FXUS04 KWBC 020627
QPFPFD
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
226 AM EDT SUN MAY 02 2004
PRELIM DAY 1 AND DAY 2 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 03/1200 UTC THRU MAY 04/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
ERN U.S...
WAVY FRONTAL BNDRY AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL TROF OVER THE
GT LAKES AND MID MS VALLEY WILL BE THE MAJOR FOCUS FOR PCPN ON DAY
1.   MODELS HAVE SHOWN REMARKABLE CONTINUITY AT 5H WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPR TROF THRU THE GT LAKES AS WELL AS STG VORT
AND
ASSOCD JET STREAK FCST TO DRIVE SEWD ACRS MO...BUT SEEM TO BE
MISSING
SOME OF THE SMALL SCALE DETAILS.    ONE SFC WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT
NEWD EARLY DAY 1 ACRS WRN NY WITH A BAND OF MDT RAINS ASSOCD WITH
PD OF WARM ADV AND FAVORABLE RT ENTRANCE JET SUPPORT.  SECONDARY
VORT DROPPING THRU THE MID MS VALLEY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY GOOD
COLD POOL WHICH SHOULD HELP TO DESTABILIZE ATMOS UNDERNEATH IT IN
THE AFTN FOR RISK OF SHWRS AND PSBL TSTMS.  WHILE MSTR WILL BE
LIMITED..STG INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL FORCING COULD SQUEEZE OUT
SOME SPOTTY .50 INCH AMOUNTS WITH ETA AND GFS IN AGREEMENT.
MEANWHILE FARTHER EAST..CONTINUED BACKING UPR FLOW AND FAVORABLE
RT ENTRANCE JET DYNAMICS OF 130 KT UPR JET SHOULD RESULT IN
INCREASING CNVTN ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT PUSHING ACRS
THE ERN TN VALLEY AND SE STATES AND TOWARD THE MID ATLC.
TIMINGWISE..MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO SLOW WITH SQLN ACTIVITY PUSHING
ACRS THE GULF COAST REGION AND GIVEN RECENT RADAR TRENDS BLV THE
ETA IS BETTER AT HANDLING THE FASTER MOVEMENT THOUGH LIKELY
UNDERDONE WITH AMOUNTS.   WITH PWS IN THE 1.5 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE
FEEDING IN AHEAD OF THE APCHG FNT AND PREFRONTAL SQLN POTNL WILL
EXIST FOR BROAD AREA OF 1 TO 1.5 INCH PLUS RAINS FROM ERN SECTIONS
OF
THE FL PANHANDLE NEWD INTO THE MID ATLC REGION.
DAY 2...
...ERN CONUS...
CDFNT ALG THE ERN SEABOARD ERLY IN THE PD WILL MOV OFFSHORE BY
60 HRS.  IT WILL LINGER ACRS NEW ENG AND FL.  A SECONDARY SFC LOW
IS FCST TO FORM IN SRN NEW ENG AND MOV NEWD IN SRN CAN.  H5 TROF
OVER THE OH AND TN VLYS WILL MOV NEWD AND BE CENTERED OVER
NEW ENG BY THE END OF DAY 2.  STRONG S/WV IN THE LWR MS VLY IS
PROGGED TO MOV TO THE MID-ATLC AND NEW ENG.  AS TROF MOVS NEWD
HGTS RISE ACRS THE SERN CONUS AND MID-ATLC.  ETA IS A BIT SLOWER
THAN THE GFS THIS CYCLE.  UKMET IS THE FASTEST SOLN...AS IT HAS
BEEN FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS.  CAN SOLN IS SOMEWHERE IN THE
MIDDLE.
THERE IS SOME STRONG UVV ACRS THE CSTL CAROLINAS AND NEW ENG
DURG THE PD AND DECENT UPR DYNAMICS...WITH 130 KT JET E OF THE
ADVANCING TROF...OVER THE MID ATLC AND NEW ENG.  STRONG SLY H8
FLOW ERLY ON...AOA 50 KTS...WILL KEEP ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE
EXTREME CSTL SECTIONS OF THE ERN CONUS.  PW VALUES ARE AOA 1.50
INCHES IN THESE AREAS AND THERE IS A TIGHT GRADIENT TO THE W.  PW
VALUES DROP TO 0.50 INCHES OR LESS NOT TOO FAR TO THE W.
MDL QPF VALUES ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND ANY DIFFS CAN
BE RESOLVED THRU A MDL BLEND.
ELSEWHERE...GENLY LIGHT QPF ACRS THE GRTLKS AREA AND NRN PLAINS
AS A WK CDFNT EXTENDS SWD FROM A LOW IN CNTRL CAN.  GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH S/WV ENERGY DROPPING SEWD FROM CAN AS
WELL...AND MAY BE HAVING SOME FEEDBACK PROBS.  MOISTURE IS
LIMITED WITH PW VALUES AOB 0.75 INCHES.
IN THE PAC NW...LARGE LOW APPROACHING WRN CAN/PAC NW.  THERE
ARE MINOR S/WV DETAIL DIFFS.  UPR JET DYNAMICS INCREASE DURG THE
PD WITH 90 KT WIND MAX MOVG INTO WA.  SWLY ONSHORE FLOW
INCREASES...BUT IS NOT ALL THAT STRONG DURG THE PD AND PW
INCREASES TO 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH.  AGAIN...ANY QPF DIFFS BETWEEN THE
MDLS COULD BE RESOLVED USING A BLEND...AMTS ARE GENLY LIGHT.
SULLIVAN/NIERENBERG
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
24HR QP VT 03/12Z
 0.01 528701 525688 521678 517668 514663 508653 506650 503649
      502648 499651 495656 491658 485659 471662 463665 455668
      441674 429682 417692 399713 391717 382721 372727 365735
      359739 353745 348751 346757 342763 332769 311785 305790
      300792 296794 290795 282796 271793 266792 258793 251797
      249799 249801 251808 254812 261822 259828 259832 263848
      261860 260867 257873 250886 246897 246910 248917 252921
      261923 265922 271918 280907 296886 301882 304880 316877
      340876 344878 344881 345890 343898 340903 336910 335917
      338924 337929 337934 340938 343941 347944 353946 358948
      363949 370949 377948 393946 407942 414940 422942 426946
      432948 436950 440950 443948 445945 448938 447931 444925
      440920 432912 413889 390877 384874 380870 378864 382861
      409851 417848 424847 432847 436849 433858 435863 437865
      445865 453861 458855 460848 461841 464835 480812 492798
      503786 515770 519763 522759 524754 526750 528744 531731
      530714 528701
 0.01 540207 540197 538188 535182 532175 529169 525163 513157
      509151 507149 503148 500155 496159 494163 494168 495177
      497185 501191 503197 506207 507213 508216 511220 522228
      528231 531230 534225 536220 539210 540207
 0.01 539082 538075 535068 529053 526043 524037 525031 525024
      522013 515002 509993 499982 496978 493977 486975 481975
      472979 470982 468985 468991 468996 471004 478012 485020
      489026 491032 495046 500059 506068 510071 513072 517073
      523074 529077 538083 539082
 0.01 521270 522263 522257 522250 519245 513228 506212 501208
      497205 492204 486207 483210 481213 484219 484225 483227
      476229 468230 466232 466237 471245 482254 484259 485262
      487274 490279 494286 498290 501292 508292 513289 516282
 0.25 521701 519692 517685 515678 511673 508670 504668 501669
      497673 482691 470702 464707 458710 441718 424724 419726
      413726 406730 397739 392742 386743 379746 370751 355761
      319789 304799 299801 294802 286805 275805 272805 267807
      272825 272834 276844 275853 273861 270870 268878 266888
      267894 270896 273894 276892 282887 291877 296873 299871
      309865 327856 335853 344853 352851 356850 359848 371832
      385816 391810 397804 405801 410797 420789 424787 421791
      414799 406806 403815 402820 405823 413824 420823 432820
      439817 444813 448809 452805 458802 463798 467794 473788
      488775 508755 515746 518741 521734 522726 522717 521701
 0.25 514276 518269 518264 517258 513248 509237 504228 502223
      496220 494225 495231 499241 501247 501251 500256 497255
      492258 492263 494270 499279 503284 506285 509284 514276
 0.25 413917 413913 412910 411909 408907 408906 406908 406911
      409914 409915 412917 412918 413917
 0.25 378897 378889 374883 372880 368877 365875 360874 358877
      357885 356889 357896 356899 356906 359911 364911 370908
      373906 376901 378897
 0.50 516695 514687 511681 506676 502679 498682 490690 473708
      463717 453723 445726 437730 428735 420740 414745 408746
      399748 382750 367757 358762 353765 337778 329785 320791
      314795 306800 297804 289807 279808 272809 272814 277820
      279830 278834 280838 282843 283848 282855 279863 279870
      282874 286874 291872 297867 312858 326851 346847 355842
      360835 368821 373816 380809 394796 402790 407785 409782
      408778 404777 405772 408770 411771 415770 418772 428770
      437764 443761 447761 449770 450773 449779 448782 445787
      439793 432798 426801 422805 422809 427810 434807 442802
      459789 470778 489760 498751 505743 511734 514728 516723
      517715 517709 516695
 0.50 516267 516262 512256 510250 509250 508254 507259 505268
      503270 500270 497269 500270 503272 504276 505278 507278
      509274 513271 516267
 0.50 458735 457735 454735 451737 449740 448742 450742 453742
      456741 458737 458735
 0.50 371891 371888 368885 366886 363889 363890 364893 364897
      365898 368897 369896 370894 371891
 1.00 512694 510690 506687 501691 496696 489704 483715 477726
      473735 471740 471749 471750 475751 478750 486746 494738
      502728 509717 513706 513699 512694
 1.00 385767 378767 370768 369764 361768 348775 333786 320795
      312801 304805 296809 288811 281813 281817 289826 293830
      293836 291843 290849 290854 291858 293862 297860 303854
      310850 322846 329843 330840 325841 318843 317840 320835
      330826 342814 345810 345806 350803 365790 374780 385767
 1.50 344799 351793 357787 357784 346790 337792 331794 322806
      305816 301821 305822 312824 312832 316827 321823 330815
      336811 339805 341801 344799
24HR QP VT 04/12Z
 0.01 518693 513677 507659 500641 493628 487625 478625 475627
      469632 458635 451635 445636 441638 436640 433642 422651
      414658 403666 402671 402677 403689 402693 400695 394697
      385697 368697 358696 355697 349701 339707 333713 324721
      319728 312736 303743 295743 285749 280755 277760 274764
      272767 268770 266780 258785 255794 250802 247809 245817
      248828 253835 254842 254846 254855 254861 257867 262871
      266873 270872 278869 286866 308836 315831 320824 324815
      328812 331809 334809 345805 355805 365802 369799 372796
      375792 380789 386786 391781 394779 398776 408770 418764
      427755 432752 436751 440752 444754 448754 452751 456750
      460752 469757 479763 494773 502777 506776 510772 513762
      515748 515743 516736 517727 519720 520705 518696 518693
 0.01 546941 546921 542906 538898 535894 531894 528895 526897
      514902 512904 509899 509885 507877 504876 497871 486875
      480877 474877 465875 462876 457874 451866 447861 443858
      440857 434858 429861 424865 416872 416876 418884 421895
      425902 420907 419912 420919 423923 429929 436935 439938
      442942 443946 451965 462984 469988 479990 483994 486997
      489996 491997 494994 498991 501990 506991 511993 518997
      527995 538989 541983 543978 545959 546941
 0.01 520269 522262 519255 516246 513234 510226 504216 499209
      494201 492196 493189 495178 495171 494167 489160 479156
      472151 468144 465144 464151 465155 467158 470162 471169
      472175 474179 480185 484196 481202 478204 474206 471206
      466206 462207 454210 447214 442219 438222 435225 430232
      425241 427246 432246 437247 441247 448242 452251 458258
      462261 467263 477266 484267 494271 499274 501276 506285
      520269
 0.01 498154 497149 497147 497145 496140 495137 494135 492134
      489132 486131 484131 481130 478132 477133 477134 478137
      480141 480142 483146 484147 485149 488151 491152 492153
      494154 497156 498154
 0.01 457835 449830 442827 439822 440817 445806 445802 443798
      440795 435797 429800 428805 427811 423821 422825 424833
      431842 436848 442849 447847 452843 454838 457835
 0.01 474111 474102 473098 470091 467089 462087 456087 450089
      447090 444093 443096 443101 446105 450107 455108 461109
      464110 467115 470118 472115 474111
 0.01 436040 438032 437024 435016 434012 431007 428005 422004
      419007 417013 415018 415026 415033 417041 421044 424045
      430045 432044 436040
 0.01 376871 375864 372861 362858 355857 347855 343854 338855
      336858 334864 336870 341880 346890 350894 353895 359895
      362896 367896 373893 377890 376882 375875 376871
 0.25 498664 496661 492659 486656 479656 472657 456661 444665
      435670 431673 427678 424682 424686 423695 416700 407705
      399708 391711 376714 370715 361719 344729 330736 322740
      313745 305750 298754 292757 286763 281767 275774 268786
      263797 258805 258811 265825 268834 269839 268843 264848
      264852 264857 265859 269862 271861 275861 279859 284854
      289849 293842 296836 300832 309821 314818 317815 323811
      327805 333800 350791 367782 384772 411750 427741 442737
      459730 473729 477728 481725 487719 490714 492710 495702
      499693 501682 501676 499669 498664
 0.25 513271 515267 516262 513256 510250 507247 501245 498250
      494252 492257 496261 498265 503269 506273 509274 513271
 0.25 480239 479235 478234 476232 473231 470231 470232 471236
      472238 475239 478240 480239
 0.50 498679 494668 490666 487666 481667 473670 464674 457674
      447672 440673 432680 429687 431697 428703 420709 413715
      406721 400728 392735 386739 380740 374741 367740 366739
      361739 352744 346746 338747 330750 323752 317751 310752
      303755 294760 283772 278776 274782 271787 269795 267802
      269805 267810 267814 269818 272827 273836 272845 270850
      269856 271857 275856 282852 287847 291842 294836 299824
      305819 312815 318811 322809 326803 331798 344789 359781
      375772 383767 391761 404749 417740 422737 432734 446727
      476718 479715 482711 489701 496688 498679
 0.50 509264 508260 505260 504262 504263 507265 509264
 1.00 488683 486679 484677 476679 471682 463684 457684 451679
      448680 444682 440689 443695 442701 438706 435709 427715
      421720 422724 427724 441718 447716 456713 469705 477700
      485693 488683
 1.00 411731 410731 407732 405734 403736 401737 403737 406736
      409735 411733 411731
 1.00 370759 367759 364759 358761 353764 348767 346770 342775
      339777 336781 339784 344782 349779 354777 360775 365772
      368768 370764 370759
 1.00 284788 283787 280788 279790 281792 284790 284788
 1.00 290825 290822 288820 285821 283824 282825 281826 279830
      279833 278836 281839 282839 284838 284837 286835 288833
      288831 290829 290827 290825
 1.50 478686 475684 474685 474690 476688 478686
$$