AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
1015 AM EDT TUE JUN 7 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
PLENTY OF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WITH PW VALUES OFF THE 12Z                   
SOUNDINGS RUNNING 1.8"-1.9".  WEAK PGRAD BLO H70 WITH MEAN LVL WINDS            
BLO 10KTS.  WHILE THIS WILL ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO FORM             
BY MIDDAY...UNDER SUCH A WEAK FLOW REGIME SEABREEZE COLLISION IS                
UNLIKELY THIS AFTN.  LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD LOW/MID LVL                 
ASCENT IN THE H70 OMEGA FIELD...NEUTRAL OR NEGATIVE MID LVL                     
VORTICITY ADVECTION...AND NEUTRAL UPR LVL DIVERGENCE.                           
WITHOUT ANY MID OR UPR LVL FORCING...DIURNAL PRECIP IS GOING TO HAVE            
TO RELY ON LOW LVL INSTABILITY AND BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS.                       
FURTHERMORE...GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW REGIME OVER THE AREA...STORM                  
MOVEMENT IS GOING TO BE SLOW...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED.           
WILL KEEP 60 POPS IN THE FCST FOR THE SRN THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE                
THE MOISTURE IS HIGHER AND SEA/LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS                
MORE LIKELY.  TO THE N...WILL LOW LOWER POPS DOWN TO 50% OVER THE               
INTERIOR COUNTIES AND 40% OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES.                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...LIGHT WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREA THIS MORNING WITH                    
NEGLIGIBLE WIND WAVES AND A SMALL 2 FT EAST SWELL. EAST COAST SEA               
BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST NEXT COUPLE HOURS. MOST OF THE              
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS...WITH ONLY ISOLATED            
SHOWERS/STORMS MOVEING OFFSHORE THIS AFTN.                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...SCT-NMRS TSTMS DEVELOPING AFT 16Z AS EAST COAST SEA                 
BREEZE PUSHES SLOWLY INLAND.  HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE CSTL               
TAF SITES WILL BE IN THE EARLY AFTN...INTERIOR TAF SITES LATE                   
AFTN/EARLY EVENING.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...BRAGAW                                                             
LONG TERM....KELLY                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
1100 AM CDT TUE JUN 7 2005                                                      
.MORNING DISCUSSION...                                                          
LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL DEPART AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS LOW            
LEVEL WINDS COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. MORNING RAOB FROM               
DVN SUPPORTING MAX T'S IN THE LOWER 90S AND NOT PLANNING ON ANY                 
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO MAX TEMP GRID FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN AREA              
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW ENTERING WESTERN WISCONSIN AND                 
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING CU LINE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL            
IOWA. MAIN VORT TRACK THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE NORTH OF CWA BUT                   
ANOTHER WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMUM ALSO WILL LIFT INTO NORTHERN IL FROM             
THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. 13Z SURFACE ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWING                 
EVIDENCE OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI             
INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SURFACE OBS INDICATING SOME MOISTURE             
POOLING WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. VERY UNSTABLE               
AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AND WITH THESE TWO VERY WEAK FORCING               
MECHANISMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WILL KEEP SOME LOW            
CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTH HALF OF CWA. ALSO WILL HAVE TO WATCH LAKE              
BREEZE EVOLUTION THIS AFTERNOON AND ANY ISOLATED TSRA THAT MAY                  
DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE AT THIS               
POINT AND ONLY UPDATE THAT MAY POSSIBLY BE NEEDED OVER NEXT FEW                 
HOURS WILL FOCUS PRIMARILY ON TEMP TRENDS NEAR THE LAKE WITH                    
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING. NDM                                            
.AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS...                                            
MAIN THREAT FOR AVIATION CONCERNS CONTINUES TO LAKE BREEZE                      
DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL...AND THE POSSIBILTY FOR CONVECTION                       
DEVELOPMENT.                                                                    
ETA 12 SHOWS DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE BREEZE LIKELY AND MAY PUSH WESTWARD            
THROUGH THE ORD AND MDW AREAS.  CAN'T ARGUE WITH THIS GIVEN TEMPS               
RISING INTO LOW 90S OVER LAND...CONTRASTING WITH COLD LAKE WATER AND            
OTHERWISE RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL WINDS.  WITH INCREASING                     
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY, SFC DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 70F               
AND SURFACE BASED CAPE AROUND 3000 J/KG, SCT CB/TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS             
LIKELY.  BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO KEEP WANT TO               
KEEP TS OUT OF THE TAFS FOR THE MOMENT.  OTHERWISE...CIGS SHOULD                
REMAIN VFR.                                                                     
NO SGFNT OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT               
WITH INCRG MOISTURE AND WINDS GOING CALM AROUND SUNRISE, EXPECTING              
VIS TO DECREASE TO AROUND 5SM IN HZ.                                            
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION REGARDING MORNING ZONES/GRIDS:                                      
00Z 850MB ANALYSIS AND EARLY MORNING SURFACE MAPS SHOW VERY JUICY               
AIR MASS FROM LOWER MS VALLEY INTO SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. MESO ETA               
FORECASTS 15+ DEWPOINTS AT 850 AND 70+ DEWPOINTS AT SURFACE TO                  
SPREAD ACROSS NRN IL AND IN BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BE A BIT                
OVERDONE BUT AIR MASS WILL DEFINITELY BECOME NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID              
TODAY. WITH PLENTY OF SUN TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB TO AROUND 90              
OR LOWER 90S. AMS WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MU CAPES                 
PROGGED TO BE 3500 TO 4000 THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE INHIBITION.               
ONLY THING THAT MAY BE LACKING IS TRIGGER. MODELS HINTING AT WEAK               
TRAILING VORT LOBE MAY BRUSH NRN IL LATER TODAY...BUT MAIN FOCUS OF             
TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS MN AND WIS. WILL ADD SMALL CHANCE OF               
TSTMS FAR NRN IL THIS AFTERNOON. MESO ETA AND RUC BOTH SHOWING A                
WEAK LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WITH SELY                            
WINDS...ESPECIALLY NORTH SHORE AREA. THIS COULD ALSO BE FOCUS FOR               
TSTM DEVELOPMENT.                                                               
STRONG VORT MOVING OUT OF GREAT BASIN INTO NRN PLAINS TONIGHT SHOULD            
SEND ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS ACROSS MID-UPR MS VALLEY INTO GREAT                 
LAKES. THIS PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. VERY              
WARM TO HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH A SERIES OF                
IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH AREA IN SWLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE WAVES OF                 
THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING BEYOND 24 HOURS IS DIFFICULT AND ABOUT THE                
ONLY WAY TO HANDLE IT IN FORECAST IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS                  
EVERYDAY. TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN MID 80S TO LOW 90S THROUGHOUT              
BUT IF FRONT SAGS DOWN THE LAKE OR WINDS COME ONSHORE...THERE COULD             
BE SOME BIG FLUCTUATIONS.                                                       
ALLSOPP                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.LOT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
.IL...NONE.                                                                     
.IN...NONE.                                                                     
.LK MI...NONE.                                                                  
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
642 AM CDT TUE JUN 7 2005                                                       
.AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS...                                            
LAKE BREEZE POTENTIAL...AND CONVECTIVE POSSIBILITIES MAIN AVIATION              
FORECAST CONCERNS THIS FCST.                                                    
UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WITH WEAKNESS IN SURFACE PRESSURE             
GRADIENT/WEAK SFC RIDGE AXIS. MODEL 950 MB WIND FORECASTS FROM                  
VARIOUS MODELS ONLY ON ORDER OF 10 KTS TODAY...WITH 00Z RUNS                    
INDICATING SLIGHT SOUTHEASTWARD COMPONENT BY AFTERNOON. 06Z RUNS OF             
HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM/RUC ARE EVEN MORE SUGGESTIVE OF SOUTHEAST                 
COMPONENT WITH LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY PERHAPS MOVING TO/PAST KORD AND             
KMDW. THUS LGT SW WIND THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO COME AROUND                     
SOUTHEASTERLY AT KORD/KMDW GIVEN LIGHT GRADIENT AND STRONG LAND/LAKE            
THERMAL CONTRAST.                                                               
WARM MOIST LOW LEVELS TO BECOME RATHER UNSTABLE TODAY...WITH SBCAPES            
IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG THIS AFTN AND VERY LITTLE CIN. MAIN FOCUS FOR            
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF FORECAST                
AREA TODAY/TONIGHT...ALONG STRENGTHENING STATIONARY/WARM FRONT FROM             
MN TO CNTRL WI. HOWEVER...TAIL OF S/WV TROF MOVING ACROSS WI AND                
GIVEN INSTABILITY AND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY AM A BIT CONCERNED THAT              
ISOLATED TSTMS COULD DEVELOP VCNTY KORD/KMDW THIS AFTN. NOT ENOUGH              
CONFIDENCE TO GO WITH ATTM...BUT HAVE INDICATED CB CLOUD TYPE THIS              
AFTN FOR NOW. DAY SHIFT CAN MONITOR FOR INCLUSION OF TRW IF                     
NECESSARY...AND EFFECT OF OUTFLOW/LAKE BOUNDARIES SHOULD THEY OCCUR.            
RATZER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION REGARDING MORNING ZONES/GRIDS:                                      
00Z 850MB ANALYSIS AND EARLY MORNING SURFACE MAPS SHOW VERY JUICY               
AIR MASS FROM LOWER MS VALLEY INTO SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. MESO ETA               
FORECASTS 15+ DEWPOINTS AT 850 AND 70+ DEWPOINTS AT SURFACE TO                  
SPREAD ACROSS NRN IL AND IN BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BE A BIT                
OVERDONE BUT AIR MASS WILL DEFINITELY BECOME NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID              
TODAY. WITH PLENTY OF SUN TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB TO AROUND 90              
OR LOWER 90S. AMS WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MU CAPES                 
PROGGED TO BE 3500 TO 4000 THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE INHIBITION.               
ONLY THING THAT MAY BE LACKING IS TRIGGER. MODELS HINTING AT WEAK               
TRAILING VORT LOBE MAY BRUSH NRN IL LATER TODAY...BUT MAIN FOCUS OF             
TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS MN AND WIS. WILL ADD SMALL CHANCE OF               
TSTMS FAR NRN IL THIS AFTERNOON. MESO ETA AND RUC BOTH SHOWING A                
WEAK LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WITH SELY                            
WINDS...ESPECIALLY NORTH SHORE AREA. THIS COULD ALSO BE FOCUS FOR               
TSTM DEVELOPMENT.                                                               
STRONG VORT MOVING OUT OF GREAT BASIN INTO NRN PLAINS TONIGHT SHOULD            
SEND ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS ACROSS MID-UPR MS VALLEY INTO GREAT                 
LAKES. THIS PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. VERY              
WARM TO HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH A SERIES OF                
IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH AREA IN SWLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE WAVES OF                 
THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING BEYOND 24 HOURS IS DIFFICULT AND ABOUT THE                
ONLY WAY TO HANDLE IT IN FORECAST IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS                  
EVERYDAY. TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN MID 80S TO LOW 90S THROUGHOUT              
BUT IF FRONT SAGS DOWN THE LAKE OR WINDS COME ONSHORE...THERE COULD             
BE SOME BIG FLUCTUATIONS.                                                       
ALLSOPP                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.LOT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
.IL...NONE.                                                                     
.IN...NONE.                                                                     
.LK MI...NONE.                                                                  
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
ISSUED BY NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN                                                   
1217 PM EST TUE JUN 7 2005                                                      
.AVIATION...QUIET WX OVER NRN INDIANA DURING THE TAF PD AS UPPER LOW            
OVER PACNW EJECTS ANOTHER LOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA BY 18Z WED.                     
STATNRY/WMFNT STREWN ACRS WI AND CNTRL MI WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF               
THE TAF SITES TONIGHT.  NAM AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS/NGM IS               
SHOWING STRONG UVVS AND THETA E RIDGE AXIS NEAR KSBN AROUND MIDNIGHT            
TONIGHT.  WITH LLVL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE COULD SEE SOME            
SCT CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.  OTHER POSSIBILITY IS OVERNIGHT MCS OVR WI            
COULD TAKE A DIVE SOUTH.  WITH LACK OF FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR TSRA              
DEVELOPMENT WILL NOT PUT THUNDER IN THE TAFS BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT                 
INSTEAD WITH MENTION OF CB.                                                     
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
UPDATE...                                                                       
WILL ISSUE A ZONE/GRIDS PACKAGE UPDATE AS CIRRUS CLOUDS SPREADING               
INTO THE FCST AREA ARE NOT THIN ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN MOSTLY SUNNY FCST            
FOR THIS MORNING.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
12Z-12Z.                                                                        
CIRRUS DEBRIS CLOUDS WERE RAPIDLY INVADING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES                
THIS MORNING.  THE DEBRIS CLOUDS WERE BEING TRANSPORTED FROM THE UPR            
MS VLY REGION WHERE MCS WAS TAKING PLACE.  AM EXPECTING BKN CIRRUS              
TO REMAIN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS THE UPR MS VLY ACTS AS A SOURCE             
FOR CIRRUS CLOUDS.  OTHERWISE...AIRMASS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY              
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  LATEST RUC40 NOW SHOWING LOWERING DEWPOINTS            
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S OVER NW INDIANA THIS AFTN...AND UPPER 40S            
TO LOWER 50S DEWPOINTS ACRS NW OHIO.  THIS SEEMS LOGICAL...GIVEN THE            
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS ON VERTICAL ATMOSPHERIC MSTR PROFILES...AND              
THAT THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD MIX ABOVE THE 850 MB LEVEL                           
TODAY...ALLOWING FOR THE DRIER AIR ALOFT TO MIX TO THE SFC.                     
THUS...DESPITE A WEAK SHEARED OUT VORTICITY AXIS FCST TO BE ACRS SRN            
ONTARIO INTO NRN ILLINOIS BY 00Z WEDNESDAY...BELIEVE DRIER DEWPOINTS            
AND A SIGNIFICANT CONVERGENT BOUNDARY WILL PREVENT CONVECTION FROM              
FORMING OVER NW INDIANA AS THE NAM POINTS OUT (IT ALSO HAS FCST                 
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER AND MID 70S IN NW INDIANA AT 21Z...LIKELY THE            
MAIN CULPRIT FOR ITS CONVECTIVE INITIATION).  THUS...WILL MAINTAIN              
VFR CONDITIONS AT KSBN AND KFWA THROUGH 12Z.                                    
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                                              
SFC ANALYSIS AT 07Z DEPICTED A STATIONARY FRONT ACRS SRN                        
OHIO AND SRN INDIANA.  A WARM FRONT WAS NOTED FROM THE NRN PLAINS               
INTO SRN MN AND SRN WISCONSIN.  A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED N OF LAKE              
SUPERIOR.                                                                       
COLD FRONT N OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE U. P. OF              
MICHIGAN TODAY WHILE WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY.                   
MEANWHILE...A WEAK S/WV WILL PIVOT FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE                 
GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z.  THIS S/WV...OR STRETCHED OUT REGION OF              
VORTICITY WILL BE LOCATED FROM SRN ONTARIO...SOUTHWEST INTO NRN                 
ILLINOIS BY 00Z.  BELIEVE NAM IS SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK             
ISSUES WITH ITS VORTICITY BLOW UP BULLSEYE OVER NE ILLINOIS/NW                  
INDIANA BY 00Z.  ALTHOUGH WEAK S/WV WILL BE TICKLING NW CWFA BY                 
00Z...BELIEVE LACK OF LOW LVL FORCING (FRONTAL BOUNDARIES REMAIN TO             
THE N OF THE CWFA) WILL RESULT IN A DRY FORECAST.  IN ADDITION...THE            
NAM SEEMS TO BE POOLING 70 TO 75 DEWPOINTS INTO NE ILLINOIS/NW                  
INDIANA BY 00Z...WHICH LOOKS SUSPECT.  HENCE...THIS SUSPICIOUS HIGH             
AMOUNT OF LOW LVL MSTR...COMBINED WITH THE WEAK S/WV...ARE LIKELY               
LEADING TO ITS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AT 00Z.  BELIEVE THE RUC40                
MODELS INTERPRETATION OF THE DEWPOINT FIELD WHICH ACTUALLY KEEPS                
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACRS THIS REGION.                             
SO...WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FCST FOR TODAY DUE TO A RELATIVELY DRY            
AIRMASS.    850 MB TEMPS ARE FCST TO PEAK AROUND 19 C THIS                      
AFTN...AND WITH MIXING EXPECTED THROUGH THE 850 MB LEVEL...THE SFC              
SHOULD REALIZE THIS WARMTH...RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER               
90S ALL LOCATIONS (EXPECT NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN).  RELATIVELY LOWER                
DEWPOINTS IN THE AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY IN THE NE CWFA (WHERE THE             
RUC40 IS FCST DEWPOINTS TO DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S WITH                 
DIURNAL MIXING) SHOULD ALSO AID IN ALLOWING TEMPS TO PUSH INTO THE              
LOWER 90S.                                                                      
FOR TONIGHT...A MIX OF LEFT OVER FLATTENED OUT CUMULUS CLOUDS AND               
CIRRUS SHOULD RESULT IN PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.  WITH A LIGHT                 
SOUTHERLY FLOW...TEMPS SHOULD ONLY FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.             
LONG TERM...                                                                    
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.                                                       
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BETWEEN NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER               
LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE SE COAST AND STRONG TROUGH TO THE WEST. FLOW OUT            
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE              
FORECAST PERIOD WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE PATTERN LOOKING TO            
OCCUR. THE RESULT WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH                  
INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS AS SFC DEWPTS REMAIN THE MID 60S TO               
POSSIBLY LOW 70S AT TIMES. SEVERAL WAVES WILL EJECT FROM THE BASE OF            
THE TROUGH AND RIDE AROUND ON THE RIDGE AXIS...BASICALLY BRINGING A             
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE                   
PERIOD. HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO EXTENDED GRIDS WITH EXACT                  
TIMING OF ANY WAVES AND THEIR EXACT EFFECTS REMAINING QUESTIONABLE.             
STRONG INSTABILITY WILL EXIST EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ANY               
TRIGGER SPARKING OFF CONVECTION. LIMITING FACTOR WILL ALSO BE WARM              
MID LEVEL TEMPS WITH 700 MB TEMPS RANGING FROM +7 TO +9...LEADING TO            
A STRONG CAP THAT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO BREAK THROUGH. ANYTHING THAT             
CAN BREAK THE CAP WOULD HAVE SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL BUT WITH PULSE               
STORMS THE MOST LIKELY TYPE (WEAK SHEAR...BUT STRONG INSTABILITY                
WITH LI'S TO -7 C AND CAPES AOA 2000 J/KG EACH AFTERNOON)...GREATER             
RISK WILL BE FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING DUE            
TO SLOW MEAN STEERING FLOW.  IF GFS ENDS UP CORRECT...PWATS INCREASE            
TO OVER 2" FRI/SAT WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS...BUT FOR NOW                
WILL NEED TO MONITOR POTENTIAL. MAY NEED TO EXTEND POPS INTO SUN                
NGT/MON BUT ENOUGH UNCERTANTITY THAT FAR OUT WITH MODELS TO HOLD OFF            
FOR NOW.                                                                        
AS FOR TEMPS...READINGS IN THE MID 80S TO CLOSE TO 90 THROUGH THE               
PERIOD LOOKS REASONABLE. CONVECTION UPSTREAM COULD SEND DEBRIS                  
CLOUDS IN ESPECIALLY SOME OF THE MORNINGS...BUT EXACT EFFECTS REMAIN            
QUESTIONABLE SO NO CHANGES TO TEMPS.                                            
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.IN...NONE                                                                      
.MI...NONE                                                                      
.OH...NONE                                                                      
.LK MI...NONE                                                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION/SHORT TERM/UPDATE...                                                   
LONG TERM...                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
635 AM EST TUE JUN 7 2005                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WILL ISSUE A ZONE/GRIDS PACKAGE UPDATE AS CIRRUS CLOUDS SPREADING               
INTO THE FCST AREA ARE NOT THIN ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN MOSTLY SUNNY FCST            
FOR THIS MORNING.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
12Z-12Z.                                                                        
CIRRUS DEBRIS CLOUDS WERE RAPIDLY INVADING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES                
THIS MORNING.  THE DEBRIS CLOUDS WERE BEING TRANSPORTED FROM THE UPR            
MS VLY REGION WHERE MCS WAS TAKING PLACE.  AM EXPECTING BKN CIRRUS              
TO REMAIN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS THE UPR MS VLY ACTS AS A SOURCE             
FOR CIRRUS CLOUDS.  OTHERWISE...AIRMASS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY              
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  LATEST RUC40 NOW SHOWING LOWERING DEWPOINTS            
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S OVER NW INDIANA THIS AFTN...AND UPPER 40S            
TO LOWER 50S DEWPOINTS ACRS NW OHIO.  THIS SEEMS LOGICAL...GIVEN THE            
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS ON VERTICAL ATMOSPHERIC MSTR PROFILES...AND              
THAT THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD MIX ABOVE THE 850 MB LEVEL                           
TODAY...ALLOWING FOR THE DRIER AIR ALOFT TO MIX TO THE SFC.                     
THUS...DESPITE A WEAK SHEARED OUT VORTICITY AXIS FCST TO BE ACRS SRN            
ONTARIO INTO NRN ILLINOIS BY 00Z WEDNESDAY...BELIEVE DRIER DEWPOINTS            
AND A SIGNIFICANT CONVERGENT BOUNDARY WILL PREVENT CONVECTION FROM              
FORMING OVER NW INDIANA AS THE NAM POINTS OUT (IT ALSO HAS FCST                 
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER AND MID 70S IN NW INDIANA AT 21Z...LIKELY THE            
MAIN CULPRIT FOR ITS CONVECTIVE INITIATION).  THUS...WILL MAINTAIN              
VFR CONDITIONS AT KSBN AND KFWA THROUGH 12Z.                                    
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                                              
SFC ANALYSIS AT 07Z DEPICTED A STATIONARY FRONT ACRS SRN                        
OHIO AND SRN INDIANA.  A WARM FRONT WAS NOTED FROM THE NRN PLAINS               
INTO SRN MN AND SRN WISCONSIN.  A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED N OF LAKE              
SUPERIOR.                                                                       
COLD FRONT N OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE U. P. OF              
MICHIGAN TODAY WHILE WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY.                   
MEANWHILE...A WEAK S/WV WILL PIVOT FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE                 
GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z.  THIS S/WV...OR STRETCHED OUT REGION OF              
VORTICITY WILL BE LOCATED FROM SRN ONTARIO...SOUTHWEST INTO NRN                 
ILLINOIS BY 00Z.  BELIEVE NAM IS SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK             
ISSUES WITH ITS VORTICITY BLOW UP BULLSEYE OVER NE ILLINOIS/NW                  
INDIANA BY 00Z.  ALTHOUGH WEAK S/WV WILL BE TICKLING NW CWFA BY                 
00Z...BELIEVE LACK OF LOW LVL FORCING (FRONTAL BOUNDARIES REMAIN TO             
THE N OF THE CWFA) WILL RESULT IN A DRY FORECAST.  IN ADDITION...THE            
NAM SEEMS TO BE POOLING 70 TO 75 DEWPOINTS INTO NE ILLINOIS/NW                  
INDIANA BY 00Z...WHICH LOOKS SUSPECT.  HENCE...THIS SUSPICIOUS HIGH             
AMOUNT OF LOW LVL MSTR...COMBINED WITH THE WEAK S/WV...ARE LIKELY               
LEADING TO ITS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AT 00Z.  BELIEVE THE RUC40                
MODELS INTERPRETATION OF THE DEWPOINT FIELD WHICH ACTUALLY KEEPS                
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACRS THIS REGION.                             
SO...WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FCST FOR TODAY DUE TO A RELATIVELY DRY            
AIRMASS.    850 MB TEMPS ARE FCST TO PEAK AROUND 19 C THIS                      
AFTN...AND WITH MIXING EXPECTED THROUGH THE 850 MB LEVEL...THE SFC              
SHOULD REALIZE THIS WARMTH...RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER               
90S ALL LOCATIONS (EXPECT NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN).  RELATIVELY LOWER                
DEWPOINTS IN THE AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY IN THE NE CWFA (WHERE THE             
RUC40 IS FCST DEWPOINTS TO DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S WITH                 
DIURNAL MIXING) SHOULD ALSO AID IN ALLOWING TEMPS TO PUSH INTO THE              
LOWER 90S.                                                                      
FOR TONIGHT...A MIX OF LEFT OVER FLATTENED OUT CUMULUS CLOUDS AND               
CIRRUS SHOULD RESULT IN PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.  WITH A LIGHT                 
SOUTHERLY FLOW...TEMPS SHOULD ONLY FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.             
LONG TERM...                                                                    
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.                                                       
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BETWEEN NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER               
LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE SE COAST AND STRONG TROUGH TO THE WEST. FLOW OUT            
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE              
FORECAST PERIOD WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE PATTERN LOOKING TO            
OCCUR. THE RESULT WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH                  
INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS AS SFC DEWPTS REMAIN THE MID 60S TO               
POSSIBLY LOW 70S AT TIMES. SEVERAL WAVES WILL EJECT FROM THE BASE OF            
THE TROUGH AND RIDE AROUND ON THE RIDGE AXIS...BASICALLY BRINGING A             
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE                   
PERIOD. HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO EXTENDED GRIDS WITH EXACT                  
TIMING OF ANY WAVES AND THEIR EXACT EFFECTS REMAINING QUESTIONABLE.             
STRONG INSTABILITY WILL EXIST EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ANY               
TRIGGER SPARKING OFF CONVECTION. LIMITING FACTOR WILL ALSO BE WARM              
MID LEVEL TEMPS WITH 700 MB TEMPS RANGING FROM +7 TO +9...LEADING TO            
A STRONG CAP THAT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO BREAK THROUGH. ANYTHING THAT             
CAN BREAK THE CAP WOULD HAVE SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL BUT WITH PULSE               
STORMS THE MOST LIKELY TYPE (WEAK SHEAR...BUT STRONG INSTABILITY                
WITH LI'S TO -7 C AND CAPES AOA 2000 J/KG EACH AFTERNOON)...GREATER             
RISK WILL BE FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING DUE            
TO SLOW MEAN STEERING FLOW.  IF GFS ENDS UP CORRECT...PWATS INCREASE            
TO OVER 2" FRI/SAT WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS...BUT FOR NOW                
WILL NEED TO MONITOR POTENTIAL. MAY NEED TO EXTEND POPS INTO SUN                
NGT/MON BUT ENOUGH UNCERTANTITY THAT FAR OUT WITH MODELS TO HOLD OFF            
FOR NOW.                                                                        
AS FOR TEMPS...READINGS IN THE MID 80S TO CLOSE TO 90 THROUGH THE               
PERIOD LOOKS REASONABLE. CONVECTION UPSTREAM COULD SEND DEBRIS                  
CLOUDS IN ESPECIALLY SOME OF THE MORNINGS...BUT EXACT EFFECTS REMAIN            
QUESTIONABLE SO NO CHANGES TO TEMPS.                                            
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.IN...NONE                                                                      
.MI...NONE                                                                      
.OH...NONE                                                                      
.LK MI...NONE                                                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION/SHORT TERM/UPDATE...HICKMAN                                            
LONG TERM...FISHER                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
630 AM EST TUE JUN 7 2005                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
12Z-12Z.                                                                        
CIRRUS DEBRIS CLOUDS WERE RAPIDLY INVADING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES                
THIS MORNING.  THE DEBRIS CLOUDS WERE BEING TRANSPORTED FROM THE UPR            
MS VLY REGION WHERE MCS WAS TAKING PLACE.  AM EXPECTING BKN CIRRUS              
TO REMAIN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS THE UPR MS VLY ACTS AS A SOURCE             
FOR CIRRUS CLOUDS.  OTHERWISE...AIRMASS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY              
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  LATEST RUC40 NOW SHOWING LOWERING DEWPOINTS            
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S OVER NW INDIANA THIS AFTN...AND UPPER 40S            
TO LOWER 50S DEWPOINTS ACRS NW OHIO.  THIS SEEMS LOGICAL...GIVEN THE            
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS ON VERTICAL ATMOSPHERIC MSTR PROFILES...AND              
THAT THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD MIX ABOVE THE 850 MB LEVEL                           
TODAY...ALLOWING FOR THE DRIER AIR ALOFT TO MIX TO THE SFC.                     
THUS...DESPITE A WEAK SHEARED OUT VORTICITY AXIS FCST TO BE ACRS SRN            
ONTARIO INTO NRN ILLINOIS BY 00Z WEDNESDAY...BELIEVE DRIER DEWPOINTS            
AND A SIGNIFICANT CONVERGENT BOUNDARY WILL PREVENT CONVECTION FROM              
FORMING OVER NW INDIANA AS THE NAM POINTS OUT (IT ALSO HAS FCST                 
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER AND MID 70S IN NW INDIANA AT 21Z...LIKELY THE            
MAIN CULPRIT FOR ITS CONVECTIVE INITIATION).  THUS...WILL MAINTAIN              
VFR CONDITIONS AT KSBN AND KFWA THROUGH 12Z.                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                                              
SFC ANALYSIS AT 07Z DEPICTED A STATIONARY FRONT ACRS SRN                        
OHIO AND SRN INDIANA.  A WARM FRONT WAS NOTED FROM THE NRN PLAINS               
INTO SRN MN AND SRN WISCONSIN.  A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED N OF LAKE              
SUPERIOR.                                                                       
COLD FRONT N OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE U. P. OF              
MICHIGAN TODAY WHILE WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY.                   
MEANWHILE...A WEAK S/WV WILL PIVOT FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE                 
GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z.  THIS S/WV...OR STRETCHED OUT REGION OF              
VORTICITY WILL BE LOCATED FROM SRN ONTARIO...SOUTHWEST INTO NRN                 
ILLINOIS BY 00Z.  BELIEVE NAM IS SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK             
ISSUES WITH ITS VORTICITY BLOW UP BULLSEYE OVER NE ILLINOIS/NW                  
INDIANA BY 00Z.  ALTHOUGH WEAK S/WV WILL BE TICKLING NW CWFA BY                 
00Z...BELIEVE LACK OF LOW LVL FORCING (FRONTAL BOUNDARIES REMAIN TO             
THE N OF THE CWFA) WILL RESULT IN A DRY FORECAST.  IN ADDITION...THE            
NAM SEEMS TO BE POOLING 70 TO 75 DEWPOINTS INTO NE ILLINOIS/NW                  
INDIANA BY 00Z...WHICH LOOKS SUSPECT.  HENCE...THIS SUSPICIOUS HIGH             
AMOUNT OF LOW LVL MSTR...COMBINED WITH THE WEAK S/WV...ARE LIKELY               
LEADING TO ITS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AT 00Z.  BELIEVE THE RUC40                
MODELS INTERPRETATION OF THE DEWPOINT FIELD WHICH ACTUALLY KEEPS                
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACRS THIS REGION.                             
SO...WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FCST FOR TODAY DUE TO A RELATIVELY DRY            
AIRMASS.    850 MB TEMPS ARE FCST TO PEAK AROUND 19 C THIS                      
AFTN...AND WITH MIXING EXPECTED THROUGH THE 850 MB LEVEL...THE SFC              
SHOULD REALIZE THIS WARMTH...RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER               
90S ALL LOCATIONS (EXPECT NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN).  RELATIVELY LOWER                
DEWPOINTS IN THE AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY IN THE NE CWFA (WHERE THE             
RUC40 IS FCST DEWPOINTS TO DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S WITH                 
DIURNAL MIXING) SHOULD ALSO AID IN ALLOWING TEMPS TO PUSH INTO THE              
LOWER 90S.                                                                      
FOR TONIGHT...A MIX OF LEFT OVER FLATTENED OUT CUMULUS CLOUDS AND               
CIRRUS SHOULD RESULT IN PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.  WITH A LIGHT                 
SOUTHERLY FLOW...TEMPS SHOULD ONLY FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.             
LONG TERM...                                                                    
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.                                                       
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BETWEEN NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER               
LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE SE COAST AND STRONG TROUGH TO THE WEST. FLOW OUT            
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE              
FORECAST PERIOD WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE PATTERN LOOKING TO            
OCCUR. THE RESULT WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH                  
INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS AS SFC DEWPTS REMAIN THE MID 60S TO               
POSSIBLY LOW 70S AT TIMES. SEVERAL WAVES WILL EJECT FROM THE BASE OF            
THE TROUGH AND RIDE AROUND ON THE RIDGE AXIS...BASICALLY BRINGING A             
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE                   
PERIOD. HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO EXTENDED GRIDS WITH EXACT                  
TIMING OF ANY WAVES AND THEIR EXACT EFFECTS REMAINING QUESTIONABLE.             
STRONG INSTABILITY WILL EXIST EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ANY               
TRIGGER SPARKING OFF CONVECTION. LIMITING FACTOR WILL ALSO BE WARM              
MID LEVEL TEMPS WITH 700 MB TEMPS RANGING FROM +7 TO +9...LEADING TO            
A STRONG CAP THAT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO BREAK THROUGH. ANYTHING THAT             
CAN BREAK THE CAP WOULD HAVE SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL BUT WITH PULSE               
STORMS THE MOST LIKELY TYPE (WEAK SHEAR...BUT STRONG INSTABILITY                
WITH LI'S TO -7 C AND CAPES AOA 2000 J/KG EACH AFTERNOON)...GREATER             
RISK WILL BE FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING DUE            
TO SLOW MEAN STEERING FLOW.  IF GFS ENDS UP CORRECT...PWATS INCREASE            
TO OVER 2" FRI/SAT WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS...BUT FOR NOW                
WILL NEED TO MONITOR POTENTIAL. MAY NEED TO EXTEND POPS INTO SUN                
NGT/MON BUT ENOUGH UNCERTANTITY THAT FAR OUT WITH MODELS TO HOLD OFF            
FOR NOW.                                                                        
AS FOR TEMPS...READINGS IN THE MID 80S TO CLOSE TO 90 THROUGH THE               
PERIOD LOOKS REASONABLE. CONVECTION UPSTREAM COULD SEND DEBRIS                  
CLOUDS IN ESPECIALLY SOME OF THE MORNINGS...BUT EXACT EFFECTS REMAIN            
QUESTIONABLE SO NO CHANGES TO TEMPS.                                            
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.IN...NONE                                                                      
.MI...NONE                                                                      
.OH...NONE                                                                      
.LK MI...NONE                                                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION/SHORT TERM...HICKMAN                                                   
LONG TERM...FISHER                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
315 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...AS OF MID-MORNING...PATTERN HOLDING PAT AND CHALLENGE             
WILL BE DAY TO DAY CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND RESULTANT HIGH TEMPS FOR              
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. EARLY AM SFC MAP SHOWS MESO-FEATURES DOMINATE                
WITH NUMEROUS WEAK LOW PRESS AREAS FROM NEAR HON TO LBF TO LHX. MAIN            
WARM FRONT OVER EASTERN SD TO CENTRAL WI CONTINUES TO BE FOCUS FOR              
MOST ORGANIZED CONVECTION EARLY ON. OTHER FEATURES INCLUDE TWO                  
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES NOW HEADING SOUTH IN WESTERN IA WITH AN                      
ADDITIONAL WEAK TROUGH OVER SE IOWA AND ANOTHER FROM SW NEBRASKA TO             
ABOUT MKC. OTHER AREA OF BACK-BUILDING CONVECTION IN EASTERN NE HAS             
WEAKENED WITH TIME THIS AM AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD. ALOFT...BEST              
AXIS OF H850 MOISTURE HAS MOVED TO NEAR THE MS RIVER VALLEY WITH                
H700 SHOWING A TRAIN OF WAVES FROM WESTERN MN SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERN             
CALIFORNIA. THE NEXT WAVE ALREADY EXTENDS FROM LBF TO NEAR MKC WITH             
AN ADDITIONAL WAVE ACROSS WESTERN CO. AT H500 WAVES APPEAR OVR KS/OK            
WITH ANOTHER IN WESTERN KS AND ALL ROTATING EAST TO NORTHEAST. MAIN             
H500 LOW STILL BACK IN EASTERN OREGON WITH H300 LOW VERTICALLY                  
STACKED. H500 AND H300 SPEED MAXES CONTINUE HEADING INTO THE                    
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS.                                           
SHORT-TERM (TODAY-FRI)...CURRENT VIS SAT TRENDS SHOW OUTFLOW                    
BOUNDARIES FROM LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION CURRENTLY FIRING BKN035 CU               
OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS WITH POSSIBLE CONVECTION                 
THROUGH EARLY EVE. AS PROGGED TD HAVE RISEN INTO LOWER 70S WITH MAX             
TEMPS +90 IN SPOTS THIS PM. ALSO OF NOTE IN SC KANSAS...POSSIBLE                
DEVELOPING MCV INDICATED WITH CC ROTATION IN CLOUD FIELD. AS                    
EXPECTED...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERENCES WITH MESO FEATURES               
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RUC/NAM PROGGED MLCAPE INCREASING TO 3500               
J/KG BY 06Z WESTERN IA WITH THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR CURRENTLY OVER MO             
BECOMING MORE STABLE AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. WOULD APPEAR THAT               
CURRENT INSTABILITY IS DIURNAL WITH MASS CONVERGENCE ACCOUNTING FOR             
THE INCREASING WESTERN INSTABILITY AS A 55 KT LLJ DEVELOPS AT 06Z.              
THUS...ONGOING CONVECTION OVR EASTERN KS...WESTERN MO...INTO                    
NORTHERN MO ALONG OUTFLOWS/MCVS ALSO HEADING NORTH TOWARD                       
SOUTHCENTRAL/EASTERN IOWA ATTM WILL MORE THAN LIKELY WEAKEN WITH                
TIME. LATER TNT THE FAVORED AREA FOR REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE                      
WESTERN/NW IA AND EASTERN NE WITH MCS MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/MN.             
CAP NOT STRONG BUT SOME HINT AT MID-LVL CAP ONCE AGAIN. BIG QUESTION            
IS WED WITH POSSIBLE BACK-BUILDING/DEVELOPMENT INTO CWA AS                      
CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG TROUGH HEADING EAST WITH LLJ REMAINING              
DURING MORNING HOURS. UKMET/NAM SIMILAR SOLN WITH MOST OF THE DAY               
SEEING CONVECTION AND HIGH MLCAPE. HAVE OPTED TO TRIM BACK HIGHS                
WITH CURRENT THINKING OF BETTER CONVECTION CHANCES. BEST THREAT FOR             
SVR AGAIN APPEARS TO BE WIND AND HAIL WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.            
THU NIGHT IS LACKING STRONG MECHANISM TO FOCUS MOISTURE ACROSS                  
CWA...SO HAVE GONE WITH LOWER POPS...BY FRIDAY AM LLJ BECOMES MORE              
ACTIVE WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKING TO THE SOUTH SETTING THE STAGE               
FOR MORE RAINFALL AND CONTINUED UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS.                       
EXTENDED (FRI NIGHT-TUES)...EXTENDED PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW WARM AND            
WET PATTERN. SOME HINT AT RETURN OF VERY WARM AIR TOWARD END OF                 
PERIOD BUT TOO SOON TO MODIFY EXTENDED GRIDS. GFS ADVERTISES STRONG             
H500 TROUGH EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT/MON WHILE EURO SHOWS            
LESS AMPLIFIED FEATURE. WITH SW FLOW IN PLACE WARM AND WET TREND TO             
PREVAIL. LOWER CONFIDENCE MON/TUE PERIOD SO HAVE NOT CHANGED PRECIP             
CHANCES FOR THIS PERIOD.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
REV                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ia                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
1039 AM CDT TUE JUN 7 2005                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE THUNDERSHOWER POTENTIAL                 
MAINLY EAST OF THE TURNPIKE THIS AFTERNOON.                                     
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP AND 700MB PROFILERS ARE INDICATING A                    
PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL WAVE PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS. THIS WAVE             
IS ACTUALLY SPARKING OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN MARION COUNTY. THE RUC                
315K THETA SURFACE ACTUALLY SHOWS THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASING             
ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE TURNPIKE THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE             
WAVE. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND                         
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.             
RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW ABOUT 500-700J/KG OF CAPE ABOVE THE LEVEL OF FREE            
CONVECTION WITH MARGINAL SHEAR. THEREFORE, I WOULD NOT ANTICIPATE               
ANY SEVERE STORMS.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT TUE JUN 7 2005/                          
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../349 AM CDT TUE JUN 7 2005/                              
TDY-TONIGHT                                                                     
HOT AND HUMID DAY ON TAP ACROSS KANSAS AS TEMPS SOAR WELL INTO THE              
90S THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NEXT NEXT VIGOROUS                
SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY ROTATING THROUGH WESTERN TROUGH AXIS ACROSS                
NEVADA. THIS WAVE IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO              
WYOMING LATER TDY. SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS             
WHICH SHOULD CAUSE SOME CONVERGENCE TAKE PLACE ALONG THE DRYLINE IN             
OUR NECK OF THE WOODS.  AS A RESULT, A FEW STORMS COULD DEVELOP LATE            
THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO OUR CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES THIS                   
EVENING. 700MB TEMPS WILL BE WARMER TODAY WHICH COULD CAP OFF THIS              
SCENARIO SO WILL ONLY HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCES. IF A FEW STORMS CAN             
BUST THE CAP THEN THEY WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE. ANY ACTIVITY THIS             
EVENING WOULD LIKELY DIMINISH BEFORE 1 AM.                                      
WED-THUR                                                                        
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ONCE AGAIN ON WED FOR                     
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO                  
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN CENTRAL KANSAS WED AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE            
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BECOMES FAVORABLE OVER             
THE REGION WED NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPMENT IN NORTHERN                  
KS/NEBR AS LOW LEVEL JET SUPPLIES THE LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT.              
MEANWHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS SHOULD STALL WED              
NIGHT, AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALOFT.               
THE ONLY WAY IT COULD TRAVEL FURTHER SOUTH WOULD COME FROM THE                  
DRIVING FORCE OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS VIA MCS ACTIVITY DEVELOPING                
FURTHER SOUTH THAN ANTICIPATED.                                                 
HEADING INTO THURSDAY, AGAIN THE KEY FOR PRECIP AREAS WILL BE TIED              
TO POSITIONING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY. ISENTROPIC               
LIFT INCREASES THURSDAY NIGHT BUT WHERE WILL IT BE MAXIMIZED ALONG              
THE LOW-MID LEVEL BOUNDARY IS STILL UNCERTAIN. MOST LIKELY                      
POSITIONING AT THIS JUNCTURE WOULD HAVE IT IN CENTRAL KS. AS A                  
RESULT WE RAISED POPS UP FOR THAT TIME FRAME. WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME            
HEAVY RAIN OVER CENTRAL KS THUR NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR              
THIS POSSIBILITY.                                                               
EXTENDED: FRI-MON                                                               
TROUGH AXIS MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY BUT DOES NOT CLEAR             
THE AREA UNTIL PERHAPS MONDAY. SO ITS REALLY HARD TO REMOVE POPS ALL            
TOGETHER UNDER THIS TYPE OF PATTERN. TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND OR             
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.                                                         
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD VERY WELL MIGRATE NORTH AND SOUTH OVER               
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH EVERY WAVE EJECTING OUT FROM TROUGH AXIS                
DURING THIS PERIOD. A ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SEEMS LIKELY, WITH                 
POSSIBLY SOME DECENT RAINFALL TOTALS OVER SOME OF OUR AREA BEFORE               
THIS UPPER SYSTEM FINALLY BREAKS DOWN.                                          
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    95  71  94  70 /  10  10  20  20                                
HUTCHINSON      96  70  92  69 /  10  20  30  30                                
NEWTON          95  71  93  70 /  10  10  20  20                                
ELDORADO        94  71  93  70 /  10  10  20  20                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   96  72  95  71 /  10  10  20  20                                
RUSSELL         97  68  88  65 /  10  20  30  40                                
GREAT BEND      97  69  89  66 /  10  20  30  30                                
SALINA          97  70  90  68 /  10  20  30  40                                
MCPHERSON       96  70  92  69 /  10  20  30  30                                
COFFEYVILLE     92  72  91  72 /  10  10  10  10                                
CHANUTE         91  72  90  71 /  10  10  10  10                                
IOLA            90  72  90  71 /  10  10  10  20                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
COX/JAKUB                                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1045 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST ISSUES OVERNIGHT ARE PROGRESS OF CURRENT CONVECTION AND               
POTENTIAL OF NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NIGHT.                       
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE WRN            
CONUS. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS ROTATING NE ACROSS WY. JUST DOWNSTREAM            
OF THAT SHORTWAVE IS A RATHER PRONOUNCED MIDLEVEL RIDGE THAT IS                 
MOVING INTO MN. CLOSER TO HOME...A SHORTWAVE EXTENDING FROM WRN                 
ONTARIO ACROSS WRN UPPER MI HAS AIDED SVR STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS              
WI THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS BEEN MUCH MORE                   
FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SVR CONVECTION OVER UPPER MI (40-50KT)...               
CAPE DROPS OFF SIGNIFICANTLY FROM NRN WI INTO UPPER MI. LWR CAPE                
COMBINED WITH EXTENSIVE CONVECTION OVER WI INTERCEPTING TRANSPORT OF            
ELEVATED CAPE INTO UPPER MI HAS LARGELY KEPT CONVECTION UNDER                   
CONTROL HERE.                                                                   
AS SHORTWAVE CONTINUES ENE...LOW-LEVEL JET WILL WEAKEN/VEER AND                 
UPPER MI SHOULD GET INTO GENERAL SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN THE WAKE OF               
SHORTWAVE OVERNIGHT. LACK OF PCPN UPSTREAM BEHIND SHORTWAVE SEEMS TO            
SUPPORT EXPECTED DRYING TREND. CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST AND                    
CONTINUE DEVELOPING TO THE S NEAR SFC WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY               
ACROSS SRN MN INTO CNTRL WI. MEANWHILE...STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING               
INTO DAKOTAS WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET (35-45KT PER            
RUC) ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO MN LATE TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD FORCE SFC              
BOUNDARY ACROSS WI TO START LIFTING BACK TO THE N WITH CONVECTION               
SPREADING/DEVELOPING N AGAIN AS ELEVATED CAPE GREATER THAN 2000J/KG             
SURGES N INTO MN. GIVEN PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND SHORTWAVE MOVING            
ACROSS THE AREA NOW AND LOCATION OF LOW-LEVEL JET LATE TONIGHT...               
BELIEVE IT WILL PROBABLY BE AFTER SUNRISE BEFORE ANY NEW ORGANIZED              
CONVECTION REACHES W/CNTRL UPPER MI. SINCE GFS/NAM SHOW LOW-LEVEL               
JET WEAKENING AS IT TRANSLATES E WED MORNING...APPEARS THREAT OF SVR            
STORMS WED MORNING WOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...BUT NOT OUT OF THE               
QUESTION. FOR THE OVERNIGHT...WILL GO WITH A DIMINISHING TREND ON               
SHRA/TSRA...BUT WILL ONLY END PCPN OVER THE NW AND N. WILL MAINTAIN             
PCPN MENTION OVER THE S IN CASE SHRA/TSRA ARE QUICKER TO                        
MOVE/DEVELOP BACK TO THE N.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ROLFSON                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
718 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2005                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
CEILING AND VISIBILITY WILL BE VFR FOR AVIATION INTERESTS TONIGHT               
AND WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE MVFR CEILING AND IFR VISIBILITY            
IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WITH AT LEAST A CHANCE OF STORMS             
ON WEDNESDAY.                                                                   
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED OVER LAND AREAS OF NORTHERN             
LOWER AND OVER WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS HAVE SHOWN A TENDENCY TO AT LEAST             
MAINTAIN INTENSITY FOR A WHILE AS THEY PASS OVER THE LAKES. THIS IS             
EVIDENCE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE TONIGHT.                
WITH THIS IN MIND, EXPECT THE STORMS TO OUR WEST TO PERSIST, NEW                
STORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE OUR WAY, AND EVEN SOME DEVELOPMENT                   
OVERHEAD AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.                                   
THE KEY TO STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IN HOW THE LOW LEVEL FLOW                  
REACTS TO THE SURFACE LOW/TROF DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN GREAT                 
LAKES TONIGHT. EXPECT THIS LOW TO INCREASE THE FLOW AROUND 850 MB               
AND INCREASE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. WHILE THE LOW              
LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST, SW FLOW AROUND 25 KTS AND                    
ACCOMPANYING LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE CAPABLE OF                     
DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED STORMS AROUND SE              
MICHIGAN.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM... TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ...ISSUED AT 355 PM TODAY                  
IN GENERAL...WE REMAIN ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH THAT IS               
ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.  THIS PROVIDES A SOUTHWEST FLOW               
REGIME ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE NATION WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TO             
PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW (AND INTO              
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS WELL).  AT THE SURFACE, QUASI-STATIONARY                 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS IN PLACE JUST NORTH OF THE BAY-MIDLAND COUNTY              
BORDER WITH LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT INTO THE THUMB AND LAKE HURON               
ADJACENT COUNTIES (ST CLAIR AND LAKE ERIE ARE TOO WARM NOW TO                   
SUPPORT LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND LIKELY TOMORROW).                     
UPSTREAM CONVECTION ACROSS WISCONSIN AND NEAR CHICAGO REMAINS THE               
PROBLEMATIC ASPECT TO THIS SHORT TERM FORECAST.                                 
IT APPEARS THE LATEST RUC IS CAPTURING FEATURES ACROSS THOSE                    
CONVECTIVE AREAS WHICH BRINGS INTO THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION                   
TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER.  WE DO NOT EXPECT THE                           
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO MOVE THAT MUCH OVERNIGHT AND H2O VAPOR             
LOOP ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A WEAK IMPULSE NEAR KANSAS CITY TRACKING                 
NORTHEAST.  CORFIDI VECTORS POINT TOWARD 2 TRACKS...THE NORTHERN                
CONVECTION TO TRACK DUE EAST AND THE SOUTHERN CONVECTION TO TRACK               
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.  WITH MAIN LOW LEVEL JET AXIS TO REMAIN WEST OF            
THE CWA... IT WOULD BE HARD TO SEE THIS CONVECTION SURVIVE MUCH INTO            
THE REGION.  HOWEVER, ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH TO               
WARRANT A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION FOR THE ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT.  DO NOT             
EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH WEAKENING WIND FIELD             
ALOFT, BUT PRECIP LOADING COULD PROVIDE WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS.                   
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH 60S THROUGHOUT.                    
INTO WEDNESDAY, RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM ANY CONVECTION AND LAKE                
BREEZE DEVELOPMENTS WILL BRING ABOUT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION.             
STILL THE BEST FORCING AND LOW LEVEL JET POSITION WILL REMAIN                   
UPSTREAM.  SPEAKING OF UPSTREAM...TEMPERATURES HAVE ONCE AGAIN                  
CLIMBED TO NEAR 90F WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW-MID 60S.  HEAT                  
INDICES WILL LIKELY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF              
OF THE CWA AND AWAY FROM THE NEARSHORE WATERS.                                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
NOT MUCH TO LATCH ONTO WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AS FAR AS TIMING              
BEST PERIODS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT                
WILL RELY HEAVILY ON IMPULSES MOVING OUT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS               
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WHICH MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH.               
THE EASTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH WILL            
HELP KEEP THE TRACK OF THE STRONGEST STORMS LOCATED TO OUR WEST AND             
NORTHWEST.                                                                      
HAVE LEFT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING             
AREA WIDE TO COVER ANY LINGERING DIURNAL CONVECTION. A WEAK COLD                
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST BUT WILL STALL AS IT                 
APPROACHES EASTERN MICHIGAN AFTER MIDNIGHT. REMOVED THUNDERSTORMS               
ACROSS ALL BUT NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT AS COLD FRONT IS                 
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NORTH OVER CENTRAL MICHIGAN. WILL                
CONTINUE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY MORNING NEAR TRI-CITIES               
FOR ANY REMNANTS OF THIS FRONT.                                                 
THURSDAY WILL START AS A NICE DAY WITH CLOUD COVER INCREASING BY                
AFTERNOON WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE BEST LOCATION                   
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG THE BOUNDARY DRAPED                  
ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES TOWARDS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE THE COOL             
FRONT STALLED THE NIGHT BEFORE. CAPE VALUES WILL PEAK AROUND 2500               
J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL LEAVE POPS LOW FOR NOW AS WE ARE                
STILL UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND LACKING DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FOR              
THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG STORMS. WILL NOT RULE OUT THE CHANCE OF               
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS BUT RIGHT NOW THEY LOOK LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN              
WEST OF THE AREA.                                                               
BOTH THE 00Z/07 ECMWF AND 00Z/12Z GFS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE             
EJECTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST ON FRIDAY.                
INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP TO TRANSPORT                  
ABUNDANT MOISTURE NORTH ACROSS MICHIGAN WITH PW'S APPROACHING 2.00              
INCHES. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR FRIDAY WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND            
A BETTER CHANCE TO RECEIVE SOME RAIN SHOWERS. SCATTERED                         
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FRIDAY WITH CAPES STILL AROUND 1000             
J/KG.  TEMPS WILL LOWER A FEW DEGREE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND                
WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY.                            
THE MAIN FORECAST QUESTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND                 
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE WHEN THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED                 
STATES WILL WEAKEN LEADING TOWARDS A MORE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER                   
PATTERN. THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATES WE WILL BE IN A MORE ZONAL FLOW BY             
SUNDAY WHILE THE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. FEEL THAT THIS            
TRANSITIONAL PERIOD WHEN THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN              
PLAINS FINALLY MAKES ITS WAY NORTH...MAY BE WHEN WE ARE MOST LIKELY             
TO RECEIVE SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. IT IS TOO FAR OUT AT THIS               
POINT TO GET THE TIMING RIGHT ON THAT SYSTEM THOUGH SO FOR NOW HAVE             
ADDED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO FORECAST ON MONDAY.                            
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...BT                                                                   
SHORT TERM...BGM                                                                
LONG TERM...KEK                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
400 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WEATHER                
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.                                                          
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/ETA SHOWING A LARGE LOW CENTER EMBEDDED             
IN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ANOTHER CLOSED LOW IS             
OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES             
NORTHWEST TO A HIGH OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. A WEAK SHORTWAVE                
MOVING THROUGH THIS RIDGE IS OVER WESTERN U.P. SURFACE ANALYSIS                 
INDICATE A LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A COLD FRONT                    
EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. A WARM FRONT STRECHES              
OUT AHEAD OF THIS LOW THROUGH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND CENTRAL LOWER               
MICHIGAN. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORM ARE FIRING OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN              
MOVING EAST.                                                                    
THE SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN U.P. WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE WEST END                  
FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT AND ACROSS THE EASTERN U.P. AFTER                     
MIDNIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY               
WEDNESDAY MORNING DRAGGING THE WARM FRONT INTO NORTHERN                         
WISCONSIN...AND THE COLD FRONT INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND EASTERN                
DAKOTAS. GUIDANCE SHOWING THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR OVER            
THE CENTRAL U.P. THIS EVENING. 300K ISENTROPIC SHOWING ASCENT NORTH             
OF THE WARM FRONT WILL TRIGGER NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS               
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. MAX STRONG 850-500MB Q-VECTOR              
CONVERGENCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. MOISTURE                   
OVERRUNNING THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAINS. GFS/ETA HAS                
CAPE VALUES THIS EVENING AROUND 1500J/KG REACHING INTO THE IRON                 
RIVER AREA...TAPERING TO AROUND 400J/KG ALONG US 41. GFS HAS CAPE               
VALUES >1500J/KG REACHING INTO THE SOUTHERN U.P. BY LATE EVENING. A             
WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET MAX WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL U.P. THE STRONGEST            
U.P. LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL U.P. THIS EVENING.               
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE THIS EVENING AROUND MIDNIGHT ACROSS             
THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS.            
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE            
EJECTED OUT FROM THE BASE OF THIS LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST             
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AN 80 KT TO 100 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL SLIDE OVER             
THE DAKOTAS AND OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC. WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE               
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE STRONGEST DIVERGENCE WILL BE WEST AND            
NORTH OF THE AREA. MEAN SURFACE-500MB RH >80 PERCENT MOVING ACROSS              
THE AREA WILL FEED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA SO WILL              
KEEP THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL RACE             
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL                 
REACH SOUTHEAST MANITOBA AS THE COLD FRONT REACHES INTO WESTERN U.P.            
THUS THIS WOULD KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING.                           
TWO WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THOUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND             
THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON             
THURSDAY. IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND             
REFORM TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER SURFACE            
TROUGH STRETCH FROM WESTERN WISCONSIN SOUTHWEST INTO OKLAHOMA BY 12Z            
FRIDAY.                                                                         
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.            
THE SURFACE LOW AND ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BECOME MAINLY              
STATIONARY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE             
TO BE DRAWN INTO THE AREA. THUS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND               
THUNDERSTORMS GOING ON FRIDAY.                                                  
LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN CONUS WILL PUSH INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.             
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE U.P. FRIDAY NIGHT. THE                   
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN JAMES BAY DRAGGING THE COLD                 
FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL U.P. CYCLONIC FLOW AHEAD OVER A LOW OVER WEST            
TEXAS WILL DRAW MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. TOGETHER THESE                 
SHOULD GENERATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LONGWAVE             
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER WESTERN CONUS ON SATURDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK             
SHORTWAVES WILL PUSH THROUGH THE U.P. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH                    
MONDAY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL              
ONTARIO KEEPING THE COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI            
RIVER VALLEY SOUTHWEST INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE FLOW AHEAD OF              
THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...               
KEEPING THE POTENTIAL OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH                
SUNDAY NIGHT. A CANADIAN HIGH WILL PUSH THE LOW AND ACCOMPANYING                
COLD FRONT INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE NORTHERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY.              
THIS SHOULD END THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE                
AREA. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON             
TUESDAY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN                
WITH AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH INTO UPPER                      
MICHIGAN THUS THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL               
PUSH ACROSS THE U.P. ON TUESDAY.                                                
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DLG                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
355 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2005                                                       
.SHORT TERM... TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY                                            
IN GENERAL...WE REMAIN ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH THAT IS               
ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.  THIS PROVIDES A SOUTHWEST FLOW               
REGIME ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE NATION WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TO             
PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW (AND INTO              
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS WELL).  AT THE SURFACE, QUASI-STATIONARY                 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS IN PLACE JUST NORTH OF THE BAY-MIDLAND COUNTY              
BORDER WITH LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT INTO THE THUMB AND LAKE HURON               
ADJACENT COUNTIES (ST CLAIR AND LAKE ERIE ARE TOO WARM NOW TO                   
SUPPORT LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND LIKELY TOMORROW).                     
UPSTREAM CONVECTION ACROSS WISCONSIN AND NEAR CHICAGO REMAINS THE               
PROBLEMATIC ASPECT TO THIS SHORT TERM FORECAST.                                 
IT APPEARS THE LATEST RUC IS CAPTURING FEATURES ACROSS THOSE                    
CONVECTIVE AREAS WHICH BRINGS INTO THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION                   
TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER.  WE DO NOT EXPECT THE                           
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO MOVE THAT MUCH OVERNIGHT AND H2O VAPOR             
LOOP ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A WEAK IMPULSE NEAR KANSAS CITY TRACKING                 
NORTHEAST.  CORFIDI VECTORS POINT TOWARD 2 TRACKS...THE NORTHERN                
CONVECTION TO TRACK DUE EAST AND THE SOUTHERN CONVECTION TO TRACK               
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.  WITH MAIN LOW LEVEL JET AXIS TO REMAIN WEST OF            
THE CWA... IT WOULD BE HARD TO SEE THIS CONVECTION SURVIVE MUCH INTO            
THE REGION.  HOWEVER, ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH TO               
WARRANT A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION FOR THE ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT.  DO NOT             
EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH WEAKENING WIND FIELD             
ALOFT, BUT PRECIP LOADING COULD PROVIDE WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS.                   
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH 60S THROUGHOUT.                    
INTO WEDNESDAY, RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM ANY CONVECTION AND LAKE                
BREEZE DEVELOPMENTS WILL BRING ABOUT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION.             
STILL THE BEST FORCING AND LOW LEVEL JET POSITION WILL REMAIN                   
UPSTREAM.  SPEAKING OF UPSTREAM...TEMPERATURES HAVE ONCE AGAIN                  
CLIMBED TO NEAR 90F WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW-MID 60S.  HEAT                  
INDICES WILL LIKELY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF              
OF THE CWA AND AWAY FROM THE NEARSHORE WATERS.                                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
NOT MUCH TO LATCH ONTO WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AS FAR AS TIMING              
BEST PERIODS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL RELY      
HEAVILY ON IMPULSES MOVING OUT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN             
GREAT LAKES...WHICH MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH. THE EASTERN               
CONUS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH WILL HELP KEEP              
THE TRACK OF THE STRONGEST STORMS LOCATED TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST.            
HAVE LEFT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING             
AREA WIDE TO COVER ANY LINGERING DIURNAL CONVECTION. A WEAK COLD                
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST BUT WILL STALL AS IT                 
APPROACHES EASTERN MICHIGAN AFTER MIDNIGHT. REMOVED THUNDERSTORMS               
ACROSS ALL BUT NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT AS COLD FRONT IS                 
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NORTH OVER CENTRAL MICHIGAN. WILL                
CONTINUE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY MORNING NEAR TRI-CITIES               
FOR ANY REMNANTS OF THIS FRONT.                                                 
THURSDAY WILL START AS A NICE DAY WITH CLOUD COVER INCREASING BY                
AFTERNOON WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE BEST LOCATION                   
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG THE BOUNDARY DRAPED                  
ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES TOWARDS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE THE COOL             
FRONT STALLED THE NIGHT BEFORE. CAPE VALUES WILL PEAK AROUND 2500               
J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL LEAVE POPS LOW FOR NOW AS WE ARE                
STILL UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND LACKING DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FOR              
THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG STORMS. WILL NOT RULE OUT THE CHANCE OF               
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS BUT RIGHT NOW THEY LOOK LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN              
WEST OF THE AREA.                                                               
BOTH THE 00Z/07 ECMWF AND 00Z/12Z GFS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE             
EJECTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST ON FRIDAY.                
INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP TO TRANSPORT                  
ABUNDANT MOISTURE NORTH ACROSS MICHIGAN WITH PW'S APPROACHING 2.00              
INCHES. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR FRIDAY WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND            
A BETTER CHANCE TO RECEIVE SOME RAIN SHOWERS. SCATTERED                         
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FRIDAY WITH CAPES STILL AROUND 1000             
J/KG.  TEMPS WILL LOWER A FEW DEGREE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND                
WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY.                            
THE MAIN FORECAST QUESTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND                 
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE WHEN THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED                 
STATES WILL WEAKEN LEADING TOWARDS A MORE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER                   
PATTERN. THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATES WE WILL BE IN A MORE ZONAL FLOW BY             
SUNDAY WHILE THE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. FEEL THAT THIS            
TRANSITIONAL PERIOD WHEN THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN              
PLAINS FINALLY MAKES ITS WAY NORTH...MAY BE WHEN WE ARE MOST LIKELY             
TO RECEIVE SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. IT IS TOO FAR OUT AT THIS               
POINT TO GET THE TIMING RIGHT ON THAT SYSTEM THOUGH SO FOR NOW HAVE             
ADDED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO FORECAST ON MONDAY.                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
DIFFICULT TAF FORECAST PERIOD AS WE MONITOR UPSTREAM CONVECTION.                
NUMERICALLY, LATEST NAM SUGGESTS AN MCS DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTHERN                
INDIANA OVERNIGHT THEN SPREADS INTO THE REGION.  MEANWHILE, THE GFS             
SUGGESTS CURRENT ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE                      
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE TRI CITIES AND THUMB.  WITH SO             
MUCH UNCERTAINTY, WE WILL LEAVE A PROB30 WITHIN THE TAFS FOR ALL                
SITES STARTING AT 08Z.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...BGM                                                                
LONG TERM...KEK                                                                 
AVIATION...BGM                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1145 AM EDT TUE JUN 7 2005                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON ARE SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL/STRENGTH.             
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED WRN CONUS TROF WITH A                     
DOWNSTREAM RDG FROM THE SE CONUS TOWARD THE UPR MS VALLEY AND                   
MANITOBA. AN UPSTREAM SHRTWV WAS LOCATED OVER WRN MN. AT THE SFC...A            
WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW PRES OVER NE SE TO NEAR KMSP-KEAU TO               
JUST NORTH OF KGRB. LEFTOVER MCS WAS STILL PROPAGATING EASTWARD                 
THROUGH WRN WI ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHERE SFC-H8                   
INSTABILITY WAS GREATEST...MUCAPES NEAR 2K J/KG. EARLIER BAND                   
OF SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA  OVER WRN LK SUPERIOR INTO NW UPR MI HAD             
DISSIPATED AS SUPPORTING 800-700 FRONTOGENESIS HAD WEAKENED.                    
OTHERWISE...ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND BLOWOFF FROM            
THE MCS HAD BROUGHT CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF WRN UPR MI.                             
SATELLITE RADAR TRENDS AND POSITION OF FRONTAL BNRY AND LOW LEVEL               
INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT THE WI MCS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EASTWARD               
THIS AFTERNOON. REMNANTS MAY CLIP FAR S UPR MI VCNTY KMNM BUT MOST              
OF THIS COMPLEX SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE CWA. AS THE WRN MN SHRTWV                
MOVES EASTWARD...THE NAM/RUC SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP             
JUST UPSTREAM AND MOVE THROUGH THE W HLF OF UPR MI LATE THIS                    
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF THE MCS TO THE                 
SOUTH WHICH MAY INHIBIT NORTHWARD SURGE OF INSTABILITY MAY HAMPER OR            
DELAY MCS DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. NEVERTHELESS...THE FORCING WITH             
THE SHRTWV ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL SUPPLY OF UNSTABLE AIR JUST TO THE              
SOUTH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE ANOTHER BATCH OF CONVECTION.                 
MODIFIED RUC SOUNDING WOULD GIVE 850 MB BASED CAPE AOA 1500 J/KG AND            
700-500 LAPSE RATES FCST NEAR 7.5-8.0 C/KM. WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR               
VALUES TO AROUND 40 KT...ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION THIS EVENING               
COULD SUPPORT SOME LARGE HAIL EVEN THOUGH FCST FREEZING AND WET-BULB            
ZERO LEVELS ARE RELATIVELY HIGH AT 13K/11K FT. THE BEST POTENTIAL               
FOR DAMAGING WIND WOULD BE NEAR THE WI BORDER WHERE CONVECTION WOULD            
HAVE BEST CHANCE OF BEING MORE SURFACE BASED. SO...UPDATE WILL                  
CONFINE SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSTMS DURING THE EARLY AND MID AFTERNOON             
TO THE WEST THIRD WITH SHRA/TSRA INTO CNTRL UPR MI THIS EVENING.                
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JLB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1045 AM CDT TUE JUN 7 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
REMNANTS OF OVERNGT AND EARLY MRNG MCS HAVE CLEARED MUCH OF THE FA              
/STRETCHING THRU BARRON...DUNN...AND PEPIN COUNTIES/...AND SHUD BE              
EAST OF OUR WI COUNTIES BY 1630Z. STRONGEST CELLS IN THE LINE WILL BE           
APPROACHING AREAS FROM CHIPPEWA FALLS TO EAU CLAIRE. ALTHOUGH THE               
SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE LINE HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF              
HOURS...SOME CONCERN STILL EXISTS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND               
GUSTS WITH THE ACTIVITY MOVING INTO SRN CHIPPEWA AND EAU CLAIRE                 
COUNTIES WITH 14Z LAPS ANALYSES SHOWING DCAPE VALUES APPROACHING                
1000 J/KG IN THESE COUNTIES. ELEVATED NATURE OF THE STORMS AND                  
REASONABLY DEEP WARM LAYER BETWEEN 800-850 MB EVIDENT ON THE 12Z                
KMPX SOUNDING MAY LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL HOWEVER.                                 
AS THIS COMPLEX EXITS THE FA...THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE SEVERE                   
POTENTIAL THIS EVENING AND OVERNGT. NEXT S/W TO AFFECT THE AREA IS              
CURRENTLY EVIDENT OVER NRN UT ON W/V IMAGERY. THIS WILL SPUR ANOTHER            
OVERNGT AND EARLY MRNG MCS THAT...ACCORDING TO THE 12Z NAM AND RUC              
PROGS...SHUD AFFECT PRIMARILY THE NRN HALF OF THE FA...WITH THE NOSE            
OF A 50-55 KT LLJ ONCE AGAIN SETTING UP OVER SRN MN TNGT.                       
PRIOR TO THIS OCCURRING...HOWEVER...CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO                  
INCREASE DURING THE AFTN ALONG A SFC TROF CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM              
SWRN NE TO W CNTRL MN...AS UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX MOVES NE OF THE                
AREA AND ANOTHER APPROACHES. WITH SKIES CLEARING OVER THE SWRN HALF             
OF THE FA...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW STORMS COULD               
DEVELOP ALONG THE TROF LATE THIS AFTN. MOISTURE IS ALREADY                      
RECOVERING ACROSS PARTS OF WRN AND S CNTRL MN...WITH LATEST SFC OBS             
INDICATING DEW POINTS FROM THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 /WITH 70F AT KFBL             
AND KAEL/. WRN MN LOOKS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA...WITH THE                   
PROXIMITY OF THE SFC LOW...THE S/W TROF...INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR               
DESTABILIZATION DUE TO DECREASED CLOUD COVER. FAIRLY WARM LOWER                 
LEVEL TEMPS EVIDENT ON LOCAL 12Z RAOBS...AS WELL AS FCST NAM BUFR               
SOUNDINGS...DECREASE THIS POTENTIAL ACROSS OUR AREA...ESPECIALLY                
WITH BEST FORCING REMAINING TO THE W UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING.                   
HOWEVER...ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE                   
SEVERE...WITH 40 TO 50 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR...AND STEEP MID-LEVEL                
LAPSE RATES.                                                                    
FYI...KMPX WILL BE SENDING UP AN 18Z SOUNDING.                                  
KAT                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 430 AM CDT TUE JUN 7 2005)                           
NOT MUCH TIME FOR DISCUSSION WITH SEVERE WEATHER GOING. STRONG WARM             
ADVECTION SHOULD CARRY CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF CWA BUT BEST                   
COVERAGE OVER CENTRAL MN AND EVENTUALLY INTO WEST CENTRAL WISC.                 
850MB WIND FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING MORNING SO DON'T SEE A BIG                 
INCREASE IN STRENGTH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD BE A BREAK             
IN THE ACTION THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL JET AIMS BACK WEST AT                 
SOUTH DAKOTA. WILL INCLUDE SEVERE MENTION IN WEST THIS EVENING AND              
TONIGHT AS NEW COMPLEX FORMS IN EASTERN DAKOTAS. SREF MODEL SHOWING             
BEST PROB OF HEAVY RAIN OVER EAST CENTRAL MN INTO WESTERN WI..JUST              
NORTH OF 576 THICKNESS. WILL HOLD OFF ON WATCH FOR NOW...BUT MENTION            
HEAVY RAIN.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
LONGER TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY                                             
AN ACTIVE PERIOD WEATHER WISE IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.             
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED WITH FLOW ALOFT               
REMAINING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE 00Z GFS MODEL INDICATES THREE LOW             
PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...FRIDAY                      
MORNING...SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN EACH CASE THE SOUTHERLY               
LOW LEVEL FLOW PRECEDING THE SYSTEM TAPS DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE                 
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES.                                             
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.MN...NONE.                                                                     
.WI...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION                                 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
1217 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...                                           
ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG AN AXIS JUST EAST OF             
SPRINGFIELD ALONG A MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS NOTED IN TIME-HEIGHT             
CROSS SECTION OF CONWAY PROFILER DATA. THE AIRMASS OVER SOUTH                   
CENTRAL MISSOURI REMAINS WEAKLY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPES AROUND 500                
J/KG. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP ON THE WESTERN            
FLANK OF THE CONVERGENCE AXIS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MUCH                 
NEEDED RAINFALL BEING THE PRIMARY "THREAT" WITH THIS ACTIVITY. HAVE             
INCREASED SHORT TERM POPS TO 70% IN THIS AREA.                                  
MEANWHILE...VERY STRONG HEATING CONTINUES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE             
CWA ALONG WITH MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. DEWPOINTS HAVE              
CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S OVER FAR SRN MO INTO                   
EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS. 12Z KSGF SOUNDING SHOWS AN ENVIRONMENT                
VERY CONDUCIVE TO DEEP CONVECTION WITH MODIFIED PARCELS FOR LOWER               
90S AND NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS SUPPORTING 2500 J/KG UNINHIBITED MLCAPE.              
NORMAN SOUNDING SHOWED IMPRESSIVE WARMING AT MID LEVELS AND EARLY               
FORECAST HAD SUGGESTED THAT CAPPING INVERSION WOULD OVERSPREAD THE              
REGION. HOWEVER...RUC AND NAM MID LEVEL FLOW TRAJECTORIES AND                   
THERMAL PROGS MAINTAIN THE IMPRESSIVE 800-700MB THERMAL GRADIENT                
OVER EASTERN KS/OK...KEEPING OUR ENTIRE CWA FREE OF MID LEVEL                   
CAPPING.                                                                        
AS FOR FORCING...A MYRIAD OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CERTAINLY LINGER                
OVER SRN MO FROM CONVECTION LAST EVENING AND THIS MORNING.                      
MEANWHILE...TWO STRONG CONVECTIVE INDUCED VORTICES FROM MCS ACTIVITY            
LAST EVENING WILL TRANSLATE FROM KS/OK INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.            
CONSIDERING ALREADY STRONG SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THESE WAVES AT             
THIS TIME...EXPECT THAT ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS THAN                     
YESTERDAY AND MORE WIDESPREAD IN AREAL COVERAGE. INITIATION COULD               
OCCUR AS EARLY AS 18Z OVER KS/MO BORDER AND MO/AR BORDER REGIONS.               
EFFECTIVE CLOUD BEARING SHEAR WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS...ALTHOUGH            
SOME INCREASE IS EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF MCV CIRCULATIONS.                  
STILL...STORMS WILL LARGELY BE OF THE PULSE VARIETY. STRONG                     
INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH A PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER ABOVE 600MB WILL                
PROMOTE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND A FEW SEVERE DOWNBURSTS. HAVE                
INCREASED POPS TO AROUND 40% FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA THIS                  
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS AROUND 90F STILL LOOKING KOSHER.                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH                
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING AROUND 10 KNOTS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES                
LOOK INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE THIS AFTERNOON AS AN INCREASINGLY MOIST             
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS BUILDS INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AHEAD OF AN                 
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES               
THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.                           
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME                 
HEATING AFTER SUNSET.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.MO...NONE.                                                                     
.KS...NONE.                                                                     
$$                                                                              
BOOKBINDER                                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE                                  
315 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST ISSUES SURROUND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES                
THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                                             
AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A WEAK MCV MOVING ACROSS EASTERN                
KANSAS. THE 12Z GFS AND NAM BOTH WEAKEN THIS FEATURE...HOWEVER THE              
RUC HAS BEEN PERSIST IN KEEPING IT AND EVEN DEVELOPING QPF FROM IT. A           
FEW SHOWERS CAN ALREADY BE SEEN DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF                   
NORTHWEST MISSOURI...SO IT SEEMS THE RUC IS HANDLING IT THE BEST.               
THERE IS ALSO SOME CONCERN THAT AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL THETA/E                    
ADVECTION MAY HELP TO DEVELOP A FEW STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA             
TONIGHT.                                                                        
THE BETTER CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA...           
PERHAPS MAKING IT INTO FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THE NOSE OF THE LOW               
LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY EARLY               
EVENING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ENHANCES ALONG A COLD                 
FRONT WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY ALREADY IN PLACE. THIS SHOULD HELP                 
STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY WORK THEIR             
WAY SOUTH ALONG THE COLD FRONT.  ONE LARGE NEGATIVE TO STORM                    
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA IS THE STRONG CAP WHICH IS EVIDENT ON THE             
18Z OAX SOUNDING. I AM NOT BOLD ENOUGH TO THINK THAT THE CAP WILL               
HOLD COMPLETELY...HOWEVER I DID DECREASE POPS A BIT IN THE NORTH                
EARLY THIS EVENING.                                                             
THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE                 
STALLING OUT FROM SOUTHWEST IOWA INTO CENTRAL KANSAS.  THIS SHOULD              
AGAIN BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS...AND WILL CARRY THE                  
HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTH NEAR THE FRONT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.             
THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA AND MOVES BACK NORTH             
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  IN FACT...IT APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THE FORECAST                
PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO SEE BOUNDARIES WANDERING ACROSS THE                     
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH MCS DEVELPMENT A POSSIBLITY.  THE PLACEMENT OF              
THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES WILL BE KEY IN TRYING TO NAIL DOWN THE BEST            
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE LATER PERIODS.  FOR NOW WILL CARRY A                
GENERAL 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE            
EXTENDED DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE THE BEST FORCING WILL BE               
LOCATED AT DURING ANY GIVEN PERIOD. OVERALL IT APPEARS THE THE                  
HIGHEST CHANCES SHOULD BE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR NIGHT TIME HOURS.            
HAVE KEPT NEXT TUESDAY DRY FOR NOW SINCE THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT                
AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TO BUILD WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN BEHIND A           
COLD FRONT.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KING                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   ne                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
1009 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                
UPDATES EARLIER THIS EVENING REFLECTED GREATER COVERAGE OF                      
CONVECTIVE RAINS ACROSS THE CWA.  RAIN AND WIDELY SCATTERED/ISOLATED            
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS WITH THE              
RUC SHOWING A MORE STABLE AIRMASS OVERNIGHT THAN THE PREVIOUS                   
NIGHT.  WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE ON THE GROUND AND NEAR SATURATION OF             
THE SURFACE LAYER...WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW STRATUS IS EXPECT AFTER              
MIDNIGHT TO AROUND DAYBREAK.  -RFG                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 245 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2005)                                              
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...                                    
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES FROM PRIOR                   
CONVECTION AND ROUGHLY IN THE ZONE OF A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST                  
SYNOPTIC SURFACE BOUNDARY. AS OF THIS TIME CELLS ARE GENERALLY                  
DEVELOPING AND DYING AFTER CREATING MORE CONVECTION ON THE                      
THUNDERSTORM GUST FRONTS. ANY PERSISTENT CELL COULD BECOME A FLOOD              
THREAT.                                                                         
PERSISTENCE WILL LARGELY BE THE FORECAST TREND BUT WITH A MINOR                 
COOLING TREND IN AFTERNOON HIGHS. GFS 850 MILLBAR WINDS MORE SOUTH              
THAN THE ETA/NAM AND THIS PULLS MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AIR COLUMN               
AND HELPS TO BUMP THE GFS FORECAST POPS INTO THE LIKELY RANGE                   
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS VERY LITTLE TO ACT AS A TRIGGER OTHER             
THAN AFTERNOON HEATING AND WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE. LOSS             
OF THE SYNOPTIC SURFACE BOUNDARY FOR WEDNESDAY ALSO A FACTOR.                   
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL SEE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH WEAK SOUTH               
FLOW AROUND THE OFFSHORE SURFACE HIGH.                                          
ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE WEAK... ENOUGH TIME WILL PASS TO ADVECT IN COOLER            
AIR FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND INITIATE A WEAK COOLING TREND IN HIGHS.              
HAZE AND INCREASED AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO AID THE COOLING              
TREND. LOWS SHOULD NOT STRAY FAR FROM 70 DEGREES.                               
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                         
A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WILL BE USED THIS PERIOD AS THE WESTERN                  
ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE REGION.            
THE RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL GIVE             
DIURNAL POPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE WEST THAN THE EAST AROUND THE               
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL BE 85 TO 90             
WITH LOWS 65 TO 70.                                                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES EXIST ACROSS THE AREA FROM YESTERDAY'S                      
CONVECTION AND FROM DIFFERENTIAL HEATING THIS MORNING. THESE WILL BE            
THE FOCUS OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE SHOULD             
BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT VCTS AT ALL SITES. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE                
PAST SEVERAL DAYS...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE EAST                 
BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z...WITH IFR VIS AND LIFR CIGS AT RDU/FAY/RWI.                
THIS SHOULD BE SLOW TO LIFT IN THE MORNING...BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z.               
GSO AND INT SHOULD AGAIN HAVE MVFR FOG FOR A FEW HOURS.                         
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...RFG                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
955 AM EDT TUE JUN 7 2005                                                       
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...                                  
SOUNDING AT GREENSBORO UNCHANGED THICKNESS WISE FROM 24 HOURS AGO               
WITH PRESSURE SURFACES DROPPING IN LOCKSTEP. ETA/NAM IS SHOWING A               
SLIGHT DROP IN BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY OVER MONDAY.               
RUC MODEL IS MORE PERSISTENT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAN MONDAY AND            
EXPECT CLOUD EROSION IN THE EAST FROM THE EDGES AND OUR SOUTHEAST               
MOST PARTS CLEARING LAST. ALL THIS SHOULD TEMPER TEMPERATURES A                 
LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL RISK A SLIGHT TRIM AND HOPE FOR THE              
BEST.                                                                           
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALSO LOOKS SIMILAR...WIDELY                     
SCATTERED AT BEST. SURFACE BOUNDARY ROUGHLY ALONG HIGHWAY ONE AND               
HIGHER INSTABILITY IN OUR NORTHEAST SUGGEST A SLIGHT NOD TOWARD                 
THESE AREAS AS BEING FAVORED FOR CONVECTION.                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 230 AM EDT TUE JUN 7 2005)                                              
SYNOPSIS...                                                                     
WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY              
AS PERSISTENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS FIXED ALONG THE            
ATLANTIC COAST. SURGE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE STATE            
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS ATLANTIC SURFACE ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS                   
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE MIDATLANTIC COAST.                                         
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                          
TODAY...                                                                        
LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT REMAINING CONVECTION HAS FINALLY              
RAN OUT OF STEAM. THE STORMS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH LEFTOVER OUTFLOW              
BOUNDARIES AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A                     
SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEST DETECTED IN THE LOWEST 5 TO 7 THOUSAND FEET.              
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS APT TO FIRE AGAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL                   
PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS LATE MORNING AND              
EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS EAST. THE INCREASED                      
CLOUDINESS AND EARLIER ONSET OF RAIN COULD POTENTIALLY COOL                     
TEMPERATURES 1 TO 3 DEGREES...DESPITE NEARLY IDENTICAL LOW LEVEL                
THICKNESSES OF MONDAY.                                                          
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...                                                       
RESURGENCE OF ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN SURGE OF                    
ATLANTIC MOISTURE...FURTHER MOISTENING AN ALREADY MOIST AIRMASS.                
PW'S CLIMB TO 1.75" TO 2.0" WITH AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT ALONG THE                 
HIGHER TERRAINS IN WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. LOCALLY HEAVY                 
RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT WITH HIGH                    
PRECIPITABLE WATERS AND A LIGHT 850 TO 700 MILLIBAR MEAN FLOW. THE              
SOUTHEAST MARINE INFLOW SHOULD RESULT IN BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKY                 
COVERAGE AND COOLER THICKNESSES...BRINGING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES                 
CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY.                                                          
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...                                    
ATLANTIC RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD WITH WEAK SURFACE               
PATTERN THROUGHOUT. DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE A DAILY THREAT                   
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...LOWS 65 TO 70.                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
WITH CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OVER THE                 
NORTHERN TAF SITES WESTWARD... HAVE KEPT A VFR CEILING FOR THE                  
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AT INT/GSO... WHICH MAY KEEP CEILINGS AND                
VISIBILITIES FROM PLUMMETING TO IFR OR LIFR TOWARD DAYBREAK...                  
BUT WITH THE LOCALIZED EVENING RAIN IN THIS AREA WILL NEED TO KEEP A            
CLOSE EYE ON CONDITIONS THROUGH DAWN. AT FAY HAVE OPTED TO FOLLOW               
PERSISTENCE AND CARRY AROUND A 2 HOUR PERIOD OF LIFR CONDITIONS                 
AROUND SUNRISE FOLLOWED BY LIFTING CEILINGS TO UNRESTRICTED BY 1330Z            
BUT WITH LINGERING MVFR HAZE. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF                        
CUMULONIMBUS IN THE INT/GSO/RDU TAFS AFTER EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...            
TO INTRODUCE THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS IN THE REGION. WINDS LIGHT               
AND VARIABLE AT 7 KNOTS OR LESS. -GIH                                           
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
827 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2005                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED GRIDS TO REMOVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS WESTERN                  
SECTIONS OF FA. FEW STORMS TRIED TO DEVELOP AROUND LBB EARLY                    
THIS EVENING BUT WITH NO LUCK.   MAJORITY OF EVENING WILL BE                    
PLEASANT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS.                    
RUC AND ETA RH FIELDS SUGGEST SOME LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS                 
SOUTHERN LOCATIONS BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.                                    
&&                                                                              
SIX                                                                             
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 250 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2005)                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
DRYLINE AND SFC HEATING MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME THE CAP FOR               
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF FA                 
TONITE. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE DUE TO                 
THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS EAST OF THE DRYLINE. A WEAK FRONT WILL                     
APPROACH THE AREA TONITE AND MAY MOVE INTO NW PORTIONS OF CWA                   
BEFORE STALLING OUT. DRYLINE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE                     
CENTRAL/EASTERN PANHANDLES AGAIN ON WED. TSTMS MAY DEVELOP                      
ALONG/NEAR THE FRONT OR DRYLINE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS                   
NW/NORTH CENTRAL OK NEAR THE BNDRYS. FRONT WILL THEN LIFT BACK                  
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE WED/WED NITE. CONVECTIVE INITIATION                  
WILL CONT TO BE POSSIBLE THU AFTN/EVENING WITH STORMS DEVELOPING                
ALONG/NEAR THE DRYLINE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE                
EASTERN TX PANHANDLE.                                                           
LATE THIS WEEK UPR LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SW U.S...WITH              
SHORTWAVES MOVING THRU THE SW FLOW. TSTMS WILL CONT TO BE POSSIBLE              
FRI-SUN...WITH SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND BNDRY/S NEAR             
THE FA. MAIN TROUGH/UPR LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL               
U.S. LATE THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS DIFFER NEXT WEEK...              
WITH GFS INDICATING AN UPR RIDGE BUILDING OVR THE AREA. STILL                   
UNCERTAINTIES WHERE BEST CHANCE AND EXTENT OF STORMS WILL BE IN THE             
EXTENDED SO HAVE NOT MADE ANY MAJOR CHANGES ATTM...WITH SLIGHT                  
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA.                                             
&&                                                                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
06/99                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ok                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
1029 AM EDT TUE JUN 7 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                
WILL ISSUE ZONE UPDATE TO REMOVE REFERENCE TO EARLY MORNING FOG.                
LATEST SATELLITE PIX SHOWS FOG/STRATUS OVER FORECAST AREA                       
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.                   
AIRMASS REMAINS HUMID AND UNSTABLE TO TRIGGER WIDELY SCATTERED                  
DIURNAL CONVECTION. RUC SHOWS SHORTWAVE TRIGGERS EAST AND WEST OF               
OUR AREA...BUT A FEW PULSE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG.                          
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 219 AM EDT TUE JUN 7 2005)                                              
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                          
WV LOOP SHOWS THAT 500 MB SHORT WAVE MEANDERING SLOWLY NORTHEAST                
OVER MS/AL WAS QUITE ACTIVE CONVECTIVELY ON MONDAY. SOME OF THIS                
CONVECTION MADE IT INTO THE UPSTATE OF SC WITH A FEW ISOLATED                   
CELLS INTO CENTRAL SC AND THE CSRA OF GA. EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME               
TODAY WITH PERHAPS SOMEWHAT BETTER COVERAGE INTO CENTRAL SC/CSRA                
AS WAVE MOVES A BIT CLOSER. HOWEVER PERSISTENT BERMUDA UPPER RIDGE              
THAT HAS BUILT WESTWARD INTO THE SERN US COASTAL REGION WANTS TO                
DEFLECT THIS WAVE MORE TO THE NORTH. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE              
POPS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE. MAX               
TEMP GUIDANCE IS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS                 
WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S. WILL GO CLOSE TO CONSENSUS MOS                 
FOR MAX/MIN.                                                                    
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...                                    
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE AREA THROUGHT THE              
EXTENDED PERIOD. IF THIS IS THE CASE...DIURNAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY              
WILL BE INHIBITED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE                    
NORMAL WITH THIS SCENARIO.                                                      
AVIATION...                                                                     
VERY MOIST AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA                 
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING                 
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE STRATUS CEILINGS BELOW 1000            
FEET 07-12Z THIS MORNING WITH VISIBILITIES AT OR BELOW 3 MILES.                 
LOCAL VISIBILITIES WILL BE LESS THAN ONE MILE. CONDITIONS SHOULD                
IMPROVE TO MVFR AFTER 15Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND            
VARIABLE.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SC...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
24                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX                                      
833 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2005                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MID LEVEL CAP WAS STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP CONVECTION FROM FORMING ON              
THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN. ONE            
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DID DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN PECOS COUNTY...BUT HAS              
SINCE DIMINISHED. RADAR IS INDICATING NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT              
JUST EAST OF RIO GRANDE VILLAGE IN MEXICO...BUT NOTHING IN TEXAS AS             
OF 0125Z. WILL LEAVE IN ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH MIDNIGHT TO COVER               
POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST BREWSTER OR TERRELL COUNTIES              
AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS. HAVE REMOVED THUNDERSTORMS FROM            
THE FORECAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. DEEP MID LEVEL                   
SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR INDICATED ON WATER VAPOR WILL LIKELY KEEP SKIES              
CLEAR ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA OVERNIGHT.               
THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY INCREASE ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND             
TRANS PECOS REGIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH BROKEN/OVERCAST DECK OF               
LOW CLOUDS SPREADING NORTH INTO THESE REGIONS BY EARLY TUESDAY                  
MORNING...AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS A BIT TO REFLECT THESE                
EXPECTED TRENDS. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.                       
21                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 216 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2005/                          
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.               
VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE LOW LEVELS TODAY EAST OF             
THE DRYLINE WHICH WAS NEAR AN ARTESIA TO PECOS TO BIG BEND LINE AT              
16Z THIS MORNING.  DRYLINE WAS SHARPENING UP AT THAT TIME...AND WILL            
CONTINUE TO SHARPEN AS GOOD MIXING TAKES PLACE WEST OF THE DRYLINE              
BRINGING WEST WINDS TO THE SURFACE WHICH WILL MIX/ADVECT THE DRYLINE            
TO THE EAST.  DO NOT EXPECT DRYLINE TO MAKE MUCH MORE EASTERN                   
PROGRESS THAN A LINE EXTENDING FROM SEMINOLE...TO KERMIT...TO FORT              
STOCKTON TO SANDERSON.  DRYLINE WILL BE SHARPER TODAY IMPLYING                  
STRONGER SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR IT.  MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE               
WARMER TODAY /700MB WARMED 1C AT KMAF FROM YESTERDAYS SOUNDING/...              
BUT SFC CONVERGENCE MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE CAP.  RUC              
HAS ALSO ANALYZED A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH              
THIS IS HARD TO DISCERN IN WV IMAGERY WITH VERY DRY AIR AT MID                  
LEVELS.  IF INITITIATION TAKES PLACE...WOULD EXPECT IT TO BE NEAR               
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LINE.  THERE WILL ALSO BE A BOUNDARY FROM              
MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOWER TRANS PECOS THIS AFTERNOON THAT             
COULD ACT AS ANOTHER FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.  BULK SHEAR VALUES FROM              
35 TO 45 KNOTS OVER MOST OF THE AREA SUGGEST THAT IF THUNDERSTORMS              
CAN FIRE...THEY WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE ORGANIZED.                       
THIS...ALONG WITH A CAPE VALUE OF AROUND 5700 J/KG FROM THE KMAF                
MORNING SOUNDING AND A NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC TEMPERATURE PROFILE FROM            
750MB TO 500MB INDICATE THAT SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE LIKELY IF                  
THUNDERSTORMS GET GOING...WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND            
DAMAGING WINDS.  NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH THAT CAP WILL BE BROKEN AT                
THIS TIME TO INCREASE POPS MUCH MORE THAN CURRENT FORECAST.                     
DO NOT EXPECT AS MUCH ACTIVITY OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS TODAY AS LOW            
LEVEL MOISTURE IS EAST OF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS TODAY.  COULD STILL               
SEE AFTERNOON CONVECTION FIRE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT WOULD NOT                
EXPECT AS MUCH COVERAGE OR HEAVY RAIN FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS                  
UNLESS THEY SURVIVED EAST TO THE RICH MOISTURE.  MADE VERY FEW                  
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL                
CONTINUE WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE.                                       
LONG TERM...                                                                    
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA NEXT SEVERAL DAYS            
KEEPING UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.  DRYLINE WILL WAFFLE               
BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE AREA AND BE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM                    
DEVELOPMENT.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PUSH BACK TO THE MOUNTAINS              
OVERNIGHT KEEPING MORNING LOWS UP.                                              
MODELS DO NOT DEVELOP MUCH PRECIP FOR AREA EITHER IN COVERAGE OR                
RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE NEXT WEEK... HOWEVER WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE             
IN PLACE... HIGH CAPE OF 2-3000 J... AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES OF -4              
TO -6 BELIEVE LATE AFTERNOON STORMS NEAR DRYLINE A CONTINUING                   
POSSIBILITY.                                                                    
EASTERN CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK WEDNESDAY SO HAVE EXPANDED ISOLATED                
POPS FARTHER WEST AND INCREASED AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE EAST FOR                  
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.  AS FAR AS SEVERITY EXPECT ALL OR                  
NOTHING... ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL TEND TOWARD BEING SEVERE.               
WILL MENTION THIS IN HWO.  NEXT FEW DAYS LOOKS THE SAME.  STRONG                
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF TROUGH LATE SUNDAY IS PROGGED TO PASS                
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA... A SLIGHT CHANGE SOUTHWARD COULD PRODUCE A             
SIGNIFICIANT WEATHER EVENT FOR AREA.  WILL CONTINUE ISOLATED/SLIGHT             
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND INTRODUCE ISOLATED POPS               
NORTHEAST SUNDAY.                                                               
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK TROUGH SHOULD FINALLY CROSS CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A            
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  THIS SHOULD                
RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN STORM             
ACTIVITY.  MONDAY AND TUESDAY FORECAST CURRENTLY DRY... ALTHOUGH                
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.                                
&&                                                                              
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NM...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX                                      
216 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2005                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.               
VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE LOW LEVELS TODAY EAST OF             
THE DRYLINE WHICH WAS NEAR AN ARTESIA TO PECOS TO BIG BEND LINE AT              
16Z THIS MORNING.  DRYLINE WAS SHARPENING UP AT THAT TIME...AND WILL            
CONTINUE TO SHARPEN AS GOOD MIXING TAKES PLACE WEST OF THE DRYLINE              
BRINGING WEST WINDS TO THE SURFACE WHICH WILL MIX/ADVECT THE DRYLINE            
TO THE EAST.  DO NOT EXPECT DRYLINE TO MAKE MUCH MORE EASTERN                   
PROGRESS THAN A LINE EXTENDING FROM SEMINOLE...TO KERMIT...TO FORT              
STOCKTON TO SANDERSON.  DRYLINE WILL BE SHARPER TODAY IMPLYING                  
STRONGER SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR IT.  MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE               
WARMER TODAY /700MB WARMED 1C AT KMAF FROM YESTERDAYS SOUNDING/...              
BUT SFC CONVERGENCE MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE CAP.  RUC              
HAS ALSO ANALYZED A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH              
THIS IS HARD TO DISCERN IN WV IMAGERY WITH VERY DRY AIR AT MID                  
LEVELS.  IF INITITIATION TAKES PLACE...WOULD EXPECT IT TO BE NEAR               
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LINE.  THERE WILL ALSO BE A BOUNDARY FROM              
MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOWER TRANS PECOS THIS AFTERNOON THAT             
COULD ACT AS ANOTHER FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.  BULK SHEAR VALUES FROM              
35 TO 45 KNOTS OVER MOST OF THE AREA SUGGEST THAT IF THUNDERSTORMS              
CAN FIRE...THEY WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE ORGANIZED.                       
THIS...ALONG WITH A CAPE VALUE OF AROUND 5700 J/KG FROM THE KMAF                
MORNING SOUNDING AND A NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC TEMPERATURE PROFILE FROM            
750MB TO 500MB INDICATE THAT SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE LIKELY IF                  
THUNDERSTORMS GET GOING...WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND            
DAMAGING WINDS.  NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH THAT CAP WILL BE BROKEN AT                
THIS TIME TO INCREASE POPS MUCH MORE THAN CURRENT FORECAST.                     
DO NOT EXPECT AS MUCH ACTIVITY OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS TODAY AS LOW            
LEVEL MOISTURE IS EAST OF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS TODAY.  COULD STILL               
SEE AFTERNOON CONVECTION FIRE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT WOULD NOT                
EXPECT AS MUCH COVERAGE OR HEAVY RAIN FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS                  
UNLESS THEY SURVIVED EAST TO THE RICH MOISTURE.  MADE VERY FEW                  
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL                
CONTINUE WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE.                                       
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA NEXT SEVERAL DAYS            
KEEPING UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.  DRYLINE WILL WAFFLE               
BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE AREA AND BE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM                    
DEVELOPMENT.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PUSH BACK TO THE MOUNTAINS              
OVERNIGHT KEEPING MORNING LOWS UP.                                              
MODELS DO NOT DEVELOP MUCH PRECIP FOR AREA EITHER IN COVERAGE OR                
RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE NEXT WEEK... HOWEVER WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE             
IN PLACE... HIGH CAPE OF 2-3000 J... AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES OF -4              
TO -6 BELIEVE LATE AFTERNOON STORMS NEAR DRYLINE A CONTINUING                   
POSSIBILITY.                                                                    
EASTERN CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK WEDNESDAY SO HAVE EXPANDED ISOLATED                
POPS FARTHER WEST AND INCREASED AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE EAST FOR                  
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.  AS FAR AS SEVERITY EXPECT ALL OR                  
NOTHING... ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL TEND TOWARD BEING SEVERE.               
WILL MENTION THIS IN HWO.  NEXT FEW DAYS LOOKS THE SAME.  STRONG                
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF TROUGH LATE SUNDAY IS PROGGED TO PASS                
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA... A SLIGHT CHANGE SOUTHWARD COULD PRODUCE A             
SIGNIFICIANT WEATHER EVENT FOR AREA.  WILL CONTINUE ISOLATED/SLIGHT             
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND INTRODUCE ISOLATED POPS               
NORTHEAST SUNDAY.                                                               
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK TROUGH SHOULD FINALLY CROSS CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A            
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  THIS SHOULD                
RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN STORM             
ACTIVITY.  MONDAY AND TUESDAY FORECAST CURRENTLY DRY... ALTHOUGH                
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.                                
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
BIG SPRING TX              71  96  71  95 /  20  20  20  20                     
CARLSBAD NM                65  99  66  99 /  10   0   0   0                     
DRYDEN TX                  74  96  73  94 /  20  20  20  20                     
FORT STOCKTON TX           72  98  72  96 /  30  20  20  20                     
GUADALUPE PASS TX          63  92  65  94 /   0   0   0   0                     
HOBBS NM                   63  99  66  99 /  10   0   0   0                     
MARFA TX                   55  91  57  92 /  10  10  10   0                     
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    72  96  72  96 /  20  20  20  20                     
ODESSA TX                  72  98  72  98 /  20  20  20  20                     
WINK TX                    71 102  71 103 /  20  20  20  10                     
&&                                                                              
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NM...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
72/20                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX                                  
1024 AM CDT TUE JUN 7 2005                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
AREA OF CONVECTION IN CROCKETT COUNTY IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVE
OUR EASTERN CWA SHOULD PERSIST INTO MID AFTERNOON ACCORDING TO LATEST RUC RUN   
AND THEN DISSIPATE. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT FORECAST FOR LOW POPS FOR THIS        
AFTERNOON EAST AND EXTREME SOUTH. SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH FORECAST   
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON LOOKING GOOD.                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT TUE JUN 7 2005/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
ONCE AGAIN A S/WV SOUTH OF BIG BEND IS TRYING TO DRIVE STORMS                   
ACROSS RIO GRANDE INTO SWRN ZONES. IT APPEARS THE GROUP EARLY THIS              
MORNING  IS HAVING A PROBLEM AS IT DRIVES INTO A STRENGTHENING                  
RIDGE. AS THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL NOT MOVE THRU NEXT 72 HOURS...A              
BATTLE APPEARS LIKELY EACH NIGHT BETWEEN ABILITY OF S/WVS TO DRIVE              
STORMS EWD AND STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE INTO WHICH THEY ARE MOVING.                
OUTSIDE OF THAT STRUGGLE...THE ONLY CHANGE FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS                
IS A SLOW BUILDING OF THE RIDGE AND SLIGHT WARMING OF DAYTIME                   
HIGHS.                                                                          
BY SAT...GFS MOVES WRN US TROF FAR ENOUGH EAST TO PRODUCE                       
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...POSSIBLY INTO THE                
CENTRAL COUNTIES BY SAT NIGHT. ACTUALLY...ECMWF IS EVEN MORE                    
ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT THE RAIN CHANCES. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS INTO                
SUN...THEN BACK TO HOT AND DUSTY.                                               
&&                                                                              
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
03/06                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA                                             
750 AM PDT TUE JUN 7 2005                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP COOL AND                    
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST THROUGH                  
MIDWEEK. A BRIEF DRYING PERIOD IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY...BUT WET AND            
COOL WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.                                       
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...WV SATELLITE IMAGERY REALLY SHOWS AN INTERESTING WX                   
PATTERN FOR THE REGION...SOMETHING WE DON'T SEE VERY OFTEN. ACROSS              
THE MIDWEST SOUTHERLY FLOW IS BRINGING UP A STREAM OF GULF                      
MOISTURE. WITH CUTOFF LOW SPINNING OVER THE PAC NW...THIS STREAM                
OF MOISTURE IS HEADING WESTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN CANADIAN                     
PROVINCES. NOW A BAND OF THIS MOISTURE IS HEADING SOUTH INTO THE                
CWA OUT OF BC THIS MORNING. PW ON THE KELOWNA SOUNDING THIS                     
MORNING SHOWS .77 INCHES. MODELS REALLY NOT TOO HELPFUL AS THEY                 
ARE MISSING THIS MOISTURE FEATURE. SO WITH THIS PATTERN SETTING UP              
AND PLENTY OF COOL AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA...A DECENT                       
OVERRUNNING FIELD IS SETTING UP SO WILL INCREASE POPS TODAY MAINLY              
FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN HALF OF CWA. /CR                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 536 AM PDT TUE JUN 7 2005)                          
SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP COOL AND                     
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST THROUGH                  
MIDWEEK. A BRIEF DRYING PERIOD IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY...BUT WET AND            
COOL WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.                                       
DISCUSSION...A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS IS FORMING AHEAD OF                       
ADVANCING MASS OF MOISTURE AND CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST         
THIS MORNING. WILL THROW A MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS PRECIP                   
INTO THE ZONE FORECASTS FROM THE WATERVILLE PLATEAU TO THE COEUR                
D'ALENE AREA THIS MORNING. ALSO GIVEN WIDESPREAD NATURE OF CLOUDS               
AND PRECIP REPORTS MOVING IN FROM THE NE...WE WILL RAISE CLOUD                  
COVER FOR ALL ZONES TODAY AS WELL AS NORTHERN POPS. LOOKS LIKE THE              
LATEST RUC HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE MOISTURE FIELDS AND                       
FROTOGENETIC FORCING DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES                 
WHILE THE GFS AND ETA ARE UNDERPLAYING THE SITUATION. CASE IN                   
POINT...THE 06Z ETA DEPICTS NO PRECIP ALL DAY OVER NW MT OR NORTH               
ID...HOWEVER LATEST SFC OBS AND RADAR SHOWING THAT IS FAR FROM THE              
TRUTH. CONSEQUENTLY WE WILL RAISE POPS INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE               
FOR THESE LOCATIONS THROUGH THE DAY. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO                   
EXPAND THE PRECIP FIELDS EVEN FARTHER SOUTH. /FX                                
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER ALL LOCATIONS THIS                  
MORNING...HOWEVER WE SUSPECT THAT AS PRECIPITATION BECOMES                      
INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON...THAT MVFR CIGS WILL                    
DEVELOP NORTH OF A LINE FROM KELLER TO SANDPOINT OBSCURING                      
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THAT AREA. OTHER TROUBLE SPOT TODAY COULD OCCUR               
OVER SE WA AND NC IDAHO AS DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO DECENT                  
DESTABILIZATION AND A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THREAT IS NOT              
GREAT ENOUGH TO PLACE IN TAFS AS WE SUSPECT INCOMING CLOUD COVER                
WILL INHIBIT POTENTIAL HEATING LATER TODAY. /FX                                 
PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 126 AM PDT TUE JUN 7 2005)                           
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD                   
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW CIRCULATIONS OVER           
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA...NORTHWEST NEVADA AND NORTHWEST OREGON.                   
INITIAL FOCUS WILL BE ON THE LOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA WHICH                
IS ALREADY SPILLING WRAP AROUND MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER                  
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES ON A LINE FROM MULLAN PASS                            
NWWD THROUGH OROVILLE IN THE OKANOGAN VALLEY. THIS LOW IS                       
PROJECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD...WRAPPING WARM MOIST AIR                    
AROUND IT AND FUNNELING IT OVER THE PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS AND                     
NORTHERN WA MOUNTAIN ZONES. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE FAIRLY                
IMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN                          
ZONES...WITH MID-LEVEL FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE BASIN BY                
LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING. DEEPENING FRONTAL ZONE TO THE NORTH               
WILL CREATE A BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT FROM THE LEE                
SLOPES OF THE CASCADES THROUGH THE EAST BASIN RISE. DOWNSLOPE FLOW              
WILL GREATLY LIMIT ANY PRECIP ACCUMULATION ALONG THE LEE SLOPES                 
AND BASIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...MOISTURE AND                  
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THICK CLOUD              
COVER NORTH WITH AREAS OF RAIN BEGINNING THIS MORNING AND SLOWLY                
EXPANDING SOUTH AND WESTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND EARLY                          
EVENING...THE THREAT OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION DECREASES DURING THE                
EVENING AS THE MID-LEVEL FRONT PUSHES SOUTH...WITH THE STRONGEST                
ISENTROPIC ASCENT CONTINUING OVER THE CASCADES. THE SOUTHERN AND                
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES...MOSES LAKE AREA...BLUES...LEWISTON AREA...CAMAS            
PRAIRIE WEATHER WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE CIRCULATION OVER NEVADA.              
MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT             
POTENTIALLY TRIGGERING SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.                 
HAVE KEPT LOW POPS IN OVERNIGHT DESPITE LOSS OF LOW LEVEL                       
INSTABILITY AS DYNAMICS ALOFT BECOME STRONGER.                                  
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GFS AND NAM BEGIN TO DIVERGE                
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE GFS BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE SHIFTING MOST OF              
THE DYNAMICS WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD INTO                
IDAHO...WHERE THE NAM BEGINS SETTING THE STAGE FOR A REX BLOCK                  
WITH DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE REGION                    
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NAM'S SOLUTION IS THE OUTLIER WHEN                 
COMPARED TO THE UKMET AND ECMWF AS WELL...THOUGH GFS APPEARS A                  
LITTLE TOO PROGRESSIVE. HAVE KEPT INSTABILITY SHOWERS IN THE                    
FORECAST...WITH THE MAIN FOCUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...SUSPECT TROUGH              
WILL BE SLOWER IN PROGRESSING EASTWARD...AS PROJECTED BY THE                    
ECMWF AND UKMET. WINDS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE.                 
THURSDAY...FLOW BECOMES SPLIT OVER THE REGION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL              
HIGH OVER SOUTHWESTERN ALBERTA...THE TROUGH OVER MONTANA AND A                  
DEEP LOW OVER NEVADA. MINOR RIPPLES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL                
KEEP THE THREAT OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE THE              
FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY AND DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN               
REBOUNDING BUT STILL TREND SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. /JVW                   
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SPLIT FLOW WITH WEAK RIDGING STILL              
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT PER MOST OF THE                  
EXTENDED GUIDANCE FOR GENERALLY DRY WEATHER. THIS DRYING WILL PROVE             
BRIEF HOWEVER AS CONSISTENT EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW SWIFT ZONAL           
FLOW UNDERCUTTING DEEP GULF OF ALASKA UPPER LOW AND MOVING INTO THE             
PAC NW BY FRIDAY. THIS ZONAL FLOW WILL LEAD TO DECENT MOISTURE                  
ADVECTION AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY FOR             
THE CASCADE CREST AND THE IDAHO MOUNTAINS PER OROGRAPHIC ASCENT. BY             
LATE SATURDAY AND THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED                    
FORECAST THE GULF OF ALASKA LOW BEGINS TO ELONGATE INTO THE PAC NW              
WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF PINCHING OFF A CUTOFF LOW OVER WASHINGTON.               
IF THIS DOES OCCURS...POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE RISE                 
AND SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE CWA. THUNDER COULD ALSO BE             
POSSIBLE...BUT FOR NOW WE WILL OMIT UNTIL WE GET A CONSISTENT                   
MODEL SOLUTION FOR THIS PERIOD. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW                   
NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEX HIGHS SEEM TOO WARM AS THEY TREND               
TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY NUMBERS DESPITE 500 MB HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPS              
NEARLY 1 STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE SAT-MON                
PERIOD. /FX                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
SPOKANE        60  43  62  46  70  49 /  50  30  10  10   0   0                 
COEUR D'ALENE  59  42  61  45  68  48 /  60  30  20  10  10   0                 
PULLMAN        60  43  60  42  67  45 /  20  20  10  20  20   0                 
LEWISTON       65  46  65  50  73  53 /  20  20  10  10  10   0                 
COLVILLE       62  42  61  45  70  49 / 100  60  30  10  10  10                 
SANDPOINT      61  41  58  45  68  49 / 100  40  30  20  20  10                 
KELLOGG        61  40  59  44  67  47 /  90  40  30  20  30  20                 
MOSES LAKE     66  48  70  47  77  51 /  40  20  10   0   0   0                 
WENATCHEE      65  50  69  52  76  54 /  40  20  10  10  10   0                 
OMAK           65  46  68  46  76  49 /  60  50  10  10  10   0                 
&&                                                                              
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ID...NONE.                                                                      
WA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   wa                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA                                       
300 AM PDT WED JUN 8 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...A LATE SEASON RAIN EVENT IS ON TAP FOR THE SAN                    
FRANCISCO BAY AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH BAY...                         
WELL IT APPEARS THE NAM HAS BEEN RIGHT ALL ALONG WITH THE LOW                   
PRESSURE AREA APPROACHING THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. LIGHT WARM             
ADVECTION RAINS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED AS FAR SOUTH AND SANTA ROSA              
THIS MORNING. RUC SHOWS NICE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE              
NORTH BAY...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE WELL INTO THE MORNING HOURS. IN               
ADDITION...ONE VORT MAX WILL MOVE THRU THE BAY AREA THIS MORNING                
ADDING BETTER DYNAMICS TO THE EQUATION. THE RESULT SHOULD BE LIGHT              
RAIN SPREADING SOUTHWARD TO THE BAY BRIDGE BY MIDDAY. GFS/NAM THEN              
EXPECT TWO MORE VORT LOBES TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA OVER THE           
NEXT 36 HOURS...ONE THIS EVENING AND ANOTHER THURSDAY MORNING. THE              
RESULT WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN ALL THE WAY DOWN TO                 
MONTEREY AND THE SANTA LUCIAS BEGINNING SOMETIME TODAY AND CONTINUING           
INTO THURSDAY. QPF SHOULD RANGE FROM JUST A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS AROUND            
THE MONTEREY BAY TO A TENTH OR TWO IN THE GREATER SF BAY AREA...AND             
AS MUCH AS 0.75 INCHES IN THE SONOMA COASTAL HILLS. OVERALL...NOT               
WHAT ONE WOULD TYPICALLY EXPECT FOR JUNE WEATHER AROUND HERE.                   
AN IMPORTANT NOTE ABOUT THE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS:                
JUNE IS A TIME OF YEAR WHEN OUTDOOR ENTHUSIASTS OFTEN HEAD UP TO THE            
HIGH COUNTRY FOR HIKING AND CAMPING...THINKING THE WEATHER WILL BE              
NICE AND WARM. THIS IS A COLD CORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL                
BRING A CHILLY RAIN AND POSSIBLY SNOW TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE              
SIERRAS AND THE SISKIYOUS. PEOPLE PLANNING TO SPEND THE NIGHT                   
OUTDOORS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...EVEN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE              
BAY AREA...SHOULD BRING PLENTY OF WARM CLOTHES. IN OTHER WORDS...               
PEOPLE SHOULD PACK FOR AN APRIL CAMPING TRIP...NOT A JUNE CAMPING               
TRIP. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (WWUS86 SFOSPSMTR) WILL BE ISSUED             
SHORTLY HIGHLIGHTING THIS.                                                      
TEMPS REMAIN COOL ALOFT TODAY...AS IS TO BE EXPECTED WITH A STRONG              
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST. NOT EXPECTING CONVECTION IN OUR               
CWA TODAY AS SFC HEATING WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND                 
SYNOPTIC DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PRETTY WEAK WITH THESE VORT                
LOBES. WITH THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...MOST               
AREAS WILL STAY IN THE 60S...AND POSSIBLY LOWER 60S IN THE RAIN-                
DAMPENED NORTH BAY. AS A RESULT HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE AS MUCH              
AS 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE            
SOUTHERN INTERIOR...WHERE IT SHOULD REMAIN SUNNY FOR THE FIRST HALF             
OF THE DAY. TEMPS THERE COULD PUSH 80 DEGREES ONCE AGAIN TODAY.                 
ON THURSDAY...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EASTWARD INTO THE               
GREAT BASIN WITH THE DISTRICT STAYING IN COOL MOIST NW FLOW. SOME               
ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY             
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NAM 12KM SUGGESTS PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER             
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SO STRATOCUMULUS                  
CLOUDS SHOULD FORM AGAIN RESULTING IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT. BY                 
FRIDAY FLAT RIDGING BEGINS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO CALIFORNIA AND WE               
BEGIN A SLOW RETURN TO WEATHER MORE TYPICAL OF JUNE. AS TEMPS WARM              
ALOFT...UP TO AROUND +15 DEG C OVER OAKLAND BY SATURDAY...THE MARINE            
LAYER SHOULD REESTABLISH ITSELF WITH THE TEMPERATURE PATTERN                    
RETURNING TO THE FAMILIAR 60S AT THE COAST TO 90S ACROSS THE                    
SOUTHERN INTERIOR FOR THE WEEKEND.                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...CLOUDS HAVE RAPIDLY INCREASED AND LOWERED AS UPPER                  
TROUGH SAGS SOUTH. IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY OVER STS WITH             
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KSFO AND KOAK TODAY WITH CEILINGS               
BETWEEN 1000-1500 FT AT THOSE AIRPORTS. KSJC...KMRY...AND KSNS SHOULD           
HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY. LIGHT RAIN HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED AT KSTS            
AND WOULD EXPECT THE RAIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY                 
BETWEEN 14Z-16Z AND OVER MONTEREY BAY BETWEEN 19Z-23Z. WINDS SHOULD             
BE LIGHT THROUGH TODAY. WITH THE MAIN ENERGY TO THE NORTH...AND NOT             
MUCH INSTABILITY WOULD NOT EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TODAY.                         
&&                                                                              
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
    ...TDA...NONE.                                                              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC FORECAST: WEAGLE                                                         
MARINE/AVIATION: STROBIN                                                        
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   ca                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
353 AM MDT WED JUN 8 2005                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)                                                             
MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN REMAIN TEMPERATURE AND WINDS.                           
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS STILL INDICATING SW              
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE...AS A WEAKENING UPPER LOW PRESSURE                 
SYSTEM PERSISTS ACROSS THE PAC NW WITH POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS                
EJECTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH              
PLAINS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATING VERY DRY AIR ACROSS THE             
DESERT SW THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ATTM. AT THE             
SFC...WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS LOOKS TO            
BE THROUGH LAA ATTM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE                      
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.                                                            
TODAY...MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE STATE...AS                
NEXT SHORT WAVE EJECTING OFF PAC NW SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN              
ROCKIES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL              
HIGH PLAINS...WITH BRISK UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN             
PLAINS AS THERMAL TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS THIS                    
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE PLAINS...HOWEVER           
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO REMAIN SPARSE...AS THE VERY DRY AIR             
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BECOMES ENTRAINED IN THE FLOW. MODEL            
SOUNDINGS INDICATING RATHER STABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH LIS ABOVE ZERO               
ACROSS THE REGION...SAVE PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MTS...THE RAMPART              
RANGE AND THE NORTHERN FRONT RANGE. WITH THIS IN MIND...AND BEST                
MOISTURE REMAINING NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA...HAVE REMOVED POPS                
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...KEEPING ONLY SLIGHT              
CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL MTS AND PIKES PEAK REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO              
SEE BRISK SW WINDS MIX DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MTS AND SAN LUIS                
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH FIRE DANGER CONTINUING TO INCREASE AS              
FINE FUELS AS WELL AS LARGER FUELS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT.                         
TONIGHT...SW FLOW ALOFT PERISTS AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO               
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...           
WITH ASSOCIATED STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE COLORADO AND              
WYOMING BORDER OVERNIGHT. AGAIN MODELS KEEPING DRY AIR IN PLACE                 
ACROSS THE CWA...AND HAVE ONLY KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE               
PIKES PEAK REGION THROUGH THE EVENING. -MW                                      
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)                                                      
...POTENTIAL ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...                      
THU AND THU NGT...RELATIVELY DEEP MID/UPPER SWLY FLOW REMAINS OVER              
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH A LOW LEVEL COLD FRONT AROUND THE PALMER               
DIVIDE INTO KS AND A DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD ALONG SERN CO/SWRN KS                
BORDER THU AFTN. SERN CO WILL UNDER THE EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL                   
PLAINS CAPPING INVERSION...WHICH IS TYPICALLY THE THUNDERSTORM                  
ACTIVE AREA IF OTHER PARAMETERS ARE IN PLACE. BEST CHANCE FOR                   
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE AROUND THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND OUT                
ALONG AND E OF THE DRYLINE. SFC BASED INSTABILITIES ARE NOT ALL                 
THAT UNSTABLE...BUT THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXTREMELY                     
UNSTABLE...9.5 C/KM. WITH A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH               
THE WLY FLOW...NOCTURNAL SLY 40-50KT LLJ DEVELOPS ACROSS THE                    
SRN/CNTRL PLAINS THU NGT. LOOKS LIKE THE POTENTIAL FOR A NOCTURNAL              
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM JUST NORTH OF THE SFC/PBL BOUNDARY AND              
AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ THU NGT. THIS COULD BE IN WRN NE OR WRN                  
KS/ERN CO DEPENDING ON WHERE THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY SETS UP.                    
POTENTIAL MCS BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH THE COLD FRONT INTO ERN CO LATE              
THU NGT INTO FRI AM.                                                            
FRI...THIS COULD BE THE MORE ACTIVE DAY AS THE MAIN WRN US TROUGH               
AXIS BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. WITH BETTER MOISTURE              
AND SOME INSTABILITY...THERE APPEARS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR                  
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF S CNTRL/SERN CO...ESPECIALLY SERN CO.              
THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY COULD STRETCH ACROSS LAS ANIMAS AND BACA                 
COUNTIES. THE HIGHER CONVECTIVE ENERGY...1K-2K J/KG...WILL BE IN                
THIS REGION. O-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE 45-55KTS AND JUXTAPOSED WITH THE          
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING                        
SUPERCELLS. MODEL SOUNDINGS AROUND THIS BOUNDARY ARE SHOWING                    
MODERATE CAPE IN THE -10C TO -30C "HAIL GROWTH REGION"...WHICH                  
WOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. THERE IS A SMALL                    
"WINDOW" FRI AFTN WHERE DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES REACH 2K J/KG IN ERN              
LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES AROUND THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY...WHICH              
COULD ALSO SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. 1KM-3KM VALUES RUNNING                  
150-350 M^2/S^2 ALONG WITH RELATIVELY LOW LCL HEIGHTS. SINCE THE                
BOUNDARY WILL POTENTIALLY REMAIN SOMEWHAT STATIONARY...THERE COULD              
BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR A TORNADO ACROSS LAS ANIMAS OR BACA COUNTY...IF EVERY    
COMES TOGETHER. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE COOLER.                           
SAT THROUGH TUE...PATTERN TO REMAIN ACTIVE SAT AND SUN. BY EARLY                
NEXT WEEK...A RELATIVELY DRIER AND WARMER PATTERN RETURNS TO THE                
CENTRAL ROCKIES. [METZE]                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
23/17                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
230 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION FOR MORNING ZONES/GRIDS...                                          
CONVECTION FIRED UP OVER NW IN AND LOWER MI DURING THE OVERNIGHT                
HOURS MOVING E. EARLIER MCS OVER NRN WIS HAS DISSIPATED FOR THE MOST            
PART EXCEPT FOR SMALL CLUSTER OF ACTIVE STORMS WEST CENTRAL WIS.                
HOWEVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SEEN IN MKX RADAR AND SFC OBS...DROPPING               
SOUTH TOWARD NRN IL. LATEST RUC TRIES TO WASH THIS OUT RATHER                   
QUICKLY AND SLY FLOW TAKES OVER AGAIN. FEW STORMS TRYING TO FORM                
ALONG AND N OF THE BOUNDARY BUT SEEM TO BE DYING AS QUICKLY AS THEY             
FORM. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE MORNING.                               
AMS SHOULD HEAT UP INTO LOWER 90S AGAIN TODAY WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN            
MID 60S. THIS WILL BE SIMILAR SCENARIO TO TUES WITH GOOD                        
INSTABILITY...WEAK SHEAR AND NO ORGANIZED LIFTING MECHANISM. EXPECT             
DISORGANIZED WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS AGAIN JUST ABOUT                  
ANYWHERE. SSW LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD LIMIT LAKE BREEZE TO THE NORTH             
SHORE AREA OF IL SIMILAR TO TUES...ALTHOUGH WIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY            
ENHANCE THE LAKE BREEZE SOMEWHAT. THE LAKE BREEZE/REMNANTS OF WIS               
OUTFLOW COULD BE FOCUS FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORMS. TRAILING VORT LOBE            
ASSOCIATED WITH NEB SQUALL LINE COULD MOVE ACROSS IL THIS AFTERNOON             
AND EVE TO ENHANCE TSTM CHANCES AS WELL. EXPECT STORM CHANCES TO                
DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER DARK AS ACTION REFOCUSES OVER CENTRAL PLAINS.            
THEN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG NEARLY STATIONARY                    
BOUNDARY FROM PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY. GFS                   
APPEARS TO BE THROWING A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INTO THE MIX THIS                 
WEEKEND...MOVING IT FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO THE LOW MS VLY             
AND TN VLY. WILL KEEP TSTM CHANCES GOING THROUGH MON. PATTERN SHIFT             
MON NIGHT/TUES STILL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH DRYING FOR MID                 
WEEK.                                                                           
ALLSOPP                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
630 PM CDT                                                                      
RE 00Z TAFORS...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN DUE TO STABALIZING             
OUTFLOWS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER DWPTS ADVECTING IN FM SW. WILL BE ISOLD             
TCU AND SHRA AROUND IN FAR NERN IL/NW IND FOR NEXT HR OR TWO WITH               
ANY RESIDUAL SFC HEAT AND BOUNDARIES TO INITIATE. UPSTRM TSRA FM SE             
CORNER OF IA SWRD TO S CTRL MO IF HELD TOGETHER WOULD MOV INTO N                
CNTRL AND NE IL 05-06Z BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS. DON/T SEE SIGNS OF            
STG FORCING TO HAVE THEM PERSIST THO...SO JUST HI DEBRIS OVRNGT                 
FCST. AS TYPICAL OF SITUATION...MODELS HAVE VARIOUS IDEAS ABOUT                 
PERIODIC SHRTWVS AND/OR CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT MAXIMA. EXPECT                
TSRA TO BE IN GENERAL AREA 18Z ON...BUT WITH TIMING/LOCATION DUBIOUS            
WILL ONLY CARY CB IN SKY CONDITION ATTM...INDICATING NATURE OF                  
AIRMASS.                                                                        
TRS                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LOT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
.IL...NONE.                                                                     
.IN...NONE.                                                                     
.LK MI...NONE.                                                                  
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
417 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2005                                                       
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)                                               
MODELS SEEM TO AGREE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP SOUTH AND WEST OF THE              
AREA AGAIN TODAY AND PROPAGATE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. WITH THE               
EXCEPTION OF THE WEST...SKIES OVER THE CWA WERE MOSTLY CLEAR. AREA              
SHOULD GET PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AGAIN TODAY...WITH TEMPS NEAR 90                  
EVERYWHERE. OUTFLOW FROM YESTERDAY'S STORMS SHOULD GENERATE TS/SH BY            
MID MORNING...SO CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN EVERYWHERE FOR THE                
MORNING. MADE A SMALL ADJUSTMENT TO THE AFTERNOON AND INCREASED POPS            
IN THE SOUTHWEST TO LIKELY. THE ETA WAS GENERATING CONVECTION OVER              
THE NORTHERN ARES AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTED EAST...WITH AN                    
EASTWARD MOVING DISTURBANCE GENERATING CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST.           
GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SHOW GOOD CHANCE POPS...SO DECIDED TO MAINTAIN.           
THE RUC GENERATES QPF EVERYWHERE...BUT WOULD NOT WANT TO GO MUCH                
HIGHER THAN LIKELY. WINDS REMAIN WEAK ON ALL LEVELS...WITH GENERAL              
FLOW FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST IN THE LOWER LEVELS. PW VALUES WILL           
REMAIN IN THE 1.75 TO 2 INCH RANGE...SO HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH             
STORMS AGAIN TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE FZL FROM LAST NIGHT WAS NEAR 15KFT             
AND THE WBZ HEIGHT WAS NEAR 13KFT CAN NOT RULE OUT STRONG STORMS WITH           
SMALL HAIL AGAIN TODAY...WILL MENTION IN THE HWO. GENERALLY COULD NOT           
IMPROVE SHORT TERM FORECAST...SO ADJUSTMENTS WERE MINOR.                        
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SERN CONUS FORECAST TO BUILD THURSDAY INTO         
THE WEEKEND AS PERSISTENT MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS ALONG THE MS RIVER WILL          
REMAIN JUST ABOUT STATIONARY. THE WRN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE              
GRADUALLY WEAKENS THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH PWATS IN THE             
1.8-2.0" RANGE. EXPECT MORE OF MOSTLY DIURNAL CYCLE OF CONVECTION               
WITH MODEL CAPES REACHING AROUND 2000J/KG THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH K             
INDEXES 33-36...FOLLOWED BY LOWER VALUES OF 1000J/KG AND 30-33 ON               
FRIDAY.                                                                         
THE PAST 6 RUNS OF GFS BRING A DEFINITE WARM CORE TROPICAL LOW INTO             
THE MS/AL COAST SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH PWATS NEAR 2.7". THIS           
APPEARS A BIT FAST HOWEVER THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON            
A TRACK WITH NOGAPS/ECMWF HEADING THE SYSTEM INTO SERN TX...THE                 
UKMET/GFDL UP THE MS RIVER...CANADIAN TOWARD THE FL PANHANDLE AND THE           
MM5 FROM FSU TOWARD AL COAST. MAIN VARIABILITY AT THIS POINT LIES IN            
TIMING WHICH RANGES FROM LATE SATURDAY TO EARLY MONDAY. PLAN ON                 
FOCUSING HEAVIEST RAINS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY FOR ERN MS              
SINCE FORECAST CONFIDENCE GROWING FOR THE STORM TO MOVE ROUGHLY UP              
ALONG 90W BASED ON 200-300MB TROUGH/RIDGE AXES. WHILE EARLY JUNE                
HURRICANES IN THE GULF ARE QUITE RARE...THERE WAS ALBERTO IN 1982 AND           
A LATER JUNE BONNIE IN 1986...BOTH OF WHICH REACHED ABOUT 75KTS. WILL           
NOT INDICATE ANY WINDS ABOVE A GUST TO 25 KTS IN GRIDS SATURDAY NIGHT           
OVER SERN MS AND DEVELOPMENTS WILL BEAR WATCHING CLOSELY DUE TO THE             
FAVORABLE ORIGINATION AREA IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN.                                
AFTER THE WEEKEND...AN EXPANDING MEXICAN/S TX MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS              
SHOULD TEND TO DRY US OUT A BIT THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH                
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURE REGIME. A LIGHT NWLY FLOW ALOFT PATTERN COULD           
PRESENT A FEW SURPRISES DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOG HAS BEEN SLOW TO FORM TONIGHT...BUT WILL PROBABLY KEEP PATCHY               
FOG IN FOR MEI...GWO AND MAYBE HBG FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE                    
MORNING...12-14Z. EXPECT CLOUDS TO REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST OF             
THE MORNING. EXPECT AFTERNOON CU WITH MOST OF THE AREA BROKEN BY                
21Z. WILL CONTINUE WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PREVAILING GROUP IN THE            
AFTERNOON...MAY GO WITH VCTS AROUND GLH AROUND 15Z. EXPECTING TS/SH             
TO END IN THE EVENING WITH CLOUDS THINNING BRIEFLY. MAY GO WITH                 
PATCHY FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT...SINCE RAIN SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD.              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       89  71  89  71 /  50  50  50  40                                  
MERIDIAN      90  68  89  68 /  50  50  50  40                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
07/40                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ms                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                            
400 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
JUICY AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S CONTINUES TO STREAM UP OUT OF               
THE GULF INTO THE PLAINS THIS MORNING.  LOW LEVEL JET IS SCREAMING              
OVER THE PLAINS TOO AT 30 TO 50 KTS THIS MORNING ACCORDING TO THE               
RUC...AND WE'VE GOT A BIG OLD UGLY MCS MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST                  
NEBRASKA...EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND MINNESOTA THIS MORNING TO                 
PROVE IT.  OLD-SCHOOL CFM VECTORS OFF THE RUC AND NAM WOULD TEND TO             
WANT TO DROP THE MCS SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WHILE THE NEWER            
FORWARD PROPAGATING VECTORS WANT TO MOVE THE MCS EAST-NORTHEAST.                
THERE SEEMS TO BE A DISTINCT--IF SLOW--SOUTHWARD PUSH TO THE                    
ECHOMASS SO THE ORIGINAL CFM VECTORS WOULD SEEM TO BE DOING BETTER              
WITH THIS SYSTEM.  THIS SOUTHWARD PUSH MIGHT BE IN RESPONSE TO THE              
VEERING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND SUBSEQUENT SOUTHEASTWARD MIGRATION             
OF THE GREATEST MASS CONVERGENCE...                                             
REGARDLESS...IT SEEMS AS THOUGH THIS MCS HAS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN               
IOWA IN ITS SIGHTS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN NORTHERN MISSOURI.  WOULD                
EXPECT THE MCS TO GRADUALLY DIE OUT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS                
THIS MORNING...BUT THE BOUNDARIES IT LEAVES BEHIND SHOULD CONTINUE              
TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA.  NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR               
NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI SHOW IN EXCESS OF 6000 J/KG OF CAPE.             
NCEP WAS THINKING THAT THE NAM MIGHT BE OVERDONE WITH ITS MOISTURE              
FORECASTS TODAY...BUT EVEN IF WE KNOCK OFF 2000 JOULES...4000 CAPE              
IS STILL ENOUGH TO RAISE THE BLOOD PRESSURE OF ANY WARNING                      
FORECASTER.  0-6KM BULK SHEAR ISN'T ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE THIS                    
AFTERNOON OVER THE STATE...WITH MAXIMUM VALUES MAYBE AS HIGH AS                 
30-35 KTS OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS...BUT WITH 4000-6000 CAPE AND                  
LITTLE OR NO CINH WE COULD SEE SOME ORGANIZED MULTICELLS/QLCS                   
DEVELOPMENT.  NO REAL WAY OF TELLING EXACTLY WHERE THE CELLS WILL               
POP THIS AFTERNOON SO I'VE BROAD BRUSHED CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA            
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES UP IN NORTHERN MISSOURI...BUT EXPECT             
THAT JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN THE CWFA COULD SEE RAIN TODAY.  IN                  
FACT...A FEW CELLS HAVE FORMED IN THE MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER                
EASTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.  NOTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED            
IN COVERAGE AT THIS TIME...BUT I HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED WORDING IN              
THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.                                                      
THE FORECAST DOESN'T GET ANY EASIER AFTER TODAY...  WE STAY STUCK IN            
THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE WEEKEND.  WITH MCS DEVELOPMENT               
OVER THE PLAINS EACH NIGHT WE'LL SEE THEIR REMNANTS SHUTTLING ACROSS            
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EACH DAY.  I STILL THINK THE PRIMARY RAIN            
THREAT WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST             
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WHERE THERE WILL BE LESS INFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER              
RIDGING TO OUR EAST...BUT CAN'T RULE OUT RAIN FOR ANYWHERE OVER THE             
CWFA.  HAVE THEREFORE KEPT VARYING DEGREES OF CHANCE WORDING IN THE             
FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND.                                                      
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO LOOK PRETTY REASONABLE SO I'VE                
FOLLOWED THEM CLOSELY...WITH A MINOR TWEAK UPWARD IN THE FIRST 2                
DAYS AS A NOD TO PERSISTENCE.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CARNEY                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT                                         
400 AM MDT WED JUN 8 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ANOTHER COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING.               
ONE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA LAST                
NIGHT AND IT DID NOT GET PULLED OUT INTO THE PLAINS WITH THE MCS NOW            
AFFECTING MN AND WI. THIS SYSTEM HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF A SLOW WESTWARD             
MOVEMENT BUT BY 6 AM IT IS EXPECTED TO START MOVING SLOWLY TO THE               
NORTHEAST. THEREFORE ANY PRECIP FROM THIS SYSTEM SHOULD ONLY AFFECT             
THE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF BLAINE AND FERGUS COUNTY THIS MORNING.              
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA AFFECTING THE            
DILLON AREA. THE RUC MODEL LINGERS THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THIS               
REGION MOST OF THE DAY. THEREFORE WENT WITH HIGH POPS FOR MUCH OF               
BEAVERHEAD AND THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MADISON AND GALLATIN                    
COUNTIES FOR TODAY. SNOW IS LIKELY THIS MORNING ABOVE 6000 FEET IN              
THIS REGION.                                                                    
OTHERWISE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE               
AREA THIS MORNING...DUE TO THE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS THAT DEVELOP              
ON TUESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH OVER               
THE REMAINDER OF NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA AS THE AIRMASS             
BECOMES SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE BUT ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED.                    
THEREFORE I HAVE ALSO ALLOWED THE FLOOD WARNING TO EXPIRE FOR                   
GLACIER COUNTY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL...ABOUT 10 DEGREES                
BELOW NORMAL.                                                                   
FOR TONIGHT EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE REGION AS A NEW UPPER             
LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS NORTHEAST OF HAVRE.                                          
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...EXPECT A SLOW DRYING TREND AS ALL OF              
THESE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW SYSTEMS FINALLY START TO DRIFT AWAY AND            
THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE BY LATE             
IN THE DAY OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER               
LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES THOUGH. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO                 
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BRUSDA                      
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO                   
INDICATE THAT THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BE INFLUENCED BY UPPER LEVEL            
TROUGHING DURING THIS PERIOD. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS HAVE               
BECOME A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THE ECMWF SENDING ENERGY FURTHER              
SOUTH THAN THE GFSLR. DUE TO MODEL UNCERTAINTY WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP            
A BROAD BRUSH FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND....WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE              
TO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING SLIGHTLY BELOW            
SEASONAL NORMS. MPJ                                                             
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ONLY MINOR INCONSISTENCIES IN                  
MODELS DURING THIS PERIOD. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS CWA             
MONDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE                       
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. WEAK UPPER LEVEL             
RIDGE BUILDS IN TUESDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS. THE EXCEPTION IS ALONG              
THE DIVIDE WHERE MOISTURE IN AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE               
RESPONSIBLE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DOWNSLOPE FLOW            
WILL HELP KEEP PLAINS DRY AND WARM TEMPERATURES TO NEAR SEASONAL                
AVERAGES BY WEDNESDAY. EK                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
UPDATED AT 0500Z                                                                
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS ROTATING OVER THE IDAHO                   
PANHANDLE WITH LIGHT FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS               
OVER THE MT/ALTA/SASK BORDER WITH MODERATE WEST FLOW ACROSS THE LEE             
SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT PLAINS. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH              
MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SHOWERS AND             
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO AND WYOMING ARE MOVING NORTH AND              
MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP OVER AREAS OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA.                     
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
GTF  62  41  62  43 /  20  30  30  20                                           
CTB  60  39  59  41 /  20  30  30  20                                           
HLN  62  43  63  45 /  30  40  50  20                                           
BZN  60  36  62  38 /  40  30  30  20                                           
WEY  47  30  56  33 /  60  40  30  20                                           
DLN  54  35  59  37 /  80  40  40  20                                           
HVR  64  44  64  46 /  40  30  30  20                                           
LWT  60  39  60  41 /  30  40  30  20                                           
&&                                                                              
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...BRUSDA                                                             
LONG TERM....MPJ/EK                                                             
AVIATION...MPJ                                                                  
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   mt                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND                              
428 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2005                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ND/SD                
BORDER WITH GOOD DRYING/DARKENING ACROSS MOSTLY WESTERN SD.                     
NICE BOW ECHO EARLIER OVER WEST CENTRAL MN HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN               
MN. STORMS HAVE DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY. WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION              
IN AN EAST-WEST BAND OVER THE NORTHERN VALLEY. BAND WAS DECREASING              
IN WIDTH.  MCV INDICATED ON 88D NEAR JMS MOVING NORTH. GOOD                     
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET FROM TX TO SD TURNS MORE NORTHEAST INTO                 
EASTERN MN EARLY THIS MORNING OFF THE RUC. 850 HPA THETA-E GRADIENT             
WAS ACROSS ACROSS CENTRAL MN. AREA GETS DRY SLOTTED TODAY. WITH                 
UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES A                    
CIRCULATION CENTER OVER OREGON WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN VALLEY THU              
AND THU EVENING.                                                                
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
NO CHANGES.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...FLOOD WATCH FOR ERN ND THROUGH 23Z WED.                                    
NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.                             
MN...FLOOD WATCH FOR NW AND W CNTRL MN THROUGH 23Z WED. MNZ001>009-             
013>017-022>024-027>032-040.                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HOPPES                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   nd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
10 AM EDT WED JUN 8 2005                                                        
...SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY INLAND...                    
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
LCL AIRMASS IS PRIMED FOR DIURNAL COVECTION...MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW            
PW VAULES ACROSS THE PENINSULA ARE 1.8"-2.0".  FURTHERMORE...A WEAK             
WIND PROFILE THROUGH H50 WILL ALLOW THE SEABREEZE TO FORM BY MIDDAY             
AND BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND.  ALSO...LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOCAL             
H50 VORT MAX DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND A LCL H30-H20 SPEED MAX OVER THE             
SRN PENINSULA GENERATING UPR LVL DIVERGENCE.                                    
WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL AGAIN PRODUCE SLOW MOVING STORMS CONTAINING             
VERY HEAVY RAIN. AS A RESULT...ISOLATED SPOTS (MAINLY INTERIOR) WILL            
PICK UP 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN.                                                  
STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE GULF STREAM IS A GOOD INDICATOR OF                      
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY. ONLY NEED MINOR REFRESHMENT CHANGES TO THE             
MORNING FORECAST.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE GULF STREAM THIS MORNING HAS               
PUT DOWN AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHING WEST TOWARD THE BREVARD COUNTY             
COAST. ADDITIONAL BOUNDARIES MAY MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE TREASURE                
COAST AND TOGETHER MAY TRIGGER CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG OR JUST              
INLAND FROM THE COAST. FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IS IN THE PROCESS OF                
SHIFTING FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE FL PENINSULA WHERE                     
INSTABILITY IS INCREASING WITH HEATING OF THE DAY.  ONSHORE FLOW                
WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTN SOUTH LEG WITH SEAS                   
REMAINING 2 TO 3 FEET.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL BUT WITH INCREASING MVFR/IFR CONVECTION               
AFT 17Z.  STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING                   
CURRENTS...IF ONE AFFECTS A TAF SITE IT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL                 
OF PRODUCING IFR CONDITIONS FOR AN HOUR OR MORE.                                
&&                                                                              
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC...BRAGAW                                                                 
MARINE...KELLY                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
647 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2005                                                       
.AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS...                                            
WINDS AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL REMAIN MAIN TAF CONCERNS.                      
CONVECTION EARLIER IN THE NIGHT HAS PUSHED A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY              
INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH 88D...LOCAL MESONET              
AND METARS PLACING WIND SHIFT ROUGHLY FROM NORTH OF KRFD...TO NEAR              
KPWK...TO ABOUT THE FORMER KCGX. BOUNDARY APPEARS TO HAVE STALLED               
AND MAY BE DRIFTING BACK NORTH...WITH SOME SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO               
WIND FIELD AT ALL TAF SITES. QUESTION ARISES WITH WEAK GRADIENT AND             
CONVECTIVELY DISTURBED LIGHT WIND FIELD THIS MORNING AS TO WHETHER              
LAKE BREEZE/OUTFLOW WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH A BIT FARTHER INLAND THAN              
OTHERWISE EXPECTED. NAM/GFS/RUC ALL INDICATE 950 HPA WINDS FROM                 
SOUTH AT 10-14 KTS TODAY...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST WEAK SOUTHEAST LAKE              
BREEZE INTO LAKE CO IL...BUT REMAINING EAST OF KORD/KMDW. SOME                  
RECOVERY TO SOUTH FLOW BEHIND OUTFLOW ALREADY...SO FOR NOW WILL                 
CONTINUE IDEA OF NO LAKE BREEZE INTO KORD/KMDW TODAY.                           
ATTENTION THEN TURNS QUICKLY TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. AIRMASS AGAIN             
EXPECTED TO BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE TODAY...WITH SFC TEMPS AROUND 90             
AND DEWPOINTS IN MID 60S AGAIN YIELDING SBCAPES IN 1800-2300 J/KG               
RANGE AND LITTLE/NO CIN INDICATED BY FCST SOUNDINGS AFTER 18Z OR SO.            
INITIALLY...LARGER SCALE FORCING APPEARS MARGINAL WITH WEAK SHORT               
WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS IL DURING THE MORNING...THOUGH A COUPLE OF            
OTHER WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGHS APPROACHING IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.               
OTHER CONCERN IS LINEAR MCS MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF MN/IA THIS                  
MORNING. BEST INSTABILITY/SHEAR REMAINS TO OUR WEST OVER IA THROUGH             
THE DAY...THOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TSTMS CONTINUE TO                
PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST TOWARD NRN IL AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES. MESO-ETA             
(NAM) AND UCAR 4KM WRF BOTH BRING THIS ACTIVITY SOUTHEAST ACROSS                
FCST AREA THIS AFTN...THOUGH BOTH APPEAR A LITTLE SLOWER THAN                   
CURRENT 88-D MOSAIC SHOWS. CONSIDERING EXPECTED                                 
INSTABILITY...NAM/WRF SIGNALS AND POTENTIAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FOCUS              
FROM BOTH ADVANCING MCS AND AFOREMENTIONED NE IL REMNANT...WILL                 
INDICATE VCTS IN TERMINALS THIS AFTN...AS EARLY AS 17Z AT KRFD BASED            
ON MN MCS...AND AFTER 20Z CHI AREA TERMS FOR PEAK DIURNAL HEATING               
HOURS. DAY SHIFT CAN FINE TUNE TIMING AND UPGRADE TO TEMPO OR                   
PREVAILING IF NEEDED. EXPECTING ANY ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH/MOVE                   
SOUTH/EAST OF TERMINALS THIS EVENING AS LLJ REFOCUSES NOCTURNAL                 
ACTIVITY BACK INTO THE PLAINS TO OUR WEST. LIGHT WIND                           
FIELD...SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINTS AND POTENTIAL FOR WET GROUND FROM            
ANY AFTN TSTMS SUGGESTS MORE OF A HZ POSSIBILITY TNGT AND HAVE                  
HINTED AT.                                                                      
RATZER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION FOR MORNING ZONES/GRIDS...                                          
CONVECTION FIRED UP OVER NW IN AND LOWER MI DURING THE OVERNIGHT                
HOURS MOVING E. EARLIER MCS OVER NRN WIS HAS DISSIPATED FOR THE MOST            
PART EXCEPT FOR SMALL CLUSTER OF ACTIVE STORMS WEST CENTRAL WIS.                
HOWEVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SEEN IN MKX RADAR AND SFC OBS...DROPPING               
SOUTH TOWARD NRN IL. LATEST RUC TRIES TO WASH THIS OUT RATHER                   
QUICKLY AND SLY FLOW TAKES OVER AGAIN. FEW STORMS TRYING TO FORM                
ALONG AND N OF THE BOUNDARY BUT SEEM TO BE DYING AS QUICKLY AS THEY             
FORM. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE MORNING.                               
AMS SHOULD HEAT UP INTO LOWER 90S AGAIN TODAY WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN            
MID 60S. THIS WILL BE SIMILAR SCENARIO TO TUES WITH GOOD                        
INSTABILITY...WEAK SHEAR AND NO ORGANIZED LIFTING MECHANISM. EXPECT             
DISORGANIZED WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS AGAIN JUST ABOUT                  
ANYWHERE. SSW LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD LIMIT LAKE BREEZE TO THE NORTH             
SHORE AREA OF IL SIMILAR TO TUES...ALTHOUGH WIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY            
ENHANCE THE LAKE BREEZE SOMEWHAT. THE LAKE BREEZE/REMNANTS OF WIS               
OUTFLOW COULD BE FOCUS FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORMS. TRAILING VORT LOBE            
ASSOCIATED WITH NEB SQUALL LINE COULD MOVE ACROSS IL THIS AFTERNOON             
AND EVE TO ENHANCE TSTM CHANCES AS WELL. EXPECT STORM CHANCES TO                
DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER DARK AS ACTION REFOCUSES OVER CENTRAL PLAINS.            
THEN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG NEARLY STATIONARY                    
BOUNDARY FROM PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY. GFS                   
APPEARS TO BE THROWING A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INTO THE MIX THIS                 
WEEKEND...MOVING IT FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO THE LOW MS VLY             
AND TN VLY. WILL KEEP TSTM CHANCES GOING THROUGH MON. PATTERN SHIFT             
MON NIGHT/TUES STILL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH DRYING FOR MID                 
WEEK.                                                                           
ALLSOPP                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.LOT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
.IL...NONE.                                                                     
.IN...NONE.                                                                     
.LK MI...NONE.                                                                  
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
630 AM EST WED JUN 8 2005                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SATELLITE AND KIWX RADAR DATA HAVE SHOWN A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE               
ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH OF THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING.  ISOLATED                  
CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING TO THE SW OF THE FCST AREA ACRS E CNTRL                
ILLINOIS.  THE FCST AREA WILL REMAIN IN A MOIST UNSTABLE PATTERN                
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH WEAK S/WVS PASSING THROUGH.  IN THE                 
SHORT TERM...THE CONVECTION OVER E CNTRL ILLINOIS WAS BEING CAUSED              
BY A WEAK S/WV.  RUC40 AND NAM PIVOT THIS FEATURE INTO INDIANA BY               
21Z.  THIS FEATURE...COUPLED WITH DAY TIME HEATING...WILL RESULT IN             
A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER NRN INDIANA.  WITH THE LACK OF A                  
DISCERNIBLE LOW LVL FOCUSING MECHANISM AND WITH WEAK WIND FLOW                  
ALOFT...AM EXPECTING CONVECTION TO BE OF THE PULSE VARIETY...WITH               
SLOW MOVEMENT...AND WIDELY SCATTERED IN AREAL COVERAGE                          
(DISORGANIZED). THUS...WILL ONLY INDICATE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN THE            
TAFS WITH THE CB DESCRIPTOR ATTM.  THE BETTER CHC FOR                           
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY COME WITH A S/WV AND POSSIBLE OUTFLOW                 
BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION CURRENTLY GOING ON ACRS MN...WRN                       
WISCONSIN...AND NORTHERN IOWA.  THESE FEATURES WILL MOVE INTO                   
WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS BY LATE AFTN (21Z).  THUS...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS            
WILL LIKELY REFIRE THERE...SAGGING ESE INTO THE WRN CWFA BY                     
EVENING.  SINCE THIS IS BEYOND THE 12 HOUR TIME FRAME...CONFIDENCE              
IS STILL LOW AT THIS POINT AS TO THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE                        
CONVECTION...AND THUS DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR RADAR AND                  
SATELLITE TRENDS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CB DESCRIPTOR IN THE TAFS              
THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS (00Z-03Z) TO INDICATE                        
THUNDERSTORM THREAT.  THEREAFTER...CONVECTION SHOULD DWINDLE                    
OVERNIGHT WITH CONVECTION REFIRING AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS A WARM                  
...MOIST...UNSTABLE AIRMASS CONTINUES ACRS THE REGION.                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                                              
KIWX RADAR THIS MORNING CONTINUED TO SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND                 
THUNDERSTORMS GRAZING THE FAR NRN CWFA.  THESE SHOWERS AND                      
THUNDERSTORMS WERE IN RESPONSE TO SFC TO 925 MB TROF AXIS FROM SRN              
MICHIGAN INTO LAKE MICHIGAN...COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK UPR LVL SHEAR             
VORTICITY.  THE LOW LVL CONVERGENCE ASSOCD WITH THE TROF AXIS IS                
FCST TO DIMINISH TOWARD MORNING...AND THUS THE CONVECTION SHOULD DO             
ALSO.  HOWEVER...SINCE ZONES HAVE TO BE ISSUED ATTM...WILL HAVE TO              
MAINTAIN AT LEAST A 30 POP ACRS SRN MICHIGAN AND FAR NRN INDIANA FOR            
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  THEREAFTER...SUMMER LIKE WEATHER WILL                 
CONTINUE WITH A WARM...HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.  NAM DEPICTS A WEAK              
H5 TROF ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTN.  THIS FEATURE RESULTED IN                  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER IOWA AND MISSOURI TUESDAY AFTN AND               
EVENING.  SBCAPES ARE FCST TO BE OVER 3000 J/KG BY LATE THIS AFTN.              
THIS INSTABILITY...COMBINED WITH THE WEAK FEATURE ALOFT...SHOULD BE             
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  HOWEVER...THE COVERAGE            
SHOULD BE MINIMAL DUE TO A LACK OF LOW LVL FORCING/FOCUSING                     
MECHANISMS.                                                                     
FOR TONIGHT...THE FCST CONCERN WILL BE WHAT HAPPENS TO THE OUTFLOW              
BOUNDARY FROM ONGOING CONVECTION ACRS MN...SD...AND NW IOWA.  THE               
NAM TRIES TO PICK UP ON THIS FEATURE...BRINGING IT INTO                         
WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS DURING THE AFTN HOURS.  THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY                
...AND ITS ASSOCD WEAK S/WV ALOFT...SHOULD CAUSE SHOWERS AND                    
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS IN THE AFTN...WHICH            
SHOULD THEN PROPAGATE INTO THE WRN CWFA DURING THE EVENING HOURS.               
AS A RESULT...HAVE RAISED POPS IN THE WEST TO 40 PERCENT...WHILE                
MAINTAINING A 30 POP ELSEWHERE.                                                 
AS FOR TEMPS...MAV/MET GUIDANCE ARE FAIRLY CLOSE...SO NOT MUCH                  
WIGGLE ROOM AS THEY LOOK REASONABLE.  TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR             
90 TODAY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 OVERNIGHT.                     
LONG TERM...                                                                    
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.                                                       
THE EARLY SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MEDIUM             
RANGE FORECAST PERIOD WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING AROUND THE            
BACK SIDE OF THE WELL ESTABLISHED QUASI-STATIONARY BERMUDA HIGH. FOR            
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL BE VERY               
SIMILAR EACH DAY WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN               
UNITED STATES WITH HIGH HEIGHTS DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CENTRAL AND                 
EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL EJECT NUMEROUS             
PIECES OF ENERGY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST WHICH               
WILL FUEL DAILY ROUNDS OF CONVECTION AND ORGANIZED MCS ACTIVITY                 
WHILE MUCH LESS ORGANIZED DEEP MOIST CONVECTION AFFECTS THE OHIO                
VALLEY.                                                                         
OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS              
NOT AS CLEAR CUT WITH INSTABILITY IN PLACE BUT THERE WILL BE A LACK             
OF ANY ORGANIZED SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING MECHANISM THROUGH THE                   
UPCOMING WEEKEND. CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND ORGANIZATION WILL BE                
MODULATED BY MESOSCALE EFFECTS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION AS WELL AS              
ANY LOCAL EFFECTS OR BOUNDARIES THAT DEVELOP...AND THESE EFFECTS                
CANNOT BE RESOLVED IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HINTING             
THAT THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. MAY BREAK DOWN ENOUGH            
WITH TIME LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND TO ALLOW THE BAROCLINIC               
BOUNDARY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TO SINK SLOWLY SOUTH. THIS FRONT                
HAS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO ACT AS A CONDUIT FOR CONVECTION WITH                 
NUMEROUS MCS MOVING EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ONCE THIS FRONT BEGINS             
TO PRESS SOUTH THE CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL INCREASE. MODELS ALSO             
INCREASE PWAT VALUES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE               
GFS ALSO THROUGH AN INTERESTING CAVEAT INTO THE MIX AS THE 18Z/07               
AND 00Z/08 RUNS BRING THE REMNANTS OF A POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM               
NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS SOLUTION HAS A LOW                   
PROBABILITY OF VERIFYING GIVEN INHERENT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING                   
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AND SUBSEQUENT MOVEMENT...BUT WILL BEAR                    
WATCHING NONETHELESS.                                                           
THERE IS NO APPARENT STRONG SIGNAL FOR ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER            
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY WEAK WIND FIELDS AND A WARM                   
COLUMN. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ANY OF THE DAYS            
HOWEVER GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY AND AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE.             
THE BOTTOM LINE IS THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH            
DAY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY...BUT THE BULK OF ALL OF THESE DAYS IS              
LIKELY TO BE RAIN FREE WITH ONLY PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND                 
STORMS.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.IN...NONE                                                                      
.MI...NONE                                                                      
.OH...NONE                                                                      
.LK MI...NONE                                                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION/SHORT TERM...HICKMAN                                                   
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1155 AM EDT WED JUN 8 2005                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ARE SHRA/TSRA               
COVERAGE/STRENGTH.                                                              
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A TROF OVER THE NW CONUS WITH             
A FLAT DOWNSTREAM RDG OVER THE GREAT LAKES. CLOSED H5 LOW/VORT WAS              
LOCATED OVER WRN ND WHILE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SHRTWV FROM DAKOTAS              
MCS LAST NIGHT...WAS LIFTING NE THROUGH NRN MN. ONGOING MCS AND                 
REMNANTS FROM THE SYSTEM HAS LEFT A CONVOLUTED SURFACE PATTERN OVER             
THE REGION. SFC LOW PRES REMAINED OVER ND BUT CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW                
BOUNDARIES AND ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND RAIN COOLED AIR OVER THE NW              
WI LEAVES A LESS CLEAR PICTURE DOWNSTREAM. HOWEVER...A WARM FRONTAL             
BOUNDARY STILL IS APPARENT VCNTY OF KGRB WITH 15Z TEMPS TO NEAR 80F             
AND DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 60S OVER E CNTRL WI. RADAR INDICATED               
DIMINISHING -SHRA OVER W UPR MI AND A SMALL AREA OF SHRA OVER S                 
CNTRL UPR MI SUPPORTED BY 300K-305K ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE                
FRONT. OTHERWISE...VIS SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER              
OVER UPR MI AND UPSTREAM THROUGH NRN WI.                                        
POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA REDEVELOPMENT HINGES ON AMOUNT OF CLEARING              
AND RESULTING DESTABILIZATION. MODIFIED COMBINATION OF OBSERVED AND             
12Z RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THAT IF WARMING OCCURS WITH                     
TEMP/DEWPOINT TO 79/65 (MOST LIKELY OVER THE SW NEAR THE WI BORDER)             
CAPE VALUES WOULD CLIMB TO THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. EVEN THOUGH                
SOME OF THE CLOUDS OVER THE AREA ARE RELATIVELY THIN...EXPECT THAT              
CLEARING/HEATING WILL OCCUR TOO LATE TO BRING ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION            
THIS AFTERNOON FOR HIGHER SHRA/TSRA CHANCES. TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE            
MID 70S BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE FAR SW IF ONLY MODERATE AMOUNT OF            
HEATING OCCURS WOULD BE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME AMOUNT OF SFC BASED               
CINH DEPICTED ON THE SNDGS. WHILE 900-800 SW FLOW OF 25-30 KT IS                
EXPECTED...WITH MN SHRTWV ENERGY MOVING NE ANY FORCING MECHANISM FOR            
ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK. SO...ONLY CHANCE                   
SHRA/TSRA MENTIONED OVER THE CWA...SW OF KP59-KISQ. FCST IS IN LINE             
WITH SHIFT OF SPC SLIGHT RISK AREA TO THE SOUTH OF UPR MI.                      
HOWEVER...IF DEEP CONVECTION OCCURS LOW LEVEL AND 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES            
WOULD STILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLD SVR STORM WITH LARGE HAIL            
OR DAMAGING WIND AS THE MAIN THREATS.                                           
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JLB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1012 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
REMNANTS OF MRNG DAMAGING MCS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE W CNTRL WI                     
COUNTIES...ALTHOUGH THE RAIN SHUD BE E OF THE FA BY NOON AT THE                 
LATEST. ATMOSPHERE OVER MUCH OF SRN AND CNTRL MN AND W CNTRL WI IS              
FAIRLY WORKED OVER IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM. WITH DENSE CLOUD                 
COVER AND TEMPS/DEW POINTS WELL BELOW THE READINGS AT THIS TIME                 
YDAY...CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOOKS TO            
BE SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED ACROSS MOST OF THE FA DESPITE THE PRESENCE             
OF SEVERAL BOUNDARIES AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPR LOW IN N DAKOTA.             
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BOTH THE 12Z RUC AND THE 12Z WORKSTATION NAM              
ARE CONSISTENT IN BREAKING OUT PRECIP THRU THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS             
PRIMARILY W CNTRL WI. POTENTIAL TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH WAA AHEAD OF               
APPROACHING SFC TROF...AS WELL AS VORT MAX FCST TO STRENGTHEN OVER              
CNTRL MN THIS AFTN AND PUSH EWRD. RETOOLED THE POP/WX CONFIGURATIONS            
THRU TONIGHT TO CAPTURE THIS THINKING...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS BEING             
MID EVENING OVER W CNTRL WI.                                                    
OTHER PRIMARY CHANGES TO THE FCST WERE TO DECREASE MAX TEMPS FOR                
TODAY. ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER IS SHOWING SIGNS OF THINNING FROM MSP TO            
LXL...WITH THE RAIN THAT FELL OVERNIGHT AND THE LOWER STARTING TEMPS            
/COMPARED WITH YDAY/...HEATING SHUD BE RELATIVELY LIMITED. CURRENT              
TEMPS ARE 3 TO 4 DEGS LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST IN MOST AREAS.                 
KAT                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 310 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2005)                           
BOW MOVING RAPIDLY EAST AND SHOULD BE THROUGH MOST OF TWIN CITIES               
BY FORECAST ISSUANCE AND THEN THROUGH WI BY LATER MORNING. WILL                 
LIKELY LET FLOOD WATCH END AT 7 AM. TROUGH/OCCLUSION WILL BE MOVING             
INTO EASTERN MN THIS AFTERNOON AND 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE IN THE 35 TO            
40 KNOT RANGE AND STRONG THETA E ADVECTION WILL BE SETTING UP AGAIN             
AHEAD OF TROUGH. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION OF SEVERE             
IN EASTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE MORE IN AGREEMENT MOVING            
FRONT AND FORCING THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT SO HAVE              
REMOVED POPS BUT WILL ONLY BE FOR A SHORT TIME. LONG WAVE TROUGH                
WILL ALLOW FRONT AND THETA E ADVECTION TO WAVE BACK NORTH AGAIN                 
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.MN...NONE.                                                                     
.WI...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT                                         
940 AM MDT WED JUN 8 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WILL UPDATE THIS MORNING TO ADJUST POPS OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA.                 
RATHER COMPLEX PATTERN CONTINUES WITH THE COUNTY WARNING AREA                   
BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST.                         
PRECIPITATION HAS DECREASED OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL LOWER POPS              
TO REFLECT THIS. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.           
EMANUEL                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 545 AM MDT WED JUN 8 2005                             
ANOTHER COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING.               
ONE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA LAST                
NIGHT AND IT DID NOT GET PULLED OUT INTO THE PLAINS WITH THE MCS NOW            
AFFECTING MN AND WI. THIS SYSTEM HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF A SLOW WESTWARD             
MOVEMENT BUT BY 6 AM IT IS EXPECTED TO START MOVING SLOWLY TO THE               
NORTHEAST. THEREFORE ANY PRECIP FROM THIS SYSTEM SHOULD ONLY AFFECT             
THE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF BLAINE AND FERGUS COUNTY THIS MORNING.              
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA AFFECTING THE            
DILLON AREA. THE RUC MODEL LINGERS THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THIS               
REGION MOST OF THE DAY. THEREFORE WENT WITH HIGH POPS FOR MUCH OF               
BEAVERHEAD AND THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MADISON AND GALLATIN                    
COUNTIES FOR TODAY. SNOW IS LIKELY THIS MORNING ABOVE 6000 FEET IN              
THIS REGION.                                                                    
OTHERWISE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE               
AREA THIS MORNING...DUE TO THE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS THAT DEVELOP              
ON TUESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH OVER               
THE REMAINDER OF NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA AS THE AIRMASS             
BECOMES SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE BUT ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED.                    
THEREFORE I HAVE ALSO ALLOWED THE FLOOD WARNING TO EXPIRE FOR                   
GLACIER COUNTY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL...ABOUT 10 DEGREES                
BELOW NORMAL.                                                                   
FOR TONIGHT EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE REGION AS A NEW UPPER             
LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS NORTHEAST OF HAVRE.                                          
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...EXPECT A SLOW DRYING TREND AS ALL OF              
THESE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW SYSTEMS FINALLY START TO DRIFT AWAY AND            
THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE BY LATE             
IN THE DAY OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER               
LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES THOUGH. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO                 
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BRUSDA                      
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO                   
INDICATE THAT THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BE INFLUENCED BY UPPER LEVEL            
TROUGHING DURING THIS PERIOD. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS HAVE               
BECOME A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THE ECMWF SENDING ENERGY FURTHER              
SOUTH THAN THE GFSLR. DUE TO MODEL UNCERTAINTY WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP            
A BROAD BRUSH FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND....WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE              
TO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING SLIGHTLY BELOW            
SEASONAL NORMS. MPJ                                                             
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ONLY MINOR INCONSISTENCIES IN                  
MODELS DURING THIS PERIOD. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS CWA             
MONDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE                       
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. WEAK UPPER LEVEL             
RIDGE BUILDS IN TUESDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS. THE EXCEPTION IS ALONG              
THE DIVIDE WHERE MOISTURE IN AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE               
RESPONSIBLE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DOWNSLOPE FLOW            
WILL HELP KEEP PLAINS DRY AND WARM TEMPERATURES TO NEAR SEASONAL                
AVERAGES BY WEDNESDAY. EK                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
UPDATED AT 1145Z                                                                
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS WITH ASSOCIATED               
MID LEVEL AND SURFACE LOWS OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS.                
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY VFR OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND             
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH                 
LOCAL MVFR AFTER 18Z AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS            
DEVELOP. IN FAR SOUTHWEST MONTANA NEAR THE IDAHO BORDER...WIDESPREAD            
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN LOW CEILINGS WITH AREAS IFR DUE TO              
LOW VISIBILITIES IN SNOW NEAR MONIDA PASS.                                      
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
GTF  62  41  62  43 /  20  30  30  20                                           
CTB  60  39  59  41 /  20  30  30  20                                           
HLN  62  43  63  45 /  30  40  50  20                                           
BZN  60  36  62  38 /  40  30  30  20                                           
WEY  47  30  56  33 /  60  40  30  20                                           
DLN  54  35  59  37 /  80  40  40  20                                           
HVR  64  44  64  46 /  40  30  30  20                                           
LWT  60  39  60  41 /  30  40  30  20                                           
&&                                                                              
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...BRUSDA                                                             
LONG TERM....MPJ/EK                                                             
AVIATION...MPJ                                                                  
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   mt                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
1045 AM EDT WED JUN 8 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM...HAVE ALREADY UPDATED ZFP TO REMOVE MENTION OF                     
FOG...OTHERWISE...FCST IS ON TRACK WITH SCATTERED AFTN TSTMS                    
DEVELOPING MAINLY W OF HIGHWAY 17. DUE TO WEAK STEERING CURRENTS                
THOSE FOLKS THAT DO GET THE STORMS WILL EXPERIENCE HEAVY RAINFALL               
AS PW'S ARE AROUND 1.5". NEARLY NON-EXISTENT PRESSURE GRADIENT                  
WITH HIGH PRES DUE E OF THE CAROLINA COAST SO EXPECT LIGHT WINDS                
WITH A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY.                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...SATELLITE AND SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE FOG AND            
LOW CLOUDS HAVE BURNED OFF. THEREFORE VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE            
OF ANY CONVECTIVE CELLS WHICH SHOULD BE MOST PREVELANT WEST OF                  
HIGHWAY 17 TODAY.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...WEAK GRADIENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE NC COASTAL WATERS. LAND            
BREEZE COMPONENT ABOUT OVER AND WINDS COMING AROUND TO SE/S AS                  
EXPECTED WITH DIURNAL HEATING. SOME OF THE GUID (RUC 40 AND NGM) ARE            
INC SUSTAINED WINDS SPEEDS TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON. NOT OUT OF THE              
QUESTION THAT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING PRODUCES A LITTLE GUSTINESS BUT              
WITH WEAK GRAD WOULD PREFER TO STICK WITH THE MME/MMG (NAM/GFS)                 
NUMBERS WHICH ARE MAINLY AROUND 10 KT SUSTAINED. LATEST NAM-12 ALSO             
SUPPORTS THIS. THUS LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE EXPECTED TO ONGOING MARINE             
FORECAST.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WS/JME                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
1020 AM EDT WED JUN 8 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TODAY)...                                                          
SCT THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS                 
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST TO AROUND 90                     
NORTHWEST. SERN FCST AREA IS LOWER ON TEMPS WITH THE EXPECTED SHOWER            
ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND              
90 HERE AS WELL...BUT BY THAT TIME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AND CLOUD               
COVER IF NOT PRECIP WILL HOLD DOWN MAXES.                                       
MODIFIED SOUNDING IS LOADED AND PWATS INCREASE TO AN IMPRESSIVE                 
1.67. LACK OF FLOW WILL HAVE ANY OF THESE STORMS PRODUCE LOCALIZED              
FLOODING AND SPS WAS ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL IN THE STORMS            
THAT DO DEVELOP. ALSO REQUESTED GOES RAPID SCAN TO MONITOR                      
DEVELOPMENT OF CU THIS AFTERNOON.                                               
IT WON'T BE A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS AS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SCT.               
HOWEVER...INCREASED PWATS AND THE MODIFIED CAPE OF 33-3500 IS                   
IMPRESSIVE. WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL IS THERE AND WE'LL HAVE TO KEEP            
AN EYE ON OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS. H5 VORT WILL BE FOUND SOMEWHERE OVER            
CWA AND MODELS HAVE IT MORE PREVALENT IN THE EAST. THE VORT ISN'T               
STRONG...AND SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS...BUT IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO SPARK                 
ACTIVITY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.                                            
DO NOT EXPECT TO CHANGE THE PUBLIC FORECAST AT ALL FOR THIS                     
AFTERNOON. CURRENT FCST HAS SCT STORMS AND HIGHS AROUND WHERE THEY              
ARE EXPECTED...AND A NOD TOWARDS THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.                  
FRANKS                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (12Z-12Z)...                                                          
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER TAF SITES WITH                 
GENERALLY MVFR VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.  THE EXCEPTION WAS KLUK WHERE             
VLIFR CONDITIONS.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS                 
OVER CENTRAL IN/OH.                                                             
HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPO FOR TSRA TO LATTER IN THE DAY.  LATEST RUC                  
SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON CURRENT CONDITIONS THAN THE NAM.               
IT SHOWS MID LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER IL DRIFTING INTO CENTRAL                 
INDIANA AT 18Z AND THEN LIKELY OVER THE REGION OF THE TAFS BY 00Z.              
THUS HAVE PUSHED BACK TSRA TO LATTER IN THE DAY DURING PEAK                     
DAYTIME HEATING.  AFT 00Z...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO LAST                
NIGHT EXCEPT FOR MAYBE A FEW MORE CLOUDS.                                       
TIPTON                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 328 AM EDT WED JUN 8 2005)                                              
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...                                      
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MRNG AS OH VLY REMAINS UNDER UPR RIDGE.              
TSTMS REMAIN WELL OFF TO NORTH AND WEST INVOF FRNTL BNDRY DRAPED                
ACRS CNTRL GRT LKS.  TEMPS WERE AROUND 70 DEG ATTM.                             
MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE SHORT TERM AS UPR RIDGE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED              
ACRS EASTERN CONUS.  DIURNAL HEATING AND SBCAPES APPCHG 2000 J/KG               
WILL AGAIN BE MAIN CATALYSTS IN TSTM DVLPMNT TODAY.  CHANCES FOR                
TSTMS DO LOOK BETTER THAN TUES AS MID LVL S/WV MOVES ACRS REGION                
THIS AFTN.  THIS FEATURE SHWNG UP NICELY ON WATER VAPOR SAT THIS                
MRNG ACRS MID MISSISSIPPI VLY.  HAVE BUMPED UP POPS A BIT DUE TO                
EXPECTED BETTER COVERAGE...RANGING FROM 30 POPS IN WEST CNTRL OH                
TO 40 POPS ACRS SRN 1/2 FCST AREA.  TSTMS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT                
AT PEAK HEATING DURING AFTN HOURS.  HOWEVER...NOT OUT OF QUESTION               
THAT MAY SEE CONVECTION BEGIN TO DVLP AS ERLY AS MID MRNG (14-15Z)              
ACRS TRI STATE AREA AS S/WV APPCHS FROM WEST.  WHILE AN ISOLD SVR               
STORM IS POSSIBLE...PRIMARY CONCERN FROM TSTMS WILL BE POTENTIAL                
FOR HVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.  MODEL SOUNDINGS INDCG RISE                
IN PWATS TO 1.8-1.9 IN THIS AFTN AND WITH STORM MOTION PROGGED AT               
LESS THAN 10KTS...GOING TO SEE SOME VERY SLOW MOVING TSTMS.  THUS               
HAVE INDICATED HVY RAIN IN ZONES.  TSTMS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVNG               
AS S/WV MOVES EAST OF FCST AREA AND DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST.                    
PINPOINTING EXACT DETAILS REGARDING STRENGTH/TIMING OF MID LVL                  
VORTS THRU REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO VARY BTWN 00Z GFS                
AND NAM SOLNS.  WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR THURS AND                         
FRI...FOCUSING MAX POPS DURING AFTN/EVNG HOURS IN ACCORD WITH PEAK              
HEATING.  HAVE ALSO ADDED SLGT CHC POPS TO OVERNIGHTS THURS AND                 
FRI NIGHTS.  ALTHOUGH INSTABILITIES WILL BE LOWER...ANY MID LVL                 
FORCING THAT CAN WORK ACRS THE FCST AREA MAY BE ABLE TO KICK OFF                
AN ISOLD TSTM OR TWO.  FRNTL BNDRY WILL REMAIN ACRS GRT LKS INTO                
WEEKEND AS UPR RIDGE REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE ACRS EASTERN CONUS.                
THIS WILL KEEP WARM HUMID AIRMASS ACRS OH VLY.                                  
TEMPS...MORE CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED AREAL COVERAGE TO               
CONVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEG COOLER THAN TUES MAXS.                     
WARMEST TEMPS WILL RESIDE ACRS NRN FCST AREA WITH U80S EXPECTED.                
MID 80S EXPECTED FOR THURS/FRI.  GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO                 
PUMP INTO OH VLY...AND DEWPTS PROGGED TO AROUND 70 BY THURS/FRI.                
MAV GUID HAS BEEN VERY GOOD AS OF LATE...AND SAW NO REASON TO                   
STRAY.                                                                          
RYAN                                                                            
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                         
ADJUSTED POPS SAT TO CARRY A CHANCE ALL DAY.  OTHERWISE...MADE NO               
CHANGES TO EXTENDED.  PREV LONG TERM DISCUSSION FROM TUES AFTN                  
FOLLOWS BELOW.                                                                  
RYAN                                                                            
(ISSUED 251 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2005)                                              
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                           
WARM AND HUMID PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM. BERMUDA             
HIGH WILL SHIELD THE REGION FROM MAJOR SYSTEMS, BUT A MOIST UNSTABLE            
AIRMASS WILL PERSIST. LACK OF STRONG UPPER SUPPORT AND SURFACE                  
CONVERGENCE POINTS TO A DIURNAL PATTERN OF DAYTIME CONVECTION AND               
NIGHTTIME DISSIPATION. THEREFORE, WENT WITH CHANCE POPS EACH DAY AND            
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AT NIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN MAY INCREASE ON               
THE WEEKEND WITH THE POSSIBLE INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE.                      
PERSISTENT PATTERN WILL ALLOW CONTINUATION OF NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL              
TEMPS, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO               
UPPER 60S.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
632 AM EDT WED JUN 8 2005                                                       
.AVIATION (12Z-12Z)...                                                          
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER TAF SITES WITH                 
GENERALLY MVFR VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.  THE EXCEPTION WAS KLUK WHERE             
VLIFR CONDITIONS.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS                 
OVER CENTRAL IN/OH.                                                             
HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPO FOR TSRA TO LATTER IN THE DAY.  LATEST RUC                  
SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON CURRENT CONDITIONS THAN THE NAM.               
IT SHOWS MID LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER IL DRIFTING INTO CENTRAL                 
INDIANA AT 18Z AND THEN LIKELY OVER THE REGION OF THE TAFS BY 00Z.              
THUS HAVE PUSHED BACK TSRA TO LATTER IN THE DAY DURING PEAK                     
DAYTIME HEATING.  AFT 00Z...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO LAST                
NIGHT EXCEPT FOR MAYBE A FEW MORE CLOUDS.                                       
TIPTON                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 328 AM EDT WED JUN 8 2005)                                              
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...                                      
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MRNG AS OH VLY REMAINS UNDER UPR RIDGE.              
TSTMS REMAIN WELL OFF TO NORTH AND WEST INVOF FRNTL BNDRY DRAPED                
ACRS CNTRL GRT LKS.  TEMPS WERE AROUND 70 DEG ATTM.                             
MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE SHORT TERM AS UPR RIDGE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED              
ACRS EASTERN CONUS.  DIURNAL HEATING AND SBCAPES APPCHG 2000 J/KG               
WILL AGAIN BE MAIN CATALYSTS IN TSTM DVLPMNT TODAY.  CHANCES FOR                
TSTMS DO LOOK BETTER THAN TUES AS MID LVL S/WV MOVES ACRS REGION                
THIS AFTN.  THIS FEATURE SHWNG UP NICELY ON WATER VAPOR SAT THIS                
MRNG ACRS MID MISSISSIPPI VLY.  HAVE BUMPED UP POPS A BIT DUE TO                
EXPECTED BETTER COVERAGE...RANGING FROM 30 POPS IN WEST CNTRL OH                
TO 40 POPS ACRS SRN 1/2 FCST AREA.  TSTMS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT                
AT PEAK HEATING DURING AFTN HOURS.  HOWEVER...NOT OUT OF QUESTION               
THAT MAY SEE CONVECTION BEGIN TO DVLP AS ERLY AS MID MRNG (14-15Z)              
ACRS TRI STATE AREA AS S/WV APPCHS FROM WEST.  WHILE AN ISOLD SVR               
STORM IS POSSIBLE...PRIMARY CONCERN FROM TSTMS WILL BE POTENTIAL                
FOR HVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.  MODEL SOUNDINGS INDCG RISE                
IN PWATS TO 1.8-1.9 IN THIS AFTN AND WITH STORM MOTION PROGGED AT               
LESS THAN 10KTS...GOING TO SEE SOME VERY SLOW MOVING TSTMS.  THUS               
HAVE INDICATED HVY RAIN IN ZONES.  TSTMS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVNG               
AS S/WV MOVES EAST OF FCST AREA AND DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST.                    
PINPOINTING EXACT DETAILS REGARDING STRENGTH/TIMING OF MID LVL                  
VORTS THRU REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO VARY BTWN 00Z GFS                
AND NAM SOLNS.  WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR THURS AND                         
FRI...FOCUSING MAX POPS DURING AFTN/EVNG HOURS IN ACCORD WITH PEAK              
HEATING.  HAVE ALSO ADDED SLGT CHC POPS TO OVERNIGHTS THURS AND                 
FRI NIGHTS.  ALTHOUGH INSTABILITIES WILL BE LOWER...ANY MID LVL                 
FORCING THAT CAN WORK ACRS THE FCST AREA MAY BE ABLE TO KICK OFF                
AN ISOLD TSTM OR TWO.  FRNTL BNDRY WILL REMAIN ACRS GRT LKS INTO                
WEEKEND AS UPR RIDGE REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE ACRS EASTERN CONUS.                
THIS WILL KEEP WARM HUMID AIRMASS ACRS OH VLY.                                  
TEMPS...MORE CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED AREAL COVERAGE TO               
CONVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEG COOLER THAN TUES MAXS.                     
WARMEST TEMPS WILL RESIDE ACRS NRN FCST AREA WITH U80S EXPECTED.                
MID 80S EXPECTED FOR THURS/FRI.  GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO                 
PUMP INTO OH VLY...AND DEWPTS PROGGED TO AROUND 70 BY THURS/FRI.                
MAV GUID HAS BEEN VERY GOOD AS OF LATE...AND SAW NO REASON TO                   
STRAY.                                                                          
RYAN                                                                            
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                         
ADJUSTED POPS SAT TO CARRY A CHANCE ALL DAY.  OTHERWISE...MADE NO               
CHANGES TO EXTENDED.  PREV LONG TERM DISCUSSION FROM TUES AFTN                  
FOLLOWS BELOW.                                                                  
RYAN                                                                            
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 132 AM EDT WED JUN 8 2005)                                              
AVIATION (06Z-06Z)...                                                           
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL APPALACHIANS                  
WITH BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER TAF SITES.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS              
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.  LATEST SURFACE OBS SHOWING SOME FOG BEGINNING              
TO DEVELOP.                                                                     
FOG WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN THIS MORNING WITH KDAY...KCMH AND KLCK             
SEEING MORE OF AN MVFR SUN RISE SURPRISE.  KILN AND KCVG WILL DROP              
INTO IFR WITH KLUK DROPPING INTO VLIFR.                                         
MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS TAF SITES TODAY WHICH WILL                   
RESULT IN MORE CLOUD COVER.  A MID LEVEL WAVE IN BEDDED IN THE DEEP             
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CREATE A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR SCATTERED                     
CONVECTION.  FOR ALL TAF SITES HAVE CB MENTIONED FOR MUCH OF THE                
DAY AS THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION EXITS PRETTY MUCH FROM 14/15Z ON               
WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT A 4 HOUR TEMPO                   
GROUP WITH TSRA WHICH FOCUSES ON THE BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT.  WIND                  
FIELDS SUGGEST SLOW MOVING STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOTS OF                  
RAIN.  THIS MEANS IF STORMS FORM NEAR OR OVER TAF SITES THAT THE                
AIRPORT COULD BE AFFECTED FOR A WHILE.                                          
TIPTON                                                                          
(ISSUED 251 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2005)                                              
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                           
WARM AND HUMID PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM. BERMUDA             
HIGH WILL SHIELD THE REGION FROM MAJOR SYSTEMS, BUT A MOIST UNSTABLE            
AIRMASS WILL PERSIST. LACK OF STRONG UPPER SUPPORT AND SURFACE                  
CONVERGENCE POINTS TO A DIURNAL PATTERN OF DAYTIME CONVECTION AND               
NIGHTTIME DISSIPATION. THEREFORE, WENT WITH CHANCE POPS EACH DAY AND            
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AT NIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN MAY INCREASE ON               
THE WEEKEND WITH THE POSSIBLE INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE.                      
PERSISTENT PATTERN WILL ALLOW CONTINUATION OF NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL              
TEMPS, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO               
UPPER 60S.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
1050 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
PRECIP HAS EXITED THE EASTERN CWA...AND BIGGEST ISSUE RIGHT NOW IS              
STRATUS DECK THAT HAS DEVELOPING ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE COOL POOL              
BEHIND THE PRECIP. EXPECT THAT THIS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AND                
SHIFT EAST AS THE SURFACE FRONT AND UPPER WAVE SLIDE FARTHER EAST               
THROUGH THE CWA...BUT UNTIL THEN...HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT WHAT EFFECT              
THE CLOUDS WILL HAVE ON TEMPS. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE GOING HIGHS AS              
IS...WITH EXPECTATION THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR THE STRATUS AND             
SEE A REBOUND IN TEMPS AS WEST WINDS HELP WITH MIXING.  HOWEVER...              
WILL HAVE TO PLAY WITH HOURLY TEMP TREND IN THE GRIDS.                          
WILL LEAVE GOING PRECIP CHANCE FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING              
AS IS...AS 12Z RUC...AND MORESO THE NAM...SHOW THE FRONT A LITTLE               
BIT SLOWER THAN GOING FORECAST HAD. HOWEVER...CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT             
MAY ALSO BE AFFECTED BY RECOVERY FROM STRATUS/COLD POOL...AND THIS              
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. WILL KEEP GOING CHANCE OF TSRA IN SOUTHEAST            
CWA FOR LATE AFTERNOON...AND IF STORMS DO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...            
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO GET SOME SEVERE              
STORMS IN FAR SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON              
AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE FRONT EXITS THE CWA.                               
WILL UPDATE ZFP SHORTLY TO REMOVE MORNING PRECIP MENTION AND BUMP UP            
CLOUD WORDING ALONG AND EAST OF I-29 THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.                   
&&                                                                              
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
 HACKER                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN                                             
1039 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AT MID-MORNING...AS ONLY                 
ONGOING CONVECTION IS TO THE EAST OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER.                       
TEMPERATURES AT 15Z GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH                   
SOUTHWEST WINDS. DEWPOINTS UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.                              
WEAK SHEAR AXIS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH AT                 
LEAST FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR MEMPHIS INDICATE THAT THE                  
AIRMASS IS CERTAINLY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING CONVECTION. RUC SOUNDING              
MORE UNSTABLE THAN THE NAM WITH CAPES 4000 ON THE RUC WITH 2500 ON              
THE NAM THIS AFTERNOON.                                                         
SEE NO REASON TO MAKE MUCH CHANGE TO GOING FORECAST. NO UPDATES                 
CURRENTLY PLANNED.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AR...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
MS...NONE.                                                                      
TN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WAGNER                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   tn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
300 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION FOR AFTEROON ZONES/GRIDS...                                         
FORECAST CONCERNS TONIGHT WILL CENTER ON SHORT TERM SEVERE WEATHER              
POTENTIAL AND THEN CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.                      
ABBREVIATED DISCUSSION THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER             
ACROSS THE AREA. MCS WHICH MOVED ACROSS DAKOTAS LAST NIGHT NOW                  
BEGINNING TO TRACK INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. REGIONAL RADAR                   
SHOWING APEX OF BOW ECHO ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. FURTHER TO               
THE NORTH HAVE HAD NUMEROUS STORMS DEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY               
ASSOCIATED WITH MCS. STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THIS OUTFLOW              
BOUNDARY HAVE BEEN PRODUCING RATHER INTENSE OUTFLOWS OF THEIR OWN               
AND EXPECTING THREATS THIS EVENING TO INCLUDE WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH              
ALONG WITH SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH FREEZING LEVELS AROUND              
14K FEET AND WBZ HEIGHTS AROUND 12K FEET.                                       
OTHER CONCERN THIS EVENING IS WITH ANY MESOSCALE ENHANCED WINDS.                
APPROACHING MCS HAS PRODUCED QUITE A STRONG MESOSCALE PRESSURE                  
PATTERN WITH MESOHIGH BUILDING INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. WIND GUSTS              
TO 50 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN IOWA ON BACK                
SIDE OF MESOHIGH. EXPECTING MUCH OF THIS STRONGER WIND FIELD TO                 
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AS MESOHIGH               
DROPS SOUTHWARD BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FOR POSSIBLY STRONGER             
SURFACE WIND SPEEDS FOR A BRIEF TIME THIS EVENING.                              
OTHERWISE...TONIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS              
EVENING WITH THREAT REFOCUSING SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS                  
TONIGHT WITH STRONG NOCTURNAL JET. NOT MANY CHANGES MADE TO THE                 
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVES PROGRESS             
THROUGH UPPER LEVEL SWRYLS. STRONGEST MID LEVEL FLOW STILL PROGGED              
TO REMAIN TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST SO IT APPEARS AS THOUGH WILL                
HAVE SEVERAL DAYS OF HIGH INSTABILITY/MARGINAL SHEAR SCENARIOS.                 
SOME CONFLICTING SIGNALS TOWARD BEGINNING/MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH              
TIME OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TO DAMPEN RIDGE AND FINALLY                 
BRING A SIGNFICANT FROPA TO THE AREA. HAVE RELIED MORE ON 06Z GFS               
SOLUTION FOR THIS PACKAGE WHICH GETS SOME SUPPORT FROM GEM/ECMWF IN             
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE AREA TUES/WEDS. WILL END             
PRECIP CHANCES EARLY TUESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR                 
WORKING IN.                                                                     
NDM                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS...                                            
...WILL KEEP PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS HERE AS TIME IS SHORT             
DUE TO INCREASING TS ACTIVITY...                                                
WINDS AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL REMAIN MAIN TAF CONCERNS.                      
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED INTO THE ROCKFORD AREA AND SCATTERED            
CONVECTION HAS INITIATED AT 18Z.  THE TSRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO              
REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED OR IN SMALL CLUSTERS...SO WILL NOT GO                   
PREVAILING TS IN THE TAFS INITIALLY...VCTS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT.                
WINDS LOOKING TO GO GUSTY SW TO W FOR A COUPLE HOURS FOLLOWING THE              
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY BEFORE SETTING BACK TO GENERALLY SOUTHERLY.             
EXCEPT INVOF TS...CIGS/VIS SHOULD REMAIN VFR INTO THE EVENING.                  
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET AND AFTER                    
MIDNIGHT...WINDS SHOULD GO NEAR CALM...AND WITH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL              
MOISTURE...LOOKING FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES IN HAZE INTO THE MORNING               
HOURS.                                                                          
CONVECTION EARLIER IN THE NIGHT HAS PUSHED A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY              
INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH 88D...LOCAL MESONET              
AND METARS PLACING WIND SHIFT ROUGHLY FROM NORTH OF KRFD...TO NEAR              
KPWK...TO ABOUT THE FORMER KCGX. BOUNDARY APPEARS TO HAVE STALLED               
AND MAY BE DRIFTING BACK NORTH...WITH SOME SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO               
WIND FIELD AT ALL TAF SITES. QUESTION ARISES WITH WEAK GRADIENT AND             
CONVECTIVELY DISTURBED LIGHT WIND FIELD THIS MORNING AS TO WHETHER              
LAKE BREEZE/OUTFLOW WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH A BIT FARTHER INLAND THAN              
OTHERWISE EXPECTED. NAM/GFS/RUC ALL INDICATE 950 HPA WINDS FROM                 
SOUTH AT 10-14 KTS TODAY...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST WEAK SOUTHEAST LAKE              
BREEZE INTO LAKE CO IL...BUT REMAINING EAST OF KORD/KMDW. SOME                  
RECOVERY TO SOUTH FLOW BEHIND OUTFLOW ALREADY...SO FOR NOW WILL                 
CONTINUE IDEA OF NO LAKE BREEZE INTO KORD/KMDW TODAY.                           
ATTENTION THEN TURNS QUICKLY TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. AIRMASS AGAIN             
EXPECTED TO BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE TODAY...WITH SFC TEMPS AROUND 90             
AND DEWPOINTS IN MID 60S AGAIN YIELDING SBCAPES IN 1800-2300 J/KG               
RANGE AND LITTLE/NO CIN INDICATED BY FCST SOUNDINGS AFTER 18Z OR SO.            
INITIALLY...LARGER SCALE FORCING APPEARS MARGINAL WITH WEAK SHORT               
WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS IL DURING THE MORNING...THOUGH A COUPLE OF            
OTHER WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGHS APPROACHING IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.               
OTHER CONCERN IS LINEAR MCS MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF MN/IA THIS                  
MORNING. BEST INSTABILITY/SHEAR REMAINS TO OUR WEST OVER IA THROUGH             
THE DAY...THOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TSTMS CONTINUE TO                
PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST TOWARD NRN IL AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES. MESO-ETA             
(NAM) AND UCAR 4KM WRF BOTH BRING THIS ACTIVITY SOUTHEAST ACROSS                
FCST AREA THIS AFTN...THOUGH BOTH APPEAR A LITTLE SLOWER THAN                   
CURRENT 88-D MOSAIC SHOWS. CONSIDERING EXPECTED                                 
INSTABILITY...NAM/WRF SIGNALS AND POTENTIAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FOCUS              
FROM BOTH ADVANCING MCS AND AFOREMENTIONED NE IL REMNANT...WILL                 
INDICATE VCTS IN TERMINALS THIS AFTN...AS EARLY AS 17Z AT KRFD BASED            
ON MN MCS...AND AFTER 20Z CHI AREA TERMS FOR PEAK DIURNAL HEATING               
HOURS. DAY SHIFT CAN FINE TUNE TIMING AND UPGRADE TO TEMPO OR                   
PREVAILING IF NEEDED. EXPECTING ANY ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH/MOVE                   
SOUTH/EAST OF TERMINALS THIS EVENING AS LLJ REFOCUSES NOCTURNAL                 
ACTIVITY BACK INTO THE PLAINS TO OUR WEST. LIGHT WIND                           
FIELD...SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINTS AND POTENTIAL FOR WET GROUND FROM            
ANY AFTN TSTMS SUGGESTS MORE OF A HZ POSSIBILITY TNGT AND HAVE                  
HINTED AT.                                                                      
RATZER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LOT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
.IL...NONE.                                                                     
.IN...NONE.                                                                     
.LK MI...NONE.                                                                  
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1130 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISSUED A QUICK MORNING UPDATE TO THE ZFP TO DROP MAX TEMPS JUST A               
BIT IN THE FAR NORTHWEST WHERE INCOMING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS/CLOUD                 
COVER MAY CAP TEMPS OFF IN THE UPPER 80S... PIA MAY JUST SQUEAK                 
ABOVE THE 90 MARK IN TIME THOUGH.                                               
EXITING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALSO HELPING TO KICK OFF A FEW                  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR EAST THIS MORNING                
WHERE... LIKE YESTERDAY... THERE'S A BIT DEEPER MOISTURE.  RUC H85              
ANALYSIS SHOWS THETA-E RIDGING IN TWO AREAS... OVER THE FAR EASTERN             
CWA INTO INDIANA WHERE EXITING S/W TROF HAS AIDED IN TSTM                       
DEVELOPMENT... THE SECOND AREA OVER EASTERN IOWA AND FAR WESTERN                
ILLINOIS WITH PERHAPS SOME SFC MOISTURE POOLING OCCURRING IN THE                
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.                                                             
WHILE THE CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR LOOKS PROMISING WITH MCS OVER                  
EASTERN IA APPEARING TO BE STRENGTHENING A BIT WITH TIME... 850                 
DEWPOINT ANALYSIS SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT "DRY POCKET" OVER ILLINOIS...             
WITH THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER IOWA.                                     
WILL KEEP THE 40 POPS IN FOR THE UPDATE... THOUGHT IS THAT THE MCS              
OVER IOWA MAY TEND TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRIER AIR TO THE EAST             
AND MAY INDEED TRY TO PROPAGATE OR REDEVELOP SOUTHWARD INTO THE MORE            
UNSTABLE AIR OVER MISSOURI.  THINK THE 40 POPS WILL BE                          
REPRESENTATIVE OF A MORE SCATTERED NATURE TO ANY PRECIP THAT MOVES              
IN OR DEVELOPS TODAY.  IN SPITE OF THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR... WE WILL             
STILL BE MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE SO CONVECTION IS                     
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS DEVELOPING TO THE SW...WITH ONLY             
THE OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN THE LAST FEW SCANS.  MAJORITY OF            
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE NE AND NW.  MCS IN THE NW SEEMS TO HAVE            
ADDED A MORE SERLY COMPONENT IN THE LAST HOUR. PLENTY OF MOISTURE               
STILL IN THE REGION WITH DPTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S IN CWA...WITH               
LOW 70S NOT FAR TO THE S. CIRRUS OVERHEAD FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING               
KEPT THE TEMPS FROM DROPPING BELOW THE MID 60S-LOWER 70S. PROFILER              
DATA SHOWING A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE OVER THE REGION...AND THE BACK               
END OF CLOUDS REMAINING LOCATED ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.             
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE WHEN AND WHERE THE CONVECTION WILL                 
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON...WHEN THE CURRENT SHOWERS IN THE SRN HALF OF              
CWA WILL END...AND OFF AND ON PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH DAY 7.                     
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...                                  
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS SRLY FLOW BRINGS UP PLENTY OF              
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...H85 TEMPS STILL READING +18C. NEW TWIST               
TODAY IS THAT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY IN THE FORECAST                  
SOUNDINGS. 4000+ J/KG CAPE ACROSS THE CWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH             
NO CAP IN PLACE.  MCS IN THE UPPER MIDWEST MOVING EWD AT A GOOD                 
CLIP. 4KM NESTED WRF SHOWING THE PROPAGATION OF A LINE OF THUNDER SW            
OF THE CURRENT TAIL IN NERN NEBRASKA...MOVING TO THE NWRN PORTION OF            
IL BY THE AFTERNOON.  IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES             
TO THE WNW WOULD BE THE TRIGGER FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM                     
DEVELOPMENT.  SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK PAINTED ACROSS NW HALF OF                     
CWA...SUSPECT THAT COULD GROW TO COVER ENTIRE CWA LATER IN THE                  
MORNING...DEPENDING ON THE OUTCOME OF THE 12Z FLIGHTS.  KEPT 40 POPS            
IN THROUGH TONIGHT. TOMORROW...EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS...BUT WITH             
SLIGHTLY LESSER CAPE.  WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW/IF TURNING OVER THE                 
ATMOSPHERE AFFECTS THE FORECAST.  STILL THINK THAT THE SYNOPTIC                 
SCALE FRONTS WILL REMAIN TO THE N AND W OF THE CWA...STALLED OUT IN             
SWRLY FLOW.                                                                     
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...                                           
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES STAY TO THE N AND W THROUGH THE FORECAST...WITH              
HOT TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS THE RULE.  KEEPING THE SWRLY              
FLOW GOING ALOFT...AND A H5 RIDGE DOMINATING THE SERN CONUS.                    
SHORTWAVES AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM MCS DEVELOPMENT IN THE PLAINS            
WILL BE ESSENTIAL FOR DEVIATING FROM A RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN.  KEEP            
THE 30 POPS THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN DRY OUT THE REST OF THE WEEKEND             
AND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...THOUGH DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT            
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A POSSIBILITY...AND WILL WATCH             
FOR TRIGGERS. MODELS STILL BRINGING UP TROPICAL SYSTEM INTO THE OHIO            
RIVER VALLEY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE IN THE WEEKEND. WILL ALSO             
WATCH THE EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE OVER              
OUR REGION.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IL...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
HARDIMAN/HJS                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                              
310 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
TIMING OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL MAIN              
CONCERNS.                                                                       
SHORT TERM...HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH DUE TO HIGH PRECIPITABLE                 
WATER VALUES AND THETA E RIDGE ESTABLISHED OVERNIGHT OUR AREA. LOW              
LVL INFLOW NOT ALL THAT HIGH...AND NAM SEEMS UNREASONABLY HIGH WITH             
QPF. HOWEVER BACKBUILDING CONVECTION INTO THE AREA WITH STRONGER                
STORMS SEEMS LIKELY...AND WITH EXPECTED RAINS NEAR OR EXCEEDING                 
INDEX VALUES...A FLOOD WATCH SEEMS PRUDENT THROUGH THE NIGHT. MAY               
HAVE ACTUALLY TWO EPISODES OF CONVECTION...FIRST WITH BACKBUILDING              
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING...THEN, DEPENDING ON OUTFLOWS              
FROM THIS CONVECTION...MORE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT WITH FRONTAL                 
BOUNDARY IN THE AREA. RUC SHOWS SRN END OF NORTHEAST EJECTING WAVE              
PASSING NEAR AREA LATE EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS COULD                   
ENHANCE THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATER, FURTHER NORTH IN CWA, AS              
LOW LVL FLOW RETURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST THERE. LOWS TONIGHT LITTLE                
CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS ISSUANCE...AND WINDS WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES              
ANYONE'S GUESS...BUT TRIED TO TREND TOWARD A SOUTHEAST FLOW ALL                 
AREAS BY LATE TONIGHT.                                                          
LONGER TERM...LARGE SCALE PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FEATURES                 
LARGE SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND RIDGE ALONG THE EAST             
COAST.  OF COURSE THIS MEANS SEASONALLY STRONG SWLY FLOW ACROSS                 
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MONDAY WITH STALLED OUT SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND              
PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY.  GIVEN THIS...EXPECT              
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE                    
PERIOD...AND ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT.  TIMING OF OF            
MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVES COMING OUT OF SOUTHWEST TROUGH IS                        
DIFFICULT...PARTICULARLY CONSIDERING RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY SHOWN BY            
GFS...HOWEVER...FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO HAVE A DECENT                  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND STRONGER SHEAR MOVING THROUGH AND ASSOCIATED               
HIGHER THREAT FOR SIG SEVERE.                                                   
NOT SURPRISINGLY...LONG RANGE MODELS TRY TO BREAK DOWN THIS LONGWAVE            
PATTERN IN DIFFERENT WAYS...BUT ALL WOULD INDICATE THAT BY THE                  
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A DIFFERENT PATTERN WILL SETUP AND CHANCES FOR            
PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WATCH ALONG AND SOUTH OF A             
LINE FROM ABILENE TO MANHATTAN TO HOLTON FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING                 
UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY.                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SK/GP                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
1018 AM MDT WED JUN 8 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...MINOR UPDATE THIS MORNING TO LOWER MAX TEMPS IN THE               
HILL CITY/NORTON AREAS. ETA INITIALIZED VERY WELL ON 850                        
TEMPS...WHICH WERE RUNNING IN THE 14 TO 15 CELSIUS RANGE. WITH                  
NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPING...WILL HAVE SOME                  
UPSLOPE COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND ETA SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOWER              
80S FOR HIGHS IN THE EAST. ELSEWHERE...SOUNDINGS LOOK A FEW DEGREES             
COOLER THAN BEFORE...BUT THE AIR IS SO DRY IT MAY HEAT UP                       
EASILY...SO DID NOT ADJUST ANYWHERE ELSE.                                       
WINDS WERE INITIALLY GUSTY THIS MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND             
THE GRIDS HANDLED THIS WELL.  STILL EXPECT A DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS            
AS THE DIRECTION SWINGS AROUND TO EASTERLY AND SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS             
INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. SHOULD HAVE SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS RETURN TO              
EASTERN COLORADO BY EVENING AND SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT.                          
ALSO ADJUSTED DEWPOINT FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONS             
OF DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 30S AND EVEN UPPER 20S ALONG THE            
COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER. THE RUC IS OVERDOING THE AMOUNT OF                      
DRYING...BUT AT LEAST HAS THE RIGHT TREND. ETA/GFS DEWPOINTS WERE               
ENTIRELY TOO HIGH BY ABOUT 15 DEGREES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.                       
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.KS...NONE.                                                                     
.NE...NONE.                                                                     
.CO...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BURKE                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
420 AM EDT WED JUN 8 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS UPDATE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND                 
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.                                                          
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/ETA SHOWING A COUPLET OF LOWS EMBEDDED              
IN A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS            
NORTHWEST FROM SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA THROUGH NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.               
A WEAK SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS             
RACING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND WESTERN ONTARIO. SURFACE                   
ANALYSIS INDICATES A LOW OVER NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WITH A COLD                
FRONT DRAPED SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN IOWA. A               
WARM FRONT ALSO STRETCHES OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW AND RUNS THROUGH                 
WISCONSIN AND CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND                      
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FIRING OVER SOUTH AND EAST OF FRONTS IN A WATCH               
BOX OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WESTERN ILLINOIS.                               
A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL SWING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA                 
TONIGHT AS THEY TRY TO NAVIGATE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES RIDGE.            
THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN ONTARIO DRAGGING A COLD FRONT            
INTO THE CENTRAL U.P. BY SUNRISE. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL FOCUS THE             
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE UPPER                
LEVEL JET WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAIN INTO WESTERN ONTARIO.             
AS IT DOES...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST              
AREA. TOGETHER THIS SHOULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS               
THIS EVENING. THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME SCATTERED LATE.                           
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THE UPPER            
LEVEL JET MAX WILL SHIFT OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO PLACING NORTHERN                  
WISCONSIN AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION.            
DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL TEMPORARILY GIVE US A            
BREAK FROM THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL             
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT INTO            
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA DRAWING GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT              
LAKES REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL JET MAX WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL              
ONTARIO BECOMING MORE EAST WEST ORIENTED. THESE WILL INCREASE THE               
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.                                            
AGAIN A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL CLIMB THROUGH THE RIDGE OVER             
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY            
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT INTO NORTHERN UPPER                   
MICHIGAN. MOISTURE OVER RUNNING THIS FRONT WILL GENERATE A FEW                  
SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. K INDEX WILL BE IN THE 30S...SO EXPECT POSSIBLY              
SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH THESE SHOWERS. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL                  
REMAIN STRETCHED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. GFS/ETA                  
SHOWING TWO JET MAXES OVER THE REGION. ONE JUST SOUTH OF THE                    
FORECAST AREA AND THE OTHER OVER ONTARIO. FORECAST AREA IS BETWEEN              
THESE SUGGESTING SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THIS WILL KEEP ENOUGH             
INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA TO KEEP THUNDERSTORMS GOING.                          
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT             
AS IT WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH A RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE             
ROCKIES LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG. THE UPPER JET MAX WILL            
PUSH INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AND WEAKEN AS ANOTHER JET MAX DEVELOPS                 
OVER EASTERNS DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THE SURFACE LOW WILL              
CLIMB OUT OF EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO SOUTHEAST MANITOBA DRAGGING THE               
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WESTERN IOWA. A WARM               
FRONT LEADING THIS LOW WILL TRACK SLOWLY OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND            
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRAWN                
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD GENERATE SOME                
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE WESTERN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP             
A CLOSED LOW OVER WYOMING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE EJECTED OUT                 
AHEAD OF THE LOW INTO WISCONSIN...WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT SHIFTS                
ACROSS THE AREA. GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE                 
AREA. AFTERNOON HEATING WILL HELP GENERATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND              
THUNDERSTORMS. THE WYOMING CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL DAKOTAS            
AS THE WISCONSIN SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE U.P. SUNDAY NIGHT.                
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO               
THE CENTRAL U.P. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL                     
CONTINUE. THE MID LEVEL CLOSE LOW WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH DAKOTA ON                
MONDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA DRAGGING A              
COLD FRONT THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE               
DRAWN INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TOGETHER THESE SHOULD                   
PRODUCE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. THE MID LEVEL             
LOW WILL TREK INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. GFS IS MOVING THE SURFACE LOW             
INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE ECMWF KEEPS IT OVER                
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE NCEP ENSEMBLE IS FAVORING THE SLOWER                   
SOLUTION. WEAK SHORTWAVES BEING EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF THIS CLOSED LOW            
WILL BE SHIFTING ACROSS THE REGION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN              
HIGH OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THUS THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND                     
THUNDERSTORM WILL PERSIST WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT.               
THE CLOSED LOW WILL WORK INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON TUESDAY AS THE              
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO WESTERN U.P. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL             
CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND                      
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL GOING.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DLG                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                            
430 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WENT AHEAD ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MY CENTRAL MISSOURI                   
COUNTIES.  OUTFLOW ON BACK SIDE OF MCS HAS SLOWED OVER CENTRAL                  
MISSOURI.  GIVEN THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF ATMOSPHERE MOISTURE...STORMS               
SHOULD BE MORE THAN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THIS               
AREA.  RUC DOES SHOW A BROAD 800-900MB FLOW INTERSECTING THIS                   
BOUNDARY THIS EVENING...WITH STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND THETA-E            
ADVECTION OVER THE WATCH AREA AT 03Z...HENCE THE NEED FOR THE FFA.              
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM DEALS WITH EXTENT OF TSRA THE NEXT FEW DAYS.              
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST AS IT IS DIFFICULT TO TELL                 
WHERE OUTFLOW FROM ONGOING CONVECTION WILL FOCUS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT            
TONIGHT.  GFS IS SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK                    
PROBLEMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO PUT LESS FAITH IN IT.  HAVE                    
FOLLOWED THE 18Z NAM MORE CLOSELY AS IT SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER                  
HANDLE ON ONGOING TSRA THAN THE 12Z RUN.                                        
TONIGHT...EXPECT ACTIVE TSRA TO GO ON WELL INTO THE EVENING AS                  
OUTFLOW PUSHES INTO VERY UNSTABLE AIR OVER AREA.  HAVE ADDED MENTION            
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER CNTRL MO AS LOW LEVEL JUST SETS BACK             
UP TONIGHT...MOST LIKELY OVER THE OUTFLOW FROM CURRENT STORMS.  HAVE            
CONTINUED CHC OF TSRA INTO THE WEEKEND AS AREA WILL REMAIN IN                   
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS AREA.            
USED OF BLEND OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THINK THAT            
BETWEEN CLOUDS AND TSRA TOMORROW...TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE                  
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD NGM MOS.                                                     
EXTENDED IS JUST AS COMPLICATED WITH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOWING                
DISPARITY IN JUST HOW QUICK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.                  
SHOWED AS SLOWER MOVEMENT ACROSS THE AREA AND DID NOT GO TOO HIGH ON            
POPS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...FALSH FLOOD WATCH FOR AUDRAIN...BOONE...CALLAWAY...COLE...                 
     GASCONADE...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MONITEAU...OSAGE...                      
     AND RALLS COUNTIES UNTIL 4 AM THURSDAY MORNING.                            
IL...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BRITT                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
253 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SHORT TERM CONCERNS HINGE AROUND EVOLVING SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER            
THREAT OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATER                
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. RICH GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT              
INTO THE OZARKS AND EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS IN             
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING...WITH SURFACE TEMPS            
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...HAS CONTRIBUTED TO AN EXTREMELY                 
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH PROXIMITY RUC/NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING               
MLCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 5000 J/KG. WIDESPREAD CU FIELD OVER THE AREA            
SHOWING LITTLE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT...AWAITING FROM SEVERAL LIFTING             
MECHANISMS THAT LIE TO THE NORTH AND WEST.                                      
LATEST MESO-ANALYSIS SHOWS A SYNOPTIC SCALE COLD FRONT AND LEADING              
DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM A SURFACE LOW ALONE THE NE KS/SE               
NEBRASKA BORDER. A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS                
EAST OF THIS LOW ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF AN MCS OVER NRN MISSOURI.            
SLOW EASTWARD/SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARE              
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WITH RAPID INITIATION               
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO FROM THE TRIPLE POINT SOUTHEAST              
INTO CENTRAL MO. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS MARGINAL...LARGE             
CONTRIBUTION TO EXTREME INSTABILITY IN THE -10 TO -30C LAYER WILL               
SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. SIMILAR TO                   
YESTERDAY...PRECIPITATION LOADING ABOVE SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS MAY LEAD             
TO A FEW SIGNIFICANT LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS. TORNADO THREAT APPEARS               
MINIMAL...HOWEVER INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS THIS              
EVENING MAY PROVIDE AN ENHANCED THREAT ALONG BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS.             
MCS SHOULD PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS THIS                   
EVENING. SLOW STORM MOVEMENT COUPLED WITH VERY HIGH THETA-E AIRMASS             
HAS NECESSITATED THE ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR WEST                   
CENTRAL MO AND SE KS WHERE SEVERAL RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTS HAVE            
AFFECTED THE AREA.                                                              
BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE THREAT FOR                     
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY WHERE               
MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED OVER THE WESTERN CWA CLOSER TO                
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. IF THIS FRONT RETREATS NORTHWARD PER SEVERAL            
OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...THEN MUGGY BUT DRIER CONDITIONS WILL                   
PREVAIL.                                                                        
POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF COULD THROW A WRENCH             
INTO MATTERS TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH SUBSIDENCE ON THE NW              
FLANK OF ANY DEVELOPMENT WOULD ENHANCE THE GOING DRY FORECAST INTO              
NEXT WEEK.                                                                      
BOOKBINDER                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ALONG AN             
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI THIS                
AFTERNOON.  LOOK FOR BROKEN CEILINGS OF 2500 TO 4000 FEET THIS                  
AFTERNOON AS CUMULUS FIELD BEGINS TO EXPAND.  VISIBILITIES MAY DROP             
WITHIN STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO A MILE OR LESS WITHIN THE TORRENTIAL             
RAIN HOWEVER OVERALL VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3 MILES.                  
LINDENBERG                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH BARTON...CEDAR AND ST. CLAIR.                           
.KS...BOURBON AND CRAWFORD.                                                     
$$                                                                              
WFO SGF                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
250 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SYNOPSIS...12Z SUBJECTIVE UPPR AIR ANLYS INDCD MEAN TROF OVR THE NRN            
ROCKIES WITH A FLAT RIDGE OVR THE SW US. IMPRESSIVE UPPR LVL H3 JET             
OF 100 KT VISIBLE FM UT INTO WY. AT H5 CNTRL PLAINS REMAINED UNDER              
SW FLOW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL SHRTWV TROFS EMBEDDED WITH IN THE FAST               
FLOW. LAST NIGHTS SIG SHRTWV WAS LOCATED OVR THE ERN DAKOTAS/MN WITH            
A SHRTWV RIDGE ACRS THE CNTRL PLAINS. NEXT UPSTRM SHRTWV WAS OVR                
WY/CO WITH ANOTHER WV DIVING SEWD INTO THE WRN US. A MARITIME                   
AIRMASS CONTD OVR THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS WITH A +20 DP AT KOKC AT H85.            
H85 CDFNT WAS LOCATED FM ERN NEB SWWD INTO WRN KS. 19Z OBJECTIVE                
MSAS ANLYS INDCD CDFNT ALNG THE MO RIVER INTO NE KS WITH AN OUTFLOW             
BOUNDARY FM MO MCS INTO SE NEB NR KFNB.                                         
FORECAST...VERY COMPLICATED FORECAST THRU MON WITH SEVERAL CHCS OF              
CONVECTION/SVR WX. FOR TONIGHT CDFNT HAS BECOME NEARLY STNRY ALNG               
THE MO RIVER AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF AN EWD PUSH THRU THE EVENING.            
LATEST LAPS/RUC ANALYSIS INDCS FAR SE CWA HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE              
WITH LITTLE OR NO CIN REMAINING. MAY SEE AN ISO TSRA DEVELOP HERE               
THIS EVNG...BUT SHLD QUICKLY MV INTO KS/MO BY 03Z. VERY LITTLE CHC              
OF CONVECTION FARTHER N ALNG THE CDFNT WITH FAIRLY STABLE AIR BEING             
ADVECTED IN FM THE E. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE W WERE UPSLOPE                
FLOW WAS ALREADY GETTING GOING. EXPECT TSRA TO DVLP OVR THE HIGH                
TERRAIN LATE EVNG IN REGION OF RIGHT REAR QUAD OF 100 KT UT/WY JET              
STREAK AND ASSOCIATED WITH WK SHRTWV TROF. SIG MOISTURE/TEMPERATURE             
ADVECTION IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AS SHRTWV TROF APPROACHES               
WHICH SHLD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR MCS TO DVLP              
AND MV EWD/EXPAND ACRS NRN NEB. WL START CHC POPS AFTR 09Z FOR WRN              
CWA FOR THIS ACTIVITY AS IT RIDES THE NRN EDGE OF THE LLJ. NAM DROPS            
THIS CONVECTION SEWD INTO ERN NEB ON THURS...BUT THIS MAY BE                    
OVERDONE. ELEVATED MIXED LAYER SHLD BE INCREASING THRU THE NIGHT                
TONIGHT WITH GOOD SWRLY FLOW OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SHLD BRING              
+12 AT H7 INTO SRN NEB BY 12Z. THUS IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT TSRA WL              
CONT INTO THE MORNING HOURS OVR THE NRN CWA BEFORE DIMINISHING BY               
LATE MRNG. CONVECTION SHLD PRODUCE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THOUGH THAT              
WL SETTLE OVR SRN NEB BY AFTN. FORCING FOR ASCENT IS NOT STG ON                 
THURS AFTN...BUT WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO              
NR 70...CONVERGENCE ALNG THE BOUNDARY...AND WK LARGE SCALE ASCENT               
ALOFT...ISO/SCT TSRA WL DVLP ALNG THE BOUNDARY. LATEST SREF                     
INDICATES 40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR ACRS THE BOUNDARY WITH EXTREME               
INSTABILITY. THUS SUPERCELLS WL BE POSSIBLE PER LATEST SWODY2.                  
LOW-LVL SHEAR IS NOT STG OVR CWA...BUT GOOD TURNING IS INDCIATED IN             
POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS. SEEMS LIKE VERY LARGE HAIL/WIND WOULD BE              
THE MAIN THREAT...BUT AN ISO TOR CAN'T BE RULED OUT WITH THE AMOUNT             
OF INSTABILITY AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. MCS SHLD EVENTUALLY DVLP                  
TOMORROW EVNG AND ROLL ACRS CNTRL/NRN NEB INTO FRI MRNG AND HAVE                
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY. SFC BOUNDARY CONTS IN THE AREA ON FRI AND             
MODELS PROGG STG SHRTWV TROF TO EMERGE ONTO THE PLAINS BY LATE AFTN.            
STG LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WL LIKELY LEAD TO CONVECTION BY              
AFTN ALNG THE BOUNDARY WITH SVR WX AGAIN POSSIBLE. THIS IS LIKELY TO            
CONT THRU FRI NIGHT AS SRN PLAINS CONVECTION LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST             
INTO THE AREA. WL KEEP THE CHC OF TSRA INTO NEXT MON WITH THE SFC               
FRONT INTO THE AREA...WITH SUN INTO MON LOOKING LIKE THE NEXT BEST              
CHC OF SIG SVR WX. OTHERWISE TMPS LOOK NR NORMAL WITH A DRY TUE/WED.            
&&                                                                              
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BOUSTEAD                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   ne                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
150 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2005                                                       
.AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...                                                          
SCT CONVECTION WILL POP UP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON. DRY              
PUNCH NOTED ALONG IN/OH BORDER...BUT MUCH OF REGION IS UNDERNEATH               
SCT CU AROUND 4KFT. EXPECT THIS CU TO BECOME TEMPO BKN THIS                     
AFTERNOON WITH ISOLD TSRA AND HEAVY RAIN THAT SHOULDN'T AFFECT TAF              
SITES BUT WILL BE IN VISCINITY. TEMPO IS TOO PESSIMISTIC FOR THE                
EXPECTED TIME COVERAGE AS SHOWERS ARE BASICALLY SHORT LIVED EARLY               
THIS AFTERNOON. PROBS CAN'T BE USED IN 1ST 9 HOURS...SO I'M LEFT                
WITH WAITING TO SEE IF TSRA WILL AFFECT TAF SITES AND AMENDING WHEN             
IT DEVELOPS.                                                                    
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO GO BACK TO FEW/SCT OR             
EVEN CLEAR FOR A PERIOD TONIGHT. MISSED FOG ON YESTERDAYS FCST FOR              
THIS MORNING...AM INCLUDING IT TONIGHT AS SAME AMS WILL BE IN PLACE.            
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH AND WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT.                        
MORE OF THE SAME EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.                                
FRANKS                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TODAY)...                                                          
SCT THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS                 
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST TO AROUND 90                     
NORTHWEST. SERN FCST AREA IS LOWER ON TEMPS WITH THE EXPECTED SHOWER            
ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND              
90 HERE AS WELL...BUT BY THAT TIME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AND CLOUD               
COVER IF NOT PRECIP WILL HOLD DOWN MAXES.                                       
MODIFIED SOUNDING IS LOADED AND PWATS INCREASE TO AN IMPRESSIVE                 
1.67. LACK OF FLOW WILL HAVE ANY OF THESE STORMS PRODUCE LOCALIZED              
FLOODING AND SPS WAS ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL IN THE STORMS            
THAT DO DEVELOP. ALSO REQUESTED GOES RAPID SCAN TO MONITOR                      
DEVELOPMENT OF CU THIS AFTERNOON.                                               
IT WON'T BE A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS AS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SCT.               
HOWEVER...INCREASED PWATS AND THE MODIFIED CAPE OF 33-3500 IS                   
IMPRESSIVE. WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL IS THERE AND WE'LL HAVE TO KEEP            
AN EYE ON OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS. H5 VORT WILL BE FOUND SOMEWHERE OVER            
CWA AND MODELS HAVE IT MORE PREVALENT IN THE EAST. THE VORT ISN'T               
STRONG...AND SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS...BUT IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO SPARK                 
ACTIVITY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.                                            
DO NOT EXPECT TO CHANGE THE PUBLIC FORECAST AT ALL FOR THIS                     
AFTERNOON. CURRENT FCST HAS SCT STORMS AND HIGHS AROUND WHERE THEY              
ARE EXPECTED...AND A NOD TOWARDS THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.                  
FRANKS                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (12Z-12Z)...                                                          
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER TAF SITES WITH                 
GENERALLY MVFR VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.  THE EXCEPTION WAS KLUK WHERE             
VLIFR CONDITIONS.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS                 
OVER CENTRAL IN/OH.                                                             
HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPO FOR TSRA TO LATTER IN THE DAY.  LATEST RUC                  
SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON CURRENT CONDITIONS THAN THE NAM.               
IT SHOWS MID LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER IL DRIFTING INTO CENTRAL                 
INDIANA AT 18Z AND THEN LIKELY OVER THE REGION OF THE TAFS BY 00Z.              
THUS HAVE PUSHED BACK TSRA TO LATTER IN THE DAY DURING PEAK                     
DAYTIME HEATING.  AFT 00Z...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO LAST                
NIGHT EXCEPT FOR MAYBE A FEW MORE CLOUDS.                                       
TIPTON                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 328 AM EDT WED JUN 8 2005)                                              
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...                                      
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MRNG AS OH VLY REMAINS UNDER UPR RIDGE.              
TSTMS REMAIN WELL OFF TO NORTH AND WEST INVOF FRNTL BNDRY DRAPED                
ACRS CNTRL GRT LKS.  TEMPS WERE AROUND 70 DEG ATTM.                             
MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE SHORT TERM AS UPR RIDGE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED              
ACRS EASTERN CONUS.  DIURNAL HEATING AND SBCAPES APPCHG 2000 J/KG               
WILL AGAIN BE MAIN CATALYSTS IN TSTM DVLPMNT TODAY.  CHANCES FOR                
TSTMS DO LOOK BETTER THAN TUES AS MID LVL S/WV MOVES ACRS REGION                
THIS AFTN.  THIS FEATURE SHWNG UP NICELY ON WATER VAPOR SAT THIS                
MRNG ACRS MID MISSISSIPPI VLY.  HAVE BUMPED UP POPS A BIT DUE TO                
EXPECTED BETTER COVERAGE...RANGING FROM 30 POPS IN WEST CNTRL OH                
TO 40 POPS ACRS SRN 1/2 FCST AREA.  TSTMS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT                
AT PEAK HEATING DURING AFTN HOURS.  HOWEVER...NOT OUT OF QUESTION               
THAT MAY SEE CONVECTION BEGIN TO DVLP AS ERLY AS MID MRNG (14-15Z)              
ACRS TRI STATE AREA AS S/WV APPCHS FROM WEST.  WHILE AN ISOLD SVR               
STORM IS POSSIBLE...PRIMARY CONCERN FROM TSTMS WILL BE POTENTIAL                
FOR HVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.  MODEL SOUNDINGS INDCG RISE                
IN PWATS TO 1.8-1.9 IN THIS AFTN AND WITH STORM MOTION PROGGED AT               
LESS THAN 10KTS...GOING TO SEE SOME VERY SLOW MOVING TSTMS.  THUS               
HAVE INDICATED HVY RAIN IN ZONES.  TSTMS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVNG               
AS S/WV MOVES EAST OF FCST AREA AND DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST.                    
PINPOINTING EXACT DETAILS REGARDING STRENGTH/TIMING OF MID LVL                  
VORTS THRU REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO VARY BTWN 00Z GFS                
AND NAM SOLNS.  WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR THURS AND                         
FRI...FOCUSING MAX POPS DURING AFTN/EVNG HOURS IN ACCORD WITH PEAK              
HEATING.  HAVE ALSO ADDED SLGT CHC POPS TO OVERNIGHTS THURS AND                 
FRI NIGHTS.  ALTHOUGH INSTABILITIES WILL BE LOWER...ANY MID LVL                 
FORCING THAT CAN WORK ACRS THE FCST AREA MAY BE ABLE TO KICK OFF                
AN ISOLD TSTM OR TWO.  FRNTL BNDRY WILL REMAIN ACRS GRT LKS INTO                
WEEKEND AS UPR RIDGE REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE ACRS EASTERN CONUS.                
THIS WILL KEEP WARM HUMID AIRMASS ACRS OH VLY.                                  
TEMPS...MORE CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED AREAL COVERAGE TO               
CONVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEG COOLER THAN TUES MAXS.                     
WARMEST TEMPS WILL RESIDE ACRS NRN FCST AREA WITH U80S EXPECTED.                
MID 80S EXPECTED FOR THURS/FRI.  GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO                 
PUMP INTO OH VLY...AND DEWPTS PROGGED TO AROUND 70 BY THURS/FRI.                
MAV GUID HAS BEEN VERY GOOD AS OF LATE...AND SAW NO REASON TO                   
STRAY.                                                                          
RYAN                                                                            
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                         
ADJUSTED POPS SAT TO CARRY A CHANCE ALL DAY.  OTHERWISE...MADE NO               
CHANGES TO EXTENDED.  PREV LONG TERM DISCUSSION FROM TUES AFTN                  
FOLLOWS BELOW.                                                                  
RYAN                                                                            
(ISSUED 251 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2005)                                              
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                           
WARM AND HUMID PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM. BERMUDA             
HIGH WILL SHIELD THE REGION FROM MAJOR SYSTEMS, BUT A MOIST UNSTABLE            
AIRMASS WILL PERSIST. LACK OF STRONG UPPER SUPPORT AND SURFACE                  
CONVERGENCE POINTS TO A DIURNAL PATTERN OF DAYTIME CONVECTION AND               
NIGHTTIME DISSIPATION. THEREFORE, WENT WITH CHANCE POPS EACH DAY AND            
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AT NIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN MAY INCREASE ON               
THE WEEKEND WITH THE POSSIBLE INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE.                      
PERSISTENT PATTERN WILL ALLOW CONTINUATION OF NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL              
TEMPS, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO               
UPPER 60S.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
416 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2005                                                       
RADAR COMPOSITES HAVE BEGUN TO LIGHT UP OVER THE PAST HOUR...AS                 
CONVECTIVE TEMPS (AROUND 90) HAVE BEEN REACHED. CELLS TODAY HAVE                
INITIATED ALONG SEA/BAY BREEZE BOUNDARIES...AND EXTEND AS FAR W AS              
THE RIC METRO AREA. MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL CELLS ARE ONCE AGAIN                 
FIRING FARTHER W TOWARD THE FOOTHILLS (WITH THE WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW).             
MODIFIED LAPS/RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPES NEARING 3500 J/KG...WITH                 
VERY HIGH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ONCE AGAIN (OVER 45KFT) FAVORING                   
QUITE A BIT OF LIGHTNING UNDERNEATH THE STRONGEST CELLS. WEAK                   
WINDS ALOFT WILL ONCE AGAIN MAKE FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS (AROUND 5               
KTS)...WITH HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED FLOODING THE MAIN THREAT.                      
FREEZING LEVELS REMAIN HIGH (~14KFT)...SO HAIL THREAT WILL BE                   
LIMITED TO CELLS WITH HIGH REFLECTIVITY CORES WELL ABOVE THE                    
FREEZING LEVEL (AOA 35 KFT).                                                    
COLLIDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE STORY THIS EVENING...                  
WHICH WILL HELP TO FIRE NEW CONVECTION. DID NOT GET TOO FANCY WITH              
POPS GIVEN THE MESOSCALE NATURE...THOUGH GIVEN THE CURRENT RADAR                
TRENDS DID OPT FOR THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ALONG AND ON EITHER                
SIDE OF THE CURRENT BROKEN LINE OF CELLS.                                       
BOTH THE GFS/ETA SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL STRATUS LATE                  
TONIGHT. THIS AS THE LOW LEVEL AGEO FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY                 
(VS. EASTERLY) AND DRAWS HIGHER THETA-E AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS               
WOULD BE MORE OF AN ISSUE ON THU...AS THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL                 
MOISTURE/HIGHER DWPTS WOULD MAKE FOR CONVECTIVE TEMPS CLOSER TO                 
80F VS. 90F. SO...WOULD ANTICIPATED A CLOUDIER DAY TOMORROW...NOT               
AT HOT...WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MORE SCT-NUMEROUS VS. ISOLATED.               
K INDICES IN THE MID 30S WOULD ALSO SUPPORT A HIGHER THREAT FOR                 
HEAVY RAIN.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN VICINITY OF ANY                        
SHRA/TSTMS...AND AREAS OF IFR/MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THURSDAY                 
MORNING IN FOG.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
PERSISTENT SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 15 KTS AND SEAS                  
3 FT OR LESS INTO SUNDAY. LOW RIP CURRENT RISK THURSDAY.                        
&&                                                                              
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...13                                                                 
LONG TERM...13                                                                  
AVIATION...22                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   va