AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ                                             
1045 AM MST FRI AUG 15 2008                                                     
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA                  
FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                             
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND A MOIST              
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE           
OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. ENOUGH                
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING               
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA                
THIS WEEKEND. DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST AND NORTH IS EXPECTED TO                  
CONFINE THE POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND                    
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA            
DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. LITTLE DAY TO DAY               
TEMPERATURE CHANGE IS EXPECTED WITH CLOSE TO AVERAGE TEMPERATURES               
FOR MID TO LATE AUGUST.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SATELLITE SHOWS BAND OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS DRAPED OVER                     
NORTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA. THIS IS MOISTURE REMAINING FROM                
LAST EVENINGS ACTIVITY AND INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE NAM AND RUC                
VORTICITY FIELD. BAND IS SLOWLY SLIPPING NORTH AND ERODING FROM THE             
SOUTH. QUESTION IS HOW MUCH EFFECT THIS WILL HAVE ON RISE OF                    
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OBSERVATIONS THROUGHOUT THE                 
SHROUDED REGION WERE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THE SAME TIME                  
YESTERDAY. IN OUR WESTERN ZONES READINGS HOWEVER WERE SEVERAL                   
DEGREES WARMER THAN 24-HOURS AGO. THEREFORE...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS             
TO OUR MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO BETTER HANDLE THE                 
GRADIENT THAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOPMENT IN AFTERNOON HIGHS...ALONG                
WITH SOME SLIGHT CHANGES IN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.                               
FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY LOOKS TO BE IN OUR WESTERN ZONES              
AS DISCUSSED IN THIS MORNINGS DISCUSSION...PRIMARILY IN                         
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED REGIONS OF NORTHEAST YUMA AND EASTERN LA               
PAZ COUNTIES. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STILL EXISTS IN               
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS EVIDENCED BY THE 1.64                
INCHES OF PWAT AND GREATER THAN 2000 J/KG CAPE ON THE MORNING KPSR              
SOUNDING. THIS AMS HOWEVER WAS WORKED OVER PRETTY GOOD LAST NIGHT               
AND GENERALLY SPEAKING THE DAY AFTER SUCH ACTIVITY IS LESS ACTIVE.              
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...HOWEVER COULD                  
PROPAGATE INTO THE LOWER DESERTS. STEERING FLOW HOWEVER IS EAST TO              
SOUTHEAST...NOT THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR BRINGING STORMS INTO THE                 
GREATER PHOENIX AREA.                                                           
WESTERN ZONES HOWEVER HAVE LESS CLOUDINESS...AND SEVERAL SHORT RANGE            
MODELS...INCLUDING OUR LOCAL WRF BRING SOME ENERGY NORTH FROM THE               
GULF OF CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. THIS SEEMS TO BE                     
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OR INVERTED TROUGH.                          
HARD...HOWEVER...TO PICK THIS FEATURE UP ON SATELLITE. DID RAISE                
POPS SLIGHTLY FOR ZONES 26 AND 21...AS ALL MODELS SEEMED TO INDICATE            
THIS WAS THE REGION WITH THE GREATEST THREAT. WILL REEVALUATE AGAIN             
PRIOR TO ISSUING MY AFTERNOON PACKAGE.                                          
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
ISSUED AT 545 AM MST FRI AUG 15 2008                                            
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY               
AND LA PAZ COUNTY DISSIPATED BEFORE MIDNIGHT LAST NIGHT. AN AREA OF             
CLOUDINESS WAS LEFT OVER FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING THE               
GREATER PHOENIX AREA WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS LA PAZ COUNTY AND                    
RIVERSIDE COUNTY. TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY 1 TO 5 DEGREES COOLER             
BEFORE SUNRISE THIS MORNING COMPARED WITH THE SAME TIME YESTERDAY.              
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER FAR NORTHWEST MEXICO IN             
THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING.             
THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH INTO                  
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND MOIST             
UNSTABLE AIRMASS STILL OVER OUR AREA MEANS AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE             
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE               
BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE            
LOW IN LA PAZ COUNTY TO NORTHERN YUMA COUNTY...AND OVER THE HIGHER              
TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.                                                        
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND                
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN YUMA COUNTY...LA PAZ              
COUNTY AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND. AT THAT TIME...AN                
UNUSUALLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL MOVE            
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVER COLORADO. THE TRAILING SOUTHWEST END OF THIS              
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA MAINLY OVER THE              
HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.                                                 
A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE LOCATED JUST OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA               
CALIFORNIA COAST DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.                
THERE IS A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS             
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE GREATER PHOENIX             
AREA DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...               
DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST AND NORTH...MOVING OVER OUR AREA IN THE                 
CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH...IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MOSTLY                
CLEAR NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PARTS OF                
NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE FOR MID TO LATE AUGUST.                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
AFTER LAST EVENINGS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THE AIRMASS HAS                         
COOLED OFF CONSIDERABLY AND STABILIZED. SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE              
10 THSD FEET REMAINS. BY 1900 TO 2100Z SUFFICIENT HEATING AND AMPLE             
MOISTURE BELOW 15 THSD FT WILL GENERATE FEW CB TYPES AT ALL                     
AIRFIELDS. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY TSTM OR TWO SPCLY INVOF YUMA THIS            
MORNING...BUT NOT NEARLY AS BUSY AS THURSDAY MORNING WHEN OUTFLOW               
BOUNDARY HELPED TRIGGER THOSE STORMS.                                           
FOR THE WEEKEND...MODELS INSIST ON A STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT               
FOR MOST AIRFIELDS. HOWEVER...WITH ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND                
GOOD HEATING...LOOK FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TSTM IN THE              
AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS BOTH DAYS.                                                  
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.                               
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
NO LARGE CHANGES IN THE HUMIDITY TODAY OR SATURDAY...EXCEPT A BIT               
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO CALIF ZONE 230 BY TONIGHT. THUS...WITH                 
SUFFICIENT HEATING AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE...EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE              
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THROUGH               
SUNDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION NEXT              
WEEK FOR A RETURN TO MORE SUNSHINE IN ALL FIRE WEATHER ZONES FOR                
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AZ...NONE.                                                                      
CA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT                          
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX                                                             
DISCUSSION...MCLANE/ELLIS                                                       
AVIATION...SIPPLE                                                               
FIRE WEATHER...SIPPLE                                                           
</pre> az                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA                                           
1045 AM PDT FRI AUG 15 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...THE AIR MASS REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR                  
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS TODAY. A FLASH FLOOD               
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE              
AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY DRY AND STABLIZE OVER THE WEEKEND SO LESS                  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND ONLY ISOLATED                       
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. THE MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN AROUND 1500               
FEET DEEP AND THIS WILL PRODUCE NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS OVER THE               
COASTS AND WESTERN VALLEYS. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR                
NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETS UP ALONG THE COAST. THIS             
SHOULD ALSO DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER AND SPREAD CLOUDS FURTHER INLAND            
EACH NIGHT.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...           
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO                   
COUNTIES...                                                                     
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY                                              
BOOMERANG SHAPED HIGH AT 500 MB WITH RIDGE AXIS ARCING FROM MONTANA             
TO CALIFORNIA TO SONORA MEXICO TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD BUT              
SLOWLY WEAKEN. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH/REMNANT CIRCULATION                        
ASSOCIATED WITH MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT MOVED ACROSS                  
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO ROTATE UP AND AROUND THE            
WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE AND IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTH ALONG THE               
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. THE AIR MASS LEFT IN ITS WAKE OVER                    
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA IS MOIST AND UNSTABLE. USING THE SAME MODELS               
AND FIELDS AS YESTERDAY TO DETERMINE MOST LIKELY AREAS OF CONVECTION            
IN THE NEAR TERM...THE RUC13 AND NAM12 MODELS...925-850 MB                      
STREAMLINES...850-500 MB OMEGA...AND 300-200 MB DIVERGENCE...THESE              
SHOWED FOCUS OVER IMPERIAL AND EASTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTY UNTIL 1100              
PDT THEN SHIFTING WEST AND NW BY NOON TO 10000 FOOT RIDGE OF SAN                
BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS AND SAN JACINTO MOUNTAINS...THEN EXTENDING                 
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN NOON AND 1400 PDT TO THE SANTA ROSA MOUNTAINS AND             
LAGUNA MOUNTAINS...AND THEN DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON                    
SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS JOHNSON VALLEY...COACHELLA VALLEY...AND                
ANZA BORREGO DESERT. QPF AMOUNTS PER THE MODELS WERE INDICATING A               
QUARTER TO A HALF INCH. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PER SOUNDINGS AT              
MIRAMAR AND YUMA ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...AROUND 1.4 INCHES. NO               
STRONG STEERING WINDS TO MOVE STORM CELLS OUT QUICKLY SO 1.5 INCHES             
IS A GOOD FIRST GUESS FOR MAXIMUM QPF FOR ANY ONE LOCATION...UNLESS             
MORE THAN ONE CELL PARKS OVER THE SAME AREA. THIS LATTER SCENARIO IS            
LESS LIKELY AS THERE IS STILL SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL STABILITY                
FROM PRESSURE REBOUNDING IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH                   
MENTIONED ABOVE THAT WILL CAP THE CONVECTION TO AROUND 25000 FEET               
UNTIL MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER DO EXPECT PULSE TYPE                               
THUNDERSTORMS...SIMILAR TO LAST FRIDAY...FROM 1400-1800 PDT WITH                
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AND LITTLE MOVEMENT. THIS ALL ADDS UP TO                   
INCREASED FLASH FLOOD THREAT FOR DRY WASHES AND CREEKS COMING OUT OF            
THE MOUNTAINS AND FLOWING INTO THE DESERT AREAS. ADDED A COUPLE OF              
HOURS TO THE ABOVE TIMES TO ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING RUNOFF MAKING ITS             
WAY DOWNSTREAM. UPDATED GRIDS AND FORECAST PRODUCTS ALREADY TO                  
REFLECT THIS THINKING. CONVECTION SHOULD SHUT DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY               
THIS EVENING AND FOR SATURDAY BE MAINLY OVER THE SAN BERNARDINO AND             
SAN JACINTO MOUNTAINS AND THEN MOVE OFF ACROSS JOHNSON/COACHELLA                
VALLEYS. AREAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS                   
EXPECTED THEN ALTHOUGH CAN NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT THE ROGUE CELL.                 
HOWEVER TRANSPORT WINDS PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST SO THIS WOULD              
BE A LOW THREAT. FOR SUNDAY EVEN LESS COVERAGE BUT AIR MASS NOT                 
TOTALLY DRIED OUT AND AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS               
WEAKENING SO THE DIURNAL HEATING OVER THE HIGHEST PEAKS SHOULD BE               
STRONG AND LONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. HAVING NOW             
DEALT WITH THE CONVECTIVE THREAT FOCUS TURNS TOWARDS WHERE MOST OF              
THE POPULATION LIVES...HAVE KEPT THE MARINE LAYER AT OR BELOW 1500              
FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATUS CLOUDS LIKELY              
TO AFFECT THE COAST BETWEEN 2000-1000 PDT EACH NIGHT/DAY AND INLAND             
AREAS BETWEEN 2300-0700 PDT. NAM12 MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING RH              
AT 100 PERCENT BETWEEN 200 AND 1000 FEET ELEVATIONS SATURDAY                    
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING INDICATE THE POSSIBILTY OF DENSE FOG FOR THE               
COASTAL MESAS AND LOWER WESTERN VALLEYS.                                        
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...                                      
COOLING TREND AS A TROUGH MOVES OVER PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGION AND               
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FLATTENED AND PUSHED SOUTH OF CALIFORNIA.                
FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION THIS RESULTS IN...DRY WEST TO SOUTHWEST                
FLOW ALOFT...A MARINE LAYER DEEPENING TO 4000 FEET...AND INLAND                 
TEMPERATURES 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
151530Z...THE MARINE LAYER WAS ABOUT 1500 FEET DEEP THIS MORNING                
WITH CEILINGS AT THE COASTAL AIRPORTS AROUND 1000 FEET ASL. SAN AND             
CRQ WILL SCATTER OUT BY 17Z AND THE COASTAL BASIN WILL CONTAIN SOME             
HAZE WITH VIS AROUND 6SM UNTIL CLOSE TO NOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS            
ARE EXPECTED TODAY MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS IN THE                 
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COASTAL CLOUDS WILL SHROUD COASTAL                   
AIRPORTS AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE LESS DISRUPTED THAN ON PREVIOUS            
NIGHTS. EXPECT CEILINGS AT THE COASTAL AIRPORTS SOMETIME BETWEEN                
06-10Z AND 16-18Z SAT MORNING. MM                                               
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
WET THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING POSSIBLE OVER DESERT            
SLOPES OF SAN BERNARDINO AND SAN JACINTO MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND                 
POSSIBLE SUNDAY. STRONG DRYING TREND AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS             
ALOFT OVER THE WEEKEND COULD LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PATTERN              
OVER THE DESERT SLOPES AND HIGH DESERT AREAS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...             
WITH WINDS GUSTING NEAR 35 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 10                   
PERCENT. SIMILAR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY POSSIBLE EACH            
AFTERNOON FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.                                         
&&                                                                              
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT THIS                
     EVENING FOR APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS-COACHELLA VALLEY-SAN                 
     DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS.                                                      
PZ...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC...BALFOUR                                                                
AVIATION/MARINE...MM                                                            
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANDIEGO                                          
</pre> ca                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
300 PM MDT FRI AUG 15 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)                                                             
ANOMALOUS PATTERN IN PLACE WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WYOMING                   
DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTH INTO COLORADO ON SATURDAY.  THIS PUTS                     
SOUTHEAST CO UNDER THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM WITH FAIRLY STRONG              
WARM AIR OVERRIDING COOL SFC AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE SE PLAINS.                 
MEANWHILE...STRONG UPPER LVL DIFFLUENCE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE             
AREA TONIGHT WITH QG FORCING MORE REMINISCENT OF A WINTER TIME EVENT            
THAN A LATE SUMMER ONE.  SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY DRAPED THE           
PANHANDLES DOWN INTO NE NM.   EASTERLY LOW LVL FLOW WITHIN THE COOL             
AIR MASS NORTH OF THE FRONT IS KEEPING FAIRLY HIGH DEW POINTS PINNED            
UP ACROSS THE SE MTNS/PLAINS WITH READINGS IN THE 50S WITH LOWER 60S            
ACROSS THE EASTERN BORDER. SO MAIN CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM IS                    
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY                   
RAINFALL.  WHERE SUN HAS BROKEN THROUGH CLOUD DECK ON WESTERN                   
FRINGES OVER THE EASTERN MTS/ADJACENT VALLEYS...A FEW SEVERE                    
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED.  WITH EASTERLY FLOW BENEATH               
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...DEEP LAYER SHEARS ARE MORE THAN                   
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS...AND HAVE ALREADY SEEN SOME             
STRONG ROTATION ON RADAR WITH A THUNDERSTORM OVER CUSTER COUNTY                 
EARLIER.   QUESTION IS HOW STABLE LOW LVLS MAY BE ACROSS THE SE                 
PLAINS.  NAM AND GFS AND RUC13 INDICATE VERY LITTLE CIN BUT CAPES               
NOT ALL THAT STRONG EITHER...PROBABLY ONLY AROUND 500-800 J/KG EXCEPT           
SOME POCKETS OF 1000 J/KG ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.  LCLS ARE                
CERTAINLY LOW ENOUGH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO.  THINK MAIN              
THREAT FOR SEVERE WILL BE ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...WITH                    
THUNDERSTORMS WEAKENING SOME AS THEY ENCOUNTER LOWER CAPES AND                  
POSSIBLY SOME CIN ACROSS THE PLAINS.  HOWEVER EVEN HERE EXPECT                  
SHOWERS/EMBEDDED TSTORMS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE                  
EVENING AS OVERRUNNING INTENSIFIES AND UPPER FORCING FROM CLOSED LOW            
MOVES IN.  THIS HEIGHTENS POSSIBILITY FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE             
PLAINS WHERE MANY AREAS RECEIVED OVER AN INCH OF RAINFALL FROM                  
THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY.  THINK ANY FLASH FLOODING MAY STILL BE                 
LOCALIZED...BUT AS SYSTEM EVOLVES INTO A MORE STRATIFORM EVENT...AND            
SOILS BECOME MORE SATURATED...WE COULD END UP WITH SOME FLOODING                
INTO SATURDAY AND EVEN SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE                
ACROSS THE AREA AND ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS                
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA.  GIVEN THE POTENTIAL WENT WITH A FLASH             
FLOOD WATCH...WHICH MAY NEED TO EVOLVE INTO A FLOOD WATCH AS EVENT              
GRADUALLY UNFOLDS AND FLOODING MAY RESULT FROM MORE WIDESPREAD                  
STEADY RAINFALL RATHER THAN FROM INTENSE CONVECTIVE CELLS AS TODAY.             
SATURDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH NOT A LOT OF CAPE...BUT VERY             
LITTLE CIN EITHER...AND DEEP LAYER SHEARS AROUND 40 KT.  BEST                   
PROBABILITY FOR ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS            
AND VALLEYS...WHERE LOW LVL MOISTURE APPEARS TO DEEPEN AND LESS                 
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED.                                                           
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)                                                 
THE LARGE UPR LOW WL BE CENTERED OVR CENTRAL CO BY SAT MORNING AND              
IS THEN FORECAST TO TRACK SEWRD...AND BE CENTERED OVR SERN CO BY                
SUN EVE...AND THEN CONTINUE ITS SEWRD TRACK INTO NORTH CENTRAL TX               
BY LATE IN THE DAY MON. WITH VERY MOIST CONDITIONS AND GOOD UPR                 
LIFT CONTINUING SAT NIGHT AND SUN OVR THE SERN PORTION OF THE                   
STATE...WL GO WITH LIKELY POPS. IT SEEMS THAT WITH ALL THE                      
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND LAPSE RATES OF 5-6 C/KM...THAT WE WOULD                
SEE WIDESPREAD RAIN...BUT ONLY ISOLD TSTMS...AND THE RAIN IN MOST               
AREAS WOULD BE LIGHT TO MODERATE...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. WILL                
CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO SUN EVENING. THEN AS THE LOW                
MOVES MOVE SE OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT WE LOSE THE GOOD UPR LIFT AND               
THE BETTER MSTR SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA...SO THE CHANCE FOR PCPN              
SHOULD DECREASE. SOME WRAP AROUND PCPN WL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO                  
MON OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS. THE UPR LOW THEN STALLS OVR NORTH                  
CENTRAL TX TUE AND THEN STARTS TO EJECT NEWRD INTO CENTRAL KS WED.              
SOME PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE OVR THE                 
FAR SERN PLAINS ON TUE...WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA WL BE DRIER                 
AND WARMER WITH MAYBE JUST SOME ISOLD TSTMS. A WEAK SHRTWV MOVES                
OVR THE AREA WED AND WED NIGHT WHICH COULD HELP TO KICK OFF SOME                
STORMS OVR THE SERN PLAINS AND MTS...AND THEN THU AND FRI LOOK DRIER            
ACRS THE AREA WITH SW FLOW DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO A NEW UPR LOW              
AND TROF CENTERED OVR WRN MT.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND                
SATURDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE DISTRICT...WITH MVFR TO IFR             
CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  COULD EVEN SEE SOME LOCAL LIFR               
CIGS DURING THE MORNING HOURS.  ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS EXPECTED              
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TIMING OF THESE WAVES ACROSS THE TAF SITES              
EXTREMELY DIFFICULT.  FIRST WAVE WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS AREA THIS              
EVENING...AND ACROSS THE SE CORNER OF THE STATE LATER TONIGHT...THEN            
EVOLVE INTO A MORE WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM EVENT FOR SATURDAY WITH                
MVFR TO IFR CIGS REMAINING SOCKED IN ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS/PLAINS              
THROUGH THE DAY.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR COZ072>089-093>099.                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
31/28                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO                                              
250 AM MDT FRI AUG 15 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING STRONG CLOSED LOW NOW                 
MOVING INTO FAR NERN WYOMING AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE                     
SOUTHWEST INTO NW CO BY 12 SAT. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE                     
CONSISTENT IN THE OVERALL TRACK AND ACCEPTED AS RUC QG HEIGHT                   
TENDENCY HAS BEST FALLS INTO SW WYOMING ATTM. CURRENTLY...PRECIP IS             
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA AS MODERATE QG ASCENT                 
MOVING IN AHD OF THE LOW AS NOTED BY RUC LAYERED VERTICAL VELOCITY              
FIELDS. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS ALSO SHIFTING MORE NORTHERLY AS NEXT SURGE            
MOVES IN FROM WYOMING. HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO CATEGORICAL THROUGH                 
TODAY WITH THE BEST ASCENT AND UPSLOPE FLOW THRU THE DAY. LOW LVL               
FLOW SHIFTS MORE SERLY LATER TNT SO RAIN MAY NOT AS WIDESPREAD OVER             
THE DENVER AREA. STILL DESERVES THE LIKELY POPS AND WILL LET DAY                
SHIFT DECIDE WETHERE TO BUMP POPS EVEN HIGHER FOR TNT AS QG ASCENT              
IS STILL FAIRLY HEALTHY. EXPECT EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE                 
COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVING IN WITH THE LOW BUT DON`T EXPECT SEVERE                 
STORMS WITH LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SFC BASED CAPE WITH VERY COOL               
LOW LVLS. PERSISTENT LONG TERM RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS              
MAY LEAD TO SOME MINOR WATER PROBLEMS...BUT NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH              
TO ISSUE ANY WATCHES AT THIS TIME. MUCH COOLER TODAY AS 700MB TEMPS             
DROP TO AROUND +4C. WITH SATURATED AIRMASS HIGHS WILL REMAIN THE MID            
TO UPPER 50S OVER THE FRONT RANGE. THESE TEMPS WILL VERY WELL LIKELY            
BUST THE OLD RECORD LOW MAX OF 68 DEGREES WITH NO PROBLEM. AS FOR               
THE SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS...SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN QUITE                       
HIGH...GENERALLY ABOVE 11000 FEET AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SOME             
ACCUMLATIONS OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.                                       
.LONG TERM...MODELS CONTINUE TO DROP A CLOSED UPPER LOW SLOWLY                  
ACROSS COLORADO...AND ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH 60 HOURS.  THE              
NAM HAS BEEN A BIT SLOWED THE MOVEMENT FOR EACH OF THE LAST FEW                 
RUNS.  MODELS TYPICALLY DO NOT DO WELL WITH MOVEMENT OF CLOSED                  
LOWS...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE US IMPACTED BY THIS LOW                 
THROUGH MONDAY.  FOR NOW HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES             
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY DUE TO PROXIMITY OF LOW/ AND CLOUDY UPSLOPE                
CONDITIONS.  HIGH POPS IN FORECAST LOOK REASONABLE THROUGH SATURDAY             
NIGHT...AND THIS COULD BE JUST WHAT IS NEEDED TO RELIEVE OUR DRY                
CONDITIONS.  ALSO RAISED POPS OVER PALMER DIVIDE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY              
NIGHT AS DOWNWARD FORCING BEHIND LOW SHOULD NOT BE EXPECTED UNTIL AT            
LEAST MONDAY IF NOT LATER.  FORECAST PAST MONDAY UNCHANGED...TIME               
WILL TELL IF THE UPPER LOW WILL STILL BE IN THE AREA...FOR NOW WE               
HAVE A MOSTLY DRY AND WARMING TREND IN THE FORECAST BEGINNING                   
MONDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VARYING IFR/MFVR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT AREA AIRPORTS               
DURING NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MOIST...NORTH-NORTHEAST LOW LVL FLOW.                 
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TS WILL DROP CIGS TO IFR CONDITIONS AT             
TIMES.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SWE/RTG                                                                         
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
208 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
AN UPPER AIR LOW...THE SAME ONE THAT PRODUCED RAIN ON                           
MONDAY...WILL APPROACH OUR REGION AGAIN FROM THE EASTERN GREAT                  
LAKES EARLY FRIDAY...AND WORK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.                 
THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BUILD IN DURING THE WEEKEND.                  
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...                                       
JUST WHEN IT LOOKED LIKE THINGS WERE CALMING DOWN...A ROGUE                     
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED OVER ULSTER WITHIN THE LAST 30 MINUTES.                  
MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CUTTING FROM NORTHEAST                
PA THROUGH THE LOWER/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO THE BERKSHIRES.                 
LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS BEST CAPES IN CWA RIGHT IN THIS                      
AREA...UP TO 1000 J/KG. ALSO RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS BEST SHOWLATERS                 
CENTERED RIGHT OVER ULSTER COUNTY AS WELL ALONG WITH SUPPORTIVE                 
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. EVENING ALY SOUNDING SHOWED 700 PLUS                    
JOULES/KG ALBEIT WITH FAIRLY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF                      
5.75C/KM.                                                                       
TRENDS ON THE RUC THROUGH THE NIGHT ARE FOR INCREASING STABILITY                
PER INCREASING SHOWLATERS...AND DECREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.              
WITH THESE FACTORS IN MIND...WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED CONVECTIVE                
ACTIVITY /CALLING IT ISOLD SHRA-TSRA/ IN THIS ZONE THROUGH ABOUT                
MIDNIGHT OR SO. THEN JUST LIMIT TO SLIGHT CHANCES FOR REMAINDER OF              
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT                 
ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA...SO HAVE INCREASED MINS THERE.                             
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...                     
THIS INCOMING UPPER LOW FEATURE IS THE SAME SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT OUR             
HEAVY RAINS ON MONDAY. AND YES..MORE RAIN IS LIKELY COME FRIDAY                 
AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER AIR LOW APPROACHES...BOTH POSITIVE VORTICITY            
AND WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE...PRODUCING LARGE SCALE ASCENT.                
AS USUAL...THE BIG QUESTION REGARDING CONVECTION AND HOW SEVERE IT              
WILL GET...WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SUNSHINE (IF ANY) WE WILL RECEIVE            
ON FRIDAY. WITH THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT...AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE                 
BEING LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY...WE BELIEVE CLOUDS WILL PREDOMINATE                
WHICH WOULD TEND TO KEEP MLCAPES AOB 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...CANNOT                
RULE SOME EARLY SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY NORTH. FOR NOW...EVEN WITH                
CLOUDS...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO WARRANT                      
CONTINUING TO PLACE THUNDER IN THE GRIDS...MAINLY FOR THE AFTERNOON.            
HOWEVER...NOT COMPELLED TO PLACE ENHANCE WORDING YET. THERE WILL BE             
SOME FAVORABLE MID LEVEL WIND SHEAR...LESS SO IN THE LOWER LEVELS.              
OF SLIGHTLY MORE CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING FOR LATE                 
FRIDAY. MORE ON THIS FOLLOWS IN OUR HYDRO DISCUSSION.                           
THE EUROPEAN MODEL CONTINUES TO MOVE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OUT                 
FASTEST TO THE EAST...FIRST THING BY SATURDAY. THE NAM IS THE                   
SLOWEST TO LIFT IT OUT...WITH THE GFS STILL IN BETWEEN AND THE MODEL            
OF CHOICE. THE EUROPEAN/GFS OPEN THE WAVE UP BY SATURDAY WHILE THE              
NAM DOES NOT. AGAIN...FOLLOW THE SOMEWHAT MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS                  
SOLUTION. THIS MEANS  CONTINUE LIKELY POPS INTO THE FIRST HALF OF               
FRIDAY NIGHT BUT LOWERING THEM A BIT FOR SATURDAY. WENT WITH ONLY               
SLIGHT CHANCE IN VALLEY LOCATIONS (FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A ROGUE               
SHOWER/THUNDER) BUT 30 POPS OVER THE SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE            
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                         
STARTED WITH MOS GUIDANCE AGAIN TODAY.  UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY GONE            
BY START OF PERIOD.  THIS MEANS A RELATIVELY DRY SATURDAY AND VERY              
DRY SUNDAY.  HOWEVER...GFS PLACES A SMALL SHORT-LIVED UPPER-LEVEL               
WAVE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON MONDAY.  WITH THE PASSAGE OF A             
COLD FRONT...TOO...POP CHCS INCREASE TO SLGT ON MON...WITH CHC FAR N            
ADIRONDACKS.  TUE AND WED ARE RAIN-FREE WITH A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE            
FROM CENTRAL CANADA IN PLACE...PROVIDING SEASONABLE AND DRY AIR.                
SLGT CHC SHOWERS RETURN S ON THU AS HIGH STARTS MOVING OFF THE MID-             
ATLANTIC COAST.  MEX GFS DOESN`T APPEAR TO RECOGNIZE MONDAY`S COLD              
FRONT...WITH MOS GUIDANCE KNOCKING BACK BOTH THE HIGH AND LOW TEMPS             
SEVERAL DEGREES FROM MEX DAYS 5-8.                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                       
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES TO START THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH HIGH AND MID               
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ENCROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE            
REST OF THE NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES. DESPITE CLEAR               
SKIES...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING AS OF 06Z AS A NORTHERLY                
BREEZE AT KGFL HAS IMPROVED VSBY...BUT FOG HAS SUDDENLY DEVELOPED AT            
KALB WITH CALM WINDS. AT KGFL WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME CALM AGAIN AT            
SOME POINT...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FOG FORMATION AND ASSOC            
IFR VSBY. DECIDED TO LEAVE PREDOMINANT VSBY IN MVFR RANGE AND                   
INCLUDE TEMPO FOR IFR VSBY BETWEEN 08Z-12Z. DUE TO CURRENT                      
OBSERVATION OF FOG AT KALB...WILL MENTION TEMPO FOR IFR CONTINUING              
THROUGH 10Z...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT TYPICAL FOR FOG TO FORM FIRST AT               
KALB BEFORE SURROUNDING AREAS...SO WILL MONITOR HOW SITUATION                   
EVOLVES. ELSEWHERE AT KPOU...FOG FORMATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED                   
ESPECIALLY DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME              
OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBY DUE TO BR. AFTER 12Z FRI MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL             
BE THICKENING AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS                           
WESTERN/CENTRAL NY. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE BETWEEN                
16Z-18Z...SO WILL MENTION VCSH. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDER DUE TO             
ELEVATED INSTABILITY...BUT SCATTERED NATURE PRECLUDES MENTION OF                
ANYTHING OTHER THAN CB APPENDED TO CLOUD GROUP. SHOWERS WILL TEND TO            
DIMINISH AROUND 01Z-02Z SAT WITH LOSS OF HEATING. WINDS WILL BE                 
VARIABLE AND LESS THAN 5 KTS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.                         
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
FRI NGT-SAT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR/IFR NIGHT/EARLY A.M. FOG POSSIBLE.               
ISOLD/SCT -SHRA/-TSRA.                                                          
SAT NGT-SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX EXCEPT MVFR/IFR FOG POSSIBLE KGFL.                
MON...MAINLY VFR...CHC PM -SHRA/-TSRA.                                          
TUE...VFR...NO SIG WX.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A ROGUE THUNDERSTORM THROUGH              
THE EARLY EVENING. THEN MAINLY QUIET WEATHER UNTIL MORE WIDESPREAD              
SHOWERS AND THUNDER ARRIVES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO CALL IT             
A "WET FLAG" ON FRIDAY IN OUR NFDRS FORECAST...AS THE AVERAGE QPF               
SHOULD EXCEED A QUARTER OF AN INCH ON FRIDAY...WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS              
TO INHIBIT ANY QUICK DRYING.                                                    
FINALLY...SOME DRIER WEATHER ON THE WAY FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND.             
WHILE WE STILL CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A SHOWER OR STORM                       
SATURDAY...LOOKS MAINLY DRY. NO SHOWERS MENTIONED FOR SUNDAY.                   
RH VALUES WILL APPROACH 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...DROP ONLY TO 60-70                
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON (AT BEST)...BACK UP NEAR 100 FRIDAY NIGHT.             
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...LOWER RH READINGS IN THE 50S ARE ANTICIPATED.           
THE WIND WILL RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGHOUT...SOUTHERLY UP TO 10 MPH              
TOMORROW...TURNING NORTHWEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS COME SATURDAY.                   
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
NO FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME. NO MODEL SUPPORTS ANY HEAVY QPF...AND            
EVEN THE ONCE WETTER GFS HAS BACKED OFF ITS HIGH QPF. MOST MODELS               
INDICATE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE TO OUR EAST COME FRIDAY INTO             
FRIDAY NIGHT. THAT`S NOT TO SAY WE ARE TOTALLY OUT OF THE WOODS FOR             
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY FLOODING. IN THESE SITUATIONS...ANY SLOW                  
MOVING OR BACKBUILDING THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED PONDING            
OF WATER. OUR AVERAGE RIVER BASIN FORECAST IS FOR HALF TO AN INCH OF            
RAINFALL...WHICH WOULD PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES IN               
MAIN WATERSHEDS. THE THREAT OF ANY FLOODING IS LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.            
WE WILL MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBILITIES IN OUR HWO.                        
&&                                                                              
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
MA...NONE.                                                                      
VT...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV                                                                
NEAR TERM...OKEEFE                                                              
SHORT TERM...HWJIV                                                              
LONG TERM...HELLER                                                              
AVIATION...JPV                                                                  
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV                                                            
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV                                                               
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
330 PM EDT FRI 15 2008                                                          
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
18Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LARGE AND                
UNSEASONABLE ELONGATED LONGWAVE TROUGH COVERING ALL BUT THE FAR                 
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONTINENT. TWO MAIN PIECES OF ENERGY EMBEDDED            
WITHIN THE FLOW OF THIS TROUGH INCLUDE A CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW                   
SLIDING SOUTH THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST...AND ANOTHER CLOSED              
LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. LOCAL AREA RESIDES ON              
THE FAR SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH THE OVERHEAD            
FLOW REMAINING MORE ZONAL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE                      
ADDITIONAL ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.                                
AT THE SURFACE...WEAK TROUGH CONTINUES TO HOLD POSITION WEST TO EAST            
ACROSS THE AREA FROM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITH THE SUBTROPICAL               
RIDGE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS. BEST FOCUS FOR             
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...              
OVER AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS. CONTINUE TO SEE                    
SCT-NMRS SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THIS REGION MOVING WEST TO EAST INTO            
THE NORTH-CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THE RULE OVER               
LAND WITH CU FIELD TAKING SHAPE. FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL EXPECT            
INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE MUCH LESS THAN            
PREVIOUS DAYS. TEMPERATURES AREA-WIDE CURRENTLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S TO            
LOWER 90S.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                         
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVERHEAD BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED OVERNIGHT INTO              
SATURDAY AS MID-LEVEL ENERGY DIVES SOUTH THROUGH THE UPPER/MIDDLE MS            
VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. SHOULD SEE ANY SCT                         
SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE LANDMASS DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET WITH             
THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF LAND                  
BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT FROM THE                     
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE COASTAL              
WATERS TO GET ITS ACT TOGETHER ONCE AGAIN (ESPECIALLY LATE). AS                 
ALWAYS THERE IS THE CHANCE THAT THIS CONVECTION COULD EFFECT                    
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GULF/FRANKLIN COUNTIES AND OVER INTO THE                   
SOUTHEASTERN BIG BEND AS THE OVERALL FLOW PUSHES THE CONVECTION FROM            
WEST TO EAST.                                                                   
FORECAST DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE                
WEEKEND BECOMES OF LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN USUAL AS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE            
CONTINUES TO HAVE DIFFICULT WITH THE ABNORMAL PATTERN AND IS                    
FLIP-FLOPPING BETWEEN SEVERAL DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. MID-LEVEL ENERGY             
MOVING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY/SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY WILL RESULT            
IN A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY             
OVER THE GULF COAST. MODELS ARE HANDLING THE STRENGTH AND POSITION              
OF THIS LOW DIFFERENTLY AND RESULTING IN A VARIETY OF LIFT/PRECIP               
PATTERNS. THE DEVELOPING FRONTAL WAVE WILL GENERATE WARM                        
FRONTOGENESIS TO OUR WEST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF TONIGHT/SAT MORN            
WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 300-305K SURFACES.              
THIS LIFT WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE DAY INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES.               
GFS IS USUALLY FAIRLY GOOD ABOUT THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THESE             
FRONTAL WAVES AND WILL FOLLOW ITS OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.                     
HOWEVER...AFTER COORD WITH HPC WILL DUMB DOWN THE MAV POPS AND THE              
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL A BIT AND BLEND POPS/QPF WITH THE SREF                     
ENSEMBLES. EVEN STILL...THIS BLEND IS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN POPS            
FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TOMORROW. LATEST GRIDS SHOWING 55-65% LIKELY             
POPS WEST AND 45 TO 55% CHANCE POPS FURTHER EAST. WITH THE HIGHER               
RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO DROP HIGH TEMPS DOWN INTO THE            
MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S. HIGHEST AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR            
EAST AWAY FROM THE BEST FRONTAL LIFT.                                           
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY FINDS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL ACROSS THE             
SOUTHEAST WITH PERIODIC PIECES OF ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE TO AID IN            
LARGE-SCALE LIFT. THE SURFACE FRONTAL WAVE ALSO MOVES OVERHEAD AND              
THEN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. USING A GFS SOLUTION                 
WOULD YIELD HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTH AND EAST IN CLOSER PROXIMITY              
TO THE DEEP MOISTURE. CURRENT POPS ARE WELL BELOW THE MAV                       
GUIDANCE...BUT ARE A LARGE JUMP FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IN                  
RESPECT FOR THE FLIP-FLOPPING NATURE OF THE GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST              
24 HOURS WILL NOT MAKE ANY LARGER OF A JUMP IN CASE FUTURE RUNS HEAD            
BACK TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
FORECAST WATERS REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND             
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST            
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH TONIGHT AND TRACK EAST TO THE               
NORTH OF THE WATER INTO SUNDAY. WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS LOW THE               
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTENING AND MAY SEE WINDS AND SEAS NEARING                     
CAUTIONARY LEVELS THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. TROUGH THEN SETTLES SOUTH              
OVER THE WATERS LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH WIND AND SEAS                     
SUBSIDING. KEEPING AN EYE ON THE TROPICS FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT             
WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO APPROACH THE              
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. SEE THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE                    
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR FURTHER DETAILS.                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT AREA TERMINALS FOR THE BALANCE OF                
TODAY. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED ENOUGH TODAY TO ONLY                
MERIT CB CLOUD GROUPS. OVERNIGHT...MVFR VSBY WILL PREVAIL FOR A FEW             
HOURS AT ABY AND VLD...STARTING BETWEEN 06-09Z. FOR SAT... THERE IS             
A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW EARLY CONVECTION WILL GET STARTED.               
FOR NOW, CHANCES ARE GREAT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A MORNING PROB30 GROUP             
AT PFN AND DHN.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER EVEN A REMOTE POSSIBILITY FOR SAT             
AND SUN.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  71  88  72  88  71 /  20  60  50  50  30                           
PANAMA CITY  76  86  76  86  74 /  30  60  50  50  20                           
DOTHAN       70  87  70  87  69 /  20  60  50  40  20                           
ALBANY       70  89  70  88  69 /  20  50  50  40  20                           
VALDOSTA     69  90  70  88  70 /  20  50  50  50  30                           
CROSS CITY   71  89  72  87  71 /  30  60  40  50  30                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE...MROCZKA                                            
AVIATION/FIRE WX...WOOL                                                         
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
945 AM EDT FRI 15 2008                                                          
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
13Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LARGE AND                
UNSEASONABLE ELONGATED LONGWAVE TROUGH COVERING ALL BUT THE FAR                 
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONTINENT. TWO MAIN PIECES OF ENERGY EMBEDDED            
WITHIN THE FLOW OF THIS TROUGH INCLUDE A CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW                   
SLIDING SOUTH THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST...AND ANOTHER CLOSED              
LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. LOCAL AREA RESIDES ON              
THE FAR SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH THE OVERHEAD            
FLOW CURRENTLY TAKING ON A MORE ZONAL APPEARANCE BETWEEN                        
SHORTWAVES.                                                                     
AT THE SURFACE...WEAK TROUGH CONTINUES TO HOLD POSITION WEST TO EAST            
ACROSS THE AREA FROM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE EXACT POSITION OF             
THE TROUGH AXIS IS UP FOR DEBATE BUT IS LAYING SOMEWHERE ALONG OR               
JUST NORTH OF THE GULF COAST. BEST FOCUS FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE              
REMAINS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY (SHOWN BY LATEST RUC                 
ANALYSIS) OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT A                 
SETUP AS TO WHAT WAS SEEN ON THURSDAY AND ONCE AGAIN IS RESULTING IN            
A BAND OF SCT-NMRS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS            
INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE MAIN THRUST OF THE                
CONVECTION THIS MORNING HAS BEEN INTO THE COASTLINE SOUTH OF DIXIE              
COUNTY AND TO THE NORTH OF TAMPA. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TO START OUT               
THE MORNING OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES                  
WARMING INTO THE 80S.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN CONVERGENCE BAND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS             
TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. OVERALL SHOWER AND               
THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE ACROSS LAND AREAS DOES LOOK TO BE LESS THAN              
PREVIOUS DAYS. HOWEVER...WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA A                
COMPLETELY DRY DAY IS UNLIKELY AND SHOULD SEE ENOUGH FOCUS FOR                  
WIDELY SCT TO SCT SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATER                    
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LIGHT NW FLOW IN THE 1000-700MB LAYER WOULD                
SUGGEST THAT THE BEST COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS WOULD BE ACROSS                 
GULF/FRANKLIN/WAKULLA/LIBERTY COUNTIES WHERE CONVERGENCE IS                     
MAXIMIZED ALONG INLAND PROPAGATING SEA-BREEZES. OTHER AREAS MORE                
LIKELY TO SEE SHOWERS WOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BIG BEND AS              
OCCASIONAL ELEMENTS FROM THE MAIN CONVERGENCE BAND OVER THE WATER               
RIDE NORTH AND INTERSECT THE COASTLINE.                                         
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR A PARTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES                  
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S.                                                     
MID-LEVEL ENERGY DIVING SOUTH THROUGH THE UPPER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY                
THIS EVENING WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY THE FLOW INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN               
STATES INTO SATURDAY. SHOULD SEE MOST CONVECTION OVER THE                       
LANDMASS DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL                 
HEATING. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND               
INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT FROM THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL                 
ALLOW THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TO GET ITS ACT                   
TOGETHER ONCE AGAIN (ESPECIALLY LATE). AS ALWAYS THERE IS THE CHANCE            
THAT THIS CONVECTION COULD EFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GULF/FRANKLIN            
COUNTIES AND OVER INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN BIG BEND AS THE OVERALL FLOW            
PUSHES THE CONVECTION FROM WEST TO EAST.                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
OVERALL FLOW HAS COME DOWN A BIT THIS MORNING FOR THE COASTAL LEGS              
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLY INFLUENCE BY SCT-NMRS SHOWERS AND                
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY GUSTY IN THE VICINITY OF THESE             
STORMS. SEAS CURRENTLY IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE             
DOWN TOWARD AROUND 2 FEET THIS EVENING. WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY               
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS BECOMING             
NMRS TO WIDESPREAD DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY                    
MORNING.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ONCE THE MVFR HAZE LIFTS FROM ABY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT              
AREA TERMINALS FOR THE BALANCE OF TODAY. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE            
ISOLATED ENOUGH TODAY TO ONLY MERIT CB CLOUD GROUPS. ONE EXCEPTION              
IS PFN WHERE A PROB30 GROUP WAS INCLUDED FOR LATE AFTERNOON TS.                 
OVERNIGHT...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBY IS FORECAST FOR ABY AND VLD.            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
347 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH WILL              
CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE               
WEEKEND. FOR TODAY...SFC TROUGH WHICH PRODUCED THE HEAVY RAINS OF               
THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE             
FORECAST AREA DRIER AND MORE STABLE FOR TODAY WITH WESTERLY LOW                 
LEVEL FLOW. STILL EXPECT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS                            
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FLORIDA ZONES...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE            
GREATLY DIMINISHED.                                                             
BY SATURDAY...THE GFS BRINGS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE INTO THE BASE OF             
THE TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL LIFT AND CONVERGENCE            
ALONG A WEAK SFC TROUGH. POPS SHOULD BE HIGHER ON SATURDAY.                     
HOWEVER...AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE IS A BIT UNCERTAIN AND WILL              
KEEP POPS IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE. THE AFOREMENTIONED                     
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY WITH DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW            
SETTLING IN ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY WITH               
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CLOSE TO THE COAST.                                     
WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR NEXT FEW DAYS...AFTERNOON              
TEMPS MAY RISE JUST ABOVE CLIMO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S.                      
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES                    
CONTINUE TO FORECAST A DECREASE IN THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL             
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. NEXT WEEK...WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEP               
LAYER RIDGING ACCOMPANIED BY SOME DRYING THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE            
OF THE WEEK. THIS WOULD IMPLY BELOW NORMAL POPS AND ABOVE NORMAL MAX            
TEMPERATURES. THE WILD CARD IN THE FORECAST IS THE ULTIMATE                     
DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING              
WESTWARD OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TOWARD PUERTO RICO. THERE HAS BEEN             
SOME CONVERGENCE OF SOLUTIONS BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS...BUILDING A            
STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST STORM TRACK ACROSS NEW                
ENGLAND AND THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC TOWARD THE END OF THE                        
WEEK...EFFECTIVELY BLOCKING NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE TROPICAL                  
SYSTEM. A TROPICAL STORM TRACKING NORTHWARD TO THE EAST OF FLORIDA              
WOULD IMPLY GENERALLY DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA                 
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE SAME SYSTEM TRACKING                
WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA WOULD IMPLY MORE MOISTURE AND A               
GREATER THREAT OF CLOUDS PRECIPITATION...ULTIMATELY DEPENDING ON THE            
ACTUAL TRACK THE SYSTEM WOULD TAKE. WILL TREND POPS UPWARD AND                  
TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD MORE TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE PERIOD                    
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...RECOGNIZING THE LATTER PART OF THE                  
FORECAST CONTAINS SIGNIFICANTLY GREATER UNCERTAINTY THAN USUAL.                 
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE DRIEST AIR WILL REMAIN TO               
THE NORTH OF OUR AREA TODAY...SO WITH LESS DRY AIR PENETRATION                  
SOUTHWARD EXPECT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS            
THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE A BIT OVER THE                 
WEEKEND. THEN HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO             
BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER                 
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES TO THE NORTH...SO FUTURE FORECASTS SHOULD              
BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE AFTERNOON RED FLAG CONDITIONS OVER SOME               
INLAND PORTIONS OF FLORIDA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE                 
FURTHER INTO NEXT WEEK WE LOOK...THE MORE UNCERTAINTY WE SEE IN THE             
FORECAST...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF A TROPICAL STORM SOMEWHERE              
TO THE EAST OR SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT                   
WEEK...SO LONGER RANGE PLANS SHOULD BE MADE ACCORDINGLY.                        
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  93  70  93  70  93 /  30  20  40  20  20                           
PANAMA CITY  89  76  89  73  90 /  30  20  30  20  20                           
DOTHAN       94  71  91  69  92 /  20  10  30  10  10                           
ALBANY       94  68  93  69  93 /  20  10  30  10  10                           
VALDOSTA     93  69  93  68  92 /  30  10  30  20  10                           
CROSS CITY   90  71  91  71  92 /  40  30  40  20  20                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/UPDATE/MARINE...MROCZKA                                                
AVIATION...WOOL                                                                 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CAMP/DUVAL                                                
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
357 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY                                                          
NEAR STAGNANT UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES                   
PROVIDED YET ANOTHER FRONTAL PUSH YESTERDAY...ALLOWING SLIGHTLY                 
DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO CONTINUALLY INFILTRATE THE REGION OVERNIGHT.            
THIS CAN BE OBSERVED BY THE PERSISTENT NE FLOW ANT MANY REPORTING               
STATIONS ACROSS THE FA. SKIES HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED AS OF 07Z...SAVE A            
FEW CIRRUS IN THE SOUTH. DEWPOINTS AND TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE               
LOW TO MID 50S WITH NO NOTED SIG VSBY RESTRICTIONS. RAINFALL                    
YESTERDAY EVENING HAS PROVIDED SAT NEAR SFC CONDITIONS AT SOME                  
AREAS. HOWEVER...NEAR 20 KNOTS FLOW 1 TO 2 KFT OFF THE SFC PER IWX              
VWP IS PROVIDING ENOUGH TURBULENT MIXING TO STAVE ANYTHING MORE THAN            
PATCHY GROUND FG. HAVE DROPPED FOG MENTION TO PATCHY...MAINLY                   
CONFINED TO AREAS THAT RECEIVED PRECIP LAST EVENING.                            
OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A DRIFTING CLOSED LOW                  
OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WITH NEAR REX BLOCK CONDITIONS ALLOWING                
FOR SLOW PATTERN EVOLUTION THE NEXT FEW DAYS.                                   
LINGERING VORT MAX CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL                   
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WX IN THE FA AS ANOTHER WEAK VORT LOBE SPINS             
INTO THE EASTERN MI THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST MODELS AR NOT OVERLY               
EXCITED AT PRECIP PROSPECTS IN THE LOCAL FA. THE WRF IS PERHAPS THE             
MOST AGGRESSIVE...PRODUCING A LARGE SWATH OF QPF ACROSS THE NE THIRD            
OF THE FA...WHILE THE GFS/UKMET/ECMWF ALL PREFER DRY CONDITIONS.                
THERE WILL BE WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH MAINLY COLD H5 TEMPS TO             
WORK WITH UNDER AN INCREASINGLY SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT. SFC MOISTURE             
WILL BE LIMITED AND IF THE MAV NUMBERS PAN OUT...THE NE MAY SEE                 
DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE 40S. THINKING THIS IS A LITTLE TOO DRY GIVEN            
NE FLOW OFF OF LK HURON AND UPSTREAM OBS FROM YESTERDAY. CONVECTIVE             
POTENTIAL GIVEN ADVANCING COLD POOL AND A PROLONGED PERIOD OF                   
INSOLATION LOOKS GOOD ENOUGH TO AT LEAST WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS             
IN THE NE. THIS IS IN LINE WITH RUC13/SREF/WRF PROGS. THINGS WILL BE            
HIGHLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY WAIN BY                     
SUNSET. DRY AIR IN PLACE/LIMITED SOIL MOISTURE/MOSTLY CLEAR                     
SKIES/AND CALM WINDS WILL SUPPORT EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING                 
FRI NIGHT. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD LOWS AROUND 50 WITH A FEW AREAS IN              
THE UPPER 40S...NOT YOUR TYPICAL AUGUST READINGS.                               
SFC AND UPPER LEVEL RIDING WILL PROVIDE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY                  
CONDITIONS SAT. ADDED BL MOISTURE FROM LK MI MAY PROVIDE A MOSTLY TO            
PT CLOUDY SKY IN THE NW GIVEN PROGGED LK INSTABILITY...BUT THINGS               
SHOULD MIX OUT BY LATE MORNING. LOOK FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS WITH             
DRY CONDITIONS. NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER SAT               
NIGHT...AS SEVERAL RIDGE TOPPING IMPULSES WILL SPILL INTO THE UPPER             
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AND COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME MID LEVEL            
CLOUD AND MAYBE AN OUTSIDE SHOWER IN THE FAR NORTH...BUT GIVEN                  
UNKNOWN INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THESE FEATURES...A DRY FORECAST IS               
PRUDENT AT THIS TIME.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PERSISTENT BLOCKING PATTERN WILL                  
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER LOW CUTS OFF OVER THE HIGH              
PLAINS OR CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE LATEST GFS AND                
ECMWF MODEL TRENDS FAVOR THE PREVIOUS FEW RUNS OF KEEPING THE UPPER             
LOW TO THE WEST WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.                 
THERE IS ALSO WIDESPREAD GFS ENSEMBLE SUPPORT OF THE RIDGE                      
PERSISTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SO WILL                   
MAINTAIN THE ONGOING DRY FORECAST. HOWEVER...SOME CONCERN WITH A                
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST IN NW FLOW ON SUNDAY...WITH THE                    
POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME SHOWERS AT LEAST TO NORTHERN AREAS INCLUDING            
FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MI...FAR NW INDIANA AND NW OH. THE NAM/WRF IS                
MORE ROBUST WITH THIS FEATURE THEN THE GFS...SO WITH TIMING AND                 
STRENGTH UNCERTAINTIES...KEPT SUNDAY DRY. OTHERWISE...WITH THE UPPER            
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA...RAISED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES MOST            
PERIODS AFTER SUNDAY.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../06Z TAFS/                                                          
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AS UPPER                   
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MAIN                   
CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE BR/FG DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY AT FWA                   
WHERE RAIN OCCURRED LAST EVENING. SOUNDING PROGS INDICATE                       
SUSTAINED NE FLOW JUST OFF THE SFC...WHICH WOULD ACT TO STAVE OFF               
ANY WIDESPREAD BR/FG DEVELOPMENT PER TURBULENT MIXING OF DRY AIR                
ALOFT. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT AREAS OF SHALLOW BR/FG TO BE ONGOING BY              
MID MORNING DUE TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING PER CLEAR SKIES AND                 
RATHER LIGHT SFC WINDS. HAVE WENT WITH 6SM AT FWA...WITH                        
RESTRICTIONS DOWN TO 3SM POSSIBLE. EVEN LOWER VISBYS ARE A                      
POSSIBILITY...BUT GIVEN CONCERNS TURBULENT MIXING POTENTIAL AND                 
ADVANCING CIRRUS...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANYTHING LOWER...RELYING ON                 
CLIMO.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...CHAMBERLAIN                                                        
LONG TERM...SKIPPER                                                             
AVIATION...CHAMBERLAIN                                                          
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA                                         
849 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MINOR UPDATE TO WEATHER AND POPS FOR TONIGHT...AS OVERALL                       
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE HAS DECREASED SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE LAST COUPLE              
OF HOURS. AFTER LOOKING AT SATELLITE TRENDS AND LATEST RUC                      
ANALYSIS...HAVE LOWERED POPS ABOUT 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE BOARD.                 
KEEP ISOLATED POPS OVER THE COASTAL ZONES...WITH SCATTERED POPS                 
OVER NORTHERN ZONES...CLOSER TO WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE CURRENTLY                 
OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. NO OTHER UPDATES TO THE FORECAST WERE                 
MADE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2008/                         
SYNOPSIS...                                                                     
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE               
SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS MOVED NORTHWARD AND IS EVIDENT AS A GENERAL                
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA...ALABAMA AND                      
MISSISSIPPI...NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THUS FAR                    
CONVECTION HAS MAINLY BEEN LIMITED TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE             
10/12 CORRIDOR. CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER               
80S ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH A FEW MORE DEGREES OF WARMING WILL                 
BE POSSIBLE.                                                                    
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...                                          
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE IN THE FIRST PERIOD. THERE IS SOME                  
CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD CONCERNING PROBABILITY OF PRECIP FOR                  
TONIGHT. THE NAM IS FORECASTING 10 TO 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE BOARD               
WHILE THE ECM IS COMING IN AROUND 40 PERCENT. THE GFS IS                        
CONSIDERABLY WETTER AT AROUND 60 PERCENT FOR MOST OF THE AREA                   
WITH. WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE                  
REGION TONIGHT...WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED POPS UP INTO THE HIGH END                
CHANCE CATEGORY. THE LARGE AREA OF QPF GREATER THAN ONE INCH IN                 
THE GFS IS AT LEAST PARTIALLY DUE TO GRID-SCALE FEEDBACK. HPC HAS               
NOTED THAT BULLSEYES IN THE GFS GENERALLY SIGNAL HEAVY PRECIP                   
POTENTIAL...BUT ARE OFTEN TOO FAR TO THE NORTH. WITH THIS IN                    
MIND...WILL GO AHEAD AND CARRY HEAVIER PRECIP IN THE COASTAL AREAS              
AND WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN IN AN UPDATED                    
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.                                                      
BEYOND TONIGHT...THE FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH. SOUTHERLY FLOW              
WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WITH SCATTERED                
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...                
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.                                                        
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...                                           
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LARGE DIFFERENCES BOTH WITH EACH OTHER AND              
FROM RUN TO RUN. WITH VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE MODEL                   
SOLUTION...HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST SINCE IT WAS              
ALREADY IN LINE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH CALLS FOR NEAR                 
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS                  
EACH AFTERNOON.                                                                 
ONE FEATURE THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED IS TROPICAL STORM FAY.                 
THE MODELS CANNOT SEEM TO GET A HANDLE ON THE INITIAL POSITION                  
AND MOTION OF FAY...WHICH RESULTS IN LARGE RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES               
IN THE FORECAST LOCATION. AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE FAY                
WILL BE MUCH OF A THREAT TO OUR FORECAST AREA. FOR MORE                         
INFORMATION ON FAY...REFER TO NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ADVISORIES              
AND FORECASTS.                                                                  
AVIATION...                                                                     
CONVECTION MAINLY WAS AFFECTING THE BATON ROUGE THROUGH NEW ORLEANS             
AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH                    
SUNSET...ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING/SPREADING            
INTO THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING.  FOR TOMORROW MORNING THE TAFS WILL             
BE LIMITED TO INDICATING CB THROUGH 18Z.  OUTSIDE CONVECTION AND                
3-5SM FOG AROUND DAYBREAK...CONDITIONS GENERALLY SHOULD REMAIN VFR              
AT MSY...BTR...GPT...MCB.                                                       
MARINE...                                                                       
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA                 
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE WITH THE TRACK OF               
THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.             
IF IT TRACKS ON THE WEST SIDE OF FLORIDA...WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE              
HIGHER AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.                                          
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
MCB  72  86  71  88 /  30  60  30  30                                           
BTR  74  87  73  89 /  30  60  30  30                                           
MSY  76  88  75  89 /  20  60  30  30                                           
GPT  74  86  73  88 /  20  60  30  30                                           
&&                                                                              
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LA...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
MS...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> la                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA                                          
414 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
COMPLICATED FORECAST THROUGH BOTH THE SHORT AND LONG TERM...AS MANY             
SUBTLE FEATURES WILL COME INTO PLAY AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW WHICH               
CONTINUES TO DROP S ALONG THE ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND. 20Z SFC ANALYSIS            
IS VERY DIFFICULT TO ANALYZE A FRONTAL BNDRY...GIVEN MULTIPLE OUTFLOWS          
WHICH HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO BECOME QUITE VRB ACROSS THE REGION. BUT A            
WEAK COOL FRONTAL BNDRY APPEARS TO STRETCH FROM JUST N OF THE RED               
RIVER IN SRN OK...INTO WCNTRL AND NRN AR THIS AFTERNOON.                        
MEANWHILE...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATE A WELL-DEFINED SPIN                
BETWEEN GYI AND MLC THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH 850MB LOW.          
WATER VAPOR LOOPS ARE INDICATE LEAD SHORTWAVE NOW TRAVERSING INTO SW            
AR ATTM...WHICH SHOULD EXIT THE REGION TO THE E AFTER 6Z TONIGHT. THE           
LATEST RUC/NAM/GFS ALL INDICATE THE 850MB LOW AND ITS ATTENDANT TROUGH          
AXIS AND SFC FRONTAL BNDRY DRIFTING SE ACROSS EXTREME NE TX AND INTO            
NRN LA LATER TONIGHT...WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING IN VC OF          
THE LOW ACROSS EXTREME E TX/NW LA/SW AR LATE...TYPICAL WITH A SUCH A            
CLOSED CIRCULATION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. THUS...WE MIGHT END UP IN A        
HIGH POP/LOW QPF EVENT TONIGHT...BUT GIVEN CONSISTENCY AMONGST THE              
SHORT TERM MODELS...HAVE INCREASED POPS TONIGHT TO HIGH CHANCE JUST             
ABOUT AREAWIDE...WITH LIKELY POPS CONCENTRATED NEAR THE PATH OF THE             
850MB LOW BY 6Z. MOSAIC RADAR ALSO INDICATING A LARGE MASS OF                   
CONVECTION DRIFTING N FROM SE TX/SRN LA...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID            
LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. MODELS NOT HANDLING THIS WELL AT ALL...BUT AM                 
THINKING THIS MAY WIND DOWN SOME AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH REMNANT   
OUTFLOWS COULD INTERACT WITH THE 850MB LOW AND ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL             
REGENERATION ACROSS NCNTRL LA.                                                  
THE 850MB LOW WILL SLOWLY CREEP E ACROSS N LA SATURDAY MORNING...EXITING        
THE AREA AFTER 18Z. THUS...RETAINED HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS N                   
LA/SCNTRL AR...LIKELIES FOR ERN NCNTRL LA...WITH THE SHRA AND ISOLATED          
CONVECTION ENDING FROM W TO E. WEAK FRONTAL BNDRY WILL LIKELY SAG               
SLOWLY S OF I-20 SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE STALLING ACROSS DEEP E             
TX/NCNTRL OR CNTRL LA. MUCH LIKE TODAY...MAX TEMPS SATURDAY ARE                 
ANYONE/S GUESS...BUT BELIEVE CLOUD COVER/RAIN WILL INHIBIT MUCH OF A            
WARMUP...THUS HAVE TRENDED TEMPS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS /IN THE MID/UPPER           
80S/. THE 850MB TROUGH WILL LIKELY HANG UP SOMEWHERE S OF I-20                  
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH DIRTY NW FLOW WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND          
AHEAD OF THE SWD DIGGING CLOSED LOW. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD            
BE ABLE TO BACKDOOR FAR ENOUGH S INTO SE OK/SW AR SUNDAY...THUS HAVE            
DROPPED POPS FOR THESE AREAS...WITH 850MB TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED                 
STATIONARY FRONTAL BNDRY HANGING TO THE S.                                      
THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CLOSED LOW ENTERING THE            
OK/TX PANHANDLES SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A SSE RETURN FLOW COMMENCING               
ACROSS TX. THUS...THE SFC BNDRY WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO WORK BACK NNW              
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH AREAS OF CONVECTION LIKELY DEVELOPING ACROSS                
CNTRL/S TX AND SPREADING N ACROSS THE STATE. GIVEN POSITIONING                  
UNCERTAINTIES IN RECENT MODEL RUNS...CAN NOT QUITE BITE ON LIKELY POPS          
YET...BUT HIGH CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN ACROSS E TX MONDAY...WHICH               
COULD POSSIBLY SPREAD A TAD E INTO WRN LA/SW AR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.           
HAVE AGAIN HIGHLIGHTED HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN THE AFTERNOON                    
HWO...WITH PERSISTENT TRAINING OVER ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS POSSIBLY          
LEADING TO AN INCREASED FLASH FLOOD RISK. PROGS STILL INDICATE THIS             
SYSTEM STAYING PUT THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK...AS BROAD UPPER RIDGING           
EXPANDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTY. TROUGH MAY BEGIN TO OPEN UP/EJECT            
NE OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY...BUT HAVE RETAINED LOW CHANCE      
POPS AREAWIDE SHOULD THIS SYSTEM REMAIN IN PLACE.                               
PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...                                                      
15                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS             
THE REGION AND MOVE NORTHEAST. THE CONVECTION MAY DECREASE IN                   
COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET...BUT AT MINIMUM...ISOLATED COVERAGE IS                   
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. CIGS AND VSBYS FREQUENTLY MVFR IN AND            
AROUND THE CONVECTION...WITH LOCALIZED IFR IN THE STRONGER STORMS.              
IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...ESPECIALLY AFTER               
06Z...AS WET GROUND AND STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER RESULT IN FOG                     
FORMATION AND ASSOCIATED LIFR CIGS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE SLOWLY            
AFTER 16/15Z...BUT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE. /14/                   
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
SHV  72  86  71  89  71 /  60  50  20  20  20                                   
MLU  72  86  70  90  71 /  50  60  20  20  20                                   
DEQ  69  85  66  88  68 /  50  30  20  10  10                                   
TXK  71  86  69  90  71 /  60  40  20  10  10                                   
ELD  70  86  66  90  69 /  50  50  20  10  10                                   
TYR  70  87  71  88  72 /  30  20  20  20  30                                   
GGG  71  87  70  88  71 /  50  20  20  20  30                                   
LFK  73  90  72  89  72 /  50  40  30  30  40                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AR...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
15/14                                                                           
</pre> la                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA                                          
1121 AM CDT FRI AUG 15 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES LEAD SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE RED                 
RIVER VALLEY OVER SRN OK/N TX AHEAD OF CLOSED LOW DIGGING S ACROSS              
WYOMING ATTM...WITH MOSAIC 88-D IMAGERY INDICATING LARGE AREA OF                
CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM NEAR SEP...TO CRS...TO TYR...INTO                     
SW/SCNTRL AR. THE RUC INITIALIZED BEST ON THE CURRENT                           
CONVECTION...WITH DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO ADVANCE SE ACROSS SE                   
OK/ADJACENT SW AR...THUS ALLOWING RAIN AREA TO DIMINISH THE LAST                
CPL HRS. HOWEVER...CONVECTION IS MORE ORGANIZED ALONG THE BASE OF               
THE TROUGH ALONG I-20 W OF TYR...THUS HAVE CONCENTRATED BEST POPS               
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE WRN SECTIONS OF E TX. IN                        
ADDITION...LEAD OUTFLOW BNDRY HAS ADVANCED WELL SE OF THE                       
CONVECTION...AND WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR HEMPHILL...TO RSN...TO E OF              
ELD AS OF 16Z. BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPS TO               
WARM IN THE MID 80S ACROSS SE TX/CNTRL LA WHERE OUTFLOW BNDRY HAS               
YET TO AFFECT THESE AREAS...THUS WITH TIME...BELIEVE MORE WIDELY                
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH                      
SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO DROP MORE ESE INTO SW AR BY                               
AFTERNOON...BELIEVE THE CURRENT ORGANIZED CONVECTION MAY DIMINISH               
SOME AS IT ENTERS DEEP E TX...BUT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BNDRY                    
SETTING UP AHEAD OF THE COMPLEX WILL LIKELY FUEL THESE STORMS                   
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. HAVE RAISED POPS ACROSS DEEP              
E TX/NW LA...WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE TO POPS.                              
AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL BE A TOUGH CALL...GIVEN THE                            
RAIN/EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...BUT HAVE LOWERED TEMPS ACROSS MUCH OF              
THE AREA...WITH SE OK/E TX/SW AR LIKELY NOT GETTING OUT OF THE                  
80S. WILL ADDRESS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE              
CLOSED LOW DIVING S INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY MONDAY IN THE AFTERNOON DISCUSSION.  
ZONES ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.                            
15                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SHRA/TSRA WEST AND NORTH OF ELD-TYR LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST             
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT                  
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING TONIGHT. CIGS AND VSBYS            
FREQUENTLY MVFR IN AND AROUND THE CONVECTION...WITH LOCALIZED IFR               
IN THE STRONGER STORMS. IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BECOME MORE                     
WIDESPREAD...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z...AS WET GROUND AND STABLE                    
BOUNDARY LAYER RESULT IN FOG FORMATION AND ASSOCIATED LIFR CIGS.                
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE SLOWLY AFTER 16/15Z...BUT ADDITIONAL                  
CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE. /14/                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
SHV  90  72  89  70  90 /  50  40  50  20  40                                   
MLU  93  70  86  68  91 /  30  40  50  20  20                                   
DEQ  86  68  86  66  88 /  60  40  50  30  50                                   
TXK  87  70  88  69  89 /  60  40  50  20  40                                   
ELD  89  70  89  66  90 /  40  40  50  20  20                                   
TYR  87  73  90  71  89 /  70  30  40  40  50                                   
GGG  87  71  89  70  88 /  70  30  50  30  50                                   
LFK  92  72  90  71  90 /  40  20  50  30  50                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AR...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
15/14                                                                           
</pre> la                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME                                             
243 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH              
SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN LATER SUNDAY INTO                    
SUNDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON MONDAY AND                   
CROSS THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE                
REGION BY LATE NEXT WEEK.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED EARLIER TODAY OVER                  
SOUTHERN PORTION OF WASHINGTON COUNTY AND COASTAL WATERS SO                     
ADJUSTED GRIDS TO BETTER THIS EVENT. FOR REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON                 
HAVE USED 1500Z RUC13 TO CREATE INITIAL GRIDS FOR ALL PARAMETERS.               
HAVE MANUALLY ADJUSTED POP...SKY AND QPF AREA TO BETTER FIT RUC                 
VORTICITY FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING SINCE THERE SEEMS               
TO BE GOOD CORRELATION BETWEEN THE TWO. FOR LATER TONIGHT HAVE USED             
MODEL BLEND OF NAM12...GFS40 AND SREF THEN MERGED MODEL BLEND DATA              
WITH TODAYS RUC13 DATA. EXPECT UPPER LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE TO THE                
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT ALONG WITH ACCOMPANYING                 
VORTICITY MAX. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY AS UPPER                
SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. FOR WIND HAVE USED GMOS.                  
HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE OR DEW POINT WHICH                     
APPEARS TO BE WORKING WELL.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                         
MAIN FOCUS WILL BE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY APCHG THE CWA MONDAY                   
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFT A BRIEF BREAK ON SUNDAY.                       
DECIDED ON A GFS40/SREF BLEND INTO TUESDAY. ECMWF WAS USED FOR                  
PLACEMENT AS IT HAS BEEN CONSISTENT W/SLOWING THINGS DOWN UNTIL                 
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND HANGING ON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY UNTIL UPPER               
TROF SWINGS THROUGH.                                                            
SO LET/S BEGIN...SFC TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON                 
SUNDAY W/SOME WEAK FORCING IN THE MID-LVLS TO ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLD              
SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA EARLY ON AND THEN ATMOS LOOKS TO DRY OUT                 
W/SOME DOWNSLOPING WINDS FROM 925-850MBS. MDL SNDGS POINT TO                    
THINGS BEING STABLE W/LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY SB/MUCAPE.                       
THEREFORE...OPTED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDER OF FOR SUNDAY.                 
GMOS TEMPS ACCEPTED W/READINGS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S ACROSS THE N                
AND AROUND 80 CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.                                       
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE W ON                  
MONDAY W/LLVL WAA OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY ON. SOME INSOLATION              
THROUGH 18Z ESP S OF CAR-PQI SHOULD ALLOW FOR DESTABILIZATION TO                
OCCUR. LAPSE RATES ARE PROGGED TO STEEPEN W/700-500 MB LAPSE RATES              
AROUND 6.5 C/KM. DECENT SHEAR IS NOTED ESP FROM 0-6KM AROUND 30                 
KTS. SB CAPES THIS FAR OUT SUGGEST 1000-1500 J/KG IN THE                        
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. DECIDED TO ADD SCT TSTMS FOR MONDAY                       
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO SHARPEN                
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. TRIED               
TO SHOW POPS SHIFTING E W/THE FRONT W/VALUES DECG TO THE CHC                    
CATEGORY BY MID MORNING TUESDAY AS MOST OF THE FORCING MOVES INTO               
NEW BRUNSWICK.                                                                  
ONCE AGAIN USED THE GMOS TEMPERATURES AND ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY ESP              
FOR MONDAY MAXES TO PLAY THEM ON THE UPWARD SIDE W/HEATING EARLY.               
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                  
GMOS WAS LOADED HERE AND ONCE AGAIN USING THE 00Z ECMWF AS A GUIDE              
ADJUSTED POPS MAINLY LATER IN THE WEEK TO KNOCK THEM BACK A BIT.                
OTRW...NO CHGS MADE. MIDNIGHT CREW CAN ADJUST W/THE NEXT RUN.                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                   
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDTIONS TONIGHT IN NORTH. FOR KBGR AND                  
KBHB EXPECT IFR CONDTIONS TONIGHT DUE TO CEILING AND VISIBILITY                 
DUE TO BOTH FOG AND SHOWERS.                                                    
LOOKING FURTHER OUT: VFR MOSTLY RIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THEN                      
CONDITIONS DROP BACK LATER MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY TO                      
MVFR/IFR AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.                           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NEAR TERM: WINDS VERY LIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. HAVE                     
INITIALIZED WIND GRIDS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING THEN MERGED WIND                 
GRIDS WITH NAM12 WINDS LATER TONIGHT. HAVE LOWERED SPEEDS 2 KNOTS               
TO ADJUST FOR BOUNDARY LAYER. FOR WAVES: SWELL FIELD CONTINUES TO               
DOMINATE. WNA APPEARS TO HAVE GOOD HANDLE ON LONG PERIOD WAVES SO               
WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 3                  
FEET AND ALSO ADJUST WAVES IN INTRA-COASTAL ZONE. WILL ADD WIDE                 
SPREAD FOG THIS AFTERNOON THRU 06Z WITH BUOY REPORTS VISIBILITY                 
BELOW 1 NM.                                                                     
SHORTER TERM: NO HEADLINES. STARTED WINDS OUT USING NAM12/GFFS40                
AND THEN WENT W/THE GFS40 WINDS W/ADJUSTMENTS DOWNWARD ESP AT                   
NIGHT. WNAWAVE LOOKS TO BE RUNNING HIGH FOR SEAS. DECIDED ON                    
CUTTING THE HEIGHTS BACK ONE FOOT THIS FCST CYCLE.                              
&&                                                                              
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ME...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE                                                             
SHORT TERM...HEWITT                                                             
LONG TERM...HEWITT/RAHE                                                         
AVIATION...MIGNONE                                                              
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT                                                         
</pre> me                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
121 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2008                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS                                        
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN            
OVER NOAM. A BROAD MID-LVL RIDGE WAS OVER SW CANADA AND MUCH OF THE             
WRN CONUS WHILE A TROF WAS OVER ERN CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL/ERN                 
GREAT LAKES. A CLOSED LOW HAS MOVED FROM SRN SASK INTO NE MT AND                
WILL HAVE LTL EFFECT ON OUR WX HERE. A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC COLD POOL            
MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROF HAS TRIGGERED SOME CONVECTION               
OVER FAR ERN UPR MI AS NOTED ON RADAR.                                          
 LOOKS LIKE MAY EVEN ALTHOUGH SHORTWAVE IS NOT PRODUCING MUCH IN THE            
WAY OF CLOUD COVER...RADARS IN ONTARIO DO SHOW A FEW -SHRA. ACROSS              
UPPER MI...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME CLOUDS OVER THE SW                        
THIRD...SKIES ARE CLEAR.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...                                             
SOME LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE ALONG DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY            
EVEN POP UP A SHOWER OVER SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON            
BUT ANY SHOWER WOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS MODEL SNDGS A SHARP INCREASE             
IN MID-LVL SUBSIDENCE TOWARD 00Z THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE                
SHORTWAVE.                                                                      
MODELS INDICATE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER RIDGE             
WL MOVE FROM NRN ONTARIO INTO NRN MN BY THU MORNING SO WOULD EXPECT             
THE WRN FCST AREA TO BE COOLEST TONIGHT. RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER              
CLEAR SKIES WILL ALSO BE ENHANCED BY DRY AIRMASS WITH PRECIPITABLE              
WATER VALUES AROUND 0.5 INCHES OR UNDER 60PCT OF NORMAL FOR THIS                
TIME OF YEAR. WILL CONTINUE TO GO BLO COOLEST MOS GUIDANCE OVER THE             
INTERIOR W (LOW/MID 40S) PER GOING FCST. FARTHER TO THE E OF THE                
HIGH...WINDS SHOULD MIX SOME OVER THE ERN FCST AREA...AND THERE MAY             
BE A SOME MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WRAPPING S AROUND LOW OVER SE CANADA LOW.             
WILL STAY CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE THERE WITH UPPER 50S ALONG LAKE                 
SUPERIOR AND LOW TO MID 50S INLAND. KEPT IN PATCHY FOG OVER THE                 
INTERIOR W HALF WHERE LIGHT/CALM WINDS AND CHILLY AIR OVERNIGHT                 
COULD GENERATE GROUND FOG AROUND INLAND LAKES/STREAMS AND LOW-LYING             
AREAS.                                                                          
UPR RDG AXIS WILL SETTLE S INTO THE UPPER LAKES ON FRI. AT THE                  
SFC...ASSOCIATED HIGH PRES WILL DRIFT SLOWLY S BY LATE FRI AS THE               
CORE OF THE DRY AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE FCST AREA DURING THE AFTN                
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALL TO AROUND 0.5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE            
AREA. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES TO DOMINATE FOR THE MOST PART WITH VERY                
LIMITED CU OVER INLAND AREAS. EXPECT DEEP MIXING TO AROUND 750MB                
UNDER THE DRY AIRMASS. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MAX TEMPS FRI WILL BE            
A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER AND DWPTS A COUPLE OF DEGREES LWR AS                 
DRIER/WARMER AIR MIXES TO THE SFC. RH`S VALUES COULD FALL TO AROUND             
25PCT WELL INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WHICH COULD BE A CONCERN FOR               
WILDFIRE POTENTIAL. FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH             
HIGH PRES IN THE VCNTY.                                                         
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT AND LATER                                             
A BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE CONUS AND             
WESTERN CANADA AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER SE CANADA/NEW ENGLAND.                
MAIN UPPER JET IS OVER HUDSON BAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK                  
SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO TO QUEBEC ON SATURDAY. WARM AIR              
ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN SOME CLOUD COVER THOUGH. DRY WEATHER WILL              
CONTINUE RIGHT THRU SUNDAY. MAX TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE IN             
THE 80S IN MOST AREAS WITH SUNDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY (IN THE MID             
80S) AS 850MB THERMAL RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF COLD                 
FRONT WHICH WILL DROP SOUTH TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THERE                 
SHOULD BE ENOUGH HEIGHT FALLS HEADING THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA TO               
SEND THAT FRONT INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY...PROVIDING THE            
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHRA/TSRA AT THAT TIME.                                    
A BROAD RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE CONUS            
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WHILE A LONGWAVE TROUGH STRETCHES FROM                
NORTHEAST QUEBEC SOUTHWEST INTO EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO. A WEAK                    
SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP THROUGH EASTERN ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT WILL                 
SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD                
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO. MOST OF THE                
INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO.                
WITH THE SURFACE INSTABILITY FROM THE FRONT AND WEAK SHORTWAVE                  
ENERGY EAST WILL NOT RULE OUT COMPLETELY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND                
THUNDERSTORMS...SO WILL CALL FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND                 
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.                                        
THE BROAD RIDGE AND LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH                
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA               
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE FRONT WORKS INTO SOUTHERN LOWER                 
MICHIGAN BRINGING DRY AIR TO THE REGION. UNDER DRY STABLE                       
AIR...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.                                               
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY.               
ECMWF IS CALLING FOR A WEAK SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE AREA AS WELL.                
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER LIMITED. THUS WILL KEEP JUST A SLIGHT               
CHANGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY.                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER AT BOTH SITES                
THROUGH THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE                    
FORECAST PERIOD.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER             
THE WRN GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS            
TO OVER FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY            
LATER THIS EVENING (BLO 15 KT) AS THE SFC HIGH BECOMES MORE CENTERED            
OVER THE REGION. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA             
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STRONGER WINDS...UP NEAR 25 KNOTS...SEEM                   
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE NORTH              
SIDE OF THE RIDGE. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL REMAIN 20 KNOTS OR LESS               
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JV                                                                 
LONG TERM...DLG                                                                 
AVIATION...RJT                                                                  
MARINE...JV                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
1125 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT TO             
OUR SOUTH ALONG INTERSTATE 10 WHILE THE WEAK BOUNDARY IN THE NORTH              
REMAINS JUST NORTH OF OUR CWFA. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWS SHOWERS                   
CONTINUING IN THE NORTH...NORTH OF HIGHWAY 82 AND THESE SHOULD DROP             
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND             
THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED IN THE SOUTH...SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 84 WITH                
WEAK IMPULSES COMBING WITH STALLED FRONT. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS              
EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH INTO OUR SOUTHERN ZONE THIS AFTERNOON. THE             
GFS HAS CONTINUED TO OVERDUE THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL               
PORTIONS OF OUR CWFA THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS             
SHOWS SHORTWAVES OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...SOUTHERN                  
PLAINS AND GULF COAST BUT NONE TO DIRECTLY INFLUENCE OUR CWFA THIS              
AFTERNOON. HAVE THUS CANCELED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT WAS IN                 
EFFECT. HAVE LOWERED POPS IN THE CENTRAL BUT INCREASED POPS SOME                
NORTH AND SOUTH. MAX TEMPS IN THE NORTH WILL HAVE A HARD TIME                   
REACHING LOWER 80S SO HAVE TRIMMED OFF SEVERAL DEGREES THERE THIS               
AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM TODAY APPEARS TO             
BE IN THE SOUTH SO HAVE KEPT WORDING IN THE HWO. UPDATES HAVE BEEN              
POSTED. /22/  I                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM...THE BAND OF HEAVIER RAINFALL                
OVER NRN ZONES WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING. TRAINING CELLS             
OVER THAT AREA HAVE PRODUCED LOCAL RAINFALL RATES FROM 2-3 INCHES AN            
HOUR. THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE DETERMINING             
FACTOR IN WHERE THE BEST RISK OF HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL OCCUR DURING             
THE DAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1.5 TO             
2 INCHES TODAY...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL              
GIVEN SUFFICIENT FORCING. GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT FRONTAL               
FORCING WILL SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH DURING THE DAY. THIS IS SUPPORTED              
BY UPPER TROUGHING THAT PIVOTS SWD AROUND THE EDGES OF THE ERN U.S.             
LOW. WILL FOLLOW MOS WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER ECENTRAL ZONES TODAY AS             
THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS SWD. ALSO OF CONCERN IS EVIDENCE OF PREDAWN                 
MESOSCALE CIRCULATION NOTED IN VICINITY OF MS/AL BORDER. LINGERING              
MESOSCALE EFFECTS...INCLUDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...MAY SERVE AS A               
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THE ABSENCE OF A PREDAWN                   
COMPLEX OR SIGNIFICANT WAVE TO PROVIDE WIDESPREAD LIFT SHOULD RESULT            
IN THE FLOODING RISK BEING MORE LOCALIZED IN NATURE. WILL MAINTAIN              
CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW BUT EXPECT IT TO BE WHITTLED DOWN             
SOMETIME DURING THE DAY AS THE BOUNDARY DROPS SWD. COOLER MOS HIGHS             
LOOK ON TRACK FOR TODAY. WILL SEE LOCALLY COOLER SPOTS DEPENDING ON             
LOCATIONS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY                     
AFTERNOON. STRONGER SURFACE TROUGHING BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE               
AREA TONIGHT...RESULTING IN DECREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND A              
DECREASING CHANCE OF RAINFALL OVERNIGHT. /03/                                   
SUNDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE A LITTLE BIT WET ACROSS THE                 
SOUTH BUT THE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE WAY DOWN COMPARED TO SAT.             
MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH AS OUR FRONT MOVES BACK TOWARDS            
THE GULF AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC SLOWLY WORKS A LITTLE FURTHER             
SOUTH FROM THE CNTRL CONUS. WE WILL ALSO BE IN BETWEEN DISTURBANCES.            
THE DISTURBANCE FROM THE ERN CONUS TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA            
AND THE FIRST OF MANY WAVES FROM THE UPPER LOW MOVING EAST OF THE               
ROCKIES WILL STILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST AND THIS WILL HELP KEEP RAIN              
CHANCES DOWN A LITTLE SUN.                                                      
LONG TERM...THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE                
RATHER DIFFICULT WITH VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. MDLS              
CONTINUE TO HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME FIGURING OUT HOW TO HANDLE THE                
UPPER LOW OVER THE ROCKIES...THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE ERN CONUS               
AND WHAT EFFECTS THAT WILL HAVE ON TROPICAL STORM FAY. WITH THIS I              
WILL STICK PRETTY CLOSE TO THE MEX GUI VALUES WITH A LEAN TOWARDS               
THE ENSEMBLE MEAN POP VALUES ON A FEW DAYS ESPECIALLY SINCE THE GFS             
HAS TRENDED A LITTLE WETTER AGAIN.                                              
FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK THE MAIN INFLUENCE TO OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER                
WILL BE THE UPPER LOW THAT APPEARS WILL MOVE INTO THE SRN PLAINS                
WHICH IS FURTHER SOUTH AND SLOWER THAN WHAT THE MDLS WERE EXPECTING             
24 HRS AGO. IN ADDITION THE MDLS ARE NOT BUILDING IN THE RIDGE OVER             
THE SERN/ERN CONUS NOW UNTIL MUCH LATER IN THE WEEK. AS MENTIONED               
LAST NIGHT IF BOTH OF THOSE FACTORS CHANGED TOWARDS WHAT IS BEING               
ADVERTISED NOW THE FORECAST WOULD NEED TO SHOW BETTER RAIN CHANCES.             
THIS IS NOW THE CASE AS THE MEX IS A GOOD BIT HIGHER WITH THE POPS              
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE WEEK. THIS LOOKS BETTER BUT I WILL STILL MAKE            
SOME CHANGES TO MON AND GO CLOSER TO THE ENS MEAN WHICH IS A BIT                
HIGHER. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE SRN PLAINS LATE                 
TUE/EARLY WED AND THEN BEGIN TO OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT TO THE NE THU.             
THIS WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF NUMEROUS WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE             
AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE IN NO SHORT SUPPLY AND THIS WOULD HELP KEEP              
SCT SHRA AND TSRA POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH ACTIVITY NOT COMPLETELY                
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN VERY SIMILAR                  
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 AND LOWS             
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.                                                        
THE OTHER CONCERN OF COURSE IS TROPICAL STORM FAY WHICH IS CURRENTLY            
MOVING OVER HAITI. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO MOVE INTO THE ERN               
GULF OF MEXICO...BECOME A HURRICANE AND TRACK JUST WEST OF THE FL               
PENINSULA MOVING INTO THE ERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE WED. THAT SAID              
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MDLS SO WE WILL NEED TO KEEP A                
CLOSE EYE ON THE SYSTEM TO SEE IF THERE IS ANY CHANCE OF IT GETTING             
FURTHER WEST. /CAB/                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...UPDATED...WE WILL SEE OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN                  
PATCHES OF RAIN AND MIST THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS...WITH BRIEF IFR              
CONDITIONS IN AREAS OF HEAVIER SHRA AND TSRA.  OTHERWISE BKN-OVC                
CIGS FROM 1250 TO 2500 FEET FROM A GLH TO HBG LINE AND POINTS SOUTH             
AND WEST...AND CIGS 2500 TO 5000 FEET NORTH AND EAST...WITH MULTIPLE            
CLOUD LAYERS EXTENDING UP TO 25 KFT.  SCATTERED SHRA AND ISOLATED               
TSRA WILL INCREASE WITH GREATER COVERAGE EXPECTED AFTER 20Z.  LIGHT             
TURBULENCE CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.  CONVECTION WILL DECREASE IN                   
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED SHRA MAINLY SOUTH             
OF A JAN TO MEI LINE BY MIDNIGHT. /DH/                                          
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       82  66  86  65 /  73  27  36  14                                  
MERIDIAN      82  65  87  65 /  73  34  34  14                                  
VICKSBURG     83  68  87  66 /  67  21  36  13                                  
HATTIESBURG   85  70  88  67 /  85  33  37  22                                  
NATCHEZ       83  68  86  67 /  66  20  31  22                                  
GREENVILLE    80  66  89  65 /  60  19  19  10                                  
GREENWOOD     80  65  90  64 /  65  24  18  10                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
22/03/CAB/DH                                                                    
</pre> ms                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
1141 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2008                                                     
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...                                                        
.UPDATE...                                                                      
A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN FROM THIS EVENINGS CONVECTION AND THIS AREA                
OF PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT.              
CONVECTION TO THE WEST WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT              
AND AM NOT EXPECTING ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. HAVE                   
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED POPS OVERNIGHT. MAY HAVE TO MONITOR THE FOG               
POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT AND FOR STARTERS HAVE THROWN IN 2SM FOR THE                 
WESTERN CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ZONES/GRIDS HAVE ALREADY               
BEEN SENT.                                                                      
LINDENBERG                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI WAS                  
OCCURRING IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT EXISTED OVER             
NORTHEAST KANSAS.  310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE INDICATED 15 TO 20 KNOT              
PARCEL FLOW OVER A MESO-SCALE BAND OF BAROCLINICITY ACROSS EASTERN              
KANSAS.  THE EVOLUTION AND MOVEMENT OF THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION               
WAS THE INITIAL FORECAST CHALLENGE.  OTHER CHALLENGES EXTENDED INTO             
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS PERIOD...AS ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND                      
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE WARRANTED.                                            
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - FRIDAY NIGHT)...                                          
I`M GOING TO MAKE A LAST MINUTE CALL ON TONIGHTS PRECIPITATION                  
CHANCES.  WILL WAIT AND SEE HOW THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IN               
NORTHERN MISSOURI IS TRENDING ON RADAR.                                         
ULTIMATELY NOT A SINGLE COMPUTER MODEL HAS A SNIFF ABOUT WHATS GOING            
ON RIGHT NOW...LET ALONE IN THE FUTURE.  BASED ON RADAR AND MOISTURE            
CHANNEL IMAGERY TRENDS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL NEED TO BE                  
INCREASED FOR TONIGHTS PERIOD.  ALSO HAVE SOME CONCERNS REGARDING               
INSTABILITY TRENDS OVER EASTERN KANSAS/WESTERN MISSOURI.  RUC MIXED             
LAYER CAPE INDICATES VALUES OF AROUND 1500 J/KG WITH NO CAP.                    
FORCING FROM THE NE KANSAS UPPER LOW INTERACTING WITH THIS CAPE                 
COULD YIELD ANOTHER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER THATS NOT INDICATED BY THE               
MODELS.                                                                         
FRIDAYS PRECIP CHANCES ARE TOTALLY DEPENDENT UPON HOW TONIGHTS                  
CONVECTION EVOLVES. THEREFORE HAVE LEFT CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS IN FOR            
FRIDAYS DAY PERIOD.  RAIN CHANCES WILL END FRIDAY NIGHT AS A MUCH               
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS SPREADS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST.                
HAVE DECREASED FRIDAY NIGHTS RAIN CHANCES.                                      
LONG TERM (SATURDAY - WEDNESDAY)...                                             
MADE SOME SERIOUS ADJUSTMENTS WITH SATURDAY - TUESDAYS POPS.  THE               
MAIN SYNOPTIC UPPER LOW IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN               
PLAINS...AND WILL LIKELY STALL OUT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF                      
COLORADO/KANSAS.  THIS POSITIONING WILL BE TOO FAR WEST FOR HIGH                
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN MISSOURI.  AS A MATTER OF FACT...I DECIDED             
TO COMPLETELY TAKE OUT POPS FOR THESE PERIODS...AS THE ENTIRE                   
WEEKEND SHOULD BE DRY FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI             
OZARKS.                                                                         
AS THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS HEADING INTO EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...THE              
SHEAR AXIS IS PROGGED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA.  THIS WOULD ALLOW              
TROPICAL AIR TO SPREAD BACK IN  A RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES IN THE                 
FORECAST WILL BE NEEDED BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY OR NEXT WEEK.             
REGARDING TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH THE CHANGE IN                   
AIRMASS WILL LIMIT READINGS FROM WARMING OUT OF THE LOW TO MID 80S              
FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON TAP               
FOR NEXT WEEK AS THE GULF AIRMASS FILTERS IN.                                   
CRAMER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...MAIN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN                 
EAST OF THE SGF/JLN TERMINAL LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. QUESTION WILL BE              
IF ENOUGH CLEARING CAN TAKE PLACE FOR FOG TO DEVELOP. FOR NOW WILL              
HAVE VISIBILITIES DROP TO AROUND 4SM WITH A TEMPO GROUP DOWN TO                 
2SM BETWEEN 11Z AND 12Z. HAVE CEILINGS HANGING AROUND 5000 FEET                 
WITH A TEMPO GROUP OF 2500 FEET.                                                
LINDENBERG                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
200 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA, WILL               
KEEP WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NEW YORK AND               
PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER                 
WEATHER WILL BE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.              
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...                                         
UPDATE AS OF 730 PM...LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND PROGS SHOW THAT BEST PVA          
WILL BE OVER NEPA AND SE NY OVERNIGHT AS UL LOW DROPS INTO CNY.                 
18Z GFS/NAM ALSO CONCUR WITH THIS IDEA. SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL              
BE GONE SO REALLY NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN ISOLD SPRINKLES/SHOWERS          
FROM AC CLOUD DECKS WITHIN THE UPPER LOW ONCE THIS EARLY EVENING                
CONVECTION PASSES BY. MAY LEAN WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN THE                 
EAST AND SE ZONES GIVEN BETTER FORCING AND TERRAIN FEATURES...BUT               
ELSEWHERE WILL BE TRIMMING BACK PRECIP CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER TO               
P/C. GRIDS WILL BE UPDATED DURG NEXT HOUR WITH FRESH ZFP AROUND                 
9 PM.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...                               
MAIN UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE FA EARLY                       
SATURDAY, BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTN. KEPT CHC              
POPS ACROSS MUCH OF UPSTATE IN THE MORNING, THEN JUST ACROSS THE                
ERN ZONES INTO THE AFTN.                                                        
LOOKS LIKE WE CAN SQUEAK OUT A DECENT DAY ON SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH SOME              
TROFINESS DIGGING SWD MAY BRING INCREASE IN CLDS. KEPT ANY PRECIP               
CHC OUT AT THIS POINT. LOOKS LIKE NEXT CHC AT MORE ORGANIZED SHRA               
MAY COME LATER MONDAY AS FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                          
CURRENT THINKING REFLECTS LITTLE OR NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS MEDIUM-              
RANGE FORECAST UPDATE.                                                          
THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY                
COULD BRING AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION...HENCE A CONTINUED                   
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.                                             
FROM MID-WEEK ONWARD...A BUILDING EASTERN U.S. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE                
IS WELL AGREED UPON BY OUR SUITE OF MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS. THUS...                
MAINLY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE FORESEEN.              
ONE POTENTIAL WILD-CARD THIS PERIOD IS WHERE TROPICAL MOISTURE                  
FROM FAY OR ITS REMNANTS WILL BE DIRECTED TOWARDS. EARLY                        
INDICATIONS ARE THAT MUCH OF IT MAY REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND                     
WEST...FOR THE BETTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. THUS...WE`LL BASICALLY STICK           
WITH A DRY FORECAST...AND INDICATE THE RETURN OF MORE TYPICAL MID               
TO LATE SUMMER TEMPERATURES (WELL INTO THE 80S BY LATER IN THE WEEK).           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                   
LOWER CEILINGS AND FOG EXPECTED TO FORM AT KELM AND KAVP EARLY                  
THIS MORNING...WITH IFR ANTICIPATED AT THESE SITES. IMPROVEMENT                 
BACK TO VFR PROGGED FOR THE 12Z-14Z TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE...VFR                 
SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY.                                                           
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM IN THE                      
VICINITY OF KRME THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS ISOLATED                   
ENOUGH AT THIS TIME RANGE TO PRECLUDE ITS MENTION IN THE TERMINAL               
FORECAST.                                                                       
LIGHT WINDS EARLY TODAY...WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AT CLOSE                
TO 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON.                                                        
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
SATURDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY...VFR...WITH POSSIBLE IFR FOG IN                  
THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT ELM. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BRING CHC               
FOR SHRA/TSRA ON TUESDAY.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
PA...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...JML                                                                  
NEAR TERM...JAB                                                                 
SHORT TERM...JML                                                                
LONG TERM...MLJ/TAC                                                             
AVIATION...MLJ/JAB                                                              
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
1103 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA TODAY.            
A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO             
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY TO            
THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN DISSIPATE TUESDAY. A BACKDOOR                
FRONT WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY AND MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY. A                
TROPICAL SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. PLEASE REFER              
TO FORECASTS AND DISCUSSIONS ISSUED BY THE TROPICAL PREDICTION                  
CENTER.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
TWEAKED CLOUD COVER AND POPS THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT MOSTLY SUNNY                
SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK SEA BREEZE                    
DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON BUT CONVERGENCE ALONG IT WILL BE VERY WEAK              
SO WILL ONLY MENTION ISOLATED CONVECTION GENERALLY EAST OF THE HWY              
17 CORRIDOR. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NW THIS              
AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THIS BOUNDARY                  
OVER SOUTHERN VA AND NORTH CENTRAL NC. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS OVER               
THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH SHRA/TS POSSIBLE MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON                   
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...                                  
 WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SE TONIGHT. KEPT CHANCE POPS                  
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES AND LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE               
REMAINDER. BROADBRUSHED 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON                    
SATURDAY WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL                 
MOVE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...BECOMING STATIONARY JUST              
LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE ACROSS THE GULF STATES AND SOUTH                          
GEORGIA...JUST LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE.                                           
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                         
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY              
NIGHT SO I WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST. BY TUESDAY THE FRONT WILL                  
DISSIPATE AND THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN. DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE               
WITH A RETURN TO MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION. A BACKDOOR                
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TUESDAY NIGHT AND ENTER THE STATE ON                   
WEDNESDAY. LEFT POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE. BIG QUESTION MARK FOR THE END            
OF THE WEEK WITH A TROPICAL SYSTEM POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE AREA.                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                       
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS             
THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA                     
OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR               
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY. AFTER THE              
PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO MAINLY VFR                    
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE.              
PATCHY DENSE FOG A POSSIBILITY SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS             
THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL SATURDAY MORNING. ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS             
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY.                                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
WEAK GRADIENT CURRENTLY OVER WATERS WITH WEAK LOW WELL OFF THE COAST            
AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE INLAND. FLOW IS CURRENTLY N/NE 5-10 KT AND IS            
EXPECTED TO BECOME SE 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON. 2-3 FT 8-10 SECOND                  
PERIOD SWELL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. ONLY                 
CHANE TO CURRENT FORECAST WAS TWEAK WIND DIRECTIONS AND LIMIT                   
INCREASE IN WINDS THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 KT BASED ON LATEST NAM/RUC               
MODELS.                                                                         
WEAK LOW PRES OFF THE SC COAST WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLC              
TODAY. WINDS BACKING TO THE SE/E OVR THE MARINE AREA BUT SPEEDS                 
GENERALLY LIGHT AT 12 KTS OR LESS.                                              
WINDS SHIFTING BACK SW/W AHEAD WEAK SFC BNDRY TNGT THEN BECOMING                
MORE W/NW AS BNDRY SLIPS THRU MARINE AREA ON SAT. AGAIN WIND SPEEDS             
MAINLY LIGHT THRUOUT GIVEN THE WEAK PGRAD AND CAA.                              
PSBLY A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE/E WINDS SETTING UP BY LATE IN THE                
WEEKND THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING THRU THE               
BAHAMAS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR INCOMING SWELL OUT AHEAD OF THIS                  
SYSTEM. LATEST HI RES WNA HOLDS OFF BRINGING IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY            
THRESHOLD SEAS (6 FT) UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WED BUT MAY BE             
TOO SLOW IF SYSTEM STRENGTHENS SIGNIFICANTLY.                                   
&&                                                                              
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...HSA                                                                  
NEAR TERM...JW                                                                  
SHORT TERM...HSA                                                                
LONG TERM...HSA                                                                 
AVIATION...JME                                                                  
MARINE...JME                                                                    
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH                                           
755 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A DISTURBANCE JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL DROP SOUTH                           
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. BEHIND THE                          
SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.                   
MONDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA.                      
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                                
CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER LAKE ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON.                     
CONVECTION HAS BROKEN OUT MOSTLY NORTH OF LAKE ERIE AND IN EASTERN              
LOWER MICHIGAN. MAIN CONCERN IS WILL THE CONVECTION SURVIVE CROSSING            
LAKE ERIE. RUC AND NAM SHOW MOST UNSTABLE AIR NORTH OF THE AREA                 
THIS AFTERNOON AND AS THE AREA SHIFTS SOUTH THE INSTABILITY SHOULD              
DECREASE WITH DIURNAL TENDENCIES. HOWEVER MODELS ALSO SHOW AM                   
UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. BELIEVE THIS                    
FORCING WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION TO EITHER SURVIVE               
OR JUMP THE LAKE THIS EVENING. SO FOR TONIGHT WILL GO WITH CHC                  
POPS NORTHEAST AND SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE.                                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...                            
SATURDAY...THE BACK SIDE OF TONIGHTS UPPER FORCING MOVES OUT OF                 
THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS NOSING IN FROM THE                  
WEST. AND SHOULD PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE. AIRMASS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY                 
AND MORE STABLE WITH THE UPPER LOW HAVING WEAKENED TO AN OPEN WAVE              
AND PULLED EAST. THUS EXPECT SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH                     
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.                      
SUNDAY MODELS SHOW A ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA                 
WITH AT LEAST SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. GFS KEEPS MOST                  
UNSTABLE AIR NORTH OF THE AREA HOWEVER AND WITH A BROAD UPPER TROF              
AXIS EAST OF THE AREA AND INCREASING HEIGHTS AND HIGH PRESSURE AT               
THE SURFACE...WILL FOR NOW CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. DID                    
HOWEVER THROW IN A 20% POP FOR THE GRAPHICS. THROUGH THE PERIOD                 
EXPECT A SLOW WARMING TREND AS THE AIRMASS RECOVERS WARM ADVECTION              
TAKING PLACE FROM THE NORTHWEST OUT OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE                 
UPPER PLAINS AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. SUNDAY NIGHT A WEAK COLD                
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT                 
CHANCE IN GRAPHICS FOR THE FAR NORTHEAST. ELSEWHERE WILL GO DRY.                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                           
PATTERN LOOKS RATHER TRANQUIL OVER THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THE                  
FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL INITIALLY ON MONDAY GIVES WAY TO             
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING THROUGH CENTRAL MI TO NEW YORK                
STATE LOOKS TO DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. AT THIS               
TIME ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS SHOWN IN GRIDS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS             
INTO THE AREA FOR MIDWEEK KEEPING DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS FOR             
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH                
MUCH OF THE PERIOD...REMAINED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS DURING THE                
PERIOD. ASIDE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUES NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL             
BOUNDARY IN THE AREA...ONLY ISSUE WITH TEMPS WILL BE MINS IN THE                
EXTENDED WITH POSSIBLE RADIATING CONDITIONS ALLOWING RURAL LOCATIONS            
TO BE COOLER THAN FORECAST ESP FOR WED NIGHT.                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                   
THE FEW SHOWERS THAT WERE OVER LERI AT MID AFTERNOON DISSIPATED                 
EARLY THIS EVENING. DON`T EXPECT ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS  TO                  
REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. AREAS MVFR FOG LIKELY LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY              
SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOCAL OR ISOLATED AREA OF IFR CONDITIONS.                 
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND GOOD VFR CONDITION WILL                 
PREVAIL.                                                                        
OUTLOOK...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS A WEAKENING FRONT                  
APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN AGAIN MONDAY                 
NIGHT OR TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER WEAK FRONT DROPPING INTO THE AREA.                
HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD                   
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
N TO NW FLOW MAY BE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS AT TIMES TONIGHT            
AND SATURDAY BUT THINK 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES SHOULD              
BE THE TOP END.  A SW FLOW AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT DUE OVER THE              
LAKE ABOUT MONDAY NIGHT MAY PICK UP TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS SOMETIME LATER            
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND PRODUCE 23 TO 5 FOOT WAVES BUT THE WINDS                 
DIRECTIONS SHOULD KEEP THESE HIGHER WAVES IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS.               
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD VEER THE SW WINDS TO A             
N THEN NE TO E DIRECTION TUE INTO WED.                                          
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
PA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...TK                                                                   
NEAR TERM...TK                                                                  
SHORT TERM...TK                                                                 
LONG TERM...ABE                                                                 
AVIATION...RANDEL                                                               
MARINE...ADAMS                                                                  
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH                                           
235 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...A DISTURBANCE JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL DROP SOUTH               
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. BEHIND THE                          
SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.                   
MONDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA.                      
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER LAKE ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON.                     
CONVECTION HAS BROKEN OUT MOSTLY NORTH OF LAKE ERIE AND IN EASTERN              
LOWER MICHIGAN. MAIN CONCERN IS WILL THE CONVECTION SURVIVE CROSSING            
LAKE ERIE. RUC AND NAM SHOW MOST UNSTABLE AIR NORTH OF THE AREA                 
THIS AFTERNOON AND AS THE AREA SHIFTS SOUTH THE INSTABILITY SHOULD              
DECREASE WITH DIURNAL TENDENCIES. HOWEVER MODELS ALSO SHOW AM                   
UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. BELIEVE THIS                    
FORCING WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION TO EITHER SURVIVE               
OR JUMP THE LAKE THIS EVENING. SO FOR TONIGHT WILL GO WITH CHC                  
POPS NORTHEAST AND SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE.                                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...                                  
SATURDAY...THE BACK SIDE OF TONIGHTS UPPER FORCING MOVES OUT OF                 
THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS NOSING IN FROM THE                  
WEST. AND SHOULD PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE. AIRMASS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY                 
AND MORE STABLE WITH THE UPPER LOW HAVING WEAKENED TO AN OPEN WAVE              
AND PULLED EAST. THUS EXPECT SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH                     
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.                      
SUNDAY MODELS SHOW A ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA                 
WITH AT LEAST SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. GFS KEEPS MOST                  
UNSTABLE AIR NORTH OF THE AREA HOWEVER AND WITH A BROAD UPPER TROF              
AXIS EAST OF THE AREA AND INCREASING HEIGHTS AND HIGH PRESSURE AT               
THE SURFACE...WILL FOR NOW CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. DID                    
HOWEVER THROW IN A 20% POP FOR THE GRAPHICS. THROUGH THE PERIOD                 
EXPECT A SLOW WARMING TREND AS THE AIRMASS RECOVERS WARM ADVECTION              
TAKING PLACE FROM THE NORTHWEST OUT OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE                 
UPPER PLAINS AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. SUNDAY NIGHT A WEAK COLD                
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT                 
CHANCE IN GRAPHICS FOR THE FAR NORTHEAST. ELSEWHERE WILL GO DRY.                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                           
PATTERN LOOKS RATHER TRANQUIL OVER THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THE                  
FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL INITIALLY ON MONDAY GIVES WAY TO             
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING THROUGH CENTRAL MI TO NEW YORK                
STATE LOOKS TO DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. AT THIS               
TIME ONLY HAVE SLGHT CHC POPS SHOWN IN GRIDS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS              
INTO THE AREA FOR MIDWEEK KEEPING DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS FOR             
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH                
MUCH OF THE PERIOD...REMAINED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS DURING THE                
PERIOD. ASIDE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUES NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL             
BOUNDARY IN THE AREA...ONLY ISSUE WITH TEMPS WILL BE MINS IN THE                
EXTENDED WITH POSSIBLE RADIATING CONDITIONS ALLOWING RURAL LOCATIONS            
TO BE COOLER THAN FORECAST ESP FOR WED NIGHT.                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                     
FOG WILL BURN OFF OVER NEXT HOUR OR TWO. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO              
DEVELOP MAINLY EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST                 
ACROSS THE REGION. SOME WIDELY SCATTERED STUFF POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE               
IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY VFR                       
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING.                                     
OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. NEXT              
FRONT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY FOR THE                 
NEXT POSSIBLE THREAT OF PRECIP.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
N TO NW FLOW MAY BE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS AT TIMES TONIGHT            
AND SATURDAY BUT THINK 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES SHOULD              
BE THE TOP END.  A SW FLOW AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT DUE OVER THE              
LAKE ABOUT MONDAY NIGHT MAY PICK UP TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS SOMETIME LATER            
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND PRODUCE 23 TO 5 FOOT WAVES BUT THE WINDS                 
DIRECTIONS SHOULD KEEP THESE HIGHER WAVES IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS.               
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD VEER THE SW WINDS TO A             
N THEN NE TO E DIRECTION TUE INTO WED.                                          
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
PA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...TK                                                                   
NEAR TERM...TK                                                                  
SHORT TERM...TK                                                                 
LONG TERM...ABE                                                                 
AVIATION...ABE                                                                  
MARINE...ADAMS                                                                  
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NEAR TERM                                  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                       
1133 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION...CONTAINED WITHIN AN                      
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN                 
U.S...WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION                  
TODAY. A RELATIVELY SHARP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL LINGER OVER CENTRAL                
PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND              
ALOFT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MID-WEEK BRINGING A                  
SEVERAL DAY PERIOD OF WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER.                              
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
AT 15Z...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED AN ILL DEFINED SFC TROUGH EXTENDING                
FROM NEAR THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST...WEST ACROSS THE MID                  
SUSQ VALLEY TO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS OF SWRN PENN. HIGHER DEWPOINTS              
IN THE LOWER 60S WILL BE FOUND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH MID TO              
UPPER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NRN PENN THIS AFTERNOON.                   
A RATHER EXTENSIVE MID CLOUD DECK (FORMED FROM WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT             
ALONG THE 305-310K THETA SFCS) WILL GRADUALLY DISSOLVE/SLIDE EAST               
THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR BETTER SFC HEATING AND MIXED LAYER                
CAPES TO RAMP UP TO 700-1000 J/KG. IN MOST LOCATIONS...THIS WILL                
BE SLIGHTLY LESS CAPE THAN THAT WHICH AIDED IN THE PEA TO 1/2 INCH              
HAIL PRODUCING PULSE STORMS WE HAD THURSDAY AFTN/EARLY EVENING.                 
THE FEW EXCEPTIONS COULD BE NEAR SE BOUNDARY OF THE LAKE ERIE                   
BREEZE ACROSS WARREN CTY (WHERE THE BEST 700-500 HPA COLD ADVECTION             
WILL BE OCCURRING)...AND ALSO OVER SCHUYLKILL COUNTY...SW INTO THE              
LWR SUSQ VALLEY (WHICH WILL FEEL THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF BEING                  
CLOSER TO...THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET MAX AND                
THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC FRONT...AND WITHIN THE AREA OF GREATER LLVL              
MOISTURE).                                                                      
SPC DAY 1 SLGT RISK OUTLOOK JUST CLIPS THE FAR ERN PORTION OF THE               
LWR SUSQ VLY...WHICH IS LOCATED CLOSEST TO THE ENT REGION OF THE                
AFOREMENTIONED JET MAX.                                                         
PARCEL EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS FROM KIPT...SOUTH TO KMDT NOSE ONLY                   
ABOUT 3KFT ABOVE THE -20C LEVEL...SO AGAIN I EXPECT THE THREAT FOR              
1/2 - 3/4 INCH HAIL TO BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY. WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL            
WINDS WILL MAKE FOR A MINIMAL WIND GUST THREAT...BUT ANY STRONG                 
ELEVATED REFLECTIVITY CORES COULD DROP QUICKLY TO THE SFC THROUGH               
THE UPDRAFTS AND PRODUCE A BRIEF MICROBURST GUST TO 40 OR 50 MPH.               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...                        
ANY LINGERING SHRA/TSRA SHOULD WEAKEN AND SLIDE EWD TWD THE MID-                
ATLC COAST OVERNIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES EWD THRU                      
INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. HELD ONTO SOME SLGT CHC POPS ACROSS THE FAR               
ERN ZONES FOR LATE TNT...BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO                     
DRY/CLEAR OUT SOME AFT MIDNIGHT. AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP               
AGAIN - ESP WHERE IT RAINS TDY.                                                 
HAVE ADDED IN SOME SLGT CHC POPS FOR SAT AS THE UPPER TROF AXIS                 
SWINGS EAST THROUGH THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS SHOW LITTLE TO              
NO PCPN ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE...FEEL SOME SMALL POPS ARE                    
WARRANTED GIVEN THE THREAT FOR INSTABILITY SHRA/TSRA.                           
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                 
GRADUAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT...SETTING THE              
STAGE FOR A MAINLY SUNNY...WARM AND DRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A                  
RATHER LARGE SFC HIGH SLIDES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND                    
REACHES THE VIRGINIA COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.                                    
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL 500                
HPA HEIGHTS AND 850 HPA TEMPS WILL YIELD MAX TEMPS 2 TO 4 DEG IN                
MOST AREAS...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WITHIN A FEW DEG EITHER SIDE OF                
NORMAL. LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE MID AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY SHOULD               
SEE MAX TEMPS IN 85 TO 90F RANGE FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY                   
BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE AS PWATS RISE TO 1-2 ST DEVIATIONS ABOVE                 
NORMAL. ELSEWHERE...HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE U70S ACROSS THE              
NRN AND WRN MTNS...TO THE L80S ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS.                         
GEFS SHOWS A WEAK SFC FRONT SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION                     
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHRA/TSRA BOTH                  
AFTERNOONS...BEFORE THE BOUNDARY WASHES OUT ACROSS THE MID                      
ATLANTIC REGION. THE ILL DEFINED FRONT WILL DRIFT BACK TO THE                   
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT/OR MEANDER ACROSS OUR REGION LATER IN THE                 
WEEK. WILL KEEP MENTION OF SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING                 
SHOWERS AND TSRA IN THE FCST FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.                          
MREF PLUMES ARE BASICALLY DRY FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BEFORE                    
RAMPING UP DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. MEAN...MREF TOTAL                
QPF FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK IS AROUND 1.5 INCHES FOR                   
MANY LOCATIONS...WHICH TAKES INTO ACCOUNT SEVERAL ROUNDS OF                     
CONVECTION.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                       
LATEST RUC13 RH SUGGESTS EARLY LOW CLDS/FOG SHOULD LIFT BY ARND                 
14Z...THEN SCT DIURNAL SHWRS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE               
AFTN AS UPPER TROF SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE REGION. BRIEF VSBY/CIG                
REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE FROM THESE STORMS...MAINLY EASTERN/CENTRAL PA.              
HOWEVER...VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE.                    
HIGH PRES IS FCST TO MOVE INTO PA THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT                   
WEEK...PROVIDING GENERALLY GOOD FLYING CONDS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND               
A LOW CHC OF PRECIP. A DYING COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE A FEW LATE                
DAY TSTMS OVER NORTHERN PA SUN/MON. THAT BOUNDARY COULD DRIFT                   
FURTHER SOUTH BY TUES...BRINGING THE CHC OF AFTN TSTMS TO SOUTHERN              
PA.                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL                                                            
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT                                                             
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL                                                  
LONG TERM...LAMBERT                                                             
AVIATION...FITZGERALD                                                           
</pre> pa                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                       
207 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CANADA TO THE GREAT                
LAKES REGION WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND BECOME                      
LOCATED ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK STATE EARLY SATURDAY.                  
THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND              
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. MOST OF THE WEEKEND SEEMS                
TO BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES IN FROM THE MIDWEST. IT COULD                 
GET HOT FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFF              
THE EAST COAST AND LOW PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE GREAT PLAINS.                  
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...                                         
A FEW MORE HOURS OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST...THEN ISOLATED                     
SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY NW...AS NEW ACTIVITY DRIFTS                 
SE. SOME PATCHY FOG. FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THU...WITH                       
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. PERHAPS LESS ACTIVE...EXCEPT FOR THE SE.                
SEE BELOW FOR MORE DETAIL.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...                        
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS THINKING HERE. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL               
BECOME ISOLATED AFTER 06Z. PATCHY FOG LIKELY ONCE AGAIN EARLY                   
FRIDAY MORNING UNDER PARTIAL CLEARING...SIMILAR LLVL                            
MOISTURE...AND NEAR CALM SFC WIND.                                              
FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE A NEAR REPEAT OF TODAY WITH VERY SIMILAR AMBIENT              
CONDITIONS...BEGINNING WITH SOME THICK LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND                    
LIKELY SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG BEFORE 14Z. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE                
CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA...PERHAPS OVER WRN NY. THIS WILL HELP A                
FEW STORMS PRODUCE SOME LARGER HAIL...AND A JET STREAK THAT SHOULD              
BE OFF TO OUR SOUTH MAY ENHANCE THE DEEP- LAYER SHEAR. SO ISOLATED              
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN AND SPC HAS US INCLUDED IN THEIR               
SEE TEXT AREA FOR LCLY SVR PULSE STORMS. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN                  
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                 
UPPER TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY                     
SATURDAY WITH THE STEEPEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MIXED LAYER                
CAPE OF UP TO SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG PUSHING EAST OF THE SUSQ VALLEY              
BY 00Z SUNDAY. WENT WITH CHC POPS FOR AFTERNOON SHRA...WITH                     
ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MIDDLE SUSQ VALLEY AND NORTH                  
CENTRAL MTNS. 700 HPA TEMPS IN THAT AREA WILL DIP TO SLIGHTLY                   
BELOW ZERO BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND 00Z SUNDAY.                                      
GRADUAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT...SETTING                  
THE STAGE FOR A MAINLY SUNNY...WARM AND DRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A              
RATHER LARGE SFC HIGH SLIDES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND                    
REACHES THE VIRGINIA COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.                                    
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL 500                
HPA HEIGHTS AND 850 HPA TEMPS WILL YIELD MAX TEMPS 2 TO 4 DEG IN                
MOST AREAS...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WITHIN A FEW DEG EITHER SIDE OF                
NORMAL. LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE MID AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY SHOULD               
SEE MAX TEMPS IN 85 TO 90F RANGE FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY                   
BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE AS PWATS RISE TO 1-2 ST DEVIATIONS ABOVE                 
NORMAL. ELSEWHERE...HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE U70S ACROSS THE              
NRN AND WRN MTNS...TO THE L80S ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS.                         
GEFS SHOWS A WEAK SFC FRONT SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION                     
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHRA/TSRA BOTH                  
AFTERNOONS...BEFORE THE BOUNDARY WASHES OUT ACROSS THE MID                      
ATLANTIC REGION. THE ILL DEFINED FRONT WILL DRIFT BACK TO THE                   
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT/OR MEANDER ACROSS OUR REGION LATER IN THE                 
WEEK. WILL KEEP MENTION OF SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING                 
SHOWERS AND TSRA IN THE FCST FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.                          
MREF PLUMES ARE BASICALLY DRY FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BEFORE                    
RAMPING UP DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. MEAN...MREF TOTAL                
QPF FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK IS AROUND 1.5 INCHES FOR                   
MANY LOCATIONS...WHICH TAKES INTO ACCOUNT SEVERAL ROUNDS OF                     
CONVECTION.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                       
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER               
S ONTARIO. ASSOCIATED DIURNAL SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY                    
DISSIPATED FOR THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...BAND OF MID LVL CLOUDINESS                  
AHEAD OF UPPER LOW WILL BE CRITICAL IN DETERMINING IF DENSE FOG                 
FORMS. LATEST RUC13 RH DATA SUGGESTS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE              
FROM JST NE TO IPT WILL REMAIN MCLDY...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS UP                 
AND FOG TO A MINIMUM. MEANWHILE...NORTHWEST PA /BFD/ AND SOUTHEAST              
PA /MDT/ APPEAR LIKELY TO REMAIN MCLEAR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL                    
HRS...RESULTING IN THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY DENSE RADIATION FOG.              
HAVE THUS...GONE A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN MOS AT THESE                       
LOCATIONS THIS AM.                                                              
ANY FOG SHOULD LIFT BY ARND 14Z...THEN SCT DIURNAL SHWRS/TSTMS                  
EXPECTED TO ERUPT DURING THE AFTN AS UPPER TROF SHIFTS EAST ACROSS              
THE REGION. BRIEF VSBY/CIG REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE FROM THESE                       
STORMS...MAINLY EASTERN/CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER...VFR CONDS LIGHT                   
WINDS EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE.                                                  
HIGH PRES IS FCST TO MOVE INTO PA THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT                   
WEEK...PROVIDING GENERALLY GOOD FLYING CONDS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND               
A LOW CHC OF PRECIP. A DYING COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE A FEW LATE                
DAY TSTMS OVER NORTHERN PA SUN/MON. THAT BOUNDARY COULD DRIFT                   
FURTHER SOUTH BY TUES...BRINGING THE CHC OF AFTN TSTMS TO SOUTHERN              
PA.                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/LAMBERT                                                       
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT/MARTIN/RXR                                           
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR                                                             
LONG TERM...LAMBERT                                                             
AVIATION...FITZGERALD                                                           
</pre> pa                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
249 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH LATE                
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY...AND            
REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.                           
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL SHARPEN A LITTLE TODAY...WITH AN           
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE...NOW OVER MO...EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO THE                   
MOUNTAINS LATER IN THE DAY. AN ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT WILL BECOME A               
LITTLE MORE DEFINED AS WELL. GOOD CONVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE             
NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE NAM POOLS LLVL                
DEWPOINTS IN THIS AREA AND DEVELOPS QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE PCPN              
AS A RESULT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN NC PIEDMONT. THE GFS ISN/T TOO            
DISSIMILAR...THOUGH THE FEATURES ARE WEAKER AND THE TIMING SLOWER.              
THE NAM LOOKS LIKE A REASONABLE SOLUTION AT THIS POINT...AND I/LL               
CARRY MY HIGHEST POPS...ALBEIT ONLY AROUND 40 PERCENT...OVER THE                
I-77 CORRIDOR. IF THE NAM TURNED OUT TO BE A PERFECT PROG...THEN                
LIKELY POPS WOULD BE NEEDED IN THIS AREA. HOWEVER...OWING TO THE                
WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING...I/M NOT CONFIDENT ENUF TO GO WITH                 
MORE COVERAGE THAN SCT. GFS AND NAM MIX OUT DEWPOINTS OVER THE                  
UPSTATE AND NC MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. I THINK WE WILL SEE SOME               
ACTIVITY IN BOTH LOCATIONS...BUT IT WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE.            
THERE WILL BE A SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BULK SHEAR            
WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 25 KTS AND FREEZING LEVELS WILL REMAIN            
HIGH. TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WON/T BE UNUSUALLY LARGE...SO THE               
THREAT WILL BE FOR ISOLATED AREAS OF DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL                     
GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH IN DIAMETER IN PULSE STORMS AND A FEW                   
MULTICELL CLUSTERS.                                                             
ACTIVITY MAY LINGER UNTIL MIDNIGHT IN THE AXIS OF LLVL CONVERGENCE.             
THEREAFTER THE SFC FRONT SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE                           
REGION...BRINGING IN DRIER AIR.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...                         
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...UPR LVL ERN CONUS TROF WILL PROGRESS ACRS THE             
APPALACHIAN MTNS SATURDAY AFTN...WITH AN ASSOC SFC TROF. MODEL                  
SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY LMTD MOISTURE WITH THE TROF PASSAGE. LATEST             
GUIDANCE STILL SEEMS TO JUSTIFY ONLY A SLGT CHC POP FOR THE                     
AFTN...SO ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS. TEMPS LOOK TO BE A DEG OR TWO BLO             
NORMAL (70S TO LWR 80S MTNS AND MID TO UPR 80S PIEDMONT).                       
SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...SFC HI PRES BLD IN FROM THE                  
NW...KEEPING THINGS DRY AND SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS. MOISTURE AND             
LOW LVL CONVERGENCE LOOK TO STAY S OF THE CWFA THRU LATE SUNDAY.                
ALTHOUGH THE 00Z/15 GFS TRIES TO GENERATE SOME QPF ALONG A WK                   
CONVERGENCE ZONE IN THE UPR SAVANNAH VLY...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENUF TO            
KEEP IT OUT OF THE FCST.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                         
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...THE LATEST GUIDANCE ALL SEEM TO BE COMING IN              
WITH A STRONGER UPR RIDGE ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS...HELPING TO                   
PREVENT A TROPICAL FEATURE FROM RECURVING E OF FL. BOTH THE 12Z/14              
ECMWF AND 00Z/15 GFS HAVE THE SYSTEM TURN TWD THE W...CROSSING THE              
FL PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. IF THIS VERIFIES...OUR                
AREA MAY BE QUITE DRY THRU THURSDAY UNDER DEEP SUBSIDENCE. SINCE                
BASICALLY ALL THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS DRIER THAN INHERITED GRIDS...I             
BLENDED IN THE 00Z/15 MEX FOR POPS AND TEMPS...RESULTING IN NOTHING             
HIER THAN SLGT CHC POP FROM MONDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY. SINCE THE                 
EXTENDED FCST IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON TRENDS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED               
TROPICAL SYSTEM...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW.                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                       
LINGERING SHOWERS JUST SOUTH OF KCLT SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE LONG               
AND WILL HAVE NO EFFECT ON THE AIRFIELD. MOS GUIDANCE IMPLIES THAT              
MVFR FOG WILL FORM AT MOST SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.                
THE LLVL FLOW IS VERY LIGHT...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT STRATUS                        
POTENTIAL. ALSO...THE RUC CIG HEIGHTS DON/T SHOW ANY LOW CLOUDS                 
OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND IT TYPICALLY OVERDOES STRATUS.               
I HAVE FOG DEVELOPING AT ALL AIRFIELDS...WITH KAVL GOING DOWN FOR               
SEVERAL HOURS IN LIFR FOG AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SKIES MOSTLY               
CLEAR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.                                                    
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT...AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST              
AFTER SUNRISE. LATE IN THE DAY A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS              
THE REGION...TURNING THE WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHEAST DURING THE            
EARLY EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG            
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH LIMITED COVERAGE I ONLY INCLUDED A            
CB GROUP IN THE TAFS ATTM. CHANCES WL BE BEST OVER TOWARD KCLT WHERE            
THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE FOUND LATER IN THE DAY.                        
OUTLOOK...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT SATURDAY              
AND SUNDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE                 
EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND SOME MORNING RESTRICTS IN FOG ARE             
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT FOG PRONE AIRFIELDS.                                   
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...ARK                                                                  
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY                                                              
SHORT TERM...ARK                                                                
LONG TERM...ARK                                                                 
AVIATION...MCAVOY                                                               
</pre> sc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
154 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH LATE             
FRIDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY BUT               
WILL BE PUSHED OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER                 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...                                                   
SCT CONVECTION LINGERING OVER E CWA SO BUMPED UP POPS THRU 2 AM...              
THEN EXPECT CONVECTION TO DIMINISH AS WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES E AND                
WITH CONTINUED COOLING. BEST CHANCE OF FOG IS ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN               
VALLEYS AND AREAS THAT GOT RAIN THIS AFTN-EVE BUT CLOUDS WILL LINGER            
OVER E CWA LONGER TONIGHT. COMPROMISED WITH MENTION OF PATCHY FOG               
ACROSS CWA. ALSO TWEAKED HOURLY TEMP/DP/RH THIS UPDATE.                         
ADDITIONAL H5 SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST             
FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO PRODUCE ISOLATED CONVECTION...WITH SCATTERED                
COVERAGE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN. NORHTWESTERLY 850 MB FLOW SHOULD                  
CREATE MORE CONVERGENCE ALONG A LEE TROUGH OUT INTO THE PIEDMONT FOR            
FRIDAY AFTN AS WELL. 850 MB TEMPS LOOK TO REBOUND A COUPLE OF                   
DEGREES FRIDAY AFTN OVER TODAY TO YIELD WARMER MAX TEMPS.                       
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...                                   
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...SHORT RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT THE AXIS OF               
A H5 L/W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY                  
EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE MOISTURE CONTENT OF               
THE LOW AND MID LEVELS IS FAIRLY LOW. IN ADDITION...AN INVERSION                
BETWEEN H5-H6 MAY KEEP THE SFC BASED PARCELS CAPPED. HOWEVER...THE              
PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL TROF MAY RESULT IN A ELONGATED LEE TROF                
ALONG AND EAST OF I-85 SAT AFTERNOON. I WILL PAINT THE REGION EAST              
OF THE MTNS WITH A AFTERNOON SCHC OF SHRA AND TSRA. USING A BLEND OF            
MOS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE L80S IN THE MTN VALLEYS TO             
U80S EAST.                                                                      
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...TROF AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST                 
RESULTING IN DRY NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW               
THE PW DROPPING TO .8 INCHES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A STRONG MID                 
LEVEL INVERSION. I WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY SENSIBLE WEATHER WITH             
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN                   
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.                                                          
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...USING A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF...DEEPER                
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE WILL SLOW              
DRIFT NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY...POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL                
FEATURE. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA             
AND TSRA WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOS GUIDANCE AND              
HPC VALUES SUPPORT TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL.                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                        
AS OF 2 PM THURSDAY...THE PERIOD OF 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF            
THE DAY FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE RATHER TYPICAL FOR SUMMERTIME.                     
AGAIN...THE HPC PREFERRED MODEL WAS THE ECMWF. AS FOR THE LOCAL                 
FORECAST AREA...A BLEND OF HPC GUIDANCE AND GMOS WERE USED TO                   
ACHIEVE A DECENT ENOUGH BLEND TO MATCH THE OVERALL PICTURE OF THE               
EXTENDED RANGE.                                                                 
A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST AND             
STALL ACROSS THE EASTERN PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH                     
THURSDAY. THIS FRONT COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE SHOULD BE                
ENOUGH TO SPARK A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA            
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. DAYTIME MAXIMUMS AND MINIMUMS SHOULD CONTINUE            
TO BE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FRIDAYS            
FORECAST WAS DIFFICULT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THE TROPICAL                     
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY LATE NEXT WEEK.            
THE IMPACT OF THIS STORM ON THE CWA IS STILL VERY UNCLEAR...BUT                 
SHOULD PROVE TO BE AN INTERESTING FEATURE TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT                
SEVERAL DAYS.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                       
LINGERING SHOWERS JUST SOUTH OF KCLT SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE LONG               
AND WILL HAVE NO AFFECT ON THE AIRFIELD. MOS GUIDANCE IMPLIES THAT              
MVFR FOG WILL FORM AT MOST SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE            
LLVL FLOW IS VERY LIGHT...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT STRATUS POTENTIAL.                 
ALSO...THE RUC CIG HEIGHTS DON/T SHOW ANY LOW CLOUDS OVER THE REGION            
THIS MORNING...AND IT TYPICALLY OVERDOES STRATUS. I HAVE FOG                    
DEVELOPING AT ALL AIRFIELDS...WITH KAVL GOING DOWN FOR SEVERAL HOURS            
IN LIFR FOG AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THE REST              
OF THE NIGHT.                                                                   
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT...AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST              
AFTER SUNRISE. LATE IN THE DAY A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS              
THE REGION...TURNING THE WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHEAST DURING THE            
EARLY EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG            
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH LIMITED COVERAGE I ONLY INCLUDED A            
CB GROUP IN THE TAFS ATTM. CHANCES WL BE BEST OVER TOWARD KCLT WHERE            
THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE FOUND LATER IN THE DAY.                        
OUTLOOK...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT SATURDAY              
AND SUNDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE                 
EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND SOME MORNING RESTRICTS IN FOG ARE             
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT FOG PRONE AIRFIELDS.                                   
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...                                                                     
NEAR TERM...HG/RB                                                               
SHORT TERM...NED                                                                
LONG TERM...                                                                    
AVIATION...MCAVOY                                                               
</pre> sc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX                                         
843 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES INDICATE CONVECTION HAS                
DIMINISHED ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING. KBRO 88D ESTIMATED SEVERAL              
INCHES OF RAINFALL FELL ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF HIDALGO                    
COUNTY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. RUC80 500MB HEIGHT                      
ANALYSIS INDICATED A WEAK LOW ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. IN ADDITION...MSAS            
SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS PORTIONS              
OF SOUTH TX. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES CONTINUES TO                 
PROVIDE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TX AND          
THE HILL COUNTRY EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.              
THIS CONVECTION SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL                   
HEATING. WILL LOWER POPS TONIGHT AND DECREASE CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY              
AS A RESULT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN ABOVE TWO INCHES                  
ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY SO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND              
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE SUN AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG THE                        
SEABREEZE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THIS EVENING AFTER ANOTHER               
ROUND OF SEA BREEZE CONVECTION TODAY. MOISTURE REMAINS ELEVATED AND             
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE                
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY START IN COASTAL AREAS AND MOVE SOUTH AND WEST             
TOWARD THE REGIONAL AIRPORTS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. HARLINGEN AND              
MCALLEN WILL TEND TO BE MORE IN THE PATH OF THIS ACTIVITY...WHILE               
THE CONVECTION MAY BYPASS BROWNSVILLE BEFORE BECOMING MUCH OF A                 
THREAT. DEEP THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH PLENTY OF RAIN AND                 
LIGHTNING...AND MAYBE SOME SMALL EMBEDDED HAIL. GUST SURFACE WINDS              
TO 40 OR 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE STORMS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS               
HAVE NOT QUITE REACHED SEVERE STRENGTH...HOWEVER. MVFR CONDITIONS               
WILL OCCUR NEAR ANY STORMS...WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY                
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...AT 6 PM BUOY 020 REPORTED LIGHT EAST WINDS AND SEAS AT 3              
TO 4 FEET WITH A 6 SECOND PERIOD. LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS               
WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST AS HIGH             
PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. SHOWERS AND                
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MARINE AREAS             
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS MAY BE HIGHER IN OR             
NEAR ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 145 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2008/                         
BRO SOUNDING THIS MORNING SHOWED A PRECIP WATER OF 2.05 AND A                   
K-INDEX OF 17. DEEP MOISTURE COULD GIVE DEEP SOUTH TEXAS A GOOD                 
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYTIME                
HOURS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT                 
WILL DOMINATE THE AREA BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK CAUSING A                  
RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS TO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FROM THE                  
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL BE              
LIGHT TO MODERATE FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT                 
WEEK. BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOWED ABOVE 50 PERCENT                
ALL THE WAY UP TO 500 MB THROUGH SUNDAY THEN DRYING OUT SOME BY                 
SUNDAY NIGHT.                                                                   
MARINE...AT NOON BUOY 20 REPORTED SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 8 KNOTS              
WITH GUSTS TO 10 KNOTS AND SEAS AT 3 FEET WITH A 6 SECOND PERIOD.               
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH SEAS IN THE 2 TO 4 FEET              
RANGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS THROUGH MONDAY AS A HIGH            
PRESSURE RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THERE IS A CHANCE              
FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE            
MARINE AREAS AT TIMES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS AND                
SEAS MAY BE HIGHER IN OR NEAR ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.                     
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE TO MODERATE AND GUSTY                   
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE BEING              
REPORTED AT THE REGIONAL AIRPORTS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND            
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA AT TIMES               
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY                      
TEMPORARILY REDUCE CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES TO MVFR CONDITIONS.             
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS             
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGIONAL AIRPORTS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.            
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  92  79  91 /  10  30  10  20                           
BROWNSVILLE          79  94  78  92 /  10  30  10  20                           
HARLINGEN            78  95  76  93 /  10  30  10  20                           
MCALLEN              79  94  78  92 /  10  30  10  20                           
RIO GRANDE CITY      79  97  76  94 /  10  30  10  20                           
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   81  89  79  88 /  10  30  10  20                           
&&                                                                              
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:                                   
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE                                              
PUBLIC/GRIDS...61                                                               
AVIATION/MARINE...54                                                            
MESO/FXC...VEGA                                                                 
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
332 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
ONE LAST LOOK AT NEW 16.18Z NAM AND RUC13...SHOWS THAT SOME OF                  
SHRA/TSRA NEAR AND SW OF KDLH WILL WORK INTO I-94 CORRIDOR THIS                 
EVENING. FORECAST WILL INCLUDE ISOLD/SCT RAIN CHANCES THROUGH                   
MIDNIGHT...DESPITE LOOPS OF KDLH RADAR SUGGESTING BULK OF THESE                 
SPOTTY SHRA WILL PASS TO THE NORTH/EAST.                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2008/                         
SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT                                              
WARMEST STINT OF THIS COOL SUMMER SET TO COME THIS FORECAST                     
CYCLE...AND VERY LOW/PESKY RAIN THREATS THE CONCERN THROUGH THE                 
SHORT TERM.                                                                     
CURRENTLY...EXPANSIVE SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEB/IA/KS/MO IN                  
CONTROL WITH CONTINUED PLEASANT WEATHER. GOES WATER VAPOR LOOPS                 
SHOWING SEVERAL FEATURES OF INTEREST...THE FIRST OF WHICH IS A                  
WEAK SHORTWAVE IN WRN ONTARIO...A COMPACT AND STRONG CUTOFF LOW                 
OVER UT/CO...AND A STRONGER SHORTWAVE OVER SASK/ALBERTA. GOES                   
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS FIELD OVER                 
ENTIRE CNTL CONUS. DEEP MOISTURE LOCKED UP WAY SOUTH OVER THE SRN               
CONUS...WITH MODIFIED AREA OF HIGH THETA-E AND SEASONABLE PWATS                 
OVER MN/NRN WI AHEAD OF THE ONTARIO SHORTWAVE. ACCAS/-SHRA ALSO NOTED IN        
FORCED ASCENT REGION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE IN NERN MN/UPPER                        
MICHIGAN. WESTERLY BREEZES NORTH OF THE SFC HIGH ALLOWING                       
DEWPOINTS AGAIN TO MIX INTO THE LOWER 50S OVER THE FORECAST AREA                
AS TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. RUC ANALYSIS /16.18Z/                   
SHOWS MASSIVE MIDLEVEL WRN CONUS RIDGE/NERN CONUS TROUGH...WITH                 
STRONG CUTOFF LOW IN CO/UT TUCKED NICELY INTO SERN FLANK OF WRN                 
RIDGE...A QUASI REX-BLOCKING STRUCTURE.                                         
THE 16.12Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF NAM-WRF/GFS/GEM ALL CONTINUE                   
GENERAL DRY TREND...WITH SOME CAVEATS. IN GENERAL...THE NAM-WRF                 
REMAINS THE MOST EAGER TO DEVELOP QPF...HAS HIGHER                              
INSTABILITY...AND HIGHER PWATS...DUE WHAT SEEMS TO BE AN OVERESTIMATION OF      
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. HOWEVER...ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION NEEDS TO               
BE CONSIDERED HERE...SO THERE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE ON                
THE LOW STORM THREATS OVER MN/WI OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.                        
TONIGHT...ONTARIO SHORTWAVE DRIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH UPPER GREAT                
LAKES WITH A VERY WEAK/ALMOST NONEXISTENT LOW CONVERGENCE AXIS.                 
RUC13 ALL DAY AS WELL AS NAM-WRF HAS WANTED TO CONVECT ACROSS CNTL              
MN INTO NERN MN BACK INTO ERN SD...AND THIS YET TO HAPPEN THROUGH 20Z.          
ANALYSIS OF TAMDARS /MSP/ CONFIRM LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOO HIGH IN                
RUC/NAM...THUS LARGER SCALE TRENDS OF GFS/SREF/LOCALLY RUN ARW-WRF              
OF KEEPING VERY ISOLD-SCT DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS                 
LOOKS GOOD. DO EXPECT THIS ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP INTO                 
NRN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING WHERE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND STEEPEST LOW            
LEVEL LAPSE RATES JUXTAPOSED...AND QUESTION BECOMES WHETHER THIS                
CAN DRIBBLE INTO NRN/ERN FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. GIVEN MORE                    
EVIDENCE OF A RAPID DIMINISHING TREND AFTER SUNSET IN THE MODELS                
WHICH ARE CAPTURING CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS BETTER...HAVE                     
DECIDED TO KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE NRN/ERN AREAS THIS EVENING. BUT                 
THIS NEEDS TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. IF SOMETHING MORE ORGANIZED CAN               
GET GOING OVER NRN WI...STORMS COULD MAINTAIN INTO ERN FORECAST                 
AREA OVERNIGHT. THINK VALLEY FOG LESS WIDESPREAD TONIGHT...AND                  
CONFINED TO WI RIVER VALLEY DUE TO WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS/MORE                   
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ON NORTH SIDE OF HIGH.                                      
SUNDAY-TUESDAY...AGAIN...LARGELY A DRY PERIOD HERE WITH VERY WARM               
TEMPERATURES AS WARM NOSE WRAPPED AROUND CNTL PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE IS           
ADVECTED IN FROM WEST/NORTHWEST. MAY VERY WELL SEE SOME AREAS                   
AROUND 90F DURING THIS ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH MOISTURE IN THE LOW                 
LEVELS SLOWLY INCREASING. SEVERAL MORE WEAK WAVES IN THE NORTHWEST              
FLOW WILL SERVE TO DEVELOP/TIGHTEN A SWRD MOVING BAROCLINIC ZONE                
THROUGH WISCONSIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WHICH IS THE TAIL END OF              
A MORE SYNOPTIC SCALE FRONT DROPPING SOUTH AS NERN CONUS TROUGH                 
REDEVELOPS AS THIS ENERGY MOVES INTO THE TROUGH. HERE                           
AGAIN...16.12Z NAM-WRF IS MOST ROBUST WITH CAPE/INSTABILITY/PWATS               
AND IS MORE EAGER TO DEVELOP SPOTTY/ISOLD STORMS DIURNALLY AS                   
CUMULUS FORMS AND CINH IS SMALL EACH AFTERNOON. WILL PROBABLY                   
HAPPEN...BUT LARGER SCALE RIDGE BUILDING IN BY TUESDAY DOESN/T                  
OFFER MUCH SUPPORT...AND THINK ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT SUN-TUES WILL              
BE VERY HARD TO PIN DOWN AND GIVEN LACK OF LARGER SCALE FORCING                 
SIGNAL. THIS IS LIKELY WHY COARSE/GLOBAL MODELS SUCH AS                         
GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL REMAIN MAINLY DRY ASIDE FROM A SPECKLE HERE AND               
THERE...AND WHY SREF PROBS FOR RAIN ARE SO LOW THROUGH THIS                     
PERIOD. FURTHER INSPECTION OF THE THOSE 16.09Z SREF MEMBERS                     
SHOWING MAINLY KAIN-FRITCH CONVECTIVE SCHEMES ALLOWING THIS SPOTTY              
ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP. WITH BULK OF EVIDENCE FAVORING A DRY                       
PERIOD...INCLUDING LOCALLY RUN ARW WRF BASED ON GFS...HAVE DECIDED              
TO WAIT FOR A MORE CONVINCING LARGE SCALE FORCING SIGNAL                        
/SHORTWAVE/ OR SURFACE BOUNDARY...BOTH OF WHICH RIGHT NOW ARE NOT               
AGREED UPON IN STRENGTH OR LOCATION. BOTTOM LINE...WOULD NOT BE                 
SURPRISED TO SEE SMALL RAIN CHANCES BE ADDED AT SOME POINT IN THE               
SUN-TUES TIMEFRAME...MAINLY IN WISCONSIN...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH              
ENOUGH RIGHT NOW AMIDST OVERWHELMING DRY SIGNAL IN MOST DATASETS.               
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY                                          
LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING EVOLUTION OF THE PESKY CUTOFF LOW OVER                 
THE TX/OK AREA...AND WHETHER THIS WILL SINK FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO                 
AVOID BEING SWEPT NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THUR/FRI AHEAD               
OF VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SET TO RUN ACROSS SRN CANADA WED-SAT.              
WHEN INSPECTING NEW 16.12Z ECMWF/CANADIAN...AND MANY OF THE 16.06Z              
GEFS MEMBERS...THERE HAS BEEN A PROPENSITY FOR THE BULK OF THIS                 
LATEST DATA TO TREND THE CUTOFF SO FAR SOUTH INTO TX THAT BY THE                
TIME THE AMBIENT FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE SRN CANADA                         
ENERGY...THAT THE CUTOFF IS TOO FAR SOUTH TO BE ABSORBED INTO THE               
STRONGER WIND FIELD...LEAVING THURS/FRI LARGELY DRY...WITH AT THE               
MOST SOME VERY ELEVATED/ACCAS TYPE SHOWERS AS SOME OF THE MID/HIGH              
LEVEL MOISTURE PEELS OFF INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY. THIS MANIFESTED                
IN VERY LOW GEFS PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE PCPN THESE PERIODS. BUT           
MODEL TRENDS/CONTINUITY ON THUR/FRI ARE NOT GOOD...WITH MODELS                  
MENTIONED ABOVE NOT HAVING LOCKED INTO THIS DRIER TREND/CUTOFF LOW              
LOCATION SOUNDLY YET...AND IN ADDITION...NEW 16.12Z GFS PAINTS A                
PRETTY WET SCENARIO THUR NIGHT/FRI AS THIS LOW DOES INDEED MOVE STRAIGHT        
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. SO WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW RAIN CHANCES                   
BEGINNING THURS AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY IN THE DATABASE...WITH               
THE NOTION THAT THERE IS BUILDING EVIDENCE THAT A GOOD PORTION OF               
THESE DAYS WILL BE DRY...WARM...AND MODERATELY HUMID AS LOW LEVEL               
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BUILD UNDER THE LARGER SCALE RIDGE THROUGH                
WHICH THIS CUTOFF LOW WOULD HAVE TO MOVE. ON SATURDAY...GROWING                 
CONFIDENCE/CONTINUITY IN ABOVE MENTIONED MODELS THAT SRN CANADA                 
ENERGY WILL SWEEP EAST QUICKLY WITH STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE                  
AREA NEXT WEEKEND WITH BETTER RAIN THREATS AND POSSIBLY SEVERE                  
WEATHER. BY THEN...MOISTURE WILL BE AMPLE WITH STRONG WIND FIELDS.              
HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.                       
BINAU                                                                           
AVIATION...                                                                     
500 MB RIDGE/NORTHWEST FLOW...ALONG WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE               
HOLDING ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WILL KEEP THE                 
REGION UNDER PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF             
NEXT WEEK. WEAK SFC BOUNDARY AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN               
MN/WI HAS TO THE POTENTIAL TO SPARK ISOLATED SHRA/TS LATE THIS                  
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO HOLD MOSTLY ACROSS               
NORTHERN WI. BUILDING INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL MN COULD RESULT IN             
SOME SPOTTY SHRA/TS ALSO...BUT AGAIN...BELIEVE KRST/KLSE WILL AVOID             
THIS THREAT. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE IN THE RIVER VALLEYS TONIGHT...BUT             
10 KT WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC SHOULD KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE STIRRED                 
ENOUGH WHERE WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN. WILL NOT            
ADD MENTION TO KLSE AS A RESULT. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR               
SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER WESTERLY WINDS COMPARED TO                  
TODAY. A FEW AFTERNOON CU ARE EXPECTED...BUT WITH THE LINGERING SFC             
BOUNDARY STILL TO THE NORTHEAST...DO NOT SEE A SHRA/TS THREAT AT                
THIS TIME.                                                                      
RIECK                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
01/01                                                                           
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
308 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT                                             
WARMEST STINT OF THIS COOL SUMMER SET TO COME THIS FORECAST                     
CYCLE...AND VERY LOW/PESKY RAIN THREATS THE CONCERN THROUGH THE                 
SHORT TERM.                                                                     
CURRENTLY...EXPANSIVE SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEB/IA/KS/MO IN                  
CONTROL WITH CONTINUED PLEASANT WEATHER. GOES WATER VAPOR LOOPS                 
SHOWING SEVERAL FEATURES OF INTEREST...THE FIRST OF WHICH IS A                  
WEAK SHORTWAVE IN WRN ONTARIO...A COMPACT AND STRONG CUTOFF LOW                 
OVER UT/CO...AND A STRONGER SHORTWAVE OVER SASK/ALBERTA. GOES                   
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS FIELD OVER                 
ENTIRE CNTL CONUS. DEEP MOISTURE LOCKED UP WAY SOUTH OVER THE SRN               
CONUS...WITH MODIFIED AREA OF HIGH THETA-E AND SEASONABLE PWATS                 
OVER MN/NRN WI AHEAD OF THE ONTARIO SHORTWAVE. ACCAS/-SHRA ALSO NOTED IN        
FORCED ASCENT REGION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE IN NERN MN/UPPER                        
MICHIGAN. WESTERLY BREEZES NORTH OF THE SFC HIGH ALLOWING                       
DEWPOINTS AGAIN TO MIX INTO THE LOWER 50S OVER THE FORECAST AREA                
AS TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. RUC ANALYSIS /16.18Z/                   
SHOWS MASSIVE MIDLEVEL WRN CONUS RIDGE/NERN CONUS TROUGH...WITH                 
STRONG CUTOFF LOW IN CO/UT TUCKED NICELY INTO SERN FLANK OF WRN                 
RIDGE...A QUASI REX-BLOCKING STRUCTURE.                                         
THE 16.12Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF NAM-WRF/GFS/GEM ALL CONTINUE                   
GENERAL DRY TREND...WITH SOME CAVEATS. IN GENERAL...THE NAM-WRF                 
REMAINS THE MOST EAGER TO DEVELOP QPF...HAS HIGHER                              
INSTABILITY...AND HIGHER PWATS...DUE WHAT SEEMS TO BE AN OVERESTIMATION OF      
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. HOWEVER...ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION NEEDS TO               
BE CONSIDERED HERE...SO THERE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE ON                
THE LOW STORM THREATS OVER MN/WI OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.                        
TONIGHT...ONTARIO SHORTWAVE DRIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH UPPER GREAT                
LAKES WITH A VERY WEAK/ALMOST NONEXISTENT LOW CONVERGENCE AXIS.                 
RUC13 ALL DAY AS WELL AS NAM-WRF HAS WANTED TO CONVECT ACROSS CNTL              
MN INTO NERN MN BACK INTO ERN SD...AND THIS YET TO HAPPEN THROUGH 20Z.          
ANALYSIS OF TAMDARS /MSP/ CONFIRM LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOO HIGH IN                
RUC/NAM...THUS LARGER SCALE TRENDS OF GFS/SREF/LOCALLY RUN ARW-WRF              
OF KEEPING VERY ISOLD-SCT DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS                 
LOOKS GOOD. DO EXPECT THIS ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP INTO                 
NRN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING WHERE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND STEEPEST LOW            
LEVEL LAPSE RATES JUXTAPOSED...AND QUESTION BECOMES WHETHER THIS                
CAN DRIBBLE INTO NRN/ERN FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. GIVEN MORE                    
EVIDENCE OF A RAPID DIMINISHING TREND AFTER SUNSET IN THE MODELS                
WHICH ARE CAPTURING CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS BETTER...HAVE                     
DECIDED TO KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE NRN/ERN AREAS THIS EVENING. BUT                 
THIS NEEDS TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. IF SOMETHING MORE ORGANIZED CAN               
GET GOING OVER NRN WI...STORMS COULD MAINTAIN INTO ERN FORECAST                 
AREA OVERNIGHT. THINK VALLEY FOG LESS WIDESPREAD TONIGHT...AND                  
CONFINED TO WI RIVER VALLEY DUE TO WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS/MORE                   
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ON NORTH SIDE OF HIGH.                                      
SUNDAY-TUESDAY...AGAIN...LARGELY A DRY PERIOD HERE WITH VERY WARM               
TEMPERATURES AS WARM NOSE WRAPPED AROUND CNTL PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE IS           
ADVECTED IN FROM WEST/NORTHWEST. MAY VERY WELL SEE SOME AREAS                   
AROUND 90F DURING THIS ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH MOISTURE IN THE LOW                 
LEVELS SLOWLY INCREASING. SEVERAL MORE WEAK WAVES IN THE NORTHWEST              
FLOW WILL SERVE TO DEVELOP/TIGHTEN A SWRD MOVING BAROCLINIC ZONE                
THROUGH WISCONSIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WHICH IS THE TAIL END OF              
A MORE SYNOPTIC SCALE FRONT DROPPING SOUTH AS NERN CONUS TROUGH                 
REDEVELOPS AS THIS ENERGY MOVES INTO THE TROUGH. HERE                           
AGAIN...16.12Z NAM-WRF IS MOST ROBUST WITH CAPE/INSTABILITY/PWATS               
AND IS MORE EAGER TO DEVELOP SPOTTY/ISOLD STORMS DIURNALLY AS                   
CUMULUS FORMS AND CINH IS SMALL EACH AFTERNOON. WILL PROBABLY                   
HAPPEN...BUT LARGER SCALE RIDGE BUILDING IN BY TUESDAY DOESN/T                  
OFFER MUCH SUPPORT...AND THINK ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT SUN-TUES WILL              
BE VERY HARD TO PIN DOWN AND GIVEN LACK OF LARGER SCALE FORCING                 
SIGNAL. THIS IS LIKELY WHY COARSE/GLOBAL MODELS SUCH AS                         
GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL REMAIN MAINLY DRY ASIDE FROM A SPECKLE HERE AND               
THERE...AND WHY SREF PROBS FOR RAIN ARE SO LOW THROUGH THIS                     
PERIOD. FURTHER INSPECTION OF THE THOSE 16.09Z SREF MEMBERS                     
SHOWING MAINLY KAIN-FRITCH CONVECTIVE SCHEMES ALLOWING THIS SPOTTY              
ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP. WITH BULK OF EVIDENCE FAVORING A DRY                       
PERIOD...INCLUDING LOCALLY RUN ARW WRF BASED ON GFS...HAVE DECIDED              
TO WAIT FOR A MORE CONVINCING LARGE SCALE FORCING SIGNAL                        
/SHORTWAVE/ OR SURFACE BOUNDARY...BOTH OF WHICH RIGHT NOW ARE NOT               
AGREED UPON IN STRENGTH OR LOCATION. BOTTOM LINE...WOULD NOT BE                 
SURPRISED TO SEE SMALL RAIN CHANCES BE ADDED AT SOME POINT IN THE               
SUN-TUES TIMEFRAME...MAINLY IN WISCONSIN...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH              
ENOUGH RIGHT NOW AMIDST OVERWHELMING DRY SIGNAL IN MOST DATASETS.               
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY                                         
LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING EVOLUTION OF THE PESKY CUTOFF LOW OVER                 
THE TX/OK AREA...AND WHETHER THIS WILL SINK FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO                 
AVOID BEING SWEPT NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THUR/FRI AHEAD               
OF VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SET TO RUN ACROSS SRN CANADA WED-SAT.              
WHEN INSPECTING NEW 16.12Z ECMWF/CANADIAN...AND MANY OF THE 16.06Z              
GEFS MEMBERS...THERE HAS BEEN A PROPENSITY FOR THE BULK OF THIS                 
LATEST DATA TO TREND THE CUTOFF SO FAR SOUTH INTO TX THAT BY THE                
TIME THE AMBIENT FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE SRN CANADA                         
ENERGY...THAT THE CUTOFF IS TOO FAR SOUTH TO BE ABSORBED INTO THE               
STRONGER WIND FIELD...LEAVING THURS/FRI LARGELY DRY...WITH AT THE               
MOST SOME VERY ELEVATED/ACCAS TYPE SHOWERS AS SOME OF THE MID/HIGH              
LEVEL MOISTURE PEELS OFF INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY. THIS MANIFESTED                
IN VERY LOW GEFS PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE PCPN THESE PERIODS. BUT           
MODEL TRENDS/CONTINUITY ON THUR/FRI ARE NOT GOOD...WITH MODELS                  
MENTIONED ABOVE NOT HAVING LOCKED INTO THIS DRIER TREND/CUTOFF LOW              
LOCATION SOUNDLY YET...AND IN ADDITION...NEW 16.12Z GFS PAINTS A                
PRETTY WET SCENARIO THUR NIGHT/FRI AS THIS LOW DOES INDEED MOVE STRAIGHT        
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. SO WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW RAIN CHANCES                   
BEGINNING THURS AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY IN THE DATABASE...WITH               
THE NOTION THAT THERE IS BUILDING EVIDENCE THAT A GOOD PORTION OF               
THESE DAYS WILL BE DRY...WARM...AND MODERATELY HUMID AS LOW LEVEL               
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BUILD UNDER THE LARGER SCALE RIDGE THROUGH                
WHICH THIS CUTOFF LOW WOULD HAVE TO MOVE. ON SATURDAY...GROWING                 
CONFIDENCE/CONTINUITY IN ABOVE MENTIONED MODELS THAT SRN CANADA                 
ENERGY WILL SWEEP EAST QUICKLY WITH STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE                  
AREA NEXT WEEKEND WITH BETTER RAIN THREATS AND POSSIBLY SEVERE                  
WEATHER. BY THEN...MOISTURE WILL BE AMPLE WITH STRONG WIND FIELDS.              
HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.                       
BINAU                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
500 MB RIDGE/NORTHWEST FLOW...ALONG WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE               
HOLDING ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WILL KEEP THE                 
REGION UNDER PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF             
NEXT WEEK. WEAK SFC BOUNDARY AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN               
MN/WI HAS TO THE POTENTIAL TO SPARK ISOLATED SHRA/TS LATE THIS                  
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO HOLD MOSTLY ACROSS               
NORTHERN WI. BUILDING INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL MN COULD RESULT IN             
SOME SPOTTY SHRA/TS ALSO...BUT AGAIN...BELIEVE KRST/KLSE WILL AVOID             
THIS THREAT. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE IN THE RIVER VALLEYS TONIGHT...BUT             
10 KT WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC SHOULD KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE STIRRED                 
ENOUGH WHERE WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN. WILL NOT            
ADD MENTION TO KLSE AS A RESULT. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR               
SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER WESTERLY WINDS COMPARED TO                  
TODAY. A FEW AFTERNOON CU ARE EXPECTED...BUT WITH THE LINGERING SFC             
BOUNDARY STILL TO THE NORTHEAST...DO NOT SEE A SHRA/TS THREAT AT                
THIS TIME.                                                                      
RIECK                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
151 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
UPPER LOW VICINITY OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH SLOWLY                  
EAST. RUC SHOWS STEEPER LAPSE RATES BELOW 700 MB. JUST ENOUGH                   
MOISTURE ON LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY TO SET OFF ISOLATED SHOWER.                    
HOWEVER WITH LIMITED CAPE AND WITH DRYING IN MID LEVELS THESE                   
SHOWERS SHOULD NOT DEVELOP ANY MORE. SOME PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL                  
WITH SURFACE HIGH...MAINLY IN RIVER VALLEYS.                                    
WEAK NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AS EASTERN GREAT LAKES LOW OPENS AND                  
MOVES OFF TO NEW ENGLAND.                                                       
VERY WEAK VORT/SHORTWAVE FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LIMITED                   
MOISTURE AND CAPE SO WILL HAVE MAINLY DRY FORECAST EXCEPT FOR                   
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NORTH TOWARD FOND DU LAC AND                     
SHEBOYGAN...CLOSER TO SHORTWAVE.                                                
AS SURFACE HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES SOUTH...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND                 
BEGINS WITH WEST 850 MB FLOW FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.                          
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
BOTH GFS AND 00Z ECMWF GRADUALLY BUILD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE UPPER               
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY...AND OVER THE               
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY.                                                          
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THURSDAY...BUT IS WEAKER ON ECMWF.                         
WITH LARGE SURFACE HIGH RETREATING...AND WEAK SOUTH WINDS...EXPECT              
SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE...BUT PREFER THE WEAKER FLOW AND DRIER                
ECMWF FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM.                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO WI WITH VFR CONDITIONS THRU            
THE WEEKEND. SOME PATCHY...SHALLOW GROUND FOG CAN BE EXPECTED                   
TONIGHT...BUT CERTAINLY NOT ENOUGH TO MAKE MENTION IN THE TAFS.                 
&&                                                                              
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT/LONG TERM...06/HENTZ                                                      
AVIATION/MARINE...18/BORGHOFF                                                   
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
350 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AS            
A WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH MONDAY.                  
TROPICAL STORM FAY IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH                
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...AS IT MOVES ACROSS CUBA.                                   
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE AS LOW LVL UPSLOPE FLOW             
WKNS DURING THESE WEE MORNING HOURS. A POTENT VORT MAX WAS WELL                 
DEFINED ON W/V AND RUC H5 ANALYSIS OVR THE CWFA AT 06Z. THIS VORT               
WILL SLOWLY SHFT E...WITH AN NVA REGIME MOVG OVR THE AREA DURING THE            
DAY. THIS AFTN...THERE MAY BE ENUF SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP THE AREA                  
CAPPED. THE GFS SHOWS LOW LVL MOISTURE REMAINING ACRS THE                       
PIEDMONT...AS LOW LVL FLOW VEERS TO SELY. THE SREF IS MORE LIKE THE             
NAM IN KEEPING THE AREA RELATIVELY STABLE (PROB OF CAPE > 1000 J/KG             
< 20%). BOTH THE NAM AND SREF STILL INDICATE A FEW ISOLD MTN SHWRS              
AND TSTMS...HWVR. SO I TWEAKED GRIDS TO INCLUDE ENTIRE FA IN SLGT               
CHC POP (WITH LOW-END CHC ALONG CAE CWFA BORDER). MAX TEMPS WILL BE             
ABOUT THE SAME AS YDA (70S TO LWR 80S MTNS AND UPR 80S                          
FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT).                                                            
TONIGHT...MODEL T-SECTIONS SHOW NOCTURNAL SELY LLJ DEVELOPING LIKE              
WE HAD THIS MORNING (SATURDAY NIGHT). THE GFS HAS LESS INSTBY AFTER             
00Z THEN WHAT WAS ANALYZED WITH YDA/S CONVECTION. ALSO...ONLY SOME              
WK RIPPLES IN THE UPR LVLS WILL BE THERE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION. SO              
JUST A SLGT CHC POP FOR THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT FROM I-40 AND                 
S...TO THE UPR SAVANNAH VLY.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                                   
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...LTL CHG WAS MADE TO THE SHORT TERM...AS AIR               
MASS CHGS LTL...AND MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THRU THIS PERIOD.              
ALL EYES ON TS FAY...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE INVOF HAVANA...CUBA BY             
ERLY MONDAY. WK SFC HI PRES WILL PERSIST ACRS THE OH VLY TO THE MID             
ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN ELY LOW LVL FLOW. A COASTAL FRONT/TROF OF               
SORTS WILL STRENGTHEN FROM GA TO CAPE HATTERAS...OUT AHEAD OF FAY.              
THIS LOOKS TO BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...WHICH SHUD KEEP MOST OF             
THE DEEPER MOISTURE OUT OF OUR AREA UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK. SO                 
GENERALLY ONLY A FEW ISOLD SHWRS/TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED AT MOST ON               
MONDAY...WITH A SLIGHTLY HIER CHC ON TUESDAY...AS SAID BNDRY BEGINS             
TO ADVANCE INLAND A BIT. OTRW...TEMPS SHUD STAY ABOUT NORMAL THRU               
TUESDAY. AGAIN...THIS IS A RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE FCST...AS THE                  
STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF FAY MAY RESULT IN MORE SUBSIDENCE OVR THE              
AREA TUESDAY (AND THUS DRIER CONDITIONS).                                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                      
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...THE LATEST NHC FCST AND THE 00Z/17 GFS ARE IN             
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE TRACK OF TS FAY. THE 2 AM NHC FCST PEGS FAY              
AS A DEPRESSION OVR ELBERT COUNTY AT 00Z/22. SO I BLENDED THE 00Z               
MEX TO RAISE POPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TO MATCH THE STRONGER                  
CONFIDENCE IN FAY`S LIKELY AFFECT ON THE WX ACRS THE CWFA. FOR                  
NOW...A MID- TO HIGH-END CHC BOTH DAYS...WITH MAX TEMPS ADJUSTED                
DOWN A CAT OR TWO. ATTM...QPF AMTS ARE STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.                  
HWVR...IF THE CURRENT FCST TRACK VERIFIES...OUR AREA SHUD SEE                   
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BY LATE NEXT WEEK. A MENTION OF THIS            
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE PLACED IN THE HWO.                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                      
WEAK BNDRY WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. STRONG STORMS               
HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE BNDRY BETWEEN KHKY AND KCLT. STORMS WILL               
LIKELY BUILD BACK INTO KHKY THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. I THINK THEY WILL            
STAY NORTH OF KCLT...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE. MANY SITES WILL SEE FOG              
OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS...THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP            
IT FROM BECOMING DENSE.                                                         
LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHEAST THIS              
AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF CU WILL DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING...BUT I               
WON/T INCLUDE CB/S QUITE YET AS IT LOOKS A LITTLE MORE STABLE TODAY             
AND THIS EVENING.                                                               
OUTLOOK...SFC FRONT REMAINS JUST S OF AREA MON. PRECIP CHANCE                   
APPEARS MINIMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. TROPICAL STORM FAY MAY APPROACH             
FROM THE S AROUND MID WEEK.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...ARK                                                                  
NEAR TERM...ARK                                                                 
SHORT TERM...ARK                                                                
LONG TERM...ARK                                                                 
AVIATION...MCAVOY                                                               
</pre> sc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX                                  
315 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
INVERTED SFC TROF ANALYZED FROM LAREDO TO HONDO TO LLANO AT                     
MIDNIGHT. A CONVERGENCE WAS ALSO ANALYZED FROM JUST NORTH OF                    
LAREDO EAST TO JUST NORTH OF CORPUS CHRISTI. THE INTERSECTION IS                
KEEPING RAIN GOING ACROSS MAVERICK AND DIMMIT COUNTIES. THE RUC                 
PICKS UP ON THE CONVERGENT BOUNDARY AND HAS IT STATIONARY THIS                  
MORNING. MODELS NOT DOING TOO GOOD WITH SURFACE FEATURES BECAUSE                
OF THE MANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. HOWEVER, THE UPPER LEVELS ARE ALL               
INITIALIZED WELL WITH 00Z UPPER AIR PLOTS.                                      
BETTER ORGANIZED RAIN WILL SHAPE UP TODAY WITH THE 700MB TROF MOVING            
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE. THE RIO GRANDE REGION IS EXPECTED              
TO RECEIVE EXCESSIVE RAIN TODAY LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.  THE             
700MB TROF IS PROGGED TO DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA OVER THE                 
NEXT 3 DAYS. WITH THE TROPICAL AIR OVER US, LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN                  
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE WITH US THROUGH AT                
LEAST TUESDAY. WILL START A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WESTERN HALF              
OF THE CWA WHERE RAIN SHIELD IS PERSISTING (ROUGHLY ALONG AND WEST              
OF A LLANO TO PEARSALL LINE). IT IS LIKELY THE WATCH WILL NEED                  
RECONFIGURING AS THIS RAIN EVENT EVOLVES.                                       
BY MIDWEEK (WEDNESDAY) THE UPPER TROF AXIS IS PROGGED TO SLICE                  
NORTH-SOUTH ALONG I-35 WITH HIGH P.W.`S OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF               
THE CWA, KEEPING THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING RAINS GOING EAST OF                 
I-35.                                                                           
SOIL MOISTURE SHOULD BE REPLENISHED BY LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.                
THEREFORE, MAX TEMPS WILL HOVER NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE                   
WEEKEND.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              88  69  88  70  84 /  80  80  80  60  60         
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  87  69  89  68  84 /  80  80  80  60  60         
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           87  72  86  71  88 / 100 100  70  50  50         
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       87  72  86  71  85 /  90  90  80  60  60         
&&                                                                              
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING                     
COUNTIES: BANDERA...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FRIO...GILLESPIE...KERR...               
KINNEY...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...               
ZAVALA.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
06/11                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
351 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...MAIN FOCUS ON DRY AND WARM WEATHER REGIME INTO MID                
WEEK.                                                                           
TODAY-                                                                          
WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT GENERATED ISOLD/SCT STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN WI               
SHIFTING SOUTH OF HERE THIS MORNING. RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE ACTIVITY             
VERY ISOLATED BUT STILL HOLDING TOGETHER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA.               
WILL HAVE MENTION IN GRIDS EARLY ON THROUGH 12Z FOR NOW. WATER                  
VAPOR/RUC SUPPORT GENERAL RIDGING TAKING HOLD FOR TODAY. H7 PROGS               
SHOW LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND THIS MORNING. WEST/SOUTHWEST           
850 MILLIBAR FLOW WILL ADVECT WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH NO                 
LAKE BREEZE EXPECTED.                                                           
TONIGHT-                                                                        
WEAK SURFACE AND 850 MILLIBAR RIDGING WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF                 
FORCING UPSTAIRS...THUS THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES.                              
MONDAY-                                                                         
MODELS SHOWING A 500 MILLIBAR WAVE COMING DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST                 
FLOW. THERE IS ALSO A SHALLOW FRONT THAT IS SLIDING INTO THE CWA                
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ON            
THE MODELS IS TIED MORE TO THE 850 MILLIBAR BAROCLINIC RIBBON ACROSS            
NORTHERN WISCONSIN.                                                             
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT-                                                
DOMINATED BY SURFACE AND 850 MILLIBAR RIDGING HOWEVER 500 MILLIBAR              
FLOW SUGGEST WEAK WAVES WITHIN A RATHER DIFFUES LOOKING UPPER FLOW              
PATTERN. HARD TO LATCH ONTO MUCH HERE AT THIS POINT. LOW LEVEL FLOW             
LOOKS TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR MOISTURE/INSTABILITY                
RETURN ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER FORCING STILL A BIG QUESTION MARK.                
ADVERTISING DRY STILL LOOKS BETTER AT THIS JUNCTURE THAN GETTING                
HOPES HIGH FOR IFFY RAIN CHANCES.                                               
THURSDAY-                                                                       
GFS BRINGS UPPER LOW NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND                   
THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF ESSENTIALLY KEEPS CWA DRY UNTIL             
SATURDAY. GFS DPROGS THURSDAY NIGHT WOULD ACTUALLY BE A BETTER SHOT             
THAN THURSDAY BASED ON THE MORE CONSISTENT SIGNAL FROM THE MODEL                
TRENDS. THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN CONSISTENCY WITH THE DRY LOOK FOR                   
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL STEER TOWARDS SLIGHT CHANCES              
FOR THURSDAY AND BUMP BARELY INTO CHANCY CATEGORY FOR THURSDAY                  
NIGHT.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
10                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR THRU PERIOD. SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EARLY WITH              
S/W PASSING TO THE NE/EAST OF AREA.                                             
&&                                                                              
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
1000 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
14Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS REVEALING A FAIRLY MESSY UPPER              
AIR PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THIS MORNING. SHOWING LONGWAVE                 
RIDGING OVER MUCH OF THE WEST...HOWEVER THE PERSISTENT CUTOFF UPPER             
LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN IN PLACE OF COLORADO PINCHING INTO THE EASTERN            
SIDE OF THIS RIDGE. NO BIG SURPRISE TO FIND LONGWAVE TROUGHING                  
FURTHER TO THE EAST COVERING THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION AS THIS            
HAS BEEN A SEMI-PERMANENT FEATURE THIS SUMMER. THIS TROUGH CURRENTLY            
EXTENDS ITS AXIS DOWN THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS TO THE NORTHEAST            
GULF COAST. PERIODIC PIECES OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY CONTINUE TO ROUND               
THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA WITH ONE SHORTWAVE             
EXITING OFF THE GA COAST THIS MORNING AND ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE              
PROGGED BY LATEST GFS/NAM TO CROSS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.                  
AT THE SURFACE...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH                
A LIGHT AND VARIABLE MEAN 1000-700MB FLOW. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE                
MORE INFLUENCED BY AFTERNOON SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND SCT                    
SHOWER/STORM OUTFLOW THAN BY THE GRADIENT. A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN              
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH A BALANCE TIPPED MORE TOWARD THE              
CLOUDS SIDE. SHOULD SEE MORE AND MORE BREAKS OF SUN AS WE HEAD                  
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. KEVX/KTLH RADARS SHOWING A SCATTERING OF              
SHOWERS AND STORMS PUSHING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS               
WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL DURING THE MORNING HOURS THIS TIME OF YEAR.             
TEMPERATURES RISING THROUGH THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ON THEIR WAY            
TO AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S TO NEAR 90.                                
&&                                                                              
UPDATE/DISCUSSION...                                                            
REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL FEATURES A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN.               
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST INTO THE EARLY             
AFTERNOON AS OFFSHORE CONVECTION OCCASIONALLY REACHES                           
SHORE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN GULF...FRANKLIN...TAYLOR AND                 
DIXIE COUNTIES.                                                                 
MOIST PROFILE OFF THIS MORNINGS KTLH SOUNDING SHOWING A PW OVER 2".             
MODIFYING THIS PROFILE FOR AFTERNOON SURFACE CONDITIONS IN THE UPPER            
80S OVER UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S YIELDS BETWEEN 2000-2500 J/KG OF                
CAPE. NOT AN OVERLY IMPRESSIVE VALUE BUT WITHIN THE NORMAL RANGE FOR            
THIS TIME OF YEAR. DEPENDING ON JUST HOW MUCH DIURNAL HEATING WE CAN            
SQUEEZE OUT BETWEEN THE CLOUDS...EXPECTING SCT COVERAGE OF                      
CONVECTION ALMOST REGION-WIDE DURING THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON HOURS INTO            
THE EARLY EVENING. COVERAGE MAY BE A BIT HIGHER ALONG AND SOUTH OF              
THE I-10 CORRIDOR WHERE SEA-BREEZE CONVERGENCE ADDS A LOW LEVEL                 
CONVERGENCE FOCUS TO THE EQUATION. HOWEVER...EVEN WITHOUT A                     
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FOCUS...DO EXPECT WEAK MID-LEVEL ENERGY TO CROSS            
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ADDING A LIMITED AMOUNT OF LARGE-SCALE LIFT.            
CURRENT POP GRIDS SHOWING 40-50% COVERAGE NORTH AND 50-60% COVERAGE             
SOUTH. THIS MAY BE JUST A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE BASED ON THE AMOUNT              
OF SUPPRESSIVE CLOUDCOVER...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON MAKING ANY                     
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES JUST YET AS DO EXPECT SUNSHINE TO INCREASE                  
SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.                                               
MESSY UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PATTERN CONTINUES OVERHEAD INTO TONIGHT.            
EXPECTING SCT EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FADE RAPIDLY AFTER                  
SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...AND LEAVING PARTLY TO                 
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT.                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
VERY LIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS THIS MORNING. LATEST             
OBSERVATIONS FOR THE BUOYS INDICATING VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 5                
KNOTS WITH SEAS ONLY AROUND 1 FOOT. EXPECTING FLOW TO COME AROUND TO            
A WESTERLY DIRECTION BY THE END OF THE DAY BUT REMAIN LIGHT WITH                
SEAS BETWEEN 1 AND 2 FEET. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORM CONTINUING               
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE INTO THE                    
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A VARIABLE FLOW GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS               
WITH LIGHT SEAS.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MVFR VSBY HAVE LIFTED WITH VFR EXPECTED INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.                   
THEN...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED ESPECIALLY FL               
TERMINALS WITH TEMPOS FOR TSTMS AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS BEGINNING 17-18Z            
WRN AND 18-19Z ERN TERMINALS...ENDING AROUND 22Z. THEN VFR ON TAP.              
AFT 09Z...MVFR FOR VSBYS/LIGHT RAIN FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT PERHAPS            
KPFN.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
...TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE INTO EASTERN              
MOST GULF TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...                                             
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...LINGERING TROUGHS AT SFC AND              
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY               
AND MONDAY. IR AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN               
THE UPPER FLOW WHICH WILL CROSS THE CWA DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE             
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THIS FEATURE CLEARS THE AREA...MAY SEE SOME                 
BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST BY LATE THIS MORNING. MODELS THEN DEPICT                 
ANOTHER WEAK RIPPLE IN THE FLOW MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS               
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO GOOD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THIS                 
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FLORIDA ZONES.                                  
BY MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS A DEEP UPPER              
LOW DROPS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...WILL STILL SEE SOME               
REMNANTS OF THE SFC TROUGH AROUND THE AREA AS WELL DEEP MOISTURE.               
THUS...STILL ANTICIPATE GOOD COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING                  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN.                                           
TUESDAY GETS MORE COMPLICATED AS WE BEGIN TO GET INFLUENCED BY THE              
CIRCULATION AROUND FAY. MOIST EASTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE                 
CIRCULATION COMBINED WITH ANY LINGERING REMNANT OF THE SFC TROUGH               
SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER WET DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF             
OF THE CWA.                                                                     
OVERALL...WET PERIOD LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS.             
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO FOR MOST LOCATIONS             
DUE TO ENHANCED CLOUD COVER.                                                    
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS               
TROPICAL STORM FAY...OR WILL IT BE HURRICANE FAY...TO BEGIN TO                  
AFFECT OUR AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE 34-KNOT WIND CONE SHOULD                
BEGIN TO AFFECT OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUESDAY NIGHT.                 
WITH THE TRACK FORECAST NOW JUST EAST OF OUR CWA...THIS SHOULD                  
LESSEN THE IMPACT ON OUR LOCAL CWA...BUT WILL KEEP THE POPS ABOVE               
CLIMO AND TEMPS NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO THROUGH WEDNESDAY                  
INTO THURSDAY. AS FAY PROGRESSES NORTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY...                      
TROUGH/SHORT WAVE COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN                   
PLAINS TODAY WILL BE LOCATED IN THE OK/TX REGION ACCORDING TO GFS.              
THIS SYSTEM IS A MAJOR PLAYER ON WHAT FAY WILL GO. ACCORDING TO                 
THE GFS...THIS TROUGH GETS CAUGHT UP WITH ANOTHER APPROACHING                   
TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND RAPIDLY FILLS AND PUSHES                  
NORTHEAST. THE REMNANTS OF FAY REMNANT DOES MUCH THE SAME. THE 00Z              
EURO HAS ANOTHER SOLUTION. FAY TURNS QUICKLY NORTHEAST AND GETS                 
STUCK FOR A FEW DAYS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AS A RIDGE TO THE                   
NORTH BLOCKS ITS PATH. IN OUR AREA...THE GFS SOLUTION HAS AN UPPER              
RIDGE SETTLING IN BEHIND FAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER              
TROPICAL SYSTEM APPROACHES SOUTH FLORIDA AS A MID LATITUDE TROUGH               
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WHICH MAKES ANOTHER HEAVY WORK SCHEDULE              
IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. THE GFS AND EURO ARE SIMILAR...BUT THE                
GFS SHOWS MORE A VIGOROUS TROPICAL SYSTEM AS WELL AS MID LATITUDE               
SYSTEM.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL                
DAYS WILL KEEP HUMIDITY VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.                      
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  88  70  90  71  90 /  60  30  50  30  60                           
PANAMA CITY  86  73  88  75  88 /  50  30  50  20  50                           
DOTHAN       89  69  89  70  89 /  50  20  50  30  50                           
ALBANY       89  69  90  70  90 /  40  20  40  30  60                           
VALDOSTA     88  69  90  71  89 /  50  20  50  30  60                           
CROSS CITY   87  70  90  72  89 /  60  30  50  30  60                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/UPDATE/MARINE...MROCZKA                                                
AVIATION...BLOCK                                                                
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CAMP/WATSON                                               
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
1229 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A STALLED FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA BEFORE               
DISSIPATING MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTRUBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH                
THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF                
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE               
PLAINS STATES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM FAY...CURRENTLY               
JUST SOUTH OF THE EASTERN END OF CUBA...IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG               
THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL OVER              
GEORGIA OR THE INLAND CAROLINAS LATE IN THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY              
MOVE SOUTH FROM THE MID- ATLANTIC REGION INTO THE CAROLINAS                     
THURSDAY...ALSO STALLING NEARBY.                                                
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
AS OF 11 AM SUNDAY...A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS ALONG THE COAST THIS                     
MORNING WERE RESPONSIBLE FOR SPAWNING WATERSPOUTS SOUTH OF                      
BRUNSWICK CNTY AND NEAR SNOWS CUT BRIDGE. A COUPLE OF SPECIAL                   
MARINE WARNINGS WERE ISSUED FOR THE WATERSPOUTS. THE FOCUS SHIFTED              
TOWARD INLAND COUNTIES BY MID MORNING WHERE SHWRS/TSTMS SHIFTED                 
EAST OVER OUR CWA. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUED                  
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THESE AREAS OF CONVECTION SEEMED TO                  
LINE UP NICELY WITH SOME IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH WITH VORT CENTERS              
TRACKING ACROSS THESE AREAS THIS MORNING. THE RUC CONTINUES TO                  
SHOW THE BEST SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE PIEDMONT AREA THROUGH THIS              
AFTERNOON AND TRACKING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING.               
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH PCP WATER                    
VALUES ON MORNING SOUNDINGS AROUND 1.75 INCHES. AREAS WHERE                     
SHWRS/TSTMS OCCURRED THIS MORNING SHOULD HELP TO STABILIZE THE                  
WESTERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY OF MID TO UPPER DRY AIR               
STILL REMAINING NORTH OF AREA AS EVIDENT BY THE WATER VAPOR                     
IMAGERY. DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF WELL               
TO THE NORTH AND WEST NEAR THE NC BORDER WHILE OUR CWA REMAINS                  
WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70. TEMPS ACROSS GEORGETOWN                              
AND WILLIAMSBURG WILL REACH INTO THE MID 80S THROUGH EARLY                      
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COASTAL AREAS. AS MID TO UPPER                
LEVEL CLOUDS THIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO                  
RISE AND THERE SHOULD BE SOME AREAS OF DIFFENTIAL HEATING TO HELP               
SPARK SOME CONVECTION. EXPECT BEST COVERAGE ACROSS SC COUNTIES                  
WHERE BEST HEATING...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LIES AND ALSO ALONG               
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AS IT MEETS UP WITH EARLIER BOUNDARIES FROM                 
CONVECTION THIS MORNING.                                                        
BY THIS EVENING...BEST SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST              
AND ONCE HEATING OF THE DAY CUTS OFF...EXPECT SHWRS/TSTMS TO                    
TAPER OFF...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND AREAS.                                     
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                                   
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...DRIER AIR PUSHING INTO THE AREA MON WILL LIMIT              
PRECIP CHANCES AND RESULT IN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN                    
PREVIOUS DAYS. STILL THINK SOME SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WILL BE                      
AROUND...BUT IT WILL BE A RESULT OF DEVELOPING OVER THE WATERS OR               
ON THE SEA BREEZE AND SPREADING INLAND. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ALONG              
THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH SLT CHC TO NO CHC INLAND.                              
THE NAM HAS FINALLY JOINED THE GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET WITH KEEPING                  
FAY ON THE W COAST OF FL AS THE STORM HEADS N. THE NAM STILL WANTS              
TO MOVE THE STORM E...BUT NOT AS IT HAS IN EARLIER RUNS AND HAS AN              
END POINT SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE GFS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO STICK              
TO ITS GUNS AND TRACKS FAY ACROSS SRN FL...OFF THE E COAST OF FL                
AND TO POINTS ALONG THE SC/NC COAST. NHC TRACK IS IN LINE WITH THE              
GFS/CANADIAN AND HAS SHOWN LITTLE VARIABILITY DURING THE PAST                   
DAY. THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW...DO FEEL A LITTLE BETTER                   
ABOUT THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW AND MID LEVEL                     
MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING DURING THE DAY TUE AS FAY SPREADS                   
TROPICAL MOISTURE N. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND                      
SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WHERE SPEED CONVERGENCE                  
SHOULD ENHANCE ONGOING STORMS...TUE AFTN. INCREASED CLOUD COVER                 
AND STORMS COVERAGE WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BELOW                  
CLIMO WHILE LOWS RUN SLIGHT ABOVE CLIMO.                                        
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                      
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS THROUGH                
THE PERIOD WITH TROPICAL STORM FAY BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. LATEST               
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NHC TRACK...ONLY THE ECMWF              
INSISTS ON THE STORM EMERGING OFF THE SE COAST. FAY MAY START TO                
HAVE AN INDIRECT IMPACT ON THE REGION AS EARLY AS WED WITH PLENTY               
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE STORM.                
THE MOIST SRLY FLOW WILL INTERACT WITH COLD FRONT DROPPING IN FROM              
THE N...RESULTING IN INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES WED. BECAUSE THERE                
IS SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE PERIOD WILL                
HINGE ON WHERE FAY GOES...HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO              
THE LONG TERM FORECAST/GRIDS. BEST CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE ON                    
THU/FRI BUT COULD LINGER INTO SAT IF FAY IS SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF                 
THE AREA AS SOME GUIDANCE SUGGEST.                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                      
THERE IS A LITTLE MVFR FOG AT THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING BUT IT                 
SHOULD BE GONE BY 13Z OR SO WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. SHOWERS                 
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS INLAND AREAS AND                
VCTS IS NOTED IN ALL TERMINALS BY 18Z. PILOTS SHOULD BE PREPARED                
FOR CONVECTION NEAR AREA TERMINALS FROM THE PRESENT TIME THROUGH                
SHORTLY AFTER 00Z WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY POSSIBLE IN THE 16Z-              
22Z WINDOW.                                                                     
OUTLOOK THOUGH THURSDAY...THE EARLIEST IMPACT THAT T.S. FAY WOULD               
HAVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS WILL BE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.                 
OTHERWISE THROUGH THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS            
EACH DAY.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                  
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...LIGHT NE TO E WINDS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT              
WITH SEAS 3 FT OR LESS.  NO FLAGS.                                              
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                                    
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...LIGHT NE FLOW OVER THE WATERS EARLY MON AS                  
DISSIPATING BOUNDARY LINGERS IN THE AREA. SFC FLOW GRADUALLY                    
GAINS MORE OF AN ERLY COMPONENT AS SFC HIGH TRIES BUILDING IN FROM              
THE E. TROPICAL STORM FAY MAY HAVE A SECONDARY IMPACT...MAINLY A                
PINCHED GRADIENT AND SWELLS FROM THE CIRCULATION OF FAY LATE IN                 
THE PERIOD. FAY WILL ALSO SPREAD PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE                  
REGION...INCREASE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE WATERS ON TUE.               
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                       
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...THE IMPACT TROPICAL STORM FAY WILL HAVE ON THE              
WATERS IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT BASED ON THE LATEST NHC TRACK S TO              
SE FLOW WED WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY AND BECOME MORE              
SRLY. AT THIS TIME SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 25 KT...BUT              
ANY EWRD SHIFT IN THE TRACK OF FAY IS GOING TO RESULT IN AN                     
INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS. WITH FAY WELL INLAND ONSHORE FLOW WILL                 
CONTINUE THROUGH THU WITH SPEEDS DECREASING LATER THU. SEAS 2 TO 4              
FT WED WILL INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FT BY THU.                                       
&&                                                                              
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SC...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...III                                                                  
NEAR TERM...RGZ                                                                 
SHORT TERM...III                                                                
LONG TERM...III                                                                 
AVIATION...RAN                                                                  
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX                                  
627 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CIGS/VSBYS FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD                
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR                  
CONDITIONS CAN NOT BE RULED-OUT WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.                       
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR I-35                    
TERMINALS.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
INVERTED SFC TROF ANALYZED FROM LAREDO TO HONDO TO LLANO AT                     
MIDNIGHT. A CONVERGENCE WAS ALSO ANALYZED FROM JUST NORTH OF                    
LAREDO EAST TO JUST NORTH OF CORPUS CHRISTI. THE INTERSECTION IS                
KEEPING RAIN GOING ACROSS MAVERICK AND DIMMIT COUNTIES. THE RUC                 
PICKS UP ON THE CONVERGENT BOUNDARY AND HAS IT STATIONARY THIS                  
MORNING. MODELS NOT DOING TOO GOOD WITH SURFACE FEATURES BECAUSE                
OF THE MANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. HOWEVER, THE UPPER LEVELS ARE ALL               
INITIALIZED WELL WITH 00Z UPPER AIR PLOTS.                                      
BETTER ORGANIZED RAIN WILL SHAPE UP TODAY WITH THE 700MB TROF MOVING            
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE. THE RIO GRANDE REGION IS EXPECTED              
TO RECEIVE EXCESSIVE RAIN TODAY LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.  THE             
700MB TROF IS PROGGED TO DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA OVER THE                 
NEXT 3 DAYS. WITH THE TROPICAL AIR OVER US, LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN                  
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE WITH US THROUGH AT                
LEAST TUESDAY. WILL START A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WESTERN HALF              
OF THE CWA WHERE RAIN SHIELD IS PERSISTING (ROUGHLY ALONG AND WEST              
OF A LLANO TO PEARSALL LINE). IT IS LIKELY THE WATCH WILL NEED                  
RECONFIGURING AS THIS RAIN EVENT EVOLVES.                                       
BY MIDWEEK (WEDNESDAY) THE UPPER TROF AXIS IS PROGGED TO SLICE                  
NORTH-SOUTH ALONG I-35 WITH HIGH P.W.`S OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF               
THE CWA, KEEPING THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING RAINS GOING EAST OF                 
I-35.                                                                           
SOIL MOISTURE SHOULD BE REPLENISHED BY LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.                
THEREFORE, MAX TEMPS WILL HOVER NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE                   
WEEKEND.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              88  69  88  70  84 /  80  80  80  60  60         
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  87  69  89  68  84 /  80  80  80  60  60         
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           87  72  86  71  88 / 100 100  70  50  50         
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       87  72  86  71  85 /  90  90  80  60  60         
&&                                                                              
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING                     
COUNTIES: BANDERA...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FRIO...GILLESPIE...KERR...               
KINNEY...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...               
ZAVALA.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
06/11/PM                                                                        
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO                                              
325 PM MDT SUN AUG 17 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TIGHT CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND A VERTICALLY STACKED            
UPPER LOW NOW OVER NRN TELLER COUNTY HAS CONTINUED TO WRAP LOW AND              
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWESTWARD OVER                 
SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE DENVER/BOULDER WFO COUNTY WARNING                 
AREA. THIS VORTEX IS PROGGED TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OVER THE                
I-25 URBAN CORRIDOR SOUTH OF THE PALMER DIVIDE BY EARLY THIS                    
EVENING. LAPS AND RUC CAPE...VERTICAL VELOCITY AND STABILITY FIELDS             
INDICATE A BAND OF MODERATE LIFT AND INSTABILITY ACROSS DOUGLAS...              
ELBERT AND LINCOLN COUNTIES WHERE MULTI-CELL STORMS HAVE ALREADY                
ERUPTED. ALTHOUGH STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO RETRAIN THEIR UPDRAFTS AS            
THEY MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD SEE THE PRESENT CONVECTION             
IN DOUGLAS AND ELBERT COUNTIES SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD NEXT FEW HOURS               
ALONG AN AXIS OF RAISED INSTABILITY. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE              
DUE TO RELATIVELY STRONG LOW TO MID-LEVEL SHEAR IN THE AREA. FUNNEL             
CLOUDS...LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY A WEAK                
TORNADO OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS THRU 01Z/MON.             
MEANWHILE HAVE ALSO SEEN SPOTTY CONVECTION FROM TIME TO TIME OVER               
THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE            
STATE...BUT OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT ONTO              
THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS...SHOULD SEE A STEADY DECREASE IN CLOUD                 
COVER AND SHOWER/TSTORM COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE              
850-500MB FLOW SHIFTING TO A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT. HOWEVER...               
LIGHT BNDRY LAYER FLOW WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO SCOUR OUT SURFACE                
MOISTURE WITH WIDESPREAD WET/SATURATED SOILS. THEREFORE COULD SEE               
PATCHY FOG FORMING AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPLY IN LOW LYING AREAS EAST OF            
THE I-25 URBAN CORRIDOR.                                                        
ON MONDAY...WITH THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVING AWAY FROM COLORADO...              
THE DAY MAY BEGIN WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND                
PATCHY FOG AROUND. HOWEVER...AS WINDS ABOVE THE MIXING LAYER TURN TO            
A MORE NWLY COMPONENT SHOULD SEE DRIER AND AND WARMER AIR SPREADING             
OVER THE AREA.  PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK MUCH LOWER ON MONDAY...              
WITH ONLY ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON T-STORMS OVER THE MTNS            
AND FOOTHILLS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70...AND PALMER DIVIDE. SHOULD SEE              
SFC TEMPS ACROSS THE CWFA SOME 10-15F WARMER THAN THOSE TODAY.                  
.LONG TERM...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE                 
MONDAY EVENING WITH WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE FORECAST                  
AREA.  BY TUESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM SOUTHWEST OF THE              
STATE.  NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED ON TUESDAY...AND                    
WESTERLY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  IT GOES BACK TO                     
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER RIDGE                   
FLATTENS DUE TO A DECENT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED              
STATES MOVING EAST.  THE SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY FOR THE FORECAST AREA            
IS WEAK DOWNWARD THROUGH THE PERIODS.  THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW LOOKS            
TO BE A MIX OF NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS WITH SOME SOUTHERLY ENHANCEMENT            
THROWN IN.  FOR MOISTURE...MODELS HAVE SOME IN THE LOWER AND MID                
LEVELS MONDAY EVENING FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.  SAME FOR LATE             
DAY TUESDAY AND LATE DAY WEDNESDAY.  THE NAM SHOWS SOME LOW LEVEL               
MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY...TUESDAY...AND WEDNESDAY                       
OVERNIGHTS.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE IN THE 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH             
RANGE FROM  MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE HIGHER VALUES             
FURTHER EAST ON THE PLAINS.  FOR THE MOST PART...DEW POINTS STAY IN             
THE 50S F OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH ALL THE PERIODS.  THE THETA-E AXIS            
IS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO LATE MONDAY.  BY LATE DAY TUESDAY IT             
IS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL FORECAST AREA.  BY LATE DAY                     
WEDNESDAY...IT MIGRATES OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA.  THE LAPSE              
RATE FIELDS ON CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A PRETTY STRONG CAP IN THE MID               
LEVELS OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS LATE DAY MONDAY AND LATE DAY                     
TUESDAY.  IT IS THERE AGAIN WEDNESDAY BUT MAINLY OVER THE FAR                   
EASTERN FORECAST AREA AND IT`S ERODING BY LATE IN THE DAY.  THERE IS            
SOME CAPE MONDAY EVENING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...BUT IT`S            
PRETTY MINOR.  THERE IS BETTER CAPE OVER ALL THE FORECAST AREA LATE             
DAY TUESDAY...BEST IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...MINOR OUT ON THE            
PLAINS.  BY LATE DAY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS PRETTY DECENT CAPE OVER               
MOST AREAS.  FOR POPS...10%-20% WILL DO...WITH NONE OVER SOME THE               
PLAINS.  FOR TEMPERATURES...TUESDAY`S HIGHS ARE 1.5 - 3.0 C WARMER              
THAN MONDAY`S. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHS ARE 1-2 C WARMER THAN                       
TUESDAY`S.  FOR THE LATER DAYS...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS               
HAVE THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENING ON THURSDAY WITH A DECENT UPPER                 
TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES.  THE                  
TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY WELL INTO              
FRIDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES COOL OFF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  MOISTURE             
INCREASES SOMEWHAT FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.   SUNDAY LOOKS              
DRY AND WARMER.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DENVER METRO              
AREA THRU 01Z/MONDAY.  GUSTY WINDS...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL                 
BRIEFLY PRODUCING MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS AT THE DENVER INTERNATIONAL               
AIRPORT. PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST            
OF THE DENVER METRO AREA. COULD SEE PATCHY FOG FORMING AROUND 10Z IN            
THE VICINITY OF DIA...ALL OF WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH CLEARING               
SKIES BY MID-MORNING.                                                           
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BAKER/RJK                                                                       
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
320 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008                                                      
...WATCHING THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM FAY CURRENTLY MOVING                 
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA...                                                
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS REVEALING A FAIRLY MESSY UPPER              
AIR PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. LONGWAVE RIDGING COVERS MUCH OF               
THE WEST...HOWEVER THE PERSISTENT CUTOFF UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO                 
SPIN IN PLACE OVER COLORADO PINCHING INTO THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS              
RIDGE. NO BIG SURPRISE TO FIND LONGWAVE TROUGHING FURTHER TO THE                
EAST COVERING THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION AS THIS HAS BEEN A                
SEMI-PERMANENT FEATURE THIS SUMMER. THIS TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS               
ITS AXIS DOWN THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS TO THE NORTHEAST GULF               
COAST. PERIODIC PIECES OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY CONTINUE TO ROUND THE                
BASE OF THIS TROUGH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA WITH ONE SHORTWAVE                 
EXITING OFF THE GA COAST EARLIER TODAY AND ANOTHER AND ANOTHER                  
WEAKER SHORTWAVE OVERHEAD AT THIS TIME.                                         
AT THE SURFACE...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WITH A LIGHT              
AND VARIABLE MEAN 1000-700MB FLOW. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO               
BE MORE INFLUENCED BY SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND SCT SHOWER/STORM              
OUTFLOW THAN BY THE GRADIENT. A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN ACROSS THE                
AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BALANCE TIPPED MORE TOWARD THE CLOUDS                
SIDE. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS                
PUSHING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THESE SHOWERS ARE OF THE                  
"POPCORN" VARIETY AND SHOULD BE BRIEF IN DURATION AS THEY COME                  
OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.                              
&&                                                                              
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                         
MESSY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES OVERHEAD INTO TONIGHT. GLOBAL               
MODELS SHOWING THE TROUGH BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT A BIT FURTHER TO THE            
NORTHEAST WITH THE FLOW FLATTENING OUT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SCT                 
EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS ANTICIPATED TO FADE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET             
WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...LEAVING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY              
SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT.                                       
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WEAK DURING MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST                
BETWEEN TROUGHING TO OUR NORTHEAST AND A CUTOFF LOW DROPPING SOUTH              
FROM COLORADO INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN                
ALSO REMAINS VERY WEAK WITH ANOTHER DAY OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE                   
1000-700MB FLOW. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC INFLUENCES WILL             
FORECAST A POP DISTRIBUTION CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS PARTICULAR            
FLOW REGIME. WILL BE GOING WITH A GENERAL CHANCE POPS RANGE WITH 40             
TO 50% COVERAGE FAR NORTH AND 50-55% COVERAGE SOUTH. HIGH TEMPS IN              
THE MIDDLE 80S TO NEAR 90.                                                      
GENERAL PATTERN HOLDS INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL AND               
SURFACE FLOW AND NO SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC FEATURES OVERHEAD. ONCE                
AGAIN EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS WILL FADE AFTER SUNSET WITH A MAINLY               
DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SITUATION WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE LATE MONDAY                
NIGHT AND MORE INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT ONCE                
AGAIN BEGINS TO TIGHTEN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND                  
TS/HURR FAY TO OUR SOUTH. CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS FAY A STRONG            
TROPICAL STORM OR CAT 1 HURRICANE BY THIS TIME APPROACHING THE                  
SOUTHWEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.  THE STRENGTH AND EXACT               
POSITION OF FAY WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW MUCH THIS GRADIENT TIGHTENS             
AND WILL BE OF MOST CONCERN (DURING THIS TIME FRAME) FOR OUR COASTAL            
WATERS. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...EXCEPT                 
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ALONG THE COAST.                                            
FORECAST FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF TUESDAY BEGINS TO BECOME A BIT               
LOWER CONFIDENCE ALTHOUGH MOST IMPACTS (IF THERE ARE ANY) FROM FAY              
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH INTO THE EARLY EVENING. MAV                
POPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 55 TO 65% LIKELY RANGE FOR TYPICAL SUMMER             
CONVECTION NOT ASSOCIATED WITH FAY. WILL RUN THIS FORECAST A BIT                
BELOW THE MAV NUMBERS IN THE 45 TO 55% CHANCE RANGE FOR SCT                     
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.               
DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH/POSITION AND ORGANIZATION OF FAY WE COULD             
EXPERIENCE SOME MINOR CONVECTIVE SUPPRESSION ON THE OUTSKIRTS OF THE            
CIRCULATION AND HENCE THE SLIGHT DROP OFF FROM THE MAV POPS...                  
HOWEVER WITH THE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINLY SURROUNDING THIS STORM WILL              
NOT DEVIATE A WHOLE LOT FROM GUIDANCE. ALSO...ALTHOUGH GENERALLY                
TEND TO SHY AWAY FROM THE NAM IN ITS LATER HOURS...IT SHOULD BE                 
NOTED THAT THE LATEST RUN CYCLE IS SHOWING SIGNIFICANTLY LESS                   
CONVECTION ON TUESDAY OVER OUR ZONES. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER            
80S AND LOWER 90S.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...LATEST GUIDANCE                     
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A RATHER LARGE SPREAD IN TRACK FORECASTS FOR              
FAY INTO WEDNESDAY. OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS THE STORM TRACK TO                  
OUR EAST AND KEEPS US ON THE WEAKER SIDE OF A WEAKENING TROPICAL                
STORM. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE IMPACTS TO OUR LOCAL AREA AT A MINIMUM              
WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN                 
ACROSS THE EASTERN BIG BEND. HOWEVER...WITH MUCH OF OUR AREA                    
REMAINING IN THE CONE OF UNCERTAINLY...A CLOSE EYE SHOULD BE KEPT TO            
FUTURE FORECASTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FLORIDA BIG BEND                        
COASTLINE...JUST IN CASE THE TRACK SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST. AS FAY              
PROGRESSES NORTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY... TROUGH/SHORT WAVE COMING OUT OF            
THE ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL BE LOCATED IN THE               
OK/TX REGION ACCORDING TO GFS. THIS SYSTEM IS A MAJOR PLAYER ON WHAT            
FAY WILL GO. ACCORDING TO THE GFS...THIS TROUGH GETS CAUGHT UP WITH             
ANOTHER APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND RAPIDLY               
FILLS AND PUSHES NORTHEAST. THE REMNANTS OF FAY REMNANT DOES MUCH               
THE SAME. THE 00Z EURO HAS ANOTHER SOLUTION. FAY TURNS QUICKLY                  
NORTHEAST AND GETS STUCK FOR A FEW DAYS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AS A             
RIDGE TO THE NORTH BLOCKS ITS PATH. IN OUR AREA...THE GFS SOLUTION              
HAS AN UPPER RIDGE SETTLING IN BEHIND FAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ON                  
SUNDAY...ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM APPROACHES SOUTH FLORIDA AS A MID              
LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WHICH MAKES ANOTHER HEAVY            
WORK SCHEDULE IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. THE GFS AND EURO ARE                    
SIMILAR...BUT THE GFS SHOWS MORE A VIGOROUS TROPICAL SYSTEM AS WELL             
AS MID LATITUDE SYSTEM.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
LIGHT GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS LOW THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT                
HOUR ON MONDAY. ATTENTION WILL THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT TO TROPICAL STORM            
OR HURRICANE FAY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LATEST OFFICIAL            
TRACK FORECAST BRINGS FAY TO THE EAST OF OUR COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY             
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY KEEPING OUR WINDS GENERALLY OFFSHORE. WILL HAVE            
TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS AND SWELL OVER THE                  
EASTERN LEGS DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...FAY WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED            
CLOSELY AS A SHIFT IN THE TRACK TO THE WEST WOULD BRINGS THE                    
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS TO THE COASTAL WATERS.                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED ESPECIALLY FL                
TERMINALS WITH TEMPOS FOR TSTMS AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ALL TERMINALS...            
ENDING AROUND 22Z. THEN VFR ON TAP. AFT 09Z...PREVAILING MVFR FOR               
VSBYS/LIGHT RAIN FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT PERHAPS KPFN AND KABY. AFT            
14Z VFR THEN TSTMS COMMENCING AFTER 17Z WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS                    
POSSIBLE IN STRONGER STORMS.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  70  89  71  90  73 /  20  50  20  50  40                           
PANAMA CITY  73  87  74  89  75 /  20  50  20  50  40                           
DOTHAN       68  88  70  90  71 /  20  50  20  50  30                           
ALBANY       69  90  70  91  71 /  20  50  20  50  30                           
VALDOSTA     69  90  70  90  72 /  20  50  20  50  50                           
CROSS CITY   71  89  71  90  73 /  30  50  20  60  50                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE...MROCZKA                                            
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...BLOCK                                                   
LONG TERM...WATSON/MROCZKA                                                      
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
217 PM MDT SUN AUG 17 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ANOTHER COOL AND WET DAY ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION AS A SLOW                  
MOVING LOW TRANSLATES SOUTH OVER THE COLORADO ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES             
ARE RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S. RADAR AND SATELLITE                
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE RAIN STREAMING INTO THE AREA WITH A              
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. COULD SEE UP TO ANOTHER 1/4-1/2 INCH OF             
RAIN THIS AFTERNOON IF UNDER A MORE INTENSE SHOWER.                             
NAM/GFS KEEPS THE LOW MOVING SOUTH AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY SEE THE                
ATMOSPHERE BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW                        
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW MORNING BUT AM NOT EXPECTING A                
REPLAY OF TODAY`S PRECIPITATION.                                                
CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE FCAST AREA MONDAY...AND                
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE...DO NOT EXPECT THE AREA TO WARM            
UP VERY FAST. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID            
70S OVER EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S             
OVER GRAHAM AND NORTON COUNTIES.                                                
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH                     
PRESSURE SETS IN PLACE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS WARMER AIR INTO                
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES COULD REACH NEAR 90 DEGREES FRIDAY                     
AFTERNOON...BEFORE ANOTHER COOL DOWN OCCURS. ANOTHER PACNW LOW                  
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND A              
COLD FRONT WILL DRAPE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.              
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TIMING AS IT COULD IMPACT THE DAYS              
HIGH TEMPERATURES. WITH THE FRONT WILL SEE THE POSSIBILITY FOR                  
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AND BE                   
COOLER AGAIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FCAST.                       
BURTIS                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
1129 AM MDT SUN AUG 17 2008                                                     
FOR THE 18Z TAF...UPPER LOW OVER COLORADO CONTINUES TO BRING                    
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INTO BOTH TERMINALS. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE               
-RA AT KGLD THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. RADAR TRENDS SHOWING                
DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF KMCK MOVING TO THE NORTH SO HAVE INSERTED                  
TEMPO MVFR -RA GROUP TO COVER. WILL SEE VARIABLE CONDITIONS                     
RANGING FROM VFR TO MVFR AS PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT KGLD. BY             
TONIGHT...UPPER LOW STARTS TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE OK/TX                
PANHANDLES BRINGING AND END TO PRECIP. RUC13 AND NAM BOTH HINTING               
AT FORMATION OF LOW STRATUS MONDAY MORNING...PARTICULARLY AT KGLD.              
HAVE MAINTAINED VFR CIGS FOR NOW BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE                       
REVISITED FOR THE NEXT TAF CYCLE.                                               
FOLTZ                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ090>092.                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WFO GOODLAND                                                                    
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
1137 AM MDT SUN AUG 17 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
144 AM MDT SUN AUG 17 2008                                                      
THE SLOW MOVING UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES IS PROGGED             
TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO TODAY. THIS WILL                
LEAD TO ANOTHER WET DAY WEIGHTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES AND                 
TRIED TO SHARPEN THE POP GRADIENT LEAVING ONLY AN ISOLATED MENTION              
ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA.                                  
STILL SOME CONCERN FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION NEAR THE COLORADO/KANSAS             
STATE LINE AREA WITH PWATS IN THE 1.25 INCH RANGE OR 140 PERCENT OF             
NORMAL/305K WIND STRMLNS/MIXING RATIO INDICATING 10-11 G/KG BEING               
ADVECTED NORTH ON EASTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER-LEVEL LOW. WILL KEEP               
THE FLOOD WATCH INTACT THROUGH TODAY WITH SUCH LOW 1 HR FLASH FLOOD             
GUIDANCE AND POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.                 
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW                
MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. KEPT SCATTERED POPS THROUGH 06Z               
WEIGHTED IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WITH NO MENTION PLANNED THEREAFTER.             
SOME CONCERN FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPING WITH WET GROUND/LIGHT                     
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF SFC LOW AND INCREASING                  
SUBSIDENCE SUPPORTING DIMINISHING CLOUDS/RADIATIONAL COOLING.                   
MONDAY-TUESDAY...MID/UPPER RIDGE COVERING MUCH OF THE WEST WILL                 
TRANSLATE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES BRINGING MORE               
TYPICAL WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE PRIMARY CHANGE FROM             
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO REMOVE POPS AND WARM TEMPERATURES A                
LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVELY IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES. SEASONABLE                     
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S ARE ANTICIPATED.                                  
DAYS 4 THROUGH 7...NO CHANGES.                                                  
MCGUIRE                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
1129 AM MDT SUN AUG 17 2008                                                     
FOR THE 18Z TAF...UPPER LOW OVER COLORADO CONTINUES TO BRING                    
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INTO BOTH TERMINALS. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE               
-RA AT KGLD THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. RADAR TRENDS SHOWING                
DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF KMCK MOVING TO THE NORTH SO HAVE INSERTED                  
TEMPO MVFR -RA GROUP TO COVER. WILL SEE VARIABLE CONDITIONS                     
RANGING FROM VFR TO MVFR AS PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT KGLD. BY             
TONIGHT...UPPER LOW STARTS TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE OK/TX                
PANHANDLES BRINGING AND END TO PRECIP. RUC13 AND NAM BOTH HINTING               
AT FORMATION OF LOW STRATUS MONDAY MORNING...PARTICULARLY AT KGLD.              
HAVE MAINTAINED VFR CIGS FOR NOW BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE                       
REVISITED FOR THE NEXT TAF CYCLE.                                               
FOLTZ                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ090>092.                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
418 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR LOOP/RUC ANALYSIS REVEALS A BROAD RIDGE FM WEST COAST               
INTO CNTRL PLAINS WHILE A TROUGH LINGERS OVER ERN CANADA INTO NEW               
ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. NW FLOW BETWEEN THESE LARGE SCALE              
FEATURES BRINGING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM               
NRN ONTARIO SOUTH TOWARD THE UPR GREAT LAKES. MODELS INDICATE  THIS             
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPR GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT AND            
EARLY MONDAY. SO FAR...RADAR LOOP SHOWS ONLY SOME ISOLD SHRA OVER               
LUCE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME                       
CONVERGENCE ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE            
LOWER 60S CONTRIBUTING TO SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 1000/KG. MID-LVL                 
RIDGING APPEARS TO HAVE REST OF CWA FAIRLY WELL CAPPED.                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...                                             
AS SHORTWAVE OVR ONTARIO DIVES NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR...FRONTAL SYSTEM             
MOVES ACROSS THE FCST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. PCPN CHCS             
ARE UNCERTAIN AT BEST WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH IS REFLECTED IN VERY               
LOW POPS IN MODEL MOS GUIDANCE. THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE BEST                    
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND STEEPEST MID-LVL LAPSES ARE WELL EAST OF FCST               
AREA WHEN FRONT ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT. ALSO GIVEN LATE ARRIVAL WITH              
FRONT...MUCAPES ONLY 100-200 J/KG. WITH ABOVE MENTIONED UNFAVORABLE             
FACTORS FOR PCPN...HAVE DECIDED TO TRIM BACK POPS TO SLIGHT CHC LATE            
TONIGHT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE NRN TIER COUNTIES WITH 30 PCT                
OVER LUCE COUNTY. WENT WITH JUST SLIGHT CHC FOR MON MORNING ACROSS              
THE CWA AS FRONT MOVES ACROSS AREA AND THEN LEFT A LINGERING SLIGHT             
CHC OVER MNM COUNTY IN THE AFTERNOON.                                           
SW WINDS AND HIGH TD WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO STAY GENERALLY ABV MOS                 
GUIDANCE. KEPT GOING FCST OF LOW TO MID 60S WITH WARMEST TEMPS FOR              
DOWNSLOPING AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.                                          
LOWERED HIGH TEMPS SOME FOR MON AS WINDS SHIFT NE BY LATE                       
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. DID NOT GO TOO COLD FOR MON AS 850 MB                  
THERMAL TROF LAGS BEHIND SFC COLD FRONT BUT DID LOWER TEMPS TO LOWER            
70S OVER NRN TIER AND UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F SOUTH.                            
.LONG TERM (MON NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUN)...                                      
MON NIGHT THROUGH WED...QUIET PERIOD IN STORE FOR UPPER MI AS HIGH              
PRESSURE DROPS DOWN OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE AREA BEHIND                  
MONDAYS COLD FRONT. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW                
INTO THE CWA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 0.60             
OF AN INCH BY 06Z (ABOUT 65 PCT OF NORMAL). THEREFORE A COOL NIGHT              
IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT                 
INLAND. LOWERED LOWS TOWARDS THE COOLER MET AND 00Z MEX COOP                    
GUIDANCE. IN ADDITION...GIVEN THE COOL TEMPERATURES AND THE WARMER              
LAKES...ADDED PATCHY FOG TO AREAS WITH LIGHT WINDS. WIND FLOW IS                
GENERALLY EAST TO SE ON TUE AS THE HIGH CENTERS ITSELF OVER EASTERN             
LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS MEANS COOL READINGS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR...THOUGH            
NOT ALL TOO COOL SINCE THE NEARSHORE AREA OF LAKE SUPERIOR IS                   
RELATIVELY WARM THIS TIME OF YEAR. 850MB TEMPS IN THE 9-12C RANGE               
(WARMEST WEST) SUPPORTS HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S...WITH READINGS IN              
THE UPPER 60S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. TUE NIGHT IS A BIT TRICKY WITH THE            
FORECAST AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO SET UP...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE              
WEST HALF. IN FACT...MODELS SHOW WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN ACCAS DECK               
DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST HALF AFTER MIDNIGHT. NEITHER THE NAM/GFS               
PRODUCE ANY PCPN...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE SINCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER              
IS QUITE DRY AND THE AIRMASS ABOVE THE ACCAS DECK IS CAPPED. SO NO              
POPS NEEDED. THESE MID CLOUDS COMBINED WITH A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL             
HELP TO HOLD TEMPS UP OUT WEST...BUT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS                
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT OUT EAST MEANS ANOTHER COOL NIGHT. WENT               
BELOW MOST OF MOS GUIDANCE...CLOSER TO THE 00Z MEX COOP GUIDANCE                
WHICH INDICATES SOME OF THE COLD SPOTS OF LUCE COUNTY DROPPING INTO             
THE MID 40S. GIVEN THE COOL READINGS...AGAIN ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG.             
OTHER THAN THE MID CLOUD ON WED WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE                
THROUGH THE DAY...THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUN. WITH 850MB TEMPS               
CLIMBING TO 14-17C BY 18Z...HIGHS SHOULD BE 5-10 DEGREES F WARMER               
THAN TUE. COOLEST READINGS ON WED EXPECTED ON LAKE MI AND THE EAST              
SIDE OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA WHERE ONSHORE FLOW OCCURS.                       
WED NIGHT THROUGH SUN...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT            
ON THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...SHOWING THE RIDGING OVER THE CWA WED               
EVENING TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST...WHILE A TROUGH OVER THE                
PACIFIC NW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE 06Z              
GFS REMAINS THE MOST AMPLIFIED WITH THE TROUGH COMPARED TO THE 00Z              
ECMWF/UKMET...BUT WITH REGARD TO THE TROUGH AXIS AND THE COLD FRONT             
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH...THE 06Z GFS IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE             
00Z ECMWF. SINCE THE 00Z ECMWF LOOKS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO ITS 12Z                  
PREDECESSOR...AND HAS SOME CONTINUITY TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...               
HAVE DECIDED TO FOLLOW IT FOR THE EXTENDED. HPC HAS ALSO PREFERRED              
THE 00Z ECMWF. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE STILL REMAINS SOME                 
SPREAD IN THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLES ON THE SPEED OF THE UPPER                       
TROUGH...WITH SOME MEMBERS FASTER AND OTHER SLOWER THAN THE 00Z                 
ECMWF...BUT THE 00Z ECMWF IS PROBABLY A GOOD COMPROMISE. NEW 12Z                
ECMWF IS JUST SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN ITS 00Z RUN...WHILE THE 12Z GFS              
IS GENERALLY THE SAME.                                                          
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...DESPITE A              
SHRTWV MOVING ACROSS...SINCE THE WIND FLOW COMES OUT OF THE DRY HIGH            
PRESSURE AREA THAT MOVED TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA ON WED. DEWPOINTS              
ACTUALLY SHOULD MIX OUT INTO THE 50S...AND WITH 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING            
TO 16-18C BY 00Z FRI...THE AIR MAY BE CAPPED ANYWAY. WILL CONTINUE              
THE DRY FORECAST THROUGH FRI AS WELL...DESPITE THE 06Z GFS TRYING TO            
BRING UP WHAT APPEARS TO BE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SHRTWVS FROM                   
LOUISIANA. FRI MAY TURN OUT TO BE A VERY WARM DAY IF THE ECMWF DOES             
PAN OUT...AS IT SHOWS 850MB TEMPS AROUND 20C WITH INCREASING                    
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS. GFS WAS A BIT COOLER...WHICH COULD BE A                  
RESULT OF THE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SHRTWVS. RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION               
UPPER JET SUPPORT...COLD FRONT AND HEIGHT FALLS APPROACH THE CWA FRI            
NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...AND SOME CONVECTION SHOULD             
AT LEAST MOVE INTO THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI. THEREFORE ADDING                  
CHANCE POPS TO THE WESTERN CWA. THIS CONVECTION MAY WEAKEN SATURDAY             
MORNING...BUT MORE THAN LIKELY REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE            
FRONT ENCOUNTERS A LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. LOOKS LIKE DECENT             
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE...SO MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR SEVERE               
WEATHER. IF WE ARE LUCKY...THIS FRONT COULD BRING A DECENT AMOUNT OF            
RAIN TO THE AREA...SINCE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE PROGGED                  
AROUND 1.75 INCHES OR 200 PCT OF NORMAL. DRY SLOT MOVES IN LATER                
SATURDAY...BUT WILL BE REPLACED BY LOW CLOUDS FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN                 
MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLDER AIR MOVES IN. IN FACT...THE              
00Z ECMWF/06Z GFS SHOW 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO 4C ON SUNDAY. THIS               
LOOKS A BIT TOO COOL...BUT READINGS OF 6-9C MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE               
QUESTION. NEW 12Z ECMWF/GFS HAVE WARMED TO THESE READINGS.                      
THEREFORE...THE WAY IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW...EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF                  
CHANGE IN TEMPS FROM FRI TO SUN AS READINGS GO FROM ABOVE NORMAL TO             
BELOW NORMAL.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS                
LATE TONIGHT WITH A RATHER DRY WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. A COLD              
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO UPPER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND             
MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT                  
PROBABILITY IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT EITHER TAF SITE.                   
UPSLOPE NE FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT COULD BRING SOME HIGH               
MVFR CLOUDS INTO KSAW AFTER SUNRISE ON MONDAY.                                  
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM ONTARIO SHOULD CAUSE WSW WINDS TO                 
INCREASE ON LAKE SUPERIOR TO UP TO 25 KNOTS TONIGHT. EXPECT A RAPID             
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND THEN NE MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT                 
DROPS SOUTH. WIND SPEEDS MAY APPROACH 25 KT OVER SOUTHERN LAKE                  
SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AT OR BELOW 20 KT MON NIGHT AND                
STAY THAT WAY THROUGH TUE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST              
ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. AS THIS HIGH DRIFTS TO THE EAST TUE               
NIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO UP TO 25 KT...THEN DIMINISH            
TO BELOW 20 KT ON WED AS THE MARINE LAYER REESTABLISHES ITSELF.                 
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AGAIN WED NIGHT TO UP TO 25 KT THROUGH                 
THU...THEN EVEN HIGHER...UP TO 30 KT...ON FRI AS A COLD FRONT                   
APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN            
LAKE SUPERIOR FRI NIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST...BUT STILL               
BREEZY BEHIND IT.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...JV                                                        
LONG TERM...AJ                                                                  
AVIATION...JV                                                                   
MARINE...AJ                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
338 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...NRN MICHIGAN SITTING WITHIN WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING AND            
SFC HIGH PRESSURE THIS AFTERNOON. WARM TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY HIGH             
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S)                  
YIELDING MUCAPE VALUES UP NEAR 1000 J/KG OVER NE LOWER MICHIGAN (PER            
RUC ANALYSIS). TOOK AWHILE...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS FINALLY                 
GETTING GOING OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO.                  
LACKLUSTER LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE CBL (DUE TO ONGOING MID LEVEL WARM             
ADVECTION) MAY BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY TO BLAME FOR THE SLOW START TO             
MOIST CONVECTION.                                                               
NONETHELESS...EVERYTHING I HAVE LOOKED AT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS               
STILL SUGGESTS THAT FURTHER HEATING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD            
BE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE THIS             
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SO...PLAN ON CARRYING POPS              
ACCORDINGLY ACROSS NE LOWER AND A PORTION OF EASTERN UPPER                      
MICHIGAN...BASICALLY WHERE CU FIELD IS THE MOST PRONOUNCED. BEYOND              
THAT...HEALTHY CU FIELD ALSO NOTED OVER NRN WISCONSIN AND WESTERN               
UPPER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. MAY YET SEE SOME SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY            
DEVELOP THERE PARTICULARLY ALONG ANY LAKE MICHIGAN MARINE                       
BOUNDARIES. IF SO...ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY ULTIMATELY DRIFT ACROSS            
THE LAKE INTO NW LOWER MICHIGAN AT SOME POINT THIS EVENING. BUT THIS            
AREA APPEARS A BIT MORE CAPPED ALOFT THAN US AND GIVEN THE LACK OF              
ACTION THUS FAR PLAN ON LEAVING OUT POPS ACROSS NW LOWER MICHIGAN               
FOR NOW.                                                                        
AS FAR AS SEVERE WEATHER IS CONCERNED...RELATIVE LIGHT WIND FIELDS              
(30 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH 500 MB) WILL KEEP STORM ORGANIZATION AT               
BAY ALTHOUGH A FAIRLY DEEP MIXED LAYER (INVERTED-V LOOK) AND                    
RESPECTABLE CAPE PROFILE WILL SUPPORT SUB-SEVERE THUNDERSTORM GUSTS             
AND SMALL HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING.                                           
LATER ON...APPROACHING COLD FRONT SLIPPING OUT OF CANADA MAY BRING              
ANOTHER LOW END CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO UPPER MICHIGAN TOWARD              
MORNING.                                                                        
ADAM                                                                            
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG              
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THIS             
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION. NAM/GFS ARE             
IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT E-W ORIENTED FRONT WILL MOVE FROM             
ERN UPPER MI AT 1200 UTC TO SRN LOWER MI BY 00Z MONDAY EVENING. MID             
LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE THROUGH ONTARIO WILL SUPPLY A RATHER                
MODEST SHOT OF LARGE-SCALE LIFT -- MAINLY ACROSS FAR NRN AREAS.                 
MEANWHILE...8H THERMAL AXIS (WITH TEMPS AROUND +18C)...WILL LIKELY              
KEEP ATMOSPHERE CAPPED OFF UNTIL MIDDAY ACROSS SRN AREAS (PER MODEL             
SOUNDINGS). STILL...WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S AND SFC DEW POINTS             
IN THE LOWER 60S...EXPECT 500 TO LOCALLY 1000 J/KG MLCAPE BY MID                
AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-32 CORRIDOR. UPSHOT...SCATTERED                  
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL IMPACT AREAS OF N OF TVC-APN UNTIL MIDDAY...AND             
ACROSS ALL BUT ERN UPPER DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER NOT               
LIKELY...WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 20 KTS...AND FREEZING LEVELS             
AROUND 13 KFT.                                                                  
AS FRONT SAGS SOUTH...EXPECT SPOTTY CONVECTION TO LINGER DURING THE             
EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. NE WINDS AND DRIER AIR               
WILL FILTER INTO REGION DURING THE REST OF THE NIGHT BEHIND FRONT.              
PER MODEL SOUNDINGS AND NAM GUIDANCE...HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER A             
BIT ACROSS PARTS OF NE LOWER LATE MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUES -- DUE              
TO SHALLOW LAKE PROCESSES. WITH LAKE HURON WATER TEMPS NEAR +20C AND            
925 MB TEMPS NEAR +9C...COUPLED WITH TERRAIN INFLUENCES...SOME                  
SHALLOW LAKE CLOUDS SEEM POSSIBLE.                                              
TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE SAULT WILL DRIFT TO VICINITY OF                
LAKE HURON BY LATE AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM SAID LAKE CLOUDS EARLY OVER            
NE AREAS...EXPECT DRY AIR ADVECTION AND MIXING TO PRODUCE PARTLY TO             
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALL AREAS BY NOON. IT/LL BE A BIT COOLER...WITH              
MIXING TO NEAR 850 MB SUPPORTING HIGHS AROUND 70 E UPPER AND NE                 
LOWER...AND IN THE 70S ELSEWHERE.                                               
WEDNESDAY...DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL RESULT IN A GREAT DAY...WITH                
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES. 8H TEMPS IN THE TEENS WILL            
SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 80 AREAWIDE.                                               
EXTENDED PERIOD...THU THRU SUN...GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES AGREE THAT DRY             
WEATHER WILL LINGER INTO AT LEAST THUR...WITH RIDGING AT THE SURFACE            
AND ALOFT OVER THE NERN U.S.. RETURN FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF RIDGE WILL            
BEGIN TO ADVECT INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND BIG              
QUESTION IS WHEN INSTABILITY/FORCING WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR                     
CONVECTION LATE IN THE WEEK. GFS BRINGS A MID LEVEL IMPULSE NE INTO             
REGION FRI...THOUGH GFS ENSEMBLE DATA DOES NOT SUPPORT THIS                     
SCENARIO. ECMWF IS ALSO MUCH SLOWER WITH IMPULSE...SUGGESTING THAT              
CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SAT. THIS SLOWER SOLUTION NOW SEEMS              
MOST PLAUSIBLE...BASED LARGELY ON IMPACT OF TROPICAL SYSTEM OVER                
SERN U.S. WHICH MAY EFFECTIVELY SLOW SYSTEM MOVEMENT. SO...HAVE                 
OPTED TO KEEP DRY WEATHER GOING INTO FRI...WITH SHOWERS/STORMS                  
POSSIBLE SAT/SUN. TEMPTED TO DRY THINGS OUT FOR SUNDAY...WITH BOTH              
GFS AND ECMWF BRINGING A FRONT THRU EARLY IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...WITH            
ENSEMBLE DATA SUPPORTING A SLOWER PROGRESSION (CONSISTENT WITH                  
TROPICAL INFLUENCE) WILL TENTATIVELY KEEP RISK OF CONVECTION GOING              
INTO SUNDAY. SEASONABLY WARM LATE SUMMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED                  
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS FROM 80 TO 85 THU/FRI/SAT...AND                 
GENERALLY 75 TO 80 SUN.                                                         
SMITH                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...ISSUED AT 134 PM.                                                   
WITH CONTINUED HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION...JUST WAITING FOR                   
SHOWERS/THUNDER TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...                     
POTENTIALLY IMPACTING APN UNTIL EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR                  
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT. ON MONDAY...COLD FRONT                  
DROPPING THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN EXPECTED TO BRING BKN MID CLOUD (VFR)             
TO TVC/PLN/APN. WILL BE A RISK FOR SHOWERS/STORMS BUT MAINLY DURING             
MONDAY AFTERNOON.                                                               
ADAM                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
LH...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
342 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A STATIONARY FRONT LYING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES REGION WILL               
SLOWLY MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH INTO SOUTH CAROLINA BY TUESDAY AS HIGH            
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE            
HIGH WILL KEEP THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AND WILL ALSO HAVE SOME                   
INFLUENCE ON THE FUTURE MOVEMENT OF TROPICAL STORM FAY. FAY IS                  
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST OVER GEORGIA...STALL AND THEN               
DISSIPATE DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEK. THE REMNANTS OF FAY COULD              
RESULT IN SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION BY MID TO LATE WEEK.             
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE                
TRANSLATED EASTWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. GREATEST PCP AMOUNTS                
RUNNING FROM GEORGETOWN WILLIAMSBURG COUNTIES NORTH THROUGH COLUMBUS            
AND HORRY COUNTIES. SEA BREEZE WAS HOLDING OFF ANY PCP FROM THE                 
COAST...BUT LOOKS LIKE IT MAY START AFFECTING THE COASTAL AREAS                 
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. CONVECTION HAS LINED UP NICELY WITH                 
IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE MID LEVEL FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST               
RUC SHOWING SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING AROUND THE MID LEVEL TROUGH                 
THROUGH TONIGHT AND FINALLY PUSHING EAST BY MORNING. LEFT SOME LOW              
CHC POPS OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT MAINLY ONLY SLIGHT CHC             
ALONG THE COAST BY MORNING.                                                     
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE HOLDING THIS AFTERNOON WITH PCP WATER VALUES                
ABOVE 1.75 MOST AREAS. CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG MAINLY JUST              
ALONG THE COAST AND SOUTH OF AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOOKS LIKE              
SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR WILL MAKES ITS WAY INTO AREA AS                 
SHORTWAVE FINALLY PUSHES EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. COUNTING ON FINALLY                
GETTING RID OF THE SOLID DECK OF AC/CIRRUS BY MORNING. OVERALL                  
EXPECT SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DIMINISH THROUGH MIDNIGHT OVER MOST AREAS               
EXCEPT COASTAL SECTIONS WHERE CHC OF PCP WILL LINGER INTO THE                   
MORNING.                                                                        
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLEARING WE GET OVERNIGHT WILL MAKE THE                   
DIFFERENCE IN TERMS OF FOG AND LOW TEMPS. FOR NOW...MENTIONED SOME              
PATCHY FOG IN FORECAST MAINLY INLAND AREAS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT               
OVER COASTAL AREAS WHERE CLOUDS AND PCP MAY LINGER LONGER.                      
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                           
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION            
WILL WILL START TO SEE SOME DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA. SOME               
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DOES REMAIN OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AND A WEAK             
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WHICH COULD KICK OFF            
A SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON SO I WILL MENTION                 
AROUND 30 POPS ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT A COUPLE OF                  
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...MID 80S ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS WITH UPPER               
80S TO AROUND 90 INLAND. WILL KEEP WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PC SKIES FOR            
TUESDAY AS ENOUGH RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA TO SUPPRESS MUCH IN              
THE WAY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL                
REMAIN SOUTH OF SC AND ENOUGH MID TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR  MOVES                 
INTO THE REGION TO KEEP US DRY THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON SO I WILL               
DROP THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS THAT WE HAD IN THE FORECAST WITH                 
TEMPS AROUND THE SAME AS MONDAY MAYBE A DEGREE OR SO HIGHER..NOT                
EXPECTING TOO MUCH OF AN INCREASE CONSIDERING THE SUNNY SKIES SINCE             
WE WILL HAVE A NE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH. MOISTURE STARTS TO INCREASE             
ACROSS THE AREA LATER TUESDAY AS ANY INFLUENCES FROM FAY START TO               
MOVE NORTHWARD.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                        
AS OF 3 PM...THE EXTENDED IS ALL ABOUT THE TRACK OF TS FAY AND ITS              
POTENTIAL IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE WX.  LATEST NHC FORECAST TAKES THE             
CENTER FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...UP INTO THE                 
WESTERN CAROLINAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.                                    
WITH SFC AND UPPER RIDGING MAKING IT TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY               
WEDNESDAY...A DEEP E-SE FETCH WILL SET UP OVER THE CAROLINA COAST               
AND COULD SET THE STAGE FOR FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP ACROSS PART OR            
ALL OF THE ILM CWA.  NOT REAL CONFIDENT IN THE QPF JUST YET AS IT               
REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHAT FAY WILL LOOK LIKE BY THEN...AND HOW BROAD              
OF A MOISTURE PLUME CAN BE PULLED INTO THE AREA. WILL CARRY MID TO              
HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM WEDNESDAY ALL THE WAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT THE               
TIMING AND PLACEMENT WILL NEED TO BE REFINED ON LATER SHIFTS.  IF               
THE NHC TRACK WORKS OUT THEN THE FRIDAY POP MAY BE OVERDONE AS THE              
REMNANT LOW WILL BE NORTH OF US BY THEN...BUT WITH THE SLOWER                   
PROGRESS ADVERTISED BY BOTH GFS AND ECMWF...A HIGHER THAN CLIMO POP             
IS STILL JUSTIFIED AT THIS POINT.  TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW                 
CLIMO BY DAY AND ABOVE BY NIGHT...AS CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL LIMIT               
DIURNAL RANGES.                                                                 
TOUGH TO SAY WHAT LIES BEYOND FOR NEXT WEEKEND...AS ALL THE                     
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE HANGING ON TO THE TROPICAL LOW MUCH LONGER              
THAN THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST. THIS ZFP ISSUANCE WILL REFLECT                  
CONDITIONS NEAR CLIMO...WITH SILENT/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH FLO AND LBT AT TAF             
TIME WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST CLEARING ANY TSTMS              
FROM INLAND TAF SITES BY 21Z. THIS LINE WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD                 
AFFECTING CRE AND MYR THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY ILM AFTER 20Z.                
ONCE THE IMPULSE IN THE MID LEVELS WHICH TRIGGERED THIS ACTIVITY                
MOVES THROUGH...SHWRS/TSTMS WILL DIMINISH BY LATER THIS EVENING.                
EXPECT MID TO HIGH CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND THROUGH                                
MIDNIGHT...DISSIPATING AS SOME DRIER AIR MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE MID             
TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH DAYBREAK. COASTAL TAFS                
WILL SEE THE CHC OF SHWRS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WITH PLENTY OF             
MOISTURE HOLDING ON OVERNIGHT EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT OF MVFR/VFR IN               
FOG AND LOW STRATUS AT COASTAL TAF SITES WITH IFR/LIFR AT FLO AND               
LBT MAINLY BETWEEN 08Z-12Z.                                                     
OUTLOOK THOUGH FRIDAY...DRIEST DAYS WILL BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY                  
WITH JUST SOME AFTERNOON SHWR/TSTMS POSSIBLE. THE EARLIEST IMPACT               
THAT T.S. FAY WOULD HAVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS WILL BE LATE WEDNESDAY            
INTO THURSDAY. THE EFFECTS OF FAY SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH FRIDAY.               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                  
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...SHORTWAVE MOVING NE ACROSS LOCAL WATERS THROUGH             
TONIGHT WILL HELP PROMOTE SOME SHWRS/TSTMS OVERNIGHT. AS FOR WINDS              
AND SEAS EXPECT LIGHT NE TO E WINDS TONIGHT WITH SEAS 3 FT OR LESS.             
&&                                                                              
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                                    
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ON MONDAY WILL BE                   
NEAR 10 KTS NEAR SHORE AND ABOUT 10 TO 15 KTS OFFSHORE KEEPING                  
SEAS IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LIGHT NORTHEAST               
WINDS ON TUESDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT AROUND BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST                
BY AFTERNOON WITH THE SAME SPEEDS AS MONDAY SO AGAIN WILL KEEP THE              
SEAS AROUND 1 TO 3 FEET ACROSS THE WATERS. DONT SEE ANY INFLUENCE               
YET OF FAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS                 
ACROSS THE WATERS ON MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES                    
ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL DROP POPS ON TUESDAY AND HOLD OFF ANY                  
MENTION OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL LATER IN THE PERIOD AS                
MOISTURE FROM FAY STARTS TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION.                     
&&                                                                              
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                       
AS OF 3 PM...THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST HINGES ON THE TRACK OF                
TS FAY. LATEST NHC TRACK REMAINS OVER LAND...SO WIND SPEEDS SHOULD              
BE QUITE MODEST. WILL KEEP A E-SE DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY               
AROUND 15 KT WED- THU. WITH NHC ADVERTISING A REMNANT LOW BY                    
FRIDAY...EXPECT A DIMINISHING TREND. WHAT IS LESS CERTAIN IS                    
WHETHER WE WILL SEE A VEERING TO SOUTH AS THE LOW GETS NORTH OF                 
OUR LATITUDE...OR IF WE STAY MORE E-SE WITH THE STRONG RIDGING                  
ALONG 40N.                                                                      
SEAS WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON HOW MUCH OF THE WIND FIELD FROM FAY IS              
OVER THE ATLANTIC.  HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO THE VARIOUS FLAVORS OF WNA              
WAVE GUIDANCE...WITH SEAS HOLDING 4-5 FT THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD.               
&&                                                                              
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SC...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...MAC                                                                  
NEAR TERM...RGZ                                                                 
SHORT TERM...MAC                                                                
LONG TERM...RAS                                                                 
AVIATION...RGZ                                                                  
MARINE...                                                                       
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX                                  
1132 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN WAKE OF SATURDAYS WEATHER               
SYSTEMS...THAT BROUGHT A FEW AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO SOUTH               
CENTRAL TEXAS.  THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS             
TODAY...AND A FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AGAIN...               
THAT CAUSES SOME LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING.  SOILS CONTINUE TO BE               
DRY...AS THE AREA CONTINUES TO BE IN A DROUGHT.  ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN            
TODAY COULD CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING ON POORLY DRAINED              
ROADS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT              
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR TODAY FROM 12Z TO 16Z TRENDS AND 12Z                  
FORECAST SOLUTIONS.                                                             
A BIG CHANCE IS COMING THIS WEEK.  A HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS EXPECTED TO            
DEVELOP MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD WETTING             
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.  AS THE LOW MOVES OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL               
TEXAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THIS RAIN MAKING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL                 
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WILL HAVE PLENTY OF              
MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A HEAVY RAIN EVENT.  THIS HEAVY RAIN EVENT                  
COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                  
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...AND HEAVIER                    
RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD DEVELOP MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN PLACES               
WHERE STORMS BECOME STATIONARY OR CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE SAME             
LOCATION. AS A RESULT...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED               
ON MONDAY FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THAT WILL ENCOMPASS ALL OF               
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE HILL COUNTRY. FOR NOW INDICATED THIS                
RAINFALL PATTERN IN A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.                                
BY THURSDAY AN APPROACHING AND MORE PROGRESSIVE TROF OVER THE NW U.S.           
IS FORECAST TO CAUSE HEIGHT FIELD FURTHER EAST TO LIFT WEAK LOW NNE             
AND FLATTEN OUT THE 700 TO 300 HPA TROF SOME OVER S. CNTRL TX                   
THURSDAY.  THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES GOING FOR THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY            
THE WEAK TROF WILL DRIFT SLIGHTLY EAST...SHIFTING THE CHANCE OF                 
RAIN TO THE EAST...FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.                
THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH FRIDAY EVENING.                    
A WEAK SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ALIGNED 700 TO 300 HPA TROF OVER                  
THE EAST PART OF THE AREA FRIDAY IS FORECAST TO DRIFT FURTHER EAST              
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS A WEAK RIDGE FROM 700 TO 300 HPA FORMS                 
OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING PARTLY CLOUDY...WARM               
AND HUMID DAYS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY OF NEXT WEEKEND. THE WEAK                
RIDGE MAY NOT LAST TOO LONG...AS IN THE MID PART OF THE WEEK OF                 
AUG. 24TH TO AUG. 30TH... ANOTHER S/W TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN               
FROM THE NORTH AND CAUSE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR THE MIDDLE                    
PART OF THAT WEEK.                                                              
IN THE MEANTIME...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH SOME              
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE...FOLLOWED BY MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS                 
FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2008/                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CIGS/VSBYS FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD                
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR                  
CONDITIONS CAN NOT BE RULED-OUT WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.                       
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR I-35                    
TERMINALS.                                                                      
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
INVERTED SFC TROF ANALYZED FROM LAREDO TO HONDO TO LLANO AT                     
MIDNIGHT. A CONVERGENCE WAS ALSO ANALYZED FROM JUST NORTH OF                    
LAREDO EAST TO JUST NORTH OF CORPUS CHRISTI. THE INTERSECTION IS                
KEEPING RAIN GOING ACROSS MAVERICK AND DIMMIT COUNTIES. THE RUC                 
PICKS UP ON THE CONVERGENT BOUNDARY AND HAS IT STATIONARY THIS                  
MORNING. MODELS NOT DOING TOO GOOD WITH SURFACE FEATURES BECAUSE                
OF THE MANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. HOWEVER, THE UPPER LEVELS ARE ALL               
INITIALIZED WELL WITH 00Z UPPER AIR PLOTS.                                      
BETTER ORGANIZED RAIN WILL SHAPE UP TODAY WITH THE 700MB TROF MOVING            
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE. THE RIO GRANDE REGION IS EXPECTED              
TO RECEIVE EXCESSIVE RAIN TODAY LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.  THE             
700MB TROF IS PROGGED TO DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA OVER THE                 
NEXT 3 DAYS. WITH THE TROPICAL AIR OVER US, LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN                  
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE WITH US THROUGH AT                
LEAST TUESDAY. WILL START A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WESTERN HALF              
OF THE CWA WHERE RAIN SHIELD IS PERSISTING (ROUGHLY ALONG AND WEST              
OF A LLANO TO PEARSALL LINE). IT IS LIKELY THE WATCH WILL NEED                  
RECONFIGURING AS THIS RAIN EVENT EVOLVES.                                       
BY MIDWEEK (WEDNESDAY) THE UPPER TROF AXIS IS PROGGED TO SLICE                  
NORTH-SOUTH ALONG I-35 WITH HIGH P.W.`S OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF               
THE CWA, KEEPING THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING RAINS GOING EAST OF                 
I-35.                                                                           
SOIL MOISTURE SHOULD BE REPLENISHED BY LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.                
THEREFORE, MAX TEMPS WILL HOVER NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE                   
WEEKEND.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              88  69  88  70  84 /  80  80  80  60  60         
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  87  69  89  68  84 /  80  80  80  60  60         
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           87  72  86  71  88 / 100 100  70  50  50         
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       87  72  86  71  85 /  90  90  80  60  60         
&&                                                                              
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
08/13/PM                                                                        
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
303 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY                                                 
CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM REMAIN THE SAME...SMALL RAIN                    
CHANCES MAINLY MONDAY AFTN INTO TUE AFTN AS WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT                
SLIPS SOUTHWEST INTO MN/WI. PERIOD TO REMAIN WARM...WITH SLOWLY                 
INCREASING HUMIDITY...BUT WARMEST TEMPERATURES LIKELY ONLY TOPPING              
OUT IN THE MID-UPPER 80S.                                                       
CURRENTLY...ANOTHER LARGE CUMULUS FIELD OVER MN/WI/IA TODAY AS                  
STRONG WARMING ON NORTH SIDE OF PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM                     
CONTINUES LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ON WESTERLY FLOW. THIS HAS                   
ALLOWED CONVECTIVE TEMP TO BE REACHED...BUT WITH PWATS RUNNING                  
1.0-1.2 INCHES...ABOUT NORMAL FOR MID AUGUST...AND LITTLE TO NO                 
CONVERGENCE...SHRA HAVE BEEN VERY ISOLD OVER ERN WI WHERE SFC                   
DWPTS HAVE POOLED INTO MID 60S. ELSEWHERE...MIXING ONCE AGAIN HAS               
TAKEN HOLD OF THE SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND TAKEN DWPTS               
BACK INTO THE 50S MOST AREAS OF MN/IA. STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH                  
EVIDENT IN GOES WATER VAPOR OVER ND WAS REALLY BEGINNING TO                     
DEAMPLIFY AS MODELS HAD SUGGESTED IT WOULD. MORE COMPLEX WAVE                   
ENERGY UPSTREAM IN MANITOBA/ONTARIO WILL REASSERT THE NERN CONUS                
TROUGH...AND IS SENDING A RATHER MARKED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH                  
INTO THESE PROVINCES OF CANADA...THOUGH LITTLE PCPN NOTED AT THIS               
TIME. COMPACT/POTENT CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER CO. STRONG               
TROUGH OUT OVER THE PACIFIC /SEE EXTENDED DISCUSSION FOR ITS                    
IMPLICATIONS TO FORECAST/.                                                      
TONIGHT...AS HAS BEEN THE SIGNAL IN RECENT SREF RUNS AND                        
OCCASIONAL GFS/NAM-WRF DATASETS...ISOLD SHRA/TSRA WILL REMAIN                   
POSSIBLE OUT OF AGITATED CUMULUS FIELD OVER CNTL/ERN WISCONSIN.                 
INITIATION COULD OCCUR AS FAR WEST AS MAUSTON OR RICHLAND                       
CENTER...BUT PREVAILING NWLY FLOW ALOFT WOULD TAKE ANY ACTIVITY                 
QUICKLY OUT OF FORECAST AREA...SO WILL GO DRY OVERNIGHT. EXPECT                 
STRONG ND WAVE TO CONTINUE TO DEAMPLIFY CONSIDERABLY AS IT CROSSES              
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND WITH LITTLE SURFACE REFLECTION OR                     
MOISTURE TRANSPORT...DON/T THINK ANY PCPN THREAT FROM THIS. LATEST              
BATCH OF NAM-WRF...NSSL-WRF...AND RUC13 ALL SUGGEST LITTLE NO PCPN              
THREAT OUT OF CUMULUS FIELD IN ARX FORECAST AREA.                               
MONDAY-TUESDAY...COMPLEX WAVE ENERGY MENTIONED ABOVE DRIVES                     
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT /SWWRD MOVING TAIL END OF SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT/             
TO SINK VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWEST INTO CNTL WISCONSIN/ECNTL MN MON                  
AFTN WITH RATHER STRONG CONVERGENCE AND LOCALIZED MOISTURE POOLING              
WHICH WILL BUMP MLCAPES INTO 1000 J/KG RANGE AT PEAK HEATING. FEEL              
PRETTY GOOD THAT SCT-BKN BAND OF STORMS WILL LIGHT UP ON FRONT IN               
EARLY AFTN AND SINK SOUTHWEST INTO THE I-94 CORRIDOR AT PEAK                    
HEATING. DEEP SHEAR IS VERY LOW...AND CAPE NOT ROBUST...SO AT THE               
VERY WORST...AN ISOLD DMG GUST/LARGE HAIL THREAT BUT SREF                       
CALIBRATED PROBS FOR SEVERE /17.03Z AND 17.09Z/ SHOWING ALMOST                  
NIL PROBABILITIES...IMPLYING A VERY ISOLD THREAT. BIGGEST THREAT                
MAY ACTUALLY BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN GIVEN WEAK WINDS ALOFT AND SLOW              
CELL MOVEMENT. THESE STORMS LOOK TO RIDE PRIMARILY ON FRONTAL                   
CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY IN DIURNAL CYCLE...SO EXPECT A QUICK                    
WEAKENING TOWARD 02Z...AND MODELS/PROBABILITIES AGREE WITH NO                   
TRANSPORT/ADVECTION TO KEEP STORMS GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. ON                 
TUESDAY...AS RIDGE BUILDS IN QUICKLY ALOFT...BOUNDARY QUICKLY                   
UNDERGOES FRONTOLYSIS. IN FACT...CONVERGENCE WEAKENS MARKEDLY INTO              
TUES AFTN. WINDS ALOFT EXTREMELY WEAK. BY AFTN...ONLY LINGERING                 
AFFECT OF FRONT MAY BE LOCALLY HIGH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS                   
WHICH MAY CONVECT IN ISOLD FASHION IF CONVECT TEMPS CAN BE                      
REACHED. MODELS CONTINUE TO SPECKLE VERY SMALL PCPN BLOBS ON WEST               
SIDE OF MS RIVER WHERE THE CONVERGENCE MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK                   
SOMETHING. IF SOMETHING DOES DEVELOP...HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH                   
ALMOST NO FLOW ALOFT TO MOVE THE STORMS. MAINTAINED THE RAIN                    
CHANCES MONDAY/MONDAY EVE IN THE DATABASE...AND ENHANCED THEM A                 
LITTLE MON AFTN OVER CNTL WISCONSIN NEAR FRONT. DID NOT INTRO RAIN              
THREAT FOR TUES GIVEN VERY WEAK SIGNALS OVERALL.                                
WEDNESDAY QUIET AS REMNANT FRONT DECAYS COMPLETELY AND LIFTS NORTH              
OUT OF AREA AS RIDGE ALOFT MAINTAINS WARM CONDITIONS.                           
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY                                            
THIS PERIOD MARKED BY STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY                 
USHERING CHANGE OF AIRMASS FOR END OF NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH                        
CONFIDENCE THERE...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THUR/FRI WITH CONTINUED              
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING OF OLD/DECAYING UPPER LOW OVER                   
OKLAHOMA. 17.12Z ECMWF/GEM/GEFS MEANS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT                  
REMNANT CUTOFF LOW WILL SINK FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT BY THE TIME IT               
BEGINS TO BE ABSORBED INTO STRONGER FLOW AHEAD OF SRN CANADA                    
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...IT WILL SHEAR NORTHEASTWARD IN WEAKENED STATE                
AND MAY BRING SOME SMALL RAIN THREATS TO MAINLY IL/WI THURS NIGHT.              
THIS WILL...HOWEVER...SERVE TO INCREASE THE DEEP MOISTURE WITH                  
PWAT OVER 1.5 INCHES SURGING NORTH AND BEING IN PLACE ON                        
FRIDAY...AND THE RECENT DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF RUNS SUGGEST THIS               
MOISTURE COUPLED WITH INCREASING DYNAMICS AND APPROACHING FRONT ON              
FRIDAY WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP ON FRIDAY WELL OUT              
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE. THERE WAS GOOD WFO              
CONSENSUS AND COLLABORATION TO REMOVE RAIN THREATS THURSDAY...AND               
FOCUS SMALLER THREATS ON THURSDAY NIGHT. MAINTAINED RAIN CHANCES                
FRI THROUGH SAT AS THE COLD FRONT MARCHES THROUGH. USING PURELY                 
DETERMINISTIC GFS RUNS...SEVERE THREAT FRI/FRI NIGHT NOT LOOKING                
OVERLY HIGH GIVEN DEEP BUT WEAK SLY FLOW /LITTLE DEEP SHEAR/ AND                
MODEST CAPE...THANKS TO RATHER MOIST SOUNDINGS...NOT TO MENTION                 
FRONTAL SURGE MAINLY OVERNIGHT. STRONG WIND FIELDS LAG THE FRONT. THINK         
SATURDAY HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF BEING LARGELY DRY THANKS TO RAPID                 
PROGRESSION OF HEIGHT FALLS/FRONT ACROSS THE NRN CONUS. THIS A                  
VERY WELL AGREED UPON SOLUTION IN MODELS/ENSEMBLES...BUT WILL HOLD              
ONTO SATURDAY RAIN CHANCES IN CASE FRONT SLOWS UP A BIT. AIRMASS                
FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK STARTING TO LOOK FALLISH...WITH                 
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DWPTS IN THE 40S SUN/MON GIVEN MOISTURE                
CONTENT BEHIND THE FRONT. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE                      
WRN/CNTL CONUS SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER LONG                  
SPELL OF QUIET WEATHER.                                                         
BINAU                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE DOMINANT THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE               
NEW WEEK...AS A SFC HIGHS CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE UPPER                       
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...A WEAK SURFACE                              
BOUNDARY...ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN            
CANADA...COULD BRING SOME AFT/EVENING SHRA/TS CHANCES MON AND TUES.             
THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO EXTEND WEST-EAST ACROSS MN/WI...AND WILL                  
HAVE AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND 850-700 MB LAPSE RATES NEAR            
8 C/KM TO WORK WITH. THESE CHANCES WILL LIKELY STAY WELL EAST                   
THOUGH...ACROSS EASTERN WI. EXPECT THE WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO                  
BECOME MORE EASTERLY ON TUES AS THE BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTH OF                     
KRST/KLSE.                                                                      
RIECK                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
159 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ONE                   
REACHED 52 DBZ BEFORE WEAKENING. RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES MLCAPE                  
RISING TO NEAR 2000 J/KG WITH LI/S FALLING TO -4. FORECAST                      
SOUNDING INDICATE MIXING SHOULD REDUCE DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY DURING               
THE AFTERNOON. MID LEVELS FAIRLY DRY ABOVE WEAK CAP AROUND 600                  
MB...SO DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED WITH ENTRAINMENT.                     
HOWEVER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE IF A STORM MAKES IT                   
ABOVE THE CAP WITH UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES FAIRLY STEEP. LATEST                 
LOCAL 4KM WRF BASED OFF 15Z LAPS SHOW ONLY SMALL ISOLATED AND                   
RELATIVE WEAK SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH CRAS              
ONLY HAVING A FEW GRID POINTS WITH A HUNDREDTH OR SO. 12Z WRF                   
BASED OF GFS AND 12Z NAM SHOWS NO THUNDERSTORMS OR SHOWERS.                     
EVEN WITH THE WEST SURFACE WINDS 1622Z MODIS SHOWS WARM UPPER                   
60 DEGREE LAKE MICHIGAN TEMPS NEAR SHORE...WITH NO COOLER UPWELLING             
SEEN. WOULD HAVE THOUGHT TEMPS WOULD HAVE BEEN COOLER...BUT WINDS               
ARE WEAK.                                                                       
WEAK UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER SPEED              
MAX TO REACH THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY MONDAY...WITH MAIN SHORTWAVE              
NORTHEAST OF THE LAKE SUPERIOR AREA. TRAILING WEAK COLD FRONT/WIND              
SHIFT WOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER              
LOW AND MID LEVELS BECOME A LITTLE DRIER...SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY              
PRECIPITATION...WITH POPS IN THE 10 TO 14 PCT RANGE.                            
MAIN EFFECT WILL BE A MORE NORTHEAST SURFACE WIND MONDAY                        
NIGHT...WITH EASTERLY FLOW TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING SOMEWHAT                    
COOLER TEMPERATURES...MAINLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.                                
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
BOTH 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF GRADUALLY BUILD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE                 
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY...AND                  
OVER THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY.                                                 
WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THURSDAY...WITH REMNANTS OF CENTRAL                   
ROCKIES UPPER LOW AROUND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. APPEARS SHORTWAVE IN                 
NORTHERN STREAM WILL BE TOO FAR NORTHWEST TO AFFECT THE FORECAST                
AREA...WHILE DECAYING UPPER LOW WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTHWEST. AS A                 
RESULT WILL REMOVE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. NOW NO                 
QPF ON 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF/OR 06Z DGEX.                                           
GFS PICKS UP THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW AND MOVES IT TOWARD                  
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. GFS NOW                   
LEANING TOWARD THE SLOWER AND WEAKER ECMWF ON THIS. HOWEVER GFS                 
STILL HAS A SOMEWHAT STRONGER SHORTWAVE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE               
MAIN SHORTWAVE EXITING THE NORTHWEST U.S.                                       
ECMWF NOW CLOSER TO GFS IN BREAKING DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE AS NORTHWEST           
U.S. SHORTWAVE MOVES TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY SATURDAY. WILL                    
GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF                            
SHORTWAVE...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH SOUTH                 
WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH...AND LOW MOVING                
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR EXPECTED THRU PERIOD. TCU AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL                          
DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.                    
&&                                                                              
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT/LONG TERM...06/HENTZ                                                      
AVIATION/MARINE...18/BORGHOFF                                                   
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
1249 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...INTRODUCED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR              
ALL OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. TCU NOW EVIDENT OVER CENTRAL AND                     
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WI. RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES MLCAPE RISING              
TO NEAR 2000 J/KG WITH LI/S FALLING TO -4 AS SHORT WAVE TRACKS                  
TOWARD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PRESENT AS               
WELL...HOWEVER SPEED SHEAR WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR ANY                    
SEVERE POTENTIAL.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...BORGHOFF                                                               
</pre> wi