AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
242 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TONIGHT-FRIDAY)                                                                
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING               
GENERALLY WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION AS BROAD UPPER             
RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES FLATTENS OVERHEAD AS A WEAKENING SHORT                 
WAVE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. REGIONAL               
RADAR AND SATELLITE INDICATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND                
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MTS WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND             
CENTRAL MTS ATTM. AT SFC...LEE TROUGH DEEPENING ACROSS THE I-25                 
CORRIDOR WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH ACROSS THE FAR                  
EASTERN PLAINS ATTM.                                                            
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WEAK SHORT WAVE TO CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE ACROSS            
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT WITH UPPER RIDGING REBUILDING ACROSS               
THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON              
AS THE NEXT EASTERN PAC SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS THE             
WEST COAST. INCREASED AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND MINOR DISTURBANCE                  
EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW TO HELP KEEP CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS            
THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING                 
THROUGH THE MIDNIGHT WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS.                 
THE WEAK WESTERLY FLOW TO HELP PUSH A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE                     
IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS...THOUGH WITH CONTINUED DRY LOW LEVELS AND            
INVERTED V PROFILES...WOULD EXPECT ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES AND GUSTY               
WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR WITH DRY                 
CONDITIONS CONTINUING ACROSS THE REST OF THE PLAINS. PASSING WAVE               
KICKS LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR             
A WEAK NORTHERLY SURGE OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE                   
EASTERLY INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ALONG WITH SLIGHT COOLING                    
ALOFT...SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW.              
ENOUGH MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE PRESENT UNDER THE RIDGE FOR                     
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR MAINLY ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER              
TERRAIN ONCE AGAIN. -MW                                                         
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
...NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE...                                                       
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PAINT A RATHER WARM AND DRY                    
PICTURE OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TWO TROUGHS ARE              
FCST TO AFFECT THE REGION. THE FIRST WILL BE THIS WEEKEND (SAT                  
NITE/EARLY SUN) AND THE 2ND WILL BE TUESDAY. ATTM...BOTH THESE                  
TROUGHS APPEAR TO BE PROGRESSIVE AND MAINLY TO THE N OF THE                     
REGION...WITH THE 2ND ONE A BIT STRONGER THAN THE 1ST. THE 1ST                  
TROUGH WILL HAVE MINIMAL AFFECT ON TEMPERATURES WHILE THE 2ND ONE               
IS FCST TO KNOCK TEMPS DOWN ABOUT 10 DEGREES. AS FOR PRECIP...I                 
BELIEVE THE ONLY PRECIP WILL FALL ACROSS THE CONTDVD WITH BOTH OF               
THESE SYSTEMS. THE PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED TO AMOUNT TO MUCH.                    
OTHERWISE...EXPECT CONTINUED WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE                 
REGION WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE HIGH                     
COUNTRY. IF WE DO NOT GET ANY SIGNFICANT PRECIP SOON...THEN WE                  
MAY HAVE TO START WORRYING ABOUT FIRE WX CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN.                   
/HODANISH                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24            
HOURS. MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH            
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND IMMEDIATE             
ADJACENT PLAINS...THOUGH DOES NOT LOOK TO AFFECT AREAS ALONG AND                
EAST OF I-25 ATTM. -MW                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
23/34                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
151 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY. THIS                 
WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND BRING                   
DRIER AIR TO THE AREA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL CONTINUE                    
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH NICE AUTUMN LIKE WEATHER.                              
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...                                         
UPDATE...LOW CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. LATEST RUC                   
MODEL SUGGEST THESE CLOUDS MAY CONTINUE LONGER OVERNIGHT THAN                   
PREVIOUS GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH WITH SHORT WAVE MOVING                             
THROUGH...CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN. TEMPERATURE FORECAST                  
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY UPWARD DUE TO LINGERING CLOUDS.                               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...                         
BOTH NAM AND GFS SHOW UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST THURSDAY                
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. MID LEVEL HIGH MOVES EAST BUT REMAINS NORTH OF              
AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP HIGH PRESSURE              
OVER THE AREA FOR THE PERIOD AND ALSO KEEP THE OLD FRONTAL                      
BOUNDARY WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. IT LOOKS LIKE AN               
EARLY TOUCH OF AUTUMN IN THE AIR WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND                
LOW TEMPERATURES 55-60.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                      
GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING EXTENDED. AGREE WITH                 
BOTH MODELS SHOWING NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURES OVER THE AREA.              
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OUT WEST SATURDAY WEAKENS AND FILLS BY SUNDAY.              
THEN AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST OVER AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND                 
CONTINUES WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE EAST COAST SURFACE HIGH               
REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER WITH NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS.                 
MODELS DO FLATTEN THIS HIGH OUT A BIT BY SUNDAY ALLOWING A MORE                 
EASTERLY WIND FLOW AND ALSO ALLOWING THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO               
APPROACH THE COAST AGAIN BUT MAINLY THE SOUTHERN COAST. SO FOR THE              
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA DECIDED TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF                
SHOWERS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SINCE THERE ARE NO OTHER WEATHER               
FEATURES THAT WILL PUSH THE FRONT AWAY. STILL PLEASANT                          
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS IN THE              
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                      
A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE MIDLANDS AT THIS TIME WILL                    
RESULT IN SUBSIDENCE LATER THIS MORNING. WSR-88D VWP ANALYSIS                   
SHOWS PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH ABOUT 2KM...WHICH WILL              
CONTINUE TO USHER IN DRIER AIR OVER THE MIDLANDS. SATELLITE                     
IMAGERY SHOWING SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH LOWER VFR CEILINGS                
IN THE AGS/DNL AREA. EXPECT CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE TOWARDS                
DAWN BEFORE BEING REPLACED BY FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON.              
WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY                
LATE MORNING AND DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET WITH HIGH PRESSURE                      
REMAINING IN CONTROL AT THE SURFACE.                                            
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN LOW                
LYING AREAS FRIDAY MORNING.  OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO                
AVIATION EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.                                        
&&                                                                              
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SC...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...HC                                                                   
</pre> ga                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
123 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISSUED 1052 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008                                              
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER IL THIS MORNING. PLENTY OF SUN PULLING                 
TEMPS UP INTO THE LOWER 70S EARLY. FORECAST FOR SUNNY SKIES MAY                 
ACTUALLY HAVE A LITTLE BIT OF A PROBLEM AS THE LLVL MOISTURE                    
PROFILE HAS CHANGED SINCE THE OVERNIGHT MODEL RUNS. THIS                        
MORNING...NAM/GFS/NGM/RUC CU RULES ALL HAVE SIGNIFICANT CU THIS                 
AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED MAINLY FOR WRN HALF OF CWA...WEST OF RIDGE              
AXIS...BUT ONLY IN MODERATION FOR NOW. BOOSTED TEMPS ONLY                       
SLIGHTLY AS 850MB TEMPS THIS MORNING UP A DEGREE FROM YESTERDAYS                
SOUNDING AT 12Z...JUST A TOUCH OVER YESTERDAYS. ALL FORECAST                    
CHANGES ARE SO SUBTLE THAT NO ZONE UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS              
TIME.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISSUED 118 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008                                               
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE MAIN STORY...BUT SLIDING OFF TO THE                   
EAST. FEW CU FOR THE AFTERNOON...THEN SCT CIRRUS AT MOST IN THE                 
OVERNIGHT. VFR CIGS AND E/SERLY FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE                       
OVERNIGHT. PRE DAWN VISBY DROPS SHOULD REMAIN IN MVFR                           
CATEGORY...AND ONLY BRIEFLY BEFORE THE SUNRISE. WINDS MORE                      
SOUTHERLY TOMORROW MORNING AND MINIMAL...IF ANY...CLOUDS.                       
HJS                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
ISSUED 139 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008                                               
DRY AND PLEASANT LATE SUMMER WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE                
FORECAST PERIOD.                                                                
06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LAKE                     
SUPERIOR...WITH WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHWARD                  
INTO NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS. ALOFT...MAIN STORM TRACK REMAINS WELL TO           
THE NORTH ACROSS CANADA...WHILE VERY WEAK FLOW DOMINATES ACROSS                 
MUCH OF THE CONUS.                                                              
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY                                             
WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWARD TODAY...EVENTUALLY                   
STALLING AND WASHING OUT ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. BOUNDARY WILL BE              
COMPLETELY MOISTURE-STARVED...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF               
CLOUD COVER WITH IT. CU-RULE INDICATES FEW-SCT CU ALONG AND AHEAD               
OF THE FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS IOWA INTO THE NORTHWEST KILX CWA.                  
BOTTOM LINE WILL BE SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE BOARD...WITH LIGHT E/NE              
WINDS. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CAA BEHIND FRONT...SO HIGH TEMPS               
WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO                    
COOLER...WITH READINGS REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.             
WEAK UPPER LOW CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL SLOWLY                
TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY AND               
SATURDAY. BOTH THE NAM-WRF AND GFS ARE TRYING TO GENERATE SOME                  
PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS PARTS OF MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN                   
ILLINOIS...HOWEVER WITH DRY ATMOSPHERE FIRMLY IN PLACE...THINK                  
THIS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE. MEANWHILE...A WAVE TRACKING ACROSS                  
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT                 
LAKES. CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THESE TWO                           
SYSTEMS...WITH THE END RESULT BEING A CONTINUATION OF MOSTLY SUNNY              
AND WARM CONDITIONS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 80 DEGREES FOR                  
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.                                                       
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY                                            
ONCE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES AWAY...RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD               
IN EARNEST ACROSS THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. RIDGE WILL BE                    
FURTHER AMPLIFIED AS A RESULT OF NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGGING                 
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP CENTRAL                      
ILLINOIS DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AND LIKELY               
ALL THE WAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE THEREFORE MADE VERY FEW                  
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.                                           
BARNES                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
858 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
LITTLE CHANGES FOR EVENING UPDATE.  01Z SFC ANLYS PLACES FRONT                  
ACROSS SERN SD INTO CENTRAL MN WITH SOME WEAK THETA-E POOLING ALONG             
BOUNDARY.  THIS IS PRODUCING 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPES BUT WITH CINH               
INCREASING SO SFC BASED POTENTIAL NIL.  CONVECTION SEEMS TO BE                  
WANING AND 21Z RUC DOES NOT SHOW MUCH POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT.              
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...CIN LOOKS SUFFICIENT              
TO SUPPRESS ANYTHING NEW.  300/305K ISENT LEVELS SHOW HIGH PRES                 
DEFICITS AND ONLY PATCHY CONVERGENCE.  CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO            
REMOVE CURRENT SLIGHT WORDING...BUT WOULD NOT ADD IT IN IF IT WAS               
NOT ALREADY THERE.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
SFC MAP THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW                   
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PLAINS. SFC HIGH ANCHORED OVER            
THE GREAT LAKES WITH PERSISTENT RIDGING ALOFT. H850 SHOWS THIN                  
RIBBON OF MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS NEBRASKA TO THE DAKOTAS WITH                   
MOISTURE POOL EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. WINDS ALOFT                
HAVE INCREASED WITH NICE SSW RETURN FLOW OVER IA TODAY...30 TO 35               
KTS. TROF/WEAK BOUNDARY WEST EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST WITH TIME                    
AS LOW TRACKS OVER NORTHERN MN AND THE TRAILING BOUNDARY SHEARS AND             
WEAKENS NEAR THE IA/MN BORDER BY LATE SAT/EARLY SUN. WITH MINOR                 
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND INCREASING MOISTURE RETURN...SOME            
HINT AT POSSIBLE ISO THUNDER FAR NORTH LATE SAT AFTERNOON. MODELS               
SHOWING LOW-MOD CAPE VALUES AT 600 J/KG. OTHER SLIGHT COMPLICATION              
IN THE WEEKEND FORECAST IS THE H500 WAVE TRACKING EAST AND THEN                 
NORTH INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY. ASSOCIATED                   
VORTICITY FIELD WEAKENS BY SAT BUT MAY BE ENOUGH LEFT OVER SAT                  
AFTERNOON TO SPARK A FEW ISO/SCT STORMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST DURING               
THE DAYTIME HOURS. IN FACT...DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY STRONG DYNAMICS             
UNTIL MONDAY...WE CONTINUE TO SEE MAINLY LATE SUMMER DIURNAL THERMAL            
FORCING ENHANCING CLOUDS AND PSBL THUNDER.  QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO              
THE TIMING OF SYSTEM THE EARLY TO MID WEEK SYSTEM WITH THE EXPANSIVE            
RIDGE CURRENTLY IN PLACE TO OUR EAST. GEM/00Z EURO/UKMET SHOW                   
GENERALLY SLOWER EAST MOVEMENT IN NEXT TUES SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS                
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN PLAINS...ALSO DRIVING THE WAVE MORE NORTH            
THAN EAST. GFS TRENDING TOWARD ITS FASTER EASTERLY BIAS...PROMOTING             
SHOWER/ THUNDER DEVELOPMENT MUCH FASTER OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUES.            
HAVE DECIDED TO LEAN TOWARD THE SLOWER FAMILY OF SOLNS FOR NOW...BUT            
EXTENDED CHANCE POPS A BIT FARTHER EAST 12Z-18Z MONDAY WITH ACTIVITY            
WANING INTO THE PM HOURS AS MIXING TAKES OVER. WITH GREATER                     
CONFIDENCE IN THE SLOWER SOLNS FOR TUES/WED OF NEXT WEEK HAVE LEFT              
LOWER POPS OVER THE AREA TUES...INCREASING POPS TUES NIGHT NORTHWEST            
AND OVERSPREADING AREA WED...AS PER PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND REST OF                
EXTENDED THROUGH THURSDAY...LOOKING MORE LIKE THE FRONT WILL STALL              
AND THEN WEAKEN WITH TIME WITH CHANCES SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE                  
THROUGH THURSDAY AND HINT AT DRYING BY FRIDAY. NEWEST 12Z EURO SHOWS            
FRONT HAVING THE SAME CHALLENGES MOVING EAST WITH SOME WASHOUT OF               
THE FRONT TOWARD LATE NEXT WEEK. CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER THE             
NEXT SEVEN DAYS LOOK LIMITED GIVEN THE MODEST LEVELS OF CONCURRENT              
WIND FIELDS AND INSTABILITY.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...20/00Z                                                              
SEVERAL CONCERNS FOR TAFS BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT.  HAVE REMOVED ANY            
MENTION OF PRECIP OR CONVECTION AT KMCW OVERNIGHT AS POTENTIAL                  
CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AND WHAT THERE IS REMAINS NORTH.  RELATIVELY              
HIGH MOISTURE VALUES MAY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY MVFR RADITATION FOG              
EARLY THIS MORNING AT SOME SITES AS CROSSOVER TEMPS ARE APPROACHED.             
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL TO GO IFR...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION.  HAVE            
ALSO ADDED CB WORDING TO KOTM SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  FEEL THERE WILL              
BE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SERN IA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN            
ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION NOT THERE TO ADD TO TERMINAL AS OF YET.                 
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KAJ/REV/BSS                                                                     
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
800 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
A THIN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA HAVE DVLPD ALG COLD FNT OVER THE MN                    
ARROWHEAD...SO ADDED LO CHC POPS TO THE WRN CWA THRU 06Z...WHEN THIS            
FNT IS EXPECTED TO PASS. ALTHOUGH LOSS OF SFC HTG MAY CAUSE THIS                
CNVCTN TO WEAKEN...STEEP LAPSE RATES UP TO 7.5C/KM IN THE H7-5 LYR              
SHOULD ALLOW THE SHRA TO LINGER IN THE PRESENCE OF SOME H85-5                   
QVECTOR CNVGC AND LLVL CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FNT.                      
&&                                                                              
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
19Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING               
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND TROUGHING DROPPING DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL               
CANADA. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...A SHRTWV STRETCHES FROM NE ONTARIO SW            
TO NW WI...WHICH IS COMBINING WITH MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND                  
7-7.5C/KM LAPSE RATES IN PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND                         
THUNDERSTORMS ON LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE KEWEENAW. AHEAD OF THE                  
TROUGH...WARM AIR HAS MOVED INTO UPPER MI FROM THE PLAINS...WITH A              
15Z SOUNDING FROM SAW SHOWING 850MB TEMPS OF 16C. TEMPERATURES HAVE             
NOT MIXED UP TO THIS LEVEL...DESPITE A BREEZY SOUTHWEST WIND...DUE              
TO THE LOWER SUN ANGLE AROUND THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX. NEVERTHELESS...             
READINGS HAVE CLIMBED ABOVE NORMAL WITH DOWNSLOPE AREAS AROUND                  
80...WHILE LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE COOLER LAKE MI WATERS ARE IN               
THE MID 60S. TO THE NW...COOLER AIR CAN BE SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH            
MANITOBA...BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING INTO            
THE 40S OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA...COMPARED TO 70 DEGREE READINGS AHEAD            
OF THE FRONT. 850MB TEMPS WERE 1C AT CYQD AT -4C AT CHURCHILL                   
MB...INDICATIVE ALSO OF THE COLD AIR. SOME CELLULAR LOW CLOUDS ARE              
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD AIR...BUT VERY FEW REPORTS OF ANY PCPN.                
FARTHER TO THE NW...HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER FAR NORTHERN                  
SASKATCHEWAN.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...                                           
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL DIG A BIT MORE TOWARDS              
UPPER MI DURING THE NEXT 18 HOURS...BUT THEN START MOVING EASTWARD              
DUE TO UPPER TROUGH JUST OFF THE WEST COAST TRYING TO PUSH EAST. THE            
DIGGING WILL BE ENOUGH TO DRIVE THE COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE                 
CWA...THOUGH...CROSSING UPPER MI TONIGHT AND REACHING THE MILWAUKEE             
AREA BY 00Z SUN. UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES (OR THE TROUGH DIGS               
ENOUGH SOUTH)...THE AREA WILL BE UNDER WEAK MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS             
AND 7-7.5C/KM LAPSE RATES. THE GFS AND NAM SHOW LIGHT QPF GRADUALLY             
SINKING SE WITH TIME...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE                         
FRONTOGENESIS. ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO CONTINUE 20 POPS THROUGH                
MUCH OF THE NIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN THE CENTRAL U.P. SINCE THE UPPER            
FLOW DOES NOT APPEAR TO ALLOW FOR A FAST MOTION SOUTH WITH THE PCPN.            
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...LOW CLOUDS SEEN OVER MANITOBA WILL MOVE                
INTO UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OVER THE NORTH                 
CENTRAL U.P. WHERE UPSLOPE AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED. CLOUDS             
ARE EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING UNTIL DRIER            
AIR AND ANTICYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH OVER               
NRN SASKATCHEWAN NOSING IN...ALONG WITH DAYTIME MIXING...HELP                   
MIX/CLEAR THEM OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DECLINED TO MENTION ANY PCPN             
WITH THE LOW CLOUDS GIVEN LACK OF REPORTS UPSTREAM AND THAT                     
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE MOISTURE TO BE QUITE SHALLOW.                             
BIGGEST IMPACTS FROM THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS WILL BE ON TEMPS              
AND WINDS. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT ARE LIKELY OCCURRING TOWARD SUNRISE                
SINCE THEY PROBABLY WILL NOT FALL OFF MUCH UNTIL THE FRONT                      
PASSES...DUE TO A SW BREEZE KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED. GUSTY             
NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BRING TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 50S               
AND POSSIBLY UPPER 40S...COOLEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WEST            
HALF OF UPPER MI. WITH THE COOL AIR MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT...TEMPS              
ARE GOING TO STRUGGLE RISING TOMORROW. LATEST MET/MAV GUIDANCE ARE A            
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND GIVEN WHAT                  
TEMPERATURES ARE DOING UPSTREAM OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA...FEEL THAT              
IS PROBABLY THE WAY TO GO. MUCH OF THE NORTHERN U.P. SHOULD BE STUCK            
IN THE 50S...THANKS TO 900MB TEMPS DROPPING TO 2-4C. THE SOUTHERN               
U.P. WILL BE WARMER...ESPECIALLY DOWN NEAR MNM WHERE 900MB TEMPS ARE            
THE WARMEST.                                                                    
.LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRI)...                                      
FIRST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM IS POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING TEMPS AND                
WIDESPREAD FROST AWAY FM THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE. LARGE               
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH               
EARLY SATURDAY. INITIALLY DURING SATURDAY EVENING...NORTHERLY BLYR              
WINDS KEEP TEMPS FM FALLING TOO QUICKLY BUT EVENTUALLY WINDS MOST               
EVERYWHERE WILL BECOME LIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND SKIES BECOMING CLEAR              
SET UP A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS VERY DRY AIR            
MOVES ACROSS IN THE FORM OF A PRECIPITABLE WATER MINIMUM. COOP                  
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE MINS IN FAVORED COLD SPOTS FALLING               
BLO 32F AND HAVE WENT THIS WAY WITH THE LATEST MIN TEMP GRIDS.                  
INCREASED FROST COVERAGE AS WELL...WITH WIDESPREAD FROST EXPECTED               
OVR MUCH OF THE CWA...AWAY FM THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE. THOUGHT ABOUT            
GOING WITH MINS BLO GUIDANCE ALONG LK MICHIGAN SHORE TOO AS KESC CAN            
FALL OFF MORE THAN GUIDANCE SHOWS IN THESE TYPE OF SETUPS...BUT                 
SINCE EAST WINDS FLOWING OFF LK MICHIGAN LATE MAY PROMOTE SOME LAKE             
EFFECT CLOUDS (DELTA T/S APPROACH 10C WITH LK MI WATER TEMPS NEAR               
17C) KEPT SHORELINE IN THE UPR 30S-LWR 40S. ONLY HEADLINE POSTED                
ATTM WAS A FREEZE WATCH FOR INTERIOR WEST CWA...SOUTHERN HOUGHTON TO            
BARAGA AND ALSO IRON. FROST ADVY LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF              
THE CWA BUT WILL LEAVE THAT TO LATER SHIFTS AS IT IS STILL IN THE               
LONG TERM.                                                                      
NEXT ISSUE IS THE PERSISTENT QPF GFS SHOWS ALONG TIGHTENING H85                 
FRONT FOR SUN/SUN NIGHT. SIMILAR TO PAST MODEL RUNS...GFS REMAINS               
LARGELY ON ITS OWN AND WILL CONTINUE TO DISCOUNT. APPEARS THAT QPF              
IS TIED TO STEEPENING H85-H7/H7-H5 LAPSE RATES AOA 7.0C/KM AS A                 
RESULT OF WARM ADVECTION AT H7. THERE IS ALSO SOME WEAK MID LEVEL               
FGEN PRESENT ALONG H85 FRONT AS WELL. WARM FRONT...FIRST AT H85 THEN            
AT THE SFC...LIFT THROUGH CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. AS IT LOOKED YDY...BEST             
H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ALSO THE STEEPER POCKET OF LAPSE RATES               
TEAM UP TO THE NW OF UPR LAKES INTO MANITOBA AND ONTARIO. SOUNDINGS             
SHOW A MID CLOUD DECK STREAMING ACROSS THE CWA LATE SUN INTO SUN                
NIGHT. DRY LOW LEVELS BLO THIS CLOUD BASE SHOULD PROHIBIT MUCH IN               
THE WAY OF PCPN AND THUS KEPT THE FORECAST DRY OVER CWA.                        
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FM THIS WEEKEND IS               
THEN REPLACED BY A WARMING TREND EARLY THIS WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE OVER            
THE SOUTHWEST CONUS BUILDS INTO GREAT LAKES PUSHING THE WARM FRONT              
NORTH OF THE REGION. WESTERN CONUS TROUGH UPSTREAM OF THE RIDGE                 
SHIFTS EAST BY MIDWEEK BRINGING THE RETURN OF A COLD FRONT AND A                
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.               
EXTENDED MODELS USED...GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN GLOBAL...AND GFS                
ENSEMBLE AGREE IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN. TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT             
AND PCPN CHANCES INTO THE AREA REMAINS MAIN FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED.              
MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE...EXCEPT THE GFS ENSEMBLES...INDICATE A FROPA              
ON WED. SINCE THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THAT IDEA             
PLACED HIGHEST POPS IN THE GRIDS AT THAT TIME. INCREASING MOISTURE              
ADVECTION AT H85 AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD EVEN TRIGGER SCATTERED                
SHOWERS OUT OF A MID CLOUD DECK AS EARLY AS TUESDAY. BUT SINCE                  
GREATEST GRADIENT IN THIS ADVANCING MOISTURE STAYS OVR WESTERN LK               
SUPERIOR...KEPT ANY POPS TUE OUT OF THE LAND PORTION OF THE WESTERN             
CWA UNTIL LATE TUE NIGHT. THESE MID CLOUDS ON TUE COULD AFFECT MAX              
TEMPS. MIXING TO H85 TEMPS IN MID TEENS RESULTS IN MAX TEMPS INTO               
THE LWR 80S BUT DUE TO POSSIBLE CLOUDS...TEMPERED THIS BACK TO THE              
MID-UPR 70S WHICH IS STILL A NUDGE ABOVE MOST GUIDANCE.                         
FRONT CLEARS MOST OF CWA BY LATER THU BUT THEN STALLS OUT JUST TO               
THE SOUTH OVR WI AND LWR MI AS THE BOUNDARY BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE             
UPPER FLOW. DOES NOT SEEM THAT BOUNDARY IS FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO DROP              
POPS IN ITS WAKE. IN FACT...LATEST GFS/ECMWF NOW INDICATE A H85-H7              
WAVE RIDES ALONG THIS SFC BOUNDARY TO BRING A WIDESPREAD RAIN TO UPR            
LAKES THU. MOST PCPN WOULD BE OUT OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY...BUT THE                
APPROACH OF A MORE NORTHERN STREAM ORIGIN WAVE MAY BRING ANOTHER                
CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE IN THE DAY. JUST INCLUDED SOME POPS OVR WRN LK             
SUPERIOR AT THIS POINT.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
ALTHOUGH STRONG WSW WINDS WL LINGER JUST ABV THE SFC THIS EVNG...               
LOSS OF DIURNAL HTG WL LIMIT MIXING OF THIS MOMENTUM TO THE SFC AND             
RESULT IN LLWS AT BOTH SITES. OTRW...THE LLVLS WL BE TOO DRY PER                
RECENT TAMDAR SDNGS FOR ANYTHING BUT VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVNG.                  
EXPECT A SHARP WSHFT TO NNE FOLLOWING COLD FROPA LATE TNGT. THERE               
MAY BE A -SHRA AT CMX WITH THE APRCH OF THIS FNT CLOSER TO MORE                 
IMPRESSIVE DYNAMIC FORCING IN ONTARIO. AIRMASS UPSTREAM IS NOT                  
PARTICULARLY MOIST...SO EXPECT A BKN SC DECK/MVFR CONDITIONS TO                 
IMPACT ONLY SAW WHERE EXPECTED POST FROPA WIND WL UPSLOPE AS MUCH               
COOLER AIR ARRIVES ON THE HEELS OF GUSTY WINDS. DIURNAL HTG WL SCT              
OUT THIS MVFR DECK AT SAW SAT AFTN.                                             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
SW WINDS OF 15 TO 30 KT...GREATEST OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR                   
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WILL DIMINISH BRIEFLY THIS EVENING...THEN               
RAPIDLY INCREASE OUT OF THE N OR NE TO 20 TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT IN            
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. TOUGH             
CALL ON WHETHER OR NOT WINDS WILL REACH GALE FORCE ON NORTH CENTRAL             
AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT. RAPID PRESSURE RISES BEHIND             
THE FRONT WOULD SUGGEST IT...BUT WIND REPORTS AT EXPOSED                        
LOCATIONS...EVEN ON LAKE WINNIPEG...HAVE BEEN GENERALLY 30 KT OR                
LESS. THEREFORE...HAVE NOT GONE WITH A GALE WARNING AND MENTIONED A             
FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS INSTEAD. WINDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AND A             
GALE WARNING COULD STILL BE ISSUED. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER              
NRN SASKATCHEWAN NOSING SE INTO LAKE SUPERIOR ON SAT WILL HELP                  
DIMINISH THE WINDS TO UNDER 20 KT BY SAT EVENING. LIGHT WIND REGIME             
PERSISTS INTO MONDAY THEN SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD             
FRONT INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS TUE BEFORE DIMINISHING ON WED.                       
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  FREEZE WATCH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING                 
  MIZ004-010-084.                                                               
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...KC                                                                     
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM..AJ                                                         
LONG TERM...JLA                                                                 
AVIATION...KC                                                                   
MARINE...AJ/JLA                                                                 
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
730 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008                                                      
UPDATED FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE                                                    
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
19Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING               
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND TROUGHING DROPPING DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL               
CANADA. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...A SHRTWV STRETCHES FROM NE ONTARIO SW            
TO NW WI...WHICH IS COMBINING WITH MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND                  
7-7.5C/KM LAPSE RATES IN PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND                         
THUNDERSTORMS ON LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE KEWEENAW. AHEAD OF THE                  
TROUGH...WARM AIR HAS MOVED INTO UPPER MI FROM THE PLAINS...WITH A              
15Z SOUNDING FROM SAW SHOWING 850MB TEMPS OF 16C. TEMPERATURES HAVE             
NOT MIXED UP TO THIS LEVEL...DESPITE A BREEZY SOUTHWEST WIND...DUE              
TO THE LOWER SUN ANGLE AROUND THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX. NEVERTHELESS...             
READINGS HAVE CLIMBED ABOVE NORMAL WITH DOWNSLOPE AREAS AROUND                  
80...WHILE LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE COOLER LAKE MI WATERS ARE IN               
THE MID 60S. TO THE NW...COOLER AIR CAN BE SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH            
MANITOBA...BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING INTO            
THE 40S OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA...COMPARED TO 70 DEGREE READINGS AHEAD            
OF THE FRONT. 850MB TEMPS WERE 1C AT CYQD AT -4C AT CHURCHILL                   
MB...INDICATIVE ALSO OF THE COLD AIR. SOME CELLULAR LOW CLOUDS ARE              
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD AIR...BUT VERY FEW REPORTS OF ANY PCPN.                
FARTHER TO THE NW...HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER FAR NORTHERN                  
SASKATCHEWAN.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...                                           
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL DIG A BIT MORE TOWARDS              
UPPER MI DURING THE NEXT 18 HOURS...BUT THEN START MOVING EASTWARD              
DUE TO UPPER TROUGH JUST OFF THE WEST COAST TRYING TO PUSH EAST. THE            
DIGGING WILL BE ENOUGH TO DRIVE THE COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE                 
CWA...THOUGH...CROSSING UPPER MI TONIGHT AND REACHING THE MILWAUKEE             
AREA BY 00Z SUN. UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES (OR THE TROUGH DIGS               
ENOUGH SOUTH)...THE AREA WILL BE UNDER WEAK MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS             
AND 7-7.5C/KM LAPSE RATES. THE GFS AND NAM SHOW LIGHT QPF GRADUALLY             
SINKING SE WITH TIME...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE                         
FRONTOGENESIS. ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO CONTINUE 20 POPS THROUGH                
MUCH OF THE NIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN THE CENTRAL U.P. SINCE THE UPPER            
FLOW DOES NOT APPEAR TO ALLOW FOR A FAST MOTION SOUTH WITH THE PCPN.            
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...LOW CLOUDS SEEN OVER MANITOBA WILL MOVE                
INTO UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OVER THE NORTH                 
CENTRAL U.P. WHERE UPSLOPE AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED. CLOUDS             
ARE EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING UNTIL DRIER            
AIR AND ANTICYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH OVER               
NRN SASKATCHEWAN NOSING IN...ALONG WITH DAYTIME MIXING...HELP                   
MIX/CLEAR THEM OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DECLINED TO MENTION ANY PCPN             
WITH THE LOW CLOUDS GIVEN LACK OF REPORTS UPSTREAM AND THAT                     
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE MOISTURE TO BE QUITE SHALLOW.                             
BIGGEST IMPACTS FROM THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS WILL BE ON TEMPS              
AND WINDS. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT ARE LIKELY OCCURRING TOWARD SUNRISE                
SINCE THEY PROBABLY WILL NOT FALL OFF MUCH UNTIL THE FRONT                      
PASSES...DUE TO A SW BREEZE KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED. GUSTY             
NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BRING TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 50S               
AND POSSIBLY UPPER 40S...COOLEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WEST            
HALF OF UPPER MI. WITH THE COOL AIR MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT...TEMPS              
ARE GOING TO STRUGGLE RISING TOMORROW. LATEST MET/MAV GUIDANCE ARE A            
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND GIVEN WHAT                  
TEMPERATURES ARE DOING UPSTREAM OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA...FEEL THAT              
IS PROBABLY THE WAY TO GO. MUCH OF THE NORTHERN U.P. SHOULD BE STUCK            
IN THE 50S...THANKS TO 900MB TEMPS DROPPING TO 2-4C. THE SOUTHERN               
U.P. WILL BE WARMER...ESPECIALLY DOWN NEAR MNM WHERE 900MB TEMPS ARE            
THE WARMEST.                                                                    
.LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRI)...                                      
FIRST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM IS POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING TEMPS AND                
WIDESPREAD FROST AWAY FM THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE. LARGE               
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH               
EARLY SATURDAY. INITIALLY DURING SATURDAY EVENING...NORTHERLY BLYR              
WINDS KEEP TEMPS FM FALLING TOO QUICKLY BUT EVENTUALLY WINDS MOST               
EVERYWHERE WILL BECOME LIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND SKIES BECOMING CLEAR              
SET UP A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS VERY DRY AIR            
MOVES ACROSS IN THE FORM OF A PRECIPITABLE WATER MINIMUM. COOP                  
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE MINS IN FAVORED COLD SPOTS FALLING               
BLO 32F AND HAVE WENT THIS WAY WITH THE LATEST MIN TEMP GRIDS.                  
INCREASED FROST COVERAGE AS WELL...WITH WIDESPREAD FROST EXPECTED               
OVR MUCH OF THE CWA...AWAY FM THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE. THOUGHT ABOUT            
GOING WITH MINS BLO GUIDANCE ALONG LK MICHIGAN SHORE TOO AS KESC CAN            
FALL OFF MORE THAN GUIDANCE SHOWS IN THESE TYPE OF SETUPS...BUT                 
SINCE EAST WINDS FLOWING OFF LK MICHIGAN LATE MAY PROMOTE SOME LAKE             
EFFECT CLOUDS (DELTA T/S APPROACH 10C WITH LK MI WATER TEMPS NEAR               
17C) KEPT SHORELINE IN THE UPR 30S-LWR 40S. ONLY HEADLINE POSTED                
ATTM WAS A FREEZE WATCH FOR INTERIOR WEST CWA...SOUTHERN HOUGHTON TO            
BARAGA AND ALSO IRON. FROST ADVY LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF              
THE CWA BUT WILL LEAVE THAT TO LATER SHIFTS AS IT IS STILL IN THE               
LONG TERM.                                                                      
NEXT ISSUE IS THE PERSISTENT QPF GFS SHOWS ALONG TIGHTENING H85                 
FRONT FOR SUN/SUN NIGHT. SIMILAR TO PAST MODEL RUNS...GFS REMAINS               
LARGELY ON ITS OWN AND WILL CONTINUE TO DISCOUNT. APPEARS THAT QPF              
IS TIED TO STEEPENING H85-H7/H7-H5 LAPSE RATES AOA 7.0C/KM AS A                 
RESULT OF WARM ADVECTION AT H7. THERE IS ALSO SOME WEAK MID LEVEL               
FGEN PRESENT ALONG H85 FRONT AS WELL. WARM FRONT...FIRST AT H85 THEN            
AT THE SFC...LIFT THROUGH CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. AS IT LOOKED YDY...BEST             
H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ALSO THE STEEPER POCKET OF LAPSE RATES               
TEAM UP TO THE NW OF UPR LAKES INTO MANITOBA AND ONTARIO. SOUNDINGS             
SHOW A MID CLOUD DECK STREAMING ACROSS THE CWA LATE SUN INTO SUN                
NIGHT. DRY LOW LEVELS BLO THIS CLOUD BASE SHOULD PROHIBIT MUCH IN               
THE WAY OF PCPN AND THUS KEPT THE FORECAST DRY OVER CWA.                        
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FM THIS WEEKEND IS               
THEN REPLACED BY A WARMING TREND EARLY THIS WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE OVER            
THE SOUTHWEST CONUS BUILDS INTO GREAT LAKES PUSHING THE WARM FRONT              
NORTH OF THE REGION. WESTERN CONUS TROUGH UPSTREAM OF THE RIDGE                 
SHIFTS EAST BY MIDWEEK BRINGING THE RETURN OF A COLD FRONT AND A                
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.               
EXTENDED MODELS USED...GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN GLOBAL...AND GFS                
ENSEMBLE AGREE IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN. TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT             
AND PCPN CHANCES INTO THE AREA REMAINS MAIN FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED.              
MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE...EXCEPT THE GFS ENSEMBLES...INDICATE A FROPA              
ON WED. SINCE THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THAT IDEA             
PLACED HIGHEST POPS IN THE GRIDS AT THAT TIME. INCREASING MOISTURE              
ADVECTION AT H85 AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD EVEN TRIGGER SCATTERED                
SHOWERS OUT OF A MID CLOUD DECK AS EARLY AS TUESDAY. BUT SINCE                  
GREATEST GRADIENT IN THIS ADVANCING MOISTURE STAYS OVR WESTERN LK               
SUPERIOR...KEPT ANY POPS TUE OUT OF THE LAND PORTION OF THE WESTERN             
CWA UNTIL LATE TUE NIGHT. THESE MID CLOUDS ON TUE COULD AFFECT MAX              
TEMPS. MIXING TO H85 TEMPS IN MID TEENS RESULTS IN MAX TEMPS INTO               
THE LWR 80S BUT DUE TO POSSIBLE CLOUDS...TEMPERED THIS BACK TO THE              
MID-UPR 70S WHICH IS STILL A NUDGE ABOVE MOST GUIDANCE.                         
FRONT CLEARS MOST OF CWA BY LATER THU BUT THEN STALLS OUT JUST TO               
THE SOUTH OVR WI AND LWR MI AS THE BOUNDARY BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE             
UPPER FLOW. DOES NOT SEEM THAT BOUNDARY IS FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO DROP              
POPS IN ITS WAKE. IN FACT...LATEST GFS/ECMWF NOW INDICATE A H85-H7              
WAVE RIDES ALONG THIS SFC BOUNDARY TO BRING A WIDESPREAD RAIN TO UPR            
LAKES THU. MOST PCPN WOULD BE OUT OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY...BUT THE                
APPROACH OF A MORE NORTHERN STREAM ORIGIN WAVE MAY BRING ANOTHER                
CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE IN THE DAY. JUST INCLUDED SOME POPS OVR WRN LK             
SUPERIOR AT THIS POINT.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
ALTHOUGH STRONG WSW WINDS WL LINGER JUST ABV THE SFC THIS EVNG...               
LOSS OF DIURNAL HTG WL LIMIT MIXING OF THIS MOMENTUM TO THE SFC AND             
RESULT IN LLWS AT BOTH SITES. OTRW...THE LLVLS WL BE TOO DRY PER                
RECENT TAMDAR SDNGS FOR ANYTHING BUT VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVNG.                  
EXPECT A SHARP WSHFT TO NNE FOLLOWING COLD FROPA LATE TNGT. THERE               
MAY BE A -SHRA AT CMX WITH THE APRCH OF THIS FNT CLOSER TO MORE                 
IMPRESSIVE DYNAMIC FORCING IN ONTARIO. AIRMASS UPSTREAM IS NOT                  
PARTICULARLY MOIST...SO EXPECT A BKN SC DECK/MVFR CONDITIONS TO                 
IMPACT ONLY SAW WHERE EXPECTED POST FROPA WIND WL UPSLOPE AS MUCH               
COOLER AIR ARRIVES ON THE HEELS OF GUSTY WINDS. DIURNAL HTG WL SCT              
OUT THIS MVFR DECK AT SAW SAT AFTN.                                             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
SW WINDS OF 15 TO 30 KT...GREATEST OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR                   
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WILL DIMINISH BRIEFLY THIS EVENING...THEN               
RAPIDLY INCREASE OUT OF THE N OR NE TO 20 TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT IN            
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. TOUGH             
CALL ON WHETHER OR NOT WINDS WILL REACH GALE FORCE ON NORTH CENTRAL             
AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT. RAPID PRESSURE RISES BEHIND             
THE FRONT WOULD SUGGEST IT...BUT WIND REPORTS AT EXPOSED                        
LOCATIONS...EVEN ON LAKE WINNIPEG...HAVE BEEN GENERALLY 30 KT OR                
LESS. THEREFORE...HAVE NOT GONE WITH A GALE WARNING AND MENTIONED A             
FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS INSTEAD. WINDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AND A             
GALE WARNING COULD STILL BE ISSUED. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER              
NRN SASKATCHEWAN NOSING SE INTO LAKE SUPERIOR ON SAT WILL HELP                  
DIMINISH THE WINDS TO UNDER 20 KT BY SAT EVENING. LIGHT WIND REGIME             
PERSISTS INTO MONDAY THEN SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD             
FRONT INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS TUE BEFORE DIMINISHING ON WED.                       
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  FREEZE WATCH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING                 
  MIZ004-010-084.                                                               
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM..AJ                                                         
LONG TERM...JLA                                                                 
AVIATION...KC                                                                   
MARINE...AJ/JLA                                                                 
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
400 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
19Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING               
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND TROUGHING DROPPING DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL               
CANADA. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...A SHRTWV STRETCHES FROM NE ONTARIO SW            
TO NW WI...WHICH IS COMBINING WITH MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND                  
7-7.5C/KM LAPSE RATES IN PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND                         
THUNDERSTORMS ON LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE KEWEENAW. AHEAD OF THE                  
TROUGH...WARM AIR HAS MOVED INTO UPPER MI FROM THE PLAINS...WITH A              
15Z SOUNDING FROM SAW SHOWING 850MB TEMPS OF 16C. TEMPERATURES HAVE             
NOT MIXED UP TO THIS LEVEL...DESPITE A BREEZY SOUTHWEST WIND...DUE              
TO THE LOWER SUN ANGLE AROUND THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX. NEVERTHELESS...             
READINGS HAVE CLIMBED ABOVE NORMAL WITH DOWNSLOPE AREAS AROUND                  
80...WHILE LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE COOLER LAKE MI WATERS ARE IN               
THE MID 60S. TO THE NW...COOLER AIR CAN BE SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH            
MANITOBA...BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING INTO            
THE 40S OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA...COMPARED TO 70 DEGREE READINGS AHEAD            
OF THE FRONT. 850MB TEMPS WERE 1C AT CYQD AT -4C AT CHURCHILL                   
MB...INDICATIVE ALSO OF THE COLD AIR. SOME CELLULAR LOW CLOUDS ARE              
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD AIR...BUT VERY FEW REPORTS OF ANY PCPN.                
FARTHER TO THE NW...HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER FAR NORTHERN                  
SASKATCHEWAN.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...                                           
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL DIG A BIT MORE TOWARDS              
UPPER MI DURING THE NEXT 18 HOURS...BUT THEN START MOVING EASTWARD              
DUE TO UPPER TROUGH JUST OFF THE WEST COAST TRYING TO PUSH EAST. THE            
DIGGING WILL BE ENOUGH TO DRIVE THE COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE                 
CWA...THOUGH...CROSSING UPPER MI TONIGHT AND REACHING THE MILWAUKEE             
AREA BY 00Z SUN. UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES (OR THE TROUGH DIGS               
ENOUGH SOUTH)...THE AREA WILL BE UNDER WEAK MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS             
AND 7-7.5C/KM LAPSE RATES. THE GFS AND NAM SHOW LIGHT QPF GRADUALLY             
SINKING SE WITH TIME...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE                         
FRONTOGENESIS. ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO CONTINUE 20 POPS THROUGH                
MUCH OF THE NIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN THE CENTRAL U.P. SINCE THE UPPER            
FLOW DOES NOT APPEAR TO ALLOW FOR A FAST MOTION SOUTH WITH THE PCPN.            
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...LOW CLOUDS SEEN OVER MANITOBA WILL MOVE                
INTO UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OVER THE NORTH                 
CENTRAL U.P. WHERE UPSLOPE AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED. CLOUDS             
ARE EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING UNTIL DRIER            
AIR AND ANTICYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH OVER               
NRN SASKATCHEWAN NOSING IN...ALONG WITH DAYTIME MIXING...HELP                   
MIX/CLEAR THEM OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DECLINED TO MENTION ANY PCPN             
WITH THE LOW CLOUDS GIVEN LACK OF REPORTS UPSTREAM AND THAT                     
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE MOISTURE TO BE QUITE SHALLOW.                             
BIGGEST IMPACTS FROM THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS WILL BE ON TEMPS              
AND WINDS. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT ARE LIKELY OCCURRING TOWARD SUNRISE                
SINCE THEY PROBABLY WILL NOT FALL OFF MUCH UNTIL THE FRONT                      
PASSES...DUE TO A SW BREEZE KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED. GUSTY             
NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BRING TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 50S               
AND POSSIBLY UPPER 40S...COOLEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WEST            
HALF OF UPPER MI. WITH THE COOL AIR MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT...TEMPS              
ARE GOING TO STRUGGLE RISING TOMORROW. LATEST MET/MAV GUIDANCE ARE A            
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND GIVEN WHAT                  
TEMPERATURES ARE DOING UPSTREAM OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA...FEEL THAT              
IS PROBABLY THE WAY TO GO. MUCH OF THE NORTHERN U.P. SHOULD BE STUCK            
IN THE 50S...THANKS TO 900MB TEMPS DROPPING TO 2-4C. THE SOUTHERN               
U.P. WILL BE WARMER...ESPECIALLY DOWN NEAR MNM WHERE 900MB TEMPS ARE            
THE WARMEST.                                                                    
.LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRI)...                                      
FIRST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM IS POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING TEMPS AND                
WIDESPREAD FROST AWAY FM THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE. LARGE               
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH               
EARLY SATURDAY. INITIALLY DURING SATURDAY EVENING...NORTHERLY BLYR              
WINDS KEEP TEMPS FM FALLING TOO QUICKLY BUT EVENTUALLY WINDS MOST               
EVERYWHERE WILL BECOME LIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND SKIES BECOMING CLEAR              
SET UP A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS VERY DRY AIR            
MOVES ACROSS IN THE FORM OF A PRECIPITABLE WATER MINIMUM. COOP                  
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE MINS IN FAVORED COLD SPOTS FALLING               
BLO 32F AND HAVE WENT THIS WAY WITH THE LATEST MIN TEMP GRIDS.                  
INCREASED FROST COVERAGE AS WELL...WITH WIDESPREAD FROST EXPECTED               
OVR MUCH OF THE CWA...AWAY FM THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE. THOUGHT ABOUT            
GOING WITH MINS BLO GUIDANCE ALONG LK MICHIGAN SHORE TOO AS KESC CAN            
FALL OFF MORE THAN GUIDANCE SHOWS IN THESE TYPE OF SETUPS...BUT                 
SINCE EAST WINDS FLOWING OFF LK MICHIGAN LATE MAY PROMOTE SOME LAKE             
EFFECT CLOUDS (DELTA T/S APPROACH 10C WITH LK MI WATER TEMPS NEAR               
17C) KEPT SHORELINE IN THE UPR 30S-LWR 40S. ONLY HEADLINE POSTED                
ATTM WAS A FREEZE WATCH FOR INTERIOR WEST CWA...SOUTHERN HOUGHTON TO            
BARAGA AND ALSO IRON. FROST ADVY LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF              
THE CWA BUT WILL LEAVE THAT TO LATER SHIFTS AS IT IS STILL IN THE               
LONG TERM.                                                                      
NEXT ISSUE IS THE PERSISTENT QPF GFS SHOWS ALONG TIGHTENING H85                 
FRONT FOR SUN/SUN NIGHT. SIMILAR TO PAST MODEL RUNS...GFS REMAINS               
LARGELY ON ITS OWN AND WILL CONTINUE TO DISCOUNT. APPEARS THAT QPF              
IS TIED TO STEEPENING H85-H7/H7-H5 LAPSE RATES AOA 7.0C/KM AS A                 
RESULT OF WARM ADVECTION AT H7. THERE IS ALSO SOME WEAK MID LEVEL               
FGEN PRESENT ALONG H85 FRONT AS WELL. WARM FRONT...FIRST AT H85 THEN            
AT THE SFC...LIFT THROUGH CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. AS IT LOOKED YDY...BEST             
H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ALSO THE STEEPER POCKET OF LAPSE RATES               
TEAM UP TO THE NW OF UPR LAKES INTO MANITOBA AND ONTARIO. SOUNDINGS             
SHOW A MID CLOUD DECK STREAMING ACROSS THE CWA LATE SUN INTO SUN                
NIGHT. DRY LOW LEVELS BLO THIS CLOUD BASE SHOULD PROHIBIT MUCH IN               
THE WAY OF PCPN AND THUS KEPT THE FORECAST DRY OVER CWA.                        
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FM THIS WEEKEND IS               
THEN REPLACED BY A WARMING TREND EARLY THIS WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE OVER            
THE SOUTHWEST CONUS BUILDS INTO GREAT LAKES PUSHING THE WARM FRONT              
NORTH OF THE REGION. WESTERN CONUS TROUGH UPSTREAM OF THE RIDGE                 
SHIFTS EAST BY MIDWEEK BRINGING THE RETURN OF A COLD FRONT AND A                
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.               
EXTENDED MODELS USED...GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN GLOBAL...AND GFS                
ENSEMBLE AGREE IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN. TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT             
AND PCPN CHANCES INTO THE AREA REMAINS MAIN FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED.              
MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE...EXCEPT THE GFS ENSEMBLES...INDICATE A FROPA              
ON WED. SINCE THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THAT IDEA             
PLACED HIGHEST POPS IN THE GRIDS AT THAT TIME. INCREASING MOISTURE              
ADVECTION AT H85 AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD EVEN TRIGGER SCATTERED                
SHOWERS OUT OF A MID CLOUD DECK AS EARLY AS TUESDAY. BUT SINCE                  
GREATEST GRADIENT IN THIS ADVANCING MOISTURE STAYS OVR WESTERN LK               
SUPERIOR...KEPT ANY POPS TUE OUT OF THE LAND PORTION OF THE WESTERN             
CWA UNTIL LATE TUE NIGHT. THESE MID CLOUDS ON TUE COULD AFFECT MAX              
TEMPS. MIXING TO H85 TEMPS IN MID TEENS RESULTS IN MAX TEMPS INTO               
THE LWR 80S BUT DUE TO POSSIBLE CLOUDS...TEMPERED THIS BACK TO THE              
MID-UPR 70S WHICH IS STILL A NUDGE ABOVE MOST GUIDANCE.                         
FRONT CLEARS MOST OF CWA BY LATER THU BUT THEN STALLS OUT JUST TO               
THE SOUTH OVR WI AND LWR MI AS THE BOUNDARY BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE             
UPPER FLOW. DOES NOT SEEM THAT BOUNDARY IS FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO DROP              
POPS IN ITS WAKE. IN FACT...LATEST GFS/ECMWF NOW INDICATE A H85-H7              
WAVE RIDES ALONG THIS SFC BOUNDARY TO BRING A WIDESPREAD RAIN TO UPR            
LAKES THU. MOST PCPN WOULD BE OUT OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY...BUT THE                
APPROACH OF A MORE NORTHERN STREAM ORIGIN WAVE MAY BRING ANOTHER                
CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE IN THE DAY. JUST INCLUDED SOME POPS OVR WRN LK             
SUPERIOR AT THIS POINT.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
GUSTY WINDS OCCURRING AT BOTH TAF SITES DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE                 
GRADIENT BETWEEN TWO COLD FRONTS DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA AND HIGH             
PRESSURE OVER SE ONTARIO. IN ADDITION...WARM MOIST AIR BEING PULLED             
INTO THE AREA IS SUPPORTING MID LEVEL CLOUDS...WITH A FEW SHOWERS               
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. ONLY CONFIDENT RIGHT            
NOW TO INCLUDE A 3 HOUR TEMPO GROUP FOR CMX WITH A VFR CIG AND CB               
GROUP. ALL OF THE PCPN IS MOVING SE...AND SHOULD BE AWAY FROM CMX BY            
00Z AND SAW BY 06Z. WINDS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING COMBINED WITH                
WINDS STAYING BREEZY JUST ABOVE THE SFC SHOULD RESULT IN SOME LLWS              
THROUGH 06Z. THE SECOND COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL CANADA SHOULD DROP              
SOUTH ACROSS THE TAF SITES AFTER 06Z...CAUSING A RAPID WIND SHIFT               
AND INCREASE FROM THE NORTH...ALONG WITH SOME MVFR STRATOCUMULUS.               
WIND DIRECTION NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR A BKN DECK AT CMX COMPARED TO               
SAW...SO NO CIG MENTIONED AT CMX. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE SAT                
MRNG AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS NOSING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MVFR              
CLOUDS AT SAW WILL LIKELY BREAK UP JUST AFTER 18Z.                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
SW WINDS OF 15 TO 30 KT...GREATEST OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR                   
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WILL DIMINISH BRIEFLY THIS EVENING...THEN               
RAPIDLY INCREASE OUT OF THE N OR NE TO 20 TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT IN            
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. TOUGH             
CALL ON WHETHER OR NOT WINDS WILL REACH GALE FORCE ON NORTH CENTRAL             
AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT. RAPID PRESSURE RISES BEHIND             
THE FRONT WOULD SUGGEST IT...BUT WIND REPORTS AT EXPOSED                        
LOCATIONS...EVEN ON LAKE WINNIPEG...HAVE BEEN GENERALLY 30 KT OR                
LESS. THEREFORE...HAVE NOT GONE WITH A GALE WARNING AND MENTIONED A             
FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS INSTEAD. WINDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AND A             
GALE WARNING COULD STILL BE ISSUED. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER              
NRN SASKATCHEWAN NOSING SE INTO LAKE SUPERIOR ON SAT WILL HELP                  
DIMINISH THE WINDS TO UNDER 20 KT BY SAT EVENING. LIGHT WIND REGIME             
PERSISTS INTO MONDAY THEN SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD             
FRONT INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS TUE BEFORE DIMINISHING ON WED.                       
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  FREEZE WATCH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING                 
  MIZ004-010-084.                                                               
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM..AJ                                                         
LONG TERM...JLA                                                                 
AVIATION...AJ                                                                   
MARINE...AJ/JLA                                                                 
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
133 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE                                
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MAINLY ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL            
FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE NRN CONUS DOWNSTREAM FROM A RIDGE OVER WRN              
NOAM. THE MOST PROMINENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION WAS WELL              
TO THE NORTH OVER NRN MANITOBA WITH A WEAKER/SHEARED SHRTWV                     
FARTHER S FROM WRN ONTARIO INTO THE CNTRL DAKOTAS. AT THE SFC...A               
996 MB LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NE MANITOBA WITH A COLD FRONT THROUGH LK            
WINNIPEG INTO SRN SASK. A TROUGH ALSO EXTENDED FROM SE MANITOBA INTO            
CNTRL SD. STRONG SSW FLOW INTO UPPER MI AND LK SUPERIOR...PER KMQT              
VAD WIND PRFL 45 KT 2K FT WIND...WITH STRONG 925-800 MB THETA-E                 
ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED 300K-305K ISENTROPIC ASCENT SUPPORTED                  
SHRA/TSRA OVER NE LAKE SUPERIOR AND SOME ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS INTO N             
CNTRL UPPER MI.                                                                 
TODAY...EXPECT THE ISOLD SHOWERS OVER N CNTRL UPPER MI TO PROGRESS              
TO THE EAST BEFORE 12Z. ADDITIONAL SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL             
BE SUPPORTED BY A BAND OF 305K-310K ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE                
TROUGH AND DAKOTAS SHRTWV. TS POTENTIAL REMAINS WITH MUCAPE VALUES              
IN THE 200-400 J/KG RANGE ASSOCIATED WITH STEEP 700-500 MB LAPSE                
RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM. 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND 14C AND DECENT MIXING             
WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND STIFF SW WINDS WILL SUPPORT MAX READINGS INTO            
THE UPPER 70S.                                                                  
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS THE NRN MANITOBA SHRTWV AND SFC LOW MOVES            
INTO NRN QUEBEC...A COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE            
UPPER GREAT LAKES. A BAND OF 900-800 MB FGEN WITH THE SHARP TEMP                
GRADIENT COULD PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TONIGHT. HOWEVER SINCE               
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED/SHALLOW ONLY MINIMAL 15-20 PCT POPS REMAIN             
IN THE FCST. THE COLDER AIR WITH 900 MB TEMPS TO AROUND 3C ARRIVE               
SATURDAY MORNING ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT                
PCPN GIVEN SFC TEMP NEAR 16C ON THE SOUTH END OF LAKE SUPERIOR.                 
HOWEVER... 850-700 MB DRYING WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR MORE THAN                
BRIEF DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...DRY ADVECTION WITH MIXING AND              
DIVERGENT FLOW SHOULD BRING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON             
WITH MORE EARLY FALL-LIKE MAX READINGS IN THE UPPER 500S NORTH TO               
THE MID 60S SOUTH.                                                              
SUNDAY...THE 18Z/00Z GFS AND ENSEMBLE SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR WAA                 
PCPN WITH SRLY 850-700 MB FLOW DEVELOPING AND MOISTURE MOVING TOWARD            
THE AREA FROM THE MS VALLEY. HOWEVER...SINCE THE 12Z/00Z ECMWF AND              
UKMET REMAIN DRY...WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING MENTION OF PCPN YET.                 
EVEN THOUGH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN REMAINS SLOWER THAN THE                       
OPERATIONAL MODEL...TRENDS FROM 12Z/00Z AND 06Z/12Z GFS SUPPORT                 
SLIGHTLY FASTER PATTERN PROGRESSION AND ADDITION OF SLIGHT CHANCE               
POPS OVER THE CNTRL/E CWA WED . OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES               
MON-THU.                                                                        
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
GUSTY WINDS OCCURRING AT BOTH TAF SITES DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE                 
GRADIENT BETWEEN TWO COLD FRONTS DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA AND HIGH             
PRESSURE OVER SE ONTARIO. IN ADDITION...WARM MOIST AIR BEING PULLED             
INTO THE AREA IS SUPPORTING MID LEVEL CLOUDS...WITH A FEW SHOWERS               
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. ONLY CONFIDENT RIGHT            
NOW TO INCLUDE A 3 HOUR TEMPO GROUP FOR CMX WITH A VFR CIG AND CB               
GROUP. ALL OF THE PCPN IS MOVING SE...AND SHOULD BE AWAY FROM CMX BY            
00Z AND SAW BY 06Z. WINDS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING COMBINED WITH                
WINDS STAYING BREEZY JUST ABOVE THE SFC SHOULD RESULT IN SOME LLWS              
THROUGH 06Z. THE SECOND COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL CANADA SHOULD DROP              
SOUTH ACROSS THE TAF SITES AFTER 06Z...CAUSING A RAPID WIND SHIFT               
AND INCREASE FROM THE NORTH...ALONG WITH SOME MVFR STRATOCUMULUS.               
WIND DIRECTION NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR A BKN DECK AT CMX COMPARED TO               
SAW...SO NO CIG MENTIONED AT CMX. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE SAT                
MRNG AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS NOSING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MVFR              
CLOUDS AT SAW WILL LIKELY BREAK UP JUST AFTER 18Z.                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 10 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                      
10 AM UPDATE...WINDS HAVE FAILED SO FAR ON WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TO             
REACH GALE FORCE. LOOKING AT MODELS...IT APPEARS WINDS SHOULD STAY              
UNDER GALES ON WESTERN SUPERIOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE THE            
GALE WARNING FOR 263 AND 264 HAS BEEN CANCELLED. EASTERN LAKE                   
SUPERIOR HAS BEEN ON THE FRINGE OF GALES THIS MORNING...WITH THE                
EASTERN BUOY AMAZINGLY HAVING A FEW HOURS OF GUSTS TO 33 KT...PRETTY            
HIGH FOR THAT BUOY ON A SOUTH WIND CONSIDERING THE ANEMOMETER IS                
BELOW THE FORECAST WIND HEIGHT LEVEL. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH ON                  
EASTERN SUPERIOR AROUND NOON...SO GALE WARNING END TIME LOOKS GOOD.             
ALSO...HAVE PUT UP A GALE WATCH FOR LATER TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE               
RISES QUICKLY BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT. THERE REMAINS ENOUGH                  
UNCERTAINTY TO ISSUE ANY GALE WARNING AT THIS TIME. DECISION ON                 
WARNING WILL BE MADE WITH THE 4 PM ISSUANCE.                                    
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AS A                
COLD FRONT OVER NORTH CENTRAL CANADA SETTLES OVER THUNDER BAY                   
ONTARIO BY THIS EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS              
THIS MORNING...WITH FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR                
THROUGH THIS MORNING. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON               
WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. AS THE FRONT NEARS...WINDS                
WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS GRADIENTS WEAKEN. NORTHERLY              
STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF AND SHOULD               
END BY SUNRISE SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.                 
WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 20 KNOTS ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE                 
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTH WINDS WILL                    
INCREASE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS            
UP TO 30 KNOTS STARTING UP AS EARLY AS NEXT TUESDAY.                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LSZ266-267.                             
  GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR                     
    LSZ264-266-267.                                                             
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...JLB                                                                
AVIATION...AJ                                                                   
MARINE...DLG/AJ                                                                 
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
945 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008                                                      
UPDATED MARINE DISCUSSION AND WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SECTIONS                   
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MAINLY ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL            
FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE NRN CONUS DOWNSTREAM FROM A RIDGE OVER WRN              
NOAM. THE MOST PROMINENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION WAS WELL              
TO THE NORTH OVER NRN MANITOBA WITH A WEAKER/SHEARED SHRTWV                     
FARTHER S FROM WRN ONTARIO INTO THE CNTRL DAKOTAS. AT THE SFC...A               
996 MB LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NE MANITOBA WITH A COLD FRONT THROUGH LK            
WINNIPEG INTO SRN SASK. A TROUGH ALSO EXTENDED FROM SE MANITOBA INTO            
CNTRL SD. STRONG SSW FLOW INTO UPPER MI AND LK SUPERIOR...PER KMQT              
VAD WIND PRFL 45 KT 2K FT WIND...WITH STRONG 925-800 MB THETA-E                 
ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED 300K-305K ISENTROPIC ASCENT SUPPORTED                  
SHRA/TSRA OVER NE LAKE SUPERIOR AND SOME ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS INTO N             
CNTRL UPPER MI.                                                                 
TODAY...EXPECT THE ISOLD SHOWERS OVER N CNTRL UPPER MI TO PROGRESS              
TO THE EAST BEFORE 12Z. ADDITIONAL SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL             
BE SUPPORTED BY A BAND OF 305K-310K ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE                
TROUGH AND DAKOTAS SHRTWV. TS POTENTIAL REMAINS WITH MUCAPE VALUES              
IN THE 200-400 J/KG RANGE ASSOCIATED WITH STEEP 700-500 MB LAPSE                
RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM. 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND 14C AND DECENT MIXING             
WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND STIFF SW WINDS WILL SUPPORT MAX READINGS INTO            
THE UPPER 70S.                                                                  
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS THE NRN MANITOBA SHRTWV AND SFC LOW MOVES            
INTO NRN QUEBEC...A COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE            
UPPER GREAT LAKES. A BAND OF 900-800 MB FGEN WITH THE SHARP TEMP                
GRADIENT COULD PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TONIGHT. HOWEVER SINCE               
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED/SHALLOW ONLY MINIMAL 15-20 PCT POPS REMAIN             
IN THE FCST. THE COLDER AIR WITH 900 MB TEMPS TO AROUND 3C ARRIVE               
SATURDAY MORNING ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT                
PCPN GIVEN SFC TEMP NEAR 16C ON THE SOUTH END OF LAKE SUPERIOR.                 
HOWEVER... 850-700 MB DRYING WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR MORE THAN                
BRIEF DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...DRY ADVECTION WITH MIXING AND              
DIVERGENT FLOW SHOULD BRING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON             
WITH MORE EARLY FALL-LIKE MAX READINGS IN THE UPPER 500S NORTH TO               
THE MID 60S SOUTH.                                                              
SUNDAY...THE 18Z/00Z GFS AND ENSEMBLE SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR WAA                 
PCPN WITH SRLY 850-700 MB FLOW DEVELOPING AND MOISTURE MOVING TOWARD            
THE AREA FROM THE MS VALLEY. HOWEVER...SINCE THE 12Z/00Z ECMWF AND              
UKMET REMAIN DRY...WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING MENTION OF PCPN YET.                 
EVEN THOUGH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN REMAINS SLOWER THAN THE                       
OPERATIONAL MODEL...TRENDS FROM 12Z/00Z AND 06Z/12Z GFS SUPPORT                 
SLIGHTLY FASTER PATTERN PROGRESSION AND ADDITION OF SLIGHT CHANCE               
POPS OVER THE CNTRL/E CWA WED . OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES               
MON-THU.                                                                        
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
LLWS TO PERSIST OVER BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS AND             
AGAIN THIS EVENING OVER BOTH LOCATIONS. ONCE DAYTIME MIXING KICKS               
IN...MIXING WILL PRODUCE GUSTY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY UNTIL THE             
SURFACE GRADIENT RELAXES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. AFOREMENTIONED WARM             
AIR ADVECTION TO BRING MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO THE REGION DURING THE                 
DAY...AND MAY ALSO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A                       
THUNDERSTORM. PROBABILITIES FOR THIS ARE QUITE LOW AS LOWER LEVELS              
STILL FAIRLY DRY PER LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SO WILL LEAVE OUT                  
MENTION FOR NOW. WINDS WILL VEER NORTH FOLLOWING THE FROPA. GUIDANCE            
POINTS TO SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT TIME                     
FOLLOWING THE FROPA ALSO.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 10 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                      
10 AM UPDATE...WINDS HAVE FAILED SO FAR ON WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TO             
REACH GALE FORCE. LOOKING AT MODELS...IT APPEARS WINDS SHOULD STAY              
UNDER GALES ON WESTERN SUPERIOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE THE            
GALE WARNING FOR 263 AND 264 HAS BEEN CANCELLED. EASTERN LAKE                   
SUPERIOR HAS BEEN ON THE FRINGE OF GALES THIS MORNING...WITH THE                
EASTERN BUOY AMAZINGLY HAVING A FEW HOURS OF GUSTS TO 33 KT...PRETTY            
HIGH FOR THAT BUOY ON A SOUTH WIND CONSIDERING THE ANEMOMETER IS                
BELOW THE FORECAST WIND HEIGHT LEVEL. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH ON                  
EASTERN SUPERIOR AROUND NOON...SO GALE WARNING END TIME LOOKS GOOD.             
ALSO...HAVE PUT UP A GALE WATCH FOR LATER TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE               
RISES QUICKLY BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT. THERE REMAINS ENOUGH                  
UNCERTAINTY TO ISSUE ANY GALE WARNING AT THIS TIME. DECISION ON                 
WARNING WILL BE MADE WITH THE 4 PM ISSUANCE.                                    
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AS A                
COLD FRONT OVER NORTH CENTRAL CANADA SETTLES OVER THUNDER BAY                   
ONTARIO BY THIS EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS              
THIS MORNING...WITH FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR                
THROUGH THIS MORNING. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON               
WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. AS THE FRONT NEARS...WINDS                
WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS GRADIENTS WEAKEN. NORTHERLY              
STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF AND SHOULD               
END BY SUNRISE SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.                 
WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 20 KNOTS ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE                 
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTH WINDS WILL                    
INCREASE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS            
UP TO 30 KNOTS STARTING UP AS EARLY AS NEXT TUESDAY.                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LSZ266-267.                             
  GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR                     
    LSZ264-266-267.                                                             
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...JLB                                                                
AVIATION...DLG                                                                  
MARINE...DLG/AJ                                                                 
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
731 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MAINLY ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL            
FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE NRN CONUS DOWNSTREAM FROM A RIDGE OVER WRN              
NOAM. THE MOST PROMINENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION WAS WELL              
TO THE NORTH OVER NRN MANITOBA WITH A WEAKER/SHEARED SHRTWV                     
FARTHER S FROM WRN ONTARIO INTO THE CNTRL DAKOTAS. AT THE SFC...A               
996 MB LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NE MANITOBA WITH A COLD FRONT THROUGH LK            
WINNIPEG INTO SRN SASK. A TROUGH ALSO EXTENDED FROM SE MANITOBA INTO            
CNTRL SD. STRONG SSW FLOW INTO UPPER MI AND LK SUPERIOR...PER KMQT              
VAD WIND PRFL 45 KT 2K FT WIND...WITH STRONG 925-800 MB THETA-E                 
ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED 300K-305K ISENTROPIC ASCENT SUPPORTED                  
SHRA/TSRA OVER NE LAKE SUPERIOR AND SOME ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS INTO N             
CNTRL UPPER MI.                                                                 
TODAY...EXPECT THE ISOLD SHOWERS OVER N CNTRL UPPER MI TO PROGRESS              
TO THE EAST BEFORE 12Z. ADDITIONAL SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL             
BE SUPPORTED BY A BAND OF 305K-310K ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE                
TROUGH AND DAKOTAS SHRTWV. TS POTENTIAL REMAINS WITH MUCAPE VALUES              
IN THE 200-400 J/KG RANGE ASSOCIATED WITH STEEP 700-500 MB LAPSE                
RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM. 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND 14C AND DECENT MIXING             
WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND STIFF SW WINDS WILL SUPPORT MAX READINGS INTO            
THE UPPER 70S.                                                                  
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS THE NRN MANITOBA SHRTWV AND SFC LOW MOVES            
INTO NRN QUEBEC...A COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE            
UPPER GREAT LAKES. A BAND OF 900-800 MB FGEN WITH THE SHARP TEMP                
GRADIENT COULD PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TONIGHT. HOWEVER SINCE               
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED/SHALLOW ONLY MINIMAL 15-20 PCT POPS REMAIN             
IN THE FCST. THE COLDER AIR WITH 900 MB TEMPS TO AROUND 3C ARRIVE               
SATURDAY MORNING ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT                
PCPN GIVEN SFC TEMP NEAR 16C ON THE SOUTH END OF LAKE SUPERIOR.                 
HOWEVER... 850-700 MB DRYING WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR MORE THAN                
BRIEF DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...DRY ADVECTION WITH MIXING AND              
DIVERGENT FLOW SHOULD BRING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON             
WITH MORE EARLY FALL-LIKE MAX READINGS IN THE UPPER 500S NORTH TO               
THE MID 60S SOUTH.                                                              
SUNDAY...THE 18Z/00Z GFS AND ENSEMBLE SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR WAA                 
PCPN WITH SRLY 850-700 MB FLOW DEVELOPING AND MOISTURE MOVING TOWARD            
THE AREA FROM THE MS VALLEY. HOWEVER...SINCE THE 12Z/00Z ECMWF AND              
UKMET REMAIN DRY...WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING MENTION OF PCPN YET.                 
EVEN THOUGH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN REMAINS SLOWER THAN THE                       
OPERATIONAL MODEL...TRENDS FROM 12Z/00Z AND 06Z/12Z GFS SUPPORT                 
SLIGHTLY FASTER PATTERN PROGRESSION AND ADDITION OF SLIGHT CHANCE               
POPS OVER THE CNTRL/E CWA WED . OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES               
MON-THU.                                                                        
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
LLWS TO PERSIST OVER BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS AND             
AGAIN THIS EVENING OVER BOTH LOCATIONS. ONCE DAYTIME MIXING KICKS               
IN...MIXING WILL PRODUCE GUSTY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY UNTIL THE             
SURFACE GRADIENT RELAXES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. AFOREMENTIONED WARM             
AIR ADVECTION TO BRING MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO THE REGION DURING THE                 
DAY...AND MAY ALSO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A                       
THUNDERSTORM. PROBABILITIES FOR THIS ARE QUITE LOW AS LOWER LEVELS              
STILL FAIRLY DRY PER LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SO WILL LEAVE OUT                  
MENTION FOR NOW. WINDS WILL VEER NORTH FOLLOWING THE FROPA. GUIDANCE            
POINTS TO SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT TIME                     
FOLLOWING THE FROPA ALSO.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AS A                
COLD FRONT OVER NORTH CENTRAL CANADA SETTLES OVER THUNDER BAY                   
ONTARIO BY THIS EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS              
THIS MORNING...WITH FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR                
THROUGH THIS MORNING. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON               
WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. AS THE FRONT NEARS...WINDS                
WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS GRADIENTS WEAKEN. NORTHERLY              
STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF AND SHOULD               
END BY SUNRISE SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.                 
WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 20 KNOTS ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE                 
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTH WINDS WILL                    
INCREASE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS            
UP TO 30 KNOTS STARTING UP AS EARLY AS NEXT TUESDAY.                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...GALE WARNING TIL 12 PM EDT TODAY FOR LSZ266-267.                
                GALE WARNING FROM 8AM EDT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS                   
                   AFTERNOON FOR LSZ263-264.                                    
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
DLG                                                                             
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...JLB                                                                
AVIATION...DLG                                                                  
MARINE...DLG                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
724 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 350 AM/                                                  
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE EAST TOWARDS              
THE ATLANTIC COAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS HUDSON BAY.                 
THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE                 
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH ONLY VERY SMALL CHANCES OF                      
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED                 
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                                        
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 350 AM/...TODAY                                        
02Z SURFACE/RUC ANALYSIS AND IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW                           
STRONG 1031MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FAR EASTERN GREAT                 
LAKES...WHICH EXTENDS WESTWARD INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN.                          
MEANWHILE...IMPRESSIVE LOOKING SHORTWAVE IS DROPPING SOUTHEAST NORTH            
OF LAKE WINNIPEG.  SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF THIS WAVE HAS A                
SURFACE TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS SOUTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...AND A WARM              
FRONTAL LIKE FEATURE ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO.  WARM                              
ADVECTION/MOISTURE ADVECTION ON NOSE OF A 50KT LLJ IS GENERATING                
SHOWERS AND STORMS NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WHICH IS HEADING EAST               
WELL NORTH OF THE REGION...WHILE CONVECTION ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH            
IS WIDELY SCT DESPITE MID-LEVEL THETAE RIDGE AND ELEVATED                       
INSTABILITY.  MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE FIRST 12 HOURS INCLUDE              
MARINE HEADLINES AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE                  
DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH AND APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH...THEN PRECIP             
CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE              
TROUGH.                                                                         
TODAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LIFTS NE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC                
OCEAN WHILE THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE POTENT SHORTWAVE              
OVER CENTRAL CANADA TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY.  NARROW                  
MOISTURE CHANNEL/THETAE RIDGE WILL SURGE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH            
AS IT SHIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND HEADS TOWARDS                  
EASTERN UPPER.  SOME FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE                 
PRESENT WITHIN THIS MOISTURE PLUME...BUT WE ARE NOT REALLY TALKING              
ABOUT THAT MUCH MOISTURE...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MOST OF            
THIS MOISTURE IS ABOVE 600MB...SO DO NOT BELIEVE THERE IS MUCH OF A             
CHANCE OF PRECIP.  OUTSIDE OF THESE CLOUDS...SOME OCCASIONAL WARM               
ADVECTION CLOUDS WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT MOST OF THE AREA               
WILL SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER             
IN WARMER AIR WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.                                 
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 350 AM/...TONIGHT AND BEYOND                            
TONIGHT...STRONGER COLD FRONT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL CANADA CATCHES UP             
WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AS THEY MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT               
AND APPROACH EASTERN UPPER BY MORNING.  THERE IS SOME DECENT                    
850-700MB -DIV Q AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHILE SOME STRONG 850-700MB FGEN            
RESIDES BEHIND BOUNDARY...BUT ALL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL PASS WELL            
NORTH OF THE REGION.  HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS LACKING ALONG AND BEHIND            
THE FRONT WITHIN THE FORCING AREA AND HAVE A HARD TIME THINKING                 
PRECIP IS POSSIBLE JUDGING BY THE DRYNESS OF MODEL SOUNDINGS ABOVE              
900MB.  IN FACT...LOOKING UPSTREAM ACROSS CANADA...ONLY MID AND HIGH            
CLOUDS ARE PRESENT ALONG THE FRONT.  SO...WILL YANK ALREADY SMALL               
PRECIP CHANCES AND JUST SHOW A GENERAL INCREASE IN                              
CLOUDINESS...WHICH WAS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST.  A BREEZY AND WARM              
NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.                                    
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE REST OF              
EASTERN UPPER AND ALL OF NORTHERN LOWER BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.                  
MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED ALONG THE FRONT SO STILL BELIEVE MOST AREAS            
WILL STAY DRY.  BUT KIND OF INTERESTING...MODIFYING A NAM40 SOUNDING            
AT 21Z NEAR WEST BRANCH YIELDS 500 J/KG OF ML CAPE WITH ONLY 29 J/KG            
OF CIN...WHICH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD BE ABLE TO                    
OVERCOME.  WILL ALLOW SOME MARGIN OF ERROR HERE AND MAINTAIN A 20               
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF A LAND FROM FRANKFORT TO ALPENA.               
FRONT SAGS SOUTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE                 
BUILDS IN.  NAM/GFS DROP 850MB TEMPS TO AROUND 2C ACROSS EASTERN                
UPPER WHICH IS A GOOD 2-4C COOLER THAN THE ECMWF.  IF THE NAM/GFS               
SOLUTIONS COMES TO PASS AND HIGH CLOUDS DO NOT FILTER IN...PERHAPS              
SOME PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER IN THE COOL SPOTS            
NEAR RACO.                                                                      
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST OVER               
THIS PERIOD.  GENERAL UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF TROUGHING               
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND POINTS WEST...AND RIDGING FROM THE              
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE EAST.  THIS RIDGE WILL PREVENT                  
SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TO REACH THE GREAT                   
LAKES.  RATHER...THEY WILL BE SHUNTED TO THE NE INTO CENTRAL                    
CANADA.  AS A RESULT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE                 
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST ON                    
TUESDAY.  THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH            
TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS RETURN FLOW GRADUALLY                
BECOMES ESTABLISHED.  HIGHS WILL BE COMFORTABLY IN THE MID 60S TO               
MID 70S RANGE AND MINS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.                  
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 350 AM/                                                    
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS EARLY THIS MORNING AND REMAINS                       
TIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT UNTIL A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THE AREA.  NAM12            
SHOWS 40 TO 45 KNOTS OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND AROUND                     
WHITEFISH POINT THROUGH AROUND 8AM SAT MORNING.  ALTHOUGH WE ARE                
NEUTRAL IN TERMS OF STABILITY...MIXING COMBINED WITH COASTAL                    
CONVERGENCE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO SURFACE.             
IF GALES DO OCCUR DURING THE DAY...THEY MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED                 
LONGER INTO TONIGHT.  WILL LET THE DAY CREW ASSESS HOW THINGS ARE               
GOING.                                                                          
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 723 AM/...VALID FOR 12Z TAFS                             
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  TIGHT                          
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE            
TO THE NORTHWEST WILL CREATE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY.  AS                  
SURFACE WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING...WIND SHEAR WILL                  
DEVELOP RIGHT OFF THE SURFACE AT ALL TAF SITES AND CONTINUE THROUGH             
THE NIGHT.                                                                      
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ323-346.               
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ341-342-344-345.          
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LHZ345>349.               
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ321-322.               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
125 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE                                
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
19Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING               
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS...WITH THE MAIN WESTERLIES IN A WNW FLOW               
ORIENTATION IN SOUTHERN CANADA. THE MAIN FEATURE TO NOTE IS A POTENT            
LOOKING SHRTWV IN NE ALBERTA. OVER UPPER MI...THE WEATHER HAS BEEN              
QUIET...THANKS TO LOW TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ROTATING AROUND A 1032MB             
HIGH SITUATED NEAR GEORGIAN BAY. THE LOW LEVEL AIR HAS NOT BEEN                 
COMPLETELY DRY...THOUGH...AND THIS WAS EVIDENT BY A STRATUS DECK                
THAT HAS BEEN SLOWLY MIXING OUT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL UPPER MI. TAMDAR             
SOUNDINGS SHOWED A SHARP INVERSION FROM 900MB TO THE SFC...AND SE               
WINDS WERE ADVECTING MOISTURE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN UP THE MENOMINEE                
RIVER. ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING HAS OCCURRED NOW TO MIX SOME OF THE               
DRIER AIR ABOVE 900MB TO THE SFC...ALLOWING THE CLOUDS TO BREAK UP.             
TO OUR SOUTH...DIURNAL CUMULUS CAN BE SEEN OVER EASTERN IA WHERE                
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW 60S. TO THE WEST...VERY WARM TEMPS ARE SEEN            
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...WITH BISMARCK AT 90 AS OF 19Z. THE 850MB TEMP              
THERE AT 12Z WAS 20C...COMPARED TO 11C AT INL...2C AT PICKLE LAKE               
ONTARIO AND -9C AT MOOSONEE ONTARIO. WELL OFF TO THE NW ASSOCIATED              
WITH THE SHRTWV...A 1002MB LOW AS OVER FAR NRN MANITOBA...WITH A                
TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND A COLD FRONT                   
EXTENDING WEST THROUGH ALBERTA. IN YELLOWKNIFE...IT IS 41 F WITH -DZ            
AND A GUSTY NW WIND...A SIGN OF AIR TO COME FOR EARLY THIS WEEKEND.             
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRI)...                                                
SHRTWV TROUGH OVER NE ALBERTA WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST DURING THE               
NEXT 24 HOURS...REACHING FAR NW ONTARIO BY 00Z SAT. AS THIS                     
OCCURS...IT WILL DRIVE THE COLD FRONT IN NORTHERN ALBERTA THROUGH               
MUCH OF NW ONTARIO...REACHING THUNDER BAY BY 00Z SAT. THEREFORE                 
UPPER MICHIGAN IS GOING TO BE UNDER A WARM ADVECTION REGIME...                  
BRINGING SOME OF THAT WARM AIR SEEN OVER IN BISMARCK EASTWARD ACROSS            
UPPER MI. 850MB TEMPS CLIMB FROM THE CURRENT 6-10C READINGS PER RUC             
ANALYSIS TO AROUND 14C FOR THE DAY FRIDAY.                                      
TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STRUGGLE FALLING MUCH WITH A BREEZY SW            
WIND...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SHORELINES. WARMEST READINGS WILL BE IN              
THE WESTERN U.P. WHERE LOWS ARE NOT EXPECTED BELOW 60. THE QUESTION             
IS HOW MUCH DOES IT COOL DOWN A FEW THOUSAND FEET OFF THE SURFACE IN            
THE INTERIOR OVER NORTHERN WI AND WESTERN UPPER MI. THE REASON IS               
THAT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING UP THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S                    
DEWPOINTS OVER EASTERN IA. IF THE AIRMASS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE                
COOLS DOWN...THEN A STRATUS DECK COULD FORM OVER NRN WI AND WESTERN             
UPPER MI. RH PROGS AT 925 AND 900MB FROM THE GFS...NAM AND OUR LOCAL            
WRF-ARW RUN REFLECT THAT IDEA BY SHOWING VALUES OF OVER 90 PCT. ON              
THE OTHER HAND...SW WINDS DO NOT SEEM TO DEVELOP STRATUS DECKS AS               
WELL HERE. THEREFORE...HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BY GOING PARTLY                
CLOUDY...AND SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY IN THE SKY GRIDS WITH VALUES               
INCREASING SW TO NE AFTER 06Z. NO PCPN WORRIES OUT OF THIS SINCE                
WHATEVER DECK WOULD FORM SHOULD BE THIN.                                        
FRIDAY...ISENTROPIC LIFT SEEN ON THE 310K SFC...RELATED TO THE WARM             
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV/COLD FRONT...SHOULD RESULT IN A DECK              
OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING NW TO SE ACROSS UPPER MI DURING THE DAY.              
ALL MODELS DEPICT SOME LIGHT PCPN OCCURRING OUT OF THESE MID CLOUDS             
(LIKELY AN ACCAS DECK). CANNOT RULE THIS OUT DUE TO TWO FEATURES                
COMING IN PLAY...A WEAK ZONE OF 700-600MB FRONTOGENESIS AND RIGHT               
ENTRANCE REGION FORCING WITH A 50-60KT JET MOVING NW TO SE ACROSS               
LAKE SUPERIOR. IN ADDITION...SOUNDINGS LIFTED FROM 700MB WHEN THE               
MID CLOUDS ARE PRESENT INDICATE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE...DUE TO             
THE ADVECTION OF 7.5-8C/KM LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE CWA. THEREFORE 20             
POPS EXIST IN THE FORECAST WITH BOTH SHOWERS AND THUNDER MENTIONED.             
CLOUD COVER CREATES SOME CONCERN WITH MAX TEMPS...AND HAVE LOWERED              
HIGHS JUST A DEGREE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THICKER CLOUD             
COVER THAT IS INDICATED BY MODELS. EITHER WAY...IT SHOULD BE WARM               
WITH RESPECT TO MID SEPTEMBER READINGS...BUT STILL BELOW RECORD                 
HIGHS WHICH ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.                                          
.LONG TERM (FRI NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THU)...                                      
CHANCES OF RAIN ARE THE MAIN CONCERN FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS AND NAM IN               
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER AIR AND MSLP PATTERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.            
FOLLOWED THE LOCAL WRF-ARW IN ITS DEPICTION OF BRINGING COLD FRONT              
THROUGH LATE IN THE EVENING INTO NORTHERN LK SUPERIOR AND ACROSS ALL            
CWA EXCEPT FAR SOUTH MENOMINEE COUNTY BY DAYBREAK SAT. GREATEST H85             
MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH THE FRONT SHIFTS INTO EASTERN CWA EARLY                 
EVENING SO KEPT THE POPS THERE. OTHERWISE...HAVE CLOUDS DECREASING              
EARLY IN THE EVENING THEN INCREASING AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT IN WAKE OF            
THE COLD FRONT. H85 TEMPS DROP TO +3C BY 12Z. SOUNDINGS SHOW                    
MOISTENING BLO H85...LIKELY SOME LK EFFECT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS.                
KEPT THE SMALL POP IN THERE OVERNIGHT...BUT RESTRICTED IT TO JUST               
POTENTIAL LIGHT LK EFFECT PCPN. GIVEN UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW AND                
TEMPS AT TOP OF INVERSION NOT WARMING...WILL PROBABLY TAKE A WHILE              
FOR THE LK EFFECT CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE ON SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL DRYING             
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN/PWAT MIN TO ENHANCE RADIATIONAL                   
COOLING SHOULD LEAD TO CLEAR AND CALM NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWERED             
GOING MINS INTO THE LWR-MID 30S TOWARD COOP MOS GUIDANCE.                       
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COOLER TEMPS AROUND FOR THE WEEKEND EASES INTO               
EASTERN CANADA BY NEXT MON WHILE RIDGE/WARM AIR OVER SOUTHERN UNITED            
STATES BUILDS TOWARD GREAT LAKES. RIDGE QUITE STRONG...WITH HEIGHTS             
NEARING 590DAM TUE INTO WED. WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH UPPER MI/LAKE             
SUPERIOR SUN NIGHT. CONCENTRATED MOISTURE ADVECTION REMAINS NORTH               
AND WEST OF UPPER MICHIGAN SO ANY POPS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO LAKE               
SUPERIOR. SFC RIDGE IS CLOSE ENOUGH ON MON AND PERHAPS TUE AS WELL              
TO KEEP BLYR WINDS MAINLY FM THE SOUTH WHICH IS NOT IDEAL FOR                   
WARMING UP TOO MUCH. STILL...GIVEN H85 TEMPS ARE WARMING ABOVE +10C             
EXPECT AREAS AWAY FM LAKE MICHIGAN TO HAVE HIGH TEMPS INTO THE                  
MID-UPR 70S AND COULD EVEN SEE LWR 80S OVR WEST CWA. COLD FRONT                 
STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH ON WED-THU. FOLLOWED ECMWF...UKMET...            
AND CANADIAN IDEA WITH A SLOWER FROPA THAN GFS SHOWED. INTERESTING              
NOW THOUGH THAT THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF FLIPPED WITH THE GFS SLOWER AND               
THE ECMWF MORE PROGRESSIVE. CHANGES TO POPS WERE MINIMAL AND                    
ESSENTIALLY KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS OVR THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND ACROSS             
REST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. DEPENDING ON CLOUD               
COVER FOR WED...HIGH TEMPS MAY REACH WELL INTO THE 70S AND POSSIBLY             
LWR 80S AGAIN AS WINDS BECOME SW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
LLWS TO PERSIST OVER BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT. ONCE DAYTIME             
MIXING KICKS IN...MIXING WILL PRODUCE GUSTY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE              
DAY UNTIL THE GRADIENT RELAXES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. AFOREMENTIONED            
WARM AIR ADVECTION TO BRING MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO THE REGION DURING THE            
DAY...AND MAY ALSO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A                       
THUNDERSTORM. PROBABILITIES FOR THIS ARE QUITE LOW AS LOWER LEVELS              
STILL FAIRLY DRY PER LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SO WILL LEAVE OUT                  
MENTION FOR NOW.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND               
FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT OVER NORTH CENTRAL CANADA DROPS DOWN TO                  
THUNDER BAY ONTARIO BY FRIDAY EVENING. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO                
INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS THIS EVENING...WITH FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS              
OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A               
FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL                
LAKE SUPERIOR. AS THE FRONT NEARS...WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE. THE             
DECREASE IN WINDS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER POTENTIAL GALE                 
DEVELOPS LATER FRIDAY EVENING...THIS TIME BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO               
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. NORTHERLY GALES WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF             
AND SHOULD END BY SUNRISE SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE              
REGION. WINDS LESS THAN 20 KNOTS ON INTO SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE            
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT ACROSS. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE ON BACK SIDE              
OF THIS HIGH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS STARTING              
UP AS EARLY AS NEXT TUESDAY.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 12 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ266-267.                    
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...AJ                                                        
LONG TERM...JLA                                                                 
AVIATION...RJT                                                                  
MARINE...AJ/JLA                                                                 
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
735 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2008                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE                                
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
19Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING               
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS...WITH THE MAIN WESTERLIES IN A WNW FLOW               
ORIENTATION IN SOUTHERN CANADA. THE MAIN FEATURE TO NOTE IS A POTENT            
LOOKING SHRTWV IN NE ALBERTA. OVER UPPER MI...THE WEATHER HAS BEEN              
QUIET...THANKS TO LOW TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ROTATING AROUND A 1032MB             
HIGH SITUATED NEAR GEORGIAN BAY. THE LOW LEVEL AIR HAS NOT BEEN                 
COMPLETELY DRY...THOUGH...AND THIS WAS EVIDENT BY A STRATUS DECK                
THAT HAS BEEN SLOWLY MIXING OUT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL UPPER MI. TAMDAR             
SOUNDINGS SHOWED A SHARP INVERSION FROM 900MB TO THE SFC...AND SE               
WINDS WERE ADVECTING MOISTURE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN UP THE MENOMINEE                
RIVER. ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING HAS OCCURRED NOW TO MIX SOME OF THE               
DRIER AIR ABOVE 900MB TO THE SFC...ALLOWING THE CLOUDS TO BREAK UP.             
TO OUR SOUTH...DIURNAL CUMULUS CAN BE SEEN OVER EASTERN IA WHERE                
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW 60S. TO THE WEST...VERY WARM TEMPS ARE SEEN            
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...WITH BISMARCK AT 90 AS OF 19Z. THE 850MB TEMP              
THERE AT 12Z WAS 20C...COMPARED TO 11C AT INL...2C AT PICKLE LAKE               
ONTARIO AND -9C AT MOOSONEE ONTARIO. WELL OFF TO THE NW ASSOCIATED              
WITH THE SHRTWV...A 1002MB LOW AS OVER FAR NRN MANITOBA...WITH A                
TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND A COLD FRONT                   
EXTENDING WEST THROUGH ALBERTA. IN YELLOWKNIFE...IT IS 41 F WITH -DZ            
AND A GUSTY NW WIND...A SIGN OF AIR TO COME FOR EARLY THIS WEEKEND.             
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRI)...                                                
SHRTWV TROUGH OVER NE ALBERTA WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST DURING THE               
NEXT 24 HOURS...REACHING FAR NW ONTARIO BY 00Z SAT. AS THIS                     
OCCURS...IT WILL DRIVE THE COLD FRONT IN NORTHERN ALBERTA THROUGH               
MUCH OF NW ONTARIO...REACHING THUNDER BAY BY 00Z SAT. THEREFORE                 
UPPER MICHIGAN IS GOING TO BE UNDER A WARM ADVECTION REGIME...                  
BRINGING SOME OF THAT WARM AIR SEEN OVER IN BISMARCK EASTWARD ACROSS            
UPPER MI. 850MB TEMPS CLIMB FROM THE CURRENT 6-10C READINGS PER RUC             
ANALYSIS TO AROUND 14C FOR THE DAY FRIDAY.                                      
TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STRUGGLE FALLING MUCH WITH A BREEZY SW            
WIND...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SHORELINES. WARMEST READINGS WILL BE IN              
THE WESTERN U.P. WHERE LOWS ARE NOT EXPECTED BELOW 60. THE QUESTION             
IS HOW MUCH DOES IT COOL DOWN A FEW THOUSAND FEET OFF THE SURFACE IN            
THE INTERIOR OVER NORTHERN WI AND WESTERN UPPER MI. THE REASON IS               
THAT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING UP THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S                    
DEWPOINTS OVER EASTERN IA. IF THE AIRMASS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE                
COOLS DOWN...THEN A STRATUS DECK COULD FORM OVER NRN WI AND WESTERN             
UPPER MI. RH PROGS AT 925 AND 900MB FROM THE GFS...NAM AND OUR LOCAL            
WRF-ARW RUN REFLECT THAT IDEA BY SHOWING VALUES OF OVER 90 PCT. ON              
THE OTHER HAND...SW WINDS DO NOT SEEM TO DEVELOP STRATUS DECKS AS               
WELL HERE. THEREFORE...HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BY GOING PARTLY                
CLOUDY...AND SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY IN THE SKY GRIDS WITH VALUES               
INCREASING SW TO NE AFTER 06Z. NO PCPN WORRIES OUT OF THIS SINCE                
WHATEVER DECK WOULD FORM SHOULD BE THIN.                                        
FRIDAY...ISENTROPIC LIFT SEEN ON THE 310K SFC...RELATED TO THE WARM             
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV/COLD FRONT...SHOULD RESULT IN A DECK              
OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING NW TO SE ACROSS UPPER MI DURING THE DAY.              
ALL MODELS DEPICT SOME LIGHT PCPN OCCURRING OUT OF THESE MID CLOUDS             
(LIKELY AN ACCAS DECK). CANNOT RULE THIS OUT DUE TO TWO FEATURES                
COMING IN PLAY...A WEAK ZONE OF 700-600MB FRONTOGENESIS AND RIGHT               
ENTRANCE REGION FORCING WITH A 50-60KT JET MOVING NW TO SE ACROSS               
LAKE SUPERIOR. IN ADDITION...SOUNDINGS LIFTED FROM 700MB WHEN THE               
MID CLOUDS ARE PRESENT INDICATE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE...DUE TO             
THE ADVECTION OF 7.5-8C/KM LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE CWA. THEREFORE 20             
POPS EXIST IN THE FORECAST WITH BOTH SHOWERS AND THUNDER MENTIONED.             
CLOUD COVER CREATES SOME CONCERN WITH MAX TEMPS...AND HAVE LOWERED              
HIGHS JUST A DEGREE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THICKER CLOUD             
COVER THAT IS INDICATED BY MODELS. EITHER WAY...IT SHOULD BE WARM               
WITH RESPECT TO MID SEPTEMBER READINGS...BUT STILL BELOW RECORD                 
HIGHS WHICH ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.                                          
.LONG TERM (FRI NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THU)...                                      
CHANCES OF RAIN ARE THE MAIN CONCERN FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS AND NAM IN               
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER AIR AND MSLP PATTERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.            
FOLLOWED THE LOCAL WRF-ARW IN ITS DEPICTION OF BRINGING COLD FRONT              
THROUGH LATE IN THE EVENING INTO NORTHERN LK SUPERIOR AND ACROSS ALL            
CWA EXCEPT FAR SOUTH MENOMINEE COUNTY BY DAYBREAK SAT. GREATEST H85             
MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH THE FRONT SHIFTS INTO EASTERN CWA EARLY                 
EVENING SO KEPT THE POPS THERE. OTHERWISE...HAVE CLOUDS DECREASING              
EARLY IN THE EVENING THEN INCREASING AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT IN WAKE OF            
THE COLD FRONT. H85 TEMPS DROP TO +3C BY 12Z. SOUNDINGS SHOW                    
MOISTENING BLO H85...LIKELY SOME LK EFFECT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS.                
KEPT THE SMALL POP IN THERE OVERNIGHT...BUT RESTRICTED IT TO JUST               
POTENTIAL LIGHT LK EFFECT PCPN. GIVEN UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW AND                
TEMPS AT TOP OF INVERSION NOT WARMING...WILL PROBABLY TAKE A WHILE              
FOR THE LK EFFECT CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE ON SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL DRYING             
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN/PWAT MIN TO ENHANCE RADIATIONAL                   
COOLING SHOULD LEAD TO CLEAR AND CALM NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWERED             
GOING MINS INTO THE LWR-MID 30S TOWARD COOP MOS GUIDANCE.                       
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COOLER TEMPS AROUND FOR THE WEEKEND EASES INTO               
EASTERN CANADA BY NEXT MON WHILE RIDGE/WARM AIR OVER SOUTHERN UNITED            
STATES BUILDS TOWARD GREAT LAKES. RIDGE QUITE STRONG...WITH HEIGHTS             
NEARING 590DAM TUE INTO WED. WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH UPPER MI/LAKE             
SUPERIOR SUN NIGHT. CONCENTRATED MOISTURE ADVECTION REMAINS NORTH               
AND WEST OF UPPER MICHIGAN SO ANY POPS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO LAKE               
SUPERIOR. SFC RIDGE IS CLOSE ENOUGH ON MON AND PERHAPS TUE AS WELL              
TO KEEP BLYR WINDS MAINLY FM THE SOUTH WHICH IS NOT IDEAL FOR                   
WARMING UP TOO MUCH. STILL...GIVEN H85 TEMPS ARE WARMING ABOVE +10C             
EXPECT AREAS AWAY FM LAKE MICHIGAN TO HAVE HIGH TEMPS INTO THE                  
MID-UPR 70S AND COULD EVEN SEE LWR 80S OVR WEST CWA. COLD FRONT                 
STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH ON WED-THU. FOLLOWED ECMWF...UKMET...            
AND CANADIAN IDEA WITH A SLOWER FROPA THAN GFS SHOWED. INTERESTING              
NOW THOUGH THAT THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF FLIPPED WITH THE GFS SLOWER AND               
THE ECMWF MORE PROGRESSIVE. CHANGES TO POPS WERE MINIMAL AND                    
ESSENTIALLY KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS OVR THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND ACROSS             
REST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. DEPENDING ON CLOUD               
COVER FOR WED...HIGH TEMPS MAY REACH WELL INTO THE 70S AND POSSIBLY             
LWR 80S AGAIN AS WINDS BECOME SW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH 0Z SATURDAY.              
LLWS CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER BOTH SITES AS WINDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT            
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ONCE EARLY MORNING SUNSHINE KICKS                     
IN...WINDS SHOULD MIX DOWN AND CREATE GUSTY CONDITIONS FRI UNTIL                
GRADIENT RELAXES LATE IN THE FORECAST.                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND               
FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT OVER NORTH CENTRAL CANADA DROPS DOWN TO                  
THUNDER BAY ONTARIO BY FRIDAY EVENING. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO                
INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS THIS EVENING...WITH FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS              
OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A               
FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL                
LAKE SUPERIOR. AS THE FRONT NEARS...WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE. THE             
DECREASE IN WINDS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER POTENTIAL GALE                 
DEVELOPS LATER FRIDAY EVENING...THIS TIME BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO               
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. NORTHERLY GALES WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF             
AND SHOULD END BY SUNRISE SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE              
REGION. WINDS LESS THAN 20 KNOTS ON INTO SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE            
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT ACROSS. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE ON BACK SIDE              
OF THIS HIGH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS STARTING              
UP AS EARLY AS NEXT TUESDAY.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 12 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ266-267.                    
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...AJ                                                        
LONG TERM...JLA                                                                 
AVIATION...RJT                                                                  
MARINE...AJ/JLA                                                                 
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
152 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2008                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE                                
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A BROAD RIDGE CENTERED                
OVER FAR WRN NAMERICA WITH A BROAD TROF OVER THE CNTRL/E...ANCHORED             
BY THE POLAR VORTEX CENTERED OVER NRN HUDSON BAY. AS A RESULT...NW              
FLOW IS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. NEXT                     
SHORTWAVES OF REAL INTEREST ARE OVER THE SE YUKON AND THE WRN NW                
TERRITORIES. THESE SHORTWAVES WILL DIVE SE INTO THE CNTRL/ERN                   
NAMERICA TROF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CLOSER TO HOME...SFC                
HIGH PRES WAS CENTERED JUST NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING.             
STRATOCU HAS DEVELOPED NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE NIGHT AS                   
AIRMASS IS JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. IN ADDITION...              
PATCHY FOG/STRATUS HAS ALSO BEEN FORMING IN THE INTERIOR. AS                    
RESULT...TEMPS HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING WIDELY AND VARY QUITE A BIT                
ACROSS THE FCST AREA. A NUMBER OF OBS SITES ACROSS THE INTERIOR                 
CNTRL AND ERN FCST AREA HAVE STILL MANAGED TO FALL INTO THE 30S AS              
OF 08Z WITH SPINCICH LAKE THE COLDEST AT 32F. TO THE W...WAA REGIME             
ON BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH IS SUPPORTING MID CLOUDS OVER NE ND/NRN MN              
WITH RADARS SHOWING SOME NARROW BANDS OF RETURNS AND POSSIBLE                   
-SHRA/SPRINKLES.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WITH A NUMBER OF OBS SITES SHOWING TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS            
THE FROST ADVY AREA...WILL LET FROST ADVY RUN THRU EXPIRATION TIME              
OF 12Z. OTHERWISE...RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP TODAY AS HIGH PRES SLIPS            
TO THE ESE. WARMING WILL BE MOST APPARENT OVER THE W WHERE 850MB                
TEMPS CLIMB TO 10-12C BY 18Z (STILL 5-6C OUT E). MIXING TO 850MB                
YIELDS HIGH TEMPS IN THE LWR 70S W TO MID 60S E WHICH IS INLINE WITH            
AVBL 00Z MOS GUIDANCE. AS FOR CLOUD COVER...PATCHY FOG/STRATUS WILL             
QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE AND STRATOCU NEAR THE LAKE SHOULD               
ALSO DISSIPATE OR AT LEAST MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE MORNING AS                  
AIRMASS WARMS AND WINDS IN THE CLOUD LAYER BACK SRLY. STRONGEST WAA             
CURRENTLY FOCUSED TO THE W AND NW OF UPPER MI SURGES NE DURING THE              
DAY TODAY. AS A RESULT...MID CLOUDS BEING PRODUCED BY THE                       
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD ALSO SHIFT MOSTLY TO THE NE. A FEW                 
DISSIPATING REMNANTS PEELING SE WILL PROBABLY BE THE ONLY CLOUD                 
COVER HERE TODAY ONCE MORNING CLOUDS DEPART. SO...A GENERALLY MOSTLY            
SUNNY DAY IS ANTICIPATED.                                                       
TONIGHT AND FRI...PAIR OF SHORTWAVES CURRENTLY OVER NW CANADA WILL              
HEAD SE THEN E ACROSS SRN CANADA. ASSOCIATED STRENGTHENING SFC LOW              
OVER SASKATCHEWAN THIS EVENING WILL MOVE E...REACHING SRN HUDSON BAY            
FRI AFTN. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL DRAW UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR              
INTO THE UPPER LAKES REGION TONIGHT/FRI. WITH STRENGTHENING                     
LOW-LEVEL JET...ALWAYS NEED TO CONSIDER THE POTENTIAL OF ELEVATED               
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...WITH NOSE OF LOW-LEVEL JET/STRONGEST FLOW                 
PASSING TO THE N OF UPPER MI TONIGHT...POTENTIAL OF CONVECTION HERE             
STILL LOOKS MINIMAL. NAM FCST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A SMALL WINDOW WHERE            
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND THE TOP OF THE INVERSION TO                 
PROVIDE CAPE OF SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG FOR PARCELS LIFTED FROM ABOVE              
THE SFC BASED INVERSION. GFS FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW SIMILAR                        
MOISTENING...BUT WITH CAPE ONLY A LITTLE LESS THAN THE NAM. SO...A              
LITTLE CONCERNED THAT ISOLD SHRA/TSRA COULD DEVELOP...BUT SINCE                 
LOW-LEVEL JET IS FOCUSED N OF THE FCST AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE             
WITH A DRY FCST OVER ALL BUT NRN LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. INCREASING              
SW WINDS TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN MIN TEMPS CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN              
THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE W AND N WHERE WINDS WILL BE                
LEAST DECOUPLED. GFS/ETA MOS OF AROUND 60F FOR A MIN TEMP AT KIWD               
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. MID/UPPER 50S SHOULD BE COMMON ELSEWHERE FROM             
THE W INTO THE NCNTRL NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. READINGS SHOULD TREND DOWN            
TO AROUND 50F SCNTRL AND E WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER.                         
AS SFC LOW PRES HEADS FOR SRN HUDSON BAY FRI...ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT            
WILL DROP SE TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WILL PROVIDE NEARLY AN IDEAL            
SETUP FOR WARMTH AS AXIS OF 850MB THERMAL RIDGE ALMOST REACHES UPPER            
MI EARLY FRI AFTN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH SW WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS             
RISING TO AROUND 14C...TEMPS SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE RISING WELL INTO            
THE MID AND UPPER 70S OVER THE W AND CNTRL...WARMEST IN THE                     
DOWNSLOPE AREAS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW 80F READINGS.              
FLOW WILL BE BACKED ENOUGH OFF LAKE MICHIGAN FOR LWR TEMPS (UPPER               
60S/LWR 70S) DOWNWIND INTO THE FAR ERN FCST AREA. WINDS IN THE MIXED            
LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT GUSTS IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE IN MANY LOCATIONS             
FRI. AS FOR PCPN CHC...AIRMASS WILL PROBABLY BE CAPPED FRI...                   
ESPECIALLY SINCE MODELS MAY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES TOO HIGH ON SFC              
DWPTS. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO MAINTAIN THE              
INHERITED FCST OF JUST 20 POPS OVER THE WRN PORTION OF THE FCST                 
AREA...CLOSER TO APPROACHING COLD FRONT.                                        
COLD FRONT WILL DROP S THRU THE FCST AREA FRI NIGHT. WITH LOSS OF               
DAYTIME HEATING AND ONLY WEAK DEEP LAYER FORCING...THERE IS NO NEED             
TO GO ANY HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHC POPS WITH FROPA. WILL CARRY SLIGHT             
CHC POPS INTO EARLY SAT MORNING OVER THE FAR SCNTRL FCST AREA.                  
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRES WILL BEGIN TO BUILD SE TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT             
LAKES...PROVIDING A DRY/COOLER DAY SAT. TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE             
LWR 60S N TO UPPER 60S S.                                                       
EXPECT DRY WX TO CONTINUE SUN/MON AS MID-LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE NRN               
PLAINS BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA. LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPS TO REBOUND                
INTO THE UPPER 60S/LWR 70S FOR MON.                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT BOTH TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE                  
VFR...THANKS TO A DRY SOUTHEAST FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC COMING OUT              
OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SE OVER ONTARIO. THERE ARE A FEW PROBLEMS TO            
CONTEND WITH...THOUGH. LURKING TO THE SOUTH OF SAW ARE MVFR CLOUDS              
ACROSS DICKINSON/MENOMINEE AND DELTA COUNTIES. THESE HAVE PERSISTED             
THANKS TO SE FLOW OFF LAKE MI BRINGING MOISTURE UNDERNEATH WARM AIR             
SPREADING IN ALOFT. HOWEVER...SUNSHINE IS STARTING TO MIX THESE                 
OUT...SO DO NOT THINK THEY WILL BE IMPACTING SAW...DESPITE WINDS                
TRYING TO ADVECT THEM IN. TONIGHT...SW WINDS WILL BRING MORE                    
MOISTURE INTO UPPER MI FROM IA/NRN IL. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT AN IFR            
OR MVFR STRATUS DECK COULD FORM OVER NRN WI AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MOVE             
INTO SAW TOWARDS SUNRISE...AND NOT MIX OUT UNTIL LATE MORNING.                  
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IFR OR MVFR CIGS AT THIS             
TIME. THE THIRD PROBLEM IS LLWS...WHICH BOTH TAF SITES SHOULD                   
EXPERIENCE TONIGHT BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING MIXES IT OUT AND CAUSES               
WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 10 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                      
10 AM UPDATE...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK FAVORABLE FOR GALE FORCE             
WINDS ON EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.                     
THEREFORE HAVE WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED THE GALE WARNING FOR                       
LSZ266-267. DROPPED THE GALE WATCH FOR 264 AS RIGHT NOW CONDITIONS              
DO NOT APPEAR AS FAVORABLE...THOUGH STILL MENTIONED A FEW GALE FORCE            
GUSTS.                                                                          
AS THE HIGH CENTER MOVES EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AND LOW PRESSURE                
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO FOLLOWS...THERE WILL BE A STRENGTHENING OF              
SOUTHERLY FLOW. FREQUENT 35KT GUSTS MAY OCCUR ON CENTRAL AND EASTERN            
LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL               
MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING                
CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT NORTH AND NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. AS HIGH                 
PRESSURE OVER MANITOBA NOSES SOUTHEASTWARD OVER ONTARIO LATE                    
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KTS. AS THE            
RIDGE SHIFTS INTO QUEBEC ON MONDAY AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS             
THE ROCKIES...THERE WILL BE A STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AGAIN.           
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 12 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ266-267.                    
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...ROLFSON                                                   
AVIATION...AJ                                                                   
MARINE...DLG/AJ                                                                 
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1035 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2008                                                     
UPDATED MARINE AND WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SECTIONS FOR GALE WARNING.            
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A BROAD RIDGE CENTERED                
OVER FAR WRN NAMERICA WITH A BROAD TROF OVER THE CNTRL/E...ANCHORED             
BY THE POLAR VORTEX CENTERED OVER NRN HUDSON BAY. AS A RESULT...NW              
FLOW IS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. NEXT                     
SHORTWAVES OF REAL INTEREST ARE OVER THE SE YUKON AND THE WRN NW                
TERRITORIES. THESE SHORTWAVES WILL DIVE SE INTO THE CNTRL/ERN                   
NAMERICA TROF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CLOSER TO HOME...SFC                
HIGH PRES WAS CENTERED JUST NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING.             
STRATOCU HAS DEVELOPED NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE NIGHT AS                   
AIRMASS IS JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. IN ADDITION...              
PATCHY FOG/STRATUS HAS ALSO BEEN FORMING IN THE INTERIOR. AS                    
RESULT...TEMPS HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING WIDELY AND VARY QUITE A BIT                
ACROSS THE FCST AREA. A NUMBER OF OBS SITES ACROSS THE INTERIOR                 
CNTRL AND ERN FCST AREA HAVE STILL MANAGED TO FALL INTO THE 30S AS              
OF 08Z WITH SPINCICH LAKE THE COLDEST AT 32F. TO THE W...WAA REGIME             
ON BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH IS SUPPORTING MID CLOUDS OVER NE ND/NRN MN              
WITH RADARS SHOWING SOME NARROW BANDS OF RETURNS AND POSSIBLE                   
-SHRA/SPRINKLES.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WITH A NUMBER OF OBS SITES SHOWING TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS            
THE FROST ADVY AREA...WILL LET FROST ADVY RUN THRU EXPIRATION TIME              
OF 12Z. OTHERWISE...RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP TODAY AS HIGH PRES SLIPS            
TO THE ESE. WARMING WILL BE MOST APPARENT OVER THE W WHERE 850MB                
TEMPS CLIMB TO 10-12C BY 18Z (STILL 5-6C OUT E). MIXING TO 850MB                
YIELDS HIGH TEMPS IN THE LWR 70S W TO MID 60S E WHICH IS INLINE WITH            
AVBL 00Z MOS GUIDANCE. AS FOR CLOUD COVER...PATCHY FOG/STRATUS WILL             
QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE AND STRATOCU NEAR THE LAKE SHOULD               
ALSO DISSIPATE OR AT LEAST MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE MORNING AS                  
AIRMASS WARMS AND WINDS IN THE CLOUD LAYER BACK SRLY. STRONGEST WAA             
CURRENTLY FOCUSED TO THE W AND NW OF UPPER MI SURGES NE DURING THE              
DAY TODAY. AS A RESULT...MID CLOUDS BEING PRODUCED BY THE                       
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD ALSO SHIFT MOSTLY TO THE NE. A FEW                 
DISSIPATING REMNANTS PEELING SE WILL PROBABLY BE THE ONLY CLOUD                 
COVER HERE TODAY ONCE MORNING CLOUDS DEPART. SO...A GENERALLY MOSTLY            
SUNNY DAY IS ANTICIPATED.                                                       
TONIGHT AND FRI...PAIR OF SHORTWAVES CURRENTLY OVER NW CANADA WILL              
HEAD SE THEN E ACROSS SRN CANADA. ASSOCIATED STRENGTHENING SFC LOW              
OVER SASKATCHEWAN THIS EVENING WILL MOVE E...REACHING SRN HUDSON BAY            
FRI AFTN. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL DRAW UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR              
INTO THE UPPER LAKES REGION TONIGHT/FRI. WITH STRENGTHENING                     
LOW-LEVEL JET...ALWAYS NEED TO CONSIDER THE POTENTIAL OF ELEVATED               
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...WITH NOSE OF LOW-LEVEL JET/STRONGEST FLOW                 
PASSING TO THE N OF UPPER MI TONIGHT...POTENTIAL OF CONVECTION HERE             
STILL LOOKS MINIMAL. NAM FCST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A SMALL WINDOW WHERE            
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND THE TOP OF THE INVERSION TO                 
PROVIDE CAPE OF SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG FOR PARCELS LIFTED FROM ABOVE              
THE SFC BASED INVERSION. GFS FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW SIMILAR                        
MOISTENING...BUT WITH CAPE ONLY A LITTLE LESS THAN THE NAM. SO...A              
LITTLE CONCERNED THAT ISOLD SHRA/TSRA COULD DEVELOP...BUT SINCE                 
LOW-LEVEL JET IS FOCUSED N OF THE FCST AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE             
WITH A DRY FCST OVER ALL BUT NRN LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. INCREASING              
SW WINDS TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN MIN TEMPS CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN              
THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE W AND N WHERE WINDS WILL BE                
LEAST DECOUPLED. GFS/ETA MOS OF AROUND 60F FOR A MIN TEMP AT KIWD               
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. MID/UPPER 50S SHOULD BE COMMON ELSEWHERE FROM             
THE W INTO THE NCNTRL NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. READINGS SHOULD TREND DOWN            
TO AROUND 50F SCNTRL AND E WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER.                         
AS SFC LOW PRES HEADS FOR SRN HUDSON BAY FRI...ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT            
WILL DROP SE TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WILL PROVIDE NEARLY AN IDEAL            
SETUP FOR WARMTH AS AXIS OF 850MB THERMAL RIDGE ALMOST REACHES UPPER            
MI EARLY FRI AFTN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH SW WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS             
RISING TO AROUND 14C...TEMPS SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE RISING WELL INTO            
THE MID AND UPPER 70S OVER THE W AND CNTRL...WARMEST IN THE                     
DOWNSLOPE AREAS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW 80F READINGS.              
FLOW WILL BE BACKED ENOUGH OFF LAKE MICHIGAN FOR LWR TEMPS (UPPER               
60S/LWR 70S) DOWNWIND INTO THE FAR ERN FCST AREA. WINDS IN THE MIXED            
LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT GUSTS IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE IN MANY LOCATIONS             
FRI. AS FOR PCPN CHC...AIRMASS WILL PROBABLY BE CAPPED FRI...                   
ESPECIALLY SINCE MODELS MAY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES TOO HIGH ON SFC              
DWPTS. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO MAINTAIN THE              
INHERITED FCST OF JUST 20 POPS OVER THE WRN PORTION OF THE FCST                 
AREA...CLOSER TO APPROACHING COLD FRONT.                                        
COLD FRONT WILL DROP S THRU THE FCST AREA FRI NIGHT. WITH LOSS OF               
DAYTIME HEATING AND ONLY WEAK DEEP LAYER FORCING...THERE IS NO NEED             
TO GO ANY HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHC POPS WITH FROPA. WILL CARRY SLIGHT             
CHC POPS INTO EARLY SAT MORNING OVER THE FAR SCNTRL FCST AREA.                  
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRES WILL BEGIN TO BUILD SE TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT             
LAKES...PROVIDING A DRY/COOLER DAY SAT. TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE             
LWR 60S N TO UPPER 60S S.                                                       
EXPECT DRY WX TO CONTINUE SUN/MON AS MID-LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE NRN               
PLAINS BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA. LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPS TO REBOUND                
INTO THE UPPER 60S/LWR 70S FOR MON.                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
IR SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOWING LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM KCMX            
TO KSAW. KSAW REPORTING PERIODS OF LIFR CONDITIONS. BY 14Z                      
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD            
WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. LIGHT WINDS                  
BECOMING SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF UPPER              
MICHIGAN. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING HIGH              
AND THE LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA ABOVE DEVELOPING                   
RADIATION INVERSION WILL RESULT IN LLWS AT BOTH SITES AFT 00Z FRIDAY.           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 10 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                      
10 AM UPDATE...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK FAVORABLE FOR GALE FORCE             
WINDS ON EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.                     
THEREFORE HAVE WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED THE GALE WARNING FOR                       
LSZ266-267. DROPPED THE GALE WATCH FOR 264 AS RIGHT NOW CONDITIONS              
DO NOT APPEAR AS FAVORABLE...THOUGH STILL MENTIONED A FEW GALE FORCE            
GUSTS.                                                                          
AS THE HIGH CENTER MOVES EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AND LOW PRESSURE                
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO FOLLOWS...THERE WILL BE A STRENGTHENING OF              
SOUTHERLY FLOW. FREQUENT 35KT GUSTS MAY OCCUR ON CENTRAL AND EASTERN            
LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL               
MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING                
CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT NORTH AND NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. AS HIGH                 
PRESSURE OVER MANITOBA NOSES SOUTHEASTWARD OVER ONTARIO LATE                    
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KTS. AS THE            
RIDGE SHIFTS INTO QUEBEC ON MONDAY AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS             
THE ROCKIES...THERE WILL BE A STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AGAIN.           
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 12 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ266-267.                    
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...ROLFSON                                                   
AVIATION...KC                                                                   
MARINE...DLG/AJ                                                                 
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
731 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A BROAD RIDGE CENTERED                
OVER FAR WRN NAMERICA WITH A BROAD TROF OVER THE CNTRL/E...ANCHORED             
BY THE POLAR VORTEX CENTERED OVER NRN HUDSON BAY. AS A RESULT...NW              
FLOW IS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. NEXT                     
SHORTWAVES OF REAL INTEREST ARE OVER THE SE YUKON AND THE WRN NW                
TERRITORIES. THESE SHORTWAVES WILL DIVE SE INTO THE CNTRL/ERN                   
NAMERICA TROF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CLOSER TO HOME...SFC                
HIGH PRES WAS CENTERED JUST NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING.             
STRATOCU HAS DEVELOPED NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE NIGHT AS                   
AIRMASS IS JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. IN ADDITION...              
PATCHY FOG/STRATUS HAS ALSO BEEN FORMING IN THE INTERIOR. AS                    
RESULT...TEMPS HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING WIDELY AND VARY QUITE A BIT                
ACROSS THE FCST AREA. A NUMBER OF OBS SITES ACROSS THE INTERIOR                 
CNTRL AND ERN FCST AREA HAVE STILL MANAGED TO FALL INTO THE 30S AS              
OF 08Z WITH SPINCICH LAKE THE COLDEST AT 32F. TO THE W...WAA REGIME             
ON BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH IS SUPPORTING MID CLOUDS OVER NE ND/NRN MN              
WITH RADARS SHOWING SOME NARROW BANDS OF RETURNS AND POSSIBLE                   
-SHRA/SPRINKLES.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WITH A NUMBER OF OBS SITES SHOWING TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS            
THE FROST ADVY AREA...WILL LET FROST ADVY RUN THRU EXPIRATION TIME              
OF 12Z. OTHERWISE...RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP TODAY AS HIGH PRES SLIPS            
TO THE ESE. WARMING WILL BE MOST APPARENT OVER THE W WHERE 850MB                
TEMPS CLIMB TO 10-12C BY 18Z (STILL 5-6C OUT E). MIXING TO 850MB                
YIELDS HIGH TEMPS IN THE LWR 70S W TO MID 60S E WHICH IS INLINE WITH            
AVBL 00Z MOS GUIDANCE. AS FOR CLOUD COVER...PATCHY FOG/STRATUS WILL             
QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE AND STRATOCU NEAR THE LAKE SHOULD               
ALSO DISSIPATE OR AT LEAST MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE MORNING AS                  
AIRMASS WARMS AND WINDS IN THE CLOUD LAYER BACK SRLY. STRONGEST WAA             
CURRENTLY FOCUSED TO THE W AND NW OF UPPER MI SURGES NE DURING THE              
DAY TODAY. AS A RESULT...MID CLOUDS BEING PRODUCED BY THE                       
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD ALSO SHIFT MOSTLY TO THE NE. A FEW                 
DISSIPATING REMNANTS PEELING SE WILL PROBABLY BE THE ONLY CLOUD                 
COVER HERE TODAY ONCE MORNING CLOUDS DEPART. SO...A GENERALLY MOSTLY            
SUNNY DAY IS ANTICIPATED.                                                       
TONIGHT AND FRI...PAIR OF SHORTWAVES CURRENTLY OVER NW CANADA WILL              
HEAD SE THEN E ACROSS SRN CANADA. ASSOCIATED STRENGTHENING SFC LOW              
OVER SASKATCHEWAN THIS EVENING WILL MOVE E...REACHING SRN HUDSON BAY            
FRI AFTN. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL DRAW UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR              
INTO THE UPPER LAKES REGION TONIGHT/FRI. WITH STRENGTHENING                     
LOW-LEVEL JET...ALWAYS NEED TO CONSIDER THE POTENTIAL OF ELEVATED               
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...WITH NOSE OF LOW-LEVEL JET/STRONGEST FLOW                 
PASSING TO THE N OF UPPER MI TONIGHT...POTENTIAL OF CONVECTION HERE             
STILL LOOKS MINIMAL. NAM FCST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A SMALL WINDOW WHERE            
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND THE TOP OF THE INVERSION TO                 
PROVIDE CAPE OF SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG FOR PARCELS LIFTED FROM ABOVE              
THE SFC BASED INVERSION. GFS FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW SIMILAR                        
MOISTENING...BUT WITH CAPE ONLY A LITTLE LESS THAN THE NAM. SO...A              
LITTLE CONCERNED THAT ISOLD SHRA/TSRA COULD DEVELOP...BUT SINCE                 
LOW-LEVEL JET IS FOCUSED N OF THE FCST AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE             
WITH A DRY FCST OVER ALL BUT NRN LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. INCREASING              
SW WINDS TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN MIN TEMPS CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN              
THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE W AND N WHERE WINDS WILL BE                
LEAST DECOUPLED. GFS/ETA MOS OF AROUND 60F FOR A MIN TEMP AT KIWD               
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. MID/UPPER 50S SHOULD BE COMMON ELSEWHERE FROM             
THE W INTO THE NCNTRL NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. READINGS SHOULD TREND DOWN            
TO AROUND 50F SCNTRL AND E WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER.                         
AS SFC LOW PRES HEADS FOR SRN HUDSON BAY FRI...ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT            
WILL DROP SE TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WILL PROVIDE NEARLY AN IDEAL            
SETUP FOR WARMTH AS AXIS OF 850MB THERMAL RIDGE ALMOST REACHES UPPER            
MI EARLY FRI AFTN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH SW WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS             
RISING TO AROUND 14C...TEMPS SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE RISING WELL INTO            
THE MID AND UPPER 70S OVER THE W AND CNTRL...WARMEST IN THE                     
DOWNSLOPE AREAS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW 80F READINGS.              
FLOW WILL BE BACKED ENOUGH OFF LAKE MICHIGAN FOR LWR TEMPS (UPPER               
60S/LWR 70S) DOWNWIND INTO THE FAR ERN FCST AREA. WINDS IN THE MIXED            
LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT GUSTS IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE IN MANY LOCATIONS             
FRI. AS FOR PCPN CHC...AIRMASS WILL PROBABLY BE CAPPED FRI...                   
ESPECIALLY SINCE MODELS MAY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES TOO HIGH ON SFC              
DWPTS. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO MAINTAIN THE              
INHERITED FCST OF JUST 20 POPS OVER THE WRN PORTION OF THE FCST                 
AREA...CLOSER TO APPROACHING COLD FRONT.                                        
COLD FRONT WILL DROP S THRU THE FCST AREA FRI NIGHT. WITH LOSS OF               
DAYTIME HEATING AND ONLY WEAK DEEP LAYER FORCING...THERE IS NO NEED             
TO GO ANY HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHC POPS WITH FROPA. WILL CARRY SLIGHT             
CHC POPS INTO EARLY SAT MORNING OVER THE FAR SCNTRL FCST AREA.                  
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRES WILL BEGIN TO BUILD SE TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT             
LAKES...PROVIDING A DRY/COOLER DAY SAT. TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE             
LWR 60S N TO UPPER 60S S.                                                       
EXPECT DRY WX TO CONTINUE SUN/MON AS MID-LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE NRN               
PLAINS BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA. LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPS TO REBOUND                
INTO THE UPPER 60S/LWR 70S FOR MON.                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
IR SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOWING LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM KCMX            
TO KSAW. KSAW REPORTING PERIODS OF LIFR CONDITIONS. BY 14Z                      
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD            
WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. LIGHT WINDS                  
BECOMING SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF UPPER              
MICHIGAN. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING HIGH              
AND THE LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA ABOVE DEVELOPING                   
RADIATION INVERSION WILL RESULT IN LLWS AT BOTH SITES AFT 00Z FRIDAY.           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
AS THE HIGH CENTER MOVES EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AND LOW PRESSURE                
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO FOLLOWS...THERE WILL BE A STRENGTHENING OF              
SOUTHERLY FLOW. FREQUENT 35KT GUSTS MAY OCCUR ON CENTRAL AND EASTERN            
LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL             
MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING                
CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT NORTH AND NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. AS HIGH                 
PRESSURE OVER MANITOBA NOSES SOUTHEASTWARD OVER ONTARIO LATE                    
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KTS. AS THE            
RIDGE SHIFTS INTO QUEBEC ON MONDAY AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS             
THE ROCKIES...THERE WILL BE A STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AGAIN.           
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...FROST ADVY MIZ004>007-010-011-013-014-085 UNTIL                
                 8AM EDT THIS MORNING.                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...GALE WATCH LSZ264-266-267 LATE TONIGHT THRU                     
                FRI MORNING.                                                    
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...ROLFSON                                                   
AVIATION...KC                                                                   
MARINE...DLG                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
833 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
UPDATE TO FORECAST WILL MAINLY BE TO UPDATE WORDING FOR THE                     
OVERNIGHT PERIOD... WITH MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.                 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEASTWARD... WITH                  
CONVECTION DISSIPATING AS DAYTIME INSTABILITY FADES. SOME ELEVATED              
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA                 
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS... ALTHOUGH THERE APPEARS TO BE VERY                
LIMITED FORCING TO GET ANY ELEVATED ACTIVITY GOING. HOWEVER...                  
WITH THE NAM... RUC... AND LOCAL LAPSWRF KEEPING SOME NEARLY                    
SATURATED RH IN THE 850-700MB LAYER THROUGH 12Z IT WOULD BE TOUGH               
TO RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA. THE BETTER FORCING... OWING TO               
FRONTOGENESIS AND THE ACTUAL 1000-850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE... IS                   
FARTHER NORTH NEAR WHERE THE STRONGER CONVECTION IN NORTHEAST                   
MINNESOTA WAS EARLIER IN THE EVENING. THIS DOES DROP                            
SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT... ALTHOUGH IT WEAKENS AND WITH THE                     
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZING... DO NOT BELIEVE IT WILL BE ABLE TO                 
KICK OFF ANY FURTHER ACTIVITY. KMPX 00Z RAOB SUGGESTED BEST                     
POTENTIAL FOR ANY ELEVATED PARCEL WILL BE FROM AROUND 800MB...                  
WITH THE POTENTIAL OF 400-800 J/KG CAPE... SO IF SOMETHING CAN BE               
KICKED OFF THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDER. SO... WILL                 
MAINTAIN THE VERY LOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST               
FOR THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.                  
UPDATES TO CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE MINOR... AND WILL               
SIMPLY REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../00Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
/ISSUED 534 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008/                                             
VFR CONDS WL PREVAIL THRU THE VALID TAF PD. LEFT A VCSH DURG THE                
FIRST FEW HRS OF THE TAF AT MSP AND RNH WITH RESIDUAL AFTN SHRA                 
REMAINING NEAR THOSE SITES. WINDS WL SHIFT TO A NERLY DIRN BEHIND               
THE CDFNTL PASSAGE LATE TNGT...WITH SPDS REMAINING BLO 10 KTS DURG              
THE AFTN TMRW.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008/                                          
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG WITH SOME WEAK POSITIVE VORTICITY                   
ADVECTION WAS AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF THE FRONT            
ACRS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MN INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN. THE LATEST IR              
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A MINOR IMPLUSE OVR CNTRL MN...THIS WAVE               
WAS ASLO HELPING WITH THE INITATION AND MAINTENANCE OF THE PRECIP.              
THE IMPLUSE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACRS NORTHERN WI THIS EVENING.             
WL KEEP SOME SMALL POPS GOING OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE              
THIS EVENING.                                                                   
ELSEWHERE...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR NORTH OF THE FRONTAL                    
BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT...WHILE SOME PATCHY CLOUDS OR BROKEN LAYER OCCURS            
JUST SOUTH OF IT.                                                               
SATURDAY...WEAK FRONT STALLED OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE                    
STATE...WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AS WARM FRONT LATE IN THE DAY.  WL             
GO ALONG WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST...A LEAVE SOME SMALL POPS IN                    
VICINITY OF THE FRONT.                                                          
MEDIUM RANGE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN             
INTO THE NEXT WEEK. LONGWAVE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD AND MOVE             
EAST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SHOULD KEEP              
MOST AREAS DRY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.                              
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN SHIFTS TO MORE                      
SOUTHWESTERLY AIRFLOW OVER THE MIDWEST WITH PRECIP CHANCES                      
INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY INTO                 
TUESDAY. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH FINALLY LIFTS EAST THROUGH OUR CWA               
WEDNESDAY.                                                                      
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...LTL CHANGE TO THE HPC GUIDANCE AND LEFT SOME POPS            
TOWARD END OF NEW WORK WEEK. SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO CARVE OUT             
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...SATURDAY...LOOKS QUESTIONABLE...BY THE                 
LATEST GFS90 MODEL. FAST ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN TIER U.S.                 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS SLOW.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TRH/KAT/JVM                                                                     
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
819 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...THE STORMS HAVE FINALLY STARTED TO SHOW SOME SIGN OF                  
BREAKING UP AND HAVE WEAKENED SOMEWHAT AS OF 815 PM. THIS IS ABOUT              
ON TRACK WITH THE CURRENT THINKING OF STORMS DIMINISHING BETWEEN                
01Z AND 0130Z...AND DISSIPATING BETWEEN 02Z AND 03Z. THE STORMS                 
SEEM TO HAVE BEEN KICKED OFF IN AN AREA OF DRY MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR              
PER WATER VAPOR...WITH FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND                      
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE/LAPSE RATES. ALSO HELPED ALONG BY FAVORABLE               
EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH SUNSET...THE STORMS              
SHOULD DIMINISH NICELY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE                              
EVENING...ALTHOUGH WILL STILL CARRY ISOLATED MENTION THROUGH                    
MIDNIGHT. OTHER THAN THAT...ZONES/GRIDS APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE              
AND WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THEM FOR THE OVERNIGHT.                
EXPECT TO SEND ZFP AND UPDATED GRIDS BETWEEN 830 AND 9 PM. WE                   
WOULD GREATLY APPRECIATE CALLING ANY REPORTS INTO THE NWS THIS                  
EVENING.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 734 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008/                         
MESOSCALE UPDATE...THE SEVERE STORM ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY                 
HAD MAINTAINED ITSELF NICELY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. WITHIN THE                
PAST 15 MINUTES OR SO...IT STARTED TO EXHIBIT SOME SIGNS OF                     
DEVELOPING A HOOK ECHO...AND WE HAVE ISSUED A TORNADO WARNING.                  
OVER THE PAST FEW MINUTES...THE STORM HAD STARTED TO UNDERGO A                  
TRANSFORMATION YET AGAIN. THE STORM WAS MOVING THROUGH A SPARSELY               
POPULATED AREA...AND WE HAVE NOT HAD ANY REPORTS AS OF YET. STILL               
LOOKING LIKE A CHANCE OF SEVERE THROUGH 01Z...OR PERHAPS 0130Z...AND            
THEN DIMINISHING. MESOANALYSIS INDICATES SOME TORNADO                           
POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH THINK LCL LEVELS MAY BE A BIT HIGH. IF ANYONE              
HAS REPORTS IN THIS AREA...PLEASE RELAY THEM TO US AT THE NWS.                  
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008/                          
MESOSCALE UPDATE...THE STORM NEAR BASSWOOD LAKE HAD STRENGTHENED                
CONSIDERABLY AS OF 640 PM...WITH MAX DBZ OF AROUND 70 DBZ.                      
DEFINITELY NOT BAD FOR MID/LATE SEPTEMBER. FOR THE DAY...50 DBZ                 
AROUND 25-28K SHOULD BE SEVERE...BUT THIS PARTICULAR STORM HAD A                
50 DBZ HEIGHT OF AROUND 35K FEET. THE RUC PICKED UP ON THIS STORM               
ABSOLUTELY PHENOMENALLY...ALBEIT A BIT FURTHER WEST. THE RUC KEEPS              
THIS STUFF AROUND THROUGH AROUND 01Z...AND THEN TRIES TO DISSIPATE              
THE STORMS FROM 02-03Z. THIS THINKING SOUNDS GOOD WITH SUNSET                   
APPROACHING. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY YET DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND                 
WEST OF THIS AREA...ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SO WILL KEEP A                 
CLOSE EYE FOR NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT GIVEN SOME TCU DEVELOPMENT.                 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008/                          
UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED ZONES/GRIDS TO ADD ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS                 
THE ENTIRE REGION WITH FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. ONE              
SUCH STORM DEVELOPED NORTHWEST OF BASSWOOD LAKE...AND WAS MOVING                
E/SE. WILL MONITOR THIS STORM IN THE EVENT IT STRENGTHENS FURTHER               
WHEN IT ENTERS INTO NRN LAKE/NW COOK COUNTIES. RIGHT NOW MOST OF                
THE ENERGY WAS NORTH OF THE BORDER...BUT WILL SOON MOVE INTO THE                
CWA. STRONG WIND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COULD IGNITE A FEW                 
MORE STORMS ALONG THE FRONT THIS EVENING. MESOANALYSIS PAGE OF SPC              
INDICATES MUCAPE OF AROUND 2000 J/KG WITH LITTLE INHIBITION. STEEP              
LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE FRONT COULD LEAD TO                  
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IF THE STORMS ARE ABLE TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES.               
FIRST THOUGHTS ARE THAT THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW STORMS               
TO BECOME SEVERE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT WILL DIMINISH                    
RAPIDLY AS SUNSET APPROACHES. SUPERCELL COMPOSITE PARAMETER OF                  
BETWEEN 4 AND 8 OFF THE SPC WEBSITE...SO WILL BE TAKING THE THREAT              
VERY SERIOUSLY THIS EVENING.                                                    
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...LATEST KDLH RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF SCATTERED                
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN               
AND PINE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH                
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIGGING SE ACROSS THE AREA...PRECEDING                 
THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS JUST ENTERING THE NW CORNER OF OUR CWA.                 
THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY THIS                 
EVENING...AND END BY MIDNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST              
ACROSS OUR FCST AREA TONIGHT...EXITING TO THE SOUTH OF THE                      
NORTHLAND LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL THEN BUILD               
SOUTH OVER THE CWA TOMORROW...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRY              
CONDITIONS.                                                                     
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OF OUR CWA ON                  
SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL               
IN TURN INITIATE WAA ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AS MOISTURE AND                  
TEMPS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...THE AIRMASS WILL DESTABILIZE                   
SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PROPAGATE ACROSS                
OUR CWA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...TAPPING THIS INCREASING                     
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...AND BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS                
AND STORMS TO OUR FCST AREA.                                                    
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP 10 TO 20 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND               
BETWEEN TODAY TO TOMORROW. AS WINDS TURN OUT OF THE                             
NORTHEAST...THE COOLER TEMPS WILL ESPECIALLY BE NOTICEABLE ALONG                
THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE.                                                    
AVIATION...ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA WILL AFFECT MAINLY KDLH AND KHYR                   
THROUGH 21-23Z TIME FRAME AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE              
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH NE MN             
THIS EVENING AND NW WI OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW               
AFTER FROPA. BY 12Z SATURDAY...THE WIND WILL SWING AROUND TO THE NE             
AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA BUILDS INTO THE AREA.                              
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  50  58  44  62 /  20  10  10  20                                           
INL  42  58  39  68 /  20  10  10  20                                           
BRD  50  68  48  73 /  20  10  10  10                                           
HYR  50  66  41  69 /  20  10  10  20                                           
ASX  51  59  43  65 /  20  10  10  20                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
DAP                                                                             
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
734 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008                                                      
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...THE SEVERE STORM ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY                
HAD MAINTAINED ITSELF NICELY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. WITHIN THE                
PAST 15 MINUTES OR SO...IT STARTED TO EXHIBIT SOME SIGNS OF                     
DEVELOPING A HOOK ECHO...AND WE HAVE ISSUED A TORNADO WARNING.                  
OVER THE PAST FEW MINUTES...THE STORM HAD STARTED TO UNDERGO A                  
TRANSFORMATION YET AGAIN. THE STORM WAS MOVING THROUGH A SPARSELY               
POPULATED AREA...AND WE HAVE NOT HAD ANY REPORTS AS OF YET. STILL               
LOOKING LIKE A CHANCE OF SEVERE THROUGH 01Z...OR PERHAPS 0130Z...AND            
THEN DIMINISHING. MESOANALYSIS INDICATES SOME TORNADO                           
POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH THINK LCL LEVELS MAY BE A BIT HIGH. IF ANYONE              
HAS REPORTS IN THIS AREA...PLEASE RELAY THEM TO US AT THE NWS.                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008/                         
MESOSCALE UPDATE...THE STORM NEAR BASSWOOD LAKE HAD STRENGTHENED                
CONSIDERABLY AS OF 640 PM...WITH MAX DBZ OF AROUND 70 DBZ.                      
DEFINITELY NOT BAD FOR MID/LATE SEPTEMBER. FOR THE DAY...50 DBZ                 
AROUND 25-28K SHOULD BE SEVERE...BUT THIS PARTICULAR STORM HAD A                
50 DBZ HEIGHT OF AROUND 35K FEET. THE RUC PICKED UP ON THIS STORM               
ABSOLUTELY PHENOMENALLY...ALBEIT A BIT FURTHER WEST. THE RUC KEEPS              
THIS STUFF AROUND THROUGH AROUND 01Z...AND THEN TRIES TO DISSIPATE              
THE STORMS FROM 02-03Z. THIS THINKING SOUNDS GOOD WITH SUNSET                   
APPROACHING. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY YET DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND                 
WEST OF THIS AREA...ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SO WILL KEEP A                 
CLOSE EYE FOR NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT GIVEN SOME TCU DEVELOPMENT.                 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008/                          
UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED ZONES/GRIDS TO ADD ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS                 
THE ENTIRE REGION WITH FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. ONE              
SUCH STORM DEVELOPED NORTHWEST OF BASSWOOD LAKE...AND WAS MOVING                
E/SE. WILL MONITOR THIS STORM IN THE EVENT IT STRENGTHENS FURTHER               
WHEN IT ENTERS INTO NRN LAKE/NW COOK COUNTIES. RIGHT NOW MOST OF                
THE ENERGY WAS NORTH OF THE BORDER...BUT WILL SOON MOVE INTO THE                
CWA. STRONG WIND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COULD IGNITE A FEW                 
MORE STORMS ALONG THE FRONT THIS EVENING. MESOANALYSIS PAGE OF SPC              
INDICATES MUCAPE OF AROUND 2000 J/KG WITH LITTLE INHIBITION. STEEP              
LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE FRONT COULD LEAD TO                  
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IF THE STORMS ARE ABLE TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES.               
FIRST THOUGHTS ARE THAT THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW STORMS               
TO BECOME SEVERE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT WILL DIMINISH                    
RAPIDLY AS SUNSET APPROACHES. SUPERCELL COMPOSITE PARAMETER OF                  
BETWEEN 4 AND 8 OFF THE SPC WEBSITE...SO WILL BE TAKING THE THREAT              
VERY SERIOUSLY THIS EVENING.                                                    
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...LATEST KDLH RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF SCATTERED                
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN               
AND PINE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH                
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIGGING SE ACROSS THE AREA...PRECEDING                 
THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS JUST ENTERING THE NW CORNER OF OUR CWA.                 
THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY THIS                 
EVENING...AND END BY MIDNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST              
ACROSS OUR FCST AREA TONIGHT...EXITING TO THE SOUTH OF THE                      
NORTHLAND LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL THEN BUILD               
SOUTH OVER THE CWA TOMORROW...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRY              
CONDITIONS.                                                                     
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OF OUR CWA ON                  
SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL               
IN TURN INITIATE WAA ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AS MOISTURE AND                  
TEMPS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...THE AIRMASS WILL DESTABILIZE                   
SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PROPAGATE ACROSS                
OUR CWA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...TAPPING THIS INCREASING                     
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...AND BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS                
AND STORMS TO OUR FCST AREA.                                                    
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP 10 TO 20 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND               
BETWEEN TODAY TO TOMORROW. AS WINDS TURN OUT OF THE                             
NORTHEAST...THE COOLER TEMPS WILL ESPECIALLY BE NOTICEABLE ALONG                
THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE.                                                    
AVIATION...ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA WILL AFFECT MAINLY KDLH AND KHYR                   
THROUGH 21-23Z TIME FRAME AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE              
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH NE MN             
THIS EVENING AND NW WI OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW               
AFTER FROPA. BY 12Z SATURDAY...THE WIND WILL SWING AROUND TO THE NE             
AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA BUILDS INTO THE AREA.                              
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  50  58  44  62 /  20  10  10  20                                           
INL  42  58  39  68 /  20  10  10  20                                           
BRD  50  68  48  73 /  20  10  10  10                                           
HYR  50  66  41  69 /  20  10  10  20                                           
ASX  51  59  43  65 /  20  10  10  20                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
DAP                                                                             
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
648 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008                                                      
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...THE STORM NEAR BASSWOOD LAKE HAD STRENGTHENED               
CONSIDERABLY AS OF 640 PM...WITH MAX DBZ OF AROUND 70 DBZ.                      
DEFINITELY NOT BAD FOR MID/LATE SEPTEMBER. FOR THE DAY...50 DBZ                 
AROUND 25-28K SHOULD BE SEVERE...BUT THIS PARTICULAR STORM HAD A                
50 DBZ HEIGHT OF AROUND 35K FEET. THE RUC PICKED UP ON THIS STORM               
ABSOLUTELY PHENOMENALLY...ALBEIT A BIT FURTHER WEST. THE RUC KEEPS              
THIS STUFF AROUND THROUGH AROUND 01Z...AND THEN TRIES TO DISSIPATE              
THE STORMS FROM 02-03Z. THIS THINKING SOUNDS GOOD WITH SUNSET                   
APPROACHING. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY YET DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND                 
WEST OF THIS AREA...ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SO WILL KEEP A                 
CLOSE EYE FOR NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT GIVEN SOME TCU DEVELOPMENT.                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008/                         
UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED ZONES/GRIDS TO ADD ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS                 
THE ENTIRE REGION WITH FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. ONE              
SUCH STORM DEVELOPED NORTHWEST OF BASSWOOD LAKE...AND WAS MOVING                
E/SE. WILL MONITOR THIS STORM IN THE EVENT IT STRENGTHENS FURTHER               
WHEN IT ENTERS INTO NRN LAKE/NW COOK COUNTIES. RIGHT NOW MOST OF                
THE ENERGY WAS NORTH OF THE BORDER...BUT WILL SOON MOVE INTO THE                
CWA. STRONG WIND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COULD IGNITE A FEW                 
MORE STORMS ALONG THE FRONT THIS EVENING. MESOANALYSIS PAGE OF SPC              
INDICATES MUCAPE OF AROUND 2000 J/KG WITH LITTLE INHIBITION. STEEP              
LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE FRONT COULD LEAD TO                  
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IF THE STORMS ARE ABLE TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES.               
FIRST THOUGHTS ARE THAT THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW STORMS               
TO BECOME SEVERE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT WILL DIMINISH                    
RAPIDLY AS SUNSET APPROACHES. SUPERCELL COMPOSITE PARAMETER OF                  
BETWEEN 4 AND 8 OFF THE SPC WEBSITE...SO WILL BE TAKING THE THREAT              
VERY SERIOUSLY THIS EVENING.                                                    
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...LATEST KDLH RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF SCATTERED                
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN               
AND PINE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH                
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIGGING SE ACROSS THE AREA...PRECEDING                 
THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS JUST ENTERING THE NW CORNER OF OUR CWA.                 
THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY THIS                 
EVENING...AND END BY MIDNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST              
ACROSS OUR FCST AREA TONIGHT...EXITING TO THE SOUTH OF THE                      
NORTHLAND LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL THEN BUILD               
SOUTH OVER THE CWA TOMORROW...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRY              
CONDITIONS.                                                                     
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OF OUR CWA ON                  
SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL               
IN TURN INITIATE WAA ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AS MOISTURE AND                  
TEMPS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...THE AIRMASS WILL DESTABILIZE                   
SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PROPAGATE ACROSS                
OUR CWA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...TAPPING THIS INCREASING                     
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...AND BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS                
AND STORMS TO OUR FCST AREA.                                                    
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP 10 TO 20 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND               
BETWEEN TODAY TO TOMORROW. AS WINDS TURN OUT OF THE                             
NORTHEAST...THE COOLER TEMPS WILL ESPECIALLY BE NOTICEABLE ALONG                
THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE.                                                    
AVIATION...ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA WILL AFFECT MAINLY KDLH AND KHYR                   
THROUGH 21-23Z TIME FRAME AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE              
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH NE MN             
THIS EVENING AND NW WI OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW               
AFTER FROPA. BY 12Z SATURDAY...THE WIND WILL SWING AROUND TO THE NE             
AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA BUILDS INTO THE AREA.                              
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  78  50  58  44 /  30  20  10  10                                           
INL  80  42  58  39 /  20  20  10  10                                           
BRD  82  50  68  48 /  40  20  10  10                                           
HYR  79  50  66  41 /  30  20  10  10                                           
ASX  80  51  59  43 /  30  20  10  10                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
DAP                                                                             
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
316 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MOD TO STRONG SSW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE LOW              
PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. DECENT DIFFERENTIAL TEMP              
ADVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO WEST CENTRAL MN                
LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING BUT HIGHER K INDICES DO NOT WORK                
INTO CENTRAL MN UNTIL FRIDAY. SOME ELEVATED CAPE SHOWING UP IN                  
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS. UPPER AIR SUPPORT ON THE WEAK SIDE THOUGH.              
WILL HOWEVER INTRODUCE A SMALL POP ON FRIDAY IN NORTH CWA AS                    
BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT COINCIDES WITH HIGHER K                     
INDICES. SREF POPS MAXIMIZE IN THIS AREA AS WELL. WILL ALSO KEEP                
THE SMALL POP OVER WEST CENTRAL WI FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT                    
TRAILS OFF. NEGATIVE FACTOR WILL BE AN INITIAL CAP. SHOULD BE A                 
WARM DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND 80S COMMON MOST LOCATIONS. CAN`T                
RULE OUT A COUPLE UPPER 80S KCNB...KDXX AREA...SIMILAR TO TUESDAY.              
THE BOUNDARY WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTH AGAIN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY              
NIGHT. THERE IS SOME RISK OF PRECIP BUT THE TEMP GRADIENT WILL                  
DEVELOP MORE OVER NORTHEAST MN. WILL LEAVE OUT AT THIS TIME BU                  
THE BEST CHANCE WOULD BE OVER CENTRAL MN.                                       
NEXT BEST PRECIP CHANCES STILL APPEAR TO BE MID WEEK. BEST                      
INCREASE IN GFS ENSEMBLE POPS IS ON WED. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN                
THE SPEED AND INTENSITY OF THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE WEST AS RIDGE                
BUILDS IN THE EAST...ALONG WITH A SPLIT POTENTIAL TO OUR SOUTH.                 
WILL KEEP SOME POPS IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BUT                 
LESSER CHANCES ON THURSDAY.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS                
AFTN AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES               
HAVE ALLOWED FOR FULL MIXING TO ESTABLISH ITSELF. GOING SUSTAINED               
WINDS AND GUSTS IN TAF LOOK GOOD FOR THIS AFTN GIVEN OBSERVATIONAL              
TRENDS AND RUC PREDICTIONS OF MIXING HEIGHTS. WOOD LAKE PROFILER                
SHOWING 40 KTS AT 1-2 KFT...SO GUSTS OF 75 TO 80 PERCENT OF THAT                
/OR NEAR 30 KTS/ ARE EXPECTED AT AXN AND RWF. MPX VAD PROFILER                  
REVEALS LESS SPEEDS...BUT STILL 20-25 KTS AT 2-4 KFT...WELL WITHIN              
THE MIXING LAYER. SOME REGENERATING 6-8 KFT CLOUDS EXPECTED ON                  
GRADUALLY MOISTENING WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THAT LAYER. SFC WINDS                
TO LOSE THEIR GUSTS TONIGHT WHILE SUSTAINED STAY UP IN THE 10-14                
KT CATEGORY. WEAK SFC TROUGH TO MOVE INTO WRN MN JUST PRIOR TO                  
DAYBREAK TOMORROW. SOME SCT LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG OR BEHIND THIS                  
SEEM POSSIBLE WITH MARGINAL LAPSE RATES AND ASSOCIATED ELEVATED                 
INSTABILITY ENOUGH TO KEEP THEM ALIVE AS THEY HEAD EAST FROM                    
ND/SD. HAVE A PROB GROUP AT AXN TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CONFIDENCE.                 
SEEMS LIKE A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER JUST BEYOND TAF                          
PERIOD...FRI AFTN AND EVE...ACROSS OTHER TAF SITES DUE TO THIS                  
TROUGH PASSAGE. MAY NOT BE WORTH MENTION THOUGH AT 00Z.                         
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JPR/MTF                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
1000 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CIRCULATION                
AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI WITH A SHORT WAVE                   
LIFTING NORTH INTO TENNESSEE FROM NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THIS                   
SHORTWAVE HELPED MAINTAIN AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER THIS                 
EVENING OVER OUR NORTHEAST ZONES. IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE DRIER            
AIR AND WEAK SUBSIDENCE MOVED INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF                 
OUR CWA. THIS HAS ERODED CLOUD COVER OVER OUR DELTA REGION. MODELS              
CONTINUE TO SHOW REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER MUCH              
OF THE AREA. LOCAL RADARS ALSO SHOW SOME LIGHT SHOWERS REDEVELOPING             
OVER SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI MOVING NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL                        
MISSISSIPPI. EXPECT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED IN OUR NORTHWEST               
BUT CONTINUE GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE. HAVE                
UPDATED FORECAST TO REDUCE POPS IN THE WEST. DEW POINTS ARE RUNNING             
HIGHER AGAIN TONIGHT THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. MORNING LOWS WERE                  
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN EXPECTED THIS MORNING. WITH CLOUDS AND              
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING OVERNIGHT HAVE RAISED FORECAST MIN TEMPS                
SEVERAL DEGREES IN THE NORTH. UPDATES HAVE BEEN POSTED. /22/                    
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO            
WANE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A             
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST AREAS. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE            
AND BACK A BIT MORE SELY AS THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH EDGES SLIGHTLY WWD             
AND WEAKENS IN THE WAKE OF THE INITIAL UPPER WAVE TODAY. MID LEVEL              
TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MAINTAIN ENOUGH                 
GENERAL LIFT AND MOISTURE TO CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTION...PROVIDING A             
COOL POOL ALOFT OVER HEALTHY 850 MB THETAE AIR.                                 
MODELS ARE PULLING BACK ON THE EXTENT OF ADVECTION OF DRIER AND                 
COOLER AIR FROM THE EAST THIS WEEKEND...GENERALLY CONFINING IT TO               
JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW AND DELAYING WEAK DRY AIR               
ADVECTION UNTIL SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP WEEKEND LOWS CLOSER TO                   
NORMAL. SPEAKING OF NORMAL...THE DAILY NORMALS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE             
COOL NOTICEABLY THIS MONTH AS WE MOVE INTO FALL. AS AN EXAMPLE, THE             
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR JACKSON FOR SEPTEMBER 1ST WAS 90 DEGREES            
WHILE THE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR TODAY IS 86. THE DAILY NORMAL             
HIGH FOR JACKSON BY THE LAST DAY OF THIS MONTH WILL FALL TO 82                  
DEGREES.                                                                        
.LONG TERM...CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN THE MED RANGE/LONG TERM                   
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS THERE IS MORE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH            
THE MODELS AND GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS AND THE ENSEMBLES.             
THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS SUN NIGHT AND THIS WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD               
WHERE POPS WILL TREND LOWER. GUID VALUES WERE GOOD FOR THIS PERIOD              
WITH JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCE VALUES ACROSS THE SE HALF. EXPECT LOWS             
IN THE LOWER 60S...MAYBE A BIT WARMER IF CLOUDS CAN REMAIN THICK.               
BY MON...OUR S/W WILL BE PUSHING EAST AND RIDGING WILL DEVELOP. MID             
LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE THIS PERIOD WITH MID LEVEL TEMPS               
WARMING SEVERAL DEGREES. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AND I WILL             
ONLY CARRY SOME ISO SHRA CHANCES ACROSS THE EAST PORTION OF THE CWA             
AS GUID IS OFFERING THOSE VALUES...PLUS I DON`T WANT TO TOTALLY                 
REMOVE PRECIP CHANCES TOO QUICKLY IN CASE THE S/W IS A TAD SLOWER.              
FOR MON NIGHT THROUGH FRI...RIDGING ALOFT WILL TAKE OVER AND IN THE             
LOW LEVELS WE WILL SEE A BACKDOOR FRONT PUSH IN DRIER AND SLIGHTLY              
COOLER AIR. AT THIS TIME...THINGS DON`T LOOK TO BE MUCH                         
COOLER...JUST A REINFORCING SHOT OF DRIER AIR THAT WILL LIKELY ALLOW            
LOWS TO GET COOLER FOR THE TUE-FRI PERIOD. THE EURO AND GFS                     
ENSEMBLES SHOW THIS AND I HAVE LOWER LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES FOR THOSE             
PERIODS. AS FOR HIGHS...GUID VALUES LOOKED RIGHT ON AND HAVE                    
FOLLOWED. EXPECT NORMAL HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 85 ALL WEEK.  /CME/              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...UPDATED...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN VCTY OF GTR WILL                
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z. DRIER AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE NORTHWEST             
AND WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES THERE BUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE                    
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. MUCH            
OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z. AFTER 06Z             
MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THESE                   
CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH 14Z BEFORE IMPROVING. SCATTERED                    
COVERAGE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN               
THE MIX FOR THE AFTERNOON. /22/                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       64  81  61  80 /  52  55  35  42                                  
MERIDIAN      62  80  61  81 /  43  44  37  42                                  
VICKSBURG     64  82  62  82 /  43  47  30  39                                  
HATTIESBURG   65  81  64  83 /  50  64  37  45                                  
NATCHEZ       65  81  64  82 /  32  56  32  43                                  
GREENVILLE    61  83  61  83 /  26  38  22  30                                  
GREENWOOD     62  81  62  81 /  35  44  26  31                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
03/CME/7                                                                        
</pre> ms                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE                                        
328 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY IS POPS. AT 07Z ISOLATED               
CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA                  
WAS DISSIPATING AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LAID OUT HAS DROPPED SOUTHEAST              
ACROSS WESTERN CHERRY COUNTY. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT                   
TOWARD GREATER POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TODAY THEN AS                  
ENERGY MOVES DOWNSTREAM FROM BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST                
CONUS THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAINFALL LATE SUNDAY                    
THROUGH TUESDAY.                                                                
TODAY THE CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST WITH              
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND GOOD SURFACE HEATING. STEEPENING LAPSE                   
RATES WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE                    
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST. THE RUC13 PLACES THE SURFACE TROUGH TO               
EXTEND SOUTHWEST FROM NEAR FAR...ABR...TO NEAR CYS THIS MORNING                 
THAT WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE                
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LAID                 
OUT ACROSS CHERRY COUNTY AS SOUTH WINDS DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD                 
TODAY. SOUNDING PROFILES SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE BELOW 10KFT FOR                  
MAINLY HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO BE SEEN AGAIN TODAY. IN                      
ADDITION...MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST                   
WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM TO MOVE SLOWLY AND BE WITHIN CLOSE                 
PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE TROUGH AS IT DROPS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST                    
DURING THE EVENING. AFTER 9 PM ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM                    
SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE WITH THE PRIMARY CONCERN TO BE WIND                   
GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM. TEMPERATURES              
WILL AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE 80S TODAY...THEN OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE              
UPPER 40S WEST TO MID 50S NORTH CENTRAL.                                        
SATURDAY THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS EAST TO THE HIGH PLAINS AS A               
STRONGER SYSTEM ENTERS THE NORTHEAST COAST. INCREASED SUBSIDENCE                
ALOFT WILL TEND TO INHIBIT STORM DEVELOPMENT UNTIL GOING INTO                   
SUNDAY AS ENERGY EJECTS NORTHEAST TO BRING A CHANCE FOR                         
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST THEN EXTEND                      
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS DURING THE                   
PERIOD WITH THE H85 WINDS TO 45 KNOTS TO DEEPEN MOISTURE THROUGH                
THE DAY FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS                  
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON COULD BE                  
IMPACTED AS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EJECTING SEVERAL                  
DISTURBANCES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT INTO                   
MONDAY MORNING. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL ALSO IMPACT TEMPERATURES                    
SUNDAY WITH READINGS AROUND 80 FOR THE DAY.                                     
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL TRANSITION TO               
THE EAST WHILE BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE WEST WILL LEAD TO GOOD                
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ON THE PLAINS. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVERAGE AND               
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WHEN A               
STRONGER DISTURBANCE TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHWEST TO KICK THE                   
FRONTAL SYSTEM EAST BY WEDNESDAY. THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD TEMPERATURES      
WILL RANGE FORM DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE                 
50S THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN AS DRIER AIR SPREADS SOUTHEAST TEMPERATURES           
BEYOND WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S               
AND LOWS IN THE 40S.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE KLBF TAF IS SUBJECT TO                   
AMENDMENT FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THROUGH 13Z THIS MORNING. A                  
STALLED OUT COLD FRONT WILL MEANDER ACROSS NWRN NEB TODAY. ISOLATED             
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST NEB                
BETWEEN 21Z-03Z TODAY.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KECK/CDC                                                                        
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM                                         
859 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED TO KEEP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE                  
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RUC             
80 ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDED IN THE BACK SIDE OF              
THE UPPER RIDGE. IT IS DIFFICULT TO RULE OUT AN ISOLATED                        
THUNDERSTORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE TONIGHT...AS THIS SHORTWAVE SLOWLY             
SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO ADJUSTED THE WIND             
FORECAST A BIT IN CENTRAL AREAS...TO MATCH RESENT WEATHER                       
OBSERVATIONS. 44                                                                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
251 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2008...FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY                                  
ACROSS THE STATE AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION COMBINES               
WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT PROVIDED BY A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. FOR            
THE MOST PART THE STORMS HAVE BEEN BEHAVING THEMSELVES BUT I WOULD              
NOT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER               
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE.                                                  
GIVEN THE EVOLVING WEATHER PATTERN AND APPROACHING SYNOPTIC SCALE               
TROUGH...I WOULD EXPECT THE FOCUS OF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO                 
SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD TOMORROW...WITH A CONTINUED EMPHASIS ON                 
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE NEXT INFLUENTIAL WEATHER                    
SYSTEM WILL BE THE TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS                  
SYSTEM WILL SERVE TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA AND USHER IN               
SOME DRIER AIR LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.                      
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE STATE ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE LIMITED              
TO THE NORTHERN THIRD WITH AN OVERALL DECREASE IN SHOWERS AND                   
THUNDERSTORMS COMPARED TO SATURDAY. ADDITIONALLY...SOUTHWEST                    
BREEZES SHOULD KICK IN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON                    
HOURS. BREEZES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE HIGH                
PRESSURE THEN GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK IN DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION                
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND AND MOSTLY BENIGN              
WEATHER ON TAP.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DISSIPATE THRU 04Z...WITH MVFR                    
CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE STRONGER STORMS. THE MAIN                 
THREAT FROM STORMS WILL BE GUSTY OUTLFOW WINDS. EXPECTD MID LEVEL               
CLOUDS TO STICK AROUND IN THE E PLAINS OVERNIGHT WHILE MOST AREAS               
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP             
IN THE VALLEYS OF THE NORTHERN MTNS OVERNIGHT WITH IFR/MVFR POSSIBLE            
THRU 13Z. ISOLD GUSTY STORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN SATURDAY ESPECIALLY             
OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS.                                                 
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z. GUYER                               
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THRU EARLY EVENING WILL PRODUCE MAINLY             
GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF WETTING RAINS...AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING               
STRIKES. WIDESPREAD VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT RH RECOVERIES ARE LIKELY             
AGAIN OVERNIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A FEW MORE STORMS WILL                
DEVELOP SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SANGRES. MIN RH VALUES WILL              
RANGE FROM THE TEENS IN THE WEST TO AROUND 30 IN THE EAST. THE WEAK             
RIDGE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE AREA WILL BREAK DOWN THRU MONDAY              
AS A BROAD TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WEST COAST. SURFACE WINDS WILL               
BECOME BREEZY ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA IN REPONSE TO                
1005MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPING OVER SE COLORADO AHEAD OF THE             
WEST COAST TROUGH. MIN RH VALUES FALL TO AROUND 20 PCT AREAWIDE IN              
THIS PATTERN WITH RECOVERIES TRENDING INTO THE 50-60 PCT RANGE. THE             
AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES THE STATE ON TUESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY              
COOLER TEMPS AND AFTERNOON BREEZES. ANOTHER RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING               
OVER THE STATE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH GENERALLY LIGHTER WINDS AND ISOLD            
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS.                                                   
GUYER                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
44                                                                              
</pre> nm                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM                                         
929 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE SURVIVED PAST SUNSET IN RIGHT                  
REAR QUAD OF JET AND NEAREST EXITING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. MOST OF                 
THIS WILL DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT BUT SOME COULD PERSIST                          
LATER...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST CLOSEST TO DYNAMICS AS PER 00Z NAM.              
MADE ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS...KD                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...254 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2008...                                
SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER            
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE...IN RESPONSE TO MODEST            
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND A 50-60 KNOT 400-250MB JET. RUC13/NAM12              
SHORT-TERM ANALYSIS SHOWS STORMS WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING            
BY 03Z LEAVING BEHIND SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS THRU TONIGHT. FRIDAY           
WILL BE LESS ACTIVE THAN TODAY OVERALL AS THE BEST UPPER DYNAMICS MOVE          
EAST OF THE AREA. THE SANGRES/NE PLAINS STILL STAND THE BEST CHANCE             
OF PRECIP FRIDAY AS THE REAR QUADRANT OF TODAYS JET LINGERS OVER THE            
NE PLAINS.                                                                      
AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY POSITIONED OFF THE CENTRAL CA COASTLINE GRAZES           
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY ISOLD               
SHOWERS/STORMS AND SOME AFTERNOON BREEZES. ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS           
THE SOUTHWEST CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER MORE BROAD              
TROUGH ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BY MIDWEEK. MAX/MIN            
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO THRU THE ENTIRE PERIOD.                         
GUYER                                                                           
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS MOST AREAS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL NM THE NEXT 24               
HOURS AND BEYOND. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER AND TO THE SOUTHEAST               
OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE ISOLATED TO WIDELY                  
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE SOME LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS...                
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO                   
PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOWS WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH. LOOK FOR                
CONVECTION TO END BY O3Z...HOWEVER...SOME LOCAL AREAS OF VALLEY                 
FOG ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT...BETWEEN              
06Z AND 12Z. WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING OVER THE FORECAST                  
AREA ON FRIDAY...FEWER AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...WITH              
ISOLATED HIGH BASED STORMS LIMITED TO THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHERN              
AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO AFTER 18Z AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING                  
MOST AREAS.                                                                     
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z. 05                                  
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY PRODUCE GUSTY            
SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY OVER AND TO THE               
EAST OF HIGH TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN           
AREAS WILL BE EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT...WITH GOOD TO VERY GOOD RECOVERIES           
ELSEWHERE. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY             
WITH A REDUCTION IN THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING. STILL...EXPECT ISOLATED            
HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN                
AND NORTHERN NM. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WITH DRYING ACROSS              
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE AND STORMS LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN                
MOUNTAINS. AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE ROCKIES SUNDAY              
PRODUCING AN INCREASE IN WINDS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MAINLY                    
ACROSS THE NORTH AND HIGHER TERRAIN. AT THIS TIME CONDITIONS ARE                
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.                                   
05                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS UPDATE...                                         
FARMINGTON......................  46  80  48  81 /   5   5   5   5              
GALLUP..........................  39  78  39  80 /   5   5   5   5              
GRANTS..........................  41  79  41  81 /   5   5   5   5              
GLENWOOD........................  46  80  47  83 /   5   5   5   0              
CHAMA...........................  35  72  38  74 /   5  10  10  10              
LOS ALAMOS......................  46  73  47  72 /  10   5  10  10              
RED RIVER.......................  32  68  35  69 /  10  20  20  20              
TAOS............................  41  75  42  73 /  10  10  10  10              
SANTA FE........................  47  75  47  74 /  10  10  20   5              
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  46  77  46  76 /  10   5  10   5              
ESPANOLA........................  42  80  44  79 /  10   0  10   0              
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  55  79  56  79 /  10   0   5   5              
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  46  81  51  81 /  10   0   5   0              
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  52  77  50  78 /  10   5  10   5              
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  48  81  51  81 /  10   0   5   5              
SOCORRO.........................  48  83  51  83 /  10   0  10   5              
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  40  73  42  72 /  10   5  10  10              
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  40  77  48  77 /  10   5  10  10              
CARRIZOZO.......................  47  78  50  80 /   5   0  10   0              
RUIDOSO.........................  40  72  43  71 /   5   5  20  10              
RATON...........................  43  77  43  75 /  10  10  10  10              
LAS VEGAS.......................  46  71  44  73 /  10  20  20  10              
ROY.............................  48  75  48  76 /  10  10  10   5              
CLAYTON.........................  51  79  52  79 /  10  10  10   5              
SANTA ROSA......................  53  81  52  82 /  10   5  10   0              
TUCUMCARI.......................  54  83  54  84 /  10   5  10   5              
FORT SUMNER.....................  49  82  50  83 /   5   5  10   5              
CLOVIS..........................  51  80  53  80 /   5   5   5   0              
PORTALES........................  51  81  52  81 /   0   0   5   0              
ROSWELL.........................  51  83  55  85 /   0   0   5   0              
&&                                                                              
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
19                                                                              
</pre> nm                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM                                         
254 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER            
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE...IN RESPONSE TO MODEST            
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND A 50-60 KNOT 400-250MB JET. RUC13/NAM12              
SHORT-TERM ANALYSIS SHOWS STORMS WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING            
BY 03Z LEAVING BEHIND SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS THRU TONIGHT. FRIDAY           
WILL BE LESS ACTIVE THAN TODAY OVERALL AS THE BEST UPPER DYNAMICS MOVE          
EAST OF THE AREA. THE SANGRES/NE PLAINS STILL STAND THE BEST CHANCE             
OF PRECIP FRIDAY AS THE REAR QUADRANT OF TODAYS JET LINGERS OVER THE            
NE PLAINS.                                                                      
AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY POSITIONED OFF THE CENTRAL CA COASTLINE GRAZES           
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY ISOLD               
SHOWERS/STORMS AND SOME AFTERNOON BREEZES. ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS           
THE SOUTHWEST CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER MORE BROAD              
TROUGH ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BY MIDWEEK. MAX/MIN            
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO THRU THE ENTIRE PERIOD.                         
GUYER                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS MOST AREAS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL NM THE NEXT 24               
HOURS AND BEYOND. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER AND TO THE SOUTHEAST               
OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE ISOLATED TO WIDELY                  
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE SOME LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS...                
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO                   
PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOWS WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH. LOOK FOR                
CONVECTION TO END BY O3Z...HOWEVER...SOME LOCAL AREAS OF VALLEY                 
FOG ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT...BETWEEN              
06Z AND 12Z. WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING OVER THE FORECAST                  
AREA ON FRIDAY...FEWER AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...WITH              
ISOLATED HIGH BASED STORMS LIMITED TO THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHERN              
AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO AFTER 18Z AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING                  
MOST AREAS.                                                                     
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z. 05                                  
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY PRODUCE GUSTY            
SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY OVER AND TO THE               
EAST OF HIGH TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN           
AREAS WILL BE EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT...WITH GOOD TO VERY GOOD RECOVERIES           
ELSEWHERE. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY             
WITH A REDUCTION IN THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING. STILL...EXPECT ISOLATED            
HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN                
AND NORTHERN NM. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WITH DRYING ACROSS              
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE AND STORMS LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN                
MOUNTAINS. AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE ROCKIES SUNDAY              
PRODUCING AN INCREASE IN WINDS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MAINLY                    
ACROSS THE NORTH AND HIGHER TERRAIN. AT THIS TIME CONDITIONS ARE                
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.                                   
05                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
FARMINGTON......................  47  80  48  81 /  10   5   5   5              
GALLUP..........................  39  78  39  80 /  10   5   5   5              
GRANTS..........................  43  79  41  81 /  10   5   5   5              
GLENWOOD........................  46  80  47  83 /  10   5   5   0              
CHAMA...........................  35  72  38  74 /  10  10  10  10              
LOS ALAMOS......................  46  73  47  72 /  10   5  10  10              
RED RIVER.......................  32  68  35  69 /  20  20  20  20              
TAOS............................  41  75  42  73 /  10  10  10  10              
SANTA FE........................  47  75  47  74 /  20  10  20   5              
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  46  77  46  76 /  10   5  10   5              
ESPANOLA........................  42  80  44  79 /  10   0  10   0              
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  55  79  56  79 /  10   0   5   5              
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  48  81  51  81 /  10   0   5   0              
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  52  77  50  78 /  20   5  10   5              
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  50  81  51  81 /  10   0   5   5              
SOCORRO.........................  48  83  51  83 /  10   0  10   5              
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  40  73  42  72 /  20   5  10  10              
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  44  77  48  77 /  20   5  10  10              
CARRIZOZO.......................  48  78  50  80 /  10   0  10   0              
RUIDOSO.........................  43  72  43  71 /  10   5  20  10              
RATON...........................  43  77  43  75 /  10  10  10  10              
LAS VEGAS.......................  46  71  44  73 /  20  20  20  10              
ROY.............................  48  75  48  76 /  20  10  10   5              
CLAYTON.........................  51  79  52  79 /  10  10  10   5              
SANTA ROSA......................  53  81  52  82 /  20   5  10   0              
TUCUMCARI.......................  54  83  54  84 /  10   5  10   5              
FORT SUMNER.....................  49  82  50  83 /  10   5  10   5              
CLOVIS..........................  51  80  53  80 /   0   5   5   0              
PORTALES........................  51  81  52  81 /   0   0   5   0              
ROSWELL.........................  51  83  55  85 /   0   0   5   0              
&&                                                                              
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GUYER/05                                                                        
</pre> nm                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM                                         
929 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
A 50 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET SLIDING SE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY..                  
COMBINED WITH MODEST LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL ALLOW NW FLOW                
PATTERN STORMS TO FIRE ALONG THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. RAISED POPS                 
TO SCATTERED ALONG AND TO THE LEE OF THE SANGRES PER LATEST RUC13               
AND 12Z NAM GUIDANCE. STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY ACROSS THE                
REGION AFTER SUNSET.                                                            
GUYER                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...300 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2008...                                
CURRENTLY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO              
EMBEDDED IN BROADLY ZONAL FLOW. CLOCKSPRING CLOSED LOW ALOFT OFF                
THE COLUMBIA RIVER ESTUARY WILL HELP PUMP UP ADVANCE RIDGE OVER                 
NEW MEXICO HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. SURFACE CHARTS PAINTING RIDGE              
OVER EASTERN END OF THE STATE WITH WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CENTERED                 
OVER LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...BROADLY SETTING UP SOUTHERLY                 
FLOW ACROSS THE STATE.                                                          
MODELS...GOOD CONSENSUS MOVING CLOSED LOW INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA              
ON FRIDAY...AND SHEARING IT RAPIDLY EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN                  
PLAINS BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. PATH WILL KEEP MOST ALL SERIOUS                  
ENERGY NORTH OF NEW MEXICO AS ZONAL FLOW RETURNS ACROSS THE STATE               
BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. NEXT TROUGH AMPLIFYING ALONG THE WEST                   
COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL SWING TO THE FOUR CORNERS MONDAY                    
AFTERNOON AND DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE               
UPCOMING WORK WEEK.                                                             
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH                   
SURFACE TROUGH BUDGING EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO WILL                    
MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY WITH             
TEMPERATURES WORKING A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. MOSTLY               
ISOLATED CONVECTION ON THE DAY...WITH FAVORED TOPOGRAPHY MAINLY IN              
THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...AND THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. PWATS EASING              
UP TOWARD A HALF INCH WITH VERY MODEST INSTABILITY ON THE DAY MAY               
BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST                 
HIGHLANDS TO WIND UP THE EVENING.                                               
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT IN                     
ADVANCE OF NORTHEAST PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL KEEP SKIES BROADLY CLEAR               
ON FRIDAY...AND HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO                   
ABOVE NORMAL IN BROAD SOUTH FLOW. EXPECTING FURTHER REDUCTIONS IN               
ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...WITH FAVORED TERRAIN                
IN THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN HIGHLANDS A GOOD BET FOR                
SPOTTY THUNDERSTORM INITIATION.                                                 
INTO SATURDAY...RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA ACROSS                
NEW MEXICO TO WESTERN KANSAS WITH SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENING ALONG                
THE ARIZONA BORDER WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY FLOW STATEWIDE...AND                 
ANOTHER DAY OF SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND                     
CONVECTION ALONG FAVORED PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IS ON               
TAP. ENERGY FROM SHEARING WEATHER SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL MAKE                 
THE CLOSEST SCRAPE OF NORTHERN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY EVENING...AND                
THIS MAY PROLONG ANY INITIATED CONVECTION LATE IN THE DAY.                      
INTO SUNDAY...RIDGE TOP SHEARING RAPIDLY EASTWARD AS MORE                       
ENERGETIC ZONAL FLOW SETS IN ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF AMPLIFYING TROUGH              
DOWN THE WEST COAST. SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHING OVER THE                  
STATE WILL BROADEN ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE DAY OVER THE                  
USUAL SPOTS...THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL                
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TEMPERATURE REGIME TO WIND UP              
THE WORK WEEK.                                                                  
SHY                                                                             
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS AGAIN PREVAILING ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL NM THE NEXT            
24 HOURS AND BEYOND. BUT AFTERNOON AND EVENING HIGH BASED ISOLATED              
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST               
HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE TODAY WITH THE NORTHERN AND WEST                
CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN FAVORED SOMEWHAT. A FEW MAY MANAGE TO SURVIVE            
LONG ENOUGH TO DRIFT OVER THE NORTHEAST AND POSSIBLY EAST CENTRAL               
PLAINS. WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 40 KNOTS ARE LIKELY NEAR THE MORE             
SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND STORMS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP              
AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON FIRST OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH A FEW SURVIVING            
INTO THE PLAINS.                                                                
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 21Z. 43                                  
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
ISOLATED VIRGA SHOWERS AND MAINLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON              
AND EVENING WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH JUST A FEW SURVIVING             
LONG ENOUGH TO DRIFT OVER THE NORTHEAST AND POSSIBLY EAST CENTRAL               
PLAINS. AFTERNOON AND EVENING ISOLATED VIRGA SHOWERS AND MOSTLY DRY             
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES             
BELOW 20 OR 25 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS AND FAIR TO GOOD OR VERY GOOD              
NIGHTTIME RECOVERIES. UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKIES SUNDAY MAY              
DROP THE WESTERLIES SOUTH FAR ENOUGH TO INCREASE WINDS SOMEWHAT                 
SUNDAY THROUGH TUE OR SO OVER THE NORTH AND HIGHER TERRAIN...THOUGH             
GENERALLY BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.                                            
43                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS UPDATE...                                         
FARMINGTON......................  82  51  83  51 /   5   0   5   5              
GALLUP..........................  77  43  78  43 /  10  10   5   5              
GRANTS..........................  78  42  79  43 /  10  10   5   5              
GLENWOOD........................  82  55  84  51 /  20  20   5   5              
CHAMA...........................  71  36  72  35 /  10   5   5   5              
LOS ALAMOS......................  73  46  75  45 /  20  20   5   5              
RED RIVER.......................  66  33  67  31 /  30  10  10   5              
TAOS............................  74  39  75  39 /  20  10   5   5              
SANTA FE........................  75  47  77  48 /  10   5   5   5              
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  78  48  79  48 /  10  10   5   0              
ESPANOLA........................  81  44  82  44 /  10  10   5   5              
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  81  56  82  55 /   5   5   0   0              
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  82  49  82  50 /   5   5   0   0              
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  78  53  78  52 /   5   5   0   0              
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  80  55  81  55 /   5   5   0   0              
SOCORRO.........................  81  49  83  51 /   5   5   0   0              
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  72  41  73  42 /  10   5   0   5              
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  77  43  78  44 /   5   5   5   0              
CARRIZOZO.......................  79  47  80  49 /   0   0   5   0              
RUIDOSO.........................  71  42  72  43 /   5   0   5   0              
RATON...........................  78  42  78  42 /  20  20  10   5              
LAS VEGAS.......................  75  44  75  43 /  30  20  10   5              
ROY.............................  75  49  77  50 /  20  20  10   5              
CLAYTON.........................  80  50  79  51 /  10  10   5   5              
SANTA ROSA......................  83  50  83  49 /  10  20   5   0              
TUCUMCARI.......................  84  52  83  54 /  10  10   0   0              
FORT SUMNER.....................  83  51  83  52 /   5  10   0   0              
CLOVIS..........................  80  52  81  53 /   5   0   0   0              
PORTALES........................  81  51  82  54 /   5   0   0   0              
ROSWELL.........................  84  54  85  55 /   0   0   0   0              
&&                                                                              
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GUYER                                                                           
</pre> nm                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
153 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WILL RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS                
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND BRING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE            
REGION. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND MOVE JUST            
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN              
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAINLY ALONG THE COASTAL                 
COUNTIES.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
AS OF 9 AM FRIDAY...BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ARE THE               
RESULT OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH CENTERED OVER MAINE AND            
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL OFF THE COAST.  ANOTHER RAIN FREE DAY OVER              
LAND IS FORECAST AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE LIMITED. MORNING                   
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW AN INVERSION AROUND 825 MB FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE           
RIDGE. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY THE 12 UTC RUC WHICH SHOWS AROUND 90                
PERCENT OF THE AREA BEING STABLE. THE ONLY AREA THAT SHOWS ANY                  
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON BEING EASTERN BRUNSWICK AND NEW HANOVER              
COUNTY. WITH THE CAP AT 825 MB DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION OVER             
THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON JUST SOME CONVECTIVE ROLES.                            
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...                                  
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...STILL EXPECTING A COOL AND RELATIVELY DRY                   
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED TO THE NORTH AND AN OLD FRONT AND             
LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYERS. THE GFS HAS                  
TRENDED A LITTLE DRIER WITH THE QPF...WHICH WASNT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE             
IN THE FIRST PLACE AS THE SHIELD HAS JOGGED TO THE EAST. THE FLOW               
HAS BACKED TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION AS WELL PROBABLY DUE TO A              
WEAK CLOSED CIRCULATION DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF STREAM. ALL OF THIS            
SAID...HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK EVER SO SLIGHTLY TO REPRESENT THIS                
TREND...MAINLY CONFINING THEM TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH THE                  
EXCEPTION OF LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING WHEN A FEW SPRINKLES             
COULD MIGRATE INLAND.                                                           
SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR             
THE PERIOD WITH THE MET NUMBERS A CATEGORY COOLER IN SOME INSTANCES.            
A FEW WEEKS AGO DURING THE HEAT OF THE SUMMER THE SOLUTION WOULD BE             
SIMPLE...GO WITH THE MET. WITH THE FALL QUICKLY APPROACHING AND THE             
FACT THE MAV NUMBERS HAVE BEEN BETTER AT LEAST DURING THE INITIAL               
STAGES OF THIS AIR MASS THE SOLUTION IS A BIT MORE COMPLEX. WILL                
UNDERCUT THE MAV NUMBERS A DEGREE OR TWO AS THE MET NUMBERS JUST                
SEEM TOO COOL.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                         
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POSSIBLE           
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS               
OF THE EXTENDED OR MORE SPECIFICALLY THE LATTER HALF OF THE                     
EXTENDED...FROM WEDNESDAY ON. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL GFS HAS                    
SHIFTED THE LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE ENSEMBLE                    
MEMBERS SEEM TO HAVE SOMETHING FOR EVERYONE...WITH LOW PRESSURE                 
FROM THE BAHAMAS ALL THE WAY TO THE NORTH JUST EAST OF HATTERAS.                
OBVIOUSLY THERE IS STILL NOTHING TO HANG OUR HATS ON AND I SUSPECT              
IT WILL REMAIN SO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. I TRIMMED BACK POPS AND                
CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY TO REPRESENT A TREND IF NOTHING ELSE BUT                   
CONFIDENCE IN LOWER THAN USUAL IN THE EXTENDED.                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                       
AVIATION PROBLEMS WILL BE WITH GUSTING WINDS AT THE COASTAL TAFS                
WITH GUST EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 25 KNOTS TONIGHT . ALSO...MODELS             
ARE INDICATING LIFR/IFR STRATUS ALONG THE COAST AFTER 09 UTC. BUFR              
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING STRATUS LAYER A BIT HIGHER IN THE MVFR RANGE              
AT THE SAME TIME. SO HAVE FAVORED BUFR SOUNDINGS OVER THE NUMERICAL             
GUIDANCE.                                                                       
OUTLOOK THROUGH MONDAY...WITH TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND MODELS                 
STILL NOT HONING IN ON A SIMILAR SOLUTION THERE CONTINUES TO BE                 
HIGHER THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL                  
DRIVEN BY THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS THAT              
TRANSVERSE THE OFFSHORE BOUNDARY AND THE DISTANCE TO THE TAFS SITES.            
THE INLAND TAF SITES WILL GENERALLY BE VFR WHILE COASTAL SITES HAVE             
A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILING.                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                  
AS OF NOON FRIDAY...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTING FROM HIGH               
PRESSURE OVER MAINE AND AN OLD FRONT OFF THE COAST IS PRODUCING                 
STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS. AT NOON FRYING PAN WAS REPORTING NORTHEAST              
WINDS OF 27 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 8.5 FEET. CLOSE TO THE COAST SEAS 4 TO            
5 FEET WERE BEING OBSERVED. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUE                   
THROUGH TONIGHT SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN HIGH AND SMALL CRAFT                 
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.                                         
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...                                   
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH              
THE PERIOD. THE DILEMMA IS WHAT WILL BE THE MAGNITUDE OF THE FLOW AS            
THE NAM/WRF IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE GRADIENT DUE TO THE CLOSED LOW            
OVER THE GULF STREAM BEING DEEPER. THERE IS A GOOD 10 TO 12 KNOTS               
DIFFERENCE IN THE MARINE GUIDANCE FOR 41013 WHEN COMPARING THE NAM              
AND MAV BULLETINS. I LIKE THE GFS BUT CANT DISREGARD THE NAM                    
COMPLETELY AND WILL INCREASE THE GFS WINDS ANS SEAS A BIT ACROSS THE            
BOARD. WITH THIS IN MIND...EXPECT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE            
SATURDAY AND WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE DAY WITH SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE.            
COULD BE A SIMILAR SITUATION SUNDAY AS THE NAM CONTINUES WITH THE               
ROBUST SOLUTION. FOR NOW HAVE WINDS AND SEAS DROPPING BELOW FLAG                
CRITERIA BUT SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY.             
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                           
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD...MOST LIKELY             
BELOW FLAG CRITERIA. NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED COASTAL WATERS                  
FORECAST THIS MORNING.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SC...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252-           
     254-256.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...SHK                                                                  
NEAR TERM...HAWKINS                                                             
SHORT TERM...SHK                                                                
LONG TERM...SHK                                                                 
AVIATION...HAWKINS                                                              
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH                                           
117 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH               
THE MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION                   
TODAY AND THEN MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE FRIDAY.                      
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE               
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND THE WINDS ARE                
NORTHEAST. BY 12Z THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL               
RANGE FROM 11C WEST TO 13C EXTREME NORTHEAST. WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW             
IT WILL TRY TO DRY OUT FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE MODELS GENERALLY                 
AGREE ON THAT AND THE NORTHWEST AREAS WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME CLOUDS            
ALL DAY I.E. PARTLY CLOUDY. A FEW SPRINKLES ACCOMPANIED THE FRONT               
AS IT MOVED THROUGH OVERNIGHT. THE RUC TRIES TO INDICATE A FEW                  
HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN AROUND 12Z NEAR CLE...THE OTHER MODELS ARE DRY.              
IT IS POSSIBLE FOR A SPRINKLE BUT WITH THE VORT JUST ABOUT OUT OF               
THE AREA BY 12Z WILL KEEP IT DRY. NO MOIST ENOUGH OR COLD ENOUGH                
FOR WATERSPOUTS ON THE LAKE.                                                    
TEMPERATURE WISE THE GUIDANCE IS ALL ABOUT THE SAME AND THEY MATCH              
LOCAL SCHEMES..WENT CLOSER TO THE MOS MAV. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WAS               
OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE GFS             
IS MUCH COOLER THAN THE MET WHILE THE NAM MOS IS IN BETWEEN. BASED              
ON THE WINDS AND CLOUDS WENT CLOSER TO THE MOS MAV BUT A FEW DEGREES            
WARMER.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...                         
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH THE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST. THE QUESTION IS             
HOW COLD WILL IT GET. THIS MODEL RUN IS A LITTLE WARMER THAN THE 12Z            
RUN AND IT IS MUCH WARMER THAN THE 00Z RUN (24 HOURS AGO). AT THIS              
TIME IT DOESN`T SEEM LIKE THE DEW POINTS WILL DROP OFF AS MUCH AS               
EARLIER THOUGHT...SO THIS MEANS NOT AS COLD. DO LIKE THE GRIDDED MOS            
WHICH IS A LITTLE COOLER THAN THE NAM/GFS MODEL RUNS...BUT HAVE                 
CONCERNS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME WIND AND ONLY ISOLATED LOW LYING               
AREAS WILL BE REAL COOL. THE WINDS SHOULD BECOME OFFSHORE SO MOST               
LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE ERIE WILL ALSO COOL DOWN. AT THIS TIME THE LOWEST           
READINGS WILL BE IN INLAND NORTHWEST PA IN THE UPPER 30S SO WILL                
MENTION A CHANCE OF SOME FROST IN LOW LYING AREAS IN PA. THIS WILL              
HAVE TO BE MONITORED.                                                           
SUNNY FRIDAY AND MOS MAV LOOKS GOOD. CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND WITH A              
WEAK GRADIENT I LIKE THE COOLER GRIDDED MOS NUMBERS.                            
ON SATURDAY WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT TO               
THE NORTH SOME OF THE MOS NUMBERS SEEM TOO COOL BASED ON THE LOCAL              
SCHEMES USING THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND EXPECTING THE FRONT TO                
STAY NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GRIDDED MOS SEEMS BETTER BUT WENT            
A DEGREE OR SO COOLER FOR TOL AND FDY.                                          
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ACCORDING TO THE GFS               
AND ECMWF WHILE THE NAM IS SLOWER. AT THIS TIME WITH LIMITED                    
MOISTURE WILL KEEP IT DRY BUT NEXT SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE              
ON IT. WENT WITH A LITTLE WARMER LOWS WITH SOME CLOUDS AROUND.                  
AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE THE 20 POPS FOR SUNDAY. MODEL CONFLICT...            
GFS HAS IT DRY WITH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA...WHILE THE              
NAM AND ECMWF STILL HAVE SOME MOISTURE AND THE UPPER TROF ON SUNDAY.            
NO CHANGES UNTIL THINGS ARE CLEAR. DRY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGE                  
BUILDING ALOFT AND RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THE MEX NUMBERS             
FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY LOOK GOOD AND WENT COOL FOR SUNDAY NIGHT BECAUSE            
OF SOMEWHAT LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.                                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                         
BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE ENSEMBLE IN AGREEMENT WITH UPPER RIDGE ACROSS            
THE LOWER LAKES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS             
AND NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                      
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH THE                 
NIGHT WITH WINDS GRADUALLY SWINGING AROUND TO THE EAST. LAKE                    
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR                     
LOCATIONS EAST OF A CLE TO CAK LINE AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO                   
SPILL INTO NORTHERN OHIO.                                                       
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT               
EXPECT THEM TO DECREASE DURING THE EVENING.                                     
OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. COULD SEE                
A FEW SHOWERS AND AT LEAST BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR SUNDAY               
MORNING AS NEXT FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN              
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO AREA.                                  
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ENTIRE LAKE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON                 
HOURS.  AFTER THAT WINDS WILL DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA...BUT LAKE                
WILL REMAIN CHOPPY WITH NE FLOW AND 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES.                          
FOLLOWING THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE LAKE                   
THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY AND               
MUCH LIKE TONIGHT...WILL BRING WINDS AROUND OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.               
THIS FRONT DOES NOT LOOK TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE BUT SMALL CRAFT                    
WINDS/WAVES COULD STILL BE A POSSIBILITY. HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN              
SETTLES OVERHEAD ON MONDAY.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
PA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR                 
     LEZ142>149.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA                                                             
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN                                                             
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA                                                           
LONG TERM...DJB                                                                 
AVIATION...MULLEN                                                               
MARINE...DJB                                                                    
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
1115 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MINIMAL ELEVATED TSRA CHANCE IS ONLY REAL CONCERN TODAY...AS GOING              
FORECAST ALREADY HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND                 
TEMPS STILL LOOKING GOOD THUS FAR. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FAVORABLE              
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST 1/2 OF THE CWA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND               
OVERNIGHT...BUT BOTH NAM AND RUC SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO             
SUPPORT EVEN ISOLATED TSRA IN THIS AREA. BAND OF SOMEWHAT BETTER                
MOISTURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACCOMPANYING WEAK BOUNDARY...BUT MOVING               
INTO LESS FAVORABLE AREA OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AS THE NIGHT                  
PROGRESSES. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF ISOLATED TSRA FROM THE FAR                  
NORTHWEST CWA FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON...AND WILL SEND UPDATED ZFP                
FOR THAT SHORTLY. WILL HANG ONTO OVERNIGHT MENTION FOR NOW...BUT                
WILL REEVALUATE BEFORE REGULAR ZFP ISSUANCE THIS AFTERNOON.                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THRU 12Z SAT. ISOLATED TSRA                  
POSSIBLE NEAR BOUNDARY AS IT SAGS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA LATE               
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE LIMITED AND BOUNDARY             
WORKING INTO AREA OF LESS FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS THE                
NIGHT PROGRESSES. WL KEEP MENTION OF TSRA OUT OF TAFS DUE TO VERY               
LOW LIKELIHOOD.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
BRISK SLY FLOW BRINGING UP A MODICUM OF MOISTURE WITH IT TDA...                 
COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RELATIVELY DRY DEWPOINTS TO THE SOUTH. FNTL              
BOUNDARY FM NE TO SW SD HAS ALREADY PRODUCED A FEW TSTMS...WHICH MAY            
GRAZE THE FAR NRN CWA THIS MRNG. HOWEVER...AS BOUNDARY MOVES SE AND             
AIR MASS HEATS OUT THIS AFTN...AT LEAST ISOLD TSTMS SHOULD REDVLP FM            
WRN TO NRN PTNS OF THE CWA...MOVG SEWD OVR CWA TNGT BEFORE FALLING              
APART LATE. DEEP VEERING WIND PROFILE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE A               
CONCERN FOR EVEN AN ISOLD SVR STORM THIS AFTN INTO EARLY EVE. ONLY              
DRAWBACK IS WEAK DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SUPPLY. FNT WILL SAG SEWD OVR            
CWA TNGT BEFORE RETURNING SLOWLY NWD AS A WMFNT THIS WEEKEND...WITH             
SOME BACKDOOR COOLING EXPCD NERN HLF CWA. SSELY FLOW SHOULD REALLY              
KICK IN BY SUN AFTN...BRINGING BACK BTR MOISTURE SUN NGT THRU EARLY             
NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF DVLPG BROAD UPR TROF PUNCHING EWD FM RCKYS. UPPD             
POPS SOME WITH FIRST GOOD WAVE SHOWN ON ALL MODELS MOVG EWD OVR CWA             
FM SUN NGT THRU MON. GETS A LITTLE FUZZY AFT THAT WITH STILL SOME               
SIGN OF REDVLPMT MON NGT AND TUE WITH INCRG MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS.              
HOWEVER...TUE NGT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN CHC TSTMS MOVG EWD WITH             
CDFNT...AND MASSAGED UP THE POPS SOME. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL            
TO FINALLY PROVIDE SOME NEEDED SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IN THE AREA. GFS              
MOVES EVERYTHING THRU BY WED...BUT ECMWF STILL HAS A HANGBACK CHC               
TSTMS AS PER PREV FCST INTO WED.                                                
&&                                                                              
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
 JH                                                                             
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
950 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROF CURRENTLY ALONG THE MO                     
RIVER...WITH SCT -TSRA DEVELOPING EAST OF KBIS IN ND. LATEST RUC                
ADVERTISES 85H WINDS TO INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 KTS OVERNIGHT ACROSS               
THE EAST. WITH MINOR 7H OMEGA OCCURRING...CANT ARGUE AGAINST THE                
ISOLD/SLGT CHC POPS CURRENTLY IN FCST. FOR NOW...CURRENT GRIDS ARE              
IN FINE SHAPE WITH ONLY HOURLY TWEAKS REQUIRED. NO ZONE FORECAST                
PACKAGE UPDATE PLANNED ATTM.                                                    
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT                                    
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE NEAR TERM IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES                    
TONIGHT. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS                 
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF A RIDGE SETTING UP OVER THE ROCKIES.                
WEAK PVA WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN CWA TONIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH                
CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM LAKE WINNIPEG TO EASTERN COLORADO WILL ALSO              
SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...A 20 TO 35 KNOT              
LLJ WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH 1000-1500 J/KG OF                  
CAPE AND LIS IN THE -2 TO -5 RANGE. TWO LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE                
700 MB TEMPS AROUND +8 TO +9 AND LIMITED MOISTURE.                              
THEREFORE...WILL JUST KEEP A SMALL POP GOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN                
CWA CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. IF ANY STORMS DO GET                      
GOING...THEY MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL. A               
COLD FRONT WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA TO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA                     
TONIGHT. THIS FRONT REACHES SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA BY FRIDAY                     
AFTERNOON...THEN PUSHES TO SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT                   
BEFORE STALLING OUT THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...THEN PUSHING BACK                
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS                
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. EVEN THOUGH WEAK INSTABILITY REMAINS                 
OVER THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT...MOISTURE WILL                     
CONTINUE TO BE VERY LIMITED THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD...AND                
HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION OUT AT THIS                   
TIME.                                                                           
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS              
H85 TEMPS REMAIN IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S. WILL STICK WILL                 
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.                                    
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY                                            
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED DEALS WITH PRECIPITATION AS                  
MODELS SHOW A COUPLE OF WAVES PASSING THROUGH THE REGION.                       
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH              
PLAINS WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW/WAA UP THE PLAIN STATES. THE                  
SURFACE LOW TAKES ON A BIT OF A NEGATIVE TILT...LEADING TO A                    
SLOWER PROGRESSION. HAVE BACKED PCPN OFF BY SIX HOURS...AND WOULD               
NOT BE SURPRISED IF PCPN IS REMOVED ALL TOGETHER ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY              
NIGHT HOWEVER...WITH A STRONG LLJ OF 40KTS AND 25KTS OF 0-1KM BULK              
SHEAR...HAVE INCREASED POPS SOME ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE LOW                   
MOVES NNE INTO CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN ON TUESDAY...WITH THE                       
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN DE-AMPLIFYING OVER THE REGION. THE                 
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS SLOWLY PUSHES EASTWARD ON                             
WEDNESDAY...ENDING PCPN CHANCES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THERE                  
AFTER...WITH THE GFS SHOWING WARMER AIR WORKING BACK INTO THE AREA              
FOR THE NEXT WEEKEND.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
P6SM VSBYS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY.                     
SCT/BKN130 CLOUDS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS KMBG/KPIR                       
TERMINALS THROUGH 10Z...AND ACROSS KABR/KATY TERMINALS THROUGH                  
13Z. ISOLD -TSRA IS PSBL AFT 06Z FOR THE KABR/KATY TERMINALS...BUT              
CONFIDENCE OF ACTUAL DEVELOPMENT IS LOW...SO LEFT OUT OF TERMINAL               
FCSTS ATTM.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...HINTZ                                                                  
SHORT TERM...TMT                                                                
LONG TERM...PARKIN                                                              
AVIATION...HINTZ                                                                
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN                                                            
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX                                         
936 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...A SPRINKLING OF SHOWERS ARE NOTED SOUTHEAST OF PORT                   
ISABEL AND JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN CWA BORDER. RUC40 DEPICTS A               
FEW WEAK MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVES PASSING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS                 
THIS MORNING WITH A FEW OTHERS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE             
REMAINS LIMITED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1.53 INCHES AT                   
BRO...1.25 CRP AND 1.39 INCHES AT DEL RIO. ANY RAIN THAT FALLS IN               
THE WESTERN ZONES WILL LIKELY NOT REACH THE GROUND AND WITH                     
SHOWERS OFF THE COAST LIKELY TO REMAIN OFF THE COAST. WITH THIS                 
SAID 10 PERCENT POPS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST WILL SUFFICE.                    
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN THE BALLPARK EVEN WITH                
BRIEFLY THICKER CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD. REST OF THE FORECAST                   
LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS               
THIS MORNING. WOULD EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO REMAIN ALONG WITH SOME               
DEVELOPING CU THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN                 
REPORTED AT LRD. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL                
PREVAIL TODAY INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGIONAL            
AIRPORTS THE NEXT 24 HOURS.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...AT 8 AM BUOY020 REPORTED A NORTH NORTHEAST WIND AROUND 10             
KNOTS AND SEAS AT 3 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 6 SECONDS. THE LOWER                  
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS CONTINUE TO BE BETWEEN TWO WEATHER FEATURES. A             
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHEASTERN TEXAS SOUTH               
AND WESTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MEXICO THIS MORNING.                     
MEANWHILE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HOLD ACROSS THE            
BAY OF CAMPECHE REGION. NO DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS                      
ANTICIPATED AS CONDITIONS ARE UNFAVORABLE AT THIS TIME. WOULD EXPECT            
MORE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TODAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR              
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON                
WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES RETURNING ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN             
LIGHT TO MODERATE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST TODAY INTO FRIDAY.                
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE RELATIVELY LOW THE NEXT 24 HOURS.                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 311 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008...500 MB                   
TROFFING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS IS RESULTING IN SOME SCT                 
CONV OVER CENTRAL TX EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...OVER THE                   
WESTERN GULF...THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FIRING OFF SOME ISOLD                
TO SCT CONV EXTENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH INTO THE BAY OF                       
CAMPECHE. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE MAINTAINS THE 500 MB TROFFING OVER               
TX AND DIGS IT STEADILY EAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS                 
WEEKEND. THIS RESULTS IN PERSISTENT WEAK TO MODERATE SURFACE                    
TROFFING OVER THE WESTERN GULF WHICH WILL KEEP UP THE THREAT OF                 
SOME ISOLD TO SCT MARINE CONV JUST OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL               
DAYS. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE LEVELS                
OFFSHORE WILL ADVECT IN OVER THE BRO CWA. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM                  
KEEP THE BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE POSITIONED JUST OFFSHORE IN                
THE SHORT RANGE. THE ECMWF SUPPORTS THIS GENERAL TREND AND WILL                 
LEAVE OUT ANY SIGNIFICANT POPS IN THE SHORT RANGE. MAV AND MET                  
TEMPS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT REFLECTING SLOWLY WARMING TEMPS              
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY WARMER               
MAV TEMPS. IN THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD...THE ECMWF AND THE GFS                   
DIVERGE QUITE A BIT WITH THE GFS MAINTAINING A DRY BIAS WITH THE                
ECMWF MAINTAINING A WET BIAS. BOTH MODELS TRY TO BUILD SOME WEAK                
TO MODERATE 500 MB RIDGING OVER THE TX COAST WHICH EXPLAINS THE                 
DRYNESS IN THE GFS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A WEAKNESS IN                 
THE 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE REGION WHICH MAY EXPLAIN THE HIGHER POPS              
AND BETTER MOISTURE FIELDS SHOWN IN THIS MODEL. THE ECMWF APPEARS               
TO BE COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUNS              
AND WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE OF POPS BETWEEN THE TWO WITH A                    
MENTION OF A SLGT CHC POPS IN THE EXTENDED RANGE. MEX TEMP                      
GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY THROUGH DAY 7 WITH SO-               
SO CONSISTENCY SHOWING UP FOR POPS. ACCORDINGLY...WILL STICK                    
PRETTY CLOSE TO THE MEX GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.                                     
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  85  68  88  72 /  10  10  10  10                           
BROWNSVILLE          85  67  89  69 /  10  10  10  10                           
HARLINGEN            85  65  89  69 /  10  10  10  10                           
MCALLEN              86  65  90  67 /  10  10  10  10                           
RIO GRANDE CITY      87  65  91  68 /  10  10  10  10                           
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   84  73  86  74 /  10  10  10  10                           
&&                                                                              
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:                                   
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE                                              
59/57                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
436 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008                                                      
500MB RUC ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW NEARLY ZONAL FLOW               
ACROSS TNE NORTHERN US AND A STRONG RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS.            
WITHIN THE RIDGE...A MID LEVEL LOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTRAL               
PLAINS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE             
OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.                                          
MEANWHILE...AN ELONGATED TROUGH STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY DOWN                 
THROUGH MN WILL TRACK ACROSS WI AND MI TODAY AND SATURDAY. THERE IS             
A STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AT 850MB ORIENTED WEST TO EAST THAT               
WILL DIP SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO OUR CWA BY SATURDAY            
NIGHT.                                                                          
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...                                         
HIGH...THIN CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM SHOULD                  
LINGER TODAY...BUT SKIES WILL REMAIN SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. WITH                
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL BE                   
ALLOWED TO CREEP UP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. BEHIND THE COLD            
FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT...850 MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND 10 TO              
12C...CAUSING A CHILLY SUNDAY MORNING AND MILD SUNDAY AFTERNOON.                
PCPN CHANCES WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE SLIGHT...AS DEW POINT                
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 60 ACROSS THE CWA               
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS NOT VERY STRONG.                 
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                
DECIDED TO EXTEND THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF PCPN INTO SATURDAY EVENING               
(AS SHOWERS...NOT TSTORMS). NAM AND GFS SHOW ELEVATED CAPE VALUES IN            
THE 700-800 J/KG RANGE ABOVE AN INVERSION...ALTHOUGH THIS CAPE IS               
POSSIBLY OVERDONE DUE TO THEIR HIGHER DEWPOINTS PROGGED.                        
HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IS ENHANCED OVER SOUTH              
CENTRAL WI THROUGH 06Z...SO THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF A LINGERING              
SHOWER FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS BEYOND SUNSET.                                     
AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN MAKE ITS WAY INTO            
THE REGION. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. A LOW                
PRESSURE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON            
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS ENOUGH AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS TO BRING THE                 
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS FURTHER EASTWARD ON                        
WEDNESDAY...SO DID SO IN COORDINATION WITH GRB.                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO KEEP VFR                     
CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN THIN CI THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.                   
FORECAST 15-20KT 925 MB WINDS INDICATE ENOUGH MIXING TONIGHT TO                 
PREVENT MENTION OF FOG IN TAFS...BUT ONCE AGAIN SOME PATCHY MIFG                
POSSIBLE.                                                                       
.MARINE...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY            
IN NRN ZONES. WAVE MODEL PRODUCING 3 TO 4 FOOT WAVES BEFORE LOWERING            
WITH EXPECTED SHIFT TO SWLY DIRECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.              
IF SOUTH WINDS BECOME STRONGER THAN EXPECTED...OR OFFSHORE SHIFT                
OCCURS LATER THAN FORECAST SCA MAY BE NEEDED. BETTER CHANCE FOR AN              
SCA COMES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH INCREASING NE                 
WINDS AND FAVORABLE FETCH BEHIND FRONT.                                         
&&                                                                              
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT/LONG TERM...13/MRC                                                        
AVIATION/MARINE...09/REM                                                        
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
244 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
244 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2008                                                      
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE BEGINNING           
OF NEXT WEEK...WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND MAX TEMPERATURES...                
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE FLOW FROM THE             
CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA. NUMEROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN               
THIS FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC. MAIN SYSTEM INTEREST IS JUST PUSHING                
ONTO THE WEST COAST.                                                            
AT JET LEVEL MODELS INITIALIZED REASONABLY. AT MID LEVELS...BASED ON            
SATELLITE INITIALLY THE RUC/ECMWF FOLLOWED BY THE GFS WERE DOING                
THE BEST ON THE POSITION. BY 06Z...ALL THE MODELS EXCEPT THE UKMET              
AND NGM HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON IT. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THAT THE           
UKMET WAS DOING SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE ECMWF/GFS WITH THE SYSTEM.             
ON THE RIDGE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...THE MODELS TENDED TO NOT BE                 
STRONG ENOUGH/TOO FAR EAST. HEAR THE GFS WAS DOING SLIGHTLY BETTER              
THAN THE UKMET AND ECMWF. THE GFS ALSO LOOKS TO HAVE A LITTLE BETTER            
HANDLE ON THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE.                                               
AT THE SURFACE...THE NAM/UKMET/ECMWF WERE DOING THE BEST THROUGH                
THE PERIOD WITH THE GFS THE OUTLIER. MODELS INITIALIZED WELL ON                 
TEMPERATURES BUT WERE A TAD WARM ON TOP OF US TO START WITH. MODELS             
ARE NOT TOO DIFFERENT. WILL TEND TO WITH BLEND OF THE NAM...UKMET...            
AND ECMWF FOR THIS FORECAST.                                                    
TODAY/TONIGHT...WILL START OUT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TO                 
START WITH AS A SURFACE TROUGH AS A RESULT OF A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE            
STALLS AND THEN EVENTUALLY WASHES. LEE TROUGH STARTS DEVELOPING IN              
THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE NIGHT. NOT                
THE GREATEST WIND SET UP TO GET VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. WILL TEND TO            
GO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW THE WARMER GUIDANCE.                                  
NOW THE FORECAST STARTS GETTING INTERESTING. MODELS INDICATING                  
INSTABILITY/CAPE ALOFT. LOW LEVEL JET GETS GOING AS WELL. THETA-E               
LAPSE RATES AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS LINE UP BEST OVER THE                   
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MODELS SHOW QPF IS THIS              
AREA AS WELL. ONE DIFFERENCE IS IN THE TIMING. THE NAM IS                       
FASTER/FURTHER NORTH AND EAST WITH BREAKING OUT THE PRECIPITATION.              
NAM LOOKS MORE REASONABLE AT THIS TIME WITH ITS PLACEMENT.                      
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING IN THE              
EAST IN THE MORNING. GETS A LITTLE TRICKIER IN THE AFTERNOON.                   
DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG AND EXTENSIVE THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY                   
MORNING CONVECTION IS COULD AFFECT HOW FAST CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN              
THE AFTERNOON...IF AT ALL. MODELS HINT AT AN AREA OF NO                         
PRECIPITATION WITH ONGOING OR CONTINUING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST              
AND NORTHEAST. MODELS TRY TO RELOAD AND FIRE OFF NEW CONVECTION IN              
THE WEST WITH NEW LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MID LEVEL LIFT.                     
HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW CAP STILL NOT QUITE BROKEN. WAS CREATIVE WITH             
THE LAYOUT OF PRECIPITATION BUT HAD A HARD TIME PUTTING IT IN FOR               
EVERYONE.                                                                       
GRADIENT REALLY TIGHTENS UP SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KANSAS AND             
NEBRASKA OF THE AREA. INDICATIONS ARE THAT WINDY CONDITIONS WILL                
DEVELOP HERE AND COULD DEVELOP GUSTS TO NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL            
HAVE A LIMITED AMOUNT OF SUN WHICH MAY HOLD SPEEDS BACK A LITTLE.               
DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND UNFAVORABLE DIRECTION OF WINDS WILL TEND TO              
BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE WITH THE NORTHEAST SECTION THE               
COOLEST.                                                                        
DEEPEST MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND LIFT COINCIDE VERY WELL OVER               
THE EASTERN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NIGHT.           
SO WEIGHTED THE HIGHER POPS IN THAT AREA.                                       
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...AGAIN WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH EARLY                 
MORNING CONVECTION THERE IS. LOOK TO BE SOME LINGERING                          
PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST EARLY. THEN NEXT MID BATCH OF MID LEVEL               
LIFT AND MOISTURE MOVE INTO THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. GFS SHOWS                
THE AIR MASS CAPPED IN MOST AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON WHEREAS THE NAM              
IS SHOWING THE WEST WITH NO CINH. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE DIFFERENT IN             
SURFACE LOW POSITION. HOWEVER...THEY DO SHOW THE LEAST AMOUNT OF LOW            
LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION AND THE BEST OVER THE                 
NORTHERN AND EASTERN LOCATIONS.                                                 
AM IMPRESSED WITH THE LIFT THAT MOVES ACROSS FROM LATE AFTERNOON                
INTO THE NIGHT BUT AM NOT SURE OF MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. MODELS                 
ALSO DISAGREE ON POSITION/SPEED OF FRONT MOVING THROUGH. AT THIS TIME           
WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AND ACROSS            
THE ENTIRE AREA THAT NIGHT. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE DONE BY 12Z.              
MODELS REALLY WARM UP TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST.               
THIS MAKES SENSE IF THE DRY AIR ENDS UP THERE. WILL TEND TO NEAR TO             
SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE.                                                        
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...WOULD NOT NORMALLY GO THIS FAR ON THE MID               
SHIFT. BUT ANOTHER PRECIPITATION SHOT IS IN THE GRIDS FOR THE LATE              
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. DESPITE THE FACT COULD HAVE SOME LINGERING             
IN THE EAST VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AREA LOOKS TO BE UNDER                 
SUBSIDENCE AND TEMPORARY DRYING AT MID LEVELS. ALSO WILL BE UNDER               
THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE MOST OF THE DAY. WILL REMOVE THE                   
PRECIPITATION FROM TUESDAY. AM NOT SOLD ON THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR                
THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY                  
ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATER IN THE NIGHT. WILL KEEP THE                 
PRECIPITATION IN FOR THE WHOLE PERIOD BUT EXPECT IT TO BE BETWEEN               
06Z AND 12Z. COOL TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY AS             
WELL.                                                                           
THANKS TO ALL FOR COLLABORATION.                                                
BULLER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
1100 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2008                                                     
FOR 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT                
24 HOURS. FEW250 WITH LIGHT/VAR WINDS UNDER 6KT WILL PERSIST                    
THROUGH 16Z-18Z BEFORE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 10-13KTS.               
CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES OF 6-9K FT WILL ALSO DEVELOP DURING THE               
AFTERNOON WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS INCREASING BY EARLY                
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.                             
DDT                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
339 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 337 AM/                                                  
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN TODAY...PRODUCING         
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND MAYBE SOME THUNDER. IN ITS WAKE...COOL               
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE FIRST              
HALF OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.                                                     
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 337 AM/...TODAY                                        
02Z SURFACE/RUC ANALYSIS AND IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW                           
A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO/LAKE SUPERIOR AND                
CENTRAL MN...AND A SURFACE TROUGH EMANATING FROM THE FRONT ACROSS               
SOUTHERN MN AND SOUTHEAST SD.  DESPITE MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING FAR              
TO THE NORTH ACROSS ONTARIO...BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE IS                      
INTERACTING WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7-7.5 C/KM TO              
PRODUCE SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN                      
UPPER/NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND WISCONSIN.  ADDITIONAL CONVECTION              
ALSO IS OCCASIONALLY POPPING UP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR RIGHT AHEAD OF               
THE FRONT WHERE ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEPICTED BY THE RUC IS                     
ESTIMATED AT 200-600 J/KG.  AS THIS FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SE              
TODAY...THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER            
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.                                                              
TODAY...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS WILL THIN AS IT CONTINUES TO SHIFT              
SOUTH THIS MORNING.  MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO REMAIN STEEP               
WITHIN THIS BAND...SO FIND IT HARD TO RULE OUT ELEVATED SPOTTY                  
SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS IT REACHES THE SOUTHERN FORECAST             
AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR             
WILL ALSO BE DROPPING SOUTH...CLEARING EASTERN UPPER BY EARLY                   
AFTERNOON...AND THE SE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY IN THE EVENING. MODEL             
SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONVECTION SHOULD BE CAPPED OFF FROM THE SURFACE             
PRIOR TO 18Z...BUT SUBTLE COOLING AROUND 800MB SUGGESTS THIS CAP                
ERODES SHORTLY THEREAFTER.  UPSTREAM OBS SHOW MOISTURE POOLING                  
ALONG THE FRONT WILL YIELD UPPER 50 SURFACE DEWPOINTS...WHICH WOULD             
TRANSLATE TO ML CAPES CLOSE TO 800 J/KG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST                    
FORECAST AREA.  BEST WIND FIELDS RESIDE BEHIND THE FRONT SO                     
ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED.  BUT FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC              
PROFILE WITH THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FAVOR A CHANCE FOR                 
SMALL HAIL.  WILL MENTION HAIL UP TO 1/2 INCH IN THE HWO FOR AREAS              
EAST OF I 75 AND SOUTH OF M-32 FOR THE AFTERNOON.                               
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 337 AM/...TONIGHT AND BEYOND                            
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING               
AND 1028MB HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN.  NORTH TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL                
WINDS WILL COLD ADVECT 850MB TEMPS IN THE 2C TO 3C RANGE ACROSS THE             
NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA BY EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT ALSO VERY DRY             
AIR TO THE TUNE OF 15 PCT RH BETWEEN 850-700MB.  SO EVEN THOUGH                 
INSTABILITY WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS LAKE HURON...THIS DRY AIR MAY               
MITIGATE STRATO-CU DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NE FORECAST AREA SOMEWHAT.              
BUT BECAUSE OF THE INCOMING COLD AIR...INLAND AREAS ACROSS EASTERN              
UPPER MAY APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK AND HAVE ADDED PATCHY FROST TO             
THE FORECAST.                                                                   
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS NORTH OF THE             
FORECAST AREA.  THERMAL TROUGH WILL PASS TO THE EAST DURING THE                 
MORNING AND 850MB TEMPS MODERATE SOMEWHAT DURING THE AFTERNOON.                 
WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SCT/BKN CU FIELD DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING          
ACROSS THE NE CWA...BUT WARMING LOW LEVEL TEMPS AND DECREASING                  
MOISTURE FLUX OFF LAKE HURON WILL HELP CU ERODE DURING THE                      
AFTERNOON.  MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE              
AREA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  THESE CLOUDS DESPITE LIGHT              
WINDS SHOULD PREVENT ANY FROST CONCERNS FROM OCCURING.                          
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH                   
PRESSURE WILL ENSURE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHWOODS                  
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES OVER THE PERIOD.  BY               
WEDNESDAY...POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER             
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA.                
STILL SOME TIMING CONCERNS HERE...BUT WILL ADJUST FORECAST TO LINE              
UP WITH THE SURROUNDING OFFICES.                                                
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 337 AM/                                                    
WAVE HEIGHTS OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN HAVE DECREASED                         
SUBSTANTIALLY FROM EIGHT FEET LAST EVENING BUT WILL TAKE A LITTLE               
LONGER TO SUBSIDE GIVEN WIND SPEEDS STILL GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS.                  
THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING SO WILL ONLY EXTEND               
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES UNTIL LATE MORNING.  THEREAFTER...NO FURTHER             
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED SINCE WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW                  
CRITERIA WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE             
AREA.                                                                           
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 1127 PM/...VALID FOR 06Z TAFS                            
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT - NOW MOVING THROUGH WESTERN LAKE               
SUPERIOR - VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY AM.                     
HOWEVER...STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC WILL LEAD TO THE RISK OF LOW            
LEVEL WIND SHEAR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON SATURDAY...COLD                
FRONT EXPECTED TO SLIP THROUGH THE REGION PASSING THROUGH THE                   
TERMINAL SITES BY 18Z. WILL BE A LOW END CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER             
AT TVC/PLN WITH THE FRONT. BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL BE FOUND AT APN              
AFTER 18Z...WHERE SOME DAYTIME HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP             
DESTABILIZE THINGS JUST A BIT.                                                  
THEN...WITH COOLER AIR SLIPPING IN BEHIND THE FRONT...ANTICIPATED A             
FEW HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR CIGS                
PERSISTING AT APN INTO THE EVENING AS COOL FLOW TURNS NORTHEAST OFF             
LAKE HURON.                                                                     
ADAM                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LMZ341-342-344>346.          
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LHZ345.                      
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR                 
     LSZ321.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
140 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2008                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE                                
.UPDATE...                                                                      
A THIN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA HAVE DVLPD ALG COLD FNT OVER THE MN                    
ARROWHEAD...SO ADDED LO CHC POPS TO THE WRN CWA THRU 06Z...WHEN THIS            
FNT IS EXPECTED TO PASS. ALTHOUGH LOSS OF SFC HTG MAY CAUSE THIS                
CNVCTN TO WEAKEN...STEEP LAPSE RATES UP TO 7.5C/KM IN THE H7-5 LYR              
SHOULD ALLOW THE SHRA TO LINGER IN THE PRESENCE OF SOME H85-5                   
QVECTOR CNVGC AND LLVL CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FNT.                      
&&                                                                              
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
19Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING               
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND TROUGHING DROPPING DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL               
CANADA. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...A SHRTWV STRETCHES FROM NE ONTARIO SW            
TO NW WI...WHICH IS COMBINING WITH MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND                  
7-7.5C/KM LAPSE RATES IN PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND                         
THUNDERSTORMS ON LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE KEWEENAW. AHEAD OF THE                  
TROUGH...WARM AIR HAS MOVED INTO UPPER MI FROM THE PLAINS...WITH A              
15Z SOUNDING FROM SAW SHOWING 850MB TEMPS OF 16C. TEMPERATURES HAVE             
NOT MIXED UP TO THIS LEVEL...DESPITE A BREEZY SOUTHWEST WIND...DUE              
TO THE LOWER SUN ANGLE AROUND THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX. NEVERTHELESS...             
READINGS HAVE CLIMBED ABOVE NORMAL WITH DOWNSLOPE AREAS AROUND                  
80...WHILE LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE COOLER LAKE MI WATERS ARE IN               
THE MID 60S. TO THE NW...COOLER AIR CAN BE SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH            
MANITOBA...BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING INTO            
THE 40S OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA...COMPARED TO 70 DEGREE READINGS AHEAD            
OF THE FRONT. 850MB TEMPS WERE 1C AT CYQD AT -4C AT CHURCHILL                   
MB...INDICATIVE ALSO OF THE COLD AIR. SOME CELLULAR LOW CLOUDS ARE              
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD AIR...BUT VERY FEW REPORTS OF ANY PCPN.                
FARTHER TO THE NW...HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER FAR NORTHERN                  
SASKATCHEWAN.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...                                           
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL DIG A BIT MORE TOWARDS              
UPPER MI DURING THE NEXT 18 HOURS...BUT THEN START MOVING EASTWARD              
DUE TO UPPER TROUGH JUST OFF THE WEST COAST TRYING TO PUSH EAST. THE            
DIGGING WILL BE ENOUGH TO DRIVE THE COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE                 
CWA...THOUGH...CROSSING UPPER MI TONIGHT AND REACHING THE MILWAUKEE             
AREA BY 00Z SUN. UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES (OR THE TROUGH DIGS               
ENOUGH SOUTH)...THE AREA WILL BE UNDER WEAK MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS             
AND 7-7.5C/KM LAPSE RATES. THE GFS AND NAM SHOW LIGHT QPF GRADUALLY             
SINKING SE WITH TIME...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE                         
FRONTOGENESIS. ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO CONTINUE 20 POPS THROUGH                
MUCH OF THE NIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN THE CENTRAL U.P. SINCE THE UPPER            
FLOW DOES NOT APPEAR TO ALLOW FOR A FAST MOTION SOUTH WITH THE PCPN.            
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...LOW CLOUDS SEEN OVER MANITOBA WILL MOVE                
INTO UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OVER THE NORTH                 
CENTRAL U.P. WHERE UPSLOPE AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED. CLOUDS             
ARE EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING UNTIL DRIER            
AIR AND ANTICYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH OVER               
NRN SASKATCHEWAN NOSING IN...ALONG WITH DAYTIME MIXING...HELP                   
MIX/CLEAR THEM OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DECLINED TO MENTION ANY PCPN             
WITH THE LOW CLOUDS GIVEN LACK OF REPORTS UPSTREAM AND THAT                     
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE MOISTURE TO BE QUITE SHALLOW.                             
BIGGEST IMPACTS FROM THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS WILL BE ON TEMPS              
AND WINDS. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT ARE LIKELY OCCURRING TOWARD SUNRISE                
SINCE THEY PROBABLY WILL NOT FALL OFF MUCH UNTIL THE FRONT                      
PASSES...DUE TO A SW BREEZE KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED. GUSTY             
NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BRING TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 50S               
AND POSSIBLY UPPER 40S...COOLEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WEST            
HALF OF UPPER MI. WITH THE COOL AIR MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT...TEMPS              
ARE GOING TO STRUGGLE RISING TOMORROW. LATEST MET/MAV GUIDANCE ARE A            
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND GIVEN WHAT                  
TEMPERATURES ARE DOING UPSTREAM OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA...FEEL THAT              
IS PROBABLY THE WAY TO GO. MUCH OF THE NORTHERN U.P. SHOULD BE STUCK            
IN THE 50S...THANKS TO 900MB TEMPS DROPPING TO 2-4C. THE SOUTHERN               
U.P. WILL BE WARMER...ESPECIALLY DOWN NEAR MNM WHERE 900MB TEMPS ARE            
THE WARMEST.                                                                    
.LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRI)...                                      
FIRST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM IS POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING TEMPS AND                
WIDESPREAD FROST AWAY FM THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE. LARGE               
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH               
EARLY SATURDAY. INITIALLY DURING SATURDAY EVENING...NORTHERLY BLYR              
WINDS KEEP TEMPS FM FALLING TOO QUICKLY BUT EVENTUALLY WINDS MOST               
EVERYWHERE WILL BECOME LIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND SKIES BECOMING CLEAR              
SET UP A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS VERY DRY AIR            
MOVES ACROSS IN THE FORM OF A PRECIPITABLE WATER MINIMUM. COOP                  
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE MINS IN FAVORED COLD SPOTS FALLING               
BLO 32F AND HAVE WENT THIS WAY WITH THE LATEST MIN TEMP GRIDS.                  
INCREASED FROST COVERAGE AS WELL...WITH WIDESPREAD FROST EXPECTED               
OVR MUCH OF THE CWA...AWAY FM THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE. THOUGHT ABOUT            
GOING WITH MINS BLO GUIDANCE ALONG LK MICHIGAN SHORE TOO AS KESC CAN            
FALL OFF MORE THAN GUIDANCE SHOWS IN THESE TYPE OF SETUPS...BUT                 
SINCE EAST WINDS FLOWING OFF LK MICHIGAN LATE MAY PROMOTE SOME LAKE             
EFFECT CLOUDS (DELTA T/S APPROACH 10C WITH LK MI WATER TEMPS NEAR               
17C) KEPT SHORELINE IN THE UPR 30S-LWR 40S. ONLY HEADLINE POSTED                
ATTM WAS A FREEZE WATCH FOR INTERIOR WEST CWA...SOUTHERN HOUGHTON TO            
BARAGA AND ALSO IRON. FROST ADVY LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF              
THE CWA BUT WILL LEAVE THAT TO LATER SHIFTS AS IT IS STILL IN THE               
LONG TERM.                                                                      
NEXT ISSUE IS THE PERSISTENT QPF GFS SHOWS ALONG TIGHTENING H85                 
FRONT FOR SUN/SUN NIGHT. SIMILAR TO PAST MODEL RUNS...GFS REMAINS               
LARGELY ON ITS OWN AND WILL CONTINUE TO DISCOUNT. APPEARS THAT QPF              
IS TIED TO STEEPENING H85-H7/H7-H5 LAPSE RATES AOA 7.0C/KM AS A                 
RESULT OF WARM ADVECTION AT H7. THERE IS ALSO SOME WEAK MID LEVEL               
FGEN PRESENT ALONG H85 FRONT AS WELL. WARM FRONT...FIRST AT H85 THEN            
AT THE SFC...LIFT THROUGH CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. AS IT LOOKED YDY...BEST             
H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ALSO THE STEEPER POCKET OF LAPSE RATES               
TEAM UP TO THE NW OF UPR LAKES INTO MANITOBA AND ONTARIO. SOUNDINGS             
SHOW A MID CLOUD DECK STREAMING ACROSS THE CWA LATE SUN INTO SUN                
NIGHT. DRY LOW LEVELS BLO THIS CLOUD BASE SHOULD PROHIBIT MUCH IN               
THE WAY OF PCPN AND THUS KEPT THE FORECAST DRY OVER CWA.                        
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FM THIS WEEKEND IS               
THEN REPLACED BY A WARMING TREND EARLY THIS WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE OVER            
THE SOUTHWEST CONUS BUILDS INTO GREAT LAKES PUSHING THE WARM FRONT              
NORTH OF THE REGION. WESTERN CONUS TROUGH UPSTREAM OF THE RIDGE                 
SHIFTS EAST BY MIDWEEK BRINGING THE RETURN OF A COLD FRONT AND A                
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.               
EXTENDED MODELS USED...GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN GLOBAL...AND GFS                
ENSEMBLE AGREE IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN. TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT             
AND PCPN CHANCES INTO THE AREA REMAINS MAIN FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED.              
MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE...EXCEPT THE GFS ENSEMBLES...INDICATE A FROPA              
ON WED. SINCE THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THAT IDEA             
PLACED HIGHEST POPS IN THE GRIDS AT THAT TIME. INCREASING MOISTURE              
ADVECTION AT H85 AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD EVEN TRIGGER SCATTERED                
SHOWERS OUT OF A MID CLOUD DECK AS EARLY AS TUESDAY. BUT SINCE                  
GREATEST GRADIENT IN THIS ADVANCING MOISTURE STAYS OVR WESTERN LK               
SUPERIOR...KEPT ANY POPS TUE OUT OF THE LAND PORTION OF THE WESTERN             
CWA UNTIL LATE TUE NIGHT. THESE MID CLOUDS ON TUE COULD AFFECT MAX              
TEMPS. MIXING TO H85 TEMPS IN MID TEENS RESULTS IN MAX TEMPS INTO               
THE LWR 80S BUT DUE TO POSSIBLE CLOUDS...TEMPERED THIS BACK TO THE              
MID-UPR 70S WHICH IS STILL A NUDGE ABOVE MOST GUIDANCE.                         
FRONT CLEARS MOST OF CWA BY LATER THU BUT THEN STALLS OUT JUST TO               
THE SOUTH OVR WI AND LWR MI AS THE BOUNDARY BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE             
UPPER FLOW. DOES NOT SEEM THAT BOUNDARY IS FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO DROP              
POPS IN ITS WAKE. IN FACT...LATEST GFS/ECMWF NOW INDICATE A H85-H7              
WAVE RIDES ALONG THIS SFC BOUNDARY TO BRING A WIDESPREAD RAIN TO UPR            
LAKES THU. MOST PCPN WOULD BE OUT OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY...BUT THE                
APPROACH OF A MORE NORTHERN STREAM ORIGIN WAVE MAY BRING ANOTHER                
CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE IN THE DAY. JUST INCLUDED SOME POPS OVR WRN LK             
SUPERIOR AT THIS POINT.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT A SHARP WSHFT TO NNE FOLLOWING COLD FROPA EARLY THIS MRNG.               
AIRMASS UPSTREAM BEHIND THE FNT IS NOT PARTICULARLY MOIST PER 00Z               
YPL/INL RAOBS AND SFC OBS...SO EXPECT A BKN SC DECK/MVFR CONDITIONS             
TO DVLP ONLY AT SAW WHERE EXPECTED POST FROPA WIND WL UPSLOPE AS                
MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES ON THE HEELS OF GUSTY WINDS. DIURNAL HTG WL             
SCT OUT THIS MVFR DECK AT SAW SAT AFTN...WITH VFR CONDITIONS                    
DOMINATING LATE IN THE DAY WITH ARRIVAL OF CORE OF DRY AIRMASS.                 
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
SW WINDS OF 15 TO 30 KT...GREATEST OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR                   
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WILL DIMINISH BRIEFLY THIS EVENING...THEN               
RAPIDLY INCREASE OUT OF THE N OR NE TO 20 TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT IN            
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. TOUGH             
CALL ON WHETHER OR NOT WINDS WILL REACH GALE FORCE ON NORTH CENTRAL             
AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT. RAPID PRESSURE RISES BEHIND             
THE FRONT WOULD SUGGEST IT...BUT WIND REPORTS AT EXPOSED                        
LOCATIONS...EVEN ON LAKE WINNIPEG...HAVE BEEN GENERALLY 30 KT OR                
LESS. THEREFORE...HAVE NOT GONE WITH A GALE WARNING AND MENTIONED A             
FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS INSTEAD. WINDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AND A             
GALE WARNING COULD STILL BE ISSUED. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER              
NRN SASKATCHEWAN NOSING SE INTO LAKE SUPERIOR ON SAT WILL HELP                  
DIMINISH THE WINDS TO UNDER 20 KT BY SAT EVENING. LIGHT WIND REGIME             
PERSISTS INTO MONDAY THEN SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD             
FRONT INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS TUE BEFORE DIMINISHING ON WED.                       
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  FREEZE WATCH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING                 
  MIZ004-010-084.                                                               
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...KC                                                                     
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM..AJ                                                         
LONG TERM...JLA                                                                 
AVIATION...KC                                                                   
MARINE...AJ/JLA                                                                 
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1259 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
HAVE TWEAKED THE OVERNIGHT GRIDS TO INCLUDE PATCHY FOG ACROSS MOST              
OF CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL MN. LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND                 
SATURATED SOIL FROM THE RAINFALL FRIDAY EVENING HAVE CONTRIBUTED                
TO PATCHY FOG AND ATTENDANT VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 1/2 MILE AND 2                 
MILES. EXPECT THE MOST WIDESPREAD FOG TO EXTEND ALONG AND NORTH OF              
A LINE FROM FROM MILACA TOWARD ST CLOUD...WILLMAR...AND CANBY.                  
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 833 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008/                               
UPDATE TO FORECAST WILL MAINLY BE TO UPDATE WORDING FOR THE                     
OVERNIGHT PERIOD... WITH MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.                 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEASTWARD... WITH                  
CONVECTION DISSIPATING AS DAYTIME INSTABILITY FADES. SOME ELEVATED              
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA                 
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS... ALTHOUGH THERE APPEARS TO BE VERY                
LIMITED FORCING TO GET ANY ELEVATED ACTIVITY GOING. HOWEVER...                  
WITH THE NAM... RUC... AND LOCAL LAPSWRF KEEPING SOME NEARLY                    
SATURATED RH IN THE 850-700MB LAYER THROUGH 12Z IT WOULD BE TOUGH               
TO RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA. THE BETTER FORCING... OWING TO               
FRONTOGENESIS AND THE ACTUAL 1000-850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE... IS                   
FARTHER NORTH NEAR WHERE THE STRONGER CONVECTION IN NORTHEAST                   
MINNESOTA WAS EARLIER IN THE EVENING. THIS DOES DROP                            
SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT... ALTHOUGH IT WEAKENS AND WITH THE                     
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZING... DO NOT BELIEVE IT WILL BE ABLE TO                 
KICK OFF ANY FURTHER ACTIVITY. KMPX 00Z RAOB SUGGESTED BEST                     
POTENTIAL FOR ANY ELEVATED PARCEL WILL BE FROM AROUND 800MB...                  
WITH THE POTENTIAL OF 400-800 J/KG CAPE... SO IF SOMETHING CAN BE               
KICKED OFF THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDER. SO... WILL                 
MAINTAIN THE VERY LOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST               
FOR THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.                  
UPDATES TO CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE MINOR... AND WILL               
SIMPLY REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
AVIATION CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL OVER THE UPCOMING 24 HOURS. ANY                   
CHANCE FOR A SHRA OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE AIRPORTS...                  
WITH ONLY A FEW MID HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. KSTC IS                 
SEEING SOME LIGHT FOG NOW... AND COULD CONTINUE TO SEE SOME MVFR                
VISIBILITIES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT OWING TO LIGHT WINDS               
AND SOME LIGHT RAIN WHICH FELL IN THAT VICINITY EARLIER TODAY.                  
KEAU COULD ALSO SEE A BIT OF FOG LATER TONIGHT... BUT DO NOT                    
ANTICIPATE ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD WITH DRIER AIR AND LOWER                     
DEWPOINTS FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH. THERE WILL BE A BIT OF                   
SHEAR IN THE BOTTOM FEW THOUSAND FEET... WITH A 25KT OR SO WIND                 
MAXIMA AROUND 2K FEET THROUGH 10Z OR SO... BUT THINGS DO NOT                    
APPEAR FOCUSED SUFFICIENTLY TO INCLUDED WIND SHEAR IN THE TAFS.                 
OTHERWISE... LOOK FOR LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND               
SATURDAY NIGHT.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LS/TRH                                                                          
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1139 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008                                                     
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
AVIATION CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL OVER THE UPCOMING 24 HOURS. ANY                   
CHANCE FOR A SHRA OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE AIRPORTS...                  
WITH ONLY A FEW MID HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. KSTC IS                 
SEEING SOME LIGHT FOG NOW... AND COULD CONTINUE TO SEE SOME MVFR                
VISIBILITIES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT OWING TO LIGHT WINDS               
AND SOME LIGHT RAIN WHICH FELL IN THAT VICINITY EARLIER TODAY.                  
KEAU COULD ALSO SEE A BIT OF FOG LATER TONIGHT... BUT DO NOT                    
ANTICIPATE ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD WITH DRIER AIR AND LOWER                     
DEWPOINTS FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH. THERE WILL BE A BIT OF                   
SHEAR IN THE BOTTOM FEW THOUSAND FEET... WITH A 25KT OR SO WIND                 
MAXIMA AROUND 2K FEET THROUGH 10Z OR SO... BUT THINGS DO NOT                    
APPEAR FOCUSED SUFFICIENTLY TO INCLUDED WIND SHEAR IN THE TAFS.                 
OTHERWISE... LOOK FOR LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND               
SATURDAY NIGHT.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 833 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008/                                             
UPDATE TO FORECAST WILL MAINLY BE TO UPDATE WORDING FOR THE                     
OVERNIGHT PERIOD... WITH MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.                 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEASTWARD... WITH                  
CONVECTION DISSIPATING AS DAYTIME INSTABILITY FADES. SOME ELEVATED              
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA                 
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS... ALTHOUGH THERE APPEARS TO BE VERY                
LIMITED FORCING TO GET ANY ELEVATED ACTIVITY GOING. HOWEVER...                  
WITH THE NAM... RUC... AND LOCAL LAPSWRF KEEPING SOME NEARLY                    
SATURATED RH IN THE 850-700MB LAYER THROUGH 12Z IT WOULD BE TOUGH               
TO RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA. THE BETTER FORCING... OWING TO               
FRONTOGENESIS AND THE ACTUAL 1000-850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE... IS                   
FARTHER NORTH NEAR WHERE THE STRONGER CONVECTION IN NORTHEAST                   
MINNESOTA WAS EARLIER IN THE EVENING. THIS DOES DROP                            
SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT... ALTHOUGH IT WEAKENS AND WITH THE                     
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZING... DO NOT BELIEVE IT WILL BE ABLE TO                 
KICK OFF ANY FURTHER ACTIVITY. KMPX 00Z RAOB SUGGESTED BEST                     
POTENTIAL FOR ANY ELEVATED PARCEL WILL BE FROM AROUND 800MB...                  
WITH THE POTENTIAL OF 400-800 J/KG CAPE... SO IF SOMETHING CAN BE               
KICKED OFF THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDER. SO... WILL                 
MAINTAIN THE VERY LOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST               
FOR THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.                  
UPDATES TO CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE MINOR... AND WILL               
SIMPLY REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TRH                                                                             
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
1137 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...THINGS HAVE REALLY CALMED DOWN AS OF MID/LATE EVENING.                
STILL THINK THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE                 
ADDED THIS TO THE ZONES/GRIDS. HAVE ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOG MENTION               
WITH A FEW PLACES SEEING SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS AS OF 11 PM.                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 819 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008/                         
UPDATE...THE STORMS HAVE FINALLY STARTED TO SHOW SOME SIGN OF                   
BREAKING UP AND HAVE WEAKENED SOMEWHAT AS OF 815 PM. THIS IS ABOUT              
ON TRACK WITH THE CURRENT THINKING OF STORMS DIMINISHING BETWEEN                
01Z AND 0130Z...AND DISSIPATING BETWEEN 02Z AND 03Z. THE STORMS                 
SEEM TO HAVE BEEN KICKED OFF IN AN AREA OF DRY MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR              
PER WATER VAPOR...WITH FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND                      
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE/LAPSE RATES. ALSO HELPED ALONG BY FAVORABLE               
EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH SUNSET...THE STORMS              
SHOULD DIMINISH NICELY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE                              
EVENING...ALTHOUGH WILL STILL CARRY ISOLATED MENTION THROUGH                    
MIDNIGHT. OTHER THAN THAT...ZONES/GRIDS APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE              
AND WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THEM FOR THE OVERNIGHT.                
EXPECT TO SEND ZFP AND UPDATED GRIDS BETWEEN 830 AND 9 PM. WE                   
WOULD GREATLY APPRECIATE CALLING ANY REPORTS INTO THE NWS THIS                  
EVENING.                                                                        
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 734 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008/                          
MESOSCALE UPDATE...THE SEVERE STORM ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY                 
HAD MAINTAINED ITSELF NICELY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. WITHIN THE                
PAST 15 MINUTES OR SO...IT STARTED TO EXHIBIT SOME SIGNS OF                     
DEVELOPING A HOOK ECHO...AND WE HAVE ISSUED A TORNADO WARNING.                  
OVER THE PAST FEW MINUTES...THE STORM HAD STARTED TO UNDERGO A                  
TRANSFORMATION YET AGAIN. THE STORM WAS MOVING THROUGH A SPARSELY               
POPULATED AREA...AND WE HAVE NOT HAD ANY REPORTS AS OF YET. STILL               
LOOKING LIKE A CHANCE OF SEVERE THROUGH 01Z...OR PERHAPS 0130Z...AND            
THEN DIMINISHING. MESOANALYSIS INDICATES SOME TORNADO                           
POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH THINK LCL LEVELS MAY BE A BIT HIGH. IF ANYONE              
HAS REPORTS IN THIS AREA...PLEASE RELAY THEM TO US AT THE NWS.                  
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008/                          
MESOSCALE UPDATE...THE STORM NEAR BASSWOOD LAKE HAD STRENGTHENED                
CONSIDERABLY AS OF 640 PM...WITH MAX DBZ OF AROUND 70 DBZ.                      
DEFINITELY NOT BAD FOR MID/LATE SEPTEMBER. FOR THE DAY...50 DBZ                 
AROUND 25-28K SHOULD BE SEVERE...BUT THIS PARTICULAR STORM HAD A                
50 DBZ HEIGHT OF AROUND 35K FEET. THE RUC PICKED UP ON THIS STORM               
ABSOLUTELY PHENOMENALLY...ALBEIT A BIT FURTHER WEST. THE RUC KEEPS              
THIS STUFF AROUND THROUGH AROUND 01Z...AND THEN TRIES TO DISSIPATE              
THE STORMS FROM 02-03Z. THIS THINKING SOUNDS GOOD WITH SUNSET                   
APPROACHING. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY YET DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND                 
WEST OF THIS AREA...ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SO WILL KEEP A                 
CLOSE EYE FOR NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT GIVEN SOME TCU DEVELOPMENT.                 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008/                          
UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED ZONES/GRIDS TO ADD ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS                 
THE ENTIRE REGION WITH FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. ONE              
SUCH STORM DEVELOPED NORTHWEST OF BASSWOOD LAKE...AND WAS MOVING                
E/SE. WILL MONITOR THIS STORM IN THE EVENT IT STRENGTHENS FURTHER               
WHEN IT ENTERS INTO NRN LAKE/NW COOK COUNTIES. RIGHT NOW MOST OF                
THE ENERGY WAS NORTH OF THE BORDER...BUT WILL SOON MOVE INTO THE                
CWA. STRONG WIND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COULD IGNITE A FEW                 
MORE STORMS ALONG THE FRONT THIS EVENING. MESOANALYSIS PAGE OF SPC              
INDICATES MUCAPE OF AROUND 2000 J/KG WITH LITTLE INHIBITION. STEEP              
LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE FRONT COULD LEAD TO                  
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IF THE STORMS ARE ABLE TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES.               
FIRST THOUGHTS ARE THAT THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW STORMS               
TO BECOME SEVERE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT WILL DIMINISH                    
RAPIDLY AS SUNSET APPROACHES. SUPERCELL COMPOSITE PARAMETER OF                  
BETWEEN 4 AND 8 OFF THE SPC WEBSITE...SO WILL BE TAKING THE THREAT              
VERY SERIOUSLY THIS EVENING.                                                    
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...LATEST KDLH RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF SCATTERED                
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN               
AND PINE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH                
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIGGING SE ACROSS THE AREA...PRECEDING                 
THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS JUST ENTERING THE NW CORNER OF OUR CWA.                 
THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY THIS                 
EVENING...AND END BY MIDNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST              
ACROSS OUR FCST AREA TONIGHT...EXITING TO THE SOUTH OF THE                      
NORTHLAND LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL THEN BUILD               
SOUTH OVER THE CWA TOMORROW...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRY              
CONDITIONS.                                                                     
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OF OUR CWA ON                  
SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL               
IN TURN INITIATE WAA ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AS MOISTURE AND                  
TEMPS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...THE AIRMASS WILL DESTABILIZE                   
SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PROPAGATE ACROSS                
OUR CWA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...TAPPING THIS INCREASING                     
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...AND BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS                
AND STORMS TO OUR FCST AREA.                                                    
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP 10 TO 20 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND               
BETWEEN TODAY TO TOMORROW. AS WINDS TURN OUT OF THE                             
NORTHEAST...THE COOLER TEMPS WILL ESPECIALLY BE NOTICEABLE ALONG                
THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE.                                                    
AVIATION...ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA WILL AFFECT MAINLY KDLH AND KHYR                   
THROUGH 21-23Z TIME FRAME AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE              
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH NE MN             
THIS EVENING AND NW WI OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW               
AFTER FROPA. BY 12Z SATURDAY...THE WIND WILL SWING AROUND TO THE NE             
AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA BUILDS INTO THE AREA.                              
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  50  58  44  62 /  20  10  10  20                                           
INL  38  58  39  68 /  10  10  10  20                                           
BRD  50  68  48  73 /  10  10  10  10                                           
HYR  50  66  41  69 /  20  10  10  20                                           
ASX  51  59  43  65 /  20  10  10  20                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
DAP                                                                             
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY                                               
929 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL FINALLY GIVE WAY TO A WEAK COLD FRONT            
LATE SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND               
MONDAY...THEN ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE                
AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW MAY APPROACH THE                
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS VERY STABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH STRONG                       
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS WELL. LOW LEVEL              
MOISTURE BELOW THE INVERSION SEEN ON SOUNDING AND ACARS/TAMDAR                  
PROFILES PRODUCING STRATUS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...BUT SPILLING UP               
INTO QUEENS AND NASSAU. DUE TO HEATING...FEEL THAT RUC AND NAM                  
SOUNDINGS ARE CORRECT IN MIXING THESE CLOUDS OUT TO SCATTERED.                  
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL                 
WARM A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY DUE TO               
WEAKER EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...AND THUS DEEPER MIXED LAYER.                   
MOS/LAV NUMBERS CONTINUE TO LOOK GOOD.                                          
SEE TIDE SECTION BELOW FOR THE MINOR COASTAL FLOOD CONCERN.                     
MODERATE RIPS AT THE OCEAN BEACHES. SEE MARINE SECTION.                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...                               
AS THE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE AREA AND WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM               
THE NORTHWEST...LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL END. AS SUCH...SKIES               
WILL REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT.                                                      
UPPER TROUGH THAT REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS                
EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK FRONT BETWEEN               
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND NEXT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE UP IN CENTRAL                 
CANADA WILL APPROACH THE REGION. THIS WILL OCCUR LATER SUNDAY AND               
SUNDAY NIGHT. AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF                
FRONT...AND WEAK FORCING COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR                    
SPRINKLE. BEST TIME FOR ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO                
EARLY MONDAY. THEN RIDGE PREDOMINATES LATER MONDAY...AND ATMOSPHERE             
DRIES OUT QUICKLY.                                                              
TEMPS...SEASONABLE NIGHT TONIGHT...THEN WARMER AIR SWEEPS IN AHEAD              
OF SFC FRONT SUNDAY. 950 HPA TEMPS WARM FROM 12-13C SATURDAY                    
(EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW) TO 18-19C SUNDAY.                                     
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER SUNDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP READINGS A TAD HIGHER               
THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...BUT MONDAY SHOULD BE QUITE COOL AS CLOUDS                
LINGER AND NORTHEAST FLOW SETS UP ONCE AGAIN.                                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                     
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER            
THROUGH AT LEAST THU. PERSISTENT NE-E CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE               
PERIOD AS THE HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED NORTH OF THE AREA.                          
THERE CONTINUES TO MODEL UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW CLOSE A LOW OFF THE              
SE COAST WILL APPROACH IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY TIME              
FRAME. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT RIDGING WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN              
PLACE DURING THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN A MORE EASTERLY TRACK OF THE             
SURFACE LOW. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS SURFACE LOW...HAVE                
KEPT POPS LOW FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                   
OVERALL...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.                                               
PAN-CAKE STRATO-CU DUE TO SURFACE HEATING WILL BE BROKEN AT TIMES               
THIS AM ON LONG ISLAND. BASES OF 025 EARLY RISE BY THIS AFTERNOON.              
WINDS ARE TRICKY AS THE REGION IS IN A TUG OF WAR BETWEEN A RIDGE               
OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT RUNS ALONG AND JUST INSIDE OF THE I-95                    
CORRIDOR...AND OFFSHORE LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC. WILL KEEP A GENERAL              
NE-E FLOW ACROSS THE AREA....AS I EXPECT THE RIDGE AXIS TO REMAIN               
TO OUR NORTH...WITH JUST ENOUGH INFLUENCE FROM THE OFFSHORE LOW TO              
KEEP THE FLOW FROM TURNING MORE ONSHORE. SPEEDS STAY LESS THAN 10               
KT.                                                                             
NYC METRO WINDS...LGA EXPECTED TO HOLD ITS TYPICAL NE                           
DIRECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHILE JFK FLIPS OVER TO SOUTHERLY               
SEA BREEZE. KEWR MAY BE MORE VARIABLE...BUT FORECASTING A MORE                  
SOUTHERLY FLOW BASED ON LATEST DATA AND COLLABORATION WITH ZNY.                 
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF DIRECTION/RUNWAY CONFIG CHANGE AT                   
KEWR.                                                                           
THEREAFTER...PRESSURE PATTERN...AND AS A RESULT WINDS...BECOME                  
LIGHT AND ERRATIC THIS EVENING...BEFORE A BIT BETTER DEFINED                    
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT A LIGHTER              
ONSHORE FLOW AT SEA BREEZE TERMINALS WITH VRB AROUND 5 KT                       
ELSEWHERE FROM 23-00Z THROUGH 03-05Z.                                           
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HI PRES OVER THE REGION              
THROUGH WED WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. A WEAK CDFNT SUN NIGHT/MON              
TIME FRAME. ATTM FRONT LOOKS DRY WITH A CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS AT                 
TIMES WITH NELY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
THE AREA REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN INLAND RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE               
AND AN OFFSHORE LOW EAST OF THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL KEEP A FAIRLY              
PERSISTENT NE-E FLOW IN PLACE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY                 
DIMINISH TODAY...BUT SEAS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS INTO               
SUN. HAVE UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH III...BUT WILL KEEP 4 TO 6 FT ON OCEAN             
WATERS TODAY AND 3 TO 5 FT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.                                 
THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS...A WEAK EASTERLY                
SWELL AND LARGE BREAKING WAVES WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP            
CURRENTS ALONG NEW YORK ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.                                 
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS IS LIKELY TO RETURN TO THE                 
OCEAN WATERS AFTER COLD FROPA ON MON...AS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN                   
BECOMES SANDWICHED BETWEEN ANOTHER STRONG INLAND HIGH...AND A                   
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WITH A PERSISTENT            
NE-E FLOW OVER THE WATERS KEEPING MAX OCEAN SEAS 5+ FEET.                       
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED.                                               
&&                                                                              
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...                                                      
LATEST DATA SHOWING WATER LEVELS ARE BETWEEN 0 AND 0.75 FT ABOVE                
ASTRONOMICAL. NO PROBLEMS FORESEEN - THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO                    
MONITOR.                                                                        
THE TIDE CYCLE OF CONCERN IS MIDDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE...WHICH IS                  
THE HIGHER OF THE TWO DAILY HIGH TIDES. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES REMAIN               
HIGH...AND A DEPARTURE OF ONLY ABOUT 1.0 FT IS NEEDED TO REACH                  
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS. FEEL THAT WE WILL FALL SHORT OF              
THIS TODAY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF A MORE NORTHEAST FLOW THIS                 
MORNING AND A DECREASING WIND SPEED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE                  
DEPARTURES FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE OVERNIGHT WERE LESS THAN                     
YESTERDAY...AND EXPECT THE DECREASING DEPARTURE THEME TO CONTINUE.              
MOST LOCALES WILL REMAIN SAFELY BELOW (0.5 FT OR MORE) MINOR                    
BENCHMARKS. HOWEVER...WE COULD COME CLOSE IN THE NASSAU SOUTH SHORE             
BACK BAYS.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
NJ...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY          
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.                                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...PW                                                                   
NEAR TERM...JST/PW                                                              
SHORT TERM...PW                                                                 
LONG TERM...MAS                                                                 
AVIATION...JST                                                                  
MARINE...                                                                       
HYDROLOGY...                                                                    
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...                                                       
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
1025 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2008                                                     
.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TODAY/...UPDATED                                     
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY RESTS ON HOW STRONG IS THE CAP BETWEEN 650              
AND 750 MB. 12Z RUC/06Z NAM WOULD SUGGEST THAT ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS            
PRESENT ALONG WITH THE APPROACHING VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED               
WITH SOME SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN MIDDLE TN FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED OR               
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDER. THIS CAP IN THE 12Z NAM IS                  
SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE 06Z RUN BUT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO                  
OVERCOME IT FOR POSSIBLE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. 06Z GFS SHOWS A MORE             
ROBUST CAP AND LESS MOISTURE WHILE 12Z BNA SOUNDING SHOWED MORE AND             
DEEPER MOISTURE THAN THIS MODEL INDICATED. GIVEN THAT WE SHOW A                 
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR OUR WEST PORTION WHILE NEARBY LOCATIONS DO NOT            
INDICATE THAT MUCH CHANCE CANNOT JUSTIFY INCREASING POPS...BUT WILL             
MONITOR FOR UPDATE. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE                
MID/UPPER 70S SO LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES 2-3 DEGREES. SHOULD HAVE AN           
EARLIER START TO CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ALONG WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM            
DECAYING SHOWERS FROM TN TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM                
YESTERDAYS VALUES.                                                              
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                          
/TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/                                                          
EARLY THIS MORNING...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF                 
MEXICO EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WELL TO THE NORTH...RATHER               
FAST WESTERLIES WERE GENERALLY NORTH OF THE US CANADIAN BORDER WITH A           
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE JAMES BAY/HUDSON BAY REGION DOWN INTO                 
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER THE MID MS                      
VALLEY...NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OH AND MS RIVERS. AT THE SFC...AN           
EXPANSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS SOUTH INTO THE APPALACHIANS            
FROM THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.                                            
THROUGH SUNDAY...THE WEAK CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO               
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TO THE WEST OF THE AREA LARGELY AND THEN               
DAMPEN OUT TO END THE PERIOD. IN FACT...THIS WILL LEAD TO RISING HEIGHTS        
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...AND BOTH THE GFS AND NAM INDICATE SW/V               
UPPER RIDGING WORKING BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. A WEAK BOUNDARY           
WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON SUN NIGHT INTO           
MONDAY...AS THE NEXT REINFORCING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WORKS INTO               
EASTERN/CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IN CONCERT WITH THE           
RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY.                              
REGIONAL SFC OBSERVATIONS REVEAL HIGHER DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY NEAR AND            
WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR...OR GENERALLY CLOSER TO THE UPPER           
LEVEL SYSTEM. LOW LEVEL FLOW FURTHER EAST IS SOUTHEAST OR DOWNSLOPE...          
THOUGH RECENT VWP INDICATES IT IS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY. THE FINER            
RESOLUTION NAM AS WELL AS THE 21Z SREF GENERALLY INDICATE THAT THE              
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL WEAKEN WITH MORE SOUTHERLY TO WEAK WESTERLY FLOW            
OVER THE WESTERN AREAS...ALLOWING FOR LIMITED MOISTURE ADVECTION.               
THEN NAM AND SREF DEVELOP A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE/AREA OF                 
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE OH RIVER AND EXTENDING EAST IN THE BLUEGRASS               
REGION. WITH BETTER MOISTURE IN PLACE AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETTER             
OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES...A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS              
AFTERNOON OVER THIS REGION AS CAPPING WILL BE WEAKER THERE CLOSER TO            
THE CLOSED LOW THAN IN AREAS FURTHER TO THE EAST. AREAS IN OR NEAR              
WHERE SHOWERS OCCURRED ON FRI EVENING CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR                   
POSSIBLE VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS ON SAT DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING               
BOUNDARIES...BUT KEPT THESE AREAS OF FAR SE KY DRY FOR NOW AS THEY              
APPEAR TO BE CAPPED. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL WANE WITH THE LOSS OF          
DAYTIME HEATING...BUT THE CAP AGAIN APPEARS AS IF IT WILL BE WEAKER             
ON SUN OVER THE FAR SW COUNTIES NEAR LAKE CUMBERLAND AND AGAIN                  
INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THESE AREAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE              
PERIOD WILL BE DRY AS HEIGHTS RISE. ANY MOISTURE FROM THE DYING                 
BOUNDARY ON MON SHOULD ONLY LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SHALLOW AFTERNOON            
CU OVER NE KY.                                                                  
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONTINUES TO HAVE AN EFFECT           
AND LOZ AND JKL AGAIN VERIFIED WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR FRI MAX T           
AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE FOR MAX T THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AT BOTH            
SITES. GUIDANCE AT SME WAS GENERALLY FOLLOWED...THOUGH WITH THE RIDGE           
BUILDING IN ON MON...THE WARMER MAV MAX TEMP APPEARED IN ORDER.                 
OTHERWISE...RIDGE/VALLEY TEMP SPLITS AS WELL AS PATCHY FOG BETWEEN 6Z           
AND 13Z EACH NIGHT AND EARLY EACH MORNING WILL CONTINUE. MAV GUIDANCE           
AND NAM DATA BOTH INDICATE FALLING DEWPOINTS ON SUN AS NE FLOW USHERS           
IN SOME DRIER AIR. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE COOLEST VALLEY                  
READINGS DURING THE PERIOD ON MON AM...WHERE THE NORMALLY COLD SPOTS            
SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S.                                                 
.LONG TERM.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/                                      
FOR THE EXTENDED...THE LONGWAVE PATTERN HOLDS LITTLE HOPE FOR PCPN              
MAKING INTO EAST KENTUCKY AS THE RIDGE...MENTIONED ABOVE...TILTS                
NORTHEASTWARD WHILE THE WESTERN TROUGH PLOWS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA             
AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE UPPER PATTERN THUS FLATTENS OUT...              
RIDGING WILL HOLD ON STRONG OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS THE NATION WHILE           
THE WESTERLIES RACE BY WELL TO THE NORTH. THE ECMWF FROM 00Z/19 WAS             
FOLLOWED CLOSEST GIVEN ITS RECENT PERFORMANCE AND REASONABLE                    
SOLUTION. ONE INTERESTING ASPECT OF IT/S SOLUTION...THOUGH ONE NOT SO           
MUCH RESOLVED IN THE GFS...WAS THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LOW OFF              
THE SOUTHEAST COAST FROM MIDWEEK ON. THIS APPEARS TO FURTHER AMPLIFY            
THE RIDGE TO ITS WEST...HAMMERING HOME THE IDEA OF A DRY EXTENDED FOR           
OUR AREA. A QUICK PEEK AT THE 12Z ECMWF SEES IT CONTINUING THIS                 
TREND.                                                                          
FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...IT IS AS IF THE WEATHER PATTERN IS COMING UP             
WITH NEW WAYS TO KEEP EAST KENTUCKY DRY. RIDGING ALOFT WILL MAKE ANY            
FRONT THAT MANAGES TO COME THROUGH HERE A DRY PASSAGE...AN UPPER                
LOW...AND ITS WEAK SFC REFLECTION...TO THE WEST WILL FALL APART                 
BEFORE GETTING CLOSE ENOUGH TO GIVE US RAIN...AND FINALLY A                     
POTENTIAL EAST COAST SYSTEM LATE IN THE PERIOD WILL ONLY SERVE TO               
KEEP OUR AREA IN SUBSIDENCE WHILE STRENGTHENING THE UPPER RIDGING               
JUST OFF TO OUR WEST. IN THIS REGIME...AM LOATH TO FORECAST ANY PCPN.           
AS A RESULT...A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WAS CARRIED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH            
ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR THE VAGARIES OF DRY FRONTS AND VARIOUS HIGH                
PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH. THE ONLY HOPE I SEE FOR MUCH NEEDED           
RAIN IS THE SEASONAL EXPECTATION OF THE WESTERLIES EVENTUALLY                   
PUSHING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO AFFECT US...BEYOND THE EXTENDED. UNTIL              
THAT HAPPENS THOUGH...DRY AND SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL                 
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST.                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../12Z TO 12Z/                                                        
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE                      
PERIOD...WITH ONLY SOME OPAQUE HIGH CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL HIGHER                
BASED CU AT AROUND 6K FEET TRAVERSING THE AREA. A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO           
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE INTERSTATE 75 AND 64 CORRIDORS BETWEEN 18             
AND 22Z...HOWEVER GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THESE...WILL NOT INCLUDE         
MENTION AT SME AND LOZ.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JP/GV                                                              
LONG TERM....GREIF                                                              
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN                                                            
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
1033 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND                  
RESULTING IN COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.             
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/...                                          
AS OF 1030 AM SATURDAY...                                                       
DIFFICULT CLOUD AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON AS                   
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM NEAR AND               
JUST WEST OF RZZ...THROUGH THE TRIANGLE...TO AROUND FAYETTEVILLE...             
WITH CONSIDERABLE BREAKS TOWARD ROCKY MOUNT AND MOSTLY SUNNY                    
CONDITIONS TOWARD THE WEST. WHILE THE KGSO SOUNDING WAS DRY WITH                
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UNDER A HALF INCH...THE KMHX SOUNDING                 
HAD PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER AN INCH MOSTLY DUE TO AMPLE                  
MOISTURE BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 750MB. IN THE                  
NORTHEAST FLOW...OBVIOUSLY SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WAS SPREADING                  
WEST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...BUT WITH NUMEROUS BREAKS PARTICULARLY                
ALONG INTERSTATE 95. THE RUC WAS NOT HANDLING THE LOW-LEVEL                     
MOISTURE VERY WELL...BUT THE NAM WAS A LITTLE BETTER...SHOWING                  
FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON WIDESPREAD...HIGH 925MB MOISTURE...AND BY               
21Z ONLY A THIN RIBBON OF 925MB MOISTURE FROM ACROSS THE NORTHERN               
COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH THE TRIANGLE.                                             
PROBABLY THE BEST FORECAST FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES IS                     
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS...THOUGH THINK WITH SOME MIXING SKIES WILL                  
TREND TOWARD PARTLY SUNNY ESPECIALLY SINCE THERE WERE ALREADY                   
BREAKS NOTED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY. IN WESTERN ZONES...THE NAM WAS ON              
TARGET WITH A BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE TOWARD THE FAR EASTERN                     
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW OVER MISSOURI...AND SCATTERED CLOUDS                 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHOULD MOVE EAST WITH THE EXPECTATION BEING                
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS THERE FOR THE BULK OF THE AFTERNOON.                    
LOWERED TEMPERATURES IN MOST PLACES CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES                   
AROUND A CATEGORY ANTICIPATING MORE CLOUDS...THOUGH THERE WILL BE               
LOCAL AREAS IN ZONES THAT WILL CERTAINLY REACH THE HIGHER END OF                
THE TEMPERATURE RANGE DUE TO BREAKS. IN FULL SUN...1000-850MB                   
THICKNESSES WOULD SUPPORT NEAR 75...WHICH IS IN CONCERT WITH THE                
LAV AND BLEND OF MOS. GRADIENT WILL RELAX SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON...            
LEAVING WINDS FROM AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH EVEN WITH MIXING. THANKS TO              
AKQ...ILM...AND MHX FOR COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.                             
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...                                   
AS OF 325 AM SATURDAY...                                                        
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY:                                                             
AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW INCREASES FROM THE WEST... THERE WILL BE SOME               
INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. THE SURFACE FLOW                   
BECOMES SOMEWHAT RELAXED AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SETTLE OVER CENTRAL            
NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT CLOUDS SHOULD AID IN HOLDING LOWS              
IN THE MID 50S. LESS CLOUDINESS SUNDAY WILL ALLOW THE MERCURY TO                
INCH UP A COUPLE DEGREES AS THICKNESSES INCREASE OVER THE REGION.               
HIGHS WILL IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80.                                         
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT:                                              
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA FOR THE FIRST OF            
THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL WORK ITS             
WAY EAST. THE MAIN CHANGES WE WILL EXPERIENCE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN            
HIGHS MONDAY AS THICKNESSES RANGE IN THE 1390 TO 1395 RANGE... THEY             
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH THE             
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN... INCREASES WINDS ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST.              
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE I THE UPPER 50S AND AROUND 60MONDAY                   
NIGHT.A DRY FORECAST WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE PERIOD.                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                          
AS OF 345 AM SATURDAY...                                                        
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY ON MAINTAINING                  
STRONG SFC RIDGING INTO NORTH CAROLINA FROM A PARENT HIGH OVER NEW              
ENGLAND. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE REGION WITH A COOL                   
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. WHILE PERIODS OF STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS IS             
POSSIBLE IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...THERE APPEAR TO BE NO LIFTING                
MECHANISMS TO GENERATE ANY PRECIPITATION AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL              
BE MOVING THROUGH DURING THIS TIME. THEREFORE...A DRY FORECAST WILL             
PREVAIL WITH TEMPS CONTINUING TO BE VERY COMFORTABLE. HIGHS IN THE              
MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.                              
MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIFFER BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE IS                
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING POTENTIAL SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER              
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE PIECES IN PLACE TO                
SUPPORT A LOW DEVELOPING. FIRST...THERE WILL BE A LINGERING                     
BAROCLINIC ZONE POSITIONED FAIRLY NEAR THE GULF STREAM DUE TO THE               
PERSISTENT SFC RIDGING INLAND OVER THE CAROLINAS. SECONDLY...MOST               
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A VORTICITY MAX BECOMES SEPARATED FROM A DEEP            
TROUGH MOVING AWAY FROM THE NORTHEAST STATES AND EASTERN CANADA.                
THIS PIECE OF ENERGY LINGERS A FEW HUNDRED MILES OFF OF THE CAROLINA            
COASTS WHILE A 70-80 KT SUBTROPICAL JET BEGINS TO NOSE IN FROM THE              
SOUTHWEST. WHILE MOST GUIDANCE DEVELOPS A LOW IN RESPONSE TO ALL OF             
THE ABOVE...THE EXACT TIMING OF THE DEVELOPMENT AND THE EVENTUAL LOW            
TRACK ARE VERY MUCH UP IN THE AIR. THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS THE LEAST             
AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPMENT...BUT IS COUNTERED BY SEVERAL OF ITS                
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WHICH LEANS TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF A LOW                 
DEVELOPING OFF THE NC COAST BY FRIDAY. THE CANADIAN ACTUALLY                    
RETROGRADES THE LOW INTO SOUTH CAROLINA BY FRIDAY. THE CURRENT                  
FORECAST HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK IN THE                  
EASTERN ZONES AND SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE THEM GIVEN THE                        
UNCERTAINTY. WILL ALSO TREND TEMPS CLOSE TO CLIMO GIVEN THE                     
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF SFC RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST.             
LOOKING AT GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS AND UPPER 50S FOR               
LOWS.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                   
AS OF 1030 AM SATURDAY...                                                       
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE              
MORNING INVOF RDU/RWI/FAY...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE PERIODS WHERE               
SKIES BRIEFLY SCATTER OUT. BY MIDDAY...EXPECT A MORE WIDESPREAD                 
STRATOCUMULUS DECK TO DEVELOP DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. CIGS SHOULD               
GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR BY MID AFTERNOON...BUT MVFR CONDITIONS MAY                
LAST MUCH OF THE DAY AT RDU/FAY/RWI. FURTHER WEST AT INT/GSO...LOW              
LEVEL MOISTURE NOT AS ABUNDANT SO ONLY ANTICIPATING SCATTERED                   
STRATOCU WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING. NORTHEAST                     
WINDS AROUND 10 KT WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. SOME GUSTS OF              
15-18KT POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET MIXES OUT AND                
SOME OF THOSE HIGHER WINDS ARE TRANSPORTED TO THE SFC.                          
THE STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING WITH VFR                      
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS AND DRIES OUT BY              
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...SO CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATING ANY CEILING                
OR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONCERNS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST                 
THROUGH MIDWEEK...EXCEPT FOR SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE TUESDAY                  
MORNING.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...RHJ                                                                  
NEAR TERM...DJF                                                                 
SHORT TERM...RHJ                                                                
LONG TERM...JFB                                                                 
AVIATION...DJF/JFB                                                              
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
1042 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
NO REAL CHANGES TO PRIOR THINKING REGARDING AFTN/EVE STORM                      
CHANCES. UPDATED FORECAST OUT TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING AND TWEAK               
RAIN CHANCES A BIT. AT 15Z...COLD FRONT RUNNING FROM                            
WAUSAU/MEDFORD AREAS WEST TO SRN TC METRO TO REDWOOD FALLS/NEW ULM              
MN AREAS. LEADING ACCAS BAND ON EDGE OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY HAS               
PUT ON A NICE VIRGA SHOW AS IT HAS SAGGED SOUTH INTO NERN IA/SWRN               
WI THIS MORNING. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO AFTN/EVE ON COVERAGE               
OF SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG SLOWLY SAGGING COLD FRONT...WHICH WON`T                 
MOVE TOO MUCH MORE SOUTHWARD. LATEST RUNS OF VERY HI-RES SHORT                  
TERM GUIDANCE /RUC13...LOCALLY RUN RUC13-BASED ARW-WRF...AND GFS-BASED          
ARW-WRF/ ALL ARE VERY STINGY ON SHRA/STORM DEVELOPMENT...WHILE 20.12Z           
RUN OF NAM-WRF /NMM/ REALLY RAMPED THINGS UP...WHICH ALIGNS WELL WITH           
NMM-BASED SPC WRF. NSSL WRF LIES IN BETWEEN WITH SCT COVERAGE                   
ALONG THE LENGTH OF FRONT DEVELOPING MOSTLY IN 21-00Z TIMEFRAME.                
CONTINUITY/SREF FAVORS SOMETHING LESS THAN RECENT NAM-WRF /NMM/ BUT             
PROBABLY MORE ROBUST THAN RUC13 AND OTHER HI-RES RUNS THIS                      
MORNING. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OVER 1000 J/KG/ VIA STEEP               
LAPSE RATE AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...WHILE WEAK...SHOULD PROVE                  
SUFFICIENT FOR INITIATION AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE BREACHED BY MID               
AFTN. NO SHEAR...IN FACT...WINDS ONLY 7-10KFT UP ARE NIL...WITH                 
RIDGING BUILDING IN. STORMS WILL HAVE VERY SLOW SOUTHWARD DRIFT. THUS...LARGE   
SCALE DOESN/T SUPPORT HIGHER RAIN CHANCES RIGHT NOW. BEST FRONTAL               
PUSH DOES SEEM TO BE EAST OF MS RIVER SO DID INCREASE RAIN CHANCES              
THERE A BIT. INITIAL UPDRAFTS MAY BE ROBUST GIVEN CAPE IS                       
AMPLE...BUT STORMS TO BE VERY AIRMASS IN NATURE. MAY SEE A PEA                  
HAIL REPORT BUT NO SVR STILL EXPECTED.                                          
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BINAU                                                                           
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
307 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
307 PM CDT                                                                      
MAIN SHORT TERM ISSUE IS WITH PRECIP CHANCES INTO THIS EVENING                  
WITH WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW CURRENTLY VICINITY KSTL. WEAK SPEED                 
MAX/SHEARED VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING INTO SOUTHERN CWA THIS                    
AFTERNOON...ATOP WEAKLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WHERE SPC/RUC MESO              
DATE INDICATES MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND NO CIN. LOW LEVEL WIND              
FIELD RATHER WEAK ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH AFTERNOON VIS                        
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AREA OF ORGANIZED WEAK LOW LEVEL                    
CONVERGENCE ROUGHLY ALONG AN AXIS FROM KPIA...KBMI TO KCMI WITH                 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING                       
NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WFO CHICAGO CWA.                  
EXPECT THAT THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGHLY DIURNAL IN                  
NATURE AND WILL FADE RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING...THOUGH WILL                  
LIKELY HAVE TO HAVE A MENTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDER FOR AT               
LEAST SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNSET. A COUPLE              
OF THE STRONGEST CELLS HAVE SHOWN WEAK HAIL SPIKES IN REFLECTIVITY              
DATA THIS AFTERNOON...AND SLOW CELL MOVEMENT TO THE NORTH AT 5 MPH              
OR LESS MAY ALLOW BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...THOUGH ACTIVITY SHOULD                
WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION BY EARLY EVENING.                                
FARTHER NORTH...COLD FRONT SAGGING THROUGH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS               
AFTERNOON PROGGED TO ENTER THE FORECAST AREA LATE                               
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SQUEEZE OUT PRECIP                        
ALONG/AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN WI/LM                 
AND INTO NORTHERN IL...THOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE                    
CURRENTLY FAIRLY WEAK AHEAD OF FRONT AND RUC ANALYSIS DEPICTS                   
75-150 J/KG OF CIN. ANY CONVECTION ALONG FRONT ALSO EXPECTED TO BE              
HIGHLY DIURNAL WITH BEST DEEPER LAYER FORCING WELL TO THE NORTH                 
WITH UPPER WAVE OVER ONTARIO AND FAR NORTHERN LAKES. TIMING OF                  
FRONT WELL AFTER SUNSET SUGGESTS MINIMAL PRECIP THREAT WITH FRONT.              
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION REMAINS AN ISSUE ON SUNDAY...AS              
UPPER CIRCULATION FORECAST TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH/NORTHWEST AND                  
WEAKEN AS IT MERGES WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY            
PROPAGATING THROUGH CENTRAL ROCKIES. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE                
WEAK VORTICITY ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING UPPER CIRCULATION            
AS WELL AS SIMILAR LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY OF AROUND 1000 J/KG AND NO             
CIN. IN ADDITION...FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHERN             
CWA WHICH PERHAPS WILL PROVIDE SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FOCUS FOR              
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL CARRY SOME             
LOW CHANCE AFTERNOON POPS MAINLY WEST/SOUTH PARTS OF CWA SUNDAY                 
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
UPPER WAVE BECOMES FULLY INGESTED INTO NORTHERN STREAM SUNDAY                   
NIGHT/MONDAY AND LIFTS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND BUILDING               
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LOCATED ACROSS GREAT LAKES REGION. LARGER                  
SCALE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN                 
PLAINS INDUCES STRONGER LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AND FOCUS FOR                     
PRECIPITATION OFF TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY AND MONDAY               
NIGHT. SHORT WAVE THEN LIFTS NORTH EAST ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST                    
TUESDAY AS IT BUMPS UP AGAINST GREAT LAKES UPPER RIDGE...WITH                   
WEAKENING LOW LEVEL COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN               
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. 12Z ECMWF A LITTLE SLOWER THAN                
THE 12Z GFS WITH FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP THREAT...WITH SLOWER               
SOLUTION ALSO FAVORED BY SREF AND CANADIAN GEM AND HAVE FOLLOWED                
SLOWER TREND IN THIS REGARD. FRONT MOVES IN DURING THE DAY                      
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH AS UPPER WAVE LIFTS WELL NORTH OF FORECAST AREA              
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST FRONT MAKES LITTLE PROGRESS               
ACROSS FORECAST AREA. UPPER FLOW BEHIND THIS WAVE PROGGED TO                    
BECOME MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES WITH ANOTHER                  
SPEED MAX/TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY EARLY                    
THURSDAY WHICH AGAIN INDUCES SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS                    
PLAINS AND WASHES OUT FRONT OR LIFTS IT NORTH OF FORECAST AREA                  
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WITH THIS SCENARIO IN MIND WILL                 
CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST/WEST PORTIONS OF CWA              
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN DRY THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS FOCUS FOR               
PRECIP SHIFTS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AGAIN. SIMILAR TO SYSTEM               
WEDNESDAY...MAIN SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH IN CANADA...WITH                 
WEAK COLD FRONT SAGGING INTO FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR                 
SATURDAY. HAVE KEPT POPS JUST NORTH OF FORECAST AREA DURING THE                 
PERIOD WITH RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE IN ACTUAL FRONTAL TIMING BY               
DAY 7.                                                                          
AS FOR TEMPS...GUIDANCE MAX/MIN TEMP VALUES FAIRLY SIMILAR BETWEEN              
FWC/MAV/MET IN SHORT TERM AND GENERALLY FOLLOWED. MEX/HPC NUMBERS               
ACCEPTED IN LONGER RANGE WITH SYSTEMS MAINLY PASSING NORTH OF                   
FORECAST AREA AND SOUTHERLY FLOW MAKING FOR TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL IN               
EXTENDED FORECAST...UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 FOR THE MOST PART.                      
RATZER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
18Z TAFS...MAIN CONCERN FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE WILL CENTER ON                 
WINDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NRN IL/IN REMAINS QUITE WEAK                  
BETWEEN A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL              
LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. WILL START OUT WINDS LGT/VRBL AT                
ALL SITES...WHICH IS REFLECTIVE OF THE WEAK GRADIENT AND                        
REPRESENTATIVE OF CURRENT METARS. EXPECT A WEAK LAKE BREEZE TO                  
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS AMPLE SUNSHINE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR                     
SKIES...JUST FEW CU AND SCT CI...WILL ENHANCE THE DIFFERENTIAL                  
HEATING BETWEEN LAND AND WATER. IT IS STILL QUESTIONABLE WHETHER                
THE LAKE BREEZE BNDRY WILL PENETRATE INLAND FAR ENOUGH TO MOVE                  
THROUGH MDW/ORD...SO WILL KEEP THEM SELY THROUGH THE LATE                       
AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT ANY LAKE BREEZE TO DISSIPATE AT                         
SUNSET...AND WINDS WILL RETURN TO REFLECTIVE OF THE SYNOPTIC                    
FLOW...WHICH SHOULD BE MORE SWLY.                                               
THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE                    
NORTH. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH                  
INTO NRN IL SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO WILL DELAY THE WIND SHIFT               
TO NELY UNTIL 08Z. HAVE MAINTAINED THE POSSIBILITY OF BR FORMATION              
FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. GIVEN THAT THE AIRMASS TRANSFORMATION              
WITH THE FROPA WILL BE SLOW...EXPECT THAT THE COOLING ASSOCIATED                
WITH THE FROPA AND THE MOISTURE LEVELS CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL                  
LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD BR DEVELOPMENT THAN WAS OBSERVED THIS                   
MORNING.                                                                        
GIVEN THE EARLY MORNING TIMING OF FROPA...FEEL THAT THERE IS                    
LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THERE MAY BE              
SOME CONCERN WITH SOME SHRA DEVELOPING TOWARD THE END OF THE                    
PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM THE                 
SOUTH. CURRENT INDICATIONS LOOK LIKE ANY PCPN ASSD WITH THIS                    
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE TERMINALS...BUT THIS WILL              
NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR LATER UPDATES.                                         
KREIN                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
230 PM...A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH DOWN THE LENGTH OF LAKE                     
MICHIGAN WILL REACH THE SOUTH TIP OF THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT. IN THE              
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS WILL TURN NLY-NELY AN INCREASE              
TO 15-25KT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...OVER                 
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL SPREAD               
EAST OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND THE EASTERN LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AS A               
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS                  
TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS...REACHING THE                   
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.                                  
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
239 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
1221 PM CDT                                                                     
BRIEF AFTERNOON UPDATE TO FORECAST GRIDS/ZFP.                                   
LOCAL RADAR DEPICTS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING               
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ON NORTHERN                      
PERIPHERY OF CUT OFF UPPER LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN IL. RUC/SPC                      
MESOANALYSIS PRODUCTS INDICATE AIRMASS HAS BECOME WEAKLY UNSTABLE               
WITH MLCAPES 500-1000 J/KG WITH LITTLE/NO CIN. SOME CU                          
CONGESTUS/TCU TRYING TO FORM OUT THE WFO WINDOW...THOUGH CURRENTLY              
APPEARS AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE SCATTERED RW/TRW WILL BE FAR SOUTH              
COUNTIES ALONG ILX CWA BORDER...WHERE WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE                
IS A LITTLE MORE PRONOUNCED THAN IN THE LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND FIELD               
FARTHER NORTH. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE TO GOING FORECAST FOR                    
REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON HOURS.                                                   
RATZER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
18Z TAFS...MAIN CONCERN FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE WILL CENTER ON                 
WINDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NRN IL/IN REMAINS QUITE WEAK                  
BETWEEN A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL              
LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. WILL START OUT WINDS LGT/VRBL AT                
ALL SITES...WHICH IS REFLECTIVE OF THE WEAK GRADIENT AND                        
REPRESENTATIVE OF CURRENT METARS. EXPECT A WEAK LAKE BREEZE TO                  
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS AMPLE SUNSHINE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR                     
SKIES...JUST FEW CU AND SCT CI...WILL ENHANCE THE DIFFERENTIAL                  
HEATING BETWEEN LAND AND WATER. IT IS STILL QUESTIONABLE WHETHER                
THE LAKE BREEZE BNDRY WILL PENETRATE INLAND FAR ENOUGH TO MOVE                  
THROUGH MDW/ORD...SO WILL KEEP THEM SELY THROUGH THE LATE                       
AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT ANY LAKE BREEZE TO DISSIPATE AT                         
SUNSET...AND WINDS WILL RETURN TO REFLECTIVE OF THE SYNOPTIC                    
FLOW...WHICH SHOULD BE MORE SWLY.                                               
THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE                    
NORTH. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH                  
INTO NRN IL SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO WILL DELAY THE WIND SHIFT               
TO NELY UNTIL 08Z. HAVE MAINTAINED THE POSSIBILITY OF BR FORMATION              
FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. GIVEN THAT THE AIRMASS TRANSFORMATION              
WITH THE FROPA WILL BE SLOW...EXPECT THAT THE COOLING ASSOCIATED                
WITH THE FROPA AND THE MOISTURE LEVELS CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL                  
LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD BR DEVELOPMENT THAN WAS OBSERVED THIS                   
MORNING.                                                                        
GIVEN THE EARLY MORNING TIMING OF FROPA...FEEL THAT THERE IS                    
LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THERE MAY BE              
SOME CONCERN WITH SOME SHRA DEVELOPING TOWARD THE END OF THE                    
PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM THE                 
SOUTH. CURRENT INDICATIONS LOOK LIKE ANY PCPN ASSD WITH THIS                    
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE TERMINALS...BUT THIS WILL              
NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR LATER UPDATES.                                         
KREIN                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
230 PM...A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH DOWN THE LENGTH OF LAKE                     
MICHIGAN WILL REACH THE SOUTH TIP OF THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT. IN THE              
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS WILL TURN NLY-NELY AN INCREASE              
TO 15-25KT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...OVER                 
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL SPREAD               
EAST OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND THE EASTERN LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AS A               
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS                  
TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS...REACHING THE                   
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.                                  
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
226 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
221 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2008                                                      
16Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED STRONG SHORT WAVE                
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA WITH RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL                  
CONUS. AT THE SFC...TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN                           
COLORADO...ALTHOUGH PRESSURE FALL ANALYSIS THROUGH THE MORNING HAD              
INDICATED VERY LITTLE DEVELOPMENT WITH IT. FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES             
WERE APPARENT ON KDDC AND ESPECIALLY KLBF BETWEEN H85 AND H7.                   
MOISTURE PROFILES APPEAR LACKING AT THE MOMENT...ALTHOUGH DEEPER                
MOISTURE WAS OBSERVED DOWNSTREAM AT KOUN. SHORT RANGE MODELS IN                 
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE FEATURES IN THE BEGINNING OF THE             
FORECAST...BUT BY 60HRS GFS APPEARS TO BE ALONG IN ITS DEEPER FASTER            
H5 TROUGH SOLUTION AND WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS NAM/CANADIAN SOLUTION             
FOR LATER PERIODS.                                                              
TONIGHT...WITH OBSERVED STEEP LAPSE RATES ALREADY IN PLACE...SHOULD             
BE A FAIRLY DECENT RESPONSE TO WAA THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA              
TONIGHT AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST. 40KT LLJ WILL DEVELOP                 
OVERNIGHT AS JET STREAK APPROACHES...BUT FORCING ALONG THIS FEATURE             
APPEARS WEAK AT THE MOMENT AND CENTERED TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.                
ALTHOUGH DOWNSTREAM RAOBS APPEAR LACKING IN MOISTURE THIS                       
MORNING...WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS A PLUME OF PAC MOISTURE ALREADY                   
ADVECTING TO THE SOUTHEAST SECTION OF APPROACHING TROUGH...AND LLJ              
WILL ALSO AID IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT. PICKING A LOCATION OF BEST                 
FORCING A BIT DIFFICULT AS BEST H85 LLJ CONVERGENCE ACROSS EXTREME              
EASTERN CWA...BUT STRONGEST H7-H6 WAA ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL.              
THERE DOES EXIST A FRONTOGENESIS MAX ALONG THERMAL RIDGE                        
OVERNIGHT...BUT SINCE THERMAL RIDGE IS TO THE WEST...BEST FORCING               
WILL ALSO BE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS AXIS. WITH FORCING APPARENTLY             
CENTERED MORE OVER THE WEST THAN EAST...WILL MOVE POPS WESTWARD BUT             
WILL NOT LOWER THEM MUCH ACROSS THE EAST DUE TO LLJ FORCING.                    
CONSIDERED UPPING POPS SOME...BUT INSTABILITY WILL RELY ON PARCELS              
BECOMING SATURATED AND LARGE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ON 310K             
SURFACE DOES NOT BRING A LOT OF CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL OCCUR.                
TOMORROW-TOMORROW NIGHT...AREA OF WAA/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL SHIFT             
TO THE EAST WITH RIDGE AXIS DURING THE THE DAY AND EXPECT ANY                   
ONGOING PRECIPITATION TO END DURING THE MORNING. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW             
ALOFT WILL MOVE IN ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING RIDGE.                  
ALTHOUGH SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING DOES NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG               
DURING THE AFTERNOON. LEE TROUGH/DEVELOPING SFC LOW LINES UP WELL               
WITH NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WEST...AND EXPECT THIS TO            
BE AREA WHERE STORMS DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING. DIV Q                  
FIELDS INDICATE ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION                    
OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION ANOTHER...STRONGER...LLJ DEVELOPS ACROSS THE             
AREA OVERNIGHT WITH BEST CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST WHICH            
SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES THROUGH THE NIGHT.                   
OTHER CONCERN WILL BE WINDS AS SFC LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN                  
COLORADO AND LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. MODELS DISAGREE ON PLACEMENT OF            
STRONGEST WINDS...BUT ALL TEND TO AGREE SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE                  
25-30KT RANGE FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. PEAK WINDS IN THE MIXED                 
COLUMN REMAIN IN THE 30-35KT  THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON BUT BEGIN             
TO PICK UP AROUND 00Z WITH PEAK WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER APPROACHING            
40 KTS. OVERALL PATTERN SEEMS FAVORABLE FOR WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS            
WITH LOW DEEPENING TO THE WEST...BUT LARGE DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT             
OF STRONGER WINDS AND SOME DISCREPANCIES IN OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF THE            
WIND SPEEDS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN ISSUING AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT.              
WITH IT APPEARING MORE LIKELY TO BE A SUSTAINED WIND EVENT AND                  
GUSTS...GENERALLY ONLY BARLEY MEETING CRITERIA...THINK I WILL HOLD              
OF ANY HIGHLIGHTS FOR NOW.                                                      
MONDAY-TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA             
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. STRONG SHORTWAVE            
TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY                          
NIGHT...FORCING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE AND                      
INSTABILITY DUE APPEAR LIMITED DURING THE DAY...BUT BOTH NAM AND GFS            
INDICATE CINH  NEARLY REMOVED BY THE AFTERNOON AND FORCING ALONG                
DRYLINE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP A STORM OR TWO. FRONT WILL MOVE             
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AND WITH FAVORABLE LOCATION OF H3               
JET NEARBY WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST FOR POPS/WX OVERNIGHT. SREF               
HANGS ONTO FRONT ACROSS EASTERN CWA DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND                
WILL INCLUDE LOW POPS ALONG FRONTAL ZONE. FIRE WX CONCERNS MAY ALSO             
ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO THE AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE                    
DRYLINE. RH`S STAY JUST ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES (16-20%) RANGE DURING             
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME INDICATIONS THAT WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND               
CRITICAL VALUES. RIGHT NOW...DOES NOT LOOK LIKE CRITERIA WILL BE MET            
BUT WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH IT.                                          
IN THE EXTENDED...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH              
THE PERIOD WITH RIDGE AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND DEPARTING             
H5 TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. SOME DIFFERENCES ARE APPARENT IN OPERATIONAL            
RUNS...WITH 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF SHOWING REASONABLE AGREEMENT                  
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. 00Z GFS ENS MEAN ACTUALLY SUPPORTS ECWMF            
SOLUTION TOWARDS THE LATTER PERIODS AND WILL WEIGHT FORECAST IN THIS            
DIRECTION. MUCH OF THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY...WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTION             
OF OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. GFS INDICATING SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY ON             
NOSE OF 310K PRESSURE ADVECTION...WITH A COHERENT TONGUE OF MOISTURE            
FEEDING INTO THE AREA. OTHER MODELS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE SUPPORTING              
THIS AND NOT READY TO GO ANY HIGHER THAN A 20 POP FOR THIS PERIOD.              
TEMPERATURES WILL BE OTHER CONCERN AS MODELS GENERALLY AGREE IN                 
WARMING H85 TEMPS INTO THE MID 20S BY NEXT WEEKEND. WARMED TEMPS UP             
SEVERAL DEGREES...BUT WITH CWA JUST ON THE FRINGE OF H5                         
RIDGE...WORRIED THAT A FRONT OR TWO MAY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE CWA               
DURING THE PERIOD AND DID NOT WANT TO GO OVERBOARD WITH THE WARMING             
AT THIS POINT.                                                                  
JRM                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
1140 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2008                                                     
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THIS                  
ENTIRE FORECAST. INITIALLY VERY FEW CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH              
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS               
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 06Z SUNDAY.                  
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF KMCK BUT                   
SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE AIRPORT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT                 
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST AT BOTH SITES THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY.                 
FS                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
258 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...UPDATED                                
MOST INSTABILITY IN RUC/NAM CURRENTLY IS WHERE THE FEW SHOWERS ARE              
DEVELOPING IN AND BORDERING THE BLUEGRASS AREA. BUT LIMITED CAPE AND            
A SIGNIFICANT CAP IS TRYING TO SUPPRESS THE SHOWERS AND EXPECT THAT             
SUNSET APPROACHING IN A FEW HOURS WILL ALLOW THESE SHOWERS TO DIE               
BEFORE DARK. WILLIAMSBURG AND SOMERSET MAY SOON ALSO FIRE SOME SINCE            
THEY ARE APPROACHING CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WITH THE WEAK SHORTWAVE            
IN THE AREA. THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY               
WHILE ADVECTING MOISTURE MAINLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST RATHER THAT                
INTO EAST KENTUCKY.                                                             
.LONG TERM.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...UPDATED                          
THE LONG TERM MODELS ARE STILL NOT SHOWING ANY INDICATION OF WHEN               
THE BLOCKING RIDGE IS GOING TO BREAK DOWN. AS SUCH...WILL KEEP                  
EVERYTHING DRY THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE PATTERN OF WARM TO HOT            
AFTERNOONS AND COOL MORNINGS WILL CONTINUE. ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS              
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO REFLECT MOS TRENDS.                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/                                                        
VFR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR A               
BIT OF FOG SUNDAY MORNING. SME/LOZ MIGHT HAVE LIMITED VISIBILITY                
REDUCTIONS. THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON           
FROM WILLIAMSBURG TO FLEMINGSBURG BELIEVE THE CHANCES ARE SLIM ENOUGH           
TO LEAVE THEM OUT OF TAFS FOR SME/LOZ. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THAT                 
POSSIBILITY FOR ANY UPDATE.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...GV                                                                 
LONG TERM...JJ                                                                  
AVIATION...GV                                                                   
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
156 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TODAY/                                               
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY RESTS ON HOW STRONG IS THE CAP BETWEEN 650              
AND 750 MB. 12Z RUC/06Z NAM WOULD SUGGEST THAT ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS            
PRESENT ALONG WITH THE APPROACHING VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED               
WITH SOME SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN MIDDLE TN FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED OR               
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDER. THIS CAP IN THE 12Z NAM IS                  
SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE 06Z RUN BUT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO                  
OVERCOME IT FOR POSSIBLE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. 06Z GFS SHOWS A MORE             
ROBUST CAP AND LESS MOISTURE WHILE 12Z BNA SOUNDING SHOWED MORE AND             
DEEPER MOISTURE THAN THIS MODEL INDICATED. GIVEN THAT WE SHOW A                 
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR OUR WEST PORTION WHILE NEARBY LOCATIONS DO NOT            
INDICATE THAT MUCH CHANCE CANNOT JUSTIFY INCREASING POPS...BUT WILL             
MONITOR FOR UPDATE. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE                
MID/UPPER 70S SO LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES 2-3 DEGREES. SHOULD HAVE AN           
EARLIER START TO CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ALONG WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM            
DECAYING SHOWERS FROM TN TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM                
YESTERDAYS VALUES.                                                              
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                          
/TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/                                                          
EARLY THIS MORNING...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF                 
MEXICO EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WELL TO THE NORTH...RATHER               
FAST WESTERLIES WERE GENERALLY NORTH OF THE US CANADIAN BORDER WITH A           
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE JAMES BAY/HUDSON BAY REGION DOWN INTO                 
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER THE MID MS                      
VALLEY...NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OH AND MS RIVERS. AT THE SFC...AN           
EXPANSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS SOUTH INTO THE APPALACHIANS            
FROM THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.                                            
THROUGH SUNDAY...THE WEAK CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO               
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TO THE WEST OF THE AREA LARGELY AND THEN               
DAMPEN OUT TO END THE PERIOD. IN FACT...THIS WILL LEAD TO RISING HEIGHTS        
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...AND BOTH THE GFS AND NAM INDICATE SW/V               
UPPER RIDGING WORKING BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. A WEAK BOUNDARY           
WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON SUN NIGHT INTO           
MONDAY...AS THE NEXT REINFORCING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WORKS INTO               
EASTERN/CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IN CONCERT WITH THE           
RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY.                              
REGIONAL SFC OBSERVATIONS REVEAL HIGHER DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY NEAR AND            
WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR...OR GENERALLY CLOSER TO THE UPPER           
LEVEL SYSTEM. LOW LEVEL FLOW FURTHER EAST IS SOUTHEAST OR DOWNSLOPE...          
THOUGH RECENT VWP INDICATES IT IS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY. THE FINER            
RESOLUTION NAM AS WELL AS THE 21Z SREF GENERALLY INDICATE THAT THE              
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL WEAKEN WITH MORE SOUTHERLY TO WEAK WESTERLY FLOW            
OVER THE WESTERN AREAS...ALLOWING FOR LIMITED MOISTURE ADVECTION.               
THEN NAM AND SREF DEVELOP A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE/AREA OF                 
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE OH RIVER AND EXTENDING EAST IN THE BLUEGRASS               
REGION. WITH BETTER MOISTURE IN PLACE AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETTER             
OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES...A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS              
AFTERNOON OVER THIS REGION AS CAPPING WILL BE WEAKER THERE CLOSER TO            
THE CLOSED LOW THAN IN AREAS FURTHER TO THE EAST. AREAS IN OR NEAR              
WHERE SHOWERS OCCURRED ON FRI EVENING CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR                   
POSSIBLE VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS ON SAT DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING               
BOUNDARIES...BUT KEPT THESE AREAS OF FAR SE KY DRY FOR NOW AS THEY              
APPEAR TO BE CAPPED. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL WANE WITH THE LOSS OF          
DAYTIME HEATING...BUT THE CAP AGAIN APPEARS AS IF IT WILL BE WEAKER             
ON SUN OVER THE FAR SW COUNTIES NEAR LAKE CUMBERLAND AND AGAIN                  
INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THESE AREAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE              
PERIOD WILL BE DRY AS HEIGHTS RISE. ANY MOISTURE FROM THE DYING                 
BOUNDARY ON MON SHOULD ONLY LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SHALLOW AFTERNOON            
CU OVER NE KY.                                                                  
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONTINUES TO HAVE AN EFFECT           
AND LOZ AND JKL AGAIN VERIFIED WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR FRI MAX T           
AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE FOR MAX T THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AT BOTH            
SITES. GUIDANCE AT SME WAS GENERALLY FOLLOWED...THOUGH WITH THE RIDGE           
BUILDING IN ON MON...THE WARMER MAV MAX TEMP APPEARED IN ORDER.                 
OTHERWISE...RIDGE/VALLEY TEMP SPLITS AS WELL AS PATCHY FOG BETWEEN 6Z           
AND 13Z EACH NIGHT AND EARLY EACH MORNING WILL CONTINUE. MAV GUIDANCE           
AND NAM DATA BOTH INDICATE FALLING DEWPOINTS ON SUN AS NE FLOW USHERS           
IN SOME DRIER AIR. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE COOLEST VALLEY                  
READINGS DURING THE PERIOD ON MON AM...WHERE THE NORMALLY COLD SPOTS            
SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S.                                                 
.LONG TERM.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/                                      
FOR THE EXTENDED...THE LONGWAVE PATTERN HOLDS LITTLE HOPE FOR PCPN              
MAKING INTO EAST KENTUCKY AS THE RIDGE...MENTIONED ABOVE...TILTS                
NORTHEASTWARD WHILE THE WESTERN TROUGH PLOWS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA             
AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE UPPER PATTERN THUS FLATTENS OUT...              
RIDGING WILL HOLD ON STRONG OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS THE NATION WHILE           
THE WESTERLIES RACE BY WELL TO THE NORTH. THE ECMWF FROM 00Z/19 WAS             
FOLLOWED CLOSEST GIVEN ITS RECENT PERFORMANCE AND REASONABLE                    
SOLUTION. ONE INTERESTING ASPECT OF IT/S SOLUTION...THOUGH ONE NOT SO           
MUCH RESOLVED IN THE GFS...WAS THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LOW OFF              
THE SOUTHEAST COAST FROM MIDWEEK ON. THIS APPEARS TO FURTHER AMPLIFY            
THE RIDGE TO ITS WEST...HAMMERING HOME THE IDEA OF A DRY EXTENDED FOR           
OUR AREA. A QUICK PEEK AT THE 12Z ECMWF SEES IT CONTINUING THIS                 
TREND.                                                                          
FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...IT IS AS IF THE WEATHER PATTERN IS COMING UP             
WITH NEW WAYS TO KEEP EAST KENTUCKY DRY. RIDGING ALOFT WILL MAKE ANY            
FRONT THAT MANAGES TO COME THROUGH HERE A DRY PASSAGE...AN UPPER                
LOW...AND ITS WEAK SFC REFLECTION...TO THE WEST WILL FALL APART                 
BEFORE GETTING CLOSE ENOUGH TO GIVE US RAIN...AND FINALLY A                     
POTENTIAL EAST COAST SYSTEM LATE IN THE PERIOD WILL ONLY SERVE TO               
KEEP OUR AREA IN SUBSIDENCE WHILE STRENGTHENING THE UPPER RIDGING               
JUST OFF TO OUR WEST. IN THIS REGIME...AM LOATH TO FORECAST ANY PCPN.           
AS A RESULT...A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WAS CARRIED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH            
ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR THE VAGARIES OF DRY FRONTS AND VARIOUS HIGH                
PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH. THE ONLY HOPE I SEE FOR MUCH NEEDED           
RAIN IS THE SEASONAL EXPECTATION OF THE WESTERLIES EVENTUALLY                   
PUSHING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO AFFECT US...BEYOND THE EXTENDED. UNTIL              
THAT HAPPENS THOUGH...DRY AND SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL                 
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST.                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/...UPDATED                                              
VFR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR A               
BIT OF FOG SUNDAY MORNING. SME/LOZ MIGHT HAVE LIMITED VISIBILITY                
REDUCTIONS. THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON           
FROM WILLIAMSBURG TO FLEMINGSBURG BELIEVE THE CHANCES ARE SLIM ENOUGH           
TO LEAVE THEM OUT OF TAFS FOR SME/LOZ. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THAT                 
POSSIBILITY FOR ANY UPDATE.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JP/GV                                                              
LONG TERM....GREIF                                                              
AVIATION...GV                                                                   
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                             
1215 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
ADJUSTMENTS FOR FIRST PERIOD /THIS AFTERNOON/ SENSIBLE WEATHER                  
TRENDS AND 18Z SATURDAY ROUTINE TAF ISSUANCE.                                   
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN CIRCULATION CENTER WITH CLOSED LOW CENTERED NORTH OF ST.                   
LOUIS AROUND NOON TODAY. MOST OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FROM                    
MEDIUM TO SHORT RANGE HAVE INITIALIZED OR PROGGED THE MID LEVEL                 
/500 MB/ CIRCULATION TOO FAR SOUTH OR EAST THAN THE 12Z UPPER AIR               
ANALYSIS OF THE SYSTEM. IN GENERAL TERMS...THE 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z                
GFS DID NOT DO TOO POORLY...BUT UNDERESTIMATED THE HEIGHT OF THE                
LOW BY 10-30 DM. FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...RELIED AND PLACED MORE                
WEIGHT ON THE 13KM RUC AND 40KM GFS GUIDANCE. THE END RESULT IS                 
MORE CLOUDS DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON...LOWER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES               
BY ONE CATEGORY.                                                                
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MARGINAL THROUGH AT LEAST 19Z...SO LEANED               
HEAVILY TOWARD SHOWER ONLY WORDING THROUGH NOON. DURING THE                     
AFTERNOON...WHERE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL BE STRONGEST ALONG THE              
EDGE OF THE UPPER CIRCULATION...A LOWER...BUT EQUAL CHANCE FOR                  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR THIS REASON...I DECIDED TO USE              
EQUIVALENT PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWER VS. THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
IN THE MAIN ZONE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON...KCGI/KPAH...WILL       
KEEP MVFR CEILINGS IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST 6-12 HOURS OF                
THE FORECAST...WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR KEVV/KOWB. IT WILL              
BE SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THE LIKELIHOOD FOR VICINITY                   
THUNDERSTORMS IN EACH OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF                 
THE FORECAST...AS THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE CLOSE TO                
THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS PARTICULAR FORECAST                        
ISSUANCE...I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON PINPOINTING CONVECTIVE                      
ACTIVITY AND THE OCCURRENCE OF MVFR CEILINGS AND                                
VISIBILITIES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE KEVV/KOWB TAF SITES. CLOSER TO               
THE UPPER LOW...I EXPECT A GREATER PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS/MVFR                  
CEILINGS AT KCGI/KPAH.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2008/                              
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
THE WETTER NAM MODEL HAS PROVED TO BE THE BETTER NEAR TERM                      
PREDICTOR OF ONGOING PCPN...AT LEAST JUDGING BY FRIDAY THRU THE                 
CURRENT TIME RADAR SNAPS. NAM SHOWS UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO                     
CIRCULATE ACROSS PAH FA THRU SUNDAY...KEEPING ITS FEED OF 60S TDS               
ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY. THE BEST SUCH POPS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE              
CENTER OF THE LOW CIRCULATION...MAINLY NORTH/WEST PORTIONS OF THE               
FA...TAPERING TO THE LEAST POPS EAST.                                           
BY SUNDAY NIGHT...HEIGHTS START TO REBOUND...AND AS A RESULT THE                
LOW`S CIRCULATION FIZZLES OUT AND THE MOISTURE FEED IS CUT OFF.                 
THE DEVELOPING HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND EAST ENDS UP DRAGGING IN                   
DRIER AIR FROM THE EAST AND POURING IT INTO OUR ATMOS COLUMN BY                 
TUESDAY AS A DOWNSTREAM ANTI-CYCLONIC SURFACE CIRCULATION IS                    
REFLECTED UNDERNEATH THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS CONFIRMS THE REMAINDER               
OF THE FORECAST LOOKING DRY EXCEPT MAYBE A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHING              
FROM THE WEST BY LATE IN THE WEEK...TO BE CONSIDERED IN FUTURE                  
RUNS.                                                                           
NAM PREF LEADS TO MET MOS FAVOR W/THE USUAL COLLAB BLEND...RESULTING            
IN A SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID NEAR TERM...AT LEAST TIL THE LOW FIZZLES.              
AVIATION...                                                                     
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE ALONG AND              
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND OVER SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. SHOWERS            
AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKE A CERTAINTY AT TIMES AT KCGI...WITH                 
LESSER CHANCES AT KPAH. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS               
WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS. KEVV AND KOWB SHOULD CONTINUE WITH VFR                 
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD.  THOUGH SHOWER AND                       
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE AFTER 00Z...BEST CHANCES WILL                
REMAIN ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.                                 
&&                                                                              
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...SMITH                                                              
LONG TERM....CN                                                                 
AVIATION...SMITH                                                                
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
209 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...               
RESULTING IN COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE                 
WARMER MONDAY. THE NEXT...SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS DOES NOT ARRIVE               
UNTIL LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                                  
AS OF 205 PM SATURDAY...                                                        
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A DIFFICULT CLOUD FORECAST OVERNIGHT...BASED             
ON SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS IN THE UPPER-LEVEL                
MOISTURE FORECAST...AND WHAT WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSPIRE IN THE LOW               
LEVELS. FAIRLY EXPANSIVE STRATOCU FIELD EXISTS OVER CENTRAL AND                 
EASTERN ZONES THOUGH WITH ENOUGH BREAKS THAT TEMPERATURES HAVE                  
ESSENTIALLY RISEN TO NEAR FORECAST HIGHS. THE NAM...IN ITS LOW-                 
LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS AND ON ITS BUFR SOUNDINGS...SUGGESTS             
LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE THIS EVENING...BUT EVENTUALLY            
BECOMING MORE SCATTERED AS 300-310K ISENTROPIC LIFT DIMINISHES AND              
ACTUALLY TRANSITIONS MORE TO ISENTROPIC DESCENT DURING THE                      
ESPECIALLY NORTH WITH AN ASSOCIATED DECREASE IN 850MB THETA-E. THE              
GFS AND RUC ARE FASTER WITH CLOUD EROSION...PROVIDING FOR DECENT                
DRYING IN THE 925MB LAYER BY 03Z. AVAILABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND              
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW...ALONG WITH SATELLITE TRENDS...WOULD                 
TEND TO SUPPORT THE NAM...AND OVERALL ANTICIPATE AREAS OF STRATOCU              
TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED.                                                       
BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS PROVIDE FOR A 250MB 65KT JETLET MOVING                 
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT...WITH THE GFS BRINGING                 
MORE HIGH CLOUDS WITH IT VERSUS THE NAM. ONCE AGAIN LEANING TOWARD              
THE NAM BASED ON IR TRENDS UPSTREAM...AND THOUGH THERE MAY BE                   
SCATTERED TO THIN BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...                    
BELIEVE THE BETTER CHANCE OF INCREASED HIGH OR MID LEVEL CLOUDS                 
WILL BE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WHEN BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM                     
SUGGEST EVEN STRONGER WINDS IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE                 
ENTERING THE CAROLINAS. THE COMBINATION OF LOW CLOUDS AND ANY HIGH              
CLOUDS MAY MAKE VARIABLY CLOUDY A GOOD SKY FORECAST OVERNIGHT. LOW              
TEMPERATURES OVERALL SHOULD BE AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER              
OVERNIGHT BASED ON GRADUALLY INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...WITH              
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING FROM AS LOW AS VALUES UNDER A              
HALF-INCH TOWARD KGSO... BEING AROUND AN INCH THROUGHOUT CENTRAL                
NORTH CAROLINA BY 12Z.                                                          
ASIDE FROM POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG EARLY SUNDAY MAINLY NORTHEAST                    
WHERE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE MORE SCATTERED ACCOMPANIED BY HIGHER                    
DEWPOINTS...ANTICIPATE PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AS A RULE SUNDAY                 
AS ANY LOW CLOUDS GIVE WAY TO INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE.                  
DESPITE WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FORECAST WITH THE APPROACH AND              
PASSAGE OF JETLETS ALOFT...OVERALL ISENTROPIC DESCENT...SURFACE                 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH PROVIDING FOR GOOD SUBSIDENCE...AND                
SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THETA-E TROUGHING ALL KEEP PRECIPITATION                  
CHANCES AT BAY. THICKNESSES WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S...             
IN LINE WITH THE CONSENSUS OF MOS.                                              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                             
AS OF 205 PM SATURDAY...                                                        
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...                                            
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER THE OZARKS WILL               
GRADUALLY SHEAR OUT AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT               
THROUGH TUESDAY. VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL                    
ACCOMPANY THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE....BUT DRY CONDITIONS WILL                   
PREVAIL AS PREDOMINATELY NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE THE 1000-700 MB             
LAYER WILL RESULT IN A DRY 10 KFT SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND STABLE                    
CONDITIONS. THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY IMPACT MIN                        
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE TO NO AFFECT ON              
AFTERNOON HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES RISE INTO             
THE 1390S...THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. LOWS 55 TO 60. HIGHS 80 TO             
84.                                                                             
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON TUESDAY              
AS CENTRAL NC LOOKS TO STAY ON THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE                     
AFOREMENTIONED WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON TUESDAY...WHILE STRONG SFC            
RIDGING EXTENDS SOUTH INTO THE AREA FROM A PARENT HIGH LOCATED OVER             
NEW ENGLAND. GFS BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MORNING                  
STRATUS DEVELOPING...AND THEN LIFTING TO A SCATTERED STRATOCU LAYER             
IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE ARE GLARING DIFFERENCE IN THE LOW-LEVEL                 
THERMAL STRUCTURE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE NAM NEARLY 25 METERS             
WARMER THAN THE GFS. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. LOWS IN THE MID             
TO UPPER 50S.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                      
AS OF 205 PM SATURDAY...                                                        
THERE IS GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN DURING THE             
PERIOD FEATURING AN EXPANSIVE...YET FLAT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT                 
EXTENDS FROM THE SOCAL COAST...THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ON              
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...A                    
NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT OFF               
THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER                
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW SOME OF THE NWP MODEL                  
GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN INDICATING SIGNIFICANT CYCLOGENESIS (POSSIBLE                
SUBTROPICAL LOW DEVELOPMENT)OFF THE SE COAST BY THE END OF THE                  
WORK WEEK. THIS IS WHERE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE TAKES A SHARP                    
PLUNGE DOWNWARD AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STRUGGLE TO COME TO A                    
CONSENSUS WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE                      
CENTER...MORE SPECIFICALLY IF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL                     
RETROGRADE WESTWARD TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS...OR EVENTUALLY LIFT                  
NORTH AND NORTHEAST...REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE. GIVEN THE HIGH                   
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME RANGE...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE              
POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY AND                
SATURDAY.                                                                       
A CONTINUATION OF AUTUMN LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE            
PERIOD AS ANOTHER SEASONABLY DRY AND COOL SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS DOWN             
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. PROLONG PERIOD OF LOW-LEVEL ATLANTIC MARITIME             
ADVECTION COULD RESULT IN A CHALLENGING CLOUD FORECAST...QUITE                  
SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. LOWS IN            
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                    
AS OF 205 PM SATURDAY...                                                        
AS MENTIONED IN THE NEAR-TERM PORTION OF THE AFD...CLOUD FORECAST               
IS DIFFICULT OVERNIGHT. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS IN THE TRIAD...               
WITH AREAS OF MVFR STRATOCU OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES               
WEST. ELSEWHERE...LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO                    
TRANSITION TO MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF BROKEN STRATOCU BY AROUND                
MIDNIGHT AS LAYER ISENTROPIC LIFT BECOMES VERY WEAK OR DIMINISHES.              
WITH ENOUGH SCATTERING OF LOW CLOUDS AND GENERALLY LIGHT SURFACE                
WINDS...PERIODS OF IFR FOG ARE POSSIBLE AT KRWI.                                
ANY REMAINING...LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY                
14Z SUNDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM HAVE LIGHTER 925MB WINDS FORECAST              
IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA 12Z SUNDAY VERSUS WHAT OCCURRED AROUND                
12Z SATURDAY...AND THOUGH NORTHEAST WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE                    
SHOULD BE AS HIGH AS AROUND 20KT WITHIN THE FIRST 2000FT...BELIEVE              
LLWS THRESHOLDS WILL NOT BE MET. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING                 
SOUTH SUNDAY SHOULD KEEP SUSTAINED WINDS 10KT OR LESS.                          
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE GFS              
SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS TUESDAY THROUGH               
THURSDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG ANY LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPS              
OFFSHORE...PERIODS OF AFTERNOON GUSTY WINDS IN A TIGHTENING                     
PRESSURE GRADIENT...IN ADDITION TO LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LLWS...             
MAY OCCUR IN THAT PERIOD AS WELL. THIS IS PARTICULARLY TRUE IF                  
THE GFS 925MB WIND SPEEDS APPROACHING OR JUST EXCEEDING 35KT                    
VERIFY DURING LATE NIGHT PERIODS.                                               
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...DJF                                                                  
NEAR TERM...DJF                                                                 
SHORT TERM...CBL                                                                
LONG TERM...CBL                                                                 
AVIATION...DJF                                                                  
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI                                           
345 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.                                               
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FOX                
VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE NOW TURNED NORTHEAST AT                  
MANITOWOC...GREEN BAY AND SHAWANO WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OR SO WITH               
RADAR FINE LINE SHOWING UP NICELY ON THE GRB WSR-88D. A FEW                     
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO FORM OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...EAST OF                   
STURGEON BAY...BUT HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH PAULTRY AVAILABLE                  
MOISTURE. SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES PRONOUNCED...BUT SHALLOW CONVERGENCE           
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST               
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. SFC TEMPS HAVE ALSO CLIMBED TO                    
AROUND 80 WITH DEW POINTS STILL AROUND 60. MODIFIED 20Z CWA                     
AIRCRAFT SOUNDING AND 20Z RUC YIELD NOTABLE POSITIVE CAPE NEAR                  
1000 J/KG...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VERY WEAK WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL               
UPPER-LEVL SUPPORT.  STILL CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR                 
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM TO INITIATE NEAR THE COLD FRONT AS IT                   
PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHEWST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN                  
ABOUT 22Z AND 00Z.                                                              
CAN ALSO EXPECT SOME GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN INTO              
THE EVENING AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE 60S.                          
COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SAG INTO SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN                   
OVERNIGHT AS HI PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT                
INTO SUNDAY.                                                                    
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP WEST OF THE MISSISSIPI RIVER             
VALLEY SUNDAY AS HI PRESSURE DRIFTS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.               
MOISTURE STILL APPEARS QUITE LIMITED...THUS DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN               
THE WAY OF ANY PRECIP ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT STARTS TO HEAD               
BACK NORTHWARD LATE SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SUNDAY DRY DUE                
TO THE PERSISTENT DRY EASTERLY FLOW.                                            
FINALLY...DECIDED TO CONTINUE THE FROST ADVISORY IN COORD WITH                  
MQT. ALTHOUGH SFC GRADIENT MAY BE A BIT STRONGER THAN PREVIOUS                  
FCST...SFC DEWPOINT STILL QUITE LOW NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH                 
NOT A LOT CLOUDS UPSTREAM. GIVEN...LONGER NIGHTS AND PERHAPS A FEW              
HOURS OF LIGHT WINDS...SEEMED REASONABLE TO CONTINUE WITH ADVISORY              
LATER TONIGHT.                                                                  
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SAT.                                           
FORECAST CONFIDENCE NOT EXTREMELY HIGH FOR THIS PERIOD AS TIMING                
AND LOCATION OF SEVERAL FAST MOVING SYSTEMS PROBLEMATIC.                        
EARLY IN PERIOD...AREA IN RETURN FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF RETREATING                 
SFC RIDGE. THAT`S ABOUT ALL THE MED RANGE MODELS AGREE ON AS                    
DIVERGING SOLUTIONS THEN BECOME THE NORM AS SHORTWV TROF MOVS                   
TOWARD AREA LATE TUE AND/OR WED. 20/12Z GFS APPEARS TO BE THE ODD               
MODEL OUT AS IT IS FASTER THAN 20/12Z NAM AND ECMWF. IN FACT...                 
THE GFS HAS BEEN FLIP-FLOPPING A BIT ON TIMING OF SYSTEMS FOR THE               
UPCOMING WEEK. AT LEAST THE 20/00Z AND 20/12Z RUNS OF ECMWF HAVE                
SHOWN SOME SEMBLANCE OF CONSISTENCY.                                            
SIMILARLY...THE 20/12Z GFS IS FASTER WITH TIMING OF UPPER LEVEL                 
JET AND SFC COLD FRONT FOR FRIDAY. WILL TREND TIMING OF BOTH                    
SYSTEMS TWD THE SLOWER NAM/ECMWF SOLUTION.                                      
MAX/MIN TEMPS A BLEND OF GFS MOS AND HPC GUID...WHICH IS IN LINE                
WITH CURRENT GRIDS. THE SAME IS TRUE WITH DEWPT AND WIND GRIDS...               
LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. PATCHY           
AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT OVER                
NRN WI...ESPECIALLY AT RHI.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...PERSISTENT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ALONG THE LAKE MICH                
SHORELINE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH LONGER FETCH AND CAA WILL                    
INCREASE WAVE ACTIVITY. SCA STILL IN EFFECT THROUGH 14Z SUNDAY.                 
&&                                                                              
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR WIZ005-010>013.                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ESB/JKL                                                                         
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
327 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
MAIN COLD FRONT WITH MORE PRONOUNCED WIND SHIFT WILL ENTER                      
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS MORNING...THEN                 
SAG SOUTH THIS EVENING. LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...AS TROUGH                  
AXIS FROM SHORTWAVE NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR HAS ESSENTIALLY                  
ALREADY MOVED EAST. VERY WEAK WIND FIELDS THROUGHOUT. RUC SOUNDING              
ARE DRIER THAN 12Z NAM...INDICATING LITTLE DEEP MOIST CONVECTIVE                
POTENTIAL...WITH A WEAK CAP PREVENTING SURFACE BASED MOIST                      
CONVECTION. LOCAL 4 KM WRF MODEL BASED ON LAPS DOES PRODUCE                     
ISOLATED ECHOES...BUT MUCH OF THESE ARE ELEVATED...WITH ONLY A FEW              
SPOTS OF QPF.                                                                   
GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOPS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER WISCONSIN SUNDAY...THAT        
SLOWLY REACHES THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THIS                
BRINGS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES.              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
A SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN U.S...WILL REACH THE                 
NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. INITIAL SHORTWAVE HEADS NORTHEAST INTO              
CANADA...WITH WEAK TRAILING PVA EXTENDING INTO WISCONSIN ON MONDAY.             
SECONDARY UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE REACHES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY MONDAY             
NIGHT...THEN THE SHORTWAVES PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON                  
TUESDAY...A BIT FASTER THAN YESTERDAYS RUNS. SHORTWAVE IS QUICKER               
ON GFS REACHING NORTHERN MINNESOTA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE                 
IS FARTHER NORTH ON TODAYS RUNS...WITH UPPER RIDGE HOLDING                      
MORE...ESPECIALLY ON ECMWF. 06Z DGEX IS EVEN LESS AMPLIFIED WITH                
THIS TROF.                                                                      
SHOWERS PUSH EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...AND                    
WEDNESDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION WEAKENING AS IT ADVANCES THROUGH                 
THE FORECAST AREA.                                                              
UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE U.S. CANADIAN                          
BORDER...RESULTING IN A WEAK TRAILING COLD FRONT AFFECTING THE AREA             
FRIDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WEAK COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA                         
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING                     
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG AND AHEAD            
OF THE FRONT. GIVEN THE SCATTERED NATURE...WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS             
AT THIS TIME.                                                                   
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST SHOULD OCCUR AT TAF SITES BETWEEN 22Z               
SATURDAY AND 02Z SUNDAY. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED FOR A TIME AT KMKE AND            
KENW...GIVEN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAKE MICHIGAN. DECENT TEMPERATURE               
INVERSION COMBINED WITH WEAKENING WINDS LATER TONIGHT SHOULD COMBINE            
FOR SOME MVFR FOG AT KMSN AND KENW...DIMINISHING BY MID MORNING                 
SUNDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY            
MORNING FOR NOW...THOUGH LATEST MODELS SUGGEST CONDITIONS MAY BE                
MORE MARGINAL THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. WAVES MOST LIKELY TO REACH               
CRITERIA BASED ON FAVORABLE NORTHEAST FETCH WITH 10 TO 20 KNOT                  
SUSTAINED WINDS. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS TO 22 KNOTS EXPECTED BEHIND              
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR A TIME THIS EVENING.                                        
&&                                                                              
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY             
     FOR LMZ643>646.                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT/LONG TERM...06/HENTZ                                                      
AVIATION/MARINE...08/WOOD                                                       
</pre> wi