AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA                                              
245 PM PDT WED JUL 20 2005                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...TYPICAL JULY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR                    
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA AND THE COASTLINE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT               
WEEK AS A BROAD...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE WESTERN               
USA REMAINS IN PLACE. THE HOT AND DRY PATTERN INLAND REMAINS                    
UNCHANGED EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL               
CLOUDINESS MOVING IN FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS MOISTURE ALOFT             
COULD BRING SOME HIGH-BASED NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO              
THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.                   
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...WELL-ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE               
WESTERN STATES IS ALLOWING MONSOONAL MOISTURE...MAINLY MID/HIGH                 
CLOUDS...TO ROTATE NWWD FROM THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/SONORAN                
DESERT INTO CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE               
UPPER LOW SPINNING OUT NEAR 37N 135W EXPECTED TO MOVE ENEWD THROUGH             
48 HOURS BUT DO LITTLE TO SHOVE THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE EASTWARD            
NORTH OF 40-41N...NW CALIF ZONES SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE THE STEERING               
FLOW TURN SOUTHERLY AND SURGE PACKETS OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS              
OUR MOUNTAINS IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. WITH HOT/DRY AIR IN PLACE...THIS               
MONSOONAL MOISTURE STREAM SHOULD INCREASE OUR INSTABILITY ALOFT AND             
HAVE HELD ON TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR ISOLATED HIGH-BASED                   
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT BUT ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF               
HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON/THURSDAY NIGHT AND A            
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY IN THE EASTERN TRINITY ALPS. THE            
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST EVENTUALLY TRACKS ENEWD AND FILLS BEING             
ABSORBED BY THE MASSIVE ANTICYCLONE TO OUR EAST. BUT FOR THE                    
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH...AS             
THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE  WEST...                
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AGAIN MOVE TOWARDS THE TRIPLE DIGITS AND THE               
REMNANTS OF EMILY ARE SOMEWHERE NEAR BAJA AND ABLE TO RECURVE NWWD              
INTO THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. WITH ALL THE           
ACTION TO OUR SOUTH...LEFT OUR AREA DRY WITH RISING TEMPERATURES                
THROUGH TIME.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...46022 CONTINUES TO CLOCK SIG WAVE HEIGHTS QUITE A BIT                 
HIGHER THAN WW3 GUIDANCE. SUSPECT THIS IS A RESULT OF GFS SFC WINDS             
UNDERESTIMATING THE NW FLOW IN THE OUTER WATERS W OF THE 46027 BUOY             
WHICH THE RUC PICKS UP ON A BIT BETTER. AS A RESULT WILL CONTINUE               
WITH HAZ SEAS ADVISORY FOR 8X8S WITHIN THE INNER 20 N OF CAPE MENDO             
BUT XPCT FRESH SWELL TO DAMPEN IN THE MORNING DAYTIME THU. WEAK SFC             
LOW TRACKING N OVER WATERS THU WILL EASE WINDS...BUT FOLLOWING                  
PASSAGE BLDG SFC HIGH AND THERMAL LOW WILL CRANK UP N FLOW.                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...STRATUS SLIVER BUTTING UP AGAINST THE IMMEDIATE REDWOOD             
COAST AT 21Z WITH MUCH DEEPER MARINE LAYER S OF CAPE MENDOCINO. VSBL            
SHOWS FRONT EDGE OF DEEPER MSTR MOVG N THRU SRN WATERS OVER TOP A               
CYCLONIC SWIRL OR LOW CIGS AND FOG. AS S FLOW OVERTAKES WATERS XPCT             
STRATUS TO MOVE NWD. NOT XPTG MASSIVE INLAND INTRUSION OVERNIGHT BUT            
WITH BLDG DEPTH SUSPECT COASTAL AIRFIELDS WILL GET A SPILLAGE OF IFR            
LIFR COND TNGT.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...PZZ450-470.                                              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION: MJV                                                        
MARINE/AVIATION: COLBY                                                          
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ca                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
243 PM MDT WED JUL 20 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)                                                          
...HOT AND RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER CONTINUES...                                  
...RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN ON THU...                      
CURRENTLY...AS ANTICIPATED YESTERDAY...THERE HAS BEEN A LITTLE                  
INFLUX OF MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND                   
AM SOUNDING OBSERVATIONS. GJT AND DEN 12Z/20 SOUNDINGS SHOWING A VERY           
SHALLOW(50-100MB) LAYER OF MOISTURE BETWEEN H5 AND H4 LEVELS. WITH              
DAYTIME HEATING AND A COUPLE OF VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...SCT-BKN           
MODERATE CUMULUS/TCU CLOUDS DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY MID/LATE            
MORNING. CLOUD BASES PRETTY HIGH...PROBABLY 150000-20000 FT MSL.                
UPPER AR VALLEY AND SAN LUIS VALLEY WEB CAMS SHOWING THIS WELL.                 
MOSTLY "VIRGA" HAS BEEN PRODUCED WITH SUCH HOT AND RELATIVELY "DRY"             
LOW LEVELS. A "VIRGA-BOMB" HIT KCOS WITH A LOCAL WIND GUST OF 44KTS             
EARLY IN THE AFTN. THE COVERAGE OF "VIRGA" AND "SPRINKLES" HAS BEEN             
RELATIVELY LOW...SO FAR. ALSO...THE COVERAGE AND FREQUENCY OF                   
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN VERY LOW PER THE 1 HOUR LIGHTNING DETECTION SYSTEM           
DATA. THE RADAR ECHOES ONLY LAST FOR ABOUT 10-20 MINUTES...IF THAT.             
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA TRYING TO FORM FROM THE PALMER DVD TO KITR ALONG THE            
MID LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT. TEMPS ROCKETED TO NEAR 100F IN SERN CO             
BY NOON TODAY JUST LIKE YESTERDAY. RECORD HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY FALL           
FOR THIS DATE AND MAY APPROACH ALL-TIME RECORD HIGHS IN SOME                    
LOCATIONS. THIS WAS ALL IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD UPPER LEVEL "HOT" HIGH           
PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW PARKED OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES PER WATER VAPOR AND           
RUC MODEL ANALYSES.                                                             
LATE THIS AFTN AND TNGT...WILL LOOK FOR THE LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL               
HIGH TO REMAIN OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES. WITH JUST ENOUGH MID LEVEL               
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...LOOKING FOR A VERY LOW POP/WX COVERAGE               
FOR HIGH CLOUD BASE "VIRGA"..."SPRINKLES"...AND A COUPLE OF "DRY"               
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVE. NAM12 TRYING TO DEVELOP AN EVE MESOSCALE                
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER E CNTRL-SERN CO/WRN KS AND SEEMS REASONABLE              
WITH ISOLD SHRA/TSRA CURRENTLY FORMING FROM THE PALMER DVD TO KITR.             
THE -1OC TO -3OC HAIL GROWTH ZONE CAPE VALUES ARE LOW(50-75 K/KG)               
ALONG WITH HIGH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT...15-16K FT MSL...SO THE                   
POTENTIAL FOR ICE IN THE CLOUD SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT LOW. THUS...NOT               
EXPECTING A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING WITH ANY CELLS AND NO FIRE           
WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED. TWEAKED MIN TEMPS UP ALONG THE 6-9K           
FT MSL ERN SLOPES OF THE SRN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...WET                   
MOUNTAINS...AND PIKES PEAK. PAST GRIDDED VERIFICATION SHOWING WE HAVE           
BEEN MOSTLY TOO COOL IN THESE AREAS DURING THE NGT.                             
THU...PERSISTENCE PROBABLY THE BEST WAY TO GO. THE CENTROID OF THE              
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS PROJECTED TO SHIFT FROM THE FOUR CORNERS                
AREA INTO NRN CO BY THU AFTN. H7 TEMPS PROGGED TO BE +20C TO +23C...            
SO MORE 100-108F MAX TEMPS ARE LIKELY FOR 5.5K FT MSL AND BELOW.                
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 21 JUL(THU) ARE...                                        
COS 98/1981                                                                     
PUB 106/1981                                                                    
ALS 90/1981                                                                     
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE STILL A CONCERN THU WITH HAINES            
VALUES 5-6 AND AFTN HUMIDITY LEVELS OF 5-15%. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN             
THERMALLY/TERRAIN DRIVEN. NAM12 CONTINUES TO "BLOW-UP" PRECIPITATION            
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE...BUT THE QPF AMOUNTS               
AGAIN LOOKS TOO HIGH AND TOO MUCH COVERAGE. GFS IS PRINTING OUT                 
HARDLY ANY QPF. NOT EXPECTING MUCH HAIL IN THE CLOUD SYSTEMS SINCE              
THE WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE 15-16K FT MSL AND CAPE VALUES ARE <=              
100 J/KG. THUS...ANY "DRY" THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.           
THUS...NO FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES ARE NEEDED. [METZE]                            
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)                                              
MAIN CONCERNS REMAIN TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP CHANCES UNDER HOT UPPER            
LEVEL RIDGE.                                                                    
THU NIGHT-SAT...MODELS CONTINUING THE TREND OF KEEPING CENTROID OF              
HOT (600DM) UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO            
THU NIGHT...SLOWLY SLIDING EASTWARD THROUGH SAT. MODELS INDICATING              
BEST MOISTURE TO RIDE THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN            
NEW MEXICO...UTAH AND INTO CENTRAL WYOMING. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONINTUED           
TO INDICATE JUST ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED HIGH BASED              
CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND A              
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAIN. DRY LIGHTNING            
COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE ISOLATED ENOUGH FOR ANY FIRE WX HIGHLIGHTS                 
ATTM. WILL KEEP THE PLAINS DRY THU NIGHT AND FRI AS THE LACK OF                 
MOISTURE...WARM AIR LOFT (+18C TO +22C) AND NO DISCERNIBLE STRONG               
DISTURBANCES UNDER THE RIDGE WILL KEEP LID ON CONVECTION. WITH THE              
WARM AIR ALOFT...ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE            
RULE...WITH 90S TO THE MID 100S ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND 60S THROUGH             
THE 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BY SAT...WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT           
COULD BRING IN A TAD MORE MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO...ALLOWING           
FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN TSRA COVERAGE.                                         
SUN-WED...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTH AND                
EAST OF THE STATE...ALLOWING FOR SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS              
THE DESERT SW AND GREAT BASIN REGION TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. IN                
ADDITION...A PAC NW SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES            
ON SUNDAY AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT             
TO SLIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WITH THE            
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DEVELOPING UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS...            
WE WILL SEE BETTER CHANCES OF WETTING RAINS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH           
THE PERIOD. CURRENT FORECAST HAS TREND OF WETTER AND COOLER WEATHER             
WELL IN HAND...AND MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES THROUGH THIS PERIOD. -MW             
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION                          
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL                             
ISSUED BY NWS MELBOURNE FL                                                      
1045 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2005                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MORNING SOUNDINGS FROM TAMPA AND CAPE CANAVERAL SHOW DEEP EASTERLY              
FLOW BUT LIKELY NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE WEST COAST SEA                 
BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING. RUC40 SHOWS A STRUNG OUT VORT LOBE MOVING               
WEST ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG              
HEATING AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED                  
LIGHTNING STORMS AGAIN THIS AFTN AND EVENING. THE STRONGEST STORMS              
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM ONGOING STORMS                   
INTERSECTS THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE LATE THIS AFTN NEAR THE COAST.             
THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING STRIKES              
AND STRONG DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS. LOCALLY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL                     
SHEAR/HELICITY AS A RESULT OF BOUNDARY COLLISIONS MAY ALSO PRODUCE              
ISOLATED FUNNEL CLOUDS.                                                         
NO UPDATES PLANNED TO ONGOING FORECAST.                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LOW TODAY WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA            
BREEZE DEVELOPING. STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY               
THRU THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...AND MOVE OFFSHORE.            
&&                                                                              
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
$$                                                                              
KELLY                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
1210 PM CDT WED JUL 202005                                                      
.AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS...                                            
SHORT TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS MAIN FORECAST ISSUE.                               
LINEAR MCS MOVING ACROSS FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMASS            
ACROSS NRN IL/NW IND BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH RUC NOWCAST            
TOOLS INDICATING 100 MB MLCAPE IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE AND CIN              
ERODING RAPIDLY. THUS EXPECT ORGANIZED LINE OF TSTMS TO CONTINUE TO             
ADVANCE ACROSS FCST AREA THIS AFTN...AFFECTING CHI AREA TERMINALS               
18-22 UTC. APPEARS THAT BY 00Z CONVECTION SHOULD BE FOCUSED SOUTH               
AND EAST OF TERMINALS AS OUTFLOW SPREADS SOUTH/EAST OF CURRENT                  
STORMS.                                                                         
SOME CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL MVFR OR EVEN IFR STRATUS/HZ/BR OVRNGT AS             
CONVECTIVELY DISTURBED WIND FIELD BECOMES LGT/VRBL. FOR NOW HAVE                
GONE WITH AN MVFR VSBY IN HZ.                                                   
RATZER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
FROM MORNING ZFP/GRIDS...                                                       
.DISCUSSION...DECENT PROSPECTS FOR SOME MUCH NEADED IF NOT TOO LATE             
RAINFALL FOR PARCHED FIELDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. CLUSTER OF TSRA            
OVR SRN MN...NWRN IA...FAR NERN NEB WHERE STG WAA AHEAD OF SHRTWV               
TROF MOVG FM NRN PLAINS TWRD UPR MIDWEST. PROFILERS SHOW GODD                   
BACKING/VEERING SIGNATURE WITH TROF PASSAGE AS WELL AS VERY STG LLVL            
FEED OF HOT AIR NNEWRD AHEAD OF TROF WITH 45-55KT SW WNDS AT H8 FRM             
TX PNHDL TO ERN NEB ANSD WRN IA. NAM SHOWS THIS ISENT LIFT RATHER               
WELL AND TRANSLATES STG UVV E ACROSS MS RIVER INTO SWRN WI AND NWRN             
IA BY 18Z AND TO SERM WI AND NERN IL BY 00Z. GFS SUFFERING FEEDBACK             
PROBS BY THIS EVE...BUT NAM ALSO BRINGS SIG...ALBEIT LESSER..QPF                
ACROSS NRN IL DUR THIS EVE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING              
TO 2+ INCHES BY 00Z THU. WILL CARRY ONLY HI CHC POPS AS TO NOT HAVE             
HOPES DASHED THO AT LEAST DECENT PORTION OF FA HAS GOOD CHC OF                  
SEEING SOME MEANINGFUL TOTALS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT OUTFLO             
REINFORCED BNDRY ACROSS SRN FA INTO TONIGHT AND THU MORNING WITH                
CONT CHC OF TSRA ALONG AND S OF IT. WITH H8 TEMPS WRMING INTO LWR               
20C RANGE TODAY AND GOOD SUN BEFORE HIER CLOUDS START ARRIVE TEMPS              
SHUD REACH LO AND MID 90S TODAY...WHILE SSE SFC WNDS ADVECT IN ONLY             
MODERATELY HI DWPTS SO HEAT INDEX SHUD ONLY FLIRT WITH 100 AT TIME              
OF MAX TEMPS. LLVLS COOLED SLIGHTLY ACROSS NRN PORTION OF FA BEHIND             
SHRTWV WITH SFC RDG BLDG ACROSS UPR MIDWEST AND NRN GRTLKS THU. SOME            
LK COOLING WL KEEP TEMPS IN 80S ALONG SHORE. ANOTHER SHRTWV DROPS               
INTO NRN GRTLKS FRI...WITH GOOD SURGE OF HEAT STARTING LATER SAT AS             
MORE SIG SHRTWV MOVS OVR UPR RDG ACROSS SRN CANADA. H8 THERMAL RDG              
OF 24-27C FCST ACROSS NR IL AT 12Z THO GFS WANTS TO PUSH ANOTHER                
CDFNT INTO NRN IL DURG DAY SO COULD PUT DAMPER ON TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPS            
FOR NRN IL SUN.                                                                 
TRS                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                                 
.IL...NONE                                                                      
.IN...NONE                                                                      
.LK MI...NONE                                                                   
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1043 AM EST WED JUL 20 2005                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
TSTMS PERSISTING IN WARM/MOIST ADVECTION ZONE OVER SRN WI THIS                  
MORNING. MAIN QUESTION IS IF STORMS WILL SURVIVE AS THEY MOVE EAST              
INTO DRIER AIR OVER CWA, BUT MOISTURE RETURN HAS BEEN FAIRLY                    
IMPRESSIVE WITH MID 70S DEWPOINTS NOW ENTERING SWRN PORTION OF CWA,             
SO FELT IT WAS WORTH MENTIONING A CHC OF TSTMS ACROSS NW PORTION OF             
CWA THIS AFTN. ALSO INCREASED DWPTS SOME IN GRIDS THIS AFTN/EVE...              
OTHERWISE, NO SGFNT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS ZONES/GRIDS.                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
QUITE SHRT TERM W/VFR XPCD. HWVR THAT SAID...THINGS IN CONSIDERABLE             
FLUX BY LT AFTN ESP W W/ESCALATING MCS POISED UPSTREAM FM CNTRL MN              
INTO NRN IA. 06Z GUIDANCE AND TREND IN RUCII OF CONSIDERABLE CONCERN            
W/QUICKER MSTR TRANSPORT NEWD THIS AFTN WHILE MAINTAINING STG LLJ               
AHD OF LINE AS EVIDENCED W/DOWNSTREAM PROFILER INDICATIONS. IT NOW              
APPEARS ONGOING CONVN OR REDVLPMNT FURTHER EWD ALG SIG LL THETA-E               
FLUX WILL OCCUR SOONER AND HAVE INTRODUCED TEMPO MENTION AT LEAST               
FOR SBN. FWA A BIT TRICKER W/850-300MB THICKNESSES AND LLJ NOSE                 
REMAINING UPSTREAM OVERNIGHT TO KEEP MCS ANCHORED OR BACKBUILDING               
WWD. WILL AT LEAST AFFORD A PROB30 FOR IT THERE.                                
OTHERWISE XPCD RAINFALL W AND AT SBN EARLY EVENING SHLD LEAD TO SOME            
MVFR VSBY RESTRICTION TWD THU AM.                                               
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
BRIEF RESPITE IN THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY OF LATE YDA BUT WK SFC                   
RIDGING YIELDING TO IMPRESSIVE RTN FLW IN ASSOCN/W SW TROUGH                    
PROGRESSING EWD ACRS MANITOBA THIS AM. TAIL END OF UPR TROF AXIS IN             
CONCERT W/STG LLJ AND SIG MSTR FLUX AIDING UPSCALE MCS EVOLUTION                
ACRS ERN SD. LTL ADDNL DVLPMNT YET FURTHER DOWNSTREAM ALG INTENSE LL            
THETA-E RIDGE BUT XPC RAPID DVLPMNT ACRS ERN MN/WRN WI YET THIS AM              
AS LLJ VEERS EWD W/TIME.                                                        
00Z GUIDANCE REASONABLY CONSISTENT W/PREV RUNS AND STILL INDICATING             
GOOD MCS POTENTIAL TONIGHT AS UPR TROF OVR SC CANADA CONTS EWD                  
W/NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENT TO LLJ BY EVENING AND INCREASING LL MASS                
FLUX ACRS NRN IL...SW MI AND NW IN. MAY VRY WELL BE SD CLUSTER                  
MAINTAINS THROUGH THE DAY AS IT SHIFTS E/SEWD BUT STILL A PLACEMENT             
ISSUE OF WHERE MESO-BETA ELEMENT WILL EXIST W/00Z INDICATION BACK               
WWD ACRS IL AND HIGHLITED BY NR 6 INCH QPF BULLSEYE S OF KORD. HWVR             
06Z INDICATION FURTHER E AND IN BTR AGREEMENT W/HIGH RES MESOSCALE              
WRF OUTPUT DICTATING MUCH HIGHER QPF POTENTIAL HERE. OBVIOUSLY                  
SOMETHING OF KEEN INTEREST GIVEN ONGOING DROUGHT AND POTENTIAL FOR              
WIDESPREAD SIG RELIEF. EITHER RATE...COMBINATION OF INTENSE LL MSTR             
FLUX AND INCREASING LG SCALE DVRG IN ASSOCN/W UPR SPEED MAX SHIFTING            
ACRS MI OVERNIGHT FAVORS A HEADY INCREASE IN POPS ROUGHLY NW HALF               
OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...SOME POTENTIAL FOR DVLPMNT YET LATE THIS               
AFTN W/NAM SUGGESTION OF WARM FNTL FGEN AS SW FLW RAPIDLY INCREASES.            
OTHERWISE...INCREASING WAA AND INSOLATION TDA SHLD BRING ABT A RTN              
OF 90+ FOR MOST EXCEPT FAR EAST.                                                
LONG TERM...                                                                    
A COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY.             
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN WITH IT. THEN THE RAIN SHOULD             
BE ENDING THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN ON                
FRIDAY. GFS80 IS TRYING TO BRING IN SOME QPF ON SUNDAY ASSOCIATED               
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IT HAS JUST TO OUR NORTH. OTHER MODELS               
SUCH AS THE DGEX DO NOT HAVE THIS AND HAVE SUNDAY DRY SO WENT WITH              
CONSISTENCY AT THIS POINT AND LEFT SUNDAY DRY. BUT THEN BOTH CURRENT            
RUNS OF GFS80 AND DGEX HAVE A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA                
NEXT TUESDAY. HOWEVER TIMING IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN YET. NO MAJOR                
CHANGES WERE DONE WITH THE TEMPERATURES. STILL LOOKING TO BE A HOT              
STRETCH COMING UP. FOR EXAMPLE...GFS HAS 850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER               
TEENS ON SATURDAY AND THEN CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 20S SUNDAY.                  
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...TAYLOR                                                                 
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HOLSTEN                                                   
LONG TERM...LOTHAMER                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
633 AM EST WED JUL 20 2005                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
QUITE SHRT TERM W/VFR XPCD. HWVR THAT SAID...THINGS IN CONSIDERABLE             
FLUX BY LT AFTN ESP W W/ESCALATING MCS POISED UPSTREAM FM CNTRL MN              
INTO NRN IA. 06Z GUIDANCE AND TREND IN RUCII OF CONSIDERABLE CONCERN            
W/QUICKER MSTR TRANSPORT NEWD THIS AFTN WHILE MAINTAINING STG LLJ               
AHD OF LINE AS EVIDENCED W/DOWNSTREAM PROFILER INDICATIONS. IT NOW              
APPEARS ONGOING CONVN OR REDVLPMNT FURTHER EWD ALG SIG LL THETA-E               
FLUX WILL OCCUR SOONER AND HAVE INTRODUCED TEMPO MENTION AT LEAST               
FOR SBN. FWA A BIT TRICKER W/850-300MB THICKNESSES AND LLJ NOSE                 
REMAINING UPSTREAM OVERNIGHT TO KEEP MCS ANCHORED OR BACKBUILDING               
WWD. WILL AT LEAST AFFORD A PROB30 FOR IT THERE.                                
OTHERWISE XPCD RAINFALL W AND AT SBN EARLY EVENING SHLD LEAD TO SOME            
MVFR VSBY RESTRICTION TWD THU AM.                                               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
BRIEF RESPITE IN THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY OF LATE YDA BUT WK SFC                   
RIDGING YIELDING TO IMPRESSIVE RTN FLW IN ASSOCN/W SW TROUGH                    
PROGRESSING EWD ACRS MANITOBA THIS AM. TAIL END OF UPR TROF AXIS IN             
CONCERT W/STG LLJ AND SIG MSTR FLUX AIDING UPSCALE MCS EVOLUTION                
ACRS ERN SD. LTL ADDNL DVLPMNT YET FURTHER DOWNSTREAM ALG INTENSE LL            
THETA-E RIDGE BUT XPC RAPID DVLPMNT ACRS ERN MN/WRN WI YET THIS AM              
AS LLJ VEERS EWD W/TIME.                                                        
00Z GUIDANCE REASONABLY CONSISTENT W/PREV RUNS AND STILL INDICATING             
GOOD MCS POTENTIAL TONIGHT AS UPR TROF OVR SC CANADA CONTS EWD                  
W/NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENT TO LLJ BY EVENING AND INCREASING LL MASS                
FLUX ACRS NRN IL...SW MI AND NW IN. MAY VRY WELL BE SD CLUSTER                  
MAINTAINS THROUGH THE DAY AS IT SHIFTS E/SEWD BUT STILL A PLACEMENT             
ISSUE OF WHERE MESO-BETA ELEMENT WILL EXIST W/00Z INDICATION BACK               
WWD ACRS IL AND HIGHLITED BY NR 6 INCH QPF BULLSEYE S OF KORD. HWVR             
06Z INDICATION FURTHER E AND IN BTR AGREEMENT W/HIGH RES MESOSCALE              
WRF OUTPUT DICTATING MUCH HIGHER QPF POTENTIAL HERE. OBVIOUSLY                  
SOMETHING OF KEEN INTEREST GIVEN ONGOING DROUGHT AND POTENTIAL FOR              
WIDESPREAD SIG RELIEF. EITHER RATE...COMBINATION OF INTENSE LL MSTR             
FLUX AND INCREASING LG SCALE DVRG IN ASSOCN/W UPR SPEED MAX SHIFTING            
ACRS MI OVERNIGHT FAVORS A HEADY INCREASE IN POPS ROUGHLY NW HALF               
OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...SOME POTENTIAL FOR DVLPMNT YET LATE THIS               
AFTN W/NAM SUGGESTION OF WARM FNTL FGEN AS SW FLW RAPIDLY INCREASES.            
OTHERWISE...INCREASING WAA AND INSOLATION TDA SHLD BRING ABT A RTN              
OF 90+ FOR MOST EXCEPT FAR EAST.                                                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
A COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY.             
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN WITH IT. THEN THE RAIN SHOULD             
BE ENDING THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN ON                
FRIDAY. GFS80 IS TRYING TO BRING IN SOME QPF ON SUNDAY ASSOCIATED               
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IT HAS JUST TO OUR NORTH. OTHER MODELS               
SUCH AS THE DGEX DO NOT HAVE THIS AND HAVE SUNDAY DRY SO WENT WITH              
CONSISTENCY AT THIS POINT AND LEFT SUNDAY DRY. BUT THEN BOTH CURRENT            
RUNS OF GFS80 AND DGEX HAVE A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA                
NEXT TUESDAY. HOWEVER TIMING IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN YET. NO MAJOR                
CHANGES WERE DONE WITH THE TEMPERATURES. STILL LOOKING TO BE A HOT              
STRETCH COMING UP. FOR EXAMPLE...GFS HAS 850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER               
TEENS ON SATURDAY AND THEN CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 20S SUNDAY.                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SFC RIDGING TO YIELD TO MODEST RTN FLW BY THIS AFTN IN ASSOCN/W SW              
TROF PROGRESSING EWD ACRS SC CANADA. TAIL END OF UPR TROF IN CONCERT            
W/STG LLJ AND PRONOUNCED MSTR FLUX HAS FIRED INTENSE CONVN ACRS ERN             
SD THIS AM AND LIKELY FORESHADOWING POTENTIAL DVLPMNTS HERE LTR                 
TONIGHT. UNTIL THEN...VFR XPCD ALTHOUGH CONTD MENTION OF TEMPO MVFR             
VSBYS AT FWA THIS AM ALG RIDGE CNTR LINE AND NARROWING T/TD SPREAD.             
OTHERWISE...INFLUXING MSTR THIS AFTN WILL MANIFEST W/INCREASING CU              
AND ULTIMATELY A CHC OF TSRA AT SBN AFT 02Z.                                    
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HOLSTEN                                                   
LONG TERM...LOTHAMER                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
800 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ZONE UPDATE HAS BEEN SENT. NO SIGNIF CHANGES TO FORECAST FOR                    
TONIGHT. STILL SOMEWHAT TRICKY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT CONVECTION WILL             
BE ABLE TO FIRE. CURRENTLY THE SURFACE FRONT HAS EDGED INTO NORTHERN            
IOWA. SFC CONVECTION REMAINS CAPPED WITH WARM LOWER/MID LEVEL                   
TEMPERATURES. DOES LOOK LIKE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WOULD OCCUR             
LATER THIS EVENING AS SPEED CONFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED OVER WEST AND NW            
IA IN THE H925-850 LAYER. JUST ABOVE THIS...ANY PARCEL LIFTED FROM              
ABOUT H800 IS PRETTY MUCH GOOD TO GO ACCORDING TO THE ETA WITH                  
LITTLE OR NO INHIBITION AND CAPES AROUND 4K J/KG. GFS AND RUC                   
MAINTAIN A CAPPING LAYER AROUND H7 AND THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO                    
SUPPRESS CONVECTION GIVEN VEERING H850 FLOW BY 06Z AND DECREASED                
CONFLUENCE/CONVERGENCE BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z. TURNS OUT INITIATING                
CONVECTION OVER IA MAY BE A MOOT POINT IF THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE                
CLUSTER IN SD CAN MAINTAIN ITSELF FOR A WHILE LONGER THIS EVENING.              
STEERING FLOW AND FORWARD PROPAGATING CORF VECTORS WOULD BRING THIS             
ESE ALONG THE ELEVATED BOUNDARY INTO BETTER LOW LEVEL FLOW AND COULD            
MAKE IT INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST                
POPS IN THE NORTHWEST. GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE POOLING AND EVAPOTRANS             
TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING PUSHING DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 70S.             
DEW PTS WILL COME DOWN SOME LATER TONIGHT BUT WILL STILL SUPPORT A              
QUITE WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT. ALL MODELS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR             
TEMPS TO NOT BE AS WARM THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. MADE           
SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN OUTER PERIODS WITH THIS IN MIND AND TO BRING US             
INTO BETTER COLLAB.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JAW                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ia                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
1034 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2005                                                     
.MID MORNING UPDATE...                                                          
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING EXTENSIVE BLANKET OF FOG AND LOW               
STRATUS COVERING MUCH OF THE BLUEGRASS REGION THIS MORNING.  WHILE              
SOLAR INSOLATION HAS BEGUN IN EARNEST...STRATUS AND FOG STILL MIXING            
OUT SLOWLY.  LATEST RUC FORECASTS INDICATE THAT IT MAY BE AROUND 17Z            
BEFORE THIS CLEARS OUT COMPLETELY.                                              
REST OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS POINT.  STILL                
EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO FIRE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE                  
AFTERNOON HOURS.  K INDICES AND WMSI VALUES SUGGEST DOWNBURSTS WILL             
BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS...LIKE WE SAW YESTERDAY            
OVER THE BLUEGRASS REGION.  OTHER STORY WILL BE THE HEAT.  WITH                 
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED...AFTERNOON READINGS WILL TOP             
OUT IN THE LOW 90S.  COMBINE THAT WITH LOW TO MID 70S                           
DEWPOINTS...HEAT INDEX READINGS OF 100-105 ARE POSSIBLE THIS                    
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
UPDATED FORECAST PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT BY 1100 AM EDT.                           
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.IN...NONE.                                                                     
.KY...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JARVIS                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
635 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2005                                                      
.EARLY MORNING UPDATE...                                                        
FAIRLY SOLID AREA OF LOW CIGS HAS DEVELOPED OVER A GOOD PART OF THE             
FCST AREA...BASICALLY S/E OF A FORT KNOX TO FRANKFORT LINE. LOCALIZED           
VSBYS NEAR 1/2-1SM...BUT MOST AREAS STILL ABOUT 1-3SM OR SO.                    
LOUISVILLE VWP SHOWING 10KT WINDS IN LOWEST 1KFT AGL...MORE                     
SUPPORTIVE OF LOW STRATUS VERSUS FOG. TAFS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO                 
REFLECT THIS...BUT WILL UPDATE PUBLIC FCSTS TO EXPAND PATCHY MORNING            
FOG. LATEST RUC BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS LOW CLOUD LAYER                      
LIFTING/DISSIPATING BY AROUND 9-10 AM...WILL INCORPORATE THIS LATEST            
THINKING INTO THE 12 UTC ISSUANCES OF THE TAFS. REST OF FORECAST                
REMAINS UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME. CS                                              
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TONIGHT)...                                                  
MUCH QUIETER OVERNIGHT PERIOD COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT...WITH SIMPLY              
SOME SCT HIGH CLOUDS AND PATCHY LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING. SOME HINTS OF             
A LOW-LEVEL BKN CIG DEVELOPING IN SRN KY...WILL HAVE TO WATCH. WATER            
VAPOR DATA SHOWING A DISTINCT E-W ORIENTED MOISTURE BOUNDARY OVER THE           
OHIO VALLEY...WHICH IS ALSO SEEN IN THE 0Z SOUNDING DATA...WITH DRY             
AIR ABOVE 800MB OVER MUCH OF INDIANA/OHIO AND FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE              
OVER MUCH OF KENTUCKY INTO TENNESSEE. RECENT KSDF ACARS SOUNDINGS               
SHOW THIS DRY POCKET ALOFT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD AT LEAST TO THE I-64               
LATITUDE. HAVE NOTED THE 0Z NCEP MODEL ANALYSES DO NOT CAPTURE THE              
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT...RATHER THEY BROADEN IT OUT WITH PW VALUES             
TOO HIGH AT KILX AND KILN.                                                      
0Z NAM DOES SHOW THIS AREA OF RELATIVELY LOW PW/K-INDICES MOVING                
E/NE WITH TIME TODAY...LEAVING MUCH OF THE LMK FCST AREA IN A                   
FAVORABLE AIRMASS FOR SOME TSRA DEVELOPMENT. WATER VAPOR/RUC ANALYSES           
INDICATING A NUMBER OF UPPER SHORTWAVES UPSTREAM WHICH COULD HELP               
TRIGGER CONVECTION TODAY...THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE WITH SCT TYPE POPS           
MAINLY THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVE HOURS. THE WET MICROBURST INDEX             
(WMSI) PERFORMED WELL YESTERDAY INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY           
WINDS ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR AND WE DID HAVE SOME SVR WINDS OVER IN            
THE LEX AREA. TODAYS WMSI OFF THE NAM FCST INDICATING SIMILAR                   
POTENTIAL FOR 40-50 MPH GUSTS OVER THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE FCST                 
AREA...WITH PERHAPS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT OVER THOSE AREA                    
ENHANCING DOWNBURST POTENTIAL. SPOTS OF HVY RAIN ALSO POSSIBLE WITH             
RELATIVELY LIGHT STEERING FLOW.                                                 
INTO TONIGHT...BOTH NCEP MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME TYPE OF MCS                    
DEVELOPMENT IN THEIR QPF FIELDS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES               
REGION IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET. THINK THIS ACTIVITY             
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FCST AREA...THOUGH IT COULD MOVE SE INTO               
INDIANA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. WILL PUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER            
CLOUD COVERAGE VALUES IN OUR SRN IND/LOU ZONES WITH THIS FEATURE.               
REGARDING TEMPERATURES...AGAIN THE MAV/GFS-MOS HAS BEEN PERFORMING              
WELL THE PAST FEW DAYS AND SEE NO REAL REASON TO DEVIATE MUCH FROM              
THOSE NUMBERS. HEAT INDEX VALUES AGAIN HAVE POTENTIAL TO RISE INTO              
THE 98-103 RANGE THIS AFTN...WILL HIGHLIGHT IN HWO. CS                          
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY-TUESDAY)...                                                
UPPER AIR PATTERN THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL FEATURE A STRONG DOME            
OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH                   
NORTHWEST FLOW ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THIS RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT               
LAKES. A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES           
THURSDAY. BOTH NAM AND GFS HINT AT ORGANIZED CONVECTION DEVELOPING              
DURING THE DAY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS MAY DEVELOP INTO            
AN OVERNIGHT MCS...MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA                 
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SHOULD THIS MATERIALIZE...OUR CWA MAY                 
RECEIVE SOME OVERNIGHT CONVECTION LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE EARLY               
MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. FEEL THAT THE GFS IS OVERDONE WITH CONVECTIVE             
DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL CONTINUE THINKING OF                  
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND HOLD WITH 30 POPS ACROSS CWA THURSDAY NIGHT AND           
FRIDAY.                                                                         
THE HEAT WILL REALLY BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND. CENTER OF 500MB RIDGE            
WILL MIGRATE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY TO THE LOWER MISSOURI            
VALLEY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ETA IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN GFS WITH THE            
HEAT...BRINGING IN 30+ TEMPERATURES AT 925MB BY SATURDAY. EVEN THE              
GFS...WHICH HAS BEEN COOLER AND MORE ACCURATE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURE             
FORECASTS RECENTLY ...IS ADVERTISING MID 90S FOR HIGHS THIS WEEKEND.            
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE               
SEASON SO FAR...IN FACT...THE WARMEST OF THE PAST TWO YEARS. WITH               
FORECAST TEMPERATURES DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S...HEAT INDEXES MAY             
REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.                                                   
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY MAY COOL A BIT AS RIDGE RETROGRADES             
A BIT BACK WEST. ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY           
MAY BRING A CHANCE OF CONVECTION TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. JSD                  
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.IN...NONE.                                                                     
.KY...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
358 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS EVENING AND                
AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING.                                                           
CURRENT WEATHER...18Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS            
SHOWED ZONAL FLOW EXTENDING ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER FROM                 
VANCOUVER ISLAND TO LAKE SUPERIOR. THREE SHRTWVS TO NOTE WITHIN THE             
FLOW...ONE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED ONE OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN...A                  
SECOND SYNOPTIC ONE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND ANOTHER IN CENTRAL                
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING OVER            
SOUTHERN ALBERTA AHEAD OF THE THIRD SHRTWV. CONVECTIVELY INDUCED                
SHRTWV OVER CENTRAL WI CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS                 
MENOMINEE COUNTY...THOUGH THESE HAVE REALLY WEAKENED DURING THE PAST            
FEW HOURS AS THE BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE              
SHRTWV. CLEARING HAS COMMENCED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SHRTWV ACROSS            
WESTERN WISCONSIN AND WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES            
TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S. A FEW CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THIS AREA            
OF HEATING ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV                
TROUGH OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO...EVIDENCE THAT THE CAP MAYBE TRYING TO            
BREAK. 18Z TAMDAR SOUNDING FROM RHI MODIFIED WITH AN 86 TEMPERATURE             
AND 61 DEWPOINT SHOWED ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO BREAK THE CAP. SIMILAR             
STORY AT CMX LOOKING AT THEIR 18Z TAMDAR SOUNDING. FURTHER TO THE               
WEST...SOME MID LEVEL ACCAS STRETCHES ALONG US-2 FROM NEAR GLASGOW              
TO DULUTH AND A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE OCCURRED WITH IT             
THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THIS HAS NOW WEAKENED AS MID-LEVEL                      
FRONTOGENESIS IS FALLING APART. TO THE NORTH OF THIS...SOME BROKEN              
LOW CLOUD IS PRESENT ACROSS NW ONTARIO BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.                   
TONIGHT...WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS              
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA. THIS IS IN CASE ANY             
OF THE CUMULUS ACTUALLY DEVELOP TO THE WEST. NOT SURE IF IT WILL GO             
BECAUSE OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHRTWV AS SEEN BY DRYING ON WATER              
VAPOR...HOWEVER GIVEN THE TAMDAR SOUNDING MODIFICATIONS...HAVE A                
HARD TIME REMOVING PRECIP. IF ANYTHING DOES FORM...0-6 KM SHEAR IS              
ONLY 20-25 KT AND WITH HIGH FREEZING LEVELS (ON THE ORDER OF 13.0               
KFT)...SHOULD NOT HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT HAIL. SFC-5000 FT DELTA                   
THETA-E HOWEVER IS AROUND 25 C/KM...SO COULD NOT RULE OUT A DAMAGING            
WIND GUSTS. GIVEN THE FAST ZONAL FLOW...ANY CONVECTION  WILL PUSH               
EAST OF THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT             
WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOW CLOUDS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS ISLE ROYALE INTO            
THE KEWEENAW LATE. A FEW MID CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE ACCAS                 
FIELD...COULD MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MENOMINEE COUNTY LATE TOO AS THE             
MID-LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. WITH DRIER AIR                 
MOVING IN FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA (DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW            
50S) AND CLEAR SKIES...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES DROP AT LEAST INTO               
THE MID 50S. SOME NORTHERLY BREEZE BEHIND THE FRONT IS WHAT WILL                
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING THE DEWPOINTS.                                  
THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN IS STILL PROGGED            
TO MOVE OVER UPPER MICHIGAN BY EVENING BEHIND TONIGHT\S COLD FRONT.             
NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL HELP BRING IN                 
DRIER AIR INTO UPPER MICHIGAN... ALLOWING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO                
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO KEEP             
LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE AREAS COOLER WITH THE INTERIOR AND NEAR LAKE            
MICHIGAN WARMER. 12-14C 850MB TEMPS YIELD HIGHS IN THE 70S TO AROUND            
80S...AGAIN WARMEST SOUTH.                                                      
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SHRTWV OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA IS                    
EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY MORNING AND BY               
00Z SAT IT IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN ONTARIO. 12Z NAM              
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A DECENT SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SHRTWV...HOWEVER            
IN COMPARISON TO ALL THE MODELS IT IS AN OUTLIER. GFS...UKMET AND               
CANADIAN ARE MUCH WEAKER WITH THE SURFACE REFLECTION...ONLY SHOWING             
AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN FRI MORNING. PREFER             
THE WEAKER SURFACE REFLECTION DUE TO THE SHRTWV MOVING RAPIDLY                  
THROUGH THE WNW FLOW PROGGED ALOFT AT 500MB. IN EITHER THE WEAK OR              
DEEP SURFACE REFLECTION CASES...ALL FOUR MODELS CONTINUE TO PRINT               
OUT A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF (ESPECIALLY THE GFS DUE TO CONVECTIVE                
FEEDBACK). THIS QPF IS A RESULT OF A 30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET WHICH                
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV...IMPINGING ON A THETA-E RIDGE.                    
800-600MB FRONTOGENESIS FIELDS REFLECT THIS TOO BY SHOWING AN AREA              
OF STRONG CONVERGENCE MOVING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. HAVE UPPED POPS             
TO 40 PERCENT FOR FRIDAY MORNING...THOUGH COULD EASILY SEE LIKELY               
POPS OR GREATER NEEDED. ELEVATED CAPES (LIFTED FROM 875-900MB) ARE              
1000-1500 J/KG WITH NO CIN...SO THUNDER WILL DEFINITELY OCCUR.                  
FREEZING LEVELS AND WET-BULB ZERO LEVELS ARE AROUND 12.5 AND 10.5               
KFT RESPECTIVELY PRIOR TO THE CONVECTION. WITH 1-6 KM SHEAR PRIOR TO            
CONVECTION OF 30-35KT...COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME LARGE HAIL. KEPT QPF            
DOWN FOR THE MOMENT AS THE SYSTEM IS A FAST MOVER. BEHIND                       
IT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE U.P. AS HIGH PRESSURE            
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CURRENT GOING HIGHS FOR FRIDAY              
LOOK REASONABLE.                                                                
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...CONTINUING TO FOLLOW THE 12Z                       
GFS/UKMET...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE U.P. DURING THE                    
EVENING...ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR AND WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT. HAVE               
DROPPED LOW TEMPERATURES BY 5-8 DEGREES IN THE INTERIOR TO ACCOUNT              
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. AIR MASS PRECIPITABLE WATER IS ONLY AROUND             
0.5 INCH...SUPPORTING THE COOLING IN THE INTERIOR. MAY NEED TO DROP             
TEMPERATURES MORE AS MET GUIDANCE INDICATES. THIS DRY AIR MASS                  
SHOULD ALSO KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY AS LOW                
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OUT IN THE PLAINS. RETURN FLOW SHOULD BE GOING IN             
EARNEST CLOSE TO THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER BY               
00Z SUN CLIMBING INTO THE 1.5 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE OVER MINNESOTA INTO            
NW WI. WITH THE RETURN FLOW...SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS MAY OCCUR             
ACROSS THE CWA...BUT OTHERWISE THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.              
850MB TEMPS OF 12-14C AGAIN SUPPORT READINGS SIMILAR TO THOSE OF                
FRIDAY.                                                                         
EXTENDED (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...NEGATIVE NAO PATTERN SETTING              
UP THIS WEEKEND SHOWN BY THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS WILL ALLOW 500MB               
HEIGHTS TO FALL DURING THE BEGINNING PART OF NEXT WEEK. HOW QUICK               
THEY FALL IS UNCERTAIN...WHICH CAN BE SEEN BY THE DIFFERENCES                   
BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF AT 00Z WED. THERE ARE EVEN A FEW                  
DIFFERENCES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH THE 00Z ECMWF                   
SHOWING A DEEP LOW OVER MAINE AT 00Z SUN. THIS APPEARS TO BE AN                 
OUTLIER AMONGST THE MODELS AND WAS NOT PREFERRED BY HPC. A MORE                 
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH SHOWN BY THE GFS/UKMET SEEMS TO BE MORE                      
REASONABLE. THESE MODELS WOULD ALLOW FOR A SHRTWV TO MOVE ACROSS THE            
NORTHERN TIER SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BRINGING SOME CONVECTION TO                
UPPER MICHIGAN. GFS HAS SHOWN THIS CONVECTION FOR MANY RUNS...AND               
STILL DOES ON THE 12Z RUN. MUCH OF THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BE OUT OF             
THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING AS A STATIONARY FRONT IS PUT DOWN ACROSS                
SOUTHERN WI AND NORTHERN IOWA. A STRONGER SHRTWV OVER BRITISH                   
COLUMBIA SUNDAY MORNING WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH SUN NIGHT...RESULTING            
IN A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...BRINGING THE STATIONARY            
FRONT NORTHWARD. 00Z CANADIAN PUSHES IT THROUGH THE CWA ON                      
MON...HOWEVER THE GFS RUNS/UKMET AND THE ECMWF ONLY BRING IT INTO               
CENTRAL WI BY 00Z TUE. PREFER THE FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTIONS AS IT IS              
TYPICAL FOR THESE FRONTS TO REMAIN FURTHER SOUTH...ESPECIALLY IF ANY            
CONVECTION FIRES ALONG IT. WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR -TSRA IN FOR                  
MONDAY...BUT THINK BETTER CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE WI BORDER.                  
CHANCES PERSIST INTO MON NIGHT AS THE SHRTWV TO THE WEST APPROACHES.            
GFS ALSO HAS SHOWN THIS RAIN FOR MANY RUNS NOW. WILL DRY THINGS ON              
TUE...THOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED FOR CHANCES TO BE EXPANDED IF               
THE SHRTWV SLOWS UP. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS THEN PROGGED TO DEVELOP              
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA FOR WED WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS            
IN ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN FROM THE PLAINS.                                       
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AJ                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
445 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN WITH THIS UPDATE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS               
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/ETA SHOWING A CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON BAY            
WITH A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN CONUS AND SOUTHERN CANADA.            
RACING THROUGH THE FLOW IS A SHORTWAVE WHICH STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN            
MINNESOTA THROUGH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE HUDSON BAY LOW.                  
ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE IS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. SURFACE                 
ANALYSIS SHOWING A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY              
THROUGH WESTERN ONTARIO TO A LOW OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA.                         
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FIRING ALONG A THETA-E RIDGE OVER CENTRAL IOWA AND            
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. KAPX AND KGRB SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING SHOW THAT             
IT IS VERY DRY ABOVE THE SURFACE. PRECIPITATION WATER WAS ON THE                
ORDER OF .6 AND .8 IN. INTERNATIONAL FALLS SOUNDING THIS MORNING                
SHOWING A VERY STRONG CAP DUE TO CONSIDERABLE WARM AIR ADVECTION AT             
800MB. ETA12 SHOWING CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE               
FRONT...WHILE RUC SEEMS TO BE FOCUSING THIS OVER WISCONSIN.                     
COMPARING RADAR AND SATELLITE REPORTS TO THE FORECAST SOUNDING...IT             
APPEARS THAT RUC HAS A MUCH BETTER HANDLE ON THE PRECIPITATION THAN             
ETA.                                                                            
THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS               
AFTERNOON. 850-500MB Q-VECTOR ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE                
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY                
EARLY AFTERNOON THEN SHFIT QUICKLY INTO EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO. RUC               
DOES SEEM TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE                
THETA-E PROJECTS THE HIGHEST OVER WISCONSIN AND IOWA THIS AFTERNOON.            
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A THETA-E RIDGE THAT STRETCH ACROSS THE U.P.            
CHECKING THE RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE SOUTHWESTERN               
COUNTIES WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF RECEIVING SOME THUNDERSTORMS.             
THE QUESTION IS WILL THERE BE ENOUGH MOISTURE GENERATE                          
THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS SHOW A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER MIDDLE                 
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.                  
MOISTURE OVER RUNNING THIS FRONT WILL POSSIBLY KEEP THIS MOISTURE A             
LITTLE TO THE SOUTH. NEVER THE LESS...RUC AND ETA CONTINUE PUSH                 
SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW 70S OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.               
THIS WILL PRODUCE CAPE VALUES AS HIGH 3500J/KG ALONG THE WISCONSIN              
BORDER. LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE INDICATE SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL ONLY              
REACH INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S...WHICH MAKES THIS LITTLE LESS                 
LIKELY. THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM                  
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND A POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS             
TO DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE EAST TO ADJACENT COUNTIES. WILL KEEP                  
THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIAL GOING FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE THE               
POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECASTS SEEM              
TO BE APPROPRIATE.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DLG                                                                             
DLG                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1110 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SURFACE TROUGH SITUATED FROM NE MN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN AND WILL               
CONTINUE ESE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. DECENT SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE              
CONVECTION THIS MORNING. LATEST RUC AND NAM IN AGREEMENT THAT LOW               
LEVEL FLOW AND BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE FOCUSED TO OUR SOUTH THIS               
AFTERNOON. WEAK LOW LEVEL MOIST CONV FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT              
WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS AS WELL. WEAKEST CAP WILL BE IN WI COUNTIES.               
HAVE DROPPED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR AFTERNOON AS WELL AS THIS EVENING FOR            
A START. ALSO RAISED TEMPS A BIT IN FEW AREAS.                                  
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.MN...NONE.                                                                     
.WI...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JPR                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                            
145 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
LOTS TO THINK ABOUT WITH THIS FCST...SUMMER WX IS NOT ALWAYS                    
EASY.                                                                           
TONIGHT...ISOLD AMS ACTIVITY BREAKING OUT OVR SRN PTNS OF THE CWA               
SHUD DIE OUT WITH EVENING HRS. LOOK FOR MCS TO FORM ON THE OUTFLOW              
BOUNDARY FROM TODAY'S ACTIVITY.  CELL IN SW CORNER OF IOWA IS NEAR              
THE NOSE OF THE LLJ. RUC SHOWS CORFIDI VECTORS BCMG MORE NORTHERLY              
BY EVENING AND INCREASING. LOOKS LIKE SOME ACTIVITY MAY DROP                    
SOUTHEAST INTO OUR CWA SO WILL PUT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THAT.                     
WILL START EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING AT 700 AM THURSDAY AND CONTINUE IT            
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.  THUNDERSTORMS MAY COMPLICATE THE NUMBERS A             
TIME OR TWO...BUT OVERALL LONG TERM HEAT EFFECTS WILL BE JUST AS                
DANGEROUS...PARTICULARLY THIS WEEKEND.  CUBS/CARDS AND SEVERAL                  
MAJOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ON TAP AND THIS IS THE HOTTEST WX OF THE               
SEASON THUS FAR...COULD TAKE A TOLL.  IN ADDITION THIS WILL GIVE                
THOSE ASSISTING IN HEAT RELIEF A LITTLE TIME TO SET UP FOR THE                  
WEEKEND.                                                                        
HOTTEST CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CENTERED AROUND THE WEEKEND.  850MB             
TEMPS REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND A               
SFC LOW IN THE PLAINS WILL TURN THE WINDS TO MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT            
...A NECESSARY INGREDIENT FOR EXTREMELY HOT TEMPS HERE.                         
 &&                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR 700AM THURSDAY              
THROUGH 700 PM SUNDAY.                                                          
IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR 700AM THURSDAY              
THROUGH 700 PM SUNDAY.                                                          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PEDIGO                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
944 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS WITH CLUSTER OF STORMS             
OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. EXPECT AMPLE MOISTURE AND             
INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE WITH LOW LEVEL FORCING THROUGH THE NIGHT               
TO HELP SUSTAIN CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA SHORTLY AFTER                
MIDNIGHT...DESPITE QUITE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS. THESE STORMS HAVE HAD            
A HISTORY OF PRODUCING BASEBALL SIZE HAIL OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH              
DAKOTA. NOT SO SURE THAT WILL HAPPEN OVER THE CWA...BUT SOME                    
LARGE HAIL IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS. THE                
LATEST RUC THOUGH INDICATES THAT CAPPING EFFECTS WILL STRENGTHEN INTO           
EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WITH TIME...AND EXPECT                      
ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN BY THEN.                                                   
&&                                                                              
DEE                                                                             
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
240 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005                                                      
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE TIMING OF PRECIP OVER THE NEXT                 
COUPLE OF DAYS AND RESULTANT MAX TEMPERATURES AND EXACTLY WHERE THE             
BOUNDARIES WILL SET UP.                                                         
IN THE SHORT TERM...12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED VERY SUBTLE                
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH 10M HEIGHT FALLS                
NOTED...ALONG WITH A 60KT SPEED MAX. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO             
CONVECTIVE INITIATION...MOSTLY LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA               
AHEAD OF ALONG A COLD FRONT EDGING SOUTHWARD. H70 TEMPERATURES                  
INDICATED WE WERE WELL CAPPED...THUS WE'LL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL            
TONIGHT FOR CONVECTION TO REALLY GET GOING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST            
NEBRASKA. WHATEVER MCS DEVELOPS WILL LIKELY SLIDE EAST SOUTHEAST AND            
MOVE INTO IOWA...AND COULD POSSIBLY LINGER ALONG AND EAST OF THE                
MISSOURI RIVER THURSDAY MORNING...IN SIMILAR FASHION TO WHAT                    
HAPPENED TODAY. NEVERTHELESS...THIS WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON                 
FORECAST HIGHS FOR THURSDAY...WITH POINTS NORTH OF I80 ON THE COOLER            
SIDE AND POINTS OFF TO THE SOUTH STILL VERY HOT WITH HIGHS NEAR 100             
AGAIN. ELEVATED DEWPOINTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HEAT INDICES ABOVE 105.            
OFFICIALLY...TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY...WE ALSO NEED NIGHTTIME LOWS             
AROUND 80 OR ABOVE.  THUS...WE'RE NOT EXPECTING TO MEET THOSE                   
CONDITIONS WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...THEREFORE WE'LL                  
CONTINUE TO MENTION HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE ZFP AND HIGHLIGHT THE              
IMPACTS IN THE HWO.                                                             
THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT SEEMS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE'RE                     
EXPECTING TONIGHT...WITH THE RING OF FIRE REDEVELOPING IN SIMILAR               
FASHION AS IT DOES TONIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS                  
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA WITH A SIGNIFICANT CAP EXPECTED FOR THE            
DAYLIGHT HOURS...BUT SHOULD SEE ANOTHER MCS DEVELOP INTO NORTHEAST              
NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT AND ROLL EAST SOUTHEAST TOWARD IOWA. THIS               
SECOND MCS PERHAPS DEVELOPS JUST A BIT FURTHER DEEPER INTO OUR CWFA             
THOUGHT. THIS                                                                   
WILL AGAIN DRIVE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO OUR CWA AND COULD POSE               
QUITE A CHALLENGE IN DEFINING TEMPERATURES. AGAIN AM EXPECTING                  
COOLER TEMPS ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES TO              
THE SOUTHWEST.                                                                  
SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS THE               
SURFACE LOW REDEVELOPS WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA.               
LOOKING FOR HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 100 FOR JUST ABOVE ALL AREAS WITH DRY             
CONDITIONS.  SUNDAY SHOULD BE QUITE SIMILAR...BUT PERHAPS JUST A BIT            
COOLER ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AS ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY BEGINS             
TO MOVE IN. MONDAY APPEARS TO BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...BUT MAYBE A                
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER BASED ON JUST A FEW MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED. WE               
MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY THROUGH               
SUNDAY AS NIGHTTIME LOWS DURING THAT TIME WILL LIKELY BE IN THE                 
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80.                                                           
LOOKS LIKE RELIEF IS IN SIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY FINALLY            
MAKES A DECENT PUSH INTO THE CWFA MONDAY NIGHT. THAT LOOKS LIKE OUR             
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION (BEYOND THE SYSTEMS THAT DEVELOP             
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT). THE FRONT PUSHES WELL SOUTH OF THE                 
REGION BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK INTO THE              
MID TO UPPER 80S...EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.                                  
&&                                                                              
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DEWALD                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ne                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
1004 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2005                                                     
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED GREATLY DURING THE EVENING.                
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW CHANCE POPS              
WILL BE DROPPED AFTER MIDNIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES ANTICIPATED.                   
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA)                       
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                        
ISOLD CONVECTION REMAINS PACKED ACROSS THE RIDGES AND OVER THE SE               
WITH LIMITED COVERAGE OVER THE CWA ATTM IN WAKE OF WORKED OVER ATMOS            
FROM TUE TSRA. GIVEN BEST INSTAB OVER THE SE AND ONLY WEAK MCON PLAN            
TO HAVE POP GRADIENT FROM LOW CHC NW TO 40ISH SE FOR A COUPLE HOURS             
THIS EVENING. RUC THEN SHOWS LACK OF MUCH PRECIP OTHER THAN ISOLD               
SHRA OVERNGT SO WILL CONT WITH LITTLE CHC AFTER MIDNGT. WILL THROW              
IN SOME PATCHY FOG MAINLY W PER RH AND DECENT FOG STAB VALUES OTRW              
PC WARM/HUMID WITH LOWS LOW/MID 70S. LINGERING LEE TROF APPEARS TO              
BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR AT LEAST SCTD CONVECTION THU AS WEAK MOISTURE             
ADVECTION RETURNS ESPCLY SRN/SW ZONES. THIS IN COMBO WITH EVEN                  
HIGHER PWATS...DECENT CAPE AND LIGHT S/SW FLOW SUPPORTS AT LEAST                
WDLY SCTD TSRA...SO CHCY POPS ESPCLY E ALONG LEE TROF CONVERGENCE.              
HIGHS GNRLY LOW/MID 90S WHICH MAY AGAIN PUSH INDICES CLOSE TO ADVSRY            
LEVELS WELL SE OF THE TRIAD.                                                    
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                 
TSRA MAY LINGER INTO THU EVENING ALTHO LOOKS LIKE DIURNAL NATURE                
WILL CUT OFF COVERAGE OVERNGT PER DRIER NAM/CANADIAN SOLNS. WILL UP             
CHCS SOME IN THE EVENING AND GO WITH LOW END CHC OVRNGT TO MATCH                
BETTER...OTRW 30-40 POP. MODELS SHARPEN 5H TROF A BIT FRI WITH THE              
GFS INDICATING ENHANCED LIFT ESPCLY ERN HALF FRI AFTN UNDER HIGH                
CAPES AND PWATS. SINCE OTHER GUIDANCE WEAKER...WILL ONLY RAISE POPS             
A NOTCH...GNRLY BELOW GFS VALUES SINCE LIKELY OVERDONE AT THIS                  
POINT. TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER BUT STILL MAY BE CLOSE TO NPW LEVELS SE            
IF PRECIP/CLOUDS END UP LESS. SHRA LINGERS INTO FRI EVENING BEFORE              
APCH OF NEXT BACKDOOR COLD FRONT EDGES DEEP RH S OF THE AREA SAT                
MORNING. IN FACT APPEARS COULD END UP IN BETWEEN THE TWO BY SAT AFTN            
WITH WEAK COMPRESSION BOOSTING TEMPS A CAT HIGHER THAN MOS PENDING              
CLOUDS. THUS PLAN TO CONFINE ANY SLGT CHC POPS TO MAINLY THE                    
SANDHILLS/COASTAL PLAINS FOR NOW. OTRW PLAN TO BOOST TEMPS AGAIN                
WITH SOME UPR 90S PSBL SE THIRD SAT AFTN.                                       
WEAK COOL FRONT WILL BASICALLY WASH OUT OVER OR JUST N OF THE REGION            
SAT NGT INTO SUNDAY WHILE MAJORITY OF DEEP RH LIKELY SHIFTS TO THE S            
UNDER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE MID ATLC. MAY STILL HAVE SOME                   
LINGERING CONVECTIVE CHCS ESPCLY SRN ZONES SAT EVENING...OTRW WILL              
TAPER POPS OFF SAT NGT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY AS DEEPER LOW              
LEVEL E/NE FLOW DEVELOPS. CENTRAL STATES HEAT DOME/RIDGE STARTS TO              
BUILD E LATER SUNDAY THRU TUE BEFORE RIDGING FLATTENS WED AHEAD OF              
NEXT APCHG S/W TROF FROM THE NW. NW FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY INTO MON ON               
THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LEAVE A FAINT WEAKNESS FOR                
PSBL MCS FEATURES TO DIVE SE TOWARD THE AREA THRU MONDAY NGT. SINCE             
IFFY AS TO SRN EXTENT...WILL TIME SLGT CHC TSRA LATE SUNDAY AND                 
AGAIN DURING MON AS CAP MAY BE WEAKER BY THEN. OTRW INCRSG HEAT FOR             
EARLY WEEK WITH SOME UPR 90S/NR 100 PSBL CENTRAL/SRN TIER MON-TUE               
WHEN 85H VALUES PUSH 22-24C UNDER WEAK W/SW FLOW. COLD FRONT SHOULD             
APPROACH LATE WED BUT LIKELY SLOWER THAN GFS GIVEN STRENGTH OF RIDGE            
AND RESIDUAL HEATING. WILL INCLUDE A CHC POP WED AFTN FOR PREFRONTAL            
RH WITH TEMPS SLGHTLY COOLER ESPCLY TRIAD ZONES.                                
AVIATION...                                                                     
ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS FROM              
MARION NC TO STUART VA THIS AFTERNOON. SECOND AREA DEVELOPING NEAR              
SEA BREEZE FRONT. LAPS INDICATED SOME SFC CONVERGENCE AT 17Z OVER               
THE SANDHILLS. ISOLD TO SCT MVFR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION               
EXPECTED AFT 20Z. AREAS OF FOG AND HAZE FORMING AGAIN OVERNIGHT                 
GENERALLY AFT 09Z WITH WET GROUND AND LIGHT WINDS. ADDITIONAL                   
DIURNAL MVFR CONVECTION THURSDAY.                                               
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...RHJ                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
309 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...                                 
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THIS AFTERNOON BEARS QUITE A RESEMBLANCE TO                
YESTERDAY. THE SEA BREEZE HAS ALREADY ACTIVATED AND CUMULUS FIELDS              
INDICATE THAT THE PIEDMONT TROUGH IS GETTING CLOSE TO CONVECTIVE                
INITIATION AS WELL. RUC OMEGA FIELDS REALLY SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD                 
HANDLE ON THE SITUATION. CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO LOSE STEAM WITH               
SUNSET ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES BUT ONCE AGAIN THE RUC SUGGESTS              
THAT IT MAY FIRE LONGER NEAR AND WEST OF I95...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT.           
TRAINING ECHOES AND/OR SLOW MOVEMENT COULD BRING A HEAVY RAIN                   
THREAT. THE TENDENCY OF SOME OF THE STORM TO REACH EL AOA 50KFT                 
CAN BRING VERY FREQUENT LIGHTNING TOO.                                          
THE PATTERN WILL SHOW LITTLE CHANGE INTO TOMORROW...MEANING A                   
REPEAT OF THE CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND ALSO                     
ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE WHOLE AREA.                                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                        
MID LEVEL RIDGE RETROGRADES ON FRIDAY AND NORTHWEST FLOW TAKES                  
OVER. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE SURFACE PATTERN THOUGH. THE TROPICAL               
WAVE MOVING INTO THE BAHAMAS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING TO THE              
WEST AS OPPOSED TO TURN TO THE NORTWEST AS HINTED AT BY SOME 12Z                
MODEL RUNS. CHANCE POPS WILL THUS CONTINUE WITH THE AFTERNOON AND               
EVENING HOURS STILL BRINGING THE MOST LIKELY WINDOW OF                          
OPPORTUNITY. BY SUNDAY THOUGH THE RIDGE PUSHES BACK TO THE EAST IN              
A BIG WAY...ALL BUT SQUASHING ANY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND                  
CONTINUING THE SPELL OF HOT WEATHER.                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP THIS                                
AFTERNOON AND HAVE OPTED TO REFRAIN FROM MENTION OF POPS. RESULTANT             
SEA-BREEZE UNDERWAY ALONG THE COAST...WHICH SHOULD FURTHER HINDER               
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT THERE AS WELL. OTHERWISE...THE PATTERN                   
REMAINS THE SAME...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME INTRUSIONS INTO MVFR                
CIGS FROM TIME TO TIME.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
SW FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE AXIS OF             
THE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINING JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. WIND SPEEDS             
DRIVEN BY THE SYNOPTIC PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD AVERAGE 10 KT OR                
SO...BUT THE SEABREEZE SHOULD ADD 5-8 KNOTS TO THIS DURING THE                  
AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS MODELS ARE                  
TAKING THE STRONG WAVE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA NW AND RECURVING IT OFF              
THE FL EAST COAST FRIDAY. THIS IS NOT SUPPORTED BY HPC OR NHC WHO               
INSTEAD FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO REMAIN ON A MORE WNW                             
PATH...POTENTIALLY CROSSING FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND. IRONICALLY THIS               
MEANS OUR SW WINDS COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE MODELS SHOW              
FRIDAY WITH SURFACE PRESSURES REMAINING HIGHER OFFSHORE.                        
ASIDE FROM LOCALLY GENERATED WIND WAVES...WAVEWATCH IS SUGGESTING WE            
WILL DEAL WITH INCOMING SWELL FROM THE LONG EASTERLY FETCH ACROSS               
THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC. THE FIRST IS A 10-11 SECOND 3 FT SWELL                
CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE WATERS FROM THE ESE. THIS SHOULD PEAK OUT               
LATE TONIGHT...AND SLOWLY DIMINISH TO 1-2 FT THURSDAY THROUGH                   
SUNDAY. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ANY SCA CRITERIA THROUGH            
THE PERIOD.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FOR NCZ087-096-097-099>101 UNTIL 6 PM                        
WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN FROM NOON TO 6 PM THURSDAY.                               
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FOR SCZ017- 023-024- 032 >034-039- 046 UNTIL 6               
PM WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN FROM NOON TO 6 PM THURSDAY.                            
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...MBB                                                      
AVIATION...SHK                                                                  
MARINE...TRA                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                
240 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                       
ISOLD CONVECTION REMAINS PACKED ACROSS THE RIDGES AND OVER THE SE               
WITH LIMITED COVERAGE OVER THE CWA ATTM IN WAKE OF WORKED OVER ATMOS            
FROM TUE TSRA. GIVEN BEST INSTAB OVER THE SE AND ONLY WEAK MCON PLAN            
TO HAVE POP GRADIENT FROM LOW CHC NW TO 40ISH SE FOR A COUPLE HOURS             
THIS EVENING. RUC THEN SHOWS LACK OF MUCH PRECIP OTHER THAN ISOLD               
SHRA OVERNGT SO WILL CONT WITH LITTLE CHC AFTER MIDNGT. WILL THROW              
IN SOME PATCHY FOG MAINLY W PER RH AND DECENT FOG STAB VALUES OTRW              
PC WARM/HUMID WITH LOWS LOW/MID 70S. LINGERING LEE TROF APPEARS TO              
BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR AT LEAST SCTD CONVECTION THU AS WEAK MOISTURE             
ADVECTION RETURNS ESPCLY SRN/SW ZONES. THIS IN COMBO WITH EVEN                  
HIGHER PWATS...DECENT CAPE AND LIGHT S/SW FLOW SUPPORTS AT LEAST                
WDLY SCTD TSRA...SO CHCY POPS ESPCLY E ALONG LEE TROF CONVERGENCE.              
HIGHS GNRLY LOW/MID 90S WHICH MAY AGAIN PUSH INDICES CLOSE TO ADVSRY            
LEVELS WELL SE OF THE TRIAD.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                
TSRA MAY LINGER INTO THU EVENING ALTHO LOOKS LIKE DIURNAL NATURE                
WILL CUT OFF COVERAGE OVERNGT PER DRIER NAM/CANADIAN SOLNS. WILL UP             
CHCS SOME IN THE EVENING AND GO WITH LOW END CHC OVRNGT TO MATCH                
BETTER...OTRW 30-40 POP. MODELS SHARPEN 5H TROF A BIT FRI WITH THE              
GFS INDICATING ENHANCED LIFT ESPCLY ERN HALF FRI AFTN UNDER HIGH                
CAPES AND PWATS. SINCE OTHER GUIDANCE WEAKER...WILL ONLY RAISE POPS             
A NOTCH...GNRLY BELOW GFS VALUES SINCE LIKELY OVERDONE AT THIS                  
POINT. TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER BUT STILL MAY BE CLOSE TO NPW LEVELS SE            
IF PRECIP/CLOUDS END UP LESS. SHRA LINGERS INTO FRI EVENING BEFORE              
APCH OF NEXT BACKDOOR COLD FRONT EDGES DEEP RH S OF THE AREA SAT                
MORNING. IN FACT APPEARS COULD END UP IN BETWEEN THE TWO BY SAT AFTN            
WITH WEAK COMPRESSION BOOSTING TEMPS A CAT HIGHER THAN MOS PENDING              
CLOUDS. THUS PLAN TO CONFINE ANY SLGT CHC POPS TO MAINLY THE                    
SANDHILLS/COASTAL PLAINS FOR NOW. OTRW PLAN TO BOOST TEMPS AGAIN                
WITH SOME UPR 90S PSBL SE THIRD SAT AFTN.                                       
WEAK COOL FRONT WILL BASICALLY WASH OUT OVER OR JUST N OF THE REGION            
SAT NGT INTO SUNDAY WHILE MAJORITY OF DEEP RH LIKELY SHIFTS TO THE S            
UNDER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE MID ATLC. MAY STILL HAVE SOME                   
LINGERING CONVECTIVE CHCS ESPCLY SRN ZONES SAT EVENING...OTRW WILL              
TAPER POPS OFF SAT NGT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY AS DEEPER LOW              
LEVEL E/NE FLOW DEVELOPS. CENTRAL STATES HEAT DOME/RIDGE STARTS TO              
BUILD E LATER SUNDAY THRU TUE BEFORE RIDGING FLATTENS WED AHEAD OF              
NEXT APCHG S/W TROF FROM THE NW. NW FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY INTO MON ON               
THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LEAVE A FAINT WEAKNESS FOR                
PSBL MCS FEATURES TO DIVE SE TOWARD THE AREA THRU MONDAY NGT. SINCE             
IFFY AS TO SRN EXTENT...WILL TIME SLGT CHC TSRA LATE SUNDAY AND                 
AGAIN DURING MON AS CAP MAY BE WEAKER BY THEN. OTRW INCRSG HEAT FOR             
EARLY WEEK WITH SOME UPR 90S/NR 100 PSBL CENTRAL/SRN TIER MON-TUE               
WHEN 85H VALUES PUSH 22-24C UNDER WEAK W/SW FLOW. COLD FRONT SHOULD             
APPROACH LATE WED BUT LIKELY SLOWER THAN GFS GIVEN STRENGTH OF RIDGE            
AND RESIDUAL HEATING. WILL INCLUDE A CHC POP WED AFTN FOR PREFRONTAL            
RH WITH TEMPS SLGHTLY COOLER ESPCLY TRIAD ZONES.                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS FROM              
MARION NC TO STUART VA THIS AFTERNOON. SECOND AREA DEVELOPING NEAR              
SEA BREEZE FRONT. LAPS INDICATED SOME SFC CONVERGENCE AT 17Z OVER               
THE SANDHILLS. ISOLD TO SCT MVFR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION               
EXPECTED AFT 20Z. AREAS OF FOG AND HAZE FORMING AGAIN OVERNIGHT                 
GENERALLY AFT 09Z WITH WET GROUND AND LIGHT WINDS. ADDITIONAL                   
DIURNAL MVFR CONVECTION THURSDAY.                                               
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...KK/JH                                                              
LONG TERM...JH                                                                  
AVIATION...KK                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND                              
1002 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005                                                     
.UPDATE...BAND OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ORIENTED W-E ACROSS NORTHERN                 
NORTH DAKOTA EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WSR-88D KMBX SHOWING                 
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH THESE CLOUDS. THESE SHOWERS MOST LIKELY                   
ASSOCIATED WITH VERY WEAK FORCING. STRONG UPPER JET (SUBTLE JET                 
STREAKS) ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA ALONG WITH WEAK 850MB BAROCLINIC                
ZONE LOOK TO BE RESPONSIBLE. PROBABLY SOME WEAK MID-LEVEL                       
INSTABILITY NOT HANDLED WELL BY THE MODELS. WILL ADD ISOLD -SHRA                
ACROSS MOST OF N FORECAST AREA FOR THE MORNING HOURS. 12Z RUC SHOWS             
850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE WEAKENING AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THIS             
SHOULD END ANY SHOWER THREAT BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WILL MONITOR.              
TEMPERATURES AND ALL OTHER ASPECTS OF FORECAST LOOK GOOD. UPDATE                
ONLY MINOR.                                                                     
----------------------------------------------------------------                
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FROM KROX-KFSE-KDTL-KABR WILL                
SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND EAST TODAY. EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS MOVED             
INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF MN...WITH ANOTHER CLUSTER IN SE SD. JUST HOW              
FAR THE FRONT WILL SAG TODAY WILL DETERMINE THE THREAT OF CONVECTION            
IN WEST CENTRAL MN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS STALL             
THE FRONT OUT FROM AROUND KDLH-KSTC-KHON WITH EXTREME INSTABILITY               
AND HIGH DEWPOINT AIR POOLING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT. FOR               
THIS REASON...I WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT DRY FORECAST IN PLACE AND LET            
THE DAY CREW KEEP THEIR EYES ON THE FRONTAL POSITION.                           
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST                           
TODAY...BRINGING WITH IT MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS ON NORTHERLY WINDS AND            
GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES. ANOTHER NIGHT TO KEEP THE WINDOWS OPEN ON                
THURS NITE WITH LOWS ONCE AGAIN DIPPING INTO THE 50S. AS THE HIGH               
DRIFTS EAST ON THURS...SOUTHERLY WINDS USHER IN WARMER AIR AND                  
HIGHER HUMIDITIES IN RESPONSE TO YET ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDRY.              
THE FRONT WILL TAKE A SIMILAR PATH TO THE ONE LATE TUES...WITH                  
CONVECTION POSSIBLE THURS NITE ONCE THE LLJ KICKS IN. THE MAJORITY              
OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD STAY IN SD CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW AND               
ASSOCIATED STRONGER LIFT. THE SAME OLD SCENARIO PLAYS OUT BY LATE               
SAT ONCE THE NEXT BRIEF HIGH DEPARTS.                                           
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JCA/TG                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   nd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO                                         
1052 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2005                                                     
.SHORT TERM UPDATE (TONIGHT)...                                                 
ONLY UPDATE MADE TO FORECAST WAS TO REWORD CLOUD COVER.  OTHERWISE              
ALL OTHER ELEMENTS ON TRACK.  FIRST COMPLEX OF TS THAT TRAVELED                 
ACROSS MI AND NORTHERN IN DIED AT THE CWA BORDER.  NEW CONVECTION               
HAS DEVELOPED AGAIN OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MI AND NORTHERN IN.  MUCH OF            
THE CONVECTION IN ILL IS POSITIONED ALONG A WARM FRONT...WITH A COLD            
FRONT STILL OFF TO THE WEST ACROSS WESTERN WI TO NW IA.  STILL HAVE             
UPPER SHORTWAVE TO PASS THROUGH SUPPORTING THE ONGOING CONVECTION               
AND SHORT TERM MODELS STILL PAINTING QPF OVERNIGHT.  BEST CHCS STILL            
ARE TO THE WEST THOUGH WITH LIKELY POPS...AND JUST A CHC EAST                   
TOWARDS MORNING.  DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN ON THE RISE...WITH WESTERN OH             
UP AROUND 70 ONCE AGAIN.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION(00Z-00Z)...                                                           
FIRST MCS MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA IS DYING OUT RAPIDLY AS IT              
ENCOUNTERS MORE STABLE AIR MASS TO THE EAST. IF IT REACHES CLE...IT             
SHOULD BE ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS. WL NEED TO INCLUDE A SHORT PD OF TSRA             
AT TOL/FDY EARLY TO ACCT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE...NAM                    
SUGGESTS ANOTHER COMPLEX WL DEVELOP OVER IL/NRN IN AND MOVE TOWARD              
THE WRN AREA AFTER 06Z AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WMFNT JUST S OF THE               
AREA. WITH THE NAM SHOWING AN INCREASING LLJ AND RUC MLCAPE VALUES              
RISING OVERNIGHT THINK THIS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. WL PUT A TEMPO               
-TSRA GRP BTWN 07-11Z AT TOL AND FDY. OTHERWISE GENERALLY MVFR FOR              
ALL SITES.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY)...                                          
ATTM THE LARGE AREA OF LTNG AND TSTMS SHOULD SLIDE SE OF AREA WHERE             
CAPES HIGHEST AND AMS MOST UNSTABLE. HOWEVER ANOTHER S/WV AND CDFNT             
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA TNGT AND THURSDAY AM. ATTM BASED ON TIMG            
OF FROPA WITH THE MODELS THE BEST CHANCES OF PCPN WILL BE TONIGHT.              
THE BOUNDARY MAY GET TOO FAR SOUTH ON THURSDAY FOR MUCH ACTIVITY.               
HOWEVER...SINCE MODELS KEEP SOME QPF WILL CONT 30 POP. SOME PCPN                
COULD BE AROUND THU NIGHT AS BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE BACK NORTH.                 
THREAT IS TOUGH FRI AND FRI NGT AS ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY TRIES TO               
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH. FRI COULD BE WARM AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.              
OTHERWISE GUID OK.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                
TIMING OF PCPN VERY TOUGH. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH A FRONT FOR              
TUE NIGHT. OTHER THAN THAT WITH THE AMS MOIST AND UNSTABLE THERE                
WILL BE A THREAT OF PCPN. GUID OK. WITH PLENTY OF WARM TEMPS AT 850             
MB WE HAVE TO WATCH HIGHS.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.OH...NONE.                                                                     
.PA...NONE.                                                                     
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM UPDATE...OUDEMAN                                                     
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA                                                           
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA                                                            
AVIATION...MRD                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO                                         
735 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2005                                                      
.AVIATION(00Z-00Z)...                                                           
FIRST MCS MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA IS DYING OUT RAPIDLY AS IT              
ENCOUNTERS MORE STABLE AIR MASS TO THE EAST. IF IT REACHES CLE...IT             
SHOULD BE ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS. WL NEED TO INCLUDE A SHORT PD OF TSRA             
AT TOL/FDY EARLY TO ACCT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE...NAM                    
SUGGESTS ANOTHER COMPLEX WL DEVELOP OVER IL/NRN IN AND MOVE TOWARD              
THE WRN AREA AFTER 06Z AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WMFNT JUST S OF THE               
AREA. WITH THE NAM SHOWING AN INCREASING LLJ AND RUC MLCAPE VALUES              
RISING OVERNIGHT THINK THIS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. WL PUT A TEMPO               
-TSRA GRP BTWN 07-11Z AT TOL AND FDY. OTHERWISE GENERALLY MVFR FOR              
ALL SITES.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY)...                                          
ATTM THE LARGE AREA OF LTNG AND TSTMS SHOULD SLIDE SE OF AREA WHERE             
CAPES HIGHEST AND AMS MOST UNSTABLE. HOWEVER ANOTHER S/WV AND CDFNT             
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA TNGT AND THURSDAY AM. ATTM BASED ON TIMG            
OF FROPA WITH THE MODELS THE BEST CHANCES OF PCPN WILL BE TONIGHT.              
THE BOUNDARY MAY GET TOO FAR SOUTH ON THURSDAY FOR MUCH ACTIVITY.               
HOWEVER...SINCE MODELS KEEP SOME QPF WILL CONT 30 POP. SOME PCPN                
COULD BE AROUND THU NIGHT AS BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE BACK NORTH.                 
THREAT IS TOUGH FRI AND FRI NGT AS ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY TRIES TO               
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH. FRI COULD BE WARM AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.              
OTHERWISE GUID OK.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                
TIMING OF PCPN VERY TOUGH. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH A FRONT FOR              
TUE NIGHT. OTHER THAN THAT WITH THE AMS MOIST AND UNSTABLE THERE                
WILL BE A THREAT OF PCPN. GUID OK. WITH PLENTY OF WARM TEMPS AT 850             
MB WE HAVE TO WATCH HIGHS.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.OH...NONE.                                                                     
.PA...NONE.                                                                     
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA                                                           
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA                                                            
AVIATION...MRD                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
934 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS S TIEROF USA WITH WEAK TROUGH FROM                   
GREAT LAKES TO CENTAL MS VALLEY. CONVECTION DISSIPATING AS                      
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES. WILL LOWER POPS TO SLIGHT CHACNE SE AND                  
NONE REST OF AREA. DEW POINTS REMAIN RATHER ELEVATED...AND HAVE                 
RAISED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES NC MTS AND N NC FOOTHILLS FOR THIS                  
REASON. WINDS QUITE LIGHT...AND HAVE ADJUSTED 21Z RUC GUIDANCE IN               
THIS DIRECTIONS. WILL KEEP MENTION OF PATCHY FOG...WITH DENSE FOG               
MENTIONED IN NC MT VALLEYS. ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO MATCH SATELLITE               
IMAGERY EARLY...THEN TRENDED TOWARD PREVIOUS 12Z FORECAST.                      
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 257 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...                                    
RIDGETOPS PROVIDING LOCATION FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS                     
AFTERNOON. CELLS MOVING VERY SLOWLY WITH LIGHT STEERING FLOW IN THE             
MID LEVELS. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE THIS                    
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM OR                 
TWO...BUT SVR THREAT LOWER THAN FLOODING CHC. HAVE GONE WITH EARLY              
LIKELY POP NC FOOTHILLS/NC MTNS SOUTH AND WEST OF FRENCH BROAD...AND            
OVER SC/GA MTNS. SCT POP ELSEWHERE. WILL SEE SOME FOG                           
OVERNIGHT...BUT BEST CHC FOR DENSE FOG WILL BE MTN VALLEYS.                     
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHEAST TODAY WILL YIELD TO                  
SLIGHT LOWERING OF UPPER HEIGHTS THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A                      
DIFFLUENT NORTHWEST...BUT STILL PRETTY WEAK FLOW THROUGHOUT                     
THE COLUMN. ALL IN ALL...DOUBT THERE WILL BE MUCH CHANGE TO OUR                 
PERSISTENT SENSIBLE WEATHER...A CONTINUED THREAT OF SCATTERED                   
DIURNAL DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH ANOTHER DAY OF                   
FTHL/PIEDMONT MAXES IN THE LOWER 90S AND AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX                   
VALUES NEAR 100.                                                                
IT CONTINUES TO REMAIN UNCERTAIN WITH RESPECT TO MCS EVOLUTION                  
THURSDAY NIGHT AND/OR FRIDAY BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN WOULD STILL                
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT OR               
FRIDAY MORNING...WHETHER IT MAKES IT THIS FAR SOUTHEAST IS STILL                
DEBATABLE. NOT THAT IT IS CORRECT...BUT THE 12 UTC GFS IS NOW                   
SHOWING STRONG SIGNALS OF LINEAR DEEP CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE                
MTNS FRIDAY MORNING AND QUICKLY SWEEPING ACRS THE CWFA BY THE                   
AFTERNOON. THERE IS EVEN SOME SUPPORT ALBEIT WEAKER ON THE 12 UTC               
NAM WITH S/WV PASSAGE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...SO WILL CONTINUE TO               
ADVERTISE POPS OUTSIDE OF TYPICAL DIURNAL FOR THIS PERIOD. AS IN                
EARLIER RUNS...THE LATEST GFS CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER/DEEPER WITH                
MAIN S/WV PASSAGE...WHICH DOES NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.              
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...PLAN ON LEAVING CHC POPS AS IS UNTIL 06Z                  
SATURDAY.                                                                       
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                       
CWFA LOOKS TO COME UNDER S/WV RIDGING SATURDAY WITH DEEPER RH                   
DISPLACED OFF TO OUR SOUTH. IT WILL CONTINUE TO HEAT UP WITH                    
FTHL/PIEDMONT MAXES IN THE MID 90S. WITH THE ABSENCE OF THE                     
BETTER RH AND LARGER SCALE SUPPORT...PLAN ON CONTINUING DIURNAL                 
CHC POPS FOR JUST THE MTNS. LARGE UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD EVEN                   
FURTHER EAST INTO THE CWFA SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR A FEW MORE HOT                 
DAYS. AGAIN...ANY DIURNAL DEEP CONVECTIVE CHANCE WOULD LOOK TO BE               
ISOLATED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN IF NOT COMPLETELY SUPPRESSED. WE WILL            
HAVE TO MONITOR DEWPOINT TRENDS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY FOR THE                 
POTENTIAL FOR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING REACHED. PLAN ON SLIGHT              
CHANCE OR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR DAYS 6 AND 7 WITH TEMPS HEADING BACK              
TOWARD CLIMO AS UPPER RIDGING BREAKS DOWN.                                      
AVIATION...                                                                     
TAFS START OFF WITH VCTS AT ALL LOCATIONS XCPT KCLT WHERE TSRA STILL            
QUITE A DISTANCE AWAY. DO HAVE CB MENTION THERE. WILL AMD IF/WHEN               
CELLS APPROACH AIRFIELDS. GUIDANCE NOT CONSISTENT WITH MVFR FOG                 
CHANCE OVERNIGHT...XCPT AT KAVL WHERE IFR FOG/CIGS LOOK LIKELY. DID             
INCLUDE MVFR FOG AT KHKY/KAND WHERE IT IS FAVORED ACCORDING TO                  
CLIMO. RESTRICTIONS END QUICKLY...ABOUT 13Z...THU MORNING. VFR FOR              
THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JAT                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1050 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2005                                                     
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
UNSTABLE ATMOS EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z RAOBS AND RUC FCST            
SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW CAP ACROSS THE NRN SECTIONS THAT WAS FCST BY              
THE 00Z NAM. INSTABILITY WILL BE LOWER THERE SO...WILL KEEP AFT POP             
AS IS WITH LIKELY FRENCH BROAD WEST AND CHC ELSEWHERE. MDLS STILL               
INDICATING NLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW INTO UPSTATE AND NE GA SO STILL                   
EXPECTING SIMILAR COVERAGE THERE AS YESTERDAY. WITH SLOW MOVEMENT OF            
STORMS...ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING LIKELY. OBSERVED THICKNESS SCHEME              
HAS BEEN OVERDOING MAX TEMPS...SO GOING FCST LOOKS ON TRACK.                    
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 312 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                            
TODAY WILL BE ALMOST A CARBON COPY OF THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...                
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE A FEW SIGNS THAT CONVECTION MAY BE NOT QUITE AS              
WIDESPREAD AS IT WAS YESTERDAY. ONE FACTOR IS THE DEEP LAYER FLOW IS            
EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER TODAY...SO STORMS THAT DEVELOP              
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO COVER MUCH GROUND. THIS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT THERE            
WILL BE LESS POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO BECOME SOMEWHAT LOOSELY                
ORGANIZED ON OUTFLOWS. THE SECOND FACTOR IS THE MID-LEVEL STABLE                
LAYER INDICATED ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM NORTHERN NC (BOONE/                    
GREENSBORO/HICKORY.) IN FACT...THE KTNB AND KGSO SOUNDINGS ARE                  
ALMOST CAPPED. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 30-40 RANGE            
NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE...WILL BUMP POPS TO LIKELY                
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE NC MNTNS. WITH SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE                 
STORMS...FLASH FLOODING COULD BECOME A PROBLEM LATER TODAY. PLAN TO             
ISSUE AN SPS TO ADDRESS THIS. THE UPSTATE AND NE GEORGIA HAVE BEEN              
IN A RELATIVE MINIMUM OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL               
DAYS. HOWEVER...THESE LOCATIONS WERE LITERALLY SURROUNDED BY                    
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION YESTERDAY...AND AM NOT SURE HOW MUCH LONGER               
THIS TREND WILL PERSIST. WILL CARRY 40 POPS ACROSS THIS AREA TODAY.             
NOT A GREAT DEAL OF CHANGE EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW...WILL MAINTAIN                
CHANCE POPS EVERYWHERE. BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...THE RIDGE BECOMES              
SUPPRESSED FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH THAT NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW                
BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW AN MCS TO                 
AFFECT THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. THE GFS AND NAM EACH             
FEATURE A MID LEVEL SW TROUGH TRAVERSING THE MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS             
DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS SLOWER...STRONGER...AND                 
FURTHER SOUTH WITH ITS SW...ALL OF WHICH MAY BE THE RESULT OF GRID-             
SCALE FEEDBACK. APPARENTLY AS A RESULT OF THESE DIFFERENCES...THE               
MODELS ALSO DIFFER WILDLY IN THE EVOLUTION OF A WEAK FRONTAL                    
BOUNDARY...WITH THE GFS PLOWING IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY             
NIGHT...WHILE THE NAM KEEPS THE FRONT STALLED IN THE OHIO VALLEY.               
EITHER WAY...IT APPEARS THE HEALTHY POPS ADVERTISED FOR FRIDAY ARE              
WARRANTED.                                                                      
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                     
THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE PERSISTENT IN PUSHING THE DEEP LAYER                    
MOISTURE TO THE COAST FOR THE WEEKEND...SO THE CURRENT TREND OF                 
LOWER WEEKEND POPS APPEARS ON TRACK. NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED                 
PERIODS ATTM.                                                                   
AVIATION...                                                                     
ONCE AGAIN...THE ONLY TAF SITE THAT GOES OUT WITH THE 0600 UTC                  
PACKAGE TO SEE RAIN YDAY WAS KAVL. EXPECT LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS                   
THROUGH SUNRISE THERE. OTHERWISE THE QUESTION IS WILL STRATUS DECK              
FORM EAST OF THE MTNS AGAIN THIS MORNING? CONSIDERING THAT THERE IS             
CONSIDERABLY MORE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AROUND THIS MORNING THAN LAST...            
AND THAT FLOW IS VERY LIGHT OUT OF THE NW IN THE LLVLS...DON/T SEE              
AS MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING. THEREFORE WILL NOT                 
BRING IN ANY LOW DECKS...BUT WL TAKE KAND/S VSBY DOWN TO 2 SM FOR A             
FEW HRS. WL CARRY THE USUAL CB GROUPS IN ALL TAFS FOR THE AFTN AND              
EVENING HOURS.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...RWH                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
911 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005                                                      
.UPDATE...HAVE ISSUED NEW FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THIS EVENING TO                  
REMOVE TSRA CHANCES FROM NORTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA. STABILITY IS           
BUILDING IN WITH SPC GRAPHICS INDICATING 100+ J/KG CIN AND                      
SUBSIDENCE PER RUC VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS. SOME WEAK MOISTURE                   
CONVERGENCE IS STILL OCCURRING ACROSS SWRN WI WITH NO CIN. NOT                  
IMPRESSED ON CHANCES BUT ALSO DIDNT WANT TO PULL THE POP. HAVE BEEN             
WATCHING FOR LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES ACROSS NEB INTO SLATER IN IA.              
WITH SLATER POINTING SWRLY AND ERN NEB INCREASING...SIMPLY WANT TO              
MONITOR THE ACTIVITY OVER IOWA THIS EVENING. THINKING IS ANY                    
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT THIS IS WHY THE              
CHANCES OF TSRA WERE LEFT ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SWRN WI                     
OVERNIGHT.                                                                      
OTHER INTERESTING SYSTEM IS THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ON THE SD/NEB                
BORDER. FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS FROM THE 00Z RUC WOULD              
CARRY THIS COMPLEX EASTWARD. NCAR 5KM WRF MODEL TRACKS THE SYSTEM               
THROUGH IOWA OVERNIGHT WITH NERN IOWA ON THE NORTHERN EDGE BY                   
MORNING. I LIKE THE TRACK ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WARM                   
SECTOR INFLOW NORTH OF THE I-80 FRONTAL BOUNDARY/ WIND SHIFT. THIS              
SHOULD BE ANOTHER LONGER LIVED SYSTEM LIKE LAST NIGHTS...ARRIVING               
AROUND SUNRISE IN THE FORECAST AREA. INTERESTING THAT THE NCEP                  
MODELS...NAM/GFS AT 18Z BOTH DEVELOP AN MCS NEAR KABR FURTHER                   
NORTH. 00Z RUC SEEMS TO HAVE LATCHED ONTO THE CURRENT ACTIVITY WITH             
A SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF SD INTO SC MN BY 12Z. JUST UPSTREAM.                     
WOULD APPEAR ANOTHER MEASURABLE EVENT VERY POSSIBLE EARLY THURSDAY.             
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BAUMGARDT                                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
300 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2005                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...WATER VAPOR (WV) IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LVL RIDGING                    
DOMINATES THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS...WHILE A SERIES OF SHORT              
WAVE TROUGHS ARE MOVING AROUND THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE                 
ACROSS THE MIDWEST REGION. RUC40 1000-500MB STREAMLINES INDICATE THAT           
THE MEAN LAYER BERMUDA RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS GA...AND SUCH A                
POSITION CONTINUES SSE FLOW OVER THE JAX CWA TONIGHT. WE REMAIN                 
UNSEASONABLY DRY AS THE KJAX 00Z RAOB REPORTED A PWAT OF ONLY 1.6               
INCHES. WV SHOWS A SWATH OF DRY AIR MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON THE SE            
SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...BUT NOTE THAT AS TROUGHING ACROSS THE                 
MIDWEST IS BREAKING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND ALLOWING MORE           
MOISTURE TO CREEP SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE JAX CWA.                                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THRU SAT...THE UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE                
TO BREAK DOWN TODAY ACROSS THE SE REGION AS TROUGHING ACROSS THE                
MIDWEST ADVANCES SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE MEAN LAYER BERMUDA              
RIDGE AXIS TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD AS WELL...AND POSITION OVER THE                   
FORECAST AREA TODAY PROVIDING LIGHT STEERING FLOW AND ALLOW FOR                 
ANOTHER INLAND SEABREEZE MERGER. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD SLIGHTLY HIGHER            
POPS ACROSS OUR GA ZONES THIS AFTN AS SUBSIDENCE WILL BE WEAKENING              
OVER THESE ZONES AND MOISTURE INCREASING. FRI THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS               
SHUNTS FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH AS A SFC BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST           
REGION. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING SSW TO THE AREA AS WELL AS MORE              
MOISTURE WITH PWATS NEARING 2 INCHES...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH                   
INCREASING POPS FRI ACROSS THE BOARD WITH 40% INLAND TO 30% NEAR THE            
COAST. SAT THE SFC FRONT WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF OUR GA ZONES WHICH            
WILL KEEP THE JAX CWA IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS               
WITH CONVECTION ENHANCED IN THE AFTN BY SEABREEZE AND BOUNDARY                  
COLLISIONS. STEERING FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WLY SO AFTN CONVECTION               
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL APPROACH THE EAST COAST DURING THE EVENING             
HOURS. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING...MAINLY WHERE                  
RAINFALL OCCURRED THE PREVIOUS DAY.                                             
TEMPS WILL REMAIN AOA CLIMO VALUES WITH MAXES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S             
AND MINS IN THE MID 70S. THESE VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD                    
UNCOMFORTABLE HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER 100S.                                   
.LONG TERM...SUN THRU WED...THE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE OVER THE                  
REGION AS UPPER LVL HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS               
AND ALLOWS THE LOW LVL BERMUDA RIDGE TO BUILD BACK OVER CENTRAL FL.             
THE CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL TAPER FROM 40-50% THIS WEEKEND...TO NEAR              
CLIMO VALUES OF 35-40% BY MID-WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE AOA CLIMO VALUES              
FROM THE LOW-MID 90S TO LOW-MID 70S.                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH              
SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS...EXCEPT FOR THE OCCASIONAL                    
NOCTURNAL SURGE NEAR 15 KNOTS ACRS THE GA WTRS. OTHERWISE THE ONLY              
OTHER NOTEWORTHY ITEM WILL BE POSSIBLE INCREASE IN EASTERLY SWELLS              
FROM A DEVELOPING WAVE TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...STILL MUCH                  
UNCERTAINITY IN THIS SYSTEM ON TRACK AND POSSIBLE INTENSITY.                    
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
AMG  94  74  94  75 /  40  30  40  40                                           
SSI  90  78  90  79 /  20  10  30  40                                           
JAX  93  75  92  76 /  20  10  40  40                                           
SGJ  90  78  90  78 /  20  10  30  30                                           
GNV  95  74  93  75 /  40  20  40  40                                           
OCF  94  74  93  75 /  30  20  40  40                                           
&&                                                                              
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC...ENYEDI                                                                 
MARINE/FIRE WX...HESS                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
253 AM EST THU JUL 21 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
MORE QN/S THEN ANSWERS THIS AM. SADLY...BULK OF CWA GETTING SPLIT BY            
CONVN W/VRY IMPRESSIVE CLUSTER OVR NE IL ATTM AND RIGHT WHERE GFS               
INDICATED LAST NIGHT. OF NOTE IS DEEP OFB ANCHORED UPSTREAM W/LLJ               
ALIGNMENT INTO IT OVR IL WHICH SUGGESTS THIS CLUSTER WILL CONT FOR              
SOME TIME THIS AM AS IT DIVES SEWD INTO WRN INDIANA. OF GREATER                 
INTEREST IS MATURE SEVERE MCS ACRS NE NEB W/APPARENT WAKE LOW BEHIND            
IT. 00Z GUIDANCE SEEMS TO CAPTURE THE DVLPMNT OF THIS FTR TO SOME               
DEGREE BUT DETAIL RESOLUTION EXPECTANTLY POOR AND NOD TWD TIMING                
ARRIVAL OF UPSTREAM MCV GIVEN TWD 06Z RUC/12KM NAM. ATTM DOUBT OFB              
WILL MOVE IF AT ALL AND LIKELY FOCUS SFC BASED DVLPMNT THIS AFTN                
WELL W ACRS IL. HWVR THAT SAID...OUTFLW BUBBLE IN PLACE INADV OF                
EJECTING NEB RIDGE RIDER VRY WELL COULD FIRE ELEVATED CONVN OVRTOP              
CWA LT THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT AS MCV ENHANCED LLJ DVLPS W/STG                    
ELEVATED THETA-E FLUX INTO ESP NRN INDIANA OVERNIGHT AND WHICH FITS             
WITHIN GOING GFS/NAM/RUC SOLUTIONS ALTHOUGH GFS LOOKS TOO FAR N                 
OVERNIGHT. 06Z 12KM NAM LOOKS EXCEEDINGLY WELL AND WILL FOLLOW                  
CLOSELY FOR LT THIS AFTN/OVERNIGHT.                                             
OTHERWISE...LLJ SEGMENT ACRS IL LOOKS TO WKN LTR THIS AM AND SHLD               
RESULT IN RAPID DECAY OF ONGOING MCS AND CLOUD DEBRIS BY MID/LATE AM.           
THUS PROGGED INSOLATION WITHIN A BIT WARMER THERMAL RIDGE THEN YDA              
SHLD EQUATE TO LOW 90S FOR MOST.                                                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
NOT MUCH GOING ON IN THE FRIDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THE BIGGEST            
THING IS A FRONT AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW THE TIMING            
IS TO HAVE THE COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO               
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND                   
SATURDAY. SUNDAY MODELS ARE DIFFERING SOMEWHAT. GFS80 HAS A LOW                 
MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH QUEBEC SUNDAY WITH A TROUGH DOWN INTO                   
MICHIGAN AND HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. DGEX HAS SUNDAY            
WET AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND THEN IT MOVES THAT LOW                   
NORTHEAST WHILE BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY                   
NIGHT. THEN HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY. ECMWF HAS HIGH PRESSURE IN                
PLACE FOR SUNDAY. THE CANADIAN MODEL'S STORY FOR SUNDAY IS A LOW IN             
WISCONSIN WITH A WARM FRONT TO THE EAST OF US AND KEEPING SUNDAY                
DRY. THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY HAS BEEN DRY AND WITH JUST THE DGEX                
SHOWING RAIN WITH A DIFFERING SCENARIO THAN OTHER MODELS, HAVE KEPT             
SUNDAY DRY. THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THAT                 
FRONT PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN JUST EXPECTING                 
TEMPERATURES TO REACH TO UP AROUND 80 FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY.                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
DIFFICULT TAF CYCLE THIS AM W/CONVN SPLITTING CWA ATTM. MBE ELEMENT             
ANCHORED OVR NE IL RIGHT WHERE GFS SAID IT WOULD LAST NIGHT AND SHLD            
KEEP FOCUS FOR ADDNL DVLPMNT W OF TAF SITES REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.             
PRIMARY EARLY PROBLEM WILL BE PENCHANT FOR MVFR VSBY REDUCTION TWD              
DAYBREAK AS PRIOR SHIFT HAD ELUDED TO AND LEFT INTACT FOR THIS CYCLE            
ALTHOUGH MID/HIGH CLD SHIELD WILL LIKELY NOT ERODE SUFFICIENTLY TO              
PROMOTE LWR END.                                                                
OTHERWISE SITUATION LT THIS AFTN AND EVENING VEXING W/CONFLICTING               
MODEL SIGNALS AND SVR MCS OVR NE. WILL PROB30 SBN FOR NOW                       
W/CONFIDENCE QUITE LOW.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HOLSTEN                                                   
LONG TERM...LOTHAMER                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
1100 AM MDT WED JUL 20 2005                                                     
.UPDATE...HAVE ISSUED AN UPDATE FOR WINDS AND TEMPERATURES AS WELL              
AS DEWPOINTS AND REMOVAL OF WX/POPS TODAY.                                      
AT 17Z TEMPERATURE AT GOODLAND IS 103!! THE PAST 5 DAYS                         
PERFORMANCE OF THE FWC/MET/MAV AND 850 TEMPERATURES WOULD SUGGEST               
HIGHS AT GOODLAND AROUND 108.                                                   
LATEST RUC HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND YIELDS                 
HIGHS AROUND 113 FOR THE AREA. GIVEN CURRENT START HAVE FOLLOWED                
THAT GENERAL IDEA. RECORDS IN JEOPARDY INCLUDE GOODLAND                         
(109)...BURLINGTON (104)...MCCOOK (114)...HILL CITY (107)...YUMA                
(103)...TRIBUNE (106) AND COLBY (108).                                          
ALL-TIME JULY HIGHS IN JEOPARDY INCLUDE GOODLAND                                
(111)...BURLINGTON (109)... AND TRIBUNE (108).                                  
MIN TEMPERATURES WERE ABOVE 75 DEGREES FOR 5 COUNTIES AND WITH                  
HIGHS GREATER THAN 105 I HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THOSE                  
COUNTIES LISTED BELOW TODAY.                                                    
AS FAR AS CONVECTIVE CHANCES...NOT VERY EXCITING. WE DO HAVE SOME               
INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...LOCAL               
RESEARCH FROM A FEW YEARS AGO INDICATED THAT AT LEAST NO SEVERE                 
STORMS WERE RECORDED WITH 700 TEMPERATURES >17C. WITH THAT IN                   
MIND...KEPT SILENT POPS WHERE THE 12ZETA PAINTED SOME QPF.                      
THATS ABOUT IT...ENJOY THE HEAT. MAY NEED TO TWEAK HIGHS UP IF                  
THEY GET MUCH MORE ABOVE 110.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY FOR                
      KSZ003...KSZ004...KSZ015...KSZ016.                                        
.NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY FOR                
      NEZ081.                                                                   
.CO...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DDT                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
400 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SFC FRONT IS INTO E UPR MI ATTM WITH ONLY A FEW SCT MID CLOUDS ALONG            
IT. OTHER THAN A VERY ISOLD STRONG CELL IN NEARSHORE WATERS OFF BIG             
BAY LATE YDY AFTN AND ANOTHER CELL THAT POPPED UP COUPLE HOURS AGO N            
OF SSM...THERE WAS NO CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. PCPN OVR SCNTRL UPR           
MI LATE YDY MORNING INTO THE AFTN WAS LEFTOVERS FM MCS THAT CAME E              
OUT OF CNTRL MN YDY MORNING. A QUARTER OF AN INCH AROUND MENOMINEE              
COUNTY...OTHERWISE NO PCPN OVR CWA. LACKING DEEP MOISTURE ALONG THE             
FRONT AND STABILIZATION FM THE MORNING MCS TO THE SOUTH SEEMED TO BE            
MAIN LIMITING FACTORS FOR PCPN.                                                 
MOVING ON...LOOKING FOR THAT NEXT CHANCE OF MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.               
PRIMARY SHORTWAVE THAT PRODUCED THE CONVECTION IS NOW INTO CNTRL                
LAKES WITH SHARP DRYING PROHIBITING ANY PCPN ALONG SFC FRONT AS IT              
PASSES THROUGH. CLUSTER OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOME ECHOES ARE                 
PROGRESSING W TO E ACROSS WI...BUT THESE SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE               
AREA. NEXT SHORTWAVE OF CONCERN IS OVR CNTRL ALBERTA WHICH WILL                 
SHIFT ACROSS UPR LAKES LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HOT RIDGE REMAINS              
OVR W CONUS WITH H5 CENTER OVR GRAND JUNCTION CO PER 00Z ROABS.                 
LARGE AREA OF HIGH TEMPS OVR 100 DEGREES YDY OVR SW CONUS INTO CNTRL            
PLAINS.                                                                         
HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY RISE TODAY WITH HIGH PRES OVR CNTRL CANADA AND N               
PLAINS SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION. NNW FLOW PREVAILS AT SFC-H85 THIS             
AFTN WHICH SHOULD KEEP N TIER OF CWA MUCH COOLER THAN YDY WITH FLOW             
OFF LK SUPERIOR. H85 TEMPS AROUND +10C OVR N LK SUPERIOR TO +14C OVR            
WI BORDER SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 70 BY THE SHORE...TO LOW 80S ALONG               
WISCONSIN AND NEAR LK MI AS N WINDS ARE OFFSHORE. ALBERTA SHORTWAVE             
SHOULD BE VCNTY OF LK WINNEPEG BY THIS EVENING THEN REACH N LK                  
SUPERIOR BY DAYBREAK FRI. LAST NIGHT IT APPEARED THAT THIS SHORTWAVE            
WOULD COMBINE WITH INCREASING SWRLY LLJ AND MOISTURE ADVECTION TO               
SPUR ON A ROUND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION. HOWEVER...BEGINNING WITH 18Z            
RUN OF GFS YDY...MODELS HAVE SHARPLY TRENDED AWAY FM THAT                       
SOLN...WITH PRIMARY LLJ NOW PROGGED WELL TO THE WEST IN THE                     
DAKOTAS...CLOSER TO THE VERY WARM DAYTIME TEMPS. SINCE LLJ LOCATION             
CAN BE TIED TO AMOUNT OF DAYTIME HEATING...IT MAKES SENSE THAT                  
WITHOUT A VERY STRONG SHORTWAVE BEST LLJ WOULD BE WELL TO THE WEST.             
MODEL QPF IS GENERALLY NIL FOR THE 06Z FRI-18Z FRI PERIOD...WHEREAS             
BEFORE AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO 1.00 WERE COMMON ACROSS AT LEAST PARTS OF              
UPR MI. FOR NOW...WILL TREND TOWARD NO PCPN...KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE             
POPS. IF TRENDS CONTINUE...LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL REMAIN DRY.            
PRESSURES WILL RISE AGAIN BY FRIDAY AFTN AND WINDS SHOULD BECOME                
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND ONSHORE. H85 TEMPS AROUND +12C ON AVERAGE                
SUPPORT TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S...WITH A FEW 80S NEAR THE WI BORDER.            
MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS OFF GFS/NAM WITH TEMPS IN LWR 80S AND               
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S YIELD CAPES BTWN 500-1000J/KG WITH NO CIN.             
NAM INDICATES PCPN COULD OCCUR OVR INTERIOR WITH LL CONVERGENCE IN              
AFTN DUE TO LK BREEZES...BUT WITH NEUTRAL TO ONLY WEAK POSITIVE                 
DYNAMICS FOR LIFT AND BEST MOISTURE RETURN FARTHER WEST PER H85                 
THETA-E ADVECTION...WILL SIDE WITH DRY CANADIAN/GFS/RUC 13 SOLN                 
ATTM.                                                                           
MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE SAT/SAT NIGHT FCST BASED ON LATEST TRENDS              
OFF 00Z MODELS. NAM/GFS BOTH INDICATE GOOD SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT             
DEVELOPS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AM ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE              
ADVECTION. NOSE OF H85 JET IS MAINLY OVR MN LATE FRI NIGHT SO KEPT              
POPS OUT FOR FRI NIGHT AS MOST CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF UPR             
MI. AS H85 JET VEERS WSW SAT MORNING SOME SHRA/TS COULD PUSH INTO W             
UPR MI AS ELEVATED CAPES ARE BTWN 500-1000J/KG AND H85-H7 LAPSE                 
RATES RISE ABOVE 6.5C/KM. GFS/CANADIAN NOT AS BULLISH IN DRIVING PCPN           
E ON SAT SO ONLY ADDED POPS FOR W HALF OF CWA ATTM. INCREASED TEMPS             
AS S FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL LIMIT BULK OF LAKE                
COOLING TO ALONG LK MI.                                                         
BY SAT NIGHT...VERY GOOD AGREEMENT EMERGING WITH RESPECT TO PCPN                
CHANCES ALONG WARM FRONT THAT SHIFTS ACROSS CWA AS H85 TROUGH ALONG             
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION AFFECTS THE UPR LAKES.                       
CONSIDERING BACK TO A FEW DAYS AGO THIS HAS BEEN PERIOD FAVORED FOR             
PCPN...CONFIDENCE IS GROWING ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS TO HIGH CHANCE.            
DRY SHORT TERM DROUGHT PATTERN WE HAVE SEEN ACROSS CNTRL/ERN ZONES              
LAST FEW WEEKS SHOULD PROHIBIT ANY MENTION OF LIKELY POPS IN                    
ITSELF...BUT THIS MAY BE AN EVENT WHERE AT LEAST A PERIOD OF                    
RAINFALL SEEMS LIKELY...EVEN IF IT MAY NOT LAST MORE THAN A FEW                 
HOURS WITH WARM FRONT PASSAGE. UKMET/GFS HINT AT WAVE RIDING NE                 
ALONG BOUNDARY WHICH WOULD DEFINETELY BOOST PCPN CHANCES SAT NIGHT              
FOR CNTRL/ERN ZONES. ONCE FRONT AND PCPN EXITS E CWA LATER SUN...A              
NW FLOW DEVELOPS BY AFTN AND WITH H85 TEMPS NEARING +20C...A VERY               
WARM AFTN MAY BE IN STORE. INCREASED TEMPS INTO THE UPR 80S FOR NOW.            
A FEW LWR 90S ARE FEASIBLE IF PCPN CLOUDS ARE OUT OF HERE FAIRLY                
QUICK ON SUN MORNING AS GFS INDICATES.                                          
NO CHANGES WERE MADE BEYOND SUN. PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT IS TRYING TO             
CHANGE TO ONE WITH MUCH LOWER HEIGHTS ALONG N TIER...INCLUDING UPR              
LAKES. STILL SOME TIMING/PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES TO SORT OUT WITH                 
ADVANCING LOW PRES FM PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK SO DID NOT ADD ANY POPS            
TO TUE FCST ATTM DESPITE LATEST PROGS FM ECMWF/UKMET WHICH SUGGEST              
OTHERWISE.                                                                      
COORD WITH APX AND GRB...THANKS.                                                
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JLA                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                            
130 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISOLATED SHRA HAVE RECENTLY DVLPD OVR NWRN MO WHERE LATEST RUC ANLYS            
SHOWING STG 850 MB MOISTURE CNVG.  MORE ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD                
CONVECTION OVR NERN IL ATTM.  OUTFLOW BNDRY FM THIS MCS MAY MOV SWWD            
INTO THE E-NERN PTN OF THE CWA LTR THIS MRNG AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR            
CONVECTION THIS AFTN.  VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVR ERN SD WL MOV SEWD                
THRU IA INTO NWRN IL BY 00Z FRI HELPING TO DESTABILIZE THE                      
ATMOSPHERE OVR THE NERN PTN OF THE CWA THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVNG.                
SFC CDFNT WILL ALSO BE SAGGING SWD INTO NRN MO BY 00Z FRI.                      
ETA...NAM MDL SHOWING PLENTY OF INSTABILITY OVR THE CWA THIS AFTN               
WITH HIGHEST K INDICES OF 43 TO 47 OVR THE NRN AND ERN PTN OF THE               
CWA ARND 00Z FRI.  LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE RELATIVELY STG CAP OVR               
THE WRN PTN OF THE CWA WITH MDLS DEPICTING 700 MB TEMPS OF 12-14                
DGRS C THIS AFTN.  PLAN TO INCLUDE LOW POPS MAINLY THIS AFTN AND                
EVNG OVR THE NRN AND ERN PTN OF THE CWA WITH A DRY FCST OVR THE SWRN            
PTN OF THE CWA.  WILL CONT EXCESSIVE HT WRNG TDA THRU SUN WITH THIS             
AFTNS MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH PTNS OF N-NERN MO               
MAY BE A COUPLE OF DGRS COOLER DUE TO CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS LTR              
THIS MRNG INTO THIS AFTN.  MAX TEMPS MAY BE A TAD COOLER ON FRI WITH            
CDFNT SAGGING SWD INTO SERN MO BY 00Z SAT PER GFS.  ETA...NAM APRS              
TOO FAR S WITH CDFNT BY THIS TIME.  ALTHOUGH SFC WNDS WL BE OUT OF              
THE N-NE ON FRI...MID-UPR LVL PATTERN STILL LOOKS VRY WRM WITH 597              
DM HGTS OVR WRN MO AT 500 MB AND LTL POTENTIAL FOR ANY CONVECTION.              
THIS MID-UPR LVL RDG WL CONT TO BLD EWD INTO THE AREA INTO THE                  
WEEKEND WITH LTL CHC OF CONVECTION...AND HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS               
CONTINUING.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 7 AM TODAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY FOR                  
     AUDRAIN...BOONE...CALLAWAY...COLE...CRAWFORD...FRANKLIN...                 
     GASCONADE...IRON...JEFFERSON...KNOX...LEWIS...LINCOLN...                   
     MADISON...MARION...MONITEAU...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...OSAGE...               
     PIKE...RALLS...REYNOLDS...SHELBY...ST. CHARLES...                          
     ST. FRANCOIS...ST. LOUIS...ST. LOUIS CITY...                               
     STE. GENEVIEVE...WARREN...AND WASHINGTON.                                  
IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 7 AM TODAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY FOR                  
     ADAMS IL...BOND IL...BROWN IL...CALHOUN IL...CLINTON IL...                 
     FAYETTE IL...GREENE IL...JERSEY IL...MACOUPIN IL...                        
     MADISON IL...MARION IL...MONROE IL...MONTGOMERY IL...                      
     PIKE IL...RANDOLPH IL...ST. CLAIR IL...AND WASHINGTON IL.                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GKS                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV                                           
256 AM PDT THU JUL 21 2005                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA HAS ALLOWED                
MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO SWEEP INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE                
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST THE REST                 
OF THE WEEK...WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS              
AND SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FIVE TO TEN DEGREES LOWER FROM THE            
FIRST OF THE WEEK DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES.           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING.              
IN THE VERY SHORT TERM THIS MORNING I AM LOOKING A CLUSTER OF                   
PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS IN YAVAPAI COUNTY THAT WILL SHORTLY MOVE               
INTO MOHAVE COUNTY. RUC AND NAM DEPICT INVERTED TROUGH AND VORT MAX             
ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH                     
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM CLUSTER. MIGHT BE A BIT OVER DONE WITH               
THE QPF AND STRENGTH BUT STILL EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO PERSIST AS IT             
MOVES INTO MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR TO THE NORTH. HAVE UPPED POPS OVER            
MOHAVE AND CLARK COUNTIES THIS MORNING AS A RESULT. OTHERWISE STILL             
LOOK FOR CONTINUED CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER THE PRIMARILY SOUTHERN                
PORTIONS OF CWA THROUGH OUT THE SHORT TERM WITH DIURNAL MAXIMUMS IN             
THE AFTERNOONS. MODELS CONSISTENT AND IN AGREEMENT IN KEEPING                   
MONSOON FLOW OVER THE AREA. FORECAST CAPE AND PW LOOK FAVORABLE AS              
WELL. REMNANTS OF EMILY WILL COME IN TO PLAY ON SATURDAY AND SEND               
ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. CONCERN TO THINK ABOUT WHEN                
THIS OCCURS IN THE FLOODING POTENTIAL IN WHAT WILL BE VERY MOIST AIR.           
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...MORE MESSY WEATHER ON SUNDAY AS MOISTURE FROM THE                  
EMILY-DRIVEN SURGE SHOULD STILL BE IN PLACE. YESTERDAY...THE CONCERN            
WAS WHETHER OR NOT THE WESTERLIES WOULD GET FAR ENOUGH SOUTH EARLY              
NEXT WEEK TO START SCOURING OUT THE MOISTURE. TODAY...THE TREND IS              
LEANING MORE TOWARDS AN ANSWER OF NO...WITH THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO            
BEING THE RIDGE REBUILDING OVERHEAD AND TRAPPING ALL THE RESIDUAL               
MOISTURE UNDERNEATH. THUS...WE NOW HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE                      
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS ALL THE WAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A BIAS              
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWFA WHERE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY               
SHOULD BE GREATEST. NO CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE.            
POINT FORECASTS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON COVERAGE OF CLOUDS AND              
THUNDERSTORMS.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...SOME SHOWERS ALREADY UNDERWAY IN THE PEACH SPRINGS AND              
MORMON MESA CORRIDORS THIS MORNING...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS               
EXPECTED IN ALL APPROACH CORRIDORS AND NEAR KLAS FROM LATE MORNING              
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.NV...NONE.                                                                     
.AZ...NONE.                                                                     
.CA...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JACQUES/MORGAN                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   nv                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED TO ADD TO LONG TERM DISCUSSION               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY                                             
500 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2005                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS BUT             
THE HEAT WILL NOT BE AS OPPRESSIVE AS THAT EXPERIENCED THROUGH LAST             
WEEKEND. READINGS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL                
RATHER THAN 10 TO 15...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB TO             
UNCOMFORTABLE LEVELS.                                                           
OUR UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL THEN FEATURE MORE PLEASANT CONDITIONS AS              
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH OUT OF EASTERN CANADA. THIS                 
BREAK FROM THE 'HEAT OF 2005' WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS TEMPS               
WILL TAKE A ROLLER COASTER RIDE BACK TO SULTRY LEVELS FOR THE FIRST             
HALF OF NEX WEEK.                                                               
PRECIPITATION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO COME            
BY...DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL FRONTAL SYSTEMS.                            
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                         
THE SUMMER OF 2005 HAS FEATURED PLENTY OF RECORD HEAT...BUT A                   
SERIOUS LACK OF ANY MCS ACTIVITY. THIS HAS ESPECIALLY BEEN THE CASE             
TO OUR WEST...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH A RARE 2005 MCS THIS                
MORNING.                                                                        
CONVECTION FIRED UP LAST EVENING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS               
DRAPED ACROSS THE UPPER MID WEST. AS OF 0630Z...THE CONVECTION WAS              
CENTERED OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE AND NORTHERN OHIO. CLOUD TOP TEMPS              
AND LTG ACTIVITY SHOW THAT THE ACTIVITY IS HOLDING TOGETHER...AND AS            
MENTIONED IN THE CHAT ROOM TO CTP/CLE...THE NAM AND RUC ARE DOING               
SURPRISINGLY WELL IN DEPICTING THIS.                                            
A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT IS HELPING TO SUPPORT THIS ACTIVITY WILL PASS             
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WHILE I DO BELIEVE THAT THE              
CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN TOWARDS DAYBREAK (CLIMATOLOGY)...I HAVE ADDED            
CHC POPS TO THE SRN TIER TO HANDLE THE LEFTOVER ACTIVITY. SLGT CHC              
WILL BE USED FOR THE IAG FRONTIER.                                              
OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL BECOME A LITTLE WARMER AND MORE HUMID THAN               
THE PAST TWO DAYS. H8 TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB TO AROUND +18C IN THE WEST             
AND +16C IN THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. AS A RESULT TEMPS                  
SHOULD EASILY CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S IN MOST AREAS WITH               
SOME 90 DEGREE READINGS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES                  
REGION.                                                                         
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL APPROACH THE REGION            
TONIGHT...THEN PASS THROUGH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL               
HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND VERY LITTLE JET ASSISTANCE...             
SO ONLY SLGT CHC POPS WILL BE USED TO COVER ANY TRW POTENTIAL.                  
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM ONTARIO ON FRIDAY                 
NIGHT...SO HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR ANY PCPN. THIS IS A BIG CHANGE FROM            
CONTINUITY...BUT IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE NAM AND TRUSTED GFS.                  
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START A SHORT LIVED PERIOD OF 'NORMAL'              
MID SUMMER WEATHER...WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPS CLOSE TO                 
SEASONAL NORMS FOR BOTH DAYS OF THE WEEKEND.                                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                        
THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW OF            
WARMER AIR OVERSPREADING THE AREA. SUNDAY NGT A WARM FRNT OVER THE              
LOWER LAKES MOVES NE AND BRINGS CHC SHWR/TSTM.                                  
UPPER ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH EXACT TIMING             
OF PASSING LOW CENTERS SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.  AT             
THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE A LOW WILL BE EXITING THE AREA MONDAY                   
MORNING; THEN ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND            
EXIT THE EASTERN LAKES WEDNESDAY, WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND                  
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES                   
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND NEAR NORMAL              
WEDNESDAY.                                                                      
LOOKING FURTHER OUT...A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE SHOULD BE IN THE                   
OFFING. THE LONG WAVE RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED MUCH OF THE COUNTRY              
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF MONTHS IS EXPECTED TO RE-ORIENT ITSELF SO               
THAT IT BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. AS A                 
RESULT...A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE GREAT              
LAKES REGION WITH TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO MORE TYPICAL LEVELS.                 
THE CHANGE WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE WAKE OF A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONTAL            
PASSAGE NEXT WEDNESDAY (JUL 27). GFS BASED ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD                
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SOLUTION...AND HAVE BEEN FOR THE PAST COUPLE                
RUNS. THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE INTO NEAR TO BELOW                  
NORMAL TEMPS FOR OUR REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF (THURS-SAT) OF NEXT             
WEEK.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
EXPECT ONLY SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD AS A WEAKENING TROF SLIDES ACROSS              
OUR REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH             
TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
LOOK FOR LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS TODAY...TURNING VARIABLE ON THE OPEN              
WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO. WINDS WILL TEND NORTHERLY FOLLOWING A                   
SECONDARY FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.                              
&&                                                                              
.CLIMO...                                                                       
WED MORNING'S MIN OF 65 AT BUF ENDED AN 8 DAY STRETCH OF MINIMUM                
TEMPS IN 70S. THIS IS LONGEST CONSEC RUN EVER AT AIRPORT (SINCE                 
1943). ALSO...FIRST 20 DAYS OF JULY AVERAGING 76.3...BUF'S WARMEST              
MONTH IN HISTORY IS 76.2 (JULY 1921). LAST TEN DAYS LOOK TO AVERAGE             
CLOSER TO NORMAL THOUGH.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.BUFFALO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                         
.NY...NONE.                                                                     
.MARINE...NONE.                                                                 
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...RSH                                                                
LONG TERM...JJP/APB/RSH                                                         
AVIATION/MARINE/CLIMO...SFM                                                     
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
408 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM(TODAY - FRIDAY NIGHT)...                                            
TODAY...WEAKENING H5 SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS CWA THIS MORNING.              
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A SCT/BKN MID DECK THROUGH LATE MORNING. BUF                
RADAR SHOWS CONVECTION ABOUT TO MOVE INTO WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. RUC            
INDICATES ACTIVITY MAY REACH CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER. WILL INCLUDE                
SLIGHT CHC HERE FOR THE MORNING HOURS. OVERALL A PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY            
DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.                                         
TONIGHT...ANOTHER MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH TEMPS A CATEGORY HIGHER.              
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...NAM/GFS FAIRLY CLOSE WITH TIMING OF COLD FRONT            
AS NAM HAS SPED UP FROPA WITH LATEST RUN. MOS POPS LOW BOTH                     
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT DUE MAINLY TO LACK OF MOISTURE AS DYNAMICS                  
FAIRLY STRONG FOR LATE JULY. WILL GO 20 POPS BOTH FRIDAY                        
AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING MOST AREAS AND WAIT FOR LATER RUNS TO                  
REFINE POP AS I PREFER NOT TO USE THE "HIDDEN POP".                             
RRM                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SAT - WEDNESDAY)...                                                 
SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY MIDDAY ON SATURDAY AS HIGH                  
PRESSURE BUILDS IN, BRINGING COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR INTO CENTRAL             
NY/NE PA. SUNDAY SHOULD SEE CONTINUED SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH LOW                 
HUMIDITY. HAZY...HOT...AND HUMID CONDITIONS MOVE BACK IN ON MONDAY              
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN             
THE ACTION ON TUESDAY...BUT ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH             
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, WITH A CHANCE OF                          
THUNDERSTORMS. THAT COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE THE BEGINNING OF A                   
PATTERN CHANGE...WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH BUILDING INTO THE ERN U.S.              
AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK. JVA.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (21/06Z - 22/06Z)...                                                  
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF                  
VALLEY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING (ELM) WHERE FOG MAY RESTRICT VSBY TO              
IFR/MVFR. THROUGH MIDDAY A SCT/BKN MID DECK WILL CROSS THE AREA THEN            
JUST SCT CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5K FT. OVERNIGHT WILL BE                  
MAINLY CLEAR WITH JUST SOME CIRRUS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT             
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND GENERALLY FROM THE WEST.   RRM                           
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.NY...NONE.                                                                     
.PA...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
300 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2005                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...WATER VAPOR (WV) IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LVL RIDGING                    
DOMINATES THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS...WHILE A SERIES OF SHORT              
WAVE TROUGHS ARE MOVING AROUND THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE                 
ACROSS THE MIDWEST REGION. RUC40 1000-500MB STREAMLINES INDICATE THAT           
THE MEAN LAYER BERMUDA RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS GA...AND SUCH A                
POSITION CONTINUES SSE FLOW OVER THE JAX CWA TONIGHT. WE REMAIN                 
UNSEASONABLY DRY AS THE KJAX 00Z RAOB REPORTED A PWAT OF ONLY 1.6               
INCHES. WV SHOWS A SWATH OF DRY AIR MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON THE SE            
SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...BUT NOTE THAT AS TROUGHING ACROSS THE                 
MIDWEST IS BREAKING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND ALLOWING MORE           
MOISTURE TO CREEP SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE JAX CWA.                                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THRU SAT...THE UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE                
TO BREAK DOWN TODAY ACROSS THE SE REGION AS TROUGHING ACROSS THE                
MIDWEST ADVANCES SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE MEAN LAYER BERMUDA              
RIDGE AXIS TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD AS WELL...AND POSITION OVER THE                   
FORECAST AREA TODAY PROVIDING LIGHT STEERING FLOW AND ALLOW FOR                 
ANOTHER INLAND SEABREEZE MERGER. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD SLIGHTLY HIGHER            
POPS ACROSS OUR GA ZONES THIS AFTN AS SUBSIDENCE WILL BE WEAKENING              
OVER THESE ZONES AND MOISTURE INCREASING. FRI THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS               
SHUNTS FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH AS A SFC BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST           
REGION. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING SSW TO THE AREA AS WELL AS MORE              
MOISTURE WITH PWATS NEARING 2 INCHES...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH                   
INCREASING POPS FRI ACROSS THE BOARD WITH 40% INLAND TO 30% NEAR THE            
COAST. SAT THE SFC FRONT WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF OUR GA ZONES WHICH            
WILL KEEP THE JAX CWA IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS               
WITH CONVECTION ENHANCED IN THE AFTN BY SEABREEZE AND BOUNDARY                  
COLLISIONS. STEERING FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WLY SO AFTN CONVECTION               
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL APPROACH THE EAST COAST DURING THE EVENING             
HOURS. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING...MAINLY WHERE                  
RAINFALL OCCURRED THE PREVIOUS DAY.                                             
TEMPS WILL REMAIN AOA CLIMO VALUES WITH MAXES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S             
AND MINS IN THE MID 70S. THESE VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD                    
UNCOMFORTABLE HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER 100S.                                   
.LONG TERM...SUN THRU WED...THE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE OVER THE                  
REGION AS UPPER LVL HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS               
AND ALLOWS THE LOW LVL BERMUDA RIDGE TO BUILD BACK OVER CENTRAL FL.             
THE CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL TAPER FROM 40-50% THIS WEEKEND...TO NEAR              
CLIMO VALUES OF 35-40% BY MID-WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE AOA CLIMO VALUES              
FROM THE LOW-MID 90S TO LOW-MID 70S.                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH              
SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS...EXCEPT FOR THE OCCASIONAL                    
NOCTURNAL SURGE NEAR 15 KNOTS ACRS THE GA WTRS. OTHERWISE THE ONLY              
OTHER NOTEWORTHY ITEM WILL BE POSSIBLE INCREASE IN EASTERLY SWELLS              
FROM A DEVELOPING WAVE TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...STILL MUCH                  
UNCERTAINITY IN THIS SYSTEM ON TRACK AND POSSIBLE INTENSITY.                    
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
AMG  94  74  94  75 /  40  30  40  40                                           
SSI  90  78  90  79 /  20  10  30  40                                           
JAX  93  75  92  76 /  20  10  40  40                                           
SGJ  90  78  90  78 /  20  10  30  30                                           
GNV  95  74  93  75 /  40  20  40  40                                           
OCF  94  74  93  75 /  30  20  40  40                                           
&&                                                                              
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC...ENYEDI                                                                 
MARINE/FIRE WX...HESS                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
940 AM EST THU JUL 21 2005                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
CONCERNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WILL CENTER AROUND MCS HOLDING              
TOGETHER ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND TO A LESSER EXTENT NORTHERN              
ILLINOIS. SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS AREA HAS BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP               
FURTHER SOUTH BUT APPEARS TO BE STRUGGLING AT THIS TIME DESPITE MAIN            
INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS THIS AREA WITH MSAS LI'S AROUND -7 C ALREADY            
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CNTRL AND NE IL. STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY                
LOCATED FROM SOUTHERN WI/N IL INTO SOUTHER LWR MI. KLOT RADAR                   
SHOWING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW WORKING EAST APPROACHING JOLIET AND                
CHICAGO METRO AREA. THIS BOUNDARY AND CURRENT STORMS OVER IL WILL BE            
MOVING INTO  WOULD EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE EAST...POSSIBLY BECOMING             
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR OUR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE             
WESTERN AREAS. SVR WATCH ISSUED A BIT AGO UP TO THE IN/IL STATE                 
LINE. WOULD EXPECT INSTABILITY TO INCREASE ACROSS ENTIRE CWA THIS               
AFTERNOON AS SFC DEWPTS SITTING AOA 70 DEGREES IN MANY                          
AREAS...COMBINED WITH TEMPS ALREADY PUSHING 80 IN WESTERN AREAS                 
SHOULD YIELD FAIRLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. 12Z NAM/6Z GFS DEPICT                  
MID-UPR 70S DEWPTS TO THE WEST OF US THROUGH EARLY AFTN THEN                    
SHIFTING EAST INTO OUR AREA...YIELDING LI'S -9 TO -11 C AND CAPES               
WELL OVER 3000 J/KG. HOWEVER...BASED ON OBS...DEWPOINTS SEVERAL                 
DEGREES LOWER THAN MODELS SHOWING AT THIS TIME. WOULD NOT BE                    
SURPRISED TO SEE DEWPTS CLIMB SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GOOD                 
CONVERGENCE SETTING UP...BUT THINK MODELS MAY BE OVERDONE SOMEWHAT.             
REGARDLESS...SVR THREAT EXISTS...BUT AT THIS TIME WILL HOLD OFF ON              
MENTION IN ZONES AND MONITOR TRENDS TO THE WEST. HWO HAS THINGS                 
COVERED AT THIS TIME...SO WILL PLACE MENTION OF STRONG STORMS AND               
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE SCT WORDING AREA. REST OF THE FORECAST               
APPEARS FINE AT THIS TIME...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO OR ABOVE            
90 IN MANY AREAS AS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS PASSING MAINLY NORTH OF THE               
AREA.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSIONS                                                               
AVIATION/PREVIOUS UPDATE...                                                     
UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS THIS AM W/IMPRESSIVE UPSTREAM SVR MCS ACRS SRN              
MN AND NRN IA. AT LEAST SHRT TERM RUC INDICATIONS ALG W/06Z 12KM NAM            
PAINTING A REASONABLY SOLID FCST SCENARIO INTO THIS AFTN AND MORESO             
THIS EVENING. LTL TO WORRY ABT EARLY ON W/RAPIDLY DECAYING CONV                 
CLUSTER OVR CNTRL INDIANA W/HIGH CLD SHIELD ERODING QUICKLY AND                 
WHICH SHLD GIVE WAY TO SCT CU BY MID AM. HWVR BEYOND THAT...ATTN                
TURNS WWD W/INCOMING MCV AND ASSOCD COUPLED OFB/GRAVITY WAVE PACKET.            
WOULD SUSPECT CONVN TO MAINTAIN N OF SFC BNDRY AS GRAVITY WAVE CONTS            
PROPAGATING EWD ALG SFC BNDRY AND IN AGREEMENT W/09Z RUC. ENHANCED              
MID LVL MESOSCALE SW HANDLED SIMILARLY W/INCREASING DOWNSTREAM LL               
WIND RESPONSE XPCD AND GIVEN PRESENCE OF STG THETA-E GRADIENT                   
IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM OVR IL...SOME QN REMAINS ON HOW EARLY CONV                 
DVLPMNT MAY OCCUR HERE. EARLIER LOOKING BTR AND W/12Z TAF ISSUANCE              
HAVE INSERTED TEMPO THUNDER FM 23Z/SBN TO 01Z/FWA TO START. THIS                
ALREADY ACCOUNTED FOR IN ZONE TIMING ALTHOUGH IMPLIED CHC LOOKING               
GREATER TWD EVENING THEN CURRENTLY SUGGESTED. OTHERWISE POST OUTFLW             
PRESTORM DESTABILIZATION SIGNAL VERY MIXED W/09Z RUC INDICATION WELL            
N AND E OF 06Z NAM. THIS QUITE TROUBLING GIVEN INHERENT SVR                     
POTENTIAL INADV OF MCV INDUCED MID LVL WIND MAX AND POTENTIAL FOR               
NEARBY OFB TO MIX NEWD THIS AFTN. WILL AWAIT 12Z DATA FOR BTR                   
CONSENSUS.                                                                      
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
MORE QN/S THEN ANSWERS THIS AM. SADLY...BULK OF CWA GETTING SPLIT BY            
CONVN W/VRY IMPRESSIVE CLUSTER OVR NE IL ATTM AND RIGHT WHERE GFS               
INDICATED LAST NIGHT. OF NOTE IS DEEP OFB ANCHORED UPSTREAM W/LLJ               
ALIGNMENT INTO IT OVR IL WHICH SUGGESTS THIS CLUSTER WILL CONT FOR              
SOME TIME THIS AM AS IT DIVES SEWD INTO WRN INDIANA. OF GREATER                 
INTEREST IS MATURE SEVERE MCS ACRS NE NEB W/APPARENT WAKE LOW BEHIND            
IT. 00Z GUIDANCE SEEMS TO CAPTURE THE DVLPMNT OF THIS FTR TO SOME               
DEGREE BUT DETAIL RESOLUTION EXPECTANTLY POOR AND NOD TWD TIMING                
ARRIVAL OF UPSTREAM MCV GIVEN TWD 06Z RUC/12KM NAM. ATTM DOUBT OFB              
WILL MOVE IF AT ALL AND LIKELY FOCUS SFC BASED DVLPMNT THIS AFTN                
WELL W ACRS IL. HWVR THAT SAID...OUTFLW BUBBLE IN PLACE INADV OF                
EJECTING NEB RIDGE RIDER VRY WELL COULD FIRE ELEVATED CONVN OVRTOP              
CWA LT THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT AS MCV ENHANCED LLJ DVLPS W/STG                    
ELEVATED THETA-E FLUX INTO ESP NRN INDIANA OVERNIGHT AND WHICH FITS             
WITHIN GOING GFS/NAM/RUC SOLUTIONS ALTHOUGH GFS LOOKS TOO FAR N                 
OVERNIGHT. 06Z 12KM NAM LOOKS EXCEEDINGLY WELL AND WILL FOLLOW                  
CLOSELY FOR LT THIS AFTN/OVERNIGHT.                                             
OTHERWISE...LLJ SEGMENT ACRS IL LOOKS TO WKN LTR THIS AM AND SHLD               
RESULT IN RAPID DECAY OF ONGOING MCS AND CLOUD DEBRIS BY MID/LATE AM.           
THUS PROGGED INSOLATION WITHIN A BIT WARMER THERMAL RIDGE THEN YDA              
SHLD EQUATE TO LOW 90S FOR MOST.                                                
LONG TERM...                                                                    
NOT MUCH GOING ON IN THE FRIDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THE BIGGEST            
THING IS A FRONT AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW THE TIMING            
IS TO HAVE THE COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO               
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND                   
SATURDAY. SUNDAY MODELS ARE DIFFERING SOMEWHAT. GFS80 HAS A LOW                 
MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH QUEBEC SUNDAY WITH A TROUGH DOWN INTO                   
MICHIGAN AND HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. DGEX HAS SUNDAY            
WET AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND THEN IT MOVES THAT LOW                   
NORTHEAST WHILE BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY                   
NIGHT. THEN HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY. ECMWF HAS HIGH PRESSURE IN                
PLACE FOR SUNDAY. THE CANADIAN MODEL'S STORY FOR SUNDAY IS A LOW IN             
WISCONSIN WITH A WARM FRONT TO THE EAST OF US AND KEEPING SUNDAY                
DRY. THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY HAS BEEN DRY AND WITH JUST THE DGEX                
SHOWING RAIN WITH A DIFFERING SCENARIO THAN OTHER MODELS, HAVE KEPT             
SUNDAY DRY. THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THAT                 
FRONT PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN JUST EXPECTING                 
TEMPERATURES TO REACH TO UP AROUND 80 FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY.                       
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...FISHER                                                                 
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HOLSTEN                                                   
LONG TERM...LOTHAMER                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
600 AM EST THU JUL 21 2005                                                      
.AVIATION/UPDATE...                                                             
UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS THIS AM W/IMPRESSIVE UPSTREAM SVR MCS ACRS SRN              
MN AND NRN IA. AT LEAST SHRT TERM RUC INDICATIONS ALG W/06Z 12KM NAM            
PAINTING A REASONABLY SOLID FCST SCENARIO INTO THIS AFTN AND MORESO             
THIS EVENING. LTL TO WORRY ABT EARLY ON W/RAPIDLY DECAYING CONV                 
CLUSTER OVR CNTRL INDIANA W/HIGH CLD SHIELD ERODING QUICKLY AND                 
WHICH SHLD GIVE WAY TO SCT CU BY MID AM. HWVR BEYOND THAT...ATTN                
TURNS WWD W/INCOMING MCV AND ASSOCD COUPLED OFB/GRAVITY WAVE PACKET.            
WOULD SUSPECT CONVN TO MAINTAIN N OF SFC BNDRY AS GRAVITY WAVE CONTS            
PROPAGATING EWD ALG SFC BNDRY AND IN AGREEMENT W/09Z RUC. ENHANCED              
MID LVL MESOSCALE SW HANDLED SIMILARLY W/INCREASING DOWNSTREAM LL               
WIND RESPONSE XPCD AND GIVEN PRESENCE OF STG THETA-E GRADIENT                   
IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM OVR IL...SOME QN REMAINS ON HOW EARLY CONV                 
DVLPMNT MAY OCCUR HERE. EARLIER LOOKING BTR AND W/12Z TAF ISSUANCE              
HAVE INSERTED TEMPO THUNDER FM 23Z/SBN TO 01Z/FWA TO START. THIS                
ALREADY ACCOUNTED FOR IN ZONE TIMING ALTHOUGH IMPLIED CHC LOOKING               
GREATER TWD EVENING THEN CURRENTLY SUGGESTED. OTHERWISE POST OUTFLW             
PRESTORM DESTABILIZATION SIGNAL VERY MIXED W/09Z RUC INDICATION WELL            
N AND E OF 06Z NAM. THIS QUITE TROUBLING GIVEN INHERENT SVR                     
POTENTIAL INADV OF MCV INDUCED MID LVL WIND MAX AND POTENTIAL FOR               
NEARBY OFB TO MIX NEWD THIS AFTN. WILL AWAIT 12Z DATA FOR BTR                   
CONSENSUS.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
MORE QN/S THEN ANSWERS THIS AM. SADLY...BULK OF CWA GETTING SPLIT BY            
CONVN W/VRY IMPRESSIVE CLUSTER OVR NE IL ATTM AND RIGHT WHERE GFS               
INDICATED LAST NIGHT. OF NOTE IS DEEP OFB ANCHORED UPSTREAM W/LLJ               
ALIGNMENT INTO IT OVR IL WHICH SUGGESTS THIS CLUSTER WILL CONT FOR              
SOME TIME THIS AM AS IT DIVES SEWD INTO WRN INDIANA. OF GREATER                 
INTEREST IS MATURE SEVERE MCS ACRS NE NEB W/APPARENT WAKE LOW BEHIND            
IT. 00Z GUIDANCE SEEMS TO CAPTURE THE DVLPMNT OF THIS FTR TO SOME               
DEGREE BUT DETAIL RESOLUTION EXPECTANTLY POOR AND NOD TWD TIMING                
ARRIVAL OF UPSTREAM MCV GIVEN TWD 06Z RUC/12KM NAM. ATTM DOUBT OFB              
WILL MOVE IF AT ALL AND LIKELY FOCUS SFC BASED DVLPMNT THIS AFTN                
WELL W ACRS IL. HWVR THAT SAID...OUTFLW BUBBLE IN PLACE INADV OF                
EJECTING NEB RIDGE RIDER VRY WELL COULD FIRE ELEVATED CONVN OVRTOP              
CWA LT THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT AS MCV ENHANCED LLJ DVLPS W/STG                    
ELEVATED THETA-E FLUX INTO ESP NRN INDIANA OVERNIGHT AND WHICH FITS             
WITHIN GOING GFS/NAM/RUC SOLUTIONS ALTHOUGH GFS LOOKS TOO FAR N                 
OVERNIGHT. 06Z 12KM NAM LOOKS EXCEEDINGLY WELL AND WILL FOLLOW                  
CLOSELY FOR LT THIS AFTN/OVERNIGHT.                                             
OTHERWISE...LLJ SEGMENT ACRS IL LOOKS TO WKN LTR THIS AM AND SHLD               
RESULT IN RAPID DECAY OF ONGOING MCS AND CLOUD DEBRIS BY MID/LATE AM.           
THUS PROGGED INSOLATION WITHIN A BIT WARMER THERMAL RIDGE THEN YDA              
SHLD EQUATE TO LOW 90S FOR MOST.                                                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
NOT MUCH GOING ON IN THE FRIDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THE BIGGEST            
THING IS A FRONT AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW THE TIMING            
IS TO HAVE THE COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO               
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND                   
SATURDAY. SUNDAY MODELS ARE DIFFERING SOMEWHAT. GFS80 HAS A LOW                 
MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH QUEBEC SUNDAY WITH A TROUGH DOWN INTO                   
MICHIGAN AND HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. DGEX HAS SUNDAY            
WET AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND THEN IT MOVES THAT LOW                   
NORTHEAST WHILE BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY                   
NIGHT. THEN HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY. ECMWF HAS HIGH PRESSURE IN                
PLACE FOR SUNDAY. THE CANADIAN MODEL'S STORY FOR SUNDAY IS A LOW IN             
WISCONSIN WITH A WARM FRONT TO THE EAST OF US AND KEEPING SUNDAY                
DRY. THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY HAS BEEN DRY AND WITH JUST THE DGEX                
SHOWING RAIN WITH A DIFFERING SCENARIO THAN OTHER MODELS, HAVE KEPT             
SUNDAY DRY. THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THAT                 
FRONT PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN JUST EXPECTING                 
TEMPERATURES TO REACH TO UP AROUND 80 FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY.                       
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HOLSTEN                                                   
LONG TERM...LOTHAMER                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
253 AM EST THU JUL 21 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
MORE QN/S THEN ANSWERS THIS AM. SADLY...BULK OF CWA GETTING SPLIT BY            
CONVN W/VRY IMPRESSIVE CLUSTER OVR NE IL ATTM AND RIGHT WHERE GFS               
INDICATED LAST NIGHT. OF NOTE IS DEEP OFB ANCHORED UPSTREAM W/LLJ               
ALIGNMENT INTO IT OVR IL WHICH SUGGESTS THIS CLUSTER WILL CONT FOR              
SOME TIME THIS AM AS IT DIVES SEWD INTO WRN INDIANA. OF GREATER                 
INTEREST IS MATURE SEVERE MCS ACRS NE NEB W/APPARENT WAKE LOW BEHIND            
IT. 00Z GUIDANCE SEEMS TO CAPTURE THE DVLPMNT OF THIS FTR TO SOME               
DEGREE BUT DETAIL RESOLUTION EXPECTANTLY POOR AND NOD TWD TIMING                
ARRIVAL OF UPSTREAM MCV GIVEN TWD 06Z RUC/12KM NAM. ATTM DOUBT OFB              
WILL MOVE IF AT ALL AND LIKELY FOCUS SFC BASED DVLPMNT THIS AFTN                
WELL W ACRS IL. HWVR THAT SAID...OUTFLW BUBBLE IN PLACE INADV OF                
EJECTING NEB RIDGE RIDER VRY WELL COULD FIRE ELEVATED CONVN OVRTOP              
CWA LT THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT AS MCV ENHANCED LLJ DVLPS W/STG                    
ELEVATED THETA-E FLUX INTO ESP NRN INDIANA OVERNIGHT AND WHICH FITS             
WITHIN GOING GFS/NAM/RUC SOLUTIONS ALTHOUGH GFS LOOKS TOO FAR N                 
OVERNIGHT. 06Z 12KM NAM LOOKS EXCEEDINGLY WELL AND WILL FOLLOW                  
CLOSELY FOR LT THIS AFTN/OVERNIGHT.                                             
OTHERWISE...LLJ SEGMENT ACRS IL LOOKS TO WKN LTR THIS AM AND SHLD               
RESULT IN RAPID DECAY OF ONGOING MCS AND CLOUD DEBRIS BY MID/LATE AM.           
THUS PROGGED INSOLATION WITHIN A BIT WARMER THERMAL RIDGE THEN YDA              
SHLD EQUATE TO LOW 90S FOR MOST.                                                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
NOT MUCH GOING ON IN THE FRIDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THE BIGGEST            
THING IS A FRONT AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW THE TIMING            
IS TO HAVE THE COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO               
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND                   
SATURDAY. SUNDAY MODELS ARE DIFFERING SOMEWHAT. GFS80 HAS A LOW                 
MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH QUEBEC SUNDAY WITH A TROUGH DOWN INTO                   
MICHIGAN AND HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. DGEX HAS SUNDAY            
WET AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND THEN IT MOVES THAT LOW                   
NORTHEAST WHILE BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY                   
NIGHT. THEN HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY. ECMWF HAS HIGH PRESSURE IN                
PLACE FOR SUNDAY. THE CANADIAN MODEL'S STORY FOR SUNDAY IS A LOW IN             
WISCONSIN WITH A WARM FRONT TO THE EAST OF US AND KEEPING SUNDAY                
DRY. THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY HAS BEEN DRY AND WITH JUST THE DGEX                
SHOWING RAIN WITH A DIFFERING SCENARIO THAN OTHER MODELS, HAVE KEPT             
SUNDAY DRY. THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THAT                 
FRONT PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN JUST EXPECTING                 
TEMPERATURES TO REACH TO UP AROUND 80 FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY.                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
DIFFICULT TAF CYCLE THIS AM W/CONVN SPLITTING CWA ATTM. MBE ELEMENT             
ANCHORED OVR NE IL RIGHT WHERE GFS SAID IT WOULD LAST NIGHT AND SHLD            
KEEP FOCUS FOR ADDNL DVLPMNT W OF TAF SITES REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.             
PRIMARY EARLY PROBLEM WILL BE PENCHANT FOR MVFR VSBY REDUCTION TWD              
DAYBREAK AS PRIOR SHIFT HAD ELUDED TO AND LEFT INTACT FOR THIS CYCLE            
ALTHOUGH MID/HIGH CLD SHIELD WILL LIKELY NOT ERODE SUFFICIENTLY TO              
PROMOTE LWR END.                                                                
OTHERWISE SITUATION LT THIS AFTN AND EVENING VEXING W/CONFLICTING               
MODEL SIGNALS AND SVR MCS OVR NE. WILL PROB30 SBN FOR NOW                       
W/CONFIDENCE QUITE LOW.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HOLSTEN                                                   
LONG TERM...LOTHAMER                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
800 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ZONE UPDATE HAS BEEN SENT. NO SIGNIF CHANGES TO FORECAST FOR                    
TONIGHT. STILL SOMEWHAT TRICKY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT CONVECTION WILL             
BE ABLE TO FIRE. CURRENTLY THE SURFACE FRONT HAS EDGED INTO NORTHERN            
IOWA. SFC CONVECTION REMAINS CAPPED WITH WARM LOWER/MID LEVEL                   
TEMPERATURES. DOES LOOK LIKE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WOULD OCCUR             
LATER THIS EVENING AS SPEED CONFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED OVER WEST AND NW            
IA IN THE H925-850 LAYER. JUST ABOVE THIS...ANY PARCEL LIFTED FROM              
ABOUT H800 IS PRETTY MUCH GOOD TO GO ACCORDING TO THE ETA WITH                  
LITTLE OR NO INHIBITION AND CAPES AROUND 4K J/KG. GFS AND RUC                   
MAINTAIN A CAPPING LAYER AROUND H7 AND THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO                    
SUPPRESS CONVECTION GIVEN VEERING H850 FLOW BY 06Z AND DECREASED                
CONFLUENCE/CONVERGENCE BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z. TURNS OUT INITIATING                
CONVECTION OVER IA MAY BE A MOOT POINT IF THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE                
CLUSTER IN SD CAN MAINTAIN ITSELF FOR A WHILE LONGER THIS EVENING.              
STEERING FLOW AND FORWARD PROPAGATING CORF VECTORS WOULD BRING THIS             
ESE ALONG THE ELEVATED BOUNDARY INTO BETTER LOW LEVEL FLOW AND COULD            
MAKE IT INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST                
POPS IN THE NORTHWEST. GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE POOLING AND EVAPOTRANS             
TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING PUSHING DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 70S.             
DEW PTS WILL COME DOWN SOME LATER TONIGHT BUT WILL STILL SUPPORT A              
QUITE WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT. ALL MODELS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR             
TEMPS TO NOT BE AS WARM THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. MADE           
SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN OUTER PERIODS WITH THIS IN MIND AND TO BRING US             
INTO BETTER COLLAB.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JAW                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ia                                                           


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
400 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SFC FRONT IS INTO E UPR MI ATTM WITH ONLY A FEW SCT MID CLOUDS ALONG            
IT. OTHER THAN A VERY ISOLD STRONG CELL IN NEARSHORE WATERS OFF BIG             
BAY LATE YDY AFTN AND ANOTHER CELL THAT POPPED UP COUPLE HOURS AGO N            
OF SSM...THERE WAS NO CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. PCPN OVR SCNTRL UPR           
MI LATE YDY MORNING INTO THE AFTN WAS LEFTOVERS FM MCS THAT CAME E              
OUT OF CNTRL MN YDY MORNING. A QUARTER OF AN INCH AROUND MENOMINEE              
COUNTY...OTHERWISE NO PCPN OVR CWA. LACKING DEEP MOISTURE ALONG THE             
FRONT AND STABILIZATION FM THE MORNING MCS TO THE SOUTH SEEMED TO BE            
MAIN LIMITING FACTORS FOR PCPN.                                                 
MOVING ON...LOOKING FOR THAT NEXT CHANCE OF MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.               
PRIMARY SHORTWAVE THAT PRODUCED THE CONVECTION IS NOW INTO CNTRL                
LAKES WITH SHARP DRYING PROHIBITING ANY PCPN ALONG SFC FRONT AS IT              
PASSES THROUGH. CLUSTER OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOME ECHOES ARE                 
PROGRESSING W TO E ACROSS WI...BUT THESE SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE               
AREA. NEXT SHORTWAVE OF CONCERN IS OVR CNTRL ALBERTA WHICH WILL                 
SHIFT ACROSS UPR LAKES LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HOT RIDGE REMAINS              
OVR W CONUS WITH H5 CENTER OVR GRAND JUNCTION CO PER 00Z ROABS.                 
LARGE AREA OF HIGH TEMPS OVR 100 DEGREES YDY OVR SW CONUS INTO CNTRL            
PLAINS.                                                                         
HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY RISE TODAY WITH HIGH PRES OVR CNTRL CANADA AND N               
PLAINS SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION. NNW FLOW PREVAILS AT SFC-H85 THIS             
AFTN WHICH SHOULD KEEP N TIER OF CWA MUCH COOLER THAN YDY WITH FLOW             
OFF LK SUPERIOR. H85 TEMPS AROUND +10C OVR N LK SUPERIOR TO +14C OVR            
WI BORDER SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 70 BY THE SHORE...TO LOW 80S ALONG               
WISCONSIN AND NEAR LK MI AS N WINDS ARE OFFSHORE. ALBERTA SHORTWAVE             
SHOULD BE VCNTY OF LK WINNEPEG BY THIS EVENING THEN REACH N LK                  
SUPERIOR BY DAYBREAK FRI. LAST NIGHT IT APPEARED THAT THIS SHORTWAVE            
WOULD COMBINE WITH INCREASING SWRLY LLJ AND MOISTURE ADVECTION TO               
SPUR ON A ROUND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION. HOWEVER...BEGINNING WITH 18Z            
RUN OF GFS YDY...MODELS HAVE SHARPLY TRENDED AWAY FM THAT                       
SOLN...WITH PRIMARY LLJ NOW PROGGED WELL TO THE WEST IN THE                     
DAKOTAS...CLOSER TO THE VERY WARM DAYTIME TEMPS. SINCE LLJ LOCATION             
CAN BE TIED TO AMOUNT OF DAYTIME HEATING...IT MAKES SENSE THAT                  
WITHOUT A VERY STRONG SHORTWAVE BEST LLJ WOULD BE WELL TO THE WEST.             
MODEL QPF IS GENERALLY NIL FOR THE 06Z FRI-18Z FRI PERIOD...WHEREAS             
BEFORE AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO 1.00 WERE COMMON ACROSS AT LEAST PARTS OF              
UPR MI. FOR NOW...WILL TREND TOWARD NO PCPN...KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE             
POPS. IF TRENDS CONTINUE...LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL REMAIN DRY.            
PRESSURES WILL RISE AGAIN BY FRIDAY AFTN AND WINDS SHOULD BECOME                
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND ONSHORE. H85 TEMPS AROUND +12C ON AVERAGE                
SUPPORT TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S...WITH A FEW 80S NEAR THE WI BORDER.            
MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS OFF GFS/NAM WITH TEMPS IN LWR 80S AND               
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S YIELD CAPES BTWN 500-1000J/KG WITH NO CIN.             
NAM INDICATES PCPN COULD OCCUR OVR INTERIOR WITH LL CONVERGENCE IN              
AFTN DUE TO LK BREEZES...BUT WITH NEUTRAL TO ONLY WEAK POSITIVE                 
DYNAMICS FOR LIFT AND BEST MOISTURE RETURN FARTHER WEST PER H85                 
THETA-E ADVECTION...WILL SIDE WITH DRY CANADIAN/GFS/RUC 13 SOLN                 
ATTM.                                                                           
MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE SAT/SAT NIGHT FCST BASED ON LATEST TRENDS              
OFF 00Z MODELS. NAM/GFS BOTH INDICATE GOOD SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT             
DEVELOPS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AM ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE              
ADVECTION. NOSE OF H85 JET IS MAINLY OVR MN LATE FRI NIGHT SO KEPT              
POPS OUT FOR FRI NIGHT AS MOST CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF UPR             
MI. AS H85 JET VEERS WSW SAT MORNING SOME SHRA/TS COULD PUSH INTO W             
UPR MI AS ELEVATED CAPES ARE BTWN 500-1000J/KG AND H85-H7 LAPSE                 
RATES RISE ABOVE 6.5C/KM. GFS/CANADIAN NOT AS BULLISH IN DRIVING PCPN           
E ON SAT SO ONLY ADDED POPS FOR W HALF OF CWA ATTM. INCREASED TEMPS             
AS S FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL LIMIT BULK OF LAKE                
COOLING TO ALONG LK MI.                                                         
BY SAT NIGHT...VERY GOOD AGREEMENT EMERGING WITH RESPECT TO PCPN                
CHANCES ALONG WARM FRONT THAT SHIFTS ACROSS CWA AS H85 TROUGH ALONG             
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION AFFECTS THE UPR LAKES.                       
CONSIDERING BACK TO A FEW DAYS AGO THIS HAS BEEN PERIOD FAVORED FOR             
PCPN...CONFIDENCE IS GROWING ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS TO HIGH CHANCE.            
DRY SHORT TERM DROUGHT PATTERN WE HAVE SEEN ACROSS CNTRL/ERN ZONES              
LAST FEW WEEKS SHOULD PROHIBIT ANY MENTION OF LIKELY POPS IN                    
ITSELF...BUT THIS MAY BE AN EVENT WHERE AT LEAST A PERIOD OF                    
RAINFALL SEEMS LIKELY...EVEN IF IT MAY NOT LAST MORE THAN A FEW                 
HOURS WITH WARM FRONT PASSAGE. UKMET/GFS HINT AT WAVE RIDING NE                 
ALONG BOUNDARY WHICH WOULD DEFINETELY BOOST PCPN CHANCES SAT NIGHT              
FOR CNTRL/ERN ZONES. ONCE FRONT AND PCPN EXITS E CWA LATER SUN...A              
NW FLOW DEVELOPS BY AFTN AND WITH H85 TEMPS NEARING +20C...A VERY               
WARM AFTN MAY BE IN STORE. INCREASED TEMPS INTO THE UPR 80S FOR NOW.            
A FEW LWR 90S ARE FEASIBLE IF PCPN CLOUDS ARE OUT OF HERE FAIRLY                
QUICK ON SUN MORNING AS GFS INDICATES.                                          
NO CHANGES WERE MADE BEYOND SUN. PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT IS TRYING TO             
CHANGE TO ONE WITH MUCH LOWER HEIGHTS ALONG N TIER...INCLUDING UPR              
LAKES. STILL SOME TIMING/PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES TO SORT OUT WITH                 
ADVANCING LOW PRES FM PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK SO DID NOT ADD ANY POPS            
TO TUE FCST ATTM DESPITE LATEST PROGS FM ECMWF/UKMET WHICH SUGGEST              
OTHERWISE.                                                                      
COORD WITH APX AND GRB...THANKS.                                                
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JLA                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
855 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS AND ARE ALREADY SENT. HAVE                
UPPED POPS EVERYWHERE AS FEATURES ON SATELLITE AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW            
REAL GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS A FEATURE VERY NOTICEABLE ON WV IS                
ENHANCING THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. PWS GREATER THAN 2" NOTED ON SNDG               
AND WITH A H5 SHEAR AXIS OVER THE AREA BELIEVE THAT THERE IS A GOOD             
SHOT AT GETTING WIDESPREAD SHRA AND TSRA ESPECIALLY AROUND THE I 20             
CORRIDOR AND A BETTER CHANCE THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST ACROSS THE                  
NORTHWEST. THIS ALSO HAS LED TO LOWERING TODAYS HIGHS INTO THE LOWER            
90S EVERYWHERE AS CONVECTION SHOULD START TO POP EARLY AND OVERALL              
CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE AREA OUT OF THE MID 90S. /CAB/               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE                   
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS. FORECAST DIFFICULTY IN THE SHORT TERM               
REGARDS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH...AND              
MIGRATION OF THIS ENERGY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MEAN MID LEVEL RIDGE             
AXIS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WAS LIMITED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON OVER MUCH             
OF THE FORECAST AREA BECAUSE OF A SFC-850MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR                  
JACKSON. MODELS SUGGEST THIS FEATURE WILL BE DISPLACED FARTHER WEST             
TODAY AND THEY GENERATE MORE QPF AS A RESULT. WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS            
FORECAST THINKING WITH LIKELY POPS FAR EASTERN ZONES WHERE THE MID              
LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD HAVE LESS INFLUENCE AND PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED                 
SHORTWAVE ENERGY COULD HAVE MORE IMPACT. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED                  
SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON DESPITE A SEEMINGLY               
OVERWHELMING RIDGE PRESENCE. A PRECIPITABLE WATER AIRMASS IN EXCESS             
OF TWO INCHES AND LACK OF CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD PROMOTE AN EARLY             
ONSET OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. AN EXPANSIVE CUMULUS FIELD TODAY             
WILL LIMIT HEATING ENOUGH TO KEEP CONDITIONS FROM BECOMING  OVER                
OPPRESSIVE...BUT HEAT INDICES COULD STILL REACH 105 IN A FEW                    
LOCATIONS. BY FRIDAY...A MORE DISTINCT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY                
WILL ROTATE SOUTHWARD AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE CENTER OF THE                 
STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL HIGH. MODELS SUGGEST GREATER INHIBITION               
WILL DEVELOP AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS A BIT TO THE EAST AND THIS SHOULD              
SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH...WHILE                  
ALLOWING HOTTER TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE "DELTA" REGION.              
WE WILL HOLD OFF ON A HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS POINT AS TODAY'S                    
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE A LOT TO SAY ABOUT GROUND                    
MOISTURE AND FRIDAY'S TEMPERATURES. /EC/                                        
THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RIGHT ON INTO THE                 
WEEKEND...BRINGING TO MIND A SONG FROM THE 1980S.  THE CENTER OF AN             
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BUILDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS             
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY.  WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES                
EXPECTED TO INCREASE (MAYBE 22 DEGREES CELSIUS)...AND 1000-500 MB               
THICKNII VALUES FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL...HIGH TEMPERATURES                 
SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD HAVE VERY FEW PROBLEMS RISING TO THE                  
WARMEST VALUES SEEN SO FAR THIS SUMMER.  IN FACT...I SUSPECT THAT               
THESE TEMPERATURES MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN WHAT IS                   
CURRENTLY FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IN THE DELTA.  CONSIDERING DEWPOINTS            
IN THE MIDDLE 70S...WE COULD BE FLIRTING WITH EXCESSIVE HEAT                    
CRITERIA.  KEEPING ALL OF THIS IN MIND... HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY            
AFTERNOON WILL BE NUDGED UPWARD A TOUCH AND HEAT WORDING WILL BE                
MAINTAINED IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  SO...ARE YOU              
FEELING "HOT...HOT...HOT"?                                                      
IF THAT WASN'T ENOUGH TO WORRY ABOUT...THERE COULD BE SOME WEAK                 
SURFACE TROUGHINESS HANGING AROUND OUR AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH             
BOUNDARY LAYER THETA-E VALUES IN THE UPPER 340K RANGE.  THESE TWO               
FEATURES COULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING              
THE AFTERNOON HEAT.  INCREASED RIDGING AND HIGHER 700 MB                        
TEMPERATURES SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE                      
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES/PARISHES.  OVER THE              
SOUTHEASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES THOUGH...IT COULD BE A DIFFERENT                  
STORY.  THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE "TROUGH" COMBINED WITH SLIGHTLY            
COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES COULD ALLOW A SCATTERING OF                       
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON.  WITH ALL OF THE INSTABILITY...I'M NOT              
SURE ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.                   
RATHER MARGINAL WIND SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 3 (AS WELL            
AS 6) KM SUGGEST THAT THESE STORMS MAY BE VERY "PULSEY" IN NATURE.              
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHOULD CONTINUE SLIDING OFF TO OUR EAST              
AND SOUTHEAST FROM SUNDAY ONWARD.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW THE                
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO AGAIN COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A                 
SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE GULF BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  WITH MODERATING               
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND THICKNII VALUES...WE SHOULD SEE                 
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES (RELATIVELY SPEAKING OF COURSE) HEADING            
INTO MONDAY.                                                                    
IN WAKE OF THE RIDGE...IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM             
WILL TRY AND PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY                
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  IF THIS PANS OUT...SHOWER AND                  
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.             
BUT UNTIL I CAN SEE SOME SORT OF DISCERNIBLE TREND...I DON'T PLAN ON            
CHANGING MUCH THIS FAR OUT. /#10/                                               
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CAB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ms                                                           


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                            
130 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISOLATED SHRA HAVE RECENTLY DVLPD OVR NWRN MO WHERE LATEST RUC ANLYS            
SHOWING STG 850 MB MOISTURE CNVG.  MORE ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD                
CONVECTION OVR NERN IL ATTM.  OUTFLOW BNDRY FM THIS MCS MAY MOV SWWD            
INTO THE E-NERN PTN OF THE CWA LTR THIS MRNG AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR            
CONVECTION THIS AFTN.  VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVR ERN SD WL MOV SEWD                
THRU IA INTO NWRN IL BY 00Z FRI HELPING TO DESTABILIZE THE                      
ATMOSPHERE OVR THE NERN PTN OF THE CWA THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVNG.                
SFC CDFNT WILL ALSO BE SAGGING SWD INTO NRN MO BY 00Z FRI.                      
ETA...NAM MDL SHOWING PLENTY OF INSTABILITY OVR THE CWA THIS AFTN               
WITH HIGHEST K INDICES OF 43 TO 47 OVR THE NRN AND ERN PTN OF THE               
CWA ARND 00Z FRI.  LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE RELATIVELY STG CAP OVR               
THE WRN PTN OF THE CWA WITH MDLS DEPICTING 700 MB TEMPS OF 12-14                
DGRS C THIS AFTN.  PLAN TO INCLUDE LOW POPS MAINLY THIS AFTN AND                
EVNG OVR THE NRN AND ERN PTN OF THE CWA WITH A DRY FCST OVR THE SWRN            
PTN OF THE CWA.  WILL CONT EXCESSIVE HT WRNG TDA THRU SUN WITH THIS             
AFTNS MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH PTNS OF N-NERN MO               
MAY BE A COUPLE OF DGRS COOLER DUE TO CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS LTR              
THIS MRNG INTO THIS AFTN.  MAX TEMPS MAY BE A TAD COOLER ON FRI WITH            
CDFNT SAGGING SWD INTO SERN MO BY 00Z SAT PER GFS.  ETA...NAM APRS              
TOO FAR S WITH CDFNT BY THIS TIME.  ALTHOUGH SFC WNDS WL BE OUT OF              
THE N-NE ON FRI...MID-UPR LVL PATTERN STILL LOOKS VRY WRM WITH 597              
DM HGTS OVR WRN MO AT 500 MB AND LTL POTENTIAL FOR ANY CONVECTION.              
THIS MID-UPR LVL RDG WL CONT TO BLD EWD INTO THE AREA INTO THE                  
WEEKEND WITH LTL CHC OF CONVECTION...AND HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS               
CONTINUING.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 7 AM TODAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY FOR                  
     AUDRAIN...BOONE...CALLAWAY...COLE...CRAWFORD...FRANKLIN...                 
     GASCONADE...IRON...JEFFERSON...KNOX...LEWIS...LINCOLN...                   
     MADISON...MARION...MONITEAU...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...OSAGE...               
     PIKE...RALLS...REYNOLDS...SHELBY...ST. CHARLES...                          
     ST. FRANCOIS...ST. LOUIS...ST. LOUIS CITY...                               
     STE. GENEVIEVE...WARREN...AND WASHINGTON.                                  
IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 7 AM TODAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY FOR                  
     ADAMS IL...BOND IL...BROWN IL...CALHOUN IL...CLINTON IL...                 
     FAYETTE IL...GREENE IL...JERSEY IL...MACOUPIN IL...                        
     MADISON IL...MARION IL...MONROE IL...MONTGOMERY IL...                      
     PIKE IL...RANDOLPH IL...ST. CLAIR IL...AND WASHINGTON IL.                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GKS                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT                                            
937 AM MDT THU JUL 21 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...                                          
WILL UPDATE ZFP TO REMOVE POPS IN SE AND RAISE MAXES A FEW                      
DEGREES. NO UPDATE TO WRKAFP. RUC HAD GOOD HANDLE ON SHORTWAVE                  
OVER NE MT THIS MORNING. FEATURE WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR OVERNIGHT                  
STORMS IN NE MT. A STORM FORMED JUST NE OF FALLON COUNTY THIS                   
MORNING BUT HAS SINCE MOVED INTO ND. SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO MOVE                 
INTO ND AROUND 16Z. SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS                  
MORNING AND LACK OF CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS               
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER REGION. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM                   
CANADIAN BORDER BUT MAIN EFFECT WILL BE SHIFT TO MORE NE WINDS                  
OVER THE EAST. TEMPS WERE RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN                   
YESTERDAY MORNING. UNDER FULL SUN...EXPECT QUICK RISE AND GOOD                  
MIXING SO WENT AHEAD AND RAISED TEMPS CLOSER TO 00Z MET GUIDANCE.               
DESPITE GOOD MIXING TODAY...WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY                       
STRONG...SO FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS NOT NEEDED FOR THE AFTERNOON.               
FIRE WX WATCH IN GOOD SHAPE FOR FRIDAY. WILL LOOK CLOSER AT                     
DETAILS WITH NEW MODEL RUNS THIS AFTERNOON. ARTHUR                              
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...                           
QUICK AND DIRTY SUMMARY...INHERITED FORECAST TEMPS IN GOOD SHAPE                
AND MADE LITTLE CHANGES EXCEPT TO COOL TUE DOWN A BIT MORE. MAIN                
CHANGE THIS PACKAGE WAS TO EXTEND POPS INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY                   
NIGHT AS SOME DYNAMICS AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE MAY STILL BE IN THE               
MIX.                                                                            
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DETAILS...WEAK COOL FRONT WILL PASS OVER                    
SOUTHERN MONTANA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY LEAVING NW SURFACE                   
FLOW IN ITS WAKE ALONG WITH A STABLE ATMOSPHERE. SLGHT CHC IN SW                
MTNS FOR LATE DAY INTO NIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES                   
OVER MONTANA SATURDAY NIGHT...THOUGH MAIN ENERGY STAYS NORTH SOME               
MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO BE PULLED INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA                
SUNDAY AND 850H TEMPS STILL AROUND 31C OVER THE AREA. SO WARM                   
ATMOSPHERE BUT CLOUD COVER WILL BE FACTOR. SO LOOKING FOR WARM                  
START TO SUNDAY WITH INCREASING POPS AFTN INTO EVENING AS SHALLOW               
TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSS REGION INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND               
MONDAY. INHERITED PACKAGE COVERS THIS WELL.                                     
MONDAY ONWARD DETAILS...GFS HINTING AT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVING                
ACROSS AREA WITH TROF AXIS AND MONSOON MOISTURE MAY CONT TO BE                  
INVOLVED...SO WILL CONT POPS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. DRYING                   
TREND GOING INTO TUESDAY REFLECTED IN INHERITED PACKAGE LOOKS                   
OKAY FOR NOW THOUGH MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY LINGER POPS EARLY                    
TUESDAY AS WE TRY TO NAIL TIMING DOWN BETTER. NORTHWEST FLOW THEN               
EXPECTED TUE INTO MID WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS ALONG                  
WEST COAST AND NW FLOW OVER SOUTHERN MONTANA. TUE SHOULD BE                     
COOLEST DAY OF WEEK WITH GRADUAL WARM UP INTO MID WEEK. ALWAYS                  
NEED TO BE WARY OF NORTHWEST FLOW AS SHORT WAVES CAN SNEAK UP IN                
THERE...AND MODELS NOT TERRIBLY CONSISTENT YET. SO CONFIDENCE IN                
WED THRU FRI A LITTLE SHAKY AT THIS TIME. TESAR                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY UNDER MAINLY CLEAR               
SKIES. ANOTHER COOL FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS                        
AFTERNOON ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20               
MPH. HOWEVER...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN                
DRY.  HOOLEY                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...                                                 
    TDY FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED                             
-------------------------------------------------------                         
BIL 095 061/097 065/094 059/092 061/086 059/082 057/089                         
    0/U 02/T    30/B    22/T    32/T    20/B    00/U                            
LVM 097 052/092 053/092 051/088 053/082 051/081 050/085                         
    0/U 02/T    30/B    23/T    32/T    20/U    00/U                            
HDN 096 061/099 064/096 059/094 060/088 059/089 057/091                         
    0/U 02/T    30/B    22/T    32/T    20/B    00/U                            
MLS 095 062/098 066/095 061/094 063/089 059/084 058/087                         
    0/U 02/T    20/B    12/T    32/T    10/B    00/U                            
4BQ 096 062/099 063/098 060/094 062/089 060/087 058/085                         
    0/U 02/T    20/B    12/T    33/T    20/B    00/U                            
BHK 092 055/094 061/093 059/091 061/086 058/081 057/082                         
    2/T 02/T    20/B    12/T    32/T    20/B    00/U                            
SHR 096 057/099 059/095 055/092 056/087 055/084 053/085                         
    0/U 02/T    30/B    24/T    32/T    30/B    00/U                            
&&                                                                              
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING TO FRIDAY                 
      EVENING FOR ZONES 28>42-56>58-63>68.                                      
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING TO FRIDAY                 
      EVENING FOR ZONE 98.                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   mt                                                           


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
944 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS WITH CLUSTER OF STORMS             
OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. EXPECT AMPLE MOISTURE AND             
INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE WITH LOW LEVEL FORCING THROUGH THE NIGHT               
TO HELP SUSTAIN CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA SHORTLY AFTER                
MIDNIGHT...DESPITE QUITE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS. THESE STORMS HAVE HAD            
A HISTORY OF PRODUCING BASEBALL SIZE HAIL OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH              
DAKOTA. NOT SO SURE THAT WILL HAPPEN OVER THE CWA...BUT SOME                    
LARGE HAIL IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS. THE                
LATEST RUC THOUGH INDICATES THAT CAPPING EFFECTS WILL STRENGTHEN INTO           
EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WITH TIME...AND EXPECT                      
ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN BY THEN.                                                   
&&                                                                              
DEE                                                                             
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
240 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005                                                      
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE TIMING OF PRECIP OVER THE NEXT                 
COUPLE OF DAYS AND RESULTANT MAX TEMPERATURES AND EXACTLY WHERE THE             
BOUNDARIES WILL SET UP.                                                         
IN THE SHORT TERM...12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED VERY SUBTLE                
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH 10M HEIGHT FALLS                
NOTED...ALONG WITH A 60KT SPEED MAX. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO             
CONVECTIVE INITIATION...MOSTLY LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA               
AHEAD OF ALONG A COLD FRONT EDGING SOUTHWARD. H70 TEMPERATURES                  
INDICATED WE WERE WELL CAPPED...THUS WE'LL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL            
TONIGHT FOR CONVECTION TO REALLY GET GOING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST            
NEBRASKA. WHATEVER MCS DEVELOPS WILL LIKELY SLIDE EAST SOUTHEAST AND            
MOVE INTO IOWA...AND COULD POSSIBLY LINGER ALONG AND EAST OF THE                
MISSOURI RIVER THURSDAY MORNING...IN SIMILAR FASHION TO WHAT                    
HAPPENED TODAY. NEVERTHELESS...THIS WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON                 
FORECAST HIGHS FOR THURSDAY...WITH POINTS NORTH OF I80 ON THE COOLER            
SIDE AND POINTS OFF TO THE SOUTH STILL VERY HOT WITH HIGHS NEAR 100             
AGAIN. ELEVATED DEWPOINTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HEAT INDICES ABOVE 105.            
OFFICIALLY...TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY...WE ALSO NEED NIGHTTIME LOWS             
AROUND 80 OR ABOVE.  THUS...WE'RE NOT EXPECTING TO MEET THOSE                   
CONDITIONS WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...THEREFORE WE'LL                  
CONTINUE TO MENTION HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE ZFP AND HIGHLIGHT THE              
IMPACTS IN THE HWO.                                                             
THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT SEEMS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE'RE                     
EXPECTING TONIGHT...WITH THE RING OF FIRE REDEVELOPING IN SIMILAR               
FASHION AS IT DOES TONIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS                  
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA WITH A SIGNIFICANT CAP EXPECTED FOR THE            
DAYLIGHT HOURS...BUT SHOULD SEE ANOTHER MCS DEVELOP INTO NORTHEAST              
NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT AND ROLL EAST SOUTHEAST TOWARD IOWA. THIS               
SECOND MCS PERHAPS DEVELOPS JUST A BIT FURTHER DEEPER INTO OUR CWFA             
THOUGHT. THIS                                                                   
WILL AGAIN DRIVE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO OUR CWA AND COULD POSE               
QUITE A CHALLENGE IN DEFINING TEMPERATURES. AGAIN AM EXPECTING                  
COOLER TEMPS ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES TO              
THE SOUTHWEST.                                                                  
SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS THE               
SURFACE LOW REDEVELOPS WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA.               
LOOKING FOR HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 100 FOR JUST ABOVE ALL AREAS WITH DRY             
CONDITIONS.  SUNDAY SHOULD BE QUITE SIMILAR...BUT PERHAPS JUST A BIT            
COOLER ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AS ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY BEGINS             
TO MOVE IN. MONDAY APPEARS TO BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...BUT MAYBE A                
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER BASED ON JUST A FEW MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED. WE               
MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY THROUGH               
SUNDAY AS NIGHTTIME LOWS DURING THAT TIME WILL LIKELY BE IN THE                 
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80.                                                           
LOOKS LIKE RELIEF IS IN SIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY FINALLY            
MAKES A DECENT PUSH INTO THE CWFA MONDAY NIGHT. THAT LOOKS LIKE OUR             
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION (BEYOND THE SYSTEMS THAT DEVELOP             
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT). THE FRONT PUSHES WELL SOUTH OF THE                 
REGION BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK INTO THE              
MID TO UPPER 80S...EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.                                  
&&                                                                              
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DEWALD                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ne                                                           


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV                                           
256 AM PDT THU JUL 21 2005                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA HAS ALLOWED                
MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO SWEEP INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE                
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST THE REST                 
OF THE WEEK...WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS              
AND SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FIVE TO TEN DEGREES LOWER FROM THE            
FIRST OF THE WEEK DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES.           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING.              
IN THE VERY SHORT TERM THIS MORNING I AM LOOKING A CLUSTER OF                   
PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS IN YAVAPAI COUNTY THAT WILL SHORTLY MOVE               
INTO MOHAVE COUNTY. RUC AND NAM DEPICT INVERTED TROUGH AND VORT MAX             
ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH                     
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM CLUSTER. MIGHT BE A BIT OVER DONE WITH               
THE QPF AND STRENGTH BUT STILL EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO PERSIST AS IT             
MOVES INTO MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR TO THE NORTH. HAVE UPPED POPS OVER            
MOHAVE AND CLARK COUNTIES THIS MORNING AS A RESULT. OTHERWISE STILL             
LOOK FOR CONTINUED CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER THE PRIMARILY SOUTHERN                
PORTIONS OF CWA THROUGH OUT THE SHORT TERM WITH DIURNAL MAXIMUMS IN             
THE AFTERNOONS. MODELS CONSISTENT AND IN AGREEMENT IN KEEPING                   
MONSOON FLOW OVER THE AREA. FORECAST CAPE AND PW LOOK FAVORABLE AS              
WELL. REMNANTS OF EMILY WILL COME IN TO PLAY ON SATURDAY AND SEND               
ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. CONCERN TO THINK ABOUT WHEN                
THIS OCCURS IN THE FLOODING POTENTIAL IN WHAT WILL BE VERY MOIST AIR.           
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...MORE MESSY WEATHER ON SUNDAY AS MOISTURE FROM THE                  
EMILY-DRIVEN SURGE SHOULD STILL BE IN PLACE. YESTERDAY...THE CONCERN            
WAS WHETHER OR NOT THE WESTERLIES WOULD GET FAR ENOUGH SOUTH EARLY              
NEXT WEEK TO START SCOURING OUT THE MOISTURE. TODAY...THE TREND IS              
LEANING MORE TOWARDS AN ANSWER OF NO...WITH THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO            
BEING THE RIDGE REBUILDING OVERHEAD AND TRAPPING ALL THE RESIDUAL               
MOISTURE UNDERNEATH. THUS...WE NOW HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE                      
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS ALL THE WAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A BIAS              
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWFA WHERE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY               
SHOULD BE GREATEST. NO CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE.            
POINT FORECASTS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON COVERAGE OF CLOUDS AND              
THUNDERSTORMS.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...SOME SHOWERS ALREADY UNDERWAY IN THE PEACH SPRINGS AND              
MORMON MESA CORRIDORS THIS MORNING...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS               
EXPECTED IN ALL APPROACH CORRIDORS AND NEAR KLAS FROM LATE MORNING              
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.NV...NONE.                                                                     
.AZ...NONE.                                                                     
.CA...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JACQUES/MORGAN                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   nv                                                           


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY                                             
1045 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2005                                                     
.UPDATE...WEAK TROUGH MOVING INTO WESTERN NY. RADAR SHOWS A FEW                 
WIDELY SCT SHWRS ACROSS PTNS OF SOUTHERN TIER AND SOUTHERN FINGER               
LKS AND ACTIVITY IS BECMG MORE SCT. WILL KEEP SLGT CHC OF ANOTHER               
SHWR INTO ERLY AFTN JUST FOR CATT/ALLEGANY COUNTIES. REST OF REGION             
MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS OR PTLY SUNNY FOR THIS AFTN.                              
TEMPS LOWERED JUST A TAD IN A FEW ZNS WITH WINDS BECMG WESTERLY                 
BEHIND BNDRY.                                                                   
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS BUT             
THE HEAT WILL NOT BE AS OPPRESSIVE AS THAT EXPERIENCED THROUGH LAST             
WEEKEND. READINGS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL                
RATHER THAN 10 TO 15...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB TO             
UNCOMFORTABLE LEVELS.                                                           
OUR UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL THEN FEATURE MORE PLEASANT CONDITIONS AS              
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH OUT OF EASTERN CANADA. THIS                 
BREAK FROM THE 'HEAT OF 2005' WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS TEMPS               
WILL TAKE A ROLLER COASTER RIDE BACK TO SULTRY LEVELS FOR THE FIRST             
HALF OF NEX WEEK.                                                               
PRECIPITATION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO COME            
BY...DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL FRONTAL SYSTEMS.                            
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                         
THE SUMMER OF 2005 HAS FEATURED PLENTY OF RECORD HEAT...BUT A                   
SERIOUS LACK OF ANY MCS ACTIVITY. THIS HAS ESPECIALLY BEEN THE CASE             
TO OUR WEST...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH A RARE 2005 MCS THIS                
MORNING.                                                                        
CONVECTION FIRED UP LAST EVENING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS               
DRAPED ACROSS THE UPPER MID WEST. AS OF 0630Z...THE CONVECTION WAS              
CENTERED OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE AND NORTHERN OHIO. CLOUD TOP TEMPS              
AND LTG ACTIVITY SHOW THAT THE ACTIVITY IS HOLDING TOGETHER...AND AS            
MENTIONED IN THE CHAT ROOM TO CTP/CLE...THE NAM AND RUC ARE DOING               
SURPRISINGLY WELL IN DEPICTING THIS.                                            
A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT IS HELPING TO SUPPORT THIS ACTIVITY WILL PASS             
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WHILE I DO BELIEVE THAT THE              
CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN TOWARDS DAYBREAK (CLIMATOLOGY)...I HAVE ADDED            
CHC POPS TO THE SRN TIER TO HANDLE THE LEFTOVER ACTIVITY. SLGT CHC              
WILL BE USED FOR THE IAG FRONTIER.                                              
OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL BECOME A LITTLE WARMER AND MORE HUMID THAN               
THE PAST TWO DAYS. H8 TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB TO AROUND +18C IN THE WEST             
AND +16C IN THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. AS A RESULT TEMPS                  
SHOULD EASILY CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S IN MOST AREAS WITH               
SOME 90 DEGREE READINGS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES                  
REGION.                                                                         
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL APPROACH THE REGION            
TONIGHT...THEN PASS THROUGH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL               
HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND VERY LITTLE JET ASSISTANCE...             
SO ONLY SLGT CHC POPS WILL BE USED TO COVER ANY TRW POTENTIAL.                  
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM ONTARIO ON FRIDAY                 
NIGHT...SO HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR ANY PCPN. THIS IS A BIG CHANGE FROM            
CONTINUITY...BUT IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE NAM AND TRUSTED GFS.                  
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START A SHORT LIVED PERIOD OF 'NORMAL'              
MID SUMMER WEATHER...WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPS CLOSE TO                 
SEASONAL NORMS FOR BOTH DAYS OF THE WEEKEND.                                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                        
THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW OF            
WARMER AIR OVERSPREADING THE AREA. SUNDAY NGT A WARM FRNT OVER THE              
LOWER LAKES MOVES NE AND BRINGS CHC SHWR/TSTM.                                  
UPPER ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH EXACT TIMING             
OF PASSING LOW CENTERS SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.  AT             
THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE A LOW WILL BE EXITING THE AREA MONDAY                   
MORNING; THEN ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND            
EXIT THE EASTERN LAKES WEDNESDAY, WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND                  
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES                   
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND NEAR NORMAL              
WEDNESDAY.                                                                      
LOOKING FURTHER OUT...A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE SHOULD BE IN THE                   
OFFING. THE LONG WAVE RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED MUCH OF THE COUNTRY              
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF MONTHS IS EXPECTED TO RE-ORIENT ITSELF SO               
THAT IT BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. AS A                 
RESULT...A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE GREAT              
LAKES REGION WITH TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO MORE TYPICAL LEVELS.                 
THE CHANGE WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE WAKE OF A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONTAL            
PASSAGE NEXT WEDNESDAY (JUL 27). GFS BASED ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD                
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SOLUTION...AND HAVE BEEN FOR THE PAST COUPLE                
RUNS. THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE INTO NEAR TO BELOW                  
NORMAL TEMPS FOR OUR REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF (THURS-SAT) OF NEXT             
WEEK.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
EXPECT ONLY SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD AS A WEAKENING TROF SLIDES ACROSS              
OUR REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH             
TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
LOOK FOR LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS TODAY...TURNING VARIABLE ON THE OPEN              
WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO. WINDS WILL TEND NORTHERLY FOLLOWING A                   
SECONDARY FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.                              
&&                                                                              
.CLIMO...                                                                       
WED MORNING'S MIN OF 65 AT BUF ENDED AN 8 DAY STRETCH OF MINIMUM                
TEMPS IN 70S. THIS IS LONGEST CONSEC RUN EVER AT AIRPORT (SINCE                 
1943). ALSO...FIRST 20 DAYS OF JULY AVERAGING 76.3...BUF'S WARMEST              
MONTH IN HISTORY IS 76.2 (JULY 1921). LAST TEN DAYS LOOK TO AVERAGE             
CLOSER TO NORMAL THOUGH.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.BUFFALO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                         
.NY...NONE.                                                                     
.MARINE...NONE.                                                                 
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...JJP                                                                    
SHORT TERM...RSH                                                                
LONG TERM...JJP/APB/RSH                                                         
AVIATION/MARINE/CLIMO...SFM                                                     
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
950 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM(TODAY - FRIDAY NIGHT)...                                            
UPDATE - BATCH OF WEAKENING -SHRA OVER STEUBEN CNTY AND THIS TREND              
WILL CONTINUE. GRIDS HAVE SLGT CHC FOR THIS AREA THIS MRNG WHICH                
LOOKS GOOD. THIS AFTN XPCT THE CLD BAND ASSCD WITH THE DYING -SHRA              
TO MOVE ESE ACRS THE FCST AREA WHILE DIMINISHING, SO THE PARTLY                 
SUNNY FCST ALSO LOOKS FINE. APPEARS TO BE TOO MUCH CIN TO OVERCOME              
FOR CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT THIS AFTN ACRS E/SE ZONES. LAMP DATA SUGGEST             
MAXES A FEW DEG COOLER THAN CRNTLY FCST, BUT CRNT FCST MAXES ARE                
SUPPORTED BY 925 MB TEMPS XPCTD FOR THIS AFTN. WE MAY TRIM MAXES BY             
A FEW DEG FOR TDA, OTRW LTL CHG TO CRNT FCST. PREV AFD BLO.                     
TODAY...WEAKENING H5 SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS CWA THIS MORNING.              
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A SCT/BKN MID DECK THROUGH LATE MORNING. BUF                
RADAR SHOWS CONVECTION ABOUT TO MOVE INTO WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. RUC            
INDICATES ACTIVITY MAY REACH CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER. WILL INCLUDE                
SLIGHT CHC HERE FOR THE MORNING HOURS. OVERALL A PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY            
DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.                                         
TONIGHT...ANOTHER MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH TEMPS A CATEGORY HIGHER.              
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...NAM/GFS FAIRLY CLOSE WITH TIMING OF COLD FRONT            
AS NAM HAS SPED UP FROPA WITH LATEST RUN. MOS POPS LOW BOTH                     
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT DUE MAINLY TO LACK OF MOISTURE AS DYNAMICS                  
FAIRLY STRONG FOR LATE JULY. WILL GO 20 POPS BOTH FRIDAY                        
AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING MOST AREAS AND WAIT FOR LATER RUNS TO                  
REFINE POP AS I PREFER NOT TO USE THE "HIDDEN POP".                             
RRM                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SAT - WEDNESDAY)...                                                 
SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY MIDDAY ON SATURDAY AS HIGH                  
PRESSURE BUILDS IN, BRINGING COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR INTO CENTRAL             
NY/NE PA. SUNDAY SHOULD SEE CONTINUED SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH LOW                 
HUMIDITY. HAZY...HOT...AND HUMID CONDITIONS MOVE BACK IN ON MONDAY              
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN             
THE ACTION ON TUESDAY...BUT ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH             
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, WITH A CHANCE OF                          
THUNDERSTORMS. THAT COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE THE BEGINNING OF A                   
PATTERN CHANGE...WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH BUILDING INTO THE ERN U.S.              
AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK. JVA.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (21/06Z - 22/06Z)...                                                  
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF                  
VALLEY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING (ELM) WHERE FOG MAY RESTRICT VSBY TO              
IFR/MVFR. THROUGH MIDDAY A SCT/BKN MID DECK WILL CROSS THE AREA THEN            
JUST SCT CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5K FT. OVERNIGHT WILL BE                  
MAINLY CLEAR WITH JUST SOME CIRRUS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT             
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND GENERALLY FROM THE WEST.   RRM                           
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.NY...NONE.                                                                     
.PA...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY                                             
855 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2005                                                      
.UPDATE...ISSUED AN EARLY UPDATE TO COVER SCT SHWR ACTIVITY ACROSS              
SOUTHERN TIER...MOVING INTO FINGER LKS REGION.                                  
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS BUT             
THE HEAT WILL NOT BE AS OPPRESSIVE AS THAT EXPERIENCED THROUGH LAST             
WEEKEND. READINGS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL                
RATHER THAN 10 TO 15...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB TO             
UNCOMFORTABLE LEVELS.                                                           
OUR UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL THEN FEATURE MORE PLEASANT CONDITIONS AS              
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH OUT OF EASTERN CANADA. THIS                 
BREAK FROM THE 'HEAT OF 2005' WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS TEMPS               
WILL TAKE A ROLLER COASTER RIDE BACK TO SULTRY LEVELS FOR THE FIRST             
HALF OF NEX WEEK.                                                               
PRECIPITATION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO COME            
BY...DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL FRONTAL SYSTEMS.                            
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                         
THE SUMMER OF 2005 HAS FEATURED PLENTY OF RECORD HEAT...BUT A                   
SERIOUS LACK OF ANY MCS ACTIVITY. THIS HAS ESPECIALLY BEEN THE CASE             
TO OUR WEST...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH A RARE 2005 MCS THIS                
MORNING.                                                                        
CONVECTION FIRED UP LAST EVENING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS               
DRAPED ACROSS THE UPPER MID WEST. AS OF 0630Z...THE CONVECTION WAS              
CENTERED OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE AND NORTHERN OHIO. CLOUD TOP TEMPS              
AND LTG ACTIVITY SHOW THAT THE ACTIVITY IS HOLDING TOGETHER...AND AS            
MENTIONED IN THE CHAT ROOM TO CTP/CLE...THE NAM AND RUC ARE DOING               
SURPRISINGLY WELL IN DEPICTING THIS.                                            
A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT IS HELPING TO SUPPORT THIS ACTIVITY WILL PASS             
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WHILE I DO BELIEVE THAT THE              
CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN TOWARDS DAYBREAK (CLIMATOLOGY)...I HAVE ADDED            
CHC POPS TO THE SRN TIER TO HANDLE THE LEFTOVER ACTIVITY. SLGT CHC              
WILL BE USED FOR THE IAG FRONTIER.                                              
OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL BECOME A LITTLE WARMER AND MORE HUMID THAN               
THE PAST TWO DAYS. H8 TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB TO AROUND +18C IN THE WEST             
AND +16C IN THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. AS A RESULT TEMPS                  
SHOULD EASILY CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S IN MOST AREAS WITH               
SOME 90 DEGREE READINGS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES                  
REGION.                                                                         
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL APPROACH THE REGION            
TONIGHT...THEN PASS THROUGH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL               
HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND VERY LITTLE JET ASSISTANCE...             
SO ONLY SLGT CHC POPS WILL BE USED TO COVER ANY TRW POTENTIAL.                  
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM ONTARIO ON FRIDAY                 
NIGHT...SO HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR ANY PCPN. THIS IS A BIG CHANGE FROM            
CONTINUITY...BUT IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE NAM AND TRUSTED GFS.                  
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START A SHORT LIVED PERIOD OF 'NORMAL'              
MID SUMMER WEATHER...WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPS CLOSE TO                 
SEASONAL NORMS FOR BOTH DAYS OF THE WEEKEND.                                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                        
THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW OF            
WARMER AIR OVERSPREADING THE AREA. SUNDAY NGT A WARM FRNT OVER THE              
LOWER LAKES MOVES NE AND BRINGS CHC SHWR/TSTM.                                  
UPPER ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH EXACT TIMING             
OF PASSING LOW CENTERS SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.  AT             
THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE A LOW WILL BE EXITING THE AREA MONDAY                   
MORNING; THEN ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND            
EXIT THE EASTERN LAKES WEDNESDAY, WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND                  
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES                   
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND NEAR NORMAL              
WEDNESDAY.                                                                      
LOOKING FURTHER OUT...A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE SHOULD BE IN THE                   
OFFING. THE LONG WAVE RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED MUCH OF THE COUNTRY              
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF MONTHS IS EXPECTED TO RE-ORIENT ITSELF SO               
THAT IT BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. AS A                 
RESULT...A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE GREAT              
LAKES REGION WITH TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO MORE TYPICAL LEVELS.                 
THE CHANGE WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE WAKE OF A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONTAL            
PASSAGE NEXT WEDNESDAY (JUL 27). GFS BASED ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD                
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SOLUTION...AND HAVE BEEN FOR THE PAST COUPLE                
RUNS. THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE INTO NEAR TO BELOW                  
NORMAL TEMPS FOR OUR REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF (THURS-SAT) OF NEXT             
WEEK.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
EXPECT ONLY SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD AS A WEAKENING TROF SLIDES ACROSS              
OUR REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH             
TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
LOOK FOR LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS TODAY...TURNING VARIABLE ON THE OPEN              
WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO. WINDS WILL TEND NORTHERLY FOLLOWING A                   
SECONDARY FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.                              
&&                                                                              
.CLIMO...                                                                       
WED MORNING'S MIN OF 65 AT BUF ENDED AN 8 DAY STRETCH OF MINIMUM                
TEMPS IN 70S. THIS IS LONGEST CONSEC RUN EVER AT AIRPORT (SINCE                 
1943). ALSO...FIRST 20 DAYS OF JULY AVERAGING 76.3...BUF'S WARMEST              
MONTH IN HISTORY IS 76.2 (JULY 1921). LAST TEN DAYS LOOK TO AVERAGE             
CLOSER TO NORMAL THOUGH.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.BUFFALO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                         
.NY...NONE.                                                                     
.MARINE...NONE.                                                                 
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...JJP                                                                    
SHORT TERM...RSH                                                                
LONG TERM...JJP/APB/RSH                                                         
AVIATION/MARINE/CLIMO...SFM                                                     
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED TO ADD TO LONG TERM DISCUSSION               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY                                             
500 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2005                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS BUT             
THE HEAT WILL NOT BE AS OPPRESSIVE AS THAT EXPERIENCED THROUGH LAST             
WEEKEND. READINGS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL                
RATHER THAN 10 TO 15...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB TO             
UNCOMFORTABLE LEVELS.                                                           
OUR UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL THEN FEATURE MORE PLEASANT CONDITIONS AS              
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH OUT OF EASTERN CANADA. THIS                 
BREAK FROM THE 'HEAT OF 2005' WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS TEMPS               
WILL TAKE A ROLLER COASTER RIDE BACK TO SULTRY LEVELS FOR THE FIRST             
HALF OF NEX WEEK.                                                               
PRECIPITATION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO COME            
BY...DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL FRONTAL SYSTEMS.                            
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                         
THE SUMMER OF 2005 HAS FEATURED PLENTY OF RECORD HEAT...BUT A                   
SERIOUS LACK OF ANY MCS ACTIVITY. THIS HAS ESPECIALLY BEEN THE CASE             
TO OUR WEST...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH A RARE 2005 MCS THIS                
MORNING.                                                                        
CONVECTION FIRED UP LAST EVENING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS               
DRAPED ACROSS THE UPPER MID WEST. AS OF 0630Z...THE CONVECTION WAS              
CENTERED OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE AND NORTHERN OHIO. CLOUD TOP TEMPS              
AND LTG ACTIVITY SHOW THAT THE ACTIVITY IS HOLDING TOGETHER...AND AS            
MENTIONED IN THE CHAT ROOM TO CTP/CLE...THE NAM AND RUC ARE DOING               
SURPRISINGLY WELL IN DEPICTING THIS.                                            
A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT IS HELPING TO SUPPORT THIS ACTIVITY WILL PASS             
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WHILE I DO BELIEVE THAT THE              
CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN TOWARDS DAYBREAK (CLIMATOLOGY)...I HAVE ADDED            
CHC POPS TO THE SRN TIER TO HANDLE THE LEFTOVER ACTIVITY. SLGT CHC              
WILL BE USED FOR THE IAG FRONTIER.                                              
OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL BECOME A LITTLE WARMER AND MORE HUMID THAN               
THE PAST TWO DAYS. H8 TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB TO AROUND +18C IN THE WEST             
AND +16C IN THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. AS A RESULT TEMPS                  
SHOULD EASILY CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S IN MOST AREAS WITH               
SOME 90 DEGREE READINGS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES                  
REGION.                                                                         
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL APPROACH THE REGION            
TONIGHT...THEN PASS THROUGH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL               
HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND VERY LITTLE JET ASSISTANCE...             
SO ONLY SLGT CHC POPS WILL BE USED TO COVER ANY TRW POTENTIAL.                  
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM ONTARIO ON FRIDAY                 
NIGHT...SO HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR ANY PCPN. THIS IS A BIG CHANGE FROM            
CONTINUITY...BUT IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE NAM AND TRUSTED GFS.                  
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START A SHORT LIVED PERIOD OF 'NORMAL'              
MID SUMMER WEATHER...WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPS CLOSE TO                 
SEASONAL NORMS FOR BOTH DAYS OF THE WEEKEND.                                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                        
THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW OF            
WARMER AIR OVERSPREADING THE AREA. SUNDAY NGT A WARM FRNT OVER THE              
LOWER LAKES MOVES NE AND BRINGS CHC SHWR/TSTM.                                  
UPPER ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH EXACT TIMING             
OF PASSING LOW CENTERS SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.  AT             
THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE A LOW WILL BE EXITING THE AREA MONDAY                   
MORNING; THEN ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND            
EXIT THE EASTERN LAKES WEDNESDAY, WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND                  
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES                   
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND NEAR NORMAL              
WEDNESDAY.                                                                      
LOOKING FURTHER OUT...A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE SHOULD BE IN THE                   
OFFING. THE LONG WAVE RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED MUCH OF THE COUNTRY              
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF MONTHS IS EXPECTED TO RE-ORIENT ITSELF SO               
THAT IT BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. AS A                 
RESULT...A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE GREAT              
LAKES REGION WITH TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO MORE TYPICAL LEVELS.                 
THE CHANGE WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE WAKE OF A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONTAL            
PASSAGE NEXT WEDNESDAY (JUL 27). GFS BASED ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD                
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SOLUTION...AND HAVE BEEN FOR THE PAST COUPLE                
RUNS. THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE INTO NEAR TO BELOW                  
NORMAL TEMPS FOR OUR REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF (THURS-SAT) OF NEXT             
WEEK.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
EXPECT ONLY SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD AS A WEAKENING TROF SLIDES ACROSS              
OUR REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH             
TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
LOOK FOR LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS TODAY...TURNING VARIABLE ON THE OPEN              
WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO. WINDS WILL TEND NORTHERLY FOLLOWING A                   
SECONDARY FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.                              
&&                                                                              
.CLIMO...                                                                       
WED MORNING'S MIN OF 65 AT BUF ENDED AN 8 DAY STRETCH OF MINIMUM                
TEMPS IN 70S. THIS IS LONGEST CONSEC RUN EVER AT AIRPORT (SINCE                 
1943). ALSO...FIRST 20 DAYS OF JULY AVERAGING 76.3...BUF'S WARMEST              
MONTH IN HISTORY IS 76.2 (JULY 1921). LAST TEN DAYS LOOK TO AVERAGE             
CLOSER TO NORMAL THOUGH.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.BUFFALO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                         
.NY...NONE.                                                                     
.MARINE...NONE.                                                                 
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...RSH                                                                
LONG TERM...JJP/APB/RSH                                                         
AVIATION/MARINE/CLIMO...SFM                                                     
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
408 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM(TODAY - FRIDAY NIGHT)...                                            
TODAY...WEAKENING H5 SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS CWA THIS MORNING.              
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A SCT/BKN MID DECK THROUGH LATE MORNING. BUF                
RADAR SHOWS CONVECTION ABOUT TO MOVE INTO WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. RUC            
INDICATES ACTIVITY MAY REACH CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER. WILL INCLUDE                
SLIGHT CHC HERE FOR THE MORNING HOURS. OVERALL A PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY            
DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.                                         
TONIGHT...ANOTHER MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH TEMPS A CATEGORY HIGHER.              
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...NAM/GFS FAIRLY CLOSE WITH TIMING OF COLD FRONT            
AS NAM HAS SPED UP FROPA WITH LATEST RUN. MOS POPS LOW BOTH                     
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT DUE MAINLY TO LACK OF MOISTURE AS DYNAMICS                  
FAIRLY STRONG FOR LATE JULY. WILL GO 20 POPS BOTH FRIDAY                        
AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING MOST AREAS AND WAIT FOR LATER RUNS TO                  
REFINE POP AS I PREFER NOT TO USE THE "HIDDEN POP".                             
RRM                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SAT - WEDNESDAY)...                                                 
SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY MIDDAY ON SATURDAY AS HIGH                  
PRESSURE BUILDS IN, BRINGING COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR INTO CENTRAL             
NY/NE PA. SUNDAY SHOULD SEE CONTINUED SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH LOW                 
HUMIDITY. HAZY...HOT...AND HUMID CONDITIONS MOVE BACK IN ON MONDAY              
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN             
THE ACTION ON TUESDAY...BUT ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH             
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, WITH A CHANCE OF                          
THUNDERSTORMS. THAT COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE THE BEGINNING OF A                   
PATTERN CHANGE...WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH BUILDING INTO THE ERN U.S.              
AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK. JVA.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (21/06Z - 22/06Z)...                                                  
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF                  
VALLEY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING (ELM) WHERE FOG MAY RESTRICT VSBY TO              
IFR/MVFR. THROUGH MIDDAY A SCT/BKN MID DECK WILL CROSS THE AREA THEN            
JUST SCT CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5K FT. OVERNIGHT WILL BE                  
MAINLY CLEAR WITH JUST SOME CIRRUS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT             
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND GENERALLY FROM THE WEST.   RRM                           
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.NY...NONE.                                                                     
.PA...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY                                             
245 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2005                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS BUT             
THE HEAT WILL NOT BE AS OPPRESSIVE AS THAT EXPERIENCED THROUGH LAST             
WEEKEND. READINGS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL                
RATHER THAN 10 TO 15...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB TO             
UNCOMFORTABLE LEVELS.                                                           
OUR UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL THEN FEATURE MORE PLEASANT CONDITIONS AS              
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH OUT OF EASTERN CANADA. THIS                 
BREAK FROM THE 'HEAT OF 2005' WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS TEMPS               
WILL TAKE A ROLLER COASTER RIDE BACK TO SULTRY LEVELS FOR THE FIRST             
HALF OF NEX WEEK.                                                               
PRECIPITATION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO COME            
BY...DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL FRONTAL SYSTEMS.                            
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                         
THE SUMMER OF 2005 HAS FEATURED PLENTY OF RECORD HEAT...BUT A                   
SERIOUS LACK OF ANY MCS ACTIVITY. THIS HAS ESPECIALLY BEEN THE CASE             
TO OUR WEST...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH A RARE 2005 MCS THIS                
MORNING.                                                                        
CONVECTION FIRED UP LAST EVENING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS               
DRAPED ACROSS THE UPPER MID WEST. AS OF 0630Z...THE CONVECTION WAS              
CENTERED OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE AND NORTHERN OHIO. CLOUD TOP TEMPS              
AND LTG ACTIVITY SHOW THAT THE ACTIVITY IS HOLDING TOGETHER...AND AS            
MENTIONED IN THE CHAT ROOM TO CTP/CLE...THE NAM AND RUC ARE DOING               
SURPRISINGLY WELL IN DEPICTING THIS.                                            
A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT IS HELPING TO SUPPORT THIS ACTIVITY WILL PASS             
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WHILE I DO BELIEVE THAT THE              
CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN TOWARDS DAYBREAK (CLIMATOLOGY)...I HAVE ADDED            
CHC POPS TO THE SRN TIER TO HANDLE THE LEFTOVER ACTIVITY. SLGT CHC              
WILL BE USED FOR THE IAG FRONTIER.                                              
OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL BECOME A LITTLE WARMER AND MORE HUMID THAN               
THE PAST TWO DAYS. H8 TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB TO AROUND +18C IN THE WEST             
AND +16C IN THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. AS A RESULT TEMPS                  
SHOULD EASILY CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S IN MOST AREAS WITH               
SOME 90 DEGREE READINGS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES                  
REGION.                                                                         
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL APPROACH THE REGION            
TONIGHT...THEN PASS THROUGH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL               
HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND VERY LITTLE JET ASSISTANCE...             
SO ONLY SLGT CHC POPS WILL BE USED TO COVER ANY TRW POTENTIAL.                  
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM ONTARIO ON FRIDAY                 
NIGHT...SO HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR ANY PCPN. THIS IS A BIG CHANGE FROM            
CONTINUITY...BUT IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE NAM AND TRUSTED GFS.                  
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START A SHORT LIVED PERIOD OF 'NORMAL'              
MID SUMMER WEATHER...WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPS CLOSE TO                 
SEASONAL NORMS FOR BOTH DAYS OF THE WEEKEND.                                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                        
THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW OF            
WARMER AIR OVERSPREADING THE AREA. SUNDAY NGT A WARM FRNT OVER THE              
LOWER LAKES MOVES NE AND BRINGS CHC SHWR/TSTM.                                  
UPPER ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH EXACT TIMING             
OF PASSING LOW CENTERS SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.  AT             
THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE A LOW WILL BE EXITING THE AREA MONDAY                   
MORNING; THEN ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND            
EXIT THE EASTERN LAKES WEDNESDAY, WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND                  
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES                   
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND NEAR NORMAL              
WEDNESDAY.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
EXPECT ONLY SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD AS A WEAKENING TROF SLIDES ACROSS              
OUR REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH             
TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
LOOK FOR LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS TODAY...TURNING VARIABLE ON THE OPEN              
WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO. WINDS WILL TEND NORTHERLY FOLLOWING A                   
SECONDARY FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.                              
&&                                                                              
.CLIMO...                                                                       
WED MORNING'S MIN OF 65 AT BUF ENDED AN 8 DAY STRETCH OF MINIMUM                
TEMPS IN 70S. THIS IS LONGEST CONSEC RUN EVER AT AIRPORT (SINCE                 
1943). ALSO...FIRST 20 DAYS OF JULY AVERAGING 76.3...BUF'S WARMEST              
MONTH IN HISTORY IS 76.2 (JULY 1921). LAST TEN DAYS LOOK TO AVERAGE             
CLOSER TO NORMAL THOUGH.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.BUFFALO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                         
.NY...NONE.                                                                     
.MARINE...NONE.                                                                 
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...RSH                                                                
LONG TERM...JJP/APB                                                             
AVIATION/MARINE/CLIMO...SFM                                                     
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
1004 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2005                                                     
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED GREATLY DURING THE EVENING.                
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW CHANCE POPS              
WILL BE DROPPED AFTER MIDNIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES ANTICIPATED.                   
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA)                       
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                        
ISOLD CONVECTION REMAINS PACKED ACROSS THE RIDGES AND OVER THE SE               
WITH LIMITED COVERAGE OVER THE CWA ATTM IN WAKE OF WORKED OVER ATMOS            
FROM TUE TSRA. GIVEN BEST INSTAB OVER THE SE AND ONLY WEAK MCON PLAN            
TO HAVE POP GRADIENT FROM LOW CHC NW TO 40ISH SE FOR A COUPLE HOURS             
THIS EVENING. RUC THEN SHOWS LACK OF MUCH PRECIP OTHER THAN ISOLD               
SHRA OVERNGT SO WILL CONT WITH LITTLE CHC AFTER MIDNGT. WILL THROW              
IN SOME PATCHY FOG MAINLY W PER RH AND DECENT FOG STAB VALUES OTRW              
PC WARM/HUMID WITH LOWS LOW/MID 70S. LINGERING LEE TROF APPEARS TO              
BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR AT LEAST SCTD CONVECTION THU AS WEAK MOISTURE             
ADVECTION RETURNS ESPCLY SRN/SW ZONES. THIS IN COMBO WITH EVEN                  
HIGHER PWATS...DECENT CAPE AND LIGHT S/SW FLOW SUPPORTS AT LEAST                
WDLY SCTD TSRA...SO CHCY POPS ESPCLY E ALONG LEE TROF CONVERGENCE.              
HIGHS GNRLY LOW/MID 90S WHICH MAY AGAIN PUSH INDICES CLOSE TO ADVSRY            
LEVELS WELL SE OF THE TRIAD.                                                    
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                 
TSRA MAY LINGER INTO THU EVENING ALTHO LOOKS LIKE DIURNAL NATURE                
WILL CUT OFF COVERAGE OVERNGT PER DRIER NAM/CANADIAN SOLNS. WILL UP             
CHCS SOME IN THE EVENING AND GO WITH LOW END CHC OVRNGT TO MATCH                
BETTER...OTRW 30-40 POP. MODELS SHARPEN 5H TROF A BIT FRI WITH THE              
GFS INDICATING ENHANCED LIFT ESPCLY ERN HALF FRI AFTN UNDER HIGH                
CAPES AND PWATS. SINCE OTHER GUIDANCE WEAKER...WILL ONLY RAISE POPS             
A NOTCH...GNRLY BELOW GFS VALUES SINCE LIKELY OVERDONE AT THIS                  
POINT. TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER BUT STILL MAY BE CLOSE TO NPW LEVELS SE            
IF PRECIP/CLOUDS END UP LESS. SHRA LINGERS INTO FRI EVENING BEFORE              
APCH OF NEXT BACKDOOR COLD FRONT EDGES DEEP RH S OF THE AREA SAT                
MORNING. IN FACT APPEARS COULD END UP IN BETWEEN THE TWO BY SAT AFTN            
WITH WEAK COMPRESSION BOOSTING TEMPS A CAT HIGHER THAN MOS PENDING              
CLOUDS. THUS PLAN TO CONFINE ANY SLGT CHC POPS TO MAINLY THE                    
SANDHILLS/COASTAL PLAINS FOR NOW. OTRW PLAN TO BOOST TEMPS AGAIN                
WITH SOME UPR 90S PSBL SE THIRD SAT AFTN.                                       
WEAK COOL FRONT WILL BASICALLY WASH OUT OVER OR JUST N OF THE REGION            
SAT NGT INTO SUNDAY WHILE MAJORITY OF DEEP RH LIKELY SHIFTS TO THE S            
UNDER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE MID ATLC. MAY STILL HAVE SOME                   
LINGERING CONVECTIVE CHCS ESPCLY SRN ZONES SAT EVENING...OTRW WILL              
TAPER POPS OFF SAT NGT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY AS DEEPER LOW              
LEVEL E/NE FLOW DEVELOPS. CENTRAL STATES HEAT DOME/RIDGE STARTS TO              
BUILD E LATER SUNDAY THRU TUE BEFORE RIDGING FLATTENS WED AHEAD OF              
NEXT APCHG S/W TROF FROM THE NW. NW FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY INTO MON ON               
THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LEAVE A FAINT WEAKNESS FOR                
PSBL MCS FEATURES TO DIVE SE TOWARD THE AREA THRU MONDAY NGT. SINCE             
IFFY AS TO SRN EXTENT...WILL TIME SLGT CHC TSRA LATE SUNDAY AND                 
AGAIN DURING MON AS CAP MAY BE WEAKER BY THEN. OTRW INCRSG HEAT FOR             
EARLY WEEK WITH SOME UPR 90S/NR 100 PSBL CENTRAL/SRN TIER MON-TUE               
WHEN 85H VALUES PUSH 22-24C UNDER WEAK W/SW FLOW. COLD FRONT SHOULD             
APPROACH LATE WED BUT LIKELY SLOWER THAN GFS GIVEN STRENGTH OF RIDGE            
AND RESIDUAL HEATING. WILL INCLUDE A CHC POP WED AFTN FOR PREFRONTAL            
RH WITH TEMPS SLGHTLY COOLER ESPCLY TRIAD ZONES.                                
AVIATION...                                                                     
ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS FROM              
MARION NC TO STUART VA THIS AFTERNOON. SECOND AREA DEVELOPING NEAR              
SEA BREEZE FRONT. LAPS INDICATED SOME SFC CONVERGENCE AT 17Z OVER               
THE SANDHILLS. ISOLD TO SCT MVFR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION               
EXPECTED AFT 20Z. AREAS OF FOG AND HAZE FORMING AGAIN OVERNIGHT                 
GENERALLY AFT 09Z WITH WET GROUND AND LIGHT WINDS. ADDITIONAL                   
DIURNAL MVFR CONVECTION THURSDAY.                                               
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...RHJ                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
1050 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2005                                                     
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR I-71 CORRIDOR WITH                 
MESO HIGH BACK OVER INDIANA/NW OHIO. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES                
SKIES MIXING OUT EXCEPT FOR NEAR OUTFLOW WHERE ATTM CLOUDS (MID                 
LEVEL CLOUDS) ARE ENHANCING AS IT SLIDES SOUTH. SATELLITE LOOP ALSO             
HINTS A WAVE TO THE SW OF CINCINNATI                                            
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES TO BUMP TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO AND               
TO LOWER POPS WITH A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE. CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS         
MORNING HAS DIED OUT. NAM AND RUC SHOWING SINKING MOTION FOR MUCH               
OF THE DAY WITH SOME LIFT TO THE SW AND NE OF CWA WITH WEAK WAVES               
IN THE NW FLOW. BOTH MODELS SHOWING BETTER THAN 4000 J/KG OVER                  
PORTIONS OF THE WEST OR SOUTHERN PORTION OF CWA THIS AFT/EVE. THE               
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO IS THE RUC SHOWS A CAP FOR MUCH OF THE               
DAY. WITH IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY WILL LEAVE IN 30 POPS WITH MESO                
HIGH...GENERAL SYNOPTIC SINKING MOTION AND CAP AS LIMITING FACTORS.             
TIPTON                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 615 AM EDT JUL 21 2005)                                                 
AVIATION (12Z-12Z)...                                                           
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS OVER NRN OH AND CNTRL IN HAVE DEVELOPED IN                
RESPONSE TO FAVORABLE LO LVL JET AND CONVERGENCE AHD OF MID LVL S/W.            
THIS S/W TO PIVOT E THRU OH EARLY TDA AND WEAKEN. EXPECT STORMS TO              
TRACK ACRS TAF SITES AND WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO A MORE STABLE LESS            
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT EARLY TDA. MINOR S/W RIDGE IN THE WAKE OF                 
THIS EARLY S/W TDA SHUD PROVIDE A TEMPORARY DRY PERIOD. AMS TO                  
DESTABALIZE DURG THE AFTN WITH SBCAPES EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 4000               
J/KG TDA AND ALTHO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS LACKING HAVE A CONTD MENT             
OF TSTMS. UPPER LEVEL FLO TO TURN A LTL MORE NWRLY TONIGHT WITH NEXT            
SIGNIFICANT S/W TO AFFECT THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. WL MENT TSTMS           
LATE IN THE WESTERN TAF SITES IN THE 08Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME.                      
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...                                      
UPPER AIR PATTERN HAS A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. POTENT SHORT WAVES TODAY            
AND FRIDAY WILL PROVIDE MID LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION.                       
SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH             
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE FRONT. FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH                
ACROSS ILN CWA TO SOUTHERN KENTUCKY BY FRIDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY             
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR.                                                    
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON RADAR ABOUT TO SPREAD INTO CENTRAL              
OHIO...AM INCREASING TODAY'S POPS TO 50% NORTH OF I-70...AND                    
INCREASING TO 40% SOUTH OF I-70 BY MID AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A               
SHORT LULL TONIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SHORT WAVE COMES INTO PLAY BY 12Z            
FRIDAY. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TONIGHT...THEN 30% ON FRIDAY.              
CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT ON FRIDAY NIGHT.                                        
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...THOUGH                 
STORMS HAVE BEEN WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE AWAY FROM THE MORE UNSTABLE             
AIRMASS OVER ILLINOIS AND INDIANA.                                              
LOWERED TEMPS A BIT ON FRIDAY...THOUGH NOT AS LOW AS ETA GUIDANCE.              
LOWERED FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL WITH SOME CLEARING LIKELY.                         
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                         
UPPER PATTERN IS TRANSITIONING TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH STRONG                
UPPER HIGH BUILDING INTO OUR SOUTH.  THIS PUTS THE FORECAST AREA                
INTO A VERY WARM AND STICKY PATTERN WITH PERIODIC SHOTS OF STRONG               
THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE              
PERIOD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NOT FALLING BELOW 70 AT TIMES. THE                   
STICKIEST AND HOTTEST DAYS LOOK LIKE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS 500                  
HEIGHTS GO ABOVE 590 DM.  CONVECTION WILL BE HARD TO TIME AS IT WILL            
BE BOTH NOCTURNAL AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF             
THE WEAK PERTURBATIONS WORKING DOWN IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.                  
TIPTON                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO                                         
1052 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2005                                                     
.SHORT TERM UPDATE (TONIGHT)...                                                 
ONLY UPDATE MADE TO FORECAST WAS TO REWORD CLOUD COVER.  OTHERWISE              
ALL OTHER ELEMENTS ON TRACK.  FIRST COMPLEX OF TS THAT TRAVELED                 
ACROSS MI AND NORTHERN IN DIED AT THE CWA BORDER.  NEW CONVECTION               
HAS DEVELOPED AGAIN OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MI AND NORTHERN IN.  MUCH OF            
THE CONVECTION IN ILL IS POSITIONED ALONG A WARM FRONT...WITH A COLD            
FRONT STILL OFF TO THE WEST ACROSS WESTERN WI TO NW IA.  STILL HAVE             
UPPER SHORTWAVE TO PASS THROUGH SUPPORTING THE ONGOING CONVECTION               
AND SHORT TERM MODELS STILL PAINTING QPF OVERNIGHT.  BEST CHCS STILL            
ARE TO THE WEST THOUGH WITH LIKELY POPS...AND JUST A CHC EAST                   
TOWARDS MORNING.  DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN ON THE RISE...WITH WESTERN OH             
UP AROUND 70 ONCE AGAIN.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION(00Z-00Z)...                                                           
FIRST MCS MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA IS DYING OUT RAPIDLY AS IT              
ENCOUNTERS MORE STABLE AIR MASS TO THE EAST. IF IT REACHES CLE...IT             
SHOULD BE ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS. WL NEED TO INCLUDE A SHORT PD OF TSRA             
AT TOL/FDY EARLY TO ACCT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE...NAM                    
SUGGESTS ANOTHER COMPLEX WL DEVELOP OVER IL/NRN IN AND MOVE TOWARD              
THE WRN AREA AFTER 06Z AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WMFNT JUST S OF THE               
AREA. WITH THE NAM SHOWING AN INCREASING LLJ AND RUC MLCAPE VALUES              
RISING OVERNIGHT THINK THIS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. WL PUT A TEMPO               
-TSRA GRP BTWN 07-11Z AT TOL AND FDY. OTHERWISE GENERALLY MVFR FOR              
ALL SITES.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY)...                                          
ATTM THE LARGE AREA OF LTNG AND TSTMS SHOULD SLIDE SE OF AREA WHERE             
CAPES HIGHEST AND AMS MOST UNSTABLE. HOWEVER ANOTHER S/WV AND CDFNT             
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA TNGT AND THURSDAY AM. ATTM BASED ON TIMG            
OF FROPA WITH THE MODELS THE BEST CHANCES OF PCPN WILL BE TONIGHT.              
THE BOUNDARY MAY GET TOO FAR SOUTH ON THURSDAY FOR MUCH ACTIVITY.               
HOWEVER...SINCE MODELS KEEP SOME QPF WILL CONT 30 POP. SOME PCPN                
COULD BE AROUND THU NIGHT AS BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE BACK NORTH.                 
THREAT IS TOUGH FRI AND FRI NGT AS ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY TRIES TO               
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH. FRI COULD BE WARM AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.              
OTHERWISE GUID OK.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                
TIMING OF PCPN VERY TOUGH. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH A FRONT FOR              
TUE NIGHT. OTHER THAN THAT WITH THE AMS MOIST AND UNSTABLE THERE                
WILL BE A THREAT OF PCPN. GUID OK. WITH PLENTY OF WARM TEMPS AT 850             
MB WE HAVE TO WATCH HIGHS.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.OH...NONE.                                                                     
.PA...NONE.                                                                     
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM UPDATE...OUDEMAN                                                     
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA                                                           
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA                                                            
AVIATION...MRD                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO                                         
735 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2005                                                      
.AVIATION(00Z-00Z)...                                                           
FIRST MCS MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA IS DYING OUT RAPIDLY AS IT              
ENCOUNTERS MORE STABLE AIR MASS TO THE EAST. IF IT REACHES CLE...IT             
SHOULD BE ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS. WL NEED TO INCLUDE A SHORT PD OF TSRA             
AT TOL/FDY EARLY TO ACCT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE...NAM                    
SUGGESTS ANOTHER COMPLEX WL DEVELOP OVER IL/NRN IN AND MOVE TOWARD              
THE WRN AREA AFTER 06Z AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WMFNT JUST S OF THE               
AREA. WITH THE NAM SHOWING AN INCREASING LLJ AND RUC MLCAPE VALUES              
RISING OVERNIGHT THINK THIS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. WL PUT A TEMPO               
-TSRA GRP BTWN 07-11Z AT TOL AND FDY. OTHERWISE GENERALLY MVFR FOR              
ALL SITES.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY)...                                          
ATTM THE LARGE AREA OF LTNG AND TSTMS SHOULD SLIDE SE OF AREA WHERE             
CAPES HIGHEST AND AMS MOST UNSTABLE. HOWEVER ANOTHER S/WV AND CDFNT             
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA TNGT AND THURSDAY AM. ATTM BASED ON TIMG            
OF FROPA WITH THE MODELS THE BEST CHANCES OF PCPN WILL BE TONIGHT.              
THE BOUNDARY MAY GET TOO FAR SOUTH ON THURSDAY FOR MUCH ACTIVITY.               
HOWEVER...SINCE MODELS KEEP SOME QPF WILL CONT 30 POP. SOME PCPN                
COULD BE AROUND THU NIGHT AS BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE BACK NORTH.                 
THREAT IS TOUGH FRI AND FRI NGT AS ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY TRIES TO               
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH. FRI COULD BE WARM AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.              
OTHERWISE GUID OK.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                
TIMING OF PCPN VERY TOUGH. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH A FRONT FOR              
TUE NIGHT. OTHER THAN THAT WITH THE AMS MOIST AND UNSTABLE THERE                
WILL BE A THREAT OF PCPN. GUID OK. WITH PLENTY OF WARM TEMPS AT 850             
MB WE HAVE TO WATCH HIGHS.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.OH...NONE.                                                                     
.PA...NONE.                                                                     
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA                                                           
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA                                                            
AVIATION...MRD                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                       
1125 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2005                                                     
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
WEAK MCV FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED               
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN PA THIS MORNING. RUC AND                 
ETA BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY CAP...IN CONTRAST TO                
WHAT WAS SHOWN YESTERDAY. THUS...GIVEN THE MCV AS A TRIGGER AND                 
INCREASING MOISTURE (LAYER PWS INCREASING TO 1.5"+) WITH MOISTURE               
SURGE OVER WESTERN PA...WILL EXPAND POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND                  
INCLUDE SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN                    
SECTIONS EXTENDING INTO THE LOWER SUSQ. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE AT                 
THIS TIME GIVEN WEAK SHEAR PROFILE...BUT GIVEN AVAILABLE MOISTURE               
AND EASTWARD PROPOGATION AT TIME OF MAX HEATING...WILL OBVIOUSLY                
NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY PULSING. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.            
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 238 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...                                      
NO SHORTAGE OF WORRIES IN THE NEAR TERM...AS WHAT WAS GOING TO BE A             
PRETTY NICE/EASY WX DAY FOR CENTRAL PA HAS BEEN COMPLICATED BY THE              
APPROACH OF AN MCS THAT FORMED LAST EVENING OVER LWR MI AND NRN IN.             
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDER ARE NOW ALL THE WAY INTO NRN OH AND COMING              
ON-SHORE FROM LK ERIE AS WE SPEAK. THE UPPER FLOW AND GOOD MOISTURE             
FAVOR THIS GUY DROPPING TO THE SE THRU 12Z...BUT IT MAY BRUSH THE               
WRN FRINGES OF THE CWA BEFORE THAT.  WILL ALLOW FOR THIS BY ADDING              
CHC POPS TO THE EXTREME WRN AREAS THIS MORNING...AND HOLDING THEM IN            
THE LAURELS THRU THE DAY...BUT DIPPING THEM TO 20S IN THE NWRN                  
MTS/PLATEAU IN THE AFTN.  THE DECENT CAP OVERHEAD (+8 TO +10C AT 7H)            
SHOULD LIMIT THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM...AND MAY KEEP              
MUCH THUNDER FROM OCCURRING. BUT WITH THINGS ALREADY GOING GOOD JUST            
TO OUR NW...WL MENTION THUNDER AS WELL.  THE ADDITION OF SOME                   
CLOUDS/DEBRIS FROM THE MCS WILL KEEP THINGS A BIT COOLER THAN                   
EARLIER EXPECTED AS WELL.  WILL KEEP MAXES BLO 90 IN MOST                       
LOCALES...EXCEPT THE LWR SUSQ.                                                  
ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTN SHOULD DIE AWAY FAST EARLY THIS EVENING.               
WILL ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHC POP IN THE SW FOR THE EVENING...THEN               
MAKE IT PRECIP FREE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.                                  
FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD START OUT DRY...TOO. BUT...A FAST (AND              
EVER-FASTER-PROGGED) MOVING COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE STATE FROM            
THE NORTH/NORTHWEST DURING THE DAYTIME.  OUR CAP WILL BE A BIT                  
WEAKER ON FRIDAY (+6-8C)...SO WILL CARRY A CHC POP FOR MOST OF THE              
AREA IN THE AFTN AND EVENING...TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHCS FOR THE REST             
OF FRI NITE.                                                                    
DANGELO                                                                         
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                       
MAKE A MINOR TWEAK OR TWO TO POPS ON SAT/NITE TO GO WITH EVER-FASTER            
TREND OF THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT...BUT OVERALL NO REAL CHANGES MADE                
BEYOND THAT.  CURR FCST IS GOOD WITH BIG PICTURE.  INTERESTING                  
PATTERN SHIFT MAY OCCUR LATE IN THE FCST TIME FRAME...AND MAY LEAD              
TO SUB-NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE MONTH - WITH MREF MEAN 5H                
HEIGHTS HINTING THAT AN UPPER TROF WL DIG OVER THE ERN CONUS.                   
DANGELO                                                                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
SOME MID AND HI CLDS TODAY...GIVEN WARM ADVECTION. A FEW SHOWERS AND            
STORMS COULD HOLD TOGETHER...BUT MOST AREAS WILL NOT SEE MUCH MORE              
THAN A SPRINKLE. MOST IF NOT ALL OF TODAY WILL BE VFR.                          
ONCE SUN SETS TONIGHT...AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS WORK IN...SOME MVFR                
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN BR.                                                        
MARTIN                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   pa                                                           


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
934 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS S TIEROF USA WITH WEAK TROUGH FROM                   
GREAT LAKES TO CENTAL MS VALLEY. CONVECTION DISSIPATING AS                      
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES. WILL LOWER POPS TO SLIGHT CHACNE SE AND                  
NONE REST OF AREA. DEW POINTS REMAIN RATHER ELEVATED...AND HAVE                 
RAISED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES NC MTS AND N NC FOOTHILLS FOR THIS                  
REASON. WINDS QUITE LIGHT...AND HAVE ADJUSTED 21Z RUC GUIDANCE IN               
THIS DIRECTIONS. WILL KEEP MENTION OF PATCHY FOG...WITH DENSE FOG               
MENTIONED IN NC MT VALLEYS. ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO MATCH SATELLITE               
IMAGERY EARLY...THEN TRENDED TOWARD PREVIOUS 12Z FORECAST.                      
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 257 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...                                    
RIDGETOPS PROVIDING LOCATION FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS                     
AFTERNOON. CELLS MOVING VERY SLOWLY WITH LIGHT STEERING FLOW IN THE             
MID LEVELS. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE THIS                    
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM OR                 
TWO...BUT SVR THREAT LOWER THAN FLOODING CHC. HAVE GONE WITH EARLY              
LIKELY POP NC FOOTHILLS/NC MTNS SOUTH AND WEST OF FRENCH BROAD...AND            
OVER SC/GA MTNS. SCT POP ELSEWHERE. WILL SEE SOME FOG                           
OVERNIGHT...BUT BEST CHC FOR DENSE FOG WILL BE MTN VALLEYS.                     
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHEAST TODAY WILL YIELD TO                  
SLIGHT LOWERING OF UPPER HEIGHTS THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A                      
DIFFLUENT NORTHWEST...BUT STILL PRETTY WEAK FLOW THROUGHOUT                     
THE COLUMN. ALL IN ALL...DOUBT THERE WILL BE MUCH CHANGE TO OUR                 
PERSISTENT SENSIBLE WEATHER...A CONTINUED THREAT OF SCATTERED                   
DIURNAL DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH ANOTHER DAY OF                   
FTHL/PIEDMONT MAXES IN THE LOWER 90S AND AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX                   
VALUES NEAR 100.                                                                
IT CONTINUES TO REMAIN UNCERTAIN WITH RESPECT TO MCS EVOLUTION                  
THURSDAY NIGHT AND/OR FRIDAY BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN WOULD STILL                
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT OR               
FRIDAY MORNING...WHETHER IT MAKES IT THIS FAR SOUTHEAST IS STILL                
DEBATABLE. NOT THAT IT IS CORRECT...BUT THE 12 UTC GFS IS NOW                   
SHOWING STRONG SIGNALS OF LINEAR DEEP CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE                
MTNS FRIDAY MORNING AND QUICKLY SWEEPING ACRS THE CWFA BY THE                   
AFTERNOON. THERE IS EVEN SOME SUPPORT ALBEIT WEAKER ON THE 12 UTC               
NAM WITH S/WV PASSAGE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...SO WILL CONTINUE TO               
ADVERTISE POPS OUTSIDE OF TYPICAL DIURNAL FOR THIS PERIOD. AS IN                
EARLIER RUNS...THE LATEST GFS CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER/DEEPER WITH                
MAIN S/WV PASSAGE...WHICH DOES NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.              
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...PLAN ON LEAVING CHC POPS AS IS UNTIL 06Z                  
SATURDAY.                                                                       
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                       
CWFA LOOKS TO COME UNDER S/WV RIDGING SATURDAY WITH DEEPER RH                   
DISPLACED OFF TO OUR SOUTH. IT WILL CONTINUE TO HEAT UP WITH                    
FTHL/PIEDMONT MAXES IN THE MID 90S. WITH THE ABSENCE OF THE                     
BETTER RH AND LARGER SCALE SUPPORT...PLAN ON CONTINUING DIURNAL                 
CHC POPS FOR JUST THE MTNS. LARGE UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD EVEN                   
FURTHER EAST INTO THE CWFA SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR A FEW MORE HOT                 
DAYS. AGAIN...ANY DIURNAL DEEP CONVECTIVE CHANCE WOULD LOOK TO BE               
ISOLATED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN IF NOT COMPLETELY SUPPRESSED. WE WILL            
HAVE TO MONITOR DEWPOINT TRENDS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY FOR THE                 
POTENTIAL FOR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING REACHED. PLAN ON SLIGHT              
CHANCE OR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR DAYS 6 AND 7 WITH TEMPS HEADING BACK              
TOWARD CLIMO AS UPPER RIDGING BREAKS DOWN.                                      
AVIATION...                                                                     
TAFS START OFF WITH VCTS AT ALL LOCATIONS XCPT KCLT WHERE TSRA STILL            
QUITE A DISTANCE AWAY. DO HAVE CB MENTION THERE. WILL AMD IF/WHEN               
CELLS APPROACH AIRFIELDS. GUIDANCE NOT CONSISTENT WITH MVFR FOG                 
CHANCE OVERNIGHT...XCPT AT KAVL WHERE IFR FOG/CIGS LOOK LIKELY. DID             
INCLUDE MVFR FOG AT KHKY/KAND WHERE IT IS FAVORED ACCORDING TO                  
CLIMO. RESTRICTIONS END QUICKLY...ABOUT 13Z...THU MORNING. VFR FOR              
THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JAT                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA                                              
255 PM PDT THU JUL 21 2005                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW POSITIONED 230 MILES SOUTHWEST OF                
CAPE MENDOCINO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING            
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND            
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. AFTER FRIDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH                 
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL REMAIN            
IN PLACE AND MAINTAIN A WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS                     
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. ELEVATED CONVECTION LOOKS TO              
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST FRI 18Z AS THE SLOW-MOVING UPPER-LEVEL LOW             
TO OUR SOUTHWEST CONTINUES TO TRACK ENEWD. ITS PROGGED TO BE IN                 
NORTHERN IDAHO BY FRIDAY EVENING. WATER VAPOR LOOP SUGGESTS THAT THE            
UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS 50N BETWEEN 120W-123W WHICH SHOULD SLOW THE            
SYSTEM PROGRESSION SOME IF NOT SIGNIFICANTLY. MEANWHILE A DECENT TAP            
OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND A WEAK PUSH OF ONSHORE FLOW APPEARS TO                
WEAKEN THE MID-LEVEL CAP FROM 14C DOWN TO 9C/10C BETWEEN FRI/06Z-18Z            
NORTH OF ROUTE 36. PORTIONS OF CAZ003 AND SRN CAZ076 MUCH COOLER                
TODAY VS 24 HOURS AGO AND EXPECT A DECENT STRATUS SHIELD TO SEEP                
INLAND ABOUT 25 MILES TONIGHT ACROSS MENDOCINO COUNTY AND THROUGH               
HUMBOLDT COUNTY AND INTO THE REDWOOD VALLEY BETWEEN LORD ELLIS AND              
BERRY SUMMIT BY MORNING. TRICKY HIGH TEMP FORECAST ON FRIDAY WITH               
SUMMER NORMALS ALONG AND WEST OF A GASQUET-WILLOW CREEK-UKIAH LINE              
BUT NOT MUCH COOLING ALONG OUR EASTERN FRINGES.                                 
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY AND BEYOND. MODELS HAVE SOME VARIATION BEYOND             
72HR CLIMO TIMEFRAME. BUT GOOD TO SEE THAT EC/GFSLR HAVE CLUED IN               
SOMEWHAT ON WHAT TO MAKE OF THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE EMILY. THIS               
ALL DOES CAUSE A MAJOR TUSSLE BETWEEN SOLUTIONS AROUND 84HRS WITH               
HOW TO HANDLE THE TRANSITION ZONE (IE SUBTROPICAL/MID LATITUDE FLOW             
BETWEEN 35-45N AT LEAST BETWEEN 120-130W)...AND UPPER-FLOW PATTERN              
OVER NW CALIF. DOUBT THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND                 
POINTS EAST OF THE SIERRA SEE MUCH CHANGE/MODIFICATION OVER THE                 
WEEKEND NORTH OF 40-42N...WHICH WOULD PUT A HOLD ON WHAT WILL                   
TRANSPIRE WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM/TROUGH NEAR 40N              
150W AND WHAT SPIN IS LEFT ALOFT WITH EMILY TO OUR SOUTH. THE ENTIRE            
PATTERN OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN STILL LOOKS IN FLUX...SO            
WILL STAY DRY...LIMIT THE IMPACT OF THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND HAVE             
ANOTHER WARMUP EDGING TEMPS BACK TO/ABOVE THE 100 DEGREE MARK                   
INLAND.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...46022 CONTINUES TO CLOCK SIG WAVE HEIGHTS QUITE A BIT                 
HIGHER THAN WW3 GUIDANCE. SUSPECT THIS IS A RESULT OF GFS SFC WINDS             
UNDERESTIMATING THE NW FLOW IN THE OUTER WATERS W OF THE 46027 BUOY             
WHICH THE RUC PICKS UP ON A BIT BETTER. AS A RESULT WILL CONTINUE               
WITH HAZ SEAS ADVISORY FOR 8X8S WITHIN THE INNER 20 N OF CAPE MENDO             
BUT XPCT FRESH SWELL TO DAMPEN IN THE MORNING DAYTIME THU. WEAK SFC             
LOW TRACKING N OVER WATERS THU WILL EASE WINDS...BUT FOLLOWING                  
PASSAGE BLDG SFC HIGH AND THERMAL LOW WILL CRANK UP N FLOW.                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...STRATUS SLIVER BUTTING UP AGAINST THE IMMEDIATE REDWOOD             
COAST AT 21Z WITH MUCH DEEPER MARINE LAYER S OF CAPE MENDOCINO. VSBL            
SHOWS FRONT EDGE OF DEEPER MSTR MOVG N THRU SRN WATERS OVER TOP A               
CYCLONIC SWIRL OR LOW CIGS AND FOG. AS S FLOW OVERTAKES WATERS XPCT             
STRATUS TO MOVE NWD. NOT XPTG MASSIVE INLAND INTRUSION OVERNIGHT BUT            
WITH BLDG DEPTH SUSPECT COASTAL AIRFIELDS WILL GET A SPILLAGE OF IFR            
LIFR COND TNGT.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION: MJV                                                        
MARINE/AVIATION: COLBY                                                          
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ca                                                           


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
258 PM MDT THU JUL 21 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TONIGHT AND FRIDAY).                                                           
SHORT TERM CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE CONVECTION COVERAGE AND                      
TEMPERATURES.                                                                   
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING               
CENTROID OF LARGE 600DM HIGH SHIFTING SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH ACROSS              
NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO...WITH WEAK EAST TO NORTHEAST STEERING FLOW              
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION ATTM. WATER VAPOR ALSO INDICATING                  
MINOR SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA ATTM. AT THE SFC...             
WEAK DENVER CYCLONE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...WITH SATELLITE                  
INDICATING CU FIELD ACROSS THE PALMER DVD AND BACK THROUGH KAKO ATTM.           
REGIONAL RADARS INDICATING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER             
TERRAIN GENERALLY MOVING SOUTHWEST WITH THE MEAN STEERING FLOW.                 
TONIGHT...UPPER HIGH ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO CONTINUES TO                 
SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH AND EAST WITH MINOR WAVE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA             
CONTINUING TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT. WITH CONVERGENCE              
ALONG WITH PALMER DVD...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A FEW TSRA DEVELOP                 
THROUGH THE EVENING...MOVING SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN               
PORTIONS OF EL PASO COUNTY AND WILL KEEP ISOLATED POPS THROUGH                  
THE EVENING. SOUNDINGS INDICATING RATHER THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE                 
BETWEEN H5-H4 WITH MAINLY HIGH BASED STORMS EXPECTED PRODUCING GUSTY            
WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAIN. CONVECTION ACROSS           
THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALSO CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY HIGH BASED...WITH MORE           
WIND THAN RAIN EXPECTED AS WELL. WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND PASSING NE              
DISTURBANCE...WILL SEE ISOLATED STORMS DIMINISHING ACROSS THE REGION            
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH CLEARING SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT.                       
FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TREND OF LARGE UPPER HIGH TO SLOWLY DRIFT              
EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO...WITH UPPER STEERING FLOW                   
BECOMING EASTERLY ACROSS EASTERN CO AND MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST                 
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. MOISTURE PROFILES INDICATING BEST           
MOISTURE TO MOVE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WEST AND NORTH OF             
THE AREA ACROSS WESTERN UTAH AND INTO NORTHERN WYOMING. MODEL                   
SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATING JUST ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE            
HIGHER TERRAIN FOR ISOLATED HIGH BASED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE             
AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN...AND WITH EASTERLY STEERING FLOW WILL KEEP THE            
PLAINS DRY. EXPECTED CONVECTION AND DRY LIGHTNING POTENTIAL CONTINUES           
TO BE ISOLATED ENOUGH IN NATURE AND WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FIRE WX                  
HIGHLIGHTS...THOUGH WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR...AS FUELS ARE             
REMAINING VERY DRY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT REMAIN SIMILAR UNDER THE                 
RIDGE...AND HAVE GONE CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE FOR HIGHS TOMORROW. -MW              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)                                                 
FRI NIGHT AND SAT THE UPR RIDGE WL BE IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING E              
OF STATE AND BECOMING MORE CENTERED OVER MO BY SUN. THIS WL ALLOW A             
LITTLE MORE MSTR TO ENTER MAINLY THE WRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.             
STILL THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN FRI NIGHT THRU SUN WL BE OVR THE                
MTS AND NEARBY LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.             
TEMPS OVR THE AREA WL STILL REMAIN HOT SAT BUT A VERY SLIGHT COOL               
DOWN IS EXPECTED FOR SUN.  ON SUN A SHRTWV TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE             
ACRS THE STATE AND THIS COULD HELP TO PRODUCE A SLIGHTLY BETTER                 
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS.  MUCH THE SAME FOR MON WITH TEMPS                     
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL STILL AND ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN               
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.                                                
TUE A FRONT MOVES THRU THE SE CO PLAINS AND THIS LOOKS LIKE OUR                 
COOLEST AND MOST UNSETTLED DAY OF THE PERIOD.  TEMPS DROP TO AROUND             
NORMAL AND PCPN CHANCES WL BE A LITTLE BETTER...AND PCPN COULD                  
CONTINUE LATER INTO THE NIGHT.                                                  
FOR WED AND THU AN UPR RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD AGAIN OVR THE WRN                  
STATES WITH AN UPR HIGH CENTERED OR AZ BY THU AFTERNOON...SO TEMPS              
WARM AGAIN.  THERE WL STILL BE ENOUGH MSTR OVR THE AREA TO CONTINUE             
MENTIONING SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOW PCPN CHANCES.                         
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
300 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2005                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...WATER VAPOR (WV) IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LVL RIDGING                    
DOMINATES THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS...WHILE A SERIES OF SHORT              
WAVE TROUGHS ARE MOVING AROUND THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE                 
ACROSS THE MIDWEST REGION. RUC40 1000-500MB STREAMLINES INDICATE THAT           
THE MEAN LAYER BERMUDA RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS GA...AND SUCH A                
POSITION CONTINUES SSE FLOW OVER THE JAX CWA TONIGHT. WE REMAIN                 
UNSEASONABLY DRY AS THE KJAX 00Z RAOB REPORTED A PWAT OF ONLY 1.6               
INCHES. WV SHOWS A SWATH OF DRY AIR MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON THE SE            
SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...BUT NOTE THAT AS TROUGHING ACROSS THE                 
MIDWEST IS BREAKING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND ALLOWING MORE           
MOISTURE TO CREEP SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE JAX CWA.                                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THRU SAT...THE UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE                
TO BREAK DOWN TODAY ACROSS THE SE REGION AS TROUGHING ACROSS THE                
MIDWEST ADVANCES SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE MEAN LAYER BERMUDA              
RIDGE AXIS TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD AS WELL...AND POSITION OVER THE                   
FORECAST AREA TODAY PROVIDING LIGHT STEERING FLOW AND ALLOW FOR                 
ANOTHER INLAND SEABREEZE MERGER. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD SLIGHTLY HIGHER            
POPS ACROSS OUR GA ZONES THIS AFTN AS SUBSIDENCE WILL BE WEAKENING              
OVER THESE ZONES AND MOISTURE INCREASING. FRI THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS               
SHUNTS FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH AS A SFC BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST           
REGION. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING SSW TO THE AREA AS WELL AS MORE              
MOISTURE WITH PWATS NEARING 2 INCHES...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH                   
INCREASING POPS FRI ACROSS THE BOARD WITH 40% INLAND TO 30% NEAR THE            
COAST. SAT THE SFC FRONT WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF OUR GA ZONES WHICH            
WILL KEEP THE JAX CWA IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS               
WITH CONVECTION ENHANCED IN THE AFTN BY SEABREEZE AND BOUNDARY                  
COLLISIONS. STEERING FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WLY SO AFTN CONVECTION               
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL APPROACH THE EAST COAST DURING THE EVENING             
HOURS. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING...MAINLY WHERE                  
RAINFALL OCCURRED THE PREVIOUS DAY.                                             
TEMPS WILL REMAIN AOA CLIMO VALUES WITH MAXES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S             
AND MINS IN THE MID 70S. THESE VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD                    
UNCOMFORTABLE HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER 100S.                                   
.LONG TERM...SUN THRU WED...THE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE OVER THE                  
REGION AS UPPER LVL HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS               
AND ALLOWS THE LOW LVL BERMUDA RIDGE TO BUILD BACK OVER CENTRAL FL.             
THE CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL TAPER FROM 40-50% THIS WEEKEND...TO NEAR              
CLIMO VALUES OF 35-40% BY MID-WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE AOA CLIMO VALUES              
FROM THE LOW-MID 90S TO LOW-MID 70S.                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH              
SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS...EXCEPT FOR THE OCCASIONAL                    
NOCTURNAL SURGE NEAR 15 KNOTS ACRS THE GA WTRS. OTHERWISE THE ONLY              
OTHER NOTEWORTHY ITEM WILL BE POSSIBLE INCREASE IN EASTERLY SWELLS              
FROM A DEVELOPING WAVE TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...STILL MUCH                  
UNCERTAINITY IN THIS SYSTEM ON TRACK AND POSSIBLE INTENSITY.                    
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
AMG  94  74  94  75 /  40  30  40  40                                           
SSI  90  78  90  79 /  20  10  30  40                                           
JAX  93  75  92  76 /  20  10  40  40                                           
SGJ  90  78  90  78 /  20  10  30  30                                           
GNV  95  74  93  75 /  40  20  40  40                                           
OCF  94  74  93  75 /  30  20  40  40                                           
&&                                                                              
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC...ENYEDI                                                                 
MARINE/FIRE WX...HESS                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
230 PM EST THU JUL 21 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...                                                           
MAIN CHALLENGE WILL REVOLVE AROUND CONVECTION CHANCES TONIGHT AND               
ASSOCIATED RISKS FOR SVR WX AND HEAVY RAIN. NAM/GFS/RUC HAVE DONE A             
POOR JOB OF EVEN SHOWING THE ONGOING CONVECTION NOW MOVING ACROSS               
WESTERN LWR MI. AS A RESULT...SOME CONFIDENCE LOST IN MODELS.                   
HOWEVER...THEY HAVE SHOWN FAIRLY WELL THE EXTREMELY UNSTABLE                    
CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH LI'S AVERAGING FROM -10 TO             
AS HIGH AS -13 C IN WESTERN INDIANA AND MUCH OF ILLINOIS AS TEMPS               
CLIMB CLOSE TO OR IN THE 90S AND SFC DEWPTS AOA 70 WITH SOME                    
LOCATION IN ILLINOIS SHOWING MID-UPR 70S DEWPTS. CAPES WELL OVER                
3000 J/KG AS WELL. STG 700 MB CAP (SEEN ON 18Z ILX SOUNDING) IN                 
PLACE HELPING TO HOLD OFF MUCH OF THE CONVECTION...BUT COMBINATION              
OF LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY AS WELL AS OTHER BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA HAVE            
RESULTED IN ONE STORM THAT RAPIDLY DEVELOPED OVER CHICAGO AND IS NOW            
MOVING OVER THE LAKE. AS SHORTWAVE/MCVS MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE             
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...CAP SHOULD ERODE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR POTENTIAL             
FOR EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS. WITH INSTABILITY IN                        
PLACE...STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME RATHER STRONG IF NOT SEVERE IN             
SOME AREAS. SEVERE THREAT MAY BE CONFINED TO THIS EVENING WITH                  
ACTIVITY TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT OVERNIGHT ONCE            
AGAIN. BOTH GFS AND NAM GO CRAZY WITH QPF TONIGHT WILL BULLSEYE OF              
NEARLY 7 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN CWA BY 06Z/FRI. NAM NOT AS HIGH AND            
A BIT MORE REASONABLE BUT STILL SHOWING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN                   
POSSIBLE. GIVEN WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT AS WELL AS BOUNDARY SINKING            
SOUTH THROUGH MI AND DECENT 850 JET TO SET UP ALL PROVIDING A GOOD              
FOCUS FOR REDEVELOPMENT. EVEN WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING LIKELY TO CAT               
POPS TONIGHT ALL AREAS...WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE DEVELOPMENT BEFORE              
GOING TO LIKELY/NUMEROUS MENTION. WILL MAKE LAST SECOND CALL ON                 
ZONES DEPENDING ON TRENDS. ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT IN STORE                
WITH LOWS AROUND 70.                                                            
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY BE SINKING SOUTH LATER TONIGHT AND                 
FRIDAY...USHERING IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY AIR. QUESTION IS HOW FAR             
SOUTH THIS DRIER AIR MAKES IT ON FRIDAY. WITH UNCERTANTITY ALREADY              
IN PLACE REGARDING EFFECTS OF CONVECTION TONIGHT...HAVE OPTED TO                
LEAVE FRIDAY FORECAST INTACT AND LET MIDNIGHT SHIFT TAKE A LOOK AT              
FRONTAL POSITION AND POTENTIAL LINGERING PRECIP ALONG/SOUTH OF IT.              
HIGHS OF UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 SUPPORTED ONCE AGAIN BY HOPEFULLY A             
GOOD DEAL OF SUN AS WELL AS 850 MB TEMPS OF +18 TO +20. TEMPS MAY               
NEED TO BE LOWERED AT BENTON HARBOR IF LIGHT NE WIND CAN DEVELOP AND            
ALLOW FOR LAKE BREEZE AND COOLER TEMPS. HAVE LEFT ALONE FOR NOW.                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...                                                
FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH DRIER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE REGION AS             
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA. BOTH GFS AND            
NAM HAVE DEWPOINTS DROPPING TO AROUND 60F BY 12Z SAT OVER MOST OF               
THE CWA AND GIVEN CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S OVER CENTRAL MN              
AND NORTHERN WI THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. THIS WILL DROP TEMPS                     
COMFORTABLY DOWN TO THE 60-65F DEGREE RANGE FOR SATURDAY MORNING                
LOWS. SURFACE HIGH TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN GREAT LAKES                  
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...HOLDING OFF RETURN FLOW KEEPING HEAT                  
INDICES IN CHECK WHILE HIGHS REACH 85-90F. WARM FRONT THEN MOVES                
BACK THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AS SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING IN THE                  
NORTHERN PLAINS MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION             
WITH PARENT SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH IN CANADA. DEEP MOISTURE              
AND FORCING EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF OUR AREA KEEPING FORECAST DRY             
THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TO RETURN SUNDAY.            
UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN US RESULTS IN HOT AND HUMID               
CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RIDGE AXIS PUSHES TO EAST COAST              
BY TUESDAY AND ALLOWING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT TO            
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING THE NEXT              
CHANCE FOR PRECIP. ANOTHER DRY AIRMASS PROGGED TO MOVE BEHIND THIS              
FRONT BRINGING LESS HUMID CONDITIONS AND TEMPS ACTUALLY DROPPING A              
COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.                  
.AVIATION...                                                                    
TOUGH FORECAST NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS IN REGARDS TO CONVECTION. DYING               
COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL TRACK NORTH OF BOTH SITES. MAIN CONCERN WILL             
BE FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT IN ILLINOIS OR POSSIBLE WESTERN INDIANA THIS             
AFTERNOON AS A SERIES OF BOUNDARIES INTERACT WITH A VERY UNSTABLE               
AIRMASS AND A APPROACHING SHORTWAVE COMES IN TO ENHANCE THINGS. FOR             
NOW HAVE CONTINUED TEMPO GROUPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE AT               
BOTH SITES. AS CONVECTION BEGINS TO DEVELOP...LATER AMENDMENTS WILL             
LIKELY BE NEEDED. OUTSIDE OF STORMS...STILL EXPECT GENERAL VFR                  
CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CU FORMATION SO FAR.                       
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...FISHER/WAMSLEY                                            
LONG TERM...LOGSDON                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1228 PM EST THU JUL 21 2005                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
TOUGH FORECAST NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS IN REGARDS TO CONVECTION. DYING               
COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL TRACK NORTH OF BOTH SITES. MAIN CONCERN WILL             
BE FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT IN ILLINOIS OR POSSIBLE WESTERN INDIANA THIS             
AFTERNOON AS A SERIES OF BOUNDARIES INTERACT WITH A VERY UNSTABLE               
AIRMASS AND A APPROACHING SHORTWAVE COMES IN TO ENHANCE THINGS. FOR             
NOW HAVE CONTINUED TEMPO GROUPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE AT               
BOTH SITES. AS CONVECTION BEGINS TO DEVELOP...LATER AMENDMENTS WILL             
LIKELY BE NEEDED. OUTSIDE OF STORMS...STILL EXPECT GENERAL VFR                  
CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CU FORMATION SO FAR.                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSIONS                                                               
UPDATE...                                                                       
CONCERNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WILL CENTER AROUND MCS HOLDING              
TOGETHER ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND TO A LESSER EXTENT NORTHERN              
ILLINOIS. SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS AREA HAS BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP               
FURTHER SOUTH BUT APPEARS TO BE STRUGGLING AT THIS TIME DESPITE MAIN            
INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS THIS AREA WITH MSAS LI'S AROUND -7 C ALREADY            
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CNTRL AND NE IL. STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY                
LOCATED FROM SOUTHERN WI/N IL INTO SOUTHER LWR MI. KLOT RADAR                   
SHOWING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW WORKING EAST APPROACHING JOLIET AND                
CHICAGO METRO AREA. THIS BOUNDARY AND CURRENT STORMS OVER IL WILL BE            
MOVING INTO  WOULD EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE EAST...POSSIBLY BECOMING             
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR OUR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE             
WESTERN AREAS. SVR WATCH ISSUED A BIT AGO UP TO THE IN/IL STATE                 
LINE. WOULD EXPECT INSTABILITY TO INCREASE ACROSS ENTIRE CWA THIS               
AFTERNOON AS SFC DEWPTS SITTING AOA 70 DEGREES IN MANY                          
AREAS...COMBINED WITH TEMPS ALREADY PUSHING 80 IN WESTERN AREAS                 
SHOULD YIELD FAIRLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. 12Z NAM/6Z GFS DEPICT                  
MID-UPR 70S DEWPTS TO THE WEST OF US THROUGH EARLY AFTN THEN                    
SHIFTING EAST INTO OUR AREA...YIELDING LI'S -9 TO -11 C AND CAPES               
WELL OVER 3000 J/KG. HOWEVER...BASED ON OBS...DEWPOINTS SEVERAL                 
DEGREES LOWER THAN MODELS SHOWING AT THIS TIME. WOULD NOT BE                    
SURPRISED TO SEE DEWPTS CLIMB SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GOOD                 
CONVERGENCE SETTING UP...BUT THINK MODELS MAY BE OVERDONE SOMEWHAT.             
REGARDLESS...SVR THREAT EXISTS...BUT AT THIS TIME WILL HOLD OFF ON              
MENTION IN ZONES AND MONITOR TRENDS TO THE WEST. HWO HAS THINGS                 
COVERED AT THIS TIME...SO WILL PLACE MENTION OF STRONG STORMS AND               
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE SCT WORDING AREA. REST OF THE FORECAST               
APPEARS FINE AT THIS TIME...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO OR ABOVE            
90 IN MANY AREAS AS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS PASSING MAINLY NORTH OF THE               
AREA.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
MORE QN/S THEN ANSWERS THIS AM. SADLY...BULK OF CWA GETTING SPLIT BY            
CONVN W/VRY IMPRESSIVE CLUSTER OVR NE IL ATTM AND RIGHT WHERE GFS               
INDICATED LAST NIGHT. OF NOTE IS DEEP OFB ANCHORED UPSTREAM W/LLJ               
ALIGNMENT INTO IT OVR IL WHICH SUGGESTS THIS CLUSTER WILL CONT FOR              
SOME TIME THIS AM AS IT DIVES SEWD INTO WRN INDIANA. OF GREATER                 
INTEREST IS MATURE SEVERE MCS ACRS NE NEB W/APPARENT WAKE LOW BEHIND            
IT. 00Z GUIDANCE SEEMS TO CAPTURE THE DVLPMNT OF THIS FTR TO SOME               
DEGREE BUT DETAIL RESOLUTION EXPECTANTLY POOR AND NOD TWD TIMING                
ARRIVAL OF UPSTREAM MCV GIVEN TWD 06Z RUC/12KM NAM. ATTM DOUBT OFB              
WILL MOVE IF AT ALL AND LIKELY FOCUS SFC BASED DVLPMNT THIS AFTN                
WELL W ACRS IL. HWVR THAT SAID...OUTFLW BUBBLE IN PLACE INADV OF                
EJECTING NEB RIDGE RIDER VRY WELL COULD FIRE ELEVATED CONVN OVRTOP              
CWA LT THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT AS MCV ENHANCED LLJ DVLPS W/STG                    
ELEVATED THETA-E FLUX INTO ESP NRN INDIANA OVERNIGHT AND WHICH FITS             
WITHIN GOING GFS/NAM/RUC SOLUTIONS ALTHOUGH GFS LOOKS TOO FAR N                 
OVERNIGHT. 06Z 12KM NAM LOOKS EXCEEDINGLY WELL AND WILL FOLLOW                  
CLOSELY FOR LT THIS AFTN/OVERNIGHT.                                             
OTHERWISE...LLJ SEGMENT ACRS IL LOOKS TO WKN LTR THIS AM AND SHLD               
RESULT IN RAPID DECAY OF ONGOING MCS AND CLOUD DEBRIS BY MID/LATE AM.           
THUS PROGGED INSOLATION WITHIN A BIT WARMER THERMAL RIDGE THEN YDA              
SHLD EQUATE TO LOW 90S FOR MOST.                                                
LONG TERM...                                                                    
NOT MUCH GOING ON IN THE FRIDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THE BIGGEST            
THING IS A FRONT AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW THE TIMING            
IS TO HAVE THE COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO               
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND                   
SATURDAY. SUNDAY MODELS ARE DIFFERING SOMEWHAT. GFS80 HAS A LOW                 
MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH QUEBEC SUNDAY WITH A TROUGH DOWN INTO                   
MICHIGAN AND HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. DGEX HAS SUNDAY            
WET AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND THEN IT MOVES THAT LOW                   
NORTHEAST WHILE BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY                   
NIGHT. THEN HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY. ECMWF HAS HIGH PRESSURE IN                
PLACE FOR SUNDAY. THE CANADIAN MODEL'S STORY FOR SUNDAY IS A LOW IN             
WISCONSIN WITH A WARM FRONT TO THE EAST OF US AND KEEPING SUNDAY                
DRY. THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY HAS BEEN DRY AND WITH JUST THE DGEX                
SHOWING RAIN WITH A DIFFERING SCENARIO THAN OTHER MODELS, HAVE KEPT             
SUNDAY DRY. THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THAT                 
FRONT PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN JUST EXPECTING                 
TEMPERATURES TO REACH TO UP AROUND 80 FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY.                       
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE/AVIATION...FISHER                                                        
SHORT TERM...HOLSTEN                                                            
LONG TERM...LOTHAMER                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
940 AM EST THU JUL 21 2005                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
CONCERNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WILL CENTER AROUND MCS HOLDING              
TOGETHER ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND TO A LESSER EXTENT NORTHERN              
ILLINOIS. SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS AREA HAS BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP               
FURTHER SOUTH BUT APPEARS TO BE STRUGGLING AT THIS TIME DESPITE MAIN            
INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS THIS AREA WITH MSAS LI'S AROUND -7 C ALREADY            
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CNTRL AND NE IL. STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY                
LOCATED FROM SOUTHERN WI/N IL INTO SOUTHER LWR MI. KLOT RADAR                   
SHOWING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW WORKING EAST APPROACHING JOLIET AND                
CHICAGO METRO AREA. THIS BOUNDARY AND CURRENT STORMS OVER IL WILL BE            
MOVING INTO  WOULD EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE EAST...POSSIBLY BECOMING             
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR OUR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE             
WESTERN AREAS. SVR WATCH ISSUED A BIT AGO UP TO THE IN/IL STATE                 
LINE. WOULD EXPECT INSTABILITY TO INCREASE ACROSS ENTIRE CWA THIS               
AFTERNOON AS SFC DEWPTS SITTING AOA 70 DEGREES IN MANY                          
AREAS...COMBINED WITH TEMPS ALREADY PUSHING 80 IN WESTERN AREAS                 
SHOULD YIELD FAIRLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. 12Z NAM/6Z GFS DEPICT                  
MID-UPR 70S DEWPTS TO THE WEST OF US THROUGH EARLY AFTN THEN                    
SHIFTING EAST INTO OUR AREA...YIELDING LI'S -9 TO -11 C AND CAPES               
WELL OVER 3000 J/KG. HOWEVER...BASED ON OBS...DEWPOINTS SEVERAL                 
DEGREES LOWER THAN MODELS SHOWING AT THIS TIME. WOULD NOT BE                    
SURPRISED TO SEE DEWPTS CLIMB SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GOOD                 
CONVERGENCE SETTING UP...BUT THINK MODELS MAY BE OVERDONE SOMEWHAT.             
REGARDLESS...SVR THREAT EXISTS...BUT AT THIS TIME WILL HOLD OFF ON              
MENTION IN ZONES AND MONITOR TRENDS TO THE WEST. HWO HAS THINGS                 
COVERED AT THIS TIME...SO WILL PLACE MENTION OF STRONG STORMS AND               
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE SCT WORDING AREA. REST OF THE FORECAST               
APPEARS FINE AT THIS TIME...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO OR ABOVE            
90 IN MANY AREAS AS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS PASSING MAINLY NORTH OF THE               
AREA.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSIONS                                                               
AVIATION/PREVIOUS UPDATE...                                                     
UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS THIS AM W/IMPRESSIVE UPSTREAM SVR MCS ACRS SRN              
MN AND NRN IA. AT LEAST SHRT TERM RUC INDICATIONS ALG W/06Z 12KM NAM            
PAINTING A REASONABLY SOLID FCST SCENARIO INTO THIS AFTN AND MORESO             
THIS EVENING. LTL TO WORRY ABT EARLY ON W/RAPIDLY DECAYING CONV                 
CLUSTER OVR CNTRL INDIANA W/HIGH CLD SHIELD ERODING QUICKLY AND                 
WHICH SHLD GIVE WAY TO SCT CU BY MID AM. HWVR BEYOND THAT...ATTN                
TURNS WWD W/INCOMING MCV AND ASSOCD COUPLED OFB/GRAVITY WAVE PACKET.            
WOULD SUSPECT CONVN TO MAINTAIN N OF SFC BNDRY AS GRAVITY WAVE CONTS            
PROPAGATING EWD ALG SFC BNDRY AND IN AGREEMENT W/09Z RUC. ENHANCED              
MID LVL MESOSCALE SW HANDLED SIMILARLY W/INCREASING DOWNSTREAM LL               
WIND RESPONSE XPCD AND GIVEN PRESENCE OF STG THETA-E GRADIENT                   
IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM OVR IL...SOME QN REMAINS ON HOW EARLY CONV                 
DVLPMNT MAY OCCUR HERE. EARLIER LOOKING BTR AND W/12Z TAF ISSUANCE              
HAVE INSERTED TEMPO THUNDER FM 23Z/SBN TO 01Z/FWA TO START. THIS                
ALREADY ACCOUNTED FOR IN ZONE TIMING ALTHOUGH IMPLIED CHC LOOKING               
GREATER TWD EVENING THEN CURRENTLY SUGGESTED. OTHERWISE POST OUTFLW             
PRESTORM DESTABILIZATION SIGNAL VERY MIXED W/09Z RUC INDICATION WELL            
N AND E OF 06Z NAM. THIS QUITE TROUBLING GIVEN INHERENT SVR                     
POTENTIAL INADV OF MCV INDUCED MID LVL WIND MAX AND POTENTIAL FOR               
NEARBY OFB TO MIX NEWD THIS AFTN. WILL AWAIT 12Z DATA FOR BTR                   
CONSENSUS.                                                                      
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
MORE QN/S THEN ANSWERS THIS AM. SADLY...BULK OF CWA GETTING SPLIT BY            
CONVN W/VRY IMPRESSIVE CLUSTER OVR NE IL ATTM AND RIGHT WHERE GFS               
INDICATED LAST NIGHT. OF NOTE IS DEEP OFB ANCHORED UPSTREAM W/LLJ               
ALIGNMENT INTO IT OVR IL WHICH SUGGESTS THIS CLUSTER WILL CONT FOR              
SOME TIME THIS AM AS IT DIVES SEWD INTO WRN INDIANA. OF GREATER                 
INTEREST IS MATURE SEVERE MCS ACRS NE NEB W/APPARENT WAKE LOW BEHIND            
IT. 00Z GUIDANCE SEEMS TO CAPTURE THE DVLPMNT OF THIS FTR TO SOME               
DEGREE BUT DETAIL RESOLUTION EXPECTANTLY POOR AND NOD TWD TIMING                
ARRIVAL OF UPSTREAM MCV GIVEN TWD 06Z RUC/12KM NAM. ATTM DOUBT OFB              
WILL MOVE IF AT ALL AND LIKELY FOCUS SFC BASED DVLPMNT THIS AFTN                
WELL W ACRS IL. HWVR THAT SAID...OUTFLW BUBBLE IN PLACE INADV OF                
EJECTING NEB RIDGE RIDER VRY WELL COULD FIRE ELEVATED CONVN OVRTOP              
CWA LT THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT AS MCV ENHANCED LLJ DVLPS W/STG                    
ELEVATED THETA-E FLUX INTO ESP NRN INDIANA OVERNIGHT AND WHICH FITS             
WITHIN GOING GFS/NAM/RUC SOLUTIONS ALTHOUGH GFS LOOKS TOO FAR N                 
OVERNIGHT. 06Z 12KM NAM LOOKS EXCEEDINGLY WELL AND WILL FOLLOW                  
CLOSELY FOR LT THIS AFTN/OVERNIGHT.                                             
OTHERWISE...LLJ SEGMENT ACRS IL LOOKS TO WKN LTR THIS AM AND SHLD               
RESULT IN RAPID DECAY OF ONGOING MCS AND CLOUD DEBRIS BY MID/LATE AM.           
THUS PROGGED INSOLATION WITHIN A BIT WARMER THERMAL RIDGE THEN YDA              
SHLD EQUATE TO LOW 90S FOR MOST.                                                
LONG TERM...                                                                    
NOT MUCH GOING ON IN THE FRIDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THE BIGGEST            
THING IS A FRONT AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW THE TIMING            
IS TO HAVE THE COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO               
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND                   
SATURDAY. SUNDAY MODELS ARE DIFFERING SOMEWHAT. GFS80 HAS A LOW                 
MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH QUEBEC SUNDAY WITH A TROUGH DOWN INTO                   
MICHIGAN AND HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. DGEX HAS SUNDAY            
WET AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND THEN IT MOVES THAT LOW                   
NORTHEAST WHILE BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY                   
NIGHT. THEN HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY. ECMWF HAS HIGH PRESSURE IN                
PLACE FOR SUNDAY. THE CANADIAN MODEL'S STORY FOR SUNDAY IS A LOW IN             
WISCONSIN WITH A WARM FRONT TO THE EAST OF US AND KEEPING SUNDAY                
DRY. THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY HAS BEEN DRY AND WITH JUST THE DGEX                
SHOWING RAIN WITH A DIFFERING SCENARIO THAN OTHER MODELS, HAVE KEPT             
SUNDAY DRY. THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THAT                 
FRONT PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN JUST EXPECTING                 
TEMPERATURES TO REACH TO UP AROUND 80 FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY.                       
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...FISHER                                                                 
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HOLSTEN                                                   
LONG TERM...LOTHAMER                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
600 AM EST THU JUL 21 2005                                                      
.AVIATION/UPDATE...                                                             
UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS THIS AM W/IMPRESSIVE UPSTREAM SVR MCS ACRS SRN              
MN AND NRN IA. AT LEAST SHRT TERM RUC INDICATIONS ALG W/06Z 12KM NAM            
PAINTING A REASONABLY SOLID FCST SCENARIO INTO THIS AFTN AND MORESO             
THIS EVENING. LTL TO WORRY ABT EARLY ON W/RAPIDLY DECAYING CONV                 
CLUSTER OVR CNTRL INDIANA W/HIGH CLD SHIELD ERODING QUICKLY AND                 
WHICH SHLD GIVE WAY TO SCT CU BY MID AM. HWVR BEYOND THAT...ATTN                
TURNS WWD W/INCOMING MCV AND ASSOCD COUPLED OFB/GRAVITY WAVE PACKET.            
WOULD SUSPECT CONVN TO MAINTAIN N OF SFC BNDRY AS GRAVITY WAVE CONTS            
PROPAGATING EWD ALG SFC BNDRY AND IN AGREEMENT W/09Z RUC. ENHANCED              
MID LVL MESOSCALE SW HANDLED SIMILARLY W/INCREASING DOWNSTREAM LL               
WIND RESPONSE XPCD AND GIVEN PRESENCE OF STG THETA-E GRADIENT                   
IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM OVR IL...SOME QN REMAINS ON HOW EARLY CONV                 
DVLPMNT MAY OCCUR HERE. EARLIER LOOKING BTR AND W/12Z TAF ISSUANCE              
HAVE INSERTED TEMPO THUNDER FM 23Z/SBN TO 01Z/FWA TO START. THIS                
ALREADY ACCOUNTED FOR IN ZONE TIMING ALTHOUGH IMPLIED CHC LOOKING               
GREATER TWD EVENING THEN CURRENTLY SUGGESTED. OTHERWISE POST OUTFLW             
PRESTORM DESTABILIZATION SIGNAL VERY MIXED W/09Z RUC INDICATION WELL            
N AND E OF 06Z NAM. THIS QUITE TROUBLING GIVEN INHERENT SVR                     
POTENTIAL INADV OF MCV INDUCED MID LVL WIND MAX AND POTENTIAL FOR               
NEARBY OFB TO MIX NEWD THIS AFTN. WILL AWAIT 12Z DATA FOR BTR                   
CONSENSUS.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
MORE QN/S THEN ANSWERS THIS AM. SADLY...BULK OF CWA GETTING SPLIT BY            
CONVN W/VRY IMPRESSIVE CLUSTER OVR NE IL ATTM AND RIGHT WHERE GFS               
INDICATED LAST NIGHT. OF NOTE IS DEEP OFB ANCHORED UPSTREAM W/LLJ               
ALIGNMENT INTO IT OVR IL WHICH SUGGESTS THIS CLUSTER WILL CONT FOR              
SOME TIME THIS AM AS IT DIVES SEWD INTO WRN INDIANA. OF GREATER                 
INTEREST IS MATURE SEVERE MCS ACRS NE NEB W/APPARENT WAKE LOW BEHIND            
IT. 00Z GUIDANCE SEEMS TO CAPTURE THE DVLPMNT OF THIS FTR TO SOME               
DEGREE BUT DETAIL RESOLUTION EXPECTANTLY POOR AND NOD TWD TIMING                
ARRIVAL OF UPSTREAM MCV GIVEN TWD 06Z RUC/12KM NAM. ATTM DOUBT OFB              
WILL MOVE IF AT ALL AND LIKELY FOCUS SFC BASED DVLPMNT THIS AFTN                
WELL W ACRS IL. HWVR THAT SAID...OUTFLW BUBBLE IN PLACE INADV OF                
EJECTING NEB RIDGE RIDER VRY WELL COULD FIRE ELEVATED CONVN OVRTOP              
CWA LT THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT AS MCV ENHANCED LLJ DVLPS W/STG                    
ELEVATED THETA-E FLUX INTO ESP NRN INDIANA OVERNIGHT AND WHICH FITS             
WITHIN GOING GFS/NAM/RUC SOLUTIONS ALTHOUGH GFS LOOKS TOO FAR N                 
OVERNIGHT. 06Z 12KM NAM LOOKS EXCEEDINGLY WELL AND WILL FOLLOW                  
CLOSELY FOR LT THIS AFTN/OVERNIGHT.                                             
OTHERWISE...LLJ SEGMENT ACRS IL LOOKS TO WKN LTR THIS AM AND SHLD               
RESULT IN RAPID DECAY OF ONGOING MCS AND CLOUD DEBRIS BY MID/LATE AM.           
THUS PROGGED INSOLATION WITHIN A BIT WARMER THERMAL RIDGE THEN YDA              
SHLD EQUATE TO LOW 90S FOR MOST.                                                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
NOT MUCH GOING ON IN THE FRIDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THE BIGGEST            
THING IS A FRONT AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW THE TIMING            
IS TO HAVE THE COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO               
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND                   
SATURDAY. SUNDAY MODELS ARE DIFFERING SOMEWHAT. GFS80 HAS A LOW                 
MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH QUEBEC SUNDAY WITH A TROUGH DOWN INTO                   
MICHIGAN AND HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. DGEX HAS SUNDAY            
WET AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND THEN IT MOVES THAT LOW                   
NORTHEAST WHILE BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY                   
NIGHT. THEN HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY. ECMWF HAS HIGH PRESSURE IN                
PLACE FOR SUNDAY. THE CANADIAN MODEL'S STORY FOR SUNDAY IS A LOW IN             
WISCONSIN WITH A WARM FRONT TO THE EAST OF US AND KEEPING SUNDAY                
DRY. THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY HAS BEEN DRY AND WITH JUST THE DGEX                
SHOWING RAIN WITH A DIFFERING SCENARIO THAN OTHER MODELS, HAVE KEPT             
SUNDAY DRY. THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THAT                 
FRONT PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN JUST EXPECTING                 
TEMPERATURES TO REACH TO UP AROUND 80 FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY.                       
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HOLSTEN                                                   
LONG TERM...LOTHAMER                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
253 AM EST THU JUL 21 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
MORE QN/S THEN ANSWERS THIS AM. SADLY...BULK OF CWA GETTING SPLIT BY            
CONVN W/VRY IMPRESSIVE CLUSTER OVR NE IL ATTM AND RIGHT WHERE GFS               
INDICATED LAST NIGHT. OF NOTE IS DEEP OFB ANCHORED UPSTREAM W/LLJ               
ALIGNMENT INTO IT OVR IL WHICH SUGGESTS THIS CLUSTER WILL CONT FOR              
SOME TIME THIS AM AS IT DIVES SEWD INTO WRN INDIANA. OF GREATER                 
INTEREST IS MATURE SEVERE MCS ACRS NE NEB W/APPARENT WAKE LOW BEHIND            
IT. 00Z GUIDANCE SEEMS TO CAPTURE THE DVLPMNT OF THIS FTR TO SOME               
DEGREE BUT DETAIL RESOLUTION EXPECTANTLY POOR AND NOD TWD TIMING                
ARRIVAL OF UPSTREAM MCV GIVEN TWD 06Z RUC/12KM NAM. ATTM DOUBT OFB              
WILL MOVE IF AT ALL AND LIKELY FOCUS SFC BASED DVLPMNT THIS AFTN                
WELL W ACRS IL. HWVR THAT SAID...OUTFLW BUBBLE IN PLACE INADV OF                
EJECTING NEB RIDGE RIDER VRY WELL COULD FIRE ELEVATED CONVN OVRTOP              
CWA LT THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT AS MCV ENHANCED LLJ DVLPS W/STG                    
ELEVATED THETA-E FLUX INTO ESP NRN INDIANA OVERNIGHT AND WHICH FITS             
WITHIN GOING GFS/NAM/RUC SOLUTIONS ALTHOUGH GFS LOOKS TOO FAR N                 
OVERNIGHT. 06Z 12KM NAM LOOKS EXCEEDINGLY WELL AND WILL FOLLOW                  
CLOSELY FOR LT THIS AFTN/OVERNIGHT.                                             
OTHERWISE...LLJ SEGMENT ACRS IL LOOKS TO WKN LTR THIS AM AND SHLD               
RESULT IN RAPID DECAY OF ONGOING MCS AND CLOUD DEBRIS BY MID/LATE AM.           
THUS PROGGED INSOLATION WITHIN A BIT WARMER THERMAL RIDGE THEN YDA              
SHLD EQUATE TO LOW 90S FOR MOST.                                                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
NOT MUCH GOING ON IN THE FRIDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THE BIGGEST            
THING IS A FRONT AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW THE TIMING            
IS TO HAVE THE COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO               
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND                   
SATURDAY. SUNDAY MODELS ARE DIFFERING SOMEWHAT. GFS80 HAS A LOW                 
MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH QUEBEC SUNDAY WITH A TROUGH DOWN INTO                   
MICHIGAN AND HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. DGEX HAS SUNDAY            
WET AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND THEN IT MOVES THAT LOW                   
NORTHEAST WHILE BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY                   
NIGHT. THEN HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY. ECMWF HAS HIGH PRESSURE IN                
PLACE FOR SUNDAY. THE CANADIAN MODEL'S STORY FOR SUNDAY IS A LOW IN             
WISCONSIN WITH A WARM FRONT TO THE EAST OF US AND KEEPING SUNDAY                
DRY. THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY HAS BEEN DRY AND WITH JUST THE DGEX                
SHOWING RAIN WITH A DIFFERING SCENARIO THAN OTHER MODELS, HAVE KEPT             
SUNDAY DRY. THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THAT                 
FRONT PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN JUST EXPECTING                 
TEMPERATURES TO REACH TO UP AROUND 80 FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY.                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
DIFFICULT TAF CYCLE THIS AM W/CONVN SPLITTING CWA ATTM. MBE ELEMENT             
ANCHORED OVR NE IL RIGHT WHERE GFS SAID IT WOULD LAST NIGHT AND SHLD            
KEEP FOCUS FOR ADDNL DVLPMNT W OF TAF SITES REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.             
PRIMARY EARLY PROBLEM WILL BE PENCHANT FOR MVFR VSBY REDUCTION TWD              
DAYBREAK AS PRIOR SHIFT HAD ELUDED TO AND LEFT INTACT FOR THIS CYCLE            
ALTHOUGH MID/HIGH CLD SHIELD WILL LIKELY NOT ERODE SUFFICIENTLY TO              
PROMOTE LWR END.                                                                
OTHERWISE SITUATION LT THIS AFTN AND EVENING VEXING W/CONFLICTING               
MODEL SIGNALS AND SVR MCS OVR NE. WILL PROB30 SBN FOR NOW                       
W/CONFIDENCE QUITE LOW.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HOLSTEN                                                   
LONG TERM...LOTHAMER                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
340 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR                
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.                                   
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/ETA SHOWING A NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE            
NORTHERN CONUS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAK DIP OVER THE NORTHEAST            
ATLANTIC STATES. A RATHER BROAD RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST                  
AND SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS               
AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS SHORTWAVE HAS GENERATING NUMEROUS                  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FRONT               
WHICH RUNS FROM EASTERN QUEBEC...THROUGH THE CENTRAL LOWER                      
MICHIGAN...INTO KANSAS.                                                         
THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES TONIGHT. A             
WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAVELING ALONG THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SLIDE ACROSS             
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. ETA/GFS FORECAST SOUNDING                 
SHOW A MOIST LAYER AROUND 650MB...OTHERWISE...FAIRLY DRY. BOTH                  
MODELS SHOW THAT IT WILL DRY BELOW 700MB AND ABOVE 600 MB. THERE IS             
POTENTIAL FOR AC TO DEVELOP AROUND 10K FEET. IN SPITE OF THE                    
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH                  
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ANY RAIN. SO DROP SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE             
FORECAST TONIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN               
HIGH PLAINS...AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN                   
PLAINS.                                                                         
A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN CONJUNCTIONS WITH              
THE SURFACE LOW WILL HELP TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.              
THE SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT INTO WESTERN DAKOTAS. ETA/GFS             
DEPICT AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE LEVELS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM.              
THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY INTO             
THE FORECAST AREA AS THE COLD FRONT RACES INTO THE MINNESOTA.                   
ETA/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS BELOW                  
700MB. THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN IS DIMINISHING. SHOWERS WILL BE                  
POSSIBLE BUT IT WILL MOST LIKELY HAVE TO SATURATE OUT THE LOW LEVEL             
FIRST. PLAN TO LEAVE SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST BUT LOWER THE POPS AT              
THIS TIME.                                                                      
MODELS ARE NOT VERY CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN. THE ENSEMBLE AND THE            
GLOBAL DON'T SEEM TO DISAGREE IN THE EXTENDED EITHER. THE 00Z GFS               
AND ECMWF ARE IN CLOSER ALIGNMENT THAN THE 06Z GFS. THERE DOES SEEM             
TO BE MORE AGREE WITH THE ETA AS WELL. PLAN TO FAVOR THE 00Z GFS                
HOWEVER...DO NOT HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE MODEL.                         
THE SHORTWAVE WILL RACE OFF TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT IN            
THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW...AS THE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CHASES IT THROUGH                
CENTRAL ONTARIO. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO NEW ENGLAND AS               
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO             
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND A WARM FRONT               
INTO WISCONSIN. MOISTURE OVER RUNNING THESE FRONT ALONG WITH                    
AVAILABLE MOISTURE SHOULD GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.              
THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY AND             
SHOULD DRY OUT CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.            
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL                
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE START TO             
MOVES INTO WESTERN ONTARIO. THE COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE THE                    
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AS A 1022MB RIDGE PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL              
PLAINS. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH                 
THURSDAY.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DLG                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
400 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SFC FRONT IS INTO E UPR MI ATTM WITH ONLY A FEW SCT MID CLOUDS ALONG            
IT. OTHER THAN A VERY ISOLD STRONG CELL IN NEARSHORE WATERS OFF BIG             
BAY LATE YDY AFTN AND ANOTHER CELL THAT POPPED UP COUPLE HOURS AGO N            
OF SSM...THERE WAS NO CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. PCPN OVR SCNTRL UPR           
MI LATE YDY MORNING INTO THE AFTN WAS LEFTOVERS FM MCS THAT CAME E              
OUT OF CNTRL MN YDY MORNING. A QUARTER OF AN INCH AROUND MENOMINEE              
COUNTY...OTHERWISE NO PCPN OVR CWA. LACKING DEEP MOISTURE ALONG THE             
FRONT AND STABILIZATION FM THE MORNING MCS TO THE SOUTH SEEMED TO BE            
MAIN LIMITING FACTORS FOR PCPN.                                                 
MOVING ON...LOOKING FOR THAT NEXT CHANCE OF MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.               
PRIMARY SHORTWAVE THAT PRODUCED THE CONVECTION IS NOW INTO CNTRL                
LAKES WITH SHARP DRYING PROHIBITING ANY PCPN ALONG SFC FRONT AS IT              
PASSES THROUGH. CLUSTER OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOME ECHOES ARE                 
PROGRESSING W TO E ACROSS WI...BUT THESE SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE               
AREA. NEXT SHORTWAVE OF CONCERN IS OVR CNTRL ALBERTA WHICH WILL                 
SHIFT ACROSS UPR LAKES LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HOT RIDGE REMAINS              
OVR W CONUS WITH H5 CENTER OVR GRAND JUNCTION CO PER 00Z ROABS.                 
LARGE AREA OF HIGH TEMPS OVR 100 DEGREES YDY OVR SW CONUS INTO CNTRL            
PLAINS.                                                                         
HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY RISE TODAY WITH HIGH PRES OVR CNTRL CANADA AND N               
PLAINS SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION. NNW FLOW PREVAILS AT SFC-H85 THIS             
AFTN WHICH SHOULD KEEP N TIER OF CWA MUCH COOLER THAN YDY WITH FLOW             
OFF LK SUPERIOR. H85 TEMPS AROUND +10C OVR N LK SUPERIOR TO +14C OVR            
WI BORDER SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 70 BY THE SHORE...TO LOW 80S ALONG               
WISCONSIN AND NEAR LK MI AS N WINDS ARE OFFSHORE. ALBERTA SHORTWAVE             
SHOULD BE VCNTY OF LK WINNEPEG BY THIS EVENING THEN REACH N LK                  
SUPERIOR BY DAYBREAK FRI. LAST NIGHT IT APPEARED THAT THIS SHORTWAVE            
WOULD COMBINE WITH INCREASING SWRLY LLJ AND MOISTURE ADVECTION TO               
SPUR ON A ROUND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION. HOWEVER...BEGINNING WITH 18Z            
RUN OF GFS YDY...MODELS HAVE SHARPLY TRENDED AWAY FM THAT                       
SOLN...WITH PRIMARY LLJ NOW PROGGED WELL TO THE WEST IN THE                     
DAKOTAS...CLOSER TO THE VERY WARM DAYTIME TEMPS. SINCE LLJ LOCATION             
CAN BE TIED TO AMOUNT OF DAYTIME HEATING...IT MAKES SENSE THAT                  
WITHOUT A VERY STRONG SHORTWAVE BEST LLJ WOULD BE WELL TO THE WEST.             
MODEL QPF IS GENERALLY NIL FOR THE 06Z FRI-18Z FRI PERIOD...WHEREAS             
BEFORE AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO 1.00 WERE COMMON ACROSS AT LEAST PARTS OF              
UPR MI. FOR NOW...WILL TREND TOWARD NO PCPN...KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE             
POPS. IF TRENDS CONTINUE...LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL REMAIN DRY.            
PRESSURES WILL RISE AGAIN BY FRIDAY AFTN AND WINDS SHOULD BECOME                
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND ONSHORE. H85 TEMPS AROUND +12C ON AVERAGE                
SUPPORT TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S...WITH A FEW 80S NEAR THE WI BORDER.            
MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS OFF GFS/NAM WITH TEMPS IN LWR 80S AND               
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S YIELD CAPES BTWN 500-1000J/KG WITH NO CIN.             
NAM INDICATES PCPN COULD OCCUR OVR INTERIOR WITH LL CONVERGENCE IN              
AFTN DUE TO LK BREEZES...BUT WITH NEUTRAL TO ONLY WEAK POSITIVE                 
DYNAMICS FOR LIFT AND BEST MOISTURE RETURN FARTHER WEST PER H85                 
THETA-E ADVECTION...WILL SIDE WITH DRY CANADIAN/GFS/RUC 13 SOLN                 
ATTM.                                                                           
MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE SAT/SAT NIGHT FCST BASED ON LATEST TRENDS              
OFF 00Z MODELS. NAM/GFS BOTH INDICATE GOOD SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT             
DEVELOPS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AM ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE              
ADVECTION. NOSE OF H85 JET IS MAINLY OVR MN LATE FRI NIGHT SO KEPT              
POPS OUT FOR FRI NIGHT AS MOST CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF UPR             
MI. AS H85 JET VEERS WSW SAT MORNING SOME SHRA/TS COULD PUSH INTO W             
UPR MI AS ELEVATED CAPES ARE BTWN 500-1000J/KG AND H85-H7 LAPSE                 
RATES RISE ABOVE 6.5C/KM. GFS/CANADIAN NOT AS BULLISH IN DRIVING PCPN           
E ON SAT SO ONLY ADDED POPS FOR W HALF OF CWA ATTM. INCREASED TEMPS             
AS S FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL LIMIT BULK OF LAKE                
COOLING TO ALONG LK MI.                                                         
BY SAT NIGHT...VERY GOOD AGREEMENT EMERGING WITH RESPECT TO PCPN                
CHANCES ALONG WARM FRONT THAT SHIFTS ACROSS CWA AS H85 TROUGH ALONG             
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION AFFECTS THE UPR LAKES.                       
CONSIDERING BACK TO A FEW DAYS AGO THIS HAS BEEN PERIOD FAVORED FOR             
PCPN...CONFIDENCE IS GROWING ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS TO HIGH CHANCE.            
DRY SHORT TERM DROUGHT PATTERN WE HAVE SEEN ACROSS CNTRL/ERN ZONES              
LAST FEW WEEKS SHOULD PROHIBIT ANY MENTION OF LIKELY POPS IN                    
ITSELF...BUT THIS MAY BE AN EVENT WHERE AT LEAST A PERIOD OF                    
RAINFALL SEEMS LIKELY...EVEN IF IT MAY NOT LAST MORE THAN A FEW                 
HOURS WITH WARM FRONT PASSAGE. UKMET/GFS HINT AT WAVE RIDING NE                 
ALONG BOUNDARY WHICH WOULD DEFINETELY BOOST PCPN CHANCES SAT NIGHT              
FOR CNTRL/ERN ZONES. ONCE FRONT AND PCPN EXITS E CWA LATER SUN...A              
NW FLOW DEVELOPS BY AFTN AND WITH H85 TEMPS NEARING +20C...A VERY               
WARM AFTN MAY BE IN STORE. INCREASED TEMPS INTO THE UPR 80S FOR NOW.            
A FEW LWR 90S ARE FEASIBLE IF PCPN CLOUDS ARE OUT OF HERE FAIRLY                
QUICK ON SUN MORNING AS GFS INDICATES.                                          
NO CHANGES WERE MADE BEYOND SUN. PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT IS TRYING TO             
CHANGE TO ONE WITH MUCH LOWER HEIGHTS ALONG N TIER...INCLUDING UPR              
LAKES. STILL SOME TIMING/PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES TO SORT OUT WITH                 
ADVANCING LOW PRES FM PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK SO DID NOT ADD ANY POPS            
TO TUE FCST ATTM DESPITE LATEST PROGS FM ECMWF/UKMET WHICH SUGGEST              
OTHERWISE.                                                                      
COORD WITH APX AND GRB...THANKS.                                                
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JLA                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
320 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING OVER ND IN AREA OF LAYER (850-700) WARM                    
ADVECTION WHICH IS TAKEN MAINLY BY 18Z RUC INTO WESTERN HALF OF CWA             
TONIGHT. NOT REAL STRONG SO WILL NOT RAISE THE CURRENT LOW POPS BUT             
EXPAND A LITTLE TO SOUTH. SOME WEAK QG FORCING TRANSLATES THROUGH               
CENTRAL MN INTO THE SOUTH FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE VERY STRONG WARM            
ADVECTION MOVING IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY..WITH GFS THE                 
SLOWER AND COOLER MODEL.  ECMWF MORE IN LINE WITH ETA ON WARM AIR               
COMING IN AND THIS IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH WITH WARM ENSEMBLE 850               
TEMP ANOMS LAST FEW DAYS. WITH 100-500 THICKNESS AROUND 588 WILL                
FORECAST SOME UPPER 90S IN SW ZONES. BEFORE THAT..THERE COULD BE                
SOME STRONG STORMS THROUGH PARTS OF CENTRAL OR SOUTH CENTRAL MN..AND            
MAYBE W CENTRAL WI ON EDGE OF ADVANCING VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS.              
THIS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC FOR MAX TEMPS IF CLOUDS DONT CLEAR OUT.               
SUNDAY STILL LOOKS WARM WITH COOL FRONT NOT MOVING VERY FAR SOUTH.              
HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP SUNDAY DRY...BUT UPPER JET BECOMES FAVORABLE               
FOR SOME DECENT DIV SUNDAY AFTERNOON.                                           
LONGER TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE                
LATEST GFS MODEL CONTINUES TO FORECAST AN UNSETTLED 50H WESTERLY                
AIRFLOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  WL HAVE TO                
KEEP SOME POPS GOING THRU MONDAY NIGHT AFTERWARD...SURFACE HIGH                 
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...PROVIDING QUIET                  
PERIOD WITH TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER OVER THE AREA.                          
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.MN...NONE.                                                                     
.WI...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JPR/JVM                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
855 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS AND ARE ALREADY SENT. HAVE                
UPPED POPS EVERYWHERE AS FEATURES ON SATELLITE AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW            
REAL GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS A FEATURE VERY NOTICEABLE ON WV IS                
ENHANCING THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. PWS GREATER THAN 2" NOTED ON SNDG               
AND WITH A H5 SHEAR AXIS OVER THE AREA BELIEVE THAT THERE IS A GOOD             
SHOT AT GETTING WIDESPREAD SHRA AND TSRA ESPECIALLY AROUND THE I 20             
CORRIDOR AND A BETTER CHANCE THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST ACROSS THE                  
NORTHWEST. THIS ALSO HAS LED TO LOWERING TODAYS HIGHS INTO THE LOWER            
90S EVERYWHERE AS CONVECTION SHOULD START TO POP EARLY AND OVERALL              
CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE AREA OUT OF THE MID 90S. /CAB/               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE                   
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS. FORECAST DIFFICULTY IN THE SHORT TERM               
REGARDS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH...AND              
MIGRATION OF THIS ENERGY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MEAN MID LEVEL RIDGE             
AXIS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WAS LIMITED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON OVER MUCH             
OF THE FORECAST AREA BECAUSE OF A SFC-850MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR                  
JACKSON. MODELS SUGGEST THIS FEATURE WILL BE DISPLACED FARTHER WEST             
TODAY AND THEY GENERATE MORE QPF AS A RESULT. WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS            
FORECAST THINKING WITH LIKELY POPS FAR EASTERN ZONES WHERE THE MID              
LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD HAVE LESS INFLUENCE AND PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED                 
SHORTWAVE ENERGY COULD HAVE MORE IMPACT. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED                  
SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON DESPITE A SEEMINGLY               
OVERWHELMING RIDGE PRESENCE. A PRECIPITABLE WATER AIRMASS IN EXCESS             
OF TWO INCHES AND LACK OF CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD PROMOTE AN EARLY             
ONSET OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. AN EXPANSIVE CUMULUS FIELD TODAY             
WILL LIMIT HEATING ENOUGH TO KEEP CONDITIONS FROM BECOMING  OVER                
OPPRESSIVE...BUT HEAT INDICES COULD STILL REACH 105 IN A FEW                    
LOCATIONS. BY FRIDAY...A MORE DISTINCT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY                
WILL ROTATE SOUTHWARD AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE CENTER OF THE                 
STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL HIGH. MODELS SUGGEST GREATER INHIBITION               
WILL DEVELOP AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS A BIT TO THE EAST AND THIS SHOULD              
SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH...WHILE                  
ALLOWING HOTTER TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE "DELTA" REGION.              
WE WILL HOLD OFF ON A HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS POINT AS TODAY'S                    
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE A LOT TO SAY ABOUT GROUND                    
MOISTURE AND FRIDAY'S TEMPERATURES. /EC/                                        
THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RIGHT ON INTO THE                 
WEEKEND...BRINGING TO MIND A SONG FROM THE 1980S.  THE CENTER OF AN             
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BUILDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS             
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY.  WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES                
EXPECTED TO INCREASE (MAYBE 22 DEGREES CELSIUS)...AND 1000-500 MB               
THICKNII VALUES FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL...HIGH TEMPERATURES                 
SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD HAVE VERY FEW PROBLEMS RISING TO THE                  
WARMEST VALUES SEEN SO FAR THIS SUMMER.  IN FACT...I SUSPECT THAT               
THESE TEMPERATURES MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN WHAT IS                   
CURRENTLY FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IN THE DELTA.  CONSIDERING DEWPOINTS            
IN THE MIDDLE 70S...WE COULD BE FLIRTING WITH EXCESSIVE HEAT                    
CRITERIA.  KEEPING ALL OF THIS IN MIND... HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY            
AFTERNOON WILL BE NUDGED UPWARD A TOUCH AND HEAT WORDING WILL BE                
MAINTAINED IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  SO...ARE YOU              
FEELING "HOT...HOT...HOT"?                                                      
IF THAT WASN'T ENOUGH TO WORRY ABOUT...THERE COULD BE SOME WEAK                 
SURFACE TROUGHINESS HANGING AROUND OUR AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH             
BOUNDARY LAYER THETA-E VALUES IN THE UPPER 340K RANGE.  THESE TWO               
FEATURES COULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING              
THE AFTERNOON HEAT.  INCREASED RIDGING AND HIGHER 700 MB                        
TEMPERATURES SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE                      
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES/PARISHES.  OVER THE              
SOUTHEASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES THOUGH...IT COULD BE A DIFFERENT                  
STORY.  THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE "TROUGH" COMBINED WITH SLIGHTLY            
COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES COULD ALLOW A SCATTERING OF                       
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON.  WITH ALL OF THE INSTABILITY...I'M NOT              
SURE ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.                   
RATHER MARGINAL WIND SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 3 (AS WELL            
AS 6) KM SUGGEST THAT THESE STORMS MAY BE VERY "PULSEY" IN NATURE.              
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHOULD CONTINUE SLIDING OFF TO OUR EAST              
AND SOUTHEAST FROM SUNDAY ONWARD.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW THE                
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO AGAIN COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A                 
SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE GULF BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  WITH MODERATING               
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND THICKNII VALUES...WE SHOULD SEE                 
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES (RELATIVELY SPEAKING OF COURSE) HEADING            
INTO MONDAY.                                                                    
IN WAKE OF THE RIDGE...IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM             
WILL TRY AND PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY                
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  IF THIS PANS OUT...SHOWER AND                  
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.             
BUT UNTIL I CAN SEE SOME SORT OF DISCERNIBLE TREND...I DON'T PLAN ON            
CHANGING MUCH THIS FAR OUT. /#10/                                               
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CAB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ms                                                           


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                            
338 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
COUPLE OF ITEMS OF INTEREST FOR THIS PACKAGE.  FIRST...WHAT'S THE               
CONVECTION OVER NORTHWEST MISSOURI GOING TO DO THIS EVENING.  NONE              
OF THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS CONVECTION WELL AT ALL...AND SO ARE             
OF LITTLE HELP FOR THIS FORECAST.  THE RUC IS SHOWING THE CLOSEST               
THING TO REALITY WITH ONLY A TINY BIT OF QPF...AND THE SHOWERS ARE              
LOOK TO BE BLOSSOMING INTO REAL THUNDERSTORMS.  A RUC SOUNDING FOR              
THE GENERAL AREA WHERE THE STORMS ARE FORMING IS SHOWING THE LOW                
LEVEL LID MIXING OUT TOTALLY BY 22Z WHERE THE STORMS COULD TAP                  
JUICY SURFACE AIR.  RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW NEARLY 6000 J/KG OF CAPE FOR             
STORMS TO FEED ON...SO SOME PRETTY HEFTY STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE.              
GOING TO GO AHEAD AND STICK IN SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR                 
CENTRAL MISSOURI AND FADE IT BACK TO CHANCE FOR STORMS ACROSS THE               
REST OF THE AREA TONIGHT.                                                       
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY HEAT              
AND HUMIDITY.  6000 METER 500MB RIDGE IS EXPANDING OUT OF THE                   
PLAINS INTO THE MID-WEST AND 850MB TEMPS ARE RESPONDING.  BOTH THE              
GFS AND NAM ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN 850MB THERMAL                  
RIDGE PUSHING UP INTO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS.  HEAT INDEX                 
READINGS TODAY HAVE EASILY HIT ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE AREA...             
AND I EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THRU THE WEEKEND.  THE ONE FLY IN THE             
OINTMENT IS A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY UP IN IOWA WHICH IS                     
FORECAST TO ACTUALLY BECOME MOBILE LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AND                
PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA TOMORROW.             
THIS COULD HAVE JUST ENOUGH RELATIVELY COOL AIR BEHIND IT TO KEEP               
US FROM REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON FRIDAY ACROSS EASTERN                
MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...BUT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY STILL                 
LOOK PLENTY HOT.  WHILE MY CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA              
TOMORROW...I FEEL IT WOULD BE A DISSERVICE TO PULL THE EXCESSIVE                
HEAT WARNING FOR ONE DAY.  WILL THEREFORE KEEP OUR WARNING GOING                
THRU 7 PM SUNDAY.                                                               
EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS LIKE WE COULD HAVE A FROPA LATE                         
TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD BREAK THE HEAT.                   
EXTENDED RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT SO HAVE KEPT POPS             
FOR THAT PERIOD GOING...AND HAVE PULLED DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DOWN OUT           
OF THE 90S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.                                          
&&                                                                              
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY FOR AUDRAIN...BOONE...            
     CALLAWAY...COLE...CRAWFORD...FRANKLIN...GASCONADE...IRON...                
     JEFFERSON...KNOX...LEWIS...LINCOLN...MADISON...MARION...                   
     MONITEAU...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...OSAGE...PIKE...RALLS...                   
     REYNOLDS...SHELBY...ST. CHARLES...ST. FRANCOIS...                          
     ST. LOUIS...ST. LOUIS CITY...STE. GENEVIEVE...WARREN...                    
     AND WASHINGTON.                                                            
IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY FOR ADAMS IL...                   
     BOND IL...BROWN IL...CALHOUN IL...CLINTON IL...FAYETTE IL...               
     GREENE IL...JERSEY IL...MACOUPIN IL...MADISON IL...                        
     MARION IL...MONROE IL...MONTGOMERY IL...PIKE IL...                         
     RANDOLPH IL...ST. CLAIR IL...AND WASHINGTON IL.                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CARNEY                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                            
130 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISOLATED SHRA HAVE RECENTLY DVLPD OVR NWRN MO WHERE LATEST RUC ANLYS            
SHOWING STG 850 MB MOISTURE CNVG.  MORE ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD                
CONVECTION OVR NERN IL ATTM.  OUTFLOW BNDRY FM THIS MCS MAY MOV SWWD            
INTO THE E-NERN PTN OF THE CWA LTR THIS MRNG AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR            
CONVECTION THIS AFTN.  VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVR ERN SD WL MOV SEWD                
THRU IA INTO NWRN IL BY 00Z FRI HELPING TO DESTABILIZE THE                      
ATMOSPHERE OVR THE NERN PTN OF THE CWA THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVNG.                
SFC CDFNT WILL ALSO BE SAGGING SWD INTO NRN MO BY 00Z FRI.                      
ETA...NAM MDL SHOWING PLENTY OF INSTABILITY OVR THE CWA THIS AFTN               
WITH HIGHEST K INDICES OF 43 TO 47 OVR THE NRN AND ERN PTN OF THE               
CWA ARND 00Z FRI.  LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE RELATIVELY STG CAP OVR               
THE WRN PTN OF THE CWA WITH MDLS DEPICTING 700 MB TEMPS OF 12-14                
DGRS C THIS AFTN.  PLAN TO INCLUDE LOW POPS MAINLY THIS AFTN AND                
EVNG OVR THE NRN AND ERN PTN OF THE CWA WITH A DRY FCST OVR THE SWRN            
PTN OF THE CWA.  WILL CONT EXCESSIVE HT WRNG TDA THRU SUN WITH THIS             
AFTNS MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH PTNS OF N-NERN MO               
MAY BE A COUPLE OF DGRS COOLER DUE TO CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS LTR              
THIS MRNG INTO THIS AFTN.  MAX TEMPS MAY BE A TAD COOLER ON FRI WITH            
CDFNT SAGGING SWD INTO SERN MO BY 00Z SAT PER GFS.  ETA...NAM APRS              
TOO FAR S WITH CDFNT BY THIS TIME.  ALTHOUGH SFC WNDS WL BE OUT OF              
THE N-NE ON FRI...MID-UPR LVL PATTERN STILL LOOKS VRY WRM WITH 597              
DM HGTS OVR WRN MO AT 500 MB AND LTL POTENTIAL FOR ANY CONVECTION.              
THIS MID-UPR LVL RDG WL CONT TO BLD EWD INTO THE AREA INTO THE                  
WEEKEND WITH LTL CHC OF CONVECTION...AND HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS               
CONTINUING.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 7 AM TODAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY FOR                  
     AUDRAIN...BOONE...CALLAWAY...COLE...CRAWFORD...FRANKLIN...                 
     GASCONADE...IRON...JEFFERSON...KNOX...LEWIS...LINCOLN...                   
     MADISON...MARION...MONITEAU...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...OSAGE...               
     PIKE...RALLS...REYNOLDS...SHELBY...ST. CHARLES...                          
     ST. FRANCOIS...ST. LOUIS...ST. LOUIS CITY...                               
     STE. GENEVIEVE...WARREN...AND WASHINGTON.                                  
IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 7 AM TODAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY FOR                  
     ADAMS IL...BOND IL...BROWN IL...CALHOUN IL...CLINTON IL...                 
     FAYETTE IL...GREENE IL...JERSEY IL...MACOUPIN IL...                        
     MADISON IL...MARION IL...MONROE IL...MONTGOMERY IL...                      
     PIKE IL...RANDOLPH IL...ST. CLAIR IL...AND WASHINGTON IL.                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GKS                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT                                            
937 AM MDT THU JUL 21 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...                                          
WILL UPDATE ZFP TO REMOVE POPS IN SE AND RAISE MAXES A FEW                      
DEGREES. NO UPDATE TO WRKAFP. RUC HAD GOOD HANDLE ON SHORTWAVE                  
OVER NE MT THIS MORNING. FEATURE WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR OVERNIGHT                  
STORMS IN NE MT. A STORM FORMED JUST NE OF FALLON COUNTY THIS                   
MORNING BUT HAS SINCE MOVED INTO ND. SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO MOVE                 
INTO ND AROUND 16Z. SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS                  
MORNING AND LACK OF CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS               
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER REGION. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM                   
CANADIAN BORDER BUT MAIN EFFECT WILL BE SHIFT TO MORE NE WINDS                  
OVER THE EAST. TEMPS WERE RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN                   
YESTERDAY MORNING. UNDER FULL SUN...EXPECT QUICK RISE AND GOOD                  
MIXING SO WENT AHEAD AND RAISED TEMPS CLOSER TO 00Z MET GUIDANCE.               
DESPITE GOOD MIXING TODAY...WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY                       
STRONG...SO FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS NOT NEEDED FOR THE AFTERNOON.               
FIRE WX WATCH IN GOOD SHAPE FOR FRIDAY. WILL LOOK CLOSER AT                     
DETAILS WITH NEW MODEL RUNS THIS AFTERNOON. ARTHUR                              
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...                           
QUICK AND DIRTY SUMMARY...INHERITED FORECAST TEMPS IN GOOD SHAPE                
AND MADE LITTLE CHANGES EXCEPT TO COOL TUE DOWN A BIT MORE. MAIN                
CHANGE THIS PACKAGE WAS TO EXTEND POPS INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY                   
NIGHT AS SOME DYNAMICS AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE MAY STILL BE IN THE               
MIX.                                                                            
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DETAILS...WEAK COOL FRONT WILL PASS OVER                    
SOUTHERN MONTANA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY LEAVING NW SURFACE                   
FLOW IN ITS WAKE ALONG WITH A STABLE ATMOSPHERE. SLGHT CHC IN SW                
MTNS FOR LATE DAY INTO NIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES                   
OVER MONTANA SATURDAY NIGHT...THOUGH MAIN ENERGY STAYS NORTH SOME               
MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO BE PULLED INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA                
SUNDAY AND 850H TEMPS STILL AROUND 31C OVER THE AREA. SO WARM                   
ATMOSPHERE BUT CLOUD COVER WILL BE FACTOR. SO LOOKING FOR WARM                  
START TO SUNDAY WITH INCREASING POPS AFTN INTO EVENING AS SHALLOW               
TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSS REGION INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND               
MONDAY. INHERITED PACKAGE COVERS THIS WELL.                                     
MONDAY ONWARD DETAILS...GFS HINTING AT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVING                
ACROSS AREA WITH TROF AXIS AND MONSOON MOISTURE MAY CONT TO BE                  
INVOLVED...SO WILL CONT POPS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. DRYING                   
TREND GOING INTO TUESDAY REFLECTED IN INHERITED PACKAGE LOOKS                   
OKAY FOR NOW THOUGH MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY LINGER POPS EARLY                    
TUESDAY AS WE TRY TO NAIL TIMING DOWN BETTER. NORTHWEST FLOW THEN               
EXPECTED TUE INTO MID WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS ALONG                  
WEST COAST AND NW FLOW OVER SOUTHERN MONTANA. TUE SHOULD BE                     
COOLEST DAY OF WEEK WITH GRADUAL WARM UP INTO MID WEEK. ALWAYS                  
NEED TO BE WARY OF NORTHWEST FLOW AS SHORT WAVES CAN SNEAK UP IN                
THERE...AND MODELS NOT TERRIBLY CONSISTENT YET. SO CONFIDENCE IN                
WED THRU FRI A LITTLE SHAKY AT THIS TIME. TESAR                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY UNDER MAINLY CLEAR               
SKIES. ANOTHER COOL FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS                        
AFTERNOON ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20               
MPH. HOWEVER...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN                
DRY.  HOOLEY                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...                                                 
    TDY FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED                             
-------------------------------------------------------                         
BIL 095 061/097 065/094 059/092 061/086 059/082 057/089                         
    0/U 02/T    30/B    22/T    32/T    20/B    00/U                            
LVM 097 052/092 053/092 051/088 053/082 051/081 050/085                         
    0/U 02/T    30/B    23/T    32/T    20/U    00/U                            
HDN 096 061/099 064/096 059/094 060/088 059/089 057/091                         
    0/U 02/T    30/B    22/T    32/T    20/B    00/U                            
MLS 095 062/098 066/095 061/094 063/089 059/084 058/087                         
    0/U 02/T    20/B    12/T    32/T    10/B    00/U                            
4BQ 096 062/099 063/098 060/094 062/089 060/087 058/085                         
    0/U 02/T    20/B    12/T    33/T    20/B    00/U                            
BHK 092 055/094 061/093 059/091 061/086 058/081 057/082                         
    2/T 02/T    20/B    12/T    32/T    20/B    00/U                            
SHR 096 057/099 059/095 055/092 056/087 055/084 053/085                         
    0/U 02/T    30/B    24/T    32/T    30/B    00/U                            
&&                                                                              
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING TO FRIDAY                 
      EVENING FOR ZONES 28>42-56>58-63>68.                                      
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING TO FRIDAY                 
      EVENING FOR ZONE 98.                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   mt                                                           


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV                                           
1015 AM PDT THU JUL 21 2005                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA HAS ALLOWED                
MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO SWEEP INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE                
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST THE REST                 
OF THE WEEK...WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS              
AND SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FIVE TO TEN DEGREES LOWER FROM THE            
FIRST OF THE WEEK DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES.           
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALED CONSIDERABLE CLOUD                 
COVER ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY THIS            
MORNING. THERE APPEARED TO BE A WEAK CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE            
CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AND THE 12Z GFS AND NAM                   
INDICATE THIS WILL MOVE UP THROUGH LINCOLN COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON.               
ALSO NOTED DRYING AROUND 500 MB ON THE YUMA SOUNDING. ALTHOUGH THIS             
INITIALLY LOOKED SUSPICIOUS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED MID LEVEL              
DRYING WORKING UP THROUGH NORTHERN BAJA AND FAR SOUTHEAST                       
CALIFORNIA. SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOWER LEVELS ARE STILL PLENTY MOIST              
AND UNSTABLE WITH LITTLE TO NO CAP TODAY. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY               
DELAY ONSET OF CONVECTION BUT IT SHOULD NOT TAKE MUCH TO KICK OFF               
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WILL UPDATE TO REMOVE MORNING TRENDS AND LOWER             
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES IN SOME SPOTS DUE TO CLOUD COVER.                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...256 AM PDT...NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE TO PREVIOUS                
FORECAST REASONING. IN THE VERY SHORT TERM THIS MORNING I AM LOOKING            
AT A CLUSTER OF PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS IN YAVAPAI COUNTY THAT WILL            
SHORTLY MOVE INTO MOHAVE COUNTY. RUC AND NAM DEPICT INVERTED TROUGH             
AND VORT MAX ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE FOUR CORNERS             
HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM CLUSTER. MIGHT BE A BIT OVER DONE               
WITH THE QPF AND STRENGTH BUT STILL EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO PERSIST              
AS IT MOVES INTO MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR TO THE NORTH. HAVE UPPED                
POPS OVER MOHAVE AND CLARK COUNTIES THIS MORNING AS A RESULT.                   
OTHERWISE STILL LOOK FOR CONTINUED CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER THE                   
PRIMARILY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM WITH               
DIURNAL MAXIMUMS IN THE AFTERNOONS. MODELS CONSISTENT AND IN                    
AGREEMENT IN KEEPING MONSOON FLOW OVER THE AREA. FORECAST CAPE AND              
PW LOOK FAVORABLE AS WELL. REMNANTS OF EMILY WILL COME IN TO PLAY ON            
SATURDAY AND SEND ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. MAIN CONCERN             
WHEN THIS OCCURS IS THE FLOODING POTENTIAL IN WHAT WILL BE VERY                 
MOIST AIR.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...MORE MESSY WEATHER ON SUNDAY AS MOISTURE FROM THE                  
EMILY-DRIVEN SURGE SHOULD STILL BE IN PLACE. YESTERDAY...THE CONCERN            
WAS WHETHER OR NOT THE WESTERLIES WOULD GET FAR ENOUGH SOUTH EARLY              
NEXT WEEK TO START SCOURING OUT THE MOISTURE. TODAY...THE TREND IS              
LEANING MORE TOWARDS AN ANSWER OF NO...WITH THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO            
BEING THE RIDGE REBUILDING OVERHEAD AND TRAPPING ALL THE RESIDUAL               
MOISTURE UNDERNEATH. THUS...WE NOW HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE                      
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS ALL THE WAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A BIAS              
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWFA WHERE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY               
SHOULD BE GREATEST. NO CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE.            
POINT FORECASTS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON COVERAGE OF CLOUDS AND              
THUNDERSTORMS.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...TAF ADEQUATELY COVERS EXPECTED WEATHER AT KLAS.                     
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN ALL APPROACH CORRIDORS AND NEAR             
KLAS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.                                 
&&                                                                              
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.NV...NONE.                                                                     
.AZ...NONE.                                                                     
.CA...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ADAIR/JACQUES/MORGAN                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   nv                                                           


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV                                           
256 AM PDT THU JUL 21 2005                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA HAS ALLOWED                
MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO SWEEP INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE                
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST THE REST                 
OF THE WEEK...WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS              
AND SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FIVE TO TEN DEGREES LOWER FROM THE            
FIRST OF THE WEEK DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES.           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING.              
IN THE VERY SHORT TERM THIS MORNING I AM LOOKING A CLUSTER OF                   
PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS IN YAVAPAI COUNTY THAT WILL SHORTLY MOVE               
INTO MOHAVE COUNTY. RUC AND NAM DEPICT INVERTED TROUGH AND VORT MAX             
ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH                     
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM CLUSTER. MIGHT BE A BIT OVER DONE WITH               
THE QPF AND STRENGTH BUT STILL EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO PERSIST AS IT             
MOVES INTO MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR TO THE NORTH. HAVE UPPED POPS OVER            
MOHAVE AND CLARK COUNTIES THIS MORNING AS A RESULT. OTHERWISE STILL             
LOOK FOR CONTINUED CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER THE PRIMARILY SOUTHERN                
PORTIONS OF CWA THROUGH OUT THE SHORT TERM WITH DIURNAL MAXIMUMS IN             
THE AFTERNOONS. MODELS CONSISTENT AND IN AGREEMENT IN KEEPING                   
MONSOON FLOW OVER THE AREA. FORECAST CAPE AND PW LOOK FAVORABLE AS              
WELL. REMNANTS OF EMILY WILL COME IN TO PLAY ON SATURDAY AND SEND               
ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. CONCERN TO THINK ABOUT WHEN                
THIS OCCURS IN THE FLOODING POTENTIAL IN WHAT WILL BE VERY MOIST AIR.           
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...MORE MESSY WEATHER ON SUNDAY AS MOISTURE FROM THE                  
EMILY-DRIVEN SURGE SHOULD STILL BE IN PLACE. YESTERDAY...THE CONCERN            
WAS WHETHER OR NOT THE WESTERLIES WOULD GET FAR ENOUGH SOUTH EARLY              
NEXT WEEK TO START SCOURING OUT THE MOISTURE. TODAY...THE TREND IS              
LEANING MORE TOWARDS AN ANSWER OF NO...WITH THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO            
BEING THE RIDGE REBUILDING OVERHEAD AND TRAPPING ALL THE RESIDUAL               
MOISTURE UNDERNEATH. THUS...WE NOW HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE                      
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS ALL THE WAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A BIAS              
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWFA WHERE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY               
SHOULD BE GREATEST. NO CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE.            
POINT FORECASTS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON COVERAGE OF CLOUDS AND              
THUNDERSTORMS.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...SOME SHOWERS ALREADY UNDERWAY IN THE PEACH SPRINGS AND              
MORMON MESA CORRIDORS THIS MORNING...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS               
EXPECTED IN ALL APPROACH CORRIDORS AND NEAR KLAS FROM LATE MORNING              
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.NV...NONE.                                                                     
.AZ...NONE.                                                                     
.CA...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JACQUES/MORGAN                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   nv                                                           


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY                                             
1045 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2005                                                     
.UPDATE...WEAK TROUGH MOVING INTO WESTERN NY. RADAR SHOWS A FEW                 
WIDELY SCT SHWRS ACROSS PTNS OF SOUTHERN TIER AND SOUTHERN FINGER               
LKS AND ACTIVITY IS BECMG MORE SCT. WILL KEEP SLGT CHC OF ANOTHER               
SHWR INTO ERLY AFTN JUST FOR CATT/ALLEGANY COUNTIES. REST OF REGION             
MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS OR PTLY SUNNY FOR THIS AFTN.                              
TEMPS LOWERED JUST A TAD IN A FEW ZNS WITH WINDS BECMG WESTERLY                 
BEHIND BNDRY.                                                                   
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS BUT             
THE HEAT WILL NOT BE AS OPPRESSIVE AS THAT EXPERIENCED THROUGH LAST             
WEEKEND. READINGS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL                
RATHER THAN 10 TO 15...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB TO             
UNCOMFORTABLE LEVELS.                                                           
OUR UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL THEN FEATURE MORE PLEASANT CONDITIONS AS              
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH OUT OF EASTERN CANADA. THIS                 
BREAK FROM THE 'HEAT OF 2005' WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS TEMPS               
WILL TAKE A ROLLER COASTER RIDE BACK TO SULTRY LEVELS FOR THE FIRST             
HALF OF NEX WEEK.                                                               
PRECIPITATION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO COME            
BY...DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL FRONTAL SYSTEMS.                            
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                         
THE SUMMER OF 2005 HAS FEATURED PLENTY OF RECORD HEAT...BUT A                   
SERIOUS LACK OF ANY MCS ACTIVITY. THIS HAS ESPECIALLY BEEN THE CASE             
TO OUR WEST...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH A RARE 2005 MCS THIS                
MORNING.                                                                        
CONVECTION FIRED UP LAST EVENING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS               
DRAPED ACROSS THE UPPER MID WEST. AS OF 0630Z...THE CONVECTION WAS              
CENTERED OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE AND NORTHERN OHIO. CLOUD TOP TEMPS              
AND LTG ACTIVITY SHOW THAT THE ACTIVITY IS HOLDING TOGETHER...AND AS            
MENTIONED IN THE CHAT ROOM TO CTP/CLE...THE NAM AND RUC ARE DOING               
SURPRISINGLY WELL IN DEPICTING THIS.                                            
A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT IS HELPING TO SUPPORT THIS ACTIVITY WILL PASS             
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WHILE I DO BELIEVE THAT THE              
CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN TOWARDS DAYBREAK (CLIMATOLOGY)...I HAVE ADDED            
CHC POPS TO THE SRN TIER TO HANDLE THE LEFTOVER ACTIVITY. SLGT CHC              
WILL BE USED FOR THE IAG FRONTIER.                                              
OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL BECOME A LITTLE WARMER AND MORE HUMID THAN               
THE PAST TWO DAYS. H8 TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB TO AROUND +18C IN THE WEST             
AND +16C IN THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. AS A RESULT TEMPS                  
SHOULD EASILY CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S IN MOST AREAS WITH               
SOME 90 DEGREE READINGS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES                  
REGION.                                                                         
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL APPROACH THE REGION            
TONIGHT...THEN PASS THROUGH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL               
HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND VERY LITTLE JET ASSISTANCE...             
SO ONLY SLGT CHC POPS WILL BE USED TO COVER ANY TRW POTENTIAL.                  
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM ONTARIO ON FRIDAY                 
NIGHT...SO HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR ANY PCPN. THIS IS A BIG CHANGE FROM            
CONTINUITY...BUT IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE NAM AND TRUSTED GFS.                  
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START A SHORT LIVED PERIOD OF 'NORMAL'              
MID SUMMER WEATHER...WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPS CLOSE TO                 
SEASONAL NORMS FOR BOTH DAYS OF THE WEEKEND.                                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                        
THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW OF            
WARMER AIR OVERSPREADING THE AREA. SUNDAY NGT A WARM FRNT OVER THE              
LOWER LAKES MOVES NE AND BRINGS CHC SHWR/TSTM.                                  
UPPER ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH EXACT TIMING             
OF PASSING LOW CENTERS SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.  AT             
THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE A LOW WILL BE EXITING THE AREA MONDAY                   
MORNING; THEN ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND            
EXIT THE EASTERN LAKES WEDNESDAY, WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND                  
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES                   
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND NEAR NORMAL              
WEDNESDAY.                                                                      
LOOKING FURTHER OUT...A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE SHOULD BE IN THE                   
OFFING. THE LONG WAVE RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED MUCH OF THE COUNTRY              
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF MONTHS IS EXPECTED TO RE-ORIENT ITSELF SO               
THAT IT BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. AS A                 
RESULT...A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE GREAT              
LAKES REGION WITH TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO MORE TYPICAL LEVELS.                 
THE CHANGE WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE WAKE OF A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONTAL            
PASSAGE NEXT WEDNESDAY (JUL 27). GFS BASED ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD                
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SOLUTION...AND HAVE BEEN FOR THE PAST COUPLE                
RUNS. THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE INTO NEAR TO BELOW                  
NORMAL TEMPS FOR OUR REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF (THURS-SAT) OF NEXT             
WEEK.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
EXPECT ONLY SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD AS A WEAKENING TROF SLIDES ACROSS              
OUR REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH             
TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
LOOK FOR LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS TODAY...TURNING VARIABLE ON THE OPEN              
WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO. WINDS WILL TEND NORTHERLY FOLLOWING A                   
SECONDARY FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.                              
&&                                                                              
.CLIMO...                                                                       
WED MORNING'S MIN OF 65 AT BUF ENDED AN 8 DAY STRETCH OF MINIMUM                
TEMPS IN 70S. THIS IS LONGEST CONSEC RUN EVER AT AIRPORT (SINCE                 
1943). ALSO...FIRST 20 DAYS OF JULY AVERAGING 76.3...BUF'S WARMEST              
MONTH IN HISTORY IS 76.2 (JULY 1921). LAST TEN DAYS LOOK TO AVERAGE             
CLOSER TO NORMAL THOUGH.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.BUFFALO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                         
.NY...NONE.                                                                     
.MARINE...NONE.                                                                 
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...JJP                                                                    
SHORT TERM...RSH                                                                
LONG TERM...JJP/APB/RSH                                                         
AVIATION/MARINE/CLIMO...SFM                                                     
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
950 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM(TODAY - FRIDAY NIGHT)...                                            
UPDATE - BATCH OF WEAKENING -SHRA OVER STEUBEN CNTY AND THIS TREND              
WILL CONTINUE. GRIDS HAVE SLGT CHC FOR THIS AREA THIS MRNG WHICH                
LOOKS GOOD. THIS AFTN XPCT THE CLD BAND ASSCD WITH THE DYING -SHRA              
TO MOVE ESE ACRS THE FCST AREA WHILE DIMINISHING, SO THE PARTLY                 
SUNNY FCST ALSO LOOKS FINE. APPEARS TO BE TOO MUCH CIN TO OVERCOME              
FOR CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT THIS AFTN ACRS E/SE ZONES. LAMP DATA SUGGEST             
MAXES A FEW DEG COOLER THAN CRNTLY FCST, BUT CRNT FCST MAXES ARE                
SUPPORTED BY 925 MB TEMPS XPCTD FOR THIS AFTN. WE MAY TRIM MAXES BY             
A FEW DEG FOR TDA, OTRW LTL CHG TO CRNT FCST. PREV AFD BLO.                     
TODAY...WEAKENING H5 SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS CWA THIS MORNING.              
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A SCT/BKN MID DECK THROUGH LATE MORNING. BUF                
RADAR SHOWS CONVECTION ABOUT TO MOVE INTO WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. RUC            
INDICATES ACTIVITY MAY REACH CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER. WILL INCLUDE                
SLIGHT CHC HERE FOR THE MORNING HOURS. OVERALL A PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY            
DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.                                         
TONIGHT...ANOTHER MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH TEMPS A CATEGORY HIGHER.              
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...NAM/GFS FAIRLY CLOSE WITH TIMING OF COLD FRONT            
AS NAM HAS SPED UP FROPA WITH LATEST RUN. MOS POPS LOW BOTH                     
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT DUE MAINLY TO LACK OF MOISTURE AS DYNAMICS                  
FAIRLY STRONG FOR LATE JULY. WILL GO 20 POPS BOTH FRIDAY                        
AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING MOST AREAS AND WAIT FOR LATER RUNS TO                  
REFINE POP AS I PREFER NOT TO USE THE "HIDDEN POP".                             
RRM                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SAT - WEDNESDAY)...                                                 
SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY MIDDAY ON SATURDAY AS HIGH                  
PRESSURE BUILDS IN, BRINGING COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR INTO CENTRAL             
NY/NE PA. SUNDAY SHOULD SEE CONTINUED SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH LOW                 
HUMIDITY. HAZY...HOT...AND HUMID CONDITIONS MOVE BACK IN ON MONDAY              
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN             
THE ACTION ON TUESDAY...BUT ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH             
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, WITH A CHANCE OF                          
THUNDERSTORMS. THAT COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE THE BEGINNING OF A                   
PATTERN CHANGE...WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH BUILDING INTO THE ERN U.S.              
AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK. JVA.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (21/06Z - 22/06Z)...                                                  
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF                  
VALLEY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING (ELM) WHERE FOG MAY RESTRICT VSBY TO              
IFR/MVFR. THROUGH MIDDAY A SCT/BKN MID DECK WILL CROSS THE AREA THEN            
JUST SCT CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5K FT. OVERNIGHT WILL BE                  
MAINLY CLEAR WITH JUST SOME CIRRUS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT             
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND GENERALLY FROM THE WEST.   RRM                           
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.NY...NONE.                                                                     
.PA...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY                                             
855 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2005                                                      
.UPDATE...ISSUED AN EARLY UPDATE TO COVER SCT SHWR ACTIVITY ACROSS              
SOUTHERN TIER...MOVING INTO FINGER LKS REGION.                                  
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS BUT             
THE HEAT WILL NOT BE AS OPPRESSIVE AS THAT EXPERIENCED THROUGH LAST             
WEEKEND. READINGS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL                
RATHER THAN 10 TO 15...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB TO             
UNCOMFORTABLE LEVELS.                                                           
OUR UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL THEN FEATURE MORE PLEASANT CONDITIONS AS              
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH OUT OF EASTERN CANADA. THIS                 
BREAK FROM THE 'HEAT OF 2005' WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS TEMPS               
WILL TAKE A ROLLER COASTER RIDE BACK TO SULTRY LEVELS FOR THE FIRST             
HALF OF NEX WEEK.                                                               
PRECIPITATION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO COME            
BY...DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL FRONTAL SYSTEMS.                            
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                         
THE SUMMER OF 2005 HAS FEATURED PLENTY OF RECORD HEAT...BUT A                   
SERIOUS LACK OF ANY MCS ACTIVITY. THIS HAS ESPECIALLY BEEN THE CASE             
TO OUR WEST...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH A RARE 2005 MCS THIS                
MORNING.                                                                        
CONVECTION FIRED UP LAST EVENING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS               
DRAPED ACROSS THE UPPER MID WEST. AS OF 0630Z...THE CONVECTION WAS              
CENTERED OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE AND NORTHERN OHIO. CLOUD TOP TEMPS              
AND LTG ACTIVITY SHOW THAT THE ACTIVITY IS HOLDING TOGETHER...AND AS            
MENTIONED IN THE CHAT ROOM TO CTP/CLE...THE NAM AND RUC ARE DOING               
SURPRISINGLY WELL IN DEPICTING THIS.                                            
A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT IS HELPING TO SUPPORT THIS ACTIVITY WILL PASS             
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WHILE I DO BELIEVE THAT THE              
CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN TOWARDS DAYBREAK (CLIMATOLOGY)...I HAVE ADDED            
CHC POPS TO THE SRN TIER TO HANDLE THE LEFTOVER ACTIVITY. SLGT CHC              
WILL BE USED FOR THE IAG FRONTIER.                                              
OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL BECOME A LITTLE WARMER AND MORE HUMID THAN               
THE PAST TWO DAYS. H8 TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB TO AROUND +18C IN THE WEST             
AND +16C IN THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. AS A RESULT TEMPS                  
SHOULD EASILY CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S IN MOST AREAS WITH               
SOME 90 DEGREE READINGS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES                  
REGION.                                                                         
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL APPROACH THE REGION            
TONIGHT...THEN PASS THROUGH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL               
HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND VERY LITTLE JET ASSISTANCE...             
SO ONLY SLGT CHC POPS WILL BE USED TO COVER ANY TRW POTENTIAL.                  
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM ONTARIO ON FRIDAY                 
NIGHT...SO HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR ANY PCPN. THIS IS A BIG CHANGE FROM            
CONTINUITY...BUT IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE NAM AND TRUSTED GFS.                  
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START A SHORT LIVED PERIOD OF 'NORMAL'              
MID SUMMER WEATHER...WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPS CLOSE TO                 
SEASONAL NORMS FOR BOTH DAYS OF THE WEEKEND.                                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                        
THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW OF            
WARMER AIR OVERSPREADING THE AREA. SUNDAY NGT A WARM FRNT OVER THE              
LOWER LAKES MOVES NE AND BRINGS CHC SHWR/TSTM.                                  
UPPER ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH EXACT TIMING             
OF PASSING LOW CENTERS SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.  AT             
THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE A LOW WILL BE EXITING THE AREA MONDAY                   
MORNING; THEN ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND            
EXIT THE EASTERN LAKES WEDNESDAY, WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND                  
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES                   
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND NEAR NORMAL              
WEDNESDAY.                                                                      
LOOKING FURTHER OUT...A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE SHOULD BE IN THE                   
OFFING. THE LONG WAVE RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED MUCH OF THE COUNTRY              
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF MONTHS IS EXPECTED TO RE-ORIENT ITSELF SO               
THAT IT BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. AS A                 
RESULT...A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE GREAT              
LAKES REGION WITH TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO MORE TYPICAL LEVELS.                 
THE CHANGE WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE WAKE OF A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONTAL            
PASSAGE NEXT WEDNESDAY (JUL 27). GFS BASED ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD                
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SOLUTION...AND HAVE BEEN FOR THE PAST COUPLE                
RUNS. THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE INTO NEAR TO BELOW                  
NORMAL TEMPS FOR OUR REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF (THURS-SAT) OF NEXT             
WEEK.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
EXPECT ONLY SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD AS A WEAKENING TROF SLIDES ACROSS              
OUR REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH             
TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
LOOK FOR LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS TODAY...TURNING VARIABLE ON THE OPEN              
WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO. WINDS WILL TEND NORTHERLY FOLLOWING A                   
SECONDARY FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.                              
&&                                                                              
.CLIMO...                                                                       
WED MORNING'S MIN OF 65 AT BUF ENDED AN 8 DAY STRETCH OF MINIMUM                
TEMPS IN 70S. THIS IS LONGEST CONSEC RUN EVER AT AIRPORT (SINCE                 
1943). ALSO...FIRST 20 DAYS OF JULY AVERAGING 76.3...BUF'S WARMEST              
MONTH IN HISTORY IS 76.2 (JULY 1921). LAST TEN DAYS LOOK TO AVERAGE             
CLOSER TO NORMAL THOUGH.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.BUFFALO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                         
.NY...NONE.                                                                     
.MARINE...NONE.                                                                 
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...JJP                                                                    
SHORT TERM...RSH                                                                
LONG TERM...JJP/APB/RSH                                                         
AVIATION/MARINE/CLIMO...SFM                                                     
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED TO ADD TO LONG TERM DISCUSSION               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY                                             
500 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2005                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS BUT             
THE HEAT WILL NOT BE AS OPPRESSIVE AS THAT EXPERIENCED THROUGH LAST             
WEEKEND. READINGS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL                
RATHER THAN 10 TO 15...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB TO             
UNCOMFORTABLE LEVELS.                                                           
OUR UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL THEN FEATURE MORE PLEASANT CONDITIONS AS              
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH OUT OF EASTERN CANADA. THIS                 
BREAK FROM THE 'HEAT OF 2005' WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS TEMPS               
WILL TAKE A ROLLER COASTER RIDE BACK TO SULTRY LEVELS FOR THE FIRST             
HALF OF NEX WEEK.                                                               
PRECIPITATION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO COME            
BY...DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL FRONTAL SYSTEMS.                            
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                         
THE SUMMER OF 2005 HAS FEATURED PLENTY OF RECORD HEAT...BUT A                   
SERIOUS LACK OF ANY MCS ACTIVITY. THIS HAS ESPECIALLY BEEN THE CASE             
TO OUR WEST...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH A RARE 2005 MCS THIS                
MORNING.                                                                        
CONVECTION FIRED UP LAST EVENING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS               
DRAPED ACROSS THE UPPER MID WEST. AS OF 0630Z...THE CONVECTION WAS              
CENTERED OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE AND NORTHERN OHIO. CLOUD TOP TEMPS              
AND LTG ACTIVITY SHOW THAT THE ACTIVITY IS HOLDING TOGETHER...AND AS            
MENTIONED IN THE CHAT ROOM TO CTP/CLE...THE NAM AND RUC ARE DOING               
SURPRISINGLY WELL IN DEPICTING THIS.                                            
A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT IS HELPING TO SUPPORT THIS ACTIVITY WILL PASS             
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WHILE I DO BELIEVE THAT THE              
CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN TOWARDS DAYBREAK (CLIMATOLOGY)...I HAVE ADDED            
CHC POPS TO THE SRN TIER TO HANDLE THE LEFTOVER ACTIVITY. SLGT CHC              
WILL BE USED FOR THE IAG FRONTIER.                                              
OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL BECOME A LITTLE WARMER AND MORE HUMID THAN               
THE PAST TWO DAYS. H8 TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB TO AROUND +18C IN THE WEST             
AND +16C IN THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. AS A RESULT TEMPS                  
SHOULD EASILY CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S IN MOST AREAS WITH               
SOME 90 DEGREE READINGS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES                  
REGION.                                                                         
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL APPROACH THE REGION            
TONIGHT...THEN PASS THROUGH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL               
HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND VERY LITTLE JET ASSISTANCE...             
SO ONLY SLGT CHC POPS WILL BE USED TO COVER ANY TRW POTENTIAL.                  
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM ONTARIO ON FRIDAY                 
NIGHT...SO HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR ANY PCPN. THIS IS A BIG CHANGE FROM            
CONTINUITY...BUT IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE NAM AND TRUSTED GFS.                  
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START A SHORT LIVED PERIOD OF 'NORMAL'              
MID SUMMER WEATHER...WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPS CLOSE TO                 
SEASONAL NORMS FOR BOTH DAYS OF THE WEEKEND.                                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                        
THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW OF            
WARMER AIR OVERSPREADING THE AREA. SUNDAY NGT A WARM FRNT OVER THE              
LOWER LAKES MOVES NE AND BRINGS CHC SHWR/TSTM.                                  
UPPER ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH EXACT TIMING             
OF PASSING LOW CENTERS SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.  AT             
THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE A LOW WILL BE EXITING THE AREA MONDAY                   
MORNING; THEN ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND            
EXIT THE EASTERN LAKES WEDNESDAY, WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND                  
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES                   
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND NEAR NORMAL              
WEDNESDAY.                                                                      
LOOKING FURTHER OUT...A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE SHOULD BE IN THE                   
OFFING. THE LONG WAVE RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED MUCH OF THE COUNTRY              
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF MONTHS IS EXPECTED TO RE-ORIENT ITSELF SO               
THAT IT BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. AS A                 
RESULT...A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE GREAT              
LAKES REGION WITH TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO MORE TYPICAL LEVELS.                 
THE CHANGE WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE WAKE OF A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONTAL            
PASSAGE NEXT WEDNESDAY (JUL 27). GFS BASED ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD                
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SOLUTION...AND HAVE BEEN FOR THE PAST COUPLE                
RUNS. THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE INTO NEAR TO BELOW                  
NORMAL TEMPS FOR OUR REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF (THURS-SAT) OF NEXT             
WEEK.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
EXPECT ONLY SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD AS A WEAKENING TROF SLIDES ACROSS              
OUR REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH             
TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
LOOK FOR LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS TODAY...TURNING VARIABLE ON THE OPEN              
WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO. WINDS WILL TEND NORTHERLY FOLLOWING A                   
SECONDARY FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.                              
&&                                                                              
.CLIMO...                                                                       
WED MORNING'S MIN OF 65 AT BUF ENDED AN 8 DAY STRETCH OF MINIMUM                
TEMPS IN 70S. THIS IS LONGEST CONSEC RUN EVER AT AIRPORT (SINCE                 
1943). ALSO...FIRST 20 DAYS OF JULY AVERAGING 76.3...BUF'S WARMEST              
MONTH IN HISTORY IS 76.2 (JULY 1921). LAST TEN DAYS LOOK TO AVERAGE             
CLOSER TO NORMAL THOUGH.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.BUFFALO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                         
.NY...NONE.                                                                     
.MARINE...NONE.                                                                 
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...RSH                                                                
LONG TERM...JJP/APB/RSH                                                         
AVIATION/MARINE/CLIMO...SFM                                                     
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
408 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM(TODAY - FRIDAY NIGHT)...                                            
TODAY...WEAKENING H5 SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS CWA THIS MORNING.              
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A SCT/BKN MID DECK THROUGH LATE MORNING. BUF                
RADAR SHOWS CONVECTION ABOUT TO MOVE INTO WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. RUC            
INDICATES ACTIVITY MAY REACH CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER. WILL INCLUDE                
SLIGHT CHC HERE FOR THE MORNING HOURS. OVERALL A PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY            
DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.                                         
TONIGHT...ANOTHER MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH TEMPS A CATEGORY HIGHER.              
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...NAM/GFS FAIRLY CLOSE WITH TIMING OF COLD FRONT            
AS NAM HAS SPED UP FROPA WITH LATEST RUN. MOS POPS LOW BOTH                     
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT DUE MAINLY TO LACK OF MOISTURE AS DYNAMICS                  
FAIRLY STRONG FOR LATE JULY. WILL GO 20 POPS BOTH FRIDAY                        
AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING MOST AREAS AND WAIT FOR LATER RUNS TO                  
REFINE POP AS I PREFER NOT TO USE THE "HIDDEN POP".                             
RRM                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SAT - WEDNESDAY)...                                                 
SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY MIDDAY ON SATURDAY AS HIGH                  
PRESSURE BUILDS IN, BRINGING COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR INTO CENTRAL             
NY/NE PA. SUNDAY SHOULD SEE CONTINUED SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH LOW                 
HUMIDITY. HAZY...HOT...AND HUMID CONDITIONS MOVE BACK IN ON MONDAY              
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN             
THE ACTION ON TUESDAY...BUT ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH             
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, WITH A CHANCE OF                          
THUNDERSTORMS. THAT COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE THE BEGINNING OF A                   
PATTERN CHANGE...WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH BUILDING INTO THE ERN U.S.              
AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK. JVA.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (21/06Z - 22/06Z)...                                                  
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF                  
VALLEY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING (ELM) WHERE FOG MAY RESTRICT VSBY TO              
IFR/MVFR. THROUGH MIDDAY A SCT/BKN MID DECK WILL CROSS THE AREA THEN            
JUST SCT CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5K FT. OVERNIGHT WILL BE                  
MAINLY CLEAR WITH JUST SOME CIRRUS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT             
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND GENERALLY FROM THE WEST.   RRM                           
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.NY...NONE.                                                                     
.PA...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY                                             
245 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2005                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS BUT             
THE HEAT WILL NOT BE AS OPPRESSIVE AS THAT EXPERIENCED THROUGH LAST             
WEEKEND. READINGS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL                
RATHER THAN 10 TO 15...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB TO             
UNCOMFORTABLE LEVELS.                                                           
OUR UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL THEN FEATURE MORE PLEASANT CONDITIONS AS              
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH OUT OF EASTERN CANADA. THIS                 
BREAK FROM THE 'HEAT OF 2005' WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS TEMPS               
WILL TAKE A ROLLER COASTER RIDE BACK TO SULTRY LEVELS FOR THE FIRST             
HALF OF NEX WEEK.                                                               
PRECIPITATION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO COME            
BY...DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL FRONTAL SYSTEMS.                            
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                         
THE SUMMER OF 2005 HAS FEATURED PLENTY OF RECORD HEAT...BUT A                   
SERIOUS LACK OF ANY MCS ACTIVITY. THIS HAS ESPECIALLY BEEN THE CASE             
TO OUR WEST...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH A RARE 2005 MCS THIS                
MORNING.                                                                        
CONVECTION FIRED UP LAST EVENING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS               
DRAPED ACROSS THE UPPER MID WEST. AS OF 0630Z...THE CONVECTION WAS              
CENTERED OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE AND NORTHERN OHIO. CLOUD TOP TEMPS              
AND LTG ACTIVITY SHOW THAT THE ACTIVITY IS HOLDING TOGETHER...AND AS            
MENTIONED IN THE CHAT ROOM TO CTP/CLE...THE NAM AND RUC ARE DOING               
SURPRISINGLY WELL IN DEPICTING THIS.                                            
A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT IS HELPING TO SUPPORT THIS ACTIVITY WILL PASS             
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WHILE I DO BELIEVE THAT THE              
CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN TOWARDS DAYBREAK (CLIMATOLOGY)...I HAVE ADDED            
CHC POPS TO THE SRN TIER TO HANDLE THE LEFTOVER ACTIVITY. SLGT CHC              
WILL BE USED FOR THE IAG FRONTIER.                                              
OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL BECOME A LITTLE WARMER AND MORE HUMID THAN               
THE PAST TWO DAYS. H8 TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB TO AROUND +18C IN THE WEST             
AND +16C IN THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. AS A RESULT TEMPS                  
SHOULD EASILY CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S IN MOST AREAS WITH               
SOME 90 DEGREE READINGS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES                  
REGION.                                                                         
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL APPROACH THE REGION            
TONIGHT...THEN PASS THROUGH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL               
HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND VERY LITTLE JET ASSISTANCE...             
SO ONLY SLGT CHC POPS WILL BE USED TO COVER ANY TRW POTENTIAL.                  
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM ONTARIO ON FRIDAY                 
NIGHT...SO HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR ANY PCPN. THIS IS A BIG CHANGE FROM            
CONTINUITY...BUT IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE NAM AND TRUSTED GFS.                  
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START A SHORT LIVED PERIOD OF 'NORMAL'              
MID SUMMER WEATHER...WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPS CLOSE TO                 
SEASONAL NORMS FOR BOTH DAYS OF THE WEEKEND.                                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                        
THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW OF            
WARMER AIR OVERSPREADING THE AREA. SUNDAY NGT A WARM FRNT OVER THE              
LOWER LAKES MOVES NE AND BRINGS CHC SHWR/TSTM.                                  
UPPER ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH EXACT TIMING             
OF PASSING LOW CENTERS SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.  AT             
THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE A LOW WILL BE EXITING THE AREA MONDAY                   
MORNING; THEN ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND            
EXIT THE EASTERN LAKES WEDNESDAY, WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND                  
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES                   
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND NEAR NORMAL              
WEDNESDAY.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
EXPECT ONLY SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD AS A WEAKENING TROF SLIDES ACROSS              
OUR REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH             
TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
LOOK FOR LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS TODAY...TURNING VARIABLE ON THE OPEN              
WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO. WINDS WILL TEND NORTHERLY FOLLOWING A                   
SECONDARY FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.                              
&&                                                                              
.CLIMO...                                                                       
WED MORNING'S MIN OF 65 AT BUF ENDED AN 8 DAY STRETCH OF MINIMUM                
TEMPS IN 70S. THIS IS LONGEST CONSEC RUN EVER AT AIRPORT (SINCE                 
1943). ALSO...FIRST 20 DAYS OF JULY AVERAGING 76.3...BUF'S WARMEST              
MONTH IN HISTORY IS 76.2 (JULY 1921). LAST TEN DAYS LOOK TO AVERAGE             
CLOSER TO NORMAL THOUGH.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.BUFFALO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                         
.NY...NONE.                                                                     
.MARINE...NONE.                                                                 
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...RSH                                                                
LONG TERM...JJP/APB                                                             
AVIATION/MARINE/CLIMO...SFM                                                     
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
328 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...                                 
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM KPKB TO                 
KFGX TO OWENTON. MESO HIGH NORTH OF THE THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO              
SHOW DIVERGENT FLOW OVER MUCH OF FA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING TWO              
CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES. ONE ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND THE OTHER               
DESCRIBED ABOVE. KILN RADAR ALSO SHOWING RESPECTABLE CONVECTION                 
ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES.                                                         
NAM/RUC AND GFS ALL INDICATING LINEAR MCS WILL DEVELOP OVER NRN                 
IL/NRN INDIANA. INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY GREATER THAN 4000 J/KG.                
AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE IN PLACE MOST OF THE NIGHT              
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. STEERING CURRENT WILL TAKE LINEAR MCS                 
TO THE IN/OH BORDER CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT. THIS MCS WILL THEN CONTINUE              
TO WORK ACROSS FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.                     
QUESTION IS WILL IT BE SEVERE? CURRENT THOUGHT IS THAT IT HAS THE               
BEST CHANCE IN THE WEST WITH CONVECTION STILL BEING SURFACE BASED               
AND CAPE VALUES 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. AS IT MOVES EAST DURING THE                  
DIURNAL MIN CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME ELEVATED AND LOOSE IT'S                    
SEVERE CHARACTERISTICS. ALSO THE MID LEVEL JET OF 40 TO 50 KTS                  
STARTS TO DIE OUT WHICH MEANS IT'S FORWARD PROGRESSION SHOULD SLOW              
MAKING IT MORE OF A RAIN MAKER.  HOWEVER, THIS IS THE TIME OF YEAR              
THAT IT CAN LAST ALL NIGHT.                                                     
ONCE THIS MCS MOVES THROUGH THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH                   
DRIER DEW POINTS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DRY FORECAST AND BRIEF                  
RELIEF FROM THE HUMIDITY.                                                       
MAV TEMPS LOOK PRETTY GOOD. WILL BUMP TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES ON                 
FRIDAY. THE REAL HEAT DOES NOT RETURN UNTIL SUNDAY.                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                       
MODELS LIFT WARM FRONT THRU THE FA ON SUNDAY...BRINGING THE RETURN              
OF THE TROPICAL AIR.  LOOKS LIKE REGION WILL BE CAPPED HOWEVER...SO             
WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY FORECAST.  00Z GFS TRIES TO DRAG A COLD FRONT            
INTO THE FA MONDAY...PRODUCING AN AREA OF QPF.  06Z GFS AND                     
ECMWF...KEEP THE LIFT IN THE GREAT LAKES.  WILL KEEP FA DRY FOR                 
MONDAY.  FA IS IN BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF COLD FRONT IN THE UPPER         
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY.  ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO REAL UPPER                 
SUPPORT...INSTABILITY SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR AFTN CONVECTION.                
ALL MODELS SWING COLD FRONT THRU ON WEDNESDAY...WENT WITH BEST POPS             
THEN.  06Z QUICKER IN DRYING OUT THE FA THAN THE 00Z RUN WEDNESDAY              
NIGHT.  WENT WITH THE QUICKER SOLUTION.  HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE                
NORTH ON THU.                                                                   
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ON TEMPS.  WENT A TAD WARMER ON MONDAY WITH DRY               
FORECAST.                                                                       
SITES                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...                                                          
SOME THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST SE OF KLUK AND KCVG THIS                 
AFTERNOON.  THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY AT ALL THE TAF               
SITES THIS AFTERNOON.  LOOKING AT THE RUC QPF...LATEST VIS SAT AND              
RADAR...IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO KEEP A TEMPO -TSRA AT KCVG AND                      
KLUK...BUT ANY EXPECTED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE IS LIKELY TO              
BE TOO SPARSE TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.                                          
AFTER A RESPITE THIS EVENING...THE GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOW A                      
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM 08Z TO             
AROUND 15Z NW TO SE...AND IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO CARRY AT LEAST A               
TEMPO TSRA FOR THIS SCENARIO AT THIS TIME.                                      
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
LONG TERM...                                                                    
AVIATION...                                                                     
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
1259 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2005                                                     
.AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...                                                          
SOME THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST SE OF KLUK AND KCVG THIS                 
AFTERNOON.  THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY AT ALL THE TAF               
SITES THIS AFTERNOON.  LOOKING AT THE RUC QPF...LATEST VIS SAT AND              
RADAR...IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO KEEP A TEMPO -TSRA AT KCVG AND                      
KLUK...BUT ANY EXPECTED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE IS LIKELY TO              
BE TOO SPARSE TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.                                          
AFTER A RESPITE THIS EVENING...THE GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOW A                      
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM 08Z TO             
AROUND 15Z NW TO SE...AND IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO CARRY AT LEAST A               
TEMPO TSRA FOR THIS SCENARIO AT THIS TIME.                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 1050 AM EDT JUL 21 2005)                                                
SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                   
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR I-71 CORRIDOR WITH                 
MESO HIGH BACK OVER INDIANA/NW OHIO. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES                
SKIES MIXING OUT EXCEPT FOR NEAR OUTFLOW WHERE ATTM CLOUDS (MID                 
LEVEL CLOUDS) ARE ENHANCING AS IT SLIDES SOUTH. SATELLITE LOOP ALSO             
HINTS A WAVE TO THE SW OF CINCINNATI                                            
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES TO BUMP TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO AND TO            
LOWER POPS WITH A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE. CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS            
MORNING HAS DIED OUT. NAM AND RUC SHOWING SINKING MOTION FOR MUCH OF            
THE DAY WITH SOME LIFT TO THE SW AND NE OF CWA WITH WEAK WAVES IN               
THE NW FLOW. BOTH MODELS SHOWING BETTER THAN 4000 J/KG OVER PORTIONS            
OF THE WEST OR SOUTHERN PORTION OF CWA THIS AFT/EVE. THE DIFFERENCE             
BETWEEN THE TWO IS THE RUC SHOWS A CAP FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WITH                
IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY WILL LEAVE IN 30 POPS WITH MESO                          
HIGH...GENERAL SYNOPTIC SINKING MOTION AND CAP AS LIMITING FACTORS.             
TIPTON                                                                          
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 335 AM EDT JUL 21 2005)                                                 
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...                                      
UPPER AIR PATTERN HAS A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. POTENT SHORT WAVES TODAY            
AND FRIDAY WILL PROVIDE MID LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION.                       
SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH             
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE FRONT. FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH                
ACROSS ILN CWA TO SOUTHERN KENTUCKY BY FRIDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY             
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR.                                                    
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON RADAR ABOUT TO SPREAD INTO CENTRAL              
OHIO...AM INCREASING TODAY'S POPS TO 50% NORTH OF I-70...AND                    
INCREASING TO 40% SOUTH OF I-70 BY MID AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A               
SHORT LULL TONIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SHORT WAVE COMES INTO PLAY BY 12Z            
FRIDAY. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TONIGHT...THEN 30% ON FRIDAY.              
CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT ON FRIDAY NIGHT.                                        
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...THOUGH                 
STORMS HAVE BEEN WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE AWAY FROM THE MORE UNSTABLE             
AIRMASS OVER ILLINOIS AND INDIANA.                                              
LOWERED TEMPS A BIT ON FRIDAY...THOUGH NOT AS LOW AS ETA GUIDANCE.              
LOWERED FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL WITH SOME CLEARING LIKELY.                         
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 427 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2005)                                             
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                         
UPPER PATTERN IS TRANSITIONING TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH STRONG                
UPPER HIGH BUILDING INTO OUR SOUTH.  THIS PUTS THE FORECAST AREA                
INTO A VERY WARM AND STICKY PATTERN WITH PERIODIC SHOTS OF STRONG               
THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE              
PERIOD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NOT FALLING BELOW 70 AT TIMES. THE                   
STICKIEST AND HOTTEST DAYS LOOK LIKE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS 500                  
HEIGHTS GO ABOVE 590 DM.  CONVECTION WILL BE HARD TO TIME AS IT WILL            
BE BOTH NOCTURNAL AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF             
THE WEAK PERTURBATIONS WORKING DOWN IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.                  
TIPTON                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
1050 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2005                                                     
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR I-71 CORRIDOR WITH                 
MESO HIGH BACK OVER INDIANA/NW OHIO. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES                
SKIES MIXING OUT EXCEPT FOR NEAR OUTFLOW WHERE ATTM CLOUDS (MID                 
LEVEL CLOUDS) ARE ENHANCING AS IT SLIDES SOUTH. SATELLITE LOOP ALSO             
HINTS A WAVE TO THE SW OF CINCINNATI                                            
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES TO BUMP TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO AND               
TO LOWER POPS WITH A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE. CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS         
MORNING HAS DIED OUT. NAM AND RUC SHOWING SINKING MOTION FOR MUCH               
OF THE DAY WITH SOME LIFT TO THE SW AND NE OF CWA WITH WEAK WAVES               
IN THE NW FLOW. BOTH MODELS SHOWING BETTER THAN 4000 J/KG OVER                  
PORTIONS OF THE WEST OR SOUTHERN PORTION OF CWA THIS AFT/EVE. THE               
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO IS THE RUC SHOWS A CAP FOR MUCH OF THE               
DAY. WITH IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY WILL LEAVE IN 30 POPS WITH MESO                
HIGH...GENERAL SYNOPTIC SINKING MOTION AND CAP AS LIMITING FACTORS.             
TIPTON                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 615 AM EDT JUL 21 2005)                                                 
AVIATION (12Z-12Z)...                                                           
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS OVER NRN OH AND CNTRL IN HAVE DEVELOPED IN                
RESPONSE TO FAVORABLE LO LVL JET AND CONVERGENCE AHD OF MID LVL S/W.            
THIS S/W TO PIVOT E THRU OH EARLY TDA AND WEAKEN. EXPECT STORMS TO              
TRACK ACRS TAF SITES AND WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO A MORE STABLE LESS            
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT EARLY TDA. MINOR S/W RIDGE IN THE WAKE OF                 
THIS EARLY S/W TDA SHUD PROVIDE A TEMPORARY DRY PERIOD. AMS TO                  
DESTABALIZE DURG THE AFTN WITH SBCAPES EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 4000               
J/KG TDA AND ALTHO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS LACKING HAVE A CONTD MENT             
OF TSTMS. UPPER LEVEL FLO TO TURN A LTL MORE NWRLY TONIGHT WITH NEXT            
SIGNIFICANT S/W TO AFFECT THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. WL MENT TSTMS           
LATE IN THE WESTERN TAF SITES IN THE 08Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME.                      
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...                                      
UPPER AIR PATTERN HAS A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. POTENT SHORT WAVES TODAY            
AND FRIDAY WILL PROVIDE MID LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION.                       
SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH             
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE FRONT. FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH                
ACROSS ILN CWA TO SOUTHERN KENTUCKY BY FRIDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY             
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR.                                                    
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON RADAR ABOUT TO SPREAD INTO CENTRAL              
OHIO...AM INCREASING TODAY'S POPS TO 50% NORTH OF I-70...AND                    
INCREASING TO 40% SOUTH OF I-70 BY MID AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A               
SHORT LULL TONIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SHORT WAVE COMES INTO PLAY BY 12Z            
FRIDAY. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TONIGHT...THEN 30% ON FRIDAY.              
CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT ON FRIDAY NIGHT.                                        
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...THOUGH                 
STORMS HAVE BEEN WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE AWAY FROM THE MORE UNSTABLE             
AIRMASS OVER ILLINOIS AND INDIANA.                                              
LOWERED TEMPS A BIT ON FRIDAY...THOUGH NOT AS LOW AS ETA GUIDANCE.              
LOWERED FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL WITH SOME CLEARING LIKELY.                         
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                         
UPPER PATTERN IS TRANSITIONING TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH STRONG                
UPPER HIGH BUILDING INTO OUR SOUTH.  THIS PUTS THE FORECAST AREA                
INTO A VERY WARM AND STICKY PATTERN WITH PERIODIC SHOTS OF STRONG               
THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE              
PERIOD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NOT FALLING BELOW 70 AT TIMES. THE                   
STICKIEST AND HOTTEST DAYS LOOK LIKE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS 500                  
HEIGHTS GO ABOVE 590 DM.  CONVECTION WILL BE HARD TO TIME AS IT WILL            
BE BOTH NOCTURNAL AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF             
THE WEAK PERTURBATIONS WORKING DOWN IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.                  
TIPTON                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                       
1125 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2005                                                     
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
WEAK MCV FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED               
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN PA THIS MORNING. RUC AND                 
ETA BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY CAP...IN CONTRAST TO                
WHAT WAS SHOWN YESTERDAY. THUS...GIVEN THE MCV AS A TRIGGER AND                 
INCREASING MOISTURE (LAYER PWS INCREASING TO 1.5"+) WITH MOISTURE               
SURGE OVER WESTERN PA...WILL EXPAND POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND                  
INCLUDE SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN                    
SECTIONS EXTENDING INTO THE LOWER SUSQ. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE AT                 
THIS TIME GIVEN WEAK SHEAR PROFILE...BUT GIVEN AVAILABLE MOISTURE               
AND EASTWARD PROPOGATION AT TIME OF MAX HEATING...WILL OBVIOUSLY                
NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY PULSING. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.            
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 238 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...                                      
NO SHORTAGE OF WORRIES IN THE NEAR TERM...AS WHAT WAS GOING TO BE A             
PRETTY NICE/EASY WX DAY FOR CENTRAL PA HAS BEEN COMPLICATED BY THE              
APPROACH OF AN MCS THAT FORMED LAST EVENING OVER LWR MI AND NRN IN.             
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDER ARE NOW ALL THE WAY INTO NRN OH AND COMING              
ON-SHORE FROM LK ERIE AS WE SPEAK. THE UPPER FLOW AND GOOD MOISTURE             
FAVOR THIS GUY DROPPING TO THE SE THRU 12Z...BUT IT MAY BRUSH THE               
WRN FRINGES OF THE CWA BEFORE THAT.  WILL ALLOW FOR THIS BY ADDING              
CHC POPS TO THE EXTREME WRN AREAS THIS MORNING...AND HOLDING THEM IN            
THE LAURELS THRU THE DAY...BUT DIPPING THEM TO 20S IN THE NWRN                  
MTS/PLATEAU IN THE AFTN.  THE DECENT CAP OVERHEAD (+8 TO +10C AT 7H)            
SHOULD LIMIT THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM...AND MAY KEEP              
MUCH THUNDER FROM OCCURRING. BUT WITH THINGS ALREADY GOING GOOD JUST            
TO OUR NW...WL MENTION THUNDER AS WELL.  THE ADDITION OF SOME                   
CLOUDS/DEBRIS FROM THE MCS WILL KEEP THINGS A BIT COOLER THAN                   
EARLIER EXPECTED AS WELL.  WILL KEEP MAXES BLO 90 IN MOST                       
LOCALES...EXCEPT THE LWR SUSQ.                                                  
ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTN SHOULD DIE AWAY FAST EARLY THIS EVENING.               
WILL ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHC POP IN THE SW FOR THE EVENING...THEN               
MAKE IT PRECIP FREE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.                                  
FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD START OUT DRY...TOO. BUT...A FAST (AND              
EVER-FASTER-PROGGED) MOVING COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE STATE FROM            
THE NORTH/NORTHWEST DURING THE DAYTIME.  OUR CAP WILL BE A BIT                  
WEAKER ON FRIDAY (+6-8C)...SO WILL CARRY A CHC POP FOR MOST OF THE              
AREA IN THE AFTN AND EVENING...TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHCS FOR THE REST             
OF FRI NITE.                                                                    
DANGELO                                                                         
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                       
MAKE A MINOR TWEAK OR TWO TO POPS ON SAT/NITE TO GO WITH EVER-FASTER            
TREND OF THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT...BUT OVERALL NO REAL CHANGES MADE                
BEYOND THAT.  CURR FCST IS GOOD WITH BIG PICTURE.  INTERESTING                  
PATTERN SHIFT MAY OCCUR LATE IN THE FCST TIME FRAME...AND MAY LEAD              
TO SUB-NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE MONTH - WITH MREF MEAN 5H                
HEIGHTS HINTING THAT AN UPPER TROF WL DIG OVER THE ERN CONUS.                   
DANGELO                                                                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
SOME MID AND HI CLDS TODAY...GIVEN WARM ADVECTION. A FEW SHOWERS AND            
STORMS COULD HOLD TOGETHER...BUT MOST AREAS WILL NOT SEE MUCH MORE              
THAN A SPRINKLE. MOST IF NOT ALL OF TODAY WILL BE VFR.                          
ONCE SUN SETS TONIGHT...AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS WORK IN...SOME MVFR                
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN BR.                                                        
MARTIN                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   pa                                                           


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT                                          
430 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                         
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE HAS PROVIDED FA WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TDY ALG              
WITH WARM TEMPS (80S).                                                          
TONITE: CDFNT DROPPING SEWRD ACRS ONTARIO TRIGGERING A FEW                      
THNDSTRMS THIS PM AND IS EXPECTED TO DROP THRU NRN TIER OF ZONES BY             
FRI AM. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS OF ANY CONVECTION OVRNGHT.                  
POOLING OF MSTR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT INSTABILITY MARGINAL                
AND UPPER SUPPORT LAGS BEHIND THE SFC CDFNT. TSRA ACTIVITY NORTH                
AND WEST OF YOW ATTM...AND IS EXPECTED TO APRCH ST LWR VLY THIS                 
EVENING. HAVE CONTD WITH CHC SHRA/TSRA FOR ALL OF NRN ZONES                     
OVRNGHT...AND ONLY SLIGHT CHC SOUTH TOWARDS MORNING.                            
FRIDAY: SFC CDFNT PUSHES ACRS CNTRL/SRN ZONES BY EARLY PM. MID LVL              
SHRTWV LAGS BEHIND HOWEVER...MOVG ACRS FA DURING PM/EVEN HRS. MDT               
INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT MSTR BEHIND FROPA COMBINED WITH SHRTWV               
WILL RESULT IN CONTD CHC SHRA/TSRA.                                             
FRI NGT: SHRTWV MOVES EAST OF FA. SFC HIGH BLDS INTO ERN GRT LAKES.             
SLIGHT CHC LINGERING SHWRS SRN/ERN SECTIONS FRIDAY                              
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY GRAD CLRNG AND COOLER CONDITIONS OVRNGHT.                 
SAT THRU SUN: DRY WX EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE                 
DOMINATES. COMFORTABLE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN 70S TO                 
LOWER 80S AND LOWER HUMIDITY ALONG WITH AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.            
SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS REGARDING HOW FAST WE SEE RETURN OF             
CLDS AND PSBL SHWRS WITH WAA. HAVE GONE WITH SLOWER GFS...WHICH IS              
IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FCST. THE RESULT WOULD BE A CONTINUATION OF               
DRY WX SUNDAY.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                   
MODELS CONT TO HAVE DIFFICULTIES IN MED RANGE PART OF FCST WITH                 
LIMITED DEVELOPMENT OF MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS GREAT LKS AND NOW ARE            
ADVERTISING MORE OF A ZONAL FLW ACRS OUR FA. LIFT/MOISTURE                      
ASSOCIATED WITH LLVL WAA MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA ON SUNDAY NIGHT             
AS STRONG SW SFC FLW DEVELOPS. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASED DWPTS WL            
PROBABLY KEEP TEMPS ABOVE GUIDANCE. NEXT SFC COLD FRNT AND ULVL                 
SUPPORT MV THRU FA ON MONDAY WITH CHC POPS...WHICH CRNT FCST HAS                
COVERED. HOWEVER...BEST ULVL SUPPORT AND MOISTURE MOVE FROM CENTRAL             
GREAT LKS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH SUPPORTS LIMITED POPS.                   
ALSO...SW FLW AHEAD OF FRNT SUGGESTS LIMITED POTENTIAL ACRS CPV.                
PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 15C SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 80S. TUESDAY INTO               
WEDS FAST WEST TO EAST FLW CONTS WITH EMBEDDED 5H VORTS. FEEL GFS IS            
SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS ACRS OUR FA ON                      
TUESDAY...THEREFORE WL CONT WITH DRY FCST AND KEEP TEMPS NEAR                   
NORMAL. WEDS...ANOTHER SFC FRNT AND ASSOCIATED 5H VORT APPROACHES               
OUR FA AND SEEMS BEST ULVL SUPPORT WL ONCE AGAIN MOVE INTO CANADA AS            
MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS ACRS SE CONUS. WL CONT TO MENTION CHC                
POPS WITH TEMPS WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL LVLS AHEAD OF FRNT. TIMING              
OF INDIVIDUAL FRNTS AND S/W ENERGY WL BE DIFFICULT GIVEN ULVL                   
FLW...THEREFORE FCSTER CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR TUES INTO WEDS.                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...(18Z-18Z)                                                           
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACRS OUR TAF SITES THIS AFTN WITH VIS SAT                
PICS SHOWING SOME CU ACRS MTNS AREAS ASSOCIATED WITH LLVL MOISTURE              
AND STEEP 1000-850MB LAPSE RATES. OTHERWISE...WATCHING SOME CLOUD               
DEVELOPMENT ACRS SOUTHERN CANADA ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT FRNT AND ULVL             
DISTURBANCE. GIVEN 20KM RUC TRENDS AND NAM 12 DATA WL MENTION VCTS              
AT MSS BTWN 03-07Z THIS EVENING. ALSO...WL INCREASE CLOUDS AT BTV               
AND MENTION TEMPO GROUP FOR -SHRA BTWN 12-16Z ASSOCIATED WITH SFC               
FRNT. AT MPV FEEL THE COMBINATION OF CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FG WL            
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP AND WL MENTION VIS AT 1/2SM AND CIGS AT OVC001               
BTWN 08Z-12Z. THE CHCS FOR TS ACTIVITY AT MPV/BTV ON FRIDAY MORNING             
WL BE LIMITED GIVEN ULVL FORCING OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND LIMITED               
SFC HEATING AND INSTABILITY.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VT...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...RJS                                                                
LONG TERM...TABER                                                               
AVIATION...TABER                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   vt