AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                             
 238 PM MST MON JAN 8 2007                                                      
 .SHORT TERM...                                                                 
 (TONIGHT AND TUE)                                                              
 MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND                       
 TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SNOW PACK AREAS.                                     
 CURRENTLY...MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS             
 THE CENTRAL ROCKIES PER WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RUC MODEL            
 UPPER AIR ANALYSES. MIDLEVEL WIND SPEEDS APPEAR TO BE DIMINISHING              
 THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE AND DEPENDS ON               
 SNOW COVER...NO SNOW COVER...AND EXPOSED MOUNTAIN TOP AREAS. WARM              
 AIR APPEARS TO BE BUILDING ALOFT AS WOLF CREEK PASS...MONARCH                  
 PASS...AND LA VETA PASS HIGH TERRAIN AWOS SENSORS ARE IN THE 30S TO            
 NEAR 40F. CENTRAL MOUNTAINS HIGH TERRAIN AWOS SENSORS INDICATE WINDS           
 ARE STILL BLOWING OVER THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS...WEST 25-45KTS GUSTS UP             
 TO 50KTS AT TIMES. MEANWHILE...A COUPLE OF HEARTY SNOW PACKS                   
 CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN SAN LUIS VALLEY AND LOWER AR RIVER                 
 VALLEY INCLUDING LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES OVER THE           
 SNOW PACK STRUGGLED TO WARM AGAIN...EXCEPT SPRINGFIELD DID MANAGE TO           
 GET IN THE 30S AND TRINIDAD REACHED MID 40S THANKS TO A LITTLE BIT             
 OF WIND. LOW LYING AREAS WITH SNOW PACK ONLY WERE IN THE 20S TO NEAR           
 30F LIKE ALAMOSA...LA JUNTA...AND LAMAR WITH LITTLE WIND.                      
 TONIGHT...MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE           
 THIS EVENING. HARD PRESSED TO FIND ANY CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...SO                
 EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD OCCUR IN LOW LYING AREAS...               
 ESPECIALLY OVER THE SNOW PACK. SHOULD SEE THE SAN LUIS VALLEY FLOOR            
 CENTER DROP TO AROUND 12 BELOW ZERO OR LOWER TONIGHT. ALSO...THE               
 LOWER AR RIVER VALLEY TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP QUICKLY THIS EVENING            
 AND OVERNIGHT. NICE INVERSIONS SHOULD SET UP ALONG THE EDGE OF THE             
 SAN LUIS VALLEY TOWARDS THE MOUNTAINS AND WEST OF I-25 CORRIDOR                
 TOWARDS OUR EASTERN MOUNTAINS LOWER ELEVATIONS.                                
 TUE...MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW BACKS TOWARDS THE WEST AND              
 CHINOOK DOWNSLOPE WARMING OCCURS. H7 TEMPERATURES WARM FROM -1C IN             
 THE MORNING TO +3C BY THE AFTERNOON. MIDLEVEL WIND FLOW IS NOT                 
 PROJECTED TO BE ALL THAT MODERATE OR STRONG...SO LOW LYING AREAS               
 SHOULD HAVE RELATIVELY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER DEEP              
 SNOW PACK. CURRENT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY GOOD.             
 THE LOWER AR RIVER VALLEY WILL LIKELY REMAIN MUCH COLDER WITH LIGHT            
 WIND...SNOW PACK/COLD GROUND...AND LOW SUN ANGLE. IF THE WIND CAN              
 PICK UP IN LA JUNTA OR LAMAR...TEMPERATURE MIGHT MAKE A RUN FOR THE            
 30S AS WARMER AIR WILL BE JUST OFF THE DECK. DESPITE THE DEEP SNOW             
 PACK ACROSS LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES...TEMPERATURES WILL                   
 PROBABLY CLIMB INTO THE 30S AND 40S SINCE THEY WILL BE CLOSER TO THE           
 WARMER AIR ALOFT AND A LITTLE MORE WIND COULD MIX DOWN THE AIR. METZE          
 .LONG TERM...                                                                  
 (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)                                            
 METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS FOR THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE AMOUNT OF            
 IMPACT NEXT SYSTEM HAS ON CWFA FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS              
 WELL AS WINDS AND TEMPERATURES.                                                
 LATEST LONGER TERM MODELS INDICATING THAT CWFA UNDER GENERALLY                 
 DRY NORTHWEST TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY             
 MORNING. WILL CARRY LOW GRADE TO NON-EXISTENT POPS DURING THIS                 
 TIME-FRAME. STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY FROM                  
 WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.                                                 
 BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...12Z/8TH ECMWF MODEL SUGGESTS THAT CLOSED               
 UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER FAR NORTHERN UTAH BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH               
 UPPER LOW THEN MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING BY SATURDAY MORNING              
 AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY SUNDAY MORNING. 18Z/8TH NAM12 HAS                
 UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN UTAH BY 06Z FRIDAY WITH SURFACE             
 FRONT PUSHING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING. 12Z/8TH GFS ALSO               
 HAS CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN UTAH BY 00Z FRIDAY               
 WITH UPPER LOW PUSHING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO                    
 SATURDAY AND THEN INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY SUNDAY. LATEST DGEX                
 ALSO SUGGESTS A MORE NORTHERN TRACK WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.                     
 IN ANY CASE...COLDER TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS UNSETTLED METEOROLOGICAL          
 CONDITIONS ARE STILL PROJECTED FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST               
 FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH IF SYSTEM TRACKS MORE TO THE                           
 NORTH...SIGNIFICANT SNOW POTENTIAL WILL BE LESS LIKELY. AT THIS                
 TIME...THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING WOLF CREEK PASS              
 APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF RECEIVING HEAVY                             
 SNOW...ESPECIALLY FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY.                         
 HAVE ADJUSTED SEVERAL INHERITED GRIDS FOR THE LONG TERM...HOWEVER              
 THE MESSAGE OF COLDER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FROM LATER THURSDAY             
 INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND APPEARS STILL THE WAY TO GO.                         
 &&                                                                             
 .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NONE.                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> co                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO                                     
 426 AM MST MON JAN 8 2007                                                      
 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...                                   
 LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF NW CO AT 09Z AND            
 EXTENDING INTO THE CNTRL CO MTNS. APPEARS CORRELATED WITH A WEAK               
 SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FAST NW FLOW PORTRAYED IN THE RUC MODEL...           
 WHICH SHOWS LIFT AND CLOUDS DECREASING BETWEEN 15-18Z THIS MORNING             
 OVER THE PICEANCE BASIN/CRAIG/RIFLE AREAS AS IT PASSES.                        
 STRONG NW FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTH INTO TONIGHT THEN                 
 GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS AN UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT           
 BASIN. WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE NRN CO MTNS TODAY           
 AND THIS EVENING...TRENDING TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVER SE UT.             
 AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW STILL POSSIBLE FOR THE ELKHEAD/PARK/GORE RANGES          
 TODAY WITH 10,000 FT WINDS IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE ANTICIPATED.                  
 DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS TUE-TUE NIGHT...WITH THE RIDGE                 
 FLATTENING AND EVENTUALLY SHIFTING EAST ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE NEXT            
 WEATHER SYSTEM REACHES THE PAC NW. A WARMING TREND BEGINS AS FLOW              
 ALOFT BECOMES WEST TO SOUTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE RIDGE AXIS.            
 BEST WARM-UP WILL BE NOTED ON THE MID AND UPPER SLOPES AS THE WARMING          
 ALOFT STRENGTHENS VALLEY INVERSIONS AND RETARDS MIXING. KEPT MAX               
 TEMPS FOR THE VALLEYS BELOW MOS GUIDANCE. FORECAST SOUNDING INDICATES          
 POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG IN THE UINTA BASIN TUE NIGHT...SOMETHING TO             
 KEEP AN EYE ON.                                                                
 .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                       
 STRONG WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE            
 WEEK.  MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOWING IMPROVED CONSENSUS THAT A DEEP              
 COLD POLAR VORTEX WILL DIG SOUTH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON                 
 WEDNESDAY...THEN SHIFTING EAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN BY FRIDAY.  STILL          
 SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES AS THE GFS IS A LITTLE FARTHER WEST WITH THE            
 POSITIONING OF THE H5 LOW CENTER.  THIS DIFFERENCES AT THE H5 LEVEL            
 IS ALSO REFLECTED ON THE SURFACE PROGS...THE GFS PLACES THE SURFACE            
 LOW ALMOST CENTERED OVER GRAND JUNCTION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE          
 ECMWF IS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE SURFACE LOW TOWARD SERN NEW               
 MEXICO.  ALMOST HAVE TO AGREE WITH THE GFS SOLUTION AS THE POLAR               
 VORTEX WILL NOT BE IN ANY HURRY TO VACATE THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION             
 GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF UPSTREAM ENERGY. (THE KEY PLAYER MAY ACTUALLY BE           
 THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME STREAMING OVER MEXICO TOWARD THE SERN           
 CONUS.  WHILE THIS MOISTURE WILL NOT IMPACT OUR FORECAST AREA                  
 DIRECTLY...THE SUBTROPICAL JET MAY DETERMINE HOW SLOW THE EASTWARD             
 PROGRESSION OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE.)  BEFORE THE UPPER                
 TROUGH SHIFTS EAST...THE SURFACE FRONT WILL STALL AND THE GFS SHOWS            
 THIS OCCURRING OVER THE ERN UINTA MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWEST COLORADO             
 ON THURSDAY.  ONCE THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH AND EAST...IT WILL DO SO               
 SLOWLY WITH HEAVY SNOW CONCENTRATED ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.  THE            
 SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING HEAVY MOUNTAIN                     
 ACCUMULATIONS...BUT POSSIBLY INTO THE VALLEYS OF WESTERN COLORADO.             
 SNOW TAPERS OFF ON SATURDAY IN THE MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS THAT               
 SEEPS INTO THE NRN TWO THIRDS OF FORECAST AREA.  BUT THE CHANCE OF             
 SNOW DOES NOT END AS THEIR IS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE THAT WILL REINFORCE           
 THE TROUGH ON SUNDAY (THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON               
 THIS).  WHILE IT IS STILL EARLY TO ADD DETAIL...THE LEADING EDGE OF            
 THIS SYSTEM IS 72 HOURS AWAY AND WILL INCREASE AWARENESS AND USE               
 STRONG WORDING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.                               
 &&                                                                             
 .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 .CO...SEE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR WINTER STORM OUTLOOK.                  
 .UT...SEE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR WINTER STORM OUTLOOK.                  
 $$                                                                             
 JAD/PF                                                                         
</pre> co                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                        
 430 AM EST MON JAN 8 2007                                                      
 .SYNOPSIS...                                                                   
 08Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING             
 OUT OF THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY TOWARD THE EAST COAST.                  
 RIDGING ALONG THE EAST COAST AT THIS TIME WILL BE PUSHED OFF TO THE            
 EAST BY THIS FEATURE. THE TROUGH WILL THEN REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS            
 THE EAST THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITH GENERAL RIDGING DEVELOPING           
 ACROSS THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE WE SEE A COLD FRONT EXTENDING DOWN             
 THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS...ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AND INTO              
 THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS                  
 ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT HAS BEEN PUSHING EAST ACROSS OUR AREA               
 OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EARLIER IN THE NIGHT               
 HAVE WEAKENED AND EVEN A LIGHTNING STRIKE HAS BECOME HARD TO FIND              
 ALONG THE LINE. GENERALLY EXPECTING JUST A FEW MODERATE TO PERHAPS             
 HEAVY SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.                                       
 &&                                                                             
 .SHORT TERM...                                                                 
 (TODAY-WEDNESDAY) AS MENTIONED ABOVE...COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EAST           
 AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AND EXIT TO OUR            
 EAST BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED                       
 THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING WITH              
 CLEARING SKIES COMING IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW                  
 SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND INTO THE EARLY                
 AFTERNOON BUT THE FRONT IS ON THE MOVE AND NOT EXPECTING ANY                   
 SIGNIFICANT DELAYS IN THE FORECAST. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL                
 BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR                 
 ARRIVING BY THIS EVENING. BIG CHANGE WILL BE FELT TONIGHT FROM WHAT            
 HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED LATELY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S             
 AND LOWER 40S REGIONWIDE. NOT EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE              
 FREEZING MARK MOST LOCATIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE WEST WILL            
 KEEP THE GRADIENT TIGHT AND NOT ALLOW IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING                
 CONDITIONS TO SET UP.                                                          
 HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY PUSHES EAST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A              
 NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE COOL. EXPECTING CLEAR            
 TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES                    
 GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. AS THE HIGH GETS            
 CLOSER TUESDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL DROP OFF AND THE POTENTIAL IS HIGH             
 FOR NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS TO DROP A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING             
 TOWARD DAWN ON WEDNESDAY. THINK MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE                   
 IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. HIGH PRESSURE              
 PUSHES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN ENOUGH           
 IN CONTROL OF THE REGION TO KEEP WINDS OVER LAND FAIRLY LOW. THIS              
 WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ANOTHER NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO            
 THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S FOR MANY LOCATIONS.                                   
 .LONG TERM...                                                                  
 (THURSDAY-MONDAY) FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE              
 FORECAST AREA INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. SURFACE AND UPPER            
 LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY              
 WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL           
 LIKELY BE BACK UP INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S FOR MANY LOCATIONS.            
 GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE            
 MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT ALL ARE IN           
 AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THIS FEATURE EASTWARD VERY SLOWLY. DID ALLOW             
 FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN INTO OUR ALABAMA ZONES SATURDAY                    
 NIGHT...BUT EVEN THIS MAY BE A BIT FAST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM               
 CHANCES AT THIS TIME WOULD NOT BEGIN TO REALLY INCREASE UNTIL THE              
 DAY ON SUNDAY AND EVEN MORE SO SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.                       
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING THE BEGINNING AND END OF            
 THE RAIN...LOW CLOUD COVER...AND WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE                
 APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WE FOLLOWED A BLEND OF SHORT TERM LINEAR               
 EXTRAPOLATION...THE RUC...AND GFS MOS TO DO THIS. MOSTLY MVFR                  
 CEILINGS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...BUT               
 SOME LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS (AND SOME WIND GUSTS FROM 20-30 KT) WILL             
 OCCUR IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE GFS MOS FORECASTS SOME RATHER                
 DENSE FOG FOR DHN THIS MORNING...BUT THIS SEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY                
 GIVEN THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL SOON PASS THROUGH AND COLD/DRY AIR              
 ADVECTION AND VERTICAL MIXING WILL TAKE PLACE. WE EXPECT THE MVFR              
 CEILINGS TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID TO LATE               
 MORNING...AS MUCH DRIER AIR RUSHES INTO OUR AREA. GUSTY NORTHWEST              
 WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL ABATE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND             
 BECOME QUITE LIGHT BY THIS EVENING.                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .MARINE...                                                                     
 COLD FRONT EXITS EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE MORNING HOURS           
 TODAY BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY                  
 NORTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO REACH                
 CAUTION LEVELS ACROSS THE NEARSHORE LEGS AND ADVISORY CRITERIA                 
 ACROSS THE OFFSHORE LEGS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE NEARSHORE CLOSELY             
 AND MAKE SURE CONDITIONS DO NOT BRIEFLY REACH ADVISORY LEVELS THIS             
 MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT                  
 THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS ELEVATED TO NEAR                
 CAUTION LEVELS... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE LEGS. HIGH PRESSURE           
 THEN PUSHES EAST AND MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT              
 AND THURSDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST DURING THIS TIME           
 BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED...WITH NEAR CAUTION LEVELS AT              
 TIMES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.                                        
 &&                                                                             
 .FIRE WEATHER...                                                               
 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...BRINGING            
 WITH IT CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN. THE CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL GRADUALLY              
 DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS DRIER           
 AIR INFILTRATES THE REGION WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE DRY                 
 AIRMASS WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TUESDAY TO PRODUCE LOW RH            
 VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY REACHING RED FLAG CRITERIA IN           
 THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND EASTERN PANHANDLE.                                    
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 TALLAHASSEE 66  36  61  30  59 /  50  05  00  00  00                           
 PANAMA CITY 64  40  61  36  61 /  20  00  00  00  00                           
 DOTHAN      63  36  58  30  58 /  20  00  00  00  00                           
 ALBANY      63  34  58  31  58 /  30  00  00  00  00                           
 VALDOSTA    66  36  60  32  58 /  60  05  00  00  00                           
 CROSS CITY  70  37  63  32  62 /  60  10  00  00  00                           
 &&                                                                             
 .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 AL...NONE.                                                                     
 GA...NONE.                                                                     
 FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL EASTERN FLORIDA              
 PANHANDLE AND FLORIDA BIG BEND ZONES.                                          
 GMZ750/755...NONE.                                                             
 GMZ770/775...SCA UNTIL 5 PM EST (4 PM CST) THIS AFTERNOON.                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 AVIATION/FIREWX...FOURNIER                                                     
 REST OF DISCUSSION...MROCZKA                                                   
</pre> fl                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                            
 1044 AM CST SUN JAN 7 2007                                                     
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 LONG WAVE TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL               
 BOUNDARY STILL BTWN THE MISSOURI AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS.                
 PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH IMPULSE THAT MOVED UP                 
 THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING PRECIP TO AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 55            
 IN THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.  RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING                
 ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVING INTO THE STL METRO...AND NOT WILLING TO PULL            
 THE LIKELY POPS TO THE SE.  WILL LEAVE POPS AND WEATHER ALONE FOR              
 NOW...BUT HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TEMPS TO DROP THEM A COUPLE OF             
 DEGREES NW OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER...AND PEORIA.  NOT ISSUING A NEW              
 ZONE PACKAGE AS WORDING IMPACT WOULD BE MINIMAL.                               
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 IMMEDIATE SHORT-TERM CONCERN WILL BE WAVE LIFTING FROM THE GULF                
 COAST INTO THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY TODAY...AND HOW FAR NORTHWEST IT            
 WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN.  AFTER THAT...STILL WATCHING CLIPPER SYSTEM            
 AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA MONDAY               
 NIGHT.                                                                         
 ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE RIDGING PERSISTING ACROSS CENTRAL                       
 ILLINOIS...WHILE LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE ALONG THE GULF COAST.                
 FURTHER WEST...NEXT COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO THE PLAINS STATES.              
 ALOFT...COMPLICATED PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE                       
 CONUS...WITH NUMEROUS WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW.  ONE WAVE IS             
 TRACKING ACROSS TEXAS...WHILE A SECOND IS DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT             
 OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  FURTHER UPSTREAM...MONDAY NIGHT CLIPPER              
 SYSTEM IS ALREADY VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY APPROACHING THE               
 COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA.                                                     
 SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...                                          
 FIRST ISSUE TO DEAL WITH WILL BE APPROACHING SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM            
 TODAY.  06Z OBS SHOW LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING AND MOVING NORTHEASTWARD            
 ACROSS E TEXAS/SW ARKANSAS.  00Z MODELS HANDLE THE QPF FIELD QUITE             
 WELL...HOWEVER BASED ON 06Z VERIFICATION...THINK NAM-WRF MAY BE A              
 BIT BETTER THAN EITHER THE RUC OR GFS.  REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL              
 YOU FOLLOW...THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL SHIFT E/NE INTO THE OHIO              
 VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIP AFFECTING THE               
 KILX CWA.  THERE WILL BE A GOOD DEAL OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR ENTRENCHED           
 ACROSS THE AREA INITIALLY...WHICH WILL TEND TO INHIBIT THE                     
 NORTHWESTWARD SPREAD OF ANY PRECIP.  BASED ON NAM-WRF QPF FIELDS AND           
 FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN AS              
 FAR NW AS THE I-55 CORRIDOR...WITH POPS INCREASING FURTHER SE.  BEST           
 BET FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70...SO WILL BUMP              
 POPS UP TO LIKELY IN THAT AREA.                                                
 SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION LATER                 
 TODAY...TAKING ANY SHOWERS INTO INDIANA.  MEANWHILE...NORTHERN                 
 STREAM WAVE CURRENTLY COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES APPROACHES BY THIS             
 EVENING...HELPING PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO ILLINOIS.  MODELS             
 ARE HINTING AT SOME LIGHT QPF...AS CAA BEGINS IN EARNEST AND STRONG            
 UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  TIME-HEIGHT CROSS-SECTIONS               
 REVEAL JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE/LIFT TO PERHAPS SQUEEZE OUT A FEW                  
 FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES BEFORE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA               
 AFTER MIDNIGHT.                                                                
 COLDER WEATHER IN STORE BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY...BEFORE NEXT               
 SYSTEM QUICKLY APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY.  00Z 7 JAN MODELS ARE IN            
 GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ONE ANOTHER AND SHOW EXCELLENT CONTINUITY WITH             
 PREVIOUS RUNS CONCERNING THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.  THE             
 ONLY DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE LATEST RUN DIGS THE UPPER WAVE A BIT               
 FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS.  BOTTOM LINE WILL BE LIGHT              
 PRECIP DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHWEST ILLINOIS MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN            
 SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS MONDAY NIGHT.  BASED ON TRACK OF             
 UPPER VORT MAX...BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN           
 TWO-THIRDS OF THE KILX CWA.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MOSTLY LIGHT           
 SNOW...EXCEPT MAYBE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE S/SE CWA.  SNOW                 
 ACCUMULATION WILL REMAIN LIGHT...WITH PERHAPS UPWARDS OF A HALF INCH           
 ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-74 CORRIDOR.                                          
 LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...                                      
 UPPER PATTERN TRANSITIONS BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY LATER IN THE                   
 WEEK...RESULTING IN MODERATING TEMPS.  BAROCLINIC ZONE BETWEEN                 
 DEEPENING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH AND EASTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL SET UP             
 ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  AS THIS            
 FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD INTO ILLINOIS...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE               
 THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  LATEST RUN OF THE GFS SUGGESTS THE               
 BOUNDARY MAY SETTLE A BIT FURTHER SOUTHWARD THAN PREVIOUSLY                    
 THOUGHT...REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE STALLING OUT FRIDAY AND              
 SATURDAY.  RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO             
 THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER IF GFS VERIFIES...THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN MAY              
 REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA.                                                 
 &&                                                                             
 .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NONE.                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 HJS/BARNES                                                                     
</pre> il                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                            
 120 AM CST SUN JAN 7 2007                                                      
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 IMMEDIATE SHORT-TERM CONCERN WILL BE WAVE LIFTING FROM THE GULF                
 COAST INTO THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY TODAY...AND HOW FAR NORTHWEST IT            
 WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN.  AFTER THAT...STILL WATCHING CLIPPER SYSTEM            
 AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA MONDAY               
 NIGHT.                                                                         
 ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE RIDGING PERSISTING ACROSS CENTRAL                       
 ILLINOIS...WHILE LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE ALONG THE GULF COAST.                
 FURTHER WEST...NEXT COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO THE PLAINS STATES.              
 ALOFT...COMPLICATED PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE                       
 CONUS...WITH NUMEROUS WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW.  ONE WAVE IS             
 TRACKING ACROSS TEXAS...WHILE A SECOND IS DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT             
 OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  FURTHER UPSTREAM...MONDAY NIGHT CLIPPER              
 SYSTEM IS ALREADY VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY APPROACHING THE               
 COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA.                                                     
 SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...                                          
 FIRST ISSUE TO DEAL WITH WILL BE APPROACHING SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM            
 TODAY.  06Z OBS SHOW LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING AND MOVING NORTHEASTWARD            
 ACROSS E TEXAS/SW ARKANSAS.  00Z MODELS HANDLE THE QPF FIELD QUITE             
 WELL...HOWEVER BASED ON 06Z VERIFICATION...THINK NAM-WRF MAY BE A              
 BIT BETTER THAN EITHER THE RUC OR GFS.  REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL              
 YOU FOLLOW...THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL SHIFT E/NE INTO THE OHIO              
 VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIP AFFECTING THE               
 KILX CWA.  THERE WILL BE A GOOD DEAL OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR ENTRENCHED           
 ACROSS THE AREA INITIALLY...WHICH WILL TEND TO INHIBIT THE                     
 NORTHWESTWARD SPREAD OF ANY PRECIP.  BASED ON NAM-WRF QPF FIELDS AND           
 FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN AS              
 FAR NW AS THE I-55 CORRIDOR...WITH POPS INCREASING FURTHER SE.  BEST           
 BET FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70...SO WILL BUMP              
 POPS UP TO LIKELY IN THAT AREA.                                                
 SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION LATER                 
 TODAY...TAKING ANY SHOWERS INTO INDIANA.  MEANWHILE...NORTHERN                 
 STREAM WAVE CURRENTLY COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES APPROACHES BY THIS             
 EVENING...HELPING PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO ILLINOIS.  MODELS             
 ARE HINTING AT SOME LIGHT QPF...AS CAA BEGINS IN EARNEST AND STRONG            
 UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  TIME-HEIGHT CROSS-SECTIONS               
 REVEAL JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE/LIFT TO PERHAPS SQUEEZE OUT A FEW                  
 FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES BEFORE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA               
 AFTER MIDNIGHT.                                                                
 COLDER WEATHER IN STORE BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY...BEFORE NEXT               
 SYSTEM QUICKLY APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY.  00Z 7 JAN MODELS ARE IN            
 GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ONE ANOTHER AND SHOW EXCELLENT CONTINUITY WITH             
 PREVIOUS RUNS CONCERNING THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.  THE             
 ONLY DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE LATEST RUN DIGS THE UPPER WAVE A BIT               
 FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS.  BOTTOM LINE WILL BE LIGHT              
 PRECIP DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHWEST ILLINOIS MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN            
 SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS MONDAY NIGHT.  BASED ON TRACK OF             
 UPPER VORT MAX...BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN           
 TWO-THIRDS OF THE KILX CWA.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MOSTLY LIGHT           
 SNOW...EXCEPT MAYBE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE S/SE CWA.  SNOW                 
 ACCUMULATION WILL REMAIN LIGHT...WITH PERHAPS UPWARDS OF A HALF INCH           
 ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-74 CORRIDOR.                                          
 LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...                                      
 UPPER PATTERN TRANSITIONS BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY LATER IN THE                   
 WEEK...RESULTING IN MODERATING TEMPS.  BAROCLINIC ZONE BETWEEN                 
 DEEPENING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH AND EASTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL SET UP             
 ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  AS THIS            
 FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD INTO ILLINOIS...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE               
 THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  LATEST RUN OF THE GFS SUGGESTS THE               
 BOUNDARY MAY SETTLE A BIT FURTHER SOUTHWARD THAN PREVIOUSLY                    
 THOUGHT...REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE STALLING OUT FRIDAY AND              
 SATURDAY.  RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO             
 THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER IF GFS VERIFIES...THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN MAY              
 REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA.                                                 
 &&                                                                             
 .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NONE.                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 BARNES                                                                         
</pre> il                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN                                       
 553 AM EST SUN JAN 7 2007                                                      
 .AVIATION.../DISCUSSION FOR 071200Z TAFS/                                      
 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO KY THIS AFTN. RAIN WITH VFR CONDS                  
 ALREADY IN SRN IL NEAR 11Z. THUS HAVE SPED UP ARRIVAL OF RAIN IN               
 THIS SET OF TAFS. EXPECT RAIN TO MOVE SW TO NE ACROSS THE TAF                  
 SITES...GRADUALLY LOWERING THE CONDS TO IFR BY 20Z. LATEST RUC CIG             
 FORECASTS SUPPORT THIS THINKING. IFR CONDS MAY ARRIVE SOONER IF                
 FASTER TREND CONTINUES.                                                        
 RAIN MAY TAPER OFF AROUND 06Z...DEPENDING ON TIMING OF UPPER TROF.             
 HAVE DECIDED TO JUST CONTINUE WITH A VCSH TO INDICATE PRECIP                   
 POTENTIAL AFT 06Z. IF PRECIP CONTINUES...COULD BE RA/SN MIX AFT 06Z            
 AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES. IMPROVED CONDS TO MVFR AROUND 06Z TOO AS                
 SYSTEM BEGINS TO EXIT.                                                         
 &&                                                                             
 .SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...                                             
 FORECAST FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON RAIN EVENT TODAY AND PRECIP             
 TONIGHT.                                                                       
 AT 06Z FORECAST AREA /FA/ WAS UNDER INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE                 
 CENTERED IN OH. LOW PRESSURE WAS ORGANIZING IN LOWER MS VALLEY.                
 MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. WILL USE A BLEND.                
 AS SURFACE LOW BEGINS ITS JOURNEY TO KY TODAY...ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL           
 BE INCREASING. MOISTURE WILL BE GRADUALLY INCREASING AS WELL. UPPER            
 JET WILL ALSO BE IN THE AREA...ADDING TO THE LIFT. THUS FEEL THAT              
 RAIN WILL BECOME MORE PROBABLE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. BEST CHANCES             
 FOR RAIN WILL BE CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW...SO WILL TIER POPS FROM            
 LIKELY NW TO CATEGORICAL SE. MAV/MET NUMBERS ARE SIMILAR AND LOOK              
 GOOD MOST AREAS GIVEN THE EXPECTED RAIN.                                       
 TONIGHT THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA. QVECTORS INDICATE              
 GOOD FORCING WITH TROF PASSAGE TONIGHT. ALSO...RELATIVELY STRONG               
 FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS IN THE MID LEVELS. THUS FEEL THAT LIKELY POPS             
 LOOK GOOD FOR BULK OF FA TO PAST MIDNIGHT. AFTER TROF                          
 PASSES...FORCING WEAKENS RAPIDLY...SO WILL ONLY HAVE CHANCE POPS BY            
 LATE TONIGHT. WARM LOW LEVELS SHOULD KEEP PRECIP TYPE AS RAIN TIL              
 06Z OR SO...THEN A TRANSITION TO SNOW WILL OCCUR. BULK OF PRECIP IS            
 OVER BEFORE CHANGEOVER AND GROUND IS WARM...SO WILL PUT LITTLE IF              
 ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IN GRIDS. COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FLOW INTO             
 THE FA LATE. MAV/MET NUMBERS REFLECT THIS AND THUS LOOK OK FOR LOWS.           
 &&                                                                             
 .LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
 FCST FOCUS ON CLIPPER SYSTEM MON NIGHT...THEN ON WHAT PROMISES TO BE           
 A VERY WET PERIOD BY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.                              
 NO SIG INITIALIZATION ERRORS NOTED ON THE 00Z RUN. I WILL USE A                
 BLEND OF ETA/GFS FOR TEMPS AND PRECIP TIMING THROUGH TUES.                     
 MON...ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY LINGER AROUND 12Z MON...I FEEL            
 THAT THE BULK OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY. MOCLDY SKIES MAY PERSIST MON             
 AND THIS COULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE 30S AS INDICATED BY MET MOS. FWC              
 MOS APPEARS MUCH TOO COOL. FOR NOW HIGHS WILL REFLECT A BLEND OF               
 MAV/MET.                                                                       
 MON NIGHT-TUES...ETA/GFS REMAIN REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH THE                 
 TIMING AND APPROXIMATE TRACK OF A DISTURBANCE. ETA/GFS BOTH SHOW               
 CHANNELED 500MB VORT MAXIMUM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN IN WITH PRECIP             
 DEVELOPING AFTER 00Z. PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUGGEST MAINLY SNOW AND              
 HIGH RH IN THE SNOW GROWTH LAYER -12C TO -16C BACKS THIS UP.                   
 HOWEVER, MOS POPS ARE RELATIVELY LOW AS SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING AND             
 UPPER MOTION IS FCST TO BE WEAK. GIVEN RECENT POOR MODEL PRECIP FCST           
 SKILL, I`M WARY OF THIS SINCE THE DISTURBANCE WAS STILL OFF THE BC             
 COAST AT 00Z. 12Z RUN SHOULD INGEST UA AND MAY PROVE MORE                      
 INSIGHTFUL. FOR NOW I WILL KEEP POPS CLOSE TO THE SREF ENSEMBLE SNOW           
 CHCS WHICH ARE CLOSER TO THE MET MOS WITH AMOUNTS AROUND ONE INCH OR           
 LESS.                                                                          
 WEDS AND BEYOND...UNFORTUNATELY LOOK FOR A VERY WET PERIOD WITH                
 SIGNIFICANT RAINS IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES POSSIBLE BEGINNING THURS             
 NIGHT. ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SHOW THE AREA TRAPPED BETWEEN ANOMALOUSLY            
 HIGH HTS ACROSS THE SE U.S. AND A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS             
 THE WEST. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT RAIN MAY LAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.             
 &&                                                                             
 .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                       
 $$                                                                             
 AVIATION...CS                                                                  
 SHORT TERM...CS                                                                
 LONG TERM...CO                                                                 
</pre> in                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                             
 420 AM CST SUN JAN 7 2007                                                      
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 A FEW WINDY DAYS PRESENT THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES THROUGH THE              
 START OF THE WORK WEEK.                                                        
 AT 09Z SURFACE OBS AND PROFILERS INDICATE A COLD FRONT MOVING                  
 SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL NE AND NORTHWESTERN KS.  WATER VAPOR                 
 IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE              
 NORTHERN PLAINS.  HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE RIDING ALONG THE                
 FRONT...WITH SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATA CU WELL NORTH OF THE              
 BOUNDARY.                                                                      
 TRACKING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL ENTER THE            
 NORTHWESTERN CWA AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING...AND PUSH QUICKLY                    
 SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AROUND 15Z.  THERE IS               
 SOME COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT THIS NEW AIRMASS IS NOT                   
 DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT THAN THE ONE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  THE BIGGEST            
 IMPACT THE FRONT WILL PRESENT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF BREEZY                    
 NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 35 TO 40              
 MPH IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.  06Z RUC INDICATES A CORE OF 45-50 KT              
 H850 WINDS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL KS DIRECTLY BEHIND THE                       
 FRONT...HOWEVER BY THE TIME BETTER MIXING CAN OCCUR AFTER                      
 SUNRISE...H850 WINDS SETTLE DOWN TO 35-40 KTS.  WITH DECENT CLOUD              
 COVERAGE BEHIND THE FRONT FEEL NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE               
 ACCOMPANIED BY STRONGEST GUSTS OF THE DAY THIS MORNING INTO THE                
 EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AND THEN DIMINISH SOMEWHAT DURING THE                  
 AFTERNOON HOURS.  SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW                 
 ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON BUT SOME OF THE STRONGER GUSTS                
 COULD PROVE TO BE HAZARDOUS TO HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.  WILL MENTION            
 STRONGER GUSTS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT DO NOT FEEL AN           
 ADVISORY IS APPROPRIATE AT THIS TIME AS SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD NOT             
 CLIMB ABOVE 30 MPH.  THE DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS OVER            
 NORTH CENTRAL KS IN CASE THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL WIND CORE REMAINS IN           
 PLACE LONGER THAN EXPECTED.  OTHERWISE RELATIVELY COOLER AIR WILL              
 MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT BETTER MIXING               
 WILL SOMEWHAT COMPENSATE FOR THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...AND                      
 TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAY`S           
 READINGS.  RAISED CLOUD COVERAGE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THE FORECAST AREA            
 THIS AFTERNOON WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND STRATA CU PROVIDING MORE              
 ROBUST CLOUD COVERAGE THAN ADVERTISED.                                         
 SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE PASSAGE OF THIS FIRST COLD             
 FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO             
 BUILD IN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HIGH                  
 PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED           
 IN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL DIVE OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA MONDAY                 
 MORNING...AND MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY                    
 EVENING.  THIS FAST MOVING WAVE WILL BRING HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY               
 THROUGH THE PLAINS...BRINGING WINDS AROUND TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST               
 LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.  AS THE WAVE MOVES EAST OF              
 THE FORECAST AREA IT WILL BRING ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE             
 CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON.  ALONG AND BEHIND THIS FRONT WINDS            
 WILL ONCE AGAIN PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO 20 TO 25 MPH...WITH            
 GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  WINDS MAY TEMPORARILY              
 REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA NORTH OF HIGHWAY 24 MONDAY AFTERNOON AS                
 DAYTIME MIXING WILL INTERACT WITH A STRONG CORE OF 50 TO 55 KT H850            
 WIND CORE TO BRING SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 MPH.  AFTER SUNSET MIXING           
 WILL NOT BE AS EFFICIENT AND SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH                   
 SOMEWHAT TO NEAR 20 MPH.  WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH NO                 
 PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT...AND ONCE AGAIN                     
 TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH BEHIND THE FRONT.  IN             
 FACT TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY CLIMB SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE            
 SUNDAY`S HIGHS AS STRONGER WINDS WILL PROMOTE BETTER MIXING BEFORE             
 THE COOLEST AIR BEHIND THE FRONT HAS A CHANCE TO MOVE INTO THE                 
 FORECAST AREA.  WITH THE BULK OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE                
 SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE COOLEST                  
 TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES.                       
 TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND FRONT HIGH                 
 PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVE            
 THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING SOME RELIEF             
 TO A COUPLE OF GUSTY BOUTS OF NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.  HIGH PRESSURE              
 WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING                
 WINDS AROUND TO THE SOUTH FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.  THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW              
 WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS           
 INTO THE PLAINS AND THE FAST NORTHWEST FLOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.             
 THIS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS DUE TO A STRONG ARCTIC AIRMASS              
 PUSHING SOUTH OUT OF WESTERN CANADA...MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS            
 ON WEDNESDAY.  THE POLAR JET STREAM WILL DIG INTO THE BASE OF THIS             
 TROUGH DIGGING THE BASE SOUTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES THURSDAY.                    
 MEANWHILE A WAVE WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE MAIN TROUGH ON                      
 WEDNESDAY...PUSHING EAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN BORDER.  THE              
 PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE EAST WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO THE ARCTIC AIR TO              
 DIVE SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY...BRINGING SHALLOW              
 ARCTIC AIR THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THE                  
 DETAILS OF THE FORECAST BEYOND THIS POINT BECOME INCREASINGLY                  
 DIFFICULT AS SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR IS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST IN THE LONG           
 RANGE MODELS.  ADDING TO THE DIFFICULTY IS THAT THE MAIN ENERGY                
 PUSHING THE ARCTIC AIR SOUTH WILL MOVE OFF INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT             
 LAKES REGION THURSDAY...TO THE EXTENT AND DEPTH OF THE ARCTIC AIR              
 THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA IS UNCERTAIN.  WHAT LOOKS MORE CERTAIN AT            
 THIS POINT IS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE                           
 BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KS.  THIS                
 PATTERN WOULD BRING ANOTHER WINDY DAY TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST                  
 AREA...AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WOULD BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE                
 LOWER 50S FOR WEDNESDAY.  TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY ARE DIFFICULT AS            
 THEY ARE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE               
 FORECAST AREA.  AT THIS TIME NORTH CENTRAL KS IS MORE LIKELY TO SEE            
 COOLER TEMPERATURES WHILE EAST CENTRAL KS IS MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN             
 IN THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE             
 NORTHERN PLAINS.  FORECAST ON THURSDAY AND BEYOND WILL LIKELY                  
 UNDERGO SEVERAL ADJUSTMENTS AS THE SHALLOW COLD AIR IS HANDLED AND             
 SAMPLED BETTER IN THE SHORT RANGE MODELS.                                      
 EXTENDED...GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY STALLING THE H850 PORTION OF              
 THE FRONT OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  THIS WOULD SET UP A GOOD                    
 BAROCLINIC ZONE AND INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  THE               
 DETAILS OF THE DEPTH AND PUSH OF THE COLD AIR ARE VERY IMPORTANT AS            
 H850 DEWPOINTS OF 6 TO 10 DEGREES C CAN BE FOUND SOUTH OF THE                  
 FRONT...WITH H850 TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS OF -15 DEG C AND LOWER            
 ARE NORTH OF THE FRONT.  WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE AND INVERTED TROUGH            
 OVER THE THE FORECAST AREA...WRAPPING 6 TO 10 DEGREE H850 MOISTURE             
 OVER SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR WOULD PRESENT AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS                   
 SITUATION TO THE FORECAST AREA.  SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET            
 ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE.  AT THIS              
 TIME HAVE NOT TOUCHED THE FORECAST THURSDAY AND BEYOND AS MINOR                
 CHANGES IN THE ARCTIC AIR CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE FORECAST AREA               
 COULD DRASTICALLY CHANGE THE OUTCOME OF ANY PRECIPITATION THAT MAY             
 FALL GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.                                                   
 &&                                                                             
 .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                       
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 DC                                                                             
</pre> ks                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                         
 945 PM EST SUN JAN 7 2007                                                      
 .OVERNIGHT UPDATE...                                                           
 SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO AT 02Z WITH A COLD FRONT           
 MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.. VERY LOW            
 CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPED... REDUCING VISIBILITIES IN THE BLUEGRASS             
 REGION TO LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE WITH 1/8 MILE REPORTED AT                    
 BLUEGRASS AIRPORT. FURTHER WEST LIGHT RAIN WAS FALLING WITH                    
 INCREASING WINDS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. WITH THE                
 INCREASING WINDS VISIBILITIES OVER THE WEST HAVE INCREASED AND WE              
 EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE OVER THE EAST BY OR SHORTLY AFTER               
 MIDNIGHT. HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD LONGER WITH            
 SOME RAIN STILL OCCURING OVER EXTREME WESTERN KENTUCKY.                        
 HAVE ALREADY SENT FORECAST UPDATE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT FOG           
 OVER THE BLUEGRASS REGION WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS.                     
 PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...                                                   
 SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...                                             
 THE SFC LOW THAT BROUGHT ALL OF THE RAIN TODAY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED            
 OVER THE SERN CWA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM MESONET AND ASOS SITES                
 RANGE FROM ABOUT A HALF INCH TO OVER ONE INCH ACROSS THE SRN CWA.              
 THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAINFALL IS NOW LOCATED EAST OF I-65. CURRENT             
 VIS SATELLITE EVEN SHOWING A SMALL BREAK IN THE STRATUS FROM SDF               
 TO BWG. HOWEVER THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG AS IFR-LIFR CEILINGS ARE               
 LOCATED JUST UPSTREAM.                                                         
 CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE 09Z SREF IS AT LEAST THREE            
 HOURS TOO SLOW WITH THE POPS...AND THE NAM...GFS AND RUC ARE ABOUT             
 SIX HOURS TOO SLOW. SO FEEL CONFIDENT ENDING CAT POPS EARLY THIS               
 EVENING. HOWEVER MORE PRECIP POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT               
 WITH MOISTURE ON BACK SIDE OF SFC LOW (SHOWN FROM LOW                          
 STRATUS/WESTERLY WINDS ABOUT TO ENTER WRN CWA) AIDED BY UPPER                  
 TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER MN DOWN TO NW MO. SOME UPSTREAM                  
 TRACE AMOUNTS UP TO A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS HERE AND THERE ARE                  
 BEING REPORTED...AND CAN SEE THE LIGHT PRECIP FROM PAH/VWX RADARS.             
 THOUGH IT WILL BE LIGHT...PRECIP CHANCES LOOK GOOD OVERNIGHT AND               
 WILL BEGIN TONIGHT`S GRID WITH CHC POPS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE FAR              
 WEST WHERE I WILL HAVE LOW LIKELY POPS...WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND           
 DRIZZLE WORDING. IN ADDITION...WINDS COULD BE GUSTY OVERNIGHT WITH             
 UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE...SO HAVE THIS REFLECTED IN GRIDS AS WELL.                
 ALL SREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE THAT PRECIP WILL EXIT TO OUR                
 NE BY 12Z MONDAY...SO WILL END POPS OVERNIGHT BY SUNRISE. SOME OF              
 THE LIGHT PRECIP TOWARD DAYBREAK COULD BE A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX OR             
 JUST FLURRIES. SO WILL KEEP THIS TREND IN THE GRIDS. NO SNOW                   
 ACCUMULATION GIVEN WET GROUNDS AND TEMPS AOA FREEZING. WITH CLOUDS             
 AND EXPECTED PRECIP AND MIXY CONDITIONS...WILL KEEP THE WARMEST                
 OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE ERN AND SERN CWA. FOR AVIATION                       
 CONCERNS...SFC WINDS WILL LIKELY BE TOO STRONG TO MENTION                      
 LLWS...THOUGH 30-40 KTS POSSIBLE AT 850MB OVERNIGHT. ALSO CEILINGS             
 SHOULD NOT CLIMB OUT OF THE IFR CATEGORY UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER             
 THE WEST AND TOWARD SUNRISE OVER THE EAST.                                     
 FOR MONDAY...SFC LOW AND TROUGH SLIDE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...AND               
 WILL DRY OUT FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS. USED RAW GFS/NAM GRIDS FOR HIGHS              
 TOMORROW AS MOS IS LIKELY OVERDOING THE TEMP REBOUND. HAVE UPPER 30S           
 NE TO LOW 40S SW...WITH EXTREME SWRN CWA PERHAPS REACHING THE MID              
 40S WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE MOST SUNSHINE TOMORROW. CLOUDS AND            
 WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST AS THE            
 NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE CWA.                                                
 AL                                                                             
 .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                  
 PLENTY OF WEATHER GOING ON IN THE LONG TERM THIS FORECAST PERIOD.              
 THE FIRST ITEM TO EXAMINE IS A CLIPPER SYSTEM COMING UP MONDAY NIGHT           
 INTO TUESDAY.                                                                  
 CLIPPER LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND BE POSITIONED OVER WISCONSIN AT           
 THE START OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH           
 INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE CLIPPER WILL HEAD EAST INTO            
 WESTERN LAKE ERIE BY 12Z TUESDAY MORNING AND WILL DRAG ITS COLD                
 FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND THAT SAME TIME. SO...BEST CHANCE OF               
 PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO                  
 TUESDAY MORNING...WITH MOISTURE PULLING OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.                 
 NAM KEEPS US COMPLETELY DRY WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH IS PROBABLY NOT           
 REALISTIC. GFS BRINGS PRECIPITATION INTO THE ENTIRE REGION BUT IS              
 EXHIBITING AN ODD MOISTURE PATTERN AND IS KNOWN FOR PRINTING OUT TOO           
 MUCH QPF. ALSO...THE HEART OF THE SYSTEM WILL STAY RATHER FAR TO OUR           
 NORTH.                                                                         
 PRECIPITATION TYPE IS ANOTHER CHALLENGE WITH THIS SYSTEM. USING A              
 TOP-DOWN APPROACH WITH MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS IT APPEARS WE WILL             
 EXPERIENCE A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT LEAST FOR THE EVENING HOURS MONDAY               
 BEFORE BECOMING MOSTLY SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY                    
 MORNING...AND EVEN THEN MAY BE MIXED WITH RAIN ESPECIALLY SOUTH. AS            
 THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH TEMPERATURES WILL START TO FALL BUT BY           
 THEN MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE LEAVING. SO...THESE FACTORS WILL             
 SERVE TO DECREASE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. BOTTOM LINE...RIGHT NOW OVER THE           
 COURSE OF THE EVENT IT LOOKS LIKE MAYBE A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH             
 IN THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE BORDER...HALF AN INCH FROM                  
 LOUISVILLE WEST AND NORTH...AND HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN THE BLUE            
 GRASS AROUND LEXINGTON...ESPECIALLY ON THE HIGHER HILLTOPS ALONG AND           
 EAST OF INTERSTATE 75 WHERE SOME UPSLOPING AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS CAN           
 COME IN TO PLAY. SO...NOT A BIG SNOWSTORM BY ANY MEANS. GROUND                 
 TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY WARM SO RUSH HOUR TUESDAY                
 MORNING SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANTLY HAMPERED AS THE LIGHT SNOW                 
 QUICKLY MELTS OFF THE WARM PAVEMENT.                                           
 REALLY...THE BIGGER STORY ON TUESDAY MAY SIMPLY BE HOW UNCOMFORTABLE           
 IT WILL FEEL OUTSIDE. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CAUSE           
 TEMPERATURES TO FALL SLOWLY THROUGH THE 30S ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL            
 BE COMBINED WITH WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30 MPH.               
 THIS WILL PRODUCE DAYTIME WINDCHILLS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S.                 
 SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO               
 DROP. THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE NOSING IN AND CLEARING OUR                
 SKIES IS PRIMARILY OF PACIFIC ORIGIN...SO BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES           
 ARE NOT EXPECTED. READINGS SHOULD FALL TO JUST ABOUT NORMAL FOR                
 MID-JANUARY...WHICH IS LOW TO MIDDLE 20S...MAYBE DOWN TO AROUND 20             
 IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS THAT MANAGE TO GET A BIT OF SNOW ON THE                 
 GROUND. WINDS SHOULD STAY UP AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH SO THAT WILL ALSO              
 HELP TO KEEP THE BOTTOM FROM FALLING OUT OF THE TEMPERATURES.                  
 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS            
 WILL THEN KEEP US DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.                                        
 THE NEXT BIG WESTERN UPPER TROF WILL DIG IN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND             
 WILL BUDGE EASTWARD ONLY INTO THE PLAINS BY THE END OF THIS FORECAST           
 PERIOD. A SURFACE LOW SCOOTING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL PULL A              
 COLD FRONT INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS BY THURSDAY NIGHT.            
 WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN DEVELOPING ON THE SOUTHWESTERN           
 PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT AND RIPPLE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE                   
 FRONT...WHICH WILL SERVE TO GREATLY SLOW DOWN THE FRONT/S EASTWARD             
 PROGRESS. AS A RESULT...WE HAVE A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FROM                 
 THURSDAY NIGHT RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AND             
 LIKELY BEYOND AS WELL. LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH             
 TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION RAIN THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SUNDAY.              
 WITH THE FRONT VIRTUALLY STALLED IN OUR AREA FOR SO LONG SOME                  
 APPRECIABLE RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE POSSIBLE. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS               
 LIKE AMOUNTS OF TWO INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE SPAN OF THURSDAY           
 NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH THE GROUND ALREADY SOAKED FROM THE RECENT           
 WET WEATHER THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME MINOR RIVER ISSUES. STAY TUNED.              
 THANKS TO IND...ILN...AND JKL FOR COORD.                                       
 13                                                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 KY...NONE.                                                                     
 IN...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> ky                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                         
 254 PM EST SUN JAN 7 2007                                                      
 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...                                            
 THE SFC LOW THAT BROUGHT ALL OF THE RAIN TODAY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED            
 OVER THE SERN CWA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM MESONET AND ASOS SITES                
 RANGE FROM ABOUT A HALF INCH TO OVER ONE INCH ACROSS THE SRN CWA.              
 THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAINFALL IS NOW LOCATED EAST OF I-65. CURRENT             
 VIS SATELLITE EVEN SHOWING A SMALL BREAK IN THE STRATUS FROM SDF               
 TO BWG. HOWEVER THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG AS IFR-LIFR CEILINGS ARE               
 LOCATED JUST UPSTREAM.                                                         
 CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE 09Z SREF IS AT LEAST THREE            
 HOURS TOO SLOW WITH THE POPS...AND THE NAM...GFS AND RUC ARE ABOUT             
 SIX HOURS TOO SLOW. SO FEEL CONFIDENT ENDING CAT POPS EARLY THIS               
 EVENING. HOWEVER MORE PRECIP POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT               
 WITH MOISTURE ON BACK SIDE OF SFC LOW (SHOWN FROM LOW                          
 STRATUS/WESTERLY WINDS ABOUT TO ENTER WRN CWA) AIDED BY UPPER                  
 TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER MN DOWN TO NW MO. SOME UPSTREAM                  
 TRACE AMOUNTS UP TO A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS HERE AND THERE ARE                  
 BEING REPORTED...AND CAN SEE THE LIGHT PRECIP FROM PAH/VWX RADARS.             
 THOUGH IT WILL BE LIGHT...PRECIP CHANCES LOOK GOOD OVERNIGHT AND               
 WILL BEGIN TONIGHT`S GRID WITH CHC POPS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE FAR              
 WEST WHERE I WILL HAVE LOW LIKELY POPS...WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND           
 DRIZZLE WORDING. IN ADDITION...WINDS COULD BE GUSTY OVERNIGHT WITH             
 UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE...SO HAVE THIS REFLECTED IN GRIDS AS WELL.                
 ALL SREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE THAT PRECIP WILL EXIT TO OUR                
 NE BY 12Z MONDAY...SO WILL END POPS OVERNIGHT BY SUNRISE. SOME OF              
 THE LIGHT PRECIP TOWARD DAYBREAK COULD BE A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX OR             
 JUST FLURRIES. SO WILL KEEP THIS TREND IN THE GRIDS. NO SNOW                   
 ACCUMULATION GIVEN WET GROUNDS AND TEMPS AOA FREEZING. WITH CLOUDS             
 AND EXPECTED PRECIP AND MIXY CONDITIONS...WILL KEEP THE WARMEST                
 OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE ERN AND SERN CWA. FOR AVIATION                       
 CONCERNS...SFC WINDS WILL LIKELY BE TOO STRONG TO MENTION                      
 LLWS...THOUGH 30-40 KTS POSSIBLE AT 850MB OVERNIGHT. ALSO CEILINGS             
 SHOULD NOT CLIMB OUT OF THE IFR CATEGORY UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER             
 THE WEST AND TOWARD SUNRISE OVER THE EAST.                                     
 FOR MONDAY...SFC LOW AND TROUGH SLIDE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...AND               
 WILL DRY OUT FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS. USED RAW GFS/NAM GRIDS FOR HIGHS              
 TOMORROW AS MOS IS LIKELY OVERDOING THE TEMP REBOUND. HAVE UPPER 30S           
 NE TO LOW 40S SW...WITH EXTREME SWRN CWA PERHAPS REACHING THE MID              
 40S WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE MOST SUNSHINE TOMORROW. CLOUDS AND            
 WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST AS THE            
 NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE CWA.                                                
 AL                                                                             
 .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                  
 PLENTY OF WEATHER GOING ON IN THE LONG TERM THIS FORECAST PERIOD.              
 THE FIRST ITEM TO EXAMINE IS A CLIPPER SYSTEM COMING UP MONDAY NIGHT           
 INTO TUESDAY.                                                                  
 CLIPPER LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND BE POSITIONED OVER WISCONSIN AT           
 THE START OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH           
 INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE CLIPPER WILL HEAD EAST INTO            
 WESTERN LAKE ERIE BY 12Z TUESDAY MORNING AND WILL DRAG ITS COLD                
 FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND THAT SAME TIME. SO...BEST CHANCE OF               
 PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO                  
 TUESDAY MORNING...WITH MOISTURE PULLING OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.                 
 NAM KEEPS US COMPLETELY DRY WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH IS PROBABLY NOT           
 REALISTIC. GFS BRINGS PRECIPITATION INTO THE ENTIRE REGION BUT IS              
 EXHIBITING AN ODD MOISTURE PATTERN AND IS KNOWN FOR PRINTING OUT TOO           
 MUCH QPF. ALSO...THE HEART OF THE SYSTEM WILL STAY RATHER FAR TO OUR           
 NORTH.                                                                         
 PRECIPITATION TYPE IS ANOTHER CHALLENGE WITH THIS SYSTEM. USING A              
 TOP-DOWN APPROACH WITH MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS IT APPEARS WE WILL             
 EXPERIENCE A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT LEAST FOR THE EVENING HOURS MONDAY               
 BEFORE BECOMING MOSTLY SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY                    
 MORNING...AND EVEN THEN MAY BE MIXED WITH RAIN ESPECIALLY SOUTH. AS            
 THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH TEMPERATURES WILL START TO FALL BUT BY           
 THEN MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE LEAVING. SO...THESE FACTORS WILL             
 SERVE TO DECREASE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. BOTTOM LINE...RIGHT NOW OVER THE           
 COURSE OF THE EVENT IT LOOKS LIKE MAYBE A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH             
 IN THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE BORDER...HALF AN INCH FROM                  
 LOUISVILLE WEST AND NORTH...AND HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN THE BLUE            
 GRASS AROUND LEXINGTON...ESPECIALLY ON THE HIGHER HILLTOPS ALONG AND           
 EAST OF INTERSTATE 75 WHERE SOME UPSLOPING AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS CAN           
 COME IN TO PLAY. SO...NOT A BIG SNOWSTORM BY ANY MEANS. GROUND                 
 TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY WARM SO RUSH HOUR TUESDAY                
 MORNING SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANTLY HAMPERED AS THE LIGHT SNOW                 
 QUICKLY MELTS OFF THE WARM PAVEMENT.                                           
 REALLY...THE BIGGER STORY ON TUESDAY MAY SIMPLY BE HOW UNCOMFORTABLE           
 IT WILL FEEL OUTSIDE. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CAUSE           
 TEMPERATURES TO FALL SLOWLY THROUGH THE 30S ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL            
 BE COMBINED WITH WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30 MPH.               
 THIS WILL PRODUCE DAYTIME WINDCHILLS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S.                 
 SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO               
 DROP. THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE NOSING IN AND CLEARING OUR                
 SKIES IS PRIMARILY OF PACIFIC ORIGIN...SO BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES           
 ARE NOT EXPECTED. READINGS SHOULD FALL TO JUST ABOUT NORMAL FOR                
 MID-JANUARY...WHICH IS LOW TO MIDDLE 20S...MAYBE DOWN TO AROUND 20             
 IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS THAT MANAGE TO GET A BIT OF SNOW ON THE                 
 GROUND. WINDS SHOULD STAY UP AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH SO THAT WILL ALSO              
 HELP TO KEEP THE BOTTOM FROM FALLING OUT OF THE TEMPERATURES.                  
 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS            
 WILL THEN KEEP US DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.                                        
 THE NEXT BIG WESTERN UPPER TROF WILL DIG IN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND             
 WILL BUDGE EASTWARD ONLY INTO THE PLAINS BY THE END OF THIS FORECAST           
 PERIOD. A SURFACE LOW SCOOTING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL PULL A              
 COLD FRONT INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS BY THURSDAY NIGHT.            
 WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN DEVELOPING ON THE SOUTHWESTERN           
 PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT AND RIPPLE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE                   
 FRONT...WHICH WILL SERVE TO GREATLY SLOW DOWN THE FRONT/S EASTWARD             
 PROGRESS. AS A RESULT...WE HAVE A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FROM                 
 THURSDAY NIGHT RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AND             
 LIKELY BEYOND AS WELL. LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH             
 TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION RAIN THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SUNDAY.              
 WITH THE FRONT VIRTUALLY STALLED IN OUR AREA FOR SO LONG SOME                  
 APPRECIABLE RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE POSSIBLE. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS               
 LIKE AMOUNTS OF TWO INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE SPAN OF THURSDAY           
 NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH THE GROUND ALREADY SOAKED FROM THE RECENT           
 WET WEATHER THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME MINOR RIVER ISSUES. STAY TUNED.              
 THANKS TO IND...ILN...AND JKL FOR COORD.                                       
 13                                                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 KY...NONE.                                                                     
 IN...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> ky                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                          
 410 PM EST MON JAN 8 2007                                                      
 .SYNOPSIS...                                                                   
 20Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED A MORE               
 TYPICAL WINTER PATTERN WITH RIDGES ALONG THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN            
 ATLANTIC AND TROUGHING IN-BETWEEN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE           
 WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WITHIN THIS TROUGH...THE MAIN FEATURE TO NOTE             
 IS AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA. FAIRLY COLD TEMPERATURES               
 BOTH WITHIN THE TROUGH AND ESPECIALLY WITH THE UPPER LOW. AT                   
 12Z...INL AND CWPL SOUNDINGS REPORTED 850MB TEMPS AROUND -14C.                 
 HOWEVER...UNDER THE LOW...850MB TEMPS WERE CLOSER TO -20C. SINCE               
 LAKE SUPERIOR WATERS ARE AROUND 4C PER LATEST GLERL ANALYSIS...                
 RESULTING IN PLENTY OF OVER WATER INSTABILITY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW               
 SHOWERS CONTINUE. HOWEVER...THE BEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS OCCURRING             
 ON THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO BOTH BETTER MOISTURE AND A            
 LONGER FETCH FOR NW WINDS. IN ADDITION...INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE                 
 HIGHER...WITH RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING AROUND 5000 FT. LATEST RADAR            
 LOOP HAS SHOWN A DECREASE IN RETURNS SINCE THIS MORNING...LIKELY DUE           
 TO THE EFFECTS OF DAYTIME HEATING DISRUPTING ORGANIZATION. ON THE              
 WEST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR...DRIER AIR SEEN ON THE 12Z INL SOUNDING            
 COMBINED WITH LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS              
 HAVE RESULTED IN MINIMAL BANDING. IN ADDITION TO THE LAKE EFFECT               
 SNOW...BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF LAKE                 
 SUPERIOR...DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 993MB LOW                  
 PRESSURE OVER NE ONTARIO AND A 1008MB HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS NEAR            
 DULUTH. WINDS ON EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR HAVE BASICALLY HELD IN THE 25           
 TO 30 KT RANGE ALL DAY. AWAY FROM THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW...NOT MUCH              
 HAS BEEN GOING ON WITH DRY AIR SEEN AT INL MOVING IN. IN FACT...MUCH           
 OF THE WISCONSIN BORDER COUNTIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY. FINALLY...THE              
 LAST ITEM TO NOTE IS A TROUGH OVER ALASKA...WHICH WILL AFFECT THE              
 AREA MID TO LATE THIS WEEK.                                                    
 &&                                                                             
 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUE)...                                               
 UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE TONIGHT...WITH               
 SOME EASTWARD MOVEMENT ON TUESDAY AS THE ALASKAN TROUGH DROPS SOUTH            
 INTO THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE           
 AREA WITH THE TROUGH OVERHEAD TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY ON TUE AS               
 THE NORTHERN MANITOBA UPPER LOW SLIDES INTO EASTERN ONTARIO. BY 12Z            
 TUE...850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO FALL TO -16 TO -18C AND THEN TO -18           
 TO -20C BY 00Z WED. ALTHOUGH THE AIR IS PLENTY COLD ENOUGH FOR  LAKE           
 EFFECT...THERE ARE A FEW PROBLEMS THAT ARE PRESENT FOR SIGNIFICANT             
 SNOW BOTH TONIGHT AND ON TUE. FIRST...INVERSION HEIGHTS ON FORECAST            
 SOUNDINGS BOTH BY THE NAM AND GFS ARE QUITE LOW...AROUND THE PRESENT           
 5000FT...AND ONLY RISE UP TO 7000 FT ON TUE WHEN THE COLDER AIR                
 MOVES IN (GREATEST OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR). SECOND...THE AIR IS            
 OVERALL PRETTY DRY...AS NOTED WITH DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM OF LAKE                  
 SUPERIOR MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS F. GO EVEN FARTHER NW TO UNDER            
 THE UPPER LOW AND DEWPOINTS ARE BELOW ZERO F. THIRD...LOW LEVEL FLOW           
 IS PROGGED TO REMAIN MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF           
 ANY CONVERGENCE AREAS...FAVORING MULTI-PARALLEL BANDS WHICH USUALLY            
 DO NOT PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION. THEREFORE...HAVE               
 TRIMMED BACK AMOUNTS FOR BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...BUT STILL GIVEN           
 THE POSSIBILITY FOR NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL IN UPSLOPE AREAS           
 FOR WNW TO NW WINDS. FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.P....DRY WEATHER WILL             
 PREVAIL SINCE THEY STAY ON THE SUBSIDENCE SIDE OF BOTH THE OVERALL             
 UPPER TROUGH AND THE UPPER LOW.                                                
 DUE TO THE COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AND THAT TEMPERATURES           
 IN NW ONTARIO ARE HAVING A HARD TIME REACHING 10 ABOVE...HAVE                  
 LOWERED BOTH LOWS TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON TUE...CLOSER TO THE LOWEST              
 GUIDANCE (THE MET IN THIS CASE). LUCKILY WINDS STAY UP DURING THIS             
 PERIOD...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT GIVEN THE             
 OVERALL DRY AIRMASS.                                                           
 LASTLY...AS THE COLD ADVECTION COMES IN TOMORROW...MODELS SHOW WINDS           
 PICKING UP AGAIN TO NEAR OR AT GALE FORCE AFTER DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY           
 THIS EVENING. SINCE WINDS HAVE HAD NO PROBLEM REACHING 30 KT WITH              
 GUSTS TO GALE FORCE TODAY...HAVE CONTINUED THE GALE WARNING FOR LAKE           
 SUPERIOR (MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM ROCK OF AGES). BECAUSE OF THE             
 STRONG WINDS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW...HAVE ADDED AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW           
 TO LAKESHORE LOCATIONS FOR TUE.                                                
 .LONG TERM (TUE NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MON)...                                     
 TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...SFC RIDGE WILL SLIDE E TO UPPER MI.               
 THIS WILL BRING AN END TO LINGERING LES FROM W TO E. WOULD EXPECT              
 ACCUMULATIONS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 1-3 INCHES TUE NIGHT UNDER PURE            
 LES REGIME WITH INVERSION RUNNING AROUND 5KFT. GREATEST                        
 ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE OVER PORTIONS OF ALGER/LUCE DUE TO LONGER                
 FETCH AND INDICATIONS OF BETTER CONVERGENCE SETTING UP AS LAND                 
 BREEZES DEVELOP. DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF CLEARING...COULD SEE TEMPS             
 DROP JUST BLO 0F IN THE TYPICAL INLAND COLD SPOTS OVER THE W HALF OF           
 UPPER MI. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS.           
 WED THRU THU...POTENT SHORTWAVE IS TO TRACK ALONG U.S./CANADA BORDER           
 WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVING FROM SRN SASKATCHEWAN WED MORNING TO            
 JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR THU MORNING. LEANED TOWARD THE FASTER GFS              
 SOLUTION PER HPC DISCUSSION. SRLY WINDS WILL CRANK UP AHEAD OF THIS            
 SYSTEM WED NIGHT WITH 40-50KT DEVELOPING AT 850MB. PRES FALL MAX OF            
 8MB/6HR PASSING JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR WED NIGHT WILL ASSIST IN               
 STRENGTHENING SFC WINDS DESPITE IT BEING THE MORE STABLE TIME OF               
 DAY. WINDS SHOULD ESPECIALLY BE GUSTY FOR ERN SECTIONS OF THE FCST             
 AREA WHICH ARE FAVORED IN SRLY FLOW (KISQ/KERY/GRAND                           
 MARAIS/MARQUETTE). GALES LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET ON LAKE SUPERIOR...              
 ESPECIALLY E HALF. AS FOR PCPN...IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT                  
 DEVELOPS WED MORNING THRU THE AFTN...BUT AS USUAL...AN INITIAL DRY             
 AIRMASS WILL NEED TO BE SATURATED FIRST...AND THE STRONGEST PUSH OF            
 ASCENT WILL BE USED TO OVERCOME THE DRY AIR. HAVE OPTED TO TRIM POPS           
 BACK WED TO SLIGHT CHC OVER THE S WHERE SATURATION HAS THE LEAST CHC           
 TO OCCUR. HAVE THEN TRENDED POPS UP FARTHER N...REACHING HIGH CHC              
 OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR. MAY SEE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE                 
 MICHIGAN IN SSW FLOW...BUT AIRMASS WARMS FAIRLY QUICKLY...SO THERE             
 SHOULD ONLY BE A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY. NONETHELESS...DID                
 PAINT HIGHER CHC POPS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE. WITH SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW             
 TRACKING JUST N OF FCST AREA...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW           
 LATER WED NIGHT INTO THU...BUT DID LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC POPS.           
 LES SHOULD GET GOING AGAIN OFF LAKE SUPERIOR IN WNW FLOW THU AFTN AS           
 850MB TEMPS DROP BACK TO -14C LATE IN THE DAY.                                 
 FRI THRU MON...THIS WILL DEFINITELY BE A MORE TYPICAL JANUARY PERIOD           
 AND COULD POTENTIALLY TURN QUITE COLD. OTHER THAN THE COLD...MAIN              
 FOCUS IS ON THE POSSIBILITY OF A WIDESPREAD SYNOPTIC SNOW OVER THE             
 FCST AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. TO PREVENT DEEP FREEZING OF THE                  
 GROUND...SNOW COVER WILL DEFINITELY BE NEEDED IF VERY COLD AIR DOES            
 IN FACT SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR A FEW DAYS EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON                
 FRI...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A POSITIVE TILT TROF FROM           
 SCNTRL CANADA TO THE SW CONUS. WHAT EVENTUALLY HAPPENS TO THE ENERGY           
 IN THE BASE OF THE TROF IS THE BIG QUESTION. GFS RUNS HAVE SHOWED              
 ENERGY HEADING OUT STRONGER/MORE CONSOLIDATED THAN                             
 CANADIAN/UKMET/ECWMF. GFS RESULT WOULD BE A WIDESPREAD SYNOPTIC SNOW           
 WITH SIGNIFICANT LAKE ENHANCEMENT FOR NE OR N WIND FAVORED AREAS AS            
 SFC LOW TRACKS ALONG COLD FRONT FROM TX TO SE LWR MI. TRACK WOULD              
 KEEP HEAVIEST SYNOPTIC SNOW JUST SE OF FCST AREA...BUT STILL THERE             
 WOULD BE DECENT SNOW. 12Z GFS HAS BACKED OFF OF THIS SCENARIO AND              
 NOW HAS A MUCH WEAKER SFC WAVE. 00Z UKMET THRU SAT EVENING KEPT                
 ENERGY HELD BACK OVER THE SW AND ALLOWED HIGH PRES TO BUILD INTO THE           
 UPPER LAKES...BUT 12Z RUN AT LEAST TAKES SOME ENERGY OUT WITH A SFC            
 WAVE TRACKING THRU THE OHIO VALLEY. GLOBAL CANADIAN IS SIMILAR. 00Z            
 ECMWF OFFERED A SHEARED OUT APPROACH TO SHORTWAVE WITH ONLY WEAK SFC           
 DEVELOPMENT ON FRONT. 12Z ECMWF IS A LITTLE BIT STRONGER. BOTH RUNS            
 TAKE SFC LOW ON A SIMILAR TRACK TO GFS. GFS ENSEMBLES SUPPORT SOME             
 SORT OF SFC LOW TRACKING TO NEAR SE LWR MI...BUT NONE OF THE MEMBERS           
 SHOW SFC LOW AS DEEP AS 00Z OR 06Z GFS. BEST COURSE OF ACTION AT               
 THIS POINT IS TO BRING LOW CHC POPS INTO FAR SCNTRL/SE UPPER MI WITH           
 POTENTIAL FOR NRN EDGE OF PCPN SHIELD TO REACH THIS FAR N. WILL                
 OBVIOUSLY BE SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE COMING DAYS AS THERE IS AT            
 LEAST A POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOW...BUT RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS            
 THIS WILL NOT BE A BIG PLAYER IN UPPER MI WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND.            
 OTHERWISE...LES WILL CONTINUE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR SAT THRU MON.                 
 UNLESS THERE IS HELP FROM SYNOPTIC FORCING AT TIMES...LES SHOULD               
 GENERALLY BE LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MDT DURING THIS PERIOD. THERE               
 HAVE BEEN SOME INDICATIONS IN GFS/ECMWF RUNS THE LAST FEW DAYS THAT            
 A SOLID SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE DIVING S FROM           
 THE NPOLE WILL IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT`S VERY UNCERTAIN            
 JUST HOW FAR S THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR WILL PLUNGE...BUT THERE HAVE            
 BEEN HINTS THAT 850MB TEMPS COULD DROP TO AROUND -30C. MORE RECENT             
 RUNS DURING THE LAST DAY HAVE BACKED OFF ON A SHARP SOUTHWARD                  
 PLUNGE. EVEN IF 850MB TEMPS ONLY DROP TO -20 TO -25C...BLO NORMAL              
 TEMPS SHOULD BE THE RULE EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                      
 &&                                                                             
 .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
  GALE WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR.                                                   
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 AJ (SHORT TERM)                                                                
 ROLFSON (LONG TERM)                                                            
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                          
 1128 AM EST MON JAN 8 2007                                                     
 .SYNOPSIS...                                                                   
 16Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND 12Z RAOBS SHOWED TROUGHING COVERING MUCH OF           
 CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WITHIN THE TROUGH...              
 TEMPERATURES ARE RELATIVELY COLD WITH BOTH CWPL AND INL REPORTING              
 -14C 850MB TEMPS AT 12Z. SINCE LAKE SUPERIOR WATERS ARE AROUND 4C              
 PER LATEST GLERL ANALYSIS...RESULTING IN PLENTY OF OVER WATER                  
 INSTABILITY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE. HOWEVER...THE BEST            
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS OCCURRING ON THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR DUE            
 TO BOTH BETTER MOISTURE AND A LONGER FETCH FOR NW WINDS. IN                    
 ADDITION...INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE HIGHER...WITH RUC SOUNDINGS                   
 SUGGESTING AROUND 6000 FT. RADAR IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME DECENT                 
 RETURNS WITH REFLECTIVITIES OF 20-24 DBZ IN BANDS...SUGGESTING UP TO           
 A HALF INCH AN HOUR SNOWFALL RATES. ON THE WEST HALF OF LAKE                   
 SUPERIOR...DRIER AIR SEEN ON THE INL SOUNDING COMBINED WITH LOWER              
 SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS HAVE RESULTED IN                 
 SHORTER AND WEAKER BANDS. IN ADDITION TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW...               
 BREEZY CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR...DUE            
 TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 995MB LOW PRESSURE JUST TO THE            
 NE OF THE LAKE AND A 1008MB HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS NEAR DULUTH.              
 WINDS ON EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR HAVE BASICALLY HELD IN THE 25 TO 30             
 KT RANGE ALL MORNING. AWAY FROM THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW...NOT MUCH HAS            
 BEEN GOING ON WITH DRY AIR SEEN AT INL MOVING IN. IN FACT...MUCH OF            
 THE WISCONSIN BORDER COUNTIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY AT THE PRESENT TIME.            
 &&                                                                             
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES                 
 THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY.                          
 THEREFORE...THE COOL 850MB READINGS WILL PERSIST...KEEPING LAKE                
 EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS GOING. SURFACE LOW JUST TO THE NE OF LAKE                  
 SUPERIOR IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE...HOWEVER THE GRADIENT DOES NOT                
 RELAX ANY...SO THE BREEZY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE. THEREFORE HAVE                
 INCREASED WINDS AND WAVES SOME FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AS FAR AS           
 DETAILS REGARDING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...HIGH RESOLUTION               
 MODELS AND TRENDS IN SURFACE OBS DO SHOW WINDS BACKING MORE WESTERLY           
 OVER UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS WILL LIKELY SET UP A CONVERGENCE ZONE IN             
 AN AREA FROM THE PICTURED ROCKS NATIONAL LAKESHORE EASTWARD TO                 
 PARADISE. THEREFORE IN THIS AREA HAVE BUMPED UP POPS AND SNOW                  
 AMOUNTS. SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW INVERSION HEIGHTS COMING DOWN ABOUT              
 2000 FT BY 21Z...BUT WITH DECENT CONVERGENCE OCCURRING...AN                    
 ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL SHOULD OCCUR. FOR THE WESTERN             
 U.P....LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT BANDING AND DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL              
 KEEP AMOUNTS DOWN TO AROUND AN INCH. LATEST SATELLITE LOOP DOES SHOW           
 THE INDICATION OF A BAND COMING OUT OF DULUTH HARBOR INTO THE                  
 PORCUPINE MOUNTAINS...BUT GIVEN THE DRY AIR AND LOW INVERSIONS...DO            
 NOT THINK THAT THIS BAND WILL PRODUCE MUCH SNOW AS THOSE OUT EAST.             
 ONLY OTHER CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST WAS TO LOWER                           
 TEMPERATURES...GIVEN THE COLD READINGS ALOFT AND THE COOLER READINGS           
 RIGHT NOW.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE SNOWFALL                    
 POTENTIAL FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                               
 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH           
 CENTRAL CANADA EXTENDING INTO THROUGH MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER            
 VALLEY. THIS TROUGH IS BOUNDED BY RIDGES OVER QUEBEC AND WEST COAST            
 OF CANADA. A PRONOUNCED DPVA IS OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN            
 ILLINOIS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDING DOWN THE LEE OF THE WEST COAST             
 RIDGE IS OVER MANITOBA EXTENDING INTO EASTERN DAKOTAS. A DEEPER                
 SHORTWAVE IS DEPICTED OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA ALSO SLIDING DOWN THE LEE           
 OF THE RIDGE. SURFACE ANALYSIS DISPLAYS A LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO            
 WITH TROUGH STRETCHING TO A LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER            
 LOW OVER IS OVER NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WHILE A WEAK RIDGE SEPARATES           
 THE TWO AND IS OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW           
 SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE ONTARIO LOW. SNOW                 
 SHOWERS SWEPT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LAST EVENING IN ASSOCIATION            
 WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND DEEP MOISTURE. HOWEVER...THIS                    
 INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE HAS MOVED INTO THE EASTERN U.P. AN 850MB              
 THERMAL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WEST END OF LAKE SUPERIOR IS                    
 DEVELOPING A DELTA-T OF 17C WHICH IS DEVELOPING SOME LAKE EFFECT               
 SNOWS OVER THE WEST LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE LES PRONE AREAS WITH A                
 WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW. EVENING SOUNDING INDICATE AN INVERSION AROUND             
 850MB. SOUNDING SHOWING A SATURATED LAYER BETWEEN 900-850MB AND                
 DRIER BELOW THIS LAYER.                                                        
 NAM/GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST               
 PERIOD THEN FOLLOWED A UKMET/GFS BLEND AS SUGGESTED BY HPC. THE                
 SHORTWAVE OVER WISCONSIN WILL WEAKEN AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA             
 TODAY. THE DEEP MOISTURE AREA WILL LIKEWISE SWEEP INTO EASTERN                 
 ONTARIO...WHILE DRY AIR ACCOMPANYING THE RIDGE WILL PRESS INTO THE             
 WEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE -13C 850MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL             
 SHIFT INTO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE THE BOUNDARY LEVEL WINDS                
 REMAINS OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE IN                 
 ASSOCIATION WITH THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHOULD KEEP             
 LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. SINCE THE SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRYNESS AT THE LOW             
 LEVEL...DO NOT EXPECT HEAVY SNOWS. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND                   
 STRONGEST OMEGA WILL REMAIN ALONG THE NORTHWEST SHORE OF LAKE                  
 SUPERIOR. HOWEVER...LES SNOW BANDS WILL LIKELY SET UP AND CONTINUE             
 OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND WESTWARD...AND OVER ALGER AND LUCE             
 COUNTIES. THE FETCH LENGTH OVER THE WEST LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE LOW             
 LEVEL DRYNESS WILL LIMIT LES ACCUMULATION OF THE WESTERN COUNTIES              
 TODAY.                                                                         
 THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL SWEEP INTO EASTERN ONTARIO           
 TONIGHT WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE DOWN           
 THE LEE OF THE WEST COAST RIDGE AND SWING INTO MINNESOTA. THE                  
 SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO AND CENTRAL               
 QUEBEC. SURFACE PROJECTION INDICATES THAT THE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT            
 OF THE NORTHWEST. A DEEPER THERMAL TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT OVER WESTERN            
 LAKE SUPERIOR...DEVELOPING A DELTA-T OF AROUND 20C. THE LOW                    
 INVERSION WILL BE AROUND 850MB SO THERE WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE LOW              
 LEVELS. THE LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE THE FETCH LENGTH AND AVAILABLE            
 LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE SURFACE WINDS WILL PICK UP TO AROUND 30                
 KNOTS OVER THE EASTERN LAKE AND 25 KNOTS OVER WEST DURING THE DAY              
 WHICH WILL DIMINISH EFFECTIVE FETCH LENGTH. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS              
 WILL BE AROUND 5F OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND DEW POINTS OVER THE DAKOTAS           
 ARE STILL IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. A SATURATED LAYER ALOFT WILL BE                
 BETWEEN 900MB AND 850MB. LES LIKELY...HOWEVER...CONDITIONS LOOKS               
 MARGINAL FOR POTENTIAL LES ADVISORY CRITERIA SO WILL HOLD OFF ON A             
 DECISION FOR AN ADVISORY FOR NOW.                                              
 AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH EDGES EASTWARD...THE WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER                
 MINNESOTA WILL SHIFT INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. A BAND OF              
 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF              
 THE SHORTWAVE. A POOL OF COLD AIR WILL SETTLE INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO.            
 THE 850MB TEMPERATURE WILL DIP TO -23C. OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THE                 
 LAKE-850MB DELTA-T WILL INCREASE TO 23C. THE 850MB INVERSION WILL              
 LIFT TO AROUND 800MB. THE AIR MASS WILL BE SATURATED FROM 900MB TO             
 THE BASE OF THE INVERSION. WINDS WILL REMAIN 25-30KTS OVER THE BIG             
 LAKE. DEEP MOISTURE WILL INCREASE BY LATE TUESDAY. THUS A                      
 NEED FOR AN ADVISORY LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS.                     
 THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE               
 RIDGE WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY             
 NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE                
 NORTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE LAKE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.            
 THUS I WILL EXTEND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW INTO WEDNESDAY                 
 MORNING EARLY EAST. DRY AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT            
 AND WEDNESDAY AND WINDS WILL BACK SOUTHWEST. THUS WILL END SNOWS               
 OVER THE AREA.                                                                 
 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY              
 EVENING AND TO THE EAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A NEGATIVELY TILTED           
 LOW WILL SWEEP FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO ON                  
 THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH            
 THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY WHICH COULD GENERATE MORE SNOW                   
 SHOWERS.                                                                       
 &&                                                                             
 .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...GALE WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR.                 
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 AJ (UPDATE)                                                                    
 DLG (PREV DISCUSSION)                                                          
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                          
 420 AM EST MON JAN 8 2007                                                      
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE SNOWFALL                    
 POTENTIAL FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                               
 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH           
 CENTRAL CANADA EXTENDING INTO THROUGH MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER            
 VALLEY. THIS TROUGH IS BOUNDED BY RIDGES OVER QUEBEC AND WEST COAST            
 OF CANADA. A PRONOUNCED DPVA IS OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN            
 ILLINOIS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDING DOWN THE LEE OF THE WEST COAST             
 RIDGE IS OVER MANITOBA EXTENDING INTO EASTERN DAKOTAS. A DEEPER                
 SHORTWAVE IS DEPICTED OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA ALSO SLIDING DOWN THE LEE           
 OF THE RIDGE. SURFACE ANALYSIS DISPLAYS A LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO            
 WITH TROUGH STRETCHING TO A LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER            
 LOW OVER IS OVER NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WHILE A WEAK RIDGE SEPARATES           
 THE TWO AND IS OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW           
 SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE ONTARIO LOW. SNOW                 
 SHOWERS SWEPT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LAST EVENING IN ASSOCIATION            
 WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND DEEP MOISTURE. HOWEVER...THIS                    
 INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE HAS MOVED INTO THE EASTERN U.P. AN 850MB              
 THERMAL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WEST END OF LAKE SUPERIOR IS                    
 DEVELOPING A DELTA-T OF 17C WHICH IS DEVELOPING SOME LAKE EFFECT               
 SNOWS OVER THE WEST LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE LES PRONE AREAS WITH A                
 WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW. EVENING SOUNDING INDICATE AN INVERSION AROUND             
 850MB. SOUNDING SHOWING A SATURATED LAYER BETWEEN 900-850MB AND                
 DRIER BELOW THIS LAYER.                                                        
 NAM/GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST               
 PERIOD THEN FOLLOWED A UKMET/GFS BLEND AS SUGGESTED BY HPC. THE                
 SHORTWAVE OVER WISCONSIN WILL WEAKEN AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA             
 TODAY. THE DEEP MOISTURE AREA WILL LIKEWISE SWEEP INTO EASTERN                 
 ONTARIO...WHILE DRY AIR ACCOMPANYING THE RIDGE WILL PRESS INTO THE             
 WEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE -13C 850MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL             
 SHIFT INTO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE THE BOUNDARY LEVEL WINDS                
 REMAINS OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE IN                 
 ASSOCIATION WITH THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHOULD KEEP             
 LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. SINCE THE SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRYNESS AT THE LOW             
 LEVEL...DO NOT EXPECT HEAVY SNOWS. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND                   
 STRONGEST OMEGA WILL REMAIN ALONG THE NORTHWEST SHORE OF LAKE                  
 SUPERIOR. HOWEVER...LES SNOW BANDS WILL LIKELY SET UP AND CONTINUE             
 OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND WESTWARD...AND OVER ALGER AND LUCE             
 COUNTIES. THE FETCH LENGTH OVER THE WEST LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE LOW             
 LEVEL DRYNESS WILL LIMIT LES ACCUMULATION OF THE WESTERN COUNTIES              
 TODAY.                                                                         
 THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL SWEEP INTO EASTERN ONTARIO           
 TONIGHT WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE DOWN           
 THE LEE OF THE WEST COAST RIDGE AND SWING INTO MINNESOTA. THE                  
 SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO AND CENTRAL               
 QUEBEC. SURFACE PROJECTION INDICATES THAT THE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT            
 OF THE NORTHWEST. A DEEPER THERMAL TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT OVER WESTERN            
 LAKE SUPERIOR...DEVELOPING A DELTA-T OF AROUND 20C. THE LOW                    
 INVERSION WILL BE AROUND 850MB SO THERE WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE LOW              
 LEVELS. THE LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE THE FETCH LENGTH AND AVAILABLE            
 LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE SURFACE WINDS WILL PICK UP TO AROUND 30                
 KNOTS OVER THE EASTERN LAKE AND 25 KNOTS OVER WEST DURING THE DAY              
 WHICH WILL DIMINISH EFFECTIVE FETCH LENGTH. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS              
 WILL BE AROUND 5F OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND DEW POINTS OVER THE DAKOTAS           
 ARE STILL IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. A SATURATED LAYER ALOFT WILL BE                
 BETWEEN 900MB AND 850MB. LES LIKELY...HOWEVER...CONDITIONS LOOKS               
 MARGINAL FOR POTENTIAL LES ADVISORY CRITERIA SO WILL HOLD OFF ON A             
 DECISION FOR AN ADVISORY FOR NOW.                                              
 AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH EDGES EASTWARD...THE WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER                
 MINNESOTA WILL SHIFT INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. A BAND OF              
 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF              
 THE SHORTWAVE. A POOL OF COLD AIR WILL SETTLE INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO.            
 THE 850MB TEMPERATURE WILL DIP TO -23C. OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THE                 
 LAKE-850MB DELTA-T WILL INCREASE TO 23C. THE 850MB INVERSION WILL              
 LIFT TO AROUND 800MB. THE AIR MASS WILL BE SATURATED FROM 900MB TO             
 THE BASE OF THE INVERSION. WINDS WILL REMAIN 25-30KTS OVER THE BIG             
 LAKE. DEEP MOISTURE WILL INCREASE BY LATE TUESDAY. THUS A                      
 NEED FOR AN ADVISORY LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS.                     
 THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE               
 RIDGE WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY             
 NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE                
 NORTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE LAKE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.            
 THUS I WILL EXTEND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW INTO WEDNESDAY                 
 MORNING EARLY EAST. DRY AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT            
 AND WEDNESDAY AND WINDS WILL BACK SOUTHWEST. THUS WILL END SNOWS               
 OVER THE AREA.                                                                 
 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY              
 EVENING AND TO THE EAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A NEGATIVELY TILTED           
 LOW WILL SWEEP FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO ON                  
 THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH            
 THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY WHICH COULD GENERATE MORE SNOW                   
 SHOWERS.                                                                       
 &&                                                                             
 .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                       
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 DLG                                                                            
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                          
 356 PM EST SUN JAN 7 2007                                                      
 .SYNOPSIS...                                                                   
 20Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED AN UPPER             
 LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE              
 CENTRAL PLAINS...SITUATED BETWEEN RIDGES OVER THE EAST PACIFIC AND             
 EASTERN U.S.. WITHIN THE TROUGH...SHRTWVS TO NOTE WERE OVER SE                 
 MINNESOTA AND ALONG THE MINNESOTA/DAKOTAS BORDER. DPVA AHEAD OF BOTH           
 OF THESE SHRTWVS...COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE SEEN ON THE 12Z            
 INL SOUNDING AND A 17Z TAMDAR SOUNDING FROM BRAINERD...HAS HELPED              
 SUPPORT AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF DULUTHS FORECAST AREA.            
 SOME OF THIS LIGHT SNOW HAS ALREADY SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN U.P. PER           
 LOWER VISIBILITIES SEEN AT IWD AND CMX. DRIER AIR TO THE EAST AS               
 SEEN ON THE 16Z SAWYER TAMDAR SOUNDING...COMBINED WITH SUNSHINE                
 FILTERED THROUGH HIGH CLOUDS AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE ALLOWED           
 TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 30S...WITH EVEN A FEW LOW 40S             
 READINGS IN DOWNSLOPE AREAS. LOOKING AHEAD INTO THE FORECAST...IT              
 WILL LIKELY BE A WHILE BEFORE WE SEE THESE READINGS AGAIN. AT THE              
 SURFACE....1000MB LOW PRESSURE WAS SITUATED NEAR PICKLE LAKE WITH A            
 COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO NEAR DUBUQUE. 850MB TEMPS FALL               
 NEARLY 5C BEHIND THIS FRONT...FROM THE PRESENT -4C READINGS TO                 
 AROUND -9C AS SEEN ON THE BRAINERD SOUNDING. TO THE WEST OF THIS               
 COOLER AIR...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR (NOTED BY            
 THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 0.19 INCHES ON THE           
 12Z BIS SOUNDING) WAS LOCATED OVER THE PLAINS. FARTHER TO THE                  
 WEST...A SHRTWV CAN BE SEEN DROPPING THROUGH ALBERTA...WITH AN                 
 ASSOCIATED 995MB LOW PRESSURE SITUATED OVER WEST CENTRAL ALBERTA.              
 &&                                                                             
 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...                                            
 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER MINNESOTA WILL CROSS MOST OF UPPER MICHIGAN            
 TONIGHT...ALONG WITH THE TWO SHRTWVS. DPVA AHEAD OF THESE                      
 SHRTWVS...COMBINED WITH ADVECTION OF MOISTURE FROM NORTHERN                    
 MINNESOTA SHOULD ALLOW FOR A TRANSLATION EASTWARD OF THE SNOW OVER             
 DULUTHS AREA ACROSS THE CWA. THE 12Z GFS...WHICH HAS HAD AN                    
 EXCELLENT HANDLE ON THE SNOW SO FAR ALSO PRESENTS THIS IDEA...AND              
 THEREFORE HAVE FOLLOWED MOST OF IT FOR THE FORECAST. THEREFORE...              
 HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY AS THE SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL MOVES ACROSS.           
 IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFS SHOWS AN INCREASE OF 700MB OMEGA               
 OVER THE CENTRAL U.P. AT 00Z THIS EVENING...WHICH RESULTS IN THE               
 MODEL PRODUCING AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF. BECAUSE OF                   
 THIS...HAVE TRENDED QPF AMOUNTS UPWARDS...BUT DID NOT GO AS HIGH               
 SINCE THE GFS IS THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING THIS FEATURE. SINCE THIS IS            
 A SYNOPTIC FEATURE...HAVE WENT WITH SNOW TO WATER RATIOS NEAR 10 TO            
 1...WHICH RESULTS UP TO AN INCH OF SNOWFALL.                                   
 AFTER THE SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL PASSES...COLDER 850MB TEMPS SEEN                   
 UPSTREAM MOVE IN (SHOWN TO COOL TO -10 TO -12C). WITH LAKE                     
 TEMPERATURES AROUND 4C...ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRESENT TO               
 GENERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE             
 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...ALONG WITH ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR IN OVER THE             
 PLAINS MAY HINDER THE LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION.                    
 MODELS...EVEN HIGHER RESOLUTION RUNS...REFLECT THIS BY SHOWING VERY            
 LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF. HAVE STILL KEPT AMOUNTS ON THE HIGH END OF           
 THE MODELS FOR BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY SINCE THERE              
 ARE HINTS OF LAND BREEZES DEVELOPING TONIGHT THAT MAY HELP TO FOCUS            
 AREAS OF CONVERGENCE. NONETHELESS...QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS WERE NEARLY           
 CUT IN HALF FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST GIVEN THE DRIER...LOWER                 
 INVERSION LOOK TO SOUNDINGS. GIVEN WNW FLOW...THE LAKE EFFECT SHOULD           
 MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE WESTERN U.P. AND LOCATIONS EAST OF                   
 MARQUETTE. AWAY FROM THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD              
 PREVAIL AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS ATTEMPTS            
 TO BUILD INTO THE CWA ON MONDAY.                                               
 .LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)...                               
 GFS SHOWING THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS TO THE EAST 00Z TUE WITH RIDGING            
 IN THE WEST AND THIS RIDGING POKES INTO THE CWA ON WED. GFS SHOWS              
 SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ON I280K-I290K SURFACES 12Z WED              
 WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND MOISTURE IS QUITE                
 DEEP. HAVE BEEN WATCHING THIS THE PAST FEW DAYS AND HAVE BEEN                  
 WONDERING IF POPS SHOULD BE IN FOR WED. WILL PUT SOME LOW CHANCE               
 POPS IN AS THE WARM FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. GFS IS SHOWING               
 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVING ACROSS FOR WED. LAKE MICHIGAN           
 LAKE EFFECT ALSO ENTERS INTO THE PICTURE FOR WED AFTERNOON WITH LAKE           
 MICHIGAN TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 5C AND GFS 850 MB TEMPERATURES            
 -8C TO -10C WHICH IS ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT ANYWAY WITH SOUTH             
 WINDS. WILL GO HIGH CHANCE POPS ALONG THE BAY OF GREEN BAY AND LAKE            
 MICHIGAN SHORELINES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.                                       
 LAKE EFFECT WILL BE THE PROBLEM FOR THIS FORECAST. GFS BUFKIT                  
 SOUNDINGS FOR KIWD...KCMX AND KMQT SHOW INVERSION HEIGHTS OF                   
 3000-4000 FEET MON NIGHT AND TUE WHILE KERY BUFKIT SOUNDING HAS                
 INVERSION HEIGHT 5000 FEET MON NIGHT AND TUE. ALL SOUNDINGS                    
 THOUGH HAVE AN INVERTED-V LOOK AT THE LOW LEVELS WHICH IS SHOWING              
 SOME DRY AIR WHICH COULD BE A PROBLEM. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR              
 LAKE EFFECT WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES OFF THE GFS DOWN TO -14C TO               
 -16C WHICH COMBINED WITH THE LAKE SUPERIOR TEMPERATURE OF 3C TO                
 4C...IS ENOUGH LAKE-850 MB DELTA-T FOR LAKE EFFECT. THINKING RIGHT             
 NOW IS THAT THIS EVENT WILL MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA TO THE WEST AND             
 EAST OF MARQUETTE IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST FAVORED LAKE EFFECT SNOW           
 BELT AREAS AND WILL NOT PUT UP ANY WATCHES AT THIS TIME AS DRY AIR             
 IN LOW LEVELS IS STILL TROUBLING. WHEN THE INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS HAVE           
 HAPPENED IN THE PAST...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE LESS AND SNOWFALL                  
 RATIONS ALSO TEND TO BE LESS. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE           
 HWO. THINKING THAT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE UP TO 9 INCHES FOR                 
 MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY FOR NOW AND THIS WOULD BE SPREAD OUT              
 THROUGH 24 HOURS.                                                              
 FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT CLOSE TO ADJMVR WHICH THEY SEEMED                      
 REASONABLE. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING               
 FORECAST.                                                                      
 IN THE EXTENDED...GFS...ECMWF SHOW THE 500 MB PATTERN CONSISTS OF A            
 TROUGH IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND RIDGING OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE U.S.           
 00Z THU. TROUGHING PUSHES FURTHER EAST 00Z FRI INTO THE NORTHERN               
 PLAINS WITH CWA ON PERIPHERY OF RIDGE. TROUGHING STILL REMAINS OFF             
 TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST FOR 00Z SAT AND THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO              
 STAY TO THE WEST THROUGH SUN. LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE A LAKE EFFECT            
 EXTENDED FORECAST TO DEAL WITH WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS DURING            
 THE PERIOD AND COLDER AIR COMING ACROSS THE LAKE. THIS OCCURS ALMOST           
 EVERY PERIOD...SO WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS EXCEPT OVER THE FAR SOUTH           
 WHERE IT SHOULD BE DRY EXCEPT FOR THU AND THU NIGHT WITH A CLIPPER             
 TYPE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH. FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT CLOSE TO ADJENS            
 AND ADJMXR FOR TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE NOT AS COLD AS PREVIOUSLY                
 THOUGHT AND EXTENDED IS NOT LOOKING AS COLD AS IT WAS YESTERDAY.               
 TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL THOUGH FOR THE MOST PART.            
 &&                                                                             
 .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                       
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 AJ (SHORT TERM)                                                                
 MICHELS (LONG TERM)                                                            
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                          
 655 PM CST MON JAN 8 2007                                                      
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 LATEST LOOK AT RUC AND 18Z RUNS...ALONG WITH WHAT IS HAPPENING                 
 UPSTREAM IS SHOWING THAT STRONGEST WINDS IN THE ADVISORY WILL BE               
 LATE IN THE EVENING THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS. AT BEST LOOKING TO            
 BE ONLY AN HOUR OR TWO OF ADVISORY CRITERIA OF WINDS AT ANY GIVEN              
 POINT AS LOW LEVELS FEEL THE EFFECTS OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX           
 MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WILL SCALE BACK THE START AND END TIME OF            
 THE ADVISORY TO FOCUS IT ON THE MAIN TIME OF CONCERN...AND ALSO TAKE           
 OUT NORTHEAST KANSAS...AS IT NOW APPEARS THE BETTER GRADIENT WILL BE           
 OVER MISSOURI. EXPECT NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI ALSO TO GET PRETTY                
 GUSTY...BUT REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.  WILL HANDLE WITH             
 SHORT TERM FORECASTS AS THAT DEVELOPS.                                         
 ALSO WATCHING A FEW SPRINKLES MOVING SOUTHEAST ON OMAHA RADAR.                 
 SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOISTURE IS PRETTY SHALLOW SO AT THIS POINT...NOT           
 PLANNING ON ADDING AS ANY RAIN TO NORTHWEST MISSOURI SINCE WOULD               
 EXPECT IT TO BE VERY LOCALIZED AND LIGHT. PLAN ON HANDLING WITH                
 SHORT TERM FORECASTS IF SPRINKLES DO POP UP. A LITTLE MORE CONCERNED           
 WITH MY NORTHEAST AREAS...WHERE A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE EXISTS                
 OVERNIGHT. SOUNDINGS SHOW BY THAT TIME MOISTURE IS IN PLACE IN THE             
 900 TO 800 MB LEVELS...THE TEMPERATURES WOULD SUPPORT SNOW. WITH               
 SUCH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFT...NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATING                   
 SNOW...SO WILL CALL IT FLURRIES AT THIS POINT.                                 
 PC                                                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 /351 PM CST MON JAN 8 2007/                                                    
 FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH THE NEXT 60 HOURS WITH THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN           
 BEING THE END OF THE WEEK STORM SYSTEM.                                        
 BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS NOT                
 QUITE UP TO ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER...LET THE ADVISORY RIDE UNTIL           
 12Z AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AGAIN TONIGHT AS NEAR                
 1039MB SFC RIDGE NOSES INTO THE PLAINS ON THE HEALS OF THE EXITING             
 NE US/SE CANADA SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...LOOKING FOR 45KT CORE OF H925            
 TO AFFECT THE AREA NEAR MIDNIGHT. WHILE A WEAK INVERSION IS EXPECTED           
 TO SET UP TONIGHT...DECENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER MAY BE ENOUGH TO                  
 OVERCOME THIS TO ALLOW SOME OF THE 45KT CORE TO DESCEND. WHILE NOT             
 OVERLY CONFIDENT THE ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE MET...FOUND IT                  
 PRUDENT TO LET IT GO FOR CONTINUITY SAKE. NONETHELESS...BREEZY                 
 CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN ADDITION...AS                 
 ELONGATED VORTICITY CORE SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH BRIEFLY            
 COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS...MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES           
 MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER...APPEARS MORE LIKELY              
 AREA FOR ANY PRECIP WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE CWA...IN CLOSER                 
 PROXIMITY TO THE VORT MAXIMA. THEREFORE...LEFT ONLY SILENT POPS IN             
 FOR NOW.                                                                       
 OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO RELAX BY LATE MORNING AND INTO THE          
 EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC RIDGE SETTLES INTO           
 THE PLAINS. OVERALL PLEASANT DAY EXPECTED TOMORROW AS STRONG                   
 NORTHWEST FLOW SHIFTS EASTWARD ALLOWING UPPER RIDGING TO OVERSPREAD            
 THE AREA. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL AS CAA CONTINUES THROUGH THE          
 DAY...ALBEIT STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.                                 
 SFC RIDGE AXIS SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LEE              
 SIDE TROUGHING COMMENCES IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHTS FALLS SPREADING INTO           
 THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL US. EXPECTING ANOTHER BREEZY DAY AS GFS PROGS          
 60KT LLJ TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND                 
 SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE...SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY            
 NEED TO BE ADDRESSED AS DECENT MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY                     
 CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP. FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE SOMEWHAT HAMPERED           
 BY VIGOROUS MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH DEEPEST MOISTURE IS            
 NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA UNTIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.                      
 NEVERTHELESS...HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED                 
 ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA.                     
 DEROCHE                                                                        
 GFS SOLUTION HAS NOT DEVIATED MUCH OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. IT              
 CONTINUES TO SHOW THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER              
 THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH                     
 STRETCHING NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. NAM IS MUCH FARTHER               
 NORTH WITH THE ECMWF BETWEEN THE TWO. HAVE BASICALLY GONE WITH A               
 BLEND WHICH IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE ECMWF.                                      
 MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND            
 FRIDAY. HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY. AS THE UPPER               
 LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO MORE                    
 WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER SHOWERS. AT THIS TIME...SURFACE AND MID LEVEL           
 TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN.                               
 COLD AIR STARTS TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT              
 INTO FRIDAY. DEEP MOISTURE IS STILL PRESENT. MODEL FORECASTS                   
 CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG INDICATION OF A FREEZING RAIN SCENARIO FOR           
 FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT MAINLY NORTH OF A           
 LINE FROM PAOLA KANSAS TO MACON MISSOURI.                                      
 WHILE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT...IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO            
 DETERMINE THE ACTUAL SCENARIO AND WHERE THE FREEZING LINE WILL SET             
 UP. THINK CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL SEE RAIN THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE                
 EVENT. WHILE LOCATIONS NORTH OF THERE WILL SEE FREEZING RAIN THROUGH           
 MUCH OF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. DO THINK THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR               
 SNOW ACROSS MAINLY FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY             
 AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE AT ITS CLOSEST AND THE COLD AIR              
 WILL BE DEEPER. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH MOVING THE SYSTEM EAST OF THE           
 FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT.                                                 
 NRR                                                                            
 /ISSUED 420 AM CST MON JAN 8 2007/                                             
 PRIMARY CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE WITH THE STRONG                 
 NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS            
 AND NOSING INTO THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF MO. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT           
 FORMING ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO CHANNELED VORTICITY PATTERN           
 EMBEDDED WITHIN RIBBON OF VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT. SEVERAL FAST                
 MOVING IMPULSES WILL ZIP THROUGH THE AREA WITH BOUTS OF MID/HIGH               
 LEVEL CLOUD COVER STREAKING THROUGH THE CWA TODAY. SOME CONCERN WE             
 MAY NOT REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE                      
 CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER IMPEDING THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM            
 FROM THE HIGHER WINDS ALOFT AND THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION NOT                    
 DISSIPATING UNTIL MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DO NOT THINK IT PRUDENT TO          
 DROP AS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THE PROSPECTS INCREASE FOR            
 THE WINDS TO REMAIN QUITE STRONG DUE TO STRONG ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE            
 RISE CENTER SURGING THROUGH IA AND INTO MO. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE             
 EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT.                                
 OTHERWISE...ATTENTION WILL TURN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS            
 MODELS STILL PROG A WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE                  
 SOUTHWESTERN U.S. PRONOUNCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM AT MID AND HIGH           
 LEVELS COUPLED WITH AN INTRUSION OF SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR SPREADING               
 ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY FORMS THE            
 RECIPE FOR WINTERY WEATHER AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS THREAT             
 WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL. AS THIS UPPER SYSTEM                
 DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WILL                
 OCCUR ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND SPREAD EASTWARD. INCREASING           
 SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL IN TURN TAP INTO THE MOISTURE LADEN AIR OF THE            
 GULF OF MEXICO AND ADVECT QUICKLY NORTHWARD INTO MO. INITIALLY                 
 WIDESPREAD WARM AIR ADVECTION COUPLED WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE             
 WILL RESULT IN EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS SPREADING INTO MO WEDNESDAY                
 NIGHT. BY THURSDAY PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE           
 OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A COLD FRONT MARKING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE           
 ARCTIC AIR WILL NOSE INTO NORTHWEST MO THURSDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY               
 SHIFT SOUTHEAST WITH BELOW FREEZING AIR EVENTUALLY OVERSPREADING THE           
 ENTIRE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDING PROFILES SUPPORT             
 FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE INITIALLY BEFORE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE            
 ALOFT MOVES IN SOMETIME ON SATURDAY TO SUPPORT A CHANGE OVER TO                
 SNOW. EXPECT TO SEE A WIDE VARIETY OF WINTRY WEATHER TYPES WITH THIS           
 SYSTEM. PRIMARY QUESTIONS REMAIN TIMING OF ONSET OF WINTRY WEATHER.            
 LAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN SLOWING DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE            
 WINTER WEATHER SO STILL TOO EARLY TO ISSUE A WATCH.                            
 MJ                                                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 MO...WIND ADVISORY 9 PM UNTIL 5 AM TUESDAY FOR MOZ001>005-011-012.             
 KS...NONE.                                                                     
 $$                                                                             
</pre> mo                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                             
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE                                           
 1210 PM CST SUN JAN 7 2007                                                     
 .UPDATE...EXPANDED WIND ADVISORY TO THE REST OF THE CWFA. STILL                
 BORDERLINE OR LOW END BUT ESSENTIALLY LITTLE DIFFERENCE FROM                   
 CENTRAL CWFA WHERE WINDS HAVE BEEN AT ADVISORY...AND THE EAST. RUC             
 SUGGESTS HIGHER WIND POTENTIAL EAST OF 281 THIS AFTERNOON...WITH               
 AREAS TO THE WEST SEEING FALLING PRESSURES AND STRUGGLING TO MIX               
 WITH SNOW COVER OR SNOW COVER NEARBY. MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALSO                  
 SETTLING IN FROM THE WEST.                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 AM CST SUN JAN 7 2007/                         
 DISCUSSION...MAIN PROBLEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE                 
 WINDS.  EARLY MORNING 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PARTLY             
 TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES STRETCHING ACROSS MUCH OF NEBRASKA INTO                 
 WESTERN KANSAS.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING INDICATE THE                
 COLDEST TEMPERATURES AGAIN RESIDE IN THE SNOWPACK OF WESTERN                   
 NEBRASKA...WHILE SUSTAINED WINDS OF CLOSE TO 30 MPH ARE BEING                  
 REPORTED IN PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.                                
 00Z NAM/GFS ARE IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT TODAY.  A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM            
 WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGING COLDER AIR            
 AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.  THE MAIN ISSUE TODAY IS WHETHER OR NOT             
 WIND SPEEDS WILL REACH ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.               
 LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER STEEP BY 15Z THIS MORNING...AND               
 ONLY GET STEEPER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.  H85 WINDS ARE FORECAST             
 TO BE IN THE 40-45KT RANGE...HOWEVER THE 03Z RUC SUGGESTS EVEN                 
 STRONGER WINDS OF NEAR 50 KTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST PORTION            
 OF THE FORECAST AREA.  AFTER MUCH DEBATE...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A             
 WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EVEN THOUGH           
 IT GENERALLY APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL EVENT...ESPECIALLY IF THERE              
 ARE TOO MANY CLOUDS TO LIMIT MIXING.  MITIGATING FACTOR IS THE                 
 ONGOING POWER RESTORATION EFFORTS AND WOULD RATHER ERR ON THE SIDE             
 OF CAUTION AND GIVE THE HEIGHTENED SENSE OF AWARENESS THAT COMES               
 WITH AN ADVISORY.  WILL KEEP THE FAR SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE ADVISORY             
 SINCE THAT AREA DID NOT RECEIVE MUCH ICE/DAMAGE AND WINDS LOOK EVEN            
 MORE MARGINAL IN THAT AREA WITH H85 WINDS WEAKENING A BIT BY THE               
 TIME THE STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES REACH THAT LOCATION.                    
 MONDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A VERY WINDY DAY WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES                
 DEVELOPING BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA.             
 DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW SHOULD HELP THE MIXING...AND BUFKIT                   
 MOMENTUM TRANSFER SHOWS THE POTENTIAL TO MIX WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60             
 KTS TO THE SURFACE.  CURRENTLY WE HAVE GOT A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR ALL           
 BUT THE FAR SOUTHERN 3 COUNTIES OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...AND THINK            
 THAT IS STILL APPROPRIATE.  AT THE MINIMUM THIS SHOULD BE A HIGH END           
 ADVISORY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR               
 EVEN STRONGER WINDS IF THE MIXING IS DEEP ENOUGH.                              
 THE NEXT CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THE              
 END OF THE WORK WEEK.  A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ISENTROPIC LIFT (285K)            
 IS STILL BEING SHOWN BY THE 00Z GFS AS A TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE                
 WESTERN UNITED STATES.  COLD AIR APPEARS TO BE DEEP ENOUGH WITH THIS           
 EVENT THAT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD RECEIVE SNOW.  CURRENT             
 FORECAST GRIDS HAVE GOT THIS COVERED...HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE                    
 SURPRISED TO SEE AN INCREASE IN POPS IF MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT               
 WITH THIS SYSTEM.                                                              
 .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ039>041-               
      046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.                                          
      HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR          
      NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.                               
 KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ005>007-               
      017>019.                                                                  
      HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR          
      KSZ005>007.                                                               
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> ne                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE                                           
 254 AM CST SUN JAN 7 2007                                                      
 .DISCUSSION...MAIN PROBLEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE                
 WINDS.  EARLY MORNING 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PARTLY             
 TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES STRETCHING ACROSS MUCH OF NEBRASKA INTO                 
 WESTERN KANSAS.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING INDICATE THE                
 COLDEST TEMPERATURES AGAIN RESIDE IN THE SNOWPACK OF WESTERN                   
 NEBRASKA...WHILE SUSTAINED WINDS OF CLOSE TO 30 MPH ARE BEING                  
 REPORTED IN PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.                                
 00Z NAM/GFS ARE IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT TODAY.  A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM            
 WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGING COLDER AIR            
 AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.  THE MAIN ISSUE TODAY IS WHETHER OR NOT             
 WIND SPEEDS WILL REACH ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.               
 LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER STEEP BY 15Z THIS MORNING...AND               
 ONLY GET STEEPER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.  H85 WINDS ARE FORECAST             
 TO BE IN THE 40-45KT RANGE...HOWEVER THE 03Z RUC SUGGESTS EVEN                 
 STRONGER WINDS OF NEAR 50 KTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST PORTION            
 OF THE FORECAST AREA.  AFTER MUCH DEBATE...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A             
 WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EVEN THOUGH           
 IT GENERALLY APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL EVENT...ESPECIALLY IF THERE              
 ARE TOO MANY CLOUDS TO LIMIT MIXING.  MITIGATING FACTOR IS THE                 
 ONGOING POWER RESTORATION EFFORTS AND WOULD RATHER ERR ON THE SIDE             
 OF CAUTION AND GIVE THE HEIGHTENED SENSE OF AWARENESS THAT COMES               
 WITH AN ADVISORY.  WILL KEEP THE FAR SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE ADVISORY             
 SINCE THAT AREA DID NOT RECEIVE MUCH ICE/DAMAGE AND WINDS LOOK EVEN            
 MORE MARGINAL IN THAT AREA WITH H85 WINDS WEAKENING A BIT BY THE               
 TIME THE STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES REACH THAT LOCATION.                    
 MONDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A VERY WINDY DAY WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES                
 DEVELOPING BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA.             
 DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW SHOULD HELP THE MIXING...AND BUFKIT                   
 MOMENTUM TRANSFER SHOWS THE POTENTIAL TO MIX WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60             
 KTS TO THE SURFACE.  CURRENTLY WE HAVE GOT A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR ALL           
 BUT THE FAR SOUTHERN 3 COUNTIES OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...AND THINK            
 THAT IS STILL APPROPRIATE.  AT THE MINIMUM THIS SHOULD BE A HIGH END           
 ADVISORY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR               
 EVEN STRONGER WINDS IF THE MIXING IS DEEP ENOUGH.                              
 THE NEXT CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THE              
 END OF THE WORK WEEK.  A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ISENTROPIC LIFT (285K)            
 IS STILL BEING SHOWN BY THE 00Z GFS AS A TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE                
 WESTERN UNITED STATES.  COLD AIR APPEARS TO BE DEEP ENOUGH WITH THIS           
 EVENT THAT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD RECEIVE SNOW.  CURRENT             
 FORECAST GRIDS HAVE GOT THIS COVERED...HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE                    
 SURPRISED TO SEE AN INCREASE IN POPS IF MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT               
 WITH THIS SYSTEM.                                                              
 &&                                                                             
 .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NE...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR          
      NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.                               
      WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON           
      FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-060>063-072>075-082>085.                           
 KS...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR          
      KSZ005>007.                                                               
      WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON           
      FOR KSZ005-006-017-018.                                                   
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 KING                                                                           
</pre> ne                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT                                         
 926 PM EST MON JAN 8 2007                                                      
 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...                                               
 ALTHOUGH PRIMARY H5 LOW CENTER HAS LIFTED WELL NORTH AND EAST OF               
 THE REGION PER 02Z IR IMAGERY...TRAILING VORT FILAMENT EXTENDING               
 SWWD BACK INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VLY OF NY IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN               
 SCT VLY -SHRA AND ADIRONDACK -SHSN AT THE CURRENT TIME.                        
 ALSO...WITH STRONG PREVAILING DEEP-LAYER WLY FLOW /35-45KTS PER                
 LATEST KTYX VAD WIND PROFILE/ LAKE ONTARIO ENHANCED SNOW BANDS                 
 HAVE BEEN IMPINGING ON SWRN ESSEX COUNTY NY. HAVE MODIFIED THE                 
 FORECAST OVERNIGHT FOR EXPECTED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES               
 IN THE ADIRONDACKS...WITH THE HIGHEST AMTS IN WRN ESSEX COUNTY. AN             
 ISOLATED 4 INCH REPORT IS POSSIBLE...BUT LATEST RUC FORECAST                   
 CONTINUES TO SUGGEST 20DEGS OF VEERING IN 800-600MB LAYER OVER THE             
 NEXT FEW HRS...ENOUGH TO SHIFT LAKE ENHANCED BAND SOUTH OF OUR                 
 PORTION OF THE ADIRONDACKS. LARGE-SCALE FORCING BEGINS TO DIMINISH             
 AS WELL AS H5 VORT AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION AFTER 06Z.                   
 A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY CROSS THE SRN CHAMPLAIN VLY TO REACH THE                
 S-CENTRAL GREEN MTNS...AND THIS IS ALREADY WELL-HANDLED IN THE                 
 FORECAST.                                                                      
 NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.                                      
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM EST MON JAN 8 2007/                         
 SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
 MID/UPPER LVL TROF CONTS TO DIG ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS THIS AFTN AS            
 PLUME OF MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE RACES INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND             
 THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. STRONG S/W ENERGY ACRS NY ALONG WITH SFC               
 COLD FRNT CONTS TO MOVE ACRS OUR CWA THIS AFTN...WITH SOME                     
 DRYING/SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING BEHIND SYSTEM ACRS WESTERN/NORTHERN NY            
 ATTM.                                                                          
 STILL PLENTY OF LEFTOVER MOISTURE IN ULVL TROF AXIS AND COMBINED               
 WITH SEVERAL WEAK SFC TROFS AND EMBEDDED 5H VORTS WL KEEP CHCS FOR             
 SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING ACRS MTN ZNS NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.                   
 SFC ANALYSIS PLACES 990MB LOW PRES NORTH OF MANIWAKI ATTM WITH                 
 GREATEST 3HR PRES FALLS TOWARD EASTERN CANADA...WHILE GREATEST 3HR             
 PRES RISES ARE OCCURRING ACRS NORTHERN NY ATTM. BASED ON WEAK LINE             
 OF SHOWERS AND TEXTURE TO CLOUDS PER LATEST VIS SAT LOOP...SFC COLD            
 FRNT NOW ENTERING EASTERN VT. SOME BREAKS NOTED BEHIND FRNT WITH SW            
 WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS TO NEAR 35 ATTM ACRS WESTERN NY/SLV            
 AND SOME RW/SW. THIS WL CONT TO OVERSPREAD CPV AND EASTERN VT THRU             
 THE REST OF THIS AFTN.                                                         
 SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                         
 MID/UPPER LVL TROF DEEPENS ACRS NE CONUS AS SFC COLD FRNT RACES INTO           
 EASTERN NEW ENGLAND BY 06Z TONIGHT. LLVL CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND FRNT              
 AND MEAN LLVL FLW BECMGS FAVORABLE ACRS SOUTHERN SLV/WESTERN DACKS             
 FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF LE SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY SHIFTS              
 SOUTH OF FA BY MIDNIGHT. WL MENTION LIKELY POPS WITH A TRACE TO 2              
 INCHES EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE...LEFTOVER MOISTURE...STEEP 1000-850MB              
 LAPSE RATES AND UPSLOPE FLW WL PRODUCE SOME MTN SW...WL MENTION                
 CHC/LIKELY POPS THIS EVENING. STILL SOME QUESTION ABOUT POTENTIAL              
 FOR GUSTY WINDS BUT BOTH GFS/NAM SHOW BEST LLVL WIND FIELDS QUICKLY            
 LIFTING INTO CANADA THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...MOMENTUM TRANSFER              
 VALUES OF BUFKIT ARE MUCH WEAKER AND SUGGEST ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS           
 WL BE TOUGH TO REACH...ESPECIALLY ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT.                    
 THEREFORE WL REMOVE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS REGION. MEANWHILE...SFC             
 OBS SHOW GUSTS TO 30 TO 40 MPH ACRS NORTHERN DACKS/SLV...BUT ONCE              
 AGAIN ADVISORY CRITERIA NOT BEING MEET...THEREFORE WL ALSO CANCEL              
 ADVISORY.. HOWEVER...PLB BUFKIT SOUNDING STILL SHOWS MIXED BL WINDS            
 OF 30 KNOTS WITH GUST POTENTIAL TO 40 KTS THRU 03Z THIS EVENING.               
 WHICH WL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.                                         
 TUESDAY-THURS...MID/UPPER LVL TROF CONTS ACRS OUR CWA WITH POTENTIAL           
 FOR SOME MTN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY WEDS WHEN SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD            
 AIR MOVES ACRS OUR CWA. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BTWN -14 TO -16C BY             
 18Z WEDS ACRS NORTHERN NEW YORK. THIS SUGGEST TEMPS WL STRUGGLE TO             
 REACH L/M20S MOST LOCATIONS ACRS NNY TO L/M30S SOUTHERN VT ZNS.                
 WEDS NIGHT WL BE COLD WITH SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING ACRS OUR CWA AND             
 LIGHT WINDS/CLRING SKIES. WL CUT SEVERAL DEGREES OFF                           
 GUIDANCE...NEAR 0F FOR SLK/NEK TO AROUND 10 BTV/PLB. THURS...SFC               
 HIGH PRES QUICKLY SHIFTS INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH STRONG LLVL             
 WAA DEVELOPING AS PROGRESSIVE ULVL PATTERN CONTS. WL MENTION TEMPS             
 NEAR NORMAL AND KEEP FCST DRY ATTM.                                            
 LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                           
 ON FRIDAY...A BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ABOVE NORMAL                 
 TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY GIVEN LACK OF SNOW COVER.              
 HAVE GONE ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. A COLD            
 FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE              
 VALLEY ON FRIDAY...SO PLAN TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST. GFS MODEL                
 LOOKS OVERDONE IN HINTING AT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION ON                
 FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE FRONTAL LOCATION STILL REMAINING WELL            
 TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.                                              
 FRIDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION.                
 CONDITIONS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN INITIALLY...BUT                 
 THEN MIXED PRECIPITATION LIKELY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR                
 WORKS SLOWLY SOUTH IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.                        
 ON SATURDAY...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY              
 ..AND THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. MAX TEMPERATURE                  
 FORECAST TRICKY...SO HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF THE MOS AND ENSEMBLE            
 GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A CHANCE OF            
 MIXED PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY.                                               
 A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON               
 SUNDAY. WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY...              
 AS MAX SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING.               
 AGAIN...HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE MOS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR                 
 MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.                                                    
 WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW ON MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE               
 OF RAIN EARLY MONDAY...AND THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW LATER MONDAY                  
 AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.                                           
 AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...                                                          
 THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE GREEN MOUNTAINS                  
 ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OBSCURED IN CLOUDS THROUGH 18Z ON TUESDAY.              
 MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 18Z                   
 ON TUESDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOME MVFR CEILINGS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.            
 EXPECTING SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO MOVE NORTHEAST FROM                 
 LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE ADIRONDACKS WITH SOME LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS               
 EXPECTED OVER THE ADIRONDACKS FROM THESE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.             
 &&                                                                             
 .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 VT...NONE.                                                                     
 NY...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SHORT TERM...BANACOS                                                           
</pre> ny                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                         
 114 AM EST MON JAN 8 2007                                                      
 .AVIATION /06Z-06Z/...                                                         
 LGT TO MOD RAIN WILL CONT UNTIL ABOUT 12Z TO 15Z. WILL SEE CONT                
 CIGS AND VSBYS MAINLY IN THE MVFR CAT...ALTHOUGH SOME IFR CIGS                 
 PSBL AT TIMES AT BGM...RME...AND ITH. DRIER AND COLD AIR MVES IN               
 BEHIND A COLD FNT AFT 15Z. THIS WILL MIX OUT ANY LEFTOVER LOW LVL              
 MOISTURE AND IMPRV VSBYS. CIGS SHD RISE WELL INTO THE VFR CAT ALL              
 STATIONS. XPCT GNRL VFR CONDS TO REMAIN THRU THE END OF THE                    
 PD...WITH WLY WINDS GUSTING TO 20 TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.                          
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 /ISSUED 933 PM EST SUN JAN 7 2007/                                             
 SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...                                                
 SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN HERE ATOP MOUNT ETTRICK /KBGM/...AND WE                  
 HAVE RECEIVED A FEW CALLS FROM AROUND THE AREA INDICATING OTHER                
 POCKETS OF MIXED SLEET AND SNOW IN THE REGION. THE DOMINANT PTYPE              
 IS RAIN...BUT THE MIX IS NOT A SURPRISE GIVEN THE INITIAL LLVL DRY             
 LAYER AND CAPABILITY OF ATMOSPHERE TO APPROACH A FREEZING WET-BULB             
 TEMP GIVEN THE INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP AT ONSET. HAVE UPDATED FOR A            
 CHC FOR SNOW/SLEET MIX ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT...            
 THEN WE ARE QUITE CONFIDENT THAT EVERYONE WILL BE RAIN ALTHOUGH                
 HIGHEST TERRAIN IN NRN ONEIDA...AND ALSO THE WRN CATS MAY BE A                 
 HOLD OUT INTO THE WEE HOURS. QPF AMOUNTS STILL LOOK ON TRACK WITH              
 HVY QPF IN EXCESS OF AN INCH FOR THE UPPER DELAWARE BASIN AND NRN              
 BRANCH SUSQUEHANNA. FLOOD WATCHES CONTINUE. ALL RIVER POINT FCSTS              
 HAVE BEEN ISSUED THIS EVENING WITH NO FLOODING EXPECTED FROM THE               
 FCST QPF. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR OUR NOTORIOUSLY QUICK HEADWATER                 
 POINTS FOR ANY FAST RISES AND TRY TO STAY AHEAD OF THEM. OTHERWISE             
 NO CHANGES WITH LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWING SYSTEM PULLING OUT ON                  
 MONDAY. HINTS OF A BIG LES EVENT ON THE HORIZON FOR OUR NORTHERN               
 AREAS TUES NITE-WEDS...SO STAY TUNED.                                          
 SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... CLDS INCREASING THIS AFTN              
 AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS CONTINUE              
 TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED IN                
 THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS AFTN TO LAKE ONTARIO AROUND 12Z MONDAY.              
 INCREASING GULF MOISTURE WITH BEST LIFT AND HIGHEST PRECIPITATION              
 AMOUNTS OCCURRING MAINLY JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM              
 SE HALF OF PA THRU SE NYS. BUT GIVEN THE WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE             
 AREA, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN NE PA RECEIVING IN EXCESS OF 1.50                
 INCHES FROM THE LAST EVENT AND ALSO INCREASING SELY FLOW AND                   
 UPSLOPE ISSUES, WE FELT RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THIS SYSTEM AROUND               
 AN INCH TO 1.5 INCHES COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED SMALL STREAM                
 AND URBAN FLOODING PROBLEM. THEREFORE WENT WITH A FLOOD WATCH FOR              
 THE SOUTHEAST FA. ALSO ISSUED WATCH FOR ONEIDA COUNTY. THE NAM                 
 DATA SHOWS A SECONDARY MAX OF PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA...AND ALONG               
 WITH SELY FLOW MAKING THE AREA PRONE TO HIGHER PRECIP AMTS AND                 
 ONGOING PROBLEMS AT WEST CANADA CREEK AND RISES ON MOHAWK RIVER,               
 DECIDED TO ALSO ISSUE FLOOD WATCH FOR ONEIDA COUNTY.                           
 AS THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS OUR FAR                   
 NORTHERN COUNTIES, THE NAM, GFS AND RUC PROFILES ARE SHOWING A                 
 START AS SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY WITH A COUPLE OF                   
 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. HAVE               
 ADDED THIS POSSIBILITY TO THE FORECAST BASED ON THE PROFILES AND               
 HPC WINTER WX SHOWING SOME SNOW ACROSS THAT AREA TONIGHT.                      
 ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPERATURES DROP OFF A LITTLE THIS EVENING                  
 BEFORE RISING A COUPLE OF DEGREES AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.                      
 MONDAY...THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO SE QUEBEC BY AFTERNOON. CAA WILL               
 CHANGE PRECIP TO SNOW SHOWERS BY MID AFTERNOON ESP WRN/NRN CWA.                
 HIGH TEMPS WILL OCCUR BY LATE MORNING BEFORE DROPPING IN THE AFTN.             
 MONDAY NIGHT...MOST LAKE EFFECT OCCURS NORTH AND WEST OF THE FA AS             
 SWLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. THERE COULD BE SOME SHSN FROM              
 LAKE ERIE BAND ACROSS FINGER LAKES REGION, THUS LOW CHC POPS                   
 MAINLY WEST.                                                                   
 TUESDAY...SFC TROF SWINGS THRU THE AREA WITH SCT SHSN ESPECIALLY               
 IN THE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A HIGH POP LOW QPF EVENT, BUT FOR NOW              
 HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHC POPS WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL AMTS AND THIS                 
 CAN BE TWEAKED LATER.                                                          
 LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                    
 SOME ACTIVE WX IN THE OFFING FOR CNTRL NY AND NE PA. TUES NGT AND              
 WED WILL FEATURE LES SNOW TO THE SE OF LAKE ONTARIO. INITIAL LOOK AT           
 MDL PROFILES SHOWS POTNL FOR ADVISORY/WARNING ACCUMS DURING THIS PD,           
 WITH WELL ALIGNED 290-300 FLOW, HIGH INVERSION, XCLNT                          
 OMEGA/DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH CIGS, CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, AND POTNL               
 ENHANCEMENT DUE TO S/WV TROF AND GEORGIAN BAY CONNECTION. HIGH PRES            
 TO BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE, WITH FAIR WX FOR THU, GREATER                 
 UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THE FCST BY LATE WEEK, WITH A CDFNT XPCTD TO           
 DROP INTO CNTRL NY ON SAT. HPC GUIDANCE HAS IT NEARLY STNRY ACRS THE           
 SRN TIER INTO SUNDAY MRNG. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE MILD S OF THE FNT,              
 WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS AND POTNL FOR MIXED PCPN N OF IT. WE STAYED             
 WITH HPC FOR FNTL PSN, BUT AGAIN, LOW CONFIDENCE ANY WAY YOU LOOK AT           
 IT. IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT THE FNT WILL LIFT NWD WITH FCST               
 AREA GETTING INTO THE WARM SECTOR ON SAT NGT AS LOW PRES TRACKS INTO           
 THE GTLAKES. AT ANY RATE, WE PLAYED THE POTNL FOR SOME FZRA N OF THE           
 BNDRY, AND WENT WITH COOLER MAXES, FOR NXT SAT/SUN. WILL ALSO HAVE             
 TO MONITOR MDL TRENDS THIS WEEK, AS SCENARIO ALSO SUGGESTS THE POTNL           
 FOR SOME HVY PCPN DAYS 6-7.                                                    
 &&                                                                             
 .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ057-062.                          
      FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ009-037.                 
 PA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR PAZ039-040-043-044-047-              
      048-072.                                                                  
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 AVIATION...DGM                                                                 
</pre> ny                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                         
 933 PM EST SUN JAN 7 2007                                                      
 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...                                               
 SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN HERE ATOP MOUNT ETTRICK /KBGM/...AND WE                  
 HAVE RECEIVED A FEW CALLS FROM AROUND THE AREA INDICATING OTHER                
 POCKETS OF MIXED SLEET AND SNOW IN THE REGION. THE DOMINANT PTYPE              
 IS RAIN...BUT THE MIX IS NOT A SURPRISE GIVEN THE INITIAL LLVL DRY             
 LAYER AND CAPABILITY OF ATMOSPHERE TO APPROACH A FREEZING WET-BULB             
 TEMP GIVEN THE INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP AT ONSET. HAVE UPDATED FOR A            
 CHC FOR SNOW/SLEET MIX ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT...            
 THEN WE ARE QUITE CONFIDENT THAT EVERYONE WILL BE RAIN ALTHOUGH                
 HIGHEST TERRAIN IN NRN ONEIDA...AND ALSO THE WRN CATS MAY BE A                 
 HOLD OUT INTO THE WEE HOURS. QPF AMOUNTS STILL LOOK ON TRACK WITH              
 HVY QPF IN EXCESS OF AN INCH FOR THE UPPER DELAWARE BASIN AND NRN              
 BRANCH SUSQUEHANNA. FLOOD WATCHES CONTINUE. ALL RIVER POINT FCSTS              
 HAVE BEEN ISSUED THIS EVENING WITH NO FLOODING EXPECTED FROM THE               
 FCST QPF. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR OUR NOTORIOUSLY QUICK HEADWATER                 
 POINTS FOR ANY FAST RISES AND TRY TO STAY AHEAD OF THEM. OTHERWISE             
 NO CHANGES WITH LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWING SYSTEM PULLING OUT ON                  
 MONDAY. HINTS OF A BIG LES EVENT ON THE HORIZON FOR OUR NORTHERN               
 AREAS TUES NITE-WEDS...SO STAY TUNED.                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 /ISSUED 651 PM EST SUN JAN 7 2007/                                             
 AVIATION /080000Z-090000Z/...                                                  
 EXPECT RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT THREE HOURS              
 AS RAIN BEGINS...POSSIBLY EVEN AS A LITTLE WET SNOW. CONDITIONS                
 SHOULD DROP TO MVFR THROUGHOUT THE REGION BY 3Z. EXPECT CONDITIONS             
 TO GO PREDOMINATELY IFR /DUE PRIMARILY TO CIGS/ AT BGM/ITH AFTER               
 7Z WITH OTHER SITES DROPPING TO IFR FROM TIME TO TIME...ESPECIALLY             
 WITH ANY EMBEDDED HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. EXPECT A GRADUAL                       
 IMPROVEMENT BACK TO SOLID MVFR EVERYWHERE BY ABOUT 13Z AND THEN                
 VFR BY 18-21Z EXCEPT AT SYR WHERE MVFR CIGS MAY HOLD THROUGH                   
 09/00Z. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 10-15KTS (INCREASING TO             
 45KTS AT 2000FT AGL) TONIGHT SHIFTING TO WESTERLY TOMORROW BY 15Z              
 AND THEN MARKEDLY STRENGTHENING TO 15-25KTS FOR THE AFTERNOON.                 
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 634 PM EST SUN JAN 7 2007/                                             
 SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...                                                
 UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR A FEW HOURS OF SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN THIS EVENING /DUE   
 TO WET-BULB PROCESSES/ OVER STEUBEN AND BRADFORD COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY         
 THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. RADAR INITIALLY HAD THAT FUZZY SNOW LOOK TO             
 IT...AND KELZ AND KBFD CHECKED IN WITH SNOW AT THE HOURLY SO                   
 SUSPECT THERE ARE FLAKES FALLING OVER OUR HILLS OUT WEST TOO.                  
 ELSEWHERE...ADJUSTED TIMING OF RAIN ONSET BY AN HOUR OR SO AS                  
 PRECIP IS ROCKETING INTO THE AREA. IT WAS PRETTY CLOSE TO BEING ON             
 SCHEDULE...BUT A FEW AREAS IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES NEEDED            
 TO BE BUMPED UP ANYWAY.                                                        
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 315 PM EST SUN JAN 7 2007/                                             
 SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                        
 CLDS INCREASING THIS AFTN AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE                   
 FORECAST AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINING                 
 WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS AFTN TO              
 LAKE ONTARIO AROUND 12Z MONDAY. INCREASING GULF MOISTURE WITH BEST             
 LIFT AND HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OCCURRING MAINLY JUST                   
 SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM SE HALF OF PA THRU SE NYS. BUT             
 GIVEN THE WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN              
 NE PA RECEIVING IN EXCESS OF 1.50 INCHES FROM THE LAST EVENT AND               
 ALSO INCREASING SELY FLOW AND UPSLOPE ISSUES, WE FELT RAINFALL AMOUNTS         
 FROM THIS SYSTEM AROUND AN INCH TO 1.5 INCHES COULD LEAD TO SOME               
 LOCALIZED SMALL STREAM AND URBAN FLOODING PROBLEM. THEREFORE WENT              
 WITH A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEAST FA. ALSO ISSUED WATCH FOR                 
 ONEIDA COUNTY. THE NAM DATA SHOWS A SECONDARY MAX OF PRECIP ACROSS             
 THE AREA...AND ALONG WITH SELY FLOW MAKING THE AREA PRONE TO                   
 HIGHER PRECIP AMTS AND ONGOING PROBLEMS AT WEST CANADA CREEK AND               
 RISES ON MOHAWK RIVER, DECIDED TO ALSO ISSUE FLOOD WATCH FOR                   
 ONEIDA COUNTY.                                                                 
 AS THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS OUR FAR                   
 NORTHERN COUNTIES, THE NAM, GFS AND RUC PROFILES ARE SHOWING A                 
 START AS SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY WITH A COUPLE OF                   
 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. HAVE               
 ADDED THIS POSSIBILITY TO THE FORECAST BASED ON THE PROFILES AND               
 HPC WINTER WX SHOWING SOME SNOW ACROSS THAT AREA TONIGHT.                      
 ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPERATURES DROP OFF A LITTLE THIS EVENING                  
 BEFORE RISING A COUPLE OF DEGREES AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.                      
 MONDAY...THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO SE QUEBEC BY AFTERNOON. CAA WILL               
 CHANGE PRECIP TO SNOW SHOWERS BY MID AFTERNOON ESP WRN/NRN CWA.                
 HIGH TEMPS WILL OCCUR BY LATE MORNING BEFORE DROPPING IN THE AFTN.             
 MONDAY NIGHT...MOST LAKE EFFECT OCCURS NORTH AND WEST OF THE FA AS             
 SWLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. THERE COULD BE SOME SHSN FROM              
 LAKE ERIE BAND ACROSS FINGER LAKES REGION, THUS LOW CHC POPS                   
 MAINLY WEST.                                                                   
 TUESDAY...SFC TROF SWINGS THRU THE AREA WITH SCT SHSN ESPECIALLY               
 IN THE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A HIGH POP LOW QPF EVENT, BUT FOR NOW              
 HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHC POPS WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL AMTS AND THIS                 
 CAN BE TWEAKED LATER.                                                          
 LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                    
 SOME ACTIVE WX IN THE OFFING FOR CNTRL NY AND NE PA. TUES NGT AND              
 WED WILL FEATURE LES SNOW TO THE SE OF LAKE ONTARIO. INITIAL LOOK AT           
 MDL PROFILES SHOWS POTNL FOR ADVISORY/WARNING ACCUMS DURING THIS PD,           
 WITH WELL ALIGNED 290-300 FLOW, HIGH INVERSION, XCLNT                          
 OMEGA/DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH CIGS, CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, AND POTNL               
 ENHANCEMENT DUE TO S/WV TROF AND GEORGIAN BAY CONNECTION. HIGH PRES            
 TO BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE, WITH FAIR WX FOR THU, GREATER                 
 UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THE FCST BY LATE WEEK, WITH A CDFNT XPCTD TO           
 DROP INTO CNTRL NY ON SAT. HPC GUIDANCE HAS IT NEARLY STNRY ACRS THE           
 SRN TIER INTO SUNDAY MRNG. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE MILD S OF THE FNT,              
 WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS AND POTNL FOR MIXED PCPN N OF IT. WE STAYED             
 WITH HPC FOR FNTL PSN, BUT AGAIN, LOW CONFIDENCE ANY WAY YOU LOOK AT           
 IT. IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT THE FNT WILL LIFT NWD WITH FCST               
 AREA GETTING INTO THE WARM SECTOR ON SAT NGT AS LOW PRES TRACKS INTO           
 THE GTLAKES. AT ANY RATE, WE PLAYED THE POTNL FOR SOME FZRA N OF THE           
 BNDRY, AND WENT WITH COOLER MAXES, FOR NXT SAT/SUN. WILL ALSO HAVE             
 TO MONITOR MDL TRENDS THIS WEEK, AS SCENARIO ALSO SUGGESTS THE POTNL           
 FOR SOME HVY PCPN DAYS 6-7.                                                    
 &&                                                                             
 .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR NYZ057-062.                        
      FLOOD WATCH FROM 3 AM EST MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR             
      NYZ009-037.                                                               
 PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR PAZ039-040-043-044-047-            
      048-072.                                                                  
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SHORT TERM...JAB                                                               
</pre> ny                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                             
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                         
 651 PM EST SUN JAN 7 2007                                                      
 .AVIATION /080000Z-090000Z/...                                                 
 EXPECT RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT THREE HOURS              
 AS RAIN BEGINS...POSSIBLY EVEN AS A LITTLE WET SNOW. CONDITIONS                
 SHOULD DROP TO MVFR THROUGHOUT THE REGION BY 3Z. EXPECT CONDITIONS             
 TO GO PREDOMINATELY IFR /DUE PRIMARILY TO CIGS/ AT BGM/ITH AFTER               
 7Z WITH OTHER SITES DROPPING TO IFR FROM TIME TO TIME...ESPECIALLY             
 WITH ANY EMBEDDED HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. EXPECT A GRADUAL                       
 IMPROVEMENT BACK TO SOLID MVFR EVERYWHERE BY ABOUT 13Z AND THEN                
 VFR BY 18-21Z EXCEPT AT SYR WHERE MVFR CIGS MAY HOLD THROUGH                   
 09/00Z. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 10-15KTS (INCREASING TO             
 45KTS AT 2000FT AGL) TONIGHT SHIFTING TO WESTERLY TOMORROW BY 15Z              
 AND THEN MARKEDLY STRENGTHENING TO 15-25KTS FOR THE AFTERNOON.                 
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 /ISSUED 634 PM EST SUN JAN 7 2007/                                             
 SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...                                                
 UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR A FEW HOURS OF SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN THIS EVENING /DUE   
 TO WET-BULB PROCESSES/ OVER STEUBEN AND BRADFORD COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY         
 THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. RADAR INITIALLY HAD THAT FUZZY SNOW LOOK TO             
 IT...AND KELZ AND KBFD CHECKED IN WITH SNOW AT THE HOURLY SO                   
 SUSPECT THERE ARE FLAKES FALLING OVER OUR HILLS OUT WEST TOO.                  
 ELSEWHERE...ADJUSTED TIMING OF RAIN ONSET BY AN HOUR OR SO AS                  
 PRECIP IS ROCKETING INTO THE AREA. IT WAS PRETTY CLOSE TO BEING ON             
 SCHEDULE...BUT A FEW AREAS IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES NEEDED            
 TO BE BUMPED UP ANYWAY.                                                        
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 315 PM EST SUN JAN 7 2007/                                             
 SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                        
 CLDS INCREASING THIS AFTN AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE                   
 FORECAST AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINING                 
 WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS AFTN TO              
 LAKE ONTARIO AROUND 12Z MONDAY. INCREASING GULF MOISTURE WITH BEST             
 LIFT AND HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OCCURRING MAINLY JUST                   
 SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM SE HALF OF PA THRU SE NYS. BUT             
 GIVEN THE WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN              
 NE PA RECEIVING IN EXCESS OF 1.50 INCHES FROM THE LAST EVENT AND               
 ALSO INCREASING SELY FLOW AND UPSLOPE ISSUES, WE FELT RAINFALL AMOUNTS         
 FROM THIS SYSTEM AROUND AN INCH TO 1.5 INCHES COULD LEAD TO SOME               
 LOCALIZED SMALL STREAM AND URBAN FLOODING PROBLEM. THEREFORE WENT              
 WITH A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEAST FA. ALSO ISSUED WATCH FOR                 
 ONEIDA COUNTY. THE NAM DATA SHOWS A SECONDARY MAX OF PRECIP ACROSS             
 THE AREA...AND ALONG WITH SELY FLOW MAKING THE AREA PRONE TO                   
 HIGHER PRECIP AMTS AND ONGOING PROBLEMS AT WEST CANADA CREEK AND               
 RISES ON MOHAWK RIVER, DECIDED TO ALSO ISSUE FLOOD WATCH FOR                   
 ONEIDA COUNTY.                                                                 
 AS THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS OUR FAR                   
 NORTHERN COUNTIES, THE NAM, GFS AND RUC PROFILES ARE SHOWING A                 
 START AS SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY WITH A COUPLE OF                   
 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. HAVE               
 ADDED THIS POSSIBILITY TO THE FORECAST BASED ON THE PROFILES AND               
 HPC WINTER WX SHOWING SOME SNOW ACROSS THAT AREA TONIGHT.                      
 ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPERATURES DROP OFF A LITTLE THIS EVENING                  
 BEFORE RISING A COUPLE OF DEGREES AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.                      
 MONDAY...THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO SE QUEBEC BY AFTERNOON. CAA WILL               
 CHANGE PRECIP TO SNOW SHOWERS BY MID AFTERNOON ESP WRN/NRN CWA.                
 HIGH TEMPS WILL OCCUR BY LATE MORNING BEFORE DROPPING IN THE AFTN.             
 MONDAY NIGHT...MOST LAKE EFFECT OCCURS NORTH AND WEST OF THE FA AS             
 SWLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. THERE COULD BE SOME SHSN FROM              
 LAKE ERIE BAND ACROSS FINGER LAKES REGION, THUS LOW CHC POPS                   
 MAINLY WEST.                                                                   
 TUESDAY...SFC TROF SWINGS THRU THE AREA WITH SCT SHSN ESPECIALLY               
 IN THE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A HIGH POP LOW QPF EVENT, BUT FOR NOW              
 HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHC POPS WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL AMTS AND THIS                 
 CAN BE TWEAKED LATER.                                                          
 LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                    
 SOME ACTIVE WX IN THE OFFING FOR CNTRL NY AND NE PA. TUES NGT AND              
 WED WILL FEATURE LES SNOW TO THE SE OF LAKE ONTARIO. INITIAL LOOK AT           
 MDL PROFILES SHOWS POTNL FOR ADVISORY/WARNING ACCUMS DURING THIS PD,           
 WITH WELL ALIGNED 290-300 FLOW, HIGH INVERSION, XCLNT                          
 OMEGA/DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH CIGS, CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, AND POTNL               
 ENHANCEMENT DUE TO S/WV TROF AND GEORGIAN BAY CONNECTION. HIGH PRES            
 TO BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE, WITH FAIR WX FOR THU, GREATER                 
 UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THE FCST BY LATE WEEK, WITH A CDFNT XPCTD TO           
 DROP INTO CNTRL NY ON SAT. HPC GUIDANCE HAS IT NEARLY STNRY ACRS THE           
 SRN TIER INTO SUNDAY MRNG. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE MILD S OF THE FNT,              
 WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS AND POTNL FOR MIXED PCPN N OF IT. WE STAYED             
 WITH HPC FOR FNTL PSN, BUT AGAIN, LOW CONFIDENCE ANY WAY YOU LOOK AT           
 IT. IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT THE FNT WILL LIFT NWD WITH FCST               
 AREA GETTING INTO THE WARM SECTOR ON SAT NGT AS LOW PRES TRACKS INTO           
 THE GTLAKES. AT ANY RATE, WE PLAYED THE POTNL FOR SOME FZRA N OF THE           
 BNDRY, AND WENT WITH COOLER MAXES, FOR NXT SAT/SUN. WILL ALSO HAVE             
 TO MONITOR MDL TRENDS THIS WEEK, AS SCENARIO ALSO SUGGESTS THE POTNL           
 FOR SOME HVY PCPN DAYS 6-7.                                                    
 &&                                                                             
 .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING              
      FOR NYZ057-062.                                                           
      FLOOD WATCH FROM 3 AM EST MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR             
      NYZ009-037.                                                               
 PA...FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING              
      FOR PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072.                                       
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 AVIATION...JMA                                                                 
</pre> ny                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                         
 634 PM EST SUN JAN 7 2007                                                      
 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...                                               
 UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR A FEW HOURS OF SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN THIS EVENING /DUE   
 TO WET-BULB PROCESSES/ OVER STEUBEN AND BRADFORD COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY         
 THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. RADAR INITIALLY HAD THAT FUZZY SNOW LOOK TO             
 IT...AND KELZ AND KBFD CHECKED IN WITH SNOW AT THE HOURLY SO                   
 SUSPECT THERE ARE FLAKES FALLING OVER OUR HILLS OUT WEST TOO.                  
 ELSEWHERE...ADJUSTED TIMING OF RAIN ONSET BY AN HOUR OR SO AS                  
 PRECIP IS ROCKETING INTO THE AREA. IT WAS PRETTY CLOSE TO BEING ON             
 SCHEDULE...BUT A FEW AREAS IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES NEEDED            
 TO BE BUMPED UP ANYWAY.                                                        
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 /ISSUED 315 PM EST SUN JAN 7 2007/                                             
 SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                        
 CLDS INCREASING THIS AFTN AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE                   
 FORECAST AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINING                 
 WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS AFTN TO              
 LAKE ONTARIO AROUND 12Z MONDAY. INCREASING GULF MOISTURE WITH BEST             
 LIFT AND HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OCCURRING MAINLY JUST                   
 SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM SE HALF OF PA THRU SE NYS. BUT             
 GIVEN THE WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN              
 NE PA RECEIVING IN EXCESS OF 1.50 INCHES FROM THE LAST EVENT AND               
 ALSO INCREASING SELY FLOW AND UPSLOPE ISSUES, WE FELT RAINFALL AMOUNTS         
 FROM THIS SYSTEM AROUND AN INCH TO 1.5 INCHES COULD LEAD TO SOME               
 LOCALIZED SMALL STREAM AND URBAN FLOODING PROBLEM. THEREFORE WENT              
 WITH A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEAST FA. ALSO ISSUED WATCH FOR                 
 ONEIDA COUNTY. THE NAM DATA SHOWS A SECONDARY MAX OF PRECIP ACROSS             
 THE AREA...AND ALONG WITH SELY FLOW MAKING THE AREA PRONE TO                   
 HIGHER PRECIP AMTS AND ONGOING PROBLEMS AT WEST CANADA CREEK AND               
 RISES ON MOHAWK RIVER, DECIDED TO ALSO ISSUE FLOOD WATCH FOR                   
 ONEIDA COUNTY.                                                                 
 AS THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS OUR FAR                   
 NORTHERN COUNTIES, THE NAM, GFS AND RUC PROFILES ARE SHOWING A                 
 START AS SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY WITH A COUPLE OF                   
 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. HAVE               
 ADDED THIS POSSIBILITY TO THE FORECAST BASED ON THE PROFILES AND               
 HPC WINTER WX SHOWING SOME SNOW ACROSS THAT AREA TONIGHT.                      
 ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPERATURES DROP OFF A LITTLE THIS EVENING                  
 BEFORE RISING A COUPLE OF DEGREES AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.                      
 MONDAY...THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO SE QUEBEC BY AFTERNOON. CAA WILL               
 CHANGE PRECIP TO SNOW SHOWERS BY MID AFTERNOON ESP WRN/NRN CWA.                
 HIGH TEMPS WILL OCCUR BY LATE MORNING BEFORE DROPPING IN THE AFTN.             
 MONDAY NIGHT...MOST LAKE EFFECT OCCURS NORTH AND WEST OF THE FA AS             
 SWLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. THERE COULD BE SOME SHSN FROM              
 LAKE ERIE BAND ACROSS FINGER LAKES REGION, THUS LOW CHC POPS                   
 MAINLY WEST.                                                                   
 TUESDAY...SFC TROF SWINGS THRU THE AREA WITH SCT SHSN ESPECIALLY               
 IN THE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A HIGH POP LOW QPF EVENT, BUT FOR NOW              
 HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHC POPS WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL AMTS AND THIS                 
 CAN BE TWEAKED LATER.                                                          
 LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                    
 SOME ACTIVE WX IN THE OFFING FOR CNTRL NY AND NE PA. TUES NGT AND              
 WED WILL FEATURE LES SNOW TO THE SE OF LAKE ONTARIO. INITIAL LOOK AT           
 MDL PROFILES SHOWS POTNL FOR ADVISORY/WARNING ACCUMS DURING THIS PD,           
 WITH WELL ALIGNED 290-300 FLOW, HIGH INVERSION, XCLNT                          
 OMEGA/DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH CIGS, CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, AND POTNL               
 ENHANCEMENT DUE TO S/WV TROF AND GEORGIAN BAY CONNECTION. HIGH PRES            
 TO BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE, WITH FAIR WX FOR THU, GREATER                 
 UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THE FCST BY LATE WEEK, WITH A CDFNT XPCTD TO           
 DROP INTO CNTRL NY ON SAT. HPC GUIDANCE HAS IT NEARLY STNRY ACRS THE           
 SRN TIER INTO SUNDAY MRNG. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE MILD S OF THE FNT,              
 WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS AND POTNL FOR MIXED PCPN N OF IT. WE STAYED             
 WITH HPC FOR FNTL PSN, BUT AGAIN, LOW CONFIDENCE ANY WAY YOU LOOK AT           
 IT. IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT THE FNT WILL LIFT NWD WITH FCST               
 AREA GETTING INTO THE WARM SECTOR ON SAT NGT AS LOW PRES TRACKS INTO           
 THE GTLAKES. AT ANY RATE, WE PLAYED THE POTNL FOR SOME FZRA N OF THE           
 BNDRY, AND WENT WITH COOLER MAXES, FOR NXT SAT/SUN. WILL ALSO HAVE             
 TO MONITOR MDL TRENDS THIS WEEK, AS SCENARIO ALSO SUGGESTS THE POTNL           
 FOR SOME HVY PCPN DAYS 6-7.                                                    
 AVIATION /18Z-18Z/... CI/AC DECK WILL LOWER AND THICKEN, WITH                  
 CI/AC DECK WILL LOWER AND THICKEN, WITH RAIN AND MVFR CIGS                     
 OVERSPREADING THE RGN THIS EVNG FROM SW TO NE, GNRLY IN THE 00-03Z             
 TIME FRAME. IFR/PSBL LIFR CONDITIONS TNGT WITH RAIN. ADDED LLWS TO             
 TAFS FOR THE OVRNGT PD, GIVEN THE STRONG LOW LVL JET. PCPN SHUD                
 BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATE TNGT, WITH LINGERING PCPN TMRW MRNG. E TO SE           
 WINDS TNGT, BCMG GUSTY (20-25) AT ELEVATED SITES, SHIFTING TO SW               
 TMRW MRNG. GUSTY CONDITIONS ALSO LIKELY TMRW, SPCLY IN THE AFTN.               
 &&                                                                             
 .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING              
      FOR NYZ057-062.                                                           
      FLOOD WATCH FROM 3 AM EST MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR             
      NYZ009-037.                                                               
 PA...FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING              
      FOR PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072.                                       
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SHORT TERM...JAB                                                               
</pre> ny                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                         
 315 PM EST SUN JAN 7 2007                                                      
 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                       
 CLDS INCREASING THIS AFTN AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE                   
 FORECAST AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINING                 
 WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS AFTN TO              
 LAKE ONTARIO AROUND 12Z MONDAY. INCREASING GULF MOISTURE WITH BEST             
 LIFT AND HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OCCURRING MAINLY JUST                   
 SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM SE HALF OF PA THRU SE NYS. BUT             
 GIVEN THE WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN              
 NE PA RECEIVING IN EXCESS OF 1.50 INCHES FROM THE LAST EVENT AND               
 ALSO INCREASING SELY FLOW AND UPSLOPE ISSUES, WE FELT RAINFALL AMOUNTS         
 FROM THIS SYSTEM AROUND AN INCH TO 1.5 INCHES COULD LEAD TO SOME               
 LOCALIZED SMALL STREAM AND URBAN FLOODING PROBLEM. THEREFORE WENT              
 WITH A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEAST FA. ALSO ISSUED WATCH FOR                 
 ONEIDA COUNTY. THE NAM DATA SHOWS A SECONDARY MAX OF PRECIP ACROSS             
 THE AREA...AND ALONG WITH SELY FLOW MAKING THE AREA PRONE TO                   
 HIGHER PRECIP AMTS AND ONGOING PROBLEMS AT WEST CANADA CREEK AND               
 RISES ON MOHAWK RIVER, DECIDED TO ALSO ISSUE FLOOD WATCH FOR                   
 ONEIDA COUNTY.                                                                 
 AS THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS OUR FAR                   
 NORTHERN COUNTIES, THE NAM, GFS AND RUC PROFILES ARE SHOWING A                 
 START AS SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY WITH A COUPLE OF                   
 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. HAVE               
 ADDED THIS POSSIBILITY TO THE FORECAST BASED ON THE PROFILES AND               
 HPC WINTER WX SHOWING SOME SNOW ACROSS THAT AREA TONIGHT.                      
 ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPERATURES DROP OFF A LITTLE THIS EVENING                  
 BEFORE RISING A COUPLE OF DEGREES AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.                      
 MONDAY...THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO SE QUEBEC BY AFTERNOON. CAA WILL               
 CHANGE PRECIP TO SNOW SHOWERS BY MID AFTERNOON ESP WRN/NRN CWA.                
 HIGH TEMPS WILL OCCUR BY LATE MORNING BEFORE DROPPING IN THE AFTN.             
 MONDAY NIGHT...MOST LAKE EFFECT OCCURS NORTH AND WEST OF THE FA AS             
 SWLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. THERE COULD BE SOME SHSN FROM              
 LAKE ERIE BAND ACROSS FINGER LAKES REGION, THUS LOW CHC POPS                   
 MAINLY WEST.                                                                   
 TUESDAY...SFC TROF SWINGS THRU THE AREA WITH SCT SHSN ESPECIALLY               
 IN THE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A HIGH POP LOW QPF EVENT, BUT FOR NOW              
 HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHC POPS WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL AMTS AND THIS                 
 CAN BE TWEAKED LATER.                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                   
 SOME ACTIVE WX IN THE OFFING FOR CNTRL NY AND NE PA. TUES NGT AND              
 WED WILL FEATURE LES SNOW TO THE SE OF LAKE ONTARIO. INITIAL LOOK AT           
 MDL PROFILES SHOWS POTNL FOR ADVISORY/WARNING ACCUMS DURING THIS PD,           
 WITH WELL ALIGNED 290-300 FLOW, HIGH INVERSION, XCLNT                          
 OMEGA/DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH CIGS, CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, AND POTNL               
 ENHANCEMENT DUE TO S/WV TROF AND GEORGIAN BAY CONNECTION. HIGH PRES            
 TO BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE, WITH FAIR WX FOR THU, GREATER                 
 UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THE FCST BY LATE WEEK, WITH A CDFNT XPCTD TO           
 DROP INTO CNTRL NY ON SAT. HPC GUIDANCE HAS IT NEARLY STNRY ACRS THE           
 SRN TIER INTO SUNDAY MRNG. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE MILD S OF THE FNT,              
 WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS AND POTNL FOR MIXED PCPN N OF IT. WE STAYED             
 WITH HPC FOR FNTL PSN, BUT AGAIN, LOW CONFIDENCE ANY WAY YOU LOOK AT           
 IT. IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT THE FNT WILL LIFT NWD WITH FCST               
 AREA GETTING INTO THE WARM SECTOR ON SAT NGT AS LOW PRES TRACKS INTO           
 THE GTLAKES. AT ANY RATE, WE PLAYED THE POTNL FOR SOME FZRA N OF THE           
 BNDRY, AND WENT WITH COOLER MAXES, FOR NXT SAT/SUN. WILL ALSO HAVE             
 TO MONITOR MDL TRENDS THIS WEEK, AS SCENARIO ALSO SUGGESTS THE POTNL           
 FOR SOME HVY PCPN DAYS 6-7.                                                    
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION /18Z-18Z/... CI/AC DECK WILL LOWER AND THICKEN, WITH                 
 CI/AC DECK WILL LOWER AND THICKEN, WITH RAIN AND MVFR CIGS                     
 OVERSPREADING THE RGN THIS EVNG FROM SW TO NE, GNRLY IN THE 00-03Z             
 TIME FRAME. IFR/PSBL LIFR CONDITIONS TNGT WITH RAIN. ADDED LLWS TO             
 TAFS FOR THE OVRNGT PD, GIVEN THE STRONG LOW LVL JET. PCPN SHUD                
 BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATE TNGT, WITH LINGERING PCPN TMRW MRNG. E TO SE           
 WINDS TNGT, BCMG GUSTY (20-25) AT ELEVATED SITES, SHIFTING TO SW               
 TMRW MRNG. GUSTY CONDITIONS ALSO LIKELY TMRW, SPCLY IN THE AFTN.               
 &&                                                                             
 .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING              
      FOR NYZ057-062.                                                           
      FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR                
      NYZ009-037.                                                               
 PA...FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING              
      FOR PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072.                                       
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> ny                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                              
 645 PM EST SUN JAN 7 2007                                                      
 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...EARLY UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS OUTER BANKS              
 THIS EVENING. LATEST RADAR INDICATES FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AREA OF                 
 SHOWERS HOLDING TOGETHER AND WILL SPREAD OVER OUTER BANKS NEXT FEW             
 HOURS. ADJUSTED TEMPS AND DEW POINTS PER LATEST OBS.                           
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 /ISSUED 329 PM EST SUN JAN 7 2007/                                             
 SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...EXPECT TWO ROUNDS OF PRECIP NEXT 24 HOURS.              
 FIRST BATCH LATER THIS AFTN AND EVENING WL BE ASSOC WITH ISENT LIFT            
 AHEAD OF WARM FRONT. STILL LOOKS LIKE BEST CVRG WILL BE INLAND AND             
 CONT WITH CAT POPS INLAND TO LIKELY/CHC CLOSER TO COAST. EXPECT A              
 BREAK IN PRECIP LATER TONIGHT AS BEST ISENT LIFT MOVES N OF REGION.            
 ERN NC WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR BUT NOT MUCH FORCING SO JUST KEPT CHCY           
 POPS IN BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS MON AND EXPECT              
 BAND OF SHRA POSS TSRA TO CROSS REGION BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. WENT               
 WITH A PERIOD OF CAT POPS WITH FROPA MON MORN THEN RAPIDLY DRIES MON           
 AFTN AS GOOD CAA KICKS IN. STILL LOOKS LIKE INSTAB WILL BE VERY                
 LIMITED LATER TONIGHT AND MON SO KEPT TSRA MENTION TO SLIGHT CHC. AS           
 MENTIONED BEFORE IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS FOR SEVERE HOWEVER HARD TO             
 GET MUCH IF CAPES REMAIN VERY SMALL. WL HAVE TO WATCH ANY STRONGER             
 CELL CLOSELY FOR POSS ROTATION HOWEVER. TEMPS WILL BE VERY MILD                
 TONIGHT INTO MON MORN THEN STRONG CAA WL LEAD TO FALLING TEMPS MON             
 AFTN.                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...CONT DRY THROUGH THE                 
 EXTEND FCST. STRONG SRT WAVE WL ROTATE THRU THE REGION TUE AFTN AND            
 EVENING HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE SO NOT EXPECT PRECIP. BRIEF BUT               
 GOOD SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TUE NIGHT THROUGH              
 WED NIGHT. LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS MILD AGAIN AS               
 HGTS BUILD ALONG THE E CST WITH A TRF IN THE WRN U.S.                          
 &&                                                                             
 AVIATION /20Z-18Z/...WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD ACROSS SC THIS AFTN WITH           
 CLOUDS LOWERING OVER RTES. CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR BUT EXPECT CIGS TO            
 LOWER TO MVFR WITH SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS RTES THIS EVENING. WARM            
 FRONT LIFTS N OF REGION LATE EVENING WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 3K             
 FT AND STRONG SLY FLOW DEVELOPING. WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN THE            
 WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM SYSTEM BUT CURRENT FEELING IS TSTM                    
 DEVELOPMENT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY MORNING AS BEST FORCING                 
 ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL             
 BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND              
 HAVE PROB30 FOR TSTMS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. CDFNT MOVES EAST OF            
 RTES AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY WITH NWLY FLOW DEVELOPING.                           
 &&                                                                             
 MARINE...ELY FLOW INCREASING ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AS               
 WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THE FRONT EXPECTED TO LIFT               
 NORTH ACROSS WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING SLY AND             
 SPEEDS CONTINUING TO INCREASE. WINDS WILL REACH SCA CONDITIONS                 
 AROUND 00Z PER THE GFS WITH THE NAM AND RUC ABOUT 3 HRS BEHIND. TO             
 PRESERVE CONTINUITY CONTINUING HEADLINES STARTING SCA AT 00Z                   
 ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE SLIGHTLY SLOWER TO DEVELOP THAN GFS ADVERTISING.            
 WINDS INCREASE FURTHER LATE TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS.                   
 EXTENDED THE GALE WARNING TO INCLUDE THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS WINDS              
 WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO MIX TO THE SURFACE GIVEN THE WARM GULF                
 STREAM WATERS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST...AS OBSERVED AT 3OSE NEW              
 RIVER BUOY WITH 71F WATER TEMPS. FEELING IS BEST MIXING/STRONGEST              
 WINDS WILL BE IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THIS ZONE...SE OF CAPE             
 LOOKOUT...WHERE THE WATER TEMPS WILL BE WARMEST. THE FRONT PUSHES              
 EAST OF THE WATERS AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY WITH WLY FLOW DEVELOPING.              
 WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER               
 COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING STRONG              
 POST FRONTAL CAA WITH WINDS INCREASING TO SCA ONCE AGAIN. HIGH PRES            
 BUILDS INTO THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE THURSDAY AND           
 FRIDAY.                                                                        
 &&                                                                             
 .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NC...NONE.                                                                     
 MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EST           
      MONDAY NIGHT FOR AMZ130-135.                                              
      GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-             
      158.                                                                      
      SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST                   
      TUESDAY FOR AMZ150.                                                       
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 JBM                                                                            
</pre> nc                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                              
 329 PM EST SUN JAN 7 2007                                                      
 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...EXPECT TWO ROUNDS OF PRECIP             
 NEXT 24 HOURS. FIRST BATCH LATER THIS AFTN AND EVENING WL BE ASSOC             
 WITH ISENT LIFT AHEAD OF WARM FRONT. STILL LOOKS LIKE BEST CVRG WILL           
 BE INLAND AND CONT WITH CAT POPS INLAND TO LIKELY/CHC CLOSER TO                
 COAST. EXPECT A BREAK IN PRECIP LATER TONIGHT AS BEST ISENT LIFT               
 MOVES N OF REGION. ERN NC WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR BUT NOT MUCH                  
 FORCING SO JUST KEPT CHCY POPS IN BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. COLD FRONT              
 WILL CROSS MON AND EXPECT BAND OF SHRA POSS TSRA TO CROSS REGION               
 BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. WENT WITH A PERIOD OF CAT POPS WITH FROPA MON             
 MORN THEN RAPIDLY DRIES MON AFTN AS GOOD CAA KICKS IN. STILL LOOKS             
 LIKE INSTAB WILL BE VERY LIMITED LATER TONIGHT AND MON SO KEPT TSRA            
 MENTION TO SLIGHT CHC. AS MENTIONED BEFORE IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS              
 FOR SEVERE HOWEVER HARD TO GET MUCH IF CAPES REMAIN VERY SMALL. WL             
 HAVE TO WATCH ANY STRONGER CELL CLOSELY FOR POSS ROTATION HOWEVER.             
 TEMPS WILL BE VERY MILD TONIGHT INTO MON MORN THEN STRONG CAA WL               
 LEAD TO FALLING TEMPS MON AFTN.                                                
 &&                                                                             
 .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...CONT DRY THROUGH THE                
 EXTEND FCST. STRONG SRT WAVE WL ROTATE THRU THE REGION TUE AFTN AND            
 EVENING HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE SO NOT EXPECT PRECIP. BRIEF BUT               
 GOOD SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TUE NIGHT THROUGH              
 WED NIGHT. LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS MILD AGAIN AS               
 HGTS BUILD ALONG THE E CST WITH A TRF IN THE WRN U.S.                          
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION /20Z-18Z/...WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD ACROSS SC THIS AFTN               
 WITH CLOUDS LOWERING OVER RTES. CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR BUT EXPECT               
 CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR WITH SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS RTES THIS                  
 EVENING. WARM FRONT LIFTS N OF REGION LATE EVENING WITH SCT-BKN                
 CLOUDS AROUND 3K FT AND STRONG SLY FLOW DEVELOPING. WEAK INSTABILITY           
 DEVELOPS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM SYSTEM BUT CURRENT                    
 FEELING IS TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY MORNING AS              
 BEST FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.             
 SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT                
 APPROACHES AND HAVE PROB30 FOR TSTMS DURING THE MORNING HOURS.                 
 CDFNT MOVES EAST OF RTES AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY WITH NWLY FLOW                   
 DEVELOPING.                                                                    
 &&                                                                             
 .MARINE...ELY FLOW INCREASING ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AS              
 WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THE FRONT EXPECTED TO LIFT               
 NORTH ACROSS WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING SLY AND             
 SPEEDS CONTINUING TO INCREASE. WINDS WILL REACH SCA CONDITIONS                 
 AROUND 00Z PER THE GFS WITH THE NAM AND RUC ABOUT 3 HRS BEHIND.                
 TO PRESERVE CONTINUITY CONTINUING HEADLINES STARTING SCA AT 00Z                
 ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE SLIGHTLY SLOWER TO DEVELOP THAN GFS                         
 ADVERTISING. WINDS INCREASE FURTHER LATE TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT             
 NEARS. EXTENDED THE GALE WARNING TO INCLUDE THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS             
 WINDS WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO MIX TO THE SURFACE GIVEN THE WARM               
 GULF STREAM WATERS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST...AS OBSERVED AT 3OSE             
 NEW RIVER BUOY WITH 71F WATER TEMPS. FEELING IS BEST                           
 MIXING/STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THIS              
 ZONE...SE OF CAPE LOOKOUT...WHERE THE WATER TEMPS WILL BE WARMEST.             
 THE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE WATERS AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY WITH WLY              
 FLOW DEVELOPING. WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE MONDAY/MONDAY             
 NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT               
 BRINGING STRONG POST FRONTAL CAA WITH WINDS INCREASING TO SCA ONCE             
 AGAIN. HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY AND SHIFTS                
 OFFSHORE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.                                                  
 &&                                                                             
 .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NC...NONE.                                                                     
 MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EST           
      MONDAY NIGHT FOR AMZ130-135.                                              
      GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-             
      158.                                                                      
      SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST                   
      TUESDAY FOR AMZ150.                                                       
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SHORT TERM...FREDERICK                                                         
 LONG TERM...FREDERICK                                                          
 AVIATION...KENNEDY                                                             
 MARINE...KENNEDY                                                               
</pre> nc                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                              
 1121 AM EST SUN JAN 7 2007                                                     
 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...PRECIP IS SLOW TO MOVE NE AND NOW                
 LOOKS LIKE CSTL SITES MAY NOT SEE MUCH THIS AFTN. DID QUICK UPDATE             
 TO DECREASE POPS/QPF CST THIS AFTN AND TO RAISE TEMPS A BIT GIVEN              
 CRNT MSUNNY SKIES MANY SPOTS.                                                  
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 /ISSUED 1029 AM EST SUN JAN 7 2007/                                            
 AVIATION /15Z-18Z/...MOISTURE INCREASING FROM THE SW THIS MORNING AS           
 A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD               
 ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BRINGING A ROUND OF             
 SHOWERS WITH MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CIGS ACROSS RTES. EXPECT CIGS TO               
 IMPROVE TO VFR LATE EVENING WITH STRONG SLY FLOW AS WE ARE IN THE              
 WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS RTES                 
 MONDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND SHOWERS. WEAK           
 INSTABILITY ACROSS RTES TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WILL ALLOW FOR A            
 SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS WITH THE BEST CHANCE MONDAY MORNING WITH BEST           
 LIFT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.                                                  
 &&                                                                             
 MARINE...LIGHT E TO NELY WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING WITH             
 SEAS AROUND 3 FT. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THIS                  
 AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH STRONG SLY FLOW DEVELOPING. GFS A LITTLE                
 FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM AND DEVELOPS SCA CONDITIONS BY 00Z THIS                 
 EVENING. NAM AND RUC HOLDS OFF SCA CONDITIONS UNTIL LATER IN THE               
 EVENING. WITH CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS PACKAGE LEANING TOWARD THE GFS            
 AND WILL CONTINUE SCA HEADLINES BEGINNING AT 00Z THIS EVENING. WILL            
 LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF GALES ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS MONDAY                  
 MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. GULF STREAM WATERS ARE CLOSE TO               
 SHORE AS INDICATED BY 70F WATER TEMP AT DIAMOND BUOY AND 72F WATER             
 TEMP AT 30 SE NEW RIVER INLET WHICH SHOULD ALLOW STRONGER WINDS TO             
 MIX TO THE SURFACE. WILL CONSIDER EXTENDING THE GALES SOUTH TO THE             
 CAPE LOOKOUT TO SURF CITY ZONES FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE AND GALES            
 MAY BE POSSIBLE HERE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY SE PORTION OF THE ZONE S             
 OF CAPE LOOKOUT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 10 TO 13 FT DURING              
 THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS MONDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL              
 CROSS THE WATERS MONDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE             
 POST FRONTAL NWLY WINDS DEVELOPING. CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE ACROSS           
 THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.                                           
 &&                                                                             
 .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NC...NONE.                                                                     
 MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EST           
      MONDAY NIGHT FOR AMZ130-135-150-158.                                      
      SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST MONDAY            
      FOR AMZ152-154-156.                                                       
      GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.             
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SHORT TERM...FREDERICK                                                         
</pre> nc                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                              
 1029 AM EST SUN JAN 7 2007                                                     
 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...PRECIP CONTS TO INCREASE TO THE SW               
 WHERE ISENT LIFT IS INCREASING. THESE SHRA SHLD GRAD SPREAD NE                 
 ACROSS THE REGION...ESPCLY INLAND DURING AFTN. DELAYED ONSET OF                
 HIGHER POPS A BIT FORM PREVIOUS FCST BUT STILL EXPECT GOOD CVRG OF             
 SHRA BEFORE 00Z FOR THE INLAND COUNTIES. GIVEN COOLER LOWS THAN                
 EXPECTED LAST NIGHT AND INCREASE IN CLOUDS DROPPED HIGHS A BIT                 
 KEEPING MOST AREAS IN MID TO UPPER 60S.                                        
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION /15Z-18Z/...MOISTURE INCREASING FROM THE SW THIS MORNING             
 AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT                
 NWD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BRINGING A                  
 ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CIGS ACROSS RTES. EXPECT              
 CIGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR LATE EVENING WITH STRONG SLY FLOW AS WE ARE             
 IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS               
 RTES MONDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND                    
 SHOWERS. WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS RTES TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING               
 WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS WITH THE BEST CHANCE                   
 MONDAY MORNING WITH BEST LIFT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.                         
 &&                                                                             
 .MARINE...LIGHT E TO NELY WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING                 
 WITH SEAS AROUND 3 FT. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THIS             
 AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH STRONG SLY FLOW DEVELOPING. GFS A LITTLE                
 FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM AND DEVELOPS SCA CONDITIONS BY 00Z THIS                 
 EVENING. NAM AND RUC HOLDS OFF SCA CONDITIONS UNTIL LATER IN THE               
 EVENING. WITH CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS PACKAGE LEANING TOWARD THE                
 GFS AND WILL CONTINUE SCA HEADLINES BEGINNING AT 00Z THIS EVENING.             
 WILL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF GALES ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS MONDAY             
 MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. GULF STREAM WATERS ARE CLOSE TO               
 SHORE AS INDICATED BY 70F WATER TEMP AT DIAMOND BUOY AND 72F WATER             
 TEMP AT 30 SE NEW RIVER INLET WHICH SHOULD ALLOW STRONGER WINDS TO             
 MIX TO THE SURFACE. WILL CONSIDER EXTENDING THE GALES SOUTH TO                 
 THE CAPE LOOKOUT TO SURF CITY ZONES FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE AND              
 GALES MAY BE POSSIBLE HERE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY SE PORTION OF THE              
 ZONE S OF CAPE LOOKOUT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 10 TO 13 FT              
 DURING THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS MONDAY MORNING. THE COLD                  
 FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS MONDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON                
 WITH MODERATE POST FRONTAL NWLY WINDS DEVELOPING. CONDITIONS                   
 SLOWLY IMPROVE ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.                     
 &&                                                                             
 .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NC...NONE.                                                                     
 MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EST           
      MONDAY NIGHT FOR AMZ130-135-150-158.                                      
      SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST MONDAY            
      FOR AMZ152-154-156.                                                       
      GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.             
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SHORT TERM...FREDERICK                                                         
 AVIATION...KENNEDY                                                             
 MARINE...KENNEDY                                                               
</pre> nc                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                             
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                        
 1004 AM CST SUN JAN 7 2007                                                     
 .UPDATE...15Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED N OF              
 MN WITH TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH MN. 2-3MB/3HR PRESSURE RISES                  
 LOCATED ACROSS THE FA. CURRENT WIND SPEEDS ALONG AND W OF THE                  
 VALLEY ARE GENERALLY 20-30MPH AND EXPECT LOCATIONS E OF THE VALLEY             
 TO REACH CLOSE TO THESE VALUES BY NOON AS THE SYSTEM PROPAGATES E.             
 DO NOT EXPECT WINDS TO INTENSIFY AS 12Z RUC/NAM SHOWING PRESSURE               
 GRADIENT TO WEAKEN...AND 925-850MB WINDS DECREASING THROUGH THE                
 DAY. MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS. CLEARING              
 LINE NOW (16Z) LOCATED ALONG W EDGE OF THE VALLEY. WATER VAPOR                 
 IMAGERY SHOWS SHEAR AXIS LOCATED NEAR THIS CLEARING LINE AND 12Z               
 NAM/RUC SHOWS GOOD Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TO OVERSPREAD THE FA BY                
 THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...DO EXPECT THIS CLEARING LINE TO MAKE DECENT             
 PROGRESS E TODAY. WILL ADJUST SKY GRIDS ACCORDINGLY THUS LOWING                
 SKY COVER ALONG AND W OF THE VALLEY TODAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION                  
 BEHIND SYSTEM WILL BE STRONGEST ALONG AND W OF THE VALLEY THIS                 
 MORNING WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION SETTING UP BY AFTERNOON.                  
 THUS...AFTER INITIAL STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS DURING THE MORNING DO             
 THINK THAT TEMPS MAY RISE A FEW DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON THIS AREA.              
 E OF THE VALLEY...COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS THROUGH THE DAY...AND              
 WITH LONGER CLOUD COVER TEMPS SHOULD BE STEADY OR EVEN SLOWLY FALL             
 THROUGH THE DAY. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS ACCORDINGLY...BUT MAX T                 
 GRID CHANGED LITTLE. SHEAR AXIS PROVIDING WEAK LIFT AND SNOW IS                
 BEING REPORTED ACROSS MN...BUT REPORTS ARE SCATTERED AND                       
 LIGHT...THUS WILL LOWER POPS AND MENTION SCT SW FOR TODAY.                     
 &&                                                                             
 .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 ND...NONE.                                                                     
 MN...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 TG                                                                             
</pre> nd                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                         
 1016 PM EST MON JAN 8 2007                                                     
 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                 
 TROF CONTINUES TO APPROACH AND 18Z GFS STILL WITH THE MOST PRECIP              
 OUT OF THIS CLIPPER. NAM STILL MUCH DRIER...WITH RUC THROUGH 12Z               
 IN BETWEEN. GIVEN STILL DRY LOW LEVELS...HAVE PUSHED BACK TIMING               
 A BIT OF GREATER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE...AND TAKEN DOWN PRECIP                    
 CHANCES SLIGHTLY. LOW TEMPS LOOK GOOD.                                         
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 /ISSUED 704 PM EST MON JAN 8 2007/                                             
 AVIATION /00Z-24Z/...                                                          
 STILL VFR CONDITIONS WITH DIURNAL WIND GUSTS SUBSIDING A BIT.                  
 STILL PRETTY DRY IN LOWER LAYERS...AND AM NOT EXPECTING CIGS BELOW             
 5000 TIL AFTER ABOUT 06Z. BY 07-09Z...OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS                  
 BRINGING PERIODIC MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS...WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL                
 FOR MVFR MAINLY FROM 09-14Z. NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN ONLY ABOUT A              
 HALF INCH OF SNOW ACCUM...WITH INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO GO ALONG               
 WITH BEST LIFT. FROPA EXPECTED AT KDAY/KCVG/KLUK NEAR 14-16Z AND               
 AT KILN/KCMH/KLCK FROM 16-18Z...AFTER WHICH GUSTY WINDS TO 24KTS               
 TIL END OF PERIOD.                                                             
 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 PM EST MON JAN 8 2007/                          
 SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                                
 LATE THIS AFTERNOON CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM TO EFFECT           
 THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION WERE SLOWLY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.              
 THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A CLIPPER SYSTEM ACROSS THE REGION LATE           
 TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE. THE 12Z RUNS CONTINUED TO BE FURTHER SOUTH              
 WITH THE SYSTEM AND A BIT SLOWER. DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE PRECIPITATION           
 UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE              
 SOUTH. STILL LOOKING AT MAXIMUM ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN ONE INCH            
 TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. LIGHT SNOW WITH THE SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT WILL              
 TRANSITION TO MORE OF A SNOW SHOWER TYPE OF PRECIPITATION LATE TUE             
 MORNING AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CREATES INSTABILITIY BEHIND THE                  
 CLIPPER. LAKE EFFECT MAY CREATE SOME ENHANCEMENT OF SHOWERS AS WELL            
 ON TUE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION WED AND           
 SLIDE EAST WED NIGHT.                                                          
 TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO THE NORMALS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS           
 COMPARED TO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. USED A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET             
 FOR THE MOST PART.                                                             
 LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                         
 0Z ENSEMBLES OF THE GFS AT 180 HRS 12Z/15TH ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT              
 WITH THEMSELVES BOTH AT H5 AND THE SFC. L/W WILL BE OVER ERN 1/3 OF            
 CONUS WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN PROGGED TO BE THROUGH             
 OHVLY AT THIS TIME. ONLY 1 OR 2 RUNS STILL HAVE LIQUID QPF OVER                
 OHVLY WITH A SLOWER FROPA...1 OR 2 HAVE AN ANOMALOUS HIGH N OF NEW             
 ENGLAND. REMAINING 7 OR 8 SIMULATIONS ARE SHOWING A STRONG SFC L               
 OVER OR JUST OFF THE COAST OF ERN CANADA WITH A SWEEPING COLD FRONT            
 WELL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN              
 THE ROCKIES OR POSSIBLY LOCATED SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST IN THE MIDWEST.          
 CANADIEN ENSEMBLES ALSO SHOWING SIMILAR CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS AND           
 WITHIN ITSELF...LEADING TO A FCST WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE             
 EXTENDED.                                                                      
 GUIDANCE FROM HPC WAS GOOD THROUGH SUNDAY. DROPPED SUN NIGHT TEMPS             
 BY 5 DEG FROM HPC FCST AS CDFNT SHOULD BE WELL THROUGH OHVLY BY 12Z            
 MON. MON TEMPS WERE SUN NIGHT LOWS PLUS 2 TO 4 DEG. THIS CORRELATED            
 WELL WITH HPC FCST MINUS 5 TO 7 DEG...ALMOST EXACTLY HOW THE PREV              
 NIGHTS LOWS WERE ATTAINED. BELIEVE THAT HPC HAS TO HEDGE DUE TO                
 POSSIBLE TIMING ISSUES...WHERE I CAN GO A LITTLE COOLER WITH THE               
 STRONG THOUGHTS OF A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TRACE MON IN THE STRONG CAA              
 BEHIND FRONT. LIKE THE 60-70 POPS FOR THESE PERIODS FROM HPC.                  
 PRECIP SHOULD BRIEFLY MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW SUN. STARTED A MIX           
 IN THE NORTHWEST AND PROGRESSED IT SOUTHEAST ON SUN...WITH ALL SNOW            
 FOR ENTIRE OHVLY BY SUN OVERNIGHT. RAIN WILL BE BOTH MODERATE AND              
 CATEGORICAL WITH FROPA BUT DID NOT ENTERTAIN QUITE THAT MUCH                   
 CONFIDENCE IN POPS WITH HOW FAR OUT IN TIME IT IS.                             
 FRANKS                                                                         
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
  /ISSUED AT 1258 PM EST MON JAN 8 2006/                                        
 AVIATION /18Z-18Z/...                                                          
 LOW CLOUDS HAVE PRETTY MUCH CLEARED ALL TERMINALS WITH JUST SCT                
 CI EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. 30-35KT 850 WINDS CONTINUE TO               
 HAVE NO PROBLEM MIXING DOWN...WITH 20-30KT GUSTS EXPECTED TO                   
 CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 22Z. MAIN FORECAST ISSUE ARISES              
 AFTER 00Z AS CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO OH AND TN                     
 VALLEYS. 12Z MODELS HAVE SHIFTED MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS                  
 SYSTEM...TAKING BULK OF PRECIP INTO KY/TN. BOTH NAM AND GFS BRING              
 BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT INTO TERMINALS BTWN 00Z AND 06Z...BUT LOW                 
 LEVELS DO NOT MOISTEN UP UNTIL AFTER THIS TIME. THEREFORE ONLY                 
 WENT WITH VCSH AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER 00Z FOR ISOLD -SHSN. LOWER               
 ATMS MOISTENS UP AFTER 06Z...WHILE MIDLEVEL VORT MAX PASSES SOUTH OF           
 THE AREA. WENT AHEAD AND KEPT TEMPO -SHSN ACROSS SRN TERMINALS                 
 WHICH MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR LIGHT PRECIP              
 TOWARD 12Z TUES.                                                               
 HAWBLITZEL                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 OH...NONE.                                                                     
 KY...NONE.                                                                     
 IN...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SHORT TERM...                                                                  
</pre> oh                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH                                          
 1245 AM EST MON JAN 8 2007                                                     
 .AVIATION(06Z-06Z)...                                                          
 WIDESPREAD LIFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS THE                
 FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  CANT              
 RULE OUT A FEW BREAKS WHEN CIGS WILL LIFT TO IFR/MVFR BUT OVERALL              
 TREND WILL BE CIGS BLO 400 FT.  VSBYS ALSO HOVERING AROUND 1-2SM               
 WHEN RAINING. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE AS WELL AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS            
 AWAY INTO NEW YORK STATE OVERNIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW              
 SLOWLY...PROBABLY NOT UNTIL AFTER PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT FROM THE               
 WEST...10Z AT THE WESTERN TERMINALS AND 12-14Z FURTHER EAST. CIGS              
 WILL START TO LIFT (TO MVFR) AND WINDS WILL BCM GUSTY AFT FROPA.               
 SNOW SHOWERS MOST LIKELY NE OH/NW PA WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT                
 DURING THE MORNING THEN SUBSIDENCE SHOULD DEVELOP AND SNOW SHOWERS             
 WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS/VSBY WILL BCM VFR FROM WEST TO           
 EAST MONDAY AFTRN. WILL SEE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVE IN FROM THE WEST               
 LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT MODEL TIMING DISCREPANCIES WILL NEED TO BE              
 RESOLVED BEFORE PUTTING ANY PRECIP MENTION IN THE TAFS.                        
 &&                                                                             
 .UPDATE(TONIGHT)...                                                            
 THE LOW IS CURRENTLY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF OHIO. BEHIND THE LOW             
 THE DRY SLOT HAS MOVED INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA              
 DIMINISHING PCPN SIGNIFICANTLY. OVER THE EAST...THE HEAVIEST PCPN              
 HAS GENERALLY STAYED EAST OF THE AREA WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN .3              
 INCH FROM MT VERNON TO YOUNGSTOWN. MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS OVER AREAS              
 HIT HARD BY FLOODING FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY. SO...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE            
 FLOODING WILL BECOME AN ISSUE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY WITH THE DRY SLOT             
 CONTINUING OVER THE WEST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.                         
 TRICKY PART OF THIS UPDATE DEALS WITH PCPN TYPE. NO SNOW REPORTED              
 ANYWHERE ACROSS OHIO ATTM BUT JUST N OF THE OH/MI BORDER SNOW IS               
 BEING REPORTED. WITH THE LOW TRACKING GENERALLY FROM HTS TO ERI                
 TONIGHT...IT WOULD SEEM QUITE HARD TO HAVE ANY FREEZING/FROZEN PCPN            
 EAST AT CAK AND YNG TONIGHT. RUC AND NAM SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS IDEA           
 WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING LATE...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CHANGE ANY PCPN TO           
 SNOW. A LITTLE TRICKER WEST OF I-71. RUC SOUNDINGS AT TOLEDO SUGGEST           
 THAT A MIXTURE MAY BEGIN BY 11 PM AND THEN CHANGE OVER AFTER 2 AM.             
 HOWEVER...WITH THE LOW TRACK IT WILL BE TOUGH FOR THE COLDER AIR TO            
 MAKE IT FAR TO THE EAST. IN FACT...RUC SOUNDINGS AT 09Z AT CLE                 
 SUGGEST ALL RAIN...WITH THE NAM SHOWING A SOUNDING SUPPORTIVE OF               
 SNOW BY 11Z. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THAT THE LOW WILL BE OVER             
 LAKE ONTARIO BY 09Z WHICH SHOULD ALLOW COLD AIR TO WRAP IN PRETTY              
 QUICK BY MORNING.                                                              
 WILL THEREFORE GO WITH A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW CHANGING TO ALL              
 SNOW LATE OVER THE TOLEDO/FDY AREA. AS FOR THE CLEVELAND/MANSFIELD             
 CORRIDOR WILL GO WITH RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW LATE. AS EXPLAINED                 
 ABOVE...WILL GO WITH AN ALL LIQUID FORECAST FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST           
 OF A CLEVELAND TO WOOSTER LINE...ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW FLAKES MAY MIX            
 IN LATE TOWARD 11Z EVEN IN THAT REGION AS THE COLD AIR SPILLS IN.              
 POPS ARE TRICKY TONIGHT. WITH THE DRY SLOT THERE IS A LULL IN PCPN             
 OVER THE WEST. AM THINKING THERE WILL BE DRY PERIODS FOR THE ENTIRE            
 REGION TONIGHT BEFORE THE WRAP AROUND PCPN MOVES IN. FOR NOW...WILL            
 NOT GET TO WORDY AND CONTINUE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS WITH `PERIODS              
 OF` WORDING FOR THE NIGHT.                                                     
 ALSO...WITH THE GROUND WARM AND DOUBT THAT IT WILL SNOW THAT HARD              
 ANYWHERE...HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION FOR ALL             
 AREAS WITH SNOW MENTIONED...EXCEPT THE TOL GROUP WHERE LOCAL ACCUMS            
 LESS THAN AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE.                                                
 ANOTHER MINOR CHANGE WILL BE TO INCLUDE A BRIEF MENTION OF RAIN FOR            
 THE SNOWBELT EARLY MON MORNING. NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT SOME RAIN           
 COULD STILL BE MIXING IN AT 12Z.                                               
 WILL RAISE TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES TONIGHT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS              
 AND HIGH DWPTS EAST.                                                           
 UPDATE OUT BY 930 PM.                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                       
 NICE JET ALOFT AND MOISTURE PLUM FROM PINEAPPLE EXPRESS FEEDING RAIN           
 SPREADING INTO AREA.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS.               
 MODELS TAKE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED CENTRAL KY TO NEAR KYNG BY             
 06Z AND OVER LAKE ONTARIO BY 12Z MONDAY.  FOR TONIGHT RAIN SPREADING           
 OVER ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF LOW.                                        
 CONCERNED ABOUT POTENTIAL FLOODING.  THE RIVER FORECAST CENTER FLASH           
 FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR SE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WAS 1-1.5 INCHES            
 FOR 1 OR 3 HOURS...BUT FELT 3/4 OF AN INCH WAS A BETTER RULER                  
 TONIGHT AS SATURATED AS GROUND IS.                                             
 MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH QPF GIVING NW OHIO ABOUT A                 
 QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN BETWEEN NOW AND MIDNIGHT...AND ABOUT 3/4            
 OF AN INCH NEAR STARK AND HOLMES COUNTY.  SINCE SE FORECAST AREA               
 RECEIVED LEAST AMOUNT OR RAIN SHOULD NOT NEED ANY FLOOD WATCH                  
 TONIGHT.                                                                       
 AS LOW MOVES NE OF AREA WITH SEE A GRADUAL CHANGE OF RAIN TO SNOW              
 FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT.  TEMPS/DWPTS IN THE MID 30S ACROSS NW OH              
 WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN TOLEDO                       
 AREA...WHILE IN THE EAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE STEADY           
 OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS LOW MOVES NE.  EXPECT               
 ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW OVERNIGHT IN THE TOLEDO AREA.  WHILE IN NW PA            
 LITTLE OR NONE AS THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WONT HAPPEN TIL THE                  
 MORNING RUSH HOUR.  DO EXPECT SNOW BELT TO PICK UP 1-3 INCHES                  
 TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE.                                  
 ALBERTA CLIPPER SWINGS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT              
 INTO TUESDAY MORNING DROPPING A QUICK INCH OR SO.  THEN EXPECT LAKE            
 EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP IN THE SNOW BELT LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY              
 NIGHT.                                                                         
 &&                                                                             
 .LONG TERM (WED THROUGH SUNDAY)                                                
 GFS/ECMWF/DGEX IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A MID WEEK WARM UP AS A LARGE            
 SFC RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES.  HIGH                  
 EVENTUALLY MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT.                            
 THIS IS WHERE THE MODELS DIVERGE.  TREND IS FOR AN AMPLIFYING WEST             
 COAST RIDGE AND A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER ERN US.  AT THE SFC A SLOW             
 MOVING COLD FRONT SLIDES SE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  BY 12Z SATURDAY           
 HPC HAS FRONT STALLED SW TO NE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  I                    
 PREFERRED THE SOLUTION OF THE ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ECMWF WITH WAS                 
 SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE FRONT.  HOWEVER YOU SLICE IT NEXT WEEKEND             
 LOOKS WET AND COOLER...WITH THE FRONT EVENTUALLY STALLING ACROSS THE           
 AREA...THEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDDING ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE           
 AREA INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.   SINCE THE MODELS HAVE NOT HAD A           
 GOOD HANDLE ON THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEMS NEXT WEEKEND...EVEN THE RUN           
 TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN POOR THE LAST 2 DAYS...WENT WITH                   
 CONTINUITY AND KEPT CHC POPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND.                       
 &&                                                                             
 .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 OH...VARIOUS RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS N CENTRAL AND NW OHIO. GALE                  
 WARNING LERI.                                                                  
 PA...GALE WARNING LERI.                                                        
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 UPDATE...MRD                                                                   
 SHORT TERM...DJB                                                               
 LONG TERM...DJB                                                                
 AVIATION...LEINS/KOSARIK                                                       
</pre> oh                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH                                          
 830 PM EST SUN JAN 7 2007                                                      
 .UPDATE(TONIGHT)...                                                            
 THE LOW IS CURRENTLY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF OHIO. BEHIND THE LOW             
 THE DRY SLOT HAS MOVED INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA              
 DIMINISHING PCPN SIGNIFICANTLY. OVER THE EAST...THE HEAVIEST PCPN              
 HAS GENERALLY STAYED EAST OF THE AREA WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN .3              
 INCH FROM MT VERNON TO YOUNGSTOWN. MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS OVER AREAS              
 HIT HARD BY FLOODING FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY. SO...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE            
 FLOODING WILL BECOME AN ISSUE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY WITH THE DRY SLOT             
 CONTINUING OVER THE WEST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.                         
 TRICKY PART OF THIS UPDATE DEALS WITH PCPN TYPE. NO SNOW REPORTED              
 ANYWHERE ACROSS OHIO ATTM BUT JUST N OF THE OH/MI BORDER SNOW IS               
 BEING REPORTED. WITH THE LOW TRACKING GENERALLY FROM HTS TO ERI                
 TONIGHT...IT WOULD SEEM QUITE HARD TO HAVE ANY FREEZING/FROZEN PCPN            
 EAST AT CAK AND YNG TONIGHT. RUC AND NAM SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS IDEA           
 WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING LATE...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CHANGE ANY PCPN TO           
 SNOW. A LITTLE TRICKER WEST OF I-71. RUC SOUNDINGS AT TOLEDO SUGGEST           
 THAT A MIXTURE MAY BEGIN BY 11 PM AND THEN CHANGE OVER AFTER 2 AM.             
 HOWEVER...WITH THE LOW TRACK IT WILL BE TOUGH FOR THE COLDER AIR TO            
 MAKE IT FAR TO THE EAST. IN FACT...RUC SOUNDINGS AT 09Z AT CLE                 
 SUGGEST ALL RAIN...WITH THE NAM SHOWING A SOUNDING SUPPORTIVE OF               
 SNOW BY 11Z. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THAT THE LOW WILL BE OVER             
 LAKE ONTARIO BY 09Z WHICH SHOULD ALLOW COLD AIR TO WRAP IN PRETTY              
 QUICK BY MORNING.                                                              
 WILL THEREFORE GO WITH A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW CHANGING TO ALL              
 SNOW LATE OVER THE TOLEDO/FDY AREA. AS FOR THE CLEVELAND/MANSFIELD             
 CORRIDOR WILL GO WITH RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW LATE. AS EXPLAINED                 
 ABOVE...WILL GO WITH AN ALL LIQUID FORECAST FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST           
 OF A CLEVELAND TO WOOSTER LINE...ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW FLAKES MAY MIX            
 IN LATE TOWARD 11Z EVEN IN THAT REGION AS THE COLD AIR SPILLS IN.              
 POPS ARE TRICKY TONIGHT. WITH THE DRY SLOT THERE IS A LULL IN PCPN             
 OVER THE WEST. AM THINKING THERE WILL BE DRY PERIODS FOR THE ENTIRE            
 REGION TONIGHT BEFORE THE WRAP AROUND PCPN MOVES IN. FOR NOW...WILL            
 NOT GET TO WORDY AND CONTINUE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS WITH `PERIODS              
 OF` WORDING FOR THE NIGHT.                                                     
 ALSO...WITH THE GROUND WARM AND DOUBT THAT IT WILL SNOW THAT HARD              
 ANYWHERE...HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION FOR ALL             
 AREAS WITH SNOW MENTIONED...EXCEPT THE TOL GROUP WHERE LOCAL ACCUMS            
 LESS THAN AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE.                                                
 ANOTHER MINOR CHANGE WILL BE TO INCLUDE A BRIEF MENTION OF RAIN FOR            
 THE SNOWBELT EARLY MON MORNING. NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT SOME RAIN           
 COULD STILL BE MIXING IN AT 12Z.                                               
 WILL RAISE TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES TONIGHT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS              
 AND HIGH DWPTS EAST.                                                           
 UPDATE OUT BY 930 PM.                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION(00Z-00Z)...                                                          
 LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO             
 TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND EVENTUALLY INTO SW NY           
 AFTER MIDNIGHT.  HEAVIEST RAIN WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS THE              
 LOW PULLS AWAY BUT WILL SEE WRAP AROUND RAIN/SNOW MOVE IN LATER                
 TONIGHT.  THINK CIGS WILL BE THE PRIMARY PROBLEM ON THE BACKSIDE OF            
 THE LOW AND BROUGHT ALL SITES DOWN TO IFR BY LATE EVENING.  COULD              
 ALSO SEE SOME PERIODS OF REDUCED VSBYS WITHIN THE WRAP AROUND                  
 SHOWERS AND HAVE INDICATED THIS WITH A FEW HOURS OF 2SM -SHSN.                 
 TOMORROW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING              
 ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN THE WESTERN                 
 TERMINALS.  ALL SITES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE IN THE DAY.                  
 SHOULD ALSO NOTE THAT IT WILL BE QUITE WINDY TOMORROW DURING THE               
 DAY.  BUFR DATA INDICATING 20KTS SUSTAINED WITH HIGHER GUSTS...WILL            
 LIKELY START BY MID MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE IN THE                    
 DAY...EVENTUALLY WEAKENING AFTER THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.               
 &&                                                                             
 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                       
 NICE JET ALOFT AND MOISTURE PLUM FROM PINEAPPLE EXPRESS FEEDING RAIN           
 SPREADING INTO AREA.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS.               
 MODELS TAKE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED CENTRAL KY TO NEAR KYNG BY             
 06Z AND OVER LAKE ONTARIO BY 12Z MONDAY.  FOR TONIGHT RAIN SPREADING           
 OVER ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF LOW.                                        
 CONCERNED ABOUT POTENTIAL FLOODING.  THE RIVER FORECAST CENTER FLASH           
 FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR SE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WAS 1-1.5 INCHES            
 FOR 1 OR 3 HOURS...BUT FELT 3/4 OF AN INCH WAS A BETTER RULER                  
 TONIGHT AS SATURATED AS GROUND IS.                                             
 MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH QPF GIVING NW OHIO ABOUT A                 
 QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN BETWEEN NOW AND MIDNIGHT...AND ABOUT 3/4            
 OF AN INCH NEAR STARK AND HOLMES COUNTY.  SINCE SE FORECAST AREA               
 RECEIVED LEAST AMOUNT OR RAIN SHOULD NOT NEED ANY FLOOD WATCH                  
 TONIGHT.                                                                       
 AS LOW MOVES NE OF AREA WITH SEE A GRADUAL CHANGE OF RAIN TO SNOW              
 FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT.  TEMPS/DWPTS IN THE MID 30S ACROSS NW OH              
 WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN TOLEDO                       
 AREA...WHILE IN THE EAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE STEADY           
 OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS LOW MOVES NE.  EXPECT               
 ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW OVERNIGHT IN THE TOLEDO AREA.  WHILE IN NW PA            
 LITTLE OR NONE AS THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WONT HAPPEN TIL THE                  
 MORNING RUSH HOUR.  DO EXPECT SNOW BELT TO PICK UP 1-3 INCHES                  
 TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE.                                  
 ALBERTA CLIPPER SWINGS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT              
 INTO TUESDAY MORNING DROPPING A QUICK INCH OR SO.  THEN EXPECT LAKE            
 EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP IN THE SNOW BELT LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY              
 NIGHT.                                                                         
 &&                                                                             
 .LONG TERM (WED THROUGH SUNDAY)                                                
 GFS/ECMWF/DGEX IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A MID WEEK WARM UP AS A LARGE            
 SFC RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES.  HIGH                  
 EVENTUALLY MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT.                            
 THIS IS WHERE THE MODELS DIVERGE.  TREND IS FOR AN AMPLIFYING WEST             
 COAST RIDGE AND A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER ERN US.  AT THE SFC A SLOW             
 MOVING COLD FRONT SLIDES SE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  BY 12Z SATURDAY           
 HPC HAS FRONT STALLED SW TO NE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  I                    
 PREFERRED THE SOLUTION OF THE ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ECMWF WITH WAS                 
 SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE FRONT.  HOWEVER YOU SLICE IT NEXT WEEKEND             
 LOOKS WET AND COOLER...WITH THE FRONT EVENTUALLY STALLING ACROSS THE           
 AREA...THEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDDING ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE           
 AREA INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.   SINCE THE MODELS HAVE NOT HAD A           
 GOOD HANDLE ON THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEMS NEXT WEEKEND...EVEN THE RUN           
 TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN POOR THE LAST 2 DAYS...WENT WITH                   
 CONTINUITY AND KEPT CHC POPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND.                       
 &&                                                                             
 .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 OH...VARIOUS RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS N CENTRAL AND NW OHIO.                       
 PA...NONE.                                                                     
 LE...GALE WARNING.                                                             
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 UPDATE...MRD                                                                   
 SHORT TERM...DJB                                                               
 LONG TERM...DJB                                                                
 AVIATION...LEINS                                                               
</pre> oh                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                             
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                         
 1259 PM EST SUN JAN 7 2007                                                     
 .AVIATION /18Z-18Z/...                                                         
 RAIN WILL CONTINUE SPREADING ACORSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH               
 CEILINGS DROPPING TO IFR OR LIFR AFTER 00Z. THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY             
 AT TIMES WITH VISIBILITIES MVFR OR IFR. AS THE WARM FRONT OVER THE             
 SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES LIFTS NORTH THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO                
 THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTHEAST VIRIGNIA INTO NORTHERN AND                
 CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON                  
 MONDAY MORNING WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND RAIN WILL END IN               
 THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. VISIBILITES WILL RECOVER TO VFR BY                 
 AFTERNOON AT ROA...LYH AND DAN WITH MVFR CEILINGS. IN THE                      
 MOUNTAINS SHOWERS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MVFR THROUGH 18Z.                       
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 /ISSUED 1100 AM EST SUN JAN 7 2007/                                            
 SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
 APPROACHING SYSTEM REAMINS ON TRACK WITH LEADING SHORT WAVE IN MOVING          
 INTO THE WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY. RAIN NOW SPREADING INTO                     
 THE SOUTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA AND RUC SPREAD THE RAIN WELL                 
 ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 18-21Z THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN NORTH             
 OF THE WARM FRONT TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS ARE RISING. MADE                 
 SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON TO               
 ACCOUNT FOR THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. NO                
 CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.                            
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 636 AM EST SUN JAN 7 2007/                                             
 AVIATION /12Z-12Z/...                                                          
 PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION (BELOW) DETAILS THE SITUATION WELL.               
 COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WITH A WIND SHIFT TO                
 THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AND BECOMING GUSTY. RAIN ENDS AND CIGS AND                  
 VSBYS SHUD THEN IMPROVE SOMEWHAT BUT MOST STILL MVFR CATEGORY AND              
 POSSIBLY IFR WITH LINGERING LIGHT RAIN AT BLF THRU 12Z.                        
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 322 AM EST SUN JAN 7 2007/                                             
 SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                          
 VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ON THE GULF COAST THIS                  
 MORNING AS ENERGY DROPS THRU TEXAS. PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTR                   
 EXTENDING BACK TO THE PACIFIC IS BEING TAPPED AS THE GULF OF                   
 MEXICO ALSO BEGINS TO OPEN UP. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL APPROACH                
 1.5 INCHES OVER THE FCST AREA THIS EVENING AS STRONG                           
 FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING DEVELOPS INTRODUCING THE THREAT CONVECTIVE             
 ELEMENTS ADND HEAVY RAIN. SOIL CONDITIONS ARE NEARLY SATURATED                 
 ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND MANY RIVERS ARE ALREADY RUNNING HIGHER                
 THAN NORMAL THANKS TO ABUNDANT RAIN OVER THE PAST WEEK...ESP IN THE            
 DAN RIVER BASIN. FLOOD WATCH WILL BE EXPANDED TO ALL AREAS EXCEPT              
 SE WEST VIRGINIA FOR TONIGHT. AS FRONTAL BNDRY TO OUR SOUTH LIFTS              
 NORTH THIS EVENING INTO OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...UNSTABLE               
 AIR AND STRONG SHEAR IN THE LOW LEVELS COULD RESULT IN SOME STRONG             
 TO SEVERE TSTMS.                                                               
 SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES EAST BY EARLY MONDAY WITH COLDER AIR POISED               
 TO PUSH INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. SOME SNOW SHOWER                
 ACTIVITY IS LIKELY OVER THE HIGH ELEVATIONS BUT ACCUMS SHUD BE                 
 LIGHT AS BNDRY LAYER TEMPS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO ALLOW SNOW TO                
 STICK. HOWEVER A CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN                
 PLAINS WILL HELP KEEP THE EASTERN TROF IN PLACE AND BRING A                    
 REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR TO THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY                 
 NIGHT. SNOWFALL ASSOC WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE HEAVIER AND MORE               
 WIDESPREAD FOR THE WESTERN MTNS. SOME SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS LOOK                  
 POSSIBLE FOR FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN                   
 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY CONDITIONS BACK TO THE AREA.                   
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 1248 AM EST SUN JAN 7 2007/                                            
 AVIATION /06Z-06Z/...                                                          
 BROAD SFC HIGH ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY AT 05Z WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE              
 EAST ACRS THE REGION...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE MOST             
 SPOTS OVERNIGHT. CURRENT STRATOCU DECK ACRS SOUTHEAST WEST                     
 VIRGINIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS MOISTURE SHALLOWS...                   
 HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO WATCH AS MOISTURE MAY GET SQUEEZED UNDER                  
 LOWERING INVERSION WITH SOME CLOUDS PERSISTING. OTHERWISE ALL EYES             
 TURN TO DEVELOPING WAVE ALONG SFC FRONT OVR THE SOUTHEAST THIS                 
 MORNING IN RESPONSE TO UPR WAVE KICKING EAST THRU THE SOUTHERN                 
 PLAINS. IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS LATER              
 THIS MORNING...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A VFR LOW CLOUD DECK                    
 DEVELOPING ACRS THE AREA. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE THEN                   
 EXPECTED TO LOWER QUICKLY BY LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING AS                    
 PRECIPITATION BEGINS WITH NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF WARM FRONT. EXPECT              
 TO SEE IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS FOR ALL AREAS BY 00Z TONIGHT...WITH             
 POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF QUITE LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES GIVEN               
 DEEP MOISTURE POOLING JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. WIND SHEAR A               
 CONCERN LATER TONIGHT AS WELL DESPITE SOMEWHAT BREEZY LOW LEVEL                
 FLOW GIVEN VERY STRONG JET ALOFT. IN ADDITION...WILL HAVE TO WATCH             
 FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE WARM SECTOR TONIGHT               
 AS WARM FRONT BLOWS NORTH THRU THE PIEDMONT...WITH WINDS LIKELY                
 BECOMING QUITE GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH IN THESE AREAS. EXPECTING IFR              
 CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THRU THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.                  
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 913 PM EST SAT JAN 6 2007/                                             
 SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/... QUIET EVENING...THE QUIET B4 THE               
 STORM. THE ONLY TWEAKS TO THE ZFP ATTM IS TO CUT BACK ON THE                   
 DRIZZLE IN THE WEST. WENT WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE INSTEAD OF PERIODS               
 OF DRIZZLE. HIGH CLOUD BASES DO NOT SUPPORT THAT MUCH DRIZZLE                  
 EXCEPT MAYBE THE VERY HIGHEST ELV.                                             
 REMAINDER OF THE FCST UNCHANGED.                                               
 SET A FEW TEMPERATURE RECORDS TODAY. THE 60 DEGREE TMAX IN BCB                 
 CLIPPED THE OLD RECORD OF 59 FROM A DECADE AGO. A RECORD MAX TMIN              
 IS POSSIBLE AT BOTH BCB AND ROA... AS LONG AS TEMPS DO NOT FALL                
 BELOW 44 DEG OR 55 DEG RESPECTIVELY B4 MIDNIGHT.                               
 AVIATION /00Z-24Z/...                                                          
 BKN/OVC HIGH MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED AT BLF/LWB EARLY THIS                        
 EVENING...TRANSITIONING TO IFR AT BLF TOWARD DAWN. EXPECT VFR                  
 CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDDAY FOR THE OTHER TAF SITES. RAIN WILL                   
 MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING MAINLY MVFR                   
 TO ALL SITES...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS TOWARD THE END OF                
 THE PERIOD.                                                                    
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 245 PM EST SAT JAN 6 2007/                                             
 SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...                                   
 500 MB TROF WILL IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT AND               
 SUNDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WATER VAPOR LOOP               
 SHOWS SHORT WAVE OVER NEW MEXICO THAT WILL BE PICKED UP BY THE                 
 DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROF. THIS UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL PROVIDE              
 STRONG DYNAMICS OVER THE COUNTY WARNING AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.            
 ONCE THE DEEP UPPER TROF IS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...A                 
 CLIPPER WILL PUSH THE TROF AXIS THROUGH THE COUNTY WARNING AREA ON             
 TUESDAY.                                                                       
 ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS TO              
 FILL IN CLOUDS AGAIN. WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAV GUIDANCE...TOWARD                
 WARMER NUMBERS FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES.                                       
 GFS IS ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER WITH THE SOME PARAMETERS THAN THE NAM.             
 BUT BOTH INDICATE STRONG Q-V FORCING AND SOME NEGATIVE EQUIVALENT              
 POTENTIAL VORTICITY ALIGNED ABOVE THE FRONTOGENESIS WHENEVER THE               
 LIFT COMES THROUGH THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. THE LOW LEVEL JET                  
 INCREASES TO 55 TO 65 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE TROF...BRINGING IN                    
 UNSEASONABLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS...AROUND 1.1 INCHES AND           
 850 MB DEW POINTS IN THE +8 TO +10 RANGE AND PROVIDING GOOD                    
 ISENTROPIC LIFT BY 18Z AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENT.                          
 MODELS SHOWING TWO MAIN BATCHES OF PRECIPITATION. ONE FROM SUNDAY              
 AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND             
 WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THE OTHER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE IMPRESSIVE              
 DYNAMICS.                                                                      
 THIS SCENARIO HAS MANY ELEMENTS OF THE STRONG DYNAMICS/UPSLOPE CASES           
 DOCUMENTED IN OUR FORECAST OFFICE COOL SEASON HEAVY RAIN                       
 CLIMATOLOGY. SO WILL ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR SUNDAY EVENING INTO               
 MONDAY ACROSS THE DAN RIVER BASIN. WITH BASIN AVERAGE 1 TO 1.5                 
 INCHES EXPECTED THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT RESPONSE FROM THE RIVERS.             
 LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                         
 THERE WILL BE GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY.              
 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP 10 TO 15 DEGREES IN 12 HOURS WITH +5 TO +7            
 MB PRESSURE RISES. GRIDS ALREADY REFLECT GUSTY WINDS ON MONDAY.                
 TEMPERATURES DROP OFF FAST ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE                  
 BRIEFLY TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA.            
 BUT EVEN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CLEARS OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY             
 MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST MONDAY              
 NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND                  
 WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH CENTER REACH COAST AND                
 SOUTHWEST FLOW KICKS IN. HEIGHTS RISE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. FOR           
 THE MEDIUM RANGE FOLLOWED HPCGUIDE WHICH WAS A BLEND OF THE                    
 ECMWF/NCEP MEAN/GSP.                                                           
 &&                                                                             
 .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING             
      FOR VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.                       
 NC...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING             
      FOR NCZ001>006-018>020.                                                   
 WV...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 AVIATION...AMS                                                                 
</pre> va                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                             
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                         
 1100 AM EST SUN JAN 7 2007                                                     
 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                 
 APPROACHING SYSTEM REAMINS ON TRACK WITH LEADING SHORT WAVE IN MOVING          
 INTO THE WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY. RAIN NOW SPREADING INTO                     
 THE SOUTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA AND RUC SPREAD THE RAIN WELL                 
 ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 18-21Z THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN NORTH             
 OF THE WARM FRONT TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS ARE RISING. MADE                 
 SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON TO               
 ACCOUNT FOR THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. NO                
 CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.                            
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 /ISSUED 636 AM EST SUN JAN 7 2007/                                             
 AVIATION /12Z-12Z/...                                                          
 PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION (BELOW) DETAILS THE SITUATION WELL.               
 COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WITH A WIND SHIFT TO                
 THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AND BECOMING GUSTY. RAIN ENDS AND CIGS AND                  
 VSBYS SHUD THEN IMPROVE SOMEWHAT BUT MOST STILL MVFR CATEGORY AND              
 POSSIBLY IFR WITH LINGERING LIGHT RAIN AT BLF THRU 12Z.                        
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 322 AM EST SUN JAN 7 2007/                                             
 SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                          
 VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ON THE GULF COAST THIS                  
 MORNING AS ENERGY DROPS THRU TEXAS. PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTR                   
 EXTENDING BACK TO THE PACIFIC IS BEING TAPPED AS THE GULF OF                   
 MEXICO ALSO BEGINS TO OPEN UP. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL APPROACH                
 1.5 INCHES OVER THE FCST AREA THIS EVENING AS STRONG                           
 FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING DEVELOPS INTRODUCING THE THREAT CONVECTIVE             
 ELEMENTS ADND HEAVY RAIN. SOIL CONDITIONS ARE NEARLY SATURATED                 
 ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND MANY RIVERS ARE ALREADY RUNNING HIGHER                
 THAN NORMAL THANKS TO ABUNDANT RAIN OVER THE PAST WEEK...ESP IN THE            
 DAN RIVER BASIN. FLOOD WATCH WILL BE EXPANDED TO ALL AREAS EXCEPT              
 SE WEST VIRGINIA FOR TONIGHT. AS FRONTAL BNDRY TO OUR SOUTH LIFTS              
 NORTH THIS EVENING INTO OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...UNSTABLE               
 AIR AND STRONG SHEAR IN THE LOW LEVELS COULD RESULT IN SOME STRONG             
 TO SEVERE TSTMS.                                                               
 SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES EAST BY EARLY MONDAY WITH COLDER AIR POISED               
 TO PUSH INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. SOME SNOW SHOWER                
 ACTIVITY IS LIKELY OVER THE HIGH ELEVATIONS BUT ACCUMS SHUD BE                 
 LIGHT AS BNDRY LAYER TEMPS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO ALLOW SNOW TO                
 STICK. HOWEVER A CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN                
 PLAINS WILL HELP KEEP THE EASTERN TROF IN PLACE AND BRING A                    
 REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR TO THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY                 
 NIGHT. SNOWFALL ASSOC WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE HEAVIER AND MORE               
 WIDESPREAD FOR THE WESTERN MTNS. SOME SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS LOOK                  
 POSSIBLE FOR FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN                   
 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY CONDITIONS BACK TO THE AREA.                   
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 1248 AM EST SUN JAN 7 2007/                                            
 AVIATION /06Z-06Z/...                                                          
 BROAD SFC HIGH ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY AT 05Z WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE              
 EAST ACRS THE REGION...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE MOST             
 SPOTS OVERNIGHT. CURRENT STRATOCU DECK ACRS SOUTHEAST WEST                     
 VIRGINIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS MOISTURE SHALLOWS...                   
 HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO WATCH AS MOISTURE MAY GET SQUEEZED UNDER                  
 LOWERING INVERSION WITH SOME CLOUDS PERSISTING. OTHERWISE ALL EYES             
 TURN TO DEVELOPING WAVE ALONG SFC FRONT OVR THE SOUTHEAST THIS                 
 MORNING IN RESPONSE TO UPR WAVE KICKING EAST THRU THE SOUTHERN                 
 PLAINS. IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS LATER              
 THIS MORNING...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A VFR LOW CLOUD DECK                    
 DEVELOPING ACRS THE AREA. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE THEN                   
 EXPECTED TO LOWER QUICKLY BY LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING AS                    
 PRECIPITATION BEGINS WITH NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF WARM FRONT. EXPECT              
 TO SEE IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS FOR ALL AREAS BY 00Z TONIGHT...WITH             
 POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF QUITE LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES GIVEN               
 DEEP MOISTURE POOLING JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. WIND SHEAR A               
 CONCERN LATER TONIGHT AS WELL DESPITE SOMEWHAT BREEZY LOW LEVEL                
 FLOW GIVEN VERY STRONG JET ALOFT. IN ADDITION...WILL HAVE TO WATCH             
 FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE WARM SECTOR TONIGHT               
 AS WARM FRONT BLOWS NORTH THRU THE PIEDMONT...WITH WINDS LIKELY                
 BECOMING QUITE GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH IN THESE AREAS. EXPECTING IFR              
 CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THRU THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.                  
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 913 PM EST SAT JAN 6 2007/                                             
 SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/... QUIET EVENING...THE QUIET B4 THE               
 STORM. THE ONLY TWEAKS TO THE ZFP ATTM IS TO CUT BACK ON THE                   
 DRIZZLE IN THE WEST. WENT WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE INSTEAD OF PERIODS               
 OF DRIZZLE. HIGH CLOUD BASES DO NOT SUPPORT THAT MUCH DRIZZLE                  
 EXCEPT MAYBE THE VERY HIGHEST ELV.                                             
 REMAINDER OF THE FCST UNCHANGED.                                               
 SET A FEW TEMPERATURE RECORDS TODAY. THE 60 DEGREE TMAX IN BCB                 
 CLIPPED THE OLD RECORD OF 59 FROM A DECADE AGO. A RECORD MAX TMIN              
 IS POSSIBLE AT BOTH BCB AND ROA... AS LONG AS TEMPS DO NOT FALL                
 BELOW 44 DEG OR 55 DEG RESPECTIVELY B4 MIDNIGHT.                               
 AVIATION /00Z-24Z/...                                                          
 BKN/OVC HIGH MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED AT BLF/LWB EARLY THIS                        
 EVENING...TRANSITIONING TO IFR AT BLF TOWARD DAWN. EXPECT VFR                  
 CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDDAY FOR THE OTHER TAF SITES. RAIN WILL                   
 MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING MAINLY MVFR                   
 TO ALL SITES...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS TOWARD THE END OF                
 THE PERIOD.                                                                    
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 245 PM EST SAT JAN 6 2007/                                             
 SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...                                   
 500 MB TROF WILL IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT AND               
 SUNDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WATER VAPOR LOOP               
 SHOWS SHORT WAVE OVER NEW MEXICO THAT WILL BE PICKED UP BY THE                 
 DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROF. THIS UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL PROVIDE              
 STRONG DYNAMICS OVER THE COUNTY WARNING AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.            
 ONCE THE DEEP UPPER TROF IS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...A                 
 CLIPPER WILL PUSH THE TROF AXIS THROUGH THE COUNTY WARNING AREA ON             
 TUESDAY.                                                                       
 ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS TO              
 FILL IN CLOUDS AGAIN. WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAV GUIDANCE...TOWARD                
 WARMER NUMBERS FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES.                                       
 GFS IS ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER WITH THE SOME PARAMETERS THAN THE NAM.             
 BUT BOTH INDICATE STRONG Q-V FORCING AND SOME NEGATIVE EQUIVALENT              
 POTENTIAL VORTICITY ALIGNED ABOVE THE FRONTOGENESIS WHENEVER THE               
 LIFT COMES THROUGH THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. THE LOW LEVEL JET                  
 INCREASES TO 55 TO 65 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE TROF...BRINGING IN                    
 UNSEASONABLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS...AROUND 1.1 INCHES AND           
 850 MB DEW POINTS IN THE +8 TO +10 RANGE AND PROVIDING GOOD                    
 ISENTROPIC LIFT BY 18Z AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENT.                          
 MODELS SHOWING TWO MAIN BATCHES OF PRECIPITATION. ONE FROM SUNDAY              
 AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND             
 WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THE OTHER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE IMPRESSIVE              
 DYNAMICS.                                                                      
 THIS SCENARIO HAS MANY ELEMENTS OF THE STRONG DYNAMICS/UPSLOPE CASES           
 DOCUMENTED IN OUR FORECAST OFFICE COOL SEASON HEAVY RAIN                       
 CLIMATOLOGY. SO WILL ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR SUNDAY EVENING INTO               
 MONDAY ACROSS THE DAN RIVER BASIN. WITH BASIN AVERAGE 1 TO 1.5                 
 INCHES EXPECTED THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT RESPONSE FROM THE RIVERS.             
 LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                         
 THERE WILL BE GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY.              
 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP 10 TO 15 DEGREES IN 12 HOURS WITH +5 TO +7            
 MB PRESSURE RISES. GRIDS ALREADY REFLECT GUSTY WINDS ON MONDAY.                
 TEMPERATURES DROP OFF FAST ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE                  
 BRIEFLY TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA.            
 BUT EVEN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CLEARS OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY             
 MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST MONDAY              
 NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND                  
 WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH CENTER REACH COAST AND                
 SOUTHWEST FLOW KICKS IN. HEIGHTS RISE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. FOR           
 THE MEDIUM RANGE FOLLOWED HPCGUIDE WHICH WAS A BLEND OF THE                    
 ECMWF/NCEP MEAN/GSP.                                                           
 &&                                                                             
 .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING             
      FOR VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.                       
 NC...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING             
      FOR NCZ001>006-018>020.                                                   
 WV...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 UPDATE...                                                                      
 SHORT TERM...AMS                                                               
</pre> va                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                          
 1045 AM CST MON JAN 8 2007                                                     
 .UPDATED...                                                                    
 THE MODELS HAD BEEN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS            
 WITH THE PROGRESS AND TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING                  
 THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY...AND THEN ACROSS THE MID                    
 MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW WAS EXPECTED TO              
 DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MOSTLY              
 EXITING TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THE 12Z RUNS HOLD BACK ON             
 THE LIGHT SNOW NOW HOWEVER...MOVING IT INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. IN             
 ADDITION...THE NAM BRINGS THE MAIN LIGHT BAND ACROSS THE FORECAST              
 AREA...WHILE THE GFS IS SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. IN BOTH MODELS...WHAT           
 QG CONVERGENCE IS PROGGED IS TO THE SOUTHWEST...WITH LITTLE IF ANY             
 2-D FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE. LATEST SFC OBS AND 88-D IMAGERY DO HAVE            
 SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS CLIPPER-TYPE SHORTWAVE...ACROSS SOUTHERN             
 CANADA AND ND. THE RUC QPF IS SIMILAR IN TIMING...BUT LEANS MORE               
 TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GFS SOLUTION. BOTTOM LINE...THERE STILL LOOKS              
 LIKE A PRETTY GOOD SHOT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW/LOW QPF TO AFFECT PARTS            
 OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT MAINLY TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE            
 SUNSHINE TODAY ALSO. WILL ADJUST THE ONGOING FORECAST TO MOVE ALL              
 THE POPS TO TONIGHT...AND ACCOUNT FOR A SLOWER INCREASE IN THE CLOUD           
 COVER.                                                                         
 &&                                                                             
 .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 WI...NONE.                                                                     
 MN...NONE.                                                                     
 IA...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 RIECK                                                                          
</pre> wi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                 
 403 AM CST SUN JAN 7 2007                                                      
 .DISCUSSION...FCST FOCUS IS ON HANDLING OF POPS WITH TWO SEPERATE              
 SYSTEMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.                                          
 WATER VAPOR/RUC ANIMATION SHOWS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE              
 DAKOTAS WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING OUT AHEAD OF IT OVER MKX CWA.                  
 MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MRNG.                             
 A FEW FAVORABLE FACTRORS FOR ISOLD TO SCT MEASUREABLE PCPN COMING              
 INTO PLAY FOR LATER THIS AFTN AND THIS EVE. IN THE UPPER                       
 LEVELS...WITH A STG UPR JET SHIFTING INTO OH VLY THERE IS A                    
 CYCLONIC SHEAR ZONE VCNTY SE WI WHERE MODELS DVLP POCKET OF DECENT             
 UPR DVRG. THIS DVRG NOT WITHIN THE NORMALLY OBSERVED LFQ OR RRQ OF             
 JET CORE. DURG THE AFTN AND EVE HRS THERE IS AN INCREASE IN DCVA               
 AS H5 TROF AXIS APPCHS CWA. AT THE TIME OF THE H8 FRONTAL PASSAGE              
 THIS EVE THERE IS SOME SML CAPE ON THE NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AS                 
 WELL AS SOME FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES WHICH COINCIDE WITH THE                  
 OTHER FORCING PLAYERS. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR MAY EVENTUALLY BE                     
 OVERCOME. ISENTROPICALLY THIS SYS DOES NOT LOOK TOO                            
 IMPRESSIVE...BOTH RH AND UPGLIDE WISE. BL TEMPS MAY BE INITIALLY               
 WRM ENUF TO SUPPORT SOME SHRA B4 CHANGING OVER TO SHSN AS LOW                  
 LEVELS EVAPORATIVELY COOL WITH SOME DYNAMICAL COOLING AS WELL WITH             
 UPPER TROF COMING ACRS.                                                        
 GFS SLOWING DOWN CLIPPER FOR MONDAY BUT OVERALL STILL A MON AFTN               
 AND EVE EVENT. WILL HAVE SML POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE.                 
 VORT TRACK AND POSN OF UPR JET SUGGEST BULK OF BEST PCPN WILL BE               
 SOUTH OF THE CWA BUT SOME LGT QPF CANNOT BE RULED OUT HERE...ESP FOR           
 THE SRN PTN OF THE CWA.                                                        
 TUE AND WED LOOK QUIET WITH SFC AND UPR RDGING. QUICK SHOT OF SOME             
 COLDER H8 TEMPS ON TUE AND THEN H8 WAA TAKES HOLD FOR WED. UPPER               
 FLOW BECOMES SW AND WILL HAVE CHC POPS RETURNING FOR THU.                      
 &&                                                                             
 .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NONE.                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 10                                                                             
</pre> wi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                        
 400 AM EST TUE JAN 9 2007                                                      
 .SYNOPSIS...                                                                   
 08Z WATER VAPOR AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH COVERING           
 JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA WITH LONGWAVE              
 RIDGING OVER MUCH OF THE WEST. THE CLOUDY...RAINY AND WARM WEATHER             
 ALONG MUCH OF THE EAST COAST DURING MONDAY HAS PUSHED WELL OFFSHORE            
 WITH A COOLER MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS FILTERING IN.                            
 CLOSER TO HOME AT THE SURFACE WILL SEE A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT ON              
 THE EAST SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.              
 SKIES HAVE GENERALLY CLEARED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW HIGHER                
 CLOUDS STILL LINGERING OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN BIG BEND. MUCH COOLER           
 AND DRIER AIR HAS ALSO FILTERED INTO THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES                
 FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE 40S AND DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO              
 THE 30S REGIONWIDE.                                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .SHORT TERM...                                                                 
 (TODAY-THURSDAY) GENERALLY QUIET AND PLEASANT WEATHER SCENARIO FOR             
 OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL               
 SLOWLY PROCEED EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST TO A POSITION JUST                
 NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN OFF THE                  
 CAROLINA COAST DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL COME UP A BIT            
 BY LATE THIS MORNING WITH 15 TO 20 MPH GUSTS A GOOD BET. HIGH                  
 TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND 60 TO 65             
 DEGREES UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES.                                     
 TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURES BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR           
 MUCH OF THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL MAKE ITS CLOSEST APPROACH DURING               
 THIS TIME FRAME. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES BOTH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY             
 NIGHT TO APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK OR DIP JUST BELOW ACROSS MANY              
 LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. A HARD FREEZE IS NOT                  
 ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME AS THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST            
 TIGHT ENOUGH TO PREVENT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AND               
 RAPID TEMPERATURE DROPS. DESPITE THE TEMPS NEAR FREEZING...WINDS MAY           
 STAY UP ENOUGH TONIGHT TO EVEN PREVENT THE SETTLING OF FROST.                  
 WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK. DESPITE NEARLY 100%             
 OF THE POSSIBLE SUNSHINE...THE PROXIMITY OF THE HIGH SHOULD PREVENT            
 FULL AFTERNOON MIXING AND WILL ONLY BE GOING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES            
 FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S             
 SOUTH.                                                                         
 AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE THE EAST ON THURSDAY...WINDS WILL COME               
 AROUND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST ALLOWING A BIT MORE LOW LEVEL                 
 MOISTURE AND BETTER MIXING INTO THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGH                     
 TEMPERATURES SHOULD COME BACK UP INTO THE 60S ALL LOCATIONS UNDER              
 PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.                                                  
 .LONG TERM...                                                                  
 (FRIDAY-TUESDAY) DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE                
 FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.                
 TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS BOTH                
 FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S AND             
 LOWS BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S.                                                
 NEXT SYSTEM TO POTENTIALLY AFFECT OUR AREA WILL THEN BE TAKING SHAPE           
 ACROSS THE PLAINS LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE           
 TO INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE EAST AND HAVE           
 ONLY INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FAR WEST             
 SATURDAY NIGHT. INCREASE THIS TO CHANCE POPS FAR WEST SUNDAY AND               
 SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE SPREADING SLOWLY EAST DURING               
 SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN IS BEING HINTED AT           
 BY THE GUIDANCE FOR THE EARLY TO MID WEEK PERIOD WITH ANOTHER GULF             
 LOW TAKING SHAPE.                                                              
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 WITH A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE...THIS WILL BE PRIMARILY           
 A WIND FORECAST SINCE VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW             
 DAYS. THE WIND WILL BE OUT OF THE N TO NW LESS THAN 10 KT                      
 OVERNIGHT...THEN INCREASE INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE LATE IN THE                  
 MORNING AS DEEPER VERTICAL MIXING DEVELOPS. GUSTS TO 20 KT WILL BE             
 POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY                   
 DECREASE NEAR SUNSET.                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .MARINE...                                                                     
 HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE WEST OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD            
 ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TODAY. A TIGHT GRADIENT ON THE               
 EASTERN SIDE OF THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS ELEVATED WITH              
 CAUTION CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE LEGS THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS              
 HIGH WILL THEN MOVE TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE              
 CAROLINA COAST BY THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY TO FALL JUST             
 BELOW CAUTION LEVELS DURING THIS TIME WITH WINDS COMING AROUND TO              
 THE NORTHEAST AND EAST. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE            
 TO CONTROL THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND               
 WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO JUST BELOW CAUTION LEVEL WINDS AND             
 SEAS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 .FIRE WEATHER...                                                               
 DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE AREA ON NORTH TO NORTHWEST                
 WINDS. THIS DRY AIR WILL COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN           
 THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY TO PRODUCE RED            
 FLAG CRITERIA ACROSS ALL OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND                  
 FLORIDA BIG BEND REGIONS. RH VALUES ARE LIKELY TO REACH CRITICAL               
 LEVELS FOR A TIME BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS ALABAMA BUT WITH             
 KBDI VALUES WELL BELOW 500...RED FLAG CRITERIA WILL NOT BE MET.                
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 TALLAHASSEE 65  31  59  31  67 /  0  0  0  0  05                               
 PANAMA CITY 65  37  61  37  66 /  0  0  0  0  05                               
 DOTHAN      62  31  57  31  65 /  0  0  0  0  05                               
 ALBANY      61  30  57  28  64 /  0  0  0  0  05                               
 VALDOSTA    64  32  58  31  66 /  0  0  0  0  05                               
 CROSS CITY  65  33  61  32  69 /  0  0  0  0  05                               
 &&                                                                             
 .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 AL...NONE.                                                                     
 GA...NONE.                                                                     
 FL...RED FLAG WARNING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS FOR ALL                 
 EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND FLORIDA BIG BEND ZONES.                          
 GM...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 AVIATION/FIREWX...FOURNIER                                                     
 REST OF DISCUSSION...MROCZKA                                                   
</pre> fl                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                         
 322 AM CST TUE JAN 9 2007                                                      
 .SHORT TERM /TODAY/...                                                         
 WINDS STILL THE BIGGEST CONCERN TODAY...THOUGH AT THIS POINT IT                
 LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL STAY JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL. HAVE NOT REALLY           
 HAD SUSTAINED OR GUSTS SPEEDS IN ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE LAST FEW            
 HOURS IN OUR AREA. INDEED...SHORT TERM RUC/NAM MODELS SHOWING BEST             
 AREA FOR STRONGEST GUSTS TO BE JUST TO OUR W AND SW WHERE                      
 SUBSIDENCE...LAPSE RATES...PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND TEMP ADVECTION ARE           
 STRONGEST. WILL LET CURRENT ADVISORY RIDE UNTIL 6 AM AND MAKE A LAST           
 MINUTE DECISION ABOUT ANY POSSIBLE SHORT DURATION EXTENSIONS.                  
 ACCORDING TO MODEL SOUNDINGS...TROP FOLD MOVES EAST BY 14Z...BUT               
 STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WINDS NEAR 40-45 MPH WILL EXIST NEAR           
 THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. SO...WIND GUSTS THIS MORNING TO 40 MPH             
 ARE POSSIBLE...THEN WINDS SUBSIDE A LITTLE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE              
 DAY...THOUGH STILL GUSTY.                                                      
 LIGHT SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY ACTIVITY WHICH HAS OUR RADAR SCOPE FILLED             
 UP RIGHT NOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE BY MID MORNING...WITH A              
 CLEARING SKY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS LEADING TO SOME AFTERNOON             
 CU OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO CLIMB MUCH             
 TODAY. WILL START OUT THIS MORNING WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY                      
 THOUGHT...BUT WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS REMAINING TO OUR WEST TODAY AND              
 LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE REGION...CAN`T SEE HIGHS MORE THAN           
 A FEW DEGREES OVER THIS MORNINGS LOWS.                                         
 &&                                                                             
 .LONG TERM...(TONIGHT-SATURDAY)                                                
 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT. THE MOSTLY              
 CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS DURING THE EVENING WILL ALLOW LOWS TO              
 FALL INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. GOOD THETA-E ADVECTION LEADING TO            
 INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL STEADY TEMPERATURES WITH            
 READINGS RISING ACROSS THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER MILD             
 DAY IS ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S COMMON...EVEN A              
 FEW LOWER 50S MAY SNEAK INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST. A PATTERN CHANGE               
 BEGINS ON THURSDAY AS AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY BEGINS TO INTRUDE INTO                
 NORTHWEST IOWA. HAVE FOLLOWED A GFS/SREF/UKMET SOLUTION ON THE                 
 TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY. ALL 3 SOLUTIONS ARE SIMILAR AND ARE ALL MORE           
 PROGRESSIVE THAN THE SLOWER NAM. THE FASTER SOLUTION WILL HAVE A               
 STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER CENTRAL IOWA WITH MID 40S OVER THE                 
 SOUTHEAST TO THE MID 20S TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS ESTHERVILLE.                 
 PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE            
 FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL THEN           
 CONTINUE WELL INTO THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION TYPE CONTINUES TO BE             
 THE MOST DIFFICULT CHALLENGE AND IS HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON A NUMBER OF            
 FACTORS. BOUNDARY POSITION WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN ON THURSDAY             
 WITH PRIMARILY A RAIN/SNOW EXPECTED. THURSDAY NIGHT BECOMES MORE               
 DIFFICULT WITH FROZEN PRECIPITATION BECOMING MORE LIKELY DUE TO WARM           
 AIR OVERRUNNING THE BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA AND DUE TO              
 DRIER MID LEVEL AIR AND THE LOSS OF ICE INTRODUCTION ACROSS CENTRAL            
 PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THE LOSS OF ICE INTRODUCTION CONTINUES INTO             
 FRIDAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE DRY MID LEVEL AIR WEDGES FARTHER           
 TO THE SOUTH AND HAVE MAINTAINED THE FREEZING RAIN MENTION. THE NEXT           
 SYSTEM IS DUE TO ARRIVE ON SATURDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH             
 THIS SYSTEM AS WELL. THE OPERATIONAL GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SNOW             
 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE ECMWF AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN BRING THE            
 850MB WARM NOSE A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH WITH A MIXED BAG OF                     
 PRECIPITATION FROM LAMONI TO OTTUMWA. NO CHANGES BEYOND SATURDAY.              
 &&                                                                             
 .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY ALONG AND W OF                
 LWD-DSM-AMW-MCW LINE  TIL 12Z.                                                 
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 MOYER/DONAVON                                                                  
</pre> ia                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                          
 425 AM CST TUE JAN 9 2007                                                      
 .DISCUSSION                                                                    
 SHORT TERM CONCERNS DEAL WITH GUSTY WINDS THIS MORNING. LOOKING                
 UPSTREAM ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA THERE ARE SEVERAL OBSERVATIONAL               
 SITES WITH GUSTS WELL IN EXCESS OF 30KTS AND EVEN A COUPLE ISOLATED            
 SPOTS OVER 40KTS.  PROFILERS AND VWPS IN THIS REGION SHOW 500 METER            
 WINDS AROUND 40KTS...WITH RUC 1000-850MB LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8            
 DEG C/KM ALLOWING FOR EFFICIENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE.              
 THE INHERITED WIND ADVISORY FOR FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI WAS TO EXPIRE           
 AT 5 AM.  HOWEVER...DECIDED TO EXTEND IT UNTIL 8 AM AS HIGHER                  
 1000-850MB LAPSE RATES WILL OVERSPREAD THE ADVISORY AREA BETWEEN 12Z           
 AND 15Z.  DID CONSIDER EXPANDING THE ADVISORY FURTHER TO THE SOUTH             
 AND EAST...BUT THE BETTER LAPSE RATES FALL OFF QUICKLY BY 15Z. WILL            
 CONTINUE TO MONITOR TO DETERMINE IF ANY FURTHER ADJUSTMENT ARE                 
 NEEDED.  OTHER SHORT TERM CONCERN DEALS WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES             
 THIS MORNING.  DID GO AHEAD AND INSERT SOME SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES              
 ACROSS FAR NORTH/NORTHEAST AREAS IN THE WX GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE            
 ACTIVITY MOVING OUT OF IOWA.  HOWEVER I KEPT POPS AT OR BELOW 14               
 PERCENT AS MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS NOT LIKELY.                             
 LOOKS LIKE THE AREA WILL BE ON THE TEMPERATURE "ROLLER COASTER" THE            
 NEXT FEW DAYS.  WHILE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY OVER                 
 SOUTHERN MISSOURI...THE COLDER AIR IS JUST NOW BEGINNING TO FILTER             
 SOUTHWARD WITH THE COLDEST PUSH OF AIR EXPECTED TO BE OVER NORTHEAST           
 MISSOURI.  THIS WILL RESULT IS MUCH COOLER HIGHS COMPARED TO                   
 YESTERDAY...GRIDDED HIGHS WILL HAVE LOWER 40S SOUTHWEST TO UPPER 30S           
 ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST MISSOURI COUNTIES.  AS OUR NEXT UPPER LEVEL               
 STORM SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE WESTERN U.S. ON WEDNESDAY...THE FLOW               
 ALOFT WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL               
 INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY. WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE                    
 EXPECTED...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY WITH MUCH OF THE AREA            
 CLAIMING INTO THE 50S DURING THE AFTERNOON.  WHILE MOISTURE WILL               
 GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY...THERE COULD STILL BE HEIGHTENED            
 FIRE DANGER ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS AND WEST-CENTRAL                    
 MISSOURI.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH WINDS AND RH VALUES CLOSELY DURING               
 SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS...BUT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW RED FLAG             
 CRITERIA.                                                                      
 ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT.  MODELS STILL            
 AREN`T IN TOTAL AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF THE COLDER             
 AIR.  THE NAM IS THE SLOWEST WITH THE GFS BEING QUICKER.  I TRENDED            
 TOWARD THE FASTER GFS AS ITS SOLUTION WAS SIMILAR TO THE 21Z SREF              
 MEAN SOLUTION.  ON THURSDAY...ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES NICELY AHEAD           
 OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...AND I DID GO AHEAD AND RAISE POPS A BIT.            
 INITIALLY IT LOOKS LIKE SOME DRIER AIR WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME SO             
 KEPT POPS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 PERCENT.  THE FRONT WILL STAY NORTHWEST            
 OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY SO PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL               
 RAIN.                                                                          
 FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY PERIOD I ONLY MADE A FEW TWEAKS           
 AS THERE IS STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING POSSIBLE            
 WINTER WEATHER.  BY THURSDAY NIGHT...DEEPER MOISTURE MAKES IT INTO             
 THE AREA AND WITH GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT IN PLACE I RAISED POPS INTO             
 THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY.  I WOULDN`T BE SUPRISED IF THESE NEED TO             
 BE RAISED A BIT MORE AS THE SREF OUTPUT INDICATES LIKELY POPS MAY BE           
 NEEDED.  STILL LOOKS LIKE THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA              
 WILL SEE SOME ICY PRECIPITATION AS THE ARTIC FRONT UNDERCUTS THE               
 WARMER AIR ALOFT.  MAIN CHANGE TO THE WX GRIDS WAS TO ADD SOME SLEET           
 MIXED WITH FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN LOCATIONS AS SOME ICE                 
 CRYSTAL PRODUCTION MAY BE PRESENT.  ALSO STILL LOOKING LIKE THE COLD           
 AIR WILL SLOWLY OOZE SOUTHEASTWARD...THIS WILL ANY PRECIP WHICH                
 FALLS AS RAIN ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES UNTIL SOMETIME                 
 FRIDAY NIGHT. STILL UNCERTAIN AS TO AMOUNTS OF ICE ACCUMULATION AS             
 THE SREF WANTS TO KEEP THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ALONG AND JUST                
 AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WHICH WOULD KEEP THE           
 GREATER QPF ACROSS AREAS WHICH WILL STAY MAINLY RAIN.                          
 WILL STILL NEED TO WATCH AS THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE              
 NORTHERN PLAINS BY 12Z SUNDAY.  THE BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW           
 WOULD LIKELY BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70...BUT ITS STILL TOO FAR OUT             
 TO PINPOINT ACCUMULATIONS.                                                     
 SAW                                                                            
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 425 AM CST TUE JAN 9 2007                                                      
 LATEST LOOK AT RUC AND 18Z RUNS...ALONG WITH WHAT IS HAPPENING                 
 UPSTREAM IS SHOWING THAT STRONGEST WINDS IN THE ADVISORY WILL BE               
 LATE IN THE EVENING THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS. AT BEST LOOKING TO            
 BE ONLY AN HOUR OR TWO OF ADVISORY CRITERIA OF WINDS AT ANY GIVEN              
 POINT AS LOW LEVELS FEEL THE EFFECTS OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX           
 MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WILL SCALE BACK THE START AND END TIME OF            
 THE ADVISORY TO FOCUS IT ON THE MAIN TIME OF CONCERN...AND ALSO TAKE           
 OUT NORTHEAST KANSAS...AS IT NOW APPEARS THE BETTER GRADIENT WILL BE           
 OVER MISSOURI. EXPECT NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI ALSO TO GET PRETTY                
 GUSTY...BUT REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.  WILL HANDLE WITH             
 SHORT TERM FORECASTS AS THAT DEVELOPS.                                         
 ALSO WATCHING A FEW SPRINKLES MOVING SOUTHEAST ON OMAHA RADAR.                 
 SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOISTURE IS PRETTY SHALLOW SO AT THIS POINT...NOT           
 PLANNING ON ADDING AS ANY RAIN TO NORTHWEST MISSOURI SINCE WOULD               
 EXPECT IT TO BE VERY LOCALIZED AND LIGHT. PLAN ON HANDLING WITH                
 SHORT TERM FORECASTS IF SPRINKLES DO POP UP. A LITTLE MORE CONCERNED           
 WITH MY NORTHEAST AREAS...WHERE A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE EXISTS                
 OVERNIGHT. SOUNDINGS SHOW BY THAT TIME MOISTURE IS IN PLACE IN THE             
 900 TO 800 MB LEVELS...THE TEMPERATURES WOULD SUPPORT SNOW. WITH               
 SUCH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFT...NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATING                   
 SNOW...SO WILL CALL IT FLURRIES AT THIS POINT.                                 
 PC                                                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 425 AM CST TUE JAN 9 2007                                                      
 FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH THE NEXT 60 HOURS WITH THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN           
 BEING THE END OF THE WEEK STORM SYSTEM.                                        
 BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS NOT                
 QUITE UP TO ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER...LET THE ADVISORY RIDE UNTIL           
 12Z AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AGAIN TONIGHT AS NEAR                
 1039MB SFC RIDGE NOSES INTO THE PLAINS ON THE HEALS OF THE EXITING             
 NE US/SE CANADA SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...LOOKING FOR 45KT CORE OF H925            
 TO AFFECT THE AREA NEAR MIDNIGHT. WHILE A WEAK INVERSION IS EXPECTED           
 TO SET UP TONIGHT...DECENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER MAY BE ENOUGH TO                  
 OVERCOME THIS TO ALLOW SOME OF THE 45KT CORE TO DESCEND. WHILE NOT             
 OVERLY CONFIDENT THE ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE MET...FOUND IT                  
 PRUDENT TO LET IT GO FOR CONTINUITY SAKE. NONETHELESS...BREEZY                 
 CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN ADDITION...AS                 
 ELONGATED VORTICITY CORE SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH BRIEFLY            
 COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS...MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES           
 MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER...APPEARS MORE LIKELY              
 AREA FOR ANY PRECIP WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE CWA...IN CLOSER                 
 PROXIMITY TO THE VORT MAXIMA. THEREFORE...LEFT ONLY SILENT POPS IN             
 FOR NOW.                                                                       
 OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO RELAX BY LATE MORNING AND INTO THE          
 EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC RIDGE SETTLES INTO           
 THE PLAINS. OVERALL PLEASANT DAY EXPECTED TOMORROW AS STRONG                   
 NORTHWEST FLOW SHIFTS EASTWARD ALLOWING UPPER RIDGING TO OVERSPREAD            
 THE AREA. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL AS CAA CONTINUES THROUGH THE          
 DAY...ALBEIT STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.                                 
 SFC RIDGE AXIS SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LEE              
 SIDE TROUGHING COMMENCES IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHTS FALLS SPREADING INTO           
 THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL US. EXPECTING ANOTHER BREEZY DAY AS GFS PROGS          
 60KT LLJ TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND                 
 SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE...SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY            
 NEED TO BE ADDRESSED AS DECENT MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY                     
 CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP. FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE SOMEWHAT HAMPERED           
 BY VIGOROUS MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH DEEPEST MOISTURE IS            
 NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA UNTIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.                      
 NEVERTHELESS...HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED                 
 ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA.                     
 DEROCHE                                                                        
 GFS SOLUTION HAS NOT DEVIATED MUCH OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. IT              
 CONTINUES TO SHOW THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER              
 THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH                     
 STRETCHING NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. NAM IS MUCH FARTHER               
 NORTH WITH THE ECMWF BETWEEN THE TWO. HAVE BASICALLY GONE WITH A               
 BLEND WHICH IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE ECMWF.                                      
 MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND            
 FRIDAY. HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY. AS THE UPPER               
 LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO MORE                    
 WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER SHOWERS. AT THIS TIME...SURFACE AND MID LEVEL           
 TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN.                               
 COLD AIR STARTS TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT              
 INTO FRIDAY. DEEP MOISTURE IS STILL PRESENT. MODEL FORECASTS                   
 CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG INDICATION OF A FREEZING RAIN SCENARIO FOR           
 FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT MAINLY NORTH OF A           
 LINE FROM PAOLA KANSAS TO MACON MISSOURI.                                      
 WHILE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT...IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO            
 DETERMINE THE ACTUAL SCENARIO AND WHERE THE FREEZING LINE WILL SET             
 UP. THINK CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL SEE RAIN THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE                
 EVENT. WHILE LOCATIONS NORTH OF THERE WILL SEE FREEZING RAIN THROUGH           
 MUCH OF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. DO THINK THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR               
 SNOW ACROSS MAINLY FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY             
 AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE AT ITS CLOSEST AND THE COLD AIR              
 WILL BE DEEPER. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH MOVING THE SYSTEM EAST OF THE           
 FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT.                                                 
 NRR                                                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY FOR MOZ001>005-011-012.                  
 KS...NONE.                                                                     
 $$                                                                             
</pre> mo                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                         
 439 AM EST TUE JAN 9 2007                                                      
 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                
 THE 00Z NAM AND GFS WERE IN REASONABLY FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE                 
 PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURES. THE WEATHER FEATURE OF CONCERN DURING                
 THIS PERIOD IS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA                 
 TODAY. FORCING IS LIMITED WITH SYSTEM...AS NOTED BY BOTH MODELS.               
 IT APPEARS THAT THE PRIMARY FORCING IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH BOUNDARY            
 LAYER CONVERGENCE. THIS COUPLED WITH MINIMAL ISENTROPIC LIFT AS                
 SEEN WITH THE 285K AND ESPECIALLY THE 280K SURFACE IS PROVIDING                
 INCREASED ARIEL COVERAGE OF LIGHT SNOW AS OBSERVED VIA THE KILN                
 WSR-88D. EXPECT THIS PRECIPITATION...WHICH IS MAINLY SNOW...TO                 
 SLOWLY PIVOT E AND SSE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. TEMPERATURES IN              
 ASSOCIATION WITH THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION RETURNS HAVE DROPPED                
 DOWN TO THE WET BULB TEMP...WHICH IS CLOSER TO FREEZING. MOST                  
 AREAS HOWEVER ARE SHOWING TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE MID-UPPER                  
 30S...ALLOWING THE SNOW TO MELT AS IT REACHES THE GROUND. EXPECT A             
 SLOW RECOVERY OF TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTS             
 OUT.                                                                           
 MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS ARE                   
 EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. EXPECT A                    
 GRADUAL WARM UP TO BEGIN AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE             
 ATLANTIC COAST...ALLOWING A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILDER AIR TO             
 BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA BY THURSDAY.                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 /ISSUED 1252 AM EST TUE JAN 9 2007/                                            
 AVIATION /06Z-06Z/...                                                          
 RADAR SHOWS INITIAL AREA OF PRECIPITATION ADVANCING ACROSS                     
 INDIANA. CONDITIONS ARE PRIMARILY REMAINING VFR WITH THIS                      
 PRECIPITATION AND SO HAVE KEPT FORECAST ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE FOR             
 THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS TRICKY EARLY ON.                 
 HAVE GONE WITH RAIN AT THE CINCINNATI TERMINALS THROUGH 10Z WITH               
 SNOW ELSEWHERE. MODELS DO SHOW LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE DEVELOPING                 
 AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 12Z                
 AND 15Z. SO HAVE INCLUDED MVFR CEILINGS FOR THIS TIME FRAME.                   
 EXPECT TO SEE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE FRONT AS WELL WHICH                
 COULD BRIEFLY LOWER THE VISIBILITY TO IFR. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED               
 TO IMPROVE A FEW HOURS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SNOW SHOWERS                 
 ENDING. HAVE KEPT A BROKEN TO OVERCAST VFR CEILING THROUGH THE                 
 REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. ALSO AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WEST                     
 NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AND BE GUSTY                  
 THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND WELL INTO THE NIGHT.                           
 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 PM EST MON JAN 8 2007/                         
 SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                  
 TROF CONTINUES TO APPROACH AND 18Z GFS STILL WITH THE MOST PRECIP              
 OUT OF THIS CLIPPER. NAM STILL MUCH DRIER...WITH RUC THROUGH 12Z               
 IN BETWEEN. GIVEN STILL DRY LOW LEVELS...HAVE PUSHED BACK TIMING               
 A BIT OF GREATER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE...AND TAKEN DOWN PRECIP                    
 CHANCES SLIGHTLY. LOW TEMPS LOOK GOOD.                                         
 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 PM EST MON JAN 8 2007/                          
 SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                                
 LATE THIS AFTERNOON CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM TO EFFECT           
 THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION WERE SLOWLY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.              
 THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A CLIPPER SYSTEM ACROSS THE REGION LATE           
 TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE. THE 12Z RUNS CONTINUED TO BE FURTHER SOUTH              
 WITH THE SYSTEM AND A BIT SLOWER. DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE PRECIPITATION           
 UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE              
 SOUTH. STILL LOOKING AT MAXIMUM ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN ONE INCH            
 TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. LIGHT SNOW WITH THE SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT WILL              
 TRANSITION TO MORE OF A SNOW SHOWER TYPE OF PRECIPITATION LATE TUE             
 MORNING AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CREATES INSTABILITIY BEHIND THE                  
 CLIPPER. LAKE EFFECT MAY CREATE SOME ENHANCEMENT OF SHOWERS AS WELL            
 ON TUE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION WED AND           
 SLIDE EAST WED NIGHT.                                                          
 TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO THE NORMALS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS           
 COMPARED TO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. USED A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET             
 FOR THE MOST PART.                                                             
 LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                         
 0Z ENSEMBLES OF THE GFS AT 180 HRS 12Z/15TH ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT              
 WITH THEMSELVES BOTH AT H5 AND THE SFC. L/W WILL BE OVER ERN 1/3 OF            
 CONUS WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN PROGGED TO BE THROUGH             
 OHVLY AT THIS TIME. ONLY 1 OR 2 RUNS STILL HAVE LIQUID QPF OVER                
 OHVLY WITH A SLOWER FROPA...1 OR 2 HAVE AN ANOMALOUS HIGH N OF NEW             
 ENGLAND. REMAINING 7 OR 8 SIMULATIONS ARE SHOWING A STRONG SFC L               
 OVER OR JUST OFF THE COAST OF ERN CANADA WITH A SWEEPING COLD FRONT            
 WELL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN              
 THE ROCKIES OR POSSIBLY LOCATED SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST IN THE MIDWEST.          
 CANADIEN ENSEMBLES ALSO SHOWING SIMILAR CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS AND           
 WITHIN ITSELF...LEADING TO A FCST WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE             
 EXTENDED.                                                                      
 GUIDANCE FROM HPC WAS GOOD THROUGH SUNDAY. DROPPED SUN NIGHT TEMPS             
 BY 5 DEG FROM HPC FCST AS CDFNT SHOULD BE WELL THROUGH OHVLY BY 12Z            
 MON. MON TEMPS WERE SUN NIGHT LOWS PLUS 2 TO 4 DEG. THIS CORRELATED            
 WELL WITH HPC FCST MINUS 5 TO 7 DEG...ALMOST EXACTLY HOW THE PREV              
 NIGHTS LOWS WERE ATTAINED. BELIEVE THAT HPC HAS TO HEDGE DUE TO                
 POSSIBLE TIMING ISSUES...WHERE I CAN GO A LITTLE COOLER WITH THE               
 STRONG THOUGHTS OF A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TRACE MON IN THE STRONG CAA              
 BEHIND FRONT. LIKE THE 60-70 POPS FOR THESE PERIODS FROM HPC.                  
 PRECIP SHOULD BRIEFLY MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW SUN. STARTED A MIX           
 IN THE NORTHWEST AND PROGRESSED IT SOUTHEAST ON SUN...WITH ALL SNOW            
 FOR ENTIRE OHVLY BY SUN OVERNIGHT. RAIN WILL BE BOTH MODERATE AND              
 CATEGORICAL WITH FROPA BUT DID NOT ENTERTAIN QUITE THAT MUCH                   
 CONFIDENCE IN POPS WITH HOW FAR OUT IN TIME IT IS.                             
 FRANKS                                                                         
 &&                                                                             
 .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 OH...NONE.                                                                     
 KY...NONE.                                                                     
 IN...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> oh                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                         
 1252 AM EST TUE JAN 9 2007                                                     
 .AVIATION /06Z-06Z/...                                                         
 RADAR SHOWS INITIAL AREA OF PRECIPITATION ADVANCING ACROSS                     
 INDIANA. CONDITIONS ARE PRIMARILY REMAINING VFR WITH THIS                      
 PRECIPITATION AND SO HAVE KEPT FORECAST ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE FOR             
 THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS TRICKY EARLY ON.                 
 HAVE GONE WITH RAIN AT THE CINCINNATI TERMINALS THROUGH 10Z WITH               
 SNOW ELSEWHERE. MODELS DO SHOW LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE DEVELOPING                 
 AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 12Z                
 AND 15Z. SO HAVE INCLUDED MVFR CEILINGS FOR THIS TIME FRAME.                   
 EXPECT TO SEE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE FRONT AS WELL WHICH                
 COULD BRIEFLY LOWER THE VISIBILITY TO IFR. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED               
 TO IMPROVE A FEW HOURS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SNOW SHOWERS                 
 ENDING. HAVE KEPT A BROKEN TO OVERCAST VFR CEILING THROUGH THE                 
 REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. ALSO AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WEST                     
 NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AND BE GUSTY                  
 THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND WELL INTO THE NIGHT.                           
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 PM EST MON JAN 8 2007/                        
 SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                  
 TROF CONTINUES TO APPROACH AND 18Z GFS STILL WITH THE MOST PRECIP              
 OUT OF THIS CLIPPER. NAM STILL MUCH DRIER...WITH RUC THROUGH 12Z               
 IN BETWEEN. GIVEN STILL DRY LOW LEVELS...HAVE PUSHED BACK TIMING               
 A BIT OF GREATER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE...AND TAKEN DOWN PRECIP                    
 CHANCES SLIGHTLY. LOW TEMPS LOOK GOOD.                                         
 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 PM EST MON JAN 8 2007/                          
 SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                                
 LATE THIS AFTERNOON CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM TO EFFECT           
 THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION WERE SLOWLY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.              
 THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A CLIPPER SYSTEM ACROSS THE REGION LATE           
 TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE. THE 12Z RUNS CONTINUED TO BE FURTHER SOUTH              
 WITH THE SYSTEM AND A BIT SLOWER. DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE PRECIPITATION           
 UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE              
 SOUTH. STILL LOOKING AT MAXIMUM ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN ONE INCH            
 TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. LIGHT SNOW WITH THE SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT WILL              
 TRANSITION TO MORE OF A SNOW SHOWER TYPE OF PRECIPITATION LATE TUE             
 MORNING AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CREATES INSTABILITIY BEHIND THE                  
 CLIPPER. LAKE EFFECT MAY CREATE SOME ENHANCEMENT OF SHOWERS AS WELL            
 ON TUE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION WED AND           
 SLIDE EAST WED NIGHT.                                                          
 TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO THE NORMALS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS           
 COMPARED TO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. USED A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET             
 FOR THE MOST PART.                                                             
 LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                         
 0Z ENSEMBLES OF THE GFS AT 180 HRS 12Z/15TH ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT              
 WITH THEMSELVES BOTH AT H5 AND THE SFC. L/W WILL BE OVER ERN 1/3 OF            
 CONUS WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN PROGGED TO BE THROUGH             
 OHVLY AT THIS TIME. ONLY 1 OR 2 RUNS STILL HAVE LIQUID QPF OVER                
 OHVLY WITH A SLOWER FROPA...1 OR 2 HAVE AN ANOMALOUS HIGH N OF NEW             
 ENGLAND. REMAINING 7 OR 8 SIMULATIONS ARE SHOWING A STRONG SFC L               
 OVER OR JUST OFF THE COAST OF ERN CANADA WITH A SWEEPING COLD FRONT            
 WELL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN              
 THE ROCKIES OR POSSIBLY LOCATED SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST IN THE MIDWEST.          
 CANADIEN ENSEMBLES ALSO SHOWING SIMILAR CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS AND           
 WITHIN ITSELF...LEADING TO A FCST WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE             
 EXTENDED.                                                                      
 GUIDANCE FROM HPC WAS GOOD THROUGH SUNDAY. DROPPED SUN NIGHT TEMPS             
 BY 5 DEG FROM HPC FCST AS CDFNT SHOULD BE WELL THROUGH OHVLY BY 12Z            
 MON. MON TEMPS WERE SUN NIGHT LOWS PLUS 2 TO 4 DEG. THIS CORRELATED            
 WELL WITH HPC FCST MINUS 5 TO 7 DEG...ALMOST EXACTLY HOW THE PREV              
 NIGHTS LOWS WERE ATTAINED. BELIEVE THAT HPC HAS TO HEDGE DUE TO                
 POSSIBLE TIMING ISSUES...WHERE I CAN GO A LITTLE COOLER WITH THE               
 STRONG THOUGHTS OF A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TRACE MON IN THE STRONG CAA              
 BEHIND FRONT. LIKE THE 60-70 POPS FOR THESE PERIODS FROM HPC.                  
 PRECIP SHOULD BRIEFLY MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW SUN. STARTED A MIX           
 IN THE NORTHWEST AND PROGRESSED IT SOUTHEAST ON SUN...WITH ALL SNOW            
 FOR ENTIRE OHVLY BY SUN OVERNIGHT. RAIN WILL BE BOTH MODERATE AND              
 CATEGORICAL WITH FROPA BUT DID NOT ENTERTAIN QUITE THAT MUCH                   
 CONFIDENCE IN POPS WITH HOW FAR OUT IN TIME IT IS.                             
 FRANKS                                                                         
 &&                                                                             
 .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 OH...NONE.                                                                     
 KY...NONE.                                                                     
 IN...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> oh                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                             
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                         
 740 AM CST TUE JAN 9 2007                                                      
 .SHORT TERM /TODAY/...                                                         
 HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO REMOVE ANY MENTION OF FLURRIES THIS MORNING              
 AND TO REFLECT THE CLEARING THAT HAS OCCURRED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.           
 WINDS STILL THE BIGGEST CONCERN TODAY...THOUGH AT THIS POINT IT                
 LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL STAY JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL. HAVE NOT REALLY           
 HAD SUSTAINED OR GUSTS SPEEDS IN ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE LAST FEW            
 HOURS IN OUR AREA. INDEED...SHORT TERM RUC/NAM MODELS SHOWING BEST             
 AREA FOR STRONGEST GUSTS TO BE JUST TO OUR W AND SW WHERE                      
 SUBSIDENCE...LAPSE RATES...PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND TEMP ADVECTION ARE           
 STRONGEST. WILL LET CURRENT ADVISORY RIDE UNTIL 6 AM AND MAKE A LAST           
 MINUTE DECISION ABOUT ANY POSSIBLE SHORT DURATION EXTENSIONS.                  
 ACCORDING TO MODEL SOUNDINGS...TROP FOLD MOVES EAST BY 14Z...BUT               
 STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WINDS NEAR 40-45 MPH WILL EXIST NEAR           
 THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. SO...WIND GUSTS THIS MORNING TO 40 MPH             
 ARE POSSIBLE...THEN WINDS SUBSIDE A LITTLE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE              
 DAY...THOUGH STILL GUSTY.                                                      
 WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS REMAINING TO OUR WEST TODAY AND LOW LEVEL                  
 THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE REGION...CAN`T SEE HIGHS MORE THAN A FEW               
 DEGREES OVER THIS MORNINGS LOWS ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT A LARGER                
 DIURNAL SPREAD IS MORE LIKELY UP NORTH WHERE IT HAS CLEARED AND THE            
 TEMP HAS DROPPED INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS EARLY THIS MORNING.               
 &&                                                                             
 .LONG TERM...(TONIGHT-SATURDAY)                                                
 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT. THE MOSTLY              
 CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS DURING THE EVENING WILL ALLOW LOWS TO              
 FALL INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. GOOD THETA-E ADVECTION LEADING TO            
 INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL STEADY TEMPERATURES WITH            
 READINGS RISING ACROSS THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER MILD             
 DAY IS ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S COMMON...EVEN A              
 FEW LOWER 50S MAY SNEAK INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST. A PATTERN CHANGE               
 BEGINS ON THURSDAY AS AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY BEGINS TO INTRUDE INTO                
 NORTHWEST IOWA. HAVE FOLLOWED A GFS/SREF/UKMET SOLUTION ON THE                 
 TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY. ALL 3 SOLUTIONS ARE SIMILAR AND ARE ALL MORE           
 PROGRESSIVE THAN THE SLOWER NAM. THE FASTER SOLUTION WILL HAVE A               
 STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER CENTRAL IOWA WITH MID 40S OVER THE                 
 SOUTHEAST TO THE MID 20S TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS ESTHERVILLE.                 
 PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE            
 FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL THEN           
 CONTINUE WELL INTO THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION TYPE CONTINUES TO BE             
 THE MOST DIFFICULT CHALLENGE AND IS HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON A NUMBER OF            
 FACTORS. BOUNDARY POSITION WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN ON THURSDAY             
 WITH PRIMARILY A RAIN/SNOW EXPECTED. THURSDAY NIGHT BECOMES MORE               
 DIFFICULT WITH FREEZING PRECIPITATION BECOMING MORE LIKELY DUE TO              
 WARM AIR OVERRUNNING THE BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA AND DUE            
 TO DRIER MID LEVEL AIR AND THE LOSS OF ICE INTRODUCTION ACROSS                 
 CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THE LOSS OF ICE INTRODUCTION                    
 CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE DRY MID LEVEL AIR           
 WEDGES FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND HAVE MAINTAINED THE FREEZING RAIN              
 MENTION. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS DUE TO ARRIVE ON SATURDAY. SOME                    
 UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL. THE OPERATIONAL GFS              
 CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE ECMWF AND THE              
 GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN BRING THE 850MB WARM NOSE A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH             
 WITH A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION FROM LAMONI TO OTTUMWA. NO CHANGES           
 BEYOND SATURDAY.                                                               
 &&                                                                             
 .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                       
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 MOYER/DONAVON                                                                  
</pre> ia                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                           
 200 PM MST TUE JAN 9 2007                                                      
 .SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT - SATURDAY)                                            
 ARCTIC OUTBREAK AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL BE THE MAIN                  
 CONCERNS.                                                                      
 TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BASICALLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST. STRONG               
 WARMING ALOFT STILL INDICATED FOR WEDNESDAY. SNOWPACK WILL OFFSET              
 THE WARMING...BUT VERY DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW MUCH. FOR THE SAKE OF              
 CONSISTENCY JUST LEFT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST INTACT. GAVE SOME                  
 THOUGHT TO PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AHEAD OF THE WEAK               
 SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL LIE FROM MCCOOK TO TRIBUNE. RUC20                    
 FORECASTING REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND LOW CEILINGS TO THE EAST OF               
 THAT LINE...WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH NAM SURFACE RH FORECAST. SOME             
 MOISTURE ADVECTION FORECAST AT THE SURFACE. WILL PASS THIS ALONG TO            
 THE NEXT SHIFT TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE EVENING UPDATE.                         
 THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE                 
 FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY             
 OR SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. SOME PARTS OF THE FAR SOUTHERN              
 AND EASTERN CWA MAY RISE A BIT IN THE MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS              
 CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A MENTION OF DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE            
 AFTERNOON...PERHAPS MIXED WITH SNOW FAR NORTHWEST. A CHANCE FOR                
 LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY           
 ON FRIDAY. HAVE INCORPORATED THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS WHICH                  
 SUGGEST MORE OF A FREEZING DRIZZLE SCENARIO COMPARED TO THE                    
 GFS...WHICH HAS MORE OF A SLEET OR SNOW PROFILE. NO MATTER THE                 
 PHASE...PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT. SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL                  
 INCREASE OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON                 
 SATURDAY. THESE PERIODS SHOULD BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE                  
 SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW. MIDLEVEL DRY SLOT SHOULD OVERSHOOT              
 THE SURFACE BASED COLD LAYER...WHICH WILL BE COLD ENOUGH AND MOIST             
 ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW GROWTH. SOME CONCERN IN FAR EAST AND                    
 SOUTHEASTERN ZONES ABOUT WHEN THE TRANSITION TO SNOW WILL OCCUR.               
 FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR KHYS SHOW FREEZING PRECIPITATION STILL                  
 POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY...WHILE AT KHLC SATURATION REACHES -10C AS           
 EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL HOLD ON TO A SMALL AREA OF MIXED                   
 PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT EAST OF A NORTON TO GOVE LINE.              
 CERTAINLY LOOKS TO BE ALL SNOW BY SATURDAY WITH FURTHER COOLING.               
 .LONG TERM... (SUNDAY - TUESDAY)                                               
 MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD WILL BE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES...WITH A           
 SECONDARY CONCERN FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION. SYNOPTIC             
 SCALE LIFT WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY. HOWEVER WITH               
 UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL NEARBY COULD STILL SQUEEZE OUT A FEW FLURRIES            
 IN THE ARCTIC AIR. SURFACE WINDS GUSTING TO 30KTS WILL ALSO BRING A            
 THREAT OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...SO WENT AHEAD AND ADDED THAT             
 TO THE GRIDS. MONDAY AND TUESDAY SEE A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH SWING            
 THROUGH AND OPERATIONAL GFS BRINGS EVEN COLDER AIR INTO THE CWA. GFS           
 ENSEMBLE AVERAGE AND ECMWF NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THAT COLD AIR...SO           
 BASICALLY USED PERSISTENCE FOR TEMPERATURE FORECAST. Q-VECTORS SHOW            
 SOME OCCASIONAL SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE NEXT           
 SHORTWAVE...SO WILL HAVE A MENTION OF FLURRIES BOTH DAYS.                      
 &&                                                                             
 .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 KS...NONE.                                                                     
 NE...NONE.                                                                     
 CO...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 JDK                                                                            
</pre> ks                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                            
 516 PM EST TUE JAN 9 2007                                                      
 .UPDATE...ISSUED GALE WARNINGS FOR FAR NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN                  
 NEARSHORE WATERS...ALONG WITH WHITEFISH BAY/ST. MARY`S RIVER SYSTEM            
 AND THE STRAITS REGION. SHIP REPORTS OF SUSTAINED 38 KNOTS IN FAR              
 NRN LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH BOTH POINT IROQUOIS AND SOUTH WEST PIER IN            
 EASTERN UPPER LAKE/RIVER WATERS.                                               
 SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER               
 TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS LEADING TO DEEP MIXING...AND STRONGER           
 THAN ANTICIPATED WINDS.    SMD                                                 
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 353 PM EST TUE JAN 9 2007                           
 DISCUSSION...18Z SURFACE/RUC ANALYSIS AND VIS/IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY              
 SHOW BROAD LOW AND UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES              
 AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS.  COLD ADVECTION AT            
 850MB IS CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS HELPING TO INCREASE              
 OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY CREATING LAKE-850MB DELTA T/S AROUND 20C.                
 WINDS HAVE BACKED SLIGHTLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...MORE OF A WNW                
 DIRECTION WHICH IS LIMITING THE LAKE SUPERIOR CONNECTION OVER THE SE           
 HALF OF THE LAKE EFFECT AREA ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  DOMINANT BAND             
 THIS MORNING FELL APART AS DIURNAL HEATING DISRUPTED ITS                       
 ORGANIZATION...AND MORE OF CELLULAR NATURE TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW             
 SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON.  OVER THE LAST HOUR OR               
 SO...ONE BAND HAS BEEN TRYING TO GET ITS ACT TOGETHER RUNNING FROM             
 CHARLEVOIX TO GAYLORD...BUT SNOW AMOUNTS RECEIVED THUS FAR INDICATE            
 AROUND A 1-2 INCH RANGE HAS FALLEN WITHIN THE HEAVIEST BANDS.  WEAK            
 SHORTWAVE JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPSTREAM SHEAR AXIS HAS              
 BEEN HELPING TO INCREASE INVERSION HEIGHTS THIS                                
 AFTERNOON...ACCORDING TO MODEL DATA.  THIS WILL PROMOTE INCREASINGLY           
 FAVORABLE LAKE EFFECT REGIME GOING INTO THIS EVENING.  SNOW AND SNOW           
 ACCUMULATIONS ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH TOMORROW.              
 TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK              
 SOUTHEAST AS THE UPSTREAM SHEAR AXIS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE                
 TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE CWA.  WITH WINDS LOCKED IN THE 300-310                
 DIRECTION...EXPECT LAKE EFFECT TO RAMP UP THIS EVENING ONCE THE                
 DISRUPTION FROM DIURNAL HEATING CEASES...AND DEVELOP MORE DOMINANT             
 BANDS.  INVERSIONS HEIGHTS START OUT RESPECTABLE AT AROUND 6.5KFT              
 WHILE 850-700MB RH REMAINS GREATER THAN 80 PCT AND DELTA T/S STAY              
 AROUND 20C FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.  ADDITIONALLY...NAM/GFS BOTH                 
 DEPICT A WEAK LAKE INDUCED TROUGH AXIS FORMING OVER LAKE HURON AND             
 ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WHICH MAY HELP TO PROVIDE FURTHER CONVERGENCE             
 FOR SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER.  SNOW           
 AMOUNTS WILL BE TRICKY...AND IT ALL DEPENDS ON THE RE-ORGANIZATION             
 OF THE SNOW BANDS THIS EVENING.  IF ONE OR TWO DOMINANT BANDS CAN              
 FORM ONCE AGAIN...LOCATIONS WITHIN THIS BAND COULD SEE 3-6 INCHES              
 OVERNIGHT AROUND MANCELONA/ELMIRA/ALBA.  BECAUSE OF THIS                       
 UNCERTAINTY...WILL CONTINUE THE LAKE EFFECT HEADLINES OVER THE SAME            
 LOCATIONS...EVEN THOUGH REPORTS THUS FAR SUGGEST MINIMAL                       
 ACCUMULATIONS.                                                                 
 MARINE...PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT HAS BEEN ROUTINELY GUSTING GREATER THAN            
 35KTS THIS AFTERNOON.  CONDITIONS WILL NOT CHANGE THIS EVENING...AND           
 WILL CONTINUE THE GALE WARNING FROM THE STRAITS TO STURGEON POINT.             
 WEDNESDAY...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...AS WELL AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE            
 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WILL MOVE INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY            
 IN THE MORNING...AND PASS OVERHEAD DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEEP                  
 ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL DEVELOP UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRENGTHENING            
 SUBSIDENCE. LOW/MID LEVEL DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE AS INVERSION                  
 HEIGHTS DROP FROM AROUND 7000 FT AT 12Z WEDNESDAY TO AROUND 2500 FT            
 BY 00Z THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE W/NW DURING             
 THE MORNING AND THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT SW IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN            
 APPROACHING WARM FRONT. DELTA T`S WILL REMAIN AROUND 20 C DURING THE           
 MORNING AND THEN DROP TO MARGINAL LEVELS (AROUND 13 C) IN THE                  
 AFTERNOON. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY...             
 WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW REMAINING WITHIN AREAS              
 TARGETED BY W/NW FLOW DURING THE MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE                
 MINOR (I.E. UNDER AN INCH) DUE TO DIMINISHING SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND            
 LOSS OF CYCLONIC FLOW. TIP OF THE WARM FRONT WILL JUST CLIP ERN UPR            
 MICHIGAN...AS WILL DEEPER ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT.              
 LAKE CONTRIBUTION WILL EFFECTIVELY END DURING EARLY EVENING AS 850             
 MB TEMPS WARM THRU THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW LEVEL WINDS              
 SHIFT NEARLY STRAIGHT SOUTH. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN           
 ERN UPR MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE TIP OF THE WARM FRONT MOVES            
 THRU THE REGION. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A DRY BUT MAINLY CLOUDY FORECAST           
 FOR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY                   
 AFTERNOON WILL ONCE AGAIN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS...REACHING               
 INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY               
 DROP IN THE MID 20S UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF OVC SKIES AND ONGOING LOW           
 LEVEL WAA.                                                                     
 THURSDAY...LOW LEVEL WAA CONTINUES...AS ERN UPR MICHIGAN REMAINS ON            
 THE FRINGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM THE WARM FRONT TO THE              
 NORTH. A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR ERN UPR MICHIGAN               
 THURSDAY MORNING. DEEPER MOISTURE AND MUCH BETTER LIFT WILL BEGIN TO           
 ENTER NRN MICHIGAN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE UPSTREAM COLD           
 FRONT ENTERS THE WRN GREAT LAKES. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE               
 FRONT WELL SW OF MICHIGAN...WHICH WILL TEND TO SLOW EASTWARD                   
 PROGRESSION OF THE BOUNDARY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHWARD            
 INTO MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THIS LOW...AS WILL LOW LEVEL WARM AIR SERVING           
 TO COMPLICATE THE LOW LEVEL TEMPS PROFILE AND THUS THE PRECIP TYPE             
 FORECAST. WILL KEEP A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR SE              
 PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR NOW...AND BETTER DEFINE EXPECTED PRECIP TYPE           
 AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS. HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL WARM WELL             
 INTO THE 30S...WITH LOW TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID              
 20S IN ERN UPR MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S NEAR SAGINAW BAY.              
 FRIDAY THRU TUESDAY...SPLIT FLOW CONSISTING OF A DEEP 500 MB LOW               
 OVER THE US ROCKIES  AND ANOTHER DEEP LOW OVER THE ARCTIC CIRCLE               
 WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHING             
 ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE US. THREE DISTINCT SURFACE LOWS WILL                
 DEVELOP AND DEEPENING AHEAD OF THE SRN STREAM UPPER LOW. THE FIRST             
 LOW WILL TRACK NE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THRU SRN LOWER                 
 MICHIGAN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SECOND WILL TRACK FURTHER                
 SOUTH AND EAST OF MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY. THE THIRD SURFACE LOW WILL               
 FOLLOW THE SAME BASIC TRACK OF THE SECOND LOW...SWEEPING NORTH OF              
 THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON            
 WILL DROP INTO NRN MICHIGAN FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WORKWEEK                
 BEHIND THE THIRD SURFACE SYSTEM. IN THE MEANTIME...WARM AIR AHEAD OF           
 THE INITIAL LOW WILL SURGE INTO THE SAGINAW VALLEY...PROVIDING MIXED           
 PRECIP TO THIS REGION...WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW OVER THE REST OF THE             
 CWA FOR FRIDAY. CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THRU             
 THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS VERY           
 ACTIVE. LOW LEVEL TEMP PROFILE WILL REMAIN PLENTY COLD ENOUGH FOR              
 PRECIP TO BE OF THE FROZEN VARIETY FROM SATURDAY THRU TUESDAY. WILL            
 KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AS            
 THESE EVENTS DRAW CLOSER.                                                      
 &&                                                                             
 .APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                          
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING                                                       
     MIZ019-021-022-027-028 THROUGH TONIGHT.                                    
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT                                      
     MIZ008-020.                                                                
 GALE WARNING                                                                   
     LHZ345>348-LSZ321-322-LHZ341-342 THROUGH TONIGHT.                          
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                          
 405 PM EST TUE JAN 9 2007                                                      
 .SYNOPSIS...                                                                   
 20Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED TROUGHING            
 DIGGING DOWN THE WEST COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE PACIFIC               
 NW...RIDGING OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN AND A LARGE                
 TROUGH COVERING THE GREAT LAKES. WITHIN THIS LARGE TROUGH...A 510              
 DAM UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED HALF WAY BETWEEN LAKE SUPERIOR AND JAMES             
 BAY. 850MB TEMPS ARE FAIRLY COLD UNDER AND IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE             
 UPPER LOW...AS NOTED BY THE -27C TEMP AT PICKLE LAKE ONTARIO (CWPL)            
 AT 12Z. EVEN AWAY FROM THE UPPER LOW...INL AND MOOSONEE ONTARIO                
 REPORTED AROUND -18C AT 12Z. WITH 45 KT NW 850MB WINDS AT BOTH INL             
 AND CWPL...THESE COLD READINGS CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE CWA...                
 RESULTING IN PLENTY OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THESE               
 SNOW SHOWERS HAVE OVERALL BEEN WEAK DUE TO A COMBINATION OF FACTORS.           
 FIRST IS DRY AIR ADVECTION...NOTED BY BELOW ZERO F DEWPOINTS ON THE            
 NORTH SIDE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SECOND...INVERSION HEIGHTS AT MOST ARE            
 AROUND 7000 FT BASED ON THE 12Z TAMDAR SOUNDING FROM SAWYER.                   
 THIRD...THE FLOW IS MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL...CAUSING MULTI-PARALLEL             
 BANDS WHICH NORMALLY DO NOT PRODUCE MUCH SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY BY              
 THEMSELVES. ALTHOUGH THE SNOW MAY NOT BE THAT STRONG...THE WINDS               
 HAVE BEEN. MUCH OF THE 850MB WIND OBSERVED ON THE SOUNDINGS UPSTREAM           
 IS BEING MIXED DOWN TO THE LAKE SUPERIOR SURFACE DUE TO THE COLD               
 ADVECTION...AND GALE FORCE WINDS OR WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT           
 MANY SITES OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. AWAY FROM              
 THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.P....SKIES HAVE BEEN               
 MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY...THANKS TO THE DRY AIR ADVECTION. AS FAR AS              
 THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN GOES...A 1028MB HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WAS           
 CENTERED OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA WHILE 980S MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER            
 NE QUEBEC.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WED)...                                               
 UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST            
 OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE RIDGE OVER MONTANA BEING PUSHED              
 EASTWARD BY THE BRITISH COLUMBIA TROUGH. BY 00Z THU...THE RIDGE                
 AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE LOCATED OVER THE CWA...ALLOWING WARMER                   
 TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. UNTIL THEN...HOWEVER...              
 850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE WITH READINGS              
 AROUND -20C THIS EVENING ONLY WARMING TO -13 TO -17C BY 12Z WED.               
 SINCE LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 4C...LAKE EFFECT SNOW               
 SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. ONE DIFFERENCE TONIGHT FROM TODAY...                    
 THOUGH...WILL BE THE WIND DIRECTION BACKING AS THE SURFACE RIDGE               
 OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA MOVES TO WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN BY 12Z. THIS            
 BACKING...COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP               
 AMOUNTS DOWN IN THE WESTERN U.P.. WITH THE BETTER FETCH LENGTH ON              
 EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...ALLOWING FOR A LITTLE MOISTENING...HAVE KEPT           
 2 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS GOING TONIGHT IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE                  
 EASTERN U.P.. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES MOVING ACROSS ON WED              
 DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE BEING PUSHED EASTWARD...THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW            
 IS EXPECTED TO END FOR THE NORTHERN U.P.. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERLY              
 WIND DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO RESULT             
 IN DECENT DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFTING ACROSS THE CWA...AS SHOWN BY THE             
 NAM AND GFS. ALTHOUGH SOME DRY AIR EXISTS IN THE 750-900MB LAYER...            
 THE VERTICAL MOTION DUE TO THE WARM ADVECTION MAY BE ENOUGH TO                 
 PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE CWA            
 IN THE AFTERNOON WHERE BETTER MOISTURE IS PRESENT. THEREFORE HAVE              
 RAISED POPS. ALSO HAVE HIGHER POPS IN SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY              
 WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND COOL TEMPS AT 850MB (RISING TO -7C BY 00Z            
 THU OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN) MAY BRING LAKE EFFECT SNOW THERE.             
 BLUSTERY CONDITIONS OBSERVED TODAY WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE TONIGHT...           
 AND ESPECIALLY BY WED MORNING AS THE RIDGE MOVES IN. THE DECREASE...           
 ALONG WITH SOME CLEARING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN U.P. MAY ALLOW TEMPS              
 TO FALL TO NEAR ZERO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DRY ATMOSPHERE.            
 AS THE RIDGE CROSSES THE CWA ON WED...SOUTHERLY WINDS PICKING BACK             
 UP WILL HELP TO WARM THE TEMPERATURES...BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE                  
 SURFACE...ESPECIALLY IN DOWNSLOPE AREAS. HOWEVER...THE WIND WILL               
 MAKE IT FEEL COOLER SINCE READINGS ARE ONLY EXPECTED IN THE 20S TO             
 AT MOST 30F PER MET/MAV GUIDANCE.                                              
 .LONG TERM (WED NIGHT THROUGH TUE)...                                          
 WED NIGHT/THU...SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK FROM SRN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA            
 WED EVENING TO ONTARIO THU AFTN WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PASSING JUST           
 N OF LAKE SUPERIOR. STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE THE RULE WED              
 NIGHT...BUT WITH FOCUS OF STRONGEST ASCENT/DEEP LAYER MOISTENING               
 GENERALLY ACROSS N HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO ONTARIO.                         
 CANADIAN/GFS/UKMET RUNS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT ON THIS. MIXING              
 RATIOS OF 2-3G/KG ON 290K SFC (ROUGHLY 700-750MB) SUPPORT GENERAL              
 3-5 INCH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN AXIS OF BEST LIFT/MOISTENING WHICH              
 WILL BE JUST N OF HERE...BUT SRN FRINGE OF SNOW SHOULD IMPACT NRN              
 AND ERN UPPER MI. HAVE PAINTED 1 TO MAYBE 2 INCH ACCUMULATIONS ON              
 THE KEWEENAW. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE E WHERE THERE              
 MIGHT ALSO BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN SSW FLOW OFF              
 LAKE MICHIGAN. TEMPS WED NIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY             
 RISE FROM EARLY EVENING READINGS DUE TO BLUSTERY S WINDS/WAA AND               
 CLOUD COVER. 850MB WINDS OF 50 KTS AND 8MB/6HR PRES FALL MAX PASSING           
 JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL WORK TO KEEP SFC WINDS GUSTY. SHOULD              
 ESPECIALLY BE GUSTY OVER THE ERN FCST AREA WHICH IS FAVORED IN S               
 WIND SITUATIONS (LOCATIONS SUCH AS KISQ/KERY/GRAND MARAIS AND                  
 MARQUETTE).                                                                    
 PERSISTENT...BUT WEAKER ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL CONTINUE THU SO ANY             
 LINGERING -SN SHOULD DIMINISH OR EVEN END. SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW ARE               
 WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...SO COLDER AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO              
 SLIP BACK INTO THE AREA. IN FACT...IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL LATE THU                
 NIGHT THAT AIRMASS BECOMES COLD ENOUGH TO GET LES GOING AGAIN OFF              
 LAKE SUPERIOR.                                                                 
 THU NIGHT/FRI...COMBINATION OF RIGHT ENTRANCE OF JET STREAK RUNNING            
 FROM JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR TO QUEBEC AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTING            
 INTO THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW SPREADING N OF           
 THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THRU UPPER MI THU AFTN/EVENING. HAVE             
 INCLUDED MID RANGE CHC POPS LATE THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING OVER THE SE             
 FCST AREA. MEANWHILE...LES SHOULD PICK UP A BIT OFF LAKE SUPERIOR              
 FRI AS LAKE-850MB DELTA-T INCREASES TO 13-18C WITH DECENT MOISTURE             
 PROFILE FOR A TIME.                                                            
 SAT THRU TUE...WILL BE A COLD PERIOD THAT COULD POTENTIALLY TURN               
 QUITE COLD. OTHER THAN THE COLD...MAIN FCST CHALLENGE IS THE                   
 POSSIBILITY OF A WIDESPREAD SYNOPTIC SNOW OVER THE FCST AREA DURING            
 THE WEEKEND. 00Z/12Z RUNS IN GENERAL HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A BETTER              
 POTENTIAL FOR SNOW COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS THERE ARE A FEW MODEL              
 RUNS INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT NOW. ON SAT...ATTENTION               
 WILL BE ON ENERGY OVER THE SW CONUS. AS SYSTEM LIFTS NE...ONE                  
 COMPLICATION IS THE DEGREE OF INTERACTION WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY                
 DROPPING S THRU CNTRL CANADA. 00Z UKMET HAS A LITTLE MORE                      
 INTERACTION THAN THE OTHER MODELS AND ACTUALLY BRINGS A STRONG                 
 NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE INTO THE UPPER LAKES SUN WITH ASSOCIATED               
 984MB SFC LOW INTO NCNTRL WI BY 00Z MON. WOULD END UP BEING A MIXED            
 PCPN EVENT FOR A GOOD PART OF FCST AREA WITH HVY SNOW OVER THE FAR             
 W. GULF MOISTURE INFLOW WOULD BE EXCELLENT TO PROVIDE HVY PCPN. THIS           
 IS A HUGE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS UKMET RUNS WHICH EITHER HELD ENERGY             
 BACK OVER THE SW OR BROUGHT A WEAK WAVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. 12Z              
 UKMET TRENDED WEAKER...BUT STILL HAS A DECENT SFC LOW TRACKING THRU            
 NRN LWR MI WHICH WOULD PROVIDE WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO FCST             
 AREA SUN. ECMWF HAS TRENDED STRONGER WITH SHORTWAVE AND FARTHER N              
 WITH SFC LOW (SRN PLAINS TO NW IL ACROSS NRN LWR MI)...BUT IT                  
 MAINTAINS THE OVERALL POSITIVE TILT TROF ORIENTATION THAT HAS BEEN             
 THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION IN RECENT DAYS. STILL...00Z RUN OFFERS A                
 QUICK HITTING MDT/HVY SNOW EVENT FOR FCST AREA SAT NIGHT/SUN...                
 ESPECIALLY NW 2/3RDS. 12Z ECMWF IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO 00Z. 00Z/06Z            
 GFS SOLUTIONS ARE SIMILAR TO THE BULK OF ITS RUNS THE LAST FEW                 
 DAYS...WHICH IS TO BRING SFC LOW THRU SE LWR MI. THIS WOULD BRING              
 NRN EDGE OF SYNOPTIC SNOW INTO FCST AREA WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT UNDER           
 N OR NE WINDS. GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW ONE MEMBER WITH SFC LOW TRACKING             
 INTO ERN UPPER MI...BUT REMAINDER OF MEMBERS ARE CLUSTRED CLOSE TO             
 00Z/06Z OPERATIONAL GFS TRACK WITH ONLY TIMING ISSUES. 12Z GFS HAS             
 SHIFTED LOW TRACK S A BIT. 00Z CANADIAN WAS MOST SUPPRESSED WITH SFC           
 LOW TRACK...BUT 12Z RUN NOW BRINGS A 995MB SFC LOW INTO SRN LWR MI             
 MON. OVERALL...MODEL RUNS SINCE 12Z/8JAN SUGGEST A BETTER POTENTIAL            
 OF GETTING SYNOPTIC SNOW INTO UPPER MI...SO WILL INCLUDE CHC POPS              
 ALL AREAS LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN. SYSTEM WILL OBVIOUSLY BE SOMETHING TO            
 WATCH OVER THE COMING DAYS AS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT             
 SNOW. WILL MAKE A MENTION OF THIS POSSIBILITY IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER             
 OUTLOOK. IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM...COLDER AIR WILL DUMP INTO THE             
 UPPER LAKES. 00Z GFS BROUGHT BACK THE IDEA OF 850MB TEMPS HEADING              
 TOWARD -30C LATE MON...BUT THAT IS STILL AN OUTLIER SOLUTION. WILL             
 MORE LIKELY SEE 850MB TEMPS OF -20 TO -25C...SO BLO NORMAL TEMPS               
 SHOULD BE THE RULE EARLY NEXT WEEK. OF COURSE...LES WILL CONTINUE              
 NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.                                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLSN ADVY UNTIL 4 AM WED MIZ006-007-085.                 
  GALE WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR AND LSZ245>248.                                    
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 AJ (SHORT TERM)                                                                
 ROLFSON (LONG TERM)                                                            
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                            
 353 PM EST TUE JAN 9 2007                                                      
 .DISCUSSION...18Z SURFACE/RUC ANALYSIS AND VIS/IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY             
 SHOW BROAD LOW AND UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES              
 AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS.  COLD ADVECTION AT            
 850MB IS CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS HELPING TO INCREASE              
 OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY CREATING LAKE-850MB DELTA T/S AROUND 20C.                
 WINDS HAVE BACKED SLIGHTLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...MORE OF A WNW                
 DIRECTION WHICH IS LIMITING THE LAKE SUPERIOR CONNECTION OVER THE SE           
 HALF OF THE LAKE EFFECT AREA ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  DOMINANT BAND             
 THIS MORNING FELL APART AS DIURNAL HEATING DISRUPTED ITS                       
 ORGANIZATION...AND MORE OF CELLULAR NATURE TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW             
 SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON.  OVER THE LAST HOUR OR               
 SO...ONE BAND HAS BEEN TRYING TO GET ITS ACT TOGETHER RUNNING FROM             
 CHARLEVOIX TO GAYLORD...BUT SNOW AMOUNTS RECEIVED THUS FAR INDICATE            
 AROUND A 1-2 INCH RANGE HAS FALLEN WITHIN THE HEAVIEST BANDS.  WEAK            
 SHORTWAVE JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPSTREAM SHEAR AXIS HAS              
 BEEN HELPING TO INCREASE INVERSION HEIGHTS THIS                                
 AFTERNOON...ACCORDING TO MODEL DATA.  THIS WILL PROMOTE INCREASINGLY           
 FAVORABLE LAKE EFFECT REGIME GOING INTO THIS EVENING.  SNOW AND SNOW           
 ACCUMULATIONS ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH TOMORROW.              
 TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK              
 SOUTHEAST AS THE UPSTREAM SHEAR AXIS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE                
 TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE CWA.  WITH WINDS LOCKED IN THE 300-310                
 DIRECTION...EXPECT LAKE EFFECT TO RAMP UP THIS EVENING ONCE THE                
 DISRUPTION FROM DIURNAL HEATING CEASES...AND DEVELOP MORE DOMINANT             
 BANDS.  INVERSIONS HEIGHTS START OUT RESPECTABLE AT AROUND 6.5KFT              
 WHILE 850-700MB RH REMAINS GREATER THAN 80 PCT AND DELTA T/S STAY              
 AROUND 20C FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.  ADDITIONALLY...NAM/GFS BOTH                 
 DEPICT A WEAK LAKE INDUCED TROUGH AXIS FORMING OVER LAKE HURON AND             
 ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WHICH MAY HELP TO PROVIDE FURTHER CONVERGENCE             
 FOR SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER.  SNOW           
 AMOUNTS WILL BE TRICKY...AND IT ALL DEPENDS ON THE RE-ORGANIZATION             
 OF THE SNOW BANDS THIS EVENING.  IF ONE OR TWO DOMINANT BANDS CAN              
 FORM ONCE AGAIN...LOCATIONS WITHIN THIS BAND COULD SEE 3-6 INCHES              
 OVERNIGHT AROUND MANCELONA/ELMIRA/ALBA.  BECAUSE OF THIS                       
 UNCERTAINTY...WILL CONTINUE THE LAKE EFFECT HEADLINES OVER THE SAME            
 LOCATIONS...EVEN THOUGH REPORTS THUS FAR SUGGEST MINIMAL                       
 ACCUMULATIONS.                                                                 
 MARINE...PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT HAS BEEN ROUTINELY GUSTING GREATER THAN            
 35KTS THIS AFTERNOON.  CONDITIONS WILL NOT CHANGE THIS EVENING...AND           
 WILL CONTINUE THE GALE WARNING FROM THE STRAITS TO STURGEON POINT.             
 WEDNESDAY...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...AS WELL AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE            
 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WILL MOVE INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY            
 IN THE MORNING...AND PASS OVERHEAD DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEEP                  
 ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL DEVELOP UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRENGTHENING            
 SUBSIDENCE. LOW/MID LEVEL DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE AS INVERSION                  
 HEIGHTS DROP FROM AROUND 7000 FT AT 12Z WEDNESDAY TO AROUND 2500 FT            
 BY 00Z THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE W/NW DURING             
 THE MORNING AND THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT SW IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN            
 APPROACHING WARM FRONT. DELTA T`S WILL REMAIN AROUND 20 C DURING THE           
 MORNING AND THEN DROP TO MARGINAL LEVELS (AROUND 13 C) IN THE                  
 AFTERNOON. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY...             
 WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW REMAINING WITHIN AREAS              
 TARGETED BY W/NW FLOW DURING THE MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE                
 MINOR (I.E. UNDER AN INCH) DUE TO DIMINISHING SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND            
 LOSS OF CYCLONIC FLOW. TIP OF THE WARM FRONT WILL JUST CLIP ERN UPR            
 MICHIGAN...AS WILL DEEPER ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT.              
 LAKE CONTRIBUTION WILL EFFECTIVELY END DURING EARLY EVENING AS 850             
 MB TEMPS WARM THRU THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW LEVEL WINDS              
 SHIFT NEARLY STRAIGHT SOUTH. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN           
 ERN UPR MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE TIP OF THE WARM FRONT MOVES            
 THRU THE REGION. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A DRY BUT MAINLY CLOUDY FORECAST           
 FOR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY                   
 AFTERNOON WILL ONCE AGAIN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS...REACHING               
 INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY               
 DROP IN THE MID 20S UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF OVC SKIES AND ONGOING LOW           
 LEVEL WAA.                                                                     
 THURSDAY...LOW LEVEL WAA CONTINUES...AS ERN UPR MICHIGAN REMAINS ON            
 THE FRINGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM THE WARM FRONT TO THE              
 NORTH. A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR ERN UPR MICHIGAN               
 THURSDAY MORNING. DEEPER MOISTURE AND MUCH BETTER LIFT WILL BEGIN TO           
 ENTER NRN MICHIGAN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE UPSTREAM COLD           
 FRONT ENTERS THE WRN GREAT LAKES. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE               
 FRONT WELL SW OF MICHIGAN...WHICH WILL TEND TO SLOW EASTWARD                   
 PROGRESSION OF THE BOUNDARY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHWARD            
 INTO MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THIS LOW...AS WILL LOW LEVEL WARM AIR SERVING           
 TO COMPLICATE THE LOW LEVEL TEMPS PROFILE AND THUS THE PRECIP TYPE             
 FORECAST. WILL KEEP A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR SE              
 PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR NOW...AND BETTER DEFINE EXPECTED PRECIP TYPE           
 AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS. HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL WARM WELL             
 INTO THE 30S...WITH LOW TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID              
 20S IN ERN UPR MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S NEAR SAGINAW BAY.              
 FRIDAY THRU TUESDAY...SPLIT FLOW CONSISTING OF A DEEP 500 MB LOW               
 OVER THE US ROCKIES  AND ANOTHER DEEP LOW OVER THE ARCTIC CIRCLE               
 WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHING             
 ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE US. THREE DISTINCT SURFACE LOWS WILL                
 DEVELOP AND DEEPENING AHEAD OF THE SRN STREAM UPPER LOW. THE FIRST LOW         
 WILL TRACK NE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THRU SRN LOWER MICHIGAN            
 FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SECOND WILL TRACK FURTHER SOUTH AND               
 EAST OF MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY. THE THIRD SURFACE LOW WILL FOLLOW THE              
 SAME BASIC TRACK OF THE SECOND LOW...SWEEPING NORTH OF THE OHIO                
 VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL DROP           
 INTO NRN MICHIGAN FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WORKWEEK BEHIND THE               
 THIRD SURFACE SYSTEM. IN THE MEANTIME...WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE                  
 INITIAL LOW WILL SURGE INTO THE SAGINAW VALLEY...PROVIDING MIXED               
 PRECIP TO THIS REGION...WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW OVER THE REST OF THE             
 CWA FOR FRIDAY. CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THRU             
 THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS VERY           
 ACTIVE. LOW LEVEL TEMP PROFILE WILL REMAIN PLENTY COLD ENOUGH FOR              
 PRECIP TO BE OF THE FROZEN VARIETY FROM SATURDAY THRU TUESDAY. WILL            
 KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AS            
 THESE EVENTS DRAW CLOSER.                                                      
 &&                                                                             
 .APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                          
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING                                                       
     MIZ019-021-022-027-028 THROUGH TONIGHT.                                    
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT                                      
     MIZ008-020.                                                                
 GALE WARNING                                                                   
     LHZ347-348 THROUGH TONIGHT.                                                
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                          
 1138 AM EST TUE JAN 9 2007                                                     
 .SYNOPSIS...                                                                   
 16Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND 12Z RAOBS SHOWED UPPER TROUGHING COVERING             
 ALL OF THE GREAT LAKES WHILE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN               
 ROCKIES INTO ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. WITHIN THIS TROUGH...A 510              
 DAM UPPER LOW CAN BE SEEN MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST ONTARIO. 850MB               
 TEMPS ARE FAIRLY COLD UNDER AND IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE UPPER                  
 LOW...AS NOTED BY THE -27C TEMP AT PICKLE LAKE ONTARIO (CWPL). EVEN            
 AWAY FROM THE UPPER LOW...INL AND MOOSONEE ONTARIO REPORTED AROUND             
 -18C. WITH 45 KT NW 850MB WINDS AT BOTH INL AND CWPL...THESE COLD              
 READINGS CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE CWA...RESULTING IN PLENTY OF LAKE           
 EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THESE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE OVERALL BEEN            
 WEAK DUE TO A COMBINATION OF FACTORS. FIRST IS DRY AIR ADVECTION...            
 NOTED BY BELOW ZERO F DEWPOINTS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.            
 SECOND...INVERSION HEIGHTS AT MOST ARE AROUND 7000 FT BASED ON THE             
 12Z TAMDAR SOUNDING FROM SAWYER. THIRD...THE FLOW IS MAINLY                    
 UNIDIRECTIONAL...CAUSING MULTI-PARALLEL BANDS WHICH NORMALLY DO NOT            
 PRODUCE MUCH SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY BY THEMSELVES. ALTHOUGH THE SNOW            
 MAY NOT BE THAT STRONG...THE WINDS HAVE BEEN. MUCH OF THE WIND SPEED           
 OBSERVED ON THE SOUNDINGS UPSTREAM IS BEING MIXED DOWN TO THE LAKE             
 SUPERIOR SURFACE DUE TO THE COLD ADVECTION...AND GALE FORCE WINDS OR           
 WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT MANY SITES OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF            
 THE LAKE. AWAY FROM THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL                  
 U.P....SKIES HAVE BEEN MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY...THANKS TO THE DRY AIR            
 ADVECTION. AS FAR AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN GOES...A 1028MB              
 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS WHILE 980S MB LOW             
 PRESSURE WAS OVER NE QUEBEC.                                                   
 &&                                                                             
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BE PUSHED EASTWARD TO           
 THE PLAINS BY THIS EVENING BY A TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE WEST COAST             
 OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS RIDGE IS PROGGED TO PUSH THE UPPER TROUGH            
 OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AND THE UPPER LOW OVER NE ONTARIO...EASTWARD.           
 THEREFORE UPPER MICHIGAN WILL NOT SEE THE COLD 850MB TEMPS OBSERVED            
 AT PICKLE LAKE...BUT READINGS AROUND -20C ARE EXPECTED OVER LAKE               
 SUPERIOR BY 22Z. THEREFORE MULTI-PARALLEL BAND LAKE EFFECT SNOW                
 SHOWERS WILL PERSIST. INVERSION HEIGHTS SHOULD RISE AS THE COLD AIR            
 ADVECTS IN...WHICH MAY CAUSE THE LAKE EFFECT TO INTENSIFY.                     
 HOWEVER...SINCE THE COLD AIR IS ALSO BRINGING IN DRIER DEWPOINTS...            
 THE EFFECT OF THE INVERSION HEIGHT INCREASE MAY BE NEGATED. IN                 
 ADDITION...WITH COLDER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN OVER THE RELATIVELY             
 WARM WATER...CLOUD BASES MAY RISE ABOVE THE SNOW GROWTH LAYER...OR             
 THE SNOW GROWTH LAYER WILL BECOME VERY SMALL. ANOTHER PROBLEM THAT             
 HAS BEEN OCCURRING FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THIS MORNING IS THE STRONG             
 WINDS WHICH ARE BOTH BREAKING PART THE SNOWFLAKES AND NOT ALLOWING             
 SNOW TO STAY IN ONE SPOT AND ACCUMULATE. FOR NOW HAVE DECIDED TO               
 CONTINUE THE GOING FORECAST...WITH AMOUNTS NEAR THE MINIMUM FOR                
 ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE EASTERN U.P.. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST             
 IN THE WESTERN U.P. DUE TO THE SHORTER FETCH FOR NW WINDS ACROSS               
 WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.                                                         
 SINCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TIGHT THROUGH THIS           
 AFTERNOON AND COLD AIR ADVECTION IS OCCURRING...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN            
 BLUSTERY OR EVEN INTENSIFY A BIT. BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM GRANITE           
 ISLAND AND GRAND MARAIS...HAVE EXPANDED THE GALE WARNING TO INCLUDE            
 A FEW MORE LAKE SUPERIOR NEARSHORE ZONES AND ALSO CHANGE OUR LAKE              
 EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY TO A LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW                    
 ADVISORY.                                                                      
 AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...NOT MUCH RISE IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE COLD           
 AIR ADVECTION. THEREFORE HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES FROM THE             
 PREVIOUS FORECAST.                                                             
 ZFP...WSW AND GRID UPDATES ALREADY OUT.                                        
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE SNOWFALL                    
 POTENTIAL FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                               
 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC DEPICT A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN              
 CANADA AND A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. WEAK SHORTWAVE             
 SLIDING DOWN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES RIDGE IS OVER SOUTHERN U.P. A              
 DEEPER SHORTWAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS STRETCHING INTO                   
 MISSOURI. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN                  
 SASKATCHEWAN. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A RIDGE OVER WESTERN DAKOTAS            
 RUNNING NORTH THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN AND A DEEP LOW OVER EASTERN                 
 QUEBEC. A SURFACE LOW IS MOVING ASHORE OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH                   
 COLUMBIA...WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHING SOUTH FROM IT THROUGH                  
 CENTRAL MONTANA. STRONG WINDS AND LIGHT SNOW IS ACCOMPANYING THE               
 SHORTWAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS OTHERWISE LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS                   
 OCCURRING. 850MB TEMPERATURE ANALYSIS SHOW A POCKET OF COLD AIR OVER           
 WESTERN ONTARIO...WHERE THE TEMPERATURES DROP TO -24C. THIS IS                 
 PRODUCING A DELTA-T OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR OF AROUND 21C.                 
 SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY BELOW 900MB. THE LOWEST INVERSION IS            
 AROUND 3K FEET WHICH APPEARS TO BE HAMPERING LES SNOW GROWTH.                  
 A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE                 
 TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM NORTHEAST MANITOBA THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO              
 INTO SOUTHERN JAMES BAY TODAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE            
 JAMES BAY LOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO EASTERN            
 U.P...WHILE THE DAKOTA SHORTWAVE SLIDES INTO EXTREME WESTERN LAKE              
 SUPERIOR AND EASTERN WISCONSIN. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO              
 MINNESOTA AND WESTERN ONTARIO. A SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN             
 BRITISH COLUMBIA MOVING INTO WESTERN ALBERTA. THE COLD POOL OF                 
 AIR WILL SLIP INTO EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO AND SPILL OVER INTO EASTERN            
 LAKE SUPERIOR CAUSING A LAKE-850MB DELTA-T OF 24C. THE INVERSION               
 WILL LIFT TODAY REACHING 5K FEET OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND TO             
 AROUND 7K FEET OVER EAST. SOUNDING FORECAST DEPICTS A SATURATED                
 LAYER BETWEEN 900MB AND 850MB OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.                  
 CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE DRIER BELOW 900MB. SURFACE              
 TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER WESTERN ONTARIO...AND            
 -4C TO -9C OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA. TRAJECTORY PROGS INDICATE THAT              
 THE ONTARIO AIR MASS WILL SLIDE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THUS...THE             
 INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS...HOWEVER...             
 THE AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED. SURFACE WINDS WILL            
 REMAIN STRONG (25 TO 35 KTS) OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WILL ALSO                
 SHORTEN THE EFFECTIVE FETCH ACROSS THE LAKE. THUS EXPECT SNOWFALL              
 AMOUNTS TO BE ON THE ORDER TO 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE KEWEENAW                
 PENINSULA AND OVER THE SNOW PRONE AREAS OF EASTERN U.P.                        
 MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. THE ONTARIO SHORTWAVE            
 WILL SWING INTO SOUTHWEST QUEBEC DRAWING THE WEAK SHORTWAVE QUICKLY            
 ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. Q-VECTORS SUGGEST MOSTLY                     
 DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL           
 SHIFT INTO MANITOBA. THE SOUNDING FORECAST SHOW THE INVERSION WILL             
 LOWER OVERNIGHT TO 2.5K FEET OVER THE WEST TO 4.5K FEET OVER THE               
 EAST. WHERE LES SHOULD CONTINUE. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL            
 MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEAKENING THE GRADIENT WINDS. THUS THE             
 WINDS SHOULD DIE DOWN INCREASING THE FETCH LENGTH OVER THE EASTERN             
 PART OF THE LAKE. THIS SEEMS TO FAVOR A BETTER POTENTIAL SNOWFALL              
 OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES.                                                     
 THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WHILE A              
 MID LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST MANITOBA ON WEDNESDAY. THE                  
 SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST MANITOBA DRAGGING A COLD             
 FRONT INTO THE DAKOTAS. THE SURFACE RIDGE WOULD DEVELOP OVER EASTERN           
 U.S. SLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF THE MANITOBA LOW AND MAY EVEN DIVERT           
 IT A LITTLE NORTHEAST. 850MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST.           
 THE DELTA-T`S WILL LOWER TO AROUND 15C AS WARM AIR ADVECTS IN FROM             
 THE SOUTHWEST IN THE FLOW AROUND THE LOW OVER MANITOBA. 290K                   
 ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SUGGEST FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL ASCENT                
 ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. DEEP MOISTURE IS            
 DEPICTED TO PASS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...              
 ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND LOW LEVEL ADIABATIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE             
 COOL 850MB TEMPERATURES APPEARS TO GIVE A CHANCE OF DEVELOPING SOME            
 SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE LACK OF INSTABILITY IN THE MID LEVELS...             
 AND THE SHORT TIME PERIOD OF DEEP MOISTURE SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA           
 WILL SET THE PACE FOR THE AMOUNT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS.                         
 THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER WISCONSIN WILL RACE ACROSS THE FORECAST           
 AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL SPEED INTO THE CWQT AREA            
 DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN U.P. MODELS SUPPORT HAVE                    
 SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA.               
 ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ADD THE LIFT TO           
 DEVELOP SNOWS ACROSS THE AREA.                                                 
 THE SHORTWAVE WILL SAIL ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO...AND REMAIN NORTH OF           
 THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE             
 FORECAST AREA. DELTA-T`S OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE AROUND 16C. COLD           
 AIR WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA WITH AN 850MB THERMAL TROUGH OF            
 AROUND -22C MOVING INTO MANITOBA AND NORTH DAKOTA. LAKE EFFECT SNOW            
 STILL SHOULD HANG IN THERE. DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL BE THE           
 LIMITING FACTOR AGAIN. THERE WILL BE ONLY A NARROW LAYER OF MOISTURE           
 BETWEEN 850MB AND 900MB. ANY SNOW FALL SHOULD BE LIGHT.                        
 A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST             
 AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE...THE SHORTWAVES WILL STAY IN THE           
 FLOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE EASTERN U.P.           
 ALLOWING COLD AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION. A POOL OF COLD AIR WILL           
 SETTLE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND WESTERN ONTARIO. A DELTA-T OF 22C            
 WILL OCCUR OVER ALONG THE NORTHWEST SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. A                  
 LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND           
 SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PRODUCE A NORTH              
 WIND ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW                  
 SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.P. THE DRY AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL             
 LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL.                                                  
 &&                                                                             
 .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM WED                     
     MIZ006-007-085.                                                            
  GALE WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR AND LSZ245>248.                                    
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 AJ (UPDATE)                                                                    
 DLG (PREV DISCUSSION)                                                          
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                            
 1030 AM EST TUE JAN 9 2007                                                     
 .UPDATE...THE FIRST DECENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT IN A LONG TIME               
 CONTINUES ACROSS THE CWA.  LATEST SURFACE/RUC ANALYSIS AND                     
 VIS/IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN            
 AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.             
 NORTHWEST WINDS BLOWING MINUS 12C AIR PER 12Z APX SOUNDING OVER +4             
 LAKE WATERS CONTINUE TO GENERATE BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS BELOW                   
 INVERSION HEIGHTS OF ABOUT 5KFT.  SOME OF THESE BANDS HAVE BEEN                
 LOCALLY INTENSE THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY A DOMINATE BAND THAT RAN             
 FROM ABOUT CHARLEVOIX TO GAYLORD DROPPING VISIBILITIES TO AROUND A             
 QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.  OUTSIDE OF THIS BAND...VISIBILITIES HAVE               
 GENERALLY REMAINED ABOVE ABOUT 1.5 MILES.  SEVERAL CALLS MADE TO               
 SNOW SPOTTERS ACROSS THE AREA REVEALED LIGHT SNOW OUTSIDE OF THE               
 LAKE EFFECT WARNING COUNTIES...WITH WHITEFISH POINT ONLY REPORTING             
 ABOUT 3 INCHES OVER THE LAST 12 HRS...WHILE PETOSKEY AND TRAVERSE              
 CITY HAVE ALSO RECEIVED 1 TO 2 INCHES SINCE MIDNIGHT.                          
 OBVIOUSLY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND SNOW AMOUNTS ARE THE PRIMARY                  
 FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.                                      
 ONGOING FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.  LATEST RADAR SHOWING            
 SIGNS OF LOW LEVEL WINDS BACKING SLIGHTLY AS THE DOMINANT BAND HAS             
 MIGRATED EAST OF INDIAN RIVER AND GAYLORD.  STILL...LAKE EFFECT                
 PARAMETERS WILL CONTINUE TO GET BETTER AS THE DAY WEARS ON.                    
 UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SE             
 THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL PUSH INVERSION HEIGHTS UP TO AROUND 6KFT           
 WHILE COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE LAKE-850MB DELTA T/S            
 TO AROUND 20C BY 00Z. WITH THE SLIGHT BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL                 
 WINDS...SOME OF THE LAKE SUPERIOR CONNECTION MAY BE LOST.  EVEN                
 SO... PARAMETERS WILL BE PLENTY FAVORABLE ACROSS THE BIG FIVE                  
 (CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...KALKASKA...OTSEGO...CRAWFORD) TO ACCUMULATE             
 2-3 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON.  HAVE LOWERED SNOW AMOUNTS OVER EASTERN             
 UPPER TO ABOUT AN INCH AND A HALF SINCE SNOW REPORTS DO NOT INDICATE           
 MUCH MORE THAN THIS SO FAR.  WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON GRAND                 
 TRAVERSE...LEELANAU...AND EMMET COUNTY FOR POTENTIAL UPGRADES...BUT            
 DO NOT ANTICIPATE CHANGES AT THIS TIME.                                        
 FINALLY...PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT HAS BEEN GUSTING OCCASIONALLY TO 33 TO            
 35 KNOTS.  WITH 925 MB WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY           
 COMBINED WITH COASTAL CONVERGENCE...HAVE HOISTED GALE WARNINGS FROM            
 THE BRIDGE TO STURGEON POINT                                                   
 ZONES OUT SHORTLY.                                                             
 MPC                                                                            
 PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 442 AM EST TUE JAN 9 2007                      
 ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...986 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER               
 SOUTHEAST QUEBEC WITH 1044 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES.                  
 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS                 
 ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. APX RADAR SHOWED RETURNS ON THE               
 INCREASE OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND                
 NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AS LAKE EFFECT BEGINS TO GET ITS ACT                  
 TOGETHER. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE EXTENT            
 OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...ACCUMULATIONS AND HEADLINES FOR TODAY            
 INTO TONIGHT.                                                                  
 TODAY AND TONIGHT...COLD AIR CONTINUES TO POUR OVER THE RELATIVELY             
 WARMER WATERS OF THE GREAT LAKES. IN ADDITION...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW             
 WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT. HELPING           
 THE CAUSE WILL BE AT LEAST TWO DISTINCT SHORT WAVES EVIDENT ON WATER           
 VAPOR LOOP WHICH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND               
 EVENING WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE ACTIVITY ONGOING AT THAT TIME. LAKE               
 EFFECT SNOW PARAMETERS ARE IMPRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE INCREASING AS              
 THE DAY WEARS ON (MEAN 900-700 MB RH 55 PERCENT AT 12Z INCREASES TO            
 85 PERCENT BY 00Z WED). INVERSION HEIGHTS INCREASE FROM A LITTLE               
 UNDER 4K FEET TO ABOUT 5500 FEET TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE             
 FALLING TO ABOUT 2500 FEET BY 12Z WED. WINDS REMAIN LOCKED IN OUT OF           
 THE NORTHWEST AND LAKE/850 MB DELTA TS INCREASE FROM THE FAVORABLE             
 UPPER TEENS TO THE VERY FAVORABLE LOWER 20S BY THIS EVENING. THIS IS           
 EXPECTED TO SET THE STAGE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE                
 SNOWBELTS OF EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. LOCAL                  
 GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MODERATE TO PERHAPS HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS. THE FACT            
 THAT ACTIVITY IS ALREADY LOOKING PRETTY GOOD AND THAT MOISTURE/OVER            
 LAKE INSTABILITY WILL GET EVEN BETTER AS WELL AS AN ADDED BOOST FROM           
 THE SHORTWAVES WILL LEAD TO THE ISSUANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS          
 FOR CHARLEVOIX... ANTRIM...OTSEGO...KALKASKA AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES             
 AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORIES FOR CHIPPEWA AND LEELANAU COUNTIES.            
 ACCUMULATIONS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE SNOWBELTS OF                    
 NORTHWEST LOWER ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 6 AND 10 INCHES WHILE            
 ACROSS CHIPPEWA COUNTY BETWEEN 4 AND 8 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER              
 AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE NEAR WHITEFISH POINT AND                   
 PARADISE. IN ADDITION...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER            
 GUSTS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. HIGHS TODAY IN THE MIDDLE            
 20S TO AROUND 30. LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE TEENS.                            
 MARINE...950 MB WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING IS             
 EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WINDS JUST UNDER GALE FORCE SO SMALL CRAFT               
 ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL NEARSHORE ZONES.                             
 WEDNESDAY...LINGERING LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT TO START THEN           
 UPPER LEVEL RIDGING/WAA/DECREASING MOISTURE SHOULD PUT THE KABASH ON           
 ANY REMAINING LAKE EFFECT IN THE MORNING. MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE             
 WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ALL ZONES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER            
 20S TO LOWER 30S.                                                              
 THURSDAY AND BEYOND...FOCUS WAS ON HEADLINE MANAGEMENT SO LITTLE               
 TIME LEFT. GENERALLY SPEAKING...LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH             
 THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION. THERE               
 WILL LIKELY BE A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND ALONG              
 IMPRESSIVE LOOKING BAROCLINIC ZONE. EXTENDED MODELS ARE STILL TRYING           
 TO SORT OUT THE DETAILS SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS             
 TIME.                                                                          
 SULLIVAN                                                                       
 &&                                                                             
 .APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING                  
        MIZ019-021-022-027-028 THROUGH TONIGHT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW                
        ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT MIZ008-020.                                    
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                          
 410 PM CST TUE JAN 9 2007                                                      
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 GUSTY NWLY WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE                 
 BUILDS IN FROM CNTRL KANSAS. AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT THIS                        
 EVENING...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY...REACHING LOWS AROUND THE            
 MIDNIGHT HOUR BEFORE RETURN FLOW AND WAA COMMENCES DURING THE EARLY            
 MORNING HOURS KEEPING TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TOWARDS SUNRISE.           
 AS LEE TROUGHING INTENSIFIES WEDNESDAY...STRONG SLY WINDS WILL                 
 DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND EFFECTIVELY MIX UP TO 900            
 MB TAPPING HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR TO CREATE GUSTY SFC WINDS. MOISTURE             
 WILL BE SLOW TO RETURN AS SFC RIDGING ENCOMPASSES THE GULF                     
 COAST...AND THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES...AND              
 ABNORMALLY WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED               
 FIRE DANGER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW RED            
 FLAG CRITERIA HOWEVER...AS RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO NEAR 30                 
 PERCENT AND 10 HOUR DEAD FUELS ARE CURRENTLY ONLY REPORTED NEAR 7-8            
 PERCENT.                                                                       
 LEAD WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SFC LEE TROUGHING OVER THE NRN PLAINS            
 WEDNESDAY WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE NRN FLOW INTO WRN CANADA BY                
 THURSDAY...HOWEVER MUCH STRONGER WAVE ENERGY IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO           
 THE SW CONUS REINVIGORATING SFC PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE SRN HIGH               
 PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING ALOFT            
 OVER ALASKA WILL DISLODGE A 1040+ MB HIGH PRESSURE AND A LARGE CHUNK           
 OF ARCTIC AIR...AND PROGRESS IT INTO THE NRN PLAINS BY THURSDAY                
 AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING ARCTIC FRONT POISED NORTH OF             
 THE FORECAST AREA...INCREASING WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT NEAR THE 295-300K           
 SFC WILL ACT TO ADVECT DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA...AND PROVIDE             
 THE INITIAL CHANCE OF RAIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GFS QPF FIELDS               
 LOOK FAR OVERDONE...HOWEVER THE NAM QPF FIELDS ARE QUESTIONABLY                
 ABSENT DURING THE 18Z-00Z TIME FRAME. NAM FORECAST MAY BE PICKING UP           
 ON THE INITIAL COLUMN SATURATION DILEMMA WHERE THE FIRST SEVERAL               
 HOURS OF SUPPOSED PRECIP MERELY ACT TO SATURATED THE ATMOSPHERE.               
 TRADITIONALLY...IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS OF SATURATION BEFORE                
 PRECIP STARTS REACHING THE GROUND...BUT THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE              
 VERY RAPIDLY. LEFT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY              
 FOR LIGHT RAIN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.                                      
 MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT               
 WINTERY PRECIPITATION BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT...AND LASTING INTO              
 THE WEEKEND. LATEST GFS AND NAM FORECASTS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER           
 AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE ARCTIC FRONT                  
 THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GFS HAS SLOWED ITS QUICK              
 PROGRESSION MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM...AND GIVEN THE HIGH VERTICAL            
 RESOLUTION OF THE NAM MODEL...SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE TOO FAR FROM            
 ITS SOLUTION. HOWEVER...AM A LITTLE SKEPTICAL OF THE NAM NEARLY                
 STALLING THE FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI SATURDAY GIVEN THE                 
 AIRMASS IN THE SOURCE REGION OF ALASKA CURRENTLY ADVERTISES                    
 TEMPERATURES IN THE -30F TO -40F RANGE. HISTORICALLY...THESE TYPES             
 OF AIRMASSES PLUNGE SOUTH FASTER THAN MODELS MAY SUGGEST...AND FAIL            
 TO STALL AS FAR NORTH AS MODELS MAY SUGGEST. REGARDLESS...TRUE                 
 WINTER TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE WAY TO THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER                 
 VALLEY.                                                                        
 STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECIP CHANCES AND                            
 INTENSITY...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SHALLOW COLD DOME FRIDAY AND                 
 SATURDAY. BULK OF THE MORE MODERATE RAIN MAY BE LIMITED TO THE WARM            
 SECTOR AS WINDS IN THE WARM ADVECTION WING AHEAD OF THE 850 MB                 
 FRONT ARE QUITE VEERED...AND MAY ACT TO LIMIT THE LIFT NORTH OF THE            
 COLD SFC BOUNDARY. GFS ALSO HINTS AT DEEPER POST FRONTAL SUBSIDENCE            
 FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING LIMITING FROZEN PRECIP                 
 DEVELOPMENT. COVERED THE AREA WITH CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN AND               
 SLEET...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WATCHES FOR THE TIME BEING UNTIL              
 MORE CERTAINTY CAN BE ACHIEVED WITH REGARDS TO THE SFC FRONT                   
 LOCATION AND PRECIP PRODUCING MECHANISMS.                                      
 BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BEGINS TO EJECT FROM THE DESERT SW              
 LATE SATURDAY...AND COULD LEAD TO A SECOND ROUND OF WINTER WEATHER.            
 ECMWF A LITTLE FASTER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THE UPPER                         
 WAVE...HOWEVER BOTH MODELS INDICATE A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR                      
 DEFORMATION BANDING NORTH AND WEST OF THE SFC LOW PRESSURE AND THE             
 ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY IMPRESSIVE             
 MIDLEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL             
 WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION. STILL A WAYS OUT TO GET TOO EXCITED ABOUT            
 SNOW AND/OR SLEET ACCUMULATIONS HERE...BUT SYNOPTIC PATTERN LOOKS              
 FAR MORE CONDUSIVE FOR A HIGH IMPACT EVENT THAN THE EARLIER THURSDAY           
 EVENT. LITTLE CHANGE MADE PAST THE WEEKEND EXPECT TO PUSH                      
 TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN OVER A MONTH.                 
 21                                                                             
 &&                                                                             
 /425 AM CST TUE JAN 9 2007/                                                    
 SHORT TERM CONCERNS DEAL WITH GUSTY WINDS THIS MORNING. LOOKING                
 UPSTREAM ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA THERE ARE SEVERAL OBSERVATIONAL               
 SITES WITH GUSTS WELL IN EXCESS OF 30KTS AND EVEN A COUPLE ISOLATED            
 SPOTS OVER 40KTS.  PROFILERS AND VWPS IN THIS REGION SHOW 500 METER            
 WINDS AROUND 40KTS...WITH RUC 1000-850MB LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8            
 DEG C/KM ALLOWING FOR EFFICIENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE.              
 THE INHERITED WIND ADVISORY FOR FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI WAS TO EXPIRE           
 AT 5 AM.  HOWEVER...DECIDED TO EXTEND IT UNTIL 8 AM AS HIGHER                  
 1000-850MB LAPSE RATES WILL OVERSPREAD THE ADVISORY AREA BETWEEN 12Z           
 AND 15Z.  DID CONSIDER EXPANDING THE ADVISORY FURTHER TO THE SOUTH             
 AND EAST...BUT THE BETTER LAPSE RATES FALL OFF QUICKLY BY 15Z. WILL            
 CONTINUE TO MONITOR TO DETERMINE IF ANY FURTHER ADJUSTMENT ARE                 
 NEEDED.  OTHER SHORT TERM CONCERN DEALS WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES             
 THIS MORNING.  DID GO AHEAD AND INSERT SOME SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES              
 ACROSS FAR NORTH/NORTHEAST AREAS IN THE WX GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE            
 ACTIVITY MOVING OUT OF IOWA.  HOWEVER I KEPT POPS AT OR BELOW 14               
 PERCENT AS MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS NOT LIKELY.                             
 LOOKS LIKE THE AREA WILL BE ON THE TEMPERATURE "ROLLER COASTER" THE            
 NEXT FEW DAYS.  WHILE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY OVER                 
 SOUTHERN MISSOURI...THE COLDER AIR IS JUST NOW BEGINNING TO FILTER             
 SOUTHWARD WITH THE COLDEST PUSH OF AIR EXPECTED TO BE OVER NORTHEAST           
 MISSOURI.  THIS WILL RESULT IS MUCH COOLER HIGHS COMPARED TO                   
 YESTERDAY...GRIDDED HIGHS WILL HAVE LOWER 40S SOUTHWEST TO UPPER 30S           
 ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST MISSOURI COUNTIES.  AS OUR NEXT UPPER LEVEL               
 STORM SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE WESTERN U.S. ON WEDNESDAY...THE FLOW               
 ALOFT WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL               
 INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY. WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE                    
 EXPECTED...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY WITH MUCH OF THE AREA            
 CLAIMING INTO THE 50S DURING THE AFTERNOON.  WHILE MOISTURE WILL               
 GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY...THERE COULD STILL BE HEIGHTENED            
 FIRE DANGER ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS AND WEST-CENTRAL                    
 MISSOURI.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH WINDS AND RH VALUES CLOSELY DURING               
 SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS...BUT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW RED FLAG             
 CRITERIA.                                                                      
 ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT.  MODELS STILL            
 AREN`T IN TOTAL AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF THE COLDER             
 AIR.  THE NAM IS THE SLOWEST WITH THE GFS BEING QUICKER.  I TRENDED            
 TOWARD THE FASTER GFS AS ITS SOLUTION WAS SIMILAR TO THE 21Z SREF              
 MEAN SOLUTION.  ON THURSDAY...ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES NICELY AHEAD           
 OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...AND I DID GO AHEAD AND RAISE POPS A BIT.            
 INITIALLY IT LOOKS LIKE SOME DRIER AIR WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME SO             
 KEPT POPS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 PERCENT.  THE FRONT WILL STAY NORTHWEST            
 OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY SO PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL               
 RAIN.                                                                          
 FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY PERIOD I ONLY MADE A FEW TWEAKS           
 AS THERE IS STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING POSSIBLE            
 WINTER WEATHER.  BY THURSDAY NIGHT...DEEPER MOISTURE MAKES IT INTO             
 THE AREA AND WITH GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT IN PLACE I RAISED POPS INTO             
 THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY.  I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF THESE NEED TO            
 BE RAISED A BIT MORE AS THE SREF OUTPUT INDICATES LIKELY POPS MAY BE           
 NEEDED.  STILL LOOKS LIKE THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA              
 WILL SEE SOME ICY PRECIPITATION AS THE ARCTIC FRONT UNDERCUTS THE              
 WARMER AIR ALOFT.  MAIN CHANGE TO THE WX GRIDS WAS TO ADD SOME SLEET           
 MIXED WITH FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN LOCATIONS AS SOME ICE                 
 CRYSTAL PRODUCTION MAY BE PRESENT.  ALSO STILL LOOKING LIKE THE COLD           
 AIR WILL SLOWLY OOZE SOUTHEASTWARD...THIS WILL ANY PRECIP WHICH                
 FALLS AS RAIN ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES UNTIL SOMETIME                 
 FRIDAY NIGHT. STILL UNCERTAIN AS TO AMOUNTS OF ICE ACCUMULATION AS             
 THE SREF WANTS TO KEEP THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ALONG AND JUST                
 AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WHICH WOULD KEEP THE           
 GREATER QPF ACROSS AREAS WHICH WILL STAY MAINLY RAIN.                          
 WILL STILL NEED TO WATCH AS THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE              
 NORTHERN PLAINS BY 12Z SUNDAY.  THE BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW           
 WOULD LIKELY BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70...BUT ITS STILL TOO FAR OUT             
 TO PINPOINT ACCUMULATIONS.                                                     
 SAW                                                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 MO...NONE.                                                                     
 KS...NONE.                                                                     
 $$                                                                             
</pre> mo