FXUS04 KWBC 070648
QPFPFD
 
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
247 AM EDT WED JUL 07 2004
 
PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 07/1200 UTC THRU JUL 08/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
 
          


...PRELIM DAY 1...

...FL/GULF COAST...
SEA BREEZE CVRG AND OUTFLOW BNDRY INTERACTIONS WILL PROVIDE
MAIN TRIGGERS OF CNVTN THIS REGION.  MSTR REMAINS HIEST OVER
THE CNTL PART OF THE FL PENINSULA/PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT E
GULF COAST AREAS..WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FCST TO REMAIN OVER
EXTREME SRN FL. PARTS OF THE ERN GULF COAST STATES WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK RT ENTRANCE JET PUSHING SLOWLY
EWD THRU THE REGION.  THIS MAY HELP TO ENHANCE RAINS ACRS
PARTS OF SRN AL/GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTN. 

...ERN U.S...
PCPN SHLD ONCE AGAIN FOCUSED ALNG THE FNTL BNDRY PUSHING EWD
ACRS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLC REGION AND NE.  BEST MID
LEVEL FORCING SHOULD COME LATER THIS AFTN PARTS OF WRN PA NWD
AS HEIGHT FALLS AND ASSOCD VORT MAX DRIVE EWD ACRS THE SRN GT
LAKES.  FARTHER SOUTH..APPARENT VORT MAX OVER WRN KY COULD
HELP REFIRE STG STORMS ACRS PARTS OF THE NRN MID ATLC THIS
AFTN AND EVENING AS IT MOVES ENEWD.  NOT QUITE SURE MODELS
ARE HANDLING THIS FEATURE VERY WELL AS IT HAS SHOWN A FAIRLY
GOOD ROTATION IN THE RADAR SIGNATURE WHICH APPEARS TO
INDICATE VORT MAY BE SLIGHTLY STGR THAN INDICATED.  IN ANY
EVENT...GOOD MSTR SURGE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NEWD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH THE GFS SHOWING A GREATER THAN 2" PWS WORKING INTO
THE MID ATLC WITH GREATER THAN 1.75" AMOUNTS EXTENDING NWD
INTO NY.  THESE VALUES ARE HIER THAN THE ETA..AND SEEM
REASONABLE AS THE ETA TYPICALLY HAS SHOWN A DRY BIAS ACRS THE
EAST.  OVERALL..WENT HIER THAN BOTH MODELS WITH .50 TO 1 INCH
COVERAGE FROM MD NWD BASED ON THE ABOVE. 

...NRN PLAINS...
MODELS SHOW REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING OF UPR TROF
MOVING ACRS SRN CANADA AND ASSOCD COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
PUSHING ACRS THE PAC NW INTO THE NRN HI PLAINS LATER THIS
AFTN.  LOW LEVEL JET IS FCST TO INCREASE TO 30 KTS OR SO WED
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH PWS INCREASING TO OVER 1.25
INCHES.  THE ASSOCD STG WARM ADVECTION SHOULD HELP SUPPORT
EXPANDING SHWRS/TSTMS ACRS ERN MT INTO WRN ND/NW SD WED
NIGHT.  GIVEN SIMILARITY OF ETA/GFS...USED A MODEL BLEND.

...CENTRAL U.S...
SCTD SHWRS AND TSTMS EXPECTED ALONG WEAK WARM FRONT DRAPED
ACRS ERN KS INTO NRN AR.  WHILE DECENT THICKNESS DIFFLUENCE
PATRN IS EVIDENT ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS AFTN AND EVENING
TO SUPPORT CNVTN...THERE IS NO WELL DEFINED S/WV IN THE NW
FLOW TO SUGGEST STG WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED ACTIVITY.  BASICALLY
FOLLOWED A MODEL BLEND GIVEN LACK OF MODEL AGREEMENT HERE.

...NAME AREA...
WEAK UPR RIDGE IS FCST TO LIFT SLIGHTLY NWD THIS PD...THOUGH
THE ONLY REAL CHANGE FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS IS TO ALLOW
SOMEWHAT HIER PWS TO WORK NWD ALONG THE WESTERN MEXICAN COAST
WEST OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL.  THIS MAY ALLOW TSTM
ACTIVITY THAT DVLPS OVER MTNS TO BUILD WWD TOWARD COASTAL
AREAS ALONG THE CNTL MEX WEST COAST LATER TODAY/TNGT. 
OTHERWISE IN THE SHORT TERM..NO SIGNS OF MONSOON PATRN
SETTING UP OVER THE TIER 1 AREA.

SULLIVAN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



                                   
 
24HR QP VT 08/12Z
 0.01 224067 229069 233071 242076 249082 254085 259087 277087 
      282095 285095 287092 290087 293084 295079 291075 286072 
      277069 271066 268062 265058 262056 255054 252051 244045 
      240041 237037 237030 237023 237016 240012 250007 254004 
      256000 257996 256993 252991 246989 241988 233987 
 0.01 558109 561093 561080 558067 556061 555057 552051 548047 
      545044 544039 543032 540023 537018 534014 531012 516001 
      507996 500993 490990 479987 473987 466988 462989 459993 
      456995 454998 451002 447010 442018 439028 435031 432033 
      422037 411038 400038 391039 387041 385045 401052 407062 
      408068 409076 410087 409099 396112 392122 389131 382156 
      379169 376180 377185 383186 388182 393175 397166 397154 
      402143 406134 408128 411124 424112 425105 424099 423088 
      428076 433067 436064 439064 442068 443075 443084 443101 
      441115 443121 448125 457125 458132 464131 469130 471133 
      471138 468144 465149 468153 471159 472165 475170 479172 
      484174 488178 492184 495190 497195 498199 496199 493199 
      490201 486201 481204 475206 471210 465218 463221 465223 
      470225 476225 479225 489229 485250 489265 494277 501286 
      511295 535220 534215 537211 537201 536196 536186 535181 
      534176 534170 537166 542162 545158 548153 547148 544142 
      542137 540132 542128 545126 551123 554120 557117 
 0.01 511777 507759 503745 499731 495722 488711 483704 473696 
      457697 449699 441701 422708 414711 402718 391723 385725 
      377727 370731 360737 355743 351748 348755 348759 350763 
      348767 345770 339778 334786 329792 324798 317804 310808 
      296806 283803 270798 264797 258797 251798 247801 247805 
      248812 252817 257823 269829 276831 285830 290829 294830 
      296838 295852 297864 298871 297879 295885 289905 290913 
      291926 291933 291939 293941 297949 299954 300960 305965 
      303973 298985 292999 295007 295011 299014 307009 313003 
      317999 319996 320990 319977 316972 313968 310965 309963 
      311954 313944 315935 318927 321923 324921 329920 332929 
      334935 338942 342949 345954 347956 355960 360968 366974 
      372982 378988 383992 389994 393990 395987 396981 404992 
      416002 420007 427012 430013 433014 435012 430000 429996 
      427993 424987 420983 414977 412975 407973 402974 400978 
      397978 397971 398967 398963 396951 392940 389933 385926 
      380921 377917 374916 371914 366915 364914 362911 362907 
      363897 369879 373871 379863 384856 390850 397842 404845 
      413845 417844 420841 425836 433829 439826 445830 451833 
      446840 438848 434857 439860 450859 454861 455867 456879 
      455887 456896 458902 461906 465909 466913 470921 475930 
      477933 480932 486928 490926 492921 497901 500889 500872 
      501857 502845 505834 508823 510812 511802 511777 
 0.01 514199 514195 514194 511194 508197 507197 507199 510200 
      513200 514199 
 0.01 493130 492126 490119 487112 486108 484103 482101 479101 
      473102 473104 474111 478115 481120 483125 485130 489133 
      492134 493130 
 0.01 414948 413941 412933 411929 409922 407915 405911 402905 
      401905 397910 396914 397921 399929 400932 403939 404943 
      408949 411950 414948 
 0.01 375050 372045 369040 369036 368032 365029 360030 354033 
      346036 337036 329034 321035 314039 313043 316048 318049 
      323049 327051 327058 333059 339058 342061 344065 347067 
      352066 356068 359071 362071 363068 363061 375051 375050 
 0.25 226062 229064 234065 242068 248072 250071 255072 258074 
      264074 269074 272075 276075 272073 266068 261063 253058 
      245054 239051 234043 231037 228034 
 0.25 544083 541072 538064 529043 525038 519033 511030 511032 
      511040 512043 511048 503045 496041 488039 483038 482034 
      481030 482026 489022 493019 493016 489010 483004 476002 
      470001 466004 462009 458018 453037 451042 451048 451054 
      453060 456062 461060 466055 471050 475048 479047 485056 
      491061 497068 500073 503084 505092 505100 505110 508110 
      511107 523096 528096 530097 534102 541098 543083 544083 
 0.25 484760 482746 478735 473726 469721 465718 462717 454716 
      448717 440724 436724 433722 426721 421723 413726 406729 
      401733 399735 391742 387746 381753 376758 368764 365768 
      358776 354783 355788 357789 362790 364791 368790 376787 
      381786 388786 390789 389793 385798 380799 372804 368809 
      359821 351832 347838 345846 340851 339859 338865 339870 
      342874 344871 347866 349860 352853 356847 361839 365832 
      368825 374820 385814 389814 393814 401811 409809 413808 
      416812 416819 420820 425816 431809 436806 443804 449804 
      452805 458809 462815 467824 470833 473846 474857 474862 
      474870 473874 474879 479879 483872 488865 491856 493837 
      493826 492813 488786 486772 484760 
 0.25 502228 504225 502219 500214 499214 497211 494212 491215 
      489215 490218 492221 493221 495223 498226 500228 501229 
      502228 
 0.25 386947 385943 384940 383940 381937 380936 377935 374937 
      374938 375942 377945 378946 381948 382949 385949 386947 
 0.25 379966 377961 375956 373953 370946 368943 366939 364937 
      363934 361934 360939 361944 362948 365955 367958 369961 
      372964 375968 379966 
 0.25 331872 330862 326853 323841 319835 314830 310827 306828 
      304830 303836 304847 306863 307879 307885 309892 309898 
      310904 312905 321896 324891 327884 331872 
 0.25 291815 289812 285811 281809 275806 270804 264801 259802 
      255807 257811 260814 264816 270818 276819 284817 290817 
      291815 
 0.50 225054 226057 229060 231057 233056 236057 241060 247063 
      252066 256069 259070 262069 258064 253060 247058 244059 
      241057 236054 233048 231043 227037 
 0.50 525077 525072 523070 522068 520066 517064 516063 514062 
      511062 508061 506061 503063 505068 506069 509071 509072 
      511076 512077 514080 517082 520079 523079 525077 
 0.50 475771 472763 466753 461745 455739 450736 444735 436736 
      431738 428738 417731 402742 394748 389753 382760 381764 
      381769 383775 386777 392777 409772 417767 424766 431769 
      434771 437775 434780 431783 429786 425786 414780 407778 
      403780 402783 403789 406792 412793 421793 428794 435792 
      443793 447796 454799 462801 466796 466790 466784 469781 
      472782 474778 475774 475771 
 0.50 483011 475008 469007 464013 461019 458028 456037 455041 
      454047 455052 459054 465048 469042 473036 474032 473027 
      472025 474020 479016 483011 
 0.50 317863 317859 317856 317852 316849 313847 310849 310851 
      310855 310858 310859 310862 311865 312868 312869 315869 
      317866 317864 317863 
 0.50 275812 273809 272808 271807 269806 267805 265805 263805 
      261808 263810 265811 266812 268813 270814 271814 274813 
      275812 
 1.00 462043 462038 461036 461039 461043 462044 462043 
 1.00 406759 404758 401759 399761 396762 394765 392767 394767 
      397766 400764 403763 405761 406759  
 
$$