AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA                                            
 900 PM PST WED JAN 24 2007                                                     
 .UPDATE...FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR...SATELLITE LOOPS                
 SHOW CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THIS                   
 EVENING...AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER             
 FOR THE REGION. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...LOW TEMPERATURES            
 THIS MORNING AGAIN DROPPED TO FREEZING OR LOWER. THE LOW AT FRESNO             
 YOSEMITE AIRPORT THIS MORNING WAS 31 DEGREES...THE 19TH CONSECUTIVE            
 MORNING WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES. IF FRESNO DROPS TO 32 OR LOWER             
 THURSDAY MORNING...IT WILL TIE THE RECORD FOR CONSECUTIVE DAYS                 
 WITH LOWS OF 32 OR BELOW OF 20 DAYS...SET FOR THE PERIOD JANUARY               
 3-22 1947.                                                                     
 THERE ARE SIGNS THE AIRMASS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN                  
 JOAQUIN VALLEY MAY FINALLY BE BEGINNING TO MODERATE. THE GOES                  
 WATER-VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 39N/131W. THIS LOW IS           
 FORECAST TO APPROACH CAPE MENDOCINO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PUSHING           
 THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE INLAND AND WEAKENING IT. A SHALLOW...PATCHY              
 MARINE LAYER HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST...               
 EVIDENCED ON BOTH THE GOES FOG LOOP AND THE FORT ORD WIND PROFILER.            
 IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...WARM AIR ABOVE THE            
 INVERSION IS FINALLY MIXING DOWN...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS                  
 AFTERNOON WERE IN THE MID 60S. FRESNO HAD A HIGH OF 65 DEGREES...THE           
 WARMEST TEMPERATURE SINCE DECEMBER 9TH...WHEN THE HIGH WAS 67                  
 DEGREES. BAKERSFIELD WAS A DEGREE WARMER AT 66...THE WARMEST MEADOWS           
 FIELD HAS BEEN SINCE LAST CHRISTMAS DAY...WHEN THE HIGH ALSO WAS 66.           
 AT 04Z...TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY           
 WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S /UP 0-2 DEGREES OVER 04Z WEDNESDAY...             
 EXCEPT AT PORTERVILLE WHERE IT WAS 7 DEGREES WARMER/...AND DEWPOINTS           
 RANGED FROM 24-31 /UP 1-6 DEGREES OVER 04Z WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT AT NAS           
 LEMOORE WHERE THE DEWPOINT WAS DOWN 2 DEGREES/. LOW TEMPERATURES               
 ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH VALLEY THIS MORNING RANGED FROM 24 TO             
 32 DEGREES. EXPECT LOWS THURSDAY MORNING TO BE A DEGREE OR 2                   
 WARMER...BUT STILL MOST LOWS WILL BE AT OR BELOW 32 DEGREES SO THE             
 FROST ADVISORY LOOKS ON TRACK.                                                 
 MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS LOWS TO SLOWLY INCREASE OVER THE SHORT-               
 TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER...ALL THREE MODEL MOS/S HAVE BEEN TOO WARM AT             
 NIGHT...WITH THE NAM AND NGM GUIDANCE FOR FRESNO 2 DEGREES OFF THIS            
 MORNING...WHILE THE GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WAS 4-6 DEGREES TOO                  
 WARM. ADJUSTING THE MODELS FOR THIS BIAS FOR TONIGHT YIELDS LOWS               
 32-33 DEGREES AT FRESNO...SO THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.              
 &&                                                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .AIR QUALITY ISSUES...                                                         
 THE VALLEY AIR DISTRICT HAS ISSUED THE FOLLOWING FIREPLACE/WOOD                
 STOVE BURNING DECLARATION FOR THURSDAY, JANUARY 25, 2007. WOOD                 
 BURNING IS DISCOURAGED IN FRESNO, KERN, KINGS, MADERA, MERCED AND              
 TULARE COUNTIES.                                                               
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM PST WED JAN 24 2007/                        
 SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE              
 CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN AS A RIDGE OF HIGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE           
 REGION. RUC80 UPPER AIR ANALYSIS NOW HAS THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE               
 WEST WITH TEMPERATURES INDICATING SOME WARMING THIS AFTERNOON. IN              
 ADDITION...DEW POINTS ARE ALSO SHOWING A POSITIVE GAIN AS MOST                 
 VALLEY LOCATIONS HAD READING IN THE LOWER 30S. YET...AS DEW POINT              
 VALUES TREND DOWN THIS EVENING...MOST LOCATIONS WILL DROP BACK INTO            
 THE 20S WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK TO THE LOWER              
 30S. AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED...WILL SEE           
 FROST ONCE MORE OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY OVERNIGHT. BY THURSDAY             
 ..MODELS PROG A TROF TO MOVE OVER THE BLOCKING HIGH PATTERN AND                
 WEAKEN THE RIDGE. THIS WILL THAN ALLOW THE CLOSED CUTOFF LOW OVER              
 NORTHWESTERN MEXICO TO BEGIN SHIFTING EAST. AS THE RIDGE PATTERN IS            
 WEAKEN...MODELS SHOW PIECES OF VORT MAX ENERGY SWINGING AROUND THE             
 LOW AND HELPING TO INCREASING THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION. WITH            
 SOME CLOUDS OVER THE REGION...MAY SEE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES                   
 BECOMING MORE MODERATED AND NOT REACHING THE FREEZING MARK.                    
 THEREFORE...WILL NOT MENTION FROST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING           
 AS ONLY THE COLDEST RURAL LOCATIONS WILL REACH 32 DEG-F. SO...WHILE            
 MAX TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A COOLING TREND DURING THE SHORT TERM...             
 OVERNIGHT LOW WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER. THIS WILL HOLD TRUE FOR                 
 FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS CLOUD COVER CONTINUES AND WEAK SHORT             
 WAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROF WILL NOT INFLUENCE THE AMOUNT OF            
 AFTERNOON WARMING DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. MODEL UNCERTAINTY                
 REMAINS HIGH ON HOW THE ATMOSPHERE WILL EVOLVE INTO THE WEEKEND                
 WHICH PREVENTS THE PLACEMENT OF PRECIP POTENTIALS FOR SATURDAY.                
 THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND            
 WAIT FOR BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS ON SATURDAY ON EXACTLY WHERE THE               
 UPPER LOW WILL RESIDE DURING THAT TIME FRAME.                                  
 LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS             
 CONTINUE TO HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME WITH THE EVENTUAL LOCATION OF AN             
 OFFSHORE CUTOFF LOW UNDERNEATH A MEAN WEST COAST RIDGE DURING THIS             
 PERIOD. EACH MODEL HAS A DIFFERENT SOLUTION AND THERE IS NO RUN TO             
 RUN CONSISTENCY WITH ANY OF THE MODELS. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD              
 AGREEMENT WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST AND                  
 EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WHICH WILL SUGGESTS THE CONTINUATION            
 OF A BLOCKY PATTERN OVER NOAM. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP            
 A PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY FORECAST GOING ACROSS THE CWFA WITH TEMPS              
 RUNNING FAIRLY CLOSE TO CLIMO.                                                 
 AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH            
 SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY DUE TO HAZE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL                
 PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. FOR                 
 SPECIFIC DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO THE TAFS FOR KMCE...KFAT AND                
 KBFL...AND TWEB ROUTES 421 AND 423.                                            
 AIR QUALITY ISSUES...                                                          
 THE VALLEY AIR DISTRICT HAS ISSUED THE FOLLOWING FIREPLACE/WOOD                
 STOVE BURNING DECLARATION FOR THURSDAY...JANUARY 25, 2007. WOOD                
 BURNING IS DISCOURAGED IN FRESNO...KERN...KINGS...MADERA...MERCED              
 AND TULARE COUNTIES.                                                           
 &&                                                                             
 .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM PST THURSDAY FOR THE              
 CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY /CAZ089>092/.                          
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SANGER/MOLINA/BEAN                                                             
 WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD                                                            
</pre> ca                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                             
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ                                        
 930 PM EST THU JAN 25 2007                                                     
 .UPDATE /TONIGHT/...                                                           
 HAVE UPDATED THE ZONE PACKAGE AND SEVERAL STATEMENTS FOR A NUMBER OF           
 REASONS....                                                                    
 BASED ON CURRENT AND EXPECTED RADAR TRENDS, HAVE OPTED TO DROP THE             
 SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE DELMARVA.  WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED           
 SNOW SHOWERS AROUND, THE CHANCE OF HEAVIER SQUALLS HAS DIMINISHED.             
 STILL, BE CAUTIOUS WHILE DRIVING IN ANY SNOW SHOWERS.                          
 AS A RESULT OF THE CANCELED SNOW ADVISORY, HAVE ALSO MADE SOME                 
 ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS.  STILL HAVE KEPT LOW CHANCE VALUES, BUT LOWERED           
 SOME OF THE HIGHER CHANCES TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT.                                
 MADE SOME TWEAKS TO WORDING TO REMOVE EVENING REFERENCES.                      
 WSW UPDATE IS ALREADY OUT AND AN UPDATED SPS HAS ALREADY BEEN                  
 ISSUED.                                                                        
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 /ISSUED 435 PM EST THU JAN 25 2007/                                            
 .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...                                    
 THE ARCTIC AIR IS CURRENTLY FILTERING INTO THE CWA. DEWPOINTS ACROSS           
 THE SOUTHERN POCONOS HAVE DROPPED TO AROUND ZERO. ACROSS THE                   
 DELMARVA, THEY RANGE FROM THE TEENS INTO THE LOWER 20S.                        
 THE FOCUS OF THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE TONIGHT AS THE SECOND              
 SHORT WAVE OF THE CALENDER DAY MAKES IT`S WAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN              
 PORTION OF THE REGION. THE FIRST WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MIDDAY SNOW           
 SQUALLS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.                                   
 12Z SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT OUR WINDEX EVENT WILL                  
 CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE. WE               
 EVEN FOUND CAPE FORECAST INTO THE 40 J/KG RANGE ACROSS THE DELMARVA            
 PER THE ETA SOUNDINGS OFF BUFKIT. THE MOISTURE IS THERE AS IS THE              
 LIFTING MECHANISM. INCORPORATING SOME NEWER TECHNIQUES, WE ALSO                
 FOUND SOME NICE OMEGA/DENDRITE CROSSHAIRS. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND              
 THE WRF FOCUS ON THE DELMARVA REGION THIS EVENING, THEY CONCENTRATE            
 THEIR QPF IN SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT AREA. THE GFS IS MORE TO THE NORTH.            
 THE LATEST RUC40 AND STONEYBROOK MM5 GIVES MORE CREDENCE TO THE                
 WRF. EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON, THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE COULD BE               
 SEEN ON THE VISIBLE SAT PIX AND LOOKED PRETTY HEALTHY.                         
 WHILE THERE MAY BE A DECREASE IN SNOW SHOWERS THE NEXT SEVERAL                 
 HOURS, WE ARE ANTICIPATING AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE ONCE AGAIN THIS             
 EVENING. FOR THE ABOVE REASONS, WE WENT OUT WITH A SNOW ADVISORY FOR           
 THE DELMARVA. WE CONTINUE TO THINK THAT DECENT BURSTS OF SNOW REMAIN           
 LIKELY. NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE 1 OR 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE                 
 DELMARVA, BUT WE FELT THAT THESE TYPE OF ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE                
 NUMEROUS ENOUGH TO NECESSITATE THE ADVISORY.                                   
 WITH INCREASING WINDS OVERNIGHT, WINDCHILLS WILL BE QUITE NASTY                
 TOMORROW MORNING. SINGLE DIGITS IN MANY SPOTS, WITH NEGATIVE VALUES            
 ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA. THE WINDCHILL ADVISORY REMAINS           
 POSTED FOR THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND EXTREME NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY.              
 WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY TOMORROW. GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE              
 NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WHILE WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE IS NOT                   
 EXPECTED, SOME TREES OR WIRES COULD COME DOWN. IT WON`T BE A FUN DAY           
 WITHOUT HEAT TOMORROW WITH HIGHS ONLY GETTING INTO THE TEENS AND               
 TWENTIES.                                                                      
 THE STIFF OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DECEASE TOMORROW NIGHT AS HIGH           
 PRESSURE BUILD IN. THE NEXT THREAT OF PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE              
 LATE IN THE WEEKEND FOR MOST OF US, BUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA           
 COULD HAVE FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS JUST ABOUT ANY TIME THOUGH PERIOD.            
 TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE SEASONAL COME SATURDAY.                   
 &&                                                                             
 .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                       
 A COOLING TREND IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT            
 WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN            
 ZONES WITH JUST SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED. IT APPEARS             
 MOST OF THE ACTIVITY (PRECIPITATION) ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL                 
 REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH.                                                           
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC WITH VERY                         
 BRIEF(LITERALLY MINUTES)LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO VSBY. WINDS FROM THE            
 WEST TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BE THE CASE RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT INTO              
 THE MID DAY HOURS ON FRIDAY. SKY-WISE, AFTER THE SHOWERS MOVE                  
 THROUGH SHOULD BE CRYSTAL CLEAR ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS. DOWN                
 SOUTH, SOME CONCERN WITH A BAND OF SNOW SETTING UP FROM SOUTHCENTRAL           
 PA SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERN DEL BAY. STILL WORKING ON THAT POTENTIAL.             
 MEANWHILE, THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ARRIVES WITH A STINGING               
 WIND AFTER SUNSET. THERE IS A NOTAM FOR MIV FOR EQUIP PROBLEMS, BUT            
 ACY TAF SHOULD SUFFICE FOR MIV TOO GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN.                 
 &&                                                                             
 .MARINE...                                                                     
 VERY STRONG WIND GRADIENT WILL BE SETTING UP THIS EVENING AND LAST             
 THROUGH FRIDAY. GALES GOING UP IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND STORM               
 WARNINGS BEYOND THAT FOR THE MID ATLC WATERS. VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL           
 SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION WITH WIND CHILLS UNDER 10 DEGREES. THERE               
 WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE COLD AND ANYONE HEADING             
 DOWN THE DELAWARE COAST MAY ENCOUNTER SOME WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AS              
 COLD AIR BLOWS OVER VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER            
 40S.                                                                           
 HIGHEST WAVES IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS LIKELY TO BE AROUND 7 FT WITH            
 5 FT IN THE LOWER BAY.                                                         
 HAVE CALCULATED THE ICING POTENTIAL GIVEN AIR/SEA/WIND COMPONENTS              
 AND IT TRANSLATES TO A LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY. DEL BAY LIKELY TO HAVE            
 THE THREAT ACROSS THE LOWER END WHERE SEAS WILL BE OVER 5 FT AND THE           
 WIND SHEARING OFF THE WHITE CAPS. AFTER A MINOR TEMPERATURE                    
 RECOVERY, ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY AND            
 REINFORCE THE COLD AIR. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ON THE FRONT OFF THE            
 SOUTHEAST COAST AND MOVE NORTHEAST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER             
 THE MID SECTION. ONCE AGAIN THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH MORE COLD AIR           
 COMING IN FROM THE NORTH.                                                      
 FORESEEABLE FUTURE THEN IS CONTINUED COLD, SOME SNOW SHOWERS AT                
 TIMES WITH GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS.                                               
 &&                                                                             
 .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ054-             
      055.                                                                      
 NJ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NJZ001.             
 DE...NONE.                                                                     
 MD...NONE.                                                                     
 MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR              
      ANZ431-450>455.                                                           
      GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.                
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 UPDATE...NIERENBERG                                                            
 SHORT TERM...KRUZDLO                                                           
 LONG TERM...KRUZDLO/HPC                                                        
 AVIATION/MARINE...EBERWINE                                                     
</pre> de                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ                                        
 435 PM EST THU JAN 25 2007                                                     
 .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...                                    
 THE ARCTIC AIR IS CURRENTLY FILTERING INTO THE CWA. DEWPOINTS ACROSS           
 THE SOUTHERN POCONOS HAVE DROPPED TO AROUND ZERO. ACROSS THE                   
 DELMARVA, THEY RANGE FROM THE TEENS INTO THE LOWER 20S.                        
 THE FOCUS OF THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE TONIGHT AS THE SECOND              
 SHORT WAVE OF THE CALENDER DAY MAKES IT`S WAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN              
 PORTION OF THE REGION. THE FIRST WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MIDDAY SNOW           
 SQUALLS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.                                   
 12Z SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT OUR WINDEX EVENT WILL                  
 CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE. WE               
 EVEN FOUND CAPE FORECAST INTO THE 40 J/KG RANGE ACROSS THE DELMARVA            
 PER THE ETA SOUNDINGS OFF BUFKIT. THE MOISTURE IS THERE AS IS THE              
 LIFTING MECHANISM. INCORPORATING SOME NEWER TECHNIQUES, WE ALSO                
 FOUND SOME NICE OMEGA/DENDRITE CROSSHAIRS. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND              
 THE WRF FOCUS ON THE DELMARVA REGION THIS EVENING, THEY CONCENTRATE            
 THEIR QPF IN SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT AREA. THE GFS IS MORE TO THE NORTH.            
 THE LATEST RUC40 AND STONEYBROOK MM5 GIVES MORE CREDENCE TO THE                
 WRF. EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON, THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE COULD BE               
 SEEN ON THE VISIBLE SAT PIX AND LOOKED PRETTY HEALTHY.                         
 WHILE THERE MAY BE A DECREASE IN SNOW SHOWERS THE NEXT SEVERAL                 
 HOURS, WE ARE ANTICIPATING AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE ONCE AGAIN THIS             
 EVENING. FOR THE ABOVE REASONS, WE WENT OUT WITH A SNOW ADVISORY FOR           
 THE DELMARVA. WE CONTINUE TO THINK THAT DECENT BURSTS OF SNOW REMAIN           
 LIKELY. NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE 1 OR 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE                 
 DELMARVA, BUT WE FELT THAT THESE TYPE OF ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE                
 NUMEROUS ENOUGH TO NECESSITATE THE ADVISORY.                                   
 WITH INCREASING WINDS OVERNIGHT, WINDCHILLS WILL BE QUITE NASTY                
 TOMORROW MORNING. SINGLE DIGITS IN MANY SPOTS, WITH NEGATIVE VALUES            
 ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA. THE WINDCHILL ADVISORY REMAINS           
 POSTED FOR THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND EXTREME NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY.              
 WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY TOMORROW. GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE              
 NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WHILE WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE IS NOT                   
 EXPECTED, SOME TREES OR WIRES COULD COME DOWN. IT WON`T BE A FUN DAY           
 WITHOUT HEAT TOMORROW WITH HIGHS ONLY GETTING INTO THE TEENS AND               
 TWENTIES.                                                                      
 THE STIFF OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DECEASE TOMORROW NIGHT AS HIGH           
 PRESSURE BUILD IN. THE NEXT THREAT OF PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE              
 LATE IN THE WEEKEND FOR MOST OF US, BUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA           
 COULD HAVE FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS JUST ABOUT ANY TIME THOUGH PERIOD.            
 TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE SEASONAL COME SATURDAY.                   
 &&                                                                             
 .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                       
 A COOLING TREND IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT            
 WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN            
 ZONES WITH JUST SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED. IT APPEARS             
 MOST OF THE ACTIVITY (PRECIPITATION) ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL                 
 REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH.                                                           
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC WITH VERY                         
 BRIEF(LITERALLY MINUTES)LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO VSBY. WINDS FROM THE            
 WEST TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BE THE CASE RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT INTO              
 THE MID DAY HOURS ON FRIDAY. SKY-WISE, AFTER THE SHOWERS MOVE                  
 THROUGH SHOULD BE CRYSTAL CLEAR ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS. DOWN                
 SOUTH, SOME CONCERN WITH A BAND OF SNOW SETTING UP FROM SOUTHCENTRAL           
 PA SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERN DEL BAY. STILL WORKING ON THAT POTENTIAL.             
 MEANWHILE, THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ARRIVES WITH A STINGING               
 WIND AFTER SUNSET. THERE IS A NOTAM FOR MIV FOR EQUIP PROBLEMS, BUT            
 ACY TAF SHOULD SUFFICE FOR MIV TOO GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN.                 
 &&                                                                             
 .MARINE...                                                                     
 VERY STRONG WIND GRADIENT WILL BE SETTING UP THIS EVENING AND LAST             
 THROUGH FRIDAY. GALES GOING UP IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND STORM               
 WARNINGS BEYOND THAT FOR THE MID ATLC WATERS. VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL           
 SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION WITH WIND CHILLS UNDER 10 DEGREES. THERE               
 WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE COLD AND ANYONE HEADING             
 DOWN THE DELAWARE COAST MAY ENCOUNTER SOME WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AS              
 COLD AIR BLOWS OVER VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER            
 40S.                                                                           
 HIGHEST WAVES IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS LIKELY TO BE AROUND 7 FT WITH            
 5 FT IN THE LOWER BAY.                                                         
 HAVE CALCULATED THE ICING POTENTIAL GIVEN AIR/SEA/WIND COMPONENTS              
 AND IT TRANSLATES TO A LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY. DEL BAY LIKELY TO HAVE            
 THE THREAT ACROSS THE LOWER END WHERE SEAS WILL BE OVER 5 FT AND THE           
 WIND SHEARING OFF THE WHITE CAPS. AFTER A MINOR TEMPERATURE                    
 RECOVERY, ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY AND            
 REINFORCE THE COLD AIR. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ON THE FRONT OFF THE            
 SOUTHEAST COAST AND MOVE NORTHEAST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER             
 THE MID SECTION. ONCE AGAIN THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH MORE COLD AIR           
 COMING IN FROM THE NORTH.                                                      
 FORESEEABLE FUTURE THEN IS CONTINUED COLD, SOME SNOW SHOWERS AT                
 TIMES WITH GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS.                                               
 &&                                                                             
 .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ054-             
      055.                                                                      
 NJ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NJZ001.             
 DE...SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR               
      DEZ001>004.                                                               
 MD...SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR               
      MDZ008-012-015-019-020.                                                   
 MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR              
      ANZ431-450>455.                                                           
      GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.                
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SHORT TERM...KRUZDLO                                                           
 LONG TERM...KRUZDLO/HPC                                                        
 AVIATION/MARINE...EBERWINE                                                     
</pre> de                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                        
 730 PM EST FRI JAN 26 2007                                                     
 .SYNOPSIS...                                                                   
 00Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING MAIN POLAR VORTEX NOW              
 PUSHING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST TAKING MUCH OF THE EXTREME COLD                
 EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THE PAST 48 HOURS WITH IT. FURTHER            
 UPSTREAM WE SEE YET ANOTHER POTENT UPPER DISTURBANCE SINKING SOUTH             
 THROUGH ONTARIO TOWARD THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER                      
 MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ASSOCIATED WITH TH SOUTHERN STREAM WE SEE SOME             
 WEAK RIDGING BUILDING OVER OUR AREA AT THIS TIME...FOLLOWED CLOSELY            
 BY AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS. THIS SYSTEM              
 WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF DURING           
 SATURDAY EFFECTING OUR REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING.                             
 AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW JUST ABOUT DIRECTLY                      
 OVERHEAD...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE               
 FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY.                                                        
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 WITH THE SETTING OF THE SUN...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...CLEAR SKIES             
 AND VERY DRY AIR WILL SET UP NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING                    
 CONDITIONS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY            
 TO PLUMMET BY LATE EVENING INTO THE 30 MOST LOCATIONS AND ARE EVEN             
 NOW FALLING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE 40S. GUIDANCE STILL HAVE A HARD TIME           
 LATCHING ON TO A CONSENSUS LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. ONCE            
 AGAIN WENT ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...AND STILL FEEL THIS            
 WAS THE WAY TO GO. STILL EVEN ON THIS WARMER SIDE...TEMPS SHOULD               
 FALL BELOW THE FREEZING MARK FOR MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE                  
 IMMEDIATE COAST AND EVEN INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S FOR THE                 
 COLDER INLAND LOCATIONS. ONE THING THAT COULD ADD SOME UNCERTAINTY             
 TO THE FORECAST IS THE BEGINNING OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE           
 ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. IF SOME OF THIS HIGH            
 CLOUDS IS ABLE TO REACH OUR AREA DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS IT                
 WOULD LIKELY SLOW OR STOP THE COOLING PROCESS. BELIEVE THIS IS OF              
 LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME AND WILL WAIT A WHILE LONGER...IN ORDER           
 TO BETTER ANALYZE SATELLITE TRENDS BEFORE MAKING ANY CHANGES.                  
 THIS HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY OVERSPREAD OUR SKIES            
 DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT...IT WOULD SEEM ANY                  
 SHOWERS/AREAS OF RAIN WOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE EARLY TO MID EVENING            
 HOURS.                                                                         
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY...CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS WILL                   
 CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. A BROKEN LAYER OF CS            
 (AROUND 25K FT) WILL DEVELOP BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON            
 AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RAPIDLY DEVELOPS IN THE GULF. RAIN CHANCES            
 WILL QUICKLY INCREASE AFTER THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD (00 UTC                 
 SUNDAY).                                                                       
 &&                                                                             
 .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 AL...NONE.                                                                     
 GA...NONE.                                                                     
 FL...NONE.                                                                     
 GM...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 AVIATION...FOURNIER                                                            
 REST OF DISCUSSION...MROCZKA                                                   
</pre> fl                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                             
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                        
 312 PM EST FRI JAN 26 2007                                                     
 ...FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...                 
 .SYNOPSIS...CLEAR BUT COOL DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES             
 WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S AT THIS HOUR. WE SHOULD TOP OUT              
 NEAR 60 IN OUR FLORIDA COUNTIES. DEWPOINTS HAVE PLUMMETED AS                   
 EXPECTED AND HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOWER TEENS IN SOME PLACES. THE             
 1027MB SURFACE HIGH IS NOW CENTERED BETWEEN BIRMINGHAM AND                     
 MONTGOMERY. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS FROM THE RUC80 AT 18UTC ALONG WITH              
 SATELLITE DATA IS SHOWING THE UPPER LOW THAT HAD BEEN PARKED OVER              
 THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NEAR THE MEXICAN BORDER IS FINALLY ON THE MOVE.           
 SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS SPREADING EASTWARD AND WILL LIKELY SIT RIGHT              
 OVER OUR CWA BY NIGHTFALL.                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...                                  
 IT`S GOING TO BE COLD. HAVE STRUGGLED THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH             
 THIS PARTICULAR FORECAST WITH REGARDS TO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES DUE TO           
 CONFLICTING SIGNALS BETWEEN GLOBAL MODELS AND VARIOUS ENSEMBLE                 
 PACKAGES. I THINK TODAY THERE HAS BEEN SOME CLUES PROVIDED BY THE              
 NEW 12Z DATA. SO THERE IS A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE TODAY IN                    
 TONIGHT`S FORECAST THAN I HAD JUST 24 HOURS AGO. BEYOND THIS TIME              
 FRAME...THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD TO EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE              
 OVERALL PATTERN...ESPECIALLY IN REGARDS TO THE GULF LOW PROGGED TO             
 DEVELOP ON SATURDAY. GLOBAL MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT WE               
 WILL BE IN A COLD PATTERN FOR SOME TIME.                                       
 TONIGHT...CLEAR AND COLD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. NOW...JUST             
 HOW COLD IS IT GOING TO GET AND WHERE? LATEST MAV GUIDANCE HAS                 
 CONTINUED TO SHOW COLD TEMPERATURES JUST LIKE ITS PREDECESSORS. THE            
 MET HAS ACTUALLY DROPPED A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD AND NOW IS             
 INDICATING A FREEZE AT ALMOST ALL INLAND LOCATIONS. BIAS FIELDS ALSO           
 SUPPORT FREEZING TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS THE 26/00Z ENSEMBLES. ONLY            
 OUTLIER TO FREEZING TEMPERATURES IS THE 26/09Z SREF WHICH HAS VERY             
 LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES. GIVEN ALL THE DATA            
 SUPPORTING FREEZING TEMPS...WILL CONTINUE THIS IN THE FORECAST.                
 ADDITIONALLY...CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE NOT QUITE AS WARM AS WE WERE           
 EXPECTING. THUS...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT MAY BE ABLE TO DROP A LITTLE            
 LOWER. WILL THEREFORE LOWER MIN TEMPS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS FROM WHAT           
 I INHERITED A COUPLE OF DEGREES. THIS PRODUCES A CORRIDOR OF                   
 TEMPERATURES FROM TLH TO VLD AND SOUTHWARD TO CTY DOWN IN THE 26 TO            
 28 DEGREE RANGE. AREAS WEST OF THE OCHLOCKNEE/CHATTAHOOCHEE RIVERS             
 SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER AS I AM EXPECTING A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TO            
 SET UP BEFORE DAYBREAK AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. SINCE              
 I`M NOT FORECASTING A WIDESPREAD AREA OF TEMPERATURES BELOW 25                 
 DEGREES WILL NOT BE ISSUING A HARD FREEZE WARNING.                             
 SATURDAY...AFTER A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY...THINGS WILL BE                 
 CHANGING FAST BY AFTERNOON. PREVIOUSLY STALLED UPPER LOW WILL OPEN             
 UP INTO A SHORTWAVE AND RACE EASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST BY MID              
 DAY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL INITIATE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW IN              
 THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT WILL SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. BY            
 LATE AFTERNOON (21Z) RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE                  
 WESTERN AREAS WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY ALMOST ALL AREAS.              
 TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 60S OVER THE                 
 EASTERN AREAS AS WARM ONSHORE FLOW COMBINES WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE.             
 SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW AND SHORTWAVE WILL BE PASSING JUST                
 SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT                
 HOURS. THIS IS SIGNIFICANT BECAUSE EARLIER RUNS OF THE NAM INDICATED           
 THIS LOW MIGHT BE FURTHER NORTH. THIS WOULD PUT A PORTION OF THE               
 REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR AND THEREFORE GIVE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME           
 THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...NOW THAT BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AGREE WITHIN            
 50 MILES ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW IT LOOKS LIKE ALMOST ALL OF           
 THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN IN THE COOL SECTOR OF THIS LOW AND                    
 THEREFORE NOT HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE NAM DOES           
 HAVE A LITTLE BIT OF INSTABILITY RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN            
 FLORIDA...SO WILL MENTION ISOLATED TS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. WILL              
 INCREASE POPS TO CATEGORICAL OVER THE SOUTHEAST FLA BIG BEND NEARER            
 TO WHERE THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE TRACKING AND KEEP HIGH LIKELY POPS            
 (70 PERCENT ELSEWHERE). SINCE THIS WILL BE A QUICK MOVING                      
 STORM...QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH WITH THE HEAVIEST              
 AMOUNTS DOWN TOWARD CTY. SHOULD SEE RAIN DECREASING AFTER 06Z                  
 NORTHWESTERN AREAS AND COMING TO AN END ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BY 12Z           
 AS THE SURFACE LOW AND SHORTWAVE MOVE AWAY.                                    
 SUNDAY...ONCE THE SURFACE LOW DEPARTS WILL HAVE SKIES CLEARING BY              
 AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVING OVER            
 THE SOUTHEAST. COULD BE QUITE BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE                   
 PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INITIALLY BE TIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL              
 STRUGGLE UNDER COLD ADVECTION TO RECOVER INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S.            
 SUNDAY NIGHT...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN SETTLE OVER THE            
 CWA BRINGING ANOTHER COLD AIR OUTBREAK. WILL FOLLOW CLOSE TO THE               
 MAV/MET GUIDANCE BLEND HERE WHICH GIVES A POTENTIAL HARD FREEZE FOR            
 THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA WITH A LIGHT FREEZE ELSEWHERE.               
 .LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                          
 A MEAN TROUGH WILL ENCOMPASS THE ERN 2/3 OF THE LOWER 48 DURING THE            
 PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY                 
 CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE LATTER HALF OF THE           
 WEEK HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AS THE GFSX REVERSED ITS DRY                
 TREND. INITIALLY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE WRN GULF              
 LATE TUESDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE ERN GULF AND FL ON WEDNESDAY. IN             
 ITS WAKE...A RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT SWEEP             
 ACROSS THE ERN CONUS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY           
 AND THURSDAY MODERATE CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL            
 ON FRIDAY.                                                                     
 ---LONG TERM UPDATE---                                                         
 LATEST 12Z MEX INDICATES A LOW TEMPERATURE AT TLH DOWN TO 18 DEGREES           
 FOR TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS WOULDN`T BE A RECORD...IT WOULD BE             
 THE FIRST TIME IN A FEW YEARS WE`VE HAD MIN TEMPS DOWN IN THE TEENS.           
 PREFER FOR NOW TO WAIT ANOTHER MODEL RUN BEFORE TAKING THE MIN DOWN            
 ANY LOWER. I ALREADY HAVE MID 20S MOST SITES WHICH MATCH WELL WITH             
 THE 26/12Z MEX GUIDANCE BIAS FIELDS. BUT WITH THIS COLD OF A                   
 PATTERN...IT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISING TO SEE FUTURE MODEL RUNS                   
 CONTINUE THIS TREND.                                                           
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINAL AND ALONG             
 BOTH TWEB ROUTES THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE SW REST OF THIS                
 AFTERNOON OVER DHN, ABY AND PFN. CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AFTER                 
 SUNSET. HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOPING AFTER SUNRISE.                                  
 &&                                                                             
 .MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE INTO THE EVENING            
 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. WINDS AND SEAS WILL             
 PICK UP AGAIN LATE TOMORROW AND POSSIBLY MEET SCA CRITERIA SATURDAY            
 NIGHT THROUGH EARLY ON SUNDAY. AFTER THAT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD              
 DECREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.                   
 &&                                                                             
 .FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR TODAY LOOK TO VERIFY WELL WITH           
 RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE LOW 20 PERCENT RANGE IN FLORIDA AND                
 UPPER 10S TO LOW 20S IN GEORGIA. RED FLAG CONCERNS MAY RETURN FOR              
 TOMORROW IN OUR FLORIDA COUNTIES WHERE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES            
 COULD REACH CRITICAL LEVELS FOR AROUND FOUR HOURS IN OUR EASTERN               
 COUNTIES...BUT AT THIS TIME THINK THAT DURATIONS SHOULD ONLY BE                
 AROUND TWO TO THREE HOURS.                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 TALLAHASSEE  26  65  45  59  27 /  00  10  70  10  05                          
 PANAMA CITY  37  63  48  58  32 /  00  30  70  05  05                          
 DOTHAN       32  61  41  54  25 /  00  30  70  05  05                          
 ALBANY       28  61  42  55  25 /  00  10  70  05  05                          
 VALDOSTA     27  65  45  59  28 /  00  10  70  10  05                          
 CROSS CITY   28  67  48  63  29 /  00  10  80  10  05                          
 &&                                                                             
 .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 AL...NONE.                                                                     
 GA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST FOR THE FOLLOWING                         
      ZONES: BAKER...BEN HILL...BERRIEN...BROOKS...CALHOUN...                   
      CLAY...COLQUITT...COOK...DECATUR...DOUGHERTY...EARLY...                   
      GRADY...IRWIN...LANIER...LEE...LOWNDES...MILLER...                        
      MITCHELL...QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...SEMINOLE...TERRELL...                     
      THOMAS...TIFT...TURNER...WORTH.                                           
 FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR THE           
      FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...DIXIE...FRANKLIN...                      
      GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...                      
      JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...              
      WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.                                                     
 GM...NONE.                                                                     
 $$                                                                             
 AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...BLOCK                                                  
 SHORT TERM/LONG TERM UPDATE/MARINE...GODSEY                                    
 LONG TERM...JAMSKI                                                             
</pre> fl                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                        
 735 PM EST THU JAN 25 2007                                                     
 .SYNOPSIS...                                                                   
 00Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG                 
 LONGWAVE RIDGE COVERING THE WESTERN CONUS AND A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS             
 THE EAST. THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH IS NOW REACHING THE ATLANTIC                 
 SEABOARD AND IS ANCHORED BY A DISTINCT POLAR VORTEX DROPPING                   
 SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC. THE ONLY OTHER FEATURE OF NOTE               
 REMAINS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS FEATURE              
 WILL BEGIN TO COME BACK EAST AGAIN IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND WILL BE            
 EFFECTING OUR REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.                                
 AT THE SURFACE...SURFACE FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP RAPIDLY SOUTH INTO            
 THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST              
 INTO OUR AREA. SKIES HAVE CLEARED THIS PAST AFTERNOON AND A NICE               
 STRETCH OF WEATHER...ALTHOUGH ON THE COOL SIDE...WILL BE WITH US               
 INTO SATURDAY MORNING.                                                         
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 AS MENTIONED ABOVE...HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE                 
 MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BUILD SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE NEXT 24           
 HOURS TO A POSITION DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BY FRIDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH              
 THE HIGH IS BUILDING IN TONIGHT...THE GRADIENT SHOULD REMAIN UP JUST           
 ENOUGH TO NOT ALLOW COMPLETE DE-COUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS           
 WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM REALLY BOTTOMING OUT. GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD            
 AGREEMENT WITH A CLUSTERING BETWEEN 29 AND 32 FOR MOST LOCATIONS               
 AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THIS MAY BE A COUPLE DEGREES TO COOL            
 BUT FORECAST LOOKS IN LINE ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT AN UPDATE AT THIS             
 TIME. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE NEAR FREEZING...FROST SEEMS A BIT                 
 UNLIKELY AS ALL MOS GUIDANCE IS INDICATING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF             
 AROUND 5-7 DEGREES AT THE TIME OF FREEZING TEMPS.                              
 NO LACK OF SUN FOR THE DAY ON FRIDAY...AND EVEN THOUGH TEMPS WILL              
 STRUGGLE TO HIT THE 60 DEGREE MARK IN THE AFTERNOON...THE LIGHT                
 WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING HIGH WILL NOT MAKE THINGS FEEL              
 MUCH COOLER.                                                                   
 NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE MARINE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.                   
 OFFSHORE BUOYS SHOWING WINDS AROUND 15 KTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20-23            
 KTS WHICH IS IN LINE WITH CURRENT FORECAST.                                    
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 VFR CONDITIONS...CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH           
 FRIDAY EVENING.                                                                
 &&                                                                             
 .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 AL...NONE.                                                                     
 GA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING           
      ZONES: BAKER...BEN HILL...BERRIEN...BROOKS...CALHOUN...                   
      CLAY...COLQUITT...COOK...DECATUR...DOUGHERTY...EARLY...                   
      GRADY...IRWIN...LANIER...LEE...LOWNDES...MILLER...                        
      MITCHELL...QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...SEMINOLE...TERRELL...                     
      THOMAS...TIFT...TURNER...WORTH.                                           
 FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR THE           
      FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...GADSDEN...HOLMES...INLAND                
      WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY...              
      MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.                                  
      RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ TO 7 PM EST /6 PM             
      CST/ FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...                     
      DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...INLAND                       
      WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY...              
      MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.                                  
 GM...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 AVIATION...FOURNIER                                                            
 REST OF DISCUSSION...MROCZKA                                                   
</pre> fl                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                            
 1115 AM CST FRI JAN 26 2007                                                    
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 UPDATED FORECAST TODAY FOR MORE SUNSHINE...A BIT STRONGER SW WINDS             
 AND ELEVATED HIGHS UP A DEGREE OR TWO. THIS DUE TO MORE EXPECTED               
 SUNSHINE AND STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM STRONGER SW WINDS.               
 HIGHS AROUND 40F FROM I-74 NE AND UPPER 40S SW OF A RUSHVILLE TO               
 SPRINGFIELD TO TERRE HAUTE LINE.                                               
 16Z SURFACE MAP SHOWS 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST                
 STATES CENTERED ON AL WHILE 1000 MB LOW PRESSURE EAST OF LAKE                  
 WINNIPEG WITH ITS COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MN TO THE SD/NE            
 BORDER. VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS IL ALREADY WITH SW                 
 BREEZES 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS APPROACHING 30 MPH. TEMPS WERE IN THE           
 MID NE AND LOWER 40S SW AREAS. SUNNY SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SE IL            
 WHILE CLOUDS NE OF IL AND RACING SE. ALOFT A POTENT 515 DM 500 MB              
 CUTOFF LOW WAS OVER LAKE WINNIPEG.                                             
 RUC AND NAM/WRF BRING DEEP LOW PRESURE SE INTO LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z            
 WHILE COLD FRONT SLIDES SE TOWARD IA/IL BORDER EARLY THIS EVENING.             
 CENTRAL AND SE IL WILL STAY ON WARM SIDE OF SYSTEM TODAY WITH AMPLE            
 SUNSHINE AND STRONG SW BREEZES AND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. STILL A             
 1 TO 3 INCH SNOW COVER TO MELT NORTH OF I-70 SO AN INVERSION REMAINS           
 OVER THE SNOWFIELD AND TO KEEP TEMPS COOLER THAN WHAT COULD BE                 
 ACHIEVED IF BARE GROUND LIKE IN SE IL SINCE 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 6C.            
 STILL AFTER LOOKING AT LAPS SOUNDINGS FELT IT WAS NECESSARY TO WARM            
 HIGHS UP A DEGREE OR TWO WITH 50S JUST SW OF ILX CWFA FROM                     
 LITCHFIELD TO FLORA SW...ST LOUIS ALREADY UP TO 50F.                           
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM           
 SRN IL SOUTHWARD INTO EAST TX AND SINKING SE.  DEVELOPING WARM FRONT           
 ACROSS NEB AND CENT MO SEPARATED S/SW WINDS AND TEMPS IN 30S ACROSS            
 THE PLAINS...FROM CALM WINDS AND TEMPS IN TEENS OVER IL.  SOME FOG             
 AND LOW STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED WHERE THIS LLVL WARM ADVECTION                   
 OVERRUNS SNOWPACK IN IA.  SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR LK WINNIPEG             
 QUICKLY DROPPING SE IN CONTINUED FAST NW FLOW OVER CENTRAL CONUS.              
 POTENT SHORTWAVE NOTED ON 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS TOPPING UPPER RIDGE           
 IN NW CANADA AND DIVING THROUGH NW TERRITORIES ATTM.  FORECAST                 
 ISSUES ARE SEVERAL CHANCES OF TRACE TO LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIP AS              
 DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH IN DRY NW FLOW...AND TEMPS WITH BRIEF                
 WARMUP TODAY FOLLOWED BY SHARP COOLOFF TO BELOW NORMAL BY SECOND               
 HALF OF WEEKEND.                                                               
 SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...                                           
 STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION TODAY                
 AIDED BY SW WINDS GUSTING TO 30MPH...ADVECTING IN PLAINS THERMAL               
 RIDGE OF +5 TO +7C AT H850.  FULL EXTENT OF THIS WARMING WILL NOT BE           
 REALIZED AT THE SFC HOWEVER WHERE MELTING SNOWPACK IN PLACE LEADS TO           
 AN INVERSION AND LIKELY A FAIR AMOUNT OF STRATUS.  KEPT WITH TREND             
 OF UNDERCUTTING GUIDANCE HIGHS AND WILL GENERALLY GO WITH UPPER 30S            
 NE TO MID 40S SW...THOUGH BARE GROUND SE REGIONS COULD APPROACH                
 UPPER 40S.  SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING SE DURING THE                       
 DAY...REACHING GBG BY EARLY EVENING...AND CLEARING LWV BY 12Z.                 
 CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND SUFFICIENT LLVL MOISTURE COULD             
 LEAD TO A FEW HOURS OF DZ/FZDZ ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE                
 FRONT MAINLY SE 1/2 WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE FIELDS PRESENT.             
 THIS WILL BE A BRIEF AND VERY LIGHT EVENT...IF IT OCCURS AT ALL                
 OVERNIGHT.  INITIAL SURGE OF MODERATE STRENGTH CAA FOR SATURDAY ON             
 BRISK NW WINDS WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING                  
 TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY.  SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF MAIN SLUG OF COLD             
 AIR SLATED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT             
 AMONG SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ON PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF               
 MAIN VORT MAX...WITH UKMET/GFS KEEPING A COMPACT VORT LOBE CAPABLE             
 OF PRODUCING A SWATH OF LIGHTLY ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACROSS THE NE               
 CWA.  MEANWHILE NAM GENERATES MORE CHANNELED VORTICITY FAVORING                
 FLURRIES.  WILL LEAVE FLURRIES IN FCST AND ALLOW ANOTHER MODEL RUN             
 TO REFINE VORT PATH AND STRENGTH.  CHUNK OF -20C 850MB AIR MOVES IN            
 SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY YIELDING LOWS IN TEENS AND HIGHS IN TEENS/20S.            
 SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY WITH LINGERING HIGH LLVL             
 RH AND DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW.  SFC RIDGE TO SET UP ACROSS THE MS VALLEY           
 SUNDAY NIGHT CLEARING SKIES ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT               
 LOWS MON AM.                                                                   
 LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...                                         
 NORTHWEST FLOW TO DOMINATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY LEADING TO CONTINUED             
 NEAR/BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSING                  
 THROUGH...WITH LIGHT PRECIP CHANCE.  WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM SLATED                
 TO MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUES MORNING AND HAVE KEPT CHANCE OF           
 FLURRIES MENTIONED.  TIMING WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AS WELL AS           
 STRENGTH OF SYSTEM UNTIL NEAR EVENT GIVEN THE SCALE AND SPEED OF               
 THESE DISTURBANCES.  LATEST RUN OF MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A               
 BRIEF PERIOD OF ZONAL FLOW FOR MID-WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES                
 ACROSS THE MIDWEST.  ALSO SOME SIGNALS OF AN ATTEMPT TO PHASE                  
 NRN/SRN STREAMS FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP THREAT NEAR OR EAST OF           
 HERE MID TO LATE WEEK.  HOWEVER...NO CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDS                 
 BEYOND TUESDAY.                                                                
 &&                                                                             
 .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NONE.                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SCHAFFER                                                                       
</pre> il                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                            
 1040 AM CST THU JAN 25 2007                                                    
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 FORECAST WAS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS WITH A BIT        
 MORE CLOUD COVER ALONG AND NORTH OF I-74 AND SLIGHTLY COOLER COOLER.           
 MOST AREAS SHOULD ENJOY A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. BUT NW BREEZES OVER A 1            
 TO 3 INCH SNOW COVER (THOUGH LESS THAN 1 INCH IN SE IL) TO GIVE                
 TEMPS ABOUT FIVE DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL. HIGHS RANGING FROM MID            
 20S NORTH ALONG I-74 TO AROUND 30F IN SE IL FROM I-70 SOUTH.                   
 16Z/10 AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS 1031 MB POLAR HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING           
 FROM WEST TEXAS ACROSS NW MO INTO CENTRAL IOWA AND UPPER MS VALLEY.            
 NEARLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL IL WITH PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS OF 3             
 TO 3.5 KFT OVER NORTHERN KNOX...STARK AND MARSHALL COUNTIES AND                
 DRIFTING SLOWLY SE WHILE PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS OF 2 TO 3 KFT IN SE             
 IL NEAR FLORA. GALESBURG AND ALTONA HAD LIGHT SNOW CRYSTALS WITH               
 CLEAR BLUE SKIES EARLIER THIS MORNING. NW WINDS 7 TO 15 MPH EXCEPT             
 LIGHT WEST OF I-55 CLOSER TO HIGH PRESSURE IN MO/IA. TEMPS RANGE               
 FROM 14F IN GALESBURG TO 29F IN LAWRENCEVILLE. ALOFT A 499 DM 500 MB           
 CUTOFF POLAR VORTEX LOW WAS JUST EAST OF JAMES BAY CANADA WITH A               
 DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE            
 OVER THE ROCKIES.                                                              
 RUC AND NAM/WRF BUILD HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE MID AND LOWER MS VALLEY           
 THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS IN WESTERN IL MOVING INTO EASTERN IL             
 AROUND SUNSET. CURULE SHOWS SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS OVER NE AREAS THIS            
 AFTERNOON WHERE SKIES COULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY FROM I-74 NORTH.               
 SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ELSEWHERE. RUC AND NAM/WRF SIMILAR WITH            
 HIGHS AROUND 21Z RANGING FROM NEAR 25F FROM I-74 NORTH TO AROUND 30F           
 FAR SW CWFA WITH FLORA AND LAWRENCEVILLE AROUND FREEZING.                      
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW EXTENDING FROM            
 CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO MIDWEST.  WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND               
 POLAR VORTEX CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY PRODUCING QUICK MOVING LIGHT             
 BOUTS OF PRECIP.  LITTLE IN THE WAY OF HEIGHT RISE/FALLS ON 500MB              
 CHARTS INDICATIVE OF STABLE LONGWAVE PATTERN.  AT THE SFC...HIGH               
 PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM WESTERN ONTARIO DOWN THROUGH SRN ROCKIES LOOKS         
 TO BUILD EASTWARD TODAY AS BROAD AREA OF PRESSURE RISES EXTENDS INTO           
 THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  CLEARING SKIES OVER NW CWA HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS         
 TO DIP INTO LOW TEENS THIS MORNING WITH AMPLE SNOWCOVER.  MAIN FORECAST        
 CONCERNS ARE LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES OVER NEXT FEW DAYS AS MINOR                  
 DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE AREA IN FAST/DRY NW FLOW...AND TEMPS THROUGH THE         
 PERIOD WITH THE ARCTIC BEING TAPPED BY THIS WEEKEND.                           
 SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...                                           
 HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE DOWN MO VALLEY TODAY WITH EASTERN FLANK OF THIS         
 FEATURE KEEPING LOCAL AREA IN ZONE OF NW BREEZES THROUGH THE DAY.  WILL        
 BANK ON SUBSIDENCE FROM 1030MB HIGH AND DRYING LOW LEVELS TO GIVE A            
 MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...THOUGH WITH SNOWPACK EXPECT ANOTHER SEASONABLY COOL         
 DAY WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  THIS HIGH IS PROGGED TO            
 QUICKLY SETTLE INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING AS NEXT LOW          
 DIVES INTO NRN GREAT LAKES.  THIS WILL LEAVE THE AREA IN A TIGHTENING          
 PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALSO DRAW PLAINS-STATES THERMAL RIDGE INTO THE           
 REGION BY AFTERNOON ON STRONG SW WINDS.  FACTORS HINDERING A GOOD              
 WARMUP INCLUDE SNOW ON THE GROUND AND RESULTING LLVL INVERSION WHICH           
 COULD TRAP MOISTURE INTO A SCT/BKN STRATUS TYPE CLOUD FIELD.  HAVE             
 UNDERCUT GUIDANCE...BUT HIGHS TO STILL REACH ABOVE NORMAL...MAINLY MID         
 30S NE TO AROUND 40 SW...AND SNOW-FREE GROUND SOUTH OF I-70 COULD PUSH         
 L/M 40S.  THE FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE         
 REGION ON FRIDAY EVENING BACKING WINDS AROUND TO THE NW AND STARTING           
 THE CAA PATTERN. MAIN DYNAMICS AND CONVERGENCE FOR PRECIP WILL REMAIN          
 WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES.  HOWEVER...A BRIEF PERIOD          
 OF WEAK FORCING SHOULD MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT POSSIBLY PRODUCING TRACE         
 AMOUNTS...UP TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID                                  
 DZ/FZDZ.                                                                       
 LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...                                       
 IMPORTANT LONG WAVE PATTERN CHANGE WILL TAKE PLACE FRIDAY AND                  
 SATURDAY...AS AN UPPER LOW TOPS RIDGE IN NW CANADA AND PHASES WITH             
 POLAR VORTEX OVER JAMES BAY.  THIS WILL HELP TO DRIVE THE UPPER LEVEL          
 FLOW OUT OF THE ARCTIC...SOUTHWARD INTO THE MIDWEST.  MAIN COLD PUNCH          
 TO ARRIVE SATURDAY EVENING BEHIND SECONDARY FRONT/TROUGH. AGAIN LITTLE         
 MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BUT SOME FLURRIES COULD BE SQUEEZED OUT.  850MB          
 TEMPS EXPECTED TO PLUMMET INTO A -15 TO -20C RANGE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT          
 AND SUNDAY YIELDING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS DEPENDING ON            
 CLOUD COVER...AND HIGHS IN UPPER TEENS/LOWER 20S.  WITH CYCLONIC FLOW          
 AND CAA CANNOT RULE OUT SOME FLURRIES ON SUNDAY AS RH REMAINS HIGH             
 BELOW 800MB.  CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST MONDAY        
 BRINGING NEXT CHANCE OF LIGHT/ACCUMULATING SNOWS BUT THESE DETAILS WILL        
 BE HARD TO PIN DOWN UNTIL NEARER THE EVENT GIVEN FAST NW FLOW ALOFT.           
 NO CHANGES MADE BEYOND MONDAY...BUT HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN TO                
 CONTINUE WITH PRIMARILY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA.                          
 &&                                                                             
 .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NONE.                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 HUETTL/SCHAFFER                                                                
</pre> il                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN                                       
 1225 AM EST THU JAN 25 2007                                                    
 .AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS                                        
 A FLOW OF UNSTABLE AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BE OVER INDIANA FOR             
 MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH           
 INDIANA FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN AREA OF               
 SNOW WITH IT. CONDITIONS WILL START OUT AS MVFR. AFTER 08Z CEILINGS            
 WILL DECREASE TO IFR WITH VISIBILITIES REMAINING MVFR. THIS                    
 DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF INDIANA BY 13Z ENDING THE SNOW. WITH            
 LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING MVFR CEILING WITH VFR VISIBILITIES WILL           
 OCCUR FOR MOST OF THE DAY. AFTER 22Z HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO             
 INDIANA. DRIER AND MOST STABLE AIR WILL MOVE IN AFTER 00Z GIVING               
 CLEAR SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.                                     
 &&                                                                             
 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...                                          
 MAIN SHORT TERM FOCUS WILL BE ON SNOW CHANCES LATER TONIGHT INTO               
 THURSDAY. SATELLITE SHOWS LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION.                
 ALTHOUGH SEVERAL HOLES WERE OCCURRING OVER WESTERN INDIANA AND                 
 ILLINOIS. RUC AND WATER VAPOR INDICATE A S/W OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA.           
 NAM/GFS INTENSIFY THIS S/W AS IT MOVS SOUTH TOWARDS THE MID                    
 MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. NAM GIVES SEVERAL HUNDRETHS OF                
 PRECIP LATE TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WHILE GFS HOLDS OFF ON              
 PRECIP UNTIL IT MOVES PAST INDIANA. WILL MOVE TOWARD CONSENSUS AND             
 PUT A 30 POP FOR THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA AS IT LOOKS LIKE SOME              
 MEASURABLE PRECIP LOOKS POSSIBLE.                                              
 AFTER S/W MOVS BY FLOW BECOME MORE NNW 850 MB TEMPERATUERS DROP TO             
 -16 CELSIUS. THIS SHOULD RESLUT IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS             
 NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOME OF THIS SHOULD MOVE INTO OUR NORTHEAST               
 COUNTIES FROM KOKOMO AREA EASTWARD. MET/MAV TEMPERATURES ARE PRETTY            
 CLOSE AND SEEM REASONABLE BASED ON TEMPERATUERS UPSTREAM TODAY.                
 &&                                                                             
 .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...THE LONG TERM PERIOD             
 WILL CONSIST OF A SERIES OF CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEMS EVERY FEW DAYS.               
 THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE MAINLY WITH MOISTURE AND QPF                 
 AMOUNTS BUT MOSTLY AGREE ON UPPER FEATURES.  AT THIS POINT NONE OF             
 THESE SYSTEMS APPEAR TO PRODUCE LARGE SNOW AMOUNTS AND INDIVIDUALLY            
 WILL PROBABLY STAY AROUND AN INCH MAYBE SLIGHTLY OVER OR UNDER.                
 WILL USE A BLEND.                                                              
 THURSDAY NIGHT...AS UPPER SYSTEM CLEARS THE STATE SOME LINGERING               
 PRECIP IS POSSIBLE COURTESY OF LAKE MICHIGAN.  HAVE PUT SOME CHANCE            
 POPS IN THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.  AFTER                 
 MIDNIGHT MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD HAVE CLEARED THE AREA.  VERY COLD           
 H85 TEMPS DIP INTO THE -10 TO -14C RANGE AND WITH SNOW ON THE GROUND           
 OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS.                                           
 FRIDAY...CENTRAL INDIANA IS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND WILL REMAIN DRY.            
 DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S AND LOWS IN THE MID              
 20S.                                                                           
 SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY AND             
 WILL GENERATE SOME PRECIP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  ITS POSSIBLE              
 THAT SOMETIME ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL WARM ENOUGH FOR                 
 PRECIP TO BE RAIN INSTEAD OF SNOW BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH SNOW UNTIL            
 GFS/NAM COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TEMPS.  AS THE COLD FRONT              
 PASSES WE GET A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WHICH WILL PUT LOWS               
 BACK IN THE TEENS.  ON SATURDAY NIGHT AN H5 WAVE PASSES THROUGH AND            
 WILL KEEP CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST.                                      
 SUNDAY...ANOTHER UPPER WAVE FOLLOWS SATURDAYS COLD FRONT.  THIS                
 ROUND WILL AGAIN DROP SOUTH FROM MN/WI AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF              
 SNOW.  WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION SKIES WILL BE LOW OVERCAST WITH              
 SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THE DAY.  AS THE SYSTEM EXITS WILL           
 HANG ON TO CHANCE POPS IN THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE CWA.                          
 MONDAY...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER IN BETWEEN DAY WITH RELATIVELY DRY                 
 CONDITIONS AND COLD TEMPS.  THE GFS DEVELOPS A SFC LOW OVER SW                 
 MISSOURI ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVES IT ESE THROUGH THE EVENING.             
 THIS COULD BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIP TO CENTRAL INDIANA.  WILL NOT              
 RAISE POPS FOR THIS TIME BUT WILL KEEP CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE SINCE             
 ITS LIKELY TIMING/STRENGTH WILL DIFFER IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.               
 TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...EACH DAY WILL BE DRY AND COLD AS HIGH                  
 PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS MOVES SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THEN EAST            
 TOWARDS THE COAST.                                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                       
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 AVIATION...HAINES                                                              
 SHORT TERM...JH/SALLY                                                          
 LONG TERM...SALLY                                                              
</pre> in                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL                                     
 950 PM CST FRI JAN 26 2007                                                     
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING...LOW CLOUDS             
 ARE JUST NOT FORMING AS MODELS RUNS HAD EARLIER INDICATED WOULD.               
 NAM AND RUC MODEL 925-950MB RH INDICATING THAT WE SHOULD HAVE HAD              
 SOME LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT                
 MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING...BUT THIS SIMPLY HAS NOT                 
 MATERIALIZED.  THE GFS IS USELES...THE LOW LEVEL RH IS TOO HIGH                
 COMPARED TO THIS EVENINGS SOUNDING...AND IT HAS EVEN MORE LOW CLOUDS           
 THAN THE OTHER TWO MODELS.  THUS...HAVE PULLED THE CLOUD COVER FOR             
 OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FROM THE FORECAST AREA.  WE ARE GOING TO HAVE TO             
 WAIT UNTIL THE CLOUD MASS NOW OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA              
 MOVES DOWN INTO THE FORECAST AREA.  AT THE CURRENT RATE...IT SHOULD            
 GET DOWN TO AROUND KDBQ AROUND 10Z...TO THE QUAD CITIES BY 14Z...AND           
 THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA BY 18Z.  THIS IS MUCH FASTER THAN THE MODEL             
 RH PROGS WOULD IMPLY...SO THIS FORECAST IS MORE OF A NOWCAST.  AS              
 FOR EFFECTS ON TEMPERATURES...WITH THE WINDS STAYING UP BEHIND THE             
 SURFACE FRONT WE SHOULD NOT HAVE TOO MUCH RADIATIONAL EFFECTS TO BE            
 CONCERNED ABOUT SO HAVE ONLY LOWERED MIN TEMPS TONIGHT A SMIDGE.               
 THE EXTRA SUNSHINE IN THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING SHOULD HELP BOOST              
 TEMPERATURES A LITTLE MORE...SO TWEAKED UP THE MAX TEMP SLIGHTLY.              
 WILL LET THE MID CREW TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS AS THERE IS SOME               
 POTENTIAL FOR MID 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE THE SUN LASTS THE                 
 LONGEST.                                                                       
 &&                                                                             
 .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 IA...NONE.                                                                     
 IL...NONE.                                                                     
 MO...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 LE                                                                             
</pre> ia                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                            
 320 PM CST FRI JAN 26 2007                                                     
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE TIMING OF              
 WHEN THE COLD FRONT IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA WILL REACH OUR FORECAST               
 AREA THIS EVENING AND THEN HOW THE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF WEST TEXAS             
 WILL AFFECT OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT. THE NEXT ISSUE WILL BE              
 THE TIMING OF THE WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA NEXT WEEK.                         
 TONIGHT:                                                                       
 LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS CERTAINLY SHOWS WHAT A DIFFERENCE SNOW COVER           
 CAN MAKE. CURRENTLY TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 50S IN PRATT AND               
 MEDICINE LODGE WITH MID 40S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. 20Z SURFACE             
 ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS A DECENT WIND SHIFT LINE PUSHING THROUGH                   
 SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COOLING IS TAKING PLACE              
 BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE MID 40S. THE               
 DEEPER COLDER AIR STILL LOOKS LIKE IT IS LURKING IN CANADA. THE                
 LATEST RUC BRINGS THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING            
 AND SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BOUNDARY            
 WILL DEVELOP A BETTER THERMAL GRADIENT AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AS              
 THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN WEST TEXAS MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS WAVE            
 WILL HELP ENHANCE THE LIFT AND FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY               
 MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS TONIGHT. THE ONLY             
 CONCERN IS THE MOISTURE. WE ARE NOT TOO KEEN ON HOW THE MODELS ARE             
 HANDLING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LATELY. THE REASON FOR THIS IS  THE            
 MODELS SEEM TO BE OVERESTIMATING DEWPOINTS DURING THE EVENING AND              
 OVERNIGHT. THE REASON COULD BE DUE TO LATENT HEAT EFFECTS OF                   
 DEPOSITION WHICH WILL CAUSE OUR DEWPOINTS TO LOWER THIS EVENING AS             
 WELL. SOUTHEAST KANSAS LOOKS LIKE IT HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME              
 LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN SINCE THEY HAVE BEEN HAVING A                
 LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE AND THEY MAY SEE MORE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH              
 THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POCKET. THE AREA OF LIFT LOOKS PRETTY                     
 GOOD...BUT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN AT THE LOW LEVELS IT WILL BE A             
 BRIEF EVENT (<6 HOURS).                                                        
 SATURDAY:                                                                      
 WE SHOULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES DURING THE                           
 MORNING...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES...BUT IT WILL BE RATHER BREEZY.           
 COULD STILL SEE SOME MELTING TOMORROW AS WELL.                                 
 SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT:                                                  
 THE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO ADVERTISE US IN A NORTHWEST FLOW                  
 REGIME THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS ENSEMBLES/ECMWF/UKMET                
 ARE ALSO IN FAIRLY SIMILAR AGREEMENT IN BRINGING ANOTHER                       
 REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR INTO THE FORECAST ARE ON MONDAY AND             
 MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED.                   
 THEREFORE...WE WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY POPS AT THIS TIME.                       
 WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY:                                                              
 WE DID NOT MAKE MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS POINT...BUT THE               
 MODELS ARE HINTING AT A DECENT WAVE MOVING DOWN THE NORTHERN                   
 PLAINS AND PUSHING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.              
 THIS FEATURE WILL SEND ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION             
 AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR DECENT                   
 ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AFTER THIS BOUNDARY PASSES                
 THROUGH. THIS IS REFLECTED MORE FROM THE ECMWF...BUT WE WILL HAVE              
 TO WATCH LATER RUNS TO SEE HOW THAT PANS OUT.                                  
 COX                                                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 WICHITA-KICT    25  35  16  33 /  10  10   0   0                               
 HUTCHINSON      24  35  15  33 /  10  10   0   0                               
 NEWTON          25  35  15  31 /  10  10   0   0                               
 ELDORADO        25  35  15  32 /  10  10   0   0                               
 WINFIELD-KWLD   26  36  17  34 /  20  20  10   0                               
 RUSSELL         20  33  12  31 /   0  10   0   0                               
 GREAT BEND      22  34  14  32 /   0  10   0   0                               
 SALINA          22  34  14  30 /   0  10   0   0                               
 MCPHERSON       24  35  15  31 /  10  10   0   0                               
 COFFEYVILLE     28  38  16  32 /  30  30   0   0                               
 CHANUTE         27  36  15  31 /  20  20   0   0                               
 IOLA            26  36  15  31 /  20  20   0   0                               
 PARSONS-KPPF    28  37  16  32 /  20  30   0   0                               
 &&                                                                             
 .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NONE.                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> ks                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                           
 245 AM MST THU JAN 25 2007                                                     
 .DISCUSSION...FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL HOW WARM IT GETS TODAY...                 
 MAXES ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HOW MUCH IS THE COOL DOWN ON              
 SATURDAY...AND A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY             
 NIGHT. SATELLITE CONTINUING TO SHOW THE FLOW BECOMING MORE                     
 AMPLIFIED FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA. FLOW IS                 
 BLOCKED UP OVER THE ATLANTICE.                                                 
 STRONG SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND HAS                
 PUMPED UP THE RIDGE BEHIND THE TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST.              
 SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH BECOMING MORE CUTOFF WITH NORTHERN              
 PORTION CRASHING INTO THE RIDGE. BROAD AND DRY RIDGE HAS BUILT OVER            
 THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. SOUTHERN PORTION OF EASTERN TROUGH            
 HAS CUT OFF OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INTIALIZED             
 FINE. HOWEVER...THERE WAS NOT A LOT OF SAMPLING WITH TROUGH                    
 APPROACHING THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.                                     
 AT MID LEVELS...SATELLITE SHOWING MODELS ARE IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT           
 WITH ALL THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. REALLY ONLY ONE AREA WHERE             
 MODELS MAY BE A LITTLE OFF. THIS IS WITH THE LOW OFF THE NORTHERN              
 CALIFORNIA COAST. INITIALLY THEY MAY NOT HAVE BEEN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH            
 WITH THE CENTER. THEN THE GFS/UKMET ARE TOO FAR SOUTH WITH IT. THE             
 NGM/NAM/RUC ARE RIGHT ON WITH THE CENTER.                                      
 AT LOW LEVELS...THE RUC13/NAM/ECMWF WERE HANDLING THE LEE TROUGH               
 BETTER WITH THE RUC13/NAM NEARLY THE SAME WITH TIME. OVER THE AREA             
 AND TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...THE NAM/ECMWF WERE DOING A            
 LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REST. THE UKMET WAS NOT TOO FAR BEHIND.                 
 MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH EVOLUTION OF WHAT IS GOING TO               
 HAPPEN ALONG THE WEST COAST AT UPPER LEVELS BUT ARE NOT TOO BAD                
 FURTHER DOWNSTREAM. BASED ON RECENT PERFORMANCE AND CONSISTENCY...             
 WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS. WILL TREND MORE TOWARD THE UKMET AT            
 MID/UPPER LEVELS...NAM/RUC13 AT LOWER LEVELS FOR BETTER INITIAL                
 HANDLING OF LEE SIDE TROUGHING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...AND                   
 PERSISTANCE WITH THE TEMPERATURES.                                             
 TODAY/TONIGHT...WILL BE NO CLOUD COVER TODAY WITH BROAD RIDGE AND NO           
 LIFT IN PLACE. MODELS ARE SHOWING THE SURFACE WINDS FOR THE DAY IN             
 MORE NORTHWEST DIRECTION THAN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS WHICH HAD            
 WINDS CLOSER TO SOUTHWEST. WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE 2 METERS/SOUNDINGS          
 WHICH HAVE BEEN DOING THE BEST WITH THE SNOW FIELD IN PLACE. THIS              
 MEANS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE. WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS               
 DURING THE NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES             
 POTENTIALLY IN THE EAST.                                                       
 FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...OVERNIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MAKE FOR A             
 RATHER WARM START TO THE DAY. MODELS DIFFER ON ARRIVAL TIME OF FRONT.          
 NAM HAS SLOWED 3 TO 6 HOURS FROM YESTERDAY AND IS SIMILAR TO THE               
 RUC13. THIS MEANS NOT BRINGING THE FRONT INTO THE NORTHWEST UNTIL              
 THE 15Z TO 18Z TIME FRAME. UKMET/GFS ARE ABOUT THE SAME AND IN THE             
 MIDDLE OF THE BUNCH. THE ECMWF IS THE FASTEST AND SIMILAR TO                   
 YESTERDAYS TIMING. THE NAM IS WARMEST AT 18Z. DESPITE THE SIMILAR              
 TIMING...THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING THE COLD AIR              
 THAN THE UKMET. AND DESPITE THE TIMING DIFFERENCE...THE NAM AND                
 ECMWF ARE ABOUT THE SAME BY 00Z. FRONTS HAVE A NACK IN COMING IN               
 FASTER IN THIS SCENARIO. DID A SLIGHT TWEEK UP...ESPECIALLY IN                 
 EASTERN AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS WHERE WILL HAVE THE WARMEST START               
 AND LATEST FROPA. STILL TENDED TO STAY BELOW THE COOLEST NUMERICAL             
 GUIDANCE AND CLOSE TO THE NAM 2 METER TEMPERATURES. NOT SURE ABOUT             
 CLOUD COVER DURING THE NIGHT...BUT MINS MAY NEED TO BE COOLED MORE.            
 SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...COLD AIR MASS IS POURING IN. COOLED OFF              
 MAXES SOME AND CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...                   
 MAY NEED TO COOL OFF THESE MORE THAN I HAVE. MOISTURE AND LIFT                 
 INCREASE IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST                 
 FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT...AND MOISTURE RESIDE              
 IN COLORADO. HOWEVER...THETA E LAPSE RATES ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE.            
 ALSO...THE NAM HAS PULLED THE BEST MOISTURE A LITTLE FURTHER WEST ON           
 THE 06Z RUN. SOME UPLSOPE LOOKS TO OCCUR IN THE FAR WEST AS WELL.              
 ALSO DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU CHOOSE...THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF          
 THE JET STARTS AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. THE               
 GFS/UKMET ARE MORE FAVORABLE WITH THE NAM FURTHERN NORTH. THIS LIFT            
 LASTS TO BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z DURING THE NIGHT.                                 
 SO INTRODUCE FLURRIES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE FAR WEST AND          
 SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE            
 ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE.                                                       
 AT THIS TIME...NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR DAYS 4 AND 5. THANKS TO ALL              
 FOR THE COLLABORATION.                                                         
 &&                                                                             
 .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 KS...NONE.                                                                     
 NE...NONE.                                                                     
 CO...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 BULLER                                                                         
</pre> ks                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                            
 922 PM CST FRI JAN 26 2007                                                     
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 CLOUDS HAVE STILL YET TO MATERIALIZE ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING               
 INTO NW MISSOURI AT 03Z. RUC MODEL REMAINS AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW LEVEL           
 MOISTENING OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY RH FIELDS AT AND BELOW 925 MB.               
 MODEL RH FROM MOST MODELS DOES NOT SEEM A RELIABLE INDICATOR OF LOW            
 CLOUDS TONIGHT. BACKED OFF ON FORECAST CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. POST                  
 FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE SATURDAY.                                   
 BUMPED TEMPS UP JUST A DEGREE OR TWO OVERNIGHT AS READINGS ARE NOT             
 FALLING AS QUICKLY AS MODELS OR GRIDDED FORECASTS INDICATED. BRISK             
 SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT.                      
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE GULF                
 COAST...WITH A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM WISCONSIN...ACROSS NW IOWA             
 TO ERN NEBRASKA AND WRN KANSAS. SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS A LARGE                
 PART OF THE NATION/S MID SECTION. THE CLOSEST OBSERVED CLOUD COVER             
 OF CONCERN...WAS OVER TX AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SEEN SPINNING             
 OVER WEST TX. SO FOR TONIGHT...WILL START OFF FREE OF CLOUD COVER.             
 THEN...FROM ABOUT MIDNIGHT ON...WILL INCREASE CLOUDS WITH THE                  
 APPROACH OF BOTH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL LOW. A                 
 DECENT PRES GRADIENT SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT. SO WE                
 EXPECT TEMPS TO STAY UP A BIT TONIGHT. USED A BLEND OF FWC/MAV/MET             
 MOS.                                                                           
 WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AS THE                    
 ARCTIC FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...COINCIDENT WITH REMNANT                 
 UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOC WITH DAMPENING UPPER WAVE THAT WILL MOVE              
 ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION FROM THE SOUTHERN                   
 PLAINS. PRECIP TYPE SHOULD BE RAIN INITIALLY. CAA AND LOWERING OF              
 FREEZING LVL HEIGHTS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH MAY CHANGE THE PRECIP                 
 OVER TO SOME LIGHT SNOW BEFORE THE MOISTURE DEPARTS. CANNOT RULE               
 OUT A BIT OF SLEET AS WELL. HOWEVER...QPF REMAINS LIGHT...AND THE              
 MOISTURE AND FORCING DEPART FAIRLY QUICKLY SAT EVENING. THUS WE DO             
 NOT EXPECT THIS EVENT TO BE OF MUCH CONCERN. WILL GO WITH MIDDAY               
 HIGHS...AND SHOW TEMPS FALLING A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE              
 OF THE FRONT.                                                                  
 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER SUNDAY. SHOULD BE                
 A FAIRLY COLD DAY WITH AN AIRMASS OF ARCTIC ORIGIN ACROSS THE                  
 FA. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH OR BARELY EXCEED 30 DEGREES.                  
 WE CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE EVV TRI-STATE.                    
 WILL STAY IN NW FLOW PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT                 
 IN PERIODIC CLOUDINESS AND TEMPS AT OR BELOW NORMAL. LONGWAVE                  
 PATTERN TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CONUS MID TO LATE WEEK. THE MODELS                
 HAVE HAD ISSUES HANDLING TIMING AND INTENSITY OF FEATURES MOVING               
 ALONG IN THE MID TROP. KEPT POPS LOW CHANCE CATEGORY MID TO LATE               
 WEEK...UNTIL THE MODELS CAN LOCK INTO A SOLUTION. WILL KEEP THE                
 PRECIP TYPE AS SNOW FOR NOW AS THE COLD AIR SHOULD STILL BE IN                 
 PLACE.                                                                         
 &&                                                                             
 .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 KY...NONE.                                                                     
 MO...NONE.                                                                     
 IL...NONE.                                                                     
 IN...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 UPDATE...MY                                                                    
 PREV DISC...CN                                                                 
</pre> ky                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                         
 1230 AM EST THU JAN 25 2007                                                    
 .AVIATION (06Z TAFS)...                                                        
 MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IS AREA OF SNOW DROPPING              
 SOUTH OUT OF INDIANA. THIS SNOW WILL AFFECT SDF AND LEX TERMINALS              
 THE MOST...PRIMARILY BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z. BWG WILL CATCH A FEW                 
 FLURRIES FROM IT BUT THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT IT THERE. CEILINGS AND               
 VISIBILITIES WILL GO MVFR...AND DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE SNOW                  
 SHOWERS AT SDF AND LEX WILL LIKELY DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW 2000 FEET.              
 AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROF RESPONSIBLE FOR THESE SNOW SHOWERS               
 MOVES TO OUR EAST THE SNOW SHOULD EXIT AS WELL...BY MIDMORNING. WITH           
 HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE WEST SKIES WILL MOSTLY CLEAR BY               
 LATE MORNING AT SDF AND BWG. WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS IN AT LEX LONGER             
 AS THE MOISTURE TAKES A BIT MORE TIME TO SCOUR OUT OF THAT AREA IN             
 THESE NORTHWEST FLOW SITUATIONS PLUS SOME CLOUD ENHANCEMENT COMING             
 OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.                                                             
 BY LATE AFTERNOON CLOUDS SHOULD BE GONE AND CLEAR SKIES WILL                   
 CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.                                                     
 WINDS COULD GET A BIT GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH TODAY AS THE GRADIENT             
 TIGHTENS.                                                                      
 13                                                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .EVENING UPDATE...                                                             
 UPDATED EVENING FORECAST TO REFLECT CLOUD TRENDS. ALBERTA CLIPPER              
 CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE CURRENTLY OVER WISCONSIN               
 WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD AND MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY TOMORROW.           
 MOISTURE IS LACKING AND AIR REMAINS UNSATURATED ABOVE 800 MB                   
 ACCORDING TO NAM CROSS SECTIONS. HOWEVER...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION           
 WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST EARLY TOMORROW. AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES                 
 STEEPEN...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS              
 EASTERN INDIANA...AND MOVE ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HAVE              
 PUSHED BACK THE POSSIBLE ONSET OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS           
 TO CORRESPOND WITH COLDER AIR`S ARRIVAL. SOME LIGHT LOCALIZED                  
 ACCUMULATIONS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS REGION UNDER THE             
 HEAVIER SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH TOMORROW...AS                 
 BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AS COLDER AIR            
 ARRIVES. JSD                                                                   
 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THURSDAY)...                                              
 DUE TO CLIPPER SYSTEM...NE SECTIONS OF THE LMK CWA SAW MEASURABLE              
 SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A FEW TENTHS TO            
 NEARLY 1.5 INCHES. NUMEROUS TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS OCCURRED DURING THE              
 MORNING COMMUTE. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING...MELTING              
 NEARLY ALL THE SNOW PER WEBCAMS. POWERFUL JET STREAK OVERHEAD                  
 TODAY...EARLIER 737 AIRCRAFT OBSERVATION AT FL380 NEAR SDF                     
 INDICATED A 183KT WESTERLY WIND (AND MODERATE TURBULENCE).                     
 FOCUS FOR THIS PERIOD IS ON YET ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM FCST TO ROLL            
 THOUGH THE DISTRICT THURSDAY. CURRENTLY FEATURE IS POSITIONED OVER             
 WRN SECTIONS OF ONTARIO...AND IS FCST TO DROP QUICKLY FROM SRN                 
 INDIANA AT 12Z/THU INTO ERN KY BY 18Z/THU. AHEAD OF THIS UPPER WAVE            
 FCST SOUNDINGS FROM GFS/NAM SHOW STEEPENING LAPSE RATES LATE TONIGHT           
 AND THURSDAY WITH SATURATION INTO THE CRITICAL ICE CRYSTAL                     
 GENERATION LAYERS OVER NE 1/3 OF THE CWA...THOUGH GFS IS LESS                  
 AGGRESSIVE WITH SATURATION AS COMPARED TO THE NAM. SCT SHSN ARE                
 EXPECTED OVER THE NRN/ERN ZONES FROM ROUGHLY 8Z TONIGHT THROUGH 15Z            
 THURSDAY MORNING.                                                              
 WE WILL GO WITH 30-40% POPS FOR THIS AREA...LESSER VALUES OVER                 
 REMAINDER OF CWA INCLUDING MOST OF SRN KY...WHERE ONLY FLURRIES WILL           
 BE MENTIONED. BUFKIT DIAGNOSTICS FROM WETTER NAM PRODUCE AROUND 0.5            
 INCH OF SNOWFALL FROM MADISON INDIANA SE INTO THE FFT/LEX AREAS...             
 WITH AROUND 0.25 INCH AT SDF. THESE VALUES SEEM REASONABLE...THOUGH            
 THEY WILL BE LOCALIZED DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE SNOW SHOWERS                 
 DEVELOP. AN SPS WILL BE ISSUED FOR OUR FAR NE COUNTIES HIGHLIGHTING            
 POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW...AND SIMILAR IN NATURE TO THIS MORNINGS               
 ACTIVITY...IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO AFFECT THE MORNING DRIVE TOMORROW.          
 IN THE MEANTIME...CURRENT AREA OF LOW CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO                    
 DISSIPATE AND/OR SLIDE SE SUCH THAT SKIES WILL GO PARTLY CLOUDY OR             
 MOSTLY CLEAR OVER MUCH OF THE CWA FROM LATE AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING.           
 THEN TOWARD 6Z LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS DEPICT CLOUDS RAPIDLY INCREASING            
 INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. REGARDING TEMPERATURES...HAVE FOLLOWED               
 LATEST RUC PROJECTIONS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW GIVEN IT`S RECENT              
 GOOD PERFORMANCE. THIS YIELDS VERY SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS TONIGHT INTO           
 THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S...WITH NEAR STEADY READINGS THURSDAY.                  
 STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY...BUFKIT              
 SUGGESTING GUSTS TO 20KTS OR SO POSSIBLE AND HAVE FOLLOWED THIS.               
 CS                                                                             
 .LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...                                       
 THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...                                                   
 COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL IN IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS                   
 FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE 8H ISOTHERM AT 00Z FRIDAY SOUTH OF THE                
 FORECAST AREA. THIS IS IN THE WAKE OF A CLIPPER MOVING TO OUR                  
 SOUTHEAST. THIS CAA WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM             
 BEGINS TO DROP SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL               
 BACK AND INCREASE FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE              
 THROUGH THE AREA. BY 00Z SATURDAY H8 TEMPS WILL HAVE WARMED TO THE             
 FREEZING MARK. SO AFTER A CLEAR AND COLD THURSDAY NIGHT...FRIDAY               
 WILL BE BREEZY AND WARMER.                                                     
 TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING WILL START OUT IN THE LOWER 20S BUT WITH           
 THE WARMING READINGS WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER AND MID 40S BY                   
 AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN              
 THE 30S WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.                                                
 SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                                  
 A GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN                
 PLACE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT           
 ON BRINGING SEVERAL DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE FLOW WHICH WILL BRING             
 SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO THE AREA AS WELL AS                      
 REINFORCING COLD AIR.                                                          
 THE FIRST WAVE WILL SHARPEN UP SATURDAY AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE             
 REGION SUNDAY. WITH BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING             
 TROUGH ENOUGH WARM AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TO PRODUCE LIGHT            
 RAIN SATURDAY. COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY                
 SATURDAY NIGHT SO ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM             
 OF SNOW. WE WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY BUT IF WE SEE            
 PERSISTENCE IN THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM POPS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED                 
 ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.                    
 A SECOND WAVE WILL DIG INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH SOME VARIATION             
 IN THE MODELS ON THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH. FOR NOW WE WILL FOLLOW             
 THE GFS AND KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY.                                        
 THE INITIAL SHOT OF COLD AIR SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES             
 INTO THE 20S AND LOW 30S SUNDAY AND INTO THE TEENS AND 20S MONDAY              
 WITH A SLIGHT WARM UP TUESDAY. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTED               
 AGAIN WEDNESDAY AS THE SECOND CLIPPER MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST.                  
 --JA                                                                           
 &&                                                                             
 .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 KY...NONE.                                                                     
 IN...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> ky                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA                                         
 305 AM EST FRI JAN 26 2007                                                     
 .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                         
 WITH NAM AND RUC MODEL RUNS CONTINUING TO SHOW LOW LEVEL WINDS                 
 BACKING INTO THE WEST THIS MORNING...AND THEN SOUTHWEST LATER                  
 TODAY, LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING WESTERN                    
 PENNSYLVANIA WILL DISSIPATE BY DAYBREAK.                                       
 THE ASSOCIATED WARMING WITH THE CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION (WARM                 
 FRONT) WILL OCCUR MORE ALOFT, HENCE EXPECT STABILIZATION ABOVE THE             
 BOUNDARY LAYER, PARTICULARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS                  
 STABILITY ALOFT IS FORTUNATE BECAUSE THERE WILL BE STRONG                      
 ISENTROPIC LIFT WITHIN THAT LAYER. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE EFFECTS OF             
 THE LIFT, DYNAMICALLY AND MICROPHYSICALLY (AS TEMPERATURES IN THIS             
 LAYER MAY BE WARMER THAN M10C RESTRICTING ICE NUCLEATION), AND DUE             
 TO THE LOW LEVEL DRYNESS, ANY SNOW CRYSTALS THAT DO FORM MAY                   
 EVAPORATE PRIOR TO REACHING THE GROUND. HOWEVER DYNAMICS WITH                  
 ADVANCING WARM FRONT ARE SUFFICIENT TO ESCALATE POPS OVER THE                  
 EASTERN ZONES BACK TO CHANCE NUMBERS BY THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH               
 WORDING WILL BE FOR LIGHT SNOW WITH MINIMAL/NO ACCUMULATION.                   
 &&                                                                             
 .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                      
 CONTINUE TO EXPECT THE COLD UPPER LOW TO REMAIN OVER EASTERN CANADA            
 THIS WEEK, AS INDICATED BY RECENT GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS. THIS               
 WILL RESULT IN THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL ARCTIC-TYPE COLD FRONTS                  
 THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS COMING WEEK. SO ALTHOUGH SATURDAY           
 WILL EXHIBIT WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES, EXPECT A RENEWAL OF              
 COLDER TEMPERATURES STARTING SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL                 
 PASSAGE, WITH TEMPERATURES PERHAPS A LITTLE COLDER THAN WHAT GFS MOS           
 VALUES INDICATE. THERE WILL ALSO BE A COUPLE PESKY PERIODS OF SNOW             
 SHOWERS THIS WEEK WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ENSUING NORTHWEST LOW           
 LEVEL FLOW OF COLD, LAKE-MOISTENED AND UNSTABLE AIR, PARTICULARLY              
 SUNDAY, TUESDAY, AND THURSDAY.                                                 
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN CULPRIT FOR           
 LOWERED CONDITIONS, POTENTIALLY TO IFR, PRIOR TO 12Z WILL BE                   
 ISOLATED SNOW BANDS. ONCE THE LOW LEVEL WINDS SWITCH INTO THE                  
 SOUTHWEST, THESE WILL BE GONE. ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE THE BOUNDARY              
 LAYER WILL HELP FORM A STRATOCUMULUS DECK (OVC040), HOWEVER SNOW               
 FORMATION WILL BE LIMITED BY THE STABILITY WITHIN THE LIFT ZONE AND            
 LOW LEVEL DRYNESS UNDERNEATH.                                                  
 AS MENTIONED, WIND DIRECTIONS WILL GO FROM WEST PRIOR TO 12Z TO                
 SOUTHWEST 12Z-20Z, TO NEAR SOUTH TONIGHT. SPEEDS WILL BE GENERALLY             
 5-10 KTS.                                                                      
 &&                                                                             
 .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 MD...NONE.                                                                     
 OH...NONE.                                                                     
 PA...NONE.                                                                     
 WV...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 11/15                                                                          
</pre> md                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                             
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                          
 1030 PM EST FRI JAN 26 2007                                                    
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 RADAR INDICATED AN BAND OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES BRUSHING NRN UPR             
 MI ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHRTWV AHEAD OF THE MID LVL LOW OVER WRN             
 ONTARIO. AT THE SFC...THE OCCLUDED FRONT HAD MOVED INTO ERN UPR MI             
 TO NEAR KERY. ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT HELPED                 
 SUPPORT -FZDZ EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS ALSO DEPARTED TO THE EAST. AS           
 CAA INCREASES LATE 850 MB TEMPS ARE FCST TO DROP TO -12C TO -14C               
 OVER THE WEST. THE COLDER AIR ALONG WITH MODERATE 700-500 MB QVECTOR           
 CONV AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHRTWV...SHOULD BRING AN INCREASE IN SNOW/LES           
 IN LINE WITH THE GOING FCST. THE SHRTWV ALSO WARRANTS KEEPING LIGHT            
 SNOW CHANCES (20-40 POPS) GOING LATE TONIGHT FOR THE REST OF THE CWA           
 WITH MINIMAL IF ANY ACCUMULATION.                                              
 .SYNOPSIS...                                                                   
 WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER WRN ONTARIO/NRN MN           
 WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE PINWHEELING THROUGH CENTRAL                         
 MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN. DOWNSTREAM FROM SHORTWAVES...MID-LVL RDG                
 OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES HAS RESULTED IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS               
 ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA...EXCEPT FOR SOME UPSLOPE                         
 FLURRIES/PATCHY -FZDZ OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND ERN COUNTIES.               
 BASED ON LATEST RADAR LOOP AND SFC OBS LOOKS LIKE ANY LINGERING LAKE           
 EFFECT SNOW OVER SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY IS WANING DESPITE DECENT                   
 LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG SFC TROF THERE. SO WILL CANCEL SNOW                
 ADVISORY FOR SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY.                                           
 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)...                                                       
 SHORTWAVE OVER WRN ONTARIO IS EXPECTED TO DIVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR            
 TONIGHT AS BEST FORCING FROM THIS FEATURE WILL BE NE OF CWFA.                  
 SHORTWAVE WILL DRIVE SFC TROF NOW OVER FAR WRN UPR MI ACROSS THE               
 REST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY                    
 OVERNIGHT. WIND SHIFTING TO A MORE WNW DIRECTION BEHIND THE TROF               
 SHOULD BRING SOME LES FLURRIES INTO WRN AND PERHAPS INTO CENTRAL               
 COUNTIES AS WELL...BUT AGAIN DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING MORE THAN                  
 FLURRIES GIVEN MARGINALLY COLD 850 MB TEMPS (-9/-10C) AND FAIRLY               
 STRONG SUBSIDENCE INTO THIS EVENING. KEPT IN A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW           
 OR PATCHY -FZDZ OVER THE KEWEENAW AND ERN HALF COUNTIES WHERE                  
 UPSLOPE S-SE FLOW WILL BE PRESENT ALONG SFC TROF AND WEAK FORCING IS           
 POSSIBLE AHEAD OF INCOMING SHORTWAVE.                                          
 AFTER MIDNIGHT...SECONDARY SHORTWAVE APPROACHES WITH BETTER SHOT OF            
 CAA AS 850 MB TEMPS BEGIN TO LOWER TO -14/-16C OVER THE WRN FCST               
 AREA. INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC/CONVERGENT NW FLOW AND MORE FAVORABLE              
 SNOW GROWTH WILL FAVOR NRN GOGEBIC COUNTY THROUGH SRN HOUGHTON                 
 COUNTIES FOR BURSTS OF MORE INTENSE SNOW TOWARD MORNING WITH                   
 ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.                                                
 .LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                        
 THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WAS THIS WEEKEND AND THE INHERITED LAKE              
 EFFECT SNOW WATCHES...AS SOME DECISIONS NEEDED TO BE MADE ON                   
 UPGRADES OR DOWNGRADES. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORIES WERE ALSO                  
 NEEDING TO BE POSTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA.                                  
 AS ON THE FENCE WITH A FEW OF WSW ISSUES THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE.               
 THE FIRST HAS TO DO WITH PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN HOUGHTON                     
 COUNTY...WHERE WARNING CRITERIA IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE.  THE SECOND           
 WAS WITH DELTA COUNTY...WHICH WOULD ALSO BE CLOSE TO THE 12 HOUR               
 ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EXTREME           
 NORTHERN SLIVER OF THE COUNTY.  DECIDED TO GO WITH THE ADVISORY                
 THERE.  THE THIRD THING WOULD BE WITH RESPECT TO NORTHERN KEWEENAW             
 COUNTY...AS WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON            
 INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND GET CLOSE TO BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY             
 CRITERIA. FOR THIS...HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF LOCALIZED BLOWING               
 SNOW TO THE WSW.                                                               
 THE SFC LOW (DOUBLE BARREL LOW CONFIGURATION) CURRENTLY STRETCHING             
 FROM SOUTHWEST ONTARIO TO NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY           
 SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND THEN            
 STRETCH FROM SOUTHEASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TO SOUTHERN LAKE HURON BY              
 12Z SATURDAY.  THIS WILL BEGIN TO TURN OUR WINDS TO A MORE FAVORABLE           
 N-NW DIRECTION QUICKEST WEST 09Z AND 18Z CENTRAL...AND 850 TEMPS OF            
 -4C AT 12Z THIS MORNING OFF OF THE INL SOUNDING WILL BE ALLOWED TO             
 FALL A BETTER LAKE EFFECT TEMPERATURE OF -10C BY 06Z SATURDAY ACROSS           
 THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE...COOLING OFF TO -12 TO -15C BY 12Z                
 SATURDAY...WITH STILL LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AN INVERSION TO SPEAK OF.           
 FOR QPF AMOUNTS...MADE FEW ADJUSTMENTS...STILL LINING UP CLOSER TO             
 THE RUC13 AND REGIONAL CAN.                                                    
 FOR SATURDAY...TEMPS LOOK GOOD FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH                   
 GUIDANCE CLUSTERED AROUND OUR INHERITED VALUES...SEE NO NEED TO MAKE           
 ANY DRASTIC CHANGES.                                                           
 FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY MONDAY               
 BECOME TRICKY.  PLENTY OF COLD AIR WILL BE OVERHEAD...MODERATING BY            
 A COUPLE OF DEGREES C AT 850MB WHEN COMPARED TO SUNDAY.  HIGH CLOUDS           
 WILL ALSO BE SLIDING IN DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS IN OUR                        
 NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.  ENDED UP HEDGING             
 THE TEMPS SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE GFS...WHICH IS ONE OF THE WARMER                
 MODELS GUIDANCE WISE AT THAT TIME.  IN TERMS OF WEATHER AND POPS               
 MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...START OUT THE NIGHT WITH NNE WINDS WHICH           
 WOULD FAVOR JUST KEEPING POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD NEAR LAKE               
 SUPERIOR...WITH A DRYING TREND ELSEWHERE.  SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD             
 BE OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY MORNING...AND THEN            
 PUSH WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND OVER SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN BY 06Z                  
 TUESDAY.  MUCH OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH IT REMAINING TO OUR               
 SOUTH AS WELL...LEAVING THE UPPER PENINSULA TEMPORARILY BETWEEN                
 SYSTEMS.  HAVE OPTED TO LOWER POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT             
 STILL KEEPING 30-40 POPS FOR THE MORE FAVORED EASTERN THIRD.  TAKING           
 A LOOK AT THE GFS ENSEMBLES...THE OPERATIONAL GFS MAY BE ONE OF THE            
 FURTHEST SOUTH OPTIONS FOR THE TROUGH...LEAVING SOME UNCERTAINTY IN            
 PLAY FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  EVEN WITH THIS SAID IT SEEMS TO           
 BE BACKED BY SOME OF THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS INCLUDING THE ECMWF.              
 AS FOR THE EXTENDED (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...                                 
 ACTUALLY WARMED UP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FOR DAYS 6 AND NEW 7                  
 (THURSDAY AND FRIDAY)...UTILIZING LATEST HPC GUIDANCE FOR THAT                 
 PERIOD.  IN FACT WENT ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER...PARTICULARLY ACROSS             
 THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY                   
 AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE THROUGH THIS PERIOD...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO           
 THE INHERITED FORECAST...AS EXTENDED GUIDANCE FOR OUR REGION                   
 CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY WELL IN LINE FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME PERIOD.              
 HPC UTILIZED THE 00Z ECMWF FOR THE START OF THE FORECAST                       
 PERIOD...AND TRANSITIONED TO THE 00Z NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN.                       
 ZONAL FLOW WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH LINGERING MOISTURE HAVE NOT YET BEEN           
 ABLE TO TAKE POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST.  NEXT 500MB TROUGH DIGS IN              
 WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  HAVE INCREASED THE POSSIBILITY OF              
 SYNOPTIC SNOW FOR THURSDAY.                                                    
 &&                                                                             
 .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR             
 MIZ004>006.                                                                    
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ SATURDAY TO 7                
 PM EST /6 PM CST/ SUNDAY FOR MIZ002-009.                                       
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 10 PM EST                     
 SUNDAY FOR MIZ001-003.                                                         
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY                
 FOR MIZ013-085.                                                                
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 .SHORT TERM...KF                                                               
 .LONG TERM...JV                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                            
 1005 PM EST FRI JAN 26 2007                                                    
 .UPDATE...1000MB SURFACE LOW NEAR TVC...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS             
 TO THE EAST...NORTH...AND WEST. MOISTURE WAS DEEPER TO THE NE AND              
 SHALLOWER TO THE SE. THE COLLISION/COALESCENCE WAS ACTIVE ENOUGH               
 OVER THE NE 2/3DS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO PRODUCE LIGHT PRECIP. THIS           
 WAS STILL SNOW OVER PARTS OF WESTERN CHIP/MACK COUNTIES...BUT                  
 OTHERWISE PRECIP WAS FALLING AS FZDZ. SAULT MI JUST WENT OVER FROM             
 SNOW TO FZDZ IN THE PAST HOUR. KAPX 00Z SOUNDING WAS A CLASSIC                 
 DRIZZLE SOUNDING...ENTIRELY AT OR WARMER THAN -10C AND WITH A NICE             
 MOISTURE SPIKE JUST ABOVE THE 825MB INVERSION. PRECIP AND HEADLINE             
 TRENDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR OVERNIGHT.                                    
 IN EASTERN UPPER...GIVEN CURRENT REPORTS/OBS AN ADVISORY IS IN                 
 ORDER. FZDZ WILL END 1ST UP HERE...AS COOLER AIR GETS ADVECTED IN ON           
 NW FLOW AS INITIAL SURFACE LOW MOVES OUT ACROSS HURON...JUST AHEAD             
 OF SECONDARY CLIPPER NEARING EASTERN SUPERIOR. SUSPECT THAT FZDZ               
 WILL WRAP UP BY 5-6AM...BUT TO BE SAFE WILL RUN THRU 8 AM (LIKE                
 NORTHERN LOWER...SEE BELOW).                                                   
 IN NORTHERN LOWER...FZDZ HAS MADE AN UNFORTUNATE PUSH TO THE WEST/SW           
 AS SURFACE LOW PASSES...PROBABLY A RESPONSE TO THE ADDED LOW LEVEL             
 CONVERGENCE NEAR THE LOW DEEPENING THE MOIST LAYER. WILL ADD A                 
 HANDFUL OF COUNTIES...INCLUDING TVC/HTL...BACK INTO THE WINTER WX              
 ADVISORY...AND EXTEND THRU 8 AM. AGAIN...THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR             
 SHOULD TRANSITION PRECIP TO SNOW VERY LATE TONIGHT.                            
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION ISSUED 639 PM FRI JAN 26...                                   
 UPDATE...OBS/RADAR TRENDS/CALLS TO LAW ENFORCEMENT INDICATE DZ/FZDZ            
 IS VERY LIGHT TO NONEXISTENT IN THE SW AND FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. LOW             
 LEVEL MOISTURE IS SHALLOWER AS YOU HEAD SW...LARGELY BELOW 800MB               
 THERE VS UP TO 750MB OR SO IN APN AND THE STRAITS. WILL TAKE A STAB            
 AT LOWERING THE WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR LEELANAU/TVC/HTL/STANDISH.              
 WILL OBVIOUSLY MAINTAIN FURTHER NORTH...WHERE WIDESPREAD AND                   
 SUBSTANTIAL FZDZ HAS REDEVELOPED.                                              
 ZOLTOWSKI                                                                      
 DISCUSSION...MID AFTERNOON SATELLITE/SURFACE/RADAR/AND RUC ANALYSIS            
 SHOW BASIC MID LEVEL CONFIGURATION OF THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS (AND FOR           
 MANY MORE DAYS TO COME...SEE EXTENDED DISCUSSION BELOW) REMAINING IN           
 PLACE WITH WESTERN NOAM LONG WAVE RIDGE AND SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM              
 CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. EASTERN CONUS TROUGH ABOUT TO BE             
 REINFORCED AS VIGOROUS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...AND ASSOCIATED              
 HEIGHT FALLS...IS DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL MANITOBA. AT THE             
 SURFACE...ELONGATED 999MB LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM WESTERN ONTARIO            
 TO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. SURFACE WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST FROM THE              
 LOW OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN RACING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS LOW AND              
 MID LEVEL WAA ADVECTION CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF SYSTEM.               
 FARTHER WEST...FIRST IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS USHERING IN                    
 PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR EXTENDS FROM EASTERN PLAINS SOUTHWEST                 
 THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. REGIONAL RADAR PLOTS SHOW WHAT REMAINS             
 OF THIS MORNINGS FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED SNOWFALL SLIDING EAST OVER           
 EASTERN LAKE HURON. WITH BEST DYNAMICS AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE                  
 PULLING OFF TO THE EAST...NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SEEING WIDESPREAD            
 AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FINE SNOWFLAKES WITH BULK OF               
 REMAINING MOISTURE REMAINING BELOW -10C...PER 12Z MODEL POINT                  
 SOUNDINGS. FORECAST CONCERNS TONIGHT CENTER ON FREEZING DRIZZLE                
 POTENTIAL THIS EVENING WITH SNOWFALL POTENTIAL TAKING CENTER STAGE             
 LATER TONIGHT.                                                                 
 TONIGHT...12 MODEL SUITE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT SHOWING MANITOBA               
 SHORTWAVE CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST...TO A POSITION AT THE                   
 NORTHEAST END OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY MORNING. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW              
 TRACKS RIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...WITH TRAILING COLD           
 FRONT CLEARING THE AREA TOWARDS MORNING. ALTHOUGH SURFACE SYSTEM               
 SLIDES THROUGH THE HEART OF THE AREA...BEST MID AND UPPER LEVEL                
 SUPPORT FOR SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION REMAINS NORTH OF THE                        
 REGION...CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE. MODEL POINT SOUNDINGS FOR THE                
 NORTHERN LOWER CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGH THIS               
 EVENING WITH LIMITED MID LEVEL MOISTURE...SATURATED CONDITIONS BELOW           
 -10C...AND SOME WEAK SHEAR AT TOP OF INVERSION. FARTHER                        
 NORTH...EASTERN UPPER MORE MARGINAL ACCORDING TO SOUNDINGS AND WILL            
 MENTION SNOW SHOWER/FREEZING DRIZZLE MIX WITH LESS ICE ACCUMULATION            
 EXPECTED. ALSO SOME CONCERN ALONG THE SAINT MARYS RIVER OF SOME                
 SOUTHEAST FLOW LAKE HURON ENHANCEMENT WITH EVENING DELTA T/S IN THE            
 LOW TEENS. SOME EVIDENCE OF THIS ALREADY OCCURING WITH THE SOO                 
 REPORTING LIGHT SNOW FOR SEVERAL HOURS DESPITE DYNAMICAL FORCING NOW           
 WELL OFF TO THEIR NORTHEAST. LAST FEW SCANS OF MONTREAL RIVER CANADA           
 RADAR SHOWS EXPANDING AREA OF LIGHT SNOW AT THE NORTHWEST END OF THE           
 NORTH CHANNEL...WHICH ALSO MIGHT BE A SIGN OF SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT            
 KICKING IN. HAVE LEFT LIKELY POPS THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS             
 WITH ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH RIGHT ALONG THE RIVER SYSTEM. AFTER           
 MIDNIGHT...WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST FLOW CAA KICKS IN WITH 850MB                 
 TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO -11C TO -12C OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN              
 AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. MID LEVEL COOLING COMBINED WITH SOME                
 SCOURING OUT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PUT AN END TO THE FREEZING           
 DRIZZLE THREAT. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW                 
 POTENTIAL AS DELTA T/S DROP TO RIGHT AROUND 13C. BUFKIT AND POINT              
 SOUNDING ANALYSIS SHOWS INVERSION LEVELS OF ONLY ABOUT 3.5KFT AND              
 850MB-700MB MOISTURE <50 PERCENT OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND >70           
 PERCENT OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. DID TRIM POPS SOME IN FAVORED              
 WEST NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS OF THE NORTHERN LOWER. KEPT POPS IN HIGH             
 CHANCE CATEGORY NEAR WHITEFISH POINT WITH LONGER FETCH LENGTH AND              
 BETTER MID LEVEL MOISTURE.                                                     
 MARINE...COMPLICATED MARINE FORECAST OVERNIGHT AS WINDS VEER AROUND            
 NORTHWESTERLY. WILL LEAVE CURRENT SCA FOR SELECTED NEARSHORE WATERS            
 OF LAKE HURON AND MICHIGAN THROUGH THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT PRIMARILY           
 FOR GUST SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. AFTER A LULL LATER THIS                     
 EVENING...WINDS WEST NORTHWEST WINDS PICK UP OVER NORTHERN LAKE                
 MICHIGAN. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED NORWOOD MICHIGAN TO THE BRIDGE             
 NEARSHORE ZONE TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN GROUP TO ACCOUNT PRIMARILY FOR             
 WAVES. WILL LET LAKE HURON NEARSHORE WATERS EXPIRE AS WIND FIELDS              
 TAKE LONGER TO ORGANIZE.                                                       
 MSB                                                                            
 LATER PERIODS...ACTIVE PERIOD SHAPING UP AS A SERIES OF CLIPPERS               
 WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.  FIRST OF THESE                 
 SYSTEMS WILL ARRIVE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A SECOND CLOSE BEHIND           
 IT MOVING IN ON SUNDAY.  THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A PERIOD OF               
 ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS FOR EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHWEST LOWER           
 MICHIGAN.  THIS LATTER SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING A SURGE OF BELOW                 
 NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOKS ONLY TO BE A PRECURSOR OF WHAT IS            
 TO COME LATER NEXT WEEK.  OTHER CLIPPERS TAKE AIM ON THE GREAT LAKES           
 ON TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.  THE LAST IN THE SERIES OF WAVES COULD                
 POTENTIALLY BRING SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR IN YEARS TO THE GREAT                
 LAKES FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS AIR ORIGINATING DIRECTLY OUT OF THE NORTH            
 POLE DIVES SOUTH.  MODELS IN GENERAL HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON              
 THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.  HAVE MOSTLY USED A             
 BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF...AND HAVE MIXED IN A LITTLE OF THE NAM             
 THROUGH ABOUT 48 TO 60 HOURS OUT.                                              
 TOMORROW...STRONG SHORTWAVE AS SEEN ON WV IMAGERY OVER MANITOBA WILL           
 PASS ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE BEST FORCING ARRIVING ACROSS LOWER                
 MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON.  AS THE SHORTWAVE                               
 APPROACHES...850-700MB RH VALUES BECOME NEARLY SATURATED AND                   
 INVERSION HEIGHTS INCREASE FROM 4KFT AT 12Z TO 7KFT BY 00Z SUN.                
 850MB TEMPERATURES START OUT MARGINAL FOR LAKE EFFECT BETWEEN -10C             
 AND -12C CREATING DELTA T`S AROUND 13C TO 15C...BUT COLD ADVECTION             
 OVER THE COURSE OF THE MORNING WILL CREATE A MORE FAVORABLE                    
 THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FOR LAKE EFFECT (DELTA T`S INCREASE BY A                 
 COUPLE DEGREES BY 18Z AND A COUPLE DEGREES MORE BY 00Z).  SECONDARY            
 COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY                      
 00Z...WHOSE ADDED CONVERGENCE WILL HELP BOOST ONGOING LAKE EFFECT              
 SNOW.  BECAUSE OF THE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SNOW               
 DURING THE AFTERNOON...WILL KEEP CHANCEY TO LIKELY ACROSS LAKE                 
 EFFECT PRONE AREAS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND CATEGORICAL OVER             
 THESE SAME AREAS FOR THE AFTERNOON.  SNOW AMOUNTS WILL PROBABLY IN             
 THE 1-3 INCH RANGE FOR THE LAKE EFFECT AREAS NEAR WHITEFISH POINT              
 AND THE TYPICAL CORRIDOR ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER.                               
 SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY... LEADING SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST            
 AND CLEAR THE CWA DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  HOWEVER...SECONDARY               
 SHORTWAVE WILL MAINTAIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THIS PERIOD AND DRIVE           
 AN ARCTIC FRONT SOUTH OVERNIGHT.  GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING SLOWER WITH            
 THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM OVER THE PAST COUPLE           
 DAYS.  STRONG COLD ADVECTION ENSUES BEHIND THIS FRONT AS WNW WINDS             
 SHIFT TO THE NNW OR DUE NORTH DIRECTION AND WILL USHER IN 850MB                
 TEMPS BELOW -20C. IN ADDITION...MODEL 850-700MB RH FIELDS KEEP                 
 PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITHIN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW...WHILE INVERSION                 
 HEIGHTS REMAIN HIGH ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER (ABOVE 6KFT) BUT DECREASE           
 ACROSS EASTERN UPPER ON SUNDAY SINCE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL BE             
 EXITING HERE FIRST.   THIS APPEARS TO BE A PRETTY GOOD SETUP FROM A            
 LAKE EFFECT STANDPOINT WITH SHARP LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE           
 REGION TO ENHANCE CONVERGENCE.  WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE             
 NORTHEAST FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...AND           
 ONSHORE NW TO N FLOW ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER (WITH THE STRONGEST                
 FORCING)...EXPECT THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS TO OCCUR ACROSS                    
 NORTHWEST LOWER AND WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE GRIDS.  HAVE THOUGHT              
 ABOUT A PUTTING UP A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH...BUT UNCERTAINTY WITH             
 THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING AND THE CORRESPONDING VEERING OF WINDS              
 HAS MADE IT QUITE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AN AREA WHICH CAN                      
 CONFIDENTLY SAY WILL GET THE MOST SNOW.  WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR           
 ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS NE LOWER OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH           
 THE SHARP NE FLOW IN PLACE.                                                    
 SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE                 
 OVERNIGHT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.  WITH THE            
 UPPER TROUGH EXITING...1000-850MB WINDS BACK FROM THE NNW TO WNW               
 WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES (-20C) HARDLY WARMING WHATSOEVER...AND                 
 INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY.  THEREFORE...BELIEVE              
 THE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE                 
 PERIOD SO WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS (LIKELY) GOING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND            
 LOWER POPS (CHANCE) FOR WNW FLOW AREAS ON MONDAY.  NEXT CLIPPER                
 SYSTEM DIVES SE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY.  TIMING OF THIS            
 SYSTEM STILL A LITTLE SUSPECT WITH THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY SPEEDIER WITH            
 THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW (REACHES SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN) THAN THE           
 GFS (NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY) BY 00Z TUES. A LOOK AT THE             
 GFS/GEM ENSEMBLES SUGGESTS A COMPROMISE IS IN ORDER (NORTHERN ILL)             
 AND THEREFORE WE SHOULD SEE INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS                  
 THROUGH THE DAY...BUT ENOUGH DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE TO PREVENT               
 SNOW TO REACH THE SURFACE OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT AREAS.  HIGH              
 TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ONCE AGAIN...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO              
 MIDDLE TEENS.                                                                  
 TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN VERY GOOD                
 AGREEMENT WITH THE UPCOMING PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK...AND ITS A                  
 PATTERN THAT LOOKS BITTERLY COLD FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH                 
 AMERICA BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD. STRONG WESTERN NOAM RIDGE                   
 STRENGTHENS AS IT RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY FROM THE YUKON TO EASTERN               
 ALASKA PRODUCING 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES 360 METERS ABOVE NORMAL BY             
 00Z TUESDAY.  THIS WILL HELP TO CREATE UPPER LEVEL FLOW ORIGINATING            
 DIRECTLY OUT OF THE ARCTIC AND PRODUCE 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES IN               
 EXCESS OF 280 METERS BELOW NORMAL BY 00Z FRI DOWNSTREAM OVER THE               
 WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN REMARKABLE                   
 AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AS SHOWN BY THE LOW                   
 STANDARD DEVIATIONS WITHIN THE RIDGE AXIS WITH THE LARGEST SPREAD ON           
 THE PERIPHERY WHICH INDICATES UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE               
 RIDGE.  OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS...GFS ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN TRENDING              
 WEST WITH THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR...NOW PLACING IT OVER THE                   
 NORTHERN PLAINS WITH ONSET COMING NEXT THURSDAY.  MAIN FORECAST                
 CONCERNS INCLUDE TIMING OF THESE CLIPPERS AS THEY SLIDE DOWN THE               
 EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE...WITH EACH BRINGING A SLIGHT WARM UP                
 AHEAD OF THEM...AND BITTERLY COLD AIR BEHIND THEM.  ONE OF THESE               
 WAVES IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH NORTHERN MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY...WITH              
 THE NEXT ONE ARRIVING ON THURSDAY.  THE LATTER OF THESE WAVES COULD            
 POTENTIALLY BRING THE COLDEST AIR WE HAVE SEEN THUS FAR THIS WINTER            
 FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  OUTSIDE OF THESE WAVES...LAKE EFFECT SNOW                   
 POTENTIAL WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.                
 MPC                                                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...THRU 8            
        AM...MIZ008-015>024-026>030-033>036.                                    
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                            
 639 PM EST FRI JAN 26 2007                                                     
 .UPDATE...OBS/RADAR TRENDS/CALLS TO LAW ENFORCEMENT INDICATE DZ/FZDZ           
 IS VERY LIGHT TO NONEXISTENT IN THE SW AND FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. LOW             
 LEVEL MOISTURE IS SHALLOWER AS YOU HEAD SW...LARGELY BELOW 800MB               
 THERE VS UP TO 750MB OR SO IN APN AND THE STRAITS. WILL TAKE A STAB            
 AT LOWERING THE WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR LEELANAU/TVC/HTL/STANDISH.              
 WILL OBVIOUSLY MAINTAIN FURTHER NORTH...WHERE WIDESPREAD AND                   
 SUBSTANTIAL FZDZ HAS REDEVELOPED.                                              
 ZOLTOWSKI                                                                      
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION ISSUED 400 PM FRI JAN 26...                                   
 MID AFTERNOON SATELLITE/SURFACE/RADAR/AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW BASIC              
 MID LEVEL CONFIGURATION OF THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS (AND FOR MANY MORE            
 DAYS TO COME...SEE EXTENDED DISCUSSION BELOW) REMAINING IN PLACE               
 WITH WESTERN NOAM LONG WAVE RIDGE AND SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM CENTRAL            
 AND EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. EASTERN CONUS TROUGH ABOUT TO BE                     
 REINFORCED AS VIGOROUS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...AND ASSOCIATED              
 HEIGHT FALLS...IS DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL MANITOBA. AT THE             
 SURFACE...ELONGATED 999MB LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM WESTERN ONTARIO            
 TO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. SURFACE WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST FROM THE              
 LOW OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN RACING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS LOW AND              
 MID LEVEL WAA ADVECTION CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF SYSTEM.               
 FARTHER WEST...FIRST IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS USHERING IN                    
 PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR EXTENDS FROM EASTERN PLAINS SOUTHWEST                 
 THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. REGIONAL RADAR PLOTS SHOW WHAT REMAINS             
 OF THIS MORNINGS FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED SNOWFALL SLIDING EAST OVER           
 EASTERN LAKE HURON. WITH BEST DYNAMICS AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE                  
 PULLING OFF TO THE EAST...NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SEEING WIDESPREAD            
 AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FINE SNOWFLAKES WITH BULK OF               
 REMAINING MOISTURE REMAINING BELOW -10C...PER 12Z MODEL POINT                  
 SOUNDINGS. FORECAST CONCERNS TONIGHT CENTER ON FREEZING DRIZZLE                
 POTENTIAL THIS EVENING WITH SNOWFALL POTENTIAL TAKING CENTER STAGE             
 LATER TONIGHT.                                                                 
 TONIGHT...12 MODEL SUITE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT SHOWING MANITOBA               
 SHORTWAVE CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST...TO A POSITION AT THE                   
 NORTHEAST END OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY MORNING. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW              
 TRACKS RIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...WITH TRAILING COLD           
 FRONT CLEARING THE AREA TOWARDS MORNING. ALTHOUGH SURFACE SYSTEM               
 SLIDES THROUGH THE HEART OF THE AREA...BEST MID AND UPPER LEVEL                
 SUPPORT FOR SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION REMAINS NORTH OF THE                        
 REGION...CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE. MODEL POINT SOUNDINGS FOR THE                
 NORTHERN LOWER CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGH THIS               
 EVENING WITH LIMITED MID LEVEL MOISTURE...SATURATED CONDITIONS BELOW           
 -10C...AND SOME WEAK SHEAR AT TOP OF INVERSION. FARTHER                        
 NORTH...EASTERN UPPER MORE MARGINAL ACCORDING TO SOUNDINGS AND WILL            
 MENTION SNOW SHOWER/FREEZING DRIZZLE MIX WITH LESS ICE ACCUMULATION            
 EXPECTED. ALSO SOME CONCERN ALONG THE SAINT MARYS RIVER OF SOME                
 SOUTHEAST FLOW LAKE HURON ENHANCEMENT WITH EVENING DELTA T/S IN THE            
 LOW TEENS. SOME EVIDENCE OF THIS ALREADY OCCURING WITH THE SOO                 
 REPORTING LIGHT SNOW FOR SEVERAL HOURS DESPITE DYNAMICAL FORCING NOW           
 WELL OFF TO THEIR NORTHEAST. LAST FEW SCANS OF MONTREAL RIVER CANADA           
 RADAR SHOWS EXPANDING AREA OF LIGHT SNOW AT THE NORTHWEST END OF THE           
 NORTH CHANNEL...WHICH ALSO MIGHT BE A SIGN OF SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT            
 KICKING IN. HAVE LEFT LIKELY POPS THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS             
 WITH ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH RIGHT ALONG THE RIVER SYSTEM. AFTER           
 MIDNIGHT...WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST FLOW CAA KICKS IN WITH 850MB                 
 TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO -11C TO -12C OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN              
 AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. MID LEVEL COOLING COMBINED WITH SOME                
 SCOURING OUT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PUT AN END TO THE FREEZING           
 DRIZZLE THREAT. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW                 
 POTENTIAL AS DELTA T/S DROP TO RIGHT AROUND 13C. BUFKIT AND POINT              
 SOUNDING ANALYSIS SHOWS INVERSION LEVELS OF ONLY ABOUT 3.5KFT AND              
 850MB-700MB MOISTURE <50 PERCENT OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND >70           
 PERCENT OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. DID TRIM POPS SOME IN FAVORED              
 WEST NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS OF THE NORTHERN LOWER. KEPT POPS IN HIGH             
 CHANCE CATEGORY NEAR WHITEFISH POINT WITH LONGER FETCH LENGTH AND              
 BETTER MID LEVEL MOISTURE.                                                     
 MARINE...COMPLICATED MARINE FORECAST OVERNIGHT AS WINDS VEER AROUND            
 NORTHWESTERLY. WILL LEAVE CURRENT SCA FOR SELECTED NEARSHORE WATERS            
 OF LAKE HURON AND MICHIGAN THROUGH THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT PRIMARILY           
 FOR GUST SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. AFTER A LULL LATER THIS                     
 EVENING...WINDS WEST NORTHWEST WINDS PICK UP OVER NORTHERN LAKE                
 MICHIGAN. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED NORWOOD MICHIGAN TO THE BRIDGE             
 NEARSHORE ZONE TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN GROUP TO ACCOUNT PRIMARILY FOR             
 WAVES. WILL LET LAKE HURON NEARSHORE WATERS EXPIRE AS WIND FIELDS              
 TAKE LONGER TO ORGANIZE.                                                       
 MSB                                                                            
 LATER PERIODS...ACTIVE PERIOD SHAPING UP AS A SERIES OF CLIPPERS               
 WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.  FIRST OF THESE                 
 SYSTEMS WILL ARRIVE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A SECOND CLOSE BEHIND           
 IT MOVING IN ON SUNDAY.  THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A PERIOD OF               
 ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS FOR EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHWEST LOWER           
 MICHIGAN.  THIS LATTER SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING A SURGE OF BELOW                 
 NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOKS ONLY TO BE A PRECURSOR OF WHAT IS            
 TO COME LATER NEXT WEEK.  OTHER CLIPPERS TAKE AIM ON THE GREAT LAKES           
 ON TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.  THE LAST IN THE SERIES OF WAVES COULD                
 POTENTIALLY BRING SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR IN YEARS TO THE GREAT                
 LAKES FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS AIR ORIGINATING DIRECTLY OUT OF THE NORTH            
 POLE DIVES SOUTH.  MODELS IN GENERAL HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON              
 THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.  HAVE MOSTLY USED A             
 BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF...AND HAVE MIXED IN A LITTLE OF THE NAM             
 THROUGH ABOUT 48 TO 60 HOURS OUT.                                              
 TOMORROW...STRONG SHORTWAVE AS SEEN ON WV IMAGERY OVER MANITOBA WILL           
 PASS ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE BEST FORCING ARRIVING ACROSS LOWER                
 MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON.  AS THE SHORTWAVE                               
 APPROACHES...850-700MB RH VALUES BECOME NEARLY SATURATED AND                   
 INVERSION HEIGHTS INCREASE FROM 4KFT AT 12Z TO 7KFT BY 00Z SUN.                
 850MB TEMPERATURES START OUT MARGINAL FOR LAKE EFFECT BETWEEN -10C             
 AND -12C CREATING DELTA T`S AROUND 13C TO 15C...BUT COLD ADVECTION             
 OVER THE COURSE OF THE MORNING WILL CREATE A MORE FAVORABLE                    
 THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FOR LAKE EFFECT (DELTA T`S INCREASE BY A                 
 COUPLE DEGREES BY 18Z AND A COUPLE DEGREES MORE BY 00Z).  SECONDARY            
 COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY                      
 00Z...WHOSE ADDED CONVERGENCE WILL HELP BOOST ONGOING LAKE EFFECT              
 SNOW.  BECAUSE OF THE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SNOW               
 DURING THE AFTERNOON...WILL KEEP CHANCEY TO LIKELY ACROSS LAKE                 
 EFFECT PRONE AREAS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND CATEGORICAL OVER             
 THESE SAME AREAS FOR THE AFTERNOON.  SNOW AMOUNTS WILL PROBABLY IN             
 THE 1-3 INCH RANGE FOR THE LAKE EFFECT AREAS NEAR WHITEFISH POINT              
 AND THE TYPICAL CORRIDOR ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER.                               
 SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY... LEADING SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST            
 AND CLEAR THE CWA DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  HOWEVER...SECONDARY               
 SHORTWAVE WILL MAINTAIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THIS PERIOD AND DRIVE           
 AN ARCTIC FRONT SOUTH OVERNIGHT.  GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING SLOWER WITH            
 THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM OVER THE PAST COUPLE           
 DAYS.  STRONG COLD ADVECTION ENSUES BEHIND THIS FRONT AS WNW WINDS             
 SHIFT TO THE NNW OR DUE NORTH DIRECTION AND WILL USHER IN 850MB                
 TEMPS BELOW -20C. IN ADDITION...MODEL 850-700MB RH FIELDS KEEP                 
 PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITHIN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW...WHILE INVERSION                 
 HEIGHTS REMAIN HIGH ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER (ABOVE 6KFT) BUT DECREASE           
 ACROSS EASTERN UPPER ON SUNDAY SINCE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL BE             
 EXITING HERE FIRST.   THIS APPEARS TO BE A PRETTY GOOD SETUP FROM A            
 LAKE EFFECT STANDPOINT WITH SHARP LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE           
 REGION TO ENHANCE CONVERGENCE.  WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE             
 NORTHEAST FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...AND           
 ONSHORE NW TO N FLOW ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER (WITH THE STRONGEST                
 FORCING)...EXPECT THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS TO OCCUR ACROSS                    
 NORTHWEST LOWER AND WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE GRIDS.  HAVE THOUGHT              
 ABOUT A PUTTING UP A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH...BUT UNCERTAINTY WITH             
 THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING AND THE CORRESPONDING VEERING OF WINDS              
 HAS MADE IT QUITE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AN AREA WHICH CAN                      
 CONFIDENTLY SAY WILL GET THE MOST SNOW.  WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR           
 ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS NE LOWER OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH           
 THE SHARP NE FLOW IN PLACE.                                                    
 SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE                 
 OVERNIGHT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.  WITH THE            
 UPPER TROUGH EXITING...1000-850MB WINDS BACK FROM THE NNW TO WNW               
 WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES (-20C) HARDLY WARMING WHATSOEVER...AND                 
 INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY.  THEREFORE...BELIEVE              
 THE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE                 
 PERIOD SO WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS (LIKELY) GOING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND            
 LOWER POPS (CHANCE) FOR WNW FLOW AREAS ON MONDAY.  NEXT CLIPPER                
 SYSTEM DIVES SE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY.  TIMING OF THIS            
 SYSTEM STILL A LITTLE SUSPECT WITH THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY SPEEDIER WITH            
 THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW (REACHES SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN) THAN THE           
 GFS (NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY) BY 00Z TUES. A LOOK AT THE             
 GFS/GEM ENSEMBLES SUGGESTS A COMPROMISE IS IN ORDER (NORTHERN ILL)             
 AND THEREFORE WE SHOULD SEE INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS                  
 THROUGH THE DAY...BUT ENOUGH DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE TO PREVENT               
 SNOW TO REACH THE SURFACE OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT AREAS.  HIGH              
 TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ONCE AGAIN...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO              
 MIDDLE TEENS.                                                                  
 TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN VERY GOOD                
 AGREEMENT WITH THE UPCOMING PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK...AND ITS A                  
 PATTERN THAT LOOKS BITTERLY COLD FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH                 
 AMERICA BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD. STRONG WESTERN NOAM RIDGE                   
 STRENGTHENS AS IT RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY FROM THE YUKON TO EASTERN               
 ALASKA PRODUCING 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES 360 METERS ABOVE NORMAL BY             
 00Z TUESDAY.  THIS WILL HELP TO CREATE UPPER LEVEL FLOW ORIGINATING            
 DIRECTLY OUT OF THE ARCTIC AND PRODUCE 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES IN               
 EXCESS OF 280 METERS BELOW NORMAL BY 00Z FRI DOWNSTREAM OVER THE               
 WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN REMARKABLE                   
 AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AS SHOWN BY THE LOW                   
 STANDARD DEVIATIONS WITHIN THE RIDGE AXIS WITH THE LARGEST SPREAD ON           
 THE PERIPHERY WHICH INDICATES UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE               
 RIDGE.  OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS...GFS ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN TRENDING              
 WEST WITH THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR...NOW PLACING IT OVER THE                   
 NORTHERN PLAINS WITH ONSET COMING NEXT THURSDAY.  MAIN FORECAST                
 CONCERNS INCLUDE TIMING OF THESE CLIPPERS AS THEY SLIDE DOWN THE               
 EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE...WITH EACH BRINGING A SLIGHT WARM UP                
 AHEAD OF THEM...AND BITTERLY COLD AIR BEHIND THEM.  ONE OF THESE               
 WAVES IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH NORTHERN MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY...WITH              
 THE NEXT ONE ARRIVING ON THURSDAY.  THE LATTER OF THESE WAVES COULD            
 POTENTIALLY BRING THE COLDEST AIR WE HAVE SEEN THUS FAR THIS WINTER            
 FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  OUTSIDE OF THESE WAVES...LAKE EFFECT SNOW                   
 POTENTIAL WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.                
 MPC                                                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...THIS              
       EVENING...MIZ016>019-021>024-027>030-035-036.                            
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                          
 403 PM EST FRI JAN 26 2007                                                     
 .SYNOPSIS...                                                                   
 WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER WRN ONTARIO/NRN MN           
 WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE PINWHEELING THROUGH CENTRAL                         
 MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN. DOWNSTREAM FROM SHORTWAVES...MID-LVL RDGG               
 OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES HAS RESULTED IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS               
 ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA...EXCEPT FOR SOME UPSLOPE                         
 FLURRIES/PATCHY -FZDZ OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND ERN COUNTIES.               
 BASED ON LATEST RADAR LOOP AND SFC OBS LOOKS LIKE ANY LINGERING LAKE           
 EFFECT SNOW OVER SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY IS WANING DESPITE DECENT                   
 LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG SFC TROF THERE. SO WILL CANCEL SNOW                
 ADVISORY FOR SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY.                                           
 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)...                                                       
 SHORTWAVE OVER WRN ONTARIO IS EXPECTED TO DIVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR            
 TONIGHT AS BEST FORCING FROM THIS FEATURE WILL BE NE OF CWFA.                  
 SHORTWAVE WILL DRIVE SFC TROF NOW OVER FAR WRN UPR MI ACROSS THE               
 REST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY                    
 OVERNIGHT. WIND SHIFTING TO A MORE WNW DIRECTION BEHIND THE TROF               
 SHOULD BRING SOME LES FLURRIES INTO WRN AND PERHAPS INTO CENTRAL               
 COUNTIES AS WELL...BUT AGAIN DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING MORE THAN                  
 FLURRIES GIVEN MARGINALLY COLD 850 MB TEMPS (-9/-10C) AND FAIRLY               
 STRONG SUBSIDENCE INTO THIS EVENING. KEPT IN A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW           
 OR PATCHY -FZDZ OVER THE KEWEENAW AND ERN HALF COUNTIES WHERE                  
 UPSLOPE S-SE FLOW WILL BE PRESENT ALONG SFC TROF AND WEAK FORCING IS           
 POSSIBLE AHEAD OF INCOMING SHORTWAVE.                                          
 AFTER MIDNIGHT...SECONDARY SHORTWAVE APPROACHES WITH BETTER SHOT OF            
 CAA AS 850 MB TEMPS BEGIN TO LOWER TO -14/-16C OVER THE WRN FCST               
 AREA. INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC/CONVERGENT NW FLOW AND MORE FAVORABLE              
 SNOW GROWTH WILL FAVOR NRN GOGEBIC COUNTY THROUGH SRN HOUGHTON                 
 COUNTIES FOR BURSTS OF MORE INTENSE SNOW TOWARD MORNING WITH                   
 ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.                                                
 .LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                        
 THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WAS THIS WEEKEND AND THE INHERITED LAKE              
 EFFECT SNOW WATCHES...AS SOME DECISIONS NEEDED TO BE MADE ON                   
 UPGRADES OR DOWNGRADES. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORIES WERE ALSO                  
 NEEDING TO BE POSTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA.                                  
 AS ON THE FENCE WITH A FEW OF WSW ISSUES THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE.               
 THE FIRST HAS TO DO WITH PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN HOUGHTON                     
 COUNTY...WHERE WARNING CRITERIA IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE.  THE SECOND           
 WAS WITH DELTA COUNTY...WHICH WOULD ALSO BE CLOSE TO THE 12 HOUR               
 ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EXTREME           
 NORTHERN SLIVER OF THE COUNTY.  DECIDED TO GO WITH THE ADVISORY                
 THERE.  THE THIRD THING WOULD BE WITH RESPECT TO NORTHERN KEWEENAW             
 COUNTY...AS WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON            
 INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND GET CLOSE TO BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY             
 CRITERIA. FOR THIS...HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF LOCALIZED BLOWING               
 SNOW TO THE WSW.                                                               
 THE SFC LOW (DOUBLE BARREL LOW CONFIGURATION) CURRENTLY STRETCHING             
 FROM SOUTHWEST ONTARIO TO NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY           
 SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND THEN            
 STRETCH FROM SOUTHEASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TO SOUTHERN LAKE HURON BY              
 12Z SATURDAY.  THIS WILL BEGIN TO TURN OUR WINDS TO A MORE FAVORABLE           
 N-NW DIRECTION QUICKEST WEST 09Z AND 18Z CENTRAL...AND 850 TEMPS OF            
 -4C AT 12Z THIS MORNING OFF OF THE INL SOUNDING WILL BE ALLOWED TO             
 FALL A BETTER LAKE EFFECT TEMPERATURE OF -10C BY 06Z SATURDAY ACROSS           
 THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE...COOLING OFF TO -12 TO -15C BY 12Z                
 SATURDAY...WITH STILL LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AN INVERSION TO SPEAK OF.           
 FOR QPF AMOUNTS...MADE FEW ADJUSTMENTS...STILL LINING UP CLOSER TO             
 THE RUC13 AND REGIONAL CAN.                                                    
 FOR SATURDAY...TEMPS LOOK GOOD FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH                   
 GUIDANCE CLUSTERED AROUND OUR INHERITED VALUES...SEE NO NEED TO MAKE           
 ANY DRASTIC CHANGES.                                                           
 FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY MONDAY               
 BECOME TRICKY.  PLENTY OF COLD AIR WILL BE OVERHEAD...MODERATING BY            
 A COUPLE OF DEGREES C AT 850MB WHEN COMPARED TO SUNDAY.  HIGH CLOUDS           
 WILL ALSO BE SLIDING IN DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS IN OUR                        
 NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.  ENDED UP HEDGING             
 THE TEMPS SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE GFS...WHICH IS ONE OF THE WARMER                
 MODELS GUIDANCE WISE AT THAT TIME.  IN TERMS OF WEATHER AND POPS               
 MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...START OUT THE NIGHT WITH NNE WINDS WHICH           
 WOULD FAVOR JUST KEEPING POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD NEAR LAKE               
 SUPERIOR...WITH A DRYING TREND ELSEWHERE.  SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD             
 BE OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY MORNING...AND THEN            
 PUSH WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND OVER SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN BY 06Z                  
 TUESDAY.  MUCH OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH IT REMAINING TO OUR               
 SOUTH AS WELL...LEAVING THE UPPER PENINSULA TEMPORARILY BETWEEN                
 SYSTEMS.  HAVE OPTED TO LOWER POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT             
 STILL KEEPING 30-40 POPS FOR THE MORE FAVORED EASTERN THIRD.  TAKING           
 A LOOK AT THE GFS ENSEMBLES...THE OPERATIONAL GFS MAY BE ONE OF THE            
 FURTHEST SOUTH OPTIONS FOR THE TROUGH...LEAVING SOME UNCERTAINTY IN            
 PLAY FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  EVEN WITH THIS SAID IT SEEMS TO           
 BE BACKED BY SOME OF THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS INCLUDING THE ECMWF.              
 AS FOR THE EXTENDED (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...                                 
 ACTUALLY WARMED UP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FOR DAYS 6 AND NEW 7                  
 (THURSDAY AND FRIDAY)...UTILIZING LATEST HPC GUIDANCE FOR THAT                 
 PERIOD.  IN FACT WENT ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER...PARTICULARLY ACROSS             
 THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY                   
 AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE THROUGH THIS PERIOD...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO           
 THE INHERITED FORECAST...AS EXTENDED GUIDANCE FOR OUR REGION                   
 CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY WELL IN LINE FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME PERIOD.              
 HPC UTILIZED THE 00Z ECMWF FOR THE START OF THE FORECAST                       
 PERIOD...AND TRANSITIONED TO THE 00Z NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN.                       
 ZONAL FLOW WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH LINGERING MOISTURE HAVE NOT YET BEEN           
 ABLE TO TAKE POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST.  NEXT 500MB TROUGH DIGS IN              
 WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  HAVE INCREASED THE POSSIBILITY OF              
 SYNOPTIC SNOW FOR THURSDAY.                                                    
 &&                                                                             
 .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR             
 MIZ004>006.                                                                    
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ SATURDAY TO 7                
 PM EST /6 PM CST/ SUNDAY FOR MIZ002-009.                                       
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 10 PM EST                     
 SUNDAY FOR MIZ001-003.                                                         
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY                
 FOR MIZ013-085.                                                                
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 .SHORT TERM...KF                                                               
 .LONG TERM...JV                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                            
 400 PM EST FRI JAN 26 2007                                                     
 .DISCUSSION...MID AFTERNOON SATELLITE/SURFACE/RADAR/AND RUC ANALYSIS           
 SHOW BASIC MID LEVEL CONFIGURATION OF THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS (AND               
 FOR MANY MORE DAYS TO COME...SEE EXTENDED DISCUSSION BELOW)                    
 REMAINING IN PLACE WITH WESTERN NOAM LONG WAVE RIDGE AND SUBSEQUENT            
 DOWNSTREAM CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. EASTERN CONUS TROUGH              
 ABOUT TO BE REINFORCED AS VIGOROUS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...AND             
 ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS...IS DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL                   
 MANITOBA. AT THE SURFACE...ELONGATED 999MB LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM           
 WESTERN ONTARIO TO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. SURFACE WARM FRONT EXTENDING            
 EAST FROM THE LOW OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN RACING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST           
 AS LOW AND MID LEVEL WAA ADVECTION CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF            
 SYSTEM. FARTHER WEST...FIRST IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS USHERING IN            
 PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR EXTENDS FROM EASTERN PLAINS SOUTHWEST                 
 THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. REGIONAL RADAR PLOTS SHOW WHAT REMAINS             
 OF THIS MORNINGS FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED SNOWFALL SLIDING EAST OVER           
 EASTERN LAKE HURON. WITH BEST DYNAMICS AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE                  
 PULLING OFF TO THE EAST...NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SEEING WIDESPREAD            
 AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FINE SNOWFLAKES WITH BULK OF               
 REMAINING MOISTURE REMAINING BELOW -10C...PER 12Z MODEL POINT                  
 SOUNDINGS. FORECAST CONCERNS TONIGHT CENTER ON FREEZING DRIZZLE                
 POTENTIAL THIS EVENING WITH SNOWFALL POTENTIAL TAKING CENTER STAGE             
 LATER TONIGHT.                                                                 
 TONIGHT...12 MODEL SUITE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT SHOWING MANITOBA               
 SHORTWAVE CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST...TO A POSITION AT THE                   
 NORTHEAST END OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY MORNING. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW              
 TRACKS RIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...WITH TRAILING COLD           
 FRONT CLEARING THE AREA TOWARDS MORNING. ALTHOUGH SURFACE SYSTEM               
 SLIDES THROUGH THE HEART OF THE AREA...BEST MID AND UPPER LEVEL                
 SUPPORT FOR SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION REMAINS NORTH OF THE                        
 REGION...CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE. MODEL POINT SOUNDINGS FOR THE                
 NORTHERN LOWER CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGH THIS               
 EVENING WITH LIMITED MID LEVEL MOISTURE...SATURATED CONDITIONS BELOW           
 -10C...AND SOME WEAK SHEAR AT TOP OF INVERSION. FARTHER                        
 NORTH...EASTERN UPPER MORE MARGINAL ACCORDING TO SOUNDINGS AND WILL            
 MENTION SNOW SHOWER/FREEZING DRIZZLE MIX WITH LESS ICE ACCUMULATION            
 EXPECTED. ALSO SOME CONCERN ALONG THE SAINT MARYS RIVER OF SOME                
 SOUTHEAST FLOW LAKE HURON ENHANCEMENT WITH EVENING DELTA T/S IN THE            
 LOW TEENS. SOME EVIDENCE OF THIS ALREADY OCCURING WITH THE SOO                 
 REPORTING LIGHT SNOW FOR SEVERAL HOURS DESPITE DYNAMICAL FORCING NOW           
 WELL OFF TO THEIR NORTHEAST. LAST FEW SCANS OF MONTREAL RIVER CANADA           
 RADAR SHOWS EXPANDING AREA OF LIGHT SNOW AT THE NORTHWEST END OF THE           
 NORTH CHANNEL...WHICH ALSO MIGHT BE A SIGN OF SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT            
 KICKING IN. HAVE LEFT LIKELY POPS THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS             
 WITH ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH RIGHT ALONG THE RIVER SYSTEM. AFTER           
 MIDNIGHT...WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST FLOW CAA KICKS IN WITH 850MB                 
 TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO -11C TO -12C OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN              
 AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. MID LEVEL COOLING COMBINED WITH SOME                
 SCOURING OUT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PUT AN END TO THE FREEZING           
 DRIZZLE THREAT. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW                 
 POTENTIAL AS DELTA T/S DROP TO RIGHT AROUND 13C. BUFKIT AND POINT              
 SOUNDING ANALYSIS SHOWS INVERSION LEVELS OF ONLY ABOUT 3.5KFT AND              
 850MB-700MB MOISTURE <50 PERCENT OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND >70           
 PERCENT OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. DID TRIM POPS SOME IN FAVORED              
 WEST NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS OF THE NORTHERN LOWER. KEPT POPS IN HIGH             
 CHANCE CATEGORY NEAR WHITEFISH POINT WITH LONGER FETCH LENGTH AND              
 BETTER MID LEVEL MOISTURE.                                                     
 MARINE...COMPLICATED MARINE FORECAST OVERNIGHT AS WINDS VEER AROUND            
 NORTHWESTERLY. WILL LEAVE CURRENT SCA FOR SELECTED NEARSHORE WATERS            
 OF LAKE HURON AND MICHIGAN THROUGH THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT PRIMARILY           
 FOR GUST SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. AFTER A LULL LATER THIS                     
 EVENING...WINDS WEST NORTHWEST WINDS PICK UP OVER NORTHERN LAKE                
 MICHIGAN. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED NORWOOD MICHIGAN TO THE BRIDGE             
 NEARSHORE ZONE TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN GROUP TO ACCOUNT PRIMARILY FOR             
 WAVES. WILL LET LAKE HURON NEARSHORE WATERS EXPIRE AS WIND FIELDS              
 TAKE LONGER TO ORGANIZE.                                                       
 MSB                                                                            
 LATER PERIODS...ACTIVE PERIOD SHAPING UP AS A SERIES OF CLIPPERS               
 WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.  FIRST OF THESE                 
 SYSTEMS WILL ARRIVE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A SECOND CLOSE BEHIND           
 IT MOVING IN ON SUNDAY.  THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A PERIOD OF               
 ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS FOR EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHWEST LOWER           
 MICHIGAN.  THIS LATTER SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING A SURGE OF BELOW                 
 NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOKS ONLY TO BE A PRECURSOR OF WHAT IS            
 TO COME LATER NEXT WEEK.  OTHER CLIPPERS TAKE AIM ON THE GREAT LAKES           
 ON TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.  THE LAST IN THE SERIES OF WAVES COULD                
 POTENTIALLY BRING SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR IN YEARS TO THE GREAT                
 LAKES FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS AIR ORIGINATING DIRECTLY OUT OF THE NORTH            
 POLE DIVES SOUTH.  MODELS IN GENERAL HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON              
 THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.  HAVE MOSTLY USED A             
 BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF...AND HAVE MIXED IN A LITTLE OF THE NAM             
 THROUGH ABOUT 48 TO 60 HOURS OUT.                                              
 TOMORROW...STRONG SHORTWAVE AS SEEN ON WV IMAGERY OVER MANITOBA WILL           
 PASS ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE BEST FORCING ARRIVING ACROSS LOWER                
 MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON.  AS THE SHORTWAVE                               
 APPROACHES...850-700MB RH VALUES BECOME NEARLY SATURATED AND                   
 INVERSION HEIGHTS INCREASE FROM 4KFT AT 12Z TO 7KFT BY 00Z SUN.                
 850MB TEMPERATURES START OUT MARGINAL FOR LAKE EFFECT BETWEEN -10C             
 AND -12C CREATING DELTA T`S AROUND 13C TO 15C...BUT COLD ADVECTION             
 OVER THE COURSE OF THE MORNING WILL CREATE A MORE FAVORABLE                    
 THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FOR LAKE EFFECT (DELTA T`S INCREASE BY A                 
 COUPLE DEGREES BY 18Z AND A COUPLE DEGREES MORE BY 00Z).  SECONDARY            
 COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY                      
 00Z...WHOSE ADDED CONVERGENCE WILL HELP BOOST ONGOING LAKE EFFECT              
 SNOW.  BECAUSE OF THE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SNOW               
 DURING THE AFTERNOON...WILL KEEP CHANCEY TO LIKELY ACROSS LAKE                 
 EFFECT PRONE AREAS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND CATEGORICAL OVER             
 THESE SAME AREAS FOR THE AFTERNOON.  SNOW AMOUNTS WILL PROBABLY IN             
 THE 1-3 INCH RANGE FOR THE LAKE EFFECT AREAS NEAR WHITEFISH POINT              
 AND THE TYPICAL CORRIDOR ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER.                               
 SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY... LEADING SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST            
 AND CLEAR THE CWA DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  HOWEVER...SECONDARY               
 SHORTWAVE WILL MAINTAIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THIS PERIOD AND DRIVE           
 AN ARCTIC FRONT SOUTH OVERNIGHT.  GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING SLOWER WITH            
 THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM OVER THE PAST COUPLE           
 DAYS.  STRONG COLD ADVECTION ENSUES BEHIND THIS FRONT AS WNW WINDS             
 SHIFT TO THE NNW OR DUE NORTH DIRECTION AND WILL USHER IN 850MB                
 TEMPS BELOW -20C. IN ADDITION...MODEL 850-700MB RH FIELDS KEEP                 
 PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITHIN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW...WHILE INVERSION                 
 HEIGHTS REMAIN HIGH ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER (ABOVE 6KFT) BUT DECREASE           
 ACROSS EASTERN UPPER ON SUNDAY SINCE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL BE             
 EXITING HERE FIRST.   THIS APPEARS TO BE A PRETTY GOOD SETUP FROM A            
 LAKE EFFECT STANDPOINT WITH SHARP LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE           
 REGION TO ENHANCE CONVERGENCE.  WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE             
 NORTHEAST FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...AND           
 ONSHORE NW TO N FLOW ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER (WITH THE STRONGEST                
 FORCING)...EXPECT THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS TO OCCUR ACROSS                    
 NORTHWEST LOWER AND WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE GRIDS.  HAVE THOUGHT              
 ABOUT A PUTTING UP A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH...BUT UNCERTAINTY WITH             
 THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING AND THE CORRESPONDING VEERING OF WINDS              
 HAS MADE IT QUITE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AN AREA WHICH CAN                      
 CONFIDENTLY SAY WILL GET THE MOST SNOW.  WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR           
 ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS NE LOWER OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH           
 THE SHARP NE FLOW IN PLACE.                                                    
 SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE                 
 OVERNIGHT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.  WITH THE            
 UPPER TROUGH EXITING...1000-850MB WINDS BACK FROM THE NNW TO WNW               
 WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES (-20C) HARDLY WARMING WHATSOEVER...AND                 
 INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY.  THEREFORE...BELIEVE              
 THE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE                 
 PERIOD SO WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS (LIKELY) GOING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND            
 LOWER POPS (CHANCE) FOR WNW FLOW AREAS ON MONDAY.  NEXT CLIPPER                
 SYSTEM DIVES SE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY.  TIMING OF THIS            
 SYSTEM STILL A LITTLE SUSPECT WITH THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY SPEEDIER WITH            
 THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW (REACHES SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN) THAN THE           
 GFS (NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY) BY 00Z TUES. A LOOK AT THE             
 GFS/GEM ENSEMBLES SUGGESTS A COMPROMISE IS IN ORDER (NORTHERN ILL)             
 AND THEREFORE WE SHOULD SEE INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS                  
 THROUGH THE DAY...BUT ENOUGH DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE TO PREVENT               
 SNOW TO REACH THE SURFACE OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT AREAS.  HIGH              
 TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ONCE AGAIN...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO              
 MIDDLE TEENS.                                                                  
 TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN VERY GOOD                
 AGREEMENT WITH THE UPCOMING PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK...AND ITS A                  
 PATTERN THAT LOOKS BITTERLY COLD FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH                 
 AMERICA BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD. STRONG WESTERN NOAM RIDGE                   
 STRENGTHENS AS IT RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY FROM THE YUKON TO EASTERN               
 ALASKA PRODUCING 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES 360 METERS ABOVE NORMAL BY             
 00Z TUESDAY.  THIS WILL HELP TO CREATE UPPER LEVEL FLOW ORIGINATING            
 DIRECTLY OUT OF THE ARCTIC AND PRODUCE 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES IN               
 EXCESS OF 280 METERS BELOW NORMAL BY 00Z FRI DOWNSTREAM OVER THE               
 WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN REMARKABLE                   
 AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AS SHOWN BY THE LOW                   
 STANDARD DEVIATIONS WITHIN THE RIDGE AXIS WITH THE LARGEST SPREAD ON           
 THE PERIPHERY WHICH INDICATES UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE               
 RIDGE.  OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS...GFS ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN TRENDING              
 WEST WITH THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR...NOW PLACING IT OVER THE                   
 NORTHERN PLAINS WITH ONSET COMING NEXT THURSDAY.  MAIN FORECAST                
 CONCERNS INCLUDE TIMING OF THESE CLIPPERS AS THEY SLIDE DOWN THE               
 EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE...WITH EACH BRINGING A SLIGHT WARM UP                
 AHEAD OF THEM...AND BITTERLY COLD AIR BEHIND THEM.  ONE OF THESE               
 WAVES IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH NORTHERN MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY...WITH              
 THE NEXT ONE ARRIVING ON THURSDAY.  THE LATTER OF THESE WAVES COULD            
 POTENTIALLY BRING THE COLDEST AIR WE HAVE SEEN THUS FAR THIS WINTER            
 FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  OUTSIDE OF THESE WAVES...LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL WILL    
 KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.                               
 MPC                                                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...                  
 THIS EVENING...MIZ016-036>041-042.                                             
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                    
 103 PM EST FRI JAN 26 2007                                                     
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 THE LARGE AREA OF SNOW THAT WAS AFFECTING THE REGION THIS MORNING              
 CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AND WANE VERY QUICKLY...ALTHOUGH             
 THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON TO SUPPORT A                 
 BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN LOWER              
 MICHIGAN THERE IS CLEARING AND THAT IS PUSHING TOWARDS THE DETROIT             
 AREA. THERE IS ENOUGH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY TO PRECLUDE THE                     
 CLEARING OF SKIES COMPLETELY FOR KDTW AND KDET. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON           
 WILL START SOUTHEASTERLY AND VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST THIS                   
 EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.                                                         
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1036 AM EST FRI JAN 26 2007                          
 UPDATE...                                                                      
 SNOW HAS INCREASED IN INTENSITY THIS MORNING WITH VISIBILITIES                 
 DOWN TO LESS THAN 1 MILE. NICE FGEN FORCING PER THE 12Z RUC ON THE             
 750MB SURFACE WHICH SLIDES NORTHEAST OF THE CWA BETWEEN 17Z-18Z.               
 FURTHERMORE...ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM THE ENTRANCE REGION OF 130KT                
 JET CENTERED OVER BUFFALO NY IS AIDING IN ADDITIONAL LIFT.                     
 IMPRESSIVE WARM ADVECTION AND MID LEVEL DRY SLOT IS STILL EXPECTED             
 TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON SOUNDINGS FROM              
 THE RUC AND THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEW NAM...FREEZING DRIZZLE LOOKS                
 GOOD AS WE LOSE MOISTURE AT THE DENDRITIC ICE GROWTH REGION.                   
 TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE 20S AND MIGHT                  
 CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT...                                          
 PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 341 AM                                             
 SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT                                                 
 TRICKY FORECAST TODAY AS A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW SPREADS INTO THE AREA            
 THIS MORNING IN WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. THIS SNOW WILL AMOUNT TO            
 AN INCH OR TWO...WITH THE BEST ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL ALONG AND TO             
 THE NORTHEAST OF I-75 OR SO. THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUTOFF IN LIGHT             
 SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE SOUTHWEST AS DRY AIR WORKS QUICKLY INTO THE           
 AREA WITHIN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME.                                  
 THIS INTRUSION OF DRY AIR WILL FIRST STRIP AWAY MID AND UPPER LEVEL            
 MOISTURE...LEADING TO PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER FROM LIGHT SNOW TO           
 FREEZING DRIZZLE AS SEMI-SATURATED PORTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES           
 LIMITED TO AREAS BELOW 800 MB...AND BELOW -10C...THUS LIMITING THE             
 POTENTIAL FOR ICE NUCLEATION AND SNOWFLAKE PRODUCTION.                         
 WITHIN THIS PROCESS...THE DRY SLOT MAY EVEN ELIMINATE ENOUGH OF THE            
 LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO END OR AT LEAST LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF DRIZZLE              
 OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA...ESPECIALLY BY AFTERNOON.                               
 WITH THIS MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION...AND AFTER COORDINATION WITH               
 SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL BE GOING WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY             
 TODAY FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHERNMOST TWO COUNTIES IN THE CWA. THE                
 SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS ADVISORY WILL HAVE THE LIGHTEST PRECIPITATION            
 BUT MOST FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL -VS- LIGHT SNOW...AND THE                  
 NORTHEAST THUMB REGION WILL HAVE BETTER SNOW ACCUMULATION...BUT                
 LIMITED FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ALL IN ALL...THE              
 PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT...BUT WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE             
 SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS AT THE START OF THE EVENT...THE DRIZZLE BY              
 LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WILL HAVE LITTLE PROBLEM FREEZING TO              
 SURFACES.                                                                      
 WILL LIMIT THE ADVISORY TO THE FIRST PERIOD AND ALLOW THE DAYSHIFT             
 TO EVALUATE JUST HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS                
 EVENING. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE MOST WIDESPREAD FREEZING                
 DRIZZLE AND/OR LIGHT SNOW BY THIS EVENING WILL BE LIMITED TO AREAS             
 ALONG/NORTH OF I-69 OR PERHAPS THE M-59 CORRIDOR. THE ADVISORY MAY             
 VERY WELL NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO TONIGHT IN SOME AREAS.                      
 LONG TERM...                                                                   
 NEXT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR TO IMPACT SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS                     
 WEEKEND...LIKELY LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING                      
 SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE THUMB REGION.                                     
 TOO FAR OUT TO PIN DOWN THE DETAILS OF ANY LAKE HURON BANDS...AS               
 TIMING AND STRENGTH OF UPPER WAVES AS SEEN ON DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE               
 VARY BETWEEN 00Z UKMET/NAM AND GFS. HOWEVER...WITH ALL MODELS                  
 SHOWING A WELL DEFINED SURFACE TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHERN                
 LOWER MICHIGAN AND 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO AT LEAST -18 C...SNOW               
 SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE A GOOD BET AND HAVE RAISED POPS TO 50 PERCENT             
 SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...WITH             
 LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE THUMB REGION BY SUNDAY. POPS FOR ONE OR BOTH            
 OF THOSE PERIODS WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO BE BUMPED UP AS TIMING OF THE           
 UPPER WAVES BECOME CLEARER.                                                    
 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER                  
 CENTRAL CANADA (ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA) WITH MULTIPLE VORTS             
 ROTATING ABOUT. 00Z UKMET/CANADIAN GLOBAL SHOW ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH            
 MOVING THROUGH BY 00Z SUNDAY...WHILE NAM/GFS ARE GOOD 6+ HOURS                 
 SLOWER. THOSE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH AMPLIFYING UPPER             
 WAVE DIVING SOUTH FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES...LEADING TO                  
 POTENTIAL CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB MOVING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN ON                
 SUNDAY.                                                                        
 AS FAR AS TEMPS GO FOR THE WEEKEND...GFS MOS MAXES ON SATURDAY LOOK            
 A LITTLE TOO WARM WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION DURING THE                
 DAY AND 925 MB TEMPS FORECASTED TO DROP BELOW -3 C BY 12Z SATURDAY             
 (BLENDING GFS/NAM). WITH CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY                      
 NIGHT...WOULD EXPECT MINS TO HOLD IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20. GFS MOS           
 GUIDANCE TEMP LOOK GOOD FOR SUNDAY...UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S...A              
 COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY`S AIRMASS. YESTERDAY`S DTX                
 SOUNDING CAME IN WITH -20 C AT 850MB...WHILE A BLEND OF THE                    
 UKMET/GFS/NAM PUTS THE 850 MB TEMP AT -18 C BY 00Z MONDAY.                     
 BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AND LINGERING MOISTURE UP TO 700 MB STILL                  
 SUPPORTS A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SHORTWAVE            
 RIDGING MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. WITH THE              
 LINGERING CLOUDS AND GRADIENT SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LEAVE THE MINS IN            
 THE SINGLE DIGITS.                                                             
 00Z EUROPEAN/GFS/CANADIAN GLOBAL ALL SHOWING AN UPPER WAVE/TROUGH              
 SWINGING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...WORTHY OF A CHANCE OF LIGHT            
 SNOW AS A SURFACE REFLECTION IS ALSO FORECASTED TO MOVE THROUGH.               
 &&                                                                             
 .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...MIZ047-MIZ048-MIZ049-MIZ053-MIZ054-             
      MIZ055-MIZ060-MIZ061-MIZ062-MIZ063-MIZ068-MIZ069-MIZ070-                  
      MIZ075-MIZ076 UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY.                                          
 LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT H
      SATURDAY.                                                                 
 LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                          
 MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                 
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SHORT TERM...BGM                                                               
 LONG TERM....SF                                                                
 AVIATION...CB                                                                  
 YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE           
 AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                   
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                            
 1250 PM EST FRI JAN 26 2007                                                    
 .UPDATE...FREEZING DRIZZLE RAPIDLY EXPANDING NORTH OVER NORTHERN               
 LOWER MICHIGAN AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY PULLS OFF TO THE EAST.            
 HERE AT THE OFFICE STEADY FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS OCCURRED OVER THE               
 PAST HOUR WITH A GENERAL SURFACE COATING. SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD                  
 POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE TO SPREAD AS FAR NORTH AS              
 THE BRIDGE...WITH MORE OF A SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL OVER               
 EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH            
 THIS EVENING UNTIL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES. THEREFORE...HAVE              
 GONE AHEAD AND EXPANDED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL OF NORTHERN            
 MICHIGAN AND EXTENDED THE ADVISORY THROUGH MIDNIGHT...FOR A                    
 COMBINATION OF THE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING AND                
 LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL LEAVE                  
 EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN OUT OF THE ADVISORY AS SOUNDINGS REMAIN                 
 MARGINAL FOR WIDESPREAD FREEZING DRIZZLE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.            
 MSB                                                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 1123 AM EST FRI JAN 26 2007                       
 UPDATE...IMPRESSIVE NORTH/SOUTH 850MB-650MB THERMAL GRADIENT                   
 ESTABLISHED RIGHT OVER THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.            
 WEST WINDS OF 40 TO 60 KNOTS THROUGH THIS LAYER (PER BLUE RIVER                
 WISCONSIN PROFILER AND 12Z GREEN BAY SOUNDING) PERPENDICULARLY                 
 BISECTING TEMPERATURE GRADIENT...LEADING TO IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC              
 UPGLIDE AND FRONTOGENETICAL RESPONSE. AS A RESULT...LARGE AREA OF              
 SNOW RAPIDLY BROKE OUT THIS MORNING...WITH GENERAL ACCUMULATION OF 1           
 TO 2 INCHES SO FAR. LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS THIS             
 AREA RAPIDLY ADVANCING EAST. MID LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY SCOURING OUT           
 BEHIND THIS SNOWFALL WHILE LOW LEVELS (BELOW -10C) REMAIN SATURATED.           
 FREEZING DRIZZLE ALREADY BREAKING OUT OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND              
 SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN WITH A RECENT REPORT FROM THE GRAND               
 RAPIDS OFFICE OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OCCURING AT BIG                        
 RAPIDS...WITH A LIGHT COATING ALREADY OBSERVED ON CARS. FORECAST               
 CONCERNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY CENTER ON TIMING EXIT OF                 
 STEADY SNOW WITH PRIMARY FOCUS ON EXPANDING AREA OF LIGHT FREEZING             
 DRIZZLE AND ASSOCIATED WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES.                               
 RADAR EXTRAPOLATION INDICATES CATEGORICAL SNOW SHOULD EXIT OFF TO              
 THE EAST BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF                 
 ACCUMULATION OVER EASTERN AREAS. LATEST 12Z NAM-WRF GUIDANCE                   
 CONTINUES PREVIOUS IDEA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE RAPIDLY SCOURING                 
 OUT...LEAVING A SATURATED SOUNDING BELOW -10C. THUS...THE THREAT OF            
 FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME WIND SHEAR NOTED           
 IN THIS LAYER ALONG WITH SOME WEAK LIFT. BIGGEST CHANGE FROM                   
 OVERNIGHT THINKING WAS TO EXPAND THIS AREA NORTH THROUGH THE ENTIRE            
 CWA. STILL THINKING BIGGEST IMPACT AND MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL           
 REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN SECTION OF THE AREA. WILL                
 THEREFORE CONTINUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 5 PM FOR THIS               
 AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR ANY             
 NEED FOR EXPANSION OF ADVISORY NORTHWARD.                                      
 MARINE...SEVERAL REPORTS OF WIND GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS OVER                  
 SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. EXPECT THIS AREA TO EXPAND NORTHWARD AS PRESSURE           
 GRADIENT STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF ALBERTA CLIPPER DROPPING INTO WESTERN            
 UPPER MICHIGAN. WILL ISSUE SCA FOR SOUTHERN TWO NEARSHORE ZONES OF             
 LAKE MICHIGAN AND FOR ALL BUT SOUTHERN NEARSHORE ZONE ON LAKE HURON.           
 MSB                                                                            
 PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 446 AM EST FRI JAN 26 2007                         
 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/UPPER AIR PLOTS REVEALING DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH            
 AND DEPARTING CORE OF COLD AIR CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...AND            
 LONG WAVE RIDGE SITTING OVER WESTERN NOAM. SHORT WAVE NOTED DROPPING           
 SE THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE               
 EAST...AND THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR US OVER THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS.               
 AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO             
 THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING...WHILE LOW PRESSURE (ASSOCIATED              
 WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE) ANALYZED NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG. WARM                
 FRONT EXTENDS SSE FROM THE LOW INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WHILE A COLD             
 FRONT TRAILS BACK ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. REGIONAL RADAR PLOT                  
 SHOWING SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ALONG THE TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT              
 ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT...TRYING TO           
 WORK INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING...BUT LITTLE MORE THAN FLURRIES              
 REPORTED IN OBS AT THIS POINT. FINALLY...KAPX RADAR SHOWING SOME               
 RESIDUAL LIGHT LAKE EFFECT FLURRY ACTIVITY OVER NW LOWER MICHIGAN ON           
 THE BACKING WEST FLOW.                                                         
 IMMEDIATE FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TODAY            
 WITH A QUICK SHOT OF STRONG F-GENT/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ROLLING THROUGH           
 THE REGION AHEAD OF THE WAVE...BOLSTERED BY ANY LAKE CONTRIBUTION.             
 TODAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOW IN CONTROL FORECAST TO QUICKLY RETREAT           
 SOUTHWARD EARLY THIS MORNING AS UPSTREAM SFC LOW/ASSOCIATED MID                
 LEVEL WAVE DROP INTO THE REGION. THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN           
 GREAT LAKES FORECAST TO RAPIDLY TIGHTEN THIS MORNING WITH A NICE               
 SHOT OF LOW-MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT/NET ADIABATIC OMEGA SLIDING            
 W-E THROUGH THE REGION...FOCUSED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF LOWER              
 MICHIGAN. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS TAKEN PERPENDICULAR TO THE THERMAL              
 GRADIENT SHOWING A FOCUSED REGION OF W-E SLOPED 2-D FGEN DEVELOPING            
 OVER NRN MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING. BEST RESPONSE/MODEL OMEGA                
 AGAIN INDICATED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF LOWER MICHIGAN WITH THE             
 MODEL OMEGA MAX INTERSECTING THE IDEAL -12C TO -18C THERMAL REGIME             
 OVER THE W/WSW QUARTER OF THE CWA (PERHAPS AROUND HTL TO CAD IF THE            
 MODEL IS DEAD ON). FORTUNATELY...IT DOES NOT LAST LONG...ON THE                
 ORDER OF 3 HOURS OR SO. BUT WITHIN THAT TIMEFRAME POTENTIAL IS THERE           
 FOR A NICE AREA OF BANDED MOD-HEAVY SNOWFALL TO DEVELOP OVER THE               
 AREA MENTIONED AND TO GET A QUICK 1-3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION.                  
 MEANWHILE FLOW BACKING INTO THE SW MAY ALSO GET A FEW HOURS OF LAKE            
 ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN FROM MANISTEE UP TO LEELANAU COUNTY              
 BEFORE THE FLOW CONTINUES ON AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY LATE MORNING.              
 ALL TOLD...WILL UP POPS TO CATEGORICAL THIS MORNING FOR THE ENTIRE             
 CWA BUT FOCUS BEST ACCUMULATIONS FROM HTL/GOV OVER TO MBL/FRANKFORT            
 AND LEELANAU COUNTY. THEN...BY LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON             
 FGEN/WARM ADVECTION FORCING DIMINISHES WHILE LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE            
 STRIPS OUT W-E. EARLIER CONCERNS OVER FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE                  
 AFTERNOON CERTAINLY LOOK JUSTIFIED ACROSS THE S/SW PORTION OF THE              
 CWA AS REMAINING SATURATED LOW LEVELS ENTIRELY WARMER THAN -6C TO              
 -8C WITH MOISTURE POKING UP ABOVE THE INVERSION (A TELLTALE DRIZZLE            
 SOUNDING). THERMAL PROFILES REMAIN JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR -FZDZ/-SN              
 THE FURTHER NORTH YOU GO AND JUST SNOW IN EASTERN UPPER. SO...WITH             
 MORNING SNOWFALL OF 1-3 INCHES (POSSIBLY BETTER) COMBINED WITH                 
 AFTERNOON FREEZING DRIZZLE...PROBABLY ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WINTER               
 WEATHER ADVISORY TODAY ACROSS THE S/SW PART OF THE CWA.                        
 TONIGHT...SFC LOW EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF             
 THE STATE...WITH WINDS TURNING NW AND COLDER AIR ONCE AGAIN OOZING             
 INTO THE REGION. STILL FAIRLY DRY ALOFT AND SHALLOW SATURATED LOWER            
 LAYERS WARMER THAN -10C REMAIN A CONCERN OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE              
 CWA DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE                      
 POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH SHRINKING INVERSION HEIGHTS AND MOISTURE DEPTH             
 MAY DIMINISH THE THREAT. WILL NOT CARRY THE ADVISORY INTO THE                  
 EVENING HOURS WITH THAT THOUGHT IN MIND BUT DAY SHIFT WILL WANT TO             
 CONSIDER EXTENDING ADVISORIES IF NEED BE. WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW                 
 CHANCES GOING ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WHERE COLDEST THERMAL              
 PROFILE RESIDES. MAY ACTUALLY SEE SOME DECENT SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE            
 HURON UP THROUGH THE SAINT MARYS SYSTEM THIS EVENING WITH SE LOW               
 LEVEL FLOW. EVENING SHIFT WILL WANT TO WATCH FOR THAT. THEN...WITH             
 WINDS TURNING NW...COLDER AIR FILTERING DOWN INTO THE REGION                   
 OVERNIGHT...FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD FINALLY COME TO AN END FOR MOST            
 AREAS WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BECOMING MORE PROMINENT OFF                
 LAKES MICHIGAN AND SUPERIOR.                                                   
 SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO                 
 SLOWLY PULL AWAY EAST OF THE STATE WHILE SHARP LOW LEVEL TROUGHING             
 LINGERS BACK ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA. MODELS INSIST ON DRAGGING             
 THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT DOWN THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY NIGHT               
 WITH SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR THEN ARRIVING FOR THE LATTER HALF OF             
 THE WEEKEND. WILL SEE HOW THAT PLAYS OUT AS THE MODELS OFTEN ARE TOO           
 FAST WITH THIS SCENARIO (I.E. SFC TROUGH HOLDS ACROSS THE NORTH                
 MUCH LONGER THAN FORECAST). AT ANY RATE...WILL KEEP SCT-NUMEROUS               
 SNOW SHOWERS GOING FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER THE NW FLOW             
 AREAS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. BEST ACCUMULATIONS ON SATURDAY MAY BE               
 FOUND ACROSS THE U.P. AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WITH THE SHARP                
 TROUGH/STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THIS AREA. THEN FOR                 
 SATURDAY NIGHT...IF TROUGH MANAGES TO DROP SOUTH FOLLOWED BY MUCH              
 COLDER AIR AND WINDS TURNING INTO THE NORTH...POSSIBILITIES FOR                
 ANOTHER GOOD LAKE EFFECT EVENT AROUND THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY REGION            
 OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.                                                         
 SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES MADE TO THE                    
 FORECAST. OVERALL...COLD WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE               
 INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE TIMING ADDITIONAL           
 WAVES THROUGH THE REGION AND PINPOINTING SYNOPTIC/LAKE EFFECT                  
 THROUGH TUESDAY. PERHAPS A BRIEF BREAK ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE              
 SCOOTS THROUGH THE REGION...ALREADY REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST WITH             
 JUST LOW CHANCY POPS. ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM CURRENTLY SLATED             
 FOR TUESDAY.                                                                   
 ADAM                                                                           
 &&                                                                             
 .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...                  
 TODAY AND THIS EVENING...MIZ016-036>041-042.                                   
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                             
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                          
 1200 PM EST FRI JAN 26 2007                                                    
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 MID-LVL DRYING IN ADVANCE OF CLIPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN FROM                
 MANITOBA HAS EXTENDED A BIT FARTHER E OVER THE FCST AREA AS NOTED ON           
 12Z NAM AND RUC SNDGS AND CONFIRMED BY LOCAL TAMDAR SNDGS.                     
 THUS...HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO LOW CHC OVER MUCH OF THE ERN FCST             
 AREA AND ALSO SPREAD POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES/FZDZ MIX INTO THESE                
 COUNTIES AS WELL. SNDG PROFILE SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR POSSIBLE FZDZ             
 GIVEN MID-LVL DRYING AND LOW-LVL MOISTURE BARELY REACHING TOWARD               
 -10C ISOTHERM.                                                                 
 WRESTLED A BIT WITH IDEA OF TAKING SNOW ADVISORY DOWN FOR SRN                  
 SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY GIVEN DEGREE OF MID-LVL DRYING AND MARGINALLY               
 COLD TEMPS FOR DECENT LAKE ENHANCEMENT. HOWEVER...RUC AND NAM MODELS           
 STILL INDICATE GOOD LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE FOCUSED OVER SRN SCHOOLCRAFT           
 COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON SO IN THE END DECIDED TO KEEP THE ADVISORY               
 HEADLINE GOING AND MENTIONED ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMS OF 1-3".                   
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 THERE ARE TWO BIG FCST CONCERNS EARLY THIS MORNING. FIRST IS LAKE              
 ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL IN SRLY FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. SECOND                   
 CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND UPCOMING HEADLINE LAKE EFFECT EVENT SAT/SUN.           
 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A DEEP VORTEX DESCENDING             
 OVER NEW ENGLAND. NW FLOW AROUND THE WRN SIDE OF THIS VORTEX IS                
 DOMINATING THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...             
 UPSTREAM A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE LOOKING SHORTWAVE IS HEADING SE THRU              
 SASKATCHEWAN. 00Z SOUNDING FROM CWEG IN ALBERTA SHOWED A RESPECTABLE           
 12HR 500MB HEIGHT FALL OF 140M WITH THIS SYSTEM. AHEAD OF THE                  
 SHORTWAVE...POOL OF VERY WARM AIR DUE MOSTLY TO DOWNSLOPING OFF THE            
 ROCKIES HAS PUSHED OUT OVER THE NRN PLAINS. 00Z RAOBS SHOWED 850MB             
 TEMPS ALL THE WAY UP TO 11C AT KBIS AND 14C AT KUNR. THIS WAA HAS              
 LED TO A BAND OF MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES           
 REGION...AND SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOW CONVECTIVE              
 ELEMENTS IN THE CLOUD BAND. 00Z KINL SOUNDING DID SHOW DRY-ADIABATIC           
 LAPSE RATE BTWN 650 AND 550MB. SO FAR...ONLY SPOTTY -SN/FLURRIES               
 HAVE BEEN NOTED. LACK OF PCPN IS DUE TO DRY AIRMASS PER 00Z                    
 KINL/KGRB SOUNDINGS. DRY AIR IS NOT TOO SUBSTANTIAL THOUGH AND WOULD           
 EXPECT PCPN COVERAGE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH TIME.                          
 MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TAKING SHORTWAVE OVER SASKATCHEWAN TO             
 JUST NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z SAT. ON THIS TRACK...IMPRESSIVE DEEP           
 LAYER FORCING INDICATED BY NAM/GFS 850/500MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE               
 WILL PASS JUST NE OF UPPER MI THIS EVENING. EVEN SO...NW-SE ORIENTED           
 MODEST DEEP LAYER FORCING WILL CONTINUE ALL DAY ACROSS MOST OF THE             
 FCST AREA. AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...BROAD/ELONGATED SFC                   
 LOW PRES CURRENTLY OVER MANITOBA WILL SLIDE ESE TO CNTRL UPPER MI/NW           
 LAKE SUPERIOR. GIVEN FORCING AND LOCATION OF STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL           
 CONVERGENCE ACROSS CNTRL UPPER MI ALONG SFC TROF/WARM FRONT                    
 EXTENDING SE FROM APPROACHING LOW PRES...EXPECT MORE PERSISTENT -SN            
 TO TAKE SHAPE OVER ROUGHLY THE E HALF OF FCST AREA TODAY. STRONG               
 ISENTROPIC ASCENT (290K SFC OR ROUGHLY 700-750MB) IS SET FOR THE               
 MORNING HRS THOUGH...SO HEAVIER SNOW SHOULD OCCUR THIS MORNING. THIS           
 BRINGS UP THE PROSPECT FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT OVER THE SE FCST AREA AS           
 850MB TEMPS WILL STILL BE ON THE ORDER OF -9 TO -12C OVER NRN LAKE             
 MICHIGAN THIS MORNING AT THE TIME OF BEST FORCING. AT FIRST                    
 GLANCE...THERE WOULD APPEAR TO BE SOME CONCERN THAT THE STRONG WAA             
 WOULD CUT OFF LAKE ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL (00Z KMPX SOUNDING SHOWED             
 850MB TEMP OF ONLY -2C). HOWEVER...COOLING THRU UPWARD MOTION IN               
 INTIAL DRY AIRMASS AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD TEND TO SLOW THE             
 ACTUAL WARMING AS MODELS INDICATE. AT THE LOW-LEVELS SRLY FLOW                 
 BECOMES CONVERGENT INTO SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY AS SFC TROF DEVELOPS                
 TOWARD NRN LAKE MICHIGAN. HAVE THUS OPTED TO ISSUE A SNOW ADVY (2-4            
 INCHES) FOR SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY WHERE BEST FETCH ACROSS THE LAKE            
 TAKES AIM. CONSIDERED DELTA COUNTY...BUT WITH SHARP CONVERGENCE TO             
 SET UP JUST E OF THERE...EXPECT LIGHTER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.                    
 NONETHELESS...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE FAR ERN PART OF DELTA            
 COUNTY IN CASE SRLY FLOW BACKS MORE THAN EXPECTED BEFORE BEST                  
 FORCING DEPARTS. WILL BUFFER THE ADVY AREA WITH ROUGHLY 1-3 INCHES             
 OF SNOW FROM ERN DELTA INTO ALGER/LUCE. GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE LOOK TO           
 CLOUDS UPSTREAM...WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW           
 AS STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREAD OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING.               
 AFTER SOME MORNING -SN/FLURRIES WEST...POTENTIAL FOR FZDZ DEVELOPS             
 AS MIDLEVEL MOISTURE EXITS LEAVING MOIST LAYER EXTENDING TO NEAR THE           
 -10C ISOTHERM. SW HALF OF FCST AREA APPEARS MOST AT THREAT FOR                 
 SPOTTY -FZDZ WITH WARMER MOIST LAYER TEMPS...AND WILL INCLUDE                  
 MENTION THERE.                                                                 
 SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...KEEPING BEST FORCING           
 TO THE NE OF HERE. IN FACT...MODELS ACTUALLY SHOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE            
 OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA FOR A GOOD PORTION OF TONIGHT. SO...AFTER           
 SOME EVENING -SN OVER THE FAR E...THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH IF ANY PCPN            
 AGAIN UNTIL LATE. THIS BRING US TO THE UPCOMING LAKE EFFECT EVENT.             
 BROAD SFC LOW PRES OVER CNTRL UPPER MI/NW LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING           
 WILL SHIFT TO LAKE HURON/ERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z SAT. ANOTHER                 
 SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE WILL THEN SEND SFC LOW/TROF S ACROSS UPPER MI            
 SAT. THE EXACT DETAILS OF HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT IS UNCERTAIN. GFS             
 INDICATES SHARP SFC TROF REACHING THE KEWEENAW AROUND 12Z...THEN               
 CLEARING NRN UPPER MI BY 18Z SAT. NAM IS ABOUT 6HRS SLOWER. RUC13              
 AND REGIONAL CANADIAN MODEL ARE NEARLY IDENTICAL IN SHOWING EVEN               
 SHARPER SFC TROFFING AND HINT AT MESOLOW OVER CNTRL LAKE                       
 SUPERIOR AT 12Z N OF STANNARD ROCK. MESOLOW THEN DROPS TO NEAR                 
 MUNISING BY 18Z. SO...TIMING IS ESSENTIALLY BTWN THE GFS AND NAM.              
 SINCE THE REGIONAL CANADIAN OFTEN DID A MUCH BETTER JOB HANDLING               
 WIND FIELDS OVER THE LAKE IN PAST EVENTS THIS SEASON WHEN THERE WERE           
 SHARP CONVERGENCE ZONES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR (SEVERAL IN EARLY                   
 DEC)...WILL FAVOR ITS SOLUTION WITH REGARD TO DETAILS OF WIND                  
 FIELDS. OF COURSE...PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE                 
 PERFORMANCE...BUT IT DOES HAVE STRONG SUPPORT FROM THE RUC13. THIS             
 SOLUTION RESULTS IN NW FLOW INTO WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT AS CAA GETS            
 UNDERWAY...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY BE AFTER 12Z BEFORE LAKE ENHANCEMENT           
 BEGINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. WILL BRING IN           
 -SHSN OVER THE W AND N OVERNIGHT AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO -14C OR SO             
 BY 12Z.                                                                        
 AS MESOLOW/SFC TROF DROP S INTO NRN UPPER MI DURING THE LATE MORNING           
 INTO AFTN...EXPECT WIND SHIFT TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF HVY               
 SNOW AS FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATING DEEP MOISTURE TO 10KFT OR MORE               
 AND NO INVERSION. SNOW COULD BE QUITE INTENSE OVER NCNTRL UPPER MI             
 IF MESOLOW DOES FORM ON SFC TROF. IN THE WAKE OF WIND SHIFT...                 
 CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR MDT/HVY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW                       
 TRANSITIONING TO PURE LES FOR N WIND FAVORED SNOWBELTS SAT AFTN THRU           
 SAT NIGHT BEFORE SHARP DRYING AND CRASHING OF INVERSION TO 4-5KFT              
 OCCURS EARLY SUN. WILL LEAVE GOING WATCHES AS IS                               
 (GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON/MARQUETTE/ALGER) GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON INITIAL               
 WIND FIELDS AND ON START TIME OF HVY SNOW...BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE              
 WATCHES WILL BE ABLE TO TRANSITION TO WARNINGS BASED ON VERY                   
 FAVORABLE LOOK OF FCST SOUNDINGS. ONE CHANGE WILL BE TO ADD BARAGA             
 COUNTY TO WATCH AS N WIND DURING LAKE ENHANCEMENT PERIOD WILL FAVOR            
 THAT AREA FOR HVY SNOW AS WELL. HOUGHTON/KEWEENAW/LUCE WILL LIKELY             
 NEED ADVYS FOR THIS EVENT. ADVY TYPE SNOW MAY ALSO SPREAD AS FAR S             
 AS DELTA COUNTY SAT NIGHT UNDER NRLY FLOW.                                     
 &&                                                                             
 .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 SNOW ADVY TODAY MIZ014.                                                        
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH LATE TONIGHT THRU SUN MORNING MIZ002-009.               
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH SAT MORNING THRU SUN MORNING MIZ004.                    
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH SAT MORNING THRU SUN AFTN MIZ005-006.                   
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 VOSS (UPDATE)                                                                  
 ROLFSON (PREV DISCUSSION)                                                      
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                            
 1123 AM EST FRI JAN 26 2007                                                    
 .UPDATE...IMPRESSIVE NORTH/SOUTH 850MB-650MB THERMAL GRADIENT                  
 ESTABLISHED RIGHT OVER THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.            
 WEST WINDS OF 40 TO 60 KNOTS THROUGH THIS LAYER (PER BLUE RIVER                
 WISCONSIN PROFILER AND 12Z GREEN BAY SOUNDING) PERPENDICULARLY                 
 BISECTING TEMPERATURE GRADIENT...LEADING TO IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC              
 UPGLIDE AND FRONTOGENETICAL RESPONSE. AS A RESULT...LARGE AREA OF              
 SNOW RAPIDLY BROKE OUT THIS MORNING...WITH GENERAL ACCUMULATION OF 1           
 TO 2 INCHES SO FAR. LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS THIS             
 AREA RAPIDLY ADVANCING EAST. MID LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY SCOURING OUT           
 BEHIND THIS SNOWFALL WHILE LOW LEVELS (BELOW -10C) REMAIN SATURATED.           
 FREEZING DRIZZLE ALREADY BREAKING OUT OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND              
 SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN WITH A RECENT REPORT FROM THE GRAND               
 RAPIDS OFFICE OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OCCURING AT BIG                        
 RAPIDS...WITH A LIGHT COATING ALREADY OBSERVED ON CARS. FORECAST               
 CONCERNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY CENTER ON TIMING EXIT OF                 
 STEADY SNOW WITH PRIMARY FOCUS ON EXPANDING AREA OF LIGHT FREEZING             
 DRIZZLE AND ASSOCIATED WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES.                               
 RADAR EXTRAPOLATION INDICATES CATEGORICAL SNOW SHOULD EXIT OFF TO              
 THE EAST BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF                 
 ACCUMULATION OVER EASTERN AREAS. LATEST 12Z NAM-WRF GUIDANCE                   
 CONTINUES PREVIOUS IDEA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE RAPIDLY SCOURING                 
 OUT...LEAVING A SATURATED SOUNDING BELOW -10C. THUS...THE THREAT OF            
 FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME WIND SHEAR NOTED           
 IN THIS LAYER ALONG WITH SOME WEAK LIFT. BIGGEST CHANGE FROM                   
 OVERNIGHT THINKING WAS TO EXPAND THIS AREA NORTH THROUGH THE ENTIRE            
 CWA. STILL THINKING BIGGEST IMPACT AND MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL           
 REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN SECTION OF THE AREA. WILL                
 THEREFORE CONTINUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 5 PM FOR THIS               
 AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR ANY             
 NEED FOR EXPANSION OF ADVISORY NORTHWARD.                                      
 MARINE...SEVERAL REPORTS OF WIND GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS OVER                  
 SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. EXPECT THIS AREA TO EXPAND NORTHWARD AS PRESSURE           
 GRADIENT STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF ALBERTA CLIPPER DROPPING INTO WESTERN            
 UPPER MICHIGAN. WILL ISSUE SCA FOR SOUTHERN TWO NEARSHORE ZONES OF             
 LAKE MICHIGAN AND FOR ALL BUT SOUTHERN NEARSHORE ZONE ON LAKE HURON.           
 MSB                                                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 446 AM EST FRI JAN 26 2007                        
 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/UPPER AIR PLOTS REVEALING DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH            
 AND DEPARTING CORE OF COLD AIR CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...AND            
 LONG WAVE RIDGE SITTING OVER WESTERN NOAM. SHORT WAVE NOTED DROPPING           
 SE THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE               
 EAST...AND THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR US OVER THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS.               
 AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO             
 THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING...WHILE LOW PRESSURE (ASSOCIATED              
 WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE) ANALYZED NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG. WARM                
 FRONT EXTENDS SSE FROM THE LOW INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WHILE A COLD             
 FRONT TRAILS BACK ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. REGIONAL RADAR PLOT                  
 SHOWING SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ALONG THE TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT              
 ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT...TRYING TO           
 WORK INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING...BUT LITTLE MORE THAN FLURRIES              
 REPORTED IN OBS AT THIS POINT. FINALLY...KAPX RADAR SHOWING SOME               
 RESIDUAL LIGHT LAKE EFFECT FLURRY ACTIVITY OVER NW LOWER MICHIGAN ON           
 THE BACKING WEST FLOW.                                                         
 IMMEDIATE FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TODAY            
 WITH A QUICK SHOT OF STRONG F-GENT/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ROLLING THROUGH           
 THE REGION AHEAD OF THE WAVE...BOLSTERED BY ANY LAKE CONTRIBUTION.             
 TODAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOW IN CONTROL FORECAST TO QUICKLY RETREAT           
 SOUTHWARD EARLY THIS MORNING AS UPSTREAM SFC LOW/ASSOCIATED MID                
 LEVEL WAVE DROP INTO THE REGION. THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN           
 GREAT LAKES FORECAST TO RAPIDLY TIGHTEN THIS MORNING WITH A NICE               
 SHOT OF LOW-MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT/NET ADIABATIC OMEGA SLIDING            
 W-E THROUGH THE REGION...FOCUSED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF LOWER              
 MICHIGAN. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS TAKEN PERPENDICULAR TO THE THERMAL              
 GRADIENT SHOWING A FOCUSED REGION OF W-E SLOPED 2-D FGEN DEVELOPING            
 OVER NRN MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING. BEST RESPONSE/MODEL OMEGA                
 AGAIN INDICATED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF LOWER MICHIGAN WITH THE             
 MODEL OMEGA MAX INTERSECTING THE IDEAL -12C TO -18C THERMAL REGIME             
 OVER THE W/WSW QUARTER OF THE CWA (PERHAPS AROUND HTL TO CAD IF THE            
 MODEL IS DEAD ON). FORTUNATELY...IT DOES NOT LAST LONG...ON THE                
 ORDER OF 3 HOURS OR SO. BUT WITHIN THAT TIMEFRAME POTENTIAL IS THERE           
 FOR A NICE AREA OF BANDED MOD-HEAVY SNOWFALL TO DEVELOP OVER THE               
 AREA MENTIONED AND TO GET A QUICK 1-3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION.                  
 MEANWHILE FLOW BACKING INTO THE SW MAY ALSO GET A FEW HOURS OF LAKE            
 ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN FROM MANISTEE UP TO LEELANAU COUNTY              
 BEFORE THE FLOW CONTINUES ON AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY LATE MORNING.              
 ALL TOLD...WILL UP POPS TO CATEGORICAL THIS MORNING FOR THE ENTIRE             
 CWA BUT FOCUS BEST ACCUMULATIONS FROM HTL/GOV OVER TO MBL/FRANKFORT            
 AND LEELANAU COUNTY. THEN...BY LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON             
 FGEN/WARM ADVECTION FORCING DIMINISHES WHILE LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE            
 STRIPS OUT W-E. EARLIER CONCERNS OVER FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE                  
 AFTERNOON CERTAINLY LOOK JUSTIFIED ACROSS THE S/SW PORTION OF THE              
 CWA AS REMAINING SATURATED LOW LEVELS ENTIRELY WARMER THAN -6C TO              
 -8C WITH MOISTURE POKING UP ABOVE THE INVERSION (A TELLTALE DRIZZLE            
 SOUNDING). THERMAL PROFILES REMAIN JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR -FZDZ/-SN              
 THE FURTHER NORTH YOU GO AND JUST SNOW IN EASTERN UPPER. SO...WITH             
 MORNING SNOWFALL OF 1-3 INCHES (POSSIBLY BETTER) COMBINED WITH                 
 AFTERNOON FREEZING DRIZZLE...PROBABLY ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WINTER               
 WEATHER ADVISORY TODAY ACROSS THE S/SW PART OF THE CWA.                        
 TONIGHT...SFC LOW EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF             
 THE STATE...WITH WINDS TURNING NW AND COLDER AIR ONCE AGAIN OOZING             
 INTO THE REGION. STILL FAIRLY DRY ALOFT AND SHALLOW SATURATED LOWER            
 LAYERS WARMER THAN -10C REMAIN A CONCERN OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE              
 CWA DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE                      
 POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH SHRINKING INVERSION HEIGHTS AND MOISTURE DEPTH             
 MAY DIMINISH THE THREAT. WILL NOT CARRY THE ADVISORY INTO THE                  
 EVENING HOURS WITH THAT THOUGHT IN MIND BUT DAY SHIFT WILL WANT TO             
 CONSIDER EXTENDING ADVISORIES IF NEED BE. WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW                 
 CHANCES GOING ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WHERE COLDEST THERMAL              
 PROFILE RESIDES. MAY ACTUALLY SEE SOME DECENT SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE            
 HURON UP THROUGH THE SAINT MARYS SYSTEM THIS EVENING WITH SE LOW               
 LEVEL FLOW. EVENING SHIFT WILL WANT TO WATCH FOR THAT. THEN...WITH             
 WINDS TURNING NW...COLDER AIR FILTERING DOWN INTO THE REGION                   
 OVERNIGHT...FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD FINALLY COME TO AN END FOR MOST            
 AREAS WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BECOMING MORE PROMINENT OFF                
 LAKES MICHIGAN AND SUPERIOR.                                                   
 SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO                 
 SLOWLY PULL AWAY EAST OF THE STATE WHILE SHARP LOW LEVEL TROUGHING             
 LINGERS BACK ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA. MODELS INSIST ON DRAGGING             
 THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT DOWN THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY NIGHT               
 WITH SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR THEN ARRIVING FOR THE LATTER HALF OF             
 THE WEEKEND. WILL SEE HOW THAT PLAYS OUT AS THE MODELS OFTEN ARE TOO           
 FAST WITH THIS SCENARIO (I.E. SFC TROUGH HOLDS ACROSS THE NORTH                
 MUCH LONGER THAN FORECAST). AT ANY RATE...WILL KEEP SCT-NUMEROUS               
 SNOW SHOWERS GOING FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER THE NW FLOW             
 AREAS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. BEST ACCUMULATIONS ON SATURDAY MAY BE               
 FOUND ACROSS THE U.P. AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WITH THE SHARP                
 TROUGH/STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THIS AREA. THEN FOR                 
 SATURDAY NIGHT...IF TROUGH MANAGES TO DROP SOUTH FOLLOWED BY MUCH              
 COLDER AIR AND WINDS TURNING INTO THE NORTH...POSSIBILITIES FOR                
 ANOTHER GOOD LAKE EFFECT EVENT AROUND THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY REGION            
 OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.                                                         
 SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES MADE TO THE                    
 FORECAST. OVERALL...COLD WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE               
 INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE TIMING ADDITIONAL           
 WAVES THROUGH THE REGION AND PINPOINTING SYNOPTIC/LAKE EFFECT                  
 THROUGH TUESDAY. PERHAPS A BRIEF BREAK ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE              
 SCOOTS THROUGH THE REGION...ALREADY REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST WITH             
 JUST LOW CHANCY POPS. ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM CURRENTLY SLATED             
 FOR TUESDAY.                                                                   
 ADAM                                                                           
 &&                                                                             
 .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...                  
      TODAY...MIZ020-025>028-031>035-041-042.                                   
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                    
 1036 AM EST FRI JAN 26 2007                                                    
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 SNOW HAS INCREASED IN INTENSITY THIS MORNING WITH VISIBILITIES                 
 DOWN TO LESS THAN 1 MILE. NICE FGEN FORCING PER THE 12Z RUC ON THE             
 750MB SURFACE WHICH SLIDES NORTHEAST OF THE CWA BETWEEN 17Z-18Z.               
 FURTHERMORE...ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM THE ENTRANCE REGION OF 130KT                
 JET CENTERED OVER BUFFALO NY IS AIDING IN ADDITIONAL LIFT.                     
 IMPRESSIVE WARM ADVECTION AND MID LEVEL DRY SLOT IS STILL EXPECTED             
 TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON SOUNDINGS FROM              
 THE RUC AND THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEW NAM...FREEZING DRIZZLE LOOKS                
 GOOD AS WE LOSE MOISTURE AT THE DENDRITIC ICE GROWTH REGION.                   
 TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE 20S AND MIGHT                  
 CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT...                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 600 AM EST FRI JAN 26 2007                           
 AVIATION...                                                                    
 CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY DETERIORATE DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE             
 FORECAST AS AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE/STRONG              
 WARM AIR ADVECTION EVENTUALLY OVERCOMES DRY LOW LEVELS AND REACHES             
 THE GROUND EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BRING LOWERING VISIBILITIES           
 AND CEILINGS IN THE MVFR RANGE BY AND LARGE. AFTER THE INITIAL SURGE           
 OF MOISTURE AND SNOW...DRY AIR WORKS INTO THE MID LEVELS AND LEADS             
 TO A TRANSITION OF LIGHT SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE AND THEN ALL FREEZING           
 DRIZZLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WOULD EXPECT CEILINGS TO CONTINUE TO             
 LOWER AND WOULD NOT BE AT ALL SURPRISED IF THE IFR CONDITIONS OVER             
 WISCONSIN MADE IT THIS FAR EAST LATE TODAY. THIS WHOLE SCENARIO IS             
 BEING DRIVEN BY LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT               
 LAKES. AS THIS LOW MOVES INTO LAKE HURON LATE TONIGHT...COLD AIR               
 WILL SURGE BACK SOUTH INTO THE AREA...BRINGING ANY LEFTOVER DRIZZLE            
 OR FREEZING DRIZZLE BACK TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AFTER BY 06Z OR SO.             
 PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 341 AM                                             
 SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT                                                 
 TRICKY FORECAST TODAY AS A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW SPREADS INTO THE AREA            
 THIS MORNING IN WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. THIS SNOW WILL AMOUNT TO            
 AN INCH OR TWO...WITH THE BEST ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL ALONG AND TO             
 THE NORTHEAST OF I-75 OR SO. THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUTOFF IN LIGHT             
 SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE SOUTHWEST AS DRY AIR WORKS QUICKLY INTO THE           
 AREA WITHIN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME.                                  
 THIS INTRUSION OF DRY AIR WILL FIRST STRIP AWAY MID AND UPPER LEVEL            
 MOISTURE...LEADING TO PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER FROM LIGHT SNOW TO           
 FREEZING DRIZZLE AS SEMI-SATURATED PORTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES           
 LIMITED TO AREAS BELOW 800 MB...AND BELOW -10C...THUS LIMITING THE             
 POTENTIAL FOR ICE NUCLEATION AND SNOWFLAKE PRODUCTION.                         
 WITHIN THIS PROCESS...THE DRY SLOT MAY EVEN ELIMINATE ENOUGH OF THE            
 LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO END OR AT LEAST LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF DRIZZLE              
 OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA...ESPECIALLY BY AFTERNOON.                               
 WITH THIS MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION...AND AFTER COORDINATION WITH               
 SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL BE GOING WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY             
 TODAY FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHERNMOST TWO COUNTIES IN THE CWA. THE                
 SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS ADVISORY WILL HAVE THE LIGHTEST PRECIPITATION            
 BUT MOST FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL -VS- LIGHT SNOW...AND THE                  
 NORTHEAST THUMB REGION WILL HAVE BETTER SNOW ACCUMULATION...BUT                
 LIMITED FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ALL IN ALL...THE              
 PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT...BUT WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE             
 SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS AT THE START OF THE EVENT...THE DRIZZLE BY              
 LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WILL HAVE LITTLE PROBLEM FREEZING TO              
 SURFACES.                                                                      
 WILL LIMIT THE ADVISORY TO THE FIRST PERIOD AND ALLOW THE DAYSHIFT             
 TO EVALUATE JUST HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS                
 EVENING. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE MOST WIDESPREAD FREEZING                
 DRIZZLE AND/OR LIGHT SNOW BY THIS EVENING WILL BE LIMITED TO AREAS             
 ALONG/NORTH OF I-69 OR PERHAPS THE M-59 CORRIDOR. THE ADVISORY MAY             
 VERY WELL NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO TONIGHT IN SOME AREAS.                      
 LONG TERM...                                                                   
 NEXT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR TO IMPACT SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS                     
 WEEKEND...LIKELY LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING                      
 SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE THUMB REGION.                                     
 TOO FAR OUT TO PIN DOWN THE DETAILS OF ANY LAKE HURON BANDS...AS               
 TIMING AND STRENGTH OF UPPER WAVES AS SEEN ON DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE               
 VARY BETWEEN 00Z UKMET/NAM AND GFS. HOWEVER...WITH ALL MODELS                  
 SHOWING A WELL DEFINED SURFACE TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHERN                
 LOWER MICHIGAN AND 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO AT LEAST -18 C...SNOW               
 SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE A GOOD BET AND HAVE RAISED POPS TO 50 PERCENT             
 SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...WITH             
 LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE THUMB REGION BY SUNDAY. POPS FOR ONE OR BOTH            
 OF THOSE PERIODS WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO BE BUMPED UP AS TIMING OF THE           
 UPPER WAVES BECOME CLEARER.                                                    
 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER                  
 CENTRAL CANADA (ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA) WITH MULTIPLE VORTS             
 ROTATING ABOUT. 00Z UKMET/CANADIAN GLOBAL SHOW ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH            
 MOVING THROUGH BY 00Z SUNDAY...WHILE NAM/GFS ARE GOOD 6+ HOURS                 
 SLOWER. THOSE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH AMPLIFYING UPPER             
 WAVE DIVING SOUTH FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES...LEADING TO                  
 POTENTIAL CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB MOVING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN ON                
 SUNDAY.                                                                        
 AS FAR AS TEMPS GO FOR THE WEEKEND...GFS MOS MAXES ON SATURDAY LOOK            
 A LITTLE TOO WARM WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION DURING THE                
 DAY AND 925 MB TEMPS FORECASTED TO DROP BELOW -3 C BY 12Z SATURDAY             
 (BLENDING GFS/NAM). WITH CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY                      
 NIGHT...WOULD EXPECT MINS TO HOLD IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20. GFS MOS           
 GUIDANCE TEMP LOOK GOOD FOR SUNDAY...UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S...A              
 COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY`S AIRMASS. YESTERDAY`S DTX                
 SOUNDING CAME IN WITH -20 C AT 850MB...WHILE A BLEND OF THE                    
 UKMET/GFS/NAM PUTS THE 850 MB TEMP AT -18 C BY 00Z MONDAY.                     
 BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AND LINGERING MOISTURE UP TO 700 MB STILL                  
 SUPPORTS A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SHORTWAVE            
 RIDGING MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. WITH THE              
 LINGERING CLOUDS AND GRADIENT SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LEAVE THE MINS IN            
 THE SINGLE DIGITS.                                                             
 00Z EUROPEAN/GFS/CANADIAN GLOBAL ALL SHOWING AN UPPER WAVE/TROUGH              
 SWINGING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...WORTHY OF A CHANCE OF LIGHT            
 SNOW AS A SURFACE REFLECTION IS ALSO FORECASTED TO MOVE THROUGH.               
 &&                                                                             
 .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...MIZ047-MIZ048-MIZ049-MIZ053-MIZ054-             
      MIZ055-MIZ060-MIZ061-MIZ062-MIZ063-MIZ068-MIZ069-MIZ070-                  
      MIZ075-MIZ076 UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY.                                          
 LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT                 
      AUSTIN TO PORT HURON...3 PM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT SATURDAY.                  
 LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                          
 MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                 
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 UPDATE.......BGM                                                               
 SHORT TERM...BGM                                                               
 LONG TERM....SF                                                                
 YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE           
 AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                   
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                          
 450 AM EST FRI JAN 26 2007                                                     
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 THERE ARE TWO BIG FCST CONCERNS EARLY THIS MORNING. FIRST IS LAKE              
 ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL IN SRLY FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. SECOND                   
 CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND UPCOMING HEADLINE LAKE EFFECT EVENT SAT/SUN.           
 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A DEEP VORTEX DESCENDING             
 OVER NEW ENGLAND. NW FLOW AROUND THE WRN SIDE OF THIS VORTEX IS                
 DOMINATING THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...             
 UPSTREAM A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE LOOKING SHORTWAVE IS HEADING SE THRU              
 SASKATCHEWAN. 00Z SOUNDING FROM CWEG IN ALBERTA SHOWED A RESPECTABLE           
 12HR 500MB HEIGHT FALL OF 140M WITH THIS SYSTEM. AHEAD OF THE                  
 SHORTWAVE...POOL OF VERY WARM AIR DUE MOSTLY TO DOWNSLOPING OFF THE            
 ROCKIES HAS PUSHED OUT OVER THE NRN PLAINS. 00Z RAOBS SHOWED 850MB             
 TEMPS ALL THE WAY UP TO 11C AT KBIS AND 14C AT KUNR. THIS WAA HAS              
 LED TO A BAND OF MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES           
 REGION...AND SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOW CONVECTIVE              
 ELEMENTS IN THE CLOUD BAND. 00Z KINL SOUNDING DID SHOW DRY-ADIABATIC           
 LAPSE RATE BTWN 650 AND 550MB. SO FAR...ONLY SPOTTY -SN/FLURRIES               
 HAVE BEEN NOTED. LACK OF PCPN IS DUE TO DRY AIRMASS PER 00Z                    
 KINL/KGRB SOUNDINGS. DRY AIR IS NOT TOO SUBSTANTIAL THOUGH AND WOULD           
 EXPECT PCPN COVERAGE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH TIME.                          
 MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TAKING SHORTWAVE OVER SASKATCHEWAN TO             
 JUST NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z SAT. ON THIS TRACK...IMPRESSIVE DEEP           
 LAYER FORCING INDICATED BY NAM/GFS 850/500MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE               
 WILL PASS JUST NE OF UPPER MI THIS EVENING. EVEN SO...NW-SE ORIENTED           
 MODEST DEEP LAYER FORCING WILL CONTINUE ALL DAY ACROSS MOST OF THE             
 FCST AREA. AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...BROAD/ELONGATED SFC                   
 LOW PRES CURRENTLY OVER MANITOBA WILL SLIDE ESE TO CNTRL UPPER MI/NW           
 LAKE SUPERIOR. GIVEN FORCING AND LOCATION OF STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL           
 CONVERGENCE ACROSS CNTRL UPPER MI ALONG SFC TROF/WARM FRONT                    
 EXTENDING SE FROM APPROACHING LOW PRES...EXPECT MORE PERSISTENT -SN            
 TO TAKE SHAPE OVER ROUGHLY THE E HALF OF FCST AREA TODAY. STRONG               
 ISENTROPIC ASCENT (290K SFC OR ROUGHLY 700-750MB) IS SET FOR THE               
 MORNING HRS THOUGH...SO HEAVIER SNOW SHOULD OCCUR THIS MORNING. THIS           
 BRINGS UP THE PROSPECT FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT OVER THE SE FCST AREA AS           
 850MB TEMPS WILL STILL BE ON THE ORDER OF -9 TO -12C OVER NRN LAKE             
 MICHIGAN THIS MORNING AT THE TIME OF BEST FORCING. AT FIRST                    
 GLANCE...THERE WOULD APPEAR TO BE SOME CONCERN THAT THE STRONG WAA             
 WOULD CUT OFF LAKE ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL (00Z KMPX SOUNDING SHOWED             
 850MB TEMP OF ONLY -2C). HOWEVER...COOLING THRU UPWARD MOTION IN               
 INTIAL DRY AIRMASS AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD TEND TO SLOW THE             
 ACTUAL WARMING AS MODELS INDICATE. AT THE LOW-LEVELS SRLY FLOW                 
 BECOMES CONVERGENT INTO SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY AS SFC TROF DEVELOPS                
 TOWARD NRN LAKE MICHIGAN. HAVE THUS OPTED TO ISSUE A SNOW ADVY (2-4            
 INCHES) FOR SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY WHERE BEST FETCH ACROSS THE LAKE            
 TAKES AIM. CONSIDERED DELTA COUNTY...BUT WITH SHARP CONVERGENCE TO             
 SET UP JUST E OF THERE...EXPECT LIGHTER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.                    
 NONETHELESS...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE FAR ERN PART OF DELTA            
 COUNTY IN CASE SRLY FLOW BACKS MORE THAN EXPECTED BEFORE BEST                  
 FORCING DEPARTS. WILL BUFFER THE ADVY AREA WITH ROUGHLY 1-3 INCHES             
 OF SNOW FROM ERN DELTA INTO ALGER/LUCE. GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE LOOK TO           
 CLOUDS UPSTREAM...WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW           
 AS STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREAD OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING.               
 AFTER SOME MORNING -SN/FLURRIES WEST...POTENTIAL FOR FZDZ DEVELOPS             
 AS MIDLEVEL MOISTURE EXITS LEAVING MOIST LAYER EXTENDING TO NEAR THE           
 -10C ISOTHERM. SW HALF OF FCST AREA APPEARS MOST AT THREAT FOR                 
 SPOTTY -FZDZ WITH WARMER MOIST LAYER TEMPS...AND WILL INCLUDE                  
 MENTION THERE.                                                                 
 SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...KEEPING BEST FORCING           
 TO THE NE OF HERE. IN FACT...MODELS ACTUALLY SHOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE            
 OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA FOR A GOOD PORTION OF TONIGHT. SO...AFTER           
 SOME EVENING -SN OVER THE FAR E...THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH IF ANY PCPN            
 AGAIN UNTIL LATE. THIS BRING US TO THE UPCOMING LAKE EFFECT EVENT.             
 BROAD SFC LOW PRES OVER CNTRL UPPER MI/NW LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING           
 WILL SHIFT TO LAKE HURON/ERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z SAT. ANOTHER                 
 SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE WILL THEN SEND SFC LOW/TROF S ACROSS UPPER MI            
 SAT. THE EXACT DETAILS OF HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT IS UNCERTAIN. GFS             
 INDICATES SHARP SFC TROF REACHING THE KEWEENAW AROUND 12Z...THEN               
 CLEARING NRN UPPER MI BY 18Z SAT. NAM IS ABOUT 6HRS SLOWER. RUC13              
 AND REGIONAL CANADIAN MODEL ARE NEARLY IDENTICAL IN SHOWING EVEN               
 SHARPER SFC TROFFING AND HINT AT MESOLOW OVER CNTRL LAKE                       
 SUPERIOR AT 12Z N OF STANNARD ROCK. MESOLOW THEN DROPS TO NEAR                 
 MUNISING BY 18Z. SO...TIMING IS ESSENTIALLY BTWN THE GFS AND NAM.              
 SINCE THE REGIONAL CANADIAN OFTEN DID A MUCH BETTER JOB HANDLING               
 WIND FIELDS OVER THE LAKE IN PAST EVENTS THIS SEASON WHEN THERE WERE           
 SHARP CONVERGENCE ZONES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR (SEVERAL IN EARLY                   
 DEC)...WILL FAVOR ITS SOLUTION WITH REGARD TO DETAILS OF WIND                  
 FIELDS. OF COURSE...PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE                 
 PERFORMANCE...BUT IT DOES HAVE STRONG SUPPORT FROM THE RUC13. THIS             
 SOLUTION RESULTS IN NW FLOW INTO WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT AS CAA GETS            
 UNDERWAY...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY BE AFTER 12Z BEFORE LAKE ENHANCEMENT           
 BEGINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. WILL BRING IN           
 -SHSN OVER THE W AND N OVERNIGHT AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO -14C OR SO             
 BY 12Z.                                                                        
 AS MESOLOW/SFC TROF DROP S INTO NRN UPPER MI DURING THE LATE MORNING           
 INTO AFTN...EXPECT WIND SHIFT TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF HVY               
 SNOW AS FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATING DEEP MOISTURE TO 10KFT OR MORE               
 AND NO INVERSION. SNOW COULD BE QUITE INTENSE OVER NCNTRL UPPER MI             
 IF MESOLOW DOES FORM ON SFC TROF. IN THE WAKE OF WIND SHIFT...                 
 CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR MDT/HVY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW                       
 TRANSITIONING TO PURE LES FOR N WIND FAVORED SNOWBELTS SAT AFTN THRU           
 SAT NIGHT BEFORE SHARP DRYING AND CRASHING OF INVERSION TO 4-5KFT              
 OCCURS EARLY SUN. WILL LEAVE GOING WATCHES AS IS                               
 (GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON/MARQUETTE/ALGER) GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON INITIAL               
 WIND FIELDS AND ON START TIME OF HVY SNOW...BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE              
 WATCHES WILL BE ABLE TO TRANSITION TO WARNINGS BASED ON VERY                   
 FAVORABLE LOOK OF FCST SOUNDINGS. ONE CHANGE WILL BE TO ADD BARAGA             
 COUNTY TO WATCH AS N WIND DURING LAKE ENHANCEMENT PERIOD WILL FAVOR            
 THAT AREA FOR HVY SNOW AS WELL. HOUGHTON/KEWEENAW/LUCE WILL LIKELY             
 NEED ADVYS FOR THIS EVENT. ADVY TYPE SNOW MAY ALSO SPREAD AS FAR S             
 AS DELTA COUNTY SAT NIGHT UNDER NRLY FLOW.                                     
 &&                                                                             
 .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 SNOW ADVY TODAY MIZ014.                                                        
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH LATE TONIGHT THRU SUN MORNING MIZ002-009.               
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH SAT MORNING THRU SUN MORNING MIZ004.                    
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH SAT MORNING THRU SUN AFTN MIZ005-006.                   
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 ROLFSON                                                                        
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                             
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                          
 1015 PM EST THU JAN 25 2007                                                    
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 KMQT RADAR INDICATED INITIAL BAND OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS ALONG WITH A              
 FEW FLURRIES MOVING THROUGH W UPR MI. UPSTREAM...ADDITIONAL RETURNS            
 WERE DEVELOPING OVER NW MN. THE 00Z NAM AND 18Z GFS WERE IN GOOD               
 AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING A TIGHT BAND OF MODERATE TO STRONG 280K-290K            
 ASCENT FROM W INTO CNTRL UPR MI BY 12Z. THE NAM HAS TRENDED TOWARD             
 THE GFS WITH GREATER LOW LVL SATURATION WITHOUT AS MUCH LAG BEHIND             
 THE MID LVL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE VERY DRY ANTECEDENT                  
 AIRMASS...PER 00 KSAW TAMDAR SNDGS...WILL KEEP ONLY CHANCE POPS                
 THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. OVER THE WEST...ENOUGH MOISTURE FCST NEAR THE           
 -10C ISOTHERM...PER NAM SNDGS...FOR MAINLY SNOW CHANCES RATHER THAN            
 FREEZING DRIZZLE.                                                              
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 313 PM EST THU JAN 25 2007                           
 SHORT TERMTONIGHT)...                                                          
 12Z RAOBS/WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW HI AMPLITUDE TROF IN ERN            
 NAMERICA DOWNSTREAM OF RDG OVER THE ROCKIES. LES OVER THE FA                   
 DOWNWIND OF LK SUP IN COLD NW FLOW BTWN ARCTIC HI PRES OVER ONTARIO            
 AND LO PRES IN THE LOWER GREAT LKS IS ON THE DIMINISHING TREND AS              
 VERY DRY/STABLE AIR SHOWN ON UPSTREAM 12Z RAOBS/TAMDAR SDNG FM CYQT            
 (INVRN BASE H925-95 AND PWAT AS LO AS 0.05 INCH) MOVES OVER THE UPR            
 LKS UNDER BLDG H5 HGTS/ INCRSG LARGER SCALE ACYC FLOW DESPITE SOME             
 LINGERING CNVGC ALG LK INDUCED TROFFING EXTENDING FM LO TO THE SE NW           
 ACRS LK HURON INTO ALGER COUNTY/CNTRL LK SUP. UPSTREAM...A SHRTWV              
 MOVING INTO NRN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN IS TOPPING THE ROCKIES RDG.               
 QUITE A BIT OF MID CLD AND EVEN SOME PTCHY -SN NOTED FM SCNTRL CAN             
 INTO NE ND/NW MN IN THE SW FLOW/WAD PATTERN BTWN LO PRES ASSOCIATED            
 WITH THIS SHRTWV AND THE HI PRES SYS OVER ONTARIO AND THE UPR MS               
 RIVER VALLEY. PWAT 0.44 INCH AT YQD...SO THERE IS MORE MSTR AVBL TO            
 THIS SHRTWV.                                                                   
 MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE LINGERING LES TRENDS AND              
 -SN CHCS ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV NOW TOPPING ROCKIES RDG.                       
 FOR TNGT...GUIDANCE SHOWS RISING HGTS OVER THE UPR GRT LKS IN                  
 ADVANCE OF SHRTWV NOW OVER NRN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN...WHICH IS FCST            
 TO REACH NR LK WINNIPEG BY 12Z FRI. AS HGTS RISE AND SFC RDG AXIS/             
 LOWER INVRN BASE/DEEPER DRY AIR PASSES ACRS THE CWA THIS EVNG UNDER            
 THE RISING HGTS...EXPECT LES TO DIMINISH AND THEN END WITH LTL                 
 ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. WL LET ANY GOING HEADLINES EXPIRE AS                  
 SCHEDULED. ALTHOUGH SKIES WL BE PCLDY FOR A TIME WITH ARRIVAL OF RDG           
 AXIS (EXCEPT OVER THE KEWEENAW WITH BKN-OVC SC LINGERING IN W-SW               
 FLOW EVEN ON BACK SIDE OF RDG)...NAM/GFS SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE           
 280-290K SFCS OVERSPREADING THE FA QUICKLY AS SW RETURN FLOW DVLPS             
 IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SFC RDG. GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE AT PUSHING            
 HIER MID LVL MSTR TO THE E...AND USED ITS 280K SFC RH AOA 70 PCT TO            
 TIME ARRIVAL OF MID CLD AS THIS PROG APPEARS TO CORRELATE WELL WITH            
 OBSVD HI SC/LO AC CLD UPSTREAM. NAM FCSTS LLVLS BLO THE MID CLD DECK           
 REMAINING SO DRY THAT MODEL QPF IS ZERO...BUT GFS GENERATES SOME LGT           
 PCPN UNDER THE STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT AFT ABOUT 03Z OR SO OVER THE           
 W AND ACRS THE ENTIRE CWA AFT 06Z WITH ARRIVAL OF UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF           
 H3 JET MAX FCST TO MOVE OVER SE ONTARIO BY 12Z FRI. GFS FCST SDNGS             
 ARE QUITE A BIT MORE MOIST THRU MOST OF THE TROP IN LINE WITH OBSVD            
 12Z YQD SDNG...BUT MODEL FCST SDNGS DO SHOW LINGERING DRY LYR BTWN             
 H75-55...WHICH WOULD ALSO BE THE PRIME DENDRITIC SN GROWTH LYR.                
 CONSIDERING THIS DRY LYR AS WELL AS ANTECEDENT DRY AIR...LIMITED               
 COVG OF OBSVD SN UPSTREAM...AND NAM FCST...HAVE OPTED TO RETAIN POPS           
 BUT CUT VALUES FM HI CHC TO LWR CHC IN LINE WITH GFS MOS GUIDANCE.             
 AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT MIN TEMPS RELATIVELY EARLY BEFORE THICKER MID            
 CLD/A BIT STRONGER SW FLOW DVLPS W-E AFT EARLY THIS EVNG.                      
 KC                                                                             
 .LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                        
 THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST REMAINS             
 THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE           
 WEEKEND.                                                                       
 ONCE AGAIN FOR THIS PERIOD...AM GENERALLY DISCOUNTING THE NAM...AS             
 IT IS OUT OF BOUNDS WHEN COMPARED TO THE GLOBAL MODELS.  AS A                  
 RESULT...HAVE LEANED THIS FORECAST CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION.                 
 GFS OFF OF BUFKIT IS PUTTING OUT OVER HALF AN INCH OF QFP OVER IWD             
 DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRACK OF THE                  
 SURFACE LOW...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN NORTHWEST                   
 TERRITORIES SLIDING INTO NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.  THIS LOW WILL SLIDE           
 SOUTHEASTWARD...AND OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY FRIDAY           
 AFTERNOON AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD OVER LAKE HURON BY 12Z SATURDAY.              
 THIS WILL FIRST ALLOW FOR A LONG SOUTHERLY FETCH ACROSS LAKE                   
 MICHIGAN LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON (GENERALLY 2 TO           
 4 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS THIS AREA FRIDAY)...AND THEN SWING            
 THE WINDS OUT OF A GENERALLY NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION FRIDAY           
 NIGHT (AND KEEP THEM BETWEEN 300 AND 030 THROUGH TUESDAY).  850MB              
 TEMPERATURES...AFTER WARMING TO -7C OR SO FRIDAY WILL COOL DOWN TO             
 -12C ACROSS THE AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A BETTER CHANCE            
 OF LAKE EFFECT OR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW.  850MB TEMPERATURES WILL THEN            
 SLOWLY COOL TO -20 TO -22C BY 06Z SUNDAY.  GIVEN THIS...HAVE HOISTED           
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCHES FOR GOGEBIC...ONTONAGON...MARQUETTE...AND             
 ALGER COUNTIES FOR SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MID DAY SUNDAY.                    
 FOR FRIDAY NIGHT HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS           
 OUR CLIMATOLOGICALLY COOLER SOUTH CENTRAL CWA...WITH THE IDEA THAT             
 THE DRY SLOT MAY COME IN EARLY AND ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP.  FIRST COLD            
 FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE CWA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH 06Z           
 SATURDAY.  COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO SLIDE IN.              
 EXPECT THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES                    
 SUNDAY...AS THE COLDEST AIR SINKS OVERHEAD.  WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY               
 SUNDAY...ADDING TO THE CONVERGENCE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE               
 LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE FROM MUNISING EAST.  AS HAS BEEN THE TREND             
 OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF SHIFTS...HAVE INCREASED POPS HERE TO                   
 DEFINITE.  AS FOR RIGHT NOW...DO NOT HAVE ANY WATCHES/WARNINGS OR              
 ADVISORIES POSTED FOR THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA (EXCEPT ALGER            
 COUNTY)...BUT AS THE TIME NEARS HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.               
 MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY (DAYS 4-7)...WITH THE RELATIVE CONSISTENCY             
 IN THE EXTENDED RANGE...WITH LESS MODEL FLIP FLOPPING THAN                     
 USUAL...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE...PARTICULARLY TO TEMPERATURES.                  
 STILL...DID COOL DOWN TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 4 DEGREES ACROSS THE                
 BOARD MONDAY AFTERNOON.  SO THE OVERALL PATTERN INCLUDES A SERIES OF           
 SHORTWAVES IN THE POLAR/ARCTIC JET CONTINUALLY RE-ENFORCING OUR                
 ALREADY COLD AIRMASS.                                                          
 MONDAY 12Z...LOOKING AT THE MID LEVELS...THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO            
 BECOME A LITTLE MORE NOTICEABLE IN THERE DIFFERENCES.  THE 500MB               
 DEPICTED BY THE GFS...ALTHOUGH SIMILAR IN STRENGTH IS ABLE TO SLIDE            
 FURTHER SOUTHWARD...MAKING IT INTO EASTERN LAKE HURON BY THIS                  
 TIME...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS IT REMAINING OVER EASTERN HUDSON BAY.  AS           
 PREVIOUSLY STATED...GENERALLY DISREGARDED THIS DISCREPANCY...AND               
 SIDED CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION.  UPDATED AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER           
 FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...AS SHORTWAVE SLIDES IN FROM THE                 
 NORTHWEST...ACCORDING TO THE 06Z GFS.  ALTHOUGH IT SEEMS THAT THE              
 SHORTWAVE HAS DROPPED FURTHER SOUTH FOR THE 12Z GFS RUN...STILL                
 BELIEVE THAT WE WILL HAVE MORE THAN 40 PERCENT CLOUD COVER FOR THIS            
 PERIOD...SO HAVE KEPT THE ADJUSTED MORE PESSIMISTIC CLOUD FOR MONDAY           
 INTO MONDAY NIGHT.                                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY                    
 AFTERNOON FOR MIZ005-006.                                                      
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY                   
 MORNING FOR MIZ002-009.                                                        
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 .UPDATE...JLB                                                                  
 .SHORT TERM...KC                                                               
 .LONG TERM...KF                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                            
 1006 PM EST THU JAN 25 2007                                                    
 .UPDATE...LAKE STRATOCU GRADUALLY SPREADING INLAND FROM LAKE MI AS             
 1000-850MB WINDS BACK WESTERLY. A FEW FLURRIES ARE BEING CARRIED               
 INTO PARTS OF NW LOWER MI...WHERE THE FETCH IS LONGEST. STILL ENOUGH           
 OF A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO ALLOW SNOW SHOWERS TO GRAZE BY WHITEFISH           
 PT IN EASTERN UPPER MI...THOUGH EXPECT THAT TO COME TO END AS                  
 BACKING CONTINUES. THE INCOMING CLOUDS HAVE STALLED THE TEMPERATURE            
 FREE-FALL IN EASTERN UPPER...AND NW AND N CENTRAL LOWER MI. PARTS OF           
 NE LOWER MI ARE STILL TUMBLING THOUGH...WITH OSCODA BRIEFLY DOWN TO            
 -11F. BRRRR. TEMPS/SNOW TRENDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN.                           
 LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY EXPAND INTO NE LOWER MI.                  
 ELSEWHERE...MID CLOUDS ARE ARRIVING FROM THE NW OVER TOP OF THE                
 STRATOCU...SO CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLOUDY. TEMPS WILL THUS            
 BE STEADY TO SLOWLY RISING...AS IS CURRENTLY PORTRAYED IN THE                  
 GRIDDED FORECASTS. WILL MAKE A FEW TWEAKS...BUT EARLIER UPDATE                 
 APPEARS TO BE HOLDING UP FAIRLY WELL (OUTSIDE OF OSCODA).                      
 AS 1000-850MB WINDS GRADUALLY BACK WSW...RISK FOR LAKE EFFECT                  
 SNOW/FLURRIES WILL END IN NW CHIPPEWA...AND SHIFT NORTHWARD IN                 
 NORTHERN LOWER TOWARD EMMET CO...THE STRAITS...AND MACKINAC CO. LATE           
 TONIGHT...A MORE EMPHATIC BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY           
 (PER BUMPY-LOOKING CLOUDS IN NORTHERN MN) WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NW.             
 EVEN WITH SHARP WARM ADVECTION...THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY LEFT TO           
 KICK LAKE EFFECT PRECIP UP A COUPLE OF NOTCHES. EXPECT NOTHING MORE            
 THAN ONGOING FLURRIES FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT...BUT AFTER 4/5AM MORE             
 SUBSTANTIAL SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY. IN FACT...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE             
 KIND OF OMINOUS BY 12Z...WITH DELTA T/S IN THE LOW/MID TEENS AND A             
 DEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYER AT -10C FROM THE SURFACE TO 650MB/12K FEET.              
 HOWEVER...THE BEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE STILL STAYS WEST OF I-75 THRU            
 12Z...NOT IMPACTING THE LONGEST LAKE MI FETCH INTO THE STRAITS. SO             
 INSTEAD...WILL BOOST POPS TO LIKELY ONLY ALONG THE LEELANAU COUNTY             
 SHORE OF LAKE MI...WHERE A QUICK INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE VERY LATE            
 TONIGHT.                                                                       
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION ISSUED 732 PM THU JAN 25...                                   
 UPDATE...WILL LOWER MIN TEMPS AT LEAST A LITTLE IN MUCH OF THE                 
 FORECAST AREA. LAKE CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY ADVECTING EASTWARD AS LOW                
 LEVEL WINDS BACK...AND A BAND OF MID CLOUDS WERE FURTHER UPSTREAM IN           
 WESTERN UPPER MI AND WI. THE INCREASING CLOUDS WILL KEEP THINGS FROM           
 GETTING RIDICULOUS. HOWEVER...A FEW SITES ARE ALREADY BELOW FORECAST           
 MINS (OSCODA AT -4F BEING THE MOST DRASTIC EXAMPLE).                           
 ZOLTOWSKI                                                                      
 DISCUSSION...20Z SATELLITE/SURFACE/AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE              
 RIDGE AXIS OVER THE WESTERN LAKES REGION SLOWLY BUILDING EAST INTO             
 THE AREA. AT THE MID LEVELS...EASTERN CONUS LONG WAVE TROUGH                   
 BEGINNING TO GET BOOTED EAST AS POTENT SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL                  
 ALBERTA BEGINNING TO MAKE THE TURN SOUTHEAST ON DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF             
 AMPLIFIED INTERMOUNTAIN RIDGE. NORTH FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOWS...ALBEIT           
 RATHER WEAK AND DISORGANIZED...STARTING TO TRANSITION TO MORE                  
 NORTHWESTERLY AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES IN. CLASSIC VISIBLE SATELLITE             
 SHOT THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING LAKE CLOUD STREAMERS IMPINGING ON THE              
 IMMEDIATE SHORELINES OF THE LAKES WITH MOST INLAND AREAS CLOUD FREE.           
 DESPITE THE SUN...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RECOVER WITH                  
 CONTINUING COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY AND HIGH ALBEDO WITH             
 FRESH SNOW COVER. FORECAST CONCERNS INITIALLY CENTER ON LAKE SNOW              
 CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING WITH FOCUS THEN SHIFTING TO              
 RAPIDLY APPROACHING AFOREMENTIONED ALBERTA SHORTWAVE.                          
 TONIGHT...DESPITE EXTREME OVER WATER INSTABILITY THIS EVENING WITH             
 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -20C (WITH CORRESPONDING DELTA T VALUES IN           
 THE LOWER 20S CELSIUS)...OTHER FACTORS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF SIGNIFICANT           
 LES THIS EVENING WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...INVERSION HEIGHTS AT ABOUT           
 3.5KFT AND 850MB-700MB MOISTURE <40 PERCENT. AS WINDS CONTINUE TO              
 BACK AROUND NORTHWESTERLY EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO SPREAD A LITTLE               
 FARTHER INLAND THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE SCATTERED WORDING.               
 GIVEN ABOVE PARAMETERS NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A COUPLE TENTHS            
 OF AN INCH OF NEW ACCUMULATION. THEREFORE...WILL LET LAKE SNOW                 
 ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS EXPIRE AT 4 PM. AWAY FROM THE LAKE...EVENING           
 CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY DROP           
 OFF...REACHING THE MID SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. OTHERWISE...SOME              
 MODERATION FROM THE LAKES WILL KEEP LOWS THIS EVENING IN THE SINGLE            
 DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. BY LATER TONIGHT...280K-290K ISENTROPIC ASCENT            
 RAMPS UP WELL OUT AHEAD OF DEVELOPING CENTRAL PLAINS WARM FRONT.               
 MODEL DISCREPANCIES CONTINUE WITH REGARDS TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH           
 12Z GFS/UKMET/AND ECMWF STILL MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN NAM-WRF.               
 GIVEN CONSISTENTLY WITH REGARDS TO FORMER SOLUTIONS AND LATEST                 
 ANALYSIS SUPPORTING MORE MOIST SCENARIO...WILL SIDE WITH THESE                 
 SOLUTIONS. THUS...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALTHOUGH               
 RAPID WAA HELPS BOOST 850MB TEMPERATURE TO A COUPLE DEGREES EITHER             
 SIDE OF -10C...ENOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS FOR SOME SOUTHWEST FLOW              
 LAKE ENHANCEMENT LATE TONIGHT AS WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK AROUND.                
 HOWEVER...RAPIDLY BACKING WINDS BY MORNING MAY PREVENT ANY                     
 SIGNIFICANT LAKE CONTRIBUTION. GIVEN SHORT WINDOW OF EVENT DID NOT             
 INCLUDE IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL PASS CONCERNS ALONG TO                  
 EVENING CREW. AFTER QUICK FALL OFF THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES WILL            
 STABILIZE AND START TO WARM SOME LATER TONIGHT WITH ONSET OF                   
 INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW AS RIDGE AXIS                 
 PASSES OFF TO THE EAST..                                                       
 FRIDAY...SIDING WITH THE MORE MOIST SOLUTIONS...HAVE MAINTAINED                
 LIKELY LIGHT SNOW WORDING DURING THE MORNING AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE             
 IN CONJUNCTION WITH 850MB-650MB FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SWINGS                 
 THROUGH. SPEED AND LIMITED MOISTURE (MIXING RATIOS ONLY ON THE ORDER           
 OF 2 G/KG WITH PWAT VALUES OF AROUND 0.40 INCHES) SHOULD KEEP                  
 ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. GROWING CONCERN FOR               
 SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THE AFTERNOON AS MODEL POINT SOUNDINGS               
 SHOW MID LEVEL MOISTURE RAPIDLY STRIPPING AWAY ABOVE SATURATED LOW             
 LEVELS...WHICH REMAINS BELOW -10C. GIVEN SOME CONSISTENCY IN THIS              
 REGARDS DID BRING IN CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN COMBINATION WITH            
 THE LIGHT SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL              
 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAYS READINGS...REACHING HIGHS IN THE MID 20S            
 TO NEAR 30.                                                                    
 MARINE...EXTENDED SCA FOR LAKE HURON NEARSHORE WATERS BORDERING                
 NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH 04Z TO ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING WIND              
 GUSTS AND SOME CONVERGENCE WITH FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW.                        
 MSB                                                                            
 LATER PERIODS...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS/ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO BE IN VERY           
 GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPCOMING COLD PATTERN.  MAIN FORECAST                  
 CONCERNS THROUGH NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND A SERIES            
 OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS THAT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE                
 GREAT LAKES...EACH SEPARATED BY COUPLE DAYS OR SO.  MODELS INDICATE            
 A STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE FLOW ACROSS            
 THE GREAT LAKES ORIGINATING OUT OF THE ARCTIC.  IN THE SHORT                   
 TERM...HOWEVER...GFS AND THE EUROPEAN MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING                 
 DECENT CONTINUITY OVER THE LAST DAY OR SO...UNLIKE THE NAM WHICH               
 SEEMS TO BE TRYING TO CATCH UP WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MODELS.           
 THEREFORE...THIS FORECAST CONSISTS OF A BLEND BETWEEN THE                      
 GFS/ECMWF/UKMET MODELS.                                                        
 FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...GFS ENSEMBLE/GFS/UKMET/ECMWF AGREE WELL           
 WITH THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND TRACK OF ITS ASSOCIATED               
 SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE STRAITS.  THIS SURFACE LOW AND LEADING COLD             
 FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT.  MOISTURE               
 DEPTH IS A CONCERN DURING THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS                
 NORTHERN LOWER WHERE THE MOISTURE STRUGGLES TO REACH -10C.  THIS IS            
 NOT SO MUCH OF A PROBLEM ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...CLOSER TO THE                  
 SHORTWAVE.  WILL THEREFORE HAVE TO MENTION A CHANCE OF FREEZING                
 DRIZZLE ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER DURING THE EVENING BEFORE COLD                   
 ADVECTION AND DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES OVERNIGHT.  1000-850MB WINDS             
 SHIFT TO WNW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BRINGING LAKES MICHIGAN AND               
 SUPERIOR BACK INTO PLAY (ALBEIT MARGINALLY) AS 850MB TEMPERATURES              
 COOL TO AROUND BY -10C TO -12C BY 12Z AND -12C TO -16C BY 18Z.  WITH           
 THE STRONGEST FORCING AND COLDER THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE LYING ACROSS            
 EASTERN UPPER...HAVE DECIDED TO UP POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN               
 CHIPPEWA COUNTY.  SHORTWAVE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT THEN SWINGS               
 SOUTH AND CLEARS ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA BY 00Z                
 SATURDAY.  1000-850MB WINDS THEN SHIFT TO NNW BEHIND THIS SECOND               
 FRONT BRINGING IN MUCH COLDER AIR ONCE AGAIN.  HAVE THROWN UP A                
 LIKELY POP OVER PORTIONS OF NW LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE THE COMBINATION            
 OF WNW AND NNW FLOW SEEM TO CONVERGE TO PRODUCE THE BEST CHANCE OF             
 PRECIP.                                                                        
 SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY... SHORTWAVE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT               
 MOVE SOUTH AND CLEAR THE CWA DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  STRONG COLD            
 ADVECTION ENSUES BEHIND THIS FRONT AS WNW WINDS SHIFT TO THE NNW OR            
 DUE NORTH DIRECTION AND WILL USHER IN 850MB TEMPS BELOW -20C.                  
 ADDITIONALLY...A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SE AND REACH THE                   
 NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY 12Z SUN.  THIS SECOND WAVE WILL HELP                   
 MAINTAIN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND REINFORCE THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH              
 WHILE KEEPING 850-700MB RH LEVELS NEARLY SATURATED.  THIS APPEARS TO           
 BE A PRETTY GOOD SETUP FROM A LAKE EFFECT STANDPOINT WITH MODEL                
 SOUNDINGS SHOWING MAXIMUM UPWARD MOTION IN THE FAVORED DENDRITIC               
 GROWTH AREA AND HIGH INVERSION HEIGHTS (UP TO 700 MB).                         
 HOWEVER...TIMING ISSUES STILL EXIST SINCE THE NAM BRINGS THE                   
 SECONDARY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA SLOWER THAN THE GFS.  UPPER                
 LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ON SUNDAY AS THE POLAR VORTEX PASSES             
 JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WHILE COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES.              
 HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES           
 BETWEEN -20C AND -22C.                                                         
 MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT                   
 AGREEMENT WITH THE UPCOMING PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK...AND PATTERN THAT           
 LOOKS BITTERLY COLD FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA. STRONG              
 WESTERN NOAM RIDGE STRENGTHENS AS IT RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY FROM THE             
 YUKON TO EASTERN ALASKA PRODUCING 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES 360 METERS            
 ABOVE NORMAL BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.  THIS WILL HELP TO CREATE UPPER LEVEL           
 FLOW ORIGINATING DIRECTLY OUT OF THE ARCTIC AND PRODUCE 500MB HEIGHT           
 ANOMALIES IN EXCESS OF 320 METERS BELOW NORMAL BY 00Z FRI DOWNSTREAM           
 OVER THE GREAT LAKES.  GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN REMARKABLE                  
 AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AS SHOWN BY THE LOW                   
 STANDARD DEVIATIONS WITHIN THE RIDGE AXIS WITH THE HIGHEST                     
 PERTURBATIONS ON THE PERIPHERY WHERE THE STORM TRACK WILL RESIDE.              
 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE TIMING OF THESE CLIPPERS AS THEY                
 SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN SIDES OF THE RIDGE...WITH EACH BRINGING A               
 SLIGHT WARM UP AHEAD OF THEM...AND BITTERLY COLD AIR BEHIND THEM.              
 ONE OF THESE WAVES IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH NORTHERN MICHIGAN ON                
 TUESDAY...WITH THE NEXT ONE ARRIVING ON THURSDAY.  THE LATTER OF               
 THESE WAVES COULD POTENTIALLY BRING THE COLDEST AIR WE HAVE SEEN               
 THUS FAR THIS WINTER.  OUTSIDE OF THESE WAVES...LAKE EFFECT SNOW               
 POTENTIAL WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.                
 MPC                                                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE                                        
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                            
 732 PM EST THU JAN 25 2007                                                     
 .UPDATE...WILL LOWER MIN TEMPS AT LEAST A LITTLE IN MUCH OF THE                
 FORECAST AREA. LAKE CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY ADVECTING EASTWARD AS LOW                
 LEVEL WINDS BACK...AND A BAND OF MID CLOUDS WERE FURTHER UPSTREAM IN           
 WESTERN UPPER MI AND WI. THE INCREASING CLOUDS WILL KEEP THINGS FROM           
 GETTING RIDICULOUS. HOWEVER...A FEW SITES ARE ALREADY BELOW FORECAST           
 MINS (OSCODA AT -4F BEING THE MOST DRASTIC EXAMPLE).                           
 ZOLTOWSKI                                                                      
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION ISSUED 355 PM THU JAN 25...                                   
 20Z SATELLITE/SURFACE/AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER           
 THE WESTERN LAKES REGION SLOWLY BUILDING EAST INTO THE AREA. AT THE            
 MID LEVELS...EASTERN CONUS LONG WAVE TROUGH BEGINNING TO GET BOOTED            
 EAST AS POTENT SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA BEGINNING TO MAKE THE            
 TURN SOUTHEAST ON DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF AMPLIFIED INTERMOUNTAIN RIDGE.            
 NORTH FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOWS...ALBEIT RATHER WEAK AND                          
 DISORGANIZED...STARTING TO TRANSITION TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS                 
 SURFACE RIDGE MOVES IN. CLASSIC VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOT THIS                    
 AFTERNOON SHOWING LAKE CLOUD STREAMERS IMPINGING ON THE IMMEDIATE              
 SHORELINES OF THE LAKES WITH MOST INLAND AREAS CLOUD FREE. DESPITE             
 THE SUN...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RECOVER WITH CONTINUING               
 COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY AND HIGH ALBEDO WITH FRESH SNOW             
 COVER. FORECAST CONCERNS INITIALLY CENTER ON LAKE SNOW CHANCES AND             
 TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING WITH FOCUS THEN SHIFTING TO RAPIDLY                  
 APPROACHING AFOREMENTIONED ALBERTA SHORTWAVE.                                  
 TONIGHT...DESPITE EXTREME OVER WATER INSTABILITY THIS EVENING WITH             
 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -20C (WITH CORRESPONDING DELTA T VALUES IN           
 THE LOWER 20S CELSIUS)...OTHER FACTORS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF SIGNIFICANT           
 LES THIS EVENING WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...INVERSION HEIGHTS AT ABOUT           
 3.5KFT AND 850MB-700MB MOISTURE <40 PERCENT. AS WINDS CONTINUE TO              
 BACK AROUND NORTHWESTERLY EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO SPREAD A LITTLE               
 FARTHER INLAND THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE SCATTERED WORDING.               
 GIVEN ABOVE PARAMETERS NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A COUPLE TENTHS            
 OF AN INCH OF NEW ACCUMULATION. THEREFORE...WILL LET LAKE SNOW                 
 ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS EXPIRE AT 4 PM. AWAY FROM THE LAKE...EVENING           
 CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY DROP           
 OFF...REACHING THE MID SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. OTHERWISE...SOME              
 MODERATION FROM THE LAKES WILL KEEP LOWS THIS EVENING IN THE SINGLE            
 DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. BY LATER TONIGHT...280K-290K ISENTROPIC ASCENT            
 RAMPS UP WELL OUT AHEAD OF DEVELOPING CENTRAL PLAINS WARM FRONT.               
 MODEL DISCREPANCIES CONTINUE WITH REGARDS TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH           
 12Z GFS/UKMET/AND ECMWF STILL MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN NAM-WRF.               
 GIVEN CONSISTENTLY WITH REGARDS TO FORMER SOLUTIONS AND LATEST                 
 ANALYSIS SUPPORTING MORE MOIST SCENARIO...WILL SIDE WITH THESE                 
 SOLUTIONS. THUS...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALTHOUGH               
 RAPID WAA HELPS BOOST 850MB TEMPERATURE TO A COUPLE DEGREES EITHER             
 SIDE OF -10C...ENOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS FOR SOME SOUTHWEST FLOW              
 LAKE ENHANCEMENT LATE TONIGHT AS WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK AROUND.                
 HOWEVER...RAPIDLY BACKING WINDS BY MORNING MAY PREVENT ANY                     
 SIGNIFICANT LAKE CONTRIBUTION. GIVEN SHORT WINDOW OF EVENT DID NOT             
 INCLUDE IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL PASS CONCERNS ALONG TO                  
 EVENING CREW. AFTER QUICK FALL OFF THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES WILL            
 STABILIZE AND START TO WARM SOME LATER TONIGHT WITH ONSET OF                   
 INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW AS RIDGE AXIS                 
 PASSES OFF TO THE EAST..                                                       
 FRIDAY...SIDING WITH THE MORE MOIST SOLUTIONS...HAVE MAINTAINED                
 LIKELY LIGHT SNOW WORDING DURING THE MORNING AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE             
 IN CONJUNCTION WITH 850MB-650MB FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SWINGS                 
 THROUGH. SPEED AND LIMITED MOISTURE (MIXING RATIOS ONLY ON THE ORDER           
 OF 2 G/KG WITH PWAT VALUES OF AROUND 0.40 INCHES) SHOULD KEEP                  
 ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. GROWING CONCERN FOR               
 SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THE AFTERNOON AS MODEL POINT SOUNDINGS               
 SHOW MID LEVEL MOISTURE RAPIDLY STRIPPING AWAY ABOVE SATURATED LOW             
 LEVELS...WHICH REMAINS BELOW -10C. GIVEN SOME CONSISTENCY IN THIS              
 REGARDS DID BRING IN CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN COMBINATION WITH            
 THE LIGHT SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL              
 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAYS READINGS...REACHING HIGHS IN THE MID 20S            
 TO NEAR 30.                                                                    
 MARINE...EXTENDED SCA FOR LAKE HURON NEARSHORE WATERS BORDERING                
 NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH 04Z TO ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING WIND              
 GUSTS AND SOME CONVERGENCE WITH FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW.                        
 MSB                                                                            
 LATER PERIODS...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS/ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO BE IN VERY           
 GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPCOMING COLD PATTERN.  MAIN FORECAST                  
 CONCERNS THROUGH NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND A SERIES            
 OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS THAT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE                
 GREAT LAKES...EACH SEPARATED BY COUPLE DAYS OR SO.  MODELS INDICATE            
 A STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE FLOW ACROSS            
 THE GREAT LAKES ORIGINATING OUT OF THE ARCTIC.  IN THE SHORT                   
 TERM...HOWEVER...GFS AND THE EUROPEAN MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING                 
 DECENT CONTINUITY OVER THE LAST DAY OR SO...UNLIKE THE NAM WHICH               
 SEEMS TO BE TRYING TO CATCH UP WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MODELS.           
 THEREFORE...THIS FORECAST CONSISTS OF A BLEND BETWEEN THE                      
 GFS/ECMWF/UKMET MODELS.                                                        
 FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...GFS ENSEMBLE/GFS/UKMET/ECMWF AGREE WELL           
 WITH THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND TRACK OF ITS ASSOCIATED               
 SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE STRAITS.  THIS SURFACE LOW AND LEADING COLD             
 FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT.  MOISTURE               
 DEPTH IS A CONCERN DURING THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS                
 NORTHERN LOWER WHERE THE MOISTURE STRUGGLES TO REACH -10C.  THIS IS            
 NOT SO MUCH OF A PROBLEM ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...CLOSER TO THE                  
 SHORTWAVE.  WILL THEREFORE HAVE TO MENTION A CHANCE OF FREEZING                
 DRIZZLE ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER DURING THE EVENING BEFORE COLD                   
 ADVECTION AND DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES OVERNIGHT.  1000-850MB WINDS             
 SHIFT TO WNW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BRINGING LAKES MICHIGAN AND               
 SUPERIOR BACK INTO PLAY (ALBEIT MARGINALLY) AS 850MB TEMPERATURES              
 COOL TO AROUND BY -10C TO -12C BY 12Z AND -12C TO -16C BY 18Z.  WITH           
 THE STRONGEST FORCING AND COLDER THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE LYING ACROSS            
 EASTERN UPPER...HAVE DECIDED TO UP POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN               
 CHIPPEWA COUNTY.  SHORTWAVE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT THEN SWINGS               
 SOUTH AND CLEARS ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA BY 00Z                
 SATURDAY.  1000-850MB WINDS THEN SHIFT TO NNW BEHIND THIS SECOND               
 FRONT BRINGING IN MUCH COLDER AIR ONCE AGAIN.  HAVE THROWN UP A                
 LIKELY POP OVER PORTIONS OF NW LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE THE COMBINATION            
 OF WNW AND NNW FLOW SEEM TO CONVERGE TO PRODUCE THE BEST CHANCE OF             
 PRECIP.                                                                        
 SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY... SHORTWAVE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT               
 MOVE SOUTH AND CLEAR THE CWA DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  STRONG COLD            
 ADVECTION ENSUES BEHIND THIS FRONT AS WNW WINDS SHIFT TO THE NNW OR            
 DUE NORTH DIRECTION AND WILL USHER IN 850MB TEMPS BELOW -20C.                  
 ADDITIONALLY...A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SE AND REACH THE                   
 NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY 12Z SUN.  THIS SECOND WAVE WILL HELP                   
 MAINTAIN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND REINFORCE THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH              
 WHILE KEEPING 850-700MB RH LEVELS NEARLY SATURATED.  THIS APPEARS TO           
 BE A PRETTY GOOD SETUP FROM A LAKE EFFECT STANDPOINT WITH MODEL                
 SOUNDINGS SHOWING MAXIMUM UPWARD MOTION IN THE FAVORED DENDRITIC               
 GROWTH AREA AND HIGH INVERSION HEIGHTS (UP TO 700 MB).                         
 HOWEVER...TIMING ISSUES STILL EXIST SINCE THE NAM BRINGS THE                   
 SECONDARY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA SLOWER THAN THE GFS.  UPPER                
 LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ON SUNDAY AS THE POLAR VORTEX PASSES             
 JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WHILE COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES.              
 HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES           
 BETWEEN -20C AND -22C.                                                         
 MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT                   
 AGREEMENT WITH THE UPCOMING PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK...AND PATTERN THAT           
 LOOKS BITTERLY COLD FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA. STRONG              
 WESTERN NOAM RIDGE STRENGTHENS AS IT RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY FROM THE             
 YUKON TO EASTERN ALASKA PRODUCING 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES 360 METERS            
 ABOVE NORMAL BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.  THIS WILL HELP TO CREATE UPPER LEVEL           
 FLOW ORIGINATING DIRECTLY OUT OF THE ARCTIC AND PRODUCE 500MB HEIGHT           
 ANOMALIES IN EXCESS OF 320 METERS BELOW NORMAL BY 00Z FRI DOWNSTREAM           
 OVER THE GREAT LAKES.  GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN REMARKABLE                  
 AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AS SHOWN BY THE LOW                   
 STANDARD DEVIATIONS WITHIN THE RIDGE AXIS WITH THE HIGHEST                     
 PERTURBATIONS ON THE PERIPHERY WHERE THE STORM TRACK WILL RESIDE.              
 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE TIMING OF THESE CLIPPERS AS THEY                
 SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN SIDES OF THE RIDGE...WITH EACH BRINGING A               
 SLIGHT WARM UP AHEAD OF THEM...AND BITTERLY COLD AIR BEHIND THEM.              
 ONE OF THESE WAVES IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH NORTHERN MICHIGAN ON                
 TUESDAY...WITH THE NEXT ONE ARRIVING ON THURSDAY.  THE LATTER OF               
 THESE WAVES COULD POTENTIALLY BRING THE COLDEST AIR WE HAVE SEEN               
 THUS FAR THIS WINTER.  OUTSIDE OF THESE WAVES...LAKE EFFECT SNOW               
 POTENTIAL WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.                
 MPC                                                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE                                        
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                            
 355 PM EST THU JAN 25 2007                                                     
 .DISCUSSION...20Z SATELLITE/SURFACE/AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE             
 RIDGE AXIS OVER THE WESTERN LAKES REGION SLOWLY BUILDING EAST INTO             
 THE AREA. AT THE MID LEVELS...EASTERN CONUS LONG WAVE TROUGH                   
 BEGINNING TO GET BOOTED EAST AS POTENT SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL                  
 ALBERTA BEGINNING TO MAKE THE TURN SOUTHEAST ON DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF             
 AMPLIFIED INTERMOUNTAIN RIDGE. NORTH FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOWS...ALBEIT           
 RATHER WEAK AND DISORGANIZED...STARTING TO TRANSITION TO MORE                  
 NORTHWESTERLY AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES IN. CLASSIC VISIBLE SATELLITE             
 SHOT THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING LAKE CLOUD STREAMERS IMPINGING ON THE              
 IMMEDIATE SHORELINES OF THE LAKES WITH MOST INLAND AREAS CLOUD FREE.           
 DESPITE THE SUN...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RECOVER WITH                  
 CONTINUING COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY AND HIGH ALBEDO WITH             
 FRESH SNOW COVER. FORECAST CONCERNS INITIALLY CENTER ON LAKE SNOW              
 CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING WITH FOCUS THEN SHIFTING TO              
 RAPIDLY APPROACHING AFOREMENTIONED ALBERTA SHORTWAVE.                          
 TONIGHT...DESPITE EXTREME OVER WATER INSTABILITY THIS EVENING WITH             
 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -20C (WITH CORRESPONDING DELTA T VALUES IN           
 THE LOWER 20S CELSIUS)...OTHER FACTORS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF SIGNIFICANT           
 LES THIS EVENING WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...INVERSION HEIGHTS AT ABOUT           
 3.5KFT AND 850MB-700MB MOISTURE <40 PERCENT. AS WINDS CONTINUE TO              
 BACK AROUND NORTHWESTERLY EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO SPREAD A LITTLE               
 FARTHER INLAND THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE SCATTERED WORDING.               
 GIVEN ABOVE PARAMETERS NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A COUPLE TENTHS            
 OF AN INCH OF NEW ACCUMULATION. THEREFORE...WILL LET LAKE SNOW                 
 ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS EXPIRE AT 4 PM. AWAY FROM THE LAKE...EVENING           
 CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY DROP           
 OFF...REACHING THE MID SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. OTHERWISE...SOME              
 MODERATION FROM THE LAKES WILL KEEP LOWS THIS EVENING IN THE SINGLE            
 DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. BY LATER TONIGHT...280K-290K ISENTROPIC ASCENT            
 RAMPS UP WELL OUT AHEAD OF DEVELOPING CENTRAL PLAINS WARM FRONT.               
 MODEL DISCREPANCIES CONTINUE WITH REGARDS TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH           
 12Z GFS/UKMET/AND ECMWF STILL MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN NAM-WRF.               
 GIVEN CONSISTENTLY WITH REGARDS TO FORMER SOLUTIONS AND LATEST                 
 ANALYSIS SUPPORTING MORE MOIST SCENARIO...WILL SIDE WITH THESE                 
 SOLUTIONS. THUS...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALTHOUGH               
 RAPID WAA HELPS BOOST 850MB TEMPERATURE TO A COUPLE DEGREES EITHER             
 SIDE OF -10C...ENOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS FOR SOME SOUTHWEST FLOW              
 LAKE ENHANCEMENT LATE TONIGHT AS WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK AROUND.                
 HOWEVER...RAPIDLY BACKING WINDS BY MORNING MAY PREVENT ANY                     
 SIGNIFICANT LAKE CONTRIBUTION. GIVEN SHORT WINDOW OF EVENT DID NOT             
 INCLUDE IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL PASS CONCERNS ALONG TO                  
 EVENING CREW. AFTER QUICK FALL OFF THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES WILL            
 STABILIZE AND START TO WARM SOME LATER TONIGHT WITH ONSET OF                   
 INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW AS RIDGE AXIS                 
 PASSES OFF TO THE EAST..                                                       
 FRIDAY...SIDING WITH THE MORE MOIST SOLUTIONS...HAVE MAINTAINED                
 LIKELY LIGHT SNOW WORDING DURING THE MORNING AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE             
 IN CONJUNCTION WITH 850MB-650MB FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SWINGS                 
 THROUGH. SPEED AND LIMITED MOISTURE (MIXING RATIOS ONLY ON THE ORDER           
 OF 2 G/KG WITH PWAT VALUES OF AROUND 0.40 INCHES) SHOULD KEEP                  
 ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. GROWING CONCERN FOR               
 SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THE AFTERNOON AS MODEL POINT SOUNDINGS               
 SHOW MID LEVEL MOISTURE RAPIDLY STRIPPING AWAY ABOVE SATURATED LOW             
 LEVELS...WHICH REMAINS BELOW -10C. GIVEN SOME CONSISTENCY IN THIS              
 REGARDS DID BRING IN CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN COMBINATION WITH            
 THE LIGHT SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL              
 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAYS READINGS...REACHING HIGHS IN THE MID 20S            
 TO NEAR 30.                                                                    
 MARINE...EXTENDED SCA FOR LAKE HURON NEARSHORE WATERS BORDERING                
 NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH 04Z TO ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING WIND              
 GUSTS AND SOME CONVERGENCE WITH FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW.                        
 MSB                                                                            
 LATER PERIODS...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS/ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO BE IN VERY           
 GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPCOMING COLD PATTERN.  MAIN FORECAST                  
 CONCERNS THROUGH NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND A SERIES            
 OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS THAT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE                
 GREAT LAKES...EACH SEPARATED BY COUPLE DAYS OR SO.  MODELS INDICATE            
 A STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE FLOW ACROSS            
 THE GREAT LAKES ORIGINATING OUT OF THE ARCTIC.  IN THE SHORT                   
 TERM...HOWEVER...GFS AND THE EUROPEAN MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING                 
 DECENT CONTINUITY OVER THE LAST DAY OR SO...UNLIKE THE NAM WHICH               
 SEEMS TO BE TRYING TO CATCH UP WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MODELS.           
 THEREFORE...THIS FORECAST CONSISTS OF A BLEND BETWEEN THE                      
 GFS/ECMWF/UKMET MODELS.                                                        
 FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...GFS ENSEMBLE/GFS/UKMET/ECMWF AGREE WELL           
 WITH THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND TRACK OF ITS ASSOCIATED               
 SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE STRAITS.  THIS SURFACE LOW AND LEADING COLD             
 FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT.  MOISTURE               
 DEPTH IS A CONCERN DURING THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS                
 NORTHERN LOWER WHERE THE MOISTURE STRUGGLES TO REACH -10C.  THIS IS            
 NOT SO MUCH OF A PROBLEM ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...CLOSER TO THE                  
 SHORTWAVE.  WILL THEREFORE HAVE TO MENTION A CHANCE OF FREEZING                
 DRIZZLE ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER DURING THE EVENING BEFORE COLD                   
 ADVECTION AND DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES OVERNIGHT.  1000-850MB WINDS             
 SHIFT TO WNW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BRINGING LAKES MICHIGAN AND               
 SUPERIOR BACK INTO PLAY (ALBEIT MARGINALLY) AS 850MB TEMPERATURES              
 COOL TO AROUND BY -10C TO -12C BY 12Z AND -12C TO -16C BY 18Z.  WITH           
 THE STRONGEST FORCING AND COLDER THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE LYING ACROSS            
 EASTERN UPPER...HAVE DECIDED TO UP POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN               
 CHIPPEWA COUNTY.  SHORTWAVE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT THEN SWINGS               
 SOUTH AND CLEARS ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA BY 00Z                
 SATURDAY.  1000-850MB WINDS THEN SHIFT TO NNW BEHIND THIS SECOND               
 FRONT BRINGING IN MUCH COLDER AIR ONCE AGAIN.  HAVE THROWN UP A                
 LIKELY POP OVER PORTIONS OF NW LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE THE COMBINATION            
 OF WNW AND NNW FLOW SEEM TO CONVERGE TO PRODUCE THE BEST CHANCE OF             
 PRECIP.                                                                        
 SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY... SHORTWAVE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT               
 MOVE SOUTH AND CLEAR THE CWA DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  STRONG COLD            
 ADVECTION ENSUES BEHIND THIS FRONT AS WNW WINDS SHIFT TO THE NNW OR            
 DUE NORTH DIRECTION AND WILL USHER IN 850MB TEMPS BELOW -20C.                  
 ADDITIONALLY...A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SE AND REACH THE                   
 NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY 12Z SUN.  THIS SECOND WAVE WILL HELP                   
 MAINTAIN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND REINFORCE THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH              
 WHILE KEEPING 850-700MB RH LEVELS NEARLY SATURATED.  THIS APPEARS TO           
 BE A PRETTY GOOD SETUP FROM A LAKE EFFECT STANDPOINT WITH MODEL                
 SOUNDINGS SHOWING MAXIMUM UPWARD MOTION IN THE FAVORED DENDRITIC               
 GROWTH AREA AND HIGH INVERSION HEIGHTS (UP TO 700 MB).                         
 HOWEVER...TIMING ISSUES STILL EXIST SINCE THE NAM BRINGS THE                   
 SECONDARY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA SLOWER THAN THE GFS.  UPPER                
 LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ON SUNDAY AS THE POLAR VORTEX PASSES             
 JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WHILE COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES.              
 HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES           
 BETWEEN -20C AND -22C.                                                         
 MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT                   
 AGREEMENT WITH THE UPCOMING PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK...AND PATTERN THAT           
 LOOKS BITTERLY COLD FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA. STRONG              
 WESTERN NOAM RIDGE STRENGTHENS AS IT RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY FROM THE             
 YUKON TO EASTERN ALASKA PRODUCING 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES 360 METERS            
 ABOVE NORMAL BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.  THIS WILL HELP TO CREATE UPPER LEVEL           
 FLOW ORIGINATING DIRECTLY OUT OF THE ARCTIC AND PRODUCE 500MB HEIGHT           
 ANOMALIES IN EXCESS OF 320 METERS BELOW NORMAL BY 00Z FRI DOWNSTREAM           
 OVER THE GREAT LAKES.  GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN REMARKABLE                  
 AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AS SHOWN BY THE LOW                   
 STANDARD DEVIATIONS WITHIN THE RIDGE AXIS WITH THE HIGHEST                     
 PERTURBATIONS ON THE PERIPHERY WHERE THE STORM TRACK WILL RESIDE.              
 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE TIMING OF THESE CLIPPERS AS THEY                
 SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN SIDES OF THE RIDGE...WITH EACH BRINGING A               
 SLIGHT WARM UP AHEAD OF THEM...AND BITTERLY COLD AIR BEHIND THEM.              
 ONE OF THESE WAVES IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH NORTHERN MICHIGAN ON                
 TUESDAY...WITH THE NEXT ONE ARRIVING ON THURSDAY.  THE LATTER OF               
 THESE WAVES COULD POTENTIALLY BRING THE COLDEST AIR WE HAVE SEEN               
 THUS FAR THIS WINTER.  OUTSIDE OF THESE WAVES...LAKE EFFECT SNOW               
 POTENTIAL WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.                
 MPC                                                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE                                        
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                          
 313 PM EST THU JAN 25 2007                                                     
 .SHORT TERM DISCUSSION (TONIGHT)...                                            
 12Z RAOBS/WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW HI AMPLITUDE TROF IN ERN            
 NAMERICA DOWNSTREAM OF RDG OVER THE ROCKIES. LES OVER THE FA                   
 DOWNWIND OF LK SUP IN COLD NW FLOW BTWN ARCTIC HI PRES OVER ONTARIO            
 AND LO PRES IN THE LOWER GREAT LKS IS ON THE DIMINISHING TREND AS              
 VERY DRY/STABLE AIR SHOWN ON UPSTREAM 12Z RAOBS/TAMDAR SDNG FM CYQT            
 (INVRN BASE H925-95 AND PWAT AS LO AS 0.05 INCH) MOVES OVER THE UPR            
 LKS UNDER BLDG H5 HGTS/ INCRSG LARGER SCALE ACYC FLOW DESPITE SOME             
 LINGERING CNVGC ALG LK INDUCED TROFFING EXTENDING FM LO TO THE SE NW           
 ACRS LK HURON INTO ALGER COUNTY/CNTRL LK SUP. UPSTREAM...A SHRTWV              
 MOVING INTO NRN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN IS TOPPING THE ROCKIES RDG.               
 QUITE A BIT OF MID CLD AND EVEN SOME PTCHY -SN NOTED FM SCNTRL CAN             
 INTO NE ND/NW MN IN THE SW FLOW/WAD PATTERN BTWN LO PRES ASSOCIATED            
 WITH THIS SHRTWV AND THE HI PRES SYS OVER ONTARIO AND THE UPR MS               
 RIVER VALLEY. PWAT 0.44 INCH AT YQD...SO THERE IS MORE MSTR AVBL TO            
 THIS SHRTWV.                                                                   
 MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE LINGERING LES TRENDS AND              
 -SN CHCS ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV NOW TOPPING ROCKIES RDG.                       
 FOR TNGT...GUIDANCE SHOWS RISING HGTS OVER THE UPR GRT LKS IN                  
 ADVANCE OF SHRTWV NOW OVER NRN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN...WHICH IS FCST            
 TO REACH NR LK WINNIPEG BY 12Z FRI. AS HGTS RISE AND SFC RDG AXIS/             
 LOWER INVRN BASE/DEEPER DRY AIR PASSES ACRS THE CWA THIS EVNG UNDER            
 THE RISING HGTS...EXPECT LES TO DIMINISH AND THEN END WITH LTL                 
 ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. WL LET ANY GOING HEADLINES EXPIRE AS                  
 SCHEDULED. ALTHOUGH SKIES WL BE PCLDY FOR A TIME WITH ARRIVAL OF RDG           
 AXIS (EXCEPT OVER THE KEWEENAW WITH BKN-OVC SC LINGERING IN W-SW               
 FLOW EVEN ON BACK SIDE OF RDG)...NAM/GFS SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE           
 280-290K SFCS OVERSPREADING THE FA QUICKLY AS SW RETURN FLOW DVLPS             
 IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SFC RDG. GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE AT PUSHING            
 HIER MID LVL MSTR TO THE E...AND USED ITS 280K SFC RH AOA 70 PCT TO            
 TIME ARRIVAL OF MID CLD AS THIS PROG APPEARS TO CORRELATE WELL WITH            
 OBSVD HI SC/LO AC CLD UPSTREAM. NAM FCSTS LLVLS BLO THE MID CLD DECK           
 REMAINING SO DRY THAT MODEL QPF IS ZERO...BUT GFS GENERATES SOME LGT           
 PCPN UNDER THE STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT AFT ABOUT 03Z OR SO OVER THE           
 W AND ACRS THE ENTIRE CWA AFT 06Z WITH ARRIVAL OF UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF           
 H3 JET MAX FCST TO MOVE OVER SE ONTARIO BY 12Z FRI. GFS FCST SDNGS             
 ARE QUITE A BIT MORE MOIST THRU MOST OF THE TROP IN LINE WITH OBSVD            
 12Z YQD SDNG...BUT MODEL FCST SDNGS DO SHOW LINGERING DRY LYR BTWN             
 H75-55...WHICH WOULD ALSO BE THE PRIME DENDRITIC SN GROWTH LYR.                
 CONSIDERING THIS DRY LYR AS WELL AS ANTECEDENT DRY AIR...LIMITED               
 COVG OF OBSVD SN UPSTREAM...AND NAM FCST...HAVE OPTED TO RETAIN POPS           
 BUT CUT VALUES FM HI CHC TO LWR CHC IN LINE WITH GFS MOS GUIDANCE.             
 AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT MIN TEMPS RELATIVELY EARLY BEFORE THICKER MID            
 CLD/A BIT STRONGER SW FLOW DVLPS W-E AFT EARLY THIS EVNG.                      
 KC                                                                             
 .LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                        
 THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST REMAINS             
 THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE           
 WEEKEND.                                                                       
 ONCE AGAIN FOR THIS PERIOD...AM GENERALLY DISCOUNTING THE NAM...AS             
 IT IS OUT OF BOUNDS WHEN COMPARED TO THE GLOBAL MODELS.  AS A                  
 RESULT...HAVE LEANED THIS FORECAST CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION.                 
 GFS OFF OF BUFKIT IS PUTTING OUT OVER HALF AN INCH OF QFP OVER IWD             
 DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRACK OF THE                  
 SURFACE LOW...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN NORTHWEST                   
 TERRITORIES SLIDING INTO NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.  THIS LOW WILL SLIDE           
 SOUTHEASTWARD...AND OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY FRIDAY           
 AFTERNOON AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD OVER LAKE HURON BY 12Z SATURDAY.              
 THIS WILL FIRST ALLOW FOR A LONG SOUTHERLY FETCH ACROSS LAKE                   
 MICHIGAN LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON (GENERALLY 2 TO           
 4 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS THIS AREA FRIDAY)...AND THEN SWING            
 THE WINDS OUT OF A GENERALLY NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION FRIDAY           
 NIGHT (AND KEEP THEM BETWEEN 300 AND 030 THROUGH TUESDAY).  850MB              
 TEMPERATURES...AFTER WARMING TO -7C OR SO FRIDAY WILL COOL DOWN TO             
 -12C ACROSS THE AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A BETTER CHANCE            
 OF LAKE EFFECT OR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW.  850MB TEMPERATURES WILL THEN            
 SLOWLY COOL TO -20 TO -22C BY 06Z SUNDAY.  GIVEN THIS...HAVE HOISTED           
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCHES FOR GOGEBIC...ONTONAGON...MARQUETTE...AND             
 ALGER COUNTIES FOR SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MID DAY SUNDAY.                    
 FOR FRIDAY NIGHT HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS           
 OUR CLIMATOLOGICALLY COOLER SOUTH CENTRAL CWA...WITH THE IDEA THAT             
 THE DRY SLOT MAY COME IN EARLY AND ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP.  FIRST COLD            
 FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE CWA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH 06Z           
 SATURDAY.  COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO SLIDE IN.              
 EXPECT THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES                    
 SUNDAY...AS THE COLDEST AIR SINKS OVERHEAD.  WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY               
 SUNDAY...ADDING TO THE CONVERGENCE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE               
 LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE FROM MUNISING EAST.  AS HAS BEEN THE TREND             
 OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF SHIFTS...HAVE INCREASED POPS HERE TO                   
 DEFINITE.  AS FOR RIGHT NOW...DO NOT HAVE ANY WATCHES/WARNINGS OR              
 ADVISORIES POSTED FOR THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA (EXCEPT ALGER            
 COUNTY)...BUT AS THE TIME NEARS HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.               
 MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY (DAYS 4-7)...WITH THE RELATIVE CONSISTENCY             
 IN THE EXTENDED RANGE...WITH LESS MODEL FLIP FLOPPING THAN                     
 USUAL...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE...PARTICULARLY TO TEMPERATURES.                  
 STILL...DID COOL DOWN TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 4 DEGREES ACROSS THE                
 BOARD MONDAY AFTERNOON.  SO THE OVERALL PATTERN INCLUDES A SERIES OF           
 SHORTWAVES IN THE POLAR/ARCTIC JET CONTINUALLY RE-ENFORCING OUR                
 ALREADY COLD AIRMASS.                                                          
 MONDAY 12Z...LOOKING AT THE MID LEVELS...THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO            
 BECOME A LITTLE MORE NOTICEABLE IN THERE DIFFERENCES.  THE 500MB               
 DEPICTED BY THE GFS...ALTHOUGH SIMILAR IN STRENGTH IS ABLE TO SLIDE            
 FURTHER SOUTHWARD...MAKING IT INTO EASTERN LAKE HURON BY THIS                  
 TIME...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS IT REMAINING OVER EASTERN HUDSON BAY.  AS           
 PREVIOUSLY STATED...GENERALLY DISREGARDED THIS DISCREPANCY...AND               
 SIDED CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION.  UPDATED AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER           
 FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...AS SHORTWAVE SLIDES IN FROM THE                 
 NORTHWEST...ACCORDING TO THE 06Z GFS.  ALTHOUGH IT SEEMS THAT THE              
 SHORTWAVE HAS DROPPED FURTHER SOUTH FOR THE 12Z GFS RUN...STILL                
 BELIEVE THAT WE WILL HAVE MORE THAN 40 PERCENT CLOUD COVER FOR THIS            
 PERIOD...SO HAVE KEPT THE ADJUSTED MORE PESSIMISTIC CLOUD FOR MONDAY           
 INTO MONDAY NIGHT.                                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY                    
 AFTERNOON FOR MIZ005-006.                                                      
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY                   
 MORNING FOR MIZ002-009.                                                        
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 .SHORT TERM...KC                                                               
 .LONG TERM...KF                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                          
 1000 AM EST THU JAN 25 2007                                                    
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 12Z RAOBS/WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW HI AMPLITUDE TROF IN ERN            
 NAMERICA DOWNSTREAM OF RDG OVER THE ROCKIES. LES CONTINUES OVER THE            
 FA DOWNSTREAM OF LK SUP IN COLD N FLOW BTWN HI PRES IN NW ONTARIO              
 AND LO PRES TROF EXTENDING FM LK HURON INTO CNTRL LK SUP. 12Z TAMDAR           
 SDNG FM SAW SHOWS INVRN AT H825 WITH BASE TEMP A CHILLY -25C. RUC              
 ANALYSIS SHOWS H85 THERMAL TROF OVER LK SUP ATTM. SPOTTER REPORT FM            
 EBEN JUNCTION IN WRN ALGER COUNTY INDICATES 8 INCHES FELL THERE                
 DURING THE NGT WHERE HEAVIER LES BAND LINGERED LONGER. REPORTS IN              
 GOGEBIC COUNTY/ERN MQT COUNTY SHOW 4-6 INCHES ACCUMULATION.                    
 HOWEVER... THE OVERALL SHSN INTENSITY/COVG HAS BEEN DIMINISHED                 
 SOMEWHAT BY VERY DRY/STABLE AIR UPSTREAM OVER ONTARIO ASSOCIATED               
 WITH THE ARCTIC HI PRES. SFC DWPTS -30F TO -40F WDSPRD OVER ONTARIO            
 N OF LK SUP...AND 12Z TAMDAR SDNG FM YQT AS WELL AS RAOBS FM INL/YPL           
 SHOW INVRN BASE H925-95 AND PWAT 0.05-0.10 INCH. IN FACT DESPITE               
 LLVL CNVGC ALG TROF IN ALGER COUNTY BTWN NW LAND BREEZE FM THE W AND           
 MORE NNE FLOW OVER THE E OFF ONTARIO...MQT 88D SHOWS LES BANDS HAVE            
 BECOME RATHER DISORGANIZED WITH IMPACT OF DRY/STABLE ADVCTN AS WELL            
 AS SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE SUB INVRN LYR DEPICTED ON MQT VWP.            
 FEW REFLECTIVITIES ABV 20DBZ REMAIN. SHORTER FETCH/LAND BREEZE FLOW            
 OFF ONTARIO HAVE PRETTY MUCH ENDED THE LES OVER THE FAR ERN CWA. SFC           
 TEMP IN CHIPPEWA COUNTY HAS FALLEN TO ARND -10F WITH DRIER FLOW.               
 MAIN FCST CONCERNS TDAY INVOLVE LES TRENDS/ADDITIONAL AMTS/GOING               
 HEADLINES.                                                                     
 FOR TDAY...GUIDANCE SHOWS HGT RISES BLDG HI PRES INTO THE UPR GRT              
 LKS. ARRIVAL OF MORE ACYC FLOW/LOWER INVRN HGT WL DIMINISH THE LES             
 W-E. IN FACT...EXPECT THE SHSN TO END OVER THE W AT IWD THIS AFTN AS           
 LLVL FLOW BACKS TO THE SW. GOING FCST HAS THESE LARGE SCALE TRENDS             
 WELL IN HAND...SO NEED TO MAKE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FCST WX AND           
 SN AMTS. WL ALLOW GOING HEADLINES TO CONT/EXPIRE AS FCST. EXCEPT TO            
 BUMP UP FCST HI TEMPS AT A FEW PLACES MAINLY NR LK SUP BASED ON                
 CURRENT TEMPS...ONLY A FEW TWEAKS NECESSARY TO GOING MAX TEMPS FCST.           
 KC                                                                             
 .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 404 AM)...                                     
 08Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING              
 FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHERN ALBERTA WHILE UPPER TROUGHING           
 DOMINATED SE CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WITHIN THIS TROUGH...A               
 SHRTWV CAN BE SEEN DIVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO...NOW             
 NEAR WAWA. 850MB TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHRTWV APPEAR TO BE                
 AROUND -25C BASED ON 00Z RAOBS FROM MOOSONEE AND PICKLE LAKE.                  
 ALTHOUGH THE AIR IS QUITE COLD WITH THE SHRTWV...VERY LITTLE IS                
 OCCURRING ON IR IMAGERY WITH IT DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF VERY DRY AIR            
 (PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 0.04 INCHES ON THE PICKLE LAKE SOUNDING).               
 SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ALSO DEPICT THE SAME STORY OVER             
 NORTHERN ONTARIO...WITH READINGS WELL BELOW ZERO F. THE COLD AND DRY           
 AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON NORTHERLY WINDS                  
 BETWEEN A 1032MB HIGH OVER NW ONTARIO AND A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH THAT           
 EXTENDS FROM LAKE ERIE TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. A LAKE INDUCED TROUGH            
 ALSO EXTENDS FROM LAKE ERIE NW TO NEAR ONTONAGON. PLENTY OF LAKE               
 EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXIST DUE TO THE COLD AIR FLOWING OVER 2-3C                
 WATER TEMPS. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW DISORGANIZED BANDS IN           
 ALGER AND EASTERN MARQUETTE COUNTIES...THOUGH THERE ARE A FEW 28DBZ            
 PIXELS WITHIN THEM. THERE WERE ALSO SOME INTENSE BANDS OCCURRING IN            
 THE FAR WESTERN U.P. OVERNIGHT...WITH THE BESSEMER AREA PICKING UP             
 AROUND 6 INCHES SINCE 7 PM CST PER THE COUNTY SHERIFF. HOWEVER...              
 OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS GREATLY                 
 DIMINISHED FOR THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS ON WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. TO              
 OUR NW...A 130 KT JET STREAK IS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN ONTARIO.                
 UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION IS HELPING SUPPORT               
 MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA. THESE CLOUDS ARE ALSO                  
 ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHRTWV TROUGH WHICH CAN BE SEEN MOVING                
 ACROSS NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA.                                              
 &&                                                                             
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WARM ADVECTION SNOW TONIGHT/FRI AND LES             
 EVENT FOR FRI NIGHT/SAT.                                                       
 TODAY...SHRTWV NEAR WAWA WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHWARD IN            
 THE MAINLY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...REACHING SOUTHERN LAKE HURON BY              
 18Z. AS THIS SHRTWV PASSES...IT WILL CAUSE THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA              
 OVER NW ONTARIO TO BE PULLED DOWN INTO THE CWA BY 00Z. THEREFORE...            
 LES SHOULD BE ON A DIMINISHING TREND. IN FACT...THE LES IS EXPECTED            
 TO END IN THE WESTERN U.P. DUE TO A COMBINATION OF A CRASHING                  
 INVERSION AND STRONG DRY AIR ADVECTION...DESPITE LAKE SURFACE TO               
 850MB DELTA-TS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 16C. CURRENT LES TRENDS ON                
 WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR SUPPORT THIS ASSESSMENT TOO. FOR THE NORTH               
 CENTRAL U.P....THE ENDING TREND WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE WIND                  
 DIRECTION SINCE DELTA-TS ARE PROGGED AT OR ABOVE 20C AND THE LONGER            
 FETCH OF EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL MITIGATE THE MOISTURE.                     
 HOWEVER...THE LAKE EFFECT WILL NOT BE AS GREAT AS IT WAS YESTERDAY             
 OR LAST NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS REMAINING CHILLY...ONLY WARMING TO             
 -14C WEST OT -20C EAST...WILL CONTINUE TO STAY ON THE LOW END OF               
 GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.                                                            
 AS FAR AS HEADLINE CHANGES...DROPPED ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN                     
 SCHOOLCRAFT AS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOWFALL APPEARS TO HAVE                   
 OCCURRED THERE OVERNIGHT PER RADAR IMAGERY. ALL OTHER HEADLINES WILL           
 CONTINUE TO THEIR EXPIRATION TIMES.                                            
 TONIGHT...SHRTWV TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA IS            
 PROGGED TO DROP SE TO LAKE WINNIPEG BY 12Z FRI...WITH A 997MB LOW OR           
 SO LOCATED NEAR THE NE END. AS THIS OCCURS...A PORTION OF THE                  
 WESTERN RIDGE WILL COME DOWN AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...CAUSING THE HIGH            
 PRESSURE AREA OVER UPPER MICHIGAN TO SLIDE EASTWARD. WARM ADVECTION            
 ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH/AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV TROUGH...COMBINED             
 WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 130KT JET STREAK CURRENTLY           
 IN MANITOBA MOVING TO LAKE HURON...WILL CAUSE A BAND OF MID CLOUDS             
 TO MOVE INTO THE CWA. INITIALLY...DRY LOW LEVELS SHOULD PREVENT                
 PCPN. HOWEVER...CONTINUED ISENTROPIC LIFTING/FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING           
 WILL CAUSE BASES TO LOWER AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND SOME LIGHT SNOW IS              
 EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE              
 DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SNOW...THOUGH...AS NOTED BY NAM SOUNDINGS WHICH            
 SUGGEST THE DRIER LOW LEVELS WILL STAY FIRMLY IN PLACE. GIVEN THIS             
 DISAGREEMENT...AM HESITANT TO GO LIKELY YET...THOUGH WITH THE                  
 CONSISTENCY OF THE GFS AND A LOCAL WRF-ARW RUN SHOWING A SIMILAR               
 SCENARIO TO THE GFS...FEEL AN UPGRADE TO 50 POPS IS WARRANTED.                 
 TEMPERATURES ARE STILL TRICKY GIVEN THAT THERE WILL BE A FEW HOURS             
 IN THE EVENING WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND. GOING FORECAST               
 MINS LOOK REASONABLE. READINGS SHOULD CLIMB AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH                
 RETURN FLOW AND INCOMING WARM ADVECTION PCPN.                                  
 FRI...SHRTWV TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING SE...REACHING MINNESOTAS              
 INTERNATIONAL BORDER AROUND 00Z. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE           
 TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN U.P.. BAND OF WARM                  
 ADVECTION SNOW WHICH IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE U.P. IN             
 THE MORNING WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE DAY...PERHAPS GETTING                   
 ENHANCED BY A LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE EFFECT BAND. BEHIND THE WARM                  
 ADVECTION SNOW...A DRY SLOT IS PROGGED TO COME IN ALOFT. SOME                  
 CONCERN EXISTS THAT THE SNOW MAY TAPER OFF TO FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT           
 RIGHT NOW THE -10C LAYER STILL REMAIN SATURATED...SO THE SNOW MAY              
 JUST TO TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES OR NOTHING AT ALL. FOR NOW WILL                  
 MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SNOW INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE MUCH LOWER             
 QPF VALUES THEN. HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY IN THE WESTERN              
 U.P. GIVEN THAT GUIDANCE HAS WARMED UP IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...THE           
 REST OF THE HIGH TEMP FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE.                               
 FRI NIGHT AND SAT...DURING THIS PERIOD...THE SHRTWV TROUGH IS                  
 PROGGED BY ALL MODELS TO SWING THROUGH THE CWA. COLD AIR ADVECTION             
 AT 850MB SHOULD ALREADY BE GOING ON FRI EVENING...WITH 850MB TEMPS             
 FALLING TO -12 TO -14C BY 06Z...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GET LAKE             
 EFFECT GOING...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN U.P. GIVEN THE PROGGED WNW            
 LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW. LAKE EFFECT WILL ALSO GET SOME SYNOPTIC SUPPORT           
 DUE TO DPVA AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV TROUGH. HAVE INCLUDED A FEW INCHES             
 OF SNOWFALL...HOWEVER IF THE TROUGH COMES IN FASTER...AT LEAST                 
 ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL SHOULD BE MET FOR FRI NIGHT. SINCE IT LOOKS            
 CERTAIN THAT SOME LAKE EFFECT WILL OCCUR IN THE WESTERN U.P....HAVE            
 RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL. THINGS GET A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING ON            
 SAT. ON SAT...AS THE SHRTWV TROUGH AND ITS ACCOMPANYING MID-LEVEL              
 MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS...A SECONDARY SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED              
 WITH THE SHRTWVS SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS LAKE              
 SUPERIOR. GIVEN THAT 850MB TEMPS COOL A FEW MORE DEGREES C...                  
 RESULTING IN PLENTY OF OVER-WATER INSTABILITY...THERE WILL LIKELY BE           
 A SIGNIFICANT CONVERGENT LAKE EFFECT BAND ALONG THE FRONT. WOULD NOT           
 BE SURPRISED TO SEE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW FALL OUT OF THIS BAND           
 ACROSS ALL OF THE NORTHERN U.P.. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE PRETTY             
 IMPRESSIVE WHEN THE BAND COMES THROUGH...INDICATING SATURATED                  
 CONDITIONS UP TO 15000 FT AND THE ONLY INVERSION BEING THAT OF THE             
 TROPOPAUSE. IN ADDITION...NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...ALONG             
 WITH PLENTY OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND SHOULD SUPPORT MORE            
 INTENSE MULTI-PARALLEL BANDS THAN THOSE TODAY. GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY           
 FROM THE MODELS PREDICTING THIS EVENT...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO                 
 CATEGORICAL. IN FACT...HAVE EVEN INCLUDED THE WORDING OF HEAVY AT              
 TIMES FOR THE FAR WESTERN U.P. AS THIS AREA WILL SEE STRONG LOW                
 LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALL DAY. HAVE ADJUSTED QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS UPWARD TO            
 NEAR WARNING CRITERIA FOR THE FAR WESTERN U.P. WITH THE REST OF THE            
 NORTHERN U.P. AT ADVISORY LEVEL. FOR NOW...THE EVENT WILL CONTINUE             
 TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO...BUT FUTURE SHIFTS WILL LIKELY NEED TO           
 ISSUE WATCHES...WARNINGS AND/OR ADVISORIES.                                    
 SAT NIGHT AND SUN...GFS/UKMET/ECMWF INDICATE THAT AFTER THE PASSAGE            
 OF SATURDAYS SHRTWV TROUGH...ANOTHER SHRTWV WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD                
 THROUGH MINNESOTA AND INTO ILLINOIS. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS             
 SHRTWV LOOKS TO STAY TO THE WEST OF HERE...THEREFORE WITH 850MB                
 TEMPS COOLING INTO THE LOW -20S C...DRY AIR ADVECTION AND LOWERING             
 INVERSIONS...THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE ON A DIMINISHING TREND               
 THROUGH THIS PERIOD. OTHERWISE...WITH THE COOLER 850MB                         
 TEMPS...READINGS WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR FRI AND SAT WILL            
 GO BACK TO BELOW NORMAL.                                                       
 BEYOND SUN...LOOKS LIKE THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN COLD WITH PERIODS OF           
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW. LOOKING FARTHER OUT TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF                 
 FEBRUARY...THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF CONSISTENCY WITH PAST GFS AND               
 ECMWF RUNS...INCLUDING THOSE TODAY...SUGGESTING A COLDER ARCTIC                
 AIRMASS TO MOVE INTO THE CWA WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND THE -30C MARK.            
 WILL WAIT AND SEE IF THIS OCCURS...BUT GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY...IT              
 BEARS WATCHING.                                                                
 COORD WITH GRB AND HPC...THANKS.                                               
 AJ                                                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR MIZ006 UNTIL 22Z.                               
   LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR MIZ005-013 UNTIL 18Z.                          
   LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR MIZ002-009 UNTIL 12Z.                          
   LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR MIZ085 UNTIL 22Z.                              
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                          
 404 AM EST THU JAN 25 2007                                                     
 .SYNOPSIS...                                                                   
 08Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING              
 FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHERN ALBERTA WHILE UPPER TROUGHING           
 DOMINATED SE CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WITHIN THIS TROUGH...A               
 SHRTWV CAN BE SEEN DIVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO...NOW             
 NEAR WAWA. 850MB TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHRTWV APPEAR TO BE                
 AROUND -25C BASED ON 00Z RAOBS FROM MOOSONEE AND PICKLE LAKE.                  
 ALTHOUGH THE AIR IS QUITE COLD WITH THE SHRTWV...VERY LITTLE IS                
 OCCURRING ON IR IMAGERY WITH IT DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF VERY DRY AIR            
 (PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 0.04 INCHES ON THE PICKLE LAKE SOUNDING).               
 SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ALSO DEPICT THE SAME STORY OVER             
 NORTHERN ONTARIO...WITH READINGS WELL BELOW ZERO F. THE COLD AND DRY           
 AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON NORTHERLY WINDS                  
 BETWEEN A 1032MB HIGH OVER NW ONTARIO AND A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH THAT           
 EXTENDS FROM LAKE ERIE TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. A LAKE INDUCED TROUGH            
 ALSO EXTENDS FROM LAKE ERIE NW TO NEAR ONTONAGON. PLENTY OF LAKE               
 EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXIST DUE TO THE COLD AIR FLOWING OVER 2-3C                
 WATER TEMPS. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW DISORGANIZED BANDS IN           
 ALGER AND EASTERN MARQUETTE COUNTIES...THOUGH THERE ARE A FEW 28DBZ            
 PIXELS WITHIN THEM. THERE WERE ALSO SOME INTENSE BANDS OCCURRING IN            
 THE FAR WESTERN U.P. OVERNIGHT...WITH THE BESSEMER AREA PICKING UP             
 AROUND 6 INCHES SINCE 7 PM CST PER THE COUNTY SHERIFF. HOWEVER...              
 OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS GREATLY                 
 DIMINISHED FOR THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS ON WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. TO              
 OUR NW...A 130 KT JET STREAK IS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN ONTARIO.                
 UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION IS HELPING SUPPORT               
 MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA. THESE CLOUDS ARE ALSO                  
 ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHRTWV TROUGH WHICH CAN BE SEEN MOVING                
 ACROSS NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA.                                              
 &&                                                                             
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WARM ADVECTION SNOW TONIGHT/FRI AND LES             
 EVENT FOR FRI NIGHT/SAT.                                                       
 TODAY...SHRTWV NEAR WAWA WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHWARD IN            
 THE MAINLY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...REACHING SOUTHERN LAKE HURON BY              
 18Z. AS THIS SHRTWV PASSES...IT WILL CAUSE THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA              
 OVER NW ONTARIO TO BE PULLED DOWN INTO THE CWA BY 00Z. THEREFORE...            
 LES SHOULD BE ON A DIMINISHING TREND. IN FACT...THE LES IS EXPECTED            
 TO END IN THE WESTERN U.P. DUE TO A COMBINATION OF A CRASHING                  
 INVERSION AND STRONG DRY AIR ADVECTION...DESPITE LAKE SURFACE TO               
 850MB DELTA-TS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 16C. CURRENT LES TRENDS ON                
 WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR SUPPORT THIS ASSESSMENT TOO. FOR THE NORTH               
 CENTRAL U.P....THE ENDING TREND WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE WIND                  
 DIRECTION SINCE DELTA-TS ARE PROGGED AT OR ABOVE 20C AND THE LONGER            
 FETCH OF EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL MITIGATE THE MOISTURE.                     
 HOWEVER...THE LAKE EFFECT WILL NOT BE AS GREAT AS IT WAS YESTERDAY             
 OR LAST NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS REMAINING CHILLY...ONLY WARMING TO             
 -14C WEST OT -20C EAST...WILL CONTINUE TO STAY ON THE LOW END OF               
 GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.                                                            
 AS FAR AS HEADLINE CHANGES...DROPPED ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN                     
 SCHOOLCRAFT AS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOWFALL APPEARS TO HAVE                   
 OCCURRED THERE OVERNIGHT PER RADAR IMAGERY. ALL OTHER HEADLINES WILL           
 CONTINUE TO THEIR EXPIRATION TIMES.                                            
 TONIGHT...SHRTWV TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA IS            
 PROGGED TO DROP SE TO LAKE WINNIPEG BY 12Z FRI...WITH A 997MB LOW OR           
 SO LOCATED NEAR THE NE END. AS THIS OCCURS...A PORTION OF THE                  
 WESTERN RIDGE WILL COME DOWN AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...CAUSING THE HIGH            
 PRESSURE AREA OVER UPPER MICHIGAN TO SLIDE EASTWARD. WARM ADVECTION            
 ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH/AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV TROUGH...COMBINED             
 WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 130KT JET STREAK CURRENTLY           
 IN MANITOBA MOVING TO LAKE HURON...WILL CAUSE A BAND OF MID CLOUDS             
 TO MOVE INTO THE CWA. INITIALLY...DRY LOW LEVELS SHOULD PREVENT                
 PCPN. HOWEVER...CONTINUED ISENTROPIC LIFTING/FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING           
 WILL CAUSE BASES TO LOWER AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND SOME LIGHT SNOW IS              
 EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE              
 DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SNOW...THOUGH...AS NOTED BY NAM SOUNDINGS WHICH            
 SUGGEST THE DRIER LOW LEVELS WILL STAY FIRMLY IN PLACE. GIVEN THIS             
 DISAGREEMENT...AM HESITANT TO GO LIKELY YET...THOUGH WITH THE                  
 CONSISTENCY OF THE GFS AND A LOCAL WRF-ARW RUN SHOWING A SIMILAR               
 SCENARIO TO THE GFS...FEEL AN UPGRADE TO 50 POPS IS WARRANTED.                 
 TEMPERATURES ARE STILL TRICKY GIVEN THAT THERE WILL BE A FEW HOURS             
 IN THE EVENING WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND. GOING FORECAST               
 MINS LOOK REASONABLE. READINGS SHOULD CLIMB AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH                
 RETURN FLOW AND INCOMING WARM ADVECTION PCPN.                                  
 FRI...SHRTWV TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING SE...REACHING MINNESOTAS              
 INTERNATIONAL BORDER AROUND 00Z. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE           
 TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN U.P.. BAND OF WARM                  
 ADVECTION SNOW WHICH IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE U.P. IN             
 THE MORNING WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE DAY...PERHAPS GETTING                   
 ENHANCED BY A LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE EFFECT BAND. BEHIND THE WARM                  
 ADVECTION SNOW...A DRY SLOT IS PROGGED TO COME IN ALOFT. SOME                  
 CONCERN EXISTS THAT THE SNOW MAY TAPER OFF TO FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT           
 RIGHT NOW THE -10C LAYER STILL REMAIN SATURATED...SO THE SNOW MAY              
 JUST TO TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES OR NOTHING AT ALL. FOR NOW WILL                  
 MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SNOW INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE MUCH LOWER             
 QPF VALUES THEN. HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY IN THE WESTERN              
 U.P. GIVEN THAT GUIDANCE HAS WARMED UP IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...THE           
 REST OF THE HIGH TEMP FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE.                               
 FRI NIGHT AND SAT...DURING THIS PERIOD...THE SHRTWV TROUGH IS                  
 PROGGED BY ALL MODELS TO SWING THROUGH THE CWA. COLD AIR ADVECTION             
 AT 850MB SHOULD ALREADY BE GOING ON FRI EVENING...WITH 850MB TEMPS             
 FALLING TO -12 TO -14C BY 06Z...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GET LAKE             
 EFFECT GOING...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN U.P. GIVEN THE PROGGED WNW            
 LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW. LAKE EFFECT WILL ALSO GET SOME SYNOPTIC SUPPORT           
 DUE TO DPVA AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV TROUGH. HAVE INCLUDED A FEW INCHES             
 OF SNOWFALL...HOWEVER IF THE TROUGH COMES IN FASTER...AT LEAST                 
 ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL SHOULD BE MET FOR FRI NIGHT. SINCE IT LOOKS            
 CERTAIN THAT SOME LAKE EFFECT WILL OCCUR IN THE WESTERN U.P....HAVE            
 RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL. THINGS GET A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING ON            
 SAT. ON SAT...AS THE SHRTWV TROUGH AND ITS ACCOMPANYING MID-LEVEL              
 MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS...A SECONDARY SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED              
 WITH THE SHRTWVS SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS LAKE              
 SUPERIOR. GIVEN THAT 850MB TEMPS COOL A FEW MORE DEGREES C...                  
 RESULTING IN PLENTY OF OVER-WATER INSTABILITY...THERE WILL LIKELY BE           
 A SIGNIFICANT CONVERGENT LAKE EFFECT BAND ALONG THE FRONT. WOULD NOT           
 BE SURPRISED TO SEE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW FALL OUT OF THIS BAND           
 ACROSS ALL OF THE NORTHERN U.P.. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE PRETTY             
 IMPRESSIVE WHEN THE BAND COMES THROUGH...INDICATING SATURATED                  
 CONDITIONS UP TO 15000 FT AND THE ONLY INVERSION BEING THAT OF THE             
 TROPOPAUSE. IN ADDITION...NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...ALONG             
 WITH PLENTY OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND SHOULD SUPPORT MORE            
 INTENSE MULTI-PARALLEL BANDS THAN THOSE TODAY. GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY           
 FROM THE MODELS PREDICTING THIS EVENT...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO                 
 CATEGORICAL. IN FACT...HAVE EVEN INCLUDED THE WORDING OF HEAVY AT              
 TIMES FOR THE FAR WESTERN U.P. AS THIS AREA WILL SEE STRONG LOW                
 LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALL DAY. HAVE ADJUSTED QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS UPWARD TO            
 NEAR WARNING CRITERIA FOR THE FAR WESTERN U.P. WITH THE REST OF THE            
 NORTHERN U.P. AT ADVISORY LEVEL. FOR NOW...THE EVENT WILL CONTINUE             
 TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO...BUT FUTURE SHIFTS WILL LIKELY NEED TO           
 ISSUE WATCHES...WARNINGS AND/OR ADVISORIES.                                    
 SAT NIGHT AND SUN...GFS/UKMET/ECMWF INDICATE THAT AFTER THE PASSAGE            
 OF SATURDAYS SHRTWV TROUGH...ANOTHER SHRTWV WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD                
 THROUGH MINNESOTA AND INTO ILLINOIS. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS             
 SHRTWV LOOKS TO STAY TO THE WEST OF HERE...THEREFORE WITH 850MB                
 TEMPS COOLING INTO THE LOW -20S C...DRY AIR ADVECTION AND LOWERING             
 INVERSIONS...THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE ON A DIMINISHING TREND               
 THROUGH THIS PERIOD. OTHERWISE...WITH THE COOLER 850MB                         
 TEMPS...READINGS WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR FRI AND SAT WILL            
 GO BACK TO BELOW NORMAL.                                                       
 BEYOND SUN...LOOKS LIKE THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN COLD WITH PERIODS OF           
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW. LOOKING FARTHER OUT TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF                 
 FEBRUARY...THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF CONSISTENCY WITH PAST GFS AND               
 ECMWF RUNS...INCLUDING THOSE TODAY...SUGGESTING A COLDER ARCTIC                
 AIRMASS TO MOVE INTO THE CWA WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND THE -30C MARK.            
 WILL WAIT AND SEE IF THIS OCCURS...BUT GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY...IT              
 BEARS WATCHING.                                                                
 COORD WITH GRB AND HPC...THANKS.                                               
 &&                                                                             
 .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR MIZ006 UNTIL 22Z.                               
   LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR MIZ005-013 UNTIL 18Z.                          
   LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR MIZ002-009 UNTIL 12Z.                          
   LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR MIZ085 UNTIL 22Z.                              
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 AJ                                                                             
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                           
 936 PM CST FRI JAN 26 2007                                                     
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 MADE SOME FAIRLY MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY GRIDS TONIGHT AND                
 INTO ERY SAT...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE LACK OF CLOUD DVLPMNT DURG THE             
 EVE ALG OR BHND THE FNT. ALTHO SM LWR CLD DVLPMT MAY STILL OCR                 
 OVRNGT ACR THE N... MAIN CLOUD EMPHASIS SHOULD COME FROM MOISTURE              
 STREAMING NE FROM SYS OVER THE SW U.S...WITH CLDS OVERSPREADING S              
 HALF OF FA DURG THE PREDAWN HRS.                                               
 ALTHO WE ARE STILL QUITE MILD AT 03Z DIDN`T CHANGE MIN TEMPS TOO               
 MUCH...AS WE EXPECT THAT THE LO TEMP WL OCR IN THE 13-15Z TIME FRAME.          
 FOR SAT...CLDS ASSOC WITH SYS IN S BRANCH OF WESTERLIES SHUD CONT              
 TO AFFECT S PARTS OF FA...WHILE CU/SC SHUD BE ON THE INCR OVR N                
 AREAS AS SCNDRY CDFNT AND ASSOC LO LVL MOISTURE DROPS INTO AREA.               
 TRUETT                                                                         
 &&                                                                             
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF TO OUR SE ALLOWING                        
 SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO RETURN TO THE REGION TODAY. AS A RESULT...              
 TEMPS HAVE WARMED UP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S AS OF 20Z. IN             
 THE MEANTIME...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SFC LOW OVER NRN WI THRU             
 IA THEN INTO SWRN KS. THIS WILL BE OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER...WITH               
 MAIN AFFECT BEING CLOUDS...MUCH COLDER TEMPS AND SOME                          
 FLURRIES/SPRINKLES.                                                            
 FOR TONIGHT...FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN PTNS OF AREA BY 05Z...             
 THEN SLIDE SE EXITING CWA BY 14Z.  AS FRONT APPROACHES AREA...LOW              
 LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. THAT IN CONJUNCTION WITH               
 SOME LIFT ALONG BOUNDARY...WILL SEE CLOUDS DEVELOP AS THE EVENING              
 PROGRESSES. BECAUSE OF THE SWRLY WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT AND INCREASING           
 CLOUDS...ONLY EXPECT LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 20S N TO MID 30S S.                  
 ON SATURDAY...AS COLDER AIR MAKES ITS WAY INTO AREA ALONG WITH                 
 THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS...EXPECT SOME FLURRY/SPRINKLE                   
 ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER            
 THAN TONIGHT/S LOWS...FROM AROUND 30 N TO AROUND 40 FAR S.                     
 THE ARCTIC AIR REALLY SINKS SOUTH OVER REGION LATE SATURDAY                    
 AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...POSSIBLY GIVING US SOME OF            
 OUR COLDEST WEATHER YET. HOWEVER...THE LINGERING CLOUDS WILL KEEP              
 TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO MUCH. WILL SEE LOWS AROUND 10 N TO UPPER                
 TEENS FAR S WITH SOME FLURRIES.                                                
 ON SUNDAY...WILL BEGIN TO SEE SOME CLEARING AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS                
 IN...BUT TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.              
 BEYOND THAT...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES SEE SAW PATTERN WITH                 
 SYSTEMS AFFECTING REGION ABOUT EVERY OTHER DAY. NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME           
 FLURRIES ON MONDAY...THEN AGAIN ON WED AFTERNOON THRU THU NIGHT.               
 BYRD                                                                           
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 FOR THE 00Z TAFS...CDFNT EXTDG FM SFC LOW OVR WI SW THRU NWRN MO               
 OK PNHDL WL MOV SEWD THRU THE CWA TGT. CDFNT SHOULD MOVR THRU UIN              
 ARND 03Z...COU 05-06Z...AND STL AND SUS FM 07-08Z. SFC WNDS WILL               
 VEER ARND TO A NWLY DIRECTION BHND CDFNT. RUC AND GFS MDLS FCST AT             
 LEAST A BAND OF POST FRONTAL STRATUS OR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS DVLPG             
 AND MOVG SEWD THRU THE CWA LTR TGT INTO SAT. GFS MDL TIME HGT                  
 SECTION OF RH FOR STL SHOW INCRSG MOISTURE BLW 850 MB THIS EVNG.               
 CLOUD CEILING SHOULD SLOWLY RISE ON SAT BASED ON GFS MOS CIG                   
 HEIGHT GUIDANCE AND RH TIME HGT PROFILE. NWLY SFC WNDS SHOULD BCM              
 RELATIVELY STG AND GUSTY BY SAT AFTN.                                          
 GKS                                                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 MO...NONE.                                                                     
 IL...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 WFO LSX                                                                        
</pre> mo                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                           
 611 PM CST FRI JAN 26 2007                                                     
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF TO OUR SE ALLOWING                        
 SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO RETURN TO THE REGION TODAY. AS A RESULT...              
 TEMPS HAVE WARMED UP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S AS OF 20Z. IN             
 THE MEANTIME...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SFC LOW OVER NRN WI THRU             
 IA THEN INTO SWRN KS. THIS WILL BE OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER...WITH               
 MAIN AFFECT BEING CLOUDS...MUCH COLDER TEMPS AND SOME                          
 FLURRIES/SPRINKLES.                                                            
 FOR TONIGHT...FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN PTNS OF AREA BY 05Z...             
 THEN SLIDE SE EXITING CWA BY 14Z.  AS FRONT APPROACHES AREA...LOW              
 LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. THAT IN CONJUNCTION WITH               
 SOME LIFT ALONG BOUNDARY...WILL SEE CLOUDS DEVELOP AS THE EVENING              
 PROGRESSES. BECAUSE OF THE SWRLY WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT AND INCREASING           
 CLOUDS...ONLY EXPECT LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 20S N TO MID 30S S.                  
 ON SATURDAY...AS COLDER AIR MAKES ITS WAY INTO AREA ALONG WITH                 
 THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS...EXPECT SOME FLURRY/SPRINKLE                   
 ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER            
 THAN TONIGHT/S LOWS...FROM AROUND 30 N TO AROUND 40 FAR S.                     
 THE ARCTIC AIR REALLY SINKS SOUTH OVER REGION LATE SATURDAY                    
 AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...POSSIBLY GIVING US SOME OF            
 OUR COLDEST WEATHER YET. HOWEVER...THE LINGERING CLOUDS WILL KEEP              
 TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO MUCH. WILL SEE LOWS AROUND 10 N TO UPPER                
 TEENS FAR S WITH SOME FLURRIES.                                                
 ON SUNDAY...WILL BEGIN TO SEE SOME CLEARING AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS                
 IN...BUT TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.              
 BEYOND THAT...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES SEE SAW PATTERN WITH                 
 SYSTEMS AFFECTING REGION ABOUT EVERY OTHER DAY. NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME           
 FLURRIES ON MONDAY...THEN AGAIN ON WED AFTERNOON THRU THU NIGHT.               
 BYRD                                                                           
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 FOR THE 00Z TAFS...CDFNT EXTDG FM SFC LOW OVR WI SW THRU NWRN MO               
 OK PNHDL WL MOV SEWD THRU THE CWA TGT. CDFNT SHOULD MOVR THRU UIN              
 ARND 03Z...COU 05-06Z...AND STL AND SUS FM 07-08Z. SFC WNDS WILL               
 VEER ARND TO A NWLY DIRECTION BHND CDFNT. RUC AND GFS MDLS FCST AT             
 LEAST A BAND OF POST FRONTAL STRATUS OR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS DVLPG             
 AND MOVG SEWD THRU THE CWA LTR TGT INTO SAT. GFS MDL TIME HGT                  
 SECTION OF RH FOR STL SHOW INCRSG MOISTURE BLW 850 MB THIS EVNG.               
 CLOUD CEILING SHOULD SLOWLY RISE ON SAT BASED ON GFS MOS CIG                   
 HEIGHT GUIDANCE AND RH TIME HGT PROFILE. NWLY SFC WNDS SHOULD BCM              
 RELATIVELY STG AND GUSTY BY SAT AFTN.                                          
 GKS                                                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 MO...NONE.                                                                     
 IL...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 WFO LSX                                                                        
</pre> mo                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                           
 615 AM CST THU JAN 25 2007                                                     
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 STRATUS CLOUDINESS ACRS THE CWA ATTM ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LARGE AREA            
 OF CLEARING OVR ERN IA AND NRN IL WHERE LOW SFC DWPTS HAVE ADVCTD              
 SWD INTO THE AREA BHND A WK CDFNT/SFC TROF.  RUC RH FCSTS INDICATE             
 THIS MAY BRING SOME CLEARING TO THE ERN PTN OF THE CWA THIS MRNG.              
 MUCH OF WRN MO HAS ALSO CLEARED OUT FM THE STRATUS DECK...ALTHOUGH             
 THERE IS STILL MOVE STRATUS CLOUD CVR OVR IA POISED TO DROP SEWD               
 INTO THE CWA PLUS SOME MID LVL CLOUDINESS OVR ERN NEBRASKA AND WRN             
 IA WHICH SHOULD MOVE SEWD THRU WRN MO THIS MRNG. ALTHOUGH THERE IS             
 PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AND COMPLEXITY IN THE CLOUD FCST TDA WILL                
 LIKELY FOLLOW MDL GUIDANCE WHICH INDICATES DCRSG LOW LVL RH TDA                
 AND DCRSG CLOUDINESS WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE EXPECTED THIS              
 AFTN. SHOULD BE PRETTY GOOD SUBSIDENCE THIS AFTN WITH RELATIVELY               
 STG SFC RDG BLDG SEWD INTO THE CWA. EVEN WITH SOME SUNSHINE LTR                
 TDA DO NOT SEE MUCH OF A DIURNAL RISE IN TEMPS WITH NAM MDL                    
 INDICATING STG 850 MB CAA DURING THE MRNG. MDLS SHOWING A                      
 RELATIVELY STG 850 MB TEMP GRADIENT ACRS THE CWA WITH -8 TO -10                
 DGRS C OVR THE NERN PTN OF THE CWA TO -2 TO -4 DGRS C OVR THE SWRN             
 PTN OF THE CWA AT 18Z THU. MAY GO A TAD ABV MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS TDA             
 THOUGH AS INITIAL MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE ALREADY TOO COOL. SHOULD              
 HAVE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OVR THE SERN PTN OF THE CWA TGT                  
 UNDERNEATH SFC RDG AXIS. SFC TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BCM NRLY STEADY OVR            
 THE NRN AND WRN PTN OF THE CWA LT TGT AS MDLS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM             
 INDICATES STG LOW LVL WAA OVR THE NRN PTN OF THE CWA LT TGT. SFC               
 WNDS WILL ALSO BCM SWLY OVR THE NRN AND WRN PTN OF THE CWA LT TGT ON           
 THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC RDG. FRI LOOKS TO BE QUITE WRM AS WLY 850 MB           
 WNDS BRING WRM AIR INTO THE CWA WITH MDL 850 MB TEMPS RANGING FM 3-4           
 DGRS C OVR THE SERN PTN OF THE CWA TO ARND 7 DGRS C OVR THE NWRN PTN           
 OF THE CWA AT 18Z FRI. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE PLENTY OF SOLAR                    
 INSOLATION. THIS WRM WX WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS MDLS BRING A             
 STG CDFNT SEWD THRU THE CWA FRI NGT. DO NOT SEE MUCH UPR LVL FRCG              
 FOR PCPN FRI NGT AND MOISTURE APRS SHALLOW BLW 850 MB. MAY INCLUDE A           
 LOW POP FOR LGT RAIN/SNOW FRI NGT WITH THE GFS MDL DEPICTING A VRY             
 LGT BAND OF PCPN ALNG AND JUST BHND CDFNT. LOOKING AT MDL FCST                 
 SOUNDINGS MAY BE JUST NON MEASUREABLE DRIZZLE/FREEZING FRIZZLE OR              
 FLURRIES JUST BHND CDFNT. A STG SRN STREAM VORT MAX MAY KEEP POST              
 FRONTAL PCPN GOING OVR THE SRN PTN OF THE CWA THRU SAT...ALTHOUGH IT           
 APRS THAT MOST OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN            
 S OF THE CWA. MAY ALSO BE FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS OVR THE NRN PTN             
 OF THE CWA ON SAT AFTN INTO SAT NGT AS NRN STREAM VORT MAX...SHEAR             
 AXIS MOVES SEWD INTO THE CWA. MORE SIGNIFICANT MAY BE MUCH COLDER              
 AIR DROPPING SWD THRU THE CWA SAT AND SAT NGT WITH THE GFS MDL                 
 BRINGING THE -16 DGR C 850 MB ISOTHERM DOWN TO STL BY 12Z SUN.                 
 GKS                                                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 FOR THE 12Z TAFS...MVFR CLOUD COVERAGE IS GOING TO BOUNCE AROUND               
 A BIT TODAY. THERE IS A 70 MILE WIDE BAND OF CLOUDS ALONG AND                  
 WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WINDS AT CLOUD LEVELS ARE FROM                  
 AROUND 340 DEGREES SO THERE IS A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD DRIFT OF                     
 THE CLEARING LINE. THIS PASSED QUINCY ABOUT 11Z AND SHOULD CLEAR               
 AT KSTL BY SUNRISE AND AT KSUS BY 14Z.  COLUMBIA IS IN A SUCKER                
 HOLE FOR ABOUT 3 HOURS BUT ANOTHER BATCH OF LOW CLOUDS IN NORTHERN             
 MISSOURI WILL PROBABLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST BACK INTO COLUMBIA.                     
 THE MODELS DO NOT BRING THIS BACK...THEY CLEAR SKIES AND MOVE ANY              
 CLOUDS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. THIS REMAINS TO BE SEEN.  THINGS               
 SHOULD EVENTUALLY BE FINE THOUGH AND LOOKING FOR CLEAR SKIES                   
 TONIGHT.                                                                       
 PEDIGO                                                                         
 &&                                                                             
 .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 MO...NONE.                                                                     
 IL...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 WFO LSX                                                                        
</pre> mo                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE                                           
 330 PM CST THU JAN 25 2007                                                     
 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. MAIN CHALLENGES INVOLVE              
 TIMING OF COLD FRONT TOMORROW AND ASSOCIATED EFFECT ON                         
 TEMPERATURES...AND POSSIBILITY OF A FEW FLURRIES ON SATURDAY.                  
 AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN COMBINATION WITH RUC UPPER AIR                
 ANALYSIS DATA SHOWS STRONG UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE                     
 ROCKIES...WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW DOWNSTREAM OVER THE PLAINS.                    
 MEANWHILE OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING             
 THROUGH THE CWA...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS. FOG ACROSS THE FAR                 
 NORTHEAST HAS BEEN SLOW TO ERODE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THE WESTERN             
 EDGE HAS FINALLY PUSHED OUT OF THE CWA. SUNSHINE ACROSS THE AREA               
 HAS HELPED TEMPS WARM GENERALLY INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S                
 DESPITE LIMITED MIXING.                                                        
 THE MAIN QUESTION FOR TONIGHT IS WHETHER ANY FOG WILL BE ABLE TO               
 REDEVELOP. MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH THE ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL RH                   
 VALUES EAST AWAY FROM THE CWA...SUGGESTING IT WILL NOT. DESPITE                
 THIS...BELIEVE WE MAY SEE AT LEAST SOME PATCHY DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE          
 EAST. SURFACE WINDS TURN INCREASINGLY SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE                    
 NIGHT. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE SLOW TO TAKE ON THE WESTERLY COMPONENT              
 ACROSS THE EAST AND WITH LINGERING FOG JUST TO OUR                             
 EAST/NORTHEAST...BELIEVE IT COULD SNEAK BACK INTO EASTERN AREAS                
 THIS EVENING. IF FOG DOES INDEED FORM...IT MAY VERY WELL                       
 DISSIPATE/PUSH EAST ONCE THE SOUTHWEST WINDS TAKE HOLD LATER                   
 TONIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION ON SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP MIN                   
 TEMPS TONIGHT ON THE MILD SIDE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.                      
 AN UPPER LOW DIVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA STARTS TO KNOCK               
 THE UPPER RIDGE DOWN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...AND SENDS A COLD                  
 FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL MAKE              
 IT INTO THE NORTHWEST CWA BY 18Z AND THEN PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE                
 REST OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS ON PACE TO                 
 ARRIVE LATE ENOUGH THAT WE SHOULD SEE ONE MORE MILD DAY WITH HIGHS             
 IN THE 40S. A FAIRLY WARM START TO THE DAY...ENHANCED MIXING...AND             
 PLENTY OF INSOLATION WILL ALL ACT IN FAVOR OF THE WARMING. THE                 
 FRONT WILL BE SEVERELY MOISTURE STARVED...AND HENCE NO                         
 PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH ITS PASSAGE. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND          
 THE FRONT WILL KNOCK TEMPS BACK INTO THE TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT.                   
 STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ON SATURDAY WITH H85 TEMPS                 
 FALLING TO AROUND -15C. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS ROUGHLY 15               
 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN THOSE EXPECTED TOMORROW. PRECIP CHANCES              
 LOOK VERY MINIMAL WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT DID INCLUDE FLURRIES                  
 ACROSS THE EAST/NORTHEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST             
 SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A LITTLE THICKER STRATUS DECK                
 ACROSS THE EAST...AND THIS DECK WILL BE IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER                 
 GIVEN THE COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE. AS THE TAIL END OF THE UPPER WAVE             
 SWINGS ACROSS THIS PART OF THE CWA...IT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING             
 TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW FLURRIES. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE COLD               
 AS A 1030+ MB SURFACE HIGH SLIPS SOUTH INTO THE REGION...WITH                  
 LOWS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.                     
 .LONG TERM...12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MAIN PROBLEM SURROUNDS               
 ARCTIC AIR SURGES.                                                             
 MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT MUCH OF THE                  
 EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED WITH ARCTIC AIR.  THE                        
 PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE ALREADY ON SUNDAY.  SOME            
 MODIFICATION TO THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR TRIES TO TAKE PLACE SUNDAY              
 NIGHT...HOWEVER THE NEXT REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES AGAIN            
 ON MONDAY AS A WAVE DIVES SOUTH IN THE UPPER FLOW.  THIS GENERAL               
 SCENARIO OCCURS AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  THE BOTTOM LINE           
 IS MUCH OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL WITH RESPECT TO                    
 TEMPERATURES.  HAVE CUT NUMERICAL GUIDANCE VALUES THROUGH MOST OF              
 THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.                                                  
 PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOK RATHER MEAGER WITH               
 LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL/UPPER WAVE PASSAGES.              
 THE ONLY PERIOD THAT IS MORE QUESTIONABLE APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY              
 SINCE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE...AND THE UPPER LEVEL              
 SUPPORT IS A BIT STRONGER TOO.  HPC GUIDANCE POPS ARE NEAR 30                  
 PERCENT...AND AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...DECIDED           
 TO CUT THOSE BY 10 PERCENT INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.                    
 &&                                                                             
 .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NE...NONE.                                                                     
 KS...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 KB/CK                                                                          
</pre> ne                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV                                               
 217 AM PST THU JAN 25 2007                                                     
 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OVER THE NEXT                 
 COUPLE DAYS...ALLOWING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO CREEP NORTHWARD                  
 THROUGH THE STATE. BY THE WEEKEND...COLDER AIR WILL SPILL IN FROM THE          
 NORTH PUTTING AN END TO THE SHORT-LIVED WARMING TREND. CONDITIONS              
 WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. &&                            
 .SHORT TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING              
 WITH IR IMAGERY SHOWING STRONG RIDGING OVER WEST...CENTERED OVER NV.           
 MOST MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH LOCATION AND INITIAL JOG EAST OF UPPER           
 LOW CIRCULATING OFF CA COAST THIS MORNING. ECMWF AND RUC MODELS                
 SEEM TO NUDGE THE LOW TOO FAR EAST INITIALLY BASED ON CURRENT                  
 POSITION. GENERAL PATTERN AGREEMENT BETWEEN NAM/GFS ONLY HOLDS                 
 THROUGH FRIDAY. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER CWA TODAY WILL                
 INDUCE ELEVATED TEMPERATURES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN BUT WITH LITTLE               
 MIXING...SOME OF THE LOWER ELEVATION COLD SPOTS WILL REMAIN NEAR               
 THE FREEZING MARK IN THE AFTERNOON. PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEVADA WILL            
 APPROACH 60 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFYING RIDGE WILL            
 KEEP A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW ALOFT OVER CENTRAL NV ON                
 FRIDAY BUT COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN INTRUSION OVER NORTHERN NV. FOR               
 VALLEYS OF NORTHEAST NEVADA WITH STRONG SURFACE INVERSION AND SNOW             
 COVER...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 30S.                
 MODELS HAVE BEEN HAVING DIFFICULT TIME BALANCING ENERGY OF UPPER LOW           
 PRESENTLY OFF WEST COAST. MODEL TO MODEL RUN DIFFERS SIGNIFICANTLY             
 BUT IT IS MOST CERTAIN THAT SATURDAY WILL BE CONTINUED DRY AS                  
 TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUE TO COOL AND NORTHWEST FLOW ENSUES. LW                     
 .LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS ALL MAINTAIN            
 A REX BLOCK PATTERN ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGH MONDAY BUT DIFFER             
 SOMEWHAT ON THE EVOLUTION OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OR OMEGA BLOCK             
 THAT DEVELOPS AROUND 130W BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE                 
 CANADIAN AND ECMWF OPEN UP THE UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING WEST           
 OF NOCAL...AND TAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. BY TUESDAY WHILE THE            
 GFS HAS THE LOW RETROGRADING NORTHWESTWARD AND DISSIPATING WEST OF             
 BRITISH COLUMBIA TUESDAY. BOTH SOLUTIONS STILL RESULT IN AN OMEGA              
 BLOCK/HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE DEVELOPING ALONG 130W BY THE MIDDLE OF              
 NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR SHORTWAVE ENERGY...SPILLING             
 SOUTHWARD OUT OF WESTERN CANADA...TO BRING A STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW             
 BACK TO THE CWA. WITH UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE VICINITY             
 OF THE NOCAL COAST THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY....SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH               
 COOL AIR ALOFT TO HELP MAINTAIN WEAKER VALLEY INVERSIONS ALLOWING              
 FOR MID-30S IN THE SNOW COVERED AREAS WITH MOSTLY 40S ELSEWHERE.               
 MODELS SHOWING GOOD CAA PUSHING INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV LATE              
 NEXT WEDNESDAY...SO STARTED TRENDING TEMPS DOWN AGAIN. GFS SHOWING             
 SOME LIGHT QPF ENTERING THE CWA AS WELL BUT NOT QUITE READY TO JUMP            
 ON BOARD WITH THAT JUST YET. MCGEE                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...TAFS AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY DESCRIBE EXPECTED VFR                    
 CONDITIONS.                                                                    
 &&                                                                             
 .LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                       
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> nv                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                         
 746 PM EST FRI JAN 26 2007                                                     
 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...                                               
 MAY DO ANOTHER UPDATE PRIOR TO SHIFT CHANGE. FOR NOW WE HAVE A BIG             
 UPDATE TO TEMPS FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF REGION, AS AREA FROM                   
 NORTHERN ONEIDA SOUTH TOWARD OTSEGO IS AT OR BELOW ZERO. WE USED               
 RUC TEMPS, MODIFIED BY CURRENT MESO OBS, AS A BEST GUESS AT TREND.             
 ALSO TWEAKED TIMING OF PRECIP WHICH HAS ARRIVED SOONER THAN                    
 ANTICIPATED IN THE FINGER LAKES.  DJP                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 /ISSUED 655 PM EST FRI JAN 26 2007/                                            
 AVIATION /00Z-24Z/...                                                          
 A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH                   
 MOST OF THE TERMINALS WITH A PERIOD OF IFR VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS                 
 TONIGHT. SHORT RANGE COMPUTER MODELS APPEAR TO BE SLOW WITH THE                
 ONSET OF PRECIP SO HAVE MADE THE APPROPRIATE ADJUSTMENTS...AND                 
 EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO REACH ELM-ITH 02Z-04Z. THERE IS SOME                  
 DRIER AIR TO THE EAST HALF OF NY...SO THE SPREAD NE THRU BGM-SYR-              
 RME WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER FROM 05Z-08Z. AVP ON THE FRINGE...BUT              
 SHOULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AFT 06Z. LOOKING             
 AHEAD...LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE UPPER LAKES LATE TONIGHT              
 AND SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE AREA. MODEL              
 SOLUTIONS HAVE PRECIP CONTINUING WITHIN THE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF               
 THE LOW...WHICH COULD BE -SN OR -FZDZ. CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW IS                 
 LOW TO INCLUDE EITHER OF THESE IN THIS FCST. FEEL CIGS/VSBYS WILL              
 BE IN MVFR CATEGORY ANYWAY REGARDLESS OF PCPN...SO WILL JUST                   
 MONITOR THE POSSIBILITIES AND INCLUDE WITH LATER FCSTS IF NEEDED. WARM         
 FRONT PASSES AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT LLVL MOISTURE REMAINS...SO          
 WILL CONTINUE AS MVFR.                                                         
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 331 PM EST FRI JAN 26 2007/                                            
 SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...                                   
 VIS IMAGERY SHOWS SHALLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS AND CLDS FROM NW-SE           
 ACRS CWA AS MID-HI CLDS FROM NEXT WAVE OVERSPREAD WRN NY/AND MUCH OF           
 WRN AND SRN PA. THIS NEXT WAVE WAS LEADG TO A WAA SUPPORTED SHIELD             
 OF SNOWS WHICH ARE PROJECTED TO DRY UP SOME AS IT TRACKS E TONIGHT.            
 ACC/S WILL BE LESS THAN ONE INCH AS THE SYSTEM REALLY LACKS                    
 MOISTURE. AFTER THE DEEPER WAA PASSES E...THERE IS STILL SHALLOW               
 MOISTURE LEFT OVER AFTER MAIN SNOWS AND WAA PASS E AND DIMINISH                
 LATER TONIGHT. SEE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE PATCHY FZDZ FOR A FEW                
 HOURS AFTER MAIN SHIELD OF LIGHT SNOWS DRY UP AS IT WORKS E LATER              
 TONIGHT.                                                                       
 FOR SAT...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLDY WITH A LL MOISTURE FEED ACRS MOST             
 OF CWA AND LEAD TO LIGHT SNOWS AND FLURRIES MUCH OF THE DAY. NOT               
 MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACC/S EXPECTED.                                             
 CLIPPER DROPS THRU FA SAT EVENING WITH FRONT DRAPED ACROSS UPSTATE             
 NY BACK THRU LK MI. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING.             
 BOTH GFS AND WRF ADVERTISE WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT SUN                 
 NIGHT TO HELP PULL IT THRU.                                                    
 THIS PORTION OF SHORT TERM STILL UP IN THE AIR IN REGARD TO WHEN               
 BEST PCPN CHCS WILL BE. ONCE FNT PASSES...LAKE EFFECT POSSIBLE                 
 THRU END OF THE SHORT TERM...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT                
 ACROSS FAVORED AREAS AFTER DEEP H5 TROF PASSES EAST. TEMPS WILL                
 CONTINUE TO RUN SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL AS TROF REMAINS OVER NORTHEAST             
 AND HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS OVER WEST COAST.                               
 LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                          
 COLD PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS OFF THE                
 LAKES AND AN OCCASIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCE OR REINFORCING COLD WAVE              
 MOVING THROUGH. ON TUESDAY...WEAK LOW PRES AREA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE           
 LAKES AND NEW YORK BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES.             
 HIGH PRES CENTER WILL PASS ACROSS PA ON WED WITH WLY WINDS OFF THE             
 LAKES. ANOTHER LOW PRES AREA MOVES ACROSS THE LAKES INTO SE CANADA             
 THU BRINGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH NY AND PA THU NIGHT WITH               
 SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.                                                         
 AVIATION /18Z-18Z/...                                                          
 SMALL LES BANDS STILL AFFECTG BGM AND ITH. THE ACVTY WAS VERY                  
 SHALLOW AND NOT SHOWG UP WELL ON RADARS EXCEPT IN REAL CLOSE. CLDS             
 WERE ALSO THIN AND NOT SHWG UP WELL ON SATL. TEMPS IN THE SFC LYR              
 WERE CLOSE TO -12C SO NOT TAKING MUCH TO PRODUCE IFR/LIFR SHSN.                
 THIS ACVTY WILL WIND DOWN SOON AS INV DROPS FROM SUBSDC AND WINDS              
 BACK MORE W-SW AS NEXT WAVE APPRCHES.                                          
 NEXT WAVE WAS TRACKING EWRD INTO THE ERN LAKES AND WILL SPREAD                 
 MID-HI CLDS OVHD TONIGHT BUT STILL VFR UNTIL LATE...BTWN 6 AND 9Z              
 WHEN SOME LIGHT PRECIP ARRIVES FROM WAA SHIELD. SEE MAINLY MVFR IN             
 LIGHT SNOWS AND CIGS UNTIL THE WAA SHIELD LIFTS TO THE NE BY ARND              
 15Z. THEN A MOIST SWRLY FLOW ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE WARM FRNT                 
 WILL INCREASE LL DWPTS AND WITH REALLY COLD TEMPS HANGING ON NR                
 THE SFC...SEE IFR CONDITIONS DVLPG 15-18Z MOST TAF SITES IN CIGS               
 AND VSBYS. NY/NE PA WILL BASICALLY BE SIMILAR TO WHAT IS HAPPENING             
 IN WI PRESENTLY 24 HOURS FROM NOW.                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NY...NONE.                                                                     
 PA...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SHORT TERM...DJP                                                               
</pre> ny                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                        
 915 PM CST FRI JAN 26 2007                                                     
 .UPDATE...VERY LIGHT BUT MOSTLY MEASURABLE SNOW HAS TARGETED                   
 THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING AS A LITTLE SHORTWAVE               
 MOVED SOUTHEAST. BUT A BIT OF A BREAK APPEARS TO BE IN ORDER                   
 BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ARCTIC FRONT ENTERS THE U.S...WHICH              
 CURRENTLY IS JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER. MODELS SHOW IMPRESSIVE                  
 COLD ADVECTION AT 900 MB NEAR AND JUST BEHIND THIS FRONT AND                   
 OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOLLOWING.                 
 ACCEPTED THE RUC DEPICTION OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WHICH               
 INCREASED THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT MOVING SOUTH...BUT END RESULT               
 IS NEARLY THE SAME BY MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW IS                  
 FOLLOWING THE FRONT IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND WILL KEEP CHANCE                  
 PROBABILITY IN GRIDS SINCE MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVING SNOW WILL                  
 NOT MEASURE MORE THAN A TRACE.                                                 
 &&                                                                             
 .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 ND...NONE.                                                                     
 MN...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 GV                                                                             
</pre> nd                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND                             
 930 AM CST FRI JAN 26 2007                                                     
 SURFACE PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND INTITIAL SHOT OF COLD ADVECTION ABOUT            
 THROUGH FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS REGION AND UPSTREAM                 
 REMAIN MILD WITH SECONDARY COLD FRONT STILL ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN            
 CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. SO WHILE COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES TODAY            
 STRONGER BAROCLINIC ZONE DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE                            
 AFTERNOON/EVENING. DEEPER LAYERED RH AND ASSOCIATED LOWER CIGS/-SN             
 TIMED TO ARRIVE AT INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA AROUND 18Z SPREADING              
 ACROSS NORTHERN FA REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON. OVERALL LACK OF DEEP SNOW           
 PACK AND SOLAR SHOULD PARTIALLY OFFSET COLD ADVECTION ALLOWING                 
 SOUTHERN AREAS TO SEE MODEST TEMPERATURE RECOVERY. FARTHER NORTH               
 EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO HOLD FAIRLY STEADY. CURRENT TEMPERATURE                 
 SCHEME REFLECTS ABOVE SO ONLY PLANNING MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. WILL ALSO            
 MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO ANTICIPATED AFTERNOON ARRIVAL OF CIGS AND PCPN             
 POTENTIAL BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS. INCREASING              
 WIND STILL LOOKS ON TRACK HOWEVER STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES TO OUR              
 WEST AND BASED ON RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO HOIST            
 ANY WIND HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.                                               
 &&                                                                             
 .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 ND...NONE.                                                                     
 MN...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 VOELKER                                                                        
</pre> nd                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                             
 748 PM CST FRI JAN 26 2007                                                     
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PACKAGE THIS EVENING TO DELAY               
 ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. CUT DOWN THE COVERAGE OF POPS BEFORE                   
 MIDNIGHT AS THE RADAR ECHOES CLOSE TO THE AREA ARE MAINLY VIRGA                
 AND THERE IS A BIT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR TO MOISTEN BEFORE PRECIP               
 CHANCES INCREASE TOO MUCH. OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK             
 WITH THE COLD FRONT IN KANSAS AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE READY TO              
 MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE AREA IN A FEW HOURS.  .26.               
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 PM CST FRI JAN 26 2007/                       
 DISCUSSION...                                                                  
 TWO POINTS OF EMPHASIS WITH THIS PARTICULAR FORECAST PACKAGE. THE              
 FIRST POINT IS WITH THE SMALL BUT VIGOROUS UPPER LOW NEAR EL PASO.             
 RUC/GFS MODEL INITIALIZATIONS ARE BEST WITH THE NAM TOO FAR                    
 SOUTHWEST. THIS APPROACH HAS THE LOW REACHING THE CENTRAL TEXAS                
 PANHANDLE BY 06 SAT...HOBART BY 12Z...THEN MCALESTER BY 18Z. THE LOW           
 IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT               
 STILL EXPECT RATHER STRONG DYNAMICS NEAR AND JUST AHEAD OF ITS PATH.           
 MOISTURE IS RATHER BLEAK AT THE MOMENT BUT VISIBILE SATELLITE                  
 IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWS LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING OVER SOUTH             
 TEXAS WHICH THE MODELS PICK UP ON AND BRING TO NEAR THE RED RIVER              
 OVERNIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA           
 LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AND INTRODUCED ISOLATED THUNDER DUE TO             
 STEEPENING 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES. SNOW CHANCES SEEM LOW AT BEST AS            
 HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE REPLACED WITH NEAR             
 FREEZING TEMPERATURES JUST AS THE LOW EXITS THE REGION. CAN NOT                
 COMPLETELY RULE OUT SNOW...BUT HAVE LIMITED ITS EXTENT TO NORTHEN              
 AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES OF THE LOW`S INFLUENCE.                                
 AFTER THE LOW LEAVES THE REGION MIDDAY SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT                 
 ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHERN LATITUDES SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES WITH              
 THE FIRST OF MANY SURGES OF COLDER AIR THAT ARE FORECAST THROUGH               
 NEXT WEEK. OTHER THAN ADJUSTING TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES SOME           
 DAYS NEXT WEEK...CONSISTENT WITH DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL AVERAGING              
 ABOUT 10 DEGREES...IT IS DIFFICULT TO ARGUE FOR MAJOR CHANGES. MODEL           
 CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT PERIODIC INTRUSIONS OF CANADIAN                 
 AIRMASSES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES TO               
 UNDERCUT A WEST COAST RIDGE AND AFFECT THE AREA. THE MAIN CONCERN              
 HOWEVER IS THAT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE INCORPORATED               
 INTO NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND EAST COAST STORMS WITH OUR AIRMASS            
 LIKELY REMAINING QUITE DRY. BELIEVE THE GFS IS HAS OVERDONE QPF/SNOW           
 AMOUNTS FOR OUR AREA NEXT WEEK...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT LIGHTER                  
 AMOUNTS WITH ONE OR MORE OF THESE DISTURBANCES.                                
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 OKLAHOMA CITY OK  34  40  23  39 /  40  30  10  10                             
 HOBART OK         32  40  22  41 /  30  20  10  10                             
 WICHITA FALLS TX  39  43  26  41 /  40  30  10  10                             
 GAGE OK           28  37  19  38 /  20  10  10  10                             
 PONCA CITY OK     30  38  18  36 /  30  20  10   0                             
 DURANT OK         44  48  27  40 /  50  50  10   0                             
 &&                                                                             
 .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 OK...NONE.                                                                     
 TX...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> ok                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                             
 1252 PM CST FRI JAN 26 2007                                                    
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 TWO POINTS OF EMPHASIS WITH THIS PARTICULAR FORECAST PACKAGE. THE              
 FIRST POINT IS WITH THE SMALL BUT VIGOROUS UPPER LOW NEAR EL PASO.             
 RUC/GFS MODEL INITIALIZATIONS ARE BEST WITH THE NAM TOO FAR                    
 SOUTHWEST. THIS APPROACH HAS THE LOW REACHING THE CENTRAL TEXAS                
 PANHANDLE BY 06 SAT...HOBART BY 12Z...THEN MCALESTER BY 18Z. THE LOW           
 IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT               
 STILL EXPECT RATHER STRONG DYNAMICS NEAR AND JUST AHEAD OF ITS PATH.           
 MOISTURE IS RATHER BLEAK AT THE MOMENT BUT VISIBILE SATELLITE                  
 IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWS LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING OVER SOUTH             
 TEXAS WHICH THE MODELS PICK UP ON AND BRING TO NEAR THE RED RIVER              
 OVERNIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA           
 LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AND INTRODUCED ISOLATED THUNDER DUE TO             
 STEEPENING 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES. SNOW CHANCES SEEM LOW AT BEST AS            
 HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE REPLACED WITH NEAR             
 FREEZING TEMPERATURES JUST AS THE LOW EXITS THE REGION. CAN NOT                
 COMPLETELY RULE OUT SNOW...BUT HAVE LIMITED ITS EXTENT TO NORTHEN              
 AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES OF THE LOW`S INFLUENCE.                                
 AFTER THE LOW LEAVES THE REGION MIDDAY SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT                 
 ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHERN LATITUDES SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES WITH              
 THE FIRST OF MANY SURGES OF COLDER AIR THAT ARE FORECAST THROUGH               
 NEXT WEEK. OTHER THAN ADJUSTING TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES SOME           
 DAYS NEXT WEEK...CONSISTENT WITH DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL AVERAGING              
 ABOUT 10 DEGREES...IT IS DIFFICULT TO ARGUE FOR MAJOR CHANGES. MODEL           
 CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT PERIODIC INTRUSIONS OF CANADIAN                 
 AIRMASSES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES TO               
 UNDERCUT A WEST COAST RIDGE AND AFFECT THE AREA. THE MAIN CONCERN              
 HOWEVER IS THAT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE INCORPORATED               
 INTO NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND EAST COAST STORMS WITH OUR AIRMASS            
 LIKELY REMAINING QUITE DRY. BELIEVE THE GFS IS HAS OVERDONE QPF/SNOW           
 AMOUNTS FOR OUR AREA NEXT WEEK...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT LIGHTER                  
 AMOUNTS WITH ONE OR MORE OF THESE DISTURBANCES.                                
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 OKLAHOMA CITY OK  34  40  23  39 /  40  30  10  10                             
 HOBART OK         32  40  22  41 /  30  20  10  10                             
 WICHITA FALLS TX  39  43  26  41 /  40  30  10  10                             
 GAGE OK           28  37  19  38 /  20  10  10  10                             
 PONCA CITY OK     30  38  18  36 /  30  20  10   0                             
 DURANT OK         44  48  27  40 /  50  50  10   0                             
 .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 OK...NONE.                                                                     
 TX...NONE.                                                                     
 $$                                                                             
 JAMES                                                                          
</pre> ok                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                             
 1035 AM EST THU JAN 25 2007                                                    
 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                 
 AS UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO MTNS SNOW IS INCREASING OVER THE TN              
 BORDER COUNTIES...MAINLY IN THE WARNED AREA...FROM MADISON UP TO               
 AVERY COUNTY...WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE IS EXPECTED. WINDS ARE ALSO             
 INCREASING FROM THE NW AND BECOMING GUSTY ACROSS THE MTNS. HAVE                
 TWEAKED THE HOURLY TEMPS/DEW POINTS/RH AND WINDS WITH LATEST                   
 GUIDANCE. NO CHANGE TO WARNING/ADVISORY AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.              
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 /ISSUED 448 AM EST THU JAN 25 2007/                                            
 ..CORRECTED TO ADD LAKE WIND ADVISORY...                                       
 SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                          
 LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW UPSLOPE CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS THE           
 NC MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. INCREASING NW FLOW...PASSING VORT                   
 MAX...AND IDEAL CRYSTAL GROWTH TEMPERATURES SHOULD SUPPORT ISO TO              
 SCT SHSN THIS MORNING ACROSS THE TN BORDER AREAS. A WEB CAM NEAR               
 BANNER ELK SHOWS A FEW FLURRIES CURRENTLY FALLING.                             
 SNOW FALL RATES SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS MORNING AS CAA                  
 CONTINUES AND WIND SPEEDS INCREASE. RUC40 AND W/V IMAGES INDICATES A           
 W/V NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AT THIS TIME...WHICH IS A LITTLE WEST OF THE            
 0Z GFS. THE VORT SHOULD PASS JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS              
 THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE VORT PASSES...CAA WILL MAKE THE GREATEST                
 SURGE AND LLVL EPV BECOMES MORE DEFINED. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN                 
 SEVERAL BANDS OF SHSN TO PASS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA BETWEEN            
 18-0Z. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A 3-6 HR WINDOW                   
 DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE MOISTURE PROFILES AND DENDRITIC GROWTH           
 ZONES LOOK FAVORABLE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. AFTER 0Z...NW FLOW             
 WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN...APPROACHING 50 KTS AT H85 AFTER 3Z.                
 THESE WINDS SHOULD COMBINE WITH THE REMAINING SHALLOW MOISTURE TO              
 PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. BY           
 FRIDAY MORNING...THE AREA FROM AVERY TO MADISON COUNTIES SHOULD SEE            
 SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL...AVERAGING 3 INCHES AND UP TO 5 INCHES             
 POSSIBLE IN SPOTS. BLOWING SNOW AND WIND CHILLS AT OR BELOW ZERO               
 SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 6Z FRI. THE LATEST              
 FORECAST AGREES WELL WITH THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING AND                 
 ADVISORIES. IN ADDITION...AREAS ADJACENT TO THE CURRENT HIGHLIGHTED            
 AREA MAY SEE WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.             
 EAST OF THE MTNS...TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY AND GUSTY.                
 CIRRUS SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS                              
 AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN A PARTLY SUNNY SKY. TEMPERATURES WILL                 
 REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS STRONG CAA ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON AND SLIDES            
 OVER THE ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE COLD...WITH TEENS            
 NORTH AND L20S SOUTH.                                                          
 LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                        
 COULD BE SOME BLOWING SNOW REMAINING FRIDAY MORNING WITH BREEZY                
 CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT SNOW SHOWERS END AS LOW LEVEL            
 MOISTURE DRIES UP. WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS PRESSURE                  
 GRADIENT RELAXES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. DRY WEATHER            
 WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.                               
 HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES RISE DRAMATICALLY SATURDAY AS POLAR VORTEX             
 PULLS EAST AND FLAT RIDGING DEVELOPS AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LOW            
 EJECTING EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE ABOVE                
 NORMAL HIGHS...BUT DID TREND TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE. MODELS                
 COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF THE EJECTING SW LOW...              
 BUT NAM SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER THAN OTHERS. THAT SAID...21Z SREF IS              
 LENDING SOME CREDENCE TO THE SLOWER SOLUTION. THE SREF ALSO                    
 INDICATES LIGHT PRECIP LIKELY FOR THE CWFA SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW             
 BROUGHT SOME CHC POP INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS AND NE GA...AND SLIGHT              
 CHC EAST OF THERE. GFS IS COLDER THAN THE NAM INDICATING P-TYPE                
 WOULD BE ALL SNOW FOR THE NC MTNS. USING A MODEL BLEND...PRODUCES A            
 RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW P-TYPE. THEREFORE HAVE RAIN OR SNOW MENTIONED            
 THERE WITH RAIN TO THE SOUTH. ANY PRECIP PRODUCED BY THE GULF LOW              
 ENDS SUNDAY MORNING WITH A SIMILAR P-TYPE BREAK UP. NW FLOW SNOW               
 SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A BREAK IN THE PRECIP                
 MONDAY...THEN A CLIPPER SYSTEM AND NORTHWEST FLOW BRING THE                    
 POSSIBILITY OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT                
 THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHC POP. DRY                   
 FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES A LITTLE             
 BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY RETURNING TO BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH                   
 WEDNESDAY.                                                                     
 AVIATION /10Z-06Z/...                                                          
 THE PERSISTENT BKN TO OVC CIRRUS THAT AS REMAINED OVER THE WESTERN             
 CAROLINAS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL COME TO AN END THIS                  
 AFTERNOON. THE THINNING CIRRUS WILL RESULT IN FEW TO SCT SKY COVER             
 EAST OF THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...THE MTNS WILL           
 SEE WIDESPREAD CAA AND NW FLOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING...AND            
 PEAKING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ARRIVAL OF THE CAA WILL                
 RESULT A 5 TO 6 KFT THICK MIXING LAYER AFTER NOON. MOMENTUM TRANSFER           
 WITHIN THE MIXING LAYER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN GUSTY CONDITIONS AFTER           
 15-18Z. THE WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE GREATEST AT KAVL...WITH FREQUENT            
 GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.                
 &&                                                                             
 .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR GAZ010-017.                  
 NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ033-048>050.            
      WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ051>053-             
      058-059-062.                                                              
      WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ063>065-501-503-505-           
      507-509.                                                                  
 SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ001>003.                  
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SHORT TERM...RB                                                                
</pre> sc                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                             
 448 AM EST THU JAN 25 2007                                                     
 ...CORRECTED TO ADD LAKE WIND ADVISORY...                                      
 .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                         
 LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW UPSLOPE CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS THE           
 NC MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. INCREASING NW FLOW...PASSING VORT                   
 MAX...AND IDEAL CRYSTAL GROWTH TEMPERATURES SHOULD SUPPORT ISO TO              
 SCT SHSN THIS MORNING ACROSS THE TN BORDER AREAS. A WEB CAM NEAR               
 BANNER ELK SHOWS A FEW FLURRIES CURRENTLY FALLING.                             
 SNOW FALL RATES SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS MORNING AS CAA                  
 CONTINUES AND WIND SPEEDS INCREASE. RUC40 AND W/V IMAGES INDICATES A           
 W/V NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AT THIS TIME...WHICH IS A LITTLE WEST OF THE            
 0Z GFS. THE VORT SHOULD PASS JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS              
 THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE VORT PASSES...CAA WILL MAKE THE GREATEST                
 SURGE AND LLVL EPV BECOMES MORE DEFINED. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN                 
 SEVERAL BANDS OF SHSN TO PASS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA BETWEEN            
 18-0Z. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A 3-6 HR WINDOW                   
 DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE MOISTURE PROFILES AND DENDRITIC GROWTH           
 ZONES LOOK FAVORABLE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. AFTER 0Z...NW FLOW             
 WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN...APPROACHING 50 KTS AT H85 AFTER 3Z.                
 THESE WINDS SHOULD COMBINE WITH THE REMAINING SHALLOW MOISTURE TO              
 PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. BY           
 FRIDAY MORNING...THE AREA FROM AVERY TO MADISON COUNTIES SHOULD SEE            
 SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL...AVERAGING 3 INCHES AND UP TO 5 INCHES             
 POSSIBLE IN SPOTS. BLOWING SNOW AND WIND CHILLS AT OR BELOW ZERO               
 SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 6Z FRI. THE LATEST              
 FORECAST AGREES WELL WITH THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING AND                 
 ADVISORIES. IN ADDITION...AREAS ADJACENT TO THE CURRENT HIGHLIGHTED            
 AREA MAY SEE WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.             
 EAST OF THE MTNS...TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY AND GUSTY.                
 CIRRUS SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS                              
 AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN A PARTLY SUNNY SKY. TEMPERATURES WILL                 
 REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS STRONG CAA ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON AND SLIDES            
 OVER THE ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE COLD...WITH TEENS            
 NORTH AND L20S SOUTH.                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                       
 COULD BE SOME BLOWING SNOW REMAINING FRIDAY MORNING WITH BREEZY                
 CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT SNOW SHOWERS END AS LOW LEVEL            
 MOISTURE DRIES UP. WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS PRESSURE                  
 GRADIENT RELAXES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. DRY WEATHER            
 WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.                               
 HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES RISE DRAMATICALLY SATURDAY AS POLAR VORTEX             
 PULLS EAST AND FLAT RIDGING DEVELOPS AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LOW            
 EJECTING EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE ABOVE                
 NORMAL HIGHS...BUT DID TREND TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE. MODELS                
 COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF THE EJECTING SW LOW...              
 BUT NAM SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER THAN OTHERS. THAT SAID...21Z SREF IS              
 LENDING SOME CREDENCE TO THE SLOWER SOLUTION. THE SREF ALSO                    
 INDICATES LIGHT PRECIP LIKELY FOR THE CWFA SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW             
 BROUGHT SOME CHC POP INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS AND NE GA...AND SLIGHT              
 CHC EAST OF THERE. GFS IS COLDER THAN THE NAM INDICATING P-TYPE                
 WOULD BE ALL SNOW FOR THE NC MTNS. USING A MODEL BLEND...PRODUCES A            
 RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW P-TYPE. THEREFORE HAVE RAIN OR SNOW MENTIONED            
 THERE WITH RAIN TO THE SOUTH. ANY PRECIP PRODUCED BY THE GULF LOW              
 ENDS SUNDAY MORNING WITH A SIMILAR P-TYPE BREAK UP. NW FLOW SNOW               
 SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A BREAK IN THE PRECIP                
 MONDAY...THEN A CLIPPER SYSTEM AND NORTHWEST FLOW BRING THE                    
 POSSIBILITY OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT                
 THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHC POP. DRY                   
 FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES A LITTLE             
 BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY RETURNING TO BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH                   
 WEDNESDAY.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION /10Z-06Z/...                                                         
 THE PERSISTENT BKN TO OVC CIRRUS THAT AS REMAINED OVER THE WESTERN             
 CAROLINAS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL COME TO AN END THIS                  
 AFTERNOON. THE THINNING CIRRUS WILL RESULT IN FEW TO SCT SKY COVER             
 EAST OF THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...THE MTNS WILL           
 SEE WIDESPREAD CAA AND NW FLOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING...AND            
 PEAKING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ARRIVAL OF THE CAA WILL                
 RESULT A 5 TO 6 KFT THICK MIXING LAYER AFTER NOON. MOMENTUM TRANSFER           
 WITHIN THE MIXING LAYER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN GUSTY CONDITIONS AFTER           
 15-18Z. THE WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE GREATEST AT KAVL...WITH FREQUENT            
 GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.                
 &&                                                                             
 .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR                 
      GAZ010-017.                                                               
 NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ033-048>050.            
      WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ051>053-             
      058-059-062.                                                              
      WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR                      
      NCZ063>065-501-503-505-507-509.                                           
 SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR                 
      SCZ001>003.                                                               
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SHORT TERM...NED                                                               
 LONG TERM...RWH                                                                
 AVIATION...NED                                                                 
</pre> sc                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                             
 410 AM EST THU JAN 25 2007                                                     
 .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                         
 LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW UPSLOPE CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS THE           
 NC MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. INCREASING NW FLOW...PASSING VORT                   
 MAX...AND IDEAL CRYSTAL GROWTH TEMPERATURES SHOULD SUPPORT ISO TO              
 SCT SHSN THIS MORNING ACROSS THE TN BORDER AREAS. A WEB CAM NEAR               
 BANNER ELK SHOWS A FEW FLURRIES CURRENTLY FALLING.                             
 SNOW FALL RATES SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS MORNING AS CAA                  
 CONTINUES AND WIND SPEEDS INCREASE. RUC40 AND W/V IMAGES INDICATES A           
 W/V NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AT THIS TIME...WHICH IS A LITTLE WEST OF THE            
 0Z GFS. THE VORT SHOULD PASS JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS              
 THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE VORT PASSES...CAA WILL MAKE THE GREATEST                
 SURGE AND LLVL EPV BECOMES MORE DEFINED. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN                 
 SEVERAL BANDS OF SHSN TO PASS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA BETWEEN            
 18-0Z. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A 3-6 HR WINDOW                   
 DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE MOISTURE PROFILES AND DENDRITIC GROWTH           
 ZONES LOOK FAVORABLE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. AFTER 0Z...NW FLOW             
 WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN...APPROACHING 50 KTS AT H85 AFTER 3Z.                
 THESE WINDS SHOULD COMBINE WITH THE REMAINING SHALLOW MOISTURE TO              
 PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. BY           
 FRIDAY MORNING...THE AREA FROM AVERY TO MADISON COUNTIES SHOULD SEE            
 SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL...AVERAGING 3 INCHES AND UP TO 5 INCHES             
 POSSIBLE IN SPOTS. BLOWING SNOW AND WIND CHILLS AT OR BELOW ZERO               
 SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 6Z FRI. THE LATEST              
 FORECAST AGREES WELL WITH THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING AND                 
 ADVISORIES. IN ADDITION...AREAS ADJACENT TO THE CURRENT HIGHLIGHTED            
 AREA MAY SEE WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.             
 EAST OF THE MTNS...TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY AND GUSTY.                
 CIRRUS SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS                              
 AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN A PARTLY SUNNY SKY. TEMPERATURES WILL                 
 REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS STRONG CAA ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON AND SLIDES            
 OVER THE ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE COLD...WITH TEENS            
 NORTH AND L20S SOUTH.                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                       
 COULD BE SOME BLOWING SNOW REMAINING FRIDAY MORNING WITH BREEZY                
 CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT SNOW SHOWERS END AS LOW LEVEL            
 MOISTURE DRIES UP. WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS PRESSURE                  
 GRADIENT RELAXES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. DRY WEATHER            
 WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.                               
 HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES RISE DRAMATICALLY SATURDAY AS POLAR VORTEX             
 PULLS EAST AND FLAT RIDGING DEVELOPS AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LOW            
 EJECTING EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE ABOVE                
 NORMAL HIGHS...BUT DID TREND TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE. MODELS                
 COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF THE EJECTING SW LOW...              
 BUT NAM SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER THAN OTHERS. THAT SAID...21Z SREF IS              
 LENDING SOME CREDENCE TO THE SLOWER SOLUTION. THE SREF ALSO                    
 INDICATES LIGHT PRECIP LIKELY FOR THE CWFA SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW             
 BROUGHT SOME CHC POP INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS AND NE GA...AND SLIGHT              
 CHC EAST OF THERE. GFS IS COLDER THAN THE NAM INDICATING P-TYPE                
 WOULD BE ALL SNOW FOR THE NC MTNS. USING A MODEL BLEND...PRODUCES A            
 RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW P-TYPE. THEREFORE HAVE RAIN OR SNOW MENTIONED            
 THERE WITH RAIN TO THE SOUTH. ANY PRECIP PRODUCED BY THE GULF LOW              
 ENDS SUNDAY MORNING WITH A SIMILAR P-TYPE BREAK UP. NW FLOW SNOW               
 SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A BREAK IN THE PRECIP                
 MONDAY...THEN A CLIPPER SYSTEM AND NORTHWEST FLOW BRING THE                    
 POSSIBILITY OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT                
 THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHC POP. DRY                   
 FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES A LITTLE             
 BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY RETURNING TO BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH                   
 WEDNESDAY.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION /09Z-06Z/...                                                         
 THE PERSISTENT BKN TO OVC CIRRUS THAT AS REMAINED OVER THE WESTERN             
 CAROLINAS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL COME TO AN END THIS                  
 AFTERNOON. THE THINNING CIRRUS WILL RESULT IN FEW TO SCT SKY COVER             
 EAST OF THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...THE MTNS WILL           
 SEE WIDESPREAD CAA AND NW FLOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING...AND            
 PEAKING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ARRIVAL OF THE CAA WILL                
 RESULT A 5 TO 6 KFT THICK MIXING LAYER AFTER NOON. MOMENTUM TRANSFER           
 WITHIN THE MIXING LAYER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN GUSTY CONDITIONS AFTER           
 15-18Z. THE WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE GREATEST AT KAVL...WITH FREQUENT            
 GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.                
 &&                                                                             
 .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 GA...NONE.                                                                     
 NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ033-048>050.            
      WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ051>053-             
      058-059-062.                                                              
      WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR                      
      NCZ063>065-501-503-505-507-509.                                           
 SC...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SHORT TERM...NED                                                               
 LONG TERM...RWH                                                                
 AVIATION...NED                                                                 
</pre> sc                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA            
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                        
 855 PM CST THU JAN 25 2007                                                     
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 WIDESPREAD DENSE/FREEZING FOG PERSISTING FROM THE JAMES VALLEY EAST            
 INTO NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...THOUGH FOG HAVING A              
 HARD TIME PUSHING EAST OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE WITH GREATER MIXING AND            
 SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE DRYING OUT BOUNDARY LAYER EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS.             
 SCATTERED SFC OBSERVATIONS STILL REPORTING SOME -SN AND HAVE BEEN              
 SEEING A LIGHT RIME ACCRETION ON UNTREATED SURFACES WITH THE LOWEST            
 VISIBILITIES AS WELL. 00Z RUNS OF BOTH NAM AND RUC ATTEMPTING TO               
 SCOUR OUT THE HIGHEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM THE WEST AFTER              
 06Z. AFTER A COUPLE OF NIGHTS OF WISHFUL THINKING REGARDING CLEARING           
 OF THE LOW CLOUDS...WILL REMAIN ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE FOR NOW AND            
 KEEP OUR FREEZING FOG ADVISORY AS IS UNTIL 10Z FOR NOW.                        
 REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IN DECENT SHAPE. AS EARLIER SHIFT                    
 ANTICIPATED...STARTING TO SEE TEMPS EDGE UPWARD A BIT WITH INFLUX              
 OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE LIKELY SEEN OUR LOWS IN MANY PLACES           
 ALREADY...AND MADE ADJUSTMENT TO THE GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. ADDITIONAL             
 UPDATES TO THE ZFP NOT PLANNED AT THIS TIME.                                   
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN FZFG COVERING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM            
 THE JAMES RIVER TO THE BUFFALO RIDGE...AS WELL AS INTO NORTHWEST               
 IOWA. CLEARING LINE AS OF 03Z RUNNING FROM WESTERN EDGE OF BEADLE              
 COUNTY...TO JUST WEST OF KMHE AND KYKN. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MAKING           
 MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESS...HOWEVER LATEST MODELS SHOW RAPID DECREASE             
 IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST               
 AREA IN 06Z-09Z TIME FRAME. COULD SEE QUICK IMPROVEMENT IN                     
 VSBYS/CIGS...ESPECIALLY AT KHON AROUND 06Z.                                    
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 ON FRI...SFC FNT WL DROP THRU CWA IN THE MORN...WITH CAA AT H85.               
 THIS SHUD CREATE CONDITIONS FOR GOOD MIXING AND THIS WARMER                    
 TEMPS...MAIN ALONG AND E OF JAMES RVR. ALSO BUMPED UP WNDS AS CUD              
 SEE GUSTS TO 35 MPH. MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR POT WND ADVY. ARCTIC AIR            
 WL MOVE INTO CWA LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORN BEHIND S/W. HIGH TEMPS           
 WL LIKELY OCCUR IN MORN...FOLLOWED BY FALLING TEMPS. STRATUS ALSO              
 EXPECTED TO SPREAD S ACRS CWA ON SAT AND THERE CUD BE SOME LIGHT               
 SNOW OR FLURRIES. COLD DAY ON TAP FOR SUN...BUT SHUD SEE A LTL MORE            
 SUN THAN ON SAT. LOW TEMPS SUN NITE WL PBLY OCCUR IN EVE...WITH                
 SLOWLY RISING TEMPS AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SLY AHEAD OF NEXT FNT.           
 IN THE EXTENDED MON THRU THU...THE MAIN STORY WL BE COLD WX                    
 CONTINUING WITH REALLY NO BREAKS. THE MEDR MODELS CONT TO BE IN                
 PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON SHOWING FROPA WITH MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR IN             
 THIS AREA EARLY MONDAY...AND AGAIN LATE TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED.               
 THEREFORE KEPT SMALL POPS GOING FOR THE DAY PD ON MON...AND                    
 INTRODUCED SMALL POPS ON WED. BOTH DAYS ARE POST FRONTAL AND SHOW              
 SOME CLOUD COVER...WITH SUPPORT ON BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ON THIS. I           
 MAY BE TOO LOW WITH THE CLOUD COVER ON WED. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED             
 WHEN THE TIME COMES TO SEE SOME NON DIURNAL READINGS ON MON AND                
 WED...POSSIBLY WITH MORNING HIGHS THEN FALLING TEMPS. TUE STILL                
 SHOWS AS THE DAY WITH THE OVERALL WARMEST AIRMASS. BUT OF COURSE               
 WARMING WL BE TEMPERED WITH SNOW COVER OVR MUCH OF THE FA. AND IF              
 AND WHEN THE WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH...THE INVERSION MAY               
 FORCE THE WINDS TO A SELY DIRECTION WHICH IS NEVER GOOD FOR WARMING.           
 LIKE TODAY...ONCE THE WINDS GO AROUND TO A S OR SE DIRECTION AHEAD             
 OF WEDNESDAYS FRONT...WE COULD EVEN GET STRATUS. CANNOT RULE THAT              
 OUT. ON THU..LOOKS COLD BEHIND WEDNESDAYS FRONT. BUT THE MOST BRUTAL           
 AIR CONTS TO BE SHOWN BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ADVECTING INTO OUR             
 FA BY NEXT FRI AND THRU THE WEEKEND. COLDER THAN -30C AT H85 ON THE            
 LATEST GFS IN OUR FA BY 12Z SAT. CLOUDS OR NOT...THAT WOULD BE COLD.           
 FOR LOW TEMPS...THEY COULD BE TEMPERED BY SOME CLOUD COVER IN THE              
 MORNINGS AND ALSO WITH SOME CONTINUOUS CAA MIXING WIND THAT WL                 
 LIKELY OCCUR AFTER THE FROPAS. SO EVEN THOUGH THE DAYTIME MAY BE               
 SEASONABLY CHILLY...THE NIGHTS TEMP WISE MAY NOT BE FRIGID. ANY                
 CLEARING EARLY IN THE MORNING WITH ANY DROP OFF OF WIND THOUGH...AND           
 TEMPS WL PLUMMET.                                                              
 &&                                                                             
 .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 SD...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM FOR SDZ038>040-052>056-                  
      060>062-066-067.                                                          
 MN...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM FOR MNZ089-097-098.                      
 IA...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM FOR IAZ001>003-012>014-                  
      020>022-032.                                                              
 NE...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
  JH                                                                            
</pre> sd                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                         
 1240 AM EST FRI JAN 26 2007                                                    
 .UPDATE...AVIATION.                                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION /05Z-24Z/...                                                         
 BANDS OF MVFR CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED IN THE WEST.                    
 LOCALIZED BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER               
 EARLY THIS MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES WILL END THIS               
 MORNING...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WEST.           
 IN THE EAST...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. MOUNTAIN              
 OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST THIS MORNING.                            
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 /ISSUED 1152 PM EST THU JAN 25 2007/                                           
 UPDATE...                                                                      
 SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...                                                
 RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW FAIRLY STRONG SNOW BANDS EXTENDING ACROSS              
 WV AND INTO SE OHIO. THESE BANDS WILL KEEP BRINGING AT LEAST MODERATE          
 SNOW TO WESTERN GREENBRIER...AND LIGHTER SNOW FURTHER EAST. I HAVE             
 MADE SOME QUICK ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SNOW AND WEATHER GRIDS TO SHOW              
 MORE SNOW FOR THE NEXT 4 HOURS...AND MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS                
 AND TEMPERATURES. EXPECTING AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THAT                
 SMALL PORTION OF THE COUNTY...SO WILL JUST KEEP THE ADVISORY                   
 GOING. HAVE HAD REPORTS OF 6 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE WESTERN                
 SLOPES IN WESTERN GREENBRIER. AN UPDATED WSW WILL BE ISSUED SOON.              
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 851 PM EST THU JAN 25 2007/                                            
 SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...                                                
 UPPER TROF PIVOTING ACROSS THE AREA PER VAPOR LOOP WILL CONTINUE               
 TO PASS EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MOISTURE TO SLOWLY                   
 DECREASE ESPCLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LINGERING -SHSN FINALLY FADING             
 LATE ACROSS THE NW PER LATEST WRF/RUC OUTPUT. HOWEVER APPEARS                  
 NARROW BANDED SHSN WILL LINGER A WHILE LONGER SW VA/SE WVA GIVEN               
 STRONG/DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL NW FLOW SEEN IN 00Z RNK RAOB. THUS PLAN             
 TO LEAVE WINTER WX ADVISORY IN PLACE AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS TO              
 ALLOW ANY ACCUMULATING -SHSN TO DIMINISH TO FLURRIES. OTRW WILL                
 CONTINUE WITH OVERALL LIKELY POPS FAR NW AND CUT TO CHANCE OR JUST             
 FLURRIES ELSEWHERE OVER THE RIDGES...AND MAINLY PC/CLEAR OUT EAST              
 IN DOWNSLOPE FLOW. AS RH DECREASES BEHIND DEPARTING VORT ALSO                  
 EXPECT SOME SURGE IN WINDS ESPCLY SW VA GIVEN COLD ADVECTION...BUT             
 MAY BE MARGINAL ADVISORY GIVEN RATHER WEAK PRES RISES. THIS MAY                
 ALSO MAKE REACHING WIND CHILL VALUES IFFY (OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAIN             
 TOP AT HSP) AS TEMPS RATHER SLOW TO FALL AND EXPECT MAY NOT REACH              
 GOING LOWS UNDER CLOUDS/MIXING AS BEST COLD AIR PASSES NORTH.                  
 THEREFORE RAISING LOWS A LITTLE...BUT MAINTAINING WIND/CHILL                   
 ADVISORIES FOR NOW SINCE COLDER AIR ALOFT/STRONGEST WINDS DONT                 
 ARRIVE UNTIL ABOUT 06Z.                                                        
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 724 PM EST THU JAN 25 2007/                                            
 UPDATE...                                                                      
 WITH SNOW SHOWERS HAVING DIMINISHED ACROSS NW NC AND GRAYSON CTY               
 VA WILL SEND A QUICK UPDATE TO DROP THESE AREAS FROM THE WINTER WX             
 ADVISORY OVERNIGHT. OTRW HOLDING ADVISORY IN PLACE ELSEWHERE GIVEN             
 CONTINUING BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS. ALSO FEW OTHER CHANGES OTHER                 
 THAN TO LOWER POPS AS WELL ACROSS THE SW ZONES.                                
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 654 PM EST THU JAN 25 2007/                                            
 AVIATION /00Z-24Z/...                                                          
 BANDED HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS CONTINE ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE                 
 RIDGE...AND EXPECT THESE WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS               
 LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP WITH CONTINUED INFLUX OF COLD               
 AIR. MVFR CONDITONS EXPECTED ACRS THE FAR WEST...WITH LOCALIZED                
 BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR IN HEAVIER SNOW...TRANSITIONING TO VFR                    
 STRATOCU CLOUD DECK ACRS MOST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND CLEAR                       
 CONDITIONS OUT EAST. THINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT AS             
 COLD ADVECTION WANES AND SFC RIDGING ATTEMPS TO POKE INTO THE                  
 REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE GUSTY FOR MOST AREAS AS SECONDARY              
 PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES PRIOR TO 06Z...LIKELY DECREASING                
 EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT AS SFC RIDGING WINS OUT. A                  
 RETURN TO VFR ALL AREAS TOMORROW MORNING...THOUGH STRATOCU DECK                
 MAY LINGER ACRS THE FAR WEST INTO EARLY AFTN.                                  
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 231 PM EST THU JAN 25 2007/                                            
 SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                         
 KEEPING THE CURRENT ADVISORIES GOING...AS SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERIST             
 SEEING UPSTREAM BANDS INTO OH/IN. WINDS WILL ALSO BE A FACTOR...AND            
 AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE TEENS TONIGHT...WIND CHILLS WILL DROP BELOW             
 ZERO. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD START TAPERING OFF TOWARD MORNING...AS LOW           
 LVL MOISTURE SHRINKS...AND RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.               
 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE WORKING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY               
 WITH WINDS DIMINISHING. BUMPED HIGHS UP SOME AS SKIES SHOULD CLEAR             
 ENOUGH WITH WAA. STILL A CHILLY DAY.                                           
 A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL BRING RETURN OF CLOUDS TO THE NRN                
 PORTION OF THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF RW/SW. WITH A            
 WESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THIS LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH            
 PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL WARM TEMPS UP INTO THE 50S OUT           
 EAST. SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL HANG ALONG THE GULF COAST AND NOT               
 PHASE WITH THIS NRN STREAM WAVE. FRONT COMING THROUGH LOOKS TO                 
 PRODUCE A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER VA SAT NIGHT. LOOKING AT              
 MAINLY CHANCES OF SNOW IN THE WESTERN FORECAST...AS THE WEST FLOW              
 DRIES THINGS OUT A BIT. FLOW GOES NW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY AND             
 WE GET INTO THE SNOW SHOWER REGIME THAT LASTS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.               
 LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                   
 OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY A TROUGH IN THE                      
 EAST...WITH SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND 2-3 CLIPPER SYSTEMS. THE FIRST             
 SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING PAST BY THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD WITH SNOW           
 SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE NEXT CLIPPER ARRIVES TUESDAY AND                 
 ANOTHER THURSDAY. EACH ONE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE                  
 WESTERN FORECAST AREA...BUT THE MAIN ENERGY WITH THESE SYSTEMS WILL            
 STAY WELL NORTH...SO NOT EXPECTING TO GET MUCH INFLUX OF MOISTURE TO           
 BRING SIGNIFICANT PRECIP.                                                      
 AVIATION /18Z-18Z/...                                                          
 SNOW SQUALLS IN THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN HIGHLY VARYING             
 VSBYS THRU THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING...WHILE CIGS REMAIN MOSTLY IN            
 THE MVFR CATEGORY. IN THE EAST SCTD FLURRIES SHUD NOT PRODUCE LOWER            
 THAN BRIEF 5SM VSBYS...NOT WORTH MENTIONING IN THE TAFS. NORTHWEST             
 WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG...GUSTING BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KTS AT TIMES            
 THRU THE EARLY EVENING. MVFR CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT AT BLF/LWB              
 UNTIL MIDDAY TMRW.                                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR                 
      VAZ007-009>011-015-018>020.                                               
      WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR VAZ015.               
      WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR             
      VAZ007-009-010.                                                           
 NC...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR                 
      NCZ001-018.                                                               
      WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NCZ001-018.           
 WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR                 
      WVZ042>045.                                                               
      WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR             
      WVZ042-043-045.                                                           
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 UPDATE...                                                                      
 AVIATION...07                                                                  
</pre> va                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                             
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                         
 1152 PM EST THU JAN 25 2007                                                    
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...                                               
 RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW FAIRLY STRONG SNOW BANDS EXTENDING ACROSS              
 WV AND INTO SE OHIO. THESE BANDS WILL KEEP BRINGING AT LEAST MODERATE          
 SNOW TO WESTERN GREENBRIER...AND LIGHTER SNOW FURTHER EAST. I HAVE             
 MADE SOME QUICK ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SNOW AND WEATHER GRIDS TO SHOW              
 MORE SNOW FOR THE NEXT 4 HOURS...AND MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS                
 AND TEMPERATURES. EXPECTING AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THAT                
 SMALL PORTION OF THE COUNTY...SO WILL JUST KEEP THE ADVISORY                   
 GOING. HAVE HAD REPORTS OF 6 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE WESTERN                
 SLOPES IN WESTERN GREENBRIER. AN UPDATED WSW WILL BE ISSUED SOON.              
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 /ISSUED 851 PM EST THU JAN 25 2007/                                            
 SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...                                                
 UPPER TROF PIVOTING ACROSS THE AREA PER VAPOR LOOP WILL CONTINUE               
 TO PASS EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MOISTURE TO SLOWLY                   
 DECREASE ESPCLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LINGERING -SHSN FINALLY FADING             
 LATE ACROSS THE NW PER LATEST WRF/RUC OUTPUT. HOWEVER APPEARS                  
 NARROW BANDED SHSN WILL LINGER A WHILE LONGER SW VA/SE WVA GIVEN               
 STRONG/DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL NW FLOW SEEN IN 00Z RNK RAOB. THUS PLAN             
 TO LEAVE WINTER WX ADVISORY IN PLACE AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS TO              
 ALLOW ANY ACCUMULATING -SHSN TO DIMINISH TO FLURRIES. OTRW WILL                
 CONTINUE WITH OVERALL LIKELY POPS FAR NW AND CUT TO CHANCE OR JUST             
 FLURRIES ELSEWHERE OVER THE RIDGES...AND MAINLY PC/CLEAR OUT EAST              
 IN DOWNSLOPE FLOW. AS RH DECREASES BEHIND DEPARTING VORT ALSO                  
 EXPECT SOME SURGE IN WINDS ESPCLY SW VA GIVEN COLD ADVECTION...BUT             
 MAY BE MARGINAL ADVISORY GIVEN RATHER WEAK PRES RISES. THIS MAY                
 ALSO MAKE REACHING WIND CHILL VALUES IFFY (OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAIN             
 TOP AT HSP) AS TEMPS RATHER SLOW TO FALL AND EXPECT MAY NOT REACH              
 GOING LOWS UNDER CLOUDS/MIXING AS BEST COLD AIR PASSES NORTH.                  
 THEREFORE RAISING LOWS A LITTLE...BUT MAINTAINING WIND/CHILL                   
 ADVISORIES FOR NOW SINCE COLDER AIR ALOFT/STRONGEST WINDS DONT                 
 ARRIVE UNTIL ABOUT 06Z.                                                        
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 724 PM EST THU JAN 25 2007/                                            
 UPDATE...                                                                      
 WITH SNOW SHOWERS HAVING DIMINISHED ACROSS NW NC AND GRAYSON CTY               
 VA WILL SEND A QUICK UPDATE TO DROP THESE AREAS FROM THE WINTER WX             
 ADVISORY OVERNIGHT. OTRW HOLDING ADVISORY IN PLACE ELSEWHERE GIVEN             
 CONTINUING BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS. ALSO FEW OTHER CHANGES OTHER                 
 THAN TO LOWER POPS AS WELL ACROSS THE SW ZONES.                                
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 654 PM EST THU JAN 25 2007/                                            
 AVIATION /00Z-24Z/...                                                          
 BANDED HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS CONTINE ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE                 
 RIDGE...AND EXPECT THESE WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS               
 LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP WITH CONTINUED INFLUX OF COLD               
 AIR. MVFR CONDITONS EXPECTED ACRS THE FAR WEST...WITH LOCALIZED                
 BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR IN HEAVIER SNOW...TRANSITIONING TO VFR                    
 STRATOCU CLOUD DECK ACRS MOST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND CLEAR                       
 CONDITIONS OUT EAST. THINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT AS             
 COLD ADVECTION WANES AND SFC RIDGING ATTEMPS TO POKE INTO THE                  
 REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE GUSTY FOR MOST AREAS AS SECONDARY              
 PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES PRIOR TO 06Z...LIKELY DECREASING                
 EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT AS SFC RIDGING WINS OUT. A                  
 RETURN TO VFR ALL AREAS TOMORROW MORNING...THOUGH STRATOCU DECK                
 MAY LINGER ACRS THE FAR WEST INTO EARLY AFTN.                                  
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 231 PM EST THU JAN 25 2007/                                            
 SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                         
 KEEPING THE CURRENT ADVISORIES GOING...AS SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERIST             
 SEEING UPSTREAM BANDS INTO OH/IN. WINDS WILL ALSO BE A FACTOR...AND            
 AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE TEENS TONIGHT...WIND CHILLS WILL DROP BELOW             
 ZERO. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD START TAPERING OFF TOWARD MORNING...AS LOW           
 LVL MOISTURE SHRINKS...AND RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.               
 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE WORKING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY               
 WITH WINDS DIMINISHING. BUMPED HIGHS UP SOME AS SKIES SHOULD CLEAR             
 ENOUGH WITH WAA. STILL A CHILLY DAY.                                           
 A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL BRING RETURN OF CLOUDS TO THE NRN                
 PORTION OF THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF RW/SW. WITH A            
 WESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THIS LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH            
 PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL WARM TEMPS UP INTO THE 50S OUT           
 EAST. SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL HANG ALONG THE GULF COAST AND NOT               
 PHASE WITH THIS NRN STREAM WAVE. FRONT COMING THROUGH LOOKS TO                 
 PRODUCE A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER VA SAT NIGHT. LOOKING AT              
 MAINLY CHANCES OF SNOW IN THE WESTERN FORECAST...AS THE WEST FLOW              
 DRIES THINGS OUT A BIT. FLOW GOES NW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY AND             
 WE GET INTO THE SNOW SHOWER REGIME THAT LASTS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.               
 LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                   
 OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY A TROUGH IN THE                      
 EAST...WITH SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND 2-3 CLIPPER SYSTEMS. THE FIRST             
 SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING PAST BY THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD WITH SNOW           
 SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE NEXT CLIPPER ARRIVES TUESDAY AND                 
 ANOTHER THURSDAY. EACH ONE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE                  
 WESTERN FORECAST AREA...BUT THE MAIN ENERGY WITH THESE SYSTEMS WILL            
 STAY WELL NORTH...SO NOT EXPECTING TO GET MUCH INFLUX OF MOISTURE TO           
 BRING SIGNIFICANT PRECIP.                                                      
 AVIATION /18Z-18Z/...                                                          
 SNOW SQUALLS IN THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN HIGHLY VARYING             
 VSBYS THRU THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING...WHILE CIGS REMAIN MOSTLY IN            
 THE MVFR CATEGORY. IN THE EAST SCTD FLURRIES SHUD NOT PRODUCE LOWER            
 THAN BRIEF 5SM VSBYS...NOT WORTH MENTIONING IN THE TAFS. NORTHWEST             
 WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG...GUSTING BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KTS AT TIMES            
 THRU THE EARLY EVENING. MVFR CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT AT BLF/LWB              
 UNTIL MIDDAY TMRW.                                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ007-009>011-             
      015-018>020.                                                              
      WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ015.                           
      WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ007-009-             
      010.                                                                      
 NC...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ001-018.                 
      WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ001-018.                       
 WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ042>045.                 
      WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ042-043-             
      045.                                                                      
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 UPDATE...                                                                      
 SHORT TERM...JJ                                                                
</pre> va                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                             
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                         
 851 PM EST THU JAN 25 2007                                                     
 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...                                               
 UPPER TROF PIVOTING ACROSS THE AREA PER VAPOR LOOP WILL CONTINUE               
 TO PASS EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MOISTURE TO SLOWLY                   
 DECREASE ESPCLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LINGERING -SHSN FINALLY FADING             
 LATE ACROSS THE NW PER LATEST WRF/RUC OUTPUT. HOWEVER APPEARS                  
 NARROW BANDED SHSN WILL LINGER A WHILE LONGER SW VA/SE WVA GIVEN               
 STRONG/DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL NW FLOW SEEN IN 00Z RNK RAOB. THUS PLAN             
 TO LEAVE WINTER WX ADVISORY IN PLACE AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS TO              
 ALLOW ANY ACCUMULATING -SHSN TO DIMINISH TO FLURRIES. OTRW WILL                
 CONTINUE WITH OVERALL LIKELY POPS FAR NW AND CUT TO CHANCE OR JUST             
 FLURRIES ELSEWHERE OVER THE RIDGES...AND MAINLY PC/CLEAR OUT EAST              
 IN DOWNSLOPE FLOW. AS RH DECREASES BEHIND DEPARTING VORT ALSO                  
 EXPECT SOME SURGE IN WINDS ESPCLY SW VA GIVEN COLD ADVECTION...BUT             
 MAY BE MARGINAL ADVISORY GIVEN RATHER WEAK PRES RISES. THIS MAY                
 ALSO MAKE REACHING WIND CHILL VALUES IFFY (OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAIN             
 TOP AT HSP) AS TEMPS RATHER SLOW TO FALL AND EXPECT MAY NOT REACH              
 GOING LOWS UNDER CLOUDS/MIXING AS BEST COLD AIR PASSES NORTH.                  
 THEREFORE RAISING LOWS A LITTLE...BUT MAINTAINING WIND/CHILL                   
 ADVISORIES FOR NOW SINCE COLDER AIR ALOFT/STRONGEST WINDS DONT                 
 ARRIVE UNTIL ABOUT 06Z.                                                        
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 /ISSUED 724 PM EST THU JAN 25 2007/                                            
 UPDATE...                                                                      
 WITH SNOW SHOWERS HAVING DIMINISHED ACROSS NW NC AND GRAYSON CTY               
 VA WILL SEND A QUICK UPDATE TO DROP THESE AREAS FROM THE WINTER WX             
 ADVISORY OVERNIGHT. OTRW HOLDING ADVISORY IN PLACE ELSEWHERE GIVEN             
 CONTINUING BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS. ALSO FEW OTHER CHANGES OTHER                 
 THAN TO LOWER POPS AS WELL ACROSS THE SW ZONES.                                
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 654 PM EST THU JAN 25 2007/                                            
 AVIATION /00Z-24Z/...                                                          
 BANDED HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS CONTINE ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE                 
 RIDGE...AND EXPECT THESE WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS               
 LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP WITH CONTINUED INFLUX OF COLD               
 AIR. MVFR CONDITONS EXPECTED ACRS THE FAR WEST...WITH LOCALIZED                
 BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR IN HEAVIER SNOW...TRANSITIONING TO VFR                    
 STRATOCU CLOUD DECK ACRS MOST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND CLEAR                       
 CONDITIONS OUT EAST. THINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT AS             
 COLD ADVECTION WANES AND SFC RIDGING ATTEMPS TO POKE INTO THE                  
 REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE GUSTY FOR MOST AREAS AS SECONDARY              
 PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES PRIOR TO 06Z...LIKELY DECREASING                
 EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT AS SFC RIDGING WINS OUT. A                  
 RETURN TO VFR ALL AREAS TOMORROW MORNING...THOUGH STRATOCU DECK                
 MAY LINGER ACRS THE FAR WEST INTO EARLY AFTN.                                  
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 231 PM EST THU JAN 25 2007/                                            
 SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                         
 KEEPING THE CURRENT ADVISORIES GOING...AS SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERIST             
 SEEING UPSTREAM BANDS INTO OH/IN. WINDS WILL ALSO BE A FACTOR...AND            
 AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE TEENS TONIGHT...WIND CHILLS WILL DROP BELOW             
 ZERO. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD START TAPERING OFF TOWARD MORNING...AS LOW           
 LVL MOISTURE SHRINKS...AND RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.               
 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE WORKING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY               
 WITH WINDS DIMINISHING. BUMPED HIGHS UP SOME AS SKIES SHOULD CLEAR             
 ENOUGH WITH WAA. STILL A CHILLY DAY.                                           
 A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL BRING RETURN OF CLOUDS TO THE NRN                
 PORTION OF THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF RW/SW. WITH A            
 WESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THIS LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH            
 PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL WARM TEMPS UP INTO THE 50S OUT           
 EAST. SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL HANG ALONG THE GULF COAST AND NOT               
 PHASE WITH THIS NRN STREAM WAVE. FRONT COMING THROUGH LOOKS TO                 
 PRODUCE A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER VA SAT NIGHT. LOOKING AT              
 MAINLY CHANCES OF SNOW IN THE WESTERN FORECAST...AS THE WEST FLOW              
 DRIES THINGS OUT A BIT. FLOW GOES NW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY AND             
 WE GET INTO THE SNOW SHOWER REGIME THAT LASTS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.               
 LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                   
 OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY A TROUGH IN THE                      
 EAST...WITH SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND 2-3 CLIPPER SYSTEMS. THE FIRST             
 SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING PAST BY THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD WITH SNOW           
 SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE NEXT CLIPPER ARRIVES TUESDAY AND                 
 ANOTHER THURSDAY. EACH ONE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE                  
 WESTERN FORECAST AREA...BUT THE MAIN ENERGY WITH THESE SYSTEMS WILL            
 STAY WELL NORTH...SO NOT EXPECTING TO GET MUCH INFLUX OF MOISTURE TO           
 BRING SIGNIFICANT PRECIP.                                                      
 AVIATION /18Z-18Z/...                                                          
 SNOW SQUALLS IN THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN HIGHLY VARYING             
 VSBYS THRU THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING...WHILE CIGS REMAIN MOSTLY IN            
 THE MVFR CATEGORY. IN THE EAST SCTD FLURRIES SHUD NOT PRODUCE LOWER            
 THAN BRIEF 5SM VSBYS...NOT WORTH MENTIONING IN THE TAFS. NORTHWEST             
 WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG...GUSTING BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KTS AT TIMES            
 THRU THE EARLY EVENING. MVFR CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT AT BLF/LWB              
 UNTIL MIDDAY TMRW.                                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ007-              
      009>011-015-018>020.                                                      
      WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ015.                           
      WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ007-009-             
      010.                                                                      
 NC...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ001-              
      018.                                                                      
      WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ001-018.                       
 WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR                      
      WVZ042>045.                                                               
      WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ042-043-             
      045.                                                                      
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 UPDATE...                                                                      
 SHORT TERM...10                                                                
</pre> va                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                         
 132 AM EST SAT JAN 27 2007                                                     
 .AVIATION /06Z-06Z/...                                                         
 A WEAK SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL MOVE ACROSS           
 THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH ONLY WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS              
 FEATURE PRECIP WILL BE LIMITED AND COULD EITHER BE SPOTTY FREEZING             
 DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SNOW. IN GENERAL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD                
 WILL BE MVFR DUE TO CIGS, EXCEPT AT KAVP WHERE VFR MAY PREVAIL.                
 CIGS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH VSBY RESTRICTIONS TO IFR AT KSYR                
 BTW 14Z-18Z DUE TO LIGHT SNOW AND FOG. THIS MAY NEED TO BE                     
 ADJUSTED TO INCLUDE FREEZING DRIZZLE, IF CONDITIONS BECOME MORE                
 WIDESPREAD UPSTREAM. MODEL SOUNDINGS DUE SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR                
 THIS PRECIP TYPE. MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG ARE ALSO                   
 EXPECTED AT KTIH/KBGM BTW 14Z-18Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN BTW 5-10                  
 KNOTS, PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING THEN SOUTHERLY BY                
 MID MORNING SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO WESTERLY             
 TOWARD EVENING. RRM                                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 /ISSUED 746 PM EST FRI JAN 26 2007/                                            
 SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...                                                
 MAY DO ANOTHER UPDATE PRIOR TO SHIFT CHANGE. FOR NOW WE HAVE A BIG             
 UPDATE TO TEMPS FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF REGION, AS AREA FROM                   
 NORTHERN ONEIDA SOUTH TOWARD OTSEGO IS AT OR BELOW ZERO. WE USED               
 RUC TEMPS, MODIFIED BY CURRENT MESO OBS, AS A BEST GUESS AT TREND.             
 ALSO TWEAKED TIMING OF PRECIP WHICH HAS ARRIVED SOONER THAN                    
 ANTICIPATED IN THE FINGER LAKES.  DJP                                          
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 331 PM EST FRI JAN 26 2007/                                            
 SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...                                   
 VIS IMAGERY SHOWS SHALLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS AND CLDS FROM NW-SE           
 ACRS CWA AS MID-HI CLDS FROM NEXT WAVE OVERSPREAD WRN NY/AND MUCH OF           
 WRN AND SRN PA. THIS NEXT WAVE WAS LEADG TO A WAA SUPPORTED SHIELD             
 OF SNOWS WHICH ARE PROJECTED TO DRY UP SOME AS IT TRACKS E TONIGHT.            
 ACC/S WILL BE LESS THAN ONE INCH AS THE SYSTEM REALLY LACKS                    
 MOISTURE. AFTER THE DEEPER WAA PASSES E...THERE IS STILL SHALLOW               
 MOISTURE LEFT OVER AFTER MAIN SNOWS AND WAA PASS E AND DIMINISH                
 LATER TONIGHT. SEE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE PATCHY FZDZ FOR A FEW                
 HOURS AFTER MAIN SHIELD OF LIGHT SNOWS DRY UP AS IT WORKS E LATER              
 TONIGHT.                                                                       
 FOR SAT...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLDY WITH A LL MOISTURE FEED ACRS MOST             
 OF CWA AND LEAD TO LIGHT SNOWS AND FLURRIES MUCH OF THE DAY. NOT               
 MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACC/S EXPECTED.                                             
 CLIPPER DROPS THRU FA SAT EVENING WITH FRONT DRAPED ACROSS UPSTATE             
 NY BACK THRU LK MI. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING.             
 BOTH GFS AND WRF ADVERTISE WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT SUN                 
 NIGHT TO HELP PULL IT THRU.                                                    
 THIS PORTION OF SHORT TERM STILL UP IN THE AIR IN REGARD TO WHEN               
 BEST PCPN CHCS WILL BE. ONCE FNT PASSES...LAKE EFFECT POSSIBLE                 
 THRU END OF THE SHORT TERM...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT                
 ACROSS FAVORED AREAS AFTER DEEP H5 TROF PASSES EAST. TEMPS WILL                
 CONTINUE TO RUN SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL AS TROF REMAINS OVER NORTHEAST             
 AND HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS OVER WEST COAST.                               
 LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                          
 COLD PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS OFF THE                
 LAKES AND AN OCCASIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCE OR REINFORCING COLD WAVE              
 MOVING THROUGH. ON TUESDAY...WEAK LOW PRES AREA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE           
 LAKES AND NEW YORK BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES.             
 HIGH PRES CENTER WILL PASS ACROSS PA ON WED WITH WLY WINDS OFF THE             
 LAKES. ANOTHER LOW PRES AREA MOVES ACROSS THE LAKES INTO SE CANADA             
 THU BRINGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH NY AND PA THU NIGHT WITH               
 SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.                                                         
 &&                                                                             
 .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NY...NONE.                                                                     
 PA...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> ny                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA                                            
 1018 PM PST FRI JAN 26 2007                                                    
 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK                 
 RESULTING IN A DRY AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS             
 AND FOG WILL PERSIST TONIGHT...BUT DRIER AIR MOVING IN                         
 FROM THE NORTH WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE THIS COVERAGE THROUGH THE                
 WEEKEND.                                                                       
 &&                                                                             
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AND CLOUD/FOG                
 COVER OVERNIGHT. REX BLOCK HOLDING STRONG ALOFT WHILE A WEAK                   
 SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPED EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. HIGH                  
 PRESSURE RESIDES NORTH OF THE BC BORDER...ENHANCING NORTHERLY FLOW             
 ESPECIALLY DOWN THE OKANOGAN VALLEY. THIS HAS CLEARED THE STRATUS              
 AND FOG AND ALLOWED DEWPOINTS TO DROP ACROSS MUCH OF OKANOGAN...               
 FERRY...DOUGLAS AND MUCH OF CHELAN COUNTIES. MEANWHILE...STRATUS               
 AND FOG CONTINUES TO PLAGUE ELEVATIONS BELOW 3500 FEET. THE HIGH               
 PRESSURE CELL WILL SHIFT EAST AND HELP GENERATE A NORTHEAST FLOW               
 ACROSS NORTH IDAHO. THIS CAN BE SEEN DEVELOPING WITH SPOTTY                    
 CLEARING TAKING PLACE FROM SANDPOINT TO COEUR D`ALENE. THE                     
 NAM...RUC AND GFS SHOW THIS TREND CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS              
 THE DRIER AIR SEEPS INTO THE REGION. THE PROBLEM IS THE TIME OF                
 THE NIGHT AS IT BATTLES THE DIURNALLY FAVORED TIME FOR FOG                     
 DEVELOPMENT. WILL ANTICIPATE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN THE NE                     
 VALLEYS...WHILE THE STRATUS AND LCL FOG WILL HOLD TIGHT ACROSS                 
 MUCH OF THE BASIN...PALOUSE...LEWISTON AND WENATCHEE AREAS.                    
 ADJUSTED LOWS WITH SIMILAR IF NOT SLIGHTLY LOWER READINGS THAN                 
 SEEN LAST NIGHT IN THE CLEARED OUT NRN VALLEYS. RFOX.                          
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...AGAIN...THE BIG CONCERN WILL BE THE STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS         
 MANY LOWER ELEVATIONS SITES. THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUAL ERODE               
 OR IMPROVE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO                  
 FILTER SOUTH THROUGH THE OKANOGAN VALLEY AND THE PURCELL TRENCH.               
 COMPLICATING MATTERS IS THE CONTINUED VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS IN                 
 THESE AREAS. THUS...IF THE STRATUS LAYER DOES BREAK UP OR SHIFT                
 SOUTH...GROUND FOG COULD DEVELOP QUICKLY RESULTING IN IFR CIGS AND             
 VSBYS IN THIS AREA FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BEFORE 14Z. DRIER AIR FILTERING          
 THROUGH THE PURCELL TRENCH SHOULD CLEAR OUT KGEG/KSFF/KCOE BTWN                
 10-14Z. DOWNSLOPING EASTERLY FLOW WILL HELP ERODE THE STRATUS/FOG              
 FROM KPUW AND KLWS BEFORE 18Z...MEANWHILE KMWH AND FINALLY KEAT                
 WILL SHOW SOME CLEARING FROM THE NORTH- NORTHEAST FLOW BY 18Z AS               
 WELL. ONCE CONDS BECOME VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THERE IS FAIR                 
 CONFIDENCE THEY SHOULD HOLD THROUGH 06Z SUN. RFOX.                             
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 SPOKANE        22  33  17  34  18  31 /   0   0   0   0   0   0                
 COEUR D`ALENE  24  35  19  33  20  32 /   0   0   0   0   0   0                
 PULLMAN        22  33  19  33  20  34 /   0   0   0   0   0   0                
 LEWISTON       27  36  23  36  23  38 /   0   0   0  10   0   0                
 COLVILLE       20  38  17  35  17  29 /   0   0   0   0   0   0                
 SANDPOINT      20  35  16  33  18  31 /   0   0   0   0   0   0                
 KELLOGG        20  33  17  32  18  30 /   0   0   0   0   0   0                
 MOSES LAKE     24  33  21  33  21  37 /  10  10  10  10   0   0                
 WENATCHEE      26  34  23  34  24  35 /  10  10  10   0   0   0                
 OMAK           23  38  20  36  18  33 /   0   0   0   0   0   0                
 &&                                                                             
 .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 ID...NONE.                                                                     
 WA...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> wa                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                             
 702 AM MST SAT JAN 27 2007                                                     
 .UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED FCST TO BOOST POPS SLIGHTLY OVER NRN PORTION            
 OF CWA THIS MORN...AS BAND OF LIGHT SNOW HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA.              
 SNOWFALL APPEARS TO BE RATHER LIGHT IN THIS FIRST BAND...AND MAY NOT           
 EVEN ACCUMULATE IN THE SHORT TERM. HI-RES RUC AND LATEST NAM                   
 CONFINE MOST OF THE SNOWFALL TO EL PASO AND TELLER COUNTIES UNTIL              
 AROUND 18Z. MAY SEE SOME MORE ISOLD SNOWFALL TO THE SOUTH THRU                 
 THIS MORNING. STILL LOOKS ON TARGET FOR A BETTER SHOT OF                       
 ACCUMULATIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. ROSE                               
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM MST SAT JAN 27 2007/                        
 SHORT TERM...                                                                  
 TODAY AND TONIGHT                                                              
 ..TIMING OF SNOW AND ACCUMULATIONS ARE MAIN SHORT TERM CHALLENGES...           
 WV IMAGERY SHOWS SHRTWAV MOVING THRU NRN WY ATTM. LIGHT RADAR                  
 RETURNS HAVE BEEN SHOWING IN NERN PART OF CO...BUT OBS ARE                     
 INDICATING ONLY BKN-OVC DECKS AROUND 5K FT OR SO. SOME LOCAL LOWER             
 CIGS APPEARING OVER THE PALMER. OBS MATCH UP PRETTY WELL WITH NAM              
 FCST...SO HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE NAM FOR LATER TIMING BUT WENT            
 WITH A NAM-GFS BLEND FOR AMTS. THIS PUTS BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP LATER           
 THIS AFTERNOON THRU EVENING. HAVE THEREFORE CUT POPS BACK THIS MORN            
 TO FALL IN LINE WITH MOS...WHICH IS ONLY ABOUT 10 PERCENT FOR                  
 MORNING POPS AT KCOS AND KMNH.                                                 
 MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH AMTS FROM THIS                         
 DISTURBANCE...AND SO HAVE ONLY TWEAKED ACCUMS THRU TONIGHT. AIR IS             
 PRETTY COLD TO THE NORTH...MT SNDGS FROM 00Z SHOW AROUND MINUS 20 AT           
 H7...SO WILL SEE HIGH SNOW RATIOS FROM WHATEVER FALLS. THE 1 TO 3              
 INCH RANGE STILL LOOKS REASONABLE...WITH SOME HIGHER AMTS OVER THE             
 UPSLOPE REGIONS AND OVER THE SRN SANGRES/CULEBRA RANGE. WITH                   
 SLIGHTLY LATER TIMING...DEEP ENOUGH SATURATED LAYER SHOULD BE FAR              
 ENOUGH BELOW FREEZING THAT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE FZNG PRECIP IS AN             
 ISSUE...SHOULD BE ALL LIGHT SNOW. SYSTEM MOVES THRU FAIRLY QUICKLY             
 AND SHOULD SEE PRECIP END FROM N TO S TONIGHT. 44                              
 LONG TERM...                                                                   
 SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY                                                          
 ..COLD WX WILL BE WITH US FOR AWHILE...                                        
 NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FCST PATTERN THIS PERIOD. ALL LONG RANGE                
 GUIDANCE INDICATES THE ARCTIC EXPRESS WILL BE RUNNING AT FULL FORCE            
 THROUGH THIS FCST PERIOD. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE WAVE AFTER            
 WAVE OF COLD WX WILL DIVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA...WITH THE COLDEST WX            
 MOVING INTO OUR REGION LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WITH EACH           
 WAVE...WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE FLUFFY SNOW.                 
 ALTHOUGH IT IS STIL A WEEK OFF...IT MUST BE EMPHASIZED THAT IF THE             
 LONG RANGE GUIDANCE LATE NEXT WEEK VERIFIES...WE MAY SEE BRUTALLY              
 COLD WX IN OUR REGION. CURRENTLY...OUR FCST FOR LATE WEEK HAS HIGHS            
 IN THE 20S AND 30S...BUT THESE VALUES MAY LIKELY BE DROPPED DOWN               
 DRAMATICALLY AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. ATTM...IT DOES NOT                 
 APPEAR ANY BIG SNOW FALL EVENTS WILL OCCUR...BUT GIVEN GOOD                    
 DENDRITIC GROWTH POTENTIAL...WE MAY SEE LOTS OF FLUFFY SNOW WHICH              
 MAY ACCUMULATE THROUGH THE WEEK. /34                                           
 PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
 NONE.                                                                          
 $$                                                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NONE.                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 44/34                                                                          
</pre> co                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                            
 1110 AM EST SAT JAN 27 2007                                                    
 .UPDATE...WEST NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS RAPIDLY INCREASING           
 IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE AREA AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...AND           
 ASSOCIATED POCKET OF MODERATE -DIVQ...APPROACH THE AREA. AT THE                
 SURFACE...ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM NEAR BUFFALO             
 NEW YORK UP THROUGH EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. MONTREAL RIVER CANADA               
 RADAR SHOWING BEST CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW/SURFACE                
 TROUGH REMAINING NORTH OF EASTERN UPPER AT THIS TIME. FORECAST                 
 CONCERNS REMAIN LAKE SNOW CHANCES AND AMOUNTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.              
 OVERALL LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS PRETTY DECENT WITH 12Z GREEN BAY                
 SOUNDING SHOWING NEARLY 7KFT INVERSION LEVEL AND MODEL GUIDANCE                
 SHOWING 850MB-700MB MOISTURE VALUES OF >80 PERCENT. ONE LIMITING               
 FACTOR...AT LEAST EARLY ON...REMAINS OVER WATER INSTABILITY WITH               
 GREEN BAY SOUNDING SHOWING 850MB TEMPERATURES OF ONLY                          
 -8C...PRODUCING A CORRESPONDING DELTA T VALUE OF 10C. HOWEVER...CAA            
 CONTINUES WITH APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE WITH LATEST RUC GUIDANCE                  
 SUGGESTING 16Z 850MB TEMPERATURES OF -11C OVER NORTHERN LAKE                   
 MICHIGAN AND -11C TO -13C OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS MATCHES             
 NICELY WITH RECENT RADAR RETURNS SEEN ON LOCAL RADARS. SYNOPTIC                
 SUPPORT ONLY INCREASES DURING THE AFTERNOON AS AFOREMENTIONED                  
 SHORTWAVE ROTATES OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN. INVERSION LEVELS BECOME              
 NEARLY NON EXISTENT (ACTUALLY AT TROPOPAUSE LEVEL OF 18KT) AND MID             
 LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT. STILL...INSTABILITY LEVELS REMAIN             
 MARGINAL WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES ONLY SLOWLY FALLING TO AROUND -12C            
 TO -14C BY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD HELP LIMIT INTENSITY OF SNOW                 
 SHOWERS. EARLY FORECAST OF UP TO 3 INCHES NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR               
 SHORELINE AND AN INCH OR TWO OVER FAVORED WEST NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS            
 OF THE NORTHERN LOWER APPEARS ON TARGET. HOWEVER...WILL CLOSELY                
 MONITOR ENHANCED CONVERGENT ZONE THAT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE             
 EASTERN U.P. AS SURFACE TROUGH ROTATES DOWN WITH PASSAGE OF                    
 SHORTWAVE. IF BANDS CAN STAY FOCUSED LONG ENOUGH ALONG THIS FEATURE            
 SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE INCREASED FOR PORTIONS OF              
 CHIPPEWA COUNTY. OTHERWISE...ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM MORNING              
 FORECAST WAS TO BUMP UP COVERAGE TO SCATTERED AND NUMEROUS OVER                
 EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BASED OFF RADAR RETURNS.                 
 WILL CONTINUE TO ANALYZE INCOMING DATA THIS AFTERNOON FOR A                    
 POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO AN ADVISORY OR WARNING FOR THOSE AREAS UNDER THE           
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.                                     
 MSB                                                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 437 AM EST SAT JAN 27 2007                        
 SFC WAVE SLOWLY SLIDING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS                   
 MORNING...WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND THE LEADING EDGE OF                  
 SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR TRAILING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST/NRN                
 PLAINS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALING SHORT WAVE COMING RIGHT BEHIND           
 PUSHING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ATTM. 00Z UPPER AIR PLOTS REVEALING               
 UPPER JET STREAK OVER BUFFALO LAST EVENING WHILE SECOND JET CORE               
 ACROSS CENTRAL MN. CAN INFER WEAK JET COUPLING/UPPER DIVERGENCE                
 ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN LAST EVENING...WHICH WITH COMBINED WITH LOW                
 LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC WAVE...MAY HAVE HELPED SPAWN OUR               
 LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE STORM DURING MID-LATE EVENING HOURS. FZDZ              
 HAD DIMINISHED AROUND MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...BUT HAVE SEEN               
 ANOTHER FLARE UP ON KAPX RADAR AND HERE AT THE OFFICE OVERNIGHT                
 (ALBEIT NOT NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY AS LAST EVENING).                   
 INITIAL FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND ONGOING WINTER WEATHER                
 ADVISORY GOOD THROUGH 8 AM (COVERING FZDZ). THEN...ATTENTION TURNS             
 TO A LAKE EFFECT EVENT LATER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND HEADLINE                 
 POSSIBILITIES.                                                                 
 TODAY...FIRST OFF WILL NEED TO ADDRESS ONGOING WSW. AS MENTIONED               
 ABOVE...ANOTHER LIGHT FLARE UP OF -FZDZ MATERIALIZED OVERNIGHT                 
 PRIMARILY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN (AS USUAL) PER RADAR DATA AND              
 SFC OBS. BUT LATEST RADAR TREND SUGGESTING -FZDZ AGAIN DWINDLING AND           
 THINK WE CAN GET AWAY WITH CANCELLING THE WSW WITH MORNING ZONE                
 ISSUANCE. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO PRECIP AND LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL             
 FOR THE REST OF TODAY. DECENT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND SHOT OF QG              
 UPWARD FORCING FORECAST TO SLIDE THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN DURING THE               
 AFTERNOON HOURS. MEANWHILE...SFC LOW SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST BUT WITH           
 A VERY SHARP LOW LEVEL TROUGH HANGING BACK ACROSS LAKE HURON AND               
 INTO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS            
 TROUGH COUPLED WITH QG UPWARD FORCING MOVING THROUGH/GRADUALLY                 
 INCREASING OVER LAKE INSTABILITY (DELTA T/S INCREASING THROUGH THE             
 TEENS)/AND ERODING INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL FOCUS BEST LAKE EFFECT               
 SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF THE UPPER PENINSULA FROM                 
 WHITEFISH POINT WESTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. BUT WITH THE MODEST                   
 LAKE-850 MB DELTA T/S WILL KEEP ACCUMULATIONS UNDER 3 INCHES FOR THE           
 DAY GREATEST AMOUNTS FOCUSED AROUND WHITEFISH POINT. ACROSS NRN                
 LOWER MICHIGAN...LOW LEVEL FLOW NOW TURNING INTO THE NW AND WILL               
 PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. WITH ARRIVAL OF UPSTREAM WAVE/ ASSOCIATED             
 DEEPER MOISTURE/AND ERODING INVERSION HEIGHTS...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS            
 TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON (CATEGORICAL POPS           
 IN NW LOWER AND ALONG THE PRESQUE ISLE SHORELINE. BUT AGAIN...WITH             
 ONLY MODEST LAKE INSTABILITY WILL KEEP ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 1 TO 2             
 INCH RANGE IN THE FAVORED AREAS.                                               
 TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GETS EVEN MORE INTERESTING AS SECONDARY               
 STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE (KICKER) DROPS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF              
 THE STATE HELPING TO DRAG SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT DOWN THROUGH NRN               
 MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR (850 MB              
 TEMPS DROPPING TO -16C TO -18C BY SUNDAY) OVERSPREADING THE STATE.             
 ALTHOUGH STRONGEST FORCING WITH THE WAVE SLIDES ACROSS THE SRN PART            
 OF THE STATE...CAN ENVISION AN AREA OF SNOWFALL SLIDING SOUTHWARD              
 WITH THE TROUGH OVERNIGHT...WITH INTENSITIES ENHANCED BY THE LAKES             
 AS IT PASSES THROUGH...AND PRODUCING A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES FOR MUCH            
 OF THE AREA. LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY ACTUALLY IMPACT BOTH THE LAKE                
 MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON SHORELINES...TACKING ON ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS.            
 TRANSITION TO A NORTH FLOW LAKE EFFECT EVENT FOLLOWS LATE OVERNIGHT            
 AND THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE SOME DRYING COMMENCES IN THE                 
 AFTERNOON. LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY                  
 MORNING LOOKING GOOD FOR MOD-HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBILITIES AS           
 DELTA T/S INCREASE TO AROUND 20C COUPLED WITH WEAK OR NON EXISTANT             
 INVERSION HEIGHTS AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND. RIGHT               
 NOW...AREAS AROUND LEELANAU COUNTY AND GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH TO             
 MANISTEE LOOKING MOST FAVORED ASSUMING MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON            
 THE FLOW REGIME BEHIND THE FRONT. AND COUPLED WITH THE OVERNIGHT               
 SNOWFALL...ACCUMULATIONS APPROACHING WARNING CRITERIA A GOOD BET BY            
 SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THOSE AREAS. PROBABLY CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT              
 ISSUING A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ALTHOUGH           
 LATER SHIFTS MAY OPT TO TRANSITION WATCH INTO ADVISORIES IF SHIFTING           
 LOW LEVEL WINDS DO NOT COOPERATE.                                              
 MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGE IN THE ONGOING PATTERN THROUGH            
 MIDWEEK AND BEYOND. BLOCKING RIDGE PATTERN IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC              
 ONLY STRENGTHENS FURTHER...WHILE DOWNSTREAM LONG WAVE TROUGHING                
 ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NAOM DEEPENS. WITHIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH           
 PATTERN...SERIES OF SHORT WAVES EXPECTED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION           
 DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK EACH SERVING TO REINFORCE THE COLD AIR OVER           
 THE GREAT LAKES. IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOSING              
 INTO THE REGION...MAY GET A BIT OF A BREAK (AT LEAST FROM HEADLINES)           
 ON MONDAY WITH JUST CHANCY POPS FOR THE SNOW BELTS. NEXT SHORT WAVE            
 CURRENTLY FORECAST TO DROP THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY BRINGING              
 MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW. POSSIBLY ANOTHER BREAK FOR WEDNESDAY BEHIND              
 THIS SYSTEM...BEFORE YET ANOTHER WAVE ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY.                  
 ADAM                                                                           
 &&                                                                             
 .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH...TONIGHT            
      THROUGH SUNDAY...MIZ020-025-026-031.                                      
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                          
 615 AM EST SAT JAN 27 2007                                                     
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 MAIN FCST CONCERN IS LAKE EFFECT EVENT TODAY THRU SUN.                         
 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDING           
 FROM JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR TO ND/MT. 00Z SOUNDINGS AT CYQD/CWPL              
 SHOWED NEAR SATURATION TO AROUND 600MB IN THE VCNTY OF THIS                    
 TROF...AND IMPRESSIVE 12HR 500MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 200M/130M WERE                
 NOTED AT KINL/CWPL RESPECTIVELY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS DIVING S THRU           
 CNTRL MANITOBA. IT IS THIS FEATURE THAT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LAKE            
 ENHANCEMENT LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES TROF             
 ASSOCIATED WITH FIRST SHORTWAVE EXTENDS FROM LAKE HURON ACROSS ERN             
 LAKE SUPERIOR TO VCNTY OF LAKE NIPIGON. WITH MOST OF THE FCST AREA             
 TO THE W OF SFC LOW PRES TROF...NW WINDS ARE THE RULE EARLY THIS               
 MORNING. LAKE ENHANCMENT HAS TAKEN OFF IN A ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL                  
 CONVERGENCE FROM NRN ONTONAGON COUNTY/CNTRL HOUGHTON COUNTY INTO               
 BARAGA COUNTY. REFLECTIVITIES HAVE BEEN ABOVE 30DBZ AT TIMES.                  
 HOWEVER...RECENT SFC OBS SHOW THE CONVERGENCE WEAKENING WHICH SHOULD           
 RESULT IN SOME DIMINISHING OF THIS SNOW AREA. ALTHOUGH 850MB TEMP ON           
 00Z KINL SOUNDING WAS ONLY -10C...-15C/-18C WERE NOTED AT CWPL/CYQD.           
 00Z MODEL RUNS INDICATE THAT THE 00Z/26JAN NAM WAS ACTUALLY ON THE             
 RIGHT TRACK YESTERDAY WITH ITS SLOWER MOVEMENT OF SFC TROF S ACROSS            
 LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. TIMING ON THE LATEST RUNS IS VERY SIMILAR...BUT           
 THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS OF WIND STRUCTURE AROUND             
 SFC TROF/COLD FRONT. WILL LEAN STRONGLY TOWARD RUC13 AND IN                    
 PARTICULAR THE LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION WRF-ARW AS THEY INDICATE A MUCH           
 SHARPER WIND SHIFT WHICH IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH TROFS PASSING              
 ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. LOCAL WRF-ARW TIMING BRINGS TROF TO THE                  
 KEWEENAW LATE MORNING AND TO THE REMAINING COUNTIES BORDERING LAKE             
 SUPERIOR IN THE 18Z-21Z TIME FRAME. WOULD LIKE TO SEE A SOMEWHAT               
 COLDER AIRMASS WITH LES ALREADY OCCURING ON THE LAKE FOR MORE                  
 CERTAINTY ON A BAND OF HVY SNOW TO ACCOMPANY WIND SHIFT.                       
 HOWEVER...MODELS DROP 850MB TEMPS TO -13C E AND -18C W ACROSS THE              
 LAKE BY LATE MORNING WHICH IS CERTAINLY SUFFICIENT FOR LAKE                    
 ENHANCEMENT WITH INITIAL MIDLEVEL TROF PASSAGE. W END SHOULD SEE               
 HEAVIEST SNOW WITH NOTABLY COLDER AIR ACCOMPANYING SFC TROF PASSAGE.           
 WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF 1-3IN/HR SNOW RATES             
 THERE AS WIND SHIFT PASSES.                                                    
 DEEP MOISTURE PROFILE NOTED ON CWPL/CYQD SOUNDINGS WILL THEN SET THE           
 STAGE FOR QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF HEALTHY N-S ORIENTED LES BANDS IN THE           
 WAKE OF SFC TROF/COLD FRONT. AS THAT SETS UP...ATTENTION IS ON                 
 MANITOBA SHORTWAVE. WITH SHORTWAVE ON ALMOST A DUE S TRACK...POCKET            
 OF DECENT DEEP LAYER FORCING PER 850-500MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL            
 IMPACT MAINLY WRN LAKE SUPERIOR FROM LATE AFTN UNTIL 06-09Z.                   
 THUS...EXPECT VERY HVY SNOW TO OCCUR OVER GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON COUNTIES           
 LATE AFTN/EVENING UNDER FAVORABLE NRLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. CONFIDENCE IS           
 HIGH THAT THE AREA FROM IRONWOOD TO WAKEFIELD...BERGLAND AND THE               
 PORCUPINE MOUNTAINS WILL EASILY SEE A FOOT OF SNOW BY DAYBREAK SUN.            
 WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SPOTS IN THAT AREA REACH 18                
 INCHES. THE NCNTL FCST AREA WILL ONLY GET BRUSHED BY THE FORCING               
 FROM SHORTWAVE...BUT DEEP MOISTURE UPWARDS OF 10KFT AND BRIEF LACK             
 OF INVERSION MID/LATE EVENING STILL ARGUES FOR 10 OR MORE INCHES               
 OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY SUNRISE SUN. BASED ON SLIGHTLY E OF DUE N           
 LOW-LEVEL WIND FLOW DURING PERIOD OF DEEP MOISTURE/ENHANCEMENT FROM            
 SHORTWAVE...EXPECT GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF           
 ERN BARAGA COUNTY TO ISHPEMING/NEGAUNEE AND SKANDIA. WILL NEED TO              
 WATCH THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW AS N WIND WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER                  
 TERRAIN FROM AROUND PHOENIX TOWARD COPPER HARBOR. ACCUMULATIONS                
 SHOULD NEAR 10 INCHES THERE. EXPECT SOMEWHAT LIGHER TOTALS ACROSS              
 THE REST OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AS N WIND IS NOT AS FAVORABLE S             
 OF PHOENIX. FOR THE ADVY AREA OF DELTA/NRN SCHOOLCRAFT...HAVE                  
 CONCERN ACCUMULATIONS MAY FALL A BIT SHORT OF CRITERIA SINCE 010-020           
 WIND DIRECTION DURING ENHANCEMENT PERIOD IS NOT IDEAL FOR THAT AREA.           
 STILL...POTENTIAL IS SUFFICIENT TO LET ADVYS RIDE.                             
 BTWN 09-12Z...DEEP MOISTURE PULLS OUT QUICKLY AND INVERSION CRASHES            
 DOWN TO 4-5KFT PER NAM/GFS FCST SOUNDINGS. SO MDT/HVY LES SHOULD               
 RAPIDLY DIMINISH WITH MORE SEPARATION DEVELOPING BTWN BANDS. WINDS             
 WILL ALSO BECOME MORE ANTICYLONIC AS THEY BACK THRU THE DAY SUN TO A           
 NW DIRECTION. SO...ACCUMULATIONS SUN SHOULD BE LIGHT ON THE ORDER OF           
 1 TO 4 INCHES WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OVER THE E DUE TO LONGER               
 FETCH PARTIALLY COUNTERACTING THE INCOMING DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS. WOULD           
 NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE HEADLINES CANCELLED OR DOWNGRADED SUN BEFORE           
 EXPIRATION TIMES ARE REACHED.                                                  
 LIGHT LES WILL PERSIST SUN NIGHT THRU TUE UNDER A MOSTLY NW                    
 LOW-LEVEL WIND FLOW REGIME WITH 850MB TEMPS HOVERING GENERALLY                 
 AROUND -20C. LOW INVERSION/DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO ONLY                
 LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. THERE MAY BE SOME PERIODS WHERE WINDS WILL BE             
 LIGHT ENOUGH PER NAM/GFS TO ALLOW FOR LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE ZONES              
 TO DEVELOP. THIS WOULD GIVE LES A BOOST...BUT THE OVERALL DRY                  
 ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW INVERSIONS WILL STILL BE A SIGNIFICANT LIMITING           
 FACTOR.                                                                        
 &&                                                                             
 .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SUN MIZ002-009.                       
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING 1 PM TODAY TO 1 AM EST MON MIZ004>006.               
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST SUN MIZ001-003.                     
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUN MIZ084.                          
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY 1 PM TODAY UNTIL 1 AM EST MON MIZ013-085.           
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR.                                   
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 ROLFSON                                                                        
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                        
 915 AM CST SAT JAN 27 2007                                                     
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 DYNAMICALLY THERE IS A COUPLE OF INTERESTING FEATURES THAT ARE                 
 CONTROLLING THE SENSIBLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND              
 MISSOURI OZARKS REGION.  A WELL DEVELOPED UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY               
 1515Z TRACKING ACROSS OKLAHOMA.  A BAND OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION              
 FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...IS BEING DRIVEN BY               
 BOTH PRESSURE ADVECTIVE PROCESSES AND RISING POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE             
 SURFACES WITH RESPECT TO TIME.  OVERLAYING THE RUC 295 POTENTIAL               
 TEMPERATURE SURFACE ANALYSIS WITH RADAR SUGGESTS THAT THIS ENHANCED            
 AREA OF FORCING IS BASICALLY AN ESTABLISHED TROWAL POSITIONED                  
 NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE LOW CENTER.                                             
 NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLAMMING DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN               
 PLAINS WILL CAUSE THE OKLAHOMA LOW TO WEAKEN WITH TIME AS IT SHIFTS            
 INTO A CONFLUENT PATTERN OVER THE ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI OZARKS.                
 THEREFORE THIS BAND OF MODERATE PRECIP OVER OKLAHOMA SHOULD EXPERIENCE         
 WEAKENING THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS IT SHIFTS INTO ARKANSAS AND            
 POSSIBLY SOUTHERN MISSOURI.  WILL KEEP A CLOSE ON RADAR TRENDS...BUT           
 FOR NOW SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO WEATHER AND POP GRIDS ARE NOT                   
 ANTICIPATED.                                                                   
 OTHERWISE SOME FLURRIES AND VERY LIGHT SNOW ARE OCCURRING OVER                 
 SEVERAL AREAS LATE THIS MORNING.  THIS WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH...AND           
 WILL LIKELY TAPER OFF BY THIS EVENING.                                         
 CRAMER                                                                         
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT THE SPRINGFIELD              
 AND JOPLIN TERMINALS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST CEILINGS WILL PERSIST WITH            
 CLOUD DECKS AROUND 6-8 KFT. SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY CREATE           
 SOME MVFR CONDITIONS BUT THESE WILL AFFECT AREAS MAINLY TO THE SOUTH           
 OF THE SPRINGFIELD AND JOPLIN TERMINALS. THE CLOUDINESS WILL                   
 DECREASE AFTER 00Z.                                                            
 GAEDE                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 MO...NONE.                                                                     
 KS...NONE.                                                                     
 $$                                                                             
 WFO SGF                                                                        
</pre> mo                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                             
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                         
 1059 AM EST SAT JAN 27 2007                                                    
 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                 
 WM FNT DEFINITELY MAKING ITS PRESENCE FELT ACROSS WNY. SFC LOW                 
 SITS NR LK HURON WITH WEAKER LOW CENTERED NR KBUF. ASSOC FNT                   
 STRETCHED FROM APPROX KBUF-KDSV-KELM. TIGHT TEMP GRADIENT WITH 28F             
 AT PENN-YAN TO 15F AT SYRACUSE. GREATEST PRESSURE FALLS CENTERED               
 OFF THE JERSEY SHORE INDICATES THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY MOVE SOUTH               
 AND EAST...SOUTH OF SYRACUSE. THIS WOULD KEEP NRN ZONES IN COLD                
 AIR ALL DAY AND HAVE CUT BACK ON TEMPS TO SHOW VERY LITTLE DIURNAL             
 CHANGE. AM NOT EXTREMELY IMPRESSED WITH MUCH WARMUP TODAY AND HAVE             
 TRIMMED BACK TEMPS NEARLY EVERYWHERE.                                          
 AS FOR FZRA ADVISORY...STILL RECEIVING NUMEROUS REPORTS OF SLICK               
 ROADS ASSOC WITH GLAZE. WILL KEEP ADVISORY UP THRU AT LEAST 18Z                
 AND RE-EVALUATE AT THAT TIME. SNDGS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE BEFORE              
 THEN WITH CLD TOP TEMPS REMAINING WARM. ECHOES ON RADAR HAVE                   
 WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY IN THE PAST HOUR AND OBS HAVE GENERALLY                  
 CHANGED OVER TO ALL SNOW. EXPECT FZDZ TO BECOME LESS LIKELY BY                 
 AFTERNOON BUT WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHGS TO POPS AT THIS TIME.                     
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 /ISSUED 842 AM EST SAT JAN 27 2007/                                            
 SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
 HAVE HOISTED FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE                
 AREA...MAINLY EAST OF A SYRACUSE TO CORTLAND TO WALTON LINE. HAVE              
 RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS THIS MORNING OF SLICK ROADS IN THESE                  
 AREAS DUE TO LIGHT FZDZ/FZRA. PATCHY FZDZ EXPECTED ELSEWHERE BUT               
 MEASURABLE PCPN LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO I-81 CORRIDOR AND EAST.               
 RADAR SHOWING WK RETURNS INDICATIVE OF VERY FINE PARTICLES. LIGHT              
 SNOW MIXING IN AT TIMES BUT MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE GLAZING AND NOT               
 RELATED TO SNOW ACCUMS. THUS...HAVE OPTED FOR FZRA ADVISORY UNTIL              
 1 PM. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND ADJUST ADVISORY AREA IF NEEDED.             
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 642 AM EST SAT JAN 27 2007/                                            
 AVIATION /12Z-12Z/...                                                          
 A WEAK SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON WILL MOVE                
 ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH ONLY WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED                 
 WITH THIS FEATURE PRECIP WILL BE LIMITED AND COULD EITHER BE                   
 SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SNOW. IN GENERAL CONDITIONS                   
 THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MVFR DUE TO CIGS. CIGS WILL LOWER                   
 BY MID MORNING WITH VSBY RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR AT KSYR THRU 18Z,                
 DUE TO FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW. MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS                 
 DUE TO FOG ARE ALSO EXPECTED AT KITH/KBGM BTW 14Z-18Z. WINDS WILL              
 REMAIN BTW 5-10 KNOTS, PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING THEN             
 SOUTHERLY BY MID MORNING SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS                      
 AFTERNOON TO WESTERLY TOWARD EVENING. LATE IN THE PERIOD                       
 RESTRICTIONS IN VSBY DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY AT KSYR/KITH/KBGM.         
 RRM                                                                            
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 418 AM EST SAT JAN 27 2007/                                            
 SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                          
 QUIET WEATHER WEEKEND WITH WARMER TEMPS AND LIGHT PRECIP. ATTM                 
 UNDER A WEAK UL RIDGE. WAA AHEAD OF A SFC LOW MOVG ESE FROM                    
 MICHIGAN. IN WEAK OVERRUNNING WITH SOME LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED RADAR              
 ECHOES MOSTLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. OBS IN SRN                
 ONTARIO AND RUC SHOW SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. NO MEASURABLE.               
 DENDRITE ZONE ABOVE SATURATED LOW LEVELS. MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS                
 LACKING SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANYTHING ON THIS AND CONT THE CHC FZDZ               
 IN GRIDS AND ZONES THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL CROSS THE CWA THIS              
 AFTN LEAVING BEHIND A WEAK TROF FOR TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW NEAR              
 THE LOW TRACK BUT SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS WITH TEMPS               
 IN THE 30S. ALSO BEHIND THE LOW WEAK CAA STARTS. QPF AGAIN LIGHT               
 TONIGHT.                                                                       
 ON SUNDAY A SHORT WAVE DIVES SE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THEN THE MID              
 ATLANTIC. THIS WILL SET OFF SOME SNOW SHOWERS WITH DEEPER                      
 MOISTURE. AMOUNTS AGAIN LIGHT WITH BEST DYNAMICS S AND E.                      
 SUNDAY NIGHT FLOW GOES AGAIN TO NW WHILE 850 TEMPS GO TO -20C.                 
 LAKE INSTABILITY GOES EXTREME. FLOW STARTS OUT NW SO MULTIBANDS.               
 ON MONDAY A SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH AND SHIFTS THE FLOW AROUND TO             
 A MORE FAVORABLE 290 TO 300 FLOW SENDING IT INTO SYR. SNOW AMOUNTS             
 COULD BE ENOUGH FOR A LES ADVISORY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TAC                    
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 331 PM EST FRI JAN 26 2007/                                            
 LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                          
 COLD PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS OFF THE                
 LAKES AND AN OCCASIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCE OR REINFORCING COLD WAVE              
 MOVING THROUGH. ON TUESDAY...WEAK LOW PRES AREA WILL MOVE ACROSS               
 THE LAKES AND NEW YORK BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND                   
 FLURRIES. HIGH PRES CENTER WILL PASS ACROSS PA ON WED WITH WLY                 
 WINDS OFF THE LAKES. ANOTHER LOW PRES AREA MOVES ACROSS THE LAKES              
 INTO SE CANADA THU BRINGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH NY AND PA               
 THU NIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NY...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                  
      NYZ009-018-036-037-044>046-057-062.                                       
 PA...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SHORT TERM...PB                                                                
</pre> ny                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                             
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                         
 842 AM EST SAT JAN 27 2007                                                     
 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                 
 HAVE HOISTED FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE                
 AREA...MAINLY EAST OF A SYRACUSE TO CORTLAND TO WALTON LINE. HAVE              
 RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS THIS MORNING OF SLICK ROADS IN THESE                  
 AREAS DUE TO LIGHT FZDZ/FZRA. PATCHY FZDZ EXPECTED ELSEWHERE BUT               
 MEASURABLE PCPN LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO I-81 CORRIDOR AND EAST.               
 RADAR SHOWING WK RETURNS INDICATIVE OF VERY FINE PARTICLES. LIGHT              
 SNOW MIXING IN AT TIMES BUT MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE GLAZING AND NOT               
 RELATED TO SNOW ACCUMS. THUS...HAVE OPTED FOR FZRA ADVISORY UNTIL              
 1 PM. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND ADJUST ADVISORY AREA IF NEEDED.             
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 /ISSUED 642 AM EST SAT JAN 27 2007/                                            
 AVIATION /12Z-12Z/...                                                          
 A WEAK SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON WILL MOVE                
 ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH ONLY WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED                 
 WITH THIS FEATURE PRECIP WILL BE LIMITED AND COULD EITHER BE                   
 SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SNOW. IN GENERAL CONDITIONS                   
 THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MVFR DUE TO CIGS. CIGS WILL LOWER                   
 BY MID MORNING WITH VSBY RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR AT KSYR THRU 18Z,                
 DUE TO FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW. MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS                 
 DUE TO FOG ARE ALSO EXPECTED AT KITH/KBGM BTW 14Z-18Z. WINDS WILL              
 REMAIN BTW 5-10 KNOTS, PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING THEN             
 SOUTHERLY BY MID MORNING SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS                      
 AFTERNOON TO WESTERLY TOWARD EVENING. LATE IN THE PERIOD                       
 RESTRICTIONS IN VSBY DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY AT KSYR/KITH/KBGM.         
 RRM                                                                            
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 418 AM EST SAT JAN 27 2007/                                            
 SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                          
 QUIET WEATHER WEEKEND WITH WARMER TEMPS AND LIGHT PRECIP. ATTM                 
 UNDER A WEAK UL RIDGE. WAA AHEAD OF A SFC LOW MOVG ESE FROM                    
 MICHIGAN. IN WEAK OVERRUNNING WITH SOME LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED RADAR              
 ECHOES MOSTLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. OBS IN SRN                
 ONTARIO AND RUC SHOW SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. NO MEASURABLE.               
 DENDRITE ZONE ABOVE SATURATED LOW LEVELS. MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS                
 LACKING SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANYTHING ON THIS AND CONT THE CHC FZDZ               
 IN GRIDS AND ZONES THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL CROSS THE CWA THIS              
 AFTN LEAVING BEHIND A WEAK TROF FOR TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW NEAR              
 THE LOW TRACK BUT SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS WITH TEMPS               
 IN THE 30S. ALSO BEHIND THE LOW WEAK CAA STARTS. QPF AGAIN LIGHT               
 TONIGHT.                                                                       
 ON SUNDAY A SHORT WAVE DIVES SE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THEN THE MID              
 ATLANTIC. THIS WILL SET OFF SOME SNOW SHOWERS WITH DEEPER                      
 MOISTURE. AMOUNTS AGAIN LIGHT WITH BEST DYNAMICS S AND E.                      
 SUNDAY NIGHT FLOW GOES AGAIN TO NW WHILE 850 TEMPS GO TO -20C.                 
 LAKE INSTABILITY GOES EXTREME. FLOW STARTS OUT NW SO MULTIBANDS.               
 ON MONDAY A SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH AND SHIFTS THE FLOW AROUND TO             
 A MORE FAVORABLE 290 TO 300 FLOW SENDING IT INTO SYR. SNOW AMOUNTS             
 COULD BE ENOUGH FOR A LES ADVISORY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TAC                    
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 331 PM EST FRI JAN 26 2007/                                            
 LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                          
 COLD PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS OFF THE                
 LAKES AND AN OCCASIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCE OR REINFORCING COLD WAVE              
 MOVING THROUGH. ON TUESDAY...WEAK LOW PRES AREA WILL MOVE ACROSS               
 THE LAKES AND NEW YORK BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND                   
 FLURRIES. HIGH PRES CENTER WILL PASS ACROSS PA ON WED WITH WLY                 
 WINDS OFF THE LAKES. ANOTHER LOW PRES AREA MOVES ACROSS THE LAKES              
 INTO SE CANADA THU BRINGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH NY AND PA               
 THU NIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NY...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                  
      NYZ009-018-036-037-044>046-057-062.                                       
 PA...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SHORT TERM...PB                                                                
</pre> ny                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV                                               
 909 AM PST SAT JAN 27 2007                                                     
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE SIERRA FROM TAHOE SOUTH AND                     
 MODIFIED THE SKY COVER FORECAST FOR TODAY. RUC SHOWS INCREASING                
 INSTABILITY WITH A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE              
 COUPLET ALONG THE SIERRA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW AND A WAVE                  
 ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LOW MOVES INLAND.                                     
 MAY NEED TO INCREASE SNOW SHOWER CHANCES TONIGHT AS MOISTURE                   
 INCREASES AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT DECREASE. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS              
 WOULD BE LIGHT. BRONG                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 335 AM PST SAT JAN 27 2007                           
 .SHORT TERM...                                                                 
 ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE SIERRA AND NUDGED           
 DOWN HIGHS TOWARDS MOS THE NEXT FEW DAYS (REASONABLE CONSENSUS AMONG           
 MOS GUIDANCE). OTHERWISE...FEW CHANGES TO THE GRIDS. A STABLE REX              
 BLOCK PATTERN WILL KEEP AN UPPER LOW WEST OF MONTEREY BAY WOBBLING             
 AROUND NEAR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE           
 DRIFTING SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.                                       
 A DEFORMATION AXIS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER LOW WEST OF                   
 MONTEREY BAY IS SLIDING INTO NEVADA THIS MORNING. AT THIS POINT...             
 THE AXIS IS PRODUCING ONLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN NEVADA.              
 AS THE DEFORMATION BAND EDGES SOUTH TO AROUND HIGHWAY 50 THIS                  
 EVENING WITH THE UPPER LOW WOBBLING CLOSER TO THE COAST (WITH -25C             
 AT 500 MB)...SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SIERRA. THE GFS              
 INDICATES LIFTED INDEXES OF AROUND 0.5C LATE THIS AFTERNOON...FOR A            
 WEAKLY CONVECTIVE ELEMENT TO THE SHOWERS (THERE WERE A FEW TINY                
 CUMULUS ON FRIDAY WITH -23C AT 500 MB). THE SIERRA SHOWER THREAT               
 CONTINUES SUNDAY WITH THE LOW PARKED NEAR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA               
 COAST.                                                                         
 SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO RETROGRADE               
 UNDER THE AMPLIFIED WESTERN RIDGE FOR STABILIZING CONDITIONS AND A             
 VERY LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE SIERRA. MONDAY NIGHT...THE GFS               
 THINKS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL AFFECT PERHAPS MONO AND MINERAL               
 COUNTIES. AS THIS IS QUITE SKETCHY AT THIS POINT...I LEFT THE                  
 RUNNING GHOST POPS. SNYDER                                                     
 .LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...                                         
 WEAK UPPER LOW OFF CENTRAL CA CST DRIFTS FURTHER S ON TUESDAY NUDGED           
 BY UPSTREAM S/WV DROPPING S ACROSS IDAHO. MODELS INDICATE SUFFICIENT           
 RH/QPF AND INSTABILITY IN NE QUAD OF UPPER LOW TO MENTION SLGT                 
 CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER MONO COUNTY TUES AFTN. UPPER LOW TRACKS            
 FURTHER S INTO SRN CA BY WED WITH DRIER NELY FLOW ACROSS WRN NV AND            
 SIERRA. CONTINUED DRY AND A LITTLE WARMER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS               
 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS ALONG W COAST. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS              
 WITH ARCTIC AIR FORECAST TO STAY E OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. STRONG SFC           
 BASED INVERSIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE DURING PERIOD FOR COLD           
 MORNINGS AND POOR MIXING IN AFTERNOON. TEMPS REMAINING NEAR SEASONAL           
 NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY. CYLKE                                                 
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED SNOW           
 SHOWERS WITH HIGHER MTNS OBSCURED ALONG SIERRA SOUTH OF LAKE TAHOE             
 IN THE AFTN.  CYLKE                                                            
 &&                                                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NV...NONE.                                                                     
 CA...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO                                                        
</pre> ca                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                           
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                            
 417 PM EST SAT JAN 27 2007                                                     
 .DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES...COMBINED WITH LAKE ENHANCED               
 SURFACE TROUGH...CREATING A VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR THE NEAR             
 TERM. MID AFTERNOON SURFACE/SATELLITE/RUC/AND REGIONAL RADAR                   
 ANALYSIS SHOWS SHOWS FIRST OF TWO SHORTWAVES TO INFLUENCE NORTHERN             
 MICHIGAN WEATHER RACING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WITH           
 THE SECOND DROPPING INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. AT THE                            
 SURFACE...ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHWEST FROM LOW                  
 PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIAN BAY TO SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR.            
 LAKE INDUCED MESOLOW LOCATED OVER CHIPPEWA COUNTY MOVING SLOWLY                
 SOUTHEAST ALONG SURFACE TROUGH IN RESPONSE TO FIRST SHORTWAVE. OVER            
 WATER INSTABILITY ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES AS CAA             
 CONTINUES TO DROP 850MB TEMPERATURES...WITH 20Z RUC40 ANALYSIS                 
 SHOWING TEMPERATURES OF -13C OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND EASTERN           
 LAKE SUPERIOR. WEST NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS...SOME           
 VERY INTENSE WITH SNOWFALL RATES AT AN INCH PER HOUR (EVEN HAD                 
 THUNDERSNOW REPORTED WITH THE 20Z HOUGHTON LAKE OBSERVATION)                   
 CONTINUE TO CUT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. FARTHER                
 NORTH...KMQT AND MONTREAL RIVER RADARS SHOWING INTENSE BANDS OVER              
 CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BECOMING INCREASINGLY INFLUENCED             
 BY MESOLOW CIRCULATION WITH NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED BANDS ON           
 BACKSIDE OF CIRCULATION INTERSECTING THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE               
 WILL WEST OF CHIPPEWA COUNTY. FORECAST CONCERN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY              
 CENTERS ON AMOUNT AND LOCATION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS.                           
 TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN CLEARS THE FORECAST            
 AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN SURFACE TROUGH            
 SAGS SOUTH...REACHING A POSITION FROM NEAR ALPENA TO THE TIP OF THE            
 LEELANAU COUNTY BY 06Z. SIDING WITH THE SLOWER NAM-WRF AND LATEST              
 RUC IN THIS REGARD WITH MUCH BETTER INITIALIZATION OF SURFACE                  
 FEATURES. FLOW OVER NORTHERN LOWER SLOWLY VEERS FROM WEST NORTHWEST            
 EARLY THIS EVENING TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY BY MIDNIGHT.                          
 THERMODYNAMICALLY SPEAKING...LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS OVER NORTHERN              
 LAKE MICHIGAN REMAIN IMPRESSIVE THIS EVENING WITH NAM-WRF AND BUFKIT           
 ANALYSIS SHOWING 850MB-700MB >80 PERCENT...DELTA T/S INCREASING TO             
 17C...LAKE INDUCED CAPE OF 370J/KG AND A LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM              
 LEVEL OF 8.5KFT. GOOD CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW ALSO REMAINS OVER                
 NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL ENHANCED                  
 CONVERGENCE AS TROUGH APPROACHES. HOWEVER...SOME KEY NEGATIVES TO              
 MENTION. BANDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT TRANSITORY AS WINDS SLOWLY VEER AND            
 LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE SETS IN BEHIND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE.                     
 THUS...NOT EXPECTING THINGS TO GET TOO OUT OF HAND THIS EVENING OVER           
 NORTHWEST MICHIGAN WITH A GENERAL 2 TO 5 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION                
 EXPECTED OVER FAVORED AREAS...WITH MOST OF THAT FALLING LATE THIS              
 AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A LAKE             
 SNOW ADVISORY TARGETING WHAT IS TYPICALLY KNOW AS THE BIG FIVE                 
 COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST MICHIGAN. OVER THE EASTERN UPPER...WINDS                 
 QUICKLY COME AROUND TO NORTH AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST...PUTTING THEM           
 OUT OF PLAY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT. THINGS GET MORE                   
 INTERESTING LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS VEER TO NORTHERLY AND INSTABILITY           
 INCREASES OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. AREA ALSO GETS CLIPPED BY               
 NORTHERN FRINGES OF LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT AS MINNESOTA                  
 SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. LAKE SNOW PARAMETERS REMAIN            
 IMPRESSIVE WITH LAKE INDUCED CAPE AT NEARLY 500J/KG...EQUILIBRIUM              
 LEVELS TO 10KFT...UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH THE CBL...AND OMEGA              
 CENTERED IN THE PRIMARY DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE FOR SEVERAL HOURS                
 AFTER 06Z. PRIMARY CONCERN IS WINDS AS THEY LOOK TO SWING AROUND TO            
 SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. IF THIS OCCURS..SNOW BANDS MAY                
 REMAIN OFFSHORE. ALSO...BEST SYNOPTIC SUPPORT DOES PASS WELL                   
 SOUTH...REDUCING ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL. STILL...COULD SEE A COUPLE             
 HOURS OF INCH PER HOUR RATES OVER LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE           
 COUNTIES. OVER LAND TRAJECTORY SHOULD LIMIT RATES SOMEWHAT FOR                 
 MANISTEE COUNTY. NOT FORGETTING THE NORTHEAST LOWER...AS WINDS COME            
 AROUND NORTHEAST COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES ALONG THE LAKE HURON                
 SHORELINE.                                                                     
 SUNDAY...SYNOPTIC SUPPORT PASSES OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE MORNING            
 WITH RAPID MID LEVEL DRYING OVERSPREADING NORTHERN MICHIGAN DURING             
 THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IMPRESSIVE NORTH FLOW LAKE EFFECT LOOKS TO            
 CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL THIS OCCURS WITH LAKE INDUCED CAPE            
 INCREASING TO 550J/KG AND EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS INCREASING TO 11KFT.              
 EXPECT SEVERAL MORE INCHES OVER AFOREMENTIONED AREAS CENTERED NEAR             
 AND WEST OF GRAND TRAVERSE BAY. THUS...FEEL WARNINGS ARE WARRANTED             
 FOR BENZIE...LEELANAU...AND GRAND TRAVERSE COUNTIES WITH 24 HOUR               
 AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO APPROACH LOW END WARNING CRITERIA WITH ADVISORY            
 CRITERIA BEING MET IN MANISTEE COUNTY. LATER IN THE DAY...WINDS BACK           
 AROUND NORTHWEST AND FLOW GOES ANTICYCLONIC AS SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS            
 TO BUILD IN. SNOW SHOWERS WILL ONCE AGAIN BEGIN TO SPREAD FARTHER              
 INLAND...ALBEIT SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER.                                          
 MSB                                                                            
 LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...COLD WEATHER WILL                  
 PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...AS BLOCKING WEST RIDGE PATTERN             
 UP THE WESTERN NORTH AMERICA COAST WILL KEEP LONGWAVE TROUGHING                
 ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A            
 SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES             
 REGION...AND PERIODS/BOUTS OF LAKE EFFECT AND LAKE ENHANCED SNOW               
 SHOWERS. TIMING OF THESE DIFFERENT SNOW EVENTS WILL BE DEFINED WITH            
 MORE PRECISION AS EACH EVENT NEARS. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN COULD LEAD            
 TO BETTER/GROWING SNOWPACK FOR NRN MICHIGAN.                                   
 SUNDAY NIGHT...MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC LOW WILL BE SE OF THE             
 REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL HAVE DRUG SFC TROUGHING THROUGH THE           
 AREA.. LEFT BEHIND WILL BE A DRIER NW 1000-850MB WIND REGIME...WHICH           
 WILL CONTINUE TO BACK WEST AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND MORE ANTI-                 
 CYCLONIC FLOW MOVES IN. LAKE INDUCED TROUGHING IS SUGGESTED BY BOTH            
 GFS/NAM TO REDEVELOP FROM EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TO NRN LAKE HURON              
 FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE SEEING THAT THE                 
 LAND/WATER TEMPERATURE CONTRAST WILL BE INCREASING...AS H8 TEMPS               
 DROP TO -20C. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF SNOW EXPECTED. UNDER THIS SYNOPTIC            
 PATTERN EVOLUTION...SNOWFLAKES WILL BE GETTING PROGRESSIVELY SMALLER           
 WITH COOLING TEMPS ALOFT...PLUS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES ARE            
 UNIMPRESSIVE...AND WE WILL BE LOSING THE ADDITIONAL CRYSTAL GROWTH             
 IN THE LOWER LEVELS DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPERATURES. THIS EXPECTED              
 EVEN THOUGH INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BE DECENT FOR A PORTION OF THE              
 EVENING AT 5500 FEET. MAY BE A BIT TRICKY ACROSS CHIPPEWA IF THE               
 LAKE INDUCED TROUGHING ENHANCES LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER ANY ONE             
 AREA...BUT THESE DETAILS ARE BEST DISCERNED CLOSER TO THE EVENT.               
 WILL GO WITH A 1-1.5 INCH FORECAST. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING MORE SO             
 IN NRN LOWER AND WIND SPEEDS WILL BE DECREASING FROM 10-15 KNOTS TO            
 AROUND 10KTS LATE. BEST SNOWS COULD BE FROM THE IMMEDIATE HIGHER               
 TERRAIN TO ALONG THE COASTS.                                                   
 MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...NEXT CLIPPER ARRIVES FROM THE NC                     
 PLAINS...BUT TRAVERSES TO OUR SW ACROSS NRN IL...SPREADING BEST                
 ISENTROPIC/WAA SNOWS ACROSS SW LOWER MICHIGAN. REALLY TOUGH TO SAY             
 HOW MUCH SYNOPTIC SNOWS WILL AFFECT OUR SRN MOST AREAS...BUT AT                
 LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOWS SHOULD SPREAD INTO AREAS SOUTH OF GRAND                 
 TRAVERSE BAY. ALL OTHER AREAS SHOW A PROMINENT DRY LAYER BETWEEN               
 650-850MB. ALSO...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING IN            
 NW FLOW REGIMES...BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT (AROUND 10KTS OR EVEN                
 LESS)...SO INLAND PENETRATION MAY BE MINIMAL. ALL-IN-ALL...WILL KEEP           
 40% CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN THE BEST WAY TO GO...UNTIL              
 THIS SYSTEMS DETAILS CAN COME TOGETHER. BEST CHANCES AREA SOUTH OF             
 M-72 AND WEST OF I-75. WILL TENTATIVELY PUT IN AROUND AN INCH FOR              
 MONDAY. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND THE 1000-850MB WIND                
 DIRECTION FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WHERE PREVIOUS THOUGHTS             
 WERE FOR A SHIFT TO WSW/SW. THIS NOT SO THE CASE WITH LATEST                   
 DEVELOPMENTS...BUT FEEL AS THOSE THESE DETAILS ARE LIKE MOST OTHERS            
 AT THIS TIME PERIOD OUT...BEST LEFT FOR WHEN THE EVENT COMES CLOSER            
 TO CURRENT TIME. WILL KEEP 40% CHANCES IN SAME AREAS ALL OF MONDAY             
 NIGHT.                                                                         
 TUESDAY...A GENERAL WNW/WEST FLOW TO BE AROUND AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH             
 AXIS AND PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC SNOW LOOKS TO ROLL THROUGH THE REGION.             
 THIS FEATURE DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...WITH THE TEMP                 
 PROFILES DO SUGGEST THAT SLIGHT WARMING AND H8 TEMPS RISING INTO THE           
 -16C RANGE MAY POSSIBLY LEAD TO BETTER FLAKES. NO WAY TO DETERMINE             
 THESE SORT OF DETAILS...AND CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWER WILL SUFFICE. THE            
 WINDS WILL AGAIN BE HARD TO DETERMINE...BUT AT LEAST SOME BACKING              
 SHOULD LEAD TO BETTER SNOWS FOR AREAS WEST OF I-75 AND SOUTH OF                
 M-68.                                                                          
 TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AS RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN            
 NORTH AMERICAN COAST...BETTER AND BETTER POSSIBILITIES RESIDE WITH             
 SEEING COLDER TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE                  
 ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE NC PLAINS. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES (SAME                  
 PATTERN) WILL IMPACT THE AREA...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN MORE SW FLOW             
 EVENTS AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS GO FROM NW TO SW BY LATE IN THE WORK               
 WEEK. THIS WOULD IMPACT THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE...AS WELL AS FAR           
 NRN LAKE HURON. MODELS SEEM RATHER AGREEABLE ON THIS EVOLUTION ATTM.           
 RIGHT NOW...TIMING IS FOR A COLD FRONT TO ARRIVE TUESDAY...AND AGAIN           
 FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR LAKE ENHANCED                
 SNOW. TEMPS ARE COLD ENOUGH...TO WHERE SUFFICIENT WIND SPEEDS IN THE           
 10-15MPH RANGE WOULD RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO CONTINUE IN                
 PORTIONS OF THE SW TO NW FLOW REGIMES OF NRN MICHIGAN THROUGH THIS             
 ENTIRE TIME.      SMD                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LAKE EFFECT SNOW                            
 WARNING...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MIZ020-025-026. LAKE EFFECT SNOW            
 ADVISORY...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MIZ031. LAKE EFFECT SNOW                   
 ADVISORY...THROUGH TONIGHT...MIZ019>021-022>027-028.                           
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                          
 355 PM EST SAT JAN 27 2007                                                     
 .SYNOPSIS...                                                                   
 LATEST WATER VAPOR IMGRY ALONG WITH 400MB RUC HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWS            
 A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM JAMES BAY ACROSS THE UPPER                
 GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SFC THIS FEATURE IS            
 REFLECTED AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES.              
 ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS NOTED IN THE NW            
 UNITED STATES...FURTHER SOUTH...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SITS JUST OFF THE           
 COAST OF CALIFORNIA AND ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES THE EASTERN CONUS.                
 BEHIND THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH...TEMPERATURES ARE COLD. AFTN                    
 TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ARE HOVERING JUST ABOVE ZERO           
 WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS AT A FEW SPOTS...-3 AT GFK...6 AT 8D3...0             
 AT FAR. THESE TEMPS ALONG WITH MODEST NWRLY SFC WINDS HAS YIELDED              
 WIND CHILL ADVISORIES FOR MUCH OF THIS AREA. CLOSER TO HOME TEMPS              
 ARE MUCH WARMER WITH READINGS GETTING TO NEAR NORMAL TODAY OR                  
 SLIGHTLY ABOVE...25 AT ERY...19 AT NWS MQT...21 AT P59 AND 27 AT               
 ISQ. LATEST RADAR TRENDS/SURFACE OBS SHOW LAKE EFFECT GOING STRONG             
 ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR/LAKE MICHIGAN NORTHERLY WIND SNOW BELTS.              
 12Z NAM BUFKIT SHOWS INVERSION HEIGHTS ON THE RISE...7000FT AT                 
 MQT...8000FT AT CMX THIS ALONG WITH 850MB TEMPS ARE AROUND -16 TO              
 -20 GOOD LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS. RADAR TRENDS SHOW THAT SNOW BANDS             
 HAVE BEEN MAINLY MULTI-PARALLEL OFF OF THE WESTERN LAKE WITH                   
 SOUTHWARD PROPIGATING DOMINATE BANDING OCCURRING ACROSS THE EASTERN            
 LAKE. CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN LAKE ASSOCIATED WITH THE                  
 DEPARTING TROUGH HAVE ALLOWED DOMINATE LES BANDS TO PROPAGATE                  
 SOUTHWESTLY AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS.                                                 
 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...                                            
 THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS TIME PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE             
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH SUNDAY.                                               
 WILL NOT ADJUST THE END TIMES OF THE WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES AT THIS            
 TIME...SIDING TO WAIT UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING OR TOMORROW TO MAKE             
 THIS DECISION. THERE SEEMS TO CONTINUE TO BE EVIDENCE TO DO SO...AS            
 WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY (310 TO 270) AFTER 18Z SUNDAY ACROSS THE            
 WESTERN THIRD OF LAKE SUPERIOR.  INVERSION HEIGHTS SHOULD ALSO                 
 BEGINS TO SLOWLY CRASH TO 5KFT BY 12Z SUNDAY...AND THEN CLOSER TO              
 2.5KFT BY 21Z...PUTTING AN END TO HEAVY SNOW. THE CENTRAL AND                  
 EASTERN GROUP OF WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES STILL MAY WORK TIME                   
 WISE...AS THE FOCUS JUST CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD...WITH             
 SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND A LONGER FETCH ACROSS LAKE             
 SUPERIOR.  THIS WOULD CUT OFF BARAGA COUNTY FROM RECEIVING MUCH MORE           
 SNOW...BUT ALGER AND NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT SHOULD STILL BE RECEIVING            
 SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  WILL             
 ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW STRONG AND HOW FAST THE QUICK MOVING           
 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...SLIDES SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM NORTH           
 DAKOTA LATE TODAY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY                          
 AFTERNOON...DRYING OUT OUR AIRMASS.                                            
 OVERALL...WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO BECOME NORTHERLY THIS                      
 AFTERNOON...BUT ARE NOW STARTING TO COME AROUND...LEADING TO                   
 CONVERGENT SNOW BANDS ACROSS EASTERN MARQUETTE INTO ALGER COUNTY               
 LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  IN GENERAL...STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE RUC13             
 FOR WINDS...WHICH WAS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE LOCAL WRF AND NAM.  FOR              
 COMPARISON THE GFS WAS TOO QUICK TO BRING DOWN THE NORTHERLY                   
 WINDS...SO HAVE RELIED HEAVILY ON NON-GFS MODELS FOR THIS FORECAST             
 ISSUANCE FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.                                               
 HESITATE TO RAISE FORECAST TEMPS MUCH OVERNIGHT...EVEN WITH OUR                
 CURRENT FORECAST BRING A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE VALUES.              
 GIVEN PLENTY OF COLD AIR UPSTREAM...WITH SINGLE DIGIT READINGS BELOW           
 AND ABOVE ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WE SHOULD BE ABLE           
 TO MAKE IT INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.                                  
 .LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                  
 .SUNDAY NIGHT...LES SHOULD BE GREATLY DIMINISHED AS RDGG/SUBSIDENCE            
 BUILDS IN FROM THE W AND FLOW BECOMES INCREASING ANTICYCLONIC.                 
 DEVELOPING LAND BREEZES COULD HELP LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE AND FOCUS               
 SOME BETTER LES BANDS OVER ALGER-LUCE-NRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES WHERE           
 I HAVE MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS. ELSEWHERE ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR RDGG              
 AND DRY AIR SHOULD DIMINISH LES TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.             
 CLEARING OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET TO              
 AROUND -10F OVER SOME FAVORED COLD DRAINAGE LOCATIONS.                         
 MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS HAVE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING            
 THROUGH BY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL SHIFT WEAK WIND FLOW BACK TO N AND             
 BRING SOME LIGHT LES ONSHORE AGAIN SO KEPT CHC POPS OF 30/40 ALONG             
 LAKE SUPERIOR ZONES.                                                           
 TUE INTO WED...MODELS INDICATE FLOW WILL BACK MORE WNW IN ADVANCE OF           
 NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM AS 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN IN -16 TO -18C RANGE OVER           
 LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WNW FLOW WILL TEND TO SHIFT LES BANDS BACK ALONG           
 THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE SO HAVE CONFINED CHC POPS FOR SNOW OVER            
 THESE LOCATIONS WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS OR DRY CONDITIONS FARTHER                 
 INLAND.                                                                        
 FOLLOWED MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF WHICH SHOWS NEXT SIGNIFICANT CLIPPER            
 SYSTEM TO MOVE IN ON THU SO INCLUDED CHC POPS FOR ENTIRE CWA AT THIS           
 TIME. ECMWF INDICATES VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR (850 MB TEMPS OF AROUND             
 -25C) WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM. FORECAST                 
 BECOMES A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN BY NEXT FRI INTO SAT AS MODELS VARY ON            
 TIMING OF CLIPPERS. THE GFS SHOWS ONE CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING                    
 THROUGH ON FRI WITH ANOTHER TO FOLLOW ON SAT BRINGING REINFORCING              
 SHOTS OF BITTER COLD ARCTIC AIR. THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS A POLAR VORTEX            
 DESCENDING FM HUDSON BAY WITH ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVING THROUGH THE               
 AREA ON SAT WITH -30C AIR IN ITS WAKE. ECMWF SOLN SEEMS TO AGREE               
 BETTER WITH GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SO WOULD TEND TO FAVOR ECMWF SOLN MORE           
 THAN OPERATIONAL GFS AT THIS POINT. ANYWAY...DESPITE TIMING                    
 DIFFERENCES...MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT NEXT WEEKEND WILL LIKELY            
 BE BITTERLY COLD.                                                              
 &&                                                                             
 .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SUN MIZ002-009.                       
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING 1 PM TODAY TO 1 AM EST MON MIZ004>006.               
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST SUN MIZ001-003.                     
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUN MIZ084.                          
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY 1 PM TODAY UNTIL 1 AM EST MON MIZ013-085.           
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR.                                   
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 .SYNOPSIS...DJP                                                                
 .SHORT TERM...KF                                                               
 .LONG TERM...JV                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                         
 221 PM EST SAT JAN 27 2007                                                     
 .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                        
 LONG RANGE PATTERN WILL BE CONTROLLED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A                  
 STRONG HUDSON BAY VORTEX AT 500 MB NEXT WEEK. TUESDAY THROUGH                  
 THURSDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES                  
 MAINLY DUE TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND POSSIBLY ONE OR TWO WEAK                    
 CLIPPERS. BASED ON THIS WENT WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS CLOSEST TO LAKE             
 ONTARIO... AND LOWER POPS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS NORTHEAST PA. KEY               
 TO THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK WILL BE WHETHER ENERGY DROPPING             
 SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN CANADA CAN TURN THE UPPER FLOW INTO THE                   
 SOUTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN U.S... WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR ONE OF THE             
 CLIPPERS TO BRING SOME GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN             
 ADVERTISING THIS SCENARIO FOR AWHILE NOW... WHILE THE GFS HAS GONE             
 BACK AND FORTH. THIS SCENARIO WOULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF                
 WARMER WEATHER LATE NEXT WEEK... ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR A              
 SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. ALL MODELS INDICATE THAT ANY MODERATION                  
 WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY A RAPID COOL-DOWN AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.                     
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION /19Z-18Z/...                                                         
 EXPECT OVC MVFR TO VFR CIGS AND P6SM VSBYS INTO THIS EVENING.                  
 AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NY THIS EVENING                
 AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT LOWERING VSBYS AND CIGS TO MVFR.                        
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 /ISSUED 1059 AM EST SAT JAN 27 2007/                                           
 SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
 WM FNT DEFINITELY MAKING ITS PRESENCE FELT ACROSS WNY. SFC LOW                 
 SITS NR LK HURON WITH WEAKER LOW CENTERED NR KBUF. ASSOC FNT                   
 STRETCHED FROM APPROX KBUF-KDSV-KELM. TIGHT TEMP GRADIENT WITH 28F             
 AT PENN-YAN TO 15F AT SYRACUSE. GREATEST PRESSURE FALLS CENTERED               
 OFF THE JERSEY SHORE INDICATES THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY MOVE SOUTH               
 AND EAST...SOUTH OF SYRACUSE. THIS WOULD KEEP NRN ZONES IN COLD                
 AIR ALL DAY AND HAVE CUT BACK ON TEMPS TO SHOW VERY LITTLE DIURNAL             
 CHANGE. AM NOT EXTREMELY IMPRESSED WITH MUCH WARMUP TODAY AND HAVE             
 TRIMMED BACK TEMPS NEARLY EVERYWHERE.                                          
 AS FOR FZRA ADVISORY...STILL RECEIVING NUMEROUS REPORTS OF SLICK               
 ROADS ASSOC WITH GLAZE. WILL KEEP ADVISORY UP THRU AT LEAST 18Z                
 AND RE-EVALUATE AT THAT TIME. SNDGS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE BEFORE              
 THEN WITH CLD TOP TEMPS REMAINING WARM. ECHOES ON RADAR HAVE                   
 WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY IN THE PAST HOUR AND OBS HAVE GENERALLY                  
 CHANGED OVER TO ALL SNOW. EXPECT FZDZ TO BECOME LESS LIKELY BY                 
 AFTERNOON BUT WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHGS TO POPS AT THIS TIME.                     
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 842 AM EST SAT JAN 27 2007/                                            
 SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
 HAVE HOISTED FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE                
 AREA...MAINLY EAST OF A SYRACUSE TO CORTLAND TO WALTON LINE. HAVE              
 RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS THIS MORNING OF SLICK ROADS IN THESE                  
 AREAS DUE TO LIGHT FZDZ/FZRA. PATCHY FZDZ EXPECTED ELSEWHERE BUT               
 MEASURABLE PCPN LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO I-81 CORRIDOR AND EAST.               
 RADAR SHOWING WK RETURNS INDICATIVE OF VERY FINE PARTICLES. LIGHT              
 SNOW MIXING IN AT TIMES BUT MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE GLAZING AND NOT               
 RELATED TO SNOW ACCUMS. THUS...HAVE OPTED FOR FZRA ADVISORY UNTIL              
 1 PM. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND ADJUST ADVISORY AREA IF NEEDED.             
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 642 AM EST SAT JAN 27 2007/                                            
 AVIATION /12Z-12Z/...                                                          
 A WEAK SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON WILL MOVE                
 ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH ONLY WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED                 
 WITH THIS FEATURE PRECIP WILL BE LIMITED AND COULD EITHER BE                   
 SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SNOW. IN GENERAL CONDITIONS                   
 THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MVFR DUE TO CIGS. CIGS WILL LOWER                   
 BY MID MORNING WITH VSBY RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR AT KSYR THRU 18Z,                
 DUE TO FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW. MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS                 
 DUE TO FOG ARE ALSO EXPECTED AT KITH/KBGM BTW 14Z-18Z. WINDS WILL              
 REMAIN BTW 5-10 KNOTS, PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING THEN             
 SOUTHERLY BY MID MORNING SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS                      
 AFTERNOON TO WESTERLY TOWARD EVENING. LATE IN THE PERIOD                       
 RESTRICTIONS IN VSBY DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY AT KSYR/KITH/KBGM.         
 RRM                                                                            
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 418 AM EST SAT JAN 27 2007/                                            
 SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                          
 QUIET WEATHER WEEKEND WITH WARMER TEMPS AND LIGHT PRECIP. ATTM                 
 UNDER A WEAK UL RIDGE. WAA AHEAD OF A SFC LOW MOVG ESE FROM                    
 MICHIGAN. IN WEAK OVERRUNNING WITH SOME LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED RADAR              
 ECHOES MOSTLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. OBS IN SRN                
 ONTARIO AND RUC SHOW SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. NO MEASURABLE.               
 DENDRITE ZONE ABOVE SATURATED LOW LEVELS. MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS                
 LACKING SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANYTHING ON THIS AND CONT THE CHC FZDZ               
 IN GRIDS AND ZONES THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL CROSS THE CWA THIS              
 AFTN LEAVING BEHIND A WEAK TROF FOR TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW NEAR              
 THE LOW TRACK BUT SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS WITH TEMPS               
 IN THE 30S. ALSO BEHIND THE LOW WEAK CAA STARTS. QPF AGAIN LIGHT               
 TONIGHT.                                                                       
 ON SUNDAY A SHORT WAVE DIVES SE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THEN THE MID              
 ATLANTIC. THIS WILL SET OFF SOME SNOW SHOWERS WITH DEEPER                      
 MOISTURE. AMOUNTS AGAIN LIGHT WITH BEST DYNAMICS S AND E.                      
 SUNDAY NIGHT FLOW GOES AGAIN TO NW WHILE 850 TEMPS GO TO -20C.                 
 LAKE INSTABILITY GOES EXTREME. FLOW STARTS OUT NW SO MULTIBANDS.               
 ON MONDAY A SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH AND SHIFTS THE FLOW AROUND TO             
 A MORE FAVORABLE 290 TO 300 FLOW SENDING IT INTO SYR. SNOW AMOUNTS             
 COULD BE ENOUGH FOR A LES ADVISORY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TAC                    
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 331 PM EST FRI JAN 26 2007/                                            
 LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                          
 COLD PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS OFF THE                
 LAKES AND AN OCCASIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCE OR REINFORCING COLD WAVE              
 MOVING THROUGH. ON TUESDAY...WEAK LOW PRES AREA WILL MOVE ACROSS               
 THE LAKES AND NEW YORK BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND                   
 FLURRIES. HIGH PRES CENTER WILL PASS ACROSS PA ON WED WITH WLY                 
 WINDS OFF THE LAKES. ANOTHER LOW PRES AREA MOVES ACROSS THE LAKES              
 INTO SE CANADA THU BRINGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH NY AND PA               
 THU NIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NY...NONE.                                                                     
 PA...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 LONG TERM...MSE                                                                
 AVIATION...MSE                                                                 
</pre> ny                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                             
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                           
 1203 PM CST SAT JAN 27 2007                                                    
 .UPDATE...AVIATION DISC ADDED TO UPDATE FOR 18Z TAFS. SEE BELOW.               
 HAVE MADE SOME CONSIDERABLE REVISIONS TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE                  
 WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS AGAIN BUFFETING THE FORECAST AREA                 
 TODAY. THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN YESTERDAY AND TODAY IS THE                       
 ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOWFALL AND BLOWING SNOW COMBINED WITH MUCH                  
 COLDER AIR IN PLACE TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...WHICH IS YIELDING WIND              
 CHILLS RIGHT AT OR JUST ABOVE WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA.                    
 REPORTS FROM AROUND THE AREA INDICATE THAT BLOWING SNOW OVER ROADS             
 IS MAKING AN IMPACT ON TRAVEL...SO HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER                
 ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF TODAY /VALID TAIL 4 PM CST/ FOR ALL OF                
 THE FORECAST AREA THAT HAS SNOW COVER OVER IT...FOR THE                        
 COMBINATION OF 25 TO 35 MPH SUSTAINED NW WINDS...BLOWING SNOW                  
 CONTINUING A HAZARDOUS TRAVEL SITUATION...AND WIND CHILLS THAT                 
 WILL DROP DOWN TO 20 BELOW TO 30 BELOW ZERO DURING THE AFTERNOON               
 HOURS. ZONES WITHOUT ANY SUBSTANTIVE SNOW-COVER GET ANOTHER WIND               
 ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR 25 TO 35 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS WITH HIGHER                
 GUSTS. ALSO...CLEANED UP SKY-COVER/WX/POP/SNW GRIDS AS RADAR/SAT               
 TRENDS OVER THE PAST 2 TO 4 HOURS SUGGESTS THE BULK OF LIGHT SNOW              
 FLURRY/SHOWER ACTIVITY IS PRETTY MUCH PASSED. LARGE AREA OF                    
 CLEARING OVER NORTH DAKOTA IS MOVING INTO NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.              
 HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL                   
 SODAK...SO CONTINUED SCATTERED FLURRY MENTION THROUGH THE                      
 REMAINDER OF THE TODAY PERIOD. LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION PATTERN             
 FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY PERIOD IN THE RUC AND 12Z NAM-WRF                   
 SUGGEST 925HPA TEMPS DOWN TO -17C TO -20C ACROSS NE SODAK AND WC               
 MN BY 00Z THIS EVENING...WHILE CENTRAL/NC SODAK APPEARS A LITTLE               
 WARMER WITH 925HPA TEMPS RANGING FROM AROUND -10C TO -16C. THIS                
 WILL PLAY A ROLE IN COMBINATION WITH WIND SPEEDS DURING THE                    
 TONIGHT PERIOD WHEN DETERMINING THE AREAL COVERAGE OF A WIND CHILL             
 ADVISORY THAT WILL LIKELY BE POSTED FOR TONIGHT...LATER THIS                   
 AFTERNOON WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. STAY TUNED.                              
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT                                       
 SHORT RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. PROBLEM AREAS THIS CYCLE                 
 SEEM TO BE TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES              
 ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW             
 TWENTIES. TEMPERATURES IN NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA ARE NEARLY TWENTY              
 DEGREES COOLER. EXPECT THAT TODAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURE WILL OCCUR                
 BEFORE 8 AM CST. GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE ALSO NOTED ALTHOUGH THEY                
 SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY. WSR-88D SHOWING A LARGE             
 AREA OF SPOTTY LIGHT RETURNS. EXPECT THIS WILL BE THE CASE MOST OF             
 THE DAY. MODEL TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW AROUND 10C COOLER               
 TEMPERATURES AT H85 THAN YESTERDAY EVENING. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL             
 HOVER NEAR ADVISORY NUMBERS LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW BUT THE WIND             
 IS JUST A LITTLE TOO LIGHT AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL NEED TO BE                  
 WATCHED. PRECIPITATION WILL BE HIT OR MISS TODAY AND MORE ALONG                
 THE LINES OF FLURRIES. THE INCOMING AIR IS SO COLD THAT IT CAN NOT             
 CARRY A GREAT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE. MONDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER WAVE                 
 APPROACH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH                
 THIS WAVE WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY. IT APPEARS THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE                 
 MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH ALTHOUGH STILL NOT A GREAT AMOUNT. HELD             
 OFF PRECIPITATION TIMING UNTIL THE UPPER WAVE WAS CLOSER TO THE                
 AREA. EXPECT DURING THE DAY MONDAY WILL SEE SOME SNOW ALTHOUGH IT              
 DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A MAJOR EVENT BUT LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW WITH A               
 LOW WATER EQUIVALENT AND 15 TO 20 MPH WIND MAY BE ENOUGH TO BE                 
 INCONVENIENT.                                                                  
 .LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY                                            
 NOT MANY CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE COLD AND                   
 BREEZY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A               
 COUPLE WAVES MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA IN NORTHERLY FLOW WITH                
 THE BEST LOOKING SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE             
 POPS STILL APPEAR OK ON WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH GFS IS SUGGESTING                 
 BEST LIFT MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. DECIDED TO KEEP TUESDAY                
 NIGHT DRY FOR NOW TO SEE IF MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING BEST LIFT                 
 THROUGH DURING THIS TIME. IN FAST NORTHERLY FLOW DON`T HAVE VERY               
 HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THE ONE OF MANY WAVES THAT MOVE SOUTH                
 THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS STILL SUGGESTING EVEN COLDER AIR FOR LATE             
 NEXT WEEK AS 850 MB TEMPS APPROACHING -30 C SURGE SOUTH INTO THE               
 DAKOTAS. THIS WILL ALL DEPEND ON EXACT LOCATION OF HUDSON BAY LOW              
 BUT DECENT AGREEMENT EXISTS IN BRINGING THIS SHOT OF COLDER AIR AT             
 THIS TIME. COULD POTENTIALLY BE LOOKING AT LOWS WELL INTO THE                  
 TEENS AND 20S BELOW ZERO BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT                 
 WEEKEND.                                                                       
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 18Z TAFS ARE OUT...WITH THE PRIMARY FOCUS/CONCERN BEING THE STRONG             
 NORTHWEST WINDS PREVALENT AGAIN TODAY ACROSS ALL FOUR TERMINALS.               
 NORTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL                 
 PERSIST THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THEN...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE           
 CONTINUES TO REPOSITION ITSELF OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL                   
 PLAINS...WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT WILL GRADUALLY DROP OFF TO 10              
 TO 15 MPH AND SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY MORNING. SOME            
 SCATTERED TO BROKEN MAINLY VFR CIGS /SCT-BKN045 AGL/ PERSIST                   
 ACROSS THE KMBG AND KPIR TERMINALS AND SUSPECT THEY WILL GRADUALLY             
 DIMINISH THROUGH THE COURSE OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.                
 KABR AND KATY HAVE SCATTERED OUT...WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT SKC-              
 SCT035 AGL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.                            
 HOWEVER...ISOLATED INSTANCES OF MVFR CIG OR VIS CONDITIONS IN                  
 SNOW FLURRIES AND/OR BLSN ARE NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY THIS         
 AFTERNOON...UNTIL THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT AND THE WIND SPEEDS DIMINISH.           
 &&                                                                             
 .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR BROWN-          
      CAMPBELL-CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-EDMUNDS-FAULK-GRANT-                   
      HAMLIN-HAND-HYDE-MARSHALL-MCPHERSON-POTTER-ROBERTS-SPINK-                 
      SULLY-WALWORTH.                                                           
      WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST /3 PM MST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR                
      BUFFALO-CORSON-DEWEY-HUGHES-JONES-LYMAN-STANLEY.                          
 MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR BIG             
      STONE-TRAVERSE.                                                           
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 UPDATE...DORN                                                                  
 SHORT TERM...KEEFE                                                             
 LONG TERM...TARVER                                                             
 AVIATION...DORN                                                                
</pre> sd                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                             
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                           
 1132 AM CST SAT JAN 27 2007                                                    
 .UPDATE...TODAY                                                                
 HAVE MADE SOME CONSIDERABLE REVISIONS TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE WITH             
 ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS AGAIN BUFFETING THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.               
 THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN YESTERDAY AND TODAY IS THE ADDITIONAL LIGHT             
 SNOWFALL AND BLOWING SNOW COMBINED WITH MUCH COLDER AIR IN PLACE               
 TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...WHICH IS YIELDING WIND CHILLS RIGHT AT OR               
 JUST ABOVE WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA. REPORTS FROM AROUND THE               
 AREA INDICATE THAT BLOWING SNOW OVER ROADS IS MAKING AN IMPACT ON              
 TRAVEL...SO HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF              
 TODAY /VALID TAIL 4 PM CST/ FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT HAS              
 SNOW COVER OVER IT...FOR THE COMBINATION OF 25 TO 35 MPH SUSTAINED             
 NW WINDS...BLOWING SNOW CONTINUING A HAZARDOUS TRAVEL                          
 SITUATION...AND WIND CHILLS THAT WILL DROP DOWN TO 20 BELOW TO 30              
 BELOW ZERO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ZONES WITHOUT ANY                       
 SUBSTANTIVE SNOW-COVER GET ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR 25              
 TO 35 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALSO...CLEANED UP                 
 SKY-COVER/WX/POP/SNW GRIDS AS RADAR/SAT TRENDS OVER THE PAST 2 TO 4            
 HOURS SUGGESTS THE BULK OF LIGHT SNOW FLURRY/SHOWER ACTIVITY IS                
 PRETTY MUCH PASSED. LARGE AREA OF CLEARING OVER NORTH DAKOTA IS                
 MOVING INTO NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS REMAIN                
 ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL SODAK...SO CONTINUED SCATTERED                
 FLURRY MENTION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TODAY PERIOD. LOW                  
 LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY PERIOD              
 IN THE RUC AND 12Z NAM-WRF SUGGEST 925HPA TEMPS DOWN TO -17C TO                
 -20C ACROSS NE SODAK AND WC MN BY 00Z THIS EVENING...WHILE                     
 CENTRAL/NC SODAK APPEARS A LITTLE WARMER WITH 925HPA TEMPS RANGING             
 FROM AROUND -10C TO -16C. THIS WILL PLAY A ROLE IN COMBINATION                 
 WITH WIND SPEEDS DURING THE TONIGHT PERIOD WHEN DETERMINING THE                
 AREAL COVERAGE OF A WIND CHILL ADVISORY THAT WILL LIKELY BE POSTED             
 FOR TONIGHT...LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.                 
 STAY TUNED.                                                                    
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT                                       
 SHORT RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. PROBLEM AREAS THIS CYCLE                 
 SEEM TO BE TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES              
 ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW             
 TWENTIES. TEMPERATURES IN NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA ARE NEARLY TWENTY              
 DEGREES COOLER. EXPECT THAT TODAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURE WILL OCCUR                
 BEFORE 8 AM CST. GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE ALSO NOTED ALTHOUGH THEY                
 SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY. WSR-88D SHOWING A LARGE             
 AREA OF SPOTTY LIGHT RETURNS. EXPECT THIS WILL BE THE CASE MOST OF             
 THE DAY. MODEL TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW AROUND 10C COOLER               
 TEMPERATURES AT H85 THAN YESTERDAY EVENING. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL             
 HOVER NEAR ADVISORY NUMBERS LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW BUT THE WIND             
 IS JUST A LITTLE TOO LIGHT AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL NEED TO BE                  
 WATCHED. PRECIPITATION WILL BE HIT OR MISS TODAY AND MORE ALONG                
 THE LINES OF FLURRIES. THE INCOMING AIR IS SO COLD THAT IT CAN NOT             
 CARRY A GREAT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE. MONDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER WAVE                 
 APPROACH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH                
 THIS WAVE WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY. IT APPEARS THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE                 
 MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH ALTHOUGH STILL NOT A GREAT AMOUNT. HELD             
 OFF PRECIPITATION TIMING UNTIL THE UPPER WAVE WAS CLOSER TO THE                
 AREA. EXPECT DURING THE DAY MONDAY WILL SEE SOME SNOW ALTHOUGH IT              
 DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A MAJOR EVENT BUT LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW WITH A               
 LOW WATER EQUIVALENT AND 15 TO 20 MPH WIND MAY BE ENOUGH TO BE                 
 INCONVENIENT.                                                                  
 .LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY                                            
 NOT MANY CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE COLD AND                   
 BREEZY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A               
 COUPLE WAVES MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA IN NORTHERLY FLOW WITH                
 THE BEST LOOKING SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE             
 POPS STILL APPEAR OK ON WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH GFS IS SUGGESTING                 
 BEST LIFT MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. DECIDED TO KEEP TUESDAY                
 NIGHT DRY FOR NOW TO SEE IF MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING BEST LIFT                 
 THROUGH DURING THIS TIME. IN FAST NORTHERLY FLOW DON`T HAVE VERY               
 HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THE ONE OF MANY WAVES THAT MOVE SOUTH                
 THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS STILL SUGGESTING EVEN COLDER AIR FOR LATE             
 NEXT WEEK AS 850 MB TEMPS APPROACHING -30 C SURGE SOUTH INTO THE               
 DAKOTAS. THIS WILL ALL DEPEND ON EXACT LOCATION OF HUDSON BAY LOW              
 BUT DECENT AGREEMENT EXISTS IN BRINGING THIS SHOT OF COLDER AIR AT             
 THIS TIME. COULD POTENTIALLY BE LOOKING AT LOWS WELL INTO THE                  
 TEENS AND 20S BELOW ZERO BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT                 
 WEEKEND.                                                                       
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 BKN CLOUD DECK CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTH             
 DAKOTA THIS MORNING. SCT -SHSN AND AREAS OF BLSN ALSO EXPECTED                 
 ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AS WELL AS               
 SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. CEILINGS GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2000-6000 FT              
 BUT WILL BE LOW END MVFR AROUND 1000 FT IN -SHSN. VISIBILITIES                 
 WILL BE REDUCED TO AROUND 1SM AT TIMES IN -SHSN. SURFACE WINDS                 
 FROM THE NORTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY                   
 AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE MORNING                
 WITH AN IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON.                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR BROWN-          
      CAMPBELL-CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-EDMUNDS-FAULK-GRANT-                   
      HAMLIN-HAND-HYDE-MARSHALL-MCPHERSON-POTTER-ROBERTS-SPINK-                 
      SULLY-WALWORTH.                                                           
      WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST /3 PM MST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR                
      BUFFALO-CORSON-DEWEY-HUGHES-JONES-LYMAN-STANLEY.                          
 MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR BIG             
      STONE-TRAVERSE.                                                           
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 UPDATE...DORN                                                                  
 SHORT TERM...KEEFE                                                             
 LONG TERM...TARVER                                                             
 AVIATION...TARVER                                                              
</pre> sd