AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
346 AM EST WED JAN 2 2008                                                       
...COLDEST TEMPERATURES SINCE JANUARY 2003...                                   
.SHORT TERM...EXITING AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS NOW                       
CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE OF MAINE...WITH THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY                
EXTENDING THROUGH THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND SOUTH OF FLORIDA.                     
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS IS BEGINNING ITS                 
SHIFT SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SIGNIFICANT POLAR JET              
IS DIGGING INTO THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST...                    
AMPLIFYING THE TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. THIS                   
UNUSUALLY DRY AND COLD AIR HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN               
UNITED STATES...WITH SIGNIFICANT DRYING SHOWN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY              
AND IN CURRENT OBSERVATIONS WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO THE                   
TEENS. WINDS BRIEFLY DECREASED TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE RUC13 HAS                 
DONE AN EXCELLENT JOB IN PICKING UP THE SLIGHT TIGHTENING IN THE                
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST. THIS TIGHTENED GRADIENT              
HAS INCREASED WINDS IN THESE AREAS THIS MORNING...WITH SUSTAINED                
WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH GUSTING TO 25.                                      
FOR TODAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE STRONGEST TODAY BETWEEN THE               
AMPLIFYING TROUGH AND AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THIS WILL              
LEAD TO SUSTAINED NORTHWESTERLY WINDS NEAR 20 MPH WITH FREQUENT                 
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY 20 DEGREES                 
BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS...AND WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN                 
THE 30S FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT DRYING AND WINDS                 
WILL ALSO CREATE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY...IN                   
ADDITION TO GALES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.                                      
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...850 MB PLOT TELLS THE                
STORY WITH VERY DRY CONTINENTAL NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND                 
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION. THURSDAY MORNING MINIMUM                        
TEMPERATURES WILL COME CLOSE TO RECORDS...IF NOT BREAKING THEM.                 
HAVE UPGRADED THE HARD FREEZE WATCH TO A WARNING...AS MOST                      
LOCATIONS WILL BE BELOW CRITERIA FOR SEVERAL HOURS. BY EARLY                    
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SWITCH TO THE                   
NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS                 
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH COOL 850 MB                        
TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED FLURRIES ALONG THE COAST OF ST               
JOHNS AND FLAGLER COUNTIES...WHERE MOISTURE AND SURFACE                         
CONVERGENCE WILL BE GREATEST. BY AFTERNOON QUICKLY WARMING                      
TEMPERATURES WILL MELT MOST FREEZING PRECIP THAT FALLS...MAKING                 
SPRINKLES THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE. SINCE MOISTURE WILL BE SO                
LIMITED...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM THESE                      
FLURRIES. ALL HAZARDS ISSUED BY PREVIOUS SHIFT APPEAR TO BE ON                  
TRACK...SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.                        
.LONG TERM...BY FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE MID                      
ATLANTIC STATES...LEADING TO A PREDOMINANT ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL              
ALLOW TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE TO REBOUND ACROSS THE AREA...WITH               
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT INCREASES ALONG THE COAST. A DEVELOPING                    
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WILL WEAKEN AND                 
SHIFT THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS...FINALLY              
WEAKENING WINDS AND ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH NORMAL VALUES.               
AS THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE AREA...A SWITCH TO A                   
SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO WARM AIR ADVECTION                 
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS                     
EXPECTED UNTIL 14Z WHEN NW WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS                
TO 30 KT. LLWS IS ANTICIPATED AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING.                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE. BUOYS HAVE BEEN REPORTING                     
FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE AND SUSTAINED WINDS 25-30 KT. GALES                
WILL DIMINISH OVER NEAR SHORE WATERS LATE THIS AFTN AND OFFSHORE                
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTH THURSDAY WITH SCA REPLACING                   
GALE WRNG THEN WINDS BECOME ONSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.                        
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...NO CHANGES TO RED FLAG HEADLINES ATTM. EXTREMELY                
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THURS. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE               
SINGLE DIGITS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA THIS AFTN. ONSHORE               
FLOW BEGINS MOISTENING UP THE ERN PORTION FRIDAY AND BY THE                     
WEEKEND...MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.                 
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
AMG  42  19  48  22 /   0  10  10   0                                           
SSI  43  26  46  31 /   0  10  10   0                                           
JAX  44  20  47  27 /   0  10  10   0                                           
SGJ  45  26  48  37 /   0  20  20  10                                           
GNV  44  18  50  26 /   0  10  10   0                                           
OCF  45  19  50  29 /   0  10  10   0                                           
&&                                                                              
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY           
     FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-                    
     GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-                 
     UNION.                                                                     
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS                
     EVENING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-GILCHRIST-                
     HAMILTON-MARION-PUTNAM-SUWANNEE-UNION.                                     
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DUVAL-                 
     FLAGLER-NASSAU-ST JOHNS.                                                   
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS                  
     EVENING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-                    
     FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-                  
     SUWANNEE-UNION.                                                            
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ALACHUA-              
     BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-                      
     HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.                     
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY                  
     AFTERNOON FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-                  
     GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-SUWANNEE-UNION.                    
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ALACHUA-BRADFORD-           
     CLAY-DUVAL-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-UNION.                                     
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ST JOHNS.                   
     HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR BAKER-                 
     COLUMBIA-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-SUWANNEE.                                      
GA...HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR APPLING-              
     ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COFFEE-ECHOLS-JEFF                 
     DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.                                                   
     HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY           
     FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL                
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND                    
     GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.                                        
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS                
     EVENING FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-               
     COFFEE-ECHOLS-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.                                
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-          
     BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COFFEE-ECHOLS-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-                  
     WARE-WAYNE.                                                                
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR            
     APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL                    
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND                    
     GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.                                        
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR APPLING-               
     ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-                    
     COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF                
     DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.                                                   
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL                
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN.                           
AM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA            
     TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA                  
     BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST                        
     AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.                     
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA             
     TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST                    
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT                
     20 NM.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HURLBUT/TRABERT                                                                 
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA                                      
842 PM EST TUE JAN 1 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
BEGINNING TO GET REPORTS OF SNOW FLURRIES IN ROME AND CANTON AREAS.             
LATEST SATL LOOP SHOWS THIS THREAT WILL LIKELY SWING ACROSS MOST OF             
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF GA...BUT AREA TEMPS WILL PREVENT ACCUMULATIONS            
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...AS TEMPS LOWER...SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS               
COULD BEGIN TO OCCUR LATER TONIGHT...IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.                  
HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO BRING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS DOWN TO               
HARALSON...PAULDING...COBB... EXTREME NORTH FULTON... FORSYTH...                
HALL...AND BANKS COUNTIES THRU THIS EVENING...THEN THE SNOW CHANCES             
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THRU EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER            
IMPULSE SWINGS EAST. OTHERWISE...REST OF FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AT             
THIS TIME. /39                                                                  
--------------------------PREVIOUS DISCUSSION--------------------               
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...                                 
STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA               
WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN STRONG WINDS AND A COLDER AIR MASS                    
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HENCE...FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH                
THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT OF HIGH WINDS...ADVISORY TO REMAIN IN                   
EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND HARD FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT FOR                  
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S OVER THE                   
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.                                                             
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                          
HIGH SLIDES EAST OF CWA FRIDAY ALLOWING A MODERATION IN HE AIR                  
MASS...HENCE A RISE IN TEMPERATURES. PREVIOUS GFS RUN (06Z) HAD                 
PRECIPITATION IN FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. 12Z RUN WAS                  
MUCH WEAKER...BUT SOME MOISTURE STILL SHOWN. MUCH UNCERTAINTY                   
ABOUT PERIOD...SO LEFT SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN IN FORECAST.                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN PART              
OF THE COUNTRY CONTINUED TO SAG FARTHER SOUTH TUESDAY                           
AFTERNOON...AND COVERED THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.             
WITH CLOUD BASES AT OR ABOVE 5 THOUSAND FEET...THE MOUNTAINS WILL               
PROBABLY NOT HOLD THE CLOUDS BACK AS UPPER SHORT WAVE SWINGS THROUGH            
THE BASE OF THE TROF TONIGHT. LOOKING FOR SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH                 
BASES BETWEEN 4 AND 6 THOUSAND FEET...WITH A PERIOD OF BROKEN CLOUDS            
IN THE KATL AND KAHN AREAS. BOTH THE RUC AND NAM ARE BEING USED TO              
HELP WITH TIMING. SCATTERED CLOUDS MAY LINGER AFTER THE MAIN UPPER              
SHORT WAVE PASSES. WIND SPEEDS MAY EBB AT TIMES OVERNIGHT...BUT                 
GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG AND BECOMES EVEN STRONGER TOWARD DAYBREAK.              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
ATHENS          25  41  18  44  19 /   0   5   0   5   5                        
ATLANTA         22  37  19  41  22 /   0   0   0   5   5                        
BLAIRSVILLE     21  31  15  41  13 /  30  10   0   5   5                        
CARTERSVILLE    23  35  15  41  16 /   0   0   0   5   5                        
COLUMBUS        27  42  21  49  22 /   0   0   0   5   5                        
GAINESVILLE     23  35  17  42  19 /   0   5   0   5   5                        
MACON           28  44  20  49  20 /   0   0   0   5   5                        
ROME            22  38  15  45  14 /   0   0   0   5   5                        
PEACHTREE CITY  21  36  14  44   9 /   0   0   0   5   5                        
VIDALIA         25  43  17  49  19 /   0   0   0   5   5                        
&&                                                                              
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:                 
BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...BUTTS...CARROLL...                   
CATOOSA...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...CLARKE...                      
CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...                  
DOUGLAS...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...                        
GLASCOCK...GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...                       
HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...JACKSON...JASPER...               
JONES...LAMAR...LUMPKIN...MACON...MADISON...MARION...                           
MERIWETHER...MONROE...MORGAN...MURRAY...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...                    
NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH...                        
PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...SOUTH                      
FULTON...SPALDING...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TOWNS...                     
TROUP...TWIGGS...UNION...UPSON...WALKER...WALTON...WARREN...                    
WASHINGTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILKES...WILKINSON.                            
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY                
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CATOOSA...DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER...                  
LUMPKIN...MURRAY...PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION...WHITE...WHITFIELD.                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
37/15                                                                           
</pre> ga                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION                                 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA                                      
540 PM EST TUE JAN 1 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...                                 
STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA               
WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN STRONG WINDS AND A COLDER AIR MASS                    
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HENCE...FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH                
THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT OF HIGH WINDS...ADVISORY TO REMAIN IN                   
EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND HARD FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT FOR                  
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S OVER THE                   
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.                                                             
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                          
HIGH SLIDES EAST OF CWA FRIDAY ALLOWING A MODERATION IN HE AIR                  
MASS...HENCE A RISE IN TEMPERATURES. PREVIOUS GFS RUN (06Z) HAD                 
PRECIPITATION IN FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. 12Z RUN WAS                  
MUCH WEAKER...BUT SOME MOISTURE STILL SHOWN. MUCH UNCERTAINTY                   
ABOUT PERIOD...SO LEFT SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN IN FORECAST.                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN PART              
OF THE COUNTRY CONTINUED TO SAG FARTHER SOUTH TUESDAY                           
AFTERNOON...AND COVERED THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.             
WITH CLOUD BASES AT OR ABOVE 5 THOUSAND FEET...THE MOUNTAINS WILL               
PROBABLY NOT HOLD THE CLOUDS BACK AS UPPER SHORT WAVE SWINGS THROUGH            
THE BASE OF THE TROF TONIGHT. LOOKING FOR SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH                 
BASES BETWEEN 4 AND 6 THOUSAND FEET...WITH A PERIOD OF BROKEN CLOUDS            
IN THE KATL AND KAHN AREAS. BOTH THE RUC AND NAM ARE BEING USED TO              
HELP WITH TIMING. SCATTERED CLOUDS MAY LINGER AFTER THE MAIN UPPER              
SHORT WAVE PASSES. WIND SPEEDS MAY EBB AT TIMES OVERNIGHT...BUT                 
GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG AND BECOMES EVEN STRONGER TOWARD DAYBREAK.              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
ATHENS          25  41  18  44  19 /   0   5   0   5   5                        
ATLANTA         22  37  19  41  22 /   0   0   0   5   5                        
BLAIRSVILLE     21  31  15  41  13 /  30  10   0   5   5                        
CARTERSVILLE    23  35  15  41  16 /   0   0   0   5   5                        
COLUMBUS        27  42  21  49  22 /   0   0   0   5   5                        
GAINESVILLE     23  35  17  42  19 /   0   5   0   5   5                        
MACON           28  44  20  49  20 /   0   0   0   5   5                        
ROME            22  38  15  45  14 /   0   0   0   5   5                        
PEACHTREE CITY  21  36  14  44   9 /   0   0   0   5   5                        
VIDALIA         25  43  17  49  19 /   0   0   0   5   5                        
&&                                                                              
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:                 
BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...BUTTS...CARROLL...                   
CATOOSA...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...CLARKE...                      
CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...                  
DOUGLAS...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...                        
GLASCOCK...GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...                       
HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...JACKSON...JASPER...               
JONES...LAMAR...LUMPKIN...MACON...MADISON...MARION...                           
MERIWETHER...MONROE...MORGAN...MURRAY...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...                    
NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH...                        
PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...SOUTH                      
FULTON...SPALDING...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TOWNS...                     
TROUP...TWIGGS...UNION...UPSON...WALKER...WALTON...WARREN...                    
WASHINGTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILKES...WILKINSON.                            
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY                
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CATOOSA...DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER...                  
LUMPKIN...MURRAY...PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION...WHITE...WHITFIELD.                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
37/15                                                                           
</pre> ga                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
602 PM EST WED JAN 2 2008                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL TRANSLATE EAST...AND                    
SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE FWA AND SBN TAF SITES EARLY IN THE                      
FORECAST PERIOD. SUBSEQUENTLY...CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR                    
TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AS WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST                
AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION.                            
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
MUCH WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH THE CHANCE              
FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 40S ARE EXPECTED TO MELT MUCH              
OF THE SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN CURRENT SOIL CONDITIONS...SNOW               
MELT AND EXPECTED RAINFALL...RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE                  
SIGNIFICANTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH RIVER FLOODING LIKELY BY                   
WEDNESDAY.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 PM EST WED JAN 2 2008/                          
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
TRICKY FORECAST ONCE AGAIN WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS BEING THE ONGOING             
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA AND LOW TEMPS/CLEARING            
TONIGHT. RUC 13...12Z NAM AND SREF HAVE BEEN HANDLING SHORT                     
TERM/LAKE PROCESSES DECENT FOR THE MOST PART (WITH ADJUSTMENTS TO               
CURRENT OBS)...SO HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TO THEM.                                
POTENT SHORELINE BAND OVER PORTIONS OF LA PORTE AND BERRIEN COUNTIES            
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE EVENING...AND WAIN IN THE               
PROCESS. NAM H925 OMEGA FIELDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT TRANSITION FROM              
AN INTENSE SINGLE BAND TO MULTIPLE PARALLEL BANDS AS WINDS SHIFT MORE           
WESTERLY. GIVEN DECENT UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES CENTERED JUST                 
BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE/STRONG LL CONVERGENCE IN PLACE                  
INDICATED BY CONVERGENCE WIND SIGNATURE/COLLOCATION OF SFC SYNOPTIC             
TROUGH NEAR THE SOUTH END OF THE BAND/NAM BUFFER INDICATED LAKE                 
INDUCED CAPE VALUES OF NEARLY 350 J/KG...EXPECT HEAVY TO MODERATE               
SNOW TO PERSIST THROUGH THE ADVISORY PERIOD. ADVISORY MAY HAVE TO               
EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING FOR BERRIEN AND ST JOSEPH COUNTIES AS                 
MODELS MAY TO QUICK TO DIMINISH THE SNOW...ESPECIALLY WITH STRONG               
CONVERGENCE PRESENT PER 30 KNOT WINDS AT MICHIGAN CITY. BUT WITH                
EXTREMELY DRY MOVING IN UPSTREAM AND LOSS OF LAKE AGGREGATE                     
PROCESSES PER LOSS OF FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR...DIMINISHING TREND             
MAKES SENSE. WILL LET EVENING SHIFT RE-ASSES.                                   
CLEARING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL               
ALLOW EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AS WINDS DIMINISH. SNOW COVER IN            
PLACE WILL WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP QUICKLY...WITH SOME AREAS FALLING           
BELOW ZERO F. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS WELL BELOW MOS TO REFLECT DRY AIR IN           
PLACE...AND POTENTIAL DROP PER DRY AIR ALOFT. CLOUDS OVER EASTERN               
PORTIONS OF THE FA MAY ALSO CLEAR AS LAKE PRECESS WILL BE THE SOLE              
CONTRIBUTION TO THE CLOUD FIELD TONIGHT. HAVE TRIED TO ADJUST CLOUD             
COVER TO H925 TRENDS...AND REFLECT THIS IN MINS.                                
LOOK FOR CLEAR SKIES TOMORROW WITH COOL TEMPS ONCE AGAIN. HAVE UNDER            
CUT MOS GAIN DUE TO UPSTREAM TRENDS AND EXPECTED MIXING HEIGHTS. NW             
PORTIONS OF THE FA MAY SEE THE WARMER TEMPS AS WAA ENSUES AND ALLOWS            
RAPID THICKNESS INCREASES AND INCREASED LL FLOW.                                
LONG TERM...                                                                    
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE LONG WAVE TROF WILL BECOME               
REESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS THIS WEEKEND...WITH AN                   
AMPLIFYING RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. SMALLER SHORTWAVE           
TROFS WILL EJECT EAST OUT OF THE MAIN TROF...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR            
PRECIPITATION STARTING SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RISE               
ABOVE NORMAL AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS PERSIST. AREAS OF            
FOG WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AND               
MOVES OVER SNOW COVERED AREAS. THE FOG WILL PROBABLY PERSIST TO AT              
LEAST SOME EXTENT UNTIL THE SNOW MELTS...CONSIDERING DEW POINT                  
TEMPERATURES RISING TO NEAR 40F.  HIGHS WILL BE TEMPERED BY SNOW                
COVER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS WHERE                
SNOW COVER IS DEEPER AND WILL TAKE LONGER TO MELT. HAVE KEPT A                  
CHANCE FOR RAIN FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND ADDED A CHANCE FOR            
RAIN WEDNESDAY GIVEN SHORT WAVE TROFS MIGRATING NORTHEAST INTO THE              
GREAT LAKES REGION. A MAJOR TROF SHOULD MOVE EAST TUESDAY OR                    
WEDNESDAY...AND BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE RIVER FLOODING AS                  
RUNOFF RAIN WATER COMBINES WITH RECENT SNOWMELT. THE GFS PER                    
COMET/UCAR ENSEMBLE EXPERIMENTAL ANALYSIS CONTINUED TO INDICATE MUCH            
UNCERTAINTY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW BY THE                
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING           
     FOR INZ003-004.                                                            
MI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077.          
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...CHAMBERLAIN                                                        
LONG TERM...SKIPPER                                                             
AVIATION...SKIPPER                                                              
HYDROLOGY...SKIPPER                                                             
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...DELAYED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
447 PM EST WED JAN 2 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TRICKY FORECAST ONCE AGAIN WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS BEING THE ONGOING             
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA AND LOW TEMPS/CLEARING            
TONIGHT. RUC 13...12Z NAM AND SREF HAVE BEEN HANDLING SHORT                     
TERM/LAKE PROCESSES DECENT FOR THE MOST PART (WITH ADJUSTMENTS TO               
CURRENT OBS)...SO HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TO THEM.                                
POTENT SHORELINE BAND OVER PORTIONS OF LA PORTE AND BERRIEN COUNTIES            
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE EVENING...AND WAIN IN THE               
PROCESS. NAM H925 OMEGA FIELDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT TRANSITION FROM              
AN INTENSE SINGLE BAND TO MULTIPLE PARALLEL BANDS AS WINDS SHIFT MORE           
WESTERLY. GIVEN DECENT UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES CENTERED JUST                 
BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE/STRONG LL CONVERGENCE IN PLACE                  
INDICATED BY CONVERGENCE WIND SIGNATURE/COLLOCATION OF SFC SYNOPTIC             
TROUGH NEAR THE SOUTH END OF THE BAND/NAM BUFFER INDICATED LAKE                 
INDUCED CAPE VALUES OF NEARLY 350 J/KG...EXPECT HEAVY TO MODERATE               
SNOW TO PERSIST THROUGH THE ADVISORY PERIOD. ADVISORY MAY HAVE TO               
EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING FOR BERRIEN AND ST JOSEPH COUNTIES AS                 
MODELS MAY TO QUICK TO DIMINISH THE SNOW...ESPECIALLY WITH STRONG               
CONVERGENCE PRESENT PER 30 KNOT WINDS AT MICHIGAN CITY. BUT WITH                
EXTREMELY DRY MOVING IN UPSTREAM AND LOSS OF LAKE AGGREGATE                     
PROCESSES PER LOSS OF FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR...DIMINISHING TREND             
MAKES SENSE. WILL LET EVENING SHIFT RE-ASSES.                                   
CLEARING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL               
ALLOW EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AS WINDS DIMINISH. SNOW COVER IN            
PLACE WILL WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP QUICKLY...WITH SOME AREAS FALLING           
BELOW ZERO F. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS WELL BELOW MOS TO REFLECT DRY AIR IN           
PLACE...AND POTENTIAL DROP PER DRY AIR ALOFT. CLOUDS OVER EASTERN               
PORTIONS OF THE FA MAY ALSO CLEAR AS LAKE PRECESS WILL BE THE SOLE              
CONTRIBUTION TO THE CLOUD FIELD TONIGHT. HAVE TRIED TO ADJUST CLOUD             
COVER TO H925 TRENDS...AND REFLECT THIS IN MINS.                                
LOOK FOR CLEAR SKIES TOMORROW WITH COOL TEMPS ONCE AGAIN. HAVE UNDER            
CUT MOS GAIN DUE TO UPSTREAM TRENDS AND EXPECTED MIXING HEIGHTS. NW             
PORTIONS OF THE FA MAY SEE THE WARMER TEMPS AS WAA ENSUES AND ALLOWS            
RAPID THICKNESS INCREASES AND INCREASED LL FLOW.                                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE LONG WAVE TROF WILL BECOME               
REESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS THIS WEEKEND...WITH AN                   
AMPLIFYING RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. SMALLER SHORTWAVE           
TROFS WILL EJECT EAST OUT OF THE MAIN TROF...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR            
PRECIPITATION STARTING SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RISE               
ABOVE NORMAL AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS PERSIST. AREAS OF            
FOG WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AND               
MOVES OVER SNOW COVERED AREAS. THE FOG WILL PROBABLY PERSIST TO AT              
LEAST SOME EXTENT UNTIL THE SNOW MELTS...CONSIDERING DEW POINT                  
TEMPERATURES RISING TO NEAR 40F.  HIGHS WILL BE TEMPERED BY SNOW                
COVER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS WHERE                
SNOW COVER IS DEEPER AND WILL TAKE LONGER TO MELT. HAVE KEPT A                  
CHANCE FOR RAIN FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND ADDED A CHANCE FOR            
RAIN WEDNESDAY GIVEN SHORT WAVE TROFS MIGRATING NORTHEAST INTO THE              
GREAT LAKES REGION. A MAJOR TROF SHOULD MOVE EAST TUESDAY OR                    
WEDNESDAY...AND BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE RIVER FLOODING AS                  
RUNOFF RAIN WATER COMBINES WITH RECENT SNOWMELT. THE GFS PER                    
COMET/UCAR ENSEMBLE EXPERIMENTAL ANALYSIS CONTINUED TO INDICATE MUCH            
UNCERTAINTY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW BY THE                
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING           
     FOR INZ003-004.                                                            
MI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077.          
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...CHAMBERLAIN                                                        
LONG TERM...SKIPPER                                                             
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1228 PM EST WED JAN 2 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
OPTED TO DOWNGRADE LAKE EFFECT WARNING TO ADVISORY. CURRENT SFC                 
ANALYSIS REVEALS AN INTENSE LAKE INDUCED MESO-LOW CENTERED OVER                 
BEH...WITH A NICE CONVERGENT SIGNATURE IN THE SFC WIND FIELD. THIS              
SYSTEM IS SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF INTENSE POCKETS OF HEAVY                
SNOW MAINLY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRESSURE RISE/FALL                    
COUPLET/WAA ZONE. VISBYS DOWN TO 1/2 MILE HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH               
THIS SYSTEM...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE LOWER AREAS.                    
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE                 
HEAVIEST CONVECTIVE POCKETS. HOWEVER...THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE                     
TRANSIENT AND WILL NOT LAST LONG AT A GIVEN LOCATION. FARTHER                   
WEST...A MID-LAKE CONVECTIVE BAND WAS EVIDENT IN SAT AND RADAR                  
OBS. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM IS JUST NOW ENTERING SW                    
BERRIEN AND NORTHERN LA PORTE COUNTIES.                                         
MODEL GUIDANCE IS POORLY HANDLING THIS FEATURE WITH POOR LL                     
VERTICAL MOTION PLACEMENT. HAVE OPTED TO USE THE NAM FOR GUIDANCE               
WITH HELP FROM THE RUC 13...WITH MODIFICATION OF THEIR OUTPUT BASED             
ON OBS. BUFFER SOUNDINGS ARE PROGGING NEARLY 350 J/KG OF                        
CAPE...SUPPORTING MODERATE LL LIFT. AS THE MESO LOW PROGRESS                    
INLAND...IT WILL QUICKLY WAIN AS HEAT FLUX FROM THE LAKE WILL END.              
THUS...EXPECTING THE DOMINATE PLAYER TO BECOME THE MID-LAKE BAND THIS           
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO UNDERGO DEGRADATION AS              
INVERSION HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT               
INTO THE REGION. 925 MODEL OMEGA FIELDS CONFIRM THIS...AS UPWARD                
MOTION QUICKLY DIMINISHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECTING                 
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA               
GIVEN TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE BANDS/WAINING TRENDS IN LIFT/LOSS OF              
MESO LOW/AND PLACEMENT OF VERTICAL MOTION MAX IN RELATION TO THE                
DENDRIDIC GROWTH ZONE. HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED AT                 
THE SOUTH END OF THE MID-LAKE BAND WHERE RESIDENCE TIME WILL BE                 
THE MAIN FACTOR IN ACCUMULATIONS. EXPECT A TRANSITION TO PARALLEL               
BANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS LL WINDS TURN MORE                                 
WESTERLY...DIMINISHING LAKE SNOWS TO FLURRIES LATER THIS EVENING.               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 AM EST WED JAN 2 2008/                          
AVIATION (12Z TAFS)...                                                          
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE FOUND ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA...WITH                
CIGS AROUND 1 TO 2K FEET AND SOME RESTRICTION TO VSBY DUE TO BR                 
AND -SN. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.                 
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE                    
EVENING. VSBY AS LOW AS 1/2 TO 1SM WILL BE POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE               
LAKE AND THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. SOME CLEARING AND LESSEN OF              
THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT.                                        
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM EST WED JAN 2 2008/                           
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...                                               
.STRONG LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE TODAY...                                      
EVERYTHING IS STARTING WIND DOWN SOME...BUT ONE MORE ACT IS LEFT                
TO PLAY OUT TODAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. HAVE                     
FOLLOWED CLOSE TO THE RUC13 AND NAM12 THROUGH THE PERIOD. EACH                  
CONTINUE TO SHOWS THE STRONG CAA INTO THE REGION...THE HIGHS FOR                
TODAY WILL NOT BE FAR FROM THE CURRENT TEMPS AS OF THIS                         
WRITING...WITH SOME CLEARING OF SKIES...LIGHTER WIND AND SNOWPACK               
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MUCH MUCH LOWER THAN                   
GUIDANCE...THE RAW NUMBERS FROM THE RUC HAVE MADE THIS ADJUSTMENT               
AND HAVE LEANED HEAVILY THAT WAY. THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WILL                
BE THE BIGGEST PART TO THIS...WHERE NO OR VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER               
EXISTS THE TEMPS WILL DROP FAST. SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS LIKELY.               
BOTH SAT/OBS AND MODEL DATA WOULD SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER STRONG SHOT              
OF LAKE EFFECT WOULD BE LIKELY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE                       
AFTERNOON...AND THEN WINDING DOWN THROUGH THE EVENING. HAVE                     
FOLLOWED CLOSE TO THE 925 MB STREAMLINES AND OMEGAS FOR THE BEST                
AREAS FOR THE HEAVIER BANDS. ADDITIONAL 3 TO 7 INCHES WITH THE                  
LAKE EFFECT WOULD BE LIKELY...OUTSIDE OF THE PREFERRED LAKE EFFECT              
AREA UP TO ONE INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND MAYBE ANOTHER INCH               
TONIGHT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRAJECTORIES OF THE BANDS. THE BANDS             
SHOULD SET UP WITH MORE NORTHERLY TRAJECTORIES THROUGH BERRIEN MI               
AND ST JOE IN COUNTIES LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO DRIFT               
MORE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THEN WEST BY LATE TONIGHT BEFORE THE                
SFC RIDGING AND THE DRIER AIR STARTS TO INFILTRATE TOO DEEP TO                  
SUSTAIN THE LES. IF WINDS DO NOT DROP OFF SUFFICIENTLY...OR THE                 
FORECAST LOWS NOT LOW ENOUGH THEN ANOTHER WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY               
BE NEEDED FOR TONIGHT...THE VALUES ARE VERY CLOSE TO LOCAL                      
CRITERIA.                                                                       
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                         
ON THURSDAY THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OFF TO               
THE EAST COAST...ENDING ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN OUR AREA. THE HIGH              
IS GOING TO BE CENTERED OVER THE EAST COAST INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL            
KEEP OUR CWA IN A SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW...WHICH WILL             
BRING UP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS EXPECTED TO REACH            
OUR CWA SATURDAY. THIS FLOW AND MOISTURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN             
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. SO HAVE KEPT RAIN CHANCES IN THE               
FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND. I SAY RAIN AS THIS FLOW REGIME WILL ALSO             
CAUSE WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO OUR CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLIMBING            
FROM THURSDAY TO NEXT MONDAY. FROM HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S ON                    
THURSDAY TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S ON MONDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES                
CLIMB TO AROUND 7 DEGREES CELSIUS ON SUNDAY AND AROUND 9 TO 10                  
DEGREES CELSIUS ON MONDAY. MODELS ARE REALLY DIFFERING ON A LOW                 
PRESSURE SYSTEM NEXT WEEK. THE SCENARIO IS VASTLY DIFFERENT BETWEEN             
EACH ONE...BUT THE ONE THING THAT THEY CAN ALL AGREE ON IS THAT THE             
LOW WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTHWEST...KEEPING US WARM. AT 06Z TUESDAY             
THE GFS HAS THE LOW OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN/NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA              
AND THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BY 00Z WEDNESDAY             
THE GFS MOVES THE LOW TO JAMES BAY IN CANADA AND THE ECMWF MOVES THE            
LOW TO OVER IOWA. WILL NOT BE MAKING ANY CHANGES FOR NEXT WEEK AT               
THE MOMENT. A COOL DOWN HOWEVER COULD BE IN STORE FOR THE LATER PART            
OF NEXT WEEK AS GFS 850MB TEMPS ARE SHOWING COLD 850MB TEMPS                    
DROPPING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.                                
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING           
     FOR INZ003>005.                                                            
MI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077-          
     078.                                                                       
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SCHOTT                                                    
LONG TERM...LOTHAMER                                                            
UPDATE...CHAMBERLAIN                                                            
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN                                        
1200 PM EST WED JAN 2 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS.                                            
MVFR CIGS SHOULD IMPACT THE TAF SITES FROM TIME TO TIME TODAY INTO              
THIS EVENING. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT LOW CLDS WILL ONLY                    
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE INVERSION LOWERS AND                        
DRYING/SUBSIDENCE BEGINS TO DOMINATE. EXPECT VFR CONDS LATER TONIGHT            
THROUGH THU AS THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS PASSES OVER THE AREA.                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM AND               
THE ENDING OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE             
PLAINS BUILDS THIS WAY.                                                         
WIND CHILLS ADVISORY WILL ALSO BE NEEDED UNTIL MID MORNING.                     
TEMPERATURES MAY FALL TO NEAR ZERO IN LAFAYETTE AREA TOWARDS SUNRISE            
AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MOST OTHER AREAS.                                   
IN THE SHORT TERM HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND RUC...NAM SURFACE                      
TEMPERATURES AND IN SOME CASES HAVE HAD TO ADJUST THESE DOWN. MOS               
TEMPERATURES MAY BE OFF 10 DEGREES TOO WARM FOR THIS MORNING AND                
LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM THEY PROBABLY HAVE A PRETTY WARM               
BIAS AT LEAST INTO THURSDAY. WILL CUT 2 TO 4 DEGREES TODAY AND                  
THURSDAY AND ABOUT 5 DEGREES TONIGHT.                                           
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR                 
NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA TODAY. HOWEVER SUBSIDENCE INCREASING WILL               
GRADUALLY END PRECIP FROM THE WEST TODAY AND ACROSS ALL AREAS BY                
TONIGHT.                                                                        
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC FEATURES. STRONG              
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD AND OFF               
EAST COAST BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE             
EAST ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY AND ALL MODELS STILL INDICATING A               
WARMUP BY THE WEEKEND.                                                          
REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND NO CHANGES MADE FROM THE WEEKEND ON.            
&&                                                                              
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND CHILL ADVISORY ALONG AND                
NORTH OF A SULLIVAN TO FRANKLIN TO NEW CASTLE LINE UNTIL 9 AM.                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...CO                                                                   
PUBLIC...JH                                                                     
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
643 AM EST WED JAN 2 2008                                                       
.AVIATION (12Z TAFS)...                                                         
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE FOUND ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA...WITH                
CIGS AROUND 1 TO 2K FEET AND SOME RESTRICTION TO VSBY DUE TO BR                 
AND -SN. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.                 
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE                    
EVENING. VSBY AS LOW AS 1/2 TO 1SM WILL BE POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE               
LAKE AND THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. SOME CLEARING AND LESSEN OF              
THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT.                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM EST WED JAN 2 2008/                          
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...                                               
..STRONG LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE TODAY...                                     
EVERYTHING IS STARTING WIND DOWN SOME...BUT ONE MORE ACT IS LEFT                
TO PLAY OUT TODAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. HAVE                     
FOLLOWED CLOSE TO THE RUC13 AND NAM12 THROUGH THE PERIOD. EACH                  
CONTINUE TO SHOWS THE STRONG CAA INTO THE REGION...THE HIGHS FOR                
TODAY WILL NOT BE FAR FROM THE CURRENT TEMPS AS OF THIS                         
WRITING...WITH SOME CLEARING OF SKIES...LIGHTER WIND AND SNOWPACK               
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MUCH MUCH LOWER THAN                   
GUIDANCE...THE RAW NUMBERS FROM THE RUC HAVE MADE THIS ADJUSTMENT               
AND HAVE LEANED HEAVILY THAT WAY. THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WILL                
BE THE BIGGEST PART TO THIS...WHERE NO OR VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER               
EXISTS THE TEMPS WILL DROP FAST. SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS LIKELY.               
BOTH SAT/OBS AND MODEL DATA WOULD SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER STRONG SHOT              
OF LAKE EFFECT WOULD BE LIKELY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE                       
AFTERNOON...AND THEN WINDING DOWN THROUGH THE EVENING. HAVE                     
FOLLOWED CLOSE TO THE 925 MB STREAMLINES AND OMEGAS FOR THE BEST                
AREAS FOR THE HEAVIER BANDS. ADDITIONAL 3 TO 7 INCHES WITH THE                  
LAKE EFFECT WOULD BE LIKELY...OUTSIDE OF THE PREFERRED LAKE EFFECT              
AREA UP TO ONE INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND MAYBE ANOTHER INCH               
TONIGHT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRAJECTORIES OF THE BANDS. THE BANDS             
SHOULD SET UP WITH MORE NORTHERLY TRAJECTORIES THROUGH BERRIEN MI               
AND ST JOE IN COUNTIES LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO DRIFT               
MORE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THEN WEST BY LATE TONIGHT BEFORE THE                
SFC RIDGING AND THE DRIER AIR STARTS TO INFILTRATE TOO DEEP TO                  
SUSTAIN THE LES. IF WINDS DO NOT DROP OFF SUFFICIENTLY...OR THE                 
FORECAST LOWS NOT LOW ENOUGH THEN ANOTHER WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY               
BE NEEDED FOR TONIGHT...THE VALUES ARE VERY CLOSE TO LOCAL                      
CRITERIA.                                                                       
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                         
ON THURSDAY THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OFF TO               
THE EAST COAST...ENDING ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN OUR AREA. THE HIGH              
IS GOING TO BE CENTERED OVER THE EAST COAST INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL            
KEEP OUR CWA IN A SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW...WHICH WILL             
BRING UP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS EXPECTED TO REACH            
OUR CWA SATURDAY. THIS FLOW AND MOISTURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN             
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. SO HAVE KEPT RAIN CHANCES IN THE               
FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND. I SAY RAIN AS THIS FLOW REGIME WILL ALSO             
CAUSE WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO OUR CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLIMBING            
FROM THURSDAY TO NEXT MONDAY. FROM HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S ON                    
THURSDAY TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S ON MONDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES                
CLIMB TO AROUND 7 DEGREES CELSIUS ON SUNDAY AND AROUND 9 TO 10                  
DEGREES CELSIUS ON MONDAY. MODELS ARE REALLY DIFFERING ON A LOW                 
PRESSURE SYSTEM NEXT WEEK. THE SCENARIO IS VASTLY DIFFERENT BETWEEN             
EACH ONE...BUT THE ONE THING THAT THEY CAN ALL AGREE ON IS THAT THE             
LOW WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTHWEST...KEEPING US WARM. AT 06Z TUESDAY             
THE GFS HAS THE LOW OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN/NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA              
AND THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BY 00Z WEDNESDAY             
THE GFS MOVES THE LOW TO JAMES BAY IN CANADA AND THE ECMWF MOVES THE            
LOW TO OVER IOWA. WILL NOT BE MAKING ANY CHANGES FOR NEXT WEEK AT               
THE MOMENT. A COOL DOWN HOWEVER COULD BE IN STORE FOR THE LATER PART            
OF NEXT WEEK AS GFS 850MB TEMPS ARE SHOWING COLD 850MB TEMPS                    
DROPPING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.                                
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS              
     AFTERNOON FOR INZ006>009-012>017.                                          
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING           
     FOR INZ003>005.                                                            
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR INZ013-015-            
     020-022>024-032.                                                           
MI...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR           
     MIZ079-080.                                                                
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077-           
     078.                                                                       
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...SCHOTT                                                             
LONG TERM...LOTHAMER                                                            
AVIATION...SCHOTT                                                               
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN                                        
600 AM EST WED JAN 2 2008                                                       
.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS.                                            
MVFR CIGS ARE CURRENTLY OVR ALL SITES BUT KLAF. BASED ON UPSTREAM               
OBS WOULD EXPECT THEM TO BREAK OVR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER WITH             
INVERSION NOT LIKELY TO ERODE AS NOT A LOT OF SFC WARMING EXPECTED              
TODAY NOT SURE HOW CLOUDS WL BE ABLE TO MIX OUT. TIME HTS SHOW                  
MOISTURE STICKING AROUND TIL TONIGHT. THINK BEST COURSE OF ACTION AT            
THIS TIME IS TO INCLUDE MVFR CIGS FOR TODAY AND SLOW THEIR RISE TO              
VFR TIL TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES AT THE               
SITES IN TERMS OF PRECIP SO WL NOT INCLUDE AND NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS             
EXPECTED. WIND GUSTS MAY PICK UP AGAIN DURING THE DAY BEFORE EASING             
OFF TONIGHT.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM AND               
THE ENDING OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE             
PLAINS BUILDS THIS WAY.                                                         
WIND CHILLS ADVISORY WILL ALSO BE NEEDED UNTIL MID MORING.                      
TEMPERATURES MAY FALL TO NEAR ZERO IN LAFAYETTE AREA TOWARDS SUNRISE            
AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MOST OTHER AREAS.                                   
IN THE SHORT TERM HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND RUC...NAM SURFACE                      
TEMPERATURES AND IN SOME CASES HAVE HAD TO ADJUST THESE DOWN. MOS               
TEMPERATURES MAY BE OFF 10 DEGREES TOO WARM FOR THIS MORNING AND                
LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM THEY PROBABLY HAVE A PRETTY WARM               
BIAS AT LEAST INTO THURSDAY. WILL CUT 2 TO 4 DEGREES TODAY AND                  
THURSDAY AND ABOUT 5 DEGREES TONIGHT.                                           
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR                 
NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA TODAY. HOWEVER SUBSIDENCE INCREASING WILL               
GRADUALLY END PRECIP FROM THE WEST TODAY AND ACROSS ALL AREAS BY                
TONIGHT.                                                                        
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC FEATURES. STRONG              
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD AND OFF               
EAST COAST BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE             
EAST ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY AND ALL MODELS STILL INDICATING A               
WARMUP BY THE WEEKEND.                                                          
REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND NO CHANGES MADE FROM THE WEEKEND ON.            
&&                                                                              
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND CHILL ADVISORY ALONG AND                
NORTH OF A SULLIVAN TO FRANKLIN TO NEW CASTLE LINE UNTIL 9 AM.                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...CP                                                                   
PUBLIC...JH                                                                     
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
445 AM EST WED JAN 2 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...                                              
...STRONG LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE TODAY...                                    
EVERYTHING IS STARTING WIND DOWN SOME...BUT ONE MORE ACT IS LEFT                
TO PLAY OUT TODAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. HAVE                     
FOLLOWED CLOSE TO THE RUC13 AND NAM12 THROUGH THE PERIOD. EACH                  
CONTINUE TO SHOWS THE STRONG CAA INTO THE REGION...THE HIGHS FOR                
TODAY WILL NOT BE FAR FROM THE CURRENT TEMPS AS OF THIS                         
WRITING...WITH SOME CLEARING OF SKIES...LIGHTER WIND AND SNOWPACK               
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MUCH MUCH LOWER THAN                   
GUIDANCE...THE RAW NUMBERS FROM THE RUC HAVE MADE THIS ADJUSTMENT               
AND HAVE LEANED HEAVILY THAT WAY. THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WILL                
BE THE BIGGEST PART TO THIS...WHERE NO OR VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER               
EXISTS THE TEMPS WILL DROP FAST. SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS LIKELY.               
BOTH SAT/OBS AND MODEL DATA WOULD SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER STRONG SHOT              
OF LAKE EFFECT WOULD BE LIKELY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE                       
AFTERNOON...AND THEN WINDING DOWN THROUGH THE EVENING. HAVE                     
FOLLOWED CLOSE TO THE 925 MB STREAMLINES AND OMEGAS FOR THE BEST                
AREAS FOR THE HEAVIER BANDS. ADDITIONAL 3 TO 7 INCHES WITH THE                  
LAKE EFFECT WOULD BE LIKELY...OUTSIDE OF THE PREFERRED LAKE EFFECT              
AREA UP TO ONE INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND MAYBE ANOTHER INCH               
TONIGHT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRAJECTORIES OF THE BANDS. THE BANDS             
SHOULD SET UP WITH MORE NORTHERLY TRAJECTORIES THROUGH BERRIEN MI               
AND ST JOE IN COUNTIES LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO DRIFT               
MORE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THEN WEST BY LATE TONIGHT BEFORE THE                
SFC RIDGING AND THE DRIER AIR STARTS TO INFILTRATE TOO DEEP TO                  
SUSTAIN THE LES. IF WINDS DO NOT DROP OFF SUFFICIENTLY...OR THE                 
FORECAST LOWS NOT LOW ENOUGH THEN ANOTHER WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY               
BE NEEDED FOR TONIGHT...THE VALUES ARE VERY CLOSE TO LOCAL                      
CRITERIA.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                        
ON THURSDAY THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OFF TO               
THE EAST COAST...ENDING ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN OUR AREA. THE HIGH              
IS GOING TO BE CENTERED OVER THE EAST COAST INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL            
KEEP OUR CWA IN A SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW...WHICH WILL             
BRING UP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS EXPECTED TO REACH            
OUR CWA SATURDAY. THIS FLOW AND MOISTURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN             
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. SO HAVE KEPT RAIN CHANCES IN THE               
FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND. I SAY RAIN AS THIS FLOW REGIME WILL ALSO             
CAUSE WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO OUR CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLIMBING            
FROM THURSDAY TO NEXT MONDAY. FROM HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S ON                    
THURSDAY TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S ON MONDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES                
CLIMB TO AROUND 7 DEGREES CELSIUS ON SUNDAY AND AROUND 9 TO 10                  
DEGREES CELSIUS ON MONDAY. MODELS ARE REALLY DIFFERING ON A LOW                 
PRESSURE SYSTEM NEXT WEEK. THE SCENARIO IS VASTLY DIFFERENT BETWEEN             
EACH ONE...BUT THE ONE THING THAT THEY CAN ALL AGREE ON IS THAT THE             
LOW WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTHWEST...KEEPING US WARM. AT 06Z TUESDAY             
THE GFS HAS THE LOW OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN/NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA              
AND THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BY 00Z WEDNESDAY             
THE GFS MOVES THE LOW TO JAMES BAY IN CANADA AND THE ECMWF MOVES THE            
LOW TO OVER IOWA. WILL NOT BE MAKING ANY CHANGES FOR NEXT WEEK AT               
THE MOMENT. A COOL DOWN HOWEVER COULD BE IN STORE FOR THE LATER PART            
OF NEXT WEEK AS GFS 850MB TEMPS ARE SHOWING COLD 850MB TEMPS                    
DROPPING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.                                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1225 AM EST WED JAN 2 2008/                         
AVIATION (06Z TAFS)...                                                          
IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE THE REGION...LOW CIGS AROUND 1 TO              
2K FEET WITH VSBYS DOWN TO 1 TO 3 SM ARE THE NORM. LAKE EFFECT                  
BAND STILL MOVING INTO AND THRU THE REGION...THOUGH HAVE STARTED                
TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS PER RADAR TRENDS...AND RIFT SLIGHT BACK TO                
THE WEST. THE LAKE EFFECT SHOW RE STRENGTHEN DURING THE MID                     
MORNING TOWARDS MIDDAY...HAVE LOWERED VSBYS WITH SN OR -SN                      
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY AROUND AND NEAR SBN. AS SFC RIDGE STARTS TO                 
PUSH FURTHER INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE SNOWS WILL                
STOP AND VSBYS WILL START TO JUMP BACK INTO VFR LEVELS...THOUGH                 
THE LOW CIGS MAY REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.                          
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ THIS              
     MORNING FOR INZ006>009-012-013-015>017.                                    
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING           
     FOR INZ003>005.                                                            
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR INZ013-015-            
     020-022>024-032.                                                           
MI...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR             
     MIZ079-080.                                                                
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077-           
     078.                                                                       
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...SCHOTT                                                             
LONG TERM...LOTHAMER                                                            
AVIATION...SCHOTT                                                               
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN                                        
335 AM EST WED JAN 2 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM AND               
THE ENDING OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE             
PLAINS BUILDS THIS WAY.                                                         
WIND CHILLS ADVISORY WILL ALSO BE NEEDED UNTIL MID MORING.                      
TEMPERATURES MAY FALL TO NEAR ZERO IN LAFAYETTE AREA TOWARDS SUNRISE            
AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MOST OTHER AREAS.                                   
IN THE SHORT TERM HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND RUC...NAM SURFACE                      
TEMPERATURES AND IN SOME CASES HAVE HAD TO ADJUST THESE DOWN. MOS               
TEMPERATURES MAY BE OFF 10 DEGREES TOO WARM FOR THIS MORNING AND                
LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM THEY PROBABLY HAVE A PRETTY WARM               
BIAS AT LEAST INTO THURSDAY. WILL CUT 2 TO 4 DEGREES TODAY AND                  
THURSDAY AND ABOUT 5 DEGREES TONIGHT.                                           
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR                 
NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA TODAY. HOWEVER SUBSIDENCE INCREASING WILL               
GRADUALLY END PRECIP FROM THE WEST TODAY AND ACROSS ALL AREAS BY                
TONIGHT.                                                                        
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC FEATURES. STRONG              
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD AND OFF               
EAST COAST BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE             
EAST ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY AND ALL MODELS STILL INDICATING A               
WARMUP BY THE WEEKEND.                                                          
REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND NO CHANGES MADE FROM THE WEEKEND ON.            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS                                             
SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE TAF SITES IN               
THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PD. WILL HAVE TO WATCH LAF FOR POSSIBLE               
LAKE BANDS...BUT HAVE GONE OPTIMISTIC AND ENDED SNOW THERE BY 09Z.              
VSBYS MAY STILL GO TO IFR AT LAF EARLY FOR BRIEF PERIODS...BUT                  
EXPECT MVFR OR BETTER VSBYS ELSEWHERE EARLY BEFORE BECOMING VFR BY              
09Z.                                                                            
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE                 
PERIOD...SO CONTINUED MVFR CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH                  
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED BY EVENING.                                                
&&                                                                              
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND CHILL ADVISORY ALONG AND                
NORTH OF A SULLIVAN TO FRANKLIN TO NEW CASTLE LINE UNTIL 9 AM.                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...CS                                                                   
PUBLIC...JH                                                                     
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
128 PM EST TUE JAN 1 2008                                                       
.UPDATE (2)...                                                                  
ARCTIC STREAM SW OVR CNTRL IL AND CONTD DEEPENING CAA WEDGE WITHIN              
DEEP CYCLONIC WRAP AROUND MSTR SHIELD AIDING RENEWED WIDESPREAD LK              
ENHANCEMENT W/EXPANDING/INTENSIFYING RADAR RETURNS IN MOD/HVY SNOW AS           
TOUCHED UPON IN PRIOR UPDATE. SRN EDGE OF HIGHER OVERNIGHT ACCUMS IN            
PRIOR WARNING HAD EXPIRED AT 17Z AND SEE MANY REASONS TO REPLACE                
THAT AREA W/SNOW/BLOWING SNOW ADVSY THROUGH 06Z COMMENSURATE W/TIME             
HEIGHT DEPICTIONS RETAINING DEEP TROPOSPHERIC MOIST ASCENT UNTIL                
THEN W/FVRBL DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE JUXTAPOSED AND IMPLIED ADDNL                 
ACCUMS OF GENERALLY 2 TO 4 INCHES GIVEN 20:1 SNOW RATIO HERE.                   
OUTSIDE THAT...AND WITHIN CONTD WARNING AREA...EXPECT AN ADDNL 3 TO             
6 W/LOCALLY HIGHER ALG A BEH...SBN...GSH LINE. STG GRADIENT FLW WILL            
CONT UNABATED THROUGH TONIGHT AND CONT TO PROMOTE WIDESPREAD                    
BLOWING/DRIFTING ESP AS WATER CONTENT DECREASES.                                
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...                                                                      
FIERCE LAKE ENHANCED SNOWBAND CONTS TO DRIFT EWD...ALG A THREE                  
RIVERS...KENDALLVILLE...GRABIL LINE AND WAS DROPPING A QUICK 1-2                
INCHES WITH ITS PASSAGE. UPSTREAM...LL FLW VEERS IN RESPONSE TO STG             
ARCTIC STREAM SW DIGGING SEWD ACRS ERN IA W/STG CAA NOW SPREADING               
INLAND ACRS THE AREA AND LK AGGREGATE RESPONSE SEEN IN COMPOSITE                
LOOPS W/LK SUPERIOR PRECONDITIONING NOTED YIELDING A ENHANCED LK                
RESPONSE...AUGMENTED W/ADDNL SPRT ALOFT FM ARCTIC WAVE. SEE SOME                
PROBS W/CURRENT GRIDDED BREAKOUT...NAMELY CURRENT EXTENT OF ONGOING             
WARNING AREA AND MORESO RELEGATED W/HIGHER LK ENHANCED SNOW                     
POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS AFTN ON TOP OF STG SFC GRADIENT FLW. RUC13               
AND 06Z NAM/WRF SOLUTION WHILE PAINTING AN INCREASING DEEP LYR                  
SATURATED ASCENT INVOF OF MID LVL ARCTIC WAVE...ALSO ADAMANT ON STG             
CURVED LL ASCENT PLUME INLAND W/STG LL MSTR FLUX OF LK MICHIGAN.                
THIS PRESENTS A TWO-FOLD PROBLEM...MOST NOTABLY W/UNDERDONE SNOWFALL            
AMOUNTS DOWNSTREAM OF THE LAKE AND SECONDARY PROBLEM W/TIMING EXTENT            
OF INLAND WARNING AREA. IN THE ABSENCE OF 12Z GUIDANCE...WILL TAKE A            
MEASURED APPROACH AT THIS POINT AND SCALE SNOW AMOUNTS CONSIDERABLY             
BASED ON CONSENSUS 925MB PLUME ANALYSIS AND BACKING FLOW                        
TRAJECTORIES. THIS NECESSITATES EXTENDING THE WARNING ACRS                      
ST.JOE/LAGRANGE/NOBLE AND KOSCIUSKO COUNTIES UNTIL 23Z W/POTENTIAL              
TO EXTEND FURTHER IN TIME AND/OR RESHUFFLE AS SECONDARY LK                      
ENHANCEMENT AREA MATURES THIS AFTN PRIOR TO AFTN ZONE ISSUANCE.                 
REMAINDER OF GRIDS ON TRACK.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (12Z TAFS)...                                                         
MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS ACROSS THE REGION WILL THE BE LOW CIGS AND               
VSBYS...ALONG WITH THE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS THAT WILL DEVELOP                 
TODAY. LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY THRU MUCH OF THE                   
DAY...WITH CIGS NEAR 1K FEET AND VSBYS AROUND 1-3SM. THE NW                     
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL SEE CONTINUOUS LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH               
THE PERIOD...SCTD PERIODS OF SNOW ELSEWHERE.                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM EST TUE JAN 1 2008/                          
SHORT TERM (NEW YEARS DAY AND TONIGHT)...                                       
..HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE...                                            
BACK EDGE OF THE STRONG WINTER SYSTEM IS LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA              
INTO FAR NORTHERN OHIO/LAKE ERIE EARLY THIS MORNING. DEFORMATION                
BAND APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AS IT STARTS TO EXIT THE                  
REGION...MOVING ACROSS NW OHIO. LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS               
DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO NW INDIANA AND ACROSS EXTREME SW                     
MICHIGAN IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM. TEMPS HAVE HOVERED AROUND THE                
FREEZING MARK OR JUST BELOW FOR MUCH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...IT               
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS COLD AIR POISED TO THE NORTHWEST TO DRIVE                
INTO THE REGION TODAY. WILL FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE NAM12 WITH ITS                 
SOLID TRACK RECORD FOR DEALING WITH LES AND BETTER                              
RESOLUTION...AND HAS INITIALIZED WELL.                                          
LOW BECOMES NEARLY STACKED ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS                                
MORNING...DRIFTING FURTHER INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH                 
THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING FROM MN/WI THIS                      
AFTERNOON INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.                 
CAA CONTINUES THRU THE MORNING INTO THE AFTN AND EVEN. H850 TEMPS               
DROPPING TO CLOSE TO -13 OR -14C BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY                   
EVENING. DELTA T/S INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND BECOME                      
FAVORABLE BY LATE MORN/EARLY AFTN FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY LES SNOW.               
BEFORE THIS TIME DECENT BANDS OFF THE LAKE STILL ASSOCIATED WITH                
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF SNOW WELL INLAND FROM                
THE LAKE. AS MENTIONED ABOVE HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE NAM12 AND ITS              
925 OMEGA/STREAMLINE FIELDS TO LOOK FOR BEST AREA/AMOUNTS FOR LES.              
SHEAR IS LITTLE IF NOT NON-EXISTENT FOR THE MOST PART. STREAMLINES              
WOULD SUGGEST THAT A CONNECTION TO LAKE SUPERIOR MAYBE POSSIBLE                 
WHICH COULD ENHANCE THE BAND(S). THIS PATTERN STAYS IN PLACE THRU               
THE PERIOD...HAVE UPPED POPS IN THE NW FORECAST AREA TO HIGH END                
CATEGORICAL. ALSO AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PULLS THROUGH IT MAY                
HELP ENHANCED THE LIFT AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...WHILE BRINGING LIGHT              
ACCUMS AREAWIDE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.                                  
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH THE STRONG PRESS GRADIENT                  
ACROSS THE REGION SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND THE LARGE              
SFC HIGH (1045MB+) ACROSS THE PLAINS. 925 WINDS HOVER AROUND                    
30-35KNOTS THRU THE PERIOD AND WILL MIX DOWN WITH SOME MINOR LOSS               
AT BEST...GUSTS IN THE 35-40 MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE                     
TONIGHT PERIOD WHERE WINDS SEEM TO NOTCH A BIT HIGHER. BLOWING AND              
DRIFTING OF SNOW WILL AN SIGNIFICANT ISSUE.                                     
TEMPS WILL MOST LIKELY FALL THRU THE DAY...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE              
UPPER TEENS BY LATE TUES NIGHT OR EARLY WED...MAYBE SLIGHTLY WARMER             
CLOSER TO THE LAKE OR IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA              
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...                                         
..SIGNIFICANT WARM UP AHEAD...                                                  
LONG TERM FORECAST WILL FEATURE A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP LATE THIS                 
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LARGE SCALE RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN            
PACIFIC SHIFTS WEST UNDER A DEVELOPING NEGATIVE PNA REGIME. THIS                
WILL PROMOTE INTENSE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN US. MEANWHILE                   
MASSIVE RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN US IN RESPONSE TO                 
ROBUST WAA AND LARGE SCALE BLOCKING OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.                  
ENSEMBLE INDICES CONFIRM A LARGE POSITIVE SPIKE IN THE NAO PER                  
AFOREMENTIONED PROCESSES...WHICH COUPLED WITH A NEGATIVE PNA WILL               
SPELL A WARM PATTERN FOR THE REGION. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE                  
BEEN...AND CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THIS PATTERN SHIFT. IN FACT....BY              
MONDAY EVENING THE NAEFS PROGS H85 TEMPS AT 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS             
ABOVE CLIMO...IMPRESSIVE NONE THE LESS. BOTTOM LINE...HAVE CONTINUED            
TO WARM TEMPS SUNDAY AND BEYOND...WITH 50S NOW IN THE GRIDS BOTH                
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...STILL BELOW CURRENT PROGS.                                  
ON THE FRONT END OF THE PERIOD...HAVE INCREASED POPS WED MORNING                
PER LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL DUE TO FAVORABLE NORTH-SOUTH                     
FETCH/AGGREGATE PRECONDITIONING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR/MODERATE LAKE                
INDUCED CAPE VALUES OF NEARLY 400 J/KG/AND LOW SHEAR. NAM/WRF 925               
OMEGA FIELDS CONFIRM AN INTENSE POSITIVE VERTICAL MOTION COUPLET IN             
PLACE OVER BERRIEN AND ST. JOSEPH (IN) COUNTIES. LAKE SNOWS ARE                 
EXPECTED TO WAIN AS WINDS SHIFT WESTERLY DECREASING FETCH AND                   
INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY. HAVE RETAINED THIS SHIFT                 
NORTH IN THE GRIDS WITH ALL SIG PRECIP ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT THU                
MORNING...SAVE A FEW FLURRIES.                                                  
THUR AND FRIDAY...LOWS THUR AND FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE TRICKY. THUR             
LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DUE TO FAVORABLE POSITION OF SFC HIGH TO THE            
SE OF THE FA/CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER...LAKE CLOUDS WILL            
BE A FACTOR. TRIED TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE GRIDS. FRIDAY LOWS                    
WILL ALSO BE TRICKY AGAIN FOR SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT REASONS. EXPECTING             
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FA. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE A                            
FACTOR...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO              
INTENSIFY PER HEIGHT RISES. HAVE TRENDED LOW BOTH DAYS. BEST CHANCE             
FOR SUB ZERO TEMPS LOOKS TO BE THU AM IN CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FA             
WHERE SNOW COVER AND CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL             
BE SLOW TO RECOVER...ESPECIALLY THUR WHEN POOR MIXING PER WEAK FLOW             
AND SNOW COVER WILL HIGHLY LIMIT TEMPS. FRIDAY SHOULD SEE WARMER                
HIGHS...BUT WITH AN INCREASING LL INVERSION PER HEIGHT RISES/WAA                
MIXING WILL BE HIGHLY SUBDUED ONCE AGAIN.                                       
SATURDAY...RETAINED SHOWER MENTION WITH WEAK SW PROGGED UNDER WAA               
REGIME. THINKING FOG WILL BE A CONCERN WITH LL THETA-E ADVECTION                
INTENSIFYING OVER SNOW COVER. HAVE INCLUDED FOG MENTION THROUGH                 
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AM.                                                     
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. IMPRESSIVE WAA COUPED WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY              
FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO SOAR. MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SHIFT                  
WEST...ALLOWING PRECIP CHANCES TO DO THE SAME. THIS MAY ALSO ALLOW              
SOME SUN IF LOW STRATUS/MID CLOUD CAN BREAK. HAVE WARMED TEMPS TO               
THE 50S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S. WITH PROGGED CONDITIONS...WOULD               
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE 60S. HOWEVER...GIVEN TIME PERIOD AND                    
COLLAB...WILL NOT MAKE SUCH SWEEPING CHANCES AT THIS TIME.                      
MARINE...                                                                       
STRONG GRADIENT WINDS CLOSING IN ON OR SURPASSING GALES THIS                    
AFTERNOON...LARGE WAVES NEARING 12 TO 16 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE.                 
WITH THE VERY COLD TEMPS...WAVES AND STRONG WINDS LOCAL METHODS                 
SHOW FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY OVER THE LAKE THRU AT LEAST WEDNESDAY                
AFTERNOON. HAVE ISSUED FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FOR THE PERIOD THIS              
MORN INTO THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY.                                           
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR               
     INZ003>005-014.                                                            
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ006-             
     008-016.                                                                   
     SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/               
     WEDNESDAY FOR INZ007-009-012-013-015-017.                                  
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ077-078.              
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ079.             
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MIZ080>081.                  
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.           
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...SCHOTT                                                             
LONG TERM...CHAMBERLAIN                                                         
AVIATION/MARINE...SCHOTT                                                        
UPDATE...HOLSTEN                                                                
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
906 AM EST TUE JAN 1 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
FIERCE LAKE ENHANCED SNOWBAND CONTS TO DRIFT EWD...ALG A THREE                  
RIVERS...KENDALLVILLE...GRABIL LINE AND WAS DROPPING A QUICK 1-2                
INCHES WITH ITS PASSAGE. UPSTREAM...LL FLW VEERS IN RESPONSE TO STG             
ARCTIC STREAM SW DIGGING SEWD ACRS ERN IA W/STG CAA NOW SPREADING               
INLAND ACRS THE AREA AND LK AGGREGATE RESPONSE SEEN IN COMPOSITE                
LOOPS W/LK SUPERIOR PRECONDITIONING NOTED YIELDING A ENHANCED LK                
RESPONSE...AUGMENTED W/ADDNL SPRT ALOFT FM ARCTIC WAVE. SEE SOME                
PROBS W/CURRENT GRIDDED BREAKOUT...NAMELY CURRENT EXTENT OF ONGOING             
WARNING AREA AND MORESO RELEGATED W/HIGHER LK ENHANCED SNOW                     
POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS AFTN ON TOP OF STG SFC GRADIENT FLW. RUC13               
AND 06Z NAM/WRF SOLUTION WHILE PAINTING AN INCREASING DEEP LYR                  
SATURATED ASCENT INVOF OF MID LVL ARCTIC WAVE...ALSO ADAMANT ON STG             
CURVED LL ASCENT PLUME INLAND W/STG LL MSTR FLUX OF LK MICHIGAN.                
THIS PRESENTS A TWO-FOLD PROBLEM...MOST NOTABLY W/UNDERDONE SNOWFALL            
AMOUNTS DOWNSTREAM OF THE LAKE AND SECONDARY PROBLEM W/TIMING EXTENT            
OF INLAND WARNING AREA. IN THE ABSENCE OF 12Z GUIDANCE...WILL TAKE A            
MEASURED APPROACH AT THIS POINT AND SCALE SNOW AMOUNTS CONSIDERABLY             
BASED ON CONSENSUS 925MB PLUME ANALYSIS AND BACKING FLOW                        
TRAJECTORIES. THIS NECESSITATES EXTENDING THE WARNING ACRS                      
ST.JOE/LAGRANGE/NOBLE AND KOSCIUSKO COUNTIES UNTIL 23Z W/POTENTIAL              
TO EXTEND FURTHER IN TIME AND/OR RESHUFFLE AS SECONDARY LK                      
ENHANCEMENT AREA MATURES THIS AFTN PRIOR TO AFTN ZONE ISSUANCE.                 
REMAINDER OF GRIDS ON TRACK.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (12Z TAFS)...                                                         
MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS ACROSS THE REGION WILL THE BE LOW CIGS AND               
VSBYS...ALONG WITH THE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS THAT WILL DEVELOP                 
TODAY. LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY THRU MUCH OF THE                   
DAY...WITH CIGS NEAR 1K FEET AND VSBYS AROUND 1-3SM. THE NW                     
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL SEE CONTINUOUS LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH               
THE PERIOD...SCTD PERIODS OF SNOW ELSEWHERE.                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM EST TUE JAN 1 2008/                          
SHORT TERM (NEW YEARS DAY AND TONIGHT)...                                       
..HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE...                                            
BACK EDGE OF THE STRONG WINTER SYSTEM IS LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA              
INTO FAR NORTHERN OHIO/LAKE ERIE EARLY THIS MORNING. DEFORMATION                
BAND APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AS IT STARTS TO EXIT THE                  
REGION...MOVING ACROSS NW OHIO. LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS               
DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO NW INDIANA AND ACROSS EXTREME SW                     
MICHIGAN IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM. TEMPS HAVE HOVERED AROUND THE                
FREEZING MARK OR JUST BELOW FOR MUCH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...IT               
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS COLD AIR POISED TO THE NORTHWEST TO DRIVE                
INTO THE REGION TODAY. WILL FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE NAM12 WITH ITS                 
SOLID TRACK RECORD FOR DEALING WITH LES AND BETTER                              
RESOLUTION...AND HAS INITIALIZED WELL.                                          
LOW BECOMES NEARLY STACKED ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS                                
MORNING...DRIFTING FURTHER INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH                 
THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING FROM MN/WI THIS                      
AFTERNOON INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.                 
CAA CONTINUES THRU THE MORNING INTO THE AFTN AND EVEN. H850 TEMPS               
DROPPING TO CLOSE TO -13 OR -14C BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY                   
EVENING. DELTA T/S INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND BECOME                      
FAVORABLE BY LATE MORN/EARLY AFTN FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY LES SNOW.               
BEFORE THIS TIME DECENT BANDS OFF THE LAKE STILL ASSOCIATED WITH                
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF SNOW WELL INLAND FROM                
THE LAKE. AS MENTIONED ABOVE HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE NAM12 AND ITS              
925 OMEGA/STREAMLINE FIELDS TO LOOK FOR BEST AREA/AMOUNTS FOR LES.              
SHEAR IS LITTLE IF NOT NON-EXISTENT FOR THE MOST PART. STREAMLINES              
WOULD SUGGEST THAT A CONNECTION TO LAKE SUPERIOR MAYBE POSSIBLE                 
WHICH COULD ENHANCE THE BAND(S). THIS PATTERN STAYS IN PLACE THRU               
THE PERIOD...HAVE UPPED POPS IN THE NW FORECAST AREA TO HIGH END                
CATEGORICAL. ALSO AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PULLS THROUGH IT MAY                
HELP ENHANCED THE LIFT AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...WHILE BRINGING LIGHT              
ACCUMS AREAWIDE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.                                  
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH THE STRONG PRESS GRADIENT                  
ACROSS THE REGION SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND THE LARGE              
SFC HIGH (1045MB+) ACROSS THE PLAINS. 925 WINDS HOVER AROUND                    
30-35KNOTS THRU THE PERIOD AND WILL MIX DOWN WITH SOME MINOR LOSS               
AT BEST...GUSTS IN THE 35-40 MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE                     
TONIGHT PERIOD WHERE WINDS SEEM TO NOTCH A BIT HIGHER. BLOWING AND              
DRIFTING OF SNOW WILL AN SIGNIFICANT ISSUE.                                     
TEMPS WILL MOST LIKELY FALL THRU THE DAY...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE              
UPPER TEENS BY LATE TUES NIGHT OR EARLY WED...MAYBE SLIGHTLY WARMER             
CLOSER TO THE LAKE OR IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA              
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...                                         
..SIGNIFICANT WARM UP AHEAD...                                                  
LONG TERM FORECAST WILL FEATURE A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP LATE THIS                 
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LARGE SCALE RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN            
PACIFIC SHIFTS WEST UNDER A DEVELOPING NEGATIVE PNA REGIME. THIS                
WILL PROMOTE INTENSE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN US. MEANWHILE                   
MASSIVE RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN US IN RESPONSE TO                 
ROBUST WAA AND LARGE SCALE BLOCKING OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.                  
ENSEMBLE INDICES CONFIRM A LARGE POSITIVE SPIKE IN THE NAO PER                  
AFOREMENTIONED PROCESSES...WHICH COUPLED WITH A NEGATIVE PNA WILL               
SPELL A WARM PATTERN FOR THE REGION. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE                  
BEEN...AND CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THIS PATTERN SHIFT. IN FACT....BY              
MONDAY EVENING THE NAEFS PROGS H85 TEMPS AT 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS             
ABOVE CLIMO...IMPRESSIVE NONE THE LESS. BOTTOM LINE...HAVE CONTINUED            
TO WARM TEMPS SUNDAY AND BEYOND...WITH 50S NOW IN THE GRIDS BOTH                
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...STILL BELOW CURRENT PROGS.                                  
ON THE FRONT END OF THE PERIOD...HAVE INCREASED POPS WED MORNING                
PER LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL DUE TO FAVORABLE NORTH-SOUTH                     
FETCH/AGGREGATE PRECONDITIONING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR/MODERATE LAKE                
INDUCED CAPE VALUES OF NEARLY 400 J/KG/AND LOW SHEAR. NAM/WRF 925               
OMEGA FIELDS CONFIRM AN INTENSE POSITIVE VERTICAL MOTION COUPLET IN             
PLACE OVER BERRIEN AND ST. JOSEPH (IN) COUNTIES. LAKE SNOWS ARE                 
EXPECTED TO WAIN AS WINDS SHIFT WESTERLY DECREASING FETCH AND                   
INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY. HAVE RETAINED THIS SHIFT                 
NORTH IN THE GRIDS WITH ALL SIG PRECIP ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT THU                
MORNING...SAVE A FEW FLURRIES.                                                  
THUR AND FRIDAY...LOWS THUR AND FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE TRICKY. THUR             
LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DUE TO FAVORABLE POSITION OF SFC HIGH TO THE            
SE OF THE FA/CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER...LAKE CLOUDS WILL            
BE A FACTOR. TRIED TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE GRIDS. FRIDAY LOWS                    
WILL ALSO BE TRICKY AGAIN FOR SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT REASONS. EXPECTING             
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FA. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE A                            
FACTOR...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO              
INTENSIFY PER HEIGHT RISES. HAVE TRENDED LOW BOTH DAYS. BEST CHANCE             
FOR SUB ZERO TEMPS LOOKS TO BE THU AM IN CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FA             
WHERE SNOW COVER AND CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL             
BE SLOW TO RECOVER...ESPECIALLY THUR WHEN POOR MIXING PER WEAK FLOW             
AND SNOW COVER WILL HIGHLY LIMIT TEMPS. FRIDAY SHOULD SEE WARMER                
HIGHS...BUT WITH AN INCREASING LL INVERSION PER HEIGHT RISES/WAA                
MIXING WILL BE HIGHLY SUBDUED ONCE AGAIN.                                       
SATURDAY...RETAINED SHOWER MENTION WITH WEAK SW PROGGED UNDER WAA               
REGIME. THINKING FOG WILL BE A CONCERN WITH LL THETA-E ADVECTION                
INTENSIFYING OVER SNOW COVER. HAVE INCLUDED FOG MENTION THROUGH                 
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AM.                                                     
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. IMPRESSIVE WAA COUPED WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY              
FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO SOAR. MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SHIFT                  
WEST...ALLOWING PRECIP CHANCES TO DO THE SAME. THIS MAY ALSO ALLOW              
SOME SUN IF LOW STRATUS/MID CLOUD CAN BREAK. HAVE WARMED TEMPS TO               
THE 50S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S. WITH PROGGED CONDITIONS...WOULD               
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE 60S. HOWEVER...GIVEN TIME PERIOD AND                    
COLLAB...WILL NOT MAKE SUCH SWEEPING CHANCES AT THIS TIME.                      
MARINE...                                                                       
STRONG GRADIENT WINDS CLOSING IN ON OR SURPASSING GALES THIS                    
AFTERNOON...LARGE WAVES NEARING 12 TO 16 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE.                 
WITH THE VERY COLD TEMPS...WAVES AND STRONG WINDS LOCAL METHODS                 
SHOW FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY OVER THE LAKE THRU AT LEAST WEDNESDAY                
AFTERNOON. HAVE ISSUED FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FOR THE PERIOD THIS              
MORN INTO THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY.                                           
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR               
     INZ003>005-014.                                                            
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ006-             
     008-016.                                                                   
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST /11 AM CST/ TODAY FOR                  
     INZ007-012-013-015>017.                                                    
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ077-078.              
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ079.             
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MIZ080>081.                  
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.           
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...SCHOTT                                                             
LONG TERM...CHAMBERLAIN                                                         
AVIATION/MARINE...SCHOTT                                                        
UPDATE...HOLSTEN                                                                
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
1159 AM CST TUE JAN 1 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
ADDITIONAL OF 18Z TAF DISCUSSION.                                               
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MORNING FCST UPDATE WAS MAINLY TO BETTER TARGET SNOW AND BLOWING                
SNOW AREAS IN ERN SECTIONS.  ALTHOUGH VSBYS ARE DROPPING TO LESS                
THAN A MILE AT GGI/OTM...DID NOT FEEL DURATION WAS SUFFICIENT TO                
ISSUE HEADLINE.  SHRT WV IS CROSSING MS RIVER AND RADAR TRENDS                  
INDICATE THAT ANY ADVY LEVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD END AS FORCING LIFTS             
OFF TO THE EAST.  UPSTREAM SFC OBS AND WEBCAMS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH             
IN THE WAY OF BLOWING SNOW AFTER SNOW ENDS.                                     
ALSO LOWERED TEMPS/DEWPOINTS TO FIT CURRENT CONDITIONS.  12Z RUC AND            
LATEST GFS LAMP GUIDANCE FITS REALITY BEST AND SUPPORTS THINKING OF             
STEADY OR SLOWING FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  NO WIND                 
CHILL ADVY AS OF YET.  AFTERNOON READINGS WILL HOVER AROUND -20                 
CRITERIA...BUT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL RE-EXAMINATION OF FCST FOR                   
TONIGHT WHEN IT MAY BE MORE SIGNIFICANT.                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...01/18Z                                                              
MAIN FOCUS OF 18Z TERMINAL SET WAS MAGNITUDE OF VSBY AND CIG                    
RESTRICTIONS.  MANY SITES REPORTING IFR VSBYS AND CIGS BUT THIS                 
SEEMS OVERDONE JUDGING FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LOCAL                 
WEBCAMS...ESPECIALLY THE CIGS.  WEBCAMS SHOW NO EVIDENCE OF                     
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW OR STRATUS IN MOST INSTANCES...AND CAN SEE             
THROUGH TO RIVERS OVER MUCH OF IA IN VISIBLE IMAGERY.  ASOS/AWOS                
LIKELY OVER-REPORTING STRATUS DUE TO BLOWING SNOW AND ELEVATED ICE              
CRYSTALS.  THUS DID NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF CIGS AND KEPT VSBYS              
LOW END MVFR.  GUSTY NWLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVE                    
HOURS...BUT DIMINISH AFTER THAT TIME LESSENING PROBLEMS WITH BLOWING            
SNOW.  MODELS SHOW PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT...BUT DID               
NOT ADD ANY ADDITIONAL STRATUS FOR NOW WITH LITTLE EVIDENCE                     
UPSTREAM.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BSS                                                                             
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
1001 AM CST TUE JAN 1 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MORNING FCST UPDATE WAS MAINLY TO BETTER TARGET SNOW AND BLOWING                
SNOW AREAS IN ERN SECTIONS.  ALTHOUGH VSBYS ARE DROPPING TO LESS                
THAN A MILE AT GGI/OTM...DID NOT FEEL DURATION WAS SUFFICIENT TO                
ISSUE HEADLINE.  SHRT WV IS CROSSING MS RIVER AND RADAR TRENDS                  
INDICATE THAT ANY ADVY LEVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD END AS FORCING LIFTS             
OFF TO THE EAST.  UPSTREAM SFC OBS AND WEBCAMS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH             
IN THE WAY OF BLOWING SNOW AFTER SNOW ENDS.                                     
ALSO LOWERED TEMPS/DEWPOINTS TO FIT CURRENT CONDITIONS.  12Z RUC AND            
LATEST GFS LAMP GUIDANCE FITS REALITY BEST AND SUPPORTS THINKING OF             
STEADY OR SLOWING FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  NO WIND                 
CHILL ADVY AS OF YET.  AFTERNOON READINGS WILL HOVER AROUND -20                 
CRITERIA...BUT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL RE-EXAMINATION OF FCST FOR                   
TONIGHT WHEN IT MAY BE MORE SIGNIFICANT.                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...01/12Z UPDATE                                                       
MAIN FORECAST ISSUES CONTINUE TO BE CEILINGS AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE              
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN LOW OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS                 
THROUGH MIDDAY WHEN STRONG H500 LOW BEGINS TO EXIT THE AREA TO THE              
EAST. BREAKS IN THE CLOUD DECK AND VARIABLE CIGS DOT THE REGION                 
EARLY TODAY AND WILL SEE THAT FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH THE MORNING             
HOURS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MORNING AS BROADER SCALE              
FORCING MOVES OVER AREA BETWEEN THROUGH 15Z...WITH BEST FORCING                 
NORTHEAST AND EAST SITES. SHOULD SEE FAIRLY STEADY LIGHT SNOW WITH              
PERIODS OF VSBY IN IFR RANGE AT KOTM. DEEPER RH WANES AFT                       
12Z...BUT FLURRIES AND SOME BLSN WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF            
THE DAY. BLSN WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE AS WINDS PICK UP AFT 12Z                    
TUES...GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 30KT...ESPECIALLY AT KOTM WHERE FRESH               
SNOW FELL YESTERDAY.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
REV/BSS                                                                         
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
1038 PM MST MON DEC 31 2007                                                     
.AVIATION...BAND OF LOWER CLOUDS AND FLURRIES HAS REACHED KIML.                 
HAVE PLACED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KMCK THROUGH 09Z BASED ON TIMING                 
THE ADVECTION OF THESE FEATURES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT                
KGLD.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...16Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS                         
INDICATED LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS...WITH RIDGING               
JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. 12Z RAOB DATA INDICATED A FEW 150KT JET                
STREAKS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW AT H3 WITH ONE LOCATED ACROSS                      
SOUTHERN COLORADO AND ANOTHER ALONG THE EAST COAST. STRONG                      
GRADIENT AT H7 WAS NOTED WITH -15C OBSERVED AT KDDC AND -6C AT                  
KLMN...WHICH LINED UP FAIRLY WELL WITH AREA OF CLOUDS THIS                      
MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT WAS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE               
CWA AND WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS.                                       
OVERALL MODELS INITIALIZED WELL ACROSS THE AREA AND DIFFERENCES WITH            
LARGE SCALE FEATURES APPEAR MINIMAL BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS              
AT THIS TIME.                                                                   
TONIGHT...FIRST CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE POTENTIAL...IF                   
ANY...FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE                  
EVENING. KLBF SOUNDINGS SHOW FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER A GOOD               
DEPTH OF THE SOUNDING...WITH THETA-E LAPSE RATES BETWEEN H6 AND H5              
AROUND 0. GFS SHIFTS THIS POCKET OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY TO THE                
SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN FRINGE OF COUNTIES. IT IS INTERESTING THAT                
LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP ENOUGH THAT WARMING THE SURFACE TO THE LOWER              
30S WOULD BEGIN TO SUPPORT SFC BASED CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH IT WOULD             
BE VERY WEAK. ALTHOUGH STABILITY PROFILES LOOK FAVORABLE...FORCING              
APPEARS ABSENT AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY DROPPING                  
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WILL NOT BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA UNTIL AROUND              
06Z AND MUCH OF THE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND                 
EAST. PLAN TO MONITOR TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MAKING ANY FINAL             
CALL ON PRECIP POTENTIAL.                                                       
OTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE WIND/TEMPS AND RESULTING WIND                 
CHILLS. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...STABILITY AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH IS             
FAIRLY LOW AND SHOULD SEE A DECENT SURFACE RESPONSE AS TROUGH                   
APPROACHES. CONSENSUS OF RUC/NAM/GFS ALL KEEP WINDS UP THROUGH THE              
NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WINDS STAYING UP ALL NIGHT MAY             
ALSO BE WHAT LIMITS WIND CHILL POTENTIAL AS WELL. WEST NORTHWESTERLY            
WINDS WILL KEEP LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED SOMEWHAT PREVENTING                  
STRONG DECOUPLING. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE OFF THE SNOWPACK WHICH MAY            
OFFSET THINGS...BUT ALL IN ALL EXPECT A SIMILAR DIURNAL SWING TO                
LAST NIGHT. CURRENT MIN TEMP THOUGHTS SEE THE WESTERN HALF OF                   
COLORADO COUNTIES GET TO -13 TO -17 WIND CHILLS...MAINLY ACROSS THE             
WESTERN HALF OF EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH THINGS ARE                  
MARGINAL...THINK A SHORT WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE MORNING IS IN              
ORDER.                                                                          
NEW YEARS DAY/EVENING...SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO THE SOUTH            
AND EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS LARGE SCALE RIDGING            
AND SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO THE AREA. MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD                
WILL BE WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. CWA...ESPECIALLY EASTERN             
CWA WILL HAVE STRONG HEIGHT/TEMP GRADIENT BETWEEN BUILDING RIDGE AND            
DEPARTING TROUGH...RESULTING IN AN AXIS STRONG WINDS ALOFT ACROSS               
THE AREA. MODELS DIFFER IN THE ACTUAL STRENGTH OF THE WINDS WITH NAM            
THE WEAKEST...GFS THE STRONGEST AND RUC IN THE MIDDLE. WOULD TEND TO            
FAVOR THE GFS AS IT HAS SEEMED TO PERFORM WELL LATELY SO WILL LEAN              
MORE IN THIS DIRECTION. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST             
SHOW VERY WEAK SFC BASED INVERSION IN PLACE DURING THE MORNING DUE              
TO DEEP CAA BEHIND SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND SUPPORT GUSTS AROUND 40KTS            
AND POSSIBLY SUSTAINED WINDS APPROACHING 28-30KTS AROUND 18Z. SINCE             
OTHER MODELS ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WINDS...WILL HEDGE BACK A           
BIT FROM THE GFS AND NOT ISSUE ANY KIND OF WIND ADVISORY BUT WILL               
HAVE GRIDS NEARING ADVISORY VALUES IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.                      
SREF/NAM/GFS ALL CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHARP GRADIENT IN MAX TEMPS                 
ACROSS THE CWA...WITH COOLEST TEMPS ACTUALLY IN THE WARMER AIR MASS.            
GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WARMING ALOFT MAY BE TOO STRONG OUT              
WEST...PREVENTING MUCH OF A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER TO DEVELOP.             
WITH REMAINING SNOW COVER THERE THAT MAY NOT BE UNREASONABLE...BUT              
WITH CHANGING AIRMASSES BUMPED UP TEMPS A BIT IN THE WEST. OUT                  
EAST...DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD OFFSET COLDER TEMPS ALOFT             
AND THINK MAX TEMPS TOMORROW SHOULD ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER                
THAN TODAY.                                                                     
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE DIFFICULT SIDE AS MODELS A             
BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IN THE WARMER AIR WITH AMPLIFYING               
RIDGE. THINK THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE PRETTY OPTIMAL FOR                         
COOLING...BUT AM UNSURE ON THE IMPACT THE WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL                 
HAVE. KEPT THE GENERAL IDEA OF PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT WARMED TEMPS               
SLIGHTLY.                                                                       
WED-THUR...LARGE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA LEADING             
TO CONTINUED WARMING AND SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK SHORT               
WAVE TROUGH SLIDES ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ON THURSDAY                 
WHICH SHOULD BRING LITTLE MORE THAN INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE                
AREA...AS POINT SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERY STRONG AND DRY SUBSIDENCE             
INVERSION ACROSS THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND THROUGH            
THE PERIOD...TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY UNCERTAINTY OF SNOWCOVER IMPACTS.             
.EXTENDED (FRIDAY-MONDAY)...EC AND OPERATIONAL GFS IN GENERAL                   
AGREEMENT ON THE MEAN FLOW PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE            
ARE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THEM IN TERMS OF STRENGTH AND TIMING             
OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SET TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE             
EXTENDED. WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE TWO FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.            
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ON FRIDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH STARTS TO                
AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. WITH DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE              
SURFACE AND ALOFT AND H85 TEMPS APPROACHING +10C...FRIDAY MAX TEMPS             
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S SEEM REASONABLE. HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPS                
GOING OVER THE COLORADO COUNTIES AS I FEEL FAIRLY CERTAIN THERE WILL            
BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL SNOWPACK TO HOLD TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES THERE.             
FIRST IN THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA             
LATE SATURDAY BUT SHOULD BRING LITTLE MORE THAN A CHANGE IN WIND                
DIRECTION AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOR SUNDAY. GFS IS BRINGING THE             
SECOND ONE IN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING BUT FEEL IT MAY BE A              
LITTLE TOO PROGRESSIVE. WENT WITH THE SLOWER EC SOLUTION KEEPING                
PRECIP OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW.                                                
FOR MONDAY...CURSORY GLANCE AT THE 12Z GFS SHOWS A POTENTIAL WINTER             
STORM FOR THE AREA. 295K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWING STRONG UPGLIDE              
AND ADVECTION OF 6-8 G/KG MIXING RATIOS. THIS IS MORE IN LINE IN                
TERMS OF TIMING WITH THE 00Z/31 EC WHICH SHOWS A SIMILAR SOLUTION               
BUT KEEPS BEST FORCING...AND THEREFORE PRECIP...JUST TO THE NORTHWEST           
OF THE CWA. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AND POSSIBLY INTRODUCE PRECIP             
IN THE NEAR FUTURE IF THE MODELS COME INTO CONSENSUS. REGARDLESS OF             
PRECIP...MONDAY MAX TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH H85 TEMPS OF                 
AROUND -3 TO -5C.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ090>092.          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MENTZER                                                                         
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
1230 AM EST WED JAN 2 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN INDIANA AND                       
CENTRAL KENTUCKY WITH VISIBILITIES IN HEAVIER SHOWERS DIPPING BELOW             
ONE MILE AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY WHEN SNOW FALLING COMBINES WITH                  
ONGOING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THOUGH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE                
BEEN UNDER 0.05 INCHES AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN ON THE LIGHT            
SIDE (GENERALLY 1/2 INCH OR LESS)...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW CONTINUES             
TO CAUSE ICY TRAVEL CONDITIONS...WITH MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE                 
EASTERN ZONES REPORTING ACCIDENTS DUE TO ICE ON ROADWAYS.                       
CALLS TO LAW ENFORCEMENT IN LOCATIONS WEST AND NORTHWEST OF                     
LOUISVILLE INDICATED THAT CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOW OR ICY ROADS ARE               
CAUSING PROBLEMS AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF DUBOIS               
COUNTY INDIANA AND WEST CENTRAL KENTUCKY. WILL BE EXPANDING THE SNOW            
ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE REMAINING LMK INDIANA COUNTIES AND SEVERAL              
ADDITIONAL KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDING LARUE COUNTY WEST/NORTHWEST              
TO HANCOCK COUNTY AND POINTS NORTH..  WILL KEEP TIMING OF ADVISORY              
WITH REMAINING ZONES AND HAVE ENDING TIME AT 7AM EST/6AM CST.                   
THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...AND ARE DEVELOPING                  
ALONG AN AREA OF VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT THE MODELS               
ARE INDICATING IS IN PLACE FROM EXTREME EASTERN ILLINOIS SOUTHWEST              
THROUGH SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THESE HIT OR MISS ON             
AGAIN/OFF AGAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST UNTIL THIS AREA OF               
INSTABILITY MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL GRADUALLY OCCUR IN THE            
NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES AND IN 6 TO 9 HOURS             
IN THE EASTERN ZONES. LITTLE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE CONTENT WILL FALL              
WITH THESE SNOW SHOWERS...BUT AN ADDITIONAL .5 OR MORE WILL BE                  
POSSIBLE...WITH SOME HIGHER ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY THE                 
FURTHER YOU GO EAST OVERNIGHT AS SNOW WILL CONTINUE THERE MUCH                  
LONGER THAN IN THE WEST.                                                        
WILL BE ISSUING UPDATED WSW AND OTHER PRODUCTS SHORTLY.                         
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...                                          
MAIN CONCERNS ARE ARCTIC COLD AIR SETTLING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT            
AND TUESDAY. OF EQUAL CONCERN IS THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT.            
THE LAST RUC AND NAM CONTINUED TO INDICATE THAT THE SECOND SHORT                
WAVE THAT IS BRINGING THE REALLY COLD AIR TO OUR REGION WILL MOVE               
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT. THEN TO... THERE              
ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN LOW LEVEL RH FEEDING INTO THE             
BACK SIDE OF THIS TROUGH. SO SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE FOR           
A TIME TONIGHT.                                                                 
SO WE ARE GOING TO CONTINUE TO GO WITH THE PREVIOUS FCST TRENDS                 
AS REGARDS THE ISSUANCE OF A WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW ACROSS THE               
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF OUR REGION. POSSIBLE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM               
AROUND ONE INCH ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS OF OUR AREA INCLUDING                   
SDF AND 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS INCLUDING                   
LEXINGTON.                                                                      
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION DEFINED THIS SCENARIO QUITE WELL:                       
"1 TO 2 INCHES NEAR LEXINGTON AND COUNTIES SURROUNDING. FROM THIS               
AREA WEST TO WASHINGTON COUNTY INDIANA...LOUISVILLE SOUTH TO CLINTON            
WILL GO AROUND AN INCH AND ISSUE A SNOW ADVISORY WITH THIS BEING THE            
FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOW OF THE SEASON AND WITH COLD TEMPERATURES AND             
A WORK DAY HAVING A BIGGER IMPACT ON TRAVEL.".                                  
HOWEVER...SINCE THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS A                
GOOD PORTION OF OUR FA...WE WILL START THE ADVISORY AT 4 PM INSTEAD             
OF 7 PM.                                                                        
GUSTY WINDS A BIT OF A PROBLEM TOO BUT SHOULD DIMINISH INTO THE                 
15 TO 25 MPH RANGE AND NOT BE A MAJOR PROBLEM.                                  
MAX AND MIN TEMP TRENDS IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT FCST.                          
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                 
AN EMPHATIC PATTERN CHANGE WILL BEGIN THURSDAY. BY THE                          
WEEKEND...MOIST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY WARM                    
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED MOISTURE ALL THE WAY FROM THE WESTERN                
GULF TO THE GREAT LAKES.                                                        
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...                                               
A VERY DEEP AND COLD FULL LATITUDE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE            
FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST TO WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC. 500MB HEIGHTS             
WILL RISE DRAMATICALLY AS ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL START              
TO FLOOD THE EAST HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH MILDER PACIFIC AIR.                  
AT THE SURFACE...MASSIVE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER MISSOURI LATE                
WEDNESDAY (1045MB) WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY            
FRIDAY AND PARK ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY.              
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT LATE WEDNESDAY AND SWITCH TO THE              
SOUTH BY EARLY FRIDAY. LINGERING LOW CLOUDS WILL EXIT THE BLUEGRASS             
REGION EARLY THURSDAY AND EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY AND                
FRIDAY. AFTER A COLD START THURSDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL                 
SLOWLY MODERATE. BY FRIDAY...HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND TO SEASONAL                   
NORMS.                                                                          
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...                                                     
RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE BROAD LONGWAVE UPPER AIR PATTERN              
THIS PERIOD WITH GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF...THE OPERATIONAL             
GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES. A SERIES OF STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN            
STATES AND WILL EVENTUALLY CARVE A DEEP LONG-LIVED TROUGH ACROSS THE            
ROCKIES BY MONDAY. ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE EAST AND THE LOWER OHIO                
VALLEY WILL BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE                    
DEEPENING WESTERN TROUGH.                                                       
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LEE TROUGHING EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND                 
STILL STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CREATE A               
BROAD AREA OF PRETTY DECENT SOUTHWEST FLOW THAT WILL REALLY BRING A             
SURGE OF MILD AIR NORTH ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS GRADIENT SHOULD                 
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS THE WESTERN TROUGH DEEPENS IN PLACE.               
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY...AND SHOULD WARM                
EVEN FARTHER FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS TIME OF YEAR...WARM               
AIR ADVECTION IS FREQUENTLY ACCOMPANIED BY EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AS              
MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE CONDENSES AS AIR IS COOLED ON ITS WAY NORTH.             
INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME...BUT MOISTURE                
WILL FIRST ARRIVE ON SATURDAY ACCORDING TO BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE               
GFS. HAVE NOT CHANGED ONGOING FORECAST OF AT LEAST A CHANCE OF                  
SHOWERS EACH DAY FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (06Z TAFS)...                                                         
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT 6 HOURS              
WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY IN HEAVIER SHOWERS               
FOR KSDF. STEADIER SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE BLUEGRASS REGION                     
OVERNIGHT INCLUDING KLEX WITH IFR CONDS THRU THE MORNING. GUSTY WNW             
WINDS WILL PERSIST TIL LATE IN THE PERIOD.                                      
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR            
     KYZ023>025-028>043-045>049-053>057-065>067-077-078-082.                    
IN...SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR                       
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE.......MACZKO                                                             
SHORT TERM...21                                                                 
LONG TERM....JSD                                                                
AVIATION.....11                                                                 
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
606 PM EST TUE JAN 1 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...                                          
MAIN CONCERNS ARE ARCTIC COLD AIR SETTLING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT            
AND TUESDAY. OF EQUAL CONCERN IS THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT.            
THE LAST RUC AND NAM CONTINUED TO INDICATE THAT THE SECOND SHORT                
WAVE THAT IS BRINGING THE REALLY COLD AIR TO OUR REGION WILL MOVE               
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT. THEN TO... THERE              
ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN LOW LEVEL RH FEEDING INTO THE             
BACK SIDE OF THIS TROUGH. SO SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE FOR           
A TIME TONIGHT.                                                                 
SO WE ARE GOING TO CONTINUE TO GO WITH THE PREVIOUS FCST TRENDS                 
AS REGARDS THE ISSUANCE OF A WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW ACROSS THE               
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF OUR REGION. POSSIBLE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM               
AROUND ONE INCH ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS OF OUR AREA INCLUDING                   
SDF AND 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS INCLUDING                   
LEXINGTON.                                                                      
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION DEFINED THIS SCENARIO QUITE WELL:                       
"1 TO 2 INCHES NEAR LEXINGTON AND COUNTIES SURROUNDING. FROM THIS               
AREA WEST TO WASHINGTON COUNTY INDIANA...LOUISVILLE SOUTH TO CLINTON            
WILL GO AROUND AN INCH AND ISSUE A SNOW ADVISORY WITH THIS BEING THE            
FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOW OF THE SEASON AND WITH COLD TEMPERATURES AND             
A WORK DAY HAVING A BIGGER IMPACT ON TRAVEL.".                                  
HOWEVER...SINCE THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS A                
GOOD PORTION OF OUR FA...WE WILL START THE ADVISORY AT 4 PM INSTEAD             
OF 7 PM.                                                                        
GUSTY WINDS A BIT OF A PROBLEM TOO BUT SHOULD DIMINISH INTO THE                 
15 TO 25 MPH RANGE AND NOT BE A MAJOR PROBLEM.                                  
MAX AND MIN TEMP TRENDS IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT FCST.                          
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                 
AN EMPHATIC PATTERN CHANGE WILL BEGIN THURSDAY. BY THE                          
WEEKEND...MOIST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY WARM                    
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED MOISTURE ALL THE WAY FROM THE WESTERN                
GULF TO THE GREAT LAKES.                                                        
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...                                               
A VERY DEEP AND COLD FULL LATITUDE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE            
FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST TO WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC. 500MB HEIGHTS             
WILL RISE DRAMATICALLY AS ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL START              
TO FLOOD THE EAST HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH MILDER PACIFIC AIR.                  
AT THE SURFACE...MASSIVE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER MISSOURI LATE                
WEDNESDAY (1045MB) WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY            
FRIDAY AND PARK ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY.              
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT LATE WEDNESDAY AND SWITCH TO THE              
SOUTH BY EARLY FRIDAY. LINGERING LOW CLOUDS WILL EXIT THE BLUEGRASS             
REGION EARLY THURSDAY AND EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY AND                
FRIDAY. AFTER A COLD START THURSDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL                 
SLOWLY MODERATE. BY FRIDAY...HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND TO SEASONAL                   
NORMS.                                                                          
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...                                                     
RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE BROAD LONGWAVE UPPER AIR PATTERN              
THIS PERIOD WITH GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF...THE OPERATIONAL             
GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES. A SERIES OF STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN            
STATES AND WILL EVENTUALLY CARVE A DEEP LONG-LIVED TROUGH ACROSS THE            
ROCKIES BY MONDAY. ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE EAST AND THE LOWER OHIO                
VALLEY WILL BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE                    
DEEPENING WESTERN TROUGH.                                                       
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LEE TROUGHING EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND                 
STILL STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CREATE A               
BROAD AREA OF PRETTY DECENT SOUTHWEST FLOW THAT WILL REALLY BRING A             
SURGE OF MILD AIR NORTH ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS GRADIENT SHOULD                 
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS THE WESTERN TROUGH DEEPENS IN PLACE.               
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY...AND SHOULD WARM                
EVEN FARTHER FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS TIME OF YEAR...WARM               
AIR ADVECTION IS FREQUENTLY ACCOMPANIED BY EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AS              
MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE CONDENSES AS AIR IS COOLED ON ITS WAY NORTH.             
INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME...BUT MOISTURE                
WILL FIRST ARRIVE ON SATURDAY ACCORDING TO BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE               
GFS. HAVE NOT CHANGED ONGOING FORECAST OF AT LEAST A CHANCE OF                  
SHOWERS EACH DAY FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (00Z TAFS)...                                                         
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT 6 HOURS              
WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.              
GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST AS WELL AND LEAD TO SOME REDUCTION OF                  
VISIBILITIES IN LIGHTER SHOWERS AS WELL.  GUSTS OF AROUND 25KTS                 
SHOULD BE ABOUT AS STRONG AS THE WINDS GET ON A REGULAR BASIS...BUT             
ISOLATED GUSTS TO 30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT LEAST THROUGH 12Z WED.              
MORE ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z                     
WED...THOUGH REDUCTIONS IN VIS SHOULD BE LIMITED. GUSTY WINDS WILL              
PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.                                          
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR            
     KYZ029>043-045>049-054>057-065>067-077-078-082.                            
IN...SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR                       
     INZ077>079-091-092.                                                        
&&                                                                              
SHORT TERM...21                                                                 
LONG TERM....JSD                                                                
AVIATION.....MACZKO                                                             
$$                                                                              
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
253 PM EST TUE JAN 1 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY):...                                         
MAIN CONCERNS ARE ARCTIC COLD AIR SETTLING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT            
AND TUESDAY. OF EQUAL CONCERN IS THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT.            
THE LAST RUC AND NAM CONTINUED TO INDICATE THAT THE SECOND SHORT                
WAVE THAT IS BRINGING THE REALLY COLD AIR TO OUR REGION WILL MOVE               
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT. THEN TO... THERE              
ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN LOW LEVEL RH FEEDING INTO THE             
BACK SIDE OF THIS TROUGH. SO SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE FOR           
A TIME TONIGHT.                                                                 
SO WE ARE GOING TO CONTINUE TO GO WITH THE PREVIOUS FCST TRENDS                 
AS REGARDS THE ISSUANCE OF A WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW ACROSS THE               
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF OUR REGION. POSSIBLE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM               
AROUND ONE INCH ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS OF OUR AREA INCLUDING                   
SDF AND 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS INCLUDING                   
LEXINGTON.                                                                      
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION DEFINED THIS SCENARIO QUITE WELL:                       
"1 TO 2 INCHES NEAR LEXINGTON AND COUNTIES SURROUNDING. FROM THIS               
AREA WEST TO WASHINGTON COUNTY INDIANA...LOUISVILLE SOUTH TO CLINTON            
WILL GO AROUND AN INCH AND ISSUE A SNOW ADVISORY WITH THIS BEING THE            
FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOW OF THE SEASON AND WITH COLD TEMPERATURES AND             
A WORK DAY HAVING A BIGGER IMPACT ON TRAVEL.".                                  
HOWEVER...SINCE THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS A                
GOOD PORTION OF OUR FA...WE WILL START THE ADVISORY AT 4 PM INSTEAD             
OF 7 PM.                                                                        
GUSTY WINDS A BIT OF A PROBLEM TOO BUT SHOULD DIMINISH INTO THE                 
15 TO 25 MPH RANGE AND NOT BE A MAJOR PROBLEM.                                  
MAX AND MIN TEMP TRENDS IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT FCST.                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                 
AN EMPHATIC PATTERN CHANGE WILL BEGIN THURSDAY. BY THE                          
WEEKEND...MOIST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY WARM                    
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED MOISTURE ALL THE WAY FROM THE WESTERN                
GULF TO THE GREAT LAKES.                                                        
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...                                               
A VERY DEEP AND COLD FULL LATITUDE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE            
FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST TO WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC. 500MB HEIGHTS             
WILL RISE DRAMATICALLY AS ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL START              
TO FLOOD THE EAST HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH MILDER PACIFIC AIR.                  
AT THE SURFACE...MASSIVE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER MISSOURI LATE                
WEDNESDAY (1045MB) WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY            
FRIDAY AND PARK ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY.              
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT LATE WEDNESDAY AND SWITCH TO THE              
SOUTH BY EARLY FRIDAY. LINGERING LOW CLOUDS WILL EXIT THE BLUEGRASS             
REGION EARLY THURSDAY AND EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY AND                
FRIDAY. AFTER A COLD START THURSDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL                 
SLOWLY MODERATE. BY FRIDAY...HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND TO SEASONAL                   
NORMS.                                                                          
.SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...                                                    
RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE BROAD LONGWAVE UPPER AIR PATTERN              
THIS PERIOD WITH GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF...THE OPERATIONAL             
GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES. A SERIES OF STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN            
STATES AND WILL EVENTUALLY CARVE A DEEP LONG-LIVED TROUGH ACROSS THE            
ROCKIES BY MONDAY. ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE EAST AND THE LOWER OHIO                
VALLEY WILL BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE                    
DEEPENING WESTERN TROUGH.                                                       
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LEE TROUGHING EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND                 
STILL STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CREATE A               
BROAD AREA OF PRETTY DECENT SOUTHWEST FLOW THAT WILL REALLY BRING A             
SURGE OF MILD AIR NORTH ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS GRADIENT SHOULD                 
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS THE WESTERN TROUGH DEEPENS IN PLACE.               
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY...AND SHOULD WARM                
EVEN FARTHER FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS TIME OF YEAR...WARM               
AIR ADVECTION IS FREQUENTLY ACCOMPANIED BY EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AS              
MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE CONDENSES AS AIR IS COOLED ON ITS WAY NORTH.             
INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME...BUT MOISTURE                
WILL FIRST ARRIVE ON SATURDAY ACCORDING TO BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE               
GFS. HAVE NOT CHANGED ONGOING FORECAST OF AT LEAST A CHANCE OF                  
SHOWERS EACH DAY FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (18Z TAFS)...                                                         
COLD AND SOMEWHAT MOIST ARCTIC AIR CONT TO PUSH SEWD ACROSS REGION              
THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. COLD 500 MB TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS NERN                
HALF OF REGION TONIGHT AND BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF SW- OR S- WITH            
AT LEAST MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS...SOME BRIEF IFR CONDS POSSIBLE TOO FOR            
A TIME TONIGHT IF THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS CLOSE ENOUGH TO SDF AND LEX              
TO AUGMENT THE SNOW POTENTIAL A BIT. AT THIS TIME WILL GO WI MVFR               
CIGS BECMG LOW MVFR CONDS FOR AT LEAST SDF AND LEX WITH SW- ESPY                
AFT 00Z TONIGHT AND THEN IMP CONDS BY 12 ON WED. WITH STRONG                    
PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY RELAXING A BIT WITH RELAX THE GUSTS IN              
TAFS TOO LATER TONIGHT. --21                                                    
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...SNOW ADVISORY FROM 4 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST            
     /6 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ029>043-045>049-054>057-065>067-               
     077-078-082.                                                               
IN...SNOW ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR             
     INZ077>079-091-092.                                                        
&&                                                                              
SHORT TERM...21                                                                 
LONG TERM....JSD                                                                
AVIATION.....21                                                                 
$$                                                                              
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME                                             
937 AM EST WED JAN 2 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY                   
ALLOWING COLD ARCTIC AIR TO FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM ON BRISK NORTHERLY               
WINDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES                         
ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...THE RETURN FLOW WILL                 
RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR THE REGION BEGINNING OVER THE             
WEEKEND.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
SNOW HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION XPCT FAR E                  
CENTRAL AREAS BUT XPCT THIS TO OCCUR THESE AREAS AS WELL OVER THE               
NXT HR OR TWO AS WELL. AS A RESULT...HAVE DROPPED THE REMAINING HVY             
SNOW WARNINGS AND SNOW ADVS. HAVE ISSUED A BLSN ADV ENTIRE FA AS                
BRISK NNW WNDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH AT TIMES WILL                
CAUSE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.                                   
LOW PRESSURE OVER YARMOUTH NOVA SCOTIA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL                  
CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD TODAY BRINGING SNOW TO AN END FROM WEST              
TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING. RUC MODEL INDICATES INTENSE              
SNOW BAND BETWEEN HOULTON AND DOVER- FOXCROFT SHOULD START TO WIND              
DOWN THIS MORNING AND SLOWLY MOVE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. SNOW HAS                  
TAPERED TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS DOWNEAST SECTIONS SO WILL DROP                   
WARNING THERE BUT WILL LEAVE OTHER HEADLINES UP UNTIL 10 AM SINCE               
SNOW STILL OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS. ALL                  
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SNOW SHOULD PULL OUT OF THE STATE                 
LATER THIS MORNING WITH SUN FOR MOST AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.                
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY UNDER A                   
BRISK NORTHWEST WIND. EXPECT AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW                 
ACROSS THE STATE TODAY EXCEPT ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS WHERE HEAVY                
WET SNOW WILL BE HARD TO BLOW. WITH WIND DIRECTION MORE NORTH THAN              
WEST, MOST VULNERABLE ROADS TO BLOWING SNOW WILL BE ONES ORIENTED               
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH                      
CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST                  
WINDS AND TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO MAY CREATE WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS              
20 BELOW OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS WHICH WOULD RESULT IN ADVISORY                  
CRITERIA LATER TONIGHT.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
A BRISK NORTHERLY FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH SUBZERO TEMPERATURES                   
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA TO RESULT IN POSSIBLE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES              
AT LEAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE AS HIGH                
PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE REGION...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS               
WILL SLOWLY RELAX UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.           
CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET WITH A FRESH SNOW                
PACK IN PLACE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN CLOUDS              
RIDING ALONG THE TOP OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH               
SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND WEAK WAA APPROACHING FROM QUEBEC PROVINCE WILL            
MOVE IN STABILIZING TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE A FEW FLURRIES            
OR A SNOW SHOWERS OR TWO ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES LATE THURSDAY                
NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. CLOUD SHOULD THIN DURING FRIDAY                  
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                    
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL SETUP A              
RETURN FLOW OF WARMER AIR ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND AND                
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE FOLLOWED GMOS GUIDANCE FOR THIS PORTION OF                
THE FORECAST WHICH FOR TEMPERATURES SHOWS THE MODERATION IN                     
TEMPERATURES MAY BE MODULATED BY THE DEEP SNOW PACK ACROSS THE                  
REGION. IN ANY EVENT...THE LOG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST MAY                 
HAVE SOME MINOR DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE                   
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT NO MAJOR STORMS EXPECTED.                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                     
IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO MVFR BY                      
NOONTIME AND THEN VFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS SNOW MOVES OUT AND                
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE STATE. EXPECT VFR                        
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING                 
WEEKEND.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NEAR TERM: WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING AS LOW                  
PRESSURE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE WATERS. USED A BLEND OF THE NAM12                
AND GFS FOR WINDS WHICH INDICATE A STRONG SCA FOR TODAY. HOWEVER,               
WITH GALE ALREADY UP AND GUSTS POSSIBLY TO 35 KTS THIS MORNING WILL             
KEEP GALE UP FOR NOW. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE ENOUGH LATER THIS                   
AFTERNOON TO ALLOW WINDS TO DROP TO SCA LEVELS. WNAWAVE 2 TO 4 FT               
TOO LOW THIS MORNING SO WENT ABOVE THE WAVE GUIDANCE TODAY.                     
SHORT TERM: EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY THURSDAY                           
MORNING...THEN WITH THE GRADIENT AND CAA WANING CONDITIONS SHOULD               
GO BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.                           
&&                                                                              
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ME...BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR                      
     MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.                                        
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050>052.             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NEAR TERM...FOSTER/KHW                                                          
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS                                                        
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS                                                         
AVIATION...FOSTER/KHW                                                           
MARINE...FOSTER/KHW/FITZSIMMONS                                                 
</pre> me                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME                                             
631 AM EST WED JAN 2 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES EAST OF NOVA                
SCOTIA THROUGH TONIGHT. COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM                 
ON BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE              
BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...THE RETURN FLOW              
WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR THE REGION BEGIN OVER                
THE WEEKEND.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
LOW PRESSURE OVER YARMOUTH NOVA SCOTIA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL                  
CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD TODAY BRINGING SNOW TO AN END FROM                   
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING. RUC MODEL INDICATES                 
INTENSE SNOW BAND BETWEEN HOULTON AND DOVER-FOXCROFT SHOULD START               
TO WIND DOWN THIS MORNING AND SLOWLY MOVE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK.                   
SNOW HAS TAPERED TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS DOWNEAST SECTIONS SO WILL               
DROP WARNING THERE BUT WILL LEAVE OTHER HEADLINES UP UNTIL 10 AM                
SINCE SNOW STILL OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS.                
ALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SNOW SHOULD PULL OUT OF THE                   
STATE LATER THIS MORNING WITH SUN FOR MOST AREAS LATER THIS                     
AFTERNOON. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY                
UNDER A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND. EXPECT AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING              
SNOW ACROSS THE STATE TODAY EXCEPT ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS WHERE                 
HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE HARD TO BLOW. WITH WIND DIRECTION MORE                   
NORTH THAN WEST, MOST VULNERABLE ROADS TO BLOWING SNOW WILL BE                  
ONES ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS                    
ARCTIC HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. COMBINATION OF                
NORTHWEST WINDS AND TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO MAY CREATE WIND CHILLS              
AS LOW AS 20 BELOW OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS WHICH WOULD RESULT IN                 
ADVISORY CRITERIA LATER TONIGHT.                                                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
A BRISK NORTHERLY FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH SUBZERO TEMPERATURES                   
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA TO RESULT IN POSSIBLE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES              
AT LEAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE AS HIGH                
PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE REGION...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS               
WILL SLOWLY RELAX UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.           
CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET WITH A FRESH SNOW                
PACK IN PLACE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN CLOUDS              
RIDING ALONG THE TOP OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH               
SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND WEAK WAA APPROACHING FROM QUEBEC PROVINCE WILL            
MOVE IN STABILIZING TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE A FEW FLURRIES            
OR A SNOW SHOWERS OR TWO ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES LATE THURSDAY                
NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. CLOUD SHOULD THIN DURING FRIDAY                  
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                    
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL SETUP A              
RETURN FLOW OF WARMER AIR ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND AND                
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE FOLLOWED GMOS GUIDANCE FOR THIS PORTION OF                
THE FORECAST WHICH FOR TEMPERATURES SHOWS THE MODERATION IN                     
TEMPERATURES MAY BE MODULATED BY THE DEEP SNOW PACK ACROSS THE                  
REGION. IN ANY EVENT...THE LOG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST MAY                 
HAVE SOME MINOR DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE                   
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT NO MAJOR STORMS EXPECTED.                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                     
IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO MVFR BY                      
NOONTIME AND THEN VFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS SNOW MOVES OUT AND                
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE STATE. EXPECT VFR                        
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING                 
WEEKEND.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NEAR TERM: WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING AS LOW                  
PRESSURE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE WATERS. USED A BLEND OF THE NAM12                
AND GFS FOR WINDS WHICH INDICATE A STRONG SCA FOR TODAY. HOWEVER,               
WITH GALE ALREADY UP AND GUSTS POSSIBLY TO 35 KTS THIS MORNING WILL             
KEEP GALE UP FOR NOW. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE ENOUGH LATER THIS                   
AFTERNOON TO ALLOW WINDS TO DROP TO SCA LEVELS. WNAWAVE 2 TO 4 FT               
TOO LOW THIS MORNING SO WENT ABOVE THE WAVE GUIDANCE TODAY.                     
SHORT TERM: EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY THURSDAY                           
MORNING...THEN WITH THE GRADIENT AND CAA WANING CONDITIONS SHOULD               
GO BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.                           
&&                                                                              
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ME...HEAVY SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ002-                
     004>006-010-011-031-032.                                                   
     SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ001-003.                 
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050>052.             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NEAR TERM...FOSTER                                                              
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS                                                        
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS                                                         
AVIATION...FOSTER                                                               
MARINE...FOSTER/FITZSIMMONS                                                     
</pre> me                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA                                          
844 PM EST WED JAN 2 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE                     
BUILDS INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES                 
EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MILDER                       
TEMPERATURES. A WEAK WARM FRONT MAY BRING RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY.                
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                                
JUDGING FROM A BLEND OF RECENT RADAR AND SURFACE DATA COUPLED                   
WITH RECENT NAM AND RUC MODEL RUNS...EXPECT THE SCATTERED LIGHT                 
SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE GREAT LAKES AFFECTING OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA              
TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE REST OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT              
AND THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW AMOUNTS OF UP TO 1 INCH WERE FORECASTED              
FOR ONLY THE WEST VIRGINIA AND PERHAPS MARYLAND MOUNTAINS. AS THE               
GREAT PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES EASTWARD, THE BOUNDARY                  
LAYER WILL FURTHER STABILIZE, ENDING THE SHOWERS AND DECREASING                 
THE CLOUD COVER.                                                                
FORECASTED LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT HAVE BEEN LOWERED AS READING                
HAVE BEEN DROPPING OVER THE FRESH SNOW COVER. THE FALL SHOULD SLOW              
DOWN LATE TONIGHT AS THE CLOUDS OVER OHIO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO                  
PENNSYLVANIA.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...                            
CLEAR AND COLD THURSDAY NIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SUNSHINE                 
AND BACK TOWARD NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WARMING            
ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY NIGHT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND SURFACE HIGH.                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                      
SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY EAST AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL               
WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY ORIENTATION THIS PERIOD. THERE IS THE                      
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS AS A WEAK WARM FRONT DEVELOPS IN THE                 
INITIAL LOWLEVEL PUSH OF MILDER GULF AIR SURGE LATE SATURDAY INTO               
SUNDAY. AN ENSUING RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS EASTERN U.S. INTO TUESDAY                
WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. A             
DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM PLAINS STATES WILL BRING                
RAIN BACK INTO REGION WEDNESDAY.                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                      
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR AS THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WEAKENS              
TONIGHT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS GIVING                 
SCATTERED MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY MORNING.                        
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND MOVE              
EAST ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS.               
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY             
INTO SUNDAY BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.             
&&                                                                              
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
PA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> md                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1057 PM EST WED JAN 2 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFEFCT CONTINUES TO ROLL ON GIVEN                 
INFLUX OF COLDEST AIRMASS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS (H85 TEMPS                
DIPPING TO ABOUT -18C PER RAOBS/RUC GUIDANCE) AND PASSAGE OF                    
SUBTLE 700-500MB WAVE COUPLED WITH MORE THAN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER              
MOISTURE...AS 900-700MB RH CONTINUES TO HOLD ABOUT 85%.                         
HOWEVER...CHANGES ON THE WAY LATE TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS               
ALREADY MAKING QUICK PROGRESS INTO THE U.P./UPPER MIDWEST...WITH                
OVERALL 1000-850 MB FLOW TURNING WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST AND                    
BEGINNING TO HAVE SOME SUBTLE EFFECT PER UPSTREAM MQT RADAR                     
DEPICTING A SUBTLE SHIFT IN BANDING STRUCTURE. EXPECT THIS TREND                
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING               
TAKES OVER AND INVERSION HEIGHTS CRASH PER ARRIVAL OF 1000-500MB                
DEEP LAYER RIDGING AND SUBSEQUENT DRYING/LOSS OF MOISTURE ALOFT.                
IN TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT FASHION...ONGOING MOMENTUM OF SNOW BANDS                 
LIKELY TO CARRY THE PRECIP A BIT LONGER THAN MODELS WOULD                       
SUGGEST (ESPECIALLY WITH INITIAL SUPERIOR CONNECTION)...AND WILL                
THEREFORE HOLD ONTO HIGH POPS THROUGH ABOUT 09Z AS SHOULD SEE SOME              
BANDS CONTINUE BEFORE QUICKLY ERODING BY SUNRISE. LITTLE IN THE                 
WAY OF ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS PER ONGOING LOSS OF MOISTURE                
SUPPORT...BUT PERHAPS UP TO AN INCH IF ANY BANDS CAN HOLD STILL                 
LONG ENOUGH.                                                                    
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT QUITE IFFY. OVERALL HAVE RAISED GOING                    
NUMBERS A TAD MOST SPOTS (MOST NOTICEABLE OVER NORTHWEST LOWER                  
MICHIGAN WHERE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT) AS                 
EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO LINGER A BIT LONGER...AND UPSTREAM THICK                  
JET-DRIVEN CIRRUS SHIELD WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS WELL.                      
HOWEVER...ALSO DEALING WITH EXCELLENT DRAINAGE FLOW OUT OF                      
ONTARIO...WITH NUMBERS TUMBLING OVER EASTERN UPPER. EXPECT THIS                 
SAME FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BLEED OUT ACROSS LAKE HURON AND INTO                  
NORTHERN LOWER...SO GOING NUMBERS AROUND 0 TO 5 LOOK A GOOD BET BY              
MORNING...BUT AGAIN WILL HAVE TO WATCH PROGRESSION OF CLOUDS AND                
POTENTIAL RELOCATION OF LAKE HURON STRATOCU DECK INTO NORTHEAST                 
LOWER AS FLOW TRIES TO KICK NORTHEAST.                                          
UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES ALREADY OUT.                                                
LAWRENCE                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION... /ISSUED 636 PM EST WED JAN 2 2008/                                 
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 06-09Z                        
TIMEFRAME BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR WINS OUT AND OVERALL FLOW REGIME                
QUICKLY SHIFTS SOUTHWEST BY MORNING. PRIOR TO THAT TIME...A MIX OF              
MVFR TO OCCASIONAL HIGH END IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TIMES FOR                
KTVC/KPLN AS SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS                
FOR KAPN...THOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOWER                   
CEILINGS TO DRIFT IN FROM EXPECTED LAKE HURON SNOW BAND.                        
DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND INTRUSION OF DRYING SHOULD LEAD TO A              
LOSS OF STRATOCU LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH JET- INDUCED CIRRUS SHIELD               
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD AND PERSIST THROUGH                
00Z TOMORROW. WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE                    
DAY...WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AS GRADIENT                   
TIGHTENS WITH STRONG HIGH TO THE SOUTH AND TROUGH CUTTING THROUGH               
CENTRAL ONTARIO. SOME SMALL POTENTIAL AS WELL FOR STRATOCU DECK TO              
ONCE AGAIN OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS PERSISTENT               
OVER-LAKE SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY OVERCOME OVERALL DRYNESS...THOUGH                  
CONFIDENCE SUFFICIENTLY LOW TO PRECLUDE ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME.               
LAWRENCE                                                                        
&&                                                                              
DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM EST WED JAN 2 2008/                                
QUICK BURST OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW (LES) HAS PROGRESSED THRU EASTERN               
UPPER MI...AND IS ON TARGET TO DO THE SAME IN NORTHERN LOWER MI                 
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS                 
WILL MOVE TO MO TONIGHT...AND TO KY/TN THURSDAY. RIDGE AXIS WILL                
CROSS MI EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION BY                 
AFTERNOON AS SAID RIDGE MOVES EAST. PRECIP TRENDS THIS EVENING ARE              
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.                                                      
TONIGHT...SURFACE TROF AXIS NOW MOVING SOUTH ACROSS FAR NORTHERN                
LAKE MI...WITH A SMALL BULLSEYE OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE (850-700MB RH             
TO 90 PERCENT) ALONG FOR THE RIDE. THIS WILL BRING LES TO NW LOWER              
MI FROM LATE AFTERNOON THRU MID EVENING. PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC                     
ASSISTANCE IS BRIEF...BY MIDNIGHT THE BETTER MOISTURE IS WELL                   
DOWNSTATE...AND WE/RE FIGHTING OFF DRY AIR ADVECTION. GIVEN THE                 
COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE TROF...DELTA T/S NEAR             
20...AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...ISOLATED BURSTS OF INCH/HR SNOWS IS               
POSSIBLE (AND OCCURRED IN LUCE CO AT MIDDAY). BUT THAT COMBINATION              
OF ELEMENTS WILL NOT LAST LONG AT ALL...AND BANDS WILL NOT GET A                
CHANCE TO GET ORGANIZED BEFORE THINGS START TO SHUT DOWN.                       
SO WILL REDUCE SNOW ACCUMS A BIT FURTHER...WITH ONLY ISOLATED 2-INCH            
TOTALS POSSIBLE WEST OF I-75 IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.               
FOR OVERNIGHT...INSTABILITY REMAINS PLENTY SUFFICIENT FOR VIGOROUS              
LES IN BORDERLINE NNW/NW FLOW. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS FALLING OFF THE            
TABLE (850-700MB RH 50 PERCENT AT 06Z...40 PERCENT AT 09Z). PERHAPS             
MORE SIGNIFICANTLY...BIG RIDGING ARRIVES ON SUPERIOR AT 06Z...AND               
OUR WINDS WILL BE BACKING WEST TOWARD DAWN. THE LOSS OF THE SUPERIOR            
CONNECTION AND ARRIVAL OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL SPELL THE END OF               
LES. AND...IT/S WORTH NOTING THAT LES ON SUPERIOR NOW (BEHIND THE               
SURFACE TROF) IS LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE. END RESULT...JUST SCT LES IN             
THE SNOWBELTS OVERNIGHT...WITH MINIMAL ACCUMS.                                  
TEMPS OUTSIDE OF LES AREAS WILL AGAIN BE QUITE COLD...WITH SUB-ZERO             
READINGS LIKELY IN PLACES LIKE THE SAULT AND PLN. LAKE MI COASTAL               
LOCALES WILL SEE MINS CLOSER TO 10F.                                            
THURSDAY...BROAD RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS MID-                     
CONTINENT. A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL PASS NORTH OF             
SUPERIOR DURING THE DAY. THIS COULD BRING SOME CLOUD COVER TO                   
CHIPPEWA COUNTY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WEDGE OF               
DRY AIR BETWEEN 900 AND 700MB SHOULD LIMIT CHANCE OF PRECIP REACHING            
THE GROUND (IF ANYTHING...MAYBE A FLURRY OR TWO AT MOST...AND WILL              
NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW). OTHERWISE...INTENSE WARM                  
ADVECTION WILL OCCUR...BUT MAINLY ABOVE 900MB. STILL RELATIVELY COOL            
(AND MOIST) AIR TRAPPED BELOW 900MB. SO WE WILL STAY COOLISH (NOT AS            
COLD AS TODAY) AND MAINLY CLOUDY (BETWEEN LOW CLOUDS...AND THE                  
CIRRUS SHIELD HEADING OUR WAY FROM MANITOBA). MAX TEMPS WILL BE                 
MAINLY IN THE 20S...NEAR 30 AROUND TVC...THOUGH A BRISK SOUTHWEST               
WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL CHILLIER.                                                
SPEAKING OF WHICH...WILL ISSUE GALE WARNINGS FOR THE LAKE MI MARINE             
ZONES AND FOR WHITEFISH BAY FOR VERY LATE THURSDAY THRU FRIDAY                  
MORNING...THANKS TO STRONG SW WINDS.                                            
ZOLTOWSKI                                                                       
REST OF THE FORECAST (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT                               
WEDNESDAY)...PATTERN CHANGE STILL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK OVER THE               
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A DEEP WESTERN TROUGH FORCES DOWNSTREAM RIDGING            
ACROSS THE EAST COAST. THEREFORE...A WARMUP IS ON TAP LATER IN THE              
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...MODERATING                      
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ROUND OUT THE ABBREVIATED WORK WEEK                
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL             
REVOLVE AROUND POPS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AND JUST HOW WARM               
TEMPERATURES WILL GET.                                                          
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL LEVEL OFF                 
RESULTING IN A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS/SOUNDINGS                
SHOW QUITE A BIT OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BUT DRY MID AND LOWER                  
LEVELS (MEAN 850-500 MB RH 35 TO 45 PERCENT) SO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES             
SHOULD WORK. SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH PROGRESSIVELY            
MILDER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE BREEZE WILL KEEP                       
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE              
TEENS TO LOWER 20S EXPECTED. GALES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE                    
MICHIGAN ZONES ALONG WITH WHITEFISH BAY. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE UPPER              
20S TO LOWER 30S.                                                               
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE JUST A BIT                 
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BRING A RIPPLE THROUGH            
THE FLOW WHICH SLOWS WARMUP JUST A TAD AS WELL AS POSSIBLY BRINGING             
IN A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS. THE NAM/LAST NIGHTS ECMWF ARE              
MUCH MORE BULLISH WITH THE WARM AIR AND ARE MUCH DRIER. FOR NOW WILL            
CONTINUE WITH THE LOW CHANCE POPS AND ADD SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE RAIN            
SHOWERS AS GFS/UKMET WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH...ESPECIALLY IN THE                   
MORNING TO SUPPORT THIS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 20S (WITH              
PERHAPS A FEW UPPER TEENS EAST). HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MIDDLE TO                
PERHAPS UPPER 30S.                                                              
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN             
STATES CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY WHILE SENDING MINOR PIECES OF ENERGY                
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED THOUGH IF THIS              
ENERGY REMAINS MAINLY TO OUR WEST BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE             
POPS TO MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY/LINE UP WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. IN               
ADDITION...WITH WARMER AIR OVERRIDING THE SLOWLY MELTING                        
SNOWPACK...WILL ADD IN AREAS OF FOG. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT NOT FALLING            
TO MUCH FROM HIGHS ON SATURDAY (LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S) WITH HIGHS                 
SUNDAY CREEPING UP INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S.                               
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WESTERN TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST                    
BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.                    
EXTENDED MODELS VARY AS TO THE TIMING/DEPTH OF SURFACE DEVELOPMENT              
BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN AT SOME POINT            
DURING THIS TIME WITH MORE FOG. THE SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL MAY                   
EVENTUALLY LEAD TO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS AS WELL. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO             
LOWER 50S.                                                                      
WEDNESDAY...TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO CREEP CLOSER TO THE REGION               
WITH MORE SEASONABLE AIR ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST. WILL HAVE A               
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS MOISTURE LINGERS BEHIND THE                  
DEPARTING SYSTEM AND SURFACE COLD FRONT. NOT AS WARM WITH                       
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.                                    
SULLIVAN                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-            
     341-342-344>346.                                                           
LH...NONE.                                                                      
LS...GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ321.            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
630 PM EST WED JAN 2 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER             
NAMERICA WITH A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A TROF OVER THE ERN THIRD            
OF THE CONUS. PATTERN IS BECOMING PROGRESSIVE WITH SIGNIFICANT                  
HEIGHT RISES NOTED OVER THE NRN PLAINS INTO SCNTRL CANADA (12Z RAOBS            
SHOWED 12HR 500MB HEIGHT RISES UPWARDS OF 180M). WITH THE RIDGE                 
SLIDING EWD...PACIFIC AIR/DEVELOPING STRONG WAA PATTERN HAS PRODUCED            
A HUGE AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS CNTRL CANADA INTO THE NRN PLAINS.             
AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS FROM TX TO MN. LES OFF LAKE                
SUPERIOR HAS BEEN WINDING DOWN THIS AFTN...MOST NOTABLY OVER THE W              
WHERE LATEST VIS IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE ORGANIZED LES REMAINING.                  
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THU)...                                                
MAIN FCST ISSUE IS ENDING LES TONIGHT/MIN TEMPS TONIGHT AND WINDS               
THU.                                                                            
WITH SFC RIDGE REACHING WRN LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS EVENING AND                
THEN SLIDING E OF THE LAKE AROUND 09Z...LES WILL END FROM W TO E                
TONIGHT AS WINDS BACK TO THE SW OR S. OPTED TO CANCEL ONGOING ADVYS             
OVER THE ERN COUNTIES WITH THIS FCST ISSUANCE AS LES IS CURRENTLY               
NOT ORGANIZED INTO SIGNIFICANT BANDS. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME               
BURSTS OF SNOW WITH VIS DOWN TO 1/2SM EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT THOSE            
OCCURRENCES WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED. MAY SEE ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 1            
INCH THRU 00Z WITH ANOTHER 1 INCH TONIGHT BEFORE SNOW ENDS. TEMPS               
TONIGHT WILL BE A TRICKY. WITH SFC RIDGE PASSING DURING THE NIGHT               
AND STRATOCU SCATTERING OUT WITH THE RIDGE PASSAGE...THERE WILL BE              
AN OPPORTUNITY FOR TEMPS TO PLUMMET. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF                      
COMPLICATING FACTORS. FIRST...CI AND HIGH BASED AS/AC CLOUDS ARE                
RAPIDLY SPREADING ESE INTO MN/NRN ONTARIO...AND SECOND...RETURN FLOW            
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH RAPIDLY INCREASES...AIDED BY SIGNIFICANT            
PRES FALLS. LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS 3HR PRES FALLS REACHING AN                    
IMPRESSIVE 10MB ACROSS ERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. ALTHOUGH THESE                
NEGATIVES FOR A STRONG SFC TEMP FALL (CLOUDS/INCREASING WINDS) WILL             
QUICKLY ARRIVE AFTER RIDGE PASSAGE...THERE SHOULD STILL BE A SHORT              
WINDOW OF 2 TO PERHAPS 4HRS OF GOOD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING            
IN MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY WHERE NEW SNOW HAS ACCUMULATED. HAVE THUS            
GONE BLO LOWEST MOS GUIDANCE...GENERALLY AROUND -5F IN MUCH OF THE              
INTERIOR (AS LOW AS -10F AT CHAMPION).                                          
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE THU UNDER TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BTWN               
DEPARTING STRONG SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE AND LOW PRES TRACKING TO HUDSON            
BAY. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE A WAA PATTERN OVER A SHALLOW EXITING                 
ARCTIC AIRMASS...SITUATION IS STILL FAVORABLE FOR WINDY CONDITIONS.             
FORTUNATELY...THERE WILL BE SOME STABILITY AS GFS/NAM SHOW 60KT AT              
3KFT. BIGGEST FACTOR SUPPORTING/ENHANCING SW WINDS WILL BE THE                  
STRONG SFC PRES FALLS (8-10MB/3HR) SPREADING E ACROSS ONTARIO THU.              
EXPECT TO SEE WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 35-40MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE N               
AND E LATE THU MORNING THRU AT LEAST MID AFTN. WITH UNCERTAINTY ON              
HOW STABILITY WILL AFFECT THE INCREASE IN WINDS...KEPT WINDS BLO                
ADVY CRITERIA FOR THIS FCST ISSUANCE. THE STRONG WAA PATTERN WILL               
ALSO LEAD TO CONSIDERABLE MID/HIGH CLOUDS THU AS IS OCCURRING                   
UPSTREAM THIS AFTN. LOWER LEVELS APPEAR PLENTY DRY ENOUGH THOUGH TO             
PRECLUDE ANY MENTION OF PCPN. KEPT MAX TEMPS A BIT BLO ALL MOS                  
GUIDANCE GIVEN CLOUDS AND CONSIDERABLE SNOW COVER UPSTREAM WHICH                
WILL TEMPER WARMING AT THE SFC.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...                           
THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...WINDS DECOUPLE AS 925MB WINDS REMAIN              
FROM THE WSW AND 850MB WINDS BECOME WNW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST              
HALF OF THE LAKE. BY 06Z FRI...WINDS COUPLE UP OUT OF THE WEST BUT              
REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH SUN. KEPT WX GRIDS DRY THROUGH FRI              
NIGHT AS LITTLE MOISTURE AND EVEN LESS FORCING WILL BE PRESENT OVER             
THE CWA.                                                                        
SATURDAY...KEPT SCHC FREEZING DRIZZLE IN FCST FOR 12-18Z SAT. NAM               
AND GFS BOTH SUPPORT IT BY A THICK DRY LAYER FROM AROUND 900-600MB              
AND THEN A SATURATED LAYER BELOW. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AT 500MB CREATING            
WEAK POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION INTO OUR CWA...AND CORRESPONDING              
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE OMEGA VALUES...AS WELL AS TEMPS ALL > -10C...MAY              
SUPPORT ENOUGH LIFT FOR THE DRIZZLE. THE SFC TEMP IS PROGGED TO BE              
BELOW FREEZING UNTIL AROUND 18Z. FROM 18Z SAT TO 00Z SUN...KEPT THE             
SCHC OF RAIN SINCE THE GFS IS SHOWING A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE...               
ADDITIONAL PVA AND SLIGHTLY GREATER LIFTING ON ISENTROPIC SURFACES.             
AS FAR AS P-TYPE GOES...THE ECMWF SOLN SUPPORTS RAIN IN THE                     
AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS THE COLDER SOLN WHEN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF;               
THE GFS DOES NOT HAVE THE 1500FT WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT INTO THE U.P.             
UNTIL 00Z SUN...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS IT IN THE CWA BETWEEN 12Z SAT               
AND 00Z SUN. THE WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUPPORT RAIN FROM SAT NIGHT              
THROUGH MON NIGHT.                                                              
SUNDAY...WHILE WAA IS PREVALENT ON SUN...LACK OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING            
AND OVERALL MOISTURE MAY INHIBIT THE CHANCE OF RAIN WE HAVE GOING.              
BACKED OFF POPS TO 30 PERCENT. THERE MAY JUST BE LOW CLOUDS...FOG OR            
DRIZZLE FOR SUN AND SUN NIGHT. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS                 
DURING THE NEXT FCST UPDATE.                                                    
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL OMEGA VALUES OF AROUND            
0 TO -1 ARE FAVORABLE FOR LIFT OVER THE EAST HALF ON 00Z MON-00Z                
TUE...BUT NOT AS FAVORABLE OVER THE WEST. 280K GFS ISENTROPIC SFC               
INDICATES WEAK SUBSIDENCE OVER THE WEST MON 18Z. CUT BACK POPS TO 30            
OVER FAR WEST ACCORDINGLY. POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION OVER THE                
EAST HALF ON TUE WILL CREATE A BETTER CHANCE FOR PCPN. KEPT GOING               
POPS OF 50 IN THE EAST HALF AND SOUTH CENTRAL.                                  
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...00Z ECMWF AND 06Z GFS NOW BOTH SHOW A               
CLOSED LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AT 12Z TUE...THE ECMWF STRONGER OF THE              
TWO. THE GFS HAS A MORE ELONGATED SHAPE AND ONLY HAS THE EAST HALF              
IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH 850MB TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH WED                
18Z. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE ENTIRE U.P. IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH 850MB            
TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH WED 12Z...AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW                 
TRACKS ACROSS FAR WESTERN UPPER MI ON WED MORNING. THERE IS A                   
GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME SORT OF PCPN (GFS/ECMWF               
SUPPORT) TUE 12Z-WED 12Z. MADE WEST HALF CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW AND             
EAST HALF CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH WED 12Z...THEN MADE ENTIRE CWA                 
CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW WED 12Z-THU 00Z TO REFLECT THE MODEL                     
UNCERTAINTY.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT AND                
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS OF THE FORECAST                   
PERIOD.  THE INCREASED WIND...ALONG WITH NEWLY FALLEN SNOW...WILL               
ALLOW FOR POTENTIAL BLOWING SNOW MAINLY AFTER 15Z.  HAVE LOWERED                
CIGS FOR THIS FORECAST...BUT STILL KEEP THEM ABOVE BKNO35.  WILL                
NEED TO MONITOR POTENTIAL LOWER CLOUDS AFTER 21Z AT CMX AND POSSIBLY            
STRONGER WINDS THAN FORECAST AT BOTH SITES.                                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
WINDS WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH INTO THE 5 TO 15 KT RANGE TONIGHT AS              
SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE QUICKLY SLIDES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. HOWEVER...             
LIGHT WINDS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS TIGHT PRES GRADIENT DEVELOPS BTWN            
THE DEPARTING STRONG SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE AND LOW PRES TRACKING E TO             
HUDSON BAY. WITH AIRMASS NOT FULLY STABLE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND                
IMPRESSIVE PRES FALLS ACROSS ONTARIO ENHANCING S TO SW WINDS...STAGE            
WILL BE SET FOR SOLID GALES THU. EXPECT TO SEE SOME GUSTS TO 45KT...            
AND NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW GUSTS COULD REACH 50KT BTWN              
THE KEWEENAW AND ISLE ROYALE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THU EVENING/NIGHT.            
NO GALES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD.                     
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY                   
EVENING FOR LSZ162-249>251-263>267.                                             
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY                 
NIGHT FOR LMZ221-248-250.                                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...ROLFSON                                                   
LONG TERM...MRC                                                                 
AVIATION...KF                                                                   
MARINE...ROLFSON                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1240 PM EST WED JAN 2 2008                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION                                                     
.SYNOPSIS (ISSUED AT 515 AM EST)...                                             
09Z IR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED A LARGE TROUGH OVER            
THE EAST PACIFIC...WITH RIDING OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. MUCH OF THE            
EASTERN UNITED STATES IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A TROUGH...WITH AN              
EMBEDDED 527 DAM UPPER LOW OVER WEST VIRGINIA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH            
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES...WITH LOWS OFF THE                
NEWFOUNDLAND COAST AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS.                                        
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 515 AM EST)...                                           
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS               
AND ANY POTENTIAL CHANGE IN HEADLINES.                                          
TODAY AND TONIGHT...BY 12Z WINDS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE                           
NORTH-NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CWA...WHICH SHOULD DECREASE SNOW OVER                
MARQUETTE COUNTY. AT THIS POINT...ADVISORY ENDING AT 12Z THERE                  
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT. UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CWA WILL                  
PROVIDE SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT DURING THE DAY...WHICH SHOULD TEMPORARILY            
ENHANCE THE PERSISTENT LES. CONVERGENCE OUT WEST SHOULD DECREASE IN             
THE EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE THE TROUGH COMES THROUGH...WITH SNOW                   
BEGINNING TO WIND DOWN. 850MB TEMPS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH REMAIN COLD             
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LES...AS TEMPS RANGE FROM -15 TO -20C. OVER THE               
EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC               
LIFT COULD RAMP UP SNOW RATES. DEPENDING ON PHASING OF BEST LOW                 
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND PASSAGE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WARNING                   
CRITERIA MIGHT OCCUR. 02/00Z RUN OF THE LOCAL WRF-ARW RUN SHOWS A               
MAXIMUM OF 0.30 INCHES OF QPF DURING THE 12Z WED-00Z THU TIME                   
PERIOD...WHICH IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE 01/12Z RUN OF THE MODEL.                  
HOWEVER...THIS MODEL SHOWS BETTER PHASING OF UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL              
FORCING. THE LOCAL WRF-ARW RUN IS FASTER WITH THIS TROUGH PASSAGE               
THAN THE GFS/NAM/RUC13...WHICH SHOW TROUGH PASSAGE ABOUT 6 HOURS                
LATER AND AFTER THE TIME OF PEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. AS A                    
RESULT...DECIDED NOT TO UPGRADE TO WARNINGS. IF THE TROUGH ENTERS               
THE AREA MORE QUICKLY...BETTER SNOW RATES MIGHT OCCUR. AS THE                   
SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT...SNOW SHOULD QUICKLY COME               
TO AN END AS THE COMBINATION OF DRIER AIR...BACKING WINDS...AND                 
WARMING 850MB TEMPS ENTER THE AREA.                                             
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AREA APPEARS TO DRY OUT A BIT...AND             
NO SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS ARE PRESENT TO PROVIDE ANY PRECIPITATION. WINDS             
SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DUE TO A RIDGE ACROSS THE              
EASTERN UNITED STATES...PREVENTING ANY LAKE EFFECT. LOW LEVEL                   
MOISTURE IS SHOWN MOVING INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT IN BOTH THE               
NAM AND THE GFS...ALLOWING FOR A POSSIBILITY OF FOG BEFORE DRIER AIR            
MOVES BACK IN ON FRIDAY.                                                        
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS UPPER            
MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY. MID LEVELS ARE QUITE DRY...WITH SATURATION             
ONLY OCCURRING IN THE LOWEST 3000 FT. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AREN`T             
ANY HIGHER THAN -5C...AND WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING              
IN THE MORNING...GOING P-TYPE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE STILL APPEARS TO              
BE THE WAY TO GO. GFS SHOWS SURFACE TEMPERATURES FLIRTING WITH                  
FREEZING BY 18Z...BUT WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO TOP OUT AT OR JUST                 
ABOVE FREEZING...FROZEN PRECIPITATION MIGHT PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE              
DAY. WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE AFTERNOON HOURS            
FOR NOW. WAA CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF             
BOTH BRINGING SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING BY 12Z.                       
UNSETTLED PATTERN PERSISTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH INDICATIONS              
THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD ACTUALLY GO ABOVE FREEZING FOR MULTIPLE                
DAYS. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST BEYOND SATURDAY NIGHT.                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
AT KCMX...MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHSN SHOULD PERSIST THRU THE AFTN.                
THERE STILL MAY BE A FEW BRIEF VIS REDUCTIONS INTO THE IFR RANGE                
THRU 20Z...BUT AS INCREASINGLY DRIER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE                     
AREA...-SHSN WILL BECOME LIGHTER AND VIS WILL IMPROVE. BY                       
EVENING...EXPECT MVFR CIGS AND VFR VIS WITH FLURRIES. AS SFC RIDGE              
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BACK SW...BRINGING AN END            
TO FLURRIES AND MVFR CLOUDS OFF THE LAKE. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL                   
DEVELOP THU...AND WITH NEW SNOW COVER...SOME BLSN MAY DEVELOP.                  
AT KSAW...CIGS WILL HOVER AROUND 3KFT THRU THE AFTN...AND THERE MAY             
BE A FEW FLURRIES OFF THE LAKE (NO VIS RESTRICTION). AS SFC RIDGE               
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BACK SW...BRINGING AN END            
TO STRATOCU CLOUDS OFF THE LAKE. GUSTY S TO SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP               
THU...AND WITH NEW SNOW COVER...SOME BLSN MAY DEVELOP.                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
LOOK FOR WINDS TO 25 KNOTS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 15 KNOTS OR LESS            
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS             
IN FROM THE WEST. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY AND LOW                   
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...GALES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS                
MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THESE GALES SHOULD DIMINISH WEST TO EAST                 
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC. EXPECT WINDS              
AT OR BELOW 30 KNOTS THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON               
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS                  
  EVENING FOR MIZ006.                                                           
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR                       
  MIZ007-085.                                                                   
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ263-264.                     
GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ266-267.                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...TAG                                                       
MARINE...JV                                                                     
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
721 AM EST WED JAN 2 2008                                                       
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION                                                 
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
09Z IR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED A LARGE TROUGH OVER            
THE EAST PACIFIC...WITH RIDING OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. MUCH OF THE            
EASTERN UNITED STATES IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A TROUGH...WITH AN              
EMBEDDED 527 DAM UPPER LOW OVER WEST VIRGINIA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH            
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES...WITH LOWS OFF THE                
NEWFOUNDLAND COAST AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS.                                        
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS               
AND ANY POTENTIAL CHANGE IN HEADLINES.                                          
TODAY AND TONIGHT...BY 12Z WINDS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE                           
NORTH-NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CWA...WHICH SHOULD DECREASE SNOW OVER                
MARQUETTE COUNTY. AT THIS POINT...ADVISORY ENDING AT 12Z THERE                  
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT. UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CWA WILL                  
PROVIDE SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT DURING THE DAY...WHICH SHOULD TEMPORARILY            
ENHANCE THE PERSISTENT LES. CONVERGENCE OUT WEST SHOULD DECREASE IN             
THE EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE THE TROUGH COMES THROUGH...WITH SNOW                   
BEGINNING TO WIND DOWN. 850MB TEMPS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH REMAIN COLD             
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LES...AS TEMPS RANGE FROM -15 TO -20C. OVER THE               
EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC               
LIFT COULD RAMP UP SNOW RATES. DEPENDING ON PHASING OF BEST LOW                 
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND PASSAGE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WARNING                   
CRITERIA MIGHT OCCUR. 02/00Z RUN OF THE LOCAL WRF-ARW RUN SHOWS A               
MAXIMUM OF 0.30 INCHES OF QPF DURING THE 12Z WED-00Z THU TIME                   
PERIOD...WHICH IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE 01/12Z RUN OF THE MODEL.                  
HOWEVER...THIS MODEL SHOWS BETTER PHASING OF UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL              
FORCING. THE LOCAL WRF-ARW RUN IS FASTER WITH THIS TROUGH PASSAGE               
THAN THE GFS/NAM/RUC13...WHICH SHOW TROUGH PASSAGE ABOUT 6 HOURS                
LATER AND AFTER THE TIME OF PEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. AS A                    
RESULT...DECIDED NOT TO UPGRADE TO WARNINGS. IF THE TROUGH ENTERS               
THE AREA MORE QUICKLY...BETTER SNOW RATES MIGHT OCCUR. AS THE                   
SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT...SNOW SHOULD QUICKLY COME               
TO AN END AS THE COMBINATION OF DRIER AIR...BACKING WINDS...AND                 
WARMING 850MB TEMPS ENTER THE AREA.                                             
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AREA APPEARS TO DRY OUT A BIT...AND             
NO SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS ARE PRESENT TO PROVIDE ANY PRECIPITATION. WINDS             
SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DUE TO A RIDGE ACROSS THE              
EASTERN UNITED STATES...PREVENTING ANY LAKE EFFECT. LOW LEVEL                   
MOISTURE IS SHOWN MOVING INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT IN BOTH THE               
NAM AND THE GFS...ALLOWING FOR A POSSIBILITY OF FOG BEFORE DRIER AIR            
MOVES BACK IN ON FRIDAY.                                                        
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS UPPER            
MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY. MID LEVELS ARE QUITE DRY...WITH SATURATION             
ONLY OCCURRING IN THE LOWEST 3000 FT. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AREN`T             
ANY HIGHER THAN -5C...AND WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING              
IN THE MORNING...GOING P-TYPE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE STILL APPEARS TO              
BE THE WAY TO GO. GFS SHOWS SURFACE TEMPERATURES FLIRTING WITH                  
FREEZING BY 18Z...BUT WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO TOP OUT AT OR JUST                 
ABOVE FREEZING...FROZEN PRECIPITATION MIGHT PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE              
DAY. WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE AFTERNOON HOURS            
FOR NOW. WAA CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF             
BOTH BRINGING SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING BY 12Z.                       
UNSETTLED PATTERN PERSISTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH INDICATIONS              
THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD ACTUALLY GO ABOVE FREEZING FOR MULTIPLE                
DAYS. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST BEYOND SATURDAY NIGHT.                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
AT KSAW...HEAVIER LES BANDS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD THIS MORNING            
WITH BACKING FLOW. LOOK FOR PREVAILING MVFR/TEMPO IFR VSBYS TO                  
IMPROVE TO VFR BY 15Z. FLOW BACKING TO LIGHT W-SW DIRECTION THIS                
EVENING WILL CAUSE MVFR CIGS TO BREAK APART WITH INCREASING                     
DRYING/SUBSIDENCE FROM THE WEST.                                                
AT KCMX...PREVAILING MVFR/TEMPO IFR VSBYS IN SNOW THIS MORNING                  
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING                        
DRYING/SUBSIDENCE. LOOK FOR FLURRIES TO END AND MVFR CIGS BREAK                 
APART BY LATE EVENING AS WEAKENING FLOW BACKS SW WITH THE APPROACH              
OF SFC RIDGE AXIS FROM THE WEST.                                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
LOOK FOR WINDS TO 25 KNOTS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 15 KNOTS OR LESS            
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS             
IN FROM THE WEST. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY AND LOW                   
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...GALES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS                
MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THESE GALES SHOULD DIMINISH WEST TO EAST                 
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC. EXPECT WINDS              
AT OR BELOW 30 KNOTS THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON               
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS                  
  MORNING FOR MIZ005.                                                           
LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS                  
  EVENING FOR MIZ006.                                                           
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR                       
  MIZ007-085.                                                                   
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 7PM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ263-264.                      
GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ266-267.                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...TAG                                                       
MARINE...JV                                                                     
AVIATION...JV                                                                   
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
515 AM EST WED JAN 2 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
09Z IR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED A LARGE TROUGH OVER            
THE EAST PACIFIC...WITH RIDING OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. MUCH OF THE            
EASTERN UNITED STATES IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A TROUGH...WITH AN              
EMBEDDED 527 DAM UPPER LOW OVER WEST VIRGINIA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH            
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES...WITH LOWS OFF THE                
NEWFOUNDLAND COAST AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS.                                        
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS               
AND ANY POTENTIAL CHANGE IN HEADLINES.                                          
TODAY AND TONIGHT...BY 12Z WINDS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE                           
NORTH-NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CWA...WHICH SHOULD DECREASE SNOW OVER                
MARQUETTE COUNTY. AT THIS POINT...ADVISORY ENDING AT 12Z THERE                  
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT. UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CWA WILL                  
PROVIDE SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT DURING THE DAY...WHICH SHOULD TEMPORARILY            
ENHANCE THE PERSISTENT LES. CONVERGENCE OUT WEST SHOULD DECREASE IN             
THE EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE THE TROUGH COMES THROUGH...WITH SNOW                   
BEGINNING TO WIND DOWN. 850MB TEMPS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH REMAIN COLD             
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LES...AS TEMPS RANGE FROM -15 TO -20C. OVER THE               
EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC               
LIFT COULD RAMP UP SNOW RATES. DEPENDING ON PHASING OF BEST LOW                 
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND PASSAGE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WARNING                   
CRITERIA MIGHT OCCUR. 02/00Z RUN OF THE LOCAL WRF-ARW RUN SHOWS A               
MAXIMUM OF 0.30 INCHES OF QPF DURING THE 12Z WED-00Z THU TIME                   
PERIOD...WHICH IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE 01/12Z RUN OF THE MODEL.                  
HOWEVER...THIS MODEL SHOWS BETTER PHASING OF UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL              
FORCING. THE LOCAL WRF-ARW RUN IS FASTER WITH THIS TROUGH PASSAGE               
THAN THE GFS/NAM/RUC13...WHICH SHOW TROUGH PASSAGE ABOUT 6 HOURS                
LATER AND AFTER THE TIME OF PEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. AS A                    
RESULT...DECIDED NOT TO UPGRADE TO WARNINGS. IF THE TROUGH ENTERS               
THE AREA MORE QUICKLY...BETTER SNOW RATES MIGHT OCCUR. AS THE                   
SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT...SNOW SHOULD QUICKLY COME               
TO AN END AS THE COMBINATION OF DRIER AIR...BACKING WINDS...AND                 
WARMING 850MB TEMPS ENTER THE AREA.                                             
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AREA APPEARS TO DRY OUT A BIT...AND             
NO SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS ARE PRESENT TO PROVIDE ANY PRECIPITATION. WINDS             
SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DUE TO A RIDGE ACROSS THE              
EASTERN UNITED STATES...PREVENTING ANY LAKE EFFECT. LOW LEVEL                   
MOISTURE IS SHOWN MOVING INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT IN BOTH THE               
NAM AND THE GFS...ALLOWING FOR A POSSIBILITY OF FOG BEFORE DRIER AIR            
MOVES BACK IN ON FRIDAY.                                                        
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS UPPER            
MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY. MID LEVELS ARE QUITE DRY...WITH SATURATION             
ONLY OCCURRING IN THE LOWEST 3000 FT. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AREN`T             
ANY HIGHER THAN -5C...AND WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING              
IN THE MORNING...GOING P-TYPE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE STILL APPEARS TO              
BE THE WAY TO GO. GFS SHOWS SURFACE TEMPERATURES FLIRTING WITH                  
FREEZING BY 18Z...BUT WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO TOP OUT AT OR JUST                 
ABOVE FREEZING...FROZEN PRECIPITATION MIGHT PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE              
DAY. WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE AFTERNOON HOURS            
FOR NOW. WAA CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF             
BOTH BRINGING SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING BY 12Z.                       
UNSETTLED PATTERN PERSISTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH INDICATIONS              
THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD ACTUALLY GO ABOVE FREEZING FOR MULTIPLE                
DAYS. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST BEYOND SATURDAY NIGHT.                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
TAF FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOUT LAKE EFFECT UNTIL LATE IN               
THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR FOR THE MOST            
PART WITH IFR IN THE HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT BANDS FOR VISIBILITIES.                
CIGS SHOULD STAY IN THE MVFR RANGE. WINDS ARE PROGGED TO SWITCH NW              
LATE TONIGHT INTO WED...WHICH WILL ALLOW KSAW TO IMPROVE. DRY AIR               
WILL MOVE IN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AT BOTH SITES.                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
LOOK FOR WINDS TO 25 KNOTS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 15 KNOTS OR LESS            
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS             
IN FROM THE WEST. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY AND LOW                   
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...GALES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS                
MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THESE GALES SHOULD DIMINISH WEST TO EAST                 
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC. EXPECT WINDS              
AT OR BELOW 30 KNOTS THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON               
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS                  
  MORNING FOR MIZ005.                                                           
LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS                  
  EVENING FOR MIZ006.                                                           
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR                       
  MIZ007-085.                                                                   
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 7PM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ263-264.                      
GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ266-267.                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...TAG                                                       
MARINE...JV                                                                     
AVIATION...MICHELS                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
641 PM EST TUE JAN 1 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
21Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED A LARGE               
TROUGH OVER THE EAST PACIFIC...STRONG RIDGING DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT            
OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA...AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE REST OF NORTH             
AMERICA. BETWEEN THE WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH...A BROAD                 
120-140 KT JET EXISTS NEAR 200MB FROM SASKATCHEWAN INTO OKLAHOMA.               
WITHIN THE TROUGH...THE MAIN FEATURES TO NOTE ARE A 525 DAM LOW IN              
NW ILLINOIS...A VERY WEAK RIDGE OVER NW ONTARIO...AND A SHRTWV                  
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH MANITOBA. RELATIVELY CHILLY 850MB TEMPS HAVE             
MOVED INTO THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW TO OUR SW...WITH              
READINGS AT 12Z OF -14C AT GRB...-17C AT MPX AND -19C AT INL. THESE             
COOLER 850MB TEMPS...ALONG WITH ADVECTION OF MOISTURE OF THE INL                
SOUNDING...ARE HELPING TO PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS               
LAKE SUPERIOR. ORIENTATION OF THE LAKE EFFECT THROUGH THE MUCH OF               
THE DAY HAS BEEN NW TO SE...DUE TO THE CWA BEING ON THE SOUTH SIDE              
OF A TROUGH OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS LONGER PERIOD OF                   
SUSTAINED NW WINDS HAD RESULTED IN 6 INCHES OF SNOW IN ROCKLAND                 
BETWEEN 9 AM AND 1230 PM...PRIMARILY DUE TO A DOMINANT BAND THAT                
DEVELOPED. HOWEVER...THIS TROUGH IS FINALLY DROPPING SOUTH...WITH NE            
WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND IT OVER THE KEWEENAW AND EASTERN LAKE                   
SUPERIOR. ALONG THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE IS A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY            
SNOWFALL ON RADAR...WHICH BROUGHT VSBYS DOWN TO 1/4SM OR LESS AT                
MOHAWK PER SPOTTER REPORT. ISSUED AN SPS FOR MARQUETTE AND ALGER                
COUNTIES TO ALERT ABOUT THIS BAND. COLDER AIR EXISTS UPSTREAM UNDER             
THE SHRTWV DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS MANITOBA...NOTED BY SURFACE TEMPS              
STRUGGLING TO GET MUCH ABOVE ZERO. SOME MOISTURE IS ALSO PRESENT                
WITH THIS SHRTWV WITH LIGHT SNOW REPORTS. BEHIND THIS SHRTWV...A                
LARGE AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE ROCKIES INTO                
SASKATCHEWAN.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WED)...                                            
TONIGHT...SHRTWV OVER MANITOBA WILL DROP SE INTO IOWA BY 12Z...                 
HOWEVER THE GENERAL TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH IT SHOULD MOVE INTO               
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WEAK RIDGE              
TO MOVE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...CAUSING PRESSURE RISES AT THE SURFACE              
OVER NE ONTARIO...AND THUS A CONTINUED FORCING MECHANISM TO KEEP THE            
TROUGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR DROPPING SOUTH. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS              
BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL FAVOR BANDS INTO THE FAR WEST AND NORTH                  
CENTRAL U.P....WHERE HEADLINES ARE UP. SOME DRY AIR ENTERING THE                
PICTURE AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE FROM THE WEAK UPPER              
RIDGE...SHOULD CAUSE THE LAKE EFFECT TO DIMINISH SOME. THIS IS                  
REFLECTED WELL IN MODEL QPFS AND THE FORECAST. THE DRY AIR WILL BE              
TEMPORARY...WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGHING LATE. THIS                 
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD CAUSE WINDS TO BACK NW...FAVORING SOME LIGHT                
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE KEWEENAW AND EVENTUALLY AREAS EAST OF                     
MUNISING. HOWEVER...THE NW WIND IS NOT GOOD FOR MARQUETTE COUNTY...             
AND THUS THE GOING ADVISORY END TIME OF 12Z WED STILL LOOKS GOOD.               
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE CWA SHOULD KEEP BOTH CLOUDS AND WARMER LAKE             
SUPERIOR AIR FLOWING ACROSS. THE COLDEST SPOT SHOULD BE OUT IN IWD              
WHERE NW WINDS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT DRAG IN COLDER AIR FROM WI.            
WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE               
DAY...WITH FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE HEIGHT RISES DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z.                 
THESE HEIGHT RISES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE.               
HOWEVER...UNTIL THE HEIGHT RISES OCCUR...NW WINDS WITH LAKE EFFECT              
SNOW ARE EXPECTED. MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE A NW TO SE TROUGH                    
ORIENTED AGAIN FROM THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW INTO THE EASTERN CWA                
DURING THE DAY. THE LOCAL WRF-ARW ACTUALLY DEVELOPS FAIRLY STRONG               
CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS TROUGH INTO LUCE COUNTY...WHICH WOULD RESULT             
IN SOME DECENT QPF. ALSO...WITH COLDER 850MB AIR MOVING IN ON THE               
ORDER OF -18 TO -20C WITH THE TROUGH AND NOT TO STRONG OF WINDS...30            
TO 1 SNOWFALL RATIOS ARE LIKELY. IF THE LOCAL WRF-ARW RUN IS                    
CORRECT...WE COULD BE DEALING WITH WARNING CRITERIA FOR LUCE COUNTY.            
HOWEVER...FEEL IT IS PROBABLY OVERDONE...AND WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY              
REGARDING THE TROUGH PLACEMENT...HAVE CUT THE AMOUNTS BACK. STILL...            
FIGURED AN ADVISORY FOR ALGER...LUCE AND NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT                   
COUNTIES IS WARRANTED. SNOW SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON                    
EVERYWHERE AS THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR MOVE IN. TEMPS WILL BE                 
CHILLY GIVEN THE COLD 850MB READINGS MENTIONED EARLY. GOING FORECAST            
TEMPS SEEMED REASONABLE...WITH THE WARMEST READINGS ALONG LAKE MI               
WHERE NW WINDS DOWNSLOPE...AND ALONG THE EASTERN U.P. SHORELINE WITH            
THE MARINE INFLUENCE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)...                            
WED NIGHT...850 MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -18C EARLY IN THE NIGHT TO              
SUPPORT RESIDUAL LES FOR NW WIND FAVORED AREAS...BUT TAPER OFF BY               
EARLY MORNING AS WINDS BACK AND BECOME SOUTHERLY. MAY NEED TO CUT               
BACK GOING POPS FOR LATE WED NIGHT IN NEXT FORECAST UPDATE. WITH                
COLD AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE...LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE...AND                  
DECOUPLED WINDS BEFORE THE STRONGER SW FLOW GETS HERE LATE WILL                 
ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS INLAND WEST AREAS OVERNIGHT.              
THU...DESPITE STRONG WAA AND WSW 850MB WINDS TO 60 KT...MODELS STILL            
INDICATE VERY DRY AIR AT ALL LEVELS...SO CONTINUED NO PCPN CHANCE               
THU THROUGH FRI. HOWEVER...GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW SHALLOW MOISTURE             
FROM 00Z FRI ONWARD. KEPT WITH DRY FCST AND 60 PERCENT CLOUD                    
COVER...BUT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF THERE WILL BE FOG...DRIZZLE OR             
LOW CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH.                                                     
THU THROUGH SAT...STRONG WAA WSW FLOW TAKES OVER AS A MID LEVEL                 
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WRN CONUS AND A BROAD/FLAT RIDGE EXPANDS INTO             
THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES. MDLS MOISTURE FIELDS SUGGEST THAT THE               
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN TO DRY TO SUPPORT MEASURABLE PCPN.                          
ON A SIMILAR NOTE...I REMOVED PCPN CHANCE (SCHC -SN -ZR) FOR 00Z-12Z            
SAT. THERE COULD BE A CHANCE FOR SOME SORT OF DRIZZLE OR FREEZING               
DRIZZLE WITH THE MILD TEMPS (> -10C)...BUT SINCE OMEGA VALUES ARE SO            
HIGH AND MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW...RULED OUT CHANCE OF RAIN.                   
THE BETTER FORCING COMES ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE AFTER 12Z SAT. DUE              
TO A PERSISTENT 850-700 DRY LAYER...KEPT SCHC ZL FOR SAT MORNING                
BEFORE CHANGING IT OVER TO SCHC -RA IN THE AFTERNOON AS GREATER                 
FORCING AND MORE MOISTURE BECOMES AVAILABLE. THE MORNING ZL MAY NEED            
TO BE CHANGED TO L IN A FCST UPDATE...BUT FOR NOW...EXPECTING THE               
TEMPS TO BE LOW ENOUGH IN THE MORNING TO SUPPORT THE ZL.                        
SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL             
BE A BROADSCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND RIDGE IN THE                
EAST. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL FORM ALONG THE INFLECTION. THE                    
TIMING...STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE SHORTWAVES ARE DEBATABLE. THE             
GFS 12Z MODEL CAME IN WITH A DEEP...CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN                
PLAINS ON MON. MOST CANADIAN HINTS AT A CLOSED LOW BUT IT IS MUCH               
WEAKER. ECMWF SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FOR               
THE SUNDAY TIME PERIOD. KEPT CHC RAIN GOING FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH               
TUE MORNING. INCREASED POPS MON AFTERNOON AND EVE...ESPECIALLY OVER             
THE WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL AGREEMENT OF SOME GENERAL PRECIP                  
EVENT. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS GREATER THAN 1500 SUPPORT RAIN THROUGH             
THIS TIME PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS BARELY DROP TO FREEZING EACH NIGHT.            
SOME OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS EVEN SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS WITH A             
STRONG SRLY LOW LEVEL JET AND SHOWALTER VALUES AROUND -1 OVER THE               
SOUTH AND WEST...AND 850 MB DEWPOINTS NEAR 8C.                                  
THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUE. TIMING              
IS UNCERTAIN...OF COURSE...SO INTRODUCED A TREND OF RAIN CHANGING               
OVER TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY AND BECOMING ALL SNOW             
OVERNIGHT.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
TAF FORECASTS ARE ALL ABOUT LAKE EFFECT TRENDS FOR THE NEXT 24                  
HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR FOR THE MOST PART WITH IFR IN THE                
HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT BANDS FOR VISIBILITIES. CIGS SHOULD STAY IN THE             
MVFR RANGE. WINDS ARE PROGGED TO SWITCH NW LATE TONIGHT INTO                    
WED...WHICH WILL FAVOR KCMX DROPPING BACK DOWN TO IFR VSBYS                     
AGAIN...AND ALLOW KSAW TO CLIMB BACK UP.                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA INTO LUCE COUNTY WILL                
DROP SOUTH THIS EVENING. WINDS OF 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND                     
IT...WHICH COMBINED WITH COLD AIR FLOWING OFF THE MN ARROWHEAD COULD            
HELP SUPPORT HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY OVER FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR                
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOOK FOR WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH            
THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH                   
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST ON             
THURSDAY AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...GALES ARE               
LIKELY ON ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THESE GALES SHOULD DIMINISH WEST TO             
EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC. EXPECT               
WINDS AT OR BELOW 30 KNOTS THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE STRONG WINDS ON            
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST / 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR            
  MIZ002-009.                                                                   
LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST                       
  WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ005.                                                         
LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST                       
  WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ006.                                                         
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 AM EST TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR               
  MIZ007-085.                                                                   
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR             
  LSZ162.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE...AJ                                                 
LONG TERM...MRC                                                                 
AVIATION...AJ                                                                   
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1255 PM EST TUE JAN 1 2008                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE...AND THE UPDATE                  
SECTION ABOUT AN UPGRADED HAZARD.                                               
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MADE A QUICK CALL OUT TO ROCKLAND AND ONTONAGON IN ONTONAGON COUNTY             
TO SEE HOW MUCH SNOW HAS OCCURRED WITH THE BAND THAT HAS REMAINED               
NEARLY STATIONARY SINCE EARLIER THIS MORNING. SINCE 9 AM...ONTONAGON            
HAS ONLY PICKED UP AN INCH OR TWO...BUT THE HIGHER ELEVATION OF                 
ROCKLAND HAS RESULTED IN 6 INCHES THERE. SINCE THE LATEST RUC 13                
FROM NCEP DEPICTS THE BAND NOT MOVING SOUTH UNTIL 21 OR 22Z...GIVEN             
THE SLOW DROPPING SOUTH MOTION OF THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN LAKE                  
SUPERIOR...THE ROCKLAND AND MASS CITY AREAS WILL REACH WARNING                  
CRITERIA. THUS...HAVE UPGRADED ONTONAGON COUNTY TO A WARNING.                   
PREVIOUS UPDATE ISSUED AT 1151 AM...                                            
MAIN ISSUE WITH THE FORECAST HAS BEEN LAKE EFFECT TRENDS...WHICH                
HAVE BEEN GOING A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY PLANNED. SURFACE                   
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM JUST OFF THE TIP OF THE                
KEWEENAW TO IN-BETWEEN MUNISING AND GRAND MARAIS...AND THEN SE INTO             
NORTHERN LOWER MI. NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS TROUGH              
HAVE BEEN BRINGING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FROM IWD UP THROUGH THE             
KEWEENAW AS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...FLOW AS                
BEEN BACKING A LITTLE MORE WESTERLY OVER NORTHERN WI INTO THE WI                
BORDER COUNTIES...AND THIS HAS CAUSED DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN AND NOW              
THE SNOW IS DIMINISHING IN IWD. 12Z SOUNDING FROM GRB AND 14Z TAMDAR            
SOUNDING FROM RHI DEPICT THIS DRY AIR BY ONLY HAVING A THIN                     
SATURATED LAYER AROUND 850MB. AROUND THE TROUGH...A MESO-LOW CAN BE             
SEEN OFF THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW...WHICH IS GRADUALLY DROPPING SOUTH            
TOWARDS MARQUETTE COUNTY. NORTHEAST ORIENTED BANDS CAN BE SEEN                  
FORMING BEHIND THE MESO-LOW.                                                    
THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH IS CRITICAL TO THE                      
FORECAST...AS THE LONGER THE NORTHWEST WINDS STICK AROUND...THE                 
GREATER POTENTIAL ONTONAGON COUNTY HAS OF REACHING WARNING AND                  
LESSER POTENTIAL FOR GOGEBIC COUNTY TO REACH WARNING. THE 12Z                   
CANADIAN FROM YESTERDAY WAS FIRST TO PRESENT THIS IDEA OF A SLOWER              
TROUGH PASSAGE...AND THIS SEEMS TO BE PANNING OUT. THEREFORE HAVE               
INCREASED AMOUNTS A BIT IN ONTONAGON COUNTY...BUT KEPT THEM BELOW               
WARNING...SINCE ONCE THE TROUGH PASSES THIS AFTERNOON THE                       
CONVERGENCE WEAKENS THERE. THE KEWEENAW STILL LOOKS FINE NOT IN                 
ADVISORY AS WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE NNE SOON...WHICH IS A                 
GENERAL BAD WIND DIRECTION THERE FOR LAKE EFFECT. DELAYED TIMING OF             
THE SNOW INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P. WITH THE SLOWER TROUGH PASSAGE.            
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A MESO-LOW...EXPECT SOME HEAVY                  
SNOWFALL RATES ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES IN LATE TODAY (PER MOVEMENT                
EXTRAPOLATION). FARTHER EAST...WAS TEMPTED TO HOIST AN ADVISORY FOR             
LUCE COUNTY WITH A BAND ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH THAT HAS                 
REMAINED GENERALLY STATIONARY THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.                      
HOWEVER...WITH CONVERGENCE WEAKENING A LOT THIS AFTERNOON...                    
ESPECIALLY WHEN WINDS TURN NE LATE...ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD            
BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. DIMINISHED CLOUD COVER AND PCPN IN THE SOUTH              
CENTRAL U.P. WITH WNW WINDS HOLDING DRY AIR IN THERE. CLOUD COVER               
AND SNOW SHOULD PICK UP LATE IN DICKINSON/IRON WHEN THE TROUGH MOVES            
IN.                                                                             
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE TONIGHT FORECAST.                                        
&&                                                                              
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
IR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW                   
DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH A BROAD TROUGH             
ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO                
LOWER MICHIGAN IS TOUCHING OFF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN                
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. A BROAD RIDGE IS PUSHING ONSHORE ALONG THE WEST              
COAST. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS DEEPENING ACROSS THE OHIO               
RIVER VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE                 
LENGTH OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODELS SHOW VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A                      
CONVERGENCE AREA ALREADY PRESENT AT 12Z ALONG THE WESTERN LAKE                  
SUPERIOR SHORELINE. CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED THE BEST IN                 
GOGEBIC AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES...WHICH IS ALSO REFLECTED BY THE                 
WARNING IN EFFECT FOR GOGEBIC COUNTY. NAM AND LOCAL HI-RES WRF-ARW              
MODEL BOTH SHOW THE FAVORED CONVERGENCE ZONE MOVING OUT OF ONTONAGON            
COUNTY AND INTO GOGEBIC COUNTY BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. AM SOMEWHAT                 
CONCERNED THAT AN ISOLATED LOCATION IN WESTERN ONTONAGON COUNTY                 
MIGHT SEE WARNING CRITERIA...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO NOT UPGRADE THAT               
COUNTY. CONVERGENCE BEGINS TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AT THE             
SAME TIME THAT OMEGA VALUES BEGIN TO DECREASE. WINDS WILL STILL                 
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED LES AT REDUCED RATES...AND INVERSION             
HEIGHTS WILL BECOME TO COME DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT.  HEADLINES EXPIRING            
AT 06Z WEDNESDAY LOOKS FINE.                                                    
MODELS SHOW A SECOND MAJOR AREA OF 950MB CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING                 
ALONG THE MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTY SHORELINES IN THE LATE MORNING             
AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ALTHOUGH GREATEST VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE            
JUST BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WINDS VEERING FROM NORTHWEST             
TO NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE MAXIMUM FETCH OVER LAKE                  
SUPERIOR AND BEST CHANCES FOR HIGH SNOWFALL RATES IN MARQUETTE                  
COUNTY. OVERNIGHT WINDS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AGAIN...SHIFTING AREAS            
OF BEST CONVERGENCE EAST INTO ALGER COUNTY.                                     
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY GUSTY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WHICH                
SHOULD RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SHORELINE.  IN              
ADDITION...HIGHER WIND SPEEDS SHOULD HELP A BIT WITH COMPACTION OF              
SNOWPACK...AND SHOULD PREVENT SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS FROM CREEPING INTO             
THE 30:1 RANGE.  PREVIOUS FORECAST USED RATIOS OF 25:1...AND WILL               
CONTINUE THAT IN THIS FORECAST. OVERALL...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS            
TIME PERIOD WERE ONLY SLIGHTLY MODIFIED.                                        
WEDNESDAY...AS WINDS SHIFT MORE TO A WEST-NORTHWEST                             
DIRECTION...SNOWFALL SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF ALONG THE WESTERN                
LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE AS A RESULT OF THE SHORTER FETCH. CONDITIONS            
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR ALGER COUNTY TO PICK UP ADDITIONAL                           
SNOWFALL...WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES DURING THE                  
DAY...SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  LATER SHIFTS MAY             
NEED TO DETERMINE WHETHER THE ADVISORY IN ALGER COUNTY WOULD NEED TO            
BE EXTENDED LONGER THAN 12Z...ALTHOUGH THIS ENDING TIME APPEARS TO              
BE SUFFICIENT FOR MARQUETTE COUNTY.                                             
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS APPEAR TO BE                            
SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH MOVING THE RIDGE INTO THE AREA...AND THEREFORE             
LES MIGHT PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. WITH CLOUDS TAKING LONGER             
TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA...LOW TEMPERATURES MIGHT NOT BOTTOM OUT                 
QUITE AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH               
THE AREA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE                    
PRECIPITATION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE LIKELY.                                     
FRIDAY NIGHT...GOING FORECAST FOR SLIGHT POPS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE               
AND/OR SNOW STILL LOOKS ON TARGET. SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY MID LEVELS                
WITH SHALLOW NEAR-SURFACE SATURATED LAYER. WITH CLOUD TOPS NO HIGHER            
THAN ABOUT -5C...FROZEN PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD HAVE A                
BETTER CHANCE OF OCCURRING.  HOWEVER...GFS ONLY HAS ONE OR TWO                  
HUNDREDTHS OF PRECIP AT THAT TIME...WITH THE ECMWF ONLY PUTTING                 
PRECIP OUT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN. AT THIS                     
POINT...SEE NO NEED TO MAKE ANY CHANGES.                                        
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY NIGHT.                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
TAF FORECASTS ARE ALL ABOUT LAKE EFFECT TRENDS FOR THE NEXT 24                  
HOURS...AND AT LEAST IN THE VERY SHORT TERM ARE DEPENDENT ON THE                
TIMING OF A TROUGH AT 1730Z FROM THE KEWEENAW INTO ALGER COUNTY                 
DROPPING SOUTH. ALONG THIS TROUGH...A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW IS                     
INDICATED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY. EXTRAPOLATION OF THIS                 
TROUGH WOULD BRING IT TO CMX AROUND 19Z AND SAW AROUND 00Z. BEFORE              
THE TROUGH ARRIVES...NW ORIENTED LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS/SNOW SHOWER                 
BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT BOTH SITES...WITH CMX EXPERIENCING THE            
LOWEST VSBYS BECAUSE OF THEIR CLOSER PROXIMITY. NW WINDS DOWNSLOPE              
AT SAW...SO MVFR VSBYS ARE THE WORST EXPECTED...AND MAY STAY VFR FOR            
VSBY THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. WHEN THE TROUGH MOVES IN...VSBY             
WILL LIKELY DROP RAPIDLY...AND INDICATED THIS IN THE TAFS BY EITHER             
LIFR OR VLIFR VSBYS...ALONG WITH AN IFR OR LIFR CIG. IN THE WAKE OF             
THE TROUGH...WINDS TURN NNE FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT...WHICH FAVORS            
SAW TO EXPERIENCE LOWER VSBYS...LIKELY IFR. WINDS ARE PROGGED TO                
SWITCH NW LATE TONIGHT INTO WED...WHICH WILL FAVOR CMX DROPPING BACK            
DOWN TO IFR VSBYS AGAIN...AND ALLOWING SAW TO CLIMB BACK UP. CIGS IN            
GENERAL SHOULD REMAIN MVFR FOR THE OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING WITH              
COLD ADVECTION PREVENTING ANY LOWER DECKS FROM FORMING.                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR              
WILL DROP SE TODAY NIGHT AND TUE. COLD AIR FLOWING IN AND PRESSURES             
RISING RAPIDLY BEHIND THIS LOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE 30 KT WINDS TODAY            
WITH EVEN A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW            
25 KT FOR WED AFTERNOON THROUGH WED NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH                    
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. BEHIND THIS HIGH...A TIGHTENING               
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED ON THU AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS               
CENTRAL CANADA. SW WINDS STILL LOOK LIKE THEY WILL INCREASE TO GALES            
ON LAKE SUPERIOR FOR THU INTO THU NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH CENTRAL              
AND EAST AREAS. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 30 KT OR LESS FOR FRI               
INTO SAT AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST...BUT A SOMEWHAT TIGHT                    
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST / 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR            
  MIZ002-009.                                                                   
LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST                       
  WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ005-006.                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...AJ                                                                     
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...TAG                                                       
AVIATION...AJ                                                                   
MARINE...JV                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1151 AM EST TUE JAN 1 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MAIN ISSUE WITH THE FORECAST HAS BEEN LAKE EFFECT TRENDS...WHICH                
HAVE BEEN GOING A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY PLANNED. SURFACE                   
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM JUST OFF THE TIP OF THE                
KEWEENAW TO IN-BETWEEN MUNISING AND GRAND MARAIS...AND THEN SE INTO             
NORTHERN LOWER MI. NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS TROUGH              
HAVE BEEN BRINGING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FROM IWD UP THROUGH THE             
KEWEENAW AS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...FLOW AS                
BEEN BACKING A LITTLE MORE WESTERLY OVER NORTHERN WI INTO THE WI                
BORDER COUNTIES...AND THIS HAS CAUSED DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN AND NOW              
THE SNOW IS DIMINISHING IN IWD. 12Z SOUNDING FROM GRB AND 14Z TAMDAR            
SOUNDING FROM RHI DEPICT THIS DRY AIR BY ONLY HAVING A THIN                     
SATURATED LAYER AROUND 850MB. AROUND THE TROUGH...A MESO-LOW CAN BE             
SEEN OFF THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW...WHICH IS GRADUALLY DROPPING SOUTH            
TOWARDS MARQUETTE COUNTY. NORTHEAST ORIENTED BANDS CAN BE SEEN                  
FORMING BEHIND THE MESO-LOW.                                                    
THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH IS CRITICAL TO THE                      
FORECAST...AS THE LONGER THE NORTHWEST WINDS STICK AROUND...THE                 
GREATER POTENTIAL ONTONAGON COUNTY HAS OF REACHING WARNING AND                  
LESSER POTENTIAL FOR GOGEBIC COUNTY TO REACH WARNING. THE 12Z                   
CANADIAN FROM YESTERDAY WAS FIRST TO PRESENT THIS IDEA OF A SLOWER              
TROUGH PASSAGE...AND THIS SEEMS TO BE PANNING OUT. THEREFORE HAVE               
INCREASED AMOUNTS A BIT IN ONTONAGON COUNTY...BUT KEPT THEM BELOW               
WARNING...SINCE ONCE THE TROUGH PASSES THIS AFTERNOON THE                       
CONVERGENCE WEAKENS THERE. THE KEWEENAW STILL LOOKS FINE NOT IN                 
ADVISORY AS WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE NNE SOON...WHICH IS A                 
GENERAL BAD WIND DIRECTION THERE FOR LAKE EFFECT. DELAYED TIMING OF             
THE SNOW INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P. WITH THE SLOWER TROUGH PASSAGE.            
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A MESO-LOW...EXPECT SOME HEAVY                  
SNOWFALL RATES ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES IN LATE TODAY (PER MOVEMENT                
EXTRAPOLATION). FARTHER EAST...WAS TEMPTED TO HOIST AN ADVISORY FOR             
LUCE COUNTY WITH A BAND ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH THAT HAS                 
REMAINED GENERALLY STATIONARY THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.                      
HOWEVER...WITH CONVERGENCE WEAKENING A LOT THIS AFTERNOON...                    
ESPECIALLY WHEN WINDS TURN NE LATE...ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD            
BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. DIMINISHED CLOUD COVER AND PCPN IN THE SOUTH              
CENTRAL U.P. WITH WNW WINDS HOLDING DRY AIR IN THERE. CLOUD COVER               
AND SNOW SHOULD PICK UP LATE IN DICKINSON/IRON WHEN THE TROUGH MOVES            
IN.                                                                             
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE TONIGHT FORECAST.                                        
&&                                                                              
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
IR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW                   
DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH A BROAD TROUGH             
ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO                
LOWER MICHIGAN IS TOUCHING OFF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN                
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. A BROAD RIDGE IS PUSHING ONSHORE ALONG THE WEST              
COAST. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS DEEPENING ACROSS THE OHIO               
RIVER VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE                 
LENGTH OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODELS SHOW VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A                      
CONVERGENCE AREA ALREADY PRESENT AT 12Z ALONG THE WESTERN LAKE                  
SUPERIOR SHORELINE. CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED THE BEST IN                 
GOGEBIC AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES...WHICH IS ALSO REFLECTED BY THE                 
WARNING IN EFFECT FOR GOGEBIC COUNTY. NAM AND LOCAL HI-RES WRF-ARW              
MODEL BOTH SHOW THE FAVORED CONVERGENCE ZONE MOVING OUT OF ONTONAGON            
COUNTY AND INTO GOGEBIC COUNTY BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. AM SOMEWHAT                 
CONCERNED THAT AN ISOLATED LOCATION IN WESTERN ONTONAGON COUNTY                 
MIGHT SEE WARNING CRITERIA...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO NOT UPGRADE THAT               
COUNTY. CONVERGENCE BEGINS TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AT THE             
SAME TIME THAT OMEGA VALUES BEGIN TO DECREASE. WINDS WILL STILL                 
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED LES AT REDUCED RATES...AND INVERSION             
HEIGHTS WILL BECOME TO COME DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT.  HEADLINES EXPIRING            
AT 06Z WEDNESDAY LOOKS FINE.                                                    
MODELS SHOW A SECOND MAJOR AREA OF 950MB CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING                 
ALONG THE MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTY SHORELINES IN THE LATE MORNING             
AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ALTHOUGH GREATEST VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE            
JUST BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WINDS VEERING FROM NORTHWEST             
TO NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE MAXIMUM FETCH OVER LAKE                  
SUPERIOR AND BEST CHANCES FOR HIGH SNOWFALL RATES IN MARQUETTE                  
COUNTY. OVERNIGHT WINDS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AGAIN...SHIFTING AREAS            
OF BEST CONVERGENCE EAST INTO ALGER COUNTY.                                     
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY GUSTY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WHICH                
SHOULD RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SHORELINE.  IN              
ADDITION...HIGHER WIND SPEEDS SHOULD HELP A BIT WITH COMPACTION OF              
SNOWPACK...AND SHOULD PREVENT SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS FROM CREEPING INTO             
THE 30:1 RANGE.  PREVIOUS FORECAST USED RATIOS OF 25:1...AND WILL               
CONTINUE THAT IN THIS FORECAST. OVERALL...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS            
TIME PERIOD WERE ONLY SLIGHTLY MODIFIED.                                        
WEDNESDAY...AS WINDS SHIFT MORE TO A WEST-NORTHWEST                             
DIRECTION...SNOWFALL SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF ALONG THE WESTERN                
LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE AS A RESULT OF THE SHORTER FETCH. CONDITIONS            
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR ALGER COUNTY TO PICK UP ADDITIONAL                           
SNOWFALL...WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES DURING THE                  
DAY...SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  LATER SHIFTS MAY             
NEED TO DETERMINE WHETHER THE ADVISORY IN ALGER COUNTY WOULD NEED TO            
BE EXTENDED LONGER THAN 12Z...ALTHOUGH THIS ENDING TIME APPEARS TO              
BE SUFFICIENT FOR MARQUETTE COUNTY.                                             
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS APPEAR TO BE                            
SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH MOVING THE RIDGE INTO THE AREA...AND THEREFORE             
LES MIGHT PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. WITH CLOUDS TAKING LONGER             
TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA...LOW TEMPERATURES MIGHT NOT BOTTOM OUT                 
QUITE AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH               
THE AREA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE                    
PRECIPITATION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE LIKELY.                                     
FRIDAY NIGHT...GOING FORECAST FOR SLIGHT POPS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE               
AND/OR SNOW STILL LOOKS ON TARGET. SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY MID LEVELS                
WITH SHALLOW NEAR-SURFACE SATURATED LAYER. WITH CLOUD TOPS NO HIGHER            
THAN ABOUT -5C...FROZEN PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD HAVE A                
BETTER CHANCE OF OCCURRING.  HOWEVER...GFS ONLY HAS ONE OR TWO                  
HUNDREDTHS OF PRECIP AT THAT TIME...WITH THE ECMWF ONLY PUTTING                 
PRECIP OUT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN. AT THIS                     
POINT...SEE NO NEED TO MAKE ANY CHANGES.                                        
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY NIGHT.                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR AT KCMX BY LATE                   
MORNING AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHIFTS FROM NORTHWEST TO MORE                    
FAVORABLE NORTHERLY DIRECTION BEHIND TROUGH PASSAGE. COLDER AIR                 
BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO BETTER SNOWFLAKE GROWTH AND                
INCREASED MIXING WILL IN TANDEM WILL LEAD TO LOWER VSBYS IN SNOW AND            
BLOWING SNOW. VFR CONDITIONS AT KSAW WILL ALSO LOWER TO IFR BY                  
MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITH PASSAGE OF TROUGH AND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY                
WIND DIRECTION.                                                                 
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR BY LATE EVENING AT BOTH TAF                
SITES AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND LES               
BANDS WEAKEN SOME. MVFR VSBYS AT KCMX MAY DIP DOWN TO IFR AFT 08Z               
WED AS A WEAK CLIPPER SHORTWAVE COULD ENHANCE LES BANDS. EXPECT                 
VSBYS TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT KSAW BY 08Z AS WINDS BACK NORTHWEST AND              
LES DIMINISHES TO FLURRIES.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR              
WILL DROP SE TODAY NIGHT AND TUE. COLD AIR FLOWING IN AND PRESSURES             
RISING RAPIDLY BEHIND THIS LOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE 30 KT WINDS TODAY            
WITH EVEN A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW            
25 KT FOR WED AFTERNOON THROUGH WED NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH                    
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. BEHIND THIS HIGH...A TIGHTENING               
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED ON THU AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS               
CENTRAL CANADA. SW WINDS STILL LOOK LIKE THEY WILL INCREASE TO GALES            
ON LAKE SUPERIOR FOR THU INTO THU NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH CENTRAL              
AND EAST AREAS. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 30 KT OR LESS FOR FRI               
INTO SAT AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST...BUT A SOMEWHAT TIGHT                    
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MIZ009.                 
LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY             
  FOR MIZ002.                                                                   
LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING              
  TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ005-006.                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...AJ                                                                     
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...TAG                                                       
AVIATION...JV                                                                   
MARINE...JV                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
730 AM EST TUE JAN 1 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
IR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW                   
DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH A BROAD TROUGH             
ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO                
LOWER MICHIGAN IS TOUCHING OFF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN                
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. A BROAD RIDGE IS PUSHING ONSHORE ALONG THE WEST              
COAST. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS DEEPENING ACROSS THE OHIO               
RIVER VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE                 
LENGTH OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODELS SHOW VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A                      
CONVERGENCE AREA ALREADY PRESENT AT 12Z ALONG THE WESTERN LAKE                  
SUPERIOR SHORELINE. CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED THE BEST IN                 
GOGEBIC AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES...WHICH IS ALSO REFLECTED BY THE                 
WARNING IN EFFECT FOR GOGEBIC COUNTY. NAM AND LOCAL HI-RES WRF-ARW              
MODEL BOTH SHOW THE FAVORED CONVERGENCE ZONE MOVING OUT OF ONTONAGON            
COUNTY AND INTO GOGEBIC COUNTY BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. AM SOMEWHAT                 
CONCERNED THAT AN ISOLATED LOCATION IN WESTERN ONTONAGON COUNTY                 
MIGHT SEE WARNING CRITERIA...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO NOT UPGRADE THAT               
COUNTY. CONVERGENCE BEGINS TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AT THE             
SAME TIME THAT OMEGA VALUES BEGIN TO DECREASE. WINDS WILL STILL                 
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED LES AT REDUCED RATES...AND INVERSION             
HEIGHTS WILL BECOME TO COME DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT.  HEADLINES EXPIRING            
AT 06Z WEDNESDAY LOOKS FINE.                                                    
MODELS SHOW A SECOND MAJOR AREA OF 950MB CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING                 
ALONG THE MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTY SHORELINES IN THE LATE MORNING             
AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ALTHOUGH GREATEST VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE            
JUST BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WINDS VEERING FROM NORTHWEST             
TO NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE MAXIMUM FETCH OVER LAKE                  
SUPERIOR AND BEST CHANCES FOR HIGH SNOWFALL RATES IN MARQUETTE                  
COUNTY. OVERNIGHT WINDS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AGAIN...SHIFTING AREAS            
OF BEST CONVERGENCE EAST INTO ALGER COUNTY.                                     
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY GUSTY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WHICH                
SHOULD RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SHORELINE.  IN              
ADDITION...HIGHER WIND SPEEDS SHOULD HELP A BIT WITH COMPACTION OF              
SNOWPACK...AND SHOULD PREVENT SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS FROM CREEPING INTO             
THE 30:1 RANGE.  PREVIOUS FORECAST USED RATIOS OF 25:1...AND WILL               
CONTINUE THAT IN THIS FORECAST. OVERALL...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS            
TIME PERIOD WERE ONLY SLIGHTLY MODIFIED.                                        
WEDNESDAY...AS WINDS SHIFT MORE TO A WEST-NORTHWEST                             
DIRECTION...SNOWFALL SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF ALONG THE WESTERN                
LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE AS A RESULT OF THE SHORTER FETCH. CONDITIONS            
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR ALGER COUNTY TO PICK UP ADDITIONAL                           
SNOWFALL...WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES DURING THE                  
DAY...SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  LATER SHIFTS MAY             
NEED TO DETERMINE WHETHER THE ADVISORY IN ALGER COUNTY WOULD NEED TO            
BE EXTENDED LONGER THAN 12Z...ALTHOUGH THIS ENDING TIME APPEARS TO              
BE SUFFICIENT FOR MARQUETTE COUNTY.                                             
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS APPEAR TO BE                            
SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH MOVING THE RIDGE INTO THE AREA...AND THEREFORE             
LES MIGHT PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. WITH CLOUDS TAKING LONGER             
TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA...LOW TEMPERATURES MIGHT NOT BOTTOM OUT                 
QUITE AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH               
THE AREA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE                    
PRECIPITATION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE LIKELY.                                     
FRIDAY NIGHT...GOING FORECAST FOR SLIGHT POPS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE               
AND/OR SNOW STILL LOOKS ON TARGET. SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY MID LEVELS                
WITH SHALLOW NEAR-SURFACE SATURATED LAYER. WITH CLOUD TOPS NO HIGHER            
THAN ABOUT -5C...FROZEN PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD HAVE A                
BETTER CHANCE OF OCCURRING.  HOWEVER...GFS ONLY HAS ONE OR TWO                  
HUNDREDTHS OF PRECIP AT THAT TIME...WITH THE ECMWF ONLY PUTTING                 
PRECIP OUT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN. AT THIS                     
POINT...SEE NO NEED TO MAKE ANY CHANGES.                                        
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY NIGHT.                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR AT KCMX BY LATE                   
MORNING AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHIFTS FROM NORTHWEST TO MORE                    
FAVORABLE NORTHERLY DIRECTION BEHIND TROUGH PASSAGE. COLDER AIR                 
BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO BETTER SNOWFLAKE GROWTH AND                
INCREASED MIXING WILL IN TANDEM WILL LEAD TO LOWER VSBYS IN SNOW AND            
BLOWING SNOW. VFR CONDITIONS AT KSAW WILL ALSO LOWER TO IFR BY                  
MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITH PASSAGE OF TROUGH AND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY                
WIND DIRECTION.                                                                 
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR BY LATE EVENING AT BOTH TAF                
SITES AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND LES               
BANDS WEAKEN SOME. MVFR VSBYS AT KCMX MAY DIP DOWN TO IFR AFT 08Z               
WED AS A WEAK CLIPPER SHORTWAVE COULD ENHANCE LES BANDS. EXPECT                 
VSBYS TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT KSAW BY 08Z AS WINDS BACK NORTHWEST AND              
LES DIMINISHES TO FLURRIES.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR              
WILL DROP SE TODAY NIGHT AND TUE. COLD AIR FLOWING IN AND PRESSURES             
RISING RAPIDLY BEHIND THIS LOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE 30 KT WINDS TODAY            
WITH EVEN A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW            
25 KT FOR WED AFTERNOON THROUGH WED NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH                    
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. BEHIND THIS HIGH...A TIGHTENING               
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED ON THU AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS               
CENTRAL CANADA. SW WINDS STILL LOOK LIKE THEY WILL INCREASE TO GALES            
ON LAKE SUPERIOR FOR THU INTO THU NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH CENTRAL              
AND EAST AREAS. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 30 KT OR LESS FOR FRI               
INTO SAT AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST...BUT A SOMEWHAT TIGHT                    
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MIZ009.                 
LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY             
  FOR MIZ002.                                                                   
LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING              
  TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ005-006.                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...TAG                                                       
AVIATION...JV                                                                   
MARINE...JV                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
1007 PM CST TUE JAN 1 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...SNOW REALLY STARTING TO COME DOWN IN GILE/MONTREAL. OUR               
SNOW OBSERVER IN THAT AREA REPORTED 2 1/2 INCHES SINCE 6 PM WITH                
SNOW COMING DOWN HARD WITH LARGE FLAKES. THE CITY OF HURLEY                     
DOWNTOWN WEB CAM ALSO IS SHOWING SOME SQUALL LIKE BEHAVIOR...WITH               
VSBYS OCCASIONALLY RESTRICTED DUE TO FALLING SNOW. HOWEVER...IT                 
LOOKS LIKE AS OF 10 PM...THE BEST BANDS WERE PERHAPS WEST OF                    
HURLEY...IN THE MONTREAL AREA. SNOW SQUALLS STILL VISIBLE ON RADAR              
IMAGERY WITH 8-10K FT TOPS. MAY INCREASE AMOUNTS A TAD...GIVEN THE              
RATES OF ABOUT AN INCH AN HOUR...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY                 
HIGHER AMOUNTS IF THE BANDS CAN SUSTAIN THEMSELVES AND TRANSITION               
FROM MULTIPLE BANDS TO MORE SINGULAR CONVERGENT/LENSED BANDS.                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 908 PM CST TUE JAN 1 2008/                          
UPDATE...MAIN FOCUS OVERNIGHT IS ON LAKE EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH                 
SHORE. ZONES/GRIDS UPDATED EARLIER THIS EVENING AND ARE STILL ON                
TRACK...SO NO ZONE UPDATED NEEDED ATTM. WINDS ARE FINALLY                       
SWITCHING TO THE NORTH ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AS TROUGH                   
PASSES. SNOW HAS BEEN SLOW TO START...WITH GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES              
OF ACCUMULATION SO FAR. STILL A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR LAKE                  
EFFECT SNOW SQUALLS...WITH 88D SHOWING SEVERAL INTENSE BANDS                    
DEVELOPING OVER THE APOSTLE ISLANDS AND TOWARD ASHLAND/IRON                     
AND GOGEBIC COUNTIES. BEST WE CAN DETERMINE...WE ARE SEEING TOPS                
AROUND 8-10K FEET. HURLEY WEB CAM NOW SHOWING TOO MUCH YET...BUT                
WE SHOULD START SEEING AN INCREASE SHORTLY. IF WE CAN TRANSITION                
FROM MULTIPLE BAND TO A LARGER CONVERGENT/LENSING BAND OFF THE                  
BAYFIELD PENINSULA...RATES MAY BECOME EVEN GREATER FOR THE GOGEBIC              
RANGE AREA. WILL MAINTAIN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR ASHLAND              
AND IRON. BAYFIELD COUNTY HAS CONTINUED TO SEE LIGHT SNOW DURING                
THE EVENING...PER CONVERSATIONS WITH OUR OBSERVER IN HERBSTER...                
WITH A COUPLE INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW IN HERBSTER...AND LIKELY MOST               
ELSEWHERE IN THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA.                       
OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM SRN                 
MANITOBA OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD BRING SOME MORE CLOUDS ON                     
OCCASION. HAVE ADDED FLURRIES FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT ELSEWHERE               
BASED ON THE ARRIVAL OF THIS SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...A FAIR AMOUNT OF               
CLEAR SKIES IN BETWEEN FOR AN OVERALL PARTLY CLOUDY MOST AREAS.                 
WIND CHILL ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE                
TEENS BELOW ZER IN MUCH OF THE ADVISORY AREA AND WINDS GRADUALLY                
DIMINISHING.                                                                    
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CST TUE JAN 1 2008/                           
DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND                  
WIND CHILLS FOR TONIGHT. AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS                     
TROUGH STRETCHED ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN SLOW                
TO DROP SOUTHWARD...RESULTING IN A DELAY OF THE ONSET OF LAKE                   
EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. LATEST RUC FOLLOWS THE TROUGH                
PROGRESSION WELL AND SUGGESTS A BETTER SET UP WITH WIND FOR LES BY              
22-23Z AND ESPECIALLY MORE THIS EVENING. WILL LEAVE HEADLINES AS                
IS...BUT LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS TO DUE SHORTER DURATION OF THE HEAVIER              
LES.                                                                            
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...COLD AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES              
INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...LEAVING THE FA UNDER A 6-7MB                
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WITH COLDER AIRMASS /H85 TEMPS OF -13 TO             
-16C/ IN PLACE...WIND CHILLS DROP INTO THE -20 TO -30 DEGREES                   
FAHRENHEIT RANGE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. WILL POST A                 
WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONSEQUENTLY FOR AREAS THAT WILL BE COLD                    
ENOUGH AND HAVE STRONG ENOUGH WIND SUPPORT FOR DANGEROUS WIND                   
CHILLS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE DLH FA WILL STILL BE COLD AND SEE                  
WIND CHILLS OF -10 TO -25F.                                                     
LES SHOULD END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND                
WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. LARGE UPPER                 
RIDGE /CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS/ WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL            
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY STARTING WEDNESDAY...THUS STARTING A MAJOR               
WARM-UP FOR EARLY JANUARY. GFS SUGGESTS LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIP WITH            
SHORT WAVES ATOP THE RIDGE ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY...AND AGAIN FRIDAY              
NIGHT/SATURDAY. WILL LEAVE POPS OUT AT THIS TIME...BUT FLURRIES/FZDZ            
MAY BE NEEDED AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER              
WARM AIR INVERSION.                                                             
WARM-UP LASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH                   
SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTING UP ALOFT BY THE LATTER HALF. A STRONG LOW                
WILL AFFECT A GOOD PORTION OF THE CENTRAL CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK.                
THE TRACK IS UNCERTAIN ATTM...BUT RAIN LOOKS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE                
NORTHLAND.                                                                      
AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING                   
VFR CONDITIONS AND AN END TO -SN IN MN TAF SITES BY 0Z. VORT MAX                
MOVING INTO NW WISCONSIN WILL BRING OCCASIONAL -SN TO HYR UNTIL                 
0-3Z...WITH MVFR CEILINGS...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.                
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS RIDGE APPROACHES AFTER 3Z.              
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  -9   8  -2  26 /  20  10   0  10                                           
INL -14   7   0  28 /  10  10   0  10                                           
BRD -11   9   2  28 /  10  10   0  10                                           
HYR  -8   9  -7  27 /  20  10   0  10                                           
ASX  -1  11  -2  29 /  40  20  10  10                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR                          
     CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-CROW WING-                    
     KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN AITKIN-NORTHERN CASS-NORTHERN                         
     COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN ITASCA-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-                     
     SOUTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-                     
     SOUTHERN ITASCA-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE.                                   
WI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR ASHLAND-             
     IRON.                                                                      
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR BAYFIELD.           
LS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
DAP                                                                             
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
908 PM CST TUE JAN 1 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...MAIN FOCUS OVERNIGHT IS ON LAKE EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH                
SHORE. ZONES/GRIDS UPDATED EARLIER THIS EVENING AND ARE STILL ON                
TRACK...SO NO ZONE UPDATED NEEDED ATTM. WINDS ARE FINALLY                       
SWITCHING TO THE NORTH ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AS TROUGH                   
PASSES. SNOW HAS BEEN SLOW TO START...WITH GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES              
OF ACCUMULATION SO FAR. STILL A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR LAKE                  
EFFECT SNOW SQUALLS...WITH 88D SHOWING SEVERAL INTENSE BANDS                    
DEVELOPING OVER THE APOSTLE ISLANDS AND TOWARD ASHLAND/IRON                     
AND GOGEBIC COUNTIES. BEST WE CAN DETERMINE...WE ARE SEEING TOPS                
AROUND 8-10K FEET. HURLEY WEB CAM NOW SHOWING TOO MUCH YET...BUT                
WE SHOULD START SEEING AN INCREASE SHORTLY. IF WE CAN TRANSITION                
FROM MULTIPLE BAND TO A LARGER CONVERGENT/LENSING BAND OFF THE                  
BAYFIELD PENINSULA...RATES MAY BECOME EVEN GREATER FOR THE GOGEBIC              
RANGE AREA. WILL MAINTAIN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR ASHLAND              
AND IRON. BAYFIELD COUNTY HAS CONTINUED TO SEE LIGHT SNOW DURING                
THE EVENING...PER CONVERSATIONS WITH OUR OBSERVER IN HERBSTER...                
WITH A COUPLE INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW IN HERBSTER...AND LIKELY MOST               
ELSEWHERE IN THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA.                       
OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM SRN                 
MANITOBA OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD BRING SOME MORE CLOUDS ON                     
OCCASION. HAVE ADDED FLURRIES FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT ELSEWHERE               
BASED ON THE ARRIVAL OF THIS SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...A FAIR AMOUNT OF               
CLEAR SKIES IN BETWEEN FOR AN OVERALL PARTLY CLOUDY MOST AREAS.                 
WIND CHILL ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE                
TEENS BELOW ZER IN MUCH OF THE ADVISORY AREA AND WINDS GRADUALLY                
DIMINISHING.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CST TUE JAN 1 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND                  
WIND CHILLS FOR TONIGHT. AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS                     
TROUGH STRETCHED ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN SLOW                
TO DROP SOUTHWARD...RESULTING IN A DELAY OF THE ONSET OF LAKE                   
EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. LATEST RUC FOLLOWS THE TROUGH                
PROGRESSION WELL AND SUGGESTS A BETTER SET UP WITH WIND FOR LES BY              
22-23Z AND ESPECIALLY MORE THIS EVENING. WILL LEAVE HEADLINES AS                
IS...BUT LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS TO DUE SHORTER DURATION OF THE HEAVIER              
LES.                                                                            
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...COLD AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES              
INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...LEAVING THE FA UNDER A 6-7MB                
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WITH COLDER AIRMASS /H85 TEMPS OF -13 TO             
-16C/ IN PLACE...WIND CHILLS DROP INTO THE -20 TO -30 DEGREES                   
FAHRENHEIT RANGE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. WILL POST A                 
WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONSEQUENTLY FOR AREAS THAT WILL BE COLD                    
ENOUGH AND HAVE STRONG ENOUGH WIND SUPPORT FOR DANGEROUS WIND                   
CHILLS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE DLH FA WILL STILL BE COLD AND SEE                  
WIND CHILLS OF -10 TO -25F.                                                     
LES SHOULD END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND                
WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. LARGE UPPER                 
RIDGE /CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS/ WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL            
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY STARTING WEDNESDAY...THUS STARTING A MAJOR               
WARM-UP FOR EARLY JANUARY. GFS SUGGESTS LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIP WITH            
SHORT WAVES ATOP THE RIDGE ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY...AND AGAIN FRIDAY              
NIGHT/SATURDAY. WILL LEAVE POPS OUT AT THIS TIME...BUT FLURRIES/FZDZ            
MAY BE NEEDED AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER              
WARM AIR INVERSION.                                                             
WARM-UP LASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH                   
SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTING UP ALOFT BY THE LATTER HALF. A STRONG LOW                
WILL AFFECT A GOOD PORTION OF THE CENTRAL CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK.                
THE TRACK IS UNCERTAIN ATTM...BUT RAIN LOOKS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE                
NORTHLAND.                                                                      
AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING                   
VFR CONDITIONS AND AN END TO -SN IN MN TAF SITES BY 0Z. VORT MAX                
MOVING INTO NW WISCONSIN WILL BRING OCCASIONAL -SN TO HYR UNTIL                 
0-3Z...WITH MVFR CEILINGS...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.                
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS RIDGE APPROACHES AFTER 3Z.              
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  -9   8  -2  26 /  20  10   0  10                                           
INL -14   7   0  28 /  10  10   0  10                                           
BRD -11   9   2  28 /  10  10   0  10                                           
HYR  -8   9  -7  27 /  20  10   0  10                                           
ASX  -1  11  -2  29 /  40  20  10  10                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR                          
     CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-CROW WING-                    
     KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN AITKIN-NORTHERN CASS-NORTHERN                         
     COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN ITASCA-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-                     
     SOUTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-                     
     SOUTHERN ITASCA-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE.                                   
WI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR ASHLAND-             
     IRON.                                                                      
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR BAYFIELD.           
LS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
DAP                                                                             
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
312 PM CST TUE JAN 1 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND                 
WIND CHILLS FOR TONIGHT. AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS                     
TROUGH STRETCHED ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN SLOW                
TO DROP SOUTHWARD...RESULTING IN A DELAY OF THE ONSET OF LAKE                   
EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. LATEST RUC FOLLOWS THE TROUGH                
PROGRESSION WELL AND SUGGESTS A BETTER SET UP WITH WIND FOR LES BY              
22-23Z AND ESPECIALLY MORE THIS EVENING. WILL LEAVE HEADLINES AS                
IS...BUT LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS TO DUE SHORTER DURATION OF THE HEAVIER              
LES.                                                                            
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...COLD AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES              
INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...LEAVING THE FA UNDER A 6-7MB                
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WITH COLDER AIRMASS /H85 TEMPS OF -13 TO             
-16C/ IN PLACE...WIND CHILLS DROP INTO THE -20 TO -30 DEGREES                   
FAHRENHEIT RANGE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. WILL POST A                 
WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONSEQUENTLY FOR AREAS THAT WILL BE COLD                    
ENOUGH AND HAVE STRONG ENOUGH WIND SUPPORT FOR DANGEROUS WIND                   
CHILLS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE DLH FA WILL STILL BE COLD AND SEE                  
WIND CHILLS OF -10 TO -25F.                                                     
LES SHOULD END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND                
WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. LARGE UPPER                 
RIDGE /CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS/ WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL            
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY STARTING WEDNESDAY...THUS STARTING A MAJOR               
WARM-UP FOR EARLY JANUARY. GFS SUGGESTS LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIP WITH            
SHORT WAVES ATOP THE RIDGE ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY...AND AGAIN FRIDAY              
NIGHT/SATURDAY. WILL LEAVE POPS OUT AT THIS TIME...BUT FLURRIES/FZDZ            
MAY BE NEEDED AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER              
WARM AIR INVERSION.                                                             
WARM-UP LASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH                   
SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTING UP ALOFT BY THE LATTER HALF. A STRONG LOW                
WILL AFFECT A GOOD PORTION OF THE CENTRAL CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK.                
THE TRACK IS UNCERTAIN ATTM...BUT RAIN LOOKS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE                
NORTHLAND.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING                  
VFR CONDITIONS AND AN END TO -SN IN MN TAF SITES BY 0Z. VORT MAX                
MOVING INTO NW WISCONSIN WILL BRING OCCASIONAL -SN TO HYR UNTIL                 
0-3Z...WITH MVFR CEILINGS...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.                
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS RIDGE APPROACHES AFTER 3Z.              
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  -9   8  -2  26 /  20  10   0  10                                           
INL -14   7   0  28 /  10  10   0  10                                           
BRD -11   9   2  28 /  10  10   0  10                                           
HYR  -8   9  -7  27 /  20  10   0  10                                           
ASX  -1  11  -2  29 /  40  20  10  10                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST                    
     WEDNESDAY FOR CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-                
     CROW WING-KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN AITKIN-NORTHERN CASS-                       
     NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN ITASCA-NORTHERN ST.                   
     LOUIS-SOUTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-               
     SOUTHERN ITASCA-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE.                                   
WI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR ASHLAND-             
     IRON.                                                                      
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR BAYFIELD.           
LS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
LILES/GSF/KMD                                                                   
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
320 AM EST WED JAN 2 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFYING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL USHER IN               
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY              
ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE              
THROUGH TONIGHT...WEDNESDAY...AND EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND                 
THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE FINGER LAKES REGION OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.               
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW              
THAT FALLS...AND ALSO BRING BITTER WIND CHILLS TO THE REGION                    
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL                  
BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION...BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND MODERATING              
TEMPERATURES.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...                                         
OLD PRIMARY LOW UP NEAR KRME RAPIDLY GIVING WAY TO DEVELOPING LOW               
PRESSURE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST OF                
THIS LOW IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE CWA...BRINGING A SHIFT IN THE                
WINDS TO NORTHWESTERLY. AS THIS OCCURS...DEEP SYNOPTIC                          
MOISTURE...COINCIDING WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE ONTARIO AND               
THE FINGER LAKES IS SUSTAINING AN AREA OF SHSN OVER THE                         
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH SNOWS TAPERING TO FLURRIES                  
SOUTH AND EAST OF BINGHAMTON. THE REAL ARCTIC AIR REMAINS NORTH OF              
LAKE ONTARIO...AND THE CURRENT LAPS ANALYSIS AND 00Z RAOB DATA                  
SUGGEST CURRENT TEMPS ALOFT ARE ONLY MARGINAL FOR SUPPORTING LAKE               
EFFECT SNOW AS THEY RESIDE AROUND -10C ATTM. MORE SUBSTANTIAL                   
COOLING WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE PRIMARY LOW                   
VANISHES ALLOWING FOR DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW TO BECOME ESTABLISHED                 
AND STRONG CAA TO GET GOING. SO...LAKE EFFECT MAY NOT BE TOO                    
IMPRESSIVE UNTIL WE HEAD TOWARDS MORNING. SNOW MICROPHYSICS ALSO                
POINTS TO THIS...AS THE OMEGA SLOWLY LOWERS GIVEN THE DEPARTING                 
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM...IT WILL FALL WELL BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH                  
ZONE. HAVE LEFT ACCUMS AS THEY ARE...3-5 INCHES OVERNIGHT...BUT                 
MOST OF THIS MAY COME AFTER 9Z.                                                 
HAVE ADDED BLOWING SNOW TO THE GRIDS AND ZONES WITH WINDS EXPECTED              
TO INCREASE TO 15G25KTS WITH THE ONSET OF COLD ADVECTION LATER                  
TONIGHT. WINDS ALOFT DON/T SEEM TO SUPPORT MUCH MORE THAN                       
THIS...AND THE NAM/RUC PROFILES SUGGEST A LOWERING INVERSION                    
TOWARDS MORNING...WHICH MAY NOT ALLOW A FULL REALIZATION OF THE                 
WINDS ALOFT. 25KTS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME BLOWING                   
SNOW...BUT DON/T FEEL THAT WE`LL SEE WIDESPREAD 1/4 MILE VSBYS                  
OVERNIGHT...AND THEREFORE HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY BLSN ADVISORIES                  
THIS EVENING.                                                                   
FINAL TWEAKS WERE TO /1/ ADD BLOWING SNOW AGAIN TOMORROW AS                     
INSTABILITY AGAIN INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE                   
HELPING TO TAP DECENT WINDS ALOFT AND /2/ ADJUST HOURLY TEMPS TO                
SHOW A STEADY TREND IN THE MORNING...WITH TEMPS FALLING IN THE                  
AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOST OF THE REGION/S HIGH TEMPS TO BE SET                     
TONIGHT AT MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPS NOT INCREASING AGAIN UNTIL                     
THURSDAY MORNING. FINALLY...HAVE /3/ ADDED WIND CHILL MENTION TO                
THE ZFP AND HWO GIVEN RELATIVELY CLOSE PROXIMITY TO WIND CHILL                  
CRITERIA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                                                       
UPDATED PRODUCTS ARE ON THE STREET.                                             
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...                         
LES CONTS WITH A MULTIBAND EVENT INTO THE HEART OF THE FCST AREA.               
EXTREME DELTA T/S HELPING THE CAUSE BUT AS IS TYPICAL IN THE NW                 
FLOW EVENTS...A STRONG INV WILL CONT TO CAP THE SNDG. INTSTG                    
FEATURE THOUGH IS THAT AS SHRT WV/S DROP INTO THE TROF...INV                    
ACTUALLY WEAKENS AND RAISES LTR IN THE PD SO THAT EVEN IF THE LES               
FALTERS A BIT EARLY WED...BELIEVE IT WILL STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN                 
LTR WED AND CONT STRONGLY INTO EARLY THU...AND PERHAPS BEYOND.                  
HAVE POSTED AND WILL CONT ADVISORY INTO 12 THU AS I/M GENERALLY                 
NOT XPCTG WARNING CRITERIA ACCUMS IN ANY 12 HR PD. BEST CHANCE TO               
EXCEED THE ADVISORY WILL BE TNGT...AND AGAIN LATE WED OR EARLY THU              
AS A PARTICULARLY STRONG SHRT WV DROPS IN. HAD CONSIDERED GOING                 
WITH SOME KIND OF GENERIC FLAG CONSIDERING THE BLOWING SNOW                     
PROBLEM AND NEAR WIND CHILL CRITERIA TO BE APRCHD THU. HWVR...IMPLIED           
IN A LAKE SNOW EVENT IS WIND...AND WILL BE SURE TO EMPHASIZE SAME               
IN THE STATEMENTS. LTR SHIFT CAN REEVALUATE THE AREAS OUTSIDE THE               
ADVISORY FOR EXPANSION...OR ISSUING SEPARATE EVENT SPECIFIC                     
ADVISORIES.                                                                     
HIPRES BLDS IN LTR THU AND LOOKS TO MAKE FOR A VERY CHILLY NGT                  
INTO FRI MRNG...ESP WITH THE FRESH SNOW CVR. MILDER AIR RETURNS                 
FOR FRI.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                        
HGTS BEGIN TO RISE THRU THE EXTENDED AS SW FLOW KICKS IN AND RIDGE              
BUILDS OVR THE EAST. H8 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB WELL ABV 0C                  
THRU THE WEEK...YIELDING HIGHS APPCHG 50F BY MID-WEEK. 00Z GFS                  
INDICATED H5 HEIGHTS APPCH 576 ON MONDAY WITH 12Z ECMWF ONLY                    
SLIGHTLY LOWER ON HGTS. THUS...EXPECTING MUCH ABV NORMAL TEMPS                  
(ALMOST 20 DEGREES) TO START THE WEEK. GMOS GUIDANCE APPEARS TO                 
BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE BASED ON PATTERN AND HAVE BUMPED TEMPS UP                 
SEVERAL DEGREES TO START OFF THE PD.                                            
RIDGE AXIS WILL KEEP MAJORITY OF SYSTEM/WK WAVES TO THE NORTH AND               
HAVE LOWERED GMOS POPS THRU THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE                 
FCST AS IT TYPICALLY TRENDS TOWARD CLIMO IN THE LATTER PDS. BEST                
CHC OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY AS FRONTAL BNDRY MVS THRU.                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                     
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS BHND DEPARTING LOW WILL KEEP MVFR/IFR                
CONDS OVRNGT AT TYPICAL LES TERMINALS. CIGS WILL BE LOWEST WITH                 
OCNL LIFR CONDS AT KITH AS NW FLOW BRINGS IN 100FT CIGS. OCNL IFR               
EXPECTED AT KRME/KSYR/KBGM WITH CIGS BTWN 300-800FT EXPECTED THRU               
AT LEAST 10Z. PREDOMINANT CLD BASES EXPECTED TO BE ARND 1500FT.                 
CIGS IMPRV AT KELM/KAVP WHERE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL NOT               
HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT EXCEPT FOR OCNL MVFR CIGS. CONDS GRADUALLY               
IMPRV THRU THE DAY BUT DO NOT EXPECT CIGS TO RISE TO VFR UNTIL                  
EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON WHEN DRIER AIR TRIES TO WORK IN. VSBYS ALSO              
TO BE IMPACTED IN -SHSN WITH SYR/RME/BGM/ITH OCNLY DROPPING TO IFR              
THIS MRNG. AS THE DAY GOES ON...LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL GRADUALLY                
BCM MORE SCATTERED WITH LESS OF AN IMPACT ON TERMINALS.                         
WINDS WILL RMN OUT OF THE NW WITH GUSTS FROM 20-25KTS EARLY AS                  
STRONG CDFNT PLOWS THRU THE REGION. WINDS MAY RELAX A LITTLE ARND               
DAYBREAK BUT WILL PICK UP AGAIN AFTER 15Z.                                      
THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOWS EXPECTED TO                      
INCREASE LATE WED NIGHT...GENERALLY AFTER 06Z WITH NNW FLOW ONCE                
AGAIN. THIS WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS BACK TO THE SAME AREAS AS FLOW              
MOVES OVER LK ONTARIO AND THE FINGER LAKES. MVFR/IFR CONDS                      
EXPECTED AGAIN OVRNGT AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THUR AFTN                    
BEFORE SFC RIDGE FINALLY BRINGS AN END TO SNOW. THE NEXT WEAK WAVE              
WILL MV THRU SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH LIGHT MIXED PCPN POSSIBLE               
AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS THRU RMNDR OF OUTLOOK PD.                                   
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
PA...NONE.                                                                      
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR                      
     NYZ015>018-023-025-044.                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...JMA                                                                  
NEAR TERM...JMA                                                                 
SHORT TERM...DGM                                                                
LONG TERM...PVB                                                                 
AVIATION...PVB                                                                  
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT                                          
1244 AM EST WED JAN 2 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN NEW YORK STATE IS REDEVELOPING               
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THE SECONDARY              
LOW WILL INTENSIFY NEAR CAPE COD AND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT             
BEFORE REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. PERIODS            
OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH                          
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE REGION AS              
THE LOW DEPARTS TO OUR EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. ARCTIC AIR REMAINS IN            
PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND                  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...                                         
AS OF 1030 PM EST...THE MAIN PCPN FM THE PARENT AND DVLPG COASTAL HAS           
LIFTED NE OF FA WITH BUFCAN SHOWING DECENT BANDING ACRS ST LWRNC VLY            
ARD MONTREAL. THIS BANDING AND DEFORMATION BAND DVLPMNT SSW ACRS                
NRN NY ARE THE PLAY MAKERS FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENT.                          
ERLR IR IMAGERY SUGGESTING SOME COOLING TOPS AND RDR COMPOSITE                  
COLLABORATES THIS ACTVTY ACRS SRN ADRNDKS HAS NOW STARTED TO ABATE              
SOMEWHAT. LATEST MDL DATA INCLDG RUC AND LCL WRF POINTS THAT THE                
STG BANDING STRUCTURE WL PRIMARILY REMAIN IN CANADA BUT SHIFT                   
PRECARIOUSLY CLOSE TO NRN BDR COMMUNITIES AT TIMES. DEFORMATION                 
BAND STRUCTURE TO SLOWLY OVRNGT BUT AS LLVL WNDS BCM NNW ACRS                   
CHMPL VLY AND NW SLOPES OF NRN GRNS...XPCT LCL ENHANCEMENT WITH                 
LAKE CHAMPLAIN CONVERGENCE.                                                     
SO...AT THIS TIME THE BIG QUESTION REMAINS ON HOW MUCH ADDTNL AND               
WHETHER TO DROP WRNGS OR DOWNGRADE OR A COMBINATION. IN THE                     
END...KEPT WRNGS IN NRN NY ALG BDR DUE TO SOME ADDTNL SNOW BUT                  
MORE DUE TO BLOWING SNOW WITH INCREASE NNW GRADIENT OF 15-20KTS.                
IN NC-NE AND NRN GRN MTNS HV KEPT WSW DUE TO DEFORMATION BAND AND               
UPSLOPING COMPONENTS THAT CUD BRG 2-4 ADDTNL WITH LCLLY MORE AND                
EVENTUAL BLOWING SNOW. ELSEWHERE...DOWNGRADED TO ADV FOR LGT                    
ADDTNL BUT BLOWING TOWARD MRNG.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...                       
AS OF 247 PM EST TUESDAY...SFC LOW WILL BE EXITING ACROSS NOVA                  
SCOTIA AT 12Z WED WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT MORNING SNOW SHOWERS.               
ALTHOUGH MUCH DRIER AIR WILL HELP END THE SNOW SHOWERS AND ALLOW FOR            
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE                  
STRONG COLD-AIR ADVECTION WILL OFFSET ANY DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS            
LEAVING READINGS MAINLY IN THE TEENS...AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS IN               
THE ADIRONDACKS FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. ALL IN ALL...MOST LOCATIONS WILL             
SEE NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURE READINGS THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY. WIND               
CHILL VALUES WILL RANGE FROM ZERO TO -10F...MAKING FOR A BRISK DAY              
/N TO NW WINDS 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN THE MORNING/.                  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SFC RIDGE BUILDS EWD INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES                 
REGION WITH NNWLY GRADIENT FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE FA. VERTICAL              
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR DECREASES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND WITH STEEP                    
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...INVERSION HEIGHTS OF 3.5-4.0 KFT...AND A                
MOSTLY ICE FREE REGION OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN...WE SHOULD GET A NNW-SSE              
ORIENTED LAKE SNOW BAND DEVELOP OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN. THIS BAND WILL             
BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE FROM BTV TO CHARLOTTE             
TO FERRISBURG...WITH PERHAPS 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION VCNTY              
OF SHELBURNE...CHARLOTTE...AND FERRISBURG BY THURSDAY MORNING.                  
ELSEWHERE...LOOKING AT ONE OF THE COLDEST MORNINGS OF THE SEASON                
WITH WIDESPREAD READINGS 0F TO -10F.                                            
THURSDAY...LOOKS FAIR AND COLD WITH HIGH PRESSURE CRESTING OVER THE             
NORTH COUNTRY. NO PCPN EXPECTED...LIGHT WINDS...AND HIGHS IN THE +5             
TO +10F RANGE EXCEPT LOW TEENS IN THE KVSF AREA OF THE CT VALLEY.               
THURSDAY NIGHT...SFC RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE SHIFTING EAST OF THE NORTH            
COUNTRY. SOME MID-UPR CLOUDS AND LIGHT SWLY WINDS MAY LIMIT                     
RADIATIVE COOLING IN NRN NY. MEANWHILE...PBL SHOULD BE STRONGLY                 
DECOUPLED WITH LONGER PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES IN NERN VT. THUS...SOME             
EAST-WEST VARIABILITY IN LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY                   
MORNING. WILL GO -10F TO -20F IN NERN VT...0 TO -5F IN THE CHAMPLAIN            
VALLEY...AND 0 TO -10F ACROSS MOST OF NRN NY.                                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                          
VERY QUIET EXTENDED FORECAST AGAIN TODAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE                  
WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN...WITH BLOCKING PATTERN SET UP ALONG THE              
EAST COAST. GENERALLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL BE IN CONTROL OF                
THE WEATHER. ARCTIC AIR MASS BEGINS TO PUSH OUT OF THE AREA ON                  
FRIDAY MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE BUT GETS STUCK                
THERE. BROAD SOUTH AND/OR SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER              
PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE                  
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. CONTINUED TO STAY CLOSE TO GRIDDED                 
MOS NUMBERS...AND BLENDED IN THE MEX MOS. WITH PRONOUNCED RIDGING               
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...PRIMARY JET AND STORM TRACK SHOULD BE                
DEFLECTED OFF TO THE NW...KEEPING MOST OF THE CWA DRY. HAVE ONLY                
INCLUDED CHANCE IN EXTENDED PERIOD FOR MOST NORTHERN ZONES CURING               
A COUPLE PERIODS...OTHERWISE POPS WILL BE MINIMAL.                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                     
MVFR/IFR CONDS TO PERSIST IN -SN AND BLSN THROUGH THE MID MORNING               
HOURS AS GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY SFC FLOW IS USHERED IN BEHIND ARCTIC               
SFC BNDRY PUSHING ACROSS FA ATTM. EXPECT CONDS TO IMPROVE THROUGH               
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT MOST SITES AS MEAN COLUMNAR MOISTURE                     
PROFILES CONTINUE TO THIN...THOUGH STILL SOME LOCALIZED IFR CONDS IN            
-SN/BLSN ALONG AND JUST EAST OF LK CHAMPLAIN INVOF KBTV. ANY                    
LINGERING FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOWS THEN BASICALLY END INTO THE              
EVENING HOURS AS MOST SITES SCATTER OUT LEAVING PC CONDS INTO THE               
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME LINGERING MVFR CONDS AND SCT FLURRIES STILL               
POSSIBLE JUST EAST OF LK CHAMPLAIN HOWEVER.                                     
06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LOW TO MID LVL MOISTURE CONTS TO                  
THIN OUT WED NGT AS MID LVL TROF AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS E WITH MID LVL              
AND SFC RIDGING MVG INTO FA FOR THU. SFC HI SHIFTS S WITH RETURN                
FLOW AT LLVLS AND WNW FLOW AT MID LVLS BRINGING SOME WEAK ENERGY                
BY FRI FOR PSBLTY OF CHC -SHSN. SFC FLOW CONTS THE SAME WITH MID                
LVL FLOW BCMG WSW DRG WKND FOR GRDL WRMG AND ANTHR CHC OF -SHRA                 
LATE SAT-SUN. BASICALLY...VFR CONDS XPCTD FOR MUCH OF PERIOD WITH               
PSBL LCLZD MVFR IN -SHSN FRI.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VTZ003-              
     004-006>008-016-017.                                                       
     SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VTZ001-002-005-             
     009-010-018-019.                                                           
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ026-              
     027-029>031-087.                                                           
     SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ028-034-035.             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS                                                              
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/SLW                                                         
SHORT TERM...BANACOS/RJS                                                        
LONG TERM...JAN                                                                 
AVIATION...SLW/JMG                                                              
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
1230 PM EST WED JAN 2 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH DURING             
THE AFTERNOON.  FOLLOWING THE TROUGH...STRONG...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE            
OVER THE PLAINS WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION                
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...LINGERING OVER OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.                
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WAS MOVING INTO                
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH LOCAL RADAR IMAGES SHOWING ISOLATED                 
AREAS OF HIGHER REFLECTIVITY TOWARD KDAN AND JUST WEST OF KRZZ.                 
ALTHOUGH THE KGSO 12Z SOUNDING WAS DRY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER                
VALUES ONLY 0.08 INCH...AND NOT MUCH MORE MOIST AT EITHER KRNK OR               
KMHX...THERE WAS DECENT MOISTURE ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE 850MB              
AND 700MB TROUGH AXES MOVING INTO AND ACROSS THE STATE. CLOUD TOPS              
WERE WARMING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE BOTH THE NAM AND THE RUC             
FORECAST OVERALL SUBSIDENCE DURING THE AFTERNOON.  DESPITE                      
THIS...THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE WAS SUFFICIENT EVEN WITH LIMITED           
MOISTURE TO PROVIDE FOR PATCHY LIGHT SNOW REACHING THE GROUND                   
PARTICULARLY AT KDAN...WHERE THE VISIBILITY FELL BRIEFLY TO JUST                
UNDER 2 MILES. THE VISIBILITY HAS SINCE RISEN THERE AS OF 10 AM.                
UPDATED THE GRIDDED AND WORDED FORECASTS TO REINTRODUCE ISOLATED                
SNOW SHOWERS TO AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. 64...WHERE                 
THE MOISTURE ON THE MORE AGGRESSIVE NAM...COMPARED TO THE RUC...                
IS GREATEST DURING THE DAY AT 850MB AND 700MB. ADDED FLURRIES JUST              
A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER WAVE AND                 
THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. KGSO AND AMDAR SOUNDINGS NEAR KRDU WERE                
VERY SIMILAR IN SHOWING WINDS ALOFT OF 25-30KT AND INCREASED                    
SURFACE WINDS IN A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER TO 35 MPH...WHICH                  
COINCIDES WITH SOME OBSERVATIONS SHOWING WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35                 
MPH. FINALLY...GIVEN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH 850MB                          
TEMPERATURES INTO THE NEGATIVE MIDDLE TEENS...AND AN INCREASE IN                
CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER WAVE ESPECIALLY                   
NORTHERN ZONES...HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH...TO 35 TO 40              
SOUTH...APPEAR REASONABLE WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE. WHERE               
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE...THEY WERE SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR THE HIGHS                  
THIS AFTERNOON.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...                               
AS OF 145 AM WED...THE SHARP TROUGH ALOFT EXITS EAST OF THE AREA                
TONIGHT AND CONDITIONS STABILIZE WITH SUBSIDENCE WARMING AND                    
DRYING ALOFT. THE THERMAL TROUGH BOTTOMS OUT OVER THE AREA EARLY                
THU MORNING WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR MINUS 12-14C. THE                     
SURFACE LAYER REMAINS STIRRED WITH GRADIENT NW FLOW                             
OVERNIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL DROP TO AROUND 20                     
THROUGHOUT THE CWA WITH A WIND CHILL NEAR 10 DEGREES TOWARD                     
DAYBREAK THU. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS FOR THU IS CLOSE TO VALUES OF                 
TODAY...WHICH TRANSLATES TO HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S UNDER SUNNY                 
SKIES.                                                                          
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES THIS SERIES COMES THU NIGHT WITH THE                   
SURFACE HIGH CENTERING OVER THE AREA AND MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL                    
COOLING. LOWS OF 15 TO 20 ARE LIKELY. AIRMASS MODERATION SHOULD SET             
IN WITH RIDGING ALOFT ON FRI...850 TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE 0C IN              
WESTERLY FLOW... AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESS EXCEEDING 1305M.  CIRRUS               
MAY BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...BUT OTHERWISE                 
SUNSHINE SHOULD WARM THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER             
40S.  -RFG                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                    
AS OF 130 AM WED...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE                      
CHARACTERIZED BY A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND ANOMALOUS             
STRONG RIDGING ALONG THE EAST COAST.  GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE            
WITH REGARD TO THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WESTERN TROUGH BY                
TUE. THEY ALSO DISAGREE ON THE PATH OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE             
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH GFS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND THE ECMWF ACROSS             
THE CAROLINAS.  BUT DIFFERENCES SHOULD BE LARGELY INCONSEQUENTIAL TO            
SENSIBLE WEATHER.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE TO WELL-ABOVE NORMAL            
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH LITTLE PROSPECT FOR RAINFALL.  THE PATTERN              
TYPE OF LIGHT SE FLOW INTO A RIDGE OVER THE CAROLINA AND A                      
MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS SOME INCREASE IN MORNING FOG                 
POTENTIAL SUN-TUE.                                                              
FRI NIGHT-MON...THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST              
BUT LEAVES A SHARP AXIS EXTENDING WEST ACROSS NC. UPPER LEVELS                  
BECOME MOIST OVER THE WEEKEND AND THIS IS APT TO RESULT IN VARIABLE             
AMOUNTS OF CIRRUS WITH DEFORMATION IN THE FLOW AT JET LEVEL.  HIGH              
CLOUDINESS WILL LIMIT MAX TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL...BUT STILL ABOUT A             
3-5 DEGREE INCREASE IN DIURNAL EXTREMES CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY                
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  LOWER TO MID LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY                  
EXCEPT FOR SOME BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATION IN SE FLOW POSSIBLE BY SUN            
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING FOG.                                     
MON NIGHT-TUE...TEMPERATURE EXTREMES SHOULD BE RANGING ABOUT 15                 
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES CONFLUENT AND THE                 
AIRMASS BEGINS TO DESTABILIZE BY LATE TUE.  HOWEVER...THE UPPER                 
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA WITH              
LITTLE PROSPECT FOR RAINFALL UNTIL PERHAPS LATER IN THE WEEK.  -RFG             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                     
AS OF 1230 PM...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND                
30KT WILL CONTINUE UNTIL JUST BEFORE SUNSET...BUT BOTH THE NAM AND              
GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW A WELL-MIXED ATMOSPHERE IN THE BOUNDARY                 
LAYER THROUGH THE NIGHT WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE FOR A STEADY WIND THAT             
SLOWLY VEERS MORE NORTHERLY DURING THE TAF PERIOD.  WINDS ARE                   
SLIGHTLY LESS THURSDAY...BUT WITH WINDS IN THE FIRST 150MB OR SO                
REMAINING TO 15-25KTS OFF OF THE SURFACE...STRONGER TOWARD THE                  
EAST...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ONCE AGAIN AT THE SURFACE.                  
AFTER THE STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH             
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLEETING MVFR AND A LIGHT FLURRY OR SNOW                      
SHOWER...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR OR CLEAR             
SKY.  MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.                
IF THE GFS VERIFIES...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR OR EVEN             
IFR CEILINGS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOME RETURN                
FLOW AND INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST.  THIS                 
COULD ALSO TAKE PLACE LATE MONDAY.  OTHERWISE...UNDER HIGH                      
PRESSURE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.                                         
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
AS OF 1025 AM...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35             
MPH COUPLED WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT... WILL            
CREATE ADVERSE FIRE CODITIONS THIS AFTERNOON... DESPITE RECENT                  
RAINFALL. THE WINDY AND VERY DRY AIR... CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE                
DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS... WILL QUICKLY REDUCE FINE FUEL                 
MOISTURE TO THE SINGLE DIGITS. IN FACT... THE LATEST AVAILABLE DATA             
FROM YESTERDAY INDICATES THAT 10 HOUR DEAD FUEL MOISTURE WAS BETWEEN            
7 AND 8 PERCENT... AND THESE SHOULD CERTAINLY BE AS LOW OR LIKELY               
LOWER TODAY. PER COORDINATION WITH STATE FORESTRY OFFICIALS ON                  
TUESDAY...A RED FLAG WARNING WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NC                
THROUGH 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
RED FLAG WARNING 9 AM TO 5 PM TODAY FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NC.                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...DJF/RFG                                                              
NEAR TERM...DJF                                                                 
SHORT TERM...RFG                                                                
LONG TERM...RFG                                                                 
AVIATION...DJF                                                                  
FIRE WEATHER...MWS                                                              
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
700 AM EST WED JAN 2 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE              
OVER THE PLAINS WILL DRIVE MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE MID ATLANTIC                
REGION TODAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN DRIFT SLOWLY EAST             
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY...THEN PRODUCE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FROM              
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
AS OF 100 AM WEDNESDAY...THE JET AXIS ALOFT OVERHEAD EARLY THIS                 
MORNING DRIFTS EAST...INDICATING MAINLY SUBSIDENCE IN THE UPPER                 
LEVELS TODAY.  DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AT              
700-500 MB IS VERY FLEETING AS IT MOVES FROM NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE                
MTNS TO THE COAST 12-18Z.  RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NO SATURATION            
OVER THE AREA AT 12Z.  NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW                      
MOISTENING LATER THIS MORNING TO NEAR SATURATION AT 850-650 MB...BUT            
THE LAPSE RATE IS NOT AS STEEP AS PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND REMAINS               
LESS THAN 6.0C/KM IN THE MOIST LAYER EXCEPT SLIGHTLY ABOVE 6.0C/KM              
NEAR THE VA BORDER.  CURRENTLY SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE RUNNING DRIER             
THAN GUIDANCE IN THE TRIAD...AND INDEED THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS              
VERY DRY THROUGHOUT TODAY IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS.  THE FEW SNOW              
SHOWERS THAT MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS            
ARE LIKELY TO SUBLIMATE ON THE WAY DOWN WITH ONLY A FEW FLURRIES AT             
MOST EXPECTED AT THE SURFACE.  SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE GETTING                 
COLDER...BUT JUST GETTING BELOW FREEZING NOW IN THE NW AND ONLY                 
EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW FREEZING FARTHER EAST AROUND              
DAYBREAK.  THIS LIMITS THE POTENTIAL FOR TRACE AMOUNTS OF SNOW                  
CAUSING PROBLEMS THIS MORNING AS SURFACE WARMING TAKES HOLD WITH                
DAYLIGHT. SO IN A NUTSHELL...SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THIS               
MORNING BUT CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE SNOW AND NEGATIVE CONSEQUENCES               
APPEAR SLIM NORTH TO NEGLIGIBLE SOUTH.                                          
TRUE TO PREVIOUS MODEL FORM...1000-850 MB THICKNESS STARTS THE DAY              
AT 1250-1255M AND RISES TO AROUND 1265-1275M.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT               
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 DEGREES TODAY AND LIKELY STAY            
WELL SHORT IN THE MID 30S NW.  GUSTY WNW WINDS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30            
MPH WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL IN THE TEENS NW EARLY AND LOWER TO MID              
20S DURING THE DAY THROUGHOUT THE CWA. -RFG                                     
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...                               
AS OF 145 AM WED...THE SHARP TROUGH ALOFT EXITS EAST OF THE AREA                
TONIGHT AND CONDITIONS STABILIZE WITH SUBSIDENCE WARMING AND                    
DRYING ALOFT. THE THERMAL TROUGH BOTTOMS OUT OVER THE AREA EARLY                
THU MORNING WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR MINUS 12-14C. THE                     
SURFACE LAYER REMAINS STIRRED WITH GRADIENT NW FLOW                             
OVERNIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL DROP TO AROUND 20                     
THROUGHOUT THE CWA WITH A WIND CHILL NEAR 10 DEGREES TOWARD                     
DAYBREAK THU. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS FOR THU IS CLOSE TO VALUES OF                 
TODAY...WHICH TRANSLATES TO HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S UNDER SUNNY                 
SKIES.                                                                          
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES THIS SERIES COMES THU NIGHT WITH THE                   
SURFACE HIGH CENTERING OVER THE AREA AND MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL                    
COOLING. LOWS OF 15 TO 20 ARE LIKELY. AIRMASS MODERATION SHOULD SET             
IN WITH RIDGING ALOFT ON FRI...850 TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE 0C IN              
WESTERLY FLOW... AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESS EXCEEDING 1305M.  CIRRUS               
MAY BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...BUT OTHERWISE                 
SUNSHINE SHOULD WARM THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER             
40S.  -RFG                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                    
AS OF 130 AM WED...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE                      
CHARACTERIZED BY A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND ANOMALOUS             
STRONG RIDGING ALONG THE EAST COAST.  GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE            
WITH REGARD TO THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WESTERN TROUGH BY                
TUE. THEY ALSO DISAGREE ON THE PATH OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE             
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH GFS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND THE ECMWF ACROSS             
THE CAROLINAS.  BUT DIFFERENCES SHOULD BE LARGELY INCONSEQUENTIAL TO            
SENSIBLE WEATHER.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE TO WELL-ABOVE NORMAL            
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH LITTLE PROSPECT FOR RAINFALL.  THE PATTERN              
TYPE OF LIGHT SE FLOW INTO A RIDGE OVER THE CAROLINA AND A                      
MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS SOME INCREASE IN MORNING FOG                 
POTENTIAL SUN-TUE.                                                              
FRI NIGHT-MON...THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST              
BUT LEAVES A SHARP AXIS EXTENDING WEST ACROSS NC. UPPER LEVELS                  
BECOME MOIST OVER THE WEEKEND AND THIS IS APT TO RESULT IN VARIABLE             
AMOUNTS OF CIRRUS WITH DEFORMATION IN THE FLOW AT JET LEVEL.  HIGH              
CLOUDINESS WILL LIMIT MAX TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL...BUT STILL ABOUT A             
3-5 DEGREE INCREASE IN DIURNAL EXTREMES CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY                
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  LOWER TO MID LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY                  
EXCEPT FOR SOME BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATION IN SE FLOW POSSIBLE BY SUN            
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING FOG.                                     
MON NIGHT-TUE...TEMPERATURE EXTREMES SHOULD BE RANGING ABOUT 15                 
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES CONFLUENT AND THE                 
AIRMASS BEGINS TO DESTABILIZE BY LATE TUE.  HOWEVER...THE UPPER                 
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA WITH              
LITTLE PROSPECT FOR RAINFALL UNTIL PERHAPS LATER IN THE WEEK.  -RFG             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                     
AS OF 700 AM WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF                 
PERIOD. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY                   
RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 6                   
THOUSAND FEET THROUGH ABOUT 15Z... OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES SHOULD                 
PREVAIL. THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF A FEW FLURRIES OVER THE                 
INT/GSO AREA DURING THE MORNING.                                                
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA STRONG UPPER LEVEL              
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL BECOME                 
QUITE GUSTY DURING THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED               
WINDS AT 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE             
TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AFTER            
SUNSET WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS...                
THEN DROP TO NORTHWEST AT 12 TO 15 KNOTS.                                       
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY...             
BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE TAF AREA FRIDAY... AND THEN MOVE EAST OF             
THE AREA SATURDAY. RIDGING WILL EXTEND WEST INTO THE AREA LATE                  
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FROM THE OFFSHORE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE               
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.                          
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
NW WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH COUPLED              
WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES NEAR 25 PERCENT HAS CREATED ADVERSE                      
CONDITIONS FOR FIRE CONTROL...DESPITE RECENT RAINFALL.  THE WINDY               
DRY AIR HAS THE POTENTIAL TO QUICKLY REDUCE FINE FUEL MOISTURE TO               
THE SINGLE DIGITS. FOLLOWING COORDINATION WITH STATE FORESTRY                   
OFFICIALS YESTERDAY...A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR 9 AM TO            
5 PM TODAY FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NC.                                               
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
RED FLAG WARNING 9 AM TO 5 PM TODAY FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NC.                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...RFG                                                                  
NEAR TERM...RFG                                                                 
SHORT TERM...RFG                                                                
LONG TERM...RFG                                                                 
AVIATION...RHJ                                                                  
FIRE WEATHER...RFG                                                              
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
113 AM EST WED JAN 2 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS AND DEPARTING LOW              
PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL DRIVE COLD AIR INTO THE AREA            
TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA              
THU AND FRI.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...                                                   
AS OF 100 AM WEDNESDAY...THE JET AXIS ALOFT OVERHEAD EARLY THIS                 
MORNING DRIFTS EAST...INDICATING MAINLY SUBSIDENCE IN THE UPPER                 
LEVELS TODAY.  DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AT              
700-500 MB IS VERY FLEETING AS IT MOVES FROM NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE                
MTNS TO THE COAST 12-18Z.  RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NO SATURATION            
OVER THE AREA AT 12Z.  NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW                      
MOISTENING LATER THIS MORNING TO NEAR SATURATION AT 850-650 MB...BUT            
THE LAPSE RATE IS NOT AS STEEP AS PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND REMAINS               
LESS THAN 6.0C/KM IN THE MOIST LAYER EXCEPT SLIGHTLY ABOVE 6.0C/KM              
NEAR THE VA BORDER.  CURRENTLY SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE RUNNING DRIER             
THAN GUIDANCE IN THE TRIAD...AND INDEED THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS              
VERY DRY THROUGHOUT TODAY IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS.  THE FEW SNOW              
SHOWERS THAT MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS            
ARE LIKELY TO SUBLIMATE ON THE WAY DOWN WITH ONLY A FEW FLURRIES AT             
MOST EXPECTED AT THE SURFACE.  SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE GETTING                 
COLDER...BUT JUST GETTING BELOW FREEZING NOW IN THE NW AND ONLY                 
EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW FREEZING FARTHER EAST AROUND              
DAYBREAK.  THIS LIMITS THE POTENTIAL FOR TRACE AMOUNTS OF SNOW                  
CAUSING PROBLEMS THIS MORNING AS SURFACE WARMING TAKES HOLD WITH                
DAYLIGHT. SO IN A NUTSHELL...SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THIS               
MORNING BUT CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE SNOW AND NEGATIVE CONSEQUENCES               
APPEAR SLIM NORTH TO NEGLIGIBLE SOUTH.                                          
TRUE TO PREVIOUS MODEL FORM...1000-850 MB THICKNESS STARTS THE DAY              
AT 1250-1255M AND RISES TO AROUND 1265-1275M.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT               
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 DEGREES TODAY AND LIKELY STAY            
WELL SHORT IN THE MID 30S NW.  GUSTY WNW WINDS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30            
MPH WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL IN THE TEENS NW EARLY AND LOWER TO MID              
20S DURING THE DAY THROUGHOUT THE CWA. -RFG                                     
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...                                   
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...VERY COLD AIR WILL SETTLE OVER FORECAST AREA             
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO REGION BEHIND EXITING UPPER LEVEL                  
SYSTEM. SKIES WILL CLEAR BY SUNSET WED NIGHT WHILE WINDS WILL                   
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. DO NOT EXPECT AIR MASS TO DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT                 
WHICH WILL ALLOW AIR NEAR SURFACE TO REMAIN MIXED. THIS SHOULD                  
RESULT IN MIN TEMPS NEAR 20 DEGREES WITH WIND CHILL VALUES LATE WED             
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES.                      
850 THERMAL TROUGH OVER REGION THU WITH 850 TEMPS MINUS 12 TO MINUS             
14. WHILE NOT AS BLUSTERY AS WED...STOUT NORTH WIND THU AND                     
AFTERNOON TEMPS ONLY IN THE 35-40 DEGREE RANGE WILL MAKE IT A VERY              
CHILLY DAY.                                                                     
SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE AREA, SETTING UP FOR IDEAL COOLING               
CONDITIONS. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FRI MORNING 15-20 DEGREES WITH                 
THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCALES (LOUISBURG, HENDERSON, RURAL HALL)                  
HOVERING BETWEEN 10-13 DEGREES.                                                 
AIR MASS WILL BEGIN GRADUAL MODERATION FRI AS L/W TROUGH LIFTS NE.              
850MB TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SW. TEMPS            
SHOULD REBOUND 25-30 DEGREES FROM MORNING LOWS. -WSS                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                        
AS OF 130 AM WED...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE                      
CHARACTERIZED BY A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND ANOMALOUS             
STRONG RIDGING ALONG THE EAST COAST.  GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE            
WITH REGARD TO THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WESTERN TROUGH BY                
TUE. THEY ALSO DISAGREE ON THE PATH OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE             
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH GFS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND THE ECMWF ACROSS             
THE CAROLINAS.  BUT DIFFERENCES SHOULD BE LARGELY INCONSEQUENTIAL TO            
SENSIBLE WEATHER.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE TO WELL-ABOVE NORMAL            
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH LITTLE PROSPECT FOR RAINFALL.  THE PATTERN              
TYPE OF LIGHT SE FLOW INTO A RIDGE OVER THE CAROLINA AND A                      
MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS SOME INCREASE IN MORNING FOG                 
POTENTIAL SUN-TUE.                                                              
FRI NIGHT-MON...THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST              
BUT LEAVES A SHARP AXIS EXTENDING WEST ACROSS NC. UPPER LEVELS                  
BECOME MOIST OVER THE WEEKEND AND THIS IS APT TO RESULT IN VARIABLE             
AMOUNTS OF CIRRUS WITH DEFORMATION IN THE FLOW AT JET LEVEL.  HIGH              
CLOUDINESS WILL LIMIT MAX TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL...BUT STILL ABOUT A             
3-5 DEGREE INCREASE IN DIURNAL EXTREMES CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY                
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  LOWER TO MID LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY                  
EXCEPT FOR SOME BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATION IN SE FLOW POSSIBLE BY SUN            
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING FOG.                                     
MON NIGHT-TUE...TEMPERATURE EXTREMES SHOULD BE RANGING ABOUT 15                 
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES CONFLUENT AND THE                 
AIRMASS BEGINS TO DESTABILIZE BY LATE TUE.  HOWEVER...THE UPPER                 
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA WITH              
LITTLE PROSPECT FOR RAINFALL UNTIL PERHAPS LATER IN THE WEEK.  -RFG             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                     
AS OF 700 PM TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED                    
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL CROSS THE             
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT                 
BKN/OVC STRATUS AT 5 TO 8 THOUSAND FEET DEVELOPING BY SUNRISE IN                
THE NW PIEDMONT...WITH THE RDU/FAY AND RWI TAF SITES SHORTLY                    
THEREAFTER. A FEW CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN                   
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE...BETWEEN                   
ROUGHLY 12 AND 19Z FROM WEST TO EAST. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS                
FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED IFR/MVFR VISIBILITIES                     
DURING THE 12 TO 19Z TIME FRAME. CEILINGS IN ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY                
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR...IN THE 3 TO 4 THOUSAND FOOT RANGE.                 
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND                 
THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.                                
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH STRONG COLD AIR                      
ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. WEST WINDS DURING THE                      
OVERNIGHT HOURS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 10 TO 14                              
KNOTS...BECOMING NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS                     
AROUND SUNRISE...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS FROM MID TO LATE                
MORNING UNTIL SUNSET. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH                    
GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER               
SUNSET WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THESE WINDS ARE BASED ON FORECAST                       
SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOW 25 TO 35 KNOT LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW IN A                
MIXED LAYER THAT EXTENDS UP TO 850 MILLIBARS.                                   
STRONG (1040-1045 MB) HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE CAROLINAS ON              
THURSDAY...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND                  
SATURDAY...MOVING OFFSHORE WITH RIDGING EXTENDING WEST INTO THE                 
AREA ON SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT                
THROUGH SUNDAY. -VINCENT                                                        
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...RFG                                                                  
NEAR TERM...RFG                                                                 
SHORT TERM...WSS                                                                
LONG TERM...RFG                                                                 
AVIATION...VINCENT                                                              
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
1030 AM CST WED JAN 2 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE               
WESTERN DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH AND             
INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE WESTERN ZONES LATE THIS                         
AFTERNOON...LESS ELSEWHERE.                                                     
FOG LOOP SHOWS A PATCH OF CLOUDS ROUGHLY BETWEEN GFK AND FAR WITH               
LITTLE MOVEMENT. BAND OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WERE SPILLING OVER THE             
UPPER RIDGE AND INTO MUCH OF THE WESTERN ZONES.                                 
TAMDAR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST GFS...RUC AND NAM ARE A BIT TOO WARM AT 925            
HPA AND 850 HPA. RUC WAS THE CLOSEST TO OBSERVED. RUC CROSS SECTION             
INDICATED SOME DRYING IN THE 850 TO 700 HPA LAYER.                              
TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE A DIFFICULT TIE RISING TODAY WITH MID AND HIGH            
LEVEL CLOUDS. MAY HAVE TO REDUCE TEMPS.                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 230 AM CST WED JAN 2 2008/                       
FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS MAINLY TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN                      
REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH PERIOD ALTHOUGH BOTH GFS AND NAM                   
INITIALIZED TO WARM THROUGH COLUMN. WILL USE BLEND FOR FORECAST.                
WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH AFFECTING FA EARLY THIS            
MORNING. RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF MAINLY VFR CIGS AND FLURRIES                 
PROVIDING BRIEF RELIEF IN TEMPERATURE DROP HOWEVER EXPECT CLOUDS TO             
EXIT FA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS DAYBREAK WHICH SHOULD STILL               
ALLOW FOR DECENT TEMPERATURE DROP AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS IN.              
WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR SOME EARLY AM FLURRIES/CLOUDS. OTHERWISE                
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS QUICKLY EAST DURING DAY WITH INCREASING WARM                  
ADVECTION AND MIXING...MAINLY DURING MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY                   
EVENING. WARMEST TEMPERATURES TODAY LIKELY WILL BE WESTERN FA FIRST             
TO SEE BEST MIXING AND WARM ADVECTION. REMAINDER WILL LIKELY SEE                
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARM LIKELY INTO THE EVENING SO MAXIMUM                     
TEMPERATURES MAY GET TRICKY. WILL CONTINUE TO TREND COOLEST MAXIMUM             
VALUES THROUGH VALLEY.                                                          
MID LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS AS IT SHIFTS EAST OVER FA TONIGHT SETTING              
FAIRLY QUICK ZONAL FLOW. GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP THIS EVENING AND                  
CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS LIKELY HOLDING IN WINDY RANGE. LITTLE            
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL SHOULD LIMIT ANY MOVING SNOW TO SOME MINOR                  
GROUND DRIFTING. WITH MIXING AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION                       
TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO HOLD FAIRLY STEADY WITH ONLY A MINOR DROP AT             
WORST DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER.                                       
JUST HOW WARM AREA GETS THE REMAINDER OF WORK WEEK WILL BE BIG                  
CHALLENGE. 850MB TEMPERATURES SOAR BY FRIDAY AND WILL ACT TO                    
STRENGTHEN LOW LEVEL INVERSION. ALSO LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF MID/UPPER            
LEVEL CLOUDS WHICH WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURE DROP DURING NIGHT HOWEVER             
MAY LIMIT ANY HELP SOLAR PROVIDES DURING DAY. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE                
PRETTY CLOSE THURSDAY HOWEVER DIFFERS BY NEARLY 10 DEGREES BY                   
FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CONSERVATIVE...CLOSER              
TO COOLER MAV NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. REASONING BEING WARMEST ELEVATED              
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY MAKING FOR SHARP INVERSION AND SURFACE                   
FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE SOUTH VS MORE FAVORABLE WARMING SW FLOW.                
MILD PATTERN CONTINUES INTO WEEKEND WITH THERMAL RIDGE AXIS OVER FA             
SATURDAY. WILL CAUTIOUSLY NUDGE TEMPERATURES UPWARD HOLDING COOLEST             
READING WITHIN VALLEY. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT CROSSES FA                
SUNDAY SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS.                                               
SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE BEST POTENTIAL FOR PCPN AND WILL              
NEED WATCHING. AT THIS POINT WILL KEEP CURRENT POPS GOING.                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING             
MOST OF THE AREA IS IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH A PATCH OF LOW STRATUS               
LYING ACROSS THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY JUST SOUTHEAST            
OF GFK TO FAR. THIS BAND IS PRODUCING IFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS UNDER            
500FT IN FAR. WITH WEAK MIXING AND A MID LEVEL DECK MOVING ACROSS ND            
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON.                             
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HOPPES/JK                                                                       
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND                                            
330 AM CST WED JAN 2 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...                                     
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SOUTHWESTERN                    
MANITOBA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION VARYING FROM ZERO TO 10                
BELOW ZERO IN CLEAR AREAS TO 5 TO 10 ABOVE UNDER CLOUD COVER. THIS              
DOME OF COLD ARCTIC AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE                
REGION TODAY. WINDS LIGHT ACROSS THE STATE NOW...BUT WINDS ARE                  
EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY OUT OF THE SOUTH...IN RESPONSE              
TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. AT                
UPPER LEVELS A STRONG ELONGATED LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL            
MOVE EAST INTO THE PLAINS. THE SURFACE LOW IN THE LEE OF THE                    
CANADIAN ROCKIES MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT               
AND THURSDAY...BUT BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REDEVELOPS IN THE LEE             
OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES BETWEEN A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE WEST            
COAST AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL               
KEEP WARM ADVECTION AND SOUTH WINDS OVER THE DAKOTAS. EACH DAY OF               
THE SHORT TERM WILL SEE HIGHER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. TODAY`S HIGHS              
FROM 10 ABOVE IN MY EASTERN COUNTIES TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE                    
SOUTHWEST...AND BY FRIDAY HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 30S EAST TO              
MID 40S WEST. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.                                        
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...                                  
EARLY CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. SOUTH TO                      
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH CYCLOGENESIS IN CENTRAL                  
ALBERTA WILL MAINTAIN +4 TO +6 850MB TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA.               
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN             
CONUS AND NOSE OF UPPER LEVEL JET WILL OVERSPREAD WESTERN AND                   
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR MID TO HIGH             
LEVEL CLOUD SHIELDS...REDUCING TOTAL INSOLATION. MODEL SOUNDINGS                
ALSO INDICATE WEAK MIXING DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...FURTHER                  
REDUCING HEATING POTENTIAL. THEREFORE LEFT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S               
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COMPARED TO THE 50S SEEN THIS DECEMBER AND                 
TRENDED COOLER OVER WHAT WILL REMAIN OF THE SNOW PACKS DURING THIS              
MILD SPELL. WEAK IMPULSES WILL TRANSIT THE CWA ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND            
INTO SUNDAY PRODUCING AN AREA OF RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW PER                 
THERMAL PROFILES. BELIEVE GFS IS OVERDONE WITH QPF AND REDUCED POPS             
SLIGHTLY AS MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THESE IMPULSES AS HAS                 
BEEN THE TREND THIS SEASON. LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS TIED             
WITH ISENTROPIC AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE                   
BEGINNING STAGES OF LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL PRODUCE A SNOW BAND ACROSS            
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. POPS                 
ADDED TO REFLECT THIS PRECIP AREA. GFS IS MUCH FASTER WITH                      
DEVELOPMENT AND PROPAGATION OF THE MID WEEK WINTER STORM AND                    
RESULTING DEFORMATION SNOW BAND ACROSS THE CWA. WILL LEAVE TO DAY               
SHIFT TO ADJUST TUE AND WED POPS. HOWEVER...BELIEVE THE GFS WILL                
SLOW DOWN ITS PROGRESSION OF THE LOW CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS            
HAS BEEN THE TREND THIS WINTER.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
A BAND OF 600 TO 1500 FOOT CEILINGS LAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF             
THE STATE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE RUC13 MODEL INDICATES THAT THIS               
BAND WILL TRANSLATE EAST AND MIX OUT BY 18Z.                                    
&&                                                                              
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE                                                                            
$$                                                                              
JV/PA/RL                                                                        
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV                                          
1246 AM EST WED JAN 2 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HEAVIER IN THE              
MOUNTAINS. WARMER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND MELTING THE PENDING SNOWFALL             
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...                                         
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FCST AREA...HWVR INTENSITY HAS                 
SLACKENED OUTSIDE THE MTNS.  WATER VAPOR LOOP ILLUSTRATES A WELL                
DEFINED S/W MOVING THRU SRN IND AND NRN KY ATT AND WILL CROSS SWRN              
VA AND NERN TN OVRNGT.  IR PICKS UP ON THIS FEATURE AS WELL WITH AN             
AREA OF ENHANCED / COOLER CLOUD TOPS.                                           
EXPECT SHSN TO FILL BACK IN AFT 6Z WITH BRIEF PDS OF HVY SN AS TROP             
LOWER TO H5 JUST TO OUR S.  NCEP MDLS PEG H5-H3 QVEC CONV COUPLED               
WITH STEEP H7-H5 LAPSE RATES ACROSS WV THAT COULD YIELD TO A QUICK              
INCH OF ACCUM.  NAM/GFS/RUC ALL SUPPORT AN AREA OF DEFORMATION BTWN             
H7-H6 AND PVU 15 PRES ADV CROSSING AFT MDNGT.  SHSN WILL BE AIDED BY            
LAKE PLUMES OF MI GIVEN LLVL TRAJECTORY.  TIGHT PRES GRADIENT KEEPS             
BLUSTERY CONDS GOING WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND                  
TEENS.  AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.                 
LOWERED ACCUM A LITTLE IN THE TRI STATE INTO SRN WV AS LESS THAN A              
HALF INCH AS FALLEN AND DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN AN INCH OVERNIGHT.              
ELSEWHERE...ACCUM ARE ON TRACK WITH REPORTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ALREADY            
IN PARTS OF THE NRN MTNS.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...                        
LIFT FROM VORT MAX MOVES OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES TO BEGIN WEDNESDAY.             
WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THIS FEATURE. WARM AIR ADVECTION BEHIND                  
VORTICITY LOBE INDUCES A LOW LEVEL INVERSION THAT SHOULD CAP OUT                
SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE VORTICITY LOBE AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS FOR A            
TIME. ATMOSPHERE GRADUALLY DESTABILIZES AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS            
COLDER AIR MOVES BACK IN. WILL INCREASE POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND            
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACCORDINGLY. LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT DRY AIR BEGINS TO             
BATTLE THE UPSLOPE. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE UPSLOPE CLOSER TO THE                  
MOUNTAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION SETS IN ON THURSDAY...BRINGING AN END             
TO THE PRECIPITATION.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                  
COLD ADVECTION JUST SHUTTING OFF AT START OF PERIOD WITH LOW LEVEL              
FLOW STILL NW IN THE MOUNTAINS.  THINK THERE WILL STILL BE SOME                 
CLOUD THERE AT THIS TIME AND...AS COLD AS THE AIR MASS IS...THE LAST            
FLAKES OF SNOW WILL NOT BE GONE UNTIL THE CLOUDS ARE JUST ABOUT                 
GONE.  THEREFORE EXTENDED FLURRIES INTO THU EVENING.                            
OTHERWISE SURFACE HIGH SAILS ACROSS AND S OF THE AREA THU NT                    
ULTIMATELY ALLOWING CLEAR SKY EVERYWHERE.  TOOK TEMPERATURES DOWN               
TOWARD THE NEW LOWER GUIDANCE WITH RADIATIVE COOLING SETUP.                     
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFF               
THE SE COAST WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH SETS UP IN THE W.            
WEAK SHORT WAVES COMING OUT OF THIS LONG WAVE IN THE FAST FLOW OFF              
THE PACIFIC BRING PERIODIC INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OR PRECIPITATION.             
THE OVERRIDING THEME THOUGH SHOULD BE MILD AND FOR THE MOST PART                
DRY...UNTIL A STRONGER SHORT WAVE FINALLY BREAKS THROUGH THE E COAST            
RIDGE.  THIS IS PROGGED TO OCCUR NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.                    
USED MOSGUIDE FOR THE MOST PART...ALTHOUGH LEANED MORE TOWARD HPC               
FOR POPS DAYS 6-7.  USED MOSTLY A BLEND OF THE ONGOING PACKAGE AND              
THE NEW MOSGUIDE FOR MOST HIGHS AND LOWS DURING DAYS3-7.                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                     
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT BRINGING MOST TAF              
LOCATIONS TO IFR VIS IN AND MVFR CEILINGS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.              
AFTER 12Z...EXPECT LOWLAND TAF SITES TO GO TO MVFR VIS IN MORE                  
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...WHILE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES CONTROL                 
AND KEEPS UPSLOPE SNOW GOING AT EKN AND BKW. WILL LEAVE THEM IN                 
IFR VIS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IMPROVEMENTS EXPECTED AFTER                
06Z THURSDAY.                                                                   
AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 06Z THURSDAY/ UPSLOPE SNOW ENDS THURSDAY               
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. VFR RETURNING DURING                
THE DAY...AND CANNOT DISCOUNT FG POSSIBILITIES WITH SNOW                        
MELT/MOIST GROUND AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH CALM WINDS                       
OVERNIGHT.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WV...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR                 
     WVZ032>040.                                                                
     SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ009>011-                 
     015>020-027>031.                                                           
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.               
OH...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-             
     076.                                                                       
KY...NONE.                                                                      
VA...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR                 
     VAZ003-004.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...TRM/MDP/RPY                                                          
NEAR TERM...29/MDP                                                              
SHORT TERM...RPY                                                                
LONG TERM...TRM                                                                 
AVIATION...26                                                                   
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV                                          
1247 AM EST TUE JAN 1 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A COLD FRONT WHIPS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN               
NEW YEARS DAY WITH WIND BLOWN SNOW SHOWERS OF VARYING INTENSITY THRU            
THURSDAY MORNING. MODERATING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND THIS WEEKEND.              
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...                                         
COLD FRONT CONTS TO MOVE THRU CNTRL PORTIONS OF IND AND KY ATT.  SFC            
LOW MOVES NE THROUGH THE LWR GRTLKS TNGT WITH PCPN MOSTLY CONFINED              
TO NRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.  KLVX ILLUSTRATES ECHOES INTENSIFYING IN            
THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE BAROCLINIC ACR WRN KY.  18Z NAM AND LCL            
MESO MDLS SHOW TRACE AT BEST FM I-64 S WHEN BOUNDARY PASSES...HWVR              
LATEST RUC13 CATCHES ON TO DEVELOPING QPF OVER KY AND MARCHES IT                
THRU I-64 S OVRNGT.  OBS SUPPORT A TRACE TO A HUNDREDTH...SO WILL               
KEEP POPS IN THE CHC RANGE...BUT INC THEM TO CAT ALL ACR THE N.                 
SRLY WINDS KEEP TEMPS AOA FREEZING TNGT MAKING PTYPE ALL RAIN AS                
INDICATED BY 9Z SREF PLUMES AT VARIOUS LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT FCST                
AREA.  ANY SN ACCUM BY THE FIRST DAWN OF 2008 SHALL BE ABV 3000 FT              
WHERE AN INCH IS PSBL.                                                          
INCREASED WIND AND WIND GUST GRIDS AFT LOOKING AT MAX MIXING                    
POTENTIAL OFF BUFR SNDGS.  STRONG ISALLOBARIC FLOW COULD PUSH GUST              
TO 35KTS WITH ANY RW ALONG THE FRONT.  WINDS DROP ONLY A LTL NEW                
YEARS DAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AS CYCLONE COILS UP.               
ANY THUNDER OR LIGHTNING SHALL STAY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF LOW WHERE             
IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS ARE LOCATED.                                                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                      
SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF COLD AIR...BUT EFFECT ON THE                
FORECAST IS THE SAME. COLD AIR MOVES IN TUESDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS               
DEVELOPING. MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR MASS THEN MOVES IN TUESDAY NIGHT.            
STRONG VORT LOBE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION SHOULD HELP                   
ENHANCE THE UPSLOPE SNOWFALL. WILL EXPAND THE WINTER STORM WATCH                
DOWN THROUGH RALEIGH COUNTY DUE TO THIS ENHANCEMENT.                            
CONCERNED THAT UPSLOPE EVENT WILL BE HAMPERED A BIT ON WEDNESDAY BY             
SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL INVERSION.                                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                         
STRONG DEEP LAYER NW UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES GRADUALLY DIMINISHING               
WED NT INTO THU. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN WED NT AS THE FLOW               
AND ASSOCIATED COLD ADVECTION WEAKEN.                                           
LOWERED HIGHS THU EVEN FURTHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE                
INVERSION TRAPPING LOW LEVEL COLD AIR.  LOW LEVEL MODEL TEMPERATURES            
ARE LOWEST AT H925.                                                             
SW FLOW DOES ENSUE THU AND STRENGTHENS FRI THRU SUN AS STRONG HIGH              
MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES E ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.                 
CHANCE POPS W OF OH RIVER AND ACROSS NORTHERN WV SAT AFTERNOON AND              
EVENING...SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE...AS WEAK SHORT WAVE LIFTS THROUGH            
IN SW FLOW ALOFT.                                                               
LONG RANGE MODELS TEND TO KEEP THE RIDGE JUST OFF THE EAST                      
COAST...AND PREVENTING SYSTEMS FROM AFFECTING THE AREA MUCH.                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
COLD FRONT IS NOW WORKING ITS WAY INTO HTS...AND WILL BE QUICK TO               
PLOW THROUGH THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS. FROPA                       
GENERATING WIND GUSTS OF 35KTS...AND INCLUDED THIS IN TEMPO                     
GROUPS. WINDS WILL GUST CONTINUOUSLY TO 25-30KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST           
PERIOD AT ALL SITES. SNOW WILL SET UP BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE                   
DAWN HOURS...AND WILL EVENTUALLY DROP VISIBILITIES TO IFR THROUGH               
THE COURSE OF TUESDAY. SOME BLOWING SNOW COULD BE EXPERIENCED AT                
EKN AND BKW. CEILINGS WILL DROP DOWN TO MVFR AS WELL. DO NOT                    
EXPECT MUCH IMPROVEMENT BY 06Z WEDNESDAY.                                       
AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 06Z WEDNESDAY/ LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT                  
TIMES IN SNOW SHOWERS OF VARYING INTENSITY THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                
&&                                                                              
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM NOON EST TODAY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY              
     NIGHT FOR WVZ035>038-046-047.                                              
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...KTB                                                                  
NEAR TERM...29                                                                  
SHORT TERM...RPY                                                                
LONG TERM...DB                                                                  
AVIATION...26                                                                   
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
715 PM MST WED JAN 2 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...WINDY CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS EVE ACRS THE SRN              
HALF OF ZONES. BASED ON 00Z NAM/RUC DATA...SFC GRADIENT CHANGES                 
LITTLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS SO HAVE UPPED THE WINDS IN THE               
GRIDS/ZONES. GRADIENT DOES RELAX SOMEWHAT TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS SFC               
TROF WORKS INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. HAVE ALSO UPPED SKY COVER A BIT                
ACRS OUR NRN ZONES WILL CIRRUS SPILLING THRU THE DIRTY RIDGE. LITTLE            
CHANGE TO TEMPS.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH                 
WINDY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.                    
&&                                                                              
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
WY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JOHNSON                                                                         
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
338 AM EST THU JAN 3 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...STRONG AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEGUN TO                 
SLIDE EASTWARD AND IS CENTERED NEAR THE WESTERN PORTION OF                      
TENNESSEE. DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS IS STILL PERSISTING OVER THE                      
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. MAIN JET AXIS NOW ON THE DOWNSTREAM                 
SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST RATHER THAN                   
DIGGING INTO THE TROUGH...INDICATING DE-AMPLIFICATION OF STRONG                 
PATTERN IS BEGINNING.                                                           
COLDEST NIGHT YET AS DRIEST AIRMASS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH                 
NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS DROPPED MOST SITES INTO THE UPPER               
20S AND LOWER 30S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN               
HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME WITH THE CURRENT PATTERN AND FORECAST                   
TEMPERATURES...AND HAVE GENERALLY BEEN TOO COOL. THE PROBLEM                    
APPEARS TO BE FORECAST WINDS...AND GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY              
UNDERESTIMATING THE WINDS OVERNIGHT AND THE AMOUNT OF MIXING THAT               
IS TAKING PLACE. SMALLER SCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM12 AND RUC13               
HAVE BEEN DOING WELL IN PICKING UP THE PINCHED                                  
GRADIENT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. THESE MODELS SHOW A SLIGHT               
INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND CURRENT                         
OBSERVATIONS SEEM TO BE ECHOING THIS TREND. THIS TREND ALSO SEEMS               
REASONABLE...GIVING COASTAL FLOW SLOWLY VEERING TO THE                          
NORTHEAST AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT...BRINGING IN                  
WARMER MARITIME AIRMASS...WHICH COMPARED TO COLD CONTINENTAL                    
AIRMASS SHOULD PROVIDE VERY LOCALIZED DENSITY DIFFERENCES THAT                  
WOULD EVER SO SLIGHTLY INCREASE THE WINDS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE                 
COAST. AS A RESULT...ALTHOUGH IT WONT GO INTO THE OFFICIAL                      
FORECAST...HAVE BUMPED UP THE MIN TEMPERATURES FOR THIS MORNING TO              
SHOW A BETTER TREND IN TEMPERATURES...AND DO NOT BELIEVE THAT MIN               
TEMPERATURE RECORDS WILL BE BROKEN THIS MORNING. WIND CHILLS WILL               
STILL MAKE TEMPERATURES FEEL AS THOUGH THEY ARE IN THE TEENS AND                
LOWER 20S THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.                                            
STRATO-CU DECK HAS BEEN DRIFTING CLOSER TO OUR SOUTHERN MOST                    
COASTAL COUNTIES. RADAR HAS INDICATED LIGHT RETURNS...ALTHOUGH                  
THESE MAY NOT BE REACHING THE GROUND. HAVE BUMPED UP CLOUD WORDING              
A BIT ALONG THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST TODAY TO REFLECT THIS.                  
STILL FEEL THAT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COLD 850 MB                  
TEMPS COULD PRODUCE VERY ISOLATED FLURRIES...MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN               
ST JOHNS AND FLAGLER COUNTIES...ALTHOUGH BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE              
JUST SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL BE VERY MINIMAL                     
IMPACTS FROM THIS.                                                              
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AS                
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS HIGH               
WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MAINLY                    
ZONAL. EXPECT BIGGEST IMPACTS ALONG OUR FLORIDA COASTAL COUNTIES                
WITH SLOW WARMING TREND AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN RELATIVE                         
HUMIDITIES. BRIEF LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS              
AFTERNOON ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN THESE AREAS...ALTHOUGH                   
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME.                                     
BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...DRY AIR ENHANCING                        
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL STILL KEEP TEMPERATURES OVER INLAND                    
GEORGIA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY BELOW FREEZING...WHILE SOUTHERN                 
MOST COASTAL COUNTIES WILL FINALLY REBOUND. FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE              
ALONG NORTHEAST FLORIDA COASTAL COUNTIES WHERE MOISTURE WILL                    
INCREASE WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN COLD OVERNIGHT.                   
LEFT HARD FREEZE WATCH AND FREEZE WATCH AS WATCHES...AS GUIDANCE                
HAS BEEN MUCH TOO COOL LATELY...AND WILL LET DAY SHIFT REEVALUATE               
AS NEW GUIDANCE AND DATA COMES IN. OTHERWISE...CURRENT HAZARDS                  
APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK.                                                          
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE WARMING TREND AS FLOW SHIFTS TO                  
NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND                  
SHIFT OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE                
AND MINIMAL MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME SPRINKLES OVER               
THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SATURDAY WILL BE THE                
FINAL DAY OF BELOW NORMAL MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AS THE AREA OF HIGH              
PRESSURE WEAKENS FURTHER AND MOVES OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS.               
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO              
SHIFT EASTWARD AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE              
ROCKY MOUNTAINS. FLOW BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND                    
APPROACHING LOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND                  
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR                
LOWS AND HIGHS. BASICALLY A DRY FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE NEXT                 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA BY LATE THURSDAY                
OR EARLY FRIDAY.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...WIND SHEAR WILL BE MAIN CONCERN AND WILL KEEP IN TAFS               
UNTIL 14Z. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE MORE NLY TODAY AND NOT QUITE AS                  
STRONG AS YESTERDAY. MARITIME CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT ONSHORE              
TONIGHT AND WILL INTRODUCE SCT DECK AT 2500 FT AFTER 03Z.                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...GALE FORCE GUSTS CONTINUE JUST NORTH OF AREA AND LIKELY               
EXTEND INTO THE GA OFFSHORE WATERS. SINCE ST. AUGUSTINE BUOY IS                 
GUSTING TO NEAR GALE FORCE...HAVE EXTENDED THE GALE WRNG UNTIL                  
15Z. SCA CONDITIONS WILL PICK UP WHERE GALES LEAVE OFF AND                      
CONTINUE UNTIL FRI AFTN WHEN PRES GRADIENT RELAXES. ONSHORE FLOW                
SETS UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.                     
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS THIS                 
AFTN ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND INLAND SE GA. MOISTURE WILL                 
INCREASE IN THE FAR SE PORTION (SE OF SGJ TO PALATKA TO WEIRSDALE)              
WITH SLIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND MIN RH MAY NOT FALL BELOW CRITICAL                 
THRESHOLDS. REMAINDER OF AREA WILL IS UNDER A RED FLAG WRNG                     
EXTREMELY LOW RH`S.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
AMG  46  23  53  32 /   0   0   0   0                                           
SSI  44  30  52  40 /  10   0   0  10                                           
JAX  47  27  56  38 /   0   0   0   0                                           
SGJ  48  37  57  47 /  10  10  20   0                                           
GNV  48  26  59  40 /   0   0   0   0                                           
OCF  49  31  60  44 /   0   0   0   0                                           
&&                                                                              
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ALACHUA-              
     BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-                      
     HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.                     
     HARD FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR             
     ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-COLUMBIA-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-               
     UNION.                                                                     
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR DUVAL-                
     FLAGLER-NASSAU-ST JOHNS.                                                   
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS                  
     EVENING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-                    
     GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-SUWANNEE-UNION.                    
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR CLAY-            
     DUVAL-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM.                                                
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR CLAY-            
     PUTNAM.                                                                    
GA...HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR APPLING-              
     ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-                    
     COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF                
     DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.                                                   
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR            
     APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COFFEE-                    
     ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-                  
     WAYNE.                                                                     
     HARD FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR             
     APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COFFEE-                    
     ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-                  
     WAYNE.                                                                     
AM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA            
     TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA                  
     BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST                        
     AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.                     
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND             
     GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST                 
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT                
     20 NM.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HURLBUT/TRABERT                                                                 
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1250 AM EST THU JAN 3 2008                                                      
.AVIATION (06 TAFS)...                                                          
SFC RIDGING STARTING TO WORK DEEPER INTO THE REGION...THE LES IS                
STARING TO WANE. SCTD VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY MVFR ACROSS THE                
AREA. -SHSN AND SOME LOWER CIGS AROUND 2.5 TO 3.5 K FT STILL                    
AROUND THE SBN AND SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AREA...-SHSN WILL CONTINUE TO              
WEAKEN AND END BY 08-11Z. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY                         
CLEAR...WITH VFR EVERYWHERE AROUND 12-14Z. WINDS WILL INCREASE                  
FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME              
GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 PM EST WED JAN 2 2008/                          
HYDROLOGY... MUCH WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND ALONG                 
WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 40S ARE                    
EXPECTED TO MELT MUCH OF THE SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN CURRENT                
SOIL CONDITIONS...SNOW MELT AND EXPECTED RAINFALL...RIVER LEVELS                
ARE EXPECTED TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH RIVER                 
FLOODING LIKELY BY WEDNESDAY.                                                   
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 PM EST WED JAN 2 2008/                           
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
TRICKY FORECAST ONCE AGAIN WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS BEING THE ONGOING             
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA AND LOW TEMPS/CLEARING            
TONIGHT. RUC 13...12Z NAM AND SREF HAVE BEEN HANDLING SHORT                     
TERM/LAKE PROCESSES DECENT FOR THE MOST PART (WITH ADJUSTMENTS TO               
CURRENT OBS)...SO HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TO THEM.                                
POTENT SHORELINE BAND OVER PORTIONS OF LA PORTE AND BERRIEN COUNTIES            
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE EVENING...AND WAIN IN THE               
PROCESS. NAM H925 OMEGA FIELDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT TRANSITION FROM              
AN INTENSE SINGLE BAND TO MULTIPLE PARALLEL BANDS AS WINDS SHIFT MORE           
WESTERLY. GIVEN DECENT UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES CENTERED JUST                 
BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE/STRONG LL CONVERGENCE IN PLACE                  
INDICATED BY CONVERGENCE WIND SIGNATURE/COLLOCATION OF SFC SYNOPTIC             
TROUGH NEAR THE SOUTH END OF THE BAND/NAM BUFFER INDICATED LAKE                 
INDUCED CAPE VALUES OF NEARLY 350 J/KG...EXPECT HEAVY TO MODERATE               
SNOW TO PERSIST THROUGH THE ADVISORY PERIOD. ADVISORY MAY HAVE TO               
EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING FOR BERRIEN AND ST JOSEPH COUNTIES AS                 
MODELS MAY TO QUICK TO DIMINISH THE SNOW...ESPECIALLY WITH STRONG               
CONVERGENCE PRESENT PER 30 KNOT WINDS AT MICHIGAN CITY. BUT WITH                
EXTREMELY DRY MOVING IN UPSTREAM AND LOSS OF LAKE AGGREGATE                     
PROCESSES PER LOSS OF FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR...DIMINISHING TREND             
MAKES SENSE. WILL LET EVENING SHIFT RE-ASSES.                                   
CLEARING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL               
ALLOW EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AS WINDS DIMINISH. SNOW COVER IN            
PLACE WILL WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP QUICKLY...WITH SOME AREAS FALLING           
BELOW ZERO F. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS WELL BELOW MOS TO REFLECT DRY AIR IN           
PLACE...AND POTENTIAL DROP PER DRY AIR ALOFT. CLOUDS OVER EASTERN               
PORTIONS OF THE FA MAY ALSO CLEAR AS LAKE PRECESS WILL BE THE SOLE              
CONTRIBUTION TO THE CLOUD FIELD TONIGHT. HAVE TRIED TO ADJUST CLOUD             
COVER TO H925 TRENDS...AND REFLECT THIS IN MINS.                                
LOOK FOR CLEAR SKIES TOMORROW WITH COOL TEMPS ONCE AGAIN. HAVE UNDER            
CUT MOS GAIN DUE TO UPSTREAM TRENDS AND EXPECTED MIXING HEIGHTS. NW             
PORTIONS OF THE FA MAY SEE THE WARMER TEMPS AS WAA ENSUES AND ALLOWS            
RAPID THICKNESS INCREASES AND INCREASED LL FLOW.                                
LONG TERM...                                                                    
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE LONG WAVE TROF WILL BECOME               
REESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS THIS WEEKEND...WITH AN                   
AMPLIFYING RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. SMALLER SHORTWAVE           
TROFS WILL EJECT EAST OUT OF THE MAIN TROF...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR            
PRECIPITATION STARTING SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RISE               
ABOVE NORMAL AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS PERSIST. AREAS OF            
FOG WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AND               
MOVES OVER SNOW COVERED AREAS. THE FOG WILL PROBABLY PERSIST TO AT              
LEAST SOME EXTENT UNTIL THE SNOW MELTS...CONSIDERING DEW POINT                  
TEMPERATURES RISING TO NEAR 40F.  HIGHS WILL BE TEMPERED BY SNOW                
COVER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS WHERE                
SNOW COVER IS DEEPER AND WILL TAKE LONGER TO MELT. HAVE KEPT A                  
CHANCE FOR RAIN FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND ADDED A CHANCE FOR            
RAIN WEDNESDAY GIVEN SHORT WAVE TROFS MIGRATING NORTHEAST INTO THE              
GREAT LAKES REGION. A MAJOR TROF SHOULD MOVE EAST TUESDAY OR                    
WEDNESDAY...AND BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE RIVER FLOODING AS                  
RUNOFF RAIN WATER COMBINES WITH RECENT SNOW MELT. THE GFS PER                   
COMET/UCAR ENSEMBLE EXPERIMENTAL ANALYSIS CONTINUED TO INDICATE MUCH            
UNCERTAINTY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW BY THE                
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ043-046.           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...CHAMBERLAIN                                                        
LONG TERM...SKIPPER                                                             
AVIATION...SCHOTT                                                               
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1155 PM EST WED JAN 2 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE WANE FOR THE                
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS FLOW BACKS MORE WEST AND THEN               
SOUTHWEST WITH THE ARRIVAL OF LOW LEVEL RIDGING. EXPECT A MAINLY                
VFR STRATOCU DECK WILL HOLD FIRM FOR THE TAF SITES EARLY...GIVING               
WAY TO THICK JET-DRIVEN CIRRUS SHIELD FOR MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT                  
HOURS. ONE POSSIBLE ISSUE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR STRATOCU DECK TO                
HANG TIGHT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE REGION INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS                
DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW KICKS CLOUD DECK OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN                 
INLAND...THOUGH OVERALL CONFIDENCE ON THIS SCENARIO NOT HIGH...AND              
LIKELY ANY CEILINGS WOULD BE VFR. OTHERWISE...PRIMARY CONCERN FOR               
THE AFTERNOON WILL BE WIND...WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT AND DECENTLY              
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTING IN SOME RATHER GUSTY CONDITIONS                  
FROM 18Z ONWARD.                                                                
LAWRENCE                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE... /ISSUED 1057 PM EST WED JAN 2 2008/                                  
NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFEFCT CONTINUES TO ROLL ON GIVEN INFLUX OF                 
COLDEST AIRMASS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS (H85 TEMPS DIPPING TO               
ABOUT -18C PER RAOBS/RUC GUIDANCE) AND PASSAGE OF SUBTLE 700-500MB              
WAVE COUPLED WITH MORE THAN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...AS                 
900-700MB RH CONTINUES TO HOLD ABOUT 85%. HOWEVER...CHANGES ON THE              
WAY LATE TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALREADY MAKING QUICK                   
PROGRESS INTO THE U.P./UPPER MIDWEST...WITH OVERALL 1000-850 MB                 
FLOW TURNING WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST AND BEGINNING TO HAVE SOME                 
SUBTLE EFFECT PER UPSTREAM MQT RADAR DEPICTING A SUBTLE SHIFT IN                
BANDING STRUCTURE. EXPECT THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY               
MORNING HOURS...AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING TAKES OVER AND INVERSION                   
HEIGHTS CRASH PER ARRIVAL OF 1000-500MB DEEP LAYER RIDGING AND                  
SUBSEQUENT DRYING/LOSS OF MOISTURE ALOFT. IN TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT                
FASHION...ONGOING MOMENTUM OF SNOW BANDS LIKELY TO CARRY THE                    
PRECIP A BIT LONGER THAN MODELS WOULD SUGGEST (ESPECIALLY WITH                  
INITIAL SUPERIOR CONNECTION)...AND WILL THEREFORE HOLD ONTO HIGH                
POPS THROUGH ABOUT 09Z AS SHOULD SEE SOME BANDS CONTINUE BEFORE                 
QUICKLY ERODING BY SUNRISE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY ADDITIONAL                 
ACCUMULATIONS PER ONGOING LOSS OF MOISTURE SUPPORT...BUT PERHAPS                
UP TO AN INCH IF ANY BANDS CAN HOLD STILL LONG ENOUGH.                          
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT QUITE IFFY. OVERALL HAVE RAISED GOING                    
NUMBERS A TAD MOST SPOTS (MOST NOTICEABLE OVER NORTHWEST LOWER                  
MICHIGAN WHERE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT) AS                 
EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO LINGER A BIT LONGER...AND UPSTREAM THICK                  
JET-DRIVEN CIRRUS SHIELD WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS WELL.                      
HOWEVER...ALSO DEALING WITH EXCELLENT DRAINAGE FLOW OUT OF                      
ONTARIO...WITH NUMBERS TUMBLING OVER EASTERN UPPER. EXPECT THIS                 
SAME FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BLEED OUT ACROSS LAKE HURON AND INTO                  
NORTHERN LOWER...SO GOING NUMBERS AROUND 0 TO 5 LOOK A GOOD BET BY              
MORNING...BUT AGAIN WILL HAVE TO WATCH PROGRESSION OF CLOUDS AND                
POTENTIAL RELOCATION OF LAKE HURON STRATOCU DECK INTO NORTHEAST                 
LOWER AS FLOW TRIES TO KICK NORTHEAST.                                          
UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES ALREADY OUT.                                                
LAWRENCE                                                                        
&&                                                                              
DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM EST WED JAN 2 2008/                                
QUICK BURST OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW (LES) HAS PROGRESSED THRU EASTERN               
UPPER MI...AND IS ON TARGET TO DO THE SAME IN NORTHERN LOWER MI                 
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS                 
WILL MOVE TO MO TONIGHT...AND TO KY/TN THURSDAY. RIDGE AXIS WILL                
CROSS MI EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION BY                 
AFTERNOON AS SAID RIDGE MOVES EAST. PRECIP TRENDS THIS EVENING ARE              
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.                                                      
TONIGHT...SURFACE TROF AXIS NOW MOVING SOUTH ACROSS FAR NORTHERN                
LAKE MI...WITH A SMALL BULLSEYE OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE (850-700MB RH             
TO 90 PERCENT) ALONG FOR THE RIDE. THIS WILL BRING LES TO NW LOWER              
MI FROM LATE AFTERNOON THRU MID EVENING. PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC                     
ASSISTANCE IS BRIEF...BY MIDNIGHT THE BETTER MOISTURE IS WELL                   
DOWNSTATE...AND WE/RE FIGHTING OFF DRY AIR ADVECTION. GIVEN THE                 
COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE TROF...DELTA T/S NEAR             
20...AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...ISOLATED BURSTS OF INCH/HR SNOWS IS               
POSSIBLE (AND OCCURRED IN LUCE CO AT MIDDAY). BUT THAT COMBINATION              
OF ELEMENTS WILL NOT LAST LONG AT ALL...AND BANDS WILL NOT GET A                
CHANCE TO GET ORGANIZED BEFORE THINGS START TO SHUT DOWN.                       
SO WILL REDUCE SNOW ACCUMS A BIT FURTHER...WITH ONLY ISOLATED 2-INCH            
TOTALS POSSIBLE WEST OF I-75 IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.               
FOR OVERNIGHT...INSTABILITY REMAINS PLENTY SUFFICIENT FOR VIGOROUS              
LES IN BORDERLINE NNW/NW FLOW. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS FALLING OFF THE            
TABLE (850-700MB RH 50 PERCENT AT 06Z...40 PERCENT AT 09Z). PERHAPS             
MORE SIGNIFICANTLY...BIG RIDGING ARRIVES ON SUPERIOR AT 06Z...AND               
OUR WINDS WILL BE BACKING WEST TOWARD DAWN. THE LOSS OF THE SUPERIOR            
CONNECTION AND ARRIVAL OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL SPELL THE END OF               
LES. AND...IT/S WORTH NOTING THAT LES ON SUPERIOR NOW (BEHIND THE               
SURFACE TROF) IS LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE. END RESULT...JUST SCT LES IN             
THE SNOWBELTS OVERNIGHT...WITH MINIMAL ACCUMS.                                  
TEMPS OUTSIDE OF LES AREAS WILL AGAIN BE QUITE COLD...WITH SUB-ZERO             
READINGS LIKELY IN PLACES LIKE THE SAULT AND PLN. LAKE MI COASTAL               
LOCALES WILL SEE MINS CLOSER TO 10F.                                            
THURSDAY...BROAD RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS MID-                     
CONTINENT. A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL PASS NORTH OF             
SUPERIOR DURING THE DAY. THIS COULD BRING SOME CLOUD COVER TO                   
CHIPPEWA COUNTY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WEDGE OF               
DRY AIR BETWEEN 900 AND 700MB SHOULD LIMIT CHANCE OF PRECIP REACHING            
THE GROUND (IF ANYTHING...MAYBE A FLURRY OR TWO AT MOST...AND WILL              
NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW). OTHERWISE...INTENSE WARM                  
ADVECTION WILL OCCUR...BUT MAINLY ABOVE 900MB. STILL RELATIVELY COOL            
(AND MOIST) AIR TRAPPED BELOW 900MB. SO WE WILL STAY COOLISH (NOT AS            
COLD AS TODAY) AND MAINLY CLOUDY (BETWEEN LOW CLOUDS...AND THE                  
CIRRUS SHIELD HEADING OUR WAY FROM MANITOBA). MAX TEMPS WILL BE                 
MAINLY IN THE 20S...NEAR 30 AROUND TVC...THOUGH A BRISK SOUTHWEST               
WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL CHILLIER.                                                
SPEAKING OF WHICH...WILL ISSUE GALE WARNINGS FOR THE LAKE MI MARINE             
ZONES AND FOR WHITEFISH BAY FOR VERY LATE THURSDAY THRU FRIDAY                  
MORNING...THANKS TO STRONG SW WINDS.                                            
ZOLTOWSKI                                                                       
REST OF THE FORECAST (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT                               
WEDNESDAY)...PATTERN CHANGE STILL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK OVER THE               
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A DEEP WESTERN TROUGH FORCES DOWNSTREAM RIDGING            
ACROSS THE EAST COAST. THEREFORE...A WARMUP IS ON TAP LATER IN THE              
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...MODERATING                      
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ROUND OUT THE ABBREVIATED WORK WEEK                
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL             
REVOLVE AROUND POPS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AND JUST HOW WARM               
TEMPERATURES WILL GET.                                                          
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL LEVEL OFF                 
RESULTING IN A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS/SOUNDINGS                
SHOW QUITE A BIT OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BUT DRY MID AND LOWER                  
LEVELS (MEAN 850-500 MB RH 35 TO 45 PERCENT) SO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES             
SHOULD WORK. SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH PROGRESSIVELY            
MILDER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE BREEZE WILL KEEP                       
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE              
TEENS TO LOWER 20S EXPECTED. GALES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE                    
MICHIGAN ZONES ALONG WITH WHITEFISH BAY. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE UPPER              
20S TO LOWER 30S.                                                               
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE JUST A BIT                 
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BRING A RIPPLE THROUGH            
THE FLOW WHICH SLOWS WARMUP JUST A TAD AS WELL AS POSSIBLY BRINGING             
IN A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS. THE NAM/LAST NIGHTS ECMWF ARE              
MUCH MORE BULLISH WITH THE WARM AIR AND ARE MUCH DRIER. FOR NOW WILL            
CONTINUE WITH THE LOW CHANCE POPS AND ADD SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE RAIN            
SHOWERS AS GFS/UKMET WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH...ESPECIALLY IN THE                   
MORNING TO SUPPORT THIS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 20S (WITH              
PERHAPS A FEW UPPER TEENS EAST). HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MIDDLE TO                
PERHAPS UPPER 30S.                                                              
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN             
STATES CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY WHILE SENDING MINOR PIECES OF ENERGY                
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED THOUGH IF THIS              
ENERGY REMAINS MAINLY TO OUR WEST BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE             
POPS TO MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY/LINE UP WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. IN               
ADDITION...WITH WARMER AIR OVERRIDING THE SLOWLY MELTING                        
SNOWPACK...WILL ADD IN AREAS OF FOG. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT NOT FALLING            
TO MUCH FROM HIGHS ON SATURDAY (LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S) WITH HIGHS                 
SUNDAY CREEPING UP INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S.                               
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WESTERN TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST                    
BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.                    
EXTENDED MODELS VARY AS TO THE TIMING/DEPTH OF SURFACE DEVELOPMENT              
BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN AT SOME POINT            
DURING THIS TIME WITH MORE FOG. THE SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL MAY                   
EVENTUALLY LEAD TO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS AS WELL. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO             
LOWER 50S.                                                                      
WEDNESDAY...TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO CREEP CLOSER TO THE REGION               
WITH MORE SEASONABLE AIR ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST. WILL HAVE A               
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS MOISTURE LINGERS BEHIND THE                  
DEPARTING SYSTEM AND SURFACE COLD FRONT. NOT AS WARM WITH                       
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.                                    
SULLIVAN                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-            
     341-342-344>346.                                                           
LH...NONE.                                                                      
LS...GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ321.            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
302 AM CST THU JAN 3 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
OVERALL TREND THIS FORECAST IS TO LOWER MAX TEMPERATURES OVER NEXT              
COUPLE OF DAYS.                                                                 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS NOW OVER THE CNTRL CONUS WHILE COLD SFC                  
HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED FAR TO OUR SOUTHEAST. STRONG RETURN FLOW                
ALREADY UNDERWAY THIS MORNING WITH STRONG 850MB WAA ADVECTION. SFC              
TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY RISING OVERNIGHT WHERE WINDS ARE GUSTING                 
TO NEAR 25 MPH. DESPITE STRONG SWRLY 850MB WINDS TODAY...BUFKIT                 
FORECAST SOUNDINGS OFF GFS/NAM/RUC SHOW INVERSION HOLDING STRONG                
WITH LITTLE TO NO MIXING BELOW 925 MB. SNOW COVER ACROSS ENTIRE                 
FORECAST AREA WILL INHIBIT FULL HEATING POTENTIAL AS WELL SO HAVE               
BUMPED HIGHS DOWN BELOW MOS GUIDANCE AND THINK THE FREEZING MARK                
WILL BE A STRETCH AT MOST LOCATIONS TODAY.                                      
850MB WAA CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY...WITH INVERSION HOLDING STRONG               
AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH                  
CLOUDS FRIDAY AS WEAK VORT MAX MOVES THRU WHICH WOULD ALSO LIMIT HI             
TEMPS. AT SOME POINT...WITH ONGOING SNOW MELT AND AN INCREASE IN                
LLVL MOISTURE FM THE SOUTH...A STRATUS DECK WOULD BE EXPECTED TO                
DEVELOP. MODELS NOT LATCHING ONTO ANYTHING BUT AN AREA OF LOW                   
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AT THE 925MB LAYER ACROSS MO AND                 
SRN IA SAT MORNING. BEST CHANCE AT MIXING THRU THE INVERSION WILL               
BE ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A SFC TROF...PROVIDED STRATUS DECK HAS NOT              
DEVELOPED OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST AROUND +12C                 
AND SO WL CONT HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S. HAVE BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER                 
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING AS SUFFICIENT LLVL MOISTURE               
ADVECTION FM THE SOUTH AND RECENT SNOW MELT SHOULD HELP TO PRODUCE              
SOME STRATUS.                                                                   
SFC CDFNT WILL SWEEP THRU SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH BOTH 00Z                        
GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING. BOTH MODELS GENERATE QPF TO              
OUR NORTH AND WEST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH               
UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF DEEP TROF ACROSS THE                     
WESTERN CONUS. LOW POPS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST ALREADY ACCOUNT FOR THIS.          
EXTENDED PERIODS WILL BE CHALLENGING AS THE PROGRESSION OF THE                  
UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS IS QUITE VARIABLE AMONG               
VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS. MADE NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...FOR TAF SITES KOFK/KLNK/KOMA                                        
WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AS               
VFR VSBYS/CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. PROFILER NETWORK              
WAS SHOWING 40KT SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST FLOW AT ABOUT 1500-2000FT OFF               
THE SURFACE...WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS RUNNING BETWEEN 10 AND                  
15KT.  SURFACE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO COME UP THROUGH THE                     
MORNING...BUT SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SPEED SHEAR IS LIKELY AT TIMES                
THROUGH ABOUT 15Z OR 16Z. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 15               
AND 30KT DURING THE DAY BEFORE DROPPING OFF AFTER 00Z.                          
&&                                                                              
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GRIFFIS/DERGAN                                                                  
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
235 AM CST THU JAN 3 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS EARLY WIND HEADLINES ALONG WITH                     
TEMPERATURES.  MODELS IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH PERIOD AND              
WILL USE BLEND FOR FORECAST.                                                    
INITIAL CONCERN IS ONGOING STRONG WIND AND HEADLINES. RUC SHOWING               
CORE OF LOW LEVEL JET CURRENTLY OVER VALLEY REGION AND SHIFTS                   
FEATURE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST AND OUT OF FA BY 12Z. WINDS IN DVL BASIN            
DOWN TO 15KT SO WILL MONITOR TRENDS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MAY BE            
ABLE TO CANCEL AT MORNING ISSUANCE BUT WILL SEE WHAT HAPPENS NEXT               
COUPLE OF HOURS. FOR REMAINDER OF DAY WARM ADVECTION NOT AS ROBUST              
AND GRADIENT RELAXES DURING COURSE OF DAY. LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF                
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FOR FILTERED SOLAR AT BEST. WITH MIXING                  
TAILING OFF AND SHARP INVERSION WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES TOWARDS                  
COOLER NUMERICAL GUIDANCE VALUES. WARMEST TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO BE             
IN HIGHER TERRAIN OVER WESTERN FA. GFS HINTING AT POSSIBLE ST                   
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS FAR EAST AND SOUTHERN FA AS CONDENSATION PRESSURE            
DEFICITS AROUND 900-950 MB LOWER ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT.                    
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON FZDZ POTENTIAL BUT AM HESITANT TO PULL                   
MENTION. WILL LEAVE GOING AND LET DAY SHIFT MONITOR TRENDS FOR ST               
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.                                                     
DEGREE AND ALTITUDE OF CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL HAVE IMPACT ON                  
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. IF LOWER CIGS DO DEVELOP WILL SEE WARMEST                 
MINIMUMS OVER SOUTH AND EAST AND WILL CONTINUE TREND.                           
WARM ADVECTION INCREASES AGAIN FRIDAY AS THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST              
EDGING INTO FA. BOTH GFS AND NAM INDICATING SUFFICIENT MIXING                   
HOWEVER SURFACE FLOW FROM S-SE DIRECTION...NOT FAVORABLE FOR                    
SIGNIFICANT WARMING. FOR THIS WILL STAY CONSERVATIVE WITH MAXIMUM               
TEMPERATURES.                                                                   
THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS OVER FA ON SATURDAY AND COULD WELL BE WARMEST              
DAY. BEST POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE OVER WESTERN FA AS WINDS TURN MORE              
W-SW DURING AFTERNOON.                                                          
WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES FA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. MOISTURE                      
AVAILABILITY NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE SO WILL NOT EXPAND POPS.                       
SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK NOT QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE SO NOT PLANNING ON               
ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO LONGER RANGE.                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
GRADIENT RELAXES DURING EARLY AM HOURS SO WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF                 
SIGNIFICANTLY BY DAY BREAK. OTHERWISE LOOKING AT MAINLY MID/UPPER               
LEVEL CIGS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CIGS ACROSS FAR                   
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FORECAST AREA HOWEVER CONFIDENCE NOT VERY HIGH             
AT THIS POINT. IF LOWER CIGS DO DEVELOP MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FREEZING            
DRIZZLE.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
VOELKER                                                                         
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
331 AM CST THU JAN 3 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT                                      
THE 500 HPA RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IS NOW MOVING                
INTO THE PLAINS...AND STRONG WARM ADVECTION HAS OCCURRED IN THE                 
PAST SIX OR SO HOURS WITH SOUTHERLY 925 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS 60 TO               
65 KNOTS IN SOME PLACES PER THE NAM/RUC SOUNDINGS. THIS HAS                     
ASSISTED IN NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN                
CWA THIS MORNING WITH BRIEF STINTS AT KATY AND K8D3 OF 30 TO 35                 
MPH WINDS OBSERVED. EVEN AS THE AXIS OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT PUSHES               
TO THE EAST...KABR IS STILL OBSERVED TO RECORD 25 MPH WINDS IN                  
BLOWING SNOW AT 0830Z. WITH WINDS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE                
15 KNOTS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA THROUGH THE FIRST                  
PART OF THE MORNING...EXTENDED THE BLOWING SNOW MENTION THROUGH                 
15Z IN THESE AREAS. IN ADDITION...A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS THROUGH               
12Z. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT ALL STATIONS                
ACROSS THE EAST...BUT WITH THE STRONG WINDS STILL NOT FAR ABOVE                 
THE SURFACE...30+ MPH WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE SO WILL LEAVE                    
ADVISORY RUNNING THROUGH 6AM CST.                                               
A QUIET REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM IS STILL IN STORE WITH THE                  
WARMER PACIFIC AIR STILL MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.               
NAM/RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 850 HPA TEMPERATURES RISING TO +11          
TO +13 C BY LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CWA ON THE HEELS OF THE               
STRONG WARM ADVECTION...THEN DECREASING SOMEWHAT BUT REMAINING IN               
THE +5 TO +10 C RANGE THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM. THUS...WARMER              
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE AREA THE                 
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE WARMEST DAY APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY...AS WINDS                
WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH LIMITED                          
MIXING...BUT MORE MIXING SHOULD OCCUR ON SATURDAY TO BRING DOWN                 
STRONGER WINDS...LIMITING CLOUD POTENTIAL AND INCREASING THE                    
POTENTIAL FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES. MET GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NEAR                   
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY IN THE 40S AND 50S...PARTICULARLY          
IN THE WESTERN CWA...SO THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON                
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.                                                       
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...THERE IS STILL SOME INTEREST IN FOG                    
POTENTIAL THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. 00Z NAM SOUNDINGS              
CONTINUE TO INDICATE STRONG WARM ADVECTION OVER THE SURFACE                     
LEADING TO A DEEP LAYER ABOVE FREEZING ALOFT...BUT A LARGE                      
INVERSION JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH IT               
DUE TO THE CURRENT SNOW COVER AS WELL AS MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM                
THE SOUTH. THE SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE WIDESPREAD LOW                           
STRATUS/POSSIBLE FOG UNDER THE INVERSION...WITH TEMPERATURES AT                 
THE SURFACE REMAINING RATHER COOL RELATIVE TO THE WARM AIR ALOFT.               
THE 00Z GFS IS SIMILAR IN SHOWING A VERY LARGE INVERSION...THOUGH               
IT IS NOT AS STRONG WITH THE WARM AIR ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL                       
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE COARSER RESOLUTION OF THE GFS IN THE              
BOUNDARY LAYER...NOT SURPRISED TO SEE THIS. THE NAM ALSO INDICATES              
LIGHT TO NO WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE UNDER THE INVERSION FOR MUCH                 
OF THIS 36 HOUR TIME PERIOD FROM 00Z FRIDAY TO 12Z SATURDAY...AND               
OCCASIONALLY DEPICTS LITTLE TO NO WIND ALL THE WAY UP TO 800 HPA                
AS WELL. THOUGH THE GFS HAS A BIT STRONGER WINDS...POSSIBLY DUE IN              
PART TO THE COARSER BOUNDARY LAYER RESOLUTION...THINK THAT IF THE               
INVERSION DOES SET UP AS STRONG AS BOTH MODELS SUGGEST...EVEN IF                
THE WINDS ARE A BIT STRONGER THEY MAY SIMPLY FLOW OVER THE                      
INVERSION WITH LITTLE AIR MOVEMENT AT THE SURFACE BELOW IT.                     
THUS...FEEL IT IS A GOOD IDEA TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG IN              
THE GRIDS AT THIS POINT...EVEN THOUGH EXACT TIMING IS STILL                     
RELATIVELY UNCLEAR. ANY FOG THAT WOULD FORM WOULD GREATLY                       
INFLUENCE TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS HELP MAINTAIN THE INVERSION...SO            
LOWERED HIGHS A BIT IN THE EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.                
ACROSS THE EAST ON SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE               
INTO THE 30S AND POSSIBLY 40S IN AREAS AS INCREASED MIXING                      
LEADS TO STRONGER SURFACE WINDS...PREVENTING FOG POTENTIAL AND                  
TAPPING INTO WARMER AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE.                                      
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY                                           
MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE THE INCONSISTENCY                
BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL START OFF                 
FEATURING A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE                           
COUNTRY...AND A RIDGE OVER THE EAST. THE GFS SLIDES THE TROUGH TO               
THE ROCKIES BY TUESDAY MORNING...THEN HAS IT MERGING WITH ANOTHER               
TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND BECOMING SITUATED OVER                
THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH FASTER...PUSHING THE                 
TROUGH TO THE PLAINS BY TUESDAY MORNING...THEN QUICKLY EASTWARD                 
AND NEVER MERGING WITH THE NEXT TROUGH...THOUGH THAT TROUGH DOES                
MOVE OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY.                                                 
AT THE SURFACE...GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS OF A TROUGH                  
OVER THE PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER               
THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING...AND THAT IS WHERE ANY REASONABLE                      
AGREEMENT ENDS. THE GFS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM               
EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY EVENING TO WISCONSIN BY MONDAY                          
EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION OVER THE CWA MUCH OF MONDAY. THE                   
ECMWF HAS A MUCH WEAKER FASTER MOVING LOW WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY                
OF PRECIPITATION. THE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING CONTINUES THROUGH THE               
END OF THE PERIOD AS THE ECMWF TRACKS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE                  
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THE GFS IS ABOUT 12 HOURS BEHIND. CURRENT                 
MODEL DISCREPANCIES APPEAR TO GET EVEN WORSE PAST THE END OF THE                
LONG TERM PERIOD. SO...BASICALLY CHANGED VERY LITTLE IN THE                     
EXTENDED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND                   
MONDAY. AFTER PERUSING THROUGH GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS...IT APPEARS              
THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY DECENT LAYER OF WARM AIR ALOFT THAT COULD                
RESULT IN PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AS FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY                       
NIGHT...AND HAVE SPREAD THAT CHANCE FURTHER WEST THAN THE PREVIOUS              
FORECAST INDICATED. SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATING THE COOLER AIR                    
TAKING OVER SOONER ON MONDAY...SO WENT WITH ALL SNOW IN THE NORTH               
AND A POSSIBLE MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTH. BY MONDAY                  
NIGHT...ANY CONTINUING PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL SNOW. DRY                    
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES                
IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW.                                                      
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY MILD ON SUNDAY AS WEAK WAA                    
CONTINUES AND H85 TEMPS REMAIN JUST ABOVE ZERO. THE COOLER AIR                  
BEGINS TO GET PULLED INTO THE REGION EARLY MONDAY...WITH H85 TEMPS              
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO FROM MONDAY EVENING ONWARD. WENT                
WITH A SLIGHT COOLING TREND MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THOUGH                   
TEMPS LOOK TO BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL.                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS                      
MORNING FROM THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD...MAINLY AFFECTING                 
KABR...KATY AND K8D3. VSBYS MAY FALL TO AROUND 2SM AT TIMES DUE TO              
BLOWING SNOW...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. THE STRONG               
WINDS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW... WILL SUBSIDE AFTER                
12Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA WITH                
SCT- BKN HIGH CLOUDS AOA 20K FEET STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION.                  
VSBYS WILL BE UNRESTRICTED.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR CLARK-                 
     CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS.                         
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR BIG STONE-             
     TRAVERSE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...ECKSTEIN                                                           
LONG TERM...PARKIN                                                              
AVIATION...PARKIN                                                               
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN                                                            
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA                                       
445 AM PST THU JAN 3 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...RUNNING LATE AND WILL TRY AND KEEP THIS TO THE POINT.             
IN GENERAL VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND THINKING.             
HAVE UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING STARTING AT NOON ALONG           
THE COAST FROM PIGEON POINT NORTHWARD AS WELL AS THE NORTH BAY HILLS.           
THE WARNING GOES INTO EFFECT AT 4 PM FOR THE REST OF THE CWA...THIS             
MAY BE A LITTLE EARLY BUT WANTING TO GIVE ADVANCE WARNING. THE NEXT             
EIGHT HOURS OR SO COULD APTLY BE LABELED THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM.             
IF YOU HAVEN`T TAKEN ACTION NOW SUCH AS TYING DOWN LOOSE ITEMS...               
CLEARING GUTTERS...ETC NOW IS YOUR LAST CHANCE.                                 
DOPPLER RADAR PICKING UP A FEW LIGHT RETURNS ALOFT THAT WILL ACT TO             
MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS. CURRENT SATELLITE AND WATER VAPOR SHOWS               
THAT THE FIRST FRONT OF INTEREST IS OUT NEAR 38N/130W. THIS IS ON               
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STORM NOW MOVING TOWARDS THE COAST OF             
SOUTHERN CANADA. WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST THAT               
WILL DRIVE THE BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE NORCAL COAST BY ABOUT MIDDAY                
TODAY. LATEST GFS/WRF AND RUC MODELS INDICATE STEADY LIGHT RAINS TO             
BEGIN AROUND THIS TIME. A FEW PRE-FRONTAL SCOUT SHOWERS WILL BE                 
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS. MODELS INDICATE THAT 60 KNOT WINDS ARE TO               
DEVELOP JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON.               
THEREFORE PUT THE HIGH WIND WARNING INTO EFFECT FROM PIGEON POINT               
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST AS WELL AS THE NORTH BAY HILLS BEGINNING              
AT NOON. NO DOUBT THE MAIN WIND EVENT WILL OCCUR WITH THE SECOND                
SYSTEM LATER TONIGHT. THE REAL INTERESTING WEATHER LOOKS TO OCCUR               
ROUGHLY FROM 06Z-20Z FRIDAY. DURING THIS PERIOD VERY STRONG WINDS               
AND HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR. THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE                   
TREACHEROUS AT BEST.  ONCE THE RAIN STARTS TONIGHT IT WILL BECOME               
VERY HEAVY IN THE HILLS. MODELS INSIST THAT AROUND 18Z FRIDAY A                 
FINAL BURST OF VERY HEAVY RAIN SHOULD OCCUR...WITH RAINFALL RATES               
ON THE ORDER OF INCHES PER HOUR IN THE HEAVIEST LOCATIONS. ITS NOTED            
THAT NAM MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES NEARLY 20 MICROBARS OF LIFT AT 700              
MB DURING THIS TIME...VERY IMPRESSIVE. SO NEEDLESS TO SAY THAT RAIN             
RATES ALONE WILL CAUSE HYDRO ISSUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH MINOR                
URBAN FLOODING LIKELY AS STORM DRAINS AND CULVERTS BACK-UP.                     
THE STRONG WINDS MAY BE OF GREATER CONCERN WITH ONE OF THE STRONGER             
AND MORE WIDESPREAD WIND EVENTS THAT WEVE SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME.              
ANY WEAKENED TREES OR POWER LINES WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TONIGHT                   
THROUGH FRIDAY TO FALLING OVER. POWER OUTAGES SHOULD BE EXPECTED.               
A COOL SHOWERY REGIME WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LOWERING              
SNOW LEVEL EVEN ACROSS THE BAY AREA. VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE                  
EXTENDED GRID PACKAGE.                                                          
FINALLY...FOLKS PLANNING TRAVEL TO THE SIERRA SHOULD PLAN                       
ACCORDINGLY. TRAVEL TO AND FROM THERE WILL BE NEAR IMPOSSIBLE BY                
THIS EVENING. IT WOULD SEEM LIKELY THAT ALL THE TRANS-SIERRA PASSES             
WILL BE CLOSED FOR LONG PERIODS OF TIME FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.              
EVEN FOLKS PLANNING ACTIVITIES IN THE BAY AREA HILLS SHOULD PLAN                
FOR SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS.                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...CLOUDS ARE INCREASING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE                
BAY AREA TERMINALS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED AT             
SFO...OAK AND STS. TERMINALS TO THE SOUTH WILL MAINTAIN VFR                     
CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z AT WHICH POINT CIGS WILL BECOME MVFR.                    
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR ALL SAN FRANCISCO BAY TERMINALS            
THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE REACH 25 KTS WITH GUSTS INTO              
THE MID 30S. THE DISTRICT WILL ALSO SEE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN                  
BEGINNING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH TOMORROW.                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF OUR                   
COASTLINE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WAVE MODEL FORECASTS SHOW W-NW               
SWELL INCREASING OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS...PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY            
WHEN W-NW SWELL PEAK 28-30 FEET RANGE WITH PERIODS OF 16 SECONDS. IF            
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS HIGH SWELL IN LATER FORECASTS THEN             
THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING AT A LATER TIME.           
A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD AS              
THE HIGH SURF...WINDS AND TIDES WILL LIKELY CAUSE COASTAL FLOODING              
IN FLOOD-PRONE AREAS.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
    .TDA....GALE WARNING ALL WATERS BY THIS EVENING WITH ROUGH BAR.             
    .TDA....HIGH WIND WARNING ENTIRE SAN FRANCISCO AND MONTEREY                 
            BAY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.                  
        ....COASTAL FLOOD WATCH AND HIGH SURF ADVY THIS AFTERNOON               
            THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON FROM SONOMA COUNTY THRU MONTEREY              
            COUNTY.                                                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC FORECAST: WALBRUN                                                        
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY                                                          
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO                                      
</pre> ca                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
345 AM MST THU JAN 3 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)                                                             
SHORT TERM CONCERNS INCLUDE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH PRECIP                      
CHANCES ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TONIGHT.                                  
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING               
MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE STATE WITH FASTER ZONAL              
FLOW AND AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES              
ATTM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVING             
ONSHORE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CALIF COAST WITH AMPLE MID AND UPPER                
LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM INTO THE DESERT SW             
ATTM. AT THE SFC...LEE TROUGHING CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE I-25            
CORRIDOR KEEPING TEMPS ALL OVER THE BOARD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH              
CURRENT READINGS IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND                  
IMMEDIATE PLAINS...TEENS AND 20S ACROSS THE REST OF THE HIGHER                  
TERRAIN AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER                
VALLEY AND ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SAN LUIS             
VALLEY ATTM.                                                                    
TODAY...EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES CONTINUES               
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WITH LEE TROUGHING PUSHING ACROSS             
THE EASTERN PLAINS IN RESPONSE...WHICH LOOKS TO FINALLY SCOUR OUT               
THE COOL AIR PERSISTING ACROSS THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY WITH             
HIGHS SLOWLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. TOUGH CALL ON              
TEMPS ACROSS THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES AND IMMEDIATE PLAINS WITH THE             
VERY MILD IN PLACE ATTM...THOUGH WILL SLOWLY DECREASING DOWNSLOPE               
FLOW AND INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM WEST TO                      
EAST...HAVE GONE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH 30S TO               
MID 40S ACROSS THE REST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN TOUGH CALL ON              
HIGHS IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS HAMPERING              
GOOD MIXING AND HAVE KEPT HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.                    
TONIGHT...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST AS SOUTHERN CALIF SHORT             
WAVE CONTINUES ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND NOSES INTO THE FOUR              
CORNERS REGION BY 12Z. MOISTURE AND UVV CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS             
WESTERN COLORADO AHEAD OF SYSTEM AND HAVE INCREASED POPS WITH BEST              
CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS THE SW MTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.  LEE             
TROUGHING REDEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR                   
KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOWS QUITE MILD AGAIN ACROSS THE LOWER EASTERN                
SLOPES AND IMMEDIATE PLAINS. -MW                                                
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)                                                      
...PROLONGED SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...EVENT CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SATURDAY          
THROUGH MONDAY...                                                               
...BREEZY-WINDY AND MILD/WARM EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FRIDAY-SUNDAY...       
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ENSEMBLE DATA CONTINUES TO PROJECT WEST-                
SOUTHWESTERLY CHINOOK(SNOW-EATER) MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW                    
PATTERN FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. THIS WOULD PROMOTE                      
MILD/WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN CO...ESPECIALLY                  
ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEAST CO PLAINS FRIDAY THROUGH                  
SUNDAY. THERE IS SOME MODEL DIVERGENCE WITH A SYSTEM DEVELOPING                 
NEAR CO ON MONDAY. ONE RUN-TO-RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY IS PARTS OF                 
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE GETTING HAMMERED BY SNOW...MAINLY THE                    
HIGHER TERRAIN. LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A                   
COUPLE OF MOISTURE SOURCE REGIONS...ONE NORTHEAST OF HAWAII AND                 
ANOTHER SOUTHEAST OF HAWAII. SATELLITE DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE               
WATER INDICES HAD THESE AREAS FAIRLY MOIST. THIS COULD BE A MOSTLY              
PROLONGED OROGRAPHIC DRIVEN EVENT FOR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE                    
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 3 FEET...ESPECIALLY FOR              
FAVORED OROGRAPHIC AREAS LIKE WOLF CREEK...CUMBRES PASS...AND                   
MONARCH PASS TO NAME A FEW...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE COULD               
BE MORE SNOWFALL SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS OF               
15 TO 35 MPH WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH WOULD CREATE                     
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND MAKING FOR HORRENDOUS MOUNTAIN                    
TRAVEL CONDITIONS AROUND THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. SOUTHWEST FLOW                 
DOES NOT PROMOTE THE GREATEST OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT FOR THE LA                   
GARITA AND SAWATCH MOUNTAIN RANGES...BUT THERE ARE BOUTS OF                     
WESTERLY FLOW THAT WOULD INCREASE THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL FOR THOSE              
AREA. PLAN TO HOLD OFF ISSUING A WINTER STORM WATCH...BUT WILL                  
HIGHLIGHT THE HIGH IMPACT WINTER CONDITIONS IN THE HAZARDOUS                    
WEATHER OUTLOOK AND CR NEWS OF THE DAY STORY. EAST OF THE                       
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...THE COMBINATION OF VIGOROUS MOUNTAIN TOP FLOW              
AND STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT BREEZY-WINDY                 
CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY VERY WINDY ACROSS OUR EASTERN CO MOUNTAIN                 
TOPS...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. EVEN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY COULD SEE                
BREEZY CONDITIONS EACH DAY BRINGING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S           
CLOSE TO 40F. LOWER TERRAIN SNOWPACK SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY                   
EACH DAY GIVEN THE WEST- SOUTHWEST CHINOOK FLOW. 700MB TEMPERATURES             
OF 0C TO +3C COULD TAKE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ACROSS                
SOUTHEAST CO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE A                
CHALLENGE GIVEN A STRONG THERMAL /BANANA- BELT/ INVERSION                       
GENERALLY AT 6K-9K FT MSL JUST WEST OF I-25 CORRIDOR TOWARDS THE                
MOUNTAINS.                                                                      
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST. METZE                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR TAF SITES THROUGH                        
TONIGHT...THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SEE INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL             
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.                                              
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
23/17                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
1035 AM EST THU JAN 3 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A LARGE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS                    
AFTERNOON...AND CREST TO OUR SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL THEN            
TRANSFORM INTO A BERMUDA TYPE HIGH...WHICH IS A VERY UNUSUAL EVENT              
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS IT PARKS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD...IT                
WILL SLOWLY BUT SURELY SEND A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF INCREASINGLY                
MILD AIR OUR WAY AS HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.  TEMPERATURES WILL                   
MODERATE BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS BY SUNDAY.                               
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY/...                                             
A 1041 MB ARCTIC SFC HIGH PER THE LATEST RUC13 OUTPUT IS MOVING FROM            
ERN LAKE ONTARIO OVER UPSTATE NY.  THE FRIGID AIR MASS WILL ONLY BE             
SHORT LIVED THOUGH.  HOWEVER...TEMPS THIS MORNING WERE A LITTLE                 
COLDER THAN THE FORECAST AND WE HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMP TODAY /ABOUT 3            
DEGREES ACROSS THE FCST AREA OR SO/ TO ONLY REACH 10 DEGREES IN THE             
CAPITAL REGION...AND LOWER TEENS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.  THE                 
HILLS AND MTNS WILL ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS DESPITE SUNNY                  
CONDITIONS. THE 12 KALB SOUNDING IS A CLASSIC ARCTIC SOUNDING.  THE             
INVERSION IS DOWN BELOW 4 KFT...HENCE IT WILL BE HARD TO BREAK 10               
DEGREES AT KALB.                                                                
THE WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE...BUT STILL A 5-10 MPH                
WIND WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS ABOUT 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO PRIOR            
TO NOON.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                 
TONIGHT...WE STILL BELIEVE WITH AN INITIALLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND               
LITTLE OR NO WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP FAST OVER THE EXTENSIVE              
SNOW PACK. WE STILL FEEL MOST MOS NOS ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH AND                   
GENERALLY DO NOT RESOLVE SKIN TEMPERATURES WELL...ESPECIALLY WHEN               
WARM ADVECTION COMMENCES ALOFT. IT LOOKS LIKE HIGH AND MID LEVEL                
CLOUDS...THE RESULT OF THE FIRST THRUST OF WARM AIR                             
ADVECTION...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE..WILL ARRIVE AROUND               
06Z. IF THESE CLOUDS ARE DELAYED A BIT LONGER...OUR PROJECTED LOW               
TEMPERATURES ARE PROBABLY GOING TO NOT BE COLD ENOUGH. WITH THE WARM            
AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS...AND LITTLE BIT MORE MOISTURE...IT WOULD NOT              
TAKE MUCH FORCING TO RING A LITTLE ICE CRYSTAL ACTION OUT OF THE                
CLOUDS ACROSS OUR HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH. WILL KEEP LOW/SLIGHT             
CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THOSE AREAS TONIGHT.                         
TOMORROW...AS THE FIRST SURGE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PASSES BY...HIGH            
PRESSURE WILL START SPRAWLING TO OUR SOUTH...HEIGHTS ALOFT BEGIN TO             
RISE...AND H850 TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM SLIGHTLY TO ABOUT -8C.            
WHAT WE HAVE NOTICED IN THE PAST...IS THAT MOS NOS USUALLY WARM THE             
SURFACE TOO FAST DURING THE WINTER MONTHS (ESPECIALLY WHEN THERE IS             
A SNOW PACK). HOWEVER...LOOKING AT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE              
USUAL STRONG INVERSION WILL NOT BE PRESENT...IN FACT...THE COLUMN               
LOOKS TO MIX PRETTY WELL. STILL...WITH -8C OR SO H850 HPA TEMPS AND             
THE SNOW PACK...STILL FEEL TEMPERATURES WILL NOT GET QUITE AS HIGH              
AS MOS MAV NOS INDICATE SO WENT A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW THEM.                    
NEVERTHELESS...TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 20S WILL BE A MARKED                  
IMPROVEMENT COMPARED TO TODAY`S FRIGID READINGS.                                
TEMPERATURES WILL OBVIOUSLY FALL BACK FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT NOTHING                
LIKE THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS. WE MIGHT HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT BREEZE IN             
MOST PLACES...ALONG WITH SOME HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WHICH SHOULD                
KEEP TEMPS FROM FREE FALLING. FOR NOW...ACCEPTED THE MAV NOS WHICH              
LOOK REASONABLE.                                                                
BY SATURDAY...A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING FURTHER MODERATION BUT            
NOT DRAMATIC YET. SHOULD ENJOY YET ANOTHER DRY DAY...ALTHOUGH BY                
DAY`S END CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MIGHT TEND TO                        
THICKEN.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                    
THIS PERIOD WILL BE SIGNIFIED BY A FEW BOUTS OF WARM ADVECTION                  
PRECIP (LIGHT) AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL.  JUST HOW                
MUCH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESPOND TO THIS WARM ADVECTION REMAINS             
TO BE SEEN (FROZEN GROUND WITH SNOW COVER).  STILL APPEARS THAT 50+             
DEGREE WEATHER INTO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS FOR NEXT WEEK.                         
THE INITIAL SHOT OF WARM ADVECTION ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT                       
ACCOMPANIED BY WEAK SHORT WAVE.  THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE              
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR WINTRY MIXTURE.  THICKNESS SCHEMES AND BUFR                 
FILES SHOW A DISCONNECT IN THE MOISTURE PROFILE WITH THE CHANCE FOR             
LIGHT SNOW/SLEET/FZRA(DZ).  SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FORECAST                  
MIXTURE AT THIS TIME.                                                           
BEYOND THIS TIME FRAME...IT SEEMS THE MODEL QPF/S SHOW LITTLE AND               
INTERMITTENT BOUTS OF SOME PRECIP BUT FEEL PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW            
TO WARRANT PRECIP CHANCES AT THIS TIME.  THE NEXT SHOT OF ORGANIZED             
PRECIP ARRIVES DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING                  
DIFFERENCES REMAINING.  ALTHOUGH...AHEAD OF THIS                                
FEATURE...IMPRESSIVE WARM UP EXPECTED WITH 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO              
AROUND +10C!  AGAIN JUST HOW MUCH OF THIS WARMTH IS REALIZED NEAR               
THE GROUND REMAINS TO BE SEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE TEMPS              
WELL INTO THE 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                      
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FORECAST CYCLE AS MAIN                
LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION AND WEAKENING.  MID             
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES TONIGHT...SIGNIFYING A PATTERN                  
CHANGE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.  WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TODAY FROM A              
NORTHERLY DIRECTION BUT QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING.                          
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
FRI-SAT...VFR...WITH NO SIG WX AT THIS TIME.                                    
SAT NT-SUN...MVFR...POTENTIAL FOR -DZ...-FZDZ (NOCTURNAL                        
CONCERN).                                                                       
MON...VFR...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR FOR CIGS.                                        
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
NO MAJOR HYDROLOGY CONCERNS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS TEMPERATURES             
WILL BE WELL BELOW FREEZING LIKELY CAUSING SIGNIFICANT ICE BUILD                
UP.  HOWEVER...A DRAMATIC WARM UP IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEKEND AND             
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.  THIS MAY POTENTIALLY CAUSE NOT               
ONLY MELTING AND RIVER RISES...BUT ICE JAM CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO             
INCREASE.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
MA...NONE.                                                                      
VT...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...TAW/HWJIV                                                            
NEAR TERM...TAW                                                                 
SHORT TERM...HWJIV                                                              
LONG TERM...BGM                                                                 
AVIATION...BGM                                                                  
HYDROLOGY...BGM                                                                 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY                                                          
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1020 AM EST THU JAN 3 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...LATEST RUC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING REVEALS THE MID LEVEL                
RIDGE AXIS CENTERED ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER THE NORTH-SOUTH AXIS OF THE            
EASTERN SHORE OF LAKE MICHIGAN. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE                    
STARTING TO TURN SOUTHERLY NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE WITH THE            
ARRIVAL OF THIS AXIS. THE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM                   
OVERNIGHT HAS DWINDLED TO NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES...AFFECTING                
AREAS ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE...INTO AREAS AROUND THE                 
STRAITS. A SECONDARY AREA OF FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IS             
MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS IN THE VICINITY OF GRAND RAPIDS.                        
HOWEVER...LAST FEW RADAR SCANS HAS SHOWN A WEAKENING TREND. THIS                
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE AS IT LOSES ANY HELP FROM UPSLOPE                
FLOW. THE NAM AND GFS KEEP ENOUGH SHALLOW INSTABILITY AROUND INTO               
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TO KEEP INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 3KFT                 
AROUND LAKE MICHIGAN. THUS...SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED            
OUT INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE                      
SHORELINE...STRETCHING NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.                   
FINALLY...BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL TAKE                
OVER...AND WE SHOULD JUST BE LEFT WITH SOME VERY SHALLOW LAKE CLOUDS            
NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.                                               
IN THE MEANTIME...MID LEVEL CLOUDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE                
AXIS ARE ALREADY INVADING NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING AND WILL               
OVERTAKE THE AREA BY MIDDAY. THUS...WILL BUMP UP SKY COVER A BIT TO             
REFLECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS VERY                
LITTLE SUN WILL BE SEEN. IN ASSOCIATION WITH INCREASING CLOUD                   
COVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE BUMPED DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN             
MOST PLACES. WE SHOULD STILL SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE                    
LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 20S NEAR THE LAKE                 
MICHIGAN SHORELINE. OVERALL...FAIRLY CLOSE TO SEASONAL HIGH                     
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY JANUARY.                                                 
NOW TAKING A LOOK AT WINDS. THE MIXED LAYER OFF THE 12Z MODELS THIS             
MORNING STILL CONTAIN 40 TO 45 KNOT WINDS. WINDS DROP OFF AS YOU                
HEAD FURTHER SOUTH...SO WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY AS IT APPEARS. GALES             
STILL LOOK GOOD AS WELL...SO NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR ANY OF THE                  
HEADLINES.                                                                      
WILL MAKE A MENTION OF PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IN THE AREAS WHICH SAW 1             
TO 3 INCHES OF VERY LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW LAST NIGHT...WHICH INCLUDES               
NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN...MAINLY NORTH OF M-72...AND ACROSS EASTERN            
UPPER MICHIGAN. THE NATURE OF THE SNOW WILL ALLOW IT TO BLOW AROUND             
THIS AFTERNOON.                                                                 
KAS                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION... /ISSUED 655 AM EST THU JAN 3 2008/                                 
A CORE OF WINDS AROUND 5000 FEET WILL APPROACH 50 KNOTS WILL AFFECT             
ALL OF THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, BUT PLN AND APN                
WILL BE THE MOST AFFECTED WITH WIND GUSTS AT THE SFC TO NEAR 35                 
KNOTS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THAT WAS AFFECTING              
TVC HAS MOVED NORTH IN PLN AND WAS DIMINISHING TO JUST FLURRIES.                
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO HAVE STOPPED BY 15Z.                 
LUTZ                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM EST THU JAN 3 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...1000-850 MB WIND RIDGE AXIS IS NOW THROUGH MOST OF                 
N LOWER IS BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS PRESENCE KNOWN WITH THE SNOW BANDS.            
WHILE MAINTAINING SOME NW FLOW CHARACTERISTICS, THE SNOW BANDS ARE              
BEGINNING TO MOVE TO THE NE PER THE APX 88D RADAR. MOST OF THE                  
SNOW IS VERY LIGHT ATTM AS WELL. THE MAIN SFC RIDGE IS TO THE EAST              
OF THE REGION, AND 500 MB IS STILL TO THE WEST. HOWEVER, THE NEXT               
850 MB TROUGH NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG, HAS A LLJ MAX OF 65 KNOTS                 
THE TAIL OF WHICH IS AROUND 50 KNOTS AND IS HEADED TOWARD N                     
MICHIGAN. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE.                
TODAY/TONIGHT/FRIDAY...FIRST THE FLURRIES WILL COME TO AN END AS                
THE DRY AIR IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER CONTINUES TO PLUMMET TO LESS                
THAN 30% AND THE WINDS TURN SW BY 15Z. THEN AROUND 18Z THE 850 MB               
JET CORE WILL BEGIN TO TRANSIT THE REGION. THE GFS SHOW 45KT AT                 
00Z WHILE THE NAM IS AROUND 50KT. HAVE GONE WITH THE SREF AT THE                
SFC WHICH IS SLIGHTLY LESS THAN 1/2 OF THE 850 MB WINDS AND GUSTS               
TO AROUND 45 MPH. THIS LOOKS TO BEGIN TO WIND DOWN AROUND 06Z, AS               
BOTH MODELS SLOW THE WIND DOWN TO THE 30 KNOT RANGE BY 12Z. THE                 
GALES ON THE LAKES LOOK LIKE THEY WILL PROBABLY BE END AROUND 12Z,              
BUT WILL LEAVE THE 15Z END TIME ON FRIDAY FOR SOME ERROR.                       
OTHERWISE AS THE WINDS WIND DOWN THE SW WIND WILL WARM THE REGION               
AND THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S. SO MINIMAL MELTING               
LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE.                                                            
FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES FALL OFF TO THE MID 20S OVERNIGHT. THE              
SOUNDINGS ARE SATURATED FROM THE SFC TO 900 MB, HOWEVER, THE                    
MOISTURE DOESN`T INCREASE WITH HEIGHT. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF FOG,               
BUT THIS DOESN`T LOOK LIKELY UNTIL...                                           
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES START OUT IN THE 20S, BUT RAPIDLY WARM TO               
ABOVE FREEZING BY 18Z, THE SW FLOW CONTINUES TO NOT ONLY WARM, BUT              
MOISTURE LOWER LEVELS AS THE SOUNDINGS BEGIN TO SHOW A PROFILE                  
WHERE THE MOISTURE INCREASE WITH HEIGHT. WITH ALL OF THE DRY AIR                
AT 850 MB AND UP, IT LOOKS LIKE THAT DRIZZLE BECOMES MORE AND MORE              
PREVALENT, AND I THINK THAT THE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS ARE                
BEING UNDERPLAYED AS THE SNOW BEGINS TO MELT.                                   
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...I BECOME MORE CONVINCED THAT DRIZZLE WILL               
BE THE MAIN HYDROMETEOR, AS THE DRY AIR ALOFT IN THE SOUNDINGS IS               
IMPRESSIVE, BUT THE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS CONTINUE TO SHOW               
MOISTURE INCREASING WITH HEIGHT AND THERE IS WIND SHEAR                         
(DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED) AS WELL TO HELP THE COLLISION PROCESS.                  
MONDAY AND BEYOND...IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW MUCH SNOW IS              
LEFT AROUND HERE BY TUESDAY AS THE TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE MID                 
40S. HOWEVER, RAIN LOOKS MORE LIKELY NOW BY THE END OF MONDAY AS                
THE SOUNDINGS BECOME SATURATED. BY THE END OF TUESDAY, THE FRONT                
LOOKS LIKE IT IS THROUGH AND THE PROFILES COOL AND DRY. THIS SETS               
THE STAGE FOR WHETHER THERE WILL BE SNOW ON WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY               
OF NEXT WEEK. DAY 6 MAY NEED SOME ADJUSTMENT IF THE GFS IS RIGHT                
AND DAY 7 (THURSDAY) MAY HAVE THE SNOW.                                         
LUTZ                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR              
     MIZ008-015>025.                                                            
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR              
     LMZ323-341-342-344>346.                                                    
LH...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR              
     LHZ345>349.                                                                
LS...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR              
     LSZ321-322.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
625 AM EST THU JAN 3 2008                                                       
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAFS                                           
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER             
NAMERICA WITH A RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND ROCKIES AND A TROF            
OVER THE EAST COAST. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS RIDING OVER THE WRN                 
CONUS RIDGE THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA WITH 00Z RAOBS INDICATING 12 HR              
5H PRES FALLS IN EXCESS OF 180M AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. A STRONG                 
WAA PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE PRODUCING A LARGE             
AREA OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS CNTRL CANADA INTO THE NRN PLAINS. AT             
THE SFC...A HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS FROM WESTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTH              
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE A DEEP 992 MB SFC LOW             
IS APPROACHING HUDSON BAY. THE RESULTING STRONG SRLY GRAIDENT HAS               
PRODUCED SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30KT OVER A LARGE AREA               
EARLY THIS MORNING...FROM SRN MANITOBA AND NRN ONTARIO INTO THE NRN             
PLAINS STATES. LES HAS GENERALLY DISSIPATED OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR              
PER THE MQT RADAR LOOP WITH WARMER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE             
REGION.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST ISSUE WILL BE STRONG WINDS TODAY WITH TIGHTENING PRES                 
GRADIENT BTWN DEPARTED STRONG SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE AND LOW PRES                  
TRACKING TOWARD HUDSON BAY. MODELS FORECASTING STRONG JET 65-70 KT              
CORE MOVING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON               
WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON UPSTREAM 00Z SOUNDINGS OVER THE NRN             
PLAINS AND SCNTRL CANADA. WAA PATTERN ASSOC WITH THE JET CORE WILL              
BE MOVING OVER A SHALLOW EXITING ARCTIC AIRMASS WHICH WILL INHIBIT              
MIXING AT LEAST INITIALLY TODAY. HOWEVER...MODELS SNDGS STILL PRETTY            
CONSISTENT INDICATING MIXING TO NEAR 950 MB BY LATE                             
MORNING/AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FAIRLY STRONG SRLY WIND GUSTS              
OF 40 TO 45 KT TO SFC...ESPECIALLY FOR DOWNSLOPING AREAS ALONG THE              
LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE AND EXPOSED HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.                   
ANOTHER FACTOR SUPPORTING/ENHANCED SW WINDS WILL BE THE STRONG SFC              
PRES FALLS OF NEARLY 10MB/3HR SPREADING E ACROSS ONTARIO THU AHEAD              
OF ADVANCING SFC LOW. THUS...HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL                
COUNTIES ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE MI...WHICH                  
INCLUDES ALL BUT SRN HOUGHTON...IRON...DICKINSON AND MENONIMEE. GALE            
WARNINGS ARE ALSO POSTED FOR ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR OPEN WATERS AND               
ALL OF THE NEARSHORE AREAS EXCEPT OVER HURON AND KEWEENAW BAYS AS               
MIXING WILL BE EVEN MORE VIGOROUS OVER UNSTABLE MARINE AREAS.                   
MIXING TO NEAR 950 MB YIELDED HIGH TEMPS NEAR GFS MOS GUIDANCE...MID            
20S INLAND TO UPR 20S ALONG GREAT LAKES SHORELINES.                             
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GRADIENT SLACKENS WINDS AS WINDS                     
EVENTUALLY DECOUPLE BY LATE EVENING. SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH OF A                
BOUNDARY LYR WIND (5-15 KTS) OVERNIGHT TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING            
MUCH.STUCK CLOSE TO GFS GUIDANCE MINS WITH LOWS IN MID TEENS                    
INTERIOR WEST TO UPR TEENS/LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE. WENT WITH DRY WX                
GRIDS ALL THE WAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THERE IS LITTLE AVAILABLE                 
MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING AT BEST OVER THE CWA. HIGH TEMPS WILL                 
GRADUALLY WARM ABV FREEZING BY THE WEEKEND WITH MID TO UPR 30S                  
EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE MORNING. WINDS             
MAY GUST TO 40 KT ONCE INVERSION BEGINS TO BREAK. THE STRONG                    
WINDS...ALONG WITH NEWLY FALLEN SNOW...ALLOWS FOR POTENTIAL OF                  
BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES 15Z TO 00Z. FOR THE MOST                  
PART...VIS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 5SM IN THE BLSN. NEXT SHOT AT LOWER              
CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES BELOW 5KFT.               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT DEVELOPING BTWN DEPARTING STRONG SFC HIGH PRES              
RIDGE AND LOW PRES TRACKING E TO HUDSON BAY RESULTS IN VERY STRONG              
WINDS ACROSS LK SUPERIOR NEXT 18 HR. AFTER THAT IT IS FAIRLY QUIET              
ON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS STAYING BLO 30 KT. BACK TO TODAY.            
SETUP IMPRESSIVE FOR A HIGH END GALE. AIRMASS IS NOT FULLY STABLE               
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE FALLS SPREADING ACROSS               
ONTARIO HELP TO ENHANCE S TO SW WINDS. GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS BTWN THE               
KEWEENAW AND ISLE ROYALE ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID AFTN BUT SEEMS                
TOO LOCALIZED TO GO WITH STORM WARNING. WINDS DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS             
EVENING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.                                           
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MICHIGAN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST THIS              
           EVENING FOR MIZ006-007-013-014-085.                                  
           WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING TO 5            
           PM EST/4 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ001>003-009.                  
           WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST                    
           THIS EVENING FOR MIZ004-005.                                         
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM EST THIS                            
EVENING FOR LSZ266-267.                                                         
GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING                    
FOR LSZ265.                                                                     
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ263-264.                        
GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING                    
FOR LSZ249>251.                                                                 
LAKE MICHIGAN...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST                 
FRIDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...VOSS                                                      
AVIATION/MARINE...JLA                                                           
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
1045 AM EST THU JAN 3 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE AND A COLD...DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN                 
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE CENTER OF THE LARGE HIGH DRIFTS SLOWLY                  
EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM.  BY THE START OF NEXT                   
WEEK...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 60S.                           
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
AS OF 1045 AM THURSDAY...1000-850MB THICKNESSES WERE COLD...AND                 
BOTH THE NAM AND THE RUC SHOW THESE THICKNESSES TO ONLY RISE TO                 
AROUND 1265M OR SO BY 00Z. THIS WOULD SUPPORT READINGS ONLY IN THE              
UPPER 20S. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DEGREE OF RISE UNDER FULL SUN THIS               
MORNING...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER 850MB TEMPERATURES VERSUS 12Z                     
WEDNESDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE 30S...THOUGH IT                  
WILL OFTEN FEEL LIKE IT IS IN THE 20S. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE                     
GRIDDED AND WORDED FORECAST TEMPERATURES...AND WHERE MODIFIED THE               
CHANGE WAS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO. DEW POINTS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY                
IN THE SINGLE FIGURES...LEADING TO A DRY DAY WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE              
HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 25 PERCENT.                                              
925MB WINDS FROM 15-25KT EARLY THIS MORNING...STRONGEST IN THE EAST...          
WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15KT BY 00Z. GIVEN THE NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC                 
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 MPH IN THE WEST...              
TO 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE EAST WITH A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR A GUST                  
THERE AT TIMES...SHOULD BE THE RULE. RALEIGH PROFILER SHOWED A                  
WIND AROUND 15KT JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE DURING MID-                            
MORNING...WHICH BLENDS NICELY WITH THE RANGE OF WIND SPEEDS                     
EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON.                                      
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...                             
AS OF 115 AM THURSDAY...THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES THIS FORECAST                  
SERIES COMES TONIGHT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS               
CENTERING OVER THE AREA AND MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS IN                
THE TEENS ARE LIKELY.                                                           
AIRMASS MODERATION SHOULD BEGIN WITH RIDGING ALOFT ON FRI...850                 
TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE 0C IN WSW FLOW... AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESS             
APPROACHING 1310M.  SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH CIRRUS STREAKS            
FROM THE WEST.  SUNSHINE SHOULD WARM THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES INTO              
THE MID TO UPPER 40S.                                                           
FRI NIGHT-SAT...MODELS SHOW WIDESPREAD SATURATION ABOVE THE 500 MB              
LEVEL WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORT WAVE AND DEFORMATION IN WESTERLY             
FLOW FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY.  RESULTING CIRRUS SHOULD SLIGHTLY               
REDUCE THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE WITH LOWS MAINLY MID TO UPPER              
20S AND HIGHS 50-55.  -RFG                                                      
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                
AS OF 115 AM THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST         
AND AN UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WEST DURING THE                  
WEEKEND.  THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR MASSIVE RIDGING ALONG THE EAST                
COAST WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS EXCEEDING 582 DM MON AND TUE.  BY WED...              
GFS IS SLOWER BY 12-24 HOURS FROM THE ECMWF SHOWING EASTWARD                    
PROGRESS OF A COLD FRONT BEING PUSHED BY A STRONG WAVE CURRENTLY                
EMBEDDED IN A 190KT JET SOUTHWEST OF THE ALEUTIANS.                             
SAT NIGHT-SUN...A MINOR SHORT WAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA IN                    
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT GENERATING CIRRUS AND HIGHER MID CLOUDS IN AN               
OTHERWISE STABLE DRY AIRMASS.  THE FORECAST SOUNDING SUGGESTS SOME              
OROGRAPHIC STANDING WAVE ENHANCEMENT OF HIGHER CLOUDINESS THAT COULD            
INHIBIT RADIATIONAL EFFECTS. OTHERWISE MODEL THICKNESS SUPPORTS                 
HIGHS AROUND 60 AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 30S.                              
SUN NIGHT-TUE...FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA HIGH BRINGS            
A MORE MARITIME CHARACTER TO THE AIR WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL                  
MOISTURE.  FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE PATTERN TYPE SUGGESTS                    
WIDESPREAD EARLY MORNING FOG.  THE AIRMASS GRADUALLY DESTABILIZES TO            
ALLOW SOME GROWTH OF STRATOCUMULUS TUE. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR.  LOW            
LEVEL THICKNESS REACHES THE 1360S WITH POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS REACHING             
MID 60S TO AROUND 70 AFTER MINIMUMS IN THE 40S.                                 
TUE NIGHT-WED...CLOUDINESS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASING IN CONFLUENT             
PREFRONTAL SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MINIMUMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 50              
BEFORE TRANSITIONAL TEMPERATURES WITH A CHANGE IN AIRMASS ON WED.N              
A COMPROMISE BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON              
WED. -RFG                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                      
AS OF 1045 AM THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF                 
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL. SURFACE WINDS                
WILL BE MORE GUSTY AT EASTERN TAF SITES...TOWARD KRWI AND KFAY...               
BUT ONLY TO AROUND 20KT AT BEST EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS                  
SHOULD DROP TO CALM AROUND OR NOT LONG AFTER SUNSET.                            
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGH              
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY ...THEN                
MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY. THIS OFFSHORE MOVEMENT WILL ALLOW                 
WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH... RETURNING MOISTURE TO              
THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SOME MVFR              
CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACCORDING TO SOUNDING DATA.                   
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...DJF                                                                  
NEAR TERM...DJF                                                                 
SHORT TERM...RFG                                                                
LONG TERM...RFG                                                                 
AVIATION...DJF/RHJ                                                              
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
602 AM CST THU JAN 3 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ALLOW THE WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE.                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT                                      
THE 500 HPA RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IS NOW MOVING                
INTO THE PLAINS...AND STRONG WARM ADVECTION HAS OCCURRED IN THE                 
PAST SIX OR SO HOURS WITH SOUTHERLY 925 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS 60 TO               
65 KNOTS IN SOME PLACES PER THE NAM/RUC SOUNDINGS. THIS HAS                     
ASSISTED IN NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN                
CWA THIS MORNING WITH BRIEF STINTS AT KATY AND K8D3 OF 30 TO 35                 
MPH WINDS OBSERVED. EVEN AS THE AXIS OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT PUSHES               
TO THE EAST...KABR IS STILL OBSERVED TO RECORD 25 MPH WINDS IN                  
BLOWING SNOW AT 0830Z. WITH WINDS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE                
15 KNOTS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA THROUGH THE FIRST                  
PART OF THE MORNING...EXTENDED THE BLOWING SNOW MENTION THROUGH                 
15Z IN THESE AREAS. IN ADDITION...A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS THROUGH               
12Z. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT ALL STATIONS                
ACROSS THE EAST...BUT WITH THE STRONG WINDS STILL NOT FAR ABOVE                 
THE SURFACE...30+ MPH WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE SO WILL LEAVE                    
ADVISORY RUNNING THROUGH 6AM CST.                                               
A QUIET REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM IS STILL IN STORE WITH THE                  
WARMER PACIFIC AIR STILL MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.               
NAM/RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 850 HPA TEMPERATURES RISING TO +11          
TO +13 C BY LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CWA ON THE HEELS OF THE               
STRONG WARM ADVECTION...THEN DECREASING SOMEWHAT BUT REMAINING IN               
THE +5 TO +10 C RANGE THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM. THUS...WARMER              
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE AREA THE                 
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE WARMEST DAY APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY...AS WINDS                
WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH LIMITED                          
MIXING...BUT MORE MIXING SHOULD OCCUR ON SATURDAY TO BRING DOWN                 
STRONGER WINDS...LIMITING CLOUD POTENTIAL AND INCREASING THE                    
POTENTIAL FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES. MET GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NEAR                   
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY IN THE 40S AND 50S...PARTICULARLY          
IN THE WESTERN CWA...SO THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON                
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.                                                       
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...THERE IS STILL SOME INTEREST IN FOG                    
POTENTIAL THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. 00Z NAM SOUNDINGS              
CONTINUE TO INDICATE STRONG WARM ADVECTION OVER THE SURFACE                     
LEADING TO A DEEP LAYER ABOVE FREEZING ALOFT...BUT A LARGE                      
INVERSION JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH IT               
DUE TO THE CURRENT SNOW COVER AS WELL AS MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM                
THE SOUTH. THE SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE WIDESPREAD LOW                           
STRATUS/POSSIBLE FOG UNDER THE INVERSION...WITH TEMPERATURES AT                 
THE SURFACE REMAINING RATHER COOL RELATIVE TO THE WARM AIR ALOFT.               
THE 00Z GFS IS SIMILAR IN SHOWING A VERY LARGE INVERSION...THOUGH               
IT IS NOT AS STRONG WITH THE WARM AIR ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL                       
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE COARSER RESOLUTION OF THE GFS IN THE              
BOUNDARY LAYER...NOT SURPRISED TO SEE THIS. THE NAM ALSO INDICATES              
LIGHT TO NO WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE UNDER THE INVERSION FOR MUCH                 
OF THIS 36 HOUR TIME PERIOD FROM 00Z FRIDAY TO 12Z SATURDAY...AND               
OCCASIONALLY DEPICTS LITTLE TO NO WIND ALL THE WAY UP TO 800 HPA                
AS WELL. THOUGH THE GFS HAS A BIT STRONGER WINDS...POSSIBLY DUE IN              
PART TO THE COARSER BOUNDARY LAYER RESOLUTION...THINK THAT IF THE               
INVERSION DOES SET UP AS STRONG AS BOTH MODELS SUGGEST...EVEN IF                
THE WINDS ARE A BIT STRONGER THEY MAY SIMPLY FLOW OVER THE                      
INVERSION WITH LITTLE AIR MOVEMENT AT THE SURFACE BELOW IT.                     
THUS...FEEL IT IS A GOOD IDEA TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG IN              
THE GRIDS AT THIS POINT...EVEN THOUGH EXACT TIMING IS STILL                     
RELATIVELY UNCLEAR. ANY FOG THAT WOULD FORM WOULD GREATLY                       
INFLUENCE TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS HELP MAINTAIN THE INVERSION...SO            
LOWERED HIGHS A BIT IN THE EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.                
ACROSS THE EAST ON SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE               
INTO THE 30S AND POSSIBLY 40S IN AREAS AS INCREASED MIXING                      
LEADS TO STRONGER SURFACE WINDS...PREVENTING FOG POTENTIAL AND                  
TAPPING INTO WARMER AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE.                                      
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY                                           
MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE THE INCONSISTENCY                
BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL START OFF                 
FEATURING A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE                           
COUNTRY...AND A RIDGE OVER THE EAST. THE GFS SLIDES THE TROUGH TO               
THE ROCKIES BY TUESDAY MORNING...THEN HAS IT MERGING WITH ANOTHER               
TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND BECOMING SITUATED OVER                
THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH FASTER...PUSHING THE                 
TROUGH TO THE PLAINS BY TUESDAY MORNING...THEN QUICKLY EASTWARD                 
AND NEVER MERGING WITH THE NEXT TROUGH...THOUGH THAT TROUGH DOES                
MOVE OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY.                                                 
AT THE SURFACE...GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS OF A TROUGH                  
OVER THE PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER               
THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING...AND THAT IS WHERE ANY REASONABLE                      
AGREEMENT ENDS. THE GFS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM               
EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY EVENING TO WISCONSIN BY MONDAY                          
EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION OVER THE CWA MUCH OF MONDAY. THE                   
ECMWF HAS A MUCH WEAKER FASTER MOVING LOW WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY                
OF PRECIPITATION. THE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING CONTINUES THROUGH THE               
END OF THE PERIOD AS THE ECMWF TRACKS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE                  
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THE GFS IS ABOUT 12 HOURS BEHIND. CURRENT                 
MODEL DISCREPANCIES APPEAR TO GET EVEN WORSE PAST THE END OF THE                
LONG TERM PERIOD. SO...BASICALLY CHANGED VERY LITTLE IN THE                     
EXTENDED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND                   
MONDAY. AFTER PERUSING THROUGH GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS...IT APPEARS              
THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY DECENT LAYER OF WARM AIR ALOFT THAT COULD                
RESULT IN PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AS FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY                       
NIGHT...AND HAVE SPREAD THAT CHANCE FURTHER WEST THAN THE PREVIOUS              
FORECAST INDICATED. SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATING THE COOLER AIR                    
TAKING OVER SOONER ON MONDAY...SO WENT WITH ALL SNOW IN THE NORTH               
AND A POSSIBLE MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTH. BY MONDAY                  
NIGHT...ANY CONTINUING PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL SNOW. DRY                    
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES                
IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW.                                                      
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY MILD ON SUNDAY AS WEAK WAA                    
CONTINUES AND H85 TEMPS REMAIN JUST ABOVE ZERO. THE COOLER AIR                  
BEGINS TO GET PULLED INTO THE REGION EARLY MONDAY...WITH H85 TEMPS              
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO FROM MONDAY EVENING ONWARD. WENT                
WITH A SLIGHT COOLING TREND MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THOUGH                   
TEMPS LOOK TO BE NEAR OF JUST ABOVE NORMAL.                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS                      
MORNING FROM THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD...MAINLY AFFECTING                 
KABR...KATY AND K8D3. VSBYS MAY FALL TO AROUND 2SM AT TIMES DUE TO              
BLOWING SNOW...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. THE STRONG               
WINDS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW... WILL SUBSIDE AFTER                
12Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA WITH                
SCT- BKN HIGH CLOUDS AOA 20K FEET STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION.                  
VSBYS WILL BE UNRESTRICTED.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...PARKIN                                                                 
SHORT TERM...ECKSTEIN                                                           
LONG TERM...PARKIN                                                              
AVIATION...PARKIN                                                               
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN                                                            
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
256 PM MST THU JAN 3 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)                                                            
CURRENTLY...SW FLOW ALOFT WAS EVIDENT AS PER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY               
AND RUC H5 ANALYSIS THU AFTN. SW WINDS AT THE SFC ACROSS THE                    
CWA...THOUGH NOT STRONG...REMAINED BRISK AT TIMES AND REALLY HELPED             
TO MIX AND WARM THE LOWER LEVELS. EVEN WITH THE THICK MID AND HIGH              
CLOUD LAYER OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...E PLAINS SITE THAT EXPERIENCED               
BRISK W WINDS THIS AFTN WARMED INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. OTHER             
SITES...SUCH AS KTAD OR KLAA...REPORTED CALM TO LIGHT EASTERLY                  
WINDS...AND TEMPS THERE REMAINED IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50 F.                      
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC APPROACHS THE             
PAC NW COAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS...STRENGTHENING THE SW FLOW                
ALOFT OVER THE 4 CORNERS. THIS SW FLOW IS FORECAST TO DRAW AN                   
IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RIGHT INTO THE CONTDVD...ESPECIALLY               
THE SAN JUANS...INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN ESTABLISHES ITSELF               
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND CHANGES VERY LITTLE. BOTH GFS AND NAM MODELS            
INDICATE THAT THE ONSET OF PCPN MIGHT BE DELAYED SLIGHTLY...SO                  
ADJUSTED THE POP GRIDS SO TO TRY AND ILLUSTRATE A SLOW AND GRADUAL              
INCREASE OF PCPN TONIGHT. PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD INCREASED POPS ALONG               
THE CONTDVD TO SCATTERED AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND SEE NO REASON TO                  
ADJUST THIS AS IT CARRIES THROUGH TOMORROW. FEEL THAT THERE IS A                
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME OF THE PCPN TO SPILL OVER TO THE SLV AND E               
MTS...AND EVEN THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS...BY FRI AFTN.                            
THEREFORE...PAINTED SOME ISOLATED POPS THERE TO COVER THAT                      
CHANCE...HOWEVER FEEL THAT MOST OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE               
AFFECTING THE CONTDVD. FORECAST 1 TO 2 INCHES TONIGHT FOR THE W                 
AREAS...THEN ANOTHER 2 TO 3 INCHES DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. REAL                
CHALLENGE IS GOING TO BE THE TEMPS. PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL                
CLOUD COVER...COUPLED WITH BRISK W-SW WINDS...SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS             
TONIGHT FROM DROPPING TO LOW. SO...WENT WITH MINS IN THE TEENS TO               
LOWER 20S FOR THE PLAINS...AND EVEN KEPT KALS ON THE POSITIVE SIDE              
OF ZERO. AS FOR MAX TEMPS FRI...700 AND 850 MB TEMP CHARTS INDICATE             
A SLIGHT COOLING TOMORROW WHICH MIGHT BE A REFLECTION OF MORE CLOUD             
COVER AND LESS WIND EXPECTED. LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FORECAST                
TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW WHAT WERE REALIZED TODAY...WHICH SEEMS                     
REASONABLE...SO WENT WITH A GFS/NAM BLEND. MOORE                                
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)                                                 
...LONG DURATION MAJOR WINTER STORM EVENT FOR THE WESTERN UNITED                
   STATES...                                                                    
NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THINKING REGARDING WELL ADVERTISED WINTER                
STORM EVENT FOR THE WESTERN CONUS. SLOW MOVING LONG WAVE TROUGH WITH            
PLENTY OF MOISTURE...5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO            
NATL CENTERS...WILL BE COMING ONSHORE TOMORROW AND THE BRUNT OF IT              
SHOULD BE CROSSING OUR AREA DURING THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME. IN             
THE MEANTIME...I EXPECT SOME SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SW                      
MTNS...FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ATTM...I AM NOT OVERLY EXCITED ON            
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS THE LAPSE RATES ARE PAULTRY AT BEST...HOWEVER               
THERE IS PRETTY GOOD UPSLOPE WITH THE MODERATES SW 700 MB FLOW                  
IMPINGING ON THE SW MTNS.                                                       
THE SHOW SHOULD REALLY START TO PICK UP IN EARNEST BY SAT NITE AND              
INTO SUNDAY GOING INTO MONDAY. LAPSE RATES IMPROVE DRAMATICALLY AS              
WE GO INTO SAT NITE/SUNDAY AND THE 700 MB FLOW ONLY INCREASES MORE.             
THIS SHOULD BRING HEAVY SNOWS INTO THE SW MTNS DURING THE ABOVE                 
MENTIONED TIME FRAME. QPF OFF THE GUIDANCE WAS PRETTY INCREDIBLE (1"            
IN 6 HRS) DURING SUNDAY. ALTHUGH THIS IS POSSIBLE...I DID CUT BACK              
QUITE A BIT FROM THESE VALUES. NO MATTER WHAT...WE WILL LIKELY SEE              
MANY FEET OF SNOW OVER THE SW MTNS BY LATE MONDAY.                              
AS FOR THE C MTNS...THIS AREA WILL LIKELY SEE SNOW...BUT THE                    
HEAVIEST MAY NOT GET INTO THIS REGION UNTIL THE 700 MB FLOW SHIFTS              
TO A MORE W AND THEN NW DIRECTION. THIS WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL             
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE TROUGH GOES BY.                                  
FOR THE REST OF THE REGION BETWEEN LATE FRI INTO SUNDAY...WARM AND              
WINDY. HI TEMPS SAT WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S ON THE PLAINS. WITH              
ALL OF THE WIND...I EVEN EXPECT ALAMOSA...THE SAN LUIS VALLEY (SLV)             
TO FINALLY BREAK OUT OF THE INVERSION AND HAVE TEMPS IN THE 30S BOTH            
DAYS. WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE THIS WEEKEND WITH THE WORST OF                
IT OVER AND E OF THE S MTNS ON SAT. EXPECT WINDS IN THE 25-35 MPH               
RANGE WITH GUSTS OVER 50 IN WIND PRONE LOCATIONS. MAY SEE SOME OF               
THESE WINDS GET OUT ONTO THE E PLAINS. WINDS WILL KEEP MINS UP AT               
NIGHT AND HAVE KEPT TEMPS UP IN THE "BANANA BELT" (AREAS                        
IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO THE MTNS FACING THE PLAINS) REGION OF OUR               
FCST AREA.                                                                      
BY MONDAY...THE PAC FRONT MOVES ACROSS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A                     
BRIEF PERIOD OF UPSLOP OVER THE E PLAINS...BUT I REALLY DO NOT                  
EXPECT MUCH OF ANY PRECIP...AND HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 10% RANGE FOR             
THE PLAINS. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S.                                       
BEYOND THIS DATE...LONG RANGE GUIDANCE GOES INTO PRETTY BIG                     
DISAGREEMENT. FOR NOW I BASE THE REST OF THE DISCUSSION ON THE EC               
MODEL AS GFS SEEMS TO BE HAVING RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY PROBLEMS.                 
WE SHOULD SEE A BIT OF A REPRIEVE ON TUESDAY OVER MOST OF THE REGION            
AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS OVER AREA. ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE            
C MTNS WHERE NW FLOW WILL KEEP THE FLAKES A FLYIN`.                             
BY TUESDAY...ANOTHER WX SYSTEM IN THE NW FLOW MOVES INTO THE AREA.              
GIVEN THE FLOW (W TO NW) AND THE LAPSE RATES...THE C MTNS SHOULD SEE            
THE BRUNT OF THE SNOW WITH THIS SYTEM. THIS SYSTEM...AS HAVE MANY               
OTHERS THIS WINTER SEASON...WILL BE PROGRESSIVE SO THE CHANCES OF               
PRECIP ON THE PLAINS SHOULD BE LOW.                                             
ANOTHER WEAK RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATER WED AND THU...AND              
THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM IS FCST TO AFFECT THE AREA LATER FRIDAY AND INTO            
THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM IS FCST TO BE A BIT STRONGER AND SLOWER ON             
THE NEW 12Z EC...BUT I WILL BELIEVE IT WHEN I SEE IT. /HODANISH                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR TAF SITES                           
THE NEXT 24 HRS...THOUGH THERE WILL BE A GENERAL LOWERING OF MID AND            
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OUT OF THE W TO SW...AND                  
ISOLATED SNOW WILL BE ENCROACHING UPON KALS BY MIDDAY TOMORROW.                 
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
27/34                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
425 PM EST THU JAN 3 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
IR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING OFF              
THE EAST COAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW                 
ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. ANOTHER TROUGH IS CLOSE TO MOVING             
ONSHORE FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE                  
DOMINATES MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...WITH LOW PRESSURE                 
PUSHING EAST OVER HUDSON BAY. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BROUGHT               
INCREASED WINDS TO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS DID NOT GET QUITE            
AS HIGH AS EXPECTED. MARINE PLATFORMS AND COASTAL LOCATIONS REPORTED            
HIGHER WIND SPEEDS...WITH 36 KT GUST AT KIWD...53 KT GUSTS AT ROCK              
OF AGES...AND 47 KNOTS AT PASSAGE ISLAND. WIND SPEEDS HAVE PICKED UP            
ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE OVER THE LAST 3 HOURS...WITH                  
MULTIPLE LOCATIONS REPORTING 30 TO 35 KNOT GUSTS.                               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRI)...                                                
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE             
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES EAST OF THE               
AREA. WENT WITH LOWER MOS GUIDANCE TONIGHT AS TEMPS DROPPED OFF                 
QUITE A BIT LAST NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WINDS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10            
MPH RANGE OVERNIGHT. DID NOT PUT ANY FOG IN THE FORECAST BECAUSE THE            
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...OTHERWISE MIGHT HAVE                  
EXPECTED FOG TO DEVELOP OVER LOCATIONS WITH THE FRESHEST SNOW COVER.            
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE AREA TOMORROW...                 
ALTHOUGH LITTLE VERTICAL MOTION SHOULD PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION                
FROM OCCURRING. SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARMER                          
TEMPERATURES...NEAR 30 DEGREES ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN.                           
.LONG TERM (FRI NIGHT THRU THU)...                                              
MAIN FCST ISSUE IS WHEN WILL STRATUS AND POSSIBLE FOG SETTLE OVER               
THE AREA AS PERSISTENT S TO SW FLOW WAA CONTINUES. GFS/NAM ARE IN               
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING ONLY SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER THE AREA FRI NIGHT            
THRU SUN MORNING...AND WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING DUE TO                 
UPPER JET WELL W OF HERE EXTENDING FROM THE SW CONUS TO THE NRN                 
PLAINS...MEASURABLE PCPN SEEMS UNLIKELY. THE NAM/GFS HOWEVER APPEAR             
MUCH TOO QUICK WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTENING THEY INDICATE FOR                  
TONIGHT AND FRI HERE. SFC DWPTS ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE SRN PLAINS              
ARE NO HIGHER THAN 15 TO 20F THIS AFTN. MELTING SNOW COVER ACROSS               
CNTRL PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO LEAD TO INCREASING SFC DWPTS WITH                    
TIME...AND FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO WHICH IS NOW DEVELOPING INTO             
TX WILL LEAD TO A STRONG INCREASE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NWD. THIS               
MOISTURE OVERRIDING/LIFTING OVER THE NEAR SFC COOL AIR/SNOW COVER               
WILL RESULT IN A RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS. BASED ON THE                     
NAM/GFS...IT PROBABLY WON`T BE UNTIL FRI NIGHT THAT A GOOD PUSH OF              
HIGHER DWPTS AT LEAST INTO THE 30S SURGES N INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS               
TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SO THAT IS THE TIME THAT RAPID             
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD GET UNDERWAY. WOULD EXPECT STRATUS TO                
REACH THE FCST AREA LATE FRI NIGHT BUT PROBABLY MORE LIKELY SAT                 
MORNING. ONCE THE STRATUS ARRIVES IT SHOULD PERSIST THRU AT LEAST               
SUN ALONG WITH SOME FOG AS SFC DWPTS CONTINUE TO RISE. LOW-LEVEL                
MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT AS VIEWED ON THE 280K SFC MAY BE SUFFICIENT             
FOR -DZ SAT NIGHT/SUN. REMOVED ANY MENTION OF -RA AS DEEP MOISTURE              
IS LACKING. MAX/MIN TEMPS WILL BE HIGHER EACH DAY AS AIRMASS                    
CONTINUES TO WARM. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MOST AFFECTED AS INCREASINGLY              
MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND STRATUS STRONGLY LIMIT TEMP FALLS AT                
NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD NOT FALL BACK BLO FREEZING SAT NIGHT AND SUN                
NIGHT.                                                                          
MON THRU THU...CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME IS VERY LOW AS                 
THERE HAS BEEN POOR RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY ON PROGRESSION/STRENGTH OF            
SHORTWAVES MOVING EWD FROM THE MEAN W COAST TROF WHICH WILL BE                  
DRIFTING TOWARD THE CNTRL CONUS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IN PAST               
DAYS...THERE WAS A SIGNAL FOR A STRONG LOW PRES SYSTEM LIFTING NE               
AND PASSING W OF UPPER MI...PROVIDING FOR UNSEASONABLE WARMTH AND               
POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT RAIN HERE. OVERALL MODEL TREND RECENTLY HAS                
BEEN TO DOWNPLAY SIGNIFICANT SFC DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...               
BEING SEVERAL DAYS OUT INTO THE MODEL RUNS...A STRONG SYSTEM CANNOT             
BE DISCOUNTED SINCE THERE HAVE BEEN SO MANY MODEL RUNS THAT HAVE                
SHOWED IT IN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS (INCLUDING 12Z GFS/ECMWF FOR                 
TUE). FOR THE TIME BEING...THIS FCST ISSUANCE WILL LEAN TOWARD HPC              
GUIDANCE FOR POSITION OF FRONTS/SFC WAVES...BUT IT WILL STILL RETAIN            
MUCH OF THE PREVIOUS FCST IDEAS WHICH IS ALWAYS DESIREABLE WHEN                 
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MODEL UNCERTAINTY. AFTER UNSEASONABLE WARMTH              
LATE IN THE WEEKEND...TEMPS SHOULD GRADUALLY TREND DOWNWARD DURING              
THIS PERIOD...BUT OBVIOUSLY ANY SIGNIFICANT SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT            
COULD DRASTICALLY ALTER THAT PLAN. EVEN WITH A GRADUAL COOLING                  
TREND...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD. AS FOR             
PCPN...PLAN TO CARRY AT LEAST LOW CHC POPS THRU THE ENTIRE FCST                 
PERIOD GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE SLOWLY EWD MOVING FRONTAL                     
BOUNDARY/SFC WAVES WILL BE LOCATED AS MEAN TROF DRIFTS TOWARD THE               
CNTRL CONUS. THERE COULD BE ONE OR MORE PERIODS OF SIGNIFICANT PCPN             
DEPENDING ON PROGRESSION OF SHORTWAVES. OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS              
OF MODEL RUNS...IT WOULD APPEAR MON NIGHT/TUE MAY HAVE THE BEST                 
OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN. WILL TRANSITION PTYPE TO RAIN/SNOW TUE NIGHT              
AND TO ONLY SNOW FOR WED/THU.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH 40 KT GUSTS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE             
DAY...WITH REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES DUE TO BLOWING SNOW. FOR THE               
MOST PART...VIS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 5SM IN THE BLSN. NEXT SHOT AT               
LOWER CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES BELOW               
5KFT. DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS DECK WITH INCOMING MOISTURE AND WINDS              
REMAINING AROUND 10 KT SHOULD PREVENT A RADIATION FOG EVENT OVER THE            
FRESH SNOWPACK. CIG AT KCMX WILL LIKELY BE A TOUCH LOWER THAN KSAW              
DUE TO ADDITIONAL MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION FROM MARINE LAYER AND                   
GREATER RECENT SNOWFALL.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT              
RELAXES BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND LOW PRESSURE               
OVER HUDSON BAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT OUT OF THE SOUTH LATE                 
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH WINDS UP TO 30 KT ON THE EASTERN HALF OF             
THE LAKE. AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS               
THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON A LOW PRES               
SYSTEM THAT MAY TRACK INTO THE UPPER LAKES TUE. IF SYSTEM                       
DEVELOPS...WINDS COULD BE QUITE A BIT HIGHER THAN REFLECTED IN THIS             
FCST ISSUANCE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
 MICHIGAN...                                                                    
  WIND ADVY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING MIZ005>007-013-014-085.                 
 LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                               
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ240>243-248.                  
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING LSZ244-245-249>251-265.              
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING LSZ263-264-266-267.                  
 LAKE MICHIGAN...                                                               
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY LMZ221-248-250.                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...TAG                                                                
LONG TERM...ROLFSON                                                             
AVIATION...TAG                                                                  
MARINE...TAG                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
335 PM EST THU JAN 3 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE/RUC ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON REVEALING              
MID LEVEL RIDGING NOW PUSHING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WINDS               
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS RIDGE HAVE INCREASED DRAMATICALLY OVER                 
THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS BECOMING MORE COMMON.                 
CLOUDY SKIES HAVE ALSO CONTINUED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.                   
FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT REVOLVE AROUND WINDS AND CLOUD                    
COVER.                                                                          
TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER                       
MICHIGAN. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE LAKE                 
MICHIGAN SHORELINE THIS EVENING WITH WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER OVER              
THE LAKE AROUND 40 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE GUSTY EVERYWHERE                  
TONIGHT...IT DOES NOT APPEAR WE WILL REACH WIND ADVISORY                        
THRESHOLDS INLAND AWAY FROM THE LAKE. THUS...WIND ADVISORIES WILL               
ONLY REMAIN FOR AREAS ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. AS FOR                 
CLOUD COVER...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT ON KEEPING A 2-3KFT INVERSION               
AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT...TRAPPING THE MOISTURE OVER NORTHERN                  
MICHIGAN. THUS...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE COMMON...AND WITH THE              
WINDS...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY STEADY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO              
LOWER 20S TONIGHT.                                                              
TOMORROW...WILL BE A QUIETER DAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL                    
CONTINUE...BUT WILL BE MUCH WEAKER. CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST IN                 
THE MORNING...THEN GIVE WAY TO SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE BY MID                     
AFTERNOON. WITH THE HELP OF LATE DAY WARM AIR ADVECTION...                      
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON.                   
KAS                                                                             
LATER PERIODS...BIG WARM-UP COMING. DEEP SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE FROM             
NOW UNTIL THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR             
THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED CHANCES OF FOG/DRIZZLE/STRATUS.             
MODELS...NO BIG ISSUES NOTED. BOTH HANDLE THE ONE WEAKNESS THAT                 
MOVES THRU THE UPPER RIDGE LATE SATURDAY SIMILARLY.                             
FRIDAY NIGHT...CIRRUS SHIELD SHOULD GRADUALLY THIN OUT AS SHORTWAVE             
RIDGE AXIS SLIDES IN. BUT...STILL AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE                
TRAPPED BENEATH 900MB. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE ASSISTED BY SNOWMELT               
FROM SATURDAY. DOWNWIND OF LAKE MI...AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN                
AREAS...LOW CLOUDS WILL MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AT LEAST...AND LIKELY               
REFORM IF THERE IS ANY MIXING OUT ON SATURDAY. NE LOWER MI...WITH               
DOWNSLOPING SW LOW LEVEL WINDS...WILL SEE LESS STRATUS/STRATOCU. MIN            
TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE GUIDANCE AND VERY EARLY ON...WITH RISING TEMPS              
OVERNIGHT.                                                                      
SATURDAY...LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO MOISTEN IN S TO SW FLOW BELOW                 
850MB. MOIST LAYER RISES UP TO 875MB/4K FEET. THIS WILL MAKE LOW                
CLOUD COVER PREVALENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND INTRODUCE A                
DRIZZLE THREAT. SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING                
BEFORE TEMPS EMPHATICALLY WARM ABOVE FREEZING. WITH THE WARMER TEMPS            
AND ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT MOISTURE...SOME FOG WILL DEVELOP...                     
ESPECIALLY IN THE PM AS SURFACE DEW POINTS POKE UP TO AROUND                    
FREEZING. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.                   
SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY...MORE OF THE SAME. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...             
ENHANCED BY SNOWMELT HERE AND UPSTREAM...WILL MAINTAIN STRATUS/                 
FOG/DRIZZLE THRU THESE PERIODS. NAM/GFS DO NOT HAVE ANY SORT OF                 
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT...THANKS TO THE STRONG RIDGING                 
ALOFT. SO DON/T SEE ANY REAL CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP. WILL GO               
ABOVE GUIDANCE MIN TEMPS...AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE MAX              
TEMPS.                                                                          
REST OF THE FORECAST...DEEP SW FLOW WILL PROVIDE UNSEASONABLY WARM              
WX EARLY ON. POPS WILL FINALLY INCREASE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A               
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS HPC NOTES...THE MODELS HAVE             
ACTUALLY DIVERGED ON TIMING THIS FRONT THRU THE REGION. THE CURRENT             
HPC FORECAST FOLLOWS A LARGER CLUSTER OF MODELS (ECMWF AND NA                   
ENSEMBLE MEANS) THAT MAINTAINS CONTINUITY FROM EARLIER PROGS. THAT              
SEEMS A GOOD WAY TO GO.                                                         
WITH THAT IN MIND...THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY HANG UP OVER OUR                 
HEADS WHILE A COUPLE OF WAVES MOVE UP ALONG IT FROM MONDAY INTO                 
EARLY WED. WILL KICK POPS UP TO LIKELY (ALL RAIN) MONDAY THRU                   
TUESDAY. AS THE FRONT GOES THRU TUESDAY NIGHT/WED...RAIN WILL MIX               
WITH AND TURN TO SNOW. AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL OBVIOUSLY BE               
COOLER...BUT OF PACIFIC ORIGIN AND STILL WARMER THAN NORMAL. ANOTHER            
SYSTEM PASSING JUST TO OUR SOUTH WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SYNOPTIC             
SNOW INTO THURSDAY.                                                             
ZOLTOWSKI                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION... /ISSUED 1232 PM EST THU JAN 3 2008/                                
MVFR/LOW END VFR STRATO CU DECK SHOULD BEGIN TO SCOUR OUT SOME                  
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR AND WARMING MID LEVELS HELP TAME                
THE OVER- WATER INSTABILITY. BIGGER STORY TODAY THROUGH THIS                    
EVENING WILL BE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS...GUSTING UPWARDS OF 30                  
KNOTS...AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES.                  
WHILE WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT...MODEL CROSS SECTION                    
MOISTURE PROGS INDICATE THE RETURN OF MVFR OVERCAST...WHICH SHOULD              
CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.                                              
MSB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ015-016-019-020-025.            
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-344>346.            
LH...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ345>349.                        
LS...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ321-322.                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1232 PM EST THU JAN 3 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...MVFR/LOW END VFR STRATO CU DECK SHOULD BEGIN TO SCOUR               
OUT SOME LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR AND WARMING MID LEVELS HELP            
TAME THE OVER-WATER INSTABILITY. BIGGER STORY TODAY THROUGH THIS                
EVENING WILL BE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS...GUSTING UPWARDS OF 30                  
KNOTS...AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES. WHILE            
WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT...MODEL CROSS SECTION MOISTURE                 
PROGS INDICATE THE RETURN OF MVFR OVERCAST...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE              
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.                                                       
MSB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...ISSUED 1020 AM                                                        
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING REVEALS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS               
CENTERED ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER THE NORTH-SOUTH AXIS OF THE EASTERN               
SHORE OF LAKE MICHIGAN. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE STARTING TO                
TURN SOUTHERLY NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF             
THIS AXIS. THE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM OVERNIGHT HAS                
DWINDLED TO NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES...AFFECTING AREAS ALONG THE              
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE...INTO AREAS AROUND THE STRAITS. A SECONDARY            
AREA OF FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IS MOVING NORTHEAST                 
ACROSS IN THE VICINITY OF GRAND RAPIDS. HOWEVER...LAST FEW RADAR                
SCANS HAS SHOWN A WEAKENING TREND. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE               
CASE AS IT LOSES ANY HELP FROM UPSLOPE FLOW. THE NAM AND GFS KEEP               
ENOUGH SHALLOW INSTABILITY AROUND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TO             
KEEP INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 3KFT AROUND LAKE MICHIGAN. THUS...SOME            
SCATTERED FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON                 
HOURS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE SHORELINE...STRETCHING NORTHWARD INTO             
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. FINALLY...BY MID TO LATE                                
AFTERNOON...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL TAKE OVER...AND WE SHOULD JUST BE            
LEFT WITH SOME VERY SHALLOW LAKE CLOUDS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN                  
SHORELINE.                                                                      
IN THE MEANTIME...MID LEVEL CLOUDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE                
AXIS ARE ALREADY INVADING NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING AND WILL               
OVERTAKE THE AREA BY MIDDAY. THUS...WILL BUMP UP SKY COVER A BIT TO             
REFLECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS VERY                
LITTLE SUN WILL BE SEEN. IN ASSOCIATION WITH INCREASING CLOUD                   
COVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE BUMPED DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN             
MOST PLACES. WE SHOULD STILL SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE                    
LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 20S NEAR THE LAKE                 
MICHIGAN SHORELINE. OVERALL...FAIRLY CLOSE TO SEASONAL HIGH                     
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY JANUARY.                                                 
NOW TAKING A LOOK AT WINDS. THE MIXED LAYER OFF THE 12Z MODELS THIS             
MORNING STILL CONTAIN 40 TO 45 KNOT WINDS. WINDS DROP OFF AS YOU                
HEAD FURTHER SOUTH...SO WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY AS IT APPEARS. GALES             
STILL LOOK GOOD AS WELL...SO NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR ANY OF THE                  
HEADLINES.                                                                      
WILL MAKE A MENTION OF PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IN THE AREAS WHICH SAW 1             
TO 3 INCHES OF VERY LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW LAST NIGHT...WHICH INCLUDES               
NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN...MAINLY NORTH OF M-72...AND ACROSS EASTERN            
UPPER MICHIGAN. THE NATURE OF THE SNOW WILL ALLOW IT TO BLOW AROUND             
THIS AFTERNOON.                                                                 
KAS                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM EST THU JAN 3 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...1000-850 MB WIND RIDGE AXIS IS NOW THROUGH MOST OF                 
N LOWER IS BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS PRESENCE KNOWN WITH THE SNOW BANDS.            
WHILE MAINTAINING SOME NW FLOW CHARACTERISTICS, THE SNOW BANDS ARE              
BEGINNING TO MOVE TO THE NE PER THE APX 88D RADAR. MOST OF THE                  
SNOW IS VERY LIGHT ATTM AS WELL. THE MAIN SFC RIDGE IS TO THE EAST              
OF THE REGION, AND 500 MB IS STILL TO THE WEST. HOWEVER, THE NEXT               
850 MB TROUGH NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG, HAS A LLJ MAX OF 65 KNOTS                 
THE TAIL OF WHICH IS AROUND 50 KNOTS AND IS HEADED TOWARD N                     
MICHIGAN. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE.                
TODAY/TONIGHT/FRIDAY...FIRST THE FLURRIES WILL COME TO AN END AS                
THE DRY AIR IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER CONTINUES TO PLUMMET TO LESS                
THAN 30% AND THE WINDS TURN SW BY 15Z. THEN AROUND 18Z THE 850 MB               
JET CORE WILL BEGIN TO TRANSIT THE REGION. THE GFS SHOW 45KT AT                 
00Z WHILE THE NAM IS AROUND 50KT. HAVE GONE WITH THE SREF AT THE                
SFC WHICH IS SLIGHTLY LESS THAN 1/2 OF THE 850 MB WINDS AND GUSTS               
TO AROUND 45 MPH. THIS LOOKS TO BEGIN TO WIND DOWN AROUND 06Z, AS               
BOTH MODELS SLOW THE WIND DOWN TO THE 30 KNOT RANGE BY 12Z. THE                 
GALES ON THE LAKES LOOK LIKE THEY WILL PROBABLY BE END AROUND 12Z,              
BUT WILL LEAVE THE 15Z END TIME ON FRIDAY FOR SOME ERROR.                       
OTHERWISE AS THE WINDS WIND DOWN THE SW WIND WILL WARM THE REGION               
AND THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S. SO MINIMAL MELTING               
LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE.                                                            
FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES FALL OFF TO THE MID 20S OVERNIGHT. THE              
SOUNDINGS ARE SATURATED FROM THE SFC TO 900 MB, HOWEVER, THE                    
MOISTURE DOESN`T INCREASE WITH HEIGHT. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF FOG,               
BUT THIS DOESN`T LOOK LIKELY UNTIL...                                           
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES START OUT IN THE 20S, BUT RAPIDLY WARM TO               
ABOVE FREEZING BY 18Z, THE SW FLOW CONTINUES TO NOT ONLY WARM, BUT              
MOISTURE LOWER LEVELS AS THE SOUNDINGS BEGIN TO SHOW A PROFILE                  
WHERE THE MOISTURE INCREASE WITH HEIGHT. WITH ALL OF THE DRY AIR                
AT 850 MB AND UP, IT LOOKS LIKE THAT DRIZZLE BECOMES MORE AND MORE              
PREVALENT, AND I THINK THAT THE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS ARE                
BEING UNDERPLAYED AS THE SNOW BEGINS TO MELT.                                   
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...I BECOME MORE CONVINCED THAT DRIZZLE WILL               
BE THE MAIN HYDROMETEOR, AS THE DRY AIR ALOFT IN THE SOUNDINGS IS               
IMPRESSIVE, BUT THE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS CONTINUE TO SHOW               
MOISTURE INCREASING WITH HEIGHT AND THERE IS WIND SHEAR                         
(DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED) AS WELL TO HELP THE COLLISION PROCESS.                  
MONDAY AND BEYOND...IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW MUCH SNOW IS              
LEFT AROUND HERE BY TUESDAY AS THE TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE MID                 
40S. HOWEVER, RAIN LOOKS MORE LIKELY NOW BY THE END OF MONDAY AS                
THE SOUNDINGS BECOME SATURATED. BY THE END OF TUESDAY, THE FRONT                
LOOKS LIKE IT IS THROUGH AND THE PROFILES COOL AND DRY. THIS SETS               
THE STAGE FOR WHETHER THERE WILL BE SNOW ON WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY               
OF NEXT WEEK. DAY 6 MAY NEED SOME ADJUSTMENT IF THE GFS IS RIGHT                
AND DAY 7 (THURSDAY) MAY HAVE THE SNOW.                                         
LUTZ                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR              
     MIZ008-015>025.                                                            
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR              
     LMZ323-341-342-344>346.                                                    
LH...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR              
     LHZ345>349.                                                                
LS...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR              
     LSZ321-322.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1215 PM EST THU JAN 3 2008                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAFS                                           
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER             
NAMERICA WITH A RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND ROCKIES AND A TROF            
OVER THE EAST COAST. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS RIDING OVER THE WRN                 
CONUS RIDGE THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA WITH 00Z RAOBS INDICATING 12 HR              
5H PRES FALLS IN EXCESS OF 180M AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. A STRONG                 
WAA PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE PRODUCING A LARGE             
AREA OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS CNTRL CANADA INTO THE NRN PLAINS. AT             
THE SFC...A HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS FROM WESTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTH              
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE A DEEP 992 MB SFC LOW             
IS APPROACHING HUDSON BAY. THE RESULTING STRONG SRLY GRAIDENT HAS               
PRODUCED SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30KT OVER A LARGE AREA               
EARLY THIS MORNING...FROM SRN MANITOBA AND NRN ONTARIO INTO THE NRN             
PLAINS STATES. LES HAS GENERALLY DISSIPATED OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR              
PER THE MQT RADAR LOOP WITH WARMER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE             
REGION.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST ISSUE WILL BE STRONG WINDS TODAY WITH TIGHTENING PRES                 
GRADIENT BTWN DEPARTED STRONG SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE AND LOW PRES                  
TRACKING TOWARD HUDSON BAY. MODELS FORECASTING STRONG JET 65-70 KT              
CORE MOVING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON               
WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON UPSTREAM 00Z SOUNDINGS OVER THE NRN             
PLAINS AND SCNTRL CANADA. WAA PATTERN ASSOC WITH THE JET CORE WILL              
BE MOVING OVER A SHALLOW EXITING ARCTIC AIRMASS WHICH WILL INHIBIT              
MIXING AT LEAST INITIALLY TODAY. HOWEVER...MODELS SNDGS STILL PRETTY            
CONSISTENT INDICATING MIXING TO NEAR 950 MB BY LATE                             
MORNING/AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FAIRLY STRONG SRLY WIND GUSTS              
OF 40 TO 45 KT TO SFC...ESPECIALLY FOR DOWNSLOPING AREAS ALONG THE              
LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE AND EXPOSED HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.                   
ANOTHER FACTOR SUPPORTING/ENHANCED SW WINDS WILL BE THE STRONG SFC              
PRES FALLS OF NEARLY 10MB/3HR SPREADING E ACROSS ONTARIO THU AHEAD              
OF ADVANCING SFC LOW. THUS...HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL                
COUNTIES ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE MI...WHICH                  
INCLUDES ALL BUT SRN HOUGHTON...IRON...DICKINSON AND MENONIMEE. GALE            
WARNINGS ARE ALSO POSTED FOR ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR OPEN WATERS AND               
ALL OF THE NEARSHORE AREAS EXCEPT OVER HURON AND KEWEENAW BAYS AS               
MIXING WILL BE EVEN MORE VIGOROUS OVER UNSTABLE MARINE AREAS.                   
MIXING TO NEAR 950 MB YIELDED HIGH TEMPS NEAR GFS MOS GUIDANCE...MID            
20S INLAND TO UPR 20S ALONG GREAT LAKES SHORELINES.                             
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GRADIENT SLACKENS WINDS AS WINDS                     
EVENTUALLY DECOUPLE BY LATE EVENING. SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH OF A                
BOUNDARY LYR WIND (5-15 KTS) OVERNIGHT TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING            
MUCH.STUCK CLOSE TO GFS GUIDANCE MINS WITH LOWS IN MID TEENS                    
INTERIOR WEST TO UPR TEENS/LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE. WENT WITH DRY WX                
GRIDS ALL THE WAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THERE IS LITTLE AVAILABLE                 
MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING AT BEST OVER THE CWA. HIGH TEMPS WILL                 
GRADUALLY WARM ABV FREEZING BY THE WEEKEND WITH MID TO UPR 30S                  
EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH 40 KT GUSTS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE             
DAY...WITH REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES DUE TO BLOWING SNOW. FOR THE               
MOST PART...VIS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 5SM IN THE BLSN. NEXT SHOT AT               
LOWER CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES BELOW               
5KFT. DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS DECK WITH INCOMING MOISTURE AND WINDS              
REMAINING AROUND 10 KT SHOULD PREVENT A RADIATION FOG EVENT OVER THE            
FRESH SNOWPACK. CIG AT KCMX WILL LIKELY BE A TOUCH LOWER THAN KSAW              
DUE TO ADDITIONAL MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION FROM MARINE LAYER AND                   
GREATER RECENT SNOWFALL.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT DEVELOPING BTWN DEPARTING STRONG SFC HIGH PRES              
RIDGE AND LOW PRES TRACKING E TO HUDSON BAY RESULTS IN VERY STRONG              
WINDS ACROSS LK SUPERIOR NEXT 18 HR. AFTER THAT IT IS FAIRLY QUIET              
ON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS STAYING BLO 30 KT. BACK TO TODAY.            
SETUP IMPRESSIVE FOR A HIGH END GALE. AIRMASS IS NOT FULLY STABLE               
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE FALLS SPREADING ACROSS               
ONTARIO HELP TO ENHANCE S TO SW WINDS. GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS BTWN THE               
KEWEENAW AND ISLE ROYALE ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID AFTN BUT SEEMS                
TOO LOCALIZED TO GO WITH STORM WARNING. WINDS DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS             
EVENING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.                                           
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MICHIGAN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST THIS              
           EVENING FOR MIZ006-007-013-014-085.                                  
           WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING TO 5            
           PM EST/4 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ001>003-009.                  
           WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST                    
           THIS EVENING FOR MIZ004-005.                                         
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM EST THIS                            
EVENING FOR LSZ266-267.                                                         
GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING                    
FOR LSZ265.                                                                     
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ263-264.                        
GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING                    
FOR LSZ249>251.                                                                 
LAKE MICHIGAN...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST                 
FRIDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...VOSS                                                      
MARINE...JLA                                                                    
AVIATION...TAG                                                                  
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
331 PM CST THU JAN 3 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING                                            
MAIN FOCUS FOR PERIOD...EFFECTS OF WAA AND MELTING SNOW PACK                    
ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY TONIGHT. UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVERHEAD WITH              
SYSTEM DEPARTING THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES. THIS ALLOWED FOR SOUTHWEST              
WAA AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM WEST RIVER 40S TO LOW 20S OVER THE            
EASTERN SD SNOW PACK. MORE IMPORTANTLY...DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN                  
INTO THE UPPER TEENS. WINDS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AS CANADIAN SYSTEM              
MOVES EAST...ALLOWING MOISTURE FROM MELTING SNOW PACK TO REMAIN.                
WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES...AND LOW LEVEL                 
MOISTURE...FOG FORMATION IS A NEAR CERTAINTY. GFS/NAM/RUC ALL INDICATE NEAR     
SURFACE SATURATION AFTER 00Z. NEXT ISSUE IS DURATION/EVOLUTION                  
OF FOG. IT SHOULD BE NEAR IMPOSSIBLE TO ERODE UNDER LIGHT                       
WINDS...LOW ANGLE SUNSHINE...AND A NEARLY +10C INVERSION OVERHEAD.              
AGAIN...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT KEEPING SHALLOW CLOUD/FOG LAYER                 
THROUGH SATURDAY AT WHICH POINT STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW                
AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM WILL AID IN MIXING MOISTURE OUT OF THE JAMES               
VALLEY. AS FOR OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE                
SOME TRANSITORY FOG FORMATION IN VALLEY/DRAWS...MIXING OUT EASILY               
DUE TO WARMER TEMPERATURES.                                                     
TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD WILL VARY WIDELY WITH WARMER READINGS                  
WEST RIVER...UNDER +5 TO +7C H7/H85 LAYER INVERSION...WHILE                     
TEMPERATURE RANGE IN THE JAMES VALLEY WILL BE SEVERELY LIMITED                  
WHILE FOG/STRATUS PERSISTS. SHOULD SEE A DRASTIC RISE IN                        
TEMPERATURES FROM THE JAMES VALLEY EAST SATURDAY AS UPPER TROUGH                
MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW                           
STRENGTHENS...ALLOWING US TO REALIZE THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES                  
ALOFT.   WILL KEEP FORECAST PERIOD DRY DESPITE A STRONG BAROCLINIC              
FLOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY...MAINLY DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE                
H7/H85 LAYER.                                                                   
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY                                            
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN SOME DISARRAY THIS TIME SO CONFIDENCE                
IS LOW. 06Z GFS MODEL RUN SHOWED A STRENGTHENING TROUGH IN THE                  
WEST THAT CLOSED OFF AS IT APPROACHED THIS AREA. THE UPPER LOW                  
WENT OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE SURFACE LOW WENT THROUGH                 
SIOUX CITY IOWA. THIS IS THE FORM OF OUR MAJOR WINTER STORMS SO IT              
GOT A LOT OF ATTENTION. THE 12Z GFS HAS CHANGED DIRECTIONS AND IS               
MORE IN LINE WITH LATEST ECMWF. LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST AN H5                 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORMING SUNDAY AND PROGRESSING EAST BY MONDAY                
AFTERNOON. CURRENT GRIDS HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW BEGINNING                 
SUNDAY EVENING. CURRENT MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THIS IS A LITTLE EARLY.              
HAVE LEFT IT IN FOR NOW BECAUSE IT IS CONSISTENT WITH SURROUNDING               
OFFICES AND CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OR LOCATION IS VERY LOW. A START               
TIME OF MONDAY MORNING WOULD BE IN LINE WITH ENSEMBLE MEANS.                    
ENSEMBLES ALSO SHOW AN UNCERTAINTY FOR TIMING H5 TROUGH BETWEEN                 
MEMBERS. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE                   
ZONAL WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE. WEDNESDAY                  
WILL SEE NEXT CHANCE AT SOME PASSING LIGHT SNOW. TEMPERATURES WELL              
ABOVE NORMAL EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL DROP TO NEAR NORMAL              
MONDAY AND SHOULD REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD.                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
GOOD VFR IS THE RULE ACROSS THE AREA. CEILINGS ARE UNLIMITED AND                
VISIBILITY IS UNRESTRICTED. TEMPERATURES ARE RISING THIS AFTERNOON              
AS ARE DEW POINTS AS WIND CONTINUES TO FLOW ACROSS THE SNOWFIELD.               
WITH FEW CLOUDS AND WHAT CLOUDS WE HAVE ARE MID TO HIGH EXPECT                  
WITH THE END OF HEATING THIS EVENING TEMPERATURES WILL DROP                     
QUICKLY. THIS TEMPERATURE DROP ALONG WITH THE MOISTURE IN THE AREA              
WILL LEAD TO LOW STRATUS AND FOG FORMATION TONIGHT. HAVE THIS                   
SCENARIO IN THE EAST FOR TONIGHT. KPIR AND KMBG HAVE LESS SNOW                  
COVER SO HAVE NOT BROUGHT LOW CONDITIONS IN THERE BUT WILL NEED TO              
MONITOR.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY                                                           
LONG TERM...KEEFE                                                               
AVIATION...KEEFE                                                                
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN                                                            
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
325 PM CST THU JAN 3 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
BREEZY CONDITIONS PERSISTING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS              
AFTERNOON...THOUGH WINDS HAVE BEEN EASING UP A BIT OVER THE PAST FEW            
HOURS AS EXPECTED. WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASING THROUGH THE                
EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR WEST...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WINDS             
FALLING OFF. KEPT PATCHY FOG OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATER             
TONIGHT...WHERE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTEST AND SNOW COVER IS STILL              
IN PLACE. EXTENDED THE FOG A LITTLE FARTHER WEST...WHERE THERE WAS              
SOME SNOW MELT TODAY ADDING MOISTURE TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WHICH              
WILL BE TRAPPED BELOW AN INVERSION TONIGHT WHILE WINDS DIE OFF AS               
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. GFS AND NAM PERSIST ON INDICATING STRATUS OVER            
THE NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FA TONIGHT...THOUGH NOT SUPPORTED BY              
THE RUC...AND LEFT IT OUT OF THE GRIDS AS SEE NO PROCESSES OVER THIS            
AREA WHICH WOULD BE ADVECTING IN/OR CREATING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF            
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TONIGHT...AND A STRONG               
INVERSION ALOFT...WILL SEE AN ELEVATION SIGNATURE WITH REGARD TO                
LOWS TONIGHT...WITH LOWEST PLACES SEEING COOLEST READINGS.                      
BIGGEST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE TEMPS AND STRATUS/FOG             
POTENTIAL AS VERY WARM AIR ALOFT EXPANDS OVER THE AREA. MOST AREAS              
IN AND EAST OF THE JAMES VALLEY STILL HAVE A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF SNOW             
COVER...WITH MUCH LESS TO NONE WEST OF THE JAMES. EVEN WITH STRONG              
WARMING ALOFT AND GOOD SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WHICH TYPICALLY FAVORS                
GOOD MIXING...IT WILL BE TOUGH TO REALIZE MUCH OF THAT WARMING AT               
THE SURFACE. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT IDEA OF ISOTHERMAL MIXDOWN FROM NEAR             
925MB...EXCEPT HAVE WARMED WESTERN AREAS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THIS               
DUE TO BETTER INSOLATION AND LESS SNOW COVER TO DAMPEN WARMING. NAM             
AND GFS BOTH MAINTAIN HIGH LOW LEVEL RH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION            
OF THE FA. HOWEVER WITH DECENT WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED HIGHER             
ELEVATION OF SWRN MN WHERE HIGHEST RH IS INDICATED...THINK WE WOULD             
STAND A BETTER CHANCE OF STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THAN FOG FOR FRIDAY                
NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.                                                       
MODELS CONTINUE IDEA OF WEAK UPPER WAVE SLIDING NORTHEAST ALONG                 
TIGHTENING MID LEVEL FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY               
NIGHT. MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS WAVE IS SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN VERY DRY               
LAYER BELOW 750-800MB IN MOST AREAS. DECENT ENOUGH LOOKING WAVE THAT            
IT COULD OVERCOME THIS THOUGH...AND HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE               
POPS TO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING              
FOR MOST AREAS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THINK SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE ABLE              
TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT EVEN IF THEY                  
REMAIN A SHADE BELOW FREEZING...WET BULB PROFILE THROUGH THE DRY                
LAYER WOULD PULL DEEP LAYER TEMPS BELOW FREEZING EXCEPT RIGHT AT THE            
SURFACE...SO WENT WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX WORDING FOR THIS PERIOD. BETTER            
CHANCE OF TRUE MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL BE IN SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE              
FA SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE IS MAINTAINED. FARTHER            
NORTH AND WEST...SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS ENOUGH             
THAT WE WOULD LOSE ICE INTRODUCTION INTO THE PRECIP LAYER. THUS HAVE            
CHANGE WORDING FOR THESE AREAS TO FREEZING DRIZZLE...THOUGH WILL                
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AS WELL WITH POTENTIAL THAT THIS MID                 
LEVEL DRYING DOES NOT OCCUR.                                                    
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK...MILD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE FOR MONDAY AHEAD OF            
AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE            
AS PIECES OF UPPER ENERGY SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA. WARM TEMPERATURES              
ALOFT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH LATE MONDAY SUPPORT RAIN             
OR FREEZING RAIN AS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE...ESPECIALLY IN THE             
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA...WITH MODELS NOW SHOWING COOL ENOUGH AIR            
INTO FAR WESTERN AREAS TO ALLOW FOR PREDOMINANTLY SNOW THERE. GFS               
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY REMAINS VERY LOW WITH PLACEMENT OF SURFACE               
LOW AS IT EJECTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY IN THE WEEK. OVER             
THE LAST FEW DAYS...THE GFS HAS TRACKED THE LOW ANYWHERE FROM CNTRL             
SD TO ERN IA...AND EVENTUAL PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE MAKES A HUGE              
DIFFERENCE IN PRECIPITATION TYPE AND POPS. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN               
THE GFS AND RESULTING HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...HAVE STUCK PRETTY            
CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE LONGER RANGE...WHICH FOLLOWS THE MORE             
CONSISTENT ECMWF AND THE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR 03/00Z OPERATIONAL GFS IN             
TRACKING THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER              
VALLEY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH              
SNOW COVER OVER THE AREA...WILL HAVE PATCHY AREAS OF MVFR                       
FOG/VISIBILITIES AROUND THE TAF SITES AFTER 06Z. COULD SEE LOCAL                
VISIBILITIES DIP INTO LOW END MVFR AROUND KHON AND KFSD AFTER 09Z.              
&&                                                                              
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IA...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
SD...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
 JH/JM                                                                          
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
1057 AM CST THU JAN 3 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. UPDATED TO REMOVE WORDING OF                         
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW. HAVE CONTINUED TO INVESTIGATE POSSIBILITY                
FOR FOG/STRATUS FORMATION IN THE JAMES VALLEY/SISSETON HILLS                    
REGION...WITH NAM/GFS STRONGLY INDICATING THE POTENTIAL. WILL                   
CONTINUE GOING FORECAST WITH THIS FEATURE FOR NOW.                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT                                      
THE 500 HPA RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IS NOW MOVING                
INTO THE PLAINS...AND STRONG WARM ADVECTION HAS OCCURRED IN THE                 
PAST SIX OR SO HOURS WITH SOUTHERLY 925 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS 60 TO               
65 KNOTS IN SOME PLACES PER THE NAM/RUC SOUNDINGS. THIS HAS                     
ASSISTED IN NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN                
CWA THIS MORNING WITH BRIEF STINTS AT KATY AND K8D3 OF 30 TO 35                 
MPH WINDS OBSERVED. EVEN AS THE AXIS OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT PUSHES               
TO THE EAST...KABR IS STILL OBSERVED TO RECORD 25 MPH WINDS IN                  
BLOWING SNOW AT 0830Z. WITH WINDS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE                
15 KNOTS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA THROUGH THE FIRST                  
PART OF THE MORNING...EXTENDED THE BLOWING SNOW MENTION THROUGH                 
15Z IN THESE AREAS. IN ADDITION...A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS THROUGH               
12Z. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT ALL STATIONS                
ACROSS THE EAST...BUT WITH THE STRONG WINDS STILL NOT FAR ABOVE                 
THE SURFACE...30+ MPH WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE SO WILL LEAVE                    
ADVISORY RUNNING THROUGH 6AM CST.                                               
A QUIET REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM IS STILL IN STORE WITH THE                  
WARMER PACIFIC AIR STILL MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.               
NAM/RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 850 HPA TEMPERATURES RISING TO +11          
TO +13 C BY LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CWA ON THE HEELS OF THE               
STRONG WARM ADVECTION...THEN DECREASING SOMEWHAT BUT REMAINING IN               
THE +5 TO +10 C RANGE THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM. THUS...WARMER              
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE AREA THE                 
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE WARMEST DAY APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY...AS WINDS                
WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH LIMITED                          
MIXING...BUT MORE MIXING SHOULD OCCUR ON SATURDAY TO BRING DOWN                 
STRONGER WINDS...LIMITING CLOUD POTENTIAL AND INCREASING THE                    
POTENTIAL FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES. MET GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NEAR                   
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY IN THE 40S AND 50S...PARTICULARLY          
IN THE WESTERN CWA...SO THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON                
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.                                                       
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...THERE IS STILL SOME INTEREST IN FOG                    
POTENTIAL THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. 00Z NAM SOUNDINGS              
CONTINUE TO INDICATE STRONG WARM ADVECTION OVER THE SURFACE                     
LEADING TO A DEEP LAYER ABOVE FREEZING ALOFT...BUT A LARGE                      
INVERSION JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH IT               
DUE TO THE CURRENT SNOW COVER AS WELL AS MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM                
THE SOUTH. THE SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE WIDESPREAD LOW                           
STRATUS/POSSIBLE FOG UNDER THE INVERSION...WITH TEMPERATURES AT                 
THE SURFACE REMAINING RATHER COOL RELATIVE TO THE WARM AIR ALOFT.               
THE 00Z GFS IS SIMILAR IN SHOWING A VERY LARGE INVERSION...THOUGH               
IT IS NOT AS STRONG WITH THE WARM AIR ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL                       
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE COARSER RESOLUTION OF THE GFS IN THE              
BOUNDARY LAYER...NOT SURPRISED TO SEE THIS. THE NAM ALSO INDICATES              
LIGHT TO NO WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE UNDER THE INVERSION FOR MUCH                 
OF THIS 36 HOUR TIME PERIOD FROM 00Z FRIDAY TO 12Z SATURDAY...AND               
OCCASIONALLY DEPICTS LITTLE TO NO WIND ALL THE WAY UP TO 800 HPA                
AS WELL. THOUGH THE GFS HAS A BIT STRONGER WINDS...POSSIBLY DUE IN              
PART TO THE COARSER BOUNDARY LAYER RESOLUTION...THINK THAT IF THE               
INVERSION DOES SET UP AS STRONG AS BOTH MODELS SUGGEST...EVEN IF                
THE WINDS ARE A BIT STRONGER THEY MAY SIMPLY FLOW OVER THE                      
INVERSION WITH LITTLE AIR MOVEMENT AT THE SURFACE BELOW IT.                     
THUS...FEEL IT IS A GOOD IDEA TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG IN              
THE GRIDS AT THIS POINT...EVEN THOUGH EXACT TIMING IS STILL                     
RELATIVELY UNCLEAR. ANY FOG THAT WOULD FORM WOULD GREATLY                       
INFLUENCE TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS HELP MAINTAIN THE INVERSION...SO            
LOWERED HIGHS A BIT IN THE EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.                
ACROSS THE EAST ON SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE               
INTO THE 30S AND POSSIBLY 40S IN AREAS AS INCREASED MIXING                      
LEADS TO STRONGER SURFACE WINDS...PREVENTING FOG POTENTIAL AND                  
TAPPING INTO WARMER AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE.                                      
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY                                           
MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE THE INCONSISTENCY                
BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL START OFF                 
FEATURING A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE                           
COUNTRY...AND A RIDGE OVER THE EAST. THE GFS SLIDES THE TROUGH TO               
THE ROCKIES BY TUESDAY MORNING...THEN HAS IT MERGING WITH ANOTHER               
TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND BECOMING SITUATED OVER                
THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH FASTER...PUSHING THE                 
TROUGH TO THE PLAINS BY TUESDAY MORNING...THEN QUICKLY EASTWARD                 
AND NEVER MERGING WITH THE NEXT TROUGH...THOUGH THAT TROUGH DOES                
MOVE OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY.                                                 
AT THE SURFACE...GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS OF A TROUGH                  
OVER THE PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER               
THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING...AND THAT IS WHERE ANY REASONABLE                      
AGREEMENT ENDS. THE GFS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM               
EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY EVENING TO WISCONSIN BY MONDAY                          
EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION OVER THE CWA MUCH OF MONDAY. THE                   
ECMWF HAS A MUCH WEAKER FASTER MOVING LOW WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY                
OF PRECIPITATION. THE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING CONTINUES THROUGH THE               
END OF THE PERIOD AS THE ECMWF TRACKS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE                  
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THE GFS IS ABOUT 12 HOURS BEHIND. CURRENT                 
MODEL DISCREPANCIES APPEAR TO GET EVEN WORSE PAST THE END OF THE                
LONG TERM PERIOD. SO...BASICALLY CHANGED VERY LITTLE IN THE                     
EXTENDED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND                   
MONDAY. AFTER PERUSING THROUGH GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS...IT APPEARS              
THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY DECENT LAYER OF WARM AIR ALOFT THAT COULD                
RESULT IN PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AS FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY                       
NIGHT...AND HAVE SPREAD THAT CHANCE FURTHER WEST THAN THE PREVIOUS              
FORECAST INDICATED. SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATING THE COOLER AIR                    
TAKING OVER SOONER ON MONDAY...SO WENT WITH ALL SNOW IN THE NORTH               
AND A POSSIBLE MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTH. BY MONDAY                  
NIGHT...ANY CONTINUING PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL SNOW. DRY                    
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES                
IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW.                                                      
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY MILD ON SUNDAY AS WEAK WAA                    
CONTINUES AND H85 TEMPS REMAIN JUST ABOVE ZERO. THE COOLER AIR                  
BEGINS TO GET PULLED INTO THE REGION EARLY MONDAY...WITH H85 TEMPS              
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO FROM MONDAY EVENING ONWARD. WENT                
WITH A SLIGHT COOLING TREND MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THOUGH                   
TEMPS LOOK TO BE NEAR OF JUST ABOVE NORMAL.                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS                      
MORNING FROM THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD...MAINLY AFFECTING                 
KABR...KATY AND K8D3. VSBYS MAY FALL TO AROUND 2SM AT TIMES DUE TO              
BLOWING SNOW...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. THE STRONG               
WINDS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW... WILL SUBSIDE AFTER                
12Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA WITH                
SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS AOA 20K FEET STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION.                   
VSBYS WILL BE UNRESTRICTED.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...CONNELLY                                                               
SHORT TERM...ECKSTEIN                                                           
LONG TERM...PARKIN                                                              
AVIATION...PARKIN                                                               
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN                                                            
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
1045 AM CST THU JAN 3 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER SOUTHWESTERN               
MINNESOTA...WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 18Z OVER              
THIS AREA. BOTH RUC AND NAM HAVE CAA/PRESSURE GRADIENT/925 MB WIND              
SPEEDS DECREASING OVER THIS PORTION OF THE CWA THROUGH THE                      
AFTERNOON...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST WDL PROFILER DATA AND               
SFC OBS...SO EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AFTER THIS TIME.              
REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS OKAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOKING TO            
BE ON TRACK WITH LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING MIXING TO 925               
MB...WHICH WOULD YIELD HIGHS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE GOING. MINOR               
UPDATES SENT OUT.  /JM                                                          
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
IN THE NEAR TERM...DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A WIND ADVY FOR                
NEARLY ALL OF SW MN AND BROOKINGS CO. VERY TIGHT SFC PRS GRADIENT               
AND WINDS ALOFT AT H925 AT 55 TO 60 KTS IN THAT AREA THRU 15Z.                  
INTERESTINGLY...MESOSCALE CAA HAS SETUP ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE THIS            
MORNING...PICKING UP THE SUBTLE HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW            
ASCENDS. AS OF 08Z...THE WDL PROFILE IS NOW AT 45 KTS AND                       
INCREASING...AND A COUPLE OF SPOTS IN SW MN ARE ALREADY AT WIND ADVY            
CRITERIA. HOWEVER AFT 15Z...THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT BEGIN TO SHIFT            
OFF TO THE SE OF THIS AREA...SO WANTED THE ADVY ONLY RUNNING UNTIL              
10 AM. OTHERWISE TODAY WL SEE MILDER TEMPS WITH THE SLY FLOW. HIGH              
LEVEL PAC MSTR WL CONT TO STREAM INTO THE FA FM THE WEST...BUT                  
SHOULD NOT HINDER TEMPS. NAM/GFS BEGIN TO PAINT VERY HIGH LEVELS OF             
RH NEAR THE SFC TODAY THRU MUCH OF THE FA...ALONG AND E OF THE JAMES            
RIVER VALLEY. ATTM...OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE ANY STRATUS IN THE GRIDS              
AS LOW LEVEL DEWPTS ARE STILL RATHER DRY TO OUR SOUTH BECAUSE OF THE            
HUGE...COOL SFC ANTICYCLONE GRUDGINGLY MOVG OFF TO THE EAST THRU THE            
ERN CONUS. SO WERE NOT REALLY ADVECTING ANY LOW LEVEL MSTR IN.                  
ALSO...SNOW MELT WL LIKELY NOT BE REAL INTENSE YET TODAY DUE TO THE             
RELATIVELY DRY SFC AIR AND ANTICIPATED TEMPS STAYING AOB FREEZING               
ALONG AND E OF THE JAMES. WL MONITOR HOWEVER. SNDGS ARE MIXED A BIT             
TODAY...AROUND H925. SO BUMPED UP OUR GOING HIGHS ABOUT 2 DEGS GIVEN            
CURRENT PROGGED H925 TEMPS ON THE MODELS.                                       
WINDS SLACKEN OFF TONIGHT...BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. THEREFORE                
KEPT THINGS A BIT CHILLY IN THE LOW LYING AREAS. THE LIGHTEST FLOW              
IS IN THE WRN FA SO OPTED TO PUT IN A MENTION OF FOG IN THE JAMES               
RIVER VALLEY OVER THE SNOW COVER.                                               
ON FRIDAY...S/W ENERGY MOVES THRU THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY AND FRI              
EVENING ACTING TO INCREASE THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL MSTR. H925 TEMPS              
ARE WARMER YET...AND A FAIR AMNT WARMER ON THE NAM AS COMPARED TO               
THE GFS. SO FOR MAX TEMP GUIDANCE...OPTED TO COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE             
TWO SOLNS AS MANY TIMES THE NAM WARMS THINGS UP TOO QUICKLY OFF THE             
SFC...BUT THE GFS CAN ALSO BE TOO COOL. SNDGS ARE TOTALLY INVERTED              
ON FRIDAY WITH NO MIXING. SO GOING ISOTHERMAL FM H925 LOOKED LIKE A             
GOOD FCST.                                                                      
THIS TREND CONTS FRI NIGHT AND SAT...WITH NO MIXING DUE TO A LARGE              
THERMAL INVERSION IN PLACE. SFC PRS GRAD AND WIND ALOFT BEGIN TO                
PICK UP STEAM AGAIN LATE FRI AFTN...LASTING THRU THE NIGHT AND INTO             
SATURDAY. THEREFORE OPTED TO LEAVE FOG WORDING OUT OF THE FA FOR NOW            
FRI NIGHT/SAT DUE TO THE INCREASE IN SLY WINDS. BUT WL MONITOR TO               
SEE IF ERN NEB BEGINS TO DEVELOP FOG/STRATUS WHICH THE SLY FLOW                 
WOULD ADVECT UP HERE. SNOW MELT MOISTURE MAY GET BLOWN APART AS THE             
LOW LEVEL AIR CERTAINLY IS NOT DEAD FRI NIGHT/SAT LIKE IT WAS AROUND            
CHRISTMAS. WITH ANTICIPATED H925 TEMPS...OUR SW CWFA WL LIKELY GET              
VERY MILD FRI AND SAT WHICH SHOULD PUT AN END TO THEIR SNOW COVER.              
DID NOT ALTER PCPN CHCS FURTHER OUT ON SUN AND MON. QUICK GLANCE AT             
THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS SOME PCPN DEVELOPMENT OVR THE NRN AND WRN PTNS              
OF OUR FA ON SUNDAY ALONG A MID LVL BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH STRONG MID             
LVL FRONTOGENESIS. ECWMF COMES IN TOO LATE TO FULLY ANALYZE ON THIS             
SHIFT...BUT THE DAYSHIFT MAY WANT TO ADD A WINTERY MIX IN THESE                 
AREAS ON SUNDAY IF THEY CHOOSE TO DO SO.                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD THRU 12Z FRI.              
MOST SIGNIFICANT SHORT TERM CONCERN IS THE LOW LVL WIND SHEAR DUE TO            
INTENSE INVERSION. MAX PRESSURE FALLS AT 09Z APPEAR TO BE ALONG THE             
I29 CORRIDOR OF SERN SD INTO WRN MN. WDL PROFILER INDICATES A QUICK             
PICKUP TO 45 KTS AT INITIAL GATE OFF SFC...AND MODEL INVERSIONS                 
SUGGEST IN AND ARND 1KFT WHERE SOME STRONGER VERTICAL WIND GRADIENT             
EXISTS. WL CONTINUE SOME LLWS MENTION INTO EARLY MORNING FOR ALL                
SITES...BUT THREAT WL DIMINISH FOR KHON SHORTLY AFT 12Z...14Z AT                
KFSD...AND 16Z WHERE LOW LVL WNDS A BIT MORE SLUGGISH TO RESPOND                
THUSFAR AT KSUX. OTHERWISE...AT THE MOMENT...STRATUS POTENTIAL LOOKS            
OVERDONE IN MDLS CONSIDERING THE LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE BLO                 
INTENSE INVERSION...AS HAVE YET TO HAVE A GOOD MELTING DAY TO                   
INCREASE BL MOISTURE. DOES APPEAR TO BE A BETTER THREAT FOR FOG                 
DEVELOPMENT 06Z-12Z FRI THRU THE JAMES VALLEY AS SFC GRADIENT WKNS              
AND GET A FIRST DAY OF MELT UNDER THE BELT.                                     
&&                                                                              
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...WIND ADVY UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING FOR SDZ040.                             
MN...WIND ADVY UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-                 
     089-090-097.                                                               
IA...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
 MJF/CHAPMAN                                                                    
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA                                             
1011 AM PST THU JAN 3 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
AN ACTIVE WINTER WEATHER PATTERN WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TODAY AND            
TONIGHT WITH MORE WIDESPREAD MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...AND                  
EVEN SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS SNOW LEVELS                 
WILL GRADUALLY RISE WITH VALLEY RAIN BECOMING COMMON BY                         
FRIDAY...WHILE MOUNTAIN SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF                 
THE WORK WEEK.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
REST OF TODAY...A LONG-WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OFF THE COAST WITH A                 
COUPLE SHORT-WAVE FEATURES EMBEDDED IN A MEAN SW FLOW. ONE WEAK                 
WAVE IS EXITING THE AREA...SKIRTING OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE              
CWA. A SECOND STRONGER WAVE...EASILY IDENTIFIABLE ON WV/IR                      
IMAGERY...IS APPROACHING THE PAC NW COAST AND WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT              
THE WEATHER LATE TODAY. CLOSING INTO THE REGION...A WARM IS                     
DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND BROAD AREA OF WAA IS                   
FOUND IN ABOUT THE 900-800 MB LAYER. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FOUND IN                
THE 290-300K LAYER ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTHEAST CWA THIS MORNING               
AND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST...THOUGH IT CAN MAINLY DESCRIBED AS                  
WEAK WITH ONLY A GRADUAL SLOPE IN THE ISENTROPIC SFC. SOME                      
STRONGER LIFT BEGINS TO MOVE ONTO THE WEST CWA LATE TODAY AS THE                
SECOND SHORT-WAVE BEGINS TO MOVE IN. MOISTURE IS REASONABLY DEEP                
OVER THE CWA...SAVE FOR THE SE CWA WHERE A GREATER DRY LAYER                    
EXISTS AROUND THE 900-800 LAYER. THUS THE BEST RISK FOR PRECIP                  
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEST AND NORTHERN CWA...WITH THE FOCUS                   
GRADUALLY STARTING TO SHIFT NORTHWEST. HOURLY PRECIP RATES ARE NOT              
IMPRESSIVE ATTM. RADAR...HOWEVER...SHOWS AN AREA OF PRECIP AHEAD                
OF THE NEXT WAVE MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST CWA THIS HOUR AND                  
WILL ALLOW TO AN INCREASE IN PRECIP ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE              
CWA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS NEXT THE CONSIDERATIONS FOR                
PRECIP-TYPE. THIS MORNING`S SOUNDING SHOWS A SWATH OF ABOVE MILD                
(ABOVE FREEZING) AIR ALOFT...PEAKING NEAR 875 MB. MODELS SHOW THIS              
WARM SLOT...BUT ARE HAVING SOME TROUBLE WITH THE DETAILS. THE NAM               
IS A BIT OVERDONE (TOO MILD) WITH THAT LAYER...THE GFS IS A BIT                 
BETTER. BOTH ARE NOT DOING WELL WITH THE BL PROFILE...THOUGH THE                
NAM/RUC IS CLOSEST. WHERE THIS MILDER TONGUE MOVES OVER THE COLDER              
SFC IS WHERE THE MIXED PRECIP THREAT WOULD BE. SFC TEMPS ARE                    
GRADUALLY WARMING ACROSS THE UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN AND MOSES LAKE                
ZONE. THESE SFC TEMPS AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WARM.                   
THOUGH NOT ALL AREAS WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND THERE MAY BE                  
SOME MIXED OF -IP/-FZRA WHEN THE PRECIP INCREASES THROUGH THE                   
AFTERNOON...THE AREA LOOKS SMALL. THUS THE WINTER WEATHER                       
ADVISORIES WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. IN ADDITION...THE SNOW                    
ADVISORIES OVER THE NE WA AND NRN PANHANDLE ARE ALSO ALLOWED TO                 
EXPIRE...AS ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 2 INCHES               
IN MOST AREAS (THOUGH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR                 
THE CANADIAN BORDER). SNOW ADVISORIES TO THE WEST OF HERE WILL                  
CONTINUE. UPDATED FORECAST SENT...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO                      
TEMPS TOO. /J                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
A PACIFIC STORM WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY THROUGH                      
TONIGHT. OVER THE COLUMBIA BASIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 INCLUDING               
THE KMWH KPUW AND KLWS TAF SITES MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE                      
EXPECTED WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS IN RAIN. OVER THE COLUMBIA               
BASIN NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS IN RAIN ARE                   
EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR KEAT WHERE PERSISTANT LOW LEVEL COLD AIR                  
WILL PROMOTE PERIODS IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND SNOW THROUGH              
18Z FRIDAY. THE MOUNTAINS RINGING THE COLUMBIA BASIN WILL REMAIN                
OBSCURED IN CLOUDS AND PCPN THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.                                 
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
SPOKANE        35  32  38  34  36  27 /  50  80  80  70  30  20                 
COEUR D`ALENE  35  32  39  34  35  27 /  60  80  80  80  40  40                 
PULLMAN        39  36  42  36  39  31 /  30  70  80  60  30  20                 
LEWISTON       44  39  48  39  44  33 /  20  50  60  50  30  20                 
COLVILLE       30  31  37  36  36  28 /  80  90  80  80  60  30                 
SANDPOINT      30  30  35  35  35  25 /  80  80  80  80  60  40                 
KELLOGG        34  31  38  34  35  26 /  60  80  80  70  60  40                 
MOSES LAKE     34  33  42  36  38  25 /  60  60  80  50  20  20                 
WENATCHEE      31  29  34  34  34  25 /  70  80  80  60  30  20                 
OMAK           31  28  33  33  33  24 /  90  80  80  80  40  20                 
&&                                                                              
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ID...NONE.                                                                      
WA...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WATERVILLE                 
     PLATEAU...WENATCHEE AREA.                                                  
     SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKANOGAN                   
     HIGHLANDS...OKANOGAN VALLEY.                                               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> wa