AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
450 AM MST SAT DEC 29 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)                                                             
...NEW RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE AT ALAMOSA THIS MORNING(12/29)...                 
...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/DAMAGE WINDS EAST PIKES PEAK/RAMPART RANGE              
LATE TONIGHT...                                                                 
CURRENTLY...LOW TEMPERATURE FOR ALAMOSA...SO FAR...HAS BEEN -29F AND            
THAT IS A NEW RECORD FOR 12/29. THE OLD RECORD WAS -28F/1966.  THERE            
IS STILL PLENTY OF CHANCES FOR THE ALAMOSA TEMPERATURE TO DROP                  
FURTHER EARLY THIS MORNING.  MEANWHILE...THE OTHER LOW LYING                    
AREAS(E.G. VALLEYS) WERE AROUND...OR JUST BELOW...0F.  WESTERLY                 
CHINOOK FLOW IS ALREADY SHOWING ITSELF WITH TEMPERATURES STEADY OR SLOWLY       
WARMING DURING THE NIGHT JUST WEST OF I-25 FROM 6K-9K FT.                       
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE TEENS AND 20S WITH COLORADO                   
SPRINGS...PUEBLO WEST...AND CANON CITY WARMING INTO THE                         
20S...WHILE LOWER ARKANSAS TEMPERATURE READINGS                                 
(KPUB...KLHX...KLAA) ARE STILL IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.  WATER VAPOR               
IMAGERY AND RUC MODEL UPPER AIR ANALYSES REVEALED WEST- NORTHWEST               
FLOW ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE WESTERN US. NEXT SIGNIFICANT                 
UPPER LEVEL JET WAS ABOUT TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN.                         
TODAY...WESTERLY CHINOOK FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL                  
ROCKIES. A LITTLE MORE MIXING AND SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY            
WARMER TEMPERATURES...EXCEPT IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY CENTER FLOOR                
WHERE THE TRAPPED COLD AIR/STRONG INVERSION/LOW SUN ANGLE SHOULD                
MAINTAIN SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES AND MAYBE GETTING INTO THE TEENS            
FOR ALAMOSA. WENT BELOW MOS GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY MET MOS...FOR ALS             
TODAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND OROGRAPHIC WIND COMPONENT TO            
GENERATE SOME SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AROUND            
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.                                     
TONIGHT...INTERESTING SCENARIO POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS              
OF SOUTHERN CO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE                         
NORTHWESTERLY AS THE 100-120KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK MOVES OVER                
CO...EXCEPT WESTERLY FLOW AROUND MOUNTAIN TOP. MOUNTAIN TOP STABLE              
LAYER DOES DEVELOP FOR PIKES PEAK/RAMPART RANGE AND MAYBE THE                   
WET/SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AFTER 05Z/30. 12KM NAM DOES HAVE SOME            
REVERSE SHEAR ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF PIKES PEAK AND THE RAMPART               
RANGE...BUT THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH OF A PRESSURE JUMP IN              
THE 12KM NAM DATA. TOUGH CALL. ALSO...THE VERTICAL SHEAR TRANSITIONS            
FROM REVERSE TO STRONG FORWARD SHEAR TOWARDS SUN MORNING. COULD SEE             
SOME WIND GUSTS OF 70-80 MPH ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF PIKES PEAK             
AND 55-65 MPH ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF RAMPART RANGE AFTER 05Z/30            
AND ESPECIALLY JUST BEFORE SUNRISE SUN. ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY...IT              
WOULD MAINLY BE ALONG AND WEST OF I-25...WHERE EAST OF I-25 THE WIND            
WOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL...WILL START A HIGH              
WIND WATCH(HW.A) FOR TELLER AND EL PASO COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT AND              
IT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY/               
CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL                     
MOUNTAINS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. FOR AN 18 HOUR                          
PERIOD...THERE COULD BE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-6 INCHES FOR MAINLY             
THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 9K FT MSL. ALSO...BLOWING SNOW COULD BE A              
PROBLEM FOR THOSE AREAS... ESPECIALLY HIGH MOUNTAIN PASSES. WILL                
HOLD OFF ISSUING ANY SNOW/BLOWING SNOW ADVISORIES FOR THOSE AREAS               
AND HIT IT IN THE DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE. THE OTHER CRITICAL                 
WEATHER AREA WOULD BE EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE SAN LUIS               
VALLEY CENTER FLOOR AROUND ALAMOSA. WILL GO A FEW CATEGORIES BELOW              
MOS GUIDANCE. THERE COULD...ALSO...BE DRASTIC TEMPERATURE CHANGES               
ALONG AND WEST OF I-25 CORRIDOR GIVEN THE WINDY AND NON-WINDY AREAS.            
METZE                                                                           
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)                                                         
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR SUNDAY WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS                  
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT EASTERN SLOPES...AND SNOW                     
AMOUNTS FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.                   
JET STREAM SAGS SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS NEXT SHORTWAVE             
BEGINS TO CARVE OUT THE TROF ACROSS THE NORTHERN US ROCKIES.                    
INITIALLY CROSS-SECTIONS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A POSSIBLE                    
MOUNTAIN WAVE SET UP...WITH MTN TOP STABLE LAYER WITH MTN TOP WINDS             
OF 50-55 KTS...AND SOME REVERSE SHEAR ALOFT.  MTN TOP STABLE LAYER              
IS NOT ALL THAT STRONG...WHICH LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW              
MUCH WIND WILL GET DEFLECTED DOWNWARD...BUT PER COORDINATION WITH               
BOU WILL ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH.  INITIALLY NORTHWEST COMPONENT                
WILL FAVOR THE RAMPART RANGE AREA...AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN EL PASO             
COUNTY. AS UPPER JET MOVES IN ALOFT DURING THE                                  
AFTERNOON...INCREASING FORWARD SHEAR SHOULD DIMINISH HIGH WIND                  
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...BY THEN WINDS AT ALL MTN TOP LEVELS WILL BE                
NEARING SUSTAINED HIGH WIND CRITERIA OF 50 MPH. IN FACT BY                      
AFTERNOON MTN TOP WINDS IN THE NAM12 INCREASE TO 60-70 KTS SO MTN               
TOP WINDS WILL BE VERY WINDY TO SAY THE LEAST. THUS...WILL INCLUDE              
THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE SANGRES AND WET MOUNTAINS IN THE HIGH WIND              
WATCH AS WELL. WITH THE MAIN ENERGY STILL TO OUR WEST...LEE TROF                
STAYS PINNED UP ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SE MTS...SO STRONG              
GUSTY WINDS WILL MAINLY STAY CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG/WEST OF                    
INTERSTATE 25. ANYWHERE WHERE THE WINDS PICK UP OVER OLD SNOW COVER...BLOWING   
SNOW COULD BE AN ISSUE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAIN PASSES...AND              
ALONG I-25 OVER MONUMENT HILL. LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE               
ON SUNDAY...THEN RAMP UP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE NEXT                 
SHORTWAVE TROF/UPPER JET MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. CENTRAL MOUNTAINS              
MAY PICK UP ANOTHER 2-6 INCHES OF SNOWFALL FROM SUN AFTERNOON                   
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SAWATCH AND                  
MOSQUITO RANGES MAY ALSO SEE WINDS NEARING HIGH WIND CRITERIA WITH              
SUSTAINED VALUES NEARING 50 MPH. HAVE DECIDED NOT TO INCLUDE THEM               
IN THE HIGH WIND WATCH...AS THIS COULD BE ADDRESSED IN A SNOW AND               
BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY. LATER SHIFTS WILL MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL.                
AS TROF MOVES ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT...VERY COLD AIR WILL SPILL                    
SOUTHEASTWARD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.  COULD SEE SOME JET INDUCED                
SNOW BANDS ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS SUNDAY             
NIGHT.  GFS IS STILL DEPICTING THIS SCENARIO...WHILE NAM12 SUGGESTS             
IT WILL BE TOO DRY.  SINCE NAM SEEMS TO HAVE A RATHER DRY BIAS                  
LATELY...WILL GO CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION AND KEEP SOME LOW GRADE             
POPS ACROSS ALL OF THE SOUTHEAST.  MONDAY WILL BE COLD THOUGH SOME              
GUSTY WINDS MAY HELP TEMPS RISE TO NEAR 30 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE            
PLAINS.  MTS WILL SEE TEMPS TOP OUT ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND               
TEENS.                                                                          
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE MID WEEK BRINGING A RETURN OF                 
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER.  -KT                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
PER SHORT TERM DISCUSSION....VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR                   
COS...PUB...AND ALS TERMINAL FORECAST AREAS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL             
FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT THE COS TERMINAL FORECAST AREA AFTER                
09Z/30...                                                                       
SURFACE........02007KT                                                          
500 FOOT.......29030KT                                                          
1000 FOOT......29035KT                                                          
1500 FOOT......29045KT                                                          
2000 FOOT......30055KT                                                          
METZE                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR                  
COZ073-075-080>082-084-085.                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
17/31                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
417 AM MST SAT DEC 29 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
...NEW RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE AT ALAMOSA THIS MORNING(12/29)...                 
...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/DAMAGE WINDS EAST PIKES PEAK/RAMPART RANGE              
LATE TONIGHT...                                                                 
CURRENTLY...LOW TEMPERATURE FOR ALAMOSA...SO FAR...HAS BEEN -29F AND            
THAT IS A NEW RECORD FOR 12/29. THE OLD RECORD WAS -28F/1966.  THERE            
IS STILL PLENTY OF CHANCES FOR THE ALAMOSA TEMPERATURE TO DROP                  
FURTHER EARLY THIS MORNING.  MEANWHILE...THE OTHER LOW LYING                    
AREAS(E.G. VALLEYS) WERE AROUND...OR JUST BELOW...0F.  WESTERLY                 
CHINOOK FLOW IS ALREADY SHOWING ITSELF WITH TEMPERATURES STEADY OR SLOWLY       
WARMING DURING THE NIGHT JUST WEST OF I-25 FROM 6K-9K FT.                       
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE TEENS AND 20S WITH COLORADO                   
SPRINGS...PUEBLO WEST...AND CANON CITY WARMING INTO THE                         
20S...WHILE LOWER ARKANSAS TEMPERATURE READINGS                                 
(KPUB...KLHX...KLAA) ARE STILL IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.  WATER VAPOR               
IMAGERY AND RUC MODEL UPPER AIR ANALYSES REVEALED WEST- NORTHWEST               
FLOW ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE WESTERN US. NEXT SIGNIFICANT                 
UPPER LEVEL JET WAS ABOUT TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN.                         
TODAY...WESTERLY CHINOOK FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL                  
ROCKIES. A LITTLE MORE MIXING AND SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY            
WARMER TEMPERATURES...EXCEPT IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY CENTER FLOOR                
WHERE THE TRAPPED COLD AIR/STRONG INVERSION/LOW SUN ANGLE SHOULD                
MAINTAIN SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES AND MAYBE GETTING INTO THE TEENS            
FOR ALAMOSA. WENT BELOW MOS GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY MET MOS...FOR ALS             
TODAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND OROGRAPHIC WIND COMPONENT TO            
GENERATE SOME SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AROUND            
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.                                     
TONIGHT...INTERESTING SCENARIO POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS              
OF SOUTHERN CO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE                         
NORTHWESTERLY AS THE 100-120KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK MOVES OVER                
CO...EXCEPT WESTERLY FLOW AROUND MOUNTAIN TOP. MOUNTAIN TOP STABLE              
LAYER DOES DEVELOP FOR PIKES PEAK/RAMPART RANGE AND MAYBE THE                   
WET/SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AFTER 05Z/30. 12KM NAM DOES HAVE SOME            
REVERSE SHEAR ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF PIKES PEAK AND THE RAMPART               
RANGE...BUT THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH OF A PRESSURE JUMP IN              
THE 12KM NAM DATA. TOUGH CALL. ALSO...THE VERTICAL SHEAR TRANSITIONS            
FROM REVERSE TO STRONG FORWARD SHEAR TOWARDS SUN MORNING. COULD SEE             
SOME WIND GUSTS OF 70-80 MPH ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF PIKES PEAK             
AND 55-65 MPH ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF RAMPART RANGE AFTER 05Z/30            
AND ESPECIALLY JUST BEFORE SUNRISE SUN. ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY...IT              
WOULD MAINLY BE ALONG AND WEST OF I-25...WHERE EAST OF I-25 THE WIND            
WOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL...WILL START A HIGH              
WIND WATCH(HW.A) FOR TELLER AND EL PASO COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT AND              
IT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY/               
CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL                     
MOUNTAINS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. FOR AN 18 HOUR                          
PERIOD...THERE COULD BE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-6 INCHES FOR MAINLY             
THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 9K FT MSL. ALSO...BLOWING SNOW COULD BE A              
PROBLEM FOR THOSE AREAS... ESPECIALLY HIGH MOUNTAIN PASSES. WILL                
HOLD OFF ISSUING ANY SNOW/BLOWING SNOW ADVISORIES FOR THOSE AREAS               
AND HIT IT IN THE DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE. THE OTHER CRITICAL                 
WEATHER AREA WOULD BE EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE SAN LUIS               
VALLEY CENTER FLOOR AROUND ALAMOSA. WILL GO A FEW CATEGORIES BELOW              
MOS GUIDANCE. THERE COULD...ALSO...BE DRASTIC TEMPERATURE CHANGES               
ALONG AND WEST OF I-25 CORRIDOR GIVEN THE WINDY AND NON-WINDY AREAS.            
METZE                                                                           
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)                                                         
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR SUNDAY WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS                  
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT EASTERN SLOPES...AND SNOW                     
AMOUNTS FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.                   
JET STREAM SAGS SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS NEXT SHORTWAVE             
BEGINS TO CARVE OUT THE TROF ACROSS THE NORTHERN US ROCKIES.                    
INITIALLY CROSS-SECTIONS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A POSSIBLE                    
MOUNTAIN WAVE SET UP...WITH MTN TOP STABLE LAYER WITH MTN TOP WINDS             
OF 50-55 KTS...AND SOME REVERSE SHEAR ALOFT.  MTN TOP STABLE LAYER              
IS NOT ALL THAT STRONG...WHICH LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW              
MUCH WIND WILL GET DEFLECTED DOWNWARD...BUT PER COORDINATION WITH               
BOU WILL ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH.  INITIALLY NORTHWEST COMPONENT                
WILL FAVOR THE RAMPART RANGE AREA...AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN EL PASO             
COUNTY. AS UPPER JET MOVES IN ALOFT DURING THE                                  
AFTERNOON...INCREASING FORWARD SHEAR SHOULD DIMINISH HIGH WIND                  
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...BY THEN WINDS AT ALL MTN TOP LEVELS WILL BE                
NEARING SUSTAINED HIGH WIND CRITERIA OF 50 MPH. IN FACT BY                      
AFTERNOON MTN TOP WINDS IN THE NAM12 INCREASE TO 60-70 KTS SO MTN               
TOP WINDS WILL BE VERY WINDY TO SAY THE LEAST. THUS...WILL INCLUDE              
THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE SANGRES AND WET MOUNTAINS IN THE HIGH WIND              
WATCH AS WELL. WITH THE MAIN ENERGY STILL TO OUR WEST...LEE TROF                
STAYS PINNED UP ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SE MTS...SO STRONG              
GUSTY WINDS WILL MAINLY STAY CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG/WEST OF                    
INTERSTATE 25. ANYWHERE WHERE THE WINDS PICK UP OVER OLD SNOW COVER...BLOWING   
SNOW COULD BE AN ISSUE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAIN PASSES...AND              
ALONG I-25 OVER MONUMENT HILL. LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE               
ON SUNDAY...THEN RAMP UP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE NEXT                 
SHORTWAVE TROF/UPPER JET MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. CENTRAL MOUNTAINS              
MAY PICK UP ANOTHER 2-6 INCHES OF SNOWFALL FROM SUN AFTERNOON                   
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SAWATCH AND                  
MOSQUITO RANGES MAY ALSO SEE WINDS NEARING HIGH WIND CRITERIA WITH              
SUSTAINED VALUES NEARING 50 MPH. HAVE DECIDED NOT TO INCLUDE THEM               
IN THE HIGH WIND WATCH...AS THIS COULD BE ADDRESSED IN A SNOW AND               
BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY. LATER SHIFTS WILL MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL.                
AS TROF MOVES ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT...VERY COLD AIR WILL SPILL                    
SOUTHEASTWARD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.  COULD SEE SOME JET INDUCED                
SNOW BANDS ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS SUNDAY             
NIGHT.  GFS IS STILL DEPICTING THIS SCENARIO...WHILE NAM12 SUGGESTS             
IT WILL BE TOO DRY.  SINCE NAM SEEMS TO HAVE A RATHER DRY BIAS                  
LATELY...WILL GO CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION AND KEEP SOME LOW GRADE             
POPS ACROSS ALL OF THE SOUTHEAST.  MONDAY WILL BE COLD THOUGH SOME              
GUSTY WINDS MAY HELP TEMPS RISE TO NEAR 30 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE            
PLAINS.  MTS WILL SEE TEMPS TOP OUT ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND               
TEENS.                                                                          
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE MID WEEK BRINGING A RETURN OF                 
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER.  -KT                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
PER SHORT TERM DISCUSSION....VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR                   
COS...PUB...AND ALS TERMINAL FORECAST AREAS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL             
FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT THE COS TERMINAL FORECAST AREA AFTER                
09Z/30...                                                                       
SURFACE........02007KT                                                          
500 FOOT.......29030KT                                                          
1000 FOOT......29035KT                                                          
1500 FOOT......29045KT                                                          
2000 FOOT......30055KT                                                          
METZE                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR                  
COZ073-075-080>082-084-085.                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
17/31                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY                                               
1108 PM EST SUN DEC 30 2007                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE VIRGINIA COAST WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF LONG               
ISLAND OVERNIGHT...BEFORE DEPARTING BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.                  
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN QUICKLY PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA.                
A POTENT ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON                  
TUESDAY...USHERING BITTERLY COLD AIR BEHIND IT AS CANADIAN HIGH                 
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED INTO              
THE WEEKEND.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...                                       
DRY SLOT HAD WORKED ITS WAY INTO THE AREA...WITH EARLIER SNOW/SLEET             
WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC CHANGING TO FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WE LOSE MID              
LEVEL MOISTURE AND AS TEMPS ALOFT WARM ABOVE FREEZING. SURFACE                  
TEMPERATURES FARTHER SOUTH/EAST HAVE REMAINED ABOVE FREEZING...WITH             
PRECIPITATION PRIMARILY RAIN. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW OVER SOUTHERN CT             
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING OVER MOST               
INTERIOR SECTIONS AS WELL...WITH PRECIP CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT                  
FREEZING DRIZZLE/SLEET THERE AS WELL.                                           
BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIP ORGANIZING OVER EASTERN PA MAY YET PIVOT                 
EASTWARD INTO THE AREA...IN TANDEM WITH COLDER AIR MOVING BACK INTO             
THE AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE VA COAST              
TO SE OF MONTAUK OVERNIGHT...WITH A CHANGE BACK TO MOSTLY SNOW IN               
ORANGE/PUTNAM/W PASSAIC COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND SNOW/SLEET                
ELSEWHERE LATE. HAVE KEPT WINTER WX ADVISORY UP WHERE IT WAS ALREADY            
POSTED...BUT HAVE CUT ACCUMULATIONS TO 2-4 INCHES FOR                           
ORANGE/PUTNAM/W PASSAIC AND 1-3 ELSEWHERE...WITH ADDED MENTION OF               
SOME ICING.                                                                     
AS THE LOW PASSES SE OF LONG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS              
WILL PICK UP ACROSS THE AREA. ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL FILTER DOWN INTO             
THE AREA TO TURN PRECIP OVER TO SNOW/SLEET IN THE COUNTIES JUST                 
SOUTH OF THE ADVISORY AREA INCLUDING PORTIONS OF NYC...AND A COATING            
TO AN INCH OF SNOW MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE.                                       
HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER MINS IN MOST PLACES PER OBS AND BLEND            
OF NAM 2M/MAV TEMPS UNDER CUT A COUPLE OF DEGREES...WITH MID 30S                
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE.                                     
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                      
PRECIP WILL WIND DOWN AS A PERIOD OF SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF WITH              
MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. SKIES CLEAR OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON            
AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC BY MIDDAY...THEN OFFSHORE              
MON NIGHT. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUE...               
MOVING OFFSHORE BY TUE NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LIKELY                     
POPS...AS THERE WEREN/T ANY MAJOR CHANGES THAT WERE NEEDED TO BE                
MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FCST. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON                 
THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM. TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW                 
THE THE NORTH...AND WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN TO THE SOUTH. PRECIP WILL              
TAPER OFF AS ALL SNOW TUE NIGHT. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY                  
HAVE TO BE POSTED FOR ORANGE/PUTNAM/NORTHERN FAIRFIELD COUNTIES                 
FOR TUE...AS OVER 3" SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE...BUT WILL WAIT FOR                  
FCST TO BE REFINED.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                        
AS THE STORM HEADS OUT FARTHER INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON                   
WED...THE TRAILING H5 TROUGH AXIS PASSES EAST. H8 FLOW IS WEAKLY                
CYCLONIC...SO MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY BUT WITH ABUNDANT              
INSTABILITY STRATOCU. EASTERN SECTIONS COULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS              
AS DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW.             
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COLD SIDE...DROPPING TO AROUND -12C TO              
-14C AT 925 MB IN THE AFTERNOON. IT MIGHT BE A DAY WHERE HIGHS OCCUR            
IN THE MORNING...PROBABLY REACHING ONLY 25-30. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS            
WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER...WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING TO AROUND             
ZERO LATE WED NIGHT IN NYC....AND -5 TO -10 IN SOME INLAND SPOTS.               
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BEGINS TO BUILD IN ON THU. IT WILL             
BE MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT STILL COLDER THAN NORMAL. LOW LEVEL                       
THICKNESSES SUPPORT EVEN COLDER HIGH TEMPS THAN THOSE OF WED...                 
REMAINING IN THE 20S THROUGHOUT.                                                
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON                  
FRI...WITH A DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW. MODERATION WILL BE SLOWER THAN             
MOS SUGGESTS ON FRI...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S THROUGHOUT...BUT SHOULD             
KICK IN FOR SAT/SUN WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S...PERHAPS NEARING 50 IN               
NYC METRO ON SUN. A WARM FRONT PASSING TO THE NORTH/WEST COULD BRING            
THICKENING HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS SAT NIGHT AND SUN...BUT LOW LEVELS             
WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY...SO NO PRECIP EXPECTED. NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP            
APPEARS TO BE LATE SUN NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT.                 
TEMPS SHOULD RUN AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN MOS WITH                  
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER...MAKING FOR AN ALL RAIN EVENT                   
SUN NIGHT.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
CONDITIONS SHOULD DROP TO MVFR BY 01Z OR 02Z ACROSS WESTERN                     
TERMINALS...02Z TO 03Z AT KISP...KBDR AND KGON. IFR/LIFR TO FOLLOW              
BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z. LATEST ACARS SOUNDINGS ACROSS NYC INDICATE                 
THAT THE GFS IS VERIFYING BETTER THAN THE NAM. THE WARM NOSE IN                 
THE NAM IS ABOUT 2 DEGREES TOO HIGH AT 800 MB. THE RUC IS VERIFIES              
EVEN BETTER...BUT THIS IS TO BE EXPECTED SINCE IT USES ACARS                    
SOUNDINGS IN IT.                                                                
-SN IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT P-TYPE AT                                    
KSWF BUT MAY BRIEFLY MIX WITH -IP AT TIMES THROUGH 09Z. LOOKING                 
UPSTREAM...KMPO (AND KDXR) HAVE CHANGED TO FZRA OVER THE LAST                   
HOUR. THIS IS BOTHERSOME AND INDICATES THAT WARMER AIR IS MOVING                
IN ALOFT. RUC INDICATES ABOUT A 3 HOUR PERIOD OF A WARM NOSE AT                 
KSWF BETWEEN 04Z AND 07Z WHICH IS WHEN THERE COULD BE SOME IP                   
MIXING IN...BUT IF THE WARM LAYER IS LARGER THAN THE PROFILE                    
INDICATES WE COULD BE LOOKING AT PRECIP CHANGING TO FZRA. NOT                   
CONFIDENT ENOUGH THAT THIS WILL OCCUR...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN                 
THE TAF.                                                                        
KJFK...KLGA...KEWR...KTEB AND KISP SHOULD ALL REMAIN RAIN                       
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE EVENT...BUT COULD CHANGE OVER TO -SN AT                 
THE END (BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z).                                                  
SO ACCORDING TO THE RUC...THE REMAINING TERMINALS (KBDR...KGON                  
AND KHPN)...WHICH WERE THE TOUGH ONES SINCE THEY REMAIN THE                     
CLOSEST TO THE RAIN/SNOW LINE...ALL REMAIN -RA FOR MAJORITY OF THE              
EVENT AS WELL POSSIBLY CHANGING TO -SN AT THE END TOO.                          
E/NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO THE N THEN NW AS THE COASTAL LOW              
PASSES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING.                    
PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z AND IT                
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AN HOUR OR TWO LONGER THAN WHAT IS IN THE               
00Z TAFS...BUT WILL WATCH RADAR AND ADJUST ACCORDINGLY.                         
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TO ALL TERMINALS BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z WITH                 
ONLY GUSTY NW WINDS TO CONTEND WITH. SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD RANGE               
BETWEEN 12 AND 17KT WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KT.                            
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR REMAINS THROUGH                  
MONDAY NIGHT. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN LIKELY TUESDAY AND                   
TUESDAY EVENING AS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT PASS                   
ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN NEAR THE COAST...RAIN/SNOW INTERIOR. THIS                 
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY GUSTY W-NW FLOW LATER TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AS              
THE OFFSHORE LOW INTENSIFIES AND DRAWS DOWN ARCTIC AIR. LIGHT SNOW              
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY...OTHERWISE DRY.              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...                                                  
SCA DELAYED FOR THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS UNTIL WINDS PICK UP ON THE                
BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW. OTHERWISE...SCA UP FOR THE              
OCEAN AS WIND GUSTS WILL BE OVER 25 KT...WITH SEAS 4-6 FT. AFTER THE            
LOW DEPARTS ON MON...WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH. WITH A             
SHOT OF CAA...AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE WATERS...THERE               
COULD BE OCNL GALE FORCE GUSTS DURING MON AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY                 
STRONG SCA FOR NOW...AND LET MID SHIFT DECIDE IF GALES WILL BE MORE             
PREVALENT. FLAGS COME DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST MON EVENING...ENDING ON            
ALL WATERS BY MIDNIGHT. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH               
MIDDAY TUE. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING AT LEAST SCA CONDITIONS WITH              
GALES POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. DUE TO STRONGER CAA AND A STRONGER                   
GRADIENT...THINK THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR GALES LATE TUE.              
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...                                               
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LOW LEVEL CAA/INSTABILITY WILL                   
COMBINE TO PRODUCE NW GALES ON THE OCEAN WED THROUGH THU MORNING...             
AND SCA CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN SHOULD                
COME TO AN END LATE THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE                  
WATERS...BUT COULD RETURN TO THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS FRI NIGHT VIA             
A STRENGTHENING WSW FLOW AS THE CORE OF THE HIGH PASSES OFF THE MID             
ATLANTIC COAST.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 1/2 TO 2/3 INCH QPF THROUGH MON              
MORNING. ANOTHER SYSTEM ON TUE COULD PRODUCE UP TO 1/2 INCH QPF.                
&&                                                                              
.EQUIPMENT...                                                                   
KOKX WSR-88D IS FULLY OPERATIONAL...THOUGH A SOFTWARE/HARDWARE ISSUE            
WITH OUR AWIPS HAS CAUSED INTERRUPTIONS OF EXTERNAL DISSEMINATION.              
PLEASE CONTACT US IF YOU NOTICE THAT KOKX RADAR IS NOT AVAILABLE.               
&&                                                                              
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ005>008.              
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ067>070.              
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ002.                  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR                 
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345.                                                    
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY NIGHT FOR                   
     ANZ350-353.                                                                
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ355.                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...BG/MPS                                                               
NEAR TERM...BG                                                                  
SHORT TERM...MPS                                                                
LONG TERM...BG                                                                  
AVIATION...AL                                                                   
MARINE...BG/MPS                                                                 
HYDROLOGY...BG/MPS                                                              
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
917 PM EST SUN DEC 30 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE DELMARVA REGION WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND DEEPEN            
OVERNIGHT...PASSING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.  THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO             
HEAD NORTHEAST ALONG THE EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY.  SNOW                
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS              
BY LATE MONDAY MORNING.  ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE            
REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF                    
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.  MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW IN THE             
WAKE OF THIS STORM FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK.                          
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...                                                  
ONCE AGAIN WE ARE DEALING WITH A DOUBLE BARREL STORM SYSTEM BASED ON            
THE LATEST 13KM RUC AND MSAS ANALYSIS. THIS TIME THE COASTAL LOW                
REALLY IS THE PRIMARY STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY FORMING NEAR THE                   
DELMARVA REGION WITH A SECONDARY/INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MID             
ATLANTIC REGION/PA.  IT WILL BE A FAST MOVING SYSTEM BASED ON THE               
FAST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND THE MAIN SFC WAVE NEVER CLOSES              
OFF BASED ON THE MODEL GUIDANCE.                                                
THE RADAR TRENDS FROM THE KENX RADAR AND NEIGHBORING SITES HAS BEEN             
FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO SATURATE AND COOL.  WE HAVE SEEN SUDDEN                   
EVAPORATIVE COOLING/WET BULBING AT KPOU AROUND 00Z...AND WE EVEN                
HAVE HAD A FEW FLAKES HERE AT CESTM...AND AT THE AIRPORT BETWEEN                
01Z-02Z.  THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FORCING WITH THIS INITIAL BURST OF SNOW             
WILL BE WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH WITH ITS ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC                 
LIFT.  AROUND 06Z...THE H850-700 FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WITH THE               
COASTAL LOW SHOULD PRODUCE A DECENT MESOSCALE SNOWBAND OVER THE                 
CAPITAL REGION...THE BERKSHIRES...SRN VT...AND THE CATSKILLS.  SNOW             
RATES MAY EXCEED AN INCH AN HOUR FOR A 3-HOUR STRETCH.  WE HAVE NOT             
CHANGED HEADLINES...BECAUSE THE MAX QPF FROM THE                                
PLUMES...ENSEMBLES...GFS...AND NAM PER THE 18Z GUIDANCE IS STILL                
AROUND A HALF AN INCH.  THIS EVENT WILL GO DOWN TO SNOW RATIOS.  IF             
IT IS AROUND 10:1...THEN THE CURRENT HEADLINES LOOK FINE.  WE ARE               
GOING TO STICK WITH THEM.  HIGHER SNOW RATIOS WOULD MAKE IT DICEY               
FOR THE CAPITAL REGION...AND TACONICS.  WE BELIEVE THE HIGHER                   
ELEVATIONS WILL SATURATE THE QUICKEST HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF                   
GETTING 7 OR MORE INCHES IN 12 HOURS.                                           
SOME SLEET SHOULD STILL MIX IN OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN            
TACONICS...AND LITCHFIELD HILLS WITH THERMAL PROFILES INDICATING                
ABOVE FREEZING AIR MOVING IN THE 850-700 LAYER THERE. KPOU AT 02Z IS            
NOW REPORTING UNKNOWN PCPN...WHICH IS LIKELY SLEET.                             
THEREFORE...KEEPING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD.                       
THE SNOW SHOULD END QUICKLY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN                         
12Z-16Z...WITH THE SNOW LINGERING WITH THE H850-700 DEFORMATION AXIS            
FROM ALY NORTH AND WEST TO THE CYCLONE.                                         
WE WILL RETOOLING POPS AND TEMPS IN THE GRIDS A BIT AND KEEP THE                
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS INTACT WITH 5-10 INCHES OVER THE ERN                     
CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES...AND SRN VT.  EXPECT 3-8 INCHES EVERYWHERE              
ELSE IN THE ALY FCST AREA.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...BRIEF BREAK IN               
BETWEEN EVENTS MONDAY EVENING AS WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN. NEXT SYSTEM              
FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...OVERALL THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED                 
SOUTHWARD WITH SURFACE LOW OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE HAS              
BEEN ONLY MINOR CHANGES BETWEEN THE 06Z AND 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS BUT             
THE NAM HAS TRENDED JUST A TAD FARTHER SOUTH. BASICALLY HAVE A LOW              
PASSING OVER NEW YORK STATE WITH COASTAL DEVELOPMENT BEING INITIATED            
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE COASTAL LOW NOT BECOMING THE DOMINATE LOW            
UNTIL WEDNESDAY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN            
STREAM PHASES WITH THIS SYSTEM AND A DEEP TROUGH DIGS OVER THE                  
EASTERN UNITED STATES. WILL LIKELY NEED HEADLINES FOR THIS STORM                
WITH MODERATE/HEAVY SNOW FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...UPPER HUDSON             
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VERMONT AND LIGHT/ MODERATE SNOW ACROSS THE REST            
OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME...WILL MENTION IN HAZARDOUS                  
WEATHER OUTLOOK AND DEAL WITH TONIGHT`S STORM FIRST.                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                        
RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD WEATHER WISE IN TERMS OF ADDITIONAL LOW                 
PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. INITIALLY...THE              
REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS WEDNESDAY THROUGH             
FRIDAY MORNING. MAY EVEN NEED OUR FIRST WIND CHILL HEADLINES                    
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WIND OF AROUND 10 MPH REMAINS AND TEMPS DROP TO            
BETWEEN 10 BELOW ZERO AND 10 ABOVE. MAINLY DRY WEDNESDAY THROUGH                
FRIDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION...BUT THERE WILL              
BE SOME LEFTOVER CYCLONIC FLOW/LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ON                      
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT ALSO LIKELY TO GET INTO THE 10 BELOW            
TO 10 ABOVE RANGE...BUT LITTLE IF ANY WIND EXPECTED THEN.                       
MAINLY DRY INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF PCPN            
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT PRIMARILY THE RESULT OF A WARM                 
ADVECTION PATTERN AMD WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH.                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                      
LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE DELMARVA REGION AROUND 03Z               
WILL SPREAD A MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS ERN NY OVERNIGHT.               
THE LOW WILL BE NEAR CAPE COD BY 12Z MON...BEFORE MOVING FURTHER                
NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY 18Z MON.                               
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS              
BTWN 01Z-05Z FROM KPOU NORTH TO KGFL.  AFTER 05Z...EXPECT WIDESPREAD            
IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL.  BTWN                    
13Z-16Z...THE SNOW WILL TAPER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS            
AND VSBYS.  EXPECT FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR LEVELS              
FOR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE 16Z-20Z TIME FRAME.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL                  
RETURN AFTER 20Z MON.                                                           
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE N/NE AT 5 KTS OR LESS TIL ABOUT 12Z.               
THE WINDS WILL SHIFT THE W/NW AT 8-15 12Z-18Z.  THE WINDS WILL BE               
BRISK AT KALB IN THE LATE AM INTO THE PM DUE TO CHANNELING DOWN THE             
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY WITH SUSTAINED W/NW WINDS AROUND 15 KTS AND                 
GUSTS TO 25 KTS.                                                                
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
MON PM...BECOMING VFR.                                                          
TUE...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH SN.                                              
WED...VFR...WDLY SCT -SHSN.                                                     
THU-FRI...VFR...NO SIG WX.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS            
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. MOST OF THE PCPN EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT             
SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW OR SLEET. SNOW MELT WILL BE                  
MINIMAL OR NON-EXISTENT MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH AT OR BELOW                    
FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY...AND A SLOW WARMUP DURING NEXT            
WEEKEND.  IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TUESDAY...THE                  
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK LOOKS VERY COLD WHICH WILL START TO BUILD ICE                
AGAIN ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.                                               
&&                                                                              
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST                
     MONDAY FOR CTZ001-013.                                                     
NY...HEAVY SNOW WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY              
     FOR NYZ047-051-058-063.                                                    
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST                
     MONDAY FOR NYZ060-061-064>066.                                             
     SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR               
     NYZ032-033-038>043-048>050-052>054-059-082>084.                            
MA...HEAVY SNOW WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY              
     FOR MAZ001-025.                                                            
VT...HEAVY SNOW WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY              
     FOR VTZ013>015.                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...TAW/IAA                                                              
NEAR TERM...TAW                                                                 
AVIATION...TAW                                                                  
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY                                               
841 PM EST SUN DEC 30 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC...PASSING SOUTH AND            
EAST OF LONG ISLAND DURING THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE DEPARTING BY EARLY              
MONDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN QUICKLY PASSES TO THE                 
SOUTH OF THE AREA. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON              
TUESDAY...USHERING BITTERLY COLD AIR BEHIND IT AS CANADIAN HIGH                 
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED INTO              
THE WEEKEND.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...                                       
MODELS COMING INTO FAIR AGREEMENT REGARDING THE STORM SYSTEM                    
CURRENTLY STRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE LOW WILL FIND ITSELF            
JUST OVER THE DELMARVA AREA BY 00Z...RAPIDLY DEEPENING FROM ABOUT               
1010 MB TO 1003 MB AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TO A POINT ABOUT 100 MILES             
SOUTH AND EAST OF KMTP TOWARDS DAYBREAK.                                        
MAIN ISSUE IS GOING TO BE PTYPE. BASED ON NAM AND GFS BUFKIT                    
SOUNDINGS...LOOKS LIKE A FAIR AMOUNT OF WARM AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE            
MIDDLE LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY KEEPING              
PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN FOR SOUTHERN LOCATIONS...MIXING WITH                 
SLEET AFTER MIDNIGHT. FURTHER TO THE NORTH...PTYPE MAY START OUT AS             
A PERIOD OF RAIN BEFORE MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO SNOW THIS                   
EVENING. WILL ALSO SEE SLEET MIXING WITH THE SNOW DURING THE                    
OVERNIGHT. THESE SIGNATURES WERE INDICATED ON BOTH NAM AND GFS                  
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. CHANGES WERE NOT NEEDED FOR THE WINTER WEATHER                
ADVISORY...AS 3-5" OF SNOW/SLEET WILL FALL ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS             
OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CT.                
THERE MAY BE A THIN SWATH OF 1" TO MAYBE 2" ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS            
OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST              
NJ. NYC/LONG ISLAND AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCALES ARE EXPECTED TO               
PICK UP LESS THAN AN INCH OF SLUSHY ACCUMULATION...AND MAINLY ON                
COLDER AND GRASSY SURFACES. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR NORTHERN AND                   
WESTERN PORTIONS OF ORANGE COUNTY. QPF WAS A BIT HIGHER THAN                    
PREVIOUSLY FCST. STILL THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WARM AIR ALOFT TO             
CAP ACCUMULATIONS AT 5"...BUT NAM/GFS BUFKIT DATA DID INDICATE THAT             
UP TO 6" OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE. EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO                   
MONITOR TO DETERMINE IF A WARNING IS NEEDED IF MORE THAN 6" WOULD               
ACCUMULATE. IT/S CLOSE...BUT WILL HOLD AT A WINTER WEATHER                      
ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE.                                                     
TOWARDS DAYBREAK...AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE GULF OF MAINE...                
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP ACROSS THE AREA. ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL              
MIX DOWN TO THE AREA TO TURN PRECIP OVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING.                 
WITH 1/2" TO 3/4" QPF EXPECTED...WILL HAVE TO ALSO MONITOR FOR ANY              
LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING PROBLEMS WHERE PRECIP REMAINS MAINLY RAIN              
THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT.                                            
USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/FWC MOS GUIDANCE TO GET LOWS IN THE LOW-MID             
30S ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND UPPER 20S ACROSS THE                
INTERIOR.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                      
PRECIP WILL WIND DOWN AS A PERIOD OF SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF WITH              
MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. SKIES CLEAR OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON            
AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC BY MIDDAY...THEN OFFSHORE              
MON NIGHT. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUE...               
MOVING OFFSHORE BY TUE NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LIKELY                     
POPS...AS THERE WEREN/T ANY MAJOR CHANGES THAT WERE NEEDED TO BE                
MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FCST. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON                 
THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM. TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW                 
THE THE NORTH...AND WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN TO THE SOUTH. PRECIP WILL              
TAPER OFF AS ALL SNOW TUE NIGHT. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY                  
HAVE TO BE POSTED FOR ORANGE/PUTNAM/NORTHERN FAIRFIELD COUNTIES                 
FOR TUE...AS OVER 3" SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE...BUT WILL WAIT FOR                  
FCST TO BE REFINED.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                        
AS THE STORM HEADS OUT FARTHER INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON                   
WED...THE TRAILING H5 TROUGH AXIS PASSES EAST. H8 FLOW IS WEAKLY                
CYCLONIC...SO MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY BUT WITH ABUNDANT              
INSTABILITY STRATOCU. EASTERN SECTIONS COULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS              
AS DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW.             
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COLD SIDE...DROPPING TO AROUND -12C TO              
-14C AT 925 MB IN THE AFTERNOON. IT MIGHT BE A DAY WHERE HIGHS OCCUR            
IN THE MORNING...PROBABLY REACHING ONLY 25-30. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS            
WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER...WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING TO AROUND             
ZERO LATE WED NIGHT IN NYC....AND -5 TO -10 IN SOME INLAND SPOTS.               
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BEGINS TO BUILD IN ON THU. IT WILL             
BE MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT STILL COLDER THAN NORMAL. LOW LEVEL                       
THICKNESSES SUPPORT EVEN COLDER HIGH TEMPS THAN THOSE OF WED...                 
REMAINING IN THE 20S THROUGHOUT.                                                
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON                  
FRI...WITH A DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW. MODERATION WILL BE SLOWER THAN             
MOS SUGGESTS ON FRI...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S THROUGHOUT...BUT SHOULD             
KICK IN FOR SAT/SUN WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S...PERHAPS NEARING 50 IN               
NYC METRO ON SUN. A WARM FRONT PASSING TO THE NORTH/WEST COULD BRING            
THICKENING HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS SAT NIGHT AND SUN...BUT LOW LEVELS             
WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY...SO NO PRECIP EXPECTED. NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP            
APPEARS TO BE LATE SUN NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT.                 
TEMPS SHOULD RUN AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN MOS WITH                  
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER...MAKING FOR AN ALL RAIN EVENT                   
SUN NIGHT.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
CONDITIONS SHOULD DROP TO MVFR BY 01Z OR 02Z ACROSS WESTERN                     
TERMINALS...02Z TO 03Z AT KISP...KBDR AND KGON. IFR/LIFR TO FOLLOW              
BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z. LATEST ACARS SOUNDINGS ACROSS NYC INDICATE                 
THAT THE GFS IS VERIFYING BETTER THAN THE NAM. THE WARM NOSE IN                 
THE NAM IS ABOUT 2 DEGREES TOO HIGH AT 800 MB. THE RUC IS VERIFIES              
EVEN BETTER...BUT THIS IS TO BE EXPECTED SINCE IT USES ACARS                    
SOUNDINGS IN IT.                                                                
-SN IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT P-TYPE AT                                    
KSWF BUT MAY BRIEFLY MIX WITH -IP AT TIMES THROUGH 09Z. LOOKING                 
UPSTREAM...KMPO (AND KDXR) HAVE CHANGED TO FZRA OVER THE LAST                   
HOUR. THIS IS BOTHERSOME AND INDICATES THAT WARMER AIR IS MOVING                
IN ALOFT. RUC INDICATES ABOUT A 3 HOUR PERIOD OF A WARM NOSE AT                 
KSWF BETWEEN 04Z AND 07Z WHICH IS WHEN THERE COULD BE SOME IP                   
MIXING IN...BUT IF THE WARM LAYER IS LARGER THAN THE PROFILE                    
INDICATES WE COULD BE LOOKING AT PRECIP CHANGING TO FZRA. NOT                   
CONFIDENT ENOUGH THAT THIS WILL OCCUR...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN                 
THE TAF.                                                                        
KJFK...KLGA...KEWR...KTEB AND KISP SHOULD ALL REMAIN RAIN                       
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE EVENT...BUT COULD CHANGE OVER TO -SN AT                 
THE END (BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z).                                                  
SO ACCORDING TO THE RUC...THE REMAINING TERMINALS (KBDR...KGON                  
AND KHPN)...WHICH WERE THE TOUGH ONES SINCE THEY REMAIN THE                     
CLOSEST TO THE RAIN/SNOW LINE...ALL REMAIN -RA FOR MAJORITY OF THE              
EVENT AS WELL POSSIBLY CHANGING TO -SN AT THE END TOO.                          
E/NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO THE N THEN NW AS THE COASTAL LOW              
PASSES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING.                    
PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z AND IT                
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AN HOUR OR TWO LONGER THAN WHAT IS IN THE               
00Z TAFS...BUT WILL WATCH RADAR AND ADJUST ACCORDINGLY.                         
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TO ALL TERMINALS BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z WITH                 
ONLY GUSTY NW WINDS TO CONTEND WITH. SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD RANGE               
BETWEEN 12 AND 17KT WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KT.                            
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR REMAINS THROUGH                  
MONDAY NIGHT. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN LIKELY TUESDAY AND                   
TUESDAY EVENING AS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT PASS                   
ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN NEAR THE COAST...RAIN/SNOW INTERIOR. THIS                 
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY GUSTY W-NW FLOW LATER TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AS              
THE OFFSHORE LOW INTENSIFIES AND DRAWS DOWN ARCTIC AIR. LIGHT SNOW              
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY...OTHERWISE DRY.              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...                                                  
SCA WILL BE UP FOR ALL WATERS STARTING THIS EVENING AS WIND GUSTS               
WILL BE OVER 25 KT...AND WAVES WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FT ON THE OCEAN.               
AFTER THE LOW DEPARTS ON MON...WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD TO THE                 
SOUTH. WITH A SHOT OF CAA...AND A TIGHT GRADIENT ON THE WATERS...               
THERE COULD BE OCNL GALE FORCE GUSTS DURING MON AFTERNOON. WILL                 
CARRY STRONGLY WORDED SCA FOR NOW...AND LET MID SHIFT DECIDE IF                 
GALES WILL BE MORE PREVALENT. THINK A GALE EVENT WILL BE MARGINAL               
AT BEST. FLAGS COME DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST MON EVENING...ENDING ON              
ALL WATERS BY MIDNIGHT. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH               
MIDDAY TUE. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING AT LEAST SCA CONDITIONS WITH              
GALES POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. DUE TO STRONGER CAA AND A STRONGER                   
GRADIENT...THINK THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR GALES LATE TUE               
THAN LATE MON.                                                                  
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...                                               
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LOW LEVEL CAA/INSTABILITY WILL                   
COMBINE TO PRODUCE NW GALES ON THE OCEAN WED THROUGH THU                        
MORNING...AND SCA CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. SCA CONDITIONS ON THE                   
OCEAN SHOULD COME TO AN END LATE THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS              
OVER THE WATERS...BUT COULD RETURN TO THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS FRI              
NIGHT VIA A STRENGTHENING WSW FLOW AS THE CORE OF THE HIGH PASSES               
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
STORM SYSTEM TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH QPF                 
THROUGH MON MORNING. SNOW AND SNOW/SLEET IS EXPECTED INLAND...AND               
RAIN THEN RAIN/SLEET/SNOW IS EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST.                      
ANOTHER SYSTEM ON TUE COULD PRODUCE UP TO 1/2" QPF ACROSS THE                   
AREA.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.EQUIPMENT...                                                                   
KOKX WSR-88D IS FULLY OPERATIONAL...THOUGH A SOFTWARE/HARDWARE ISSUE            
WITH OUR AWIPS HAS CAUSED INTERRUPTIONS OF EXTERNAL DISSEMINATION.              
PLEASE CONTACT US IF YOU NOTICE THAT KOKX RADAR IS NOT AVAILABLE.               
&&                                                                              
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ005>008.              
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ067>070.              
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ002.                  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ335-338-355.         
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ330-340-345.             
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353.                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...MPS                                                                  
NEAR TERM...MPS                                                                 
SHORT TERM...MPS                                                                
LONG TERM...BG                                                                  
AVIATION...AL                                                                   
MARINE...BG/MPS                                                                 
HYDROLOGY...MPS                                                                 
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
108 AM EST SUN DEC 30 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND MOVE             
OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE                   
SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY...AND TRACK NORTHEAST PASSING WELL SOUTH OF              
LONG ISLAND SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUNDAY                  
EVENING AND TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN ONLY             
BRIEFLY BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT...THEN YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM            
WILL IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY...BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW. THIS               
CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY            
WITH A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS BEING USHERED INTO THE REGION IN ITS WAKE.           
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...                                         
THE 13KM RUC SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM OHIO AT 0100 UTC.             
THE MID LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO FLATTEN...AS WELL AS THE THE LOW                
LEVEL FLOW IS VEERING TO A 270 DEGREE TRAJECTORY. THE KTYX RADAR                
SHOWS THE WEAK LAKE BAND SHIFTING SOUTHWARD OVER THE TUG HILL                   
PLATEAU AND WRN ADIRONDACKS.  THE BAND HAS NARROWED AND SHRUNK.  THE            
LOWERING INVERSION TO 5 KFT PER THE KSYR BUFKIT NAM/GFS PROFILER                
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN TO ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS              
AND FLURRIES AFTER MIDNIGHT.  WE LOWERED POPS TO VERY LOW CHANCE AND            
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT.                
THE CLOUDS LOOK TO PERSIST NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY AND                 
CAPITAL REGION.  WE WENT FROM MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY NORTH AND PARTLY             
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR TO THE SOUTH.  WE RAISED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES                
OVER THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SRN VT WITH THE PERSISTENT CLOUDS.              
THE HOURLY T/TD/RH/WIND CHILL TRENDS WERE ALSO UPDATED.                         
NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...                              
MODELS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF A             
COASTAL LOW FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN                 
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT.            
THE GFS IS A TAD DEEPER AND HAS THE MOST QPF. NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN             
STREAM ENERGY PHASE WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE                 
SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY. THE LOW DEEPENS AND PASSES WELL SOUTH OF                
LONG ISLAND SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH SYSTEM SO FAR OFFSHORE SINGLE P-TYPE             
OF SNOW. UPPER SYSTEM IS OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE...SO A QUICKER SHOT.              
LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE HEAVIEST            
SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TAPERING OFF MONDAY MORNING. USED HPC QPF               
GUIDANCE AND TWEAKED IT SOME BETWEEN 06-12Z. AT THIS TIME HAS POSTED            
A SNOW ADVISORY FOR ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES FOR               
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES. THERE IS A CHANCE THE SNOW ADVISORY             
MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FARTHER NORTH...BUT IT IS A THIRD PERIOD                
ADVISORY AND POSTED IT WHERE HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE.                       
AGAIN RIDING BUILDS IN BRIEFLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BETWEEN             
SYSTEMS. CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES               
REGION TUESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE               
AREA. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY WILL NEED SNOW ADVISORIES FOR                    
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST BUT IT IS MUCH TO EARLY. SOUTHERN STREAM               
ENERGY INITIATES LOW DEVELOPMENT AND NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIVES               
OUT OF CANADA AND DIGS DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.            
THIS WILL BRING A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION.                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                  
RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD WEATHER WISE IN TERMS OF ADDITIONAL LOW                 
PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. INITIALLY...THE              
REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A VERY COLD AIRMASS THAT SURGES INTO THE            
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON STRONG NORTHWEST                
WINDS BEHIND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS            
FLOW WILL RESULT IN A TYPICAL CYCLONIC FLOW/LAKE EFFECT WEATHER                 
PATTERN FOR ABOUT 36 HOURS BEFORE THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER            
THE REGION THURSDAY.                                                            
PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR WILL LEAD TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY              
BEING THE COLDEST NIGHT AND DAY WE WILL HAVE HAD IN A COUPLE OF                 
WEEKS ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 10 BELOW TO 10            
ABOVE WITH A DECENT NORTHWEST WIND MOST OF THE NIGHT. HIGHS THURSDAY            
WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.                                         
STILL QUIET PCPN WISE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A WARMING TREND                 
EXPECTED. BY SATURDAY HIGH WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                      
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.               
THIS HIGH WILL BE IN CONTROL THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS...BEFORE AN AREA              
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND                
SEABOARD TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW/SLEET ACROSS MUCH OF ERN NY SUNDAY                
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.                                                      
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE NEXT 18 HOURS...EXCEPT FOR MVFR/IFR            
AT KPOU EARLY THIS MORNING WHERE FOG HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED. MOIST               
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP SOME BKN-OVC SKY COVER FROM KALB NORTH            
TO KGFL WITH CIGS IN THE 4-6 KFT AGL RANGE WITH ONLY SCT CLOUDS                 
PERSISTING SOUTH OF ALBANY. THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN IN THE AFTERNOON            
WITH THE APPROACHING LOW FROM THE SOUTH.  EXPECT BKN-OVC MID LEVEL              
CLOUDINESS AT 10-15 KFT AFTER 20Z...WITH SNOW ADVANCING FROM SOUTH              
TO NORTH STARTING AT KPOU AROUND 23Z...KALB AROUND 01Z AND KGFL                 
AROUND 04Z. SOME SLEET MAY MIX IN AT THE START AT KPOU AND ONCE PCPN            
STARTS CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR.                         
AS FOR WINDS...GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE BECOMING NORTHEAST LATE             
TODAY AT 4-6 KTS.                                                               
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
SUN NIGHT-MON AM...IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH SN MAINLY KALB SOUTH.               
MON PM...VFR.                                                                   
TUE...VFR/MVFR CIG IN -SN                                                       
WED...VFR...WDLY SCT -SHSN.                                                     
THU...VFR...NO SIG WX.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS            
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. MOST IF NOT ALL PCPN EXPECTED THROUGH              
NEXT SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. AFTER THIS AFTERNOON...              
SNOW MELT WILL BE MINIMAL AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO SOUTHERN VALLEY                
LOCATIONS. IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TUESDAY...THE                 
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK LOOKS VERY COLD WHICH WILL START TO BUILD ICE                
AGAIN ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.                                               
$$                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR                
     CTZ001-013.                                                                
NY...SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR                
     NYZ063>066.                                                                
MA...NONE.                                                                      
VT...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...11                                                                   
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA                                             
1239 AM EST SAT DEC 29 2007                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
LOW PRES WILL MOVE TO SW QUEBEC EARLY SAT. SECONDARY LOW PRES WILL              
PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SAT MORNING...AND BECOME THE                   
DOMINANT CENTER OVER THE MARITIMES BY SAT NIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL PASS            
OVER THE REGION ON SUN. A COASTAL LOW WILL INTENSIFY OFF THE MID                
ATLANTIC COAST SUN NIGHT AND PASS SE OF NANTUCKET ON MON MORNING.               
THIS LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO MUCH OF             
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUN NIGHT INTO MON. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL           
USHER COLDER AIR WED AND THU.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...                                         
18Z MODELS NOT DOING A GREAT JOB HANDLING INITIAL BURST OF RAIN                 
WORKING THROUGH EASTERN PA AT 9 PM...EVEN 01Z 13KM RUC IS A LITTLE              
SLOW. CURRENT TIMING INTO CT RIVER VALLEY JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TO            
COASTAL PLAIN BY 3 AM LOOKS REASONABLE...DESPITE PLENTY OF DRY AIR TO           
OVERCOME AT MID LEVELS PER 00Z SOUNDINGS. 00Z NAM TIMING IS A BIT               
BETTER BUT PROBABLY STILL A LITTLE SLOW.                                        
PRECIPITATION TYPE CONTINUES TO BE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT FOR                   
NORTHERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES HAVE MANAGED TO DROP OFF THIS EVENING              
DESPITE FAIRLY THICK CLOUD COVER...WITH MANY LOCATIONS IN UPPER 20S             
AND LOWER 30S AT 9 PM. WARMING WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE AS STRONG               
WARM ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY AT AT LEVELS...BUT SOME OF SHELTERED               
AND DEEPER VALLEYS WILL BE LAST TO WARM UP. WE USED 18Z NAM PARTIAL             
THICKNESSES WHICH BETTER REFLECT THIS LOW LEVEL COLD BUT OVERALL                
RESULT IS SIMILAR TO AFTERNOON FORECAST...IF ANYTHING A LITTLE LESS             
SNOWFALL WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY LATEST SREFS AND MODEL FORECAST             
SOUNDINGS.                                                                      
WE THINK MOST AREAS NORTH OF I-90 WILL START OUT AS A SNOW/SLEET MIX            
AND QUICKLY TRANSITION TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN. CORRIDOR BETWEEN I-90            
AND ROUTE 2 SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF ONSET...          
WHILE IT PROBABLY TAKES UNTIL SUNRISE SAT FOR OUR SW NH ZONES TO WARM           
UP ENOUGH FOR A CHANGE TO RAIN. THIS MEANS WE EXPECT AN INCH OR TWO             
OF SNOWFALL AT MOST IN FAR SW NH WITH A LIGHT COATING /0.10/ OF ICE.            
WE DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH IF ANY ICING ACROSS NORTHERN                 
MA...SO ADVISORY WILL NOT BE EXPANDED INTO THOSE AREAS.                         
OTHER ISSUE OVERNIGHT WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND CAPE            
COD AND ISLANDS. 18Z MODELS...ESPECIALLY NAM...SHOW VERY STRONG LOW             
LEVEL JET OF NEARLY 80KT REACHING SE COAST BY 12Z SAT. WHILE A STRONG           
INVERSION WILL PREVENT MOST OF THIS FROM GETTING DOWN TO SURFACE...             
AND NAM MAY BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR BORDERLINE              
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA SAT MORNING. WE DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE            
TO ISSUE ONE JUST YET...BUT WE WILL REASSESS WITH 00Z MODEL DATA.               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...                          
RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE LOW PRESSURE              
PASSES BY CAPE COD.                                                             
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER SHOWN ON ALL MODELS TO BE IN INCIPIENT            
STAGE OF DEVELOPMENT PASSING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT                  
BECOMING THE DOMINANT SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES THE MARITIMES SAT                 
EVENING. DOWNSLOPING WNW FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HELP CLEAR              
SKIES SAT AFTERNOON. DOWNSLOPING WIND AND RESIDUAL WARM TEMPS ALOFT             
SHOULD SUPPORT MILD TEMPS SAT AFTERNOON...EVEN WITH COLD AIR                    
ADVECTION BEGINNING TO SET IN. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BECOMES                   
NOTICEABLE SAT NIGHT AS TEMPS SHOULD DROP FAIRLY QUICKLY. THIS SHOULD           
PUT IN PLACE SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR TO SET THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT                
SYSTEM SUN NIGHT. MAVMOSGUIDE LOOKED REASONABLE FOR SAT NIGHT LOWS.             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                     
A PLOWABLE SNOW EVENT LIKELY FOR A PORTION OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT              
INTO MON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION.                
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...                                                        
OPERATIONAL GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN GGEM AND THE UKMET ALL COMING INTO               
BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING INCREASED CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL          
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. RECENT           
OPERATIONAL TRENDS BRING THE SURFACE LOW TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST.             
HOWEVER THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF           
PRECIPITATION AS WELL ACTUAL LOW TRACK. THE 12Z NAM AND 09Z SREF RUNS           
WERE TRACKING A WEAKER LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. IN ADDITION              
THE GFS ENSEMBLES INDICATED 4 OF ITS 12 MEMBERS FAVORING THIS                   
SCENARIO. OVERALL THE LOW TRACK AND INTENSIFICATION WILL DEPEND ON              
THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF A PACIFIC JET STREAK WHICH WILL ATTEMPT TO           
INTERSECT WITH A SECOND JET STREAK ENTERING THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING              
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO INTENSIFY. IN ADDITION SIGNIFICANT GULF AND             
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE.                                            
GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY AMONGST MODEL RUNS DECIDED USE A MODEL BLEND             
SIMILAR TO HPC. OVERALL DECIDED RAISE POPS TO LIKELY GIVEN RECENT               
TRENDS AND DECENT CONSENSUS AMONGST MOST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODEL               
GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES. CURRENT THERMAL PROFILES FAVOR MOSTLY                   
SNOW...BUT SOME RAIN AND SLEET COULD MIX IN ACROSS THE CAPE AND                 
ISLANDS GIVEN SOME STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION.           
REVIEWED THE LATEST HPC WINTER WEATHER DESK GRAPHIC AND COLLABORATED            
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. STRONG OMEGA AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC              
FORCING WITHIN THE LOWS DEFORMATION ZONE COULD YIELD A BAND OF                  
LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE             
CONCERNS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. STAY TUNED.                          
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...                                                  
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW OR             
SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE SURFACE HIGH                 
PRESSURE BUILDS WITH PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.          
MAIN TIMEFRAME OF CONCERN WILL BE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS                  
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. THE ECMWF REMAINS LEAST PROGRESSIVE            
REGARDING THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLDER AIR                   
FROM THE MIDWEST WHILE THE GFS IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE.                       
CURRENTLY DECIDED TO CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SNOW TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT      
GIVEN THE NEARBY COLD FRONT AND POTENTIAL INVERTED TROUGH SIGNATURE.            
ADDITIONAL OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAPE           
AND ISLANDS LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN COLD NORTH TO NORTHWEST              
FLOW. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO HPC/MOS GUIDANCE.                                  
VERY COLD WIND CHILLS FROM THE NEGATIVE TO POSITIVE SINGLE NUMBERS              
POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                   
FIRST BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL              
MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS AT MOST TERMINALS...THOUGH CEILINGS MAY LOWER           
TO MVFR NORTH OF I-90. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEGUN TO WARM AND ICING                
THREAT APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL THROUGH 12Z...ASIDE FROM SOME OF THE               
SHELTERED INTERIOR VALLEYS WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRAPL IS STILL             
POSSIBLE.                                                                       
NEXT BATCH OF RAIN WAS HEADING INTO METRO NYC AT 0530Z AND WILL REACH           
CT VALLEY TERMINALS BY 08Z AND COASTAL LOCATIONS BY 09Z. THIS WILL              
LOWER CONDITIONS TO IFR OVER MUCH OF AREA THROUGH 15Z OR SO...BEFORE            
CONDITIONS IMPROVE RAPIDLY TO VFR AROUND 18Z.                                   
STRONG S/SE WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE AT KHYA/KACK FROM 10Z-15Z WHEN               
LLWS IS EXPECTED FROM A 65KT LOW LEVEL JET. WE PLAYED IT A LITTLE               
CONSERVATIVE FOR GUSTS GIVEN STRONG INVERSION IN PLACE /32KT/...                
SO THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF REACHING 40KT GUSTS THIS MORNING.              
CLEARING SETS IN THIS AFTERNOON WITH DIMINISHING W/NW WINDS.                    
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...                                                       
SUNDAY...VFR                                                                    
SUN NIGHT AND MON...MVFR WITH POSSIBLE AREAS OF IFR IN SNOW. SLEET              
OR RAIN COLD MIX IN ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. NE WIND GUSTS TO 30-40 KT            
POSSIBLE ACROSS CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND.                                  
MON NIGHT...VFR.                                                                
TUE...MVFR WITH POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS.                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
RESIDUAL 5 TO 7 FT NE SWELL PERSISTS ON OUTER SE WATERS THIS EVENING.           
GALE WARNINGS REMAIN POSTED FOR MOST OF WATERS NEAR CAPE                        
COD...ESPECIALLY S AND E. NAM 18Z RUN LOOKS A LOT BEEFIER ON LOW                
LEVEL JET...SHOWING 75 TO 80 KT. ALTHOUGH LATEST GFS RUN STILL AT 60            
KT...BOTH NAM AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS NOW SHOWING AT LEAST MARGINAL            
GALE AT OR VERY NEAR SFC. IF MIXING HEIGHT STILL TOO LOW TO SUPPORT             
SUFFICIENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER...BELIEVE WE WILL LIKELY SEE IT WITH               
HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY. GLW PLACED NEAR LOW LEVEL JET CORE AND AXIS            
OF GREATEST INSTABILITY. SCA CONTINUES ELSEWHERE EXCEPT FOR BOSTON              
HARBOR FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT. BELIEVE NARAGANSETT BAY SCA WIND              
GUSTS WILL BE JUST MAINLY 08Z TO 16Z TIME FRAME. OVER MOST OF THE               
REST OF THE WATERS...SEAS AND W WIND GUSTS SAT AND EVE SHOULD KEEP              
HEADLINE GOING LONGER.                                                          
SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE             
WATERS.                                                                         
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...                                                      
NE GALES MAY OCCUR. RAISED WNA GUIDANCE ABOUT 2-3 FT.                           
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE...                                                         
WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY DIMINISH.                                                
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED...                                                    
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT WITH POSSIBLE GALES BY              
LATE WED.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
MA...NONE.                                                                      
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NHZ011-            
     015.                                                                       
RI...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ232-254-255.         
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231-              
     233>235-237-250.                                                           
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ236.             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...STRAUSS/THOMPSON                                                     
NEAR TERM...JWD                                                                 
SHORT TERM...THOMPSON                                                           
LONG TERM...STRAUSS                                                             
AVIATION...JWD                                                                  
MARINE...JWD                                                                    
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
300 PM EST SUN DEC 30 2007                                                      
...STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT TUESDAY WILL BRING MUCH COLDER AIRMASS              
TO THE REGION FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD ALONG WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD             
OF ADVISORY LEVELS CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...                        
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING UPPER AIR PATTERN                   
ACROSS THE CONUS CONTINUES DOMINATED BY LONG WAVE TROUGHING WITH AN             
AXIS ROUGHLY NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.                    
FORECAST AREA SEEING PLENTY OF HIGH/MID LEVEL SOUTHERN STREAM                   
MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH. STRONG MID              
LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST AS IT ROUNDS THE            
BASE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MARKED                 
DRYING ON EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY OVER TX/LA/MS SHOWS THIS                   
SHORTWAVE REMAINS A FAIRLY POTENT PIECE OF ENERGY.                              
AT THE SURFACE...WEAK COLD FRONT RUNNING FROM THE WESTERN FL                    
PANHANDLE...INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE                    
CAROLINAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN QUITE WIDESPREAD                 
THROUGH THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. STILL A             
SMALL CHANCE FOR ONE OR TWO OF THE STORM TO BECOME STRONG AND                   
POTENTIALLY MARGINALLY SEVERE AS ATMOSPHERIC SHEAR PROFILES ARE                 
FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CELLS. WOULD APPEAR THAT THERE WILL ONLY BE             
A BRIEF WINDOW DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WHEN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL               
DYNAMICS/THERMODYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE                   
MAXIMIZED. ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD THEN DIMINISH RAPIDLY INTO THE              
EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THE BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO              
THE CAROLINAS.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.                                    
MAIN DEEP LAYER (700-300MB) Q-G FORCING AND BEST UPPER LEVEL JET                
DYNAMICS EXIT RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING WITH THE                    
SHORTWAVE BRING AN END TO THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE                       
THUNDERSTORMS. EVEN STILL...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EASTWARD            
PROPAGATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK SYNOPTIC                   
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH SHOULD STILL KEEP               
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED WEAKER THUNDERSTORMS GOING INTO            
THE EVENING HOURS. TAPERING POPS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE AROUND THE                 
APALACHICOLA RIVER TO CHANCE 30-45 POPS FURTHER EAST TOWARD THE                 
SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY. AFTER MIDNIGHT JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW             
LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS TOWARD TAYLOR...DIXIE...AND LAFAYETTE                   
COUNTIES...BUT ESSENTIALLY THE RAINFALL SHOULD BE OVER. A BIT COOLER            
TONIGHT WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S OVER THE                
EASTERN BIG BEND TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S OVER THE FAR WEST.                 
PARTIAL CLEARING WILL ALSO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH ONLY THE            
FAR SOUTHEAST BIG BEND STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY BY SUNRISE MONDAY.                   
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD DURING MONDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER                 
WEATHER. SEASONABLE TEMPS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE                 
LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S NORTH AND MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S SOUTH. NORMALLY             
WARMER SPOTS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND MAY EVEN REACH THE LOWER             
70S DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF CLOUDCOVER (CLEARING LINE WILL BE IN THE             
VICINITY).                                                                      
ATTENTION THEN TURNS MONDAY NIGHT TO DEEP TROUGHING DIGGING SOUTH               
ACROSS MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. ASSOCIATED STRONG ARCTIC COLD                
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NIGHT CROSSING                
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AT THIS                     
TIME...EXPECTING A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE...MOST LIKELY JUST A BRIEF               
BAND OF CLOUDS. FRONT WILL PASS LATE ENOUGH THAT TEMPERATURES WILL              
NOT FALL MUCH BELOW CLIMO NORMS WITH UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 NORTH TO              
MIDDLE 40S SOUTH. HOWEVER...LOW TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING WILL HIGHLY               
DEPEND ON THE EXACT FRONTAL TIMING...AS EVEN A FEW HOURS WILL MAKE A            
DIFFERENCE.                                                                     
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE BEHIND THE FRONT AS DEEP              
AND MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING TAKES CONTROL OF THE EASTERN U.S.                 
DESPITE ACTUAL TEMPS REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S NORTH            
TO SOUTH TUESDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH WILL             
MAKE THIS FEEL COOLER. THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE                  
SEASON THUS FAR WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING FROM BETWEEN +6-10C EARLY              
TUESDAY MORNING TO -5 TO -10C LATER TUESDAY EVENING. THE COLD AIR               
ADVECTION WILL REALLY BEING TO BE FELT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY                  
EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE 40S AND 30S.              
GOOD CHANCE FOR A WIDESPREAD FREEZE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY                    
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S COMMON. CURRENT GRIDS               
ARE ACTUALLY ABOUT 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS US OUT            
OF HARD FREEZE CRITERIA. BUMPED TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES SINCE THE MAV            
HAS HAD A COOL BIAS SO FAR THIS WINTER SEASON WITH ITS LOWS.                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...WED THROUGH SUN.                                                   
STRONG CAA PATTERN CONTINUES WEDNESDAY AS SHARP UPPER TROUGH DIGS               
INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND 1045+MB HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE CENTRAL            
PLAINS. FREEZING TEMPS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH HARD                  
FREEZE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH GEORGIA. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 50             
DEGREES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON LEADING INTO THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE               
SEASON SO FAR. SFC HIGH WILL BE LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY             
NIGHT...NOT THE IDEAL POSITION FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT THE                
GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX ENOUGH TO ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET IN THE COLD              
AND DRY AIRMASS. GUIDANCE STILL CALLING FOR HARD FREEZE FOR ALL BUT             
THE IMMEDIATE COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER...AIRMASS WILL              
GRADUALLY MODIFY AS SFC HIGH PARKS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND                
UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. MAY SEE A LIGHT FREEZE AGAIN FRIDAY              
MORNING BEFORE EASTERLY FLOW MOISTENS THINGS UP AND WARMS TEMPS UP.             
EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WILL MOISTEN UP THE LOW                      
LEVELS...BUT WITH BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT...DO NOT ANTICIPATE                      
SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES ATTM.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS                 
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH WIND NEAR CAUTION LEVELS COMING AROUND                
FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. FLOW BECOMES               
NORTHERLY ACROSS ALL AREAS BY LATE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT SETTLES                 
SOUTH OF THE AREA. WILL SEE FLOW WEAKEN BRIEFLY DURING MONDAY AND               
MONDAY EVENING BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE                   
NORTHWEST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE                   
RAPIDLY FROM THE NORTHWEST TO ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY MORNING AND               
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. WINDS             
MAY EVEN APPROACH GALE FORCE...AT LEAST IN GUSTS INTO EARLY                     
WEDNESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY                   
LEVELS ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH.                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
NUMEROUS SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS            
AFTERNOON...THEN TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AS THE                
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL OCCUR THROUGH               
THIS EVENING...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR TO VLIFR CIGS/VIS IN SHOWERS.                
CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. WIND              
GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.              
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING                
AND OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL END THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FOR ALL AREAS              
BY MONDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR                     
FILTERING IN. DESPITE THE DRIER AIR...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE              
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A                
MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY             
BRINGING WITH IT A MUCH COLDER AND VERY DRY AIRMASS TO THE                      
SOUTHEAST. A FIRE WX WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE EASTERN FL            
PANHANDLE AND FLORIDA BIG BEND FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR A                      
COMBINATION OF DURATIONS OF RH BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS ALONG WITH                 
ELEVATED SURFACE WINDS. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE QUITE DRY FOR SOUTHEAST             
AL/SOUTHWEST GA...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COOL ENOUGH ON TUESDAY TO              
PREVENT CRITICAL VALUES OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY FROM BEING                         
REACHED...HOWEVER IT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. FIRE WX                 
CONCERNS FOR CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY.                                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  49  69  41  60  27 /  40  05  05   0   0                           
PANAMA CITY  49  67  43  59  30 /  20  00  05   0   0                           
DOTHAN       42  66  39  54  26 /  15  00  10   0   0                           
ALBANY       44  67  40  55  26 /  25  00  10   0   0                           
VALDOSTA     51  68  41  60  27 /  40  05  05   0   0                           
CROSS CITY   55  73  46  65  28 /  45  10  05   0   0                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:              
     BAY...CALHOUN...DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...                       
     HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...                
     LEON...LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.                  
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...FOURNIER                                                             
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA                                                 
LONG TERM...CAMP                                                                
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
225 PM EST SAT DEC 29 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING MOST OF THE CONUS UNDER             
THE INFLUENCE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH WITH AN AXIS FROM THE NORTHERN              
PLAINS TO WEST TEXAS. THIS TROUGH HAS TAPPED INTO THE SOUTHERN                  
STREAM WITH PLENTY OF MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PUMPING UP ON THE                 
EASTERN SIDE FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTHEASTERN                
STATES.                                                                         
AT THE SURFACE...NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED FROM THE                
WESTERN FL PANHANDLE SOMEWHERE AROUND SE AL/SW GEORGIA AND THEN                 
CONTINUING NORTHEAST. THIS BOUNDARY HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR NUMEROUS             
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF              
OF THE FORECAST AREA. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN              
ISOLATED IN NATURE WITH FOG BEING THE BIGGER CONCERN. BREAKS OF SUN             
HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP IN THE LOW CLOUDS WITH MUCH OF THE FOG                
LIFTING THIS EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH THE SETTING OF THE                 
SUN...THE FOG IS VERY LIKELY TO RETURN.                                         
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE             
FORECAST AREA TO CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED                 
THUNDERSTORMS. FROM KAAF...TO KTLH...TO KVLD SOUTH AND EAST THE                 
SHOWERS WILL BE VERY ISOLATED IN NATURE AND SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN             
DRY INTO THE EVENING HOURS.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.                                     
MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT FROM THE              
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A  PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE INTO THE              
CENTRAL GULF COAST LATE. DEEP LAYER Q-G FORCING ON THE EASTERN SIDE             
OF THE TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT REAR              
QUADRANT OF A 150-170KT UPPER JET TO PRODUCE PLENTY OF SYNOPTIC                 
FORCING (ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AND DURING SUNDAY MORNING). ALSO               
GFS/NAM SHOWING AN INCREASINGLY STRONG 850MB JET (45-55KT) OVER THE             
WESTERN PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST AL/SOUTHWEST GA DURING THE SECOND HALF            
OF THE NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. THIS JET WILL ACT TO ENHANCE THE                   
THETA-E RIDGE. STRONG POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO THE             
NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF                         
SUNDAY...THIS COMBINED WITH THE SYNOPTIC FORCING DESCRIBED ABOVE                
SHOULD RESULT IN AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS FROM KMOB TO              
PORTIONS OF SE AL AND AREAS GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM             
KDHN TO KABY. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL WITH THIS SETUP FOR SOME              
LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH BACKBUILDING AND TRAINING CELLS.             
IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT...40+ KNOTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR            
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED CELLS. THESE                    
ORGANIZED CELLS COMBINED WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS A             
RESULT OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONGER                
STORMS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD SEVERE              
WX OUTBREAK...BUT JUST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LOCALIZED DAMAGING               
WIND GUSTS OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.                                           
EASTWARD MOTION OF THE TROUGH SHOULD HELP TO FINALLY BEGIN PUSHING              
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY EASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.                 
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST BY THE MIDDLE              
TO LATER AFTERNOON HOURS RESULTING IN A REDUCTION OF AREAL COVERAGE             
AND RAINFALL INTENSITY. HOWEVER STILL EXPECT A BAND OF                          
SHOWERS/STORMS TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE REGION DURING              
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SUNDAY. GOING WITH SOME RATHER HIGH POPS            
FOR THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF             
SUNDAY WITH WIDESPREAD 70-90%. DYNAMICS LOOK TO REMAIN OVER THESE               
AREAS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND WILL ONLY BE GOING WITH SLIGHT                  
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM KAAF TO KTLH AND KVLD SOUTH AND EAST. FOR            
THESE AREAS WHERE RAINFALL WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD...EXPECTING TO               
ONCE AGAIN SEE AREAS OF DENSE FOG DEVELOP. THIS FOG WILL LIKELY                 
LINGER THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE MORNING AND WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED            
IN THE AFTERNOON TAF PACKAGE. WILL SHIFT THE HIGHEST POPS EASTWARD              
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY DURING THE                    
AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA...CLOSEST              
TO THE DEPARTING UPPER DYNAMICS.                                                
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS LINGERING SHOWERS             
DEPART TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. BACK TO              
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY WITH FAIR WX FOR ALL.                   
BIG CHANGES THEN COMING FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WILL BE                    
WATCHING A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING                 
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY            
TUESDAY WITH A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS TO FOLLOW. THIS AIRMASS WILL HAVE            
THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE COLDEST AIR THAT MANY OF US HAVE SEEN FOR               
THE SEASON THUSFAR.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...TUE THROUGH SAT.                                                   
ZONAL FLOW AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD TRANSITIONS TO A SHARP                
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FOR MIDWEEK WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW                 
RETURNING BY LATE THURSDAY. A FEW NOTABLE CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO               
THE EXTENDED GRIDS. FIRST...WILL REMOVE THE SLIGHT POP FOR TUESDAY              
AS WE FEEL THE FRONT WILL NOT HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH TO              
PRODUCE ANY APPRECIABLE RAIN. SECOND...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF                   
1000MB-500MB THICKNESS VALUES HAVE INCREASED ACROSS OUR REGION OVER             
PREVIOUS RUNS AND MEX MIN TEMPS HAVE BACKED OFF FROM THE UPPER TEENS            
TO THE LOWER TO UPPER 20S FOR THURSDAY MORNING. WILL BUMP TEMPS UP A            
FEW DEGREES BUT NOT AS MUCH AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS (I.E. FROM 18                  
DEGREES TO 27 DEGREES AT TLH) TO AVOID THE POSSIBILITY OF                       
FLIP-FLOPPING. OTHERWISE... AFTER THE BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD                      
TEMPS...WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO             
NEAR CLIMO AS WE HEAD INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND.                                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
FLOW WILL CONTINUE FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION WITH A NEARLY                     
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LYING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST             
WATERS. FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH CAUTIONARY LEVELS TONIGHT AND MAY             
BRIEFLY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS LATE. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH              
EAST ACROSS THE WATERS ON SUNDAY PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE                  
WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVERHEAD FOR MONDAY              
AND MONDAY EVENING. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST            
LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS BEHIND THIS FRONT            
SHOULD EASILY REACH ADVISORY LEVELS AND MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE FOR             
A TIME...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS. WINDS WILL DECREASE LATER IN THE WEEK             
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH.                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MOSTLY MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT IN SHRA AND               
ISOLATED TSRA WHERE CIGS/VIS WILL TEMPORARILY DROP TO IFR. THE BEST             
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE AT KDHN...KABY...AND KPFN...BUT KTLH WILL BE            
NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY. SCATTERED SHRA AND ISOLATED             
TSRA WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AT THE SAME TERMINALS.            
WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW CIGS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN AFTER SUNSET...AND               
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY MORNING.                                           
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH             
SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY               
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ENOUGH DRY AIR MAY FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND              
THIS FRONT TO RESULT IN A FEW HOURS OF NEAR CRITICAL RH VALUES OVER             
PORTIONS OF NORTH FLORIDA. AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE IS A BIT                   
LOW...BUT THE SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN CASE A WATCH OR            
WARNING BECOMES NECESSARY.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  61  74  46  67  42 /  50  80  20  10  10                           
PANAMA CITY  63  72  48  65  46 /  70  70  10  10  10                           
DOTHAN       57  63  41  65  40 /  80  90  10  10  10                           
ALBANY       58  67  42  65  39 /  70  90  20  10  10                           
VALDOSTA     60  74  47  67  42 /  40  80  30  10  10                           
CROSS CITY   61  77  53  71  47 /  20  50  40  10  10                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION/FIRE WX...FOURNIER                                                     
PUBLIC/MARINE...MROCZKA                                                         
LONG TERM...BARRY                                                               
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
629 AM EST SAT DEC 29 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH                      
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE COAST SUNDAY                 
AS A LOW DEVELOPS ON IT. THIS WILL SPREAD RAIN OVER THE AREA                    
SUNDAY AS WELL. THE LOW AND FRONT WILL MOVE AWAY MONDAY AS HIGH                 
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL NOON TODAY/...                                                
AGREE WITH NAM/RUC MODELS CONTINUING TO PUMP MOISTURE OVER THE                  
AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF              
SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD. WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER                
60S EXPECTED.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /NOON TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                      
UPPER FLOW SOUTHWEST. SO NOT MUCH PUSH TO COLD FRONT. FRONT STILL               
WEST OF AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW                  
CONTINUING TO BRING IN MOISTURE. AIRMASS BECOMES MODERATELY                     
UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. NAM LIS -4/-5 WITH CAPES 500-600. PW                   
VALUES INCREASE FROM 1.30 INCH TO 1.60 INCH THIS AFTERNOON. SO                  
THERE MAY BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND BUT NOTHING SEVERE. SPC                 
HAS CAE CWA OUTLOOKED FOR GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS. WILL SAY CHANCE                
OF SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES                  
ALREADY WARM IN THE MID 60S. SO WILL GO WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 CAE AND              
CENTRAL MIDLANDS. COOLER TO THE NORTH THOUGH. COLD FRONT SLIDES                 
THROUGH TONIGHT. SINCE UPPER FLOW IS STILL SOUTHWEST...IT WILL BE               
A SLOW MOVER AND WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OUT NEAR THE COAST EARLY                 
SUNDAY MORNING. AGREE WITH MODELS THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP                
ON THE FRONT NEAR THE COAST. AS IT DOES...A GOOD WEDGE DEVELOPS                 
RIGHT OVER THE MIDLANDS. WITH NAM SHOWING 850/925 MB WINDS                      
SOUTHWEST AT 40 KT SUNDAY OVER WEDGE AND GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT...                
WILL GO CATEGORICAL CHANCE FOR RAIN SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN                
THE MID 50S BUT WILL HAVE FALLING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON                 
INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH               
SUNDAY NIGHT ENDING THE RAIN AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY.                
DRIER AND COOLER MONDAY. LOWS MID-UPPER 30S. HIGHS UPPER 50S TO                 
LOWER 60S.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                     
AGREE WITH GFS SHOWING BROAD UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EASTWARD AND                 
BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. UPPER FLOW FINALLY                    
STRAIGHTENS OUT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CLIPPER SYSTEM NEAR GREAT                  
LAKES MOVES EASTWARD TUESDAY BRINGING COLDER AIR TO AREA. THEN                  
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGHS              
MAINLY UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BUT                      
INCREASE A BIT INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S BY FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS              
DROP INTO THE 20S.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                    
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING WESTERN CAROLINAS THIS MORNING AND WILL             
MOVE CLOSE TO THE COAST BY THIS EVENING. EXPECT SOME IFR CIGS                   
12Z-14Z THIS MORNING BECOMING MVFR/VFR IN MOST LOCATIONS FOR MUCH OF            
THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS LATER TODAY WITH AN ISOLATED                  
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. A            
FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT BEYOND 04Z SUNDAY UNTIL END OF TAF            
PERIOD. PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z SUNDAY MAY RECUSE VSBYS TO              
AROUND 4-5 MILES IN A FEW LOCATIONS UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.            
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH PRECIPITATION SUNDAY               
AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM                 
MOVE THROUGH. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION                      
EXPECTED.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SC...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ga                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1152 AM CST SAT DEC 29 2007                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISSUED 1045 AM CST SAT DEC 29 2007                                              
MINOR UPDATES TO FORECAST TODAY WITH TWEAKING DECREASING CLOUDS                 
FROM THE SW AND COOLED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO OVER 1 TO 3 INCH SNOW              
COVER NW OF THE IL RIVER. LOW CLOUDS TO GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY                
SKIES THOUGH NE AREAS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE CLOUDS MOST OF THE                
DAY. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S EXCEPT LOWER 30S NW OF THE IL                
RIVER. GENTLE SW WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.                                             
LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER AR               
AND RIDGING UP INTO IL. ALOFT IL REMAINS IN A SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW               
IWTH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE WEST AND EAST COAST AND BROAD UPPER              
LEVEL TROF OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. TEMPS OVER CENTRAL IL WERE IN                 
THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S WITH OLNEY AND LAWRENCEVILLE UP TO 34F.             
LOW CLOUDS OF 1500 TO 2500 FT COVERED MUCH OF IL THIS MORNING                   
THOUGH CLEARING SKIES IN WEST CENTRAL IL WORKING SLOWLY NE TOWARD               
MACOMB AND JACKSONVILLE.                                                        
RUC...WRF AND SHEF MODELS DRIFT HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE OHIO                  
VALLEY THIS EVENING WITH WSW WIND BECOMING SOUTH UNDER 10 MPH.                  
RUC 900 TO 950 MB RH CONTINUES TO DO WELL WITH THE LOW CLOUD COVER              
AND USED THIS TO TIME DECREASE LOW CLOUDS FROM THE SW. BACK EDGE                
OF LOW CLOUDS NEAR MACOMB AND JACKSONVILLE TO MOVE NE TO I-74                   
AROUND 21Z/3 PM AND PASS FAR NE AREAS LATE AFTERNOON AS SUN SETS.               
CURULE SHOWS SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS COULD REDEVELOP OVER NW PARTS                 
THIS AFTERNOON. COOLED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO INTO THE LOWER 30S OVER            
1 TO 3 INCH SNOW COVER NW OF THE IL RIVE. REST OF CENTRAL AND IL                
HAS LITTLE IF ANY SNOW AND MILDER HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.                
HUETTL                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISSUED 1150 AM CST SAT DEC 29 2007                                              
MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 1500 FT WILL SCATTERED OUT AT SPI BETWEEN                  
18-19Z...DEC AND PIA BETWEEN 19-21Z AND BMI AND CMI BETWEEN                     
21Z-23Z. ONCE LOW CLOUDS LIFT NE OF CENTRAL IL DURING THE AFTERNOON...          
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL IL TAF SITES                   
THROUGH 18Z/SUN. 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER AR AND RIDGING UP INTO              
EASTERN IL WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING...AND               
TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 18Z/SUN. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL               
TROF OVER THE PLAINS WILL WEAKEN/DAMPEN OUT AS IT MOVES TOWARD IL               
SUNDAY. SW WINDS NEAR 8 KTS THIS AFTERNOON BECOME SOUTH AROUND 5                
KTS TONIGHT AND BACK AROUND 8 KTS SUN MORNING. SCATTERED MID/HIGH               
CLOUDS TO AFFECT CENTRAL IL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH BROKEN              
CEILINGS MAINLY STAYING SE OF TAF SITES OVER SE IL OVERNIGHT AND                
SUNDAY MORNING. LIGHT FOG COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT OVER 1 TO 3 INCH              
SNOW PACK NW OF THE IL RIVER WITH PIA ON EDGE OF THIS.                          
HUETTL                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
ISSUED 237 AM CST SAT DEC 29 2007                                               
MAIN CHALLENGE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE TIMING OF                     
CLEARING TREND TODAY.                                                           
07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON...WITH                  
COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD INTO THE APPALACHIANS. FURTHER                    
WEST...WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN                 
PLAINS. LOW CLOUDINESS STILL BLANKETS ILLINOIS...HOWEVER LATEST                 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS             
MISSOURI.                                                                       
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY                                               
BIG QUESTION TODAY WILL BE HOW FAST CLEARING WILL OCCUR. MODEL RH               
FIELDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE TOO HELPFUL...ALTHOUGH THE RUC 900-950MB             
LAYER RH SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE CURRENT TRENDS RELATIVELY WELL.               
WILL USE THIS PARTICULAR FIELD IN CONJUNCTION WITH SATELLITE LOOPS              
TO TIME CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA. 08Z SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BACK              
EDGE OF LOW CLOUD COVER HAS NOW ADVANCED TO NEAR KIRKSVILLE                     
MISSOURI AND IS ONLY SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD. BASED ON SATELLITE            
TIMING TOOL...CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST KILX              
CWA BETWEEN 14Z AND 15Z...WITH CLEARING TREND REACHING THE I-55                 
CORRIDOR BY AROUND MIDDAY. LOCATIONS FURTHER EAST WILL REMAIN OVERCAST          
UNTIL AFTERNOON. THERMAL ADVECTION WILL BE RELATIVELY NEUTRAL                   
TODAY...HOWEVER GIVEN THE SLOW NATURE OF THE CLEARING...HAVE OPTED              
TO UNDERCUT NUMERIC GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES. HIGH TEMPS WILL                  
TOP OUT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS                  
ACROSS THE E/NE CWA.                                                            
AFTER A COOL NIGHT TONIGHT...SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER WILL BE ON                 
TAP FOR SUNDAY AS S/SW FLOW DEVELOPS ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING                  
HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE 40S IN MOST                        
LOCATIONS. NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER WILL APPROACH THE REGION                
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP BULK OF THIS                  
SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS                
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. TRAILING COLD FRONT              
WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS DURING THE DAY                                  
MONDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP. NAM-WRF DOES NOT                
INDICATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF AT ALL...WHILE GFS IS A BIT MORE                
AGGRESSIVE. WILL FOLLOW THE GFS AT THIS POINT AND INTRODUCE 40                  
POPS ACROSS THE BOARD. WITH HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE WELL INTO                 
THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WILL GO WITH RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS               
THE SE...AND RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS CENTRAL. REGARDLESS OF PRECIP                 
TYPE...AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.                                             
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY                                              
ONCE MONDAY SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION...A SECONDARY WAVE WILL DIVE                
SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA AND CARVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE                  
EASTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHARPENING CYCLONIC FLOW COMBINED                
WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL RH...WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES                  
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. BLUSTERY N/NW WINDS WILL TRANSPORT MUCH               
COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION...WITH THERMAL PROFILES SUGGESTING                   
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS               
DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. AFTER THAT...PROGRESSIVE              
PATTERN CONTINUES...AS TROUGH FLATTENS AND FLOW BECOMES ZONAL BY THE            
END OF THE WEEK. END RESULT WILL BE A RAPID WARMING TREND FOR                   
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.                                                            
BARNES                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
551 AM CST SAT DEC 29 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISSUED 237 AM CST SAT DEC 29 2007                                               
MAIN CHALLENGE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE TIMING OF                     
CLEARING TREND TODAY.                                                           
07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON...WITH                  
COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD INTO THE APPALACHIANS. FURTHER                    
WEST...WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN                 
PLAINS. LOW CLOUDINESS STILL BLANKETS ILLINOIS...HOWEVER LATEST                 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS             
MISSOURI.                                                                       
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY                                               
BIG QUESTION TODAY WILL BE HOW FAST CLEARING WILL OCCUR. MODEL RH               
FIELDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE TOO HELPFUL...ALTHOUGH THE RUC 900-950MB             
LAYER RH SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE CURRENT TRENDS RELATIVELY WELL.               
WILL USE THIS PARTICULAR FIELD IN CONJUNCTION WITH SATELLITE LOOPS              
TO TIME CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA. 08Z SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BACK              
EDGE OF LOW CLOUD COVER HAS NOW ADVANCED TO NEAR KIRKSVILLE                     
MISSOURI AND IS ONLY SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD. BASED ON SATELLITE            
TIMING TOOL...CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST KILX              
CWA BETWEEN 14Z AND 15Z...WITH CLEARING TREND REACHING THE I-55                 
CORRIDOR BY AROUND MIDDAY. LOCATIONS FURTHER EAST WILL REMAIN OVERCAST          
UNTIL AFTERNOON. THERMAL ADVECTION WILL BE RELATIVELY NEUTRAL                   
TODAY...HOWEVER GIVEN THE SLOW NATURE OF THE CLEARING...HAVE OPTED              
TO UNDERCUT NUMERIC GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES. HIGH TEMPS WILL                  
TOP OUT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS                  
ACROSS THE E/NE CWA.                                                            
AFTER A COOL NIGHT TONIGHT...SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER WILL BE ON                 
TAP FOR SUNDAY AS S/SW FLOW DEVELOPS ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING                  
HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE 40S IN MOST                        
LOCATIONS. NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER WILL APPROACH THE REGION                
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP BULK OF THIS                  
SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS                
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. TRAILING COLD FRONT              
WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS DURING THE DAY                                  
MONDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP. NAM-WRF DOES NOT                
INDICATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF AT ALL...WHILE GFS IS A BIT MORE                
AGGRESSIVE. WILL FOLLOW THE GFS AT THIS POINT AND INTRODUCE 40                  
POPS ACROSS THE BOARD. WITH HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE WELL INTO                 
THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WILL GO WITH RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS               
THE SE...AND RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS CENTRAL. REGARDLESS OF PRECIP                 
TYPE...AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.                                             
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY                                              
ONCE MONDAY SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION...A SECONDARY WAVE WILL DIVE                
SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA AND CARVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE                  
EASTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHARPENING CYCLONIC FLOW COMBINED                
WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL RH...WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES                  
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. BLUSTERY N/NW WINDS WILL TRANSPORT MUCH               
COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION...WITH THERMAL PROFILES SUGGESTING                   
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS               
DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. AFTER THAT...PROGRESSIVE              
PATTERN CONTINUES...AS TROUGH FLATTENS AND FLOW BECOMES ZONAL BY THE            
END OF THE WEEK. END RESULT WILL BE A RAPID WARMING TREND FOR                   
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.                                                            
BARNES                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISSUED 551 AM CST SAT DEC 29 2007                                               
GENERALLY QUIET AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 12Z TAF                
PERIOD...AT LEAST ONCE THE MVFR CEILINGS DEPART. HIGH PRESSURE                  
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY FROM THE WEST...WITH WINDS AOB               
10 KTS GRADUALLY SHIFTING FROM WEST TO SOUTH. MVFR CEILINGS WILL                
CLEAR OUT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS               
TERMINALS FROM AROUND MIDDAY INTO MID AFTERNOON. ONCE THE LOWER                 
CEILINGS MOVE EAST OF THE REGION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.                 
BAK                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
1035 AM MST SUN DEC 30 2007                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. A               
WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE AREA LATE            
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...BUT CIGS SHOULD ONLY LOWER TO             
AROUND 6 KFT. AS TROUGH PASSES...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS            
THE AREA BRINGING STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AS FRONT PASSES WITH               
GUSTS AROUND 30KTS BEFORE WINDS RELAX SOME OVERNIGHT. WINDS SHOULD              
ONCE AGAIN PICK UP QUICKLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AFTER SUNRISE.                  
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT               
SEVERAL DAYS AND WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND THE IMPACT                    
EXISTING SNOW PACK WILL HAVE ON BOTH OF THEM.                                   
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY NIGHT)...                                            
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND 850 TEMPERATURES WARMING SOME 4-9F                  
(COOLEST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND WEST WHERE DEEPEST SNOW PACK                  
EXISTS) WILL ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE MELTING ACROSS THE AREA AS                    
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW 30S WEST AND NORTH WITH NEAR 40 AND              
SOME LOWER 40S ACROSS THE AREAS WHERE LITTLE OR NO SNOW PACK                    
EXISTS. THIS WARMING TREND WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A 140+ KT 250                 
JET AND PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT              
HOURS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE COLDEST ACROSS THE WEST...LESS COLD                    
ACROSS THE EAST. NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15-25/20-30 MPH RANGE WILL              
ALSO BE COMMON. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES...GFS STILL LOOKS               
OVERDONE WITH OVERALL MOISTURE PROFILES. NAM/NGM/RUC QUITE A BIT                
DRIER. IF THE GFS WERE TO VERIFY SOME LOW POPS MAY BE NEEDED FOR                
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SILENT POPS FOR VIRGA AS THEY (NGM/NAM/GFS)               
SHOW SOME GOOD 700 FRONTOGENESIS WITHIN THE HIGHER 850-500                      
MOISTURE THAT THE GFS GENERATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE                 
AREA. WILL BRIEF DAY SHIFT TO THIS BUT I DONT SEE ANYTHING                      
HAPPENING RIGHT NOW.                                                            
FOR MONDAY 850 TEMPERATURES DROP ABOUT 15F ACROSS THE AREA WHICH                
ALONE WITH ONLY SUPPORT 20-25 ACROSS THE DEEPER SNOW PACK AREAS OF              
FAR EASTERN COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH 30 OR SO                       
ELSEWHERE. 21Z SREF TEMPS ALSO SIMILAR BUT THE MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS               
OUT TO LUNCH WHICH GIVEN THE SNOW PACK MAKES SENSE. ADD TO THAT                 
THE FACT THAT THE WIND WILL BE BLOWING FROM THE DEEPER SNOW PACK                
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...POSSIBLY FURTHER IMPACTING              
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. SPEAKING OF WINDS...ANOTHER TOUGH                     
FORECAST. LOCAL WIND GUST PROGRAM BASED ON THE NAM WOULD SUGGEST                
POSSIBLE WARNING CRITERIA GUSTS AS 50+ KT 800MB WINDS COVER THE                 
AREA. SNOW PACK AREAS MAY CREATE A SHALLOW INVERSION WHICH WOULD                
PREVENT FULL GUST POTENTIAL TO REACH THE SURFACE. FOR NOW HAVE                  
FOLLOWED THE SREF FOR WIND DIRECTION AND THE RUC/RUC13/MOS                      
GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT                    
WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BOTH ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS FAR               
EASTERN COLORADO WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE TO AROUND 10-15 ABOVE                 
ZERO ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS OF               
15 TO 20 MPH WILL ALSO BE COMMON AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND              
ATMOSPHERE MIXED.                                                               
FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES TOWARD THE                
FRONT RANGE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. 850 TEMPERATURES HOWEVER                  
SHOW LITTLE CHANGE FROM MONDAYS READINGS. THIS WOULD AGAIN SUPPORT              
20S IN THE WEST AND NORTH WITH NEAR 30/LOW 30S ELSEWHERE. SHOULD                
SEE LOTS OF SUN WITH ONLY SOME CIRRUS POSSIBLE...NOT ENOUGH TO                  
IMPACT THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. MIN TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE                 
SINGLE DIGITS WITH POSSIBLE BELOW ZERO READINGS ACROSS YUMA COUNTY              
COLORADO AND KIT CARSON COLORADO (SOUTHWEST PORTION OF CHEYENNE                 
COUNTY).                                                                        
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY)...                                              
WEDNESDAY...LIKE THE GFS IDEA AT 850 MB AS IT SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD              
IDEA WHERE SNOW PACK IS AND APPROPRIATELY HAS THE COOLER 850                    
TEMPERATURES IN THAT AREA. WITH THE GFS WARMING 850 TEMPS ABOUT                 
10F ACROSS THE AREA ADDED THAT ON TO TUESDAYS FORECAST HIGH GRID.               
WILL GO FOR 35-40 ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WITH 40-45 ELSEWHERE.               
THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM WITH THE QUESTION                 
BEING JUST HOW MUCH. GFS SHOWS ABOUT 10F ON AVERAGE WHILE THE                   
ACTUAL 850 TEMPS FROM THE ECMWF ARE SOME 2-6C WARMER ON AVERAGE.                
IMPACTS OF ANY EXISTING SNOW PACK SHOULD BE MINIMAL AT THIS POINT               
BUT WONT TOTALLY EXCLUDE IT AT THIS POINT. HAVE GONE WITH READINGS              
GENERALLY IN THE 45-53 RANGE...COOLEST ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.               
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NO CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.                             
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JRM/DDT                                                                         
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
200 AM MST SUN DEC 30 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT               
SEVERAL DAYS AND WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND THE IMPACT                    
EXISTING SNOW PACK WILL HAVE ON BOTH OF THEM.                                   
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY NIGHT)...                                            
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND 850 TEMPERATURES WARMING SOME 4-9F                  
(COOLEST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND WEST WHERE DEEPEST SNOW PACK                  
EXISTS) WILL ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE MELTING ACROSS THE AREA AS                    
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW 30S WEST AND NORTH WITH NEAR 40 AND              
SOME LOWER 40S ACROSS THE AREAS WHERE LITTLE OR NO SNOW PACK                    
EXISTS. THIS WARMING TREND WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A 140+ KT 250                 
JET AND PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT              
HOURS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE COLDEST ACROSS THE WEST...LESS COLD                    
ACROSS THE EAST. NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15-25/20-30 MPH RANGE WILL              
ALSO BE COMMON. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES...GFS STILL LOOKS               
OVERDONE WITH OVERALL MOISTURE PROFILES. NAM/NGM/RUC QUITE A BIT                
DRIER. IF THE GFS WERE TO VERIFY SOME LOW POPS MAY BE NEEDED FOR                
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SILENT POPS FOR VIRGA AS THEY (NGM/NAM/GFS)               
SHOW SOME GOOD 700 FRONTOGENESIS WITHIN THE HIGHER 850-500                      
MOISTURE THAT THE GFS GENERATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE                 
AREA. WILL BRIEF DAY SHIFT TO THIS BUT I DONT SEE ANYTHING                      
HAPPENING RIGHT NOW.                                                            
FOR MONDAY 850 TEMPERATURES DROP ABOUT 15F ACROSS THE AREA WHICH                
ALONE WITH ONLY SUPPORT 20-25 ACROSS THE DEEPER SNOW PACK AREAS OF              
FAR EASTERN COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH 30 OR SO                       
ELSEWHERE. 21Z SREF TEMPS ALSO SIMILAR BUT THE MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS               
OUT TO LUNCH WHICH GIVEN THE SNOW PACK MAKES SENSE. ADD TO THAT                 
THE FACT THAT THE WIND WILL BE BLOWING FROM THE DEEPER SNOW PACK                
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...POSSIBLY FURTHER IMPACTING              
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. SPEAKING OF WINDS...ANOTHER TOUGH                     
FORECAST. LOCAL WIND GUST PROGRAM BASED ON THE NAM WOULD SUGGEST                
POSSIBLE WARNING CRITERIA GUSTS AS 50+ KT 800MB WINDS COVER THE                 
AREA. SNOW PACK AREAS MAY CREATE A SHALLOW INVERSION WHICH WOULD                
PREVENT FULL GUST POTENTIAL TO REACH THE SURFACE. FOR NOW HAVE                  
FOLLOWED THE SREF FOR WIND DIRECTION AND THE RUC/RUC13/MOS                      
GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT                    
WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BOTH ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS FAR               
EASTERN COLORADO WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE TO AROUND 10-15 ABOVE                 
ZERO ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS OF               
15 TO 20 MPH WILL ALSO BE COMMON AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND              
ATMOSPHERE MIXED.                                                               
FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES TOWARD THE                
FRONT RANGE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. 850 TEMPERATURES HOWEVER                  
SHOW LITTLE CHANGE FROM MONDAYS READINGS. THIS WOULD AGAIN SUPPORT              
20S IN THE WEST AND NORTH WITH NEAR 30/LOW 30S ELSEWHERE. SHOULD                
SEE LOTS OF SUN WITH ONLY SOME CIRRUS POSSIBLE...NOT ENOUGH TO                  
IMPACT THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. MIN TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE                 
SINGLE DIGITS WITH POSSIBLE BELOW ZERO READINGS ACROSS YUMA COUNTY              
COLORADO AND KIT CARSON COLORADO (SOUTHWEST PORTION OF CHEYENNE                 
COUNTY).                                                                        
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY)...                                              
WEDNESDAY...LIKE THE GFS IDEA AT 850 MB AS IT SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD              
IDEA WHERE SNOW PACK IS AND APPROPRIATELY HAS THE COOLER 850                    
TEMPERATURES IN THAT AREA. WITH THE GFS WARMING 850 TEMPS ABOUT                 
10F ACROSS THE AREA ADDED THAT ON TO TUESDAYS FORECAST HIGH GRID.               
WILL GO FOR 35-40 ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WITH 40-45 ELSEWHERE.               
THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM WITH THE QUESTION                 
BEING JUST HOW MUCH. GFS SHOWS ABOUT 10F ON AVERAGE WHILE THE                   
ACTUAL 850 TEMPS FROM THE ECMWF ARE SOME 2-6C WARMER ON AVERAGE.                
IMPACTS OF ANY EXISTING SNOW PACK SHOULD BE MINIMAL AT THIS POINT               
BUT WONT TOTALLY EXCLUDE IT AT THIS POINT. HAVE GONE WITH READINGS              
GENERALLY IN THE 45-53 RANGE...COOLEST ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.               
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NO CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...CIGS AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK IN THE 10-15K FT                
RANGE MAINLY EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN DURING THE                            
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE                         
WEST/NORTHWEST AT 15 KTS THIS MORNING...SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST               
BY 21Z. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BETWEEN 03Z-06Z                    
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASING SPEEDS INTO THE              
20KT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL                  
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS                    
EXPECTED AT BOTH SITES.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DDT/DDT/DDT                                                                     
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
200 AM MST SAT DEC 29 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE                 
SHORT AND LONG TERM PERIOD WITH WINDS BECOMING A CONCERN SUNDAY                 
NIGHT AND MONDAY.                                                               
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY NIGHT)...                                             
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING ALONG THE CONTINENTAL              
DIVIDE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TODAY WITH FAST NORTHWEST FLOW TO                  
FOLLOW THROUGH SUNDAY.                                                          
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT SOME INCREASING UPPER LEVEL                  
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT                    
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST 1/3-2/3 OF THE AREA BY MONDAY                             
MORNING...CLEARING THE AREA SHORTLY THEREAFTER. WITH AN INCREASING              
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE                 
WINDY CATEGORY AS WELL SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT                    
DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT.                                                          
GFS IS THE BOLDEST WITH REGARD TO MOISTURE WITH THE FRONTAL                     
PASSAGE PRODUCING SOME LIGHT QPF. THE NAM/SREF/CANADIAN AND RUC13               
ARE ALL DRY. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS POINT.                          
FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY I USED FRIDAYS OBSERVED TEMPERATURES FROM                
ASOS AND MESONET SITES THEN ADDED APPROXIMATELY 5F TO ACCOUNT FOR               
850 WARMING AND LATEST 2M/MOS GUIDANCE AVERAGES.                                
SIMILARLY...SUNDAYS HIGHS SIMPLY ADDED ANOTHER 10F OR SO TO                     
SATURDAYS AS 850/2M/MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS CONTINUE TO WARM. SHARPLY              
COLDER ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY WEST WHERE 850/2M/MOS NUMBERS FAVOR               
HIGHS ONLY 20S WHERE LOW/MID 30S EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND              
EAST. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE IN THE TEMP FORECAST AS RECENT AND                 
PREVIOUS STORMS SNOW PACK MAKES IT ALL THAT MORE DIFFICULT TO                   
PINPOINT BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS. WITH AIRMASS MODIFYING/WARMING AND A              
SUSTAINED WEST/SOUTHWEST WIND MINS TONIGHT MIGHT BE ON THE LOW                  
SIDE OF THINGS.                                                                 
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY-FRIDAY)...                                                  
TUESDAY...THE ABOVE MENTIONED PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND COLD              
POCKET WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY 00Z              
WEDNESDAY PREVENTING ANY TYPE OF SUBSTANTIAL WARM UP DESPITE                    
BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS FROM THE WEST. SHOULD HAVE SOME SNOW COVER               
AROUND...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND EASTERN              
COLORADO WHERE THE LAST 2 STORMS DUMPED THE MOST.                               
WEDNESDAY...BY 00Z THURSDAY THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE                      
CENTERED ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN             
850 TEMPERATURES AND THUS SURFACE TEMPERATURES. STILL THINKING                  
SNOW COVER WILL EXIST ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND PARTS OF FAR                     
EASTERN COLORADO WHERE TEMPS HAVE BEEN TWEAKED CLOSER TO 40                     
DEGREES. ELSEWHERE...SNOW SHOULD JUST ABOUT BE GONE BY THIS TIME                
SO HAVE TRIED TO INCORPORATE STANDARD 850 TEMP BIAS` FOR THE ASOS               
SITES WHICH WOULD SUPPORT READINGS GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S.                    
THURSDAY...850 TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM ABOUT 9F ACROSS THE                
AREA AS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY IS UNDER A BROAD UPPER LEVEL                  
RIDGE WITH LOW PRESSURE AREAS OVER OR EAST OF THE EAST COAST AND                
ALONG OR WEST OF THE WEST COAST. FOR NOW SIMPLY ADDED 9 DEGREES TO              
WEDNESDAYS FORECAST HIGH GRID WHICH YIELDS THURSDAYS READINGS                   
AROUND 50 NORTH AND WEST...LOW TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE. ECMWF WAS A                
BIT WARMER SO FURTHER TWEAKING WILL BE NEEDED...ESPECIALLY IF THE               
SNOW IS GONE BY THIS TIME.                                                      
FRIDAY...UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE WEST COAST                   
UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND IN RETURN                   
PUSHES THE RIDGE AXIS EAST OF THE AREA. 850 TEMPERATURES CONTINUE               
TO WARM JUST A BIT MORE. NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE BUT THE MOST                   
OBVIOUS NEED MAY/WILL BE TO BUMP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES UP JUST A               
FEW MORE DEGREES.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 12Z TAFS ONLY EXPECTING A FEW PERIODS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS               
GENERALLY IN THE 20K FT RANGE. WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE                         
WEST/SOUTHWEST AT 10 KTS OR SO. VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.                         
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DDT/DDT/DDT                                                                     
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
817 PM EST SUN DEC 30 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MINOR BUT STILL WORTHY ADJUSTMENTS TO SNOW EXPECTATIONS FOR THE                 
REST OF TONIGHT ARE COMING UP AS OUR HIGH POP LOW QPF SCENARIO                  
CONTINUES TO UNFOLD.                                                            
THE LEAD UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION PATTERN BRUSHING OUR FAR EASTERN               
COUNTIES HAS A COUPLE MORE HOURS LEFT IN IT BEFORE FORCING                      
TRANSITIONS TO THE WAVE SHEARING EASTWARD FROM THE CHICAGO AREA.                
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRUSH THE DETROIT AREA BUT MAINLY AFFECT THE                   
INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDOR INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALL OF THIS                    
DYNAMIC FORCING IS ACTING IN A SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT OF LOW MOISTURE              
BUT ALSO LOW STATIC STABILITY OR EVEN SHALLOW LAYERS OF                         
INSTABILITY IN THE MID LEVELS AS SHOWN IN MODEL CROSS SECTIONS.                 
THE RESULTING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BATTLE DRY AIR IN THE LOW               
LEVELS, ESPECIALLY IN THE TRI CITIES, FOR THE DURATION OF THE                   
EVENT.                                                                          
EXPECT THINGS TO TAPER OFF AROUND 3 AM AS THE UPPER WAVE SHEARS                 
TO OUR EAST. UNTIL THEN, WE WILL HANG ON TO CATEGORICAL POPS A                  
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH INTO FLINT AND A LONGER INTO THE NIGHT, BUT                
WITH SOME DURATION QUALIFIERS TO GO ALONG WITH ACCUMULATION LESS                
THAN AN INCH.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 645 PM EST SUN DEC 30 2007                            
AVIATION...                                                                     
AREAL COVERAGE AND DURATION OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN              
EARLY THIS AVIATION FORECAST CYCLE. AT THIS POINT, IT LOOKS LIKE THE            
DETROIT AREA WILL BE IMPACTED MAINLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH              
MVFR VISIBILITY AND CEILING IN LIGHT SNOW. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ON            
THE BRIEF SIDE AT ALL TERMINALS BUT FLINT AND TRI CITIES HAVE A                 
CHANCE AT A LONGER DURATION MVFR SITUATION AS A SYSTEM OVER CHICAGO             
MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY IN             
THE OVERNIGHT.                                                                  
THE SNOW WILL END LATE TONIGHT AND BE REPLACED BY STRATUS AND LIGHT             
FOG AS MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MOVES IN FROM ILLINOIS AND INDIANA.             
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE GIVING WAY            
TO SLIGHT VISIBILITY IMPROVEMENT. SNOW FROM THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE               
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY EVENING.                            
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 332 PM EST SUN DEC 30 2007                             
SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT                                                    
HIGH POP/LOW QPF SNOW MINI-EVENT EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF              
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...ROUGHLY SOUTH OF I-69. NORTH OF                     
THERE...JUST SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHEST SNOW                              
ACCUMULATIONS...ONLY ABOUT AN INCH...ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE             
FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE...FROM ST CLAIR COUNTY                    
SOUTHWARD DOWN TO MONROE COUNTY.                                                
UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE CORN BELT THIS AFTERNOON WILL              
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NIGHT. WHILE              
MAIN SURFACE REFLECTION WILL STAY OVER THE CAROLINAS...PAST SEVERAL             
MODEL SUITES HAVE SHOWN A SECONDARY REFLECTION DEVELOPING OVER WEST             
VIRGINIA AND TRACKING UP THROUGH WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE                
LATE EVENING. MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DO                 
INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF THIS FEATURE...AND 12Z MODELS WERE                     
DEFINITELY TOO WEAK WITH IT. ALREADY SOME EVIDENCE OF A DEFORMATION             
BAND FORMING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM PER OBS AND SATELLITE             
IMAGERY...AND MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING THIS                   
DEFORMATION ZONE INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AFTER 00Z TONIGHT. SYSTEM              
WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TO WORK WITH AS JET DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN JUST TO             
OUR SOUTHEAST...AND NO DECENT INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL                 
OCCUR. WILL SEE SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT HOWEVER...AND FORCING DOES LOOK            
TO BE CENTERED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ALLOWING FOR MAXIMUM                
CRYSTAL GROWTH. OVERALL...LIKE THE RUC AND NGM QPF FIELDS THE BEST.             
DID HOWEVER LEAN TOWARDS THE HIGHER END OF THE MODEL QPF                        
FIELDS...GIVEN THAT THE MODELS ARE UNDERDONE WITH THE SYSTEM                    
INTENSITY. WITH THE LOW CENTER ALREADY SO FAR TO OUR EAST SNOWFALL              
WILL BE LIGHT AND FAIRLY SHORT IN DURATION...MOSTLY OCCURRING WITHIN            
A 4 TO 6 HOUR WINDOW THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OUT OF               
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN BY 4 AM.                                                     
IN THE WAKE OF THIS LITTLE SYSTEM...LOW CLOUDS AND MIST WILL LINGER             
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO BECOME ESTABLISHED LATE             
TONIGHT AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST                  
BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED AND STARTS TO ADVANCE INTO THE WESTERN                 
GREAT LAKES.                                                                    
LONG TERM...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS DEPICTING WEAK SHORTWAVE                   
ENERGY EJECTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS                     
AFTERNOON. THIS ENERGY WILL ORGANIZE INTO A STRONGER SHORTWAVE                  
ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY INDUCE WEAK SFC                      
CYCLOGENESIS AS IT PULLS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. MODEL                
TRENDS SINCE THE 00Z CYCLE HAVE BEEN TOWARD A WEAKER AND MORE                   
SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE MAIN SFC LOW...WITH A SECOND WEAKER SFC                  
REFLECTION INDICATED WITHIN THE UNPHASED FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN                   
CANADA. THE 12Z GFS...WITH SUPPORT FROM THE 12Z WRF-HEMI AND                    
CANADIAN...TAKES THE LOW FROM CENTRAL IL ACROSS NORTHERN IN AND                 
INTO LAKE ERIE. THE NAM REMAINS THE FURTHEST SOUTH...KEEPING A                  
STRONGER/MORE COMPACT LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN IN/NORTHEAST OHIO. THE                
12Z ECMWF APPEARS TO BE A GOOD COMPROMISE...MAINTAINING A                       
SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK THAN THE GFS...WHILE ALLOWING FOR                 
BETTER NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF THE MOISTURE/PCPN SHIELD INTO                     
SOUTHEAST LOWER MI COMPARED TO THE VERY DRY LOOKING NAM.                        
FORCING WILL BE LACKING INITIALLY...AND WILL PULL BACK ON POPS FOR              
THE MORNING HOURS.  HOWEVER...BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING THE                     
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ACCENT PROVIDED BY THE UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK             
LOW/MID LEVEL DEFORMATION WILL HELP OVERCOME A LIMITED MOISTURE                 
SOURCE TO BRING SNOW TO ALL OF SOUTHEAST LOWER MI.  MODELS INDICATE             
THE MAIN AXIS OF LARGE SCALE FORCING/OMEGA WILL EXIST JUST SOUTH OF             
THE STATE LINE...LEAVING THE HIGHEST QPF BANDS JUST OUT OF OUR                  
AREA.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED LOW TRACK AND OVERALL                    
VERTICAL MOTION/MOISTURE FIELDS...A BROAD 1-2 INCH SWATH OF SNOWFALL            
STILL SEEMS PLAUSIBLE BY 06Z MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE               
SOUTHERN HALF.  THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS                     
APPROACHING 3 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO TIER OF COUNTIES...AND             
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IN THE                 
TRACK AND BETTER FORCING. WHERE GOOD SYNOPTIC FORCING LACKS ACROSS              
THE THUMB REGION...SOME ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL MAY COME FROM LAKE                  
EFFECT ENHANCEMENT. THE ONLY AREA THAT MAY STRUGGLE TO SEE MUCH                 
SYNOPTIC ACCUMULATION WILL BE IN THE SAGINAW VALLEY...AND WILL                  
SCALE BACK QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY HERE.                                      
12Z MODEL SUITE REMAIN IN STRONG AGREEMENT AND CARRY GOOD RUN TO RUN            
CONTINUITY WITH THE PATTERN EVOLUTION BY MIDWEEK.  THE WEAKER SYSTEM            
LIFTING THROUGH MONDAY WILL LEAD IN A STRONGER SHORTWAVE FOR                    
TUESDAY...WITH THIS ENERGY CARVING OUT A DEEPER LONGWAVE TROUGH AND             
ALLOWING A BRIEF SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR TO SPILL IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/              
WEDNESDAY. STRENGTHENING COLD AIR ADVECTION ON TUESDAY WITH 850 MB              
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW -10C WILL CREATE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE               
CONDITIONS FOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. THE                   
LATEST GFS INDICATING A NARROW CONVERGENCE ZONE DEVELOPING ACROSS               
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE THUMB...WITH A SMALL WINDOW OF                       
PREDOMINANT NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW OVER LAKE HURON INCREASING THE                 
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS IN THESE LOCATIONS LATE TUESDAY.              
MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP BY TUESDAY EVENING AREAWIDE                
AS FORCING/CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY              
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN MI...AND LIKELY POPS REMAIN                      
APPROPRIATE FOR THIS PERIOD. OVERALL...ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS UP              
TO 2 INCHES (HIGHEST NORTH) STILL SEEMS REASONABLE AREAWIDE...WITH              
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED LAKE                  
ENHANCED AREAS ACROSS THE THUMB.                                                
ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD BRIEFLY FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH                
LINGERING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.  BASED ON PROJECTED 850 MB/                   
THICKNESS TRENDS...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY               
FALL...AND NOT REACH MUCH ABOVE THE LOWER 20S.  AT LEAST PARTIAL                
CLEARING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COMBINED WITH A WEAKENING GRADIENT WITH              
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WILL BRING THE                  
COLDEST NIGHT OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  GOING FORECAST WITH LOWS                 
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 5-10F RANGE STILL LOOKING GOOD FOR THURSDAY                
MORNING.                                                                        
BIG PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS              
MODEL CONSENSUS PLACES THE GREAT LAKES WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY DEEP              
SOUTHWEST FLOW...BETWEEN STRENGTHENING RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST COAST            
AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.  THIS                
WILL LEAD TO A PRONOUNCED WARMUP BY THE WEEKEND...WITH 850 MB TEMPS             
CLIMBING INTO THE 5-10C RANGE BY SUNDAY.  IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO             
SCOUR OUT THE ARCTIC AIR INITIALLY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO TEMPER THE            
WARMUP ON THURSDAY...AS THE COLD MORNING START AND SNOW COVER                   
POTENTIAL WILL CERTAINLY COUNTER ANY INCREASE IN WARM AIR ADVECTION/            
RISING THICKNESSES.   HOWEVER...BY THE WEEKEND EXPECT TEMPERATURES              
TO CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY POTENTIALLY                   
APPROACHING 50F ACROSS THE SOUTH. INCREASING ISENTROPIC ACCENT AND              
THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN              
BY SATURDAY...WITH THE THERMAL PROFILES LOOKING MORE LIKE ALL                   
RAIN.                                                                           
MARINE...                                                                       
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BECOME ORGANIZED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST            
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN                
GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TUESDAY            
AS IT TRACKS INTO NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE...A VERY LARGE AND STRONG              
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ITS WAKE TUESDAY OVER THE                   
CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH OUR AREA IN THE CENTER OF THESE TWO                        
STRENGTHENING SYSTEMS...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR            
OVER ALL MARINE AREAS TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.                
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW GALE STRENGTH...BUT SMALL CRAFT              
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.                                               
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE.......BT                                                                 
AVIATION.....BT                                                                 
SHORT TERM...HLO                                                                
LONG TERM....MR                                                                 
MARINE.......HLO                                                                
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
648 PM EST SUN DEC 30 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND MONDAY)                                              
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE LIGHT SNOW CHANCES MONDAY.                               
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD TROF OVER THE CONUS               
WITH THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE AND JET ENERGY WELL TO THE SOUTH.                 
SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WERE EMBEDDED IN THE WEAKER FLOW FROM THE               
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. ONE WAS MOVING THROUGH NW MN                 
WHILE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS IN LINE OVER SE SASKATCHEWAN                   
AHEAD OF A STRONGER SHORTWAVE OVER NRN SASK. AT THE SFC...WEAK SRLY             
FLOW PREVAILED OVER UPPER MI AS A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDED INTO NRN LAKE            
SUPERIOR FROM LOW PRES OVER NW MN AND THE ERN DAKOTAS. VIS LOOP                 
SHOWED THAT CLEAR PATCHES THAT HAD DEVELOPED WERE GIVING WAY TO                 
INCREASING CLOUDS WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM              
WI. SSW FLOW OFF OF LAKE MI HAS BROUGHT SCT -SHSN TO THE ERN CWA                
FROM E OF KISQ TO KERY.                                                         
TONIGHT...EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN PATCHY FLURRIES THIS EVENING WITH             
ONLY WEAK WAA AND LOW LEVEL (925-850 MB LAYER) ISENTROPIC LIFT                  
CONTINUING. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INCLUDED OVERNIGHT AS                       
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE AND 850-700 MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF            
THE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS. LIGHT LES INTO THE                   
ERN CWA SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS                
BECOME LIGHT AND DISORGANIZED. THE NAM AND LCL HIGH RES WRF/ARW ALSO            
SUGGEST THAT THE MORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONV WILL SHIFT EAST OF               
THE CWA OVERNIGHT.                                                              
MONDAY...MODELS DEPICTION OF A 850-700 MB SHORTWAVE...STRONGEST WITH            
THE GFS...WOULD BRING ADDITIONAL BAND OF 280-285K ISENTROPIC LIFT               
AND POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW CHANCES WILL                 
INCREASE LATE ACROSS THE WEST AS WINDS VEER WNW. 850 MB TEMPS DOWN              
TO NEAR -13C WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SUPPORT SOME             
LIGHT LES OR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW LATE. WITH LATE ONSET ACCUMULATIONS             
BY EVENING SHOULD STILL REMAIN AN INCH OR LESS.                                 
.LONG TERM (MON NIGHT THRU SUN)...                                              
MAIN FCST CONCERN IS THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT MON NIGHT THRU TUE              
NIGHT. THE LAST FEW MODELS RUNS HAVE SHOWN A SHARP SFC TROF DROPPING            
S ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A                   
SHORTWAVE DIVING FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. WHILE BEST             
FORCING WITH SHORWAVE WILL PASS W AND S OF THE FCST AREA...                     
CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A PERIOD OF MDT TO POSSIBLY              
HVY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW LATE MON NIGHT/TUE AS MIDLEVEL TROF AXIS                 
PASSES. DEVELOPING SFC TROF OVER LAKE SUPERIOR MON NIGHT WILL LEAD              
TO INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE LAKE WITH W TO NW WINDS AHEAD            
OF TROF FAVORING THE WRN COUNTIES FOR DEVELOPING LAKE ENHANCED SNOW.            
FOR THE MOST PART...WRLY WINDS OVER NCNTRL UPPER MI WILL KEEP MAIN              
SNOW AREA OFFSHORE UNTIL TROF PASSAGE TUE MORNING. ONCE WINDS SHIFT             
NRLY BEHIND TROF EARLY TUE MORNING...EXPECT HEAVIEST SNOW TO SETTLE             
OVER WRN GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON COUNTIES AND MARQUETTE/WRN ALGER                     
COUNTIES. DEEP MOISTURE...CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW AND MODEL TIME                  
SECTIONS SHOWING A NICE INTERSECTION OF UPWARD MOTION WITHIN FALLING            
LAYER OF FAVORABLE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH TEMPS UNDER CAA REGIME                 
SUGGEST THIS EVENT MAY REACH WARNING CRITERIA (8 INCHES IN 12HRS OR             
10 IN 24HRS) IN SOME LOCATIONS. CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT IS JUST                
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE WATCHES. HAVE STARTED LAKE EFFECT SNOW               
WATCH AT 00Z TUE OVER THE WRN COUNTIES SINCE FLOW IS W TO NW AHEAD              
OF SFC TROF. HOWEVER...SNOW SHOULDN`T REALLY PICK UP UNTIL AFTER                
MIDNIGHT. STARTED WATCH AT 12Z TUE FOR MARQUETTE/ALGER COUNTIES WITH            
EXPECTATION OF WIND SHIFT TO THE N ARRIVING NEAR THAT TIME. LEFT                
LUCE COUNTY OUT OF WATCH SINCE WINDS SHIFT N TO NE MINIMIZING                   
OVERWATER TRAJECTORY THERE. ALSO...OPTED TO LEAVE BARAGA COUNTY OUT             
OF WATCH DUE TO SHORTER PERIOD OF FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION THERE. AT            
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON COUNTIES WILL SEE THE                  
GREATEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS (AND MOST LIKELY TO REACH WARNING                   
AMOUNTS) FROM THIS EVENT DUE TO LONGEST PERIOD OF FAVORABLE WIND                
DIRECTION AND DUE TO AIRMASS PASSING OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BEING               
COLDER. TIME PERIOD OF HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD BE AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO              
EARLY TUE MORNING FOR THE KEWEENAW...AFTER MIDNIGHT MON THRU TUE                
AFTN FOR GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON AND DURING THE DAY TUE FOR                           
MARQUETTE/ALGER. ALTHOUGH WATCHES WILL RUN TO 12Z WED...SNOW WILL BE            
QUITE A BIT LIGHTER DURING THE PURE LES PHASE TUE NIGHT.                        
HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WRN LAKES WED AND PASS THRU THE             
AREA WED NIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO LES FROM W TO E AS WINDS BACK               
FROM NW TO SW. TEMPS WILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO PLUMMET DURING                 
THE SHORT PERIOD OF RIDGE PASSAGE WED NIGHT. READINGS COULD BE                  
SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN WHAT THIS FCST ISSUANCE REFLECTS. FOR                
NOW...HAVE MIN TEMPS AT OR JUST BLO ZERO OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR.             
THU THRU SUN...UNFORTUNATELY FOR THOSE WHO ENJOY WINTER SNOW                    
ACTIVITIES...THE LONG ADVERTISED GFS/ECWMF CHANGE IN THE PATTERN TO             
A MAJOR WARMUP TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE UNDERWAY DURING               
THIS PERIOD AS MEAN TROF POSITION SETTLES INTO THE FAR ERN                      
PACIFIC/WRN NAMERICA AND RIDGE BUILDS OVER ERN NAMERICA. BEYOND THIS            
FCST PERIOD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...UNUSUAL WARMTH IS LIKELY TO                  
PERSIST. LOOKS LIKE SOME RECORD HIGH MAX TEMPS AND RECORD HIGH MIN              
TEMPS WILL BE SET DURING THIS WARM PERIOD. MIN TEMP RECORDS WILL BE             
MORE LIKELY TO BE SET AS MINS WILL BE ESPECIALLY AFFECTED BY THE                
WARMING...SHOWING INCREASINGLY GREATER DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL THAN              
MAX TEMPS AS THE WARMING TREND LENGTHENS AND CLOUDS/INCREASINGLY                
MOIST AIRMASS LIMIT TEMP FALLS AT NIGHT. SHOULD SEE A COUPLE OF DAYS            
WHERE TEMPS DON`T FALL BACK BLO FREEZING. AS FOR PCPN...HAVE OPTED              
TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS OF FCSTS WITH               
REGARD TO LOW POPS FOR -SN THU/THU NIGHT. ALTHOUGH GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST            
A RATHER DRY AIRMASS...STRONG WAA PATTERN (850MB WINDS TO 50KT OVER             
UPPER MI RESULTING FROM SHORTWAVE TRACKING THRU NRN ONTARIO/HUDSON              
BAY REGION) IS SUPPORTIVE OF MAINTAINING A MENTION OF POSSIBLE -SN              
FOR ONE MORE FCST ISSUANCE. FIRST SHORTWAVE HEADING NE FROM THE NEW             
E PACIFIC/WRN N AMERICA TROF SHOULD MAKE A RUN ACROSS THE PLAINS TO             
THE GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT/SAT...BRINGING SOME -RN...WHICH WILL                  
LIKELY BEGIN AS -SN/-FZRA FRI NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND SURGE OF             
WAA WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN SUN. SHOULD BE ALL RAIN AT THAT            
TIME AS LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR WILL BE ESTABLISHED BY THEN PER                      
GFS/ECWMF. BEYOND THIS FCST PERIOD...THERE HAVE BEEN INDICATIONS IN             
SEVERAL OF THE RECENT GFS/ECMWF RUNS THAT A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT              
(MAY INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL) WILL OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING             
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT KSAW AND MOST OF             
THE PERIOD AT KCMX. WHEN THE SNOW STARTS AT KCMX IN THE AFTERNOON               
AND THE WIND SWINGS AROUND TO THE WEST...LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BEGIN            
AND CONDITIONS WILL GO TO IFR TO LIFR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN LAKES WILL GIVE WAY TO A                  
DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY. AS A RESULT...             
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BLO 25 KNOTS. A LOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY               
NIGHT WILL SLIDE QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE             
OVER THE PLAINS BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT                   
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY GALES                   
TUESDAY AS STRONG CAA RESULTS IN STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. LOOK             
FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH TO BLO 25 KTS BY WED EVENING AS THE HIGH PRES             
RIDGE FROM THE PLAINS MOVES OVER THE REGION. SOUTHERLY GALES ARE                
POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A LOW-LEVEL JET CORE DEVELOPS             
OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF ANOTHER NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH.                        
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH 00Z TUE TO 12Z WED MIZ001>003-009-084.                  
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH 12Z TUE TO 12Z WED MIZ005-006.                          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JLB                                                                
LONG TERM...ROLFSON                                                             
AVIATION...JLB                                                                  
MARINE...JLB                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
645 PM EST SUN DEC 30 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
AREAL COVERAGE AND DURATION OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN              
EARLY THIS AVIATION FORECAST CYCLE. AT THIS POINT, IT LOOKS LIKE THE            
DETROIT AREA WILL BE IMPACTED MAINLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH              
MVFR VISIBILITY AND CEILING IN LIGHT SNOW. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ON            
THE BRIEF SIDE AT ALL TERMINALS BUT FLINT AND TRI CITIES HAVE A                 
CHANCE AT A LONGER DURATION MVFR SITUATION AS A SYSTEM OVER CHICAGO             
MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY IN             
THE OVERNIGHT.                                                                  
THE SNOW WILL END LATE TONIGHT AND BE REPLACED BY STRATUS AND LIGHT             
FOG AS MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MOVES IN FROM ILLINOIS AND INDIANA.             
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE GIVING WAY            
TO SLIGHT VISIBILITY IMPROVEMENT. SNOW FROM THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE               
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY EVENING.                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 332 PM EST SUN DEC 30 2007                            
SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT                                                    
HIGH POP/LOW QPF SNOW MINI-EVENT EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF              
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...ROUGHLY SOUTH OF I-69. NORTH OF                     
THERE...JUST SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHEST SNOW                              
ACCUMULATIONS...ONLY ABOUT AN INCH...ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE             
FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE...FROM ST CLAIR COUNTY                    
SOUTHWARD DOWN TO MONROE COUNTY.                                                
UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE CORN BELT THIS AFTERNOON WILL              
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NIGHT. WHILE              
MAIN SURFACE REFLECTION WILL STAY OVER THE CAROLINAS...PAST SEVERAL             
MODEL SUITES HAVE SHOWN A SECONDARY REFLECTION DEVELOPING OVER WEST             
VIRGINIA AND TRACKING UP THROUGH WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE                
LATE EVENING. MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DO                 
INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF THIS FEATURE...AND 12Z MODELS WERE                     
DEFINITELY TOO WEAK WITH IT. ALREADY SOME EVIDENCE OF A DEFORMATION             
BAND FORMING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM PER OBS AND SATELLITE             
IMAGERY...AND MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING THIS                   
DEFORMATION ZONE INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AFTER 00Z TONIGHT. SYSTEM              
WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TO WORK WITH AS JET DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN JUST TO             
OUR SOUTHEAST...AND NO DECENT INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL                 
OCCUR. WILL SEE SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT HOWEVER...AND FORCING DOES LOOK            
TO BE CENTERED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ALLOWING FOR MAXIMUM                
CRYSTAL GROWTH. OVERALL...LIKE THE RUC AND NGM QPF FIELDS THE BEST.             
DID HOWEVER LEAN TOWARDS THE HIGHER END OF THE MODEL QPF                        
FIELDS...GIVEN THAT THE MODELS ARE UNDERDONE WITH THE SYSTEM                    
INTENSITY. WITH THE LOW CENTER ALREADY SO FAR TO OUR EAST SNOWFALL              
WILL BE LIGHT AND FAIRLY SHORT IN DURATION...MOSTLY OCCURRING WITHIN            
A 4 TO 6 HOUR WINDOW THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OUT OF               
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN BY 4 AM.                                                     
IN THE WAKE OF THIS LITTLE SYSTEM...LOW CLOUDS AND MIST WILL LINGER             
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO BECOME ESTABLISHED LATE             
TONIGHT AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST                  
BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED AND STARTS TO ADVANCE INTO THE WESTERN                 
GREAT LAKES.                                                                    
LONG TERM...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS DEPICTING WEAK SHORTWAVE                   
ENERGY EJECTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS                     
AFTERNOON. THIS ENERGY WILL ORGANIZE INTO A STRONGER SHORTWAVE                  
ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY INDUCE WEAK SFC                      
CYCLOGENESIS AS IT PULLS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. MODEL                
TRENDS SINCE THE 00Z CYCLE HAVE BEEN TOWARD A WEAKER AND MORE                   
SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE MAIN SFC LOW...WITH A SECOND WEAKER SFC                  
REFLECTION INDICATED WITHIN THE UNPHASED FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN                   
CANADA. THE 12Z GFS...WITH SUPPORT FROM THE 12Z WRF-HEMI AND                    
CANADIAN...TAKES THE LOW FROM CENTRAL IL ACROSS NORTHERN IN AND                 
INTO LAKE ERIE. THE NAM REMAINS THE FURTHEST SOUTH...KEEPING A                  
STRONGER/MORE COMPACT LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN IN/NORTHEAST OHIO. THE                
12Z ECMWF APPEARS TO BE A GOOD COMPROMISE...MAINTAINING A                       
SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK THAN THE GFS...WHILE ALLOWING FOR                 
BETTER NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF THE MOISTURE/PCPN SHIELD INTO                     
SOUTHEAST LOWER MI COMPARED TO THE VERY DRY LOOKING NAM.                        
FORCING WILL BE LACKING INITIALLY...AND WILL PULL BACK ON POPS FOR              
THE MORNING HOURS.  HOWEVER...BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING THE                     
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ACCENT PROVIDED BY THE UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK             
LOW/MID LEVEL DEFORMATION WILL HELP OVERCOME A LIMITED MOISTURE                 
SOURCE TO BRING SNOW TO ALL OF SOUTHEAST LOWER MI.  MODELS INDICATE             
THE MAIN AXIS OF LARGE SCALE FORCING/OMEGA WILL EXIST JUST SOUTH OF             
THE STATE LINE...LEAVING THE HIGHEST QPF BANDS JUST OUT OF OUR                  
AREA.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED LOW TRACK AND OVERALL                    
VERTICAL MOTION/MOISTURE FIELDS...A BROAD 1-2 INCH SWATH OF SNOWFALL            
STILL SEEMS PLAUSIBLE BY 06Z MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE               
SOUTHERN HALF.  THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS                     
APPROACHING 3 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO TIER OF COUNTIES...AND             
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IN THE                 
TRACK AND BETTER FORCING. WHERE GOOD SYNOPTIC FORCING LACKS ACROSS              
THE THUMB REGION...SOME ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL MAY COME FROM LAKE                  
EFFECT ENHANCEMENT. THE ONLY AREA THAT MAY STRUGGLE TO SEE MUCH                 
SYNOPTIC ACCUMULATION WILL BE IN THE SAGINAW VALLEY...AND WILL                  
SCALE BACK QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY HERE.                                      
12Z MODEL SUITE REMAIN IN STRONG AGREEMENT AND CARRY GOOD RUN TO RUN            
CONTINUITY WITH THE PATTERN EVOLUTION BY MIDWEEK.  THE WEAKER SYSTEM            
LIFTING THROUGH MONDAY WILL LEAD IN A STRONGER SHORTWAVE FOR                    
TUESDAY...WITH THIS ENERGY CARVING OUT A DEEPER LONGWAVE TROUGH AND             
ALLOWING A BRIEF SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR TO SPILL IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/              
WEDNESDAY. STRENGTHENING COLD AIR ADVECTION ON TUESDAY WITH 850 MB              
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW -10C WILL CREATE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE               
CONDITIONS FOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. THE                   
LATEST GFS INDICATING A NARROW CONVERGENCE ZONE DEVELOPING ACROSS               
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE THUMB...WITH A SMALL WINDOW OF                       
PREDOMINANT NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW OVER LAKE HURON INCREASING THE                 
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS IN THESE LOCATIONS LATE TUESDAY.              
MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP BY TUESDAY EVENING AREAWIDE                
AS FORCING/CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY              
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN MI...AND LIKELY POPS REMAIN                      
APPROPRIATE FOR THIS PERIOD. OVERALL...ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS UP              
TO 2 INCHES (HIGHEST NORTH) STILL SEEMS REASONABLE AREAWIDE...WITH              
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED LAKE                  
ENHANCED AREAS ACROSS THE THUMB.                                                
ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD BRIEFLY FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH                
LINGERING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.  BASED ON PROJECTED 850 MB/                   
THICKNESS TRENDS...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY               
FALL...AND NOT REACH MUCH ABOVE THE LOWER 20S.  AT LEAST PARTIAL                
CLEARING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COMBINED WITH A WEAKENING GRADIENT WITH              
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WILL BRING THE                  
COLDEST NIGHT OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  GOING FORECAST WITH LOWS                 
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 5-10F RANGE STILL LOOKING GOOD FOR THURSDAY                
MORNING.                                                                        
BIG PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS              
MODEL CONSENSUS PLACES THE GREAT LAKES WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY DEEP              
SOUTHWEST FLOW...BETWEEN STRENGTHENING RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST COAST            
AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.  THIS                
WILL LEAD TO A PRONOUNCED WARMUP BY THE WEEKEND...WITH 850 MB TEMPS             
CLIMBING INTO THE 5-10C RANGE BY SUNDAY.  IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO             
SCOUR OUT THE ARCTIC AIR INITIALLY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO TEMPER THE            
WARMUP ON THURSDAY...AS THE COLD MORNING START AND SNOW COVER                   
POTENTIAL WILL CERTAINLY COUNTER ANY INCREASE IN WARM AIR ADVECTION/            
RISING THICKNESSES.   HOWEVER...BY THE WEEKEND EXPECT TEMPERATURES              
TO CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY POTENTIALLY                   
APPROACHING 50F ACROSS THE SOUTH. INCREASING ISENTROPIC ACCENT AND              
THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN              
BY SATURDAY...WITH THE THERMAL PROFILES LOOKING MORE LIKE ALL                   
RAIN.                                                                           
MARINE...                                                                       
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BECOME ORGANIZED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST            
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN                
GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TUESDAY            
AS IT TRACKS INTO NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE...A VERY LARGE AND STRONG              
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ITS WAKE TUESDAY OVER THE                   
CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH OUR AREA IN THE CENTER OF THESE TWO                        
STRENGTHENING SYSTEMS...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR            
OVER ALL MARINE AREAS TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.                
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW GALE STRENGTH...BUT SMALL CRAFT              
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.                                               
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION.....BT                                                                 
SHORT TERM...HLO                                                                
LONG TERM....MR                                                                 
MARINE.......HLO                                                                
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
332 PM EST SUN DEC 30 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT                                                   
HIGH POP/LOW QPF SNOW MINI-EVENT EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF              
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...ROUGHLY SOUTH OF I-69. NORTH OF                     
THERE...JUST SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHEST SNOW                              
ACCUMULATIONS...ONLY ABOUT AN INCH...ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE             
FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE...FROM ST CLAIR COUNTY                    
SOUTHWARD DOWN TO MONROE COUNTY.                                                
UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE CORN BELT THIS AFTERNOON WILL              
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NIGHT. WHILE              
MAIN SURFACE REFLECTION WILL STAY OVER THE CAROLINAS...PAST SEVERAL             
MODEL SUITES HAVE SHOWN A SECONDARY REFLECTION DEVELOPING OVER WEST             
VIRGINIA AND TRACKING UP THROUGH WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE                
LATE EVENING. MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DO                 
INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF THIS FEATURE...AND 12Z MODELS WERE                     
DEFINITELY TOO WEAK WITH IT. ALREADY SOME EVIDENCE OF A DEFORMATION             
BAND FORMING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM PER OBS AND SATELLITE             
IMAGERY...AND MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING THIS                   
DEFORMATION ZONE INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AFTER 00Z TONIGHT. SYSTEM              
WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TO WORK WITH AS JET DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN JUST TO             
OUR SOUTHEAST...AND NO DECENT INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL                 
OCCUR. WILL SEE SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT HOWEVER...AND FORCING DOES LOOK            
TO BE CENTERED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ALLOWING FOR MAXIMUM                
CRYSTAL GROWTH. OVERALL...LIKE THE RUC AND NGM QPF FIELDS THE BEST.             
DID HOWEVER LEAN TOWARDS THE HIGHER END OF THE MODEL QPF                        
FIELDS...GIVEN THAT THE MODELS ARE UNDERDONE WITH THE SYSTEM                    
INTENSITY. WITH THE LOW CENTER ALREADY SO FAR TO OUR EAST SNOWFALL              
WILL BE LIGHT AND FAIRLY SHORT IN DURATION...MOSTLY OCCURRING WITHIN            
A 4 TO 6 HOUR WINDOW THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OUT OF               
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN BY 4 AM.                                                     
IN THE WAKE OF THIS LITTLE SYSTEM...LOW CLOUDS AND MIST WILL LINGER             
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO BECOME ESTABLISHED LATE             
TONIGHT AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST                  
BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED AND STARTS TO ADVANCE INTO THE WESTERN                 
GREAT LAKES.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS DEPICTING WEAK SHORTWAVE                   
ENERGY EJECTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS                     
AFTERNOON. THIS ENERGY WILL ORGANIZE INTO A STRONGER SHORTWAVE                  
ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY INDUCE WEAK SFC                      
CYCLOGENESIS AS IT PULLS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. MODEL                
TRENDS SINCE THE 00Z CYCLE HAVE BEEN TOWARD A WEAKER AND MORE                   
SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE MAIN SFC LOW...WITH A SECOND WEAKER SFC                  
REFLECTION INDICATED WITHIN THE UNPHASED FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN                   
CANADA. THE 12Z GFS...WITH SUPPORT FROM THE 12Z WRF-HEMI AND                    
CANADIAN...TAKES THE LOW FROM CENTRAL IL ACROSS NORTHERN IN AND                 
INTO LAKE ERIE. THE NAM REMAINS THE FURTHEST SOUTH...KEEPING A                  
STRONGER/MORE COMPACT LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN IN/NORTHEAST OHIO. THE                
12Z ECMWF APPEARS TO BE A GOOD COMPROMISE...MAINTAINING A                       
SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK THAN THE GFS...WHILE ALLOWING FOR                 
BETTER NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF THE MOISTURE/PCPN SHIELD INTO                     
SOUTHEAST LOWER MI COMPARED TO THE VERY DRY LOOKING NAM.                        
FORCING WILL BE LACKING INITIALLY...AND WILL PULL BACK ON POPS FOR              
THE MORNING HOURS.  HOWEVER...BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING THE                     
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ACCENT PROVIDED BY THE UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK             
LOW/MID LEVEL DEFORMATION WILL HELP OVERCOME A LIMITED MOISTURE                 
SOURCE TO BRING SNOW TO ALL OF SOUTHEAST LOWER MI.  MODELS INDICATE             
THE MAIN AXIS OF LARGE SCALE FORCING/OMEGA WILL EXIST JUST SOUTH OF             
THE STATE LINE...LEAVING THE HIGHEST QPF BANDS JUST OUT OF OUR                  
AREA.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED LOW TRACK AND OVERALL                    
VERTICAL MOTION/MOISTURE FIELDS...A BROAD 1-2 INCH SWATH OF SNOWFALL            
STILL SEEMS PLAUSIBLE BY 06Z MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE               
SOUTHERN HALF.  THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS                     
APPROACHING 3 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO TIER OF COUNTIES...AND             
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IN THE                 
TRACK AND BETTER FORCING. WHERE GOOD SYNOPTIC FORCING LACKS ACROSS              
THE THUMB REGION...SOME ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL MAY COME FROM LAKE                  
EFFECT ENHANCEMENT. THE ONLY AREA THAT MAY STRUGGLE TO SEE MUCH                 
SYNOPTIC ACCUMULATION WILL BE IN THE SAGINAW VALLEY...AND WILL                  
SCALE BACK QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY HERE.                                      
12Z MODEL SUITE REMAIN IN STRONG AGREEMENT AND CARRY GOOD RUN TO RUN            
CONTINUITY WITH THE PATTERN EVOLUTION BY MIDWEEK.  THE WEAKER SYSTEM            
LIFTING THROUGH MONDAY WILL LEAD IN A STRONGER SHORTWAVE FOR                    
TUESDAY...WITH THIS ENERGY CARVING OUT A DEEPER LONGWAVE TROUGH AND             
ALLOWING A BRIEF SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR TO SPILL IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/              
WEDNESDAY. STRENGTHENING COLD AIR ADVECTION ON TUESDAY WITH 850 MB              
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW -10C WILL CREATE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE               
CONDITIONS FOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. THE                   
LATEST GFS INDICATING A NARROW CONVERGENCE ZONE DEVELOPING ACROSS               
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE THUMB...WITH A SMALL WINDOW OF                       
PREDOMINANT NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW OVER LAKE HURON INCREASING THE                 
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS IN THESE LOCATIONS LATE TUESDAY.              
MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP BY TUESDAY EVENING AREAWIDE                
AS FORCING/CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY              
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN MI...AND LIKELY POPS REMAIN                      
APPROPRIATE FOR THIS PERIOD. OVERALL...ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS UP              
TO 2 INCHES (HIGHEST NORTH) STILL SEEMS REASONABLE AREAWIDE...WITH              
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED LAKE                  
ENHANCED AREAS ACROSS THE THUMB.                                                
ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD BRIEFLY FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH                
LINGERING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.  BASED ON PROJECTED 850 MB/                   
THICKNESS TRENDS...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY               
FALL...AND NOT REACH MUCH ABOVE THE LOWER 20S.  AT LEAST PARTIAL                
CLEARING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COMBINED WITH A WEAKENING GRADIENT WITH              
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WILL BRING THE                  
COLDEST NIGHT OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  GOING FORECAST WITH LOWS                 
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 5-10F RANGE STILL LOOKING GOOD FOR THURSDAY                
MORNING.                                                                        
BIG PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS              
MODEL CONSENSUS PLACES THE GREAT LAKES WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY DEEP              
SOUTHWEST FLOW...BETWEEN STRENGTHENING RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST COAST            
AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.  THIS                
WILL LEAD TO A PRONOUNCED WARMUP BY THE WEEKEND...WITH 850 MB TEMPS             
CLIMBING INTO THE 5-10C RANGE BY SUNDAY.  IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO             
SCOUR OUT THE ARCTIC AIR INITIALLY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO TEMPER THE            
WARMUP ON THURSDAY...AS THE COLD MORNING START AND SNOW COVER                   
POTENTIAL WILL CERTAINLY COUNTER ANY INCREASE IN WARM AIR ADVECTION/            
RISING THICKNESSES.   HOWEVER...BY THE WEEKEND EXPECT TEMPERATURES              
TO CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY POTENTIALLY                   
APPROACHING 50F ACROSS THE SOUTH. INCREASING ISENTROPIC ACCENT AND              
THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN              
BY SATURDAY...WITH THE THERMAL PROFILES LOOKING MORE LIKE ALL                   
RAIN.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BECOME ORGANIZED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST            
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN                
GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TUESDAY            
AS IT TRACKS INTO NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE...A VERY LARGE AND STRONG              
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ITS WAKE TUESDAY OVER THE                   
CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH OUR AREA IN THE CENTER OF THESE TWO                        
STRENGTHENING SYSTEMS...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR            
OVER ALL MARINE AREAS TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.                
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW GALE STRENGTH...BUT SMALL CRAFT              
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.                                               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1249 PM EST SUN DEC 30 2007                           
AVIATION...                                                                     
SOME HOLES HAVE BEGUN TO APPEAR IN THE STRATUS DECK THIS                        
AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF LOWER               
MICHIGAN. FNT AND MBS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO VFR CONDITIONS AND             
REMAIN THERE UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION TONIGHT.                  
ABUNDANCE OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE DETROIT                  
AREA WILL KEEP THE STRATUS DECK INTACT OVER DTW AND DET THIS                    
AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE THE FORECAST FOR MVFR CEILINGS THERE              
UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN.                                 
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER PENNSYLVANIA THIS                    
EVENING. SNOW WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH END OF THIS SYSTEM WILL                 
MOVE INTO LOWER MICHIGAN...PRIMARILY AFTER 00Z. WILL THEN SEE                   
ABOUT A 4 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW THAT WILL PRIMARILY                    
IMPACT DTW AND DET. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THERE WILL DROP INTO              
IFR TONIGHT AS THIS AREA OF SNOWFALL MOVES THROUGH. ACCUMULATIONS               
WILL BE UNDER AN INCH.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...HLO                                                                
LONG TERM....MR                                                                 
MARINE.......HLO                                                                
AVIATION.....HLO                                                                
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1245 PM EST SUN DEC 30 2007                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WV AND 500MB RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A LONGWAVE TROUGH SPREAD ACROSS THE              
CONUS. THERE IS A STRONG SHORTWAVE AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH                    
SITUATED ON THE OK/TX BORDER...AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER                       
WASHINGTON. THE OK/TX SHORTWAVE WILL DIG ITS WAY INTO THE OHIO RIVER            
VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT AND NOT REALLY IMPACT OUR CWA. THE WA                  
SHORTWAVE WILL DIG AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS ON             
MONDAY AND PLAY A PART IN OUR WEATHER ON TUE. MEANWHILE...A VORTEX              
OVER NORTH CENTRAL CANADA IS PROGGED TO DIP DOWN INTO MN AROUND 12Z             
TUE. THIS STRONG 500MB SHORTWAVE WILL INTERACT WITH THE WA TROUGH               
AND SFC LOW PRES WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AREA TUE            
MORNING. BEHIND THE SFC LOW...ARCTIC AIR WILL FILTER DOWN ACROSS                
LAKE SUPERIOR AND KICK UP SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT LAKE ENHANCED AND             
LAKE EFFECT SNOW TUE AND TUE NIGHT. LES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED               
NIGHT UNTIL SOUTHERLY FLOW RESUMES ON THU.                                      
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
TODAY...LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ARE SPREAD ACROSS UPPER MI AND NORTH                
CENTRAL WI AS WAA AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FILTER INTO THE AREA. A              
VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE REGION IS ALSO APPARENT IN WV IMAGERY.             
KEPT ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS GOING FOR MOST OF THE CWA THROUGH EARLY              
AFTERNOON. A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE SITUATED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL             
KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SLOWLY LIFTING                  
NORTHWARD AND AWAY FROM THE KEWEENAW.                                           
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...WAA AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO             
SOME LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE FAR EASTERN U.P. (LAKE              
ENHANCEMENT OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW). THERE IS             
MOISTURE AVAILABLE...BUT BETTER FORCING AND MORE MOISTURE ENTER THE             
PICTURE AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR NOW...KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR THE WHOLE                
NIGHT...BUT MAY BE ABLE TO INCREASE POPS FOR AFTER 06Z DURING NEXT              
FORECAST UPDATE. MONDAY...SIMILAR FORCING CONTINUES. RAISED POPS                
SLIGHTLY IN THE AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR DEEPER MOISTURE. STILL HAVE            
LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE OF THIS PCPN.                                     
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL BEGIN                  
ACROSS THE WESTERN U.P. AS THE WINDS CHANGE TO NW OVERNIGHT. WENT               
WITH 20:1 SNOW RATIO FOR MON NIGHT...THEN INCREASED THE RATIO TO                
25:1 FOR TUE...AND INCREASED IT EVEN MORE TO 30:1 FOR TUE NIGHT AND             
WED. AS TWO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES CROSS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR MON                 
NIGHT THROUGH TUE...SNOWFALL MAY TOTAL UP TO WARNING CRITERIA IN                
SOME LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE AREAS. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO                 
GOING QPF/SNOWFALL FIELDS. DECREASED LOW TEMPS TUE NIGHT...HIGH                 
TEMPS WED...AND LOW TEMPS WED NIGHT A TINY BIT. DECREASED DEW POINT             
TEMPS TUE NIGHT...AS WELL.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
SATELLITE LOOPS SUGGESTS THAT AREAS OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER WEST             
AND CENTRAL UPPER MI MAY FILL BACK IN WITH DIUNRAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT            
AND ADVECTION OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WHERE MORE PROMINENT                   
STRATUS WAS OBSERVED. BY TONIGHT MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THAT              
SHOULD PERSIST INTO MON MORNING AS A STRONG 3K-4K FT INVERSION                  
PERSISTS OVER THE REGION.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SHOULD KEEP WINDS BLO 25 KNOTS INTO            
MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS               
WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. A TIGHT NRLY               
GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW ON MON NIGHT INTO              
TUE AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS. KEPT GOING FCST             
OF WINDS TO 30 KT ALTHOUGH GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE              
AS COLD ADVECTION/MIXING ALLOWS HIGHER WIND GUSTS TO REACH THE                  
SURFACE OF THE LAKE. LOOK FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH TO BLO 25 KTS BY WED            
EVENING AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE FROM THE PLAINS MOVES OVER THE                   
REGION. GALES ARE POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A LOW-LEVEL             
JET CORE DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF ANOTHER NORTHERN PLAINS              
TROUGH.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...MRC                                                       
AVIATION...JLB                                                                  
MARINE...JV                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1200 AM EST SUN DEC 30 2007                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO                    
SOUTHERN OHIO IS MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING,             
AND HELPING TO SCOUR AWAY THE STRATUS IN ITS WAKE. THIS IS                      
CORRELATED NICELY ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WITH THE                
EDGE OF THE STRATUS LINED UP ROUGHLY ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS. THE                  
CLEARING LINE WILL MAKE IT TO THE DETROIT AREA AROUND SUNRISE BUT               
THE PLAN IS TO DELAY THE TIMING AT FLINT AND TRI CITES UNTIL LATER              
IN THE MORNING OR CLOSER TO NOON AS THE RIDGE AXIS REORIENTS ITSELF             
MORE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. A SHORT BREAK OF VFR CONDITIONS IS THEN            
EXPECTED AT DETROIT BEFORE MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH AGAIN BY             
EVENING. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING HOURS              
AND TAKE CONDITIONS BACK DOWN TO MVFR.                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 314 PM EST SAT DEC 29 2007                            
SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT                                                    
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND               
EXTEND UP INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER            
AND ALLOW WINDS TO RELAX.                                                       
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM REMAINS CENTERED AROUND              
THE POSSIBLE BREAK-UP OF THE STRATUS DECK ENTRENCHED OVER THE                   
REGION. WESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN HAS HELPED KEEP THIS DECK               
INTACT THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z DTX SOUNDING INDICATES THE MIXED LAYER TO            
BE POTENTIALLY 5000 FEET DEEP...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS                
LAYER SHRINKING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER.               
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW THE AIRMASS REMAINING FAIRLY SATURATED             
IN THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE SOME                 
DRIER AIR IS MIXED DOWN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. MODELS LOOK TOO              
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS MIXING AS THEY ARE TOO WARM WITH SURFACE                   
TEMPERATURES AND AT LEAST 1000 FEET TOO LOW WITH THE INVERSION                  
HEIGHTS (WHERE DRIER AIR RESIDES ABOVE). THINK THE LOWER LAYERS WILL            
STAY A LITTLE MORE MOIST THAN INDICATED...FAVORING A MORE INTACT                
DECK.                                                                           
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL UPPER SHORTWAVE TRACKING UP                   
THROUGH ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. NAM AND RUC MODELS HAVE THE BEST                  
HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE...BUT LARGELY SHEAR IT OUT BEFORE IT REACHES             
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE MICHIGAN/OHIO BORDER BY 00Z. UPSTREAM                
OVER ILLINOIS...THIS FEATURE HAS HELPED CLEAR OUT MOST OF THE                   
STRATUS. HOWEVER...NOT SURE IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BREAK UP THE            
DECK OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.                                           
TAKING INTO ACCOUNT ALL THIS INFORMATION...WILL KEEP THE DECK                   
LARGELY INTACT FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. EXPECTING A FEW              
BREAKS TO APPEAR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOWEVER.               
CIRRUS SHIELD WILL EXPAND OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE             
OHIO VALLEY AS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKIES BECOMES              
MORE AMPLIFIED. HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN              
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING...THROUGH THEY               
WILL ARRIVE TOO LATE TO HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT            
LOWS WILL RUN 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW LAST NIGHT`S MILD                           
READINGS...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.                                 
LONG TERM...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ON SUNDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO                  
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INDUCES COASTAL ATLANTIC CYCLOGENESIS.                 
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY FROM TODAY...AS THE                
GRADIENT TAKES ON MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AND THINNER                     
HIGH/MID CLOUDS CONTROL THE SKY CONDITION. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS                 
HINT AT SECONDARY WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE                          
APPALACHIANS... ALLOWING FOR A NARROW AREA OF LGT PCPN TO DEVELOP               
ALONG THE DEFORMATION AXIS LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHWEST OHIO                
THROUGH LAKE ERIE SUNDAY EVENING. THE VERY NORTHWEST EDGE OF THIS               
MAY CLIP EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOWER MI...AND WILL JUST INTRODUCE A                 
SLIGHT CHANCE POP THROUGH 06Z FROM MONROE TO MACOMB COUNTY FOR                  
VERY LGT SNOW SHOWERS WITH NO ACCUMS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...WILL                 
BACK OFF ON POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...AS MODEL CONSENSUS                  
REMAINS SUFFICIENT THAT IMPACTS FROM THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM                
WILL HOLD UNTIL MONDAY.                                                         
THIS SYSTEM BECOMES THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...                 
LIKELY IMPACTING MUCH OF SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN LATE ON NEW YEARS             
EVE.  SHORTWAVE MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA LATE                     
TONIGHT...WILL DROP SOUTHEAST WITHIN THE MEAN CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH...            
STRENGTHENING SLIGHTLY AND INDUCING SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES             
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/GREAT LAKES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.  IN                  
RESPONSE TO THE DIFFICULTY IN RESOLVING SUCH A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE               
BEFORE IT CAN BE PROPERLY SAMPLED...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE             
WITH THE FINER DETAILS WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE BIGGEST STRUGGLES            
INVOLVING WHERE TO PLACE THE BEST FORCING AND ASSOCIATED MAIN                   
MOISTURE AXIS.                                                                  
ALL MODELS AGREE ON TAKING THE SFC LOW FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS                 
NORTHERN/CENTRAL LOWER MI.  HOWEVER...THE NAM (WITH SUPPORT FROM                
SREF OUTPUT) MAINTAINS A MUCH MORE COMPACT SYSTEM...AND FOCUSES THE             
BULK OF THE PCPN FROM THE SAGINAW VALLEY NORTHWARD.  MEANWHILE...THE            
GFS INDICATES A MUCH BROADER SYSTEM...WITH A HIGHER AXIS OF QPF                 
(.1-.2") SOUTH OF THE SFC LOW FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE             
ZONE AND WITHIN AN AREA OF ENHANCED FORCING PROVIDED BY THE                     
SHORTWAVE.  THE ECMWF SHOWS A SIMILAR DEPICTION...ONLY WITH MUCH                
LESS QPF IN A SHORTER DURATION.  GIVEN THE POOR CONSENSUS...WILL                
GENERALLY TAKE A BLEND...ADJUSTING PCPN AMOUNTS UP SLIGHTLY ACROSS              
THE SOUTH BUT UNDERCUTTING THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SHOWN BY THE GFS.                 
THIS WILL MAKE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES                    
POSSIBLE AREAWIDE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR             
NARROW CORRIDOR OF HIGHER END AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES SOMEWHERE                  
WITHIN THE CWA.                                                                 
DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS WITH REGARD TO THE PATTERN EVOLUTION              
FOR MID-WEEK...WITH A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE                
CENTRAL TO EASTERN CONUS...WHILE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST.                
THIS AMPLIFIED FLOW WILL LIKELY BRING THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE                
SEASON SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AS COLD AIR ADVECTION                   
DEVELOPS TUESDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING NEW YEARS EVE SYSTEM...WITH A             
REINFORCING ARCTIC COLD FRONT ARRIVING BY TUESDAY NIGHT.  GREAT                 
LAKES REGION WILL LIKELY SEE JUST A GLANCING BLOW WITH THIS ARCTIC              
SURGE WITH THE BETTER DROP IN 850 MB TEMPS/THICKNESSES OCCURRING                
ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST...WITH SOME AIRMASS MODIFICATION BY THE               
UPSTREAM LAKES LIKELY UPON ARRIVAL TUES NGT/WEDNESDAY.                          
NONETHELESS...HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW/MID 20S UNDER A GUSTY NORTHWEST             
GRADIENT STILL LOOKS REASONABLE ON WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE PROJECTED                
850MB TEMPS. A WEAKENING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD AND PARTIAL CLEARING              
WILL BRING SOME ENHANCED RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL WED NGT...AND            
WILL REMAIN BELOW GUIDANCE WITH MANY LOCATIONS (OUTSIDE OF THE                  
DETROIT URBAN HEAT ISLAND) SEEING LOWS IN THE 8-12F RANGE THURSDAY              
MORNING.                                                                        
THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE                       
850 MB TEMPS/LAPSE RATES...ENHANCED VORTICITY WITHIN THE BROAD                  
CYCLONIC FLOW...AND ADDED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE PROVIDED BY THE                 
ARCTIC FRONT...WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWER                   
ACTIVITY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.  MODELS REALLY KEYING ON THE                
ARCTIC BOUNDARY FOR MORE ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT FROM 18-03Z LATE                 
TUESDAY...WITH POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMS OF 1-2 INCHES (HIGHEST NORTH).             
MODELS INSISTING ON A QUICK RECOVERY OF THE AIRMASS BACK TOWARD MORE            
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURE READINGS BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH                   
PRONOUNCED WARM AIR ADVECTION/RISING THICKNESSES DEVELOPING ON THE              
BACKSIDE OF A DEPARTING SFC HIGH.  WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN                 
AND ENSEMBLES ALL AGREE ON THIS...WILL CONTINUE TO TEMPER THE WARMUP            
SLIGHTLY THURSDAY THE COLD MORNING START AND THE TYPICAL MODEL BIAS             
FOR SCOURING OUT AN ARCTIC AIRMASS TOO QUICKLY.  ALSO...THE UPSTREAM            
UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO DAMPEN AS IT ARRIVES...THUS LESSENING THE                  
OVERALL DEPTH/STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW.  TEMPERATURES              
WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE READINGS BY FRIDAY.                              
MARINE...                                                                       
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE WATERS            
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC                   
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE                   
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.                                                           
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND               
MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM              
WILL HAVE TO POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS OVER MUCH OF            
LAKE HURON FROM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.                
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...                                                                   
     GALE WATCH...LHZ361-LHZ362-LHZ363-LHZ462-LHZ463-LHZ464...FROM 4 AM         
     TUESDAY TO 7 AM WEDNESDAY.                                                 
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION.....BT                                                                 
SHORT TERM...HLO                                                                
LONG TERM....MR                                                                 
MARINE.......HLO                                                                
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
648 PM EST SAT DEC 29 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
STRATUS REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE                
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE, AND OVER SE MICHIGAN, THIS EVENING. SATELLITE              
IMAGERY DOES SHOW THE EDGE MAKING PROGRESS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH             
ILLINOIS, A TREND WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY                  
MORNING HOURS. GIVEN THE TRAPPED NATURE OF THE MOISTURE IN THE                  
BOUNDARY LAYER, AS IS USUALLY THE CASE, IT WILL REQUIRE AN AIR MASS             
CHANGE TO CLEAR OUT THE SKY OVER OUR AREA. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE               
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD THE NORTH AND EAST AND LOW LEVEL FLOW               
TURNS MORE TOWARD THE SOUTH. THE CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION, ALONG                
WITH THE RELATIVE POSITION OF THE SURFACE RIDGE, WILL SERVE AS A                
GOOD TRACER FOR THE CLEARING TREND IN THE STRATUS LATE IN THE                   
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MVFR CEILING WILL THEN BECOME               
VFR AS THE LOW CLOUDS ARE REPLACED BY THICK CIRRUS DURING SUNDAY                
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 314 PM EST SAT DEC 29 2007                            
SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT                                                    
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND               
EXTEND UP INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER            
AND ALLOW WINDS TO RELAX.                                                       
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM REMAINS CENTERED AROUND              
THE POSSIBLE BREAK-UP OF THE STRATUS DECK ENTRENCHED OVER THE                   
REGION. WESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN HAS HELPED KEEP THIS DECK               
INTACT THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z DTX SOUNDING INDICATES THE MIXED LAYER TO            
BE POTENTIALLY 5000 FEET DEEP...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS                
LAYER SHRINKING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER.               
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW THE AIRMASS REMAINING FAIRLY SATURATED             
IN THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE SOME                 
DRIER AIR IS MIXED DOWN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. MODELS LOOK TOO              
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS MIXING AS THEY ARE TOO WARM WITH SURFACE                   
TEMPERATURES AND AT LEAST 1000 FEET TOO LOW WITH THE INVERSION                  
HEIGHTS (WHERE DRIER AIR RESIDES ABOVE). THINK THE LOWER LAYERS WILL            
STAY A LITTLE MORE MOIST THAN INDICATED...FAVORING A MORE INTACT                
DECK.                                                                           
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL UPPER SHORTWAVE TRACKING UP                   
THROUGH ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. NAM AND RUC MODELS HAVE THE BEST                  
HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE...BUT LARGELY SHEAR IT OUT BEFORE IT REACHES             
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE MICHIGAN/OHIO BORDER BY 00Z. UPSTREAM                
OVER ILLINOIS...THIS FEATURE HAS HELPED CLEAR OUT MOST OF THE                   
STRATUS. HOWEVER...NOT SURE IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BREAK UP THE            
DECK OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.                                           
TAKING INTO ACCOUNT ALL THIS INFORMATION...WILL KEEP THE DECK                   
LARGELY INTACT FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. EXPECTING A FEW              
BREAKS TO APPEAR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOWEVER.               
CIRRUS SHIELD WILL EXPAND OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE             
OHIO VALLEY AS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKIES BECOMES              
MORE AMPLIFIED. HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN              
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING...THROUGH THEY               
WILL ARRIVE TOO LATE TO HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT            
LOWS WILL RUN 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW LAST NIGHT`S MILD                           
READINGS...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.                                 
LONG TERM...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ON SUNDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO                  
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INDUCES COASTAL ATLANTIC CYCLOGENESIS.                 
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY FROM TODAY...AS THE                
GRADIENT TAKES ON MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AND THINNER                     
HIGH/MID CLOUDS CONTROL THE SKY CONDITION. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS                 
HINT AT SECONDARY WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE                          
APPALACHIANS... ALLOWING FOR A NARROW AREA OF LGT PCPN TO DEVELOP               
ALONG THE DEFORMATION AXIS LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHWEST OHIO                
THROUGH LAKE ERIE SUNDAY EVENING. THE VERY NORTHWEST EDGE OF THIS               
MAY CLIP EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOWER MI...AND WILL JUST INTRODUCE A                 
SLIGHT CHANCE POP THROUGH 06Z FROM MONROE TO MACOMB COUNTY FOR                  
VERY LGT SNOW SHOWERS WITH NO ACCUMS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...WILL                 
BACK OFF ON POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...AS MODEL CONSENSUS                  
REMAINS SUFFICIENT THAT IMPACTS FROM THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM                
WILL HOLD UNTIL MONDAY.                                                         
THIS SYSTEM BECOMES THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...                 
LIKELY IMPACTING MUCH OF SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN LATE ON NEW YEARS             
EVE.  SHORTWAVE MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA LATE                     
TONIGHT...WILL DROP SOUTHEAST WITHIN THE MEAN CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH...            
STRENGTHENING SLIGHTLY AND INDUCING SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES             
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/GREAT LAKES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.  IN                  
RESPONSE TO THE DIFFICULTY IN RESOLVING SUCH A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE               
BEFORE IT CAN BE PROPERLY SAMPLED...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE             
WITH THE FINER DETAILS WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE BIGGEST STRUGGLES            
INVOLVING WHERE TO PLACE THE BEST FORCING AND ASSOCIATED MAIN                   
MOISTURE AXIS.                                                                  
ALL MODELS AGREE ON TAKING THE SFC LOW FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS                 
NORTHERN/CENTRAL LOWER MI.  HOWEVER...THE NAM (WITH SUPPORT FROM                
SREF OUTPUT) MAINTAINS A MUCH MORE COMPACT SYSTEM...AND FOCUSES THE             
BULK OF THE PCPN FROM THE SAGINAW VALLEY NORTHWARD.  MEANWHILE...THE            
GFS INDICATES A MUCH BROADER SYSTEM...WITH A HIGHER AXIS OF QPF                 
(.1-.2") SOUTH OF THE SFC LOW FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE             
ZONE AND WITHIN AN AREA OF ENHANCED FORCING PROVIDED BY THE                     
SHORTWAVE.  THE ECMWF SHOWS A SIMILAR DEPICTION...ONLY WITH MUCH                
LESS QPF IN A SHORTER DURATION.  GIVEN THE POOR CONSENSUS...WILL                
GENERALLY TAKE A BLEND...ADJUSTING PCPN AMOUNTS UP SLIGHTLY ACROSS              
THE SOUTH BUT UNDERCUTTING THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SHOWN BY THE GFS.                 
THIS WILL MAKE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES                    
POSSIBLE AREAWIDE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR             
NARROW CORRIDOR OF HIGHER END AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES SOMEWHERE                  
WITHIN THE CWA.                                                                 
DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS WITH REGARD TO THE PATTERN EVOLUTION              
FOR MID-WEEK...WITH A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE                
CENTRAL TO EASTERN CONUS...WHILE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST.                
THIS AMPLIFIED FLOW WILL LIKELY BRING THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE                
SEASON SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AS COLD AIR ADVECTION                   
DEVELOPS TUESDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING NEW YEARS EVE SYSTEM...WITH A             
REINFORCING ARCTIC COLD FRONT ARRIVING BY TUESDAY NIGHT.  GREAT                 
LAKES REGION WILL LIKELY SEE JUST A GLANCING BLOW WITH THIS ARCTIC              
SURGE WITH THE BETTER DROP IN 850 MB TEMPS/THICKNESSES OCCURRING                
ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST...WITH SOME AIRMASS MODIFICATION BY THE               
UPSTREAM LAKES LIKELY UPON ARRIVAL TUES NGT/WEDNESDAY.                          
NONETHELESS...HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW/MID 20S UNDER A GUSTY NORTHWEST             
GRADIENT STILL LOOKS REASONABLE ON WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE PROJECTED                
850MB TEMPS. A WEAKENING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD AND PARTIAL CLEARING              
WILL BRING SOME ENHANCED RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL WED NGT...AND            
WILL REMAIN BELOW GUIDANCE WITH MANY LOCATIONS (OUTSIDE OF THE                  
DETROIT URBAN HEAT ISLAND) SEEING LOWS IN THE 8-12F RANGE THURSDAY              
MORNING.                                                                        
THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE                       
850 MB TEMPS/LAPSE RATES...ENHANCED VORTICITY WITHIN THE BROAD                  
CYCLONIC FLOW...AND ADDED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE PROVIDED BY THE                 
ARCTIC FRONT...WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWER                   
ACTIVITY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.  MODELS REALLY KEYING ON THE                
ARCTIC BOUNDARY FOR MORE ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT FROM 18-03Z LATE                 
TUESDAY...WITH POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMS OF 1-2 INCHES (HIGHEST NORTH).             
MODELS INSISTING ON A QUICK RECOVERY OF THE AIRMASS BACK TOWARD MORE            
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURE READINGS BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH                   
PRONOUNCED WARM AIR ADVECTION/RISING THICKNESSES DEVELOPING ON THE              
BACKSIDE OF A DEPARTING SFC HIGH.  WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN                 
AND ENSEMBLES ALL AGREE ON THIS...WILL CONTINUE TO TEMPER THE WARMUP            
SLIGHTLY THURSDAY THE COLD MORNING START AND THE TYPICAL MODEL BIAS             
FOR SCOURING OUT AN ARCTIC AIRMASS TOO QUICKLY.  ALSO...THE UPSTREAM            
UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO DAMPEN AS IT ARRIVES...THUS LESSENING THE                  
OVERALL DEPTH/STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW.  TEMPERATURES              
WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE READINGS BY FRIDAY.                              
MARINE...                                                                       
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE WATERS            
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC                   
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE                   
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.                                                           
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND               
MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM              
WILL HAVE TO POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS OVER MUCH OF            
LAKE HURON FROM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.                
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...                                                                   
     GALE WATCH...LHZ361-LHZ362-LHZ363-LHZ462-LHZ463-LHZ464...FROM 4 AM         
     TUESDAY TO 7 AM WEDNESDAY.                                                 
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION.....BT                                                                 
SHORT TERM...HLO                                                                
LONG TERM....MR                                                                 
MARINE.......HLO                                                                
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
634 PM EST SAT DEC 29 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)                                              
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE CONUS             
WITH THE STRONGEST JET ENERGY WELL TO THE SOUTH. A WEAK SHORTWAVE               
TROUGH OVER NRN WI WAS SHEARING OUT AS IT MOVES INTO MORE CONFLUENT             
FLOR FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO ERN CANADA. WEAK 275K-280K ISENTROPIC            
LIFT FROM NW WI TOWARD W UPPER MI SUPPORTED SOME LIGHT SNOW OR                  
FLURRIES FROM ERN MN INTO NW WI. RADAR REFLECTIVITIES...PER KDLH                
RADAR...WERE MAINLY 10 DBZ OR LESS. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS              
ALSO CONTINUED INTO THE KEWEENAW AND NE CWA WITH WEAK 10-20 KT WRLY             
CBL FLOW. OTHERWISE...CLOUD SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR              
SOUTH CWA.                                                                      
TONIGHT...EXPECT THE AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH LIGHT SNOW OR            
FLURRIES TO CONTINUE MOVING NE. SO...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE                    
INCLUDED THIS EVENING TIL THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NE OF THE AREA. THE               
NAM AND LCL HIGH RES WRF/ARW SUGGEST THAT THE WEAK WEST WINDS WILL              
ALLOW A LAKE INDUCED TROF TO DEVELOP FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR ACROSS              
THE KEWEENAW. LOW LEVEL CONV WITH THIS FEATURE COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS            
FOR ENHANCED LES AS 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -12C (LAKE-H8 DELTA TO TO               
AROUND 15C) AND INVERSION HEIGHTS ABOVE 7K FT(MOISTURE TO AT LEAST              
10K FT) WILL FAVOR POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE LES.                         
HOWEVER...SINCE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT...PLACEMENT            
AND MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE             
WERE MENTIONED. HOWEVER...IF A STRONGER BAND DEVELOPS SEVERAL MORE              
INCHES WOULD BE EXPECTED.                                                       
SUNDAY...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD LIFT NORTHEAST AS MORE SW            
LARGE SCALE FLOW TAKES OVER. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL WAA WITH MOISTURE            
BENEATH A STRENGTHENING INVERSION SHOULD KEEP STRATUS IN PLACE.                 
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES BUT WOULD BE ISOLD/BRIEF. MOISTURE TO            
-10C AND INCREASING SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SHOULD MINIMIZE ANY                
FZDZ POTENTIAL.                                                                 
.LONG TERM (SUN NIGHT THRU SAT)...                                              
SUN NIGHT THRU TUE...TROF OVER THE CNTRL INTO THE ERN CONUS WILL                
BEGIN TO SHARPEN DUE TO UPSTREAM RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE W COAST. A            
COUPLE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVES WILL AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES (FIRST MON            
AND SECOND TUE)...BUT IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE FORCING WITH EACH              
WILL PASS S OF THE FCST AREA. AT THE SFC...BROAD LOW PRES OVER THE              
NRN PLAINS SUN NIGHT WILL MOVE TO THE LWR LAKES BY TUE MORNING AND              
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WELL DEFINED AS SECOND SHORTWAVE SWINGS INTO              
THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL OF S TO SW FLOW            
LES/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW TO AFFECT THE FAR ERN FCST AREA AHEAD OF LOW             
PRES...MANY OF THE MODELS ARE TRENDING AWAY FROM SRLY FLOW INTO                 
UPPER MI SINCE LOW IS INITIALLY BROAD/POORLY DEFINED. UNTIL MODEL               
AGREEMENT BECOMES BETTER...WILL STAY ALONG THE LINES OF PREVIOUS                
FCSTS WHICH HAVE SHOWN SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS OVER THE FAR ERN FCST               
AREA SUN NIGHT/MON TO COVER THE POTENTIAL. ELSEWHERE...THERE IS                 
NOTHING SIGNIFICANT TO TIE PCPN CHANCES TO SUN NIGHT/MON. SINCE THE             
FCST AREA IS JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MAIN MIDLEVEL TROF                   
AXIS...BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS PROBABLY TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH            
PREVIOUS FCST (LOW CHC POPS ACROSS THE BOARD). SECOND SHORTWAVE                 
PASSING THRU THE GREAT LAKES MON NIGHT/TUE WILL OFFER A BETTER                  
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHSN ACROSS THE FCST AREA. IT WILL ALSO GET LES                 
GOING. IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE...A SHARP SFC TROF WILL                     
DROP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR INTO UPPER MI LATE MON NIGHT/TUE                      
MORNING...TRIGGERING A PERIOD OF MDT TO POSSIBLY HVY LAKE ENHANCED              
SNOW FOR PROBABLY ALL AREAS NEAR THE LAKE AS WINDS SHIFT NRLY. PURE             
LES REGIME WILL THEN DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS               
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. LES WILL ALSO SHIFT AS NRLY             
WINDS TUE BACK NW TUE NIGHT. EXPECT THE LATE MON NIGHT/TUE PERIOD TO            
BE A HEADLINE EVENT FOR MOST IF NOT ALL THE COUNTIES BORDERING LAKE             
SUPERIOR. IT WILL CERTAINLY BE AN ADVY. WHETHER OR NOT WARNING                  
AMOUNTS CAN BE REACHED WILL DEPEND ON HOW SIGNIFICANT THE LAKE                  
ENHANCED PORTION OF THE EVENT WILL BE...AND THAT WON`T BE KNOWN                 
UNTIL THE EVENT GETS CLOSER IN TIME. AT THE MOMENT...IT LOOKS LIKE              
AN ADVY WILL COVER IT.                                                          
WED THRU SAT...BIG CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WILL OCCUR DURING THIS                 
PERIOD AS ERN CONUS TROF SHIFTS TO THE WRN ATLANTIC...WRN NAMERICA              
RIDGE BROADENS AND SHIFTS EWD...AND TROFFING DEVELOPS JUST OFF THE W            
COAST. LATEST GFS/ECMWF RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY GOOD CONTINUITY              
WITH PREVIOUS RUNS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...SUGGESTING A STRONG             
SIGNAL IS THERE FOR THIS CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. NEAR/SLIGHTLY BLO               
NORMAL TEMPS TUE/WED ASSOCIATED WITH TROF WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL               
FOR FRI/SAT WITH WARM REGIME CONTINUING BEYOND THIS FCST PERIOD INTO            
AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT THE BIGGEST IMPACT OF WARMING ON               
MIN TEMPS WHICH WILL LIKELY HAVE INCREASINGLY GREATER DEPARTURES                
FROM NORMAL THAN MAX TEMPS AS THE WARMING TREND LENGTHENS. WOULD NOT            
BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPS STRUGGLE TO FALL BACK BLO FREEZING AT                 
NIGHT AT SOME POINT OVER THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS FOR PCPN...            
LES WILL WIND DOWN WED AND SHOULD END WED NIGHT FROM W TO E AS SFC              
RIDGE PASSES AND WAA GETS UNDERWAY. GFS SUGGESTS ONE LAST SHORTWAVE             
WILL DROP SE TOWARD THE DEPARTING LONGWAVE TROF THU/FRI. ECMWF                  
INDICATES THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PASS MUCH FARTHER TO THE N THAN THE               
GFS. SINCE THE GFS ENSEMBLES LEND SUPPORT FOR AN ECMWF TYPE                     
SOLUTION...WILL LEAN STRONGLY TOWARD ITS SOLUTION FROM THU ONWARD.              
NICE TO SEE THAT THE 12Z GFS TRENDED TOWARD THE PREFERRED ECMWF                 
SOLUTION. ALTHOUGH AIRMASS LOOKS QUITE DRY...STRONG WAA (850MB WINDS            
TO 50KT) SUGGESTS MAINTAINING CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FCST OF LOW              
POPS FOR -SN THU. FIRST SHORTWAVE HEADING E FROM THE NEW TROF JUST              
OFF THE W COAST SHOULD MAKE A RUN ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT            
LAKES SAT...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW. AT              
LEAST ONE PREDOMINANT RAIN EVENT SEEMS LIKELY DURING THE UPCOMING               
PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
MVFR CIGS AND FLURRIES SHOULD HANG ON AT KCMX THROUGH MUCH OF                   
TONIGHT WITH DECENT UPSTREAM SFC-700 MB MOISTURE AND ONSHORE WRLY               
FLOW. AS THE WIND SWINGS AROUND TO THE SW LATE TONIGHT...LAKE EFFECT            
SHOULD SHUT OFF...BUT CLOUDS WILL HANG ON THROUGH SUNDAY THERE. SW              
TO W WINDS AT KSAW SHOULD LIMIT ANY LES CHANCES. HOWEVER... THE HIGH            
MVFR CLOUD DECK WILL LINGER AS MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN                     
INVERSION PERSISTING AT 3500 FT.                                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT TONIGHT WITH A WEAK TROUGH            
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL            
FOR SOMEWHAT STRONGER WSW WINDS JUST SOUTH OF THE TROUGH AXIS.                  
OTHERWISE WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST OF THE REGION WINDS              
WILL REMAIN BLO 25 KNOTS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE IN THE             
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. A               
TIGHT NRLY GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW ON TUE              
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS. FOR NOW...LEFT IN               
WINDS TO 30 KT WHICH MAY NEED TO BE RAISED TO GALES AS CONFIDENCE IN            
THE SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD INCREASES. LOOK FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH TO             
BLO 25 KTS BY WED EVENING AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE FROM THE PLAINS                
MOVES OVER THE REGION.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JLB                                                                
LONG TERM...ROLFSON                                                             
AVIATION...GJM                                                                  
MARINE...JLB                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
314 PM EST SAT DEC 29 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT                                                   
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND               
EXTEND UP INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER            
AND ALLOW WINDS TO RELAX.                                                       
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM REMAINS CENTERED AROUND              
THE POSSIBLE BREAK-UP OF THE STRATUS DECK ENTRENCHED OVER THE                   
REGION. WESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN HAS HELPED KEEP THIS DECK               
INTACT THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z DTX SOUNDING INDICATES THE MIXED LAYER TO            
BE POTENTIALLY 5000 FEET DEEP...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS                
LAYER SHRINKING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER.               
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW THE AIRMASS REMAINING FAIRLY SATURATED             
IN THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE SOME                 
DRIER AIR IS MIXED DOWN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. MODELS LOOK TOO              
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS MIXING AS THEY ARE TOO WARM WITH SURFACE                   
TEMPERATURES AND AT LEAST 1000 FEET TOO LOW WITH THE INVERSION                  
HEIGHTS (WHERE DRIER AIR RESIDES ABOVE). THINK THE LOWER LAYERS WILL            
STAY A LITTLE MORE MOIST THAN INDICATED...FAVORING A MORE INTACT                
DECK.                                                                           
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL UPPER SHORTWAVE TRACKING UP                   
THROUGH ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. NAM AND RUC MODELS HAVE THE BEST                  
HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE...BUT LARGELY SHEAR IT OUT BEFORE IT REACHES             
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE MICHIGAN/OHIO BORDER BY 00Z. UPSTREAM                
OVER ILLINOIS...THIS FEATURE HAS HELPED CLEAR OUT MOST OF THE                   
STRATUS. HOWEVER...NOT SURE IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BREAK UP THE            
DECK OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.                                           
TAKING INTO ACCOUNT ALL THIS INFORMATION...WILL KEEP THE DECK                   
LARGELY INTACT FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. EXPECTING A FEW              
BREAKS TO APPEAR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOWEVER.               
CIRRUS SHIELD WILL EXPAND OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE             
OHIO VALLEY AS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKIES BECOMES              
MORE AMPLIFIED. HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN              
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING...THROUGH THEY               
WILL ARRIVE TOO LATE TO HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT            
LOWS WILL RUN 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW LAST NIGHT`S MILD                           
READINGS...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.                                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ON SUNDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO                  
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INDUCES COASTAL ATLANTIC CYCLOGENESIS.                 
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY FROM TODAY...AS THE                
GRADIENT TAKES ON MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AND THINNER                     
HIGH/MID CLOUDS CONTROL THE SKY CONDITION. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS                 
HINT AT SECONDARY WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE                          
APPALACHIANS... ALLOWING FOR A NARROW AREA OF LGT PCPN TO DEVELOP               
ALONG THE DEFORMATION AXIS LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHWEST OHIO                
THROUGH LAKE ERIE SUNDAY EVENING. THE VERY NORTHWEST EDGE OF THIS               
MAY CLIP EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOWER MI...AND WILL JUST INTRODUCE A                 
SLIGHT CHANCE POP THROUGH 06Z FROM MONROE TO MACOMB COUNTY FOR                  
VERY LGT SNOW SHOWERS WITH NO ACCUMS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...WILL                 
BACK OFF ON POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...AS MODEL CONSENSUS                  
REMAINS SUFFICIENT THAT IMPACTS FROM THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM                
WILL HOLD UNTIL MONDAY.                                                         
THIS SYSTEM BECOMES THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...                 
LIKELY IMPACTING MUCH OF SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN LATE ON NEW YEARS             
EVE.  SHORTWAVE MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA LATE                     
TONIGHT...WILL DROP SOUTHEAST WITHIN THE MEAN CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH...            
STRENGTHENING SLIGHTLY AND INDUCING SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES             
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/GREAT LAKES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.  IN                  
RESPONSE TO THE DIFFICULTY IN RESOLVING SUCH A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE               
BEFORE IT CAN BE PROPERLY SAMPLED...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE             
WITH THE FINER DETAILS WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE BIGGEST STRUGGLES            
INVOLVING WHERE TO PLACE THE BEST FORCING AND ASSOCIATED MAIN                   
MOISTURE AXIS.                                                                  
ALL MODELS AGREE ON TAKING THE SFC LOW FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS                 
NORTHERN/CENTRAL LOWER MI.  HOWEVER...THE NAM (WITH SUPPORT FROM                
SREF OUTPUT) MAINTAINS A MUCH MORE COMPACT SYSTEM...AND FOCUSES THE             
BULK OF THE PCPN FROM THE SAGINAW VALLEY NORTHWARD.  MEANWHILE...THE            
GFS INDICATES A MUCH BROADER SYSTEM...WITH A HIGHER AXIS OF QPF                 
(.1-.2") SOUTH OF THE SFC LOW FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE             
ZONE AND WITHIN AN AREA OF ENHANCED FORCING PROVIDED BY THE                     
SHORTWAVE.  THE ECMWF SHOWS A SIMILAR DEPICTION...ONLY WITH MUCH                
LESS QPF IN A SHORTER DURATION.  GIVEN THE POOR CONSENSUS...WILL                
GENERALLY TAKE A BLEND...ADJUSTING PCPN AMOUNTS UP SLIGHTLY ACROSS              
THE SOUTH BUT UNDERCUTTING THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SHOWN BY THE GFS.                 
THIS WILL MAKE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES                    
POSSIBLE AREAWIDE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR             
NARROW CORRIDOR OF HIGHER END AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES SOMEWHERE                  
WITHIN THE CWA.                                                                 
DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS WITH REGARD TO THE PATTERN EVOLUTION              
FOR MID-WEEK...WITH A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE                
CENTRAL TO EASTERN CONUS...WHILE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST.                
THIS AMPLIFIED FLOW WILL LIKELY BRING THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE                
SEASON SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AS COLD AIR ADVECTION                   
DEVELOPS TUESDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING NEW YEARS EVE SYSTEM...WITH A             
REINFORCING ARCTIC COLD FRONT ARRIVING BY TUESDAY NIGHT.  GREAT                 
LAKES REGION WILL LIKELY SEE JUST A GLANCING BLOW WITH THIS ARCTIC              
SURGE WITH THE BETTER DROP IN 850 MB TEMPS/THICKNESSES OCCURRING                
ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST...WITH SOME AIRMASS MODIFICATION BY THE               
UPSTREAM LAKES LIKELY UPON ARRIVAL TUES NGT/WEDNESDAY.                          
NONETHELESS...HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW/MID 20S UNDER A GUSTY NORTHWEST             
GRADIENT STILL LOOKS REASONABLE ON WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE PROJECTED                
850MB TEMPS. A WEAKENING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD AND PARTIAL CLEARING              
WILL BRING SOME ENHANCED RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL WED NGT...AND            
WILL REMAIN BELOW GUIDANCE WITH MANY LOCATIONS (OUTSIDE OF THE                  
DETROIT URBAN HEAT ISLAND) SEEING LOWS IN THE 8-12F RANGE THURSDAY              
MORNING.                                                                        
THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE                       
850 MB TEMPS/LAPSE RATES...ENHANCED VORTICITY WITHIN THE BROAD                  
CYCLONIC FLOW...AND ADDED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE PROVIDED BY THE                 
ARCTIC FRONT...WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWER                   
ACTIVITY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.  MODELS REALLY KEYING ON THE                
ARCTIC BOUNDARY FOR MORE ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT FROM 18-03Z LATE                 
TUESDAY...WITH POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMS OF 1-2 INCHES (HIGHEST NORTH).             
MODELS INSISTING ON A QUICK RECOVERY OF THE AIRMASS BACK TOWARD MORE            
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURE READINGS BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH                   
PRONOUNCED WARM AIR ADVECTION/RISING THICKNESSES DEVELOPING ON THE              
BACKSIDE OF A DEPARTING SFC HIGH.  WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN                 
AND ENSEMBLES ALL AGREE ON THIS...WILL CONTINUE TO TEMPER THE WARMUP            
SLIGHTLY THURSDAY THE COLD MORNING START AND THE TYPICAL MODEL BIAS             
FOR SCOURING OUT AN ARCTIC AIRMASS TOO QUICKLY.  ALSO...THE UPSTREAM            
UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO DAMPEN AS IT ARRIVES...THUS LESSENING THE                  
OVERALL DEPTH/STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW.  TEMPERATURES              
WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE READINGS BY FRIDAY.                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE WATERS            
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC                   
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE                   
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.                                                           
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND               
MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM              
WILL HAVE TO POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS OVER MUCH OF            
LAKE HURON FROM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 233 PM EST SAT DEC 29 2007                            
AVIATION...                                                                     
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING                     
THROUGH ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRUSH THE                
MICHIGAN/OHIO BORDER BY EARLY EVENING. WILL SEE A FEW BREAKS IN                 
THE STRATUS DECK LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER DTW AND DET AS THIS                   
FEATURE DRAWS CLOSER...BUT DECK WILL REMAIN LARGELY INTACT. MAY                 
SEE SOME MORE BREAKS DEVELOP AFTER 03Z TONIGHT AS SOUTHWEST FLOW                
BRINGS IN SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR. MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL                   
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.                               
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...                                                                   
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS          
     FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY.                    
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...HLO                                                                
LONG TERM....MR                                                                 
MARINE.......HLO                                                                
AVIATION.....HLO                                                                
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1245 PM EST SAT DEC 29 2007                                                     
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION                                                 
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
SFC LOW PRES OVER LAKE HURON LATE IN THE EVENING HAS QUICKLY EJECTED            
INTO QUEBEC. SNOW OVER THE EASTERN U.P. HAS TAPERED OFF AND LAKE                
EFFECT SNOW HAS KICKED IN ACROSS THE FAR WEST...ESPECIALLY AFTER AN             
EAST-WEST ORIENTED TROUGH DIPPED SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE KEWEENAW                  
PENINSULA. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THIS MORNING AS THE LOW               
MOVES OUT.                                                                      
500MB RUC ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW A STRONG SHORTWAVE              
OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MI WITHIN A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH THAT IS                
SITUATED ACROSS THE CONUS. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR               
THE WEATHER IN THE GREAT LAKES AREA ON SUN AND MONDAY.                          
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
TODAY AND TONIGHT...EXPECT LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN REGIONS FAVORED            
BY NW FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF                     
MUNISING. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -12C. WINDS WILL BACK WESTWARD             
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING THE LAKE EFFECT IN THE FAR               
WEST SIGNIFICANTLY. CHANGED LIKELY POPS IN IRONWOOD TO SCATTERED                
FLURRIES DUE TO THE WSW WINDS EXPECTED. DURING THE OVERNIGHT                    
HOURS...MODELS ARE INDICATING PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH A CONVERGENCE                
ZONE ORIENTED WEST TO EAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THE HI-RES LOCAL               
WRF MODEL AND ECMWF SHOW THE PCPN BAND LINED UP JUST SOUTH OF                   
HOUGHTON AND THE NAM AND RUC13 PUT IT ACROSS KEWEENAW COUNTY. THE               
MODELS ALL INDICATE THE BAND WILL LIFT NORTHWARD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT              
AS SOUTHERLY WINDS TAKE OVER. CHANGED WX GRIDS TO REFLECT THE                   
UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE THIS BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL SET UP. ALSO                  
INCREASED CLOUD COVER TONIGHT DUE TO THE HIGH RH VALUES AT LOW AND              
MID LEVELS. WITH CLOUDIER SKIES...INCREASED OVERNIGHT LOWS A LITTLE.            
SUNDAY...THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE WASHINGTON/OREGON BORDER WILL MAKE              
ITS WAY EASTWARD ALONG A WEAK 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN                  
PLAINS ON SAT NIGHT AND ARRIVE IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AREA SUNDAY             
MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO              
SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE AND/OR SNOW. FOR NOW...KEPT GOING SCHC SNOW               
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE EFFECT             
AREAS.                                                                          
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UNCERTAINTY ARISES SUN NIGHT AS              
TO WHEN TWO SHORTWAVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PHASE TOGETHER.            
THE ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN WI AND                   
POSSIBLY UPPER MI ON MON. GFS IS THE FURTHEST SOUTH OF THE SOLNS AND            
THE ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET COMPROMISE IS THE PREFERRED SOLN. WITH THIS            
UNCERTAINTY...KEPT WITH GOING FCST OF A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE               
REGION WITH HIGHER POPS IN NW LES FAVORED REGIONS. BEHIND THIS LOW              
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH COLD...NNW                 
WINDS WILL TAKE CONTROL OF THE CWA. WENT WITH FAIRLY MODERATE QPF               
(AROUND 0.06) FOR LAKE EFFECT...WHICH MAY BE A LITTLE OVERDONE...               
GIVEN LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM. WILL NEED TO TAKE A CLOSER              
LOOK AT THIS.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
MVFR CIGS AND FLURRIES SHOULD HANG ON AT KCMX THROUGH MUCH OF THE               
DAY WITH DECENT UPSTREAM SFC-700 MB MOISTURE AND ONSHORE WRLY FLOW.             
WINDS BACKING WEST AT KSAW SHOULD LIMIT ANY LES CHANCES.                        
HOWEVER...THE HIGH MVFR CLOUD DECK MAY LINGER AS MODEL FCST                     
SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INVERSION PERSISTING AT 3500 FT. FOCUSED LOW LEVEL            
CONVERGENCE FROM WEST LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE KEWEENAW ALONG A                
WEAK TROUGH SHOULD BRING AN INCREASE IN LES TONIGHT AT KCMX WITH IFR            
CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE. THE LES SHOULD END SUNDAY MORNING AS WINDS BACK             
TO SW OVER THE AREA.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
NW GRADIENT SLACKENS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AS THE SURFACE LOW                
LIFTS NE INTO QUEBEC. NW WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 20 KT OR LESS BY                
AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY WILL                
KEEP WINDS BLO 25 KNOTS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE IN                  
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY.             
A TIGHT NRLY GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW ON TUE            
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS. FOR NOW...LEFT IN               
WINDS TO 30 KT BUT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED THAT GALE FORCE GUSTS COULD            
OCCUR OVER ERN SUPERIOR. LOOK FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH TO BLO 25 KTS BY            
WED EVENING AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE FROM THE PLAINS MOVES OVER THE               
REGION.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...MRC                                                       
AVIATION...JV                                                                   
MARINE...JV                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
500 AM EST SAT DEC 29 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
SFC LOW PRES OVER LAKE HURON LATE IN THE EVENING HAS QUICKLY EJECTED            
INTO QUEBEC. SNOW OVER THE EASTERN U.P. HAS TAPERED OFF AND LAKE                
EFFECT SNOW HAS KICKED IN ACROSS THE FAR WEST...ESPECIALLY AFTER AN             
EAST-WEST ORIENTED TROUGH DIPPED SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE KEWEENAW                  
PENINSULA. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THIS MORNING AS THE LOW               
MOVES OUT.                                                                      
500MB RUC ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW A STRONG SHORTWAVE              
OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MI WITHIN A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH THAT IS                
SITUATED ACROSS THE CONUS. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR               
THE WEATHER IN THE GREAT LAKES AREA ON SUN AND MONDAY.                          
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
TODAY AND TONIGHT...EXPECT LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN REGIONS FAVORED            
BY NW FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF                     
MUNISING. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -12C. WINDS WILL BACK WESTWARD             
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING THE LAKE EFFECT IN THE FAR               
WEST SIGNIFICANTLY. CHANGED LIKELY POPS IN IRONWOOD TO SCATTERED                
FLURRIES DUE TO THE WSW WINDS EXPECTED. DURING THE OVERNIGHT                    
HOURS...MODELS ARE INDICATING PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH A CONVERGENCE                
ZONE ORIENTED WEST TO EAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THE HI-RES LOCAL               
WRF MODEL AND ECMWF SHOW THE PCPN BAND LINED UP JUST SOUTH OF HOUGHTON          
AND THE NAM AND RUC13 PUT IT ACROSS KEWEENAW COUNTY. THE MODELS ALL             
INDICATE THE BAND WILL LIFT NORTHWARD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY            
WINDS TAKE OVER. CHANGED WX GRIDS TO REFLECT THE UNCERTAINTY OF                 
WHERE THIS BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL SET UP. ALSO INCREASED CLOUD                 
COVER TONIGHT DUE TO THE HIGH RH VALUES AT LOW AND MID LEVELS. WITH             
CLOUDIER SKIES...INCREASED OVERNIGHT LOWS A LITTLE.                             
SUNDAY...THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE WASHINGTON/OREGON BORDER WILL MAKE ITS WAY      
EASTWARD ALONG A WEAK 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SAT            
NIGHT AND ARRIVE IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AREA SUNDAY MORNING.                  
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME                  
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND/OR SNOW. FOR NOW...KEPT GOING SCHC SNOW ACROSS             
THE REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE EFFECT AREAS.             
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UNCERTAINTY ARISES SUN NIGHT AS              
TO WHEN TWO SHORTWAVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PHASE TOGETHER.            
THE ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN WI AND                   
POSSIBLY UPPER MI ON MON. GFS IS THE FURTHEST SOUTH OF THE SOLNS AND            
THE ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET COMPROMISE IS THE PREFERRED SOLN. WITH THIS            
UNCERTAINTY...KEPT WITH GOING FCST OF A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE               
REGION WITH HIGHER POPS IN NW LES FAVORED REGIONS. BEHIND THIS LOW              
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH COLD...NNW                 
WINDS WILL TAKE CONTROL OF THE CWA. WENT WITH FAIRLY MODERATE QPF               
(AROUND 0.06) FOR LAKE EFFECT...WHICH MAY BE A LITTLE OVERDONE...               
GIVEN LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM. WILL NEED TO TAKE A CLOSER              
LOOK AT THIS.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT BOTH SITES WITH MOSTLY MVFR                     
CONDITIONS NOW AS THE SNOW PULLS OUT. WINDS ARE MORE NW NOW...SO                
UPSLOPE BECOMES LESS OF AN ISSUE AND DO NOT THINK IFR/LIFR WILL                 
HAPPEN THAT LONG AT BOTH SITES TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. CONDITIONS               
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AFTER 12Z SAT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM                   
PRODUCING THE SNOW SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA AND DRIER AIR STARTS TO              
MOVE IN.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
NW GRADIENT SLACKENS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AS THE SURFACE LOW                
LIFTS NE INTO QUEBEC. NW WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 20 KT OR LESS BY                
AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY WILL                
KEEP WINDS BLO 25 KNOTS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE IN                  
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY.             
A TIGHT NRLY GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW ON TUE            
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS. FOR NOW...LEFT IN               
WINDS TO 30 KT BUT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED THAT GALE FORCE GUSTS COULD            
OCCUR OVER ERN SUPERIOR. LOOK FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH TO BLO 25 KTS BY            
WED EVENING AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE FROM THE PLAINS MOVES OVER THE               
REGION.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...MRC                                                       
AVIATION...GM                                                                   
MARINE...JV                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
634 PM EST FRI DEC 28 2007                                                      
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION                                                 
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...                                           
WV LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NEGATIVE TILTED SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO            
SOUTHERN LK MICHIGAN. 250MB JET CORE OVR IL INTO LWR MI SO SHORTWAVE            
SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO LWR MI INSTEAD OF COME ANY FURTHER TO              
THE NORTH. SFC REFLECTION WITH THE WAVE IS LOW PRESSURE NEAR 1010MB             
IN THE VCNTY OF CHICAGO. UPR LEVEL FEATURES AND DEEP MOISTURE INFLOW            
ARE MAIN INSTIGATORS FOR BROAD SWATH OF SNOW FM EASTERN WI TO SOUTH             
CENTRAL UPR MI AND INTO WESTERN LWR MI. THUS FAR HEAVIEST SNOW WITH             
RATES OF 1-2"/HR ARE ALLIGNED FM CNTRL LK MI INTO NRN LWR MI. AS H85            
LOW PASSES FM NORTHERN IL INTO NE LWR MI BY THIS EVENING AXIS OF                
HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD MISS THE CWA. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL                  
AFFECT THE CWA...WITH THE HEAVIEST FALLING CLOSEST TO THE TRACK OF              
H85 LOW...BASICALLY ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.                          
ENE WINDS FLOWING OFF NORTHERN LK MICHIGAN AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND               
-10C MAY SETUP LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF                     
MENOMINEE AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF DELTA THIS EVENING. WINDS BACK              
QUICKLY TO THE NORTH BY LATE EVENING SO ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS              
TO 6" ARE POSSIBLE ELECT TO NOT UPGRADE TO A WARNING SINCE MOST OF              
THE AREA WILL ONLY SEE ADVY LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS.                                 
MEANWHILE...LARGE SCALE LIFT AND ADEQUATE OVER WATER INSTABILITY                
COULD PRODUCE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT.                  
INITIALLY...NORTHERN PORTIONS OF KEWEENAW ARE FAVORED AS WINDS                  
THROUGH H85 ARE FM THE ENE. HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTH CENTRAL AND                 
WESTERN CWA BECOMES MORE INVOLVED BY LATE EVENING AS WINDS BACK NNE             
ALONG DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH EXTENDING WESTWARD FM THE LOW PRESSURE              
OVER LWR MI. H95 CONVERGENCE STRENGTHENING ALONG THE TROUGH FM                  
03Z-09Z AND H85 COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH TEMPS LOWERING TO -12C                  
SUPPORTS AN ADDITIONAL 1-2" SNOW ADDED ONTO THE SYNOPTIC TOTALS FM              
THE SYSTEM.                                                                     
AS FAR AS OUR GOING HEADLINES ARE CONCERNED...SEE NO NEED TO CHANGE             
THEM ATTM. HEAVIST SYNOPTIC SNOW IS JUST GOING TO GRAZE LK MICHIGAN             
ZONES SO THE ADVY LOOKS FINE FOR THOSE AREAS AND ANY ENHANCEMENT OFF            
LK SUPERIOR WILL BE LOCALIZED AND FAIRLY BRIEF. LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS             
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NEAR LK SUPERIOR...ALTHOUGH DRY AIR               
SHOWING UP BLO H9 IN SOUNDINGS AND MINIMAL LIFT IN THE CLOUD LAYER              
WILL LIMIT ADDITIONAL ACCUMS.                                                   
.LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT THRU FRI)...                                              
SAT NIGHT...850MB TEMPS OF -12 TO -13C WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME              
LES. INTERESTING ASPECT WILL BE THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS.                      
GFS/NAM/REGIONAL CANADIAN ALL SHOW A CONVERGENCE ZONE SETTING UP W              
TO E OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...INITIALLY EXTENDING ACROSS THE KEWEENAW IN            
THE EVENING. GFS AND REGIONAL CANADIAN SHOW THIS ZONE SHIFTING N                
DURING THE NIGHT WHILE THE NAM LINGERS IT ACROSS THE NRN PART OF THE            
KEWEENAW. SINCE THE CANADIAN MODEL TYPICALLY DOES WELL WITH WINDS               
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND IT IS SUPPORTED BY THE GFS AND UKMET AS                  
WELL...WILL DISREGARD THE NAM SOLUTION. WITH DEEP MOISTURE UPWARDS              
OF 7KFT...THERE COULD BE A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE                
KEWEENAW BEFORE CONVERGENCE ZONE SHIFTS N. WILL ALSO INCLUDE CHC                
POPS E OF MUNISING IN THE EVENING BEFORE WINDS BACK SW. ELSEWHERE...            
EXPECT DRY WEATHER SAT NIGHT.                                                   
SUN/MON...TROF OVER THE CNTRL CONUS WILL BEGIN TO SHARPEN DUE TO                
UPSTREAM RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE W COAST. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES               
WILL AFFECT THE UPPER LAKES...BUT NOTHING APPEARS WELL DEFINED AT               
THE MOMENT. WITH THE LACK OF FOCUSED FORCING...PCPN SHOULD GENERALLY            
BE ON LIGHT SIDE WHEN IT OCCURS. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS                
SUN/MON DUE TO UNCERTAIN TIMING OF SHORTWAVES...BUT WILL UP POPS                
SOME ON MON DUE TO REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON SFC LOW AND STRONGER                 
SHORTWAVE IN THE VCNTY AT THAT TIME. IF WINDS TAKE ON ENOUGH SRLY               
COMPONENT AHEAD OF LOW...SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN              
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR ERN FCST AREA SUN/MON. HAVE GENERALLY             
CARRIED HIGHEST POPS IN THAT AREA TO COVER THE POTENTIAL.                       
TUE THRU FRI...THE BEGINNING OF A BIG SWING IN THE PATTERN IS                   
EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD AS CNTRL/ERN CONUS TROF SHIFTS TO THE               
WRN ATLANTIC AND RIDGE ALONG THE W COAST BROADENS AND SHIFTS EWD.               
DESPITE WELL OUT INTO THE MODEL RUNS...THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE SHOWN VERY            
GOOD CONTINUITY ON THIS CHANGE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...                    
SUGGESTING A STRONG SIGNAL IS THERE. NEAR/SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS             
TUE/WED ASSOCIATED WITH TROF WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL BY FRI WITH                
WARMING ONLY STRENGTHENING BEYOND THIS FCST PERIOD THRU NEXT                    
WEEKEND. GIVEN VERY LOW SUN ANGLE THIS TIME OF YEAR...WARMING THAT              
OCCURS ALOFT WILL CERTAINLY NOT BE COMPLETELY REALIZED AT THE                   
SFC...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE WARMING TREND WHICH COVERS THIS PERIOD            
OF THE FCST. BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE ON MIN TEMPS WHICH WILL HAVE                
INCREASINGLY GREATER DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL THAN HIGH TEMPS AS THE              
WARMING TREND LENGTHENS. AS FOR PCPN...EXPECT DECENT LES TUE INTO               
EARLY WED... ESPECIALLY TUE AS GFS/ECMWF SHOW A SHORTWAVE DROPPING              
THRU THE AREA. COULD SEE A PERIOD OF HVY SNOW AS THAT SHORTWAVE                 
PASSES. WIND FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE NW THOUGH IT SHOULD GO NRLY FOR             
A TIME WITH TUE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE...SO ALL AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR             
WILL GET IN ON ACCUMULATING LES. LES WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN WED AND            
SHOULD END WED NIGHT FROM W TO E AS SFC RIDGE PASSES AND WAA GETS               
UNDERWAY. THERE MAY BE SOME -SN THU/FRI DURING STRONG WAA. OPTED TO             
MAINTAIN PREVIOUS FCST OF LOW POPS ON THU FOR THIS POTENTIAL.                   
CARRIED A DRY FCST FOR FRI...BUT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF LOW POPS              
NEED TO BE ADDED IN LATER FCSTS AS WAA IS STILL STRONG.                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT BOTH SITES WITH MOSTLY MVFR                     
CONDITIONS NOW AS THE SNOW PULLS OUT. WINDS ARE MORE NW NOW...SO                
UPSLOPE BECOMES LESS OF AN ISSUE AND DO NOT THINK IFR/LIFR WILL                 
HAPPEN THAT LONG AT BOTH SITES TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. CONDITIONS               
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AFTER 12Z SAT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM                   
PRODUCING THE SNOW SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA AND DRIER AIR STARTS TO              
MOVE IN.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
NE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS LOWER                
MICHIGAN AND GEORGIAN BAY. IN GENERAL...NE WINDS TO 25 KT CAN BE                
EXPECTED WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS...MOSTLY OVER SOUTHERN                    
SECTIONS CLOSER TO THE TIGHTER GRADIENT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL                
LEAD TO WINDS BLO 25 KNOTS INTO SUN. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKING               
SHAPE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON            
MONDAY. NORTH TO NORTHWEST GALES REMAIN POSSIBLE BY TUE AS THE                  
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND STRONG HIGH                  
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS.                                              
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
 SNOW ADVISORY THIS EVENING MIZ012-013-014.                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JLA                                                                
LONG TERM...ROLFSON                                                             
AVIATION...GJM                                                                  
MARINE...JLA                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1141 AM CST SUN DEC 30 2007                                                     
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 400 AM CST SUN DEC 30 2007/                               
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IN PROGRESS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CWA                
WITH LOWER DEW POINT AIR AND DISSIPATING STATUS TO OUR SOUTHWEST.               
FORECAST THROUGH NEW YEARS DAY REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME BUT THE                   
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW JUST DON`T LOOK THAT GOOD UNTIL MONDAY                   
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. CURRENTLY A VORT MAX IS LOCATED SOUTH OF LAKE                
WINNIPEG AND MOVING EASTWARD. SHORT WAVE TRAILING SOUTHWARD WILL                
MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXTENSIVE MID                   
LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE DAKOTAS AND              
FAR WESTERN MN ATTM AND SHOULD PREVENT A DISASTER IN THE CLOUD                  
COVER IF THE STATUS CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. RUC13                  
INSISTENT THAT THE STRATUS COULD BE OUT OF HERE BY NOON. BEST                   
LAYER MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS POISED TO                
PASS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND                 
EVENING. KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS IN THESE AREAS AND WENT DRY                       
ELSEWHERE. KEPT THIS IDEA ALIVE THIS EVENING THEN INCREASED TO                  
SMALL CHANCE POPS OVER ALL OF THE CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.               
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT ON KEEPING SEPARATE IDENTITIES TO LOW                  
PRESSURE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN AND ONE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AS                 
THEY PASS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. COUPLING OF THE TWO LOWS              
NOW INDICATED TO OCCUR A LITTLE FURTHER EAST AND OVER THE LOWER                 
GREAT LAKES. FOR US...BEST CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW APPEAR TO                
BE MONDAY NIGHT WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR NEW                
YEARS DAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE STILL ON TRACK TO BE OVERHEAD ON                
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. COLD SPELL TO BE                
SHORT LIVED AS HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE SIGNIFICANTLY IN RESPONSE TO A                
DEEPENING EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC TROF. WARMING TREND PROGGED TO                  
BEGIN THURSDAY AND PERHAPS LAST INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.                      
TEMPERATURES TRENDING WELL ABOVE NORMAL HEADING INTO NEXT                       
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN STAY AWAY FROM THE STRATUS.                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
TRICKY FORECAST THIS PERIOD. CURRENT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS OVER                   
EASTERN PARTS OF AREA INCLUDING KMSP/KRNH/KSTC/KEAU WILL CONTINUE               
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH THE SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW.                   
FARTHER WEST WHERE STRATUS BROKE OUT...WILL BE A LITTLE MORE                    
PROBLEMATIC. VSBYS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE 3 TO 5 SM RANGE BUT                  
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF STATUS BUILDING BACK TO THE WEST.                       
OTHERWISE SOME IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN THE WEST...IN TERMS OF                   
VSBY...MAY BE REALIZED LATE IN THE PERIOD...MONDAY MORNING AS                   
TROUGH AND COOL FRONT APPROACH. WEAK UPPER TROUGH WITH SOME MID                 
LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE                   
EVENING WITH ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS. CHANCES OF THESE SHOWERS                    
AFFECTING THE TERMINAL SITES SLIM...BUT MOST LIKELY AREAS WOULD BE              
KSTC.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RAH/JPR                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
523 AM CST SUN DEC 30 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW                                     
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 400 AM CST SUN DEC 30 2007/                               
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IN PROGRESS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CWA                
WITH LOWER DEW POINT AIR AND DISSIPATING STATUS TO OUR SOUTHWEST.               
FORECAST THROUGH NEW YEARS DAY REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME BUT THE                   
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW JUST DON`T LOOK THAT GOOD UNTIL MONDAY                   
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. CURRENTLY A VORT MAX IS LOCATED SOUTH OF LAKE                
WINNIPEG AND MOVING EASTWARD. SHORT WAVE TRAILING SOUTHWARD WILL                
MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXTENSIVE MID                   
LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE DAKOTAS AND              
FAR WESTERN MN ATTM AND SHOULD PREVENT A DISASTER IN THE CLOUD                  
COVER IF THE STATUS CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. RUC13                  
INSISTENT THAT THE STRATUS COULD BE OUT OF HERE BY NOON. BEST LAYER             
MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS POISED TO PASS                 
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND                      
EVENING. KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS IN THESE AREAS AND WENT DRY                       
ELSEWHERE. KEPT THIS IDEA ALIVE THIS EVENING THEN INCREASED TO                  
SMALL CHANCE POPS OVER ALL OF THE CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.               
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT ON KEEPING SEPARATE IDENTITIES TO LOW                  
PRESSURE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN AND ONE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AS                 
THEY PASS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. COUPLING OF THE TWO LOWS              
NOW INDICATED TO OCCUR A LITTLE FURTHER EAST AND OVER THE LOWER                 
GREAT LAKES. FOR US...BEST CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW APPEAR TO                
BE MONDAY NIGHT WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR NEW                
YEARS DAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE STILL ON TRACK TO BE OVERHEAD ON                
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. COLD SPELL TO BE                
SHORT LIVED AS HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE SIGNIFICANTLY IN RESPONSE TO A                
DEEPENING EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC TROF. WARMING TREND PROGGED TO BEGIN            
THURSDAY AND PERHAPS LAST INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES               
TRENDING WELL ABOVE NORMAL HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY               
IF WE CAN STAY AWAY FROM THE STRATUS.                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
CEILINGS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN THIS MORNING...WITH         
VFR CEILINGS /CIRCA 10K FEET/ AT KAXN/KRWF AT 12Z. LOW LEVEL RH                 
PROGS INDICATE THAT HIGHER CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE WORKING INTO                  
CENTRAL MN THIS MORNING...SO HAVE INCLUDED A PERIOD OF BKN MVFR OR              
VFR AT KMSP AND KSTC. MVFR VISIBIILITIES SHOULD ALSO IMPROVE TO                 
VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING. SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE                
TODAY...MAINLY AT KSTC/KRNH/KEAU. SNOW CHANCES INCREASE TONIGHT                 
INTO MONDAY...AS A DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTH/EAST FROM CANADA.                    
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DEGRADE BACK INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY TONIGHT.               
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RAH/LS                                                                          
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
400 AM CST SUN DEC 30 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IN PROGRESS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CWA                
WITH LOWER DEW POINT AIR AND DISSIPATING STATUS TO OUR SOUTHWEST.               
FORECAST THROUGH NEW YEARS DAY REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME BUT THE                   
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW JUST DON`T LOOK THAT GOOD UNTIL MONDAY                   
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. CURRENTLY A VORT MAX IS LOCATED SOUTH OF LAKE                
WINNIPEG AND MOVING EASTWARD. SHORT WAVE TRAILING SOUTHWARD WILL                
MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXTENSIVE MID                   
LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE DAKOTAS AND              
FAR WESTERN MN ATTM AND SHOULD PREVENT A DISASTER IN THE CLOUD                  
COVER IF THE STATUS CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. RUC13                  
INSISTENT THAT THE STRATUS COULD BE OUT OF HERE BY NOON. BEST LAYER             
MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS POISED TO PASS                 
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND                      
EVENING. KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS IN THESE AREAS AND WENT DRY                       
ELSEWHERE. KEPT THIS IDEA ALIVE THIS EVENING THEN INCREASED TO                  
SMALL CHANCE POPS OVER ALL OF THE CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.               
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT ON KEEPING SEPARATE IDENTITIES TO LOW                  
PRESSURE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN AND ONE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AS                 
THEY PASS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. COUPLING OF THE TWO LOWS              
NOW INDICATED TO OCCUR A LITTLE FURTHER EAST AND OVER THE LOWER                 
GREAT LAKES. FOR US...BEST CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW APPEAR TO                
BE MONDAY NIGHT WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR NEW                
YEARS DAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE STILL ON TRACK TO BE OVERHEAD ON                
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. COLD SPELL TO BE                
SHORT LIVED AS HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE SIGNIFICANTLY IN RESPONSE TO A                
DEEPENING EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC TROF. WARMING TREND PROGGED TO BEGIN            
THURSDAY AND PERHAPS LAST INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES               
TRENDING WELL ABOVE NORMAL HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY               
IF WE CAN STAY AWAY FROM THE STRATUS.                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
MID CLDS MVG ACRS LWR CLD DECK IN W MN HV KEPT CIGS AND VSBYS FM                
TANKING. CONCERN MAINLY AT RWF IS THAT AS CLDS THIN THAT LOW STRATUS            
AND FOG WL QUICKLY DVLP. WITH LOW LVL FLOW STILL WEAK AND WAA GRADU             
STRENGTHENING INVERSON THRU TMRW WILL BE TUF TO BRK UP CLDS. WL                 
INTRO BRKS ONLY AT RWF AND AXN.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RAH/BAP                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
322 AM CST SUN DEC 30 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY                                              
DESPITE NO MAJOR STORMS..THE FORECAST IS RATHER COMPLICATED                     
FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS OF THIS CYCLE WITH SEVERAL LOW-                 
AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES TO AFFECT THE DLH CWA.                                   
FIRST ITEM OF CONCERN IS THE WNW-ESE ORIENTED BAND OF LIGHT SNOW                
THAT HAS BEEN SLOWLY TRANSLATING NEWD ACROSS NE MN AND WRN LK                   
SUPERIOR FOR THE LAST 18 HOURS. RADAR RETURNS FROM KDLH HAVE                    
DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT IN THE PAST HOUR..BUT STRONGLY SUSPECT THAT                 
THIS IS DUE TO SAMPLING CONSIDERATIONS AS THE FORCING FOR THIS                  
BAND OF SNOW APPEARS TO BE TIED TO WARM ADVECTION AND                           
FRONTOGENESIS IN A RATHER SHALLOW LAYER WITHIN ABOUT 6 KFT AGL. AS              
THE BAND CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD..THE BEAM IS LIKELY OVERSHOOTING                
MOST OF THE ECHOES. THE NAM/RUC SEEM TO PICK UP ON THIS MESOSCALE               
FEATURE RATHER WELL IN THE MASS FIELDS..AND BOTH LINGER DECENT                  
FORCING OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD THRU ABOUT MIDDAY..SO HAVE KEPT                   
LIKELY POPS FOR UP TO AN INCH OR SO OF ACCUM IN THIS AREA. NORTH                
SHORE TERRAIN RIDGE WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF SE FLOW THIS               
AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH MAY ACT TO LOCALLY ENHANCE SNOW IN FAVORED              
AREAS.                                                                          
NEXT ISSUE IS THE COMPACT VORT MAX CLEARLY EVIDENT IN WV SAT                    
IMAGERY OVER FAR NE ND. THIS VORT MAX IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE EWD               
TODAY/TONIGHT ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER..AND EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO               
CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE /PER CURRENT OBS FROM KMVX RADAR/                
ACROSS NRN MN AS THIS IMPULSE INTERACTS WITH NWD RETREATING                     
BAROCLINIC ZONE. ALL SAID..AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW APPEARS POSSIBLE              
BY MONDAY MORNING.                                                              
FINALLY..STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL DROP SEWD FROM               
MANITOBA ON MONDAY..AND SHUD SPREAD ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW                 
ACROSS MUCH OF NRN MN AND NW WI BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE                
ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS TO REFLECT A SMALLER DROP                   
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS CLOUDS PERSIST..WITH WINDS FINALLY SHIFTING                
TO THE W/NW OUT WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON WHICH SHUD ALLOW SOME COLDER              
AIR TO FILTER IN. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING                   
DRIZZLE ACROSS SRN SECTIONS OF THE DLH CWA..BUT CONFIDENCE IN                   
MEASURABLE PRECIP IN THIS AREA IS VERY LOW ATTM..SO HAVE CONFINED               
BEST POPS/QPF/SNOW ACCUMS ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE CWA THRU                    
TOMORROW.                                                                       
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY                                      
GOOD MODEL AGMT ON STRONG UPR LVL S/WV TROF SWINGING ACRS MN/WI MON             
NGT/TUE. SPEED OF SYSTEM AND LACK OF MSTR WILL LIMIT ACCUMS. NW                 
WINDS ON BACK SIDE OF SFC SYSTEM WILL SET UP LES REGIME ALG S SHORE             
SNOW BELT FOR TUE/WED. ACCUMS MAY REACH ADVY CRITERIA. DRY PERIOD               
SETS UP FOR THU/FRI AS SFC RIDGE MOVES ACRS THE REGION. SLY WINDS ON            
BACK SIDE OF RIDGE WILL BRING WAA/ISENT LIFT AND GRADUALLY MOISTEN              
THE AIRMASS OVR THE REGION. WITH APPROACH OF S/WV IN SWLY FLOW                  
ALOFT...EXPECT PRECIP BY EARLY SAT. WITH STRONG 850 MB WAA...MIXED              
PRECIP SEEMS LIKELY WITH SOME FZ PRECIP PSBL DEPENDING ON HOW FAST              
SFC TEMPS INCRS. FOR NOW WILL STAY WITH A RA/SN MIX.                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
EXTENSIVE IFR/MVFR CLD DECK WILL PERSIST THRU TAF PF DUE TO MSTR                
TRAPPED BLO LOLVL TEMP INVERSION. OCNL -SN OR FLURRIES WILL CONT                
ASSOC WITH WEAK LOLVL CONVERGENCE. ISOLD -FZDZ ALSO PSBL THRU THE               
MRNG HRS. VSBYS SHUD BE VFR EXCEPT OCNLY MVFR IN -SN.                           
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  22  19  20   4 /  30  40  40  40                                           
INL  21  14  19   0 /  40  40  40  30                                           
BRD  23  14  19   4 /  20  30  30  30                                           
HYR  23  20  25   5 /  20  30  40  40                                           
ASX  24  21  28  10 /  30  40  40  50                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
 MILLER/04                                                                      
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                            
430 AM CST SUN DEC 30 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
H500 LONGWAVE TROF WILL DOMINATE THE CONUS UNTIL MONDAY WHEN IT                 
WILL THEN PROPAGATE TO THE ERN CONUS BY TUESDAY...PLACING THE FA                
IN NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW. A H500 LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL THEN COME TO                 
DOMINATE THE CONUS DURING MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS WILL OVERALL                   
SIGNAL AN END TO THE RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN THAT WE HAVE                         
EXPERIENCED LATELY...WITH THE RESULT BEING SYSTEMS BEING SPACED                 
MORE APART FROM EACH OTHER. HOWEVER THRU MONDAY...LOOK FOR SEVERAL              
SYSTEMS TO IMPACT THE AREA...OR AT LEAST ATTEMPT TO.                            
SYSTEM NUMBER ONE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF JUST W OF THE FA ATTM                
AND WILL PUSH THRU THE AREA TODAY. SYSTEM OVERALL IS MOISTURE                   
LACKING...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS. MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS                 
WILL BE A DECK OF MID CLOUDS THAT WILL PUSH OFF TO THE E THIS                   
MORNING WITH NO PCPN EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH A STRAY FLURRY OR TWO IS               
NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR AREAS S AND E OF KSTL EARLY                 
THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT MILDER THAN                     
YESTERDAY...AND DID NOT HAVE A PROBLEM WITH MOS TEMPS...ALTHOUGH                
TRIMMED A DEG OR TWO IN THE NWRN FA FOR SNOW PACK THAT STILL                    
EXISTS THERE.                                                                   
SYSTEM NUMBER TWO IS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROF THAT WILL SWING THRU                
THE NRN FA AT FIRST LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...BUT THEN                  
DROP SEWD THRU THE FA DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ON MONDAY.                
THIS WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG SFC CDFNT. LIKE SYSTEM                
NUMBER ONE...THIS ONE WILL ALSO BE RATHER MOISTURE CHALLENGED WITH              
PWATS COMPARABLE TO THE OTHER SYSTEM OF JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE                     
SEASONAL NORMALS. FORCING WILL BE STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM                     
HOWEVER...AND IS STILL WORTHY OF A LOW CHANCE POP AT THIS TIME.                 
CONFINED THE BETTER PCPN PROBS TO THE NRN FA WHERE THE DEEPER                   
MOISTURE WILL BE AND LESS LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. REDUCED              
POPS ELSEWHERE TO SLIGHT CHANCE...BUT ALSO HAVE SPRINKLES/FLURRIES              
IN AS WELL TO ACCOUNT FOR VERY LIGHT PCPN POTENTIAL WHICH IS MORE               
LIKELY OUTCOME AT THIS TIME.                                                    
WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW AND ADDITIONAL WEAKER DISTURBANCES MOVING               
SEWD THRU THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND NEW YEARS DAY...HAVE                     
MAINTAINED FLURRIES FOR THESE PERIODS.                                          
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO BE USHERED IN LATE IN THE DAY ON                  
MONDAY AND CONTINUE THRU NEW YEARS DAY...WITH BLUSTERY CONDITIONS               
EXPECTED WITH WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH. THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR                
OF THE SEASON...AS A 1045MB HI PRES SETTLES INTO THE AREA...WITH                
SINGLE DIGIT LOWS LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR A DECENT PORTION              
OF THE AREA. THIS HI PRES WILL THEN DOMINATE THE AREA THRU LATE                 
WEEK WITH DRY WX...ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL MODERATE HEADING INTO THE                
WEEKEND.                                                                        
TES                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...LTL AVIATION CONCERNS THIS FCST PD...WITH VFR                
CONDITIONS AND NO PCPN EXPECTED. LATEST SATELLITE LOOP DOES SHOW A              
LARGE AREA OF LOW LVL CLOUDS OVR ERN KS BUT IT ARS THAT THIS CLOUD              
CVR WILL LIKELY REMAIN NW OF THE TAF SITES AND MAY GRADUALLY                    
DISSIPATE AS IT GETS FURTHER E INTO NWRN MO. WITH APPROACH OF SWLY              
FLOW SHRTWV TROF SHOULD SEE AN INCRS IN MID LVL CLOUDS LT                       
TGT...ESPECIALLY IN STL/SUS. LATEST RUC ANLYS OF RH HAS A BAND OF               
MOISTURE AT 700MB AND 5000 MB EXTDG NE TO THE STL AREA BY 09Z SUN.              
MDL TIME SECTIONS FOR STL SHOW 80-90 PERCENT RH VALUES FM 06Z TO                
12Z SUN ARND THE 500 MB LVL. ON SUN THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LOW LVL                 
MOISTURE FOR SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH A MID-HI LVL CLOUD                 
CEILING CONTG OVR MUCH OF THE CWA. LGT S-SELY SFC WNDS CAN BE                   
EXPECTED LT TGT ON THE WEST SIDE OF SFC RDG PUSHING E OF THE CWA.               
S-SELY SFC WNDS SUN MRNG WILL BCM SWLY SUN AFTN INCRSG TO 8-10                  
KTS.                                                                            
GKS                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WFO LSX                                                                         
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                            
1108 PM CST SAT DEC 29 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
FORECAST UPDATED FOR TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER TONIGHT. SATELLITE              
TRENDS AND MODEL PROGS SUGGEST THAT SERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL                   
BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES FELL QUICKLY EARLY IN THE                    
EVENING TO NEAR FORECAST LOWS...BUT HAVE STEADIED OR ROSE A FEW                 
DEGREES IN SOME AREAS. THINK THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE..                
ESPEICALLY WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT.                           
BRITT                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SFC RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY...SO                   
BEGINNING TO SEE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS RETURN OVER WESTERN MISSOURI.              
CLOUDS CLEARED OUT QUICKLY TODAY...GIVING WAY TO LOTS OF SUNSHINE.              
THIS HELPED TEMPS WARM UP INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S...DESPITE THE             
SNOW COVER OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA.                                  
FOR TONIGHT...THE SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE FURTHER AWAY AS NEXT UPPER                
LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY               
MORNING. HOWEVER...LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAKE PASSAGE OF              
THE SHORTWAVE A DRY ONE...THOUGH WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID AND                
HIGH CLOUDS...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.                                             
DESPITE SOME WEAK CAA WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...MILD CONDITIONS WILL                
PREVAIL OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S              
NORTH TO UPPER 40S SOUTH.                                                       
HOWEVER...NEXT SHORTWAVE TO APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS            
A MUCH MORE ROBUST THAN PREVIOUS SYSTEM. STRONGEST ENERGY TO REMAIN             
JUST NORTH OF CWA...SO WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE MENTION FOR FAR EASTERN             
SECTIONS OF CWA...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WITH             
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR REST OF CWA.  WILL SEE A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN            
ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR...WITH ALL SNOW FURTHER NORTH AND RAIN TO               
THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...THEN CHANGE TO ALL SNOW/                   
FLURRIES FOR NEW YEARS EVE.                                                     
FOR NEW YEARS DAY...WILL SEE LINGERING FLURRY ACTIVITY UNDER PARTLY             
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE             
LOW 20S FAR NORTH TO AROUND 30 FAR SOUTH AS DEEP RIDGE OF HIGH                  
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE ONE OF THE               
COLDEST SO FAR THIS SEASON WITH LOWS AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE FAR                 
NORTH TO AROUND 14 DEGREES FAR SOUTH.                                           
BEYOND THAT SFC RIDGE TO SLOWLY SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH A             
GRADUAL WARM UP TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND. NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA            
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.                                                 
BYRD                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...LTL AVIATION CONCERNS THIS FCST PD...WITH VFR                
CONDITIONS AND NO PCPN EXPECTED. LATEST SATELLITE LOOP DOES SHOW A              
LARGE AREA OF LOW LVL CLOUDS OVR ERN KS BUT IT ARS THAT THIS CLOUD              
CVR WILL LIKELY REMAIN NW OF THE TAF SITES AND MAY GRADUALLY                    
DISSIPATE AS IT GETS FURTHER E INTO NWRN MO. WITH APPROACH OF SWLY              
FLOW SHRTWV TROF SHOULD SEE AN INCRS IN MID LVL CLOUDS LT                       
TGT...ESPECIALLY IN STL/SUS. LATEST RUC ANLYS OF RH HAS A BAND OF               
MOISTURE AT 700MB AND 5000 MB EXTDG NE TO THE STL AREA BY 09Z SUN.              
MDL TIME SECTIONS FOR STL SHOW 80-90 PERCENT RH VALUES FM 06Z TO                
12Z SUN ARND THE 500 MB LVL. ON SUN THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LOW LVL                 
MOISTURE FOR SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH A MID-HI LVL CLOUD                 
CEILING CONTG OVR MUCH OF THE CWA. LGT S-SELY SFC WNDS CAN BE                   
EXPECTED LT TGT ON THE WEST SIDE OF SFC RDG PUSHING E OF THE CWA.               
S-SELY SFC WNDS SUN MRNG WILL BCM SWLY SUN AFTN INCRSG TO 8-10                  
KTS.                                                                            
GKS                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WFO LSX                                                                         
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                            
507 PM CST SAT DEC 29 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SFC RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY...SO                   
BEGINNING TO SEE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS RETURN OVER WESTERN MISSOURI.              
CLOUDS CLEARED OUT QUICKLY TODAY...GIVING WAY TO LOTS OF SUNSHINE.              
THIS HELPED TEMPS WARM UP INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S...DESPITE THE             
SNOW COVER OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA.                                  
FOR TONIGHT...THE SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE FURTHER AWAY AS NEXT UPPER                
LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY               
MORNING. HOWEVER...LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAKE PASSAGE OF              
THE SHORTWAVE A DRY ONE...THOUGH WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID AND                
HIGH CLOUDS...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.                                             
DESPITE SOME WEAK CAA WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...MILD CONDITIONS WILL                
PREVAIL OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S              
NORTH TO UPPER 40S SOUTH.                                                       
HOWEVER...NEXT SHORTWAVE TO APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS            
A MUCH MORE ROBUST THAN PREVIOUS SYSTEM. STRONGEST ENERGY TO REMAIN             
JUST NORTH OF CWA...SO WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE MENTION FOR FAR EASTERN             
SECTIONS OF CWA...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WITH             
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR REST OF CWA.  WILL SEE A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN            
ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR...WITH ALL SNOW FURTHER NORTH AND RAIN TO               
THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...THEN CHANGE TO ALL SNOW/                   
FLURRIES FOR NEW YEARS EVE.                                                     
FOR NEW YEARS DAY...WILL SEE LINGERING FLURRY ACTIVITY UNDER PARTLY             
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE             
LOW 20S FAR NORTH TO AROUND 30 FAR SOUTH AS DEEP RIDGE OF HIGH                  
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE ONE OF THE               
COLDEST SO FAR THIS SEASON WITH LOWS AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE FAR                 
NORTH TO AROUND 14 DEGREES FAR SOUTH.                                           
BEYOND THAT SFC RIDGE TO SLOWLY SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH A             
GRADUAL WARM UP TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND. NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA            
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.                                                 
BYRD                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...LTL AVIATION CONCERNS THIS FCST PD...WITH VFR                
CONDITIONS AND NO PCPN EXPECTED. WITH APPROACH OF SWLY FLOW SHRTWV              
TROF SHOULD SEE AN INCRS IN MID LVL CLOUDS LT TGT...ESPECIALLY IN               
STL/SUS. LATEST RUC ANLYS OF RH HAS A BAND OF MOISTURE AT 700MB AND             
5000 MB EXTDG NE TO THE STL AREA BY 09Z SUN. MDL TIME SECTIONS                  
FOR STL SHOW 80-90 PERCENT RH VALUES FM 06Z TO 12Z SUN ARND THE                 
500 MB LVL. ON SUN THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LOW LVL MOISTURE FOR SCT                 
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH A MID-HI LVL CLOUD CEILING CONTG OVR                
MUCH OF THE CWA. LGT S-SELY SFC WNDS CAN BE EXPECTED TGT ON THE                 
WEST SIDE OF SFC RDG PUSHING E OF THE CWA. S-SELY SFC WNDS SUN                  
MRNG WILL BCM SWLY SUN AFTN INCRSG TO 8-10 KTS.                                 
GKS                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WFO LSX                                                                         
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
1116 AM CST SAT DEC 29 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST FORTHCOMING TO ACCOUNT FOR HOURLY                  
TEMP AND DEWPOINT TRENDS AS WELL AS TO TWEAK HIGHS DOWNWARD A FEW               
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MO. NARROW BAND OF                    
STRATUS HAS DISSIPATED AS EXPECTED DUE TO MIXING. WARM ADVECTION                
IS UNDERWAY...BUT LAGGING IN TIME A BIT. USING 12Z SOUNDINGS AND                
EXPECTED 925/850MB TEMPS...HAVE TRENDED EXPECTED HIGHS DOWNWARD A               
FEW DEGREES. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.                             
GAGAN/CLAYCOMB                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS SHIFTING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING IN            
THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS UPPER LOW THAT FORCED SOME LIGHT RAIN AND             
SNOW IN MOST AREAS.  SOME LINGERING STRATUS WAS LIMITING                        
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING INTO THE TEENS ALONG THE OZARK PLATEAU.               
THIS STRATUS WILL LIKELY BURN OFF QUICKLY UPON SUNRISE THIS                     
MORNING.                                                                        
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM                        
THE WEST LATE TONIGHT.  A MOISTURE STARVED ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP                 
CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM.  HOWEVER...I CAN             
NOT RULE OUT SOME PRECIP CHANCES FOR MONDAY AS A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR            
RUSHES INTO THE REGION.  THIS CHANGE IN AIRMASS WAS THE MAIN                    
FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THIS MORNINGS ANALYSIS AS SINGLE DIGIT                    
READINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY MID WEEK.                                          
SHORT TERM (TODAY - TUESDAY NIGHT)...                                           
RUC 275K POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE SURFACE EXPLAINS WHY STRATUS IS                  
LINGERING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR.  A TROUGH AXIS                  
APPEARS TO BE STATIONARY NEAR THIS CORRIDOR...AND WEAK FLOW ACROSS              
THE AXIS IS PROVIDING A WEAK BAND OF LIFT IN THE FORM OF PRESSURE               
ADVECTION.  AFTER SUNRISE...THE LOWER TROP WILL BEGIN TO MIX OUT                
WHICH WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE THIS LOW LEVEL ZONE OF COLDER AIR.                  
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY                       
WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 40S THIS AFTERNOON.                     
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.  DESPITE              
MODERATE FORCING IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE...PRESSURE CONDENSATION                
LEVELS ARE SO HIGH AND CAN NOT BE REALIZED DUE TO A VERY DRY                    
AIRMASS.  00Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS                  
MEASURED PWATS LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.  THEREFORE ONLY SOME           
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL RESULT FROM THE PASSAGE OF THIS                 
DISTURBANCE.                                                                    
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BOOST                       
TEMPERATURES UP A FEW MORE DEGREES FROM TODAYS EXPECTED READINGS.               
AS A MATTER OF FACT...I INCREASED TEMPERATURES IN MOST LOCATIONS A              
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MAV GUIDANCE.  PROGGED SURFACE TO 850                   
THICKNESSES CORRELATES WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING THE LOWER 50S              
ON SUNDAY.  AGAIN...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF            
THE WEEKEND.                                                                    
ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SHOW GOOD RUN TO              
RUN CONSISTENCY WITH A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR DURING THE DAY ON                    
MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT WILL EXPERIENCE A COOLING TREND             
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  LOWER TEENS OR SINGLE DIGIT READINGS CAN NOT BE             
RULED OUT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS THE COLDEST AREA            
OF THIS AIRMASS SPREADS DIRECTLY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND OZARKS             
REGION.                                                                         
I INSERTED SOME SMALL POPS FOR MONDAYS DAY PERIOD.  IT APPEARS AS               
THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME UPPER SUPPORT CREATING LIFT AS THE ARCTIC             
SURGE OCCURS.  MODELS SUGGEST A LOT OF DRY AIR ABOVE                            
500MB...HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL EXIST FOR SLIGHT             
CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN.                                                  
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY)...                                               
FLOW OVER MOST OF THE NATIONS MID SECTION DURING THE LONG TERM WILL             
BE MOSTLY ZONAL AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE BEGINS TO DEAMPLIFY AS IT                  
PROGRESSES OVERHEAD.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL                
TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE TO NO RAIN CHANCES.  DESPITE A GOOD                     
POSSIBILITY OF SOUTHERLY FLOW...THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS             
THE GULF COAST STATES IS CONDUCIVE FOR OFF SHORE FLOW...ULTIMATELY              
SHUTTING DOWN ANY POSSIBLE MOISTURE RETURN.                                     
CRAMER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT              
24 HOURS AND BEYOND. ANOTHER FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE                 
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING WITH IT MAINLY MID AND HIGH                 
LEVEL CLOUD COVER. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH.                          
GAGAN                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
535 AM CST SAT DEC 29 2007                                                      
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...                                                        
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS SHIFTING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING IN            
THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS UPPER LOW THAT FORCED SOME LIGHT RAIN AND             
SNOW IN MOST AREAS.  SOME LINGERING STRATUS WAS LIMITING                        
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING INTO THE TEENS ALONG THE OZARK PLATEAU.               
THIS STRATUS WILL LIKELY BURN OFF QUICKLY UPON SUNRISE THIS                     
MORNING.                                                                        
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM                        
THE WEST LATE TONIGHT.  A MOISTURE STARVED ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP                 
CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM.  HOWEVER...I CAN             
NOT RULE OUT SOME PRECIP CHANCES FOR MONDAY AS A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR            
RUSHES INTO THE REGION.  THIS CHANGE IN AIRMASS WAS THE MAIN                    
FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THIS MORNINGS ANALYSIS AS SINGLE DIGIT                    
READINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY MID WEEK.                                          
SHORT TERM (TODAY - TUESDAY NIGHT)...                                           
RUC 275K POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE SURFACE EXPLAINS WHY STRATUS IS                  
LINGERING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR.  A TROUGH AXIS                  
APPEARS TO BE STATIONARY NEAR THIS CORRIDOR...AND WEAK FLOW ACROSS              
THE AXIS IS PROVIDING A WEAK BAND OF LIFT IN THE FORM OF PRESSURE               
ADVECTION.  AFTER SUNRISE...THE LOWER TROP WILL BEGIN TO MIX OUT                
WHICH WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE THIS LOW LEVEL ZONE OF COLDER AIR.                  
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY                       
WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 40S THIS AFTERNOON.                     
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.  DESPITE              
MODERATE FORCING IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE...PRESSURE CONDENSATION                
LEVELS ARE SO HIGH AND CAN NOT BE REALIZED DUE TO A VERY DRY                    
AIRMASS.  00Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS                  
MEASURED PWATS LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.  THEREFORE ONLY SOME           
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL RESULT FROM THE PASSAGE OF THIS                 
DISTURBANCE.                                                                    
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BOOST                       
TEMPERATURES UP A FEW MORE DEGREES FROM TODAYS EXPECTED READINGS.               
AS A MATTER OF FACT...I INCREASED TEMPERATURES IN MOST LOCATIONS A              
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MAV GUIDANCE.  PROGGED SURFACE TO 850                   
THICKNESSES CORRELATES WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING THE LOWER 50S              
ON SUNDAY.  AGAIN...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF            
THE WEEKEND.                                                                    
ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SHOW GOOD RUN TO              
RUN CONSISTENCY WITH A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR DURING THE DAY ON                    
MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT WILL EXPERIENCE A COOLING TREND             
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  LOWER TEENS OR SINGLE DIGIT READINGS CAN NOT BE             
RULED OUT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS THE COLDEST AREA            
OF THIS AIRMASS SPREADS DIRECTLY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND OZARKS             
REGION.                                                                         
I INSERTED SOME SMALL POPS FOR MONDAYS DAY PERIOD.  IT APPEARS AS               
THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME UPPER SUPPORT CREATING LIFT AS THE ARCTIC             
SURGE OCCURS.  MODELS SUGGEST A LOT OF DRY AIR ABOVE                            
500MB...HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL EXIST FOR SLIGHT             
CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN.                                                  
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY)...                                               
FLOW OVER MOST OF THE NATIONS MID SECTION DURING THE LONG TERM WILL             
BE MOSTLY ZONAL AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE BEGINS TO DEAMPLIFY AS IT                  
PROGRESSES OVERHEAD.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL                
TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE TO NO RAIN CHANCES.  DESPITE A GOOD                     
POSSIBILITY OF SOUTHERLY FLOW...THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS             
THE GULF COAST STATES IS CONDUCIVE FOR OFF SHORE FLOW...ULTIMATELY              
SHUTTING DOWN ANY POSSIBLE MOISTURE RETURN.                                     
CRAMER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 1200 UTC KSGF/KJLN TAFS...MVFR STRATUS IS STILL ONGOING OVER            
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN MO OZARKS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD            
DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE                  
ARKLATEX REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH A                
WEAK SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW DEVELOPING. AFTER THE STRATUS MIXES                     
OUT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS               
AT TIMES. DSA                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                            
422 AM CST SAT DEC 29 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
LONGWAVE H500 TROF WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS                
UNTIL MONDAY...WHEN NWP MODELS THEN HAVE THIS FEATURE BEGIN TO                  
SHIFT EWD...PLACING THE AREA INTO AN AREA OF BROAD NWLY MID LEVEL               
FLOW. THIS WOULD CONTINUE TO ALLUDE TO AN ACTIVE PATTERN...BUT                  
MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED...AND SHORTWAVE SYSTEMS WILL NOT BE              
AS DEEP OR STRONG AS THE PAST FEW. ONE SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE                 
THRU LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IMPACTING THE              
SRN/SERN FA...WITH A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROF TO THEN MOVE THRU LATE               
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG CDFNT AT THE                  
SURFACE. DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL THEN SETUP OVER THE AREA NEW                   
YEARS EVE AND DAY WITH A CLASSIC SNOW SHOWER SCENARIO...PRIMARILY               
FOR THE IL COUNTIES.                                                            
SYSTEM NUMBER ONE LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WILL BARELY                 
CARRY ENOUGH MOISTURE TO EXCEED NORMAL LATE DECEMBER PWAT VALUES...             
AND WILL BE RATHER DRY AT H850. HAVE CARRIED A DRY POP FOR THIS                 
EVENT. SHOULD PRIMARILY SEE INSTEAD A SWATH OF MID AND HI LEVEL                 
CLOUD OVER THE SRN AND ERN FA.                                                  
SYSTEM NUMBER TWO ON LATE SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL HAVE A BIT                  
MORE MOISTURE...DEEPER LIFT THRU THE COLUMN AND LESS SATURATION AT              
THE LOW LEVELS TO ACHIEVE. GFS DEPICTS A COLUMN MOISTENING UP                   
QUICKER THAN THE NAM...AS WELL AS A SYSTEM THAT IS MORE IN PHASE                
WITH ITS NRN AND SRN COMPONENTS...WHEREAS THE NAM TAKES THESE TWO               
FEATURES SEPARATELY ACROSS THE FA. UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHICH ONE                  
WILL VERIFY AND NOT ENOUGH OF A FEEL TO LEAN ONE WAY OR                         
ANOTHER...BUT ALSO GIVEN STRONG CDFNT AT THE SFC MAKING ITS WAY                 
THRU DURING MONDAY...FELT IT REASONABLE TO PLACE SMALL CHANCE POPS              
IN THE IL COUNTIES WHERE BETTER SATURATION SHOULD OCCUR. HAVE                   
TRACE-TYPE PCPN IN THE MO COUNTIES. MAINLY FROZEN PCPN IN THE NRN               
FA AND LIQUID IN THE S...BUT AMOUNTS OVERALL WILL BE LIGHT WITH                 
LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUM EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.                                  
SCT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL THEN TAKE PLACE IN THE AFTERMATH              
ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW...AN UPPER                  
LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND...AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO                  
SUPPORT PCPN.                                                                   
STRONG HI PRES OF 1045MB WILL THEN DOMINATE THE FA FOR MID WEEK                 
AND TO RING IN 2008 ON A COLD NOTE.                                             
TES                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...LOW LVL CLOUD CEILING ARND 2000 FT SHOULD                    
SLOWLY CLR FM W TO E DURING THE LT NGT AND EARLY MRNG HRS AT THE                
TAF SITES. LOOKING AT LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS CLOUDS CLRG OUT OVER               
WRN MO ATTM. THIS CLRG SHOULD WORK EWD INTO COU JUST AFTER 06Z SAT              
AND IN UIN...STL AND SUS ARND 12Z SAT. LATEST RUC FCST AT 925 MB                
DEPICTS LWRG RH VALUES AT THIS LVL FM W TO E DURING THE OVERNIGHT               
HRS. WITH CLRG LT TGT IN COU MAY BE SOME FOG DVLPG WITH SATURATED               
GROUND FM RECENT PCPN AND WITH DIMINISHING SFC WND SPEEDS. SHOULD               
BE MAINLY HI LVL CLOUDS ON SAT. GUSTY WLY SFC WNDS SHOULD CONT TO               
DIMINISH DUIRNG THE OVERNIGHT HRS AS THE SFC LOW OVR NRN MICHIGAN               
CONTS MOVG FURTHER NE OF THE CWA AND AS SFC HI CNTRD OVR OK BLDS                
E-NEWD INTO MO. THE SFC WND WL BACK ARND TO A SWLY DIRECTION BY LT SAT          
MRNG AS THE SFC HI SHIFTS S-SE OF THE CWA.                                      
GKS                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WFO LSX                                                                         
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
140 AM CST SAT DEC 29 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS SHIFTING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING IN            
THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS UPPER LOW THAT FORCED SOME LIGHT RAIN AND             
SNOW IN MOST AREAS.  SOME LINGERING STRATUS WAS LIMITING                        
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING INTO THE TEENS ALONG THE OZARK PLATEAU.               
THIS STRATUS WILL LIKELY BURN OFF QUICKLY UPON SUNRISE THIS                     
MORNING.                                                                        
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM                        
THE WEST LATE TONIGHT.  A MOISTURE STARVED ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP                 
CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM.  HOWEVER...I CAN             
NOT RULE OUT SOME PRECIP CHANCES FOR MONDAY AS A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR            
RUSHES INTO THE REGION.  THIS CHANGE IN AIRMASS WAS THE MAIN                    
FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THIS MORNINGS ANALYSIS AS SINGLE DIGIT                    
READINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY MID WEEK.                                          
SHORT TERM (TODAY - TUESDAY NIGHT)...                                           
RUC 275K POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE SURFACE EXPLAINS WHY STRATUS IS                  
LINGERING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR.  A TROUGH AXIS                  
APPEARS TO BE STATIONARY NEAR THIS CORRIDOR...AND WEAK FLOW ACROSS              
THE AXIS IS PROVIDING A WEAK BAND OF LIFT IN THE FORM OF PRESSURE               
ADVECTION.  AFTER SUNRISE...THE LOWER TROP WILL BEGIN TO MIX OUT                
WHICH WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE THIS LOW LEVEL ZONE OF COLDER AIR.                  
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY                       
WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 40S THIS AFTERNOON.                     
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.  DESPITE              
MODERATE FORCING IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE...PRESSURE CONDENSATION                
LEVELS ARE SO HIGH AND CAN NOT BE REALIZED DUE TO A VERY DRY                    
AIRMASS.  00Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS                  
MEASURED PWATS LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.  THEREFORE ONLY SOME           
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL RESULT FROM THE PASSAGE OF THIS                 
DISTURBANCE.                                                                    
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BOOST                       
TEMPERATURES UP A FEW MORE DEGREES FROM TODAYS EXPECTED READINGS.               
AS A MATTER OF FACT...I INCREASED TEMPERATURES IN MOST LOCATIONS A              
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MAV GUIDANCE.  PROGGED SURFACE TO 850                   
THICKNESSES CORRELATES WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING THE LOWER 50S              
ON SUNDAY.  AGAIN...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF            
THE WEEKEND.                                                                    
ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SHOW GOOD RUN TO              
RUN CONSISTENCY WITH A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR DURING THE DAY ON                    
MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT WILL EXPERIENCE A COOLING TREND             
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  LOWER TEENS OR SINGLE DIGIT READINGS CAN NOT BE             
RULED OUT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS THE COLDEST AREA            
OF THIS AIRMASS SPREADS DIRECTLY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND OZARKS             
REGION.                                                                         
I INSERTED SOME SMALL POPS FOR MONDAYS DAY PERIOD.  IT APPEARS AS               
THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME UPPER SUPPORT CREATING LIFT AS THE ARCTIC             
SURGE OCCURS.  MODELS SUGGEST A LOT OF DRY AIR ABOVE                            
500MB...HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL EXIST FOR SLIGHT             
CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN.                                                  
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY)...                                               
FLOW OVER MOST OF THE NATIONS MID SECTION DURING THE LONG TERM WILL             
BE MOSTLY ZONAL AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE BEGINS TO DEAMPLIFY AS IT                  
PROGRESSES OVERHEAD.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL                
TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE TO NO RAIN CHANCES.  DESPITE A GOOD                     
POSSIBILITY OF SOUTHERLY FLOW...THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS             
THE GULF COAST STATES IS CONDUCIVE FOR OFF SHORE FLOW...ULTIMATELY              
SHUTTING DOWN ANY POSSIBLE MOISTURE RETURN.                                     
CRAMER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...STUBBORN MVFR STRATUS APPEARS TO BE MAKING ITS               
LAST STAND OVER SPRINGFIELD AND JOPLIN LATE THIS EVENING.                       
HIGHER CLOUD DECK MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS MASKING BACK                  
EDGE OF STRATUS ON INFRARED SATELLITE...SO ANY CLOUD INFO FROM                  
PILOTS WOULD BE HELPFUL.                                                        
BASED ON AREA SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND UPPER FLOW MOVEMENT...WILL               
START THE KJLN TAF AT VFR AND IMPROVE CEILINGS TO VFR AT KSGF BY                
AROUND 07Z. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS            
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES IN WAKE OF SURFACE HIGH BUILDING ACROSS               
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.                                                            
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS EVENING. DO NOT                
PLAN TO CARRY PRECIP AT THIS TIME BUT WILL LOWER A BROKEN DECK TO               
AROUND 10KFT AFTER 00Z.                                                         
TERRY                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                            
1102 PM CST FRI DEC 28 2007                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN IL WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT THIS EVENING.            
ON BACKSIDE OF SYSTEM...WILL STILL SEE SOME LIGHT FLURRY ACTIVITY               
FOR NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF CWA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...MAIN             
FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE CLOUDS AND TEMPS. SKIES WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR            
TONIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 20 FAR NORTH...OVER SNOW                  
FIELD...TO THE MID 20S FAR SOUTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA.                  
BY TOMORROW...WEAK RIDGING TO BUILD IN WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND              
WINDS BACKING TO THE SOUTH ONCE AGAIN. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO                 
TODAY/S...IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.                                            
SFC RIDGE TO MOVE OFF SATURDAY NIGHT AS NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE              
APPROACHES THE AREA. HOWEVER...LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAKE             
PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE A DRY ONE WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.           
MILD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH                       
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.                                       
HOWEVER...NEXT SHORTWAVE TO APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND                  
MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS A MUCH MORE ROBUST THAN PREVIOUS SYSTEM.                 
STRONGEST ENERGY TO REMAIN JUST NORTH OF CWA...SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT              
CHANCE MENTION FOR NOW...WITH LIGHT SNOW/LIGHT RAIN FOR NORTHERN AND            
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA. BEYOND THAT NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE               
EXTENDED AS STRONG SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK            
WITH A GRADUAL WARM UP TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND.                                    
BYRD                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...LOW LVL CLOUD CEILING ARND 2000 FT SHOULD                    
SLOWLY CLR FM W TO E DURING THE LT NGT AND EARLY MRNG HRS AT THE                
TAF SITES. LOOKING AT LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS CLOUDS CLRG OUT OVER               
WRN MO ATTM. THIS CLRG SHOULD WORK EWD INTO COU JUST AFTER 06Z SAT              
AND IN UIN...STL AND SUS ARND 12Z SAT. LATEST RUC FCST AT 925 MB                
DEPICTS LWRG RH VALUES AT THIS LVL FM W TO E DURING THE OVERNIGHT               
HRS. WITH CLRG LT TGT IN COU MAY BE SOME FOG DVLPG WITH SATURATED               
GROUND FM RECENT PCPN AND WITH DIMINISHING SFC WND SPEEDS. SHOULD               
BE MAINLY HI LVL CLOUDS ON SAT. GUSTY WLY SFC WNDS SHOULD CONT TO               
DIMINISH DUIRNG THE OVERNIGHT HRS AS THE SFC LOW OVR NRN MICHIGAN               
CONTS MOVG FURTHER NE OF THE CWA AND AS SFC HI CNTRD OVR OK BLDS                
E-NEWD INTO MO. THE SFC WND WL BACK ARND TO A SWLY DIRECTION BY LT SAT          
MRNG AS THE SFC HI SHIFTS S-SE OF THE CWA.                                      
GKS                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WFO LSX                                                                         
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
933 PM EST SUN DEC 30 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A STORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST                      
OVERNIGHT TO CAPE COD MONDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A                  
WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE REGION. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE              
AREA ON TUESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY MORE SNOW...AND FOLLOWED BY                    
BITTER COLD AIR. THE BITTER COLD AIR WILL LAST A COUPLE DAYS AS THERE           
WILL BE A MODERATING TREND BY THE END OF THE WEEK.                              
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...                                       
NOT MUCH TO CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE. ADJUSTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP               
SLIGHTLY IN THE WARNING AREA OF THE WRN CATSKILLS TO OTSEGO COUNTY AND          
IN NORTHERN WAYNE CO PA. THINK UP TO 10 INCHES IS A DEFINITIVE                  
POSSIBILITY IN THESE AREAS. LOCAL WRF MESOSCALE MODEL RUN AT 12Z...AND          
LATEST NAM 12 KM 00Z RUN SHOW AN INTENSIFYING BAND OF FGEN FORCING              
BETWEEN 750 AND 700 MB AS IT WORKS NE RAPIDLY FROM SC PA TO NE PA               
AND ERN NY. RADAR RETURNS AT PRESENT CORRELATE WELL TO THE 700-750              
MB FGEN FORCING ON THE 00Z NAM12. THIS MODEL SHOWS THE MOST INTENSE             
FORCING REACHING THE CATSKILLS AND EXTREME NE PA BY 06Z. THUS                   
HIGHER RADAR RETURNS IN SC PA WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY NE INTO THE                   
WARNING AREA AND SLOW DOWN SOME IN THE NEXT 3 HOURS OR SO. IN                   
ADDTN...THERE IS A LAYER OF NEG EPV THAT BEGINS TO EXPAND OVER                  
THE CATSKILLS/EXT NE PA ABV THE FGEN LAYER TO FURTHER ENHANCE                   
SNOWFALL RATES. THIS WHOLE PROCESS IS THE BEGINNING OF THE CLOSING              
OFF OF THE LOWER LEVEL CYCLONE AS IT REALLY GETS GOING FARTHER NE               
OF OUR AREA INTO NEW ENGLAND. BUT WE BELIEVE THE CATSKILLS TO                   
OTSEGO COUNTY IS THE BEGINNING OF THE SWATH OF HEAVIER SNOW FROM                
THIS STORM. HEAVY SNOW SHUD REACH THESE AREAS BY 11 PM OR SO AND                
LAST UNTIL AROUND 3 AM.                                                         
REST OF FORECAST AREA IS UNDER DEEP ISEN LIFT FM ARND 800 MB TO                 
ALMOST 650 MB AS SEEN ON THE 285...290 AND 295 K SURFACES BETWEEN               
ROUGHLY 3 AND 9Z. THIS HAPPENS IN CONCERT WITH STRG UPR LVL LIFTG               
ASSCTD WITH 300 MB PV ADVECTION. ISENTROPES ARE BEING LIFTED AS                 
THE AIR FLOWS UP THESE SURFACES. THIS IS IDEAL FOR WIDESPREAD                   
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWS. ISEN LIFT IS STRGEST E OF A SYR TO                     
WAVERLY NY TO IPT LINE THEREFORE SNOWS WILL BE A LITTLE HEAVIER IN              
THESE AREAS. THE NRN EDGE OF THE HIGHER RADAR RETURNS IN PA                     
APPEARS TO BE TARGETING THESE AREAS AS WELL.                                    
ALSO THREW IN A LITTLE MORE ZR AND IP IN THE POCONOS/SRN CATSKILLS              
BASED ON THE OBS AND RADAR RETURNS WHICH LOOKS LIKE SOME SLEET IS               
MIXING IN. RUC13 AND GFS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A SMALL WARM LAYER                   
REACHES THIS AREA ARND 3Z OR SO...BUT SOON COOLS OFF. SO IT WILL                
BE A SMALL PERIOD AND MINIMAL.                                                  
SNOW WILL WIND DOWN FIRST OVER NRN PA BY ARND 12Z...THEN LINGER A               
LITTLE LONGER UNTIL LATE MORNING IN NC AND EC NY...BUT IT WILL BE               
LIGHTER THAN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.                                               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...                            
NEXT SYSTEM WILL PARADE THRU THE FA LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH                   
TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER PACIFIC NORTHWEST                
AND IS PROGGED TO DIVE INTO THE PLAINS OVRNGT. SFC LOW WILL                     
DEVELOP IN RESPONSE AND CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...APPCHG WNY BY 12Z               
TUESDAY. LATEST NAM GUIDANCE INDICATES H7 LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVR                
FA WITH H5 RMNG FAIRLY OPEN AS IT MVS OVR CENTRAL FA. NAM GUIDANCE              
HAS BEEN TRENDING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH UPPER FEATURES. NOT               
A WHOLE LOT OF DIFFERENCE BTWN NAM AND GFS THUS FAR AS BOTH CLOSE               
OF H7 LOW TO SOME EXTENT AND LV H5 FEATURE MORE AS IN OPEN                      
TROF...ALBEIT GETTING A LITTLE STRONGER AND DEEPER.                             
SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK ALONG THE NY/PA BORDER ON TUESDAY. AT               
THIS POINT...NAM DIFFERS IN THAT IT TRANSFERS ENERGY MORE TOWARD THE            
COAST AND RE-DEVELOPS LOW ALONG ERN SEABOARD WHILE GFS KEEPS A MORE             
CONSOLIDATED LOW INLAND. ALL THESE FEATURES WILL COME INTO PLAY                 
REGARDING SNOWFALL AMNTS. FOR THE TIME BEING...HAVE GONE WITH A                 
BLEND OF NAM/GFS QPF. BOTH MODELS INDICATE A POSSIBLE DRY SLOT TUE              
AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR SOUTH H5 FEATURE                      
EVENTUALLY TRACKS. BASED ON POSN OF SYSTEM THUS FAR...HAVE GONE WITH            
QPF FROM 0.25-0.50 INCHES FROM 00Z MON-00Z TUE.  LESSOR AMNTS                   
EXPECTED DOWN SOUTH IF DRY SLOT MATERIALIZES WITH HIGHER TOTALS OVR             
FINGER LAKES. PART OF THIS MAY BE ENHANCED BY LK EFFECT AS FLOW                 
TRANSITIONS QUICKLY.                                                            
LIMITING FACTOR FOR HIGH SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE LACK OF MOISTURE.              
EARLIER SYSTEM WILL TAKE A GOOD CHUNK OF THE MOISTURE WITH IT AND               
NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT IN THE WAY OF RETURN AHEAD OF THIS NEXT               
SYSTEM. THAT BEING SAID THOUGH...COMPROMISE QPF BTWN NAM (MUCH                  
HEAVIER OF THE TWO) AND GFS WUD STILL YIELD WARNING CRITERIA SNOWS              
FROM FINGER LAKES INTO ONEIDA CTY AND POSSIBLE ADVISORY DOWN TO THE             
SRN TIER...POSSIBLY ENHANCED DUE TO LAKE EFFECT. CUD SEE A BRIEF MIX            
WITH SLEET OVR NEPA WHERE LOWEST AMNTS ARE EXPECTED AS OF NOW. HAVE             
OPTED NOT TO ISSUE A WATCH FOR THIS SYSTEM AS OF YET DUE TO ONGOING             
WINTER HEADLINES. HOWEVER...WILL PLAY IT UP IN THE HWO FOR POSSIBLE             
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                    
MAIN STORY DURING FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE MUCH                
COLDER AIRMASS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AS UPPER LEVEL LOW                  
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA AND COLD NORTHWEST FLOW                     
ENSUES. AT THIS POINT, IT LOOKS LIKE THE FLOW WILL BE SUCH THAT                 
THE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE PRIMARILY A LONG-LIVED, MULTI-BAND EVENT                
TARGETING AREAS SOUTH OF THE LAKES, AND THE FINGER LAKES REGION OF              
NEW YORK FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AFTER THAT, QUICK                    
MODERATING TREND AS UPPER RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE AT SFC MOVE EAST              
TO COVER MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. TEMPS LOOK TO                 
REBOUND QUICKLY TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
IFR IN -SN AND CIG SPREADING N QUICKLY INTO NRN PA AND SC NY WITH               
AVP DOWN TO IFR ALREADY...BGM AT MVFR. I EXPECT TAFS SITES ELM...BGM AND        
ITH TO BE IFR IN -SN BETWEEN 00Z AND 01Z. THE IFR SNOWS AND CIGS                
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SYR AND RME BY 2-3Z. MESOSCALE MODELS                     
INDICATE STRG LIFTG IN ASSCTN WITH FGEN FRCG AFFECTING NE PA TO EC              
NY BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z SO I HAVE TIMED IN LIFR IN SN TO BGM/AVP AT              
THESE TIMES. HEAVIEST SNOW PROGRESSES N IN THIS TIME FRAME SO I                 
HAVE ELM AND ITH GETTING DOWN TO 3/4SM IN THIS TIME FRAME AND                   
EVENTUALLY RME AND SYR BETWEEN 06Z AND 11Z. AFTER THE HEAVIEST                  
SNOW LEAVES THERE WILL BE A GRADUALLY IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR TO MVFR              
THEN TO VFR FM S TO N AS THE SNOWS TAPER BY 18Z. AFTER THE SYS                  
PASSES BY TO OUR NE MON PM...I EXPECT SCT-BKN VFR SC WITH NO                    
RESTRICTIONS.                                                                   
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT FROM THE E UNTIL ARND 08-10Z WHEN THEY               
SWITCH SW...THEN W BY ARND MID MORNING MON AND REACH CLSE TO 10                 
KNTS.                                                                           
MONDAY EVE THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR MOST PLACES MONDAY EVE. ANOTHER CHC             
FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS                    
ANOTHER SFC LOW MOVES THRU FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND SPREADS SNOW                
BACK INTO THE AREA. CUD SEE MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS AGAIN WITH                    
ANOTHER CHC FOR HVY SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVR NY TERMINALS. NORTHWEST               
FLOW ALONG WITH ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLIGHT                
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS                
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
PA...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ038-039-043-044-               
     047-048-072.                                                               
     HEAVY SNOW WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ040.                      
NY...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-                   
     022>025-036-037-044-045-055-056.                                           
     HEAVY SNOW WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ046-057-062.              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...DJN                                                                  
NEAR TERM...DJN                                                                 
SHORT TERM...MSE/TAC                                                            
LONG TERM...PVB                                                                 
AVIATION...DJN                                                                  
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
629 PM EST SUN DEC 30 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A STORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST TODAY INTO                     
MONDAY...BRINGING SNOW TO THE REGION. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL                 
CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY... ACCOMPANIED BY MORE SNOW... AND                    
FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER WEATHER.                                                
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...                                        
INITIAL SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW IS WORKING NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL PA               
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS                    
NORTHEAST PA THROUGH 5 PM... BUT THIS PROGRESSION WILL LIKELY SLOW              
AS THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO OUTRUN ITS FORCING. MAIN SHOT OF                 
LIFT IS STILL EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING... AND               
THIS IS THE TIME WHEN SNOW SHOULD EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE                      
FORECAST AREA.                                                                  
THERE IS STILL A CONCERN FOR SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION DURING THE                
ONSET OF THIS EVENT ACROSS NORTHEAST PA. THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDING              
AT AVP IS WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MIXED PRECIPITATION UNTIL AROUND               
06Z. THE NAM... LOCAL ARW AND RUC ARE SOMEWHAT COLDER AND WOULD                 
CONFINE MIXED PRECIPITATION MAINLY TO AREAS SOUTH OF I-80.                      
THE BEST FORCING FOR LIFT STILL APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE                        
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH                
ABOUT 09Z WHEN SIGNIFICANT FRONTOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP                 
CO-LOCATED WTIH REDUCED STABILITY. THIS SHOULD FORCE A BAND OF                  
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FROM THE NORTHERN POCONOS NORTHEAST INTO                 
THE CATSKILLS. HAVE GONE WITH A HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR UP TO 8                  
INCHES IN THAT AREA. FARTHER TO THE WEST... BANDING SIGNALS ARE                 
NOT AS IMPRESSIVE... BUT BROAD-SCALE LIFT FOR SEVERAL HOURS SHOULD              
STILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD 3 TO 6 INCH SNOW EVENT.                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...                             
NEXT SYSTEM WILL PARADE THRU THE FA LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH                   
TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER PACIFIC NORTHWEST                
AND IS PROGGED TO DIVE INTO THE PLAINS OVRNGT. SFC LOW WILL                     
DEVELOP IN RESPONSE AND CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...APPCHG WNY BY 12Z               
TUESDAY. LATEST NAM GUIDANCE INDICATES H7 LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVR                
FA WITH H5 RMNG FAIRLY OPEN AS IT MVS OVR CENTRAL FA. NAM GUIDANCE              
HAS BEEN TRENDING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH UPPER FEATURES. NOT               
A WHOLE LOT OF DIFFERENCE BTWN NAM AND GFS THUS FAR AS BOTH CLOSE               
OF H7 LOW TO SOME EXTENT AND LV H5 FEATURE MORE AS IN OPEN                      
TROF...ALBEIT GETTING A LITTLE STRONGER AND DEEPER.                             
SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK ALONG THE NY/PA BORDER ON TUESDAY. AT               
THIS POINT...NAM DIFFERS IN THAT IT TRANSFERS ENERGY MORE TOWARD THE            
COAST AND RE-DEVELOPS LOW ALONG ERN SEABOARD WHILE GFS KEEPS A MORE             
CONSOLIDATED LOW INLAND. ALL THESE FEATURES WILL COME INTO PLAY                 
REGARDING SNOWFALL AMNTS. FOR THE TIME BEING...HAVE GONE WITH A                 
BLEND OF NAM/GFS QPF. BOTH MODELS INDICATE A POSSIBLE DRY SLOT TUE              
AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR SOUTH H5 FEATURE                      
EVENTUALLY TRACKS. BASED ON POSN OF SYSTEM THUS FAR...HAVE GONE WITH            
QPF FROM 0.25-0.50 INCHES FROM 00Z MON-00Z TUE.  LESSOR AMNTS                   
EXPECTED DOWN SOUTH IF DRY SLOT MATERIALIZES WITH HIGHER TOTALS OVR             
FINGER LAKES. PART OF THIS MAY BE ENHANCED BY LK EFFECT AS FLOW                 
TRANSITIONS QUICKLY.                                                            
LIMITING FACTOR FOR HIGH SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE LACK OF MOISTURE.              
EARLIER SYSTEM WILL TAKE A GOOD CHUNK OF THE MOISTURE WITH IT AND               
NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT IN THE WAY OF RETURN AHEAD OF THIS NEXT               
SYSTEM. THAT BEING SAID THOUGH...COMPROMISE QPF BTWN NAM (MUCH                  
HEAVIER OF THE TWO) AND GFS WUD STILL YIELD WARNING CRITERIA SNOWS              
FROM FINGER LAKES INTO ONEIDA CTY AND POSSIBLE ADVISORY DOWN TO THE             
SRN TIER...POSSIBLY ENHANCED DUE TO LAKE EFFECT. CUD SEE A BRIEF MIX            
WITH SLEET OVR NEPA WHERE LOWEST AMNTS ARE EXPECTED AS OF NOW. HAVE             
OPTED NOT TO ISSUE A WATCH FOR THIS SYSTEM AS OF YET DUE TO ONGOING             
WINTER HEADLINES. HOWEVER...WILL PLAY IT UP IN THE HWO FOR POSSIBLE             
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                    
MAIN STORY DURING FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE MUCH                
COLDER AIRMASS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AS UPPER LEVEL LOW                  
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA AND COLD NORTHWEST FLOW                     
ENSUES. AT THIS POINT, IT LOOKS LIKE THE FLOW WILL BE SUCH THAT                 
THE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE PRIMARILY A LONG-LIVED, MULTI-BAND EVENT                
TARGETING AREAS SOUTH OF THE LAKES, AND THE FINGER LAKES REGION OF              
NEW YORK FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AFTER THAT, QUICK                    
MODERATING TREND AS UPPER RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE AT SFC MOVE EAST              
TO COVER MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. TEMPS LOOK TO                 
REBOUND QUICKLY TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
IFR IN -SN AND CIG SPREADING N QUICKLY INTO NRN PA AND SC NY WITH               
AVP DOWN TO IFR ALREADY...BGM AT MVFR. I EXPECT TAFS SITES ELM...BGM AND        
ITH TO BE IFR IN -SN BETWEEN 00Z AND 01Z. THE IFR SNOWS AND CIGS                
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SYR AND RME BY 2-3Z. MESOSCALE MODELS                     
INDICATE STRG LIFTG IN ASSCTN WITH FGEN FRCG AFFECTING NE PA TO EC              
NY BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z SO I HAVE TIMED IN LIFR IN SN TO BGM/AVP AT              
THESE TIMES. HEAVIEST SNOW PROGRESSES N IN THIS TIME FRAME SO I                 
HAVE ELM AND ITH GETTING DOWN TO 3/4SM IN THIS TIME FRAME AND                   
EVENTUALLY RME AND SYR BETWEEN 06Z AND 11Z. AFTER THE HEAVIEST                  
SNOW LEAVES THERE WILL BE A GRADUALLY IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR TO MVFR              
THEN TO VFR FM S TO N AS THE SNOWS TAPER BY 18Z. AFTER THE SYS                  
PASSES BY TO OUR NE MON PM...I EXPECT SCT-BKN VFR SC WITH NO                    
RESTRICTIONS.                                                                   
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT FROM THE E UNTIL ARND 08-10Z WHEN THEY               
SWITCH SW...THEN W BY ARND MID MORNING MON AND REACH CLSE TO 10                 
KNTS.                                                                           
MONDAY EVE THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR MOST PLACES MONDAY EVE. ANOTHER CHC             
FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS                    
ANOTHER SFC LOW MOVES THRU FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND SPREADS SNOW                
BACK INTO THE AREA. CUD SEE MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS AGAIN WITH                    
ANOTHER CHC FOR HVY SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVR NY TERMINALS. NORTHWEST               
FLOW ALONG WITH ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLIGHT                
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS                
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
PA...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ038-039-043-044-               
     047-048-072.                                                               
     HEAVY SNOW WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ040.                      
NY...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-                   
     022>025-036-037-044-045-055-056.                                           
     HEAVY SNOW WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ046-057-062.              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...MSE/TAC                                                              
NEAR TERM...MSE                                                                 
SHORT TERM...MSE/TAC                                                            
LONG TERM...PVB                                                                 
AVIATION...DJN                                                                  
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
1253 AM EST SAT DEC 29 2007                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MICHIGAN LATE THIS EVENING...WILL                    
TRACK NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC SATURDAY MORNING. MAINLY RAIN WILL BE               
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BEFORE ENDING AROUND DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY.            
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE                
DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WITH FAIR AND MILD WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS THE                
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.                                               
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...                                         
SATL IMAGERY SHOWS A VIGOUROUS UPR LVL WAVE TRACKING INTO LWR MI.               
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS STRG LL WAA/ISENT LIFT AND UPR LVL DRVG.               
THIS SYSTEM HAS A FAIRLY WELL DEVELOPED MOISTURE FEED AND AS A                  
RESULT LIGHT TO MODERATE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY                  
ENGULF C NY/NE PA THIS EVENING. RUC13...NAM 12 SOUNDINGS INDICATE               
THAT ENUF OF A WARM LAYER WILL ADVECT IN ALOFT LEADING TO A RAIN                
SOUNDING IN MOST AREAS. BNDRY LYR TEMPS WILL BEGIN BLO FREEZING IN              
NRN ONEIDA CO AND THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN DELAWARE...OTSEGO AND               
SULLIVAN...STUEBEN CO/S IN NY AND BRADFORD/WYOMING CO/S IN PA.                  
MESONET OBS SUGGEST TEMPS AT OR BLO FRZG ABV 2200 FEET WHICH IS A               
VERY LIMITED AREA IN THESE COUNTIES. IN ADDTN...THE WARM LAYER                  
REACHES FM +5 TO +7C BETWEEN 800 AND 900 MB INDICATING A RISE IN                
TEMPS ABV FRZG ALL ELEVATIONS SOON AFTER PRECIP STARTS. WET BULB                
TEMPS WERE NOT THAT COLD EITHER. I PUT SOME FZRA IN THE HIGHEST                 
GRID POINTS IN MUCH OF NE PA/ C NY FOR THIS EVENING WHICH IS VERY               
LIMITED. FARTHER N...WARM LAYER REACHES +2 TO +4C AND I DON/T                   
EXPECT PRECIP TO BE THAT HEAVY...SO I EXPECT A LONGER PERIOD OF                 
LIGHT FZRA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN ONEIDA CO MAINLY. LOCAL               
WRF SUGGESTS PRECIP BEGINS AS SNOW UP THERE...BUT LATEST NAM AND                
RUC ARE MUCH WARMER. OPTED FOR JUST FZRA. ISSUED AN ADVY FOR NRN                
ONEIDA CO TO COVER THIS. REST OF FORECAST AREA JUST RAIN.                       
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...                          
DRY SLOT MVS IN QUICK WITH AN END TO THE PCPN BY 12Z SATURDAY. CUD              
SEE SOME LINGERING RA/SN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. NOT TOO IMPRESSED                 
WITH LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL AS DENDRITE ZONE NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH              
IN THE WAY OF SNOW ACCUMS. HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT 30-40 POPS OVR NRN               
ZONES THRU SAT NIGHT. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO RMN IN CONTROL THRU               
SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE NEXT STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM               
THE SOUTHEAST.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                     
ONE MAIN SYNOPTIC STORM DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, AND THE GFS                 
HAS COME A BIT FURTHER WEST WITH THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO                  
MONDAY. THIS WOULD BRING BETTER CHC FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW                  
OVER SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, ESPECIALLY POCONOS INTO               
SRN CATSKILLS. BUMPED POPS AND QPF UP, BUT DID NOT GO TOO CRAZY                 
WITH IT AS THESE SYSTEMS HAVE BEEN DIFFICULT THIS WINTER AND                    
CONFIDENCE IS NOT TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT. THUS FAR, GFS IS RATHER               
WEAK WITH THE LOW AS IT MOVES OFF COAST NEAR THE OUTER BANKS AND                
WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. AFTER THAT, A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM IS                 
PROGGED TO MOVE THRU TUESDAY, WITH ANOTHER CHC FOR SOME LIGHT                   
SNOW. TEMPS GET MUCH COLDER FOR WEDNESDAY BEFORE MODERATION AGAIN               
AS SFC HIGH TRIES TO BUILD EAST AND HEIGHTS RISE.                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                   
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH 09Z- 10Z, WITH                 
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS PRIMARILY DUE TO CIGS. IFR, CONDITIONS               
DUE TO CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT KBGM/KITH THROUGH 09Z. CIGS WILL LIFT               
TO VFR BTW 14Z-15Z, AND REMAIN VFR FOR REMAINDER OF TAF VALID                   
TIME.                                                                           
S/SE WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO               
SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING. TOWARD EVENING WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO                  
AROUND 10 KNOTS BUT CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHWEST.                                
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                                   
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS FLOW GOES SW AHEAD               
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. FOR SUNDAY EVENING AVP MAY FALL TO MVFR CIG                 
AND VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW WITH A COASTAL STORM. BGM MAY ALSO GET INTO              
THE MVFR CIGS. REST OF SITES LESS LIKELY. NEXT MAJOR WEATHER MAKER              
AND CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS MOVING IN LATE ON MONDAY AND                
CONTINUING INTO WED.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
PA...NONE.                                                                      
NY...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR               
     NYZ009.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...DJN/TAC                                                              
NEAR TERM...DJN                                                                 
SHORT TERM...PVB                                                                
LONG TERM...JML                                                                 
AVIATION...RRM                                                                  
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
313 AM CST SUN DEC 30 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
PROBLEM TODAY AND NEXT FEW DAYS IS MORE AVIATION AND CLOUD                      
HEIGHTS...HOW FAR EAST CAN THE CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS GET TODAY.                
ON THE PUBLIC FCST SIDE...LITTLE CHANGE IN PREV FCST WAS MADE. 08Z              
SFC MAP SHOWS WEAK SFC LOW NEAR DICKINSON ND WITH TROUGH SOUTHEAST              
INTO SD AND NORTHWEST TO ANOTHER WEAK LOW IN SOUTHERN ALBERTA.                  
WATER VAPOR AND 500 MB RUC HEIGHT FIELDS INDICATE BROAD TROUGH                  
OVER NRN PLAINS AND SRN CANADA. ONE VORT MAX IN THE 500 MB FLOW                 
WAS NOTED IN FAR SRN MANITOBA AND SOME LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN                      
OCCURRING WITH THIS FEATURE FROM BRANDON TO WINNIPEG WITH ECHOES                
FROM WOODLAND MB AND KMVX RADARS SHOWING SOME LIGHT SNOW LIKELY AS              
WELL OVER PARTS OF FAR NE ND/NW MN. MODELS CONTINUE TO HIT AT THIS              
AREA WITH BEST SATURATION AT 850 MB TODAY AND BEST CHC OF SEEING                
SOME LIGHT SNOW. OTHERWISE...LOW CLOUDS HANGING FROM THE RED RIVER              
VALLEY EASTWARD. AS WINDS TURN LIGHT TODAY AND MIXING DECREASES                 
NOT SURE ABOUT DEGREE OF LOW CLOUD REMOVAL AS NOTICING A SURGE OF               
LOW CLOUDS BACK SOUTHEAST FROM SE SASK ON BACKSIDE OF VORT .ALSO                
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ABOVE THE CLOUDS TODAY...SO WILL               
KEEP WITH HIGH CLOUD PERCENTAGES IN THE GRIDDS....THOUGH CERTAINLY              
SOME AREAS COULD SEE THE SUN FOR A TIME TODAY (NAMELY WEST AND                  
SOUTH OF FARGO). TEMPS TODAY LOOK WARMEST THIS MORNING AND MORE OF              
A STEADY STATE THE REST OF THE DAY AS 850 MB TEMPS COOL SLOWLY                  
AFTER 12Z.                                                                      
AS PACIFIC STORM MOVES CLOSER TO THE WA/OR COAST...500 MB RIDGE                 
WILL DEVELOP NORTHWARD INTO B.C. HELPING TO DISLODGE CURRENT 500                
MB LOW IN CNTRL CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO NRN MN MONDAY. A DECENT COLD              
SHOT EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO -18 TO                  
-20C MON NIGHT-TUESDAY. ALSO LOTS OF CLOUDS WITH THIS FEATURE AS                
WELL ALONG WITIH SOME AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES. THIS COVERED                
WELL FROM PREV FCST SO LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED. UPPER LOW PULLS                
EAST ON TUESDAY WITH BEST CHC OF CLEARING TUES AFTN INTO TUES                   
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. COLDEST NIGHT LOOKS TO BE                
TUES NIGHT...THOUGH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP IN ERN ND WILL PREVENT               
COMPLETE DROP OFF IN TEMPS.                                                     
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
NO CHANGES WERE MADE. AFTER A QUICK COLD SHOT MILDER WEATHER IN                 
STORE THU-FRI AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THRU SRN CANADA AND FCST AREA               
ON WARM SIDE OF SYSTEM. JUST HOW WARM OF COURSE ALWAYS THE ISSUE                
WITH PACIFIC AIRMASS OVER AREA AND PSBLY THE USUAL CLOUDS THAT MAY              
BE PRESENT IN MOIST WESTERLY FLOW.  CURRENT FCST SEEMS OK.                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN HOW LOW CLOUDS WILL HANDLE TODAY IN THE                  
VALLEY (FAR-GFK TAF SITES). ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW CLOUDS HEADED                  
TOWARD MINOT AND DVL THIS MORNING WHERE JUST MID CLOUDS ARE                     
CURRENTLY LOCATED. THUS NOT TREMENDOUSLY OPTIMISTIC OF MUCH LOW                 
CLOUD CLEARING. BEMIDJI WOULD STAND THE LEAST CHC. AS IN PAST                   
MORNINGS WOULD EXPECT SOME MVFR VSBYS (3-5 SM IN BR) AND CIGS                   
LOWERING A BIT TO THE IFR RANGE IN TAF SITES...THEN RECOVERING A                
BIT BACK INTO MVFR RANGE DURING THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. SOUTHERLY               
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY THIS AFTN WITH SFC TROUGH               
MOVING THRU.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RIDDLE                                                                          
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
501 PM EST SUN DEC 30 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES WILL                    
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE                  
TRAVELING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT                 
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN MUCH COLDER AIR AND                
SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE NEW YEAR. THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL                 
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE                
FRONT.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...                                       
SKY COVER WILL DIMINISH AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW INITIATES BETWEEN HIGH              
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO THE                        
NORTHWEST. RADAR ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER AIR                        
DISTURBANCE ARE NOT REACHING THE GROUND SO KEPT POPS IN THE 5 TO                
14 PERCENT RANGE WHICH IS BELOW GUIDANCE. MADE NO CHANGES LOWS IN               
THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 SINCE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN                
THAT RESPECT.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                      
WENT WITH GFS SOLUTION WHICH HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH LOW                  
TRACK AND QPF. GFS SCENARIO HAS THE LOW MOVING FROM NORTHERN                    
ILLINOIS AT 18Z MONDAY TO LAKE ERIE AT 06Z TUESDAY THEN INTO NEW                
YORK STATE BY 12Z. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE FORECAST TO            
CARRY A LIGHT AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE ILN AREA. THIS IS                
IN CONTRAST TO THE NAM WHICH HAS A STRONGER LOW MOVING THROUGH                  
CENTRAL OHIO WHICH IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.                
RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LOCATIONS                       
APPROACHING 80 PERCENT. KEPT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AN INCH OR LESS.                
BEHIND THE LOW...THE FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR               
SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. KEPT HIGH CHANCE                        
POPS...AND SOME LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE ANOTHER INCH OR TWO                       
ACCUMULATION THROUGH THAT PERIOD. ALSO...WINDS WILL BE BRISK WITH               
GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE.                                                       
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL FROM ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY TO BELOW NORMAL              
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. REDUCED FORECAST TEMPERATURES TUESDAY                
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WHEN LOWS MAY FALL INTO THE LOWER TEENS.                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                        
DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED...THE OHIO VALLEY REGION WILL             
BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT.             
THE REGION WILL SEE MUCH COLDER AIR ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH             
HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 20S AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM                
AROUND 10 DEGREES TO NEAR 15 DEGREES. IN ADDITION...SHORTWAVES WILL             
FINISH ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER TROF AND SCT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS                
WILL COME TO AN END WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE IS THE                   
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES WHERE               
SNOW BANDS ARE HEAVIER AND PERSIST. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE            
WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. THE COLD                       
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT LIVED. AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE             
REGION...A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE SE OF THE OHIO VALLEY REGION.                 
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY FRI ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE              
HIGH...BRINGING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN                 
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL EFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY AND A WEAK COLD              
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION SUNDAY BRINGING THE              
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE REGION. FOR THE MOST PART...THE             
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME            
SNOW EARLY ON. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S            
WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING UPPER 40S.                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
PLENTY OF CLOUDS STREAMING THRU REGION AHEAD OF MID LVL S/WV. S/WV              
WILL LIFT INTO GRT LKS THIS EVNG...POSSIBLY PRODUCING A FEW                     
FLURRIES AT KDAY. CURRENT RUC ANALYSIS INDCG MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE                
THE BEST HANDLE ON BNDRY LYR MOISTURE FOR THE AFTN HOURS. DRIER LO              
LVL AIR COURTESY OF E/SE FLO HAS PUSHED MUCH OF THE MVFR SC WEST                
OF THE TERMINALS INTO INDIANA. THIS SHOULD HOLD FOR MUCH OF THE                 
REST OF THE AFTN BEFORE DEEPER BNDRY LYR MOISTURE SPREADS BACK IN               
AS S/WV PASSES TO THE NW. KCVG/KLUK SHOULD BE MAINLY SPARED OF THE              
BKN MVFR DECK...BUT EXPECT IT WILL AFFECT NORTHERN TERMINALS                    
DURING THE EVNG. WEAK SFC HI PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE OH VLY              
LATE TONIGHT...AND SHOULD HELP SCATTER OUT THE LOWER CLOUDS DURING              
THE SECOND HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT. EXCEPTION WILL BE IN CNTRL OH                 
WHERE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDCG MVFR CIGS MAY HOLD ALL NIGHT. MID LVL               
CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE FCST AREA FROM                
THE WEST DURING THE LATE MRNG MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM              
TO AFFECT REGION MON EVNG. VRB WINDS THIS AFTN WILL VEER TO S/SW                
TONIGHT BEHIND THE S/WV.                                                        
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.             
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO                                                             
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO                                                            
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO                                                           
LONG TERM...PARKER                                                              
AVIATION...RYAN                                                                 
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
1248 PM EST SUN DEC 30 2007                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CARRYING LIMITED MOISTURE WILL                   
SWING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.                
LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A STRONG               
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN MUCH                    
COLDER AIR AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE NEW YEAR.                                   
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
PLENTY OF CLOUDS STREAMING ACRS FCST AREA THIS MRNG AS OH VLY SITS              
ON BACK SIDE OF SFC LO PRES ACRS THE SRN APPALACHIANS. WEAK MID                 
LVL S/WV BRINGING SOME FLURRIES AND ISOLD -SHSN TO PORTIONS OF                  
INDIANA. TEMPS REMAINED IN THE U20S/L30S.                                       
RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR MOSAIC ACRS INDIANA AND EXTNDG INTO NW              
OHIO. WITH EXCEPTION OF FEW REPORTS OF FLURRIES/-SHSN OVER SWRN                 
INDIANA...APPEARS MAJORITY OF THESE RETURNS ARE NOT MAKING IT TO                
THE GROUND. AS S/WV SWINGS THRU NW OHIO THIS AFTN...MID LVL                     
DEFORMATION AXIS STRENGTHENS WITH ISENT LIFT AT 285K LVL BECOMG                 
NEARLY SATURATED OVER WEST CNTRL OH. WILL CONTINUE 30 POPS ROUGHLY              
NORTHWEST OF A RICHMOND-SPRINGFIELD-DELAWARE LINE FOR THE AFTN AND              
INTO THE EVNG. 12Z NAM CONTINUES TO BE TOO GENEROUS WITH QPF...AND              
HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS 06Z/12Z OP GFS WHICH SHOW ONLY A FEW                   
HUNDREDTHS OF QPF THRU THE EVNG HOURS. MANY LOCATIONS WILL                      
PROBABLY SEE TRACE AMOUNTS AT BEST. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING                  
PCPN TO FALL AS -SHSN. INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR AFTN HOURS AS                  
WELL. MAY SEE A FEW BREAKS IN MID LVL DECK ACRS SW FCST AREA...BUT              
LITTLE TO NO SUN EXPECTED FOR AFTN. HAVE ALSO DROPPED TEMPS A GOOD              
3-5 DEG ACRS THE BOARD FROM PREV FCST HIGHS. CLOUDS ARE ONCE AGAIN              
SLOWING TEMP RISES TODAY AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE                   
DURATION OF THE AFTN WITH MOST LOCATIONS STAYING IN THE 30S. AM A               
LITTLE CONCERNED THAT EVEN WITH DROPPING TEMPS SVRL DEG MAY STILL               
BE TOO WARM. WILL MONITOR TEMP PROGRESSION INTO THE AFTN TO                     
DETERMINE IF AN ADDL UPDATE WOULD BE NEEDED.                                    
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                        
S/W IS EJECTING OUT AT BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. WEAK SFC RIDGE                  
THEN BUILDS IN FOR LATE TONIGHT.                                                
MODELS ARE IS AGREEMENT WITH THE CDFNT THAT DROPS OUT OF THE                    
PLAIN MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE ONSET OF                 
THE PCPN MONDAY AFTN...SO LOWERED POPS. CDFNT THEN PUSHES ACRS                  
THE REGION MON NGT. PREFER THE WETTER GFS. INCREASED POPS MON NGT.              
PCPN WILL START AS EITHER RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX...THEN CHANGE TO                
ALL SNOW AS THICKNESSES DROP IN. TEMPS WILL RISE A DEGREE OR TWO                
OR WILL DROP DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS ARCTIC AIR WORKS IN ACROSS               
THE LAKES. WITH -12C AIR FLOWING ACROSS THE LAKES SNOW SHOWERS                  
SHOULD CONTINUE TUE INTO TUE NGT.                                               
WENT CLOSE TO MAV GUID TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD.                                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                      
EXPECT SCT -SHSN TO CONTINUE THRU A GOOD PART OF WED AS SVRL S/WVS              
ROTATE AROUND AN UPR LVL TROF EXTNDG BACK ACRS GRT LKS FROM THE                 
POLAR VORTEX. LO LVL WIND FIELDS WILL SLOWLY VEER TO W/NW WITH LK               
EFFECT SNOW BANDS DVLPG OFF OF LK MICHIGAN AND DROPPING INTO FCST               
AREA. CONTINUING HI CHC POPS THRU THIS PERIOD...WITH POTENTIAL                  
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES WHERE SNOW BANDS              
ARE HEAVIER AND MORE PERSISTENT. COLDEST NIGHT SHOULD BE WED                    
NIGHT AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLR WITH HI PRES BUILDING IN...AS TEMPS                 
MAY DROP BELOW 10F.                                                             
UPR RIDGE THEN BUILDS INTO REGION AS STRONG SFC HI PASSES TO THE                
SOUTH OF THE REGION. SRLY FLO WILL DVLP BY FRI ON BACK SIDE OF SFC              
HI...BRINGING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. SFC LO WILL             
PASS TO NW OF THE REGION FRI NIGHT AND SAT...AND MAY BRING SOME                 
LIGHT PRECIP TO THE FCST AREA. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUING TO SHOW               
THAT WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE BEYOND THE EXTENDED WITH STRONG UPR            
RIDGE ANCHORED TO SE OF REGION.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
PLENTY OF CLOUDS STREAMING THRU REGION AHEAD OF MID LVL S/WV. S/WV              
WILL LIFT INTO GRT LKS THIS EVNG...POSSIBLY PRODUCING A FEW                     
FLURRIES AT KDAY. CURRENT RUC ANALYSIS INDCG MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE                
THE BEST HANDLE ON BNDRY LYR MOISTURE FOR THE AFTN HOURS. DRIER LO              
LVL AIR COURTESY OF E/SE FLO HAS PUSHED MUCH OF THE MVFR SC WEST                
OF THE TERMINALS INTO INDIANA. THIS SHOULD HOLD FOR MUCH OF THE                 
REST OF THE AFTN BEFORE DEEPER BNDRY LYR MOISTURE SPREADS BACK IN               
AS S/WV PASSES TO THE NW. KCVG/KLUK SHOULD BE MAINLY SPARED OF THE              
BKN MVFR DECK...BUT EXPECT IT WILL AFFECT NORTHERN TERMINALS                    
DURING THE EVNG. WEAK SFC HI PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE OH VLY              
LATE TONIGHT...AND SHOULD HELP SCATTER OUT THE LOWER CLOUDS DURING              
THE SECOND HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT. EXCEPTION WILL BE IN CNTRL OH                 
WHERE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDCG MVFR CIGS MAY HOLD ALL NIGHT. MID LVL               
CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE FCST AREA FROM                
THE WEST DURING THE LATE MRNG MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM              
TO AFFECT REGION MON EVNG. VRB WINDS THIS AFTN WILL VEER TO S/SW                
TONIGHT BEHIND THE S/WV.                                                        
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.             
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...SITES                                                                
NEAR TERM...RYAN                                                                
SHORT TERM...SITES                                                              
LONG TERM...RYAN                                                                
AVIATION...RYAN                                                                 
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
1052 AM EST SAT DEC 29 2007                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD                 
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL                 
SWING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY...THEN               
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY                          
NIGHT...USHERING IN MUCH COLDER AIR.                                            
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
MSTLY CLR SKIES OVER SE FCST AREA IN DRY SLOT THIS MRNG. MVFR SC                
DECK THOUGH FILLING BACK IN ACRS WESTERN FCST AREA...AND SHOULD                 
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FCST AREA NORTH OF THE OHIO                  
RIVER FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE AFTN. 12Z RUC/NAM BOTH INDCG                   
DVLPG LO LVL INVERSION WHICH REALLY DOES NOT BEGIN TO BREAK UP                  
UNTIL LATE AFTN AS SFC HI PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM SW.                  
HAVE ADJUSTED TO MSTLY CLDY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE AFTN AS A                     
RESULT. WILL GO PTLY SUNNY WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN MORE                      
SCATTERED ACRS NRN KY AND FAR SE FCST AREA. LOWERED AFTN HIGHS                  
ACRS NRN 1/2 FCST AREA AS TEMPS WILL PROBABLY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB                 
MUCH FURTHER THAN 5-6 DEG DUE TO PRESENCE OF SC DECK. FURTHER                   
SOUTH WHERE SUN HAS BEEN REALIZED THIS MRNG AND TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED              
INTO THE L40S...BUMPED UP TEMPS A FEW DEG FROM PREV FCST.                       
ZONE AND GRID FCST UPDATES ALREADY OUT.                                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...                               
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL                
AFFECT THE REGION IN FAST H5 FLOW. MODELS SWING AN H5 S/W ACROSS                
THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUN. CONSENSUS OF MODELS INDICATES THAT SOME                 
LIGHT PCPN WILL BE PRODUCED ACROSS THE REGION. THE NAM IS THE                   
OUTLIER...LEAVING THE REGION DRY. ADDED A 20 POPS TO THE NW 1/3                 
OF THE FA. CLIPPER DIVES THRU THE LAKES ON MONDAY...PUSHING CDFNT               
INTO ERN INDIANA BY END OF PERIOD. AHEAD OF FNT...MODELS ARE                    
PRINTING OFF SOME LIGHT QPF.                                                    
GENERALLY WENT CLOSE TO THE WARMER MAV TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD.                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                     
ARCTIC FRONT PUSH THRU THE FA MONDAY NIGHT. AS IT DOES THICKNESSES              
DROP RAPIDLY AND RAIN WILL CHANCE TO SNOW SHOWERS. UPPED POPS TO                
LIKELY. WITH STRONG CAA ACROSS LAKES DONT SEE WHY THERE WOULDNT BE              
GOOD COVERAGE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS.                                              
STRONG NW CAA CONTINUES INTO TUE AND WED. WAS TEMPTED IN GOING                  
LIKELY WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS...BUT JUST KEPT THINGS IN THE HIGH                 
CHANCE RANGE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THU CUTTING OF THE CAA.                   
KEPT TEMPS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS NUMBERS...WHICH WERE A LITTLE COOLER               
THAN THE NEW MEX MOS.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                   
STRATUS DECK AOB 2KFT NOTED TO BE JUST NW OF KDAY. SCT-BKN DECK                 
4-5KFT ALONG AND SE OF I-71 CORRIDOR SHOULD COALESCE BACK INTO A                
STRATUS DECK AS SUNLIGHT HITS IT AND COMBINES WITH CONTINUED H8                 
CAA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SC DECK WILL LIFT THROUGH LATE                     
AFTERNOON AND THEN BREAK UP WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SERN              
1/2 OF FCST AREA MAY BE TOUGH TO GET THE SC DECK INTO THE MVFR                  
RANGE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME TODAY. BELIEVE THAT THERE                  
WILL BE ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE TO INTERACT WITH THE INSOLATION AND                
CAA TO HAVE CIGS WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED FEET OF THE 3KFT CUTOFF BTWN              
VFR AND MVFR.                                                                   
HAVE NOTED A DISTINCT CUTOFF IN THE LOWER STRATUS DECK WHERE A WNW              
COMPONENT OF THE SFC WINDS ARE BRINGING IN THE COOLER LLVL AIR.                 
WSW INFLUENCE IN THE I-71 CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY BREAK UP QUICKLY                 
THIS MORNING AS THE HIGH BUILDS TO THE SW AND THE FLOW TURNS TO                 
HAVE A NRLY VS SRLY COMPONENT. NAM12 HAS THIS NRLY COMPONENT OVER               
WRN 2/3 OF CWA BY 15Z AND A CORRELATING INCREASE IN 925 RH.                     
GENERALLY EXPECTING MVFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH THE DAY TO BREAK UP                
THIS EVENING.                                                                   
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY INTO                     
TUESDAY.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...SITES                                                                
NEAR TERM...RYAN                                                                
SHORT TERM...SITES                                                              
LONG TERM...SITES                                                               
AVIATION...FRANKS                                                               
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
115 PM EST SUN DEC 30 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...AS WEAK             
HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  A STRONG              
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION EARLY TUESDAY WITH SHARPLY COLDER              
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY AND SIGNIFICANT MOUNTAIN SNOW ALONG               
THE TENNESSEE BORDER. AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE                     
ATLANTIC COAST NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM.                      
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
AT 16Z...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN CWA               
BORDER AND HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HRS. IT                
APPEARS THAT THE MILD AND HUMID AIR MASS OVER THE MIDLANDS AND                  
COASTAL PLAINS WILL NOT ADVANCE NW INTO THE FORECAST AREA. I WILL               
CODE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AS RA AND ONLY MENTION ISO TS OVER THE            
EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...COVERAGE SHOULD            
REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH 21Z. AFTER 21Z...DRY AIR SHOULD SLOWLY                 
ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. CATE COVERAGE SHOULD                
REMAIN OVER THE I-77 CORRIDOR UNTIL 0Z.                                         
I WILL POPULATE HRLY AND DWPTS TEMPS WITH OBS AND RUC 13                        
DATA...RESULTING TO STEADY TEMPS UNTIL EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE                 
CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.                                              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                            
AS OF 230 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL FLOW BRIEFLY FLATTENS OUT                 
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS MONDAY...AS A SFC LOW DEEPENS AND TRACK                
NORTHEAST OFF THE EAST COAST. AS THE LOW DEPARTS...POP DECREASES                
RAPIDLY FROM W TO E BY AROUND 2 AM MONDAY. MODEL T-SECTIONS SHOW THE            
WHOLE COLUMN OVER THE CWFA DRYING OUT...SO SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED             
MONDAY UNDER WSW FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO BE WELL ABOVE               
NORMAL (AROUND 60 PIEDMONT AND 50S MTNS).                                       
MONDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AS A                
POTENT SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE MIDWEST. LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT AHEAD OF IT            
WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SW...HOWEVER DRY. SO SKIES WILL BE                 
GENERALLY CLEAR...BUT I HAVE MIN TEMPS ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS...DUE TO             
THE WAA FLOW. A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES               
LOW IS PROGGED TO ENTER THE MTNS BY AROUND 06Z TUESDAY. SOME LOW                
LEVEL MOISTURE IS SHOWN IN THE MODELS WITH THIS...AND UPSLOPE AREAS             
MAY SEE SOME ISO/SCT SHOWERS BEFORE DAWN TUESDAY. MODEL THICKNESSES             
AND P-TYPE NOMOGRAM INDICATE THAT ANY PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE ALL SNOW.           
TUESDAY...STRONG LOW LEVEL CAA CONTINUES ACROSS THE CWFA BEHIND THE             
FRONT...AS LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NE DEEPENS AND A STRONG SFC HIGH                 
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A LULL IN               
THE 850MB WINDS (GENERALLY AFTER THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE PASSES BY).              
WITH THIS IN MIND...I DID NOT INCREASE POP FOR THIS PERIOD (LOW-MID             
CHC). 850 TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...AND                
ETA/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT ALL PRECIP IN THE MTNS WILL              
PROBABLY BE ALL SNOW. MOS TEMPS SEEM TOO HIGH IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.            
FOR NOW...I WENT WITH MET TEMPS FOR MAX TUESDAY IN THE MTNS WITH A              
BLEND ELSEWHERE.                                                                
TUESDAY NIGHT...A SECOND POTENT SHORT WAVE DIVES SOUTH OUT OF                   
CANADA...WITH DPVA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MTNS STARTING 00Z                      
WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE ADDED LIFT...LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES               
SHOW A GREAT LAKES CONNECTION WITH EVEN SOME SMALL SBCAPE. SO POP               
INCREASES TO LIKELY ALONG THE TN BORDER (WITH THE HIGHEST SNOW                  
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED). THIS IS THE MOST LIKELY TIME THAT SOME SNOW            
SHOWERS COULD BREAK CONTAINMENT...BUT I DID NOT ADD THIS TO THE                 
GRIDS AT THIS TIME. OVERALL...MIN TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE                 
DIGITS AND TEENS IN THE MTNS (LOWER TO MID 20S PIEDMONT). WIND                  
CHILLS WILL APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA AS WELL.                                 
WEDNESDAY...NW FLOW SNOW EVENT BEGINS TO WIND DOWN...AS LOW LEVELS              
BEGIN TO DRY OUT AND UPSLOPE FLOW WEAKENS. THE GFS SEEMS TO CUT OFF             
PRECIP ABRUPTLY BY 12Z. HOWEVER...I THINK THIS MAY BE TOO FAST...AND            
HAVE KEPT CHC POP IN THROUGH THE AFTN. WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES               
VERY COLD...MAX TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL (EVEN MORE              
IN THE MTNS).                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...LARGE DOME OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL                 
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE UNITED STATES ON              
THURSDAY. ATMOSPHERE WILL DRY OUT AND REMAIN STABLE THROUGH THE                 
WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC. TEMPS AND LOW                
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AS TEMPS APPROACH THE 60            
DEGREE MARK...WHILE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY AND                   
UNIFORM OVER THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. BOTH NEW RUNS OF THE            
GFS AND ECMWF ARE COMPARABLE WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE                
RIDGE AND ITS LONGEVITY...HOWEVER THE EUROPEAN MODEL DOES WEAKEN THE            
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
AT 1810Z...RADAR DETECTED WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS              
AND PIEDMONT WITH PATCHES OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE MTNS. SFC OBS               
INDICATE THAT CONDITIONS RANGE FROM IFR TO MVFR UNDER THE                       
PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO IFR-LIFR WEST OF THE RAINFALL. FORECAST                 
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT DRYING THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE MAY NOT OCCUR             
UNTIL 0-3Z. THEREFORE...CONDITIONS MAY REMAIN LIMITED ACROSS THE                
WESTERN CAROLINAS UNTIL THIS EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE              
TO DRY FROM THE TOP DOWN...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN NO CEILING BY 6Z.              
BY SUNRISE...WINDS MAY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND SKY AND VIS             
WILL BE UNLIMITED.                                                              
AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. GUSTY                
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY...AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND             
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS MAY AFFECT KAVL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH                   
WEDNESDAY.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...ARK                                                                  
NEAR TERM...NED                                                                 
SHORT TERM...ARK                                                                
LONG TERM...JPT                                                                 
AVIATION...NED                                                                  
</pre> sc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1133 AM EST SUN DEC 30 2007                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN OF THE CAROLINAS               
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT.             
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY SETTLES IN MONDAY...BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT            
TRACKS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY EARLY TUESDAY. COLD HIGH                 
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL            
TROUGH PASSING THROUGH OUR REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.                     
SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE TENNESSEE                
BORDER TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                                       
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
AT 16Z...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN CWA               
BORDER AND HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HRS. IT                
APPEARS THAT THE MILD AND HUMID AIR MASS OVER THE MIDLANDS AND                  
COASTAL PLAINS WILL NOT ADVANCE NW INTO THE FORECAST AREA. I WILL               
CODE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AS RA AND ONLY MENTION ISO TS OVER THE            
EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...COVERAGE SHOULD            
REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH 21Z. AFTER 21Z...DRY AIR SHOULD SLOWLY                 
ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. CATE COVERAGE SHOULD                
REMAIN OVER THE I-77 CORRIDOR UNTIL 0Z.                                         
I WILL POPULATE HRLY AND DWPTS TEMPS WITH OBS AND RUC 13                        
DATA...RESULTING TO STEADY TEMPS UNTIL EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE                 
CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.                                              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                            
AS OF 230 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL FLOW BRIEFLY FLATTENS OUT                 
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS MONDAY...AS A SFC LOW DEEPENS AND TRACK                
NORTHEAST OFF THE EAST COAST. AS THE LOW DEPARTS...POP DECREASES                
RAPIDLY FROM W TO E BY AROUND 2 AM MONDAY. MODEL T-SECTIONS SHOW THE            
WHOLE COLUMN OVER THE CWFA DRYING OUT...SO SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED             
MONDAY UNDER WSW FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO BE WELL ABOVE               
NORMAL (AROUND 60 PIEDMONT AND 50S MTNS).                                       
MONDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AS A                
POTENT SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE MIDWEST. LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT AHEAD OF IT            
WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SW...HOWEVER DRY. SO SKIES WILL BE                 
GENERALLY CLEAR...BUT I HAVE MIN TEMPS ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS...DUE TO             
THE WAA FLOW. A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES               
LOW IS PROGGED TO ENTER THE MTNS BY AROUND 06Z TUESDAY. SOME LOW                
LEVEL MOISTURE IS SHOWN IN THE MODELS WITH THIS...AND UPSLOPE AREAS             
MAY SEE SOME ISO/SCT SHOWERS BEFORE DAWN TUESDAY. MODEL THICKNESSES             
AND P-TYPE NOMOGRAM INDICATE THAT ANY PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE ALL SNOW.           
TUESDAY...STRONG LOW LEVEL CAA CONTINUES ACROSS THE CWFA BEHIND THE             
FRONT...AS LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NE DEEPENS AND A STRONG SFC HIGH                 
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A LULL IN               
THE 850MB WINDS (GENERALLY AFTER THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE PASSES BY).              
WITH THIS IN MIND...I DID NOT INCREASE POP FOR THIS PERIOD (LOW-MID             
CHC). 850 TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...AND                
ETA/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT ALL PRECIP IN THE MTNS WILL              
PROBABLY BE ALL SNOW. MOS TEMPS SEEM TOO HIGH IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.            
FOR NOW...I WENT WITH MET TEMPS FOR MAX TUESDAY IN THE MTNS WITH A              
BLEND ELSEWHERE.                                                                
TUESDAY NIGHT...A SECOND POTENT SHORT WAVE DIVES SOUTH OUT OF                   
CANADA...WITH DPVA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MTNS STARTING 00Z                      
WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE ADDED LIFT...LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES               
SHOW A GREAT LAKES CONNECTION WITH EVEN SOME SMALL SBCAPE. SO POP               
INCREASES TO LIKELY ALONG THE TN BORDER (WITH THE HIGHEST SNOW                  
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED). THIS IS THE MOST LIKELY TIME THAT SOME SNOW            
SHOWERS COULD BREAK CONTAINMENT...BUT I DID NOT ADD THIS TO THE                 
GRIDS AT THIS TIME. OVERALL...MIN TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE                 
DIGITS AND TEENS IN THE MTNS (LOWER TO MID 20S PIEDMONT). WIND                  
CHILLS WILL APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA AS WELL.                                 
WEDNESDAY...NW FLOW SNOW EVENT BEGINS TO WIND DOWN...AS LOW LEVELS              
BEGIN TO DRY OUT AND UPSLOPE FLOW WEAKENS. THE GFS SEEMS TO CUT OFF             
PRECIP ABRUPTLY BY 12Z. HOWEVER...I THINK THIS MAY BE TOO FAST...AND            
HAVE KEPT CHC POP IN THROUGH THE AFTN. WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES               
VERY COLD...MAX TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL (EVEN MORE              
IN THE MTNS).                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...LARGE DOME OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL                 
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE UNITED STATES ON              
THURSDAY. ATMOSPHERE WILL DRY OUT AND REMAIN STABLE THROUGH THE                 
WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC. TEMPS AND LOW                
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AS TEMPS APPROACH THE 60            
DEGREE MARK...WHILE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY AND                   
UNIFORM OVER THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. BOTH NEW RUNS OF THE            
GFS AND ECMWF ARE COMPARABLE WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE                
RIDGE AND ITS LONGEVITY...HOWEVER THE EUROPEAN MODEL DOES WEAKEN THE            
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
AVIATION FORECAST A BIT LIKE TRYING TO HIT A MOVING TARGET AT THE               
CURRENT TIME...WITH LARGE PRECIP SHIELD ADVANCING QUICKLY ACROSS N              
GA AND INTO THE WRN CAROLINAS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE. THE             
TAFS WILL GO OUT WITH A TREND TOWARD LOW MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR                 
VISBY BY 13Z TO 14Z FROM SW TO NE AND AMENDMENTS WILL BE MADE AS                
NECESSARY. IFR CEILINGS APPEAR LESS LIKELY DURING THE DAYLIGHT BUT A            
TEMPO WILL STILL BE INCLUDED THROUGH NOON AT THE SITES OUTSIDE THE              
MOUNTAINS. THE PRECIP SHOULD MOVE OUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH               
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE 23Z TO 02Z TIME FRAME. A PERIOD              
OF MVFR FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING GIVEN THE AMT OF                   
RAINFALL EXPECTED...BUT THIS DETAIL WILL NOT BE INCLUDED YET.                   
CLEARING SHOULD HAPPEN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.                    
AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY                
NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY...AND MOUNTAIN SNOW            
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS MAY AFFECT KAVL TUESDAY NIGHT               
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...ARK                                                                  
NEAR TERM...NED                                                                 
SHORT TERM...ARK                                                                
LONG TERM...JPT                                                                 
AVIATION...PM                                                                   
</pre> sc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
826 PM CST SAT DEC 29 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN CONCERN IS THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AND THE EFFECTS THIS WILL                
HAVE ON TEMPERATURES.  APPEARS THAT THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS HAS            
NOW MOVED EAST OF THE JAMES VALLEY AND IS VERY CLOSE TO I90. IN                 
ADDITION...WEAK SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA IS HELPING TO ADVECT             
COLDER AIR UNDER THE CLOUDS SO THAT PLACES LIKE MHE...FSD AND SPW               
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN SEVERAL DEGREES. EXPECT THAT THE LOW CLOUDS WILL            
RETREAT A BIT MORE TONIGHT AND GENERALLY BE OVER SW MN AND EAST                 
CENTRAL SD. JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CLOUDS THERE WILL BE A BAND OF             
FOG WITH VSBYS BELOW 1 SM AT TIMES WHERE DEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE                   
RESIDES AND COOLING OCCURS. INTERESTINGLY...WITH TEMPS BELOW                    
14F/-10C...SOME ICE CRYSTALS/SNOW ARE FALLING OUT OF THE FOG AROUND             
FSD AND WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF THERE ARE VERY LOCALIZED FLURRIES              
IN THE DENSER FOG ONCE TEMPS FALL TO NEAR 10F/-12C.                             
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG                
SOUTH OF I90. THIS WILL REALLY SET UP A CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES.               
ALREADY YANKTON...VERMILLION...AND A LARGE PORTION OF NW IOWA IS                
BELOW 10F WITH DEW POINTS NEAR ZERO. WITH ONLY LIGHT SE FLOW...SEE              
NO REASON TEMPS WON`T FALL TO NEAR ZERO WITH BELOW ZERO IN RIVER                
VALLEYS AND OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS. ALSO EXPECT THAT ALONG I90 FROM               
9V9 TO LYV AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN NW IA...TEMPS            
WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. ONLY PORTIONS OF SW MN WILL LIKELY            
STAY...AS WELL AS AROUND 9V9...WILL STAY ABOVE 10 F EITHER BECAUSE              
OF LOW CLODUS OR BECAUSE OF INCREASING SE FLOW AIDING IN SOME MIXING.           
DID SLOW THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS TONIGHT IN THE SRN CWA ALTHOUGH THE             
18Z NAM SUGGESTS THAT CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO REFORM IN NW IA TOWARD             
DAWN. NEW GRIDS AND PFM AVAILABLE AND UPDATED ZFP SHOULD BE                     
AVAILABLE BY 0240Z.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WIDE VARIATION IN CEILINGS AND VSBYS ACROSS CWA THIS EVENING. LOW               
CLDS AND FOG CLEARED OUT OF THE KSUX AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND HAVE             
SINCE CLEARED KHON THIS EVENING. IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AT KFSD AT                  
02Z...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOW PRECIPITATING OUT AS LIGHT SNOW IN             
THE FSD AREA. SO APPEARS LIFR CONDS PROBABLY WILL NOT BLANKET THE               
TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.  RATHER...ONCE MID CLDS MOVE THRU...WILL HAVE              
POTENTIAL FOR RADITATION FOG AFTER 09Z AT KHON AND PROBABLY CLOSER              
TO 11Z KSUX AREA...WITH VSBYS DOWN TO AROUND 2 MILES IN BR. STRATUS             
MAY FORM AROUND SUNRISE AT THESE LOCATIONS...AND IF IT DOES...WILL              
BE SLOW TO MIX OUT WITH STRONG INVERSION AND WEAK MIXING GRADIENT               
THRU MID DAY SUNDAY.  KFSD HAS BEST CHANCE FOR CIGS AND VSBY IN THE             
IFR CATEGORY THRU SUNDAY...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD LATER THIS              
EVENING WHERE KFSD BREAKS OUT TO VFR FOR AWHILE BEFORE GOING BACK               
DOWN.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
A COUPLE CHALLENGES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FIRST IS WITH THE                 
EXTENT OF STRATUS CLEARING IN THE SRN AND WRN CWA. ACROSS NW                    
IW...STATUS/FOG HAVE BEEN SLOWLY LIFTING NWRN AT AROUND 6 KTS                   
THROUGH THE DAY...BUT ACCORDING TO RUC AND NAM 950 MB RH FIELDS...              
THE CLEARING SHOULD CHECK UP BY EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH THE NRN               
EXTENT OF CLEARING ON A E/W LINE ROUGHLY AROUND SPENCER IOWA. S OF              
THIS AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY DROP THIS EVENING AND FOG WILL            
LIKELY FORM...AND COULD BECOME DENSE IN PLACES BY LATE THIS EVENING.            
TOUGH TO TELL THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE                  
STRATUS IN CENTRAL SD BASED ON SATELLITE...BUT DOES APPEAR CLEARING             
LINE IS ALMOST TO MHE. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR STEADY WHERE                 
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND DROP TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT               
ELSEWHERE. SHOULD SEE A 25 TO 30 DEGREE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE IN               
LOWS FROM CLEAR SKIES TO PLACES WITH CLOUD COVER. EXPECTING FOG                 
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...EVEN WHERE STRATUS HOLDS  COULD SEE                    
CEILINGS DROP TO THE SFC LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY SINCE WARM AIR              
ADVECTION WILL PERSIST. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG IN                 
THESE AREAS AS WELL...WITH VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE                
QUARTER MILE. ACTUALLY A THIN BAND OF QUARTER MILE VISIBILITIES HAS             
CONTINUED THROUGH THE DAY OF OVER PORTIONS OF NW IA...WHILE SLOWLY              
DRIFTING N. ONCE DAYTIME HEATING IS NOT LONGER A FACTOR...SHOULD SEE            
VISIBILITIES IN THIS AREA DROP...AND EVENTUALLY SPREAD TO ADJACENT              
AREAS.                                                                          
SUNDAY WILL SEE MORE CONCERNS WITH STRATUS AND FOG IN THE                       
MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST DAY WITH FOG ISSUES AS A                  
STRONG COLD FRONT IS POISED TO MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY MORNING. WILL             
BACK OFF ON POPS UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AS SUNDAY LOOKS A LITTLE DRY IN             
THE MID LEVELS AND EVEN THOUGH UPPER LEVEL FORCING SPRINTS INTO THE             
SOUTHERN CWA BY ABOUT 21Z...WE SHOULD HAVE SOME DRY AIR TO OVERCOME.            
FOR THE SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...STARTING TO LOOK              
LIKE BETTER FORCUS COULD END UP A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH...POSSIBLY               
NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER. BOTH THE LATEST NAM AND GFS AGREE THAT BEST            
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT VIA THE 300-500MB DIV Q AND PV ANOMALY PLACEMENT            
SUPPORT THE SOUTHERN CWA AND WITH A WEAK THERMAL STRUCTURE TO THE               
SYSTEM...MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION PROCESS SHOULD BE DRIVEN BY THE              
UPPER LEVELS. BEST THERMAL BANDING APPEARS TO OCCUR FROM ABOUT                  
650-600MB AND THIS BOUNDARY LAYS OUT WEST TO EAST ACROSS FAR                    
SOUTHERN CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AS JET STREAK PASSES SOUTH. ALSO OF                   
INTEREST IS THAT THIS SYSTEM DOES POSSES A LITTLE INSTABILITY WITH              
700-500MB LAPSE RATES RUNNING ABOUT 7-7.5 C/KM AND 750MB LI`S                   
RUNNING RIGHT AROUND 2-3 C. REGARDLESS...WILL NOT INCREASE POPS AS              
PLACEMENT OF WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A RELATIVELY SMALL BAND STILL                  
UNCERTAIN.                                                                      
WILL LEAVE A SMALL POP IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS FINAL LITTLE CHUNK OF             
ENERGY SKIRTS BY AS COLDEST AIR SINKS SOUTH. ALSO SOME CONCERN ABOUT            
BLOWING SNOW WITH FLUFFY STUFF ALREADY ON THE GROUND AND WINDS                  
INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH...BUT AT THIS TIME...WITH WINDS GENERALLY            
BELOW 30 MPH...A BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY DOES NOT SEEM IMMENENT.                  
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...LOTS OF NON-DIURNAL TO WORK WITH WITH LITTLE              
OR NO FALL WITHIN STRATUS AND RAPID FALLS OUTSIDE. WILL ALSO SEE                
COLD AIR SINKING IN ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS EARLY IN THE DAY THEN                  
FALLING. WENT FOR A VERY QUICK EVENING DROP ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH               
1045MB ARCTIC HIGH AND HAVE COME IN ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER                
THAN GUIDANCE FROM 0Z-6Z.                                                       
IN THE LATTER PERIODS(WED-SAT)...TAIL END OF SOUTHEAST DIVING WAVE              
WILL HAVE A COLD HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY                
MORNING OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN PART OF THE CWA. THIS WILL HAVE                
MOST LOCATIONS SUB ZERO TO START THE PERIOD...WITH STRONG RIDGING               
ALOFT AND STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE DAY                  
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK WAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER ON                
THURSDAY...WHICH COULD DRAG A WEAK BACK DOOR COOL FRONT DOWN ON                 
THURSDAY. THIS NOT SHOWING UP IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS YET               
AND AT THIS TIME WILL JUST BE SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR. AFTER                     
THIS...WEST COAST TROF PUSHES INTO THE ROCKIES WITH A SERIES OF WEAK            
WAVES POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. NOT MUCH TO GRAB A HOLD OF              
AT THIS TIME...SO WILL NOT ADD ANY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.                     
SO...OVERALL...MILD AND DRY IN THE EXTENDED. IN FACT...IF THIS                  
PATTERN DOES VERIFY...WE WOULD HAVE EASILY BEEN IN THE 40S WITH NO              
SNOW COVER.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IA...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
SD...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SCHUMACHER/GH                                                                   
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
257 PM CST SAT DEC 29 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
A COUPLE CHALLENGES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FIRST IS WITH THE                 
EXTENT OF STRATUS CLEARING IN THE SRN AND WRN CWA. ACROSS NW                    
IW...STATUS/FOG HAVE BEEN SLOWLY LIFTING NWRN AT AROUND 6 KTS                   
THROUGH THE DAY...BUT ACCORDING TO RUC AND NAM 950 MB RH FIELDS...              
THE CLEARING SHOULD CHECK UP BY EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH THE NRN               
EXTENT OF CLEARING ON A E/W LINE ROUGHLY AROUND SPENCER IOWA. S OF              
THIS AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY DROP THIS EVENING AND FOG WILL            
LIKELY FORM...AND COULD BECOME DENSE IN PLACES BY LATE THIS EVENING.            
TOUGH TO TELL THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE                  
STRATUS IN CENTRAL SD BASED ON SATELLITE...BUT DOES APPEAR CLEARING             
LINE IS ALMOST TO MHE. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR STEADY WHERE                 
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND DROP TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT               
ELSEWHERE. SHOULD SEE A 25 TO 30 DEGREE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE IN               
LOWS FROM CLEAR SKIES TO PLACES WITH CLOUD COVER. EXPECTING FOG                 
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...EVEN WHERE STRATUS HOLDS  COULD SEE                    
CEILINGS DROP TO THE SFC LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY SINCE WARM AIR              
ADVECTION WILL PERSIST. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG IN                 
THESE AREAS AS WELL...WITH VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE                
QUARTER MILE. ACTUALLY A THIN BAND OF QUARTER MILE VISIBILITIES HAS             
CONTINUED THROUGH THE DAY OF OVER PORTIONS OF NW IA...WHILE SLOWLY              
DRIFTING N. ONCE DAYTIME HEATING IS NOT LONGER A FACTOR...SHOULD SEE            
VISIBILITIES IN THIS AREA DROP...AND EVENTUALLY SPREAD TO ADJACENT              
AREAS.                                                                          
SUNDAY WILL SEE MORE CONCERNS WITH STRATUS AND FOG IN THE                       
MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST DAY WITH FOG ISSUES AS A                  
STRONG COLD FRONT IS POISED TO MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY MORNING. WILL             
BACK OFF ON POPS UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AS SUNDAY LOOKS A LITTLE DRY IN             
THE MID LEVELS AND EVEN THOUGH UPPER LEVEL FORCING SPRINTS INTO THE             
SOUTHERN CWA BY ABOUT 21Z...WE SHOULD HAVE SOME DRY AIR TO OVERCOME.            
FOR THE SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...STARTING TO LOOK              
LIKE BETTER FORCUS COULD END UP A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH...POSSIBLY               
NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER. BOTH THE LATEST NAM AND GFS AGREE THAT BEST            
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT VIA THE 300-500MB DIV Q AND PV ANOMALY PLACEMENT            
SUPPORT THE SOUTHERN CWA AND WITH A WEAK THERMAL STRUCTURE TO THE               
SYSTEM...MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION PROCESS SHOULD BE DRIVEN BY THE              
UPPER LEVELS. BEST THERMAL BANDING APPEARS TO OCCUR FROM ABOUT                  
650-600MB AND THIS BOUNDARY LAYS OUT WEST TO EAST ACROSS FAR                    
SOUTHERN CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AS JET STREAK PASSES SOUTH. ALSO OF                   
INTEREST IS THAT THIS SYSTEM DOES POSSES A LITTLE INSTABILITY WITH              
700-500MB LAPSE RATES RUNNING ABOUT 7-7.5 C/KM AND 750MB LI`S                   
RUNNING RIGHT AROUND 2-3 C. REGARDLESS...WILL NOT INCREASE POPS AS              
PLACEMENT OF WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A RELATIVELY SMALL BAND STILL                  
UNCERTAIN.                                                                      
WILL LEAVE A SMALL POP IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS FINAL LITTLE CHUNK OF             
ENERGY SKIRTS BY AS COLDEST AIR SINKS SOUTH. ALSO SOME CONCERN ABOUT            
BLOWING SNOW WITH FLUFFY STUFF ALREADY ON THE GROUND AND WINDS                  
INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH...BUT AT THIS TIME...WITH WINDS GENERALLY            
BELOW 30 MPH...A BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY DOES NOT SEEM IMMENENT.                  
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...LOTS OF NON-DIURNAL TO WORK WITH WITH LITTLE              
OR NO FALL WITHIN STRATUS AND RAPID FALLS OUTSIDE. WILL ALSO SEE                
COLD AIR SINKING IN ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS EARLY IN THE DAY THEN                  
FALLING. WENT FOR A VERY QUICK EVENING DROP ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH               
1045MB ARCTIC HIGH AND HAVE COME IN ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER                
THAN GUIDANCE FROM 0Z-6Z.                                                       
IN THE LATTER PERIODS(WED-SAT)...TAIL END OF SOUTHEAST DIVING WAVE              
WILL HAVE A COLD HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY                
MORNING OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN PART OF THE CWA. THIS WILL HAVE                
MOST LOCATIONS SUB ZERO TO START THE PERIOD...WITH STRONG RIDGING               
ALOFT AND STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE DAY                  
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK WAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER ON                
THURSDAY...WHICH COULD DRAG A WEAK BACK DOOR COOL FRONT DOWN ON                 
THURSDAY. THIS NOT SHOWING UP IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS YET               
AND AT THIS TIME WILL JUST BE SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR. AFTER                     
THIS...WEST COAST TROF PUSHES INTO THE ROCKIES WITH A SERIES OF WEAK            
WAVES POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. NOT MUCH TO GRAB A HOLD OF              
AT THIS TIME...SO WILL NOT ADD ANY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.                     
SO...OVERALL...MILD AND DRY IN THE EXTENDED. IN FACT...IF THIS                  
PATTERN DOES VERIFY...WE WOULD HAVE EASILY BEEN IN THE 40S WITH NO              
SNOW COVER.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE A PROBLEM TONIGHT AND INTO                    
TOMORROW. LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED AT SUX BUT LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW             
FOR FOG TO FORM AGAIN THIS EVENING. WILL LIKELY SEE VISIBILITIES                
DROP TO A QUARTER MILE BY LATE THIS EVENING. FOR FSD...LOW STRATUS              
IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE WITH CEILINGS REMAINING BELOW 1000 FT...AND               
COULD SEE CEILINGS DROP TO BELOW 300 FT LATER TONIGHT AND                       
VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1 SM. HON IS MORE QUESTIONABLE AS TO WHETHER             
OR NOT STRATUS WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING OR NOT...EITHER WAY SHOULD               
SEE LIFR CONDITIONS BY LATER TONIGHT DUE TO FOG OR STRATUS DRIFTING             
BACK INTO THE JAMES VALLEY.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IA...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
SD...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LIEBL/08                                                                        
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION UPDATED                                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT                                      
352 PM AM MST SUN DEC 30 2007                                                   
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH ALL OF UTAH THIS EVENING            
WITH VERY COLD AIR BEHIND IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA            
MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A STRONG WARMING TREND TO              
THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHILE INVERSIONS STRENGTHEN              
IN THE VALLEYS. A SERIES OF PACIFIC STORMS WILL RETURN FOR LATE IN              
THE WEEK.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED SOUTH INTO CENTRAL UTAH            
WITH MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE LAGGING BEHIND. RADAR TREND IS                   
DECREASING AND SHIFTING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.              
SNOW WAS HEAVY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES UP TO 600             
MB AND MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW. 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RATES IN THE SL             
VALLEY AT THE PEAK AND 2 TO 3 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS.                          
RADAR DEPICTING SNOW SHOWERS INCREASING ACROSS THE IDAHO BORDER                 
PAST HOUR...THIS WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH THIS                 
EVENING. COLD POOL ALOFT...500 MB...REMAINS TO THE NORTH IN IDAHO               
AND IS CREATING A STRONG JET CORE ALONG THE IDAHO BORDER. NAM/GFS               
AND RUC SAG THIS GRADIENT SOUTHWARD SO WE COOL FROM -24C AT SLC                 
NOW...TO -28C THIS EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME COOLING CONTINUES BELOW            
WITH -17C AT 700 MB BY LATE EVENING. THUS STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL                
CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH THE INVERSION BASE PROGGED TO RISE UP TO             
600 MB BEFORE LOWERING AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN THE UPPER JET                  
STREAK BEGINS TO EXIT AND THE THERMAL GRADIENT AT 500 MB LEVEL                  
SLOWLY RETREATS NORTHWARD. THE WAVE ALONG THIS GRADIENT SHOULD                  
REDEVELOP SNOW EARLY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE TERRAIN                
WHERE NORTHWEST FLOW UPSLOPE FORCING WILL PERSIST FROM THE WASATCH              
PLATEAU NEAR MT PLEASANT NORTHWARD TO THE BEAR RIVER RANGE. THERE IS            
ALSO A WINDOW FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT OR EVEN A BAND THIS EVENING                  
WITHIN UNIFORM NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AS THE VERY              
COLD AIR MASS FILTERS ACROSS THE GSL.                                           
COLD AIR SETTLES ACROSS UTAH WITH -18C ISOTHERM LINGERING INTO                  
MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A VERY               
COLD DAY FOLLOWED BY BITTER COLD NIGHT AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. NAM              
AND GFS DISPLAY A 1052 MB SURFACE HIGH SETTLING OVER WYOMING. THIS              
SHOULD BE OUR COLDEST PERIOD SO FAR THIS YEAR FOR MANY PLACES AND               
EVEN BELOW ZERO POSSIBLE FOR SLC AT NIGHT. STRONG UPPER RIDGE RIDES             
OVER THE COLD DOME AND WARM 700 MB AIR TO 0C BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN            
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW...LEADING TO STRONG INVERSION OVER SNOW COVERED            
VALLEYS.                                                                        
THIS UPPER RIDGE IS SHORT LIVED AND MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG                     
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. 55 KNOTS OF MOIST            
ADVECTION AT 700 MB FORECAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WRN               
PTN OF UT. STRONG SOUTHERLY MILD FLOW AND TRAPPED COLD AIR WILL                 
CREATE NORTHERN VALLEY PTYPE ISSUES BUT LIKELY ALL SNOW FOR                     
NORTHEAST VALLEYS LIKE UINTA BASIN. SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX OUT THE               
WESTERN VALLEYS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN PROGGED FLOW AND                    
PRESSURE GRADIENT. LARGE EPAC TROF SENDS A WAVE ACROSS THE GREAT                
BASIN THURSDAY NGT INTO FRIDAY...AND THEN ANOTHER WAVE AND COLD                 
FRONT SATURDAY AFTN INTO SUNDAY. ECMWF STRONGER WITH THE SECOND WAVE            
THAN THE GFS. GFS ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS SMALL FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH                
SPREAD DEVELOPING NOT UNTIL THE FINAL WAVE. THIS DEEP UPPER TROUGH              
ADVERTISED TO DIG ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT            
THRU UT BY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MON. A STATEWIDE EVENT DUE TO THE               
INITIALLY WAVE TAKING A DIRECT HIT AND THE FINAL SYSTEM DIGGING FAR             
SOUTH. RATHER HIGH CHANCES IN THE GRIDS WITH LIKELY VALUES IN THE               
MOUNTAINS.                                                                      
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT HAS LATEST SNOWFALL TOTALS.                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF               
SLC TERMINAL BETWEEN 03Z AND 07Z THIS EVENING WITH A 30 PERCENT                 
CHANCE OF SNOW DIRECTLY IMPACTING THE TERMINAL WITH MVFR OR IFR                 
CONDITIONS. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT WINDS COULD SHIFT TO              
THE SOUTHEAST AS EARLY AS 04Z DUE TO HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS BANKED UP             
AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF SLC.                                              
&&                                                                              
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UT...WINTER STORM WARNING NRN WASATCH MTS UNTIL 11 PM...UTZ007.                 
  ...HEAVY SNOW WARNING WASATCH MT VLYS UNTIL 9 PM...UTZ006.                    
  ...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE SRN WASATCH WRN UINTA               
      AND CENTRAL MTS UNTIL 11 PM...UTZ008-009-517.                             
  ...SNOW ADVISORY FOR NRN WASATCH FRONT UNTIL 11 PM UTZ002.                    
  ...SNOW ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL AND SRN WASATCH FRONT UNTIL 11 PM...             
      UTZ003-004.                                                               
WY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TARDY                                                                           
AVIATION...SCHOENING                                                            
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...              
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)                                
</pre> ut                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
845 PM CST SAT DEC 29 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED BACK EDGE OF                
STRATUS OVER IOWA AND NORTHWEST IL WAS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THIS                
EVENING. LATEST 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY...ALONG WITH                    
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...INDICATED FOG AND STRATUS WAS FILLING BACK               
IN OVER NORTHEAST IOWA WHERE AIR HAD COOLED QUICKLY AND                         
SATURATED. IN ADDITION...PROFILERS AT BLUE RIVER WI AND SLATER                  
IOWA INDICATED 15-25KT 925MB SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH WOULD                   
SUPPORT STRATUS REDEVELOPING PER UPS FOG STUDY.                                 
LATEST RUC AND 00Z 30DEC07 NAM/WRF INDICATED MOISTURE-LADEN                     
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA                  
TONIGHT. THUS...EVEN IF STRATUS CLEARS OVER PARTS OF THE                        
AREA...ADDITIONAL FOG AND/OR STRATUS SHOULD DEVELOP BACK IN...AS                
EVIDENCED BY CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA.                          
THEREFORE...PLAN TO CONTINUE WITH SPIRIT OF CURRENT                             
FORECAST...WHICH SUGGESTS CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN                
DURING THE NIGHT. ONLY ADDITION TO DATA BASE WAS TO ADD AREAS OF                
DENSE FOG ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WI. PLAN                 
TO UPDATE ZONES BY 0330Z THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY TO INCORPORATE                
AFOREMENTIONED ADDITION OF DENSE FOG.                                           
&&                                                                              
THOMPSON                                                                        
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CST SAT DEC 29 2007/                         
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT                                      
FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE...CLOUDS/TEMPERATURES AND SMALL                  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TROUGH THE PERIOD.                                        
18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID/                
LOWER MS VALLEY AND LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MT. VIS/FOG-PRODUCT              
IMAGERY AND SFC OBS INDICATED A BROAD AREA OF LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS                
ACROSS MUCH OF MN/WI/IA. WITH A WEAK SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN               
THE HIGH/LOW...SOME CLEARING WAS PUSHING SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE                
SOUTHWEST HALF OF IA. VIS IMAGERY ALSO SHOWED THE SNOW COVER                    
EXTENDED SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MO TO THE TX PANHANDLE AND WEST TO THE             
FRONT RANGE OF CO/WY. THE WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME WEAK 850MB               
WARM ADVECTION IN AND JUST ABOVE THE MOIST LOW LEVEL WERE PRODUCING             
A BROAD BAND OF -SN/FLURRIES ACROSS CENTRAL MN INTO CENTRAL WI.                 
29/12Z NAM/GFS LOOK TO HAVE INITIALIZED QUITE WELL AND PRESENT                  
RATHER SIMILAR SOLUTIONS FOR TONIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. NAM DOES REMAIN            
STRONGER WITH A SFC LOW ACROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MON. DPROG/DT OF            
500MB HGTS AT 29/12Z SHOWED THE NAM/GFS RUNS OF 27/12Z AND 28/12Z               
VERIFIED QUITE WELL ACROSS NOAM WITH SLIGHT EDGE AND BETTER RUN-TO-             
RUN CONSISTENCY TO GFS. THRU 36HRS TREND IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE               
SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY BY 00Z MON. THRU 84HRS                
TREND LOOKS TO BE A SLIGHTLY STRONGER/SLOWER SOLUTION WITH THE NEXT             
SHORTWAVE INTO THE MID MS VALLEY ON MON /TREND TOWARD 28/12Z NAM/...            
AND WITH THE 3RD WAVE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUE /TOWARD 28/12Z GFS/.             
CHECK OF OBS VS. MODEL DATA AT 18Z SHOWED NAM/GFS REASONABLE WITH               
THE SFC MASS FIELDS ACROSS CENTRAL NOAM. PER WV IMAGERY...BOTH                  
MODELS LOOKED TO HAVE DECENT DEPICTIONS OF THE SHORTWAVE FEATURES               
ACROSS NOAM/EASTERN PAC...WITH PERHAPS SLIGHT EDGE TO GFS. WITH GFS             
SHOWING THE BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY...A BIT BETTER WITH                   
SHORTWAVE DETAILS AT 18Z AND NAM TRENDING TOWARD ITS SOLUTION                   
/ESPECIALLY WITH THE MONDAY SYSTEM/ FAVORED IT/S SOLUTION. FORECAST             
CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TERM AVERAGE TO GOOD THIS CYCLE.                        
FOR THE SHORT TERM...WEAK 850MB WARM ADVECTION PERSISTS TONIGHT.                
SOUNDINGS AND X-SECTIONS INDICATE SOME DECREASE OF THE DEPTH OF                 
MOISTURE THRU THE NIGHT...BUT THIS LOOKS OFF-SET BY SOME WEAK 700MB             
WARM ADVECTION SPREADING INTO THE AREA. TEMP AT THE TOP OF MOIST                
LAYER REMAINS AROUND -10C. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD -FZDZ/FLURRY                   
MENTION TONIGHT AND LEFT THIS AS IS. BIGGER QUESTION IS WILL THE                
CLEARING MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTH END OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.               
WITH THE SNOW COVER AND COOLING...ALONG WITH THE DEEPER WARM                    
ADVECTION OVER THE TOP OF THIS LAYER...CLEARING MAY BRIEFLY MAKE IT             
INTO THE SOUTHWEST END OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE MORE CLOUDS                  
REDEVELOP. -SN/-FZDZ THREAT CONTINUES ON SUN WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER             
850-700MB WARM ADVECTION OVER/IN THE TOP OF THE MOIST LAYER.                    
CONFINED -SN CHANCE AND SMALL BUT HIGHER POP ACROSS THE NORTH PART              
OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT DEEPER. FOR SUN               
NIGHT THRU TUE THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SLIDE ACROSS OR JUST                    
SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME-HGT X-                 
SECTIONS INDICATE AN INCREASED DEPTH OF MOISTURE AS THESE SHORTWAVE             
PASS. THIS AS THE STRENGTH/DEPTH OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW INCREASES AND             
THE AIRMASS SLOWLY COOLS. THIS WITH SOME PV ADVECTION AND 700-300MB             
QG CONVERGENCE WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVES. GFS WETTER IN THE MID/              
UPPER LEVELS WITH THESE FEATURES THAN NAM...AND PRODUCES MORE LIGHT             
QPF ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE SUN NIGHT THRU TUE TIME-FRAME.              
FAVORING THE MORE MOIST GFS FOR THIS TIME...ALONG WITH BROAD BUT                
GENERALLY WEAK CONVERGENCE/LIFT...-SN POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR              
SUN NIGHT/MON LOOK GOOD AND RAISED THEM INTO CHANCE RANGE FOR MON               
NIGHT/TUE. THESE CHANCES GENERALLY BLEND WELL WITH NEIGHBORING                  
GRIDS. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO DETAIL ANY PERIODS OF HIGHER -SN                 
CHANCES OR POSSIBLE ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOW ONCE TIMING OF ANY                  
SHORTWAVE OR STRONGER PERIODS OF LIFT CAN BE DETERMINED. WITH                   
PASSAGE OF THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON TUE...DEEPER SUBSIDENCE             
AND MID/UPPER LEVEL DRYING SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TUE                 
NIGHT. WAS OPTIMISTIC FOR SOME DECREASE OF CLOUDS/CLEARING TUE                  
NIGHT BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE. TIGHTER GRADIENT OVER THE AREA TUE INTO             
TUE NIGHT AS THE SFC LOW HOLDS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND                 
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEHIND THE LAST            
SHORTWAVE.                                                                      
WITH CLOUD EXPECTED TO PERSIST TONIGHT...FAVORED WARMER OF GUIDANCE             
LOWS. WITH PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS...LEANED TOWARD COOLER OF GUIDANCE             
HIGHS SUN/MON AND WARMER OF GUIDANCE LOWS SUN/MON NIGHTS. FAVORED A             
BLEND OF GFS MEX MOS AND HPC GUIDANCE FOR TUE...THEN TRENDED TOWARD             
COLDER OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TUE NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS SPREADS             
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.                                                        
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY                                          
29/00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH             
EACH OTHER AND THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS IN THE WED-SAT PERIOD. ECMWF                 
GENERALLY SHOWS THE BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. SOME LESSER                  
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE PROGRESSIVENESS OF THE EAST/WEST COAST              
TROUGHS FOR THU-SAT WITH GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN LOOKING TO BE A GOOD                 
COMPROMISE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM REMAINS AVERAGE TO             
GOOD. LONGWAVE RIDGING MOVES INTO CENTRAL NOAM BY WED. COLD CANADIAN            
SFC HIGH UNDER/EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA WED/WED            
NIGHT FOR A SEASONABLY COLD PERIOD. EVEN WITH THE AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE            
PATTERN OVER NOAM/EASTERN PAC BY MIDWEEK...IT REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AS            
STRONG ENERGY IN THE EASTERN PAC/GULF OF AK PUSHES EAST. THE SFC                
HIGH RETREATS LATER WED NIGHT/THU WITH STRONG 850-700MB WARM                    
ADVECTION SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA. MUCH OF THIS GOES INTO WARMING             
AND HGTS/RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG INVERSION             
DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA IN THE 925-850MB LAYER FOR THU INTO FRI...DUE            
TO EXPANSIVE SNOW FIELD ACROSS THE REGION. INVERSION AND THE SNOW               
COVER WILL TEMPER THE WARMUP IN THE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION FLOW               
FOR THU INTO SAT. BIGGEST QUESTION IS POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUD/                  
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AS THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST EDGES OF THE SNOW COVER              
START TO MELT AND THIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NORTH UNDER THE                     
INVERSION. THIS ESPECIALLY SO BY THU NIGHT AND BEYOND. LEFT SKY                 
GRIDS IN THE PARTLY CLOUDY RANGE FOR THU NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT FOR               
NOW. MODELS RATHER CONSISTENT IN EJECTING A STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY            
OUT OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST SAT. SMALL              
-RA/-SN CHANCE ON SAT REASONABLE FOR NOW WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH                
MOVING THRU AND SOME WARM AIR ALOFT OVER THE AREA. LEANED TOWARD                
COOLER OF GUIDANCE MAXES/MINS FOR WED THRU THU...THEN COOLER OF                 
GUIDANCE HIGHS FOR FRI/SAT WITH THE SNOW COVER AND POTENTIAL FOR LOW            
CLOUDS. POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND SOME SOUTH WINDS THU/FRI NIGHTS            
LEADS TO FAVORING WARMER OF GUIDANCE LOWS THESE PERIODS.                        
AVIATION...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY                                                   
PERSISTENCE LOOKS LIKE BEST BET RIGHT NOW WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGE               
PASSING THROUGH THE AREA AND MVFR CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE.              
WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION SPAWNED SOME LIGHT SNOW EARLIER BUT BULK OF             
THAT ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT. AS SOUTH TO             
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH RIDGE PASSAGE...EXPECT MVFR               
CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY SLIP TO IFR WITH LOWERING CEILINGS AND                  
VISIBILITIES AGAIN AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. COULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT             
TOMORROW BUT APPROACH OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY HELP GENERATE ENOUGH             
LIFT FOR SPORADIC LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL.                       
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT/LONG TERM...RRS                                                           
AVIATION..........SHEA                                                          
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY                                               
455 AM EST MON DEC 31 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND WILL RAPIDLY MOVE                
NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AS IT INTENSIFIES TODAY. A WEAK HIGH               
PRES SYSTEM WILL ADVECT E AND PASS OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING. A                
LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE OH VALLEY WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES ENE               
TOWARD THE REGION NEW YEAR`S DAY. A SECONDARY LOW IS FORECAST TO                
DEVELOP OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND TRACK NE AS A SURGE OF                    
ARCTIC AIR MOVES SSE ACROSS THE REGION WED INTO THU. THE ARCTIC                 
HIGH WILL SLOWLY MODIFY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY S OFF THE MID ATLANTIC               
COAST THROUGH SAT.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/...                                         
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM FOR NYC`S                
EXTREME NW AND N SUBURBS...FOR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF WET                        
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.                                                 
BASED ON THE NE ADVECTION OF STRONG UPPER AND MID LVL SUBSIDENCE                
ACROSS THE REGION...THE SW FRINGE OF THIS LOW/S ASSOCIATED                      
PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAS DRYED. BECAUSE THE UPPER LVL WAVE IS OPEN              
AND PROGRESSIVE...I/M NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP TO WRAP AROUND THIS              
DEVELOPING LOW AND MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH S TO AFFECT OUR REGION. WE                
MAY DECIDE TO CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EARLIER THAN 9 AM              
BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND FCST TRENDS.                                  
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                            
FOR TODAY...NEW YEAR/S EVE...A MILD AND DRY...BUT GUSTY DAY IS ON               
TAP FOR THE REGION AS A STRONG W WIND FLOW INCREASES DOWN SLOPE                 
ACROSS THE AREA...CAUSING TEMPS TO RISE TO NEAR 50 DEGS ACROSS                  
PARTS OF NYC...MILDER THAN OUR PREV FORECASTS.                                  
FOR NEW YEAR/S DAY...IT LOOKS LIKE A WET ONE ACROSS MOST OF THE                 
REGION...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY              
ACROSS ORANGE COUNTY NY.                                                        
AS AN INTENSIFYING LOW MOVES ENE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...A BRISK SE              
WIND FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND QUICKLY WARM THE SURFACE AND BOUNDARY                
LAYER ALONG THE COAST. THE UPPER LVL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS              
SYSTEM ARE FAIRLY STRONG AND UP TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN IS QUITE                    
POSSIBLE BEFORE A SECONDARY DEVELOPS LATE IN THE GAME. IT APPEARS               
THAT PRECIP WILL DEVELOP AS A WINTRY MIX OF WET SNOW...SLEET AND                
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS ORANGE COUNTY THAT COULD MEET ADVISORY                     
CRITERIA BASED ON THE INTENSITY OF THE UPSTREAM LOW. STAY TUNED.                
FOR WEDNESDAY...PREPARE FOR AN ARCTIC SURGE. THERE SHOULD BE JUST               
ENOUGH LOW LVL MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO CAUSE SCT                 
SNOW SHOWERS...SOME MODERATE BASED ON INSTABILITY PROFILES. IN                  
FACT...AS AN UPPER LVL LOW AND TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION...THIS              
COMBO MAKES SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH A 30                
PCT POP WAS INTRODUCED FOR WED...I REALLY THINK A 60 OR 70 PCT POP              
FOR SNOW SHOWERS IS MORE REALISTIC WHERE MOST AREAS WILL PICK UP                
ANYWHERE FROM A DUSTING TO 1 INCH.                                              
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                  
WIND CHILLS BECOME A PROBLEM FOR WED NIGHT...WITH VALUES                        
APPROACHING 10 TO 15 DEGS BELOW ZERO. STAY TUNED FOR A POTENTIAL                
WIND CHILL ADVISORY.                                                            
OTHERWISE...THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY THROUGH                   
FRIDAY.                                                                         
THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH...WILL BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL                  
TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS A 580-590 500              
MB HIGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SE US COAST. E MAY B DRESSING IN SHORTS                
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WEATHER ROLL A COASTER CONTS.                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
GENERALLY IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA. RUC SEEMS TO                  
HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE SITUATION...ALTHOUGH STILL A LITTLE 1               
TO 2 DEGREES TOO COLD SIDE IN THE LOW LEVELS AS COMPARED TO 05Z                 
ACARS SOUNDING AT KLGA.                                                         
ALSO NOTING THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRYING ON WV IMAGERY INTRUDING              
INTO DELAWARE WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO THE DEEP MOISTURE AND                  
CHANGE RAIN TO DRIZZLE. THINK THIS WILL OCCUR IN THE NEXT 3 TO 4                
HOURS...POSSIBLY A FEW HOURS LATER AT KGON.                                     
WATCHING SFC TEMPS ACROSS INTERIOR LOCATIONS...KSWF HAS BEEN                    
RIGHT AT THE FREEZING MARK THE LAST FEW HOURS AND IT SHOULD HOLD                
HERE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WHICH WOULD KEEP -FZRA THE                  
DOMINANT P-TYPE BEFORE CHANGING TO -FZDZ. HOWEVER...COULD SEE                   
SOME SNOW MIX IN AS THE COLUMN COOLS BETWEEN NOW AND 09Z. SAME                  
GOES FOR KHPN. ALL OTHER TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN PLAIN RAIN/DRIZZLE.            
THAT SAID...EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL UNTIL AROUND 12Z.                  
COULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT BACK TO MVFR BETWEEN 10 AND 12Z. ALL                 
PRECIP SHOULD COME TO AN END BY 12/13Z WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING                
BACK TO VFR AND ONLY GUSTY W/NW LEFT TO CONTEND WITH.                           
E/NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO THE N THEN NW AS THE COASTAL                  
LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING.                
SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 12 AND 17 KT WITH GUSTS                    
BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KT AFTER 15Z. GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE EARLY IN THE               
EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z.                                
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR REMAINS THROUGH                  
MONDAY NIGHT. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN LIKELY TUESDAY AND                   
TUESDAY EVENING AS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT PASS                   
ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN NEAR THE COAST...RAIN/SNOW INTERIOR. THIS                 
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY GUSTY W-NW FLOW LATER TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AS              
THE OFFSHORE LOW INTENSIFIES AND DRAWS DOWN ARCTIC AIR. LIGHT SNOW              
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY...OTHERWISE DRY.              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                                      
WINDS HAVE INCREASED AS THE LOW HAS NEARED THE WATERS. EXPECT THE               
WINDS TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS AS LOW                 
PRESSURE AND LOW LEVEL JET PASSES TO THE EAST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY             
REMAINS UP FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...AND WILL KEEP OTHER HEADLINES AS              
THEY ARE EVEN THOUGH WINDS ARE CURRENTLY QUITE CLOSE TO CRITERIA.               
AGAIN...WINDS WILL DIMINISH...THEN INCREASE IN WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND             
DEPARTING LOW LATER THIS MORNING.                                               
WINDS DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE            
BUILDS. THEN NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST TO THE NORTH OF              
THE WATERS TUESDAY...AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH. STRONG WEST                
FLOW BEHIND THIS LOW/FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. ARCTIC FRONT PIVOTS AROUND            
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WEDNESDAY...AND STRONG WEST WINDS TURN TO THE               
NORTHWEST AND REMAIN EQUALLY STRONG.                                            
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...                                         
WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LOW LEVEL CAA/INSTABILITY BEHIND               
THIS FRONT...EXPECT STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS TO PREVAIL INTO THURSDAY.            
GALES QUITE POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AND CONDITIONS IMPROVE               
THU NIGHT AND FRI. HIGH PRES PASSES TO THE SOUTH FRI NIGHT...AND                
WINDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
THE NEXT SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE UP TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN DURING NEW                 
YEAR/S DAY.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.EQUIPMENT...                                                                   
KOKX WSR-88D IS FULLY OPERATIONAL...THOUGH A SOFTWARE/HARDWARE ISSUE            
WITH OUR AWIPS HAS CAUSED INTERRUPTIONS OF EXTERNAL DISSEMINATION.              
PLEASE CONTACT US IF YOU NOTICE THAT KOKX RADAR IS NOT AVAILABLE.               
&&                                                                              
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ005-            
     006.                                                                       
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ067-            
     068.                                                                       
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ002.            
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS          
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.                                      
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ353-             
     355.                                                                       
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350.               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...GC                                                                   
NEAR TERM...GC                                                                  
SHORT TERM...GC                                                                 
LONG TERM...BG                                                                  
AVIATION...PW                                                                   
MARINE...PW                                                                     
HYDROLOGY...GC                                                                  
EQUIPMENT...                                                                    
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS                                          
305 AM CST MON DEC 31 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
DAYS 1-2...                                                                     
A PACIFIC FRONT PUSHED THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE                        
OVERNIGHT, FORCED BY A DYNAMICALLY GENERATED SURFACE ANTICYCLONE                
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE INITIAL FRONTAL SURGE BROUGHT WINDS                   
GUSTING ABOVE 40 MPH IN PLACES. THE STEADY NORTHWEST WIND IS                    
HELPING TO KEEP THINGS MIXED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS MORNING.                
AT 08Z, 850MB TEMPS AT DDC WERE ABOUT 1C AND THIS IS LIKELY THE                 
REASON TEMPS HAVE RISEN BACK INTO THE LOW 30S. HOWEVER, COLD                    
ADVECTION AT 850MB IS UNDERWAY AND THESE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO                 
FALL BEFORE MORNING. A BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT IS ALSO              
SLICING SOUTHEAST ACROSS MY CWA THIS MORNING ALONG THE SURGING                  
700MB COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH A FEW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE AS THE BAND              
OF MID CLOUD PUSHES SOUTH THIS MORNING, WEAK ECHOES ON RADAR AND DRY            
AIR BELOW 700MB SHOULD KEEP THIS TO A MINIMUM.                                  
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DISPLAY A STRONG              
GSDM (GLOBAL SYNOPTIC DYNAMIC MODEL) LEGACY STAGE 2 LOOK, WITH A                
DEEP TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL STATES/GREAT LAKES REGIONS.               
A PIECE OF THE HUDSON BAY VORTEX CURRENTLY OVER MANITOBA WILL                   
DROP SOUTH SOUTHEAST INTO THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST,                
BRINGING A SLUG OF ARCTIC AIR SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS BY TUESDAY.              
AS IS ALMOST ALWAYS THE CASE, WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE                
CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE NON-EXISTENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST                  
PERIOD.                                                                         
TODAY-- THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES TODAY REGARDING              
HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL BE. THE GFS/NAM SUGGEST LIMITED VERTICAL              
MIXING AND WINDS ONLY ABOUT 30-35KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER              
THIS AFTERNOON. THE EARLIER RUNS OF THE RUC13/20 SHOWED WINDS TO                
ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN KS. THE LATEST RUN,               
HOWEVER, HAS COME DOWN ON THE WINDS AND THIS MAKES CONFIDENCE IN                
NOT GOING WITH AN ADVISORY HIGHER. WILL GO SEVERAL KNOTS ABOVE THE              
NAM12 GUIDANCE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KTS IN THE GRIDS BUT WILL                 
NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES.                                                        
FOR TEMPS, I USED A BLEND OF MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM/GFS/SREF              
AND MIXED DOWN THE AVERAGE LOW LEVEL TEMP DOWN DRY ADIABATIC TO THE             
SFC. THE NAM12 IS STILL STRUGGLING TO MIX THINGS OUT BELOW 900MB,               
PROBABLY DUE TO THE SNOW COVER IN THE MODEL AND AS A RESULT THE 2M              
TEMPS IN THE MODEL LOOK A TAD TOO COLD. WITH DEEPLY MIXED NORTHWEST             
FLOW IN PLACE SNOW COVER DOES NOT HAVE AS MUCH EFFECT ON THE                    
TEMPS AS IT WOULD OTHERWISE. EVEN WITH SNOW COVER OR ARCTIC AIR IN              
PLACE, MIXING OUT THE LOWEST 25MB OR SO IS ALMOST A GIVEN                       
ESPECIALLY WITH SOME SUNSHINE. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOW 30S                   
WITH A CHILLY PACIFIC AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER WESTERN KANSAS.                     
TONIGHT-- WITH A STEADY WEST NORTHWEST WIND AT 10KTS OR GREATER                 
EXPECTED ALL NIGHT, LOWS SHOULD STAY UP IN THE TEENS OVER MUCH OF               
THE FORECAST AREA.                                                              
TUESDAY-- AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER               
WILL OOZE SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE PLAINS AND WILL "BACK DOOR" FROM              
THE NORTHEAST INTO MY FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. THE 00Z SUITE               
OF NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS FARTHER WEST WITH THIS ARCTIC SURGE              
THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND I HAVE THUS ADJUSTED MAXES DOWN SEVERAL                   
DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST. EVEN WITH DECENT MIXING IN THE LOW              
LEVELS AND INSOLATION, MAXES WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE 20S IN              
MOST PLACES.                                                                    
TUESDAY NIGHT-- SURFACE WINDS VEER TO WESTERLY AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY           
AND BECOME LIGHT WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE                 
FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE POSITION OF THE SFC RIDGE MAY NOT BE                   
TIMED RIGHT WITH THE COOLEST PART OF THE DAY, LOWS SHOULD STILL                 
DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS UNDER CLEAR SKIES. AFTER ALL, IF THE                
PREVIOUS DAYS` HIGHS ARE ONLY IN THE 20S, IT DOESN`T TAKE MUCH FOR              
IT TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS DURING THE LONG NIGHTS THIS TIME              
OF YEAR.                                                                        
LACY                                                                            
DAYS 3-7...                                                                     
VERY FEW ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE EXISTING DAYS 3-7 FORECAST.               
ON WEDNESDAY...LOWERED MAX T`S A TAD AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE TUESDAY            
COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY LINGER A BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.             
THERE IS STILL SOME LIGHT SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND...AND THIS WILL              
SUPPRESS SURFACE HEATING A LITTLE.  ALSO...LOWERED DEW POINTS                   
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND ALSO FRIDAY MORNING.  ALSO...EXPECT CIRRUS AND            
PERHAPS A FEW MID LEVEL ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY...             
WHICH WILL THWART FULL SOLAR HEATING.  DID NOT CHANGE MUCH ELSE                 
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.  DO NOT SEE MUCH CHANCE FOR ANY                        
PRECIPITATION.  WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE ESTABLISHED FOR MUCH             
OF THE THU-SAT PERIOD...SETTING UP A DOWNSLOPE CONDITION WHICH                  
SHOULD BRING A GRADUAL WARM UP.  HOW MUCH SNOW COVER WILL STILL                 
EXIST COULD AFFECT THE RESULTING MAX TEMPS...BUT THINK PLENTY OF SUN            
AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL LEAD TO A MAJOR MELT OFF PRIOR TO FRIDAY.              
FOR NOW...WENT A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SAT THAN ON FRI...THINKING               
THE WARM AIR WILL SLOWLY ERODE THE COLD BOUNDARY LAYER FROM                     
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND BE STRONGER ON SATURDAY. WILL BACK                   
TEMPERATURES DOWN A SHADE ON SUNDAY AS THE NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE                  
AFFECT WILL BE LESSENED AS A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.               
12                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN STORE THROUGH 01/06Z.  SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL              
WINDS WILL BE  WINDY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS A MID-LEVEL WAVE PASSES            
EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF OUR TAF AREA.  EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS            
IN THE 25-35KT RANGE AFTER 18Z.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DDC  33  12  27   5 /   0   0   0   0                                           
GCK  33  11  28   5 /   0   0   0   0                                           
EHA  33  14  31  10 /   0   0   0   0                                           
LBL  34  12  29   7 /   0   0   0   0                                           
HYS  32  12  25   3 /   0   0   0   0                                           
P28  35  16  26  11 /   0   0   0   0                                           
&&                                                                              
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FN27/12                                                                         
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
200 AM MST MON DEC 31 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES TODAY                
FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM                
PERIOD. MAY SEE BORDERLINE WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA THRESHOLDS              
BEING MET ACROSS FAR EASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT.                                  
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...                                          
TODAY/TONIGHT...WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS UPPER                 
JET IN BETWEEN UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING TO OUR EAST AND                       
APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST DEVELOPS. QUESTION BECOMES                  
JUST HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL BE...COMPLICATED BY SNOW PACK OVER               
MUCH OF THE AREA...DEEPEST ACROSS FAR EASTERN COLORADO AND                      
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. BASED ON A COMPILATION OF MOS GUIDANCE AND                  
RUC13/RUC WINDS HAVE PAINTED GENERALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE              
AREA. INTERESTING THAT THE RUC13 PICKS UP ON HIGHER SUSTAINED                   
WINDS EAST OF THE DEEPER SNOW PACK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST AS                
TRICKY TODAY AS 850 TEMPERATURES DROP ABOUT 10-15F FROM SUNDAYS                 
READINGS. THIS ALONE (PLUS THE PAST FEW DAYS PERFORMANCE) WOULD                 
SUPPORT NEAR 20 ACROSS FLAGLER COLORADO TO THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30               
EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER...WARMEST ACROSS THE EAST...SIMILAR TO THE             
NAM/GFS/SREF 2M TEMPS. MOS GUIDANCE WILL BE THROWN OUT AS IT HAS                
NO CLUE AS TO SNOW PACK OR AIRMASS IN THE AREA. FOR TONIGHT                     
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE PREVENTING A                 
COMPLETE DROP IN MIN TEMPS. HOWEVER...WITH 850 TEMPERATURES STILL               
DROPPING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE A STEADY FALL. HAVE               
GONE WITH READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE WEST              
WITH 10-15 EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. THE COMBINATION OF THE WIND                
AND TEMPS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE -10 TO -15F                   
RANGE ACROSS FAR EASTERN COLORADO...CLOSE TO WIND CHILL ADVISORY                
CRITERIA. WILL ADDRESS THIS IN THE MORNING HWOGLD PRODUCT.                      
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...850 TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL SOME                  
5-8F AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER              
THE OHIO VALLEY....SLOWING THE WARMING THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY                      
EXPECTED. AM GONNA STICK CLOSE TO THE 850/2M COMBINATION FROM THE               
GFS/NAM/NGM/UKMET/SREF WHICH WOULD SUPPORT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES               
ONLY IN THE 20S WITH PERHAPS SOME TEENS IN EASTERN COLORADO. WILL HAVE          
ANOTHER BLUSTERY/WINDY DAY AGAIN AS THE STRONGER WINDS UNDERNEATH               
THE UPPER JET MIX DOWN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY 22-23Z WINDS              
WILL QUICKLY DECREASE TO UNDER 10 MPH. SOME CIRRUS MAY MOVE INTO                
THE SOUTHWEST 1/2 OR 1/3 OF THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE                  
UPPER RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES ITS APPROACH TOWARD THE AREA. WINDS                  
WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH PRETTY LIGHT SPEEDS. THE              
COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY WILL PROMOTE               
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT BEFORE                 
WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS. MAY SEE                    
TEMPERATURES START TO INCREASE IN THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL GO              
FOR READINGS GENERALLY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO IN FAR EASTERN               
COLORADO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF                
THE AREA.                                                                       
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HAVE FOLLOWED THE COOLER                            
UKMET/ECMWF/GFS AT 850 AS THEY CAPTURE THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL                    
FIELDS BETTER WITH SNOW PACK STILL EXPECTED TO BE AROUND. THE NAM               
IS AT LEAST 15F WARMER THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE PIECES AND HAS BEEN              
DISREGARDED. WITH THAT SAID...STILL PLANNING ON WARMING                         
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S...QUITE A BIT COLDER THEN PREVIOUSLY                  
EXPECTED. CIRRUS MAY BECOME RATHER THICK DURING THE TIME OF PEAK                
HEATING AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ON TOP OF THE AREA. MIN TEMPS WILL              
BE NOTICEABLY LESS COLD WHEN COMPARED TO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE                   
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY/WARM WITH CIRRUS AND LIGHT                          
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE. GENERALLY WENT WITH AROUND 10 IN                
EASTERN COLORADO TO MID TEENS ELSEWHERE.                                        
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY-SUNDAY)...                                                 
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. 850 TEMPERATURES WILL              
CONTINUE TO WARM BUT MODEL AGREEMENT ON HOW FAST OR SLOW THIS                   
HAPPENS IS AT QUESTION. ADDITIONALLY...SNOW PACK WILL STILL BE A                
FACTOR FOR AT LEAST THE EARLY PORTION OF THE LONG TERM AND ITS                  
UNLIKELY THE MODELS WILL BE HANDLING IT WELL. MOS GUIDANCE IS                   
PRETTY MUCH WORTHLESS RIGHT NOW AS IT HAS NO CLUE TO THE SMALLER                
SCALE SNOW FIELDS AND THEIR DEPTH.                                              
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS THE FLOW SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST                
ACROSS OUR AREA AS A STORM SYSTEM AND ITS TROUGH DEVELOP OFF THE                
WEST COAST THURSDAY. AS THE MAIN LOW APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST           
AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH MOVE ASHORE FRIDAY A PIECE OF ENERGY                  
FROM THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH CAN BE SEEN MOVING TOWARD               
OR OVER THE AREA BY 00Z SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE A SIMILAR SCENARIO                 
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY AND PERHAPS MONDAY.                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 12Z TAF...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS                
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 23Z OR SO AT BOTH SITES WITH ONLY SCATTERED               
CLOUDS IN THE 5-10K FT RANGE THROUGH THE DAY. AFTER 23Z WINDS                   
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15-20 KTS               
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS                   
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DDT/DDT/DDT                                                                     
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1204 AM EST MON DEC 31 2007                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LIGHT SNOW WILL END OVER SE MICHIGAN BY 09Z/4AM AND BE REPLACE BY               
STRATUS AND MVFR FOG FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE MORNING. THERE IS              
ALREADY A GENEROUS AMOUNT OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN                   
WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS THAT IS SHOWN BY THE MODELS TO SLIDE            
INTO OUR AREA AND AND NORTH OF THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. MVFR                    
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE GIVING WAY              
TO SOME SLIGHT VISIBILITY IMPROVEMENT. SNOW FROM THE NEXT LOW                   
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND               
AFFECT MAINLY THE DETROIT AREA WITH SOLID ACCUMULATION DURING THE               
NIGHT.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 817 PM EST SUN DEC 30 2007                            
UPDATE...                                                                       
MINOR BUT STILL WORTHY ADJUSTMENTS TO SNOW EXPECTATIONS FOR THE                 
REST OF TONIGHT ARE COMING UP AS OUR HIGH POP LOW QPF SCENARIO                  
CONTINUES TO UNFOLD.                                                            
THE LEAD UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION PATTERN BRUSHING OUR FAR EASTERN               
COUNTIES HAS A COUPLE MORE HOURS LEFT IN IT BEFORE FORCING                      
TRANSITIONS TO THE WAVE SHEARING EASTWARD FROM THE CHICAGO AREA.                
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRUSH THE DETROIT AREA BUT MAINLY AFFECT THE                   
INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDOR INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALL OF THIS                    
DYNAMIC FORCING IS ACTING IN A SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT OF LOW MOISTURE              
BUT ALSO LOW STATIC STABILITY OR EVEN SHALLOW LAYERS OF                         
INSTABILITY IN THE MID LEVELS AS SHOWN IN MODEL CROSS SECTIONS.                 
THE RESULTING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BATTLE DRY AIR IN THE LOW               
LEVELS, ESPECIALLY IN THE TRI CITIES, FOR THE DURATION OF THE                   
EVENT.                                                                          
EXPECT THINGS TO TAPER OFF AROUND 3 AM AS THE UPPER WAVE SHEARS                 
TO OUR EAST. UNTIL THEN, WE WILL HANG ON TO CATEGORICAL POPS A                  
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH INTO FLINT AND A LONGER INTO THE NIGHT, BUT                
WITH SOME DURATION QUALIFIERS TO GO ALONG WITH ACCUMULATION LESS                
THAN AN INCH.                                                                   
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 332 PM EST SUN DEC 30 2007                             
SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT                                                    
HIGH POP/LOW QPF SNOW MINI-EVENT EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF              
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...ROUGHLY SOUTH OF I-69. NORTH OF                     
THERE...JUST SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHEST SNOW                              
ACCUMULATIONS...ONLY ABOUT AN INCH...ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE             
FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE...FROM ST CLAIR COUNTY                    
SOUTHWARD DOWN TO MONROE COUNTY.                                                
UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE CORN BELT THIS AFTERNOON WILL              
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NIGHT. WHILE              
MAIN SURFACE REFLECTION WILL STAY OVER THE CAROLINAS...PAST SEVERAL             
MODEL SUITES HAVE SHOWN A SECONDARY REFLECTION DEVELOPING OVER WEST             
VIRGINIA AND TRACKING UP THROUGH WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE                
LATE EVENING. MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DO                 
INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF THIS FEATURE...AND 12Z MODELS WERE                     
DEFINITELY TOO WEAK WITH IT. ALREADY SOME EVIDENCE OF A DEFORMATION             
BAND FORMING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM PER OBS AND SATELLITE             
IMAGERY...AND MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING THIS                   
DEFORMATION ZONE INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AFTER 00Z TONIGHT. SYSTEM              
WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TO WORK WITH AS JET DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN JUST TO             
OUR SOUTHEAST...AND NO DECENT INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL                 
OCCUR. WILL SEE SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT HOWEVER...AND FORCING DOES LOOK            
TO BE CENTERED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ALLOWING FOR MAXIMUM                
CRYSTAL GROWTH. OVERALL...LIKE THE RUC AND NGM QPF FIELDS THE BEST.             
DID HOWEVER LEAN TOWARDS THE HIGHER END OF THE MODEL QPF                        
FIELDS...GIVEN THAT THE MODELS ARE UNDERDONE WITH THE SYSTEM                    
INTENSITY. WITH THE LOW CENTER ALREADY SO FAR TO OUR EAST SNOWFALL              
WILL BE LIGHT AND FAIRLY SHORT IN DURATION...MOSTLY OCCURRING WITHIN            
A 4 TO 6 HOUR WINDOW THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OUT OF               
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN BY 4 AM.                                                     
IN THE WAKE OF THIS LITTLE SYSTEM...LOW CLOUDS AND MIST WILL LINGER             
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO BECOME ESTABLISHED LATE             
TONIGHT AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST                  
BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED AND STARTS TO ADVANCE INTO THE WESTERN                 
GREAT LAKES.                                                                    
LONG TERM...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS DEPICTING WEAK SHORTWAVE                   
ENERGY EJECTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS                     
AFTERNOON. THIS ENERGY WILL ORGANIZE INTO A STRONGER SHORTWAVE                  
ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY INDUCE WEAK SFC                      
CYCLOGENESIS AS IT PULLS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. MODEL                
TRENDS SINCE THE 00Z CYCLE HAVE BEEN TOWARD A WEAKER AND MORE                   
SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE MAIN SFC LOW...WITH A SECOND WEAKER SFC                  
REFLECTION INDICATED WITHIN THE UNPHASED FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN                   
CANADA. THE 12Z GFS...WITH SUPPORT FROM THE 12Z WRF-HEMI AND                    
CANADIAN...TAKES THE LOW FROM CENTRAL IL ACROSS NORTHERN IN AND                 
INTO LAKE ERIE. THE NAM REMAINS THE FURTHEST SOUTH...KEEPING A                  
STRONGER/MORE COMPACT LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN IN/NORTHEAST OHIO. THE                
12Z ECMWF APPEARS TO BE A GOOD COMPROMISE...MAINTAINING A                       
SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK THAN THE GFS...WHILE ALLOWING FOR                 
BETTER NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF THE MOISTURE/PCPN SHIELD INTO                     
SOUTHEAST LOWER MI COMPARED TO THE VERY DRY LOOKING NAM.                        
FORCING WILL BE LACKING INITIALLY...AND WILL PULL BACK ON POPS FOR              
THE MORNING HOURS.  HOWEVER...BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING THE                     
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ACCENT PROVIDED BY THE UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK             
LOW/MID LEVEL DEFORMATION WILL HELP OVERCOME A LIMITED MOISTURE                 
SOURCE TO BRING SNOW TO ALL OF SOUTHEAST LOWER MI.  MODELS INDICATE             
THE MAIN AXIS OF LARGE SCALE FORCING/OMEGA WILL EXIST JUST SOUTH OF             
THE STATE LINE...LEAVING THE HIGHEST QPF BANDS JUST OUT OF OUR                  
AREA.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED LOW TRACK AND OVERALL                    
VERTICAL MOTION/MOISTURE FIELDS...A BROAD 1-2 INCH SWATH OF SNOWFALL            
STILL SEEMS PLAUSIBLE BY 06Z MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE               
SOUTHERN HALF.  THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS                     
APPROACHING 3 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO TIER OF COUNTIES...AND             
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IN THE                 
TRACK AND BETTER FORCING. WHERE GOOD SYNOPTIC FORCING LACKS ACROSS              
THE THUMB REGION...SOME ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL MAY COME FROM LAKE                  
EFFECT ENHANCEMENT. THE ONLY AREA THAT MAY STRUGGLE TO SEE MUCH                 
SYNOPTIC ACCUMULATION WILL BE IN THE SAGINAW VALLEY...AND WILL                  
SCALE BACK QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY HERE.                                      
12Z MODEL SUITE REMAIN IN STRONG AGREEMENT AND CARRY GOOD RUN TO RUN            
CONTINUITY WITH THE PATTERN EVOLUTION BY MIDWEEK.  THE WEAKER SYSTEM            
LIFTING THROUGH MONDAY WILL LEAD IN A STRONGER SHORTWAVE FOR                    
TUESDAY...WITH THIS ENERGY CARVING OUT A DEEPER LONGWAVE TROUGH AND             
ALLOWING A BRIEF SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR TO SPILL IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/              
WEDNESDAY. STRENGTHENING COLD AIR ADVECTION ON TUESDAY WITH 850 MB              
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW -10C WILL CREATE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE               
CONDITIONS FOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. THE                   
LATEST GFS INDICATING A NARROW CONVERGENCE ZONE DEVELOPING ACROSS               
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE THUMB...WITH A SMALL WINDOW OF                       
PREDOMINANT NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW OVER LAKE HURON INCREASING THE                 
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS IN THESE LOCATIONS LATE TUESDAY.              
MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP BY TUESDAY EVENING AREAWIDE                
AS FORCING/CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY              
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN MI...AND LIKELY POPS REMAIN                      
APPROPRIATE FOR THIS PERIOD. OVERALL...ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS UP              
TO 2 INCHES (HIGHEST NORTH) STILL SEEMS REASONABLE AREAWIDE...WITH              
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED LAKE                  
ENHANCED AREAS ACROSS THE THUMB.                                                
ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD BRIEFLY FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH                
LINGERING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.  BASED ON PROJECTED 850 MB/                   
THICKNESS TRENDS...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY               
FALL...AND NOT REACH MUCH ABOVE THE LOWER 20S.  AT LEAST PARTIAL                
CLEARING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COMBINED WITH A WEAKENING GRADIENT WITH              
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WILL BRING THE                  
COLDEST NIGHT OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  GOING FORECAST WITH LOWS                 
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 5-10F RANGE STILL LOOKING GOOD FOR THURSDAY                
MORNING.                                                                        
BIG PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS              
MODEL CONSENSUS PLACES THE GREAT LAKES WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY DEEP              
SOUTHWEST FLOW...BETWEEN STRENGTHENING RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST COAST            
AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.  THIS                
WILL LEAD TO A PRONOUNCED WARMUP BY THE WEEKEND...WITH 850 MB TEMPS             
CLIMBING INTO THE 5-10C RANGE BY SUNDAY.  IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO             
SCOUR OUT THE ARCTIC AIR INITIALLY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO TEMPER THE            
WARMUP ON THURSDAY...AS THE COLD MORNING START AND SNOW COVER                   
POTENTIAL WILL CERTAINLY COUNTER ANY INCREASE IN WARM AIR ADVECTION/            
RISING THICKNESSES.   HOWEVER...BY THE WEEKEND EXPECT TEMPERATURES              
TO CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY POTENTIALLY                   
APPROACHING 50F ACROSS THE SOUTH. INCREASING ISENTROPIC ACCENT AND              
THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN              
BY SATURDAY...WITH THE THERMAL PROFILES LOOKING MORE LIKE ALL                   
RAIN.                                                                           
MARINE...                                                                       
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BECOME ORGANIZED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST            
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN                
GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TUESDAY            
AS IT TRACKS INTO NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE...A VERY LARGE AND STRONG              
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ITS WAKE TUESDAY OVER THE                   
CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH OUR AREA IN THE CENTER OF THESE TWO                        
STRENGTHENING SYSTEMS...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR            
OVER ALL MARINE AREAS TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.                
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW GALE STRENGTH...BUT SMALL CRAFT              
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.                                               
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION.....BT                                                                 
UPDATE.......BT                                                                 
SHORT TERM...HLO                                                                
LONG TERM....MR                                                                 
MARINE.......HLO                                                                
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
256 AM CST MON DEC 31 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
NARROW SNOW BAND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN                       
COUNTIES IN NEB IN ASSOCIATION WITH ENTRANCE REGION OF FAST MOVING              
JET STREAK. STRONGEST 88D RETURNS LINE UP WELL WITH RUC 300MB                   
DIVERGENCE...HOWEVER SO FAR ONLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS REPORTED ON SFC               
OBS...BUT A FEW COUNTIES IN NERN KS NOW REPORTING BRIEF LIGHT SNOW. EXPECT      
LESS THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION THROUGH 12Z MAINLY SOUTH OF                   
INTERSTATE 80...WITH MOST AREAS RECEIVING JUST A DUSTING DUE TO                 
LACK OF GOOD MOISTURE. FORCING IS QUICK TO MOVE EAST OF THE                     
FORECAST AREA BY 18Z AS UPPER SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO NRN MO. ANOTHER               
WEAK WAVE BEHIND THIS INITIAL WAVE IS QUICK TO MOVE INTO NERN NEB               
THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD SUPPORT ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE AREAS OF                
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA.               
HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED POPS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OF THE                    
FORECAST DUE TO LACK OF PROLONGED FORCING AND MOISTURE. AT THE                  
SFC...COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CNTRL NEB WL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD                
TODAY. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...DESCENT MIXING IS TAKING PLACE AND SO              
HAVE BOOSTED HIGHS FOR TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.                               
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY                
AS 1050MB HIGH BUILDS OVER THE COLORADO ROCKIES. MEANWHILE...500MB              
CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROF WITH SLUG OF ARCTIC AIR WL DIVE                  
OUT OF ERN DAKOTAS LATE TONIGHT AND BRUSH NERN NEB AND NWRN IA.                 
THIS WL DRAG ARCTIC FRONT DOWN WITH POCKET OF -20C 850MB AIR. A FEW             
FLURRIES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROF                    
HOWEVER AIRMASS REMAINS QUITE DRY AND SO DOUBTFUL OF ANY                        
ACCUMULATING SNOW. WITH A CONTINUED STRONG SFC GRADIENT AND 850MB               
WINDS NEAR 40-50KTS...WL SEE SOME VERY COLD TEMPS AND WIND CHILL                
READINGS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WL BUILD               
IN WED MORNING AND NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS ARE QUITE LIKELY AS                   
WINDS DIE OFF.                                                                  
GENERAL THEME OF REMAINDER OF FORECAST IS DRY AND MUCH WARMER AS                
AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. WL BE A                  
CHALLENGING TEMP FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED AS SNOW COVER AND                    
POSSIBLE STRATUS DECK INFLUENCE DAILY MAXES.                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR TAF SITES KOFK/KLNK/KOMA                                                    
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS A BAND OF SNOW MOVING THROUGH SE NEB               
THIS MRNG.  THIS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF IFR VSBY AT LNK THROUGH 13Z.               
MEASURABLE SNOW IS UNLIKELY FOR ANY OF THE SITES AFTER THIS.                    
HOWEVER...INCREASING NW WINDS WILL BRING A STRENGTHENING PUSH OF                
ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN AND TNGT. THIS WILL LIKELY                 
PRODUCE SOME MVFR STRATOCU CIGS AND SCT SNOW SHWRS WITH MINOR VSBY              
REDUCTIONS.  SFC WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO 17-25KT BY ARND 18Z AND               
REMAIN IN THAT RANGE THROUGH 12Z FRI.  A FEW GUSTS 30-35 KT ARE                 
LIKELY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GRIFFIS/POLLACK                                                                 
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM                                         
945 PM MST SUN DEC 30 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
DECIDED TO CANCEL THE WIND ADV FOR ZONE 2. WINDS ALOFT AS ADVERTISED            
ON THE 02Z RUC13/00Z NAM40 HAVE FAILED TO TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE              
ACROSS THE ENTIRE ADV AREA. HOWEVER...REPORTS FROM SPOTTERS ALONG               
INTERSTATE 25 NEAR SPRINGER AND WAGON MOUND HAVE SEEN BLOWING DIRT              
AND SNOW WITH STRONG WESTERLY WINDS. STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR TO BE               
FARTHER TO THE NORTH STILL OVER CENTRAL CO AND THEY WILL CONTINUE               
SAGGING SOUTH OVERNIGHT. LOWERED SKY COVER TO CLEAR OVER THE CWA                
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE SAN JUAN AND SANGRE             
DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS DOWN MONDAY AS 700MB TEMPS              
COOL ANOTHER 6 TO 12 DEGREES FROM TODAY. NEW YEARS EVE LOOKS TO BE              
EXTREMELY COLD OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH TEENS TO 20S BELOW              
ZERO POSSIBLE AND WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ELSEWHERE.                 
GUYER                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...257 PM MST SUN DEC 30 2007...                                
CURRENTLY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NEW MEXICO BETWEEN RIDGE                  
POKING UP FROM EAST PACIFIC OCEAN WATERS OFF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA                
TO THE MACKENZIE RIVER DELTA IN ARCTIC NORTHWEST CANADA...AND TROUGH            
SWINGING EAST FROM CURRENT AXIS FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA SOUTH AND                
EAST TO CENTRAL ALABAMA. MAIN 300 MB JET STREAK RUNNING FROM                    
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO CENTRAL COLORADO...WITH A LOBE OF FAST FLOW                
JUST NOSING INTO NEW MEXICO FROM SOUTHERN NEVADA. WIND SPEEDS HAVE              
BEEN A LITTLE TARDY ON COMING UP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CLINES                    
CORNERS REMAINS THE WINDY WINNER IN TORRANCE COUNTY...WITH BROAD                
AREA OF GUSTS IN THE 30S AND 40S MPH ALONG AND EAST OF THE                      
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. WITH SECONDARY SPEED LOBE                  
STILL UPSTREAM ALOFT...WILL ALLOW NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND FAR                    
EASTERN PLAINS WIND ADVISORIES TO CONTINUE THROUGH 11 P.M. MST AS               
SCHEDULED...BUT EXTEND ADVISORIES THROUGH 5 A.M. MST MONDAY                     
MORNING FOR THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...NEIGHBORING                        
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS...THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS...AND THE SANDIA AND              
MANZANO PASSES. ADVISORY WILL CALL OUT HIGH PEAKS...GAPS...AND                  
PASSES AS PARTICULARLY WINDY AREAS.                                             
DESPITE DYNAMIC EXCITEMENT ALOFT...SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD IS                    
PRETTY FLAT WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERING UP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS               
AND FIRST INKLING OF DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.                 
WILL THUS PLAN ON CONTINUED VERTICAL DECOUPLING OF THE LOWER                    
ATMOSPHERE...AND MAINTAIN WIND EMPHASIS ON HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS ROUND.        
WITH DYNAMICS STILL ACTIVE ALOFT...QUICK HITTER SHOTS OF SNOW AND               
CLOUD IN THE CARDS FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE DAY                   
TOMORROW...WITH THIS FOCUS FOR ISOLATED ACTIVITY CREEPING SLOWLY                
TO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.                               
MODELS...GOOD CONSENSUS WITH PLAUSIBLE AND REASONABLE                           
SOLUTION...MOVING AMPLIFYING WEST COAST RIDGE TOWARD NEW MEXICO                 
AND SUPPORTING WARMING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK IN ADVANCE OF ARRIVAL              
OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM DUE IN TO THE FOUR CORNERS LATE THURSDAY                 
NIGHT.                                                                          
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY...FAST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING                    
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...WITH WIND ADVISORIES FLYING THROUGH EARLY               
MORNING FOR SANGRE DE CRISTOS...NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS...EAST CENTRAL              
PLAINS...AND SANDIA AND MANZANO MOUNTAIN GAPS. WINDS SHOULD COME                
DOWN WELL BY MONDAY MORNING...AS SUPPORT ALOFT MOVES OFF TO THE                 
EAST AND LAST OF THE DYNAMICS TOUCHES OFF SOME FAREWELL ISOLATED                
SNOW SHOWERS AS COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE DURING              
THE DAY. COLDER AIR AND BREEZY LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE NORTH WILL               
DELAY START TO THE WARMING TREND.                                               
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER                    
WESTERN NEW MEXICO EARLY TUESDAY WILL OVERSPREAD THE STATE BY                   
AFTERNOON FOR RETURN TO CLEAR SKIES AND WARMING TREND FOR THE DAY.              
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WAKE OF DEPARTING TROUGH ALOFT                
WITH DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ON UPSTREAM SIDE OF THE RIDGE OVER                   
NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST AND                        
SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.                                                 
INTO WEDNESDAY...QUICK SHOT DISTURBANCE BARRELING OUT OF BAJA                   
CALIFORNIA MAY INTERRUPT SUNSHINE AND THROW CLOUDS ACROSS THE                   
STATE FOR MIDWEEK...BUT VERY SPOTTY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS...AND               
MOST OF THIS OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. CONTINUED WARMING TREND                
WILL START TO PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.                              
INTO THURSDAY...WEATHER SYSTEM MAKING LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN                    
CALIFORNIA WILL BACK FLOW ALOFT TO THE SOUTHWEST...INTRODUCING THE              
FIRST OF THE HIGHER CLOUDS TO THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE STATE DURING              
THE DAY. STORM WILL CROSS INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO LATE THURSDAY                 
NIGHT TO KICK OFF SOME LESS THAN IDEAL TRAVEL WEATHER HEADING INTO              
THE FINAL HOLIDAY TRAVEL WEEKEND. HAVE ALREADY ISSUED SPECIAL                   
WEATHER STATEMENT ADVISING CUSTOMERS WITH TRAVEL PLANS TO STAY                  
CLOSE TO FORECASTS FOR FRIDAY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH MUCH              
UNCERTAINTY REMAINING IN STORM TRACK AND EVENTUAL PRECIPITATION                 
PLACEMENT.                                                                      
SHY                                                                             
.AVIATION...WINDS ALOFT INCREASING TONIGHT MUCH OF NORTH AND                    
CENTRAL NM WITH SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE INDUCED TURBULENCE A GOOD                    
POSSIBILITY TO LEE OF CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ALONG WITH STRONG                  
WINDS OVER HIGHER RIDGES AND NEARER THE SURFACE IN VICINITY OF THE              
WAVE TROUGHS. THESE WINDS AND TURBULENCE SHOULD DECREASE SOMEWHAT               
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY. WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT STILL               
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NORTHEAST THIRD OR SO OF THE STATE LATE                   
TONIGHT BUT MAY WELL BE A LITTLE WEAKER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. VFR              
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF AREA THROUGH AND BEYOND MONDAY               
THOUGH SOME LOCALIZED MOUNTAIN TOP OBSCURATION...ISOLATED LIGHT                 
FLURRIES AND MARGINALLY IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES ACROSS NW              
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.                                          
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 10Z.                                     
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
FARMINGTON......................  19  32   6  36 /   0   0   0   0              
GALLUP..........................  14  37   2  40 /   0   0   0   0              
GRANTS..........................  17  39   1  42 /   0   0   0   0              
GLENWOOD........................  26  52  24  53 /   0   0   0   0              
CHAMA...........................   5  20 -11  34 /  10  10   0   0              
LOS ALAMOS......................  16  30   2  36 /   0   0   0   0              
RED RIVER.......................   3  17 -12  29 /  10  10   0   0              
TAOS............................  10  26 -11  32 /   0   0   0   0              
SANTA FE........................  17  30   7  34 /   0   0   0   0              
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  20  34   5  32 /   0   0   0   0              
ESPANOLA........................  20  35   2  35 /   0   0   0   0              
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  26  40  16  39 /   0   0   0   0              
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  23  42  12  36 /   0   0   0   0              
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  25  38  14  41 /   0   0   0   0              
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  25  41  13  40 /   0   0   0   0              
SOCORRO.........................  24  47  19  42 /   0   0   0   0              
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  20  34   9  39 /   0   0   0   0              
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  21  34  10  33 /   0   0   0   0              
CARRIZOZO.......................  27  45  20  42 /   0   0   0   0              
RUIDOSO.........................  30  41  17  38 /   0   0   0   0              
RATON...........................  15  33  -1  31 /   0  10   5   0              
LAS VEGAS.......................  19  28   5  32 /   0   5   0   0              
ROY.............................  22  34  12  35 /   0  10  10   0              
CLAYTON.........................  21  36  10  34 /   0   0   0   0              
SANTA ROSA......................  27  41  13  41 /   0   0   0   0              
TUCUMCARI.......................  28  40  12  40 /   0   0   0   0              
FORT SUMNER.....................  26  42  15  40 /   0   0   0   0              
CLOVIS..........................  26  41  14  41 /   0   0   0   0              
PORTALES........................  26  43  13  42 /   0   0   0   0              
ROSWELL.........................  29  50  19  44 /   0   0   0   0              
&&                                                                              
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...                  
NMZ004-005-010>012.                                                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GUYER                                                                           
</pre> nm                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
1005 AM EST MON DEC 31 2007                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE FORECAST AREA                  
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. COLD FRONT HAS STALLED TO OUR SOUTHEAST              
ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA THIS MORNING. HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR             
ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN FLORIDA BIG            
BEND. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS IS SHOWING INCREASING UPGLIDE ALONG THE               
295-300K SURFACES THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING TO THE NORTH              
OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS BELOW AROUND            
700MB ARE QUITE LOW RESULTING IN ONLY WEAK LIFT NEEDED TO REACH                 
SATURATION. IN ADDITION...RUC IS SHOWING A WEAK DISTURBANCE BETWEEN             
500-300MB CROSSING THE NORTHERN GULF WHICH SHOULD HELP ADD                      
A SMALL AMOUNT OF SYNOPTIC LIFT TO THE PICTURE OVER THESE AREAS.                
THIS DISTURBANCE COULD BE SEEN EARLIER THIS MORNING CROSSING THROUGH            
SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH A SLIGHT BACKING IN THE PROFILER WIND DATA.                
CROSS SECTION FORECASTS FROM JUST SOUTHEAST OF KTLH TO KCTY LATER               
TODAY INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING ARE SHOWING A                 
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE OMEGA BULLSEYE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. WHILE IMPACTS             
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINOR...CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS/SPRINKLES             
SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KAAF TO KTLH IN ADDITION TO SKIES                 
REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY. WITH THE CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT PRECIP                  
POSSIBLE ALSO LOWERED HIGHS ACROSS THIS AREA BY A COUPLE OF                     
DEGREES...MAINLY DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 60S. LIFT RAPIDLY DIMINISHES              
BY THE LATER EVENING HOURS AND HAVE ALL SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ENDING BY             
MIDNIGHT (LIKELY A BIT EARLIER FROM KAAF TO KTLH).                              
FORECAST ATTENTION WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE APPROACH OF A STRONG                  
ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST. LATEST GUIDANCE             
BRINGS THE FRONT TO AROUND KDHN AND KABY AROUND 09Z AND THEN EXITS              
THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND KCTY BETWEEN 14-15Z                   
TUESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL STILL BE IN THE 50S ON TUESDAY             
WITH THE COLDEST AIR NOT ARRIVING UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT...GUSTY                   
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL COOLER.                                       
LATEST GUIDANCE IS SHOWING 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO BETWEEN -8 AND               
-13C FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS IS A                
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE COLD AIRMASS FOR OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. LOOKING AT            
IT STATISTICALLY...THESE 850MB TEMPS ARE -4.0 TO -4.5 STANDARD                  
DEVIATIONS FROM CLIMATOLOGY. TO PUT THIS IN PLAIN WORDING...A 4.0               
STANDARD DEVIATION EVENT HAS A LESS THAN A ONE HALF PERCENT (< 0.5%)            
PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE. SO...ALTHOUGH WE HAVE CERTAINLY SEEN                 
COLDER AIRMASS IN THE PAST...THIS IS STILL A VERY RARE OCCURRENCE.              
LOOKING FOR A WIDESPREAD ADVECTION FREEZE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO                    
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WILL MONITORING CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE HARD                 
FREEZE CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.              
WITH THE LOWER LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AS COLD AS EXPECTED ON                  
WEDNESDAY...CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 40S MAY BE ON THE              
OPTIMISTIC SIDE AND WILL TAKE A CLOSE LOOK AT THESE HIGHS WITH THE              
AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.                                                     
ANOTHER WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY             
MORNING WITH HARD FREEZE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...IF NOT LIKELY...AWAY             
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE FORECAST WATERS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS                 
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SETTLING DOWN TO                
AROUND 10 KNOTS. FLOW WILL COME AROUND BY LATE THIS EVENING TO THE              
WEST AND NORTHWEST BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG               
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE WATERS TUESDAY                 
MORNING WITH WIND AND SEAS RAPIDLY BUILDING TO ADVISORY LEVELS FOR              
ALL LEGS. AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN                 
PLAINS TO OUR WEST THE COMBINATION OF A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND             
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE WINDS EVEN FURTHER TUESDAY              
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH SUSTAINED FLOW BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS               
POSSIBLE OVER A LARGE AREA. IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT GUSTS...OR EVEN            
FREQUENT GUST TO GALE FORCE WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY             
MORNING. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY             
NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING TO THE CAUTIONARY RANGE DURING THURSDAY AS               
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO OUR NORTH.                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
THE FOG AT KDHN AND KABY IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY MID TO LATE                
MORNING. OTHERWISE...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH             
THIS EVENING...BUT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT KVLD. -SHRA             
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KTLH AND KVLD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH                  
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THEIR MENTION IN THE TAFS...AND IT IS UNLIKELY                
THERE WILL BE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO OPERATIONS. WINDS WILL BE               
OUT OF THE E TO NE LESS THAN 10 KT.                                             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  62  42  58  25  47 /  15  15   0   0   0                           
PANAMA CITY  62  46  56  30  47 /   0   0   0   0   0                           
DOTHAN       64  37  56  24  46 /   0   0   0   0   0                           
ALBANY       64  38  57  25  45 /   0   0   0   0   0                           
VALDOSTA     62  43  59  27  46 /  15  15   0   0   0                           
CROSS CITY   65  52  62  28  49 /  25  20   0   0   0                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 12 PM EST /11 AM CST/ TO 7 PM EST /6 PM              
     CST/ TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...                     
     DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...INLAND                        
     WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY...               
     MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.                                   
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...FOURNIER                                                             
REST OF DISCUSSION...MROCZKA                                                    
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1033 AM EST MON DEC 31 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...FAIRLY QUIET DAY ON TAP THROUGHOUT NORTHERN MICHIGAN...               
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LINGERING LAKE EFFECT BAND ALONG/SOUTH OF THE             
STRAITS WHICH REMAINS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE. BAND REALLY               
WENT TO TOWN OVERNIGHT OWING TO ONSET OF DEEP SYNOPTIC MOISTURE IN              
ADVANCE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING THROUGH WISCONSIN AS WELL AS              
PRONOUNCED 1000-850MB CONVERGENCE AXIS RUNNING THE LENGTH OF THE                
LAKE. BAND HAS SINCE WEAKENED WITH SOME DISRUPTION OF THE LOW LEVEL             
FLOW PER EARLY MORNING ONSET OF LAND BREEZE AS WELL AS PASSAGE OF               
WEAK UPPER WAVE AND LOSS OF -DIVQ. HOWEVER...OVERALL SFC FLOW                   
REMAINS QUITE CONVERGENT PER RECENT OBS AND LATEST RUC/NAM PROGS                
THROUGH 18Z...AND WITH DELTA T/S MORE THAN SUFFICIENT (MID TEENS)               
AND INVERSION HEIGHTS NEARLY NON-EXISTENT IN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP              
LAPSE RATES (850-500MB RATES RUNNING SOME 7.5C/KM)...FORESEE NO                 
REASON WHY SOME WEAK LAKE BANDING WON/T CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON             
FOR THE TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES.  THUS GOING ADVISORY LOOKS LIKE A             
GOOD DEAL AS A FEW SPOTS (MAINLY EMMET COUNTY) COULD PICK UP A                  
COUPLE FRESH INCHES INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE OVERALL PARAMETERS              
ON THE DECLINE PER INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ALOFT AND SHIFTING             
LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME AS OHIO VALLEY STORM BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE.                
ELSEWHERE...EARLY MORNING SYNOPTIC SNOW JUST ABOVE OVER AS WEAK                 
280-285K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WEAKENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF VORT AND              
DEPTH OF MOISTURE SHALLOWING. GIVEN LATEST RADAR TRENDS WILL JUST               
CALL IT FLURRIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION            
OF EASTERN UPPER WHERE WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW WITH                  
MOISTURE DEPTH HOLDING FIRM PER FORECAST RAOBS. OTHERWISE...A MAINLY            
CLOUDY DAY ON TAP AREAWIDE...THOUGH COULD SEE A FEW BREAKS THROUGH              
THE DAY (ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER WHERE FLOW WEAKLY               
DOWNSLOPE) BUT LIKELY NOT MUCH PER RENEWED PUSH OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS              
OFF TO THE SOUTH AND RESIDUAL THERMAL TROUGHING HANGING OUT                     
OVERHEAD. ONE FINAL NOTE...HAVE ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING FOG            
FOR MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH NOON AS OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW              
WIDESPREAD LIGHT FOG IN PLACE ALL THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH                
PUSH OF WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION UP OVER SNOWPACK AND SOME HELP                   
LOCALLY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW RUNNING UP INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HAVE            
ALREADY SEE LIGHT RIMING UP HERE ON THE HILL AND SUSPECT SIMILAR                
CONDITIONS IN PLACE CENTRAL CWA. LATEST NAM 30AGL COND PRES PLOTS               
SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS POTENTIAL...WITH SOME LOSS                   
EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM...THOUGH                
INTERESTING TO NOTE LATEST MAV GUIDANCE HANGS THE (RELATIVELY) LOW              
VISBYS IN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FOR INTERIOR COUNTIES.                        
LAWRENCE                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR CEILINGS FOR KTVC/KAPN THROUGH                 
THE AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR CEILINGS/VISBYS AROUND KPLN AS SOUTHWEST              
FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES TO ADVANCE UP THE LAKE MICHIGAN                 
SHORELINE. WINDS THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS WILL REMAIN QUITE                    
LIGHT...SHIFTING FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO A MORE NORTHERLY                   
DIRECTION LATE TONIGHT.                                                         
LAWRENCE                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM EST MON DEC 31 2007/                         
DISCUSSION...NEW LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD 150W EARLY THIS                
MORNING WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR THE WESTERN               
LAKES TO USHER IN THE NEW YEAR.  THIS COLD PERIOD WILL BE SHORT                 
LIVED HOWEVER...WITH BIG TIME HEIGHT RISES AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW               
ALOFT SETTING UP FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.  SO LOOKING AT A              
WARM UP AKIN TO WHAT OCCURRED DURING THE EXACT SAME TIME PERIOD ONE             
YEAR AGO.                                                                       
FORECAST PROBLEMS IN THE NEAR TERM WILL DEAL FIRST WITH A NASTY                 
LOOKING SNOW BAND OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.  FOCUS THEN TURNS TO             
TWO SHORT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH MEAN CENTRAL NORTH AMERICAN MEAN               
TROUGH POSITION.  ONE WAVE SLIDING INTO NE/KS EARLY THIS MORNING...             
AND WILL ZIP THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT.  WILL NEED TO               
EVALUATE SNOW THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM...EVEN THOUGH THE BULK OF THE             
EFFECTS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  A SECOND WAVE SPINNING             
ITS WAY OUT OF NORTHERN MANITOBA PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL DIG               
SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC IN THE TUESDAY/                 
WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME AS LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE                 
EASTWARD.  THIS LATTER WAVE WILL HELP PULL COLDER AIR ACROSS THE                
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...AND WILL GET THE LAKE                  
EFFECT MACHINE GOING AGAIN LATER TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK.  FORECAST                
EVOLUTIONS IS SOMEWHAT COMPLEX WITH DECENT POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL               
TUESDAY. MORE ON THAT BELOW.                                                    
TODAY/TONIGHT...AT THE ONSET THIS MORNING...LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES             
WERE FALLING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...WITH A FOCUSED AREA OF                     
CONVERGENCE RESULTING IN A STRONG SNOW BAND OVER NORTHERN LAKE                  
MICHIGAN FROM THE MANITOU AND FOX ISLANDS NORTHEAST INTO THE STRAITS            
AREA.  RADAR RETURNS ARE IMPRESSIVE...WITH POCKETS OF 30-35 DBZ                 
RETURNS WITH RADAR ESTIMATES OF 1-2 INCH/HOUR SNOWFALL RATES.                   
FORTUNATELY...MUCH OF THIS IS OFFSHORE THOUGH THE NORTHERN END IS               
POKING INTO SOUTHERN MACKINAC COUNTY.  THIS BAND IS ACTUALLY JUST               
THE NORTHER END OF A BAND THAT SNAKES ITS WAY BACK INTO SOUTHERN                
LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH RADAR INDICATIONS OF ONE OR MORE MESOSCALE                 
VORTICES SPINNING ALONG THIS LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL AND              
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.  ON THE LARGE SCALE...SYNOPTIC LIGHT SNOW               
ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN FRINGES OF SMALL SCALE VORT CENTER NOTED ON            
WATER VAPOR SLIDING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LOWER...PROBABLY SOME                   
CONTRIBUTION FROM ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAVE OVER CENTRAL WI.  00Z UPPER            
AIR ANALYSES/SOUNDINGS SHOW DRIER AIR ACROSS IA/MO/IL THAT MOVE INTO            
LOWER MI LATER TODAY...WHICH COMBINED WITH LOSS OF FORCING SHOULD               
CONFINE CURRENT LIGHT SNOW PATTERN TO THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY FOR             
THE MOST PART.  IN ADDITION TO THE SYNOPTIC SNOW...REMNANTS OF THE              
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LAKE MICHIGAN BAND WILL BRING            
SOME BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW TO WESTERN LOWER FOR A TIME THIS MORNING            
AS THOSE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS HEAD INLAND.  BIGGER QUESTION IS WHAT              
TO DO WITH THE BAND OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN?  INDICATIONS ARE               
THAT CONVERGENCE WILL WEAKEN THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL FLOW FORECAST            
TO BECOME MORE UNIFORMLY SOUTHWEST.  BUT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE                 
COULD BE A SEVERAL HOUR WINDOW THIS MORNING WITH HEAVY SNOWFALL                 
RATES ACROSS PARTS OF CHARLEVOIX/EMMET/EXTREME NORTHERN CHEBOYGAN/              
SOUTHEASTERN MACKINAC COUNTIES.  EVEN AS THE MAIN BAND MOVES INLAND             
AND WEAKENS...SOUTHWEST FLOW LES PARAMETERS ARE NOT BAD EVEN WITH               
MARGINALLY WARM (AROUND -11C) 850MB TEMPERATURES.  LAPSE RATES ARE              
AT OR GREATER THAN MOIST ADIABATIC THROUGH 500MB...WITH FORECAST                
LAKE INDUCED CAPES A DECENT 400-450 J/KG THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE                  
DROPPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS 850MB TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM            
AND INVERSION BECOMES A BIT BETTER DEFINED WITH WEAK DOWNWARD                   
FORCING.  GIVEN THIS THINKING...WENT AHEAD EARLIER AND PUT UP AN LES            
ADVISORY FOR THE ABOVE LISTED COUNTIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.             
RAN WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 3-7 INCHES FROM NOW THROUGH LATE                      
AFTERNOON.  WANTED TO GET SOMETHING OUT BEFORE THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL             
RATES MOVED IN  (WHICH WOULD HAVE OCCURRED PRIOR TO SCHEDULED                   
FORECAST ISSUANCE).  JUST ANOTHER NORTHERN MICHIGAN SNOW "FLASH                 
FLOOD" EVENT...                                                                 
FOR TONIGHT...ATTENTION WILL BE FOCUSED ON SHORT WAVE COMING OUT OF             
NE AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.  GUIDANCE TREND HAS BEEN A              
BIT FARTHER SOUTH WITH TIME...WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACK NOW ACROSS               
IN/OH/LAKE ERIE.  GIVEN THE PENCHANT FOR SYSTEMS TO END UP TRACKING             
FARTHER NORTH SO FAR THIS COLD SEASON...MIGHT END UP LOOKING FOOLISH            
TO SAY THAT THERE IS REASONABLE CONFIDENCE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL                
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO OFFER JUST A GLANCING BLOW TO CENTRAL                
LOWER MI COUNTIES.  BUT THERE...I JUST WROTE IT.  AT THE VERY                   
LEAST...THE TREND HAS BEEN AWAY FROM US...UNLIKE IN PRIOR SYSTEMS               
WHERE THE TREND WAS FARTHER NORTH WITH TIME.  GIVEN THE CURRENT                 
TRACK OF THE WAVE...UNLESS SOMETHING FUNKY HAPPENS ALOFT...THE                  
NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY ROUTE LOOKS PRETTY GOOD.  SOME QG FORCING                  
SPREADS INTO NORTHERN LOWER...BUT PROVIDED MID LEVEL DEFORMATION                
ZONE SETS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER AS FORECAST...THEN THE MAJORITY              
OF THE ACTION WILL STAY OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.  WILL CARRY                   
HIGHEST POPS EAST OF AN APN-HTL LINE...CLOSEST TO PASSING SYSTEM TO             
THE SOUTH AND ACKNOWLEDGING POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHALLOW LAKE HURON               
LES TO GET GOING OVERNIGHT AS WINDS TAKE ON AN EASTERLY COMPONENT.              
NEW YEAR`S DAY TUESDAY...AS SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM LAKE ERIE...            
TROUGH AXIS WILL BE HANGING BACK ACROSS LOWER MI...EVENTUALLY                   
TURNING INTO THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD AIR DROPPING IN FROM                  
ONTARIO. LINGERING DEEP MOISTURE AND CONTINUED STEEP LAPSE RATES                
THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SNOW GOING ACROSS THE               
FORECAST AREA. BUT THE BIGGER PROBLEM MAY BE THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT...            
AND AM BECOMING INCREASINGLY CONCERNED ON THE LAKE MICHIGAN SIDE.               
ALTHOUGH 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL (STILL AROUND                 
-11C)...STEEP LAPSE RATES YIELD NO REAL INVERSION (FORECAST LAKE                
INDUCED CAPES CLIMBING INTO THE 400-500 J/KG RANGE DURING THE                   
AFTERNOON)...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PERSISTING...AND A FAIRLY                      
CONSISTENT WIND DIRECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY (340 DEGREES OR SO)           
TARGETS AREAS ALONG/WEST OF US-131 FOR DECENT SNOWFALL. INVERTED                
TROUGH AXIS A COMPLICATING FACTOR...THOUGH NOT FORECAST TO SWEEP                
INTO CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. COULD END UP                  
WITH AN AREA OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE TROUGH AND                   
ENHANCES SNOWFALL POTENTIAL. AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS...WILL START WITH              
HIGH END ADVISORY CRITERIA (4-6 INCHES) BUT AM CONCERNED ENOUGH                 
THAT BELIEVE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS WARRANTED FOR TUESDAY                  
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT FOR COUNTIES ALONG/WEST OF M-37. IF IT ENDS UP               
TRANSITIONING TO AN ADVISORY THAT IS FINE. INTERESTINGLY ONCE THE               
COLDER AIR ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT...INVERSION HEIGHTS BEGIN TO TANK              
AND WINDS WILL PROBABLY BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE FROM NORTHEAST TO                  
NORTH FOR A TIME. ALSO PLAN ON CARRYING SOME LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS              
ON THE LAKE HURON SIDE WITH NORTH- NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW ON                  
BACKSIDE OF SURFACE TROUGH.                                                     
MARINE ISSUES...NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT.  WILL NEED TO CONSIDER            
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AT LEAST AROUND THE NORTHERN LOWER NEARSHORE             
ZONES ON TUESDAY.                                                               
EARLY EXTENDED PERIOD (WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...NORTH-NORTHWEST              
FLOW LAKE EFFECT WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE INTO WEDNESDAY...                 
BEFORE DEEP LAYER RIDGING/STRONG HEIGHT RISES ALOFT PUSH INTO THE               
UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.  THIS WILL SHUT THE LAKE                 
EFFECT OFF AS WARMER AIR FLOODS NORTHWARD.  EXTENDED GUIDANCE STILL             
LOOKS DRY FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY EVEN AS WARM ADVECTION COMMENCES.                 
THURSDAY TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE SEASONABLY COLD...BEFORE A                 
NOTICEABLE WARM UP STARTS FRIDAY. NO CHANGES NECESSARY TO EXTENDED              
GRIDS (AS IF THE ABOVE ISSUES WEREN`T ENOUGH ALREADY).                          
JPB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                
     MIZ015>017-019.                                                            
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY              
     NIGHT FOR MIZ020-025-026-031-032.                                          
LM...NONE.                                                                      
LH...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
1048 AM EST MON DEC 31 2007                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND ACROSS THE OHIO                   
VALLEY TONIGHT...BRINGING AN AREA OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION.               
AS THE LOW MOVES EAST IT WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR AND SNOW                 
SHOWERS FOR THE NEW YEAR. THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL                      
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE                
FRONT.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
LIFR ST DECK AND FZFG CONTINUE TO STUBBORNLY HOLD ON ACRS PORTIONS              
OF CNTRL OH THIS MRNG. BACK EDGE IS SLOWLY MIXING OUT AND EXPECT                
MOST OF NE FCST AREA WILL BEGIN TO SEE SUNSHINE WITHIN THE NEXT                 
HOUR OR SO. ELSEWHERE SKIES WERE MSTLY SUNNY. MANY OF THE SLICK                 
SPOTS COURTESY OF THE PATCHY BLACK ICE THAT FORMED THIS MRNG IS                 
GONE AS TEMPS HAD RISEN ABV 32F IN MANY LOCATIONS.                              
MAKING SOME MINOR UPDATES FOR THE AFTN AS MID LVL DECK IS ALREADY               
QUICKLY APPCHG FROM THE WEST. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS WILL RAPIDLY                  
OVERSPREAD FCST AREA DURING THE AFTN WITH SKIES BECMG MSTLY CLDY                
IN MUCH OF THE FCST AREA BY LATE AFTN. TRIMMED PCPN ONSET BACK                  
ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO DURING THE ERLY EVNG AS 12Z NAM CONTINUES TO                
SLOW SFC LO PROGRESSION. ALSO DROPPED TEMPS BACK A DEG OR TWO AS                
CLOUDS FILTER IN.                                                               
12Z NAM CONTINUES TO TREND DEEPER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH SFC LO                 
TRACK TONIGHT. 00Z OP GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN FURTHER NORTH AND WEST                
AND WEAKER WITH SFC LO...AND 12Z RUC APPEARS TO BE MUCH CLOSER TO               
THIS SOLN. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF RUNS               
SHOW. CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS INDCG SFC LO DOES APPEAR TO BE TRACKING              
FURTHER SOUTH THRU WRN MISSOURI...AND IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE               
SFC LO IS CURRENTLY ABOUT 3-4MB DEEPER THAN MOST OF THE MODEL                   
GUIDANCE. WILL MAINTAIN SNOW ADV HEADLINES FOR JUST WEST CNTRL OH               
ATTM...AND WILL EVALUATE ALL OF THE 12Z DATA AND CONTINUE TO                    
MONITOR RADAR/OBS TO DETERMINE IF ANY ADJUSTMENTS IN THESE                      
HEADLINES ARE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTN.                                           
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.                                      
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                            
THE NAM AND NGM ARE A LITTLE FARTHER S THAN THE GFS/ECMWF AS THEY TRACK         
A BAND OF HEAVY PCPN ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES. THE GFS AND ECMWF                  
ARE A LITTLE FARTHER N...JUST TO THE N OF AOH. PREFERRED THE                    
GFS/ECMWF HANDLING OF THE SYSTEM. THICKNESSES SHOULD BE WARM ENUF               
FOR THE PCPN TO START AS RAIN...THEN CHANGE TO SNOW. NW COUNTIES                
SHOULD SEE A BAND OF 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN              
AN INCH ELSEWHERE.                                                              
SN SHOULD BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO SHSN FROM SW TO NE BETWEEN 06Z-                
12Z TUE. BEHIND THE LOW...THE FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE                    
FAVORABLE FOR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. KEPT HIGH                
CHANCE POPS...AND SOME LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE ANOTHER INCH OR TWO                
ACCUMULATION THROUGH THAT PERIOD.                                               
CAA NW FLOW ACROSS OPEN LAKES CONTINUES INTO WED. SHSN SHOULD BE                
A LITTLE MORE SCT ON WED.                                                       
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL FROM ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY TO BELOW                     
NORMAL. WENT CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE IN THIS               
PATTERN.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                  
NW FLOW LINGERS INTO WED NGT...SO KEPT A MENTION OF A SHSN IN THE               
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN LATE WED NIGHT AND WILL                   
CONTROL THE WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.                                    
SLY FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF HIGH PULLS MOISTURE N FROM THE GULF FROM                
FRI. BACKED OFF ON THE ONSET OF THE PCPN FRI DAY. LITTLE CHANGE TO              
THE FORECAST FOR SAT NGT INTO SUNDAY.                                           
NEW MOS GUIDANCE WAS COOLER. IN THIS PATTERN IT LOOKED APPROPRIATE.             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
WITH AN EXCEPTION OF A FINGER OF LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING FROM                    
WASHINGTON COURT HOUSE TO COLUMBUS...SKIES ARE RELATIVELY CLEAR                 
OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH PATCHY FREEZING FOG...MORESO IN THE                 
LOWER RIVER VALLEYS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CLEAR UP WITH THE                  
DAWNING DAY AND INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SOUTH SOUTHWEST                 
WINDS.                                                                          
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL SEE MID CLOUDS STREAM INTO OHVLY AHEAD OF              
IT THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW IS NOTED TO BE WITHIN 20 MILES OR SO                 
FROM WAPAKONETA BY 6Z TOMORROW NIGHT. PRECIP SHOULD STAY LIQUID                 
THROUGH ABOUT 4-5Z IN CVG/LUK/ILN...AN HOUR OR THREE LATER AT                   
CMH/LCK. DAYTON MAY ONLY SEE AN HOUR OR TWO OF RAINFALL AT THE                  
ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION AND THEN QUICKLY TURN TO ALL SNOW. MAIN              
DIFFICULTY WITH TAFS IS HAVING 3-5SM VSBYS IN SNOW WITH A 18-20KT               
SUSTAINED WEST WIND. CIGS SHOULD BE BTWN 1-2KFT FOR MOST OF THE                 
TAF SITES AS THE COLD AIR RUSHES IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS                    
QUICKLY EXITING SYSTEM.                                                         
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                       
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...SNOW ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR               
     OHZ026-034-035-043-044.                                                    
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...SITES                                                                
NEAR TERM...RYAN                                                                
SHORT TERM...SITES                                                              
LONG TERM...SITES                                                               
AVIATION...FRANKS                                                               
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
235 PM EST MON DEC 31 2007                                                      
...STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING FREEZING                          
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD...                           
...LONG DURATION OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH               
POSSIBLE GALE FORCE GUSTS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...                    
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA               
STILL DOMINATED BY LONG WAVE TROUGHING. SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE HAS            
BEEN PUSHED EAST AND NOW IS STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM THE SE GULF OF             
MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. STRONG SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN              
THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO DIG SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS               
THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SECONDARY PIECE OF                
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PUSHING RAPIDLY SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS              
AND WILL JOIN FORCES WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS            
TO CARVE OUT A LARGER AND MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH            
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.                                            
AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE                   
FORECAST AREA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE FOUND              
NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM KPFN TO KTLH AND KVLD. FURTHER SOUTH              
AND EAST CLOUDS ARE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD ASSOCIATED WITH A REGION              
OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ALONG THE 295-300K SURFACES. A FEW VERY LIGHT             
SHOWERS CAN ALSO NOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE EVENING HOURS SOUTH AND            
EAST OF A LINE FROM KAAF TO KTLH AND KVLD...ALTHOUGH ANY RAINFALL               
(IF ANY) SHOULD BE LIGHT AND SHOULD HAVE ONLY MINOR IMPACTS ON                  
OUTDOOR PLANS.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.                                 
FORECAST ATTENTION HAS SHIFTED TO THE APPROACH OF A STRONG ARCTIC               
COLD FRONT ARRIVING AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST. LATEST                   
GFS/NAM GUIDANCE BRINGS THE FRONT TO AROUND KDHN AND KABY BETWEEN               
07-09Z AND THEN EXITS THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND KCTY            
BY 14Z TUESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL STILL BE IN THE 50S ON              
TUESDAY UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH THE COLDEST AIR NOT             
ARRIVING UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MAKE IT               
FEEL COOLER. A DEEP TROUGH WILL HAVE CARVED OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN              
U.S BY SUNDOWN TUESDAY WITH THE TROUGH AXIS RUNNING THROUGH OUR                 
FORECAST AREA.                                                                  
LATEST GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE IS SHOWING 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO BETWEEN            
-7 AND -12C FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. 12Z               
NAM IS ACTUALLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER BUT IS AN OUTLIER                    
FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS AT THIS TIME. EITHER WAY...THIS IS A                     
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE COLD AIRMASS FOR OUR AREA. LOOKING AT IT                      
STATISTICALLY...THESE 850MB TEMPS ARE AROUND -4.0 STANDARD                      
DEVIATIONS FROM CLIMATOLOGY. TO PUT THIS IN PLAIN WORDING...A 4.0               
STANDARD DEVIATION EVENT HAS A LESS THAN A ONE HALF PERCENT (< 0.5%)            
PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE. SO...ALTHOUGH WE HAVE CERTAINLY SEEN                 
COLDER AIRMASS IN THE PAST...THIS IS STILL A VERY RARE OCCURRENCE.              
LOOKING FOR A WIDESPREAD ADVECTION FREEZE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO                    
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH MANY AREAS APPROACHING HARD FREEZE CRITERIA.             
FORECAST LOW TEMPS WILL BE BETWEEN 22 AND 28F DEGREES ALMOST                    
REGIONWIDE WITH NORTHERLY FLOW BRINGING THE VERY COLD AIR BASICALLY             
TO THE BEACHES. ALSO WITH THE SURFACE HIGH WELL TO THE WEST                     
RESULTING IN NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING THROUGH THE NIGHT...WIND                 
CHILL VALUES ARE LIKELY TO FALL INTO THE TEENS OVER A LARGE AREA.               
WITH TEMPS APPROACHING HARD FREEZE CRITERIA COMBINED WITH THE                   
EXPECTED EXTENDED DURATION OF TEMPS BELOW FREEZING WILL LIKELY HAVE             
A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT AND WILL ISSUE A HARD FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL                 
ZONES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. REFER TO OUR             
HARD FREEZE WATCH PRODUCT (MIANPWTAE) TO BE ISSUED DURING THE LATE              
AFTERNOON...OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON            
THE IMPENDING FREEZE.                                                           
SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE                
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINNING TO              
PUSH OFF THE EAST COAST. WITH THE LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AS               
COLD AS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO ONLY RISE              
INTO THE LOWER 40S NORTH AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S SOUTH. THIS WILL BE            
DESPITE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A DECENT GRADIENT FOR                  
DAYTIME MIXING. IF FACT...WITH 850MB TEMPS STILL BETWEEN -10 AND                
-11C DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER SE AL/SW GA...EVEN THESE NUMBERS MAY             
BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A STATION OR              
TWO ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS OF SE AL AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA                    
STRUGGLE TO 40F.                                                                
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.            
ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT A PERFECT POSITION...DO BELIEVE THE HIGH CENTER            
WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH AND THE GRADIENT RELAXED ENOUGH TO ALLOW                   
DECOUPLING. THE LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE WILL BE EXTREMELY DRY WEDNESDAY            
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE LIGHTER              
WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...SHOULD RESULT IN GOOD RADIATIONAL             
COOLING CONDITIONS. ANOTHER WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE IS BECOMING                  
LIKELY FOR ALL AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. AS WITH MOST                
RADIATIONAL COOLING SCENARIOS...THE SHORELINE IS LIKELY TO BE A FEW             
DEGREES WARMER...BUT EVEN HERE THIS WILL BORDER ON HARD FREEZE                  
CRITERIA AND CERTAINLY SHOULD BE LOOKING AT SUB-FREEZING TEMPS DOWN             
TO THE WATERS EDGE. LOW TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL TO BETWEEN 20             
AND 25 DEGREES INLAND AND 25 TO 30 DEGREES AT THE SHORELINE. A FEW              
NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS MAY EVEN EXPERIENCE UPPER TEENS. MAV                  
GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE ACTUALLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THESE                   
FORECAST NUMBERS...HOWEVER THE MAV HAS HAD A COOL BIAS THIS WINTER              
SEASON...ESPECIALLY WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING EVENTS. WHAT SHOULD BE             
UNDERSTOOD IS THAT AN EXTENDED PERIOD 10+ HOURS OF SUB-FREEZING                 
TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE FOR MANY AREAS WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY               
MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AROUND THE                   
REGION. ONCE AGAIN REFER TO OUR HARD FREEZE WATCH PRODUCT                       
(MIANPWTAE) FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.                                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...THU THROUGH MON.                                                   
THE ABOVE MENTIONED ARCTIC RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE BEGINNING OF THE             
EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROF REMAINS CARVED OUT                
OVER THE SE EARLY THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL              
RIDGING WILL STRETCH EASTWARD FROM TX TO FL AS THE ARCTIC HIGH                  
EVENTUALLY MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL              
ALLOW RETURN FLOW TO SET UP OVER THE REGION WITH GRADUALLY                      
MODERATING TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL MODERATE... LOW LEVEL              
MOISTURE WILL BE EVEN SLOWER TO RETURN...WITH THE NEXT REASONABLE               
CHANCE FOR RAIN NOT EXPECTED UNTIL MID WEEK OF NEXT WEEK.                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE FORECAST WATERS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL                    
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. FLOW WILL COME AROUND LATE THIS                     
EVENING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS IN ADVANCE            
OF A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE WATERS             
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH WIND AND SEAS RAPIDLY BUILDING TO                    
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALL LEGS. AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN               
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OUR WEST THE COMBINATION OF A TIGHT                 
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE WINDS             
EVEN FURTHER TUESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH SUSTAINED FLOW                  
BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE OVER A LARGE AREA. IT IS VERY                  
POSSIBLE THAT GUSTS...OR EVEN FREQUENT GUST TO GALE FORCE WILL OCCUR            
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS             
WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING TO THE                      
CAUTIONARY RANGE DURING THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO OUR                 
NORTH.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
KTLH AND KVLD WILL BE ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF A FRONTAL CLOUD             
BAND. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS WILL OCCUR WITHIN            
THIS CLOUD BAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE MOST LIKELY                
SCENARIO IS FOR PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH              
TUESDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY              
MORNING BUT NO RAIN OR SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS            
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...NW SURFACE WINDS OF 10-15KT WITH GUSTS TO 25KT ARE            
EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON                  
BEHIND THE FRONT.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY USHERING             
IN A MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO THE REGION. THE DRIEST AIR                
WILL NOT BEGIN TO ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING KEEPING ALABAMA AND              
GEORGIA ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS OF RH ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER OUR FLORIDA             
ZONES ARE EXPECTED TO SEE BETWEEN 2 AND 3 HOURS OF RH AT OR BELOW 35            
PERCENT COMBINED WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15+MPH AND HIGH                  
DISPERSION INDICES. THEREFORE...THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE                    
CONTINUED FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DESPITE HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY ONLY           
REACHING THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S...VERY DRY AIR WILL HAVE ARRIVED              
RESULTING IN ANTICIPATED LONG DURATIONS OF RH BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS             
FOR ALL AREAS...THEREFORE A FIRE WX WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY            
FOR ALL OF SE AL...SW AND SOUTH-CENTRAL GA...THE EASTERN FL                     
PANHANDLE AND FL BIG BEND. FIRE WX CONCERNS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE              
FOR ALL AREAS INTO THURSDAY.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  43  58  25  45  21 /  15   0   0   0   0                           
PANAMA CITY  46  56  28  47  26 /  10   0   0   0   0                           
DOTHAN       39  53  25  42  22 /   0   0   0   0   0                           
ALBANY       40  55  25  42  21 /  10   0   0   0   0                           
VALDOSTA     42  58  25  44  22 /  15   0   0   0   0                           
CROSS CITY   47  64  25  48  19 /  20  05   0   0   0                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...HARD FREEZE WATCH FROM 1100 PM CST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH                   
     1000 AM CST WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:                     
     COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...HENRY...HOUSTON.                                  
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:            
     COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...HENRY...HOUSTON.                                  
GA...HARD FREEZE WATCH FROM 1200 AM EST/1100 PM CST TUESDAY NIGHT               
     THROUGH 1100 AM EST/1000 AM CST WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE                  
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAKER...BEN HILL...BERRIEN...BROOKS...                    
     CALHOUN...CLAY...COLQUITT...COOK...DECATUR...DOUGHERTY...                  
     EARLY...GRADY...IRWIN...LANIER...LEE...LOWNDES...MILLER...                 
     MITCHELL...QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...SEMINOLE...TERRELL...                      
     THOMAS...TIFT...TURNER...WORTH.                                            
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:            
     BAKER...BEN HILL...BERRIEN...BROOKS...CALHOUN...CLAY...                    
     COLQUITT...COOK...DECATUR...DOUGHERTY...EARLY...GRADY...                   
     IRWIN...LANIER...LEE...LOWNDES...MILLER...MITCHELL...                      
     QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...SEMINOLE...TERRELL...THOMAS...TIFT...                 
     TURNER...WORTH.                                                            
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 12 PM EST /11 AM CST/ TO 7 PM EST /6 PM              
     CST/ TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...                     
     DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...INLAND                        
     WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY...               
     MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.                                   
     HARD FREEZE WATCH FROM 1200 AM EST/1100 PM CST TUESDAY NIGHT               
     THROUGH 1100 AM EST/1000 AM CST WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE                  
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...DIXIE...FRANKLIN...                       
     GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...INLAND WALTON..JACKSON...                        
     JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY..MADISON...TAYLOR...                
     WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.                                                      
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY                
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...DIXIE...                  
     FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...                      
     JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY...                        
     MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.                                   
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL LEGS FROM 7             
     AM EST/6 AM CST TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 7 AM EST/6 AM CST                  
     THURSDAY MORNING.                                                          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...FOURNIER                                                             
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA                                                 
LONG TERM...DUVAL/GOULD                                                         
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1223 PM CST MON DEC 31 2007                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISSUED 1155 AM CST MON DEC 31 2007                                              
UPDATE THE FORECAST TO EXPAND THE SNOW ADVISORY A TIER OF COUNTIES              
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND FOR EAST CENTRAL IL FROM 3 PM              
TO MIDNIGHT. ALSO INCREASED SNOW FALL AMOUNTS TO BETWEEN 2 AND 4                
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG I-74 THIS AFTERNOON AND                
EVENING. THANKS FOR THE COORDINATION FROM SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES.              
WRF...GFS AND SHEF MODELS SHOW 2 TO 4 INCH SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS                  
MUCH OF CENTRAL IL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH LOCAL HIGHER               
AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ALONG I-74. RUC MODEL UPDATE THROUGH 03Z               
SHOWS 1 TO 2 INCHES LESS SNOW AND MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-74.               
USED A BLEND OF THESE MODELS AND TRENDS WHICH HAVE BEEN GOING UP                
WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER CENTRAL IL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.                   
NOON SURFACE MAP SHOWS 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL MO AND                 
DEEPENING A BIT. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS EAST INTO CENTRAL IL SOUTH                
OF I-72 AND JUST NORTH OF CHARLESTON/MATTOON AND PARIS. LIGHT SNOW              
DEVELOP AT GALESBURG LATE THIS MORNING WITH VSBY DOWN TO 2 MILES.               
THIS DEVELOPING BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WAS OVER NW IL INTO SE IA AND                
NE MO AHEAD OF THIS LOW PRESSURE. TEMPS RANGED FROM THE UPPER 20S               
FROM PEORIA AND BLOOMINGTON NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S IN SE IL. ALOFT              
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WAS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THE TROF AXIS              
ALONG THE IA/NE AND MO/KS BORDER.                                               
MODELS DEEPEN LOW PRESSURE A BIT MORE AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN IL              
BY 00Z/6 PM AND DEEPENS MORE TO 1002 OVER NW OH BY MIDNIGHT AS                  
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS STRENGHTHEN INTO THE STORM. THIS SYSTEM HAS                
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND LIFT FROM STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET AND                  
DYNAMICS. AREAS FURTHER EAST OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN INDIANA WILL                 
LIKELY SEE MORE SNOW. FELT EAST CENTRAL IL TO HAVE HIGHER SNOW                  
AMOUNTS IN THE ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.               
SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM NW TO SE DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH              
FROM THE WEST DURING THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY AFTER 03Z/9 PM. WARM              
ENOUGH FOR RAIN THIS AFTERNOON IN SE IL FROM I-70 SE WHERE HIGHS                
40 TO 45. HAVE CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW SOUTH OF I-72 TO              
I-70 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE IT CHANGES TO ALL SNOW LATE.                   
GUSTY NW WINDS TO DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH               
TUE TO CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND USHER IN MUCH COLD              
AIR FOR THE NEAR YEAR.                                                          
HUETTL                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISSUED 1215 PM CST MON DEC 31 2007                                              
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL IL TAF SITES TO QUICKLY                   
DETERIATE THIS AFTERNOON AS SNOW DEVELOPS FROM THE NW. SNOW BEGINS              
AT PIA BETWEEN 18Z-19Z...AT BMI BY 20Z...SPI BY 21Z...DEC 21-22Z                
AND CMI BETWEEN 22 AND 23Z. HAVE IFR VSBYS DEVELOPING THIS                      
AFTERNOON WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS. VLIFR TO LIFR VSBYS OF 1/4 TO              
1/2 MILE AND LIFR CIELINGS AT OR BELOW 500 FT TO DEVELOP IN THE                 
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW BANDS TO SET UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND                  
EARLY EVENING RANGING FROM 22Z- 02Z AT PIA TO 00Z-04Z AT CMI. SNOW              
TO DIMINISH FROM THE WEST TO JUST FLURRIES AFTER 03Z WITH MVFR TO               
VFR VSBYS RETURNING. BUT IFR CIELINGS AROUND 1K FT OR LESS TO                   
LINGER THROUGH 18Z/TUE. LIGHT SE WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO                  
BECOME NW AROUND 12Z LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND GUSTY 25 TO 32KTS                 
TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING. THIS IN RESPONSE TO 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE               
IN CENTRAL MO THAT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN IL BY 00Z...THEN DEEPENS                 
TO 1002 MB OVER NW OH BY 06Z AND TO 997 MB OVER LAKE ERIE TUE MORNING.          
HUETTL                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
ISSUED 202 AM CST MON DEC 31 2007                                               
SEVERAL CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...PRIMARILY IN THE                  
SHORT-TERM. FIRST ISSUE WILL BE SNOW CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND                 
EVENING...THEN MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE WINDY AND COLDER CONDITIONS             
SETTLING INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.                             
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE BEGINNING TO GET                     
ORGANIZED ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS...IN RESPONSE TO 140KT 300MB JET               
STREAK TRACKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. PLENTY OF LOW AND                  
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM...HOWEVER               
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP JUST YET.                                           
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY                                            
00Z 31 DEC MODELS HAVE MADE AN ABRUPT SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH THE                  
APPROACHING SYSTEM FOR LATER TODAY...NOW KEYING IN ON THE UPPER WAVE            
TRACKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS RATHER THAN THE ONE FURTHER                  
NORTH CLOSER TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. END RESULT...IS A STRONGER                 
AND MUCH FURTHER SOUTH SURFACE LOW. BOTH NAM-WRF/GFS ARE IN GOOD                
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW...HOWEVER THE NAM-WRF IS                   
A TAD FURTHER SOUTH. BASED ON LATEST ANALYSIS...IT APPEARS NAM-WRF              
IS VERIFYING BETTER THAN THE GFS...SO WILL TREND TOWARD ITS                     
SOLUTION MOST CLOSELY. LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER KANSAS WILL                  
TRACK E/NE TO SAINT LOUIS BY 18Z...THEN TO NEAR TERRE HAUTE BY 00Z              
TUE. THIS PARTICULAR TRACK WOULD BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING         
SNOW TO THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE KILX CWA...MAINLY ALONG AND              
NORTH OF I-72. FURTHER SOUTH...PRECIP WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER AND                  
MUCH MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY...WITH            
CATEGORICAL NORTH OF I-72 TAPERING DOWN TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE                   
SOUTH OF I-70. MID AND LOW-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL INITIALLY              
BE RATHER DRY...SO ONSET OF PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED UNTIL                 
AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS. BASED ON NAM-WRF FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SNOW         
SHOULD BEGIN AT KPIA BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z...THEN FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH          
AT BOTH KSPI AND KCMI BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z.                                      
STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND FAVORABLE UPPER DYNAMICS WILL                  
LEAD TO A PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.                   
DESPITE THESE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS...TOTAL DURATION OF SNOWFALL                 
WILL ONLY BE BETWEEN 4 AND 6 HOURS...WHICH WILL TEND TO LIMIT                   
ACCUMULATIONS. THINK NAM-WRF QPF FIELD IS OVERDONE...SO WILL TRIM               
VALUES BACK A BIT...RESULTING IN A SWATH OF ONE TO THREE INCH                   
SNOWFALL ALONG AND NORTH OF I-72. BASED ON EXPECTED TRACK OF THE                
850MB LOW...HEAVIEST SNOW OF BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES WILL LIKELY                 
OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH OF A RUSHVILLE TO BLOOMINGTON LINE. FURTHER               
SOUTH...LITTLE OR NO SNOW WILL FALL ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 UNTIL               
LATER THIS EVENING WHEN MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW                 
PRESSURE.                                                                       
ONCE LOW TRACKS INTO INDIANA...INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL              
TRANSPORT MUCH COLDER AIR INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS TONIGHT INTO                    
TUESDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT WINDS IN              
THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE...WITH GUSTS AOA 35 MPH AT TIMES. THIS                   
COULD CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ACROSS                 
THOSE AREAS THAT PICK UP AN INCH OR TWO TODAY. IN ADDITION...STRONGLY           
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED                    
SNOW-SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP OUR EYES ON A                   
RATHER VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA AS                  
WELL...AS IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME ENHANCED SNOWFALL TO               
PARTS OF THE AREA. MODELS ARE NOT YET DEPICTING THIS IN THEIR RH                
OR QPF FIELDS...HOWEVER IT IS SHOWING UP IN FORCING FIELDS ALOFT.               
WITH STRONG CAA IN PLACE...TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE               
FROM EARLY MORNING LOWS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS                        
NORTHWEST...TO THE MIDDLE 20S FAR SOUTHEAST. VERY COLD CONDITIONS               
WILL BE ON TAP TUESDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER CLOUD COVER AND WIND SHOULD              
KEEP READINGS FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT. EVEN STILL...LOWS                  
WILL DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS THE BOARD. STRONG              
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN CLEARING               
SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS.                                                    
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY                                             
WARMING TREND BEGINS ON THURSDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES              
OFF TO THE EAST AND UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN. WITH EXPECTED                 
SNOW COVER...HAVE TEMPERED WARMING TREND SOMEWHAT...KEEPING TEMPS               
AT OR BELOW GUIDANCE THROUGH THURSDAY. AFTER THAT...MODELS CONTINUE             
TO ADVERTISE EVEN WARMER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH PERHAPS A               
CHANCE FOR PRECIP BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT.                                       
BARNES                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-                
040>042-047-048.                                                                
SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR ILZ043>046-055-057.                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
248 PM MST MON DEC 31 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
16Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED LONGWAVE TROUGH                  
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS...WITH RIDGING JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. 12Z            
RAOB DATA INDICATED A FEW 150KT JET STREAKS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW AT             
H3 WITH ONE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO AND ANOTHER ALONG THE              
EAST COAST. STRONG GRADIENT AT H7 WAS NOTED WITH -15C OBSERVED AT               
KDDC AND -6C AT KLMN...WHICH LINED UP FAIRLY WELL WITH AREA OF                  
CLOUDS THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT WAS WELL TO THE                
SOUTH OF THE CWA AND WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS.                          
OVERALL MODELS INITIALIZED WELL ACROSS THE AREA AND DIFFERENCES WITH            
LARGE SCALE FEATURES APPEAR MINIMAL BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS              
AT THIS TIME.                                                                   
TONIGHT...FIRST CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE POTENTIAL...IF                   
ANY...FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE                  
EVENING. KLBF SOUNDINGS SHOW FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER A GOOD               
DEPTH OF THE SOUNDING...WITH THETA-E LAPSE RATES BETWEEN H6 AND H5              
AROUND 0. GFS SHIFTS THIS POCKET OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY TO THE                
SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN FRINGE OF COUNTIES. IT IS INTERESTING THAT                
LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP ENOUGH THAT WARMING THE SURFACE TO THE LOWER              
30S WOULD BEGIN TO SUPPORT SFC BASED CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH IT WOULD             
BE VERY WEAK. ALTHOUGH STABILITY PROFILES LOOK FAVORABLE...FORCING              
APPEARS ABSENT AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY DROPPING                  
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WILL NOT BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA UNTIL AROUND              
06Z AND MUCH OF THE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND                 
EAST. PLAN TO MONITOR TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MAKING ANY FINAL             
CALL ON PRECIP POTENTIAL.                                                       
OTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE WIND/TEMPS AND RESULTING WIND                 
CHILLS. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...STABILITY AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH IS             
FAIRLY LOW AND SHOULD SEE A DECENT SURFACE RESPONSE AS TROUGH                   
APPROACHES. CONSENSUS OF RUC/NAM/GFS ALL KEEP WINDS UP THROUGH THE              
NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WINDS STAYING UP ALL NIGHT MAY             
ALSO BE WHAT LIMITS WIND CHILL POTENTIAL AS WELL. WEST NORTHWESTERLY            
WINDS WILL KEEP LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED SOMEWHAT PREVENTING                  
STRONG DECOUPLING. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE OFF THE SNOWPACK WHICH MAY            
OFFSET THINGS...BUT ALL IN ALL EXPECT A SIMILAR DIURNAL SWING TO                
LAST NIGHT. CURRENT MIN TEMP THOUGHTS SEE THE WESTERN HALF OF                   
COLORADO COUNTIES GET TO -13 TO -17 WIND CHILLS...MAINLY ACROSS THE             
WESTERN HALF OF EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH THINGS ARE                  
MARGINAL...THINK A SHORT WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE MORNING IS IN              
ORDER.                                                                          
NEW YEARS DAY/EVENING...SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO THE SOUTH            
AND EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS LARGE SCALE RIDGING            
AND SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO THE AREA. MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD                
WILL BE WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. CWA...ESPECIALLY EASTERN             
CWA WILL HAVE STRONG HEIGHT/TEMP GRADIENT BETWEEN BUILDING RIDGE AND            
DEPARTING TROUGH...RESULTING IN AN AXIS STRONG WINDS ALOFT ACROSS               
THE AREA. MODELS DIFFER IN THE ACTUAL STRENGTH OF THE WINDS WITH NAM            
THE WEAKEST...GFS THE STRONGEST AND RUC IN THE MIDDLE. WOULD TEND TO            
FAVOR THE GFS AS IT HAS SEEMED TO PERFORM WELL LATELY SO WILL LEAN              
MORE IN THIS DIRECTION. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST             
SHOW VERY WEAK SFC BASED INVERSION IN PLACE DURING THE MORNING DUE              
TO DEEP CAA BEHIND SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND SUPPORT GUSTS AROUND 40KTS            
AND POSSIBLY SUSTAINED WINDS APPROACHING 28-30KTS AROUND 18Z. SINCE             
OTHER MODELS ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WINDS...WILL HEDGE BACK A           
BIT FROM THE GFS AND NOT ISSUE ANY KIND OF WIND ADVISORY BUT WILL               
HAVE GRIDS NEARING ADVISORY VALUES IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.                      
SREF/NAM/GFS ALL CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHARP GRADIENT IN MAX TEMPS                 
ACROSS THE CWA...WITH COOLEST TEMPS ACTUALLY IN THE WARMER AIR MASS.            
GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WARMING ALOFT MAY BE TOO STRONG OUT              
WEST...PREVENTING MUCH OF A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER TO DEVELOP.             
WITH REMAINING SNOW COVER THERE THAT MAY NOT BE UNREASONABLE...BUT              
WITH CHANGING AIRMASSES BUMPED UP TEMPS A BIT IN THE WEST. OUT                  
EAST...DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD OFFSET COLDER TEMPS ALOFT             
AND THINK MAX TEMPS TOMORROW SHOULD ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER                
THAN TODAY.                                                                     
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE DIFFICULT SIDE AS MODELS A             
BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IN THE WARMER AIR WITH AMPLIFYING               
RIDGE. THINK THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE PRETTY OPTIMAL FOR                         
COOLING...BUT AM UNSURE ON THE IMPACT THE WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL                 
HAVE. KEPT THE GENERAL IDEA OF PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT WARMED TEMPS               
SLIGHTLY.                                                                       
WED-THUR...LARGE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA LEADING             
TO CONTINUED WARMING AND SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK SHORT               
WAVE TROUGH SLIDES ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ON THURSDAY                 
WHICH SHOULD BRING LITTLE MORE THAN INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE                
AREA...AS POINT SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERY STRONG AND DRY SUBSIDENCE             
INVERSION ACROSS THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND THROUGH            
THE PERIOD...TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY UNCERTAINTY OF SNOWCOVER IMPACTS.             
.EXTENDED (FRIDAY-MONDAY)...EC AND OPERATIONAL GFS IN GENERAL                   
AGREEMENT ON THE MEAN FLOW PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE            
ARE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THEM IN TERMS OF STRENGTH AND TIMING             
OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SET TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE             
EXTENDED. WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE TWO FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.            
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ON FRIDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH STARTS TO                
AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. WITH DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE              
SURFACE AND ALOFT AND H85 TEMPS APPROACHING +10C...FRIDAY MAX TEMPS             
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S SEEM REASONABLE. HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPS                
GOING OVER THE COLORADO COUNTIES AS I FEEL FAIRLY CERTAIN THERE WILL            
BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL SNOWPACK TO HOLD TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES THERE.             
FIRST IN THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA             
LATE SATURDAY BUT SHOULD BRING LITTLE MORE THAN A CHANGE IN WIND                
DIRECTION AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOR SUNDAY. GFS IS BRINGING THE             
SECOND ONE IN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING BUT FEEL IT MAY BE A              
LITTLE TOO PROGRESSIVE. WENT WITH THE SLOWER EC SOLUTION KEEPING                
PRECIP OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW.                                                
FOR MONDAY...CURSORY GLANCE AT THE 12Z GFS SHOWS A POTENTIAL WINTER             
STORM FOR THE AREA. 295K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWING STRONG UPGLIDE              
AND ADVECTION OF 6-8 G/KG MIXING RATIOS. THIS IS MORE IN LINE IN                
TERMS OF TIMING WITH THE 00Z/31 EC WHICH SHOWS A SIMILAR SOLUTION               
BUT KEEPS BEST FORCING...AND THEREFORE PRECIP...JUST TO THE NORTHWEST           
OF THE CWA. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AND POSSIBLY INTRODUCE PRECIP             
IN THE NEAR FUTURE IF THE MODELS COME INTO CONSENSUS. REGARDLESS OF             
PRECIP...MONDAY MAX TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH H85 TEMPS OF                 
AROUND -3 TO -5C.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH                 
SUNSET WITH DECENT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS            
INSISTENT ON KEEPING WINDS UP THROUGH THE NIGHT...THOUGH EXPECT                 
GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE AS BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES WITH SNOW STILL ON               
THE GROUND.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ090>092.          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JRM/CSF/JDK                                                                     
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
418 PM EST MON DEC 31 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
20Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED OVERALL               
BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...WITH A RIDGE BUILDING UP                 
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE WEST COAST. WITHIN THE BROAD TROUGH...THE MAIN              
FEATURES TO NOTE ARE A STRONG SHRTWV MOVING NE THROUGH MISSOURI...AN            
UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND A SHRTWV OVER NE BRITISH                   
COLUMBIA. A WEAK SHRTWV IS ALSO NOTED OVER NE MN. ASSOCIATED WITH               
THIS SHRTWV AT THE SURFACE IS A 1009MB LOW OVER ISLE ROYALE...ALONG             
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE WESTERN                
U.P. AS NOTED ON RADAR AND SURFACE OBS. 850MB TEMPS NEAR AND UNDER              
THE UPPER LOW WERE CHILLY...BUT NOT UNSEASONABLE WITH READINGS AT               
12Z OF -14C AT INL...-15C AT CWPL AND -17C AT CYQD. SOUNDINGS FROM              
ALL THREE SITES ALSO DEPICTED PLENTY OF MOISTURE...WITH NEARLY                  
SATURATED CONDITIONS FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 500MB. FARTHER                    
WEST...HIGH PRESSURE CAN BE SEEN BUILDING INTO TOWARDS THE PLAINS               
FROM THE WESTERN STATES...WITH A 1030-1040MB RIDGE STRETCHING FROM              
UTAH THROUGH ALBERTA. THE BACK SIDE OF THIS RIDGE IS WHERE WARMER               
AIR IS BUILDING UP...WHICH IS PROGGED TO HEAD EAST TOWARDS UPPER MI             
LATER THIS WEEK (SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR FURTHER DETAILS).                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT)...                                      
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE UPCOMING LAKE                
EFFECT EVENT.                                                                   
TONIGHT...UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL DROP SE TOWARDS THE             
MINNEAPOLIS AREA BY 12Z...WHILE THE STRONG SHRTWV OVER MISSOURI                 
LIFTS INTO OHIO. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW...THE MAJORITY OF             
THE COLD AIR SEEN ON 12Z SOUNDINGS WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTHWARD RATHER             
THAN EASTWARD...BUT STILL SOME OF IT WILL MAKE IT ACROSS LAKE                   
SUPERIOR. BY 12Z TUE...MODELS HAVE 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -12 TO               
-16C...COLDEST OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW.              
GIVEN THAT THIS AIR IS GENERALLY FLOWING FROM THE NW AND UPSTREAM               
SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY MOIST...THERE IS NO NEED TO WORRY ABOUT DRY                
AIR. HOWEVER...VERTICAL MOTION IS THE BIG QUESTION. SYNOPTICALLY                
SPEAKING...THE ONLY VERTICAL MOTION LOOKS TO OCCUR FROM THE SHRTWV              
OVER NE MN HEADING NE THIS EVENING. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME LOW CHANCE             
POPS ACROSS THE CWA FOR ANY LIGHT SNOW THAT THIS PRODUCES. GIVEN THE            
COLD AIR MOVING IN...THE OTHER SOURCE OF VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE THE            
INDUCED LAKE EFFECT. WITH THE SURFACE LOW OVER ISLE ROYALE PROGGED              
TO DROP SE...AND EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE SYSTEM HEADING UP TO                 
OHIO...A GENERAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SET UP FROM THUNDER BAY            
SE TO MUNISING. 950MB CONVERGENCE IS STRONGEST BEGINNING LATE THIS              
EVENING OVER THE WEST...IN PARTICULAR GOGEBIC AND ONTONAGON                     
COUNTIES. SOUNDINGS DEPICT IN THIS AREA THE MAXIMUM VERTICAL MOTION             
EVENTUALLY INTERSECTING THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AFTER MIDNIGHT...             
SUGGESTING SOME DECENT SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD OCCUR. THUS THE GOING              
HEADLINES OUT THERE LOOK REASONABLE. THE REST OF THE U.P. MAY SEE               
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AS CLOUDS STICK AROUND. THESE CLOUDS                
SHOULD HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES UP...WITH COLD ADVECTION THROUGH               
THE NIGHT THE MAIN FACTOR IN BRINGING READINGS DOWN. STAYED CLOSER              
TO WARMER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.                                                    
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW WILL HEAD DOWN INTO INDIANA              
BY 00Z WED AND THEN TO VIRGINIA BY 12Z WED. THIS TRACK IS STILL NOT             
ALL THAT FAVORABLE TO BRING TOO MUCH COLD AIR DOWN...AND IT REALLY              
IS NOT UNTIL LATER TUE NIGHT WHEN THE SHRTWV OVER NE BRITISH                    
COLUMBIA MOVES DOWN INTO WESTERN WI...BRINGING AIR IN MORE SIMILAR              
TO ARCTIC ORIGIN. THIS IS GOOD FOR THE PURPOSE OF LAKE EFFECT AS                
MUCH OF THE VERTICAL MOTION PRODUCED BY LATENT HEAT FLUXES WILL                 
INTERSECT THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THUS...THE AREAS OF 950MB                  
CONVERGENCE WILL DICTATE WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW FALLS. AT THE                  
SURFACE...THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FROM THUNDER BAY THROUGH MUNISING             
IS PROGGED TO SWING SOUTH. HOW QUICK THIS OCCURS WILL DETERMINE AT              
LEAST WHEN THE HEAVIER SNOW WILL GET INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL                     
U.P....SINCE WINDS TURN N TO NE BEHIND IT. THE GFS/CANADIAN ARE                 
SLOWER TO BRING THE TROUGH SOUTH COMPARED TO THE NAM/LOCAL                      
WRF-ARW...AND THUS HAVE DELAYED A BIT WHEN THE HEAVIER SNOW.                    
STILL...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A PERIOD FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON             
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH HEAVIER SNOW IN MARQUETTE COUNTY. BOTH             
SCENARIOS STILL LOOK GOOD FOR THE GOING HEADLINES IN GOGEBIC AND                
ONTONAGON COUNTIES...WITH THE STRONGEST CONVERGENCE STILL FOCUSED               
DURING THE DAY INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS IN GOGEBIC. WINDS TURNING               
NORTH AND THEN NE ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR EITHER THE KEWEENAW OR                  
LUCE/NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT...THUS NO HEADLINES ARE REQUIRED. SNOWFALL            
RATIOS OF 25 TO 1 ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE WINDS KEEPING THE RATIOS              
FROM GOING HIGHER. THESE RATIOS COULD GET HIGHER THOUGH ON TUESDAY              
NIGHT...THANKS TO COLDER AIR AND LIGHTER WINDS...BUT SYNOPTIC                   
MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO DEPART. THUS...SNOWFALL SHOULD DIMINISH IN               
INTENSITY LATER TUESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY              
CLIMB A FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY DUE TO CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION...AND            
COULD FALL IN THE AFTERNOON. BROUGHT TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES TUE                 
NIGHT DUE TO WINDS THAT APPEAR MORE NORTHERLY...RESULTING IN MORE               
CLOUD COVER.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)...                                   
WED...LES WILL CONTINUE FOR NW FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS AS 850 MB                 
TEMPS REMAIN NEAR -18C. THE LONGER FETCH AND GREATER INVERSION                  
HEIGHTS/MOISTURE DEPTH WILL BRING GREATER INTENSITY WITH LIGHT TO               
MODERATE ACCUMLUATIONS TO THE ERN CWA. OVER THE WEST...THE SHORTER              
FETCH LENGTH AND UPSTREAM DRYING FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD                  
RESULT IN MAINLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE              
REGION WED NIGHT...WINDS WILL STEADILY BACK WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW                 
SHIFTING OFFSHORE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT...ENDING ANY LES. A               
PERIOD OF DECOUPLED WINDS WITH CLEARING SKIES BEFORE SW FLOW                    
INCREASES LATE SHOULD ALLOS TEMPS TO FALL BLO GUIDANCE FOR INLAND               
PORTIONS OF THE WEST.                                                           
THU AND FRI...STRONG WAA WSW FLOW TAKES OVER AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH              
MOVES INTO THE WRN CONUS AND A BROAD/FLAT RIDGE EXPANDS INTO THE                
PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES. MDLS MOISTURE FIELDS SUGGEST THAT THE                   
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN TO DRY TO SUPPORT MEASURABLE PCPN.                          
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...ENOUGH MOISTURE FINALLY MOVES TOWARD THE REGION            
WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS BACKING AND ALLOWING GULF MOISTURE TO MOVE                 
TOWARD THE REGION. 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS PARTIAL THICKNESS FIELDS               
AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO SAT              
MORNING WITH A PERSISTENT 850-700 DRY LAYER. TEMP PROFILE WOULD BE              
BODERLINE FOR FROZEN PCPN BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY LIGHT                 
SNOW AT THIS TIME. WAA AND DIUNRAL WARMING SHOULD KEEP ANY LIGHT                
PCPN AS LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BY SAT AFTERNOON.                                 
SUN-MON...WHILE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE                
PATTERN FEATURING A BROAD TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS AND SW FLOW INTO              
THE GREAT LAKES...SIGNFICANT DIFFERENCES DEVELOP AND POOR RUN TO RUN            
CONTINUITY WAS OBSERVED WITH THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES                  
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF WAS FASTER WITH                    
STRONGER LEAD SHORTWAVE THAN THE 06Z/12Z GFS THE 12Z ECMWF IS NOW               
SIGNFICANTLY SLOWER. EVEN THOUGH A PERIOD OF RAIN IS LIKELY DURING              
THIS PERIOD...ONLY CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN              
WHEN IT MAY OCCUR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH            
MIN READINGS ONLY APPROACHING FREEZING. SFC-700 MB TEMPS SUPPORT                
ONLY RAIN. SOME OF THE MODLE SOLUTIONS EVEN SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR               
TSTMS WITH A STRONG SRLY LOW LEVEL JET AND SHOWALTER VALUES AROUND 0            
AND 850 MB DEWPOINTS NEAR 8C.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE FCST PERIOD AT BOTH            
TAF SITES...DUE TO A COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATING                 
AROUND LOW PRESSURE OVER ISLE ROYALE DROPPING SE AND LAKE EFFECT                
CLOUDS THAT DEVELOP TONIGHT. THE VISIBILITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE                
MORE TRICKY. FOR CMX...VSBYS SHOULD COME DOWN SHORTLY AS                        
OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOW -SN WITH VSBYS OF MVFR OR               
IFR HEADING TOWARDS THERE. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD GET GOING            
IN THE WAKE OF THIS -SN EARLY THIS EVENING AS WINDS TURN NW. SINCE              
MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH THE LAKE EFFECT                 
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ONLY LOW MVFR VSBYS WERE FORECAST. VSBYS            
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR VERY LATE IN THE NIGHT AND REMAIN INTO              
TUE AS COLDER AIR COMBINES WITH INCREASING WINDS TO CREATE MORE                 
BLOWING OF THE SNOW. AT SAW...VSBYS MAY TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO                 
DROP...SINCE -SN IS STILL MOVING NE THROUGH CENTRAL WI. STILL...AN              
MVFR VSBY LOOKS LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VSBYS SHOULD            
THEN IMPROVE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH MUCH OF THE SNOW MOVING             
E OR NE OF THE AREA. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS COMING OFF WESTERN                
LAKE SUPERIOR MAY BE ABLE TO DROP VSBYS TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT.                   
HOWEVER...THINK THE BETTER CHANCE FOR LOWER VSBYS WILL COME TUE                 
MORNING OR MORE LIKELY TUE AFTERNOON AS WINDS TURN TO THE                       
NORTH...WHEN LAKE EFFECT COMES OFF CLOSER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
LOW PRESSURE SITTING OVER ISLE ROYALE THIS AFTERNOON WILL DROP SE               
TONIGHT AND TUE. COLD AIR FLOWING IN AND PRESSURES RISING RAPIDLY               
BEHIND THIS LOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE 30 KT WINDS. MODELS HAVE COME               
DOWN A BIT ON WIND SPEEDS...BUT WITH THE RAPIDLY RISING                         
PRESSURE...FEEL A MENTION OF GALE FORCE GUSTS IS STILL REQUIRED.                
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 30 KT FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT AS A            
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES. BEHIND THIS HIGH...A TIGHTENING                 
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED ON THU AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS               
CENTRAL CANADA. SW WINDS STILL LOOK LIKE THEY WILL INCREASE TO GALES            
ON LAKE SUPERIOR FOR THU INTO THU NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH CENTRAL              
AND EAST AREAS. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 30 KT OR LESS FOR FRI               
INTO SAT AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST...BUT A SOMEWHAT TIGHT                    
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST                 
  TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MIZ009.                                                     
LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO                
  7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ005-006.                                            
LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS                      
  EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ002.                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE...AJ                                                 
LONG TERM...JLB                                                                 
AVIATION...AJ                                                                   
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1230 PM EST MON DEC 31 2007                                                     
.AVIATION...CURRENT VIS SAT AND SFC OBS...SHOWING CLDS HAVE                     
CLEARED OVER MUCH OF NRN MI...WHILE RADAR SHOWS A FEW LINGERING                 
LAKE BANDS OVR NW LWR MI. THEREFORE WILL KEEP SOME MENTION OF VFR               
CIGS AND VSBY OVR APN AND TVC THIS AFTN...WHILE KEEPING SOME MVFR               
CIGS AND VSBY OVR PLN THIS AFTN DUE TO SOUTHWEST LAKE EFFECT SNOWS.             
A STORM SYSTEM OVR THE MIDWEST...WILL CONT TO DEEPEN THIS AFTN                  
MOVING INTO THE NRN OHIO VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. AS THIS SYSTEM                 
MOVES TOWARD THE SRN LAKES TONIGHT...EXPECT IFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO               
MOVE BACK INTO THE NRN LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO TUESDAY.            
SWR                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...ISSUED 1033 AM MON DEC 31                                             
FAIRLY QUIET DAY ON TAP THROUGHOUT NORTHERN MICHIGAN...WITH THE                 
EXCEPTION OF LINGERING LAKE EFFECT BAND ALONG/SOUTH OF THE STRAITS              
WHICH REMAINS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE. BAND REALLY WENT TO               
TOWN OVERNIGHT OWING TO ONSET OF DEEP SYNOPTIC MOISTURE IN ADVANCE              
OF WEAK SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING THROUGH WISCONSIN AS WELL AS                      
PRONOUNCED 1000-850MB CONVERGENCE AXIS RUNNING THE LENGTH OF THE                
LAKE. BAND HAS SINCE WEAKENED WITH SOME DISRUPTION OF THE LOW LEVEL             
FLOW PER EARLY MORNING ONSET OF LAND BREEZE AS WELL AS PASSAGE OF               
WEAK UPPER WAVE AND LOSS OF -DIVQ. HOWEVER...OVERALL SFC FLOW                   
REMAINS QUITE CONVERGENT PER RECENT OBS AND LATEST RUC/NAM PROGS                
THROUGH 18Z...AND WITH DELTA T/S MORE THAN SUFFICIENT (MID TEENS)               
AND INVERSION HEIGHTS NEARLY NON-EXISTENT IN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP              
LAPSE RATES (850-500MB RATES RUNNING SOME 7.5C/KM)...FORESEE NO                 
REASON WHY SOME WEAK LAKE BANDING WON/T CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON             
FOR THE TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES.  THUS GOING ADVISORY LOOKS LIKE A             
GOOD DEAL AS A FEW SPOTS (MAINLY EMMET COUNTY) COULD PICK UP A                  
COUPLE FRESH INCHES INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE OVERALL PARAMETERS              
ON THE DECLINE PER INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ALOFT AND SHIFTING             
LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME AS OHIO VALLEY STORM BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE.                
ELSEWHERE...EARLY MORNING SYNOPTIC SNOW JUST ABOVE OVER AS WEAK                 
280-285K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WEAKENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF VORT AND              
DEPTH OF MOISTURE SHALLOWING. GIVEN LATEST RADAR TRENDS WILL JUST               
CALL IT FLURRIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION            
OF EASTERN UPPER WHERE WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW WITH                  
MOISTURE DEPTH HOLDING FIRM PER FORECAST RAOBS. OTHERWISE...A MAINLY            
CLOUDY DAY ON TAP AREAWIDE...THOUGH COULD SEE A FEW BREAKS THROUGH              
THE DAY (ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER WHERE FLOW WEAKLY               
DOWNSLOPE) BUT LIKELY NOT MUCH PER RENEWED PUSH OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS              
OFF TO THE SOUTH AND RESIDUAL THERMAL TROUGHING HANGING OUT                     
OVERHEAD. ONE FINAL NOTE...HAVE ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING FOG            
FOR MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH NOON AS OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW              
WIDESPREAD LIGHT FOG IN PLACE ALL THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH                
PUSH OF WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION UP OVER SNOWPACK AND SOME HELP                   
LOCALLY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW RUNNING UP INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HAVE            
ALREADY SEE LIGHT RIMING UP HERE ON THE HILL AND SUSPECT SIMILAR                
CONDITIONS IN PLACE CENTRAL CWA. LATEST NAM 30AGL COND PRES PLOTS               
SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS POTENTIAL...WITH SOME LOSS                   
EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM...THOUGH                
INTERESTING TO NOTE LATEST MAV GUIDANCE HANGS THE (RELATIVELY) LOW              
VISBYS IN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FOR INTERIOR COUNTIES.                        
LAWRENCE                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM EST MON DEC 31 2007/                         
DISCUSSION...NEW LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD 150W EARLY THIS                
MORNING WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR THE WESTERN               
LAKES TO USHER IN THE NEW YEAR.  THIS COLD PERIOD WILL BE SHORT                 
LIVED HOWEVER...WITH BIG TIME HEIGHT RISES AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW               
ALOFT SETTING UP FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.  SO LOOKING AT A              
WARM UP AKIN TO WHAT OCCURRED DURING THE EXACT SAME TIME PERIOD ONE             
YEAR AGO.                                                                       
FORECAST PROBLEMS IN THE NEAR TERM WILL DEAL FIRST WITH A NASTY                 
LOOKING SNOW BAND OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.  FOCUS THEN TURNS TO             
TWO SHORT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH MEAN CENTRAL NORTH AMERICAN MEAN               
TROUGH POSITION.  ONE WAVE SLIDING INTO NE/KS EARLY THIS MORNING...             
AND WILL ZIP THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT.  WILL NEED TO               
EVALUATE SNOW THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM...EVEN THOUGH THE BULK OF THE             
EFFECTS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  A SECOND WAVE SPINNING             
ITS WAY OUT OF NORTHERN MANITOBA PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL DIG               
SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC IN THE TUESDAY/                 
WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME AS LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE                 
EASTWARD.  THIS LATTER WAVE WILL HELP PULL COLDER AIR ACROSS THE                
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...AND WILL GET THE LAKE                  
EFFECT MACHINE GOING AGAIN LATER TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK.  FORECAST                
EVOLUTIONS IS SOMEWHAT COMPLEX WITH DECENT POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL               
TUESDAY. MORE ON THAT BELOW.                                                    
TODAY/TONIGHT...AT THE ONSET THIS MORNING...LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES             
WERE FALLING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...WITH A FOCUSED AREA OF                     
CONVERGENCE RESULTING IN A STRONG SNOW BAND OVER NORTHERN LAKE                  
MICHIGAN FROM THE MANITOU AND FOX ISLANDS NORTHEAST INTO THE STRAITS            
AREA.  RADAR RETURNS ARE IMPRESSIVE...WITH POCKETS OF 30-35 DBZ                 
RETURNS WITH RADAR ESTIMATES OF 1-2 INCH/HOUR SNOWFALL RATES.                   
FORTUNATELY...MUCH OF THIS IS OFFSHORE THOUGH THE NORTHERN END IS               
POKING INTO SOUTHERN MACKINAC COUNTY.  THIS BAND IS ACTUALLY JUST               
THE NORTHER END OF A BAND THAT SNAKES ITS WAY BACK INTO SOUTHERN                
LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH RADAR INDICATIONS OF ONE OR MORE MESOSCALE                 
VORTICES SPINNING ALONG THIS LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL AND              
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.  ON THE LARGE SCALE...SYNOPTIC LIGHT SNOW               
ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN FRINGES OF SMALL SCALE VORT CENTER NOTED ON            
WATER VAPOR SLIDING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LOWER...PROBABLY SOME                   
CONTRIBUTION FROM ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAVE OVER CENTRAL WI.  00Z UPPER            
AIR ANALYSES/SOUNDINGS SHOW DRIER AIR ACROSS IA/MO/IL THAT MOVE INTO            
LOWER MI LATER TODAY...WHICH COMBINED WITH LOSS OF FORCING SHOULD               
CONFINE CURRENT LIGHT SNOW PATTERN TO THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY FOR             
THE MOST PART.  IN ADDITION TO THE SYNOPTIC SNOW...REMNANTS OF THE              
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LAKE MICHIGAN BAND WILL BRING            
SOME BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW TO WESTERN LOWER FOR A TIME THIS MORNING            
AS THOSE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS HEAD INLAND.  BIGGER QUESTION IS WHAT              
TO DO WITH THE BAND OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN?  INDICATIONS ARE               
THAT CONVERGENCE WILL WEAKEN THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL FLOW FORECAST            
TO BECOME MORE UNIFORMLY SOUTHWEST.  BUT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE                 
COULD BE A SEVERAL HOUR WINDOW THIS MORNING WITH HEAVY SNOWFALL                 
RATES ACROSS PARTS OF CHARLEVOIX/EMMET/EXTREME NORTHERN CHEBOYGAN/              
SOUTHEASTERN MACKINAC COUNTIES.  EVEN AS THE MAIN BAND MOVES INLAND             
AND WEAKENS...SOUTHWEST FLOW LES PARAMETERS ARE NOT BAD EVEN WITH               
MARGINALLY WARM (AROUND -11C) 850MB TEMPERATURES.  LAPSE RATES ARE              
AT OR GREATER THAN MOIST ADIABATIC THROUGH 500MB...WITH FORECAST                
LAKE INDUCED CAPES A DECENT 400-450 J/KG THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE                  
DROPPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS 850MB TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM            
AND INVERSION BECOMES A BIT BETTER DEFINED WITH WEAK DOWNWARD                   
FORCING.  GIVEN THIS THINKING...WENT AHEAD EARLIER AND PUT UP AN LES            
ADVISORY FOR THE ABOVE LISTED COUNTIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.             
RAN WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 3-7 INCHES FROM NOW THROUGH LATE                      
AFTERNOON.  WANTED TO GET SOMETHING OUT BEFORE THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL             
RATES MOVED IN  (WHICH WOULD HAVE OCCURRED PRIOR TO SCHEDULED                   
FORECAST ISSUANCE).  JUST ANOTHER NORTHERN MICHIGAN SNOW "FLASH                 
FLOOD" EVENT...                                                                 
FOR TONIGHT...ATTENTION WILL BE FOCUSED ON SHORT WAVE COMING OUT OF             
NE AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.  GUIDANCE TREND HAS BEEN A              
BIT FARTHER SOUTH WITH TIME...WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACK NOW ACROSS               
IN/OH/LAKE ERIE.  GIVEN THE PENCHANT FOR SYSTEMS TO END UP TRACKING             
FARTHER NORTH SO FAR THIS COLD SEASON...MIGHT END UP LOOKING FOOLISH            
TO SAY THAT THERE IS REASONABLE CONFIDENCE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL                
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO OFFER JUST A GLANCING BLOW TO CENTRAL                
LOWER MI COUNTIES.  BUT THERE...I JUST WROTE IT.  AT THE VERY                   
LEAST...THE TREND HAS BEEN AWAY FROM US...UNLIKE IN PRIOR SYSTEMS               
WHERE THE TREND WAS FARTHER NORTH WITH TIME.  GIVEN THE CURRENT                 
TRACK OF THE WAVE...UNLESS SOMETHING FUNKY HAPPENS ALOFT...THE                  
NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY ROUTE LOOKS PRETTY GOOD.  SOME QG FORCING                  
SPREADS INTO NORTHERN LOWER...BUT PROVIDED MID LEVEL DEFORMATION                
ZONE SETS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER AS FORECAST...THEN THE MAJORITY              
OF THE ACTION WILL STAY OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.  WILL CARRY                   
HIGHEST POPS EAST OF AN APN-HTL LINE...CLOSEST TO PASSING SYSTEM TO             
THE SOUTH AND ACKNOWLEDGING POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHALLOW LAKE HURON               
LES TO GET GOING OVERNIGHT AS WINDS TAKE ON AN EASTERLY COMPONENT.              
NEW YEAR`S DAY TUESDAY...AS SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM LAKE ERIE...            
TROUGH AXIS WILL BE HANGING BACK ACROSS LOWER MI...EVENTUALLY                   
TURNING INTO THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD AIR DROPPING IN FROM                  
ONTARIO. LINGERING DEEP MOISTURE AND CONTINUED STEEP LAPSE RATES                
THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SNOW GOING ACROSS THE               
FORECAST AREA. BUT THE BIGGER PROBLEM MAY BE THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT...            
AND AM BECOMING INCREASINGLY CONCERNED ON THE LAKE MICHIGAN SIDE.               
ALTHOUGH 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL (STILL AROUND                 
-11C)...STEEP LAPSE RATES YIELD NO REAL INVERSION (FORECAST LAKE                
INDUCED CAPES CLIMBING INTO THE 400-500 J/KG RANGE DURING THE                   
AFTERNOON)...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PERSISTING...AND A FAIRLY                      
CONSISTENT WIND DIRECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY (340 DEGREES OR SO)           
TARGETS AREAS ALONG/WEST OF US-131 FOR DECENT SNOWFALL. INVERTED                
TROUGH AXIS A COMPLICATING FACTOR...THOUGH NOT FORECAST TO SWEEP                
INTO CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. COULD END UP                  
WITH AN AREA OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE TROUGH AND                   
ENHANCES SNOWFALL POTENTIAL. AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS...WILL START WITH              
HIGH END ADVISORY CRITERIA (4-6 INCHES) BUT AM CONCERNED ENOUGH                 
THAT BELIEVE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS WARRANTED FOR TUESDAY                  
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT FOR COUNTIES ALONG/WEST OF M-37. IF IT ENDS UP               
TRANSITIONING TO AN ADVISORY THAT IS FINE. INTERESTINGLY ONCE THE               
COLDER AIR ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT...INVERSION HEIGHTS BEGIN TO TANK              
AND WINDS WILL PROBABLY BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE FROM NORTHEAST TO                  
NORTH FOR A TIME. ALSO PLAN ON CARRYING SOME LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS              
ON THE LAKE HURON SIDE WITH NORTH- NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW ON                  
BACKSIDE OF SURFACE TROUGH.                                                     
MARINE ISSUES...NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT.  WILL NEED TO CONSIDER            
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AT LEAST AROUND THE NORTHERN LOWER NEARSHORE             
ZONES ON TUESDAY.                                                               
EARLY EXTENDED PERIOD (WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...NORTH-NORTHWEST              
FLOW LAKE EFFECT WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE INTO WEDNESDAY...                 
BEFORE DEEP LAYER RIDGING/STRONG HEIGHT RISES ALOFT PUSH INTO THE               
UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.  THIS WILL SHUT THE LAKE                 
EFFECT OFF AS WARMER AIR FLOODS NORTHWARD.  EXTENDED GUIDANCE STILL             
LOOKS DRY FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY EVEN AS WARM ADVECTION COMMENCES.                 
THURSDAY TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE SEASONABLY COLD...BEFORE A                 
NOTICEABLE WARM UP STARTS FRIDAY. NO CHANGES NECESSARY TO EXTENDED              
GRIDS (AS IF THE ABOVE ISSUES WEREN`T ENOUGH ALREADY).                          
JPB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                
     MIZ015>017-019.                                                            
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY              
     NIGHT FOR MIZ020-025-026-031-032.                                          
LM...NONE.                                                                      
LH...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT                                            
1202 PM MST MON DEC 31 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...MINOR UPDATE TO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON               
ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR FROM MISSOULA TO BUTTE.                                 
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN SWAN                 
VALLEY SOUTH THROUGH SEELEY LAKE AND ALSO OVER THE MOUNTAINS                    
SUROUNDING THE MISSOULA/BITTERROOT VALLEYS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS                  
WILL OCCATIONALLY MOVE OVER THE MISSOULA AND BITTERROOT VALLEYS                 
PRODUCING LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION AS THE MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST.              
I STILL EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS                
THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BRINGS A MARKED DECREASE IN                   
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY.                                                        
&&                                                                              
AVIATION...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL OBSCURE MOUNTAINS AND                    
PEAKS AGAIN TODAY. HOWEVER...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OVERNIGHT IN MANY               
AREAS ALLOWING PATCHY FOG TO FORM TUESDAY MORNING.                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM MST MON DEC 31 2007/                        
UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION                
AND SKY COVER FORECAST FOR TODAY.                                               
DISCUSSION...SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING HAS BEGUN TO                     
DECREASE IN ITS INTENSITY PER WARMING CLOUD TOPS ON INFRARED                    
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE LATEST RUC MODEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE                  
HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR SNOW SHOWERS TODAY WILL LIE ACROSS THE                  
SEELEY LAKE REGION AND OVER THE CLEARWATER/BITTERROOT MOUNTAINS                 
ALONG THE IDAHO/MONTANA BORDER. I ALSO RAISED THE CHANCE FOR                    
PRECIPITATION UP THE SOUTHERN BITTERROOT VALLEY AS I BELIEVE THE                
SHOWERS WHICH DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL OCCASIONALLY MOVE                 
OVER THE VALLEY. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED                
WITH THESE SHOWERS. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AS AN UPPER               
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO ESTABLISH IT`S REIGN                 
TONIGHT.                                                                        
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM MST MON DEC 31 2007/                          
DISCUSSION...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE                        
MOUNTAINS TODAY AS LINGERING MOISTURE TAKES ADVANTAGE OF LOW TO                 
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND AN UPPER LEVEL JET                  
STREAM THAT WILL MOVE OVER WESTERN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON.                      
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE                  
PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. AS SKIES CLEAR TOWARD DAYBREAK ON                      
TUESDAY...STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL STABILIZE THE VALLEYS.                
SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS AND                    
CANYONS. SOUTHEASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN                 
CONSIDERABLY ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...VALLEY LOCATIONS                  
SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX OUT. ALTHOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT                       
ORIENTATION IS NOT IDEAL FOR HIGH WINDS ON THE CAMAS PRAIRIE OF                 
IDAHO...THEY SHOULD STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE ISSUANCE              
OF AT LEAST A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY PERIOD.             
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE STRONG SOUTHERLY PRESSURE                  
GRADIENT SHOULD SCOUR OUT MUCH OF THE COLDER AIR TRAPPED IN THE                 
VALLEYS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WARM AIRMASS WILL BEGIN PUSHING INTO              
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM UP ON                      
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND PUSH SNOW LEVELS ABOVE SOME VALLEY FLOORS.              
THURSDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION                  
JUST ALONG THE IDAHO-MONTANA BORDER. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO               
APPROACH OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST AND WILL PUSH MOISTURE AND                    
ENERGY OVER THE AREA AGAIN ON FRIDAY. THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW              
FRIDAY WILL KEEP LOWER VALLEYS AS RAIN THROUGH THE DAY BUT CHANGE               
OVER TO SNOW BY SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH OVERNIGHT.              
THE WET PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE UPPER                
LEVEL TROUGH BROADENS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. MODELS ARE                
INDICATING A SURFACE LOW MOVING OVER THE SOUTHWEST MONTANA ON                   
MONDAY WHICH IS A GOOD SETUP FOR A SNOW EVENT ACROSS THE WEST                   
CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LENGTH OF TIME THIS              
IS OUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH AT THIS POINT.                               
&&                                                                              
.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MT...NONE.                                                                      
ID...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...DICKERSON                                                          
LONG TERM....FOSTER                                                             
AVIATION...DICKERSON                                                            
</pre> mt                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT                                            
1011 AM MST MON DEC 31 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION               
AND SKY COVER FORECAST FOR TODAY.                                               
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING HAS BEGUN TO                    
DECREASE IN ITS INTENSITY PER WARMING CLOUD TOPS ON INFRARED                    
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE LATEST RUC MODEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE                  
HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR SNOW SHOWERS TODAY WILL LIE ACROSS THE                  
SEELEY LAKE REGION AND OVER THE CLEARWATER/BITTERROOT MOUNTAINS                 
ALONG THE IDAHO/MONTANA BORDER. I ALSO RAISED THE CHANCE FOR                    
PRECIPITATION UP THE SOUTHERN BITTERROOT VALLEY AS I BELIEVE THE                
SHOWERS WHICH DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL OCCASIONALLY MOVE                 
OVER THE VALLEY. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED                
WITH THESE SHOWERS. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AS AN UPPER               
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO ESTABLISH IT`S REIGN                 
TONIGHT.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL OBSCURE MOUNTAINS AND                   
PEAKS AGAIN TODAY. HOWEVER...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OVERNIGHT IN MANY               
AREAS ALLOWING PATCHY FOG TO FORM TUESDAY MORNING.                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM MST MON DEC 31 2007/                         
DISCUSSION...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE                        
MOUNTAINS TODAY AS LINGERING MOISTURE TAKES ADVANTAGE OF LOW TO                 
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND AN UPPER LEVEL JET                  
STREAM THAT WILL MOVE OVER WESTERN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON.                      
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE                  
PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. AS SKIES CLEAR TOWARD DAYBREAK ON                      
TUESDAY...STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL STABILIZE THE VALLEYS.                
SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS AND                    
CANYONS. SOUTHEASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN                 
CONSIDERABLY ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...VALLEY LOCATIONS                  
SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX OUT. ALTHOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT                       
ORIENTATION IS NOT IDEAL FOR HIGH WINDS ON THE CAMAS PRAIRIE OF                 
IDAHO...THEY SHOULD STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE ISSUANCE              
OF AT LEAST A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY PERIOD.             
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE STRONG SOUTHERLY PRESSURE                  
GRADIENT SHOULD SCOUR OUT MUCH OF THE COLDER AIR TRAPPED IN THE                 
VALLEYS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WARM AIRMASS WILL BEGIN PUSHING INTO              
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM UP ON                      
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND PUSH SNOW LEVELS ABOVE SOME VALLEY FLOORS.              
THURSDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION                  
JUST ALONG THE IDAHO-MONTANA BORDER. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO               
APPROACH OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST AND WILL PUSH MOISTURE AND                    
ENERGY OVER THE AREA AGAIN ON FRIDAY. THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW              
FRIDAY WILL KEEP LOWER VALLEYS AS RAIN THROUGH THE DAY BUT CHANGE               
OVER TO SNOW BY SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH OVERNIGHT.              
THE WET PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE UPPER                
LEVEL TROUGH BROADENS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. MODELS ARE                
INDICATING A SURFACE LOW MOVING OVER THE SOUTHWEST MONTANA ON                   
MONDAY WHICH IS A GOOD SETUP FOR A SNOW EVENT ACROSS THE WEST                   
CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LENGTH OF TIME THIS              
IS OUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH AT THIS POINT.                               
&&                                                                              
.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MT...NONE.                                                                      
ID...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...DICKERSON                                                          
LONG TERM....FOSTER                                                             
AVIATION...DICKERSON                                                            
</pre> mt                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
216 PM CST MON DEC 31 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.                                         
WV SATL IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING IMPRESSIVE RIDGING BUILDING              
INTO THE WESTERN STATES WITH NEXT SYSTEM DIGGING OFF THE PAC NW                 
COAST. STRONG JET SEGMENT BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES WAS ADVECTING                
STOUT PAC MOISTURE INTO WESTERN CANADA. OVER THE REST OF THE CONUS...           
POLAR JET/LARGE BROAD TROF WITH EMBEDDED VORT MAXES ROTATING THROUGH            
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF WEST COAST OF GREENLAND. AT              
THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS TRACKING EWD THRU ERN MO WITH LEADING            
EDGE OF ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM MO TO SRN TX.                       
MEANWHILE...LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC AIRMASS INVOF USA/CANADA BORDER              
POISED TO SWEEP SWD INTO THE PLAINS/MS VLY LATE TONIGHT. REGIONAL               
RADAR PIX WAS SHOWING RETURNS PUSHING THRU THE DAKOTAS IN                       
ASSOCIATION WITH PASSING IMPULSE. NAM/GFS/RUC DO PLACE SMALL                    
AREA OF QPF IN THE CWA OVERNIGHT FROM POCKET OF LIFT WITH VIGOROUS              
SHORTWAVE ROTATING THRU. MOISTURE IS WEAK...THEREFORE THINK SLGT                
POPS BEST FIT FOR NOW. ARCTIC PLUNGE ON TUESDAY SENDS TEMPS                     
PLUMMETING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NRN CWA AND LOW TEENS SOUTH. CORE             
OF COLD AIRMASS SINKS SWD THRU THE DAY...AND EVENTUALLY SETTLES                 
INVOF THE OHIO VLY BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BY WEDNESDAY                      
MORNING...LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW LOWS TO FALL BELOW                 
ZERO. AFTER THAT...THE MUCH ANTICIPATED WARM UP BEGINS IN EARNEST               
WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S THURSDAY WITH THE                     
TREND CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED PERIODS.                                      
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY                                      
TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE THE PRIMARY CHALLENGES DURING THIS PERIOD.            
SNOWCOVER INITIALLY SHOULD HELP HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN. WENT WITH               
LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS             
FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 20S FROM              
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. SOME PLACES COULD BE A              
LITTLE WARMER THAN THAT...BUT WILL ADDRESS THAT ONCE IT GETS INTO               
THE SHORT TERM.                                                                 
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN. AT THE               
BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD...500 MB PATTERN INDICATES A RIDGE ACROSS              
THE CENTRAL CONUS AND TROUGH JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. THIS TROUGH               
DIGS INTO THE WESTERN U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE DOES MOVE              
OUT OF THIS TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS FOR SUNDAY.             
HOWEVER...MAIN ENERGY WILL REMAIN MUCH FARTHER WEST. 06Z RUN OF THE             
GFS STARTED GENERATING SOME LIGHT PCPN FOR AREAS TO OUR SOUTH AND               
EAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IT DID DID GENERATE SOMETHING               
IN OUR AREA SUNDAY...BUT HIGHER QPF WAS OVER MISSOURI AND IOWA. 00Z             
RUN OF THE ECMWF WAS DRY FOR OUR AREA. THE 12Z GFS DID SHOW SOME                
PCPN IN OUR AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.                                       
IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS START TO HAVE MORE AGREEMENT...WE CAN ADD SOME             
MENTION OF PCPN LATER. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE IS GOING TO BE A               
BETTER CHANCE FOR PCPN FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS THE                
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR TAF SITES KOMA...KLNK AND KOFK.                                             
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION HAVE RESULTED IN              
AN EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO NORTHEAST 1/4 OF                
NEBRASKA. GRADIENT AND NORTH SURFACE WIND FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO              
TUESDAY MORNING. SOLID CLOUD DECK CLOUDS IN 020-035 RANGE EXPECTED              
TO FILL INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA BY 00Z. SNOW FLURRIES ARE ALSO LIKELY             
TONIGHT AT TIMES WITH VISIBILITY GENERALLY GREATER THAN 3 MILES.                
PERSISTENT COLD ADVECTION FORECAST TO KEEP CLOUD COVER UNTIL AT                 
LEAST 18Z TUESDAY.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DEE/MILLER/SS                                                                   
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
353 PM EST MON DEC 31 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD                 
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A LARGE AREA                 
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY             
AND THURSDAY...BRINGING A COLD AND VERY DRY AIRMASS TO THE AREA.                
THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY                 
AND RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND.                       
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...                                      
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING OVER OFF SHORE                   
COASTAL WATERS WILL BUCKLE TONIGHT AS AMPLIFIED UPPER SHORTWAVE                 
TROF LIFTS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND PULLS THIS BOUNDARY                   
INLAND FOR A FEW HOURS MAINLY BETWEEN THE 06Z AND 12Z TIME FRAME.               
SREF NOT SHOWING MORE THAN A 40 PERCENT CHC OF ANY MEASURABLE PCP               
JUST ALONG THE COAST...MAINLY OVER THE CAPE FEAR AREA. RUC SHOWING              
PCP WATER REMAINING LESS THAN A HALF INCH OVER ALL OF THE CWA                   
EXCEPT A FINE LINE ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. AT THIS                 
POINT WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CONTINUE WITH MAINLY             
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THEN PUSH CLOUDS OVER COASTAL              
COUNTIES...BUT KEEP SLIGHT CHC PCP CONFINED TO OFF SHORE COASTAL                
WATERS. KEPT TEMPS UP A LITTLE BIT MORE ALONG THE COAST DUE TO                  
CLOUDS AND MORE EASTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT.                                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                   
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE                  
AREA TUE AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD LEVEL OFF BY MID AFTERNOON AND                 
THEN FALL DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. INFLUX OF DRY AND CHILLY                   
AIRMASS IS IMPRESSIVE WITH H8 TEMPS DROPPING TO -15 DEG C BY WED                
MORNING. WINDS WILL STAY UP TUE NIGHT...AND SO LITTLE VARIATION IN              
TEMPS FROM INLAND AREAS TO THE COAST. ALL AREAS WILL BE IN THE MID              
AND UPPER 20S BY 12Z WED. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL ADD TO THE CHILL                  
WED MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS DOWN IN THE TEENS. WINDS SUSTAINED AT              
15 TO 20 MPH WILL GUST TO AROUND 30 MPH AS HIGHER WINDS ALOFT ARE               
MIXED TO THE SURFACE. DEWPOINTS WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE                
DIGITS BY LATE MORNING WED...AN INDICATION OF JUST HOW DRY THE                  
UPCOMING AIRMASS WILL BE. EVEN WITH SUNSHINE...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE              
TO REACH 40 DEGREES WED AFTERNOON. COLDEST NIGHT THIS PERIOD WILL               
BE WED NIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. WINDS MAY NOT FULLY                
DECOUPLE UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT...AND SO THE FULL RADIATIONAL                  
COOLING AFFECTS WILL BE DELAYED. HOWEVER...ALL AREAS WILL BE WELL               
DOWN IN THE 20S WITH MANY COMMUNITIES IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS BY              
THU MORNING.                                                                    
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                         
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W ON THU                   
WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVING E AND OFF THE COAST BY                
SAT. UPPER TROF ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD AIR MASS MOVES OFF THE                 
COAST AS HIGH BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURES WILL STARTING TO MODERATE ON              
THU...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW CLIMO...BY 10                
DEGREES OR MORE. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NEAR CLIMO BY THE END OF THE              
WEEK AS SRLY FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH DEVELOPS.                     
GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A COASTAL TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE WEEKEND              
BUT THE LATEST ECMWF...WHILE STILL SHOWING A WEAK TROF...IS NOT                 
DEPICTING A FEATURE THAT WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE                  
REGION. GIVEN THE LACK OF AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF AND THE               
LENGTH OF TIME INVOLVED WITH THE FORECAST HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A             
CLOUDY BUT DRY FORECAST LATE IN THE PERIOD.                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                      
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES                
OFFSHORE...SWINGING THE WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST LATER THIS                       
AFTERNOON. GFS RATHER PESSIMISTIC...BRINGING RETURN FLOW OVERNIGHT              
WITH EVEN A CHANCE OF PRECIP. DID NOT LIKE THIS SCENARIO AND STUCK              
BASICALLY WITH THE NAM...WITH A HIGH STRATA CU CEILING WORST CASE.              
WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AND GUSTY OVER WESTERN TERMINALS TOWARD THE               
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE BEGINNING OF OUR FIRST ARCTIC                 
OUTBREAK OF THE SEASON STARTS.                                                  
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...LATEST OBS CONTINUE SHOWING TREND OF DECREASING             
SEAS. FRYING PAN BUOY NOW SHOWING JUST UNDER 4 FT. MODELS INDICATE              
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUCKLING AND GETTING PULLED BACK OVER THE                  
COASTAL WATERS TOWARD THE COAST TONIGHT WITH A WEAK SFC WAVE MOVING             
ALONG IT. HAVE INDICATED AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND RESULTING SEAS AS             
A RESULT...BUT KEPT REDUCED VSBY FROM PCPN JUST OFFSHORE.                       
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                                 
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...MODELS INDICATING THE STRONGEST INTRUSION OF                
DRY AND COLD AIR TO OCCUR 06Z-12Z WED. EXPECT THE ONSET OF SMALL                
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING TUE AND                    
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST WED EVE. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF GALE                 
FORCE WINDS OVERNIGHT TUE INTO WED MORNING. EVEN IF WINDS ARE NOT               
SUSTAINED TO GALE FORCE...WINDS WILL GUST WELL ABOVE GALE WARNING               
THRESHOLDS. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 6 TO 9 FT...WITH NEAR SHORE              
SEAS LOWER GIVEN THE OFFSHORE FLOW.                                             
LONG TERM/WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                          
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE DECREASING                    
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH SCA MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO            
THE LATER PART OF THU MORNING. WINDS SHOULD FALL BELOW 25 KT BY                 
MIDDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. WINDS WILL REMAIN NRLY THROUGH             
MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE W. E TO SE                
WINDS DEVELOP SAT AS CENTER OF HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST. SPEEDS WILL            
REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS FROM THU AFTERNOON ON AND SEAS WILL FALL FROM 3            
TO 5 FT THU MORNING TO 2 TO 4 FT THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT.                         
&&                                                                              
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SC...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY          
     FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NEAR TERM...RGZ                                                                 
SHORT TERM...RJD                                                                
LONG TERM...TRL                                                                 
AVIATION...DL                                                                   
</pre> nc