FXUS04 KWBC 231919
QPFPFD
 
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
318 PM EDT FRI JUL 23 2004
 
PRELIM DAY 1 AND DAY 2 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 25/0000 UTC THRU JUL 26/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
 
DAY 1...
 
...ERN U.S...

THE FNTL BNDRY ASSOCTD WITH THE SERN CANADIAN VORTEX WL PUSH
SLOLY OFF THE NEW ENG CST DURG THIS PD..BUT WL STALL ALG THE
MID ATLC CST..AS DOWNSTREAM MID/UPR LVL RDG OVR THE WRN ATLC
HOLDS STG.   PREFER THE SLGTLY FARTHER E PSN OF THE FNT THRU
NEW ENG AS PER THE ETA..GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE SFC HI..WITH
THE MDLS OTRW IN VRY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PSN OF THE FNT
VCNTY OF THE DELMARVA.   THERE IS ALREADY VRY HI MSTR IN
PLACE ALG THE MID ATLC CST AHD OF THE FNT..PWS ABV 2
INCHES..AND THIS VRY HI MSTR WL PERSIST AS IT POOLS VCNTY OF
THE FNT.   XPC THE COMBO OF FNTL CNVGNC AND THE VRY HI MSTR
TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CNVCTN..ESP FRI EVE AND AGAIN SAT
AFTN..IN WHAT SHLD ALSO BE A DIFL FLO PATN ALOFT.   GIVEN THE
MSTR AVBLTY AND SLO CELL MOVEMENT..SOME ISOLD HVY TO VRY HVY
RAINS ARE LIKELY..AND THE ETA AND GFS BOTH INDICATE THIS.  
XPC SOME 1-2 INCH RNFL AMTS..WITH ISOLD HVIER TOTALS PSBL.


...SRN PLAINS...

FNTL BNDRY STALLED ALG THE SRN EDGE OF THE WLYS SHLD BE THE
FOCUS FOR ANOTHER AREA OF HVY TO ISOLD EXCESSIVE
RAINS..MAINLY SRN KS/NRN OK EWD INTO MO AND AR.  MDLS ARE
SHOWING SLGT DIFFS IN AXIS OF HVIEST RNFL..WITH THE GFS
TYPICALLY A LTL FARTHER N WITH ITS HVY RNFL AXIS THAN THE ETA
IS.   PSN OF FNT IN NRN OK ATTM SUGGESTS A SOLN CLOSER TO THE
GFS IS LIKELY CORRECT..SO LEANED A LTL MORE TWDS THAT SOLN. 
S/WV ENERGY COMING EWD OUT OF CO..ALG THE SRN EDGE OF THE
WLYS..SHLD HELP TRIGGER THE CNVCTN..AS WL THE DVLPMNT OF 25-
30KTS OF SWLY THEN WSWLY LLJ.   POOLING OF PWS TO GTR THAN 2
INCHES VCNTY OF THE FNTL WL LEAD TO THE POTNL FOR VRY HVY TO
ISOLD EXCESSIVE RAINS..EVEN IN WHAT SHLD BE A FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE PATN.   XPC A SWATH OF AT LEAST 2-3 INCH RNFL
AMTS..WITH SOME ISOLD HVIER TOTALS LIKELY.   FARTHER TO THE S
AND W..MDT RAINS LIKELY ALG FNTL BNDRY THRU WRN TX INTO SERN
NM..WITH THE SLGTLY HVIER ETA QPF PREFERRED HERE. 


...NAME AREA...

ANOTHER PD OF DIURNAL CNVCTN OVR MSTLY THE MEXICAN PTN OF THE
NAME AREA XPCD AS THE MID/UPR LVL RDG SHIFTS ACRS AZ INTO SRN
NV AND ALLOWS FOR DEEP ELYS TO IMPINGE UPON THE HIER TERRAIN.
PLENTY OF DEEP MSTR WL SUPPORT A BROAD REGION OF MDT/HVY
RAINS WITH ISOLD VRY HVY AMTS WHERE THE UPSLOPE IS STGST.   
 

DAY 2...

MID ATLC/SRN NEW ENG....
SFC BNDRY CONTINUES SLOWLY SWD TO THE SRN MID ATLC REGION AS
SFC RIDGE SETTLES INTO THE GTRLKS AND NRN NEW ENG.  LOW LEVEL
ELY ATLC INFLOW NW OF THE BNDRY ALONG WITH HIGH PW VALUES
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. 
PREFER THE DRIER ETA AND UKMET SOLNS OVER NEW ENG WHEN
COMPARED TO THE MUCH MOISTER GFS.  THE GFS MAY HAVE SOME
FEEDBACK PROBLEMS IN THIS AREA AND DOES NOT BUILD THE RIDGE INTO
NEW ENG AS MUCH AS THE ETA/UKMET.  PREFER TO KEEP THE POTENTIAL
FOR .50 INCH PLUS AMTS IN THE HIGH PW AIR AND CLOSE TO 85H BNDRY
FROM ERN PA AND NJ SWD TO ERN VA/NC....THOUGH A LIMITING FACTOR IS
A LACK OF DEFINED VORT ENERGY.

SOUTHEAST....
AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE SRN
STATES WITH PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES....WHILE SFC BNDRY ALIGNS
OVER THE TN VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIANS.  GFS APPEARS BEST IN
INDICATING WIDESPREAD DIURNAL CONVECTION SUN AFTN IN THE MOIST
AIRMASS WITH LOCALIZED .50 INCH PLUS AMTS.

TX/NM AND SRN PLAINS...
SHRTWV ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE CNTRL U.S. TROF
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO TOUCH OFF AREAS OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION FROM NORTHEAST TX TO PORTIONS OF AR AND SRN MO. 
THIS AREA OF ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AND SLIDE SE LATER THIS
PERIOD AS SYSTEM PROGRESSES TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND
DRIER SFC RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS.  FARTHER WEST...MOISTURE
AIMS INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND THE WRN TX PANHANDLE AS ELY
LOW LEVEL GRADIENT TIGHTENS.  BOTH THE ETA AND GFS FOCUS 1-2 INCH
PLUS AMTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW TEXAS.

...NAME AREA...
5H RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE DESERT SW....WHICH SHOULD LIMIT MOISTURE
INFLOW INTO AZ.  UPPER CIRC CURRENTLY OVER N CNTRL MEXICO
SHOULD PULL SLOWLY WEST AND REACH BAJA CA EARLY THIS PERIOD. 
ADDITIONAL IMPULSES MAY TRACK THRU NRN MEXICO SOUTH OF UPPER
RIDGE THOUGH MODELS ARE NOT VERY DEFINED WITH THESE FEATURES
AT THIS TIME.    GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE ETA/GFS GUIDANCE WITH
AMTS UP TO AROUND 1 INCH ALONG THE MTNS OF WRN MEXICO.

TERRY/HEDGE

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
 
24HR QP VT 25/00Z
 0.01 224071 234078 246086 265104 271108 278111 292119 295123 
      301126 309129 315129 319127 328124 336120 343119 359122 
      373121 383120 388115 397109 405105 413103 423103 435103 
      441102 444100 448097 449090 447076 448066 448059 448051 
      446041 443032 432019 423007 419994 418987 417978 418955 
      418948 417942 414940 411941 407943 404944 402943 398933 
      394924 389917 378908 372902 368898 359884 355879 353873 
      349862 346853 345843 344832 345823 350814 355811 360811 
      364821 368830 371832 375832 379830 382827 393813 401800 
      419768 431748 438738 442733 445730 449727 454722 460714 
      472697 476691 481682 486672 490664 492652 495642 497638 
      498631 498627 496625 493624 483628 477634 474640 471637 
      469634 469630 470618 470614 469607 469603 465601 461602 
      457606 453611 452615 445632 442641 438650 428669 423679 
      421684 417688 409697 401707 394715 385723 370734 362740 
      356745 348750 341755 339758 335760 329766 316779 311785 
      305788 300789 278794 260797 251800 247802 246807 248811 
      253819 263828 268831 272836 277844 280851 284863 286868 
      287873 289896 290910 296922 300929 305936 315946 322956 
      324960 324966 324975 323980 320983 316987 309989 298992 
      290995 283000 277003 269006 262009 249015 240019 230019 
 0.25 225060 238066 243069 248074 259084 265092 271099 276103 
      283106 290108 297110 306110 312114 318115 320114 326108 
      331105 334105 343104 353093 359086 361081 364078 368075 
      373073 384073 391072 395069 398065 401060 408054 411051 
      414047 415042 415037 409030 406025 404019 402014 400011 
      393009 384006 383997 384986 387976 390965 392961 394952 
      393945 390934 386928 381922 374916 366911 358906 351901 
      346898 341897 338901 337908 338920 338930 340942 342958 
      342973 341982 338990 336997 332004 328012 324022 322032 
      321045 321054 323062 327068 328071 327075 323084 319085 
      305083 296078 284072 273064 250039 240038 234037 228035 
 0.25 475669 473665 470663 464665 453676 450679 446680 444676 
      440677 430690 414711 410716 402721 388731 375739 364746 
      350754 339765 332773 324782 322787 320792 319796 317800 
      312804 306808 300811 288816 285819 284822 285827 287836 
      291841 296845 299849 301855 304861 308866 314869 318869 
      322864 324841 332815 334809 336804 338802 344798 360789 
      367787 373786 384785 394778 399773 404768 414754 429734 
      449709 463691 471680 474674 475669 
 0.50 441706 431712 423716 416720 410725 404728 390737 378743 
      366749 355756 350759 344765 337773 333778 331783 334788 
      338791 343789 348786 360779 367775 372774 379773 383772 
      387774 391773 395770 400767 404762 411751 418740 426728 
      432718 433714 436710 441706 
 0.50 391949 389942 386933 381927 375922 368918 363916 350911 
      348912 345916 344923 344931 345944 346965 346974 345983 
      340997 334012 329026 326035 325045 325050 327054 330059 
      334061 339059 344052 346045 348038 348027 351020 354012 
      359007 371997 375992 379985 382977 385969 391949 
 0.50 397053 398049 395046 394046 392045 389046 386049 386050 
      386053 387054 389057 390057 392058 395057 397053 
 0.50 316822 311820 308820 303822 298824 295827 296833 298836 
      302840 306842 308841 310838 312834 314830 315826 316822 
 0.50 225051 237060 243065 250070 261081 266087 272093 278099 
      288103 295104 299100 299097 297092 291085 285081 277075 
      272072 265065 253054 248049 241045 235043 228041 
 1.00 403745 401741 396743 385748 376750 366756 356762 351766 
      349770 350773 353773 364768 373766 383764 393762 398759 
      401754 403745 
 1.00 386950 385942 383936 379932 373929 364926 360927 356932 
      354938 353946 353960 353974 353982 353992 354996 356998 
      364995 372988 375984 377978 381963 382958 385952 386950 
 1.50 396753 393753 390753 388753 387753 383753 382753 380753 
      378755 377756 378759 379759 383760 384760 386760 389759 
      391757 394756 396753 
 1.50 383947 381941 377938 368936 363938 361942 359948 358952 
      357963 357969 359977 359983 360988 363991 366990 372982 
      375971 376960 377956 381951 383947 
 2.00 380948 378944 372943 367945 363948 362952 361959 361966 
      362973 364980 366985 369983 371979 372971 372964 372960 
      374955 376951 380948  
 
24HR QP VT 26/00Z
 0.01 223077 247096 260107 268113 274118 284132 286134 292137 
      298139 304141 308141 313135 317130 321121 326115 332113 
      335116 345130 351132 356131 364127 370126 377128 385133 
      391139 395150 398160 399165 402169 412183 416191 418194 
      422196 437185 442179 443171 443166 437163 431162 424159 
      421155 422146 423138 425131 428127 438125 447124 452122 
      455118 455111 455104 455101 453098 445094 441092 437092 
      431091 429092 427099 427104 423107 417109 412103 409091 
      410085 412077 410068 409064 409048 409041 407033 406029 
      402024 392024 373033 357030 356022 353013 352007 354003 
      360994 365987 368985 373984 380983 387980 391979 394977 
      396975 400967 400958 399950 398944 400939 398924 397919 
      395913 387911 371906 363905 360902 358899 361879 364869 
      368860 376840 384821 387813 389808 393803 400797 406792 
      412782 419775 425768 429759 432749 433738 432729 428724 
      425718 423712 420703 417696 413695 407697 397699 392709 
      387718 383723 379726 363737 353742 343750 338755 333761 
      327768 317775 307781 301786 281798 263799 254799 249800 
      245802 241809 240815 240820 241824 244827 249827 257828 
      265832 270837 273842 275848 278856 283865 288873 290885 
      289895 289905 290919 291931 291939 288949 286955 283964 
      282971 284980 286982 291981 297974 301967 304963 304967 
      303980 302992 300003 298006 296008 280035 272040 269041 
      266041 251036 228027 
 0.25 417744 413738 409735 403736 395738 373749 359756 353759 
      345765 339773 334782 330795 327799 322804 315812 306814 
      301814 295816 282816 266809 261807 255807 254811 257815 
      266820 274823 279825 282829 287845 290852 292858 298866 
      303868 307872 313884 317887 320887 322885 326877 332867 
      339856 343847 345844 349843 353844 357840 360836 367823 
      370817 370812 367808 363801 363794 367789 379780 385776 
      391772 404767 409762 414755 417749 417744 
 0.25 389957 389950 389942 387935 385932 381929 376928 367925 
      351920 345917 341911 338906 332908 326914 325918 324925 
      321929 319933 317941 315950 312967 311978 312989 313997 
      311004 307011 298024 290037 283054 280057 275059 269058 
      264056 257053 248051 241051 234051 231054 232058 236064 
      248077 258088 269099 274104 280109 288114 294115 299115 
      302112 304107 306098 313085 317075 319071 323070 342064 
      348064 350064 352066 348075 346083 348086 352087 355086 
      358079 361071 365060 370053 375053 379056 384057 392053 
      393049 389046 380046 373049 369050 366049 362047 351046 
      343042 338038 333031 331021 330015 328008 324000 325992 
      326987 330977 334970 339964 346958 354956 375956 383959 
      389957 
 0.50 405756 404751 401748 397747 385750 372755 359763 352768 
      348771 345777 343781 342787 347783 357776 364774 369774 
      374773 380771 392767 399764 402761 405756 
 0.50 378945 377941 378937 376934 371933 368931 362930 356932 
      353932 347931 344928 342924 340921 337920 335922 330930 
      325937 321946 319954 318963 317970 317977 320982 322978 
      332962 337955 344948 347947 350946 352946 359949 371948 
      374945 378945 378945 
 0.50 327856 325849 321844 320841 321836 320830 316827 307826 
      301824 295825 292830 292835 293843 296849 299853 305853 
      309855 313860 318869 321869 323867 325862 327856 
 0.50 339055 340051 338047 335044 331039 329035 326021 324018 
      321017 314019 305023 301027 298031 296036 294043 294051 
      296059 297065 299071 303071 305069 309065 312060 316058 
      323056 330057 337056 339055 
 0.50 299103 300099 301093 299086 296081 288079 277074 266068 
      261065 256061 250058 243060 252069 258078 266087 274096 
      279102 285106 291109 297107 299103 
 1.00 392759 388757 385758 384760 386761 388761 389761 392759 
      392759 
 1.00 325048 326045 325042 324039 321032 318029 312030 307031 
      303033 301036 300043 302047 305051 310052 316051 321050 
      325048 
 1.00 293097 293094 291091 290090 288089 285088 283087 282087 
      280089 279090 280092 280093 281096 282098 285099 288100 
      290100 293097 
 1.50 319045 320042 319039 318038 316036 315035 312035 310035 
      307036 306036 304040 304043 307046 310047 313047 316047 
      318046 319045  
 
$$