITH SUPPORTING COUPLED UPPER                
LEVEL JETS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF PCPN FROM THE PLAINS             
INTO THE MS VALLEY. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE NEAR THE BASE OF THE TROUGH            
WAS ALSO MOVING OUT OF NM INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. A WEAKER NRN STREAM            
SHORTWAVE WAS EVIDENT BETWEEN CYQT/KINL. EVEN THOUGH THE LARGE AREA             
OF PCPN REMAINED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...MID               
CLOUDS WERE STREAMING INTO THE REGION. AT THE SFC...A RDG EXTENDED              
FROM WRN QUEBEC INTO WI RESULTING IN ACYC SRLY FLOW THROUGH UPPER               
MI. RADAR INDICATED WEAK RETURNS(AOB 5 DBZ) OFF OF LK MI BTW                    
KSAW/KESC/KISQ. SO FAR...ONLY FLURRIES WITH 7-10SM VSBY WAS REPORTED            
AT KISQ/KESC/KERY. SHALLOW INSTABILITY WITH TEMPS OF -14C AT THE TOP            
OF A 2.5-3.0K FT INVERSION (PER 04Z KPLN TAMDAR SOUNDING) WAS ENOUGH            
TO SUPPORT THE WEAK LES.                                                        
TODAY...MDLS SUGGEST SE WINDS OVER NRN LAKE MI WILL VEER TO                     
MAINLY SOUTH MOST OF THE DAY WITH A WEAK RDG AXIS REMAINING IN PLACE            
BETWEEN THE LOW MOVING INTO THE OH VALLEY AND A TROF OVER CNTRL                 
CANADA. THIS SHOULD KEEP LAKE CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT LES GOING INTO E            
CNTRL UPPER MI. SOME INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE WITH A LONGER            
FETCH OVER THE LAKE DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...CONTINUED ACYC FLOW AND               
SHALLOW CONVECTIVE LAYER SUPPORT ONLY CHANCE POPS WITH ANY                      
ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY ALONG THE SHORELINE...OF AN INCH OR LESS.                  
TONIGHT...THE NRN FRINGE OF THE LARGE PCPN SHIELD WITH THE MID MS               
VALLEY SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY S OF               
THE CWA BUT MAY BRUSH THE FAR SE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A WEAKER NRN              
STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA WITH A DIMINISHING BAND              
OF LIGHT SNOW. SINCE WINDS WILL REMAIN MAINLY SW AHEAD OF THIS                  
FEATURE...ANY ADDITIONAL LES OVER THE NW WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE               
TONIGHT WHEN A SFC TROF AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CONV MOVE INTO THE WEST.             
WITH ONLY WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT AND 850 MB TEMPS ONLY AROUND              
-9C...GOING FCST OF CHANCE POPS WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LESS THAN AN              
INCH STILL SEEMS REASONABLE.                                                    
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AFTER THE WEAK TROF MOVES THROUGH NRLY                
FLOW WILL INCREASE WITH THE WRN LAKES FALLING UNDER THE WRN FRINGE              
OF THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE ERN CONUS STORM. WITH CAA DROPPING 850            
MB TEMPS TO NEAR -12C...EXPECT SCT LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS               
ACROSS MUCH OF NRN UPPER MI. AGAIN WITH ONLY MARGINAL                           
INSTABILITY...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH OR LESS ARE                  
EXPECTED. THE MOST FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHIFTS FROM BTWN             
MARQUETTE AND MUNISING LATE SUNDAY TOWARD GRAND MARAIS/NEWBERRY                 
SUNDAY NIGHT.                                                                   
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW ONE WEAK SHORTWAVE BRUSHING            
N OF LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER AND SLIGHTLY            
FARTHER S WITH ANOTHER SHRTWV TUE. WITH ONLY SPARSE MOISTURE                    
AVBL...BOTH FEATURES WILL BRING ONLY A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. SOME               
FZDZ MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE BOTH LATE MON AND TUE GIVEN WAA AND                   
RELATIVELY MOIST LOW LEVELS AS THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE DEPARTS.                  
MINOR/TRACE PCPN TYPE WAS NOT MENTIONED AT THIS POINT GIVEN                     
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVES AND                
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PROFILES.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS BRINGING IN MOISTURE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN...AT LEAST            
TO SAW...AND AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER                  
OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS AT BOTH SITES.  EXPECT VFR TO HIGH MVFR CEIGS             
AND VIS AT SAW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  AT THAT TIME...WITH THE                  
TROUGH CROSSING TO THE NORTH AND THE STRONG LOW TO THE                          
SOUTHEAST...WINDS WILL BECOME CALM BEFORE BECOMING NORTHERLY LATE IN            
THE PERIOD.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN WINDS BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE                   
WEEKEND.  IT LOOKS NOW THAT THIS TREND MAY CONTINUE A FEW MORE                  
DAYS...WITH NO GALES FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.                               
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...JLB                                                                
AVIATION...KF                                                                   
MARINE...KF                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1201 AM EST SAT DEC 15 2007                                                     
UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS                                                            
.UPDATE...                                                                      
LOWERED FCST MIN TEMPS OVER THE KEWEENAW/ARND ERY TO ACCOUNT FOR                
EARLIER CLRG IN THESE AREAS. BUMPED UP FCST LO TEMPS A FEW DEGREES              
AND ADDED SOME FLURRIES/ISOLD -SHRA NEAR THE BAY OF GREEN BAY/LK MI             
W OF ISQ TO ACCOUNT FOR SC NOW IN THIS AREA TRAPPED UNDER LO INVRN              
SHOWN ON THE 00Z GRB RAOB. RUC13 SHOWS VORTEX DVLPG IN THIS AREA                
OVERNGT. WITH LARGER SCALE FLOW TENDING TO TURN SE AS HI PRES RDG               
AXIS DRIFTS ACRS THE FA INTO SE CAN BY 12Z...SOME SHSN MAY DRIFT                
ONSHORE IN THESE AREAS.                                                         
KC                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
LARGE SCALE PATTERN FEATURES TROUGH OVER ROCKIES WITH WSW FLOW INTO             
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. TROUGH OVER HUDSON BAY CONTINUES TO PROPEL               
COLD AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES. H85 TEMPS -15C TO -20C ARE SLIDING               
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...SPURRING ON ONGOING LK EFFECT. LACK OF MIDDLE            
AND HIGH CLOUDS IS ALLOWING VISIBLE SATELLITE TO PROVIDE GOOD LOOK              
AT THE LK EFFECT. MULTIPLE SNOW SHOWERS ARE IMPACTING NORTHERN                  
KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND NORTH CENTRAL ZONES FM EASTERN MARQUETTE INTO            
LUCE COUNTIES. MAJORITY OF THE LK EFFECT CLOUD DEPTH WITHIN BETTER              
TEMPS FOR SNOW GROWTH IS ALLOWING HIGH SNOW TO WATER RATIOS WITH THE            
SNOW. IN GENERAL...LACK OF DOMINANT BANDING IS NOT ALLOWING ACCUMS              
MORE THAN A FEW INCHES IN ANY ONE LOCATION.                                     
SINCE 950-900MB WINDS REMAIN ONSHORE...EXPECT LIGHT LK EFFECT SNOW              
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. BTWN 03Z-06Z WINDS              
IN THE LK EFFECT CLOUD LAYER SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AS RIDGE              
AXIS OVER MN MOVES ACROSS. 280K (800-700MB) ISENTROPIC LIFT ON                  
BACK SIDE OF RIDGE IS DRIVING A SWATH OF MID CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN MN            
BUT THESE SHOULD NOT IMPACT FORECAST AREA AS THEY STAY TO THE NORTH             
AND/OR DISSIPPATE. SOME CIRRUS IS STREAMING INTO SOUTHERN MN ATTM               
TOO...BUT AGAIN MOST OF THIS SHOULD REMAIN OVER WI. CLEARING SKIES              
AFTER LK EFFECT ENDS...LIGHT WINDS...AND A DRY AIRMASS WITH PWATS               
AROUND 0.10 COMBINE TO PRODUCE VERY COLD MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.              
UPSTREAM MINS IN NORTHEAST MN THIS MORNING BOTTOMED OUT IN THE ZERO             
TO 10 BELOW RANGE WITH COLD SPOTS DOWN TO -25F. EXPECT SIMILAR                  
READINGS OVER CWA...BUT DID GO WITH "WARMER" TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE                
SINGLE DIGITS CLOSE TO LK SUPERIOR SHORE DUE TO DEVELOPING LAND                 
BREEZES.                                                                        
INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW ON SATURDAY ON BACK SIDE OF RIDGE               
WILL BRING CHANCE OF LK EFFECT OFF LK MICHIGAN. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST               
MIXED LAYER RISES TO H85...PERHAPS H8. TEMPS AT INVERSION TOP YIELD             
DELTA T/S OF 17-18C. SOME CONVERGENCE HINTED AT AS WELL OVER                    
SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY. MODEL OUTPUT NOT HITTING THIS AREA FOR             
MUCH QPF/SNOW BUT PATTERN RECOGNITION SUGGESTS ORGANIZED SNOW                   
SHOWERS FM FAR EASTERN DELTA INTO SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY ARE LIKELY.                
MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR FOR STRONGER LK EFFECT IS AREA FIRMLY IN GRIP            
OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS AND               
1-3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. IF CONVERGENCE BAND SETS UP                         
RIGHT...COULD SEE EVEN A BIT MORE SNOW. AWAY FM THE LK MICHIGAN                 
SHORE...WX SHOULD BE QUIET WITH JUST INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTN              
AHEAD OF SFC TROUGH APPROACHING FM THE NORTH.                                   
.LONG TERM...PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL BRING A SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS            
THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.                                
PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WEAK             
RIDGING OVER THE WRN/ERN COASTS. INITIAL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL                
PLAINS WILL BRING STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST COAST AS IT            
MOVES EAST ON SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. SOME ENERGY ASSOCIATED               
WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES THROUGH ON SAT NIGHT AND INTO            
SUNDAY...BEFORE WEAK RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR SUN AFTN AND              
EVENING. WINDS TURN FAVORABLE FOR SOME LES ALONG LK SUPERIOR...WITH             
WINDS TURNING TO 320-330. LIMITING FACTORS ARE THE SHORT RESIDENCE              
TIME FOR FAVORABLE WINDS...BEFORE THEY BEGIN TO BACK AND WEAKEN AS A            
WEAK RIDGE MOVES OVER ON SUN AFT TO EVENING. INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE              
AROUND 3-4KFT...WITH THE TOP OF THE CLOUDS IN THE -12-15C                       
RANGE...SHOULD PROVIDE DECENT SNOW GROWTH AND BRING SOME LIGHT                  
ACCUMULATIONS TO AREAS NEAR LK SUPERIOR.                                        
NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ALONG THE U.S./CAN BORDER ON SUN NIGHT AND            
INTO MON. SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE H500 FEATURES AS GFS/ECMWF ARE                
SIMILAR AND NAM IS FARTHER N. AT THE SFC...WEAK SFC TROUGH PUSHES               
THROUGH WITH THE WAVE AND EXITS ON MON EVENING. WEAK H850 WAA AND               
H500-300DIVQ...ALONG WITH DECENT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LAPSE                   
RATES...SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ON                 
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER LK SUPERIOR. H500 HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE ON             
MON NIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR MON NIGHT AND TUES                
MORN. 00/12Z GFS/ECMWF EJECT NEXT WEAK CLIPPER FOR TUES AFTN THROUGH            
WED...WITH GFS BEING A LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE H500 WAVE ON              
THE 00Z RUN. ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE SYSTEM RUNNING ALONG THE                     
U.S./CANADA BORDER...EXPECT MOST OF THE PCPN TO REMAIN OVER OR NEAR             
LK SUPERIOR. IN ADDITION...WITH H500 HEIGHTS RISING INTO THE MID                
540DAMS...AREA MAY SEE SOME ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND AROUND FREEZING              
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.                                                      
BOTH 00/12Z GFS/ECMWF/EFS ENS SHOWING ANOTHER H500 TROUGH AND SFC               
SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR THURS/FRI...WHICH MAY BRING SOME             
PCPN TO THE CWA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST...AS IT LIFTS NE AND                 
INTENSIFIES.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT SAW THRU THE NGT...BUT UPSLOPE SLY FLOW OFF            
LK MI WL ADVECT SC NOW OBSVD NEAR THE BAY OF GREEN BAY UNDER SHARP              
INVRN DEPICTED ON 00Z GRB RAOB INTO THE AREA EARLY SAT MRNG. GFS/NAM            
FCST SDNGS HINT THE SC WL LINGER THRU THE DAY BEFORE SOMEWHAT DRIER             
AIR ARRIVES ON SAT EVNG. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE AT CMX            
THIS FCST PD WITH SSW FLOW BTWN HI PRES TO THE E AND A LOW PRES TROF            
PUSHING TOWARD THE UPR GRT LKS FM THE W LATE SAT. UPSTREAM AIRMASS              
ACRS SRN MN IS RATHER DRY PER THE 00Z MPX SDNG...AND MOISTER                    
TRAJECTORIES OFF LK MI WL MISS THE KEWEENAW TO THE E.                           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
AFTER THE STRONG WINDS THE LAST 24 HRS...WINDS BLO 25 KNOTS THROUGH             
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER MINNESOTA SLOWLY MOVES                  
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY INTO                  
TUESDAY IN WAKE OF SFC LOW THAT CROSSES THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION. AT            
THIS TIME...NO GALES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.                           
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...KC                                                                     
SHORT TERM...JLA                                                                
LONG TERM...SRF                                                                 
AVIATION...KC                                                                   
MARINE...JLA                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT                                             
942 AM MST SUN DEC 16 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...                  
QUICK UPDATE TO BOOST HIGH TEMPS MOST PLACES TODAY GIVEN LATEST                 
OBSERVED TRENDS. 12Z GGW RAOB CAPTURED A SHALLOW INVERSION AND                  
WITH ABUNDANT INSOLATION THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST 1K FEET OR SO                 
OF MIXING. LATEST RUC IS MOST REASONABLE WITH THIS SOLUTION AND                 
HAVE TRENDED IN ITS DIRECTION. COUPLE SNOW SHOWERS IN LOWER                     
SASKATCHEWAN PIVOTING AROUND THE 500MB VORT MAX WILL STAY JUST                  
OUTSIDE THE CWA SO HAVE REDUCED CLOUDS IN THIS AREA. MCZ                        
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT AFFECTED THE AREA SATURDAY NOW MOVING OFF                
TO THE EAST WITH AN UPPER RIDGE SLATED TO MOVE IN TODAY. STALLED                
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA SHOULD BE                    
PUSHED OUT TODAY WITH THE INCOMING RIDGE...ALLOWING ALL OF THE CWA              
TO BE DECENTLY MILD WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. UPPER RIDGE                 
STAY IS FAIRLY BRIEF AS IT MOVES OFF INTO THE DAKOTAS BY MIDDAY                 
MONDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES INTO WESTERN MONTANA.               
RELATIVELY MILD AIR REMAIN MONDAY MAKING FOR ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL               
TEMPERATURE DAY FOR MOST. MONDAY NIGHT THE AFOREMENTIONED                       
SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AS IT WEAKENS. MODELS                      
INDICATING A DEARTH OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE...IN ADDITION TO              
IT WEAKENING. WILL THUS LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY. THIS DISTURBANCE                
DOES PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THRU WHICH COOLS THINGS JUST A BIT FOR              
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK UPPER RIDGE MOVES IN. IN A                              
NUTSHELL...CONTINUED DRY WITH AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL                    
TEMPERATURES THRU TUESDAY.                                                      
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...                                    
THE QUIET WEATHER WE HAD OF LATE TO CONTINUE. A WESTERLY FLOW                   
ALOFT WILL BE KEEPING TEMPS MODERATE AND STILL NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS         
IN SIGHT. MODELS HAVE A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE                 
AREA...BUT THE ONLY ONE WORTH ANY POPS WOULD SEEM TO BE THE SYSTEM              
THAT ARRIVES FROM THE W THU. MOST MODELS HAVE SURFACE LOW MOVING                
JUST TO OUR N THEN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY LIGHT SNOW IN NE MT            
OCCURRING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE THU NIGHT AND FRI AS A                  
STRONG SPLITTING PATTERN AGAIN LEAVES NE MT IN THE WEAKER NW FLOW               
ALOFT.                                                                          
TEMPS TYPICALLY WILL BE TOUGHER...BUT MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD                 
AGREEMENT IN HAVING THICKNESSES IN THE 530S WED...THEN FALLING                  
BACK TO THE 510S FRI. WESTERLY FLOW AT ALL LEVELS FOR AWHILE                    
SHOULD PRODUCE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA                        
WED...THEN A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NW BRINGS CLEARING SKIES               
AND THE COLDEST TEMPS FRI NIGHT...MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS...WITH A                 
FEW PLACES N BELOW ZERO AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO -12C IN OUR N.                  
HAVE STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO MOS ON TEMPS. THICKNESSES CLIMB BACK                
TO 530S OR HIGHER WITH UPPER RIDGING TAKING PLACE OVER THE WESTERN              
STATES SUNDAY. SIMONSEN                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WEST WINDS BECOMING GUSTY IN THE                  
LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN DROPPING OFF AROUND SUNSET.              
RAE                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW                                                             
</pre> mt                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
1143 AM CST SAT DEC 15 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...HAVE LET SNOW ADVIOSRY EXPIRE.                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 AM CST SAT DEC 15 2007/                        
UPDATE...SNOW CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS                 
DEFORMATION AXIS IS LIKELY STRETCHING. CLEARING LINE HAS ALREADY                
MOVED INTO NORTHEAST NEB AND WL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SEWD THRU THE                 
DAY. WL LET ADVISORY EXPIRE OVR SRN COUNTIES AT NOON. UPDATED                   
GRIDS OUT SOON.                                                                 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CST SAT DEC 15 2007/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
ON-GOING SNOW ACROSS THE CWA...AND ITS AFFECT ON TEMPERATURES OVER              
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.                      
WIDE SWATH OF SNOW DEVELOPED FRIDAY EVENING PRETTY MUCH AS                      
FORECAST...AND CONTINUES THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.                   
REPORTS OF SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN SPOTTY SO FAR...BUT IT APPEARS                
THE RANGE IS AROUND 2 INCHES IN THE OMAHA AREA TO 4 OR 5 ALONG THE              
KANSAS BORDER. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW HIGHEST REFLECTIVITIES                  
SHIFTING FROM OUR SOUTHWEST CWA TO THE EAST AND WAS FOCUSED ACROSS              
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA. GFS...NAM...AND RUC MODELS              
ALL POINTED TO THIS TREND THIS MORNING AND NOW HAVE RADAR TO BACK               
THEM UP. EVEN THOUGH HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS ARE SHIFTING EAST...WE                 
SHOULD SEE CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING WITH                
APPROACHING VORT MAX FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THIS              
VORT IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS HEADING NORTHEAST...SO WILL HAVE AT                    
LEAST SEVERAL HOURS OF INDUCED UPWARD MOTION AHEAD OF IT. A                     
CLASSIC DEFORMATION ZONE WAS ALSO NOTED ON SATELLITE LOOPS                      
BISECTING THE CWA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...WITH A MARKED                   
REDUCTION IN RADAR RETURNS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DRY                          
SLOT/DEFORMATION ZONE BOUNDARY.                                                 
MODELS ARE ALSO IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH QPF FORECASTS THROUGH                  
18Z. 06Z TO 12Z FORECASTS ARE ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH ALONG THE                
PLATTE RIVER TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH NEAR THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI               
STATE LINES....THEN ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z                
FROM ABOUT INTERSTATE 80 TO THE SOUTHEAST. SO FROM NOW TIL                      
NOON...THIS WOULD EQUATE TO ANOTHER 1 OR 2 INCHES ALONG THE PLATTE              
RIVER AND INTERSTATE 80 TO ABOUT 2 OR 3 INCHES IN SOUTHEAST                     
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. STORM TOTAL SNOW SHOULD RANGE FROM AN              
INCH OR SO IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...2 TO 4 ALONG INTERSTATE                      
80...AND 4 TO 6 IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND FAR SOUTHWEST IOWA. WE                
MAY SEE A COUPLE OF TOTALS COMING IN A BIT HIGHER...BUT WITH                    
STRONGEST LIFT BEGINNING TO WIND DOWN...DO NOT THINK TOTALS WILL                
GET MUCH HIGHER THAN THOSE JUST MENTIONED.                                      
AS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST TODAY...SNOW SHOULD REALLY BE WINDING               
DOWN BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH LINGERING SNOWS IN THE SOUTHEAST                 
CWA. HAVE BROUGHT AN END TO ALL MENTION OF SNOW BY 00Z.                         
QUESTION THEN TURNS TO TEMPERATURES. FOR TODAY...NORTH                          
WIND...FRESH SNOW AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD TEMPS IN                
THE LOWER 20S AT BEST. CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN                      
OVERNIGHT LOWS. BOTH NAM AND GFS SHOW LOW CLOUDS SLOWLY WORKING                 
EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER BY MORNING WITH LIGHT WESTERLY LOW                   
LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION TO SET UP WHEN                    
SKIES CLEAR...SO TEMPS SHOULD REALLY FALL OFF. HAVE ALL LOWS IN                 
THE SINGLE DIGITS...AND HAVE GONE BELOW COLDEST MOS GUIDANCE                    
NUMBERS. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SUB-ZERO READINGS IN DEEPEST SNOW                 
SUNDAY MORNING.                                                                 
DESPITE NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY...WEAK WESTERLY FLOW AND                 
COLD START WILL KEEP TEMPS WELL BELOW GUIDANCE AGAIN. HAVE PUT                  
HIGHS IN THE 20S...BUT AGAIN COULD SEE SOME READINGS HOLD IN THE                
TEENS. STRONGER SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP FOR EARLY NEXT                  
WEEK AS FAST ZONAL FLOW INDUCES LOWERING PRESSURES IN THE HIGH                  
PLAINS. THE SOUTH WINDS AND SUNSHINE WILL HELP MELT SNOW AND WARM               
TEMPS...BUT SHOULD SEE LASTING COOL TEMPERATURE BIAS THROUGH THE                
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.                                                             
HAVE LEFT THE REST OF THE FORECAST UNCHANGED. NEXT POTENTIALLY                  
POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM MAY BE ON THE HORIZON FOR SATURDAY AS BOTH                
GFS AND ECMWF BRING IN A SYSTEM SIMILAR TO OUR CURRENT ONE NEXT                 
SATURDAY.                                                                       
AVIATION...                                                                     
IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING AT KOMA AND KLNK            
WITH MVFR AT KOFK. IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTN AS JET AXIS             
AND BETTER FORCING SHIFTS EAST.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE..                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BG                                                                              
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
1057 AM CST SAT DEC 15 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...SNOW CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS                
DEFORMATION AXIS IS LIKELY STRETCHING. CLEARING LINE HAS ALREADY                
MOVED INTO NORTHEAST NEB AND WL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SEWD THRU THE                 
DAY. WL LET ADVISORY EXPIRE OVR SRN COUNTIES AT NOON. UPDATED                   
GRIDS OUT SOON.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CST SAT DEC 15 2007/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
ON-GOING SNOW ACROSS THE CWA...AND ITS AFFECT ON TEMPERATURES OVER              
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.                      
WIDE SWATH OF SNOW DEVELOPED FRIDAY EVENING PRETTY MUCH AS                      
FORECAST...AND CONTINUES THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.                   
REPORTS OF SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN SPOTTY SO FAR...BUT IT APPEARS                
THE RANGE IS AROUND 2 INCHES IN THE OMAHA AREA TO 4 OR 5 ALONG THE              
KANSAS BORDER. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW HIGHEST REFLECTIVITIES                  
SHIFTING FROM OUR SOUTHWEST CWA TO THE EAST AND WAS FOCUSED ACROSS              
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA. GFS...NAM...AND RUC MODELS              
ALL POINTED TO THIS TREND THIS MORNING AND NOW HAVE RADAR TO BACK               
THEM UP. EVEN THOUGH HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS ARE SHIFTING EAST...WE                 
SHOULD SEE CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING WITH                
APPROACHING VORT MAX FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THIS              
VORT IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS HEADING NORTHEAST...SO WILL HAVE AT                    
LEAST SEVERAL HOURS OF INDUCED UPWARD MOTION AHEAD OF IT. A                     
CLASSIC DEFORMATION ZONE WAS ALSO NOTED ON SATELLITE LOOPS                      
BISECTING THE CWA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...WITH A MARKED                   
REDUCTION IN RADAR RETURNS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DRY                          
SLOT/DEFORMATION ZONE BOUNDARY.                                                 
MODELS ARE ALSO IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH QPF FORECASTS THROUGH                  
18Z. 06Z TO 12Z FORECASTS ARE ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH ALONG THE                
PLATTE RIVER TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH NEAR THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI               
STATE LINES....THEN ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z                
FROM ABOUT INTERSTATE 80 TO THE SOUTHEAST. SO FROM NOW TIL                      
NOON...THIS WOULD EQUATE TO ANOTHER 1 OR 2 INCHES ALONG THE PLATTE              
RIVER AND INTERSTATE 80 TO ABOUT 2 OR 3 INCHES IN SOUTHEAST                     
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. STORM TOTAL SNOW SHOULD RANGE FROM AN              
INCH OR SO IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...2 TO 4 ALONG INTERSTATE                      
80...AND 4 TO 6 IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND FAR SOUTHWEST IOWA. WE                
MAY SEE A COUPLE OF TOTALS COMING IN A BIT HIGHER...BUT WITH                    
STRONGEST LIFT BEGINNING TO WIND DOWN...DO NOT THINK TOTALS WILL                
GET MUCH HIGHER THAN THOSE JUST MENTIONED.                                      
AS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST TODAY...SNOW SHOULD REALLY BE WINDING               
DOWN BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH LINGERING SNOWS IN THE SOUTHEAST                 
CWA. HAVE BROUGHT AN END TO ALL MENTION OF SNOW BY 00Z.                         
QUESTION THEN TURNS TO TEMPERATURES. FOR TODAY...NORTH                          
WIND...FRESH SNOW AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD TEMPS IN                
THE LOWER 20S AT BEST. CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN                      
OVERNIGHT LOWS. BOTH NAM AND GFS SHOW LOW CLOUDS SLOWLY WORKING                 
EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER BY MORNING WITH LIGHT WESTERLY LOW                   
LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION TO SET UP WHEN                    
SKIES CLEAR...SO TEMPS SHOULD REALLY FALL OFF. HAVE ALL LOWS IN                 
THE SINGLE DIGITS...AND HAVE GONE BELOW COLDEST MOS GUIDANCE                    
NUMBERS. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SUB-ZERO READINGS IN DEEPEST SNOW                 
SUNDAY MORNING.                                                                 
DESPITE NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY...WEAK WESTERLY FLOW AND                 
COLD START WILL KEEP TEMPS WELL BELOW GUIDANCE AGAIN. HAVE PUT                  
HIGHS IN THE 20S...BUT AGAIN COULD SEE SOME READINGS HOLD IN THE                
TEENS. STRONGER SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP FOR EARLY NEXT                  
WEEK AS FAST ZONAL FLOW INDUCES LOWERING PRESSURES IN THE HIGH                  
PLAINS. THE SOUTH WINDS AND SUNSHINE WILL HELP MELT SNOW AND WARM               
TEMPS...BUT SHOULD SEE LASTING COOL TEMPERATURE BIAS THROUGH THE                
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.                                                             
HAVE LEFT THE REST OF THE FORECAST UNCHANGED. NEXT POTENTIALLY                  
POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM MAY BE ON THE HORIZON FOR SATURDAY AS BOTH                
GFS AND ECMWF BRING IN A SYSTEM SIMILAR TO OUR CURRENT ONE NEXT                 
SATURDAY.                                                                       
AVIATION...                                                                     
IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING AT KOMA AND KLNK            
WITH MVFR AT KOFK. IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTN AS JET AXIS             
AND BETTER FORCING SHIFTS EAST.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NEZ068-078-088>093.                 
IA...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR IAZ090-091.                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GRIFFIS                                                                         
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
319 AM CST SAT DEC 15 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ON-GOING SNOW ACROSS THE CWA...AND ITS AFFECT ON TEMPERATURES OVER              
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.                      
WIDE SWATH OF SNOW DEVELOPED FRIDAY EVENING PRETTY MUCH AS                      
FORECAST...AND CONTINUES THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.                   
REPORTS OF SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN SPOTTY SO FAR...BUT IT APPEARS                
THE RANGE IS AROUND 2 INCHES IN THE OMAHA AREA TO 4 OR 5 ALONG THE              
KANSAS BORDER. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW HIGHEST REFLECTIVITIES                  
SHIFTING FROM OUR SOUTHWEST CWA TO THE EAST AND WAS FOCUSED ACROSS              
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA. GFS...NAM...AND RUC MODELS              
ALL POINTED TO THIS TREND THIS MORNING AND NOW HAVE RADAR TO BACK               
THEM UP. EVEN THOUGH HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS ARE SHIFTING EAST...WE                 
SHOULD SEE CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING WITH                
APPROACHING VORT MAX FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THIS              
VORT IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS HEADING NORTHEAST...SO WILL HAVE AT                    
LEAST SEVERAL HOURS OF INDUCED UPWARD MOTION AHEAD OF IT. A                     
CLASSIC DEFORMATION ZONE WAS ALSO NOTED ON SATELLITE LOOPS                      
BISECTING THE CWA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...WITH A MARKED                   
REDUCTION IN RADAR RETURNS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DRY                          
SLOT/DEFORMATION ZONE BOUNDARY.                                                 
MODELS ARE ALSO IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH QPF FORECASTS THROUGH                  
18Z. 06Z TO 12Z FORECASTS ARE ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH ALONG THE                
PLATTE RIVER TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH NEAR THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI               
STATE LINES....THEN ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z                
FROM ABOUT INTERSTATE 80 TO THE SOUTHEAST. SO FROM NOW TIL                      
NOON...THIS WOULD EQUATE TO ANOTHER 1 OR 2 INCHES ALONG THE PLATTE              
RIVER AND INTERSTATE 80 TO ABOUT 2 OR 3 INCHES IN SOUTHEAST                     
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. STORM TOTAL SNOW SHOULD RANGE FROM AN              
INCH OR SO IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...2 TO 4 ALONG INTERSTATE                      
80...AND 4 TO 6 IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND FAR SOUTHWEST IOWA. WE                
MAY SEE A COUPLE OF TOTALS COMING IN A BIT HIGHER...BUT WITH                    
STRONGEST LIFT BEGINNING TO WIND DOWN...DO NOT THINK TOTALS WILL                
GET MUCH HIGHER THAN THOSE JUST MENTIONED.                                      
AS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST TODAY...SNOW SHOULD REALLY BE WINDING               
DOWN BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH LINGERING SNOWS IN THE SOUTHEAST                 
CWA. HAVE BROUGHT AN END TO ALL MENTION OF SNOW BY 00Z.                         
QUESTION THEN TURNS TO TEMPERATURES. FOR TODAY...NORTH                          
WIND...FRESH SNOW AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD TEMPS IN                
THE LOWER 20S AT BEST. CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN                      
OVERNIGHT LOWS. BOTH NAM AND GFS SHOW LOW CLOUDS SLOWLY WORKING                 
EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER BY MORNING WITH LIGHT WESTERLY LOW                   
LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION TO SET UP WHEN                    
SKIES CLEAR...SO TEMPS SHOULD REALLY FALL OFF. HAVE ALL LOWS IN                 
THE SINGLE DIGITS...AND HAVE GONE BELOW COLDEST MOS GUIDANCE                    
NUMBERS. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SUB-ZERO READINGS IN DEEPEST SNOW                 
SUNDAY MORNING.                                                                 
DESPITE NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY...WEAK WESTERLY FLOW AND                 
COLD START WILL KEEP TEMPS WELL BELOW GUIDANCE AGAIN. HAVE PUT                  
HIGHS IN THE 20S...BUT AGAIN COULD SEE SOME READINGS HOLD IN THE                
TEENS. STRONGER SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP FOR EARLY NEXT                  
WEEK AS FAST ZONAL FLOW INDUCES LOWERING PRESSURES IN THE HIGH                  
PLAINS. THE SOUTH WINDS AND SUNSHINE WILL HELP MELT SNOW AND WARM               
TEMPS...BUT SHOULD SEE LASTING COOL TEMPERATURE BIAS THROUGH THE                
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.                                                             
HAVE LEFT THE REST OF THE FORECAST UNCHANGED. NEXT POTENTIALLY                  
POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM MAY BE ON THE HORIZON FOR SATURDAY AS BOTH                
GFS AND ECMWF BRING IN A SYSTEM SIMILAR TO OUR CURRENT ONE NEXT                 
SATURDAY.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING AT KOMA AND KLNK            
WITH MVFR AT KOFK. IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTN AS JET AXIS             
AND BETTER FORCING SHIFTS EAST.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NEZ068-078-088>093.                 
IA...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR IAZ090-091.                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DERGAN/FOBERT                                                                   
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
1052 AM EST SAT DEC 15 2007                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT              
TIMES TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN                         
CAROLINAS...AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES UP ALONG THE MID                
ATLANTIC COAST EARLY SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL SWING A STRONG COLD FRONT             
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN            
TO THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF            
THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.                                               
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES WEDGE HOLDING STRONG OVER THE               
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE WITH TEMPS STEADY IN THE MID 40S FAR               
INLAND WITH LOWER TO MID 50S COAST AND OUTER BANKS. HAVE DECREASED              
TEMPS TODAY AS LATEST RUC INDICATES THE WEDGE WILL HOLD IN PLACE                
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE WEAKENING THIS EVENING. TEMPS EXPECTED               
TO RISE ONLY A FEW MORE DEGREES WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO               
NEAR LOWER 50S FAR INLAND MID TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE BEACHES AND                
OUTER BANKS. NO ADJUSTMENT TO POPS FOR TODAY AS MODELS INDICATE                 
LIGHT PRECIP BREAKING OUT THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS                 
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA.                                     
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...                               
PCPN WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES TNGT WITH ENHANCEMENT BY JET                    
DYNAMICS AND DEEP MOISTURE INFLOW. PRECIP WATRS INCREASING TO NEAR 2            
INCHES AND EXPECTING RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY ONE TO ONE HALF INCH             
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS PSBL BY THE TIME PCPN COMES TO AN END               
SUN MORN. VERY HIGH SHEAR/HELICITY VALUES TNGT SUGGS ROTATING STORMS            
LIKELY BUT WEAK INSTABILITY MAY INHIBIT ABILITY TO TAP HIGHER WINDS             
ALOFT. WHILE SPC SLIGHT RISK SVR AREA STOPS JUST SW OF MHX FCST                 
AREA...CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED STRONG/SVR WIND GUST OR EVEN A TORNADO            
OR TWO DURING THE OVRNGT HOURS. TEMPS NEARLY STEADY THIS EVE THEN               
RISING OVRNGT NIGHT AS CSTL/WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA.                 
SHOWERS LINGERING THRU SUNRISE THEN QUICKLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST            
AS SFC COLD FRONT/MID LVL DRY SLOT MOVE TWD COAST. QUITE GUSTY                  
SUNDAY AS INCRSD BNDRY LAYER MIXING PULLS DOWN STRONG WEST WINDS.               
THE WARMING LOW-MID LEVEL DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE             
TO THE U50S/L60S TO PSBLY M60S BEFORE STRONG DEEP CAA SETS IN LATE              
IN THE DAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CONTD MIXING IN THE BNDRY LAYER               
WONT ALLOW FULL DROP OF TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT BUT IT`LL REMAIN BRISK               
WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S BY MON MORN. COLD HIGH PRES BUILDS               
INTO AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY ONLY REACHING TO NEAR            
50 DEGS.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                     
QUIET EXTENDED FORECAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY                
THROUGH THURSDAY. AFTER A COLD MON NIGHT-TUESDAY...TEMPS REBOUNDING             
CLOSE TO CLIMO FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. GFS/ECMWF SHOWING               
SIMILAR SOLUTIONS FOR FRIDAY...BOTH HAVE SFC LOWS DEVELOPING AND                
MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. GFS AND HPC SHOW EASTERN NC IN THE                
WARM SECTOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND COLD FRONT PUSHING OFF THE COAST               
LATE FRIDAY. HAVE PUT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FORECAST FOR FRIDAY.                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                   
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE WITH A LOWERING OF                 
CONDITIONS FROM MVFR THIS AFTERNOON TO IFR/LIFR OVERNIGHT-EARLY                 
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING WITH GUSTS TO AT LEAST 30 KT              
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. EVEN HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN ANY                
CONVECTION THAT OCCURS WHICH IS LOOKING MORE PROBABLE AS                        
WARM/UNSTABLE AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. HEAVY RAINS WILL             
ALSO OCCUR AS TROPICAL MOISTURE FLOWS INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A                  
DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE/STRONG COLD FRONT. THE RAINS WILL               
BECOME WIDESPREAD AFTER 00Z. WE ARE EXPECTING IMPROVEMENT AFTER 18Z             
SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT AND A STRONG                     
INTRUSION OF COLD/DRY AIR INTO THE AREA. STRONG WINDS 30-35 KT WILL             
POSSIBLE THROUGH MID SUNDAY EVENING AS THE ADVECTION OF COLDER AIR              
DESTABILIZES THE LOW LEVELS AND PROMOTES MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS               
ALOFT TO THE SURFACE.                                                           
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN OVER THE REGION MONDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH               
MID WEEK WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.                                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS WITH GALE/STORM FORCE CONDITIONS/STRONG             
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND DANGEROUS SEAS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY                
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH                  
SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE SUBSIDING MONDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE              
AREA. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO CURRENT MARINE FORECASTS AS SMALL CRAFT              
ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON BECOME GALE/STORM THIS EVENING               
AND SUNDAY. UNSTABLE/TROPICAL AIR WILL DRAWN INTO THE AREA TONIGHT              
INTO SUNDAY WHICH WILL PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS IN                 
EXCESS OF 50 KT AND WATERSPOUTS. THE STRONG GRADIENT WINDS WILL                 
BUILD SEAS TO 13-16 FT BY SUNDAY MORNING. WE USED A BLEND OF THE                
WAVE WATCH AND SWAN MODELS WITH A NOD TOWARD THE HIGHER SWAN MODEL              
SEAS SINCE WE ARE FORECASTING HIGHER WIND SPEEDS THAN DEPICTED IN               
THE OPERATIONAL GFS MODEL. FOR NOW WON`T WORRY ABOUT HIGH SURF SINCE            
THE PERIOD OF PEAK ONSHORE SE FLOW WILL BE DURING LOW TIDE AROUND               
530 AM...AND BY THE TIME HIGH TIDE ROLLS AROUND THE WINDS WILL HAVE             
SHIFTED TO THE SW/W. THE TURNING OF THE WINDS WILL ALSO HELP AND                
PREVENT SIG SOUND SIDE FLOODING ALONG THE OBX. CAN`T RULE OUT 2FT               
WATER RISES...BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A CFS.                               
THE WIND POTENTIAL REMAINS HIGH...ESP WITH GUSTS AS AREA BECOMES                
UNSTABLE LATE TNT AND EARLY SUN. WITH STRONG LOW LVL JET FEEL HIGH              
WINDS ALONG OBX LIKELY...AND LOCALIZED WIND ADV CRITERIA ALONG                  
REMAINING EASTERN COASTAL COUNTIES. HAVE KEPT ONSLOW OUT SINCE IT               
LOOKS TO BE MORE STABLE THAN COUNTIES EAST OF THERE AND GUST                    
POTENTIAL LESS. FOR CARTERET THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE DOWN EAST.             
AIRMASS WILL BECOME STABLE SUN AFT...THEN WILL SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS            
DUE TO CAA. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY INTO SUN NT...BUT WILL CONTINUE            
TO WEAKEN INTO MON AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN.                                      
FOR THE REST OF THE FCST HAVEN`T CHANGED MUCH FROM PREV FCST AS                 
FOCUS HAS BEEN ON WEEKEND STORM. OVERALL LOOKING AT HIGH PRES AND               
NO SIG SEAS/WIND EVENTS IN FCST.                                                
&&                                                                              
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY                
     FOR NCZ103-104.                                                            
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR                
     NCZ047-080-081-093>095.                                                    
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR             
     AMZ130-135-150-156-158.                                                    
     STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...BTC                                                                  
NEAR TERM...JW                                                                  
SHORT TERM...BTC                                                                
LONG TERM...BTC/CLQ                                                             
AVIATION...JME                                                                  
MARINE...JME                                                                    
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
1010 AM EST SAT DEC 15 2007                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL PUSH COLDER            
AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY... AS A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE             
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GULF STATES. INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL               
MOVE QUICKLY UP THE COAST AND AWAY ON SUNDAY... WITH GUSTY WEST                 
WINDS IN ITS WAKE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND            
TUESDAY.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...                                                   
AS OF 1000 AM SATURDAY... ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AT 285K-295K IS WELL               
UNDERWAY WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND A GOOD                   
ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT AROUND 925 MB... HOWEVER THIS LIFT IS BEING              
TEMPERED A BIT BY DIFFLUENT FLOW NOTED ON THE 12Z 850 MB ANALYSIS.              
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN RATHER PATCHY THUS FAR AND HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET             
OF STEADIER RAIN FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS FROM THE CURRENT                   
FORECAST. RUC13 DATA SHOWS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASING              
STEADILY THROUGH 18Z AND WE SHOULD SEE COVERAGE FILL IN CONSIDERABLY            
BY MID AFTERNOON. HAVE MADE ALTERATIONS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND              
DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS OF NEAR STEADY READINGS IN THE              
TRIAD AS THE COLD 1039 MB WEDGING HIGH NOSES SOUTH. HAVE ALSO RAISED            
TEMPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST BASED ON WARMER THAN EXPECTED READINGS...              
OTHERWISE EXPECT LARGELY STEADY TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY. OTHER MINOR              
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO INCREASE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH MANY                 
SITES REPORTING GREATER THAN 12 MPH SUSTAINED ALREADY. -GIH                     
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...                                   
AS OF 230 AM SATURDAY...MODELS DEPICT A MILLER-B SCENARIO WITH A                
SECONDARY LOW FORMATION NEAR THE CAROLINAS COAST OVERNIGHT PUSHING              
A COASTAL WARM FRONT INLAND TO NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER OF THE RAH               
CWA IN THE LOWER COASTAL PLAIN. MODELS SOUNDINGS SHOW                           
DESTABILIZATION AND POSITIVE ENERGY ALOFT FOR A THREAT OF ISOLATED              
TSTMS IN EASTERN BORDER COUNTIES IN ADDITION TO WIDESPREAD RAIN                 
THROUGHOUT THE AREA OVERNIGHT. GREATEST LARGE SCALE LIFT APPEARS                
EARLY TONIGHT AS A 40 KNOT EASTERLY FLOW VEERS INTO A 50 KNOT                   
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH SATURATED AIR IN THE LOWEST 6000 FEET. MODELS               
DIFFER ON PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND IT MAY ULTIMATELY                  
DEPEND ON HOW CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ALIGN WITH THE SECONDARY LOW AND              
WARM FRONT. CURRENT THINKING IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS IN SHOWING                  
BASIN AVERAGE STORM TOTAL QPF INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST AND                  
RANGING FROM NEAR 0.75 TO NEAR 1.20. TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A NON               
DIURNAL PATTERN OF NEARLY STEADY TO SLOWLY RISING VALUES                        
OVERNIGHT.                                                                      
SUNDAY...THE MAIN SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONTAL JUMP TO THE                   
COAST OCCURS MID MORNING WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS RAPIDLY                        
DECREASING SW TO NE MID TO LATE MORNING. BY AFTERNOON...IN THE                  
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS              
TO NEARLY 20 MB ACROSS THE STATE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR.                
THE -8C ISOTHERM AT 850 MB ADVECTS INTO THE AREA BY EVENING. THIS               
SUGGESTS STRONG GUSTY WINDS FROM THE WNW IN THE AFTERNOON WITH                  
POTENTIAL GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH AND SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30 MPH. WIND              
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY. SUNSHINE WILL STRUGGLE AGAINST COLD AIR                  
ADVECTION TO RAISE TEMPERATURES AN A NET RESULT MAY BE NEAR STEADY              
READINGS BETWEEN 45 AND 55 NW TO SE DURING THE MIDDAY AND                       
AFTERNOON HOURS.                                                                
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...A THERMAL TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA                   
DURING THE PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN              
PLAINS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. LOWS SHOULD DIP INTO THE 20S                  
BOTH NIGHTS BENEATH CLEAR SKIES...POSSIBLY LOWER 20S MON NIGHT.                 
HIGHS MONDAY MAY BE LIMITED TO MID 40S OR LOWER GIVEN MODEL                     
1000-850 THICKNESS IN THE 1275-1285 METER RANGE. -RFG                           
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                          
AS OF 325 AM SATURDAY...BROAD ZONAL FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY              
SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES              
BY WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE              
50-54 DEGREE RANGE WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT BACK DOWN INTO THE                   
UPPER 20S. WEDNESDAY WILL ADD ON ABOUT 5 DEGREES TO THE TUESDAY                 
READINGS AS LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.                                      
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON OUR NEXT              
CHANCE OF RAIN COMING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE                   
ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE WEST COAST QUICKLY ADVANCES EAST IN THE                
FAST ZONAL FLOW. SOME DIFFERENCES HAVE BEGUN TO SHOW UP BETWEEN                 
THE ECMWF AND THE GFS IN REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM.                
THE ECMWF MAINTAINS IT SOLUTION OF A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND                  
RESULTANT MILLER B CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE NC COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING.             
THE GFS IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED AND FURTHER NORTH WITH                           
CYCLOGENESIS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE MODEL DIFFERENCES UNTIL THE                  
ENERGY IN QUESTION MOVES ASHORE AND CAN BE BETTER ASSESSED BY THE               
RAOB NETWORK. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR NOW ON THURSDAY                        
NIGHT...LINGERING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE                   
NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK DUE TO THE AIRMASS                
BEHIND THE END OF THE WEEK SYSTEM BEING PRIMARILY OF PACIFIC                    
ORIGIN.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                   
AS OF 640 AM...WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL              
NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED                      
ISENTROPIC LIFT. LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY AS A STORM                
SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MOVES                    
TOWARD THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN IFR CEILINGS AT ALL SITES                
BY MIDDAY ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN WHICH COULD                  
PRODUCE MVFR VSBYS.                                                             
A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS                  
EVENING. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND IFR TO OCCASIONALLY LIFR CONDITIONS                
WILL AFFECT THE CENTRAL NC TERMINALS AS A RESULT. HAVE INCLUDED A               
MENTION OF CB IN THE SKY CONDITION AT RWI GIVEN THE COASTAL FRONT               
WILL LIKELY MOVE PAST RWI...PLACING THEM IN THE WARM SECTOR WHICH               
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED THUNDER. WINDS WILL ALSO LIKELY                  
VEER TO THE ESE/SE AT RWI LATER TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE                 
COASTAL FRONT. THE WIND FORECAST AT FAY/RDU IS A LITTLE MORE                    
TRICKY GIVEN THAT A SMALL DEVIATION IN THE MOVEMENT OF THE COASTAL              
FRONT WILL RESULT IN MUCH DIFFERENT WIND DIRECTIONS. THE COOL AIR               
WEDGE SHOULD HOLD FIRM AT INT/GSO TO MAINTAIN A NE WIND. LLWS WILL              
ALSO BE A CONCERN TONIGHT AS WINDS NEAR 2000 FT INCREASE TO 40-45               
KT.                                                                             
CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY BECOME VFR BY MIDDAY SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE              
LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS OVER NEW ENGLAND...PRODUCING A                  
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS. THERE WILL BE THE                      
POTENTIAL FOR WINDY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE DEEPENING LOW               
AND VERY STRONG WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO              
25 KNOTS WITH WIND GUSTS OF 30 40 KNOTS ARE LIKELY BEFORE SUNDAY                
AFTERNOON. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE VEERING TO WESTERLY WHICH                 
WILL PRODUCE SOME CROSSWIND IMPACTS AT THE LOCAL TERMINALS.                     
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD NORTH CAROLINA               
FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS INTO                
WEDNESDAY.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...RFG                                                                  
NEAR TERM...RFG/HARTFIELD                                                       
SHORT TERM...RFG                                                                
LONG TERM...JFB                                                                 
AVIATION...JFB                                                                  
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
642 PM EST SAT DEC 15 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH A COLD FRONT IN TENNESSEE WILL             
SWING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT.  A RIDGE OF COLD AND DRY HIGH               
PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES MONDAY AND                  
PERSIST UNTIL ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE IN THE                
WEEK.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...                                       
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...A MILLER-B LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH ONGOING             
CAD WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.             
A STRONG WARM NOSE ABOVE THE DOME OF COLD AIR HAS TEMPERATURES FROM             
5-10C (WHICH SHOULD KEEP ALL PRECIP AS RAIN THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.               
STRONG WAA FORCING WITH DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS RESULTING IN               
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER TO DEVELOP TO THE                 
SOUTH OF OUR CWFA. ALL SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE STRONGEST             
OMEGA WILL LIKELY OCCUR FROM 00Z-06Z SUNDAY. I HAVE NEAR 100 PCT POP            
FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA DURING THAT PERIOD. I ADJUSTED HPC QPF ACCUMS               
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY GIVING QPF WITH RANGE FROM 0.5-1.0". WITH SOME               
THUNDER IN NORTHERN GA AND MSAS/RUC LI`S/SHOWALTERS INDICATING SOME             
ELEVATED INSTABILITY...I DECIDED TO ADD CHC THUNDER FOR THE SW                  
MTNS/GA MTNS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND A COUPLE              
RUMBLES OF THUNDER IS ALL THAT IS EXPECTED IN ANY EMBEDDED STORMS.              
OVERNIGHT...A DRY SLOT IS STILL EXPECTED TO JUT NORTH ACROSS OUR                
AREA...QUICKLY TAPERING OFF PRECIP. THE WEDGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO                
ERODE UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA FROM WEST TO                 
EAST. THE NAM IS LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE GFS. BUT THE AVERAGE TIMING             
IS GENERALLY FROM 9Z ON THE WESTERN EDGE TO 12Z ALONG THE I-77                  
CORRIDOR. MODEL THICKNESSES AND SOUNDINGS SEEM TO SUPPORT SNOW                  
LEVELS DROPPING AROUND 12Z...WHILE POPS DROP BELOW SLIGHT CHC EAST              
OF THE MTNS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT UNTIL THE             
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHERE SHARP DROPS WILL OCCUR IN THE HIGHER                    
ELEVATIONS.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...                       
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...ANY DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE SHORT RANGE                
MODELS ARE PROBABLY NOT GOING TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE FORECAST.             
BIG CHANGES WILL BE HAPPENING RIGHT AROUND 12Z SUNDAY AS THE UPPER              
LOW MOVES PAST THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND THE DRY SLOT BLASTS IN FROM            
THE SW...WHILE COLD AIR ALOFT COMES IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT A QUICK            
END TO THE PRECIP JUST BEFORE SUNRISE EAST OF THE MTNS AND THE GRIDS            
WILL REFLECT THIS. MEANWHILE...THE MTNS SHOULD RETAIN A LOW CHANCE              
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON...WHEN IMPROVING NW FLOW UPSLOPE FORCES MORE                
PRECIP MAINLY ON THE TN BORDER. A LIKELY POP WILL BE RETAINED THERE.            
THE MOISTURE HOLDS ON INTO THE EVENING...SO THE CHANCE POP FOR THE              
FIRST PART OF THE SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED. SNOW               
LEVELS DROP QUICKLY WHICH SHOULD CHANGE ALL PRECIP OVER TO A MIX                
AROUND SUNRISE AND ALL SNOW BY NOON. THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES AWAY                
QUICKLY WHICH PULLS THE MOISTURE OUT FAST IN THE EVENING...THUS                 
LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF TIME FOR ACCUMULATION. FAIRLY CONFIDENT ABOUT            
A SNOW ADVISORY WORKING OUT FOR THE NRN MTNS SO HAVE DECIDED TO                 
ISSUE IT NOW EVEN IF PRECIP CHANCE IN THE FORECAST IS NOT YET                   
CATEGORICAL THERE. THE WIND WILL BE A POTENTIALLY BIGGER PROBLEM                
WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ALOFT AS THE LOW WRAPS UP                     
OFFSHORE. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER                    
RELATIVELY DEEP DURING THE DAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW VERY STRONG WIND              
GUSTS PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH TO MIX DOWN ANYWHERE FROM LATE                  
MORNING THROUGH MID EVENING. RIDGETOPS COULD HAVE GUSTS ABOVE 60                
MPH. FOR NOW...WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST            
AREA AND ADVISE NEXT SHIFTS ABOUT POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO A WARNING OVER            
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...RATHER THAN COMPLICATE MATTERS WITH A WATCH                
JUST OVER THE MTNS.                                                             
ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE            
WEST WHICH SUPPORTS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. KEPT THE FORECAST CLOSE              
TO A GUIDANCE BLEND...WHICH KEEPS IT DRY AND COOL.                              
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                        
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST REMAINS IN FLUX AS                
MODELS SHIFT BETWEEN SLOWER...MORE AMPLIFIED STORM SYSTEMS AND                  
FASTER...LESS AMPLIFIED SYSTEMS. THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON DRY              
WX TUE AND WED...THEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA             
LATE THURSDAY AND THU NITE...A DRY PERIOD FOR FRIDAY...THEN ANOTHER             
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD THE AREA LATE SATURDAY. THE                   
DISAGREEMENT CONTINUES ON TRACK AND ACTUAL TIMING OF THE LOW                    
PRESSURE SYSTEMS. 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE SHOWS BEST PRECIP CHC LATE THU               
AND THU NIGHT...THEN AGAIN SAT NITE. HAVE TRIED TO FOLLOW THIS                  
TIMING WITH POP FORECAST. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLE SHOW              
THICKNESSES...SOUNDINGS AND H85 TEMPS CONSISTENT WITH A RAIN ONLY               
FORECAST THRU THE PERIOD. THEREFORE...HAVE GONE ABOVE THE WAY TOO               
COOL GRIDDED GFS MOS VALUES FOR THE MTNS. OTHERWISE...FOLLOWED THE              
GUIDANCE CLOSELY. THIS RESULTS IN TEMPS BELOW NORMAL TUE AND TUE                
NIGHT...THEN RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                      
A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS OVER THE            
NEXT 2 HOURS OR SO...WITH VISBY RESTRICTIONS AS LOW AS A MILE                   
BECOMING COMMON IN HEAVIER RAINFALL. ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT BE                 
RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR...SO A CB               
GROUP WILL BE CARRIED THERE THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. THE RAIN SHOULD             
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FAIRLY QUICKLY...LIKELY EXITING THE AREA BY              
SUNRISE...IF NOT SOONER. HOWEVER...ONCE PRECIP ENDS...CIGS/VISBY MAY            
ACTUALLY DETERIORATE FURTHER...AS COLD AIR DAMMING AIRMASS BEGINS TO            
ERODE. WE DO NOT EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO SCOUR UNTIL THE               
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA JUST AFTER SUNRISE. AT THAT                   
POINT...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME A MAJOR ISSUE...AS            
LOW PRESSURE BOMBS NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECT GUSTS OF 30              
KTS OR GREATER AT MOST TERMINALS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.                            
AVIATION OUTLOOK...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND              
POSSIBLY MONDAY. A DRY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN QUIET WX              
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE FORECAST ON            
THURSDAY.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT                
     FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.                                            
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT                
     FOR NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-                    
     501>510.                                                                   
     SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT                
     FOR NCZ033-048>050.                                                        
SC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT                
     FOR SCZ001>014-019.                                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...PAT                                                                  
NEAR TERM...ARK                                                                 
SHORT TERM...PM                                                                 
LONG TERM...RWH                                                                 
AVIATION...JDL                                                                  
</pre> sc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
1145 AM CDT SUN DEC 16 2007                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
APOLOGIES FOR THE DELAYED AFD...FORECAST NEGLECTED TO HIT THE SEND              
BUTTON EARLIER...SO HERE IS A DELAYED UPDATE TO THE AFD. FOG THIS               
MORNING CONTINUES TO ERODE ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF FOG BANK ACROSS THE            
I29 CORRIDOR. STILL SOME 1/4 SM VISIBILITIES IN SW MN AND NW IA BUT             
EXPECT IMPROVEMENT THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WESTERLY WINDS FROM                      
APPROACHING TROUGH SHOULD SCOUR OUT THE REST OF THE FOG THIS                    
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER SOME PLACED SUCH AS WMW...MJG...AND SPW COULD               
SEE SOME FOG UNTIL NEAR SUNSET. WILL LEAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES AS                 
IS...MAY PLACES NO WARMING AT 5 TO 7 DEGREES PER HOUR WHERE SUN IS              
SHINING AND EVEN WHERE CLOUDS AND FOG ARE HOLDING...WARM ADVECTION              
ALOFT WILL GIVE TEMPERATURES A BOOST THIS AFTERNOON. QUESTION FOG               
TONIGHT WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT MORE FOG WILL FORM.                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR THROUGH THE THIS EVENING AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES...WITH ONLY SOME            
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. MAY              
SEE SOME FOG REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...CLOUD COVER IS THE REAL CHALLENGE TODAY...               
AT LEAST OVR THE NRN AND ERN PARTS OF OUR FA. AS MENTIONED BLO IN               
THE AVN SECTION...A LOT OF STRATUS IS WORKING ITS WAY SWD THRU THE              
ERN DKTS AND CENTRAL MN. IN ADDITION...WE HAVE MID CLOUDS ALREADY               
OVR SW MN...EXTENDING DOWN TO ABOUT SPENCER IA. AND ANOTHER THIN                
BAND OF MID LVL CLOUDS IS NOTED IN THE WRN DKTS MOVG EWD. DOUBT THE             
WRN DKTS MID LVL CLOUD BAND WL HOLD TOGETHER VERY WELL AS IT MOVES              
EWD. BUT THE STRATUS CERTAINLY WILL. ATTM...FOLLOWED THE RUC/NAM AND            
GFS H925 RH GUIDANCE IN KEEPING THE STRATUS JUST E OF KHON...                   
EXTENDING IT DOWN THRU E CENTRAL SD AND SW MN. IT SHOULD EVENTUALLY             
GET INTO SPENCER IA TOO. WL WATCH THE MOVEMENT OF THE STRATUS                   
CLOSELY EARLY THIS MORNING AND SEE IF IT OOZES INTO KFSD AND KHON.              
HOWEVER KFSD MAY START OUT FAIRLY CLOUDY ANYWAY DUE TO THE MID LVL              
CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING IN THIS VICINITY. THE STRATUS MAY HAVE A                 
TOUGH TIME LEAVING OUR N AND E...WITH WEAK WAA ABOVE THE SFC CAUSING            
INCREASINGLY STABLE CONDITIONS...AND A VERY WEAK WLY LOW LEVEL FLOW             
NOT REALLY ABLE TO SCOUR IT OUT. THEREFORE WAS PRETTY PESSIMISTIC               
OVR OUR NE QUARTER ON SKY CONDITIONS THRU THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY...              
WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THIS AFTN. KEPT TEMPS MANY                
LOCATIONS EITHER BLO OR WELL BLO MOST GUIDANCE READINGS WITH THE                
STABLE AIR. TEMPS UNDERNEATH THE STRATUS ARE TRICKY...BECAUSE                   
SOMETIMES THE AIR WILL ACTUALLY WARM UP BETTER WITH A LID OF CLOUD              
COVER OVER THE SNOW COVER THAN WITH SUNSHINE. SO THEREFORE WITH THE             
LIGHT WLY FLOW...DID WARM UP OUR NE SECTIN A FAIR AMOUNT. IN OUR SW             
THOUGH...ALONG AND W OF A KYKN TO KMHE LINE...LITTLE TO NO SNOW                 
COVER EXISTS SO WENT ISOTHERMAL FM H925 IN THOSE AREAS.                         
FOR TONIGHT...KEPT LOWS BLO MOST GUIDANCE READINGS...TRENDING TOWARD            
THE EVER COOL MAV READINGS OR LOWER. WITH A LIGHT SW OR WLY FETCH OF            
SFC AIR...SIMILAR TO NOW...WENT AHEAD AND TANKED THE FAVORED                    
LOCATIONS SUCH AS KSUX AND KSPW. HOWEVER MAY NOT HAVE GONE COLD                 
ENOUGH IN SOME OF THESE SPOTS. BUT THE H925 THERMAL IS QUITE WARM               
TONIGHT...WARMER THAN IT IS NOW...SO DID GO AS COLD TONIGHT AS IT IS            
RIGHT NOW.                                                                      
AFTER TODAY...WE ARE BASICALLY LOOKING AT A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THROUGH            
EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH MODERATING TEMPS JUST ABOVE THE SFC. THERMAL             
INVERSION STAYS LOCKED IN THIS AREA THROUGH WED. STRONG WAA SCOOTS              
OVR THIS AREA ON MONDAY PROVIDING ANOTHER VERY STABLE ATMOSPHERE                
WITH A SLY SFC FLOW. I MAY BE TOO OPTIMISTIC GOING ISOTHERMAL FM                
H925 OVR THE ENTIRE NRN AND ERN PARTS OF OUR FA. A DRY S/W PASSAGE              
IS NOTED LATE MON AND MON EVENING OVER THIS AREA. HOWEVER ONE THING             
TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE MORNING...THE GFS40 H925            
RH FIELD SHOWS A LOT OF STRATUS OVR THE NERN PTN OF OUR FA BEHIND               
THE S/W PASSAGE. THE GFS WAS FAIRLY ACCURATE IN SHOWING THE CURRENT             
STRATUS ON YESTERDAYS RUN. SO IT IS DIFFICULT TO IGNORE THIS.                   
ATTM...HEDGED AND PUT IN SOME CLOUD COVER FOR THIS TIMEFRAME IN OUR             
NE. FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LIGHT SFC FLOW...AGAIN TRIED TO            
FAVOR WARMER READINGS OVR THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUCH AS SW MN AND OUR              
SWRN FA...WITH COLDER READINGS IN THE VALLEYS. TUE MAY BE SLIGHTLY              
WARMER THAN MONDAY WITH A LIGHT WLY SFC WIND.                                   
NEXT SLIGHTLY STRONGER WAVE TO WATCH IS LATE WED AND WED EVENING.               
THIS WAVE HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED BY THE VARIOUS MODELS.                       
FRONTOGENESIS AND OVERALL ASCENT IS WEAK WITH THIS WAVE. BUT THE GFS            
DOES SATURATE UP THE PROFILE OVR OUR ERN HALF WED AFTN...EXTENDING              
INTO WED EVE ACROSS OUR E. BOOSTED SOME DRY POPS ATTM BUT DID NOT               
INLCUDE -SN AS THE ECMWF AND GEM WERE NOT BACKING UP THE GFS WITH               
QPF IN OUR EAST. AND AS MENTIONED...EVEN THE GFS DYNAMICS ARE QUITE             
WEAK.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MJF/BT                                                                          
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
320 AM CDT SUN DEC 16 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...CLOUD COVER IS THE REAL CHALLENGE TODAY...               
AT LEAST OVR THE NRN AND ERN PARTS OF OUR FA. AS MENTIONED BLO IN               
THE AVN SECTION...A LOT OF STRATUS IS WORKING ITS WAY SWD THRU THE              
ERN DKTS AND CENTRAL MN. IN ADDITION...WE HAVE MID CLOUDS ALREADY               
OVR SW MN...EXTENDING DOWN TO ABOUT SPENCER IA. AND ANOTHER THIN                
BAND OF MID LVL CLOUDS IS NOTED IN THE WRN DKTS MOVG EWD. DOUBT THE             
WRN DKTS MID LVL CLOUD BAND WL HOLD TOGETHER VERY WELL AS IT MOVES              
EWD. BUT THE STRATUS CERTAINLY WILL. ATTM...FOLLOWED THE RUC/NAM AND            
GFS H925 RH GUIDANCE IN KEEPING THE STRATUS JUST E OF KHON...                   
EXTENDING IT DOWN THRU E CENTRAL SD AND SW MN. IT SHOULD EVENTUALLY             
GET INTO SPENCER IA TOO. WL WATCH THE MOVEMENT OF THE STRATUS                   
CLOSELY EARLY THIS MORNING AND SEE IF IT OOZES INTO KFSD AND KHON.              
HOWEVER KFSD MAY START OUT FAIRLY CLOUDY ANYWAY DUE TO THE MID LVL              
CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING IN THIS VICINITY. THE STRATUS MAY HAVE A                 
TOUGH TIME LEAVING OUR N AND E...WITH WEAK WAA ABOVE THE SFC CAUSING            
INCREASINGLY STABLE CONDITIONS...AND A VERY WEAK WLY LOW LEVEL FLOW             
NOT REALLY ABLE TO SCOUR IT OUT. THEREFORE WAS PRETTY PESSIMISTIC               
OVR OUR NE QUARTER ON SKY CONDITIONS THRU THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY...              
WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THIS AFTN. KEPT TEMPS MANY                
LOCATIONS EITHER BLO OR WELL BLO MOST GUIDANCE READINGS WITH THE                
STABLE AIR. TEMPS UNDERNEATH THE STRATUS ARE TRICKY...BECAUSE                   
SOMETIMES THE AIR WILL ACTUALLY WARM UP BETTER WITH A LID OF CLOUD              
COVER OVER THE SNOW COVER THAN WITH SUNSHINE. SO THEREFORE WITH THE             
LIGHT WLY FLOW...DID WARM UP OUR NE SECTIN A FAIR AMOUNT. IN OUR SW             
THOUGH...ALONG AND W OF A KYKN TO KMHE LINE...LITTLE TO NO SNOW                 
COVER EXISTS SO WENT ISOTHERMAL FM H925 IN THOSE AREAS.                         
FOR TONIGHT...KEPT LOWS BLO MOST GUIDANCE READINGS...TRENDING TOWARD            
THE EVER COOL MAV READINGS OR LOWER. WITH A LIGHT SW OR WLY FETCH OF            
SFC AIR...SIMILAR TO NOW...WENT AHEAD AND TANKED THE FAVORED                    
LOCATIONS SUCH AS KSUX AND KSPW. HOWEVER MAY NOT HAVE GONE COLD                 
ENOUGH IN SOME OF THESE SPOTS. BUT THE H925 THERMAL IS QUITE WARM               
TONIGHT...WARMER THAN IT IS NOW...SO DID GO AS COLD TONIGHT AS IT IS            
RIGHT NOW.                                                                      
AFTER TODAY...WE ARE BASICALLY LOOKING AT A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THROUGH            
EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH MODERATING TEMPS JUST ABOVE THE SFC. THERMAL             
INVERSION STAYS LOCKED IN THIS AREA THROUGH WED. STRONG WAA SCOOTS              
OVR THIS AREA ON MONDAY PROVIDING ANOTHER VERY STABLE ATMOSPHERE                
WITH A SLY SFC FLOW. I MAY BE TOO OPTIMISTIC GOING ISOTHERMAL FM                
H925 OVR THE ENTIRE NRN AND ERN PARTS OF OUR FA. A DRY S/W PASSAGE              
IS NOTED LATE MON AND MON EVENING OVER THIS AREA. HOWEVER ONE THING             
TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE MORNING...THE GFS40 H925            
RH FIELD SHOWS A LOT OF STRATUS OVR THE NERN PTN OF OUR FA BEHIND               
THE S/W PASSAGE. THE GFS WAS FAIRLY ACCURATE IN SHOWING THE CURRENT             
STRATUS ON YESTERDAYS RUN. SO IT IS DIFFICULT TO IGNORE THIS.                   
ATTM...HEDGED AND PUT IN SOME CLOUD COVER FOR THIS TIMEFRAME IN OUR             
NE. FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LIGHT SFC FLOW...AGAIN TRIED TO            
FAVOR WARMER READINGS OVR THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUCH AS SW MN AND OUR              
SWRN FA...WITH COLDER READINGS IN THE VALLEYS. TUE MAY BE SLIGHTLY              
WARMER THAN MONDAY WITH A LIGHT WLY SFC WIND.                                   
NEXT SLIGHTLY STRONGER WAVE TO WATCH IS LATE WED AND WED EVENING.               
THIS WAVE HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED BY THE VARIOUS MODELS.                       
FRONTOGENESIS AND OVERALL ASCENT IS WEAK WITH THIS WAVE. BUT THE GFS            
DOES SATURATE UP THE PROFILE OVR OUR ERN HALF WED AFTN...EXTENDING              
INTO WED EVE ACROSS OUR E. BOOSTED SOME DRY POPS ATTM BUT DID NOT               
INLCUDE -SN AS THE ECMWF AND GEM WERE NOT BACKING UP THE GFS WITH               
QPF IN OUR EAST. AND AS MENTIONED...EVEN THE GFS DYNAMICS ARE QUITE             
WEAK.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
TRICKY AVIATION FORECAST THIS MORNING WITH LOW CLOUDS AND LOW                   
VISIBILITIES FILTERING DOWN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. OVER THE PAST               
FEW HOURS...ABERDEEN FELL INTO THE TANK GOING FROM UNRESTRICTED                 
VISIBILITY DOWN TO A QUARTER OF A MILE.  WHETHER THE FOG MAKES IT               
DOWN TO KHON REMAINS TO BE SEEN...BUT IF IT DOES...IT WILL LIKELY BE            
STUBBORN AND STICK AROUND FOR A WHILE WITH STRONG INVERSION IN                  
PLACE. EXPECT PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE                
AREA THROUGH 15-16Z THEN VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.                             
&&                                                                              
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MJF/BT                                                                          
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
1149 AM CST SAT DEC 15 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
AN AREA OF DENSE FOG HAS FORMED OVER THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER                   
VALLEY THIS MORNING WITH PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.                 
KABR HAS BEEN REPORTING 1/4 TO 1/2 MILE IN FZFG MOST OF THE                     
MORNING. ISSUED A NOWCAST AND UPDATED FORECAST TO ADD IN MENTION OF             
AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN PRIMARILY BROWN COUNTY...AS CALLS TO                      
SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE JAMES VALLEY DO NOT REVEAL ANY FOG.                       
WATERTOWN HAS ALSO DROPPED TO 5SM IN BR...SO MAY HAVE TO MONITOR                
REGIONS TO THE EAST FOR SOME FOG FORMATION IN THESE AREAS AS WELL.              
THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW LONG THE FOG WILL HANG AROUND...FORECAST               
RUC/NAM SOUNDINGS...PARTICULARLY THE RUC...REFLECT A GOOD DEAL OF               
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE DAY                
AT KABR AND SOMEWHAT AT KATY AS WELL...AND BOTH INDICATE                        
ADDITIONAL FOG FORMATION LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS              
A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING...WITH                      
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF IT...AND WESTERLY WINDS                
BEHIND IT...AND A DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT...AND             
THE NAM/RUC FORECAST THIS BOUNDARY TO REACH THE JAMES VALLEY IN                 
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. HOWEVER...BOTH ALSO INDICATE THAT THE SHIFT               
TO WESTERLY WINDS MAY REMAIN ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THUS ABOVE THE               
FOG LAYER...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE FOG TO REMAIN IN PLACE INSTEAD OF              
DISSIPATE AND LIFT. FOR NOW...ONLY CONTINUED THE FOG FOR A COUPLE               
HOURS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BE MONITORING AND MAY                 
HAVE TO UPDATE AGAIN IF INDICATIONS POINT TO A LONGER DURATION OF               
FOG AND WESTERLY WINDS REMAIN ABOVE THE SURFACE. MOST OTHER                     
ELEMENTS REMAIN AS INHERITED. A NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION IS FOUND BELOW.         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY                                              
FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE WARMING TEMPERATURES OVER A SNOW                    
FIELD...AND ANY FOG POTENTIAL FROM SNOW MELT ACCOMPANYING A WARMER              
AIRMASS.                                                                        
WELL...THE ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT GOT HUNG UP NORTH TO               
SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THE OTHER DAY IS FINALLY STARTING              
TO MAKE SOME PROGRESS EASTWARD...AS A WARM FRONT ACCOMPANYING A                 
WEAK MID-LEVEL S/W TROF WORKING INTO THE REGION EARLY THIS                      
MORNING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS A LARGE AREA OF MAINLY MVFR                
CLOUDS STILL HANGING OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF ZONES                 
THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUD MOTION FROM FOG PRODUCT SATELLITE                 
IMAGERY SUGGESTS THERE IS SOME NORTH AND EAST MOTION TO THESE                   
CLOUDS WITH A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING WIND OUT AHEAD OF                
THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY/SFC-TROF. THERE ARE ALSO ADDITIONAL                 
CLOUDS WORKING INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA FROM THE NORTHWEST               
BEHIND THE TROF AXIS.                                                           
ASSUMING THE LOW LEVEL STEERING WINDS DUE IN FACT SWING AROUND TO               
THE WEST-NORTHWEST /SOMETIMES MODELS OVERPLAY THIS AND CLOUDS END               
UP HANGING ON LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED/ BY THIS AFTERNOON...LOW                  
CLOUDS SHOULD BE A THING OF THE PAST BY MID EVENING...RENDERING                 
THE TONIGHT PERIOD MOSTLY CLEAR. UNTIL THEN...THERE MAY BE A FEW                
FLAKES FALLING OUT OF THE LOW CLOUDS TODAY. NOT SOMETHING THAT                  
SEEMED VALIDATED BY FLURRIES MENTION FOR NOW IN THE GRIDS.                      
OTHERWISE...A COUPLE MORE WEAK/DRY MID-LEVEL WAVES MOVING THROUGH               
THE REGION SUNDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY WILL SWEEP SURFACE TROF                      
REFLECTIONS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH A LITTLE                
BIT WARMER AIR BEING INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH EACH                
PASSING WAVE. AT SOME POINT DOWN THE ROAD WILL BE DEALING WITH                  
SOME CONSIDERABLE FOG PROBLEMS IF PROGRESSIVELY WARMER AIR DOES                 
SUCCEED IN WORKING OVER THE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW FIELD IN PLACE               
ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. BUT...FOR NOW...STILL JUST MONITORING               
FOR POTENTIAL.                                                                  
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY                                        
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL THE MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLES THAT FAST                  
PACIFIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE                  
LONG TERM WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES AFFECTING THE REGION. THE FIRST              
SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE ACROSS                
SOUTHERN CANADA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A PACIFIC FRONT                
MOVING ACROSS OUR CWA. MONDAY NIGHT COULD END UP BEING A WARM                   
NIGHT AS WINDS BECOME WEST AND INCREASE. LOWS SHOULD BE EARLY                   
BEFORE RISING OR LEVELING OFF. TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE A MILD DAY                
WITH GOOD MIXING OF PACIFIC AIR WITH WEST WINDS. FOR THE SNOW                   
COVERED AREAS...IT WILL BE TOUGH FOR THE TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO                
32 OR ABOVE AND THIS IS THE TYPICAL WINTER TIME SETUP WHERE A WARM              
UP TAKES PLACE OVER SNOW COVER. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE               
RIDGING WILL SLIDE OVER THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS GOING                  
LIGHT AND TURNING SOUTH BY MORNING. THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH AND                 
SURFACE TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE               
FIRST ONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.              
THIS ONE WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER AS THE MODELS SHOW IT                        
INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO SOME                  
INDICATION THAT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR FAR EAST IN THE              
CWA. WILL LEAVE IT DRY FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...WEDNESDAY WILL BE                   
COOLER WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS COMING ACROSS SNOW COVER TO                
THE SOUTH ALONG WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE PACIFIC TROUGH.               
THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES THEN SHOW A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH              
TAKING SHAPE IN THE SOUTHWEST US THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG                  
WITH A DECENT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPING AND HEADING OUT              
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST EC AND GFS                 
AGREE REALLY WELL ON THIS ALONG WITH SPREADING SOME PRECIPITATION               
NORTH INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. LEFT IT DRY FOR NOW                
AND WILL SEE WHAT LATER RUNS BRING.                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE                          
AREA...NOTABLY THE KABR/KATY TAF SITES...WITH DENSE FZFG FORMING                
AT KABR AND CONTINUING LATE THIS MORNING. KATY IS ALSO BEGINNING                
TO REPORT LIGHT FOG FORMATION. WILL BE MONITORING THE FOG DURATION              
POTENTIAL...BUT INDICATIONS RIGHT NOW ARE THAT A WEAK BOUNDARY                  
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL SHIFT WINDS MORE WESTERLY JUST ABOVE               
THE SURFACE IN THE JAMES VALLEY BY 18 TO 19Z...AND AT KATY BY 21                
TO 22Z...WHICH WOULD HELP MIX OUT THE FOG IF SURFACE WINDS ARE                  
ABLE TO SHIFT TO THE WEST. HOWEVER...THE WIND SHIFT MAY NOT MAKE                
IT ALL THE WAY TO THE IMMEDIATE SURFACE...AND THUS THE FOG MAY                  
HANG AROUND LONGER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. FOR NOW...DID LIFT               
FOG IN THE TAFS BY THIS AFTERNOON AT KABR...BY 20Z.                             
OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 6000 FEET ALSO CONTINUE                
ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING...HAVING ALREADY CLEARED MOBRIDGE              
AND PIERRE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGS AROUND AND ANTICIPATE                      
ADDITIONAL FOG FORMATION AT KABR/KATY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS              
WINDS BECOME FAIRLY LIGHT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER A FIELD OF                
SNOW REMAINS PLENTIFUL.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...ECKSTEIN                                                               
SHORT TERM...DORN                                                               
LONG TERM...MOHR                                                                
AVIATION...ECKSTEIN                                                             
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN                                                            
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN                                           
858 PM CST SAT DEC 15 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPR TROUGH REMAINS UPSTREAM AS ECHOES MOVE NORTHEAST. COLD FRONT                
HAS SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE THIS EVENING WEST OF THE MID STATE. STEERING           
WINDS WILL TURN WEST AFT MIDNIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT MARCHES IN.               
MIX/CHANGE TO FROZEN PCPN AFT MIDNIGHT...LATE IN EAST MID TN.                   
POST FRONTAL SNOWS IN SOUTHEAST MO ASSOC WITH UPR DEFORMATION AND               
NEGATIVE TILT. ALTHOUGH UPR TROUGH MOVES OVR MID TN TONIGHT...DEEPER            
MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH 06-12Z. SO WILL DOWNPLAY SNOW AMOUNTS N MID              
TN (LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUM). BUT WL KEEP SNOW ADVISORY RUNNING                 
THROUGH 18Z IN THE PLATEAU SUN...WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW.                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 118 PM CST SAT DEC 15 2007/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
UPPER TROUGH BEGINNING TO PULL EAST PER LATEST SATELLITE LOOP.                  
RAIN AREA HAS BEEN SLOW COMING EAST WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER THE                    
WESTERN PARTS OF MID STATE THIS MORNING. CLARKSVILLE MEASURED 1.17              
INCHES SINCE 6 AM. DOPPLER SHOWS 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF                  
STEWART...MONTGOMERY...HOUSTON...BENTON AND HUMPHREYS. STILL MORE               
RAIN TO COME THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE RAIN AREA HAS BEEN                 
SLOW TO TRANSLATE EAST DURING THE DAY WITH DRIER AIR SHOWING UP                 
ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AT MID-DAY.                     
SURFACE FEATURES STILL TRYING TO GET ORGANIZED AS STORM IS VERY COMPLEX.        
AFTER LOOKING AT THE LATEST ISALLOBARIC PATTERN BELIEVE LATEST                  
RUC MAY HAVE THE BETTER HANDLE ON SURFACE LOW TRACK. LATEST RUC                 
HAS LOW NEAR LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES ABOUT 00Z. 12Z GFS IS A LITTLE              
MORE EAST OF THIS TRACK.                                                        
SHOULD BE SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW                 
TAKES PLACE FIRST IN THE NORTHWEST AND PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT. THERE               
WILL BE A MIX AT FIRST THEN A CHANGE TO ALL SNOW. WILL PLAY IT                  
THIS WAY: SNOW ADVISORY FOR PLATEAU COUNTIES WITH GENERALLY 1 TO 2              
INCHES POSSIBLE...CANT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED 3 INCH AMOUNTS. UP TO             
AN INCH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF MID STATE AND A DUSTING               
OVER THE SOUTH. THESE ACCUMULATIONS ARE BASED ON A 1 TO 10                      
RATIO WHICH MAY NOT BE ALL THAT REPRESENTATIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM                 
BUT BEST I CAN DO.                                                              
LIGHT SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO FLURRIES IN THE MORNING IN ALL AREAS                 
EXCEPT PLATEAU WHERE IT WILL BE LATER.                                          
COLD SUNDAY WITH ONLY MINOR TEMP RECOVERY AND THEN IN THE LOW                   
TO MID 20S SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD WIND CHILL TEMPS BOTH SUNDAY AND                  
SUNDAY NIGHT.                                                                   
WE`VE NOT HAD MEASURABLE SNOW IN THE MONTH OF DECEMBER AT NASHVILLE             
SINCE 2.6 INCHES FELL BACK IN DECEMBER OF 2000. SO WE ARE OVER DUE.             
THE MOST SNOW EVER TO FALL IN THE MONTH OF DECEMBER IS 13.2 INCHES              
BACK IN 1963. 7.4 INCHES OF SNOW FELL ON DECEMBER 22ND AND 23RD 1963.           
THE 1960`S WAS THE SNOWIEST DECADE ON RECORD IN NASHVILLE.                      
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
SNOW ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 12 PM CST SUNDAY FOR TNZ010-011-                     
031>034-065-066-080.                                                            
$$                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SNOW ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 12 PM CST SUNDAY FOR TNZ010-011-                     
031>034-065-066-080.                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
04                                                                              
</pre> tn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN                                           
118 PM CST SAT DEC 15 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
UPPER TROUGH BEGINNING TO PULL EAST PER LATEST SATELLITE LOOP.                  
RAIN AREA HAS BEEN SLOW COMING EAST WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER THE                    
WESTERN PARTS OF MID STATE THIS MORNING. CLARKSVILLE MEASURED 1.17              
INCHES SINCE 6 AM. DOPPLER SHOWS 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF                  
STEWART...MONTGOMERY...HOUSTON...BENTON AND HUMPHREYS. STILL MORE               
RAIN TO COME THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE RAIN AREA HAS BEEN                 
SLOW TO TRANSLATE EAST DURING THE DAY WITH DRIER AIR SHOWING UP                 
ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AT MID-DAY.                     
SURFACE FEATURES STILL TRYING TO GET ORGANIZED AS STORM IS VERY COMPLEX.        
AFTER LOOKING AT THE LATEST ISALLOBARIC PATTERN BELIEVE LATEST                  
RUC MAY HAVE THE BETTER HANDLE ON SURFACE LOW TRACK. LATEST RUC                 
HAS LOW NEAR LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES ABOUT 00Z. 12Z GFS IS A LITTLE              
MORE EAST OF THIS TRACK.                                                        
SHOULD BE SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW                 
TAKES PLACE FIRST IN THE NORTHWEST AND PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT. THERE               
WILL BE A MIX AT FIRST THEN A CHANGE TO ALL SNOW. WILL PLAY IT                  
THIS WAY: SNOW ADVISORY FOR PLATEAU COUNTIES WITH GENERALLY 1 TO 2              
INCHES POSSIBLE...CANT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED 3 INCH AMOUNTS. UP TO             
AN INCH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF MID STATE AND A DUSTING               
OVER THE SOUTH. THESE ACCUMULATIONS ARE BASED ON A 1 TO 10                      
RATIO WHICH MAY NOT BE ALL THAT REPRESENTATIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM                 
BUT BEST I CAN DO.                                                              
LIGHT SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO FLURRIES IN THE MORNING IN ALL AREAS                 
EXCEPT PLATEAU WHERE IT WILL BE LATER.                                          
COLD SUNDAY WITH ONLY MINOR TEMP RECOVERY AND THEN IN THE LOW                   
TO MID 20S SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD WIND CHILL TEMPS BOTH SUNDAY AND                  
SUNDAY NIGHT.                                                                   
WE`VE NOT HAD MEASURABLE SNOW IN THE MONTH OF DECEMBER AT NASHVILLE             
SINCE 2.6 INCHES FELL BACK IN DECEMBER OF 2000. SO WE ARE OVER DUE.             
THE MOST SNOW EVER TO FALL IN THE MONTH OF DECEMBER IS 13.2 INCHES              
BACK IN 1963. 7.4 INCHES OF SNOW FELL ON DECEMBER 22ND AND 23RD 1963.           
THE 1960`S WAS THE SNOWIEST DECADE ON RECORD IN NASHVILLE.                      
&&                                                                              
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SNOW ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 12 PM CST SUNDAY FOR TNZ010-011-                     
031>034-065-066-080.                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BOYD                                                                            
</pre> tn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
818 PM CST SUN DEC 16 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...BASED ON EVENING SOUNDING AND CURRENT DEWPOINT                        
DATA/ANALYSIS HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A FREEZE WARNING FOR WESTERN              
PORTIONS OF NUECES AND KLEBERG COUNTIES...NEAR AND WEST OF US HIGHWAY           
77. CURRENT TEMPS AT KCRP NOW AT 40F AND CONTINUING TO FALL.                    
DEWPOINTS AT HEBBRONVILLE AT 12F...KALI AT 23F AND KRBO AT 27F.                 
EVENING SOUNDING SHOWING EVEN DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER THAN                         
YESTERDAY...AND LATEST RUC FORECAST WINDS OVER NUECES AND KLEBERG               
COUNTIES ACTUALLY GO MORE NNW AFTER 06Z. THUS...HAVE DECIDED TO GO              
WITH THE FREEZE WARNING FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED COUNTIES AT THIS                 
TIME. RESIDENTS OF THE CITY OF CORPUS CHRISTI WILL LIKELY HAVE                  
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT IN ISOLATED AREAS                   
WHERE A LIGHT FREEZE CAN OCCUR. MODIFIED GRIDS SOME BASED ON                    
OBSERVATIONS. PRODUCTS OUT...WITH NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES.                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 535 PM CST SUN DEC 16 2007/                         
AVIATION UPDATE...VFR CONDS THRU THE TAF PERIOD. CLEAR                          
SKIES TONIGHT. HIGH CIRRUS STREAMING IN W TO E MON MORNING.                     
BKN 3500-5000 FT STRATACU DECK DVLPG S TO N NEAR AND AFTR 18Z.                  
LGT NE TO E WNDS OVERNIGHT BCMG LGT TO MDT SE WNDS BY 18Z.                      
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST SUN DEC 16 2007/                          
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...VERY LOW                            
DEWPOINTS...A COOL AIRMASS AND CLEAR SKIES WL ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE                
FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA TNT. GUIDANCE MINS                    
CONTINUE TO BE TOO WARM WITH THIS AIRMASS. AS A RESULT...WL                     
UNDERCUT TNTS MINS BY SVRL DEGS IN MOST PLACES. WL RE-ISSUE THE                 
FREEZE WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT FOR ARANSAS...KLEBERG                 
AND NUECES COUNTIES. RETURN FLOW WL BEGIN MONDAY MORNING AS                     
STRATUS BEGINS TO ADVANCE INLAND FROM THE GULF. EXPECT MOSTLY                   
CLOUDY TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS BY MON AFTN/EVE AS THE ISENTROPIC                 
UPGLIDE IN THE 290-295K LYR STRENGTHENS. LIGHT PCPN WL BEGIN TO                 
DEVELOP AS EARLY AS MON EVE OVER THE WATERS AND THEN AFFECT THE                 
ERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT MONDAY. WL GO WITH SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC                 
POPS FOR MON NIGHT. LEANED TWDS THE GFS TEMPS FOR MON AND MON                   
NIGHT.                                                                          
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND ALONG              
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL TAKE PLACE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.             
A FEW WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL                  
COMBINE WITH THE LIMITED MOISTURE AND A MODERATE LOW LEVEL JET TO               
PRODUCE A FEW SHRA`S ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND E TO NE CWA FOR              
TUE-WED TIMEFRAME. MAIN ISSUE FOR TUE-WED OVRNITE HRS WILL BE                   
POTENTIAL FOR FOG GIVEN THE HIGH RH VALUES AND WEAK SFC FLOW.                   
ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE A MIX OF FOG WITH STRATUS AS THE LLJ INCREASES            
EACH NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING A WEAK PAC FRONT              
THROUGH THE CWA ON THUR MORNING BUT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP OR               
CAA...JUST MAINLY A DRIER AIRMASS/LOWER DEWPOINTS. THUS MAX TEMPS               
WILL BE SIMILAR TO WED MAX TEMPS. THE SFC HIGH QUICKLY SHIFTS E THRU            
THE DAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW QUICKLY RETURNING BY THUR EVENING. THIS               
WILL USHER THE LIMITED MOISTURE/HIGHER DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE                  
CWA...LEADING TO ANOTHER MODERATE DAY ON FRI. MODELS HAVE BEEN                  
SHOWING A STRONGER COLD FRONT ON SAT...BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS               
THIS PAST CF THAT BLASTED THROUGH YESTERDAY (SATURDAY). A STRONG NLY            
AND DRIER/COOLER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO BLD ACROSS S TX THRU SAT AND            
CONT INTO SUN.                                                                  
AVIATION...CLEAR SKIES WL PREVAIL UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. STRATUS                 
WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN 4K AND 6K FT WL MOVE INLAND FROM THE GULF                 
BETWEEN 13Z AND 18Z MONDAY. VFR CEILINGS WL THEN PREVAIL AFTER 18Z              
MONDAY. MVFR CEILINGS WL THEN DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY                     
ACROSS ALI...CRP AND VCT.                                                       
MARINE...WL LET THE CURRENT SCA EXPIRE FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS                  
SINCE THE SEAS CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY SUBSIDE. OTHERWISE...A WK TO                 
MODERATE NE FLOW WL DEVELOP TNT AND BECOME ONSHORE ON MON/MON                   
NIGHT AS THE SFC RDG AXIS ACROSS SOUTH TX PUSHES RAPIDLY EWD.                   
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
CORPUS CHRISTI    32  63  55  75  63  /   0  10  30  20  10                     
VICTORIA          28  63  51  73  58  /   0  10  30  20  20                     
LAREDO            34  66  53  78  60  /   0   0  10  10  10                     
ALICE             31  63  54  77  60  /   0  10  20  10  10                     
ROCKPORT          38  61  56  71  63  /   0  10  30  20  20                     
COTULLA           29  63  47  77  56  /   0   0  10  10  10                     
KINGSVILLE        32  63  55  77  62  /   0  10  30  10  10                     
NAVY CORPUS       40  63  57  73  65  /   0  10  30  20  10                     
&&                                                                              
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING              
     ZONES: BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...                       
     KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...                       
     REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA...WEBB.                                  
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JR/76...SHORT TERM                                                              
GW/86...LONG TERM                                                               
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
1156 PM CST SAT DEC 15 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...UPDATED ZFPCRP FOR WINDS AND DID ADJUST TEMPS UP A BIT                
MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES WHERE WINDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS UP.                
WINDS ARE SUPPOSED TO DIMINISH (IT HAS BEEN TAKING LONGER THAN                  
EXPECTED) BUT MSAS IS SHOWING TIGHTEST GRADIENT MOVING INTO THE                 
COASTAL AREAS AT THIS TIME WITH GRADIENT MUCH LESS FARTHER INLAND.              
MAINTAINED FREEZE WARNING BUT LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE LONGER FOR                   
TEMPS TO REACH THAT LEVEL WITH WINDS UP MOST OF THE NIGHT. STILL                
POSSIBLE THAT FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR 2 TO 4 HOURS WILL OCCUR                 
OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. FINALLY...ALTHOUGH WINDS NEAR               
THE COAST IN A FEW LOCATIONS (KNGP) ARE IN THE WIND ADVISORY                    
CRITERION...MOST LOCATIONS DO NOT MEET CRITERION. THUS...PUT OUT                
SHORT-TERM FORECAST (WINDS ARE SUPPOSED TO DIMINISH) SO NO                      
ADVISORY. QUIETER AND MUCH LESS WIND ON SUNDAY. PRODUCTS ARE OUT.               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...MAINTAINED WIND SHEAR ENDING AOB 12Z AS 925MB                       
GRADIENT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH GRADUAL VEERING OF WINDS              
DURG DAY.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 948 PM CST SAT DEC 15 2007/                         
DISCUSSION...WINDS STILL CRANKING FROM TIME TO TIME NEAR THE COAST SO           
FOR NOW WILL NOT UPDATE ZFP UNTIL WINDS SETTLE DOWN (SHOULD BE BY               
MIDNIGHT). OTHERWISE...PREVIOUS FORECAST AND/OR UPDATED GRIDS SEEM              
TO BE HOLDING THEIR OWN ATTM SO NO UPDATES TO THE GRIDDED TEXT                  
PRODUCTS NEEDED AT THIS TIME EITHER. HAVE MAINTAINED THE HIGH END               
SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS AT THIS TIME. RUC AND NEW MET-MOS                   
SHOWING WINDS IN THE 30 TO 35 KNOT RANGE BUT YESTERDAY WINDS WERE               
ALREADY SUPPOSED TO BE IN THIS RANGE AND DID NOT/HAVE NOT YET                   
MATERIALIZED SO MAINTAINED SCA BUT DID GO 30 KNOTS SUSTAINED.                   
FIRE WEATHER...RH FIELDS FINALLY ABOVE 40 PERCENT EXCEPT AT NGP                 
WHERE WINDS ARE STRONGEST. AS MOST AREAS BELOW RED FLAG CRITERION               
NOW (AND GENERALLY HAVE BEEN SINCE 9 PM)...WILL LET RFW EXPIRE.                 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 PM CST SAT DEC 15 2007/                          
FIRE WEATHER...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RISING PRESSURES HAVE                
RESULTED IN WINDS STAYING UP THIS EVENING A BIT MORE THAN                       
EXPECTED. KCRP ASOS STILL HAD A 33 KNOT GUST WITHIN THE LAST HOUR.              
RH FIELDS OVER THE INLAND AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES                
ARE BELOW 40 PERCENT. THUS...EXTENDED THE RED FLAG WARNING ANOTHER              
TWO HOURS. FARTHER WEST...WIND GUSTS ARE STILL UP BUT RH FIELDS                 
ARE NEAR 30 PERCENT NOW AND WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECLINE WITH               
TEMPERATURES SO DID NOT EXTEND THE WARNING FARTHER WEST.                        
NORTHEASTERN COASTAL COUNTIES WIND GUSTS ARE LOWER AND RH FIELDS                
ARE HIGHER SO WARNING NOT EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.                                
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CST SAT DEC 15 2007/                          
UPDATE...WINDS HAVE GONE DOWN SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW WIND                 
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. STILL SOME BORDERLINE RED FLAG CONDITIONS                   
(AOA 25 MPH GUSTS AND RH AOB 30 RH) OVER INLAND SECTIONS BUT WINDS              
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND RH FIELDS GO UP SO DID NOT EXTEND               
THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE INLAND AREAS...THUS THAT WAS ALLOWED               
TO EXPIRE. ZFPCRP UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED...AS WELL AS NPW. NO                   
OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.                                                     
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 559 PM CST SAT DEC 15 2007/                          
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH                 
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. STRONG NW SFC WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVRNITE                  
AND SLOWLY VEER TO THE NE AND E THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE SFC HIGH                  
SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA.                                                        
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CST SAT DEC 15 2007/                          
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...THE CURRENT WIND ADVY               
IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 00Z AND THIS STILL LOOKS GOOD. BY THAT                      
TIME...THE WINDS WL HAVE DECOUPLED AS THE LOW LVL STABILITY                     
INCREASES. OTHERWISE...A CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS                
THE CWA AS CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT SEWD FROM THE               
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. FREEZING TEMPS LOOK TO BE LKLY ACROSS THE NRN                 
HALF OF THE CWA SINCE WINDS WL CONTINUE TO DECOUPLE AND WEAKEN. AS              
USUAL THE GUIDANCE MINS FOR TNT ARE JUST A BIT TOO WARM. GUIDANCE               
HIGHS ON SUN WERE BASICALLY SVRL DEGS TOO WARM AND DECIDED TO                   
LOWER THESE BASED UPON THE FCST SOUNDINGS. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS                
EXPECTED ON SUN NIGHT AS THE SFC RDG AXIS WL BE RIGHT OVER THE                  
AREA...MAINTAINING LIGHT WINDS AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS. WL GO A FEW              
DEGREES BELOW GUIDNACE MINS FOR TMW NIGHT AS WELL.                              
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON              
MONDAY. MODELS ARE PROGGING 925-850MB MOISTURE TO RETURN RATHER                 
QUICKLY...AND EVEN NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE. MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE                 
GIVEN HOW DRY AIRMASS IS BEHIND THIS MORNINGS COLD FRONT.                       
NEVERTHELESS...DO ANTICIPATE CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE MONDAY                     
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. COULD            
SEE SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS               
THE COASTAL BEND MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A VERY WEAK            
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE PLAINS WILL DRAG MOISTURE AXIS EAST ON                 
TUESDAY INTO THE GULF AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WITH CLEARING ACROSS            
SOUTH TEXAS. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.                
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL RETURN BACK WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO                   
ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS INTO              
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HEALTHY SUBTROPICAL JET ALSO SETS UP ACROSS                
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ON              
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. THE SHORTWAVE WILL              
PUSH A VERY WEAK FRONT INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH A WEST FLOW             
TEMPORARILY DEVELOPING BEHIND IT. SO WILL ACTUALLY SEE WARMER                   
AFTERNOON TEMPS AND COOLER LOWS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.                    
BEYOND THIS MODELS DIVERGE...WITH GFS SHOWING A STRONG COLD FRONT               
SATURDAY AND ECMWF WETTER AND DELAYED ABOUT 24 HOURS. WILL CONTINUE             
TO SIDE TOWARDS THE GFS FOR CONSISTENCY.                                        
MARINE...HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ADVY CONDITIONS WL PERSIST THROUGH                
MOST OF TNT GIVEN THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DECENT CAA. WL               
BOOST SEAS TO 10 TO 13 FT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS BASED UPON THE                
WIND WAVE NOMOGRAM. A GRADUAL DIMINISHMENT OF WINDS AND SEAS IS                 
EXPECTED TO COMMENCE SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE DURING THE DAY ON              
SUNDAY.                                                                         
FIRE WEATHER...WIDESPREAD RED FLAG WARNING CONDITIONS ARE                       
CURRENTLY ONGOING. AS THE WINDS DIMINISH AND HUMIDITIES RECOVER                 
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO            
END. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT RFW AND SO NO CHANGES ARE                 
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.                                                            
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.                      
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
CORPUS CHRISTI    37  59  38  67  56  /   0   0   0  10  20                     
VICTORIA          31  57  33  64  52  /   0   0   0   0  20                     
LAREDO            38  64  41  68  53  /   0   0   0   0  10                     
ALICE             35  61  35  68  54  /   0   0   0   0  10                     
ROCKPORT          40  57  41  66  58  /   0   0   0   0  20                     
COTULLA           30  62  33  65  50  /   0   0   0   0  10                     
KINGSVILLE        35  60  37  69  57  /   0   0   0  10  20                     
NAVY CORPUS       45  58  43  68  59  /   0   0   0  10  20                     
&&                                                                              
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING              
     ZONES: BEE...GOLIAD...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...                    
     VICTORIA.                                                                  
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING              
     ZONES: WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM...                    
     WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM.                 
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING               
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...               
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR.                     
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING               
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20                    
     NM...COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL                 
     OUT 20 NM.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GW/86...SHORT TERM                                                              
TM/95...LONG TERM                                                               
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
948 PM CST SAT DEC 15 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...WINDS STILL CRANKING FROM TIME TO TIME NEAR THE COAST SO          
FOR NOW WILL NOT UPDATE ZFP UNTIL WINDS SETTLE DOWN (SHOULD BE BY               
MIDNIGHT). OTHERWISE...PREVIOUS FORECAST AND/OR UPDATED GRIDS SEEM              
TO BE HOLDING THEIR OWN ATTM SO NO UPDATES TO THE GRIDDED TEXT                  
PRODUCTS NEEDED AT THIS TIME EITHER. HAVE MAINTAINED THE HIGH END               
SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS AT THIS TIME. RUC AND NEW MET-MOS                   
SHOWING WINDS IN THE 30 TO 35 KNOT RANGE BUT YESTERDAY WINDS WERE               
ALREADY SUPPOSED TO BE IN THIS RANGE AND DID NOT/HAVE NOT YET                   
MATERIALIZED SO MAINTAINED SCA BUT DID GO 30 KNOTS SUSTAINED.                   
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...RH FIELDS FINALLY ABOVE 40 PERCENT EXCEPT AT NGP                
WHERE WINDS ARE STRONGEST. AS MOST AREAS BELOW RED FLAG CRITERION               
NOW (AND GENERALLY HAVE BEEN SINCE 9 PM)...WILL LET RFW EXPIRE.                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 PM CST SAT DEC 15 2007/                         
FIRE WEATHER...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RISING PRESSURES HAVE                
RESULTED IN WINDS STAYING UP THIS EVENING A BIT MORE THAN                       
EXPECTED. KCRP ASOS STILL HAD A 33 KNOT GUST WITHIN THE LAST HOUR.              
RH FIELDS OVER THE INLAND AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES                
ARE BELOW 40 PERCENT. THUS...EXTENDED THE RED FLAG WARNING ANOTHER              
TWO HOURS. FARTHER WEST...WIND GUSTS ARE STILL UP BUT RH FIELDS                 
ARE NEAR 30 PERCENT NOW AND WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECLINE WITH               
TEMPERATURES SO DID NOT EXTEND THE WARNING FARTHER WEST.                        
NORTHEASTERN COASTAL COUNTIES WIND GUSTS ARE LOWER AND RH FIELDS                
ARE HIGHER SO WARNING NOT EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.                                
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CST SAT DEC 15 2007/                          
UPDATE...WINDS HAVE GONE DOWN SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW WIND                 
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. STILL SOME BORDERLINE RED FLAG CONDITIONS                   
(AOA 25 MPH GUSTS AND RH AOB 30 RH) OVER INLAND SECTIONS BUT WINDS              
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND RH FIELDS GO UP SO DID NOT EXTEND               
THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE INLAND AREAS...THUS THAT WAS ALLOWED               
TO EXPIRE. ZFPCRP UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED...AS WELL AS NPW. NO                   
OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.                                                     
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 559 PM CST SAT DEC 15 2007/                          
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH                 
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. STRONG NW SFC WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVRNITE                  
AND SLOWLY VEER TO THE NE AND E THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE SFC HIGH                  
SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA.                                                        
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CST SAT DEC 15 2007/                          
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...THE CURRENT WIND ADVY               
IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 00Z AND THIS STILL LOOKS GOOD. BY THAT                      
TIME...THE WINDS WL HAVE DECOUPLED AS THE LOW LVL STABILITY                     
INCREASES. OTHERWISE...A CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS                
THE CWA AS CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT SEWD FROM THE               
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. FREEZING TEMPS LOOK TO BE LKLY ACROSS THE NRN                 
HALF OF THE CWA SINCE WINDS WL CONTINUE TO DECOUPLE AND WEAKEN. AS              
USUAL THE GUIDANCE MINS FOR TNT ARE JUST A BIT TOO WARM. GUIDANCE               
HIGHS ON SUN WERE BASICALLY SVRL DEGS TOO WARM AND DECIDED TO                   
LOWER THESE BASED UPON THE FCST SOUNDINGS. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS                
EXPECTED ON SUN NIGHT AS THE SFC RDG AXIS WL BE RIGHT OVER THE                  
AREA...MAINTAINING LIGHT WINDS AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS. WL GO A FEW              
DEGREES BELOW GUIDNACE MINS FOR TMW NIGHT AS WELL.                              
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON              
MONDAY. MODELS ARE PROGGING 925-850MB MOISTURE TO RETURN RATHER                 
QUICKLY...AND EVEN NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE. MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE                 
GIVEN HOW DRY AIRMASS IS BEHIND THIS MORNINGS COLD FRONT.                       
NEVERTHELESS...DO ANTICIPATE CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE MONDAY                     
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. COULD            
SEE SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS               
THE COASTAL BEND MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A VERY WEAK            
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE PLAINS WILL DRAG MOISTURE AXIS EAST ON                 
TUESDAY INTO THE GULF AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WITH CLEARING ACROSS            
SOUTH TEXAS. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.                
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL RETURN BACK WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO                   
ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS INTO              
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HEALTHY SUBTROPICAL JET ALSO SETS UP ACROSS                
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ON              
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. THE SHORTWAVE WILL              
PUSH A VERY WEAK FRONT INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH A WEST FLOW             
TEMPORARILY DEVELOPING BEHIND IT. SO WILL ACTUALLY SEE WARMER                   
AFTERNOON TEMPS AND COOLER LOWS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.                    
BEYOND THIS MODELS DIVERGE...WITH GFS SHOWING A STRONG COLD FRONT               
SATURDAY AND ECMWF WETTER AND DELAYED ABOUT 24 HOURS. WILL CONTINUE             
TO SIDE TOWARDS THE GFS FOR CONSISTENCY.                                        
MARINE...HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ADVY CONDITIONS WL PERSIST THROUGH                
MOST OF TNT GIVEN THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DECENT CAA. WL               
BOOST SEAS TO 10 TO 13 FT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS BASED UPON THE                
WIND WAVE NOMOGRAM. A GRADUAL DIMINISHMENT OF WINDS AND SEAS IS                 
EXPECTED TO COMMENCE SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE DURING THE DAY ON              
SUNDAY.                                                                         
FIRE WEATHER...WIDESPREAD RED FLAG WARNING CONDITIONS ARE                       
CURRENTLY ONGOING. AS THE WINDS DIMINISH AND HUMIDITIES RECOVER                 
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO            
END. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT RFW AND SO NO CHANGES ARE                 
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.                                                            
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.                      
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
CORPUS CHRISTI    35  59  38  67  56  /   0   0   0  10  20                     
VICTORIA          31  57  33  64  52  /   0   0   0   0  20                     
LAREDO            37  64  41  68  53  /   0   0   0   0  10                     
ALICE             33  61  35  68  54  /   0   0   0   0  10                     
ROCKPORT          39  57  41  66  58  /   0   0   0   0  20                     
COTULLA           29  62  33  65  50  /   0   0   0   0  10                     
KINGSVILLE        33  60  37  69  57  /   0   0   0  10  20                     
NAVY CORPUS       42  58  43  68  59  /   0   0   0  10  20                     
&&                                                                              
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING              
     ZONES: BEE...GOLIAD...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...                    
     VICTORIA.                                                                  
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING            
     ZONES: KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO.                                    
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING              
     ZONES: WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM...                    
     WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM.                 
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING               
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...               
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR.                     
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING               
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20                    
     NM...COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL                 
     OUT 20 NM.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TE/81...MESO/AVIATION                                                           
GW/86...SYNOPTIC/GRIDS                                                          
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX                                  
136 AM CST SAT DEC 15 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
JUST DID A QUICK UPDATE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER POPS FOR THE               
NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT.                                         
&&                                                                              
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 928 PM CST FRI DEC 14 2007/                          
UPDATE...                                                                       
UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE MIN TEMPS TONIGHT BY 1-3 DEGREES                   
BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND TRENDS. ALSO TWEAKED 1ST PERIOD POPS               
DOWN BY 10-20 PERCENT ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-THRIDS BASED ON RADAR              
TRENDS AND LATEST RUC AND LOCAL WRF OUTPUT. PATCHES OF DENSE FOG                
WILL CONTINUE...BUT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS             
TIME AS THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH.                     
NEW SUITE OF PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.                                              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              60  35  61  35  61 /  10   0   0   0   0         
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  61  30  59  26  61 /  10   0   0   0   0         
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           64  34  59  36  62 /  -    0   0   0   0         
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       66  30  61  32  59 /  -    0   0   0   0         
&&                                                                              
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR             
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...                 
BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...              
FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...            
KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...                    
MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...            
ZAVALA.                                                                         
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE             
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: KINNEY...MAVERICK...VAL VERDE.                              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
26/18                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                            
1144 PM CST FRI DEC 14 2007                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...CURRENT RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER               
TROUGH OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS TROUGH IS STILL ON TRACK TO LIFT           
NORTHEAST AND WILL PUSH EAST OF THE PANHANDLES SAT. CURRENT RADAR               
IMAGERY SHOWS BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW LIFTING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND             
EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS              
AND TIME/HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW DRY AIR MOVING IN RAPIDLY ON                
THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...WHICH WILL END PRECIP CHANCES BY AROUND           
11-12Z. BEYOND THIS...EXPECT CIGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY AROUND 16-17Z            
WITH SKC CONDITIONS BY 00Z. AS FOR WINDS...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL           
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND BACK MORE TOWARD THE WEST AND DIMINISH TO                
UNDER 10 KTS BY THE END OF THE 24 HOUR FCST.                                    
CLK                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 PM CST FRI DEC 14 2007/                         
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN CENTERS ON TIMING OF WINTRY PRECIP OVER THE               
FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE FORECAST.                                                 
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO           
THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND HEAD TOWARD ARKANSAS SAT. MEANWHILE AN              
ASSOCIATED S/WV WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...PROVIDING                   
ADDITIONAL LIFT ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLES TONIGHT. A SURFACE FRONT            
WAS CONTINUING TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WHICH WILL             
BRING IN COOLER AIR. FORECAST SOUNDING ANALYSIS INDICATE PRECIP TYPE            
MAINLY AS SNOW SO EXPECT ANY FZDZ TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THIS                   
EVENING. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND             
OVERNIGHT WITH LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY EARLY            
SAT MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. MODEL                   
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME/HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW              
AMPLE MOISTURE LINGERING IN THE LLVLS SO GRADUALLY INDICATED                    
IMPROVING CIGS TOWARD THE END OF THE FCST WITH VFR CONDITIONS                   
EXPECTED BY AROUND 20Z.                                                         
CLK                                                                             
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CST FRI DEC 14 2007/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM SINCE THE NOON UPDATE EARLIER                
TODAY. DID UP POPS A FEW POINTS ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES FOR               
TONIGHT. COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.          
APPEARS THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF A LINE FROM GUYMON TO           
DALHART. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A FEW OB SITES STILL REPORTING VERY               
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FOG...BUT THIS SHOULD TRANSITION TO SNOW AS           
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THINKING THE FRONT SHOULD REACH               
AMARILLO AND THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AROUND 00Z. STILL APPEARS             
THAT THE EASTERN PANHANDLES ARE IN LINE FOR THE MOST SNOWFALL                   
ACCUMULATIONS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE WEST. HAD SOME CONCERN THAT            
THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE MAY NOT REALIZE THE 4 TO 5 INCH SNOW              
TOTALS...BUT THIS AREA WILL FALL IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER           
JET SO SOME ENHANCEMENT COULD TAKE PLACE LEADING TO LOCALIZED HEAVY             
SNOW. SOME OF THE SNOW BANDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 1 TO 2 INCHES         
OF SNOW PER HOUR AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS                   
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED ABOUT THE RECENT NAM12             
SOLUTION THAT PAINTS MORE SNOW ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AS IT               
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING. ALTHOUGH IT DOES APPEAR               
THAT THE VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRECIP WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR           
CWA. SO STILL ANTICIPATE THE SNOW DECREASING AFTER 12Z...WITH A FEW             
FLURRIES LINGERING ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES POSSIBLY INTO THE              
18Z TIME FRAME. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ACCUMULATIONS WORTHY OF                   
EXTENDING THE WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH 18Z HOWEVER. CURRENT                 
THINKING IS TO ALLOW THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WINTER STORM               
WARNING TO EXPIRE AT 12Z.                                                       
AFTER THIS EVENT FINALLY SHUFFLES OFF ITS MORTAL COIL...THE REST OF             
THE PACKAGE IS RELATIVELY QUIET. HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN WITHIN A FEW            
DEGREES OF FREEZING TOMORROW. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL GIVE WAY TO                 
BRIEF NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING RIDGE. THE NORTHERLY              
SFC WINDS WILL BACK TO THE WEST ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDS             
IN BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT. THIS WILL HELP HIGH TEMPS WARM INTO THE            
LOW 40S ON SUNDAY. SFC TROUGH THEN TRIES TO DEVELOP MONDAY INTO                 
TUESDAY...ALLOWING THE SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE DURING THE                   
AFTERNOON ON MONDAY. ANY WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD HELP MELT                    
LINGERING SNOW...SO THINKING TEMPS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 50 DEGREE             
RANGE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DID NOTICE THAT GUIDANCE WAS KEEPING HIGH             
TEMPS COOL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PANHANDLES WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS           
EXPECTED. CONTINUED THIS TREND IN THE GRIDS THROUGH MONDAY...BUT                
THINKING THE SNOW SHOULD NO LONGER BE AN ISSUE BY TUESDAY. MODELS               
HINT AT ANOTHER UPPER WAVE AND COLD FRONT THAT MAY IMPACT THE                   
PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS TROUGH LOOKS VERY                      
PROGRESSIVE PROVIDING A SHORT WINDOW FOR PRECIP. MODELS ARE DRY AT              
THIS POINT...SO WAS CONTENT TO LEAVE THE 10 POPS IN FOR NOW AND BEGIN           
TRENDING UP IF THE TROUGH DEEPENS MORE THAN MODELS CURRENTLY SUGGEST.           
APPEARS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH            
THE PANHANDLES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...SO REFLECTED THIS IDEA            
IN THE HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY. IN FACT...TEMPS COULD BE WARMER THAN             
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ON WEDNESDAY AS MODELS SHOW A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING           
AHEAD OF THE FRONT PROVIDING 15 TO 25KT WESTERLY WINDS.                         
OTHERWISE...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SNOWFALL AND FREEZING                  
DRIZZLE AND MAKE UPDATES TO THE FORECAST AS NEEDED.                             
&&                                                                              
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
TX...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING             
     ZONES: COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...HEMPHILL...                         
     LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...WHEELER.                                  
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE                    
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...               
     HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...               
     RANDALL...SHERMAN.                                                         
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING             
     ZONES: BEAVER.                                                             
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE                    
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
15/05                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX                                  
1134 PM CST FRI DEC 14 2007                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISENTROPIC LIFT/OVERRUNNING CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE                
APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. SHOWERS ARE INCREASING                
IN COVERAGE SOUTHWEST OF KSSF AND KSAT. THE RUC AND NAM MODELS                  
INDICATE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE              
AS THE AREA SHIFTS EASTWARD. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO IMPACT                 
THE I-35 TERMINALS THROUGH 09Z. ATTM IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL                
AT KSSF...KSAT AND KAUS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AT KDRT. CIGS AND                  
VSBYS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE TO MVFR AFTER 09Z FOR THE I-35                      
TERMINALS AS A PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROF MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS THE                   
REGION. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE RAPIDLY TO VFR WITH THE PASSAGE OF              
THE COLD FRONT. FROPA IS FCST FOR 13Z AT KDRT AND KAUS...AND 14Z AT             
KSAT AND KSSF. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE FROPA                 
INITIALLY AT SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS. DOWNWARD MIXING WILL CAUSE                 
WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KTS BY LATE MORNING. STRONG                 
SFC WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN FRICTIONAL LOW LEVEL                
TURBULENCE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS AFTER SUNSET                   
SATURDAY.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 928 PM CST FRI DEC 14 2007/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE MIN TEMPS TONIGHT BY 1-3 DEGREES                   
BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND TRENDS. ALSO TWEAKED 1ST PERIOD POPS               
DOWN BY 10-20 PERCENT ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-THRIDS BASED ON RADAR              
TRENDS AND LATEST RUC AND LOCAL WRF OUTPUT. PATCHES OF DENSE FOG                
WILL CONTINUE...BUT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS             
TIME AS THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH.                     
NEW SUITE OF PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.                                              
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CST FRI DEC 14 2007/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL               
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AS WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE TEXAS COASTAL               
BEND AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN              
ROCKIES. SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT DUE WARM FRONT               
TO SOUTHEAST AND UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM WEST.                 
HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER ACROSS THE EAST DUE TO                 
UPPER JET DYNAMICS AND PROXIMITY TO WARM FRONT. COULD EVEN BE SOME              
SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAINS. AREAS OF FOG AS MODERATE LOW LEVEL JET              
KEEPS AIRMASS SLIGHTLY MIXED, ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG CAN                
BE EXPECTED. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE                   
OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL CLEAR THE FOG                 
AND CLOUDS, ALTHOUGH SOME WRAPAROUND CLOUDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE               
NORTH ON SATURDAY AS UPPER TROUGH PASSES ACROSS TEXAS. NORTHWEST                
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL DEVELOP AFTER                   
SUNRISE ON SATURDAY AS SOLAR HEATING AND SUBSIDENCE MIX STRONGER                
WINDS TO THE SURFACE. THUS, HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY SATURDAY.               
DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL COUNTER ACT THE COLD ADVECTION AND WILL ALLOW              
HIGHS TO BE NEAR AVERAGE. WINDS WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET              
LEADING TO FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS A WIDE AREA OF SOUTH                    
CENTRAL TEXAS BY SUNDAY MORNING. SOME AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE A HARD               
FREEZE, ESPECIALLY IN THE HILL COUNTRY. COLD ADVECTION WILL END BY              
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE AS THE SURFACE HIGH                    
SETTLES OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW                 
FREEZING CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A ZONAL FLOW               
ALOFT WILL PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK ALLOWING A SERIES OF               
FAIRLY WEAK SHORT-WAVES TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES. THE                  
SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING A SOUTHERLY TO                  
DEVELOP ON MONDAY AND PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL                  
SHOW A WARMING TREND TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WEDNESDAY                
AND THURSDAY. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY                
TAKING MAINLY LOW TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARD AVERAGE. ENOUGH                      
MOISTURE AND LIFT SUGGESTS 10 TO 20 POPS EASTERN AREAS WEDNESDAY                
INTO THURSDAY. DRY AGAIN ON FRIDAY IN WAKE OF FRONT. MODELS                     
SUGGEST ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NEXT                    
WEEKEND JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH              
THE MAV/MEX TEMPERATURES, EXCEPT 1 TO 3 DEGREES COLDER SUNDAY                   
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING DUE LOWER DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS.                  
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS FOR                    
SATURDAY AFTERNOON DUE 20 FOOT WINDS ABOVE 15 MPH AND RELATIVE                  
HUMIDITIES BELOW 25 PERCENT. OTHER PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS                 
MAY SEE THESE CONDITIONS FOR AN HOUR AND WERE NOT INCLUDED.                     
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              49  60  35  61  35 /  40  10   0   0   0         
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  50  61  30  59  26 /  50  10   0   0   0         
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           45  64  34  59  36 /  10  -    0   0   0         
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       50  66  30  61  32 /  30  -    0   0   0         
&&                                                                              
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING                  
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...             
CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...               
GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...            
KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...            
UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.                              
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 12 PM TO 5 PM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING              
COUNTIES: KINNEY...MAVERICK...VAL VERDE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
11/13                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
224 PM CST SUN DEC 16 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
MAIN SHORT TERM PROBLEM IS SKY COVER. STRATUS HOLDING TIGHT OVER                
AREAS WEST OF MADISON. ONLY MODEL TO HAVE REASONABLE DEPICTION OF               
LOW LEVEL RH IS THE RUC. RUC TRIES TO INCREASE 925 MB OVER                      
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AS SUBSIDENCE FROM STRONG LOW OVER THE                      
NORTHEAST U.S. WEAKENS. SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS TRYING TO PUSH                   
SOUTH FROM NORTHEAST WISCONSIN BUT ERODES. EXPECT THIS TREND TO                 
CONTINUE...BUT AS SUBSIDENCE WEAKENS CLOUDS MAY YET MAKE IT INTO                
THE SOUTHEAST. WITH CLEAR SKIES EARLY...TEMPS SHOULD DROP OVER THE              
FRESH SNOW COVER TO BELOW MOS MINS.                                             
MOS TEMPS APPEAR TOO WARM FOR MONDAY.                                           
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY.                       
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH A SERIES OF WEAK                   
SHORTWAVES. EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF AND GFS FOR ANOTHER                  
WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. LIGHT SNOW                 
FROM THIS MAINLY IN AREAS TO THE NORTH.                                         
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
THEN A SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY                      
THURSDAY. GFS HAS A MORE CLOSED SURFACE LOW PUSHING ACROSS                      
SOUTHERN INDIANA WITH LITTLE OR NO QPF OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.                 
ECMWF HAS A MORE NORTH SOUTH OPEN TROF...SPREADING MORE QPF...UP                
TO 0.30 INCH ACROSS THE IL BORDER...WITH SOME QPF EVEN ACROSS OUR               
NORTH AREAS. WILL TREND TOWARD ECMWF AS THIS SEEMS MORE REASONABLE              
WITH UPPER PATTERN...ALTHOUGH QPF MAY BE OVERDONE.                              
STRONG SHORTWAVE FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH BOTH ECMWF AND GFS HAVING A              
LOW TRACK THAT WOULD PUT A RAIN SNOW MIX POTENTIAL IN THE FAR                   
SOUTHEAST.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MAIN ISSUE FOR TAFS IS TRYING TO GET A HANDLE ON MVFR/BORDERLINE                
IFR CLOUD DECK MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH SOUTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN.                  
MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW SHALLOW INVERSION. INVERSION EXPECTED TO                 
LOWER TONIGHT AND STRENGTHEN WITH SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER AT                   
KMSN. INVERSION AND MOISTURE NOT AS STRONG AT KMKE.                             
FEEL NONE OF THE MODELS HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THEIR QUICK                     
DEPARTURE OF THE STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SO...WILL              
UPDATE TAFS TO CARRY PREVAILING MVFR/BORDERLINE IFR CEILINGS AT KMSN            
THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH SOME MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG                  
POSSIBLE. WILL KEEP KMKE AND KENW WITH PREVAILING SCATTERED                     
CLOUDS...WITH SOME BROKEN MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. DECK SHOULD RAISE             
AT KMSN MONDAY MORNING.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRES AT 03Z MONDAY. MIXING OF 25 KNOT                   
WINDS DOWN TO SURFACE FROM 1000 FEET SHOULD SUBSIDE AFTER 00Z                   
MONDAY...AS INVERSION LOWERS. HIGH WAVES TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS                 
SHOULD THEN SUBSIDE AS OFFSHORE WINDS DECREASE.                                 
&&                                                                              
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CORRECTED ENDING TIME OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN MARINE SECTION                 
SHORT/LONG TERM...HENTZ                                                         
AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD                                                          
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
1132 AM CST SUN DEC 16 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED EARLIER TO SIGNIFICANTLY DELAY ANY CLEARING INTO THE                    
FORECAST AREA...IN FACT...LATEST THINKING BASED ON RUC13 LOWEST                 
100MB MOISTURE FIELDS...TIME OF YEAR /CLIMATOLOGY/...AND SATELLITE              
IMAGERY SUGGESTS IT WILL BE WELL INTO THE NIGHTTIME BEFORE ANY                  
CLEARING TAKES PLACE. ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE WHERE STRATUS              
BECOMES THIN ENOUGH TO PUNCH HOLES IN IT. NOT SEEING THIS AT ALL PER            
SATELLITE IMAGERY. DESPITE OTHER MODELS BEST INTENTIONS ON DRYING               
THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND LOW LEVELS...DON/T FEEL IT WILL HAPPEN ANYTIME           
SOON GIVEN VERY LOW SUN ANGLES...APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE LOW LEVEL                
RIDGING /DECREASING MIXING/ AND INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AFTER                 
00Z /STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL INVERSION/...SO WILL LIKELY BE CLOUDY              
INTO MUCH OF THE NIGHT. EVEN IF WE CLEAR...LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST                 
ADVECTION SUGGESTS FOG WILL BECOME RAMPANT AS IT DID THIS MORNING               
UNDER SIMILAR CONDITIONS OVER THE DAKOTAS. WIDESPREAD FLURRY                    
ACTION WITH THE LOW CEILINGS AS WELL. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE                   
THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL. WILL NEED TO VISIT HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON                
HERE SOON...AND MAY NEED TO PULL BACK ON AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.                
BINAU                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 AM CST SUN DEC 16 2007/                         
SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY                                                    
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE                    
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.                        
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER                     
SOUTHEAST INDIANA. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM                     
MANITOBA AND ONTARIO SOUTH INTO LOWER PLAINS STATES.                            
RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD EXPECTED WITH ONLY SOME MINOR                           
PRECIPITATION EVENTS TO DEAL WITH. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE A              
SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS                  
SOUTHERN CANADA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSE              
ENOUGH TO ALLOW ABOUT 8 PVU/S OF VORTICITY ADVECTION IN THE 500 TO              
300 MB LAYER TO CROSS OVER THE REGION. THIS IS ABOUT ALL THE                    
FORCING THERE IS WITH THIS SYSTEM. TIME/HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW              
A LOT OF DRY AIR BELOW 500 MB SO ONLY EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN                  
HIGH CLOUDS FROM THIS SYSTEM.                                                   
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE              
TROUGH FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS IS STRONGER AND                   
FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE WAVE THAN EITHER THE NAM OR ECMWF. MODEL                 
DISCUSSION FROM HPC INDICATES THE GFS AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE                 
THE OUTLIER WITH THIS WAVE. DESPITE THIS...WILL LEAVE IN THE SMALL              
POPS INTRODUCED ACROSS THE NORTH FOR CONTINUITY AND TO AGREE WITH               
OFFICES TO THE EAST. TIME/HEIGHT CROSS SECTION FOR KMDZ FROM THE                
GFS SHOWS ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN THE MOISTURE BELOW 500 MB WITH              
THIS SYSTEM RAISING QUESTIONS AS TO WHETHER SATURATION WILL OCCUR.              
IF THE GFS DOES END UP BEING CORRECT...IT DOES SHOW MODERATE QG                 
CONVERGENCE WITH THIS WAVE ALONG WITH 1-2 MICROBARS/S OF UPGLIDE                
ON THE 280K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. IF THIS SYSTEM PRODUCES ANY                     
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...IT WILL LIKELY BE NOTHING              
MORE THAN SOME FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW.                                     
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY                                      
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SURFACE LOW COMING                
OUT OF THE LOWER PLAINS BUT ARE NOW TRACKING THIS MORE                          
EAST/NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WOULD AGAIN PUT                 
THE AREA ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE SYSTEM...SIMILAR TO THE                  
SYSTEM THAT JUST PAST BY SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO COME                 
OUT OF THE LOWER PLAINS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND POSSIBLY                       
SPREADING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY. CURRENT                 
DATABASE HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS AND NO CHANGES              
ARE PLANNED.                                                                    
AVIATION...                                                                     
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION/HIGH PRESSURE HAS LEAD            
TO A BROAD AREA OF LOW CLOUDS //MOSTLY SUB 1 KFT// ACROSS MN AND                
WESTERN WI. WITH THE INVERSION HOLDING FAST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...DO            
NOT EXPECT THE MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TO MIX OUT...RATHER THEY WILL                  
TRANSITION FROM WEST TO EAST AS THAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES               
OVERHEAD FOR TONIGHT. CURRENT TIMING WOULD HAVE KRST START TO                   
SCATTER OUT BY 18Z...AND NEAR 21Z FOR KLSE. SOME RESTRICTIONS TO                
VSBY WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...DUE TO FG/HZ/SN-...MOSTLY ONLY             
AS LOW AS 3 TO 5SM. SOME HINTS THAT MORE LOW STRATUS COULD DEVELOP              
TONIGHT...BUT MODEL TRENDS ARE TO SIGNIFICANTLY SHALLOW OUT THE LOW             
SATURATION...ALONG WITH BRINGING IN MORE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...SO WILL             
KEEP CONDITIONS SKC FOR NOW.                                                    
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
SHORT/LONG TERM...04                                                            
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
1216 PM CST SAT DEC 15 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED A LITTLE WHILE AGO TO INCREASE SNOW AMOUNTS IN OUR FAR                  
SOUTH...NAMELY GRANT COUNTY...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF                   
GRANT COUNTY WHERE LATEST /12Z AND 15Z/ RUC AND 12Z WRF DATA                    
SUGGESTS 500-600MB FRONTOGENESIS REGION WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY              
EVENING...PRODUCING OCCASIONAL LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW. RADAR                    
REALLY BLOSSOMING OVER SRN/ERN IA TO OUR SOUTH IN THE LAST HOUR                 
AS DEFORMATION ZONE REALLY TAKES SHAPE AND SFC CYCLONE STARTING TO              
DEEPEN QUICKLY OFF TO THE SOUTH. SHOULD SEE SNOWFALL RATES                      
INCREASE IN THE FAR SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...PEAKING MID                   
AFTERNOON...THEN TAILING OFF INTO THE EVENING. COULD SEE LOCAL 3                
INCH AMOUNTS IN FAR SOUTH...WHICH IS INCLUDED IN LATEST PRODUCTS.               
WILL WATCH BACK EDGE OF SNOW AND ADJUST FORECAST AS NEEDED.                     
BINAU                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 AM CST SAT DEC 15 2007/                         
SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY                                                     
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THE SNOW CHANCES TODAY AND TONIGHT.               
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED                
OVER MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED                 
FROM ARKANSAS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. OBSERVATIONS AND                      
REGIONAL RADARS INDICATE LIGHT SNOW FALLING NORTH OF THE TROUGH                 
FROM KANSAS AND NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN IOWA.                                     
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING IN TAKING THE LONG                 
WAVE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST                   
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE LONG              
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF OKLAHOMA TODAY ACROSS MISSOURI AND                 
HELP TO FORM A CLOSED LOW OVER ILLINOIS OR INDIANA LATE TONIGHT.                
THE BEST PV ADVECTION WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST                      
AREA...BUT THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR 8 TO 12               
PVU/S OF VORTICITY ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER TO PASS OVER               
THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODERATE TO STRONG QG               
CONVERGENCE WILL OCCUR WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TODAY ABOVE 500               
MB. AT THE SAME TIME...WEAK FRONTOGENESIS IS EXPECTED IN THE 700                
TO 500 MB LAYER. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE                 
MUCH TODAY WHICH WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN A DRY NORTHEAST FLOW INTO                
THE AREA. LOOKING AT TIME/HEIGHT PLOTS FROM THE GFS...IT LOOKS AS               
IF THE DRY AIR WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON HOW FAR NORTH AND                      
PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE INTO THE AREA WITH SATURATION LIKELY                    
OCCURRING OVER THE FAR SOUTH AND QUICKLY BECOMING SOME WHAT                     
DOUBTFUL FROM THE KCCY AREA OVER TOWARD CENTRAL WISCONSIN. PLAN TO              
HAVE A SHARP GRADIENT WITH THE POPS FROM LIKELY IN THE SOUTH                    
QUICKLY DROPPING OFF TO 20S FROM NEW HAMPTON IOWA INTO CENTRAL                  
ADAMS AND JUNEAU COUNTIES. BEING ON THE NORTH EDGE OF THE SYSTEM                
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF AND WITH COBB DATA SHOWING                 
SNOW RATIOS AROUND 16 TO 1...WHICH LEADS TO ABOUT AN INCH OF                    
ACCUMULATION ACROSS SOUTHERN CLAYTON AND GRANT COUNTIES. WITH THE               
UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSING OFF TONIGHT...SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW MOVING                
AND HAVE ADDED IN SOME CHANCE POPS FOR THIS EVENING AS DOUBTFUL                 
THE SNOW WILL BE PUSH EAST OF THE AREA VERY FAST.                               
FLOW BECOMES ZONAL BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ALLOWING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE               
TROUGH TO CROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHER THAN SOME                 
WEAK FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 700 TO 500 MB LAYER...NOT MUCH FORCING                
OCCURS WITH THIS WAVE. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ON THE 280K               
ISENTROPIC SURFACE REMAIN AT 30 MB OR HIGHER SO DOUBTFUL THAT                   
SATURATION WILL OCCUR AND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR SUNDAY                 
NIGHT AND MONDAY.                                                               
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY                                         
THE ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE NEXT                 
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL COME ACROSS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME              
MODERATE QG CONVERGENCE IS SHOWN BY THE GFS IN THE 850-500 MB                   
LAYER BUT NO FRONTOGENESIS AND AGAIN CONDENSATION PRESSURE                      
DEFICITS ON THE 280K SURFACE REMAIN AT 30 MB OR HIGHER SO WILL                  
MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN                        
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A SYSTEM OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY             
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE GFS                
TRACK IS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN THE ECMWF SO FOR NOW WILL                  
MAINTAIN THE CHANCE POPS. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME                
ACCUMULATING SNOWS HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.                            
AVIATION...                                                                     
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK OUT OF TX TO ACROSS THE OH RIVER               
VALLEY TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NORTH FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE                
LOCAL AREA...MOSTLY IN THE 4-8 KFT RANGE. AREAS OF SNOW WILL ALSO               
SPREAD NORTH...BUT SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF KRST/KLSE. IF                           
ANYTHING...PERIODS OF FLURRIES WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL STAY               
LIGHT...SHIFTING FROM THE NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT. HIGH                  
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY...LEADING TO SOME CLEARING SKIES.             
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
SHORT/LONG TERM...04                                                            
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
450 AM EST MON DEC 17 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE LIGHT SNOW CHANCES TODAY THROUGH WED ALONG               
WITH FZDZ POTENTIAL TUE INTO EARLY WED.                                         
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG            
THE WEST COAST...A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES...AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER             
THE EAST HALF OF THE CONUS. A COMPACT SHORTWAVE/VORT WAS LOCATED                
OVER SRN MANITOBA WITH A DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE RIDGE INTO THE WRN                
GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES WAS LOCATED SE MANITOBA WITH A               
RIDGE FROM WRN ONTARIO INTO WI WHILE THE EAST COAST STORM (971 MB               
LOW) WAS LIFTING THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. TROUGHING ALSO                 
EXTENDED THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LEAVING NW FLOW THROUGH ERN              
LAKE SUPERIOR AND WEAK SW WINDS OVER THE WEST PORTION OF THE LAKE.              
850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -10C SUPPORTED WEAK MULTIPLE WIND PARALLEL               
LES BANDS ALIGNED WITH 310-320 CBL FLOW INTO THE ERN CWA THAT                   
CONTINUED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. UPSTREAM 2-4SM VSBY WITH LIGHT SNOW               
WAS REPORTED OVER SRN MANITOBA INTO WRN ONTARIO...MAINLY ALONG THE              
MID LEVEL VORT TRACK.                                                           
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE LES OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE CWA WILL END             
AS WINDS BACK WSW BY MID TO LATE MORNING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING               
LOW. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL SHOULD AMOUNT TO LESS THAN AN INCH. THE                
BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WITH THE MANITOBA SHORTWAVE WILL BE ALONG THE              
PATH OF THE MID LEVEL VORT WITH THE AREA OF MODERATE MID/UPPER LEVEL            
QVECTOR CONV AND STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL KEEP MOST             
OF THE SNOW NORTH FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING NORTH OF UPPER             
MI. ONLY CHANCE POPS INCLUDED VCNTY KCMX/KP59/KERY WITH SLIGHT                  
CHANCE TO THE SOUTH AND NO PCPN MENTIONED CLOSER TO THE WI BORDER.              
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT              
WITH THE POSITION/STRENGTH OF THE PAC NW TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO THE            
REGION. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE WELL-DEFINED LOOK OF THIS FEATURE FROM              
THE WV LOOP AND INITIALIZATION PROBLEMS WITH THE 00Z NAM/GFS NOTED              
BY HPC...THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER/DEEPER 00Z CANADIAN REG                          
GEM...SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF...WAS PREFERRED. AN INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL            
MOISTURE WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR AOB -10C MAY ALSO RESULT IN SOME               
PATCHY FZDZ ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.                
AGAIN THE MID LEVEL LOW TRACK WILL BRING BEST SNOW CHANCES MAINLY               
NORTH OF UPPER MI WITH THE POPS TAPERED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. EXPECT             
DEEP MOISTURE AOA -10C OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTH BY TUE                            
NIGHT...REDUCING CHANCES FOR FZDZ.                                              
WEDNESDAY...WITH FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MOISTURE RECEDING TO AROUND             
-8C...NRLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT                   
LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW OR             
FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI IN THE                          
MORNING...ESPECIALLY WHERE WINDS UPSLOPE INTO HIGHER TERRAIN.                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO LINGER ALL NGT AT CMX WITH BACKING LLVL FLOW FM             
NW TO SW ADVECTING LO CLD TO THE SW INTO THE CWA. EXPECT A PD OF VFR            
CONDITIONS AT SAW BEFORE SOME OF THIS LO CLD ARRIVES TOWARD SUNRISE.            
WENT MORE PESSIMISTIC AT BOTH SAW/CMX FOR TMRW WITH LARGE MASS OF LO            
CLD OVER WI PRESSING NEWD. OTRW...FCST TRACK OF INCOMING LO PRES NOW            
OVER SCNTRL CAN ACRS NRN LK SUP ON MON WITH ABSENCE OF SGNFT MSTR IN            
THE NRN PLAINS SUGS ANY PCPN ON MON WL BE ON THE LGT SIDE...                    
ESPECIALLY AT SAW. BUT EXPECTED VEERING LLVL FLOW TO MORE W AT CMX              
IN THE AFTN WL CAUSE LOWER CIG/VSBY/BETTER CHC OF PCPN THAN AT SAW.             
LLVL DOWNSLOPE WLY FLOW WL CAUSE SOME CLRG IN THE WAKE OF SHRTWV MON            
EVNG AT SAW.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.1 INCHES OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR             
WILL GIVE WAY TO A 29.9 INCH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM CENTRAL                   
MANITOBA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL EXIT TO THE EAST AND                
WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY. IT WILL BE REPLACED BY A SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW            
OF 29.8 INCHES FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA TUESDAY AFTERNOON... CROSSING             
UPPER MICHIGAN TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MAKING IT TO THE EASTERN GREAT               
LAKES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 30               
KNOTS WITH THESE TWO SYSTEMS...AND PROBABLY EVEN AT OR BELOW 25                 
KNOTS.                                                                          
HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.0 INCHES WILL THEN OVERTAKE THE AREA. A 29.7                
INCH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS                    
THURSDAY MORNING WILL MOVE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY.                
ALSO ON FRIDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OF 29.6 INCHES WILL BE             
SLIDING OUR WAY FROM NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA. WINDS LESS             
THAN 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOOKING MORE INTO               
THE FUTURE...IT LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST CHANCE OF GALES ON LAKE                    
SUPERIOR WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK             
AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW.                               
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...JLB                                                                
AVIATION...KC                                                                   
MARINE...KF                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                       
445 AM EST MON DEC 17 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A GALE CENTER MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL               
AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN                 
FROM THE GREAT LAKES.                                                           
A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL APPROACH THE STATE FROM MID TO               
LATE WEEK WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.                         
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE LAKE EFFECT                
BAND WITH LK HURON CONNECTION OVR THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS FROM SWRN              
CLEARFIELD CTY INTO SRN CENTRE. LINES UP NICELY UNDER A BAND OF                 
LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW THAT THE RUC13 ANALYSIS. THIS SLOWLY                   
LOSES IT`S CYCLONIC FEED OFF HURON AND BECOMES MORE WESTERLY OVER               
THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS. DECIDED TO KEEP THE SNOW ADVISORIES FOR THE                 
LAURELS AND NW COUNTIES THRU 12Z...THINKING IS THAT THE SNOW MIGHT              
STILL BE ONGOING BUT PROGGED SOUNDINGS AND RUC13 LOW LEVEL WINDS                
INDICATE THE EVENT WINDING DOWN.                                                
GUSTY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM WILL GRADUALLY RELAX TODAY AS              
THE HIGH BUILDS IN. WIND ADV EXPIRES AT MID DAY AND THAT TIMING                 
ALSO LOOKS REASONABLE.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...                         
OTHER THAN THE USUAL LINGERING CLOUDS AND SNOW FLURRIES/SHOWERS                 
OVER THE NW AND LAURELS...THE OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE                     
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL AND FAIR FOR A CHANGE. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY                   
INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO SPREAD                     
MOISTURE OUR WAY...BUT PRECIP SHUD HOLD OFF UNTIL TUES NITE/WED.                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                    
FLOW ALOFT GOES QUASI-ZONAL FROM MID-LATE WEEK WITH A SERIES OF                 
WEAK DISTURBANCES BEING MARCHED OUR WAY BY THE MODELS. THE FIRST                
BRINGS SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW WEDNESDAY. SECOND IN THE SERIES IS               
TAKEN MAINLY SOUTH OF HERE THURS WITH THE FLOW EVENTUALLY                       
AMPLIFYING FOR THE WEEKEND. THE PERIOD FROM WED ONWARD HAS SOME                 
SORT OF LIGHT PRECIP MENTIONED JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY...BUT THE                   
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP LOOKS LIKE THE WEEKEND AT               
THE EARLIEST.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
AN INTENSE STORM OFF THE COAST HAS RESULTED IN A VERY STRONG NW                 
FLOW OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE LAKES. VAD WINDS ARE FROM ABOUT 290 AT              
50 KNOTS AT 4000 FEET. ONE OF THE WORST BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT                    
SQUALLS I HAVE SEEN ON RADAR IN A LONG TIME EXTENDS OFF LAKE                    
HURON...SE ACROSS MUCH OF C PA. ONE CAN SEE THAT THIS BAND EXTENDS              
OFF THE NJ COAST. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN THIS BAND.                      
OTHERWISE...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES AT MOST SITES                       
OVERNIGHT BUT IPT AND MDT...WHERE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD.                   
PLACES LIKE BFD AND JST WILL ALSO BE IFR AT TIMES.                              
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY AFT...AS HEIGHTS RISE... AND                       
INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER...AND THE STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW WEAKENS.                 
CONDITIONS IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY IN ALL AREAS BY MONDAY NIGHT.                  
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WED...MAINLY                   
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE. THEN MORE ADVERSE FLYING             
WEATHER RETURNS FOR LATE THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A MORE ORGANIZED               
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY               
AND BRINGS RAIN OR SNOW TO THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE...WITH               
SNOW LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF PENNSYLVANIA.                           
&&                                                                              
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ004>006-                     
010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-                        
056>059-063>066.                                                                
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR                  
PAZ024-033.                                                                     
LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS                  
MORNING FOR PAZ004-005.                                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...LACORTE                                                              
NEAR TERM...LACORTE                                                             
SHORT TERM...LACORTE                                                            
LONG TERM...LACORTE                                                             
AVIATION...MARTIN/RXR                                                           
</pre> pa                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA                                             
1030 PM PST SUN DEC 16 2007                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
THE NEXT IN A SEEMINGLY ENDLESS SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL                  
MOVE INTO THE INLAND NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND EXIT THE REGION BY                   
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN                       
WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL                  
MOVE INTO THE REGION QUICKLY ON TUESDAY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF                    
UNSETTLED WEATHER.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
AS OF 06Z...THE ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH HAS MOVED ONSHORE OVER THE               
WASHINGTON AND OREGON COAST. THERE IS A DISTINCT CIRCULATION                    
ACCOMPANYING THE TROUGH OVER SOUTHWESTERN OREGON. COLD CUMULUS                  
DEVELOPMENT ON INFRARED IMAGERY MOVING ONSHORE IS AN INDICATION OF              
THE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEART OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE               
RUC ANALYZES A POCKET OF -30C AT 500MB THAT WILL PIVOT THROUGH                  
CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON BETWEEN 15Z AND 21Z. PRECIPITATION               
HAS DEVELOPED RAPIDLY OVER CENTRAL WASHINGTON BETWEEN 04-06Z IN                 
RESPONSE TO STRONG Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. THIS INITIAL SHOT OF                   
SYNOPTICALLY INDUCED PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSLATE NORTHEAST AND                 
SHIFT INTO NORTHWEST MONTANA BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z. EXPECT AN INCH                
OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION FROM OMAK THROUGH THE NORTHERN                      
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE SPOKANE/COUER D`ALENE AREAS BY SUNRISE WITH              
THIS SNOW-BAND. POST FRONTAL OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS WILL ADD TO                
THE SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF IDAHO AND FAR                       
NORTHEAST WASHINGTON THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE COLD AIR AT                
500MB WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A DEEP LAYER OF CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY                
WITH THE MOUNTAINS FAVORED FOR THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS               
ON MONDAY. FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE...IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOST                     
SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL BE WINDING DOWN IN THE SPOKANE AND COEUR                  
D`ALENE AREAS AS THE BEST DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE              
EAST OF THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME CONVECTIVE SNOW BURSTS                    
AROUND SUNRISE AS THE HEART OF THE COLD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO                 
FAR EASTERN WASHINGTON. OF THE SNOW ADVISORIES CURRENTLY IN                     
EFFECT...THE ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE OMAK AREA ARE THE MOST                       
QUESTIONABLE AT THIS POINT. WINDS AT 700MB WILL LIKELY BECOME                   
UNFAVORABLE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW BY 09Z AS THE TROUGH AXIS CRESTS              
THE CASCADES. THE SNOW ADVISORIES FOR THE OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS AND                
THE OKANONGAN VALLEY HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF BEING CANCELLED EARLY                
GIVEN THE LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. /GKOCH                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SNOW WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO 1500 FEET OR LESS IN              
THE SPOKANE...COUER D`ALENE...AND PULLMAN AREAS FROM 08Z TO AT                  
LEAST 15Z. POST FRONTAL MIXING SHOULD BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS                
TO EASTERN WASHINGTON AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF IDAHO AFTER 18Z.                 
THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CASCADES TO BRING                
AN END TO THE SNOW IN THE WENATCHEE AND MOSES LAKE AREAS BETWEEN                
08-10Z...BUT THE MIXING MAY NOT BE VIGOROUS ENOUGH TO MIX OUT                   
STRATUS UNTIL 16-18Z. /GKOCH                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
SPOKANE        28  32  25  35  29  34 /  80  60  40  90  60  60                 
COEUR D`ALENE  28  34  24  36  30  34 /  80  70  30 100  60  60                 
PULLMAN        30  33  28  39  31  37 /  40  40  40  80  50  50                 
LEWISTON       33  41  32  44  35  42 /  20  30  20  50  30  40                 
COLVILLE       26  34  23  35  28  34 /  90  70  20 100  50  70                 
SANDPOINT      29  34  22  35  30  33 /  80  70  40 100  80  60                 
KELLOGG        26  32  22  35  30  36 /  80  80  30 100  80  60                 
MOSES LAKE     27  33  27  37  29  36 /  50  20  60  90  10  60                 
WENATCHEE      27  32  27  33  28  31 /  40  20  60  90  10  70                 
OMAK           18  32  25  31  26  31 /  60  20  50 100  10  70                 
&&                                                                              
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ID...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR CENTRAL PANHANDLE                  
     MOUNTAINS.                                                                 
     SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR NORTHERN PANHANDLE.                
WA...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.               
     SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST MONDAY FOR OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS.               
     SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST MONDAY FOR OKANOGAN VALLEY.                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> wa                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
935 AM CST MON DEC 17 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...                                                          
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION                
WITH WARMER AIR SHOOTING OVER THE COLD...SNOWPACK ENHANCED SURFACE              
AIR. RUC/NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS ALL KEEP SFC TEMPS BELOW FREEZING                    
TODAY...SO HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO HEDGE A LITTLE LOWER ON MAX             
TEMP TODAY. ALSO CLEARED OUT THE FOG/STRATUS AND EXPECT US TO HAVE A            
FULL DAY OF SUNSHINE WITH MAYBE SOME CIRRUS SPREADING IN FROM THE               
WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON.                                                      
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
THE STRATUS AND FOG OVER THE CWA IS FINALLY CLEARING OUT AND TEMPS              
ARE BEGINNING TO FALL.  AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE              
SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD...THE FLOW WILL PREDOMINANTLY BECOME                   
SOUTHWESTERLY THEN SOUTHERLY.  WITH THE CURRENT SNOW PACK I FEEL                
THAT GUIDANCE IS TOO WARM...AS IT HAS BEEN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL                
DAYS.  THEREFORE...DESPITE BETTER SUNSHINE TODAY I KNOCKED  TEMPS               
BACK HALF A CATEGORY OR SO.  SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE SOME MONDAY               
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  THIS COMBINED WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT              
SHOULD ALLOW FOR BETTER WARMING BY MID WEEK.  A WEAK AND FAST MOVING            
DISTURBANCE SHOULD KEEP SOME CLOUD COVER OVER THE STATE FOR TUESDAY             
AND SMALL CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTHERN QUARTER OF THE CWA.  WEAK               
RIDGING THEN BUILDS BACK OVER CENTRAL IOWA TUESDAY NIGHT AND                    
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE MOVES IN WEDNESDAY               
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.  MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THIS BUT THEY SEEM            
TO HINT AT SPLITTING THE ENERGY IN THIS SHORTWAVE KEEPING THE BETTER            
PRECIP SOUTH OF THE STATE AND ONLY DRIBBLE SOME LIGHT QPF OVER US.              
OUT OF THE DAY 5 PERIOD...THE NEXT STORM TO AFFECT IOWA WILL BE                 
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY BUT TODAYS EUROPEAN WAS LOOKING LIKE                      
YESTERDAYS GFS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THAT FROM YESTERDAY.  ONE BIG              
DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS IS NOW KEEPING THE SHORTWAVE OPEN AND NOT            
PRODUCING A CLOSED LOW WITH THIS AND THE OTHER NOTEWORTHY ITEM IS               
THAT THE SURFACE LOW DOES NOT INTENSIFY UNTIL IT GETS EAST OF US.               
STILL LOTS OF VARIABLES BUT WE SHOULD SEE SOMETHING FOR SATURDAY.               
AS FOR TEMPS...STILL KEPT THEM BELOW GUIDANCE AS IT HAS NOT BEEN                
DOING WELL WITH TEMPS IN THE SNOW PACK.                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...17/12Z                                                              
FOG RECEDING OVR ERN IA AND SHOULD GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDS OVR ALL                
RTES BY MID MRNG.  NO WX THIS TAF PD WITH SW-SLY WIND FLOW INTO                 
TONIGHT.  OTHER THAN A CI LAYER MOVING IN AFT SNST TNGT, NO WX TO               
SPEAK OF.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...MOYER                                                              
LONG TERM...FAB                                                                 
AVIATION...MS DEC 07                                                            
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1102 AM EST MON DEC 17 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
VERY TRICKY FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR            
IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NW ONTARIO...WHICH MODELS                
PROG TO NOW MOVE EVEN FARTHER NORTH...ACROSS VERY FAR NORTHERN LAKE             
SUPERIOR OR IN ONTARIO. U.S. AND CANADIAN RADARS DEPICT ALL OF THE              
PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE MN/ONTARIO                      
BORDER...LIKELY DUE TO DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS DEPICTED ON THE 12Z            
INL AND GRB SOUNDINGS. THIS UPPER LOW IS REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE BY            
A 1009MB LOW NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF MANITOBA/ONTARIO AND MN...WITH            
A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SE THROUGH THE KEWEENAW AND INTO THE EASTERN             
U.P.. SOUTH OF THIS WARM FRONT...LOW CLOUDS...MIST AND LIGHT SNOW               
HAVE BEEN ADVECTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CWA FROM WI ON SW WINDS.             
HOWEVER...THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO MOVE INTO DOWNSLOPE AREAS...             
SUCH AS ONTONAGON...BARAGA AND MARQUETTE...WHICH COMBINED WITH THE              
12Z GRB SOUNDING SHOW THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE CLOUDS. THE RUC                 
MODELS HAVE HAD A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THESE LOW CLOUDS ON THEIR               
950MB RH FIELD...AND UPDATED THE CLOUD FORECAST FOR TODAY INTO                  
TONIGHT BASED ON THIS FIELD. BASICALLY...THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD                  
ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE U.P. BY 00Z TONIGHT...WITH DOWNSLOPE AREAS                
TAKING THE LONGEST TO SEE THE CLOUDS. IN ADDITION...ADDED SOME                  
FLURRIES SINCE SITES SUCH AS LNL...IMT AND EGV HAVE REPORTED                    
THEM...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THAT THE LOW CLOUD DECK IS WITHIN THE            
-10 TO -12C ZONE. DEBATED ABOUT ADDING SOME PATCHY FOG TOO...BUT                
WITH VISIBILITIES GENERALLY ABOVE 2 SM...FIGURE THINGS WILL BE OKAY.            
REGARDING SYNOPTIC PCPN CHANCES WITH THE UPPER LOW...HAVE SHIFTED               
THESE NORTH OF UPPER MI TODAY GIVEN THE FARTHER NORTH TRACK.                    
HOWEVER...AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVES IN            
TONIGHT...IT COULD END UP PICKING UP SOME LAKE MOISTURE AND                     
GENERATING LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS...SINCE LAPSE RATES FROM THE LAKE               
SURFACE TO 900MB ARE PROGGED TO BECOME MORE THAN MOIST ADIABATIC.               
THIS PCPN WOULD MOVE INTO THE KEWEENAW THIS EVENING AND REMAIN                  
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE NIGHT. PCPN TYPE IS OF CONCERN AS THE             
TOP OF THE INVERSION MAY ONLY REACH -8C AT BEST. THUS...HAVE DECIDED            
TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF FZDZ FOR THE KEWEENAW TOO.                              
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE LIGHT SNOW CHANCES TODAY THROUGH WED ALONG               
WITH FZDZ POTENTIAL TUE INTO EARLY WED.                                         
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG            
THE WEST COAST...A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES...AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER             
THE EAST HALF OF THE CONUS. A COMPACT SHORTWAVE/VORT WAS LOCATED                
OVER SRN MANITOBA WITH A DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE RIDGE INTO THE WRN                
GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES WAS LOCATED SE MANITOBA WITH A               
RIDGE FROM WRN ONTARIO INTO WI WHILE THE EAST COAST STORM (971 MB               
LOW) WAS LIFTING THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. TROUGHING ALSO                 
EXTENDED THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LEAVING NW FLOW THROUGH ERN              
LAKE SUPERIOR AND WEAK SW WINDS OVER THE WEST PORTION OF THE LAKE.              
850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -10C SUPPORTED WEAK MULTIPLE WIND PARALLEL               
LES BANDS ALIGNED WITH 310-320 CBL FLOW INTO THE ERN CWA THAT                   
CONTINUED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. UPSTREAM 2-4SM VSBY WITH LIGHT SNOW               
WAS REPORTED OVER SRN MANITOBA INTO WRN ONTARIO...MAINLY ALONG THE              
MID LEVEL VORT TRACK.                                                           
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE LES OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE CWA WILL END             
AS WINDS BACK WSW BY MID TO LATE MORNING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING               
LOW. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL SHOULD AMOUNT TO LESS THAN AN INCH. THE                
BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WITH THE MANITOBA SHORTWAVE WILL BE ALONG THE              
PATH OF THE MID LEVEL VORT WITH THE AREA OF MODERATE MID/UPPER LEVEL            
QVECTOR CONV AND STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL KEEP MOST             
OF THE SNOW NORTH FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING NORTH OF UPPER             
MI. ONLY CHANCE POPS INCLUDED VCNTY KCMX/KP59/KERY WITH SLIGHT                  
CHANCE TO THE SOUTH AND NO PCPN MENTIONED CLOSER TO THE WI BORDER.              
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT              
WITH THE POSITION/STRENGTH OF THE PAC NW TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO THE            
REGION. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE WELL-DEFINED LOOK OF THIS FEATURE FROM              
THE WV LOOP AND INITIALIZATION PROBLEMS WITH THE 00Z NAM/GFS NOTED              
BY HPC...THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER/DEEPER 00Z CANADIAN REG                          
GEM...SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF...WAS PREFERRED. AN INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL            
MOISTURE WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR AOB -10C MAY ALSO RESULT IN SOME               
PATCHY FZDZ ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.                
AGAIN THE MID LEVEL LOW TRACK WILL BRING BEST SNOW CHANCES MAINLY               
NORTH OF UPPER MI WITH THE POPS TAPERED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. EXPECT             
DEEP MOISTURE AOA -10C OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTH BY TUE                            
NIGHT...REDUCING CHANCES FOR FZDZ.                                              
WEDNESDAY...WITH FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MOISTURE RECEDING TO AROUND             
-8C...NRLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT                   
LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW OR             
FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI IN THE                          
MORNING...ESPECIALLY WHERE WINDS UPSLOPE INTO HIGHER TERRAIN.                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
OCCASIONAL FLURRIES SEEM TO BE AFFECTING THE SAW SITE...ON THE                  
SOUTHERN EDGE OF A BLAND OF CLOUDS THAT STRETCHES NORTHEASTERLY                 
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE ARROWHEAD REGION OF MN.  BEST CHANCE OF             
SNOW WILL REMAIN AT CMX...REMAINING IFR TO LOW MVFR THROUGH THE                 
PERIOD...GIVEN FAVORABLE WINDS AND APPROACHING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE               
EVIDENT ON THE IR SAT IMG.  CONTINUE TO HAVE LOW CLOUDS OVER N WI               
SLOWLY SLIDING NORTHEASTWARD...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD            
OF THE CWA.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.1 INCHES OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR             
WILL GIVE WAY TO A 29.9 INCH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM CENTRAL                   
MANITOBA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL EXIT TO THE EAST AND                
WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY. IT WILL BE REPLACED BY A SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW            
OF 29.8 INCHES FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA TUESDAY AFTERNOON... CROSSING             
UPPER MICHIGAN TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MAKING IT TO THE EASTERN GREAT               
LAKES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 30               
KNOTS WITH THESE TWO SYSTEMS...AND PROBABLY EVEN AT OR BELOW 25                 
KNOTS.                                                                          
HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.0 INCHES WILL THEN OVERTAKE THE AREA. A 29.7                
INCH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS                    
THURSDAY MORNING WILL MOVE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY.                
ALSO ON FRIDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OF 29.6 INCHES WILL BE             
SLIDING OUR WAY FROM NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA. WINDS LESS             
THAN 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOOKING MORE INTO               
THE FUTURE...IT LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST CHANCE OF GALES ON LAKE                    
SUPERIOR WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK             
AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW.                               
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...AJ                                                                     
DISCUSSION...JLB                                                                
AVIATION...KF                                                                   
MARINE...KF                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1030 AM EST MON DEC 17 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...RUC/SURFACE/SATELLITE/SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING                   
REVEALS SHORTWAVE RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES                
REGION. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA...SFC WINDS                
HAVE BEEN BACKING AROUND TO THE WEST THIS MORNING...EVENTUALLY                  
ENDING UP AT SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WARM FRONT IS NOT VERY             
EVIDENT WITH REGARDS TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...LOOKING AT              
WINDS AND LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT...APPEARS THE MAIN WARM FRONT                   
BOUNDARY IS LOCATED FROM CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN...SOUTHWARD THROUGH             
THE LONG AXIS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN.               
CEILINGS AROUND KFKS AND KMBL ARE BEGINNING TO FALL TO AROUND 2KFT              
SUGGESTING THE FRONT IS STARTING TO PUSH ONSHORE INTO NORTHERN LOWER            
MICHIGAN. ALSO EVIDENT IS THE DWINDLING OVER LAKE INSTABILITY. RADAR            
REFLECTIVITIES HAVE SHOWN A DECREASING TREND OVER THE PAST FEW                  
HOURS. LATEST 850MB RUC TEMPERATURE ANALYSIS REVEALS -4C 850MB AIR              
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE SURFACE WARM FRONT IN EASTERN WISCONSIN. WITH            
LAKE MICHIGAN TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY RUNNING AROUND +7C...DELTA TS              
WILL FALL TO LESS THAN THE IDEAL 13C BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE             
WARMER AIR UPSTREAM ADVECTS INTO THE AREA. THUS...THE ONGOING                   
DIMINISHING TREND TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE                 
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.                       
THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW A 900MB               
INVERSION AS SHOWN BY LOW CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS WISCONSIN.                      
THUS...WOULD EXPECT THIS LOW CLOUD COVERAGE TO EXPAND EAST AND NORTH            
TODAY...OVERTAKING MOST OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.            
THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SHALLOW ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY DRIZZLE OR               
FLURRIES FROM DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.                                        
NO CHANGES PLANNED TO SFC TEMPERATURES...AS INCREASING CLOUDS WILL              
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING OUT OF THE UPPER 20S THIS                   
AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN                        
SHORELINE...WHERE ONSHORE WINDS WITH THE HELP OF STILL SOMEWHAT WARM            
LAKE WATERS WILL ALLOW LOCATIONS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 30S.                   
KAS                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION... /ISSUED 642 AM EST MON DEC 17 2007/                                
PREVAILING VFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO TONIGHT (BUT JUST            
ABOVE MVFR). TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PLN AND              
TVC IN LAKE INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS ARE                    
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AT PLN AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE                     
(CLIPPER) MOVES BY. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH            
THE TAF PERIOD.                                                                 
AJS                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM EST MON DEC 17 2007/                         
ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...973 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER                
UPSTATE MAINE...1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER EAST TEXAS AND 1008 MB               
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA. APX RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW A            
BROAD AREA OF NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT MOVING OFF OF LAKES                    
SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THIS                  
ACTIVITY IS ON THE LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SIDE (LOWEST VSBYS            
OF 1 1/2 TO 3 MILES). THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE             
AROUND THE TIMING OF THE ENDING OF LAKE EFFECT TODAY...THEN POPS                
WITH WARM ADVECTION/CLIPPER SYSTEM LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. OTHER              
CONCERNS INCLUDE POPS THIS EVENING AND POPS AND POTENTIAL FOR                   
FREEZING DRIZZLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY.                              
TODAY...DESPITE INCREASING RIDGING/ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ALONG                
WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN (MODELS LOWER MEAN 900-700 MB RH TO ABOUT              
40 PERCENT AT 12Z)...THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE CONTINUES TO CHURN ON              
AS IS THE CASE MORE TIMES THAN NOT. THEREFORE WILL LINGER POPS OVER             
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AS WARMER TEMPERATURES ADVECT IN ALOFT (850             
MB TEMPS INCREASE FROM BETWEEN -10 AND -12 AT 12Z TO -6 AND -9 AT               
18Z TO -2 AND -6 AT 00Z)...OVER LAKE INSTABILITY WILL SLOWLY                    
DECREASE WHICH SHOULD END LAKE EFFECT SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON. SO               
WILL CONTINUE WITH NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAVORED AREAS THIS              
MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR               
TWO. THE FLOW BACKS FROM NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING INTO THE WEST             
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL ORIENTATE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS             
AS WELL. IN ADDITION...WARM ADVECTION/A BIT OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT                
(I280) IN COMBINATION WITH A WEAK CLIPPER MOVING ACROSS SOUTH                   
CENTRAL CANADA WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO EASTERN UPPER               
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.                   
TONIGHT...CLIPPER CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN CANADA                  
GRAZING EASTERN UPPER THIS EVENING LEADING TO A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW            
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ZONES. MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE IS A WEAK AREA            
OF DIV-Q AND A MARGINAL AMOUNT OF MOISTURE (MEAN 1000-500 MB RH 60              
TO 70 PERCENT) ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...OVER LAKE               
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO WANE AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES SETTLE IN              
BETWEEN -2 AND -4 C. LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.                      
TUESDAY...NOT A LOT GOING ON TO START THE DAY AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE             
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER CLIPPER ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED                 
SURFACE WARM FRONT THEN APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE               
DAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR EVEN SOME FREEZING            
DRIZZLE (MODEL CROSS SECTIONS/SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ONLY            
UP TO ABOUT -8C) ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ZONES. MILDER WITH HIGHS IN THE            
LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S.                                                           
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...CLIPPER TAKES ITS TIME MOVING ACROSS             
THE REGION. MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO REMAIN SHALLOW IN THE EVENING                  
LEADING TO A CONTINUED CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE THEN DEEP ENOUGH              
AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.                
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S WITH HIGHS ON                    
WEDNESDAY RANGING FROM AROUND 30 TO THE MIDDLE 30S.                             
THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE            
MOVES BY TO OUR SOUTH. WILL ADD IN LOW CHANCE POPS INTO FAR SOUTHERN            
ZONES TO LINE UP WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND               
MIDDLE 30S.                                                                     
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. POTENTIAL MESS                
NEXT WEEKEND THOUGH AS THE EXTENDED MODELS BRING A DEEP AREA OF LOW             
PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES (WITH POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION            
TYPE ISSUES).                                                                   
SULLIVAN                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
610 AM EST MON DEC 17 2007                                                      
UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS                                                            
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE LIGHT SNOW CHANCES TODAY THROUGH WED ALONG               
WITH FZDZ POTENTIAL TUE INTO EARLY WED.                                         
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG            
THE WEST COAST...A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES...AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER             
THE EAST HALF OF THE CONUS. A COMPACT SHORTWAVE/VORT WAS LOCATED                
OVER SRN MANITOBA WITH A DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE RIDGE INTO THE WRN                
GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES WAS LOCATED SE MANITOBA WITH A               
RIDGE FROM WRN ONTARIO INTO WI WHILE THE EAST COAST STORM (971 MB               
LOW) WAS LIFTING THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. TROUGHING ALSO                 
EXTENDED THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LEAVING NW FLOW THROUGH ERN              
LAKE SUPERIOR AND WEAK SW WINDS OVER THE WEST PORTION OF THE LAKE.              
850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -10C SUPPORTED WEAK MULTIPLE WIND PARALLEL               
LES BANDS ALIGNED WITH 310-320 CBL FLOW INTO THE ERN CWA THAT                   
CONTINUED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. UPSTREAM 2-4SM VSBY WITH LIGHT SNOW               
WAS REPORTED OVER SRN MANITOBA INTO WRN ONTARIO...MAINLY ALONG THE              
MID LEVEL VORT TRACK.                                                           
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE LES OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE CWA WILL END             
AS WINDS BACK WSW BY MID TO LATE MORNING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING               
LOW. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL SHOULD AMOUNT TO LESS THAN AN INCH. THE                
BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WITH THE MANITOBA SHORTWAVE WILL BE ALONG THE              
PATH OF THE MID LEVEL VORT WITH THE AREA OF MODERATE MID/UPPER LEVEL            
QVECTOR CONV AND STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL KEEP MOST             
OF THE SNOW NORTH FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING NORTH OF UPPER             
MI. ONLY CHANCE POPS INCLUDED VCNTY KCMX/KP59/KERY WITH SLIGHT                  
CHANCE TO THE SOUTH AND NO PCPN MENTIONED CLOSER TO THE WI BORDER.              
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT              
WITH THE POSITION/STRENGTH OF THE PAC NW TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO THE            
REGION. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE WELL-DEFINED LOOK OF THIS FEATURE FROM              
THE WV LOOP AND INITIALIZATION PROBLEMS WITH THE 00Z NAM/GFS NOTED              
BY HPC...THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER/DEEPER 00Z CANADIAN REG                          
GEM...SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF...WAS PREFERRED. AN INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL            
MOISTURE WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR AOB -10C MAY ALSO RESULT IN SOME               
PATCHY FZDZ ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.                
AGAIN THE MID LEVEL LOW TRACK WILL BRING BEST SNOW CHANCES MAINLY               
NORTH OF UPPER MI WITH THE POPS TAPERED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. EXPECT             
DEEP MOISTURE AOA -10C OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTH BY TUE                            
NIGHT...REDUCING CHANCES FOR FZDZ.                                              
WEDNESDAY...WITH FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MOISTURE RECEDING TO AROUND             
-8C...NRLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT                   
LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW OR             
FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI IN THE                          
MORNING...ESPECIALLY WHERE WINDS UPSLOPE INTO HIGHER TERRAIN.                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
OCCASIONAL FLURRIES SEEM TO BE AFFECTING THE SAW SITE...ON THE                  
SOUTHERN EDGE OF A BLAND OF CLOUDS THAT STRETCHES NORTHEASTERLY                 
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE ARROWHEAD REGION OF MN.  BEST CHANCE OF             
SNOW WILL REMAIN AT CMX...REMAINING IFR TO LOW MVFR THROUGH THE                 
PERIOD...GIVEN FAVORABLE WINDS AND APPROACHING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE               
EVIDENT ON THE IR SAT IMG.  CONTINUE TO HAVE LOW CLOUDS OVER N WI               
SLOWLY SLIDING NORTHEASTWARD...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD            
OF THE CWA.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.1 INCHES OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR             
WILL GIVE WAY TO A 29.9 INCH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM CENTRAL                   
MANITOBA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL EXIT TO THE EAST AND                
WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY. IT WILL BE REPLACED BY A SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW            
OF 29.8 INCHES FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA TUESDAY AFTERNOON... CROSSING             
UPPER MICHIGAN TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MAKING IT TO THE EASTERN GREAT               
LAKES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 30               
KNOTS WITH THESE TWO SYSTEMS...AND PROBABLY EVEN AT OR BELOW 25                 
KNOTS.                                                                          
HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.0 INCHES WILL THEN OVERTAKE THE AREA. A 29.7                
INCH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS                    
THURSDAY MORNING WILL MOVE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY.                
ALSO ON FRIDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OF 29.6 INCHES WILL BE             
SLIDING OUR WAY FROM NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA. WINDS LESS             
THAN 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOOKING MORE INTO               
THE FUTURE...IT LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST CHANCE OF GALES ON LAKE                    
SUPERIOR WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK             
AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW.                               
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...JLB                                                                
AVIATION...KF                                                                   
MARINE...KF                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
1015 AM CDT MON DEC 17 2007                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
VALLEY LOCATION TEMPERATURES STILL TRYING TO RECOVER THIS MORNING...            
BUT EXPECT NEAR SURFACE LAYER TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE WELL MIXED AND            
EVEN OUT TEMPS SOME TOWARD MIDDAY. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE              
OF THE DAY. 12Z RUC SFC TEMPS REMAIN QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN GOING              
FORECAST...ABOUT 10 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS. HOWEVER...RUC TEMPS ARE              
ALSO COOLER ONLY 3 HOURS IN AT THE 15Z FORECAST...AND 925MB TEMPS               
FROM BOTH NAM AND RUC STILL FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO 3-5C RANGE BY                
LATE AFTERNOON...SO WILL NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS              
JUST YET.                                                                       
WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON VALLEY TEMPS THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND            
MAY HAVE TO UPDATE TOWARD MIDDAY IF WE ARE STILL STRUGGLING AS MUCH             
AS WE HAVE BEEN EARLY. ONE NOTE ABOUT AREA TEMPS...KHON TEMPERATURE             
SENSOR APPEARS TO BE REPORTING INCORRECT DATA THIS MORNING AND A                
TECHNICIAN IN ON THE WAY OUT THERE TO CHECK IT OUT.                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 08Z TUESDAY. WITH POSSIBILITY OF A LITTLE                
MELTING SNOW ADDING MOISTURE TO BOUNDARY LAYER...POTENTIAL FOR SOME             
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY            
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER. ANY FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WOULD MAINLY               
AFFECT KFSD TAF SITE...AND MOST LIKELY REMAIN EAST OF KHON/KSUX.                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
QUITE DIFFERENT EARLY THIS MORNING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY MORNING.               
ADMITTEDLY WE WERE WORRIED ABOUT ANOTHER POSSIBLE FOG SETUP OVR THE             
ERN FA EARLY TODAY...AT LEAST IN LOWER AREAS...BUT LOW LVL DRY AIR              
HAS INFILTRATED THE AREA AND THE SOUP HAS PUSHED OFF TO THE NRN MS              
VALLEY. S/W RIDGING DOMINATES THIS AREA TODAY...WITH LOW LVL WAA                
PUSHING FM SW TO NE. PRETTY DECENT BLOB OF ISENTROPIC LIFT COINCIDES            
THE WAA AREA...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS SO VERY DRY THAT ZERO POPS ARE             
WARRANTED.                                                                      
FOR TONIGHT...QUICK MOVG S/W PASSES THRU THIS AREA IN THE ZONAL FLOW            
ALOFT. ALONG THE WIND SHIFT...THE GFS H925 RH FIELD IS STILL                    
DENOTING A LOT OF MOISTURE...THICKENING UP AS TONIGHT PROGRESSES                
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR ERN HALF OVR THE SNOWPACK. MAINLY FM ERN                     
KINGSBURY CO TO NEAR ERN WOODBURY CO. THIS POTENTIAL STRATUS THEN               
LINGERS IN THESE AREAS TUE MORNING. HASHED OVR FOG POTENTIAL RIGHT              
NOW...BUT FORGOED FOR NOW. BUT DAYSHIFT MAY HAVE TO PUT IN AREAS OF             
FOG TONIGHT IF THE GFS H925 RH FIELD IS STILL HIGH. WHAT IS ALSO                
BOTHERSOME...IS NOW THE NAM RH TIME SECTIONS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW              
HINTS OF THIS STRATUS JUST ABOVE 950MB...LARGELY IN THE SAME AREA.              
BECAUSE OF THIS STRATUS POTENTIAL...KEPT LOWS IN SW MN RELATIVELY               
MILD. ALTHOUGH THEIR HIGHER TERRAIN HAS ALSO BEEN HELPING TO KEEP               
THEM MORE MILD RECENTLY AT NIGHT.                                               
THE NEXT STRONGER WAVE TO WATCH...WHICH IS HANDLED PRETTY SIMILARLY             
BY THE VARIOUS MODELS IS WED AND WED NIGHT. MOISTURE PROFILE BECOMES            
FAIRLY SATURATED ABOVE H85 FM SW TO NE OVR THIS FA ON WED. BOTH THE             
NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS TO THE SOUTH OF             
THIS FA. BUT NOW...EVEN THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THESE RUNS HAS              
SHOVED FURTHER SOUTH ALSO. STILL...BROAD ASCENT DOES EXIST ALONG                
WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT AND STRONG MID AND UPPER -DIV Q. DECIDED              
TO ADD A BIT OF SLEET IN OUR FA WED AFTN. THIS IS BECAUSE THE LOW               
LYRS ARE STILL RELATIVELY DRY...AND THE THERMAL FIELD NEAR H85 EEKS             
UP TO AT OR JUST ABOVE ZERO C. WITH THE FCST WET BULB TEMPS NEAR                
30...DOUBT THERE IS MUCH OF A -FZRA CHC LOOKING AT THE AMOUNT OF DRY            
AIR FM H85 ON DOWN. MOISTURE DOES SATURATE OVR OUR ERN HALF THOUGH              
SAT NIGHT. AND ONCE IT DOES SATURATE...THE WARM LYR OFF THE SFC                 
COOLS OFF ENOUGH TO WARRANT JUST A SNOW CHC. COULD BE A MIX HERE AND            
THERE WED EVENING...BUT ATTM...NOT ENOUGH OF A CHC TO WARRANT                   
PUTTING IN THE GRIDS.                                                           
FOR TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD...JUST CONTINUED THE TREND OF GOING AN AVG            
OF 5 TO 10 DEGS BLO THE MET FOR HIGHS. MANY OF THE MAX AND MIN                  
READINGS ARE SO ELEVATION DEPENDENT. OF COURSE WENT MUCH WARMER IN              
OUR SW QUAD WHERE A TAD BIT OF MIXING MAY OCCUR DURING DAYTIME...               
GIVING READINGS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE MAV. AND IN SW MN...                 
HIGHER TERRAIN WL ALSO MODERATE THE TEMPS SOME...ESP AT NIGHT...                
WITH THE ABSENCE OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS THRU MID WEEK. BUT                        
ELSEWHERE...SNOW FIELD WHICH HAS GLACIERIZED MANY LOCATIONS WILL                
GREATLY INHIBIT WARMING...AND OBVIOUSLY ENHANCE THE COOLING AT                  
NIGHT. THEREFORE WENT A FEW DEGS BLO THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE IN                 
THOSE LOCATIONS...ESP IN OUR LOWER SITES. SLY FLOW ON MON AND WED               
WILL BE COMING OFF SNOWPACK FM ERN NEB AND FAR WRN IA NOT HELPING               
MATTERS ANY. ON TUE...THE WIND WILL BE FM THE W TO NW. HOWEVER THE              
SFC WINDS WL ONCE AGAIN BE RELATIVELY LIGHT INHIBITING MIXING                   
COUPLED WITH SUBTLE CAA.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
 JH                                                                             
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
230 PM EST MON DEC 17 2007                                                      
...FREEZE IN STORE FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH HARD FREEZE                        
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...                                  
.SHORT TERM...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED                  
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH RIDGE ACROSS THE INTERSTATE              
10 CORRIDOR OF FLORIDA. THIS RESULTED IN A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW              
REGIME LAST NIGHT WHICH HAS QUICKLY TRANSITIONED TO A NORTH-                    
NORTHEAST REGIME THIS MORNING OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA. AS A                      
RESULT...COLD AIR ADVECTION CU WHICH HAD BEEN POISED JUST OFFSHORE              
IS BEGINNING TO ADVECT IN...GENERALLY SOUTH OF DUVAL COUNTY.                    
ALOFT...LATEST RUC SHOWS EAST COAST MID LEVEL TROUGH REALLY                     
SHALLOWS OUT AS YOU GET CLOSER TO OUR AREA WITH LARGELY ZONAL FLOW              
DEPICTED. THIS EXTENDS UP TO 250MB WHERE A WELL DEFINED JET STREAK              
EXTENDS WESTWARD THOUGH TEXAS AND EVENTUALLY BAJA AND MAY LEAD TO               
AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT.                                 
MAIN SHORT TERM ISSUE WILL BE THE LOW TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND                     
CERTAINLY NOT A CLEAR CUT CASE. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN IN GOOD                 
AGREEMENT FOR THIS EVENT WITH ABOVE AVERAGE RUN TO RUN                          
CONSISTENCY...ADVERTISING UPPER 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH                     
ISOLATED POCKETS OF HARD FREEZE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. UNCERTAINTIES              
WITH THIS EVENT RELATE TO DEVELOPING EASTERLY COMPONENT UP TO                   
850 MB AND ANY RESULTANT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THIS AND THE                     
WESTWARD EXTENT OF THESE CLOUDS.                                                
IN ADDITION...AFOREMENTIONED CIRRUS WILL INCREASE JUST PRIOR TO                 
12Z WHICH MAY INHIBIT LATE TEMPERATURE FALLS. FOR NOW...BELIEVE                 
AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 WILL BE LARGELY UNAFFECTED BY THE                   
EASTERLY FLOW WITH A DRAINAGE FLOW DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT.                   
CIRRUS MAY HAVE SOME EFFECTS BUT WILL BE LIMITED. THIS LEAVES ME                
LEANING TOWARD THE GUIDANCE FOR INLAND AREAS AND CURRENT FREEZE                 
WARNING LOOKS ON TRACK. SOME OF THE COLDER LOCATIONS INCLUDING                  
SOME CO-OP SITES WILL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF HARD FREEZE                        
CONDITIONS AS WELL AND WILL USE ENHANCED WORDING IN THE NPW.                    
FOR TUE...HIGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH EASTERLY FLOW FOR               
THE ENTIRE AREA ALLOWING FOR AIRMASS MODERATION. MODELS IN GOOD                 
AGREEMENT WITH A SHORTWAVE DIVING DOWN TUESDAY THROUGH THE DEEP                 
SOUTH AND INITIATING AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS              
WILL LEAD TO A FURTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF                
SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST. AS SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH...TROUGH                   
SHIFTS EAST AND AREA BEGINS ANOTHER CLEARING TREND.                             
NEXT SYSTEM ON TAP FOR THU WITH NAM12 AND GFS SHOWING SIGNIFICANT               
DIFFERENCES. GFS KEEPS TO DISTINCT BRANCHES OF MID LEVEL JET WHILE              
NAM12 SHOWS A MORE UNIFORM CENTRAL STATES TROUGH. SURFACE LOW IS                
THEREFORE MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WITH GFS DEPICTION THAN THE NAM12                  
BUT PRECIP FIELDS ARE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR. WILL USE A BLEND FOR NOW                
WHICH RESULTS IN MID RANGE POPS BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED               
WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.                                                      
.LONG TERM...LOOKS LIKE DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH              
GFS ADVERTISES FOR SUN EVENING. PARENT LOW IS WELL TO THE NORTH WITH            
THIS SYSTEM WITH JUST A TRAILING COLD FRONT IN STORE FOR OUR AREA.              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. HIGH                  
CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN FROM THE W THROUGH TUE. MODELS SUGGEST                    
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS BY EARLY                 
MORNING WITH STRATOCU ADVECTING INLAND AFTER ABOUT 06Z. HAVE                    
INDICATED MVFR CIGS AROUND 3 KFT FOR JAX...CRG AND SSI BY ABOUT                 
13Z. MVFR CIGS COULD OCCUR SOONER BASED ON NAM MOISTURE FIELDS BUT              
AT THIS TIME NOT VERY CONFIDENT IN THAT SCENARIO.                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...SEAS LIKELY UP IN THE 6-7 FT RANGE OFFSHORE SO WILL                   
MAINTAIN THE SCA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WEAKER FLOW WILL TAKE SHAPE            
TUE AND WED AS INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.                
GFS INDICATES 1012 MB LOW CROSSING OVER THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO               
FRIDAY BUT TENDED TO DOWNPLAY THIS PROG BASED ON COMPARISON FROM                
ECMWF AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING WILL MOSTLY LIKELY VERIFY OVER THE             
FL ZONES BUT IS QUESTIONABLE OVER SE GA ZONES. A FEW SPOTS MAY                  
VERIFY IN SE GA SO MAY LET THE WARNING RIDE. HIGHER RH VALUES                   
EXPECTED FOR TUE SO THIS TIME NO FIRE WEATHER WATCH/WARNINGS ARE                
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
AMG  26  58  35  66 /   0   0  10   0                                           
SSI  37  58  45  64 /   0  10  20   0                                           
JAX  29  60  42  68 /   0   0  20   0                                           
SGJ  38  62  47  68 /   0  10  20  10                                           
GNV  27  65  42  71 /   0   0  10   0                                           
OCF  30  66  44  72 /   0   0  10   0                                           
&&                                                                              
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR             
     ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-COLUMBIA-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-                 
     SUWANNEE-UNION.                                                            
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CLAY-DUVAL-               
     NASSAU-PUTNAM.                                                             
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                         
ALACHUA-BAKER-                                                                  
BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-                         
NASSAU-PUTNAM-SUWANNEE-UNION.                                                   
GA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR APPLING-                
     ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COFFEE-ECHOLS-JEFF                 
     DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.                                                   
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR             
     APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COFFEE-                    
     ECHOLS-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.                                       
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EST TUESDAY FOR INLAND CAMDEN-            
     INLAND GLYNN.                                                              
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ST                    
     AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.                     
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALTAMAHA            
     SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-                   
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DEESE/SHASHY/WALKER                                                             
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
1117 AM CST MON DEC 17 2007                                                     
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION                                                     
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...                                                          
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION                
WITH WARMER AIR SHOOTING OVER THE COLD...SNOWPACK ENHANCED SURFACE              
AIR. RUC/NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS ALL KEEP SFC TEMPS BELOW FREEZING                    
TODAY...SO HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO HEDGE A LITTLE LOWER ON MAX             
TEMP TODAY. ALSO CLEARED OUT THE FOG/STRATUS AND EXPECT US TO HAVE A            
FULL DAY OF SUNSHINE WITH MAYBE SOME CIRRUS SPREADING IN FROM THE               
WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON.                                                      
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
THE STRATUS AND FOG OVER THE CWA IS FINALLY CLEARING OUT AND TEMPS              
ARE BEGINNING TO FALL.  AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE              
SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD...THE FLOW WILL PREDOMINANTLY BECOME                   
SOUTHWESTERLY THEN SOUTHERLY.  WITH THE CURRENT SNOW PACK I FEEL                
THAT GUIDANCE IS TOO WARM...AS IT HAS BEEN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL                
DAYS.  THEREFORE...DESPITE BETTER SUNSHINE TODAY I KNOCKED  TEMPS               
BACK HALF A CATEGORY OR SO.  SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE SOME MONDAY               
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  THIS COMBINED WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT              
SHOULD ALLOW FOR BETTER WARMING BY MID WEEK.  A WEAK AND FAST MOVING            
DISTURBANCE SHOULD KEEP SOME CLOUD COVER OVER THE STATE FOR TUESDAY             
AND SMALL CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTHERN QUARTER OF THE CWA.  WEAK               
RIDGING THEN BUILDS BACK OVER CENTRAL IOWA TUESDAY NIGHT AND                    
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE MOVES IN WEDNESDAY               
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.  MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THIS BUT THEY SEEM            
TO HINT AT SPLITTING THE ENERGY IN THIS SHORTWAVE KEEPING THE BETTER            
PRECIP SOUTH OF THE STATE AND ONLY DRIBBLE SOME LIGHT QPF OVER US.              
OUT OF THE DAY 5 PERIOD...THE NEXT STORM TO AFFECT IOWA WILL BE                 
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY BUT TODAYS EUROPEAN WAS LOOKING LIKE                      
YESTERDAYS GFS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THAT FROM YESTERDAY.  ONE BIG              
DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS IS NOW KEEPING THE SHORTWAVE OPEN AND NOT            
PRODUCING A CLOSED LOW WITH THIS AND THE OTHER NOTEWORTHY ITEM IS               
THAT THE SURFACE LOW DOES NOT INTENSIFY UNTIL IT GETS EAST OF US.               
STILL LOTS OF VARIABLES BUT WE SHOULD SEE SOMETHING FOR SATURDAY.               
AS FOR TEMPS...STILL KEPT THEM BELOW GUIDANCE AS IT HAS NOT BEEN                
DOING WELL WITH TEMPS IN THE SNOW PACK.                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...17/18Z                                                              
MVFR VSBY SLOW TO ERODE...BUT SHOULD DURING THE 18-20Z TIME FRAME.              
WILL THEN HAVE LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.                        
HOWEVER...BY MORNING WITH SFC LOW CROSSING NRN IA/SRN MN...ENOUGH               
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AROUND TO BRING MVFR VSBY TO MANY                
LOCATIONS...WITH MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY AT KMCW.                                  
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...MOYER                                                              
LONG TERM...FAB                                                                 
AVIATION...MOYER                                                                
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
354 PM EST MON DEC 17 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
20Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWS NEARLY                 
ZONAL FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC ACROSS THE U.S....WITH SOME WEAK RIDGING            
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW...THERE ARE A FEW                
FEATURES TO NOTE: AN UPPER LOW JUST SOUTH OF PICKLE LAKE ONTARIO AND            
A SHRTWV TROUGH OVER IDAHO. THE UPPER LOW CAN BE SEEN WELL ON                   
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH A TWIST IN THE LOW CLOUDS OVER NW              
ONTARIO. OTHER LOW CLOUDS WERE PRESENT FROM LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THE              
EASTERN U.P. AND BETWEEN PARK FALLS AND WAUSAU. THE LOW CLOUD PATCH             
BETWEEN PARK FALLS AND WAUSAU WAS MUCH MORE EXPANSIVE EARLIER                   
TODAY...ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF WI INTO THE WI BORDER COUNTIES.                    
HOWEVER...THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE LOW CLOUDS SEEN ON TAMDAR                   
SOUNDINGS AND THE HEATING FROM THE WEAK DECEMBER SUN WAS ABLE TO MIX            
MUCH OF THOSE LOW CLOUDS OUT. 18Z TAMDAR SOUNDING FROM RHI STILL                
DEPICTS A STRONG INVERSION AROUND 900MB...THOUGH...WITH TEMPS                   
CLIMBING FROM -10C AT 925MB TO 0C AT 870MB. OTHER LOW CLOUDS WHICH              
HAVE BEEN ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER BETTER DUE TO LAKE MOISTENING WERE              
PRESENT FROM WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE KEWEENAW. AT THE SURFACE            
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW IS A 1010MB LOW TO THE WEST OF THUNDER            
BAY ONTARIO...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING WEST INTO FAR NW MN.                  
FARTHER WEST...LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING NEAR RAPID CITY IN THE                
DOWNSLOPE ZONAL FLOW AHEAD OF THE IDAHO SHRTWV.                                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUE)...                                                
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD IS QUITE EASY...               
WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUE. SHRTWV AND SURFACE LOW IN            
NW ONTARIO HEAD INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING                
SOUTH INTO THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND BECOMING STATIONARY. THEN ON              
TUE...THE SHRTWV TROUGH OVER IDAHO MOVES INTO WI BY 00Z...BRINGING              
THE SURFACE LOW OVER RAPID CITY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL UPPER MI.                    
ALTHOUGH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EASY...THERE ARE MANY ISSUES WITH              
THIS FORECAST...PARTICULARLY WITH CLOUD COVER (THUS TEMPERATURES                
TOO). DESPITE THAT SKIES CLEARED OUT THIS AFTERNOON...LIGHT WEST TO             
SW WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP QUICKLY THIS EVENING.                
GIVEN THE STRONG INVERSION PRESENT ON THE RHI TAMDAR SOUNDING...A               
LOW CLOUD DECK COULD REDEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING OVER THE HIGHER                
TERRAIN OF NORTHERN WI AND WESTERN UPPER MI. THIS IS SUGGESTED TOO              
BY THE RUC AND NAM. HOWEVER...THE GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH WIND            
TO KEEP THE LOW LEVELS MIXED ENOUGH TO PREVENT THAT LOW CLOUD DECK              
FROM FORMING. HAVE FOLLOWED THE NAM/RUC SCENARIO...BUT EITHER                   
SCENARIO AT THIS POINT SEEMS LIKELY. THUS...HAVE LOWEST TEMPS                   
OCCURRING JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT (WHICH WERE DROPPED A FEW DEGREES FROM            
PREVIOUS FORECAST GIVEN CLEAR SKIES PRESENT NOW) AND THEN RISING                
AFTERWORDS. EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO WATCH THE CLOUDS AND TEMPS               
CLOSELY. BOTH SCENARIOS...HOWEVER...DEPICT THE SAME THING OVER THE              
KEWEENAW. AS THE COLD FRONT OVER NW MN DROPS DOWN INTO THE                      
KEWEENAW...IT WILL BRING THE LOW CLOUDS OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR              
INTO THERE. ENOUGH COLD AIR NEAR 925MB LOOKS TO COME IN TOO WITH THE            
FRONT TO GENERATE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT. THIS ENHANCEMENT COMBINED              
WITH UPSLOPING FLOW COULD PRODUCE EITHER FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT              
SNOW...GIVEN THAT THE TOP OF THE INVERSION TEMPERATURE IS AROUND                
-8C.                                                                            
ANOTHER AREA WHERE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP TONIGHT IS ACROSS MN               
AND WESTERN WI AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER RAPID CITY WOUNDS UP AND                 
MOVES EAST. AS THIS LOW HEADS TOWARDS UPPER MI...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS              
TO EXPAND ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN U.P. WHERE                 
NORTHEAST WINDS CAN ADVECT THE LAKE ENHANCED LOW CLOUDS                         
SOUTHWESTWARD. QUESTION THEN IS ABOUT PCPN SINCE THE SHRTWV TROUGH              
IS APPROACHING THE AREA...WHICH MEANS WE WILL BE UNDER DPVA.                    
SOUNDINGS DEPICT SOME DRY AIR THAT NEEDS TO BE OVERCOME IN THE LOW              
TO MID-LEVELS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THUS...POPS FOR PCPN WILL               
REMAIN AFTER 18Z...EXCEPT OVER THE KEWEENAW WHERE UPSLOPING FLOW                
COULD RESULT IN PCPN OUT OF THE LOW CLOUD DECK IN THE MORNING. AS               
FAR AS PCPN TYPE GOES IN THE AFTERNOON...IF THE DRY AIR IS FULLY                
OVERCOME AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS...THEN WE WILL ONLY BE DEALING                 
WITH SNOW...SINCE ANY SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPLETS IN THE LOW CLOUD               
LAYER WOULD BE PICKED UP BY DENDRITES ALOFT. HOWEVER...THE NAM                  
SUGGESTS MORE DRY AIR IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD RESULT IN                  
EITHER FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SNOW. THUS BOTH TYPES WILL REMAIN IN THE             
GOING FORECAST. GOING HIGH TEMPERATURES SEEM REASONABLE.                        
.LONG TERM (TUE NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MON)...                                      
THE WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SAIL ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN TUESDAY NIGHT.               
THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN LAKE HURON. THE ACCOMPANYING            
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE U.P. FROM KIMT TO ST IGNACE              
AT 00Z. ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE LOW WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL              
PRODUCE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE SNOW GROWTH AREA            
SEEMS TO BE ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELD. THUS THE TEMPERATURE            
FORECAST PROFILE SUGGEST A POSSIBILITY OF SNOW MIXED WITH SOME                  
FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AS               
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW FREEZING.                           
ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SNOW DEVELOPMENT.                     
THE SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A              
WEAK RIDGE SLIDE OVER THE WESTERN U.P. ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL               
MOVE INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE LINES UP OVER             
ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO            
THE REGION BEHIND THE LOW AND END THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE            
WEST. A LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TRACK INTO THE             
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW                  
DEVELOPS OVER ALBERTA AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. A SHORTWAVE              
WILL START TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN U.P. SOUTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE             
LOW WILL DRAW A LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA...MAINLY                
OVER THE WEST END. ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE MANITOBA LOW AND              
NORTHEAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LOW COULD BRING SOME                  
SHOWERS INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR OVER NIGHT. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW               
WILL HELP HOLD THE TEMPERATURES UP.                                             
THE WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL RELOCATE OVER THE CENTRAL U.P. ON                
THURSDAY. THE MANITOBA LOW WILL WEAKEN AND MERGE WITH ANOTHER                   
SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL                   
CONTINUE TO BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE TEMPERATURES WILL             
STILL BE COLD ENOUGH THAT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FORMS WILL BE SNOW.            
THE AIR MASS IS STILL DRY ENOUGH TO CONSIDER ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF            
SNOW SHOWERS.                                                                   
THE SHORTWAVE OVER WISCONSIN AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SHIFT               
INTO EASTERN U.P. THURSDAY NIGHT. TWO SHORTWAVES WILL BE EJECTED OUT            
OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE FIRST WILL REACH THE ARROWHEAD OF                   
MINNESOTA AS THE SECOND REACHES THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. THE FIRST                  
SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AS THE                 
SECOND ONE EDGES INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE SURFACE LOW OVER                 
EASTERN MONTANA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA ON                   
FRIDAY. 30F SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE STREAMING NORTH FROM THE GULF            
IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW. THE 850MB 0C ISOTHERM WILL               
PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUGGESTING THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL              
BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...ISENTROPIC                
ASCENT AND AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WOULD SUGGEST AN INCREASE               
CHANCES OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON.                                               
THE LOW WILL SWING OUT OF CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO IOWA ON SATURDAY             
AND ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY REACHING SOUTHERN                  
QUEBEC ON MONDAY. USING THE THICKNESSES AND SOUNDING PROFILES...IT              
APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A MIX BAG A PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH             
THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. GFS IS ACTUALLY MOVING THE               
WARMER AIR IN A LITTLE EARLIER THAN THE EC...BUT WILL STICK WITH THE            
EC SOLUTION FOR NOW...SINCE SYSTEMS SEEMS TO BE SLOWING DOWN MORE               
THAN SPEEDING UP. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF               
FREEZING RAIN OR WET ROADS FREEZING OVERNIGHT MAKING IT PARTICULARLY            
HAZARDOUS FOR HOLIDAY TRAVELERS.                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
TAF FORECASTS ARE TROUBLESOME TODAY. LOW CLOUDS AND MIST THAT WERE              
OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND HEADING UP INTO UPPER MICHIGAN HAVE BEEN            
DISSIPATING OVER THE PAST HOUR...AND PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE TO                  
DISSIPATE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH EXTRA HEATING. SO ALTHOUGH A              
BKN IFR OR LOW MVFR DECK MAY COME INTO SAW SHORTLY SINCE THE CLOUDS             
ARE ON THE DOORSTEP...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP UNTIL 20Z. AS            
NIGHTTIME COOLING SETS IN...THESE CLOUDS AND MIST SHOULD                        
REDEVELOP...PROBABLY NEAR OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT CMX...SOME LOW             
IFR CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY OVER THE AIRPORT...BUT ARE MOVING NE. THUS             
THESE CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER/CLEAR OUT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.                  
HOWEVER...LURKING OFF ON WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR IS EXTENSIVE LOW                 
CLOUDS WITH LIFR CIGS. AS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY UP IN NW MN                    
APPROACHES THE KEWEENAW THIS EVENING...THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK              
IN...WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SNOW AS            
LAKE EFFECT ENHANCES THE CLOUDS. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST AT                
BOTH TAF SITES INTO TUE...WITH LIFR CEILINGS...IFR VSBYS AND                    
FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT SNOW.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
LOW PRESSURE NEAR INTERNATIONAL FALLS MN WILL DROP SE ACROSS LAKE               
SUPERIOR TONIGHT. SW WINDS UP TO 25 KT AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL                    
CONTINUE THIS EVENING...THEN DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS THE COLD               
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW DROPS SOUTH LATE TONIGHT...AND THEN AS            
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL UPPER                   
MI...NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KT DOWN               
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TUE NIGHT AND WED AS               
THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE              
BUILDS IN. AS THIS RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THU...SOUTHERLY FLOW             
WILL INCREASE ON LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 30                    
KT...THOUGH FOR THU INTO FRI. A STRONG SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO               
MOVE TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SAT. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK             
AND TIMING...WE COULD BE DEALING WITH GALE FORCE WINDS...BUT RIGHT              
NOW THE BEST POSSIBILITY FOR GALES APPEARS TO BE VERY LATE SAT NIGHT            
OR INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW HEADS INTO EASTERN ONTARIO.                
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...AJ                                                        
LONG TERM...DLG                                                                 
AVIATION/MARINE...AJ                                                            
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
344 PM EST MON DEC 17 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...SURFACE/SATELLITE/RUC ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON REVEALS             
A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN. MOISTURE               
TRAPPED BELOW A 925 MB INVERSION BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS MUCH OF            
WISCONSIN AND LOWER MICHIGAN HAS BEEN MIXING OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH            
SUNNY SKIES BREAKING OUT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...SOME              
VERY SHALLOW SFC-925MB LAKE INSTABILITY REMAINS...KEEPING THE LAKE              
MICHIGAN SHORELINE STUCK IN SOME LOW CLOUD COVER. WITH WARM FRONT               
LIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...STILL EXPERIENCING SOME LOW CLOUD            
COVER ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN EASTERN UPPER                     
MICHIGAN. FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM REVOLVE AROUND CLOUD               
COVER ISSUES IMPACTING LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...THEN FOCUS SHIFTS             
TO AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION               
LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN DECENT                
AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE NEXT 18 HOURS AND USED A BLEND THROUGH            
THIS TIME PERIOD. HOWEVER...THEY START TO DIVERGE WITH THE APPROACH             
OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FOR THIS FORECAST...FAVORING             
A SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND MILDER NAM SOLUTION AS THE GFS SEEMS TO ALLOW             
THE SYSTEM TO COOL THE SYSTEM MUCH TOO FAST.                                    
TONIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NORTH OF THE            
SOO THIS EVENING. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY STALL JUST              
TO THE NORTH AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE             
INSISTENT ON KEEPING SOME SHALLOW (SFC-925MB) LAKE INSTABILITY GOING            
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WITH DELTA TS IN THIS LAYER ABOVE 6C. WITH             
SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED...CLOUDS WILL BE MOST PERSISTENT ALONG THE             
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE... STRETCHING UP INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN            
TONIGHT. ALL OTHER AREAS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR AND QUIET. AREAS            
UNDER THE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN MILDER TONIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE               
20S...WHILE LOCATIONS UNDER THE CLEAR SKIES WILL FALL BACK INTO THE             
TEENS.                                                                          
TOMORROW...SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN                     
PLAINS...WITH A CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK               
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A            
NICE SATURATED LAYER BELOW 800MB...WHICH ALL REMAINS WARMER THAN                
-10C. THIS WOULD POSE A FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT BY LATE IN THE                  
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE THERE IS SOME                   
700-500MB RH GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT CROSSING THE AREA. THIS WOULD              
PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE SOME SEEDER/FEEDER PROCESSES AND              
INTRODUCE SOME ICE NUCLEI INTO THE LOWER CLOUD LAYER. THUS...CANNOT             
RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH A MIXTURE OF                   
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW FOR LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.                    
KAS                                                                             
TUESDAY NIGHT...USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z NAM FOR               
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED PACIFIC SHORTWAVE DUE TO CROSS THE                     
AREA...SINCE THE 12Z GFS IS COOLER AND MORE MOIST THAN THE MAJORITY             
OF GUIDANCE.  PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA            
OVERNIGHT WITH A WEAK 1012MB SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO TRAVEL ACROSS              
THE TIP OF THE MITT.  A MODERATE POCKET OF 700-500MB -DIVQ WILL BE              
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE DEPTH MAKES               
PRECIP TYPE PROBLEMATIC.  ALTHOUGH THE BEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE                
NORTH OF THE SOO ALONG A LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE...ENOUGH MOISTURE            
SEEMS TO BE PRESENT NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK FOR THE                      
PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE TO BE ALL SNOW DESPITE A 3-4KFT DRY WEDGE               
CENTERED AROUND 875MB.  FARTHER SOUTH...PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE              
MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASES TO AROUND -10C ISOTHERM (UP TO AROUND                  
750MB) OVER NORTHERN LOWER.  THIS WOULD INDICATE THAT A CHANCE FOR              
BOTH FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW WOULD BE PRESENT BASED UPON ICE            
NUCLEATION TEMPERATURES.  SOME ENHANCEMENT MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WINDS             
SHIFT TO THE NORTH OR NW AND DELTA T/S INCREASE AROUND 13C...BUT                
HARD TO SAY IF THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON PRECIP TYPE.                         
WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURFACE             
LOW MOVE EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING.  HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL              
MOISTURE BELOW 850MB STILL SEEMS TO SUGGEST A CHANCE FOR FREEZING               
DRIZZLE ALONG WITH THE LIGHT SNOW IN THE MORNING.  CYCLONIC FLOW                
LOOSENS ITS GRIP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS              
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SHALLOW OUT DURING             
THE PM HOURS AND ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY...THINK FREEZING                 
DRIZZLE WILL ONLY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NE CWA BY THIS TIME.                   
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVER THE AREA AND LOW             
LEVELS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT SOMEWHAT...BUT MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE              
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH OVERNIGHT.  SO                 
BETWEEN TRAPPED CLOUD COVER BENEATH THE INVERSION AND INCOMING                  
MID-HIGH DECK...BELIEVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN ON THE CLOUDY               
SIDE.  LOWS SHOULDNT FALL TO FAR HOWEVER...AND WILL GO WITH LOW TO              
MID 20S.                                                                        
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW OVER THE FIRST HALF OF             
THE WEEK BECOMES MORE BUCKLED AS A SERIES OF STRONG SHORTWAVES MOVES            
ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.  THE               
LEADING MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALL SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO...BUT DETAIL              
UNCERTAINTIES BECOME APPARENT STARTING THURSDAY WITH THE SECOND OF              
THESE IMPINGING WAVES.  THIS SECOND WAVE LOOKS TO BE THE APPETIZER              
TO A POTENTIAL STRONG STORM FOR THE WEEKEND.  HPC ARGUES FOR THE USE            
OF THE 00Z ECMWF EXCLUSIVELY...AND GIVEN ITS RECENT STRONG                      
PERFORMANCE AND GENERAL HIGHER VERIFICATION SCORES...TOUGH TO ARGUE             
AGAINST THIS STRATEGY.                                                          
THURSDAY...SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL TARGET             
THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.  BEST FORCING WILL              
LIE AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WELL TO THE SOUTH...BUT A WEAK BAROCLINIC                
ZONE NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRY TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS LOWER               
MICHIGAN MORESO INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.  LIFT OVER THE WARM FRONT                  
APPEARS TO WEAKEN AS THE SHORTWAVE SHEARS OUT AND FORCING WANES A               
BIT...SO THURSDAY STILL LOOKS DRY...WHILE A LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL            
BE PRESENT THURSDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA.                  
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S AND LOWS IN THE            
20S.                                                                            
FRIDAY...SHEARED OUT SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES                 
WHILE SHORTWAVE RIDGING RETURNS.  THERE MAYBE SOME LINGERING LIGHT              
PRECIP IN THE MORNING BEFORE ENERGY FROM THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE               
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES IS TRANSFERRED TO A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW.  WE            
HAVE TO SEE IF AND HOW QUICK THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEPARTS SINCE              
THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MOVING INTO THE               
GREAT LAKES.  WILL KEEP SKIES ON THE CLOUDY SIDE BUT PRECIP OUT OF              
THE FORECAST SINCE ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO BE VERY LIGHT AND PERHAPS                
DRIZZLY.  HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE LOW 30S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.                 
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ALL ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE SW AS A               
POTENT WAVE EMERGES FROM THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS ON                     
SATURDAY.  WARM AIR WILL SURGE NORTH AHEAD OF THE LOW ACROSS THE                
GREAT LAKES.  HOW MUCH WARM AIR DEPENDS ALOT ON THE SPEED OF THE                
SYSTEM...THE SLOWER OF WHICH WOULD LIKELY TRANSFER MORE WARM AIR                
NORTH...AND AIRMASS MODIFICATION FROM DEEP SNOW PACK ACROSS THE                 
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.  THIS WARM AIR WILL ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT ON                
PRECIP TYPE AS WELL...SO WILL KEEP THINGS RATHER GENERAL ON SATURDAY            
WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX UP TO THE STRAITS UNTIL DETAILS CAN BE                     
RESOLVED.  THE SURFACE LOW IS THEN PROJECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE                 
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY WITH THE COLD                
FRONTAL PASSAGE SOMETIME ON SUNDAY.  AIR DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT COLD            
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SINCE MUCH OF THE ARCTIC AIR IS BOTTLED WELL TO              
THE NORTH OVER NORTHERN CANADA.  DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW...PLENTY OF                 
LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE...AND PROBABLY COLD ENOUGH 850MB TEMPS CALLS             
FOR LAKE EFFECT PRECIP SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY.                                  
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION... /ISSUED 1242 PM EST MON DEC 17 2007/                               
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS                            
AFTERNOON...WITH A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MVFR                    
CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST DOMINANT ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE              
NEAR KTVC AND KPLN THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL                 
INSTABILITY KEEPING SOME LAKE CLOUDS AROUND. INLAND AREAS WILL SEE              
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON AS WE MIX OUT THE LOW             
LEVEL INVERSION. HOWEVER...THESE CLOUDS WILL FILL BACK IN TONIGHT AS            
WARM ADVECTION OVER THE SNOWPACK CONTINUES IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM              
FRONT. THUS...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN TONIGHT AND EARLY             
TOMORROW MORNING.                                                               
KAS                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1243 AM EST MON DEC 17 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATE TO PREVIOUS UPDATE...CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN WI INTO UPPER MI               
ARE BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE...EXCLUDING THOSE COMING OFF LAKE                    
MICHIGAN INTO DELTA AND SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES. APPEARS THAT THE WEAK             
DECEMBER SUN WAS STILL ABLE TO PROVIDE ENOUGH SOLAR RADIATION TO                
START MIXING OUT THE STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION NOTED ON AREA TAMDAR            
SOUNDINGS. WILL BE UPDATING THE GRIDS TO GO MORE OPTIMISTIC ON THE              
CLOUD COVER...AT LEAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.                    
HOWEVER...NOCTURNAL COOLING COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY MOIST DEWPOINTS            
IN THE MID TEENS SHOULD SUPPORT REFORMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND MIST            
LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF LOW             
CLOUDS AND FREEZING DRIZZLE REMAINS OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA                 
TONIGHT WITH A LOT OF LOW CLOUDS PRESENT ON WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.              
PREVIOUS UPDATE ISSUED AT 1102 AM EST...                                        
VERY TRICKY FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR            
IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NW ONTARIO...WHICH MODELS                
PROG TO NOW MOVE EVEN FARTHER NORTH...ACROSS VERY FAR NORTHERN LAKE             
SUPERIOR OR IN ONTARIO. U.S. AND CANADIAN RADARS DEPICT ALL OF THE              
PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE MN/ONTARIO                      
BORDER...LIKELY DUE TO DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS DEPICTED ON THE 12Z            
INL AND GRB SOUNDINGS. THIS UPPER LOW IS REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE BY            
A 1009MB LOW NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF MANITOBA/ONTARIO AND MN...WITH            
A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SE THROUGH THE KEWEENAW AND INTO THE EASTERN             
U.P.. SOUTH OF THIS WARM FRONT...LOW CLOUDS...MIST AND LIGHT SNOW               
HAVE BEEN ADVECTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CWA FROM WI ON SW WINDS.             
HOWEVER...THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO MOVE INTO DOWNSLOPE AREAS...             
SUCH AS ONTONAGON...BARAGA AND MARQUETTE...WHICH COMBINED WITH THE              
12Z GRB SOUNDING SHOW THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE CLOUDS. THE RUC                 
MODELS HAVE HAD A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THESE LOW CLOUDS ON THEIR               
950MB RH FIELD...AND UPDATED THE CLOUD FORECAST FOR TODAY INTO                  
TONIGHT BASED ON THIS FIELD. BASICALLY...THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD                  
ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE U.P. BY 00Z TONIGHT...WITH DOWNSLOPE AREAS                
TAKING THE LONGEST TO SEE THE CLOUDS. IN ADDITION...ADDED SOME                  
FLURRIES SINCE SITES SUCH AS LNL...IMT AND EGV HAVE REPORTED                    
THEM...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THAT THE LOW CLOUD DECK IS WITHIN THE            
-10 TO -12C ZONE. DEBATED ABOUT ADDING SOME PATCHY FOG TOO...BUT                
WITH VISIBILITIES GENERALLY ABOVE 2 SM...FIGURE THINGS WILL BE OKAY.            
REGARDING SYNOPTIC PCPN CHANCES WITH THE UPPER LOW...HAVE SHIFTED               
THESE NORTH OF UPPER MI TODAY GIVEN THE FARTHER NORTH TRACK.                    
HOWEVER...AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVES IN            
TONIGHT...IT COULD END UP PICKING UP SOME LAKE MOISTURE AND                     
GENERATING LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS...SINCE LAPSE RATES FROM THE LAKE               
SURFACE TO 900MB ARE PROGGED TO BECOME MORE THAN MOIST ADIABATIC.               
THIS PCPN WOULD MOVE INTO THE KEWEENAW THIS EVENING AND REMAIN                  
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE NIGHT. PCPN TYPE IS OF CONCERN AS THE             
TOP OF THE INVERSION MAY ONLY REACH -8C AT BEST. THUS...HAVE DECIDED            
TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF FZDZ FOR THE KEWEENAW TOO.                              
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE LIGHT SNOW CHANCES TODAY THROUGH WED ALONG               
WITH FZDZ POTENTIAL TUE INTO EARLY WED.                                         
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG            
THE WEST COAST...A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES...AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER             
THE EAST HALF OF THE CONUS. A COMPACT SHORTWAVE/VORT WAS LOCATED                
OVER SRN MANITOBA WITH A DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE RIDGE INTO THE WRN                
GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES WAS LOCATED SE MANITOBA WITH A               
RIDGE FROM WRN ONTARIO INTO WI WHILE THE EAST COAST STORM (971 MB               
LOW) WAS LIFTING THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. TROUGHING ALSO                 
EXTENDED THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LEAVING NW FLOW THROUGH ERN              
LAKE SUPERIOR AND WEAK SW WINDS OVER THE WEST PORTION OF THE LAKE.              
850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -10C SUPPORTED WEAK MULTIPLE WIND PARALLEL               
LES BANDS ALIGNED WITH 310-320 CBL FLOW INTO THE ERN CWA THAT                   
CONTINUED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. UPSTREAM 2-4SM VSBY WITH LIGHT SNOW               
WAS REPORTED OVER SRN MANITOBA INTO WRN ONTARIO...MAINLY ALONG THE              
MID LEVEL VORT TRACK.                                                           
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE LES OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE CWA WILL END             
AS WINDS BACK WSW BY MID TO LATE MORNING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING               
LOW. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL SHOULD AMOUNT TO LESS THAN AN INCH. THE                
BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WITH THE MANITOBA SHORTWAVE WILL BE ALONG THE              
PATH OF THE MID LEVEL VORT WITH THE AREA OF MODERATE MID/UPPER LEVEL            
QVECTOR CONV AND STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL KEEP MOST             
OF THE SNOW NORTH FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING NORTH OF UPPER             
MI. ONLY CHANCE POPS INCLUDED VCNTY KCMX/KP59/KERY WITH SLIGHT                  
CHANCE TO THE SOUTH AND NO PCPN MENTIONED CLOSER TO THE WI BORDER.              
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT              
WITH THE POSITION/STRENGTH OF THE PAC NW TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO THE            
REGION. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE WELL-DEFINED LOOK OF THIS FEATURE FROM              
THE WV LOOP AND INITIALIZATION PROBLEMS WITH THE 00Z NAM/GFS NOTED              
BY HPC...THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER/DEEPER 00Z CANADIAN REG                          
GEM...SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF...WAS PREFERRED. AN INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL            
MOISTURE WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR AOB -10C MAY ALSO RESULT IN SOME               
PATCHY FZDZ ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.                
AGAIN THE MID LEVEL LOW TRACK WILL BRING BEST SNOW CHANCES MAINLY               
NORTH OF UPPER MI WITH THE POPS TAPERED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. EXPECT             
DEEP MOISTURE AOA -10C OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTH BY TUE                            
NIGHT...REDUCING CHANCES FOR FZDZ.                                              
WEDNESDAY...WITH FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MOISTURE RECEDING TO AROUND             
-8C...NRLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT                   
LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW OR             
FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI IN THE                          
MORNING...ESPECIALLY WHERE WINDS UPSLOPE INTO HIGHER TERRAIN.                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
TAF FORECASTS ARE TROUBLESOME TODAY. LOW CLOUDS AND MIST THAT WERE              
OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND HEADING UP INTO UPPER MICHIGAN HAVE BEEN            
DISSIPATING OVER THE PAST HOUR...AND PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE TO                  
DISSIPATE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH EXTRA HEATING. SO ALTHOUGH A              
BKN IFR OR LOW MVFR DECK MAY COME INTO SAW SHORTLY SINCE THE CLOUDS             
ARE ON THE DOORSTEP...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP UNTIL 20Z. AS            
NIGHTTIME COOLING SETS IN...THESE CLOUDS AND MIST SHOULD                        
REAPPEAR...PROBABLY NEAR OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT CMX...SOME LOW              
IFR CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY OVER THE AIRPORT...BUT ARE MOVING NE. THUS             
THESE CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER/CLEAR OUT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.                  
HOWEVER...LURKING OFF ON WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR IS EXTENSIVE LOW                 
CLOUDS WITH LIFR CIGS. AS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY UP IN NW MN                    
APPROACHES THE KEWEENAW THIS EVENING...THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK              
IN...WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SNOW AS            
LAKE EFFECT ENHANCES THE CLOUDS. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST AT                
BOTH TAF SITES INTO TUE...WITH LIFR CEILINGS...IFR VSBYS AND                    
FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT SNOW.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.1 INCHES OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR             
WILL GIVE WAY TO A 29.9 INCH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM CENTRAL                   
MANITOBA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL EXIT TO THE EAST AND                
WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY. IT WILL BE REPLACED BY A SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW            
OF 29.8 INCHES FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA TUESDAY AFTERNOON... CROSSING             
UPPER MICHIGAN TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MAKING IT TO THE EASTERN GREAT               
LAKES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 30               
KNOTS WITH THESE TWO SYSTEMS...AND PROBABLY EVEN AT OR BELOW 25                 
KNOTS.                                                                          
HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.0 INCHES WILL THEN OVERTAKE THE AREA. A 29.7                
INCH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS                    
THURSDAY MORNING WILL MOVE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY.                
ALSO ON FRIDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OF 29.6 INCHES WILL BE             
SLIDING OUR WAY FROM NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA. WINDS LESS             
THAN 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOOKING MORE INTO               
THE FUTURE...IT LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST CHANCE OF GALES ON LAKE                    
SUPERIOR WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK             
AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW.                               
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...AJ                                                                     
DISCUSSION...JLB                                                                
AVIATION...AJ                                                                   
MARINE...KF                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1242 PM EST MON DEC 17 2007                                                     
.AVIATION...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS                
AFTERNOON...WITH A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MVFR                    
CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST DOMINANT ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE              
NEAR KTVC AND KPLN THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL                 
INSTABILITY KEEPING SOME LAKE CLOUDS AROUND. INLAND AREAS WILL SEE              
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON AS WE MIX OUT THE LOW             
LEVEL INVERSION. HOWEVER...THESE CLOUDS WILL FILL BACK IN TONIGHT AS            
WARM ADVECTION OVER THE SNOWPACK CONTINUES IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM              
FRONT. THUS...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN TONIGHT AND EARLY             
TOMORROW MORNING.                                                               
KAS                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE... /ISSUED 1030 AM EST MON DEC 17 2007/                                 
RUC/SURFACE/SATELLITE/SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING REVEALS                     
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.                
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA...SFC WINDS HAVE BEEN              
BACKING AROUND TO THE WEST THIS MORNING...EVENTUALLY ENDING UP AT               
SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WARM FRONT IS NOT VERY EVIDENT WITH             
REGARDS TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...LOOKING AT WINDS AND LOW             
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT...APPEARS THE MAIN WARM FRONT BOUNDARY IS LOCATED             
FROM CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN...SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LONG AXIS OF                
LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. CEILINGS AROUND                
KFKS AND KMBL ARE BEGINNING TO FALL TO AROUND 2KFT SUGGESTING THE               
FRONT IS STARTING TO PUSH ONSHORE INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. ALSO            
EVIDENT IS THE DWINDLING OVER LAKE INSTABILITY. RADAR REFLECTIVITIES            
HAVE SHOWN A DECREASING TREND OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. LATEST 850MB             
RUC TEMPERATURE ANALYSIS REVEALS -4C 850MB AIR IMMEDIATELY BEHIND               
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT IN EASTERN WISCONSIN. WITH LAKE MICHIGAN                 
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY RUNNING AROUND +7C...DELTA TS WILL FALL TO               
LESS THAN THE IDEAL 13C BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WARMER AIR               
UPSTREAM ADVECTS INTO THE AREA. THUS...THE ONGOING DIMINISHING TREND            
TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER             
OF THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.                                             
THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW A 900MB               
INVERSION AS SHOWN BY LOW CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS WISCONSIN.                      
THUS...WOULD EXPECT THIS LOW CLOUD COVERAGE TO EXPAND EAST AND NORTH            
TODAY...OVERTAKING MOST OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.            
THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SHALLOW ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY DRIZZLE OR               
FLURRIES FROM DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.                                        
NO CHANGES PLANNED TO SFC TEMPERATURES...AS INCREASING CLOUDS WILL              
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING OUT OF THE UPPER 20S THIS                   
AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN                        
SHORELINE...WHERE ONSHORE WINDS WITH THE HELP OF STILL SOMEWHAT WARM            
LAKE WATERS WILL ALLOW LOCATIONS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 30S.                   
KAS                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM EST MON DEC 17 2007/                         
ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...973 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER                
UPSTATE MAINE...1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER EAST TEXAS AND 1008 MB               
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA. APX RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW A            
BROAD AREA OF NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT MOVING OFF OF LAKES                    
SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THIS                  
ACTIVITY IS ON THE LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SIDE (LOWEST VSBYS            
OF 1 1/2 TO 3 MILES). THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE             
AROUND THE TIMING OF THE ENDING OF LAKE EFFECT TODAY...THEN POPS                
WITH WARM ADVECTION/CLIPPER SYSTEM LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. OTHER              
CONCERNS INCLUDE POPS THIS EVENING AND POPS AND POTENTIAL FOR                   
FREEZING DRIZZLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY.                              
TODAY...DESPITE INCREASING RIDGING/ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ALONG                
WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN (MODELS LOWER MEAN 900-700 MB RH TO ABOUT              
40 PERCENT AT 12Z)...THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE CONTINUES TO CHURN ON              
AS IS THE CASE MORE TIMES THAN NOT. THEREFORE WILL LINGER POPS OVER             
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AS WARMER TEMPERATURES ADVECT IN ALOFT (850             
MB TEMPS INCREASE FROM BETWEEN -10 AND -12 AT 12Z TO -6 AND -9 AT               
18Z TO -2 AND -6 AT 00Z)...OVER LAKE INSTABILITY WILL SLOWLY                    
DECREASE WHICH SHOULD END LAKE EFFECT SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON. SO               
WILL CONTINUE WITH NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAVORED AREAS THIS              
MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR               
TWO. THE FLOW BACKS FROM NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING INTO THE WEST             
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL ORIENTATE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS             
AS WELL. IN ADDITION...WARM ADVECTION/A BIT OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT                
(I280) IN COMBINATION WITH A WEAK CLIPPER MOVING ACROSS SOUTH                   
CENTRAL CANADA WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO EASTERN UPPER               
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.                   
TONIGHT...CLIPPER CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN CANADA                  
GRAZING EASTERN UPPER THIS EVENING LEADING TO A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW            
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ZONES. MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE IS A WEAK AREA            
OF DIV-Q AND A MARGINAL AMOUNT OF MOISTURE (MEAN 1000-500 MB RH 60              
TO 70 PERCENT) ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...OVER LAKE               
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO WANE AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES SETTLE IN              
BETWEEN -2 AND -4 C. LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.                      
TUESDAY...NOT A LOT GOING ON TO START THE DAY AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE             
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER CLIPPER ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED                 
SURFACE WARM FRONT THEN APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE               
DAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR EVEN SOME FREEZING            
DRIZZLE (MODEL CROSS SECTIONS/SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ONLY            
UP TO ABOUT -8C) ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ZONES. MILDER WITH HIGHS IN THE            
LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S.                                                           
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...CLIPPER TAKES ITS TIME MOVING ACROSS             
THE REGION. MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO REMAIN SHALLOW IN THE EVENING                  
LEADING TO A CONTINUED CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE THEN DEEP ENOUGH              
AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.                
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S WITH HIGHS ON                    
WEDNESDAY RANGING FROM AROUND 30 TO THE MIDDLE 30S.                             
THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE            
MOVES BY TO OUR SOUTH. WILL ADD IN LOW CHANCE POPS INTO FAR SOUTHERN            
ZONES TO LINE UP WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND               
MIDDLE 30S.                                                                     
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. POTENTIAL MESS                
NEXT WEEKEND THOUGH AS THE EXTENDED MODELS BRING A DEEP AREA OF LOW             
PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES (WITH POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION            
TYPE ISSUES).                                                                   
SULLIVAN                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
1056 AM CST MON DEC 17 2007                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN OKLAHOMA SNOWFIELD ARE RISING SLOWER               
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. LAPS ANALYSIS WAS INCORPORATED AND THE                
RUC FOR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ONLY SINCE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES REMAIN               
IN THE RUC NEAR OKLAHOMA CITY AND TULSA. CLOUD FORECAST WAS                     
ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THE NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND THE APPROACHING MID              
AND HIGH CLOUD FROM THE SOUTHWEST.                                              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  49  34  54  31 /   0   0   0   0                              
HOBART OK         53  32  56  31 /   0   0   0   0                              
WICHITA FALLS TX  55  37  62  35 /   0   0   0   0                              
GAGE OK           52  24  54  25 /   0   0   0   0                              
PONCA CITY OK     44  29  49  29 /   0   0   0   0                              
DURANT OK         55  40  58  39 /   0   0   0   0                              
&&                                                                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
99/99                                                                           
</pre> ok