AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ                                              
215 PM MST SAT SEP 15 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS....SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A WEST COAST TROUGH WILL                   
CONTINUE TO DRAW MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND LEAD TO AN                
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE TROUGH MOVES             
INLAND MONDAY...ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE                 
REGION AND LEAD TO MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS AND MORE SEASONABLE                    
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM             
SYSTEM MAY PULL MOISTURE BACK NORTH INTO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND.            
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...THE ACTIVE 48-60HR PERIOD WE HAVE BEEN FORECASTING FOR            
A FEW DAYS NOW IS GETTING UNDERWAY. MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX                 
LIFTING N THROUGH SONORA...ALONG WITH THE DEEP S FLOW TAPPING INTO              
THE MONSOON MOISTURE TO OUR S...HAS HELPED TO SPARK MAINLY MOUNTAIN             
TSTMS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THOSE HAVE SINCE BEGUN TO PUSH OFF IN               
THE 10-15KTS OF SSE FLOW. WATER VAPOR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE INVERTED            
TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY N ACROSS SINALOA AND TOWARD SE AZ. MEANWHILE...            
THE SHORT WAVE LIFTING ACROSS NE NV IS INDUCING SOME DIVERGENCE OVER            
MUCH OF THE STATE...WITH STRONG TSTMS FIRING OVER THE W DESERTS AND             
EVEN OVER NE AZ. BOTH NAM AND GFS INDUCE SOME SORT OF A CONVECTIVE              
SYSTEM OVER PIMA/SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES TONIGHT...AND BASED ON HOW                 
THINS HAVE BEEN EVOLVING...I AM BEGINNING TO BELIEVE IT. HAVE                   
ALREADY RAISED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IN AN EARLY                  
AFTERNOON UPDATE...BUT WE MAY HAVE TO RAISE THEM EVEN MORE IN THE               
AFTERNOON PACKAGE...WHILE CARRYING LOW GRADE POPS ALL NIGHT. THE                
STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR MICROBURST/DOWNBURST                
POTENTIAL WITH LATEST SPC RUC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING DCAPE AT                     
1200-1300 J/KG. HWO WAS ISSUED EARLIER TO MENTION THIS...MAINLY                 
SOUTHWEST OF A WINKLEMAN-DOUGLAS LINE WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE                
ARRIVES.                                                                        
FORTUNATELY...THE MODELS HAVE CONVERGED SOMEWHAT ON HOW THE NEXT                
48HRS WILL EVOLVE. THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT SEVERE                  
POTENTIAL SUN AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH SOLAR HEATING NOW IN DOUBT AND               
BEST 0-6KM SHEAR HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE DRY SLOT OVERRUNS US MON                 
MORNING. WHAT IS NOW CLEAR...THOUGH...IS THAT MUCH OF THE CWA IS                
GOING TO RECEIVE SOME DECENT PRECIP AT SOME POINT BEFORE THE FRONT              
SWEEPS THROUGH THE CWA MON MORNING. BOTH NAM AND GFS NOW BRING IN               
ENOUGH COOLING ALOFT TO BRING THICKNESSES DOWN TO SATURATION OF THE             
1.5 TO 1.7" PRECIP WATERS WE WILL HAVE IN PLACE SUN AFTERNOON/                  
EVENING. IF WE END UP WITH THE 1500+ J/KG OF CAPE THE LATEST SREF IS            
SUGGESTING...WE COULD HAVE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT ON TOP OF THE RISK              
FOR HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. HOWEVER...HEIGHT FALLS ACTING ON A                   
TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME LIKE THIS CAN JUST AS EASILY RESULT IN                  
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OR EVEN STRATIFORM RAIN WITH JUST EMBEDDED TSTMS.            
WE WILL NOT GO TOO HIGH WITH QPF YET...BUT IN CONCERT WITH OUR                  
NEIGHBORS...WE WILL RAISE POPS ANOTHER 10 PCT SUN-SUN NIGHT AND                 
RAISE OUR QPFS TO THE 0.25-0.5" RANGE. WE COULD STILL BE TOO LOW ON             
BOTH...BUT THIS IS A GOOD START. BASED ON WHERE THE JET CORE WILL               
TRAVERSE /N AZ/...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE DRY SLOT WILL RACE ACROSS             
ALL BUT FAR NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA MON AND CAP US OFF BEFORE THE                
FRONT ITSELF ARRIVES. SO WILL REFINE POP TIMING A BIT TO HIGHLIGHT              
THE IMPROVING CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SOME SW BREEZES BEHIND THE                  
FRONT. AFTER MON...NOT ONLY WILL WE GET A BREAK FROM THE HEAT...THE             
HUMIDITY WILL FINALLY DROP AND ALLOW DIURNAL RANGES TO WIDEN TO                 
SOMETHING MORE TYPICAL OF MID SEP. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE PRETTY                
COMFORTABLE IN THE TUE-FRI PERIOD...WITH SOME SEASONABLY COOL 30S IN            
THE SOUTHERN WHITES EXPECTED.                                                   
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO THROW US SLOW CURVES...                     
KNUCKLEBALLS...AND OTHER VARIETIES OF JUNK PITCHES WITH OUR DAY 5-7             
SYSTEM. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS REPEATED ITS 00Z TREND OF CLOSING A DEEP              
LOW OFF OVER S CA BY LATE NEXT FRI AND DRAWING THE MONSOON BACK                 
NORTH. THAT WAS WHAT THE GFS HAD OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.                        
MEANWHILE...THE 12Z GFS CARRIES THE BOWLING BALL OFFSHORE TO 130W...            
WHICH WOULD MEAN RIDGING AND TEMPS ACTUALLY CLIMBING INSTEAD OF                 
DROPPING. THE ENSEMBLES SHOW AN UNUSUALLY LARGE SPREAD...WHILE THE              
GFS ENSEMBLE HAS A 4-5 STANDARD DEVIATION NEGATIVE ANOMALY OVER THE             
CA BIGHT. SUCH ANOMALIES RARELY VERIFY...AND INSTEAD SUGGESTS THE               
MODEL SHOULD NOT BE TRUSTED...ESPECIALLY WITH MUCH WEAKER                       
POSITIVE ANOMALIES ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LOW. WILL FOLLOW HPC/S                 
ADVICE AND LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR NOW WITH GREAT CAUTION. THIS               
WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN COULD COVER AND HIGHER TERRAIN                
POPS.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND WILL THREAT ALL TAF               
SITES THIS EVENING...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT TO KTUS AND KOLS. ANY             
TSTMS THAT APPROACH AIRPORTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS            
OVER 40KTS...WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES. THE             
RISK WILL DIMINISH AFTER ABOUT 03Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED             
FOR TAF AND TWEB AMENDMENTS.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
$$                                                                              
PYTLAK                                                                          
WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON                                                              
</pre> az                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
434 AM MDT FRI SEP 14 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)                                                             
MAIN FCST CONCERNS WILL BE EXTENT AND PERSISTENCE OF STRATUS ACROSS             
THE SE PLAINS TODAY...THEN POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTORMS THIS                   
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH INCOMING SHORTWAVE...FOLLOWED BY STRATUS                 
REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS.                                      
STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOWLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SE PLAINS...WITH VFR              
TO MVFR CIGS BEING REPORTED AT KPUB AND KLHX AND KAFF.  FROM FOG                
IMAGERY PRODUCT APPEARS STRATUS SHOULD SPREAD QUICKLY INTO SRN EL               
PASO COUNTY...AIDED BY SE UPSLOPE WINDS.  MOISTURE LAYER IN NAM                 
SOUNDINGS IS VERY SHALLOW NEAR THE EASTERN MTS...AND NEITHER RUC NOR            
NAM12 ARE PRINTING OUT MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF FOR THE I-25                      
CORRIDOR.  THUS HAVE PARED OUT MORNING POPS FOR THIS REGION.                    
FARTHER EAST...IS STILL DIFFICULT TO SAY.  MOISTURE LAYER IS A                  
LITTLE THICKER ACROSS THIS REGION...AND THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTTY              
DRIZZLE DEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING.  IN ADDITION...A WEAK SHORTWAVE                
MOVING ACROSS CO IS SPREADING SOME MID/HIGH LVL MOISTURE ACROSS THE             
REGION...AND COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES DEVELOP WITH THIS WEAK                   
FEATURE.  ALL-IN-ALL AM NOT THAT IMPRESSED WITH PCPN POTENTIAL...BUT            
WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW GRADE ISOLATED POPS NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER              
THROUGH THE MORNING.                                                            
STRATUS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK BY AFTN.  SRLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS IN            
THE LOW LVLS...SO STRATUS SHOULD BREAK MORE QUICKLY ALONG THE NRN               
EDGE OF THE RATON RIDGE...AND PERSIST THE LONGEST ALONG THE SRN EDGE            
OF THE PALMER WHERE SRLY COMPONENT WILL PROVIDE AN UPSLOPE                      
COMPONENT.  FAR EASTERN AREAS WHERE MOIST LAYER IS DEEPEST MAY ALSO             
SEE STRATUS PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTN.  FOR WESTERN AREAS...AN                
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY BACK OVER UT WILL BE MOVING INTO WRN               
CO...BRINGING A FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK                     
FORCING.  THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND                    
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MTS BY AFTN.  THIS ACTIVITY                   
SPREADS EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE EVENING...AIDED BY LOW            
LVL JET WHICH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE SOME ELEVATED                 
CONVECTION INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS ACROSS FAR EASTERN CO/WRN KS.                 
WHILE THE NAM IS LIKELY OVERDONE WITH THE AREAL COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS            
OF QPF ACROSS THE SE PLAINS TONIGHT...THINK IT WARRANTS SOME                    
ISOLATED POPS WHICH BLENDS WELL WITH NEIGHBORS.                                 
INTERESTINGLY...SRLY RETURN FLOW TRIES TO ADVECT SOME LOWER 50 DEW              
POINTS INTO THE SRN I-25 CORRIDOR/NRN SLOPES OF THE RATON RIDGE BY              
AFTN.  THIS MAY YIELD UP TO 1500 J/KG OF CAPE IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH            
DEEP LAYER SHEARS OF 40-50 KTS WHERE EASTERLY LOW LVL FLOW RESIDES              
UNDER STRENGTHENING WESTERLIES ALOFT WITH INCOMING SHORTWAVE/UPPER              
JET.  THUS ENVIRONMENT COULD SUPPORT A SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM DOWN              
ALONG THE SRN I-25 CORRIDOR...THOUGH THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH               
SFC HEATING CAN TAKE PLACE TO ERODE LOW LVL STABLE LAYER.  WIND                 
GUSTS UP TO NEAR 58 MPH AND HAIL TO NEAR 3/4 INCH IN DIAMETER WILL              
BE POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION.  ELSEWHERE...THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH                 
VALLEYS COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH...BRIEF                 
RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING AS THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM THREATS.                        
STRATUS MAKES A RETURN OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS.               
AFTER 06Z LEE TROF DEVELOPS WHICH HELPS SPREAD SOME WESTERLIES INTO             
THE I-25 CORRIDOR WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO ERODE WESTWARD EDGE OF                  
STRATUS TOWARDS DAWN.  -KT                                                      
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)                                                     
.SATURDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST. NAM                 
SUGGESTS THAT SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LINGER ON THE PLAINS                 
EARLY IN THE MORNING...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY REMAINS IN THE GRIDS. BY               
MIDDAY...WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS WITH                
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. THERE WILL BE THE                    
POSSIBILITY OF THE LEE TROUGH LINGERING NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER                  
DURING THE AFTERNOON. NAM SHOWS A NARROW AREA OF CAPES APPROACHING              
2500 J/KG IN WESTERN KANSAS...EXTENDING INTO SOUTHEAST BACA                     
COUNTY. WITH BULK SHEARS OF 40 KNOTS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR               
STORMS TO BECOME STRONG IF THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY. IN THE                  
GRIDS...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE EXTENDED EASTWARD TO NEAR THE                   
KANSAS BORDER. OTHERWISE...SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE RIDGE                 
MAY RESULT IN A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS OVER THE                       
MOUNTAINS.                                                                      
.SUNDAY...FAIRLY STRONG TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN.                  
GFS..NAM AND EC INDICATE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL                
PULL SOME SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE STATE. POPS IN               
THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WERE INCREASED WITH SCATTERED               
POPS OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. POPS ARE LOWER OVER THE EASTERN                
MOUNTAINS...AND REMAIN NEAR ZERO ON THE PLAINS. WITH BROAD                      
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE              
ON THE PLAINS TO DEVELOP ANY STORMS. MEX AND MAV HAVE TEMPERATURES              
IN THE UPPER 90S OVER PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS. THIS MAY BE A LITTLE              
BIT TO WARM WITH THE MID SEPTEMBER SUNSHINE...AND MAXIMUMS WERE                 
KEPT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ON THE PLAINS...WHICH IS STILL               
WELL ABOVE NORMAL.                                                              
.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ONE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON                
MONDAY WITH A SECOND TROUGH PASSING ON TUESDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR                
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE              
SYNOPTIC FORCING...DAYTIME HEATING AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE. ON THE               
PLAINS...LOWER LEVELS WILL BE DRY...BUT WITH THE SYNOPTIC LIFT AND              
COOLING ALOFT...A FEW HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. ON                 
TUESDAY...THE MODELS HAVE THE TROUGH PASSING DURING THE MORNING                 
WITH VERY DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE ISOLATED POPS OVER                
THE REGION WERE KEPT FOR TUESDAY...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR THE                  
TROUGH TO BE SLOWER.                                                            
.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...EC ...GFS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE A STRONG                 
TROUGH DIVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD              
OF THE TROUGH WILL TEND TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE.                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...MVFR STRATUS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE SE PLAINS BETWEEN             
09Z AND 13Z.  STRATUS WILL BE THICKER NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER WHERE               
SOME VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.             
STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY                      
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE                 
MOUNTAINS AFTER NOON.  THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE OFF INTO THE                
ADJACENT PLAINS DURING THE EVENING...THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THESE               
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK...PRODUCING SOME BRIEF RAINFALL AS THEY               
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE OVER COOLER MORE STABLE AIRMASS                
ACROSS THE PLAINS.  THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE NEAR KTAD WHERE A             
STRONG STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE.  MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO              
REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS                   
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW LVL JET SETS UP.  THESE              
SHOULD END BY EARLY SAT MORNING.  STRATUS WILL ERODE AWAY FROM                  
THE EASTERN MTS AND THE KCOS/KPUB TAF SITES BY 12Z AS WESTERLY LOW              
LVL FLOW SPREADS INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR.                                        
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
31/06                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY                                               
239 PM EDT SAT SEP 15 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE EAST...AND WILL BE                   
FOLLOWED BY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE. THE COOLEST WEATHER OF THE SEASON             
SO FAR IS EXPECTED AS THIS HIGH BUILDS IN.                                      
THE HIGH WILL HANG AROUND FOR AWHILE...RESULTING IN A FAIR WEATHER              
WEEK AHEAD...WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES.                            
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
TYPICAL STRONG LATE SUMMER/EARLY FALL FRONT HAS PASSED. COOL SEASON             
SYNOPTIC FLOW IN FULL FORCE AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS               
TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT. IN SPITE OF STRONG CAA...IT DOES LOOK                
LIKE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MIXED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS             
EXPECTED NW FLOW TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT AS LOW AS THEY             
COULD HAVE IN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SITUATION. THIS WOULD LIMIT             
ANY FROST DEVELOPMENT...AND KEEP READINGS ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF MOS.            
OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS THIS DRY AIRMASS RUSHES            
IN.                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                         
FAST FLOW ALOFT...AND SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD OVERHEAD...AND SLOWLY             
PUSH TO THE EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD                 
ALOFT. LITTLE CLOUD COVER TO SPEAK OF THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS FOR                
TEMPS...WITH H8 HPA TEMPS RUNNING AROUND 4 TO 5C...LOOKS LIKE MID               
TO UPPER 60S SHOULD SUFFICE FOR SUNDAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING                
CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS...WINDS LIGHTEN AND             
SKIES REMAIN CLEAR. THIS SHOULD BE THE COLDEST NIGHT...AND BETTER               
CHANCE FOR FROST DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS SHOULD DROP QUICKLY...LOWER 50S             
METRO...THE 40S SUBURBS WITH UPPER 30S INTERIOR/PINE BARRENS OF LI              
EXPECTED.                                                                       
AIRMASS MODIFIES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH TEMPS CLIMBING A COUPLE OF             
DEGREES EACH DAY. H8 TEMPS UP TO 6C MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS HIGH                  
PRESSURE REMAINS JUST NORTHEAST. MARITIME FETCH FROM WARMER WATERS              
WILL ALSO HELP BOOST TEMPS SOMEWHAT...TO NEAR 70.                               
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                  
PERSISTENT PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH                   
PRESSURE PREDOMINATES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. IN THE UPPER                        
LEVELS...LARGE DIFFERENCES IN UPPER PATTERN APPARENT FRI AND SAT                
WITH STRONGLY SUPPORTED ECMWF INDICATING LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE            
WESTERN STATES...AND THUS STRENGTHENING RIDGE EAST. GEFS SUPPORTS               
THIS AS OUTLIER OPERATIONAL GFS DISPLACES UPPER TROUGH WESTWARD OFF             
THE WEST COAST...AND ALLOWS SHORTWAVE TO DIG ACROSS UPPER MID WEST              
TOWARD NORTHEAST. THIS WOULD MEAN FRONT KICKS OUT SFC HIGH.                     
SO...GFS PROGS TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST...AND BUILDING RIDGE                   
PROGGED FROM ECMWF/GEFS. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO RESOLVE THESE                  
DIFFERENCES...BUT OBVIOUSLY FOLLOWED HPC/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES. THIS WOULD            
MEAN SFC HIGH HANGING TOUGH FOR AWHILE.                                         
TAKING ALL THIS INTO ACCOUNT...DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR THE LOCAL            
CWA WITH THIS ANOMALOUS SFC HIGH IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST.                   
EXPECT A SLOW WARMUP THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY             
ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS. H8 TEMPS NEAR 13-14C THROUGH MUCH OF THE                 
PERIOD AID IN THE MERCURY RISING WELL INTO THE 70S...AND POSSIBLY TO            
NEAR 80 WITH TYPICAL MIXING. IF AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM THE             
SOUTH DOES OCCUR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...TEMPS MAY FALL A FEW DEGREES             
SHORT...INTO THE LOWER 70S. FOR NOW THOUGH WILL LEAN TOWARD WARMER              
SOLUTIONS.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                    
THE 18Z TAF PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH BKN VFR CIGS AS A MID LEVEL              
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. NNW WINDS WILL GUST TO 25-30 KT MAINLY               
BETWEEN 18Z-20Z...AS LATEST ACARS SOUNDINGS AND RUC/NAM MODELS                  
INDICATE BRIEF SURGE OF STRONGER WIND ALOFT BETWEEN 3-4 KFT AGL                 
MOVING THROUGH AND MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WINDS SHOULD                     
GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS EVENING TO UNDER 10 KT BY MIDNIGHT...TAKING             
LONGEST AT NYC AREA TERMINALS WHERE URBAN HEAT ISLAND PROLONGS                  
MIXING...THEN TURN MORE N OR EVEN NNE AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST              
NOSES IN AT FIRST ACROSS THE INTERIOR. FLOW SLACKENS ENOUGH THAT SEA            
BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP BEFORE 18Z AT KBDR/KGON...PERHAPS DELAYED AN             
HOUR LATER THAN USUAL. ORIENTATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH MAY ALSO                 
PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF AN E-NE SOUND BREEZE AT KLGA SHORTLY BEFORE              
18Z SUN...BUT CONFIDENCE LEVEL NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAF.               
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUN THROUGH THU...SEA BREEZES SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP               
LATER SUN AFTERNOON AT KJFK/KISP...AND POSSIBLY SPREAD INLAND TO                
KEWR/KTEB. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...KLGA MAY ALSO SEE AN E-NE SOUND                 
BREEZE.                                                                         
OTHERWISE...LATE NIGHT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN RADIATION FOG MAY                  
BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY...ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE THE NYC URBAN HEAT              
ISLAND BOTH TUE NIGHT AND WED NIGHT...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE                     
INCREASES...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE                  
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN OFFSHORE LOW AND BUILDING HIGH               
PRESSURE...WILL RESULT IN NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH                 
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. IN ADDITION...SEAS WILL BE BUILDING TO 5 FT ON               
THE OCEAN WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS                
EVENING...ALLOWING WINDS TO SUBSIDE BELOW SCA BY THIS EVENING EXCEPT            
ON THE OCEAN AND LONG ISLAND SOUTH SHORE BAYS.                                  
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA...WINDS AND SEAS              
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DROP BELOW SCA                  
LEVELS EVERYWHERE LATE TONIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL BRING TRANQUIL                   
CONDITIONS FROM SUNDAY INTO MID WEEK...THOUGH SEAS MAY BUILD                    
SLIGHTLY BY MID WEEK ON PERSISTENT NE-E FLOW.                                   
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
AFTER EARLIER RAIN DUMPED LIGHT AMOUNTS WEST...AND UP TO A HALF AN              
INCH EAST...DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR QUITE SOMETIME. RIVER AND               
STREAM LEVELS SHOULD SLOWLY RECEDE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.                   
&&                                                                              
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
NJ...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ330-         
     335-338-340.                                                               
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ345-350-353-             
     355.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...PW                                                                   
NEAR TERM...PW                                                                  
SHORT TERM...PW                                                                 
LONG TERM...PW                                                                  
AVIATION...BG                                                                   
MARINE...BC                                                                     
HYDROLOGY...PW                                                                  
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY                                               
204 PM EDT SAT SEP 15 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION BY EARLY THIS                         
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE                  
NORTHERN PLAINS STATES AND THE COOLEST WEATHER OF THE SEASON THIS               
FAR. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK              
WEEK...WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES BEGINNING ON MONDAY.              
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
BAND OF POST-FRONTAL LIGHT SHOWERS WAS MOVING INTO WESTERN CT/LONG              
ISLAND AS OF 15Z. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POP FOR THOSE AREAS INTO               
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AS IT APPEARS THEY MAY NOT CLEAR FAR EASTERN             
SECTIONS UNTIL 1730Z-18Z. OVERCAST CONDITIONS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO                
PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH STRATOCU DEVELOPING MAINLY IN THE              
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MIXING UP TO ABOUT 825 MB SHOULD YIELD MAX TEMPS A           
LITTLE WARMER THAN 06Z MAV NUMBERS...UPPER 60S WELL NORTH/WEST AND              
70-75 ELSEWHERE...AS WELL AS MIX DOWN STRONGER WINDS FROM                       
ALOFT...WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH.                                               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...                               
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN                  
LIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST AND ELONGATE ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE...THE                 
COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON WILL INFILTRATE THE REGION...WITH                 
850 HPA TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO 2-4 DEGREES C BY TONIGHT FROM THE              
13 DEGREES C OBSERVED BY THE KOKX SOUNDING LAST EVENING. LOW                    
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE PRESSURE                    
GRADIENT RELAXES. BELIEVE THAT THE FLOW MAY STILL BE JUST STRONG                
ENOUGH TO KEEP US FROM PERFECT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...                
ESPECIALLY IN THE MORE POPULATED AREAS. HAVE THEREFORE STAYED ON THE            
WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE ACROSS THE BOARD...WITH MINS RANGING FROM THE             
LOWER 50S IN NYC...TO MID AND UPPER 40S MOST ELSEWHERE...TO LOWER 40S           
ACROSS ORANGE/PUTNAM/NORTHERN FAIRFIELD/NORTHERN NEW HAVEN COUNTIES.            
MOST LOCALES WILL HAVE TROUBLE REACHING 70 DEGREES ON SUNDAY...AND              
THEN SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE                    
DOWNRIGHT CHILLY IN MANY SPOTS. THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE              
BY MONDAY...AND THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A MORE MARITIME FETCH AS                 
THE HIGH MOVES EAST TO ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK TOWARD                       
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                     
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD                 
WHILE HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISE ALOFT...WHICH SPELLS FAIR WX WITH A                
GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPS. THIS SHOULD KEEP A COLD FRONT WELL                 
NORTH OF THE REGION...BUT WE MAY HAVE WATCH FOR SOME UNSETTLED WX               
DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD...FROM WED NIGHT INTO THU...AS PERSISTENT            
ONSHORE FLOW MAY ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO MOVE WESTWARD TOWARD THE                 
COAST AND EVENTUALLY BRING LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. HPC NOTES THAT               
MODELS ARE OVERLY BIASED TOWARD THIS WESTWARD MOTION...SO OTHER THAN            
SOME POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT PATCHY RADIATION FOG BY WED...WX IS MORE               
LIKELY THAN NOT TO REMAIN FAIR THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                    
THE 18Z TAF PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH BKN VFR CIGS AS A MID LEVEL              
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. NNW WINDS WILL GUST TO 25-30 KT MAINLY               
BETWEEN 18Z-20Z...AS LATEST ACARS SOUNDINGS AND RUC/NAM MODELS                  
INDICATE BRIEF SURGE OF STRONGER WIND ALOFT BETWEEN 3-4 KFT AGL                 
MOVING THROUGH AND MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WINDS SHOULD                     
GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS EVENING TO UNDER 10 KT BY MIDNIGHT...TAKING             
LONGEST AT NYC AREA TERMINALS WHERE URBAN HEAT ISLAND PROLONGS                  
MIXING...THEN TURN MORE N OR EVEN NNE AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST              
NOSES IN AT FIRST ACROSS THE INTERIOR. FLOW SLACKENS ENOUGH THAT SEA            
BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP BEFORE 18Z AT KBDR/KGON...PERHAPS DELAYED AN             
HOUR LATER THAN USUAL. ORIENTATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH MAY ALSO                 
PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF AN E-NE SOUND BREEZE AT KLGA SHORTLY BEFORE              
18Z SUN...BUT CONFIDENCE LEVEL NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAF.               
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUN THROUGH THU...SEA BREEZES SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP               
LATER SUN AFTERNOON AT KJFK/KISP...AND POSSIBLY SPREAD INLAND TO                
KEWR/KTEB. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...KLGA MAY ALSO SEE AN E-NE SOUND                 
BREEZE.                                                                         
OTHERWISE...LATE NIGHT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN RADIATION FOG MAY                  
BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY...ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE THE NYC URBAN HEAT              
ISLAND BOTH TUE NIGHT AND WED NIGHT...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE                     
INCREASES...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE WATERS BY 17Z-18Z...WITH THE COMBO OF A           
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN OFFSHORE LOW AND BUILDING HIGH               
PRESSURE...MODERATE PRESSURE RISES AND GOOD MIXING YIELDING WINDS               
15-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT...AND SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT ON THE              
OUTER OCEAN WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD LESSEN THIS EVENING...              
ALLOWING WINDS TO SUBSIDE BELOW SCA BY THIS EVENING EXCEPT ON THE               
OCEAN AND LONG ISLAND SOUTH SHORE BAYS.                                         
WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SCA ACROSS THE BOARD LATE TONIGHT AS             
THE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH WILL BRING TRANQUIL                 
CONDITIONS FROM SUNDAY INTO MID WEEK...THOUGH SEAS MAY BUILD SLIGHTLY           
BY MID WEEK ON PERSISTENT NE-E FLOW.                                            
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
DRY FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT FRI.                                 
&&                                                                              
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
NJ...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR                 
     ANZ330-335-338-340.                                                        
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR                             
     ANZ345-350-353-355.                                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...GOODMAN                                                              
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS                                   
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL                                            
1048 AM EDT SAT SEP 15 2007                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
OBSERVATIONS/TRENDS -- ALTHOUGH THE KEY WEST MORNING SOUNDING                   
INDICATED MORE MOIST CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE THAN 24                
HOURS AGO...LATEST GOES SOUNDER DATA AND RUC OUTPUT SUGGEST A DRY               
POCKET BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND THE KEYS...WITH KEY WEST ON THE                  
NORTHWESTERN FLANK. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE WFO CONFIRM MOSTLY            
SUNNY SKIES AT PRESENT WITH MOST CUMULI OF LITTLE VERTICAL EXTENT.              
STILL...KEY WEST DOPPLER RADAR SCANS SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE           
SERVICE AREA MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 7KT. AIR                      
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID OR UPPER 80S AFTER OVERNIGHT               
LOWS NEAR 80F. CURRENT DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 70S. THE RIDGE OF               
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE KEYS HAS WEAKENED DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS           
OWING TO A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH MIGRATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN                 
UNITED STATES. AS A RESULT...MSL PRESSURES LOCALLY HAVE DROPPED ABOUT           
A MILLIBAR AND THE DEEP LAYER WIND HAS BACKED TO ENE THROUGH A DEEP             
LAYER.                                                                          
AFTERNOON FORECASTS -- THE LOWER KEYS CUMULUS LINE WILL PROBABLY GET            
A LATE START AGAIN TODAY. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE LOWER                     
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT. THE KEYS WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTH OR             
WEST FLANK OF AN AREA OF DRY AIR EXTENDING DOWN BELOW 700MB. RUC                
SOUNDINGS AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGEST THIS DRY AIR IS AND WILL             
PERSIST IN TRAVERSING THE KEYS...WHEREAS...NWP OUTPUT FROM WRF/GFS              
SUGGEST THAT THE DRY AIR REMAINS TO THE SOUTH. WE THINK TODAY WILL BE           
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN THAT THE ISLAND TERRAIN-INDUCED CONVECTION              
WILL INITIATE LATE. SUCCESSIVE CUMULUS GROWTH AND DECAY WITHIN A                
NARROW...SLOW-MOVING...WEAKLY SHEARED CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER            
THE ISLANDS WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS...REDUCING DRY AIR            
ENTRAINMENT AROUND THE TIME OF PEAK DIABATIC HEATING LATER THIS                 
AFTERNOON. THUNDER AND SPOUTS WILL BE MOST LIKELY OVER HAWK CHANNEL             
JUST SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND SUNSET. WE              
WILL THUS KEEP THE CURRENT RAIN CHANCES OF 40 PERCENT OVER THE                  
ISLANDS WITH EMPHASIS ON "LATE". ISOLATED COVERAGE IS MORE LIKELY               
OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...CLOSER TO THE DRIER AIR.                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
GENTLE NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH             
LOCALLY HIGHER AND GUSTIER BREEZES IN AND NEAR SHOWERS AND                      
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND                 
INTENSITY AROUND THE ISLANDS AND NEAR THE MAINLAND LATE THIS                    
AFTERNOON. LOWEST COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA                  
BETWEEN THE KEYS AND CUBA.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY ALONG THE AIR ROUTE FROM MIAMI TO             
KEY WEST...AND AT OUR ISLAND TERMINALS.                                         
SHOWERS WHICH DEVELOP ON THE MAINLAND LEG OF THE ROUTE WILL HAVE                
MEAN CELL MOTION APPROX 07006KT...WITH MOST TOPS AOB FL350.                     
A CLOUD LINE IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOWER              
KEYS. THIS MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE KEY WEST TERMINAL. JUST CHECK              
THE LATEST METARS AND TAF AMENDMENTS WHEN PLANNING YOUR                         
FLIGHT.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER                                                    
AVIATION/SHORT TERM...DFM                                                       
DATA COLLECTION.......PARKE-ROSS                                                
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST                                  
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
230 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...VISIBLE LOOP AND RADAR SHOW NMRS STORMS OVER THE FL               
PANHANDLE ASSOCIATED WITH VORTICITY ENERGY IN A SHORT WAVE TROUGH.              
THE RUC SHOWS THIS AREA WILL MOVE INTO THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND SE               
GA FROM 21Z TO 03Z. REMNANTS OF HUMBERTO OVER MS/AL HAVE MERGED                 
WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THRU N GA AND SC.                              
AN UPPER TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SRN MS                   
VALLEY WILL SWEEP EWD TONIGHT AND SATURDAY PUSHING THE COLD FRONT               
THRU THE REGION BY EARLY SUNDAY. MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THE                    
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA AS THE FRONT SAGS INTO               
THE CWA TONIGHT. SE GA WILL HAVE SCT STORMS THRU THE NIGHT THEN                 
SCT STORMS WILL MOVE INTO NE FL EARLY SAT MORN WITH STORMS                      
TRANSFERRING TO THE SRN PORTION SAT AFTN.                                       
ON SUN/MON A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NE U.S.                   
WITH A RIDGE BUILDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. NELY FLOW               
SETS UP BETWEEN THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE AND THE FRONT OFFSHORE. AS              
THE PRES GRAD STRENGHTENS...A NE FLOW REGIME WILL CREATE BREEZY                 
AND OCCASIONALLY RAINY CONDS KEEPING TEMPS COOLER ESPECIALLY NEAR               
THE COAST. WILL GO WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S ON MONDAY ALTHOUGH THE                 
BEACHES MAY STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE THE UPPER 70S.                               
.LONG TERM...A CUT-OFF MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM IN               
THE BASE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH NEAR THE GA COAST...THEN TRAVEL                 
TOWARD THE WSW ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA MID WEEK AND WESTWARD ALONG              
THE GULF COAST THU/FRI. THE COMBINATION OF A SFC COASTAL TROUGH                 
AMPLIFYING OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING ALONG THE                         
APPALACHIAN MTNS WILL RESULT IN A WET BREEZY NELY FLOW TUE/WED.                 
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SELY WHEN THE CSTL TROF DRIFTS TO THE WEST                  
LATER IN THE WEEK. MODELS SUGGEST INCREASING MOISTURE WITH THE                  
ONSHORE FLOW BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS. TEMPS WILL BE                   
NEAR NORMAL WHICH IS 85 AND 68 FOR JAX THIS TIME OF YEAR.                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...LOOKING AT THE SREF QPF PROBABILITIES...WE SHOULD HAVE              
ANOTHER LATE START TO THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN TAF SITES               
AND CONVECTION NEAR TAF START TIME FOR GNV. IN DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST             
FLOW...WCSB HAS MADE GOOD PROGRESS INTO THE WESTERN MOST COUNTIES               
AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...WILL NEED TO AMEND TO BRING IN TSRA AN            
HOUR EARLIER. OTHERWISE...THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME RESIDUAL SHRA HAS              
TSRA WANES DURING THE LATE EVENING MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT. FRONT WILL             
MOVE THROUGH EARLY SAT AND MAY NEED TEMPO FOR CONVECTION WITH                   
SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...A CONTINUED VERY LIGHT WIND REGIME IN STORE FOR THE NEXT              
24 TO 48 HOURS AS FRONT SLIDES INTO THE AREA. EXCEPTION WILL BE THE             
POSSIBILITY OF A SURGE LATER THIS EVENING BUT THIS SHOULD STILL                 
REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN ISSUE WILL               
BE THE WIND SURGE COMING IN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH                     
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND INTERACTS WITH AN                
INVERTED TROUGH FORMED ALONG OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ONSET WITH                   
MODELS CONTINUES TO HAVE GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GFS NOW SHOWING A                  
STRONGER WIND FIELD SETTING UP LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WILL NOT               
GO AS HIGH AS THE GFS BUT DEFINITELY TREND IN THAT DIRECTION WITH               
25 KNOTS LIKELY OVER THE OFFSHORE.                                              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
AMG  71  89  69  85 /  40  30  30  20                                           
SSI  75  87  74  83 /  30  40  30  40                                           
JAX  74  90  72  86 /  40  50  40  40                                           
SGJ  74  88  74  85 /  40  50  40  40                                           
GNV  72  90  71  89 /  40  50  40  40                                           
OCF  73  90  71  90 /  40  50  40  40                                           
&&                                                                              
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
AM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TRABERT/DEESE                                                                   
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
1000 AM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...NO CHANGES TO FCST REQUIRED SINCE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE                 
GRIDS ESSENTIALLY MADE NO DIFFERENCE IN VERBIAGE FOR ZONES. RADAR               
AND SATELLITE DEPICT A VORT MAX MOVING OVER THE FL PANHNDL THIS                 
MORNING WITHIN SLY LLVL FLOW. RUC CARRIES THIS FEATURE EAST THEN                
NE THIS AFTN INTO THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND WRN SE GA PORTION OF OUR              
CWA. EXCEPT FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LINGERING ACRS THE FAR NRN                   
TIER...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL GIVE                      
SUFFICIENT TIME FOR HEATING TO REACH MAX TEMPS IN THE LWR 90S. THE              
MORNING SOUNDING SUGGESTS CAPES WILL BE ARND 3500 J/KG DURING MAX               
HEATING. PWAT IS 2.11 INCHES. THEREFORE EXPECT A FEW STRONG STORMS              
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. WILL KEEP A NW TO                
SE POP DISTRIBUTION FOR 50% NW TO 30% SE.                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...FOG HAS LIFTED AT TAF SITES AND VFR CONDS WILL                      
CONTINUE UNTIL TS APPROACHES IN THE AFTN. HAVE TEMPO GROUPS FOR                 
TS PRODUCING MVFR CONDS AFTER 20Z BEGINNING AT FL TAF SITES AND                 
CONTINUING UNTIL 02Z AT SSI.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...NO HEADLINES. BUOYS HAVE BEEN REPORTING SOUTH WINDS NEAR              
10 KT AND A LITTLE HIGHER IN GA WATERS. SEAS ARE RUNNING 2 FT.                  
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
AMG  90  71  89  69 /  50  40  50  30                                           
SSI  88  75  87  74 /  40  40  50  40                                           
JAX  91  72  89  73 /  40  30  50  40                                           
SGJ  89  74  88  74 /  30  30  40  30                                           
GNV  91  72  89  71 /  40  40  50  40                                           
OCF  92  72  89  72 /  40  30  40  30                                           
&&                                                                              
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
AM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MKT                                                                             
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL                                      
814 PM CDT SAT SEP 15 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WILL MAKE SOME FINE-TUNING TO THE GOING FCST FOR TONIGHT. MAIN                  
ISSUES WILL BE LOCATION AND AMOUNT OF POPS.                                     
SHORWAVE MOVG ACRS SWRN CWA ATTM WITH ATTENDING -SHRA/SHRA. KDVN 88D            
REFLECTIVITY SUGGESTS VORT CIRCULATION IS APPROX 20 MI SSE KFFL...OR            
ABOUT 1 HR FASTER THAN...AND 50 MI S OF...THE RUC SOLN.                         
AREA OF PCPN EXTENDS AS FAR N AS I-80 CORRIDOR IN WRN CWA. IN SPITE             
OF RELATIVELY DRY LOWER LEVELS ACRS OUR CWA...THIS WHOLE AREA OF                
PCPN IS MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY LONGER THAN EXPECTED. ONE POSSIBLE            
CAUSE IS HIGHER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AS INDICATED BY THE 00Z KDVN                 
SOUNDING. SOME OF THE PCPN IS EVAPORATING...HOWEVER...BUT IS STILL              
REACHING THE GROUND ESCPLY UNDERNEATH THE HIGHER REFLECTIVITY ECHOES.           
VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST THAT MOST OF ANY THUNDER THAT             
DOES OCCUR SHOULD STAY S OF OUR CWA. THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED                 
THUNDER ACRS THE FAR S SO WILL REFLECT THIS THINKING IN THE FCST.               
&&                                                                              
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IA...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
50                                                                              
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
1246 PM CDT SAT SEP 15 2007                                                     
.AVIATION...18Z.                                                                
MCS OVER EASTERN KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE THUNDER NEAR OR                
AT THE KCNU AIRPORT. WILL INDICATE SUCH THERE. ELSEWHERE MOST                   
CEILINGS AT 5000 FEET BUT THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF 800 FEET THAT                
EXTENDS FROM KEWK TO KSLN BEHIND THE STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED               
WITH THE MCS.                                                                   
THE MCS SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST AND DIMINISH LATE THIS                  
EVENING. OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER MCS IS POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN KANSAS                
WHICH WOULD MOVE EAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. HAVE INDICATED THIS                  
POSSIBILITY IN THE TAFS INDICATING CB.                                          
COOK                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1203 PM CDT SAT SEP 15 2007/                        
UPDATE...                                                                       
MCS CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS. THIS CONTINUES TO                
BE SUPPORTED BY THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOTED ON THE                   
305K...310K...AND 315K ISENTROPIC SURFACES. CURRENT TRENDS                      
INDICATE A MUCH COOLER DAY FOR TODAY THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.                  
HAVE THEREFORE UPDATED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND EVENING IN THE              
GRIDS.                                                                          
COOK                                                                            
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 914 AM CDT SAT SEP 15 2007/                          
UPDATE...                                                                       
MCS MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE THIS               
MORNING. 12Z RUC INDICATES CONTINUED MOISTURE TRANSPORT                         
THHROUGHOUT THE DAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM INTACT. HAVE                   
THEREFORE UPDATED THE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT/POP/QPF GRIDS TO                     
INDICATE SUCH.                                                                  
COOK                                                                            
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 720 AM CDT SAT SEP 15 2007/                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
FOR THE 12Z TAF SUITE...STRONG MID-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE          
TO SUPPORT ELEVATED CONVECTION THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS FROM              
CENTRAL KANSAS ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS AND INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST            
KANSAS. THE MOIST ASCENT ROOTED AROUND 700MB HAS RESULTED IN CAPE               
VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. DRIER AIR BELOW THIS LEVEL WILL LIMIT THE              
LOWEST CIGS IN THE RAIN AREAS TO THE MVFR CATEGORY FOR THE MOST                 
PART...WITH MVFR VSBYS ALSO EXPECTED IN THE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.            
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOUTH             
WINDS INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS AGAIN                  
POSSIBLE IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST VALID                            
PERIOD...THOUGH HAVE OMITTED MENTION NOW TO THE LOW PROBABILITY OF              
OCCURRENCE.                                                                     
KED                                                                             
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT SAT SEP 15 2007/                          
SYNOPSIS...                                                                     
MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS A STALLED CUTOFF/CLOSED LOW OVER                
NORTHWEST CA/SOUTHWEST OR. AT THE SURFACE...MASSIVE POLAR HIGH                  
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EASE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST...IN WAKE OF            
A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PROGRESSING ACROSS THE                            
EASTERN...SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN CONUS. INCREASING WARM/MOIST                
ADVECTION IN THE 800-600MB LAYER IS RESULTING IN SHOWERS/EMBEDDED               
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN NE/NORTHWEST KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING.           
KLEINSASSER                                                                     
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS FOCUS AROUND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM                   
CHANCES TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...THEN AGAIN TUESDAY THROUGH               
WEDNESDAY.                                                                      
STRONG WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IN THE 800-600MB LAYER SWEEPING ACROSS              
THE FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY             
SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING.                  
THINKING BEST CHANCES WILL BE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 54/400 THIS                      
MORNING...WITH CHANCES GENERALLY SHIFTING TO EASTERN KANSAS FOR THIS            
AFTERNOON. GIVEN 500-1000 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE...THINKING SMALL                
HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS             
DUE TO A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER.                                                   
MODELS INDICATE MORE DECENT 850-650 WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AND                    
ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATER TONIGHT...SO INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE                
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT GENERALLY EAST OF I-135. THINKING CHANCES WILL              
LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.                                                  
BY MONDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC NORTHWEST CUTOFF/CLOSED LOW              
WILL FINALLY KICK EAST...AS IT PHASES WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING            
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. CONSEQUENTLY...SOUTHERLY FLOW              
AND TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE BY SUNDAY/MONDAY.                                
AREA STILL ANTICIPATED TO RECEIVE A GLANCING BLOW FROM SHORTWAVE                
ENERGY ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY            
IMPINGING ON NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. NOT TERRIBLY              
EXCITED ABOUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...BUT IT             
CERTAINLY REMAINS POSSIBLE GIVEN PROXIMITY OF BOUNDARY AND GLANCING             
BLOW OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.               
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE             
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND...AS A              
DEEP TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...ALLOWING FOR MID/UPPER              
RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS.                              
KLEINSASSER                                                                     
AVIATION...                                                                     
EXPECT 6K TO 8K FOOT CEILINGS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION                     
OVERNIGHT AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO OVERRUN THE SHALLOW                
COOL AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS SUGGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT             
WILL INCREASE VERY EARLY IN THE MORNING IN SOUTHWEST KS...WITH THIS             
LIFT MOVING OVER MOST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK. THIS LIFT WILL HELP              
SATURATE THE LOWER LAYERS AND STEEPEN LAPSE RATES ENOUGH FOR A SHRA             
AND ISOLATED TSRA CHANCE BEGINNING AFTER 09Z. WILL INCLUDE A VCTS               
CHANCE IN THE KRSL/KSLN AND KICT TAFS.                                          
EPS/BDK                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    69  61  88  67 /  20  20  10  10                                
HUTCHINSON      69  60  89  67 /  40  10  10  10                                
NEWTON          68  60  88  66 /  90  20  10  10                                
ELDORADO        68  60  88  67 /  90  20  20  10                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   69  61  88  67 /  30  20  10   0                                
RUSSELL         73  59  90  66 /  30  10  10  10                                
GREAT BEND      73  59  90  66 /  20  10  10  10                                
SALINA          68  60  89  67 / 100  10  10  10                                
MCPHERSON       69  60  89  66 /  90  10  10  10                                
COFFEYVILLE     64  60  85  67 /  90  20  20   0                                
CHANUTE         61  59  85  67 / 100  20  20  10                                
IOLA            60  59  85  67 / 100  20  20  10                                
PARSONS-KPPF    62  60  85  67 / 100  20  20  10                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
1203 PM CDT SAT SEP 15 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MCS CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS. THIS CONTINUES TO                
BE SUPPORTED BY THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOTED ON THE                   
305K...310K...AND 315K ISENTROPIC SURFACES. CURRENT TRENDS                      
INDICATE A MUCH COOLER DAY FOR TODAY THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.                  
HAVE THEREFORE UPDATED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND EVENING IN THE              
GRIDS.                                                                          
COOK                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 914 AM CDT SAT SEP 15 2007/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
MCS MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE THIS               
MORNING. 12Z RUC INDICATES CONTINUED MOISTURE TRANSPORT                         
THHROUGHOUT THE DAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM INTACT. HAVE                   
THEREFORE UPDATED THE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT/POP/QPF GRIDS TO                     
INDICATE SUCH.                                                                  
COOK                                                                            
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 720 AM CDT SAT SEP 15 2007/                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
FOR THE 12Z TAF SUITE...STRONG MID-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE          
TO SUPPORT ELEVATED CONVECTION THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS FROM              
CENTRAL KANSAS ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS AND INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST            
KANSAS. THE MOIST ASCENT ROOTED AROUND 700MB HAS RESULTED IN CAPE               
VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. DRIER AIR BELOW THIS LEVEL WILL LIMIT THE              
LOWEST CIGS IN THE RAIN AREAS TO THE MVFR CATEGORY FOR THE MOST                 
PART...WITH MVFR VSBYS ALSO EXPECTED IN THE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.            
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOUTH             
WINDS INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS AGAIN                  
POSSIBLE IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST VALID                            
PERIOD...THOUGH HAVE OMITTED MENTION NOW TO THE LOW PROBABILITY OF              
OCCURRENCE.                                                                     
KED                                                                             
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT SAT SEP 15 2007/                          
SYNOPSIS...                                                                     
MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS A STALLED CUTOFF/CLOSED LOW OVER                
NORTHWEST CA/SOUTHWEST OR. AT THE SURFACE...MASSIVE POLAR HIGH                  
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EASE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST...IN WAKE OF            
A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PROGRESSING ACROSS THE                            
EASTERN...SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN CONUS. INCREASING WARM/MOIST                
ADVECTION IN THE 800-600MB LAYER IS RESULTING IN SHOWERS/EMBEDDED               
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN NE/NORTHWEST KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING.           
KLEINSASSER                                                                     
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS FOCUS AROUND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM                   
CHANCES TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...THEN AGAIN TUESDAY THROUGH               
WEDNESDAY.                                                                      
STRONG WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IN THE 800-600MB LAYER SWEEPING ACROSS              
THE FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY             
SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING.                  
THINKING BEST CHANCES WILL BE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 54/400 THIS                      
MORNING...WITH CHANCES GENERALLY SHIFTING TO EASTERN KANSAS FOR THIS            
AFTERNOON. GIVEN 500-1000 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE...THINKING SMALL                
HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS             
DUE TO A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER.                                                   
MODELS INDICATE MORE DECENT 850-650 WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AND                    
ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATER TONIGHT...SO INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE                
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT GENERALLY EAST OF I-135. THINKING CHANCES WILL              
LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.                                                  
BY MONDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC NORTHWEST CUTOFF/CLOSED LOW              
WILL FINALLY KICK EAST...AS IT PHASES WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING            
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. CONSEQUENTLY...SOUTHERLY FLOW              
AND TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE BY SUNDAY/MONDAY.                                
AREA STILL ANTICIPATED TO RECEIVE A GLANCING BLOW FROM SHORTWAVE                
ENERGY ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY            
IMPINGING ON NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. NOT TERRIBLY              
EXCITED ABOUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...BUT IT             
CERTAINLY REMAINS POSSIBLE GIVEN PROXIMITY OF BOUNDARY AND GLANCING             
BLOW OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.               
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE             
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND...AS A              
DEEP TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...ALLOWING FOR MID/UPPER              
RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS.                              
KLEINSASSER                                                                     
AVIATION...                                                                     
EXPECT 6K TO 8K FOOT CEILINGS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION                     
OVERNIGHT AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO OVERRUN THE SHALLOW                
COOL AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS SUGGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT             
WILL INCREASE VERY EARLY IN THE MORNING IN SOUTHWEST KS...WITH THIS             
LIFT MOVING OVER MOST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK. THIS LIFT WILL HELP              
SATURATE THE LOWER LAYERS AND STEEPEN LAPSE RATES ENOUGH FOR A SHRA             
AND ISOLATED TSRA CHANCE BEGINNING AFTER 09Z. WILL INCLUDE A VCTS               
CHANCE IN THE KRSL/KSLN AND KICT TAFS.                                          
EPS/BDK                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    69  61  88  67 /  20  20  10  10                                
HUTCHINSON      69  60  89  67 /  40  10  10  10                                
NEWTON          68  60  88  66 /  90  20  10  10                                
ELDORADO        68  60  88  67 /  90  20  20  10                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   69  61  88  67 /  30  20  10   0                                
RUSSELL         73  59  90  66 /  30  10  10  10                                
GREAT BEND      73  59  90  66 /  20  10  10  10                                
SALINA          68  60  89  67 / 100  10  10  10                                
MCPHERSON       69  60  89  66 /  90  10  10  10                                
COFFEYVILLE     64  60  85  67 /  90  20  20   0                                
CHANUTE         61  59  85  67 / 100  20  20  10                                
IOLA            60  59  85  67 / 100  20  20  10                                
PARSONS-KPPF    62  60  85  67 / 100  20  20  10                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
914 AM CDT SAT SEP 15 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MCS MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE THIS               
MORNING. 12Z RUC INDICATES CONTINUED MOISTURE TRANSPORT                         
THHROUGHOUT THE DAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM INTACT. HAVE                   
THEREFORE UPDATED THE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT/POP/QPF GRIDS TO                     
INDICATE SUCH.                                                                  
KRC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 720 AM CDT SAT SEP 15 2007/                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
FOR THE 12Z TAF SUITE...STRONG MID-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE          
TO SUPPORT ELEVATED CONVECTION THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS FROM              
CENTRAL KANSAS ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS AND INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST            
KANSAS. THE MOIST ASCENT ROOTED AROUND 700MB HAS RESULTED IN CAPE               
VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. DRIER AIR BELOW THIS LEVEL WILL LIMIT THE              
LOWEST CIGS IN THE RAIN AREAS TO THE MVFR CATEGORY FOR THE MOST                 
PART...WITH MVFR VSBYS ALSO EXPECTED IN THE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.            
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOUTH             
WINDS INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS AGAIN                  
POSSIBLE IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST VALID                            
PERIOD...THOUGH HAVE OMITTED MENTION NOW TO THE LOW PROBABILITY OF              
OCCURRENCE.                                                                     
KED                                                                             
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT SAT SEP 15 2007/                          
SYNOPSIS...                                                                     
MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS A STALLED CUTOFF/CLOSED LOW OVER                
NORTHWEST CA/SOUTHWEST OR. AT THE SURFACE...MASSIVE POLAR HIGH                  
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EASE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST...IN WAKE OF            
A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PROGRESSING ACROSS THE                            
EASTERN...SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN CONUS. INCREASING WARM/MOIST                
ADVECTION IN THE 800-600MB LAYER IS RESULTING IN SHOWERS/EMBEDDED               
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN NE/NORTHWEST KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING.           
KLEINSASSER                                                                     
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS FOCUS AROUND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM                   
CHANCES TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...THEN AGAIN TUESDAY THROUGH               
WEDNESDAY.                                                                      
STRONG WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IN THE 800-600MB LAYER SWEEPING ACROSS              
THE FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY             
SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING.                  
THINKING BEST CHANCES WILL BE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 54/400 THIS                      
MORNING...WITH CHANCES GENERALLY SHIFTING TO EASTERN KANSAS FOR THIS            
AFTERNOON. GIVEN 500-1000 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE...THINKING SMALL                
HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS             
DUE TO A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER.                                                   
MODELS INDICATE MORE DECENT 850-650 WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AND                    
ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATER TONIGHT...SO INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE                
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT GENERALLY EAST OF I-135. THINKING CHANCES WILL              
LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.                                                  
BY MONDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC NORTHWEST CUTOFF/CLOSED LOW              
WILL FINALLY KICK EAST...AS IT PHASES WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING            
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. CONSEQUENTLY...SOUTHERLY FLOW              
AND TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE BY SUNDAY/MONDAY.                                
AREA STILL ANTICIPATED TO RECEIVE A GLANCING BLOW FROM SHORTWAVE                
ENERGY ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY            
IMPINGING ON NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. NOT TERRIBLY              
EXCITED ABOUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...BUT IT             
CERTAINLY REMAINS POSSIBLE GIVEN PROXIMITY OF BOUNDARY AND GLANCING             
BLOW OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.               
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE             
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND...AS A              
DEEP TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...ALLOWING FOR MID/UPPER              
RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS.                              
KLEINSASSER                                                                     
AVIATION...                                                                     
EXPECT 6K TO 8K FOOT CEILINGS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION                     
OVERNIGHT AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO OVERRUN THE SHALLOW                
COOL AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS SUGGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT             
WILL INCREASE VERY EARLY IN THE MORNING IN SOUTHWEST KS...WITH THIS             
LIFT MOVING OVER MOST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK. THIS LIFT WILL HELP              
SATURATE THE LOWER LAYERS AND STEEPEN LAPSE RATES ENOUGH FOR A SHRA             
AND ISOLATED TSRA CHANCE BEGINNING AFTER 09Z. WILL INCLUDE A VCTS               
CHANCE IN THE KRSL/KSLN AND KICT TAFS.                                          
EPS/BDK                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    73  62  88  67 /  50  20  10  10                                
HUTCHINSON      73  61  89  67 /  70  10  10  10                                
NEWTON          72  61  88  66 /  90  20  10  10                                
ELDORADO        72  61  88  67 /  80  20  20  10                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   74  62  88  67 /  20  20  10   0                                
RUSSELL         73  60  90  66 /  70  10  10  10                                
GREAT BEND      74  60  90  66 /  60  10  10  10                                
SALINA          71  61  89  67 / 100  20  10  10                                
MCPHERSON       72  61  89  66 / 100  20  10  10                                
COFFEYVILLE     71  61  85  67 /  20  20  20   0                                
CHANUTE         70  60  85  67 /  60  20  20  10                                
IOLA            69  60  85  67 /  90  20  20  10                                
PARSONS-KPPF    71  61  85  67 /  20  20  20  10                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                             
730 AM CDT FRI SEP 14 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MINOR UPDATE TO ADDRESS TRANSITIONAL SENSIBLE WEATHER TRENDS IN                 
ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.                                              
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CURRENT SHOWERS ON TRACK TO EXIT WESTERN KENTUCKY BEFORE 1 PM...SO              
LITTLE MODIFICATION MADE TO COVERAGE/PROBABILITY OF SHOWER                      
ACTIVITY THIS MORNING. THE STRATUS /MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS                       
DISCUSSION/ AND PATCHY FOG CONTINUES TO BE ON THE MOVE THIS                     
MORNING AND SHOULD THIN OUT ACROSS MOST AREAS NO LATER THAN 15Z                 
/10 AM/. THE SECOND WAVE OF CLOUD COVER WILL SHOW UP AS THE                     
FRONTAL ZONE APPROACHES THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. THIS MAY RETARD            
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY...BUT STILL BELIEVE LOW TO MID 80S POSSIBLE.              
THE LATEST GFS MOS/LAMP GUIDANCE SHOW MID 80S STILL LIKELY...WHILE              
THE COOLER ETA/NGM MOS GUIDANCE HOLD TEMPERATURES NEAR THE 80                   
DEGREE MARK THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE A RACE TO SEE IF COLD AIR                
ADVECTION TEMPERS MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY.                                       
MINOR TEMPORAL/SPATIAL ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO WIND GUSTS AND                  
MANUALLY EDITED INTO ZONE FORECAST PACKAGE.                                     
AS AN ADDITIONAL ITEM NOT INCLUDED IN THE ORIGINAL DISCUSSION                   
EARLIER THIS MORNING...THE MAJORITY OF THE WEATHER SYSTEMS IN THE               
SHORT TERM WILL BE PUSHED INTO THE WESTERN COAST AND RIDE ACROSS A              
MEAN RIDGE. MAJOR PIVOT POINT FOR CYCLONIC FLOW RECENTLY IN THE                 
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WAS LOCATED NEAR 178 DEGREES WEST/65 DEGREES                
NORTH...WITH ANTICYCLONIC COUNTERPART NEAR 110W/28N.                            
WITH RESPECT TO MODEL GUIDANCE PREFERENCES WITH MORNING                         
PACKAGE...LEANED TOWARD A RUC/NAM/ECMWF BLEND IN THE SHORT TERM                 
AND A ECMWF/GFS BLEND IN THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST.                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT FRI SEP 14 2007/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM THE REMNANTS OF HUMBERTO DEVELOPING                
OVER THE SERN PORTION OF THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA ALONG THE                    
DEFORMATION ZONE ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE TROUGH/LOW. THIS                     
FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE                     
MORNING HOURS...KEEPING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN LIMITED TO THE                 
WRN KY/WRN TN BORDER COUNTIES. ANY MEASURABLE RAIN SHOULD EXIT THE              
REST OF THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA BY AFTERNOON.                                 
FOR TODAY...THERE WILL BE TRANSITIONAL ZONE ALONG AND IN ADVANCE                
OF THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT...WHERE FRONTAL COMPRESSION               
AND INSOLATION WILL LEAD TO A NARROW ZONE OF WARMER THAN NORMAL                 
TEMPERATURES /MID 80S/ IN A SW TO NELY FASHION ACROSS THE WFO PAH               
FORECAST AREA TODAY. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRATUS                     
DEVELOPMENT IN THE WAKE OF THE BAROCLINIC LEAF CLOUD DECK BETWEEN               
12-14Z THIS MORNING...BUT THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD BURN OFF ACROSS               
SERN MO/SRN IL/SWRN IN. THE NEXT BATCH OF CLOUD COVER SHOULD                    
ARRIVE ALONG THE 800-600 MB FRONTAL SLOPE...WHERE PARCELS WILL                  
CONTINUE TO BE LIFTED WITH MEAGER MOISTURE AVAILABLE. THERE WAS                 
SOME UNCERTAINTY WHETHER OPAQUE CLOUD COVER PERCENTAGE WOULD REACH              
THE LEVEL OF MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE WFO PAH                
FORECAST AREA AROUND THE NOON HOUR...BUT AT THIS TIME I DECIDED TO              
ERR ON LESSER CLOUD COVER AS MOISTURE DECREASES WITH TIME. I                    
ATTEMPTED TO DISPLAY THE TRANSITION IN CLOUD COVER FROM THE                     
DEPARTING CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE FROM HUMBERTO                 
AND THE MOISTURE TIED WITH THE SHARP TROUGH MOVING IN WITH THE                  
FRONT FROM THE NORTH.                                                           
THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE NWLY WIND GUSTS BETWEEN                    
18-22 KNOTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY                
LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE GUSTS MAY LINGER              
INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE WFO PAH              
FORECAST AREA. PURE EXTRAPOLATION PLACES THE AXIS OF THE 700 MB                 
FRONT INTO THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA BY 20Z...WHICH SHOULD HERALD               
THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE CLOUD COVER/WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE                     
FORECAST AREA.                                                                  
THE NEXT CHALLENGE IN THE FORECAST WILL BE THE CLOSED LOW FOUND                 
ALONG THE NRN CA COAST AT 00Z FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL RIDE A LOW              
AMPLITUDE RIDGE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...DEVELOPING INTO A                  
SMALL WAVE IN MODIFIED NWLY FLOW OVER THE MID MS VALLEY SATURDAY                
EVENING. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME LIFT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH               
THIS FEATURE...ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF              
THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA. I CANNOT RULE OUT SPRINKLES OVER SERN                
MO/SRN IL/SWRN IN...BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 7 AM ON SUNDAY...BUT AT                
THIS TIME...BELIEVE THE GREATEST CHANGE FOR THE AREA WILL JUST BE               
AN TEMPORARY INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. I PREFER THE ECMWF/SREF                   
SOLUTION VS. THE 12KM NAM/40 KM GFS WITH THIS SYSTEM.                           
OTHER THAN THE THE PASSAGE OF THE SATURDAY NIGHT WEATHER SYSTEM TO              
THE NORTH OF THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA...DRY CONDITION SHOULD                   
PREVAIL THROUGH MIDWEEK. SOME NOTICEABLE ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO               
THE SATURDAY MAX TEMPERATURES AND SUNDAY MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES TO                
ACCOUNT FOR THE DRIER AIR INTRUSION AND MAXIMIZED INSOLATION. I DO              
HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT DEWPOINTS MAY STILL BE A LITTLE TOO HIGH ON              
SATURDAY /SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION/...BUT WILL WAIT AND SEE.                 
NO ALTERATIONS MADE TO FORECAST BEYOND TUESDAY WITH THIS PACKAGE.               
AVIATION...                                                                     
AT 07Z...THE NRN LIMITS OF TROPICALLY BASED HUMBERTO MOISTURE HAD               
MANAGED TO WORK ITS WAY INTO/ACROSS THE SRN 1/2 OF TWEB ROUTE                   
232...AND EXTENDED NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE PENNYRILE OF WKY. VFR              
CIGS THE RULE BUT ISOLD IFR CIGS WITH MVFR VSBYS IN -SHRA/BR WAS                
NUDGING INTO THE BOOTHEEL JUST SOUTH OF CGI...WHERE THE NOSE OF 60+F            
SURFACE TDS HAD PUSHED. COLD FRONT TO THE NW WAS LOCATED FROM SGI IL            
TO UIN TO MCI MO. THE RAPIDLY MOVING FRONT WILL DRIVE ACROSS THE PAH            
FLIGHT AREA EARLY IN THE DAY...EFFECTIVELY AIDING THE EWARD                     
TRANSLATION OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE TO POINTS EAST OF OUR TAF SITES AND        
FLIGHT ROUTES. THEREFORE WILL ONLY CARRY BRIEF EARLY MORNING MENTION            
FOR AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS IN TAFS AND SRN 1/2 TWEB 232/FAR ERN              
TWEB 236...AFTER WHICH FROPA SHIFTS SLYS TO NWLYS ALBEIT W/GUSTS TO             
NR 20 KTS ON THE MIX DOWN. BY LATE IN THE FLIGHT FORECAST...ANY                 
LINGERING FRONTAL/POST FRONTAL VFR CIGS SHOULD BE SCOURED/SCOURING              
OUT TO SCT/SKC W/DIMINISHING WINDS AND P6SM FOR THE EXTENDED                    
PLANNING PERIOD.                                                                
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE DEGREE OF DRY AIR INTRUSION DURING                 
THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE DEGREE OF VERTICAL MIXING AND ADVECTION                
OF LOWER DEWPOINTS SUGGESTED BY THE 00Z FRI 12KM NAM AND 21Z THU                
SREF LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THAT MY SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY STILL BE                 
TOO HIGH. THIS COULD LEAD TO MINIMUM DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITY                  
VALUES IN SRN IL TOWARD THE MO BOOTHEEL DROPPING INTO THE UPPER                 
TEENS OR LOWER 20S SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LUCKILY...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD             
BE LOW ENOUGH TO REDUCE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONCERNS. LATER                    
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR UPSTREAM DEWPOINT TRENDS.                           
&&                                                                              
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT/LONG TERM...SMITH                                                         
AVIATION...DH                                                                   
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
725 PM EDT SAT SEP 15 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUN)...                                                
TEMPS AND FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT ARE THE MAIN FCST ISSUES.                     
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW INTO THE GREAT                
LAKES BTWN A RIDGE OVER SW CANADA AND A TROF OVER ERN CANADA. A                 
SHORTWAVE IS HEADING SE THRU MANITOBA...BUT IT IS PRODUCING NOTHING             
MORE THAN SOME CI OVER NRN MN INTO WRN UPPER MI AND ADJACENT                    
ONTARIO. CLOSER TO HOME...STRATOCU QUICKLY DEVELOPED THIS MORNING               
OVER THE W AND NCNTRL FCST AREA SOON AFTER SUNRISE. THOSE CLOUDS                
HAVE RAPIDLY DISSIPATED IN THE LAST FEW HRS AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE               
MIXED OUT AND WAA REGIME BEGAN.                                                 
HIGH PRES CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL               
MOVE TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY SUN MORNING. WITH THE HIGH MOVING              
FARTHER AWAY...TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING                 
NIGHT AS SW WINDS INCREASE BTWN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A LOW PRES               
TROUGH DROPPING S THRU ONTARIO. OF COURSE...MOST OF THE INCREASE IN             
WINDS WILL OCCUR JUST OFF THE SFC AS NOCTURNAL INVERSION DEVELOPS.              
STILL...ENOUGH MECHANICAL MIXING WILL OCCUR TO KEEP THE WIND                    
STIRRING A BIT AT THE SFC. IN THIS SITUATION...THE SCNTRL FCST AREA             
SHOULD BE COLDEST WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY TO DECOUPLE QUICKLY THIS            
EVENING BEFORE THE HIGH MOVES FARTHER AWAY. INHERITED FCST LOOKED TO            
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SCENARIO WITH TEMPS AT THE LOWEST AROUND             
35/36F IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS. SOME PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE            
IN THOSE AREAS.                                                                 
NICE WARMUP ON TAP FOR SUN UNDER SW FLOW WITH 850MB TEMPS ABOUT 7C              
HIGHER SUN AFTN THAN THIS AFTN. OTHER THAN SOME CI AT TIMES AND                 
MAYBE SOME SCT CU IN THE AFTN...THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.             
MIXING TO AROUND 800MB ON NAM/GFS FCST SOUNDINGS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS              
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S WHICH IS CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS.              
.LONG TERM (SUN NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SAT)...                                      
SUN NIGHT INTO MON...THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REMAINS UNDER            
A WARM ADVECTION PERIOD DURING THIS PERIOD...DUE TO TROUGHING OVER              
THE WESTERN U.S. PUSHING EASTWARD. SUN NIGHT AT THIS POINT APPEARS              
TO BE DRY WITH THE DRY AIRMASS FROM SUN FIRMLY IN PLACE. STRONGEST              
WARM ADVECTION TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF PCPN APPEARS TO BE OVER            
WESTERN MINNESOTA SUN NIGHT. HOWEVER...ON MON...THIS STRONGEST WARM             
ADVECTION ZONE SHIFTS INTO UPPER MICHIGAN WITH 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING             
FROM 10-12C AT 12Z MON TO AROUND 16C AT 00Z TUE. IN ADDITION...A                
SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO EJECT OUT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH...MOVING INTO              
NE MN AT 00Z TUE. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SHRTWV AND THE WARM                   
ADVECTION MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL              
MN INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/WESTERN UPPER MI MON AFTERNOON AS                 
INDICATED BY THE GFS/UKMET...AND THUS HAVE INCLUDED POPS FOR THIS.              
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...PRECIPITABLE WATER BETWEEN 0.50-0.60 INCH AND A            
GENERAL S TO SW WIND SUPPORTS HAVING MID 40S TEMPS INLAND (SHOWN BY             
MET/MAV AND BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE). ALTHOUGH 850MB TEMPS BECOME               
QUITE WARM ON MON...INCREASING CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN               
U.P...MAY HAMPER THOSE WARM TEMPS FROM BEING REALIZED. MAV GUIDANCE             
VALUES SEEM REASONABLE BASED ON THE CLOUD COVER AND WIND FORECAST.              
MON NIGHT INTO TUE...SHRTWV RESPONSIBLE FOR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR               
CONVECTION MON AFTERNOON WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON NIGHT...                  
REACHING NE ONTARIO 12Z TUE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD                   
ACCOMPANY THE SHRTWV...SUPPORTED BY WARM ADVECTION. THUS...CHANCE               
POPS FOR MON NIGHT LOOK GOOD...THOUGH HAVE INCLUDED A DIMINISHING               
TREND AFTER 06Z OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA. ON                   
TUE...MORE SHRTWVS...INCLUDING THE MAIN PIECE OF SHRTWV ENERGY FROM             
THE WESTERN TROUGH (CURRENTLY IN NW CALIFORNIA ON WATER VAPOR)...               
WILL BE LIFTING ALONG THE SAME PATH THE PREVIOUS SHRTWV TOOK DUE TO             
SW FLOW ALOFT. ALONG THIS PATH...GFS/NAM/UKMET INDICATE PRECIPITABLE            
WATER OF 1.5-1.75 INCHES...SUGGESTING CONTINUED BOUTS OF CONVECTION             
AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE                  
CONFINED TO AREAS FROM CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NW WI AND WEST.               
HOWEVER...HAVE INCLUDED POPS FOR THE WESTERN U.P....AND ESPECIALLY              
IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY            
EAST. TEMPERATURES MON NIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY WARM...THANKS TO                  
INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND A BREEZY SOUTH WIND. FOLLOWED THE WARMER               
MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS. TUES HIGHS ARE TRICKY...ESPECIALLY SINCE                 
850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN AROUND 16C. IF FULL SUN COULD BE              
REALIZED...THE RECORD HIGH FOR THE OFFICE WOULD BE IN JEOPARDY.                 
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE SHRTWVS WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF CLOUD                   
COVER...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST TO PREVENT RECORD HIGHS FROM                     
OCCURRING. NONETHELESS... READINGS SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE             
70S...WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOW 80S WHERE MORE SUN OCCURS.                         
TUE NIGHT THROUGH SAT...ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET AND LOCAL WRF-ARW              
RUNS ARE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE UPPER FLOW                  
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE               
U.S. AND RIDGING TO ITS EAST. TOWARDS THU...THE WESTERN TROUGH                  
APPEARS TO SPLIT INTO TWO. THE 00Z/06Z/12Z GFS ALL INDICATE THAT                
AFTER THE SPLIT...THE FLOW MAY TRY TO TAKE A MORE NW ORIENTATION                
OVER CANADA AND THE NORTHERN U.S...SUGGESTIVE OF COOLER AIR.                    
HOWEVER...THE CANADIAN/UKMET/LOCAL WRF-ARW AND PAST ECMWF RUNS ALL              
INDICATE THAT THE FLOW WILL TURN MAINLY ZONAL ACROSS SOUTHERN                   
CANADA...RESULTING IN MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS LIKE AN INDIAN SUMMER.             
PER HPC...HAVE CONSIDERED THE GFS RUNS OUTLIERS AND FOLLOWED THE 00Z            
ECMWF IDEA.                                                                     
AS FAR AS THE DETAILS GO...THE MAIN PIECE OF SHRTWV ENERGY LOCATED              
OVER MN AT 00Z WED WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AT 12Z WED             
AND THEN UP TO JAMES BAY AT 00Z THU. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE                     
SHRTWV...THE BEST FORCING FOR PCPN IS OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE U.P.            
THROUGH WED MORNING. THUS HIGHEST POPS ARE SITUATED THERE.                      
AGAIN...SOME HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN U.P. GIVEN             
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER. A SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE               
SHRTWV WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WED...THUS MEANING TUE NIGHT SHOULD BE            
PRETTY WARM IN THE SW FLOW AHEAD OF IT. IN FACT...EVEN BEHIND THE               
FRONT...850MB TEMPS REMAIN AROUND 12C...SUGGESTING THE COOL DOWN                
WILL NOT BE TOO SIGNIFICANT ON WED. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE STRENGTH             
OF THE SURFACE LOW...WITH THE NEW 12Z ECMWF SHOWING A WRAPPED UP LOW            
DUE TO A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHRTWV COMING THROUGH. IF THIS COMES TO              
FRUITION...ALL THE WIND FORECASTS WILL NEED TO BE BUMPED UP                     
CONSIDERABLY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN            
ONTARIO WED NIGHT AND THU...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO               
THE AREA...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A DRY PERIOD DURING THIS                
TIME. 850MB TEMPS STILL NEAR 12C SUGGEST CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL                 
TEMPS...WITH ONLY COOLING EXPECTED NEAR THE GREAT LAKES SHORES WITH             
LAKE BREEZES.                                                                   
WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION THU NIGHT INTO FRI SUGGESTS THE NEED FOR               
SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY 00Z SAT...THE ECMWF              
SHOWS 850MB DEWPOINTS CLIMBING TO 12-14C...AFTER BEING BETWEEN -10              
TO -15C AT 00Z THU. THUS CONDITIONS PROBABLY WILL BECOME A BIT                  
HUMID...SURPRISING AFTER THE RECENT COOL DOWN. 00Z                              
ECMWF/CANADIAN/LOCAL WRF-ARW RUN ALL SUGGEST THE WARM FRONT MAY GET             
STUCK OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT AND SAT. FOR                     
NOW...HAVE DECIDED TO CONFINE POPS TO THE NORTHERN U.P. AND LAKE                
SUPERIOR FOR FRI NIGHT...THEN HAVE A DRY SAT. SHOULD STILL BE FAIRLY            
MILD INTO SAT. NEW 12Z ECMWF ACTUALLY SHOWS THE FRONT HEADING BACK              
SOUTH ON SAT...BUT WILL WAIT UNTIL TOMORROW BEFORE CHANGING TO THIS             
IDEA.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH LLWS BECOMING            
AN ISSUE TONIGHT AND THEN DISSIPATING AFTER SUNRISE WITH WINDS                  
MIXING DOWN AND BECOMING GUSTY IN THE MORNING.                                  
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN HIGH              
PRES MOVING E TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND A LOW PRES TROUGH DROPPING S               
THRU NRN ONTARIO. WHILE SUSTAINED WINDS WILL PROBABLY BE IN THE                 
20-25KT RANGE...AREA OF PRES FALLS PASSING N AND THEN E OF THE LAKE             
MAY SUPPORT 30KT WINDS FOR A TIME...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE KEWEENAW              
AND POINTS N. WINDS SHOULD RELAX SOME SUN AFTN INTO EARLY MON.                  
TUE/WED...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND STRENGTH            
OF A SFC LOW WHICH SHOULD TRACK FROM THE DAKOTAS TO JAMES BAY. A                
PERIOD OF S GALES IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR             
MON NIGHT/TUE AHEAD OF SYSTEM. GREATER UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE                
STRENGTH OF THE NW WINDS BEHIND SYSTEM. THIS FCST ISSUANCE REFLECTS             
A LIGHT NW WIND REGIME WITH EXPECTATION THAT SFC LOW WILL NOT BE                
WRAPPED UP (PER BULK OF FCST MODEL GUIDANCE) AS IT HEADS TO JAMES               
BAY.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON                                                            
LONG TERM...AJ                                                                  
MARINE...ROLFSON                                                                
AVIATION...MICHELS                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
133 PM EDT SAT SEP 15 2007                                                      
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION                                                 
.DISCUSSION (503 AM EDT)...                                                     
MAIN FCST ISSUES INCLUDE DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS/CLOUDS                 
TODAY...THEN OTHERWISE CLOUDS/TEMPS INTO MONDAY.                                
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND 00Z RAOBS INDICATE THAT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH               
HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF THE FCST AREA. BEHIND IT CONFLUENT FLOW HAS              
ALLOWED FOR SFC RIDGE TO BUILD IN FROM MN AND NW WI. INCREASINGLY               
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN RESPONSE TO              
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ARE BREAKING APART LAKE CLOUDS OVER THE WRN              
HALF OF UPR MI AS NOTED ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY IN THE PAST FEW HRS.            
ALSO LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS OVER THE ERN CWA APPEAR TO BE WEAKENING AND            
LESS ORGANIZED ON THE LATEST RADAR LOOP. RUC AND NAM FCST SNDGS ALSO            
SEEM TO BEAR THIS OUT.                                                          
-3C 850 MB TEMPS AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL STILL WARRANT KEEPING SOME               
LOW CHC POPS IN FOR FAR ERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING BUT EXPECT              
THE REST OF THE CWA TO BE DRY AFT 12Z. FLOW BACKING WEST TO                     
SOUTHWEST BY MIDDAY WILL SHUT OFF ANY REMAINING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS.            
850 MB TEMPS WARMING TO 0-2C BY MIDDAY WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO RISE            
INTO THE 55 TO 60F RANGE UNDER FULL SUNSHINE.                                   
THERE IS AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY FOR BEACHES EAST OF            
MARQUETTE WITH NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT BACKING W 10 TO 20 KT BY                     
AFTERNOON. EXPECT WAVES 7 TO 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 6 FT IN THE                
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
RIDGE AXIS SLIDES E OF THE FCST AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY AS SW                   
GRADIENT FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT ON BACKSIDE OF HIGH. MIXING FROM                
INCREASING WIND WILL GENERALLY PREVENT FROST FORMATION TONIGHT...               
EXCEPT FOR COUNTIES ALONG THE WI BDR WHERE DECOUPLING OF WIND WILL              
ALLOW TEMPS TO LOWER INTO THE MID 30S WITH PATCHY FROST AT SOME                 
SHELTERED LOCATIONS.                                                            
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE AS 850 MB TEMPS RISE TO 6-7C ON SUNDAY              
AND 13 TO 15C ON MONDAY. WITH DIURNAL MIXING...LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPS              
MAINLY IN THE 60S ON SUNDAY WITH DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE               
SUPERIOR REACHING INTO THE LOWER 70S. ON MONDAY...LOOK FOR TEMPS                
MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPR 70S WITH SOME LOWER 80S REACHED ALONG THE              
LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
AFTER QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF BKN STRATOCU (3500-4000FT CLOUD BASES)               
AFTER SUNRISE...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOW MIXING OUT NICELY.                    
DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN IS ALSO AIDING THE DISSIPATION OF THE CLOUDS             
FROM W TO E. EXPECT ANY LINGERING SCT STRATOCU TO DISSIPATE AT                  
KCMX/KSAW IN THE NEXT HR OR TWO. AS FOR THE FCST...VFR CONDITIONS               
WILL PREVAIL FOR THE ENTIRE FCST PERIOD WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME              
CIRRUS AT TIMES. INCREASING SW WINDS ABOVE NOCTURNAL INVERSION                  
TONIGHT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE                   
MENTION OF LLWS.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
WINDS DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY             
AND PRES GRADIENT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR RELAXES. DIMINISHING TREND ONLY            
TEMPORARY AS SW FLOW INCREASES QUICKLY TO 20-25KT THIS AFTERNOON AND            
TONIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE E AND A LOW PRES TROUGH DROPS SE               
INTO ONTARIO. PRES FALLS TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKE WITH THE TROUGH               
AND FAVORED CHANNELLING DIRECTION TO WINDS MAY SUPPORT 30 KT OVR                
WEST SECTIONS OF LK SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH SUN NIGHT                
INTO MON. A LOW PRES SYSTEM TRACKING NE INTO ONTARIO TUE WILL BRING             
ANOTHER SYSTEM TO THE AREA. EXACT TRACK OF LOW NOT CERTAIN...BUT                
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR S GALES LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE AND AGAIN LATER            
TUE NIGHT INTO WED OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. AT THE LEAST...30 KT               
SPEEDS SEEM FAIRLY CERTAIN.                                                     
$$                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...VOSS                                                               
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...JLA                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
712 AM EDT SAT SEP 15 2007                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS                                        
.DISCUSSION (503 AM EDT)...                                                     
MAIN FCST ISSUES INCLUDE DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS/CLOUDS                 
TODAY...THEN OTHERWISE CLOUDS/TEMPS INTO MONDAY.                                
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND 00Z RAOBS INDICATE THAT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH               
HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF THE FCST AREA. BEHIND IT CONFLUENT FLOW HAS              
ALLOWED FOR SFC RIDGE TO BUILD IN FROM MN AND NW WI. INCREASINGLY               
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN RESPONSE TO              
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ARE BREAKING APART LAKE CLOUDS OVER THE WRN              
HALF OF UPR MI AS NOTED ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY IN THE PAST FEW HRS.            
ALSO LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS OVER THE ERN CWA APPEAR TO BE WEAKENING AND            
LESS ORGANIZED ON THE LATEST RADAR LOOP. RUC AND NAM FCST SNDGS ALSO            
SEEM TO BEAR THIS OUT.                                                          
-3C 850 MB TEMPS AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL STILL WARRANT KEEPING SOME               
LOW CHC POPS IN FOR FAR ERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING BUT EXPECT              
THE REST OF THE CWA TO BE DRY AFT 12Z. FLOW BACKING WEST TO                     
SOUTHWEST BY MIDDAY WILL SHUT OFF ANY REMAINING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS.            
850 MB TEMPS WARMING TO 0-2C BY MIDDAY WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO RISE            
INTO THE 55 TO 60F RANGE UNDER FULL SUNSHINE.                                   
THERE IS AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY FOR BEACHES EAST OF            
MARQUETTE WITH NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT BACKING W 10 TO 20 KT BY                     
AFTERNOON. EXPECT WAVES 7 TO 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 6 FT IN THE                
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
RIDGE AXIS SLIDES E OF THE FCST AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY AS SW                   
GRADIENT FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT ON BACKSIDE OF HIGH. MIXING FROM                
INCREASING WIND WILL GENERALLY PREVENT FROST FORMATION TONIGHT...               
EXCEPT FOR COUNTIES ALONG THE WI BDR WHERE DECOUPLING OF WIND WILL              
ALLOW TEMPS TO LOWER INTO THE MID 30S WITH PATCHY FROST AT SOME                 
SHELTERED LOCATIONS.                                                            
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE AS 850 MB TEMPS RISE TO 6-7C ON SUNDAY              
AND 13 TO 15C ON MONDAY. WITH DIURNAL MIXING...LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPS              
MAINLY IN THE 60S ON SUNDAY WITH DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE               
SUPERIOR REACHING INTO THE LOWER 70S. ON MONDAY...LOOK FOR TEMPS                
MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPR 70S WITH SOME LOWER 80S REACHED ALONG THE              
LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TO THE REGION HAS SCOURED OUT THE LK                  
EFFECT CLOUDS AT KCMX AND KSAW. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH NEXT              
24 HR AS THE HIGH REMAINS IN CONTROL. INCREASING WINDS AT                       
1000-2000FT AGL LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT COULD RESULT IN LLWS AT                 
BOTH SITES. EXPECTED STRENGTH OF WIND CORE ABOVE THE INVERSION                  
TONIGHT IS LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE MENTION RIGHT NOW IN THE                  
TAFS.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
WINDS DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY             
AND PRES GRADIENT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR RELAXES. DIMINISHING TREND ONLY            
TEMPORARY AS SW FLOW INCREASES QUICKLY TO 20-25KT THIS AFTERNOON AND            
TONIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE E AND A LOW PRES TROUGH DROPS SE               
INTO ONTARIO. PRES FALLS TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKE WITH THE TROUGH               
AND FAVORED CHANNELLING DIRECTION TO WINDS MAY SUPPORT 30 KT OVR                
WEST SECTIONS OF LK SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH SUN NIGHT                
INTO MON. A LOW PRES SYSTEM TRACKING NE INTO ONTARIO TUE WILL BRING             
ANOTHER SYSTEM TO THE AREA. EXACT TRACK OF LOW NOT CERTAIN...BUT                
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR S GALES LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE AND AGAIN LATER            
TUE NIGHT INTO WED OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. AT THE LEAST...30 KT               
SPEEDS SEEM FAIRLY CERTAIN.                                                     
$$                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 12Z TODAY MIZ002-004-009>011-084.                          
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 12Z TODAY MI003-005-012-013.                               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...VOSS                                                               
MARINE/AVIATION...JLA                                                           
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
503 AM EDT SAT SEP 15 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST ISSUES INCLUDE DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS/CLOUDS                 
TODAY...THEN OTHERWISE CLOUDS/TEMPS INTO MONDAY.                                
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND 00Z RAOBS INDICATE THAT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH               
HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF THE FCST AREA. BEHIND IT CONFLUENT FLOW HAS              
ALLOWED FOR SFC RIDGE TO BUILD IN FROM MN AND NW WI. INCREASINGLY               
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN RESPONSE TO              
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ARE BREAKING APART LAKE CLOUDS OVER THE WRN              
HALF OF UPR MI AS NOTED ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY IN THE PAST FEW HRS.            
ALSO LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS OVER THE ERN CWA APPEAR TO BE WEAKENING AND            
LESS ORGANIZED ON THE LATEST RADAR LOOP. RUC AND NAM FCST SNDGS ALSO            
SEEM TO BEAR THIS OUT.                                                          
-3C 850 MB TEMPS AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL STILL WARRANT KEEPING SOME               
LOW CHC POPS IN FOR FAR ERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING BUT EXPECT              
THE REST OF THE CWA TO BE DRY AFT 12Z. FLOW BACKING WEST TO                     
SOUTHWEST BY MIDDAY WILL SHUT OFF ANY REMAINING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS.            
850 MB TEMPS WARMING TO 0-2C BY MIDDAY WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO RISE            
INTO THE 55 TO 60F RANGE UNDER FULL SUNSHINE.                                   
THERE IS AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY FOR BEACHES EAST OF            
MARQUETTE WITH NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT BACKING W 10 TO 20 KT BY                     
AFTERNOON. EXPECT WAVES 7 TO 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 6 FT IN THE                
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
RIDGE AXIS SLIDES E OF THE FCST AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY AS SW                   
GRADIENT FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT ON BACKSIDE OF HIGH. MIXING FROM                
INCREASING WIND WILL GENERALLY PREVENT FROST FORMATION TONIGHT...               
EXCEPT FOR COUNTIES ALONG THE WI BDR WHERE DECOUPLING OF WIND WILL              
ALLOW TEMPS TO LOWER INTO THE MID 30S WITH PATCHY FROST AT SOME                 
SHELTERED LOCATIONS.                                                            
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE AS 850 MB TEMPS RISE TO 6-7C ON SUNDAY              
AND 13 TO 15C ON MONDAY. WITH DIURNAL MIXING...LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPS              
MAINLY IN THE 60S ON SUNDAY WITH DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE               
SUPERIOR REACHING INTO THE LOWER 70S. ON MONDAY...LOOK FOR TEMPS                
MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPR 70S WITH SOME LOWER 80S REACHED ALONG THE              
LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
CHILLY AIRMASS WILL YIELD SOME LAKE EFFECT -SHRA INTO THE EARLY                 
MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY AT KCMX. GIVEN THE OVER WATER INSTABILITY            
AND NW TO WNW LOW-LEVEL FLOW TONIGHT...EXPECT LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS TO             
LINGER A BIT THIS MORNING...AGAIN ESPECIALLY AT KCMX MORE SO THAN               
KSAW. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL VERY LATE TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY             
MORNING AT BOTH SITES HAS HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES WITH DRIER                    
AIR/MODERATING AIRMASS AND BACKING WINDS.                                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
WINDS DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY             
AND PRES GRADIENT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR RELAXES. DIMINISHING TREND ONLY            
TEMPORARY AS SW FLOW INCREASES QUICKLY TO 20-25KT THIS AFTERNOON AND            
TONIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE E AND A LOW PRES TROUGH DROPS SE               
INTO ONTARIO. PRES FALLS TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKE WITH THE TROUGH               
AND FAVORED CHANNELLING DIRECTION TO WINDS MAY SUPPORT 30 KT OVR                
WEST SECTIONS OF LK SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH SUN NIGHT                
INTO MON. A LOW PRES SYSTEM TRACKING NE INTO ONTARIO TUE WILL BRING             
ANOTHER SYSTEM TO THE AREA. EXACT TRACK OF LOW NOT CERTAIN...BUT                
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR S GALES LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE AND AGAIN LATER            
TUE NIGHT INTO WED OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. AT THE LEAST...30 KT               
SPEEDS SEEM FAIRLY CERTAIN.                                                     
$$                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 12Z TODAY MIZ002-004-009>011-084.                          
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 12Z TODAY MI003-005-012-013.                               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...VOSS                                                               
MARINE...JLA                                                                    
AVIATION...DLG                                                                  
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
142 AM EDT SAT SEP 15 2007                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS                                        
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SAT)...                                                
MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE ARE THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUD AND            
PRECIPITATION TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.                                
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A RATHER PRONOUNCE TROUGH JUST              
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS MOVING              
INTO EASTERN ONTARIO AS A WEAKER ONE IS MOVING INTO WESTERN ONTARIO.            
A BROAD RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN CANADA. SURFACE ANALYSIS                   
DEPICTS A BROAD HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHING A COLD FRONT              
THROUGH THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY. DRY AIR ACCOMPANYING THIS                
HIGH IS BLANKETING SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI               
RIVER VALLEY. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE AROUND 32F OVER SOUTH CENTRAL              
CANADA. DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN WILL CAUSE THE SKIES TO GRADUALLY                
CLEAR. COLD AIR IS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA PRODUCING A FEW LAKE                 
EFFECT SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND NORTH                   
CENTRAL U.P. SATELLITE SHOWING SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER OVER            
THE WESTERN U.P. THE WINDS ARE DIMINISHING AS WELL.                             
TAMDAR SOUNDINGS FROM KSAW SHOWED 850MB TEMPS AROUND -3C...SO                   
THERE IS PLENTY OF OVER WATER INSTABILITY FOR LAKE EFFECT                       
PRECIPITATION. LONG FETCH STILL COINCIDING WITH DEEP MOISTURE IS                
SUPPORTING HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTH                 
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. IT`S LIKELY            
SNOWFLAKES WERE FLYING FOR A TIME IN SOME OF THE OTHER FAVORED                  
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF THE WEST AS WELL.                                   
LINGERING SHRA OVER THE WESTERN PART OF FORECAST AREA SHOULD WIND               
DOWN QUICKLY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS DRIER AIRMASS/WELL MIXED                  
BOUNDARY NOTED BY KINL SOUNDING ARRIVES. OVER THE EAST...LINGERED               
-SHRA WILL CONTINUE THRU THE NIGHT.  AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS                 
THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH CLEARING THAT GOING FROST/FREEZE                     
HEADLINES WILL WORK OUT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH LATE              
TONIGHT TO ALLOW DECOUPLED SURFACE WINDS FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL                 
COOLING AND SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE INTERIOR WEST HALF.                 
AS THE HIGH SPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...SHOWERS OVER            
THE NORTHEAST CWA SHOULD END BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS WINDS BACK AND               
WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR               
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOS GUIDANCE LOOKED ACCEPTABLE WITH HIGHS            
IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.                                                    
.LONG TERM...00Z SUN ONWARD...                                                  
NOT TOO MUCH OF CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST AS THINGS ARE QUIET UNTIL             
MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. A COLD FRONT TRIES TO COME             
DOWN TOWARDS THE AREA ON SUN AND NAM IS THE ONLY MODEL TO PUSH THIS             
THROUGH. WENT AGAINST THE NAM AS THE COLD AIR APPEARS TO STAY TO THE            
NORTH OF THE AREA AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA                
SHOULD KEEP THE FRONT TO THE NORTH AS GFS HAS BEEN ADVERTISING ALL              
ALONG. NAM IS THE OUTLIER AND WILL GO WITH GFS FOR THIS FORECAST.               
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING AND WENT CLOSE TO ADJMVR FOR LOWS AND              
HIGHS WHICH THEY SEEMED REASONABLE. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING STARTS TO             
PUSH OUT AND RIDGING BUILDS IN.                                                 
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN ALL HAVE A 500 MB TROUGH             
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.S. AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN              
U.S. 00Z TUE. TROUGHING MOVES INTO THE AREA 00Z WED. THIS TROUGH                
MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH AND THEN RIDGING TRIES TO COME BACK IN FOR 00Z            
THU AND FOR 00Z FRI AND 00Z SAT. FOLLOWED AGAIN CLOSE TO 00Z ECMWF              
SOLUTION AND LOOKS VERY WARM IN THE EXTENDED WITH ABOVE NORMAL                  
TEMPERATURES. WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON MON NIGHT AND INTRODUCED             
CHANCE POPS WITH THIS AS IT HEADS NORTH. FOR TUE...WARM FRONT IS TO             
THE NORTH AND COLD FRONT TO THE WEST AND LOOKS VERY WARM. ECMWF HAS             
850 MB TEMPERATURES OF 16C TO 18C OVER THE AREA AND MIXING THIS DOWN            
GIVES ME HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WHICH WOULD GIVE ME RECORD               
HIGHS. WILL NOT GO THAT WARM FOR NOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF            
MID 80S ARE NOT POSSIBLE AND A FEW RECORD HIGHS WOULD FALL ON THAT              
DAY. WENT LOWER 80S FOR NOW CLOSE TO ADJMEX GUIDANCE. LOOKS ACTIVE              
IN THE EXTENDED WITH COLD FRONT COMING ACROSS TUE NIGHT AND PASSING             
OUT OF THE AREA ON WED AND KEPT CHANCE POPS IN FOR TUE NIGHT OVER               
ALL THE CWA AND ON WED FOR SOUTHERN AND ERN CWA. WED NIGHT AND                  
THU...FRONT HEADS TO THE SOUTH AND HEADS BACK NORTH ON THU NIGHT AS             
A WARM FRONT AND AGAIN PUT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THU NIGHT. FRI AGAIN              
LOOKS TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR THE CWA WITH WARM FRONT TO THE               
NORTH AND COLD FRONT OFF TO THE WEST. WENT CLOSE TO ADJMXR FOR LOWS             
AND HIGHS AND COULD HAVE SOME RECORD HIGHS BROKEN IN THE EXTENDED.              
LOOKS MORE ACTIVE WITH FRONT MEANDERING ACROSS THE AREA.                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
CHILLY AIRMASS WILL YIELD SOME LAKE EFFECT -SHRA INTO THE EARLY                 
MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY AT KCMX. GIVEN THE OVER WATER INSTABILITY            
AND NW TO WNW LOW-LEVEL FLOW TONIGHT...EXPECT LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS TO             
LINGER A BIT THIS MORNING...AGAIN ESPECIALLY AT KCMX MORE SO THAN               
KSAW. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL VERY LATE TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY             
MORNING AT BOTH SITES HAS HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES WITH DRIER                    
AIR/MODERATING AIRMASS AND BACKING WINDS.                                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DROPPED WITH THIS FCST ISSUANCE. 3HR PRES               
RISE MAX THAT WAS LOCATED NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLIER TODAY AND                 
WHICH HELPED BOOST WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT HAS NOW SETTLED OVER SE            
LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE LOSS OF THE ADDITIVE ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT              
TO THE WIND...FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS HAVE LIKELY ENDED. WINDS                
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THRU THE NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING AS HIGH              
PRES BUILDS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE            
SHORT LIVED AS SW FLOW WILL INCREASE QUICKLY TO 20-25KT SAT/SAT                 
NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE E AND A LOW PRES TROUGH DROPS SE INTO            
ONTARIO. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH SUN NIGHT INTO MON. A LOW PRES                
SYSTEM TRACKING NE INTO ONTARIO TUE WILL BRING ANOTHER SYSTEM TO THE            
AREA.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FREEZE WARNING 06Z-12Z SAT MIZ002-004-009>011-084.                              
FROST ADVISORY 06Z-12Z SAT MI003-005-012-013.                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...DLG                                                                
LONG TERM...GM                                                                  
MARINE...DR                                                                     
AVIATION...DLG                                                                  
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1108 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007                                                     
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SAT)...                                                
MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE ARE THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUD AND            
PRECIPITATION TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.                                
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A RATHER PRONOUNCE TROUGH JUST              
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS MOVING              
INTO EASTERN ONTARIO AS A WEAKER ONE IS MOVING INTO WESTERN ONTARIO.            
A BROAD RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN CANADA. SURFACE ANALYSIS                   
DEPICTS A BROAD HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHING A COLD FRONT              
THROUGH THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY. DRY AIR ACCOMPANYING THIS                
HIGH IS BLANKETING SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI               
RIVER VALLEY. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE AROUND 32F OVER SOUTH CENTRAL              
CANADA. DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN WILL CAUSE THE SKIES TO GRADUALLY                
CLEAR. COLD AIR IS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA PRODUCING A FEW LAKE                 
EFFECT SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND NORTH                   
CENTRAL U.P. SATELLITE SHOWING SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER OVER            
THE WESTERN U.P. THE WINDS ARE DIMINISHING AS WELL.                             
TAMDAR SOUNDINGS FROM KSAW SHOWED 850MB TEMPS AROUND -3C...SO                   
THERE IS PLENTY OF OVER WATER INSTABILITY FOR LAKE EFFECT                       
PRECIPITATION. LONG FETCH STILL COINCIDING WITH DEEP MOISTURE IS                
SUPPORTING HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTH                 
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. IT`S LIKELY            
SNOWFLAKES WERE FLYING FOR A TIME IN SOME OF THE OTHER FAVORED                  
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF THE WEST AS WELL.                                   
LINGERING SHRA OVER THE WESTERN PART OF FORECAST AREA SHOULD WIND               
DOWN QUICKLY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS DRIER AIRMASS/WELL MIXED                  
BOUNDARY NOTED BY KINL SOUNDING ARRIVES. OVER THE EAST...LINGERED               
-SHRA WILL CONTINUE THRU THE NIGHT.  AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS                 
THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH CLEARING THAT GOING FROST/FREEZE                     
HEADLINES WILL WORK OUT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH LATE              
TONIGHT TO ALLOW DECOUPLED SURFACE WINDS FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL                 
COOLING AND SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE INTERIOR WEST HALF.                 
AS THE HIGH SPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...SHOWERS OVER            
THE NORTHEAST CWA SHOULD END BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS WINDS BACK AND               
WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR               
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOS GUIDANCE LOOKED ACCEPTABLE WITH HIGHS            
IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.                                                    
.LONG TERM...00Z SUN ONWARD...                                                  
NOT TOO MUCH OF CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST AS THINGS ARE QUIET UNTIL             
MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. A COLD FRONT TRIES TO COME             
DOWN TOWARDS THE AREA ON SUN AND NAM IS THE ONLY MODEL TO PUSH THIS             
THROUGH. WENT AGAINST THE NAM AS THE COLD AIR APPEARS TO STAY TO THE            
NORTH OF THE AREA AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA                
SHOULD KEEP THE FRONT TO THE NORTH AS GFS HAS BEEN ADVERTISING ALL              
ALONG. NAM IS THE OUTLIER AND WILL GO WITH GFS FOR THIS FORECAST.               
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING AND WENT CLOSE TO ADJMVR FOR LOWS AND              
HIGHS WHICH THEY SEEMED REASONABLE. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING STARTS TO             
PUSH OUT AND RIDGING BUILDS IN.                                                 
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN ALL HAVE A 500 MB TROUGH             
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.S. AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN              
U.S. 00Z TUE. TROUGHING MOVES INTO THE AREA 00Z WED. THIS TROUGH                
MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH AND THEN RIDGING TRIES TO COME BACK IN FOR 00Z            
THU AND FOR 00Z FRI AND 00Z SAT. FOLLOWED AGAIN CLOSE TO 00Z ECMWF              
SOLUTION AND LOOKS VERY WARM IN THE EXTENDED WITH ABOVE NORMAL                  
TEMPERATURES. WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON MON NIGHT AND INTRODUCED             
CHANCE POPS WITH THIS AS IT HEADS NORTH. FOR TUE...WARM FRONT IS TO             
THE NORTH AND COLD FRONT TO THE WEST AND LOOKS VERY WARM. ECMWF HAS             
850 MB TEMPERATURES OF 16C TO 18C OVER THE AREA AND MIXING THIS DOWN            
GIVES ME HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WHICH WOULD GIVE ME RECORD               
HIGHS. WILL NOT GO THAT WARM FOR NOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF            
MID 80S ARE NOT POSSIBLE AND A FEW RECORD HIGHS WOULD FALL ON THAT              
DAY. WENT LOWER 80S FOR NOW CLOSE TO ADJMEX GUIDANCE. LOOKS ACTIVE              
IN THE EXTENDED WITH COLD FRONT COMING ACROSS TUE NIGHT AND PASSING             
OUT OF THE AREA ON WED AND KEPT CHANCE POPS IN FOR TUE NIGHT OVER               
ALL THE CWA AND ON WED FOR SOUTHERN AND ERN CWA. WED NIGHT AND                  
THU...FRONT HEADS TO THE SOUTH AND HEADS BACK NORTH ON THU NIGHT AS             
A WARM FRONT AND AGAIN PUT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THU NIGHT. FRI AGAIN              
LOOKS TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR THE CWA WITH WARM FRONT TO THE               
NORTH AND COLD FRONT OFF TO THE WEST. WENT CLOSE TO ADJMXR FOR LOWS             
AND HIGHS AND COULD HAVE SOME RECORD HIGHS BROKEN IN THE EXTENDED.              
LOOKS MORE ACTIVE WITH FRONT MEANDERING ACROSS THE AREA.                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
CHILLY AIRMASS WILL YIELD SOME LAKE EFFECT -SHRA INTO THE EARLY                 
EVENING HRS...ESPECIALLY AT KCMX. GIVEN THE OVER WATER INSTABILITY              
AND NW TO WNW LOW-LEVEL FLOW TONIGHT...EXPECT LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS TO             
LINGER A BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUS FCST INDICATED...AGAIN ESPECIALLY             
AT KCMX MORE SO THAN KSAW. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL VERY LATE              
TONIGHT THRU SAT MORNING AT BOTH SITES HAS HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES              
WITH DRIER AIR/MODERATING AIRMASS AND BACKING WINDS.                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DROPPED WITH THIS FCST ISSUANCE. 3HR PRES               
RISE MAX THAT WAS LOCATED NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLIER TODAY AND                 
WHICH HELPED BOOST WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT HAS NOW SETTLED OVER SE            
LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE LOSS OF THE ADDITIVE ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT              
TO THE WIND...FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS HAVE LIKELY ENDED. WINDS                
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THRU THE NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING AS HIGH              
PRES BUILDS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE            
SHORT LIVED AS SW FLOW WILL INCREASE QUICKLY TO 20-25KT SAT/SAT                 
NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE E AND A LOW PRES TROUGH DROPS SE INTO            
ONTARIO. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH SUN NIGHT INTO MON. A LOW PRES                
SYSTEM TRACKING NE INTO ONTARIO TUE WILL BRING ANOTHER SYSTEM TO THE            
AREA.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FREEZE WARNING 06Z-12Z SAT MIZ002-004-009>011-084.                              
FROST ADVISORY 06Z-12Z SAT MI003-005-012-013.                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...DLG                                                                
LONG TERM...GM                                                                  
MARINE...DR                                                                     
AVIATION...DLG                                                                  
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
130 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007                                                      
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION                                                 
.UPDATE (ISSUED AT 1112 AM EDT)...                                              
SHORTWAVE TROF IS NOW MOVING ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR/WRN UPPER MI              
WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATING INTO THE FCST AREA. 12Z               
KINL SOUNDING SHOWED NEAR SATURATION TO AROUND 750MB WHILE CWPL                 
SOUNDING SHOWED SATURATION TO 750MB. 850MB TEMPS AT BOTH SITES WERE             
-6C. DEEP MOISTURE/CYCLONIC FLOW AND INCREASING OVERWATER                       
INSTABILITY ARE LEADING TO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LAKE EFFECT PCPN               
THIS MORNING. WHILE THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY REPORTS OF SNOW FROM                
SPOTTERS...SNOW HAS BEEN OCCURRING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE LAKE AT              
GRAND MARAIS MN.                                                                
GOING FCST FOR THE AFTN IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH HIGHEST POPS FOR THE              
AREAS FAVORED FOR LAKE EFFECT PCPN UNDER NW FLOW. A FEW SNOWFLAKES              
COULD STILL MIX IN WITH THE -SHRA OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE W             
AND NW. OTHERWISE...TEMPS OVER THE W AND NCNTRL SHOULD RISE VERY                
LITTLE FROM CURRENT READINGS UNDER CLOUD COVER AND FREQUENT -SHRA.              
TEMPS HAVE ALREADY REBOUNDED SOME OVER THE E AND SCNTRL WHERE THERE             
HAS BEEN MORE SUN THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...DON`T EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE            
ANY HIGHER THAN ABOUT THE MID 50S THERE.                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 521 AM EDT)...                                      
MAIN FCST ISSUES INCLUDE SHOWER COVERAGE TODAY AND POSSIBILITY OF               
SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...AND THEN                   
FREEZE/FROST HEADLINES TONIGHT.                                                 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A VIGOROUS                            
SHORTWAVE/CLOSED MIDLEVEL LOW MOVING THRU NRN ONTARIO. AT THE                   
SFC...ASSOCIATED LOW PRES WAS LOCATED JUST W OF JAMES BAY WITH A                
COLD FRONT EXTENDING S ACROSS NRN LAKE MI INTO NRN IL. SHRA ASSOC               
WITH THIS COLD FRONT HAVE EXITED THE ERN FA FOR THE MOST PART EARLY             
THIS MORNING AS A DRY SLOT HAS MOVED IN FROM THE WEST.                          
FOCUS FOR TODAY SHIFTS TO SHORTWAVE LOBE AND ASSOC TROUGH/SECONDARY             
COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN FROM NW ONTARIO. DEEP/MOIST NW CYCLONIC FLOW             
ALONG THIS SHORTWAVE/TROUGH HAS YIELDED SHOWERS OVER NW ONTARIO AND             
NRN MN. THICKNESSES AND FREEZING LVLS ARE LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW              
SHOWERS TO BE REPORTED THIS MORNING NORTH OF MN BDR INTO ONTARIO.               
WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF -4 TO -5C POISED TO MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR              
WITH THIS TROUGH/FRONTAL PASSAGE...LAKE-850MB DELTA-T WILL INCREASE             
TO 15-17C. WITH DEEP INSTABILITY (LAKE INDUCED CAPES IN EXCESS OF               
300 J/KG) AND MOIST SNDGS PROFILE TO NEAR 600 MB LOOK FOR LAKE                  
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NRN TIER COUNTIES. BEST                
CHCS OF RAIN WILL BE FOR AREAS FAVORED BY 300-320 DIR CBL FLOW SO               
WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS OR NUMEROUS COVERAGE IN FOR THESE COUNTIES                
WHILE THE REST OF THE NRN TIER SHOULD SEE SCT SHRA. LOOKING AT 950              
TEMPS...SOUNDING PROFILES AND 925-850 MB THICKNESSES...THE                      
POSSIBILITY OF SNOW MIXING IN OVER THE W AND NCNTRL HIGH TERRAIN                
LOOKS DOUBTFUL...BUT SINCE OBS JUST OVER THE BORDER INTO ONTARIO ARE            
REPORTING SNOW WILL KEEP A MENTION IN FOR WRN COUNTIES THIS MORNING.            
THICKNESSES AND TEMPS SHOULD WARM ENOUGH BY AFTERNOON TO KEEP ANY               
PCPN LIQUID. CLOUDS AND EXPECTED PERSISTENT SHRA SHOULD KEEP TEMPS              
QUITE COOL FOR MID SEPT. FAVORED THE LOW END OF MOS GUIDANCE WITH               
LOW TO MID 40S FCST FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE WRN INTERIOR OF THE               
CWFA. TEMPS SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT WARMER TO THE E WITH LONGER FETCH                
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGHEST TEMPS WILL BE OVER THE SCNTRL AREAS (MID            
50S) WITH DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW AND LITTLE OR NO PCPN. RIP CURRENTS               
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EAST OF MARQUETTE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30 KT            
AND HIGH WAVES UP TO 8 TO 11 FT.                                                
NEXT BIG PROBLEM WILL BE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT.                    
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND ASSOC SFC RDG IS FCST TO BUILD OVER THE WRN               
INTERIOR OF THE CWFA LATE TONIGHT. AS SKIES CLEAR OUT AND WINDS                 
DECOUPLE BY LATE TONIGHT...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPS            
TO DIP DOWN TO THE UPPER 20S OVER IRON-DICKINSON-GOGEBIC-SOUTHERN               
HOUGHTON AND INLAND PORTIONS OF ONTONAGON AND BARAGA COUNTIES SO                
HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR THESE COUNTIES. MORE PERSISTENT                
WIND AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS UP LONGER FOR NORTHERN                          
HOUGHTON...MARQUETTE...DELTA AND MENOMINEE SO WILL GO WITH A FROST              
ADVISORY FOR THESE COUNTIES AS TEMPS WILL LIKELY DIP NEAR 30F FOR               
INLAND PORTIONS. SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SHRA SHOULD CONTINUE                     
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA TONIGHT AS WEAKLY CYCLONIC NW FLOW PERSISTS              
WITH LAKE DELTA-T AROUND 14-15C. SO GIVEN PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND                 
MODERATING NW WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR DO NOT EXPECT A FROST/FREEZE              
POTENTIAL FOR THE EAST.                                                         
KEPT IN LOW CHC POPS FOR SHRA EARLY SAT FOR FAR ERN COUNTIES GIVEN              
ONSHORE NW FLOW BUT FLOW IS ALREADY BECOMING ANTICYCLONIC AS RIDGE              
AXIS BUILDS IN QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. BACKING FLOW TO WEST BY MIDDAY            
SHOULD END ANY LAKE EFFECT SHRA. RETURN WSW FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF                 
RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND AS 850            
MB TEMPS REBOUND TO AROUND 8C BY SUN. LOOK FOR HIGH IN THE UPR 50S              
TO AROUND 60F ON SAT AND 65 TO 70 RANGE ON SUN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY               
SKIES.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE KCMX THRU THE AFTN AS ABUNDANT              
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS. HOWEVER...SOME DRYING/LOWERING OF SFC               
DWPTS IS EVIDENT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...SUGGESTING MVFR CIGS BLO                
2KFT WILL END AT KCMX...PROBABLY BY 21Z. AT KSAW...FLOW HAS HAD                 
ENOUGH OF A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT SO FAR THAT MVFR CIGS AND EVEN -SHRA            
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO ARRIVE. WITH WINDS VEERING SLIGHTLY...EXPECT MVFR             
CIGS AND -SHRA (NO VIS RESTRICTION) TO BECOME A BIT MORE PREVALENT              
AT KSAW. CHILLY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD SOME LAKE EFFECT                 
-SHRA INTO THE EARLY EVENING HRS...ESPECIALLY AT KCMX. GIVEN THE                
OVERWATER INSTABILITY AND NW TO WNW LOW-LEVEL FLOW TONIGHT...EXPECT             
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS TO LINGER A BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUS FCST                    
INDICATED...AGAIN ESPECIALLY AT KCMX MORE SO THAN KSAW. VFR                     
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL VERY LATE TONIGHT THRU SAT MORNING AT BOTH            
SITES HAS HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES WITH DRIER AIR/MODERATING AIRMASS             
AND BACKING WINDS.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR SO EXPECT W/NW WINDS               
25-30KT TO DEVELOP OVER MOST OF THE LAKE THIS MORNING. PRES RISE                
CROSSING THE LAKE ATTM WILL BOOST WINDS TEMPORARILY THIS MORNING. AS            
TROFFING OVER THE LAKE SUBSIDES LATE TODAY AND RIDGING BUILDS                   
IN...COULD SEE ANOTHER BOOST TO THE WINDS. DURING EITHER OF THESE               
TIME FRAMES WINDS MAY GUST TO 35 KNOT GALES THOUGH GALES DO NOT LOOK            
WIDESPREAD OR LONG LASTING ENOUGH TO ISSUE A GALE WARNING. HIGH PRES            
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE             
HIGH...SW WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT LATER SAT INTO               
SUN.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
 GALE WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR.                                                    
 FREEZE WARNING 06Z-12Z SAT MIZ002-004-009>011-084.                             
 FROST ADVISORY 06Z-12Z SAT MI003-005-012-013.                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...ROLFSON                                                                
PREV DISCUSSION...VOSS                                                          
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...JLA                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1112 AM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SHORTWAVE TROF IS NOW MOVING ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR/WRN UPPER MI              
WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATING INTO THE FCST AREA. 12Z               
KINL SOUNDING SHOWED NEAR SATURATION TO AROUND 750MB WHILE CWPL                 
SOUNDING SHOWED SATURATION TO 750MB. 850MB TEMPS AT BOTH SITES WERE             
-6C. DEEP MOISTURE/CYCLONIC FLOW AND INCREASING OVERWATER                       
INSTABILITY ARE LEADING TO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LAKE EFFECT PCPN               
THIS MORNING. WHILE THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY REPORTS OF SNOW FROM                
SPOTTERS...SNOW HAS BEEN OCCURRING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE LAKE AT              
GRAND MARAIS MN.                                                                
GOING FCST FOR THE AFTN IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH HIGHEST POPS FOR THE              
AREAS FAVORED FOR LAKE EFFECT PCPN UNDER NW FLOW. A FEW SNOWFLAKES              
COULD STILL MIX IN WITH THE -SHRA OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE W             
AND NW. OTHERWISE...TEMPS OVER THE W AND NCNTRL SHOULD RISE VERY                
LITTLE FROM CURRENT READINGS UNDER CLOUD COVER AND FREQUENT -SHRA.              
TEMPS HAVE ALREADY REBOUNDED SOME OVER THE E AND SCNTRL WHERE THERE             
HAS BEEN MORE SUN THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...DON`T EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE            
ANY HIGHER THAN ABOUT THE MID 50S THERE.                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 521 AM EDT)...                                      
MAIN FCST ISSUES INCLUDE SHOWER COVERAGE TODAY AND POSSIBILITY OF               
SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...AND THEN                   
FREEZE/FROST HEADLINES TONIGHT.                                                 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A VIGOROUS                            
SHORTWAVE/CLOSED MIDLEVEL LOW MOVING THRU NRN ONTARIO. AT THE                   
SFC...ASSOCIATED LOW PRES WAS LOCATED JUST W OF JAMES BAY WITH A                
COLD FRONT EXTENDING S ACROSS NRN LAKE MI INTO NRN IL. SHRA ASSOC               
WITH THIS COLD FRONT HAVE EXITED THE ERN FA FOR THE MOST PART EARLY             
THIS MORNING AS A DRY SLOT HAS MOVED IN FROM THE WEST.                          
FOCUS FOR TODAY SHIFTS TO SHORTWAVE LOBE AND ASSOC TROUGH/SECONDARY             
COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN FROM NW ONTARIO. DEEP/MOIST NW CYCLONIC FLOW             
ALONG THIS SHORTWAVE/TROUGH HAS YIELDED SHOWERS OVER NW ONTARIO AND             
NRN MN. THICKNESSES AND FREEZING LVLS ARE LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW              
SHOWERS TO BE REPORTED THIS MORNING NORTH OF MN BDR INTO ONTARIO.               
WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF -4 TO -5C POISED TO MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR              
WITH THIS TROUGH/FRONTAL PASSAGE...LAKE-850MB DELTA-T WILL INCREASE             
TO 15-17C. WITH DEEP INSTABILITY (LAKE INDUCED CAPES IN EXCESS OF               
300 J/KG) AND MOIST SNDGS PROFILE TO NEAR 600 MB LOOK FOR LAKE                  
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NRN TIER COUNTIES. BEST                
CHCS OF RAIN WILL BE FOR AREAS FAVORED BY 300-320 DIR CBL FLOW SO               
WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS OR NUMEROUS COVERAGE IN FOR THESE COUNTIES                
WHILE THE REST OF THE NRN TIER SHOULD SEE SCT SHRA. LOOKING AT 950              
TEMPS...SOUNDING PROFILES AND 925-850 MB THICKNESSES...THE                      
POSSIBILITY OF SNOW MIXING IN OVER THE W AND NCNTRL HIGH TERRAIN                
LOOKS DOUBTFUL...BUT SINCE OBS JUST OVER THE BORDER INTO ONTARIO ARE            
REPORTING SNOW WILL KEEP A MENTION IN FOR WRN COUNTIES THIS MORNING.            
THICKNESSES AND TEMPS SHOULD WARM ENOUGH BY AFTERNOON TO KEEP ANY               
PCPN LIQUID. CLOUDS AND EXPECTED PERSISTENT SHRA SHOULD KEEP TEMPS              
QUITE COOL FOR MID SEPT. FAVORED THE LOW END OF MOS GUIDANCE WITH               
LOW TO MID 40S FCST FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE WRN INTERIOR OF THE               
CWFA. TEMPS SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT WARMER TO THE E WITH LONGER FETCH                
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGHEST TEMPS WILL BE OVER THE SCNTRL AREAS (MID            
50S) WITH DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW AND LITTLE OR NO PCPN. RIP CURRENTS               
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EAST OF MARQUETTE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30 KT            
AND HIGH WAVES UP TO 8 TO 11 FT.                                                
NEXT BIG PROBLEM WILL BE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT.                    
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND ASSOC SFC RDG IS FCST TO BUILD OVER THE WRN               
INTERIOR OF THE CWFA LATE TONIGHT. AS SKIES CLEAR OUT AND WINDS                 
DECOUPLE BY LATE TONIGHT...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPS            
TO DIP DOWN TO THE UPPER 20S OVER IRON-DICKINSON-GOGEBIC-SOUTHERN               
HOUGHTON AND INLAND PORTIONS OF ONTONAGON AND BARAGA COUNTIES SO                
HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR THESE COUNTIES. MORE PERSISTENT                
WIND AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS UP LONGER FOR NORTHERN                          
HOUGHTON...MARQUETTE...DELTA AND MENOMINEE SO WILL GO WITH A FROST              
ADVISORY FOR THESE COUNTIES AS TEMPS WILL LIKELY DIP NEAR 30F FOR               
INLAND PORTIONS. SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SHRA SHOULD CONTINUE                     
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA TONIGHT AS WEAKLY CYCLONIC NW FLOW PERSISTS              
WITH LAKE DELTA-T AROUND 14-15C. SO GIVEN PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND                 
MODERATING NW WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR DO NOT EXPECT A FROST/FREEZE              
POTENTIAL FOR THE EAST.                                                         
KEPT IN LOW CHC POPS FOR SHRA EARLY SAT FOR FAR ERN COUNTIES GIVEN              
ONSHORE NW FLOW BUT FLOW IS ALREADY BECOMING ANTICYCLONIC AS RIDGE              
AXIS BUILDS IN QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. BACKING FLOW TO WEST BY MIDDAY            
SHOULD END ANY LAKE EFFECT SHRA. RETURN WSW FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF                 
RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND AS 850            
MB TEMPS REBOUND TO AROUND 8C BY SUN. LOOK FOR HIGH IN THE UPR 50S              
TO AROUND 60F ON SAT AND 65 TO 70 RANGE ON SUN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY               
SKIES.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
HERE COME THE LOW CLOUDS INTO UPR MI. BASES FLOATING AROUND 3000FT              
BUT WITH NW WINDS ADVECTING IN COOL/MOIST AIRMASS AND LOW CONVECTIVE            
TEMPS...SUSPECT CIGS WILL DIP INTO MVFR QUICKLY THIS MORNING. SCT               
RAIN SHOWERS NOTED ON THE RADAR...A LIGHT MIST NOW OUTSIDE AT OUR               
OFFICE JUST WEST OF NEGAUNEE...AND WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION...EXPECT             
COVERAGE IN THE PCPN TO ONLY INCREASE AS LK INSTABILITY BECOMES MORE            
OF A FACTOR. COULD SEE IFR CONDITIONS FOR A TIME AT KCMX LATER THIS             
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN AND AT THE SAME TIME MAY ALSO SEE SOME                  
SNOWFLAKES MIX WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS AS THERMAL TROUGH/DEEP MOISTURE            
AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. BOTH THE EVENTS ARE TOO LOW A                   
PROBABILITY TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. ALL IN ALL...BETTER CHANCES FOR              
PCPN TODAY WILL BE AT KCMX WITH MORE FAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES.                    
LINGERED LOW CLOUD AT KCMX INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT WITH NW               
WINDS CLEARED OUT THE CLOUDS AT KSAW THIS EVENING.                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR SO EXPECT W/NW WINDS               
25-30KT TO DEVELOP OVER MOST OF THE LAKE THIS MORNING. PRES RISE                
CROSSING THE LAKE ATTM WILL BOOST WINDS TEMPORARILY THIS MORNING. AS            
TROFFING OVER THE LAKE SUBSIDES LATE TODAY AND RIDGING BUILDS                   
IN...COULD SEE ANOTHER BOOST TO THE WINDS. DURING EITHER OF THESE               
TIME FRAMES WINDS MAY GUST TO 35 KNOT GALES THOUGH GALES DO NOT LOOK            
WIDESPREAD OR LONG LASTING ENOUGH TO ISSUE A GALE WARNING. HIGH PRES            
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE             
HIGH...SW WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT LATER SAT INTO               
SUN.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
 GALE WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR.                                                    
 FREEZE WARNING 06Z-12Z SAT MIZ002-004-009>011-084.                             
 FROST ADVISORY 06Z-12Z SAT MI003-005-012-013.                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...ROLFSON                                                                
PREV DISCUSSION...VOSS                                                          
AVIATION...JLA                                                                  
MARINE...JLA                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
755 AM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS                                        
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST ISSUES INCLUDE SHOWER COVERAGE TODAY AND POSSIBILITY OF               
SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...AND THEN                   
FREEZE/FROST HEADLINES TONIGHT.                                                 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A VIGOROUS                            
SHORTWAVE/CLOSED MIDLEVEL LOW MOVING THRU NRN ONTARIO. AT THE                   
SFC...ASSOCIATED LOW PRES WAS LOCATED JUST W OF JAMES BAY WITH A                
COLD FRONT EXTENDING S ACROSS NRN LAKE MI INTO NRN IL. SHRA ASSOC               
WITH THIS COLD FRONT HAVE EXITED THE ERN FA FOR THE MOST PART EARLY             
THIS MORNING AS A DRY SLOT HAS MOVED IN FROM THE WEST.                          
FOCUS FOR TODAY SHIFTS TO SHORTWAVE LOBE AND ASSOC TROUGH/SECONDARY             
COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN FROM NW ONTARIO. DEEP/MOIST NW CYCLONIC FLOW             
ALONG THIS SHORTWAVE/TROUGH HAS YIELDED SHOWERS OVER NW ONTARIO AND             
NRN MN. THICKNESSES AND FREEZING LVLS ARE LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW              
SHOWERS TO BE REPORTED THIS MORNING NORTH OF MN BDR INTO ONTARIO.               
WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF -4 TO -5C POISED TO MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR              
WITH THIS TROUGH/FRONTAL PASSAGE...LAKE-850MB DELTA-T WILL INCREASE             
TO 15-17C. WITH DEEP INSTABILITY (LAKE INDUCED CAPES IN EXCESS OF               
300 J/KG) AND MOIST SNDGS PROFILE TO NEAR 600 MB LOOK FOR LAKE                  
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NRN TIER COUNTIES. BEST                
CHCS OF RAIN WILL BE FOR AREAS FAVORED BY 300-320 DIR CBL FLOW SO               
WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS OR NUMEROUS COVERAGE IN FOR THESE COUNTIES                
WHILE THE REST OF THE NRN TIER SHOULD SEE SCT SHRA. LOOKING AT 950              
TEMPS...SOUNDING PROFILES AND 925-850 MB THICKNESSES...THE                      
POSSIBILITY OF SNOW MIXING IN OVER THE W AND NCNTRL HIGH TERRAIN                
LOOKS DOUBTFUL...BUT SINCE OBS JUST OVER THE BORDER INTO ONTARIO ARE            
REPORTING SNOW WILL KEEP A MENTION IN FOR WRN COUNTIES THIS MORNING.            
THICKNESSES AND TEMPS SHOULD WARM ENOUGH BY AFTERNOON TO KEEP ANY               
PCPN LIQUID. CLOUDS AND EXPECTED PERSISTENT SHRA SHOULD KEEP TEMPS              
QUITE COOL FOR MID SEPT. FAVORED THE LOW END OF MOS GUIDANCE WITH               
LOW TO MID 40S FCST FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE WRN INTERIOR OF THE               
CWFA. TEMPS SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT WARMER TO THE E WITH LONGER FETCH                
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGHEST TEMPS WILL BE OVER THE SCNTRL AREAS (MID            
50S) WITH DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW AND LITTLE OR NO PCPN. RIP CURRENTS               
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EAST OF MARQUETTE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30 KT            
AND HIGH WAVES UP TO 8 TO 11 FT.                                                
NEXT BIG PROBLEM WILL BE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT.                    
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND ASSOC SFC RDG IS FCST TO BUILD OVER THE WRN               
INTERIOR OF THE CWFA LATE TONIGHT. AS SKIES CLEAR OUT AND WINDS                 
DECOUPLE BY LATE TONIGHT...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPS            
TO DIP DOWN TO THE UPPER 20S OVER IRON-DICKINSON-GOGEBIC-SOUTHERN               
HOUGHTON AND INLAND PORTIONS OF ONTONAGON AND BARAGA COUNTIES SO                
HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR THESE COUNTIES. MORE PERSISTENT                
WIND AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS UP LONGER FOR NORTHERN                          
HOUGHTON...MARQUETTE...DELTA AND MENOMINEE SO WILL GO WITH A FROST              
ADVISORY FOR THESE COUNTIES AS TEMPS WILL LIKELY DIP NEAR 30F FOR               
INLAND PORTIONS. SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SHRA SHOULD CONTINUE                     
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA TONIGHT AS WEAKLY CYCLONIC NW FLOW PERSISTS              
WITH LAKE DELTA-T AROUND 14-15C. SO GIVEN PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND                 
MODERATING NW WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR DO NOT EXPECT A FROST/FREEZE              
POTENTIAL FOR THE EAST.                                                         
KEPT IN LOW CHC POPS FOR SHRA EARLY SAT FOR FAR ERN COUNTIES GIVEN              
ONSHORE NW FLOW BUT FLOW IS ALREADY BECOMING ANTICYCLONIC AS RIDGE              
AXIS BUILDS IN QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. BACKING FLOW TO WEST BY MIDDAY            
SHOULD END ANY LAKE EFFECT SHRA. RETURN WSW FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF                 
RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND AS 850            
MB TEMPS REBOUND TO AROUND 8C BY SUN. LOOK FOR HIGH IN THE UPR 50S              
TO AROUND 60F ON SAT AND 65 TO 70 RANGE ON SUN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY               
SKIES.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
HERE COME THE LOW CLOUDS INTO UPR MI. BASES FLOATING AROUND 3000FT              
BUT WITH NW WINDS ADVECTING IN COOL/MOIST AIRMASS AND LOW CONVECTIVE            
TEMPS...SUSPECT CIGS WILL DIP INTO MVFR QUICKLY THIS MORNING. SCT               
RAIN SHOWERS NOTED ON THE RADAR...A LIGHT MIST NOW OUTSIDE AT OUR               
OFFICE JUST WEST OF NEGAUNEE...AND WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION...EXPECT             
COVERAGE IN THE PCPN TO ONLY INCREASE AS LK INSTABILITY BECOMES MORE            
OF A FACTOR. COULD SEE IFR CONDITIONS FOR A TIME AT KCMX LATER THIS             
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN AND AT THE SAME TIME MAY ALSO SEE SOME                  
SNOWFLAKES MIX WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS AS THERMAL TROUGH/DEEP MOISTURE            
AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. BOTH THE EVENTS ARE TOO LOW A                   
PROBABILITY TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. ALL IN ALL...BETTER CHANCES FOR              
PCPN TODAY WILL BE AT KCMX WITH MORE FAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES.                    
LINGERED LOW CLOUD AT KCMX INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT WITH NW               
WINDS CLEARED OUT THE CLOUDS AT KSAW THIS EVENING.                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR SO EXPECT W/NW WINDS               
25-30KT TO DEVELOP OVER MOST OF THE LAKE THIS MORNING. PRES RISE                
CROSSING THE LAKE ATTM WILL BOOST WINDS TEMPORARILY THIS MORNING. AS            
TROFFING OVER THE LAKE SUBSIDES LATE TODAY AND RIDGING BUILDS                   
IN...COULD SEE ANOTHER BOOST TO THE WINDS. DURING EITHER OF THESE               
TIME FRAMES WINDS MAY GUST TO 35 KNOT GALES THOUGH GALES DO NOT LOOK            
WIDESPREAD OR LONG LASTING ENOUGH TO ISSUE A GALE WARNING. HIGH PRES            
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE             
HIGH...SW WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT LATER SAT INTO               
SUN.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FREEZE WARNING 06Z-12Z SAT MIZ002-004-009>011-084.                              
FROST ADVISORY 06Z-12Z SAT MI003-005-012-013.                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...VOSS                                                               
AVIATION...JLA                                                                  
MARINE...JLA                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
521 AM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST ISSUES INCLUDE SHOWER COVERAGE TODAY AND POSSIBILITY OF               
SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...AND THEN                   
FREEZE/FROST HEADLINES TONIGHT.                                                 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A VIGOROUS                            
SHORTWAVE/CLOSED MIDLEVEL LOW MOVING THRU NRN ONTARIO. AT THE                   
SFC...ASSOCIATED LOW PRES WAS LOCATED JUST W OF JAMES BAY WITH A                
COLD FRONT EXTENDING S ACROSS NRN LAKE MI INTO NRN IL. SHRA ASSOC               
WITH THIS COLD FRONT HAVE EXITED THE ERN FA FOR THE MOST PART EARLY             
THIS MORNING AS A DRY SLOT HAS MOVED IN FROM THE WEST.                          
FOCUS FOR TODAY SHIFTS TO SHORTWAVE LOBE AND ASSOC TROUGH/SECONDARY             
COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN FROM NW ONTARIO. DEEP/MOIST NW CYCLONIC FLOW             
ALONG THIS SHORTWAVE/TROUGH HAS YIELDED SHOWERS OVER NW ONTARIO AND             
NRN MN. THICKNESSES AND FREEZING LVLS ARE LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW              
SHOWERS TO BE REPORTED THIS MORNING NORTH OF MN BDR INTO ONTARIO.               
WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF -4 TO -5C POISED TO MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR              
WITH THIS TROUGH/FRONTAL PASSAGE...LAKE-850MB DELTA-T WILL INCREASE             
TO 15-17C. WITH DEEP INSTABILITY (LAKE INDUCED CAPES IN EXCESS OF               
300 J/KG) AND MOIST SNDGS PROFILE TO NEAR 600 MB LOOK FOR LAKE                  
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NRN TIER COUNTIES. BEST                
CHCS OF RAIN WILL BE FOR AREAS FAVORED BY 300-320 DIR CBL FLOW SO               
WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS OR NUMEROUS COVERAGE IN FOR THESE COUNTIES                
WHILE THE REST OF THE NRN TIER SHOULD SEE SCT SHRA. LOOKING AT 950              
TEMPS...SOUNDING PROFILES AND 925-850 MB THICKNESSES...THE                      
POSSIBILITY OF SNOW MIXING IN OVER THE W AND NCNTRL HIGH TERRAIN                
LOOKS DOUBTFUL...BUT SINCE OBS JUST OVER THE BORDER INTO ONTARIO ARE            
REPORTING SNOW WILL KEEP A MENTION IN FOR WRN COUNTIES THIS MORNING.            
THICKNESSES AND TEMPS SHOULD WARM ENOUGH BY AFTERNOON TO KEEP ANY               
PCPN LIQUID. CLOUDS AND EXPECTED PERSISTENT SHRA SHOULD KEEP TEMPS              
QUITE COOL FOR MID SEPT. FAVORED THE LOW END OF MOS GUIDANCE WITH               
LOW TO MID 40S FCST FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE WRN INTERIOR OF THE               
CWFA. TEMPS SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT WARMER TO THE E WITH LONGER FETCH                
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGHEST TEMPS WILL BE OVER THE SCNTRL AREAS (MID            
50S) WITH DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW AND LITTLE OR NO PCPN. RIP CURRENTS               
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EAST OF MARQUETTE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30 KT            
AND HIGH WAVES UP TO 8 TO 11 FT.                                                
NEXT BIG PROBLEM WILL BE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT.                    
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND ASSOC SFC RDG IS FCST TO BUILD OVER THE WRN               
INTERIOR OF THE CWFA LATE TONIGHT. AS SKIES CLEAR OUT AND WINDS                 
DECOUPLE BY LATE TONIGHT...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPS            
TO DIP DOWN TO THE UPPER 20S OVER IRON-DICKINSON-GOGEBIC-SOUTHERN               
HOUGHTON AND INLAND PORTIONS OF ONTONAGON AND BARAGA COUNTIES SO                
HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR THESE COUNTIES. MORE PERSISTENT                
WIND AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS UP LONGER FOR NORTHERN                          
HOUGHTON...MARQUETTE...DELTA AND MENOMINEE SO WILL GO WITH A FROST              
ADVISORY FOR THESE COUNTIES AS TEMPS WILL LIKELY DIP NEAR 30F FOR               
INLAND PORTIONS. SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SHRA SHOULD CONTINUE                     
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA TONIGHT AS WEAKLY CYCLONIC NW FLOW PERSISTS              
WITH LAKE DELTA-T AROUND 14-15C. SO GIVEN PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND                 
MODERATING NW WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR DO NOT EXPECT A FROST/FREEZE              
POTENTIAL FOR THE EAST.                                                         
KEPT IN LOW CHC POPS FOR SHRA EARLY SAT FOR FAR ERN COUNTIES GIVEN              
ONSHORE NW FLOW BUT FLOW IS ALREADY BECOMING ANTICYCLONIC AS RIDGE              
AXIS BUILDS IN QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. BACKING FLOW TO WEST BY MIDDAY            
SHOULD END ANY LAKE EFFECT SHRA. RETURN WSW FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF                 
RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND AS 850            
MB TEMPS REBOUND TO AROUND 8C BY SUN. LOOK FOR HIGH IN THE UPR 50S              
TO AROUND 60F ON SAT AND 65 TO 70 RANGE ON SUN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY               
SKIES.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
BEHIND THE FRONT...VFR CONDITIONS AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL                
UNTIL LATER IN THE NIGHT. LATER TONIGHT...MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND              
THE BACKSIDE OF LOW PRES IN ONTARIO WILL BRING A LOWERING OF CIGS               
INTO THE MVFR RANGE...FIRST AT KCMX. NOTE THE LARGE AREA OF MVFR                
CIGS UPSTREAM IN NRN MN AND WRN ONTARIO. IN ADDITION...INCREASINGLY             
CHILLY AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO LAKE EFFECT -SHRA DEVELOPMENT WHICH WILL            
BE FURTHER AIDED BY DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW. NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE                  
QUESTION THAT IFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP FOR A TIME AT KCMX FRI MORNING             
UNDER FAVORABLE UPSLOPING NW LOW-LEVEL FLOW...BUT THAT POTENTIAL                
APPEARS MINIMAL AT THIS POINT AND WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THIS FCST             
ISSUANCE. KCMX WILL ALSO SEE STRONGER WINDS THAN KSAW DUE TO TERRAIN            
AFFECTS AND UNSTABLE NW FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS               
EXPECTED FRI AFTERNOON WITH VFR CIGS LATE AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN               
FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE PLAINS SFC HIGH.                                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR SO EXPECT W/NW WINDS               
25-30KT TO DEVELOP OVER MOST OF THE LAKE THIS MORNING. PRES RISE                
CROSSING THE LAKE ATTM WILL BOOST WINDS TEMPORARILY THIS MORNING. AS            
TROFFING OVER THE LAKE SUBSIDES LATE TODAY AND RIDGING BUILDS                   
IN...COULD SEE ANOTHER BOOST TO THE WINDS. DURING EITHER OF THESE               
TIME FRAMES WINDS MAY GUST TO 35 KNOT GALES THOUGH GALES DO NOT LOOK            
WIDESPREAD OR LONG LASTING ENOUGH TO ISSUE A GALE WARNING. HIGH PRES            
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE             
HIGH...SW WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT LATER SAT INTO               
SUN.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FREEZE WARNING 06Z-12Z SAT MIZ002-004-009>011-084.                              
FROST ADVISORY 06Z-12Z SAT MI003-005-012-013.                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...VOSS                                                               
AVIATION...JLB                                                                  
MARINE...JLA                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION                                 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
220 AM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...                                             
MAIN FCST ISSUE ARE SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE.                                         
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A VIGOROUS                            
SHORTWAVE/CLOSED MIDLEVEL LOW MOVING THRU NRN ONTARIO. AT THE                   
SFC...ASSOCIATED LOW PRES WAS LOCATED JUST SW OF CYPL WITH A COLD               
FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR/FAR WRN UPPER MI INTO CNTRL            
IA. APPEARS A BAND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS BEEN OCCURRING JUST N OF            
THE SFC LOW TRACK IN NRN ONTARIO TODAY. FARTHER S...BAND OF SHRA AND            
ISOLATED TSRA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT HAS BEEN PROGRESSING ACROSS               
THE W HALF OF UPPER MI THIS AFTN. PCPN HAS HAD SOME DIFFICULTY                  
HOLDING TOGETHER...SO HIGH CHC/SCT POPS WILL BE UTILIZED LATE THIS              
AFTN/EARLY THIS EVENING AS PCPN MOVES INTO THE ERN FCST AREA. THERE             
IS A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL BREAK IN THE PCPN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS              
MIDLEVEL DRYING SURGES AROUND THE S SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE TO THE N.             
SO...ONCE PCPN ENDS SHORTLY AFTER FROPA...DO NOT EXPECT ANY PCPN                
AGAIN UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT WHEN DEEP MOISTURE ROTATES BACK INTO              
THE AREA BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE. LAKE EFFECT PCPN WILL ALSO BECOME                
INVOLVED AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -4C OVER THE WRN LAKE BY 12Z             
FRI. HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF POSSIBLE SNOW AS AT LEAST THE                  
LOWEST 1500FT ABOVE GROUND REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.                               
LAKE EFFECT SHRA SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD FRI MORNING UNDER                     
DEEP/MOIST NW CYCLONIC FLOW WITH LAKE-850MB DELTA-T INCREASING TO               
15-18C. WHILE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN OVER THE             
W AND NCNTRL HIGH TERRAIN LOOKS DOUBTFUL...SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT               
FREEZING LEVEL WILL BE LOW ENOUGH THAT IT CAN`T BE RULED OUT                    
COMPLETELY. AS OFTEN OCCURS IN EARLY SEASON LAKE EFFECT...IT WOULD              
PROBABLY BE MORE LIKELY THAT GRAUPEL WOULD OCCUR RATHER THAN                    
SNOWFLAKES. WITH EXPECTATION OF PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT                 
LIGHT -SHRA...IT WILL BE A VERY CHILLY DAY FOR MID SEPT OVER THE W              
AND NCNTRL. FAVORED THE LOW END OF MOS GUIDANCE WITH WIDESPREAD MID             
40S AT BEST THOUGH A FEW AREAS MAY ONLY REACH THE LWR 40S WHERE LAKE            
EFFECT PCPN IS MOST PERSISTENT. TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT WARMER TO THE            
E WITH LONG FETCH OVER THE LAKE. HIGHEST TEMPS WILL BE OVER THE                 
SCNTRL AREAS (MID 50S) WITH DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW AND LITTLE OR NO                
PCPN.                                                                           
RIP CURRENTS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF MARQUETTE ON FRIDAY WITH NORTHWEST            
WINDS UP TO 25 KT AND HIGH WAVES UP TO 6 TO 10 FT.                              
LONGER TERM...00Z SAT ONWARDS...                                                
BIGGEST PROBLEM IS GOING TO BE THE FROST/FREEZE LATE FRI NIGHT AND              
EARLY SAT MORNING.                                                              
AREA STAYS UNDER A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A                
STRONG SHORTWAVE 500 MB TROUGH TO THE EAST OF THE CWA BY FRI NIGHT              
ALREADY. LAKE EFFECT PCPN SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA FRI            
NIGHT WITH LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS REMAINING...SO NO FREEZE OR FROST                 
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE ERN CWA AS NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW 850 MB                    
TEMPERATURES OF -2C TO -4C AND WITH LAKE TEMPS OF 10C TO 15C...THAT             
IS ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WHICH SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE EAST.             
THINGS GET TRICKIER IN THE WEST. WINDS LOOK TO STAY UP THROUGH                  
MIDNIGHT AT LEAST WHICH SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TO             
FREEZING FOR A WHILE. AS SKIES CLEAR OUT AND WINDS DIE DOWN...GOOD              
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SET UP LATE WHICH SHOULD GET TEMPS               
DOWN TO THE UPPER 20S IN PLACES AND CONTINUED THE FREEZE WATCH WHICH            
CONTINUED TO LOOK GOOD. WENT CLOSE TO ADJMAV FOR LOWS AND HIGHS                 
WHICH SEEMED GOOD.                                                              
REMOVED POPS FROM SUN EVENING AS COLD FRONT NOW LOOKS TO GET HUNG UP            
TO THE NORTH AND DOES NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH IT AND              
FRONT SHOULD ONLY BE A WINDSHIFT NOW AS COLD AIR STAYS WELL NORTH               
INTO CANADA. OTHER THAN THAT...QUIET WEATHER WITH A WARM UP WITH                
TEMPERATURES GETTING BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY SUN. ONE POSSIBILITY WHICH            
WAS THOUGHT ABOUT BRIEFLY WAS LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ON SUN WITH S TO              
SW FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN AS NAM IS SHOWING 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF              
4C IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH WITH LAKE TEMPERATURES OF 18C...MIGHT BE              
ENOUGH TO CONSIDER. NAM IS PUTTING OUT SOME PCPN ALONG THE LAKE                 
MICHIGAN SHORELINE EAST OF KISQ ANYWAY AND MAY BE PICKING UP ON                 
THIS. COULD BE POSSIBLE...BUT THINK CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO NOT                 
MENTION AT THIS TIME. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THOUGH FOR SUN             
WITH WINDS COMING BACK AROUND AND LAKE-850 MB DELTA-T IN CRITICAL               
AREA.                                                                           
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN ALL SHOW THE 500 MB                  
PATTERN CONSISTS OF A TROUGH IN THE WEST AND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL               
CANADA WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. 00Z MON. THE TROUGH                
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA STAYS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND IS               
FOLLOWED BY RIDGING FOR 00Z TUE POKING INTO THE AREA AND THE RIDGING            
CONTINUES TO BUILD TO THE EAST 00Z WED WITH TROUGHING ASSOCIATED                
WITH THE WESTERN U.S. MOVING IN FOR 00Z THU. RIDGING THEN COMES BACK            
IN FOR 00Z FRI. WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON TUE...AND THEN             
COLD FRONT ON WED. FOLLOWED THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION PRETTY CLOSELY               
AND WENT WARMER CLOSE TO ADJMXR TEMPERATURES WHICH WERE PRETTY                  
CLOSE. SPED THINGS UP A BIT AND PUT CHANCE POPS IN FOR TUE AND TUE              
NIGHT WITH THE WARM FRONT AND THEN MOVED PCPN OUT OF WESTERN CWA ON             
WED AS COLD FRONT IS ALREADY PAST. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ABOVE                
NORMAL. A FEW CHANGES HERE AND THERE...BUT OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE              
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WENT DRY FOR WED NIGHT AND THU WITH                 
RIDGING BACK IN THE AREA.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
BEHIND THE FRONT...VFR CONDITIONS AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL                
UNTIL LATER IN THE NIGHT. LATER TONIGHT...MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND              
THE BACKSIDE OF LOW PRES IN ONTARIO WILL BRING A LOWERING OF CIGS               
INTO THE MVFR RANGE...FIRST AT KCMX. NOTE THE LARGE AREA OF MVFR                
CIGS UPSTREAM IN NRN MN AND WRN ONTARIO. IN ADDITION...INCREASINGLY             
CHILLY AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO LAKE EFFECT -SHRA DEVELOPMENT WHICH WILL            
BE FURTHER AIDED BY DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW. NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE                  
QUESTION THAT IFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP FOR A TIME AT KCMX FRI MORNING             
UNDER FAVORABLE UPSLOPING NW LOW-LEVEL FLOW...BUT THAT POTENTIAL                
APPEARS MINIMAL AT THIS POINT AND WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THIS FCST             
ISSUANCE. KCMX WILL ALSO SEE STRONGER WINDS THAN KSAW DUE TO TERRAIN            
AFFECTS AND UNSTABLE NW FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS               
EXPECTED FRI AFTERNOON WITH VFR CIGS LATE AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN               
FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE PLAINS SFC HIGH.                                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
COLD FRONT PROGRESSING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING WILL BRING             
AN END TO SRLY GALES OVER THE E PART OF THE LAKE IN THE NEXT FEW                
HRS. AFTER FROPA...EXPECT A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF W AND THEN NW                   
25-30KT WINDS TONIGHT THRU FRIDAY. COULD BE CLOSE TO NW GALES OVER              
THE E HALF OF THE LAKE FRI AFTN/EVENING WITH DEEP INSTABILITY                   
RESULTING IN EFFICIENT MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS TO THE LAKE SFC.                
SINCE WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER ARE NO HIGHER THAN ABOUT 31KT AND                
THERE IS NO ADDITIVE ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT...WILL KEEP WINDS TO JUST            
30KT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS             
INTO THE WRN LAKES. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH...SW WINDS WILL                 
AGAIN INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT LATER SAT INTO SUN.                               
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GALE WARNING E HALF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH 00Z TONIGHT                           
GALE WARNING LMZ221-248 THROUGH 03Z TONIGHT                                     
FREEZE WATCH 06Z-12Z SAT MIZ002-004-005-009>012-084.                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LONG TERM...GM                                                                  
AVIATION/MARINE/SHORT TERM...ROLFSON                                            
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
926 PM EDT SAT SEP 15 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER TO                  
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.                
AREAS OF FROST WILL DEVELOP IN NORMALLY COLDER AREAS LATE TONIGHT               
AS TEMPERATURES FALL TO THE 30S. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE                  
AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...               
WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY THE SECOND HALF OF              
THE WEEK.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...                                       
LAKE EFFECT -SHRA ARE BEGINNING TO DSPT ACRS NRN ZONES, AS CLDS                 
ALSO BEGIN TO DECREASE. RUC APPEARS TOO MOIST AT LOW                            
LVLS...SUGGESTING BKN-OVC CONDITIONS MANY AREAS TNGT, AND PREFER                
TEH DRIER DEPICTION OF THE LCL WRF/NAM12 RUNS. TD`S ARE GNRLY IN                
THE 35 TO 40 RNG MOST SPOTS...WITH MDLS INDICATING POTNL FOR                    
COLDEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE WRN CATSKILLS AS 925-850 FLOW TURNS                  
MORE NRLY REDUCING LAKE ONTARIO INFLUENCES. WE ADDED SULLIVAN                   
COUNTY TO THE FROST ADVISORY FOR THIS REASON. JUST SOME MINOR                   
TWEEKS TO THE ZONES/GRIDS IN THE EVNG UPDATE.                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...                             
CLEAR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH                       
PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. FROST WILL                
AGAIN BE A POSSIBILITY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH NEARLY IDEAL RADITIONAL                
COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                   
QUIET...EARLY FALL LIKEWX FOR THE FCST AREA THRU THE XTNDD PD. LRG              
SFC HI BLDS INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND HOLDS RDGG OVER THE NE               
US. HPR HGTS BLDS THRU THE PD SO DAY TIME TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE MID              
AND UPR 70S IN THE DRY AIR. SOME HINT THAT ENUF MOISTURE COULD                  
RETURN LATE FRI TO BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SHWRS BUT HAVE ELECTED TO              
KEEP THE FCST DRY FOR NOW AND SIMPLY AWAIT LTR MODEL RUNS.                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                      
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES ATTM WITH A FEW MVFR SHRA                    
IMPACTING RME. EXPECT A VERY GRADUAL CLEARING TREND OVER THE NEXT               
6 HOURS WITH SKIES GOING FROM BKN/OVC TO FEW/SCT. TOWARDS                       
MORNING...EXPECT VLIFR FOG AT ELM. FOG WILL BE MUCH LESS DENSE IF               
THE CLOUDINESS IS ABLE TO HANG ON THROUGH THE NIGHT. CURRENT                    
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS CLEARING BY AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT IF THE              
CLOUDS HOLD LONGER...THEN FOG WILL NOT BE AS BIG OF A PROBLEM.                  
EXPECT NO OVERNIGHT PROBLEMS OUTSIDE OF ELM. DIURNAL CU WILL POP                
UP THROUGHOUT THE AREA AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH BASES IN THE 4-5KFT                 
RANGE.                                                                          
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS NEAR 10KTS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT              
2-3 HOURS WITH WINDS 5 KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS                   
10 KTS OR LESS WILL REDEVELOP BY MID MORNING SUNDAY...REMAINING                 
MUCH LIGHTER THAN THEY WERE TODAY.                                              
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF                   
MORNING FOG /ESP AT ELM/ THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.                
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ038>040.                
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ009-022>025-            
     036-037-044>046-055>057-062.                                               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...MSE                                                                  
NEAR TERM...MSE                                                                 
SHORT TERM...MSE                                                                
LONG TERM...DGM                                                                 
AVIATION...JMA                                                                  
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
139 AM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
THE REMNANTS OF HUMBERTO WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND AFFECT THE                 
FORECAST AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM THE                  
NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY...WITH COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING                
IN BEHIND IT THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.                               
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...                                                   
BETWEEN 6 AND 12 UTC THE GFS BRINGS AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER ASCENT                
AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWFA. THAT/S NOT TOO FAR OFF               
FROM WHAT/S HAPPENING NOW...AND BY LATE TONIGHT I WOULDN/T BE                   
SURPRISED TO SEE AN AREA OF ORGANIZED PCPN MOVE INTO THE SW PART                
OF THE FA. THE LATEST RUC ALSO HAS AN H5 WAVE OVER THE WRN FA BY                
DAWN...SIMILAR TO THE GFS. I UPPED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY                
SOUTH AND WEST OF ASHEVILLE LATER TONIGHT...THOUGH IF THE PCPN                  
FOLLOWS THE GFS TIMING...CATEGORICAL COVERAGE MAY BE REALIZED                   
CLOSER TO 8 OR 9 UTC.                                                           
SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM W FRI WHILE                
DEEP MOISTURE FROM REMNANTS OF HUMBERTO MOVE OVER AREA. AT THE SAME             
TIME THE SFC BOUNDARY SURGES BACK N OVER S CWA PROVIDING LOW LEVEL              
CONVERGENCE. WENT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS CWA FRI WITH HIGHEST             
QPF MTNS AND ALONG ESCARPMENT FRI. NOT ESP UNSTABLE FRI BUT EXPECT A            
CHANCE OF TSTMS THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS LOW 80S S TO 70S N WITH             
SOME 60S IN THE MTNS.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...                                   
AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL PERSIST ALONG THE EAST COAST ON            
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A DRY POST FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE             
AREA SATURDAY...WITH NORTHERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW QUICKLY BREAKING UP               
CLOUDS IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND WARMING TEMPERATURES A FEW             
DEGREES ABOVE FRIDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL COOL INTO THE 50S...WITH A            
NORTHEAST WIND PREVENTING TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING DEW POINTS.                
THE MODEL DIFFER WITH REGARD TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON SUNDAY...WITH             
THE NAM SUPPORTING A CLOUDIER FORECAST IN AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE              
ATLANTIC. BOTH MODELS APPEAR TO HINT AT A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING ON            
THE FRONT OVER THE GULF STREAM IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH                
DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. SINCE THE GFS                
DOES SHOW SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE...CLOUD COVER WILL BE RAISED ON             
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES LOWERED A COUPLE OF                  
DEGREES...BUT POPS WILL NOT BE INTRODUCED AT THIS TIME.                         
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                         
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ALONG THE EASTERN                   
SEABOARD...WITH A COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.                
CLOUD COVER WILL BE RAISED INITIALLY IN THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER                
VALLE AND THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE EVEN THE DRY GFS SUGGEST SOME                   
MOISTURE WILL LINGER FORM THE WEAK FRONTAL WAVE ON MONDAY. THE GFS              
AGGRESSIVELY BRINGS MOISTURE WEST FROM THE ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHERN             
APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LEAVING IN THERE ON                     
THURSDAY...AS THE OLD SURFACE FRONT RETURNS WEST AND BACK TO THE                
COAST...AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND UPSLOPE FLOW INCREASE. SINCE THIS            
WOULD REPRESENT A RADICAL DEPARTURE FROM FORECAST CONTINUITY...FOR              
NOT SKY COVER WILL BE INCREASED MODESTLY FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED               
FORECAST.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                       
THE SITUATION LOOKS GRIM OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS UPSLOPE FLOW AND             
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AHEAD OF THE REMNANTS OF HUMBERTO SPREAD CLOUDS              
AND PRECIPITATION UP FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. CONDITIONS ARE IN            
THE PROCESS OF SLOW DETERIORATION AS OF 05Z AND ALL SITES SHOULD BE             
MVFR AT LEAST WITH VISIBILITY BY 08Z AT THE LATEST. UPSTREAM OBS                
SHOW IFR CEILINGS ACROSS N GA SO EXPECT SOME OF THAT TO SPREAD                  
ACROSS KAND/KAVL BY 10Z OR SO. THE VERY LOW CLOUDS COULD VERY WELL              
OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT KGSP/KCLT WILL BE                
KEPT HIGHER THAN THAT UNTIL A TREND IS ESTABLISHED. NEVERTHELESS...             
VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN TO IFR AROUND SUNRISE. THE POOR             
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE DAY WITH               
SLOW IMPROVEMENT BACK TO MVFR AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. THERE                
COULD BE SOME BRIEF VFR BREAKS IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT                           
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IT RIGHT NOW. SOUTHWESTERLY LOW                
LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE MVFR CLOUDS IN UNTIL SOME TIME IN THE                
LATE EVENING...WHEN THE FLOW STARTS TO VEER AROUND. THIS WILL NOT BE            
INCLUDED IN THIS ISSUANCE SINCE IT WILL HAPPEN VERY LATE IN THE                 
PERIOD.                                                                         
OUTLOOK FRI THROUGH SUN...CONVECTION LIKELY FRI AS A SFC WAVE MOVES             
THRU AREA. MVFR CIG AND VIS PSBL FRI MORNING AS UPSLOPE FLOW                    
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED            
TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY SAT WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR WEEKEND AS HIGH               
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...JAT                                                                  
NEAR TERM...RB                                                                  
SHORT TERM...JAT                                                                
LONG TERM...JAT                                                                 
AVIATION...PM                                                                   
</pre> sc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN                                          
1125 AM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007                                                     
.DISCUSSION...REMNANTS FROM HUMBERTO MOVING SLOWLY ENEWD NEAR CENTRAL           
MS/AL BORDER. COUPLE OF LARGE SHIELDS OF RAIN TO NORTHEAST OF                   
HUMBERTO THAT STRETCH THROUGH AND PAST OUR CWA. NORTHERN EDGE OF                
HUMBERTO SHIELD IN SOUTHERN TN SLIDING TO THE ENE. LOOKING AT                   
PRESENT MOVEMENT AND MODEL TRENDS THINK IT IS SAFE TO BACK OFF POPS             
SOMEWHAT IN THE NW CORNER OF CWA FOR THE REST OF AFTERNOON. HAVE                
BACKED POPS TO 40 PERCENT IN THAT CORNER. ELSEWHERE HIGH POPS RULE              
WITH 100 PERCENT POPS FOR ABOUT THE SOUTHERN 20 PERCENT OF THE AREA             
AND 80+ PERCENT POPS FOR ABOUT THE SOUTHEASTERN 1/2 OF AREA.                    
MODELS SHOW HUMBERTO CENTER CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AND TURN ALMOST                
DUE EAST...AND NCEP FORECASTER STATED AN EXPECTED LESSENING FROM                
THE OVERNIGHT RAIN RATES NORTHEAST OF HUMBERTO. SO HAVE KEPT QPF                
VALUES FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE...WITH BASIN-AVERAGE AMOUNTS AROUND 0.50             
INCH ALONG THE GA BORDER. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED BY SOME 1-3 INCH               
ISOLATED AMOUNTS...BUT THINK THAT PRIME FOCUS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE             
SOUTH OF ARE TODAY AND SOUTHEAST OF AREA TONIGHT.                               
06Z GFS MOVEMENT OF BACK EDGE OF RAIN IS WAY TOO FAST...NAM AND RUC             
LOOK MUCH MORE REASONABLE. PURE RADAR EXTRAPOLATION PUTS BACK EDGE              
OF PRECIP AT KCHA ABOUT 530 PM...AT KTYS AT 800 PM...CORNER OF SE               
TN 700 PM...AND NE CORNER OF TN AT 100 AM. THINK ENTIRE SHIELD WILL             
SHIFT EASTWARD AND ACCELERATE THE BACK EDGE A LITTLE FASTER THAN                
THESE ESTIMATES...ESPECIALLY FOR THE 100 AM ESTIMATE FOR NE CORNER              
OF TN.                                                                          
COLD FRONT STILL PRETTY FAR NORTHWEST AND WILL NOT AFFECT WEATHER               
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.                                                             
CURRENT TEMPS IN FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON LOOK VERY GOOD.                    
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN  78  63  79  55  81 / 100  40  10   0   0               
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  79  62  77  54  79 /  80  30  10   0   0    
OAK RIDGE, TN  79  60  76  52  78 /  60  20  10   0   0                         
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN  75  57  75  47  76 /  80  30  10   0   0                
&&                                                                              
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
TN...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GM                                                                              
</pre> tn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
404 AM CDT SUN SEP 16 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
OVERCAST LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS COVERING THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF                
THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. BACK EDGE RUNS FROM KSTC TO KULM WITH               
AN EASTWARD MOVEMENT AROUND 17 KNOTS. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO BREAK                
UP SOME DURING THE MORNING AS THEY MOVE EAST WITH SKIES BECOMING                
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. STRATUS HAS POPPED UP OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA             
WITH A MOVEMENT TO THE NORTH. RUC 925MB PROGS SHOW THIS EXPANDING               
RAPIDLY NORTHEAST THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVER EAST                     
CENTRAL MN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ALLOW FOR SOME OF THE                     
STRATUS MAKING IT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN THIS MORNING. GFS 300K                  
THETA SURFACE SHOWS THAT THE STRATUS WILL BE ONE OF OUR PROBLEMS                
DEVELOPING TONIGHT WITH SATURATION SETTING IN. OVERALL...STILL                  
PREFER THE 16/00Z GFS OVER THE NAM. USED THE GFS 24 HOURS AGO AND               
CONTINUED WITH THAT TREND THIS MORNING. THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH THE               
16/00Z NAM IS THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER MN ON TUESDAY. THE                 
16/00Z ECMWF...WHICH 24 HOURS AGO WAS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE NAM              
AND GFS...IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS. DO THINK THERE WILL BE              
A WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT ON TUESDAY BUT JUST NOT                 
THE DEPTH SHOWN BY THE NAM. AFTER SOME SUNSHINE TODAY...MOISTURE                
AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND                  
SOUTHERN CWA TONIGHT. ADDED POPS TO THESE AREAS. THINGS BECOME                  
PRETTY UNSTABLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF A                   
SEVERE STORM OR TWO DEVELOPED BY MONDAY MORNING DUE TO THE INTENSE              
LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND 30 KNOT WINDS 1500 FEET ABOVE THE               
GROUND. MONDAY STILL LOOKS BAD FOR SOUTHERN MN IN THE AFTERNOON                 
AND EVENING FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES.                
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE CHANCE FOR TORNADOES IN THE HWO THIS               
MORNING. A WARM FRONT IS SHOWN TO MAKE IT TO NEAR THE MN RIVER BY               
MONDAY EVENING. SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE                 
EXPECTED. 6 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS OF 4 MILLIBARS ARE CENTERED NEAR                
MANKATO. 0-1KM SHEAR IS 30-35 KNOTS WITH 0-6KM SHEAR NEAR 50                    
KNOTS. 40 KNOT WINDS AT 850MB POKE ALL THE WAY INTO KMSP. THE NAM               
SHOWS A SIMILAR SCENARIO BUT EVEN WORSE. ELEVATED SEVERE STORMS                 
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THE                  
ACTION DOESN`T STOP. ALTHOUGH THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE                 
AREA MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE MN CWA               
ON TUESDAY. MORE CONVECTION IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY                      
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE EASTERN CWA AS THE AIRMASS                       
DESTABILIZES. STILL BELIEVE WE WILL HAVE A BREAK ON WEDNESDAY.                  
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SHOWN TO APPROACH FROM THE WSW                     
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE              
AREA WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS/LOWS FOR THE NEXT               
72 HOURS NEAR MAV VALUES.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1234 AM CDT SUN SEP 16 2007/                        
AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                   
MID LEVEL CLOUDS TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS ERN MN AND WRN WI                      
OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE FIELDS ON THE MODELS INDICATE THE ATMOSPHERE                
WILL ATTEMPT TO SATURATE LOWER AS DAWN APPROACHES. HAVE HINTED AT               
THIS AT EAU...THOUGH VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL GIVEN DRY                 
LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FT. WINDS SHOULD NOT BE AS BREEZY TODAY AS                  
GRADIENT YESTERDAY WAS SET UP BY DEPTH OF THE DEPARTING HIGH                    
PRESSURE. AS THAT HAS WEAKENED AND SHIFTED WELL SOUTHEAST...                    
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 7 TO 11 KTS SHOULD BE ABOUT IT.                 
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT TONIGHT MAY PROMOTE SOME SHOWERS/T-STORMS              
TOWARDS AXN AND STC...HOWEVER DEVELOPMENT TIME LOOKS BEYOND                     
CURRENT TAF PERIOD. MAY ALSO BE SOME STRATUS IN THAT TIME AT OTHER              
TAF SITES.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RAH/MTF                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
316 AM CDT SUN SEP 16 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE WHETHER ANY              
CONVECTION CAN FIRE TO OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS MID                 
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION SETS UP...IN THE VICINITY OF A DEVELOPING              
WARM FRONT. THE NAM/ECMWF ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN THIS SCENARIO              
ALLOWING CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS SCNTRL NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST             
KANSAS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE SREF/GFS/RUC          
ARE NOT AS ROBUST. AM THINKING THAT IF SOMETHING DOES DEVELOP...IT              
SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS NERN KS/NWRN MO THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY                   
EVENING...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS CLOSELY TO SEE IF IT COULD              
SNEAK INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA 21Z-03Z TIME FRAME.                               
THE WARM FRONT DOES PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.             
DESPITE SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WHICH COULD GENERATE               
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG IT...BUT MOSTLY EAST OF              
THE REGION WHERE THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FOCUSES. WILL KEEP               
THINGS MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT IN OUR AREA WITH GFS/SREF INDICATING                
TOO SMALL OF CHANCE TO MENTION. HOWEVER...AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT                
WE COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP ACROSS NERN NEBRASKA             
WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE AND WHERE THETAE CONVERGENCE MIGHT            
BE A LITTLE STRONGER. IF THIS PRECIP GETS GOING...IT SHOULD LINGER              
INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS NERN NEBRASKA...WITH FOCUSING SHIFTING               
FURTHER NORTH OUT OF OUR AREA ALONG THE WARM FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON             
AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS CAPPED FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA.                 
AS THE CAP WEAKENS MONDAY EVENING...WE SHOULD SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP            
SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO OUR CWFA...SOME OF WHICH COULD                
BE SEVERE. NAM HAS ABOUT 45KTS OF BULK SHEAR ALONG WITH 3000 J/KG               
OF MUCPAE MONDAY EVENING WHICH COULD RESULT IN SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURE          
WITH WIND AND HAIL POTENTIAL BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WILL BOOST POPS INTO              
THE 50 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS NORTHERN CWFA WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY          
POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN CWFA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THE FRONT THEN SLOWLY             
SLIDES SOUTH DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH A DECENT UPPER WAVE MOVING             
THROUGH AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. FEEL CONFIDENT BOOSTING            
POPS INTO THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. DEGREE           
OF INSTABILITY WILL BE A CONCERN ON TUESDAY...BUT STRONGER STORMS               
COULD DEVELOP AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ARRIVES. GFS INDICATING                
SHEAR INCREASES TO 50 TO 60 KTS BY THAT TIME WITH UP TO 1000 J/KG               
OF MUCAPE AVAILABLE WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST A                   
SLIGHT RISK OF MORE SEVERE STORMS.                                              
PRECIP WILL LINGERING TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH...ENDING          
ACROSS THE NWRN CWFA BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL BUT               
THEN BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY WITH             
A CONTINUED CHANCE OF PRECIP AS IT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THIS TIME.               
ONE MORE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY BASED ON THE              
00Z OPERATIONAL GFS...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE                   
DON`T REALLY BRING THE FRONT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO AFFECT US. WE                  
CURRENTLY HAVE A DRY FORECAST DURING THAT TIME AND MADE NO CHANGES              
THAT FAR OUT.                                                                   
REGARDING TEMPS...HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REBOUND NICELY OVER YESTERDAY`S            
CHILLY READINGS. UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY...BUT            
THEN INTO THE LOWER 90S ON MONDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. MILD           
NIGHTS IN STORE THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS TOO AS WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED         
TO DECOUPLE RESULTING IN READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KOMA/KLNK THRU PD. HOWEVER...NORTHWARD               
EXPANDING STRATUS DECK OVR SCENTRAL NEB EARLY THIS MORNING WILL                 
AFFECT KOFK DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN               
SOME IFR CIGS AT THAT SITE. OTHERWISE...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WL                  
CONT TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SITES THRU MUCH OF THE DAY AS MID                  
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. SERLY WINDS EXPECTED              
THRU TAF PD AS SFC LO PRES TROF SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE HI PLAINS.               
&&                                                                              
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DEWALD/GRIFFIS                                                                  
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
136 AM EDT SUN SEP 16 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL WEATHER TO CENTRAL NEW                   
YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA INTO MONDAY. AREAS OF FROST WILL                
DEVELOP IN NORMALLY COLDER AREAS THIS MORNING, AND AGAIN LATE                   
TONIGHT, AS TEMPERATURES FALL TO THE 30S. A WARMING TREND WILL                  
BEGIN MONDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY THE               
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...                                         
LAKE EFFECT -SHRA ARE BEGINNING TO DSPT ACRS NRN ZONES, AS CLDS                 
ALSO BEGIN TO DECREASE. RUC APPEARS TOO MOIST AT LOW                            
LVLS...SUGGESTING BKN-OVC CONDITIONS MANY AREAS TNGT, AND PREFER                
TEH DRIER DEPICTION OF THE LCL WRF/NAM12 RUNS. TD`S ARE GNRLY IN                
THE 35 TO 40 RNG MOST SPOTS...WITH MDLS INDICATING POTNL FOR                    
COLDEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE WRN CATSKILLS AS 925-850 FLOW TURNS                  
MORE NRLY REDUCING LAKE ONTARIO INFLUENCES. WE ADDED SULLIVAN                   
COUNTY TO THE FROST ADVISORY FOR THIS REASON. JUST SOME MINOR                   
TWEEKS TO THE ZONES/GRIDS IN THE EVNG UPDATE.                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...                          
CLEAR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH                       
PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. FROST WILL                
AGAIN BE A POSSIBILITY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH NEARLY IDEAL RADITIONAL                
COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                   
QUIET...EARLY FALL LIKEWX FOR THE FCST AREA THRU THE XTNDD PD. LRG              
SFC HI BLDS INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND HOLDS RDGG OVER THE NE               
US. HPR HGTS BLDS THRU THE PD SO DAY TIME TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE MID              
AND UPR 70S IN THE DRY AIR. SOME HINT THAT ENUF MOISTURE COULD                  
RETURN LATE FRI TO BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SHWRS BUT HAVE ELECTED TO              
KEEP THE FCST DRY FOR NOW AND SIMPLY AWAIT LTR MODEL RUNS.                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                      
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES ATTM. LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS STILL              
ONGOING AT SYR AND AT TIMES RME AND ITH. GRADUAL CLEARING TREND                 
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SKIES GOING FROM BKN/OVC TO FEW/SCT.                   
AROUND 11Z ELM MAY HAVE IFR RADIATIONAL VALLEY FOG. SKIES THERE                 
HAVE BEEN CLEAR THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH A LIGHT TO CALM WIND.                   
DIURNAL CU WILL POP UP THROUGHOUT THE AREA AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH                 
BASES IN THE 4-5KFT RANGE. ALL BUT SYR AND RME EXPECTED TO BE SCT.              
AT SYR AND RME BKN TO OVC STILL BUT WINDS FIELDS WEAKENING SO LESS              
LAKE MOISTURE. SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWING LAKE HURON MOISTURE HAS               
NOT BEEN EXTENDING THAT FAR INLAND AND CERTAINLY NOT CLOSE TO LAKE              
ONTARIO.                                                                        
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THIS MORNING WILL                      
INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KTS TODAY. THIS EVENING WINDS GO LIGHT AND                  
VARIABLE TO CALM.                                                               
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF                   
MORNING FOG /ESP AT ELM/ THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.                
LIFR FOG AT ELM EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING.                           
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
PA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ038>040.                 
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ009-022>025-             
     036-037-044>046-055>057-062.                                               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...MSE                                                                  
NEAR TERM...MSE                                                                 
SHORT TERM...MSE                                                                
LONG TERM...DGM                                                                 
AVIATION...TAC                                                                  
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                       
421 AM EDT SUN SEP 16 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER PA TODAY AND CONTINUE TO SLIP                
EAST TO SIT OVER THE EAST COAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK                  
WEEK...BRINGING A TASTE OF FALL TO THE REGION. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS                
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE AND MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY                   
INCREASE DURING THE WEEK...WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.                      
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS BY MID WEEK AND                 
LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...                                       
LOW CLOUD ENHANCEMENT IR PICS AND SFC OBS SHOW A WIDE AREA OF HIGH-             
BASED STRATO CU OVER THE NC MTNS AND PARTS OF NW PA RIGHT                       
NOW...PRETTY MUCH RIGHT OVER THE CURRENT FROST/FREEZE AREAS.                    
SOME CLEARING OVER WARREN COUNTY AND FAR WRN NY MAY SLIP EAST                   
THROUGH SUNRISE...THOUGH. BUT MESONET TEMPS ARE RUNNING IN THE                  
U30S AND L40S FOR THE MOST PART. WILL TAKE A STEP DOWN AND                      
REDUCE/CANCEL THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNING AREA TO A FROST                        
ADVSRY...BUT LEAVE THE REST OF THE FROST ADV AREA ALONE. IT IS                  
JUST AN ADVISORY AFTER ALL...AND PATCHES OF CLEARING DID ALLOW                  
KBFD TO DROP TO 34F EARLIER BEFORE THE CLOUDS MOVED IN. IT COULD                
STILL GET COOL ENOUGH /AGAIN/ BEFORE SUNRISE TO FROST UP.                       
WINDS WILL TURN TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION IN THE CLOUD                  
LAYER...AND TAKE IT AWAY. SUNSHINE WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR MORE                    
CELLULAR LOOKING CU IN THE AFTERNOON - RATHER THAN A SHEET OF                   
STRATUS. WILL KEEP THE SE SUNNY. TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE 60S                 
FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT NEAR 70 IN THE HARRISBURG AREA...AND                 
THE WRN HIGHLANDS COULD STAY IN THE 50S.                                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /4 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...                        
PROBLEMS TONIGHT ARE EXACTLY THE SAME AS RIGHT NOW. WILL THERE BE               
ANY CLOUDS - AND HOW COLD WILL IT GET? WILL USE BOTH CLIMATOLOGY                
AND GOOD OL PATTERN RECOGNITION TO HELP...AND THINK THAT THE SKIES              
WILL BE MUCH MORE CLEAR TONIGHT THAN EARLY THIS MORNING...AND LLVL              
WINDS WILL BE CALM FOR THE MOST PART AS THE HIGH AND THE MUCH                   
DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL BE RIGHT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF PA.                      
GRANTED...A LIGHT SW FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP IN THE 8H LEVEL NEAR                
THE TOP OF THE INVERSION LATER TONIGHT...BUT LITTLE/NO MOISTURE                 
WILL BE UPSTREAM - AT LEAST COMPARED TO WHAT THE LAKE IS                        
CONTRIBUTING RIGHT NOW. ALSO...THE SECOND NIGHT OF HIGH PRESSURE                
IS USUALLY COLDER THAN THE FIRST. WILL THEREFORE GO COLDER ON THE               
WHOLE TONIGHT THAN WHAT IS HAPPENING RIGHT NOW.                                 
WILL POST A WIDER FROST ADVSRY AREA AND MENTION PATCHY FROST IN                 
ZFP TEXT AS FAR SOUTH AS GETTYSBURG/THOMASVILLE AND MEYERSDALE                  
/BUT NOT POST ADVISORY THERE AS AREAL COVERAGE WILL NOT BE AS                   
WIDESPREAD AS UP NORTH/. WILL ALSO POST ANOTHER FREEZE WATCH FOR                
POTTER AND MCKEAN COS FOR TONIGHT.                                              
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                   
MODELS/ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DRY FCAST THRU NEXT WEEK                   
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH WILL DOMINATE THRU                 
THE PD. ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S.              
FOR MID/LATE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING WRN TROF...LEADING TO              
A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP FOR THE AREA. SRLY RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW                 
FOR GRADUALLY INCREASING HEAT/HUMIDITY AS TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL              
TUE-SAT.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                      
VFR AND LIGHT WINDS REPORTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS OF 05Z. LAKE           
EFFECT STRATOCU ACROSS THE NW MTNS SHOULD DISSIPATE AND SHIFT                   
NORTH OF THE NY BORDER BY DAWN. CALM WIND AND COLD AM TEMPS WILL                
ALMOST CERTAINLY LEAD TO TYPICAL DENDRITIC PATTERN OF DENSE FOG                 
IN THE DEEP RIVER VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENIES FOR SEVERAL HOURS                  
ARND DAWN. AMONG CENTRAL PA/S TERMINAL SITES...IPT APPEARS THE MOST             
SUSCEPTIBLE TO A PERIOD OF FOG NR DAWN...DUE TO PROXIMITY TO SUSQ               
RIVER. CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY AND LATEST RUC RH DATA ALSO SUGGEST              
A GOOD CHC FOR A PERIOD OF FOG AT BFD AND JST...MAINLY BTWN                     
10-13Z.                                                                         
DOMINANT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US WILL CONTINUE                   
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH GENLY VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS. IFR CONDS                 
IN ERY MRNG VLY AND GNFG APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH EARLY WEEK...THEN                
LESS LIKELY BY LATE WEEK DUE TO MILDER AM TEMPS.                                
&&                                                                              
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ004>006-                      
010>012-037-041-042.                                                            
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR                       
PAZ005-006.                                                                     
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ004-010>012-                 
017-018-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-058.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO                                                              
NEAR TERM...DANGELO                                                             
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR                                                     
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL                                                           
AVIATION...FITZGERALD                                                           
</pre> pa                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                       
141 AM EDT SUN SEP 16 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
COLD HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED OVER NORTHERN INDIANA...WILL DOMINATE             
OUR WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...BRINGING A TASTE OF FALL              
TO THE REGION. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL SLOWLY SLIP EASTWARD                 
AND OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST DURING THE WORK WEEK ALLOWING                  
TEMPERATURES MODERATE AND MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE.                       
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS FROM MID WEEK INTO              
NEXT WEEKEND.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...                                         
SLOWLY DECREASING SCT-BKN STRATO CU DECK WAS NOTED ON REGIONAL 3.9              
UM SATELLITE IMAGERY. LOCATION OF THE SFC-850 HPA HIGH PRESSURE                 
RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT NW BREEZE THROUGH ABOUT                
06-09Z BEFORE A POSSIBLE DROP TO NEAR CALM FOR A FEW HRS AROUND                 
DAYBREAK.                                                                       
HOURLY TEMPS ARE RUNNING VERY CLOSE TO SHORT TERM ENSEMBLE MOS AND              
FORECAST MIN TEMPS ARE PATTERNED CLOSE TO THIS GUIDANCE.                        
LARGE 20-25F AIR WATER TEMP SPREAD LATE TONIGHT WILL BE CONDUCIVE               
FOR VALLEY FOG FORMATION...ESPECIALLY IF THE LIGHT NNW BREEZE                   
TAILS OFF SOONER THAN ANTICIPATED. PATCHY 1/2SM VALLEY FOG HAS                  
BEEN PAINTED IN OUR WEB GRIDS AND INCLUDED IN THE ZONE TEXT FOR                 
THE EVENING UPDATE.                                                             
CURRENT FREEZE WARNING/FROST ADVISORY CONFIGURATION FOR LATE                    
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE. SLIGHTLY MORE IN THE                  
WAY OF FROST /AND FREEZING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NRN MTNS/ IS LIKELY            
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD.               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...                          
OVERNIGHT EXPECT SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AT WORST TO CONTINUE              
TO THIN AS THE LAKE HURON CONNECTION IS LOSS AND FAVORABLE FETCH                
DECREASES ALONG WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES               
WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY MORNING PATCHY RADIATIONAL RIVER VALLEY                
FOG. EXPECT SCATTERED CU TO ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP BY MID SUNDAY                    
MORNING BUT WILL BE MORE SOLIDLY CAPPED AS INVERSION HEIGHTS                    
REMAIN AROUND 800 MB...WHICH WILL HAVE DRIED SUBSTANTIALLY BY 12Z SUN.          
A SUNNY AFTERNOON EXPECTED FOR ALL...WITH EARLY AUTUMN LIKE                     
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER WINDS MAKING FOR A VERY PLEASANT AFTERNOON.            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                   
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IN STORE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH               
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER A GOOD PORTION OF CENTRAL PA.                
HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF AREAS/PATCHY FROST...AND MAY NEED TO                  
ISSUE ADDITIONAL FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS DEPENDING ON HOW COLD WE                 
GET TNT. MOS NUMBERS LOOK SLIGHTLY COLDER FOR THE CENTRAL/EASTERN               
ZONES TOMORROW NIGHT...WHICH LINES UP BEST WITH THE ANOMALOUS                   
PW/S.                                                                           
MODELS/ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DRY FCAST THRU NEXT WEEK                   
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH WILL DOMINATE THRU                 
THE PD. ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S.              
FOR MID/LATE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING WRN TROF...LEADING                 
TO A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP FOR THE AREA. SRLY RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW              
FOR GRADUALLY INCREASING HEAT/HUMIDITY AS TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL              
TUE-SAT.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                      
VFR AND LIGHT WINDS REPORTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS OF 05Z. LAKE           
EFFECT STRATOCU ACROSS THE NW MTNS SHOULD DISSIPATE AND SHIFT                   
NORTH OF THE NY BORDER BY DAWN. CALM WIND AND COLD AM TEMPS WILL                
ALMOST CERTAINLY LEAD TO TYPICAL DENDRITIC PATTERN OF DENSE FOG                 
IN THE DEEP RIVER VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENIES FOR SEVERAL HOURS                  
ARND DAWN. AMONG CENTRAL PA/S TERMINAL SITES...IPT APPEARS THE MOST             
SUSCEPTIBLE TO A PERIOD OF FOG NR DAWN...DUE TO PROXIMITY TO SUSQ               
RIVER. CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY AND LATEST RUC RH DATA ALSO SUGGEST              
A GOOD CHC FOR A PERIOD OF FOG AT BFD AND JST...MAINLY BTWN                     
10-13Z.                                                                         
DOMINANT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US WILL CONTINUE                   
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH GENLY VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS. IFR CONDS                 
IN ERY MRNG VLY AND GNFG APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH EARLY WEEK...THEN                
LESS LIKELY BY LATE WEEK DUE TO MILDER AM TEMPS.                                
&&                                                                              
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ005-006.                      
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ004-010>012-                  
037-041-042.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT                                                              
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT                                                             
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR                                                             
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL                                                           
AVIATION...FITZGERALD                                                           
</pre> pa                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1045 AM CDT SUN SEP 16 2007                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISSUED 1044 AM CDT SUN SEP 16 2007                                              
VORTMAX EASILY VISIBLE EMBEDDED IN MID-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD OVER                   
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS... MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER                
VALLEY. CLOUDS RAPIDLY DISSIPATING NORTH AND WEST OF I-72... AND                
MORE SLOWLY FURTHER SOUTHEAST. SUBSIDENCE AREA SHOULD MIGRATE SE                
AS THE UPPER VORTMAX SLIDES OUT... SO STILL EXPECT AN OVERALL                   
CLOUD COVER DECREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. EITHER WAY... MOST                  
SUNSHINE SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA.                    
WILL FRESHEN UP CLOUD COVER TRENDS AND MAKE SLIGHT DOWNWARD                     
ADJUSTMENTS IN MAX TEMP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.                    
UPDATED PRODUCTS SHOULD BE OUT BY 11 AM.                                        
HARDIMAN                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISSUED 640 AM CDT SUN SEP 16 2007                                               
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z/MON ACROSS THE FIVE                   
CENTRAL IL TAF SITES. SHORT WAVE OVER CENTRAL IL WILL MOVE SE INTO              
KY BY EARLY AFTERNOON/18Z. WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS SE OF I-55            
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH 14Z WITH JUST VCSH ALONG I-72 TAF SITES NEXT              
HOUR OR TWO. 4 TO 8 KFT BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUD DECK TODAY THOUGH              
I-74 TAF SITES AT BMI AND CMI ARE ON EDGE OF THIS DECK AND MAY BE               
SCATTERED AT TIMES TODAY. RUC/NAM 800 MB RH USED FOR DECREASING                 
CLOUDS TO SCATTERED BETWEEN 20Z AND 24Z THIS AFTERNOON. COULD BE A              
LIGHT FOG AT PIA LATE TONIGHT AFTER 09Z AND JUST HAVE 5SM BR.                   
HUETTL                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
ISSUED 330 AM CDT SUN SEP 16 2007                                               
00Z SHORT RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUE AND FOLLOWED               
ALONG WITH SIMILAR GUIDANCE TEMPS. SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WARM               
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN EXITING CENTRAL IL/MID MS VALLEY BY MID MORNING           
ALONG WITH WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. FORECAST CONCERN IS WHEN             
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR TODAY OR TONIGHT. OTHERWISE BIG WARM UP STILL IN              
STORE FOR CENTRAL/SE IL THROUGH TUE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER WV            
DRIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT AND MON WHILE STRONG UPPER LEVEL             
RIDGE BUILDS INTO IL AND THE EASTERN STATES BY EARLY WORK WEEK.                 
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER CONVECTION CHANCES RETURN TO                  
CENTRAL IL WED WITH EXTENDED MODELS DIFFERING ON HOW FAR SOUTH                  
FRONT GETS WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S.                  
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...                                           
0830Z/330 AM RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER             
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IL ALONG AND SOUTH OF A MACOMB TO LAFETTE IN               
LINE AND MOVING ESE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NOTED OVER SOUTHERN IL              
SOUTH OF I-64/MOUNT VERNON AND THESE TO STAY SOUTH OF ILX CWFA.                 
SHORT WAVE OVER WEST CENTRAL IL AND WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN AHEAD            
OF THIS FEATURE CAUSING WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING PAST 6               
HOURS OR SO. CLOUD DECK OF 5 TO 10 KFT FROM CENTRAL IL UPSTREAM                 
ACORSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN IA/MO. SHORT WAVE IS WEAKENING AS ITS                
ZIPPING ESE INTO CENTRAL IL AT PREDAWN. SURFACE MAP SHOWS LARGE 1026            
MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER WV AND RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES            
AND OHIO VALLEY WHILE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS NEAR THE GULF COAST AND              
ARCHING UP THE HIGH PLAINS. MILDER TEMPS OF 50 TO 55 OVER CENTRAL IL            
WHILE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.                                          
MODELS TAKE SHORT WAVE FROM WEST CENTRAL IL INTO KY BY NOON ENDING              
WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL IL SOUTH OF PEORIA BY               
MID MORNING. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SKIES               
BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY WITH SOME DRYING IN WAKE OF SHORT WAVE PER                
MODEL LAYERED RH FIELD. HIGHS 70 TO 75F BUT WILL BE COOLER IF CLOUDS            
STICK AROUND LONGER IN THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW MON             
AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE                
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO IL.            
WARMER HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY                  
SKIES. EVEN WARMER TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90F                  
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND BREEZY SSW WINDS.                                   
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...                                     
KEPT TUE EVENING DRY OVER IL RIVER VALLEY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF                 
CONVECTION AFTER MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT NW OF THE IL RIVER AS FRONTAL               
BOUNDARY APPROACHES NW IL WED MORNING. GFS MAY BE A BIG TOO QUICK               
WITH FRONT CONSIDERING STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED ACROSS MUCH            
OF THE EASTERN U.S. CONTINUE 20 TO 30% CHANCE OF CONVECTION FROM                
I-55 NW AS FRONT MOVES INTO NW IL WHILE STAYING DRY SE OF I-55 WITH             
MORE SUNSHINE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN IL. LOW PRESSURE EJECTING NE FROM             
EASTERN CO AND DEEPENING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THU TO LIFT FRONT             
BACK NORTH OF IL. THIS TO KEEP CENTRAL IL DRY THU/FRI WITH CONTINUED            
SUMMERTIME WARMTH WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. SO LAST WEEK OF                 
SUMMER LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM AND ON THE DRY SIDE ACROSS CENTRAL/SE              
IL.                                                                             
HUETTL                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
653 AM CDT SUN SEP 16 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISSUED 330 AM CDT SUN SEP 16 2007                                               
00Z SHORT RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUE AND FOLLOWED               
ALONG WITH SIMILAR GUIDANCE TEMPS. SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WARM               
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN EXITING CENTRAL IL/MID MS VALLEY BY MID MORNING           
ALONG WITH WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. FORECAST CONCERN IS WHEN             
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR TODAY OR TONIGHT. OTHERWISE BIG WARM UP STILL IN              
STORE FOR CENTRAL/SE IL THROUGH TUE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER WV            
DRIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT AND MON WHILE STRONG UPPER LEVEL             
RIDGE BUILDS INTO IL AND THE EASTERN STATES BY EARLY WORK WEEK.                 
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER CONVECTION CHANCES RETURN TO                  
CENTRAL IL WED WITH EXTENDED MODELS DIFFERING ON HOW FAR SOUTH                  
FRONT GETS WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S.                  
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...                                           
0830Z/330 AM RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER             
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IL ALONG AND SOUTH OF A MACOMB TO LAFETTE IN               
LINE AND MOVING ESE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NOTED OVER SOUTHERN IL              
SOUTH OF I-64/MOUNT VERNON AND THESE TO STAY SOUTH OF ILX CWFA.                 
SHORT WAVE OVER WEST CENTRAL IL AND WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN AHEAD            
OF THIS FEATURE CAUSING WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING PAST 6               
HOURS OR SO. CLOUD DECK OF 5 TO 10 KFT FROM CENTRAL IL UPSTREAM                 
ACORSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN IA/MO. SHORT WAVE IS WEAKENING AS ITS                
ZIPPING ESE INTO CENTRAL IL AT PREDAWN. SURFACE MAP SHOWS LARGE 1026            
MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER WV AND RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES            
AND OHIO VALLEY WHILE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS NEAR THE GULF COAST AND              
ARCHING UP THE HIGH PLAINS. MILDER TEMPS OF 50 TO 55 OVER CENTRAL IL            
WHILE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.                                          
MODELS TAKE SHORT WAVE FROM WEST CENTRAL IL INTO KY BY NOON ENDING              
WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL IL SOUTH OF PEORIA BY               
MID MORNING. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SKIES               
BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY WITH SOME DRYING IN WAKE OF SHORT WAVE PER                
MODEL LAYERED RH FIELD. HIGHS 70 TO 75F BUT WILL BE COOLER IF CLOUDS            
STICK AROUND LONGER IN THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW MON             
AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE                
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO IL.            
WARMER HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY                  
SKIES. EVEN WARMER TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90F                  
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND BREEZY SSW WINDS.                                   
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...                                     
KEPT TUE EVENING DRY OVER IL RIVER VALLEY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF                 
CONVECTION AFTER MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT NW OF THE IL RIVER AS FRONTAL               
BOUNDARY APPROACHES NW IL WED MORNING. GFS MAY BE A BIG TOO QUICK               
WITH FRONT CONSIDERING STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED ACROSS MUCH            
OF THE EASTERN U.S. CONTINUE 20 TO 30% CHANCE OF CONVECTION FROM                
I-55 NW AS FRONT MOVES INTO NW IL WHILE STAYING DRY SE OF I-55 WITH             
MORE SUNSHINE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN IL. LOW PRESSURE EJECTING NE FROM             
EASTERN CO AND DEEPENING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THU TO LIFT FRONT             
BACK NORTH OF IL. THIS TO KEEP CENTRAL IL DRY THU/FRI WITH CONTINUED            
SUMMERTIME WARMTH WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. SO LAST WEEK OF                 
SUMMER LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM AND ON THE DRY SIDE ACROSS CENTRAL/SE              
IL.                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISSUED 640 AM CDT SUN SEP 16 2007                                               
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z/MON ACROSS THE FIVE                   
CENTRAL IL TAF SITES. SHORT WAVE OVER CENTRAL IL WILL MOVE SE INTO              
KY BY EARLY AFTERNOON/18Z. WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS SE OF I-55            
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH 14Z WITH JUST VCSH ALONG I-72 TAF SITES NEXT              
HOUR OR TWO. 4 TO 8 KFT BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUD DECK TODAY THOUGH              
I-74 TAF SITES AT BMI AND CMI ARE ON EDGE OF THIS DECK AND MAY BE               
SCATTERED AT TIMES TODAY. RUC/NAM 800 MB RH USED FOR DECREASING                 
CLOUDS TO SCATTERED BETWEEN 20Z AND 24Z THIS AFTERNOON. COULD BE A              
LIGHT FOG AT PIA LATE TONIGHT AFTER 09Z AND JUST HAVE 5SM BR.                   
HUETTL                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
632 AM CDT SUN SEP 16 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW                                     
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 404 AM CDT SUN SEP 16 2007/                               
OVERCAST LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS COVERING THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF                
THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. BACK EDGE RUNS FROM KSTC TO KULM WITH               
AN EASTWARD MOVEMENT AROUND 17 KNOTS. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO BREAK                
UP SOME DURING THE MORNING AS THEY MOVE EAST WITH SKIES BECOMING                
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. STRATUS HAS POPPED UP OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA             
WITH A MOVEMENT TO THE NORTH. RUC 925MB PROGS SHOW THIS EXPANDING               
RAPIDLY NORTHEAST THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVER EAST                     
CENTRAL MN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ALLOW FOR SOME OF THE                     
STRATUS MAKING IT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN THIS MORNING. GFS 300K                  
THETA SURFACE SHOWS THAT THE STRATUS WILL BE ONE OF OUR PROBLEMS                
DEVELOPING TONIGHT WITH SATURATION SETTING IN. OVERALL...STILL                  
PREFER THE 16/00Z GFS OVER THE NAM. USED THE GFS 24 HOURS AGO AND               
CONTINUED WITH THAT TREND THIS MORNING. THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH THE               
16/00Z NAM IS THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER MN ON TUESDAY. THE                 
16/00Z ECMWF...WHICH 24 HOURS AGO WAS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE NAM              
AND GFS...IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS. DO THINK THERE WILL BE              
A WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT ON TUESDAY BUT JUST NOT                 
THE DEPTH SHOWN BY THE NAM. AFTER SOME SUNSHINE TODAY...MOISTURE                
AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND                  
SOUTHERN CWA TONIGHT. ADDED POPS TO THESE AREAS. THINGS BECOME                  
PRETTY UNSTABLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF A                   
SEVERE STORM OR TWO DEVELOPED BY MONDAY MORNING DUE TO THE INTENSE              
LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND 30 KNOT WINDS 1500 FEET ABOVE THE               
GROUND. MONDAY STILL LOOKS BAD FOR SOUTHERN MN IN THE AFTERNOON                 
AND EVENING FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES.                
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE CHANCE FOR TORNADOES IN THE HWO THIS               
MORNING. A WARM FRONT IS SHOWN TO MAKE IT TO NEAR THE MN RIVER BY               
MONDAY EVENING. SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE                 
EXPECTED. 6 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS OF 4 MILLIBARS ARE CENTERED NEAR                
MANKATO. 0-1KM SHEAR IS 30-35 KNOTS WITH 0-6KM SHEAR NEAR 50                    
KNOTS. 40 KNOT WINDS AT 850MB POKE ALL THE WAY INTO KMSP. THE NAM               
SHOWS A SIMILAR SCENARIO BUT EVEN WORSE. ELEVATED SEVERE STORMS                 
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THE                  
ACTION DOESN`T STOP. ALTHOUGH THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE                 
AREA MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE MN CWA               
ON TUESDAY. MORE CONVECTION IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY                      
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE EASTERN CWA AS THE AIRMASS                       
DESTABILIZES. STILL BELIEVE WE WILL HAVE A BREAK ON WEDNESDAY.                  
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SHOWN TO APPROACH FROM THE WSW                     
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE              
AREA WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS/LOWS FOR THE NEXT               
72 HOURS NEAR MAV VALUES.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
OVERCAST DECK CIRCA 5K-6K FEET WILL CONTINUE EXITING TO THE                     
EAST...CLEARING KMSP SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK...KRNH BETWEEN 14Z                  
AND 15Z...AND KEAU AROUND THE NOON HOUR. NEXT CONCERN IS STRATUS                
DECK THAT DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT OVER EASTERN NE...AND IS BEGINNING                
TO BLOSSOM ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. WHILE THERE                   
SHOULD BE SOME REDUCTION IN THE EXPANSION OF THE DECK ONCE THE                  
SUN RISES...THINK THAT KRWF MAY SEE A PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS THIS               
MORNING...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 925MB RUC RELATIVE HUMIDITY                 
PROGS. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL AGAIN                            
TODAY...ALTHOUGH LOOSER GRADIENT TODAY SHOULD KEEP MAX SPEEDS AT                
OR BELOW 15 KNOTS. STRATUS DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z               
TONIGHT...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA.                    
ADDITIONALLY...ELEVATED INSTABILITY APPEARS TO INCREASE NORTH OF THE            
WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT...SO SHRA/TS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED IN FUTURE                
ISSUANCES.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RAH/LS                                                                          
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
956 AM CDT SUN SEP 16 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE                    
ORGANIZES ACROSS THE N ROCKIES. CONVECTIVE TEMPS NEAR 100F...SO                 
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES A GOOD BET. THERE IS A POCKET OF LOW CLOUDS                  
JUST SOUTH OF THE FA. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY WOULD INDICATE                   
THESE CLOUDS HALTING THEIR NORTHWARD MOVEMENT...AND DISSIPATING                 
FROM THE EDGES. TAMDAR SOUNDING FROM KFSD SHOWS A SHALLOW CLOUD                 
LAYER...TO 900MB. 12Z NAM/RUC INDICATES THESE CLOUDS TO REMAIN                  
SOUTH TODAY. THIS MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING SHALLOW CLOUD LAYER AND               
WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING TODAY...WILL STICK WITH CURRENT                      
FORECAST OF NO CLOUDS. THUS...FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE AND NO                
UPDATE PLANNED.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR TO CONTINUE WITH WINDS UP TO 15 KTS FOR TODAY.                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT SUN SEP 16 2007/                         
DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION. WHEN LOOKING             
AT THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS...THE AREA IS BETWEEN WEATHER                   
SYSTEMS..WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE W AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE E. WHEN            
COMPARING MODELS...THE GFS WAS PREFERRED DUE TO ITS BETTER TRACK                
RECORD OF LATE...BUT A COMPROMISE WITH THE NAM WAS UTILIZED FOR                 
LATER IN THE FORECAST IN ORDER TO PROVIDE BETTER CONTINUITY. A LOW              
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE N PLAINS TONIGHT.             
AHEAD OF THE LOW...GOOD 850MB WAA AND A S WIND FLOW WILL PROVIDE                
WARMER TEMPERATURE AND A RETURN OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA TODAY.                  
THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE                 
MOVES THROUGH. WITH SHOWALTERS FALLING TO -6 IN CONJUNCTION WITH                
GOOD 700MB LIFT AND 850MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...COULD SEE ELEVATED             
CONVECTION DEVELOP ON NOSE OF THETA-E GRADIENT IN E ND IN                       
CONJUNCTION WITH 30KT LOW LEVEL JET.  THEREFORE...ADDED ISOLATED                
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST FOR PART OF E ND AFTER MIDNIGHT.                  
AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH ND AND SD ON MON...WILL SEE ADDITIONAL                 
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA...WITH THE FOCUS APPEARING TO            
BE MAINLY SE ND AND WC MN AT THIS TIME. AS A RESULT...INCREASED POPS            
TO LIKELY FOR MAINLY WC MN INTO MON NIGHT AND TUE. SOME WRAP-AROUND             
PRECIP REMAINS POSSIBLE INTO TUE NIGHT...WITH A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN             
SYSTEMS ON WED.                                                                 
WHEN LOOKING INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE                  
SYSTEM MOVES OUT INTO THE N PLAINS FOR THU AND FRI. WITH GOOD                   
CONTINUITY REMAINING IN EXTENDED FORECAST...MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED.             
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TG                                                                              
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
1003 AM CDT SUN SEP 15 2007                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
STRATUS HAS EXPANDED TO COVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA...BUT IS               
BEGINNING TO SHOW HINTS OF DETERIORATION AROUND THE                             
EDGES...ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE. EXPECT THIS TREND TO                  
CONTINUE AS GOOD WARMING OCCURS WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE NOT...WHICH                
WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE STRATUS. LOOKS LIKE THE I29 CORRIDOR/BIG                 
SIOUX RIVER VALLEY WILL BE ABOUT THE LAST TO GO...SO WILL MAINTAIN              
CLOUDS LONGEST IN THESE LOCATIONS. NAM/GFS HAVE NO CLUE TO THE                  
EXISTENCE OF THIS STRATUS...SO HAVE HAD TO RELY ON INFORMATION FROM             
THE RUC.                                                                        
OTHERWISE...SLOWED DOWN WARMING UNDER THE STRATUS...BUT WITH THE                
EXPECTED DETERIORATION OF STRATUS...FORECAST HIGHS SHOULD BE PRETTY             
CLOSE WITH MIXING TO ONLY ABOUT 900MB UNDER INFLUENCE OF STRONG                 
INVERSION.                                                                      
FOR TONIGHT...JET STREAK PER WATER VAPOR WORKING INTO NV/UT WILL                
SPREAD NORTHEAST TOWARDS WESTERN SD. THIS SHOULD AID IN                         
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS                
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...WHICH SHOULD THEN WORK INTO CENTRAL AND            
WESTERN SD LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. A VERY NICE RIGHT REAR              
QUAD PER GFS AND NAM WILL LIKELY INTERACT WITH THE 700-600MB FRONT              
AS ANYTHING BELOW THIS PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND 12Z LBF SOUNDING ARE            
MUCH TOO DRY. SO...MAY DECREASE POPS IN THE EAST FOR LATE TONIGHT               
AND INCREASE A BIT SOUTHWEST OF A 9V9 TO TYNDALL LINE. JET                      
STREAK/MID LEVEL FRONT INTERACTION REALLY GETS GOING ON MONDAY                  
MORNING AND WOULD EXPECT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF                
INTERSTATE 29 WITH A STRONG POSITIVE/NEGATIVE FRONTOGENESIS COUPLET.            
08                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
IFR AND LIFR CIGS AT FSD SHOULD LIFT BY ABOUT 17Z. VFR CONDITIONS               
AFTER THIS FOR ALL SITES.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
TRICKY FORECAST FORTHCOMING WITH MORE ACTIVE PATTERN SETTING UP.                
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST A BATCH OF STRATUS OVER NORTH CENTRAL              
NEBRASKA SLIDING OFF TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST AT 15 KNOTS.  CURRENT               
PROJECTIONS SHOW IT REACHING THE I-90 CORRIDOR RIGHT AROUND 12Z.                
FEEL IT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING                   
HOURS....BUT WITH ELEVATED INVERSION IT MAY TAKE ITS TIME DOING SO.             
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE SOMEWHAT TRICKY TODAY...BUT HAVE KEPT                    
TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST SLIGHTLY COOLER BASED ON AFOREMENTIONED                
CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER 925 HPA TEMPS.                                  
GRADIENT INCREASES TONIGHT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING TROUGH MOVING OUT              
OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. LEADING SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF WYOMING               
INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BY MONDAY MORNING.  AHEAD OF                          
SHORTWAVE...FAIRLY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 30 KNOT            
LOW LEVEL JET. HAVE EXPANDED PRECIP CHANCES TO INCLUDE ENTIRE CWA               
AFTER MIDNIGHT BASED ON FORCING...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES CLOSER              
TO THE MID LEVEL WAVE.  WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND                     
WINDS...HAVE KEPT LOWS ON THE WARMER END OF GUIDANCE.                           
WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE CWA ON MONDAY.  NORTH              
OF THE FRONT...EXPECT STRATUS TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN...WHILE                 
SOUTH OF THE FRONT...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES MAY DEVELOP RESULTING IN               
RAPID DESTABILIZATION. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND GOOD                    
DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE WARM               
SECTOR WOULD LIKELY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS                
BEING THE MAIN THREAT. RIGHT NOW...CAPPING INVERSION LOOKS TO BE                
FAIRLY STRONG AND HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY WARM SECTOR PRECIP POTENTIAL             
TILL AFTER 00Z TUESDAY. FURTHER OFF TO THE NORTH... A SERIES OF                 
SHORTWAVES LOOKS TO MOVE WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT                  
RESULTING IN WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT PORTIONS             
OF THE DAY.                                                                     
LOOKS LIKE THE POTENTIAL FOR A DECENT RAIN EVENT ON MONDAY NIGHT                
INTO TUESDAY AS SHORT WAVE TRAIN MOVES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST              
ACROSS THE AREA.  HAVE ALIGNED THE HIGHEST POPS AND QPF WITHIN THE              
VICINITY OF THE FRONT...WHICH IS A NORTH AND WEST SHIFT FROM HPC                
GUIDANCE. MODELS STILL SUGGESTING FAIRLY STRONG WAVE WORKING THROUGH            
THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO              
HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.                                                           
WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE A FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL DAY AT THIS POINT...AS              
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS THANKS TO THE HELP OF A 150+ KNOT JET             
DIGGING ALONG THE BACKSIDE. MODELS SUGGEST THIS MAY DEVELOP INTO A              
CUT OFF LOW LATE IN THE WEEK.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BT/RSR                                                                          
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
1049 AM CDT SUN SEP 16 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...12Z RUC/NAM/GFS SHOW A MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER               
THE COASTAL BEND DRIFTING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON THE SOUTHERN                 
PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER NORTH TEXAS. A LOOP                 
OF GOES SOUNDER PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS HIGHER MOISTURE ADVECTING              
NORTHWEST INTO THE COASTAL BEND AS THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLOWLY                
MOVES WEST. WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF BETTER CHANCE POPS               
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AND RAISE POPS                  
SLIGHTLY TO 20 PERCENT OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS REGION. MADE                
SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE WIND FORECAST...OTHERWISE NO MAJOR              
CHANGES WERE MADE.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM CDT SUN SEP 16 2007/                         
SHORT-TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED              
NEAR N CEN TX WILL DRIFT EAST TOWARD THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY                  
THROUGH MONDAY. AS IT DOES A WEAK S/WV WILL MOVE ACROSS S                       
TX...PERHAPS PROVIDING MODEST LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. SFC HIGH                    
PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NE WILL PROVIDE ERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. SOME                 
DRIER AIR WILL SNEAK INTO IN NERN COS NEAR VCT...BUT MOISTURE POOL              
ASSOC W/ OLD WASHED OUT FRONT OVER THE GULF WILL REMAIN ACROSS SRN              
AREAS WHERE PWS WILL RANGE FROM 1.8 TO NEAR 2 INCHES. THIS WILL                 
ALL LEAD TO ISOLD TO SCT SHRAS AND POSSIBLY A FEW TSTMS W/ HIGHEST              
POPS SW OF FREER TO CRP LINE TODAY. APPEARS DRIER AIR WILL FILTER               
INTO THE REGION A BIT MORE FOR MON...BUT MOISTURE POOL REMAINS                  
ACROSS SWRN 3RD OF THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE SIMILAR POP                        
CONFIGURATION FOR MON (LOWEST NE-HIGHEST SW)...BUT POPS WILL BE                 
ABOUT 10 PERCENT LOWER THAN TODAY WITH LOW END CHC POPS CONFINED                
TO FAR SRN/SWRN SECTIONS (NQI-LRD). MAV TEMPS GENERALLY SEEM BEST               
THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                                             
AVIATION...SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME LIGHT                
FOG ACROSS THE REGION EACH MORNING AND NEAR ISOLD TO SCT SHRA/TSRAS             
MAINLY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH AFTN TODAY. OTHERWISE CIGS THAT                 
DEVELOP W/ CU/HEATING SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR MOST PART TODAY.                    
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...GFS/ECMWF/NAM ARE                   
CONSISTENT LIFTING A TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUE WHICH WILL             
WEAKEN AND ELONGATE THE RIDGE FROM SW-NE OVER TEXAS. SUBSIDENCE                 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP OUR FORECAST DRY AND                       
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ANOTHER               
DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS ON THE WEST COAST WED-FRI WHICH ANCHORS THE                
RIDGE OVER TEXAS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.                                   
THE FORECAST GETS INTERESTING TOWARD THE WEEKEND AS THE ECMWF AND               
GFS BOTH SHOW A TROPICAL SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND             
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. BOTH MODELS BRING THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE                
TEXAS COAST ON SUNDAY. THE ECMWF PROGS VERY WEAK SHEAR ALOFT OVER               
THIS SYSTEM AND THE GFS INDICATES STRONG SHEAR. STILL TOO UNCERTAIN             
TO HAVE ANY CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT BUT WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH              
IN THE COMING DAYS FOR NEXT WEEKEND. WILL INTRODUCE 20% POPS FOR SAT            
TO AT LEAST ACCOUNT FOR AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH                 
TROPICAL WAVE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
CORPUS CHRISTI    91  73  91  74  91  /  30  20  20  10  10                     
VICTORIA          91  69  91  71  91  /  20  10  10  10  10                     
LAREDO            95  75  96  76  96  /  30  30  30  10  10                     
ALICE             92  72  93  72  92  /  40  20  20  10  10                     
ROCKPORT          90  77  90  77  91  /  20  20  10  10  10                     
COTULLA           93  72  94  72  94  /  20  20  20  10  10                     
KINGSVILLE        91  73  91  73  92  /  40  30  30  10  10                     
NAVY CORPUS       91  77  89  77  88  /  30  20  20  10  10                     
&&                                                                              
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TMT/89...SHORT TERM                                                             
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS                                   
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL                                            
357 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
OBSERVATIONS/TRENDS -- THE MEAN LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC WIND HAS SLIGHTLY            
VEERED AND FRESHENED DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS...NOW AVERAGING ABOUT             
075/10KT...ACCORDING TO RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM THE NOAA                       
ENVIRONMENTAL TECHNOLOGY LABORATORY PROFILER ON CUDJOE KEY. A BRIEF             
LOWER KEYS CUMULUS LINE EPISODE A FEW HOURS AGO WAS AIDED BY A                  
NORTHWARD-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT MERGED WITH AN INCIPIENT                 
ISLAND HEATING ZONE. THE CU LINE PRODUCED A BRIEF WATERSPOUT OVER THE           
FLATS BETWEEN KEY HAVEN AND CHANNEL KEY...A FEW MILES NE OF KEY WEST.           
LATEST DOPPLER RADAR SCANS SHOW VERY FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SERVICE             
AREA. SATELLITE AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LARGE POCKET OF DRY AIR            
IN THE 850-700MB LAYER MOVING WEST ACROSS THE REGION...AND THIS MAY             
BE CUTTING DOWN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.                                            
AN UPPER-LEVEL COMPOSITE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON REVEALS A LARGE DEEP           
LAYER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER TEXAS WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH              
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WHILE A MEAN TROUGH WAS ANALYZED OVER MUCH OF             
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MEANWHILE...A TUTT CONFIGURATION IS APPARENT IN           
THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES AND CARIBBEAN SEA...            
WITH A BROAD AND WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE             
ACROSS THIS REGION. SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE TROUGH LINES ARE EVIDENT              
WITHIN THE BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW.                               
FORECASTS -- TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT -- THE MIDLATITUDE UPPER              
FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY NORTH OF THE KEYS WITH A STRONG             
MID-LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF THE WESTERLIES TO              
NEAR CENTRAL FLORIDA. GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY                    
PERSISTENT INDICATING THIS SCENARIO OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. AS              
THIS PATTERN UNFOLDS...THE BROAD CYCLONIC LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW               
REGIME IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BASIN WILL EXPAND                    
NORTHWARD AND SHARPEN DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE MIDLATITUDE                   
VORTICITY CENTER. AS A RESULT...INCREASING LEVELS OF AMBIENT                    
VORTICITY AND SOME WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD BEGIN TO DEEPEN               
THE MOIST LAYER LOCALLY...WITH NE OR ENE FLOW PREVAILING IN THE                 
1000-700MB LAYER AND LOCAL CIRCULATIONS MODULATING CONVECTIVE                   
PATTERNS. WE ARE KEEPING 12-HOUR POPS AROUND 40 PERCENT FOR TONIGHT-            
MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY AND MOS.                              
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY -- THE MID-LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER INITIALLY              
OVER FLORIDA IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND INTO A SLOW...WESTWARD-MOVING                
CYCLONIC GYRE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. WIND FIELDS LOCALLY DO NOT               
APPEAR TO BE TOO STRONG...BUT MY THINKING IS THAT OUR PROXIMITY TO              
THIS CYCLONIC GYRE AND POSITION WITHIN LOW-LEVEL MOIST CONFLUENT FLOW           
SHOULD IF NOTHING ELSE DEEPEN THE MOIST LAYER FURTHER...THEREBY                 
ENHANCING DAILY CONVECTIVE CYCLES. INTERESTINGLY...BY MIDWEEK THE               
GLOBAL MODELS BUILD A STRONG AND DEEP SHORT WAVE RIDGE FROM NE TO SW            
ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE CYCLONIC GYRE...PRODUCING AN UNUSUAL                
CONFIGURATION OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE           
KEYS. THIS SETUP APPEARS VERY SUSPECT RIGHT NOW...AND WE WILL AT THIS           
POINT MAINTAIN THE MODESTLY-ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY 12-HOUR RAIN CHANCES OF           
50 AND 40 PERCENT FOR TUESDAY-THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...             
RESPECTIVELY.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
GENTLE TO MODERATE ENE BREEZES WILL PERSIST TONIGHT THROUGH                     
TUESDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS IN AND NEAR SHOWERS AND                     
THUNDERSTORMS. NO ADVISORIES OR HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.                      
HOWEVER...BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS AND MARINE              
WEATHER STATEMENTS FOR THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING ALONG THE FLIGHT ROUTE FROM            
MIAMI TO KEY WEST...AND AT OUR ISLAND TERMINALS.                                
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE MAINLAND LEG OF THE ROUTE WILL HAVE            
A SLOW DRIFT TOWARD THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST...WHICH MEANS COVERAGE                
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED WITHIN THE ROUTE CORRIDOR            
OVER THE EVERGLADES.                                                            
A CLOUD LINE IN THE LOWER KEYS IS INTERMITTENTLY ACTIVE. SHOWERS                
WITHIN THIS FEATURE WOULD AFFECT THE KEY WEST TERMINAL. WE WILL                 
AMEND PROMPTLY IF THUNDER OCCURS OR IS IMMINENT. WE WILL ISSUE A                
GROUND-HOLD AT KEY WEST IF LIGHTNING IS WITHIN 5 MILES OF THE RUNWAY.           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
KEY WEST  80  91  80  90 / 40 40 40 50                                          
MARATHON  80  91  80  91 / 40 40 40 50                                          
&&                                                                              
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER                                                    
AVIATION/SHORT TERM...DFM                                                       
DATA COLLECTION.......COTTRILL                                                  
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST                                  
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                              
430 PM CDT SUN SEP 16 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
20Z SFC OBS SHOWED THE WARM FRONT STILL LOCATED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE             
FORECAST AREA. CONTINUOUS LIFT OVER THE FRONT HAS CAUSED ISOLATED               
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. ALOFT               
WATER VAPOR SHOWED A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS             
THE PLAINS AS A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC              
NORTHWEST.                                                                      
FOR TONIGHT...MAIN QUESTION IS WHEN WILL THE WARM FRONT FINALLY LIFT            
NORTH. LATEST RUC DATA STILL SHOWS IT LIFTING INTO NEB BY 06Z                   
MEANWHILE THERE IS CONCERN FOR PRECIP CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING AS            
LONG AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTH OF THE FRONT. WITH THIS              
IN MIND CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE            
NAM AND RUC ISENTROPIC SFC SHOW CONTINUED LIFT WITH SOME DECENT                 
MOISTURE. THIS SEEMS TO FIT IN WITH RADAR TRENDS AS WELL. BELIEVE               
ONCE THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE NIL                 
THROUGH MONDAY WITH LITTLE OR NO FORCING SEEN FROM MODELS. LOWS                 
TONIGHT COULD BE TRICKY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING DURING THE EVENING             
ACROSS THE NORTH AS WAA FINALLY MOVES IN. ADDITIONALLY THE PRESSURE             
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER            
WELL MIXED. IN GENERAL STAYED RELATIVELY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST             
AND GUIDANCE. MAIN PROBLEM FOR MONDAY WILL BE WHETHER WIND ADVISORY             
CRITERIA WILL BE MET. AS UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST MOVES                
EAST...LEE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDY                  
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THE NEXT SHIFTS WILL WANT TO SEE IF               
THE GRADIENT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SUSTAINED 30 MPH WINDS OR                
NOT. FOR NOW KEPT THE WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE. -WOLTERS                 
FOR MONDAY NIGHT...FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST ALOFT WITH SEVERAL PIECES               
OF ENERGY HINTED BY MODELS COMING THROUGH FLOW.  AHEAD OF THESE                 
FEATURES STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WAA                  
DEVELOP OVER AREA BY LATE NIGHT.  HAVE KEPT SOME LOW CHANCES POPS IN            
THE NORTHCENTRAL BEFORE MIDNIGHT FOR THIS REASON AND                            
UPPED INTO THE CHANCE RANGE ALONG AND WEST OF AN ABILENE TO HIAWATHA            
LINE AFTER AFTER 06Z. GFS HINTING OF WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH              
AFTER MIDNIGHT WHILE NAM KEEPING ENERGY FURTHER WEST OTHERWISE WOULD            
HAVE SPREAD PRECIPITATION FURTHER EAST.  H850 MB WINDS 50 TO 55 KTS             
ON NAM AND GFS 40 TO 45 KTS OVERNIGHT SO SHOULD STILL BE SOMEWHAT               
BREEZY THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.  KEPT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S MOST              
AREAS.                                                                          
ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...BOTH GFS AND NAM BRING MAIN                     
SHORTWAVE THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  HAVE                 
UPPED POPS INTO THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE AT THIS POINT FOR AREAS              
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I70 TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND GENERALLY                
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF CWA TUESDAY NIGHT.  NAM SHOWING SURFACE               
BASED INSTABILITY IN THE 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON              
HOURS WHEN MAIN LIFT SHOULD BE PUSHING INTO AREA.  HAVE ADDED SOME              
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WORDING TO HWO PRODUCT FOR TUESDAY                
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  HAVE HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID 80S NORTH TO              
UPPER 80S SOUTH GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.                   
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY SHOULD SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES              
GREATLY DIMINISH AS WAVE AND MAIN LIFT PUSH EAST.  HAVE KEPT SOME               
SMALL CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AS FRONT MEANDERS AROUND CWA ALONG              
WITH SOME WEAK OVERRUNNING/ISENTROPIC LIFT.  HAVE HIGHS WEDNESDAY               
MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S.  WITH FRONT RETREATING NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY            
NIGHT...KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF I70.                    
STILL QUITE A VARIANCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE             
WEEKEND. THE GFS SEEMINGLY THE OUTLIER WITH DEVELOPMENT OF CLOSED               
LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND ITS SLOW PROGRESSION EASTWARD.  IT             
ALSO DEEPENS THE NORTHERN STREAM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY DAY                 
BRINGING A NORTHERN STREAM BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY                   
MORNING.  AT THIS POINT GOING ALONG WITH HPC AND FAVORING THE 00Z               
ECMWF AND ENSEMBLE GFS SOLUTIONS.  THUS TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND WINDS            
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. ALL MODELS STILL                   
SHOWING SOME INCREASING LOW LEVEL RH RETURNS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY            
AND H850 MB TEMPS NOT AS WARM AS YESTERDAY`S RUNS FOR THURSDAY.                 
THUS HAVE KEPT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.  GFS H850 MB WINDS                
DIMINISHED TO 25 TO 30KT WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPING H850 MB WINDS JUST             
A BIT HIGHER. WITH OVERNIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE SOME                     
MIXING...HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 60S MOST            
AREAS.                                                                          
FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...ECMWF KEEPING SOME RIDGING ALOFT OVER                
AREA WITH MINOR WAVE TO THE NORTH.  IT OPENS CALIFORNIA LOW AND                 
GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTHEAST WHILE GFS KEEPS LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA                
COAST AND AS MENTIONED ABOVE DEEPENS NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. THE GFS              
WOULD PUSH A SURFACE REFLECTION INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY               
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM/RAIN POTENTIAL.  OPTING              
AT THIS POINT THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION.  HAVE HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE               
UPPER 80S MOST AREAS IN CASE SOME CLOUDS SPREAD SOUTH FROM NORTHERN             
STREAM.  LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AGAIN MIDDLE 60S.  HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE             
MID TO UPPER 80S AS CLOUDS INCREASE WITH APPROACHING WESTERN SYSTEM.            
FOR SUNDAY...ENHANCED RESOLUTION ECMWF HAS UPPER LOW LIFTING INTO               
NORTHERN PLAINS BY 00Z MONDAY WITH TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH AND                   
HINTING OF SOME PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT.  GFS HAS SYSTEM OVER                 
CALIFORNIA...DRY OVER THE PLAINS.  WITH DIFFERING SOLUTIONS...HAVE              
KEPT NEXT SUNDAY DRY AT THIS POINT.  HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S.            
PF                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
EXPECT MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO PERSIST UNTIL THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH             
BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS                  
AROUND WHILE THE FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE TAFS. OTHERWISE EXPECT              
CLEARING SKIES ONCE THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN UP                 
OVERNIGHT AROUND 10-12KTS. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE WITH GUSTS                     
APPROACHING 30KTS FROM THE SSW DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY.                 
&&                                                                              
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
200 PM MDT SUN SEP 16 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT - WEDNESDAY)                                            
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE SLIM PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT NORTH              
OF A RETREATING WARM FRONT...THEN BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS               
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.                                       
WARM FRONT CURRENTLY HUNG UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH                     
RESOLUTION NAM AND RUC MODELS FORECAST IT TO LIFT NORTH AND BE JUST             
ABOUT OUT OF THE CWA BY 12Z MONDAY. BASED ON THAT POSITION NOT                  
EXPECTING FOG TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT...THOUGH WILL BE A CLOSE CALL FOR            
NEBRASKA COUNTIES. 315K ISENTROPIC CHARTS SHOW LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS            
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT WITH 50KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW              
LEVEL JET AHEAD OF IT POINTING INTO NEBRASKA. INTENSE ISENTROPIC                
LIFT FORECAST ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. AGAIN TOO                 
CLOSE TO CALL SO WILL HAVE SOME POPS IN THE NORTHERN ZONES.                     
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE                   
SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. Q-VECTORS/QG FORCING              
VERY FAVORABLE FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WITH THIS SYSTEM. BEST                
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES...BUT THINK ALL             
LOCATIONS STAND A GOOD CHANCE OF RECEIVING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION             
AND RAISED POPS ACCORDINGLY. 310K ISENTROPIC CHARTS SHOW THE 700MB              
TROUGH AXIS STILL ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY MORNING...WITH UPGLIDE                 
AHEAD OF IT. WILL CARRY SOME CHANCE POPS INTO TUESDAY                           
MORNING...TAPERING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST.               
BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE                
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE                
AREA. SOME DECENT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY FORECAST BUT CANNOT FIND            
LIFTING MECHANISM EITHER ALOFT OR AT THE SURFACE. IF ANYTHING 500MB             
HEIGHTS ARE RISING WITH SUBTLE ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE TO THE FLOW.              
WILL KEEP IT DRY.                                                               
.LONG TERM... (THURSDAY - SUNDAY)                                               
UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND BECOME CUT OFF             
FROM THE MAIN FLOW. IT WILL EJECT NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD LATE IN THE               
PERIOD. LOCAL AREA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF FASTEST                     
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS PERIOD. MREF CONSENSUS FORECAST AND                   
NORMALIZED ANOMALIES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.             
AS FOR THE LATE PERIOD TROUGH EJECTING...THINK IT WILL BE SLOWER                
THAN CURRENTLY PROGGED. IN ADDITION...IT MAY TRACK NORTH/WEST OF THE            
AREA AND RESULT IN DRY SLOTTING. WILL TAKE A PERSISTENCE PHILOSOPHY             
AND KEEP IT WARM AND DRY.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...INITIALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL            
HIGH PLAINS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED                      
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WARM FRONT WHICH WAS                   
LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM JUST NORTH OF KHYS TO NORTH OF KTQK. THIS             
WARM FRONT INTERSECTED THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS WICHITA COUNTY SSE OF             
LEOTI IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT MANAGE TO                  
DEVELOP SHOULD BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND DECREASE AROUND 03-04Z AS THE            
WARM FRONT TRANSLATES SLOWLY NNE. SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF                 
NIGHTS...CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING NOCTURNAL LLJ AND             
MODEST MID LVL WAA MAY ALLOW WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO                  
DEVELOP AFTER 04-05Z...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM BENKELMAN TO             
HOXIE WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN LOW CIGS.                       
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JDK/JDK/MWM                                                                     
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
428 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MON)...                                                
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE            
WRN PLAINS TO ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN. DOWNSTREAM TROF OVER ERN CANADA             
INTO THE NE CONUS IS BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS                 
INDICATE THIS PROCESS WILL CONTINUE AS THE TROF IS REPLACED WITH A              
RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS THIS WEEK. SO...THIS WILL OVERALL BE A MUCH            
WARMER WEEK THAN LAST WEEK. WITH THESE CHANGES IN THE LARGE SCALE               
PATTERN...WAA REGIME IN DEVELOPING DEEP LAYER SW FLOW AND SHORTWAVE             
ENERGY LIFTING NE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WILL OFFER PCPN CHANCES. IT            
APPEARS THAT THE FIRST OF THESE SHORTWAVES TO APPROACH THE AREA WILL            
BE THE ONE CURRENTLY OVER SRN NV. CLOSER TO HOME...VIS SATELLITE                
IMAGERY SHOWS MIXED STRATOCU/AC CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS WRN AND                 
CNTRL UPPER MI. FATE OF THESE CLOUDS WILL BE A FCST ISSUE TONIGHT.              
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO PCPN CHANCES MON AFTN.                                  
AS VIEWED ON 300 AND 305K SFCS...ONGOING MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT                
WHICH SUPPORTING CLOUDS OVER FCST AREA RIGHT NOW WILL SHIFT E OF THE            
AREA TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL CONTINUE...BUT CONDENSATION                
PRES DEFICITS INCREASE. SO PLAN IS TO TREND TOWARD LESS CLOUD COVER             
FROM W TO E DURING THE LATE AFTN AND EVENING HRS. EXPECT BULK OF THE            
OVERNIGHT HRS TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY...BUT WILL NEED TO               
WATCH FOR ADDITIONAL STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE NIGHT AS                  
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS NWD THRU THE PLAINS TOWARD THE WRN LAKES.            
AS FOR TEMPS...SRLY WINDS WILL KEEP W AND NCNTRL DOWNSLOPING AREAS              
WARMEST...PROBABLY WITH MINS NO LWR THAN THE LOW/MID 50S. EXPECT                
SIMILAR READINGS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WITH BRISK S TO SW WINDS OVER               
THE WATER. EXPECT 40S IN THE INTERIOR.                                          
SHORTWAVE STREAKS NE TOWARD UPPER MI MON AFTN BRINGING WITH IT AN               
IMPRESSIVE SURGE OF 850MB THETA-E ADVECTION. PRECIPITABLE WATER ALSO            
INCREASES DRAMATICALLY FROM AROUND 0.5 INCHES TONIGHT TO 1.5 TO 1.75            
INCHES MON AFTN. WEAK SHORTWAVE AND MOISTURE SURGE SHOULD BE                    
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY MON AFTN OVER THE W HALF OF              
THE FCST AREA. OTHERWISE...WARMING WILL CONTINUE WITH 850MB TEMPS               
REACHING 14-16C IN THE AFTN. HOWEVER...INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL              
KEEP HIGH TEMPS FROM REACHING THEIR POTENTIAL. EXPECT LOW-MID 70S TO            
BE THE RULE...BUT IF CLOUDS ARE SLOWER TO ARRIVE...TEMPS WILL BE                
SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER. COOLEST READINGS WILL BE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN             
WHERE A STIFF S WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S.                                
.LONG TERM (MON NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUN)...                                      
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PCPN CHANCES FOR MON NIGHT THROUGH WED               
MORNING...THEN TEMPERATURES FRI THROUGH SUN.                                    
MON NIGHT AND TUE...AT 00Z TUE...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SHOULD BE                
LOCATED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH RIDGING FROM LOUISIANA INTO            
LOWER MICHIGAN...WHILE AT THE SURFACE A 1001 MB LOW IS EXPECTED NEAR            
ABERDEEN SOUTH DAKOTA. SW FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH AND                 
WHICH EXTENDS INTO UPPER MICHIGAN FAVORS SHRTWVS TO RIDE ACROSS THE             
AREA...AND IN FACT...THE GFS/NAM DO SHOW ONE MOVING THROUGH MON                 
NIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF/UKMET SHOWS THE SAME SHRTWV BUT JUST LOCATED A             
BIT FARTHER WEST SINCE IT HAS A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE INTO LOWER            
MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH THE UKMET IS FURTHER WEST WITH THE SHRTWV...ALL              
MODELS INDICATE A WARM ADVECTION SCENARIO MON NIGHT AS THE BASE OF              
THE INTERMOUNTAIN TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.               
GIVEN THE WARM ADVECTION...ALL MODELS GENERATE QPF ACROSS THE WEST              
HALF OF THE AREA...THUS HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE POPS TOWARDS LIKELY               
(SIMILAR TO GUIDANCE). OVER THE EAST HALF...WITH THE UKMET BUILDING             
MORE RIDGING HERE...THERE IS LESS PROBABILITY FOR PCPN AND HAVE                 
DECIDED ONLY TO RAISE POPS TO 50 IN RESPECT FOR THE GFS/NAM. PRECIP             
SHOULD TAPER OFF AFTER 06Z OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AS CAPPING UNDER              
THE LOW LEVEL JET MOVES IN. A WARM NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH BREEZY S              
TO SE WINDS. ON TUE...THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LIFT              
INTO WESTERN MN. A FEW SHRTWVS ARE INDICATED AHEAD OF IT TO CROSS               
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE                     
DAY...ENOUGH TO KEEP CHANCE OR LIKELY POPS GOING THERE. GIVEN STRONG            
SHEAR PRESENT AND ELEVATED CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG...MAY              
HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN                   
HAZARD. DAY 3 OUTLOOK HAS AREA IN 5 PCT. THE REST OF THE U.P. WILL              
BE SOLIDLY IN THE CAPPED WARM SECTOR WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 16-18C.                
GIVEN BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACH LOW AND COLD                 
FRONT...AND THOSE WARM 850MB READINGS...AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND                
HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD AT LEAST ALLOW                 
READINGS IN THE EAST HALF OF THE U.P. AWAY FROM LAKE MI CLIMB INTO              
THE LOW 80S. IF MORE SUN OCCURS...MID 80S ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.               
RECORD HIGH FOR THE OFFICE IS 86. COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE                  
WESTERN U.P. WHERE THERE APPEARS TO BE MORE CLOUDS. REGARDING                   
HUMIDITY...MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT AT LEAST LOW 60S DEWPOINTS                
SHOULD COME UP HERE.                                                            
TUE NIGHT AND WED...SHRTWV TROUGH AND THE SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN              
MN WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIFTED NORTHEAST ATOP THE STRONG RIDGE OVER              
LOWER MICHIGAN...IN RESPONSE TO A NEW BUT MUCH DEEPER TROUGH DIVING             
SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NW. GIVEN THAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY               
CONSISTENT ON THE TRACK OF THIS SHRTWV...AND ALL THE MOISTURE                   
PRESENT...THERE IS ENOUGH CERTAINTY TO RAISE POPS TO LIKELY OVER THE            
WESTERN U.P.. ON THE MOISTURE NOTE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES                  
ARE PROGGED BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES...WHICH IS 300 PERCENT ABOVE               
NORMAL! THUS ANY STORMS THAT MOVE THROUGH COULD PRODUCE HEAVY                   
RAINFALL...AS INDICATE BY THE NAM SHOWING SOME VERY HIGH QPF AMOUNTS            
WHERE IT THINKS STORMS HAVE TRACKED (3.2 INCHES FOR CMX BETWEEN                 
21-03Z). FOR THE EASTERN U.P....DELAYED POPS UNTIL AFTER 06Z...AND              
THIS MIGHT EVEN HAVE TO BE PUSHED BACK FURTHER SINCE THE SHRTWV                 
TRACK IS SW TO NE...MAINTAINING RIDGING THERE. ON WED...HAVE KEPT IN            
SOME CHANCE POPS IN THE MORNING OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...EXCLUDING                
IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER. THIS IS DUE TO THE FACT THAT            
THE NAM/CANADIAN/ECMWF WHICH WERE PREFERRED BY HPC TEND TO HOLD BACK            
THE SURFACE LOW AND SHRTWV NEAR THE AREA AT 12Z. PCPN STILL LOOKS               
GOOD ENDING BY 18Z AS THE LOW AND SHRTWV LIFT INTO NE ONTARIO. TUE              
NIGHT SHOULD ALSO BE ANOTHER MILD AND HUMID NIGHT WITH THE RAIN                 
COMING ACROSS. CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOW TO LEAVE WED...PREVENTING                
HIGHS FROM REACHING THEIR MAXIMUM POTENTIAL GIVEN 850MB TEMPS AT                
LEAST BETWEEN 10-12C. GOING HIGHS LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW.                           
WED NIGHT THROUGH SUN...AT 00Z THU...MODELS ARE ALL IN GOOD                     
AGREEMENT SHOWING A SPLIT TROUGH FROM NORTHERN ALBERTA INTO NORTHERN            
CALIFORNIA (AN UPPER LOW IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA)...WITH RIDGING UP              
INTO THE NE PACIFIC AND FROM TEXAS TO MAINE. THE 00Z/06Z GFS IS LESS            
PRONOUNCED WITH THE RIDGE IN THE NE PACIFIC COMPARED TO THE                     
CANADIAN/ECMWF/UKMET...AND THUS ALLOWS FOR A VIGOROUS TROUGH TO                 
CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRI INTO SAT. UKMET              
ALSO DEVELOPS A STRONG TROUGH OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO FRI                         
EVENING...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS THE GFS. PER HPC PMDEPD                          
DISCUSSION...HAVE DISCOUNTED BOTH OF THESE SCENARIOS AND FOLLOWED               
THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF/CANADIAN/LOCAL HEMISPHERIC ARW RUN WHICH              
FOLLOW THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. NEW 12Z ECMWF/GFS ARE VERY SIMILAR            
TO THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS.                                                         
WED NIGHT AND THU STILL LOOK DRY AT THIS POINT AS A BRIEF RIDGE OF              
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE CWA BEHIND THE TUE NIGHT AND WED SYSTEM.              
BY LATE THU...SOME STORMS SHOULD FIRE ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN MN IN AN               
AREA OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A             
110 KT JET OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. AS THE UPPER JET AND WARM                     
ADVECTION ZONE SHIFT EAST...SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY MAKE THEIR WAY             
INTO UPPER MI OR JUST STAY TO THE NORTH...ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN CHANCE             
POPS. BY FRI MORNING...THE SURFACE WARM FRONTAL WILL SHIFT NORTH OF             
UPPER MICHIGAN...PLACING THE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR. 00Z ECMWF                 
SHOWS 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO 16-18C AT 00Z SAT WITH 850MB DEWPOINTS            
BETWEEN 12-14C...SUGGESTING A DRY...WARM AND HUMID DAY. A SHRTWV                
TROUGH TOPPING THE NE PACIFIC RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS                  
NORTHERN ONTARIO FRI NIGHT...PUSHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK S ON             
SAT. LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE ON THIS BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR STORMS              
TO FIRE ALONG IT IN SAT AFTERNOON AS SUGGESTED BY THE LOCAL                     
HEMISPHERIC ARW RUN. THIS FRONT WILL NOT STAY LONG OVER THE                     
AREA...DUE TO WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE            
WESTERN U.S. LIFTING NE. WILL KEEP SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE WARM            
ADVECTION OVER THE BOUNDARY...BUT THIS IS VERY MARGINAL WITH THE                
BETTER FORCING BACK TOWARDS THE WEST. ON SUN...THE ECMWF SHOWS AN               
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WITH 500MB HEIGHTS WAY ABOVE NORMAL...AROUND 588               
DAM...OVER UPPER MI BY 12Z SUN...IN ADDITION WITH 850MB TEMPS NEAR              
18C. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THIS RIDGE SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY DAY                     
SUN...WITH TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY SIMILAR TO FRI.                            
IF THE SOLUTION PRESENTED BY THE ECMWF/CANADIAN/LOCAL HEMISPHERIC               
ARW RUN DOES PAN OUT...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT MANY DAYS OF NEAR OR              
ABOVE RECORD HIGHS. FRI...SAT...SUN AND PERHAPS EVEN MON TOO COULD              
BE IN JEOPARDY.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THIS FCST PERIOD. LAYERED VFR CLOUD             
DECKS WITH BASES BTWN 4KFT AND 7KFT WILL DRIFT ACROSS KCMX/KSAW                 
DURING THE AFTN PER VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY. BACK EDGE SHOULD REACH               
KCMX AROUND 21Z AND KSAW AROUND 00Z...PROVIDED LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION             
OF CURRENT MOVEMENT HOLDS. MARGINAL LLWS SHOULD REDEVELOP TONIGHT AS            
SW WINDS INCREASE ABOVE SFC BASED INVERSION. LLWS WILL THEN QUICKLY             
END AFTER SUNRISE MON. SHOULD BE A BREEZY DAY MON AT KSAW UNDER                 
FAVORED SRLY FLOW WITH 20-25KT AVBL TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC. SHRA AND            
POSSIBLE TSRA MAY AFFECT KCMX JUST BEYOND THIS TAF FCST PERIOD.                 
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
EXPECT 15 TO 25 KT SRLY WINDS TO BE THE RULE FOR THE MOST PART                  
TONIGHT THRU MON UNDER RATHER TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BTWN HIGH PRES                
WELL TO THE E AND LOW PRES OVER THE DAKOTAS. AS IS TYPICAL FOR SRLY             
FLOW...THE STRONGER WINDS WILL BE FOUND OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE                 
SUPERIOR. LOCALLY...THE STRONGEST WINDS MAY OCCUR IN THE VCNTY OF               
GRAND MARAIS AT THE E END OF PICTURED ROCKS NATIONAL LAKESHORE DUE              
TO TERRAIN AFFECTS. OVER THE W HALF OF THE LAKE...WINDS MAY BACK E              
OR EVEN NE TOWARD THE FAR WRN PORTION MON AS MARINE INVERSION                   
STRENGTHENS AND SFC PRES FALLS OCCUR JUST TO THE W. AS THE LOW OVER             
THE DAKOTAS LIFTS NE MON NIGHT/TUE...SRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE. WILL             
CONTINUE TO FCST 30KT WINDS OVER THE E HALF...BUT THERE IS THE                  
POTENTIAL FOR SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS LOW              
PRES WILL NOT BE WRAPPED UP AS IT PASSES TO THE N...SO NW WINDS                 
AFTER COLD FRONT PASSAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT (10-20KT). WINDS                
WILL SETTLE DOWN WED NIGHT/EARLY THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE                 
UPPER LAKES. NEW LOW PRES DEVELOPING TO THE W WILL BRING ANOTHER                
ROUND OF INCREASED SRLY WINDS THU NIGHT/FRI.                                    
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON                                                            
LONG TERM...AJ                                                                  
AVIATION/MARINE...ROLFSON                                                       
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1230 PM CDT SUN SEP 16 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW                                     
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 404 AM CDT SUN SEP 16 2007/                               
OVERCAST LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS COVERING THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF                
THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. BACK EDGE RUNS FROM KSTC TO KULM WITH               
AN EASTWARD MOVEMENT AROUND 17 KNOTS. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO BREAK                
UP SOME DURING THE MORNING AS THEY MOVE EAST WITH SKIES BECOMING                
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. STRATUS HAS POPPED UP OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA             
WITH A MOVEMENT TO THE NORTH. RUC 925MB PROGS SHOW THIS EXPANDING               
RAPIDLY NORTHEAST THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVER EAST                     
CENTRAL MN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ALLOW FOR SOME OF THE                     
STRATUS MAKING IT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN THIS MORNING. GFS 300K                  
THETA SURFACE SHOWS THAT THE STRATUS WILL BE ONE OF OUR PROBLEMS                
DEVELOPING TONIGHT WITH SATURATION SETTING IN. OVERALL...STILL                  
PREFER THE 16/00Z GFS OVER THE NAM. USED THE GFS 24 HOURS AGO AND               
CONTINUED WITH THAT TREND THIS MORNING. THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH THE               
16/00Z NAM IS THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER MN ON TUESDAY. THE                 
16/00Z ECMWF...WHICH 24 HOURS AGO WAS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE NAM              
AND GFS...IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS. DO THINK THERE WILL BE              
A WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT ON TUESDAY BUT JUST NOT                 
THE DEPTH SHOWN BY THE NAM. AFTER SOME SUNSHINE TODAY...MOISTURE                
AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND                  
SOUTHERN CWA TONIGHT. ADDED POPS TO THESE AREAS. THINGS BECOME                  
PRETTY UNSTABLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF A                   
SEVERE STORM OR TWO DEVELOPED BY MONDAY MORNING DUE TO THE INTENSE              
LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND 30 KNOT WINDS 1500 FEET ABOVE THE               
GROUND. MONDAY STILL LOOKS BAD FOR SOUTHERN MN IN THE AFTERNOON                 
AND EVENING FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES.                
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE CHANCE FOR TORNADOES IN THE HWO THIS               
MORNING. A WARM FRONT IS SHOWN TO MAKE IT TO NEAR THE MN RIVER BY               
MONDAY EVENING. SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE                 
EXPECTED. 6 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS OF 4 MILLIBARS ARE CENTERED NEAR                
MANKATO. 0-1KM SHEAR IS 30-35 KNOTS WITH 0-6KM SHEAR NEAR 50                    
KNOTS. 40 KNOT WINDS AT 850MB POKE ALL THE WAY INTO KMSP. THE NAM               
SHOWS A SIMILAR SCENARIO BUT EVEN WORSE. ELEVATED SEVERE STORMS                 
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THE                  
ACTION DOESN`T STOP. ALTHOUGH THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE                 
AREA MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE MN CWA               
ON TUESDAY. MORE CONVECTION IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY                      
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE EASTERN CWA AS THE AIRMASS                       
DESTABILIZES. STILL BELIEVE WE WILL HAVE A BREAK ON WEDNESDAY.                  
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SHOWN TO APPROACH FROM THE WSW                     
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE              
AREA WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS/LOWS FOR THE NEXT               
72 HOURS NEAR MAV VALUES.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
LAST OF SC DECK OVER WC WI WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH 20Z...AFFECTING               
ONLY KEAU EARLY.  IFR CIGS OVER SW MN DISSIPATING AS MIXING TAKES               
PLACE.  WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS INTO SOUTHERN              
MN LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 06Z AS STRONG WAA LIFTS OVER THE                
AREA.  BROUGHT MVFR CIGS INTO AREA MAINLY AFTER 08Z AND LIFTED                  
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.  MAY SEE IFR CIGS DEVELOP BY 12Z ACROSS MUCH OF            
THE WEST AND SOUTH. ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVING ACROSS SRN MN                   
OVERNIGHT AS WELL...AND HAVE ADDED PROB30 TSRA AT KAXN AFTER 08Z                
...AND PROB30 SHRA DEVELOPING REMAINDER OF TAF SITES 08Z-14Z PERIOD.            
SHOULD REMAIN WITH MVFR CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.                       
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RAH/DWE/JPR                                                                     
</pre> mn