FXUS04 KWBC 161839
QPFPFD
 
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
237 PM EDT THU SEP 16 2004
 
PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 17/0000 UTC THRU SEP 18/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
 

...PRELIM DAY 1...

...SYNOPSIS...
HUR IVAN WL BE THE MAIN WX FEATR THIS PD AS HE CONTS TO LIFT
NNEWD AND EVENTUALLY ENE BY THE END OF THE PD. WHILE THIS
HAPPENS...MDLS SUGGEST SLOWG THE FORWARD PROGRESS. THIS
SLOWG COMPLICATES THE FCST SITU ACRS THE REGION AND INCRS
THE THREAT FOR NOCTURNAL CNVCTV BLOWUPS. A ZONE OF FAST
MIDLVL WRLYS WL REMAIN ALNG ACRS THE NRN U.S. STS THRU THE PD
WITH A STG SERIES OF SHRTWVS DIGG INTO THE PAC NW AND CARVG
OUT A DEEP TROF.

...ERN U.S....
QPF OVR THE REGION WL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF IVAN.
QPF CONFIDENCE DCRS BEYOND 12 HRS AS THE PSTN OF IVAN IS VRY
UNSURE. VRY DEEP MSTR...PWS AOA 2.50 INCHES...ASSOCD WITH IVAN
CONTS TO FUEL XCSV RNFL THIS AFTN ALNG THE NERN/ERN SIDE OF THE
SYS AND IS XPCD TO ONLY SLOLY DECRS THRU THE PD AS THE INFLOW
OFF THE GULF/ATLC CONTS. MDL SOUNDGS INDICATE A VRY DEEP WRM
LYR OF 4-5KM WHICH WL SUPPORT EXTRMLY EFFICIENT RNFL PRDCG
STORMS THRU THE PD. UPSLOPE WL INCRS INTO WRN SC/NC TNGT AND
CONT INTO ERLY FRI BEFORE SUBSIDG AS THE CENTER OF IVAN MOVS
INTO THE REGION. A SCND AREA OF FOCUSED XCSV RNFL SHLD BE OVR
THE NWRD QUAD (UPR DEFORMATION ZONE) AS MSTR FM IVAN IS DRAWN
NWD INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE LYG ACRS THE UPR OH VLY INTO THE TN
VLY. MDLS HAVE BEEN VRY CONSISTENT WITH THE SCND REGION OF
HVIER RNFL...BUT AT THE SAME TIME TAKG THE SFC REFLECTION AWAY
FM THIS REGION. DUE TO THIS...HAVE BACKED OFF SLGTLY FM THE MDL
SOLUS OF A WDSPRD 5-7 INCH RNFL EVENT THIS PD ACRS ERN TN/KY INTO
WV AND SWRN PA.  ALSO SUPPORTG LWRG AMTS IS A STG UPR JET
THAT IS MOVG INTO THE BACKSIDE OF IVAN AND SHLD ROTATE TO
THE ERN SIDE AND HELP PULL HIM NEWD. THIS JET SEEMS TO HAVE
COME OVR THE TOP OF JAVIER. WHILE THE HVY/XCSV RNFL WL BE
CONCENTRATED OVR THE SRN/CNTRL APLCHNS...MOD/HVY AMTS
WL STILL BE PSBL OVR THE SERN U.S. WHERE MDLS SHOW SUPPORT
FOR INFLOW BANDS FORMG DURG THE AFTN HRS. ALSO XPCT
SOME MOD/HVY AMTS TO STREAK NEWD ALNG THE SFC BNDRY ACRS
PA INTO SERN NYS. A BROAD REGION OF 2-4 INCH RNS IS XPCD WITH 4-8
INCH AMTS NR THE TRACK OF IVAN AND IN THE FAVORED UPSLOPE
REGIONS OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND SRN APLCHNS. ISOLD HVIER
AMTS ARE LKLY.

...PAC NW...
A SERIES OF STG SHRTWVS DROPG INTO THE ERN PAC/PAC NW REGION
WL SUPPORT BACKG MID/UPR LVL FLOW...INCRSG UPR JET DYNAMICS
AND HGT FALLS ACRS THE REGION. DEEP MSTR WL FEED INTO THE
REGION AND SLOLY WORK DOWN THE CST THRU THE PD. XPCT MOSTLY
MOD AMTS ALNG THE FAVORED HIER TERRAIN/UPSLOPE
REGIONS...BUT SOME HVY PCPN IS PSBL WHERE UPSLOPE IS THE STGST.
MIDLVL HGTS WL DROP LOW ENUF FOR SOME SNOW IN THE HIEST ELEVS
NR THE END OF THE PD.

ECKERT

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
 
24HR QP VT 18/00Z
 0.01 537211 532190 528167 523160 517153 511149 503144 476124 
      474123 472119 475108 475102 472099 470098 467101 465104 
      464110 461119 456125 454130 452134 451138 447140 441144 
      439149 438155 438162 440165 442174 441178 438182 436185 
      435191 437197 439200 445206 447203 449204 451205 453201 
      456197 458192 469179 471178 476179 479182 482186 487192 
      485196 477196 472197 469201 464205 459207 457209 451213 
      444212 436214 428214 425215 423219 417228 415229 413228 
      413225 413219 411218 409220 406225 405232 401234 399240 
      400245 402247 416251 421252 425251 434251 447250 464252 
      474255 479258 483262 486264 490269 494277 499284 504286 
      509284 514276 517272 517265 518258 517255 516248 514243 
      512232 507225 505216 500208 497204 495200 498200 505202 
      510205 515209 521215 527219 530219 533216 537211 
 0.01 497982 506990 518985 519966 517957 514936 512925 511916 
      509909 506901 500890 495877 491870 487871 484873 480878 
      476885 475891 472904 471909 472914 474922 476927 478930 
      485944 484951 478952 472954 467957 466960 468965 471970 
      475972 485975 495980 497982 
 0.01 444690 441684 435686 425695 411714 404723 396733 387744 
      383749 377753 371756 365755 356752 352752 346755 337762 
      328772 322780 318791 316795 313799 307802 301804 291805 
      284801 274799 263798 257800 252802 244811 244815 241819 
      242826 246832 254835 271839 273848 275852 278856 281857 
      284857 289855 290859 289868 292881 296881 300877 302873 
      303867 308859 313856 320854 328858 331864 332868 334874 
      333882 333886 337889 350886 361883 366885 366890 365897 
      362902 357912 347930 337952 334960 332966 331974 329985 
      329989 331993 333999 335996 337987 341976 348953 357934 
      368915 379896 390874 394865 396860 400854 411835 423812 
      429800 435788 439779 445766 450754 455743 456735 456728 
      453725 451725 448725 447720 448711 447704 445700 444694 
      444690 
 0.25 526203 527198 526193 523188 521184 518180 516175 513170 
      508165 505165 502167 501171 504177 506181 509185 511190 
      516195 519199 522202 526203 
 0.25 511260 511256 510250 508240 504229 500219 499214 496209 
      488206 484203 480203 474206 466212 459215 451217 451221 
      453225 456227 456231 449234 445236 444241 452243 461244 
      471246 476248 481251 487258 498274 501277 505274 505267 
      506263 508261 511260 
 0.25 475223 480223 484225 488229 489232 485234 483237 482234 
      481231 478227 475226 473224 475223 
 0.25 485160 476157 470149 465139 461139 458143 451151 447152 
      446154 447158 448171 451180 448183 453186 456185 460182 
      463178 463172 460169 461165 467164 477163 479161 481163 
      485160 
 0.25 434742 434737 432732 428724 423724 417731 407738 401745 
      398750 392761 386764 379767 368769 358769 352769 346771 
      341775 337779 330787 326793 325797 318807 313812 307815 
      301815 296813 287810 277807 266806 260808 258810 259814 
      265822 274829 282835 291841 294844 300843 306844 308845 
      310848 321847 325847 330850 334854 337859 343872 346877 
      352878 365875 372872 379867 387859 395849 402839 408827 
      419806 424792 428781 433760 434749 434742 
 0.25 429244 427239 425239 422241 424244 427244 429244 
 0.50 501271 501266 499260 497255 495249 492245 487240 483240 
      479235 478233 473233 469236 472241 480245 485251 490257 
      495264 497269 500271 501271 
 0.50 505249 505243 504239 500230 498223 495212 491212 486207 
      481207 479208 473211 472213 469215 467217 466220 468220 
      472218 475217 478217 484220 488221 492225 494233 497241 
      498246 501247 505249 
 0.50 427751 425744 422741 418742 413746 407753 399762 391768 
      383770 373775 364777 354779 349779 344782 335788 333791 
      330796 330806 330812 327815 318821 312824 290829 289832 
      291833 295835 303837 311840 317843 326845 334850 338856 
      344867 348874 354875 360873 371868 378862 385855 393847 
      403830 411814 417803 420794 426773 428761 427751 
 1.00 420764 419758 416753 413755 405770 401774 397776 391775 
      387775 383777 374781 345794 340798 340803 341807 339814 
      335820 324829 324836 328842 337849 341855 345864 348870 
      352871 356870 364866 370862 377857 382852 391841 400828 
      406816 412801 417786 419774 420764 
 2.00 411786 409781 407784 402790 397796 393804 383817 370828 
      368830 365829 366825 368822 372816 377810 385803 389798 
      388796 383797 381796 381793 383788 383784 375787 367792 
      358796 352801 350804 349808 347815 343821 337827 335830 
      334834 334841 339848 343854 347861 348866 352867 356866 
      361864 368859 374854 383842 392828 400815 404807 407799 
      410791 411786 
 3.00 390827 398813 402803 400804 395808 381824 376830 369835 
      363837 360836 360833 362823 368815 371805 374796 374793 
      372793 367796 359801 355805 354809 350818 345825 341830 
      339834 338838 338841 339844 345853 349862 352865 357863 
      365858 373851 378844 384835 390827 
 4.00 381835 379833 375835 367841 362844 355845 358830 360824 
      364817 367803 364804 362806 357812 350822 345828 343831 
      342835 343843 347848 350858 351862 355862 362858 367853 
      372847 377843 381835 
 5.00 363854 369847 369844 365845 361849 357850 355850 353854 
      355856 356858 359857 362855 363854 
 5.00 361817 360813 357816 354820 351824 349827 345831 344835 
      344839 346842 350843 352839 355835 356831 357826 359821 
      361817 
 6.00 356827 356823 353823 352825 351826 349829 348830 347832 
      346835 346838 349840 351837 352836 353834 354831 355829 
      356827 
 7.00 353832 354828 352827 350829 349830 347834 348838 349838 
      349837 351835 353832 353832 
 8.00 351833 350832 349833 350834 351833  
 
D$$