AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
245 PM MDT THU SEP 14 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)                                                            
MAIN CONCERNS REMAIN PRECIP CHANCES...WINDS AND TEMPERATURES ACROSS             
THE REGION WITH PASSING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM.                                     
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING               
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND               
ASSOCIATED 80+ KT JET CORE MOVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ATTM.              
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATING DRIER AIR ACROSS THE DESERT SW              
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS FILTERING INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN                
COLORADO WITH AMPLE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ACROSS            
THE GREAT BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ATTM. AT THE SFC...LEE TROUGH            
DEEPENING ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR WITH DEEP MIXING ACROSS THE THE              
SE PLAINS KEEPING BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN PLACE ATTM.                
REGIONAL RADARS INDICATING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS            
EASTERN UTAH MOVING INTO EXTREME WESTERN COLORADO WITH ISOLATED TO              
SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO ATTM.             
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE ACROSS           
THE REGION AS SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET MOVE ACROSS SOUTH                   
CENTRAL COLORADO THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH                  
PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS A STRONG PAC NW SYSTEM CONTINUES TO            
DIVE INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT                      
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM PROGGED TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN AND                
WESTERN COLORADO AS DRIER AIR ACROSS THE DESERT SW CONTINUES TO                 
FILTER INTO THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE STATE.  WITH THAT                       
SAID...HAVE KEPT HIGH SCATTERED TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SW AND                
CENTRAL MTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...WITH SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE              
HIGH MT VALLEYS THROUGH THE EASTERN MTS. HAVE KEPT GENERALLY                    
ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND FAR SE PLAINS THROUGH THE            
EVENING AS WELL. MODELS SOUNDINGS INDICATING CAPES TO BETWEEN                   
400-800 J/KG AND WITH THE INCREASING FLOW ALOFT...BULK SHEARS ARE               
INCREASING AS WELL...THOUGH MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SAVE THE I-25                 
CORRIDOR...WHERE A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE MARGINAL HAIL AND GUSTS             
UP TO 40 MPH. WITH DEEPENING LEE TROUGH AND INCREASING FLOW                     
ALOFT...GRADIENT/GAP WINDS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE LOWER              
EASTERN SLOPES...ALONG WITH AN EXPECTED MIXED LAYER ACROSS THE FAR              
EASTERN PLAINS...TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND            
HAVE GONE AT OR ABOVE GUIDANCE TEMPS OVERNIGHT. WITH CONTINUED                  
MODERATE SW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND DRIER AIR ACROSS EASTERN                   
COLORADO...SHOULD SEE BREEZY TO WINDY AND WARM CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN            
AS THE PLAINS MIX OUT QUICK TOMORROW MORNING. HAVE KEPT ISOLATED TO             
SCATTERED POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SW AND CENTRAL MTS AND HIGH MT               
VALLEYS...WITH PROXIMITY TO BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT AHEAD OF PAC NW              
SYSTEM. -MW                                                                     
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(SAT THROUGH THU)                                                               
...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT...                                   
...HIGH TERRAIN MOUNTAIN SNOW CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SAT THROUGH SUN...              
...POSSIBLE WIDESPREAD FREEZING CONDITIONS MOUNTAIN VALLEYS SUN...              
MODEL DISCUSSION...WRF TRENDING TOWARDS A SLOWER SOLUTION...LIKE                
THE GFS...ON THE WEATHER SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND                
CENTRAL ROCKIES. WRF AND GFS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE UPPER LEVEL               
JET STREAM A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH OVER NORTHERN CO FOR SAT. GENERALLY           
WENT WITH A BLEND OF WRF AND GFS SAT AND STAYED CLOSE TO CURRENT                
FORECAST BEYOND.                                                                
SAT...90-120 KT H25 UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS               
NORTHERN CO WITH THE ASSOCIATED H5 CLOSED LOW OVER WY/MT. VERY                  
CHALLENGING MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE               
MAY STAY MIXED DUE TO INCREASING WINDS ALOFT AND LEE SIDE                       
TROUGH/DRYLINE NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER. WILL TWEAK MINIMUM                        
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES...WHICH MIGHT NOT BE ENOUGH. DEEP                    
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND               
THE AIR MASS IS PRETTY "DRY". H5-H3 RELATIVELY HUMIDITY IS                      
FORECAST TO BE 5-20 PERCENT...WHICH DOESN'T SUPPORT MUCH IN THE                 
WAY OF CLOUDS AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD GET WIPED OUT                   
GIVEN THE DEEP MIXING. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST TO DROP                  
CONSIDERABLY SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONCEPTUALLY AND GIVEN THE              
LACK OF MOISTURE IN THIS PATTERN...THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION              
IS PRETTY LOW OR NIL...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY THE CENTRAL CO MOUNTAINS.            
WILL LEAVE SOME SMALL POPS/WX IN THIS AREA. THERE COULD BE SOME                 
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SAWATCH AND              
MOSQUITO MOUNTAIN RANGES. THE MORE NOTICEABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER                  
SHOULD BE THE WIND. PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST AT LEAST BREEZY TO WINDY              
CONDITIONS. THE PREVIOUSLY PROJECTED BORA PATTERN IS NOT AS STRONG              
THIS MODEL RUN...HOWEVER...H5 WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 50-70KTS                 
DURING PEAK HEATING AND PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCES SAT AFTERNOON...               
SO WILL MAINTAIN A BREEZY TO WINDY FORECAST. HAVE WIND GUSTS GOING              
20-30KTS ABOVE WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY ABOVE 7K FT MSL. WOULD NOT BE              
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME 45KT GUSTS IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...WALSENBURG            
AREA...AND OTHER FAVORED "HIGH WIND" CHANNELLING LOCATIONS.                     
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE A CHALLENGE TOO. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL              
JET STREAM A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH AND ONLY A WEAK COLD FRONT                    
MOVING THROUGH CO...H7 TEMPERATURES JUMP UP TO +10 TO +12C...WHICH              
WOULD SUPPORT 80S TO NEAR 90F IN SOUTHEASTERN CO. GIVEN THE WIND                
SPEEDS AND LOWERING HUMIDITY VALUES...WOULD BE A LITTLE CONCERNED               
ABOUT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS WE ARE STILL IN MODERATE              
DROUGHT...BUT IT HAS BEEN SO WET IN THE PAST MONTHS. THE BLM FUEL               
MOISTURE STATUS WEB PAGE INDICATES FUELS ARE CRITICAL FOR LARGE FIRE            
GROWTH...SO UNSURE WHAT TO BELIEVE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR                    
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SAT AFTERNOON AND MAY NEED FIRE                
WEATHER HEADLINES ON SAT.                                                       
SUN...CHALLENGING FORECASTS THIS DAY. GIVEN MUCH LOWER DEW                      
POINTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS...EARLY                   
MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES COULD REACH INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE UPPER              
AR RIVER...WET MOUNTAIN...AND SAN LUIS VALLEYS. TOUGH CALL. MOS                 
HAS TWEAKED UP TO AROUND 30F AT KALS. JUST DEPENDS IF THE SURFACE               
WIND CAN DECOUPLE SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING. GFS TRIES TO DEVELOP                   
ANOTHER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INCLUDING PRECIPITATION. SINCE             
THIS IS SUCH A DRASTIC CHANGE...PLAN TO IGNORE. TAIL-END OF THE                 
WRF INDICATES NORTHWESTERLY "DRY" FLOW. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES                    
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY COOLER ON SUN.                                             
MON THROUGH THU...GFS IS ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH CLOSED LOWS                    
MIGRATING EASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. PLAN               
TO STICK CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW. STILL COULD                 
GET RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD FREEZING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN               
HIGH VALLEYS...INCLUDING THE SAN LUIS VALLEY MON AND TUE. LOOKS                 
LIKE WE MAY BE HEADING INTO AN ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM                    
DIRECTLY OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT GENERALLY               
MILD AND BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. METZE                                         
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
23/17                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1001 PM EDT THU SEP 14 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
FOG IS ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB UNDER             
CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OVER LOWER                  
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND AMPLE                 
MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 2000 FT NEAR THE SURFACE...SUPPORTED BY THE              
00Z DTX SOUNDING...WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD DENSE             
FOG. THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING DID SHOW A STRONG INVERSION NEAR 5K FT.               
DESPITE THIS INVERSION...DRY AIR ADVECTION NEAR THIS LEVEL IS                   
ALLOWING THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST                
AREA TO DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY. THERE IS ALSO A LOW STRATUS DECK               
OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. THE 12KM NAM HAS A REASONABLE HANDLE ON               
THIS STRATUS DECK AND ESSENTIALLY SUGGESTS THE CLOUDS WILL NOT MAKE             
MUCH ADDITIONAL PROGRESS WEST INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE A               
DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA                 
THROUGH 10 AM FRI MORNING. THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND AFFECT AND A LITTLE            
STRONGER WINDS FORECAST ATOP THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION MAY LIMIT THE              
DURATION OF THE DENSE FOG WITHIN THE CITY OF DETROIT AND INNER                  
SUBURBS TO A BRIEF PERIOD AROUND SUNRISE.                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 715 PM EDT THU SEP 14 2006                            
.AVIATION...                                                                    
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FOG WILL BE A BIG AVIATION CONCERN TONIGHT              
AND FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CENTER ITSELF OVER THE STATE             
TONIGHT. SATELLITE DATA EARLY THIS EVENING HAS BEEN SHOWING A                   
CLEARING TREND AT ALL THE TAF SITES. CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND              
HIGH SOIL MOISTURE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL FOG               
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. RECENT TAMDAR SOUNDINGS OUT OF DTW INDICATE                
MOISTURE SLIGHTLY INCREASING WITH HEIGHT IN THE LOWEST COUPLE                   
HUNDRED FEET OF THE SOUNDING AND WITH CROSSOVER TEMPS IN THE MID                
50S...SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE EXPECTED MIN TEMPS...DENSE FOG WILL BE              
LIKELY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING. WILL CARRY SEVERAL               
HOURS OF QUARTER MILE VISIBILITY AT FNT AND MBS. THE COMBINATION OF             
THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND AFFECT AND A LITTLE STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS              
JUST ATOP THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION MAY BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT DENSE FOG            
AT DTW AND DET. ALSO HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT LOW STRATUS DECK OVER               
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON MAY BUILD INTO THE DETROIT AREA LATE TONIGHT.               
WILL THUS KEEP VISIBILITIES JUST ABOVE A HALF A MILE IN THE DETROIT             
TAFS AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DENSE FOG POTENTIAL THROUGH THE                
NIGHT.                                                                          
BASED ON OBS IN WISCONSIN YESTERDAY AND GIVEN THE LOWER MID                     
SEPTEMBER SUN ANGLE...FOG SHOULD NOT MIX OUT UNTIL 13-15Z.                      
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 344 PM EDT THU SEP 14 2006                             
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY                                                 
12Z RAOBS/WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW THE UPPER LOW DOWNSTREAM OVER THE               
LOWER GREAT LAKES...WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL                 
CONUS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI               
VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. VIS SATELLITE SHOWS A HEALTHY                
MVFR/VFR CLOUD FIELD...BEGINNING TO MIX OUT ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER               
AND THE THUMB BUT HOLDING FAST ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA.             
18Z/19Z TAMDAR SOUNDINGS SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE             
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...MORE THAN 15Z RUC/12Z NAM WOULD INDICATE.               
CLOUDS ACROSS THE THUMB HAVE MIXED INTO A DIURNAL CU DECK WHICH WILL            
DISSIPATE BEFORE SUNSET...WHILE THE THICKER STRATOCU DECK ACROSS THE            
THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN CWA MAY LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVENING.                
STILL EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL INCREASE CLOUD             
COVER THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS MAY HAVE SOME IMPACT ON DENSE FOG               
POTENTIAL TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN BY            
12Z FRIDAY...WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS ACROSS THE CWA. NAM/GFS BOTH                
SHOW GOOD LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...INCLUDING SURFACE CONDENSATION                   
PRESSURE DEFICITS BELOW 10MB. THERE WAS PRETTY WIDESPREAD FOG WITH              
VISIBILITIES 1/4SM OR BELOW UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS UPSTREAM ACROSS                
WISCONSIN THIS MORNING...AS WELL AS SOME FOG REPORTS ACROSS NORTHERN            
ONTARIO WHERE OUR AIRMASS WILL ORIGINATE ON DIMINISHING NORTHERLY               
WINDS. WILL ADD AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO               
FRIDAY MORNING. WAS ON THE FENCE ABOUT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS             
POINT...AND DECIDED TO HOLD OFF GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW QUICKLY             
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING...AS WELL AS HOW LOWER DEWPOINTS             
WILL MIX DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER AS THE NORTHERN CLOUDS                      
DISSIPATE. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S LOOK GOOD...WITH LOWER 50S ACROSS              
THE SOUTHERN CWA WITH THE MORE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER.                          
UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY...WITH THE              
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING DOWNSTREAM TO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. RETURN FLOW              
WILL REMAIN PRETTY WEAK BEHIND THE HIGH...AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAY.             
EVEN WITH FULL SUN...GFS LOOKS TOO WARM WITH REMNANT THERMAL TROUGH             
LINGERING OVER THE REGION. WILL DROP HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW                    
DEGREES...GENERALLY INTO THE MID 70S FOR FRIDAY. 19Z READINGS THIS              
AFTERNOON ACROSS WISCONSIN WERE ONLY AROUND 70 TO THE LOW 70S.                  
LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY                                       
WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART AS MODELS STILL            
SUGGEST A WARMUP THROUGH SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES TO THE EAST            
OF A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST & NORTHERN PLAINS.            
WILL ALSO KEEP THE DRY FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY IN THIS PATTERN.                 
AS UPPER LOW SPINS UP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THIS TROUGH ON              
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS STILL SUGGEST AN OCCLUDED COLD FRONT               
WILL SHIFT INTO LOWER MICHIGAN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND PROGRESS TO THE            
EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY MONDAY. THIS SUPPORTS THE 40% CHANCE OF              
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.                                 
THEREAFTER...SHOWERY WEATHER BECOMES ESTABLISHED IN COLD WEST FLOW              
OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. WILL BRING THESE              
SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY TAPER THEM BACK BY            
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BASICALLY TRIMMING AWAY THE SOUTHERN EXTENT DURING            
THE TIMEFRAME.                                                                  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DECIDEDLY COOLER NEXT WEEK...AS COMPARED TO THE            
WEEKEND. MONDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION DAY AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES              
THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGHS WILL BE IN               
THE LOWER 60S TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY IN THE CORE OF THIS COMING COOL AIR             
WITH A SLIGHT MODIFICATION BY THURSDAY. LOWS WILL HOLD PRETTY MUCH              
IN THE 40S THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME AS CLOUDS AND A STEADY WEST WIND              
ACT TO MODERATE THE NIGHTTIME COOLING.                                          
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...ALL SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...MIDNIGHT UNTIL 10            
AM.                                                                             
LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...BRAVENDER                                                          
LONG TERM....DG                                                                 
AVIATION/UPDATE...CONSIDINE                                                     
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
950 PM EDT THU SEP 14 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
FEW CHGS NECESSARY TO GOING FCST. MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS               
BASED ON CURRENT REPORTS AND EXPANDED AREA OF FCST PTCHY FOG INTO               
THE INTERIOR WCNTRL WHERE FCST LO TEMPS ARE BLO CROSSOVER TEMPS IN              
THE UPR 40S. ALSO...DRY WEDGE APRNT ON WV IMAGERY APRCHG FM THE SW              
SHOULD ALLOW EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT                
COUPLE OF HRS. BUT RUC FCST INCRSG SW FLOW OVERNGT IN SHARPENING                
PRES GRADIENT BTWN HI CENTERED OVER THE CNTRL LKS/LO PRES IN THE                
PLAINS SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS FM FALLING TOO QUICKLY/FOG FM GETTING               
TOO WDSPRD/DENSE.                                                               
KC                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 443 PM EDT)...                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERN TODAY WAS THE TIMING OF PCPN FROM THE APPROACHING             
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.                                                            
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A STRENGTHENING HIGH-AMPLITUDE                 
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US. A TROUGH OUT WEST HAS CLOSED AND DEEPENED            
AND THE CLOSED LOW OUT EAST HAS WEAKENED. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ARE            
APPARENT IN MPX/GRB 12Z SNDGS. HENCE THE SUNNY SKIES AND BEAUTIFUL              
WEATHER. SOME SMOKE HAS BEEN OBSERVED OUTSIDE...ADVECTED IN FROM                
WILDFIRES IN ONTARIO AND THE WESTERN STATES. KEPT PATCHY FOG EAST               
DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS RIGHT NOW              
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AND DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. WINDS WILL              
BE PICKING UP ACROSS THE WEST HALF WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP            
AND PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING. THE NAM HAS MOISTURE FROM NE ILLINOIS             
ADVECTING INTO OUR CWA WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND WITH HIGH TEMPS               
EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 70S TOMORROW...INCREASED CLOUDS INLAND FOR CU             
DEVELOPMENT.                                                                    
A SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS KICKING UP A SFC                        
LOW OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY                     
STRENGTHEN AND TRACK ACROSS THE MN/MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER...AND                
THEN ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR AROUND 00Z MON.                              
WITH THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN                       
DAKOTAS...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUD COVER SATURDAY AFTERNOON                      
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. STRONG SOUTHERLY            
WINDS WILL GIVE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S SAT AND ONLY DOWN              
TO THE 60S SAT NIGHT. GFS PUTS PCPN ACROSS OUR CWA SAT AND SAT NIGHT            
SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST...AND CONCENTRATED PRIMARILY                        
NORTH...ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE. MUCH HIGHER PRECIPITABLE                
WATER VALUES COMPARED TO THE CURRENT TIME ALSO SUPPORT THE                      
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME PCPN. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO PASS THROUGH OUR             
CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.                                                           
THERE IS A QUESTION ABOUT WHEN OR HOW MUCH THE DRY SLOT WILL AFFECT             
OUR CWA. KEPT POPS A CHANCE DURING FROPA DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY.               
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FUTURE RUNS TO PINPOINT WHETHER OR NOT THERE               
WILL BE PCPN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...IF THE DRY SLOT WILL ACTUALLY PAN             
OUT...AND WHEN TO END CONVECTION AFTER THE FROPA.                               
THE 06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE TRACK OF THE SFC            
AND UPPER LEVEL LOWS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z MON BEFORE THEY START TO                 
DIVERGE. THE ECMWF KEEPS A LONGWAVE TROF FROM ONTARIO-TX...AND THE              
GFS HAS A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO WITH            
A TROF THROUGH TX AND A RIDGE FROM SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH THE                     
SOUTHWESTERN US. THE 06Z GFS PUTS OUR CWA UNDER SFC HIGH PRES AT 00Z            
WED WITH ANOTHER LOW APPROACHING BY 00Z THU. THE ECMWF KEEPS OUR CWA            
IN A NW WIND FLOW PATTERN (HIGH PRES TO WEST) THROUGH 12Z WED BEFORE            
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SETTLE IN. BOTH MODELS AGREE THERE WILL BE              
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS NEXT THU               
BUT THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT ON THE TIMING. WENT                
WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS AND EXPECT SLOWER TIMING OF            
THE PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAN THE GFS. ENDED             
CHANCE OF PCPN BY WED AFTERNOON...THINKING THAT THE ECMWF CLOSED                
500MB LOW MIGHT LINGER A LITTLE WHILE LONGER OVER EASTERN CANADA AND            
THE NEXT SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SLOWER TO ENTER OUR REGION.            
THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH 12Z TUE. BY               
12Z WED THE GFS STILL KEEPS A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WITH A RIDGE               
STRETCHING ALL THE WAY UP INTO NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND TROUGHS ON             
EITHER SIDE...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN                 
CANADA...A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US...AND ANOTHER CLOSED LOW              
OVER MT/WY BORDER. GOING FCST OF PREV MODEL COMPROMISE SEEMS OK FOR             
NOW. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON FUTURE SOLNS.                                  
MRE                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
443 PM EDT THU SEP 14 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERN TODAY WAS THE TIMING OF PCPN FROM THE APPROACHING             
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.                                                            
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A STRENGTHENING HIGH-AMPLITUDE                 
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US. A TROUGH OUT WEST HAS CLOSED AND DEEPENED            
AND THE CLOSED LOW OUT EAST HAS WEAKENED. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ARE            
APPARENT IN MPX/GRB 12Z SNDGS. HENCE THE SUNNY SKIES AND BEAUTIFUL              
WEATHER. SOME SMOKE HAS BEEN OBSERVED OUTSIDE...ADVECTED IN FROM                
WILDFIRES IN ONTARIO AND THE WESTERN STATES. KEPT PATCHY FOG EAST               
DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS RIGHT NOW              
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AND DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. WINDS WILL              
BE PICKING UP ACROSS THE WEST HALF WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP            
AND PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING. THE NAM HAS MOISTURE FROM NE ILLINOIS             
ADVECTING INTO OUR CWA WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND WITH HIGH TEMPS               
EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 70S TOMORROW...INCREASED CLOUDS INLAND FOR CU             
DEVELOPMENT.                                                                    
A SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS KICKING UP A SFC                        
LOW OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY                     
STRENGTHEN AND TRACK ACROSS THE MN/MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER...AND                
THEN ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR AROUND 00Z MON.                              
WITH THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN                       
DAKOTAS...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUD COVER SATURDAY AFTERNOON                      
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. STRONG SOUTHERLY            
WINDS WILL GIVE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S SAT AND ONLY DOWN              
TO THE 60S SAT NIGHT. GFS PUTS PCPN ACROSS OUR CWA SAT AND SAT NIGHT            
SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST...AND CONCENTRATED PRIMARILY                        
NORTH...ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE. MUCH HIGHER PRECIPITABLE                
WATER VALUES COMPARED TO THE CURRENT TIME ALSO SUPPORT THE                      
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME PCPN. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO PASS THROUGH OUR             
CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.                                                           
THERE IS A QUESTION ABOUT WHEN OR HOW MUCH THE DRY SLOT WILL AFFECT             
OUR CWA. KEPT POPS A CHANCE DURING FROPA DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY.               
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FUTURE RUNS TO PINPOINT WHETHER OR NOT THERE               
WILL BE PCPN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...IF THE DRY SLOT WILL ACTUALLY PAN             
OUT...AND WHEN TO END CONVECTION AFTER THE FROPA.                               
THE 06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE TRACK OF THE SFC            
AND UPPER LEVEL LOWS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z MON BEFORE THEY START TO                 
DIVERGE. THE ECMWF KEEPS A LONGWAVE TROF FROM ONTARIO-TX...AND THE              
GFS HAS A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO WITH            
A TROF THROUGH TX AND A RIDGE FROM SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH THE                     
SOUTHWESTERN US. THE 06Z GFS PUTS OUR CWA UNDER SFC HIGH PRES AT 00Z            
WED WITH ANOTHER LOW APPROACHING BY 00Z THU. THE ECMWF KEEPS OUR CWA            
IN A NW WIND FLOW PATTERN (HIGH PRES TO WEST) THROUGH 12Z WED BEFORE            
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SETTLE IN. BOTH MODELS AGREE THERE WILL BE              
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS NEXT THU               
BUT THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT ON THE TIMING. WENT                
WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS AND EXPECT SLOWER TIMING OF            
THE PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAN THE GFS. ENDED             
CHANCE OF PCPN BY WED AFTERNOON...THINKING THAT THE ECMWF CLOSED                
500MB LOW MIGHT LINGER A LITTLE WHILE LONGER OVER EASTERN CANADA AND            
THE NEXT SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SLOWER TO ENTER OUR REGION.            
THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH 12Z TUE. BY               
12Z WED THE GFS STILL KEEPS A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WITH A RIDGE               
STRETCHING ALL THE WAY UP INTO NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND TROUGHS ON             
EITHER SIDE...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN                 
CANADA...A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US...AND ANOTHER CLOSED LOW              
OVER MT/WY BORDER. GOING FCST OF PREV MODEL COMPROMISE SEEMS OK FOR             
NOW. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON FUTURE SOLNS.                                  
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MRE                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1035 AM EDT THU SEP 14 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...MID MORNING SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM            
EASTERN ONTARIO SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN U.P. AND INTO IL. VIS             
IMAGERY SHOWING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE               
EXCEPTION OF EASTERN AREAS...LUCE CO EASTWARD...WHERE MORNING FOG               
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BURN OFF. AS SFC RIDGE MOVES EAST TODAY BROAD               
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA AHEAD OF                   
DIGGING UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. CURRENT TEMPS ARE                 
GENERALLY RUNNING IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 AND WITH ABUNDANT                 
SUNSHINE EXPECTED TODAY COMBINED WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION AFTERNOON             
TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT NEAR PROJECTED MAXES IN THE 70S. WILL NOT MAKE             
ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO ONGOING FCST...BUT WILL UPDATE ZFP TO                
REMOVE MORNING FOG WORDING.                                                     
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT THU SEP 14 2006)...WITH              
WARM...DRY WEATHER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...FCST CONCERNS ARE MINOR. DOWN            
THE ROAD...TIMING PROGRESSION OF DEEP WRN TROF AND ITS ASSOCIATED               
WEATHER INTO THE CNTRL CONUS AND GREAT LAKES LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY            
NEXT WEEK WILL BE AN ISSUE.                                                     
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW PRONOUNCED TROF                       
AMPLIFICATION BEGINNING OVER SW CANADA INTO THE WRN CONUS                       
DOWNSTREAM OF A RIDGE BUILDING THRU ALASKA. 00Z RAOBS SHOWED 12HR               
500MB HEIGHT RISES OF 100M IN NW CANADA WHILE HEIGHT FALLS UPWARDS              
OF 140M WERE NOTED OVER THE PACIFIC NW. AMPLIFYING WRN TROF WILL                
LEAD TO BUILDING OF THE CURRENTLY LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL            
CONUS. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS FROM LAKE SUPERIOR                  
ACROSS UPPER MI AND WI. IR AND 11-3.9MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW              
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE UPPER LAKES. A SMALL PATCH OF DENSE CI WAS                 
MOVING E ACROSS CNTRL MN WHILE SHIELD OF CLOUDS OVER SRN                        
SASKATCHEWAN/SRN MANITOBA/NW ONTARIO IS GENERALLY HEADING ENE.                  
11-3.9MICRON IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES WIDESPREAD FOG HAS DEVELOPED                
OVER THE ERN FCST AREA...GENERALLY E OF A MUNISING TO MANISTIQUE                
LINE. FOG IS PATCHY ELSEWHERE ACROSS FCST AREA...BUT IT APPEARS FOG             
IS EXPANDING OVER FAR SCNTRL UPPER PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE.                  
AS MENTIONED...AMPLIFYING WRN TROF WILL LEAD TO DOWNSTREAM RIDGE                
BUILDING OVER THE CNTRL CONUS. MODELS SHOW THIS RIDGE MOVING TO THE             
WRN GREAT LAKES REGION BY FRI MORNING AND TO THE CNTRL LAKES BY SAT             
MORNING. MEANWHILE...ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE CURRENTLY                   
EXTENDING ACROSS UPPER MI WILL MOVE THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY SAT              
MORNING. END RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF WARM MID SEPT WEATHER UNDER             
PERSISTENT SRLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. RH TIME SECTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW               
PLENTY OF DRY AIR DOMINATING THE AREA THRU FRI NIGHT...SUPPORTING               
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...THERE IS ONE EXCEPTION. NAM CONTINUES             
TO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND            
AGAIN FRI NIGHT. TO A MUCH LESSER DEGREE...GFS HINTS AT THIS AS                 
WELL. THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS TIED TO THE DEPARTING AREA OF                  
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING THRU THE UPPER OHIO            
VALLEY. NAM SHOWS RETURN FLOW BRINGING SOME OF THIS MOISTURE N INTO             
THE UPPER LAKES. SEEMS LIKE AN UNLIKELY SCENARIO AS DAYTIME HEATING             
WILL WORK TO MIX OUT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THAT MAY BEGIN TO SLIP BACK             
TO THE N OR NW TODAY AND FRI. SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO BE LOOKED             
AT MORE CLOSELY IS THE POSSIBILITY OF STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPING                    
DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN OVER THE ERN FCST AREA. WITH TEMPS                    
DROPPING INTO THE 40S OVER THE E TONIGHT...SRLY FLOW JUST OFF THE               
SFC AND RESULTING MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF LAKE MICHIGAN OVER THE COOL            
SFC LAYER MIGHT LEAD TO STRATUS/FOG FORMING. FOR NOW...WILL INCLUDE             
A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG OVER THE ERN FCST AREA OVERNIGHT. FOG                   
COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE. THERE MIGHT BE SOME FOG OVER THE CNTRL              
FCST AREA...BUT NOT EXPECTING IT TO LIMIT VSBY MUCH (3-5SM)...AND               
WILL LEAVE OUT OF FCST. LOOKS LIKE A SIMILAR SETUP FRI NIGHT...BUT              
WITH A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT OVER THE AREA...STRONGER WINDS SHOULD              
PREVENT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT THAT WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VSBY.               
AS FOR TEMPS...GOING FCST LOOKS ON TRACK. MIXING TO AROUND 825MB ON             
NAM/GFS FCST SOUNDINGS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80              
TODAY. THIS IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GFS MOS GUIDANCE. IT            
WILL BE COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WITH LIGHT SRLY FLOW AND LOCALLY              
COOLER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AS LAKE BREEZES SHOULD KICK IN UNDER WEAK             
GRADIENT TODAY. GFS COOP GUIDANCE (LOW/MID 40S) IN THE TYPICAL COOL             
SPOTS LOOKS REASONABLE FOR TONIGHT. WILL BE WARMEST (50S) OVER THE              
FAR W/NW UNDER STRONGER SRLY FLOW. MIXING TO 825MB YIELDS HIGHS IN              
THE UPPER 70S/LWR 80S FRI...SIMILAR TO GFS MOS. WILL AGAIN BE COOLER            
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. GRADIENT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PREVENT ANY                  
COOLING NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...EXCEPT E SIDE OF THE KEWEENAW.                     
OVER THE WEEKEND...THERE HAS BEEN A TREND IN THE GFS TO BE FASTER               
WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WRN TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC                
LOW/COLD FRONT. 18Z/00Z RUNS SHOW FRONT MOVING INTO WRN UPPER MI                
EARLY SUN AFTN. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE 00Z ECMWF. HAVE THUS MADE                
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SPEED UP FROPA FROM GOING FCST WHICH HAD              
TIMING ROUGHLY SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING. BEFORE THEN...NAM/GFS/UKMET               
INDICATE A SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF WRN TROF WHICH MAY JUST BRUSH              
THE WRN FCST AREA WITH SOME SHRA DURING THE DAY SAT. IF THIS FEATURE            
IS STILL PRESENT IN NEXT SET OF MODEL RUNS...WILL NEED TO CONSIDER              
INTRODUCING CHC POPS OVER THE FAR WRN FCST AREA SAT AFTN.                       
OTHERWISE...SPREADING PCPN CHC W TO E SAT NIGHT LOOKS FINE. THERE               
WILL LIKELY BE A DRY PERIOD BEHIND FROPA AS DRY SLOT SPREADS ACROSS             
THE AREA...BUT DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT IN FCST...WILL            
NOT INTRODUCE AT THIS POINT. CHILLY...UNSETTLED WEATHER ON TAP LATER            
MON/TUE AS DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW SETTLES OVER THE AREA. LAKE EFFECT                
SHRA WILL CRANK UP UNDER MOIST/CYCLONIC FLOW WITH 850MB TEMPS DOWN              
BLO 0C. GOING FCST MAX TEMPS TUE MAY BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC.                       
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PREV DISCUSSION...ROLFSON                                                       
UPDATE...MZ                                                                     
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
940 PM CDT THU SEP 14 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL JUST UPDATE TO REMOVE EVNING              
CLD WORDING. TMPS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY SLOW TO FALL OFF THIS EVNG IN                
THE NW CWA WHERE THE SFC HAS REMAINED COUPLED AND WIND GUSTS CONT.              
IN CONTRAST THE SE FA HAS FALLEN OFF MORE SIG WITH TMPS ALREADY                 
DOWN IN THE MID 60S. GRADIENT OF GOING LOW FORECAST HAS THIS                    
COVERED WELL AND WILL JUST UPDATE THE HOURLY TMPS FOR A QUICKER                 
FALL IN THE SE.                                                                 
WL CONT TO LEAVE THE FORECAST TONIGHT DRY. 00Z UPPR AIR ANLYS                   
INDCD POTENT SHRTWV TROF OVR CO/KS/TX AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPR LVL                
WAVE. MOISTURE AT H85 CONTD TO INCREASE OVR THE SRN PLAINS WITH A               
+15 C DEWPOINT UP TO CENTRAL TX AND +10 C WELL INTO THE NORTHERN                
PLAINS. DESPITE THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE...THE EML IS ALSO                     
INCREASING ACRS THE CNTRL PLAINS THIS EVNG WITH A H7 TMP OF +10 C               
AT KOAX AT 00Z. THINK MOISTURE WL CONT TO STRM NWD TONIGHT                      
UNDER THE INVERSION...BUT NOT BE AT A DEPTH TO OVERCOME THE                     
INHIBITION UNTIL AFTER 12Z WHEN H85 DEWPOINTS IN THE SRN FA REACH               
+12 AND +13 C. THUS SCT HIGH-BASED TSRA WL BE POSSIBLE AFTR 12Z                 
FRI.                                                                            
NEW ZFP/GRIDS ALREADY SENT.                                                     
BOUSTEAD                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 315 PM CDT THU SEP 14 2006)                         
FORECAST CHALLENGES CENTER AROUND PCPN CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH                   
MONDAY.                                                                         
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN COMBINATION WITH RUC 500MB HEIGHT                 
ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER RIDGE MOVING EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER               
VALLEY REGION WHILE STRONG UPPER LOW SPINS OVER THE PACIFIC                     
NORTHWEST. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED 170M HEIGHT FALLS AT 500MB             
OVER OREGON. WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS ALSO EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY             
OVER NERN NEW MEXICO AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO ERN CO            
AND TO WRN NEB BY LATE TONIGHT. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE WAS                   
BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WITH FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL                  
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW. LOW LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUES            
ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS                              
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS               
ARE IN THE LOWER 60S.                                                           
THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND PUSH FURTHER              
EWD OVERNIGHT. GOOD THETA-E ADVECTION WITH 45KT LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD            
ADVECT ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE REGION BY MORNING TO ALLOW FOR A                
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS AFTER SUNRISE. DESPITE SHORTWAVE ENERGY                  
PASSING NEAR THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT...THINK                
SOUNDINGS ARE WAY TOO DRY TO BRING ANY PCPN TO THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT            
TONIGHT.                                                                        
LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS               
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF JET STREAK MOVES OVER THE REGION AND ANOTHER WK              
SHORTWAVE MOVES THRU MID LEVEL FLO. WL CONTINUE SCATTERED TSTM                  
CHANCES THRU THE DAY FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL JET BECOMES MORE SWRLY AND               
INCREASES TO 50KTS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AS THE POTENT UPPER STORM SYSTEM            
PUSHES EAST TOWARDS WYOMING. WILL CONTINUE POPS OVERNIGHT AND INTO              
SATURDAY AS FORCING FROM EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA.             
SATURDAY AFTERNOON STILL LOOKS LIKE A DECENT SVR WX SET UP AS                   
INSTABILITY INCREASES AHEAD OF PREFRONTAL TROF. NAM IS SLIGHTLY                 
FASTER ON PUSHING THIS FEATURE THRU THAN THE GFS AND HAVE GONE WITH             
THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS SOLUTION FOR TIMING THIS FEATURE. SHEAR                 
PROFILES STILL LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND THINK AFTERNOON                
INITIATION ACROSS THE CWA IS LIKELY. STORMS SHOULD BE QUICK TO MOVE             
EAST AS PREFRONTAL TROF PUSHES QUICKLY THRU THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA            
BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY BEHIND THIS FEATURE                
SHOULD END QUICKLY BY EARLY SUNDAY WITH TRUE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO            
THE AREA LATER ON SUNDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION             
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND                
DRAGS ENERGY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.                                           
COLDER AIR WILL BE THE MAIN STORY THRU THE WORK WEEK WITH -2C 850MB             
ISOTHERM STILL PROGGED TO SLIDE DOWN ON US EARLY TUESDAY. WITH HIGH             
PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...HAVE                  
LOWERED LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES SO WE RANGE IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH             
TO LOWER 40S SOUTH.                                                             
AS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIODS...FOLLOWED THE 06Z AND 12Z GFS. THIS                
MOVES ANOTHER UPPER TROF THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND RESULTANT SFC               
LOW INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MID WEEK. THIS PUTS US IN WARMER                 
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO REBOUND TEMPS INTO THE 70S BY WED. HAVE NOT                   
INCLUDED ANY PCPN FOR THIS PERIOD AS OF YET.                                    
GRIFFIS                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ne                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
920 AM EDT THU SEP 14 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM /TODAY - FRIDAY NGT/...                                             
UPDATE - WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE MID LVL CIRCULATION OVER NW PA. RUC              
AND LOCAL NAM RUN BRING THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION OVER THE CNTRL            
SRN TIER THIS AFTN. TWO MAIN AREAS OF PCPN - ONE OVER THE EAST IN               
THE WARM CONVEYER, AND ANOTHER OVER NW NYS WHERE WEAK DEFORMATION IS            
OCCURING IN THE NW QUAD OF THE UPR LOW. THE LATTER AREA OF PCPN IS              
TRYING TO LIFT OUT OF THE FINGER LAKES, BUT -RA ACRS SE SXNS SHUD               
PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE AFTN. WILL MONITOR AMTS BUT ATTM DO NOT XPCT            
ANY PRBLMS WITH RAINFALL ACRS SE ZONES. WE XPCT SHRA TO DVLP THIS               
AFTN UNDER THE CLOSED LOW AS IT'S ASSCD -14C COLD POOL MOVS INTO THE            
RGN, BUT BREAKS OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTN WILL BE HARD TO COME BY DUE TO            
THE LOW LVL MSTR, SO TSRA SHUD REMAIN ISOLD. MAY HAVE TO LOWER MAXES            
A FEW DEG, OTRW WILL PRETTY MUCH STAY WITH THE CRNT FCST, WITH                  
LIKELY TO CAT POPS THIS AFTN. PREV AFD BLO.                                     
COOL UL TROF IS ROTATING INTO NY/PA AS FORECAST. SHOWERS ARE                    
OVERSPREADING THE REGION AS THE MAIN SHORT WAVE ADVANCES AND JET                
EXITS TO THE EAST. MOST OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY IS LIGHT, THOUGH THERE             
IS EMBEDDED MODERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY INVOF SHORT WAVE.                          
WE ARE CONTINUING WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT COLD CORE ALOFT COULD             
PROVIDE ENOUGH MID LEVEL INSTABILITY FOR WIDELY SCT OR ISOLATED                 
THUNDER TODAY. PLENTY OF LIGHTNING EXISTED ON MAP LATE LAST EVENING             
BUT HAS DIED OFF OVERNIGHT. I EXPECT CONVECTION WILL INCREASE A BIT             
AS WE MOVE INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. MAIN "CHANGE" TODAY WAS TO                  
INCREASE POPS TO CAT. IT IS AN UNFORTUNATE DESCRIPTION, AS ALTHOUGH             
THE OCCASIONAL SHOWER IS A GIVEN, THE QPF WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.                  
KEEPING POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WITH SOME STRAGGLERS                    
FORECAST OVER SE FA DURING THE EVENING. PROXIMITY OF UPPER TROF AND             
PLENTY OF LL MOISTURE SUGGESTS PLENTY OF CLOUDS REGARDLESS. WE BEGIN            
TO CLEAR OUT EARLY SATURDAY BUT EVEN THEN IT LOOKS LIKE A PARTLY                
SUNNY DAY, RATHER THAN AMPLE SUN AS ONCE THOUGHT.  DJP                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT - WED/...                                              
MODELS CONTINUE TREND OF SLOWING PROGRESS OF H5 LOW EJECTING OFF THE            
NEW JERSEY COAST. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL SLOW CLEARING TREND FRIDAY             
NIGHT AND CONTINUE WITH LOW CHC POPS FAR SE FA THROUGH MIDNIGHT.                
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED, MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD                  
AGREEMENT. WITH FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN                 
VCNTY, A PERIOD OF DRY/WARM WEATHER WILL PERSIST SATURDAY THROUGH               
MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT IS THE NEXT CHC FOR PRECIP AS SFC LOW PRESSURE             
MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. FROPA WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED            
ON TUESDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY.  RRM                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /141200Z TO 151200Z/...                                               
MVFR CONDITIONS DUE PRIMARILY TO CIGS WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA                
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS AT KBGM. THIS                     
AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED WITH VFR                     
CONDITONS AT KSYR/KELM/KAVP AND MVFR AT KUCA/KITH/KBGM DUE TO CIGS.             
OVERNIGHT CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH VFR CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY BUT                 
EXPECT A WIDE RANGE OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES WITH EVEN IFR POSSIBLE.                
RRM                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.NY...NONE.                                                                     
.PA...NONE.                                                                     
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
1129 AM EDT THU SEP 14 2006                                                     
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                  
MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EAST COAST              
STATES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH POSITION                    
DRIFTING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.  THIS MAINTAINS SUBSIDENCE WARMING            
AND DRYING ALOFT AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH WEST SOUTHWEST              
FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE.                                                          
MON NIGHT-TUE...THE COLUMN DESTABILIZES AND MOISTENS AS A LARGE                 
SCALE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS.  THE              
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SOMETIME ON            
TUE...SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS FROM YESTERDAY.                  
SHOWER CHANCES OF WILL BE HIGHEST FOR TUE WITH LESSER CHANCES EITHER            
SIDE.  12-HOUR POPS OF 30 PERCENT SHOULD SUFFICE GIVEN THE WESTERLY             
COMPONENT IN THE LOW LEVEL GEOSTROPHIC FLOW AND THE EXPECTED MORE               
WIDELY SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS.  RELATIVE STABILITY IN THE              
MID LEVELS OF LESS THAN 5.5 DEG/KM SHOULD NEGATE MENTION OF                     
THUNDERSTORMS.  FOLLOWING ABOVE NORMAL MIN TEMPERATURES MON NIGHT...            
CLOUDINESS AND A TRANSITIONAL AIRMASS SHOULD LOWER MAX READINGS ON              
TUE.                                                                            
FOR TUE NIGHT-THU...THE GFS APPEARS TO BE THE MODEL OF CHOICE BY HPC            
THOUGH MAJOR DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL                     
SOLUTIONS WHICH ADDS UNCERTAINTY TO DAYS 6 AND 7.  THE GFS QUICKLY              
FLATTENS THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH TO AN ALMOST ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW                
MIDWEEK WHILE OTHER MODELS FAVOR A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH TO REMAIN             
OVER THE EASTERN U.S.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...CLIMATOLOGY WILL               
WEIGH HEAVY IN THE FORECAST CONDITIONS FOR THIS LATTER PERIOD. -RFG             
&&                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 (ISSUED 1045 AM EDT THU SEP 14 2006)                                           
SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                   
CHALLENGING FORECAST THIS MORNING...AS IT USUALLY IS WITH DEMISE                
OF RESIDUAL COOL DOME POOL IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL NC.                            
MSAS AND HAND SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BISECTING THE               
CWA INTO TWO DISTINCT AIRMASS REGIMES WITH A WEAK SFC WAVE  LIFTING             
NORTH ALONG THE BOUNDARY. EAST OF THE BOUNDARY...AND IN THE WARM                
SECTOR...INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR HEAVY DRIZZLE WILL               
CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND NOON WITH THE SFC WAVE FEATURE BRINGING A               
BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AS IT              
RIDES NORTH ALONG THE BOUNDARY. DIMINISHING POPS IN THE AFTERNOON               
FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH                                                        
WEST OF THE BOUNDARY AND IN THE RESIDUAL COOL DOME... CURRENT                   
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD MIXING OCCURRING OVER THE FOOTHILLS            
AND WESTERN PIEDMONT FROM ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE AND RESULTANT                    
SUBSIDENCE. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THIS ASPECT                      
WELL...WHICH IS USUALLY THE CASE. RUC AND MESOETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS            
INDICATED CAPPING INVERSION AOA 725MB OBSERVED IN 12Z/14 GSO                    
RAOB...WILL MAINTAIN...LOCKING IN RESIDUAL COOL POOL AND RESIDUAL               
MOISTURE THROUGH THE MIXING LAYER.  THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS                  
WHETHER THE CLOUDS WILL FILL BACK IN WITH SURFACE HEATING...AND                 
THE IMPLICATIONS ON FORECAST HIGHS TODAY.                                       
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST SCENARIO...SEEING                
DECENT INTERVALS OF SUN. WILL LOWER MAX TEMPS DOWN A CATEGORY TO                
BE MORE IN LINE WITH COOLER LAMP GUIDANCE. WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY               
CLOUDY IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS  WITH VARIABLY CLOUD IN THE              
WEST. OTHERWISE WILL REMOVE POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT BY                 
AROUND NOON...KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE COASTAL                 
PLAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.                                                    
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 (ISSUED 258 AM EDT THU SEP 14 2006)                                            
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...                                    
LIGHT RAIN WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN (EVEN A FEW                   
LIGHTNING STRIKES SOUTHWEST SECTIONS)CONTINUES OVER THE CWA EARLY               
THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY/ISENTROPIC LIFT/UPPER              
DIVERGENCE AND JET STREAK. ADDITIONAL SURFACE WAVE WILL LIFT                    
NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. EXPECT RAIN TO                
PULL OUT OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST.             
MODELS SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION EASTERN/SOUTHEAST TIER               
SECTION THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE WAVE MOVES THROUGH AS LI'S -2/-3              
AND CAPES 1000-2000. AT THIS POINT THINK VERY ISOLATED AT BEST. THIS            
WOULD BE MORE POSSIBLE IF GET SOME BREAKS AND ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON               
HEATING. MID LEVELS DRYING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.                   
HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS/TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTION SHOW                       
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE REMAINING BELOW 700 MB. GFS IS SHOWING MORE               
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WHILE NAM NORTHEAST AND HIGH MOISTURE.                           
FOR NOW..EXPECT CLEARING TO BE SLOW TODAY. SOME CLEARING DURING THE             
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT CLOUDS SHOULD FILL BACK IN OVERNIGHT. SO             
HAVE GONE WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.                              
WITH SLOWER TREND ON CLEARING TODAY...HAVE SHAVED A FEW DEGREES OFF             
MAX TEMPERATURES. HIGHS RANGING FROM MID 70S NORTHWEST TO NEAR 80               
SOUTHEAST. THEN IN TURN WITH MORE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT HAVE RAISED               
MINS A COUPLE OF DEGREES.                                                       
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...                                                
LITTLE ADJUSTMENTS DURING THIS PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WITH             
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONAL NORMS.                                       
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                         
CONTINUE DRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NEXT FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE                 
WEST. MODELS HAVE SPED UP TIMING OF FRONT MOVING ACROSS AREA...NOW              
INDICATING MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN DRY ON                    
WEDNESDAY. WILL GO WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY(MAINLY IN THE                
AFTERNOON) AND TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY ON WEDNESDAY.                                 
AVIATION...                                                                     
IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VIS IN LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN...DRIZZLE AND FOG               
ARE ANTICIPATED TO LAST THROUGH MID MORNING ACROSS THE CWA. PRECIP              
WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AS A NNE-SSW ORIENTED BOUNDARY ASSOC/W               
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER SC BEGINS TO ADVECT EAST. THE TRIAD WILL SEE             
THE BULK OF PRECIP END BEFORE SUNRISE...THE TRIANGLE AREA AROUND OR             
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...AND THE COASTAL PLAIN BY MID TO LATE                    
MORNING. CIGS AND VIS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER PRECIP ENDS...WITH            
MVFR/VFR CONDS EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.            
HOWEVER...CIGS WILL STILL REMAIN BKN OR OVC INTO TONIGHT...AND A                
RETURN TO MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VIS IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 04-12Z TOMORROW             
MORNING.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LONG TERM...RFG                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
1045 AM EDT THU SEP 14 2006                                                     
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
CHALLENGING FORECAST THIS MORNING...AS IT USUALLY IS WITH DEMISE                
OF RESIDUAL COOL DOME POOL IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL NC.                            
MSAS AND HAND SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BISECTING THE               
CWA INTO TWO DISTINCT AIRMASS REGIMES WITH A WEAK SFC WAVE  LIFTING             
NORTH ALONG THE BOUNDARY. EAST OF THE BOUNDARY...AND IN THE WARM                
SECTOR...INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR HEAVY DRIZZLE WILL               
CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND NOON WITH THE SFC WAVE FEATURE BRINGING A               
BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AS IT              
RIDES NORTH ALONG THE BOUNDARY. DIMINISHING POPS IN THE AFTERNOON               
FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH                                                        
WEST OF THE BOUNDARY AND IN THE RESIDUAL COOL DOME... CURRENT                   
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD MIXING OCCURRING OVER THE FOOTHILLS            
AND WESTERN PIEDMONT FROM ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE AND RESULTANT                    
SUBSIDENCE. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THIS ASPECT                      
WELL...WHICH IS USUALLY THE CASE. RUC AND MESOETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS            
INDICATED CAPPING INVERSION AOA 725MB OBSERVED IN 12Z/14 GSO                    
RAOB...WILL MAINTAIN...LOCKING IN RESIDUAL COOL POOL AND RESIDUAL               
MOISTURE THROUGH THE MIXING LAYER.  THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS                  
WHETHER THE CLOUDS WILL FILL BACK IN WITH SURFACE HEATING...AND                 
THE IMPLICATIONS ON FORECAST HIGHS TODAY.                                       
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST SCENARIO...SEEING                
DECENT INTERVALS OF SUN. WILL LOWER MAX TEMPS DOWN A CATEGORY TO                
BE MORE IN LINE WITH COOLER LAMP GUIDANCE. WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY               
CLOUDY IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS  WITH VARIABLY CLOUD IN THE              
WEST. OTHERWISE WILL REMOVE POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT BY                 
AROUND NOON...KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE COASTAL                 
PLAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 (ISSUED 258 AM EDT THU SEP 14 2006)                                            
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...                                    
LIGHT RAIN WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN (EVEN A FEW                   
LIGHTNING STRIKES SOUTHWEST SECTIONS)CONTINUES OVER THE CWA EARLY               
THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY/ISENTROPIC LIFT/UPPER              
DIVERGENCE AND JET STREAK. ADDITIONAL SURFACE WAVE WILL LIFT                    
NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. EXPECT RAIN TO                
PULL OUT OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST.             
MODELS SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION EASTERN/SOUTHEAST TIER               
SECTION THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE WAVE MOVES THROUGH AS LI'S -2/-3              
AND CAPES 1000-2000. AT THIS POINT THINK VERY ISOLATED AT BEST. THIS            
WOULD BE MORE POSSIBLE IF GET SOME BREAKS AND ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON               
HEATING. MID LEVELS DRYING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.                   
HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS/TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTION SHOW                       
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE REMAINING BELOW 700 MB. GFS IS SHOWING MORE               
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WHILE NAM NORTHEAST AND HIGH MOISTURE.                           
FOR NOW..EXPECT CLEARING TO BE SLOW TODAY. SOME CLEARING DURING THE             
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT CLOUDS SHOULD FILL BACK IN OVERNIGHT. SO             
HAVE GONE WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.                              
WITH SLOWER TREND ON CLEARING TODAY...HAVE SHAVED A FEW DEGREES OFF             
MAX TEMPERATURES. HIGHS RANGING FROM MID 70S NORTHWEST TO NEAR 80               
SOUTHEAST. THEN IN TURN WITH MORE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT HAVE RAISED               
MINS A COUPLE OF DEGREES.                                                       
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...                                                
LITTLE ADJUSTMENTS DURING THIS PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WITH             
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONAL NORMS.                                       
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                         
CONTINUE DRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NEXT FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE                 
WEST. MODELS HAVE SPED UP TIMING OF FRONT MOVING ACROSS AREA...NOW              
INDICATING MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN DRY ON                    
WEDNESDAY. WILL GO WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY(MAINLY IN THE                
AFTERNOON) AND TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY ON WEDNESDAY.                                 
AVIATION...                                                                     
IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VIS IN LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN...DRIZZLE AND FOG               
ARE ANTICIPATED TO LAST THROUGH MID MORNING ACROSS THE CWA. PRECIP              
WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AS A NNE-SSW ORIENTED BOUNDARY ASSOC/W               
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER SC BEGINS TO ADVECT EAST. THE TRIAD WILL SEE             
THE BULK OF PRECIP END BEFORE SUNRISE...THE TRIANGLE AREA AROUND OR             
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...AND THE COASTAL PLAIN BY MID TO LATE                    
MORNING. CIGS AND VIS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER PRECIP ENDS...WITH            
MVFR/VFR CONDS EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.            
HOWEVER...CIGS WILL STILL REMAIN BKN OR OVC INTO TONIGHT...AND A                
RETURN TO MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VIS IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 04-12Z TOMORROW             
MORNING.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...LOCKLEAR                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                              
405 PM CDT FRI SEP 15 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO ONGOING FCST. STILL, AM PRESENTED WITH               
THREE PROBLEMS IN IMMEDIATE FORECAST.                                           
FIRST CONCERN IS WIND TODAY. APPEARS WILL BE PLENTY OF MIXING AS                
GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG. HOWEVER, MAY NOT BE QUITE ENOUGH GRADIENT TO           
JUSTIFY A WIND ADVISORY. WILL BE CLOSE HOWEVER AND WILL NEED TO BE              
MONITORED FOR TRENDS DURING THE DAY. ANY INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS WILL            
ALSO MITIGATE STRONGER SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AND/OR GUSTS. HAVE               
INCREASED THE WIND GUSTS IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. AM                          
BANKING ON MIXING HEIGHTS HIGH ENOUGH TO BRING STRONGER GUSTS TO THE            
SURFACE.                                                                        
NEXT PROBLEM IS POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TODAY. RUCII MODEL                     
CONTINUES TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING            
BUT SO FAR, THIS HAS FAILED TO DEVELOP. LOOKING AT SOUNDINGS FROM               
THE RUC AND ALSO THE NAM...STILL SEE ENOUGH POTENTIAL FOR A BIT OF              
ELEVATED CONVECTION THIS MORNING. SO, WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE               
POPS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CWA.                                                   
THIRD PROBLEM IS POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WELL BEHIND FRONTAL                
BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY. GFS CERTAINLY IMPLIES THIS WITH LESS SLOPE TO               
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BETTER POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP AS UPPER TROF MOVES            
IN. 00Z RUN OF NAM QUITE DRY LATE SUNDAY...BUT LATEST 06Z RUN MUCH              
LESS SO AND TRENDING TOWARD THE GFS. DID NOT CHANGE THESE PARTS OF              
THE FORECAST...BUT THIS ALSO BEARS WATCHING IN NEXT SEVERAL RUNS.               
OTHER PARTS OF FORECAST APPEAR ON LINE. AS MENTIONED, ACTUAL SURFACE            
FRONTAL PASSAGE WELL PRESENTED ON GRIDS...HOWEVER SLOPE OF FRONT IN             
QUESTION AND THAT WILL DICTATE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR PCPN            
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
549 AM EDT FRI SEP 15 2006                                                      
...DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS MORNING...                                           
.MESO UPDATE...                                                                 
WILL CONTINUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR ENTIRE CWA UNTIL 14Z. MANY                 
ASOS/AWOS STATIONS AT OR NEAR 1/4SM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS A                    
BUBBLE OF HIGHER VSBYS FROM FT KNOX AND LOUISVILLE UP INTO PARTS                
OF SRN IND...WHERE SENSORS ARE BETWEEN 3 AND 6SM. STILL THERE ARE               
LIKELY SOME PATCHES OF DENSE FOG IN THIS AREA IN THE FAVORED SPOTS.             
CS                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 245 AM EDT FRI SEP 15 2006)                         
SHORT TERM (TODAY-TONIGHT)...                                                   
LARGE AREA OF SFC HIGH PRES STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES                     
SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS                
LEADING TO NEARLY CALM WINDS AT THE SFC...HOWEVER JUST OFF THE DECK             
PER VWP/ACARS DATA...10-20KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED IN THE LOWEST 1-2KFT            
AGL. EVEN WITH THESE WINDS...SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE ALREADY               
DEVELOPED...MAINLY IN THE RURAL/FOG PRONE AREAS. 11-3.9 SAT PIX                 
INDICATING MOST WIDESPREAD FOG IS IN AREAS S/E OF A BWG-LEX LINE AS             
OF 630Z. LATEST RUC INDICATES WIDESPREAD M1/4SM VSBYS DEVELOPING                
AFTER 9Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS LIGHTEN SLIGHTLY. WILL ISSUE A                 
DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 14Z FOR ENTIRE CWA.                                  
BASED ON RUC DATA FOG SHOULD MIX OUT BY 14-15Z THIS MORNING...                  
LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PER NAM FCST SOUNDINGS. A FEW FLAT CU             
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTN HOURS...CENTERED                  
AROUND 3KFT. TONIGHT...SKIES SHOULD LARGELY BE CLEAR WITH PERHAPS               
SOME WISPS OF CIRRUS DROPPING IN FROM THE NW. NAM SHOWING HIGHER RH             
AROUND 300MB AFTER 2Z. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.                  
REGARDING TEMPERATURES...CONSENSUS OF NAM/GFS MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES            
HIGHS TODAY FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND THIS SEEMS OK. WITH             
CLR SKIES TONIGHT...SHELTERED/VALLEY AREAS MAY DROP INTO THE LOWER              
50S...WITH MID/UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.                                             
CS                                                                              
LONG TERM (SATURDAY-THURSDAY)...                                                
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...                                                          
LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL UNDER A THIN UPPER RIDGE...WHICH IS                      
BEING SQUEEZED BETWEEN A PERSISTENT WEAK TROUGH JUST OFF THE MID                
ATLANTIC COAST...AND A MUCH STRONGER FULL LATITUDE TROUGH SLOWLY                
PROGRESSING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EXPECT                    
WARM...LATE SUMMERLIKE TEMPERATURES WITH PLENTY OF SUN...AND CLEAR              
NIGHTS. GULF MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND WILL BE CONFINED ALONG THE GULF              
COAST...ALTHOUGH SOME WILL BEGIN A NORTHWARD RETURN ON SUNDAY ACROSS            
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.                  
AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT LIGHT EAST WINDS SATURDAY THAT WILL VEER TO             
THE SOUTH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES.                
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE TROUGH                  
EXTENDING FROM AN OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS MICHIGAN SOUTHWESTWARD                  
ACROSS MISSOURI MOVES EASTWARD.                                                 
MONDAY...                                                                       
00Z OPERATIONAL GFS...LIKE ITS 00Z RUN YESTERDAY...IS DEEPER THAN               
ITS ENSEMBLE MODELS WITH THE CLOSED LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS                 
MINNESOTA MONDAY. BOTH NAM AND GFS BRING A THIN STRIP OF HIGH                   
PRECIPITABLE WATER RIGHT ALONG A SHARP COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE              
ACROSS OHIO RIVER MONDAY. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHLY              
DEPENDENT ON EXACT TIMING OF FRONT...AND ANY SOLAR HEATING AVAILABLE            
MONDAY AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...UPPER DYNAMICS WILL SUGGEST            
GOOD CHANCE OF LINEAR CONVECTION RIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHEASTWARD                  
MOVING BOUNDARY AND WILL MAINTAIN 50 POPS FOR CONVECTION MONDAY.                
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...                                                     
LATEST ECMWF IS THE COOLEST WITH THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT                       
TUESDAY...AND BOTH OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF THE DEPTH OF              
THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER                  
MIDWEST MONDAY.  STILL EXPECT A DISTINCT COOLDOWN TUESDAY AND                   
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. BY EARLY TUESDAY...DEEP                 
OCCLUDED CYCLONE WILL BE LOCATED OVER ONTARIO...WITH COLD FRONT                 
ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. CLEARING SHOULD PROCEED PRETTY                 
RAPIDLY EARLY ACROSS REGION TUESDAY AS DRY AIR DESCENDS BEHIND THE              
DEPARTING FRONT.                                                                
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TUESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH            
PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER. WEDNESDAY MORNING LOOKS QUITE COOL WITH UPPER            
40S POSSIBLE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL              
CONTINUE COOL WITH HIGHS IN GENERAL BETWEEN 5 AND 8 DEGREES BELOW               
NORMAL.                                                                         
JSD                                                                             
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
KY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 14Z (10AM EDT) ALL ZONES.                         
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 14Z (10AM EDT) ALL ZONES.                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
245 AM EDT FRI SEP 15 2006                                                      
...DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS MORNING...                                           
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TONIGHT)...                                                  
LARGE AREA OF SFC HIGH PRES STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES                     
SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS                
LEADING TO NEARLY CALM WINDS AT THE SFC...HOWEVER JUST OFF THE DECK             
PER VWP/ACARS DATA...10-20KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED IN THE LOWEST 1-2KFT            
AGL. EVEN WITH THESE WINDS...SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE ALREADY               
DEVELOPED...MAINLY IN THE RURAL/FOG PRONE AREAS. 11-3.9 SAT PIX                 
INDICATING MOST WIDESPREAD FOG IS IN AREAS S/E OF A BWG-LEX LINE AS             
OF 630Z. LATEST RUC INDICATES WIDESPREAD M1/4SM VSBYS DEVELOPING                
AFTER 9Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS LIGHTEN SLIGHTLY. WILL ISSUE A                 
DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 14Z FOR ENTIRE CWA.                                  
BASED ON RUC DATA FOG SHOULD MIX OUT BY 14-15Z THIS MORNING...                  
LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PER NAM FCST SOUNDINGS. A FEW FLAT CU             
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTN HOURS...CENTERED                  
AROUND 3KFT. TONIGHT...SKIES SHOULD LARGELY BE CLEAR WITH PERHAPS               
SOME WISPS OF CIRRUS DROPPING IN FROM THE NW. NAM SHOWING HIGHER RH             
AROUND 300MB AFTER 2Z. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.                  
REGARDING TEMPERATURES...CONSENSUS OF NAM/GFS MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES            
HIGHS TODAY FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND THIS SEEMS OK. WITH             
CLR SKIES TONIGHT...SHELTERED/VALLEY AREAS MAY DROP INTO THE LOWER              
50S...WITH MID/UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.                                             
CS                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY-THURSDAY)...                                               
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...                                                          
LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL UNDER A THIN UPPER RIDGE...WHICH IS                      
BEING SQUEEZED BETWEEN A PERSISTENT WEAK TROUGH JUST OFF THE MID                
ATLANTIC COAST...AND A MUCH STRONGER FULL LATITUDE TROUGH SLOWLY                
PROGRESSING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EXPECT                    
WARM...LATE SUMMERLIKE TEMPERATURES WITH PLENTY OF SUN...AND CLEAR              
NIGHTS. GULF MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND WILL BE CONFINED ALONG THE GULF              
COAST...ALTHOUGH SOME WILL BEGIN A NORTHWARD RETURN ON SUNDAY ACROSS            
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.                  
AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT LIGHT EAST WINDS SATURDAY THAT WILL VEER TO             
THE SOUTH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES.                
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE TROUGH                  
EXTENDING FROM AN OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS MICHIGAN SOUTHWESTWARD                  
ACROSS MISSOURI MOVES EASTWARD.                                                 
MONDAY...                                                                       
00Z OPERATIONAL GFS...LIKE ITS 00Z RUN YESTERDAY...IS DEEPER THAN               
ITS ENSEMBLE MODELS WITH THE CLOSED LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS                 
MINNESOTA MONDAY. BOTH NAM AND GFS BRING A THIN STRIP OF HIGH                   
PRECIPITABLE WATER RIGHT ALONG A SHARP COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE              
ACROSS OHIO RIVER MONDAY. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHLY              
DEPENDENT ON EXACT TIMING OF FRONT...AND ANY SOLAR HEATING AVAILABLE            
MONDAY AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...UPPER DYNAMICS WILL SUGGEST            
GOOD CHANCE OF LINEAR CONVECTION RIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHEASTWARD                  
MOVING BOUNDARY AND WILL MAINTAIN 50 POPS FOR CONVECTION MONDAY.                
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...                                                     
LATEST ECMWF IS THE COOLEST WITH THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT                       
TUESDAY...AND BOTH OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF THE DEPTH OF              
THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER                  
MIDWEST MONDAY.  STILL EXPECT A DISTINCT COOLDOWN TUESDAY AND                   
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. BY EARLY TUESDAY...DEEP                 
OCCLUDED CYCLONE WILL BE LOCATED OVER ONTARIO...WITH COLD FRONT                 
ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. CLEARING SHOULD PROCEED PRETTY                 
RAPIDLY EARLY ACROSS REGION TUESDAY AS DRY AIR DESCENDS BEHIND THE              
DEPARTING FRONT.                                                                
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TUESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH            
PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER. WEDNESDAY MORNING LOOKS QUITE COOL WITH UPPER            
40S POSSIBLE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL              
CONTINUE COOL WITH HIGHS IN GENERAL BETWEEN 5 AND 8 DEGREES BELOW               
NORMAL.                                                                         
JSD                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 14Z (10AM EDT) ALL ZONES.                         
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 14Z (10AM EDT) ALL ZONES.                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
540 AM EDT FRI SEP 15 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
HEAT FLUX FROM STRATUS DECK HAS REALLY TAKEN A TOLL ON FOG                      
DEVELOPMENT AND EXISTING DENSE FOG.  VISIBILITIES IN AREAS WENT FROM            
LESS THEN A 1/4 MILE TO OVER 10 IN LESS THEN AN HOUR.  LOW CLOUDS HAVE          
MADE IT TO ABOUT CARO IN TUSCOLA COUNTY SOUTH THROUGH PONTIAC TO                
DETROIT.  LOOKS LIKE THE WESTWARD ADVANCEMENT IS SLOWING BUT SHOULD             
CONTINUE SOUTH.                                                                 
WILL DISCONTINUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM WAYNE COUNTY ON NORTH AND              
EAST.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT                                                 
SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER HEAD TODAY AND TONIGHT.               
FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE FOG AND CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING.  LARGE               
SHIELD OF LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN WORKING BACK AROUND UPPER LOW SYSTEM             
OVER PENNSYLVANIA INTO THE EASTERN THUMB AND IS CONTINUING TO SPREAD            
SOUTH AND WESTWARD UNDER INVERSION.  THIS IS ALSO BEING HELPED BY               
WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDING BACK WEST INTO THUMB. GFS SEEMS TO             
HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS LOOKING AT THE 925-950MB MOISTURE                  
FIELD. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY MAKE IT NO FURTHER WEST THEN                      
US23/US23/I75 LINE.                                                             
WILL CONTINUE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 14Z AS MOST OBSERVATIONS             
SHOWING VISIBILITIES 1/4 MILE OR LESS...EXCEPTIONS HAVE BEEN MOST OF            
WAYNE COUNTY WHERE URBAN HEAT ISLAND AFFECT SEEMS TO HAVE KEPT DEW              
POINT SPREAD APART FAR ENOUGH TO LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT SO FAR AND               
EASTERN MACOMB COUNTY WHERE CLOUD COVER HAS PREVENT DECENT                      
RADIATIONAL COOLING.  STILL SEVERAL HOURS TO GO BEFORE SUNRISE SO DO            
EXPECT SOME DEGREE OF FOG TO DEVELOP IN THESE AREAS BUT MORE OF                 
PATCHY DENSE FOG THEN WIDESPREAD.                                               
FOG AND CLOUDS WILL MIX AND DISSIPATE OUT BY NOON.  MODEL SOUNDINGS             
SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN                   
PORTIONS OF CWA TO GENERATE SCT-BKN CU THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL CARRY             
PARTLY CLOUDY THOSE AREAS AND MOSTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE.                           
SHOULD HAVE CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH OUT ANY LOW LEVEL CLOUD                    
INTRUSION LIKE OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AGAIN                
TONIGHT SO WILL CARRY AREAS OF FOG.  NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DENSE             
FOG BUT WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHY DENSE FOG.                                       
WILL GO WITH WARMER GFS NUMBERS AS MET GUIDANCE UNDER DID YESTERDAYS            
HIGHS AND SEEMS A BIT LOW FOR TODAY.                                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY                                          
A BRIEF WARM UP THEN AUTUMN CONDITIONS SETTLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES              
FOR NEXT WEEK (BUT NOT AS EMPHATIC PER THE GFS).                                
LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT IS UNDERWAY WITH DEEP AND COLD TROUGH                 
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND                   
SURFACE LEE-CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.  IN TURN THE               
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY WITH STRENGTHENING SURFACE                
HIGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND TENNESSEE VALLEY THAT WILL REMAIN IN                
PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY.  MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH OCCLUDED FRONT              
IN THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.  THE                       
NMM/CANADIAN SUGGEST 500MB WAVE ON THE ENTRANCE SIDE OF THE JET WILL            
AMPLIFY AND TRACK INTO THE STATE LATE SUNDAY BUT CONSENSUS FROM THE             
GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST HOLDING OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT GIVEN STRENGTH OF              
UPSTREAM TROUGH AND TRENDS SUGGEST A LITTLE SLOWER PROGRESS.                    
THIS CONTINUES WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY                 
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND WE WILL RAISE POPS A LITTLE MORE.                 
DEEP THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG WITH 30-40KTS LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORTS               
THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES AND WITH ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS TO AID IN            
ADDITIONAL LIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR            
WITH THE OFFICIAL START TO AUTUMN THIS WEEKEND.                                 
NOT TO WORRY AS THE CALENDAR WILL CATCH UP QUICKLY EARLY NEXT WEEK              
WITH FROPA EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND COLD ADVECTION TO                   
PERUSE.  THE GFS SEEMS TO BE OVERDEVELOPED WITH THE CLOSED 500MB LOW            
AND WE PREFER THE MORE OPEN NATURE SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF/CANADIAN.               
THIS SHOULD KEEP THOSE NEGATIVE 850MB TEMPS A BIT IN CHECK (FOR NOW)            
ACROSS THE STATE BUT NEVERTHELESS LOWER SINGLE DIGIT READINGS                   
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PROVIDE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS             
THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME LAKE                 
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.                                         
THEN FOLLOWING THE ECMWF/CANADIAN IDEA OF BUILDING HEIGHTS AND                  
SURFACE PRESSURES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE NORTHERN                
PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  HOWEVER...THIS              
WILL NOT BE A CLEAN FORECAST AS INDICATIONS ARE WE QUICKLY                      
TRANSITION INTO A ZONAL FLOW WITH A FURTHER SOUTH POSITION OF THE               
MAIN UPPER JET.  LIKELY SEE MORE CLOUDS BUT WILL REFRAIN FROM THE               
MENTION OF PRECIP AT THIS TIME.  SUMMER IS INDEED COMING TO AN END.             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 100 AM EDT FRI SEP 15 2006                            
AVIATION...                                                                     
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FOG WILL BE A BIG AVIATION CONCERN THIS                 
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE STATE. CLEAR                 
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH SOIL MOISTURE HAS SET THE STAGE FOR                
OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO              
CARRY SEVERAL HOURS OF QUARTER MILE VISIBILITY AT FNT AND MBS. THE              
COMBINATION OF THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND AFFECT AND A LITTLE STRONGER               
NORTHERLY WINDS JUST ATOP THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION MAY BE ENOUGH TO              
PREVENT DENSE FOG AT DTW AND DET. AS OF 04Z...THERE IS A SOLID                  
STRATUS DECK BASED AROUND 1200FT MOVING INTO MACOMB COUNTY. THE 00Z             
RUC NOW HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS CLOUD COVER...WHICH BRINGS IT               
INTO DET BY 07Z. THE RUC DOES NOT SUGGEST MUCH ADDITIONAL WESTWARD              
MOVEMENT TO CLOUDS WITH THE LOW LEVEL WINDS FORECAST TO BE MORE                 
NORTHERLY AT DETROIT. AT THIS POINT...WILL BRING THE STRATUS DECK               
INTO DET BUT HOLD OFF AT DTW. THE AFFECT OF THIS STRATUS DECK WILL              
BE TO REDUCE THE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND ALLOW SURFACE VISIBILITY TO                
INCREASE.                                                                       
BASED ON OBS IN WISCONSIN YESTERDAY AND GIVEN THE LOWER MID                     
SEPTEMBER SUN ANGLE...FOG SHOULD NOT MIX OUT UNTIL 13-15Z.                      
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...MIZ047-MIZ048-MIZ049-MIZ053-MIZ054-MIZ055-            
     MIZ060-MIZ061-MIZ062-MIZ063-MIZ068-MIZ069-MIZ070-MIZ075-                   
     MIZ076-MIZ082-MIZ083 UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY.                                   
LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...DRC                                                                
LONG TERM....BGM                                                                
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
500 AM EDT FRI SEP 15 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...EXPANDING DENSE FOG ADVIS INTO OTSEGO. NO OTHER CHANGES.              
NOT WILLING TO GIVE UP ON HEADLINE YET WEST OF US-131...THOUGH TO               
THIS POINT TVC AND THE COAST HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH FOG YET. COULD                  
CANCEL THOSE COUNTIES AROUND SUNRISE IF THINGS DO NOT CHANGE...STILL            
A COUPLE OF HOURS TO GO YET.                                                    
MPC/JZ                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION ISSUED 345 AM FRI SEP 15...                                    
03Z SURFACE/RUC ANALYSIS                                                        
AND IR/WV IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE WEST               
COAST...AND A RELATIVELY FLATTENED RIDGE PARKED ACROSS THE MIDDLE               
CONUS.  HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CENTERED NE OF THE GEORGIAN BAY            
UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH 500MB              
RIDGING WHOSE AXIS RUNS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND VERY             
DRY AIR ALOFT HAS ALLOWED FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING                     
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA.  THESE CONDITIONS HAVE HELPED WIDESPREAD             
FOG TO FORM ALREADY...MOSTLY CONFINED TO INLAND AREAS SOUTH OF M-32             
AS NOTED BY OBS (ACB...3/4SM....GOV....1/2SM...HTL...1/4SM) AND                 
11U-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY.  TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE                  
MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S AND MOST PLACES ARE AT OR BELOW THEIR                   
CROSSOVER TEMPS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EASTERN UPPER.  WITH NO PRECIP            
IN THE PICTURE UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE             
SHORT TERM REVOLVE AROUND FOG HEADLINES THIS MORNING.                           
FOG HEADLINES....NOT SURPRISINGLY...FOG HAS BEEN ON THE INCREASE                
THIS MORNING AS TEMPS COOL.  CURRENT OBS AND SATELLITE TRENDS                   
SUPPORT KEEPING THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY GOING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF                 
M-72.  THE QUESTION IS WHETHER FOG WILL BECOME THICK ENOUGH OVER                
NORTHERN LOWER NORTH OF THIS LINE TO WARRANT HEADLINES?  TEMPS HAVE             
FALLEN AT OR BELOW THE CROSSOVER TEMP FOR MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THIS            
AREA BUT FOG HAS NOT FORMED NEARLY AS QUICK AS THEIR COUNTERPARTS TO            
THE SOUTH (07Z GLR JUST WENT 1/4SM FG BUT IS ONLY SITE NORTH OF                 
M-72). WITH FURTHER COOLING TO TAKE PLACE THIS MORNING...EXPECT FOG             
TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...BUT AM RELUCTANT TO CHANGE HEADLINES                
UNTIL MORE EVIDENCE BECOMES APPARENT FROM THE OBS.  WILL HAVE TO                
KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.                          
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...ANOTHER FANTASTIC DAY ON TAP...ONCE THE            
FOG LIFTS THIS MORNING.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE AS NOTED BY THE 850-500MB            
RH 10 TO 20 PCT WILL PREVAIL WITH RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.             
THIS SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS HEIGHT RISES TAKE              
PLACE WITH THE 500MB RIDGE STRENGTHENING AS IT PASSES OVERHEAD.                 
ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF THIS MORNING...LINGERING MOISTURE BELOW THE              
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AS NOTED BY AN ACARS SOUNDING FROM APN                     
(DEWPOINT 9C AT 925MB) LATE LAST EVENING WILL PROMOTE FLAT CU BUILD             
UP ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH MIXING OF THE DRY AIR             
ABOVE...THIS CU WILL DIMINISH DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE                          
AFTERNOON...LEAVING MOST LOCATIONS MOSTLY SUNNY.  850MB TEMPS                   
INCREASE A DEGREE OR TWO...RANGING FROM 12-13C ACROSS NORTHERN                  
LOWER...TO 13-14C OVER EASTERN UPPER...SO WE WILL SEE HIGHS MOSTLY              
IN THE MIDDLE 70S.  THESE TEMPS...COMBINED WITH THE LIGHT WINDS WITH            
THE RIDGING...WILL PROMOTE LAKE BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON (950MB WINDS             
5-10KTS NORTHERN LOWER AND 10-15KTS EASTERN UPPER)...AND WILL KEEP              
AREAS NEAR THE LAKES A FEW DEGREES COOLER.                                      
MPC                                                                             
LATER PERIODS...UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE FROM THE                  
CENTRAL TO THE EASTERN LAKES...AS AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW GETS                  
CARVED OUT IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. QUIET WX LOOKS TO PREVAIL THRU               
SATURDAY...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST FOR              
THE TAIL END OF THE WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES FROM SAT NIGHT ONWARD               
ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGE.                                                         
MODELS...NAM IS RATHER FAST WITH THE COLD FRONT...NEARING LAKE MI BY            
SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS STILL HAS THE BOUNDARY ON THE OTHER SIDE OF             
WI. SREF STARTS SLOW BUT ALMOST CATCHES UP WITH THE NAM...NGM (FOR              
WHAT IT/S WORTH) IS ALSO FAST...CANADIAN IS SLOW. NAM/GFS BOTH                  
SHOWING GOOD CONSISTENCY. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE SLOW SIDE PER USUAL              
MODEL BIASES...BUT THAT STILL MEANS BRINGING IN RAIN FASTER THAN                
EARLIER FORECAST.                                                               
TONIGHT/SATURDAY...WX CONCERNS FAIRLY MINIMAL. ANOTHER CLEAR AND                
STILL NIGHT TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN FOG. BUT SHOULD NOT BE AS MUCH               
FOG AS THIS MORNING...AFTER ANOTHER DAY OF GOOD DIURNAL MIXING AND              
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL STAY               
TOWARD THE COOL END OF GUIDANCE TEMPS. MAY HAVE SOME CU/STRATOCU IN             
EASTERN UPPER MI SATURDAY...AS DEVELOPING SE SUB-900MB WINDS BRING              
IN SOME EXTRA MOISTURE OFF OF HURON. AND SOME CIRRUS WILL ARRIVE IN             
NORTHERN/WESTERN ZONES LATE. OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...WITH              
MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S...PERHAPS JUST TOUCHING 80 IN THE SOUTHERN                 
ZONES (LIKE TVC...WHICH WILL BENEFIT FROM A DOWNSLOPING SOUTH WIND).            
SATURDAY NIGHT...DEVELOPING 850MB LOW LEVEL JET WILL PUNCH FROM KS              
INTO WI. THIS WILL BRING AN 850MB THETA-E RIDGE EAST WITH                       
TIME...POKING INTO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES LATE. INCREASING              
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT A BAND OF SHOWERS (AND MAYBE AN               
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM) TRYING TO WORK ACROSS LAKE MI OVERNIGHT.                 
INSTABILITY PROGS FROM EVEN THE AGGRESSIVE NAM DO NOT SUPPORT                   
THUNDER THIS FAR EAST (ONLY 100-200 MUCAPE). BUT RAPID SATURATION OF            
THE MID AND LOW LEVELS AFTER 09Z MAY ALLOW SOME SHOWERS TO WORK IN              
FROM THE WEST. WILL HAVE A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIP AFTER 08Z FROM CAD            
TO DE TOUR AND WEST. OTHERWISE...MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THICKENING             
EVERYWHERE...WITH DRY AIR BELOW 700MB PRECLUDING PRECIP. WILL BE A              
RELATIVELY WARM NIGHT WITH CLOUDS AND NO DECOUPLING...MIN TEMPS                 
MAINLY UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.                                                  
SUNDAY...850MB THETA-E RIDGE WILL TAKE IT/S TIME WORKING INTO AND               
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FORCING/DYNAMICS ARE NOT ESPECIALLY                   
IMPRESSIVE...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DOES IT/S USUAL EARLY MORNING                 
DECAY...AND UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL ONLY APPROACH LAKE MI TOWARD               
EVENING (AS LONG AS THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS HOLD). EXPECT A WEAKENING              
BAND OF SHOWERS TO PRESS FURTHER EAST IN THE MORNING BEFORE                     
COMPLETELY FALLING APART. THEN IT FALLS TO HOW MUCH HEATING WE CAN              
SEE. WITH 850MB TEMPS +16/17C...MAX TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE NEAR 80 TO            
ALLOW SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO COOK OFF SOME STORMS. WE MIGHT               
GET THERE GIVEN THE EXPECTED MILD START TO THE DAY...BUT WITH A FAIR            
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER 80 IS PROBABLY THE TOP END. END RESULT...WILL             
HAVE A CHANCE OF SHRA MOST EVERYWHERE IN THE MORNING...AND ADD TSRA             
FOR THE AFTERNOON. WILL LEAVE PRECIP OUT NEAR SAGINAW BAY WHERE                 
SURFACE RIDGING AND LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL TRY TO HANG ON THE                   
LONGEST.                                                                        
REST OF THE FORECAST...WILL REMOVE THUNDER FROM EASTERN UPPER/NW                
LOWER MI MONDAY. COLD FRONT GOES THRU EARLY AND STRONG LOW LEVEL                
COLD ADVECTION IS WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD CORE ALOFT. WILL LEAVE                 
THUNDER IN NE LOWER...THOUGH CURRENT PREFERRED TIMING SUGGEST EARLY             
MORNING WILL BE THE BEST SHOT THERE. WILL TREND TEMPS DOWNWARD A BIT            
MORE MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY...AS MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN                
SHOWING A FAIRLY DRASTIC COLD SNAP FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. (NOTE THE             
POSSIBILITY OF ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE MT/ND                  
BORDER AREA. FOLKS...SUMMER IS ENDING.)                                         
ZOLTOWSKI                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10                
         AM...MIZ022-025>036-041-042.                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
445 AM EDT FRI SEP 15 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE PCPN CHANCES/TIMING THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH              
TSRA POTENTIAL.                                                                 
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS WITH            
A CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE PAC NW. DOWNSTREAM...A RDG                
EXTENDED FROM TX TO THE WRN GRT LAKES. AT THE SFC...A TROF WAS                  
LOCATED FROM ERN WY INTO ERN CO WITH A FRONT FROM NE WY THROUGH ND              
TO SE MANITOBA WHILE A HIGH PRES PREVAILED OVER THE CNTRL GRT LAKES.            
THE WAA PATTERN UPSTREAM HAS BROUGHT MID/HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE ERN               
DAKOTAS AND UPR MS VALLEY. RADIATION FOG HAS AGAIN DEVELOPED OVER               
THE CNTRL AND E PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH VSBYS BLO 1/2SM AT TIMES AT            
KERY/KESC/KISQ. OTHERWISE...IR LOOP INDICATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES                
ACRS UPR MI.                                                                    
TODAY...WITH ONLY SHALLOW LOW LVL MOISTURE...EXPECT THE PATCHY FOG              
TO BURN OFF EARLY...BY 13Z-14Z. THEN...WAA AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE                
WITH MIXING TO 900-850 MB...PER UPSTREAM SNDGS...SHOULD BOOST TEMPS             
INTO THE UPPER 70S OVER THE AREA...GENERALLY IN LINE WITH GFS                   
GUIDANCE VALUES. TONIGHT...GRADIENT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP               
SRLY WINDS GOING AND TEMPS FROM FALLING OFF MUCH...ESPECIALLY OVER              
DOWNSLOPE AREAS IN THE WEST HLF OF THE CWA.                                     
SAT...MDLS SUGGEST STRONG 850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG WITH THE               
POTENTIAL FOR WEAK SHRTWVS IN THE SW FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME SHRA OR              
ISOLD TSTMS INTO MAINLY THE W THIRD OF UPR MI. ONLY LOWER END CHANCE            
POPS WARRANTED...GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE              
THE SHRTWVS. SINCE THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR WILL REMAIN W OF UPR                   
MI...STRONG OR SVR STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.                                     
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...THE NAM WAS SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER WITH THE                  
COLD FRONT. EVEN THOUGH THE 21Z SREF ALSO SUPPORTS A FASTER                     
FRONTAL MOVEMENT...THE UKMET/ECMWF ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE SLOWER             
GFS. A COMPROMISE TOWARD THE GFS WAS PREFERRED WHICH WOULD SUPPORT              
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES SAT NIGHT IN WAA PATTERN UPR MI NEAR THE NOSE OF              
40KT H8 LLJ. SCT SHRA/TSRA SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP SUN ALONG AND AHEAD              
OF THE FRONT. GOOD DEEP LYR SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG            
TO SEVERE STORMS IF CLOUDS THIN OUT ENOUGH FOR DAYTIME HEATING TO               
BOOST INSTABILITY.                                                              
MON INTO TUE...THE 00Z GFS REMAINS SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH THE MID               
LVL LOW MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS TOWARD SRN CANADA COMPARED TO THE             
00Z CANADIAN GLBL AND THE 12Z/14 00Z/15 ECMWF AND 00Z UKMET. THE                
PREFERRED FASTER SOLUTIONS...PER HPC...STILL SUGGEST THAT                       
WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE AND PCPN WILL AFFECT UPR MI MON WITH ENOUGH                
COLD AIR(H8 TEMPS DOWN TO -3C)FOR LAKE EFFECT OR LAKE ENHANCED RAIN.            
SO...CONTINUED TO NUDGE MAX TEMPS DOWN A BIT FOR INLAND LOCATIONS.              
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JLB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
420 AM EDT FRI SEP 15 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT                                                 
SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER HEAD TODAY AND TONIGHT.               
FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE FOG AND CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING.  LARGE               
SHIELD OF LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN WORKING BACK AROUND UPPER LOW SYSTEM             
OVER PENNSYLVANIA INTO THE EASTERN THUMB AND IS CONTINUING TO SPREAD            
SOUTH AND WESTWARD UNDER INVERSION.  THIS IS ALSO BEING HELPED BY               
WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDING BACK WEST INTO THUMB. GFS SEEMS TO             
HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS LOOKING AT THE 925-950MB MOISTURE                  
FIELD. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY MAKE IT NO FURTHER WEST THEN                      
US23/US23/I75 LINE.                                                             
WILL CONTINUE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 14Z AS MOST OBSERVATIONS             
SHOWING VISIBILITIES 1/4 MILE OR LESS...EXCEPTIONS HAVE BEEN MOST OF            
WAYNE COUNTY WHERE URBAN HEAT ISLAND AFFECT SEEMS TO HAVE KEPT DEW              
POINT SPREAD APART FAR ENOUGH TO LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT SO FAR AND               
EASTERN MACOMB COUNTY WHERE CLOUD COVER HAS PREVENT DECENT                      
RADIATIONAL COOLING.  STILL SEVERAL HOURS TO GO BEFORE SUNRISE SO DO            
EXPECT SOME DEGREE OF FOG TO DEVELOP IN THESE AREAS BUT MORE OF                 
PATCHY DENSE FOG THEN WIDESPREAD.                                               
FOG AND CLOUDS WILL MIX AND DISSIPATE OUT BY NOON.  MODEL SOUNDINGS             
SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN                   
PORTIONS OF CWA TO GENERATE SCT-BKN CU THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL CARRY             
PARTLY CLOUDY THOSE AREAS AND MOSTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE.                           
SHOULD HAVE CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH OUT ANY LOW LEVEL CLOUD                    
INTRUSION LIKE OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AGAIN                
TONIGHT SO WILL CARRY AREAS OF FOG.  NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DENSE             
FOG BUT WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHY DENSE FOG.                                       
WILL GO WITH WARMER GFS NUMBERS AS MET GUIDANCE UNDER DID YESTERDAYS            
HIGHS AND SEEMS A BIT LOW FOR TODAY.                                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY                                          
A BRIEF WARM UP THEN AUTUMN CONDITIONS SETTLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES              
FOR NEXT WEEK (BUT NOT AS EMPHATIC PER THE GFS).                                
LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT IS UNDERWAY WITH DEEP AND COLD TROUGH                 
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND                   
SURFACE LEE-CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.  IN TURN THE               
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY WITH STRENGTHENING SURFACE                
HIGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND TENNESSEE VALLEY THAT WILL REMAIN IN                
PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY.  MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH OCCLUDED FRONT              
IN THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.  THE                       
NMM/CANADIAN SUGGEST 500MB WAVE ON THE ENTRANCE SIDE OF THE JET WILL            
AMPLIFY AND TRACK INTO THE STATE LATE SUNDAY BUT CONSENSUS FROM THE             
GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST HOLDING OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT GIVEN STRENGTH OF              
UPSTREAM TROUGH AND TRENDS SUGGEST A LITTLE SLOWER PROGRESS.                    
THIS CONTINUES WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY                 
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND WE WILL RAISE POPS A LITTLE MORE.                 
DEEP THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG WITH 30-40KTS LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORTS               
THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES AND WITH ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS TO AID IN            
ADDITIONAL LIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR            
WITH THE OFFICIAL START TO AUTUMN THIS WEEKEND.                                 
NOT TO WORRY AS THE CALENDAR WILL CATCH UP QUICKLY EARLY NEXT WEEK              
WITH FROPA EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND COLD ADVECTION TO                   
PERUSE.  THE GFS SEEMS TO BE OVERDEVELOPED WITH THE CLOSED 500MB LOW            
AND WE PREFER THE MORE OPEN NATURE SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF/CANADIAN.               
THIS SHOULD KEEP THOSE NEGATIVE 850MB TEMPS A BIT IN CHECK (FOR NOW)            
ACROSS THE STATE BUT NEVERTHELESS LOWER SINGLE DIGIT READINGS                   
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PROVIDE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS             
THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME LAKE                 
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.                                         
THEN FOLLOWING THE ECMWF/CANADIAN IDEA OF BUILDING HEIGHTS AND                  
SURFACE PRESSURES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE NORTHERN                
PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  HOWEVER...THIS              
WILL NOT BE A CLEAN FORECAST AS INDICATIONS ARE WE QUICKLY                      
TRANSITION INTO A ZONAL FLOW WITH A FURTHER SOUTH POSITION OF THE               
MAIN UPPER JET.  LIKELY SEE MORE CLOUDS BUT WILL REFRAIN FROM THE               
MENTION OF PRECIP AT THIS TIME.  SUMMER IS INDEED COMING TO AN END.             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 100 AM EDT FRI SEP 15 2006                            
AVIATION...                                                                     
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FOG WILL BE A BIG AVIATION CONCERN THIS                 
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE STATE. CLEAR                 
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH SOIL MOISTURE HAS SET THE STAGE FOR                
OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO              
CARRY SEVERAL HOURS OF QUARTER MILE VISIBILITY AT FNT AND MBS. THE              
COMBINATION OF THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND AFFECT AND A LITTLE STRONGER               
NORTHERLY WINDS JUST ATOP THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION MAY BE ENOUGH TO              
PREVENT DENSE FOG AT DTW AND DET. AS OF 04Z...THERE IS A SOLID                  
STRATUS DECK BASED AROUND 1200FT MOVING INTO MACOMB COUNTY. THE 00Z             
RUC NOW HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS CLOUD COVER...WHICH BRINGS IT               
INTO DET BY 07Z. THE RUC DOES NOT SUGGEST MUCH ADDITIONAL WESTWARD              
MOVEMENT TO CLOUDS WITH THE LOW LEVEL WINDS FORECAST TO BE MORE                 
NORTHERLY AT DETROIT. AT THIS POINT...WILL BRING THE STRATUS DECK               
INTO DET BUT HOLD OFF AT DTW. THE AFFECT OF THIS STRATUS DECK WILL              
BE TO REDUCE THE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND ALLOW SURFACE VISIBILITY TO                
INCREASE.                                                                       
BASED ON OBS IN WISCONSIN YESTERDAY AND GIVEN THE LOWER MID                     
SEPTEMBER SUN ANGLE...FOG SHOULD NOT MIX OUT UNTIL 13-15Z.                      
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...MIZ047-MIZ048-MIZ049-MIZ053-MIZ054-MIZ055-            
     MIZ060-MIZ061-MIZ062-MIZ063-MIZ068-MIZ069-MIZ070-MIZ075-                   
     MIZ076-MIZ082-MIZ083 UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY.                                   
LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...DRC                                                                
LONG TERM....BGM                                                                
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
345 AM EDT FRI SEP 15 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...03Z SURFACE/RUC ANALYSIS AND IR/WV IMAGERY SHOW A                 
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE WEST COAST...AND A RELATIVELY               
FLATTENED RIDGE PARKED ACROSS THE MIDDLE CONUS.  HIGH PRESSURE AT               
THE SURFACE CENTERED NE OF THE GEORGIAN BAY UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW                
ALOFT. THIS HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH 500MB RIDGING WHOSE AXIS                
RUNS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND VERY DRY AIR ALOFT HAS              
ALLOWED FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE                 
CWA.  THESE CONDITIONS HAVE HELPED WIDESPREAD FOG TO FORM                       
ALREADY...MOSTLY CONFINED TO INLAND AREAS SOUTH OF M-32 AS NOTED BY             
OBS (ACB...3/4SM....GOV....1/2SM...HTL...1/4SM) AND 11U-3.9U                    
SATELLITE IMAGERY.  TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MIDDLE 40S TO             
LOWER 50S AND MOST PLACES ARE AT OR BELOW THEIR CROSSOVER TEMPS WITH            
THE EXCEPTION OF EASTERN UPPER.  WITH NO PRECIP IN THE PICTURE UNTIL            
SUNDAY MORNING...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE               
AROUND FOG HEADLINES THIS MORNING.                                              
FOG HEADLINES....NOT SURPRISINGLY...FOG HAS BEEN ON THE INCREASE                
THIS MORNING AS TEMPS COOL.  CURRENT OBS AND SATELLITE TRENDS                   
SUPPORT KEEPING THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY GOING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF                 
M-72.  THE QUESTION IS WHETHER FOG WILL BECOME THICK ENOUGH OVER                
NORTHERN LOWER NORTH OF THIS LINE TO WARRANT HEADLINES?  TEMPS HAVE             
FALLEN AT OR BELOW THE CROSSOVER TEMP FOR MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THIS            
AREA BUT FOG HAS NOT FORMED NEARLY AS QUICK AS THEIR COUNTERPARTS TO            
THE SOUTH (07Z GLR JUST WENT 1/4SM FG BUT IS ONLY SITE NORTH OF                 
M-72). WITH FURTHER COOLING TO TAKE PLACE THIS MORNING...EXPECT FOG             
TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...BUT AM RELUCTANT TO CHANGE HEADLINES                
UNTIL MORE EVIDENCE BECOMES APPARENT FROM THE OBS.  WILL HAVE TO                
KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.                          
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...ANOTHER FANTASTIC DAY ON TAP...ONCE THE            
FOG LIFTS THIS MORNING.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE AS NOTED BY THE 850-500MB            
RH 10 TO 20 PCT WILL PREVAIL WITH RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.             
THIS SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS HEIGHT RISES TAKE              
PLACE WITH THE 500MB RIDGE STRENGTHENING AS IT PASSES OVERHEAD.                 
ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF THIS MORNING...LINGERING MOISTURE BELOW THE              
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AS NOTED BY AN ACARS SOUNDING FROM APN                     
(DEWPOINT 9C AT 925MB) LATE LAST EVENING WILL PROMOTE FLAT CU BUILD             
UP ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH MIXING OF THE DRY AIR             
ABOVE...THIS CU WILL DIMINISH DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE                          
AFTERNOON...LEAVING MOST LOCATIONS MOSTLY SUNNY.  850MB TEMPS                   
INCREASE A DEGREE OR TWO...RANGING FROM 12-13C ACROSS NORTHERN                  
LOWER...TO 13-14C OVER EASTERN UPPER...SO WE WILL SEE HIGHS MOSTLY              
IN THE MIDDLE 70S.  THESE TEMPS...COMBINED WITH THE LIGHT WINDS WITH            
THE RIDGING...WILL PROMOTE LAKE BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON (950MB WINDS             
5-10KTS NORTHERN LOWER AND 10-15KTS EASTERN UPPER)...AND WILL KEEP              
AREAS NEAR THE LAKES A FEW DEGREES COOLER.                                      
MPC                                                                             
LATER PERIODS...UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE FROM THE                  
CENTRAL TO THE EASTERN LAKES...AS AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW GETS                  
CARVED OUT IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. QUIET WX LOOKS TO PREVAIL THRU               
SATURDAY...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST FOR              
THE TAIL END OF THE WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES FROM SAT NIGHT ONWARD               
ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGE.                                                         
MODELS...NAM IS RATHER FAST WITH THE COLD FRONT...NEARING LAKE MI BY            
SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS STILL HAS THE BOUNDARY ON THE OTHER SIDE OF             
WI. SREF STARTS SLOW BUT ALMOST CATCHES UP WITH THE NAM...NGM (FOR              
WHAT IT/S WORTH) IS ALSO FAST...CANADIAN IS SLOW. NAM/GFS BOTH                  
SHOWING GOOD CONSISTENCY. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE SLOW SIDE PER USUAL              
MODEL BIASES...BUT THAT STILL MEANS BRINGING IN RAIN FASTER THAN                
EARLIER FORECAST.                                                               
TONIGHT/SATURDAY...WX CONCERNS FAIRLY MINIMAL. ANOTHER CLEAR AND                
STILL NIGHT TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN FOG. BUT SHOULD NOT BE AS MUCH               
FOG AS THIS MORNING...AFTER ANOTHER DAY OF GOOD DIURNAL MIXING AND              
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL STAY               
TOWARD THE COOL END OF GUIDANCE TEMPS. MAY HAVE SOME CU/STRATOCU IN             
EASTERN UPPER MI SATURDAY...AS DEVELOPING SE SUB-900MB WINDS BRING              
IN SOME EXTRA MOISTURE OFF OF HURON. AND SOME CIRRUS WILL ARRIVE IN             
NORTHERN/WESTERN ZONES LATE. OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...WITH              
MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S...PERHAPS JUST TOUCHING 80 IN THE SOUTHERN                 
ZONES (LIKE TVC...WHICH WILL BENEFIT FROM A DOWNSLOPING SOUTH WIND).            
SATURDAY NIGHT...DEVELOPING 850MB LOW LEVEL JET WILL PUNCH FROM KS              
INTO WI. THIS WILL BRING AN 850MB THETA-E RIDGE EAST WITH                       
TIME...POKING INTO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES LATE. INCREASING              
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT A BAND OF SHOWERS (AND MAYBE AN               
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM) TRYING TO WORK ACROSS LAKE MI OVERNIGHT.                 
INSTABILITY PROGS FROM EVEN THE AGGRESSIVE NAM DO NOT SUPPORT                   
THUNDER THIS FAR EAST (ONLY 100-200 MUCAPE). BUT RAPID SATURATION OF            
THE MID AND LOW LEVELS AFTER 09Z MAY ALLOW SOME SHOWERS TO WORK IN              
FROM THE WEST. WILL HAVE A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIP AFTER 08Z FROM CAD            
TO DE TOUR AND WEST. OTHERWISE...MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THICKENING             
EVERYWHERE...WITH DRY AIR BELOW 700MB PRECLUDING PRECIP. WILL BE A              
RELATIVELY WARM NIGHT WITH CLOUDS AND NO DECOUPLING...MIN TEMPS                 
MAINLY UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.                                                  
SUNDAY...850MB THETA-E RIDGE WILL TAKE IT/S TIME WORKING INTO AND               
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FORCING/DYNAMICS ARE NOT ESPECIALLY                   
IMPRESSIVE...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DOES IT/S USUAL EARLY MORNING                 
DECAY...AND UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL ONLY APPROACH LAKE MI TOWARD               
EVENING (AS LONG AS THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS HOLD). EXPECT A WEAKENING              
BAND OF SHOWERS TO PRESS FURTHER EAST IN THE MORNING BEFORE                     
COMPLETELY FALLING APART. THEN IT FALLS TO HOW MUCH HEATING WE CAN              
SEE. WITH 850MB TEMPS +16/17C...MAX TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE NEAR 80 TO            
ALLOW SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO COOK OFF SOME STORMS. WE MIGHT               
GET THERE GIVEN THE EXPECTED MILD START TO THE DAY...BUT WITH A FAIR            
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER 80 IS PROBABLY THE TOP END. END RESULT...WILL             
HAVE A CHANCE OF SHRA MOST EVERYWHERE IN THE MORNING...AND ADD TSRA             
FOR THE AFTERNOON. WILL LEAVE PRECIP OUT NEAR SAGINAW BAY WHERE                 
SURFACE RIDGING AND LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL TRY TO HANG ON THE                   
LONGEST.                                                                        
REST OF THE FORECAST...WILL REMOVE THUNDER FROM EASTERN UPPER/NW                
LOWER MI MONDAY. COLD FRONT GOES THRU EARLY AND STRONG LOW LEVEL                
COLD ADVECTION IS WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD CORE ALOFT. WILL LEAVE                 
THUNDER IN NE LOWER...THOUGH CURRENT PREFERRED TIMING SUGGEST EARLY             
MORNING WILL BE THE BEST SHOT THERE. WILL TREND TEMPS DOWNWARD A BIT            
MORE MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY...AS MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN                
SHOWING A FAIRLY DRASTIC COLD SNAP FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. (NOTE THE             
POSSIBILITY OF ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE MT/ND                  
BORDER AREA. FOLKS...SUMMER IS ENDING.)                                         
ZOLTOWSKI                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...DENSE FOG ADVISORY ALONG AND               
SOUTH OF M-72...UNTIL 10 AM.                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
100 AM EDT FRI SEP 15 2006                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FOG WILL BE A BIG AVIATION CONCERN THIS                 
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE STATE. CLEAR                 
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH SOIL MOISTURE HAS SET THE STAGE FOR                
OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO              
CARRY SEVERAL HOURS OF QUARTER MILE VISIBILITY AT FNT AND MBS. THE              
COMBINATION OF THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND AFFECT AND A LITTLE STRONGER               
NORTHERLY WINDS JUST ATOP THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION MAY BE ENOUGH TO              
PREVENT DENSE FOG AT DTW AND DET. AS OF 04Z...THERE IS A SOLID                  
STRATUS DECK BASED AROUND 1200FT MOVING INTO MACOMB COUNTY. THE 00Z             
RUC NOW HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS CLOUD COVER...WHICH BRINGS IT               
INTO DET BY 07Z. THE RUC DOES NOT SUGGEST MUCH ADDITIONAL WESTWARD              
MOVEMENT TO CLOUDS WITH THE LOW LEVEL WINDS FORECAST TO BE MORE                 
NORTHERLY AT DETROIT. AT THIS POINT...WILL BRING THE STRATUS DECK               
INTO DET BUT HOLD OFF AT DTW. THE AFFECT OF THIS STRATUS DECK WILL              
BE TO REDUCE THE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND ALLOW SURFACE VISIBILITY TO                
INCREASE.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
BASED ON OBS IN WISCONSIN YESTERDAY AND GIVEN THE LOWER MID                     
SEPTEMBER SUN ANGLE...FOG SHOULD NOT MIX OUT UNTIL 13-15Z.                      
.PREV DISCUSSION...1001 PM EDT THU SEP 14 2006                                  
UPDATE...                                                                       
FOG IS ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB UNDER             
CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OVER LOWER                  
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND AMPLE                 
MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 2000 FT NEAR THE SURFACE...SUPPORTED BY THE              
00Z DTX SOUNDING...WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD DENSE             
FOG. THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING DID SHOW A STRONG INVERSION NEAR 5K FT.               
DESPITE THIS INVERSION...DRY AIR ADVECTION NEAR THIS LEVEL IS                   
ALLOWING THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST                
AREA TO DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY. THERE IS ALSO A LOW STRATUS DECK               
OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. THE 12KM NAM HAS A REASONABLE HANDLE ON               
THIS STRATUS DECK AND ESSENTIALLY SUGGESTS THE CLOUDS WILL NOT MAKE             
MUCH ADDITIONAL PROGRESS WEST INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE A               
DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA                 
THROUGH 10 AM FRI MORNING. THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND AFFECT AND A LITTLE            
STRONGER WINDS FORECAST ATOP THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION MAY LIMIT THE              
DURATION OF THE DENSE FOG WITHIN THE CITY OF DETROIT AND INNER                  
SUBURBS TO A BRIEF PERIOD AROUND SUNRISE.                                       
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 344 PM EDT THU SEP 14 2006                             
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY                                                 
12Z RAOBS/WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW THE UPPER LOW DOWNSTREAM OVER THE               
LOWER GREAT LAKES...WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL                 
CONUS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI               
VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. VIS SATELLITE SHOWS A HEALTHY                
MVFR/VFR CLOUD FIELD...BEGINNING TO MIX OUT ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER               
AND THE THUMB BUT HOLDING FAST ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA.             
18Z/19Z TAMDAR SOUNDINGS SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE             
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...MORE THAN 15Z RUC/12Z NAM WOULD INDICATE.               
CLOUDS ACROSS THE THUMB HAVE MIXED INTO A DIURNAL CU DECK WHICH WILL            
DISSIPATE BEFORE SUNSET...WHILE THE THICKER STRATOCU DECK ACROSS THE            
THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN CWA MAY LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVENING.                
STILL EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL INCREASE CLOUD             
COVER THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS MAY HAVE SOME IMPACT ON DENSE FOG               
POTENTIAL TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN BY            
12Z FRIDAY...WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS ACROSS THE CWA. NAM/GFS BOTH                
SHOW GOOD LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...INCLUDING SURFACE CONDENSATION                   
PRESSURE DEFICITS BELOW 10MB. THERE WAS PRETTY WIDESPREAD FOG WITH              
VISIBILITIES 1/4SM OR BELOW UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS UPSTREAM ACROSS                
WISCONSIN THIS MORNING...AS WELL AS SOME FOG REPORTS ACROSS NORTHERN            
ONTARIO WHERE OUR AIRMASS WILL ORIGINATE ON DIMINISHING NORTHERLY               
WINDS. WILL ADD AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO               
FRIDAY MORNING. WAS ON THE FENCE ABOUT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS             
POINT...AND DECIDED TO HOLD OFF GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW QUICKLY             
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING...AS WELL AS HOW LOWER DEWPOINTS             
WILL MIX DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER AS THE NORTHERN CLOUDS                      
DISSIPATE. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S LOOK GOOD...WITH LOWER 50S ACROSS              
THE SOUTHERN CWA WITH THE MORE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER.                          
UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY...WITH THE              
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING DOWNSTREAM TO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. RETURN FLOW              
WILL REMAIN PRETTY WEAK BEHIND THE HIGH...AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAY.             
EVEN WITH FULL SUN...GFS LOOKS TOO WARM WITH REMNANT THERMAL TROUGH             
LINGERING OVER THE REGION. WILL DROP HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW                    
DEGREES...GENERALLY INTO THE MID 70S FOR FRIDAY. 19Z READINGS THIS              
AFTERNOON ACROSS WISCONSIN WERE ONLY AROUND 70 TO THE LOW 70S.                  
LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY                                       
WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART AS MODELS STILL            
SUGGEST A WARMUP THROUGH SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES TO THE EAST            
OF A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST & NORTHERN PLAINS.            
WILL ALSO KEEP THE DRY FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY IN THIS PATTERN.                 
AS UPPER LOW SPINS UP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THIS TROUGH ON              
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS STILL SUGGEST AN OCCLUDED COLD FRONT               
WILL SHIFT INTO LOWER MICHIGAN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND PROGRESS TO THE            
EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY MONDAY. THIS SUPPORTS THE 40% CHANCE OF              
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.                                 
THEREAFTER...SHOWERY WEATHER BECOMES ESTABLISHED IN COLD WEST FLOW              
OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. WILL BRING THESE              
SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY TAPER THEM BACK BY            
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BASICALLY TRIMMING AWAY THE SOUTHERN EXTENT DURING            
THE TIMEFRAME.                                                                  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DECIDEDLY COOLER NEXT WEEK...AS COMPARED TO THE            
WEEKEND. MONDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION DAY AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES              
THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGHS WILL BE IN               
THE LOWER 60S TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY IN THE CORE OF THIS COMING COOL AIR             
WITH A SLIGHT MODIFICATION BY THURSDAY. LOWS WILL HOLD PRETTY MUCH              
IN THE 40S THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME AS CLOUDS AND A STEADY WEST WIND              
ACT TO MODERATE THE NIGHTTIME COOLING.                                          
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...ALL SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...MIDNIGHT UNTIL 10            
AM.                                                                             
LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...BRAVENDER                                                          
LONG TERM....DG                                                                 
AVIATION/UPDATE...CONSIDINE                                                     
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
441 AM CDT FRI SEP 15 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM...SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST            
NEAR BIS/DVL/HCO. IT WILL BE DRIVEN INTO CANADA AGAIN TODAY DUE                 
IN PART TO STRONG SOUTH WINDS WHICH WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE. A BI-              
MODAL SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE TODAY OVER THE REGION...THE EARLY AXIS              
ARRIVES ABOUT 18Z THEN ANOTHER LATE IN THE DAY. NAM SHOWS THIS                  
SECOND ONE PRECEDED BY A 50-55 KNOT 850 MB JET ORIENTATED STRAIGHT              
UP THE UPPER RED RIVER VALLEY...AND BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO               
BE FAIRLY WELL MIXED TO THAT LEVEL. MVX/ABR VWP PROFILERS CURRENTLY             
SHOW 45-50 KNOTS AT 3-4 KFT WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH RUC MODEL.                 
WOULD GUESS GFS/UKMET 850 MB WINDS ARE AGAIN UNDERDONE LATER TODAY              
WITH AROUND 40 KNOTS. SO ISSUED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE AFTERNOON             
AND EVENING. THINK IT WILL DROP AFTER DARK SLIGHTLY LATER DUE TO                
SUCH DEEP MIXING AND PERSISTENT SPEEDS. THIS JET AND THE SHORTWAVE              
MAY ALSO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE INITIAL BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO                
PASS BY PROBABLY IN EARLY EVENING. BUT DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE AS ANY              
SCENARIO LEADING TO THAT MUCH BUOYANCY APPEARS TO BE A STRETCH.                 
SATURDAY IS THE MOST LIKELY DAY FOR SEVERE AS DYNAMICS COME                     
TOGETHER. A STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT WILL LIE ACROSS THE NORTH-                  
SOUTH FRONT AS A 100+ KNOT UPPER JET APPROACHES LATE WITH CWA IN                
ITS LEFT/FRONT QUAD. INSTABILITY IS STILL QUESTIONABLE AND HELD                 
OFF IN MENTIONING SEVERE STORMS IN ZONES.                                       
FEW CHANGES NECESSARY TO PRECIPITATION GRIDS EXCEPT REMOVED                     
MENTION OF SNOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS HAS BEEN PROGRESSING                      
SLIGHTLY WARMER/WETTER AS THAT TIME APPROACHES. WET BULB                        
TEMPERATURES LOOK MUCH TOO HIGH TO GET ENOUGH COOLING FOR SNOW.                 
USER REQUESTED RED FLAG WARNING AGAIN RETAINED AS FUELS CONTINUE                
DRY AND WINDS WILL BE A PROBLEM TODAY.                                          
.LONG TERM...THE UPPER LOW WILL WOBBLE A BIT AS IT MOVES ACROSS                 
ND/MN ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. BUT THIS IS ONLY LONG ENOUGH FOR THE                
UPPER JET TO PROGRESS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO GIVE THE LOW A TUG.                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AGAIN A PROBLEM THIS MORNING. THE              
WINDS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE THIS MORNING. THINK CURRENT WIND                  
SPEEDS IN TAFS ARE ON TRACK AND WILL MAKE LITTLE CHANGE IN                      
UPCOMING ROUTINE ISSUANCES.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR                
     NDZ007-NDZ008-NDZ014-NDZ015-NDZ016-NDZ024-NDZ026-NDZ027-                   
     NDZ028-NDZ029-NDZ030-NDZ038-NDZ039-NDZ049-NDZ052-NDZ053-                   
     NDZ054.                                                                    
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR                
     MNZ001-MNZ002-MNZ003-MNZ004-MNZ007-MNZ013-MNZ014-MNZ015-                   
     MNZ022-MNZ027-MNZ028-MNZ029-MNZ030-MNZ031-MNZ040.                          
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS                  
     EVENING FOR MNZ001-MNZ002-MNZ003-MNZ004-MNZ005-MNZ006-                     
     MNZ007-MNZ008-MNZ009-MNZ013-MNZ014-MNZ015-MNZ016-MNZ017-                   
     MNZ022-MNZ023-MNZ024-MNZ027-MNZ028-MNZ029-MNZ030-MNZ031-                   
     MNZ032-MNZ040.                                                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GV                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   nd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
320 AM CDT FRI SEP 15 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT                                        
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGHOUT AND WINDS TODAY WILL BE THE MAIN               
FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY                    
SPINNING OVER THE PAC NW WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FEATURE OF                
NOTE...SLOWLY PROGRESSING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE                  
WEEKEND. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL EJECT OUT OF THE BASE OF THE               
TROUGH...AND PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT BEFORE THE              
MAIN TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATER SAT INTO               
SUN. FIRST SHORTWAVE IS BRINGING SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO MUCH OF THE                
REGION...WITH SOME VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS            
WAVE LIFTS THROUGH THE EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING...WITH A SECOND WAVE            
PUSHING INTO CENTRAL SD BY 00Z FRIDAY. THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW                
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP ADDED MOISTURE AND WARM               
AIR AND THEREFORE COULD SEE SOME CHANCES FOR -TRW WITH EACH WAVE                
PASSING THROUGH. ALTHOUGH CHANCES LOOK BETTER WITH THE SECOND                   
WAVE...AS INSTABILITY IS GREATER AS NOTED IN THE NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS              
DUE TO SOME POSSIBLE SUNSHINE DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL SD BEHIND               
THE INITIAL WAVE. SPC HAS GONE WITH A SLIGHT RISK IN THIS                       
AREA...WITH A WEAK DRYLINE EXPECTED TO BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE              
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE CENTRAL SD...PUSHING EASTWARD               
OVERNIGHT.                                                                      
LOOKING AT WINDS TODAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING STRONGER WINDS ALOFT                
THAN YESTERDAY...WITH A TIGHTENED PRES GRADIENT. LATEST RUC SHOWING             
50 KT AT H85 BY 18Z...WITH NEARLY 30-35KT AT 925MB. ONLY LIMITING               
FACTOR WILL BE THE CLOUDS IN THE AREA...BUT EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN               
THE CLOUDS WITH ENOUGH MIXING THAT ANTICIPATE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA            
BEING MET. THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR EASTERN                    
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA...ENDING THE FURTHEST WEST PORTION EARLIER AS             
GREATEST WINDS ALOFT SHIFT TO THE EAST BY LATE DAY INTO THE EVENING.            
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY WITH THE SFC TROUGH            
AXIS BECOMING SITUATED ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...AND THE COLD                
FRONT MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE WESTERN CWA. BEST SHEAR...AND MOISTURE            
AXIS LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH SPC TARGETING THE                   
EASTERN DAKOTAS FOR A SLIGHT RISK SATURDAY. EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR               
THUNDERSTORMS TO DECREASE ACROSS THE EAST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE            
COLD FRONT PROGRESSES EASTWARD. NAM/GFS BOTH INDICATING DEVELOPMENT             
OF A DRY SLOT BEHIND THE FRONT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY ACROSS THE            
SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN CWA...SO HAVE TAPERED BACK POPS                      
ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION AREA EXPECTED TO               
PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT             
AS THE UPPER LOW BECOMES CENTERED OVER NW MN. 850MB TEMPS FALL TO               
BELOW 0C SUN AFTERNOON INTO SUN NIGHT...WITH 925MB TEMPS REMAINING              
JUST ABOVE FREEZING. ALSO MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW                      
SATURATION IN LAYER OF 0C TO -10C LAYER SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH ALL              
LIQUID PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA.                                    
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY                                            
THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUNS FROM BOTH 18Z AND 00Z ARE A LITTLE SLOWER              
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST. THEY BOTH                
HAVE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NW MN/RED RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z MONDAY.             
OTHER MODELS...00Z NAM/00Z ECMWF/21Z SREF/18Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ALL             
FAVOR MORE OF A PROGRESSIVE LOW...AND THE OPENING UP OF THE LOW JUST            
NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...LIFTING NE. HAVE TRIMMED POPS SOMEWHAT ON              
MONDAY...ANTICIPATING THE QUICKER EXIT. THIS WOULD ALSO RESULT IN               
CLOUDS CLEARING EARLIER THAN THE GFS HAS IT...BUT WAS A LITTLE MORE             
CONSERVATIVE IN DECREASING CLOUDINESS. FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE            
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. WITH THE GFS BEING              
THE OUTLIER...THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BE                 
QUICKER TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THAN THE GFS HAS IT. THE 18Z GFS                  
ENSEMBLE MEAN...HAS THE HIGH INTO CENTRAL SD INSTEAD OF WESTERN SD              
BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS TIMING OF HIGH AND CLOUD COVER BECOME MORE               
CERTAIN...TEMPERATURES COULD BE DECREASED EVEN MORE IN THE WEST AND             
CENTRAL FORECAST AREA. GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS 0 C LINE AT 850 MB                 
RUNNING FROM SIOUX FALLS TO PIERRE TO BUFFALO SD ON MONDAY                      
AFTERNOON. EXPECT MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON               
MONDAY. CLOUDS DECREASE EVEN MORE ON TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES                
REBOUNDING INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...AND THE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY              
DRIFTING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.                                         
FOR WEDNESDAY...THE GFS IS ADVERTISING A RATHER POTENT UPPER LEVEL              
WAVE PUSHING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS PLENTY OF               
SPREAD AMONGST THE MODELS AT THIS TIME. LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE                
BEYOND TUESDAY.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...WIND ADVISORY FOR LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR              
     CAMPBELL...POTTER...WALWORTH...HAND...HYDE...AND BUFFALO                   
     COUNTIES.                                                                  
     WIND ADVISORY FOR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA FOR LATE THIS MORNING             
     THROUGH LATE EVENING.                                                      
MN...WIND ADVISORY FOR BIG STONE AND TRAVERSE COUNTIES FOR LATE THIS            
     MORNING THROUGH LATE EVENING.                                              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ALBRECHT/KNUTSVIG                                                               
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
438 AM MDT FRI SEP 15 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)                                                             
...THUNDERSTORMS AND WINDS ARE MAIN CONCERNS...                                 
SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN               
COLORADO AT THIS TIME...WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER GRAND JUNCTION THIS             
HOUR AND OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN SLOPE.  A BIT UNUSUAL FOR THE                 
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MID SEPTEMBER.  NOCTURNAL CONVECTION SEEMS TO            
BE THE RESULT OF THE LEFT FRONT EXIT REGION OF THE JET PASSING OVER             
THE REGION.  CURRENT H3 JET AXIS IS ALONG A LINE FROM PHOENIX AZ TO             
TRINIDAD COLORADO...WITH RUC80 INDICATED WIND SPEEDS OF 100 KTS NEAR            
IT'S CORE OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.  JET-ENHANCED CLOUDINESS               
AND CONVECTION IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE PICTURES RUNNING FROM                    
NORTHEAST AZ ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS INTO SOUTHWEST COLORADO.                      
AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS COLORADO TODAY...MOST OF THE AREA WILL             
SEE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MOST NUMEROUS WEST...LEAST NUMEROUS             
EAST.  COVERAGE WILL BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN             
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...BUT PRETTY ISOLATED OVER THE PLAINS.             
COULD EVEN SEE SEVERE WEATHER OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST             
AREA AGAIN...WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT.  ADDITIONAL             
STORM THREATS WILL INCLUDE WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH...HEAVY RAIN...AND            
LIGHTNING.  STORMS FARTHER EAST COULD ALSO PRODUCE THESE                        
CONDITIONS...BUT SHOULD BE FEWER AND FARTHER BETWEEN.  THE POTENTIAL            
FOR SOME WET SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR SO WILL CONTINUE OVER             
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ABOVE 11000 TO 12000 FEET.                                 
THE OTHER CONCERN TODAY/TONIGHT IS THE WIND.  MODELS CONTINUE TO                
TAKE THE MAIN LOW CENTER ACROSS WYOMING LATER TONIGHT/SATURDAY.                 
THIS TRACK TYPICALLY BRINGS WINDY CONDITIONS TO COLORADO.  RIGHT                
NOW...BEST GUESS FOR PEAK WINDS...BASED ON LATEST MODEL INDICATED               
WINDS/THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES IS ABOUT 60 MPH FOR THE MOUNTAINS...AND            
ABOUT 45 MPH FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  ALTHOUGH PLACES LIKE THE                
MONARCH PASS SENSOR AT 12K HAVE ALREADY BEEN GUSTING TO AROUND 50               
MPH THIS MORNING...PROBABLY THE BEST WINDOW FOR STRONG WINDS FOR THE            
HIGH COUNTRY WILL COME LATE TONIGHT...AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER MOVES             
INTO WYOMING.  THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...ON THE OTHER HAND...MAY SEE               
THE STRONGEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DURING PEAK HEATING              
AND MIXING.                                                                     
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A LOT LIKE YESTERDAY...EXCEPT POSSIBLY A             
BIT COOLER.  THIS MEANS READINGS OVER THE PLAINS WILL BE ABOVE                  
AVERAGE AGAIN...WHILE READINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALUES WILL            
BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LW                                       
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)                                               
CWFA TRANSITIONING TO A WINDIER AND DRIER PATTERN FOR THE MAJORITY              
OF THE REGION. LATEST LONGER TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT CLOSED                   
UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER EASTERN IDAHO AT 12Z SATURDAY TO PUSH INTO               
NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA BY 18Z MONDAY...WHILE ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER               
LOW PUSHES INTO NORTHERN WYOMING BY NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THEN INTO                
THE UPPER MIDWEST BY NEXT THURSDAY. ALSO...ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER                 
LOW IS PROJECTED TO DROP INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY NEXT                       
THURSDAY.                                                                       
SO FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...EXPECTING GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER               
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWFA FROM SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH AN              
UP-TICK IN POPS BY NEXT THURSDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT               
TIMES...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AND THEN AGAIN FROM NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT              
INTO WEDNESDAY. WARMEST TEMPERATURES BETWEEN SATURDAY AND NEXT                  
WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO OCCUR SATURDAY AND THEN AGAIN BY NEXT                     
TUESDAY WITH COOLEST READINGS PROJECTED MONDAY AND NEXT WEDNESDAY.              
THANKS SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR COORDINATION/COLLABORATION.                      
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
915 AM EDT FRI SEP 15 2006                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
13Z WATER VAPOR AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING AN INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED              
PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. MOST PROMINENT FEATURE BEING THE LARGE            
CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON AND THE ASSOCIATED            
H5 TROUGH NOW COVERING MUCH OF THE PACIFIC COAST AND INTER-MOUNTAIN             
WEST. THE AMPLIFICATION OF THIS TROUGH IS FORCING DOWNSTREAM RIDGING            
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI...OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY. OTHER FEATURES              
OF NOTE INCLUDE A WEAK H5 CLOSED LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE                        
NORTHEASTERN STATES WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH DOWN THE EAST COAST TO            
OUR FORECAST AREA.                                                              
AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT HAS STALLED TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE                 
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. BEHIND THE FRONT THE DRY AIR IS BEGINNING            
TO MAKE ITS PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE NOW CENTERED             
WELL OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WILL BE SETTLED SOUTHEAST TO            
PROVIDE A CALM...DRY...AND PLEASANT MID-SEPTEMBER WEEKEND TO MUCH OF            
THE SOUTHEAST.                                                                  
MORNING TALLAHASSEE SOUNDING SHOWING THE ATMOSPHERE STILL FAIRLY                
MOIST BELOW ABOUT 800MB. HOWEVER ABOVE THIS...THE DRY AIR HAS REALLY            
TAKEN HOLD WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ON THE ORDER OF -25C TO -50C.              
PW VALUES ARE DOWN AROUND 1.35 INCHES (~85% OF NORMAL). THIS VALUE              
IS EXPECTED TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY AS THE DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO               
ADVECT IN. REGIONAL SOUNDING TO THE NORTH FOR KBMX AND KFFC SHOW PW             
VALUES DOWN AROUND 0.65".                                                       
&&                                                                              
REST OF TODAY...                                                                
GOING FORECAST STILL LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH HIGH                   
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S PRETTY MUCH ACROSS THE               
BOARD. GOING FORECAST IS DRY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA...AND THIS                     
IS CERTAINLY REASONABLE WITH THE EXTENT OF THE DRY AIR TRYING TO                
ADVECT IN. HOWEVER...WITH THE LIGHT FLOW...DO EXPECT TO SEE SOME                
DEGREE OF A SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION DEVELOP AS WAS SEEN ON THURSDAY              
AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW VERY ISOLATED                
SHOWERS DOWN TOWARD GULF...SOUTHERN LIBERTY AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES.              
IN FACT...LOCAL WORKSTATION WRF RUNS FROM 06Z ARE SHOWING A FEW DOTS            
OF QPF ACROSS THE WESTERN BIG BEND DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. IF A              
DECENT CU FIELD DOES APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING OR                 
EARLY AFTERNOON...MAY ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE POP TO THESE AREAS                    
DESCRIBED ABOVE...BUT WILL WAIT FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS IN CASE THE               
DRY AIR ALOFT DOES INDEED WIN OUT IN THE END. ANY LIGHT SHOWERS THAT            
DO DEVELOP SHOULD BE BRIEF AND NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON THE                
DAY. SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX HIGH ENOUGH INTO THE COLUMN DURING THE               
AFTERNOON TO TAP SOME OF THE VERY DRY AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE.                    
WITH THIS IN MIND...THINK WE WILL SEE DEWPOINT FALL INTO THE AT                 
LEAST THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE            
COAST. A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN AL...GA AND THE INTERIOR                 
WESTERN PANHANDLE MAY SEE DEWPOINTS REACH THE UPPER 50S FOR A TIME              
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NO CHANGES SEEN NEEDED TO THE MARINE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MORNING             
OFFSHORE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT 5 KNOTS OR            
LESS ACROSS OUR WATERS. SHOULD REMAIN A FAIRLY PLEASANT DAY FOR                 
BOATING WITH WINDS COMING UP JUST A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO               
THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBY AT THE AREA TERMINALS, VFR                    
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. FOR THE OVERNIGHT              
PERIOD, WE ARE LOOKING FOR MVFR VSBY TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AFTER 06Z            
AT ABY AND VLD.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THE OBSERVATIONS THROUGH THE DAY. DRY AIR             
WILL BE MIXING DOWN FROM ALOFT WITH RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE                  
MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS BY MID AFTERNOON. IF               
ENOUGH DRY AIR IS TAPPED IN THIS MIXING...RH VALUES FALLING BELOW               
CRITICAL LEVELS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND               
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. FIRE WX WATCH IN EFFECT FOR                  
INLAND FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF THE BIG BEND STILL LOOKS               
VALID FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LONG DURATION OF RH                 
VALUES BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS REMAINS LIKELY.                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
220 AM EDT FRI SEP 15 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.                                             
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FORM THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY                
FILTER IN OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THE UPPER TROUGH                  
DEEPENS A BIT IN THE SE U.S...ALLOWING MUCH DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN              
OVER THE AREA. THEN AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST ON                   
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE SE U.S.                
THIS WILL BRING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...COOLER MORNING                   
LOWS...WHILE AROUND NORMAL HIGHS EARLY...THEN A BIT WARMER SUNDAY TO            
MONDAY...FOR AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS.                                              
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.                                           
THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS EAST OFF THE GA COAST ON MONDAY...& A                   
GRADUALLY INFLUX OF MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE CWA WITH SOUTH FLOW.                
THEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE CWA ON                  
TUESDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS & TSTMS. CURRENT MODELS PUSH THE             
FRONT OUT OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS FLOW BECOME NW & A               
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE....                                                                     
WINDS & SEAS TO REMAIN LIGHT TODAY & INTO THE WEEKEND. NW-N FLOW                
WILL BECOMING E-SE INTO SUNDAY. SOME WEAK ONSHORE SEA BREEZE IS                 
EXPECTED NEXT FEW DAYS. THEN WINDS & SEAS WILL PICK UP AHEAD OF THE             
NEXT FRONT ON TUESDAY.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ALREADY SEEING SOME PATCHY AREAS OF FOG AT THIS HOUR WITH VLD                   
ALREADY DOWN AROUND 3SM. IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD HAVE             
A REPEAT TO LAST NIGHT THERE WITH VSBYS DROPPING BELOW 1 MILE IN                
SPOTS. LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS ALSO SHOWING SOME LOWER CIGS              
STARTING TO DEVELOP. RIGHT NOW THEY ARE AROUND 5K FT...BUT SHOULD               
LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL START OFF THE TAF PACKAGE WITH MVFR               
VSBYS AT VLD AND ABY AND QUICKLY GET THERE AT ALL OTHER SITES EXCEPT            
PFN NO LATER THAN 08Z. WILL DROP TO IFR CONDS IN TEMPOS AT ABY AND              
TLH AND DROP TO LIFR AT VLD WITH LOW CIGS BELOW FIELD MINS. EXPECT              
TO SEE LOW CIGS/FG LINGER INTO THE HOURS JUST PAST DAYBREAK...BUT               
SHOULD SEE VFR CONDS BY 14Z. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...MUCH                
DRIER AIR SURFACE AND ALOFT CONTINUES TO MOVE IN AND SHOULD ONLY SEE            
FEW-SCT CUMULUS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD                   
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE.                                      
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
USED A DRIER MAV SET & DURATIONS OVER INLAND AREAS OF N FL FOR 35%              
OR LOWER ARE ONLY 1-3 HOURS. SO WILL GO WITH A STATEMENT TODAY.                 
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL HAVE WATCH GOING FOR SAME AREAS. IF MORE                
MIXING OF DRY AIR DOES OCCUR OR TEMPS ARE A BIT WARMER...THEN RED               
FLAG WARNING CRITERIA COLD BE REACH. THIS WILL BE MONITORED.                    
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  92 61 92 64 / 05 00 00 00                                          
PANAMA CITY  89 68 90 71 / 05 00 00 00                                          
DOTHAN       87 60 91 63 / 00 00 00 00                                          
ALBANY       90 61 91 64 / 05 00 00 00                                          
VALDOSTA     90 64 90 66 / 05 05 05 05                                          
CROSS CITY   90 67 92 67 / 10 10 10 05                                          
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...FIRE WX WATCH SATURDAY INLAND AREAS N FL.                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...WOOL                                                                 
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA                                                 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TREXLER/GODSEY                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
1020 AM EDT FRI SEP 15 2006                                                     
.SHORT TERM UPDATE (REST OF THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON)...                      
JUST ISSUED A STATEMENT ALLOWING THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE.              
VSBYS IN S-CNTRL IND AND IN LOUISVILLE HAVE IMPROVED TO AROUND 5                
MILES AT THIS TIME. MEANWHILE...SFC OBS AND VIS IMAGERY SHOW THAT               
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONTINUE OVER A GOOD PART OF CNTRL KY. HOWEVER...            
VSBYS ARE STARTING TO IMPROVE (E.G. 3 MILES AT LEX AND 5 MILES AT               
FFT AT 14 UTC) AS FOG LIFTS INTO LOW CLOUDS. 12 UTC SOUNDINGS FROM              
ILN AND OHX SHOW A SHALLOW MOIST INVERSION (BELOW 950 MB) WHICH HAS             
CONTRIBUTED TO THE CLOUDS AND FOG. AS THE MORNING WEARS ON AND INTO             
THIS AFTN...THIS INVERSION WILL DISSIPATE ALLOWING SUNSHINE TO                  
RETURN TO MOST AREAS. THUS...SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY                 
SUNNY THIS AFTN. AS FOR TEMPS...THEY ARE GETTING A SLOW START DUE TO            
THE CLOUDS BUT WILL REBOUND THIS AFTN. NEVERTHELESS...WILL TRIM BACK            
VALUES A BIT OVER CNTRL KY GIVEN IT WILL STILL TAKE ANOTHER COUPLE              
HOURS TO SCOUR OUT CLOUD COVER.                                                 
NO CHANGES TO TONIGHT'S FCST AT THIS TIME...LOOKS LIKE CLEAR SKY                
WITH MORE PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG BY SAT MORNING.   --TWF                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 245 AM EDT FRI SEP 15 2006)                         
SHORT TERM (TODAY-TONIGHT)...                                                   
LARGE AREA OF SFC HIGH PRES STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES                     
SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS                
LEADING TO NEARLY CALM WINDS AT THE SFC...HOWEVER JUST OFF THE DECK             
PER VWP/ACARS DATA...10-20KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED IN THE LOWEST 1-2KFT            
AGL. EVEN WITH THESE WINDS...SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE ALREADY               
DEVELOPED...MAINLY IN THE RURAL/FOG PRONE AREAS. 11-3.9 SAT PIX                 
INDICATING MOST WIDESPREAD FOG IS IN AREAS S/E OF A BWG-LEX LINE AS             
OF 630Z. LATEST RUC INDICATES WIDESPREAD M1/4SM VSBYS DEVELOPING                
AFTER 9Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS LIGHTEN SLIGHTLY. WILL ISSUE A                 
DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 14Z FOR ENTIRE CWA.                                  
BASED ON RUC DATA FOG SHOULD MIX OUT BY 14-15Z THIS MORNING...                  
LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PER NAM FCST SOUNDINGS. A FEW FLAT CU             
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTN HOURS...CENTERED                  
AROUND 3KFT. TONIGHT...SKIES SHOULD LARGELY BE CLEAR WITH PERHAPS               
SOME WISPS OF CIRRUS DROPPING IN FROM THE NW. NAM SHOWING HIGHER RH             
AROUND 300MB AFTER 2Z. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.                  
REGARDING TEMPERATURES...CONSENSUS OF NAM/GFS MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES            
HIGHS TODAY FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND THIS SEEMS OK. WITH             
CLR SKIES TONIGHT...SHELTERED/VALLEY AREAS MAY DROP INTO THE LOWER              
50S...WITH MID/UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.                                             
CS                                                                              
LONG TERM (SATURDAY-THURSDAY)...                                                
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...                                                          
LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL UNDER A THIN UPPER RIDGE...WHICH IS                      
BEING SQUEEZED BETWEEN A PERSISTENT WEAK TROUGH JUST OFF THE MID                
ATLANTIC COAST...AND A MUCH STRONGER FULL LATITUDE TROUGH SLOWLY                
PROGRESSING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EXPECT                    
WARM...LATE SUMMERLIKE TEMPERATURES WITH PLENTY OF SUN...AND CLEAR              
NIGHTS. GULF MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND WILL BE CONFINED ALONG THE GULF              
COAST...ALTHOUGH SOME WILL BEGIN A NORTHWARD RETURN ON SUNDAY ACROSS            
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.                  
AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT LIGHT EAST WINDS SATURDAY THAT WILL VEER TO             
THE SOUTH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES.                
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE TROUGH                  
EXTENDING FROM AN OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS MICHIGAN SOUTHWESTWARD                  
ACROSS MISSOURI MOVES EASTWARD.                                                 
MONDAY...                                                                       
00Z OPERATIONAL GFS...LIKE ITS 00Z RUN YESTERDAY...IS DEEPER THAN               
ITS ENSEMBLE MODELS WITH THE CLOSED LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS                 
MINNESOTA MONDAY. BOTH NAM AND GFS BRING A THIN STRIP OF HIGH                   
PRECIPITABLE WATER RIGHT ALONG A SHARP COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE              
ACROSS OHIO RIVER MONDAY. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHLY              
DEPENDENT ON EXACT TIMING OF FRONT...AND ANY SOLAR HEATING AVAILABLE            
MONDAY AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...UPPER DYNAMICS WILL SUGGEST            
GOOD CHANCE OF LINEAR CONVECTION RIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHEASTWARD                  
MOVING BOUNDARY AND WILL MAINTAIN 50 POPS FOR CONVECTION MONDAY.                
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...                                                     
LATEST ECMWF IS THE COOLEST WITH THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT                       
TUESDAY...AND BOTH OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF THE DEPTH OF              
THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER                  
MIDWEST MONDAY.  STILL EXPECT A DISTINCT COOLDOWN TUESDAY AND                   
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. BY EARLY TUESDAY...DEEP                 
OCCLUDED CYCLONE WILL BE LOCATED OVER ONTARIO...WITH COLD FRONT                 
ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. CLEARING SHOULD PROCEED PRETTY                 
RAPIDLY EARLY ACROSS REGION TUESDAY AS DRY AIR DESCENDS BEHIND THE              
DEPARTING FRONT.                                                                
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TUESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH            
PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER. WEDNESDAY MORNING LOOKS QUITE COOL WITH UPPER            
40S POSSIBLE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL              
CONTINUE COOL WITH HIGHS IN GENERAL BETWEEN 5 AND 8 DEGREES BELOW               
NORMAL.                                                                         
JSD                                                                             
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
KY...NONE.                                                                      
.IN...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
NOON PM EDT FRI SEP 15 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...FOG IN THE SE HAS RAPIDLY LIFTED/DIMINISHED...AND HAVE                
ALLOWED DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE             
TO BE WIDESPREAD IN THE VICINITY OF GLADWIN/WEST BRANCH. SATELLITE              
BEGINNING TO SUPPORT THINNING/EROSION OF CLOUDS...AND STILL EXPECT              
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TO DEVELOP HERE BY 1 PM.                                     
OTHERWISE...SCT DECK OF CU/SC IS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING TO THE N/W OF               
LOW CLOUD AREA -- A BIT MORE EXTENSIVE THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED.                
WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON FORECAST...                  
BANKING ON MIXING TO EVENTUALLY ENTRAIN DRIER AIR ALOFT AND THIN                
CU/SC. THOUGH SCT CU WILL LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...APX/GRB/DTX            
1200 UTC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT CLOUDS WON/T BECOME TOO WIDESPREAD.             
SMITH                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1020 AM FRI SEP 15                                    
SURFACE REPORTS AND SATELLITE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STUBBORN AREAS OF             
DENSE FOG ACROSS SE PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING THE                  
GRAYLING...HTL...GLADWIN...AND WEST BRANCH AREAS. SATELLITE SUGGESTS            
THAT FOG IS RELATIVELY PATCHY IN THE GRAYLING AND HTL AREAS...AND               
WILL MOST LIKELY THIN QUICKEST. ON THE OTHER HAND...SOLID/DENSE LOW             
CLOUDS ARE ACCOMPANYING THE FOG IN GLADWIN...ARENAC...IOSCO...AND               
PARTS OF OGEMAW COUNTIES. FOG WILL LIKELY BE SLOWER TO DIMINISH                 
HERE...GIVEN TOUGHER TIME INSOLATION WILL HAVE INITIATING MIXING.               
HAVE CONSEQUENTLY EXTENDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH NOON FOR                  
SEVERAL SE COUNTIES.                                                            
PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS ALSO DEVELOPED VICINITY OF THE ST MARYS RIVER              
AND THE SAULT...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY THIN NEXT HOUR OR SO AND WILL NOT            
ISSUE ADVISORY. ALL OTHER AREAS ARE SUNNY THIS MORNING.                         
1200 UTC APX SOUNDING SHOWS SHALLOW MOISTURE WITHIN NOCTURNAL SURFACE           
INVERSION...BUT NOTHING A MID SEPTEMBER SUN SHOULDN/T BE ABLE TO                
EVENTUALLY MIX OUT. MIXING PROCESS WILL LIKELY GIVE RISE TO A                   
SHALLOW SCT SC/CU DECK INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AWAY FROM THE GREAT                 
LAKES -- THOUGH MOST AREAS WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON.                 
EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR SE...WHERE CURRENT CLOUDS AND (JUST UPSTREAM)             
ORIENTATION OF LOW LEVEL RIDGING SUGGESTS A MORE BKN DECK OF SC/CU              
THIS AFTERNOON.                                                                 
1200 UTC APX SOUNDING AND LIKELY MIXING DEPTH SUGGESTS THAT GOING               
HIGH TEMP FORECAST IS STILL ON TARGET...WITH LOWER-MID 70S EXPECTED.            
SMITH                                                                           
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 704 AM FRI SEP 15                                      
UPDATE...PER EARLIER DISCUSSION WILL CANCEL FOG ADVISORY EARLY FOR              
MBL/FRANKFORT/TVC. SUSPECT MOST OF WEXFORD IS IN DECENT SHAPE                   
TOO...BUT WITH CAD AT 1/4SM AT THE MOMENT WILL LEAVE THAT ONE IN. NO            
OTHER CHANGES EXCEPT MINOR CLOUD COVER TWEAKS.                                  
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 500 AM FRI SEP 15                                      
UPDATE...EXPANDING DENSE FOG ADVIS INTO OTSEGO. NO OTHER CHANGES.               
NOT WILLING TO GIVE UP ON HEADLINE YET WEST OF US-131...THOUGH TO               
THIS POINT TVC AND THE COAST HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH FOG YET. COULD                  
CANCEL THOSE COUNTIES AROUND SUNRISE IF THINGS DO NOT CHANGE...STILL            
A COUPLE OF HOURS TO GO YET.                                                    
JZ                                                                              
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 345 AM FRI SEP 15                                      
03Z SURFACE/RUC ANALYSIS AND IR/WV IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH            
DIGGING OVER THE WEST COAST...AND A RELATIVELY FLATTENED RIDGE                  
PARKED ACROSS THE MIDDLE CONUS.  HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE                   
CENTERED NE OF THE GEORGIAN BAY UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS                
HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH 500MB RIDGING WHOSE AXIS RUNS ALONG THE             
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND VERY DRY AIR ALOFT HAS ALLOWED FOR                 
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA.  THESE                 
CONDITIONS HAVE HELPED WIDESPREAD FOG TO FORM ALREADY...MOSTLY                  
CONFINED TO INLAND AREAS SOUTH OF M-32 AS NOTED BY OBS                          
(ACB...3/4SM....GOV....1/2SM...HTL...1/4SM) AND 11U-3.9U SATELLITE              
IMAGERY.  TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S             
AND MOST PLACES ARE AT OR BELOW THEIR CROSSOVER TEMPS WITH THE                  
EXCEPTION OF EASTERN UPPER.  WITH NO PRECIP IN THE PICTURE UNTIL                
SUNDAY MORNING...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE               
AROUND FOG HEADLINES THIS MORNING.                                              
FOG HEADLINES....NOT SURPRISINGLY...FOG HAS BEEN ON THE INCREASE                
THIS MORNING AS TEMPS COOL.  CURRENT OBS AND SATELLITE TRENDS                   
SUPPORT KEEPING THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY GOING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF                 
M-72.  THE QUESTION IS WHETHER FOG WILL BECOME THICK ENOUGH OVER                
NORTHERN LOWER NORTH OF THIS LINE TO WARRANT HEADLINES?  TEMPS HAVE             
FALLEN AT OR BELOW THE CROSSOVER TEMP FOR MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THIS            
AREA BUT FOG HAS NOT FORMED NEARLY AS QUICK AS THEIR COUNTERPARTS TO            
THE SOUTH (07Z GLR JUST WENT 1/4SM FG BUT IS ONLY SITE NORTH OF                 
M-72). WITH FURTHER COOLING TO TAKE PLACE THIS MORNING...EXPECT FOG             
TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...BUT AM RELUCTANT TO CHANGE HEADLINES                
UNTIL MORE EVIDENCE BECOMES APPARENT FROM THE OBS.  WILL HAVE TO                
KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.                          
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...ANOTHER FANTASTIC DAY ON TAP...ONCE THE            
FOG LIFTS THIS MORNING.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE AS NOTED BY THE 850-500MB            
RH 10 TO 20 PCT WILL PREVAIL WITH RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.             
THIS SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS HEIGHT RISES TAKE              
PLACE WITH THE 500MB RIDGE STRENGTHENING AS IT PASSES OVERHEAD.                 
ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF THIS MORNING...LINGERING MOISTURE BELOW THE              
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AS NOTED BY AN ACARS SOUNDING FROM APN                     
(DEWPOINT 9C AT 925MB) LATE LAST EVENING WILL PROMOTE FLAT CU BUILD             
UP ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH MIXING OF THE DRY AIR             
ABOVE...THIS CU WILL DIMINISH DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE                          
AFTERNOON...LEAVING MOST LOCATIONS MOSTLY SUNNY.  850MB TEMPS                   
INCREASE A DEGREE OR TWO...RANGING FROM 12-13C ACROSS NORTHERN                  
LOWER...TO 13-14C OVER EASTERN UPPER...SO WE WILL SEE HIGHS MOSTLY              
IN THE MIDDLE 70S.  THESE TEMPS...COMBINED WITH THE LIGHT WINDS WITH            
THE RIDGING...WILL PROMOTE LAKE BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON (950MB WINDS             
5-10KTS NORTHERN LOWER AND 10-15KTS EASTERN UPPER)...AND WILL KEEP              
AREAS NEAR THE LAKES A FEW DEGREES COOLER.                                      
MPC                                                                             
LATER PERIODS...UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE FROM THE                  
CENTRAL TO THE EASTERN LAKES...AS AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW GETS                  
CARVED OUT IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. QUIET WX LOOKS TO PREVAIL THRU               
SATURDAY...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST FOR              
THE TAIL END OF THE WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES FROM SAT NIGHT ONWARD               
ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGE.                                                         
MODELS...NAM IS RATHER FAST WITH THE COLD FRONT...NEARING LAKE MI BY            
SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS STILL HAS THE BOUNDARY ON THE OTHER SIDE OF             
WI. SREF STARTS SLOW BUT ALMOST CATCHES UP WITH THE NAM...NGM (FOR              
WHAT IT/S WORTH) IS ALSO FAST...CANADIAN IS SLOW. NAM/GFS BOTH                  
SHOWING GOOD CONSISTENCY. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE SLOW SIDE PER USUAL              
MODEL BIASES...BUT THAT STILL MEANS BRINGING IN RAIN FASTER THAN                
EARLIER FORECAST.                                                               
TONIGHT/SATURDAY...WX CONCERNS FAIRLY MINIMAL. ANOTHER CLEAR AND                
STILL NIGHT TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN FOG. BUT SHOULD NOT BE AS MUCH               
FOG AS THIS MORNING...AFTER ANOTHER DAY OF GOOD DIURNAL MIXING AND              
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL STAY               
TOWARD THE COOL END OF GUIDANCE TEMPS. MAY HAVE SOME CU/STRATOCU IN             
EASTERN UPPER MI SATURDAY...AS DEVELOPING SE SUB-900MB WINDS BRING              
IN SOME EXTRA MOISTURE OFF OF HURON. AND SOME CIRRUS WILL ARRIVE IN             
NORTHERN/WESTERN ZONES LATE. OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...WITH              
MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S...PERHAPS JUST TOUCHING 80 IN THE SOUTHERN                 
ZONES (LIKE TVC...WHICH WILL BENEFIT FROM A DOWNSLOPING SOUTH WIND).            
SATURDAY NIGHT...DEVELOPING 850MB LOW LEVEL JET WILL PUNCH FROM KS              
INTO WI. THIS WILL BRING AN 850MB THETA-E RIDGE EAST WITH                       
TIME...POKING INTO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES LATE. INCREASING              
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT A BAND OF SHOWERS (AND MAYBE AN               
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM) TRYING TO WORK ACROSS LAKE MI OVERNIGHT.                 
INSTABILITY PROGS FROM EVEN THE AGGRESSIVE NAM DO NOT SUPPORT                   
THUNDER THIS FAR EAST (ONLY 100-200 MUCAPE). BUT RAPID SATURATION OF            
THE MID AND LOW LEVELS AFTER 09Z MAY ALLOW SOME SHOWERS TO WORK IN              
FROM THE WEST. WILL HAVE A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIP AFTER 08Z FROM CAD            
TO DE TOUR AND WEST. OTHERWISE...MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THICKENING             
EVERYWHERE...WITH DRY AIR BELOW 700MB PRECLUDING PRECIP. WILL BE A              
RELATIVELY WARM NIGHT WITH CLOUDS AND NO DECOUPLING...MIN TEMPS                 
MAINLY UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.                                                  
SUNDAY...850MB THETA-E RIDGE WILL TAKE IT/S TIME WORKING INTO AND               
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FORCING/DYNAMICS ARE NOT ESPECIALLY                   
IMPRESSIVE...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DOES IT/S USUAL EARLY MORNING                 
DECAY...AND UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL ONLY APPROACH LAKE MI TOWARD               
EVENING (AS LONG AS THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS HOLD). EXPECT A WEAKENING              
BAND OF SHOWERS TO PRESS FURTHER EAST IN THE MORNING BEFORE                     
COMPLETELY FALLING APART. THEN IT FALLS TO HOW MUCH HEATING WE CAN              
SEE. WITH 850MB TEMPS +16/17C...MAX TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE NEAR 80 TO            
ALLOW SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO COOK OFF SOME STORMS. WE MIGHT               
GET THERE GIVEN THE EXPECTED MILD START TO THE DAY...BUT WITH A FAIR            
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER 80 IS PROBABLY THE TOP END. END RESULT...WILL             
HAVE A CHANCE OF SHRA MOST EVERYWHERE IN THE MORNING...AND ADD TSRA             
FOR THE AFTERNOON. WILL LEAVE PRECIP OUT NEAR SAGINAW BAY WHERE                 
SURFACE RIDGING AND LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL TRY TO HANG ON THE                   
LONGEST.                                                                        
REST OF THE FORECAST...WILL REMOVE THUNDER FROM EASTERN UPPER/NW                
LOWER MI MONDAY. COLD FRONT GOES THRU EARLY AND STRONG LOW LEVEL                
COLD ADVECTION IS WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD CORE ALOFT. WILL LEAVE                 
THUNDER IN NE LOWER...THOUGH CURRENT PREFERRED TIMING SUGGEST EARLY             
MORNING WILL BE THE BEST SHOT THERE. WILL TREND TEMPS DOWNWARD A BIT            
MORE MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY...AS MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN                
SHOWING A FAIRLY DRASTIC COLD SNAP FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. (NOTE THE             
POSSIBILITY OF ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE MT/ND                  
BORDER AREA. FOLKS...SUMMER IS ENDING.)                                         
ZOLTOWSKI                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1045 AM EDT FRI SEP 15 2006                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE IS THE HIGH TEMPERATURES             
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.                                                             
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOW A LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER                 
GREAT LAKES...A CLOSED LOW OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...AND A              
DEEP LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH            
THE RIDGE IS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A               
LARGE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...A DEEP LOW OVER WESTERN                
SOUTH DAKOTA. A FRONTAL SYSTEM LEADS THE LOW AND STRETCHES NORTHEAST            
THROUGH CENTRAL ONTARIO. DRY AIR IS ENTRENCHED OVER ALL OVER THE                
UPPER GREAT LAKES AND ENTIRE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. FOG WAS OVER             
MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA THIS MORNING AND IS                    
GRADUALLY BURNING OFF.                                                          
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE                      
AFTERNOON...AND THE SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN             
U.P. THE SURFACE RIDGE LIKEWISE WILL REMAIN OVER THE UPPER GREAT                
LAKES KEEPING THE AIR MASS DRY...WHILE THE SOUTH DAKOTA LOW WILL                
EXTEND NORTH INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. VISIBLE SATELLITE STILL                 
SHOWING SOME FOG OVER THE CENTRAL U.P. THIS SHOULD BURN SHORTLY.                
OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR...PROVIDING A LOT OF SUN FOR THE             
AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT OVER               
THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. HOWEVER...THEY SHOULD CATCH UP AS THE               
SUN RISES. FOR THE EAST AND ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE                       
TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THE DEW POINTS              
ARE A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE AS WELL. ALSO THERE IS A LITTLE MORE                
CLOUD COVER ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE. THE HIGHER DEW POINTS AND            
CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. PLAN TO LEAVE THE              
FORECAST PRETTY MUCH AS IS BUT WILL UPDATE FOR WORDING.                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DLG                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1020 AM EDT FRI SEP 15 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...SURFACE REPORTS AND SATELLITE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STUBBORN            
AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS SE PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING             
THE GRAYLING...HTL...GLADWIN...AND WEST BRANCH AREAS. SATELLITE                 
SUGGESTS THAT FOG IS RELATIVELY PATCHY IN THE GRAYLING AND HTL                  
AREAS...AND WILL MOST LIKELY THIN QUICKEST. ON THE OTHER                        
HAND...SOLID/DENSE LOW CLOUDS ARE ACCOMPANYING THE FOG IN                       
GLADWIN...ARENAC...IOSCO...AND PARTS OF OGEMAW COUNTIES. FOG WILL               
LIKELY BE SLOWER TO DIMINISH HERE...GIVEN TOUGHER TIME INSOLATION               
WILL HAVE INITIATING MIXING. HAVE CONSEQUENTLY EXTENDED DENSE FOG               
ADVISORY THROUGH NOON FOR SEVERAL SE COUNTIES.                                  
PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS ALSO DEVELOPED VICINITY OF THE ST MARYS RIVER              
AND THE SAULT...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY THIN NEXT HOUR OR SO AND WILL NOT            
ISSUE ADVISORY. ALL OTHER AREAS ARE SUNNY THIS MORNING.                         
1200 UTC APX SOUNDING SHOWS SHALLOW MOISTURE WITHIN NOCTURNAL SURFACE           
INVERSION...BUT NOTHING A MID SEPTEMBER SUN SHOULDN/T BE ABLE TO                
EVENTUALLY MIX OUT. MIXING PROCESS WILL LIKELY GIVE RISE TO A                   
SHALLOW SCT SC/CU DECK INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AWAY FROM THE GREAT                 
LAKES -- THOUGH MOST AREAS WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON.                 
EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR SE...WHERE CURRENT CLOUDS AND (JUST UPSTREAM)             
ORIENTATION OF LOW LEVEL RIDGING SUGGESTS A MORE BKN DECK OF SC/CU              
THIS AFTERNOON.                                                                 
1200 UTC APX SOUNDING AND LIKELY MIXING DEPTH SUGGESTS THAT GOING               
HIGH TEMP FORECAST IS STILL ON TARGET...WITH LOWER-MID 70S EXPECTED.            
SMITH                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 704 AM FRI SEP 15                                     
UPDATE...PER EARLIER DISCUSSION WILL CANCEL FOG ADVISORY EARLY FOR              
MBL/FRANKFORT/TVC. SUSPECT MOST OF WEXFORD IS IN DECENT SHAPE                   
TOO...BUT WITH CAD AT 1/4SM AT THE MOMENT WILL LEAVE THAT ONE IN. NO            
OTHER CHANGES EXCEPT MINOR CLOUD COVER TWEAKS.                                  
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 500 AM FRI SEP 15                                      
UPDATE...EXPANDING DENSE FOG ADVIS INTO OTSEGO. NO OTHER CHANGES.               
NOT WILLING TO GIVE UP ON HEADLINE YET WEST OF US-131...THOUGH TO               
THIS POINT TVC AND THE COAST HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH FOG YET. COULD                  
CANCEL THOSE COUNTIES AROUND SUNRISE IF THINGS DO NOT CHANGE...STILL            
A COUPLE OF HOURS TO GO YET.                                                    
JZ                                                                              
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 345 AM FRI SEP 15                                      
03Z SURFACE/RUC ANALYSIS AND IR/WV IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH            
DIGGING OVER THE WEST COAST...AND A RELATIVELY FLATTENED RIDGE                  
PARKED ACROSS THE MIDDLE CONUS.  HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE                   
CENTERED NE OF THE GEORGIAN BAY UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS                
HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH 500MB RIDGING WHOSE AXIS RUNS ALONG THE             
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND VERY DRY AIR ALOFT HAS ALLOWED FOR                 
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA.  THESE                 
CONDITIONS HAVE HELPED WIDESPREAD FOG TO FORM ALREADY...MOSTLY                  
CONFINED TO INLAND AREAS SOUTH OF M-32 AS NOTED BY OBS                          
(ACB...3/4SM....GOV....1/2SM...HTL...1/4SM) AND 11U-3.9U SATELLITE              
IMAGERY.  TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S             
AND MOST PLACES ARE AT OR BELOW THEIR CROSSOVER TEMPS WITH THE                  
EXCEPTION OF EASTERN UPPER.  WITH NO PRECIP IN THE PICTURE UNTIL                
SUNDAY MORNING...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE               
AROUND FOG HEADLINES THIS MORNING.                                              
FOG HEADLINES....NOT SURPRISINGLY...FOG HAS BEEN ON THE INCREASE                
THIS MORNING AS TEMPS COOL.  CURRENT OBS AND SATELLITE TRENDS                   
SUPPORT KEEPING THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY GOING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF                 
M-72.  THE QUESTION IS WHETHER FOG WILL BECOME THICK ENOUGH OVER                
NORTHERN LOWER NORTH OF THIS LINE TO WARRANT HEADLINES?  TEMPS HAVE             
FALLEN AT OR BELOW THE CROSSOVER TEMP FOR MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THIS            
AREA BUT FOG HAS NOT FORMED NEARLY AS QUICK AS THEIR COUNTERPARTS TO            
THE SOUTH (07Z GLR JUST WENT 1/4SM FG BUT IS ONLY SITE NORTH OF                 
M-72). WITH FURTHER COOLING TO TAKE PLACE THIS MORNING...EXPECT FOG             
TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...BUT AM RELUCTANT TO CHANGE HEADLINES                
UNTIL MORE EVIDENCE BECOMES APPARENT FROM THE OBS.  WILL HAVE TO                
KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.                          
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...ANOTHER FANTASTIC DAY ON TAP...ONCE THE            
FOG LIFTS THIS MORNING.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE AS NOTED BY THE 850-500MB            
RH 10 TO 20 PCT WILL PREVAIL WITH RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.             
THIS SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS HEIGHT RISES TAKE              
PLACE WITH THE 500MB RIDGE STRENGTHENING AS IT PASSES OVERHEAD.                 
ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF THIS MORNING...LINGERING MOISTURE BELOW THE              
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AS NOTED BY AN ACARS SOUNDING FROM APN                     
(DEWPOINT 9C AT 925MB) LATE LAST EVENING WILL PROMOTE FLAT CU BUILD             
UP ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH MIXING OF THE DRY AIR             
ABOVE...THIS CU WILL DIMINISH DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE                          
AFTERNOON...LEAVING MOST LOCATIONS MOSTLY SUNNY.  850MB TEMPS                   
INCREASE A DEGREE OR TWO...RANGING FROM 12-13C ACROSS NORTHERN                  
LOWER...TO 13-14C OVER EASTERN UPPER...SO WE WILL SEE HIGHS MOSTLY              
IN THE MIDDLE 70S.  THESE TEMPS...COMBINED WITH THE LIGHT WINDS WITH            
THE RIDGING...WILL PROMOTE LAKE BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON (950MB WINDS             
5-10KTS NORTHERN LOWER AND 10-15KTS EASTERN UPPER)...AND WILL KEEP              
AREAS NEAR THE LAKES A FEW DEGREES COOLER.                                      
MPC                                                                             
LATER PERIODS...UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE FROM THE                  
CENTRAL TO THE EASTERN LAKES...AS AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW GETS                  
CARVED OUT IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. QUIET WX LOOKS TO PREVAIL THRU               
SATURDAY...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST FOR              
THE TAIL END OF THE WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES FROM SAT NIGHT ONWARD               
ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGE.                                                         
MODELS...NAM IS RATHER FAST WITH THE COLD FRONT...NEARING LAKE MI BY            
SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS STILL HAS THE BOUNDARY ON THE OTHER SIDE OF             
WI. SREF STARTS SLOW BUT ALMOST CATCHES UP WITH THE NAM...NGM (FOR              
WHAT IT/S WORTH) IS ALSO FAST...CANADIAN IS SLOW. NAM/GFS BOTH                  
SHOWING GOOD CONSISTENCY. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE SLOW SIDE PER USUAL              
MODEL BIASES...BUT THAT STILL MEANS BRINGING IN RAIN FASTER THAN                
EARLIER FORECAST.                                                               
TONIGHT/SATURDAY...WX CONCERNS FAIRLY MINIMAL. ANOTHER CLEAR AND                
STILL NIGHT TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN FOG. BUT SHOULD NOT BE AS MUCH               
FOG AS THIS MORNING...AFTER ANOTHER DAY OF GOOD DIURNAL MIXING AND              
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL STAY               
TOWARD THE COOL END OF GUIDANCE TEMPS. MAY HAVE SOME CU/STRATOCU IN             
EASTERN UPPER MI SATURDAY...AS DEVELOPING SE SUB-900MB WINDS BRING              
IN SOME EXTRA MOISTURE OFF OF HURON. AND SOME CIRRUS WILL ARRIVE IN             
NORTHERN/WESTERN ZONES LATE. OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...WITH              
MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S...PERHAPS JUST TOUCHING 80 IN THE SOUTHERN                 
ZONES (LIKE TVC...WHICH WILL BENEFIT FROM A DOWNSLOPING SOUTH WIND).            
SATURDAY NIGHT...DEVELOPING 850MB LOW LEVEL JET WILL PUNCH FROM KS              
INTO WI. THIS WILL BRING AN 850MB THETA-E RIDGE EAST WITH                       
TIME...POKING INTO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES LATE. INCREASING              
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT A BAND OF SHOWERS (AND MAYBE AN               
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM) TRYING TO WORK ACROSS LAKE MI OVERNIGHT.                 
INSTABILITY PROGS FROM EVEN THE AGGRESSIVE NAM DO NOT SUPPORT                   
THUNDER THIS FAR EAST (ONLY 100-200 MUCAPE). BUT RAPID SATURATION OF            
THE MID AND LOW LEVELS AFTER 09Z MAY ALLOW SOME SHOWERS TO WORK IN              
FROM THE WEST. WILL HAVE A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIP AFTER 08Z FROM CAD            
TO DE TOUR AND WEST. OTHERWISE...MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THICKENING             
EVERYWHERE...WITH DRY AIR BELOW 700MB PRECLUDING PRECIP. WILL BE A              
RELATIVELY WARM NIGHT WITH CLOUDS AND NO DECOUPLING...MIN TEMPS                 
MAINLY UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.                                                  
SUNDAY...850MB THETA-E RIDGE WILL TAKE IT/S TIME WORKING INTO AND               
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FORCING/DYNAMICS ARE NOT ESPECIALLY                   
IMPRESSIVE...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DOES IT/S USUAL EARLY MORNING                 
DECAY...AND UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL ONLY APPROACH LAKE MI TOWARD               
EVENING (AS LONG AS THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS HOLD). EXPECT A WEAKENING              
BAND OF SHOWERS TO PRESS FURTHER EAST IN THE MORNING BEFORE                     
COMPLETELY FALLING APART. THEN IT FALLS TO HOW MUCH HEATING WE CAN              
SEE. WITH 850MB TEMPS +16/17C...MAX TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE NEAR 80 TO            
ALLOW SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO COOK OFF SOME STORMS. WE MIGHT               
GET THERE GIVEN THE EXPECTED MILD START TO THE DAY...BUT WITH A FAIR            
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER 80 IS PROBABLY THE TOP END. END RESULT...WILL             
HAVE A CHANCE OF SHRA MOST EVERYWHERE IN THE MORNING...AND ADD TSRA             
FOR THE AFTERNOON. WILL LEAVE PRECIP OUT NEAR SAGINAW BAY WHERE                 
SURFACE RIDGING AND LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL TRY TO HANG ON THE                   
LONGEST.                                                                        
REST OF THE FORECAST...WILL REMOVE THUNDER FROM EASTERN UPPER/NW                
LOWER MI MONDAY. COLD FRONT GOES THRU EARLY AND STRONG LOW LEVEL                
COLD ADVECTION IS WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD CORE ALOFT. WILL LEAVE                 
THUNDER IN NE LOWER...THOUGH CURRENT PREFERRED TIMING SUGGEST EARLY             
MORNING WILL BE THE BEST SHOT THERE. WILL TREND TEMPS DOWNWARD A BIT            
MORE MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY...AS MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN                
SHOWING A FAIRLY DRASTIC COLD SNAP FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. (NOTE THE             
POSSIBILITY OF ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE MT/ND                  
BORDER AREA. FOLKS...SUMMER IS ENDING.)                                         
ZOLTOWSKI                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON...           
       MIZ028>030-034>036-041-042                                               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1022 AM EDT FRI SEP 15 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...ENOUGH TO             
DROP THE FOG ADVISORY. ONLY LINGERING CONCERN IS ACROSS THE SAGINAW             
VALLEY. MBS HAS RECENTLY CLIMBED TO MVFR FOG...AN HOUR OR SO BEHIND             
HYX. THERE WILL BE SOME FOG LINGERING BETWEEN MBS AND MOP/AMN WHICH             
ARE STILL 1/4SM OR LESS...BUT A TIMING TO THIS EDGE SHOWS A SLOW AND            
STEADY WESTWARD PROGRESS. OTHERWISE VIS SATELLITE SHOWS THE MVFR                
STATUS THAT HELPED DISSIPATE THE FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA IS                  
HOLDING FAST. EXPECT THAT ANY THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS WILL FILL IN             
SOON WITH CU...AND THAT THE STATUS ITSELF WILL TAKE ON A MORE                   
CELLULAR/DIURNAL LOOK. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A POOR HANDLE ON THE             
AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH 14Z TAMDAR                
SOUNDINGS OUT OF DTW NEARLY SATURATED BELOW 900MB...WHILE THE 14Z               
RUC INITIALIZATION SHOWS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF UP TO 7C IN THE                
SAME LAYER. NOT TOO MUCH DRY AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED...WITH CLOUD                
EROSION THROUGH MIXING INTO THE MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. WILL INCREASE             
SKY COVER...CARRYING MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE BULK OF THE                      
DAY...ONLY CLOUDS ONLY BEGINNING TO MIX OUT BY LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN            
THE EXPECTED DIURNAL TRANSITION FROM STATUS TO CU...CLOUDS SHOULD               
DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH SUNSET LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AFTER              
00Z. WILL ALSO DROP HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES GIVEN LIMITED               
INSOLATION.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 750 AM EDT FRI SEP 15 2006                            
AVIATION...                                                                     
DENSE FOG WAS CAUSING LIFR CONDITIONS AT MBS/FNT. A LOW STRATUS DECK            
OF ABOUT 1000-1500 HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD AND SOUTHWARD.  THIS                
DECK HAS BEEN WIPING OUT FOG AS IT MOVES ALONG LEAVING DET/DTW WITH             
MVFR CEILINGS.  AS THE DAY HEATS UP...THIS DECK SHOULD STOP                     
EXPANDING AND BEGIN MIXING OUT THIS MORNING LEAVING GENERALLY SCT               
CONDITIONS.  SOUNDINGS SHOWS SOME INSTABILITY IN LOW LEVELS SO COULD            
SEE OCCASIONAL BKN 2500FT MVFR CEILINGS IN THE AFTERNOON...                     
ESPECIALLY DET/DTW WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT MORE                  
AVAILABLE.                                                                      
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT                                                  
SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER HEAD TODAY AND TONIGHT.               
FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE FOG AND CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING.  LARGE               
SHIELD OF LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN WORKING BACK AROUND UPPER LOW SYSTEM             
OVER PENNSYLVANIA INTO THE EASTERN THUMB AND IS CONTINUING TO SPREAD            
SOUTH AND WESTWARD UNDER INVERSION.  THIS IS ALSO BEING HELPED BY               
WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDING BACK WEST INTO THUMB. GFS SEEMS TO             
HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS LOOKING AT THE 925-950MB MOISTURE                  
FIELD. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY MAKE IT NO FURTHER WEST THEN                      
US23/US23/I75 LINE.                                                             
WILL CONTINUE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 14Z AS MOST OBSERVATIONS             
SHOWING VISIBILITIES 1/4 MILE OR LESS...EXCEPTIONS HAVE BEEN MOST OF            
WAYNE COUNTY WHERE URBAN HEAT ISLAND AFFECT SEEMS TO HAVE KEPT DEW              
POINT SPREAD APART FAR ENOUGH TO LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT SO FAR AND               
EASTERN MACOMB COUNTY WHERE CLOUD COVER HAS PREVENT DECENT                      
RADIATIONAL COOLING.  STILL SEVERAL HOURS TO GO BEFORE SUNRISE SO DO            
EXPECT SOME DEGREE OF FOG TO DEVELOP IN THESE AREAS BUT MORE OF                 
PATCHY DENSE FOG THEN WIDESPREAD.                                               
FOG AND CLOUDS WILL MIX AND DISSIPATE OUT BY NOON.  MODEL SOUNDINGS             
SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN                   
PORTIONS OF CWA TO GENERATE SCT-BKN CU THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL CARRY             
PARTLY CLOUDY THOSE AREAS AND MOSTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE.                           
SHOULD HAVE CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH OUT ANY LOW LEVEL CLOUD                    
INTRUSION LIKE OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AGAIN                
TONIGHT SO WILL CARRY AREAS OF FOG.  NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DENSE             
FOG BUT WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHY DENSE FOG.                                       
WILL GO WITH WARMER GFS NUMBERS AS MET GUIDANCE UNDER DID YESTERDAYS            
HIGHS AND SEEMS A BIT LOW FOR TODAY.                                            
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY                                           
A BRIEF WARM UP THEN AUTUMN CONDITIONS SETTLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES              
FOR NEXT WEEK (BUT NOT AS EMPHATIC PER THE GFS).                                
LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT IS UNDERWAY WITH DEEP AND COLD TROUGH                 
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND                   
SURFACE LEE-CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.  IN TURN THE               
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY WITH STRENGTHENING SURFACE                
HIGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND TENNESSEE VALLEY THAT WILL REMAIN IN                
PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY.  MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH OCCLUDED FRONT              
IN THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.  THE                       
NMM/CANADIAN SUGGEST 500MB WAVE ON THE ENTRANCE SIDE OF THE JET WILL            
AMPLIFY AND TRACK INTO THE STATE LATE SUNDAY BUT CONSENSUS FROM THE             
GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST HOLDING OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT GIVEN STRENGTH OF              
UPSTREAM TROUGH AND TRENDS SUGGEST A LITTLE SLOWER PROGRESS.                    
THIS CONTINUES WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY                 
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND WE WILL RAISE POPS A LITTLE MORE.                 
DEEP THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG WITH 30-40KTS LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORTS               
THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES AND WITH ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS TO AID IN            
ADDITIONAL LIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR            
WITH THE OFFICIAL START TO AUTUMN THIS WEEKEND.                                 
NOT TO WORRY AS THE CALENDAR WILL CATCH UP QUICKLY EARLY NEXT WEEK              
WITH FROPA EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND COLD ADVECTION TO                   
PERUSE.  THE GFS SEEMS TO BE OVERDEVELOPED WITH THE CLOSED 500MB LOW            
AND WE PREFER THE MORE OPEN NATURE SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF/CANADIAN.               
THIS SHOULD KEEP THOSE NEGATIVE 850MB TEMPS A BIT IN CHECK (FOR NOW)            
ACROSS THE STATE BUT NEVERTHELESS LOWER SINGLE DIGIT READINGS                   
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PROVIDE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS             
THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME LAKE                 
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.                                         
THEN FOLLOWING THE ECMWF/CANADIAN IDEA OF BUILDING HEIGHTS AND                  
SURFACE PRESSURES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE NORTHERN                
PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  HOWEVER...THIS              
WILL NOT BE A CLEAN FORECAST AS INDICATIONS ARE WE QUICKLY                      
TRANSITION INTO A ZONAL FLOW WITH A FURTHER SOUTH POSITION OF THE               
MAIN UPPER JET.  LIKELY SEE MORE CLOUDS BUT WILL REFRAIN FROM THE               
MENTION OF PRECIP AT THIS TIME.  SUMMER IS INDEED COMING TO AN END.             
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE.......BRAVENDER                                                          
AVIATION.....DRC                                                                
SHORT TERM...DRC                                                                
LONG TERM....BGM                                                                
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
750 AM EDT FRI SEP 15 2006                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
DENSE FOG WAS CAUSING LIFR CONDITIONS AT MBS/FNT. A LOW STRATUS DECK            
OF ABOUT 1000-1500 HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD AND SOUTHWARD.  THIS                
DECK HAS BEEN WIPING OUT FOG AS IT MOVES ALONG LEAVING DET/DTW WITH             
MVFR CEILINGS.  AS THE DAY HEATS UP...THIS DECK SHOULD STOP                     
EXPANDING AND BEGIN MIXING OUT THIS MORNING LEAVING GENERALLY SCT               
CONDITIONS.  SOUNDINGS SHOWS SOME INSTABILITY IN LOW LEVELS SO COULD            
SEE OCCASSIONAL BKN 2500FT MVFR CEILINGS IN THE AFTERNOON...                    
ESPECIALLY DET/DTW WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT MORE                  
AVAILABLE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...                                                                      
HEAT FLUX FROM STRATUS DECK HAS REALLY TAKEN A TOLL ON FOG                      
DEVELOPMENT AND EXISTING DENSE FOG.  VISIBILITIES IN AREAS WENT FROM            
LESS THEN A 1/4 MILE TO OVER 10 IN LESS THEN AN HOUR.  LOW CLOUDS HAVE          
MADE IT TO ABOUT CARO IN TUSCOLA COUNTY SOUTH THROUGH PONTIAC TO                
DETROIT.  LOOKS LIKE THE WESTWARD ADVANCEMENT IS SLOWING BUT SHOULD             
CONTINUE SOUTH.                                                                 
WILL DISCONTINUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM WAYNE COUNTY ON NORTH AND              
EAST.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT                                                 
SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER HEAD TODAY AND TONIGHT.               
FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE FOG AND CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING.  LARGE               
SHIELD OF LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN WORKING BACK AROUND UPPER LOW SYSTEM             
OVER PENNSYLVANIA INTO THE EASTERN THUMB AND IS CONTINUING TO SPREAD            
SOUTH AND WESTWARD UNDER INVERSION.  THIS IS ALSO BEING HELPED BY               
WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDING BACK WEST INTO THUMB. GFS SEEMS TO             
HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS LOOKING AT THE 925-950MB MOISTURE                  
FIELD. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY MAKE IT NO FURTHER WEST THEN                      
US23/US23/I75 LINE.                                                             
WILL CONTINUE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 14Z AS MOST OBSERVATIONS             
SHOWING VISIBILITIES 1/4 MILE OR LESS...EXCEPTIONS HAVE BEEN MOST OF            
WAYNE COUNTY WHERE URBAN HEAT ISLAND AFFECT SEEMS TO HAVE KEPT DEW              
POINT SPREAD APART FAR ENOUGH TO LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT SO FAR AND               
EASTERN MACOMB COUNTY WHERE CLOUD COVER HAS PREVENT DECENT                      
RADIATIONAL COOLING.  STILL SEVERAL HOURS TO GO BEFORE SUNRISE SO DO            
EXPECT SOME DEGREE OF FOG TO DEVELOP IN THESE AREAS BUT MORE OF                 
PATCHY DENSE FOG THEN WIDESPREAD.                                               
FOG AND CLOUDS WILL MIX AND DISSIPATE OUT BY NOON.  MODEL SOUNDINGS             
SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN                   
PORTIONS OF CWA TO GENERATE SCT-BKN CU THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL CARRY             
PARTLY CLOUDY THOSE AREAS AND MOSTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE.                           
SHOULD HAVE CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH OUT ANY LOW LEVEL CLOUD                    
INTRUSION LIKE OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AGAIN                
TONIGHT SO WILL CARRY AREAS OF FOG.  NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DENSE             
FOG BUT WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHY DENSE FOG.                                       
WILL GO WITH WARMER GFS NUMBERS AS MET GUIDANCE UNDER DID YESTERDAYS            
HIGHS AND SEEMS A BIT LOW FOR TODAY.                                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY                                          
A BRIEF WARM UP THEN AUTUMN CONDITIONS SETTLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES              
FOR NEXT WEEK (BUT NOT AS EMPHATIC PER THE GFS).                                
LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT IS UNDERWAY WITH DEEP AND COLD TROUGH                 
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND                   
SURFACE LEE-CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.  IN TURN THE               
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY WITH STRENGTHENING SURFACE                
HIGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND TENNESSEE VALLEY THAT WILL REMAIN IN                
PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY.  MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH OCCLUDED FRONT              
IN THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.  THE                       
NMM/CANADIAN SUGGEST 500MB WAVE ON THE ENTRANCE SIDE OF THE JET WILL            
AMPLIFY AND TRACK INTO THE STATE LATE SUNDAY BUT CONSENSUS FROM THE             
GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST HOLDING OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT GIVEN STRENGTH OF              
UPSTREAM TROUGH AND TRENDS SUGGEST A LITTLE SLOWER PROGRESS.                    
THIS CONTINUES WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY                 
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND WE WILL RAISE POPS A LITTLE MORE.                 
DEEP THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG WITH 30-40KTS LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORTS               
THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES AND WITH ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS TO AID IN            
ADDITIONAL LIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR            
WITH THE OFFICIAL START TO AUTUMN THIS WEEKEND.                                 
NOT TO WORRY AS THE CALENDAR WILL CATCH UP QUICKLY EARLY NEXT WEEK              
WITH FROPA EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND COLD ADVECTION TO                   
PERUSE.  THE GFS SEEMS TO BE OVERDEVELOPED WITH THE CLOSED 500MB LOW            
AND WE PREFER THE MORE OPEN NATURE SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF/CANADIAN.               
THIS SHOULD KEEP THOSE NEGATIVE 850MB TEMPS A BIT IN CHECK (FOR NOW)            
ACROSS THE STATE BUT NEVERTHELESS LOWER SINGLE DIGIT READINGS                   
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PROVIDE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS             
THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME LAKE                 
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.                                         
THEN FOLLOWING THE ECMWF/CANADIAN IDEA OF BUILDING HEIGHTS AND                  
SURFACE PRESSURES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE NORTHERN                
PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  HOWEVER...THIS              
WILL NOT BE A CLEAN FORECAST AS INDICATIONS ARE WE QUICKLY                      
TRANSITION INTO A ZONAL FLOW WITH A FURTHER SOUTH POSITION OF THE               
MAIN UPPER JET.  LIKELY SEE MORE CLOUDS BUT WILL REFRAIN FROM THE               
MENTION OF PRECIP AT THIS TIME.  SUMMER IS INDEED COMING TO AN END.             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 100 AM EDT FRI SEP 15 2006                            
AVIATION...                                                                     
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FOG WILL BE A BIG AVIATION CONCERN THIS                 
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE STATE. CLEAR                 
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH SOIL MOISTURE HAS SET THE STAGE FOR                
OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO              
CARRY SEVERAL HOURS OF QUARTER MILE VISIBILITY AT FNT AND MBS. THE              
COMBINATION OF THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND AFFECT AND A LITTLE STRONGER               
NORTHERLY WINDS JUST ATOP THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION MAY BE ENOUGH TO              
PREVENT DENSE FOG AT DTW AND DET. AS OF 04Z...THERE IS A SOLID                  
STRATUS DECK BASED AROUND 1200FT MOVING INTO MACOMB COUNTY. THE 00Z             
RUC NOW HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS CLOUD COVER...WHICH BRINGS IT               
INTO DET BY 07Z. THE RUC DOES NOT SUGGEST MUCH ADDITIONAL WESTWARD              
MOVEMENT TO CLOUDS WITH THE LOW LEVEL WINDS FORECAST TO BE MORE                 
NORTHERLY AT DETROIT. AT THIS POINT...WILL BRING THE STRATUS DECK               
INTO DET BUT HOLD OFF AT DTW. THE AFFECT OF THIS STRATUS DECK WILL              
BE TO REDUCE THE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND ALLOW SURFACE VISIBILITY TO                
INCREASE.                                                                       
BASED ON OBS IN WISCONSIN YESTERDAY AND GIVEN THE LOWER MID                     
SEPTEMBER SUN ANGLE...FOG SHOULD NOT MIX OUT UNTIL 13-15Z.                      
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...MIZ047-MIZ048-MIZ049-MIZ053-MIZ054-MIZ055-            
     MIZ060-MIZ061-MIZ062-MIZ063-MIZ068-MIZ069-MIZ070-MIZ075-                   
     MIZ076-MIZ082-MIZ083 UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY.                                   
LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...DRC                                                                
LONG TERM....BGM                                                                
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
704 AM EDT FRI SEP 15 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...PER EARLIER DISCUSSION WILL CANCEL FOG ADVISORY EARLY FOR             
MBL/FRANKFORT/TVC. SUSPECT MOST OF WEXFORD IS IN DECENT SHAPE                   
TOO...BUT WITH CAD AT 1/4SM AT THE MOMENT WILL LEAVE THAT ONE IN. NO            
OTHER CHANGES EXCEPT MINOR CLOUD COVER TWEAKS.                                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION ISSUED 500 AM FRI SEP 15...                                    
UPDATE...EXPANDING DENSE FOG ADVIS INTO OTSEGO. NO OTHER CHANGES.               
NOT WILLING TO GIVE UP ON HEADLINE YET WEST OF US-131...THOUGH TO               
THIS POINT TVC AND THE COAST HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH FOG YET. COULD                  
CANCEL THOSE COUNTIES AROUND SUNRISE IF THINGS DO NOT CHANGE...STILL            
A COUPLE OF HOURS TO GO YET.                                                    
JZ                                                                              
03Z SURFACE/RUC ANALYSIS AND IR/WV IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH            
DIGGING OVER THE WEST COAST...AND A RELATIVELY FLATTENED RIDGE                  
PARKED ACROSS THE MIDDLE CONUS.  HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE                   
CENTERED NE OF THE GEORGIAN BAY UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS                
HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH 500MB RIDGING WHOSE AXIS RUNS ALONG THE             
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND VERY DRY AIR ALOFT HAS ALLOWED FOR                 
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA.  THESE                 
CONDITIONS HAVE HELPED WIDESPREAD FOG TO FORM ALREADY...MOSTLY                  
CONFINED TO INLAND AREAS SOUTH OF M-32 AS NOTED BY OBS                          
(ACB...3/4SM....GOV....1/2SM...HTL...1/4SM) AND 11U-3.9U SATELLITE              
IMAGERY.  TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S             
AND MOST PLACES ARE AT OR BELOW THEIR CROSSOVER TEMPS WITH THE                  
EXCEPTION OF EASTERN UPPER.  WITH NO PRECIP IN THE PICTURE UNTIL                
SUNDAY MORNING...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE               
AROUND FOG HEADLINES THIS MORNING.                                              
FOG HEADLINES....NOT SURPRISINGLY...FOG HAS BEEN ON THE INCREASE                
THIS MORNING AS TEMPS COOL.  CURRENT OBS AND SATELLITE TRENDS                   
SUPPORT KEEPING THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY GOING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF                 
M-72.  THE QUESTION IS WHETHER FOG WILL BECOME THICK ENOUGH OVER                
NORTHERN LOWER NORTH OF THIS LINE TO WARRANT HEADLINES?  TEMPS HAVE             
FALLEN AT OR BELOW THE CROSSOVER TEMP FOR MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THIS            
AREA BUT FOG HAS NOT FORMED NEARLY AS QUICK AS THEIR COUNTERPARTS TO            
THE SOUTH (07Z GLR JUST WENT 1/4SM FG BUT IS ONLY SITE NORTH OF                 
M-72). WITH FURTHER COOLING TO TAKE PLACE THIS MORNING...EXPECT FOG             
TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...BUT AM RELUCTANT TO CHANGE HEADLINES                
UNTIL MORE EVIDENCE BECOMES APPARENT FROM THE OBS.  WILL HAVE TO                
KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.                          
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...ANOTHER FANTASTIC DAY ON TAP...ONCE THE            
FOG LIFTS THIS MORNING.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE AS NOTED BY THE 850-500MB            
RH 10 TO 20 PCT WILL PREVAIL WITH RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.             
THIS SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS HEIGHT RISES TAKE              
PLACE WITH THE 500MB RIDGE STRENGTHENING AS IT PASSES OVERHEAD.                 
ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF THIS MORNING...LINGERING MOISTURE BELOW THE              
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AS NOTED BY AN ACARS SOUNDING FROM APN                     
(DEWPOINT 9C AT 925MB) LATE LAST EVENING WILL PROMOTE FLAT CU BUILD             
UP ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH MIXING OF THE DRY AIR             
ABOVE...THIS CU WILL DIMINISH DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE                          
AFTERNOON...LEAVING MOST LOCATIONS MOSTLY SUNNY.  850MB TEMPS                   
INCREASE A DEGREE OR TWO...RANGING FROM 12-13C ACROSS NORTHERN                  
LOWER...TO 13-14C OVER EASTERN UPPER...SO WE WILL SEE HIGHS MOSTLY              
IN THE MIDDLE 70S.  THESE TEMPS...COMBINED WITH THE LIGHT WINDS WITH            
THE RIDGING...WILL PROMOTE LAKE BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON (950MB WINDS             
5-10KTS NORTHERN LOWER AND 10-15KTS EASTERN UPPER)...AND WILL KEEP              
AREAS NEAR THE LAKES A FEW DEGREES COOLER.                                      
MPC                                                                             
LATER PERIODS...UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE FROM THE                  
CENTRAL TO THE EASTERN LAKES...AS AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW GETS                  
CARVED OUT IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. QUIET WX LOOKS TO PREVAIL THRU               
SATURDAY...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST FOR              
THE TAIL END OF THE WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES FROM SAT NIGHT ONWARD               
ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGE.                                                         
MODELS...NAM IS RATHER FAST WITH THE COLD FRONT...NEARING LAKE MI BY            
SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS STILL HAS THE BOUNDARY ON THE OTHER SIDE OF             
WI. SREF STARTS SLOW BUT ALMOST CATCHES UP WITH THE NAM...NGM (FOR              
WHAT IT/S WORTH) IS ALSO FAST...CANADIAN IS SLOW. NAM/GFS BOTH                  
SHOWING GOOD CONSISTENCY. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE SLOW SIDE PER USUAL              
MODEL BIASES...BUT THAT STILL MEANS BRINGING IN RAIN FASTER THAN                
EARLIER FORECAST.                                                               
TONIGHT/SATURDAY...WX CONCERNS FAIRLY MINIMAL. ANOTHER CLEAR AND                
STILL NIGHT TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN FOG. BUT SHOULD NOT BE AS MUCH               
FOG AS THIS MORNING...AFTER ANOTHER DAY OF GOOD DIURNAL MIXING AND              
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL STAY               
TOWARD THE COOL END OF GUIDANCE TEMPS. MAY HAVE SOME CU/STRATOCU IN             
EASTERN UPPER MI SATURDAY...AS DEVELOPING SE SUB-900MB WINDS BRING              
IN SOME EXTRA MOISTURE OFF OF HURON. AND SOME CIRRUS WILL ARRIVE IN             
NORTHERN/WESTERN ZONES LATE. OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...WITH              
MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S...PERHAPS JUST TOUCHING 80 IN THE SOUTHERN                 
ZONES (LIKE TVC...WHICH WILL BENEFIT FROM A DOWNSLOPING SOUTH WIND).            
SATURDAY NIGHT...DEVELOPING 850MB LOW LEVEL JET WILL PUNCH FROM KS              
INTO WI. THIS WILL BRING AN 850MB THETA-E RIDGE EAST WITH                       
TIME...POKING INTO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES LATE. INCREASING              
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT A BAND OF SHOWERS (AND MAYBE AN               
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM) TRYING TO WORK ACROSS LAKE MI OVERNIGHT.                 
INSTABILITY PROGS FROM EVEN THE AGGRESSIVE NAM DO NOT SUPPORT                   
THUNDER THIS FAR EAST (ONLY 100-200 MUCAPE). BUT RAPID SATURATION OF            
THE MID AND LOW LEVELS AFTER 09Z MAY ALLOW SOME SHOWERS TO WORK IN              
FROM THE WEST. WILL HAVE A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIP AFTER 08Z FROM CAD            
TO DE TOUR AND WEST. OTHERWISE...MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THICKENING             
EVERYWHERE...WITH DRY AIR BELOW 700MB PRECLUDING PRECIP. WILL BE A              
RELATIVELY WARM NIGHT WITH CLOUDS AND NO DECOUPLING...MIN TEMPS                 
MAINLY UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.                                                  
SUNDAY...850MB THETA-E RIDGE WILL TAKE IT/S TIME WORKING INTO AND               
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FORCING/DYNAMICS ARE NOT ESPECIALLY                   
IMPRESSIVE...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DOES IT/S USUAL EARLY MORNING                 
DECAY...AND UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL ONLY APPROACH LAKE MI TOWARD               
EVENING (AS LONG AS THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS HOLD). EXPECT A WEAKENING              
BAND OF SHOWERS TO PRESS FURTHER EAST IN THE MORNING BEFORE                     
COMPLETELY FALLING APART. THEN IT FALLS TO HOW MUCH HEATING WE CAN              
SEE. WITH 850MB TEMPS +16/17C...MAX TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE NEAR 80 TO            
ALLOW SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO COOK OFF SOME STORMS. WE MIGHT               
GET THERE GIVEN THE EXPECTED MILD START TO THE DAY...BUT WITH A FAIR            
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER 80 IS PROBABLY THE TOP END. END RESULT...WILL             
HAVE A CHANCE OF SHRA MOST EVERYWHERE IN THE MORNING...AND ADD TSRA             
FOR THE AFTERNOON. WILL LEAVE PRECIP OUT NEAR SAGINAW BAY WHERE                 
SURFACE RIDGING AND LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL TRY TO HANG ON THE                   
LONGEST.                                                                        
REST OF THE FORECAST...WILL REMOVE THUNDER FROM EASTERN UPPER/NW                
LOWER MI MONDAY. COLD FRONT GOES THRU EARLY AND STRONG LOW LEVEL                
COLD ADVECTION IS WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD CORE ALOFT. WILL LEAVE                 
THUNDER IN NE LOWER...THOUGH CURRENT PREFERRED TIMING SUGGEST EARLY             
MORNING WILL BE THE BEST SHOT THERE. WILL TREND TEMPS DOWNWARD A BIT            
MORE MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY...AS MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN                
SHOWING A FAIRLY DRASTIC COLD SNAP FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. (NOTE THE             
POSSIBILITY OF ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE MT/ND                  
BORDER AREA. FOLKS...SUMMER IS ENDING.)                                         
ZOLTOWSKI                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10                
          AM...MIZ022-027>030-032>036-041-042.                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
1050 AM EDT FRI SEP 15 2006                                                     
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND PRECIP AFFECTING THE              
NORTHEAST COUNTIES...OUTER BANKS AND COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING.               
RUC AND 06Z GFS SHOWS LIGHT PRECIP POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY SO            
UPDATED ZONES TO INCLUDE 20 POPS IN THOSE AREAS. REMAINDER OF                   
FORECAST UNCHANGED.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...IFR AND MVFR CIGS CONTINUE OVER ERN 2/3 OF AREA THIS                
MORNING. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE MVFR/VFR THIS AFTN WITH                 
HEATING. IFR STRATUS LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT.                                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...MINOR UPDATE TO DROP SCA HEADLINE OREGON INLET TO OCRACOKE            
AND TO ADJUST WINDS TO NW TO NE THIS MORNING ALL ZONES. SECONDARY               
LOW PRES INDICATED OFF OF CAPE LOOKOUT AND WINDS HAVE COME AROUND TO            
NW TO NE ALL WATERS THIS MORNING...FCST LOOKS GOOD FOR THIS AFTN.               
SEAS DOWN TO 5 FT AT DIAMOND SO SCA WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.                      
&&                                                                              
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HSA/JBM                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA                        
245 PM PDT FRI SEP 15 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH UPPER AIR RUC40               
ANALYSIS NOW SHOWING THE TROF AXIS SHIFTING MORE INTO THE GREAT                 
BASIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH A CONTINUE PUSH OF COOLER AIR INTO THE                
DISTRICT. WHILE MOISTURE REMAIN VERY MINIMAL TODAY...UPPER AIR                  
ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT AN +80KT JET PUSHING INTO THE               
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA AND ALLOWING FOR BREEZY TO WINDY                  
CONDITIONS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS THE KERN DESERTS THIS             
EVENING. FURTHERMORE...WITH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS FROM SFO TO              
LAS WERE APPROACHING 16MB...LOWER ELEVATION WINDS COULD REACH THE               
15 TO 20 MPH RANGE THROUGH SUNSET. IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS...                  
CURRENT 24 HOUR TEMPERATURE CHANGE CHARTS CONTINUE TO SHOW AS MUCH              
AS 15 DEG-F OF COOLING FROM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...AS                 
WINDS SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES...WILL SEE OVERNIGHT             
TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR RECORD LOWS AND MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS                 
REACH DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH THE COOLER SPOT               
REACHING THE MID 40S. BY SATURDAY...WILL SEE A SLIGHT WARM UP AS                
500MB HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE BUT THE DISTRICT REMAINS UNDER A CYCLONIC             
FLOW. SO...WILL SEE A SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS RELAX TO LOWER                 
WINDS...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN COOL. LATEST FORECAST MODELS                 
CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SOLUTION OF SHIFTING THE              
TROF FARTHER EAST TOWARD SUNDAY AND ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO REBUILD OVER            
THE WEST COAST. RIDGING WILL BE MORE DOMINATE CLOSER TO SUNDAY AS               
BETTER WARMING WILL BEGIN. THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH             
THE SHORT TERM AND INTO THE LONG TERM AS CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE.                  
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS ARE STILL HAVE                
SOME DIFFICULTY HANDLING THE PATTERN AROUND MIDWEEK. THE PERIOD                 
BEGINS WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING SHIFTING EAST OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN             
WEST MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE PACNW. THIS                 
TROUGH THEN SLIDES EAST OVER WESTERN MONTANA ON TUESDAY BRINGING A              
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE DISTRICT. AT THE SAME TIME A WEAK             
UPPER LOW DRIFTS EAST ALONG 30N TOWARDS THE SOCAL COAST. THE MODELS             
THEN WANT TO PHASE THESE TWO SYSTEMS TOGETHER MIDWEEK RESULTING IN              
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST AND A STRONG UPPER RIDGE                
BUILDING OVER THE EPAC. THE GFS EVEN ENDS UP DEPICTING A CLASSIC                
REX BLOCK BY THURSDAY. BUT THE MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS HAVE A LITTLE              
MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH THE TROUGH INITIALLY AMPLIFYING OVER              
THE GREAT BASIN ON WEDNESDAY THEN SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST THROUGH                  
FRIDAY. THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE SOME COOLING NEXT WEEK BUT GIVEN                
THE FLUCTUATING MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE                 
WITH THIS TREND. HAVE SLIGHT COOLING EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY                  
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. ALL MODELS                  
ARE INDICATING LIMITED MOISTURE SO WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST GOING.              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.                     
FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO TAFS FOR KMCE...KFAT AND                 
KBFL AND TWEBS 421 AND 423.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL             
     8 PM PDT THIS EVENING.                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MOLINA/DCH                                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   ca                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA                        
945 AM PDT FRI SEP 15 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH UPPER AIR RUC40               
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE TROF AXIS WAS STILL OVER THE WEST COAST             
WITH COOLER AIR CONTINUING TO PUSH IN BEHIND IT. WHILE MOISTURE WAS             
LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM...MODELS SHOW A +80KT JET MAX PUSHING                  
INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR               
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS THE               
KERN DESERTS. FURTHERMORE...WITH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS FROM                
SFO TO LAS AT AROUND 11MB...MAY SEE LOWER ELEVATION WINDS REACHING              
10 TO 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS...CURRENT 24              
HOUR TEMPERATURE CHANGE CHARTS WERE SHOWING AS MUCH AS 15 DEG-F OF              
COOLING FROM YESTERDAY MORNING. AND...WITH TEMPERATURE PROFILERS                
SHOWING A DEEP COOL LAYER...IT WILL BE SLOW TO MIX OUT TO COOL AIR              
FOR AT LEAST 2 OR MAYBE 3 DAYS. THEREFORE...WILL SEE HIGHS OVER THE             
LOWER ELEVATIONS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 70S AND SOME MOUNTAIN                  
LOCATIONS REACHING INTO THE LOWER 60S. LATEST FORECAST MODELS REMAIN            
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHIFTING THE TROF FARTHER EAST ON                   
SATURDAY WHILE BEGINNING THE HEIGHT BUILDING PROCESS OVER THE WEST              
COAST. AS THIS OCCURS...THE WINDS WILL DROP OFF DRAMATICALLY                    
OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. RIDGING IS             
STILL PROGGED TO CONTINUE SUNDAY AND A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN.                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. FOR               
SPECIFIC DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO TAFS FOR KMCE...KFAT AND KBFL                
AND TWEBS 421 AND 423.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MOLINA                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ca                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
330 PM EDT FRI SEP 15 2006                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
18Z WATER VAPOR AND RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASINGLY               
AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. MOST PROMINENT FEATURE BEING            
THE LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON AND THE             
ASSOCIATED H5 TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE PACIFIC COAST AND                     
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THE AMPLIFICATION OF THIS TROUGH IS FORCING                
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI...OHIO AND TENNESSEE                  
VALLEY. OTHER FEATURES OF NOTE INCLUDE A WEAK H5 CLOSED LOW SPINNING            
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH DOWN THE               
EAST COAST TO OUR FORECAST AREA.                                                
AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT HAS STALLED TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE                 
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. BEHIND THE FRONT THE DRY AIR IS MAKING               
ITS PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. HIGH                   
PRESSURE NOW CENTERED OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WILL BE                
SETTLING SOUTHEAST TO PROVIDE A CALM...DRY...AND PLEASANT                       
MID-SEPTEMBER WEEKEND TO MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST.                                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.                                           
THIS EVENING...DESPITE THE VERY DRY AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE...DPVA                
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA THIS                  
AFTERNOON HAS PROVIDED JUST ENOUGH MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR AN                     
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO (ONLY JUST PASSED OVER THE OFFICE IN TLH)                
EARLY IN THE EVENING...OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR NEAR            
OR JUST AFTER SUNSET. DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW MOST                
INLAND LOCATIONS TO REACH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S FOR THE PANHANDLE            
AND BIG BEND AREAS. AL/GA ZONES MAY EVEN BE A BIT COOLER WITH LOWER             
TO MIDDLE 60S COMMON.                                                           
THE DEEP TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF             
THE CONUS WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE               
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING SEEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTY WILL              
BE FORCED EAST REACHING THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SUNDAY. AS THIS OCCURS            
THE TROUGHING ALONG THE EAST COAST COAST WILL BE PUSHED OFFSHORE.               
THE RESULT WILL BE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN BY THE END OF THE                 
WEEKEND WITH THE DEEP TROUGH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE                 
CENTRAL PLAINS AND A LARGE H5 RIDGE FROM THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN                
GOMEX UP THE EAST COAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES.                              
AS ALL THIS IS OCCURRING...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE             
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL BE SINKING SOUTH AND EAST. THE HIGH              
CENTER IS FORECAST TO REACH THE CAROLINAS BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN            
TRANSITION TO A POSITION NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY SUNDAY                     
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER OUR AREA MOVES OFF TO THE EAST             
THIS EVENING AND TAKES ANY LINGERING DYNAMICS/MOISTURE WITH IT. IN              
THIS TROUGHS WAKE...THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL SUPPLY PLENTY OF              
MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR INTO AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING. PLENTY OF                 
SUPPRESSION WILL EXIST WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AND ADVECTION OF DRY AIR            
TO KEEP POPS VERY LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. JUST THE OFF CHANCE OF A             
ISOLATED SHOWER ALONG THE SEABREEZE EACH AFTERNOON...BUT FEEL THE               
CHANCES/COVERAGE WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO EXCLUDE FROM POP MENTION IN              
THE FORECAST. THE MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND THEN            
EAST WILL BRING LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND            
EARLY SATURDAY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY             
MONDAY.                                                                         
WITH THIS RETURN FLOW FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST BETWEEN THE HIGH             
TO OUR EAST AND AN APPROACHING FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE                 
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE            
AND BOTH THE NAM/GFS AGREE ON QUITE A BIT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL                    
MOISTENING BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG WITH THE BEGINNING             
OF A HEIGHT FALLS TREND THAT BECOMES MORE IMPRESSIVE MONDAY NIGHT.              
THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS NEARBY TO THE            
WEST SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS            
MAINLY OUR WESTERN FLORIDA AND ALABAMA ZONES.                                   
.LONG TERM...MON NIGHT THROUGH THU.                                             
THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS EAST OFF THE GA COAST ON MONDAY...& A                   
GRADUALLY INFLUX OF MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE CWA WITH SOUTH FLOW.                
THEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE CWA ON                  
TUESDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS & TSTMS. CURRENT MODELS PUSH THE             
FRONT OUT OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS FLOW BECOME NW & A               
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WASH OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE             
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY                
ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND THEN REMAIN ACROSS             
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH            
OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT                  
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. THIS COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO              
CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LATER TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND              
WAVES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW CAUTION LEVELS THROUGH THE                    
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH MAY BE LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR THE COAST EACH                    
AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE FROM THE            
SOUTH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE                 
APPROACHING FRONT AND MAY APPROACH CAUTION LEVELS AT TIMES.                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WE ARE LOOKING FOR MVFR VSBY TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AFTER 06Z AT ABY             
AND VLD...THEN VFR CONDS THE REST OF TOMORROW WITH JUST SCT CU                  
EXPECTED.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A            
COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY. DRIER AIR AT             
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION CAUSING RELATIVE               
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE AFTERNOON TO DROP TO NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS ON             
SATURDAY. THERE IS A SOMEWHAT LESSER CHANCE FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS             
IN FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL THEN INCREASE NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF            
A FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  66 91 65 91 / 10 10 05 10                                          
PANAMA CITY  70 89 71 90 / 10 05 10 10                                          
DOTHAN       62 90 64 91 / 10 05 05 10                                          
ALBANY       64 91 65 91 / 05 05 05 10                                          
VALDOSTA     66 90 65 90 / 10 10 10 10                                          
CROSS CITY   68 90 68 90 / 10 10 10 10                                          
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...FIRE WX WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:             
CALHOUN...GADSDEN...HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...LEON...                  
LIBERTY...WAKULLA...AND WASHINGTON.                                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...MCNATT                                                               
PUBLIC...MROCZKA                                                                
LONG TERM...TREXLER                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
358 PM EDT FRI SEP 15 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FCST CONCERNS INCLUDE FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL AND ERN                
COUNTIES AND THEN PCPN CHANCES/TIMING THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH TSRA              
POTENTIAL.                                                                      
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS WITH            
A CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE PAC NW. DOWNSTREAM...A RDG                
EXTENDED FROM TX INTO THE GRT LAKES. AT THE SFC...A LOW WAS LOCATED             
OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS WITH A TROF EXTENDING THROUGH WRN NEBRASKA INTO            
THE TX PNDLE AND A FRONT FROM WRN ND INTO SE MANITOBA WHILE ANOTHER             
FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM WRN SD INTO SE WY AND CENTRAL CO. HIGH PRES              
PREVAILED OVER THE CNTRL GRT LAKES. A WAA SRLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED               
OVER UPR MICHIGAN TODAY IN BETWEEN THE LOW PRES OVER THE DAKOTAS AND            
THE HIGH PRES OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND              
PLEASANT TEMPS IN THE MID 70S HAVE PREVAILED OVER MUCH OF UPR MI                
THIS AFTERNOON.                                                                 
TONIGHT...MODELS INDICATE SRLY BOUNDARY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO                
OVERNIGHT TO 20 KT OVER WRN COUNTIES AHEDD OF SLOWLY APPROACHING                
FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE NRN PLAINS. THE ASSOCIATED MIXING FROM THE              
INCREASED WIND SHOULD PROHIBIT FOG FORMATION IN THE WEST. BASED ON              
WHAT HAPPENED LAST NIGHT...STILL HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT CENTRAL AND             
ERN COUNTIES COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AIDED BY SSE UPSLOPE FLOW AND            
MOISTURE INFLUX FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEWPOINTS                
QUITE MOIST OVER CENTRAL AND ERN COUNTIES (UPR 50S/LOW 60S) AND                 
GIVEN THAT WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER IN THE EVENING OVER THIS                       
AREA...HAVE ELECTED TO INCLUDE SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.                       
AREA.                                                                           
SAT...MDLS STILL INDICATE STRONG 850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG WITH            
THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK SHRTWVS/Q-VECT CONV IN THE SW FLOW MAY                   
SUPPORT SOME SHRA OR ISOLD TSTMS INTO MAINLY THE W THIRD OF UPR MI.             
KEPT IN ONLY LOWER END CHANCE POPS...GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH                     
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE THE SHRTWVS. SINCE THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR             
WILL REMAIN W OF UPR MI...STRONG OR SVR STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.                
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...THE NAM IS STILL SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH FRONTAL              
TIMING THAN THE GFS AND THE SLOWER UKMET. ALL MODELS SUGGEST                    
POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA CHCS TO SPREAD E ACROSS THE FCST AREA SAT               
NIGHT IN WAA PATTERN AT NOSE OF 40KT H8 LLJ. SCT SHRA/TSRA SHOULD               
ALSO DEVELOP SUN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MODELS NOT SHOWING A             
LOT IN WAY OF INSTABILITY ON SUN WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 700-800 J/KG             
IN SW COUNTIES OFF GFS. HOWEVER...THERE IS GOOD DEEP LYR SHEAR TO               
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IF CLOUDS THIN OUT                
ENOUGH TO BOOST DAYTIME INSTABILITY. BEHIND THE FRONT MUCH OF AREA              
SHOULD GET INTO A DRY SLOT SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING WHICH WILL                
RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR MAYBE A FEW ISOLD SHRA.              
ALONG THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...THERE COULD BE A BETTER CHC FOR SOME             
LAKE EFFECT SHRA IN WRLY FLOW.                                                  
MON AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE...MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT DRIVING             
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FCST AREA. FAIRLY COLD AIR            
BEHIND THE FRONT (H8 TEMPS LOWER TO AROUND -2 TO -3C) WILL BRING                
INCREASED CHCS FOR LAKE EFFECT OR LAKE ENHANCED RAIN LATE MON INTO              
TUE WITH THE GREATEST CHCS FOR COUNTIES BORDERING LAKE SUPERIOR.                
EXTENDED...THE GFS ECMWF CANADIAN AND DGEX ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT               
THROUGH 00Z WED. AT 12Z WED...THE GFS KEEPS A CLOSED 500MB LOW OVER             
EASTERN ONTARIO AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA.              
THE ECMWF BEGINS TO EJECT THE LOW INTO QUEBEC AND BUILDS A RIDGE                
AROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. BOTH MODELS SHOW A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM             
THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH WESTERN MT. DESPITE THE UPPER LEVEL                  
DIFFERENCES...BOTH MODELS SHOW A SFC RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US AND            
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS BY 12Z WED AND                  
REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH FRI.                                        
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MODELS AGREE THERE WILL BE NW FLOW ACROSS LAKE               
SUPERIOR AFTER THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GETS INTO QUEBEC 00Z TUE AND             
INTO NE CANADA 00Z THU...WITH THE ECMWF BEING SLIGHTLY MORE                     
PROGRESSIVE. GFS HAS 850 TEMPS DOWN TO -6C AND THE ECMWF GETS DOWN              
TO -4C 12Z TUE. NW WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE WILL BE 15-25 KT AROUND 12Z            
TUE. WITH LAKE TEMPS AROUND 15C OUR CWA HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF LAKE               
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS. WINDS DROP OFF FROM W TO E AFTER 00Z WED AND               
BEGIN TO BACK MORE WRLY...SO LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL MOST LIKELY               
CEASE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF BRINGS IN WARMER 850             
TEMPS AROUND +2C BY 00Z THU WHILE THE GFS KEEPS TEMPS AROUND -4C.               
EVEN THOUGH HPC IS FAVORING GFS...SURROUNDING OFFICES ARE TRENDING              
TOWARD ECMWF/CANADIAN DAYS 4 TO 7. KEPT CHC RW- THROUGH 00Z WED THEN            
TAPERED OFF INTO SCHC BY WED MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG THE LAKE                    
SUPERIOR SHORE.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
VOSS (TONIGHT THROUGH TUE)                                                      
MRE (EXTENDED WED-FRI)                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
328 PM EDT FRI SEP 15 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY                                              
12Z RAOBS/WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL                 
GREAT LAKES...BETWEEN A SMALL LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND A             
LARGE LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH               
PRESSURE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND SOUTHEAST ONTARIO...WITH AN                    
INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF             
THE NEXT LOW OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.                                          
THE WESTERN LOW WILL SHIFT INLAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY            
SATURDAY...CAUSING THE UPPER RIDGE TO FOLD DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE                
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY EDGE SOUTHEAST                  
TOWARD ERIE/ONTARIO THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. PERSISTENCE SEEMS TO BE THE             
KEY WORD FOR THE FORECAST TONIGHT. CU FIELD HAS MIXED OUT ACROSS THE            
THUMB AND SAGINAW VALLEY...BUT THICKER STRATUS HAS HELD FAST ACROSS             
THE SOUTHEAST CWA...GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-69 AND EAST OF US-23.                  
18Z/19Z TAMDAR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW NO BREAK IN THE LOW-LEVEL             
MOISTURE...WITH THE 18Z RUC FORECAST GETTING BETTER BUT THE 12Z                 
NAM/GFS MUCH TOO DRY. WILL CARRY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE                 
SOUTHEAST CWA THROUGH THE EVENING. WILL GO PARTLY CLOUDY FOR A                  
PERIOD OVERNIGHT...SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED LAST NIGHT...EVEN THOUGH            
THESE CLOUDS DO NOT LOOK TOO DIURNAL. AM CONCERNED THAT WE WE MAY               
SEE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS EITHER PERSIST OR REDEVELOP...LIMITING DENSE              
FOG POTENTIAL AGAIN TONIGHT. WILL CARRY AREAS OF DENSE FOG...AND SEE            
HOW THE CURRENT STATUS FIELD EVOLVES BEFORE CONSIDERING ANY FOG                 
ADVISORIES. DROPPED TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA WITH                  
BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL WITH CLEARING SKIES...AND KEPT             
LOWS IN THE MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT.               
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY...WITH A                
WEAK SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY PICKING UP BEHIND IT DURING THE DAY.               
19Z TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM ACROSS WISCONSIN ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID             
70S UNDER A HEALTHY CU FIELD. WILL DROP HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES AND              
INCREASE SKY COVER...AS ANY MORNING FOG/STATUS SHOULD LIFT AND MIX              
INTO SCT/BKN CU ONCE AGAIN.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY                                      
OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH AS MODELS ARE IN               
RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE BREAKDOWN OF THE TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE            
THAT WILL SET UP THIS WEEKEND. AS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW              
TOPS THE ROCKIES...A RATHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL SPIN UP WITH               
THE RESULTANT SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKES AREA              
ON SUNDAY/MONDAY.                                                               
THIS LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN LATE SUNDAY              
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS               
EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE. IN ADDITION...MODELS SUGGEST A SURFACE              
TROUGH WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT. THIS              
MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS BY SUNDAY EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN               
THE MIDNIGHT SHIFTS ADJUSTMENT FOR THIS EARLIER TIMING THROUGH THE              
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.                                                     
AFTER THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA ON MONDAY...THE COLDEST AIR OF             
THE UPCOMING FALL SEASON WILL FILTER ACROSS THE AREA ON WEST WINDS.             
SUB ZERO H85 TEMPERATURES WILL REACH LAKE MICHIGAN AND THEN MODERATE            
AS THE AIR TRAVERSES THE LAKE INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS WILL BE                 
PLENTY COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS/SHOWERS AND WILL MAINTAIN             
THE DREARY/SHOWERY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT ON INTO                 
WEDNESDAY. THE TREND DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE FOR SHOWERS TO                  
BECOME MORE SPARSE ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA AND WILL KEEP             
THIS IN THE FORECAST. REALLY THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE PRECIPITATION               
FORECAST WAS TO EXTEND THE "LULL" ON MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE                  
EVENING AS IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS TO                
MOVE INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND ITS ATTENDING              
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.                                                          
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY...AND THEN                 
PERHAPS THE LOWER 70S ON MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE             
AREA. THEREAFTER...HIGHS WILL ONLY EDGE INTO THE LOWER 60S AT BEST              
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT MODERATION TO THE MID 60S             
ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY. FROM MONDAY NIGHT ON THROUGH THE REST OF THE                
WEEK...LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE 40S FOR THE MOST PART. MOSTLY CLOUDY              
SKIES AND A PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW MODERATED BY LAKE MICHIGAN WILL            
HELP STAVE OFF ANY WIDESPREAD 30S. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO               
THE TEMPERATURES.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 136 PM EDT FRI SEP 15 2006                            
AVIATION...                                                                     
FOG LAYER STATUS ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY MIX             
OUT...WHILE DEEPER LAYER STATUS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA AND                 
SOUTHERN ONTARIO CONTINUES TO HOLD FAST. MBS HAS CLEARED OUT AND                
SHOULD ONLY SEE SCT/BKN CU FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. FNT IS ON THE               
LINE BETWEEN SCATTERED/MIXED CU AND THE SOLID DECK TO THE EAST...AND            
WILL CARRY PREDOMINATE MVFR CIGS INTO EARLY EVENING. DTW/DET ARE                
WELL INTO THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE APPARENT ON 16Z/17Z TAMDAR              
SOUNDINGS. 16Z RUC INITIALIZATION IS BETTER THAN EARLIER RUNS WITH              
THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT IS STILL ON THE DRY SIDE. AM CONCERNED             
THAT THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE                 
NIGHT. WILL CARRY MVFR CIGS AT DTW/DET THROUGH LATE EVENING BEFORE              
SCATTERING OUT...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. AS WELL AS WITH LAST                    
NIGHT...WILL BRING IN AN MVFR/BORDERLINE IFR DECK LATE NIGHT...WITH             
MINIMAL FOG RESTRICTION AT DTW/DET. VISIBILITIES WILL BE LOWER AT               
FNT/MBS WITH LESS STATUS POTENTIAL TO INHIBIT FOG FORMATION. GIVEN              
SIMILAR FOG DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM THIS MORNING AND WITH CONDENSATION             
PRESSURE DEFICITS OF ONLY A FEW MB ACROSS THE CWA BY 12Z TONIGHT...             
WILL HIT IFR/LIFR FOG AGAIN FOR A PERIOD AT FNT/MBS.                            
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...BRAVENDER                                                          
LONG TERM....DG                                                                 
AVIATION...BRAVENDER                                                            
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
136 PM EDT FRI SEP 15 2006                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOG LAYER STATUS ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY MIX             
OUT...WHILE DEEPER LAYER STATUS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA AND                 
SOUTHERN ONTARIO CONTINUES TO HOLD FAST. MBS HAS CLEARED OUT AND                
SHOULD ONLY SEE SCT/BKN CU FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. FNT IS ON THE               
LINE BETWEEN SCATTERED/MIXED CU AND THE SOLID DECK TO THE EAST...AND            
WILL CARRY PREDOMINATE MVFR CIGS INTO EARLY EVENING. DTW/DET ARE                
WELL INTO THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE APPARENT ON 16Z/17Z TAMDAR              
SOUNDINGS. 16Z RUC INITIALIZATION IS BETTER THAN EARLIER RUNS WITH              
THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT IS STILL ON THE DRY SIDE. AM CONCERNED             
THAT THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE                 
NIGHT. WILL CARRY MVFR CIGS AT DTW/DET THROUGH LATE EVENING BEFORE              
SCATTERING OUT...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. AS WELL AS WITH LAST                    
NIGHT...WILL BRING IN AN MVFR/BORDERLINE IFR DECK LATE NIGHT...WITH             
MINIMAL FOG RESTRICTION AT DTW/DET. VISIBILITIES WILL BE LOWER AT               
FNT/MBS WITH LESS STATUS POTENTIAL TO INHIBIT FOG FORMATION. GIVEN              
SIMILAR FOG DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM THIS MORNING AND WITH CONDENSATION             
PRESSURE DEFICITS OF ONLY A FEW MB ACROSS THE CWA BY 12Z TONIGHT...             
WILL HIT IFR/LIFR FOG AGAIN FOR A PERIOD AT FNT/MBS.                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1022 AM EDT FRI SEP 15 2006                           
UPDATE...                                                                       
VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...ENOUGH TO             
DROP THE FOG ADVISORY. ONLY LINGERING CONCERN IS ACROSS THE SAGINAW             
VALLEY. MBS HAS RECENTLY CLIMBED TO MVFR FOG...AN HOUR OR SO BEHIND             
HYX. THERE WILL BE SOME FOG LINGERING BETWEEN MBS AND MOP/AMN WHICH             
ARE STILL 1/4SM OR LESS...BUT A TIMING TO THIS EDGE SHOWS A SLOW AND            
STEADY WESTWARD PROGRESS. OTHERWISE VIS SATELLITE SHOWS THE MVFR                
STATUS THAT HELPED DISSIPATE THE FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA IS                  
HOLDING FAST. EXPECT THAT ANY THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS WILL FILL IN             
SOON WITH CU...AND THAT THE STATUS ITSELF WILL TAKE ON A MORE                   
CELLULAR/DIURNAL LOOK. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A POOR HANDLE ON THE             
AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH 14Z TAMDAR                
SOUNDINGS OUT OF DTW NEARLY SATURATED BELOW 900MB...WHILE THE 14Z               
RUC INITIALIZATION SHOWS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF UP TO 7C IN THE                
SAME LAYER. NOT TOO MUCH DRY AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED...WITH CLOUD                
EROSION THROUGH MIXING INTO THE MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. WILL INCREASE             
SKY COVER...CARRYING MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE BULK OF THE                      
DAY...ONLY CLOUDS ONLY BEGINNING TO MIX OUT BY LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN            
THE EXPECTED DIURNAL TRANSITION FROM STATUS TO CU...CLOUDS SHOULD               
DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH SUNSET LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AFTER              
00Z. WILL ALSO DROP HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES GIVEN LIMITED               
INSOLATION.                                                                     
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 750 AM EDT FRI SEP 15 2006                             
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT                                                  
SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER HEAD TODAY AND TONIGHT.               
FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE FOG AND CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING.  LARGE               
SHIELD OF LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN WORKING BACK AROUND UPPER LOW SYSTEM             
OVER PENNSYLVANIA INTO THE EASTERN THUMB AND IS CONTINUING TO SPREAD            
SOUTH AND WESTWARD UNDER INVERSION.  THIS IS ALSO BEING HELPED BY               
WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDING BACK WEST INTO THUMB. GFS SEEMS TO             
HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS LOOKING AT THE 925-950MB MOISTURE                  
FIELD. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY MAKE IT NO FURTHER WEST THEN                      
US23/US23/I75 LINE.                                                             
WILL CONTINUE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 14Z AS MOST OBSERVATIONS             
SHOWING VISIBILITIES 1/4 MILE OR LESS...EXCEPTIONS HAVE BEEN MOST OF            
WAYNE COUNTY WHERE URBAN HEAT ISLAND AFFECT SEEMS TO HAVE KEPT DEW              
POINT SPREAD APART FAR ENOUGH TO LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT SO FAR AND               
EASTERN MACOMB COUNTY WHERE CLOUD COVER HAS PREVENT DECENT                      
RADIATIONAL COOLING.  STILL SEVERAL HOURS TO GO BEFORE SUNRISE SO DO            
EXPECT SOME DEGREE OF FOG TO DEVELOP IN THESE AREAS BUT MORE OF                 
PATCHY DENSE FOG THEN WIDESPREAD.                                               
FOG AND CLOUDS WILL MIX AND DISSIPATE OUT BY NOON.  MODEL SOUNDINGS             
SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN                   
PORTIONS OF CWA TO GENERATE SCT-BKN CU THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL CARRY             
PARTLY CLOUDY THOSE AREAS AND MOSTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE.                           
SHOULD HAVE CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH OUT ANY LOW LEVEL CLOUD                    
INTRUSION LIKE OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AGAIN                
TONIGHT SO WILL CARRY AREAS OF FOG.  NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DENSE             
FOG BUT WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHY DENSE FOG.                                       
WILL GO WITH WARMER GFS NUMBERS AS MET GUIDANCE UNDER DID YESTERDAYS            
HIGHS AND SEEMS A BIT LOW FOR TODAY.                                            
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY                                           
A BRIEF WARM UP THEN AUTUMN CONDITIONS SETTLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES              
FOR NEXT WEEK (BUT NOT AS EMPHATIC PER THE GFS).                                
LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT IS UNDERWAY WITH DEEP AND COLD TROUGH                 
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND                   
SURFACE LEE-CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.  IN TURN THE               
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY WITH STRENGTHENING SURFACE                
HIGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND TENNESSEE VALLEY THAT WILL REMAIN IN                
PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY.  MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH OCCLUDED FRONT              
IN THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.  THE                       
NMM/CANADIAN SUGGEST 500MB WAVE ON THE ENTRANCE SIDE OF THE JET WILL            
AMPLIFY AND TRACK INTO THE STATE LATE SUNDAY BUT CONSENSUS FROM THE             
GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST HOLDING OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT GIVEN STRENGTH OF              
UPSTREAM TROUGH AND TRENDS SUGGEST A LITTLE SLOWER PROGRESS.                    
THIS CONTINUES WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY                 
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND WE WILL RAISE POPS A LITTLE MORE.                 
DEEP THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG WITH 30-40KTS LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORTS               
THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES AND WITH ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS TO AID IN            
ADDITIONAL LIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR            
WITH THE OFFICIAL START TO AUTUMN THIS WEEKEND.                                 
NOT TO WORRY AS THE CALENDAR WILL CATCH UP QUICKLY EARLY NEXT WEEK              
WITH FROPA EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND COLD ADVECTION TO                   
PERUSE.  THE GFS SEEMS TO BE OVERDEVELOPED WITH THE CLOSED 500MB LOW            
AND WE PREFER THE MORE OPEN NATURE SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF/CANADIAN.               
THIS SHOULD KEEP THOSE NEGATIVE 850MB TEMPS A BIT IN CHECK (FOR NOW)            
ACROSS THE STATE BUT NEVERTHELESS LOWER SINGLE DIGIT READINGS                   
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PROVIDE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS             
THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME LAKE                 
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.                                         
THEN FOLLOWING THE ECMWF/CANADIAN IDEA OF BUILDING HEIGHTS AND                  
SURFACE PRESSURES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE NORTHERN                
PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  HOWEVER...THIS              
WILL NOT BE A CLEAN FORECAST AS INDICATIONS ARE WE QUICKLY                      
TRANSITION INTO A ZONAL FLOW WITH A FURTHER SOUTH POSITION OF THE               
MAIN UPPER JET.  LIKELY SEE MORE CLOUDS BUT WILL REFRAIN FROM THE               
MENTION OF PRECIP AT THIS TIME.  SUMMER IS INDEED COMING TO AN END.             
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION.....BRAVENDER                                                          
UPDATE.......BRAVENDER                                                          
SHORT TERM...DRC                                                                
LONG TERM....BGM                                                                
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE                                            
222 PM CDT FRI SEP 15 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. PRIMARY FORECAST               
CONCERN WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE                     
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OVER FAR                  
EASTERN ZONES TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE             
TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS               
DEPICTING A 90 TO 100 KT JET LEVEL SPEED MAX OVER THE DESERT                    
SOUTHWEST. FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET IS LOCATED OVER                
NEBRASKA. A 994 MB SFC LOW IS POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS               
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A 1020MB HIGH SITUATED OVER SOUTHEAST                 
MISSOURI. THE SUBSEQUENT TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE PLAINS...           
AND AMPLE MIXING UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HAS DRIVEN                
SOUTH WINDS UP INTO THE 20 TO 30MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.  THE STRONG           
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS ALSO HELPED TO DRIVE DEWPOINTS OUT OF THE LOWER              
50S THIS MORNING TO AROUND 60 THIS AFTERNOON.                                   
THE INITIAL CONCERN FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING              
REVOLVES AROUND THE POSSIBILITY OF SFC BASED CONVECTION ACROSS OUR              
WESTERN CWA.  SFC HEATING UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...ALONG WITH                 
ENHANCED SFC CONVERGENCE ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IS NOW RESULTING             
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CUMULUS FIELD EXTENDING FROM MCK TO LBF TO              
TIF.  THIS AREA OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST INTO             
OUR CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING ACTING AS A FOCAL                 
POINT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE RUC AND GFS ARE STILL                     
FORECASTING HIGH CIN VALUES FOR THIS EVENING WHICH WOULD MAKE SFC               
BASED CONVECTION MORE DIFFICULT TO ACHIEVE.  THE NAM WOULD BE MORE              
SUPPORTIVE OF SEEING A FEW SFC BASED STORMS.  OVERALL FEELING IS                
THAT MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL                  
REMAIN ELEVATED ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES...MAKING              
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR            
OF CLOSE TO 40KTS WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500 J/KG WILL SUPPORT THE              
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONG 50 TO 60KT LOW LEVEL              
JET WILL CONTINUE TO FEED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER DARK WITH STORMS                  
TRACKING NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR CWA.                                              
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT OUR CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH                   
DECREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST BY DAYBREAK.  A PREFRONTAL                  
SFC TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BOTH TRACK ACROSS OUR CWA DURING THE             
DAY ON SATURDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL STILL RISE INTO THE 80S AS THE              
COLD AIR WILL TAKE A WHILE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION.  SEVERE                   
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP ALONG THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH                 
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE                   
TROUGH IS EAST OF OUR CWA OR JUST EXITING OUR EASTERN MOST                      
COUNTIES.  SFC COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW BEHIND THE INITIAL                
TROUGH WITH EVERYTHING THROUGH OUR CWA BY TOMORROW EVENING.  GIVEN              
THIS TIMING...MOST OF OUR CWA WILL REMAIN DRY ON SATURDAY WITH JUST             
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR FAR EASTERN CWA.  ANY                 
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG OUR EASTERN CWA FROM YORK TO                   
HEBRON WILL STAND THE CHANCE OF BECOMING SEVERE THANKS TO STRONG                
WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY. NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR THEN                 
FILTERS INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN                
MAKING FOR A DRY BUT COOL DAY.                                                  
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED              
PERIOD WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OF LOW                   
PRESSURE WHICH WILL HAVE JUST PASSED TO OUR EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.                  
HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...BUT THE                
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN RATHER COOL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.  READINGS                 
MODERATE JUST SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY...THEN MODELS DIVERGE IN HANDLING             
OF PATTERN FROM MID WEEK ON.  THE 06Z GFS SUGGESTED NEXT CLOSED LOW             
WILL SLIP SOUTHEAST THRU OUR CWA TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY BRINGING            
ANOTHER CHANCE OF PCPN.  THE 12Z GFS TAKES PART OF THIS NEXT PIECE              
OF ENERGY TO OUR NORTH...BUT STILL DIGS A TROUGH OVER THE                       
ROCKIES...THEN SWINGS A WEAKER TROUGH THRU THURS NIGHT OR                       
FRIDAY...WITH MAIN PCPN SETTING UP TO OUR SOUTH.  THE ECMWF ALSO                
SUGGESTS A TROUGH OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT MAIN DEEPER CLOSED LOW               
REMAINING TO OUR NORTH.  THE 12Z GFS IS MORE SIMILAR TO THE                     
ECMWF...AND THE CANADIAN FALLS IN BETWEEN THIS.  GIVEN THE                      
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM...HAVE LEFT             
THE EXTENDED FORECAST DRY.  TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL GENERALLY BE              
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WESELY                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ne                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ                                         
425 PM EDT FRI SEP 15 2006                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE A LITTLE LONGER, AND                        
UNFORTUNATELY FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND. THIS IS ALL COURTESY OF             
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY EXIT                
STAGE RIGHT-ISH (SOUTHEAST) DURING SATURDAY. THIS WILL SET UP FOR A             
NICE FINISH TO THE WEEKEND AS WARMER AIR IS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO              
THE REGION, PARTICULARLY FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD                
FRONT THOUGH IS SCHEDULED TO CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A            
SHOT OF MUCH COOLER AIR. THE COOLER AIR WILL LAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS              
NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BEGINS TO SETTLE TO               
THE EAST ON FRIDAY, THE AIRMASS SHOULD MODIFY SOME.                             
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...                                                         
I APOLOGIZE FOR THE LATENESS OF THIS DISCUSSION. A RATHER COMPLEX               
SCENARIO UNFOLDED TODAY ACROSS OCEAN AND MONMOUTH COUNTIES IN NEW               
JERSEY, WITH OCEAN COUNTY BEING HIT VERY HARD. A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW,            
SOME SORT OF INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH, A SURGE OF THETA-E AND A SHORT            
WAVE RIDING AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW, HELPED TO FOCUS              
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IN THE ABOVE AREAS. A SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLIER              
THIS MORNING INDICATED THE PRESENT OF A MESO-LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN              
NEW JERSEY WHICH MIGHT HAVE SPUN NORTHBOUND INTO THE OCEAN COUNTY               
AREA. THE KDIX 88D VELOCITY DATA SHOWED SOME SORT OF A BOUNDARY                 
ACROSS EASTERN NEW JERSEY WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE. THE VELOCITY HAD             
A 'S-SHAPE' TO IT INDICATING SOME WAA AS WELL. ALL OF THIS COMBINED,            
APPEARED TO BE THE CAUSE OF THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THE MILLION                 
DOLLAR QUESTION FOR TONIGHT IS WHAT WILL THE EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION            
BE.                                                                             
AS FOR SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY DEEPER AND               
MORE CLOSED OFF THAN THE GFS WITH THE MIDLEVEL VORTEX AND LESS                  
PROGRESSIVE. SURFACE DIFFERENCES ARE ESPECIALLY PRONOUNCED WITH THE             
NAM DEEPER AND MUCH FARTHER WEST WITH THE MAIN SURFACE LOW OVER THE             
ATLANTIC, WITH A MORE ORGANIZED CIRCULATION. IT WAS DECIDED TO LEAN             
MORE TOWARD THE GFS, ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE RUC EARLIER HAD            
THE BULLSEYE OF RAIN IN THE CORRECT LOCATION. THE 00Z/15 ECMWF,                 
09Z/15 SREF MEAN, AND THE 12Z/15 CANADIAN REGIONAL MODEL ALL SHOW               
PRONOUNCED SURFACE RIDGING EAST OF THE NEW JERSEY COAST IN 36 HOURS             
LIKE THE GFS. FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS NOW, THE NAM SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN              
BIASED TOWARD ITS SLOWER, DEVELOPED SOLUTION.                                   
AS A RESULT, WE WILL RUN WITH LIKELY POPS UP NORTH ALONG WITH AN                
ISOLATED THUNDER THIS EVENING AS ACTIVITY APPROACHING NYC WORKS                 
WESTWARD THIS EVENING. WE THEN TAPERED THE POPS THROUGH CHC CATEGORY            
SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING BUT MOVED THE ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION TO                
COVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA. SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE OCCURRING              
LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND MOVING INTO FAR              
SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THEREFORE WITH THE UPPER-LOW OVERHEAD,               
ANY ADDED SUNSHINE MAY POP A THUNDERSTORM. IT APPEARS THEY WILL NOT             
GET ROBUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE HAIL, PROBABLY JUST HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.             
EVEN WITH THE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OCCURRING LATE THIS AFTERNOON, WE            
THINK CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE MOSTLY CLOUDY CATEGORY.           
WITH THE MOISTURE AROUND OVERNIGHT, DECIDED TO ADD IN AREAS OF FOG              
ACROSS THE AREAS THAT SAW THE HEAVIER RAIN, AND WENT WITH PATCHY FOG            
ELSEWHERE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET                
GUIDANCE.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                        
THIS TIME FRAME STARTS OUT RATHER TRICKY AS THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW                
WILL BE EASING SOUTHEASTWARD DURING SATURDAY. THE MODELS OVERALL                
AGREE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW SATURDAY, HOWEVER SOME OF               
THE DETAILS ARE A BIT UNCERTAIN. GIVEN THE SLOW NATURE OF THIS                  
SYSTEM, WE WILL NOT RUSH THE LIFTING OUT OF IT. WENT WITH A LOW CHC             
POP FOR MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION AS THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BE            
DRIFTING SOUTHWARD SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE DELMARVA. THIS WILL                
ALLOW THE WINDS TO SHIFT MORE TO THE NORTH, LIMITING THE INFLOW                 
MOISTURE AND WEAKENING FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. AM ENVISIONING SOME               
LINGERING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS POCKETS OF DRIZZLE SATURDAY MORNING,              
BUT AS THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY STARTS TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE DURING THE            
AFTERNOON, SOME MIDLEVEL RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.               
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME DRYING OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY                  
SATURDAY, WITH CLOUD BASES RISING. THEREFORE WE WILL TREND TO AT                
LEAST INDICATE SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.            
CONFIDENCE IN THE CLOUD COVER FOR SATURDAY IS NOT TO HIGH, BUT THERE            
APPEARS TO BE SOME SUNSHINE IN THE PICTURE.                                     
GRADUALLY RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION WITH A WARMING TREND               
ON SUNDAY. THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH                
BETTER. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES OVER DURING THE COURSE OF SUNDAY               
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY, ALLOWING WAA TO OCCUR/CONTINUE. THIS WILL                 
BOOST DAYTIME TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S FOR MANY LOCALES. THE                   
IMPROVED WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST TOO LONG AS MODEL GUIDANCE             
HITTING THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE FAIRLY WELL. THIS COLD FRONT IS                
FORECAST TO BE LOCATED IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO OHIO VALLEY                
MONDAY. MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD START OUT MONDAY WITH A GOOD                  
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE, BUT GRADUALLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS                      
ANTICIPATED, PARTICULARLY MONDAY NIGHT AS WAA INCREASES AND THE                 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARS THE WESTERN ZONES LATE.                                  
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE                  
ALTHOUGH THEY WERE NOTED TO NOT BE TO DIFFERENT FOR MOST AREAS.                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                          
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MOSTLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS              
FOR LOCAL EFFECTS AND TIMING. THE 06Z GFS, WHILE SIMILAR THROUGH                
TUESDAY, BEGINS TO DIFFER QUITE A BIT FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF            
AND EVEN THE GFS/ECMWF MEANS WHICH ARE SIMILAR. THE 06Z GFS TAKES               
THE PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE THAT THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND CANADIAN                
BRING TOWARD THE LOWER NORTHERN PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,             
MUCH FARTHER SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI                 
VALLEY, MEANWHILE UPSTREAM ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS TAKEN                
DEEP INTO OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS SOLUTION                 
RESULTS IN A FULLY PHASED FULL LATITUDE TROUGH FROM LABRADOR TO                 
TEXAS. THIS SCENARIO IS ENTIRELY DIFFERENT FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS             
AND ECMWF AND ALSO THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.                                   
PER HPC DISCUSSIONS, TELECONNECTIONS BASED ON A STRONG POSITIVE                 
ANOMALY NEAR 70 NORTH/95 WEST DOES NOT YIELD MUCH OF A WESTERN U.S.             
TROUGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER, WHEN THE TIME BASIS IS                   
ADJUSTED FORWARD A MONTH TO MID OCTOBER, A NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY              
AND TROUGH DOES APPEAR OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH THE CONSISTENT                
OVERALL TREND OF LOWER HEIGHTS AND SOUTHWARD DISPLACED WESTERLIES               
OVER NORTH AMERICA, IT APPEARS TO BE MORE LIKE MID TO LATE OCTOBER              
THEN MID SEPTEMBER. THE ENSEMBLES ARE BETTER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY,              
WHICH SHOWED VERY LOW CONFIDENCE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. PUTTING THE              
TROUGH MORE IN DOUBT. TODAYS ENSEMBLES INDICATE MORE TROUGHING AND              
HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAN YESTERDAY'S RUNS.                                        
BASED ON GUIDANCE FROM HPC, WHICH USED A ECMWF/NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN               
BLEND, A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CWA FROM WEST TO               
EAST DURING TUESDAY. THIS FRONT MAY ACTUALLY WIND UP WHIPPING RIGHT             
THROUGH THE REGION AS UPSTAIRS A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH            
MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST (MIDLEVEL WINDS AROUND 50 KNOTS). WHILE THE            
MAIN SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO PASS WELL TO OUR NORTH INTO                     
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA, SOME GOOD LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND PVA ARE                
FORECAST TO ARRIVE WITH THE FRONT. ALSO, A SURGE OF THETA-E IS                  
EVIDENT PRIOR TO THE FRONT. THIS FRONT MAY ACTUALLY JUST PRODUCE A              
FAIRLY NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS (CONVECTION?) WITH LITTLE                         
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING WELL AHEAD OF IT. A POSSIBLE FLY IN THE                 
OINTMENT THOUGH COULD BE IF THE CANADIAN SOLUTION IS CORRECT AS IT              
DEVELOPS A SURFACE WAVE TO OUR SOUTH AND THE MOISTURE THEN RIDES                
NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH             
ONLY THE HINT OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING LATE TUESDAY IN NORTH            
CAROLINA.                                                                       
FOR NOW, WE BROUGHT IN LOW CHC POPS MONDAY EVENING ACROSS THE                   
SOUTHERN POCONOS AS WAA MAY TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS. WE THEN INCREASED             
POPS FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WITH HIGH CHC POPS            
FOR TUESDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. BUFKIT FORECAST                    
SOUNDINGS DO NOT REALLY INDICATE MUCH IF ANY SURFACE BASED CAPE,                
HOWEVER SOME ELEVATED CAPE COULD BE POSSIBLE. IF THE SHOWERS DO                 
ARRIVE EARLY ENOUGH, THAT WILL LIMIT THE SURFACE HEATING AND REDUCE             
ANY THUNDER CHCS. FOR NOW, WE INCLUDED SOME THUNDER FROM ABOUT                  
PHILADELPHIA ON SOUTHWARD. BASED ON UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING             
OF THE FRONT CLEARING THE REGION, WE HELD ONTO LOW CHC POPS FOR THE             
FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY NIGHT.                                                    
MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DRY ON WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER WITH MUCH COOLER AIR             
ADVECTING IN ALOFT COUPLED WITH CYCLONIC FLOW, THERE COULD BE A                 
SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES. FOR THIS REASON, WE PLACED            
A SLIGHT CHC POP IN THE GRIDS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY                 
EVENING. IT MAY BE BREEZY AT TIMES WEDNESDAY AS CAA OCCURS (850 MB              
TEMPERATURES DROP TO AROUND +2C WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) UNDER A                    
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS A SURFACE              
HIGH SITUATES ITSELF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC, HOWEVER A DEVELOPING                
WARM FRONT IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL EVENTUALLY GET SOME WAA GOING                
ALOFT. THE GFS SHOWS SOME MOISTURE STREAMING OUR WAY FRIDAY                     
AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS MAY BE OVERDONE, PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH MODEL            
TRENDS, THEREFORE ONLY WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHC IN THE GRIDS FRIDAY               
AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTHWEST ZONES.                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS WHICH DOMINATED THE AREA THIS MORNING ARE                        
SLOWLY IMPROVING AS THE PRIMARY AREA OF HEAVY RAIN AND A FEW                    
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE NEW JERSEY COAST            
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE                 
DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH LOWERING CEILINGS AFTER SUNSET. SOME VSBY                   
RESTRICTIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH                  
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND FOG. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO             
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY, BUT THEN CONDITIONS WILL                 
IMPROVE ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE MID              
ATLANTIC COAST.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
SCA HEADLINES REMAIN WHERE THEY WERE. SEAS ARE IN THE 4 FOOT RANGE              
THIS FRI AFTERNOON, SANDWICHED BETWEEN 5 FOOT + NORTH AND SOUTH OF              
PHI'S FORECAST TERRITORY, THANKS TO OUR LOCATION RELATIVE TO THE                
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS.  AS THE FETCH                     
INCREASES DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, SO WILL THE SEAS TO THE 5             
TO 6 FOOT RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES AWAY,            
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.                                     
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
OCEAN COUNTY, NEW JERSEY GOT PUMMELED TODAY WITH TORRENTIAL                     
RAINFALL. KDIX-88D STORM TOTAL ESTIMATES OF 6 TO 8 INCHES IN CENTRAL            
AND SOUTHERN OCEAN COUNTY. THE RADAR WAS GREATLY UNDERESTIMATING THE            
RAINFALL, AND A COMPARISON WITH THE SIDE-BY-SIDE RUNNING OF THE                 
TROPICAL Z/R POINTED IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION. THEREFORE, WE CHANGED              
THE Z/R RELATIONSHIP INTO THE CONVECTION MODE EARLY THIS MORNING.               
THIS IMPROVED THE RAINFALL ESTIMATES. WE RECEIVED SOME GROUND TRUTH             
WITH 8.82 INCHES OF RAIN IN BAYVILLE AND 8.00 INCHES ON LONG BEACH              
ISLAND. THIS TORRENTIAL RAINFALL LEAD TO MAJOR FLASH FLOODING IN                
PARTS OF OCEAN COUNTY.                                                          
THE EXCESSIVE RAIN THAT WE SAW TODAY SHOULD NOT OCCUR TONIGHT INTO              
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW SLOWLY SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD AND THE            
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES FARTHER AWAY. HOWEVER ANOTHER INCH OF              
RAIN IS QUITE POSSIBLE IN SOME NORTHERN AREAS AS REMAINING                      
PRECIPITATION PIVOTS AROUND THE SOUTHEASTWARD DRIFTING UPPER-LEVEL              
LOW.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
PA...NONE.                                                                      
NJ...NONE.                                                                      
MD...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ450>455 FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY             
         UNTIL 1 AM SUNDAY.                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/NEAR TERM/SHORT TERM...GORSE                                           
LONG TERM...GORSE/HPC                                                           
AVIATION/MARINE...MIKETTA                                                       
HYDROLOGY...GORSE                                                               
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