AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
346 AM MST TUE FEB 12 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)                                                             
...MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN INCLUDES TEMPERATURES AND WINDS...                   
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED                
STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS 120+ KT NORTH/SOUTH JET                 
CORE TRANSLATES ACROSS THE ROCKIES.                                             
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FLOW ALOFT MODERATES AND BECOMES MORE WEST TO               
NORTHWEST AS JET CORE ACROSS THE ROCKIES TRANSLATES EAST INTO THE               
UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES            
ALOFT MODERATE WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE               
STATE AND EXPECT THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN            
TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS KEEPING SHALLOW MOISTURE             
LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTS WITH DECENT                  
OROGRAPHIC FLOW...THOUGH WITH POOR LAPSE RATES NOT EXPECTING MUCH               
MORE THAN A FEW FLURRIES. SOUNDINGS INDICATING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS            
OF 15 TO 25 MPH MIXING DOWN ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE THIS                 
MORNING HELPING TO WARM TEMPS INTO THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH WITH BOUTS            
OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING JET CORE...HAVE KEPT STAYED CLOSE             
TO MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...SAVE THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WHERE STRONG               
INVERSIONS LOOK TO PERSIST.                                                     
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)                                                      
...WARM AND BREEZY/WINDY BEFORE THE STORM ON WEDNESDAY...                       
...POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT WINTER WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY EVENING...     
WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY SHORT RANGE MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH                 
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN WITH RELATIVELY VIGOROUS WEST-SOUTHWEST              
FLOW OVER MUCH OF CO AHEAD OF THE DIGGING WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE               
GREAT BASIN. SHOULD SEE A RELATIVELY MILD/WARM DAY...BUT AT THE                 
EXPENSE OF BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS                     
FORECAST ACROSS NORTHEAST CO WITH LEE SIDE TROUGHING TRAILING                   
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HIGH CO PLAINS. 45-65KT AT H7 ALONG WITH                   
MODERATELY UNSTABLE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD PROMOTE BREEZY/WINDY             
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN CO. THE ONLY CHALLENGE WOULD BE              
A BKN-OVC CS/CI MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUD ALONG THE CO FRONT RANGE THAT               
COULD TEMPER THE TEMPERATURES IF THE WINDS DON`T PICK UP. IF                    
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...THEN                   
TEMPERATURES COULD GET INTO THE 30S APPROACHING 40F. CRITICAL FIRE              
WEATHER CONCERNS COULD BE INCREASING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN                
CO PLAINS...BUT MOST AREAS DID RECEIVE SNOWFALL LAST WEEK IN SOME               
CASES AROUND 12 INCHES. THE BLM FIRE WEATHER FUELS PAGE IS                      
SIGNIFICANTLY OLD ON THE INTERNET...SO THAT IS NO HELP. DAYTIME                 
MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20%...BUT WIND SPEEDS                   
MIGHT NOT REACH CRITICAL LEVELS. WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING ANY FIRE                 
WEATHER HEADLINES AND ADDRESS IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.                     
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THESE FORECAST PERIODS                 
CONTINUE TO BE TARGETED FOR A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH OR                  
JUST TO THE WEST OF CO. CERTAINLY A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN WHEN                
POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEEPEN AND DROP SOUTH-                           
SOUTHWESTWARD. THE 00Z/12 AND 06Z12 NAM-WRF IS THE WEAKEST WITH                 
THE SOLUTION...WHILE THE 00Z/12 ECMWF IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE                 
CLOSED LOW. THE 00Z/12 GFS IS SOMEWHERE IN-BETWEEN. GFS AND ECMWF               
HAVE BEEN DOING BETTER THAN THE NAM-WRF...SO WILL LEAN HEAVILY                  
TOWARDS THE GFS-ECMWF BLEND. A CLOSED LOW WILL LIKELY BE                        
DEVELOPING AROUND THE FOUR CORNERS AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND                
THEN DROP SOUTHWARD INTO NM DURING THURSDAY- THURSDAY EVENING.                  
MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO RACE THROUGH EASTERN CO.                
AGAIN...THIS PUTS SOUTHERN CO IN-BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. THE                       
POTENTIALLY GREATEST SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT...PER MODEL                          
KINEMATICS...COULD BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL CO DURING                
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. -15C LEVEL DROPS BELOW                 
500MB NEAR THE CLOSED LOW AND IN THE TROUGH OVERHEAD ALONG WITH                 
ADEQUATE MODEL PROJECTED UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN THIS LAYER.                  
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS SHOULD               
BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO 20S PROMOTING 20-1 TO 30-1 SNOW RATIOS.              
ALSO...KIND OF A MIDLEVEL "COL" SETTING UP OVER THE                             
MOUNTAINS...WHICH COULD HELP WITH DEFORMATION BANDING                           
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL CO. FURTHERMORE...AN                 
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AREA DEVELOPS JUST SOUTH OF THE "COL" OVER                    
NORTHERN NM AND THESE BANDS OF PRECIPITATION COULD MIGRATE                      
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NM/CO BORDER INTO THE SOUTHERN SAN LUIS                    
VALLEY/SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.               
THE POTENTIAL FOR 12-24 HOUR WARNING CRITERIA COULD BE THE EASTERN              
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS... SAN LUIS VALLEY...SANGRE DE CRISTO                        
MOUNTAINS...WET MOUNTAINS/VALLEY... AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS...SO                 
WILL GO WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH                 
THURSDAY EVENING. ADVISORY NUMBERS COULD OCCUR AROUND THE WARNING               
AREA...BUT TOUGH CALL. FOR TELLER...EL PASO AND PUEBLO                          
COUNTIES...A VERY DIFFICULT CALL AS THE CLOSE LOW WILL LIKELY BE                
TOO FAR WEST...HOWEVER THE COLD FRONT RACING DOWN THE PLAINS WILL               
BE A PLAYER. THE PALMER DIVIDE COULD SEE ADVISORY NUMBERS BY LATE               
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. POTENTIAL FOR QPF/SNOW AMOUNT                    
"SHADOW" TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN EL PASO AND NORTHERN PUEBLO                 
COUNTIES GIVEN THE STIFF NORTHERLY WIND AND LACK OF STRONG                      
MIDLEVEL UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME LOW                
LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION.                         
OVERALL...ALWAYS A VERY TOUGH CALL WITH THIS STYLE OF STORM TRACK.              
IF IT IS A LITTLE FURTHER WEST...THEN NOT MUCH SNOW. IF IT IS A                 
LITTLE FURTHER EAST...THEN SOUTH CENTRAL CO GETS SLAMMED WITH                   
SNOW. THIS IS WHAT A WINTER STORM WATCH IS FOR AND SHOULD BE                    
STRESSED.                                                                       
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST. METZE                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH ISOLATED                         
SNOW SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTS.                          
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY                   
EVENING FOR COZ078>080-087-088.                                                 
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY                      
EVENING FOR COZ064>075.                                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
23/17                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY                                               
153 PM EST TUE FEB 12 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME REGION THROUGH                  
TONIGHT...WITH PART OF IT REMAINING RIDGED DOWN INTO THE                        
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS.                            
MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MID-                  
SOUTH TODAY...AND MOVE TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY WEDNESDAY                 
MORNING. A COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE VIRGINIA CAPES WEDNESDAY            
AFTERNOON...AND LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME REGION                
BY THURSDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN TO OUR                   
SOUTH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE                  
TRI-STATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC HIGH                   
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN LIFTING                      
NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE                 
SOUTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY...TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY.                        
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADING THE REGION FROM SW TO NE THIS AFTERNOON AS             
SOLID ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH SUBSIDENCE               
INVERSION FROM HIGH TRANSITING OVERHEAD LIMITING MIXING TO AROUND               
950 MB AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE             
25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE (USED A BLEND OF NAM12 AND LAV HOURLY                     
TEMPERATURES FOR HOURLY TEMPS AND TO DERIVE HIGHS FOR TODAY). WITH              
PLENTY OF COLD AIR IN PLACE...AND MOISTURE STREAMING IN AT ALL                  
LEVELS...PRECIPITATION WILL START AS SNOW AT ALL LOCATIONS...WITH               
AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN ZONES BY LATE              
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON LATEST OBS/SAT/RAD/MOD TRENDS.                       
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...                             
GENERALLY LIKE SREF HANDLING OF LOW TRACK...NAM LOW LEVEL THERMAL               
FIELDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING (THOUGH THEY MAY NOT BE COLD                   
ENOUGH NEAR THE SURFACE AS SUGGESTED BY RECENT WARM FRONTAL                     
PASSAGES...AND THAT A ALL BUT MET GUIDANCE IS UNDER CUTTING THEM                
AT THE SURFACE...SO FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE COLDER GUIDANCE FOR                 
HOURLY TEMPERATURES. WHAT HAS WORKED BEST SO FAR THIS WINTER FOR                
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT...WITH COLD AIR DAMMING PRESENT              
HAS BEEN THE RUC13 2M TEMPERATURE...BUT THAT MODEL ONLY GOES OUT                
12 HOURS...SO COULD NOT USE FOR THIS FORECAST)...AND A BLEND OF                 
NAM/GFS/UKMET/ECMWF FOR QPF.                                                    
ENOUGH COLD AIR DOES NOT WORK ITS WAY IN ALOFT TO CHANGE                        
PRECIPITATION FROM ALL SNOW UNTIL JUST AFTER                                    
MIDNIGHT...FORTUNATELY BEST FRONTOGENIC AND ISENTROPIC FORCING                  
DOES NOT COME IN UNTIL AFTER THEN (EXCEPT ACROSS FAR NW)...SO SNOW              
SHOULD GENERALLY BE LIGHT TO MODERATE...WITH SUB WARNING                        
AMOUNTS...AND SUB ADVISORY AMOUNTS OVER THE CITY AND LONG ISLAND.               
COULD ACTUALLY END UP WITH A COUPLE HOURS OF SLEET BEFORE CHANGING              
TO FREEZING RAIN...HOWEVER NOT CONFIDENT IN THIS...SO OPTED TO                  
REFLECT A BIT MORE FREEZING RAIN IN THE FORECAST. RESULT IS UPPED               
WINTER STORM WATCH TO A WINTER STORM WARNING OVER ORANGE AND                    
WESTERN PASSAIC (2-5" SNOW AND AROUND 1/2 INCH OF                               
ICE)...ESPECIALLY WHEN NOT EXPECTING TEMPS TO GET ABOVE FREEZING                
UNTIL AFTER 12Z. WENT WITH AN ADVISORY EVERYWHERE ELSE EXCEPT NYC               
AND LONG ISLAND...WHERE JUST DO NOT HAVE 80 PERCENT CONFIDENCE IN               
A GLAZE OF ICE. BEST CHANCE FOR THAT IN THE NON ADVISORY AREA IS                
ACROSS THE BRONX AND NORTHERN MANHATTAN...DAY SHIFT CAN EVALUATE                
NEED TO EXPAND ADVISORY. CAME CLOSE TO ISSUING WARNING FOR                      
PUTNAM...BUT JUST ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY ON SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS...THAT                 
PLAYED AS SOLID ADVISORY...THOUGH COULD BE UPGRADED BY DAY SHIFT IF             
IT IS FELT THAT A HALF AN INCH OF ICE COULD BE REACHED.                         
WARM AIR SHOULD WIN THE RACE ULTIMATELY AND CHANGE ALL PRECIP TO                
RAIN BY MID MORNING (NW)...AND EVEN SOONER ELSEWHERE (THOUGH MIGHT              
BE A BIT TO FAST IN PUTNAM) WITH RISING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...EASTERN          
SUFFOLK WILL BE THE FIRST TO CHANGE OVER...WITH OTHER LOCATIONS                 
GOING OVER SE TO NW TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.                             
NOT ADDRESSED IN THE ZONES (BUT WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE HWO)...IS              
THE FLOODING POTENTIAL DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY (NOTE                 
STRONG OCEANIC INFLOW WITH IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND                       
FRONTOGENIC FORCING (ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN ZONES). SEE                        
HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR EXPECTED QPF AMOUNTS AND IMPACTS.                         
GFS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER IN IT DEVELOPING A TERTIARY COASTAL                
LOW...THAT IT HAS BRINGING MORE PRECIPITATION IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT                
AND THURSDAY...SO HAVE THROWN OUT...AND WENT WITH SREF LED                      
CONSENSUS IDEA OF THINGS DRYING OUT LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND                
EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST AS LOW PULLS AWAY. WILL BE A BIT OF WIND              
WITH THE SYSTEM...THOUGH SHOULD EB BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.                       
FOR NOW GOING WITH DRY FORECAST THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE                
BUILDING IN...AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.                                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...                                   
LITTLE TIME TO EVALUATE THE EXTENDED OVERNIGHT...BUT FROM WHAT I                
SAW...FORECAST SEEMED IN GENERAL ON TRACK...SO ONLY CHANGES MADE IN             
GRIDS WERE TO IMPROVE CONSISTENCY BETWEEN OFFICES. PREVIOUS LONG                
TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS (WITH REFERENCES TO THURSDAY (DURING THE                
DAY) REMOVED)...                                                                
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DRY                  
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP              
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY                    
LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD                   
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SNOW THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.              
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL ENSURE PLENTY OF                  
COLD AIR IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN               
TRACK...WE OPTED FOR A COMPROMISE BETWEEN HPC GRIDS AND GMOS WITH               
A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                       
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME SE 5 TO               
10 KT AS SFC HIGH PRES SLIDES EAST OF THE TERMINALS.                            
IFR VSBY/LOW MVFR/IFR CIGS DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS AS               
A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WORKS NE INTO THE REGION. EXPECT MVFR CONDS                
IN LIGHT SNOW TO WORK EAST INTO EASTERN TERMINALS BETWEEN 19Z AND               
22Z.                                                                            
CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE DROPPING TO IFR AND LOWER THIS EVENING THROUGH               
WED. AT THE ONSET...PRECIP WILL BE ALL SNOW. PTYPE BECOMES                      
PROBLEMATIC THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS WARMER AIR SURGES                      
NORTHWARD. FOR KNYC AND COASTAL TERMINALS...WILL EXPECT A PERIOD                
OF SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET THROUGH ABOUT 04Z...THEREAFTER              
EXPECT A QUICK TRANSITION TO RAIN.                                              
INLAND TERMINALS WILL BE MOST PROBLEMATIC. KSWF AND KHPN WILL START             
OUT AS SNOW...MIXING WITH FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AFTER 03Z. FOR                
KSWF...THERE WILL BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN...CHANGING             
OVER WED MORNING. PRECIP AT KHPN SHOULD CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN                    
BETWEEN 09Z AND 11Z.                                                            
LIFR CONDITIONS IN RA...HEAVY AT TIMES...EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO             
EARLY AFTERNOON. FZRA AT KSWF.                                                  
50+ 2KFT LLJ KT WORKS OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO WED                     
MORNING...CREATING SOME LLWS ISSUES.                                            
SE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO 10-15 KT TONIGHT...THEN WINDS WILL               
BECOME TRICKY LATE TONIGHT AS A COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPS. MOST                    
LIKELY IT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NYC TERMINALS TOWARDS DAYBREAK                
AND THEN SLIDE NW AS COASTAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS. WINDS TO THE S              
AND E OF THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTHERLY AND TO THE N AND E OF THE                  
FRONT IT WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY. BEST GUESS RIGHT KNOW IS THAT                   
KWSF WILL HAVE N/NE WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO WED AND THEN THE                    
REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS WILL BE SOUTHERLY...BUT THIS WILL HAVE               
TO BE ADJUSTED AS TIMING NEARS.                                                 
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...RAIN ENDS AND                      
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR FROM W TO E LATE WED NIGHT. VFR THEN IN               
PLACE THU/FRI. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRI                 
NIGHT/EARLY SAT.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
TRANQUIL WINDS AND SEAS THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES                   
ACROSS THE WATERS.                                                              
A RATHER UNSETTLED PERIOD IS FORECAST TONIGHT INTO THU AS A FRONTAL             
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE WATERS...PRECEDED AND FOLLOWED BY SCA CONDITIONS.            
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID MS VLY TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY                    
TODAY...WHILE ITS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC             
COAST. HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS EAST OF THE WATERS BY THIS EVENING.               
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM....SE                 
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO SCA CRITERIA OVERNIGHT WITH SEAS RAPIDLY               
BUILDING. BY 12Z WED...SEAS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 5 FT TO 10 FT            
ON THE OCEAN AND 2 TO 4 FT ACROSS LI SOUND.                                     
THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE WATERS AROUND 12Z WED...FOLLOWED              
BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 18Z. A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET             
WED MORNING REACHES 60 KT...BUT THE LOW-LEVELS BECOME STRONGLY                  
INVERTED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE WARM FRONT. THIS SHOULD KEEP WIND             
GUSTS FROM REACHING GALE CRITERIA. THE GRADIENT SLACKENS ENOUGH                 
AFTER 12Z WED FOR NY HARBOR AND THE WESTERN SOUND TO DROP BELOW SCA             
CRITERIA. ELSEWHERE WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL...BUT SEAS ON THE OCEAN              
WILL BE WELL ABOVE 5 FT.                                                        
COLD ADVECTION WED NIGHT WILL BRING WINDS BACK UP TO SCA CRITERIA ON            
ALL WATERS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS HIGH                   
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WATERS THU AFT. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM                 
IMPACTS THE AREA FRI EVE WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION TO FOLLOW ON SAT            
WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY TO RETURN ON ALL WATERS.                             
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
POTENTIAL FLOODING CONCERNS ON WEDNESDAY WITH 1-2 INCHES (WITH                  
HIGHER AMOUNTS) CURRENTLY FORECAST. THIS WILL AT LEAST CAUSE MINOR              
FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...AND COULD ALSO CAUSE FLASH                    
FLOODING ISSUES OVER AREAS WITH A SIGNIFICANT ICE COATING (WITH                 
TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED TO GET TO 40 OVER THE NW ON WEDNESDAY                 
WILL HAVE LIMITED MELTING OF THE ICE...SO ALL RAIN WILL                         
RUNOFF...AND OVER EASTERN AREAS...WHERE THERE IS THE SIGNAL OF                  
POSSIBLE BANDING (STRONG FRONTOGENIC FORCING IN FAVORED NW                      
QUADRANT OF COASTAL LOW) THAT COULD LOCALLY ENHANCE PRECIPITATION               
AMOUNTS. WILL REFLECT CONCERNS IN HWO.                                          
&&                                                                              
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING                
     FOR CTZ005>012.                                                            
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR                       
     CTZ005>012.                                                                
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ067.                  
     FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING                
     FOR NYZ068>076.                                                            
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR                       
     NYZ069>071.                                                                
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ068.               
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ002.                  
     FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING                
     FOR NJZ003>006-011.                                                        
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR                       
     NJZ003>006-011.                                                            
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST               
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ330-340-345.                                              
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST                   
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ335-338.                                                  
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST                    
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.                                              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
700 PM EST MON FEB 11 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE FELT ACROSS THE REGION                           
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WINDS SUBSIDING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. IN              
ADDITION...LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL DIMINISH WEST OF THE CAPITAL                  
REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THIS               
EVENING. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS               
THE APPALACHIANS...WILL BRING A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM              
TO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY.  COLDER AIR IS                  
POISED TO RETURN FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.                                       
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...                                          
LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO CONTINUES TO REMAIN PROBLEMATIC.              
REPORTS OF ROAD CLOSURES ACROSS SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY AND TYX                
RADAR TRENDS SUPPORTS ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SAME                       
LOCATIONS. HOURLY RUC13...NAM12 AND LOCAL HIRESWRF GUIDANCE                     
SUPPORT THE NOTION OF EXTENDING THE ADVISORY A BIT LONGER INTO THE              
EVENING HOURS. 1000-850MB WIND TRAJECTORY AROUND 290 DEGREES WITH               
MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND HEALTHY CONVERGENT SIGNATURES TO              
KEEP THIS BANDING GOING THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH A JOG TO THE                 
NORTH EXPECTED. ONCE THIS BANDS LIFTS NORTH...INVERSION HEIGHTS                 
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL                   
AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY.                                        
MEANWHILE...THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION...CU/SC IN PLACE SHOULD                 
QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF "HEATING" WITH DEWPOINTS AT OR               
BELOW 0C. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A FAST DROP IN TEMPERATURES THIS                
EVENING.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                             
TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE TUESDAY SHOULD BE RATHER COLD WITH NEARLY               
CLEAR SKIES (OUTSIDE OF SCT LAKE CLOUDS) AND LIGHT WINDS WITH                   
1030MB SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE. WENT INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST              
LOCATIONS...BELOW ZERO FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE VALLEYS INTO                 
SOUTHERN VT.                                                                    
WHILE WE BEGIN THE DAY ON A SUNNY NOTE...PLENTY OF DISCUSSION                   
CONCERNING UPCOMING SIGNIFICANT EVENT. IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE                      
TRANSPORT IS EXPECTED AND EXAMINATION OF THE H2O VAPOR                          
LOOP...REVEALS AMPLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO                 
AND POTENT MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO RIVER                  
VALLEY. SHORT WAVE WAS DIVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES                      
ACCOMPANIED BY A 130KT JET. ALL OF THESE FEATURES ALONG WITH                    
INCREASING BAROCLINICITY ARE EXPECTED TO CONVERGE ACROSS THE                    
EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.                                                
GFS/NAM/CANADIAN ALL REVEAL STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE NICELY SHOWN              
ON THE 290K SURFACE WITH WIND SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 50KTS! WITH                   
RAPIDLY DESCENDING CPD/S...AND THE COLUMN EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW              
FREEZING...WILL SEE THE SNOW DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST                
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. UP TO A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED             
BY THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY EXPECTED TUESDAY             
NIGHT.                                                                          
STILL OUTSTANDING CONCERNS WITH EVOLVING PRECIP EVENT AND TYPE.                 
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM THE MREF INDICATE A GOOD BURST OF                         
SNOW...TRANSITIONING TO SLEET/FZRA TOWARD MIDNIGHT THEN THE                     
FREEZING LINE HOVERING AROUND THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT                 
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CROSS SECTIONS FROM              
THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST A HEALTHY FGEN FORCING COINCIDING WITH A LAYER              
OF -EPV. SO COULD SEE A CONVECTIVE BURST WITH GOOD SNOWFALL RATES.              
FURTHERMORE...MAX LIFT DURING THE EVENING OCCURS WITHIN THE                     
FAVORABLE DENDRITIC ICE GROWTH REGION. GIVEN THE COMPLEXITY OF                  
PRECIP TYPES...WE WILL HOLD ONTO THE WATCH AT THIS TIME. IN                     
ADDITION...GIVEN THE COLDER TEMPS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER                    
TERRAIN OF NW CT...WILL EXTEND THE WATCH THERE.                                 
NOW THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR A DEFORMATION AXIS TO BE IN PLACE                
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR              
WRAPS IN THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING SYSTEM. THIS COULD ADD                       
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS TO THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TO                     
MONITOR TRENDS (ONCE WE SEE HOW TUESDAY NIGHT EVOLVES).                         
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...                                  
ONCE WEDNESDAY`S MESSY STORM DEPARTS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT... IT LOOKS             
AS IF WE WILL GET A BRIEF BREAK IN STORM WEATHER AS THE POLAR JET               
STREAM AND SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM BECOME BRIEFLY BIFURCATED AGAIN.               
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH TO GIVE US A DRY DAY ON THURSDAY              
WITH SOME SUNSHINE (A RARE COMMODITY THIS MONTH). THEN...A WEAK                 
SYSTEM (A CLIPPER TYPE STORM) COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN               
SHOWERS TO THE AREA COME FRIDAY. WHILE WEAK...IT WILL BRING ANOTHER             
PRETTY STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING            
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR SATURDAY.                                          
AFTER THAT...IT APPEARS THAT THE SOUTHERN JET WILL BECOME ACTIVE                
ONCE AGAIN. EARLIER RUNS OF THE EUROPEAN HAD A SOUTHERN STREAM                  
SYSTEM SLIPPING OFF TO THE SOUTH. NOW...THIS MODEL AS WELL AS THE               
GFS...TRACK THE A STORM FROM TEXAS...EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...AND             
FORMS A SECONDARY LOW TO THE EAST...ANOTHER "DOUBLE-SPLITTER."                  
BOTH MODELS INFER THAT THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH WARM AIR FOR A MIX...OR            
POSSIBLY A CHANGEOVER TO LIQUID RAIN. FOR NOW...WE CALL IT MAINLY               
SNOW GIVEN THE SEASON AND COLDER GMOS TEMPS.                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM                
SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE NEAR             
THE LABRADOR SEA HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO WEAKEN.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL               
BRIEFLY MOVE OVER THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.  LOW PRESSURE WILL                   
APPROACH FROM THE MIDWEST TUE PM WITH ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT                 
BRINGING SNOW INTO SRN NY /KALB SOUTH/ AFTER 21Z.                               
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL PRIOR TO 21Z TUE.  THE W/NW WINDS WILL              
GENERALLY BE 10 KTS OR LESS PRIOR TO 06Z.  THE WINDS WILL BECOME                
LIGHT TO CALM 06Z-09Z.  CIRRUS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH            
AND WEST 15Z-18Z.  THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE                
AFTERNOON WITH SNOW MOVING INTO KPOU AND KALB AFTER 21Z.  EXPECT                
CIGS AND VSBYS TO QUICKLY LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS 21Z TUE TO 00Z WED IN            
THE SNOW. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE E/SE AT 5 KTS OR LESS IN THE               
PM.                                                                             
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...MVFR/IFR...SNOW OR WINTRY MIX LIKELY.                   
THU...VFR...NO SIG WX.                                                          
FRI...MVFR/IFR...CHC SNOW OR WINTRY MIX.                                        
SAT...VFR...NO SIG WX.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
ARCTIC AIRMASS HAS RESULTED IN ICE BUILD UP AND FORMATION ON                    
RIVERS. LAKE EFFECT WILL FINALLY WIND DOWN THIS EVENING. ANOTHER                
COMPLEX SYSTEM ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY                      
AFTERNOON WITH P-TYPE ISSUES. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS SNOW TO THE               
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION WITH SNOW...SLEET AND                      
FREEZING RAIN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH A CHANGEOVER TO PLAIN                  
RAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.              
WITH MOST OF THE QPF EITHER FROZEN OR FREEZING DO NOT EXPECT                    
PROBLEMS BUT BEARS WATCHING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY              
AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY                     
AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001.                                                           
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY                
AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063-082>084.                   
LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY               
FOR NYZ038.                                                                     
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY                
AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.                                                       
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY                
AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013>015.                                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...BGM                                                                  
NEAR TERM...BGM                                                                 
SHORT TERM...BGM                                                                
LONG TERM...HWJIV                                                               
AVIATION...WASULA                                                               
HYDROLOGY...BGM/SD                                                              
FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT                            
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY                                                          
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL                                               
740 PM EST TUE FEB 12 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA UNTIL 11 PM EST...          
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT                 
NOT MUCH WAS CHANGED OTHER THAN TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.                      
NOW CONCERNING THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS EVENING...LATEST               
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS 2 VERY STRONG, SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS 50 TO 60                
MILES OFFSHORE THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST MOVING SLOWLY EAST TO                
EAST NORTHEAST WITHIN A BAND OF CONVECTIVE RAINFALL...AND OTHER                 
SCATTERED HEAVY CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.                  
THIS BAND WAS MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST AS               
THE OVERALL BAND MOVES SLIGHT EAST SOUTHEAST TOWARDS HIGHER                     
INSTABILITY. LATEST ANALYSIS/GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THESE STORMS                   
WERE BEING SUSTAINED WITHIN THE INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING FROM                 
THE EAST CENTRAL GULF INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS...WHERE CAPES AS                 
HIGH AS 3000 J/KG WERE BEING OBSERVED...AND ON THE TAIL END OF THE              
LEAD SUBTROPICAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF.              
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER/ATTENDANT ISOLATED                   
TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE BETWEEN NOW AND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY                    
THEREAFTER...AS MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING LOCAL WRF RUN AND 40KM                 
RUC SUGGEST THE SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION                 
DURING THIS TIME AND WILL INDUCE A SURGE OF THE WEAK SURFACE WARM               
FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTH THROUGH THE REGION...WITH MID-LEVEL DRY             
PUNCH MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA. IN                            
ADDITION...MODEL DIAGNOSED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL BE HIGHEST               
IN THIS TIME PERIOD. LOW LEVEL HELICITIES CONTINUE OVER 100 M2/S2               
WITH BACKED SE SURFACE FLOW...HOWEVER INSTABILITY OVER LAND IS                  
MUCH LESS THAN OVER THE WATER WITH CAPES GENERALLY LIMITED TO                   
AROUND 1000 J/KG. 00Z MIAMI UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWS AROUND 1100                
J/KG SURFACE BASED CAPE WITH 0-3KM HELICITIES CLOSE TO 300 M2/S2.               
WITH ALL THAT SAID...IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST THREAT FOR                    
ISOLATED TORNADOES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL LIE ACROSS              
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA WHERE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY EXISTS              
WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR ZONE...BUT THAT DOES NOT MEAN TORNADO                
THREAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT FURTHER NORTH NEAR THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE               
REGION.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION DURING FIRST FOUR HOURS OF THIS FORECAST              
PERIOD WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF PENINSULA...WITH ACTIVITY                 
MOVING ONSHORE FROM ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GULF.  THUS...               
WILL CARRY PREVAILING VCTS/CB FOR KAPF AND ONLY MENTION VCSH FOR                
ATLANTIC COAST TERMINALS.  THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL INCREASE AFTER              
13/04Z FOR EAST COAST...AS LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES IN RESPONSE TO             
STRONG CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND WILL                
MAINTAIN VCTS/CB FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH END OF FORECAST PERIOD.              
OTHERWISE...EXPECT BKN VFR CIGS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.                  
MODERATE SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY WITH                
ONSET OF LOW-LEVEL JET LATER TONIGHT...AND WILL INCREASE SUSTAINED              
SPEEDS TO 15G25.  EVEN STRONGER WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TOMORROW...AS              
FLOW VEERS TO SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH.  SUSTAINED            
SPEEDS AND GUSTS WILL BOTH DIMINISH BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD.                  
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
ONLY CHANGE WAS TO RE-ISSUE THE SCA FOR BISCAYNE BAY THROUGH THE                
NIGHT BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.                    
UPDATE: STRASSBERG/DD                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM EST TUE FEB 12 2008/                         
..TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA UNTIL 11 PM EST              
THIS EVENING...                                                                 
SYNOPSIS...A LARGE AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM JUST               
WEST OF THE G. LAKES S-SW TO NRN MEX WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES               
MOVING EAST ARND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. FIRST SIGNIFICANT S/W                  
ACROSS E-CENTRAL GULF OF MEX ATTM. ANOTHER MORE VIGOROUS S/W OVR E              
TX. ATTM. AT THE SFC...A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN TIP            
OF FL PENINSULA AT THE MOMENT WITH NMRS SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS                     
SPREADING NORTH. COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM TN SW TO SWRN TX.                    
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT...LATEST MDLS SHOW WARM FRONT MOVING N TO                  
CENTRAL FLORIDA BY 00Z WHILE AT THE SAME TIME THE 1ST SHORT WAVE                
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. BOTH GFS AND NAM SHOW VERY GOOD UPR LVL                 
DIV AHEAD OF THE S/W WITH A STG 850MB INFLOW (30 TO 45 KTS) MAINLY              
FROM LAKE OKEE NORTHWARD. THIS SEEMS TO INDICATE THAT NRN PORTION               
OF S. FL (COUNTIES SURROUNDING LAKE OKEE) WILL EXPERIENCE MOST OF               
WX AS MOST PARAMETERS COINCIDE OVR THAT AREA TONIGHT. THE ONLY FLY              
IN THE OINTMENT IS THE ABSENCE OF A SFC FORCING MECHANISM AS THE                
WARM FNT WILL ALREADY BE NORTH OF THE AREA. STILL LOW LVL                       
CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD TSTM                
ACTIVITY WITH A FEW BECOMING STG.                                               
WEDNESDAY...S/W OVER TX WILL DIG SE PUSHING THE COLD FRONT ANOTHER              
ROUND OF STORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA WEDNESDAY BY 18Z. A SQUALL                  
LINE WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FNT AND MOVING THROUGH S. FL                
WED AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION IS, HOW STRONG THIS SQUALL LINE IS                  
GOING TO BE WHEN IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MDLS SHOW LOW LVL                   
WINDS VEERING TO SW AHEAD OF THE LINE DISRUPTING THE INFLOW AND                 
WEAKENING THE LINE. STILL WILL EXPECT A FEW STORMS TO MAKE IT                   
THROUGH THE AREA. WITH AN UNIDIRECTIONAL SFC TO 700 MB SHEAR WILL               
EXPECT BIGGEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS (40                
TO 50 MPH) AT BEST. GFS INDICATES THIS LINE WILL ACTUALLY SLOW                  
DOWN WITH A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CD                 
FNT SHOULD MOVE SOUTH OF MIA BY 06Z THU WITH DRYING TREND STARTING              
QUICKLY AFTER FROPPA.                                                           
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AFTER FROPA WED                           
NIGHT...DRIER AIR SHOULD FILTER SOUTH TO SOUTH FLORIDA WITH                     
BASICALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE HOLD PERIOD.                               
AVIATION...CEILINGS OCCASIONALLY AROUND 3 TO 5KFT ARE EXPECTED TO               
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH BRIEF LOWER CEILINGS IN THE                 
EVENING AS MOISTURE INCREASES. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS ALSO         
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AND REMAIN ELEVATED TONIGHT AND INTO          
WEDNESDAY. WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST TO                       
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY BECOME MORE          
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 12 TO 16 KT               
RANGE WITH GUSTS IN THE LOW 20S, HOWEVER WINDS MAY BECOME VARIABLE              
AND INCREASE IN SPEED IN AND AROUND STORMS.                                     
MARINE...SFC WNDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND BECOME S-SW AS THE                  
SFC LOW/FNT OVER SRN PLAINS DEEPENS. SFC WINDS SHOULD VEER TO NW                
BEHIND THE COLD FNT AND BRIEFLY REMAIN AT 15 TO 20 KTS WED NIGHT                
BEFORE SUBSIDING TO BELOW 15 KTS AFTERWARDS.                                    
FIRE WEATHER...RH VALUES WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BY THU AFTERNOON               
AS DRY AIR FILTER SOUTH BEHIND THE FNT. RH COULD HOVER ARND 35                  
PERCENT FOR A FEW HOURS. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER QUICKLY BY FRIDAY.              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WEST PALM BEACH  69  81  56  75 / 90 70 30 10                                   
FORT LAUDERDALE  71  81  60  77 / 90 70 30 10                                   
MIAMI            70  82  60  78 / 90 70 30 10                                   
NAPLES           68  77  56  76 / + 70 20 10                                    
&&                                                                              
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...TORNADO WATCH 53 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING.                   
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR                          
     AMZ650-AMZ651- AMZ670-AMZ671.                                              
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ630.                  
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LONG TERM...47/RHG                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...04/AT                                                     
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
950 PM EST MON FEB 11 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY                
INTO WEDNESDAY...                                                               
CURRENT...CURRENT RUC40 SURFACE ANALYSIS WAS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE              
MOVING OFF THE VA/NC COAST AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE                  
EASTERLY FLOW IS MAINTAIN AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE             
ATLANTIC. LATEST IR SATELLITE LOOP WAS SHOWING ADVANCING CIRRUS                 
SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF                
MEXICO SLOWLY EXPANDING EASTWARD. OF NOTE ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP IS            
A BULGE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEVELOPING LOW AS A VORTICITY MAX                
MOVES THROUGH THE SYSTEM.                                                       
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. NO UPDATE PLANNED.                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR. WILL SEE HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUE            
MORNING. PCPN CHANCES INCREASE TUE AFTN FROM SOUTH AND THERE WILL BE            
AN ISOLD THUNDER CHANCE BY MID/LATE AFTN. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS INVOF PCPN            
TUE AFTN.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...LATEST BUOY OBS WERE SOUTHEAST AROUND 16 KNOTS AND 4 FOOT             
SEAS. WILL AMEND THE WIND GRIDS TO BETTER MATCH OBS AND TRENDS. WILL            
HEADLINE CAUTION FOR 15-20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATERS            
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ADVISORIES BEING NEEDED TUE.                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISC...                                                                   
TUE...NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT RAPIDLY BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY EARLY IN              
THE PERIOD AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO THE            
MIDWEST AND TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. ALSO             
BY THIS TIME A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE ADVANCED INTO THE                
GULF COAST STATES OF LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI. CLOSER TO                       
HOME...ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO MOISTEN                  
DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM THE TOP DOWN. AS SUCH...ONLY              
MEAGER PCPN CHANCES AROUND TUE MORNING (HIGHER SOUTH)...THOUGH THEY             
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS             
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL VEER TO OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AS DEWPOINTS              
CLIMB SEVERAL DEGREES DURING THE DAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM                 
FRONT THAT WILL ADVANCE FROM SOUTH FLORIDA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE                
AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL APPROACH BREEZY STATUS DURING THE                     
DAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE SOUTH. EXPECT CLOUD               
COVER TO THICKEN DURING THE DAY KEEPING MAX TEMPERATURES IN CHECK               
WITH MIDDLE 70S NORTH AND UPPER 70S FURTHER SOUTH. WILL TAPER PCPN              
CHANCES UPWARD IN THE AFTN TO HIGH END CHC NORTH (50%) AND LIKELY               
(60-70%) SOUTH. KEEP IN MIND THAT INCREASED RAIN CHANCES NORTHWARD              
WILL BE MAINLY FROM MID/LATE AFTN. ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY WILL BE              
AT A MINIMUM DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT A SCHC THUNDER MENTION IS                 
WARRANTED NONETHELESS.                                                          
TUESDAY NIGHT-WED...RATHER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST OF               
THE AREA AND A LONG FETCH OF SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TAP DEEP MOISTURE              
OUT OF THE TROPICS TUE NIGHT. A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ASSOCIATED WITH              
WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER IMPULSE MAY TRACK QUICKLY EAST ACROSS                
THE EASTERN GULF/SOUTHERN PENINSULA ALONG WEAK WARM FRONT.                      
WHATEVER CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WITH THIS INITIAL IMPULSE WILL                
BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR.                             
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE DURING THE NIGHT AS VIGOROUS                     
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. ASSOCIATED                  
SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND DEEPEN                
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON WED. UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL                  
INCREASE AND A SQUALL LINE MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT               
AND SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA WED MORNING.                                          
NOT SURE IF EVERYTHING WILL COME TOGETHER FOR A POTENT SEVERE                   
WEATHER OUTBREAK...BUT THE DEEP MOISTURE AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT                   
SHOULD RESULT IN A HIGH COVERAGE OF RAINFALL. THE MAGNITUDE OF LOW              
LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS BUT THE AMOUNT OF                    
NIGHTTIME INSTABILITY IS TYPICALLY PROBLEMATICAL. CONVECTION LATE               
TUE MAY HAVE AN ENHANCED HAIL THREAT AS THERE SHOULD INITIALLY BE               
A DRY MID LEVEL LAYER. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO VEER AFTER                  
MIDNIGHT BUT THIS IS DEPENDENT ON POSITION/TIMING/STRENGTH OF                   
SURFACE LOW FORMATION...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A THREAT FOR TORNADOES.              
&&                                                                              
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM TUE NIGHT TO EARLY THU MORNING                   
     FOR THE WATERS 20-60 NM OFFSHORE BETWEEN FLAGLER BEACH AND                 
     JUPITER INLET.                                                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER                                                    
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
841 PM CST TUE FEB 12 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISSUED 840 PM CST TUE FEB 12 2008                                               
CLOUDS CLEARING OUT QUICKER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING               
WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A QUICK DROP IN TEMPS...ESP ACRS THE NW. UPPER            
TROF CLEARLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR ACRS THE CNTRL U.S. WL TRACK EAST              
TNT AND TAKE THE WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WELL TO OUR                
EAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY WL TAKE HOLD OF OUR                
WX WITH CLEARING SKIES AND VERY COLD TEMPS. PREVIOUS FCST HAD OVERNIGHT         
LOWS NEAR ZERO IN THE NW AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACRS THE CNTRL WITH           
LOW TO MID TEENS IN THE SOUTHEAST. BASED ON UPSTREAM TEMPS AND DEW              
POINTS AND HI RES RUC AND NMM4 2 METER TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT                  
HOURS...WL HAVE TO MAKE SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO OVERNIGHT                   
LOWS...AS WELL AS SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY GRIDS.                            
SMITH                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISSUED 545 PM CST TUE FEB 12 2008                                               
MAIN ISSUE THIS PERIOD WILL BE TIMING OF STRATOCU DECK OUT OF THE               
TAF SITES THIS EVENING ALONG WITH THE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. UPPER             
TROF SHIFTING EWD ACRS THE MIDWEST LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING SHOULD            
TAKE THE LAST ROUND OF FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS WITH IT. BASED ON SATELLITE        
TRENDS...THE PIA AND SPI TAF SITES SHOULD SEE CIGS IMPROVE BETWEEN              
02Z AND 04Z...DECATUR JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WITH LOW LVL CYCLONIC FLOW          
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT...IT APPEARS THE BMI AND CMI TAF SITES WILL                
BE A BIT SLOWER TO CLEAR OUT...MORE IN THE 07Z-09Z TIME FRAME.                  
SFC FLOW WL REMAIN FROM A 290-320 DIRECTION THRU THE PERIOD WITH                
WINDS BACKING MORE INTO A WESTERLY DIRECTION TOWARDS THE END OF                 
FORECAST PERIOD.                                                                
SMITH                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
ISSUED 244 PM CST TUE FEB 12 2008                                               
INITIAL ISSUES WILL BE LINGERING PRECIP FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM...THEN           
HOW COLD TO GO FOR LOWS TONIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST WILL               
BE ON THURSDAY NIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT GETS PULLED ACROSS ILLINOIS              
DUE TO A POTENT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS MN AND WI. OUR AREA WILL SEE               
A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW...AND MAYBE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SOUTHEAST               
OF I-72. THE LONG RANGE IS BEING HIGHLIGHTED BY A STRONG STORM                  
EXPECTED TO LIFT BY TO OUR EAST ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE                 
LATEST RUNS HAVE NOW PUSHED THE STORM FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP                   
PRECIP OUT OF ILLINOIS...BUT THE TRACK WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED                  
FARTHER WEST AS THE DAYS GO BY.                                                 
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.                                          
DEFORMATION ZONE SNOWS WILL LIKELY CLIP OUR NORTHERN CWA THIS                   
EVENING...WHILE THE EASTERN CWA DEALS WITH LIGHT SNOW CLOSER TO                 
THE JET MAX TO OUR EAST. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS CHANGED OVER TO               
ALL SNOW AS ICE CRYSTALS ALOFT HAVE RETURNED. I ADDED LIGHT SNOW                
OR FLURRIES TO MOST OF THE CWA FOR THIS EVENING...WITH HIGHER                   
PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH. NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A                 
DUSTING OF ADDITIONAL SNOW FROM THE REST OF THIS SYSTEM.                        
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A TOUGH CALL...PRIMARILY DUE TO WHERE THE                  
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...AND FIGURING OUT HOW ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL              
AFFECT THE TEMPS. IN GENERAL...WILL BE TRENDING SLIGHTLY COLDER                 
THAN GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY IN OUR WESTERN CWA WHERE WE HAVE A                   
BETTER CHANCE TO CLEAR OUT. NORTHWEST FLOW HAS INCREASING ACROSS                
THE ENTIRE CWA...WHICH MAY WORK TO PUSH ADDITIONAL CLOUDS INTO OUR              
AREA...BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS. HOWEVER...ENOUGH DRY AIR ALOFT                
SHOULD MIX OUT CLOUDS AT LEAST A LITTLE IN OUR WEST. SOME                       
CLEARING IS APPROACHING WESTERN ILL ALREADY...AND THE SURFACE LOW               
IS ALMOST INTO OHIO.                                                            
WEDNESDAY SHOULD SEE DECREASING CLOUDS...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS              
PASSES OVER ILLINOIS. H85 TEMPS WILL BE ON A STEADY RISE ALL                    
DAY...BUT HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE COLD START.                 
THURSDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE               
LOWER 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS.                                                    
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.                                     
A STORM SYSTEM WILL DROP A BAND OF HEAVY SNOWS ON MN AND WI ON                  
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS IL               
THUR NIGHT. OUR AREA WILL BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW                
AND H85 LOW...THAT WE SHOULD BE SPARED THE HEAVIER SNOWS. OUR AREA              
NW OF THE IL RIVER MAY GET A HALF INTO TO ONE INCH...BUT ELSEWHERE              
WILL MOST LIKELY SEE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...OR EVEN SOME RAIN                 
SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF I-72.                                                      
ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THAT FRONT WILL DROP TEMPS ON                 
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WELL BELOW NORMAL. TEMPS WILL REBOUND                   
FOR SATURDAY AS HIGHS RETURN TO THE 30S.                                        
SUNDAY REMAINS A QUESTION MARK AS THE MODELS TRY TO DETERMINE THE               
PATH OF A SOUTHERN STREAM STORM AND HOW IT WILL PHASE WITH A                    
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM JUST TO OUR EAST. FOR NOW...I PULLED BACK                
ON THE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND ONLY HAVE POPS IN THE EAST NEAR                
THE STORM. PAST HISTORY OF HOW THE MODELS HANDLE STORMS THAT FAR                
INTO THE FUTURE INDICATES WE SHOULD SEE THE STORM TRACK RESOLVE                 
CLOSER TO THE COLDER AIR EVENTUALLY. HOW FAR WEST IT ENDS UP WILL               
PLAY A HUGE ROLL IN HOW MUCH WINTRY WEATHER AFFECTS OUR SE CWA.                 
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1137 AM CST TUE FEB 12 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISSUED 1018 AM CST TUE FEB 12 2008                                              
FORECAST HAS ALREADY BEEN UPDATED FOR THIS MORNINGS FREEZING                    
DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA. ILX 12Z RAOB SOUNDING SHOWS SIGNIFICANT                
DRY LAYER AT THE MIDLEVELS...AND DRYNESS ALOFT...NEGATING CHANCE                
FOR ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION. AS A RESULT... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE                    
COMING OUT OF THE CLOUDS AS MOSTLY FREEZING DRIZZLE. GLAZING ON                 
ROADS WHERE THE DRIZZLE HAS BEEN GOING ON A LITTLE LONGER...ALONG               
AND SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 72. OTHER THAN THAT...ADDITIONAL SNOW               
ACCUMULATION AS THE COLD MOISTURE WORKS INTO THE REGION FROM THE                
NW ...SHOULD REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE...LESS THAN AN INCH FOR MOST                     
LOCATIONS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 72. FORECAST ALREADY ISSUED.                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISSUED 1128 AM CST TUE FEB 12 2008                                              
PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA PRODUCING SOME FREEZING                    
DRIZZLE IN THE SOUTHEAST...AND LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES IN AREAS WHERE               
COLD AIR IS WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. SYSTEM MOVING A BIT                
MORE SLOWLY THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. LOOKING AT 11-3.9                       
SATELLITE IMAGERY...A SIGNIFICANT DIVISION OF CLOUDS OUT OVER IA                
MAKING ITS WAY TO THE TAF SITES. AT THIS POINT... THE EDGE OF THE               
CLOUDS IS GETTING MORE DIFFUSE...SO WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN THE                 
TREND OF LOW CLOUDS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. KEEPING FLURRIES AT               
LEAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. NOT UNTIL TOMORROW MID MORNING TO                 
SCATTER OUT THE CLOUDS A BIT AS THE WINDS BACK TO THE WEST. MAY                 
ADD PRECIP LATER THIS EVENING IF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HOLDS                   
OUT...AND MAY END UP KILLING THE LOW CLOUDS EARLIER IF THE DRY AIR              
WINS. MODELS ARE SPLIT DOWN THE MIDDLE AND NOT MUCH ASSISTANCE AT               
THIS POINT...SO MUCH OF THIS FORECAST IS PERSISTENCE.                           
HJS                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
ISSUED 345 AM CST TUE FEB 12 2008                                               
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.                                            
EARLY MORNING SFC ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN               
TENNESSEE...WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TRAILING BACK TO A MESO LOW               
OVER SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND NEARLY STATIONARY WARM FRONT LAID              
OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.                                               
BAND OF PRECIPITATION CERTAINLY TURNED OUT TO BE SHARPLY DEFINED                
INVOF THE WARM FRONT! LITTLE MORE THAN FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS                     
OCCURRED ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES... BUT ONE DOES NOT HAVE              
TO TRAVEL TOO FAR SOUTH OF OUR CWA TO ENCOUNTER AN AREA THAT                    
RECEIVED SOME PRETTY MAJOR ICING OVERNIGHT.                                     
MEANWHILE... APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS RUNNING A LITTLE                   
BEHIND SCHEDULE... AND ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS IMPRESSIVE ON WATER VAPOR              
IMAGERY... UPSTREAM OBS AND RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS JUST VERY LIGHT              
SNOW IS FALLING ACROSS IOWA JUST AHEAD OF THE VORT MAX. SFC VISBYS              
RANGE FROM 3-5SM... AND THE HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES ON RADAR REMAIN               
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ARCTIC FRONT WHICH IS DRAPED JUST NORTH OF               
I-80.                                                                           
THE ONE CONCERN ALL NIGHT HAS BEEN WHETHER OR NOT THE APPROACHING               
SHORTWAVE WOULD HELP TO SCOOP UP BETTER MOISTURE INTO OUR                       
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING AS MID-LEVEL WINDS START TO                  
BACK. SO FAR THIS HAS NOT HAPPENED. ENHANCED AREA OF PRECIP ALONG               
THE SOUTHERN FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING                   
TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED INTO A RATHER NICE LINE OF CONVECTION WHICH                
LOOKS POISED TO CONTINUE TO MATCH DUE EAST. CIRRUS BLOW OFF FROM                
THIS CONVECTION IS BEING PULLED UP INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI... AND                
THIS MAY BE HELPING TO PRODUCE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE AT SGF                     
THROUGH A SEEDER-FEEDER MECHANISM. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO MUCH                  
HIGHER DOWN THERE. NAM/RUC SOUNDINGS ACROSS OUR CWA INDICATE LOTS               
OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND A LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS IN THE SATURATED                
COLUMN EXCEPT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. HOWEVER... AS LONG AS                       
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS...                  
FZDZ IS NOT LIKELY TO BE MUCH OF A CONCERN NORTH OF I-70.                       
SO FOR NORTH OF I-70 TODAY... EXPECT JUST SOME SCATTERED SNOW                   
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AS THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH... WITH MINIMAL                
ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS... PERHAPS A DUSTING AT BEST ALONG/NORTH OF                
I-72. ALTHOUGH SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS NOW ALONG                 
THE I-72 CORRIDOR... COOLING ALOFT AS TROUGH APPROACHES SHOULD                  
ALSO HELP MITIGATE FZDZ THREAT EARLIER THIS MORNING.                            
SOUTH OF I-70... WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS                 
GIVEN DRY MID-LEVELS... PERIODS OF FZDZ COULD CONTINUE THROUGH                  
ABOUT NOON. UPSTREAM VWP AND PROFILERS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL WINDS IN               
THE SATURATED LAYER WILL BE DECREASING IN TIME... WHICH RESULTS IN              
LESSENING CHANCES FOR DRIZZLE AS THERE WILL BE LESS DROPLET                     
COLLISIONS IN THE INCREASINGLY LESS TURBULENT ENVIRONMENT. BY                   
18Z... COOLING ALOFT SHOULD MITIGATE FZDZ THREAT... WITH LIGHT                  
SNOW SHOWERS OR JUST FLURRIES POSSIBLE.                                         
ROAD REPORTS SUGGEST SOME LIGHT GLAZING HAS OCCURRED IN THE                     
ADVISORY AREA THIS MORNING...SO WE HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE                     
REMAINING ADVISORY GOING THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE... AS SOME                 
ICY SPOTS LIKELY EXIST...ESPECIALLY ON BACK ROADS.                              
QUIET WX TO REIGN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. APPROACHING COLD FRONT                 
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT... WITH WARMER AIR                    
ADVECTING INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS IN THE MID-40S                
LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA THU. COLDER                 
AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT. SYSTEM STILL LOOKS MOISTURE                
STARVED... AND THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH... SO STILL               
KEPT PRECIP CHANCES FAIRLY LOW... ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE                   
ILLINOIS RIVER.                                                                 
LONG TERM...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.                                                
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE              
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRI AND SATURDAY LIKELY TO                    
REMAIN DRY... AS CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.                 
TIMING AND PATH OF THIS SYSTEM PULLING OUT WILL BE CRITICAL DURING              
THE SUN-MON TIME FRAME. GENERALLY PREFER THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS WITH              
CUTOFFS. GFS HAS TRENDED SLOWER... CLOSER TO THE ECMWF/UKMET                    
SOLUTION. MODELS STILL HAVING SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO                 
THE STRENGTH/AMPLITUDE OF THE APPROACHING KICKER TROUGH... AS WELL              
AS HOW FAR SOUTH INTO MEXICO THE CUTOFF DROPS. A FAIRLY                         
SIGNIFICANT STORM IS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHEN                  
THIS SYSTEM FINALLY KICKS OUT. MODELS STILL KEEP THE BULK OF THE                
PRECIP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER... BUT THIS IS STILL A                 
LONG WAYS OUT... AND ALL WINTER THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRACKING                   
THESE SYSTEMS TOO FAR SOUTH AND EAST. EITHER WAY... SLOWER                      
SOLUTION MEANS THIS HAS NO BEARING ON THE DAY 4-5 FORECAST.                     
HARDIMAN                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
547 AM CST TUE FEB 12 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISSUED 345 AM CST TUE FEB 12 2008                                               
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.                                            
EARLY MORNING SFC ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN               
TENNESSEE...WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TRAILING BACK TO A MESO LOW               
OVER SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND NEARLY STATIONARY WARM FRONT LAID              
OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.                                               
BAND OF PRECIPITATION CERTAINLY TURNED OUT TO BE SHARPLY DEFINED                
INVOF THE WARM FRONT! LITTLE MORE THAN FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS                     
OCCURRED ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES... BUT ONE DOES NOT HAVE              
TO TRAVEL TOO FAR SOUTH OF OUR CWA TO ENCOUNTER AN AREA THAT                    
RECEIVED SOME PRETTY MAJOR ICING OVERNIGHT.                                     
MEANWHILE... APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS RUNNING A LITTLE                   
BEHIND SCHEDULE... AND ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS IMPRESSIVE ON WATER VAPOR              
IMAGERY... UPSTREAM OBS AND RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS JUST VERY LIGHT              
SNOW IS FALLING ACROSS IOWA JUST AHEAD OF THE VORT MAX. SFC VISBYS              
RANGE FROM 3-5SM... AND THE HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES ON RADAR REMAIN               
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ARCTIC FRONT WHICH IS DRAPED JUST NORTH OF               
I-80.                                                                           
THE ONE CONCERN ALL NIGHT HAS BEEN WHETHER OR NOT THE APPROACHING               
SHORTWAVE WOULD HELP TO SCOOP UP BETTER MOISTURE INTO OUR                       
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING AS MID-LEVEL WINDS START TO                  
BACK. SO FAR THIS HAS NOT HAPPENED. ENHANCED AREA OF PRECIP ALONG               
THE SOUTHERN FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING                   
TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED INTO A RATHER NICE LINE OF CONVECTION WHICH                
LOOKS POISED TO CONTINUE TO MATCH DUE EAST. CIRRUS BLOW OFF FROM                
THIS CONVECTION IS BEING PULLED UP INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI... AND                
THIS MAY BE HELPING TO PRODUCE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE AT SGF                     
THROUGH A SEEDER-FEEDER MECHANISM. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO MUCH                  
HIGHER DOWN THERE. NAM/RUC SOUNDINGS ACROSS OUR CWA INDICATE LOTS               
OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND A LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS IN THE SATURATED                
COLUMN EXCEPT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. HOWEVER... AS LONG AS                       
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS...                  
FZDZ IS NOT LIKELY TO BE MUCH OF A CONCERN NORTH OF I-70.                       
SO FOR NORTH OF I-70 TODAY... EXPECT JUST SOME SCATTERED SNOW                   
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AS THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH... WITH MINIMAL                
ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS... PERHAPS A DUSTING AT BEST ALONG/NORTH OF                
I-72. ALTHOUGH SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS NOW ALONG                 
THE I-72 CORRIDOR... COOLING ALOFT AS TROUGH APPROACHES SHOULD                  
ALSO HELP MITIGATE FZDZ THREAT EARLIER THIS MORNING.                            
SOUTH OF I-70... WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS                 
GIVEN DRY MID-LEVELS... PERIODS OF FZDZ COULD CONTINUE THROUGH                  
ABOUT NOON. UPSTREAM VWP AND PROFILERS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL WINDS IN               
THE SATURATED LAYER WILL BE DECREASING IN TIME... WHICH RESULTS IN              
LESSENING CHANCES FOR DRIZZLE AS THERE WILL BE LESS DROPLET                     
COLLISIONS IN THE INCREASINGLY LESS TURBULENT ENVIRONMENT. BY                   
18Z... COOLING ALOFT SHOULD MITIGATE FZDZ THREAT... WITH LIGHT                  
SNOW SHOWERS OR JUST FLURRIES POSSIBLE.                                         
ROAD REPORTS SUGGEST SOME LIGHT GLAZING HAS OCCURRED IN THE                     
ADVISORY AREA THIS MORNING...SO WE HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE                     
REMAINING ADVISORY GOING THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE... AS SOME                 
ICY SPOTS LIKELY EXIST...ESPECIALLY ON BACK ROADS.                              
QUIET WX TO REIGN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. APPROACHING COLD FRONT                 
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT... WITH WARMER AIR                    
ADVECTING INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS IN THE MID-40S                
LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA THU. COLDER                 
AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT. SYSTEM STILL LOOKS MOISTURE                
STARVED... AND THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH... SO STILL               
KEPT PRECIP CHANCES FAIRLY LOW... ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE                   
ILLINOIS RIVER.                                                                 
LONG TERM...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.                                                
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE              
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRI AND SATURDAY LIKELY TO                    
REMAIN DRY... AS CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.                 
TIMING AND PATH OF THIS SYSTEM PULLING OUT WILL BE CRITICAL DURING              
THE SUN-MON TIME FRAME. GENERALLY PREFER THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS WITH              
CUTOFFS. GFS HAS TRENDED SLOWER... CLOSER TO THE ECMWF/UKMET                    
SOLUTION. MODELS STILL HAVING SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO                 
THE STRENGTH/AMPLITUDE OF THE APPROACHING KICKER TROUGH... AS WELL              
AS HOW FAR SOUTH INTO MEXICO THE CUTOFF DROPS. A FAIRLY                         
SIGNIFICANT STORM IS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHEN                  
THIS SYSTEM FINALLY KICKS OUT. MODELS STILL KEEP THE BULK OF THE                
PRECIP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER... BUT THIS IS STILL A                 
LONG WAYS OUT... AND ALL WINTER THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRACKING                   
THESE SYSTEMS TOO FAR SOUTH AND EAST. EITHER WAY... SLOWER                      
SOLUTION MEANS THIS HAS NO BEARING ON THE DAY 4-5 FORECAST.                     
HARDIMAN                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISSUED 547 AM CST TUE FEB 12 2008                                               
MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 1KFT AND 2.5KFT WILL BE SEEN AT BMI AND PIA ALL DAY           
AS WINDS START NORTHEAST AND SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BY TONIGHT.                
IFR CIGS JUST UNDER 1KFT WILL BE AT SPI...DEC AND CMI THROUGH THIS              
MORNING...THEN RISE TO MVFR (BETWEEN 1KFT AND 1.5KFT) AROUND                    
19-20Z...THEN GRADUALLY RISE AGAIN TO AROUND 2.5KFT AFTER MIDNIGHT.             
LIKE PIA AND BMI...WINDS WILL START AS NORTHEAST AND THEN GRADUALLY             
TRANSITION THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND BECOME NORTHWEST BY TONIGHT.                  
AUTEN                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ILZ067-                 
068-071>073.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1142 PM CST MON FEB 11 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
ISSUED 1142 PM CST MON FEB 11 2008                                              
LARGE AREA OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IS ON PRETTY MUCH A STRAIGHT LINE             
TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM            
LOUISVILLE TO ROBINSON. EFFINGHAM...CUMBERLAND...AND CLARK COUNTIES             
WILL LIKELY NOT GET ADVISORY LEVEL ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW OR SLEET.              
WILL THEREFORE CANCEL THESE COUNTIES FROM THE ADVISORY. KLWV HAS                
RECENTLY REPORTED FREEZING RAIN...AND THE 04Z RUC ANALYSIS SOUNDING             
SIMULATION SHOWS SOMEWHAT OF A WARM NOSE IN THE LOWER LAYERS. SO                
WILL ADD A MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE ADVISORY AREA.                       
04                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISSUED 1116 PM CST MON FEB 11 2008                                              
MVFR CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO THE SPI-DEC-CMI AREAS THIS EVENING.                 
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW AND LIGHT FREEZING                
DRIZZLE WILL MOVE THROUGH IN A TEMPO FASHION...POSSIBLY A LITTLE                
MORE WIDESPREAD 10Z-14Z TUE. INITIAL VFR CONDITIONS PIA-BMI WILL                
ALSO BECOME MVFR WITH TIME WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW. EXPECT                   
PRECIPITATION TO END BY 18Z TUE IN THE SPI-DEC-CMI CORRIDOR. PIA-BMI            
WILL PROBABLY SEE LIGHT SNOW END BY 20Z. EVEN AFTER THE LIGHT SNOW              
ENDS...WILL SEE MVFR CLOUDS CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z WED.                           
04                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
ISSUED 833 PM CST MON FEB 11 2008                                               
WILL BE MAKING ADJUSTMENTS IN THE OVERALL FORECAST SOON. CENTRAL                
ILLINOIS IS CAUGHT BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS THIS EVENING. THE NORTHERN               
SHEAR ZONE/ISENTROPIC LIFT REGION HAS BEEN NORTH OF OUR COUNTIES                
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND BELIEVE THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE.              
UPSTREAM VORT MAX OVER NEBRASKA WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT AND THIS               
MAY INCREASE SNOWFALL IN THE NORTH...BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE                
LIGHT AS THE WAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND THE              
MOISTURE WILL BE MUCH MORE LIMITED THAN AREAS TO THE SOUTH. WILL                
THEREFORE HAVE CHANCE POPS BEFORE MIDNIGHT THEN LOW-END LIKELY POPS             
AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR AN INCH OR TWO ACCUMULATION AT BEST.                         
FURTHER SOUTH...STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN                    
MISSOURI INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THEN JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO             
RIVER. INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET FROM TEXAS INTO ARKANSAS AHEAD OF A             
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HAS CAUSED A DRAMATIC INCREASE IN                     
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF                 
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS LIKE            
IT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF            
INTERSTATE 70 LATER TONIGHT. BY THE TIME THE PRECIPITATION MOVES                
NORTHEASTWARD AS FAR NORTH AS THE FLORA AREA...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY              
SNOW AND SLEET. ADVISORY LEVEL ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET AND SNOW STILL            
APPEAR LIKELY...SO WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING WITH             
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 PERHAPS 4 INCHES.                                      
FURTHER NORTH...AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF DRY AIR WAS SAMPLED BY THE 00Z             
LINCOLN SOUNDING EXTENDING FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 4KFT. RICHER               
MOISTURE THEN EXTENDS UPWARD BUT ONLY MAKES IT TO 10KFT. SINCE THERE            
IS LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE PREFERRED DENDRITIC ICE GROWTH ZONE                   
BETWEEN -10C AND -20C /12K-16K FT/ EXPECT THAT MOST OF THE                      
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SPOTTY AND IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW AND LIGHT            
FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE PROSPECTS FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE            
CENTRAL COUNTIES THEREFORE APPEARS SLIM...SO WILL SHAVE A TIER OF               
COUNTIES FROM THE NORTH END OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA                 
/I.E. SHELBY...COLES AND EDGAR/. ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE MIDDLE                
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL PROBABLY BE LESS THAN AN INCH...IF               
THAT MUCH.                                                                      
04                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR                              
ILZ067-068-071>073.                                                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL                                      
903 PM CST TUE FEB 12 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
GRIDS/ZFP RECENTLY UPDATED TO DECREASE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVER THE                
AREA THIS EVENING AND TO REMOVE ANY SNOW WORDING WITH THE LAST OF               
THE -SN ALMOST OUT OF THE CWFA. TEMP FORECAST FOR THE REST OF                   
TONIGHT WILL BE TRICKY. WITH THE CLEARING THAT HAS TAKEN PLACE SO               
FAR THIS EVENING TEMPS HAVE DROPPED RAPIDLY IN SOME AREAS. KDVN                 
WAS DOWN TO -4 AS OF 03Z AND KMXO AND KCWI WERE AROUND ZERO.                    
COMPLICATING THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS A NARROW BAND OF AC FROM              
JUST WEST OF KMUT NORTH THE KIOW KCID AND KVTI WHICH WAS KEEPING                
TEMPS FROM COOLING MUCH. RUC H800 RH PROGS HOLD THIS RH OVER ERN                
IA NRN IL MOST OF THE EVENING BUT SHOW IT EAST OF THE AREA AROUND               
06Z. BASED ON THIS FEEL THE AC SHOULD PUSH EAST BY 06Z LEAVING                  
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE ENTIRE CWA THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE CLEAR                
SKIES COMBINED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING EAST TOWARD THE                   
AREA AND FRESH SNOW COVER SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DECENT TEMP DROP LATE              
TONIGHT...SO HAVE TWEAKED MIN TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES.                         
...DLF...                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IA...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DLF                                                                             
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE...                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL                                      
1030 AM CST TUE FEB 12 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
RESPECTABLE DEFORMATION ZONE SITTING ACROSS EASTERN IOWA THIS                   
MORNING PRODUCING ACCUMULATING SNOW. SOME REPORTS SO FAR INDICATE               
ABOUT AN INCH OF NEW SNOWFALL. HAVE UPDATED CURRENT FCST TO BEEF UP             
THE MENTION OF SNOW. 15Z RUC SHOWS RESPECTABLE VORT MAX HELPING TO              
MAINTAIN THE SNOWFALL AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON                 
HOURS. BEST GUESS RIGHT NOW IS NEW SNOW OF 1-2 INCHES DURING THE                
DAYLIGHT HOURS. PRECIP SHOULD END RATHER ABRUPTLY FROM WEST TO EAST             
FROM ABOUT MID AFTERNOON ON. SINCE SNOW WILL HANG AROUND A LITTLE               
LONGER THAN THOUGHT...HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY AS WELL.            
...08...                                                                        
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/                                                           
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
SIGNIFICANT SNOWS HAVE MOVED EAST AND NORTHEAST OF FORECAST AREA                
LEAVING 1 TO 4 INCH SNOW TOTALS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 CORRIDOR                
WITH TRACE UP TO AN INCH SOUTH. SURFACE AND UPPER ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK           
SUBSIDENCE WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH LOCAL TOOLS                     
SUGGESTING MOST TO ALL REGION TO REMAIN CLOUDY WITH PATCHY FLURRIES             
AND JUST A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. BECAUSE OF               
THIS...HAVE CANCELLED SNOW ADVISORY OVER NORTH 1/3 OF FORECAST AREA.            
EXTENDED WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE BACK INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA MAY ALLOW             
SOME LINGERING FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW TO PERSIST INTO NE SECTIONS OF           
FORECAST AREA INTO MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES            
AREA TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON LOW END OF GUIDANCE DUE TO NEGATIVE                 
FEEDBACK OF DEEP SNOW COVER OVER NORTHWESTERN 2/3 OF AREA.                      
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...                                              
TODAY...REDUCED POPS WITH MORNING CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND OCCASIONAL           
FLURRIES BECOMING SCATTERED PM FLURRIES...ENDING FROM SW TO NE AS               
LAST SEGMENTS OF WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE MOVES EAST.  KEPT MAX                    
TEMPERATURES IN UPPER TEENS NORTH TO LOWER 20S SOUTH WITH CLOUDS AND            
NORTH WIND OF 5 TO 15 MPH SUPPORTS ARCTIC AIR TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY             
MODIFY UNDER DEEP SNOW PACK.  AREA MOS GUIDANCE REMAINS HAVING                  
DIFFICULTY WITH THIS BL NEGATIVE FEEDBACK...THUS SUPPORTING USING               
MAINLY PERSISTENCE TREND. TONIGHT...SKIES WITH WEAK TO MODERATE                 
SUBSIDENCE AS WEAK SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE TO ALLOW AT LEAST PARTIAL            
CLEARING AND ADD LIGHT WINDS...GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING SUPPORTS AREA             
TEMPERATURES TO CRASH. KEPT MINS 3-5 DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE BUT IF              
PROGGED CONDITIONS VERIFY...AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO SEE TEMPERATURES            
TO CRASH PROBABLY WELL BELOW ZERO WITH INTENSE INVERSION IN NORTH 2/3           
SUPPORTING AREAS OF FREEZING FOG AND POSSIBLE HOAR FROST FORMATION              
ENHANCED BY OUR FRESH FINE...POWDERY SNOW. LEFT FOG OUT OF FORECAST             
ATTM AND PASS THIS ISSUE TO DAY SHIFT TO ASSESS FURTHER.                        
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...                                        
MAIN FOCUS IS TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS NEXT COLD               
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON THURSDAY. AREA WILL BE UNDER SURFACE AND MID            
FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGE WED. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND DEEP SNOW COVER              
WILL PREVENT MUCH TEMPERATURE RECOVERY AFTER COLD START...EVEN WITH             
FEB SUNSHINE. WILL SEE SOME WEAK WAA SWLY FLOW LATE IN THE DAY. HAVE            
CONTINUED TO TREND TOWARD COLDEST MET GUIDANCE WITH LOWER TO MID 20S            
OVER ALL BUT SNOW-FREE NE MO AND W CENTRAL IL...WHERE WE SHOULD SEE             
LOWER 30S.                                                                      
WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...00Z MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT              
WITH MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS PHASED SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA. GFS            
AND UKMET HAVE TRENDED TOWARD ECMWF SOLUTION WITH UPPER LOW                     
DEVELOPING OVER DESERT SW AND A MORE PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM                
SHORTWAVE TO PASS NORTH OF CWA THU AND THU NIGHT. FOLLOWED BLEND OF             
GFS AND ECMWF WITH INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT PASSING                   
THROUGH ON THU...WHICH DEVELOPS INTO LOW OVER LOWER MID THU NIGHT...            
THROWING OUT THE NOW OUTLIER NAM DEPICTION OF A MORE PROGRESSIVE                
SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS MN AND WI ON THU.                                     
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL WAA SWRLY FLOW WED NIGHT AND CLOUD COVER WILL              
PREVENT MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE FALL COMPARED TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH             
LOWS IN UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. ISENTROPIC SURFACES SHOW                      
SATURATION AND LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING MAINLY NORTH OF CWA LATE WED               
NIGHT...BUT THREW IN LOW CHANCE POPS IN FAR NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR                
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL FIELDS THAT FAR OUT. BEST CHANCES FOR               
SNOW WILL BE THU INTO THU NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL QG FORCING            
AND SURFACE COLD FRONT. RAISED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN CWA               
FOR THU AFTERNOON...THEN HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER ENTIRE AREA THU                  
EVENING WITH BULK OF MEASURABLE SNOW ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. HIGH                   
PRESSURE AND FRESH ARCTIC AIRMASS SLIDES OVER AREA FRI. MOISTURE AND            
QPF FIELDS SUGGEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE AT BEST. NEW           
MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO LOWER H8 TEMPERATURES AND HAVE CONTINUED TO              
TREND TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD...WITH FRI AM LOWS NOW IN SINGLE DIGITS             
AND HIGHS LIMITED RANGE OF ABOUT 10 NORTH TO 20 FAR SOUTH. KEPT FRI             
NIGHT LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH TO SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH.                             
ONLY MINOR CHANGES SAT THROUGH MON...WITH ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM               
WAVE TRYING TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH BULK OF              
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL KEPT WELL TO NORTH. ..SHEETS..                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
CLOUDY WITH LOW VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS 2-5,000` AGL AND               
VSBYS 2-6 MILES IN INTERMITTENT SNOW. CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE           
BY LATE PM INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS TO VFR UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY             
SKIES WITH VSBYS P6SM. SOME RISK AFTER 06Z OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT            
WITH LOCALIZED VSBYS AOB 1 MILE...ESPECIALLY NEAR DAWN.  ..NICHOLS..            
&&                                                                              
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IA...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NICHOLS/SHEETS                                                                  
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
216 AM MST TUE FEB 12 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL GLANCE THE FAR                 
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY IN THE FIRST PERIOD                
WITH SUBTLE H85 CAA EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA              
BEHIND DEPARTING TROUGH. THIS WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES WHEN             
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS WITH READINGS ONLY CLIMBING INTO            
THE LOW-MID 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS. SATELLITE/SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE          
WIDESPREAD MID/HIGH CLOUDS UPSTREAM IN NORTH/NORTHWEST MID/UPPER                
FLOW SUPPORTING ONLY PARTIAL INSOLATION ADDING SUPPORT FOR COOLER               
TEMPERATURES.                                                                   
HEIGHTS/THICKNESS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL              
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES ON WEDNESDAY AS MID/UPPER RIDGE                      
TRANSLATES RAPIDLY EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE IN THE                 
PERIOD. FALLING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AREA AS             
THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE IN THE PERIOD.              
THE WARMEST READINGS OF THE WEEK ARE STILL ON TAP ACROSS THE CENTRAL            
HIGH PLAINS WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS HELPING TO BOOST                     
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES.                 
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AS H5 TROUGH            
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AND APPROACHES THE SOUTHWEST.                
EXPECT A PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS             
AS LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES. ENOUGH RUN-TO-RUN                  
CONSISTENCY FROM THE GFS TO BUMP POPS UP AS CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO                
INCREASE. RELUCTANT TO MAKE BIG CHANGES ON THURSDAY WITH UNCERTAINTY            
IN AMOUNT OF MODIFICATION ARCTIC AIR WILL HAVE ON THE SOUTHWEST                 
PERIPHERY OF THERMAL TROUGH...SO FOLLOWED THE GENERAL THEME OF PREVIOUS         
FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S WHILE KEEPING POPS IN THE MID RANGE.             
TRENDED LOWS DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH PROVIDING            
LIGHT WINDS/CLEARING SKIES AND AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RAPID COOLING WITH            
FRESH SNOW.                                                                     
DAYS 4 THROUGH 7...NO CHANGES.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAF...EXPECT MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK TO HANG               
AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK. WITH               
WEAK SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND DRY LAYER AT THE SURFACE...NOT EXPECTING              
ANY PRECIP THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE             
DAY ON TUESDAY WITH RUC...GFS...AND NAM SHOWING H85 WINDS IN EXCESS             
OF 30KTS. AS A RESULT...INSERTED GUSTS FROM AROUND 18Z TUESDAY                  
THROUGH 02Z WEDNESDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX AFTER 02Z              
ALLOWING WINDS TO SUBSIDE.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MCGUIRE/FOLTZ                                                                   
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
1048 PM MST MON FEB 11 2008                                                     
.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAF...EXPECT MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK TO HANG               
AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK. WITH WEAK          
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND DRY LAYER AT THE SURFACE...NOT EXPECTING ANY               
PRECIP THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE                 
DAY ON TUESDAY WITH RUC...GFS...AND NAM SHOWING H85 WINDS IN                    
EXCESS OF 30KTS. AS A RESULT...INSERTED GUSTS FROM AROUND 18Z                   
TUESDAY THROUGH 02Z WEDNESDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX                
AFTER 02Z ALLOWING WINDS TO SUBSIDE.                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM MST MON FEB 11 2008/                         
.DISCUSSION...A WARM FRONT OVER WESTERN KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO                 
PUSH THE COLD AIR OUT OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES                
VARIED WIDELY EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WHERE KGLD AND KITR HAD                    
WARMED INTO THE LOWER 50S AND FURTHER EAST KHLC AND KMCK WERE                   
STRUGGLING OUT OF THE THIRTIES. WILL SEE THE COLD AIR CONTINUE TO               
ERODE OUT OF WESTERN KANSAS.                                                    
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME WEAK CONVECTION EAST OF THE                
FRONT RANGE IN COLORADO WHERE SOME COOLER AIR HAS BEGUN TO POOLS                
EAST MAY SEE SOME VIRGA AND SPRINKLES OVER EASTERN COLORADO                     
OTHERWISE THE FA WILL REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURE-WISE...TUESDAY LOOKS              
SIMILAR TO TODAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW RESUMES.                                     
WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS THE FA                 
EXPERIENCES AMPLE WAA. H85 TEMPERATURES WARM NEAR 14C ACROSS THE                
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT A SHORTWAVE                    
TROUGH STRENGTHENS AS IT SLIDES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER               
COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY                 
NIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP MAX TEMPERATURES THURSDAY SOME 30 DEGREES                 
COLDER THAN WEDNESDAY. FCAST MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT                 
WITH TIMING AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH                  
FRIDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND FILL IN              
TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. AM STILL NOT LOOKING FOR                
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION...FOR NOW AM THINKING LESS THAN AN              
INCH IN MOST PLACES. HOWEVER...IF THIS SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN FROM WHAT              
IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED...COULD SEE MORE ACCUMULATION. WILL                     
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.                         
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PICKS UP FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON THUS              
PUSHING THE COLD AIR OUT OF THE REGION. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY            
INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S AND SATURDAY MID/UPPER 40S SATURDAY AHEAD OF             
YET ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR TO REACH THE FORECAST AREA.                        
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONG SOLUTIONS OF THE            
SATURDAY NIGHT TROUGH AS EXPECTED WITH A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. GFS                
SHOWS MAIN TROUGH DIGGING AND EVENTUALLY JOINING WITH THE SOUTHERLY             
LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE LOW AND TROUGH             
INTERACTING CLOSER TO THE MIDWEST. MOST CANADIAN AND NCEP ENSEMBLE              
MEMBERS SEAM TO AGREE MORE WITH THE GFS SOLUTION. SLIGHT CHANCE                 
POPS WERE ADDED TO THE 00Z - 12Z SUNDAY PERIOD...IF THE GFS SOLUTION            
IS CORRECT...THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.                     
DISAGREEMENT AMONG SOLUTIONS CARRIES OVER TO TEMPERATURES WITH THE              
ECMWF ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES LOWER AT 850MB COMPARED TO GFS. FOR NOW             
FORECAST FAVORS THE GFS...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE ARE               
CONSIDERABLE CHANGES IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.                                  
&&                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FOLTZ/BURTIS                                                                    
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
1154 AM MST MON FEB 11 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...INCREASED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES IN WESTERN AREAS             
WHERE TEMPS HAVE ALREADY REACHED 51 DEGREES.  ALSO BUMPED WINDS UP              
WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN THE WEST.  LOOKS LIKE A FEW HOURS OF GOOD               
MIXING AHEAD WITH UPSTREAM GUSTS TO 38 MPH NOTED AT AKO.  NOTICED               
THAT YUMA TEMPERATURE DROPPED 2 DEGREES LAST HOUR WHICH MAY BE A                
REFLECTION OF THE MINOR 850 COOLING INDICATED ON NAM GUIDANCE COMING            
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.                               
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /1004 AM MST MON FEB 11 2008/                           
.DISCUSSION...THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO SLOWLY            
ERODE EASTWARD THIS MORNING. AT 15Z THE WESTERN EDGE LIES ABOUT ON A            
TRENTON NEBRASKA TO OAKLEY TO SCOTT CITY LINE. WEST OF THIS LINE                
SURFACE WINDS ARE WESTERLY AND TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE               
LOWER 40S WHILE FURTHER EAST WINDS ARE SOUTHERLY WITH TEMPERATURES              
HOLDING IN THE LOWER 20S.                                                       
LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL SLIP EASTWARD TO             
THE HILL CITY AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. IN LIGHT OF CURRENT SURFACE               
DATA AND TRENDS HAVE INCREASED MAX TEMPERATURES OVER COLORADO AND               
WESTERN TIER OF KANSAS COUNTIES TO 50 DEGREES WHILE MAINTAINING                 
PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGH IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE EAST. CURRENT                    
TEMPERATURE AT GLD IS 44 DEGREES BUT NAM GUIDANCE SHOWS COOLING AT              
850 MB DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK.            
ONE CONCERN FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS THE AMOUNT OF WIND TO IMPACT THE              
COLORADO AND EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS COUNTIES. LATEST RUC AND NAM                
SHOW ABOUT A 4 HOUR PERIOD WHERE 850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40-45                 
KTS.  MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL MIX THAT LAYER TO THE             
SURFACE. BUFKIT SHOWS STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS BUT LITTLE MIXING INTO             
THAT LAYER.  FOR NOW HAVE DECIDED TO STICK WITH CURRENT GRIDS WHICH             
HAVE 15-25 MPH NW WINDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL MONITOR SITUATION.          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAFS...LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO ERODE QUICKLY               
WITH WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE                
REGION SHORTLY. FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS            
AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK WITH ONLY HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS. LOOKING AT                  
PROFILER DATA AND UPSTREAM OBS...WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE AT 850              
AND 700MB ARE AS HIGH AS 50KTS. EXPECTATION IS THAT AT LEAST A                  
FRACTION OF THOSE WINDS WILL MIX DOWN...AND BELIEVE THAT MODEL WINDS            
ARE UNDERDONE THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH AFTER 00Z               
WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL MIXING AND A DECREASE IN THE PRESSURE                  
GRADIENT.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DLF/JOHNSON                                                                     
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
1144 AM CST MON FEB 11 2008                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR 18Z TAFS...MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE              
LOW CLOUDS.                                                                     
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT KCNU                   
THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z IF NOT LONGER. OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS CIGS                
HAVE EVEN DROPPED TO BELOW LIFR. WENT AHEAD AND PUT A TEMPO IN AT               
KICT FOR IFR CIGS AS A SMALL BAND OF LOWER CLOUDS HAS BEEN LINGERING            
OVER NORTHERN SG COUNTY  FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS AND IS ATTEMPTING TO            
PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH. FURTHER NORTH CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT VFR                    
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KRSL AND KSLN THROUGH 00Z.                           
A FAST MOVING UPPER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA             
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN            
SURFACE WINDS FLIPPING AROUND TO THE NORTH AFTER DARK OVER CENTRAL              
KS BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR AND LOWER CIGS. AT THIS POINT            
AM GOING WITH THE THINKING THAT CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE IFR AS             
THE COOLER AIR MOVES IN OVERNIGHT AREAWIDE.                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CST MON FEB 11 2008/                        
UPDATE...                                                                       
WILL FIRE OUT INITIAL UPDATE TO CANCEL PORTIONS OF HEADLINES AND TO             
TWEAK PRECIP CHANCES.                                                           
PRECIP COVERAGE OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAS PUSHED SLOWLY                 
SOUTHEAST INTO EXTREME SE KS. RUC ANALYSIS IS INDICATING THE BEST               
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT HAS NOW FOCUSED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MO              
WHERE PRECIP IS MORE WIDESPREAD. RUC AND NAM BOTH AGREE ON KEEPING              
THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES OVER EXTREME SE KS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.              
THEREFORE WILL TRIM BACK PRECIP CHANCES FURTHER WEST AND CANCEL A               
FEW COUNTIES FROM HEADLINES. AT THIS TIME AM MOST CONCERNED WITH                
LABETTE AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES PICKING UP ADDITION ICE ACCUMULATION.           
LAWSON                                                                          
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CST MON FEB 11 2008/                          
UPDATE...                                                                       
THOUGH PRECIP ABOUT DONE IN THE WICHITA AREA...WILL CONTINUE THE                
ADVISORY THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH TO SCHOOL/WORK DUE TO SLICK                   
CONDITIONS FROM EARLIER SLEET/HAIL AND FREEZING RAIN. THE MORE                  
SIGNIFICANT ICE WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO                 
MIDDAY...WHERE ACCUMS ALREADY TO ONE-HALF INCH IN SOME AREAS.                   
KED                                                                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
FOR THE 12Z TAF SUITE...AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND THUNDER                
WILL CONTINUE FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO MIDDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS                 
EXPECTED WITH THE WINTRY PRECIP...WITH MAINLY VFR STRATOCU CIGS                 
FURTHER WEST ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS. THE MIXED PRECIP                   
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY VFR                 
CIGS FOR LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.                           
KED                                                                             
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CST MON FEB 11 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS HOW MUCH ICE ACCUMULATION THE SOUTHEAST                
HALF OF THE AREA WILL SEE TODAY AND WHEN IT WILL END.                           
TODAY-TONIGHT:                                                                  
LOW LEVELS ARE MOISTENING UP ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN             
KANSAS THIS MORNING...AND PRECIPITATION IS ONGOING EARLY THIS                   
MORNING. AT THIS POINT PRECIPITATION TYPE HAS BEEN MAINLY                       
SLEET...WHICH AGREES WITH WHAT THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING               
FOR 06Z TO 12Z. AFTER 12Z...THE LOWER LEVELS WARM UP AND FREEZING               
RAIN IS MOST LIKELY. MOISTURE TRANSPORT KEEPS BEST CHANCES FOR                  
PRECIPITATION TOWARD SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND THAT IS WHERE THE BETTER            
INSTABILITY IS AS WELL. WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED THUNDER                   
ESPECIALLY IN FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z. BEST 3-6KM              
SHEAR (50 TO 60 KNOTS) IS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM ABOUT WELLINGTON             
TO YATES CENTER BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. HIGHEST QPF WILL BE WHERE THERE            
ARE THUNDERSTORMS...AND SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD HAVE SOME             
SMALL HAIL AS WELL.                                                             
A COUPLE CHANGES TO HEADLINES TODAY. PER RADAR TRENDS THIS                      
MORNING...WILL ISSUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR                                
RENO...KINGMAN...HARPER AND HARVEY COUNTIES UNTIL 15Z. ALSO...GIVEN             
HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION COWLEY COUNTY HAS ALREADY RECEIVED...WILL                
UPGRADE THEM TO A WARNING. OTHERWISE...BETWEEN THE THUNDERSTORM                 
POTENTIAL AND THE LONGER DURATION OF PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHEAST                 
KANSAS...WE WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER STORM WARNING AS IS. THE                   
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WARNING MAY NEED TO BE DOWNGRADED LATER THIS            
MORNING IF IT LOOKS LIKE THOSE COUNTIES (MAINLY WOODSON...ALLEN AND             
CHASE) WILL NOT RECEIVE AS MUCH QPF AS IS THEIR POTENTIAL. AS FOR               
THE ADVISORY...NO OTHER CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THAT EITHER. WESTERN            
FRINGE OF COUNTIES MIGHT NOT SEE MUCH ICE...BUT IT DOES NOT TAKE                
MUCH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS ON ROADWAYS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE DURING              
THE MORNING COMMUTE.                                                            
BOTH NAM AND GFS SHOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING BELOW 800MB BY               
00Z FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONLY EXCEPTION IS VERY            
FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THEREFORE HAVE MADE THE NECESSARY CHANGES FOR             
TONIGHT.                                                                        
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY:                                                              
SOUNDINGS DRY OUT AND SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THIS PART            
OF THE FORECAST WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. NEXT LOW BEGINS            
TO DEEPEN IN THE ROCKIES...WHICH WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA ON               
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE ON                
TUESDAY...AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING                     
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S BEFORE THE NEXT COOL DOWN.                              
THURSDAY-SUNDAY:                                                                
THE NEXT LOW FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL HAVE MORE MOISTURE THAN              
THE SYSTEM THIS MORNING...AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES WOULD INDICATE               
SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN                 
AGAIN ON FRIDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...KEEPING THE                   
FORECAST AREA DRY DURING THAT TIME. FORECAST FOR THIS TIME FRAME                
LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK...SO NO CHANGES MADE.                                      
SCHRECK                                                                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
06Z TAFS...ICT/SLN/HUT/CNU/RSL...LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS ON THE               
INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...AND IS EVIDENT IN                 
FREEZING RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA OVER                  
THE PAST FEW HOURS. WOULD EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE                      
SPREADING/DEVELOPING NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD AS THE OVERNIGHT                       
PROGRESSES AS LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT                       
CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHEAST...AND EVENTUALLY GET INTO PORTIONS                
OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY 10Z (4AM) OR SO. CNU HAS               
THE BEST CHANCE OF BEING AFFECTED...WITH ICT PROBABLY BEING                     
AFFECTED BRIEFLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ALSO                
INSERTED VCTS WORDING IN THE CNU TAF...DUE TO SOME ELEVATED                     
INSTABILITY.                                                                    
KLEINSASSER                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    38  22  41  25 /  10  10  10   0                                
HUTCHINSON      39  18  43  24 /  10  10  10   0                                
NEWTON          37  21  39  25 /  10  10  10   0                                
ELDORADO        36  21  38  23 /  10  10  10   0                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   38  24  42  27 /  20  10  10   0                                
RUSSELL         39  20  42  25 /  10  10   0   0                                
GREAT BEND      41  20  44  25 /  10  10   0   0                                
SALINA          36  18  37  25 /  10  10   0   0                                
MCPHERSON       38  19  40  24 /  10  10  10   0                                
COFFEYVILLE     34  27  38  23 /  70  40  10   0                                
CHANUTE         33  23  37  22 /  20  10  10   0                                
IOLA            33  21  36  22 /  10  10  10   0                                
PARSONS-KPPF    34  24  38  21 /  50  20  10   0                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                          
KSZ094>096-098>100.                                                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
1004 AM MST MON FEB 11 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO SLOWLY            
ERODE EASTWARD THIS MORNING. AT 15Z THE WESTERN EDGE LIES ABOUT ON A            
TRENTON NEBRASKA TO OAKLEY TO SCOTT CITY LINE. WEST OF THIS LINE                
SURFACE WINDS ARE WESTERLY AND TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE               
LOWER 40S WHILE FURTHER EAST WINDS ARE SOUTHERLY WITH TEMPERATURES              
HOLDING IN THE LOWER 20S.                                                       
LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL SLIP EASTWARD TO             
THE HILL CITY AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. IN LIGHT OF CURRENT SURFACE               
DATA AND TRENDS HAVE INCREASED MAX TEMPERATURES OVER COLORADO AND               
WESTERN TIER OF KANSAS COUNTIES TO 50 DEGREES WHILE MAINTAINING                 
PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGH IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE EAST. CURRENT                    
TEMPERATURE AT GLD IS 44 DEGREES BUT NAM GUIDANCE SHOWS COOLING AT              
850 MB DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK.            
ONE CONCERN FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS THE AMOUNT OF WIND TO IMPACT THE              
COLORADO AND EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS COUNTIES. LATEST RUC AND NAM                
SHOW ABOUT A 4 HOUR PERIOD WHERE 850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40-45                 
KTS.  MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL MIX THAT LAYER TO THE             
SURFACE. BUFKIT SHOWS STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS BUT LITTLE MIXING INTO             
THAT LAYER.  FOR NOW HAVE DECIDED TO STICK WITH CURRENT GRIDS WHICH             
HAVE 15-25 MPH NW WINDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL MONITOR SITUATION.          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAFS...LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO ERODE QUICKLY               
WITH WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE                
REGION SHORTLY. FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS            
AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK WITH ONLY HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS. LOOKING AT                  
PROFILER DATA AND UPSTREAM OBS...WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE AT 850              
AND 700MB ARE AS HIGH AS 50KTS. EXPECTATION IS THAT AT LEAST A                  
FRACTION OF THOSE WINDS WILL MIX DOWN...AND BELIEVE THAT MODEL WINDS            
ARE UNDERDONE THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH AFTER 00Z               
WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL MIXING AND A DECREASE IN THE PRESSURE                  
GRADIENT.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1235 AM MST MON FEB 11 2008/                    
.DISCUSSION...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES               
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST IMPACTING THE CENTRAL                
HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY EVENING             
HOURS. ONLY A MINOR IMPACT IS EXPECTED WITH LATE AFTERNOON                      
VIRGA/PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY WEIGHTED ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES.           
A SECONDARY CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS AND WILL                 
TREND SPEEDS UP SLIGHTLY AS CROSS-SECTIONS OF WIND/MIXING LAYER                 
HEIGHT SUGGEST 25-30 KNOTS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER WITH INCREASING                   
CLOUDS/COLD GROUND TEMPERATURES THE DEPTH OF MIXING REMAINS                     
UNCERTAIN. 07Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS                 
RETREATED EAST WITH TEMPERATURES STEADY/SLOWLY RISING ACROSS MUCH OF            
THE WESTERN ZONES. HOW FAR EAST THE BOUNDARY MIXES REMAINS UNCERTAIN            
AND WILL LEAN COOLER ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR                
UNCERTAINTY WHILE BOOSTING HIGHS IN TO THE MID 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE           
WEST.                                                                           
HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH MID            
40S EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST                    
CAPTURED THIS WELL WITH LITTLE CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.                    
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH                       
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPE HELPING TO BOOST TEMPERATURES            
INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE                    
NORTHERN PLAINS/CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE A COLD FRONT              
MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT              
WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACHING TROUGH. THE PREVIOUS             
FORECAST CAPTURED THE ANTICIPATED SCENARIO WELL WITH MID POPS AND               
SEE LITTLE REASON TO DEVIATE AT THIS TIME.                                      
DAYS 4 THROUGH 7...NO CHANGES.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...STRATUS REMAINS THE FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH 12Z AT               
KGLD/KMCK. LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPED AS EXPECTED AROUND SUNSET...BUT                 
SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPE WINDS ARE SLOWLY DRYING THE AIR MASS WEST OF                
KGLD. CEILINGS ROSE RAPIDLY AT KITR WHEN DOWNSLOPE WINDS DEVELOPED              
THERE. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS MOVING EAST OF KGLD.               
WILL KEEP IFR CEILINGS THERE FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT WILL RAISE THEM              
TO VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 10Z. KMCK IS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF LOW                 
CLOUDS...BUT SOME SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT IS TAKING PLACE BETWEEN KLBF            
AND KIML. WILL MENTION SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 2000 FEET WITH A                 
TEMPO MVFR GROUP THROUGH 10Z...THEN GRADUALLY RAISE CEILINGS TO VFR.            
SHOULD HAVE ABUNDANT MID LEVEL CLOUDS THE REST OF THE DAY AT BOTH               
SITES.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MCGUIRE/MENTZER/DLF/JOHNSON                                                     
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
1033 AM CST MON FEB 11 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WILL FIRE OUT INITIAL UPDATE TO CANCEL PORTIONS OF HEADLINES AND TO             
TWEAK PRECIP CHANCES.                                                           
PRECIP COVERAGE OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAS PUSHED SLOWLY                 
SOUTHEAST INTO EXTREME SE KS. RUC ANALYSIS IS INDICATING THE BEST               
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT HAS NOW FOCUSED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MO              
WHERE PRECIP IS MORE WIDESPREAD. RUC AND NAM BOTH AGREE ON KEEPING              
THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES OVER EXTREME SE KS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.              
THEREFORE WILL TRIM BACK PRECIP CHANCES FURTHER WEST AND CANCEL A               
FEW COUNTIES FROM HEADLINES. AT THIS TIME AM MOST CONCERNED WITH                
LABETTE AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES PICKING UP ADDITION ICE ACCUMULATION.           
LAWSON                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CST MON FEB 11 2008/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
THOUGH PRECIP ABOUT DONE IN THE WICHITA AREA...WILL CONTINUE THE                
ADVISORY THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH TO SCHOOL/WORK DUE TO SLICK                   
CONDITIONS FROM EARLIER SLEET/HAIL AND FREEZING RAIN. THE MORE                  
SIGNIFICANT ICE WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO                 
MIDDAY...WHERE ACCUMS ALREADY TO ONE-HALF INCH IN SOME AREAS.                   
KED                                                                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
FOR THE 12Z TAF SUITE...AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND THUNDER                
WILL CONTINUE FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO MIDDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS                 
EXPECTED WITH THE WINTRY PRECIP...WITH MAINLY VFR STRATOCU CIGS                 
FURTHER WEST ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS. THE MIXED PRECIP                   
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY VFR                 
CIGS FOR LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.                           
KED                                                                             
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CST MON FEB 11 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS HOW MUCH ICE ACCUMULATION THE SOUTHEAST                
HALF OF THE AREA WILL SEE TODAY AND WHEN IT WILL END.                           
TODAY-TONIGHT:                                                                  
LOW LEVELS ARE MOISTENING UP ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN             
KANSAS THIS MORNING...AND PRECIPITATION IS ONGOING EARLY THIS                   
MORNING. AT THIS POINT PRECIPITATION TYPE HAS BEEN MAINLY                       
SLEET...WHICH AGREES WITH WHAT THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING               
FOR 06Z TO 12Z. AFTER 12Z...THE LOWER LEVELS WARM UP AND FREEZING               
RAIN IS MOST LIKELY. MOISTURE TRANSPORT KEEPS BEST CHANCES FOR                  
PRECIPITATION TOWARD SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND THAT IS WHERE THE BETTER            
INSTABILITY IS AS WELL. WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED THUNDER                   
ESPECIALLY IN FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z. BEST 3-6KM              
SHEAR (50 TO 60 KNOTS) IS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM ABOUT WELLINGTON             
TO YATES CENTER BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. HIGHEST QPF WILL BE WHERE THERE            
ARE THUNDERSTORMS...AND SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD HAVE SOME             
SMALL HAIL AS WELL.                                                             
A COUPLE CHANGES TO HEADLINES TODAY. PER RADAR TRENDS THIS                      
MORNING...WILL ISSUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR                                
RENO...KINGMAN...HARPER AND HARVEY COUNTIES UNTIL 15Z. ALSO...GIVEN             
HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION COWLEY COUNTY HAS ALREADY RECEIVED...WILL                
UPGRADE THEM TO A WARNING. OTHERWISE...BETWEEN THE THUNDERSTORM                 
POTENTIAL AND THE LONGER DURATION OF PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHEAST                 
KANSAS...WE WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER STORM WARNING AS IS. THE                   
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WARNING MAY NEED TO BE DOWNGRADED LATER THIS            
MORNING IF IT LOOKS LIKE THOSE COUNTIES (MAINLY WOODSON...ALLEN AND             
CHASE) WILL NOT RECEIVE AS MUCH QPF AS IS THEIR POTENTIAL. AS FOR               
THE ADVISORY...NO OTHER CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THAT EITHER. WESTERN            
FRINGE OF COUNTIES MIGHT NOT SEE MUCH ICE...BUT IT DOES NOT TAKE                
MUCH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS ON ROADWAYS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE DURING              
THE MORNING COMMUTE.                                                            
BOTH NAM AND GFS SHOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING BELOW 800MB BY               
00Z FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONLY EXCEPTION IS VERY            
FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THEREFORE HAVE MADE THE NECESSARY CHANGES FOR             
TONIGHT.                                                                        
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY:                                                              
SOUNDINGS DRY OUT AND SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THIS PART            
OF THE FORECAST WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. NEXT LOW BEGINS            
TO DEEPEN IN THE ROCKIES...WHICH WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA ON               
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE ON                
TUESDAY...AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING                     
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S BEFORE THE NEXT COOL DOWN.                              
THURSDAY-SUNDAY:                                                                
THE NEXT LOW FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL HAVE MORE MOISTURE THAN              
THE SYSTEM THIS MORNING...AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES WOULD INDICATE               
SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN                 
AGAIN ON FRIDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...KEEPING THE                   
FORECAST AREA DRY DURING THAT TIME. FORECAST FOR THIS TIME FRAME                
LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK...SO NO CHANGES MADE.                                      
SCHRECK                                                                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
06Z TAFS...ICT/SLN/HUT/CNU/RSL...LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS ON THE               
INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...AND IS EVIDENT IN                 
FREEZING RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA OVER                  
THE PAST FEW HOURS. WOULD EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE                      
SPREADING/DEVELOPING NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD AS THE OVERNIGHT                       
PROGRESSES AS LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT                       
CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHEAST...AND EVENTUALLY GET INTO PORTIONS                
OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY 10Z (4AM) OR SO. CNU HAS               
THE BEST CHANCE OF BEING AFFECTED...WITH ICT PROBABLY BEING                     
AFFECTED BRIEFLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ALSO                
INSERTED VCTS WORDING IN THE CNU TAF...DUE TO SOME ELEVATED                     
INSTABILITY.                                                                    
KLEINSASSER                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    38  22  41  25 /  10  10  10   0                                
HUTCHINSON      39  18  43  24 /  10  10  10   0                                
NEWTON          37  21  39  25 /  10  10  10   0                                
ELDORADO        36  21  38  23 /  10  10  10   0                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   38  24  42  27 /  20  10  10   0                                
RUSSELL         39  20  42  25 /  10  10   0   0                                
GREAT BEND      41  20  44  25 /  10  10   0   0                                
SALINA          36  18  37  25 /  10  10   0   0                                
MCPHERSON       38  19  40  24 /  10  10  10   0                                
COFFEYVILLE     34  27  38  23 /  70  40  10   0                                
CHANUTE         33  23  37  22 /  20  10  10   0                                
IOLA            33  21  36  22 /  10  10  10   0                                
PARSONS-KPPF    34  24  38  21 /  50  20  10   0                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                          
KSZ094>096-098>100.                                                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
1142 PM CST SUN FEB 10 2008                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
06Z TAFS...ICT/SLN/HUT/CNU/RSL...LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS ON THE               
INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...AND IS EVIDENT IN                 
FREEZING RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA OVER                  
THE PAST FEW HOURS. WOULD EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE                      
SPREADING/DEVELOPING NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD AS THE OVERNIGHT                       
PROGRESSES AS LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT                       
CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHEAST...AND EVENTUALLY GET INTO PORTIONS                
OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY 10Z (4AM) OR SO. CNU HAS               
THE BEST CHANCE OF BEING AFFECTED...WITH ICT PROBABLY BEING                     
AFFECTED BRIEFLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ALSO                
INSERTED VCTS WORDING IN THE CNU TAF...DUE TO SOME ELEVATED                     
INSTABILITY.                                                                    
KLEINSASSER                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 946 PM CST SUN FEB 10 2008/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
SENT AN UPDATE TO INCLUDE SEDGWICK AND SUMNER COUNTIES IN A WINTER              
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. 00Z                 
NAM AND RUC 925-850MB MOISTURE FIELDS INITIALIZED WELL WITH 00Z                 
RAOBS.                                                                          
LATEST DATA CONTINUES TO SUGGEST GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ICE                     
ACCUMULATIONS OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WHERE LOW-LEVEL WARM                      
ADVECTION...MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED.               
WILL CONTINUE WINTER STORM WARNING THERE...WHERE DEEP MOIST                     
ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD RESULT IN RAPID ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF                  
GREATER THAN ONE-QUARTER INCH. THINKING WICHITA WILL BE ON THE                  
WEST/NORTHWEST FRINGES OF THE FREEZING PRECIPITATION.                           
HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE POTENTIAL WILL OCCUR DURING THE MORNING                
COMMUTE...THOUGHT IT PRUDENT TO INCLUDE SEDGWICK AND SUMNER                     
COUNTIES IN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WHERE ICE ACCUMULATIONS                 
MAY APPROACH ONE-EIGHTH OF AN INCH.                                             
KLEINSASSER                                                                     
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 PM CST SUN FEB 10 2008/                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
00Z TAFS...ICT/SLN/HUT/CNU/RSL...CHALLENGING TAF FORECAST...WITH                
LOW CLOUDS AND FREEZING RAIN MOVING IN TOWARD 09-10Z (3-4AM)...AS               
LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT COMMENCE IN                  
ASSOCIATION WITH 40-50 KT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET. THE                
BEST POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR GENERALLY EAST OF THE               
TURNPIKE...AND IT APPEARS IMMINENT FOR FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS.                    
ELEVATED INSTABILITY PER MODEL SOUNDINGS WILL BE APPROACHING                    
500-700 J/KG...SO THERE WILL BE A FEW EMBEDDED                                  
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WHICH WILL AID IN ICE                     
ACCUMULATIONS. WITH LOSS OF INSTABILITY...FREEZING RAIN SHOULD                  
TRANSITION TO FREEZING DRIZZLE BY AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS.              
HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO WARM                    
TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE FREEZING BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND CHANGE THE              
PRECIPITATION TYPE TO DRIZZLE. ALL IN ALL...SOUTHEAST KANSAS COULD              
SEE ICE ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 1/4 AND 1/2 INCH.                                 
KLEINSASSER                                                                     
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CST SUN FEB 10 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN...POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ICING LATE                    
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS.                                    
TONIGHT-MONDAY:                                                                 
ARCTIC AIR NOW WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS KANSAS...WITH TEMPS IN OUR                
AREA REMAINING BELOW FREEZING THIS PM ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE               
SINGLE DIGITS. GFS/UKMET/NAM-WRF SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT              
ICE ACCUMULATIONS FOR SERN KS FOR LATE TONIGHT-MONDAY. IMPRESSIVE               
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN ASSOCIATION WITH               
45-50 KT SWRLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN SATURATION OF THE WARM              
LAYER ALOFT THRU 750 MB...WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY EVIDENT ON                  
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO                    
DEVELOP BY DAYBREAK AND BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS SERN KS. THE                   
INSTABILITY ALSO SUPPORTS CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AND LOCALLY HEAVIER               
FREEZING RAIN. QPF OF AROUND 0.20 TO 0.30 ON THE GFS/WRFARW32                   
ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS IN CONVECTION SUPPORT UPGRADING              
MOST OF THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO A WARNING WITH THIS PACKAGE. THE              
NWRN-MOST COUNTIES OF THE WATCH (FLINT HILLS) WILL BE PUT IN A WINTER WX        
ADVISORY...WHERE MORE CONFIDENT FREEZING RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS              
THAN ONE-QUARTER INCH. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT LATER SHIFTS MAY               
NEED TO EXPAND THE WINTER WX ADVISORY WWD INTO THE WICHITA METRO                
AREA FOR MONDAY MORNING (INCLUDING RUSH HOUR). FAR SERN KS WILL                 
REMAIN UNDER CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION THE LONGEST INTO MONDAY AND                   
THEREFORE HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET TO FREEZING UNTIL LATE IN THE               
DAY IF AT ALL. SO EXTENDING THE WARNING TIL 21Z MON. THE DEEPER                 
MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO GET SHUNTED EWD MON NIGHT AS THE UPPER                   
TROF/MID LEVEL CAA ARRIVE. SO ALTHOUGH THE PRECIPITATION MAY                    
BRIEFLY TRANSITION TO FROZEN FORM BEFORE ENDING...PRECIPITATION                 
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN RAPIDLY FROM W-E ACROSS OUR                   
AREA.                                                                           
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY:                                                              
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA...WITH            
THE NEXT STRONG UPPER TROF/LOW DIGGING TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES.          
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES PROGGED TUESDAY. THEN TEMPERATURES WILL                
WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS WED-WED NIGHT AS PRESSURE FALLS TO THE            
LEE OF THE ROCKIES INDUCE A STRONG SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WITH A                   
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT                
ARCTIC FRONT.                                                                   
THURSDAY-SUNDAY:                                                                
REGARDING THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW EJECTION FROM THE SOUTHERN              
ROCKIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...PREFER THE 00Z ECMWF OVER THE              
LATEST GFS. DPROG/DT ANALYSIS INDICATES THE GFS HAS POOR CONTINUITY             
WITH THIS FEATURE CENTERED ON FRI...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING BETTER               
CONTINUITY ON POSITIONING AND MAINTAINING AN UPPER LOW. BOTH MODELS             
DO AGREE THAT THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL PLUNGE SEWD THRU OUR AREA                   
THURS/THURS EVE WITH MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVING. LOWERED HIGHS FRI                
SUBSTANTIALLY GIVEN LATEST MODEL TRENDS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE                 
(~30%) OF MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION WITH BOTH THE ARCTIC FRONT                 
MOVING THRU...AND WITH THE UPPER LOW TRACKING BY TO OUR S ACROSS                
OK/TX. THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE DRY AND NEAR NORMAL               
TEMPS.                                                                          
JMC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    17  38  25  43 /  30  60  20  10                                
HUTCHINSON      16  39  23  43 /  20  30  20  10                                
NEWTON          16  37  24  42 /  20  40  20  10                                
ELDORADO        16  36  24  42 /  30  60  30  10                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   19  38  27  43 /  50  70  40  10                                
RUSSELL         15  39  21  44 /  10  20  10   0                                
GREAT BEND      16  41  22  44 /  10  20  10   0                                
SALINA          14  36  23  43 /  10  30  20   0                                
MCPHERSON       15  38  23  43 /  10  30  20  10                                
COFFEYVILLE     19  34  28  41 /  50  80  50  10                                
CHANUTE         16  33  26  40 /  50  80  50  10                                
IOLA            16  33  25  40 /  40  80  50  10                                
PARSONS-KPPF    18  34  27  40 /  50  80  50  10                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM CST MONDAY FOR KSZ053-                
069-070-083-092-093.                                                            
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 3 PM CST MONDAY FOR KSZ071-072-               
094>096-098>100.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                             
552 AM CST MON FEB 11 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS THE WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION                   
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.                           
LATEST FORECAST MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE                   
ANTICIPATED WINTER WEATHER SCENARIO...BUT DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN.             
THE GFS IS STILL THE WARMEST MODEL...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT WHEN IT                 
WARMS SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING OVER A LARGE PART OF THE              
AREA. THE NAM REMAINS THE COLDER MODEL...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES              
REMAINING AT OR BELOW FREEZING OVER ALL BUT MOST OF WESTERN                     
KENTUCKY TONIGHT. REALITY WILL PROBABLY LIE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN...             
SO WE DECIDED TO USE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM FOR THIS FORECAST               
PACKAGE.                                                                        
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES PRECIPITATION ALREADY OVERSPREADING              
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MISSOURI. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS A STORM              
SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TRACKS NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE LOWER              
OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. AS THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO SPREAD INTO THE             
AREA...TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO START            
OUT AS SNOW OR SLEET OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...            
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA LATE THIS MORNING INTO                
THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER SOUTH...A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN                
IS EXPECTED OVER THE REST OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...          
INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY.                                              
SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE              
FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...WE EXPANDED THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO            
INCLUDE ALL AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM POPLAR BLUFF                   
MISSOURI TO PADUCAH AND CALHOUN KENTUCKY. A CORE OF SIGNIFICANT                 
ICING IS MOST LIKELY FROM PERRYVILLE MISSOURI EAST ACROSS THE                   
ILLINOIS ROUTE 13 CORRIDOR FROM CARBONDALE TO HARRISBURG...THEN TO              
EVANSVILLE INDIANA...WHERE A GLAZE OF ONE HALF INCH OF ICE MAY                  
ACCUMULATE BY LATE TONIGHT. FARTHER NORTH NEAR THE INTERSTATE 64                
CORRIDOR IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA...MAINLY SNOW               
IS EXPECTED...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 INCHES OR               
MORE.                                                                           
THE ONE FACTOR THAT COULD REALLY IMPACT THESE VALUES EVEN MORE IS               
THE IMPACT OF CONVECTION. SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE MUCH OF THE                     
FORECAST AREA IN GENERAL THUNDER FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. WE                
ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDER TO MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA              
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT GIVEN THE ONGOING CONVECTION                    
ALREADY TAKING PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.             
GENERALLY USED THE RUC13 TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING...WITH A BLEND OF            
NAM AND GFS GUIDANCE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. WE MADE NO CHANGES            
TO THE FORECAST BEYOND TUESDAY NIGHT.                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WINDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE PRIMARILY FROM THE EAST AS                 
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WINTRY PRECIPITATION          
WILL OVERSPREAD AREA FORECAST TERMINALS LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS              
AFTERNOON...WITH SIGNIFICANT ICING POSSIBLE FROM KCGI AND KPAH TO               
KEVV AND KOWB THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. VFR CEILINGS WILL LOWER               
TO MVFR AS THE PRECIPITATION INCREASES IN INTENSITY THIS EVENING...             
AND MAY EVEN TEETER ON IFR CONDITIONS FOR BRIEF INTERVALS OVERNIGHT.            
&&                                                                              
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR               
     BALLARD-CRITTENDEN-DAVIESS-HENDERSON-LIVINGSTON-MCCRACKEN-                 
     MCLEAN-UNION KY-WEBSTER.                                                   
MO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR BOLLINGER-BUTLER-          
     CAPE GIRARDEAU-CARTER-PERRY MO-RIPLEY-SCOTT-STODDARD-WAYNE                 
     MO.                                                                        
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR               
     EDWARDS-FRANKLIN-GALLATIN-HAMILTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-               
     MASSAC-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-WABASH-WAYNE IL-WHITE-WILLIAMSON.               
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR ALEXANDER-                 
     JACKSON-PERRY IL-UNION IL.                                                 
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR               
     GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-SPENCER-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK.                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC                             
643 PM EST TUE FEB 12 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE REGION WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE              
WILL FORM A DOMINANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON                
OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. WARMER AIR RIDING OVER SHALLOW COLD AIR            
WILL GIVE WAY TO BOUTS OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION. FREEZING RAIN IS              
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY CHANGE TO RAIN BY WED MORNING FROM SOUTH TO                  
NORTH. THE NEW LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN NORTH               
CAROLINA COULD PRODUCE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION            
ENDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION                  
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN STORM MAY IMPACT THE               
REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...                                    
HEADS UP...ICE STORM WARNING GOING UP FOR AREA EAST OF THE BLUE                 
RIDGE INCLUDING WASHINGTON DC/BALTIMORE MD AND CHARLOTTESVILLE.                 
UPDATED WSW OUT SHORTLY. COUNTIES NOT IN THE ICE STORM WARNING                  
THAT ARE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INCLUDE NELSON AND KING GEORGE                  
VIRGINIA AND CALVERT MARYLAND WHICH WILL REMAIN IN A WINTER                     
WEATHER ADVISORY...AND ST. MARYS COUNTY MARYLAND WHICH WILL REMAIN              
WITHOUT ANY WARNING/ADVISORY.                                                   
TEMPERATURE PROFILES FROM LATEST NAM/RUC AND LOCAL MODELS FOR                   
DC/BALT REGION...AND QPF POTENTIAL OF UP TO ONE HALF INCH EAST OF               
THE BLUE RIDGE...SEE POTENTIAL FOR ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF                    
ICING. COORDINATION WITH NCEP/HPC IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS UPGRADE.               
FORECAST IN PROCESS OF BEING UPDATED NOW. DETAILS IN THIS                       
DICUSSION LATER.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...                  
THE QUESTION MARK FOR TONIGHT IS HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL FALL               
OVERNIGHT. IF THERE ENDS UP BEING MORE PRECIP...AN ICE STORM WARNING            
MAY BE REQUIRED FOR EASTERNMOST WV AND WEST CENTRAL MD AT SOME POINT            
IN THE FUTURE. THEY CERTAINLY DO NOT LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BREAK                  
FREEZING FOR QUITE SOME TIME. IF THERE IS LESSER PRECIP...THE                   
ADVISORY WITH 1 TO 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE SHOULD HOLD. AM                   
EXPECTING ALL RAIN AT 7AM WED WITH OVC SKIES AND A THERMOCLINE OVER             
THE AREA BETWEEN 33 IN WEST CENTRAL MD TO MID 40S IN LOWER S MD.                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                 
WAVES OF LOW PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 36 HRS            
KEEPING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP. MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL WITH 1.25+            
PWATS AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS FOR DECENT AMT OF PRECIP. TEMPS WED                
MORNING SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING FOR ALL RAIN MOST OF THE DAY.             
12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT UPPER TROUGH            
COMING FROM THE MIDWEST WILL CLOSE OFF AS IT TRAVERSES THE AREA.                
THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRES AND FRONTAL ZONE                   
DEVELOPING OVR ERN NC. COLD POOL MOVING OVERHEAD AND STRONG VERTICAL            
MOTION WILL LEAD TO PRECIP CHANGING BACK TO SNOW BEFORE IT ENDS. 12Z            
GFS SHOWS INDICATES A HEAVY BURST OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR AREAS                 
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW            
NIGHT BEFORE PRECIP MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY THU MORNING. ANOTHER                   
ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED LATE TOMORROW.                                         
THINGS QUIET DOWN THU-FRI WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SOME PRECIP FRI                
NIGHT. A MORE SIG STORM WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE AREA LATE SUN INTO               
MONDAY AS PHASING OF BOTH NRN AND SRN STREAM OCCURS OVER THE MIDDLE             
OF THE COUNTRY. THE MORE RELIABLE EUROPEAN SOLUTION INDICATES A                 
TRACK WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA FOR ALL RAIN BUT THE GFS                
SUGGEST A SIG WINTER PRECIP FOR FAR WRN MD AND POINTS NORTH.                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                     
OVERCAST 040 FOR MOST OF THE TAF SITES WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AS                  
PRECIP DEVELPS. THAT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF WINTERY MIX MID                     
AFTERNOON...ZR LATE AFTERNOON...THEN CHANGING TO RAIN FROM S TO N               
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. HGR AND MRB MAY NOT CHANGE             
TO RAIN UNTIL 12Z WED.                                                          
LIFR CONDITIONS ON WED SLOWLY IMPROVING TO VFR WED NIGHT. NO SIG                
WEATHER EXPECTED THU AND FRI. NEXT SIG STORM LATE SUN AND MON WITH              
RAIN MOST LIKELY.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ON MOST OF THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC FROM            
TIME TO TIME WILL REQUIRE THE SMALL CRAFT ADV TO BE CONTINUED UNTIL             
10Z EARLY WED MORNING.                                                          
SCA EXPECTED WED NIGHT.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
DC...ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR DCZ001.                     
MD...ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ004>007-                 
     009>011-013-014-016.                                                       
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ003-               
     018-501-502.                                                               
VA...ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ037>042-                 
     050>056.                                                                   
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ021-               
     025>031-036-057.                                                           
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR                       
     WVZ050>055-501>504.                                                        
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ531>534-          
     537.                                                                       
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY              
     FOR ANZ530>537.                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...LFR                                                                  
NEAR TERM...BJL/BPP/LFR/SMZ                                                     
SHORT TERM...CAS                                                                
LONG TERM...LFR                                                                 
AVIATION...LFR/CAS                                                              
MARINE...LFR/CAS                                                                
</pre> md                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1025 PM EST TUE FEB 12 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE HEADING ENE               
THRU LWR MI WHILE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS DROPPING SE THRU MANITOBA INTO              
NRN ONTARIO. PATCHY -SN/FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH LWR MI SHORTWAVE               
SHOULD EXIT THE ERN FCST AREA IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS. ATTENTION              
THEN TURNS TO THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NRN ONTARIO THRU FAR NW             
MN...ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE. KDLH RADAR AND SFC OBS                 
INDICATED -SN/FLURRIES AHEAD OF FRONT IN NRN MN. THE -SN IS                     
OCCURRING IN A NARROW RIBBON WEAK DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONVERGENCE AND            
MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT (280K THETA SFC) PER 00Z RUC. AS FORCING AND            
ISENTROPIC ASCENT SPREAD E OVERNIGHT...850MB TEMPS AROUND -14C WILL             
BE PLENTY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LAKE ENHANCEMENT AS THE COLD FRONT             
CROSSES WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. PER 00Z RUC/NAM...FRONT SHOULD REACH THE             
KEWEENAW IN THE 10-12Z TIME FRAME. EXPECT A BRIEF BURST OF MDT/HVY              
SNOW WITH FROPA. CERTAINLY COULD SEE A QUICK 1-3 INCHES OF                      
ACCUMULATION...ESPECIALLY WITH FAVORABLE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH TEMPS            
IN THE LAYER OF ASCENT. CONSIDERED AN ADVY AS LATE NIGHT THRU WED               
MORNING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON THE KEWEENAW MAY APPROACH ADVY LEVELS.            
HOWEVER...SINCE INVERSION WILL BE CRASHING QUICKLY TO 3.5-4KFT                  
BEHIND FRONT...WILL HOLD OFF AN ADVY FOR NOW. TO THE E...INCREASED              
POPS TO LIKELY FOR ALGER/LUCE WED AFTN UNDER NW FLOW BEHIND COLD                
FRONT.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 416 PM EST)...                                      
SYNOPSIS...                                                                     
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM              
CA INTO THE NRN ROCKIES/ALBERTA AND A TROUGH FROM CNTRL CANADA INTO             
THE MS VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE FROM SW WI INTO ERN IA SUPPORTED AN AREA             
OF LIGHT SNOW FROM ERN WI INTO SRN UPPER MI. AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE              
WAS MOVING SE THROUGH SRN MANITOBA. 700-500 QVECTOR CONV AND 280K               
ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ALSO HAS PRODUCED SOME             
LIGHT SNOW WITH VSBY INTO THE 1-3SM RANGE AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT.              
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WED)...                                                 
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE LIGHT SNOW CHANCES SE THIS EVENING AND LES               
INTO NW UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT INTO WED.                                         
EXPECT LIGHT SNOW WITH THE WI SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH THE SE PORTION OF            
THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. RADAR AND UPSTREAM OB            
TRENDS SUGGEST THAT ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL...LESS THAN             
A HALF INCH. WINDS SHOULD BACK ENOUGH TO THE NE TO REDUCE                       
CHANCES FOR LES OR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OFF OF LAKE MI.                           
LATE TONIGHT THE SHORTWAVE AND SFC FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WRN LAKE                
SUPERIOR WITH WINDS VEERING FROM SW TO WNW AROUND 12Z. 850 MB TEMPS             
TO AROUND -15C BY 12Z SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING LES POTENTIAL INTO              
NW UPPER MI. SNOW GROWTH PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE BTWN 09Z-15Z WITH             
THE 2K-8K FT LAYER IN THE -12C TO -17C RANGE. HOWEVER...THE PERIOD              
OF BEST LOW LEVEL CONV IS RELATIVELY BRIEF AND THE DEEPER MOISTURE              
MOVES OUT BEFORE THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. VERY DRY AIR MOVING IN BY              
MIDDAY ALONG WITH A SHORTER FETCH AS WINDS VEER NW AND INVERSION                
HEIGHTS FALLING TO AROUND 4K FT...SHOULD DECREASE SNOWFALL                      
RATES/COVERAGE WITH MAINLY SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES BY AFTERNOON. WRLY                
WINDS JUST BRUSHING THE SHORELINE E OF MUNISING WILL VEER NW IN THE             
AFTERNOON. AGAIN...BY THAT TIMES...SIGNIFICANT DRY ADVECTION AND                
LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL LIMIT LES POTENTIAL WITH ONLY LIGHT             
ACCUMULATIONS.                                                                  
LONG TERM (WED NIGHT THRU TUE)...                                               
AS POINTED OUT BY HPC...ECMWF IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION THROUGH THE             
EXTENDED. THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL MOVE OVER                
NORTHERN ONTARIO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE WRAPPING AROUND            
THIS LOW SWEEPS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED              
WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE                    
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT STRETCHING                
FROM SOUTHEAST ONTARIO THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO THE LOW               
OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE             
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW. THE STRONGEST ISENTROPIC              
ASCENT WILL STILL BE OVER WISCONSIN.                                            
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHEAST HUDSON BAY DIRECTING A               
SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE U.P. ON THURSDAY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE               
INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE OVER THE FORECAST IN             
THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW. GUIDANCE SHOWING THE DEEPEST                    
MOISTURE WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. DELTA-T`S WILL              
AROUND -23C. PLAN TO GO WITH A WATCH FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN                   
COUNTIES AS THIS WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE DEEPEST MOISTURE FIELD AND              
THE AREA OF STRONGEST 850-500MB Q-VECTORS CONVERGENCE DURING THE                
DAY.                                                                            
AFTER THE SURFACE LOW SETTLE INTO LOWER MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY...THE              
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SWEEP INTO             
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING FOR             
LES TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN U.P. AND EAST OF MUNISING AGAIN                 
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL SHIFT INTO WEST                   
CENTRAL QUEBEC AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE RACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.               
THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BACK WEST ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE DESCENDS ON             
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE DELTA-T`S WILL BE AROUND 20C. WINDS WILL             
CONTINUE TO BACK TO THE WEST. THUS THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL END AS            
THE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH.                                                        
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE INTO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE              
SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE LOWER GREAT               
LAKES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EARLY AND BECOME OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST                
LATE. THE WATER-850MB DELTA-T`S WILL BE AROUND 20C OVER EASTERN LAKE            
SUPERIOR TO AROUND 14C OVER THE WEST. STILL BOTH COOL ENOUGH TO                 
GENERATE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW. HOWEVER...WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND              
WINDS BACKING SOUTHWEST...THE LES WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE U.P.                    
MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND             
SWEEP INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN ONTARIO ON SATURDAY. WEAK             
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE            
DRAWN INTO THE AREA WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL GENERATE SOME SNOWS            
OVER THE AREA. SINCE THE WEST END OF THE FORECAST AREA IS STILL FAR             
ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE FRONT THE CHANCES WILL STILL BE SLIGHT.                    
THE LOW AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE U.P.                    
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO EASTERN ONTARIO ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A                
TROUGH DEEPENING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE OVER WESTERN               
ONTARIO AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT AND               
THROUGH THE U.P. ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST FOLLOWING THE            
FROPA. THE CHANCE OF SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.                 
COLD AIR WILL STREAM INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A LOW               
LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN ONTARIO AND THE 850MB               
TEMPERATURES DROP TO AROUND -20C OVER THE WESTERN LAKE. THIS SHOULD             
GENERATE LES...MAINLY OVER AREAS PRONE TO LES WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW.            
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION               
THROUGH TUESDAY...CONTINUING TO PULL COLD AIR INTO THE FORECAST                 
AREA. A COLD POOL OF LOW LEVEL AIR WILL BE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WITH            
THE THERMAL TROUGH EXTENDING INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. 850MB                  
TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER TO -24C OVER THE WESTERN LAKE. LES WILL                 
CONTINUE. HOWEVER...THE VERY COLD AIR WILL BE PARTICULARLY DRY SO DO            
NOT EXPECT HEAVY SNOWFALL. AT THIS TIME THE MODELS ARE NOT CALLING              
FOR STRONG WINDS.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT KCMX THRU THE EVENING. AS LOW-LEVEL            
WINDS BEGIN TO TAKE ON AN OVERWATER COMPONENT FROM THE W LATER IN               
THE NIGHT...MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP. COLD FRONT WILL PASS LATE                 
TONIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING...BRINGING LAKE EFFECT -SHSN AND MVFR VIS             
INITIALLY. AROUND THE TIME OF FROPA...EXPECT A PERIOD OF HEAVIER                
SNOW REDUCING VIS TO LIFR. IFR VIS IN -SHSN MAY THEN CONTINUE WELL              
INTO THE AFTN BEFORE IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR LATE AS WINDS VEER MORE                
NRLY (A LESS FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR LAKE EFFECT -SHSN THERE).                  
AT KSAW...OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE UNTIL WED AFTN.              
A FEW OBS TO THE W INDICATED SOME MVFR CIGS AT TIMES EARLIER...BUT              
DIFFICULT TO SEE THOSE CLOUDS ON SATELLITE DUE TO PRESENCE OF HIGHER            
LEVEL CLOUDS. SINCE THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY OBS RECENTLY THAT HAVE              
INDICATED MVFR...WILL NOT INCLUDE A MENTION OF MVFR THRU THE NIGHT              
AT KSAW WITH THIS FCST ISSUANCE. FROPA LATE WED MORNING SHOULD BRING            
MVFR CIGS AND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES.                                             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
LOW PRES MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO TO JAMES BAY WILL DRAG A COLD               
FRONT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT AND WED MORNING. SW WINDS               
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 KT RANGE OVER THE W BY                  
MIDNIGHT AND VEER NW AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE WINDS WILL                 
DIMINISH LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE                
REGION. LOW PRES MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THU WILL                
BRING AN INCREASE IN N WINDS TO 15 TO 25 KT. OTHERWISE...WINDS                  
SHOULD REMAIN BLO 30 KT UNTIL A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES              
EASTWARD THROUGH NRN ONTARIO OR LAKE SUPERIOR LATE SATURDAY INTO                
SUNDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
 WINTER STORM WATCH LATE WED NIGHT THRU THU EVENING MIZ010>013.                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...ROLFSON                                                                
SHORT TERM...JLB                                                                
LONG TERM...DLG                                                                 
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...JLB                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
627 PM EST TUE FEB 12 2008                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS                                        
.SYNOPSIS (ISSUED AT 416 PM EST)...                                             
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM              
CA INTO THE NRN ROCKIES/ALBERTA AND A TROUGH FROM CNTRL CANADA INTO             
THE MS VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE FROM SW WI INTO ERN IA SUPPORTED AN AREA             
OF LIGHT SNOW FROM ERN WI INTO SRN UPPER MI. AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE              
WAS MOVING SE THROUGH SRN MANITOBA. 700-500 QVECTOR CONV AND 280K               
ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ALSO HAS PRODUCED SOME             
LIGHT SNOW WITH VSBY INTO THE 1-3SM RANGE AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT.              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WED ISSUED AT 416 PM EST)...                           
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE LIGHT SNOW CHANCES SE THIS EVENING AND LES               
INTO NW UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT INTO WED.                                         
EXPECT LIGHT SNOW WITH THE WI SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH THE SE PORTION OF            
THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. RADAR AND UPSTREAM OB            
TRENDS SUGGEST THAT ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL...LESS THAN             
A HALF INCH. WINDS SHOULD BACK ENOUGH TO THE NE TO REDUCE                       
CHANCES FOR LES OR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OFF OF LAKE MI.                           
LATE TONIGHT THE SHORTWAVE AND SFC FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WRN LAKE                
SUPERIOR WITH WINDS VEERING FROM SW TO WNW AROUND 12Z. 850 MB TEMPS             
TO AROUND -15C BY 12Z SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING LES POTENTIAL INTO              
NW UPPER MI. SNOW GROWTH PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE BTWN 09Z-15Z WITH             
THE 2K-8K FT LAYER IN THE -12C TO -17C RANGE. HOWEVER...THE PERIOD              
OF BEST LOW LEVEL CONV IS RELATIVELY BRIEF AND THE DEEPER MOISTURE              
MOVES OUT BEFORE THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. VERY DRY AIR MOVING IN BY              
MIDDAY ALONG WITH A SHORTER FETCH AS WINDS VEER NW AND INVERSION                
HEIGHTS FALLING TO AROUND 4K FT...SHOULD DECREASE SNOWFALL                      
RATES/COVERAGE WITH MAINLY SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES BY AFTERNOON. WRLY                
WINDS JUST BRUSHING THE SHORELINE E OF MUNISING WILL VEER NW IN THE             
AFTERNOON. AGAIN...BY THAT TIMES...SIGNIFICANT DRY ADVECTION AND                
LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL LIMIT LES POTENTIAL WITH ONLY LIGHT             
ACCUMULATIONS.                                                                  
.LONG TERM (WED NIGHT THRU TUE)...                                              
AS POINTED OUT BY HPC...ECMWF IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION THROUGH THE             
EXTENDED. THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL MOVE OVER                
NORTHERN ONTARIO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE WRAPPING AROUND            
THIS LOW SWEEPS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED              
WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE                    
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT STRETCHING                
FROM SOUTHEAST ONTARIO THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO THE LOW               
OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE             
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW. THE STRONGEST ISENTROPIC              
ASCENT WILL STILL BE OVER WISCONSIN.                                            
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHEAST HUDSON BAY DIRECTING A               
SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE U.P. ON THURSDAY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE               
INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE OVER THE FORECAST IN             
THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW. GUIDANCE SHOWING THE DEEPEST                    
MOISTURE WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. DELTA-T`S WILL              
AROUND -23C. PLAN TO GO WITH A WATCH FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN                   
COUNTIES AS THIS WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE DEEPEST MOISTURE FIELD AND              
THE AREA OF STRONGEST 850-500MB Q-VECTORS CONVERGENCE DURING THE                
DAY.                                                                            
AFTER THE SURFACE LOW SETTLE INTO LOWER MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY...THE              
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SWEEP INTO             
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING FOR             
LES TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN U.P. AND EAST OF MUNISING AGAIN                 
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL SHIFT INTO WEST                   
CENTRAL QUEBEC AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE RACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.               
THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BACK WEST ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE DESCENDS ON             
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE DELTA-T`S WILL BE AROUND 20C. WINDS WILL             
CONTINUE TO BACK TO THE WEST. THUS THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL END AS            
THE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH.                                                        
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE INTO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE              
SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE LOWER GREAT               
LAKES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EARLY AND BECOME OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST                
LATE. THE WATER-850MB DELTA-T`S WILL BE AROUND 20C OVER EASTERN LAKE            
SUPERIOR TO AROUND 14C OVER THE WEST. STILL BOTH COOL ENOUGH TO                 
GENERATE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW. HOWEVER...WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND              
WINDS BACKING SOUTHWEST...THE LES WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE U.P.                    
MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND             
SWEEP INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN ONTARIO ON SATURDAY. WEAK             
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE            
DRAWN INTO THE AREA WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL GENERATE SOME SNOWS            
OVER THE AREA. SINCE THE WEST END OF THE FORECAST AREA IS STILL FAR             
ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE FRONT THE CHANCES WILL STILL BE SLIGHT.                    
THE LOW AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE U.P.                    
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO EASTERN ONTARIO ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A                
TROUGH DEEPENING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE OVER WESTERN               
ONTARIO AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT AND               
THROUGH THE U.P. ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST FOLLOWING THE            
FROPA. THE CHANCE OF SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.                 
COLD AIR WILL STREAM INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A LOW               
LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN ONTARIO AND THE 850MB               
TEMPERATURES DROP TO AROUND -20C OVER THE WESTERN LAKE. THIS SHOULD             
GENERATE LES...MAINLY OVER AREAS PRONE TO LES WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW.            
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION               
THROUGH TUESDAY...CONTINUING TO PULL COLD AIR INTO THE FORECAST                 
AREA. A COLD POOL OF LOW LEVEL AIR WILL BE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WITH            
THE THERMAL TROUGH EXTENDING INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. 850MB                  
TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER TO -24C OVER THE WESTERN LAKE. LES WILL                 
CONTINUE. HOWEVER...THE VERY COLD AIR WILL BE PARTICULARLY DRY SO DO            
NOT EXPECT HEAVY SNOWFALL. AT THIS TIME THE MODELS ARE NOT CALLING              
FOR STRONG WINDS.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT KCMX THRU THE EVENING. AS LOW-LEVEL            
WINDS BEGIN TO TAKE ON AN OVERWATER COMPONENT FROM THE W LATER IN               
THE NIGHT...MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP. COLD FRONT WILL PASS LATE                 
TONIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING...BRINGING LAKE EFFECT -SHSN AND MVFR VIS             
INITIALLY. AROUND THE TIME OF FROPA...EXPECT A PERIOD OF HEAVIER                
SNOW REDUCING VIS TO LIFR. IFR VIS IN -SHSN MAY THEN CONTINUE WELL              
INTO THE AFTN BEFORE IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR LATE AS WINDS VEER MORE                
NRLY (A LESS FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR LAKE EFFECT -SHSN THERE).                  
AT KSAW...OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE UNTIL WED AFTN.              
A FEW OBS TO THE W INDICATED SOME MVFR CIGS AT TIMES EARLIER...BUT              
DIFFICULT TO SEE THOSE CLOUDS ON SATELLITE DUE TO PRESENCE OF HIGHER            
LEVEL CLOUDS. SINCE THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY OBS RECENTLY THAT HAVE              
INDICATED MVFR...WILL NOT INCLUDE A MENTION OF MVFR THRU THE NIGHT              
AT KSAW WITH THIS FCST ISSUANCE. FROPA LATE WED MORNING SHOULD BRING            
MVFR CIGS AND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES.                                             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
LOW PRES MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO TO JAMES BAY WILL DRAG A COLD               
FRONT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT AND WED MORNING. SW WINDS               
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 KT RANGE OVER THE W BY                  
MIDNIGHT AND VEER NW AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE WINDS WILL                 
DIMINISH LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE                
REGION. LOW PRES MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THU WILL                
BRING AN INCREASE IN N WINDS TO 15 TO 25 KT. OTHERWISE...WINDS                  
SHOULD REMAIN BLO 30 KT UNTIL A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES              
EASTWARD THROUGH NRN ONTARIO OR LAKE SUPERIOR LATE SATURDAY INTO                
SUNDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JLB                                                                
LONG TERM...DLG                                                                 
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...JLB                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
416 PM EST TUE FEB 12 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM              
CA INTO THE NRN ROCKIES/ALBERTA AND A TROUGH FROM CNTRL CANADA INTO             
THE MS VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE FROM SW WI INTO ERN IA SUPPORTED AN AREA             
OF LIGHT SNOW FROM ERN WI INTO SRN UPPER MI. AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE              
WAS MOVING SE THROUGH SRN MANITOBA. 700-500 QVECTOR CONV AND 280K               
ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ALSO HAS PRODUCED SOME             
LIGHT SNOW WITH VSBY INTO THE 1-3SM RANGE AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT.              
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)                                           
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE LIGHT SNOW CHANCES SE THIS EVENING AND LES               
INTO NW UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT INTO WED.                                         
EXPECT LIGHT SNOW WITH THE WI SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH THE SE PORTION OF            
THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. RADAR AND UPSTREAM OB            
TRENDS SUGGEST THAT ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL...LESS THAN             
A HALF INCH. WINDS SHOULD BACK ENOUGH TO THE NE TO REDUCE                       
CHANCES FOR LES OR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OFF OF LAKE MI.                           
LATE TONIGHT THE SHORTWAVE AND SFC FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WRN LAKE                
SUPERIOR WITH WINDS VEERING FROM SW TO WNW AROUND 12Z. 850 MB TEMPS             
TO AROUND -15C BY 12Z SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING LES POTENTIAL INTO              
NW UPPER MI. SNOW GROWTH PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE BTWN 09Z-15Z WITH             
THE 2K-8K FT LAYER IN THE -12C TO -17C RANGE. HOWEVER...THE PERIOD              
OF BEST LOW LEVEL CONV IS RELATIVELY BRIEF AND THE DEEPER MOISTURE              
MOVES OUT BEFORE THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. VERY DRY AIR MOVING IN BY              
MIDDAY ALONG WITH A SHORTER FETCH AS WINDS VEER NW AND INVERSION                
HEIGHTS FALLING TO AROUND 4K FT...SHOULD DECREASE SNOWFALL                      
RATES/COVERAGE WITH MAINLY SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES BY AFTERNOON. WRLY                
WINDS JUST BRUSHING THE SHORELINE E OF MUNISING WILL VEER NW IN THE             
AFTERNOON. AGAIN...BY THAT TIMES...SIGNIFICANT DRY ADVECTION AND                
LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL LIMIT LES POTENTIAL WITH ONLY LIGHT             
ACCUMULATIONS.                                                                  
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
AS POINTED OUT BY HPC...ECMWF IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION THROUGH THE             
EXTENDED. THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL MOVE OVER                
NORTHERN ONTARIO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE WRAPPING AROUND            
THIS LOW SWEEPS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED              
WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE                    
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT STRETCHING                
FROM SOUTHEAST ONTARIO THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO THE LOW               
OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE             
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW. THE STRONGEST ISENTROPIC              
ASCENT WILL STILL BE OVER WISCONSIN.                                            
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHEAST HUDSON BAY DIRECTING A               
SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE U.P. ON THURSDAY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE               
INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE OVER THE FORECAST IN             
THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW. GUIDANCE SHOWING THE DEEPEST                    
MOISTURE WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. DELTA-T`S WILL              
AROUND -23C. PLAN TO GO WITH A WATCH FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN                   
COUNTIES AS THIS WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE DEEPEST MOISTURE FIELD AND              
THE AREA OF STRONGEST 850-500MB Q-VECTORS CONVERGENCE DURING THE                
DAY.                                                                            
AFTER THE SURFACE LOW SETTLE INTO LOWER MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY...THE              
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SWEEP INTO             
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING FOR             
LES TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN U.P. AND EAST OF MUNISING AGAIN                 
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL SHIFT INTO WEST                   
CENTRAL QUEBEC AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE RACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.               
THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BACK WEST ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE DESCENDS ON             
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE DELTA-T`S WILL BE AROUND 20C. WINDS WILL             
CONTINUE TO BACK TO THE WEST. THUS THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL END AS            
THE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH.                                                        
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE INTO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE              
SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE LOWER GREAT               
LAKES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EARLY AND BECOME OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST                
LATE. THE WATER-850MB DELTA-T`S WILL BE AROUND 20C OVER EASTERN LAKE            
SUPERIOR TO AROUND 14C OVER THE WEST. STILL BOTH COOL ENOUGH TO                 
GENERATE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW. HOWEVER...WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND              
WINDS BACKING SOUTHWEST...THE LES WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE U.P.                    
MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND             
SWEEP INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN ONTARIO ON SATURDAY. WEAK             
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE            
DRAWN INTO THE AREA WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL GENERATE SOME SNOWS            
OVER THE AREA. SINCE THE WEST END OF THE FORECAST AREA IS STILL FAR             
ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE FRONT THE CHANCES WILL STILL BE SLIGHT.                    
THE LOW AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE U.P.                    
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO EASTERN ONTARIO ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A                
TROUGH DEEPENING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE OVER WESTERN               
ONTARIO AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT AND               
THROUGH THE U.P. ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST FOLLOWING THE            
FROPA. THE CHANCE OF SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.                 
COLD AIR WILL STREAM INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A LOW               
LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN ONTARIO AND THE 850MB               
TEMPERATURES DROP TO AROUND -20C OVER THE WESTERN LAKE. THIS SHOULD             
GENERATE LES...MAINLY OVER AREAS PRONE TO LES WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW.            
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION               
THROUGH TUESDAY...CONTINUING TO PULL COLD AIR INTO THE FORECAST                 
AREA. A COLD POOL OF LOW LEVEL AIR WILL BE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WITH            
THE THERMAL TROUGH EXTENDING INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. 850MB                  
TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER TO -24C OVER THE WESTERN LAKE. LES WILL                 
CONTINUE. HOWEVER...THE VERY COLD AIR WILL BE PARTICULARLY DRY SO DO            
NOT EXPECT HEAVY SNOWFALL. AT THIS TIME THE MODELS ARE NOT CALLING              
FOR STRONG WINDS.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT KCMX THIS AFTERNOON AS LOWER CIGS              
FROM THE SOUTH GET ADVECTED IN. THERE ARE MVFR CIGS IN WI AND WITH              
SW WINDS...THOSE SHOULD MAKE IT INTO KCMX WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN                
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT KSAW...MVFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU MOST OF             
THIS FCST PERIOD UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN SW WINDS CREATE SOME                   
DOWNSLOPE WHICH SHOULD HELP TO BREAK UP THE MVFR CIGS AND CONDITIONS            
WILL THEN GO VFR.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
LOW PRES MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO TO JAMES BAY WILL DRAG A COLD               
FRONT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT AND WED MORNING. SW WINDS               
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 KT RANGE OVER THE W BY                  
MIDNIGHT AND VEER NW AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE WINDS WILL                 
DIMINISH LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE                
REGION. LOW PRES MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THU WILL                
BRING AN INCREASE IN N WINDS TO 15 TO 25 KT. OTHERWISE...WINDS                  
SHOULD REMAIN BLO 30 KT UNTIL A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES              
EASTWARD THROUGH NRN ONTARIO OR LAKE SUPERIOR LATE SATURDAY INTO                
SUNDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JLB                                                                
LONG TERM...DLG                                                                 
AVIATION/MARINE...JLB                                                           
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1230 AM EST TUE FEB 12 2008                                                     
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS.                                       
.UPDATE (ISSUED AT 1024 PM EST)...                                              
MAIN FCST ISSUE OVERNIGHT IS TEMPS.                                             
AT 02Z...A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS EXISTS ACROSS THE FCST AREA...RANGING            
FROM NEAR -10F WHERE SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR (MAINLY INTERIOR SRN                
UPPER MI) TO AROUND 10 ABOVE WHERE SKIES ARE CLOUDY. FLURRIES/-SHSN             
AFFECTING PARTS OF THE NW FCST AREA AND ERN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA              
WILL END OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...AND LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL CLEAR              
OUT. SO...TEMPS WILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO NOSE DIVE LATER IN THE              
NIGHT. HOWEVER...MID CLOUDS ARE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS NRN MN.                
THESE MAY SPREAD INTO PARTS OF THE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT...THOUGH 00Z             
RUC IS SLOW TO SPREAD THE CLOUDS E. ANOTHER CLOUD ISSUE IS LAKE                 
EFFECT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. WHILE SFC WINDS WILL NOT BECOME SE...AT               
950MB AND ABOVE...WIND DOES BECOME SERLY DURING THE NIGHT. THIS                 
SHOULD RESULT IN CLOUDS DEVELOPING INTO CNTRL UPPER MI. SO...CLOUD              
FCST IS NOT A SIMPLE MATTER WHICH MAKES TEMP FCST EXTREMELY                     
DIFFICULT. HAVE LOWERED MINS TO -15 TO -20F ALONG THE WI BORDER FROM            
E OF KIWD TOWARD KIMT GIVEN CURRENT TEMPS AND POTENTIAL FOR THAT                
AREA TO SEE LEAST CLOUD COVER FOR LONGEST DURATION DURING THE NIGHT.            
ALSO LOWERED TEMPS SUBSTANTIALLY FROM MENOMINEE COUNTY TO SRN                   
SCHOOLCRAFT. BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE LATER IN THE NIGHT...THERE                  
SHOULD BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR TEMPS TO CRASH. LOWERED TEMPS TOWARD               
-10F IN THOSE AREAS.                                                            
AS FOR PCPN...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING E ACROSS THE             
CNTRL PLAINS WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE S THRU THE NIGHT. IN                       
ADDITION...EVENING SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR TO               
OVERCOME. HAVE THUS TRIMMED POPS OVER THE SRN FCST AREA OVERNIGHT.              
ONLY RETAINED LOW POPS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE SOME LAKE EFFECT                
FLURRIES/-SHSN MAY DEVELOP LATE...MAINLY S OF KESC.                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 400 PM EST)...                                      
SHORT TERM (TNGT AND TUE)...                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO            
EMBEDDED IN A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA. A RIDGE IS OVER              
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST CANADA. A SHORTWAVE IS DIGGING              
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS IT SLIDES DOWN THE LEE OF THE WEST COAST            
RIDGE. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LARGE HIGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT               
LAKES REGION...WHILE A LOW IS DEEPENING OVER TEXAS. A WARM FRONT IS             
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. MOST OF THE U.P. STATIONS             
ARE REPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. THE                 
EXCEPTIONS ARE AREAS ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE WHERE                        
TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE TEENS.                                              
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH                    
TUESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES                 
DELTA-T`S CONTINUE TO BE COOL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS               
OVER AREA PRONE TO LES WITH A NORTH FLOW. THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE                
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DEEPEN INTO A TROUGH OVER THE UPPER                        
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT AND SHIFT INTO THE UPPER MICHIGAN              
ON TUESDAY. GFS SHOWING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN             
SURFACE DEW POINT OVER THE AREA AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT OF THE                
CENTRAL PLAINS PUSH TOWARDS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. 850MB                        
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN AROUND -16C STILL COOL ENOUGH OVER               
THE LAKES TO PRODUCE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE SOUTHERN U.P.               
WHERE THERE WILL BE A SOUTHERLY FLOW.                                           
LONG TERM (TUE NGT THRU MON)...                                                 
ON TUE NGT/WED...MOST MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND WEAKER WITH                
SHRTWV FCST TO SWING THRU ONTARIO AND ASSOCIATED COLD FROPA INTO THE            
UPR GRT LKS LATE TUE NGT AND WED DESPITE UPR PATTERN FEATURING HI               
AMPLITUDE RDG OVER WRN CAN THAT WOULD SUPPORT A MORE STRONGLY                   
DIGGING SYS. GIVEN FVRBL UPR PATTERN...WL BLEND THE GFS WITH THE                
STRONGER 12Z UKMET FOR THIS SYS. THAT SCENARIO SUGS ASSOCIATED COLD             
FNT WL APRCH THE WRN ZNS AFT MIDNGT TUE NGT...SO MAINTAINED GOING               
CHC POPS IN THAT AREA WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WL TEND TO OFFSET DRYNESS.             
THEN SOME LGT LES NEAR LK SUP ON WED WITH COLD AIR INTRUSION BEHIND             
COLD FROPA (H85 TEMPS FCST ON WED RANGES FM -20C TO -24C PER THE                
UKMET TO -16C TO -20C ON THE GFS). RELATIVELY SHALLOW...DRY NATURE              
OF COLD AIR INTRUSION AND GENERAL ACYC FLOW IN THE WAKE OF COLD FNT             
SHOULD LIMIT LES AMTS.                                                          
EXACT FCST FOR WED NGT AND THU DEPENDS ON COMPLEX INTERACTION BTWN              
POLAR AND ARCTIC BRANCH DISTURBANCES OVER THE UPR MS VALLEY AND                 
ASSOCIATED SFC LO DVLPMNT/FGEN ON ITS NRN FLANK. PER NCEP                       
GUIDANCE...TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS HANDLING OF THIS INTERACTION BTWN             
ARCTIC AIR SURGING S FM CAN AND LO PRES DVLPG IN ADVANCE OF POLAR               
BRANCH SHRTWV. OPTED TO BUMP POPS UP TO HI LIKELY OVER THE SRN TIER             
LATE WED NGT/THU CLOSER TO LO PRES TRACK TO THE S. SHARP H85-7 FGEN             
AND UPR DVGC IN THE RRQ OF H3 JET MAX JUST S OF JAMES BAY JUSTIFIES             
POPS TOWARD THE HI END OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. ELY FLOW OVER NRN LK MI            
WITH H85 TEMPS ARND -12C WL SUPPORT SOME LK ENHANCEMENT OVER THE                
SCNTRL WITH HIER QPF THERE. WITH SHARP FGEN TENDING TO ENHANCE LLVL             
CAD...TENDED TOWARD THE LOWER END OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.                    
TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO THE DEPARTURE SPEED OF SFC LO ON THU NGT               
AND TREND TOWARD TRANSITION TO PURE LES. SINCE 12Z GFS HAS TRENDED              
TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF WITH FASTER EXIT OF THE LO...TENDED TO FOLLOW              
THAT TREND WITH FASTER END OF PCPN OVER THE S/TRANSITION TO LES NEAR            
LK SUP. THEN PERSISTENT LES ON FRI NEAR LK SUP WITH INFLUX OF VERY              
COLD AIR (GFS SHOWS H85 TEMPS SINKING TO ARND -25C). APRCH OF SHRTWV            
RDGING/SFC HI ON FRI NGT/SAT WL DIMINISH THESE SHSN. HEDGED TOWARD              
THE LOWER END OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR SAT MRNG LO TEMPS WITH ARRIVAL OF             
RDG AXIS/LIGHTER WINDS. NEXT CLIPPER LO DUE TO APRCH LATE SAT AND               
BRING CHC POPS...HIEST TO THE N...AS CLIPPER TRACKS ACRS LK                     
SUP/ONTARIO ON SUN. TEMPS WL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL WITH FAIRLY STRG            
SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYS...BUT ARRIVAL OF REINFORCING                     
SHRTWV/COLD FNT ON LATE SUN/MON WL TREND TEMPS DOWN AGAIN AND                   
RESTART LES.                                                                    
COORDINATED WITH NCEP/APX/LOT/GRB/DLH.                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT KCMX THRU THIS FCST PERIOD SINCE               
LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL NOT HAVE AN OVER WATER COMPONENT. AT KSAW...               
MVFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS              
INITIALLY OFF LAKE SUPERIOR MAY SCATTER OUT FOR A TIME AT KSAW                  
DURING THE NIGHT BEFORE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN FORM IN            
DEVELOPING SERLY FLOW. MAY SEE SOME FLURRIES LATE MORNING THRU THE              
AFTN AS WELL.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
WILL LIKELY HAVE A LAND BREEZE TO CONTEND WITH TONIGHT WITH THE HIGH            
OVERHEAD AND COLD TEMPS ACROSS INLAND AREAS. THE HIGH QUICKLY SHIFTS            
EAST OF THE LAKES ON TUESDAY...GIVING WAY TO A COLD FRONT                       
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS TAKES THE FRONT.               
WILL KEEP WINDS 15-25 KT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT IT COULD                
APPROACH 30 KT WED AFTN. ANOTHER LOW MOVES ALONG THE FRONT AND INTO             
THE UPPER LAKES BY THU MORNING. NUMEROUS MODEL DIFFERENCES...AND                
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK 30KT WIND IS POSSIBLE THU. HEAVY                   
FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY OVER AT PORTIONS OF THE LK ON WED NGT THRU             
SAT AS COLD AIR RETAINS ITS LOCK ON THE UPR GRT LKS.                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                                
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...ROLFSON                                                                
SHORT TERM...DLG                                                                
LONG TERM...KC                                                                  
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...DLG                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1152 PM EST MON FEB 11 2008                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
AN EXTREMELY DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS IN VFR                  
THROUGH AT LEAST AT LEAST 12Z...BEFORE DEEPER SATURATION BEGINS TO              
OCCUR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING. LATEST UPSTREAM             
OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SLOWER                    
TIMING FOR THE ONSET OF MFVR LIGHT SNOW...WITH THESE CONDITIONS                 
PROJECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 14Z AT DTW/DET AND NOT UNTIL CLOSER TO               
18Z AT MBS. A PERIOD OF HIGHER INTENSITY SNOWFALL STILL LOOKS ON                
TRACK THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...WITH CONDITIONS FLUCTUATING                 
BETWEEN IFR/LIFR DURING THIS TIME. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL                   
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OUT OF THE EAST ON TUESDAY.                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1037 PM EST MON FEB 11 2008                           
UPDATE...                                                                       
LATEST RADAR...ALONG WITH SUPPORTIVE 00Z RUC/NAM GUIDANCE...INDICATING          
THE NARROW BAND OF LGT/MDT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF MID-                 
LEVEL FGEN FORCING WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE MICHIGAN BORDER                
AS IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. BESIDES THIS FEATURE...OVERALL             
FORCING LOOKS MEAGER PRIOR TO 12Z...GIVEN LIMITED ISENTROPIC                    
LIFT/LARGE SCALE ACCENT. THUS...WILL TRIM POPS BACK FOR                         
TONIGHT...HOLDING ON TO JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR RIGHT AROUND                      
DAYBREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO TIER OF COUNTIES. ACCUMULATIONS                
LOOK TO BE LITTLE IF ANY FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. IN FACT...00Z NAM             
JUST ROLLING IN SUGGESTS THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL                
TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING.                                                     
REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GOOD                    
RADIATIONAL COOLING...GIVEN A WEAK GRADIENT AND LACK OF CLOUD                   
COVER (ESPECIALLY NORTHERN HALF). SEEING A WIDE RANGE IN                        
TEMPERATURES AT THE MOMENT...WITH TEMPERATURES IN OAKLAND COUNTY                
ALONE RANGING FROM -3F IN WHITE LAKE TO 12F IN TROY. GIVEN THE                  
DRYNESS OF THIS AIRMASS (DEWPOINTS 0 TO -5F) THE POTENTIAL EXISTS               
FOR QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS TO BOTTOM OUT BELOW 0F. THUS...ADJUST                 
LOWS DOWN SLIGHTLY SLIGHTLY...ESPECIALLY FROM M-59 NORTHWARD.                   
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 401 PM EST MON FEB 11 2008                             
SHORT TERM... THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT                                        
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BETWEEN AN EAST TO WEST ORIENTATED SURFACE                
TROUGH OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...AND STRONG SURFACE HIGH                   
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...HAS BROUGHT SOME                       
CLOUDINESS/FLURRIES INTO THE EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE                   
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION SEEN            
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLIER TODAY...THESE CLOUDS SHOULD MAKE LITTLE            
ADDITIONAL PROGRESSION INTO THE TRI-CITIES AND THUMB THE REST OF THE            
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LATE                     
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THE EAST/WEST TROUGH IS FORCED TO                   
RETREAT BACK NORTHWARD. MAY SEE SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS             
OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MIDLAND...BAY...AND HURON                     
COUNTIES...AS WELL AS SAGINAW BAY...INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE               
ACTIVITY AND LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE PUSHED BACK NORTH.                            
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER TO THE               
REST OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND FIRST HALF OF THE                
NIGHT.                                                                          
DIFFUSE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL               
CONSOLIDATE AND AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS                     
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE REFLECTION WILL TRACK FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS               
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY DAYBREAK...ALLOWING THE NORTHERN FRINGE            
OF THE 925-850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE TO LIFT INTO FAR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN             
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME               
FAIRLY LIGHT ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE            
FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH            
THE ARRIVAL OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND QPF...AND WILL TWEAK FORECAST            
ACCORDINGLY. LIKELY POPS WERE KEPT FROM DETROIT SOUTHWARD...WITH UP             
TO ABOUT A HALF INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. ELSEWHERE...JUST CHANCE              
POPS WITH A DUSTING OF SNOW EXPECTED AT BEST THROUGH 700 AM.                    
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THIS NEXT WINTER STORM.            
THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST                  
AREAS. WIND CHILLS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT UNDER             
THE SURFACE HIGH. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST AT THE LOWER END OF MOS             
GUIDANCE IN THE SOUTH...AND A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE FROM I-69              
NORTHWARD AS MOS NUMBERS THERE HAVE BEEN TOO WARM RECENTLY.                     
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY                                         
SNOW WILL BE UNDERWAY NEAR THE OHIO BORDER AT SUNRISE TUESDAY, WILL             
SPREAD NORTHWARD DURING THE MORNING HOURS, AND REACH THE TRI CITIES             
AND NORTHERN THUMB BY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL THEN DIMINISH IN A               
SIMILAR FASHION, FROM SOUTH TO NORTH, DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON IN              
THE SOUTH AND DURING TUESDAY EVENING IN THE NORTH WITH SOME LAKE                
EFFECT LINGERING IN THE THUMB. TOTAL ACCUMULATION COULD EXCEED                  
ADVISORY THRESHOLD OF 4 INCHES IN 18 TO 24 HOURS, BUT WE WILL HOLD              
OFF ON A HEADLINE WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE AS ANY SIGNIFICANT                
SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER THE PEAK TUESDAY MORNING DRIVE                 
TIME.                                                                           
THE SYSTEM IN QUESTION IS TAKING SHAPE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS               
AFTERNOON WITH A STRONGLY ELONGATED AREA OF SNOW EXTENDING EASTWARD             
ALONG THE 850 TO 700 MB THETA-E GRADIENT. THIS PATTERN WILL BE                  
ADVECTED NORTHWARD INTO OUR OHIO BORDER COUNTIES BY SUNRISE TUESDAY             
MORNING AND WILL PROCEED NORTHWARD AS THETA-E/WARM ADVECTION UNFOLDS            
AS THE PRIMARY MODE OF FORCING DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AFTER THAT,            
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT SHOWING THETA-E ADVECTION COMBINING               
WITH DYNAMIC FORCING DURING THE AFTERNOON IN TERMS OF DCVA WITH THE             
UPPER WAVE. MORE IMPORTANT IS THE MOISTURE, STABILITY, AND                      
TEMPERATURE PROFILES REVEALED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS             
WHICH SUGGEST AN IMPRESSIVE BURST OF SNOW DURING THE 15Z TO 00Z TIME            
PERIOD. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST LIFT COMBINES WITH THE LOWEST MID                
LEVEL STABILITY, AND EVEN SHALLOW LAYERS OF CONVECTION, ABOVE THE               
FRONTAL ZONE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A DEEP LAYER OF                      
ISOTHERMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE -10 TO -15C RANGE WHICH SHOULD BE                
FAVORABLE FOR SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH. AT THE SAME TIME, THIS COULD BE A            
LIMITING FACTOR IF TEMPERATURES GET TOO CLOSE TO -10C OR EVEN BECOME            
WARMER THAN -10C AND/OR ARE ONLY SATURATED AT WARMER TEMPERATURES               
BELOW THAT LEVEL. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR FROM ABOUT               
DETROIT SOUTH WHERE MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS SHOWN TO HAVE A CHANCE OF              
MOVING INTO THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY.                                        
THE TRAILING DEFORMATION ON THE NORTH AND WEST FLANK OF THE UPPER               
WAVE WILL GIVE A BOOST TO ANY LAKE EFFECT IN THE THUMB TUESDAY                  
NIGHT. A SHORT PERIOD OF NORTHERLY FLOW WITH INVERSION HEIGHT NEAR 7            
KFT AND LAKE TO 850 MB DELTA-T AROUND 18C WILL SET UP POTENTIAL FOR             
AN EXTRA COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW IN THAT AREA BEFORE THE WINDS TURN            
TO THE NW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.                                                 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE VERY QUICKLY THROUGH SE MICHIGAN ON                
WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE OVER CENTRAL              
SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. AGREEMENT ON THIS PATTERN DURING THURSDAY              
AND FRIDAY IS BETTER TODAY AMONG THE 12Z MODEL RUNS. PAST DIFFERENCES           
WERE RELATED TO THE DEPTH OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AXIS OVER               
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IT SEEMS THAT THE 12Z RUNS              
HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT ON A STRONGER NORTHERN TROUGH AND FASTER               
SURFACE LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY THE                      
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. OUR NEXT BEST                  
CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE                
AROUND 12Z FRIDAY MORNING.                                                      
ANY REMAINING TIMING DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE               
FRIDAY SYSTEM ARE WORKED OUT BY SATURDAY. EXPECTATIONS FOR THE FIRST            
HALF OF THE WEEKEND REMAIN DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, ONLY             
NOT AS FRIGID AS RECENT DAYS. THE GLOBAL MODELS ALL INDICATE SOME               
FASHION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY TO FOSTER            
THE DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S LOOK OK FROM THE              
GUIDANCE NUMBERS. A CHANCE OF SNOW THEN RETURNS TO THE FORECAST FOR             
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT              
LAKES FROM CENTRAL CANADA.                                                      
MARINE...                                                                       
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINANT OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR             
BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE             
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING SNOW TO LOWER MICHIGAN            
AND THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. HEADLINES (SMALL CRAFT OR               
BRISK WIND ADVISORIES) FOR WINDS AND WAVES WILL NOT BE NEEDED IN                
ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...AS WINDS WILL REMAIN              
BELOW THE THRESHOLDS.                                                           
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES             
ON THURSDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE TO SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE COLD                 
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SWEEP DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT             
LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS LAKE HURON              
AND INTO ONTARIO. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO VEER TO THE                          
NORTHWEST...BUT SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 20 KNOTS.                   
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION.....MR                                                                 
UPDATE.......MR                                                                 
SHORT TERM...HLO                                                                
LONG TERM....BT                                                                 
MARINE.......HLO                                                                
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1037 PM EST MON FEB 11 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
LATEST RADAR...ALONG WITH SUPPORTIVE 00Z RUC/NAM GUIDANCE...INDICATING          
THE NARROW BAND OF LGT/MDT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF MID-                 
LEVEL FGEN FORCING WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE MICHIGAN BORDER                
AS IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. BESIDES THIS FEATURE...OVERALL             
FORCING LOOKS MEAGER PRIOR TO 12Z...GIVEN LIMITED ISENTROPIC                    
LIFT/LARGE SCALE ACCENT. THUS...WILL TRIM POPS BACK FOR                         
TONIGHT...HOLDING ON TO JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR RIGHT AROUND                      
DAYBREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO TIER OF COUNTIES. ACCUMULATIONS                
LOOK TO BE LITTLE IF ANY FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. IN FACT...00Z NAM             
JUST ROLLING IN SUGGESTS THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL                
TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING.                                                     
REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GOOD                    
RADIATIONAL COOLING...GIVEN A WEAK GRADIENT AND LACK OF CLOUD                   
COVER (ESPECIALLY NORTHERN HALF). SEEING A WIDE RANGE IN                        
TEMPERATURES AT THE MOMENT...WITH TEMPERATURES IN OAKLAND COUNTY                
ALONE RANGING FROM -3F IN WHITE LAKE TO 12F IN TROY. GIVEN THE                  
DRYNESS OF THIS AIRMASS (DEWPOINTS 0 TO -5F) THE POTENTIAL EXISTS               
FOR QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS TO BOTTOM OUT BELOW 0F. THUS...ADJUST                 
LOWS DOWN SLIGHTLY SLIGHTLY...ESPECIALLY FROM M-59 NORTHWARD.                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 618 PM EST MON FEB 11 2008                            
AVIATION...                                                                     
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH HIGHER CLOUD                 
COVER ABOVE 10KFT CONTINUING TO THICKEN. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA            
WILL SLIDE EAST TONIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARD THE OHIO                
VALLEY ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE EAST                     
OVERNIGHT...AND ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD SOUTHEAST             
LOWER MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND         
SLOWER WITH THE INITIAL ONSET OF SNOW...HOLDING OFF MVFR                        
CONDITIONS UNTIL THE 12-16Z TIMEFRAME. A BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW                  
LOOKS TO OCCUR BETWEEN 18-00Z...BRINGING CONDITIONS DOWN INTO                   
PREVAILING IFR...WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF LIFR ESPECIALLY AT                  
DTW/DET/FNT.                                                                    
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 401 PM EST MON FEB 11 2008                             
SHORT TERM... THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT                                        
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BETWEEN AN EAST TO WEST ORIENTATED SURFACE                
TROUGH OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...AND STRONG SURFACE HIGH                   
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...HAS BROUGHT SOME                       
CLOUDINESS/FLURRIES INTO THE EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE                   
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION SEEN            
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLIER TODAY...THESE CLOUDS SHOULD MAKE LITTLE            
ADDITIONAL PROGRESSION INTO THE TRI-CITIES AND THUMB THE REST OF THE            
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LATE                     
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THE EAST/WEST TROUGH IS FORCED TO                   
RETREAT BACK NORTHWARD. MAY SEE SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS             
OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MIDLAND...BAY...AND HURON                     
COUNTIES...AS WELL AS SAGINAW BAY...INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE               
ACTIVITY AND LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE PUSHED BACK NORTH.                            
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER TO THE               
REST OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND FIRST HALF OF THE                
NIGHT.                                                                          
DIFFUSE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL               
CONSOLIDATE AND AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS                     
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE REFLECTION WILL TRACK FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS               
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY DAYBREAK...ALLOWING THE NORTHERN FRINGE            
OF THE 925-850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE TO LIFT INTO FAR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN             
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME               
FAIRLY LIGHT ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE            
FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH            
THE ARRIVAL OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND QPF...AND WILL TWEAK FORECAST            
ACCORDINGLY. LIKELY POPS WERE KEPT FROM DETROIT SOUTHWARD...WITH UP             
TO ABOUT A HALF INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. ELSEWHERE...JUST CHANCE              
POPS WITH A DUSTING OF SNOW EXPECTED AT BEST THROUGH 700 AM.                    
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THIS NEXT WINTER STORM.            
THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST                  
AREAS. WIND CHILLS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT UNDER             
THE SURFACE HIGH. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST AT THE LOWER END OF MOS             
GUIDANCE IN THE SOUTH...AND A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE FROM I-69              
NORTHWARD AS MOS NUMBERS THERE HAVE BEEN TOO WARM RECENTLY.                     
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY                                         
SNOW WILL BE UNDERWAY NEAR THE OHIO BORDER AT SUNRISE TUESDAY, WILL             
SPREAD NORTHWARD DURING THE MORNING HOURS, AND REACH THE TRI CITIES             
AND NORTHERN THUMB BY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL THEN DIMINISH IN A               
SIMILAR FASHION, FROM SOUTH TO NORTH, DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON IN              
THE SOUTH AND DURING TUESDAY EVENING IN THE NORTH WITH SOME LAKE                
EFFECT LINGERING IN THE THUMB. TOTAL ACCUMULATION COULD EXCEED                  
ADVISORY THRESHOLD OF 4 INCHES IN 18 TO 24 HOURS, BUT WE WILL HOLD              
OFF ON A HEADLINE WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE AS ANY SIGNIFICANT                
SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER THE PEAK TUESDAY MORNING DRIVE                 
TIME.                                                                           
THE SYSTEM IN QUESTION IS TAKING SHAPE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS               
AFTERNOON WITH A STRONGLY ELONGATED AREA OF SNOW EXTENDING EASTWARD             
ALONG THE 850 TO 700 MB THETA-E GRADIENT. THIS PATTERN WILL BE                  
ADVECTED NORTHWARD INTO OUR OHIO BORDER COUNTIES BY SUNRISE TUESDAY             
MORNING AND WILL PROCEED NORTHWARD AS THETA-E/WARM ADVECTION UNFOLDS            
AS THE PRIMARY MODE OF FORCING DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AFTER THAT,            
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT SHOWING THETA-E ADVECTION COMBINING               
WITH DYNAMIC FORCING DURING THE AFTERNOON IN TERMS OF DCVA WITH THE             
UPPER WAVE. MORE IMPORTANT IS THE MOISTURE, STABILITY, AND                      
TEMPERATURE PROFILES REVEALED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS             
WHICH SUGGEST AN IMPRESSIVE BURST OF SNOW DURING THE 15Z TO 00Z TIME            
PERIOD. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST LIFT COMBINES WITH THE LOWEST MID                
LEVEL STABILITY, AND EVEN SHALLOW LAYERS OF CONVECTION, ABOVE THE               
FRONTAL ZONE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A DEEP LAYER OF                      
ISOTHERMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE -10 TO -15C RANGE WHICH SHOULD BE                
FAVORABLE FOR SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH. AT THE SAME TIME, THIS COULD BE A            
LIMITING FACTOR IF TEMPERATURES GET TOO CLOSE TO -10C OR EVEN BECOME            
WARMER THAN -10C AND/OR ARE ONLY SATURATED AT WARMER TEMPERATURES               
BELOW THAT LEVEL. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR FROM ABOUT               
DETROIT SOUTH WHERE MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS SHOWN TO HAVE A CHANCE OF              
MOVING INTO THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY.                                        
THE TRAILING DEFORMATION ON THE NORTH AND WEST FLANK OF THE UPPER               
WAVE WILL GIVE A BOOST TO ANY LAKE EFFECT IN THE THUMB TUESDAY                  
NIGHT. A SHORT PERIOD OF NORTHERLY FLOW WITH INVERSION HEIGHT NEAR 7            
KFT AND LAKE TO 850 MB DELTA-T AROUND 18C WILL SET UP POTENTIAL FOR             
AN EXTRA COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW IN THAT AREA BEFORE THE WINDS TURN            
TO THE NW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.                                                 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE VERY QUICKLY THROUGH SE MICHIGAN ON                
WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE OVER CENTRAL              
SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. AGREEMENT ON THIS PATTERN DURING THURSDAY              
AND FRIDAY IS BETTER TODAY AMONG THE 12Z MODEL RUNS. PAST DIFFERENCES           
WERE RELATED TO THE DEPTH OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AXIS OVER               
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IT SEEMS THAT THE 12Z RUNS              
HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT ON A STRONGER NORTHERN TROUGH AND FASTER               
SURFACE LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY THE                      
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. OUR NEXT BEST                  
CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE                
AROUND 12Z FRIDAY MORNING.                                                      
ANY REMAINING TIMING DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE               
FRIDAY SYSTEM ARE WORKED OUT BY SATURDAY. EXPECTATIONS FOR THE FIRST            
HALF OF THE WEEKEND REMAIN DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, ONLY             
NOT AS FRIGID AS RECENT DAYS. THE GLOBAL MODELS ALL INDICATE SOME               
FASHION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY TO FOSTER            
THE DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S LOOK OK FROM THE              
GUIDANCE NUMBERS. A CHANCE OF SNOW THEN RETURNS TO THE FORECAST FOR             
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT              
LAKES FROM CENTRAL CANADA.                                                      
MARINE...                                                                       
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINANT OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR             
BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE             
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING SNOW TO LOWER MICHIGAN            
AND THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. HEADLINES (SMALL CRAFT OR               
BRISK WIND ADVISORIES) FOR WINDS AND WAVES WILL NOT BE NEEDED IN                
ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...AS WINDS WILL REMAIN              
BELOW THE THRESHOLDS.                                                           
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES             
ON THURSDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE TO SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE COLD                 
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SWEEP DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT             
LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS LAKE HURON              
AND INTO ONTARIO. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO VEER TO THE                          
NORTHWEST...BUT SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 20 KNOTS.                   
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE.......MR                                                                 
AVIATION.....MR                                                                 
SHORT TERM...HLO                                                                
LONG TERM....BT                                                                 
MARINE.......HLO                                                                
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1024 PM EST MON FEB 11 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MAIN FCST ISSUE OVERNIGHT IS TEMPS.                                             
AT 02Z...A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS EXISTS ACROSS THE FCST AREA...RANGING            
FROM NEAR -10F WHERE SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR (MAINLY INTERIOR SRN                
UPPER MI) TO AROUND 10 ABOVE WHERE SKIES ARE CLOUDY. FLURRIES/-SHSN             
AFFECTING PARTS OF THE NW FCST AREA AND ERN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA              
WILL END OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...AND LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL CLEAR              
OUT. SO...TEMPS WILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO NOSE DIVE LATER IN THE              
NIGHT. HOWEVER...MID CLOUDS ARE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS NRN MN.                
THESE MAY SPREAD INTO PARTS OF THE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT...THOUGH 00Z             
RUC IS SLOW TO SPREAD THE CLOUDS E. ANOTHER CLOUD ISSUE IS LAKE                 
EFFECT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. WHILE SFC WINDS WILL NOT BECOME SE...AT               
950MB AND ABOVE...WIND DOES BECOME SERLY DURING THE NIGHT. THIS                 
SHOULD RESULT IN CLOUDS DEVELOPING INTO CNTRL UPPER MI. SO...CLOUD              
FCST IS NOT A SIMPLE MATTER WHICH MAKES TEMP FCST EXTREMELY                     
DIFFICULT. HAVE LOWERED MINS TO -15 TO -20F ALONG THE WI BORDER FROM            
E OF KIWD TOWARD KIMT GIVEN CURRENT TEMPS AND POTENTIAL FOR THAT                
AREA TO SEE LEAST CLOUD COVER FOR LONGEST DURATION DURING THE NIGHT.            
ALSO LOWERED TEMPS SUBSTANTIALLY FROM MENOMINEE COUNTY TO SRN                   
SCHOOLCRAFT. BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE LATER IN THE NIGHT...THERE                  
SHOULD BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR TEMPS TO CRASH. LOWERED TEMPS TOWARD               
-10F IN THOSE AREAS.                                                            
AS FOR PCPN...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING E ACROSS THE             
CNTRL PLAINS WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE S THRU THE NIGHT. IN                       
ADDITION...EVENING SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR TO               
OVERCOME. HAVE THUS TRIMMED POPS OVER THE SRN FCST AREA OVERNIGHT.              
ONLY RETAINED LOW POPS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE SOME LAKE EFFECT                
FLURRIES/-SHSN MAY DEVELOP LATE...MAINLY S OF KESC.                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 400 PM EST)...                                      
SHORT TERM (TNGT AND TUE)...                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO            
EMBEDDED IN A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA. A RIDGE IS OVER              
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST CANADA. A SHORTWAVE IS DIGGING              
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS IT SLIDES DOWN THE LEE OF THE WEST COAST            
RIDGE. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LARGE HIGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT               
LAKES REGION...WHILE A LOW IS DEEPENING OVER TEXAS. A WARM FRONT IS             
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. MOST OF THE U.P. STATIONS             
ARE REPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. THE                 
EXCEPTIONS ARE AREAS ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE WHERE                        
TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE TEENS.                                              
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH                    
TUESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES                 
DELTA-T`S CONTINUE TO BE COOL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS               
OVER AREA PRONE TO LES WITH A NORTH FLOW. THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE                
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DEEPEN INTO A TROUGH OVER THE UPPER                        
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT AND SHIFT INTO THE UPPER MICHIGAN              
ON TUESDAY. GFS SHOWING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN             
SURFACE DEW POINT OVER THE AREA AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT OF THE                
CENTRAL PLAINS PUSH TOWARDS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. 850MB                        
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN AROUND -16C STILL COOL ENOUGH OVER               
THE LAKES TO PRODUCE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE SOUTHERN U.P.               
WHERE THERE WILL BE A SOUTHERLY FLOW.                                           
LONG TERM (TUE NGT THRU MON)...                                                 
ON TUE NGT/WED...MOST MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND WEAKER WITH                
SHRTWV FCST TO SWING THRU ONTARIO AND ASSOCIATED COLD FROPA INTO THE            
UPR GRT LKS LATE TUE NGT AND WED DESPITE UPR PATTERN FEATURING HI               
AMPLITUDE RDG OVER WRN CAN THAT WOULD SUPPORT A MORE STRONGLY                   
DIGGING SYS. GIVEN FVRBL UPR PATTERN...WL BLEND THE GFS WITH THE                
STRONGER 12Z UKMET FOR THIS SYS. THAT SCENARIO SUGS ASSOCIATED COLD             
FNT WL APRCH THE WRN ZNS AFT MIDNGT TUE NGT...SO MAINTAINED GOING               
CHC POPS IN THAT AREA WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WL TEND TO OFFSET DRYNESS.             
THEN SOME LGT LES NEAR LK SUP ON WED WITH COLD AIR INTRUSION BEHIND             
COLD FROPA (H85 TEMPS FCST ON WED RANGES FM -20C TO -24C PER THE                
UKMET TO -16C TO -20C ON THE GFS). RELATIVELY SHALLOW...DRY NATURE              
OF COLD AIR INTRUSION AND GENERAL ACYC FLOW IN THE WAKE OF COLD FNT             
SHOULD LIMIT LES AMTS.                                                          
EXACT FCST FOR WED NGT AND THU DEPENDS ON COMPLEX INTERACTION BTWN              
POLAR AND ARCTIC BRANCH DISTURBANCES OVER THE UPR MS VALLEY AND                 
ASSOCIATED SFC LO DVLPMNT/FGEN ON ITS NRN FLANK. PER NCEP                       
GUIDANCE...TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS HANDLING OF THIS INTERACTION BTWN             
ARCTIC AIR SURGING S FM CAN AND LO PRES DVLPG IN ADVANCE OF POLAR               
BRANCH SHRTWV. OPTED TO BUMP POPS UP TO HI LIKELY OVER THE SRN TIER             
LATE WED NGT/THU CLOSER TO LO PRES TRACK TO THE S. SHARP H85-7 FGEN             
AND UPR DVGC IN THE RRQ OF H3 JET MAX JUST S OF JAMES BAY JUSTIFIES             
POPS TOWARD THE HI END OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. ELY FLOW OVER NRN LK MI            
WITH H85 TEMPS ARND -12C WL SUPPORT SOME LK ENHANCEMENT OVER THE                
SCNTRL WITH HIER QPF THERE. WITH SHARP FGEN TENDING TO ENHANCE LLVL             
CAD...TENDED TOWARD THE LOWER END OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.                    
TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO THE DEPARTURE SPEED OF SFC LO ON THU NGT               
AND TREND TOWARD TRANSITION TO PURE LES. SINCE 12Z GFS HAS TRENDED              
TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF WITH FASTER EXIT OF THE LO...TENDED TO FOLLOW              
THAT TREND WITH FASTER END OF PCPN OVER THE S/TRANSITION TO LES NEAR            
LK SUP. THEN PERSISTENT LES ON FRI NEAR LK SUP WITH INFLUX OF VERY              
COLD AIR (GFS SHOWS H85 TEMPS SINKING TO ARND -25C). APRCH OF SHRTWV            
RDGING/SFC HI ON FRI NGT/SAT WL DIMINISH THESE SHSN. HEDGED TOWARD              
THE LOWER END OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR SAT MRNG LO TEMPS WITH ARRIVAL OF             
RDG AXIS/LIGHTER WINDS. NEXT CLIPPER LO DUE TO APRCH LATE SAT AND               
BRING CHC POPS...HIEST TO THE N...AS CLIPPER TRACKS ACRS LK                     
SUP/ONTARIO ON SUN. TEMPS WL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL WITH FAIRLY STRG            
SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYS...BUT ARRIVAL OF REINFORCING                     
SHRTWV/COLD FNT ON LATE SUN/MON WL TREND TEMPS DOWN AGAIN AND                   
RESTART LES.                                                                    
COORDINATED WITH NCEP/APX/LOT/GRB/DLH.                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FLUCTUATE BTWN VFR AND MVFR (UPPER END               
MVFR CIGS) THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AT BOTH KCMX AND KSAW...THOUGH KCMX            
SHOULD TREND TO PREDOMINANT VFR LATER IN THE NIGHT THRU TUE AS                  
LOW-LEVEL WINDS TAKE ON AN OVER LAND COMPONENT INSTEAD OF OVER                  
WATER. AT KSAW...THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD LATE IN THE NIGHT THRU TUE            
MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS. SE UPSLOPE FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD           
BRING MVFR CIGS BACK TO KSAW TUE AFTN. OCCASIONAL FLURRIES THRU THE             
EVENING HRS SHOULD NOT REDUCE VIS BLO VFR.                                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
WILL LIKELY HAVE A LAND BREEZE TO CONTEND WITH TONIGHT WITH THE HIGH            
OVERHEAD AND COLD TEMPS ACROSS INLAND AREAS. THE HIGH QUICKLY SHIFTS            
EAST OF THE LAKES ON TUESDAY...GIVING WAY TO A COLD FRONT                       
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS TAKES THE FRONT.               
WILL KEEP WINDS 15-25 KT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT IT COULD                
APPROACH 30 KT WED AFTN. ANOTHER LOW MOVES ALONG THE FRONT AND INTO             
THE UPPER LAKES BY THU MORNING. NUMEROUS MODEL DIFFERENCES...AND                
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK 30KT WIND IS POSSIBLE THU. HEAVY                   
FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY OVER AT PORTIONS OF THE LK ON WED NGT THRU             
SAT AS COLD AIR RETAINS ITS LOCK ON THE UPR GRT LKS.                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                                
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...ROLFSON                                                                
SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...DLG                                                     
LONG TERM DISCUSSION...KC                                                       
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...DLG                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
638 PM EST MON FEB 11 2008                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS                                        
.SHORT TERM (TNGT AND TUE ISSUED AT 400 PM EST)...                              
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO            
EMBEDDED IN A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA. A RIDGE IS OVER              
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST CANADA. A SHORTWAVE IS DIGGING              
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS IT SLIDES DOWN THE LEE OF THE WEST COAST            
RIDGE. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LARGE HIGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT               
LAKES REGION...WHILE A LOW IS DEEPENING OVER TEXAS. A WARM FRONT IS             
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. MOST OF THE U.P. STATIONS             
ARE REPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. THE                 
EXCEPTIONS ARE AREAS ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE WHERE                        
TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE TEENS.                                              
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH                    
TUESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES                 
DELTA-T`S CONTINUE TO BE COOL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS               
OVER AREA PRONE TO LES WITH A NORTH FLOW. THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE                
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DEEPEN INTO A TROUGH OVER THE UPPER                        
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT AND SHIFT INTO THE UPPER MICHIGAN              
ON TUESDAY. GFS SHOWING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN             
SURFACE DEW POINT OVER THE AREA AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT OF THE                
CENTRAL PLAINS PUSH TOWARDS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. 850MB                        
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN AROUND -16C STILL COOL ENOUGH OVER               
THE LAKES TO PRODUCE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE SOUTHERN U.P.               
WHERE THERE WILL BE A SOUTHERLY FLOW.                                           
.LONG TERM (TUE NGT THRU MON)...                                                
ON TUE NGT/WED...MOST MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND WEAKER WITH                
SHRTWV FCST TO SWING THRU ONTARIO AND ASSOCIATED COLD FROPA INTO THE            
UPR GRT LKS LATE TUE NGT AND WED DESPITE UPR PATTERN FEATURING HI               
AMPLITUDE RDG OVER WRN CAN THAT WOULD SUPPORT A MORE STRONGLY                   
DIGGING SYS. GIVEN FVRBL UPR PATTERN...WL BLEND THE GFS WITH THE                
STRONGER 12Z UKMET FOR THIS SYS. THAT SCENARIO SUGS ASSOCIATED COLD             
FNT WL APRCH THE WRN ZNS AFT MIDNGT TUE NGT...SO MAINTAINED GOING               
CHC POPS IN THAT AREA WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WL TEND TO OFFSET DRYNESS.             
THEN SOME LGT LES NEAR LK SUP ON WED WITH COLD AIR INTRUSION BEHIND             
COLD FROPA (H85 TEMPS FCST ON WED RANGES FM -20C TO -24C PER THE                
UKMET TO -16C TO -20C ON THE GFS). RELATIVELY SHALLOW...DRY NATURE              
OF COLD AIR INTRUSION AND GENERAL ACYC FLOW IN THE WAKE OF COLD FNT             
SHOULD LIMIT LES AMTS.                                                          
EXACT FCST FOR WED NGT AND THU DEPENDS ON COMPLEX INTERACTION BTWN              
POLAR AND ARCTIC BRANCH DISTURBANCES OVER THE UPR MS VALLEY AND                 
ASSOCIATED SFC LO DVLPMNT/FGEN ON ITS NRN FLANK. PER NCEP                       
GUIDANCE...TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS HANDLING OF THIS INTERACTION BTWN             
ARCTIC AIR SURGING S FM CAN AND LO PRES DVLPG IN ADVANCE OF POLAR               
BRANCH SHRTWV. OPTED TO BUMP POPS UP TO HI LIKELY OVER THE SRN TIER             
LATE WED NGT/THU CLOSER TO LO PRES TRACK TO THE S. SHARP H85-7 FGEN             
AND UPR DVGC IN THE RRQ OF H3 JET MAX JUST S OF JAMES BAY JUSTIFIES             
POPS TOWARD THE HI END OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. ELY FLOW OVER NRN LK MI            
WITH H85 TEMPS ARND -12C WL SUPPORT SOME LK ENHANCEMENT OVER THE                
SCNTRL WITH HIER QPF THERE. WITH SHARP FGEN TENDING TO ENHANCE LLVL             
CAD...TENDED TOWARD THE LOWER END OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.                    
TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO THE DEPARTURE SPEED OF SFC LO ON THU NGT               
AND TREND TOWARD TRANSITION TO PURE LES. SINCE 12Z GFS HAS TRENDED              
TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF WITH FASTER EXIT OF THE LO...TENDED TO FOLLOW              
THAT TREND WITH FASTER END OF PCPN OVER THE S/TRANSITION TO LES NEAR            
LK SUP. THEN PERSISTENT LES ON FRI NEAR LK SUP WITH INFLUX OF VERY              
COLD AIR (GFS SHOWS H85 TEMPS SINKING TO ARND -25C). APRCH OF SHRTWV            
RDGING/SFC HI ON FRI NGT/SAT WL DIMINISH THESE SHSN. HEDGED TOWARD              
THE LOWER END OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR SAT MRNG LO TEMPS WITH ARRIVAL OF             
RDG AXIS/LIGHTER WINDS. NEXT CLIPPER LO DUE TO APRCH LATE SAT AND               
BRING CHC POPS...HIEST TO THE N...AS CLIPPER TRACKS ACRS LK                     
SUP/ONTARIO ON SUN. TEMPS WL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL WITH FAIRLY STRG            
SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYS...BUT ARRIVAL OF REINFORCING                     
SHRTWV/COLD FNT ON LATE SUN/MON WL TREND TEMPS DOWN AGAIN AND                   
RESTART LES.                                                                    
COORDINATED WITH NCEP/APX/LOT/GRB/DLH.                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FLUCTUATE BTWN VFR AND MVFR (UPPER END               
MVFR CIGS) THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AT BOTH KCMX AND KSAW...THOUGH KCMX            
SHOULD TREND TO PREDOMINANT VFR LATER IN THE NIGHT THRU TUE AS                  
LOW-LEVEL WINDS TAKE ON AN OVER LAND COMPONENT INSTEAD OF OVER                  
WATER. AT KSAW...THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD LATE IN THE NIGHT THRU TUE            
MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS. SE UPSLOPE FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD           
BRING MVFR CIGS BACK TO KSAW TUE AFTN. OCCASIONAL FLURRIES THRU THE             
EVENING HRS SHOULD NOT REDUCE VIS BLO VFR.                                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
WILL LIKELY HAVE A LAND BREEZE TO CONTEND WITH TONIGHT WITH THE HIGH            
OVERHEAD AND COLD TEMPS ACROSS INLAND AREAS. THE HIGH QUICKLY SHIFTS            
EAST OF THE LAKES ON TUESDAY...GIVING WAY TO A COLD FRONT                       
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS TAKES THE FRONT.               
WILL KEEP WINDS 15-25 KT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT IT COULD                
APPROACH 30 KT WED AFTN. ANOTHER LOW MOVES ALONG THE FRONT AND INTO             
THE UPPER LAKES BY THU MORNING. NUMEROUS MODEL DIFFERENCES...AND                
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK 30KT WIND IS POSSIBLE THU. HEAVY                   
FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY OVER AT PORTIONS OF THE LK ON WED NGT THRU             
SAT AS COLD AIR RETAINS ITS LOCK ON THE UPR GRT LKS.                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                                
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...DLG                                                     
LONG TERM DISCUSSION...KC                                                       
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...DLG                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
400 PM EST MON FEB 11 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION (TNGT AND TUE)...                                        
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO            
EMBEDDED IN A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA. A RIDGE IS OVER              
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST CANADA. A SHORTWAVE IS DIGGING              
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS IT SLIDES DOWN THE LEE OF THE WEST COAST            
RIDGE. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LARGE HIGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT               
LAKES REGION...WHILE A LOW IS DEEPENING OVER TEXAS. A WARM FRONT IS             
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. MOST OF THE U.P. STATIONS             
ARE REPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. THE                 
EXCEPTIONS ARE AREAS ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE WHERE                        
TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE TEENS.                                              
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH                    
TUESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES                 
DELTA-T`S CONTINUE TO BE COOL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS               
OVER AREA PRONE TO LES WITH A NORTH FLOW. THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE                
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DEEPEN INTO A TROUGH OVER THE UPPER                        
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT AND SHIFT INTO THE UPPER MICHIGAN              
ON TUESDAY. GFS SHOWING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN             
SURFACE DEW POINT OVER THE AREA AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT OF THE                
CENTRAL PLAINS PUSH TOWARDS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. 850MB                        
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN AROUND -16C STILL COOL ENOUGH OVER               
THE LAKES TO PRODUCE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE SOUTHERN U.P.               
WHERE THERE WILL BE A SOUTHERLY FLOW.                                           
.LONG TERM DISCUSSION (TUE NGT THRU MON)...                                     
ON TUE NGT/WED...MOST MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND WEAKER WITH                
SHRTWV FCST TO SWING THRU ONTARIO AND ASSOCIATED COLD FROPA INTO THE            
UPR GRT LKS LATE TUE NGT AND WED DESPITE UPR PATTERN FEATURING HI               
AMPLITUDE RDG OVER WRN CAN THAT WOULD SUPPORT A MORE STRONGLY                   
DIGGING SYS. GIVEN FVRBL UPR PATTERN...WL BLEND THE GFS WITH THE                
STRONGER 12Z UKMET FOR THIS SYS. THAT SCENARIO SUGS ASSOCIATED COLD             
FNT WL APRCH THE WRN ZNS AFT MIDNGT TUE NGT...SO MAINTAINED GOING               
CHC POPS IN THAT AREA WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WL TEND TO OFFSET DRYNESS.             
THEN SOME LGT LES NEAR LK SUP ON WED WITH COLD AIR INTRUSION BEHIND             
COLD FROPA (H85 TEMPS FCST ON WED RANGES FM -20C TO -24C PER THE                
UKMET TO -16C TO -20C ON THE GFS). RELATIVELY SHALLOW...DRY NATURE              
OF COLD AIR INTRUSION AND GENERAL ACYC FLOW IN THE WAKE OF COLD FNT             
SHOULD LIMIT LES AMTS.                                                          
EXACT FCST FOR WED NGT AND THU DEPENDS ON COMPLEX INTERACTION BTWN              
POLAR AND ARCTIC BRANCH DISTURBANCES OVER THE UPR MS VALLEY AND                 
ASSOCIATED SFC LO DVLPMNT/FGEN ON ITS NRN FLANK. PER NCEP                       
GUIDANCE...TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS HANDLING OF THIS INTERACTION BTWN             
ARCTIC AIR SURGING S FM CAN AND LO PRES DVLPG IN ADVANCE OF POLAR               
BRANCH SHRTWV. OPTED TO BUMP POPS UP TO HI LIKELY OVER THE SRN TIER             
LATE WED NGT/THU CLOSER TO LO PRES TRACK TO THE S. SHARP H85-7 FGEN             
AND UPR DVGC IN THE RRQ OF H3 JET MAX JUST S OF JAMES BAY JUSTIFIES             
POPS TOWARD THE HI END OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. ELY FLOW OVER NRN LK MI            
WITH H85 TEMPS ARND -12C WL SUPPORT SOME LK ENHANCEMENT OVER THE                
SCNTRL WITH HIER QPF THERE. WITH SHARP FGEN TENDING TO ENHANCE LLVL             
CAD...TENDED TOWARD THE LOWER END OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.                    
TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO THE DEPARTURE SPEED OF SFC LO ON THU NGT               
AND TREND TOWARD TRANSITION TO PURE LES. SINCE 12Z GFS HAS TRENDED              
TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF WITH FASTER EXIT OF THE LO...TENDED TO FOLLOW              
THAT TREND WITH FASTER END OF PCPN OVER THE S/TRANSITION TO LES NEAR            
LK SUP. THEN PERSISTENT LES ON FRI NEAR LK SUP WITH INFLUX OF VERY              
COLD AIR (GFS SHOWS H85 TEMPS SINKING TO ARND -25C). APRCH OF SHRTWV            
RDGING/SFC HI ON FRI NGT/SAT WL DIMINISH THESE SHSN. HEDGED TOWARD              
THE LOWER END OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR SAT MRNG LO TEMPS WITH ARRIVAL OF             
RDG AXIS/LIGHTER WINDS. NEXT CLIPPER LO DUE TO APRCH LATE SAT AND               
BRING CHC POPS...HIEST TO THE N...AS CLIPPER TRACKS ACRS LK                     
SUP/ONTARIO ON SUN. TEMPS WL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL WITH FAIRLY STRG            
SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYS...BUT ARRIVAL OF REINFORCING                     
SHRTWV/COLD FNT ON LATE SUN/MON WL TREND TEMPS DOWN AGAIN AND                   
RESTART LES.                                                                    
COORDINATED WITH NCEP/APX/LOT/GRB/DLH.                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
CONDITIONS ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING AT KCMX. OCCASIONAL REDUCED VSBYS IS            
MAINLY DUE TO THE FINE NATURE OF THE SNOW AND IN REALITY NOT MUCH IS            
ACCUMULATING. WILL CONTINUE WITH IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE            
WIND TURNS NORTHERLY. AT SAW...MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR              
MUCH OF THE DAY. IN FACT...AS THE WINDS TURN MORE NORTHERLY...SOME              
OF THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS MAY MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS EASTERN MARQUETTE              
COUNTY. HOWEVER...AT THE SAME TIME THE INVERSION WILL BE CRASHING SO            
THE SNOW SHOULD ONLY REDUCE VSBYS TO 3-5SM AT TIMES. ALL SITES                  
SHOULD BECOME VFR LATE THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD.                
AS A LOW MOVES INTO LOWER MICHIGAN TUESDAY MORNING...A DECK OF LOW              
CLOUDS AND SOME SNOW SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE KSAW AREA.                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
WILL LIKELY HAVE A LAND BREEZE TO CONTEND WITH TONIGHT WITH THE HIGH            
OVERHEAD AND COLD TEMPS ACROSS INLAND AREAS. THE HIGH QUICKLY SHIFTS            
EAST OF THE LAKES ON TUESDAY...GIVING WAY TO A COLD FRONT                       
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS TAKES THE FRONT.               
WILL KEEP WINDS 15-25 KT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT IT COULD                
APPROACH 30 KT WED AFTN. ANOTHER LOW MOVES ALONG THE FRONT AND INTO             
THE UPPER LAKES BY THU MORNING. NUMEROUS MODEL DIFFERENCES...AND                
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK 30KT WIND IS POSSIBLE THU. HEAVY                   
FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY OVER AT PORTIONS OF THE LK ON WED NGT THRU             
SAT AS COLD AIR RETAINS ITS LOCK ON THE UPR GRT LKS.                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                                
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...DLG                                                     
LONG TERM DISCUSSION...KC                                                       
AVIATION...DLG                                                                  
MARINE...DLG                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1226 PM EST MON FEB 11 2008                                                     
UPDATE FOR AVIATION...                                                          
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
TODAY                                                                           
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE IS THE WIND CHILL                    
POTENTIAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON.                                                   
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO             
SWEEPING THROUGH THE BASE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT BLANKETS MUCH OF            
EASTERN CANADA. A RIDGE IS MOVING ASHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.            
WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE MOVING THROUGH MANITOBA AND SOUTH DAKOTA.                   
SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LARGE RIDGE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO AND THE             
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM                    
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO INTO THE EASTERN U.P. TO THE WEST A LOW PRESSURE              
CENTER CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. WINDS OVER            
THE AREA CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA.                 
THE SHORTWAVE OVER MANITOBA WILL SLIDE DOWN THE LEE OF THE RIDGE                
INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE EASTERN ONTARIO                   
SHORTWAVE SHIFTS INTO WESTERN QUEBEC. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXPAND             
ACROSS THE REST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION FORCING THE LOW OVER THE              
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SOUTHEAST INTO TEXAS. WITH THE RIDGE EXPANDING              
OVER THE AREA...THE WINDS AND WIND CHILL HAVE DECREASED BELOW                   
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THUS WILL ALLOW ALL THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY TO               
EXPIRE. THE LAKE-850MB DELTA-T`S WILL CONTINUE TO BE AROUND 23C                 
WHICH WILL PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS                  
VERFIED BY SATELLITE AND KMQT-88D. SURFACE REPORTS FOR OUR SNOW                 
NETWORK INDICATE SNOWFALL 4 INCHES OR LESS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA IN            
A 24 HOUR PERIOD. THUS WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES THE SNOW WILL BE              
VERY FINE AND WHICH WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATION. PLAN TO UPDATE THE ZFP             
FOR WORDING AND TO DROP THE MENTION OF WIND CHILL FOR THE REST OF               
TODAY.                                                                          
TONIGHT...AND LATER                                                             
WITH NE FLOW DOMINATING AND HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD KEEPING DRY AIR              
IN PLACE A BIT LONGER...HAVE DECREASED THE APPROACHING MID TO HIGH              
CLOUDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  THE LOW...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER            
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTERN              
ARKANSAS BY 12Z TUESDAY...BEFORE MOVING TO THE APPALACHIANS BY                  
WEDNESDAY MORNING.  MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL TO OUR                  
SOUTH...SO HAVE LIMITED POPS IN FOR THIS SYSTEM MAINLY SOUTH THROUGH            
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  ANOTHER LOW TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL MOVE TO                   
WESTERN HUDSON BAY TRAILING A COLD FRONT THOUGH CENTRAL                         
MANITOBA...AND FINALLY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR BY 06Z WEDNESDAY.  ONCE               
AGAIN...ONLY LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS ARE FIGURED AND MAINLY ACROSS THE               
NORTHERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN.                                                
THE NEXT SYSTEM WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT                         
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW IN GENERAL WILL               
COME IN FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE ITS INFLUENCE THROUGH             
THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.  THE 00Z GFS HAS TRANSFORMED SLIGHTLY WITH             
THIS SYSTEM.  THE SURFACE LOW THAT WAS OVER NW LAKE HURON AT 18Z                
FRIDAY OFF OF THE 18Z GFS...IS NOW ABOUT 20 MILES NW OF THAT                    
LOCATION AT 06Z FRIDAY.  ALL IN ALL...THE LATEST 00Z RUN OF THE GFS             
IS QUICKER AND SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK OF THE              
SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE END OF THE             
WORKWEEK.  WHAT THIS MAY MEAN FOR UPPER MICHIGAN IS NORTHWESTERLY               
WINDS HOLDING ON A BIT LONGER...OR FROM FRIDAY MORNING TO 06Z-12Z               
SATURDAY.  THE 00Z NAM WAS ALSO A BIT FASTER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN.             
OVERALL...THE GFS HAS TRENDED MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE                          
ECMWF...ALTHOUGH A LITTLE NORTH WITH ITS TRACK OF THE 500MB LOW.                
WITH HEDGE THE FORECAST MORE IN LINE WITH THE LATEST 00Z GFS                    
SOLUTION.                                                                       
DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE POP FORECAST AFTER 06Z                          
THURSDAY...DUE TO THE VARIABILITY IN THE FORECAST MODELS.                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
CONDITIONS ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING AT KCMX. OCCASIONAL REDUCED VSBYS IS            
MAINLY DUE TO THE FINE NATURE OF THE SNOW AND IN REALITY NOT MUCH IS            
ACCUMULATING. WILL CONTINUE WITH IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE            
WIND TURNS NORTHERLY. AT SAW...MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR              
MUCH OF THE DAY. IN FACT...AS THE WINDS TURN MORE NORTHERLY...SOME              
OF THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS MAY MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS EASTERN MARQUETTE              
COUNTY. HOWEVER...AT THE SAME TIME THE INVERSION WILL BE CRASHING SO            
THE SNOW SHOULD ONLY REDUCE VSBYS TO 3-5SM AT TIMES. ALL SITES                  
SHOULD BECOME VFR LATE THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD.                
AS A LOW MOVES INTO LOWER MICHIGAN TUESDAY MORNING...A DECK OF LOW              
CLOUDS AND SOME SNOW SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE KSAW AREA.                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD RAPIDLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT                
LAKES TODAY. WILL DROP ALL GALE WARNINGS WITH THIS ISSUANCE. WILL               
NEED TO KEEP HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY THIS MORNING BUT THAT SHOULD                  
DIMINISH AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WINDS ACROSS LAKE                    
SUPERIOR WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE TODAY TO LESS THAN 10 KT BY EVENING               
WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD. WILL LIKELY HAVE A LAND BREEZE TO CONTEND               
WITH TONIGHT WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD AND COLD TEMPS ACROSS INLAND                
AREAS. THE HIGH QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE LAKES ON TUESDAY...GIVING            
WAY TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TUE AFTN/NIGHT. THE               
NAM AND GFS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO FRONTAL POSITION BY             
WED EVENING...WITH THE GFS TAKING THE FRONT THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR               
WHILE THE NAM HOLDS THE FRONT UP JUST NORTH OF THE LAKE. AT THIS                
TIME THE GFS IS PREFERRED GIVEN IT/S AGREEMENT IN THE ECMWF. WILL               
KEEP WINDS 15-25 KT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT IT COULD APPROACH            
30 KT WED AFTN. ANOTHER LOW MOVES ALONG THE FRONT AND INTO THE                  
WESTERN LAKES BY THU MORNING. NUMEROUS MODEL DIFFERENCES...AND                  
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK 30KT WIND IS POSSIBLE THU.                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                                
LAKE SUPERIOR...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS                
     AFTERNOON FOR LSZ162-263>267.                                              
LAKE MICHIGAN...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS                
     AFTERNOON FOR LMZ248-250.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION (TODAY)...DLG                                                        
DISCUSSION (TONIGHT AND LATER)...KF                                             
AVIATION...MRD                                                                  
MARINE...MRD                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1126 AM EST MON FEB 11 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
.TODAY...                                                                       
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE IS THE WIND CHILL                    
POTENTIAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON.                                                   
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO             
SWEEPING THROUGH THE BASE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT BLANKETS MUCH OF            
EASTERN CANADA. A RIDGE IS MOVING ASHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.            
WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE MOVING THROUGH MANITOBA AND SOUTH DAKOTA.                   
SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LARGE RIDGE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO AND THE             
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM                    
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO INTO THE EASTERN U.P. TO THE WEST A LOW PRESSURE              
CENTER CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. WINDS OVER            
THE AREA CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA.                 
THE SHORTWAVE OVER MANITOBA WILL SLIDE DOWN THE LEE OF THE RIDGE                
INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE EASTERN ONTARIO                   
SHORTWAVE SHIFTS INTO WESTERN QUEBEC. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXPAND             
ACROSS THE REST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION FORCING THE LOW OVER THE              
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SOUTHEAST INTO TEXAS. WITH THE RIDGE EXPANDING              
OVER THE AREA...THE WINDS AND WIND CHILL HAVE DECREASED BELOW                   
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THUS WILL ALLOW ALL THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY TO               
EXPIRE. THE LAKE-850MB DELTA-T`S WILL CONTINUE TO BE AROUND 23C                 
WHICH WILL PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS                  
VERFIED BY SATELLITE AND KMQT-88D. SURFACE REPORTS FOR OUR SNOW                 
NETWORK INDICATE SNOWFALL 4 INCHES OR LESS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA IN            
A 24 HOUR PERIOD. THUS WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES THE SNOW WILL BE              
VERY FINE AND WHICH WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATION. PLAN TO UPDATE THE ZFP             
FOR WORDING AND TO DROP THE MENTION OF WIND CHILL FOR THE REST OF               
TODAY.                                                                          
.TONIGHT...AND LATER                                                            
WITH NE FLOW DOMINATING AND HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD KEEPING DRY AIR              
IN PLACE A BIT LONGER...HAVE DECREASED THE APPROACHING MID TO HIGH              
CLOUDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  THE LOW...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER            
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTERN              
ARKANSAS BY 12Z TUESDAY...BEFORE MOVING TO THE APPALACHIANS BY                  
WEDNESDAY MORNING.  MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL TO OUR                  
SOUTH...SO HAVE LIMITED POPS IN FOR THIS SYSTEM MAINLY SOUTH THROUGH            
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  ANOTHER LOW TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL MOVE TO                   
WESTERN HUDSON BAY TRAILING A COLD FRONT THOUGH CENTRAL                         
MANITOBA...AND FINALLY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR BY 06Z WEDNESDAY.  ONCE               
AGAIN...ONLY LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS ARE FIGURED AND MAINLY ACROSS THE               
NORTHERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN.                                                
THE NEXT SYSTEM WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT                         
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW IN GENERAL WILL               
COME IN FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE ITS INFLUENCE THROUGH             
THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.  THE 00Z GFS HAS TRANSFORMED SLIGHTLY WITH             
THIS SYSTEM.  THE SURFACE LOW THAT WAS OVER NW LAKE HURON AT 18Z                
FRIDAY OFF OF THE 18Z GFS...IS NOW ABOUT 20 MILES NW OF THAT                    
LOCATION AT 06Z FRIDAY.  ALL IN ALL...THE LATEST 00Z RUN OF THE GFS             
IS QUICKER AND SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK OF THE              
SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE END OF THE             
WORKWEEK.  WHAT THIS MAY MEAN FOR UPPER MICHIGAN IS NORTHWESTERLY               
WINDS HOLDING ON A BIT LONGER...OR FROM FRIDAY MORNING TO 06Z-12Z               
SATURDAY.  THE 00Z NAM WAS ALSO A BIT FASTER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN.             
OVERALL...THE GFS HAS TRENDED MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE                          
ECMWF...ALTHOUGH A LITTLE NORTH WITH ITS TRACK OF THE 500MB LOW.                
WITH HEDGE THE FORECAST MORE IN LINE WITH THE LATEST 00Z GFS                    
SOLUTION.                                                                       
DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE POP FORECAST AFTER 06Z                          
THURSDAY...DUE TO THE VARIABILITY IN THE FORECAST MODELS.                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
CONDITIONS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO IMPROVE AT CMX. ALTHOUGH VSBYS               
ARE STILL IFR...CIGS ARE NOW MVFR. AM THINKING THAT THE REDUCED                 
VSBYS IS MAINLY DUE TO THE FINE NATURE OF THE SNOW AND IN REALITY               
NOT MUCH IS ACCUMULATING. WILL CONTINUE WITH IMPROVEMENT TODAY AT               
CMX...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE WIND TURNS NORTHERLY. AT               
SAW...MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. IN                   
FACT...AS THE WINDS TURN MORE NORTHERLY...SOME OF THE LAKE EFFECT               
BANDS MAY MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS EASTERN MARQUETTE COUNTY BY AFTERNOON.            
HOWEVER...AT THE SAME TIME THE INVERSION WILL BE CRASHING SO THE                
SNOW SHOULD ONLY REDUCE VSBYS TO 3-5SM AT TIMES. ALL SITES SHOULD               
BECOME VFR THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD.                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD RAPIDLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT                
LAKES TODAY. WILL DROP ALL GALE WARNINGS WITH THIS ISSUANCE. WILL               
NEED TO KEEP HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY THIS MORNING BUT THAT SHOULD                  
DIMINISH AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WINDS ACROSS LAKE                    
SUPERIOR WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE TODAY TO LESS THAN 10 KT BY EVENING               
WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD. WILL LIKELY HAVE A LAND BREEZE TO CONTEND               
WITH TONIGHT WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD AND COLD TEMPS ACROSS INLAND                
AREAS. THE HIGH QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE LAKES ON TUESDAY...GIVING            
WAY TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TUE AFTN/NIGHT. THE               
NAM AND GFS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO FRONTAL POSITION BY             
WED EVENING...WITH THE GFS TAKING THE FRONT THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR               
WHILE THE NAM HOLDS THE FRONT UP JUST NORTH OF THE LAKE. AT THIS                
TIME THE GFS IS PREFERRED GIVEN IT/S AGREEMENT IN THE ECMWF. WILL               
KEEP WINDS 15-25 KT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT IT COULD APPROACH            
30 KT WED AFTN. ANOTHER LOW MOVES ALONG THE FRONT AND INTO THE                  
WESTERN LAKES BY THU MORNING. NUMEROUS MODEL DIFFERENCES...AND                  
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK 30KT WIND IS POSSIBLE THU.                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                                
LAKE SUPERIOR...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS                
     AFTERNOON FOR LSZ162-263>267.                                              
LAKE MICHIGAN...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS                
     AFTERNOON FOR LMZ248-250.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION (TODAY)...DLG                                                        
DISCUSSION (TONIGHT AND LATER)...KF                                             
AVIATION...MRD                                                                  
MARINE...MRD                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1015 PM CST MON FEB 11 2008                                                     
.UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL                
NEBRASKA...WITH ANOTHER WAVE RIDING ON ITS HEELS OVER SOUTHWESTERN              
SOUTH DAKOTA. RUC/NAM/GFS MODELS PROG THESE TWO WAVES TO MERGE                  
THIS EVENING...AND TRACK ACROSS IOWA AND MISSOURI. THE MAIN                     
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SLIDES ALONG/SOUTH OF THE MN/IA BORDER THIS               
EVENING...AND THEN LIFTS ACROSS SERN MN OVERNIGHT AND EARLY                     
TUESDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE A TIGHT SNOWFALL GRADIENT...WITH THE                
HIGHEST AMOUNTS /1 TO 2 INCHES/ STILL APPEARING POSSIBLE ALONG/SOUTH            
OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. NOT ENOUGH TO LEAVE THE SNOW ADVISORY            
IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...SO HAVE CANCELLED THE ENTIRE                
ADVISORY. DRIER EASTERLY AIRFLOW IN THE MID LEVEL AHEAD OF THE SHORT            
WAVE HAS LIMITED THE POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL OVER THE FAR            
SOUTH TONIGHT.                                                                  
SNOW WILL COME TO AN END ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN BY TUESDAY                         
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW                        
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING BETWEEN 10 AND 20 DEGREES BELOW                     
NORMAL.                                                                         
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS STILL ON TRACK TO DIVE FROM SOUTHERN                    
CANADA ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ASSOCIATED                   
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES FROM THE DAKOTAS ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. PREFER                
THE GFS/ECMWF OVER THE NAM FOR THIS SYSTEM...SO HAVE INCREASED                  
POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ON                  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE               
THE POTENTIAL TO BRING AT LEAST ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL /3 TO 6              
INCHES/ TO AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE CWA.                                       
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PLUNGE INTO THE UPPER               
MIDWEST ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...DURING WHICH 20 POPS HAVE              
BEEN MAINTAINED. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE INTO THE                 
20S FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION... /06Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                 
VFR CIGS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO              
HOLD SNOW AT BAY...WITH THE MAIN SHOW ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MN.  SOME             
FLURRY ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL MN...AND MAY YET GENERATE A              
FLURRY AT MSP BEFORE SYSTEM/TROF MOVES THROUGH.  WILL MAINTAIN VFR              
AT ALL BUT AXN/RWF DURING THE NIGHT.  THE BEST SHOT OF SNOW/MVFR                
CIG/VSBY COMING AT RWF BEFORE 12Z TUE.  MAY SEE SOME BREAKS                     
DEVELOPING IN CLOUD COVER PER 00Z NAM GUIDANCE BEFORE NEXT                      
DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.  THIS WILL                 
LIKELY LIFT SOME MVFR CIGS NORTH ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MN             
LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.  WILL HOLD ONTO             
MENTION OF MFVR CIGS DEVELOPING FARTHER EAST AFTER 02Z WED PER                  
GUIDANCE.  21Z SREF WAS INDICATING INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF CIGS             
< 3K FT DEVELOPING TUE NIGHT AS WELL.                                           
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
707 PM CST MON FEB 11 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL                
NEBRASKA...WITH ANOTHER WAVE RIDING ON ITS HEELS OVER SOUTHWESTERN              
SOUTH DAKOTA. RUC/NAM/GFS MODELS PROG THESE TWO WAVES TO MERGE                  
THIS EVENING...AND TRACK ACROSS IOWA AND MISSOURI. THE MAIN                     
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SLIDES ALONG/SOUTH OF THE MN/IA BORDER THIS               
EVENING...AND THEN LIFTS ACROSS SERN MN OVERNIGHT AND EARLY                     
TUESDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE A TIGHT SNOWFALL GRADIENT...WITH THE                
HIGHEST AMOUNTS /1 TO 2 INCHES/ STILL APPEARING POSSIBLE ALONG/SOUTH            
OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. NOT ENOUGH TO LEAVE THE SNOW ADVISORY            
IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...SO HAVE CANCELLED THE ENTIRE                
ADVISORY. DRIER EASTERLY AIRFLOW IN THE MID LEVEL AHEAD OF THE SHORT            
WAVE HAS LIMITED THE POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL OVER THE FAR            
SOUTH TONIGHT.                                                                  
SNOW WILL COME TO AN END ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN BY TUESDAY                         
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW                        
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING BETWEEN 10 AND 20 DEGREES BELOW                     
NORMAL.                                                                         
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS STILL ON TRACK TO DIVE FROM SOUTHERN                    
CANADA ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ASSOCIATED                   
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES FROM THE DAKOTAS ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. PREFER                
THE GFS/ECMWF OVER THE NAM FOR THIS SYSTEM...SO HAVE INCREASED                  
POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ON                  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE               
THE POTENTIAL TO BRING AT LEAST ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL /3 TO 6              
INCHES/ TO AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE CWA.                                       
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PLUNGE INTO THE UPPER               
MIDWEST ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...DURING WHICH 20 POPS HAVE              
BEEN MAINTAINED. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE INTO THE                 
20S FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION... /00Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                 
VFR CIGS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE REGION.  NOT MUCH IN              
THE WAY OF WEATHER EXPECTED OVER EC MN AND WC WI AS DRY SURFACE HIGH            
SHOULD MAINTAIN FIRM GRIP HERE.  DID MENTION SOME MVFR CIG/VSBY                 
THROUGH ABOUT 07Z AT MSP. MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD TRAVEL SOUTH            
ACROSS NE/IA REGION DURING THE NIGHT WITH THE BEST FORCING FOR SNOW             
FOUND HERE.  TROUGH AXIS IN EASTERN DAKOTAS GENERATING SNOW OVER                
NORTHWEST/INTO WC MN AT THIS TIME AND WILL LIKELY AFFECT AXN/STC                
REGION THROUGH ABOUT 06Z...SO MENTION SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS HERE.                
OTHERWISE...HIT RWF HARDEST WITH IFR CIG/SNOW DEVELOPING THIS                   
EVENING...MOVING OUT LATER TONIGHT.  IF SHORT WAVE DOES NOT PROVIDE             
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND IT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...COULD MAINTAIN SOME             
MVFR CIGS OVER REGION AS FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF NEXT                   
WEATHER SYSTEM.  OPTED TO FOLLOW GUIDANCE ON THIS END FOR NOW.                  
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                            
744 PM CST TUE FEB 12 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
JUST SENT OUT AN UPDATE TO FINE TUNE CLEARING TREND...AND TO LWR                
TEMPS AS SVRL LOCATIONS WERE ALREADY CLOSE TO THEIR OVERNIGHT MIN.              
USED 2M RUC TEMPS AS FIRST GUESS FOR TEMPS RMNDR OF TNGT...WITH A               
FEW TWEEKS HERE AND THERE. THIS MAY NOT EVEN BE COLD ENOUGH...BUT               
WILL WATCH TEMPS FOR THE NXT FEW HRS TO SEE IF ADDITIONAL                       
ADJUSTMENTS ARE NECESSARY.                                                      
TRUETT                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SFC LOW HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST INTO OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. STILL HAVE               
SOME LINGERING FLURRIES OVER AREA AND TEMPS HAVE ONLY RISEN INTO THE            
MID TEENS TO LOW 20S. MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE                
CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS. NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE AREA                
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.                                                      
FOR TONIGHT...CLOUDS TO SLOWLY BREAK UP FROM WEST TO EAST WITH SOME             
LINGERING FLURRIES FOR A FEW HOURS OVER FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF CWA             
THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AND BACK TO THE              
WEST AND SOUTHWEST BY DAYBREAK. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO              
THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTH TO LOW TO MID TEENS IN THE SOUTH HALF            
OF CWA.                                                                         
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL SEE A SLOW WARMING TREND AS RIDGE               
MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST...ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN ONCE                 
AGAIN. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER                     
30S...LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE              
40S.                                                                            
WILL SEE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON                    
THURSDAY WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN MO BY               
THURSDAY MORNING AND INTO THE ST. LOUIS AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. PCPN            
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE POST FRONTAL WITH A WIDE VARIETY OF PCPN               
TYPES. NORTHERN THIRD OF CWA WILL JUST SEE SNOW...WITH A MIX OF RAIN            
AND SNOW BRIEFLY ALONG I-70 CORRIDOR AND RAIN SOUTH...EARLY THURSDAY            
EVENING. COLDER AIR TO MAKE ITS WAY IN...BUT ICE CRYSTALS WILL BE               
LIMITED...SO COULD SEE SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE MIXED WITH SOME              
SLEET OVER SOUTH HALF OF CWA FOR THE REST OF THURSDAY NIGHT.                    
ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. ON FRIDAY...PCPN TO CHANGE             
OVER TO ALL SNOW EVERYWHERE WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.            
MAIN CONCERN AFTER THAT IS TIMING AND TRACK OF NEXT STORM SYSTEM.               
MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THIS SYSTEM...KEEPING IT OVER THE                       
SOUTHWESTERN US LONGER AND WHEN THEY DO LIFT IT OUT LATE SAT THROUGH            
SUNDAY...IT TRACKS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. SO JUST KEPT                  
SILENT 20 POPS IN FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.              
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT ON THIS SYSTEM IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS.               
OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.                      
BYRD                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS CLEARING OF MVFR CIGS                 
OUT OF THE TAF SITES. FAR BACKEDGE OF THIS CLOUD PUSHING THRU THE               
KUIN-KCOU AXIS NOW...BUT THIS IS THE MAIN STRATIFORM PORTION OF                 
THE CLOUD DECK...WITH AREAS JUST TO THE W HAVING BECOME MORE                    
CUMULIFORM AND STRIATED THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THAT...WILL KEEP                  
CLOUDS IN TIL 02Z FOR KUIN AND KCOU...AND IN TIL 06Z FOR KSTL/KSUS              
BEFORE FINALLY CLEARING OUT. DID CONSIDER FOG TONIGHT...BUT                     
SLEET/SNOW DEPTH NOT MUCH AT ALL AT THE TAF SITES...AND WINDS                   
STAYING UP THRU THE NIGHT SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS EASILY ATTAINING                 
DEWPOINT VALUES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. OTHERWISE...HI PRES                  
RIDGE WILL MOVE THRU ON WEDNESDAY SWITCHING SFC WNDS AROUND TO THE              
S BY DAYS END.                                                                  
TES                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WFO LSX                                                                         
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
1144 PM CST MON FEB 11 2008                                                     
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...                                                        
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ROUND TWO OF OUR SIGNIFICANT ICE STORM IS NOW UNDERWAY.                         
AT THE SURFACE...INVERTED TROUGH SIGNATURE EXTENDS FROM                         
FAYETTEVILLE ARKANSAS TO JUST SOUTH OF VICHY. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE                
IN THE 285-295K LAYER REMAINS QUITE STOUT COINCIDENT AND TO THE                 
SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE. AS A RESULT...THERE IS A SHARP CUTOFF TO                 
THE PRECIPITATION JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR.                   
ALOFT...STRONG MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO PLOW SOUTHEASTWARD            
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. ELONGATED AREA OF VORTICITY AT 700MB                 
LINES UP WELL THE BACK EDGE OF PRECIP. A 40 KT...AND                            
STRENGTHENING...LOW LEVEL JET HAS BEEN OBSERVED VIA PROFILERS...                
THE 00Z KSGF RAOB AND RUC INITIALIZATIONS JUST OUT AHEAD OF THE                 
RIBBON OF 700MB VORTICITY AND THE INVERTED TROUGH AT THE SURFACE.               
THE INCREASE IN WAA ALOFT HAS RESULTED IN RAPIDLY EXPANDING ECHOES              
ON THE LATEST WSR 88D IMAGERY.                                                  
FOR THE EVENING HOURS...AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE                        
INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR WILL CONTINUE TO SEE AN INCREASE IN                      
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. THIS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF                      
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET 4500FT WARM LAYER ALOFT VIA THE 00Z KSGF                
SOUNDING. HEAVIER SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIKELY AS 100 J/KG                
OF MUCAPE IS TAPPED.                                                            
A SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD SHIFT TO THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS EXPECTED              
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. IT APPEARS THAT AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST              
OF A LINE FROM SALEM TO BRANSON WILL SEE PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN               
AND SLEET AND HAVE EXTENDED THE WARNING THROUGH THE REST OF                     
TONIGHT. WILL ALLOW THE WARNING IN AREAS JUST NORTHWEST OF THE                  
INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR TO EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT...MAYBE CANCELING                  
EARLY BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.                                                    
SUBSTANTIAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE ON TAP FOR SOUTH CENTRAL                      
MISSOURI. HAVE INCREASED EXPECTED AMOUNTS UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF               
AN INCH. HOWEVER...GIVEN CONVECTION...SCATTERED AMOUNTS UP TO ONE               
AND ONE HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS FROM SALEM TO SPARTA               
TO CASSVILLE AND POINTS SOUTHEASTWARD. AREAS JUST TO THE NORTHWEST              
OF THIS LIN...ALONG THE I44 CORRIDOR...WILL RECEIVE ANOTHER ONE                 
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF ICE. ONCE AGAIN...AFFECTS OF                        
CONVECTION WILL LEND TO AMOUNTS LOCALLY REACHING ONE INCH. THIS IS              
ALL ON TOP OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT HAVE ALREADY TOPPED ONE INCH               
IN A FEW AREAS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 60 CORRIDOR.                                   
THE COMBINATION OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS AND WINDS INCREASING TO                    
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 MPH WILL RESULT IN POWER OUTAGES TONIGHT.                     
GAGAN                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 0600 UTC KSGF/KJLN TAFS...EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE               
THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING. A SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS INTO            
THE MVFR CAT IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE              
AREA LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FREEZING                
DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY AT KSGF OVERNIGHT...AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS                
FOR THAT AND ITS IMPACT ON VISIBILITY. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO              
SCATTER OUT OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS/EXTREME WESTERN MO BY EARLY                   
EVENING. DSA                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR MOZ070-071-                
     081>083-090>098-101>106.                                                   
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MOZ057-058-            
     069-079-080-088-089.                                                       
KS...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR KSZ101.                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
724 PM CST MON FEB 11 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ROUND TWO OF OUR SIGNIFICANT ICE STORM IS NOW UNDERWAY.                         
AT THE SURFACE...INVERTED TROUGH SIGNATURE EXTENDS FROM                         
FAYETTEVILLE ARKANSAS TO JUST SOUTH OF VICHY. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE                
IN THE 285-295K LAYER REMAINS QUITE STOUT COINCIDENT AND TO THE                 
SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE. AS A RESULT...THERE IS A SHARP CUTOFF TO                 
THE PRECIPITATION JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR.                   
ALOFT...STRONG MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO PLOW SOUTHEASTWARD            
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. ELONGATED AREA OF VORTICITY AT 700MB                 
LINES UP WELL THE BACK EDGE OF PRECIP. A 40 KT...AND                            
STRENGTHENING...LOW LEVEL JET HAS BEEN OBSERVED VIA PROFILERS...                
THE 00Z KSGF RAOB AND RUC INITIALIZATIONS JUST OUT AHEAD OF THE                 
RIBBON OF 700MB VORTICITY AND THE INVERTED TROUGH AT THE SURFACE.               
THE INCREASE IN WAA ALOFT HAS RESULTED IN RAPIDLY EXPANDING ECHOES              
ON THE LATEST WSR 88D IMAGERY.                                                  
FOR THE EVENING HOURS...AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE                        
INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR WILL CONTINUE TO SEE AN INCREASE IN                      
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. THIS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF                      
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET 4500FT WARM LAYER ALOFT VIA THE 00Z KSGF                
SOUNDING. HEAVIER SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIKELY AS 100 J/KG                
OF MUCAPE IS TAPPED.                                                            
A SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD SHIFT TO THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS EXPECTED              
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. IT APPEARS THAT AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST              
OF A LINE FROM SALEM TO BRANSON WILL SEE PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN               
AND SLEET AND HAVE EXTENDED THE WARNING THROUGH THE REST OF                     
TONIGHT. WILL ALLOW THE WARNING IN AREAS JUST NORTHWEST OF THE                  
INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR TO EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT...MAYBE CANCELING                  
EARLY BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.                                                    
SUBSTANTIAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE ON TAP FOR SOUTH CENTRAL                      
MISSOURI. HAVE INCREASED EXPECTED AMOUNTS UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF               
AN INCH. HOWEVER...GIVEN CONVECTION...SCATTERED AMOUNTS UP TO ONE               
AND ONE HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS FROM SALEM TO SPARTA               
TO CASSVILLE AND POINTS SOUTHEASTWARD. AREAS JUST TO THE NORTHWEST              
OF THIS LIN...ALONG THE I44 CORRIDOR...WILL RECEIVE ANOTHER ONE                 
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF ICE. ONCE AGAIN...AFFECTS OF                        
CONVECTION WILL LEND TO AMOUNTS LOCALLY REACHING ONE INCH. THIS IS              
ALL ON TOP OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT HAVE ALREADY TOPPED ONE INCH               
IN A FEW AREAS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 60 CORRIDOR.                                   
THE COMBINATION OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS AND WINDS INCREASING TO                    
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 MPH WILL RESULT IN POWER OUTAGES TONIGHT.                     
GAGAN                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE...FZRA AND AND FZDZ ARE EXPECTED TO                     
CONTINUE AT BOTH KJLN AND KSGF THROUGH 09Z WITH LIFR CEILINGS.                  
WHILE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS...PREDOMINATELY IFR CEILINGS ARE                   
EXPECTED AT KJLN FROM 11Z TO 18Z AND KSGF FROM 11Z TO 20Z.                      
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH                
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE OZARKS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED              
AROUND 22Z.                                                                     
ANGLE                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 556 PM CST MON FEB 11 2008/                                             
..WINTER STORM CONTINUES...                                                     
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)...                                                         
VERY COMPLICATED FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS AS MESOSCALE              
PROCESSES AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET                
ACROSS MAINLY EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSOURI.                                        
MORNING FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WERE QUITE                 
SIGNIFICANT AS INSTABILITY ALOFT COMBINED WITH BELOW FREEZING                   
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE TO CREATE AREAS OF CONVECTION AND                 
LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS WERE                  
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 60 CORRIDOR FROM JOPLIN TO MONETT...SPRINGFIELD               
AND SEYMOUR. LOCALLY ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATED ON                 
TREES AND POWER LINES. FURTHER EAST MORE SLEET FELL AND AREAS TO                
THE NORTH OF I-44 HAD A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.                     
REGIONAL RADAR HAS BEEN SHOWING SOME RETURNS IN NORTHEASTERN                    
OKLAHOMA WHICH MAY BE INFLUENCED BY MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS OR                  
AN INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE LIFT WITH THE NEXT WAVE MOVING                       
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. SOME MESOSCALE INFLUENCES                 
INDICATE MORE OF THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESIDE IN EXTREME SOUTHERN              
MISSOURI...AND MAINLY AFFECT COMMUNITIES EAST OF CASSVILLE AND                  
BRANSON.                                                                        
SINCE THE REGION HAS ALREADY HAD A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF                        
ICE ACCUMULATIONS...AND BOTH THE WRF/GFS HAVE SOME MINOR                        
DIFFERENCE ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR...HAVE OPTED TO ERROR ON THE                 
WETTER AND MORE CRITICAL SCENARIO WITH ANOTHER AROUND OF ONE                    
QUARTER...TO LOCALLY THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN                 
AND SLEET FOR AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 60 AND EAST               
OF HIGHWAY 71. THE MOST CRITICAL TIME FOR THE HEAVIEST                          
PRECIPITATION WILL BE BETWEEN 6 PM AND MIDNIGHT.                                
ANOTHER PROBLEM DEALS WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS THE FREEZING                 
MARK IS HOLDING NEAR THE MISSOURI-ARKANSAS BORDER. SHORT TERM                   
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE MISSOURI-ARKANSAS                
BORDER RISING TO ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE EVENING HOURS...HOWEVER              
SINCE TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT RISEN TOO MUCH SINCE NOON...AND THE                 
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS...BELIEVE ANY TEMPERATURES THAT                  
AREA ABOVE FREEZING WILL LIKELY HOLD OR FALL A COUPLE OF DEGREES.               
THERE IS ANOTHER SCENARIO IF A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS AND ALLOWS                 
FOR TEMPERATURES TO SURGE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE BORDER. THE LATER                
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO DETERMINE THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND              
IF TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE               
MAIN UPPER WAVE SHOULD BE ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR WITH MOST OF THE              
PRECIPITATION EXITING THE REGION BY SUNRISE.                                    
JLT                                                                             
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...                                           
COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY MORNING               
WITH WINTER PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL                     
MISSOURI. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE                     
OZARKS TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE UNDERCUT MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS                  
AND LOWS DUE TO ICE ACCUMULATION AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING                   
SETUP. FOG POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO               
WEDNESDAY MORNING.                                                              
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST AND LEESIDE TROUGH                         
DEVELOPS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION.                
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING WEDNESDAY                 
AND THURSDAY AS GULF MOISTURE SURGES NORTH.                                     
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE OZARKS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH                
CHANCES FOR RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WINTER PRECIPITATION                    
AGAIN POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT. WINTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES                   
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT                 
SIMILAR SOLUTIONS OF A DEEPENING CUTOFF LOW DIGGING INTO THE                    
BOOT HEEL OF TEXAS. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND              
UPON THE TRACK OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE                   
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE                  
THE MISSOURI OZARKS WILL BE DEALING WITH MORE WINTER WEATHER OVER               
THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST WILL BE FINED TUNED FURTHER WITH FUTURE               
MODEL RUNS.                                                                     
ANGLE                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR MOZ070-071-                
     081>083-090>098-101>106.                                                   
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MOZ057-058-            
     068-069-077>080-088-089.                                                   
KS...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR KSZ097-101.            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT                                         
1156 AM MST MON FEB 11 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
QUICK UPDATE DONE TO REFLECT TRENDS IN CURRENT TEMPS AND CLOUD                  
COVERAGE. TEMPERATURES AT MANY LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE                  
PLAINS...HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY IN RESPONSE TO GOOD DOWNSLOPING               
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS...AND HIGH TEMPS TODAY WERE                    
INCREASED AROUND CENTRAL MONTANA. CLOUD COVERAGE WAS ALSO REDUCED               
IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. COHEN                                                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 1040 AM MST MON FEB 11 2008)                        
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION CONTINUES              
DIVING SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION...WITH BEST SYNOPTIC ASCENT AND                  
DEEP MOISTURE NOW OVER THE DAKOTAS. AREA OF WEAK INSTABILITY ON                 
THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH HAS BEEN MAINTAINING SCATTERED SNOW                 
SHOWERS OVER EASTERN CWA...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF                     
THROUGH THE DAY AS MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES DUE TO                
BUILDING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY              
IS BEING CANCELLED WITH THE ISSUANCE OF THE MORNING UPDATE                      
PACKAGE...WITH RUC GUIDANCE SHOWS ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL                       
ACCUMULATIONS VERY LIGHT AND RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTHWEST                        
MOUNTAINS...ALONG WITH DIMINISHING SURFACE WINDS TO UNDER 10 KTS                
PRECLUDING BLOWING SNOW THREAT. OTHERWISE...SUBSIDENCE DOWNSTREAM               
OF BUILDING RIDGE WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WARM AGAIN TODAY...AS                  
SURFACE LEE TROUGHING OCCURS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA AND               
SURFACE WINDS BACK TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER                
THE PLAINS WERE INCREASED A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ALSO...WIND                
AND CLOUD COVERAGE WERE TWEAKED A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT                    
CONDITIONS. MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER FAR NORTHEAST CWA IS                   
EXPECTED TO RETREAT NORTHEAST OF HAVRE TODAY...AS LEE TROUGHING                 
AFFECTS THE REGION...WITH SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE EASTERN               
TWO THIRDS OF MONTANA.                                                          
LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...NEXT MAJOR CONCERN WILL BE SYSTEM MOVING                
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MID-WEEK...WITH STRONG WINDS AND SNOW                
BOTH POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. HIGHLIGHTS MAY BECOME                 
NECESSARY BY THIS AFTERNOON. COHEN                                              
PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 435 AM MST MON FEB 11 2008)                          
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE REMNANTS OF AN UPPER LEVEL STORM                  
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PLAINS              
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ALSO...THE REMAINING ARCTIC AIR              
WILL LIKELY STAY IN PLACE OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE               
FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE...WEST AND                  
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL ALLOW                 
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN QUITE MILD THROUGH TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL               
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REACH THE REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH                  
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS BETWEEN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY                    
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL                    
AFFECT THE AREA BY TUESDAY EVENING...WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW                       
POTENTIAL FOR BOTH THE PLAINS AND MOUNTAIN RANGES. FOR                          
WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW                    
ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE                  
CENTER TRACKING OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY               
ALLOW SOME COLDER AIR FROM ALBERTA TO SEEP BACK INTO THE HILINE                 
REGION...HOWEVER THE COLD AIR DOES NOT APPEAR TO SPREAD THROUGH                 
THE ENTIRE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS. UNSTABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT                 
THE MIDLEVELS DURING WEDNESDAY DOES FAVOR DECENT SNOW                           
ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...HOWEVER                 
THE MAIN FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM APPEARS TO MOVE              
VERY QUICKLY. CONSEQUENTLY...NO WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE                   
PLANNED AT THIS TIME. ZUMPFE                                                    
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH                 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITING THE REGION. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER              
OVER MUCH OF MY CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY                
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO WESTERN MONTANA ON THURSDAY.                
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MY FORECAST AREA                     
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE PLAINS                  
WHILE THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW.              
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH THE UPPER                   
RIDGE NOSING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE WEEK.                
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH               
THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. PATTERN LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR A                   
SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS AND AN INCREASED CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SNOW               
SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.                             
HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT SHOWING A VERY PRONOUNCED COOL                  
DOWN. EASTERN PORTIONS OF MY CWA ARE MOST LIKELY TO SEE COOLER                  
TEMPERATURES...BUT EVEN HERE THE COOLER AIR WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS              
THE AIRMASS SLIDES EAST BY SUNDAY. MPJ                                          
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN BASIC AGREEMENT DURING THIS               
PERIOD...WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE             
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. I LEANED TOWARD            
THE GFS SOLUTION OF A LOWER AMPLITUDE RIDGE THAT IS MORE PROGRESSIVE            
THAN THE ECMWF. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA               
EARLY SUNDAY. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EAST SUNDAY                
MORNING...OTHERWISE MOST AREAS ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DRY.             
HOWEVER...THERE IS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT            
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL...WESTERN AND                      
SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS. GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE            
FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT PLAINS. TEMPERATURES COOL               
SEVERAL DEGREES SUNDAY BEFORE RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES               
MONDAY.  EK                                                                     
AVIATION...                                                                     
UPDATED 1740Z.                                                                  
MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO                  
DECREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BEGINS TO BUILD OVER WESTERN                    
MONTANA. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF KHVR WHERE            
THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PERSISTS. MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW                  
CEILINGS AND LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE KHVR AREA UNTIL 22Z.               
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
GTF  43  25  44  24 /  10   0  20  30                                           
CTB  42  23  39  20 /  10  10  10  30                                           
HLN  43  24  40  22 /  20  20  30  40                                           
BZN  42  20  39  21 /  40  20  30  50                                           
WEY  34  12  31  16 /  50  50  40  80                                           
DLN  41  22  41  20 /  20  10  20  60                                           
HVR  26  14  37  17 /  30   0  20  30                                           
LWT  42  21  40  22 /  30   0  20  30                                           
&&                                                                              
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...COHEN                                                                  
SHORT TERM...ZUMPFE                                                             
LONG TERM...MPJ/EK                                                              
AVIATION...EMANUEL                                                              
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS                                                          
</pre> mt                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT                                         
1040 AM MST MON FEB 11 2008                                                     
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION                                                        
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION CONTINUES              
DIVING SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION...WITH BEST SYNOPTIC ASCENT AND                  
DEEP MOISTURE NOW OVER THE DAKOTAS. AREA OF WEAK INSTABILITY ON                 
THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH HAS BEEN MAINTAINING SCATTERED SNOW                 
SHOWERS OVER EASTERN CWA...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF                     
THROUGH THE DAY AS MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES DUE TO BUILDING       
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY IS BEING              
CANCELLED WITH THE ISSUANCE OF THE MORNING UPDATE PACKAGE...WITH RUC            
GUIDANCE SHOWS ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS VERY LIGHT                 
AND RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...ALONG WITH DIMINISHING              
SURFACE WINDS TO UNDER 10 KTS PRECLUDING BLOWING SNOW THREAT.                   
OTHERWISE...SUBSIDENCE DOWNSTREAM OF BUILDING RIDGE WILL HELP                   
TEMPERATURES WARM AGAIN TODAY...AS SURFACE LEE TROUGHING OCCURS                 
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA AND SURFACE WINDS BACK TO THE                  
WEST SOUTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE PLAINS WERE INCREASED A              
BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ALSO...WIND AND CLOUD COVERAGE WERE                    
TWEAKED A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. MODIFIED ARCTIC                
AIRMASS OVER FAR NORTHEAST CWA IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT NORTHEAST OF              
HAVRE TODAY...AS LEE TROUGHING AFFECTS THE REGION...WITH SURFACE                
PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF MONTANA.                          
LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...NEXT MAJOR CONCERN WILL BE SYSTEM MOVING                
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MID-WEEK...WITH STRONG WINDS AND SNOW                
BOTH POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. HIGHLIGHTS MAY BECOME                 
NECESSARY BY THIS AFTERNOON. COHEN                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 435 AM MST MON FEB 11 2008)                         
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE REMNANTS OF AN UPPER LEVEL STORM                  
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PLAINS              
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ALSO...THE REMAINING ARCTIC AIR              
WILL LIKELY STAY IN PLACE OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE               
FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE...WEST AND                  
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL ALLOW                 
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN QUITE MILD THROUGH TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL               
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REACH THE REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH                  
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS BETWEEN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY                    
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL                    
AFFECT THE AREA BY TUESDAY EVENING...WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW                       
POTENTIAL FOR BOTH THE PLAINS AND MOUNTAIN RANGES. FOR                          
WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW                    
ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE                  
CENTER TRACKING OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY               
ALLOW SOME COLDER AIR FROM ALBERTA TO SEEP BACK INTO THE HILINE                 
REGION...HOWEVER THE COLD AIR DOES NOT APPEAR TO SPREAD THROUGH                 
THE ENTIRE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS. UNSTABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT                 
THE MIDLEVELS DURING WEDNESDAY DOES FAVOR DECENT SNOW                           
ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...HOWEVER                 
THE MAIN FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM APPEARS TO MOVE              
VERY QUICKLY. CONSEQUENTLY...NO WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE                   
PLANNED AT THIS TIME. ZUMPFE                                                    
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH                 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITING THE REGION. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER              
OVER MUCH OF MY CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY                
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO WESTERN MONTANA ON THURSDAY.                
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MY FORECAST AREA                     
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE PLAINS                  
WHILE THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW.              
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH THE UPPER                   
RIDGE NOSING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE WEEK.                
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH               
THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. PATTERN LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR A                   
SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS AND AN INCREASED CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SNOW               
SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.                             
HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT SHOWING A VERY PRONOUNCED COOL                  
DOWN. EASTERN PORTIONS OF MY CWA ARE MOST LIKELY TO SEE COOLER                  
TEMPERATURES...BUT EVEN HERE THE COOLER AIR WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS              
THE AIRMASS SLIDES EAST BY SUNDAY. MPJ                                          
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN BASIC AGREEMENT DURING THIS               
PERIOD...WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE             
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. I LEANED TOWARD            
THE GFS SOLUTION OF A LOWER AMPLITUDE RIDGE THAT IS MORE PROGRESSIVE            
THAN THE ECMWF. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA               
EARLY SUNDAY. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EAST SUNDAY                
MORNING...OTHERWISE MOST AREAS ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DRY.             
HOWEVER...THERE IS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT            
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL...WESTERN AND                      
SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS. GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE            
FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT PLAINS. TEMPERATURES COOL               
SEVERAL DEGREES SUNDAY BEFORE RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES               
MONDAY.  EK                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
UPDATED 1740Z.                                                                  
MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO                  
DECREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BEGINS TO BUILD OVER WESTERN                    
MONTANA. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF KHVR WHERE            
THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PERSISTS. MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW                  
CEILINGS AND LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE KHVR AREA UNTIL 22Z.               
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
GTF  39  25  44  24 /  10   0  10  30                                           
CTB  38  23  39  20 /  10  10  10  30                                           
HLN  42  24  40  22 /  20  20  20  40                                           
BZN  42  20  39  21 /  40  10  30  50                                           
WEY  30  12  31  16 /  50  30  30  60                                           
DLN  40  22  41  20 /  20  20  20  50                                           
HVR  28  14  37  17 /  30   0  10  30                                           
LWT  35  21  40  22 /  30   0  10  30                                           
&&                                                                              
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...COHEN                                                                  
SHORT TERM...ZUMPFE                                                             
LONG TERM...MPJ/EK                                                              
AVIATION...EMANUEL                                                              
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS                                                          
</pre> mt                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT                                         
920 AM MST MON FEB 11 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION CONTINUES              
DIVING SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION...WITH BEST SYNOPTIC ASCENT AND                  
DEEP MOISTURE NOW OVER THE DAKOTAS. AREA OF WEAK INSTABILITY ON                 
THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH HAS BEEN MAINTAINING SCATTERED SNOW                 
SHOWERS OVER EASTERN CWA...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF                     
THROUGH THE DAY AS MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES DUE TO BUILDING       
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY IS BEING              
CANCELLED WITH THE ISSUANCE OF THE MORNING UPDATE PACKAGE...WITH RUC            
GUIDANCE SHOWS ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS VERY LIGHT                 
AND RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...ALONG WITH DIMINISHING              
SURFACE WINDS TO UNDER 10 KTS PRECLUDING BLOWING SNOW THREAT.                   
OTHERWISE...SUBSIDENCE DOWNSTREAM OF BUILDING RIDGE WILL HELP                   
TEMPERATURES WARM AGAIN TODAY...AS SURFACE LEE TROUGHING OCCURS                 
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA AND SURFACE WINDS BACK TO THE                  
WEST SOUTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE PLAINS WERE INCREASED A              
BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ALSO...WIND AND CLOUD COVERAGE WERE                    
TWEAKED A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. MODIFIED ARCTIC                
AIRMASS OVER FAR NORTHEAST CWA IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT NORTHEAST OF              
HAVRE TODAY...AS LEE TROUGHING AFFECTS THE REGION...WITH SURFACE                
PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF MONTANA.                          
LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...NEXT MAJOR CONCERN WILL BE SYSTEM MOVING                
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MID-WEEK...WITH STRONG WINDS AND SNOW                
BOTH POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. HIGHLIGHTS MAY BECOME                 
NECESSARY BY THIS AFTERNOON. COHEN                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 435 AM MST MON FEB 11 2008)                         
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE REMNANTS OF AN UPPER LEVEL STORM                  
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PLAINS              
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ALSO...THE REMAINING ARCTIC AIR              
WILL LIKELY STAY IN PLACE OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE               
FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE...WEST AND                  
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL ALLOW                 
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN QUITE MILD THROUGH TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL               
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REACH THE REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH                  
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS BETWEEN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY                    
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL                    
AFFECT THE AREA BY TUESDAY EVENING...WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW                       
POTENTIAL FOR BOTH THE PLAINS AND MOUNTAIN RANGES. FOR                          
WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW                    
ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE                  
CENTER TRACKING OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY               
ALLOW SOME COLDER AIR FROM ALBERTA TO SEEP BACK INTO THE HILINE                 
REGION...HOWEVER THE COLD AIR DOES NOT APPEAR TO SPREAD THROUGH                 
THE ENTIRE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS. UNSTABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT                 
THE MIDLEVELS DURING WEDNESDAY DOES FAVOR DECENT SNOW                           
ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...HOWEVER                 
THE MAIN FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM APPEARS TO MOVE              
VERY QUICKLY. CONSEQUENTLY...NO WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE                   
PLANNED AT THIS TIME. ZUMPFE                                                    
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH                 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITING THE REGION. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER              
OVER MUCH OF MY CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY                
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO WESTERN MONTANA ON THURSDAY.                
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MY FORECAST AREA                     
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE PLAINS                  
WHILE THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW.              
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH THE UPPER                   
RIDGE NOSING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE WEEK.                
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH               
THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. PATTERN LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR A                   
SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS AND AN INCREASED CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SNOW               
SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.                             
HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT SHOWING A VERY PRONOUNCED COOL                  
DOWN. EASTERN PORTIONS OF MY CWA ARE MOST LIKELY TO SEE COOLER                  
TEMPERATURES...BUT EVEN HERE THE COOLER AIR WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS              
THE AIRMASS SLIDES EAST BY SUNDAY. MPJ                                          
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN BASIC AGREEMENT DURING THIS               
PERIOD...WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE             
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. I LEANED TOWARD            
THE GFS SOLUTION OF A LOWER AMPLITUDE RIDGE THAT IS MORE PROGRESSIVE            
THAN THE ECMWF. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA               
EARLY SUNDAY. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EAST SUNDAY                
MORNING...OTHERWISE MOST AREAS ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DRY.             
HOWEVER...THERE IS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT            
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL...WESTERN AND                      
SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS. GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE            
FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT PLAINS. TEMPERATURES COOL               
SEVERAL DEGREES SUNDAY BEFORE RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES               
MONDAY.  EK                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER MY FORECAST AREA TODAY            
AND TONIGHT. EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS IN BROKEN MID AND HIGH             
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS              
CAUSING AREAS MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. EXCEPTION IS EASTERN PLAINS             
WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND             
15Z AT KHVR AND KLWT FOR MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITION BEFORE               
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR. MPJ                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
GTF  39  25  44  24 /  10   0  10  30                                           
CTB  38  23  39  20 /  10  10  10  30                                           
HLN  42  24  40  22 /  20  20  20  40                                           
BZN  42  20  39  21 /  40  10  30  50                                           
WEY  30  12  31  16 /  50  30  30  60                                           
DLN  40  22  41  20 /  20  20  20  50                                           
HVR  28  14  37  17 /  30   0  10  30                                           
LWT  35  21  40  22 /  30   0  10  30                                           
&&                                                                              
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...COHEN                                                                  
SHORT TERM...ZUMPFE                                                             
LONG TERM...MPJ/EK                                                              
AVIATION...MPJ                                                                  
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS                                                          
</pre> mt                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
409 AM EST TUE FEB 12 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND                 
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVIER SNOW IS                    
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.                 
THE SNOW COULD MIX WITH SLEET ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS...AND MAY                   
CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST                       
PENNSYLVANIA AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL DEPART               
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THURSDAY.                  
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
UPDATED AT 1015 PM...APOLOGIZE FOR THE LATE ISSUANCE. LES                       
ADVISORY FOR NRN ONEIDA HAS BEEN CANCELLED. TWEEKED MINS DOWN A                 
TAD. MID SHIFT WILL MAKE DECISION CONCERNING WARNING/ADVISORY FOR               
TUES EVNT. PREV BLO...                                                          
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS CONTINUE ACRS ONEIDA CTY THIS AFTN AND HAVE                   
PUSHED NORTH OF ONONDAGA AND MADISON COUNTIES. ECHOES EXTEND INTO               
NWRN ONEIDA ONCE AGAIN AFTER MVG OUT FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY.               
BOTH THE 12Z/18Z NAM AND LATEST RUC GUIDANCE INTENSIFY BAND THRU                
ABOUT MIDNIGHT OVR ONEIDA CTY AND HAVE EXTENDED ADVISORY UNTIL 05Z              
AS ADDNL 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED. NAM BUFKIT PROFILES                
STILL INDICATE A LOWERING INVERSION BUT LIFT AND TRAJECTORY WILL                
CONTINUE FAVORABLE CONDS FOR BAND OF LAKE EFFECT FOR THIS EVENING.              
BAND IS SHIFTING NWRD PRESENTLY AS MODELS HAVE INDICATED AND THINK              
BAND WILL STAY MAINLY NORTH OF ONONDAGA AND MADISON COUNTIES THIS               
EVENING. CUD BE A BRIEF WAFFLE BACK IN FOR A TIME LATER BUT NOT                 
ENUF TO CAUSE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT SO HAVE OPTED TO ALLOW ADVISORY              
TO EXPIRE FOR THESE LOCATIONS AT 4PM.                                           
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BTWN 09Z-12Z AND EFFECTIVELY END LAKE               
BANDS. CUD SEE CLRNG FOR A TIME OVRNGT BFR CLD SHIELD SPREADS IN                
AHEAD OF NEXT STORM BY DAYBREAK. TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES                  
WARMER THAN THIS MRNG BUT SHUD DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. WITH                
CALM WINDS UNDER SFC RIDGE...WIND CHILLS WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM.                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...                             
DEVELOPING SFC LOW IN LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL EJECT NORTHEAST DRG               
THE DAY TUE INTO THE MID-MS AND OHIO VALLEYS. WARM ADVECTION PCPN               
SHUD BREAK ABOUT ACROSS WRN ZONES ARND 15Z AND OVERSPREAD PORTIONS              
OF CNY AND NEPA BY 18Z. INITIAL SNOW WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AS IT                 
DEVELOPS.                                                                       
LOW PROGGED TO MV INTO GREAT LKS REGION DRG THE AFTN WITH PCPN                  
AFFECTING ENTIRE FA BY 00Z WED. MVMNT OF SFC LOW THEN BCMS A                    
LITTLE MURKY AS NAM TRANSFERS MORE OF THE ENERGY TO THE COAST WITH              
A DEVELOPING SFC LOW. GFS FEATURES A MORE ELONGATED SFC LOW ACRS                
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY WED MRNG WITH INVERTED TROF AXIS                     
BISECTING FA. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES AND THE EFFECTS ON PTYPE AND                  
EXPECTED QPF...HAVE SIDED CLOSE TO HPC REGARDING QPF AMNTS AND                  
TRACK OF SFC FEATURES.                                                          
THERMAL PROFILES DIFFER MARKEDLY BTWN NAM AND GFS WITH GFS ONCE                 
AGAIN ON THE WARMER SIDE AS WE HAVE SEEN ALL WINTER. HV TRENDED                 
TOWARD MORE OF A COMPROMISE SOLN BTWN THE TWO. INITIAL PCPN COMES               
IN AS ALL SNOW ON TUE AFTN/EVNG BFR STARTING TO MIX. WITH WARM                  
LAYER NOSING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT...WILL LIKELY START TO SEE A MIX                 
OVR NEPA WITH SLEET AND SLOWLY TRANSITIONING OVER TO MORE OF A                  
FRZG RAIN TYPE SCENARIO. LATEST GFS WUD INDICATE WYOMING/                       
LACKAWANNA VALLEYS MAY CHG OVR TO ALL RAIN BUT THINK THE GFS MAY                
BE A LITTLE BIT OVERDONE WITH H8 TEMPS ARND +5C.                                
FURTHER NORTH...ENUF WARM AIR MAY WORK INTO TO MIX IN SLEET WITH                
THE SNOW ACRS THE TWIN TIERS AND POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH.               
LOOKS LIKE UP TOWARD MOHAWK VALLEY AND TUG HILL...PCPN SHUD STAY                
AT ALL SNOW...BUT AT THIS TIME THINK QPF WILL BE LIGHTER.                       
WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND AFTER COORD WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...            
HAVE OPTED TO LET WINTER STORM WATCH CONTINUE FOR NOW. SHUD SEE                 
ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL AND OR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PART OF THE              
CWA. OVERALL QUESTIONS RMN TO BE SEEN OF WHAT TYPE OF ADVISORY                  
CAN WE EXPECT...WILL ANY LOCATION BE CLOSE TO LOW-END WARNING                   
CRITERIA FOR SNOW AND/OR ICE AND CUD WE EVEN GET 7+ INCHES IN 12                
HRS TO MEET WARNING CRITERIA SNOWS. HEAVIEST SNOW LOOKS TO MV IN                
LATE TUE EVENING...LIGHTEN UP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ANOTHER HEAVIER               
BATCH TOWARD DAYBREAK (NOT TO MENTION THE MIX IN BETWEEN). WUD                  
RATHER SEE 00Z RUNS THIS EVENING TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON                      
PTYPE, TRACK OF SYSTEM, EXTENT AND STRENGTH OF WARM AIR, ETC. BFR               
BREAKING OUT AREAS FOR WARNINGS. CONFIDENCE IN WARNING CRITERIA AT              
THIS POINT IS BLO 50% FOR ANY ONE LOCATION.                                     
AFTER SYSTEM MVS EAST...EXPECT LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND              
ALTHO LAKE EFFECT LOOKS MINIMAL WITH H8 TEMPS ONLY DROPPING TO NR               
-10C. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MVS IN AGAIN THUR MORNING.                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                           
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH ON FRIDAY...BRINGING THE                
CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. BRIEF SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR BEHIND                
THIS SYSTEM TO START THE WEEKEND...WITH SOME LAKE-EFFECT SNOW                   
SHOWERS/FLURRIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE DRYING SETS IN                  
DURING SATURDAY.                                                                
THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM IS SLATED FOR SUNDAY AND                 
MONDAY. FROM THIS EARLY VANTAGE POINT...IT APPEARS THE SYSTEM                   
COULD HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF GULF AND/OR ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO WORK               
WITH...BUT PRECIPITATION TYPE THIS FAR OUT IS UNCERTAIN. THUS...WE              
INDICATED THE CHANCE FOR A WINTRY MIX.                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...                                
LINGERING MVFR POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT DAYBREAK AT                               
KSYR/KRME...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH MIDDAY. SNOW DEVELOPS THIS                    
AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...WITH MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS AREA-                
WIDE BY 21Z.                                                                    
FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...                                           
MIXED PRECIP AND IFR LIKELY AT MOST SITES LATE TONIGHT...WITH                   
MAINLY RAIN FORESEEN AT KAVP BY THIS TIME. WEDNESDAY                            
MORNING...MIXED PRECIP LINGERS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO RAIN/SNOW               
SHOWERS BY/DURING THE AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT                       
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT ALL SITES...WITH RME/SYR BEING THE LAST TO                
IMPROVE. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...               
BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH                    
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS. IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR                  
POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 AM EST                
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.                              
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 AM EST                
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ022>025-044>046-055>057-062.                              
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 AM EST                   
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-036-037.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...PVB                                                                  
NEAR TERM...PVB                                                                 
SHORT TERM...PVB                                                                
LONG TERM...MLJ                                                                 
AVIATION...MLJ                                                                  
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
641 PM EST MON FEB 11 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER ONEIDA COUNTY THIS EVENING                  
WITH SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED BEFORE WEAKENING LATE                 
TONIGHT. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW INTO CENTRAL              
NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVIER               
SNOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY                  
MORNING. THE SNOW COULD MIX WITH SLEET ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS...AND              
MAY CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST                   
PENNSYLVANIA AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL DEPART               
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THURSDAY.                  
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                                 
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS CONTINUE ACRS ONEIDA CTY THIS AFTN AND HAVE                   
PUSHED NORTH OF ONONDAGA AND MADISON COUNTIES. ECHOES EXTEND INTO               
NWRN ONEIDA ONCE AGAIN AFTER MVG OUT FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY.               
BOTH THE 12Z/18Z NAM AND LATEST RUC GUIDANCE INTENSIFY BAND THRU                
ABOUT MIDNIGHT OVR ONEIDA CTY AND HAVE EXTENDED ADVISORY UNTIL 05Z              
AS ADDNL 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED. NAM BUFKIT PROFILES                
STILL INDICATE A LOWERING INVERSION BUT LIFT AND TRAJECTORY WILL                
CONTINUE FAVORABLE CONDS FOR BAND OF LAKE EFFECT FOR THIS EVENING.              
BAND IS SHIFTING NWRD PRESENTLY AS MODELS HAVE INDICATED AND THINK              
BAND WILL STAY MAINLY NORTH OF ONONDAGA AND MADISON COUNTIES THIS               
EVENING. CUD BE A BRIEF WAFFLE BACK IN FOR A TIME LATER BUT NOT                 
ENUF TO CAUSE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT SO HAVE OPTED TO ALLOW ADVISORY              
TO EXPIRE FOR THESE LOCATIONS AT 4PM.                                           
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BTWN 09Z-12Z AND EFFECTIVELY END LAKE               
BANDS. CUD SEE CLRNG FOR A TIME OVRNGT BFR CLD SHIELD SPREADS IN                
AHEAD OF NEXT STORM BY DAYBREAK. TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES                  
WARMER THAN THIS MRNG BUT SHUD DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. WITH                
CALM WINDS UNDER SFC RIDGE...WIND CHILLS WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM.                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                 
DEVELOPING SFC LOW IN LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL EJECT NORTHEAST DRG               
THE DAY TUE INTO THE MID-MS AND OHIO VALLEYS. WARM ADVECTION PCPN               
SHUD BREAK ABOUT ACROSS WRN ZONES ARND 15Z AND OVERSPREAD PORTIONS              
OF CNY AND NEPA BY 18Z. INITIAL SNOW WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AS IT                 
DEVELOPS.                                                                       
LOW PROGGED TO MV INTO GREAT LKS REGION DRG THE AFTN WITH PCPN                  
AFFECTING ENTIRE FA BY 00Z WED. MVMNT OF SFC LOW THEN BCMS A                    
LITTLE MURKY AS NAM TRANSFERS MORE OF THE ENERGY TO THE COAST WITH              
A DEVELOPING SFC LOW. GFS FEATURES A MORE ELONGATED SFC LOW ACRS                
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY WED MRNG WITH INVERTED TROF AXIS                     
BISECTING FA. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES AND THE EFFECTS ON PTYPE AND                  
EXPECTED QPF...HAVE SIDED CLOSE TO HPC REGARDING QPF AMNTS AND                  
TRACK OF SFC FEATURES.                                                          
THERMAL PROFILES DIFFER MARKEDLY BTWN NAM AND GFS WITH GFS ONCE                 
AGAIN ON THE WARMER SIDE AS WE HAVE SEEN ALL WINTER. HV TRENDED                 
TOWARD MORE OF A COMPROMISE SOLN BTWN THE TWO. INITIAL PCPN COMES               
IN AS ALL SNOW ON TUE AFTN/EVNG BFR STARTING TO MIX. WITH WARM                  
LAYER NOSING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT...WILL LIKELY START TO SEE A MIX                 
OVR NEPA WITH SLEET AND SLOWLY TRANSITIONING OVER TO MORE OF A                  
FRZG RAIN TYPE SCENARIO. LATEST GFS WUD INDICATE WYOMING/                       
LACKAWANNA VALLEYS MAY CHG OVR TO ALL RAIN BUT THINK THE GFS MAY                
BE A LITTLE BIT OVERDONE WITH H8 TEMPS ARND +5C.                                
FURTHER NORTH...ENUF WARM AIR MAY WORK INTO TO MIX IN SLEET WITH                
THE SNOW ACRS THE TWIN TIERS AND POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH.               
LOOKS LIKE UP TOWARD MOHAWK VALLEY AND TUG HILL...PCPN SHUD STAY                
AT ALL SNOW...BUT AT THIS TIME THINK QPF WILL BE LIGHTER.                       
WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND AFTER COORD WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...            
HAVE OPTED TO LET WINTER STORM WATCH CONTINUE FOR NOW. SHUD SEE                 
ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL AND OR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PART OF THE              
CWA. OVERALL QUESTIONS RMN TO BE SEEN OF WHAT TYPE OF ADVISORY                  
CAN WE EXPECT...WILL ANY LOCATION BE CLOSE TO LOW-END WARNING                   
CRITERIA FOR SNOW AND/OR ICE AND CUD WE EVEN GET 7+ INCHES IN 12                
HRS TO MEET WARNING CRITERIA SNOWS. HEAVIEST SNOW LOOKS TO MV IN                
LATE TUE EVENING...LIGHTEN UP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ANOTHER HEAVIER               
BATCH TOWARD DAYBREAK (NOT TO MENTION THE MIX IN BETWEEN). WUD                  
RATHER SEE 00Z RUNS THIS EVENING TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON                      
PTYPE, TRACK OF SYSTEM, EXTENT AND STRENGTH OF WARM AIR, ETC. BFR               
BREAKING OUT AREAS FOR WARNINGS. CONFIDENCE IN WARNING CRITERIA AT              
THIS POINT IS BLO 50% FOR ANY ONE LOCATION.                                     
AFTER SYSTEM MVS EAST...EXPECT LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND              
ALTHO LAKE EFFECT LOOKS MINIMAL WITH H8 TEMPS ONLY DROPPING TO NR               
-10C. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MVS IN AGAIN THUR MORNING.                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...                                   
OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE PD.                  
QUICK WRM UP THU AHD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM MVG THRU THE NRN LAKES.                
COLD FNT PASSES LATE THU SO ANY PCPN THU NGT SHD BE SOME LEFTOVER               
SNOW IN THE COLDER AIR. HIPRES BLDS IN FOR SAT WITH QUITE CHILLY                
AIR ONCE AGAIN...H8 TEMPS LWR THAN -20C. SAT MRNG MAY BE THE                    
COLDEST MRNG OF THE WINTER. DEEP COLD AIR IS SHRT LIVED AS A                    
COMPLEX LOW APRCHS FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE PTNL FOR CSTL DVLPMT ON              
SUN. WILL FCST SNOW TO BEGIN DURING SUN. SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE                 
WATCHED.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AT ITH/BGM/ELM/AVP. AT                  
KRME...LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE TERMINAL THIS              
EVENING. EXPECT IT TO REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE AREA FOR A FEW                   
HOURS BEFORE IT DRIFTS BACK SOUTH...AND BRINGS MVFR CONDITIONS                  
BETWEEN 3 AND 9 Z WITH SOME OCCASIONAL IFR BETWEEN 3 AND 6Z. AT                 
SYR...EXPECT THE SOUTHWARD MOVING BAND TO SPREAD MVFR RESTRICTIONS              
BETWEEN 5 AND 10Z...AND EVEN HERE COULD SEE SOME IFR VSBYS BETWEEN              
5 AND 8Z.                                                                       
SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SITES ON                
TUESDAY MORNING...REACHING AVP BY 15Z...ITH/BGM/ELM BY 16-17Z AND               
SYR/RME BY 20-21Z. EXPECT RAPID DETERIORATION TO IFR VSBYS AND                  
MVFR CIGS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DROP TO LIFR AFTER A FEW                        
HOURS...BUT GIVEN HOW FAR OUT THE FORECAST IS BY THAT POINT...AND               
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN START TIME...HAVE USED PROB30 GROUPS FOR LIFR               
AT ITH/ELM/BGM FOR THE LAST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. AT                       
AVP...HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE...SO HAVE INTRODUCED LIFR CONDITIONS               
AFTER 19Z.                                                                      
FOR THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY TIMEFRAME...                             
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE TO MIXED PRECIP TUESDAY NIGHT WITH IFR               
CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE AT ALL SITES. ELM/BGM AND ESPECIALLY              
AVP SHOULD SEE SOME FORM OF A CHANGEOVER...WHICH COULD ACTUALLY                 
BRING VSBYS BACK UP TO MVFR. WEDNESDAY MORNING...MIXED PRECIP/SNOW              
CHANGES BACK TO ALL SNOW AND TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING                
THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT MORNING IFR RESTRICTIONS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR               
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR               
AT ALL SITES WITH RME/SYR BEING THE LAST TO IMPROVE. VFR                        
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE A COLD                 
FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE              
IN SHSN. FOR SATURDAY LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS/SHSN COULD VERY WELL                   
ALLOW THE MVFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT ALL SITES EXCEPT PERHAPS               
AVP.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY                  
     MORNING FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.                                
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY                  
     MORNING FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-                        
     055>057-062.                                                               
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR                   
     NYZ009-037.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...PVB                                                                  
NEAR TERM...PVB                                                                 
SHORT TERM...PVB                                                                
LONG TERM...DGM                                                                 
AVIATION...JMA                                                                  
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH                                           
649 PM EST TUE FEB 12 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE OF OHIO              
TONIGHT...AND INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH                  
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                        
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...                                    
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST WEST OF CINCINNATI. CURRENT 3 HOUR HEIGHT              
FALLS TRACK LOW RIGHT ACROSS CLE INTO THE CENTER OF LAKE ERIE. THE              
CURRENT TRACK OF THE LOW IS APPROXIMATELY 150 MILES NORTHWEST OF                
THE GFS/NAM TRACK.                                                              
CURRENTLY EVERYTHING SOUTH OF A MNN TO BJJ LINE IF FREEZING RAIN                
OF SLEET. WITH THE CURRENT TRACK OF THE LOW EXPECT NW OH TO GET                 
BURST OF HEAVY SNOW THIS EVENING...THEN ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. THE                 
REST OF OHIO AND NW PA SHOULD SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN                
AND SLEET...BEFORE TRANSITIONING BACK TO SNOW LATE THIS EVENING AS              
THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. THERE WILL ALSO BE A BRIEF PERIOD               
OF RAIN OVER NE OH/NW PA. THE FREEZING RAIN/RAIN TRANSITION LINE                
IS NOW BETWEEN ZANESVILLE AND NEW PHIL. NOW SURE HOW FAR NORTH THE              
SFC WARMING WILL REACH.                                                         
OF ALL THE MODELS THE RUC SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE LOW THE BEST.                
IT HAS THE LOW NORTH OF ERIE PA BY 06Z.                                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...                  
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECT SOME WARMING ACROSS NE OH/NW PA THIS                  
EVENING THEN DROPPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS FAR AS PRECIP BY MIDNIGHT              
SNOW SHOULD BE OVER NW OH...AND TRANSITIONED BACK TO SNOW                       
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT ONLY A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE                  
SNOWBELT TOMORROW MORNING.                                                      
GET A BREAK TOMORROW NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS MODELS IN GOOD                       
AGREEMENT MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. BUT                
THE BREAK WILL BE SHORT LIVED. THE ECMWF...GFS...AND NAM HAVE NEXT              
FRONT MOVING INTO NW OHIO BY FRIDAY MORNING.                                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                          
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY 12Z WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE                  
EASTERN LAKES WITH A COLD FRONT JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST.  WILL NEED TO            
START OUT WITH A MIX OF EITHER RAIN OR SNOW GIVEN 850MB TEMPS                   
FLIRTING WITH 0C.  IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO               
THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND TURN ANY REMAINING MIX BACK TO ALL             
SNOW FOR THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE                     
BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND BUT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ECMWF AND GFS             
DEVELOP ANOTHER WINTER STORM WHICH MOVES OUT OF THE GULF COAST                  
STATES.  QUESTION AT THIS POINT WILL BE THE STORM TRACK.  GFS TAKES             
THE LOW TO THE EAST COAST WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES IT THROUGH THE OHIO             
VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT.  BOTH WILL PROBABLY BE CORRECT WITH THE INITIAL            
LOW MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH THE ENERGY THEN TRANSLATING TO             
THE COAST.  WILL BRING CHC POPS FOR NOW AND GO WITH ALL SNOW BASED              
ON 850MB TEMPS. MONDAY WOULD EXPECT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO CONTINUE            
A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.  WILL CONTINUE CLOUDY ON TUESDAY BUT            
SHOULD BE IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                     
LOW PRESSURE NEAR MFD MOVING ENE. MAINLY IFR CONDITION ACROSS THE               
AREA WITH MIXED PRECIP...MAINLY SNOW FAR WEST FREEZING RAIN OR                  
RAIN ELSEWHERE. PRECIP IN EAST LIKELY TO CHANGE TO ALL RAIN FOR                 
AWHILE AS LOW TRACKS ENE...THEN TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW BEFORE                  
TAPERING OFF A FEW HOURS AFTER LOW PASSES. CIGS AND VSBY SHOULD                 
LIFT TO MAINLY MVFR LATE TONIGHT. COULD BE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE               
FOR FEW HOURS AFTER SNOW ENDS. DURING THE DAY TOMORROW HIGH                     
PRESSURE BUILD IN BUT BELIEVE MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW INVERSITION                
WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS.                                                            
.OUTLOOK...                                                                     
SKIES LIKELY TO CLEAR OR LEAST GO VFR TOMORROW NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE           
SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA AND WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. COULD SEE               
SOME MVFR SNOW SHOWERS WITH A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY BUT SHOULD SEE               
RETURN TO VFR SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE. NON VFR CONDITIONS                   
LIKELY WITH A COLD FRONT AND SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
LOW TRACKING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY IS FURTHER WEST THAN ORIGINALLY               
THOUGHT...NOW WITH AN ANTICIPATED TRACK THROUGH CENTRAL OHIO TO NEAR            
CLEVELAND.  THIS WILL TAKE THE CIRCULATION OVER THE LAKE AND                    
THEREFORE THE LAKE WILL EXPERIENCE A SHIFT FROM CURRENTLY EASTERLY              
WINDS AROUND THE DIAL TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS             
THE LOW PULLS AWAY.                                                             
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THURSDAY BRINGING               
WINDS ON THE LAKE AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST.  LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES             
ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES WILL TAKE A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE            
LAKE FRIDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOLLOWS FOR                
SATURDAY.  FORECAST FOR SUNDAY GETS MORE DIFFICULT WITH MODEL                   
DIFFERENCES.  TWO SYSTEMS...A NORTHERN STREAM AND A SOUTHERN STREAM             
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S.  FOR NOW HAVE THE               
NORTHERN STREAM A LITTLE FASTER AND THEREFORE HAVE SOUTHWEST FLOW               
AHEAD OF THAT SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY.                                                
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN AT 25 KNOTS OR LESS WITH             
THE WINDIEST DAY LOOKING TO BE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING.                       
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ003-              
     006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.                                   
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR                      
     PAZ001>003.                                                                
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...DJB                                                                  
NEAR TERM...DJB                                                                 
SHORT TERM...DJB                                                                
LONG TERM...TK                                                                  
AVIATION...RANDEL                                                               
MARINE...OUDEMAN                                                                
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK                                               
849 AM CST MON FEB 11 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONTINUE WITHIN LOW LEVEL JET AXIS AND ON EDGE              
850MB MOISTURE PLUME WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITIES SUPPORTING                     
CONTINUED CONVECTIVE NATURE OF DEVELOPING PRECIP. WEAK SURFACE LOW              
NOTED OVER FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WITH WEDGE OF COLDEST AIR                     
RAPIDLY ERODING EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE.                  
LATEST NAM/RUC BOTH MAINTAIN THIS WEAK LOW SIGNATURE ACROSS                     
EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WITH ADDITIONAL SURFACE WAVES LIKELY ALONG THE               
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RESULTANT FLOW               
AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY KEEP THE COLD WEDGE IN PLACE               
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44...WITH LARGE GRADIENT IN AFTERNOON                       
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THUS HAVE ADJUSTED              
TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY AND NEAREST THE LATEST RUC SOLUTIONS.                  
REGARDING ADDITIONAL ICING...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP                    
WITHIN JET AXIS WITH THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY                     
SHIFTING TO OUR NORTHEAST. HOWEVER EVEN WITH THE DECREASING                     
COVERAGE...ANY ADDITIONAL ICING WILL CAUSE AT LEAST TRAVEL                      
PROBLEMS....AND CURRENT HEADLINES MAY BE EXTENDED FURTHER INTO THE              
AFTERNOON IF TRENDS WARRANT.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TUL   38  29  45  22 /  70  60  10   0                                          
FSM   47  36  47  23 /  70  90  10   0                                          
MLC   49  35  48  25 /  50  80  10   0                                          
BVO   37  26  43  20 /  70  40   0   0                                          
FYV   44  30  40  19 /  80  80  10   0                                          
BYV   44  29  37  20 /  80  80  10   0                                          
MKO   43  32  45  22 /  80  70  10   0                                          
MIO   38  26  38  21 /  70  50  10   0                                          
F10   42  31  45  24 /  60  70   0   0                                          
HHW   55  38  51  26 /  40  80  20   0                                          
&&                                                                              
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-           
     OKZ058-OKZ063.                                                             
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ059-               
     OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ064-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ070.                          
AR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002.                  
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR ARZ011.                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...07                                                                 
LONG TERM....23                                                                 
</pre> ok                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                       
1008 PM EST TUE FEB 12 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN ARKANSAS LATE THIS MORNING WILL              
NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...REACHING THE LOWER GREAT               
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS STORM WILL BRING SNOW FOLLOWED BY A                     
WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON              
INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE THURSDAY.               
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON FRIDAY.                                       
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...                                    
RADAR TRENDS SHOWING CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE NOSING INTO THE                  
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER               
VALLEY FOR THE OVERNIGHT. SHORT TERM MODELS NOT HANDLING THIS                   
SURGE WELL IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT RUC FINALLY CATCHES ON WITH OVER              
ONE THIRD OF AN INCH QPF BY 12Z OVER MY SOUTHEAST AREAS. QUICK                  
UPGRADE TO ICE STORM WARNING FOR MY SOUTHEASTERN THIRD IS IN ORDER              
WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S AS CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS                
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 9 HOURS.              
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT FREEZING RAIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS COLD                
AIR ADVANCES FROM THE WEST INCREASING SFC CONVERGENCE OVER CENTRAL PA.          
MANY OF THESE AREAS WILL SEE BETWEEN ONE AND TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH              
OVERNIGHT AND WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL UPGRADES TO               
WARNINGS THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AGAIN BASED PRIMARILY ON              
RADAR EVOLUTION.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...                  
SREF 850 WIND VEERING TO THE WEST ACROSS WRN PENN AROUND 12Z                    
WED. OVER THE SUSQ VALLEY...WEAK COASTAL DEVELOPMENT WILL HOLD THE              
PRECIP BACK TO AROUND 16-18Z. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY WEAK LOW TO              
MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND A SLOW LIFTING OF THE CLOUD BASE.                  
CLOUDY SKIES WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIP WILL OCCUR DURING THE                     
AFTERNOON HOURS...OUTSIDE OF RAIN SHOWERS MIXING WITH SOME WET                  
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST...AND SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS                 
ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS (WHERE THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BASE AND                
HIGH MOISTURE WILL BE 3 KFT AGL OR LESS).                                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                 
RIDGING AT SFC AND ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE FAIR AND SEASONAL CONDS                 
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCT SNOW SHWRS OVR               
THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS FRIDAY.                                                 
MED RANGE ENS DATA CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE CHC FOR A SIG PRECIP                
EVENT IN THE SUN NITE TO MON NITE TIMEFRAME...AS DIGGING TROF OVR               
THE MIDWEST SPAWNS AN EAST COAST STORM.                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                     
INTENSE BANDS OF SNOW OVER THE AREA AT MID AFTERNOON NOW                        
QUICKLY MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE AREA. THE SNOW CAME DONW                        
HARD AT TIMES...WITH ONE REPORT OF 2 INCHES IN LESS THAN                        
AN HOUR ALONG RTE 30 IN YORK CO...ALONG WITH SOME THUNDER.                      
MOST AREAS WILL SEE SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE                      
BY MIDNIGHT...WITH IFR AND EVEN SOME LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.                 
SOME IMPROVEMENT ON WED...AS TEMPS WARM...ANY REMAINING                         
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. CONDITIONS MAINLY                      
IN THE IFR AND MVFR RANGE...AS THE COASTAL LOW TAKES OVER.                      
THE UPR TROF PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA BY THUR WITH IMPROVEMENT                   
XPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. SOME LOW CIGS/-SHSN MAY LINGER AT                
JST/BFD. A RETURN TO VFR LATER THUR INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRES              
BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.                                                 
ANOTHER LOW PRES SYS AND ATTENDANT FRONT ARE FCST TO MOVE THRU FRI              
INTO SAT ACCOMPANIED BY REDUCED CIGS/VIS IN RA/SN SHWRS. LINGERING              
-SHSN IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA COULD KEEP BFD/JST MVFR THRU EARLY               
SAT.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.EQUIPMENT...                                                                   
SOME MINOR THINGS EARLIER...HAD TO BRUSH OFF THE SBN DISH...                    
BUT OK NOW.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR                            
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>027-033>035-037-041-042-045-046.                 
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ028-036-                      
049>053-056>059-063>066.                                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...TYBURSKI                                                             
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR                                                              
SHORT TERM...RXR/TYBURSKI                                                       
LONG TERM...TYBURSKI                                                            
AVIATION...MARTIN/RXR                                                           
</pre> pa                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1032 AM EST TUE FEB 12 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURES ALONG A COLD            
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  THE FRONT WILL CROSS OUR                       
REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE                   
EASTERN STATES...THEN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY.  ANOTHER            
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE CAROLINAS FROM THE GULF THIS WEEKEND.            
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
1030 MB HIGH PRES CENTER REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION THIS                       
MORNING...WITH A SLOW NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE              
DEEP SOUTH. EARLY DAY RADAR RETURNS INDICATED SPRINKLES FALLING FROM            
A MID DECK...BUT NOT REACHING THE GROUND. THIS INITIAL WAVE WILL                
LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER AND MID             
LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY SPREADING IN WELL AHEAD OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY            
SYSTEM. AN ATLANTIC FETCH PLUME OF MOISTURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO                
AFFECT THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR WELL AHEAD OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE             
WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. WILL THUS MAINTAIN HEALTHY CHANCE POPS IN              
ERN PIEDMONT SECTION BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCE POPS RAMPING UP            
IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ESCARPMENT LOCATIONS AS WELL.                                 
MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED A 50+ KT 850 MB JET SLOWLY                 
TRANSLATING EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE MS VALLEY SYSTEM. WINDS ALONG THE             
HIGH RIDGE TOPS WILL STEADILY INCREASE...WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40 KT                 
LIKELY BY LATE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE THE EXISTING LAKE WIND                  
ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY NEED EXTENSION INTO                 
TONIGHT...PENDING REVIEW OF 12Z MODEL SUITE.                                    
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...                             
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AREA MOVES INTO THE NC              
PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS AFTER 00Z WED WHILE H92-H85 UPSLOPE FLOW                 
INCREASES ACROSS THE S FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES. POPS WILL INCREASE               
OVERNIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND REACHES THE WESTERN MOUNTAIN             
COUNTIES BY 12Z. THE H85 JET CORE SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AND A GENERAL             
DECREASE IN SFC WINDS IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FROPA...UNTIL STRONG             
CAA WINDS KICK IN AROUND 18Z WED. NAMKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW MOMENTUM                
TRANSFERS ON THE ORDER OF 35 TO 45 KTS BETWEEN 20Z WED AND 06Z THU              
AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WED            
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THU.                                                    
NICE THETA/E ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP THE LLVLS              
TOO WARM FOR ANY P/TYPE CONCERNS. A BLEND OF MODEL NOMOGRAMS SHOW               
THE A GOOD POSSIBILITY OF A IP/SN MIX ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS NORTH OF             
I-40 AFTER 18Z WED ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLVL CAA AND THE GRIDS HAVE              
BEEN MODIFIED TO INCLUDE THIS. THIS WILL BE AROUND THE SAME TIME                
DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WANES SO WILL NOT EXPECT MUCH IF ANY                      
ACCUMULATION...ESPECIALLY WITH AN EXISTING WET GROUND. THE NC/TN                
BORDER COUNTY AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS COULD SEE UP TO HALF            
INCH OF SN THROUGH 06Z THU AS -SNSH SHOULD CONTINUE IN A SHORT NW               
FLOW REGIME. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE                
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AFTER 02Z THU AND ABOUT 4-5 HOURS BEFORE THIS IN               
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...SO BLACK ICE COULD CERTAINLY BE AN ISSUE WITH           
THE MORNING COMMUTES THU MORNING THROUGH 10Z.                                   
EXPECT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND NICELY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE               
NORMAL THU. THE H85 THERMAL TROF QUICKLY LIFTS NORTH WITH H5 FLAT               
RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND SFC HIGH GETS SHUNTED TO THE              
COAST ALLOWING GOOD INSOLATION AND A BIT OF AFTERNOON SOUTHERLY                 
FLOW.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...                                   
AS OF 230 AM TUESDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE HIGH PRESSURE            
CENTER MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY EVENING.  THIS                
HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS A RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS INTO MID DAY                 
FRIDAY...THEN GIVES AWAY TO LOW PRESSURE AND A FRONT APPROACHING                
FROM THE WEST.  THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.              
ON THE GFS...THE COLD FRONT MOVES JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA FRIDAY                 
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER                 
VALLEY INTO SATURDAY.  SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FORMING AHEAD OF            
A CUT OFF UPPER LOW ON SATURDAY THEN START MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS              
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI SATURDAY NIGHT.  AT 12Z SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE            
WILL WEDGE IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AS THE LOW             
PRESSURE SPREADS IN MOISTURE FROM THE WEST.  WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH              
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ICE OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH                  
CAROLINA EARLY SUNDAY.  THE LOW ON THE GFS WILL BE PASSING JUST                 
NORTH OF OUR AREA SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE FRONT CROSSING FROM THE               
WEST.  WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA                 
MOUNTAINS WILL THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CROSSING AND SNOW SHOWERS                  
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.                                                           
ON THE ECMWF...THE SYSTEM IS MUCH SLOWER IN PROGRESSING ACROSS THE              
SOUTHEAST AND TAKES A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK AS COMPARED TO LAST NIGHTS            
RUN.  AT 12Z SATURDAY...THIS MODEL MAINTAINS LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE              
MOUNTAINS THEN KEEPS ALL PRECIP TO OUR WEST UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY.                 
EARLY SUNDAY...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS ON THE NEW ENGLAND COAST               
AND BRINGS COOLER THICKNESSES INTO THE CAROLINAS AHEAD OF THE                   
APPROACHING LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  HOWEVER...THIS PERIOD OF                   
POSSIBLE WINTRY PRECIP IS RATHER BRIEF AS WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL               
PREVAIL.  GOOD QPF AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO AROUND 2 INCHES WEST OF              
US BUT FADES OUT A BIT AS IT GETS TO OUR AREA.  THE WRAP AROUND SNOW            
SHOWERS WITH THIS MODEL WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...GOING             
INTO THE AFTER FORECAST PERIOD.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
THE LOW STRATUS LAYER CONTINUES TO HOLD IN ACROSS NC                            
PIEDMONT/FOOTHILL LOCATIONS LATE THIS MORNING...BUT SOME DEGREE OF              
SCATTERING HAS OCCURRED IN THE VICINITY OF KCLT. LATEST RUC13                   
SOUNDINGS INDICATE IFR CIG PERSISTING AT KHKY UNTIL 17Z...WITH RAPID            
IMPROVEMENT THROUGH EARLY AFTN. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE LACK            
OF MAINTENANCE UPGLIDE AND STEADILY WARMING SURFACE TEMPERATURES.               
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE                   
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS             
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP KCLT VICINITY...AND ALSO OVER THE SW MTNS. AS               
THE SHOWERS INCREASE...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP            
AS WELL. FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO COME AROUND TO SOUTHERLY...BUT                 
PROBABLY SLOWER THAN FORECAST BY MODELS AT KHKY TO KCLT WITH                    
RESIDUAL COLD WEDGE.                                                            
GREATEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES...AND ASSOCIATED WIDESPREAD IFR                  
CIG...SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT.                  
FAIRLY RAPID DRYING IS EXPECTED FROM THE WEST 12Z TO 18Z WED.                   
AVIATION OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND              
EVENING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY               
AND WILL REMAIN INTO FRI...KEEPING CONDITIONS VFR.                              
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ033-               
     048>053-058-059-062>065.                                                   
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...PAT                                                                  
NEAR TERM...HG                                                                  
SHORT TERM...SBK                                                                
LONG TERM...DEO                                                                 
AVIATION...HG/RWH                                                               
</pre> sc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
823 PM CST TUE FEB 12 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
BAND OF HIGHER MID CLOUDS PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATED AS IT MOVED EAST               
AWAY FROM THE JAMES VALLEY THIS EVENING...AND HAVE ADJUSTED SKY                 
COVER TO REDUCE CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA TO MOSTLY CLEAR              
OR PARTLY CLOUDY RANGE FOR THE EVENING...WITH SOME INCREASE LATER               
IN THE NIGHT AS NARROW BAND OF LOWER CLOUDS NOW IN THE JAMES VALLEY             
SLIDES EAST.                                                                    
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND FAIRLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN             
CWA...TEMPS HAVE REALLY TAKEN A NOSEDIVE DURING THE EARLY EVENING...            
ESPECIALLY IN TYPICAL DRAINAGE AREAS AND RIVER VALLEYS. HAVE MADE               
SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO DROP LOW TEMPERATURES...THOUGH DO EXPECT                 
TEMPS TO LEVEL OFF SOME THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS CLOUD BAND               
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. UPDATED GRIDS/PFM/ZFP SENT EARLIER...THOUGH             
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON TEMPS IN NORTHWEST IOWA.                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FAIRLY NARROW BAND OF MVFR CIGS FM BTWN ATY AND HON SWD THRU MHE TO             
W OF YKN AT 02Z MOVG EWD TO I29 CORRIDOR ARND 06Z...THEN OVER SWRN              
MN AND NWRN IA FM 06Z TO 09Z...FLWD BY GENLY VFR. HOWEVER...PATCHY              
MVFR FOG THEN PSBL OVER AREA MAINLY E OF JAMES RIVER FM 10Z TO 14Z.             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK IS CHANCES FOR            
PCPN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED                  
SURFACE LOW SWING THROUGH THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.               
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSES DEPICT A                  
FAIRLY SHARP TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA...WITH OUR AREA ON               
THE BACKSIDE OF THIS FEATURE AND IN A GENERAL AREA OF SUBSIDENCE AT             
THIS TIME. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WAS APPARENT DIVING SOUTHEAST            
FROM MANITOBA TOWARD MINNESOTA. THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS                
SHORTWAVE WILL STAY NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA TONIGHT AS WILL THE              
LIMITED AREA OF DEEPER SATURATION. WE WILL SEE SOME FORCING AS THE              
LOW LEVEL TROUGH/WARM FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE AREA...BUT AT                
THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD ONLY SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD                 
COVER AND NO PCPN AS THIS SWINGS THROUGH. THE 12Z NAM AND GFS ARE               
FAIRLY SIMILAR IN THEIR HANDLING OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES OVER THE            
NEXT FEW DAYS...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN                    
INTENSITY AND PLACEMENT. IN GENERAL...THE GFS IS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH            
WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND ALLOWS               
PCPN TO EXTEND SOMEWHAT FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE NAM. IN                          
ADDITION...THE GFS ALSO SATURATES THINGS MORE QUICKLY AND OVER A                
WIDER AREA THAN THE NAM...AND IS A BIT HIGHER IN ITS PREDICTED PCPN             
AMOUNTS AS A RESULT. UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE THE GFS AND NAM FOR THE            
FORECAST DETAILS...TRENDING A BIT MORE TOWARD THE GFS TO ALLOW FOR A            
BIT MORE PCPN SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH.                                           
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR A               
TIME TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF 1000-850MB WARM ADVECTION SLIDES ACROSS              
THE AREA...THEN WE SHOULD BE BACK TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AWAITING               
THE MAIN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO                
MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MID/HIGH CLOUDS                      
DESCENDING THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON                       
WEDNESDAY...THEN THICKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL RETURN               
FLOW SETS UP AND WARM ADVECTION INCREASES. THE 290K ISENTROPIC                  
SURFACE SHOWS A DRAMATIC INCREASE IN UPGLIDE BY 00Z                             
THURSDAY...WITH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS DROPPING BELOW 50MB              
OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CWFA. THIS PERSISTS THROUGH 06Z...WITH                
IMPLIED SATURATION OVER ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. GOOD                   
PACKING OF THE PRESSURE SURFACES IS INDICATED...WITH 40KT WINDS AT              
NEARLY A PERPENDICULAR ANGLE TO THEM...SUGGESTING A GOOD PERIOD OF              
ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THIS IS MAXIMIZED NORTH AND EAST OF OUR                      
AREA...WHICH IS ALSO WHERE THE BETTER SATURATION IS EXPECTED...BUT              
THE NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD STILL SEE                
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.                   
MIXING RATIOS OF AROUND 3.5 G/KG ARE PROGGED...BUT WITH ONLY ABOUT              
A 6-HR WINDOW OF GOOD ISENTROPIC ASCENT EXPECTED...FEEL IT WILL BE              
TOUGH FOR ANYWHERE IN OUR FORECAST AREA TO SEE MUCH MORE THAN 3.5               
INCHES...AND EVEN THAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE NORTH AND EAST.                
OVER THE SOUTH WHERE SATURATION WILL BE A BIT TOUGHER TO COME BY                
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PCPN WITH AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER              
ADVERTISED BY THE NAM AND GFS UNTIL THINGS BECOME SUFFICIENTLY                  
SATURATED. WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF SOME FZRA EARLY ON TO ACCOUNT              
FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. THE EASTERN CWFA LOOKS LIKE IT WILL GET SOME              
ADDITIONAL HELP/SUPPORT FOR A BRIEF TIME THURSDAY MORNING AS                    
FORCING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRIEFLY CORRESPONDS WITH SOME                
UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE EXIT REGION OF THE 110KT 300MB JET THAT                 
WILL BE LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH. WINDS WILL INCREASE QUITE A BIT                   
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH 925-850MB WINDS OF 35-40KT AND GOOD COLD                
ADVECTION HELPING TO MIX DOWN A GOOD PORTION OF THAT. WILL INCLUDE              
THE MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS THESE                 
STRONG WINDS SWING THROUGH THE AREA. SUBSIDENCE LOOKS LIKE IT                   
SHOULD SCOUR OUT MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN                  
RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.                      
IN THE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIME FRAME THE MEDIUM RANGE                     
GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE                     
LONGWAVE FEATURES OVER NORTH AMERICA...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE THE                   
EXPECTED DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING...POSITION...AND AMPLITUDE OF                
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES. THE HPC PROGS GENERALLY FAVOR THE ECMWF FOR              
THE DETAILS...AND WILL STICK FAIRLY CLOSE TO THAT IDEA...WITH SOME              
BLENDING TOWARD THE GOING FORECAST AS WELL AS THE OPERATIONAL GFS               
AND GFS ENSEMBLE. IN GENERAL...THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL                   
PERSIST OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...WITH RIDGING ALONG THE WEST                
COAST. A CUTOFF LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM ON SATURDAY WILL PHASE               
WITH THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH AS IT BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED BY LATE               
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND THEN THE UPPER PATTERN SHOULD PROGRESS                    
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD BY TUESDAY. ALL IN ALL...THIS WILL KEEP                       
GENERALLY DRY NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW OVER OUR AREA THROUGHOUT THIS                
TIME FRAME. CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL BE DICTATED BY THE PASSAGE OF                 
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES AND FRONTAL FEATURES...WHICH WILL BE                      
DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXPECTED              
UPPER AIR PATTERN AND ITS GENERALLY DRY AND COOL NATURE...NO                    
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKERS APPEAR IN STORE FOR THE AREA AT THIS                 
POINT. A CLIPPER WILL SCOOT BY TO THE NORTH AND EAST ON                         
SATURDAY...HELPING TO BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER                        
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SOME CHANCE FOR PCPN. AT THIS POINT THE                 
MAIN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DPVA LOOK TO BE TO OUR NORTH AND                       
EAST...SO WILL JUST INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW. IN                        
ADDITION...TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY LOOK MARGINALLY COLD FOR                       
SNOW...WITH SOME WARMER 925-850MB TEMPERATURES TRYING TO SNEAK IN               
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. GIVEN THE LOW OVERALL PROBABILITY OF                    
PCPN...WILL ONLY MENTION SNOW AT THIS POINT...ALTHOUGH IF THERE IS              
ANY PCPN THERE IS SOME CHANCE THAT IT COULD BE MIXED OVER THE                   
SOUTH. ANY FORCING AND MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD SHIFT EAST              
BY SUNDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS              
THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...SO WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR                 
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AT THIS POINT.                                           
&&                                                                              
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IA...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
SD...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
 JH/RSR                                                                         
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                    
254 PM CST TUE FEB 12 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK IS CHANCES                
FOR PCPN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED              
SURFACE LOW SWING THROUGH THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.               
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSES DEPICT A                  
FAIRLY SHARP TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA...WITH OUR AREA ON               
THE BACKSIDE OF THIS FEATURE AND IN A GENERAL AREA OF SUBSIDENCE                
AT THIS TIME. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WAS APPARENT DIVING                   
SOUTHEAST FROM MANITOBA TOWARD MINNESOTA. THE FORCING ASSOCIATED                
WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL STAY NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA TONIGHT AS             
WILL THE LIMITED AREA OF DEEPER SATURATION. WE WILL SEE SOME                    
FORCING AS THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH/WARM FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE               
AREA...BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD ONLY SEE AN                     
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND NO PCPN AS THIS SWINGS THROUGH. THE                 
12Z NAM AND GFS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN THEIR HANDLING OF SYNOPTIC                
SCALE FEATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME                 
MINOR DIFFERENCES IN INTENSITY AND PLACEMENT. IN GENERAL...THE GFS              
IS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WEDNESDAY NIGHT                 
INTO THURSDAY AND ALLOWS PCPN TO EXTEND SOMEWHAT FARTHER SOUTH                  
THAN THE NAM. IN ADDITION...THE GFS ALSO SATURATES THINGS MORE                  
QUICKLY AND OVER A WIDER AREA THAN THE NAM...AND IS A BIT HIGHER                
IN ITS PREDICTED PCPN AMOUNTS AS A RESULT. UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE              
THE GFS AND NAM FOR THE FORECAST DETAILS...TRENDING A BIT MORE                  
TOWARD THE GFS TO ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE PCPN SLIGHTLY FARTHER                    
SOUTH.                                                                          
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR A               
TIME TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF 1000-850MB WARM ADVECTION SLIDES ACROSS              
THE AREA...THEN WE SHOULD BE BACK TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AWAITING               
THE MAIN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO                
MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MID/HIGH CLOUDS                      
DESCENDING THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON                       
WEDNESDAY...THEN THICKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL RETURN               
FLOW SETS UP AND WARM ADVECTION INCREASES. THE 290K ISENTROPIC                  
SURFACE SHOWS A DRAMATIC INCREASE IN UPGLIDE BY 00Z                             
THURSDAY...WITH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS DROPPING BELOW 50MB              
OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CWFA. THIS PERSISTS THROUGH 06Z...WITH                
IMPLIED SATURATION OVER ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. GOOD                   
PACKING OF THE PRESSURE SURFACES IS INDICATED...WITH 40KT WINDS AT              
NEARLY A PERPENDICULAR ANGLE TO THEM...SUGGESTING A GOOD PERIOD OF              
ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THIS IS MAXIMIZED NORTH AND EAST OF OUR                      
AREA...WHICH IS ALSO WHERE THE BETTER SATURATION IS EXPECTED...BUT              
THE NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD STILL SEE                
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.                   
MIXING RATIOS OF AROUND 3.5 G/KG ARE PROGGED...BUT WITH ONLY ABOUT              
A 6-HR WINDOW OF GOOD ISENTROPIC ASCENT EXPECTED...FEEL IT WILL BE              
TOUGH FOR ANYWHERE IN OUR FORECAST AREA TO SEE MUCH MORE THAN 3.5               
INCHES...AND EVEN THAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE NORTH AND EAST.                
OVER THE SOUTH WHERE SATURATION WILL BE A BIT TOUGHER TO COME BY                
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PCPN WITH AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER              
ADVERTISED BY THE NAM AND GFS UNTIL THINGS BECOME SUFFICIENTLY                  
SATURATED. WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF SOME FZRA EARLY ON TO ACCOUNT              
FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. THE EASTERN CWFA LOOKS LIKE IT WILL GET SOME              
ADDITIONAL HELP/SUPPORT FOR A BRIEF TIME THURSDAY MORNING AS                    
FORCING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRIEFLY CORRESPONDS WITH SOME                
UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE EXIT REGION OF THE 110KT 300MB JET THAT                 
WILL BE LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH. WINDS WILL INCREASE QUITE A BIT                   
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH 925-850MB WINDS OF 35-40KT AND GOOD COLD                
ADVECTION HELPING TO MIX DOWN A GOOD PORTION OF THAT. WILL INCLUDE              
THE MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS THESE                 
STRONG WINDS SWING THROUGH THE AREA. SUBSIDENCE LOOKS LIKE IT                   
SHOULD SCOUR OUT MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN                  
RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.                      
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
IN THE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIME FRAME THE MEDIUM RANGE                     
GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE                     
LONGWAVE FEATURES OVER NORTH AMERICA...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE THE                   
EXPECTED DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING...POSITION...AND AMPLITUDE OF                
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES. THE HPC PROGS GENERALLY FAVOR THE ECMWF FOR              
THE DETAILS...AND WILL STICK FAIRLY CLOSE TO THAT IDEA...WITH SOME              
BLENDING TOWARD THE GOING FORECAST AS WELL AS THE OPERATIONAL GFS               
AND GFS ENSEMBLE. IN GENERAL...THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL                   
PERSIST OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...WITH RIDGING ALONG THE WEST                
COAST. A CUTOFF LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM ON SATURDAY WILL PHASE               
WITH THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH AS IT BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED BY LATE               
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND THEN THE UPPER PATTERN SHOULD PROGRESS                    
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD BY TUESDAY. ALL IN ALL...THIS WILL KEEP                       
GENERALLY DRY NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW OVER OUR AREA THROUGHOUT THIS                
TIME FRAME. CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL BE DICTATED BY THE PASSAGE OF                 
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES AND FRONTAL FEATURES...WHICH WILL BE                      
DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXPECTED              
UPPER AIR PATTERN AND ITS GENERALLY DRY AND COOL NATURE...NO                    
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKERS APPEAR IN STORE FOR THE AREA AT THIS                 
POINT. A CLIPPER WILL SCOOT BY TO THE NORTH AND EAST ON                         
SATURDAY...HELPING TO BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER                        
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SOME CHANCE FOR PCPN. AT THIS POINT THE                 
MAIN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DPVA LOOK TO BE TO OUR NORTH AND                       
EAST...SO WILL JUST INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW. IN                        
ADDITION...TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY LOOK MARGINALLY COLD FOR                       
SNOW...WITH SOME WARMER 925-850MB TEMPERATURES TRYING TO SNEAK IN               
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. GIVEN THE LOW OVERALL PROBABILITY OF                    
PCPN...WILL ONLY MENTION SNOW AT THIS POINT...ALTHOUGH IF THERE IS              
ANY PCPN THERE IS SOME CHANCE THAT IT COULD BE MIXED OVER THE                   
SOUTH. ANY FORCING AND MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD SHIFT EAST              
BY SUNDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS              
THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...SO WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR                 
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AT THIS POINT.                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION                                         
AREA OF LOW END VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS IN THE VICINITY OF THE                    
SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST/SOUTH OF TAF SITES AND                  
SHRINKING THIS AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL                   
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AT KHON/KFSD/KSUX...BEFORE THE AREA OF MID                 
LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS ARRIVES LATE THIS AFTERNOON               
AND EVENING. PREVALENT LIGHT WEST/SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL                  
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...AHEAD                
OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.                                       
&&                                                                              
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IA...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
SD...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
99/99                                                                           
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
1030 AM CST TUE FEB 12 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MAIN UPDATE FOCUS IS MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY...WHICH IS NOT GOING                
TO BE AN EASY FORECAST. FOR JAMES VALLEY EAST...LOW CLOUDS RAPIDLY              
ERODING WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS                    
THANKS TO UNFAVORABLE RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. WILL SEE LIGHT          
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOP AS WELL. UNSURE HOW WELL LIGHT WINDS AND A               
MID FEBRUARY SUN WILL CONSPIRE TO WARM TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER WILL              
TREND TOWARDS LOWER END OF GUIDANCE WHICH ALLOWS FOR A WARMING                  
INTO THE TEENS BUT BELOW 20. THERE IS ALSO THE QUESTION OF IMPACT               
FROM INCREASED CLOUDS LATE TODAY AS WEAK TROUGH PASSES THOUGH THE               
REGION. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST WITH                           
BETTER MIXING POTENTIAL OF H925 TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -4 TO                      
-8C...THEREFORE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MAY OCCUR DURING TROUGH                     
PASSAGE OR TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN FAIRLY LEVEL THROUGH THE                     
EVENING.                                                                        
FOR CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL SD...WITH A COLD START DUE TO                     
FAVORABLE RADIATIVE CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY               
BELOW ZERO...WITH TEENS TO THE WEST. WINDS SWITCHING TO                         
WESTERLY...BUT REMAIN LIGHT. ALSO CONTENDING WITH INCREASING CLOUD              
COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A COMBINATION OF WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION              
AND MIXING WITH TROUGH PASSAGE COULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE                 
INTO THE 20S.                                                                   
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TOWARDS POTENTIAL IMPACT FROM STORM SYSTEM                    
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...HAVE NOT MADE ANY ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME                 
BUT WILL BE MAIN FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON DISCUSSION. AVIATION                       
FORECAST UPDATED BELOW.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY                                            
MAIN UPPER LOW AND SFC TROUGH HAS PASSED THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST              
BUT SECONDARY WEAK VORT MAX SHOWN ON RUC ANALYSIS BRINGING ISO/SCT              
FLURRIES TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CWA. HAVE THEREFORE ADDED              
SCT FLURRIES UP THROUGH 12Z AND BY THIS TIME VORT MAX WILL BE                   
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE SLIDING SOUTHEAST              
OUT OF EASTERN MT AND EASTERN WY...READY TO MOVE INTO WESTERN SD.               
MODEL QPF OUTPUT AS WELL AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POSSIBILITY                
FOR A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP                
SHOULD BE TO THE NORTH AND TO THE SOUTH...LEAVING THE CWA IN A                  
VOID OF BETTER PRECIP CHANCES. HIGH TEMPS TODAY RATHER TRICKY AND               
STUCK CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE. THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE                 
AREA TODAY BUT FRESH 1 TO 4 INCH SNOW FROM YESTERDAY WILL MORE                  
THAN LIKELY KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING TO FULL POTENTIAL. MAIN ISSUE                
IN THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE STORM SYSTEM SET TO AFFECT                
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. NAM SEEMS                
TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IS NOTICEABLY FARTHER NORTH               
WITH THE LOW TRACK COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS. MODEL QPF OUTPUT                   
ALONG WITH HPC GUIDANCE HIT THE NORTHEASTERN CWA HARDEST WITH                   
ABOUT 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW...AND THIS SEEMS LIKELY GIVEN THE                   
FORCING/FRONTOGENESIS AND SNOW RATIOS. BUFKIT SNOW GROWTH REGION                
FOR ABR LINES UP WELL WITH OMEGA BULLSEYE. COULD BE LOOKING AT                  
SNOW ADVISORY TYPE EVENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST BUT WILL LET LATER                
SHIFTS DECIDE ON ANY POSSIBLE HEADLINES AS IT APPEARS WINDS WILL                
BE AN ISSUE BEHIND THE SYSTEM.                                                  
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY                                      
PCPN AND TEMPERATURES REMAIN A CHALLENGE. 00Z MODELS ARE IN FAIR                
AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE/SYNOPTIC SCALE MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN                
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE. AS SUCH...ALL ARE ADVERTISING A HIGHLY                
AMPLIFIED/HIGHLY MERIDIONAL FLOW DEVELOPING AS MID LEVEL RIDGE                  
BUILDS STRONGLY ALONG WEST COAST...WITH CONSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM TROF              
OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS. ABOUT THE ONLY SUBSTANTIVE DIFFERENCE               
IN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THAT THE ECMWF                   
REMAINS CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS TROF AXIS               
ANCHORED FURTHER WEST VS THE GFS. IF CORRECT...THIS COULD PLAY OUT AS           
COLDER TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOMETHING FOR LATER SHIFTS TO              
PONDER.                                                                         
MEANWHILE THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PCPN DURING THE TIME                   
PERIOD APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. BOTH ECMWF/GFS SCOOT              
A CLIPPER-LIKE WAVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE ECMWF BEING                      
SOMEWHAT STRONGER THAN THE GFS. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH STRENGTH                
OF THE SYSTEM...FEEL CURRENT ISOLD POPS ARE APPROPRIATE.                        
TEMPERATURES WERE MODIFIED A BIT HERE AND THERE. THE MAJORITY OF                
CHANGES WERE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY WHERE I RAISED THEM A TOUCH              
BASED OFF LATEST GFS/ECMWF LOWER TROPOSPHERIC TEMP PROGS.                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GRADUAL CLEARING TREND AT KABR AND KATY OVER               
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHILE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE                     
INCREASE FOR KMBG AND KPIR DURING THE AFTERNOON. VISBY WILL REMAIN              
UNRESTRICTED ACROSS THE CWA TODAY AND TONIGHT. AVIATION FORECAST A              
BIT TRICKY EARLY TOMORROW WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF OUR NEXT              
WEATHER SYSTEM. CIGS WILL REMAIN MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR                  
AROUND KPIR...WHILE KMBG...KABY...KABR WILL SEE CIGS TURN MVFR                  
BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 12Z BUT                   
VISBY RESTRICTIONS ONLY EXPECTED AT KABR/KMBG AT THIS TIME.                     
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...CONNELLY                                                               
SHORT TERM...TMT                                                                
LONG TERM...TDK                                                                 
AVIATION...TDK                                                                  
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN                                                            
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
410 AM CST TUE FEB 12 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY                                            
MAIN UPPER LOW AND SFC TROUGH HAS PASSED THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST              
BUT SECONDARY WEAK VORT MAX SHOWN ON RUC ANALYSIS BRINGING ISO/SCT              
FLURRIES TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CWA. HAVE THEREFORE ADDED              
SCT FLURRIES UP THROUGH 12Z AND BY THIS TIME VORT MAX WILL BE                   
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE SLIDING SOUTHEAST              
OUT OF EASTERN MT AND EASTERN WY...READY TO MOVE INTO WESTERN SD.               
MODEL QPF OUTPUT AS WELL AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POSSIBILITY                
FOR A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP                
SHOULD BE TO THE NORTH AND TO THE SOUTH...LEAVING THE CWA IN A                  
VOID OF BETTER PRECIP CHANCES. HIGH TEMPS TODAY RATHER TRICKY AND               
STUCK CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE. THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE                 
AREA TODAY BUT FRESH 1 TO 4 INCH SNOW FROM YESTERDAY WILL MORE                  
THAN LIKELY KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING TO FULL POTENTIAL. MAIN ISSUE                
IN THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE STORM SYSTEM SET TO AFFECT                
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. NAM SEEMS                
TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IS NOTICEABLY FARTHER NORTH               
WITH THE LOW TRACK COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS. MODEL QPF OUTPUT                   
ALONG WITH HPC GUIDANCE HIT THE NORTHEASTERN CWA HARDEST WITH                   
ABOUT 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW...AND THIS SEEMS LIKELY GIVEN THE                   
FORCING/FRONTOGENESIS AND SNOW RATIOS. THE QUESTION REMAINS THOUGH              
AS TO WHERE THIS HEAVIER BAND SETS UP. BUFKIT SNOW GROWTH REGION                
FOR ABR LINES UP WELL WITH OMEGA BULLSEYE. COULD BE LOOKING AT                  
SNOW ADVISORY TYPE EVENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST BUT WILL LET LATER                
SHIFTS DECIDE ON ANY POSSIBLE HEADLINES AS IT APPEARS WINDS WILL                
BE AN ISSUE BEHIND THE SYSTEM. ALSO DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON                      
HEADLINES AFTER GLANCING QUICK AT THE 06Z GFS WHICH NOW SHIFTS THE              
LOW TRACK A TAD FARTHER NORTH...BRINGING HEAVIEST SNOWS FARTHER                 
NORTH AND EAST INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA.                         
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY                                      
PCPN AND TEMPERATURES REMAIN A CHALLENGE. 00Z MODELS ARE IN FAIR                
AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE/SYNOPTIC SCALE MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN                
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE. AS SUCH...ALL ARE ADVERTISING A HIGHLY                
AMPLIFIED/HIGHLY MERIDIONAL FLOW DEVELOPING AS MID LEVEL RIDGE                  
BUILDS STRONGLY ALONG WEST COAST...WITH CONSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM TROF              
OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS. ABOUT THE ONLY SUBSTANTIVE DIFFERENCE               
IN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THAT THE ECMWF                   
REMAINS CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS TROF AXIS               
ANCHORED FURTHER WEST VS THE GFS. IF CORRECT...THIS COULD PLAY OUT AS           
COLDER TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOMETHING FOR LATER SHIFTS TO              
PONDER.                                                                         
MEANWHILE THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PCPN DURING THE TIME                   
PERIOD APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. BOTH ECMWF/GFS SCOOT              
A CLIPPER-LIKE WAVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE ECMWF BEING                      
SOMEWHAT STRONGER THAN THE GFS. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH STRENGTH                
OF THE SYSTEM...FEEL CURRENT ISOLD POPS ARE APPROPRIATE.                        
TEMPERATURES WERE MODIFIED A BIT HERE AND THERE. THE MAJORITY OF                
CHANGES WERE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY WHERE I RAISED THEM A TOUCH              
BASED OFF LATEST GFS/ECMWF LOWER TROPOSPHERIC TEMP PROGS.                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
OVERALL THE MVFR/VFR CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY ERODE/DISSIPATE OVER                 
THE AREA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...MORE MVFR CIGS AROUND 15-25                    
HUNDRED FEET ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD KMBG/KPIR TERMINALS THIS                
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...TMT                                                                
LONG TERM...TDK                                                                 
AVIATION...TDK                                                                  
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN                                                            
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
835 PM CST MON FEB 11 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
RADAR INDICATING SOME NEW LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS FAR                     
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND THE AREA IS DRIFTING                            
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...SO HAVE REINTRODUCED A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT                  
SNOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. ALSO LOWERED                
TEMPS A BIT MORE FOR TONIGHT OUT WEST AS CLEARING LINE HAS REACHED              
THE WESTERN PORTION OF CORSON COUNTY. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT                  
THIS TIME. NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT                                     
FOCUS THIS PERIOD IS ON NEAR TERM AS HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES IN A                  
BAND FROM SOUTH OF KABR TO NORTH OF KPIR. THIS FEATURE HAS SLOWLY               
DRIFTED SOUTHWARD FROM NORTH CENTRAL SD THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND HAS              
PRODUCED A SWATH OF 2 INCH SNOWFALL. SUPPORT FOR CONTINUED HEAVY                
SNOWFALL TO DIMINISH AND DRIFT SOUTHWARDS. WILL CONTINUE SNOW                   
ADVISORY INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH ANTICIPATION THAT                          
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL HAVE CEASED BY THAT POINT.                           
GFS/RUC SUGGEST LIMITED CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT AS                       
AMORPHOUS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER REGION. CANT RULE OUT                       
INTERMITTENT CLEARING...MAINLY IN OUR CENTRAL COUNTIES...BUT FIND               
IT CLIMATOLOGICALLY UNLIKELY IN THE JAMES/RED RIVER VALLEYS WITH                
LACK OF STRONG DRY OR COLD AIR ADVECTION. THUS WILL LIMIT                       
TEMPERATURE DROP OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL SEE                      
LIMITED RISE FROM JAMES VALLEY EAST EARLY DUE TO CONTINUED CLOUDS               
AND LIGHT WINDS DESPITE A WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME DEVELOPING                  
ALOFT. IN OUR CENTRAL COUNTIES WARMING TREND WILL BE MORE                       
PRONOUNCED DESPITE RECENT SNOW COVER. CURIOUS FEATURE DEVELOPS ON               
THE 290 THETA E SURFACE TOMORROW AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH.                
MAIN SUPPORT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WELL TO THE NORTHEAST IN                 
MN/ND WITH SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO...HOWEVER SINCE WE ARE                
UNABLE TO SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS/MOISTURE CANT RULE OUT LIGHT               
SNOW BUT NEED TO REITERATE THAT EVEN MINIMAL ACCUMULATION IS                    
UNLIKELY. MORE IMPORTANTLY...WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND TROUGH WILL                  
HELP MIX OUT COLD AIR IN THE JAMES VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY.                      
THEREFORE HAVE TRENDED A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR TOMORROWS               
HIGH.                                                                           
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY                                           
FORECAST CHALLENGES...SNOW WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AND               
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.                                               
THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR MID WEEK              
STILL APPEARS ON TRACK TO DROP SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE                  
CWA...PERHAPS MORE SO ACROSS THE NE CORNER OF THE CWA. BEHIND THE               
SYSTEM...STRONG WINDS AND STRONG CAA /AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN/               
WILL CREATE BLOWING SNOW AND WIND CHILL PROBLEMS. THE COLD AIR                  
SITS AROUND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE A WARM UP DEVELOPS FRIDAY                
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER BROAD UPPER TROF WILL SWEEP THROUGH                 
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE                   
MAINLY FLURRIES AND SOME LOW CLOUD COVER FOR THE WEEKEND INTO                   
EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LIGHT SNOW NOW EXITING THE SOUTHERN CWA...BUT AN AREA OF NEW                    
DEVELOPMENT NOW APPROACHING THE NORTHEASTERN CWA. WILL SEE OVC                  
CIGS BETWEEN 2500-5000 FEET MOST AREAS...WITH CLEARING TAKING                   
PLACE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CWA NOW. EXPECT THE CLEARING TO                    
CONTINUE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...BUT ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS AOA 8K                 
FEET WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING AROUND 08Z.                        
THEREFORE...ANY ONE LOCATION WILL LIKELY SEE THE MOSTLY CLEAR                   
SKIES FOR 3 TO 6 HOURS BEFORE THE NEXT DECK OF CLOUDS MOVES IN.                 
VSBYS WILL BE UNRESTRICTED...BUT MAY FALL TO AROUND 4SM IN THE                  
SNOW AREAS.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...PARKIN                                                                 
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY                                                           
LONG TERM...DORN                                                                
AVIATION...PARKIN                                                               
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN                                                            
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
620 PM CST MON FEB 11 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED DUE TO EXPIRATION OF SNOW ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN              
AND SOUTH CENTRAL CWA. ALSO LOWERED TEMPS FOR TONIGHT ACROSS THE                
WEST IN ANTICIPATION OF A PERIOD OF CLEARING LATER TONIGHT. NEW                 
AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT                                     
FOCUS THIS PERIOD IS ON NEAR TERM AS HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES IN A                  
BAND FROM SOUTH OF KABR TO NORTH OF KPIR. THIS FEATURE HAS SLOWLY               
DRIFTED SOUTHWARD FROM NORTH CENTRAL SD THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND HAS              
PRODUCED A SWATH OF 2 INCH SNOWFALL. SUPPORT FOR CONTINUED HEAVY                
SNOWFALL TO DIMINISH AND DRIFT SOUTHWARDS. WILL CONTINUE SNOW                   
ADVISORY INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH ANTICIPATION THAT                          
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL HAVE CEASED BY THAT POINT.                           
GFS/RUC SUGGEST LIMITED CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT AS                       
AMORPHOUS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER REGION. CANT RULE OUT                       
INTERMITTENT CLEARING...MAINLY IN OUR CENTRAL COUNTIES...BUT FIND               
IT CLIMATOLOGICALLY UNLIKELY IN THE JAMES/RED RIVER VALLEYS WITH                
LACK OF STRONG DRY OR COLD AIR ADVECTION. THUS WILL LIMIT                       
TEMPERATURE DROP OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL SEE                      
LIMITED RISE FROM JAMES VALLEY EAST EARLY DUE TO CONTINUED CLOUDS               
AND LIGHT WINDS DESPITE A WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME DEVELOPING                  
ALOFT. IN OUR CENTRAL COUNTIES WARMING TREND WILL BE MORE                       
PRONOUNCED DESPITE RECENT SNOW COVER. CURIOUS FEATURE DEVELOPS ON               
THE 290 THETA E SURFACE TOMORROW AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH.                
MAIN SUPPORT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WELL TO THE NORTHEAST IN                 
MN/ND WITH SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO...HOWEVER SINCE WE ARE                
UNABLE TO SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS/MOISTURE CANT RULE OUT LIGHT               
SNOW BUT NEED TO REITERATE THAT EVEN MINIMAL ACCUMULATION IS                    
UNLIKELY. MORE IMPORTANTLY...WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND TROUGH WILL                  
HELP MIX OUT COLD AIR IN THE JAMES VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY.                      
THEREFORE HAVE TRENDED A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR TOMORROWS               
HIGH.                                                                           
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY                                           
FORECAST CHALLENGES...SNOW WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AND               
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.                                               
THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR MID WEEK              
STILL APPEARS ON TRACK TO DROP SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE                  
CWA...PERHAPS MORE SO ACROSS THE NE CORNER OF THE CWA. BEHIND THE               
SYSTEM...STRONG WINDS AND STRONG CAA /AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN/               
WILL CREATE BLOWING SNOW AND WIND CHILL PROBLEMS. THE COLD AIR                  
SITS AROUND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE A WARM UP DEVELOPS FRIDAY                
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER BROAD UPPER TROF WILL SWEEP THROUGH                 
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE                   
MAINLY FLURRIES AND SOME LOW CLOUD COVER FOR THE WEEKEND INTO                   
EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 02Z ACROSS THE SOUTHERN                  
CWA...MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MISSION RIDGE TO WATERTOWN. CIGS              
WITH THE AREA OF SNOW WILL BE IN THE MVFR CATEGORY BETWEEN 2K AND               
3K FEET...BUT COULD BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY. THE REST                
OF THE AREA WILL SEE VFR CIGS BETWEEN 3500-6000 FEET. THE CWA MAY               
SEE SOME CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING AROUND 06Z...WITH                 
VFR CIGS AOA 8K FEET MOVING BACK IN BY MORNING.                                 
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...PARKIN                                                                 
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY                                                           
LONG TERM...DORN                                                                
AVIATION...PARKIN                                                               
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN                                                            
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
529 PM CST MON FEB 11 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED TO CANCEL SNOW ADVISORY IN NORTH CENTRAL ZONES.                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT                                     
FOCUS THIS PERIOD IS ON NEAR TERM AS HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES IN A                  
BAND FROM SOUTH OF KABR TO NORTH OF KPIR. THIS FEATURE HAS SLOWLY               
DRIFTED SOUTHWARD FROM NORTH CENTRAL SD THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND HAS              
PRODUCED A SWATH OF 2 INCH SNOWFALL. SUPPORT FOR CONTINUED HEAVY                
SNOWFALL TO DIMINISH AND DRIFT SOUTHWARDS. WILL CONTINUE SNOW                   
ADVISORY INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH ANTICIPATION THAT                          
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL HAVE CEASED BY THAT POINT.                           
GFS/RUC SUGGEST LIMITED CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT AS                       
AMORPHOUS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER REGION. CANT RULE OUT                       
INTERMITTENT CLEARING...MAINLY IN OUR CENTRAL COUNTIES...BUT FIND               
IT CLIMATOLOGICALLY UNLIKELY IN THE JAMES/RED RIVER VALLEYS WITH                
LACK OF STRONG DRY OR COLD AIR ADVECTION. THUS WILL LIMIT                       
TEMPERATURE DROP OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL SEE                      
LIMITED RISE FROM JAMES VALLEY EAST EARLY DUE TO CONTINUED CLOUDS               
AND LIGHT WINDS DESPITE A WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME DEVELOPING                  
ALOFT. IN OUR CENTRAL COUNTIES WARMING TREND WILL BE MORE                       
PRONOUNCED DESPITE RECENT SNOW COVER. CURIOUS FEATURE DEVELOPS ON               
THE 290 THETA E SURFACE TOMORROW AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH.                
MAIN SUPPORT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WELL TO THE NORTHEAST IN                 
MN/ND WITH SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO...HOWEVER SINCE WE ARE                
UNABLE TO SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS/MOISTURE CANT RULE OUT LIGHT SNOW          
BUT NEED TO REITERATE THAT EVEN MINIMAL ACCUMULATION IS UNLIKELY.               
MORE IMPORTANTLY...WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND TROUGH WILL HELP MIX OUT               
COLD AIR IN THE JAMES VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY. THEREFORE HAVE                    
TRENDED A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR TOMORROWS HIGH.                        
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY                                           
FORECAST CHALLENGES...SNOW WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AND               
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.                                               
THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR MID WEEK              
STILL APPEARS ON TRACK TO DROP SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE                  
CWA...PERHAPS MORE SO ACROSS THE NE CORNER OF THE CWA. BEHIND THE               
SYSTEM...STRONG WINDS AND STRONG CAA /AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN/               
WILL CREATE BLOWING SNOW AND WIND CHILL PROBLEMS. THE COLD AIR                  
SITS AROUND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE A WARM UP DEVELOPS FRIDAY                
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER BROAD UPPER TROF WILL SWEEP THROUGH                 
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE                   
MAINLY FLURRIES AND SOME LOW CLOUD COVER FOR THE WEEKEND INTO                   
EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS               
WITH A FEW HEAVIER BANDS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF KPIR TO JUST SOUTH               
OF KABR. MOST LOCATIONS NORTH OF THIS AREA OF INTENSE SNOW WILL SEE             
MVFR CIGS WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.                  
HEAVY SNOW WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND                         
EVENING...CAUSING SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN BOTH VSBY/CIGS. AT                  
THIS TIME...THE WORST CONDITIONS APPEAR TO REMAIN WEST OF                       
KATY...BUT WILL CONTINUE AT KPIR...WHICH IS NOT EXPECTED TO                     
IMPROVE MUCH THOUGH 00Z. ONCE THE HEAVY SNOW DRIFTS OUT OF THE                  
CWA...IMPROVEMENTS IN CIGS WILL FOLLOW.                                         
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR                 
     BUFFALO-FAULK-HAND-HUGHES-HYDE-JONES-LYMAN-POTTER-SPINK-                   
     STANLEY-SULLY.                                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...PARKIN                                                                 
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY                                                           
LONG TERM...DORN                                                                
AVIATION...CONNELLY                                                             
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN                                                            
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
346 PM CST MON FEB 11 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.                                        
FOCUS THIS PERIOD IS ON NEAR TERM AS HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES IN A                  
BAND FROM SOUTH OF KABR TO NORTH OF KPIR. THIS FEATURE HAS SLOWLY               
DRIFTED SOUTHWARD FROM NORTH CENTRAL SD THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND HAS              
PRODUCED A SWATH OF 2 INCH SNOWFALL. SUPPORT FOR CONTINUED HEAVY                
SNOWFALL TO DIMINISH AND DRIFT SOUTHWARDS. WILL CONTINUE SNOW                   
ADVISORY INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH ANTICIPATION THAT                          
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL HAVE CEASED BY THAT POINT.                           
GFS/RUC SUGGEST LIMITED CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT AS                       
AMORPHOUS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER REGION. CANT RULE OUT                       
INTERMITTENT CLEARING...MAINLY IN OUR CENTRAL COUNTIES...BUT FIND               
IT CLIMATOLOGICALLY UNLIKELY IN THE JAMES/RED RIVER VALLEYS WITH                
LACK OF STRONG DRY OR COLD AIR ADVECTION. THUS WILL LIMIT                       
TEMPERATURE DROP OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL SEE                      
LIMITED RISE FROM JAMES VALLEY EAST EARLY DUE TO CONTINUED CLOUDS               
AND LIGHT WINDS DESPITE A WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME DEVELOPING                  
ALOFT. IN OUR CENTRAL COUNTIES WARMING TREND WILL BE MORE                       
PRONOUNCED DESPITE RECENT SNOW COVER. CURIOUS FEATURE DEVELOPS ON               
THE 290 THETA E SURFACE TOMORROW AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH.                
MAIN SUPPORT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WELL TO THE NORTHEAST IN                 
MN/ND WITH SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO...HOWEVER SINCE WE ARE                
UNABLE TO SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS/MOISTURE CANT RULE OUT LIGHT SNOW          
BUT NEED TO REITERATE THAT EVEN MINIMAL ACCUMULATION IS UNLIKELY.               
MORE IMPORTANTLY...WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND TROUGH WILL HELP MIX OUT               
COLD AIR IN THE JAMES VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY. THEREFORE HAVE                    
TRENDED A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR TOMORROWS HIGH.                        
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY                                           
FORECAST CHALLENGES...SNOW WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AND               
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.                                               
THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR MID WEEK              
STILL APPEARS ON TRACK TO DROP SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE                  
CWA...PERHAPS MORE SO ACROSS THE NE CORNER OF THE CWA. BEHIND THE               
SYSTEM...STRONG WINDS AND STRONG CAA /AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN/               
WILL CREATE BLOWING SNOW AND WIND CHILL PROBLEMS. THE COLD AIR                  
SITS AROUND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE A WARM UP DEVELOPS FRIDAY                
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER BROAD UPPER TROF WILL SWEEP THROUGH                 
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE                   
MAINLY FLURRIES AND SOME LOW CLOUD COVER FOR THE WEEKEND INTO                   
EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS               
WITH A FEW HEAVIER BANDS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF KPIR TO JUST SOUTH               
OF KABR. MOST LOCATIONS NORTH OF THIS AREA OF INTENSE SNOW WILL SEE             
MVFR CIGS WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.                  
HEAVY SNOW WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND                         
EVENING...CAUSING SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN BOTH VISBY/CIGS. AT                 
THIS TIME...THE WORST CONDITIONS APPEAR TO REMAIN WEST OF                       
KATY...BUT WILL CONTINUE AT KPIR...WHICH IS NOT EXPECTED TO                     
IMPROVE MUCH THOUGH 00Z. ONCE THE HEAVY SNOW DRIFTS OUT OF THE                  
CWA...IMPROVEMENTS IN CIGS WILL FOLLOW.                                         
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR                 
     BUFFALO-CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HUGHES-                   
     HYDE-JONES-LYMAN-MCPHERSON-POTTER-SPINK-STANLEY-SULLY-                     
     WALWORTH.                                                                  
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY                                                           
LONG TERM...DORN                                                                
AVIATION...CONNELLY                                                             
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN                                                            
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
937 AM CST MON FEB 11 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
INHERITED FORECAST THIS MORNING IS SPOT ON SO NOT MUCH TO DISCUSS               
IN THE UPDATE. MESO FEATURE MOVING FROM THE BLACK HILLS INTO                    
CENTRAL SD. ADDITIONAL 2 INCHES REPORTED AT FAITH...WHICH                       
SUPPORTS GOING FORECAST OF UPWARDS OF 3 INCHES FROM SULLY CO SOUTH              
TO THE WHITE RIVER. RUC PICKS UP FEATURE IN H7 OMEGA                            
FIELD...ALTHOUGH A LITTLE FAST IN PROPAGATION SPEED...AND MOVES IT              
INTO FSD CWA BY BETWEEN 18 AND 21Z. SECOND AREA OF NOTE IS NEAR                 
KMBG...WHICH RUC ALSO IDENTIFIES...SENDING IT ON A SOUTHEAST                    
TRAJECTORY ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL CW...ROUGHLY FROM KMBG TO KHON.              
WATER PLANT AT KMBG HAS REPORTED ADDITIONAL HALF INCH BY                        
930AM...THOUGH SNOW STILL REMAINS HEAVY AT THIS TIME. THINKING                  
1 TO 2 INCH ACCUMULATION WITH THIS FEATURE POSSIBLE.                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY                                           
MODELS AGREE PRETTY WELL ON THIS PERIOD. CONCERNS THIS TIME ARE                 
WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES AND SNOW FALL AMOUNTS. AT THIS TIME THE                 
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH THE STRONG COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST. THE              
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT FOLLOWED IT IN AND PRODUCED THE               
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS HAS MOVED INTO MINNESOTA. THE NEXT CLIPPER               
SYSTEM IS IN MONTANA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH INTO WESTERN                 
SOUTH DAKOTA. A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS DEVELOPED                   
BETWEEN THE RETREATING HIGH AND THE ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.              
THIS STRONG GRADIENT IS ALLOWING STRONG SOUTHEAST WIND TO BING                  
WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN                 
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA ARE REPORTING SNOW              
AS WARM AIR OVER RUNS COLD ARCTIC SURFACE AIR. THIS WIND WILL                   
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY              
AND DIMINISH. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS SOUTH IT WILL REMAIN WEST OF            
HERE. AN OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE IS STILL LINGERING IN THE AREA AND                 
WILL END UP ORIENTED EAST WEST IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BY THIS                  
AFTERNOON. AT THIS SAME TIME A SHARP H5 TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE                
REGION AND FINALLY DRAWS OFF TO THE EAST BY TOMORROW MORNING. IT                
APPEARS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ABLE TO DRAW MOISTURE UP FROM THE              
SOUTH AND WITH THE HELP OF THE OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE ABLE TO              
DROP SOME PRETTY GOOD SNOW. ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART                
OF THE STATE THE BUF KIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SATURATED AIR THROUGH                
THE DENDRITIC LAYER AND VERY PRONOUNCED LIFT FOR SEVERAL HOURS                  
DURING THIS PERIOD. GFS ALSO CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD FRONTOGENETIC               
FORCING IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA. SO WITH THIS HAVE MADE FEW                    
CHANGES TO GOING GRIDS WHICH ADVERTISE ADVISORY SNOWFALL TODAY.                 
ALSO THE COMBINATION OF LOW TEMPERATURES AND STRONG SOUTH WINDS                 
WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL READING BELOW -20F. SO WILL CONTINUE THE                
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH TODAY FOR WIND CHILLS ESPECIALLY                
THIS MORNING AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES.                        
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY                                     
PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST QUANDARIES. 00Z MODEL RUNS         
REMAIN QUITE SIMILAR WITH OVERALL MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN THROUGH                
THE PERIOD. ONCE AGAIN ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE NEAR THE               
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST AND AMPLIFY OVER THE                  
CENTRAL CONUS. TWO SUCH SYSTEMS LOOK TO PLAY OUT DURING THIS TIME               
PERIOD. ONE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AND ANOTHER FOR                 
THE COMING WEEKEND. UNLIKE TODAYS SYSTEM...THE TRACK OF THE                     
SURFACE LOW FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY SUGGESTS THAT THE                 
BEST POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL BE OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND               
MINNESOTA. THIS IS ALSO DISPLAYED SIMILARLY IN THE QPF FIELDS FROM              
BOTH GFS/ECMWF. BEHIND THE SYSTEM COLD AIR ONCE AGAIN FILTERS                   
SOUTH OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE NOT                  
QUITE AS COLD AS PREVIOUS RUNS. BUT...FOR THE MOST PART ONLY MADE MINOR         
CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS. IT APPEARS THAT THE RECENTLY PROGRESSIVE      
MID LEVEL PATTERN MAY SLOW UP TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AND                  
BECOME MORE MERIDIONAL AS A POSITIVE PNA PATTERN TAKES SHAPE OVER               
THE CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY BRING MORE COLD AIR INTO THE                
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS AFTER 168 HOURS.                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS            
WITH A HEAVIER BAND OF SNOWFALL OVER AND SOUTH OF KPIR. THIS IS                 
RESULTING IN MAINLY MVFR CIGS WITH INTERMITTENT IFR UNDER POCKETS               
OF SNOW...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS EVENING. VISBY WILL                 
FOLLOW THE SAME TREND W/ EXCEPTION TO POINTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A               
KPIR TO KHON LINE WHERE IFR VISBY WILL BE MORE COMMON DUE TO A                  
LOCALIZED AREA OF HEAVY SNOWS. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE                       
SOUTHEAST AND DEPART THE CWA BY MID AFTERNOON. SECOND AREA OF                   
HEAVY SNOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OF KMBG BY NOON.                                     
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS AFTERNOON           
     FOR BROWN-BUFFALO-CAMPBELL-CLARK-CODINGTON-CORSON-DAY-DEUEL-               
     DEWEY-EDMUNDS-FAULK-GRANT-HAMLIN-HAND-HUGHES-HYDE-JONES-                   
     LYMAN-MARSHALL-MCPHERSON-POTTER-ROBERTS-SPINK-STANLEY-SULLY-               
     WALWORTH.                                                                  
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR BIG              
     STONE-TRAVERSE.                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...CONNELLY                                                               
SHORT TERM...KEEFE                                                              
LONG TERM...TMT                                                                 
AVIATION...TMT                                                                  
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN                                                            
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN                                           
342 PM CST TUE FEB 12 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NOW MAKING ITS WAY EAST OF THE MS RIVER. THE              
BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE MID                
STATE AND EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS EASTERN AR AND MUCH OF MO. SCT                
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE FALLING ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE NW TWO              
THIRDS OF MO.                                                                   
12Z MODEL DATA NOT MUCH HELP WITH THE FCST OVERNIGHT.                           
HOWEVER...RUC AND NAM 18Z SOLUTIONS SHOWING THAT THE PRECIP OVER                
WESTERN KY AND POINTS WEST SHOULD MOVE ACROSS MIDDLE TN OVERNIGHT.              
MEANWHILE...COLDER AIR IS BEGINNING TO SPILL INTO NW SECTIONS OF                
THE MID STATE. CKV SAW A 15 DEGREE DROP AS THE FRONT PUSHED THOUGH              
AROUND 2 PM. THEY ARE CURRENTLY AT 34 DEGREES.                                  
SHOULD SEE THE FREEZING LINE SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. THIS                
WILL CREATE A MIXTURE OF RAIN...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.                        
ADDITIONALLY...AS THE DEEPER COLDER AIR MOVES IN SOME LIGHT SNOW                
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.                                                  
WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ROUGHLY THE               
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE MID STATE. ICE AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS               
WILL AVERAGE AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. TRAVEL PROBLEMS WILL                  
LIKELY DEVELOP AS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE MID 20S                
FOR MANY AREAS.                                                                 
AREAS ALONG THE PLATEAU WILL SEE THE FREEZING PRECIP HOLD OFF                   
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRECIP SHOULD END OVER THE PLATEAU BY SUNRISE.            
LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON                   
WEDNESDAY. THEN IT LOOKS AS THOUGH PARTIAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR IN               
THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE RATHER COLD AS THE MERCURY STRUGGLE TO                
REACH THE MID 30S.                                                              
SFC HIGH BUILDS IN WED NT BUT DEW POINTS WILL NOT BE TOO TERRIBLY               
LOW. HENCE...LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 20-25 DEGREE RANGE.                     
FOR NEAR TERM TEMPS...CLOUDS MAY HANG ON OVER THE PLATEAU ON WED SO             
I WILL UNDERCUT THE 34 FOR CSV. WED NT...SFC HIGH IS VERY CLOSE TO              
THE MID STATE ON 12Z THU. THUS...I WILL UNDERCUT THE 26 LOW AT BNA.             
IN THE EXT FCST...NEXT STORM SYSTEM COMES BACK AT US ON FRIDAY IN               
THE FORM OF A SFC LOW WHICH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.                
PRECIP LOOKS GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS TN BUT TEMPS MAY SUPPORT RAIN OR            
SNOW FOR FRI NT.                                                                
THEN ANOTHER...AND POTENTIALLY MORE POTENT WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM                
ATTEMPTS TO REAR ITS HEAD ON SUNDAY. ITS STILL A GOOD 5 DAYS OFF BUT            
BEARS WATCHING AS THIS SYSTEM MAY CARRY A CLOSED UPPER LOW WITH                 
FAVORABLE CYCLOGENESIS ON ITS EASTERN OR SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY.                
FOR NOW...WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW FOR SUNDAY...AND                
THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR SUN NT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS 850 MB            
TEMPS DROP WELL BELOW 0C.                                                       
FOR EXT TEMPS...WILL UNDERCUT HIGHS FOR SUN THROUGH TUES.                       
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
NASHVILLE      25  34  23  52 /  60  10   0   0                                 
CLARKSVILLE    22  34  23  52 /  60  10   0   0                                 
CROSSVILLE     27  31  22  49 /  70  10   0   0                                 
COLUMBIA       27  36  23  54 /  60  10   0   0                                 
LAWRENCEBURG   28  37  23  54 /  50  10   0   0                                 
WAVERLY        24  36  24  53 /  60  10   0   0                                 
&&                                                                              
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR TNZ005>011-                
022>034-056>060-062>066.                                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
21                                                                              
</pre> tn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN                                          
900 PM EST MON FEB 11 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...NO CHANGES. LATEST RUC MODEL KEEPS BAND OF PRECIP                 
WELL TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE FIRST PERIOD. HOWEVER...RADAR MOSAIC              
SHOWS LIGHT RETURNS UNCOMFORTABLY CLOSE TO THE TN/KY BORDER. AS                 
SUCH AM RELUCTANT TO REMOVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN OUR NORTHERN TIER             
ZONES. REMAINDER OF FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES                    
WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             37  62  36  42  26 /  10  50  90  10  10    
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  34  59  35  39  22 /  10  50 100  30  10    
OAK RIDGE, TN                       34  57  34  39  22 /  10  50  90  30  10    
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              29  57  36  37  22 /  10  50 100  40  10    
&&                                                                              
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
TN...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LCM                                                                             
</pre> tn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX                                   
120 PM CST TUE FEB 12 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SENDING OUT AN UPDATE TO DROP MOST OF THE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.              
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BAYS...AND GULF               
WATERS.                                                                         
40                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 AM CST TUE FEB 12 2008/                        
UPDATE...                                                                       
AT 15Z THE BEST DYNAMICS WERE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST                  
AREA. A 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND THE 12Z NAM AND RUC MODELS                   
INDICATE STILL A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS THE LINE OF                  
STORMS PUSHES THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.              
ONE FAVORABLE FACTOR IS THE TEMPERATURES NEAR 70 AND DEWPOINTS IN               
THE UPPER 60S NUDGING NORTHWARD FROM THE MATAGORDA BAY AREA. THE                
UPPER JET STRUCTURE FAVORS THE BEST AREA FOR ISOLATED SEVERE                    
STORMS TO BE MORE OVER THE FAR EASTERN SET OF COUNTIES...MAINLY                 
EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR.                 
CURRENTLY THE RADAR INDICATES A SLIGHT BOWING OF THE LINE OF                    
STORMS PUSHING ACROSS WALLER...MONTGOMERY...AND FAR NORTHWESTERN                
HARRIS COUNTIES. HOWEVER...MOST AREAS WILL SEE MAINLY SHOWERS AND               
THUNDERSTORMS.                                                                  
FOR NOW WILL ISSUE AN UPDATE FOR TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE                       
PARAMETERS. OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOR THE                 
WEATHER AND POP GRIDS.                                                          
40                                                                              
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CST TUE FEB 12 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE BOW ECHO ACROSS THE COASTAL               
PLAIN OF THE UPPER TX COAST HAS PUSHED INTO THE NORTHERN GULF.                  
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH                   
EAST WITH A STRONG 120KT 300MB JET DIVING INTO IT OVER THE                      
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE SHORTWAVE MAY DIG A BIT BUT THE JET WILL                  
SERVE TO HELP PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. SFC OBS               
AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THE FRONT MAINLY FROM A KBWD TO                 
KOSA LINE. CONVECTION IS FILLING IN NICELY ALL ALONG IT. A FEW                  
CELLS MAY BECOME SEVERE LATER THIS MORNING.                                     
THE MAIN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT APPEARS TO BE DURING THE LATE               
MORNING HOURS WHERE THERE HAS BEEN SOME HEATING AHEAD OF THE                    
FRONT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR MODERATE CAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG TO                    
DEVELOP BY 15Z THIS MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH DEEP LAYER                  
SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40KTS OR SO FOR STORMS TO ORGANIZE ALONG                  
THE FRONT...POSSIBLY A FEW BOWS WHICH WILL HEIGHTEN THE DAMAGING                
WIND THREAT. A FEW STORMS MAY ROTATE IF SFC FLOW STAYS BACKED                   
ENOUGH BUT STILL THINK GIVEN THE LINEAR FORCING OF THE FRONT THAT               
AN ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE WILL BE LIKELY CONVECTIVE MODE. FRONT                  
SHOULD REACH THE COAST BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z AND OUT OF THE COASTAL               
WATERS BY 00Z.                                                                  
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK SHOULD DRY OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING               
OVER THE AREA WED AND SHIFTING EAST. RETURN FLOW SHOULD SET UP ON               
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS IS WHERE THE CHALLENGING PART OF THE                 
FORECAST BEGINS. THE 06Z NAM AND 00Z GFS/ECMWF BRING A COLD FRONT               
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OVER THE                 
GREAT BASIN AND 4 CORNERS REGION ON THURSDAY SETTING UP STRONG                  
WSW FLOW ALOFT. THIS UPPER TROUGH BECOMES CLOSED OFF FROM THE                   
FLOW AND SLOWLY EDGES EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. STRONG                    
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER MUCH OF TX WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT                  
OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. DECIDED THAT A               
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SHOULD THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY                  
EDGE NORTH A LITTLE BIT AND OPEN THE WARM SECTOR UP OVER SE TX.                 
ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN A SHALLOW COLD                  
AIRMASS. THE 00Z ECMWF SUGGESTS THIS POSSIBILITY. THE 00Z GFS IS                
A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH THAN THE ECMWF. IT                    
BRINGS THE TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA LATE SAT INTO SUN WITH HEAVY                 
RAIN. CONDITIONS CLEAR OUT SUN AFTERNOON. THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER               
WITH IT CLEARING OUT SUN NIGHT INTO MON. LOOKING AT THE 00Z GFS                 
ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ITS MEMBERS...WILL STICK MORE TO THE                          
POSSIBILITY OF A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH. AGREE THAT                   
BULK OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR FRI/SAT AND WILL BUMP POPS UP TO 60                 
PERCENT DURING THIS TIME. FOR NOW WITH THE EVENT STILL SEVERAL                  
DAYS AHEAD...30 POPS FOR SUN LOOK REASONABLE BEFORE CLEARING POPS               
ON MON. IT IS A BIT DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN THE DETAILS OF THE                   
EVENT BUT THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK AHEAD OF               
THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...THIS SCENARIO LOOKS LIKE A GOOD HEAVY                    
RAINFALL EVENT AND BEARS WATCHING. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BRING                   
ABOUT 1.5 INCHES OF PWAT INTO THE UPPER TX COAST AND GALVESTON                  
BAY. WITH ALL THE STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...UPPER                 
LEVEL DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE...POSSIBLE FOR SOME AREAS TO SEE                    
QUITE A BIT OF RAINFALL.                                                        
OVERPECK/39                                                                     
AVIATION...                                                                     
STILL EXPECTING A LOW DECK TO FORM BY SUNRISE AS MOISTURE CONTINUES             
TO STREAM INTO THE AREA. THINGS SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID-MORNING AHEAD             
OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD CLL BETWEEN 15-16Z...IAH AROUND               
18Z AND GLS AROUND 20Z. WILL CARRY PREVAILING TSRA WITH THE FROPA               
AND ADD WIND GUSTS. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL               
LEAN TOWARD THE SLOWER CLEARING AS OFFERED BY THE NAM. MAINLY VFR               
OVERNIGHT. 43                                                                   
MARINE...                                                                       
EXPECT THE NEXT FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LINE OF SHOWERS AND                        
THUNDERSTORMS TO PUSH OFF THE COAST BETWEEN 1 PM AND 3 PM. WILL                 
MENTION SEVERE IN THE MARINE TEXT. MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW             
WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. WINDS/SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH            
WED AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA. ONSHORE FLOW RESUMES WED                 
NIGHT...INCREASES THURS...THEN ANOTHER FRONT AND ASSOCIATED STORMS              
FRI AFTN OR EVNG. PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH                
HOLDS THE WIND SHIFT BACK UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. 43                                
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      67  36  65  48  71 /  80  10   0  10  10             
HOUSTON (IAH)              69  39  64  46  71 /  80  10   0  10  10             
GALVESTON (GLS)            68  45  60  53  68 /  70  10   0  10  10             
&&                                                                              
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM CST                  
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...                        
     MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP                 
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE                       
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND                 
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO                       
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.                                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...40                                                                 
AVIATION/MARINE...47                                                            
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX                                   
1006 AM CST TUE FEB 12 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
AT 15Z THE BEST DYNAMICS WERE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST                  
AREA. A 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND THE 12Z NAM AND RUC MODELS                   
INDICATE STILL A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS THE LINE OF                  
STORMS PUSHES THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.              
ONE FAVORABLE FACTOR IS THE TEMPERATURES NEAR 70 AND DEWPOINTS IN               
THE UPPER 60S NUDGING NORTHWARD FROM THE MATAGORDA BAY AREA. THE                
UPPER JET STRUCTURE FAVORS THE BEST AREA FOR ISOLATED SEVERE                    
STORMS TO BE MORE OVER THE FAR EASTERN SET OF COUNTIES...MAINLY                 
EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR.                 
CURRENTLY THE RADAR INDICATES A SLIGHT BOWING OF THE LINE OF                    
STORMS PUSHING ACROSS WALLER...MONTGOMERY...AND FAR NORTHWESTERN                
HARRIS COUNTIES. HOWEVER...MOST AREAS WILL SEE MAINLY SHOWERS AND               
THUNDERSTORMS.                                                                  
FOR NOW WILL ISSUE AN UPDATE FOR TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE                       
PARAMETERS. OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOR THE                 
WEATHER AND POP GRIDS.                                                          
40                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CST TUE FEB 12 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE BOW ECHO ACROSS THE COASTAL               
PLAIN OF THE UPPER TX COAST HAS PUSHED INTO THE NORTHERN GULF.                  
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH                   
EAST WITH A STRONG 120KT 300MB JET DIVING INTO IT OVER THE                      
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE SHORTWAVE MAY DIG A BIT BUT THE JET WILL                  
SERVE TO HELP PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. SFC OBS               
AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THE FRONT MAINLY FROM A KBWD TO                 
KOSA LINE. CONVECTION IS FILLING IN NICELY ALL ALONG IT. A FEW                  
CELLS MAY BECOME SEVERE LATER THIS MORNING.                                     
THE MAIN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT APPEARS TO BE DURING THE LATE               
MORNING HOURS WHERE THERE HAS BEEN SOME HEATING AHEAD OF THE                    
FRONT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR MODERATE CAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG TO                    
DEVELOP BY 15Z THIS MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH DEEP LAYER                  
SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40KTS OR SO FOR STORMS TO ORGANIZE ALONG                  
THE FRONT...POSSIBLY A FEW BOWS WHICH WILL HEIGHTEN THE DAMAGING                
WIND THREAT. A FEW STORMS MAY ROTATE IF SFC FLOW STAYS BACKED                   
ENOUGH BUT STILL THINK GIVEN THE LINEAR FORCING OF THE FRONT THAT               
AN ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE WILL BE LIKELY CONVECTIVE MODE. FRONT                  
SHOULD REACH THE COAST BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z AND OUT OF THE COASTAL               
WATERS BY 00Z.                                                                  
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK SHOULD DRY OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING               
OVER THE AREA WED AND SHIFTING EAST. RETURN FLOW SHOULD SET UP ON               
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS IS WHERE THE CHALLENGING PART OF THE                 
FORECAST BEGINS. THE 06Z NAM AND 00Z GFS/ECMWF BRING A COLD FRONT               
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OVER THE                 
GREAT BASIN AND 4 CORNERS REGION ON THURSDAY SETTING UP STRONG                  
WSW FLOW ALOFT. THIS UPPER TROUGH BECOMES CLOSED OFF FROM THE                   
FLOW AND SLOWLY EDGES EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. STRONG                    
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER MUCH OF TX WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT                  
OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. DECIDED THAT A               
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SHOULD THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY                  
EDGE NORTH A LITTLE BIT AND OPEN THE WARM SECTOR UP OVER SE TX.                 
ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN A SHALLOW COLD                  
AIRMASS. THE 00Z ECMWF SUGGESTS THIS POSSIBILITY. THE 00Z GFS IS                
A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH THAN THE ECMWF. IT                    
BRINGS THE TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA LATE SAT INTO SUN WITH HEAVY                 
RAIN. CONDITIONS CLEAR OUT SUN AFTERNOON. THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER               
WITH IT CLEARING OUT SUN NIGHT INTO MON. LOOKING AT THE 00Z GFS                 
ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ITS MEMBERS...WILL STICK MORE TO THE                          
POSSIBILITY OF A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH. AGREE THAT                   
BULK OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR FRI/SAT AND WILL BUMP POPS UP TO 60                 
PERCENT DURING THIS TIME. FOR NOW WITH THE EVENT STILL SEVERAL                  
DAYS AHEAD...30 POPS FOR SUN LOOK REASONABLE BEFORE CLEARING POPS               
ON MON. IT IS A BIT DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN THE DETAILS OF THE                   
EVENT BUT THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK AHEAD OF               
THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...THIS SCENARIO LOOKS LIKE A GOOD HEAVY                    
RAINFALL EVENT AND BEARS WATCHING. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BRING                   
ABOUT 1.5 INCHES OF PWAT INTO THE UPPER TX COAST AND GALVESTON                  
BAY. WITH ALL THE STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...UPPER                 
LEVEL DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE...POSSIBLE FOR SOME AREAS TO SEE                    
QUITE A BIT OF RAINFALL.                                                        
OVERPECK/39                                                                     
AVIATION...                                                                     
STILL EXPECTING A LOW DECK TO FORM BY SUNRISE AS MOISTURE CONTINUES             
TO STREAM INTO THE AREA. THINGS SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID-MORNING AHEAD             
OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD CLL BETWEEN 15-16Z...IAH AROUND               
18Z AND GLS AROUND 20Z. WILL CARRY PREVAILING TSRA WITH THE FROPA               
AND ADD WIND GUSTS. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL               
LEAN TOWARD THE SLOWER CLEARING AS OFFERED BY THE NAM. MAINLY VFR               
OVERNIGHT. 43                                                                   
MARINE...                                                                       
EXPECT THE NEXT FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LINE OF SHOWERS AND                        
THUNDERSTORMS TO PUSH OFF THE COAST BETWEEN 1 PM AND 3 PM. WILL                 
MENTION SEVERE IN THE MARINE TEXT. MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW             
WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. WINDS/SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH            
WED AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA. ONSHORE FLOW RESUMES WED                 
NIGHT...INCREASES THURS...THEN ANOTHER FRONT AND ASSOCIATED STORMS              
FRI AFTN OR EVNG. PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH                
HOLDS THE WIND SHIFT BACK UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. 43                                
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      65  36  65  48  71 /  80  10   0  10  10             
HOUSTON (IAH)              69  39  64  46  71 /  80  10   0  10  10             
GALVESTON (GLS)            68  45  60  53  68 /  80  10   0  10  10             
&&                                                                              
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM CST                  
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...                        
     MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP                 
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE                       
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND                 
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO                       
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.                                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...40                                                                 
AVIATION/MARINE...47                                                            
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX                                         
906 AM CST TUE FEB 12 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES INDICATE SHOWERS AND                   
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF DEEP                
SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO THIS MORNING. RUC80 200MB                      
WIND SPEED ANALYSIS INDICATED RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF A STRONG JET              
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH TX AND THIS IS PROVIDING Q-VECTOR                  
CONVERGENCE NOT ONLY FOR THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOWER RIO                    
GRANDE VALLEY BUT THE STRONGER LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH                
EAST TX AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MAIN QUESTION TODAY IS THE EXTENT              
OF THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST TEXAS WILL MOVE            
ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND POTENTIAL               
FOR SEVERE WEATHER. IT APPEARS THE LOW LEVEL JET PROGGED BY THE                 
NAM80 ACROSS THE LOWER TX COAST IS BEING INHIBITED BY THE                       
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO. LAPS SURFACE ANALYSIS                       
INDICATED LIFTING INDICES OF -4 TO -5 ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX. WARMER              
850MB TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS MAY PROVIDE A WEAK              
CAP TODAY. BELIEVE AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER SOUTH...THE CAP                   
SHOULD ERODE ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. WITH              
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON...BELIEVE                    
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO                    
DEVELOP SO WILL MENTION GUSTY WINDS WITH SOME STORMS MAINLY IN THE              
AFTERNOON. HAVE ALREADY UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES TO INCREASE POPS                    
MAINLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE                 
DEVELOPMENT OF THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST                
TX MOVING SOUTHWARD AND IF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS                 
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...PREVAIL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24                 
HOURS WITH TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS IN CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY SHOWERS OR                
THUNDERSTORMS.  WINDS WILL BE MODERATE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TODAY                 
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.                  
MODERATE NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD               
FRONT.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...AT 8AM BUOY020 REPORTED SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 12                
TO 14 KNOTS AND SEAS 4.6 FEET WITH AN 8 SECOND PERIOD. WINDS AND                
SEAS ARE STILL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE COLD FRONT              
IS PRESENTLY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND WILL NOT MOVE THROUGH THE                   
COASTAL WATERS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS UNTIL AT LEAST 6 PM TONIGHT.                 
THEREFORE WILL NOT BEGIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM                    
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL NOT QUITE REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA               
OVER THE LAGUNA SO WILL DROP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THAT                  
AREA AT THIS TIME. WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MIDNIGHT                
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST. WINDS LATER IN THE                 
WEEK WILL BE GUSTY IN RESPONSE TO A SECOND APPROACHING COLD FRONT.              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CST TUE FEB 12 2008/                         
THE VALLEY CAN EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND                            
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN SATURDAY.                      
THE COMBINATION OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS                 
NORTHERN MEXICO AND A COLD FRONT HEADING SOUTH SHOULD PROVIDE A                 
SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION TODAY. ALTHOUGH 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE WAS              
BEARISH IN THE POSSIBILITIES WENT SLIGHT HIGHER. POINT OF INTEREST              
IN THE GUIDANCE IS THAT ALTHOUGH POPS ARE LOW THE CONDITIONAL                   
PROBABILITY OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS 40 TO 60 PERCENT. WONT                  
MENTION SEVERE IN THE ZFP BUT WILL PLAY IT UP IN THE HWO. THE COLD              
FRONT IS CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND IS ON TRACK                
TO PUSH OFF SHORE BY SUNSET THIS EVENING. RAIN CHANCES ENDING WEST              
TO EAST WITH DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER TO FOLLOW THE FRONTAL                     
PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A                  
PLEASANT DAY IN STORE.                                                          
RETURN FLOW STARTS UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PICKS UP THURSDAY AS THE              
NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. HERE IS                 
WHEN IT GETS INTERESTING. UPPER LOW TO SETTLE OVER THE DESERT SW                
AND WEST TEXAS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. DIFFERENCE ON TIMING                       
CONTINUES WITH THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BUT ALL OF THEM CONTINUE TO              
SHOW A SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION WITH THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH                
AS WELL AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. UPDATED FORECAST INDICATES                
THE FRONT TO MOVE OFFSHORE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN AND DRIZZLE              
TO INCREASE BY SATURDAY MORNING. AN ALL DAY RAIN DRIZZLE EVENT IS               
POSSIBLE SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW SITTING OVER WEST TEXAS AND                
A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COOL AND                    
POSSIBLY COOLER THEN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WHICH IS CURRENTLY                
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME HAVE THE SYSTEM EJECTING NE                 
SUNDAY AM WITH POPS ENDING AND TEMPS RECOVERING. IF HOWEVER...THE               
SYSTEM TRENDS EVEN SLOWER THE RAIN...DRIZZLE AND COOL TEMPS COULD               
LINGER INTO SUNDAY.                                                             
AVIATION...AREA WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10KTS THIS MORNING...WITH CLOUD             
COVER LIMITED TO MIDLEVEL CIRRUS. WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC ARE RUNNING            
35 TO 40KTS FROM 1-3KFT. WILL UPDATE TAFS FOR SHEAR. FOG STARTING TO            
FORM HBV/BKS/EBG AND OTHER OUTLYING AREAS...AND SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE              
INTO OTHER AIRPORTS BEFORE DAWN. FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER                
SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL START THE DAY...BUT SOME LOWER CIGS ARE            
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT ARRIVES AFTER 3PM. WINDS WILL            
QUICKLY SWITCH TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY               
CLEAR OVERNIGHT.                                                                
MARINE...AT 2AM BUOY020 REPORTED SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 14KTS AND SEAS              
5.5 FEET WITH AN 8 SECOND PERIOD. SEAS AREA ALREADY HIGHER AS                   
MODERATE AND LONGER FETCH SOUTHEAST WINDS PUSH HIGHER WAVES INTO THE            
NORTHWEST GULF. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS              
BETWEEN NOON AND 6PM TODAY...SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NORTH AND                   
REACHING 25 KNOTS SUSTAINED. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ON             
THE GULF AND LAGUNA THIS MORNING...WITH ADVISORIES ALREADY POSTED               
BEGINNING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST BY            
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST. WINDS LATER IN            
THE WEEK WILL BE GUSTY IN RESPONSE TO A SECOND APPROACHING COLD                 
FRONT. LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE STILL DIFFERING ON TIMING. HAVE GONE             
WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION...WITH THE FRONT REACHING LATE                  
FRIDAY. ADVISORIES WILL AGAIN BE NEEDED.                                        
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  53  71  57 /  40  20   0   0                           
BROWNSVILLE          82  54  75  57 /  40  20   0   0                           
HARLINGEN            83  52  76  54 /  40  20   0   0                           
MCALLEN              85  52  76  54 /  40  10   0   0                           
RIO GRANDE CITY      84  48  75  53 /  30  10   0   0                           
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   77  55  69  59 /  40  30   0   0                           
&&                                                                              
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 12 PM CST                 
     WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.                              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:                                   
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE                                              
PUBLIC/GRIDS...61                                                               
MARINE/AVIATION...65                                                            
MESO...CAMPBELL                                                                 
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
808 PM CST MON FEB 11 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...MADE SOME COSMETIC CHANGES TO THE VARIOUS GRIDDED                     
PARAMETERS TONIGHT. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE NEAR-               
TERM TEMPERATURES AND SKY GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.               
MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE NOCTURNAL POPS TO REFLECT NIL TO CLOSE                 
TO NIL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...PREVIOUS FORECAST                  
TRENDS ON TRACK AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED.                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 541 PM CST MON FEB 11 2008/                         
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING WILL                  
DETERIORATE TO LIFR/VLIFR VSBYS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE INLAND                
SECTIONS OF THE COASTAL BEND. ONLY MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED OVER                  
KLRD AND IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER KCRP AROUND SUNRISE. A COLD               
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING              
HOURS AND SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THERE COULD BE                      
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT...MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY                 
16. VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND                
THE FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.                   
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 PM CST MON FEB 11 2008/                          
SHORT TERM...TWO MAIN FEATURES OF INTEREST OVER THE SHORT TERM.                 
THE FIRST IS AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IN PROGRESS ACROSS SOUTH                    
TEXAS. FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES ALOFT HAVE ALLOWED CONVECTION TO                   
TRIGGER...MAINLY IN A RELATIVELY COOL POOL ALOFT AS PER HOURLY RUC              
GRAPHICS. SOME CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY INITIATED FURTHER                        
SOUTHWEST...ALONG AN APPARENT BACK EDGE TO USABLE LIFT AS PER 88D               
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY.                                                          
EXPECT SOME CLEARING THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER                      
LOW...AND WITH CONTINUING HIGH BLYR MOISTURE FOG FORMATION IS                   
AGAIN FAVORED TONIGHT.                                                          
A MUCH STRONGER BOUNDARY WORKS THROUGH THE REGION ON                            
TUESDAY. DECENT DYNAMICS AND RELATIVELY HIGH PWATS SHOULD TRIGGER               
HIGH COVERAGE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE               
NORTHEAST WHERE CONDITIONS ARE MOST FAVORABLE. NORTHERLY SURFACE                
WINDS AND MUCH DRIER AIR FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT. INITIAL CAA                
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD INHIBIT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES...WITH              
MANY LOCATIONS REACHING HIGHS FAIRLY EARLY...THEN HOLDING STEADY                
OR PERHAPS FALLING A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON.                        
AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED               
CONVECTION. IFR VSBYS AND CIGS DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT...NOT                    
COMPLETELY DEPARTING UNTIL FROPA LATE TUESDAY MORNING. FROPA WILL               
SWING WINDS NW THEN N AND SCOUR OUT LOW CIGS AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN.             
MARINE...LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT                 
WITH SEA FOG DEVELOPING. FLOW WILL RAPIDLY TURN OFFSHORE AND                    
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL                      
PASSAGE. FLOW SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE SCA CRITERIA THROUGH TUESDAY                  
NIGHT.                                                                          
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN             
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE CYCLONE                 
DEEPENS OVER WEST TEXAS. BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY              
AFTERNOON/EVENING(POSSIBLY ADVISORY LEVELS) GIVEN SURFACE PRESSURE              
GRADIENT/ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE FALLS/THERMAL GRADIENT. TEMPERATURES              
WILL CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS(ESPECIALLY THE COASTAL/RIO GRANDE             
PLAINS WHERE CLOUDINESS WILL BE LESS PREVALENT AND DRY TOPSOIL WILL             
BE MOST INFLUENTIAL). SCEC/SCA CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR MOST OF THE                
TIME OVER THE WATERS.                                                           
A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE/CLOSED CYCLONE DIVES INTO TEXAS                    
FRIDAY/SATURDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS/ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE TROUGH AXIS              
WILL CLEAR THE REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...THE LATITUDINAL            
POSITION IS MORE UNCERTAIN AND WILL ULTIMATELY DICTATE HOW COLD THE             
AIRMASS WILL BE WHICH IS ORIGINATING FROM WESTERN CANADA. MODELS                
HAVE BEEN FLIP-FLOPPING WITH COLD FRONTAL TIMING FOR FRIDAY. PREFER             
THE FASTER 06Z GFS SOLUTION(CANADIAN/NOGAPS IN AGREEMENT) WHICH                 
SWEEPS IT THROUGH DURING THE MORNING GIVEN DENSITY CONSIDERATIONS.              
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST TO MID-GRADE CHANCE POPS EAST AS             
MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LACKING AND CAPPING INVERSION IS PRESENT.                  
RETAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST AND LOW-END CHANCE POPS EAST FRIDAY            
NIGHT/SATURDAY AS SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS OCCURS IN THE MIDST OF AT                
LEAST SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. POST-FRONTAL WINDY/STRONG SCA              
CONDITIONS EXPECTED GIVEN STRONG ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES/COLD                
THERMAL ADVECTION. A WIND ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE REQUIRED AND THE            
OFFSHORE WATERS MAY FLIRT WITH GALE WARNING CRITERIA. A SURFACE                 
ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT THEN QUICKLY RETREATS                      
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A DRY RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT.                
POST-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES WERE WEIGHTED TOWARD THE RAW GFS NUMBERS.             
MAINTAINED THE RAPID TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SUNDAY AS SIGNIFICANT WARM            
THERMAL ADVECTION FLOODS THE AREA WITH THE GROUND STILL RELATIVELY              
DRY.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
CORPUS CHRISTI    63  76  43  68  52  /  10  50  10   0  10                     
VICTORIA          62  71  41  67  46  /  10  60  10   0  10                     
LAREDO            65  76  43  77  53  /  10  20  10   0  10                     
ALICE             62  75  40  72  49  /  10  40  10   0  10                     
ROCKPORT          65  73  46  66  54  /  10  60  10   0  10                     
COTULLA           62  71  39  75  47  /  10  20  10   0  10                     
KINGSVILLE        63  75  41  70  50  /  10  40  10   0  10                     
NAVY CORPUS       66  74  50  66  54  /  10  50  10   0  10                     
&&                                                                              
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SC/70...SHORT TERM                                                              
TM/95...LONG TERM                                                               
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
541 PM CST MON FEB 11 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING WILL                 
DETERIORATE TO LIFR/VLIFR VSBYS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE INLAND                
SECTIONS OF THE COASTAL BEND. ONLY MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED OVER                  
KLRD AND IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER KCRP AROUND SUNRISE. A COLD               
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING              
HOURS AND SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THERE COULD BE                      
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT...MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY                 
16. VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND                
THE FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 PM CST MON FEB 11 2008/                         
SHORT TERM...TWO MAIN FEATURES OF INTEREST OVER THE SHORT TERM.                 
THE FIRST IS AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IN PROGRESS ACROSS SOUTH                    
TEXAS. FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES ALOFT HAVE ALLOWED CONVECTION TO                   
TRIGGER...MAINLY IN A RELATIVELY COOL POOL ALOFT AS PER HOURLY RUC              
GRAPHICS. SOME CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY INITIATED FURTHER                        
SOUTHWEST...ALONG AN APPARENT BACK EDGE TO USABLE LIFT AS PER 88D               
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY.                                                          
EXPECT SOME CLEARING THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER                      
LOW...AND WITH CONTINUING HIGH BLYR MOISTURE FOG FORMATION IS                   
AGAIN FAVORED TONIGHT.                                                          
A MUCH STRONGER BOUNDARY WORKS THROUGH THE REGION ON                            
TUESDAY. DECENT DYNAMICS AND RELATIVELY HIGH PWATS SHOULD TRIGGER               
HIGH COVERAGE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE               
NORTHEAST WHERE CONDITIONS ARE MOST FAVORABLE. NORTHERLY SURFACE                
WINDS AND MUCH DRIER AIR FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT. INITIAL CAA                
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD INHIBIT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES...WITH              
MANY LOCATIONS REACHING HIGHS FAIRLY EARLY...THEN HOLDING STEADY                
OR PERHAPS FALLING A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON.                        
AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED               
CONVECTION. IFR VSBYS AND CIGS DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT...NOT                    
COMPLETELY DEPARTING UNTIL FROPA LATE TUESDAY MORNING. FROPA WILL               
SWING WINDS NW THEN N AND SCOUR OUT LOW CIGS AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN.             
MARINE...LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT                 
WITH SEA FOG DEVELOPING. FLOW WILL RAPIDLY TURN OFFSHORE AND                    
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL                      
PASSAGE. FLOW SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE SCA CRITERIA THROUGH TUESDAY                  
NIGHT.                                                                          
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN             
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE CYCLONE                 
DEEPENS OVER WEST TEXAS. BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY              
AFTERNOON/EVENING(POSSIBLY ADVISORY LEVELS) GIVEN SURFACE PRESSURE              
GRADIENT/ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE FALLS/THERMAL GRADIENT. TEMPERATURES              
WILL CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS(ESPECIALLY THE COASTAL/RIO GRANDE             
PLAINS WHERE CLOUDINESS WILL BE LESS PREVALENT AND DRY TOPSOIL WILL             
BE MOST INFLUENTIAL). SCEC/SCA CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR MOST OF THE                
TIME OVER THE WATERS.                                                           
A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE/CLOSED CYCLONE DIVES INTO TEXAS                    
FRIDAY/SATURDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS/ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE TROUGH AXIS              
WILL CLEAR THE REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...THE LATITUDINAL            
POSITION IS MORE UNCERTAIN AND WILL ULTIMATELY DICTATE HOW COLD THE             
AIRMASS WILL BE WHICH IS ORIGINATING FROM WESTERN CANADA. MODELS                
HAVE BEEN FLIP-FLOPPING WITH COLD FRONTAL TIMING FOR FRIDAY. PREFER             
THE FASTER 06Z GFS SOLUTION(CANADIAN/NOGAPS IN AGREEMENT) WHICH                 
SWEEPS IT THROUGH DURING THE MORNING GIVEN DENSITY CONSIDERATIONS.              
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST TO MID-GRADE CHANCE POPS EAST AS             
MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LACKING AND CAPPING INVERSION IS PRESENT.                  
RETAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST AND LOW-END CHANCE POPS EAST FRIDAY            
NIGHT/SATURDAY AS SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS OCCURS IN THE MIDST OF AT                
LEAST SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. POST-FRONTAL WINDY/STRONG SCA              
CONDITIONS EXPECTED GIVEN STRONG ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES/COLD                
THERMAL ADVECTION. A WIND ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE REQUIRED AND THE            
OFFSHORE WATERS MAY FLIRT WITH GALE WARNING CRITERIA. A SURFACE                 
ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT THEN QUICKLY RETREATS                      
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A DRY RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT.                
POST-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES WERE WEIGHTED TOWARD THE RAW GFS NUMBERS.             
MAINTAINED THE RAPID TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SUNDAY AS SIGNIFICANT WARM            
THERMAL ADVECTION FLOODS THE AREA WITH THE GROUND STILL RELATIVELY              
DRY.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
CORPUS CHRISTI    63  76  43  68  52  /  10  50  10   0  10                     
VICTORIA          62  71  41  67  46  /  20  60  10   0  10                     
LAREDO            65  76  43  77  53  /  10  20  10   0  10                     
ALICE             62  75  40  72  49  /  10  40  10   0  10                     
ROCKPORT          65  73  46  66  54  /  10  60  10   0  10                     
COTULLA           62  71  39  75  47  /  10  20  10   0  10                     
KINGSVILLE        63  75  41  70  50  /  10  40  10   0  10                     
NAVY CORPUS       66  74  50  66  54  /  10  50  10   0  10                     
&&                                                                              
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TM/95...AVIATION                                                                
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
229 PM CST MON FEB 11 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TWO MAIN FEATURES OF INTEREST OVER THE SHORT TERM.                
THE FIRST IS AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IN PROGRESS ACROSS SOUTH                    
TEXAS. FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES ALOFT HAVE ALLOWED CONVECTION TO                   
TRIGGER...MAINLY IN A RELATIVELY COOL POOL ALOFT AS PER HOURLY RUC              
GRAPHICS. SOME CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY INITIATED FURTHER                        
SOUTHWEST...ALONG AN APPARENT BACK EDGE TO USABLE LIFT AS PER 88D               
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY.                                                          
EXPECT SOME CLEARING THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER                      
LOW...AND WITH CONTINUING HIGH BLYR MOISTURE FOG FORMATION IS                   
AGAIN FAVORED TONIGHT.                                                          
A MUCH STRONGER BOUNDARY WORKS THROUGH THE REGION ON                            
TUESDAY. DECENT DYNAMICS AND RELATIVELY HIGH PWATS SHOULD TRIGGER               
HIGH COVERAGE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE               
NORTHEAST WHERE CONDITIONS ARE MOST FAVORABLE. NORTHERLY SURFACE                
WINDS AND MUCH DRIER AIR FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT. INITIAL CAA                
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD INHIBIT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES...WITH              
MANY LOCATIONS REACHING HIGHS FAIRLY EARLY...THEN HOLDING STEADY                
OR PERHAPS FALLING A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON.                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED              
CONVECTION. IFR VSBYS AND CIGS DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT...NOT                    
COMPLETELY DEPARTING UNTIL FROPA LATE TUESDAY MORNING. FROPA WILL               
SWING WINDS NW THEN N AND SCOUR OUT LOW CIGS AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN.             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT                
WITH SEA FOG DEVELOPING. FLOW WILL RAPIDLY TURN OFFSHORE AND                    
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL                      
PASSAGE. FLOW SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE SCA CRITERIA THROUGH TUESDAY                  
NIGHT.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN            
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE CYCLONE                 
DEEPENS OVER WEST TEXAS. BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY              
AFTERNOON/EVENING(POSSIBLY ADVISORY LEVELS) GIVEN SURFACE PRESSURE              
GRADIENT/ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE FALLS/THERMAL GRADIENT. TEMPERATURES              
WILL CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS(ESPECIALLY THE COASTAL/RIO GRANDE             
PLAINS WHERE CLOUDINESS WILL BE LESS PREVALENT AND DRY TOPSOIL WILL             
BE MOST INFLUENTIAL). SCEC/SCA CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR MOST OF THE                
TIME OVER THE WATERS.                                                           
A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE/CLOSED CYCLONE DIVES INTO TEXAS                    
FRIDAY/SATURDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS/ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE TROUGH AXIS              
WILL CLEAR THE REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...THE LATITUDINAL            
POSITION IS MORE UNCERTAIN AND WILL ULTIMATELY DICTATE HOW COLD THE             
AIRMASS WILL BE WHICH IS ORIGINATING FROM WESTERN CANADA. MODELS                
HAVE BEEN FLIP-FLOPPING WITH COLD FRONTAL TIMING FOR FRIDAY. PREFER             
THE FASTER 06Z GFS SOLUTION(CANADIAN/NOGAPS IN AGREEMENT) WHICH                 
SWEEPS IT THROUGH DURING THE MORNING GIVEN DENSITY CONSIDERATIONS.              
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST TO MID-GRADE CHANCE POPS EAST AS             
MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LACKING AND CAPPING INVERSION IS PRESENT.                  
RETAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST AND LOW-END CHANCE POPS EAST FRIDAY            
NIGHT/SATURDAY AS SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS OCCURS IN THE MIDST OF AT                
LEAST SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. POST-FRONTAL WINDY/STRONG SCA              
CONDITIONS EXPECTED GIVEN STRONG ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES/COLD                
THERMAL ADVECTION. A WIND ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE REQUIRED AND THE            
OFFSHORE WATERS MAY FLIRT WITH GALE WARNING CRITERIA. A SURFACE                 
ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT THEN QUICKLY RETREATS                      
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A DRY RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT.                
POST-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES WERE WEIGHTED TOWARD THE RAW GFS NUMBERS.             
MAINTAINED THE RAPID TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SUNDAY AS SIGNIFICANT WARM            
THERMAL ADVECTION FLOODS THE AREA WITH THE GROUND STILL RELATIVELY              
DRY.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
CORPUS CHRISTI    62  82  44  68  52  /  10  50  10   0  10                     
VICTORIA          61  72  42  67  49  /  20  60  10   0  10                     
LAREDO            64  82  44  73  52  /  10  20  10   0  10                     
ALICE             61  83  41  71  50  /  10  40  10   0  10                     
ROCKPORT          64  74  47  66  54  /  10  60  10   0  10                     
COTULLA           61  72  40  70  50  /  10  20  10   0  10                     
KINGSVILLE        62  84  42  70  50  /  10  40  10   0  10                     
NAVY CORPUS       65  80  51  66  54  /  10  50  10   0  10                     
&&                                                                              
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JV/71...SHORT TERM                                                              
BB/85...LONG TERM                                                               
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
1145 PM CST SUN FEB 10 2008                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES AND                
WILL CONTINUE A GRADUAL PUSH SW.  WILL SHOW WINDS NNE AT 5KT FOR THE            
NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH A MENTION OF LLWS AS SOUTH WINDS AT 1000FT ARE            
IN EXCESS OF 20KT AND WILL BE INCREASING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE                 
HOURS.  WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE EAST AND THEN SOUTH             
BY SUNRISE AS FRONT RETREATS NORTHWARD.  MEANWHILE...STRATUS WILL BE            
MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH AND EXPECT IT TO ARRIVE AT KACT AROUND 8Z              
AND IN THE METROPLEX AROUND 10Z.  SOME IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS             
INITIAL STRATUS LAYER MOVES IN AND MIXES WITH/SATURATES THE VERY                
SHALLOW FRONTAL INVERSION.  WILL SHOW MVFR CIGS PREVAILING AT ALL               
TAF SITES THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH CIGS LIFTING/SCATTERING OUT                
THEREAFTER. BROUGHT A MENTION OF TSRA AND FROPA AT 4Z FOR METROPLEX             
SITES...AND LATER SHIFTS CAN REFINE THIS THINKING.  TR.92                       
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...                                                                      
COLD FRONT HAS SAGGED FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AND                 
FORECAST AND CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH. THE FRONT NOW LIES JUST SOUTH OF          
A LINE FROM COOPER...TO MCKINNEY...TO DECATUR...TO NEWPORT. RUC13               
APPEARS TO BE HANDLING THE FRONT THE BEST...INSTEAD OF THE NEW                  
NAM...SO WILL BRING THE FRONT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE METROPLEX AND                 
STALL IT THERE BEFORE IT PUSHES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT CLOSER               
TO DAYBREAK. THIS MEANS COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT              
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS IN                
THIS AREA BY 5-8 DEGREES WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S                 
ALONG THE RED RIVER TO THE MID 40S ALONG INTERSTATE 20. OVERNIGHT               
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S CAN STILL BE EXPECTED SOUTH OF I-20.               
HAVE ALSO REMOVED POPS FROM THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT.           
APPEARS THE BEST ENERGY AND DYNAMICS WILL STILL BE UP IN COLORADO               
AND OKLAHOMA AND WILL NOT MAKE IT TO THE RED RIVER UNTIL AFTER                  
SUNRISE. HOWEVER...A FEW AREAS OF DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE                
RED RIVER AROUND SUNRISE.                                                       
OTHER CHANGES TO GRIDS WERE TO UPDATE BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. NEW              
MODEL DATA INDICATES FRONT TOMORROW EVENING MAY ARRIVE A FEW HOURS              
EARLIER AND BEGIN ENTERING NORTH TEXAS AROUND SUNSET.                           
82/JLD                                                                          
&&                                                                              
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
THE COMING WEEK WILL BE REPLETE WITH WEATHER ACTIVITY IN NORTH                  
TEXAS. THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA              
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL AND A FEW                     
THUNDERSTORMS..THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME BENEFICIAL RAIN                  
WILL OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM.                                                    
THE SECOND...AND LAST...SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM                   
EARLY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRODUCING MAINLY LIGHT RAIN.                  
THERE ARE LOW CHANCES OF SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION...MAINLY NEAR                
THE RED RIVER...BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DO ANYTHING RATHER THEN                  
SPECULATE ABOUT THE WINTRY WEATHER AT THE CURRENT TIME.                         
MOREOVER...THE MODELS` OVERALL TREATMENT OF WINTRY WEATHER THIS                 
WINTER HAS BEEN MARGINAL AT BEST...AND USUALLY LOUSY.                           
THUS...AT THE CURRENT TIME WE HAVE FORECASTED RAIN ONLY WITH THE                
SECOND SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE WEEK.                                           
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN FROM MILD TO COOL THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. #26                
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  45  66  48  58  33 /  10  40  50  20   5                  
WACO, TX              53  69  52  61  36 /  10  20  30  50   5                  
PARIS, TX             38  56  46  55  30 /  10  50  70  50  10                  
DENTON, TX            40  66  46  59  28 /  10  40  50  20   5                  
MCKINNEY, TX          40  63  46  57  30 /  10  50  60  30   5                  
DALLAS, TX            46  65  47  56  37 /  10  40  50  30   5                  
TERRELL, TX           50  64  49  56  34 /  10  40  50  50   5                  
CORSICANA, TX         51  66  50  58  35 /  10  30  40  50  10                  
TEMPLE, TX            54  69  51  63  35 /  10  20  30  50   5                  
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
92/82                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX                                             
1044 PM CST SUN FEB 10 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
COLD FRONT NEARLY BISECTING FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST           
AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SLIDING SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING            
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BEFORE MOVING BACK TO THE NORTHEAST LATER             
THIS MORNING AS LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO.               
TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE HAVE DROPPED TO BELOW            
FORECAST VALUES ATTM AND WILL UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. SOME            
LOW CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST ZONES...HOWEVER NOT AS MUCH            
AS DEPICTED IN GRIDS. HAVE ALSO UPDATED DEW POINT TEMPERATURES AND              
SKY CONDITION.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CST SUN FEB 10 2008/                         
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT WAS CONTINUING TO BACKDOOR DOWN             
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE ENE               
OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEAST ZONES AS OF 20Z. THIS SHALLOW COOL AIR               
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BACKDOOR THROUGH MOST LOCATIONS OFF THE CAPROCK              
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN EXACTLY            
HOW FAR WEST THIS FRONT WILL GET TONIGHT...BUT THE 12Z WRF-NAM AND              
15Z RUC DATA SUGGEST A DIMMITT TO LUBBOCK LINE AS A GOOD GUESS...AND            
HAVE GONE WITH THAT IN THE GRIDS. HOWEVER...THESE SHALLOW FRONTS ARE            
TRICKY AND IT COULD WELL MOVE EVEN FARTHER WEST YET /AS 18Z RUC NOW             
INDICATES/.                                                                     
ADDITIONALLY...WEST OF THE FRONT SOUTHERLY WINDS /THANKS TO A LEE               
TROUGH IN EASTERN NM/ HAVE BEEN ABLE TO TRANSPORT SOME MUCH IMPROVED            
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS...WITH DEWPOINTS              
WELL INTO THE 40S NOTED OVER THE SE HALF OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AROUND             
20Z. THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT              
IN WAA REGIME...WITH LOW CLOUDS A GOOD BET OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THERE         
COULD ALSO BE SOME PATCHY FOG FOR LOCATIONS ON THE CAPROCK.                     
OTHER CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS AS MOISTURE            
INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT. MODEL DATA SUGGESTS SOME WEAK AMOUNTS OF              
MUCAPE AVAILABLE GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ABOVE RELATIVELY             
SHALLOW MOISTURE. THUS...COULD NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OVER THE                   
EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS OR ROLLING PLAINS...BUT SREF DATA SUGGESTS THAT            
THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE MOISTURE AND LIMITED LIFT WILL KEEP PRECIP            
CHANCES RATHER LOW /BELOW 15 PERCENT/. THUS...HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT             
OF THE FORECAST...BUT EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO WATCH.                         
WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AS A SURFACE LOW                
BECOMES ESTABLISHED SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE EARLY                
MONDAY. THIS WILL SWEEP THE BETTER MOISTURE EASTWARD...THOUGH                   
POSSIBLY LINGERING OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY.                     
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RELATIVELY MILD TONIGHT WITH IMPROVED                    
MOISTURE AND EXPECTED LOW CLOUDS. THEN...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND            
INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON THE CAPROCK MONDAY AS DOWNSLOPE              
WINDS AND DRIER AIR QUICKLY RETURNS. HIGHS ARE MORE IN QUESTION                 
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES WHERE THE COOLER AIR/LOW CLOUDS WILL BE              
MORE DIFFICULT TO ERODE. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH THE LOW END OF                   
GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST HIGHS THERE.                                              
LONG TERM...                                                                    
STILL THINK THAT FRONTAL PASSAGE INTO RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MONDAY               
NIGHT COULD SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDRESTORMS AS FAR WEST AS THE              
ERN ZONES OF THE FCST AREA...ALTHOUGH POSSIBILITY IS STILL PRETTY               
REMOTE. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME              
FRAME WHEN THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA.                 
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE INITIAL EVOLUTION OF                
THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE WRN CONUS...SPLITTING THE UPPER               
LEVEL FLOW WITH THE SRN END BECOMING A CLOSED LOW OVER THE                      
4-CORNERS REGION THURSDAY. UNFORTUNATELY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES                
ARISE WITH ITS GENERAL EASTWARD PROGRESSION FROM THERE. 12Z GFS                 
HAS TRENDED TOWARD A FAIRLY FAST MOVING OPENING WAVE AS IT CROSSES              
THE REGION WITH WEAKENING DYNAMICS AND A BRIEF SHOT AT                          
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LATEST ECMWF CONTINUES                
DECENT RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH A CLOSED LOW MOVING MORE                     
SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION AND BRINGING A BETTER SHOT OF PRECIP                   
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. 12Z CANADIAN IS SLOWER LIKE THE ECMWF                 
BUT WITH AN OPEN TROUGH SIMILAR TO THE GFS. 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE                    
MEMBERS SUPPORT THE GAMUT OF SOLUTIONS WITH A MAJORITY TENDING TO               
FAVOR ITS OPERATIONAL SOLUTION. THUS STILL QUITE A BIT OF                       
UNCERTAINTY AS IS OFTEN THE CASE WITH THESE CLOSED LOWS IN SPLIT                
FLOW SCENARIOS. DO NOT HAVE A STRONG CASE TO MAKE ANY WHICH WAY.                
AS SUCH WILL HANG ONTO SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THIS TIME FRAME COVERING              
POSSIBLITY OF FASTER BUT ALSO SOME SLOWER SOLUTIONS. WILL REMOVE                
PPS FROM SATURDAY IN PART TO KEEP MENTION OF PRECIP CONFINED TO                 
THREE PERIODS BUT ALSO BECAUSE ONLY THE SLOWEST MODELS/MEMBERS                  
SUPPORT THAT TIMING. THIS RUN HAS ALSO TRENDED TO KEEPING PRECIP                
MORE WITH THE LOW ITSELF WHICH WOULD TEND TO FAVOR SNOW OVER                    
FREEZING RAIN. WILL KEEP MENTION OF THE LATTER IN ATTM BUT IS                   
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. LATE WEEK ARCTIC INTRUSION STILL                   
LOOKS COLDER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AND HAVE UNDERCUT THOSE                     
NUMBERS...PARTICULARLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.                                     
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
AFTER IMPROVED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...IT               
APPEARS VERY DRY AIR WILL AGAIN FILTER INTO THE SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE             
AND WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH                   
BREEZY....FORECAST WIND SPEEDS CURRENTLY FALL SHORT OF CRITICAL FIRE            
WEATHER CRITERIA.                                                               
WEDNESDAY LOOKS BREEZY AS WELL...PARTICULARLY WRN ZONES. HOWEVER                
FOR THIS DAY FCST RH VALUES ARE ALSO MARGINAL.                                  
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
FRIONA        33  68  29  54  29 /   0   0  10   0   0                          
TULIA         36  70  30  53  28 /  10   0  10   0   0                          
PLAINVIEW     40  71  30  52  29 /  10   0  10   0   0                          
LEVELLAND     47  72  30  54  28 /  10   0  10   0   0                          
LUBBOCK       45  72  31  55  29 /  10   0  10   0   0                          
DENVER CITY   46  70  33  55  31 /  10   0  10   0   0                          
BROWNFIELD    47  72  31  55  30 /  10   0  10   0   0                          
CHILDRESS     32  64  32  53  30 /  10  10  20   0   0                          
SPUR          41  72  33  56  30 /  10  10  20   0   0                          
ASPERMONT     41  72  35  56  30 /  10  10  20   0   0                          
&&                                                                              
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
08                                                                              
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI                                           
1001 PM CST MON FEB 11 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...DECIDED TO ISSUE A LAKE-EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR DOOR...              
KEWAUNEE AND MANITOWOC COUNTIES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MODELS...                 
ASIDE THE RUC...ARE NOT HANDLING THIS SITUATION VERY WELL...AS                  
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED...             
AND A WELL DEFINED MESO-LOW IS ALREADY ORGANIZING OVER CNTRL LAKE               
MICHIGAN. LLVL WINDS ARE FCST TO BECOME UNIDIRECTIONAL FROM AN ESE              
DIRECTION OVERNIGHT...AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. A STG LLVL                     
CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL GET LOCKED IN ALONG THE LKSHR...AND WILL BE               
ENHANCED BY THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THAT ARE OCCURING INLAND.                
INSTABILITY IS DECENT...WITH LAKE-H8 DELTA-T`S OF 17-19 C. LAKE                 
EFFECT SNOW WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE S/W TROF MOVG THROUGH THE                   
AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LES CHARTS INDICATE A GOOD                      
POTENTIAL FOR 3-5 INCHES/12 HOUR PERIOD...SO WILL START WITH                    
TOTALS OF 4-7 INCHES IN KEWAUNEE/MANITOWOC COUNTIES...WHICH                     
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THE MESO-LOW SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND                   
WILL RECEIVE THE BEST ENHANCEMENT DUE TO THE S/W TROF ON TUES.                  
WILL MENTION SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS FOR DOOR COUNTY. HAVE A GUT                 
FEELING THAT THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT MAY BE UPGRADING PART OF THIS                   
TO A WARNING LATER TONIGHT.                                                     
KIECKBUSCH                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 343 PM CST MON FEB 11 2008...                      
SHORT TERM...TONITE AND TUESDAY...FORECAST FOCUS ON                             
TEMPERATURES AND SNOW CHANCES.                                                  
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF SNOW HAVE SLOWED               
IN THEIR NORTHWARD PROGRESSION TODAY. GIVEN THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES              
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS WILL LOWER MINS TO THE              
MAV VALUES AS RECENT TRENDS HAVE BEEN COLDER AND CLOSER TO THE MAV.             
WITH THE SLOWER SNOW PROGRESSION...THE BULK OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW                
WILL NOT REACH THE CWA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. ACROSS THE LAKE                    
MICHIGAN LAKESHORE COUNTIES WINDS BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR LAKE EFFECT              
WITH AN EASTERLY FETCH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN SHORTLY AFTER MIDNITE.              
DESPITE FAVORABLE DELTA T VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS...THE AMOUNT                
OF LAKE EFFECT WILL BE LIMITED BY THE 90 MILE FETCH ACROSS THE                  
LAKE. GIVEN THIS TIMING WILL ADJUST POPS TO BE HIGHEST LATE                     
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE LOW MOVES TO THE                 
EAST AND WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.                          
AT THIS TIME THE BULK OF THE SNOW LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE                        
SOUTHEAST CWA WHERE AROUND 3 INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL IN 18                    
HOURS...BELOW SNOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL                   
SEE THE LEAST SNOW AND WILL PROBABLY NOT GET MORE THAN A                        
DUSTING...IF ANY SNOW AT ALL.                                                   
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. POTENTIAL SNOWSTORM FOR               
THURSDAY IS THE CHIEF WEATHER MAKER FOR THIS PERIOD. UPPER TROUGH               
APPROACHING BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST BY                
THE MODELS TO DROP SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE JET ENERGY                
IS FORECAST TO SPLIT WITH SOME MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS                
AND SOME HEADED TOWARDS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN                
VERY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR THE PAST THREE DAYS...AND THE              
12 UTC GFS NOW HAS A SIMILAR FORECAST. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD ARRIVE IN              
CENTRAL WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH MODERATE SNOW EXPECTED                 
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THURSDAY.                                              
ANOTHER SYSTEM MIGHT BRING SOME SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND                         
SUNDAY...THOUGH THE BEST DYNAMICS LOOK TO BE NORTH OF WISCONSIN.                
SMALL CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FROM LAKE SUPERIOR                     
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT WINDS NOT IDEAL AND HIGH RESOLUTION                  
MODIS VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES AVAILABLE AT                                   
HTTP://COASTWATCH.GLERL.NOAA.GOV/MODIS/MODIS.CGI/MODIS?REGION=M&PAGE=1          
SHOW THAT THE WESTERN FOURTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR IS ICING UP. SO LAKE              
EFFECT POTENTIAL IS SMALL FOR NOW.                                              
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING...WITH                          
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT AS AREA OF LIGHT             
SNOW MOVES NORTH. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST INTO TUESDAY AS              
LIGHT SNOW SLOWLY ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST.                                       
&&                                                                              
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ022-040-                
050.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
141 PM CST MON FEB 11 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...ALONG WITH CURRENT                   
RADAR TRENDS...HAVE DELAYED SNOW ADVISORY FOR AREAS AROUND KLSE                 
AND POINTS EAST UNTIL 00Z THIS EVENING. MAINTAINED START TIME OF                
21Z THIS AFTERNOON FOR SNOW ADVISORY IN LOCATIONS OVER MUCH OF                  
SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST IOWA. ALSO CHOSE TO EXTEND ADVISORY                  
UNTIL 18Z TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...OPTED TO DISCONTINUE SNOW                      
ADVISORY FOR AREAS FROM MNZ079 THROUGH WIZ032>034. PLEASE                       
REFERENCE HEADLINE CHANGES BELOW.                                               
THOMPSON                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1034 AM CST MON FEB 11 2008/                        
UPDATE...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED SNOW OCCURRING                
IN THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IN                   
FACT...HEAVIER SNOW BAND ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS                
AND NEGATIVE EPV WAS SITUATED FROM KMCW...KCCY...KOLZ...KDBQ.                   
CALLS TO OBSERVERS INDICATED AMOUNTS AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH AS                
OF 15Z...WHICH WERE ISSUED IN PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT AT 1523Z.            
LATEST RUC AND NAM/WRF SUGGEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SHIFTS                     
SOUTHWARD GRADUALLY THROUGH 18Z...THUS SNOW SHOULD DIMINISH IN                  
INTENSITY BUT NOT BEFORE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES                 
OCCUR IN AFOREMENTIONED CORRIDOR ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA.                         
DATA BASE AND ASSOCIATED TEXT AND GRAPHIC INFORMATION HAS BEEN                  
UPDATED. ANOTHER INTERMEDIATE UPDATE WILL PROBABLY BE FORTHCOMING               
BETWEEN 1700-1730Z TO INCLUDE TRENDS EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON.               
THOMPSON                                                                        
&&                                                                              
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 AM CST MON FEB 11 2008/                          
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT                                        
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS ON SNOW CHANCES AND AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH              
TONIGHT.                                                                        
07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NEAR LAKE               
WINNIPEG THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN AND INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS.                   
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING WARM ADVECTION MID LEVEL                     
CLOUDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH ACROSS SOUTHER MINNESOTA AND                
MOST OF IOWA. MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING SHORTWAVE              
DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONTANA THAT WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER                
PLAYER LATER TODAY.                                                             
11.00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS PROGRESSIVE               
FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. THUS THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL            
CONTINUE.                                                                       
FOR TODAY EXPECT SHORTWAVE TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS               
AFTERNOON. DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR THIS MORNING HAS KEPT SNOW WELL OFF              
TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE SATURATION TO OCCUR FROM               
WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION/850MB-               
700MB WARM ADVECTION/280K-290K ISENTROPIC LIFT ALL COINCIDE ACROSS              
THE AREA FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA TO                  
PROVIDE A BROAD AREA OF LIFT. IN ADDITION SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE              
FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 300MB JET OVER               
IOWA WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THIS AREA. THIS WILL AID IN THE           
LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ENHANCING SNOWFALL           
AMOUNTS. WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES SNOW RATIOS WILL BECOME A FACTOR.           
COBB DATA FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOWING AVERAGE RATIOS AROUND               
18:1 AND USED THIS FOR THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE               
MONITORED TODAY AS ANY HIGHER RATIOS COULD PUSH AMOUNTS OVER 6 INCHES           
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. FOR NOW GENERAL 2 TO 6 INCHES EXPECTED             
ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL              
HOIST A SNOW ADVISORY GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LAKE CITY                  
MINNESOTA...TO BLACK RIVER FALLS LINE.                                          
ON TUESDAY SYSTEMS EXITS QUICKLY TO THE EAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE                 
DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA. MAINTAINED LOWER END POPS ACROSS THE EAST             
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES IN                     
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH QUIET WEATHER.                                               
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COMING IN COOLER BEHIND WAVE                    
TONIGHT AND THUS AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES DID               
LOWER TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.                               
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY                                            
YET ANOTHER WAVE IN THIS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN BRINGS ANOTHER                     
SHOT OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY                
NIGHT. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS WITH THE                  
HEAVIER BAND OF QPF ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST              
AREA. CURRENT GRIDS HAVE THIS WELL IN HAND WITH THE BETTER CHANCES              
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS COMING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. 11.00Z              
GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER WITH HANDLING OF NEXT FRONT ON THE WEEKEND.                
WITH THESE DIFFERENCES NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE GRIDS WITH LOW            
END POPS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKING GOOD.                              
&&                                                                              
AVIATION...                                                                     
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE REGION BY                            
TONIGHT...SPINNING EAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN              
AND CEILINGS WILL LOWER TODAY AS RESULT...WITH MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY             
MOVING BY OR AROUND 00Z. -SN WILL ALSO DEVELOP...BECOMING                       
PREDOMINANT AFTER 00Z AND CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT. AN                    
ACCOMPANYING DROP IN VSBYS INTO THE 1-2SM RANGE WITH THE SNOW CAN BE            
EXPECTED...WITH SOME 1/2SM NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WINDS WILL BE               
LIGHTER...SO DON/T EXPECT BLSN CONCERNS FOR KRST...DESPITE WHAT                 
SHOULD BE A RATHER FLUFFY...HIGH RATIO SNOW.                                    
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...SNOW ADVISORY 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 12 PM CST TUESDAY FOR              
     WIZ054-WIZ061.                                                             
     SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 12 PM CST TUESDAY FOR              
     WIZ041-WIZ042-WIZ043-WIZ044-WIZ053-WIZ055.                                 
MN...SNOW ADVISORY 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 12 PM CST TUESDAY FOR              
     MNZ086-MNZ087-MNZ094-MNZ095.                                               
     SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 12 PM CST TUESDAY FOR              
     MNZ088-MNZ096.                                                             
IA...SNOW ADVISORY 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 12 PM CST TUESDAY FOR              
     IAZ008-IAZ009-IAZ010-IAZ011-IAZ018-IAZ019-IAZ029-IAZ030.                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
1034 AM CST MON FEB 11 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED SNOW OCCURRING               
IN THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IN                   
FACT...HEAVIER SNOW BAND ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS                
AND NEGATIVE EPV WAS SITUATED FROM KMCW...KCCY...KOLZ...KDBQ.                   
CALLS TO OBSERVERS INDICATED AMOUNTS AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH AS                
OF 15Z...WHICH WERE ISSUED IN PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT AT 1523Z.            
LATEST RUC AND NAM/WRF SUGGEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SHIFTS                     
SOUTHWARD GRADUALLY THROUGH 18Z...THUS SNOW SHOULD DIMINISH IN                  
INTENSITY BUT NOT BEFORE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES                 
OCCUR IN AFOREMENTIONED CORRIDOR ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA.                         
DATA BASE AND ASSOCIATED TEXT AND GRAPHIC INFORMATION HAS BEEN                  
UPDATED. ANOTHER INTERMEDIATE UPDATE WILL PROBABLY BE FORTHCOMING               
BETWEEN 1700-1730Z TO INCLUDE TRENDS EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON.               
THOMPSON                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 AM CST MON FEB 11 2008/                         
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT                                        
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS ON SNOW CHANCES AND AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH              
TONIGHT.                                                                        
07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NEAR LAKE               
WINNIPEG THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN AND INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS.                   
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING WARM ADVECTION MID LEVEL                     
CLOUDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH ACROSS SOUTHER MINNESOTA AND                
MOST OF IOWA. MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING SHORTWAVE              
DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONTANA THAT WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER                
PLAYER LATER TODAY.                                                             
11.00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS PROGRESSIVE               
FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. THUS THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL            
CONTINUE.                                                                       
FOR TODAY EXPECT SHORTWAVE TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS               
AFTERNOON. DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR THIS MORNING HAS KEPT SNOW WELL OFF              
TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE SATURATION TO OCCUR FROM               
WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION/850MB-               
700MB WARM ADVECTION/280K-290K ISENTROPIC LIFT ALL COINCIDE ACROSS              
THE AREA FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA TO                  
PROVIDE A BROAD AREA OF LIFT. IN ADDITION SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE              
FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 300MB JET OVER               
IOWA WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THIS AREA. THIS WILL AID IN THE           
LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ENHANCING SNOWFALL           
AMOUNTS. WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES SNOW RATIOS WILL BECOME A FACTOR.           
COBB DATA FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOWING AVERAGE RATIOS AROUND               
18:1 AND USED THIS FOR THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE               
MONITORED TODAY AS ANY HIGHER RATIOS COULD PUSH AMOUNTS OVER 6 INCHES           
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. FOR NOW GENERAL 2 TO 6 INCHES EXPECTED             
ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL              
HOIST A SNOW ADVISORY GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LAKE CITY                  
MINNESOTA...TO BLACK RIVER FALLS LINE.                                          
ON TUESDAY SYSTEMS EXITS QUICKLY TO THE EAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE                 
DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA. MAINTAINED LOWER END POPS ACROSS THE EAST             
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES IN                     
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH QUIET WEATHER.                                               
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COMING IN COOLER BEHIND WAVE                    
TONIGHT AND THUS AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES DID               
LOWER TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.                               
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY                                            
YET ANOTHER WAVE IN THIS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN BRINGS ANOTHER                     
SHOT OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY                
NIGHT. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS WITH THE                  
HEAVIER BAND OF QPF ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST              
AREA. CURRENT GRIDS HAVE THIS WELL IN HAND WITH THE BETTER CHANCES              
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS COMING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. 11.00Z              
GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER WITH HANDLING OF NEXT FRONT ON THE WEEKEND.                
WITH THESE DIFFERENCES NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE GRIDS WITH LOW            
END POPS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKING GOOD.                              
&&                                                                              
AVIATION...                                                                     
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE REGION BY                            
TONIGHT...SPINNING EAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN              
AND CEILINGS WILL LOWER TODAY AS RESULT...WITH MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY             
MOVING BY OR AROUND 00Z. -SN WILL ALSO DEVELOP...BECOMING                       
PREDOMINANT AFTER 00Z AND CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT. AN                    
ACCOMPANYING DROP IN VSBYS INTO THE 1-2SM RANGE WITH THE SNOW CAN BE            
EXPECTED...WITH SOME 1/2SM NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WINDS WILL BE               
LIGHTER...SO DON/T EXPECT BLSN CONCERNS FOR KRST...DESPITE WHAT                 
SHOULD BE A RATHER FLUFFY...HIGH RATIO SNOW.                                    
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...SNOW ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR             
     WIZ032-WIZ033-WIZ034-WIZ041-WIZ042-WIZ043-WIZ044-WIZ053-                   
     WIZ054-WIZ055-WIZ061.                                                      
MN...SNOW ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR             
     MNZ079-MNZ086-MNZ087-MNZ088-MNZ094-MNZ095-MNZ096.                          
IA...SNOW ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR             
     IAZ008-IAZ009-IAZ010-IAZ011-IAZ018-IAZ019-IAZ029-IAZ030.                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT/LONG TERM....RABERDING                                                    
AVIATION...........RIECK                                                        
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY                                               
441 AM EST WED FEB 13 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...WILL WORK ITS                
WAY NORTHWEST THIS MORNING. IT WILL NOT MAKE IT COMPLETELY THROUGH              
THE REGION...AS LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES INTO A SINGLE COASTAL LOW             
JUST OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL               
THEN LIFT NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES BY THURSDAY              
MORNING. A WEAK SECONDARY WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE VIRGINIA CAPES                  
THIS EVENING...AND TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. WEAK                  
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A              
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY MORNING...THEN                  
CROSSES THE TRI-STATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE               
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THEN                   
MOVES OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE                
FROM THE GULF COAST STATES SUNDAY MORNING...TO THE VICINITY OF                  
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY MORNING...AND INT THE CANADIAN                   
MARITIME PROVINCES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN                
FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
QUITE A BIT GOING ON IN THE NEAR TERM. FIRST...ALL PRECIPITATION                
IS NOW IN THE FORM OF EITHER RAIN (LONG ISLAND/COASTAL CT AND                   
METRO NYC) OR FREEZING RAIN ELSEWHERE...AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT ONLY              
SUPPORT LIQUID PRECIPITATION FALLING INTO THE LOWER BOUNDARY                    
LAYER. ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND                  
WESTERN PASSAIC COUNTY...SUFFICIENT COLD AIR IS WEDGE IN PLACE                  
AGAINST LOCALLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THAT ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT                 
ICING (AN ADDITIONAL HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH) IS LIKELY               
BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING TOWARDS THE END OF RUSH                 
HOUR. AS A RESULT THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO                 
INCLUDE PUTNAM COUNTY. WAS A BORDER LINE CASE AS TO WHETHER TO                  
INCLUDE NORTHERN FAIRFIELD COUNTY OR NOT...IT APPEARS HOWEVER THAT              
THE TRAJECTORY OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING WILL                  
ONLY CLIP THE NORTHERN TIP OF THE COUNTY...SO WILL END UP WITH A                
WIDE RANGE OF ICE COVERAGE...RANGING FROM A TENTH OF AN INCH JUST               
N OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR TO UPWARDS OF 3/4 OF AN INCH IN THE FAR                  
NORTHERN TIP...SINCE LESS THAN HALF OF THE NORTHERN FAIRFIELD                   
COUNTY ZONE SHOULD RECEIVE AT LEAST .5 INCHES OF ICE (THE                       
REQUIREMENT FOR A WARNING)...HAVE LEFT AS AN ADVISORY. FOR                      
ADVISORY AREA...HAVE EXTENDED TO 12Z. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF                 
SOME PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA ENDS UP GETTING EXTENDED AN                  
HOUR OR SO...AS NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT TEMPERATURES WARM UP AS                
FAST AS WHAT IS FORECASTED.                                                     
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING BASED ON A BLEND OF RUC 2M TEMPERATURES               
(WHICH HAVE BEEN SUPERIOR SO FAR IN THESE DAMMING SITUATIONS) AND               
LAV NUMBERS (WHICH ALSO HAVE FAIRED FAIRLY WELL IN THESE                        
SCENARIOS). (MORE ON TEMPERATURES LATER)                                        
NEXT ISSUE IS FLOODING POTENTIAL. HAVE EXPANDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH               
TO INCLUDE ORANGE AND WESTERN PASSAIC COUNTIES. GFS HAD RIGHT IDEA              
OF HEAVIER SLUG OF PRECIPITATION GOING OVER THOSE LOCATIONS...AND               
ON INTO INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CLIPPING               
FAR NW CT ZONES...AS EVIDENCE BY REGIONAL RADAR...SO WITH                       
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ON TOP OF A HALF AN INCH TO                  
INCH OF ICE (HELPING TO MAXIMIZE RUNOFF)...HAVE A FLOOD THREAT                  
THERE AS WELL. WHILE RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY EVERYWHERE BY THIS                  
AFTERNOON...HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN A BAND FROM AROUND              
NYC NE INTO NE CT IN RESPONSE TO BEING IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF              
160 KT JET...VERY STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND STRONG LOW LEVEL                 
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING (POSSIBLY CREATING BANDING TO LOCALLY ENHANCE             
PRECIPITATION). REFER TO HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR DETAILS ON RAINFALL              
AMOUNTS.                                                                        
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...ALL DEPENDANT ON HOW FAR WARM FRONT MAKES                 
IT. WARM FRONT CURRENTLY BETWEEN BUOYS (44025 AND 44017) AND LONG               
ISLAND. SHOULD MAKE IT THROUGH AT LEAST EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SE              
CT...AND POSSIBLY INTO NYC. NOT REAL CONFIDENT IN IT MAKING IT                  
THROUGH MUCH ELSE...ESPECIALLY WITH LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATING TO               
THE S BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGHS BASED ON BLEND OF MAV/FWC/MET                   
BLEND...WHICH WAS USED TO TAMPER WHAT LOOKED TO BE SLIGHTLY TO                  
MUCH WARMING OVER SE AREAS FROM RUC 2M TEMPS AND LAV NUMBERS.                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... GFS IS                   
OUTLIER WITH ITS DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG LOW TRACKING JUST TO OUR               
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...LEANED TOWARDS WEAKER MORE PROGRESSIVE                      
SOLUTION SUPPORTED BY CMC REGIONAL/NAM/SREF/ECMWF/UKMET. MAIN                   
RESULT WAS TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA                    
TONIGHT...IF CMC REGIONAL IS RIGHT COULD END UP DRY TONIGHT. BEST               
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS OVER SE AREAS...WITH ONLY SLIGHT                    
CHANCE NW. DID KEEP UP FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVERNIGHT...DUE TO                     
RESIDUAL EFFECTS AND TO TRY TO AVOID ANY ISSUES IN CASE GFS CEASES              
TO BE AN OUTLIER (AM SLIGHTLY NERVOUS BECAUSE GFS HAS BEEN                      
FORECASTING THIS IN ALL RUNS SINCE 00Z LAST NIGHT).                             
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN              
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AS WELL.                                
DIFFERENCE IN NAM AND GFS IN TIMING OF NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD              
CROSS THE REGION BEGINNING LATE ON FRIDAY. WITH SUPPORT FROM SREF               
AND UKMET LEANED TOWARDS FASTER GFS TIMING AND A WEAKER FRONT AS                
WELL. ONE CONSEQUENCE OF THE WEAKER FRONT...IS THAT THE FORCING IS              
WEAKER...SO HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS ON FRIDAY AS A RESULT. SHOULD              
BE A DECENT WARM PUSH AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY                    
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                    
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT               
FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE BOUNDARY SO WARM INITIAL HAVE A CHANCE OF                
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS N CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS S IN THE EVENING...THEN              
WITH SOME EVIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION                
HAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AT MOST LOCATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT                  
WITH THE COLDER AIR WORKING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. PRECIPITATION                  
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND THE                
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM              
IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.               
TRACK REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT AT THIS POINT WE ARE EXPECTING A MIX              
OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                     
IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE DROPPING TO LIFR TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND WILL               
REMAIN LIFR (POSSIBLY VLIFR) THROUGH ABOUT 22Z THIS EVENING. FZRA               
ACROSS KNYC TO KISP TERMINALS WILL BE CHANGING TO PLAIN RAIN OVER               
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...WHILE FZRA FURTHER INLAND WILL HOLD OFF                   
UNTIL ABOUT 08-09Z. SN AT KSWF WILL BE MIXING WITH FZRA AND PL                  
THROUGH 08Z...THEN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FZRA WILL BE EXPECTED                  
THROUGH THIS MORNING. RAIN MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES...RESULTING                
IN THE LOWERED CONDITIONS.                                                      
SE WINDS AT 5-10 KT WILL BE INCREASING TO 10-15 KT (15-20 KT AT                 
KNYC TERMINALS) TONIGHT.                                                        
60+ 2K FT LLJ KT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF TH REGION               
THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN LLWS ISSUES. WILL EXPECT 50-60 KT                   
WINDS AT 2K FT STARTING AT MANY TERMINALS TOWARDS DAYBREAK...                   
INCREASING TO 60-70 KT WINDS AT 2K FT BETWEEN 10-12Z. LLWS ISSUE                
DIMINISH AS LOW PRES DEPARTS. CIGS/VSBYS IMPROVE TO MVFR IN THE                 
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT WILL KEEP THE MENTION FOR SOME               
SHOWERS AS UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION.                              
COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 22-02Z. WINDS TURN NW              
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL BE INCREASING TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO               
20 KT DEVELOPING IN THE EVENING. KEPT THE MENTION OF MVFR VSBY DUE              
TO BR FOR THE EVENING...FIGURING THE COMBINATION OF CAA OVER A                  
SATURATED GROUND WOULD PRODUCE BR. WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO                
KEEP BR FROM FORMING AND WOULD KEEP IT FROM LASTING TOO MUCH PAST               
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.                                                      
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...                                      
VFR CIGS/VSBYS THEN IN PLACE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRI. ANOTHER                  
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT. HIGH                  
PRES RETURNS FOR SUN.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
SCA CONDITIONS WERE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS ALL WATERS THIS MORNING               
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT AND OCEAN BUOYS 44025 AND 44017 REPORTING SEAS              
OF 7 AND 5 FT...RESPECTIVELY. SEAS OF 3 FT WERE BEING REPORTED                  
ACROSS LONG ISLAND SOUND.                                                       
SFC WARM FRONT OVER CENTRAL NJ AT 09Z WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS               
BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND FROM THE SE TO SW DURING            
THIS TIME. FOR A BRIEF TIME...WINDS WILL DROP BELOW SCA THIS                    
AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT                 
MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS...FROM 18Z TO 22Z.                                      
COLD ADVECTION THIS EVENING AND A STRENGTHENING NW FLOW WILL BRING              
WINDS BACK UP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH A MARGINAL GALE ON               
THE OCEAN AND SCA ELSEWHERE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL                
AROUND 18Z THU. THE 00Z GFS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SECOND WAVE                  
DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING...THEN TAKING A            
TRACK SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE SE OF MONTAUK POINT BY 12Z THU.              
THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS LOW IS AN OUTLIER AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODEL                
SUITE AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE. THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF SEEING GALE              
FORCE WINDS ON THE OCEAN WATERS LOOKS TO BE FROM 06Z TO 18Z THU.                
HI PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS THU AFT AND NIGHT...THEN EAST OF               
THE WATERS BY 12Z FRI. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA              
FRI EVE WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION TO FOLLOW INTO SAT MORNING WITH              
SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY TO RETURN ON ALL WATERS. HI PRES BUILDS BACK              
IN SAT AFT AND NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW ON SUN.            
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
EVEN WITH MINIMAL QPF NO EXPECTED TONIGHT...STILL HAVE THE                      
POTENTIAL FOR 1.5 (NW) TO 2.5 INCHES (BAND FROM NEAR NYC TO NE CT)              
OF RAINFALL TODAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS COMBINED WITH               
SNOW MELT OR FALLING ON TOP OF ICE ENCRUSTED SNOW...PROMOTING MORE              
RUNOFF THAN USUAL...PRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING                    
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. FLASHY RIVERS COULD STILL BE IN FLOOD THIS               
EVENING...PLUS RESIDUAL FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS WARRANT CONTINUING              
FLOOD WATCH INTO TONIGHT...EVEN THOUGH PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IS               
GREATLY REDUCED. IF BANDING DOES DEVELOP...COULD END UP WITH VERY               
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...OF AN INCH OR MORE AN HOUR...THIS WILL ADD               
TO ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.                                        
AFTER THIS...NEXT POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS WITH COASTAL              
STORM SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                               
&&                                                                              
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY                    
     MORNING FOR CTZ005>012.                                                    
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR                    
     CTZ005>008.                                                                
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY                    
     MORNING FOR NYZ067>081.                                                    
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ067-               
     068.                                                                       
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ069-            
     070.                                                                       
NJ...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY                    
     MORNING FOR NJZ002>006-011.                                                
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ002.               
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ003-            
     004.                                                                       
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-           
     338-340-345.                                                               
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ350-             
     353-355.                                                                   
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR               
     ANZ350-353-355.                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...PFM                                                                  
NEAR TERM...PFM                                                                 
SHORT TERM...PFM                                                                
LONG TERM...PFM/MET                                                             
AVIATION...MPS                                                                  
MARINE...DW                                                                     
HYDROLOGY...PFM                                                                 
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
424 AM EST WED FEB 13 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST              
TONIGHT...BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE                 
WILL BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM               
AFFECTS THE AREA OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL                  
RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.                                         
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
FIRST BATCH OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED NE OF THE FORECAST               
AREA AS STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH THE UPPER JET AS WELL AS A                 
WEAK H500 SHORTWAVE MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE                 
WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT TODAY...THUS EVEN WEAK VERTICAL VELOCITIES                 
WILL FORM SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS. A LULL IN PRECIP                 
SHOULD OCCUR OVER MOST INLAND AREAS FOR THE MORNING HOURS...THEN                
ANOTHER BRIEF BATCH OF SHOWERS COULD MOVE THROUGH DURING THE                    
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD                
OF THE PRIMARY VORT. HAVE POPS TAPERING BACK PRETTY RAPIDLY THIS                
MORNING WITH MAINLY CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. ABUNDANT CLOUD                
COVER AND A RAIN-COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD ELIMINATE ANY                     
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...                        
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT RAPIDLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE                    
EVENING HOURS WITH STRONG NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND LOW-                 
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. A SOLID ADVECTION FREEZE IS EXPECTED TO               
OCCUR MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.                                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                        
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY...BRINGING WITH            
IT A VERY DRY AIRMASS. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE FRIDAY...ALLOWING           
A RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP.                                                       
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD DROP ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY THEN            
STALL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. DUE TO A LACK OF               
ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER               
FOR SATURDAY AND WILL FOLLOW SUIT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF                  
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE                  
BOUNDARY SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL FORECAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE              
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO               
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. WILL              
CONTINUE TO FORECAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS A MOISTURE RICH                     
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA.                                        
A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO               
EARLY MONDAY. ALONG WITH THE CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WILL KEEP            
MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST DURING              
THIS TIME PERIOD. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND WIND FIELDS LOOK RATHER                
IMPRESSIVE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT AS USUAL             
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE LACKING.                        
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS               
EXPECTED.                                                                       
AS FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE LONG TERM...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL                    
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN RISE               
ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY ONCE THE RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS...AND REMAIN ABOVE            
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COOLER WEATHER SHOULD THEN PREVAIL EARLY            
NEXT WEEK FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                     
MAIN BATCH OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE AND A              
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH IS PULLING OFF TO THE E OF CHS                    
TERMINAL EARLY THIS MORNING. ONLY LIGHT RAIN IS FALLING BEHIND                  
THIS AREA...INCLUDING THE SAV AIRPORT. BEHIND THIS AREA OF                      
ACTIVITY IS A LULL IN PRECIP BUT EXTENSIVE IFR CEILINGS. THUS WE                
EXPECT PRECIP TO TAPER OFF DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT CEILINGS               
LOWERING TO IFR AT BOTH SITES. A DYING PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF PRECIP               
MOVING ACROSS WESTERN GA MAY AFFECT EITHER TERM AFTER DAYBREAK BUT              
DO NOT THINK COVERAGE WILL BE VERY HIGH AT THAT POINT. SLOWLY                   
IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER TODAY AS WINDS VEER TO W AND DRIER AIR               
ADVECTS INTO THE AREA.                                                          
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO                      
PREVAIL...ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS OR LOWER ARE POSSIBLE             
IN SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN QUITE CALM FOR THE               
LAST SEVERAL HOURS. RUC-13 925 MB WIND SPEED PROG HAS BEEN DOING                
VERY WELL AT SHOWING AREAS OF GREATEST GUST POTENTIAL. THE NW LOBE              
OF A 50 KT JET IS JUST NOW PUSHING OFF TO THE E ACROSS OFFSHORE SC              
WATERS. WINDS AT BUOY 41004 HAVE HAD...BY FAR...THE HIGHEST WIND                
SPEEDS THIS MORNING WITH 15-20 KT THE GENERAL TREND. SEAS HAVE                  
REACHED A WHOPPING 17 FEET...INDICATING THE WINDS JUST SE OF THE                
BUOY ARE SOLIDLY AT GALE FORCE WHERE THE WATERS ARE MUCH WARMER                 
AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS STRONGEST. FOLLOWING THE RUC/S TREND                   
...LOW-LEVEL WINDS DROP OFF DRAMATICALLY THROUGH LATE MORNING.                  
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS...WE REALLY DO NOT ANTICIPATE SUSTAINED             
WINDS GETTING MUCH ABOVE 20 KT UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN                 
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND COLD ADVECTION IMPROVES MIXING                 
PROFILES. SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HARBOR TODAY DUE              
TO BETTER MIXING ALONG THE LAND-SEA INTERFACE. PLAN TO CARRY SMALL              
CRAFT ADVISORIES ALL WATERS TODAY...MAINLY FOR SEAS. DELAYED ONSET              
OF GALE WARNING FOR OFFSHORE GA WATERS UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON                
SINCE LOW-LEVEL JETTING WILL NOT SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS UNTIL                 
THEN. WILL HEADLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OFFSHORE GA WATERS                 
UNTIL GALE WARNING INITIATES.                                                   
COLD ADVECTION REALLY CRANKS UP IN EARNEST BETWEEN 00 AND 03Z THIS              
EVENING WHILE 925 MB WINDS ON THE NAM-12 ARE IN THE 25-30 KT                    
RANGE. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS TOWARD 06Z IS EXPECTED.                       
ANTICIPATING A LOW-BIAS IN MODEL WINDS WITH STRONG POST-FROPA COLD              
ADVECTION...WILL KEEP GALE WARNING FOR OFFSHORE GA WATERS FOR                   
TONIGHT. GALE FORCE WIND CRITERION IS EXPECTED TO MAINLY BE MET                 
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE PRETTY QUICKLY ACROSS              
ALL OF THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT WHEN LOW-LEVEL JET PULLS AWAY FROM               
THE WATERS AND COLD ADVECTION DIMINISHES.                                       
BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY AND             
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP             
ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY AND STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST                 
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE A STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST FLOW TO               
DEVELOP...AND WINDS COULD REACH 15-20 KT AT TIMES OVER PORTIONS OF              
THE COASTAL WATERS WITH ANY PINCHING OF THE GRADIENT. THE BOUNDARY              
WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY AS A COLD                 
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS ARE SHOWING VERY STRONG LOW              
LEVEL WINDS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY              
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE WATERS BEGINNING LATE                  
SUNDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330-          
     352-354.                                                                   
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ350.                   
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ374.             
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR             
     AMZ374.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JRL/JAQ                                                                         
</pre> ga                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
157 AM EST WED FEB 13 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH GA AND                
SC TONIGHT THEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON WED PULLING A COLD                
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA                  
INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN ADVANCE INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND              
WILL STALL OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LIFTING                 
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM THE                 
GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE LOW WILL                 
THEN DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE                 
WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.                                    
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...                                         
ISSUING AN UPDATE TO FORECAST TO REMOVE THUNDER FROM MOST AREAS                 
EXCEPT FAR EASTERN PORTIONS THROUGH DAYBREAK. INSTABILITY IS VERY               
MARGINAL DUE TO RAIN COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER AND UPPER DIVERGENCE                 
AHEAD OF THE JET STREAM IS NOW PUSHING OFF TO THE E OF THE AREA.                
ALSO HAVE LOWERED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR COASTAL CHARLESTON AND                  
COLLETON. LATEST SFC OBS ARE LESS THAN 15 KT ALONG THE                          
COAST...EVEN BEACH LOCATIONS SUCH AS ISLE OF PALMS AND SULLIVANS                
ISLAND. RUC-13 SHOWS THE 35 KT 925 MB JET IS NOW JUST BRUSHING FAR              
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WITH UPPER WINDS DECREASING AND POOR              
MIXING PROFILES...DO NOT EXPECT CRITERIA WINDS TO BE MET THROUGH                
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...                        
SFC LOW PRES AREA OVER THE GULF STATES WILL BE THRUST INTO NC BY                
DAYBREAK WED WHILE THE SHARP UPR TROF CROSSES THE MISS RIVER AND                
THE SFC CDFNT IS OVER CENTRAL SC AND ERN GA. THE BULK OF THE                    
PRECIP WILL BE OFFSHORE...THUS PRECIP CHCS DECREASE MAINLY BECAUSE              
OF LACK OF COVERAGE AS CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT SCAT SHWRS                
WILL BE LINGERING IN THE MRNG HOURS. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY DURING               
THE DAY TMRW...WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE BEHIND THE SFC LOW AND JUST                 
AHEAD OF THE NEGATIVELY-TILTING TROF MAY BRING A BRIEF BOUT OF                  
SHWRS INTO THE MID-LATE AFTN HOURS FOR MAINLY NRN SECTIONS OF THE               
CWFA. OTHERWISE...BY LATE AFTN SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT RATHER QUICKLY              
FROM S TO N AS THE CDFNT MOVES OFFSHORE. MILD TEMPS IN THE MRNG                 
WILL NOT RISE TOO MUCH BY TMRW AFTN...PRODUCING HIGHS ONLY                      
REACHING THE UPR 50S WELL INLAND TO MID 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST.                
SKIES WILL CONTINUE CLEARING OUT TMRW EVE AND TMRW NIGHT AS HIGH                
PRES APPROACHES FROM THE W. CAA WILL NOT BE ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE                 
WITH THIS HIGH PRES AIRMASS BEHIND THE COMPLEX LOW PRES SYSTEM...               
BUT IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO DROP MIN TEMPS WED NIGHT TO THE UPR 20S                
WELL INLAND TO THE MID 30S CLOSER TO THE COAST.                                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                  
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE                  
EXTENDED PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOLUTIONS THEN DIVERGING OVER             
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE             
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY                
NIGHT. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD               
THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AND STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA SATURDAY            
NIGHT. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD            
AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW SUIT ON MONDAY.            
HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION MONDAY             
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.                                                              
AS FOR FORECAST DETAILS...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST RAIN FREE                      
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. THE GFS              
IS MUCH MORE BULLISH WITH QPF AMOUNTS OVER THE WEEKEND THAN THE                 
ECMWF/CANADIAN/NOGAPS AND GIVEN LACK OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT IT                   
APPEARS THAT THE GFS IS OVERDONE. HAVE BACKED OFF POPS                          
ACCORDINGLY...AND HAVE CARRIED LOW CHANCE POPS BOTH SATURDAY AND                
SATURDAY NIGHT. TIMING ISSUES BEGIN TO CREEP INTO THE PICTURE SUNDAY            
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN ADVERTISING THE COLD                 
FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE ECMWF/CANADIAN/NOGAPS                   
SUGGESTING A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE 12Z GFS             
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FAVORED THE SLOWER FRONTAL PROGRESSION AND WILL                
FAVOR THIS SLOWER SOLUTION WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. GIVEN                    
UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST...WON/T FOCUS TOO MUCH ON              
THE TIMING DETAILS AT THIS POINT AND WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS SUNDAY              
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH RAIN FREE WEATHER TO FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT              
AND TUESDAY.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                     
MAIN BATCH OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE AND A              
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH IS PULLING OFF TO THE E OF CHS                    
TERMINAL EARLY THIS MORNING. ONLY LIGHT RAIN IS FALLING BEHIND                  
THIS AREA...INCLUDING THE SAV AIRPORT. BEHIND THIS AREA OF                      
ACTIVITY IS A LULL IN PRECIP BUT EXTENSIVE IFR CEILINGS. THUS WE                
EXPECT PRECIP TO TAPER OFF DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT CEILINGS               
LOWERING TO IFR AT BOTH SITES. A DYING PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF PRECIP               
MOVING ACROSS WESTERN GA MAY AFFECT EITHER TERM AFTER DAYBREAK BUT              
DO NOT THINK COVERAGE WILL BE VERY HIGH AT THAT POINT. SLOWLY                   
IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER TODAY AS WINDS VEER TO W AND DRIER AIR               
ADVECTS INTO THE AREA.                                                          
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY               
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE                   
POSSIBLE IN PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
ISSUING QUICK UPDATE TO REPLACE GALES FOR NEARSHORE WATERS AND                  
HARBOR WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. LATEST FEW HOURS OF CONDITIONS              
OVER THESE AREAS SHOW WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.               
THE ONLY REAL STRONG WINDS ARE OVER BUOY 41004 WHERE THE RUC-13                 
DEPICTS A 40-45 KT 925 MB JET. THE WATER IS ALSO QUITE A BIT                    
WARMER BEYOND 20 NM FROM SHORE. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET PUSHES E OF                
THE WATERS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE WINDS              
IN NEARSHORE WATERS RAPIDLY DIMINISHES.                                         
ONCE THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE...SEAS WILL DROP OFF RATHER                       
STEADILY LATE TMRW INTO TMRW EVE THEN WIND SPEEDS WILL FOLLOW TMRW              
NIGHT INTO THU MRNG. FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL BE AN EXTENSIVE AREA              
OF HIGH PRESSURE...THUS BRINGING ALL MARINE ZONES BELOW HEADLINE                
CRITERIA BY DAYBREAK ON THU.                                                    
EXTENDED MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER                
FEATURE OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAK                   
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WATERS                         
SATURDAY...THEN STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.                  
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN LIFT BACK NORTHWARD THROUGH THE                 
WATERS ON SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW                   
SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY               
WINDS WILL INCREASE QUITE A BIT LATE SUNDAY AS THE WARM FRONT                   
PUSHES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY              
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR WINDS/SEAS OR A COMBINATION OF THE TWO                 
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330-          
     352-354.                                                                   
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ350.                   
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JRL                                                                             
</pre> ga                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
201 AM MST WED FEB 13 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...00Z H5 ANALYSIS INDICATING VERY LARGE HEIGHT FALLS                
ACROSS THE PAC NW WHILE WATER VAPOR/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING ROBUST MID/UPPER       
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PAC NW/NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION EARLY              
THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD               
OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH PRESSURE FALLS OVER NORTHEAST                 
COLORADO LATE IN THE PERIOD. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT                           
TIGHTENS...SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 MPH ACROSS THE            
AREA TODAY. A SOUTHWEST COMPONENT WEIGHTED ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES             
MAY LEAD TO A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING 60 DEGREES.                                
ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN              
PLAINS ON THURSDAY...HOWEVER THE H85 THERMAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN                 
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR              
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. LITTLE IF ANY INSOLATION IS EXPECTED WITH STRONG         
LOW LEVEL CAA IN POST-FRONTAL REGIME. A PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL SNOW             
STILL APPEARS ON TRACK WEIGHTED ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES AFTER                  
09-11Z AS H7 BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND TRANSIENT               
AREA OF MID LVL FRONTOGENESIS IS JUXTAPOSED WITH STRONGER LARGE                 
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT EVIDENT IN THE H5-H3 DIV Q FIELDS.                     
CROSS-SECTIONS OF GEO MOMENTUM/EQUIV POT TEMP TAKEN NORMAL TO H85-H3            
THICKNESS SUGGEST THE BEST RESPONSE TO THE FORCING WILL BE ACROSS               
EASTERN COLORADO GENERALLY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL KEEP              
THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS (1-2 INCHES) WEIGHTED OVER THE THE FAR                
WESTERN ZONES.                                                                  
A FEW FLURRIES MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON THURSDAY BEFORE             
SUBSIDENCE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH A COLD NIGHT EXPECTED. HIGHS             
ON FRIDAY WILL BE CHALLENGING AS THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT MAY BISECT               
THE AREA LEADING TO LARGE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES. WILL GENERALLY               
FOLLOW THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 40                  
NORTHWEST TO AROUND 30 EAST.                                                    
DAYS 4 THROUGH 7...NO CHANGES.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAF...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE               
TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL START TO PICK UP DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY             
SUBSIDING AFTER SUNSET WEDNESDAY EVENING. SHORTWAVE TROUGH                      
APPROACHES TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD BUT CURRENT THINKING                
WOULD HOLD ANY PRECIP CHANCES AND LOWER CIGS OFF UNTIL AFTER 06Z                
THURSDAY.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MCGUIRE/FOLTZ                                                                   
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1210 AM EST WED FEB 13 2008                                                     
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS                                        
.UPDATE (ISSUED AT 1025 PM EST)...                                              
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE HEADING ENE               
THRU LWR MI WHILE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS DROPPING SE THRU MANITOBA INTO              
NRN ONTARIO. PATCHY -SN/FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH LWR MI SHORTWAVE               
SHOULD EXIT THE ERN FCST AREA IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS. ATTENTION              
THEN TURNS TO THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NRN ONTARIO THRU FAR NW             
MN...ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE. KDLH RADAR AND SFC OBS                 
INDICATED -SN/FLURRIES AHEAD OF FRONT IN NRN MN. THE -SN IS                     
OCCURRING IN A NARROW RIBBON WEAK DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONVERGENCE AND            
MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT (280K THETA SFC) PER 00Z RUC. AS FORCING AND            
ISENTROPIC ASCENT SPREAD E OVERNIGHT...850MB TEMPS AROUND -14C WILL             
BE PLENTY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LAKE ENHANCEMENT AS THE COLD FRONT             
CROSSES WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. PER 00Z RUC/NAM...FRONT SHOULD REACH THE             
KEWEENAW IN THE 10-12Z TIME FRAME. EXPECT A BRIEF BURST OF MDT/HVY              
SNOW WITH FROPA. CERTAINLY COULD SEE A QUICK 1-3 INCHES OF                      
ACCUMULATION...ESPECIALLY WITH FAVORABLE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH TEMPS            
IN THE LAYER OF ASCENT. CONSIDERED AN ADVY AS LATE NIGHT THRU WED               
MORNING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON THE KEWEENAW MAY APPROACH ADVY LEVELS.            
HOWEVER...SINCE INVERSION WILL BE CRASHING QUICKLY TO 3.5-4KFT                  
BEHIND FRONT...WILL HOLD OFF AN ADVY FOR NOW. TO THE E...INCREASED              
POPS TO LIKELY FOR ALGER/LUCE WED AFTN UNDER NW FLOW BEHIND COLD                
FRONT.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 416 PM EST)...                                      
SYNOPSIS...                                                                     
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM              
CA INTO THE NRN ROCKIES/ALBERTA AND A TROUGH FROM CNTRL CANADA INTO             
THE MS VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE FROM SW WI INTO ERN IA SUPPORTED AN AREA             
OF LIGHT SNOW FROM ERN WI INTO SRN UPPER MI. AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE              
WAS MOVING SE THROUGH SRN MANITOBA. 700-500 QVECTOR CONV AND 280K               
ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ALSO HAS PRODUCED SOME             
LIGHT SNOW WITH VSBY INTO THE 1-3SM RANGE AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT.              
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WED)...                                                 
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE LIGHT SNOW CHANCES SE THIS EVENING AND LES               
INTO NW UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT INTO WED.                                         
EXPECT LIGHT SNOW WITH THE WI SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH THE SE PORTION OF            
THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. RADAR AND UPSTREAM OB            
TRENDS SUGGEST THAT ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL...LESS THAN             
A HALF INCH. WINDS SHOULD BACK ENOUGH TO THE NE TO REDUCE                       
CHANCES FOR LES OR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OFF OF LAKE MI.                           
LATE TONIGHT THE SHORTWAVE AND SFC FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WRN LAKE                
SUPERIOR WITH WINDS VEERING FROM SW TO WNW AROUND 12Z. 850 MB TEMPS             
TO AROUND -15C BY 12Z SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING LES POTENTIAL INTO              
NW UPPER MI. SNOW GROWTH PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE BTWN 09Z-15Z WITH             
THE 2K-8K FT LAYER IN THE -12C TO -17C RANGE. HOWEVER...THE PERIOD              
OF BEST LOW LEVEL CONV IS RELATIVELY BRIEF AND THE DEEPER MOISTURE              
MOVES OUT BEFORE THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. VERY DRY AIR MOVING IN BY              
MIDDAY ALONG WITH A SHORTER FETCH AS WINDS VEER NW AND INVERSION                
HEIGHTS FALLING TO AROUND 4K FT...SHOULD DECREASE SNOWFALL                      
RATES/COVERAGE WITH MAINLY SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES BY AFTERNOON. WRLY                
WINDS JUST BRUSHING THE SHORELINE E OF MUNISING WILL VEER NW IN THE             
AFTERNOON. AGAIN...BY THAT TIMES...SIGNIFICANT DRY ADVECTION AND                
LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL LIMIT LES POTENTIAL WITH ONLY LIGHT             
ACCUMULATIONS.                                                                  
LONG TERM (WED NIGHT THRU TUE)...                                               
AS POINTED OUT BY HPC...ECMWF IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION THROUGH THE             
EXTENDED. THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL MOVE OVER                
NORTHERN ONTARIO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE WRAPPING AROUND            
THIS LOW SWEEPS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED              
WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE                    
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT STRETCHING                
FROM SOUTHEAST ONTARIO THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO THE LOW               
OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE             
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW. THE STRONGEST ISENTROPIC              
ASCENT WILL STILL BE OVER WISCONSIN.                                            
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHEAST HUDSON BAY DIRECTING A               
SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE U.P. ON THURSDAY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE               
INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE OVER THE FORECAST IN             
THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW. GUIDANCE SHOWING THE DEEPEST                    
MOISTURE WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. DELTA-T`S WILL              
AROUND -23C. PLAN TO GO WITH A WATCH FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN                   
COUNTIES AS THIS WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE DEEPEST MOISTURE FIELD AND              
THE AREA OF STRONGEST 850-500MB Q-VECTORS CONVERGENCE DURING THE                
DAY.                                                                            
AFTER THE SURFACE LOW SETTLE INTO LOWER MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY...THE              
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SWEEP INTO             
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING FOR             
LES TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN U.P. AND EAST OF MUNISING AGAIN                 
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL SHIFT INTO WEST                   
CENTRAL QUEBEC AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE RACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.               
THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BACK WEST ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE DESCENDS ON             
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE DELTA-T`S WILL BE AROUND 20C. WINDS WILL             
CONTINUE TO BACK TO THE WEST. THUS THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL END AS            
THE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH.                                                        
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE INTO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE              
SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE LOWER GREAT               
LAKES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EARLY AND BECOME OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST                
LATE. THE WATER-850MB DELTA-T`S WILL BE AROUND 20C OVER EASTERN LAKE            
SUPERIOR TO AROUND 14C OVER THE WEST. STILL BOTH COOL ENOUGH TO                 
GENERATE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW. HOWEVER...WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND              
WINDS BACKING SOUTHWEST...THE LES WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE U.P.                    
MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND             
SWEEP INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN ONTARIO ON SATURDAY. WEAK             
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE            
DRAWN INTO THE AREA WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL GENERATE SOME SNOWS            
OVER THE AREA. SINCE THE WEST END OF THE FORECAST AREA IS STILL FAR             
ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE FRONT THE CHANCES WILL STILL BE SLIGHT.                    
THE LOW AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE U.P.                    
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO EASTERN ONTARIO ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A                
TROUGH DEEPENING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE OVER WESTERN               
ONTARIO AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT AND               
THROUGH THE U.P. ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST FOLLOWING THE            
FROPA. THE CHANCE OF SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.                 
COLD AIR WILL STREAM INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A LOW               
LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN ONTARIO AND THE 850MB               
TEMPERATURES DROP TO AROUND -20C OVER THE WESTERN LAKE. THIS SHOULD             
GENERATE LES...MAINLY OVER AREAS PRONE TO LES WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW.            
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION               
THROUGH TUESDAY...CONTINUING TO PULL COLD AIR INTO THE FORECAST                 
AREA. A COLD POOL OF LOW LEVEL AIR WILL BE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WITH            
THE THERMAL TROUGH EXTENDING INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. 850MB                  
TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER TO -24C OVER THE WESTERN LAKE. LES WILL                 
CONTINUE. HOWEVER...THE VERY COLD AIR WILL BE PARTICULARLY DRY SO DO            
NOT EXPECT HEAVY SNOWFALL. AT THIS TIME THE MODELS ARE NOT CALLING              
FOR STRONG WINDS.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BEGIN TO TAKE ON AN OVERWATER COMPONENT AHEAD OF             
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...MVFR CIGS AND -SHSN SHOULD DEVELOP AT KCMX             
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS. COLD FRONT WILL PASS LATE IN THE                 
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING...BRINGING HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT -SHSN. AROUND THE            
TIME OF FROPA...EXPECT A PERIOD OF MDT SNOW REDUCING VIS TO LIFR.               
IFR VIS IN -SHSN MAY THEN CONTINUE WELL INTO THE AFTN BEFORE                    
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR LATE AS WINDS VEER MORE NRLY (A LESS FAVORABLE              
DIRECTION FOR LAKE EFFECT -SHSN THERE). VIS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR IN            
THE EVENING AS WINDS BECOME LGT/VRBL AND -SHSN DIMINISH.                        
AT KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE UNTIL COLD FROPA LATE IN               
THE MORNING. AFTER FROPA...EXPECT MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY A FEW                  
FLURRIES THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD...BUT WOULD NOT BE               
SURPRISED TO SEE SEVERAL EPISODES OF VFR CONDITIONS.                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
LOW PRES MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO TO JAMES BAY WILL DRAG A COLD               
FRONT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT AND WED MORNING. SW WINDS               
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 KT RANGE OVER THE W BY                  
MIDNIGHT AND VEER NW AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE WINDS WILL                 
DIMINISH LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE                
REGION. LOW PRES MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THU WILL                
BRING AN INCREASE IN N WINDS TO 15 TO 25 KT. OTHERWISE...WINDS                  
SHOULD REMAIN BLO 30 KT UNTIL A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES              
EASTWARD THROUGH NRN ONTARIO OR LAKE SUPERIOR LATE SATURDAY INTO                
SUNDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
 WINTER STORM WATCH LATE WED NIGHT THRU THU EVENING MIZ010>013.                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...ROLFSON                                                                
SHORT TERM...JLB                                                                
LONG TERM...DLG                                                                 
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...JLB                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
330 AM EST WED FEB 13 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH                 
CAROLINA INTO THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH               
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.               
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ACROSS OUR AREA TO            
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.                     
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
AS OF 220 AM WEDNESDAY... THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EVOLVING LARGELY              
AS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING... WITH THE FULL LATITUDE MID LEVEL              
TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE MISS VALLEY THEN SHARPENING AS IT SWINGS             
THROUGH NC TONIGHT. SEVERAL WEAK LOWS EXIST ALONG THE COLD FRONT...             
CURRENTLY RUNNING FROM E OH TO E TN TO S MS... AND ANOTHER LEE LOW              
APPEARS TO BE FORMING ALONG THE WEDGE FRONT OVER UPSTATE SC INTO THE            
SRN NC FOOTHILLS. DESPITE PRECIPITATION FALLING THROUGH 10-15C AIR              
JUST 0.5-1.0 KM ALOFT... THE STABLE WEDGE REMAINS LOCKED IN OVER THE            
WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE SURFACE TEMPS HOLD IN THE LOW-MID 30S. THE               
WEDGE FRONT HAS MOVED LITTLE IN THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS... STRETCHING            
FROM JUST SE OF WADESBORO / SANFORD / RALEIGH / HALIFAX. AS ONE                 
MIGHT EXPECT... THE LARGE SCALE MODELS ARE DEPICTING THE DETAILS OF             
THE WEDGE REGIME POORLY. THE RUC13 IS DOING MUCH BETTER AND IT                  
INDICATES THAT THE STABLE POOL WILL NOT BECOME DISLODGED FROM THE               
FAR NW PIEDMONT PRIOR TO COLD FRONT PASSAGE. 925-850 MB WINDS ARE               
FROM THE SOUTH... NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE WEDGE FRONT... AND ARE                 
EXPECTED TO VEER TO WSW AS A LOW LEVEL TROUGH... LOCATED ALONG THE              
AL/GA BORDER AT 00Z... PIVOTS NORTHEAST AND THROUGH THE CWA LATER               
THIS MORNING. ALL OF THIS MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES IN THE TRIAD ARE              
ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE THROUGH THE 30S... AND THAT MAY BE                        
OPTIMISTIC... BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TOWARD MIDDAY...             
AND THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LEE LOW ALONG THE WEDGE FRONT               
WOULD ONLY REINFORCE THIS IDEA. TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHEAST                   
HOWEVER WILL UNDOUBTEDLY HOLD IN OR RISE THROUGH THE LOW-MID 60S AS             
INTENSE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PERSISTS.                                  
REGARDING RAIN CHANCES AND THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS... LATEST                  
GUIDANCE AND TRENDS ARE ON PACE WITH THE FORECAST WITH WIDESPREAD               
RAIN... OCCASIONALLY MODERATE AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE OVER             
200% OF NORMAL... LASTING THROUGH THE MORNING. DYNAMIC FORCING IS               
STRONG WITH MODEL WIND PROGS ON THE 1.5 PVU SURFACE DEPICTING                   
IDEALLY JUXTAPOSED POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS OVER NC THIS                      
MORNING... HOWEVER THE CHANCES OF STRONG CONVECTION AND ISOLATED                
SEVERE STORMS TODAY ARE HIGHLY RELIANT ON THE DEGREE OF POTENTIAL               
INSTABILITY. 00Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS AND LATEST RUC-ADJUSTED PLOTS               
FROM SPC SHOW JUST 100 J/KG OF CAPE OR LESS (AND THIS IS ELEVATED               
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WEST OF THE WEDGE FRONT) ALTHOUGH ANY                     
ADDITIONAL BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING WILL PUMP UP THESE NUMBERS QUICKLY            
IN THE WARM SECTOR... AND BUFR SOUNDINGS AT FAY SHOW A FEW HUNDRED              
J/KG OF CAPE BY THIS AFTERNOON. OF COURSE THE LOW LEVEL STORM                   
RELATIVE HELICITY IS OVER 500 M2/S2 NEAR AND NW OF THE WEDGE                    
FRONT... SO IF WE CAN GET ANY DISCRETE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS GOING...             
THEY`LL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR QUICK SPINUP IF THEY TRAVERSE THIS               
ZONE OF HIGH VORTICITY. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH NEAR A SURFACE LOW              
CENTER EXPECTED TO SPIN UP OFF THE SC COAST THIS MORNING...                     
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAX NOTED ON WATER VAPOR                  
IMAGERY TRACKING UP THE COAST. LATER TODAY... AS THE 80+ KT 500 MB              
JET WRAPS AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW UP INTO ERN NC... HODOGRAPHS WILL            
BECOME STRONGLY LINEAR WITH 60+ KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR... AND A FEW            
BOWING SEGMENTS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS... MAINLY ALONG/EAST            
OF I-95 THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SREF PROBABILITIES OF NEGATIVE LI                  
VALUES AND CAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG ARE BETTER THAN 50%... AND WHERE A            
POOL OF 100-150 M MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL MOVE IN LATE IN THE               
DAY.                                                                            
AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN 2 AND 8 PM... THE LOW LEVEL COLD             
AIR WILL SLOWLY FILTER INTO THE CWA WITH THE TERRAIN TEMPORARILY                
HOLDING OFF THE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THERE IS SOME                   
CONCERN ABOUT A POSSIBLE END AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIP                 
TONIGHT. THE EXTENT AND SPEED OF THE COLDER AIR PUSHING IN AND THE              
POTENTIAL RAPID DEEPENING OF A SURFACE LOW OVER OR JUST OFF THE NE              
NC COAST... AS THE DEEPENING MID LEVEL LOW SHIFTS OVER THE AREA...              
BOTH POSE SOME CONCERN. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE COLD AIR WILL            
LARGELY BE CHASING THE BEST MOISTURE... AND FORECAST BUFR SOUNDINGS             
FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE WANING MOISTURE IN THE CRYSTAL               
GROWTH AREA ALOFT. BUT GIVEN ENOUGH DYNAMIC LIFT PRODUCED BY THE MID            
LEVEL LOW... THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SATURATION IN THIS AREA.               
BASED ON THIS... AND ON THE OVERALL VIGOROUS AND HIGHLY ANOMALOUS               
NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM... WILL INCLUDE A SHORT PERIOD OF                         
INCONSEQUENTIAL RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE NORTH BEFORE PRECIP ENDS                   
OVERNIGHT. LOWS 28-37 ACROSS THE CWA. -GIH                                      
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY... A CHILLY NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SURFACE HIGH            
BUILDS QUICKLY INTO AND OVER NC THURSDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE                    
DEPARTING MID LEVEL TROUGH... SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND STRONG                      
SUBSIDENCE WITH A VERY DRY COLUMN WILL EQUATE TO CONSIDERABLE                   
SUNSHINE. THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE SUPPORTS HIGHS CLOSE TO                 
NORMAL THURSDAY... 52-58. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE              
THURSDAY AND RETURN FLOW COMMENCES... LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES BOUNCE              
UP AROUND 10-15 M ABOVE NORMAL... SUPPORTING HIGHS AROUND 61-66 WITH            
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. -GIH                                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                    
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY... OUR NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM... NOW              
PUSHING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW... DROPS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST               
AND DEEPENS FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE... A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT             
WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT WITH A PRECEDING DRY               
AND STABLE AIR MASS WITH DOWNSLOPE 850 MB FLOW... ALONG WITH A LACK             
OF SIGNIFICANT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OR OTHER LARGE SCALE FORCING                  
MECHANISM... THIS FRONT SHOULD COME THROUGH LARGELY DRY BUT WITH                
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWS 34-40.                               
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES DROP BACK BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT AND               
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FOLLOW SUIT... ONLY RISING TO 48-56 AS A POLAR              
SOURCE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY             
CLOUDY FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY... PRIMARILY OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS                 
CLOSER TO THE FRONT... AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS ENE FROM THE               
SOUTHWEST LOW.                                                                  
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO PART WAYS WITH THE SPEED OF THIS STORM            
SYSTEM AS IT EJECTS THROUGH TX INTO THE OH VALLEY AND INTERIOR NE...            
ONLY NOW IT`S THE ECMWF THAT IS A TAD FASTER. BUT THEY DO SEEM TO BE            
CONVERGING ON A COMMON SOLUTION. THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW IS LIKELY             
TO RIDE NORTHEAST AND DAMPEN INTO A SHORTWAVE PASSING JUST TO OUR NW            
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT... AS THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO                
DEEP TROUGHING OVER ALL OF EASTERN NOAM. THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED              
TO OUR NE IS EXPECTED TO NOSE BACK INTO THE PIEDMONT IN A DAMMING               
FASHION... AND AS RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY WITH IMPROVING                   
OVERRUNNING... A DAMMING REGIME IS LIKELY TO ENSUE. SURFACE                     
CYCLOGENESIS IS LIKELY SOMEWHERE OVER THE WEST GULF COAST EARLY                 
SUNDAY... AND WHILE THIS LOW IS LIKELY TO TRACK ALONG OR JUST EITHER            
SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS ALONG A COLD FRONT... WHETHER IT ENDS UP AS            
A MILLER TYPE-A OR TYPE-B CYCLOGENESIS PATTERN IS STILL UP IN THE               
AIR. WILL HAVE INCREASING POPS FROM CHANCE SUNDAY TO LOW END LIKELY             
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. EXPECT BLUSTERY NW LOW LEVEL FLOW BEHIND              
THIS SYSTEM LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH                
AXIS PUSHING THROUGH... AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WELL BELOW                   
NORMAL. -GIH                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                     
AS OF 200 AM WEDNESDAY... SHARP CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE             
CWA DUE IMPART TO HIGH PRESSURE WEDGED OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF              
THE CWA...COOLER AIR AND WARM/STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH THE EASTERN              
PORTION... WARMER AIR.  AS A RESULT OF THIS WEATHER PATTERN... INT              
AND GSO WILL HAVE LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING. WITH                     
TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND FREEZING THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SOME            
FREEZING RAIN. RDU WILL SERVE AS THE TRANSITION ZONE WITH LIFR TO               
IFR CONDITIONS... WHILE FAY AND RWI... WHO WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF            
THE FRONT WILL EXPERIENCE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW            
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER             
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE MORNING.                
AS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN TENNESSEE MOVES SLOWLY EAST... THE            
WEDGE SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE LATE MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY THROUGH             
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA MOVES WEST... SQUEEZING OUT THE                  
WEDGE. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA MAINLY DURING THE                
AFTERNOON... RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA... BRINGING THE                      
POSSIBILITY OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED                      
THUNDERSTORMS.                                                                  
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE                
AREA FROM THE WEST... HOWEVER SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD            
LEAD TO SOME CLOUD BASES BETWEEN 25 HUNDRED AND 5 THOUSAND FEET                 
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING... OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL                 
PREVAIL THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.                                  
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OFFSHORE               
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES DRIFTS               
EAST AND SOUTHEAST. AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA WITH THE                
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA... MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE               
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.                    
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD                                                            
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD                                                           
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD                                                          
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD                                                           
AVIATION...RHJ                                                                  
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                       
335 AM EST WED FEB 13 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK UP THE EAST COAST TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL              
PUSH THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA ON FRIDAY. A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM                  
ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL TRACK NORTHWARD TOWARDS PENNSYLVANIA BY               
LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...                                                   
RADAR SHOWING TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF PRECIP THIS MORNING. TO THE                 
WEST...BAND OF 850-700MB FGEN /ASSOCIATED WITH JET STREAK RIGHT                 
ENTRANCE REGION/ IS PRODUCING A BAND OF ENHANCED PRECIP ALONG COLD              
FRONT. MIXED PRECIP IN ADVANCE OF FRONT QUICKLY TURNING TO A                    
PERIOD OF SNOW WITH FROPA. OVER SOUTHEAST PA...SIG ICING EVENT                  
UNDERWAY...AS LL JET TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVR STUBBORN                
POOL OF COLD AIR AT SFC.                                                        
SFC TEMPS HAVE BEEN RISING STEADILY OVR SE PA DURING THE LAST FEW               
HOURS...AND SUSPECT A CHANGEOVER TO PLAIN RAIN OVR THE LOWER SUSQ               
VALLEY BEFORE DAWN BASED ON LATEST RUC13 AND NAM12 SFC PROGS. WILL              
LIKELY BE ABLE TO CANCEL ICE STORM WARNING BEFORE IT/S 14Z                      
EXPIRATION TIME.                                                                
HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND WINT WX ADVISORY THRU NOON FOR THE BULK OF               
CENTRAL PA WITH EXCEPTION OF THE SUSQ VALLEY. IN THIS REGION SREF               
2M TEMPS PROGGED TO REMAIN BLW 0C UNTIL LATE AM. PRECIP ASSOCIATED              
WITH ABOVE MENTIONED JET ENTRANCE REGION HAS ALREADY OVERSPREAD                 
THE NW MTNS AND SHOULD MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS ARND 12Z. LATEST              
OBS OVER SW PA SUGGEST PRECIP MAY BEGIN AS RAIN OVER THE LAUREL                 
HIGHLANDS. HOWEVER...RUC13/NAM12 SUGGEST LL COLD AIR SHOULD REMAIN              
ENTRENCHED ELSEWHERE. RAIN/FZRA WILL TURN TO A PERIOD OF SNOW                   
BEFORE ENDING...AS COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU LATER THIS MORNING. A                 
LIGHT ACCUM OF ARND AN INCH OR SO SEEMS LIKELY...MAINLY OVR THE                 
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT NORTH AND WESTWARD.                       
BACK EDGE OF PRECIP WILL PUSH INTO THE SUSQ VALLEY THIS AFTN AS                 
SECONDARY SFC LO RIDES UP THE EAST COAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST               
A CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW LIKELY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF                  
SULLIVAN/SCHUYLKILL COUNTIES...WHERE A LIGHT ACCUM POSSIBLE.                    
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...                                  
AS MID LVL LOW CENTER CUTS OFF SOUTH OF PA THIS EVENING...CAN/T                 
RULE OUT LINGERING LGT PRECIP OVR THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY                         
ASSOCIATED WITH DEFORMATION ZONE. THERMAL PROFILES AT THAT TIME BECOME          
COLD ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE                
SLGHT CHC CATEGORY BASED ON LATEST SREF QPF PLUME DATA...WHICH                  
SHOW LITTLE CHC OF PRECIP AFTER 00Z. RIDGING AT SFC AND ALOFT                   
SHOULD PROVIDE FAIR AND SEASONAL CONDS THURSDAY.                                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                  
A COLD FRONT COULD WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCT SNOW SHWRS                        
FRIDAY...MAINLY OVR THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD               
PROVIDE FAIR AND CHILLY CONDS ON SATURDAY. MED RANGE ENS DATA                   
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE CHC FOR A SIG PRECIP EVENT LATE SUNDAY OR              
EARLY MONDAY...AS DIGGING TROF OVR THE MIDWEST SPAWNS AN EAST                   
COAST STORM. LATEST GEFS DATA AND OPER EC SUGGEST A PRIMARY LO                  
TRACK WEST OF PA...WITH POSS COASTAL REDEVELOPMENT. SUCH A                      
SCENARIO FAVORS AT LEAST SOME MIXED PRECIP OVR THE BULK OF CENTRAL              
PA...WITH MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                     
WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR CONDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. BANDS OF                  
FREEZING RAIN AFFECTING SERN AND NWRN CORNERS OF CWA...MDT AND BFD              
TAF SITES RESPECTIVELY. ELSEWHERE VERY LOW CIGS AND SOME FOG ARE                
THE RULE. EXPECT THIS SCENARIO TO CHANGE ONLY SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT              
FEW HOURS...WITH WESTERN BAND EVENTUALLY SLIDING EAST AND                       
AFFECTING JST...AOO...UNV AND IPT WITH SOME LIGHT FZRA BEFORE                   
SUNRISE.                                                                        
SOME IMPROVEMENT ON WED AS STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY LIFTS AWAY FROM                  
STATE. TEMPS WILL WARM AND ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON               
THE LIGHT SIDE. CONDITIONS MAINLY IN THE IFR AND MVFR RANGE EARLY               
WITH IMPROVEMENT TO WIDESPREAD MVFR SOME VFR BY LATE AFTN..AS THE               
COASTAL LOW TAKES OVER.                                                         
THE UPR TROF PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA BY THUR WITH IMPROVEMENT                   
XPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. SOME LOW CIGS/-SHSN MAY LINGER AT                
JST/BFD. A RETURN TO VFR LATER THUR INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRES              
BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.                                                 
ANOTHER LOW PRES SYS AND ATTENDANT FRONT ARE FCST TO MOVE THRU FRI              
INTO SAT ACCOMPANIED BY REDUCED CIGS/VIS IN RA/SN SHWRS. LINGERING              
-SHSN IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA COULD KEEP BFD/JST MVFR THRU EARLY               
SAT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM SAT AFTN THROUGH MID DAY SUNDAY                
BRINGING PERHAPS THE BEST CHANCE AT SOME DECENT FLYING CONDS IN                 
THIS FCST PD.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR PAZ004>006-                    
010>012-017>019-024>027-033>035-037-041-042-045-046.                            
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ028-036-                   
049>053-056>059-063>066.                                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD                                                           
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD                                                          
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD                                                         
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD                                                          
AVIATION...GARTNER/MARTIN                                                       
</pre> pa                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
346 AM EST WED FEB 13 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST LATE TODAY...AS HIGH                  
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.  THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL              
MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY ALLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO CROSS FRIDAY                 
NIGHT.  LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANYING THE NEXT FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM               
THE WEST TO START NEXT WEEK.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
COLD AIR DAMMING HANGING TOUGH ACROSS THE AREA. BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT            
WILL OCCUR DURING THE MORNING...WITH DRY SLOT AND WEAKENING LIFT FOR            
THE AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH CAT POP EARLY...THEN DECREASING TO CHC              
ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON. COLD             
AIR MOVES INTO THE MTNS BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY...SO HAVE PRECIP                 
TRANSITIONING FROM LIQUID TO A WINTRY MIX DURING THE DAY. EXPECT THE            
LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE MAINLY LIQUID...WHILE THE HIGHER                      
ELEVATIONS COULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW. THAT SAID...QPF WILL BE VERY               
LIGHT. ALSO...TEMPS START OUT THE DAY QUITE WARM...SO NOT EXPECTING             
ANY ACCUMULATIONS ON ROADWAYS THIS AFTERNOON.                                   
ELSEWHERE...HAVE GONE WITH A TEMP AND WIND TREND THAT FOLLOWS THE               
RUC EARLY AND THE MAV LATE WHICH HAVE CAUGHT ON TO THE CAD. EVEN                
WITH THAT...HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...BUT                 
BELOW NORMAL OVER THE MTNS.                                                     
ADDITIONALLY...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE MTNS. HAVE CANCELED             
THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY THIS               
AFTERNOON. WILL LIKELY NEED AT LEAST A LAKE WIND ADVISORY. WILL NOT             
ISSUE WITH THIS PACKAGE THOUGH SO THERE CAN BE A BREAK BETWEEN                  
ISSUANCES AND HOPEFULLY AVOID CONFUSION. MAY ISSUE BEFORE 7 AM AFTER            
LOOKING AT 06Z GUIDANCE.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...                               
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A LIMITED NW              
FLOW EVENT CONTINUING AFTER 00Z THU. LLVL MOISTURE IS A BIT OF A                
CONCERN AS ONLY LEVELS BELOW H92 SHOULD BE ABOVE 80 PERCENT RH...BUT            
NW ORTHOGONAL FLOW WILL BE STRONG THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. THE SHREF               
MEAN QPF STAYS ABOVE THE SPREAD THROUGH 06Z...BUT QUICKLY LESSENS               
RH VALUES THEREAFTER. SO...QPF AMOUNTS WERE TAKEN DOWN A TAD WITH               
BASICALLY LESS THAN A COUPLE TENTHS OF CONTINUING SNOWFALL EXPECTED             
AFTER 00Z. THE LLVL THERMAL TROF BEGINS TO MOVE NORTH AFTER 00Z AND             
ATTENDANT CAA WEAKENS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. SOUNDINGS INDICATE                 
SHALLOW MIXING AND MOMENTUM TRANSFERS DECREASING THROUGH DAYBREAK.              
HOWEVER...THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT SHOULD SEE WIND GUSTS ON              
THE ORDER OF 35 TO 40 KTS...DECREASING TO LESS THAN 15 KTS BY 12Z.              
RISING HEIGHTS DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY THU AND FLAT H5 RIDGING                  
PERSISTS THROUGH FRI. DECENT WAA IS NOTED BY BOTH THE NAM AND GFS               
BELOW H85 AND MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME IN WARMER FOR THU MAX              
TEMPS. THE MAX T GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED UP A DEGREE OR TWO CWFA                    
WIDE...WHICH WILL BE ABOUT 5 F ABOVE NORMAL. THE BIG STORY THU WILL             
BE HOW DRY THE ATMOS GETS. DEWPOINTS TEMPS WERE MIXED DOWN A COUPLE             
DEGREES AS A VERY DRY AND DEEP SUBSIDENCE LAYER MOVES INTO THE                  
REGION. THIS BRINGS LOW RH LEVELS...BELOW 25 PERCENT...TO MOST OF               
THE CWFA BEGINNING AROUND 16Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH AROUND 21Z.                
FUEL MOISTURES ACROSS NE GA HAVE BEEN NOTED AT OR ABOVE 10 PERCENT              
WHICH ARE BASED OFF PRE/FROPA PRECIP...AND BASED ON THAT FACT A FIRE            
WEATHER WATCH WILL NOT BE ISSUED FOR NE GA. THIS WILL BE MENTIONED              
IN THE HWO HOWEVER. A PLEASANTLY WARM DAY IS ON TAP FRIDAY. DEEP                
LAYERED DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS WITH               
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC HIGH REMAINING FAIRLY STATIONARY. A DEVELOPING                
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL EJECT FEW/SCT CI OVER THE AREA DURING               
THE AFTERNOON...BUT TEMPS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM RISING TO AROUND 10            
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS SET UP. NO FIRE WX CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED           
FRI WITH INCREASING SFC DEWPOINTS...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED            
FOR POSSIBLE MIXING ISSUES AND HOW QUICKLY THE MIXED LAYER MOISTENS             
UP.                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                    
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM                     
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT                    
ACCORDING TO BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF.  WHAT LITTLE LIFT WILL BE                  
TOWARD GEORGIA AND POPS WILL BE LOW.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE            
NORTHEAST STATES SATURDAY KEEPING MOST OF OUR AREA DRY...EXCEPT                 
PERHAPS IN AND NEAR GEORGIA.                                                    
THE CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER TEXAS                  
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN MOVING NORTHEAST AND MOISTURE WILL                    
INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.  THE ECMWF HAS A                 
DEEPER LOW AND DRAWS MORE GULF MOISTURE WITH HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS                 
AHEAD OF THE LOW AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.  THE GFS HAS THE            
LOW OVER NORTHWEST GEORGIA AT 00Z MONDAY AND THE ECMWF HAS IT OVER              
KENTUCKY AT THAT TIME.                                                          
THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH               
THE FRONT CROSSING US FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY WITH DRIER AIR             
COMING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.  HOWEVER...WRAP               
AROUND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE NC MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY                   
TUESDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AS THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES BRINGING THE              
LOW THICKNESSES.  THE GFS DRIES OUT ALL MOISTURE FOR SNOW SHOWERS BY            
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...THE ECMWF BRINGS IN ANOTHER STRONG                
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTH WITH GOOD MOISTURE AGAIN FOR NC MOUNTAIN             
SNOW SHOWERS.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                     
COMPLICATED FORECAST THIS PERIOD WITH WEDGE FULLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS             
THE NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT AND ERN UPSTATE. VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE              
REST OF THE UPSTATE AND NC MTNS. EXPECT IFR OR LOWER TO CONTINUE TO             
DAYBREAK WHERE IT IS ALREADY OCCURRING. IFR SHOULD MOVE INTO THE                
WESTERN TAFS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN AND MOISTURE AND PRECIP                 
INCREASE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE COLD               
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOWER TO IMPROVE ACROSS             
THE NC SITES...AND WILL LIKELY NOT GO VFR UNTIL AFTERNOON. WINDS                
WILL BECOME WESTERLY AS THE FRONT MOVES THRU. WINDS WILL ALSO                   
INCREASE IN SPEED AND BECOME GUSTY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY               
EARLY EVENING.                                                                  
AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION                
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON                  
FRIDAY...WITH TEMPO MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. A DEEP            
LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE GULF COAST OVER THE            
WEEKEND...AND WIDESPREAD CIG AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS COULD FORM LATE              
IN THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE AREA.                                  
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
VERY DRY AIR THROUGH A DEEP LAYER WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CAROLINAS             
AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY.            
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX INTO THE MID TEENS ACROSS THE             
REGION WHILE TEMPERATURES RISE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL            
CREATE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES LESS THAN 25 PERCENT ACROSS THE                 
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LEVELS BELOW 20 PERCENT                    
PROBABLE ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA. RIDGING ALOFT AND BROAD A SFC                
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP SFC WINDS BELOW 10 MPH AND THE LATEST               
OBSERVED FUEL MOISTURES REMAIN AT 10 PERCENT OR GREATER ACROSS NE               
GA....SO NO FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED. WITH LATEST                      
PRECIPITATION ACROSS NE GA....LATER SHIFTS WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR            
NOT FUEL MOISTURES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH FOR A STATEMENT OR WARNING.               
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...DEO                                                                  
NEAR TERM...RWH                                                                 
SHORT TERM...SBK                                                                
LONG TERM...DEO                                                                 
AVIATION...RWH                                                                  
FIRE WEATHER...SBK                                                              
</pre> sc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA                                             
1000 PM PST TUE FEB 12 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE INLAND                    
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY WINDY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.                
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETURN FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE                      
WEEK...WITH ONLY MINOR STORM SYSTEMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE                       
WEEKEND.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
REST OF TONIGHT...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY EASTWARD                  
PROGRESS THROUGH THE INLAND NORTHWEST. THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY                 
SUGGESTS THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATIFORM FRONTAL BAND EXTENDS                   
ALONG A LINE FROM SANDPOINT TO THE TRI-CITIES...WITH SCATTERED                  
SHOWER ACTIVITY BEHIND IT. MOST OF THE SHOWERS PER IR SATELLITE                 
PIX WERE OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES EXTENDING FROM               
BONNERS FERRY AND INTO THE OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS. A MORE IMPRESSIVE                
BAND OF SHOWERS WAS CLUSTERED ALONG THE CASCADES EXTENDING NORTH                
FROM WENATCHEE TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. THIS BATCH OF SHOWERS                    
SEEMED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROF CENTERED JUST NORTH               
OF LAKE CHELAN AS WELL AS A FLEDGLING PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE.             
THE RUC SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE SHORTWAVE QUITE WELL AND TAKES IT ALONG        
THE CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH 09Z OR SO. THUS WE EXPECT THE CHANCE                
OF POST- FRONTAL SHOWERS TO GENERALLY PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN               
ZONES. 500 MB TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE HAVE BEEN                      
DROPPING RAPIDLY WITH -32C AT UIL REPORTED ON THE EVENING SOUNDING              
ROUNDUP AND A REPORT OF -34C AT 03Z FROM AN MDCRS REPORT JUST                   
NORTH OF STAMPEDE PASS. THIS REPORT FITS NICELY WITH LATEST RUC                 
FORECAST WHICH TAKES THIS COLD POOL ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES                   
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY SAGGING IT SOUTHWARD. THESE TEMPS                     
COMBINED WITH BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS SUPPORT VERY STEEP LAPSE                
RATES AND SUGGEST A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE ONLY THING               
HOLDING BACK THE FORMATION COULD BE THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT WATER               
OR SUPER-COOLED WATER DROPLETS NECESSARY FOR CHARGE SEPARATION AT               
CLOUD BASE LEVEL. DO NOT FEEL THE THREAT OF THUNDER IS GREAT                    
ENOUGH TO PLACE INTO THE GRIDS AT THE MOMENT.                                   
OTHER CONCERN THIS EVENING IS THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE                     
PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. LATEST ISALLOBARIC ANALYSIS                  
SUGGESTS THE FRONT HAS PASSED THE CASCADES AND WAS NOW MOVING INTO              
THE EASTERN COLUMBIA BASIN. WE HAVE RECEIVED A FEW SPOTTER REPORTS              
OF WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH NEAR THE WENATCHEE AREA...WHICH                      
CORRELATES WELL WITH THE BEST DARKENING OBSERVED ON THE LATEST                  
WATER VAPOR PIX. WIND GRIDS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. FX                  
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 06Z              
THU.  ONLY EXCEPTIONS COULD BRIEFLY OCCUR AT PUW THRU 08Z DUE TO THE            
PRESENCE OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED                         
PRECIPTIATION. SCT -SHRA/-SHSN COULD ALSO PRODUCE MTN OBSCURATIONS              
JUST SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER AND OVER THE ID PANHANDLE THROUGH             
18Z. FX                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
SPOKANE        31  41  23  38  26  41 /  50   0   0   0   0   0                 
COEUR D`ALENE  32  40  25  38  25  41 /  60  10  10   0   0  10                 
PULLMAN        32  38  25  39  26  43 /  80  20  10   0   0   0                 
LEWISTON       36  46  30  45  30  49 /  50  20  10   0   0   0                 
COLVILLE       28  43  17  41  23  41 /  70  10  10   0   0  10                 
SANDPOINT      31  39  22  39  26  40 /  90  20  10  10   0  10                 
KELLOGG        30  35  24  37  23  40 / 100  40  20  10  10  10                 
MOSES LAKE     30  45  22  42  24  45 /  10   0   0   0   0   0                 
WENATCHEE      32  47  27  44  29  46 /  20   0   0   0   0   0                 
OMAK           26  41  18  38  23  41 /  10   0   0   0   0  10                 
&&                                                                              
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ID...NONE.                                                                      
WA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> wa                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA                                             
1118 AM EST WED FEB 13 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
DUAL COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CENTERS IN NJ AND SE VIRGINIA LATE THIS MORNING       
WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT EVENTUALLY PASSING E           
OF CAPE COD THU MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION             
LATE THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY               
WILL SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE FRIDAY. NOTABLY COLD           
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW             
PRESSURE AREA WILL APPROACH SUNDAY EVENING BRINGING MORE SNOW ICE AND           
RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. COLD UNSTABLE AIR MOVES IN FOR TUESDAY            
AND WEDNESDAY.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
939-49 AM UPDATES FOR HEADLINES. RECORD BREAKING PCPN POSSIBLE TODAY            
AT BDL.                                                                         
SKYWARN IS COMING INTO THE OFFICE FOR MULTI REPORTS.                            
KEEPING THIS SIMPLE...WILL UPDATE THE GRIDS AS FAST AS CONFIDENT OF             
ADJUSTMENTS.                                                                    
ICING REDUCING SCOPE OF COVERAGE NOW BASICALLY A FEW HIGH TERRAIN               
LOCATIONS W AND CENTRAL MASS INTO THE MONADNOCKS. MAIN BRUNT OF THE             
SNOW AND ICE IS DONE. WILL CANCEL MOST OF WSW AT NOON EXCPT CHESHIRE            
AND FRNAKLIN COUNTY HIGH TERRAIN.                                               
OKX VWP HAS 55 KTS AT 250M 57KTS DOWN FM EARLIER. YET GUSTING ONLY 35KTS        
AT THE SFC.                                                                     
SEE HYDRO SECTIONS...FLS`S/FFW ETC AS POSTED.                                   
A WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR NANTUCKET AND CAPE COD TODAY. 40-45 KT            
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LOW.           
THE WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED ALONG THE SOUTHERN                    
MASSACHUSETTS COAST...BUT GIVEN THE EXPECTED TRACK ACROSS BUZZARDS              
BAY AND CAPE COD...DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT TO EXPAND ANY FURTHER WEST            
AT THIS TIME.                                                                   
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ALONG THE SOUTH             
COAST AND ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS BETWEEN 19Z AND 23Z TODAY. IF             
THIS OCCURS WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL SMW CRITERIA.                    
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...                       
RAIN MAY BRIEFLY END AS A PERIOD OF WET SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS            
FOR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. OTHERWISE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE              
WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...TRACKING FURTHER SOUTH THAN              
ITS PREDECESSOR. CONFINED POPS MAINLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE              
COD AND THE ISLANDS...NEAR THE REGION OF BEST MID LEVEL                         
FRONTOGENESIS.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                          
SOME UNCERTAINTY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND THE NAM            
INDICATE A TRAILING LOW OFF THE COAST WITH RAIN LINGERING IN THE                
COASTAL PLAIN WHILE THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND OTHER MODELS SHOW A WEAK               
WAVE FARTHER OFFSHORE. WE KEPT SOME LINGERING CHANCE OF RAIN THURSDAY           
MORNING FOR THE SOUTHEAST ZONES...AND ESPECIALLY FOR THE CAPE AND               
ISLANDS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN DURING THE AFTERNOON BRINGING             
DRY WEATHER. THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS WEST TO SOUTHWEST SO NO DRASTIC             
COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.                                             
THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH A CLIPPER LOW IN THE             
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY SWINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHEAST.                 
TIMING AMONGST THE MODELS IS SIMILAR WITH THE FRONT ON A BOSTON-NEW             
YORK AXIS IN THE EVENING. MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED BUT WITH FAVORABLE             
UPPER DYNAMICS...SO WE WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS. PTYPE WILL BE                  
RAIN SHOWERS LEADING THE FRONT...AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE COLDER AIR             
TRAILING THE FRONT.                                                             
STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL AID IN BRINGING STRONG              
WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH IN TURN WILL BRING MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE            
REGION. THIS COLDER AIR WILL ALSO BE SUPPORTED BY A CHANGE IN THE               
UPPER WINDS TO NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. 850 MB TEMPS WILL DROP FROM               
AROUND 0C ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO AROUND -16C SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SO             
MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT TEENS IN SOUTHERN           
NH AND NORTHWEST MASS.                                                          
TWO SYSTEMS COME AT US LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ONE FROM THE              
GREAT LAKES AND ONE FROM THE GULF COAST. THE GULF SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE            
THE CONTROLLING SYSTEM...SPREADING PRECIP INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY               
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WITH CLOUDS MOVING IN BY EVENING AND NO SOURCE            
OF COLD AIR IN PLACE TO OUR NORTH...WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DIP A             
LITTLE IN THE EVENING BUT THEN SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT. PTYPE MAY START           
AS SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR...BUT THE OVERALL           
TREND WILL BE TOWARD RAIN.                                                      
BEHIND THE STORM WILL BE ANOTHER BURST OF COLD ADVECTION WITH 850 MB            
TEMPERATURES AROUND -20C AND A LINGERING COLD POOL/UPPER TROF                   
COMBINATION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                     
TODAY...IFR/LIFR IN RAIN...OCCASIONALLY HEAVY...WITH ISOLATED THUNDER           
MAINLY SOUTH COAST AND CAPE COD. LLWS ACK/HYA AND POSSIBLY PVD WITH             
STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET. WIND GUSTS TO 40 KT POSSIBLE AT KACK.           
250M WINDS AT OKX 55 KTS...YET TRANSLATES TO ONLY G35KTS AT THE SFC...          
FUNCTION OF INVERSION AND RICHARDSON NUMBER.                                    
ICE FREE WIND SENSOR PBLMS FORCING TO ADD NIL AMD TO ORH. WE WILL               
AMD ORH AND ANY OTHER NIL AMDS AS TIME AND CONFIDENCE DICTATES.                 
TONIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS IN EVENING RAIN...MAINLY EASTERN AND                   
SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS. THEN MVFR/VFR CEILINGS.                                 
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...                                            
LINGERING IFR ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE              
VFR THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY.                                                  
MVFR OR IFR IN SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND             
NIGHT.                                                                          
COLD WINDS PICKING UP FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.             
WINDS DIMINISH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH VFR THROUGH SUNDAY MIDDAY.               
LOWERING CIGS DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MVFR/IFR IN              
SNOW AND RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
TODAY...HEAVY RAIN WILL LEAD TO A REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY AT TIMES.             
SOUTHERLY GALES FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON              
WITH INCREASING WINDS AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS CAPE COD. ISOLATED                
TSRA POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.                                 
TONIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS...MAINLY FOR                 
SOUTHERLY SWELL WITH EVENING WIND GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KT. SHIFTING                
WINDS TO NORTHWEST.                                                             
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...                                            
NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR GALE FORCE THURSDAY MORNING WITH DIMINISHING               
WIND AND SEAS LATER IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES              
OVERHEAD. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT                      
APPROACHES. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL                
INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.              
WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN SUBSIDE AGAIN DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.                 
AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.                 
ANOTHER STORM FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY           
WINDS AND SEAS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS APPROACHING GALES ON THE                 
OUTER WATERS.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
UPDATED 10 AM WED                                                               
PLS SEE ON GOING STMTS AND WARNINGS FOR LATEST INFO.                            
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS POSTED FROM NORTHERN CT AND RI INTO S CENTRAL AND           
EASTERN MA AND PART OF SW NH INTO THU MORNING.                                  
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WAS CENTERED OVER CT VALLEY REGION LATE THIS MORNING AND      
NAM/RUC HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON IT. BOTH MODELS SHIFT THIS AXIS INTO RI AND       
EASTERN MA THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE WE WILL ALSO HAVE SOME RUNOFF CONTRIBUTION    
FROM SNOW MELT DUE TO TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO 40S AND EVEN LOWER 50S. COLDER  
AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS INTERIOR WHICH WILL LIMIT SNOW MELT.  
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY TONIGHT.             
IN ADDITION TO SIGNIFICANT URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING...WE ARE ALSO       
CONCERNED ABOUT MINOR FLOODING ON SEVERAL SMALLER RIVERS IN PARTS OF RI         
AND EASTERN MA.                                                                 
BASED UPON COORDINATION WITH NERFC...WE ARE WATCHING THE FOLLOWING FORECAST     
POINTS WHICH MAY GO INTO MINOR FLOOD EITHER TONIGHT OR EARLY THU MORNING:       
ASSABET RIVER AT MAYNARD MA                                                     
SUDBURY RIVER AT SAXONVILLE MA                                                  
BLACKSTONE RIVER AT WOONSOCKET RI                                               
PAWTUXET RIVER AT CRANSTON RI                                                   
IN ADDITION...MANY OTHER SMALLER RIVERS IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN MA ARE EXPECTED  
TO CREST ABOVE THEIR ACTION STAGES BUT BELOW FLOOD STAGE...PRIMARILY IN LOWER   
MERRIMACK AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BASINS. PLEASE REFER TO THE DAILY RIVER AND  
LAKE SUMMARY /RVDBOX OR FGUS51 KBOX/ FOR SPECIFIC FORECASTS WHICH WILL BE       
UPDATED BY MIDDAY.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.CLIMATE...                                                                     
DAILY RECORD PRECIPITATION FOR FEBRUARY 13TH                                    
BOSTON 1.65 1966                                                                
PROVIDENCE 2.59 1966                                                            
HARTFORD 1.69 1966                                                              
WORCESTER 3.16 1900                                                             
FEBRUARY 12TH 2006 WE HAD RECORD SNOWFALL                                       
BDL 21.9 AND ALSO GREATEST EVER.                                                
BOS 17.5                                                                        
ORH 16.9                                                                        
PVD 9.4                                                                         
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.                       
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                     
     MAZ002>004-008>012-026.                                                    
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-009-                   
     011>021.                                                                   
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ022-024.                  
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NHZ011-             
     015.                                                                       
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NHZ012.                           
RI...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR RIZ001>007.                       
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR                   
     ANZ230>237-250.                                                            
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING             
     FOR ANZ254-255.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.                       
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                     
     MAZ002>004-008>012-026.                                                    
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-009-                   
     011>021.                                                                   
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ022>024.                  
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NHZ011-             
     015.                                                                       
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NHZ012.                           
RI...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR RIZ001>007.                       
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR                   
     ANZ230>237-250.                                                            
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ254-255.                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DRAG                                                             
NEAR TERM...DRAG                                                                
SHORT TERM...DRAG                                                               
LONG TERM...WTB                                                                 
AVIATION...DRAG                                                                 
MARINE...DRAG                                                                   
HYDROLOGY...                                                                    
CLIMATE...                                                                      
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA                                             
1008 AM EST WED FEB 13 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE UP THE COAST TODAY            
AND CROSS CAPE COD THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE            
REGION THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY             
WILL SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE FRIDAY. COLD HIGH              
PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST            
ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL APPROACH SUNDAY EVENING               
BRINGING MORE SNOW AND RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. COLD UNSTABLE              
AIR MOVES IN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.                                         
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
939 AM UPDATE FOR HEADLINES. RECORD BREAKING WATER EQUIVALENT PCPN              
POSSIBLE TODAY AT BDL.                                                          
LOTS OF WEATHER FACTORS TO CONSIDER TODAY. WARMER AIR                           
CONTINUED TO PENETRATE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS A WARM FRONT WAS                 
LIFTING NORTH THIS MORNING. RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE             
TO INDICATE A LARGE AREA OF MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET OVER                 
INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE SOUTH                 
COAST. PRECIPITATION WAS FALLING AT A MODERATE RATE OVER THE                    
INTERIOR...NEAR THE LOCATION OF BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE               
WARM FRONT.                                                                     
OVERALL GIVEN PRECIPITATION INTENSITY AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL             
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE INTERIOR...CONTINUED WITH WINTER STORM                
WARNINGS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND                   
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...MOSTLY FOR ICE. GLAZE ACCUMULATIONS WILL               
REACH 0.25 INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 0.50 INCH.                    
MOST OF THE FREEZING RAIN ACCRETION WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. MOST            
AREAS WILL CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SOME PATCHES            
OF FREEZING RAIN MAY CONTINUE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.                             
DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A WINTER STORM                
WARNING ACROSS HARTFORD CONNECTICUT THROUGH 10 AM GIVEN PLUME OF                
STEADY FREEZING RAIN AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING.                   
A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FOR MUCH                 
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN SOME                     
DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST QPF. PRECIPITABLE              
WATER VALUES WILL BECOME ANOMALOUSLY HIGH (NEARLY TROPICAL) THIS                
AFTERNOON AS AN 80-90KT POTENT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET ARRIVES FROM             
THE BAHAMAS. EXPECT HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND A GENERAL ONE TO 2.5 INCHES             
OF RAINFALL TODAY. THIS WILL CAUSE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING             
AND BRING SOME STREAMS CLOSE TO BANKFUL.                                        
A WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR NANTUCKET AND CAPE COD TODAY. 40-45 KT            
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LOW.           
THE WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED ALONG THE SOUTHERN                    
MASSACHUSETTS COAST...BUT GIVEN THE EXPECTED TRACK ACROSS BUZZARDS              
BAY AND CAPE COD...DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT TO EXPAND ANY FURTHER WEST            
AT THIS TIME.                                                                   
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ALONG THE SOUTH             
COAST AND ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS BETWEEN 19Z AND 23Z TODAY. IF             
THIS OCCURS WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL SMW CRITERIA.                    
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...                       
UPDATING AT 939 AM FOR HEADLINES TEMPS AND DEW POINTS.                          
RAIN MAY BRIEFLY END AS A PERIOD OF WET SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS            
FOR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. OTHERWISE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE              
WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...TRACKING FURTHER SOUTH THAN              
ITS PREDECESSOR. CONFINED POPS MAINLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE COD          
AND THE ISLANDS...NEAR THE REGION OF BEST MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS.              
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                          
SOME UNCERTAINTY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND THE NAM            
INDICATE A TRAILING LOW OFF THE COAST WITH RAIN LINGERING IN THE                
COASTAL PLAIN WHILE THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND OTHER MODELS SHOW A WEAK               
WAVE FARTHER OFFSHORE. WE KEPT SOME LINGERING CHANCE OF RAIN THURSDAY           
MORNING FOR THE SOUTHEAST ZONES...AND ESPECIALLY FOR THE CAPE AND               
ISLANDS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN DURING THE AFTERNOON BRINGING             
DRY WEATHER. THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS WEST TO SOUTHWEST SO NO DRASTIC             
COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.                                             
THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH A CLIPPER LOW IN THE             
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY SWINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHEAST.                 
TIMING AMONGST THE MODELS IS SIMILAR WITH THE FRONT ON A BOSTON-NEW             
YORK AXIS IN THE EVENING. MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED BUT WITH FAVORABLE             
UPPER DYNAMICS...SO WE WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS. PTYPE WILL BE                  
RAIN SHOWERS LEADING THE FRONT...AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE COLDER AIR             
TRAILING THE FRONT.                                                             
STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL AID IN BRINGING STRONG              
WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH IN TURN WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO THE                 
REGION. THIS COLDER AIR WILL ALSO BE SUPPORTED BY A CHANGE IN THE               
UPPER WINDS TO NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. 850 MB TEMPS WILL DROP FROM               
AROUND 0C ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO AROUND -16C SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SO             
MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT TEENS IN SOUTHERN           
NH AND NORTHWEST MASS.                                                          
TWO SYSTEMS COME AT US LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ONE FROM THE              
GREAT LAKES AND ONE FROM THE GULF COAST. THE GULF SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE            
THE CONTROLLING SYSTEM...SPREADING PRECIP INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY               
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WITH CLOUDS MOVING IN BY EVENING AND NO SOURCE            
OF COLD AIR IN PLACE TO OUR NORTH...WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DIP A             
LITTLE IN THE EVENING BUT THEN SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT. PTYPE MAY START           
AS SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR...BUT THE OVERALL           
TREND WILL BE TOWARD RAIN.                                                      
BEHIND THE STORM WILL BE ANOTHER BURST OF COLD ADVECTION WITH 850 MB            
TEMPERATURES AROUND -20C AND A LINGERING COLD POOL/UPPER TROF                   
COMBINATION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                     
TODAY...IFR/LIFR IN RAIN...OCCASIONALLY HEAVY...WITH ISOLATED THUNDER           
MAINLY SOUTH COAST AND CAPE COD. LLWS ACK/HYA AND POSSIBLY PVD WITH             
STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET. WIND GUSTS TO 40 KT POSSIBLE AT KACK.           
TONIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS IN EVENING RAIN...MAINLY EASTERN AND                   
SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS. THEN MVFR/VFR CEILINGS.                                 
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...                                            
LINGERING IFR ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE              
VFR THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY.                                                  
MVFR OR IFR IN SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND             
NIGHT.                                                                          
COLD WINDS PICKING UP FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.             
WINDS DIMINISH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH VFR THROUGH SUNDAY MIDDAY.               
LOWERING CIGS DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MVFR/IFR IN              
SNOW AND RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
TODAY...HEAVY RAIN WILL LEAD TO A REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY AT TIMES.             
SOUTHERLY GALES FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON              
WITH INCREASING WINDS AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS CAPE COD. ISOLATED                
TSRA POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.                                 
TONIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS...MAINLY FOR                 
SOUTHERLY SWELL WITH EVENING WIND GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KT. SHIFTING                
WINDS TO NORTHWEST.                                                             
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...                                            
NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR GALE FORCE THURSDAY MORINNG WITH DIMINISHING               
WIND AND SEAS LATER IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES              
OVERHEAD. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT                      
APPROACHES. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL                
INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.              
WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN SUBSIDE AGAIN DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.                 
AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.                 
ANOTHER STORM FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY           
WINDS AND SEAS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS APPROACHING GALES ON THE                 
OUTER WATERS.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
UPDATED 10 AM WED                                                               
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS POSTED FROM NORTHERN CT AND RI INTO S CENTRAL AND           
EASTERN MA AND PART OF SW NH INTO THU MORNING.                                  
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WAS CENTERED OVER CT VALLEY REGION LATE THIS MORNING AND      
NAM/RUC HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON IT. BOTH MODELS SHIFT THIS AXIS INTO RI AND       
EASTERN MA THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE WE WILL ALSO HAVE SOME RUNOFF CONTRIBUTION    
FROM SNOW MELT DUE TO TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO 40S AND EVEN LOWER 50S. COLDER  
AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS INTERIOR WHICH WILL LIMIT SNOW MELT.  
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY TONIGHT.             
IN ADDITION TO SIGNIFICANT URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING...WE ARE ALSO       
CONCERNED ABOUT MINOR FLOODING ON SEVERAL SMALLER RIVERS IN PARTS OF RI         
AND EASTERN MA.                                                                 
BASED UPON COORDINATION WITH NERFC...WE ARE WATCHING THE FOLLOWING FORECAST     
POINTS WHICH MAY GO INTO MINOR FLOOD EITHER TONIGHT OR EARLY THU MORNING:       
ASSABET RIVER AT MAYNARD MA                                                     
SUDBURY RIVER AT SAXONVILLE MA                                                  
BLACKSTONE RIVER AT WOONSOCKET RI                                               
PAWTUXET RIVER AT CRANSTON RI                                                   
IN ADDITION...MANY OTHER SMALLER RIVERS IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN MA ARE EXPECTED  
TO CREST ABOVE THEIR ACTION STAGES BUT BELOW FLOOD STAGE...PRIMARILY IN LOWER   
MERRIMACK AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BASINS. PLEASE REFER TO THE DAILY RIVER AND  
LAKE SUMMARY /RVDBOX OR FGUS51 KBOX/ FOR SPECIFIC FORECASTS WHICH WILL BE       
UPDATED BY MIDDAY.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.CLIMATE...                                                                     
DAILY RECORD PRECIPITATION FOR FEBRUARY 13TH                                    
BOSTON 1.65 1966                                                                
PROVIDENCE 2.59 1966                                                            
HARTFORD 1.69 1966                                                              
WORCESTER 3.16 1900                                                             
FEBRUARY 12TH 2006 WE HAD RECORD SNOWFALL                                       
BDL 21.9 AND ALSO GREATEST EVER.                                                
BOS 17.5                                                                        
ORH 16.9                                                                        
PVD 9.4                                                                         
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.                       
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                     
     MAZ002>004-008>012-026.                                                    
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-009-                   
     011>021.                                                                   
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ022-024.                  
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NHZ011-             
     015.                                                                       
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NHZ012.                           
RI...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR RIZ001>007.                       
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR                   
     ANZ230>237-250.                                                            
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING             
     FOR ANZ254-255.                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DRAG                                                             
NEAR TERM...DRAG                                                                
SHORT TERM...DRAG                                                               
LONG TERM...WTB                                                                 
AVIATION...DRAG                                                                 
MARINE...DRAG                                                                   
HYDROLOGY...JWD                                                                 
CLIMATE...DRAG                                                                  
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY                                               
853 AM EST WED FEB 13 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WARM FRONT ACROSS NYC AND SOUTHERN CONN...WILL WORK ITS                       
WAY NORTHWEST THIS MORNING. IT WILL NOT MAKE IT COMPLETELY THROUGH              
THE REGION...AS LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES INTO A SINGLE COASTAL LOW             
JUST OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL               
THEN LIFT NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES BY THURSDAY              
MORNING. A WEAK SECONDARY WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE VIRGINIA CAPES                  
THIS EVENING...AND TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. WEAK                  
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A              
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY MORNING...THEN                  
CROSSES THE TRI-STATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE               
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THEN                   
MOVES OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE                
FROM THE GULF COAST STATES SUNDAY MORNING...TO THE VICINITY OF                  
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY MORNING...AND INT THE CANADIAN                   
MARITIME PROVINCES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN                
FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
HAVE EXTENDED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWEST CONN AND                    
CENTRAL LOWER HUDSON VALLEY COUNTIES UNTIL 11 AM. WARM FRONT                    
CONTINUES TO WORK NORTH ACROSS SE CT THIS MORNING. WITH STRONG WAA              
ALOFT AND WARM RAIN PROCESSES...EXPECT TEMPS ACROSS THE WARNING                 
ADVISORY AREAS TO SLOWLY NUDGE ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE LATE                  
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. LATEST RUC SUGGESTS THAT LOWER HUDSON                  
VALLEY...NE NJ...AND NW CT ZONES NEVER GET WARM FRONT THROUGH                   
(EXCEPT FOR MAYBE HUDSON COUNTY). WILL END UP WITH VERY TIGHT                   
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA AS A RESULT.                                
OTHERWISE...ALL PRECIPITATION IS NOW IN THE FORM OF EITHER RAIN (LONG           
ISLAND/COASTAL CT AND METRO NYC) OR FREEZING RAIN ELSEWHERE...AS                
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ONLY SUPPORT LIQUID PRECIPITATION FALLING INTO               
THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER. ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER                 
HUDSON VALLEY AND WESTERN PASSAIC COUNTY...SUFFICIENT COLD AIR IS               
WEDGE IN PLACE AGAINST LOCALLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THAT ADDITIONAL              
SIGNIFICANT ICING (AN ADDITIONAL HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN                   
INCH) IS LIKELY BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING TOWARDS                 
THE END OF RUSH HOUR. AS A RESULT THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS                  
BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE PUTNAM COUNTY. WAS A BORDER LINE CASE AS               
TO WHETHER TO INCLUDE NORTHERN FAIRFIELD COUNTY OR NOT...IT                     
APPEARS HOWEVER THAT THE TRAJECTORY OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION               
THIS MORNING WILL ONLY CLIP THE NORTHERN TIP OF THE COUNTY...SO                 
WILL END UP WITH A WIDE RANGE OF ICE COVERAGE...RANGING FROM A                  
TENTH OF AN INCH JUST N OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR TO UPWARDS OF 3/4 OF               
AN INCH IN THE FAR NORTHERN TIP...SINCE LESS THAN HALF OF THE                   
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD COUNTY ZONE SHOULD RECEIVE AT LEAST .5 INCHES                
OF ICE (THE REQUIREMENT FOR A WARNING)...HAVE LEFT AS AN ADVISORY.              
FOR ADVISORY AREA...HAVE EXTENDED TO 12Z. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED                
IF SOME PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA ENDS UP GETTING EXTENDED AN               
HOUR OR SO...AS NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT TEMPERATURES WARM UP AS                
FAST AS WHAT IS FORECASTED.                                                     
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING BASED ON A BLEND OF RUC 2M TEMPERATURES               
(WHICH HAVE BEEN SUPERIOR SO FAR IN THESE DAMMING SITUATIONS) AND               
LAV NUMBERS (WHICH ALSO HAVE FAIRED FAIRLY WELL IN THESE                        
SCENARIOS). (MORE ON TEMPERATURES LATER)                                        
NEXT ISSUE IS FLOODING POTENTIAL. HAVE EXPANDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH               
TO INCLUDE ORANGE AND WESTERN PASSAIC COUNTIES. GFS HAD RIGHT IDEA              
OF HEAVIER SLUG OF PRECIPITATION GOING OVER THOSE LOCATIONS...AND               
ON INTO INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CLIPPING               
FAR NW CT ZONES...AS EVIDENCE BY REGIONAL RADAR...SO WITH                       
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ON TOP OF A HALF AN INCH TO                  
INCH OF ICE (HELPING TO MAXIMIZE RUNOFF)...HAVE A FLOOD THREAT                  
THERE AS WELL. WHILE RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY EVERYWHERE BY THIS                  
AFTERNOON...HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN A BAND FROM AROUND              
NYC NE INTO NE CT IN RESPONSE TO BEING IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF              
160 KT JET...VERY STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND STRONG LOW LEVEL                 
FRONTOGENIC FORCING (POSSIBLY CREATING BANDING TO LOCALLY ENHANCE               
PRECIPITATION). REFER TO HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR DETAILS ON RAINFALL              
AMOUNTS.                                                                        
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...ALL DEPENDANT ON HOW FAR WARM FRONT MAKES                 
IT. WARM FRONT CURRENTLY BETWEEN BUOYS (44025 AND 44017) AND LONG               
ISLAND. SHOULD MAKE IT THROUGH AT LEAST EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SE              
CT...AND POSSIBLY INTO NYC. NOT REAL CONFIDENT IN IT MAKING IT                  
THROUGH MUCH ELSE...ESPECIALLY WITH LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATING TO               
THE S BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGHS BASED ON BLEND OF MAV/FWC/MET                   
BLEND...WHICH WAS USED TO TAMPER WHAT LOOKED TO BE SLIGHTLY TO                  
MUCH WARMING OVER SE AREAS FROM RUC 2M TEMPS AND LAV NUMBERS.                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...                         
GFS IS                                                                          
OUTLIER WITH ITS DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG LOW TRACKING JUST TO OUR               
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...LEANED TOWARDS WEAKER MORE PROGRESSIVE                      
SOLUTION SUPPORTED BY CMC REGIONAL/NAM/SREF/ECMWF/UKMET. MAIN                   
RESULT WAS TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA                    
TONIGHT...IF CMC REGIONAL IS RIGHT COULD END UP DRY TONIGHT. BEST               
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS OVER SE AREAS...WITH ONLY SLIGHT                    
CHANCE NW. DID KEEP UP FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVERNIGHT...DUE TO                     
RESIDUAL EFFECTS AND TO TRY TO AVOID ANY ISSUES IN CASE GFS CEASES              
TO BE AN OUTLIER (AM SLIGHTLY NERVOUS BECAUSE GFS HAS BEEN                      
FORECASTING THIS IN ALL RUNS SINCE 00Z LAST NIGHT).                             
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN              
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AS WELL.                                
DIFFERENCE IN NAM AND GFS IN TIMING OF NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD              
CROSS THE REGION BEGINNING LATE ON FRIDAY. WITH SUPPORT FROM SREF               
AND UKMET LEANED TOWARDS FASTER GFS TIMING AND A WEAKER FRONT AS                
WELL. ONE CONSEQUENCE OF THE WEAKER FRONT...IS THAT THE FORCING IS              
WEAKER...SO HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS ON FRIDAY AS A RESULT. SHOULD              
BE A DECENT WARM PUSH AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY                    
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                        
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT               
FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE BOUNDARY SO WARM INITIAL HAVE A CHANCE OF                
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS N CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS S IN THE EVENING...THEN              
WITH SOME EVIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION                
HAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AT MOST LOCATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT                  
WITH THE COLDER AIR WORKING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. PRECIPITATION                  
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND THE                
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM              
IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.               
TRACK REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT AT THIS POINT WE ARE EXPECTING A MIX              
OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                     
IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE DROPPING TO LIFR TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND WILL               
REMAIN LIFR (POSSIBLY VLIFR) THROUGH ABOUT 22Z THIS EVENING. FZRA               
ACROSS KNYC TO KISP TERMINALS WILL BE CHANGING TO PLAIN RAIN OVER               
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...WHILE FZRA FURTHER INLAND WILL HOLD OFF                   
UNTIL ABOUT 08-09Z. SN AT KSWF WILL BE MIXING WITH FZRA AND PL                  
THROUGH 08Z...THEN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FZRA WILL BE EXPECTED                  
THROUGH THIS MORNING. RAIN MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES...RESULTING                
IN THE LOWERED CONDITIONS.                                                      
SE WINDS AT 5-10 KT WILL BE INCREASING TO 10-15 KT (15-20 KT AT                 
KNYC TERMINALS) TONIGHT.                                                        
60+ 2K FT LLJ KT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF TH REGION               
THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN LLWS ISSUES. WILL EXPECT 50-60 KT                   
WINDS AT 2K FT STARTING AT MANY TERMINALS TOWARDS DAYBREAK...                   
INCREASING TO 60-70 KT WINDS AT 2K FT BETWEEN 10-12Z. LLWS ISSUE                
DIMINISH AS LOW PRES DEPARTS. CIGS/VSBYS IMPROVE TO MVFR IN THE                 
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT WILL KEEP THE MENTION FOR SOME               
SHOWERS AS UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION.                              
COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 22-02Z. WINDS TURN NW              
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL BE INCREASING TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO               
20 KT DEVELOPING IN THE EVENING. KEPT THE MENTION OF MVFR VSBY DUE              
TO BR FOR THE EVENING...FIGURING THE COMBINATION OF CAA OVER A                  
SATURATED GROUND WOULD PRODUCE BR. WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO                
KEEP BR FROM FORMING AND WOULD KEEP IT FROM LASTING TOO MUCH PAST               
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.                                                      
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...                                      
VFR CIGS/VSBYS THEN IN PLACE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRI. ANOTHER                  
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT. HIGH                  
PRES RETURNS FOR SUN.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
SCA CONDITIONS WERE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS ALL WATERS THIS MORNING               
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT AND OCEAN BUOYS 44025 AND 44017 REPORTING SEAS              
OF 7 AND 5 FT...RESPECTIVELY. SEAS OF 3 FT WERE BEING REPORTED                  
ACROSS LONG ISLAND SOUND.                                                       
SFC WARM FRONT OVER CENTRAL NJ AT 09Z WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS               
BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND FROM THE SE TO SW DURING            
THIS TIME. FOR A BRIEF TIME...WINDS WILL DROP BELOW SCA THIS                    
AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT                 
MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS...FROM 18Z TO 22Z.                                      
COLD ADVECTION THIS EVENING AND A STRENGTHENING NW FLOW WILL BRING              
WINDS BACK UP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH A MARGINAL GALE ON               
THE OCEAN AND SCA ELSEWHERE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL                
AROUND 18Z THU. THE 00Z GFS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SECOND WAVE                  
DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING...THEN TAKING A            
TRACK SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE SE OF MONTAUK POINT BY 12Z THU.              
THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS LOW IS AN OUTLIER AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODEL                
SUITE AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE. THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF SEEING GALE              
FORCE WINDS ON THE OCEAN WATERS LOOKS TO BE FROM 06Z TO 18Z THU.                
HI PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS THU AFT AND NIGHT...THEN EAST OF               
THE WATERS BY 12Z FRI. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA              
FRI EVE WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION TO FOLLOW INTO SAT MORNING WITH              
SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY TO RETURN ON ALL WATERS. HI PRES BUILDS BACK              
IN SAT AFT AND NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW ON SUN.            
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
EVEN WITH MINIMAL QPF NO EXPECTED TONIGHT...STILL HAVE THE                      
POTENTIAL FOR 1.5 (NW) TO 2.5 INCHES (BAND FROM NEAR NYC TO NE CT)              
OF RAINFALL TODAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS COMBINED WITH               
SNOW MELT OR FALLING ON TOP OF ICE ENCRUSTED SNOW...PROMOTING MORE              
RUNOFF THAN USUAL...PRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING                    
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. FLASHY RIVERS COULD STILL BE IN FLOOD THIS               
EVENING...PLUS RESIDUAL FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS WARRANT CONTINUING              
FLOOD WATCH INTO TONIGHT...EVEN THOUGH PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IS               
GREATLY REDUCED. IF BANDING DOES DEVELOP...COULD END UP WITH VERY               
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...OF AN INCH OR MORE AN HOUR...THIS WILL ADD               
TO ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.                                        
AFTER THIS...NEXT POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS WITH COASTAL              
STORM SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                               
&&                                                                              
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR CTZ005>012.                       
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR                   
     CTZ005>007.                                                                
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NYZ067>081.                       
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ067-068.                  
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR                   
     NYZ069-070.                                                                
NJ...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NJZ002>006-011.                   
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NJZ002.                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-           
     338-340-345.                                                               
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ350-             
     353-355.                                                                   
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR               
     ANZ350-353-355.                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...                                                                     
NEAR TERM...                                                                    
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
LONG TERM...                                                                    
AVIATION...                                                                     
MARINE...                                                                       
HYDROLOGY...                                                                    
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
949 AM EST WED FEB 13 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CURRENTLY-TODAY...WATER VAPOR/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS INITIAL UPPER                  
IMPULSE WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND JET STREAK OVER THE CENTRAL              
GULF STARTING TO ROUND THE BASE OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THE RUC            
IS STILL SHOWING SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF BUT            
RADAR IS JUST SHOWING AN AREA OF SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT               
PUSHING THROUGH THE BIG BEND AREA.                                              
PRE FRONTAL DEEP CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED INTO SOUTH FLORIDA.  HEATING            
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE INHIBITED BY LOW CLOUDS AND EXTENSIVE                
DEBRIS CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS FROM THE GULF. WINDS HAVE VEERED SO              
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT HAS WEAKENED.  THIS             
SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  SOUTHERN                
AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MOST FAVORED AS MOISTURE/HEATING WILL              
BE THE GREATEST THERE.                                                          
MENTION OF A FEW STRONG STORMS IN THE SOUTH STILL LOOKS WARRANTED               
DUE TO RATHER STRONG WIND PROFILE.  NORTHERN SECTIONS SHOULD MAINLY             
SEE SHOWERS THOUGH.  ANY ZONE UPDATE WOULD BE MAINLY TO CLEAN UP                
WORDING AND WILL FOLLOW CLOUD/RADAR TRENDS THROUGH LATE MORNING.                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...AREAS OF STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BUT EXPECT                 
CONSIDERABLE MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO AFFECT THE AREA.  THIS WILL LIMIT               
HEATING SO THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE               
FRONT SHOULD BE SCATTERED...WITH MAIN STORM CHANCES BEING IN THE                
SOUTH WHERE THE MOST HEATING SHOULD OCCUR.  EXPECT SOME WIND GUSTS              
TO AROUND 20 KNOTS DURING PERIODS OF HEATING/MIXING. FRONT SHOULD               
REACH THE CENTRAL PENINSULA AROUND 18Z AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE AROUND               
00Z BUT CLEARING SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY EVENING.                           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...STRONG PRE FRONTAL SOUTHWEST WINDS NECESSITATE ADVISORIES             
TODAY THEN THE WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND SHOULD            
DECREASE LATE TONIGHT.  WINDS WILL BE NORTH ON THU...THOUGH AT 10 TO            
15 KNOTS AND DECREASING.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER (PREV DISCUSSION)...A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS EXPECTED TO              
FILTER IN LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL             
CREATE AN EXPECTED LOW RH DURATION OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS ON                    
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS POSTED FOR INTERIOR                 
ZONES FOR THURSDAY.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR INLAND VOLUSIA-                  
     NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN                  
     LAKE.                                                                      
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL              
     WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE                   
     OUT 20 NM.                                                                 
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS            
     FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20                 
     NM.                                                                        
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL                  
     WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-                    
     WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO             
     60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20             
     TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO               
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...LASCODY                                                   
LONG TERM....BRAGAW                                                             
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
440 AM MST WED FEB 13 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD BEFORE STRONG            
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AFTER 06Z. MAY BE SOME POTENTIAL              
FOR DZ AND VISBY REDUCTIONS AS FRONT PASSES...BUT LOOKS LIKE MOST               
LIKELY SCENARIO IS DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AT KGLD.            
OTHERWISE KGLD VWP CONTINUES TO SUGGEST LLWS AT KGLD WITH 35-40KTS              
JUST OF THE SURFACE AND THINK LLWS WILL BE A PROBLEM UNTIL LOWER                
ATMOSPHERE MIXES OUT AND WINDS INCREASE.                                        
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...00Z H5 ANALYSIS INDICATING VERY LARGE HEIGHT FALLS                
ACROSS THE PAC NW WHILE WATER VAPOR/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING ROBUST MID/UPPER       
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PAC NW/NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION EARLY              
THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD               
OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH PRESSURE FALLS OVER NORTHEAST                 
COLORADO LATE IN THE PERIOD. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT                           
TIGHTENS...SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 MPH ACROSS THE            
AREA TODAY. A SOUTHWEST COMPONENT WEIGHTED ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES             
MAY LEAD TO A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING 60 DEGREES.                                
ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN              
PLAINS ON THURSDAY...HOWEVER THE H85 THERMAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN                 
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR              
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. LITTLE IF ANY INSOLATION IS EXPECTED WITH STRONG         
LOW LEVEL CAA IN POST-FRONTAL REGIME. A PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL SNOW             
STILL APPEARS ON TRACK WEIGHTED ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES AFTER                  
09-11Z AS H7 BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND TRANSIENT               
AREA OF MID LVL FRONTOGENESIS IS JUXTAPOSED WITH STRONGER LARGE                 
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT EVIDENT IN THE H5-H3 DIV Q FIELDS.                     
CROSS-SECTIONS OF GEO MOMENTUM/EQUIV POT TEMP TAKEN NORMAL TO H85-H3            
THICKNESS SUGGEST THE BEST RESPONSE TO THE FORCING WILL BE ACROSS               
EASTERN COLORADO GENERALLY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL KEEP              
THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS (1-2 INCHES) WEIGHTED OVER THE THE FAR                
WESTERN ZONES.                                                                  
A FEW FLURRIES MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON THURSDAY BEFORE             
SUBSIDENCE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH A COLD NIGHT EXPECTED. HIGHS             
ON FRIDAY WILL BE CHALLENGING AS THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT MAY BISECT               
THE AREA LEADING TO LARGE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES. WILL GENERALLY               
FOLLOW THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 40                  
NORTHWEST TO AROUND 30 EAST.                                                    
DAYS 4 THROUGH 7...NO CHANGES.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JRM/MCGUIRE                                                                     
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA                                        
448 AM CST WED FEB 13 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
AFTER THE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT YESTERDAY...MUCH COOLER               
AND DRIER HAS FILTERED INTO THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S               
AND 40S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S AND 30S. DESPITE THE DRIER AIR...LOW           
CLOUDS HAVE PERSISTED ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA. LATEST              
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL TIME HEIGHT TRENDS INDICATE THIS CLOUD              
COVER SHOULD THIN AND DISSIPATE BY THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL CALL                
FOR SUNNY SKIES IN MOST AREAS TODAY AND HIGHS IN THE 50S. PLEASANT              
WEATHER WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND EXPECTED TOMORROW BEFORE                    
CHANGES BEGIN.                                                                  
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
MODEL CONSENSUS HAS IMPROVED SOMEWHAT FOR THE WEEKEND FORECAST                  
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE                    
DETAILS. GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A STRONG H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER               
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN JETSTREAM IN THE                
SOUTHWEST CONUS BY FRIDAY...WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING ONLY SLOWLY                  
EASTWARD INTO TEXAS THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE EJECTING RAPIDLY                    
EASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION ON SUNDAY AS AN INTENSE 90KT+ JET DIVES              
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS PATTERN WILL CREATE                   
FAIRLY STRONG WIND FIELDS AND DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR NECK              
OF THE WOODS FOR THE FRIDAY TO SUNDAY TIMEFRAME.                                
AT THE SURFACE...A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS               
THE PLAINS STATES TOWARDS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA BY FRIDAY               
EVENING. AT THAT POINT...MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH GFS AND               
NAM INDICATING FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS                 
THE AREA INTO THE GULF BY SATURDAY...BUT ECMWF SHOWING FRONT                    
STALLING JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WHICH KEEPS US IN THE                
WARM SECTOR THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS OF COURSE WILL HAVE A POSSIBLE                 
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON TEMPS DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION PANS              
OUT. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS FOR NOW...WITH COOLER TEMPS IN                 
THE CARDS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AS FOR PRECIP...BOTH MODEL                   
SOLUTIONS SUGGEST EXPECTED WAA INTERACTING WITH LIFT AND FORCING                
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SPAWN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND                
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE FRIDAY TO SUNDAY PERIOD. HAVE KEPT                
LIKELY POPS GOING FOR THE WEEKEND.                                              
HPC GUIDANCE INDICATES WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS OVER              
THE WEEKEND...AND WITH RECENT RAINS THIS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED                  
FLOODING OR POSSIBLE RISES TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE ON SOME AREA                     
RIVERS. IN ADDITION...MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE A FEW STRONG STORMS              
MAY BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH THE INITIAL COLD FRONTAL PUSH...AND              
ON SUNDAY AS THE CUTOFF LOW EJECTS EASTWARD. SHOULD ECMWF SOLUTION              
PAN OUT...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY              
AS WELL.                                                                        
AFTER SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD ON SUNDAY...DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR TO                
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS ON TAP FOR THE FIRST PART OF              
NEXT WEEK.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MVFR CEILINGS AT KAEX...KLFT...AND KARA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL                 
GIVE WAY TO SKC BY MID MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WITH NORTH WINDS                 
EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THE REST OF THE DAY.                                  
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
LEANED TOWARDS RUC GUIDANCE ON WINDS FOR TODAY AND WILL HAVE SMALL              
CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUE FOR NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING               
AND OUTER WATERS INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE WINDS                 
FALL BELOW CRITERIA BY THIS EVENING. A GENERALLY CALM DAY IS                    
ANTICIPATED TOMORROW BEFORE A ROUGH PERIOD FOR MARINE WEATHER                   
BEGINS ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND                 
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AND INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS.                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
KLCH  58  39  67  56 /   0   0  10  20                                          
KBPT  61  41  68  57 /   0   0  10  20                                          
KAEX  53  33  67  53 /   0   0  10  20                                          
KLFT  53  37  67  55 /   0   0  10  20                                          
&&                                                                              
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LA...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING                
     ZONES: WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING                
     FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO                 
     CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...AND WATERS FROM                
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING                 
     FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.                                                       
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING                
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA                
     OUT 20 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER                
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT 20 NM.                                        
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING                
     ZONES: AND COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND,                 
     TX OUT 20 NM.                                                              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHAMBURGER                                                                      
</pre> la                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                
1042 AM EST WED FEB 13 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA              
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.         
THE FRONT AND THE ASSOCIATED STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST                 
THROUGH THE REGION BY MID OR LAT AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL                  
BUILD FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA LATE TONIGHT              
THROUGH FRIDAY.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
AS OF 1030 AM TODAY...                                                          
MSAS SHOWS THE TENACIOUS WEDGE FROM LAST NIGHT SLOWLY STARTING TO               
GIVE WAY AS NOTED BY PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE WEDGE AREA AND                   
SLIGHT BUMP IN TEMPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE TRIANGLE.                   
HOWEVER WINDOW BETWEEN DEPARTING COLD POOL AND UPSTREAM COLD FRONT              
WONT LAST LONG AS WILL LIKELY TAKE THE FRONT TO FINALLY SCOUR OUT ALL           
THE LEFTOVER COLD AIR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE TROF AXIS STILL TO               
THE WEST...EXPECT BANDS OF -RA/SHRA TO PERSIST ACROSS THE                       
WEST/NORTH INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE DRY SLOT WINS OUT AND THE            
FRONT TURNS THE FLOW MORE WESTERLY. THUS THINKING OF KEEPING HIGH               
POPS GOING FROM THE TRIAD EAST WHILE CUTTING BACK A BIT OVER THE                
SW. EVENTUALLY EXPECT WILL SEE THE DRY SLOT OVER THE EASTERN ZONES              
IN THE WAKE OF THE COASTAL WAVE FILL BACK IN WITH A BAND OF                     
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA AS THE FRONT NEARS LATER ON. FORECAST INSTABILITY               
SUGGESTS THIS COVERAGE MAY REDEVELOP ACROSS THE SANDHILLS/CENTRAL               
COASTAL PLAIN BEFORE SLIDING TO THE COAST. OTRW CLOUDS TO HOLD                  
WITH SOME BREAKS NW TIER AS DRIER W/NW TRAJECTORY DEVELOPS LATE                 
WHICH SHOULD LIMIT SNOW THREAT UNLESS UPPER SYSTEMS SLOWS SOME.                 
HIGH TEMPS VERY TRICKY GIVEN SLOWER WEDGE EXODUS AND LATER COLD                 
ADVECTION ALOFT WEST WHILE WARMING CONTINUES SE OF THE WEDGE A BIT              
LONGER. BASED ON CURRENT TEMPS AND LATEST LAV...LOWERED HIGHS A                 
CAT OR SO TRIANGLE NORTH AND WEST WHILE GOING CLOSE TO 70 SE.                   
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
AS OF 845 AM TODAY...                                                           
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE H85 WARM FRONT AND MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE                
(SEEN LIFTING UP THE NC COAST AT 830 AM...) THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND               
THREAT OF CONVECTION HAD SHIFTED NE OF CENTRAL NC. THE THREAT OF                
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS HAD ALSO SHIFTED TO THE OUTER BANKS AS OF 845            
AM. THERE WAS A DISTINCT DRY SLOT OVER CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING...               
WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT OF NC.             
THIS INCREASE IN SHOWERS TO OUR WEST SHOULD SPREAD EAST ACROSS                  
CENTRAL NC MID TO LATE MORNING... AND CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON AS              
THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND              
OVER THE PIEDMONT. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING             
THROUGH CENTRAL NC DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... IT              
APPEARS THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE HAD              
ALREADY PULLED EAST WITH THE LEAD UPPER SYSTEM... THUS ONLY LIGHT               
QPF AMOUNTS OF 0.25 OR LESS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF                
THIS EVENT.                                                                     
THE TEMPERATURES CONTINUED TO SHOW A WIDE RANGE AT MID MORNING...               
FROM 33-34 AT WINSTON-SALEM TO ROXBORO (IN THE HEART OF THE HYBRID              
COLD AIR DAMMING AREA)... TO THE LOWER 60S OVER AREAS FROM RALEIGH              
SOUTH AND EAST TO THE COAST (WHERE THE WARM FRONT HAD LIFTED                    
NORTHWARD). THE HYBRID CAD EVENT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY GIVE WAY              
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...             
SURFACE HIGHS MAY STILL HOLD AROUND 50 IN THE NW... RANGING TO NEAR             
70 SE.                                                                          
COLD AIR WILL BE ARRIVING AS THE REMAINDER OF THE SHOWERS ENDS LATE             
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT. THUS...            
THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN MIXED WITH A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW              
MAINLY ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER COUNTIES (N OF RDU) FOR A HOUR OR TWO             
BEFORE ENDING. HOWEVER... NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.                          
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
AS OF 220 AM WEDNESDAY... THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EVOLVING LARGELY              
AS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING... WITH THE FULL LATITUDE MID LEVEL              
TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE MISS VALLEY THEN SHARPENING AS IT SWINGS             
THROUGH NC TONIGHT. SEVERAL WEAK LOWS EXIST ALONG THE COLD FRONT...             
CURRENTLY RUNNING FROM E OH TO E TN TO S MS... AND ANOTHER LEE LOW              
APPEARS TO BE FORMING ALONG THE WEDGE FRONT OVER UPSTATE SC INTO THE            
SRN NC FOOTHILLS. DESPITE PRECIPITATION FALLING THROUGH 10-15C AIR              
JUST 0.5-1.0 KM ALOFT... THE STABLE WEDGE REMAINS LOCKED IN OVER THE            
WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE SURFACE TEMPS HOLD IN THE LOW-MID 30S. THE               
WEDGE FRONT HAS MOVED LITTLE IN THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS... STRETCHING            
FROM JUST SE OF WADESBORO / SANFORD / RALEIGH / HALIFAX. AS ONE                 
MIGHT EXPECT... THE LARGE SCALE MODELS ARE DEPICTING THE DETAILS OF             
THE WEDGE REGIME POORLY. THE RUC13 IS DOING MUCH BETTER AND IT                  
INDICATES THAT THE STABLE POOL WILL NOT BECOME DISLODGED FROM THE               
FAR NW PIEDMONT PRIOR TO COLD FRONT PASSAGE. 925-850 MB WINDS ARE               
FROM THE SOUTH... NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE WEDGE FRONT... AND ARE                 
EXPECTED TO VEER TO WSW AS A LOW LEVEL TROUGH... LOCATED ALONG THE              
AL/GA BORDER AT 00Z... PIVOTS NORTHEAST AND THROUGH THE CWA LATER               
THIS MORNING. ALL OF THIS MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES IN THE TRIAD ARE              
ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE THROUGH THE 30S... AND THAT MAY BE                        
OPTIMISTIC... BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TOWARD MIDDAY...             
AND THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LEE LOW ALONG THE WEDGE FRONT               
WOULD ONLY REINFORCE THIS IDEA. TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHEAST                   
HOWEVER WILL UNDOUBTEDLY HOLD IN OR RISE THROUGH THE LOW-MID 60S AS             
INTENSE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PERSISTS.                                  
REGARDING RAIN CHANCES AND THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS... LATEST                  
GUIDANCE AND TRENDS ARE ON PACE WITH THE FORECAST WITH WIDESPREAD               
RAIN... OCCASIONALLY MODERATE AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE OVER             
200% OF NORMAL... LASTING THROUGH THE MORNING. DYNAMIC FORCING IS               
STRONG WITH MODEL WIND PROGS ON THE 1.5 PVU SURFACE DEPICTING                   
IDEALLY JUXTAPOSED POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS OVER NC THIS                      
MORNING... HOWEVER THE CHANCES OF STRONG CONVECTION AND ISOLATED                
SEVERE STORMS TODAY ARE HIGHLY RELIANT ON THE DEGREE OF POTENTIAL               
INSTABILITY. 00Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS AND LATEST RUC-ADJUSTED PLOTS               
FROM SPC SHOW JUST 100 J/KG OF CAPE OR LESS (AND THIS IS ELEVATED               
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WEST OF THE WEDGE FRONT) ALTHOUGH ANY                     
ADDITIONAL BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING WILL PUMP UP THESE NUMBERS QUICKLY            
IN THE WARM SECTOR... AND BUFR SOUNDINGS AT FAY SHOW A FEW HUNDRED              
J/KG OF CAPE BY THIS AFTERNOON. OF COURSE THE LOW LEVEL STORM                   
RELATIVE HELICITY IS OVER 500 M2/S2 NEAR AND NW OF THE WEDGE                    
FRONT... SO IF WE CAN GET ANY DISCRETE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS GOING...             
THEY`LL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR QUICK SPINUP IF THEY TRAVERSE THIS               
ZONE OF HIGH VORTICITY. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH NEAR A SURFACE LOW              
CENTER EXPECTED TO SPIN UP OFF THE SC COAST THIS MORNING...                     
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAX NOTED ON WATER VAPOR                  
IMAGERY TRACKING UP THE COAST. LATER TODAY... AS THE 80+ KT 500 MB              
JET WRAPS AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW UP INTO ERN NC... HODOGRAPHS WILL            
BECOME STRONGLY LINEAR WITH 60+ KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR... AND A FEW            
BOWING SEGMENTS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS... MAINLY ALONG/EAST            
OF I-95 THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SREF PROBABILITIES OF NEGATIVE LI                  
VALUES AND CAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG ARE BETTER THAN 50%... AND WHERE A            
POOL OF 100-150 M MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL MOVE IN LATE IN THE               
DAY.                                                                            
AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN 2 AND 8 PM... THE LOW LEVEL COLD             
AIR WILL SLOWLY FILTER INTO THE CWA WITH THE TERRAIN TEMPORARILY                
HOLDING OFF THE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THERE IS SOME                   
CONCERN ABOUT A POSSIBLE END AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIP                 
TONIGHT. THE EXTENT AND SPEED OF THE COLDER AIR PUSHING IN AND THE              
POTENTIAL RAPID DEEPENING OF A SURFACE LOW OVER OR JUST OFF THE NE              
NC COAST... AS THE DEEPENING MID LEVEL LOW SHIFTS OVER THE AREA...              
BOTH POSE SOME CONCERN. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE COLD AIR WILL            
LARGELY BE CHASING THE BEST MOISTURE... AND FORECAST BUFR SOUNDINGS             
FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE WANING MOISTURE IN THE CRYSTAL               
GROWTH AREA ALOFT. BUT GIVEN ENOUGH DYNAMIC LIFT PRODUCED BY THE MID            
LEVEL LOW... THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SATURATION IN THIS AREA.               
BASED ON THIS... AND ON THE OVERALL VIGOROUS AND HIGHLY ANOMALOUS               
NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM... WILL INCLUDE A SHORT PERIOD OF                         
INCONSEQUENTIAL RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE NORTH BEFORE PRECIP ENDS                   
OVERNIGHT. LOWS 28-37 ACROSS THE CWA. -GIH                                      
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...                        
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY... A CHILLY NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SURFACE HIGH            
BUILDS QUICKLY INTO AND OVER NC THURSDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE                    
DEPARTING MID LEVEL TROUGH... SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND STRONG                      
SUBSIDENCE WITH A VERY DRY COLUMN WILL EQUATE TO CONSIDERABLE                   
SUNSHINE. THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE SUPPORTS HIGHS CLOSE TO                 
NORMAL THURSDAY... 52-58. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE              
THURSDAY AND RETURN FLOW COMMENCES... LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES BOUNCE              
UP AROUND 10-15 M ABOVE NORMAL... SUPPORTING HIGHS AROUND 61-66 WITH            
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. -GIH                                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                  
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY... OUR NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM... NOW              
PUSHING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW... DROPS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST               
AND DEEPENS FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE... A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT             
WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT WITH A PRECEDING DRY               
AND STABLE AIR MASS WITH DOWNSLOPE 850 MB FLOW... ALONG WITH A LACK             
OF SIGNIFICANT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OR OTHER LARGE SCALE FORCING                  
MECHANISM... THIS FRONT SHOULD COME THROUGH LARGELY DRY BUT WITH                
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWS 34-40.                               
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES DROP BACK BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT AND               
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FOLLOW SUIT... ONLY RISING TO 48-56 AS A POLAR              
SOURCE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY             
CLOUDY FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY... PRIMARILY OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS                 
CLOSER TO THE FRONT... AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS ENE FROM THE               
SOUTHWEST LOW.                                                                  
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO PART WAYS WITH THE SPEED OF THIS STORM            
SYSTEM AS IT EJECTS THROUGH TX INTO THE OH VALLEY AND INTERIOR NE...            
ONLY NOW IT`S THE ECMWF THAT IS A TAD FASTER. BUT THEY DO SEEM TO BE            
CONVERGING ON A COMMON SOLUTION. THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW IS LIKELY             
TO RIDE NORTHEAST AND DAMPEN INTO A SHORTWAVE PASSING JUST TO OUR NW            
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT... AS THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO                
DEEP TROUGHING OVER ALL OF EASTERN NOAM. THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED              
TO OUR NE IS EXPECTED TO NOSE BACK INTO THE PIEDMONT IN A DAMMING               
FASHION... AND AS RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY WITH IMPROVING                   
OVERRUNNING... A DAMMING REGIME IS LIKELY TO ENSUE. SURFACE                     
CYCLOGENESIS IS LIKELY SOMEWHERE OVER THE WEST GULF COAST EARLY                 
SUNDAY... AND WHILE THIS LOW IS LIKELY TO TRACK ALONG OR JUST EITHER            
SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS ALONG A COLD FRONT... WHETHER IT ENDS UP AS            
A MILLER TYPE-A OR TYPE-B CYCLOGENESIS PATTERN IS STILL UP IN THE               
AIR. WILL HAVE INCREASING POPS FROM CHANCE SUNDAY TO LOW END LIKELY             
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. EXPECT BLUSTERY NW LOW LEVEL FLOW BEHIND              
THIS SYSTEM LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH                
AXIS PUSHING THROUGH... AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WELL BELOW                   
NORMAL. -GIH                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                     
AS OF 200 AM WEDNESDAY... SHARP CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE             
CWA DUE IMPART TO HIGH PRESSURE WEDGED OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF              
THE CWA...COOLER AIR AND WARM/STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH THE EASTERN              
PORTION... WARMER AIR.  AS A RESULT OF THIS WEATHER PATTERN... INT              
AND GSO WILL HAVE LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING. WITH                     
TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND FREEZING THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SOME            
FREEZING RAIN. RDU WILL SERVE AS THE TRANSITION ZONE WITH LIFR TO               
IFR CONDITIONS... WHILE FAY AND RWI... WHO WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF            
THE FRONT WILL EXPERIENCE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW            
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER             
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE MORNING.                
AS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN TENNESSEE MOVES SLOWLY EAST... THE            
WEDGE SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE LATE MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY THROUGH             
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA MOVES WEST... SQUEEZING OUT THE                  
WEDGE. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA MAINLY DURING THE                
AFTERNOON... RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA... BRINGING THE                      
POSSIBILITY OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED                      
THUNDERSTORMS.                                                                  
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE                
AREA FROM THE WEST... HOWEVER SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD            
LEAD TO SOME CLOUD BASES BETWEEN 25 HUNDRED AND 5 THOUSAND FEET                 
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING... OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL                 
PREVAIL THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.                                  
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OFFSHORE               
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES DRIFTS               
EAST AND SOUTHEAST. AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA WITH THE                
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA... MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE               
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.                    
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT/JH                                                           
NEAR TERM...JH/BADGETT                                                          
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD                                                          
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD                                                           
AVIATION...RHJ                                                                  
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
1042 AM EST WED FEB 13 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA              
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.         
THE FRONT AND THE ASSOCIATED STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST                 
THROUGH THE REGION BY MID OR LAT AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL                  
BUILD FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA LATE TONIGHT              
THROUGH FRIDAY.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
AS OF 1030 AM TODAY...                                                          
MSAS SHOWS THE TENACIOUS WEDGE FROM LAST NIGHT SLOWLY STARTING TO               
GIVE WAY AS NOTED BY PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE WEDGE AREA AND                   
SLIGHT BUMP IN TEMPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE TRIANGLE.                   
HOWEVER WINDOW BETWEEN DEPARTING COLD POOL AND UPSTREAM COLD FRONT              
WONT LAST LONG AS WILL LIKELY TAKE THE FRONT TO FINALLY SCOUR OUT ALL           
THE LEFTOVER COLD AIR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE TROF AXIS STILL TO               
THE WEST...EXPECT BANDS OF -RA/SHRA TO PERSIST ACROSS THE                       
WEST/NORTH INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE DRY SLOT WINS OUT AND THE            
FRONT TURNS THE FLOW MORE WESTERLY. THUS THINKING OF KEEPING HIGH               
POPS GOING FROM THE TRIAD EAST WHILE CUTTING BACK A BIT OVER THE                
SW. EVENTUALLY EXPECT WILL SEE THE DRY SLOT OVER THE EASTERN ZONES              
IN THE WAKE OF THE COASTAL WAVE FILL BACK IN WITH A BAND OF                     
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA AS THE FRONT NEARS LATER ON. FORECAST INSTABILITY               
SUGGESTS THIS COVERAGE MAY REDEVELOP ACROSS THE SANDHILLS/CENTRAL               
COASTAL PLAIN BEFORE SLIDING TO THE COAST. OTRW CLOUDS TO HOLD                  
WITH SOME BREAKS NW TIER AS DRIER W/NW TRAJECTORY DEVELOPS LATE                 
WHICH SHOULD LIMIT SNOW THREAT UNLESS UPPER SYSTEMS SLOWS SOME.                 
HIGH TEMPS VERY TRICKY GIVEN SLOWER WEDGE EXODUS AND LATER COLD                 
ADVECTION ALOFT WEST WHILE WARMING CONTINUES SE OF THE WEDGE A BIT              
LONGER. BASED ON CURRENT TEMPS AND LATEST LAV...LOWERED HIGHS A                 
CAT OR SO TRIANGLE NORTH AND WEST WHILE GOING CLOSE TO 70 SE.                   
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
AS OF 845 AM TODAY...                                                           
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE H85 WARM FRONT AND MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE                
(SEEN LIFTING UP THE NC COAST AT 830 AM...) THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND               
THREAT OF CONVECTION HAD SHIFTED NE OF CENTRAL NC. THE THREAT OF                
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS HAD ALSO SHIFTED TO THE OUTER BANKS AS OF 845            
AM. THERE WAS A DISTINCT DRY SLOT OVER CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING...               
WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT OF NC.             
THIS INCREASE IN SHOWERS TO OUR WEST SHOULD SPREAD EAST ACROSS                  
CENTRAL NC MID TO LATE MORNING... AND CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON AS              
THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND              
OVER THE PIEDMONT. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING             
THROUGH CENTRAL NC DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... IT              
APPEARS THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE HAD              
ALREADY PULLED EAST WITH THE LEAD UPPER SYSTEM... THUS ONLY LIGHT               
QPF AMOUNTS OF 0.25 OR LESS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF                
THIS EVENT.                                                                     
THE TEMPERATURES CONTINUED TO SHOW A WIDE RANGE AT MID MORNING...               
FROM 33-34 AT WINSTON-SALEM TO ROXBORO (IN THE HEART OF THE HYBRID              
COLD AIR DAMMING AREA)... TO THE LOWER 60S OVER AREAS FROM RALEIGH              
SOUTH AND EAST TO THE COAST (WHERE THE WARM FRONT HAD LIFTED                    
NORTHWARD). THE HYBRID CAD EVENT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY GIVE WAY              
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...             
SURFACE HIGHS MAY STILL HOLD AROUND 50 IN THE NW... RANGING TO NEAR             
70 SE.                                                                          
COLD AIR WILL BE ARRIVING AS THE REMAINDER OF THE SHOWERS ENDS LATE             
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT. THUS...            
THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN MIXED WITH A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW              
MAINLY ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER COUNTIES (N OF RDU) FOR A HOUR OR TWO             
BEFORE ENDING. HOWEVER... NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.                          
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
AS OF 220 AM WEDNESDAY... THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EVOLVING LARGELY              
AS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING... WITH THE FULL LATITUDE MID LEVEL              
TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE MISS VALLEY THEN SHARPENING AS IT SWINGS             
THROUGH NC TONIGHT. SEVERAL WEAK LOWS EXIST ALONG THE COLD FRONT...             
CURRENTLY RUNNING FROM E OH TO E TN TO S MS... AND ANOTHER LEE LOW              
APPEARS TO BE FORMING ALONG THE WEDGE FRONT OVER UPSTATE SC INTO THE            
SRN NC FOOTHILLS. DESPITE PRECIPITATION FALLING THROUGH 10-15C AIR              
JUST 0.5-1.0 KM ALOFT... THE STABLE WEDGE REMAINS LOCKED IN OVER THE            
WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE SURFACE TEMPS HOLD IN THE LOW-MID 30S. THE               
WEDGE FRONT HAS MOVED LITTLE IN THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS... STRETCHING            
FROM JUST SE OF WADESBORO / SANFORD / RALEIGH / HALIFAX. AS ONE                 
MIGHT EXPECT... THE LARGE SCALE MODELS ARE DEPICTING THE DETAILS OF             
THE WEDGE REGIME POORLY. THE RUC13 IS DOING MUCH BETTER AND IT                  
INDICATES THAT THE STABLE POOL WILL NOT BECOME DISLODGED FROM THE               
FAR NW PIEDMONT PRIOR TO COLD FRONT PASSAGE. 925-850 MB WINDS ARE               
FROM THE SOUTH... NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE WEDGE FRONT... AND ARE                 
EXPECTED TO VEER TO WSW AS A LOW LEVEL TROUGH... LOCATED ALONG THE              
AL/GA BORDER AT 00Z... PIVOTS NORTHEAST AND THROUGH THE CWA LATER               
THIS MORNING. ALL OF THIS MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES IN THE TRIAD ARE              
ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE THROUGH THE 30S... AND THAT MAY BE                        
OPTIMISTIC... BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TOWARD MIDDAY...             
AND THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LEE LOW ALONG THE WEDGE FRONT               
WOULD ONLY REINFORCE THIS IDEA. TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHEAST                   
HOWEVER WILL UNDOUBTEDLY HOLD IN OR RISE THROUGH THE LOW-MID 60S AS             
INTENSE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PERSISTS.                                  
REGARDING RAIN CHANCES AND THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS... LATEST                  
GUIDANCE AND TRENDS ARE ON PACE WITH THE FORECAST WITH WIDESPREAD               
RAIN... OCCASIONALLY MODERATE AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE OVER             
200% OF NORMAL... LASTING THROUGH THE MORNING. DYNAMIC FORCING IS               
STRONG WITH MODEL WIND PROGS ON THE 1.5 PVU SURFACE DEPICTING                   
IDEALLY JUXTAPOSED POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS OVER NC THIS                      
MORNING... HOWEVER THE CHANCES OF STRONG CONVECTION AND ISOLATED                
SEVERE STORMS TODAY ARE HIGHLY RELIANT ON THE DEGREE OF POTENTIAL               
INSTABILITY. 00Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS AND LATEST RUC-ADJUSTED PLOTS               
FROM SPC SHOW JUST 100 J/KG OF CAPE OR LESS (AND THIS IS ELEVATED               
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WEST OF THE WEDGE FRONT) ALTHOUGH ANY                     
ADDITIONAL BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING WILL PUMP UP THESE NUMBERS QUICKLY            
IN THE WARM SECTOR... AND BUFR SOUNDINGS AT FAY SHOW A FEW HUNDRED              
J/KG OF CAPE BY THIS AFTERNOON. OF COURSE THE LOW LEVEL STORM                   
RELATIVE HELICITY IS OVER 500 M2/S2 NEAR AND NW OF THE WEDGE                    
FRONT... SO IF WE CAN GET ANY DISCRETE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS GOING...             
THEY`LL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR QUICK SPINUP IF THEY TRAVERSE THIS               
ZONE OF HIGH VORTICITY. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH NEAR A SURFACE LOW              
CENTER EXPECTED TO SPIN UP OFF THE SC COAST THIS MORNING...                     
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAX NOTED ON WATER VAPOR                  
IMAGERY TRACKING UP THE COAST. LATER TODAY... AS THE 80+ KT 500 MB              
JET WRAPS AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW UP INTO ERN NC... HODOGRAPHS WILL            
BECOME STRONGLY LINEAR WITH 60+ KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR... AND A FEW            
BOWING SEGMENTS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS... MAINLY ALONG/EAST            
OF I-95 THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SREF PROBABILITIES OF NEGATIVE LI                  
VALUES AND CAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG ARE BETTER THAN 50%... AND WHERE A            
POOL OF 100-150 M MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL MOVE IN LATE IN THE               
DAY.                                                                            
AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN 2 AND 8 PM... THE LOW LEVEL COLD             
AIR WILL SLOWLY FILTER INTO THE CWA WITH THE TERRAIN TEMPORARILY                
HOLDING OFF THE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THERE IS SOME                   
CONCERN ABOUT A POSSIBLE END AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIP                 
TONIGHT. THE EXTENT AND SPEED OF THE COLDER AIR PUSHING IN AND THE              
POTENTIAL RAPID DEEPENING OF A SURFACE LOW OVER OR JUST OFF THE NE              
NC COAST... AS THE DEEPENING MID LEVEL LOW SHIFTS OVER THE AREA...              
BOTH POSE SOME CONCERN. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE COLD AIR WILL            
LARGELY BE CHASING THE BEST MOISTURE... AND FORECAST BUFR SOUNDINGS             
FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE WANING MOISTURE IN THE CRYSTAL               
GROWTH AREA ALOFT. BUT GIVEN ENOUGH DYNAMIC LIFT PRODUCED BY THE MID            
LEVEL LOW... THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SATURATION IN THIS AREA.               
BASED ON THIS... AND ON THE OVERALL VIGOROUS AND HIGHLY ANOMALOUS               
NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM... WILL INCLUDE A SHORT PERIOD OF                         
INCONSEQUENTIAL RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE NORTH BEFORE PRECIP ENDS                   
OVERNIGHT. LOWS 28-37 ACROSS THE CWA. -GIH                                      
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...                        
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY... A CHILLY NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SURFACE HIGH            
BUILDS QUICKLY INTO AND OVER NC THURSDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE                    
DEPARTING MID LEVEL TROUGH... SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND STRONG                      
SUBSIDENCE WITH A VERY DRY COLUMN WILL EQUATE TO CONSIDERABLE                   
SUNSHINE. THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE SUPPORTS HIGHS CLOSE TO                 
NORMAL THURSDAY... 52-58. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE              
THURSDAY AND RETURN FLOW COMMENCES... LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES BOUNCE              
UP AROUND 10-15 M ABOVE NORMAL... SUPPORTING HIGHS AROUND 61-66 WITH            
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. -GIH                                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                  
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY... OUR NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM... NOW              
PUSHING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW... DROPS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST               
AND DEEPENS FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE... A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT             
WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT WITH A PRECEDING DRY               
AND STABLE AIR MASS WITH DOWNSLOPE 850 MB FLOW... ALONG WITH A LACK             
OF SIGNIFICANT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OR OTHER LARGE SCALE FORCING                  
MECHANISM... THIS FRONT SHOULD COME THROUGH LARGELY DRY BUT WITH                
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWS 34-40.                               
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES DROP BACK BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT AND               
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FOLLOW SUIT... ONLY RISING TO 48-56 AS A POLAR              
SOURCE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY             
CLOUDY FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY... PRIMARILY OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS                 
CLOSER TO THE FRONT... AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS ENE FROM THE               
SOUTHWEST LOW.                                                                  
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO PART WAYS WITH THE SPEED OF THIS STORM            
SYSTEM AS IT EJECTS THROUGH TX INTO THE OH VALLEY AND INTERIOR NE...            
ONLY NOW IT`S THE ECMWF THAT IS A TAD FASTER. BUT THEY DO SEEM TO BE            
CONVERGING ON A COMMON SOLUTION. THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW IS LIKELY             
TO RIDE NORTHEAST AND DAMPEN INTO A SHORTWAVE PASSING JUST TO OUR NW            
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT... AS THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO                
DEEP TROUGHING OVER ALL OF EASTERN NOAM. THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED              
TO OUR NE IS EXPECTED TO NOSE BACK INTO THE PIEDMONT IN A DAMMING               
FASHION... AND AS RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY WITH IMPROVING                   
OVERRUNNING... A DAMMING REGIME IS LIKELY TO ENSUE. SURFACE                     
CYCLOGENESIS IS LIKELY SOMEWHERE OVER THE WEST GULF COAST EARLY                 
SUNDAY... AND WHILE THIS LOW IS LIKELY TO TRACK ALONG OR JUST EITHER            
SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS ALONG A COLD FRONT... WHETHER IT ENDS UP AS            
A MILLER TYPE-A OR TYPE-B CYCLOGENESIS PATTERN IS STILL UP IN THE               
AIR. WILL HAVE INCREASING POPS FROM CHANCE SUNDAY TO LOW END LIKELY             
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. EXPECT BLUSTERY NW LOW LEVEL FLOW BEHIND              
THIS SYSTEM LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH                
AXIS PUSHING THROUGH... AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WELL BELOW                   
NORMAL. -GIH                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                     
AS OF 200 AM WEDNESDAY... SHARP CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE             
CWA DUE IMPART TO HIGH PRESSURE WEDGED OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF              
THE CWA...COOLER AIR AND WARM/STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH THE EASTERN              
PORTION... WARMER AIR.  AS A RESULT OF THIS WEATHER PATTERN... INT              
AND GSO WILL HAVE LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING. WITH                     
TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND FREEZING THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SOME            
FREEZING RAIN. RDU WILL SERVE AS THE TRANSITION ZONE WITH LIFR TO               
IFR CONDITIONS... WHILE FAY AND RWI... WHO WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF            
THE FRONT WILL EXPERIENCE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW            
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER             
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE MORNING.                
AS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN TENNESSEE MOVES SLOWLY EAST... THE            
WEDGE SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE LATE MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY THROUGH             
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA MOVES WEST... SQUEEZING OUT THE                  
WEDGE. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA MAINLY DURING THE                
AFTERNOON... RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA... BRINGING THE                      
POSSIBILITY OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED                      
THUNDERSTORMS.                                                                  
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE                
AREA FROM THE WEST... HOWEVER SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD            
LEAD TO SOME CLOUD BASES BETWEEN 25 HUNDRED AND 5 THOUSAND FEET                 
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING... OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL                 
PREVAIL THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.                                  
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OFFSHORE               
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES DRIFTS               
EAST AND SOUTHEAST. AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA WITH THE                
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA... MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE               
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.                    
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT/JH                                                           
NEAR TERM...JH/BADGETT                                                          
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD                                                          
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD                                                           
AVIATION...RHJ                                                                  
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA                                             
505 PM EST WED FEB 13 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NE FROM CAPE COD THIS EVENING WHILE ANOTHER              
LOW DEVELOPING OFF MID ATLC COAST WILL TRACK WELL SE OF NANTUCKET               
THU MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE THU AND            
THU EVENING. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL            
SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE FRI. MUCH COLDER AIR ON             
WILL FOLLOW FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE                 
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING              
HEAVY RAIN SUN NIGHT AND MON WHICH MAY BEGIN AS A PERIOD OF SNOW AND            
ICE IN THE INTERIOR. COLDER UNSTABLE AIR MOVES IN FOR TUESDAY WITH              
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY.                                                
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...                                          
RECORD RAINS OCCURRED TODAY AT BDL AND BOSTON.                                  
EXPANDED WIND ADVY SE RI AND S COASTAL MA. RUNNING PRODUCTS. 45 KTS             
AT BID.                                                                         
SKYWARN IS HERE IN THE OFFICE.                                                  
ICESTORM ..POCKEST IN THE MONADNOCKS. ZR ADVY IN MHT AREA FOR TAIL              
END ICING POSSIBLE THIS EVE.                                                    
MAIN BRUNT OF THE SNOW AND ICE WAS DONE AT NOON.  COMBINED SNOW AND             
ICE MADE NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES NR I91-CT RVR VALLEY AND WE`VE HEARD            
OF ROOF FAILURES IN NH.                                                         
SEE HYDRO SECTION...FLS`S/FFW ETC AS POSTED. FFA SHORTENED TO 9PM. BY           
THEN THE BAND OF R+ IS DONE AND URBAN FLOODING IS COMPLTED. THEN WE             
TURN TO RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL AS WRITTEN IN THE FLOOD STATEMENT.                
A WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR NANTUCKET AND CAPE COD TODAY. 40-45 KT            
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING           
LOW. WE SAW G46KT AT MQE 1703Z WHILE BOS WAS CALM./ THATS ABOUT 650             
FT OF HUGE WIND SHEAR IN THE VCNTY OF BOS AT 17Z. UNCONFIRMED REPORT            
OF WIND ADVY CRITERIA SE PYM COUNTY BUT ASOS MAXD AT 38KTS AN HOUR              
AFTER THE REPORT.                                                               
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ALONG THE SOUTH             
COAST AND ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS BETWEEN NOW AND 01Z TODAY.                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...                                 
THU MORNING... CAN SEE A NEED OF A WXA FOR SE MA AND RI BTWN 09Z-14Z            
THU AS FRINGE BANDING OF THE VA CAPES LOW GRAZES SE NEW ENGL;AND                
WHILE STG BL CAA OCCURS. THIS COULD BE 0.1 WATER EQUIV MIXED PCPN               
COMBINED SLEET/SNOW AND WITH TEMPS FALLING WELL BLO FREEZING AT                 
DAYBREAK /SEE NYS NOW FOR THE COLD SOURCE/. UK HAS IT WELL DEFINED AS           
DOES THE OP GFS AND ACTUALLY THE GFS ENS AND SREF ENS HINT AT THIS.             
THIS COULD MEAN A VERY SLOW MORNING COMMUTE VCNTY PVD-PYM-EWB.                  
THU AFTN...TEMP FCST MAY BE 3F TOO WARM. BLO AVG CONFIDENCE ON THE              
CURRENT FCST TEMPS THU AFTN. THINK RUNNING IT 2-3F COLDER IS THE WAY            
TO MOVE ON THE ENXT FCST.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                
SFC RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF THE REGION THU NIGHT AS NEXT                    
NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES TO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.                 
ASSOCD COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION BY LATE FRI AND HAVE            
FOLLOWED FASTER CONSENSUS LED GFS SOLUTION. BEST MOISTURE AND UPPER             
LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE NORTH OF FA...BUT WE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC                
POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR FRI/FRI EVENING BASED ON STRENGTH OF FRONT.               
EXPECT GUSTY SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON FRI WHICH WILL PUSH                 
TEMPS INTO UPPER 40S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...BUT HOLDING IN THE                  
UPPER 30S NW HIGHER TERRAIN.                                                    
GUSTY POST FRONTAL NW WINDS WILL DRIVE MUCH COLDER AIR INTO SNE FRI             
NIGHT INTO SAT AS STRONG CAA DROPS 850 MB TEMPS TO NEAR -18.  GFS 2M            
TEMPS VERY COLD LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BUT PROBABLY ARE A LITTLE               
OVERDONE ON THIS AIRMASS.  HOWEVER...GMOS TEMPS TOO WARM SO WE                  
BLENDED GFS 2M TEMPS WITH GMOS FOR FRI NIGHT MIN AND SAT MAX.                   
EXPECTED MINS LATE FRI NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM NEAR ZERO NW HIGHER                
TERRAIN TO TEENS S COAST WITH WIND CHILLS SAT MORNING POSSIBLY                  
APPROACHING -15 FROM BERKSHIRES TO MONADNOCKS AND ZERO TO 5 COASTAL             
PLAIN.  MAXES SAT WILL STRUGGLE INTO LOWER TEENS NW ZONES AND                   
PROBABLY NOT MUCH HIGHER THAN LOW 20S COASTAL PLAIN.  A PERIOD OF               
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING LIKELY SAT NIGHT AS HIGH BUILDS OVER THE               
REGION SO ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT EXPECTED SAT NIGHT.  WE HAVE MINS             
RANGING FROM NEAR ZERO NW TO TEENS ALONG THE COAST...BUT TEMPS MAY              
END UP COLDER.                                                                  
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING NEXT STORM FOR SUN                
NGT/MON.  PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM APPEARS LIKELY                
RESULTING IN HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF FROM GT LAKES TO GULF COAST ON                 
MON.  MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES WITH TRACK AND TIMING BUT ALL                
AGREE THAT LOW WILL TRACK TO THE WEST WHICH WILL RESULT IN MOST OF              
THE PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN SUN NGT INTO MON.  HOWEVER...RESIDUAL                
COLD AIR MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF SNOW AND ICE AT THE ONSET IN THE             
DISTANT INTERIOR IF THE PRECIP COMES IN EARLY ENOUGH SUN NIGHT.                 
EXPECT RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT SUN NGT WITH WARM SECTOR 50S POSSIBLE             
ON MON IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.                                                    
THIS STORM HAS POTENTIAL TO BE ANOTHER HEAVY RAFL PRODUCER.  GEFS               
SHOWING STRONG SOUTHERLY INFLOW OF +3SD COMBINED WITH +4SD PWAT                 
ANOMALY WHICH IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.  1-2" RAFL WITH                
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS SEEMS MORE THAN REASONABLE FOR THIS EVENT AND            
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE GIVEN GFS AND INTERNATIONAL MODELS HAVE             
AGREEMENT ON THIS.                                                              
RAIN ENDS BY MON NIGHT...THEN COLDER TUE/WED WITH PTCLDY SKIES.                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                     
TODAY...IFR/LIFR IN RAIN...OCCASIONALLY HEAVY...WITH ISOLATED THUNDER           
MAINLY SOUTH COAST AND CAPE COD. LLWS ACK/HYA/PVD/BOS WITH STRONG               
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET. WIND GUSTS TO 40 KT POSSIBLE AT KACK.                  
ICE FREE WIND SENSOR PBLMS FORCED ADDING NIL AMD TO ORH. WE WILL AMD            
ORH AND ANY OTHER NIL AMDS AS TIME AND CONFIDENCE DICTATES.                     
TONIGHT...CIGS/VSBY IMPROVE STEADILY TO GENERALLY VFR EXCPT IFR CIGS            
ACK REGION. THEN CONDS AT PVD HYA AND ACK MAY DETEIORATE FOR A FEW              
HOURS TO IFR OR LIFR IN MXD PCPN...POSSIBLY BRIEFLY HEAVY FOR AN HOUR           
OR SO AROUND SUNRISE AS CSI INDICATED IN SOME OF OUR GUIDANCE.                  
THU...VFR NW AND BECOMING VFR SE. PLS SEE TAFS FOR DETAILS.                     
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...                                      
VFR THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN.  LOW PROB OF BRIEF MVFR FRI AFTN AND FRI             
EVENING IF ANY RA/SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP.  GUSTY PREFRONTAL SW WINDS              
EXPECTED FRI FOLLOWED BY GUSTY NW WINDS FRI NIGHT.                              
CONDITIONS LIKELY LOWERING TO IFR SUN NGT AND MON WITH HEAVY RAIN               
POSSIBLE POSSIBLY STARTING AS SNOW/ICE IN THE INTERIOR SUN NIGHT.               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
MARGINAL SLY GALE NOW VCNTY CAPE COD. GETTER CHANCE NLY GALE THU                
MORNING S AND E OF CAPE COD. ELSEWHERE SCA AT TIMES THRU THU.                   
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...                                      
DIMINISHING WINDS THU NIGHT...THEN INCREASING PRE FRONTAL SW FLOW               
FRI FOLLWED BY NEAR GALE FORCE POST FRONTAL NW FLOW FRI NIGHT AND               
AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY.  NW WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH SAT WITH                  
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS SAT NIGHT.  SOUTHERLY GALES POSSIBLE SUN NGT              
AND MON AS NEXT STRONG LOW TRACKS TO THE WEST.  GFS VERY STRONG WITH            
LLJ...BUT IT IS STILL EARLY ON THIS.                                            
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
UPDATED 10 AM WED                                                               
PLS SEE ON GOING STMTS AND WARNINGS FOR LATEST INFO.                            
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS POSTED FROM NORTHERN CT AND RI INTO S CENTRAL AND           
EASTERN MA AND PART OF SW NH INTO THU MORNING.                                  
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WAS CENTERED OVER CT VALLEY REGION LATE THIS                  
MORNING AND NAM/RUC HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON IT. BOTH MODELS SHIFT THIS            
AXIS INTO RI AND EASTERN MA THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE WE WILL ALSO HAVE            
SOME RUNOFF CONTRIBUTION FROM SNOW MELT DUE TO TEMPERATURES WELL UP             
INTO 40S AND EVEN LOWER 50S. COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN                
PLACE ACROSS INTERIOR WHICH WILL LIMIT SNOW MELT.                               
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY TONIGHT.             
IN ADDITION TO SIGNIFICANT URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING...WE ARE            
ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT MINOR FLOODING ON SEVERAL SMALLER RIVERS IN                
PARTS OF RI AND EASTERN MA.                                                     
BASED UPON COORDINATION WITH NERFC...WE ARE WATCHING THE FOLLOWING              
FORECAST POINTS WHICH MAY GO INTO MINOR FLOOD EITHER TONIGHT OR                 
EARLY THU MORNING:                                                              
ASSABET RIVER AT MAYNARD MA                                                     
SUDBURY RIVER AT SAXONVILLE MA                                                  
BLACKSTONE RIVER AT WOONSOCKET RI                                               
PAWTUXET RIVER AT CRANSTON RI                                                   
IN ADDITION...MANY OTHER SMALLER RIVERS IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN MA               
ARE EXPECTED TO CREST ABOVE THEIR ACTION STAGES BUT BELOW FLOOD                 
STAGE...PRIMARILY IN LOWER MERRIMACK AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND                   
BASINS. PLEASE REFER TO THE DAILY RIVER AND LAKE SUMMARY /RVDBOX OR             
FGUS51 KBOX/ FOR SPECIFIC FORECASTS WHICH WILL BE UPDATED BY MIDDAY.            
&&                                                                              
.CLIMATE...                                                                     
DAILY RECORD PRECIPITATION FOR FEBRUARY 13TH                                    
BOSTON 1.65 1966 NEW RECORD POSSIBLE TODAY!                                     
PROVIDENCE 2.59 1966                                                            
HARTFORD 1.69 1966  NEW RECORD TODAY!                                           
WORCESTER 3.16 1900                                                             
FEBRUARY 12TH 2006 WE HAD RECORD SNOWFALL                                       
BDL 21.9 AND ALSO GREATEST EVER.                                                
BOS 17.5                                                                        
ORH 16.9                                                                        
PVD 9.4                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.                    
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ002.               
     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ005>007-009-                
     011>021.                                                                   
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.                  
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ011-               
     015.                                                                       
     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ012.                        
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ012.             
RI...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.                    
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RIZ007.                      
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231-232-250.           
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ233>237.               
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ230.            
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ254-255.                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DRAG                                                             
NEAR TERM...DRAG                                                                
SHORT TERM...DRAG                                                               
LONG TERM...KJC                                                                 
AVIATION...KJC/DRAG                                                             
MARINE...KJC/DRAG                                                               
HYDROLOGY...                                                                    
CLIMATE...                                                                      
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA                                             
413 PM EST WED FEB 13 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
DUAL COASTAL LOW PRES CENTERS IN CENTRAL LONG ISLAND SOUND AND TRYING           
TO REFORM OFF THE VIRGINIA CAPES DURING MID AFTERNOON WILL EVENTUALLY           
PASS E OF CAPE COD THU MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS THE REGION          
LATE THURSDAY. LOW PRES MOVING THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL SWING        
A COLD FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE FRIDAY. VERY COLD HIGH PRES WILL          
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY. STRONG LOW PRES MOVING INTO THE            
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUN AND THEN INTO ONTARIO CANADA MON WILL BRING         
A BIT OF ICE OR SNOW AT THE START AND THEN POTENTIALLY SUBSTANTIAL              
RAINS ON MON. COLD UNSTABLE AIR MOVES IN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.             
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...                                          
RECORD RAINS OCCURRED TODAY AT BDL AND PROBABLY BOSTON.                         
SKYWARN IS HERE IN THE OFFICE.                                                  
ICESTORM ..POCKEST IN THE MONADNOCKS. ZR ADVY IN MHT AREA FOR TAIL              
END ICING POSSIBLE THIS EVE.                                                    
MAIN BRUNT OF THE SNOW AND ICE WAS DONE AT NOON.  COMBINED SNOW AND             
ICE MADE NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES NR I91-CT RVR VALLEY AND WE`VE HEARD            
OF ROOF FAILURES IN NH.                                                         
SEE HYDRO SECTION...FLS`S/FFW ETC AS POSTED. FFA SHORTENED TO 9PM. BY           
THEN THE BAND OF R+ IS DONE AND URBAN FLOODING IS COMPLTED. THEN WE             
TURN TO RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL AS WRITTEN IN THE FLOOD STATEMENT.                
A WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR NANTUCKET AND CAPE COD TODAY. 40-45 KT            
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING           
LOW. WE SAW G46KT AT MQE 1703Z WHILE BOS WAS CALM./ THATS ABOUT 650 FT          
OF HUGE WIND SHEAR IN THE VCNTY OF BOS AT 17Z. UNCONFIRMED REPORT OF            
WIND ADVY CRITERIA SE PYM COUNTY BUT ASOS MAXD AT 38KTS AN HOUR AFTER           
THE REPORT.                                                                     
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ALONG THE SOUTH             
COAST AND ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS BETWEEN NOW AND 01Z TODAY.                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...                                 
THU MORNING... CAN SEE A NEED OF A WXA FOR SE MA AND RI BTWN 09Z-14Z            
THU AS FRINGE BANDING OF THE VA CAPES LOW GRAZES SE NEW ENGL;AND                
WHILE STG BL CAA OCCURS. THIS COULD BE 0.1 WATER EQUIV MIXED PCPN               
COMBINED SLEET/SNOW AND WITH TEMPS FALLING WELL BLO FREEZING AT                 
DAYBREAK /SEE NYS NOW FOR THE COLD SOURCE/. UK HAS IT WELL DEFINED AS           
DOES THE OP GFS AND ACTUALLY THE GFS ENS AND SREF ENS HINT AT THIS.             
THIS COULD MEAN A VERY SLOW MORNING COMMUTE VCNTY PVD-PYM-EWB.                  
THU AFTN...TEMP FCST MAY BE 3F TOO WARM. BLO AVG CONFIDENCE ON THE              
CURRENT FCST TEMPS THU AFTN. THINK RUNNING IT 2-3F COLDER IS THE WAY            
TO MOVE ON THE ENXT FCST.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                
SOME UNCERTAINTY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND THE NAM            
INDICATE A TRAILING LOW OFF THE COAST WITH RAIN LINGERING IN THE                
COASTAL PLAIN WHILE THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND OTHER MODELS SHOW A WEAK               
WAVE FARTHER OFFSHORE. WE KEPT SOME LINGERING CHANCE OF RAIN THURSDAY           
MORNING FOR THE SOUTHEAST ZONES...AND ESPECIALLY FOR THE CAPE AND               
ISLANDS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN DURING THE AFTERNOON BRINGING             
DRY WEATHER. THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS WEST TO SOUTHWEST SO NO DRASTIC             
COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.                                             
THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH A CLIPPER LOW IN THE             
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY SWINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHEAST.                 
TIMING AMONGST THE MODELS IS SIMILAR WITH THE FRONT ON A BOSTON-NEW             
YORK AXIS IN THE EVENING. MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED BUT WITH FAVORABLE             
UPPER DYNAMICS...SO WE WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS. PTYPE WILL BE                  
RAIN SHOWERS LEADING THE FRONT...AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE COLDER AIR             
TRAILING THE FRONT.                                                             
STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL AID IN BRINGING STRONG              
WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH IN TURN WILL BRING MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE            
REGION. THIS COLDER AIR WILL ALSO BE SUPPORTED BY A CHANGE IN THE               
UPPER WINDS TO NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. 850 MB TEMPS WILL DROP FROM               
AROUND 0C ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO AROUND -16C SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SO             
MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT TEENS IN SOUTHERN           
NH AND NORTHWEST MASS.                                                          
TWO SYSTEMS COME AT US LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ONE FROM THE              
GREAT LAKES AND ONE FROM THE GULF COAST. THE GULF SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE            
THE CONTROLLING SYSTEM...SPREADING PRECIP INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY               
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WITH CLOUDS MOVING IN BY EVENING AND NO SOURCE            
OF COLD AIR IN PLACE TO OUR NORTH...WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DIP A             
LITTLE IN THE EVENING BUT THEN SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT. PTYPE MAY START           
AS SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR...BUT THE OVERALL           
TREND WILL BE TOWARD RAIN.                                                      
BEHIND THE STORM WILL BE ANOTHER BURST OF COLD ADVECTION WITH 850 MB            
TEMPERATURES AROUND -20C AND A LINGERING COLD POOL/UPPER TROF                   
COMBINATION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                     
TODAY...IFR/LIFR IN RAIN...OCCASIONALLY HEAVY...WITH ISOLATED THUNDER           
MAINLY SOUTH COAST AND CAPE COD. LLWS ACK/HYA/PVD/BOS WITH STRONG               
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET. WIND GUSTS TO 40 KT POSSIBLE AT KACK.                  
ICE FREE WIND SENSOR PBLMS FORCED ADDING NIL AMD TO ORH. WE WILL AMD            
ORH AND ANY OTHER NIL AMDS AS TIME AND CONFIDENCE DICTATES.                     
TONIGHT...CIGS/VSBY IMPROVE STEADILY TO GENERALLY VFR EXCPT IFR CIGS            
ACK REGION. THEN CONDS AT PVD HYA AND ACK MAY DETEIORATE FOR A FEW              
HOURS TO IFR OR LIFR IN MXD PCPN...POSSIBLY BRIEFLY HEAVY FOR AN HOUR           
OR SO AROUND SUNRISE AS CSI INDICATED IN SOME OF OUR GUIDANCE.                  
THU...VFR NW AND BECOMING VFR SE. PLS SEE TAFS FOR DETAILS.                     
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...                                      
LINGERING IFR ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE              
VFR THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY.                                                  
MVFR OR IFR IN SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND             
NIGHT.                                                                          
COLD WINDS PICKING UP FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.             
WINDS DIMINISH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH VFR THROUGH SUNDAY MIDDAY.               
LOWERING CIGS DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MVFR/IFR IN              
SNOW AND RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
MARGINAL SLY GALE NOW VCNTY CAPE COD. GETTER CHANCE NLY GALE THU                
MORNING S AND E OF CAPE COD. ELSEWHERE SCA AT TIMES THRU THU.                   
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...                                      
NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR GALE FORCE THURSDAY MORNING WITH DIMINISHING               
WIND AND SEAS LATER IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES              
OVERHEAD. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT                      
APPROACHES. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL                
INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.              
WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN SUBSIDE AGAIN DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.                 
AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.                 
ANOTHER STORM FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY           
WINDS AND SEAS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS APPROACHING GALES ON THE                 
OUTER WATERS.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
UPDATED 10 AM WED                                                               
PLS SEE ON GOING STMTS AND WARNINGS FOR LATEST INFO.                            
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS POSTED FROM NORTHERN CT AND RI INTO S CENTRAL AND           
EASTERN MA AND PART OF SW NH INTO THU MORNING.                                  
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WAS CENTERED OVER CT VALLEY REGION LATE THIS MORNING AND      
NAM/RUC HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON IT. BOTH MODELS SHIFT THIS AXIS INTO RI AND       
EASTERN MA THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE WE WILL ALSO HAVE SOME RUNOFF CONTRIBUTION    
FROM SNOW MELT DUE TO TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO 40S AND EVEN LOWER 50S. COLDER  
AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS INTERIOR WHICH WILL LIMIT SNOW MELT.  
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY TONIGHT.             
IN ADDITION TO SIGNIFICANT URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING...WE ARE ALSO       
CONCERNED ABOUT MINOR FLOODING ON SEVERAL SMALLER RIVERS IN PARTS OF RI         
AND EASTERN MA.                                                                 
BASED UPON COORDINATION WITH NERFC...WE ARE WATCHING THE FOLLOWING FORECAST     
POINTS WHICH MAY GO INTO MINOR FLOOD EITHER TONIGHT OR EARLY THU MORNING:       
ASSABET RIVER AT MAYNARD MA                                                     
SUDBURY RIVER AT SAXONVILLE MA                                                  
BLACKSTONE RIVER AT WOONSOCKET RI                                               
PAWTUXET RIVER AT CRANSTON RI                                                   
IN ADDITION...MANY OTHER SMALLER RIVERS IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN MA ARE EXPECTED  
TO CREST ABOVE THEIR ACTION STAGES BUT BELOW FLOOD STAGE...PRIMARILY IN LOWER   
MERRIMACK AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BASINS. PLEASE REFER TO THE DAILY RIVER AND  
LAKE SUMMARY /RVDBOX OR FGUS51 KBOX/ FOR SPECIFIC FORECASTS WHICH WILL BE       
UPDATED BY MIDDAY.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.CLIMATE...                                                                     
DAILY RECORD PRECIPITATION FOR FEBRUARY 13TH                                    
BOSTON 1.65 1966 NEW RECORD POSSIBLE TODAY!                                     
PROVIDENCE 2.59 1966                                                            
HARTFORD 1.69 1966  NEW RECORD TODAY!                                           
WORCESTER 3.16 1900                                                             
FEBRUARY 12TH 2006 WE HAD RECORD SNOWFALL                                       
BDL 21.9 AND ALSO GREATEST EVER.                                                
BOS 17.5                                                                        
ORH 16.9                                                                        
PVD 9.4                                                                         
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.                       
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                     
     MAZ002>004-008>012-026.                                                    
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-009-                   
     011>021.                                                                   
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ022-024.                  
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NHZ011-             
     015.                                                                       
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NHZ012.                           
RI...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR RIZ001>007.                       
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR                   
     ANZ230>237-250.                                                            
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING             
     FOR ANZ254-255.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.                    
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ002.               
     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ005>007-009-                
     011>021.                                                                   
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ022>024.                  
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ011-               
     015.                                                                       
     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ012.                        
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ012.             
RI...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.                    
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231-232-250.           
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ233>237.               
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ230.            
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ254-255.                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DRAG                                                             
NEAR TERM...DRAG                                                                
SHORT TERM...DRAG                                                               
LONG TERM...KJC                                                                 
AVIATION...KJC/DRAG                                                             
MARINE...KJC/DRAG                                                               
HYDROLOGY...                                                                    
CLIMATE...                                                                      
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID                                           
1001 AM MST WED FEB 13 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...SURFACE COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE                
SNAKE RIVER VALLEY AT 1000 AM AND THE INITIAL BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS              
IS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. A SECOND                
BAND IS TAKING SHAPE NEAR DUBOIS AND NORHWEST WINDS ARE JUST                    
BEGINNING TO SPILL OUT OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH BIRCH CREK              
AND BIG AND LITTLE LOST VALLEYS. NAM12 AND RUC13 PICK UP ON THIS                
TAKING IT THROUGH IDAHO FALLS 1100-1300 AM AND POCATELLO ROUGHLY                
1300-1500 AM. NORTHERLY WINDS UPSLOPE INTO THE POCATELLO AREA BUT               
SNOW BAND SHOULD PUSH THROUGH IN A COUPLE OF HOURS WITH LIMITED                 
SNOW ACCUMULATION. FOR UPDATES THIS MORNING HAVE TRIMMED BACK SNOW              
ACCUMULATION IN THE SNAKE VALLEY TO AN INCH OR LESS. HIGH                       
TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED AND UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW               
THIS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NOW WILL EITHER HOLD STEADY OR COOL                 
SLIGHTLY. RS                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 AM MST WED FEB 13 2008/                         
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY               
SHOWING INCOMING SHORT-WAVE DIGGING STRONGLY SE INTO THE IDAHO                  
PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WRN EXTENT OF TROUGH EXTENDING TO             
THE OREGON COAST WHERE DECENT SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WAS NOTED IN THE                
WATER VAPOR CHANNEL. NAM/GFS STILL AT MINOR ODDS WITH SPEED OF                  
PASSING UPPER TROUGH TODAY ALTHOUGH THE 06Z NAM IS BEGINNING TO LOOK            
MORE LIKE THE GFS WITH EACH NEW RUN. GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT OVER               
THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS DRIVING THE UPPER TROUGH INTO THE REGION THIS             
MORNING WITH ATTENDING PRECIPITATION SPREADING ACROSS THE CNTRL                 
MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING THEN INTO THE SNAKE PLAINS AND SE                  
HIGHLANDS BY 18Z AS COLD FRONT DIVES THROUGH REGION. UPPER TROUGH               
SLOWS AND BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF OVER SE IDAHO FROM 18-00Z THIS                    
AFTERNOON AND THEN PER GFS DIGS SOUTH INTO NRN UTAH BY 06Z. THE FACT            
THAT THE MODEL HAS BEEN WANTING TO CLOSE THE CIRCULATION OFF OVER               
IDAHO AND YET MAINTAIN PROGRESSION OF LOW SWEEPING INTO NRN UTAH HAS            
BEEN SOMEWHAT BOTHERSOME AS EXPECTATION WOULD SUPPORT SLOWER                    
MOVEMENT OF LOW. NAM PAINTING SIMILAR PICTURE HOWEVER SO WILL FLOAT             
ALONG WITH MODELS AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR SITUATION FOR POTENTIAL               
EXTENSION OF HIGHER POPS OVER THE SE HIGHLANDS INTO THE EVENING                 
HOURS WITH HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS AND POTENTIAL HIGHLIGHTS WHERE WE             
PRESENTLY HAVE SUB-WARNING LEVEL SNOWFALL TODAY AND A GENERAL DRYING            
TREND ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. SECOND ITEM OF                   
CONCERN WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF CONVERGENCE EVENT THIS               
AFTERNOON BEHIND PASSING SURFACE FRONT TRANSITIONING INTO UPSLOPE               
FLOW ACROSS THE SE FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE CONTINUED A              
LIKELY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ERN FOOTHILLS THROUGH THE            
AFTERNOON. WAVE SHOULD BE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION BY THURSDAY                  
AFTERNOON AS A DRY NORTH FLOW ENVELOPS THE AREA. FLOW SHOULD BE                 
CONDUCIVE TO CLEARING SKIES WHICH SPELLS A VERY COLD MORNING FOR                
THURSDAY NIGHT. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED FORECAST DRY CONDITIONS AND                
COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. RIDGE WEAKENS AS NEXT                   
UPSTREAM PAC WAVE TOPS WEST COAST RIDGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON DIVING SE              
INTO MONTANA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LEADING EDGE OF WEAK PRECIPITATION               
EVENT SKIRTING NE DIVIDE AREA. THUS HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE             
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FOR NE MOUNTAINS. HUSTON                               
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP              
A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN US ON SUNDAY. AGREEMENT IS            
FAIRLY GOOD THRU MON...BUT THEN THE GFS DROPS A SMALL UPPER LOW INTO            
THE GREAT BASIN BY MON EVE. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE INTACT.                   
LOOKING AT THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...THERE IS SOME DYSFUNCTION IN              
THE HOUSEHOLD. SOME MEMBERS TAKE THE SIDE OF THE ECMWF. WITH THIS               
MUCH UNCERTAINTY...WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED.                
WILL RAISE TEMPS A LITTLE TO REFLECT THE WARMER EFFECTS OF THE                  
RIDGE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE TOTALLY OUT             
OF PHASE. HEDGES                                                                
AVIATION...IFR CIGS/VIS OVER THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN WILL                   
CONTINUE UNTIL MID MORNING...BUT WILL BE CLEARED OUT WHEN THE COLD              
FRONT PASSES. SOME LIMITED CIG/VIS DUE TO SNOW WILL OCCUR WITH THE              
FRONT...AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTN HRS. STRONG SW WINDS WILL                    
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT LAT MORNING THRU AFTN...WITH IMPROVING                      
CONDITIONS BY LATE AFTN. HEDGES                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> id                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
247 PM MST WED FEB 13 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT                
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH THE ONSET...DURATION...AND              
AMOUNT OF SNOW EXPECTED ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE                  
MIDDLE OF THURSDAY.                                                             
HAVE BASED THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WINDS                    
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING ON THE RUC WITH A TRANSITION TO                
THE NAM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. NAM AND GFS ARE IN DECENT                  
AGREEMENT ON THE FRONT TIMING AND AREAS OF PRECIPITATION...AND                  
EVEN THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE GFS USUALLY HAS A CLEAR                     
OVERABUNDANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE UPSLOPE DRIVEN                            
SNOWFALL...HOWEVER THE EASTERLY COMPONENT OF THE NEAR SURFACE                   
WINDS IN MINIMAL AND THE BULK OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS DIVE FURTHER                
SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THE ONLY UPPER SUPPORT IS THE WEAK                
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION EARLY              
THURSDAY...EXITING THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. FEEL THE BULK OF               
THE PRECIPITATION WILL HAPPEN BETWEEN 09Z AND 18Z...QUICKLY                     
TAPERING OFF AFTER 18Z AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH AND THE UPPER               
SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST.                                                          
THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTH INTO THE EXTREME              
SOUTHWEST U.S. THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TAIL END OF THE UPPER            
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS PASSES OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH                    
PLAINS. THE UPPER LOW CENTER IS NO LONGER COUPLED TO THE UPPER                  
TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LANGUISHES OVER                 
THE SOUTHWEST U.S. UNTIL THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH IN THE SERIES                    
APPROACHES ON SATURDAY AND BEGINS TO MOVE THE LOW EAST OF THE                   
ROCKIES AND ACROSS TEXAS EARLY SUNDAY. THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO                 
AMPLIFY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING FROM THE                  
WEST COAST TO THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION BY MONDAY WITH DRY                       
CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE TRI-STATE              
REGION.                                                                         
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WARM FRONT CONTINUES ITS SLOW PROGRESSION               
EAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER MUCH OF THE                   
WESTERN U.S. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON                  
LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE FRONT AND RIDGE AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH             
THE PERIOD. CONSIDERING TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IS DEPENDENT ON THE            
THE TIMING OF THE EARLY WEEK LOW...IT IS HARD TO SAY FOR CERTAIN                
EXACTLY HOW MUCH AND HOW QUICKLY TEMPERATURES WILL WARM...BUT EXPECT            
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH DAYS.                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 09Z AHEAD OF A                  
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE TRI-STATE REGION                         
OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MVFR BY 12Z WITH AREAS OF IFR                 
CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW THROUGH 18Z.                          
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LOCKHART/SFJ/JDK                                                                
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS                                          
343 PM CST WED FEB 13 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
DAYS 1-2...                                                                     
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND THE CHANCE FOR WINTRY               
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THURSDAY.                                                 
THE 12Z UA ANALYSIS SHOWED A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER           
WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON. THE GREATEST HEIGHT FALLS ON THE ORDER          
OF 100-120 METERS WERE TO THE SOUTH OF THE WAVE OVER NEVADA...SUGGESTING        
THAT THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHWARD. AT THE SURFACE...A              
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTED OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.          
SOUTH WINDS AT MANY LOCATIONS FROM LIBERAL TO SCOTT CITY THROUGH                
DODGE CITY HAVE BEEN IN AND OUT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON.            
RUC 850 WIND FIELDS SHOW THE AXIS OF THE STRONGEST WINDS SHIFTING               
EAST WITH TIME THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. A WIND ADVISORY               
WAS ISSUED FOR POINTS EAST OF A LINE FROM LIBERAL THROUGH DODGE                 
CITY AND NESS CITY TO LACROSSE...LARNED AND GREENSBURG.                         
WILL KEEP THIS INTACT AND LET IT EXPIRE AT 6 PM. WILL ALSO LET THE              
RED FLAG WARNING RIDE UNTIL EXPIRATION TIME AT 01Z. WHILE A FEW LOCATIONS       
COULD DROP TO 15 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY THROUGH PEAK HEATING, DON`T          
THINK ANY SITES WILL BE DOWN LONG ENOUGH TO VERIFY THE WARNING. THERE           
HAVE BEEN SOME WILDFIRES SPRINGING UP OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE            
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THAT COULD ALSO HAPPEN HERE BEFORE THE WINDS SUBSIDE.       
THE 12Z MODEL RUNS ARE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUNS IN MOVING THE UPPER             
LOW INTO ARIZONA BY 00Z FRIDAY. THE MODELS STILL SHOW THE FRONTAL               
BOUNDARY THROUGH ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA BY 12Z                 
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY DURING THE DAY               
AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN. THE GFS SHOWS A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL                   
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ALONG WITH A SHALLOW NEARLY SATURATED LAYER              
THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE GOING FORECAST FOR A               
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES STILL LOOKS                      
REASONABLE AT THIS TIME. APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW                 
WILL BE OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE DEEPER              
MOISTURE WILL BE BUT EVEN THIS DOES NOT LOOK TOO PROMISING GIVEN                
THE LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE.                                                 
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL COME UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER          
LEVEL JET THURSDAY NIGHT BUT WITH QUESTIONABLE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...WILL     
KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW.                            
ON FRIDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE OVER WESTERN KANSAS              
AS THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVES BY AND THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW                
SPINS OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA. DON`T SEE MUCH CHANCE FOR PRECIP OVER              
SOUTHWEST KANSAS SO WILL LOWER POPS EVEN FURTHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES             
FROM MOS ON FRIDAY SHOW SOME WIDE VARIATION. MODEL SOUNDINGS                    
SUGGEST THAT THE GOING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S LOOKS REASONABLE SO               
WILL LEAVE INTACT.                                                              
DAYS 3-7...                                                                     
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE                 
DESERT SOUTHWEST TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN                   
GENERAL AGREEMENT INDICATING THIS SYSTEM PUSHING EAST INTO THE                  
SOUTHERN PLAINS OF TEXAS BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND ON INTO THE LOWER                
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION SUNDAY BEFORE EJECTING TO THE                   
NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN CONJOIN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL                     
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE                 
NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS PARTICULAR SHORTWAVE WILL                
BRING ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS                 
SATURDAY NIGHT.                                                                 
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LEE SIDE TROUGHING WILL RETURN BRIEFLY ON                  
SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR SURFACE HIGHS TO REBOUND A BIT BEFORE THE NEXT            
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR SATURDAY,                
TEMPERATURES AT H85 WILL BE IN THE MID SINGLE DIGITS(C) ACROSS MUCH             
OF THE CWA WITH UPPER SINGLE DIGITS(C) IN EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN                  
COUNTIES. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA            
ON SUNDAY IN WAKE OF THE PASSING COLD FRONT. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE              
IN FAIR AGREEMENT INDICATING TEMPERATURES AT H85 RANGING FROM NEAR              
TO JUST BELOW ZERO(C) ACROSS NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO THE               
MID SINGLE DIGITS(C) IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THE UPPER LEVEL             
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BEGIN TO                
GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN THE WEST SLOWLY              
APPROACHES THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.             
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT AND GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH                  
WEDNESDAY. PLAN TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY THROUGHOUT MUCH OF              
THE PERIOD. WILL BUMP UP TEMPERATURES A BIT ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY              
NIGHT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKING HOLD.                                 
.AVIATION...                                                                    
A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN COLORADO WILL                      
STRENGTHEN THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING RESULTING IN FAIRLY STRONG                
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS RANGING FROM 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40               
MPH AT DDC AND GCK. WIND SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE DURING THE                
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH INTO WESTERN                 
KANSAS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT              
ALL TAF SITES THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WITH HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING              
OVERNIGHT.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DDC 30 30 13 35 / 10 30 30 10                                                   
GCK 26 26 12 36 / 10 30 30 10                                                   
EHA 28 29 13 38 / 10 40 40 10                                                   
LBL 29 30 14 37 / 10 30 30 10                                                   
HYS 26 26 7 31  / 10 30 30 10                                                   
P28 36 36 15 33  / 0 30 30 10                                                   
&&                                                                              
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST /6 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR                     
KSZ061>063-074>078-084>088.                                                     
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ045-046-064-                 
065-077>080-086>088.                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FN02/32                                                                         
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
445 PM EST WED FEB 13 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM             
SRN SASK TO NRN CA. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING EAST THROUGH ERN            
MT. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE OF ARCTIC HIGH PRES OVER CNTRL CANADA                  
EXTENDED INTO NRN MN AND THE MS VALLEY WHILE DIFFUSE LOW PRES                   
DEVELOPING OVER THE WRN PLAINS. WEAK ACYC NNW FLOW ALONG WITH 850 MB            
TEMPS NEAR -16C CONTINUED TO SUPPORT LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS             
INTO THE KEWEENAW AND AREAS EAST OF MARQUETTE.                                  
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT)                                     
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE SNOW AMOUNTS TONIGHT INTO THU AND LES                    
POTENTIAL LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT.                                              
THE NAM CONTINUE TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH THE DEEPER/NRLY LOW TRACK               
AND HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS. THE FCST LEANS TOWARD THE CANADIAN REGIONAL             
GEM WHICH REFLECTS A COMPROMISE WEIGHTED TOWARD THE PREFERRED GFS.              
GIVEN THE VIGOROUS APPEARANCE OF THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE...EXPECT THE            
HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS DEPICTION MAY BE MORE REALISTIC.                       
A PERIOD OF IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONV             
AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WILL SUPPORT STRONG UPWARD MOTION LATE TONIGHT              
INTO THU MORNING. STEEPER LAPSE RATES WITH EPV VALUES NEAR ZERO                 
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR BAND(S) OF HEAVY SNOW TO DEVELOP.                    
GIVEN THE COLD AIRMASS OVER THE AREA A HIGHER SNOW/WATER RATIO                  
SNOWFALL WOULD BE EXPECTED. WHILE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED MODEL QPF            
AMOUNTS FROM 0.20 TO 0.40 FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG WITH SNOW/WATER             
RATIO OF AROUND 20/1...PER COBB BUFKIT ALGORITHM...WOULD GIVE                   
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 4 TO 8 INCH RANGE DURING THE PERIOD OF                  
HEAVIEST SNOW FROM 06Z-18Z. THIS IS ALSO IN LINE WITH  2-3 G/KG AVBL            
IN THE 285K-295K LAYER.                                                         
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF THU AFTERNOON CYCLONIC NNE FLOW WILL BACK            
TO N THEN NW BRINGING A TRANSITION FROM COMBINED SYSTEM/LES TO PURE             
LES DURING THE EVENING.                                                         
WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF ADDITIONAL OF LES EXPECTED...KEPT THE                    
HEADLINES GOING LONGER OF KIWD VCNTY AND N CNTRL UPPER MI. THE LES              
COMBINED WITH THE 3-6 INCHES OF SYSTEM SNOW OVER THE FAR W TIPPED               
THE BALANCE TOWARD A WARNING FOR 10 INCHES/24 HOURS EVEN THOUGH THE             
SNOW WITH THE SYSTEM MAY FALL SHORT OF WARNING CRITERIA. THE LES                
INTO MARQUETTE COUNTY MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY IF A NE FLOW LES BAND                
MOVES THROUGH...PER LCL HIGH RES WRF...AND WILL NEED TO EVALUATE                
POTENTIAL UPGRADE TO LES HEADLINES OR WARNING ALTHOUGH WARNING                  
AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...SNOW WILL TAPER              
OFF BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE REST OF UPPER MI.                                
$$                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
THE SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER             
EASTERN CANADA WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE LOW                
WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC WHILE A RIDGE MOVE INTO THE                      
MINNESOTA. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEM WILL BE                     
RESPONSIBLE FOR COLD AIR ADVECTION. THEREFORE...THE 850MB                       
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO -26C OVER THE WESTERN LAKE. THE            
FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE SHOULD PRODUCE LES IN THE FAVORED                          
AREAS...HOWEVER...THE COLD DRY AIR WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS AS THE              
FLAKES SHOULD BE RATHER FINE.                                                   
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK                
EAST ON FRIDAY. THE RIDGE WILL EDGE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER            
VALLEY. SURFACE WINDS WILL START TO TAPER OFF AND BACK WEST.                    
LAKE-850MB DELTA-T`S WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE LOW 20S OVER THE                
LAKE. WITH MORE STABLE CONDITIONS APPROACHING THE AREA AND WINDS                
BACKING WEST...THE LES SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE AREA.            
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AS THE RIDGE              
BLANKETS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.                                                 
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL RELOCATE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON                  
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE               
FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER LOW CENTER WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL            
CANADA INTO MANITOBA. AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH             
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. COLD               
AIR AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT COULD GENERATE A              
SOME SNOW OVER THE WEST END OF THE FORECAST AREA.                               
A SHORTWAVE WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE            
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE SHIFT INTO WESTERN U.P. SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE            
FROM WESTERN ONTARIO TO NORTHEAST LAKE SUPERIOR. THE LOW WILL ESCORT            
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. AHEAD OF            
THE LOW WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST DRAWING MOISTURE INTO THE            
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. WINDS WILL BACK NORTHWEST FOLLOWING               
THE FROPA. DEEP MOISTURE...INSTABILITY WITH THE FROPA...SHORTWAVE               
ENERGY...AND 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -5C ADDS UP TO FAIRLY GOOD               
CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE AREA.                                                     
THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP INTO THE CENTRAL U.P. ON SUNDAY.             
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO. THE SOUTHERN                
PORTION OF THE LOW WILL SPLIT OFF AND SHIFT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.               
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL FEED SNOWS OVER THE EAST PART             
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL KEEP SNOW GOING OVER THE AREA. A                
THERMAL TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR LEAVING            
THE LAKE-850MB DELTA-T AROUND 16C...ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LES MAINLY                
OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND EASTERN OF MUNISING. WEST OF THE                
KEWEENAW PENINSULA THE FETCH WILL BE SHORTER AND LIKELY TO LESS                 
APPRECIABLE LES.                                                                
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP INTO A LONGWAVE OVER THE UPPER                
GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DEEPEN THE THERMAL TROUGH            
OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING THE 850MB             
TEMPERATURE TO AROUND -21C OVER THE WESTERN LAKE BY MONDAY MORNING.             
MEANWHILE THE SURFACE LOW WILL SETTLE INTO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO CAUSING            
THE WINDS TO VEER A LITTLE NORTH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THUS LOOKING               
FOR AN INCREASE IN LES OVER THE THE WESTERN U.P. AND EAST OF                    
MARQUETTE. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA MONDAY                 
NIGHT AND SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. WINDS WILL BE              
OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST FEEDING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS.                       
HOWEVER...A LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE LAKE WILL MIX TO SURFACE CAUSING             
WINDS TO 25KNOTS WHICH EFFECTIVE SHORTENS THE FETCH TIME AND THE                
LES.                                                                            
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL EDGE EASTWARD ON TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.            
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY                 
NIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE THE WINDS TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND                   
DECREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR LES. MORE STABLE CONDITIONS SUPPORTS               
POTENTIAL FOR SUN.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
PERSISTENT NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT WILL KEEP IFR VSBY AND MVFR CIGS                 
GOING AT KCMX TIL WINDS WEAKEN AND SHIFT N AND NE LATE THIS                     
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHER MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT KSAW THIS               
AFTERNOON. SNOW WITH THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE              
IN BTWN 06Z-09Z WITH CIGS/VSBY LOWERING TO IFR CONDITIONS BY 11Z                
WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING.                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
EXPECT NORTHEAST GALES TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR                    
THURSDAY MORNING AS A TIGHT GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN A DEVELOPING              
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN WISCONSIN AND HIGH PRES OVER CNTRL CANADA.               
GALES MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO CNTRL AND EAST LAKE SUPERIOR IF              
THE LOW DEEPENS IN LINE WITH THE TRENDS FROM THE HIGHER RESOLUTION              
MODELS. N WINDS OF 20-30 KT BY SUNDAY MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE                   
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES OVER THE CNTRL AND EASTERN                 
LAKES.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MICHIGAN...SNOW ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR                    
MIZ006-007-085.                                                                 
     SNOW ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ001>004-084.           
     HEAVY SNOW WARNING FROM 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ TO 7 PM EST /6             
     PM CST/ THURSDAY FOR MIZ010>013.                                           
     HEAVY SNOW WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST                 
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR MIZ009.                                                 
     SNOW ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ005.                  
     HEAVY SNOW WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ014.              
LAKE SUPERIOR...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST              
THURSDAY FOR      LSZ265.                                                       
     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR            
     LSZ263-264.                                                                
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ263.                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM..JLB                                                        
LONG TERM...DLG                                                                 
AVIATION/MARINE...JLB                                                           
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
1251 PM EST WED FEB 13 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, CHANGING              
MIXED PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS. ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL               
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE                        
AFTERNOON. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT OUR REGION WILL BE ON                
FRIDAY, WHEN AN ARCTIC FRONT MOVES IN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON                 
AND EARLY EVENING.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
HAVE ALLOWED WINTER WX ADVISORIES TO EXPIRE OVR THE ENTIRE FA AT                
11AM. A FEW SITES ACROSS THE POCONOS HOVER AROUND FRZG BUT                      
CONTINUE TO WARM. ISOLD POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL RMN POSSIBLE              
FOR THE NEXT 2 HRS OR SO UNTIL TEMPS RISE ABV FREEZING. HAVE                    
RECEIVED REPORTS OF OVR ONE QUARTER INCH OF ICE OVR THE FAR SRN                 
COUNTIES WITH SOME OF THE WEBCAMS SHOWING ICING ON TREES. THE                   
WORST APPEARS TO BE OVR ALTHO ROADS WILL LIKELY HAVE ICE ON THEM                
INTO EARLY AFTN.                                                                
FURTHER NORTH...COOLER H8 TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE FINGER LAKES AT               
THIS TIME WITH KITH NOW SWITCHING OVR TO SNOW. RAIN/SNOW LINE                   
APPEARS TO RUN FROM UTICA-CORTLAND-ELMIRA AS OF 16Z WITH A FEW                  
FLURRIES MIXING IN AS FAR SOUTH AS BINGHAMTON. MOST OF THIS SNOW                
WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AS IT QUICKLY MVS SOUTH...WITH ACCUMS TOPPING              
OUT ARND AN INCH AT MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTN.                                   
TOUGH CALL NOW ACROSS FAR SRN ZONES FOR THIS AFTN AS A RAPIDLY                  
DEVELOPING SFC LOW IS HEADED UP THE DELMARVA PENINSULA ATTM. AN                 
ENHANCED AREA OF PCPN IS OCCURRING OVR THE ERN SEABOARD WITH                    
COOLING CLD TOPS ACROSS ERN PA AND ERN NY. SFC BOUNDARY EXTENDS                 
NORTH FROM THE SFC LOW THRU NJ AND INTO CENTRAL CONNECTICUT.                    
LATEST RUC GUIDANCE WUD INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE HEAVIER RAIN                  
WILL FALL JUST TO THE EAST OF CWA AS LOW RIDES UP THIS BOUNDARY.                
SULLIVAN/PIKE COUNTIES CONTINUE TO BE ON THE EDGE OF THE HEAVIEST               
RAINFALL. GUT FEELING IS THAT HEAVIER PCPN WILL STAY EAST AND FEEL              
IT PRUDENT TO HANDLE ANY LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH ADVISORIES AT                  
THIS POINT. RECENT CALLS TO SULLIVAN COUNTY INDICATE NO PROBLEMS                
WITH THE RAINFALL.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...                                  
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MINOR LAKE EFFECT OVER THE NORTH                     
COUNTRY ON THE BACKSIDE OF CURRENT STORM, THE WEATHER WILL BE                   
QUIET UNTIL FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY, AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL GATHER STEAM                
TO THE WEST WHILE WARMER AIR FLOWS INTO NY AND PA. BY AFTERNOON                 
TEMPS WILL REACH NEAR 40 OVER THE WILKES-BARRE SCRANTON AREA, THE               
UPPER 30S OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY, AND THE MID 30S IN THE                  
FINGER LAKES. ANY PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION SHOULD                
FALL AS RAIN.                                                                   
THE COLD FRONT WILL RIP THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.               
WHILE THE LATEST GFS DOES NOT SUGGEST A WIN DEX EVENT, WITH MUCH OF             
THE ENERGY BACK BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT, I AM GROWING MORE                      
CONCERNED OF A "FLASH FREEZE" SCENARIO. WET ROADS WILL FREEZE VERY              
QUICKLY WITH THE RAPID TEMPERATURE CHANGEOVER. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL               
NEED TO CONSIDER THIS POSSIBILITY, AND WE WILL MAKE A BRIEF                     
MENTION IN THE HWO AS A HEADS UP.                                               
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                        
PD STARTS OFF QUITE CHILLY AS LRG HIPRES OVR THE OH VLY NOSES INTO              
THE REGION. WITH VERY DRY AIR AND H8 TEMPOS NEAR -20C...TEMPS WILL              
BE WELL BLO NRML. SOME LGT SNOW PSBL SUN AS A LOW RACES NORTH OF                
THE GREAT LAKES AND DVLPS WAA OVER THE REGION. MAIN PLAYER FOR                  
THE PD ARRIVES NEAR THE END AS THE OPERATIONAL GFS NOW SHOWS A                  
DECENT CSTL LOW FNLY MVG EAST OF THE AREA. THIS TRACK WLD GIVE US               
A RARE ALL SNOW EVENT FOR MON INTO TUE. IN FACT...EVERY ONE OF THE              
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CRNTLY KEEP THE LOW TO THE EAST.                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                     
COLDER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS CNY AND               
NEPA THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO CHANGE ANY MIXED RAIN/FZRA                 
AND SNOW OVER TO ALL SNOW PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE BY 20Z. SNOW WILL              
BE MDT-HVY AT TIMES FOR BRIEF PERIODS IN A BANDED PRECIP                        
STRUCTURE. WDSPRD IFR CIGS/VSBYS AND POCKETS OF LIFR WILL BE                    
REPLACED BY IMPROVMENTS TO LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR THIS                   
EVENING AS COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD NEW                      
ENGLAND. DRIER AIR AND CLEARING NOTED ON SATELLITE OVER THE                     
GTLKS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW LLVL MOISTURE                      
TRAPPING BENEATH INVERSION. ALWAYS BEST TO PLAY THE CLOUD CARD                  
HERE...SO WILL GRDLY TRANSITION TO VFR-MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT AND               
THURSDAY MORNING OVER UPSTATE NY TERMINALS...WITH SCATTERED                     
CLOUDS AT AVP. WINDS NORTHWEST GENERALLY 8-12 KTS.                              
FOR THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...                                    
VFR THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY MVFR/IFR IN RAIN AND SNOW              
SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. LINGERING MVFR IN LAKE                  
SNOW SHOWERS FOR SYR-RME ON SATURDAY...OTHERWISE VFR UNDER HIGH                 
PRESSURE. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY                  
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM MIDWEST THROUGH NY              
STATE. MIXED PRECIP AGAIN LIKELY WITH MVFR/IFR.                                 
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
PA...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...JAB                                                                  
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
1041 AM CST WED FEB 13 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...SMALL CHANGES TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE                
WAS STILL HANGING OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WHILE THE NEXT STORM                
SYSTEM WAS DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE ROCKIES. GIVEN THE                    
PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER STORM AND JET STRUCTURE...EXPECT GREATEST                
PRESSURE FALLS IN FAR NORTHERN COLORADO TODAY AS OPPOSED SOUTHEAST              
COLORADO...WHICH OCCURS ON SOME OF OUR WINDIER DAYS. THUS...WINDS               
MAY BE SLOW TO INCREASE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON DURING PEAK MIXING.                
LIGHT WINDS AND A COLD START TO THE DAY WILL ALSO MAKE IT                       
DIFFICULT TO REACH MID AND UPPER 60S. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES                 
ONE OR TWO DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD...BUT LOWERED TEMPERATURES A                
LITTLE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BASED ON TRENDS IN              
THE RUC...NAM...AND OBSERVATIONS. DESPITE THE COOLER MAX                        
TEMPS...HUMIDITY STILL EXPECTED TO MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA WHERE                 
THE WARNING IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. WILL NOT MAKE CHANGES TO THE                
WARNING...ALTHOUGH EXPECTING CRITERIA TO BE MET ONLY FOR 2 TO 3                 
HOURS LATE IN THE DAY.                                                          
&&                                                                              
BURKE                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 AM CST WED FEB 13 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
MANY ISSUES TO CONSIDER THIS MORNING...SO WE APOLOGIZE FOR THE LATE             
ISSUANCE. FOR TODAY AND EVEN FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY...THE MAIN ISSUE              
IS FIRE WEATHER. EXPECT THE WIND TO INCREASE STEADILY THROUGHOUT THE            
DAY TODAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA CONTINUES TO              
BREAK DOWN WITH THE STRENGTHENING AND EXPANDING LEE ROCKIES SURFACE             
TROUGH TO OUR WEST. CURRENT MODEL DATA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE                  
STRONGEST WINDS TODAY AND OVERALL THE MOST CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOR              
TODAY JUST GRAZING OUR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS                 
COUNTIES. EXPECT WINDS THAT ARE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A RED FLAG                
WARNING TO EVENTUALLY WORK THEIR WAY FARTHER EAST BUT NOT UNTIL VERY            
LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT. THUS WE FEEL MOST CONFIDENT ABOUT THE RED                
FLAG WARNING THAT IS ALREADY IN AFFECT BEING SUPPORTED                          
METEOROLOGICALLY ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA             
WITH LESS CONFIDENCE AS FAR EAST AS LAWTON AND WICHITA FALLS. WE                
COULD CANCEL A PORTION OF THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY BUT FEEL               
THE MESSAGE WOULD BE CONFUSING AS FIRES SEEM TO DEVELOP FREQUENTLY              
AROUND LAWTON AND THE WICHITA MOUNTAINS ANYWAY.                                 
EXPECT THE WELL-ADVERTISED COLD FRONT TO REACH NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA               
EARLY THURSDAY AND PERHAPS A LITTLE SOONER GIVEN THAT COLD FRONTS OF            
SIMILAR CHARACTER BEHAVE MORE LIKE A DENSITY CURRENT AND LESS LIKE A            
TRADITIONAL AND WEAKER COLD FRONT. THUS WE PREFER THE FASTER MOTION             
OF THE GFS/ECMWF...BUT LIKE THE SPATIAL/TEMPORAL RESOLUTION AND                 
TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS OF THE NAM. OUR GRIDS THROUGH THURSDAY REFLECT            
THESE PREFERENCES. STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND THE ASSOCIATED VERY             
WARM/DRY AIR SHOULD INFLUENCE THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE                    
FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. FRONTAL SPEED WILL BE A KEY FACTOR            
IN DETERMINING JUST HOW MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE INFLUENCED.                    
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES SUGGESTS A LACK OF CONFIDENCE             
IN FRONTAL SPEED...AND SO IT WAS DIFFICULT TO ARRIVE AT MUCH                    
CONSENSUS REGARDING THE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY. FEEL              
THAT EVEN WITH A FASTER FRONTAL SPEED...SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE            
FORECAST AREA INCLUDING WICHITA FALLS AND DUNCAN MAY EXPERIENCE                 
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR SEVERAL HOURS INCLUDING A                  
SUBSTANTIAL WIND SHIFT AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...AND SO A FIRE              
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS.                                  
REGARDING WINTRY WEATHER...GIVEN THE RANGE OF UNCERTAINTY WE HAVE               
USED MORE OF A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE EXPECTED SENSIBLE WEATHER                
CONDITIONS BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT NEAR AND ABOVE THE SOUTHWARD                
ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND ALSO LATER IN THE WEEKEND WHEN AN UPPER LOW            
IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA. THIS APPROACH MOSTLY NEGATES THE USE            
OF THE NAM SINCE IT IS MOSTLY AN OUTLIER. A COUPLE MEMBERS OF THE               
GFS ENSEMBLE SUITE PREFER A NAM-LIKE SOLUTION AS WELL SO ITS                    
SOLUTION CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY DISCARDED. NEVERTHELESS...THERE IS               
MODEL CONSENSUS THAT THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER                 
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST LATE THURSDAY AS IT ENCOUNTERS                
WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT THERE TO BE A RIBBON OF HIGHER LEVEL            
MOISTURE THAT INTERSECTS THE COLD FRONT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/                     
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA BEFORE GRADUALLY BECOMING INCORPORATED AND                
LIFTED WITHIN THE FRONTAL BAND. AVERAGE MODEL QPF FORECASTS THROUGH             
12Z FRIDAY ARE LESS 0.15 INCHES. WE EXPECT SOME OF THIS AMOUNT TO               
FALL IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET BUT THE PRECIPITATION            
MAY BEGIN AS LIQUID BEFORE THE SUB-FREEZING AIR UNDERCUTS THE                   
PRECIPITATION. DIFFICULT TO SAY WHAT PERCENTAGE MAY BE ICE BY FRIDAY            
MORNING. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA ALSO                 
SUGGEST WEAK INSTABILITY BECOMING AVAILABLE SO WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A            
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGHER ICE ACCUMULATION RATES NOT OUT OF THE             
QUESTION. NO WATCHES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME...GIVEN THE EXPECTED              
AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...WE WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT SHORTLY.           
A POINT OF EMPHASIS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WHICH IS ONE OF THE              
REASONS FOR A LATE ISSUANCE THIS MORNING...WAS TO BETTER DISTINGUISH            
THE PRECIPITATION EVENT THAT WE EXPECT THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY                 
FRIDAY FROM A SECONDARY PRECIPITATION EVENT THAT WE EXPECT SATURDAY             
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE DETAILS ARE STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER             
THE MODEL CONSENSUS FROM THE 00Z CYCLE WHICH WAS ALSO THE CASE 24               
HRS AGO...IS THAT THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT AND ITS                    
SUBSEQUENT INITIAL INTERCEPTION OF HIGHER MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN               
ABOUT 12-18 HRS OF PRECIPITATION...STARTING AS RAIN BUT THEN                    
CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MOSTLY WELL SOUTH OF INTERSTATE             
44 BEFORE ENDING AROUND MIDDAY FRIDAY. A SMALLER BUT WEAKER ZONE OF             
LIFT MAY ALSO PRODUCE A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST              
OKLAHOMA WHERE AN ASSOCIATED DEFORMATION ZONE/SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS               
DEPICTED BY THE MODELS.                                                         
MIDDAY FRIDAY THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY MAY BE QUIET AS THE MAJORITY              
OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SLOW APPROACH OF AN UPPER LOW                  
BEFORE IT EJECTS ACROSS TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A FEW OF THE           
MODELS...INCLUDING THE NAM/OPERATIONAL GFS/AND 2 OR 3 GFS ENSEMBLE              
MEMBERS SUGGEST THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS ACROSS TEXAS ABOUT 24 HRS              
FASTER...SO THIS POSSIBILITY NEEDS TO BE CONSIDERED. THUS...OUR                 
FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT OF A COMPROMISE OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS BEGINNING             
FRIDAY NIGHT. SO DESPITE THERE BEING SOME POSSIBILITY OF IT BECOMING            
COMPLETELY DRY FOR 24 HRS OR SO...WE CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN LOW POPS              
OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA THROUGHOUT JUST IN CASE.                    
OUR APPROACH ALSO RESULTED IN RAISING POPS SLIGHTLY FOR SATURDAY                
NIGHT AND SUNDAY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 44 WITH A MIXTURE OF              
RAIN AND SNOW REMAINING THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPES. THIS TREND             
IN RAISING POPS FOR THESE TIME PERIODS IS ALSO AN INDICATION OF                 
POTENTIALLY HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS...AS ALL OF THE MODELS SUGGEST A                 
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH FORMING OVER EAST TEXAS AND NOSING ITS WAY              
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS PATTERN COULD SUPPORT HEAVY                        
PRECIPITATION WITH THE MODEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES TOO CLOSE TO THE            
FREEZING LINE TO SAY IF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL RAIN OR ALL               
SNOW.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  58  44  59  21 /   0   0   0  30                              
HOBART OK         64  42  58  22 /   0   0   0  10                              
WICHITA FALLS TX  66  47  71  26 /   0   0   0  40                              
GAGE OK           62  34  43  17 /   0  10  10  30                              
PONCA CITY OK     56  38  51  20 /   0   0   0  10                              
DURANT OK         57  44  65  28 /   0   0   0  50                              
&&                                                                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-009-010-           
     014>016-021-022-033>038-044.                                               
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY                  
     EVENING FOR OKZ039-044-045.                                                
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.               
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY                  
     EVENING FOR TXZ086>090.                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JAMES                                                                           
</pre> ok