AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
955 AM EDT FRI APR 22 2005                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID/UPPER LOW OVER NW MO,                 
MOVING SEWD. STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION CLUSTERS DEVELOPING IN                 
DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW AND NOSE OF 90-KT JET STREAK APPROACHING THE TN            
VALLEY. 12 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER                
CNTRL IL, WITH A QUASI-STNRY FRONT EWD THRU THE CAROLINAS AND A                 
TRAILING COLD FRONT SWWD THRU AR INTO N/CNTRL TX. HIGH PRESSURE                 
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM WRN ATLANTIC ACROSS FL TO SRN TX. MID-LEVEL                  
SHORT WAVE ANALYZED BY THE RUC OVER SRN GA INTERACTED WITH OLD                  
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION TO TRIGGER SCATTERED                   
SHWRS/TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF SW/SCNTRL GA THIS MORNING. THE ACTIVITY            
CONTINUES TO MOVE SE TOWARD NRN FL. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS PARTLY TO             
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE CWFA.                                             
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM UPDATE (TODAY)...STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION ONGOING                
OVER TN VALLEY IS FCST TO MOVE SE TOWARD NWRN CWFA THIS AFTN.                   
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MCS.                 
INHERITED POP GRADIENT OF 70 NW TO 30 SE LOOKS REASONABLE, BUT WILL             
ADJUST TIMING TO MAINLY AFTN FOR NW/NRN ZONES. SPC'S LATEST DAY 1               
OUTLOOK /SWODY1/ HAS SHIFTED THE MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE WX WWD FOR            
TODAY, WITH A SLIGHT RISK AREAWIDE. 12 UTC TLH RAOB DEPICTS A MORE              
MOIST/UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE, WITH PWAT UP TO 1.14", LI OF -3 AND K OF             
30. FCST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LI'S LOWERING TO -5 AND CAPES AS              
HIGH AS 1500 J/KG LATER THIS AFTN. MAIN SEVERE WX THREATS WILL BE               
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS W/ BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AND LARGE HAIL. 0-3KM               
HELICITY VALUES APPROACH 200 M2/S2 THIS EVENING, SO ISOLATED                    
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. RECENTLY UPDATED THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER             
OUTLOOK /HWOTAE/ TO HIGHLIGHT THESE THREATS. FCST MAX TEMPS AND                 
WINDS IN LINE W/ CURRENT TRENDS.                                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE UPDATE...WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS AND 1-2 FT SEAS PREVAIL            
OVER THE WATERS, WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS ALONG THE COAST. SHORT               
TERM MODELS SHOW WINDS BACKING TO SWLY LATER THIS MORNING, GRADUALLY            
INCREASING THIS AFTN DUE TO TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF               
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL TWEAK WINDS TO REFLECT THIS TREND FOR              
THE LATE MORNING CWF UPDATE.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER UPDATE...NO CONCERNS TODAY.                                       
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...A FEW RIVER FCST POINTS ALONG THE AUCILLA, ST MARKS                
AND SUWANNEE RIVERS REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE, BUT ARE SLOWLY                    
RECEDING. LATEST QPF INDICATES AVERAGE BASIN AMOUNTS FROM A TENTH TO            
AS MUCH AS A HALF INCH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE              
IMPACT.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MAJ                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
1226 PM MDT FRI APR 22 2005                                                     
.DISCUSSION...BRIEF UPDATE THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO THE LET           
THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE. MOST LOCATIONS HAVE DROPPED BELOW ADVISORY            
CRITERIA...BUT WINDS WILL STILL REMAIN ON THE BREEZY SIDE.                      
OTHERWISE...RAISED A FEW MAXES SINCE WINDS ARE DIMINISHING AND                  
LESS MIXING IS OCCURRING. THE RUC AND ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS                    
ALSO SUPPORT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. EVERYTHING ELSE LOOKS GOOD           
IN THE SHORT TERM WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS BUILDING ALONG A JET              
MAX.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.KS...NONE.                                                                     
.NE...NONE.                                                                     
.CO...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MEHLE                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
800 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THERE HAVE BEEN MANY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL                   
KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHERN INDIANA. THE REPORTS INCLUDE A POSSIBLE                 
TORNADO NEAR LOUISVILLE...LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WIND. THE AREA              
IS UNDER A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.  THE               
LATEST RUC MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE MOST ACTIVE AREA WILL MOST               
LIKELY BE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA IN THE MONTGOMERY...BATH              
...ROWAN AND FLEMING COUNTIES. THIS IS WHERE THE GREATEST                       
INSTABILITY AND CAPE WILL BE. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
417 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2005                                                      
NEAR TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...                                     
SPC HAS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN A MODERATE RISK AND THE              
REST OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE              
PRIMARY THREATS. SOUNDINGS SHOW LI/S OF -7 AND CAPES AROUND 1500                
J/KG. CLOUDS ARE ALSO BEGINNING TO THIN OUT OVER MOST OF THE CWA.               
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POPPED UP OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF               
THE STATE AND SOUTHERN INDIANA AND WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA DURING             
THE EVENING HOURS. WENT CATEGORICAL FOR POPS TONIGHT ACROSS THE                 
BOARD.                                                                          
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE NEAR TERM ARE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF             
SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING AND THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING              
ACROSS EASTERN KY TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT TRICKY...WITH             
PLENTY OF CAA BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE             
DAY ON SATURDAY. WITH WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES...EXPECT ONLY LIGHT              
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 2500 FEET TOMORROW NIGHT. WRAP AROUND                  
PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO END ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS                
EAST. SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY            
NIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL                
BRING DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY.                                                 
EXTENDED (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                            
LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS ENSEMBLE FOR THE EXTENDED. MAIN CHANGES WERE             
TO LOWER TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES...AS THE PATTERN ALOFT SLOWLY               
TRANSITIONS FROM CYCLONIC TO ZONAL FLOW...AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES                
NORTHEAST. BUMPED UP POPS ON TUESDAY...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES              
THROUGH THE AREA. ENDED POPS ON WEDNESDAY...AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE             
PULLS EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF              
THE WORKWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY THROUGH THE END OF THE                   
WEEK...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA.                                   
1206 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2005                                                     
MADE MULTIPLE UPDATES TO THE FORECAST. HAVE GONE WITH CATEGORICAL               
POPS FOR ALL AREAS TONIGHT. LONG ANTICIPATED CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE            
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ARRIVING FROM THE WEST LATE THIS                           
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING...AND SEE NO REASON TO ARGUE WITH THE              
PERSISTENT HIGH MOS POPS. HAVE ALSO UPDATED TO LIKELY POPS FOR ALL              
BUT THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY                 
NIGHT. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD YIELD               
SHOWERS. THE MOISTURE WILL NOT BE AS DEEP IN OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.            
HAVE ALSO CHANGED SATURDAY TEMPS TO REFLECT STEADY OR FALLING                   
DAYTIME READINGS.                                                               
358 AM EDT FRI APR 22 2005                                                      
ONGOING TSRA AND SIGNFT CLOUD COVER SLOWLY TRACKING EAST ACROSS ERN             
KY THIS MORNING. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CONVECTION HAD PASSED BWG              
AS OF 3 AM. CLOUD COVER HAS SUPPRESSED THE POSSIBILITY FOR DENSE                
FOG...HOWEVER THE COPIOUS MOISTURE FROM THU CONVECTION HAS DROPPED              
VIS FOR SOME OF THE AREA TO VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 2 MILES. AS WINDS              
PICK UP IN ADVANCE OF THE CONVECTION...THE REDUCED VIS SHOULD                   
IMPROVE RAPIDLY. EXPECTING THE CONVECTION TO CROSS I-75 BY MID                  
MORNING. THAT PLACES ERN KY IN THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION DURING               
THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY. MDT RISK OF SVR WX SUPPORTED BY THE GFS            
WITH CAPE IN EXCESS OF 3200 J/KG AT 18Z WITH VERY VISIBLE DRY SLOT              
ON W/VP SAT AND RT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET. NAM NOT QUITE AS INTENSE             
WITH SVR PARAMETERS.                                                            
FNTL BNDRY LOCATED ON THE KY/TN BORDER THIS AM WILL SLIDE TO THE OH             
RVR BY MIDDAY WITH THE LOW TRACKING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CWFA.              
AS IF THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX WAS NOT ENUF...A SIGNFT POCKET OF                
COLD AIR (85H TEMPS AT 0 DEG C OR BELOW THRU MON) PORTENDS THE                  
POSSIBILITY OF -SW OVERNIGHT SAT INTO EARLY SUN. ANY ACCUM SHOULD BE            
VERY SLIGHT AND ONLY ON GRASSY AREAS AS THE GRND IS TOO WARM TO                 
SUPPORT. BETTER CHC FOR ACCUM WILL BE IN THE HIER ELEVATIONS OF ERN             
KY...ALONG THE VA BORDER AND EVEN THERE THE -RA THAT MIXES IN WILL              
LIMIT ACCUM TO A TRACE OR LESS. JACKETS WILL BE IN ORDER THIS                   
WEEKEND. WITH TEMPS TONIGHT DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 40S AND THEN                
REMAINING BELOW 50 UNTIL MONDAY AFT.                                            
EXTENDED HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH WITH THE LATEST MEX SO NOT MUCH TO                
CHANGE WITH THE FCST. LOW CHC POP WITH -SHRA ALMOST EVERY DAY AND               
NIGHT. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL ALLOW NUMEROUS WAVES TO PASS WITH EACH            
ONE A POSSIBLE CAUSAL FOR RAIN. TIMING THE BIGGEST PROBLEM BUT WITH             
OUT A PERIOD OF RECHARGE...EACH WAVE WILL HAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF             
SIG RH TO CREATE A HEAVY RAIN MAKER.                                            
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL              
MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ALL BUT PIKE AND MARTIN COUNTIES.                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JACOBSON                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC                             
1025 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2005                                                     
STRONG WAA SUPPORTING SHRAS AND ISOLD TSRA THIS EVENING. THIS LINE              
OF SHRAS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NORTH IN ADVANCE OF WARM FRONT            
CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVR SRN VA. LATEST 00Z RUC SUGGESTS RAIN ENDING              
BY 09Z WHICH IS SVRL HRS EARLIER THAN WHAT ETA SUGGESTS. NEW 00Z RUC            
SHOWS DRY SLOT ALG THE MASON-DIXON LINE BY 12Z. THIS SHOULD ALLOW               
AIR MASS TO DESTABILIZE DURING THE MORNING BFR CDFNT APPROACHES FROM            
THE WEST. SEVERE WX LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY TOMOROW AFTERNOON              
WITH ETA INDICATING STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EAST AND ALG FROM             
A FREDERICK MD TO IAD TO FREDERICKSBURG LINE BETWEEN 18Z-00Z.                   
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL LOOK THE PRIMARY THREAT GIVEN SHEAR VECTOR              
PARALLEL TO THE SFC BDRY. SPS WILL BE REISSUED SHORTLY TO EMPHASIZE             
SVR THREAT GIVEN INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN SVR TSTMS.                            
ROSA                                                                            
PREVIOUS AFD...                                                                 
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
SOMEWHAT OF A COMPLICATED SHORT TERM FORECAST IS ON ORDER FOR THE               
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SATURDAY WILL BE AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY FOR              
MOST OF THE CWFA.                                                               
STRONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST VIRGINIA IS APPROACHING THE              
WESTERN FRINGES OF THE CWFA. THE LINE SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT              
CROSSES THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ENTERS THE MARINE LAYER. THE LINE                
WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD...AND SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND WEST              
OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THERE SHOULD BE A MINOR BREAK IN THE RAINFALL                
LATER TONIGHT...UNTIL THE COLD FRONT BEGINS APPROACHING THE FORECAST            
AREA.                                                                           
THE ETA AND GFS ARE BOTH INDICATING THE WARM FRONT CURRENTLY OVER               
NORTH CAROLINA WILL QUICKLY MOVE NORTHWARD TONIGHT...PLACING THE                
MAJORITY OF THE CWFA WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR BY 06Z SAT. BELIEVE THE             
MODELS ARE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE WARM               
FRONT. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BEGIN PICKING UP SPEED AFTER 06Z SAT               
AND SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHERN MARYLAND BY 12Z.                          
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY TOMORROW AS SEVERAL INGREDIENTS                
COME TOGETHER TO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. A STRONG            
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...A NEGATIVELY TILTED 500MB TROUGH...AND COLD               
FRONT ARE ALL PROGGED TO MOVE EAST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION                 
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF             
THE FRONT DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS...AS THE CWFA WILL THEN BE              
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. CAPES AROUND 1500 TO 2000 J/KG...MINUS 5                
LIFTED INDICES...AND K INDICES AROUND 30 TO 35. IN ADDITION...A                 
JET STREAK WILL BE PRESENT...WITH SOME FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET                
DYNAMICS LENDING A HAND. BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...THE              
FRONT SHOULD BE JUST ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
CIGS ARE IFR IN MOST PLACES AVERAGING LESS THAN ONE THOUSAND FEET.              
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AROUND THE THRESHOLD VALUE OF IFR/MVFR                
RANGE OVERNIGHT. CIGS SHOULD THEN MIX OUT TO MVFR/VFR RANGE DURING              
THE DAY TOMORROW...HOWEVER VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED WITH THUNDERSTORM              
ACTIVITY.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY):                                     
.OBSERVATIONS: 500MB HEIGHT/ANOMALY PATTERN DURING THE PAST 5 DAYS              
SHOWS A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS HAS ERODED AS AN UPPER LOW OVER            
EASTERN CANADA BECOMES CUTOFF FROM THE POLAR FLOW. RIDING IS TAKING             
PACES OVER WESTERN CANADA AS A WAVE TRAVERSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE               
MIDWEST. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THIS WAVE PRESSING SOUTHEAST INTO               
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AS A SECOND REINFORCING WAVE                
DROPS SOUTHWARD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. 12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES             
A 1003MB OCCLUDED CYCLONE OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.             
A COLD FRONT STRETCHES SOUTH FROM THE TRIPLE POINT IN SOUTHEAST                 
ILLINOIS...WHILE A WARM/STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHES EAST INTO THE             
TENNESSEE VALLEY...THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS (DISPLAYING THE            
DAMMING RIDGE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC).                                         
.MODELS: 12Z NAM/GFS/CANADIAN ALONG WITH 00Z UKMET AND EUROPEAN ALL             
IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES DURING THE             
LONG RANGE. A DEEP UPPER LOW TRAVERSES EAST FROM THE TENNESSEE                  
VALLEY TOWARDS THE EAST COAST SUNDAY...BEFORE REPOSITIONING ITSELF              
OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                           
MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SECOND TROUGH BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL            
CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SWINGS NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FOR THE              
MIDWEEK. ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE DURING THE FORECAST             
CYCLE.                                                                          
.ENSEMBLE DATA: 00Z GFS 500MB HEIGHT ENSEMBLES SHOW A -3.5 STANDARD             
DEVIATION UPPER LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE SATURDAY                     
PROPAGATES TOWARDS THE EAST COAST FOR SUNDAY...BEFORE WEAKENING AND             
RECENTERING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A SECOND LOBE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE             
CENTRAL CONUS TUESDAY...WHICH MOVES TO THE EAST COAST LATE DURING               
THE MIDWEEK (DECENT AGREEMENT ON TIMING...WITH MORE VARIABILITY WITH            
REGARD TO THE DEPTH). FLOW BECOMES ZONAL FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED            
PERIOD.                                                                         
GFS ENSEMBLE MOS FROM THURSDAY NIGHTS RUN SHOWS MEAN HIGH                       
TEMPERATURES RISING FROM THE MIDDLE 50S SUNDAY TO THE MIDDLE 60S BY             
FRIDAY (WITH SOME VARIABILITY AS TO THE BEGINNING OF THE WARMING                
TREND). MEAN POPS REMAIN BELOW MENTIONABLE CRITERIA EXCEPT FOR                  
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.                                                          
.FORECAST RATIONALE: SEVERE THUNDERSTORM EVENT EXPECTED TO BE ENDING            
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA.             
WHILE DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND DECENT COLD ADVECTION WILL DRY THE LOWER               
LEVELS...KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH A GOOD DEAL OF THE               
NIGHT AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN.                                         
MEANWHILE...UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT WILL INITIATE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE            
LONG TERM ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.              
SYNOPTIC PATTERN (UPPER LOW JUST TO OUR NORTH) IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR            
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...HOWEVER COLD             
ADVECTION WILL NOT COMPENSATE FOR RELATIVELY COOL LAKE WATER                    
TEMPERATURES TO FUEL SYSTEM WITH MOISTURE. THINK THERE WILL BE A                
POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW...BEFORE MOISTURE WANES                  
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.                                                          
NEXT TROUGH WILL BE AFFECTING THE REGION DURING THE                             
MIDWEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA.                          
&&                                                                              
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
DC...NONE.                                                                      
MD...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION FORECASTER: NWL                                             
LONG TERM FORECASTER: ROGOWSKI                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   md                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC                             
1024 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2005                                                     
STRONG WAA SUPPORTING SHRAS AND ISOLD TSRA THIS EVENING. THIS LINE              
OF SHRAS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NORTH IN ADVANCE OF WAA                   
CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVR SRN VA. LATEST 00Z RUC SUGGESTS RAIN ENDING              
EARLIER BY 09Z WHICH IS SVRL HRS EARLIER THAN WHAT ETA SUGGESTS. NEW            
00Z RUC SHOWS DRY SLOT ALG THE MASON-DIXON LINE BY 12Z. THIS SHOULD             
ALLOW AIR MASS TO DESTABILIZE DURING THE MORNING BFR CDFNT                      
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SEVERE WX LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY                
TOMOROW AFTERNOON WITH ETA INDICATING STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT             
EAST AND ALG FROM A FREDERICK MD TO IAD TO FREDERICKSBURG LINE                  
BETWEEN 18Z-00Z. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL LOOK THE PRIMARY THREAT                
GIVEN SHEAR VECTOR PARALLEL TO THE SFC BDRY. SPS WILL BE REISSUED               
SHORTLY TO EMPHASIZE SVR THREAT GIVEN INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN SVR              
TSTMS.                                                                          
ROSA                                                                            
PREVIOUS AFD...                                                                 
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
SOMEWHAT OF A COMPLICATED SHORT TERM FORECAST IS ON ORDER FOR THE               
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SATURDAY WILL BE AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY FOR              
MOST OF THE CWFA.                                                               
STRONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST VIRGINIA IS APPROACHING THE              
WESTERN FRINGES OF THE CWFA. THE LINE SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT              
CROSSES THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ENTERS THE MARINE LAYER. THE LINE                
WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD...AND SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND WEST              
OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THERE SHOULD BE A MINOR BREAK IN THE RAINFALL                
LATER TONIGHT...UNTIL THE COLD FRONT BEGINS APPROACHING THE FORECAST            
AREA.                                                                           
THE ETA AND GFS ARE BOTH INDICATING THE WARM FRONT CURRENTLY OVER               
NORTH CAROLINA WILL QUICKLY MOVE NORTHWARD TONIGHT...PLACING THE                
MAJORITY OF THE CWFA WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR BY 06Z SAT. BELIEVE THE             
MODELS ARE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE WARM               
FRONT. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BEGIN PICKING UP SPEED AFTER 06Z SAT               
AND SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHERN MARYLAND BY 12Z.                          
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY TOMORROW AS SEVERAL INGREDIENTS                
COME TOGETHER TO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. A STRONG            
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...A NEGATIVELY TILTED 500MB TROUGH...AND COLD               
FRONT ARE ALL PROGGED TO MOVE EAST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION                 
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF             
THE FRONT DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS...AS THE CWFA WILL THEN BE              
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. CAPES AROUND 1500 TO 2000 J/KG...MINUS 5                
LIFTED INDICES...AND K INDICES AROUND 30 TO 35. IN ADDITION...A                 
JET STREAK WILL BE PRESENT...WITH SOME FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET                
DYNAMICS LENDING A HAND. BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...THE              
FRONT SHOULD BE JUST ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
CIGS ARE IFR IN MOST PLACES AVERAGING LESS THAN ONE THOUSAND FEET.              
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AROUND THE THRESHOLD VALUE OF IFR/MVFR                
RANGE OVERNIGHT. CIGS SHOULD THEN MIX OUT TO MVFR/VFR RANGE DURING              
THE DAY TOMORROW...HOWEVER VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED WITH THUNDERSTORM              
ACTIVITY.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY):                                     
.OBSERVATIONS: 500MB HEIGHT/ANOMALY PATTERN DURING THE PAST 5 DAYS              
SHOWS A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS HAS ERODED AS AN UPPER LOW OVER            
EASTERN CANADA BECOMES CUTOFF FROM THE POLAR FLOW. RIDING IS TAKING             
PACES OVER WESTERN CANADA AS A WAVE TRAVERSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE               
MIDWEST. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THIS WAVE PRESSING SOUTHEAST INTO               
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AS A SECOND REINFORCING WAVE                
DROPS SOUTHWARD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. 12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES             
A 1003MB OCCLUDED CYCLONE OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.             
A COLD FRONT STRETCHES SOUTH FROM THE TRIPLE POINT IN SOUTHEAST                 
ILLINOIS...WHILE A WARM/STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHES EAST INTO THE             
TENNESSEE VALLEY...THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS (DISPLAYING THE            
DAMMING RIDGE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC).                                         
.MODELS: 12Z NAM/GFS/CANADIAN ALONG WITH 00Z UKMET AND EUROPEAN ALL             
IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES DURING THE             
LONG RANGE. A DEEP UPPER LOW TRAVERSES EAST FROM THE TENNESSEE                  
VALLEY TOWARDS THE EAST COAST SUNDAY...BEFORE REPOSITIONING ITSELF              
OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                           
MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SECOND TROUGH BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL            
CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SWINGS NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FOR THE              
MIDWEEK. ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE DURING THE FORECAST             
CYCLE.                                                                          
.ENSEMBLE DATA: 00Z GFS 500MB HEIGHT ENSEMBLES SHOW A -3.5 STANDARD             
DEVIATION UPPER LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE SATURDAY                     
PROPAGATES TOWARDS THE EAST COAST FOR SUNDAY...BEFORE WEAKENING AND             
RECENTERING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A SECOND LOBE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE             
CENTRAL CONUS TUESDAY...WHICH MOVES TO THE EAST COAST LATE DURING               
THE MIDWEEK (DECENT AGREEMENT ON TIMING...WITH MORE VARIABILITY WITH            
REGARD TO THE DEPTH). FLOW BECOMES ZONAL FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED            
PERIOD.                                                                         
GFS ENSEMBLE MOS FROM THURSDAY NIGHTS RUN SHOWS MEAN HIGH                       
TEMPERATURES RISING FROM THE MIDDLE 50S SUNDAY TO THE MIDDLE 60S BY             
FRIDAY (WITH SOME VARIABILITY AS TO THE BEGINNING OF THE WARMING                
TREND). MEAN POPS REMAIN BELOW MENTIONABLE CRITERIA EXCEPT FOR                  
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.                                                          
.FORECAST RATIONALE: SEVERE THUNDERSTORM EVENT EXPECTED TO BE ENDING            
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA.             
WHILE DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND DECENT COLD ADVECTION WILL DRY THE LOWER               
LEVELS...KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH A GOOD DEAL OF THE               
NIGHT AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN.                                         
MEANWHILE...UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT WILL INITIATE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE            
LONG TERM ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.              
SYNOPTIC PATTERN (UPPER LOW JUST TO OUR NORTH) IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR            
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...HOWEVER COLD             
ADVECTION WILL NOT COMPENSATE FOR RELATIVELY COOL LAKE WATER                    
TEMPERATURES TO FUEL SYSTEM WITH MOISTURE. THINK THERE WILL BE A                
POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW...BEFORE MOISTURE WANES                  
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.                                                          
NEXT TROUGH WILL BE AFFECTING THE REGION DURING THE                             
MIDWEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA.                          
&&                                                                              
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
DC...NONE.                                                                      
MD...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION FORECASTER: NWL                                             
LONG TERM FORECASTER: ROGOWSKI                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   md                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC                             
1037 AM EDT FRI APR 22 2005                                                     
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST PACKAGE...MAINLY FOR                  
POPS AND TEMPERATURES.                                                          
THE LATEST RUC COORDINATES WELL WITH THE LATEST 88D IMAGES OVER                 
THE CWFA. THE SHORTWAVE THAT HELPED MAINTAIN THE EARLY MORNING                  
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE CWFA. RAIN HAS DECREASED              
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LINGERING OVER              
THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE CWFA. A BREAK IS EXPECTED THIS                     
AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN INCREASING              
FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON.                                   
MAX TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED DOWN A FEW DEGREES. SHOULD NOT BE                
ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TODAY...AND NOT MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE                  
RISE IS EXPECTED WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW.                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 359 AM EDT FRI APR 22 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...                                               
WATER VAPOR AND IR IMAGERY SHOW UPPER LOW IN THE PLAINS MOVING                  
EASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA AT 06Z. RUC...NAM AND GFS INDICATE            
A NEARLY ZONAL H5 FLOW BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW AND THE MID ATLANTIC.              
EMBEDDED LOBES OF VORTICITY ARE MOVING THROUGH THIS ZONAL FLOW AND              
LIFTING MOIST AIR NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NC              
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SHOWERS. VORTMAX            
OVER WV ATTM WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BY 18Z.               
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...SFC               
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY. THE                 
FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN VA AS A WARM               
FRONT. GFS AND NAM INDICATE INCREASING H85 WAA AND ISENTROPIC LIFT              
AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE A CONTINUATION OF                   
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. WITH BKN TO OVC SKY COVER TODAY...HIGHS              
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.                             
SFC LOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AS IT MOVES INTO WESTERN PA.            
MODELS SHOWING STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA               
AND H85 JET DEVELOPING WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 35 AND 50 KT. DIFFLUENT              
H3 PATTERN AHEAD OF THE NEGATIVELY TILTING TROUGH IN THE GREAT LAKES            
AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF H25 JET MAX SHOULD ENHANCE THE COVERAGE            
OF RAIN AND MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED                       
THUNDERSTORMS. GFS AND NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS PROJECTING 150 TO 300               
J/KG ELEVATED CAPE TONIGHT FOR A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.                  
INCREASED POPS FOR RAIN TO CATEGORICAL TONIGHT AND CONTINUED CHC                
POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS.                                                         
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                        
DEEP EASTERN STATES TROF WILL SET UP OVER THE WEEKEND WITH COLD                 
TEMPS AND EVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME SNOW IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS             
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.                                                          
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AM EXPECTING DRY SLOT TO WORK UP OVER THE REGION            
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND MIDDAY. THAT WILL LIKELY BE FOLLOWED BY             
A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE                 
FRONT ROLLS THRU NEAR TIME OF MAX DIURNAL HEATING.                              
THAT FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WINDS THAT WILL CONTINUE THRU              
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS CENTER OF UPPER LOW GRADUALLY ROTATES                
THRU THE REGION. SUN WILL HAVE NO TROUBLE AT ALL PRODUCING SOLID                
STRATOCU WITH 1000 TO 500 MB THICKNESSES AROUND 530DM. SUN WILL BE A            
COLD CLOUDY BLUSTERY DAY FOR THIS LATE IN THE SPRING. DAY TIME TEMPS            
NOT EXCEEDING 45 TO 55 OVER THE FORECAST AREA.                                  
MONDAY WILL MODERATE SLOWLY WITH WESTERLY FLOW BUT STILL A FAIR                 
AMOUNT OF MID LVL MOISTURE AND GRADIENT WIND...ALTHOUGH BOTH LESSER             
THAN SUNDAY.                                                                    
AVIATION...                                                                     
CIGS AND VSBYS IN SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS TODAY WILL                
PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS. MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS            
THE AREA TONIGHT AFTER 02Z AND CIGS WILL FALL TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY               
BELOW IFR WITH VSBYS REMAINING MVFR.                                            
MARINE...                                                                       
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE EAST TODAY TO THE NORTH OF THE                 
WARM FRONT. AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE                 
BAY TONIGHT...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT                     
CRITERIA.                                                                       
$$                                                                              
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
DC...NONE.                                                                      
MD...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...LISTEMAA                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   md                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
130 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2005                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME IFR                   
TONIGHT.  SOME OF THE UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING SOME            
SLEET (MORE NOTICEABLE WITHIN THE BRIGHT BANDING ON THE RADAR) WITH             
LAPS DATA SUGGESTING WET BULB ZEROS NEAR 2000 FEET.  THEREFORE, WE              
WILL ADD IN A TEMPO FOR SOME SLEET THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FNT AND                
MBS.  THEN BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS, WE WILL INTRODUCE RAIN/SNOW             
MIX FOR THE THOSE SAME TAF SITES TOWARD 12Z.                                    
BGM                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...  ISSUED AT 1150 AM                                                   
LATEST UPDATE IS FOR THE ONGOING RAIN.  LATEST RUC AND NAM HAS A                
GOOD HANDLE ON STRONG 850-700 FGEN WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS                   
BETWEEN M59-I69 THIS AFTERNOON.  PRECIP RATES BASED ON 1HR AND 3HR              
AMOUNTS ARE IN FORECAST QPF RANGE OF A TENTH TO ONE-THIRD OF AN                 
INCH.  THE DRY AIR MAY HOLD ON TIGHT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH BUT GIVEN             
RADAR RETURNS UPSTREAM...FEEL IT IS WARRANTED FOR SCATTERED                     
SHOWERS.                                                                        
BGM                                                                             
PREVIOUS UPDATE...                                                              
THE NORTHEAST FLOW HAS RESULTED IN A RAPID DECREASE IN PRECIP                   
COVERAGE.  LATEST VWP SHOWS THIS QUITE NICELY WITH MOST OF THE                  
REFLECTORS AT OR ABOVE 9K FEET.  POTENT SHORT WAVE WAS ROTATING                 
ACROSS MISSOURI AND WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL UNFOLD                  
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA TOWARD (OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER)              
NOON.  WE REMOVED THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST AS BEST LAPSE RATES AND             
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE PER LATEST             
1-HOURLY RUNS OF THE RUC.  TEMPERATURES LOOK GREAT WITH NO EDITS                
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.                                                            
LOTS OF TALK ABOUT THIS WEEKENDS EVENT WITH THE LATEST NAM PAINTING             
A VERY INTERESTING PICTURE WITH A MORE COMPACT 500MB LOW AND                    
IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE.  MORE TO FOLLOW SOON...                            
BGM                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION... ISSUED AT 710 AM                                                   
OF IMMEDIATE AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS                  
AROUND THE DETROIT AREA THIS MORNING. A STRONG AND COMPACT LOW                  
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER ILLINOIS WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE AREA            
DURING THE MORNING WHICH WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AND MORE INTENSE                
DURING THE AFTERNOON. MVFR VISIBILITY AND CEILING WILL DEVELOP                  
AROUND DETROIT, WITH SOME 2 MILE IFR VISIBILITY IN HEAVIER RAIN                 
SHOWERS AT TIMES. PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND                   
INTENSITY TOWARD FNT AND MBS UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN THE PATTERN WILL                
FILL IN THERE AS WELL.                                                          
IFR CEILING AND MVFR VISIBILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE AREA               
TONIGHT. RAIN WILL MIX WITH SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE             
SYSTEM DEEPENS NEAR LAKE ONTARIO AND COLD AIR MOVES IN FROM THE                 
NORTH.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT... ISSUED AT 335 AM TODAY                       
OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL ANALYSIS FIELDS SHOW THE EXPECTED COMPLEX LOW            
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING PRETTY MUCH ON SCHEDULE FROM NORTHERN                
ONTARIO, THROUGH THE MIDWEST, AND INTO THE TN VALLEY EARLY THIS                 
MORNING. THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT OVER ILLINOIS AND INDIANA IS            
FORCING AN ACTIVE PATTERN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHILE A                  
STRONG COLD FRONT IN NORTHERN ONTARIO SHOWS COLD AIR POISED TO MAKE             
A MOVE INTO THE REGION. THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE                 
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND ANY POSSIBLE STORMS TODAY                 
FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO AT LEAST MIXED RAIN AND SNOW TONIGHT.               
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW            
ALONG THE WARM FRONT TODAY, WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE OHIO VALLEY             
THAN TO SE MICHIGAN. THIS WILL KEEP THE 850 MB WARM FRONT NEAR OR               
SOUTH OF THE OHIO BORDER THROUGH THE DAY. 850 MB LIFTED INDEX IS                
FORECAST BY THE NAM AND GFS TO STAY WELL ABOVE 0C BUT WITH MID LEVEL            
LAPSE RATES STILL ADEQUATE FOR RESPECTABLE SHOWER ACTIVITY. PLAN IS             
TO TREND THE FORECAST TOWARD CATEGORICAL POPS LATER THIS MORNING                
AROUND DETROIT AND MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF THUNDER, WITH POPS                      
DECREASING TOWARD THE TRI CITIES AND THUMB WITH NO THUNDER NORTH OF             
DETROIT.                                                                        
HEADING INTO TONIGHT, EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN THE PRECIP PATTERN                  
AROUND THE TRI CITIES AND THUMB EARLY, BUT THEN FILL IN AS THE WAVE             
FROM CENTRAL CANADA MOVES INTO THE AREA AND HELPS BOOST MID LEVEL               
DEFORMATION. IT IS AT THIS POINT THAT THE COLD AIR OVER ONTARIO WILL            
BE DRAWN INTO THE PICTURE. MODEL FORECAST THICKNESS IN THE 1000-850             
MB LAYER DROPS TO AROUND 1296 LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT STAYS            
ABOVE 1300 AROUND DETROIT. STILL EXPECT A MIX OR CHANGE TO ALL SNOW             
BUT CLOSER TO SUNRISE THAN TO MIDNIGHT. GFS AND NAM FORECAST                    
SOUNDINGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 09Z BEING THE TARGET TIME. WITH            
THIS IN MIND, WE'LL KEEP ANY MENTION OF ACCUMULATION TO TRACE                   
AMOUNTS AND ONLY AROUND THE TRI CITIES.                                         
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
HISTORICALLY RARE STORM TO IMPACT THE EASTERN CONUS...AS 500 MB                 
HEIGHT ANOMALY TO REACH 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL.                     
THE STATISTICAL MOS GUIDANCE WILL USUALLY STRUGGLE IN A SITUATION               
LIKE THIS. MASS FIELDS BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS/ENSEMBLES ARE                 
CLUSTERED TOGETHER RATHER NICELY. UNFORTUNATELY...THAT DOES NOT                 
SPELL SUCCESS WITH THE ALL IMPORTANT QPF FORECAST. HOW WILL                     
CONVECTION ALONG THE EAST COAST IMPACT THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO              
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. OTHER THEN THAT UNCERTAINTY...IT DOES LOOK              
LIKE SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN IS IN THE PERFECT POSITION IN RELATION TO               
THE TROWAL AXIS. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO -6 TO -8 C SATURDAY               
NIGHT...PRECIP TYPE WILL NOT BE A CONCERN...ALL SNOW. A BLEND OF THE            
36 HOUR QPF (12Z SATURDAY TO 00Z MONDAY) FORECAST FROM THE NAM/GFS              
INDICATES 0.9 INCHES TO 1.4 INCHES. EVEN IF WE REALIZE THAT MUCH                
QPF...HOW MUCH SNOW CAN ACCUMULATE DURING THE LATE APRIL DAYTIME                
HOURS?? AS POINTED OUT IN PREVIOUS AFD'S...THE SOIL TEMPERATURES ARE            
VERY WARM...UPPER 40S. HOWEVER...THE THANKSGIVING EVE STORM PROVED              
TO US IF SNOWFALL RATES ARE INTENSE ENOUGH...THE SNOW WILL                      
ACCUMULATE. GRANTED...SOIL TEMPS WERE COLDER FOR THAT EVENT...LOWER             
40S.                                                                            
LOOKING BACK AT SOME CLIMATE RECORDS...IT IS POSSIBLE TO HAVE                   
WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL THIS LATE IN THE SEASON. SAGINAW RECEIVED             
13 INCHES BACK ON APRIL 29TH 1909.                                              
ALTHOUGH I WOULD SUSPECT A GOOD DEAL OF MELTING TO OCCUR DURING THE             
DAYTIME HOURS...STILL CONCERNED THE THUMB REGION WILL SEE WARNING               
CRITERIA IN THIS LONG EVENT. THE THUMB REGION LOOKS TO BEAR THE                 
BRUNT OF THE STORM...ESPECIALLY WHEN YOU FACTOR IN THE STRONG                   
NORTHERLY WINDS...WHICH SHOULD GUST TO BLIZZARD CRITERIA (FREQUENT              
GUSTS TO 35 MPH). 00Z NAM INDICATING 50 KNOTS AT 925 MB LATE                    
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. DON'T SEE 3 CONSECUTIVE HOURS OF 1/4              
MILE VISIBILITY HOWEVER. SINCE THE BULK OF THE SNOWFALL WILL NOT                
OCCUR UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY (PERIOD 4/5)...HELD OFF ON A                  
WATCH. WILL WORD THE POTENTIAL OF 5-10 INCHES IN THE HWO FOR THE                
THUMB REGION...WITH 4-7 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG THE M-59 AND I-69                 
CORRIDORS...WITH THE DETROIT METRO AREA SEEING POSSIBLY 1 TO 4                  
INCHES. KEEP IN MIND...THOSE ACCUMULATIONS ARE FOR THE COLDER/GRASSY            
SURFACES.                                                                       
STORM SYSTEM TO BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING               
PRECIPITATION TO WIND DOWN. 00Z NAM INDICATING 1000 TO 850 MB                   
THICKNESSES ABOVE 1300 M...SO WENT WITH RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY.                   
DIDN'T HAVE A WHOLE LOT OF TIME TO LOOK AT THE FORECAST BEYOND                  
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...BASED OFF THE 00Z GFS AND SURROUNDING                         
OFFICES...ADDED CHANCE POPS TO TUESDAY.                                         
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.MI...NONE.                                                                     
.LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...TONIGHT...OUTER BAY AND LAKE               
HURON.                                                                          
.LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                          
.MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BT/SF                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TO ADD GALE WARNING TO HEADLINE            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1110 AM EDT FRI APR 22 2005                                                     
.UPDATED...                                                                     
I MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.                  
MOSTLY I INCREASED THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO 90 PERCENT NEAR INTERSTATE             
96 AND LOWERED HIGHS A TOUCH IN THE RAIN AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON.               
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW A DECENT FRONTOGENETIC BAND SETTING UP               
NEAR I-96 THIS AFTERNOON. THE BAND SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASES IN                   
STRENGTH BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z THEN LARGELY REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH              
00Z. THE BAND AT 12Z MATCHED WHAT THE REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED VERY               
NICELY. SO...EVEN THOUGH THE 12Z DTX SOUNDING AND MODEL SOUNDING                
ALONG I-96 SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER BELOW 700 MB WITH THE 4              
G/KG OF WATER NEAR 700 MB... IT WILL NOT MATTER... THE RAIN WILL                
REACH THE GROUND. I KNOW THIS SINCE IT IS ALREADY DOING SO IN                   
BIV...LWA AND GRR AS I WRITE THIS.  ALSO THE MODEL RH IN THIS LAYER             
BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB IS ABOVE 90 PCT ON THE RUC...NAM AND GFS FROM            
JUST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 96 SOUTH TO INTERSTATE 80 BETWEEN 18Z AND              
00Z. ALSO THERE IS DECENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT BETWEEN THE TWO                     
INTERSTATE WITH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS NEAR 0 MB BETWEEN 18Z            
AND 00Z. POINT IS IT WILL RAIN BETWEEN THE INTERSTATE THIS                      
AFTERNOON. SO I INCREASED THE POP TO 90 PCT (REALLY A 100 PERCENT               
WOULD HAVE BEEN FINE TOO) AREA BETWEEN THE TWO INTERSTATE FOR THIS              
AFTERNOON. NORTH OF THAT IS REMAINS QUESTIONABLE HOW FAR NORTH THE              
RAIN WILL GET SO I LEFT THAT ALONE. HIGHS IN THE RAIN AREA WILL BE              
IN THE 40S THIS AFTERNOON.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE               
ENTIRE NEAR SHORE.                                                              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WDM                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1054 AM EDT FRI APR 22 2005                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE DROPPING S                
THRU MN/ERN DAKOTAS JUST UPSTREAM OF A VERY WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE              
OVER MO. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT RUNS FROM NEAR KIMT TO FAR SE LAKE           
SUPERIOR WITH A NARROW BAND OF -SHRA IN ITS WAKE FROM WRN LAKE                  
SUPERIOR ACROSS THE KEWEENAW TO NE LAKE SUPERIOR. BEHIND THE BAND               
OF -SHRA...NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW FLURRIES HAVE BEEN NOTED ON SFC              
OBS.                                                                            
UPDATE TO FCST WILL LARGELY BE BASED ON TRENDS/EXTRAPOLATION OF                 
FEATURES THIS MORNING. BAND OF PCPN WILL SLIP S THRU EARLY AFTN WITH            
MOST OF THE FCST AREA SEEING A 1-3 HR PERIOD OF -SHRA. SHOULD SEE A             
LITTLE SNOW MIXED IN OVER THE W AND N (MAINLY HIGHER TERRAIN) AS                
SHARP CAA DROPS 850MB TEMPS TO AROUND -3C JUST BEFORE -SHRA END. IN             
FACT...HAD A REPORT OF SOME FLURRIES AT MOHAWK ON THE KEWEENAW                  
AROUND 1430Z. SINCE SOME FLURRIES HAVE BEEN NOTED IN THE STRATOCU               
FIELD BEHIND THE SHRA...WILL INCLUDE NOTHING MORE THAN A MENTION OF             
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES AFTER MAIN PCPN BAND EXITS. TEMPS NOT LIKELY TO              
CHANCE MUCH OVER THE W AS CAA AND CLOUD COVER WILL COUNTERACT                   
DAYTIME HEATING. OVER THE CNTRL AND E...TEMPS MIGHT RISE A FEW MORE             
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY SE...BEFORE READINGS BECOME STEADY OR FALL.                
AS EXPECTED...WINDS HAVE INCREASED DRAMATICALLY ON LAKE SUPERIOR                
BEHIND COLD FRONT AND HAVE REACHED GALE FORCE AT ROAM4. OTHER                   
C-MANS/BUOYS ARE NEARING CRITERIA. GALES SHOULD BE RELATIVELY                   
SHORT-LIVED THIS AFTN (ROUGHLY 3-6HRS) DURING PERIOD OF STRONGEST               
CAA ACCOMPANIED BY APPROACHING 3HR PRES RISE MAX FROM THE N.                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
DISCUSSION FOR TONIGHT THRU MON ISSUED AT 515 AM EDT.                           
BEST CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS TONIGHT INTO SAT WHEN SHORTWAVE/            
CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES DOWN FM NRN MANITOBA AND 850MB COLD POOL OF              
-10 TO -12C TRACKS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THESE TEMPS ARE MARGINAL               
FOR PURE LAKE EFFECT GIVEN LAKE SURFACE TEMPS AROUND 2C ESPECIALLY              
CONSIDERING LIMITED MSTR AVAILABLE UPSTREAM. HOWEVER THE CNTRL AND              
ERN CWA MAY HAVE A CHC FOR ENHANCEMENT GIVEN ITS PROXIMITY TO                   
SLIGHTLY DEEPER AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND SOME DYNAMIC SUPPORT FROM THE            
UPPER LOW SO WILL KEEP CHC POPS GOING FOR CNTRL AND ERN COUNTIES                
WITH JUST FLURRIES WEST.                                                        
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SYSTEM REALLY DEEPENS QUICKLY OVER THE ERN                 
LAKES AS ENERGY FROM SECOND AND MORE POTENT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE                
DIGS INTO UPR TROUGH. AS DEEPENING SFC-8H LOW LIFTS NW TOWARD LAKE              
HURON MODELS SUGGEST DEEPER MSTR AND ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY WRAP BACK              
INTO FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY INTO THE ERN COUNTIES...BRINGING A                  
BETTER CHC OF PCPN FOR THESE DAYS. 850 MB TEMPS WARM SLIGHTLY BUT               
WITH A CORE OF -5 TO -7C TEMPS OVER AREA...THIS WILL BE PLENTY COLD             
ENOUGH POTENTIAL LAKE ENHANCEMENT OVER CNTRL AND ERN COUNTIES. SO               
WILL KEEP HIGHER CHC POPS GOING FOR NOW AND COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS            
PER MODEL GUIDANCE.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...GALE WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR.                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ROLFSON (DISCUSSION)                                                            
VOSS (PREV DISCUSSION)                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1025 AM EDT FRI APR 22 2005                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
THE NORTHEAST FLOW HAS RESULTED IN A RAPID DECREASE IN PRECIP                   
COVERAGE.  LATEST VWP SHOWS THIS QUITE NICELY WITH MOST OF THE                  
REFLECTORS AT OR ABOVE 9K FEET.  POTENT SHORT WAVE WAS ROTATING                 
ACROSS MISSOURI AND WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL UNFOLD                  
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA TOWARD (OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER)              
NOON.  WE REMOVED THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST AS BEST LAPSE RATES AND             
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE PER LATEST             
1-HOURLY RUNS OF THE RUC.  TEMPERATURES LOOK GREAT WITH NO EDITS                
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.                                                            
LOTS OF TALK ABOUT THIS WEEKENDS EVENT WITH THE LATEST NAM PAINTING             
A VERY INTERESTING PICTURE WITH A MORE COMPACT 500MB LOW AND                    
IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE.  MORE TO FOLLOW SOON...                            
BGM                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION... ISSUED AT 710 AM                                                   
OF IMMEDIATE AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS                  
AROUND THE DETROIT AREA THIS MORNING. A STRONG AND COMPACT LOW                  
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER ILLINOIS WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE AREA            
DURING THE MORNING WHICH WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AND MORE INTENSE                
DURING THE AFTERNOON. MVFR VISIBILITY AND CEILING WILL DEVELOP                  
AROUND DETROIT, WITH SOME 2 MILE IFR VISIBILITY IN HEAVIER RAIN                 
SHOWERS AT TIMES. PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND                   
INTENSITY TOWARD FNT AND MBS UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN THE PATTERN WILL                
FILL IN THERE AS WELL.                                                          
IFR CEILING AND MVFR VISIBILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE AREA               
TONIGHT. RAIN WILL MIX WITH SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE             
SYSTEM DEEPENS NEAR LAKE ONTARIO AND COLD AIR MOVES IN FROM THE                 
NORTH.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT... ISSUED AT 335 AM TODAY                       
OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL ANALYSIS FIELDS SHOW THE EXPECTED COMPLEX LOW            
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING PRETTY MUCH ON SCHEDULE FROM NORTHERN                
ONTARIO, THROUGH THE MIDWEST, AND INTO THE TN VALLEY EARLY THIS                 
MORNING. THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT OVER ILLINOIS AND INDIANA IS            
FORCING AN ACTIVE PATTERN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHILE A                  
STRONG COLD FRONT IN NORTHERN ONTARIO SHOWS COLD AIR POISED TO MAKE             
A MOVE INTO THE REGION. THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE                 
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND ANY POSSIBLE STORMS TODAY                 
FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO AT LEAST MIXED RAIN AND SNOW TONIGHT.               
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW            
ALONG THE WARM FRONT TODAY, WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE OHIO VALLEY             
THAN TO SE MICHIGAN. THIS WILL KEEP THE 850 MB WARM FRONT NEAR OR               
SOUTH OF THE OHIO BORDER THROUGH THE DAY. 850 MB LIFTED INDEX IS                
FORECAST BY THE NAM AND GFS TO STAY WELL ABOVE 0C BUT WITH MID LEVEL            
LAPSE RATES STILL ADEQUATE FOR RESPECTABLE SHOWER ACTIVITY. PLAN IS             
TO TREND THE FORECAST TOWARD CATEGORICAL POPS LATER THIS MORNING                
AROUND DETROIT AND MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF THUNDER, WITH POPS                      
DECREASING TOWARD THE TRI CITIES AND THUMB WITH NO THUNDER NORTH OF             
DETROIT.                                                                        
HEADING INTO TONIGHT, EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN THE PRECIP PATTERN                  
AROUND THE TRI CITIES AND THUMB EARLY, BUT THEN FILL IN AS THE WAVE             
FROM CENTRAL CANADA MOVES INTO THE AREA AND HELPS BOOST MID LEVEL               
DEFORMATION. IT IS AT THIS POINT THAT THE COLD AIR OVER ONTARIO WILL            
BE DRAWN INTO THE PICTURE. MODEL FORECAST THICKNESS IN THE 1000-850             
MB LAYER DROPS TO AROUND 1296 LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT STAYS            
ABOVE 1300 AROUND DETROIT. STILL EXPECT A MIX OR CHANGE TO ALL SNOW             
BUT CLOSER TO SUNRISE THAN TO MIDNIGHT. GFS AND NAM FORECAST                    
SOUNDINGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 09Z BEING THE TARGET TIME. WITH            
THIS IN MIND, WE'LL KEEP ANY MENTION OF ACCUMULATION TO TRACE                   
AMOUNTS AND ONLY AROUND THE TRI CITIES.                                         
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
HISTORICALLY RARE STORM TO IMPACT THE EASTERN CONUS...AS 500 MB                 
HEIGHT ANOMALY TO REACH 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL.                     
THE STATISTICAL MOS GUIDANCE WILL USUALLY STRUGGLE IN A SITUATION               
LIKE THIS. MASS FIELDS BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS/ENSEMBLES ARE                 
CLUSTERED TOGETHER RATHER NICELY. UNFORTUNATELY...THAT DOES NOT                 
SPELL SUCCESS WITH THE ALL IMPORTANT QPF FORECAST. HOW WILL                     
CONVECTION ALONG THE EAST COAST IMPACT THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO              
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. OTHER THEN THAT UNCERTAINTY...IT DOES LOOK              
LIKE SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN IS IN THE PERFECT POSITION IN RELATION TO               
THE TROWAL AXIS. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO -6 TO -8 C SATURDAY               
NIGHT...PRECIP TYPE WILL NOT BE A CONCERN...ALL SNOW. A BLEND OF THE            
36 HOUR QPF (12Z SATURDAY TO 00Z MONDAY) FORECAST FROM THE NAM/GFS              
INDICATES 0.9 INCHES TO 1.4 INCHES. EVEN IF WE REALIZE THAT MUCH                
QPF...HOW MUCH SNOW CAN ACCUMULATE DURING THE LATE APRIL DAYTIME                
HOURS?? AS POINTED OUT IN PREVIOUS AFD'S...THE SOIL TEMPERATURES ARE            
VERY WARM...UPPER 40S. HOWEVER...THE THANKSGIVING EVE STORM PROVED              
TO US IF SNOWFALL RATES ARE INTENSE ENOUGH...THE SNOW WILL                      
ACCUMULATE. GRANTED...SOIL TEMPS WERE COLDER FOR THAT EVENT...LOWER             
40S.                                                                            
LOOKING BACK AT SOME CLIMATE RECORDS...IT IS POSSIBLE TO HAVE                   
WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL THIS LATE IN THE SEASON. SAGINAW RECEIVED             
13 INCHES BACK ON APRIL 29TH 1909.                                              
ALTHOUGH I WOULD SUSPECT A GOOD DEAL OF MELTING TO OCCUR DURING THE             
DAYTIME HOURS...STILL CONCERNED THE THUMB REGION WILL SEE WARNING               
CRITERIA IN THIS LONG EVENT. THE THUMB REGION LOOKS TO BEAR THE                 
BRUNT OF THE STORM...ESPECIALLY WHEN YOU FACTOR IN THE STRONG                   
NORTHERLY WINDS...WHICH SHOULD GUST TO BLIZZARD CRITERIA (FREQUENT              
GUSTS TO 35 MPH). 00Z NAM INDICATING 50 KNOTS AT 925 MB LATE                    
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. DON'T SEE 3 CONSECUTIVE HOURS OF 1/4              
MILE VISIBILITY HOWEVER. SINCE THE BULK OF THE SNOWFALL WILL NOT                
OCCUR UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY (PERIOD 4/5)...HELD OFF ON A                  
WATCH. WILL WORD THE POTENTIAL OF 5-10 INCHES IN THE HWO FOR THE                
THUMB REGION...WITH 4-7 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG THE M-59 AND I-69                 
CORRIDORS...WITH THE DETROIT METRO AREA SEEING POSSIBLY 1 TO 4                  
INCHES. KEEP IN MIND...THOSE ACCUMULATIONS ARE FOR THE COLDER/GRASSY            
SURFACES.                                                                       
STORM SYSTEM TO BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING               
PRECIPITATION TO WIND DOWN. 00Z NAM INDICATING 1000 TO 850 MB                   
THICKNESSES ABOVE 1300 M...SO WENT WITH RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY.                   
DIDN'T HAVE A WHOLE LOT OF TIME TO LOOK AT THE FORECAST BEYOND                  
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...BASED OFF THE 00Z GFS AND SURROUNDING                         
OFFICES...ADDED CHANCE POPS TO TUESDAY.                                         
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.MI...NONE.                                                                     
.LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...TONIGHT...OUTER BAY AND LAKE               
HURON.                                                                          
.LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                          
.MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BT/SF                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1004 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2005                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
QUITE BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG THE              
MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY AND IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...BEHIND                  
STRONG COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THRU THE FA OVERNIGHT. WITH                       
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EXPECTED            
TO POUR INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING                
PRESSURE RISES SHUD BE ENOUGH TO PUSH ALREADY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS            
OVER THE APPROPRIATE WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLD. 12Z KABR SOUNDING                 
SHOWING 45 KTS JUST ABOVE THE SFC...WITH ONLY A LITTLE MIXING NEEDED            
TO BRING THAT TO THE SFC. ISSUED WIND ADVISORY TO ADDRESS THIS                  
CONCERN.                                                                        
CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC ALSO SHOWING DECENT AREA OF SHOWERS JUST NORTH             
OF THE FA...FROM BRAINERD TO DULUTH. ECHOES SEEM TO BE DECREASING AS            
THEY MOVE SOUTHWARD...BUT SMALL POPS SEEM REASONABLE FOR THIS                   
AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY.           
OTHERWISE...GOING FCST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK THIS MORNING...ONLY                 
MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED TO CURRENT GRIDS. MAIN CHANGES INVOLVED                     
DECREASING MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGS FROM ALEXANDRIA TO MORA PER CURRENT             
SFC OB TRENDS AND DENSE LOW CLOUD COVER EVIDENT ON VISIBLE IMAGERY.             
ALSO INCREASED WIND SPEEDS /ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST AND SOUTH/ PER               
CURRENT TRENDS...WORKSTATION NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS...AND 12Z RUC DATA              
TO REFLECT EXPECTED WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.                                     
UPDATED PRODUCTS TO BE SENT SHORTLY.                                            
KAT                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 320 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2005)                          
THE SCREAMING MESSAGE TODAY IS THE INCREASING WINDS AND COOLER                  
TEMPERATURES. THE NAM MODEL WINDS AND BUFKIT DATA SUGGEST BORDERLINE            
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN                    
PORTIONS OF OUR MINNESOTA COUNTY WARNING AREA. EXPECT COLD AIR                  
STRATO CUMULUS TO LIMIT LOW LEVEL MIXING. THE NAM MODEL SUGGESTS THE            
BEST SURFACE PRESSURE RISES WILL BYPASS OUR FORECAST AREA TO THE                
WEST. WITH THESE FORECAST PARAMETERS CONSIDERED...THINK THE WINDS               
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW OUR 30 MPH ADVISORY CRITERIA. COLD AIR              
STRATO CUMULUS NOW ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AND IS LAGGING BEHIND              
THE ONSET LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. SUSPECT THAT DIURNAL HEATING BY             
MID MORNING WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPING STRATO CUMULUS AS 500 MB                    
TEMPERATURES AROUND MINUS 28 MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA. COLD AND DRY               
NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY                   
EVENING. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST TO DROP AND PRECIPITABLE               
WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH. A WEAK              
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.              
THIS IS PRECEDED BY SOME THICKNESS DIFFLUENCE AND WARM ADVECTION BUT            
THE AIR MASS STILL LOOKS TOO DRY AND THE LIFT TOO WEAK FOR A CHANCE             
OF PRECIPITATION.                                                               
&&                                                                              
LONGER TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT                                       
WEAK FRONT MOVES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA MONDAY AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE            
OHIO VALLEY RETROGRESS OVER QUEBEC CANADA BY 12Z/TUESDAY MRNG. SHRA             
PSBL WITH PASSAGE OF THE WEAK FRONT...OTHERWISE A DRY PERIOD. DRY               
NORTHWESTERLY AIRFLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE                    
PERIOD.  GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOWING THE UPPER FLOW ALOFT BECOMING               
MORE ZONAL BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.                                         
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.MN...NONE                                                                      
.WI...NONE                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE                                        
1004 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2005                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FCST UPDATED TO INCLUDE LIGHTER RUC WINDS AND MENTION OF FROST. NO              
OTHER CHANGES.                                                                  
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
    WINDS ARE DIMINISHING ALREADY, SO A WIND ADVISORY WILL NOT BE               
NEEDED TONIGHT.                                                                 
    OTHERWISE, WITH UPPER FLOW PRETTY MUCH STRAIGHT FROM THE YUKON              
AND NORTHWEST TERRITORIES FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS, TEMPERATURES WILL              
BE COLD TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO                
LOWER 30S. SINCE THIS IS STILL BEFORE THE AVERAGE LAST KILLING                  
FROST, AN ADVISORY IS UNNECESSARY. STILL WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF            
FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.                         
    THE NORTH UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO IOWA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA SUNDAY             
AND MONDAY AS AN UPPER EAST-WEST TROUGH FORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL                
ROCKIES. THEN, AS IT DEAMPLIFIES AND MOVES SOUTHWARD, THE FLOW FROM             
THE ARCTIC RESUMES.  ANYWAY, WITH A FAIRLY STRONG BLAST FROM THE                
ARCTIC, INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE CURRENT FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES              
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY BE TOO WARM. IN FACT, THE PATTERN                 
SEEMS TO FAVOR LOWS IN THE 20S. HOWEVER, CLOUDINESS AND THE                     
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WOULD DAMP THE NIGHTTIME DROP. ACTUALLY             
THE GFSLR MOS SEEMS REASONABLE, BUT I AM NOT READY TO JUMP ON IT                
YET. I WILL NUDGE THE CURRENT FORECAST LOWS IN THAT DIRECTION.                  
    THE EAST-WEST ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH STEERS A 700MB LOW            
THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WOULD FAVOR PRECIPITATION IN EXTREME               
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. AS THE TROUGH ROTATES               
THROUGH THE STATE...PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST.                   
ANOTHER TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH BRINGS A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION                
AGAIN FRIDAY.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
    HAND ANALYSIS OF THE 18Z MSL DATA SHOWED THE DOMINANT FEATURE TO            
BE HIGH PRESSURE ON THE HIGH PLAINS. THE STORM SYSTEM HAD MOVED TO              
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND THE FRONT HAD MOVED INTO NORTH               
TEXAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, 6.7U IMAGERY SHOWED A RIDGE BUILDING                
OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.                                        
&&                                                                              
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SPRINGER/JMC                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   ne                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
945 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...AT 01Z THE LATEST IR/WV LOOP DEPICTS            
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST.  THE LATEST RUC SHOWS A                
H500 SHORTWAVE COUPLING WITH A SFC WARM FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD                  
THROUGH PA AND OH. THIS WILL PRODUCE A DECENT SWATHE OF RAINFALL DUE            
TO STRONG QG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION DUE TO THE STRONG H850 WARM                 
ADVECTION/300K ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE LATEST KENX RADAR PICTURE SHOWS             
RAINFALL MOVING INTO THE CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY/NRN CATSKILLS/SRN                  
ADIRONDACKS.  AN EARLIER BATCH OF VERY LIGHT -RA MOVED E/SE OF THE              
GREATER CAPITAL REGION WITH LITTLE OR MEASURABLE RAINFALL. THE AIR              
WAS SATURATED A BIT MORE...BUT THE STILL THE LOWLEVEL REMAINS QUITE             
DRY BASED ON THE 00Z KALY RAOB. THE UPSTREAM BATCH OF RAINFALL WILL             
MOISTEN THE AIR MASS QUICKLY AND HAVE REDONE THE TRENDS IN THE GRIDS            
PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT FOR THE PCPN TIMING. I WILL BE RE-ISSUING THE                 
GRIDDED PRODUCTS...BUT NOT THE ZONES...SINCE THEY READ QUITE WELL.              
NOW...THE FFAALY HAS BEEN RE-ISSUED FOR NOON SATURDAY TO NOON SUNDAY. THE       
18Z MODEL RUNS AND NCEP/HPC QPF GUIDANCE IS ABOUT A HALF AN INCH TO             
AN INCH LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FCST. WE WILL KEEP THE WATCH UP FOR             
NOW AND LET ALL THE 00Z GUIDANCE BE CAREFULLY ANALYZED BY MIDNIGHT              
CREW BEFORE CANCELLING ANY PORTIONS OUT. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE A            
ONE TO TWO INCH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT WITH UPSLOPE LOCATIONS                
NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN RECEIVING UP TO THREE INCHES. THIS MAY CAUSE            
ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING...OR MORE OF THE LOCALIZED URBAN AND SMALL              
STREAM NUISANCE FLOODING...IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS TOMORROW.                     
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 353 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...                                    
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL ARRIVE OVER WESTERN NEW YORK SUNDAY MORNING               
AND THEN ROTATE BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. IT WILL DOMINATE WEATHER OVER            
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALL                
INGREDIENTS IN PLACE FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH WARM            
SECTOR OVER REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING ADDED CHANCE OF                
THUNDERSTORMS TO MIX. THEN AS COLD AIR ARRIVES THERE WILL BE THE                
POSSIBILITY OF SNOW AT SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT.              
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                           
UPPER TROUGH WILL MAKE ANOTHER RUN AT US AT MID WEEK. SO CHANCE OF              
MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE MAY GET A               
BRIEF RESPITE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BUT WITH HIGH SPEED PATTERN             
TIMING UNCERTAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH                 
FRIDAY.                                                                         
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FROM NORTHWEST TO                    
SOUTHEAST TO MVFR THIS EVENING...WITH CLOUD BASES AROUND 3500 FT                
MSL. THEY WILL DETERIORATE FURTHER LATER THIS EVENING AS CLOUD BASES            
LOWER TO 1500 TO 2500 FT MSL AND VISIBILITIES DROP TO AROUND 3 MILES            
OVERNIGHT. OBSCURATION OF HIGHER TERRAIN IS LIKELY. FOR SATURDAY                
EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WITH CLOUD BASES 1000 TO 2500 FEET             
MSL AND VISIBLITY AT OR BELOW 3 MILES...EXCEPT FOR THE MID HUDSON               
AND HOUSATONIC REGIONS WHERE CONDITIONS MAY BE SLIGHTLY BETTER.                 
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AND ON SATURDAY THEY ARE EXPECTED TO               
GUST TO 20 KNOTS.                                                               
FIRE WEATHER...FIRE DANGER CONTINUES HIGH SOUTH OF ALBANY WHERE                 
LITTLE OR NO RAIN FELL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE RAIN FORECAST TO COME               
TO THE REGION SATURDAY WILL ALLEVIATE THIS PROBLEM AS THE GROUND                
GETS A GOOD SOAKING WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN.                             
HYDROLOGY...QPF AMOUNTS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM              
1.5 TO 3 INCHES...WITH SOME TERRAIN UPLIFT LIKELY OVER THE EASTERN              
CATSKILLS...THE BERKSHIRES...AND THE GREEN MTNS OF VERMONT.                     
SIGNIFICANT WITHIN-BANKS RISES ARE EXPECTED ON ALL RIVERS. NERFC                
MODEL PUTS HOUSATONIC ABOVE FLOOD AT GAYLORDSVILLE AND NEAR                     
FLOOD AT STEVENSON...AND THE MOHAWK COMES TO JUST UNDER FLOOD AT                
UTICA. SPC HAS US IN GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND              
SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM CONVECTION IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY.                  
&&                                                                              
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...FLOOD WATCH NOON EDT SATURDAY TO NOON EDT SUNDAY.                          
MA...FLOOD WATCH NOON EDT SATURDAY TO NOON EDT SUNDAY.                          
NY...FLOOD WATCH NOON EDT SATURDAY TO NOON EDT SUNDAY.                          
VT...FLOOD WATCH NOON EDT SATURDAY TO NOON EDT SUNDAY.                          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...WASULA                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND                              
830 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2005                                                      
FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS TEMPERATURES.                                       
RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DECOUPLING SHOULD COMMENCE OVER THE                
NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WITH DIMINISHED MIXING...SKC AND DEWPOINTS IN THE             
TEENS SHOULD SEE MORE RAPID COOLING. SURFACE RIDGE CENTER IS                    
EXPECTED TO STAY WEST OF VALLEY ALLOWING FOR SLIGHT WIND. STILL                 
LOOKS LIKE A COOL NIGHT AND WITH COOL BIAS TO GFK ASOS WILL MAINTAIN            
NEAR RECORD LOWS. WILL LOOK OVER ZONES HOWEVER ANY CHANGES WILL BE              
VERY MINOR.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
VOELKER                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   nd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
925 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TO THE EAST OF                     
CINCINNATI.  KILN SHOWING SEVERE CONVECTION JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE               
LOW.  KILN SHOWS WARM FRONT FROM SURFACE LOW INTO ROSS COUNTY.                  
HAVE THROWN OUT A COUPLE OF UPDATES TO CLEAR THE TRI-                           
STATE...WHITEWATER AND MIAMI VALLEYS AND PARTS OF CENTRAL OHIO                  
(INCLUDING COLUMBUS).                                                           
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE WATCH AREA FOR WARNINGS AND THEN                   
CLEAR AS SOON AS BEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY HAVE DIMINISHED.  THIS               
SHOULD BE BEFORE 11 PM.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 730 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2005)                                             
AVIATION (00Z-24Z)...                                                           
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE HEADED TOWARD TAF SITES, ESPECIALLY CVG LUK            
AND ILN. EXPECT TSRA THROUGH THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF FORECAST.                   
ATMOSPHERE WILL STABILIZE LATE TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS TO FOLLOW, ALONG            
WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS. CEILINGS WILL DROP TO IFR BEHIND               
THE COLD FRONT, WITH MODELS SHOWING COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE                  
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.                                          
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...                                    
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEPENING LOW OVER INDIANA WITH WARM FRONT               
FROM JUST NORTH OF DAYTON TO NORTH OF PORTSMOUTH.  ASSOCIATED COLD              
FRONT IS NEAR PADUCAH, KY.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CLEAR SLOT                
OVER SRN IL/IN.  CLOUDS ARE EVEN MIXING OUT IN THE SRN HALF FOR                 
FA.  BEST ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITH THE UPPER LOW IN WRN                 
IL.  HOWEVER, THERE ARE SEVERAL BANDS ON SATELLITE THAT                         
LOOK LIKE THEY COULD BE THE FOCUS OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION.                     
CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY.  FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO                 
THIS EVENING...WILL LIKELY SEE SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS THE                     
SOUTHER PART OF THE FA.  LATEST RUC SHOWING AROUND 1000 TO 1500                 
J/KG ACROSS SRN FA FOR THIS EVENING.  THE NAM IS A BIT MORE                     
GENEROUS.  0-4KM SHEAR ON THE RUC SHOWS GENERALLY 15 M/S.  BEST                 
LIFT WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 00 AND 03Z ACROSS OUR SOUTH.  BEST SEVERE               
THREAT WILL BE WIND AND HAIL.  WET BULB ZERO WILL BE AROUND 8 TO 9 KFT          
AND FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 10 KFT.  MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ABOUT 40              
KTS. THE 40 KTS ALONG WITH STRONG UPDRAFTS AND POTENTIAL FOR                    
ROTATION WILL CREATE SOME DAMAGING WIND STORMS.                                 
CONDITIONS WILL COOL OFF CONSIDERABLY AS DEEP UPPER LOW DIGS INTO               
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY FOR THE WEEKEND.  THIS WILL BRING PLENTY OF               
PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION.  TEMPS WILL BE STEADY ON SATURDAY                
WITH RAIN.  TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL TO BELOW FREEZING.  SATURDAY                 
NIGHT WITH 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES SHOWING SNOW ACROSS THE WHOLE                
FA.  RIGHT NOW SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ON SUNDAY WITH MORE SNOW              
THAN RAIN IN THE NE AND MORE RAIN THAN SNOW IN THE SE.  FOR THE                 
MOMENT WILL GO WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN THE                
SOUTHEAST TO AROUND 2 INCHES IN THE NORTHEAST.                                  
WILL HOLD OF ON ISSUING A FREEZE WATCH FOR NOW AND LET NEXT SHIFT               
HANDEL AS FOCUS AT THE MOMENT IS MORE ON THE SHORT TERM.  MAV                   
TEMPS LOOK GOOD WILL GO A BIT COOLER ON SUNDAY.                                 
TIPTON                                                                          
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                            
TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EAST.  SEVERAL SHORT WAVES AND               
FRONTS MOVE ACROSS CWA WITH EACH PROVIDING CHC OF PRECIP. TIMING AND            
COVERAGE OF PRECIP QUESTION MARK. TEMPS REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE BUT             
NOT AS COLD AS WEEKEND. WENT CLOSE TO GUID.                                     
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
730 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2005                                                      
.AVIATION (00Z-24Z)...                                                          
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE HEADED TOWARD TAF SITES, ESPECIALLY CVG LUK            
AND ILN. EXPECT TSRA THROUGH THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF FORECAST.                   
ATMOSPHERE WILL STABILIZE LATE TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS TO FOLLOW, ALONG            
WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS. CEILINGS WILL DROP TO IFR BEHIND               
THE COLD FRONT, WITH MODELS SHOWING COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE                  
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.                                          
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...                                   
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEPENING LOW OVER INDIANA WITH WARM FRONT               
FROM JUST NORTH OF DAYTON TO NORTH OF PORTSMOUTH.  ASSOCIATED COLD              
FRONT IS NEAR PADUCAH, KY.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CLEAR SLOT                
OVER SRN IL/IN.  CLOUDS ARE EVEN MIXING OUT IN THE SRN HALF FOR                 
FA.  BEST ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITH THE UPPER LOW IN WRN                 
IL.  HOWEVER, THERE ARE SEVERAL BANDS ON SATELLITE THAT                         
LOOK LIKE THEY COULD BE THE FOCUS OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION.                     
CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY.  FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO                 
THIS EVENING...WILL LIKELY SEE SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS THE                     
SOUTHER PART OF THE FA.  LATEST RUC SHOWING AROUND 1000 TO 1500                 
J/KG ACROSS SRN FA FOR THIS EVENING.  THE NAM IS A BIT MORE                     
GENEROUS.  0-4KM SHEAR ON THE RUC SHOWS GENERALLY 15 M/S.  BEST                 
LIFT WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 00 AND 03Z ACROSS OUR SOUTH.  BEST SEVERE               
THREAT WILL BE WIND AND HAIL.  WET BULB ZERO WILL BE AROUND 8 TO 9 KFT          
AND FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 10 KFT.  MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ABOUT 40              
KTS. THE 40 KTS ALONG WITH STRONG UPDRAFTS AND POTENTIAL FOR                    
ROTATION WILL CREATE SOME DAMAGING WIND STORMS.                                 
CONDITIONS WILL COOL OFF CONSIDERABLY AS DEEP UPPER LOW DIGS INTO               
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY FOR THE WEEKEND.  THIS WILL BRING PLENTY OF               
PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION.  TEMPS WILL BE STEADY ON SATURDAY                
WITH RAIN.  TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL TO BELOW FREEZING.  SATURDAY                 
NIGHT WITH 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES SHOWING SNOW ACROSS THE WHOLE                
FA.  RIGHT NOW SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ON SUNDAY WITH MORE SNOW              
THAN RAIN IN THE NE AND MORE RAIN THAN SNOW IN THE SE.  FOR THE                 
MOMENT WILL GO WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN THE                
SOUTHEAST TO AROUND 2 INCHES IN THE NORTHEAST.                                  
WILL HOLD OF ON ISSUING A FREEZE WATCH FOR NOW AND LET NEXT SHIFT               
HANDEL AS FOCUS AT THE MOMENT IS MORE ON THE SHORT TERM.  MAV                   
TEMPS LOOK GOOD WILL GO A BIT COOLER ON SUNDAY.                                 
TIPTON                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                           
TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EAST.  SEVERAL SHORT WAVES AND               
FRONTS MOVE ACROSS CWA WITH EACH PROVIDING CHC OF PRECIP. TIMING AND            
COVERAGE OF PRECIP QUESTION MARK. TEMPS REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE BUT             
NOT AS COLD AS WEEKEND. WENT CLOSE TO GUID.                                     
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
310 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...                                   
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEPENING LOW OVER INDIANA WITH WARM FRONT               
FROM JUST NORTH OF DAYTON TO NORTH OF PORTSMOUTH.  ASSOCIATED COLD              
FRONT IS NEAR PADUCAH, KY.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CLEAR SLOT                
OVER SRN IL/IN.  CLOUDS ARE EVEN MIXING OUT IN THE SRN HALF FOR                 
FA.  BEST ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITH THE UPPER LOW IN WRN                 
IL.  HOWEVER, THERE ARE SEVERAL BANDS ON SATELLITE THAT                         
LOOK LIKE THEY COULD BE THE FOCUS OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION.                     
CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY.  FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO                 
THIS EVENING...WILL LIKELY SEE SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS THE                     
SOUTHER PART OF THE FA.  LATEST RUC SHOWING AROUND 1000 TO 1500                 
J/KG ACROSS SRN FA FOR THIS EVENING.  THE NAM IS A BIT MORE                     
GENEROUS.  0-4KM SHEAR ON THE RUC SHOWS GENERALLY 15 M/S.  BEST                 
LIFT WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 00 AND 03Z ACROSS OUR SOUTH.  BEST SEVERE               
THREAT WILL BE WIND AND HAIL.  WET BULB ZERO WILL BE AROUND 8 TO 9 KFT          
AND FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 10 KFT.  MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ABOUT 40              
KTS. THE 40 KTS ALONG WITH STRONG UPDRAFTS AND POTENTIAL FOR                    
ROTATION WILL CREATE SOME DAMAGING WIND STORMS.                                 
CONDITIONS WILL COOL OFF CONSIDERABLY AS DEEP UPPER LOW DIGS INTO               
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY FOR THE WEEKEND.  THIS WILL BRING PLENTY OF               
PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION.  TEMPS WILL BE STEADY ON SATURDAY                
WITH RAIN.  TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL TO BELOW FREEZING.  SATURDAY                 
NIGHT WITH 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES SHOWING SNOW ACROSS THE WHOLE                
FA.  RIGHT NOW SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ON SUNDAY WITH MORE SNOW              
THAN RAIN IN THE NE AND MORE RAIN THAN SNOW IN THE SE.  FOR THE                 
MOMENT WILL GO WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN THE                
SOUTHEAST TO AROUND 2 INCHES IN THE NORTHEAST.                                  
WILL HOLD OF ON ISSUING A FREEZE WATCH FOR NOW AND LET NEXT SHIFT               
HANDEL AS FOCUS AT THE MOMENT IS MORE ON THE SHORT TERM.  MAV                   
TEMPS LOOK GOOD WILL GO A BIT COOLER ON SUNDAY.                                 
TIPTON                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                           
TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EAST.  SEVERAL SHORT WAVES AND               
FRONTS MOVE ACROSS CWA WITH EACH PROVIDING CHC OF PRECIP. TIMING AND            
COVERAGE OF PRECIP QUESTION MARK. TEMPS REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE BUT             
NOT AS COLD AS WEEKEND. WENT CLOSE TO GUID.                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...                                                          
LATEST SFC MAP SHWS DEEP LOW PRES OVER CENTRAL IL WITH WARM FRONT               
EXTENDING FROM NEAR IND TO CVG. WARM FRONT TO SHIFT NWD AS SFC                  
WAVE RIDES THE FRONT TO A POSTION OVER SW OH BY 00Z. IN WARM SECTOR             
TD/S TO INCREASE INTO THE LOWER 60S AND MID LVL DRY INTRUSION WL                
YEILD MOD INSTBYT WITH SB CAPES BTWN 2000-2500 J/KG. EXPECT LOW                 
CIGS N OF WARMFRONT TO IMPROVE EARLY THIS AFTNA AND THEN TSTMS                  
TO DEVELOP. HAVE MENTIONED WIND STG GUSTS IN SRN TAF SITES WITH                 
DELTA THETA E ABOVE 20 DEGS. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES TO DEVELOP OVER               
THE GREAT LAKES. IN THE WAKE OF SFC LOW PRES EXPECT A LOWERING TREND            
TO CIGS AND CONTD CHC OF SHOWERS THRU TAF PERIOD IN LO LEVEL CAA                
PATTERN. HAVE TRANISTIONED CIGS INTO MVFR CAT THIS EVE AND THEN IFR             
LATE. GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP WITH NWRLY WINDS IN 20 TO 30 RANGE LATE              
TNGT INTO SAT.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1031 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2005                                                     
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                
LINE OF STORMS OVER TN/GA MOVING INTO CWFA ATTM. STORMS OVER NC                 
WEAKENING AS THEY HIT THE MTNS. STORMS OVER GA WEAKENING AS WELL BUT            
REMAINING STRONG. LAPS DATA SHOW INSTABILITY HOLDING STEADY OR EVEN             
INCREASING AHEAD OF THESE STORMS. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH CLOSELY AS             
SEVERE TSRA COULD OCCUR AT ANY TIME AS THE LINE MOVES THRU. HAVE                
TRENDED POPS IN THE GRIDS WITH A CATEGORICAL AREA STARTING IN THE               
WEST AND MOVING THRU THE AREA BY MORNING. UPDATED HOURLY TEMPS/WINDS            
BUT LEFT LOWS AND WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS IS.                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 709 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                 
UPDATING ZONES TO REMOVE ALL COUNTIES FROM WATCH NUMBER 189. ALSO               
LOWERING POP NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS TO ISOLATED BEFORE NEXT ROUND OF              
CONVECTION MOVES IN ABOUT 9 PM. MDLS INDICATE SVR STILL POSSIBLE                
WITH THE NEXT ROUND...IN FACT WATCH BOX BORDERING OUR WRN CWFA                  
ATTM. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT AFTER                
LOSS OF HEATING. SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD PRECIP COVERAGE BEFORE 06Z                
EVEN IF SEVERE THREAT LESSENS. NO CHANGES TO TEMPS...WINDS OR SKY.              
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 321 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...                                          
MCS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWFA ATTM. SFC FLOW AHEAD             
OF THE SYSTEM IS STRENGTHENING AND BAKCING WITH DWTPS RAPIDLY                   
RECOVERING INTO THE LOWER 60S. SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO CHUG EAST              
PRODUCING PLENTY OF DAMAING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...AND THERE MAY                
EVEN BE A TORNADO OR TWO ASSOCIATED WITH A MESO LOW THAT HAS FROMED             
OVER THE WESTERN UPSTATE. ONCE THIS SYSTEM CLEARS THE CWFA...THE                
QUESTION BECOMES WHAT TO DO ABOUT THE AS YET NON-EXISTANT SECOND MCS            
WE ARE EXPECTEING.                                                              
NAM AND RUC BOTH SHOW CONSIDERABLE DESTABLIZATION DURING THE EARLY              
EVENING HOURS ACROSS ERN TN/KY SOUTH INTO AL/GA AHEAD OF THE SFC                
FRONT UNDER THE STRONG H5 LOW CURRENTLY OVER SE MO. IF THE SFC                  
CONVERGENCE STRENGHTENS AS THE MODELS ADVERTISE...THEN WE SHOULD SEE            
ANOTHER SYSTEM AS FORMIDDABLE AS THE CURRENT ONE. IN FACT...EHI/S               
ARE HIGHER WITH TONIGHTS EXPECTED SYSTEM AS FLOW BACKS STRONGLY                 
AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING SFC LOW THAT PASSES TO OUR N. FOR NOW WL KEEP            
LIKLEY POPS IN THE ZONES THROUGH THE NIGHT AS TIMING IS NOT A SURE              
BET...BUT THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF MORE STORMS ALONG THE FRONT               
DOES LOOK VERY PROBABLE.                                                        
AS THE STRONG UPPER LOW CONSOLIDATES OVER OHIO SAT...NW FLOW AND                
MUCH COLDER AIR INVADE. H8 TEMPS WL FALL TO AROUND -8 DEG C OVER                
MUCH OF THE MTNS SAT NGHT. TEMPS WL FALL THROUGH THE DAY ON SAT OVER            
THE HIGH TERRAIN...AND SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW WL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE            
IN THE DAY. SAT NGHT 1000-500 MB LAYER RH VALUES INCREASE TO OVER               
70% MOST OF THE NGHT...AND NW FLOW INCREASES TO AROUND 35 KTS WITH              
VERY LOW HEIGHTS. ALL OF THIS POINTS TO A GOOD SHOT OF NW FLOW SNOW.            
WL UP TOTALS A LITTLE...ESPECIALLY FROM MADISON CO N. WARM GROUND               
SHOULD KEEP ACCUMS DOWN IN THE VALLEYS...BUT FALLING TEMPS SHOULD               
RESULT IN SLUSH FREEZING INTO ICE WHICH WL MAKE FOR BAD TRAVEL. AT              
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL. DO NOT PLAN TO              
ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH ATTM.                                                
WE WL...HOWEVER...ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR SAT NGHT FOR ALL OF THE              
NC MTNS. OUTSIDE THE MTNS TEMPS SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING...AND                
THERE SHOULD BE ENUF MIXING TO PRECULDE MUCH FROST. HOWEVER...IT WL             
NOT TAKE MUCH COOLER TEMPS FOR THE FOOTHILLS TO SEE A FREEZE.                   
SUN NGHT WL HAVE BETTER FROST AND POSSIBLE FREEZE POTENTIAL OUTSIDE             
THE MTNS WITH ANOTHER FREEZE EXPECTED IN THE MTNS.                              
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                      
EXTENDED PERIOD OF THIS PACKAGE BEGINS WITH CONTINUED SUPPORT                   
FOR NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS FOR HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. LATEST                
GFS AND THE UKMET BRING ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY...AND INCREASED                   
FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN                       
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS BORDERING TENNESSEE. THE AIRMASS IS                    
EXPECTED TO STILL BE UNUSUALLY COLD. CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY                     
CONTINUE IN SOME FASHION OVER THE TENNESSEE BORDER MONDAY...                    
BUT PARTLY CLOUDY AND A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND EXPECTED TO ENSUE              
ON MONDAY.                                                                      
MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES DIFFER QUITE A BIT WITH REGARD TO THE                    
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM...EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST                  
AREA DURING THE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NITE PERIOD. GFS ADVERTISES ENOUGH              
MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH SHORTWAVE ACTION TO WARRANT CONVECTIVE                   
CHANCES...ALTHOUGH POPS WERE LOWERED TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE NORTH             
CAROLINA PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT                 
PERIOD. MODELS PROGGING A QUITE MOIST ALBEIT WEAKLY-FORCED                      
ATMOSPHERE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY; WE LEFT THESE                      
PERIODS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS A STRONG                  
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE NEARING THE WESTERN CWFA                 
AS NEXT THURSDAY NITE ENDS.                                                     
AVIATION...                                                                     
PERIODS OF IFR FOG WILL CONTINUE AT KAVL UNTIL SUNRISE.                         
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL DEEPEN AND TRACK EAST ALONG A                 
STALLED FRONT. AS THE DEEPENING LOW APPROACHES...THE PRESSURE                   
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. BY MID                       
MORNING...ALL TERMINALS SHOULD SEE A DECENT SW WIND (SOUTH AT                   
KAVL). WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AS THE MIXING HEIGHT INCREASES IN THE            
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH DWPTS IN THE             
MID 50S OR BETTER. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...CAPES ARE EXPECTED TO               
BUILD TO 900-1500 J/KG WITH VERY LITTLE CIN. ENOUGH FORCING TO                  
TRIGGER DEEP CONVECTION MAY ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON AS ONE IN A SERIES            
OF VORTS PASS OVER THE REGION. WILL HANDLE WITH A LATE                          
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TEMPO FOR TSRA AT ALL TERMINALS. ANOTHER                
WAVE OF TS IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AFTER 0Z SAT.              
AT THIS POINT...WILL LIMIT MENTION OF TS AFTER 0Z SAT TO KAND.                  
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...FREEZE WATCH FOR NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065 FROM 6 PM                  
     SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY.                                                   
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...RWH                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
709 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                
UPDATING ZONES TO REMOVE ALL COUNTIES FROM WATCH NUMBER 189. ALSO               
LOWERING POP NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS TO ISOLATED BEFORE NEXT ROUND OF              
CONVECTION MOVES IN ABOUT 9 PM. MDLS INDICATE SVR STILL POSSIBLE                
WITH THE NEXT ROUND...IN FACT WATCH BOX BORDERING OUR WRN CWFA                  
ATTM. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT AFTER                
LOSS OF HEATING. SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD PRECIP COVERAGE BEFORE 06Z                
EVEN IF SEVERE THREAT LESSENS. NO CHANGES TO TEMPS...WINDS OR SKY.              
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 321 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...                                          
MCS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWFA ATTM. SFC FLOW AHEAD             
OF THE SYSTEM IS STRENGTHENING AND BAKCING WITH DWTPS RAPIDLY                   
RECOVERING INTO THE LOWER 60S. SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO CHUG EAST              
PRODUCING PLENTY OF DAMAING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...AND THERE MAY                
EVEN BE A TORNADO OR TWO ASSOCIATED WITH A MESO LOW THAT HAS FROMED             
OVER THE WESTERN UPSTATE. ONCE THIS SYSTEM CLEARS THE CWFA...THE                
QUESTION BECOMES WHAT TO DO ABOUT THE AS YET NON-EXISTANT SECOND MCS            
WE ARE EXPECTEING.                                                              
NAM AND RUC BOTH SHOW CONSIDERABLE DESTABLIZATION DURING THE EARLY              
EVENING HOURS ACROSS ERN TN/KY SOUTH INTO AL/GA AHEAD OF THE SFC                
FRONT UNDER THE STRONG H5 LOW CURRENTLY OVER SE MO. IF THE SFC                  
CONVERGENCE STRENGHTENS AS THE MODELS ADVERTISE...THEN WE SHOULD SEE            
ANOTHER SYSTEM AS FORMIDDABLE AS THE CURRENT ONE. IN FACT...EHI/S               
ARE HIGHER WITH TONIGHTS EXPECTED SYSTEM AS FLOW BACKS STRONGLY                 
AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING SFC LOW THAT PASSES TO OUR N. FOR NOW WL KEEP            
LIKLEY POPS IN THE ZONES THROUGH THE NIGHT AS TIMING IS NOT A SURE              
BET...BUT THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF MORE STORMS ALONG THE FRONT               
DOES LOOK VERY PROBABLE.                                                        
AS THE STRONG UPPER LOW CONSOLIDATES OVER OHIO SAT...NW FLOW AND                
MUCH COLDER AIR INVADE. H8 TEMPS WL FALL TO AROUND -8 DEG C OVER                
MUCH OF THE MTNS SAT NGHT. TEMPS WL FALL THROUGH THE DAY ON SAT OVER            
THE HIGH TERRAIN...AND SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW WL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE            
IN THE DAY. SAT NGHT 1000-500 MB LAYER RH VALUES INCREASE TO OVER               
70% MOST OF THE NGHT...AND NW FLOW INCREASES TO AROUND 35 KTS WITH              
VERY LOW HEIGHTS. ALL OF THIS POINTS TO A GOOD SHOT OF NW FLOW SNOW.            
WL UP TOTALS A LITTLE...ESPECIALLY FROM MADISON CO N. WARM GROUND               
SHOULD KEEP ACCUMS DOWN IN THE VALLEYS...BUT FALLING TEMPS SHOULD               
RESULT IN SLUSH FREEZING INTO ICE WHICH WL MAKE FOR BAD TRAVEL. AT              
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL. DO NOT PLAN TO              
ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH ATTM.                                                
WE WL...HOWEVER...ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR SAT NGHT FOR ALL OF THE              
NC MTNS. OUTSIDE THE MTNS TEMPS SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING...AND                
THERE SHOULD BE ENUF MIXING TO PRECULDE MUCH FROST. HOWEVER...IT WL             
NOT TAKE MUCH COOLER TEMPS FOR THE FOOTHILLS TO SEE A FREEZE.                   
SUN NGHT WL HAVE BETTER FROST AND POSSIBLE FREEZE POTENTIAL OUTSIDE             
THE MTNS WITH ANOTHER FREEZE EXPECTED IN THE MTNS.                              
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                      
EXTENDED PERIOD OF THIS PACKAGE BEGINS WITH CONTINUED SUPPORT                   
FOR NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS FOR HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. LATEST                
GFS AND THE UKMET BRING ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY...AND INCREASED                   
FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN                       
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS BORDERING TENNESSEE. THE AIRMASS IS                    
EXPECTED TO STILL BE UNUSUALLY COLD. CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY                     
CONTINUE IN SOME FASHION OVER THE TENNESSEE BORDER MONDAY...                    
BUT PARTLY CLOUDY AND A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND EXPECTED TO ENSUE              
ON MONDAY.                                                                      
MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES DIFFER QUITE A BIT WITH REGARD TO THE                    
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM...EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST                  
AREA DURING THE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NITE PERIOD. GFS ADVERTISES ENOUGH              
MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH SHORTWAVE ACTION TO WARRANT CONVECTIVE                   
CHANCES...ALTHOUGH POPS WERE LOWERED TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE NORTH             
CAROLINA PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT                 
PERIOD. MODELS PROGGING A QUITE MOIST ALBEIT WEAKLY-FORCED                      
ATMOSPHERE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY; WE LEFT THESE                      
PERIODS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS A STRONG                  
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE NEARING THE WESTERN CWFA                 
AS NEXT THURSDAY NITE ENDS.                                                     
AVIATION...                                                                     
PERIODS OF IFR FOG WILL CONTINUE AT KAVL UNTIL SUNRISE.                         
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL DEEPEN AND TRACK EAST ALONG A                 
STALLED FRONT. AS THE DEEPENING LOW APPROACHES...THE PRESSURE                   
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. BY MID                       
MORNING...ALL TERMINALS SHOULD SEE A DECENT SW WIND (SOUTH AT                   
KAVL). WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AS THE MIXING HEIGHT INCREASES IN THE            
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH DWPTS IN THE             
MID 50S OR BETTER. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...CAPES ARE EXPECTED TO               
BUILD TO 900-1500 J/KG WITH VERY LITTLE CIN. ENOUGH FORCING TO                  
TRIGGER DEEP CONVECTION MAY ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON AS ONE IN A SERIES            
OF VORTS PASS OVER THE REGION. WILL HANDLE WITH A LATE                          
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TEMPO FOR TSRA AT ALL TERMINALS. ANOTHER                
WAVE OF TS IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AFTER 0Z SAT.              
AT THIS POINT...WILL LIMIT MENTION OF TS AFTER 0Z SAT TO KAND.                  
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...FREEZE WATCH FOR NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065 FROM 6 PM                  
     SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY.                                                   
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...RWH                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
321 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...                                         
MCS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWFA ATTM. SFC FLOW AHEAD             
OF THE SYSTEM IS STRENGTHENING AND BAKCING WITH DWTPS RAPIDLY                   
RECOVERING INTO THE LOWER 60S. SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO CHUG EAST              
PRODUCING PLENTY OF DAMAING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...AND THERE MAY                
EVEN BE A TORNADO OR TWO ASSOCIATED WITH A MESO LOW THAT HAS FROMED             
OVER THE WESTERN UPSTATE. ONCE THIS SYSTEM CLEARS THE CWFA...THE                
QUESTION BECOMES WHAT TO DO ABOUT THE AS YET NON-EXISTANT SECOND MCS            
WE ARE EXPECTEING.                                                              
NAM AND RUC BOTH SHOW CONSIDERABLE DESTABLIZATION DURING THE EARLY              
EVENING HOURS ACROSS ERN TN/KY SOUTH INTO AL/GA AHEAD OF THE SFC                
FRONT UNDER THE STRONG H5 LOW CURRENTLY OVER SE MO. IF THE SFC                  
CONVERGENCE STRENGHTENS AS THE MODELS ADVERTISE...THEN WE SHOULD SEE            
ANOTHER SYSTEM AS FORMIDDABLE AS THE CURRENT ONE. IN FACT...EHI/S               
ARE HIGHER WITH TONIGHTS EXPECTED SYSTEM AS FLOW BACKS STRONGLY                 
AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING SFC LOW THAT PASSES TO OUR N. FOR NOW WL KEEP            
LIKLEY POPS IN THE ZONES THROUGH THE NIGHT AS TIMING IS NOT A SURE              
BET...BUT THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF MORE STORMS ALONG THE FRONT               
DOES LOOK VERY PROBABLE.                                                        
AS THE STRONG UPPER LOW CONSOLIDATES OVER OHIO SAT...NW FLOW AND                
MUCH COLDER AIR INVADE. H8 TEMPS WL FALL TO AROUND -8 DEG C OVER                
MUCH OF THE MTNS SAT NGHT. TEMPS WL FALL THROUGH THE DAY ON SAT OVER            
THE HIGH TERRAIN...AND SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW WL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE            
IN THE DAY. SAT NGHT 1000-500 MB LAYER RH VALUES INCREASE TO OVER               
70% MOST OF THE NGHT...AND NW FLOW INCREASES TO AROUND 35 KTS WITH              
VERY LOW HEIGHTS. ALL OF THIS POINTS TO A GOOD SHOT OF NW FLOW SNOW.            
WL UP TOTALS A LITTLE...ESPECIALLY FROM MADISON CO N. WARM GROUND               
SHOULD KEEP ACCUMS DOWN IN THE VALLEYS...BUT FALLING TEMPS SHOULD               
RESULT IN SLUSH FREEZING INTO ICE WHICH WL MAKE FOR BAD TRAVEL. AT              
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL. DO NOT PLAN TO              
ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH ATTM.                                                
WE WL...HOWEVER...ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR SAT NGHT FOR ALL OF THE              
NC MTNS. OUTSIDE THE MTNS TEMPS SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING...AND                
THERE SHOULD BE ENUF MIXING TO PRECULDE MUCH FROST. HOWEVER...IT WL             
NOT TAKE MUCH COOLER TEMPS FOR THE FOOTHILLS TO SEE A FREEZE.                   
SUN NGHT WL HAVE BETTER FROST AND POSSIBLE FREEZE POTENTIAL OUTSIDE             
THE MTNS WITH ANOTHER FREEZE EXPECTED IN THE MTNS.                              
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                     
EXTENDED PERIOD OF THIS PACKAGE BEGINS WITH CONTINUED SUPPORT                   
FOR NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS FOR HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. LATEST                
GFS AND THE UKMET BRING ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY...AND INCREASED                   
FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN                       
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS BORDERING TENNESSEE. THE AIRMASS IS                    
EXPECTED TO STILL BE UNUSUALLY COLD. CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY                     
CONTINUE IN SOME FASHION OVER THE TENNESSEE BORDER MONDAY...                    
BUT PARTLY CLOUDY AND A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND EXPECTED TO ENSUE              
ON MONDAY.                                                                      
MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES DIFFER QUITE A BIT WITH REGARD TO THE                    
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM...EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST                  
AREA DURING THE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NITE PERIOD. GFS ADVERTISES ENOUGH              
MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH SHORTWAVE ACTION TO WARRANT CONVECTIVE                   
CHANCES...ALTHOUGH POPS WERE LOWERED TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE NORTH             
CAROLINA PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT                 
PERIOD. MODELS PROGGING A QUITE MOIST ALBEIT WEAKLY-FORCED                      
ATMOSPHERE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY; WE LEFT THESE                      
PERIODS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS A STRONG                  
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE NEARING THE WESTERN CWFA                 
AS NEXT THURSDAY NITE ENDS.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
PERIODS OF IFR FOG WILL CONTINUE AT KAVL UNTIL SUNRISE.                         
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL DEEPEN AND TRACK EAST ALONG A                 
STALLED FRONT. AS THE DEEPENING LOW APPROACHES...THE PRESSURE                   
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. BY MID                       
MORNING...ALL TERMINALS SHOULD SEE A DECENT SW WIND (SOUTH AT                   
KAVL). WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AS THE MIXING HEIGHT INCREASES IN THE            
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH DWPTS IN THE             
MID 50S OR BETTER. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...CAPES ARE EXPECTED TO               
BUILD TO 900-1500 J/KG WITH VERY LITTLE CIN. ENOUGH FORCING TO                  
TRIGGER DEEP CONVECTION MAY ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON AS ONE IN A SERIES            
OF VORTS PASS OVER THE REGION. WILL HANDLE WITH A LATE                          
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TEMPO FOR TSRA AT ALL TERMINALS. ANOTHER                
WAVE OF TS IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AFTER 0Z SAT.              
AT THIS POINT...WILL LIMIT MENTION OF TS AFTER 0Z SAT TO KAND.                  
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...FREEZE WATCH FOR NCZ033-048>054-058-059-062>065 FROM 6 PM                  
     SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY.                                                   
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...MCAVOY                                                             
LONG TERM...JDL                                                                 
AVIATION...JDL                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
944 AM EDT FRI APR 22 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
SATELLITE SHOWING FEW CLOUDS ACROSS AREA THIS MORNING. RUC/ETA                  
T-SECTIONS SUGGEST BKN CLOUDINESS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE THIS                 
AFTERNOON. WILL ADJUST SKY GRIDS. AIRMASS FORECAST TO BECOME                    
MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING VERTICAL WIND                
SHEAR. SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND              
THIS EVENING. NO OTHER CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.                             
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 308 AM EDT FRI APR 22 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...                                      
MODELS SHOW SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THEN A               
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN              
GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT              
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CONVECTIVE                
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SEVERE WEATHER                      
PARAMETERS SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH A THREAT OF SEVERE                 
WEATHER FROM STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND HAIL. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS                
ARE QUITE LOW LATE TONIGHT...AROUND 8500 FT. LIMITING FACTOR WILL               
BE INSTABILITY IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT... A              
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE WEST WINDS TO AROUND 20 MPH               
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH GUSTS TO AROOUND 30 MPH.                               
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                          
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.  GFS            
MOVES A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY             
AND WILL INCLUDE CHANCE POPS FOR THIS SCENARIO. HIGH PRESSURE THEN              
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US THURDAY AND FRIDAY. GUIDANCE TEMPS              
LOOK GOOD.                                                                      
AVIATION...                                                                     
VFR FOG POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK THIS MORNING AT NORMALLY FOG PRONE             
AGS...AND POSSIBLY OGB. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO                  
CONTINUE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOWER AND                      
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION FROM LATE                
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.                                       
&&                                                                              
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SC...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AWP                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
950 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2005                                                      
.UPDATE...STRONGER WINDS TODAY THAN PREVIOUSLY SUSPECTED. MORNING               
SOUNDING AND LATEST RUC/HI-RES NAM SOLUTIONS ALL POINTING TO WINDIER            
AND POSSIBLY COOLER TODAY. HOISTED WIND ADVISORY AND TWEAKED TEMPS              
DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES UNDER STRONG CAA AND STRATUS CLOUD DECK THAT              
IS EXPECTED TO HANG AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE               
DAY.  UPDATED GRIDS AND WORDS ARE OUT.      DORN                                
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT                                        
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WINDS TODAY AND TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT              
THE PERIOD. NO MAJOR DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE MODELS...AND GENERALLY            
STUCK WITH THE NAM. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE            
GREAT LAKES WILL DROP SOUTHWARD AND BECOME A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER              
AND JUST SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOME PVA               
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA                       
TODAY...BUT MOVES OUT TONIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE                 
ROCKIES AND BEGINS TO TREK TOWARD THE PLAINS. THE RIDGE REACHES THE             
PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN WEAKENS ON SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH TO THE             
EAST ELONGATES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CONNECTS UP WITH A TROUGH            
PUSHING ONTO THE WEST COAST.                                                    
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA EARLY THIS                  
MORNING WILL QUICKLY PUSH SOUTHWARD TODAY AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE                 
DROPS DOWN OUT OF CANADA. CURRENT SATELLITE INDICATING SOME LOW                 
CLOUDS PUSHING SOUTH OVER NORTH DAKOTA UNDER THE HIGH. KEPT SKY                 
COVER A BIT HIGHER IN THE EASTERN CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. A DECENT             
PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP ACROSS THE CWA TODAY BEFORE THE CENTER OF             
THE HIGH MOVES IN...SO EXPECTING WINDS IN THE WINDY CATEGORY                    
TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN CWA. THE HIGH BECOMES THE DOMINANT            
FEATURE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY...WHEN IT SHIFTS SLIGHTLY TO             
THE EAST. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT              
LAKES WILL DROP TO THE NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER BY SUNDAY               
EVENING...THEN SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT. VIRTUALLY NO            
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT...SO JUST EXPECT A                
WIND SHIFT AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER               
WITH ITS PASSAGE.                                                               
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH THE HIGH OVER THE              
REGION TODAY AND SATURDAY. H85 TEMPS FALL TO BETWEEN -5 AND -10                 
DEGREES CELSIUS TONIGHT...AND WITH CLEAR SKIES UNDER THE HIGH...WILL            
LIKELY SEE TEMPS FALL INTO THE 20S MOST AREAS. SHOULD SEE A BIT OF A            
WARMING TREND ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY WAA FLOW SETS UP AHEAD OF THE              
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.                                                         
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY                                            
GFS/DGEX POINTING TOWARDS NORTHERLY FLOW AND COOLISH TEMPERATURES IN            
THE EXTENDED. THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT              
LAKES AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES               
SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY WITH               
THIS SETUP...BUT DO NOT HAVE MUCH FAITH IN ANY PRECIPITATION OR                 
TIMING FOR RIGHT NOW SO EXTENDED REMAINS DRY. MODELS HINT AT MOSTLY             
CAA DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH 850MB TEMPS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE                
DIGITS BELOW ZERO. SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES                
WITH MORNING LOWS NEAR FREEZING. TRENDED TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES               
BASED ON LATEST MEX GUIDANCE WHICH HAS COOLED CONSIDERABLY FOR                  
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PARKIN/TARVER                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
630 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2005                                                      
.UPDATE...CONVECTION FIRING ALONG BOUNDARY ACROSS EWX CWA THIS                  
EVENING.  LACK OF DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL LIKELY ALLOW THESE STORMS              
TO QUICKLY WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES BUT THESE              
CELLS SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE                
CWA.  WILL ISSUE A QUICK UPDATE TO RAISE POPS ACROSS THE AREA                   
THROUGH 6Z.                                                                     
94                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
.SHORT-TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...MESOSCALE BOUNDARY               
INTERACTIONS WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS THEN A COLD              
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FAVORING A LESS            
AGGRESSIVE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE PER THE RUC POINT SOUNDINGS. GOES              
SOUNDER DATA SUPPORTS LOWER PWATS AS SYNOPTIC-SCALE SUBSIDENCE                  
CONTINUES IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THIS IS             
ALSO LEADING TO WARMER MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES. MODERATE            
INSTABILITY DUE TO DIABATIC HEATING AND LOWER TROPOSPHERIC                      
CONVERGENCE AND MARGINAL LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE ABLE TO OVERCOME               
THIS INHIBITOR VERY WELL SO WILL GRADE POPS FROM CHANCE NORTHWEST TO            
SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTHEAST. STRONG GUSTY WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN               
THREAT WITH ANY DEEPER CONVECTION SO WILL TONE DOWN THE HWO. A                  
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL LINGER EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS THE FAR              
SOUTHWEST CWA. ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL               
MIXING WILL GENERATE BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE EASTERN CWA                     
TONIGHT/SATURDAY WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE. MID/UPPER-LEVEL               
CLOUDINESS WILL NOT ENTIRELY DISSIPATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS               
WARM THERMAL ADVECTION/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS               
OCCURS AT THESE LEVELS. GENERALLY STAYED AT OR ABOVE THE WARMEST                
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE DUE TO AN INFLUENTIAL NORTHEAST WIND               
OFF THE WATER. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOKED REASONABLE FOR MAXES                
SATURDAY.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...FORCING FOR CONVECTION UNIMPRESSIVE SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE             
POPS TONIGHT. ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES/SUFFICIENT VERTICAL MIXING             
WILL GENERATE SCA CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT/SATURDAY WITH GUSTS TO 30                
KNOTS POSSIBLE.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CIGS PREVAIL WITH A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION              
MAINLY BETWEEN 01Z-05Z. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT              
IN N/NE WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 30              
KNOTS THROUGH 18Z.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.LONG-TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...NAM/GFS DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO             
THE UPPER MID/UPPER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE            
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY/MONDAY. WL FOCUS ON THE             
FACT THAT THE GFS/NOGAPS/CANADIAN KEEP THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WEST OF            
THE CWFA UNTIL AROUD 0Z TUESDAY. THUS...ANTICIPATE SYNOPTIC SCALE               
LIFT SUNDAY AND MONDAY OVR THE REGION. INCREASING MSTR/INSTABILITY              
IN ADVANCE OF THE FOREGIONG SYSTEM WL OCCUR BY SUNDAY AFTN. EXPECT              
THE COMBINATION OF MSTR/INSTABILITY AND UPPER FORCING TO CONTRIBUTE             
TO CONVECTION SUNDAY NGT OVR THE WRN CWFA...AND CONTINUE AREAWIDE               
MONDAY. THE GFS IS NOW CONSISTENT WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER TROUGH              
PROGD TO DIG ACRS THE MIDWEST/PLAINS REGION TUE/TUE NGT. THUS...WL              
FCST FROPA EARLY TUESDAY...CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS. ALTHOUGH EXPECT             
THE CWFA TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR...INCREASING UPPER CONVERGENCE                
EXPECTED TUESDAY NGT. WL FCST LOWER POPS TUESDAY NGT. EXPECT DRY                
CONDITIONS WED OWING TO MODERATE/STG MID/UPPER Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE.             
INCREASING MSTR/RTN FLOW EXPECTED THU/FRI IN RESPONSE TO A                      
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW UPSTREAM...IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT UPPER                 
SYSTEM/UPPER ZONAL FLOW OVR THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. YET WL NOT                  
INCLUDE PCPN FOR FRIDAY OWING TO UNCERTAINITY REGARDING TIMING OF               
SUFFICIENT PW VALUES.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS                                                    
CORPUS CHRISTI  64 81 58 75 62 / 20 05 00 00 00                                 
VICTORIA        57 78 53 74 58 / 40 05 00 00 00                                 
LAREDO          65 81 61 77 60 / 40 20 05 00 20                                 
ALICE           62 82 56 76 58 / 30 05 00 00 10                                 
ROCKPORT        64 80 60 73 64 / 20 05 00 00 00                                 
COTULLA         63 81 58 76 57 / 40 05 05 00 20                                 
&&                                                                              
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...SCA GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275.                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
85/SHORT-TERM                                                                   
87/LONG-TERM                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
254 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2005                                                      
.SHORT-TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...MESOSCALE BOUNDARY               
INTERACTIONS WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS THEN A COLD              
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FAVORING A LESS            
AGGRESSIVE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE PER THE RUC POINT SOUNDINGS. GOES              
SOUNDER DATA SUPPORTS LOWER PWATS AS SYNOPTIC-SCALE SUBSIDENCE                  
CONTINUES IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THIS IS             
ALSO LEADING TO WARMER MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES. MODERATE            
INSTABILITY DUE TO DIABATIC HEATING AND LOWER TROPOSPHERIC                      
CONVERGENCE AND MARGINAL LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE ABLE TO OVERCOME               
THIS INHIBITOR VERY WELL SO WILL GRADE POPS FROM CHANCE NORTHWEST TO            
SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTHEAST. STRONG GUSTY WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN               
THREAT WITH ANY DEEPER CONVECTION SO WILL TONE DOWN THE HWO. A                  
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL LINGER EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS THE FAR              
SOUTHWEST CWA. ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL               
MIXING WILL GENERATE BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE EASTERN CWA                     
TONIGHT/SATURDAY WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE. MID/UPPER-LEVEL               
CLOUDINESS WILL NOT ENTIRELY DISSIPATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS               
WARM THERMAL ADVECTION/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS               
OCCURS AT THESE LEVELS. GENERALLY STAYED AT OR ABOVE THE WARMEST                
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE DUE TO AN INFLUENTIAL NORTHEAST WIND               
OFF THE WATER. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOKED REASONABLE FOR MAXES                
SATURDAY.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...FORCING FOR CONVECTION UNIMPRESSIVE SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE             
POPS TONIGHT. ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES/SUFFICIENT VERTICAL MIXING             
WILL GENERATE SCA CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT/SATURDAY WITH GUSTS TO 30                
KNOTS POSSIBLE.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CIGS PREVAIL WITH A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION              
MAINLY BETWEEN 01Z-05Z. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT              
IN N/NE WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 30              
KNOTS THROUGH 18Z.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.LONG-TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...NAM/GFS DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO             
THE UPPER MID/UPPER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE            
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY/MONDAY. WL FOCUS ON THE             
FACT THAT THE GFS/NOGAPS/CANADIAN KEEP THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WEST OF            
THE CWFA UNTIL AROUD 0Z TUESDAY. THUS...ANTICIPATE SYNOPTIC SCALE               
LIFT SUNDAY AND MONDAY OVR THE REGION. INCREASING MSTR/INSTABILITY              
IN ADVANCE OF THE FOREGIONG SYSTEM WL OCCUR BY SUNDAY AFTN. EXPECT              
THE COMBINATION OF MSTR/INSTABILITY AND UPPER FORCING TO CONTRIBUTE             
TO CONVECTION SUNDAY NGT OVR THE WRN CWFA...AND CONTINUE AREAWIDE               
MONDAY. THE GFS IS NOW CONSISTENT WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER TROUGH              
PROGD TO DIG ACRS THE MIDWEST/PLAINS REGION TUE/TUE NGT. THUS...WL              
FCST FROPA EARLY TUESDAY...CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS. ALTHOUGH EXPECT             
THE CWFA TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR...INCREASING UPPER CONVERGENCE                
EXPECTED TUESDAY NGT. WL FCST LOWER POPS TUESDAY NGT. EXPECT DRY                
CONDITIONS WED OWING TO MODERATE/STG MID/UPPER Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE.             
INCREASING MSTR/RTN FLOW EXPECTED THU/FRI IN RESPONSE TO A                      
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW UPSTREAM...IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT UPPER                 
SYSTEM/UPPER ZONAL FLOW OVR THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. YET WL NOT                  
INCLUDE PCPN FOR FRIDAY OWING TO UNCERTAINITY REGARDING TIMING OF               
SUFFICIENT PW VALUES.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS                                                    
CORPUS CHRISTI  64 81 58 75 62 / 20 05 00 00 00                                 
VICTORIA        57 78 53 74 58 / 40 05 00 00 00                                 
LAREDO          65 81 61 77 60 / 40 20 05 00 20                                 
ALICE           62 82 56 76 58 / 30 05 00 00 10                                 
ROCKPORT        64 80 60 73 64 / 20 05 00 00 00                                 
COTULLA         63 81 58 76 57 / 40 05 05 00 20                                 
&&                                                                              
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...SCA GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275.                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
85/SHORT-TERM                                                                   
87/LONG-TERM                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX                                      
227 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE GUADALUPE             
MOUNTAINS TO THE TRANS PECOS AND SOUTHERN PERMIAN BASIN REGIONS OF              
WEST TEXAS. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTH AND WEST               
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE             
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS/LOWER TRANS PECOS/BIG BEND                 
REGION BY EARLY EVENING. WINDS ARE ALREADY NEAR WARNING CRITERIA AT             
GUADALUPE PASS THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST ETA-12 AND RUC FORECASTS                  
INDICATE THAT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN EVEN FURTHER LATER             
TONIGHT. WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR LOCATIONS              
IN THE VICINITY OF GUADALUPE PASS /TXZ258/ THROUGH 10Z SATURDAY                 
MORNING...IN ANTICIPATION OF WIND SPEEDS IN THE 35-45 MPH RANGE                 
LATER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD SLACKEN                 
ENOUGH FOR A DECREASING TREND IN WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF            
THE FORECAST AREA.                                                              
A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE TEXAS                      
PANHANDLE/SOUTH PLAINS TONIGHT...WITH WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY OVER              
MOST LOCATIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.                  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH MOST LOCATIONS DROPPING OFF INTO               
THE 40S. PERIODS OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE                
OVERHEAD THROUGH THE NIGHT.                                                     
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
A LARGE FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA EARLY               
SATURDAY...BEFORE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND              
WAXING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RESULT IN DISSIPATION OF SAME.  SHOULD BE A            
PLEASANT AFTERNOON WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.               
SURFACE RIDGE WILL HOLD ENOUGH SWAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR LOW                 
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.  EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD BE RATHER STRONG IN THE               
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE PASS.  WIND            
SPEEDS THROUGH THE GUADALUPES APPEAR MARGINAL BY LATE TONIGHT...SO              
WILL LET MID SHIFT ASSESS FOR THE STAURDAY MORNING ISSUANCE.                    
UPPER RIDGE GETS FLATTENED SUNDAY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET AND               
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRANSLATE EASTWARD INTO THE CWA.                   
SURFACE DEWPOINTS APPEAR TO BE PRETTY LOW ON SUNDAY...BUT HAVE                  
INCREASED THE CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE AREA.  THIS DUE TO                 
AVAILIBILITY OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE... GOOD MID LEVEL                  
SUPPORT FROM PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF                
100+ KT H25 JET NOSING INTO THE AREA...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES                
AROUND 7 C/KM.  SINCE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE              
DURING THIS TIME...A FEW AREAS COULD SEE A TENTH OR QUARTER INCH OF             
RAIN FROM ANY TSRA THAT DEVELOP...BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE                 
FAIRLY LIGHT RAIN AS MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY                    
EVAPORATE OVERCOMING DRY LOWER LEVELS.  KNOCKED A FEW DEGREES OFF               
MAX TEMPS SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OR SO OF THE               
CWA WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE MOST PROMINENT.                                        
FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON MONDAY AND A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE                 
GRADIENT AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL IMPART DECENT WESTERLY                
WIND SPEEDS TO MOST LOCATIONS.  COULD SEE STRONG WINDS IN THE                   
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AGAIN...BUT CONFIDENCE LEVEL DICTATES ONLY A                
MENTION IN THE HWO ATTM.  TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SOMEWHAT...BUT BE              
TEMPERED BY POSSIBLE MOIST GROUND AND LOWER HEIGHTS.  AS UPPER FLOW             
REMAINS AMPLIFIED OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. ANOTHER SERIES OF SHORTWAVE             
TROUGHS COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP...BUT MAINLY OVER THE               
NORTHERN CWA.  WHAT APPEARS MORE CERTAIN IS A COLD FRONT PUSHING                
SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.  CONSIDERING THE DECENT AGREEMENT               
AMONGST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...THE ASSOCIATED COOLER H85 TEMPS...                
LOWER HEIGHTS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME CLOUD COVER HAVE LOWERED            
MAX TEMPS TUESDAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.  SURFACE RIDGE THAT PUSHES             
INTO THE AREA SHOULD NOT LAST LONG AS WESTERLY FLOW AIDS IN                     
TRANSLATING SAME OUT OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY.  PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW            
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY...WHILE TEMPS             
WARM BACK TO NORMAL AND ABOVE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
BIG SPRING TX              45  70  48  70 /   0   0   0  40                     
CARLSBAD NM                46  74  50  81 /   0   0  20  30                     
DRYDEN TX                  52  74  52  76 /   0  10  10  30                     
FORT STOCKTON TX           50  73  53  77 /   0  10  10  40                     
GUADALUPE PASS TX          48  67  51  75 /   0   0  20  20                     
HOBBS NM                   46  73  49  80 /   0   0  20  30                     
MARFA TX                   44  70  46  77 /   0  10  20  20                     
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    45  72  48  72 /   0   0   0  40                     
ODESSA TX                  46  75  51  75 /   0   0   0  40                     
WINK TX                    47  78  52  80 /   0   0  10  40                     
&&                                                                              
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NM...NONE.                                                                      
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM FRIDAY UNTIL 5 AM CDT                
      SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONE...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
21/67                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM UPDATE                                    
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
725 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...                                         
COULD GET RATHER BUSY LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE CONVECTION                    
CURRENTLY W OF THE FCST AREA...SO OPTED TO FOLLOW UP WITH AN EARLY              
EVENING UPDATE. CURRENTLY...WARM FRONT IS JUST N OF THE CENTRAL                 
VA/NC BORDER...THEN SAGS SE TOWARD THE VA/NC COAST AS THE COOLER                
MARINE LAYER IMPINGES ON THE FRONT. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE                
WARM FRONT HAD PUSHED A LITTLE FARTHER N JUST A FEW HOURS AGO...                
(I.E. JUST N OF PETERSBURG AT 4-5 PM)...HOWEVER MORE RECENTLY THE               
COOLER MARINE LAYER (WITH BNDRY NOTED ON KAKQ 88D CLEAR-AIR                     
REFLECTIVITY) HAS SUPPRESSED THE FRONT A LITTLE FARTHER S ONCE                  
AGAIN.                                                                          
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT IS TO WHAT DEGREE THE               
INCREASING NOCTURNAL (SFC-BASED) STABILITY WILL HAVE ON THE                     
APPROACHING LINE OF CONVECTION. RECENT RUC MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW            
A FAIRLY DEFINITIVE LOW LEVEL CAP OR INVERSION DEVELOPING ~950 MB               
AFTER 00Z. THIS DEGREE OF STABILITY WOULD DECREASE THE PROBABILITY              
OF STRONG WIND GUSTS REACHING THE SURFACE...EVEN AS THE LOW LEVEL               
(ELEVATED) JET MOVES INTO THE REGION. WILL ALSO BE ASSESSING WHETHER            
OR NOT THE ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE E OF THE MNTNS (AS SURFACE-BASED              
CELLS TYPICALLY DO). THE UPSHOT...THE DEGREE OF DYNAMICAL FORCING               
(UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE/INCREASING SRLY LOW LEVEL JET) WOULD STILL              
SUPPORT NUMEROUS OR A COMPLEX OF CELLS INTO OUR REGION OVERNIGHT...             
AS THE CONVECTION TRANSITIONS FROM SURFACE-BASED TO ELEVATED. MID               
LEVEL OR 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES CLIMBING CLOSE TO 7C/KM LATE                    
CERTAINLY WILL NOT HURT MATTERS...EITHER.                                       
WILL MAKE MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE SHORT TERM FORECASTS                       
(ESPECIALLY GRIDDED BASED PRODUCTS) EARLY THIS EVENING BASED ON THE             
LATEST TRENDS. AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT AN UPDATE TO THE WORDED              
(ZONE) FORECAST...THAT MAY CHANGE HOWEVER AFTER 9 PM.                           
MARINE FORECAST...HEADLINES (SCA) CONTINUE.                                     
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...STARTING WITH LATE TONIGHT...                       
LLJ FCSTD TO INCRS TO ARND 50KT OVRNGT...HELPING WTH SPD                        
CNVRGNC...AND INCRSG LLVL SHEAR THAT MAY AFFECT THE MODE OF PRE                 
FRONTAL CNVCTN WHEN IT TRACKS THRU OUR REGION OVRNGT. LIMITING                  
FACTOR MAY BE LACK OF INSTBLTY...SO WL HV TO TRACK THE RETREAT OF               
THE MARINE LYR...AS AREAS FROM JUST N OF THE MARINE LYR BNDRY ON S              
HV CHCS FOR ISOLD SVR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVRNGT. WTH MODEL                 
FCSTD 0-1KM DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR...WL THERE BE ENUF INSTBLTY             
FOR ISOLD TORNADO? WL JUST HV TO WATCH CNVCTV TRENDS...AS PRE                   
FRONTAL CNVCTN USUALLY DSN'T PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SVR DUE TO LACK OF              
MIDLVL COOLING/DRYING. MDLS MAY NOT BE HANDLING THE MERGER OF THE OH            
VALLEY UPR SYSTEM WTH THE DIVING UPR SYSTEM OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS               
VRY WELL...WHCH EVENTUALLY BECOMES THE STG UPR CUT OFF LOW. 00Z AREA            
SNDGS SHUD PROVIDE LOTS OF DETAILS INTO THE MODES OF CNVCTN MOST                
LKLY OVRNGT.                                                                    
SFC AND H8 BNDRY TRACKS THRU THE REGION DURG THE DAY TMRW...AND                 
SHARP CONTRAST ALG BNDRY...ALG WTH DEEP COOLING/DRYING...SHUD                   
RESULT IN NEW LN OF CNVCTN FORMING OVR CNTRL VA...STRENGTHENING                 
AND TRACKING TO THE COAST MIDDAY THRU THE AFTN...WTH AGN ANTHR CHC              
FOR SVR. VRY TIGHT H8 THETA-E GRAD TRACKS RAPIDLY E...ALG WTH GUD               
BNDRY LYR FRONTOGENESIS...ALSO SUPPORTS PTNL SVR LN OF CNVCTN FROM              
CNTRL VA TO CSTL AREAS...CHARACTERSTIC OF SGNFCNT SVR WX                        
OUTBREAK...IF ENUF INSTBLTY AND SHEAR COINCIDES WTH THE FVRBL                   
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPR JET OVR OUR REGION. MAY HV MORE                    
DISCRETE CELLS TMRW DUE TO DOWNSLOPE FLO AND MIDLVL DRYING...ALSO               
DEEP LYR SHEAR STILL RLTVLY HIGH. STAY TUNED. SOME DOWNSLOPE                    
COMPONENT TO DEEP FLO WL RESULT IN PDS OF CLOUDS AND SUN ALL                    
DAY...SO TEMPS WL RCH 70S.                                                      
ALL SHRA/TSTM EXIT LT TMRW AFTN AND EVE...AND THE COOLDOWN                      
COMMENCES AS OUR UPR SYSTEM CUTS OFF. LOTS OF INSTBLTY CLOUDINESS               
PSBL SUNDAY WTH COLD POOL ALF...EVEN WTH THE DEEP DOWNSLOPE FLO.                
SOME OF THE INSTBLTY CLOUDINESS MAY BECOME ISOLD SHRA/TSRA...EVEN               
WTH HGH TEMPS ARND 60.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                     
UPR LOW SLOWLY LIFTS N INTO CANADA...WTH SLOW MODERATION IN OUR                 
AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LONG RANGE GDNC STILL SUPPORTING AN UPR                
IMPULSE BRINGING 2 CHCS FOR RAIN...ONE PD OF WAA ASSOC WTH WARM                 
FRONT TUE NGT...AND THEN ASSOC WTH COLD FRONT WED AND WED NGT.                  
CLRG THU AND FRI...BUT WTH MEAN UPR TROF OVR THE REGION...AIDED BY              
DOWNSTREAM UPR BLOCKING...AND FCSTD H8 TEMPS AS COOL AS THEY ARE                
FCSTD...TEMPS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THRU THE XTND.                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH NEXT 24 HOURS AS CEILINGS AND VSBYS              
LOWER IN SHRA/TSTMS WITH APPROACHING SURFACE BOUNDARY.                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
SOUTHERLY WIND INCREASING TO SCA CONDITIONS ALL WATERS FOR TNGT AND             
SAT...AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.                                   
&&                                                                              
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVSY FOR ATLC COASTAL WATERS FENWICK ISLAND TO            
CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT...CHES BAY SOUTH OF SMITH POINT...AND                     
CURRITUCK SOUND.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM (UPDATE)...BH                                                        
LONG TERM...NS                                                                  
AVIATION...22                                                                   
MARINE...22                                                                     
</PRE></TT></td>   va                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
302 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON PRECIPITATION TRENDS AND TYPES                  
TONIGHT AND OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.                       
IN THE SHORT TERM...NGM/NAM/GFS/RUC PROGS IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT               
WITH EVOLUTION OF INDIANA LOW INTO A STACKED SYSTEM OVER THE FAR                
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY. WILL EXTEND TIME OF                       
PRECIPITATION OVER CWA OVERNIGHT...BUT KEEP IN THE CHANCY CATEGORY.             
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT COMBINATION OF PROGGED 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES           
BELOW OC AND 1000/500 MILLIBAR THICKNESSES BELOW 5340 AFTER MIDNIGHT            
WILL CAUSE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER AM NOT                       
ANTICIPATING ANY SNOW STICKING TO GROUND.                                       
IN THE FAR TERM...GFS/NAM PROGS CONTINUE AGREE TO DEVELOP LARGE COLD            
UPPER SYSTEM EAST OF CWA AND SLOWLY RETROGRADE LOW TOWARD HUDSON/S              
BAY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THIS KEEPS CWA FOR THE MOST PART IN A VERY COOL           
NORTHWEST AIRFLOW.  FEEL THAT EASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA WHERE BEST                
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NOTED ALONG WITH SOME SHALLOW INSTABILITY               
DEPICTED BY BUFKIT DATA ENOUGH TO MENTION SOME AFTERNOON INSTABILITY            
SHOWERS SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...A DECENT SPOKE OF ENERGY REVOLVING                
AROUND THIS UPPER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS CWA MONDAY.                    
AFTERWARD A COOL AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE PATTERN EXISTS OVER CWA                  
LEADING TO CHANCY MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.                     
&&                                                                              
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
$$                                                                              
ZAJDEL                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI                                           
1015 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2005                                                     
.SHORT-TERM...UPDATED TODAYS FORECAST. COLD AIR NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS            
YESTERDAYS MODELS DEPICTED WITH CURRENT RUC SHOWING 0 DEG C LINE PUSHING        
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  MORNING TEMPS UNDER SOME SUNSHINE IN THE MID           
40S TO LOWER 50S. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF SNOW EXCEPT FOR LATE OVER FAR         
NORTH.  ALSO UPDATED SHOWER WORDING TO SCATTERED BASED ON RADARS OUT OF         
DLH AND MQT.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TE                                                                              
WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
215 AM MDT SAT APR 23 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY-MONDAY)                                                    
QUIET WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SEPARATES                
THE HIGH PLAINS FROM UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREAS TO OUR EAST                 
AND WEST. 850 TEMPERATURES SHOW LITTLE CHANGE AND WITH HIGH                     
PRESSURE DICTATING AN EASTERLY TYPE WIND WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS                   
SIMILAR TO FRIDAYS READINGS. MIN TEMPS WILL BE COOLEST OVER THE                 
EAST GIVEN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SURFACE HIGH WHILE OVER THE WEST A               
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND WILL KEEP THINGS MIXED A BIT MORE.                         
SUNDAY...MODELS COMING INTO A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT OF              
INCOMING PIECE OF WEST COAST SYSTEM. IN GENERAL...EXPECT AN                     
ELONGATED AND STRETCHED OUT VORT MAX TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST                 
1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYS END. GIVEN SOME CONSISTENT QPF                 
FORECASTS FROM HPC/GFS/NGM AND RUC13 WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY               
OVER THE SOUTHWEST 1/3 OF THE AREA WHERE CONFIDENCE IS GREATEST.                
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDINESS AND                   
PRECIPITATION. THIS UPPER FEATURE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT SO HIGH              
CHANCE POPS LOOK TO REMAIN WARRANTED EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW                  
LEVEL JET SUPPORTS INFLUX OF MOISTURE. AFTER MIDNIGHT UPPER TROUGH              
AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AS DOES THE LOW LEVEL JET. COMBINED THE                   
MOS/2M AND 850 MODIFIED AND UNMODIFIED FOR HIGHS GIVEN EXPECTED                 
PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDINESS.                                                   
MONDAY...LOOKS A BIT UNSETTLED WITH QPF FORECASTS GENERALLY LIGHT.              
WITHOUT A GOOD FEEL AND UPPER LOW OR REMNANTS IN THE VICINITY KEPT              
SOME SMALL POPS IN TACT. HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.                 
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)                                           
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. I DID LOOK THROUGH THE GRIDS AND                   
TWEAKED SKY AND DEWPOINT GRIDS A BIT HERE AND THERE TO BETTER                   
MATCH SURROUNDING OFFICES. UPPER PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED AND                  
COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH 500 TROUGH OR ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA               
THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.KS...NONE.                                                                     
.NE...NONE.                                                                     
.CO...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DDT                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
532 AM EDT SAT APR 23 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
BIGGEST CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST THIS MORNING IS WITH COLD TEMPS              
AND SNOWFALL POTENTIAL. AS SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL OFF TO THE             
NORTHEAST...STIFF WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW AND UPPER LOW DIVING INTO             
AREA WILL MEAN SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY TODAY                 
UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS THE                
AREA...FAIRLY EFFICIENT UPSLOPE FLOW AND VORT LOBES ROTATING AROUND             
UPPER LOW WILL COMBINE TO KEEP POPS HIGH THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.                  
WITH BLACK MOUNTAIN TEMPS ALREADY NEAR 40 AS OF 5 AM THIS                       
MORNING...EXPECT THEM TO MIX WITH SNOW BY NOON...BUT MOST AREAS WILL            
HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO DO SO. OVERNIGHT...MOST ALL               
AREAS WILL SEE A GOOD CHANCE FOR A MIX...BEFORE ALL BUT ELEVATIONS              
ABOVE 2500 FEET TURN BACK TO ALL RAIN EARLY SUNDAY.                             
LOOKS AS THOUGH ETA12 IS RUNNING TOO HIGH WITH OVERALL QPF                      
AMOUNTS...AND WAY OFF WITH THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATOR. WENT MUCH                  
CLOSER TO GFS/HPC QPF SOLUTIONS. FEEL AS THOUGH GROUNDS WILL BE                 
WET/WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS AT BAY FOR THE                
MOST PART. BUT SAYING THAT...THERE WILL BE EXCEPTIONS AT ELEVATIONS             
ABOVE 2500 FEET...WHERE UP TO AN INCH LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET. DID/T              
FEEL AS THOUGH ADVISORY WAS WARRANTED AT THIS JUNCTURE...ALTHOUGH               
FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO FOCUS ON MOUNTAIN COUNTIES IN THE SE FOR             
FURTHER CHANGES. EITHER WAY...DID CONSIDER AN ADVISORY SIMPLY                   
BECAUSE THIS SNOW IS COMING AT SUCH A LATE TIME IN THE SEASON...BUT             
HELD OFF BECAUSE OF THE LOW AMOUNTS EXPECTED.                                   
MOS TEMPS FOR LOWS TONIGHT HAVE COME UP A DEGREE OR TWO...BUT                   
FROST/FREEZE CONSIDERATIONS WILL STILL NEED TO BE MADE WITH                     
AFTERNOON PACKAGE TODAY.                                                        
AS UPPER LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NE EARLY MONDAY...PC SKIES WILL RETURN            
BRIEFLY...ALLOWING US TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF QUICKLY RISING 850MB                 
TEMPS IN IT/S WAKE.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
800 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2005                                                      
THERE HAVE BEEN MANY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL                   
KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHERN INDIANA. THE REPORTS INCLUDE A POSSIBLE                 
TORNADO NEAR LOUISVILLE...LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WIND. THE AREA              
IS UNDER A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.  THE               
LATEST RUC MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE MOST ACTIVE AREA WILL MOST               
LIKELY BE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA IN THE MONTGOMERY...BATH              
...ROWAN AND FLEMING COUNTIES. THIS IS WHERE THE GREATEST                       
INSTABILITY AND CAPE WILL BE. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.             
417 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2005                                                      
NEAR TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...                                     
SPC HAS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN A MODERATE RISK AND THE              
REST OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE              
PRIMARY THREATS. SOUNDINGS SHOW LI/S OF -7 AND CAPES AROUND 1500                
J/KG. CLOUDS ARE ALSO BEGINNING TO THIN OUT OVER MOST OF THE CWA.               
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POPPED UP OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF               
THE STATE AND SOUTHERN INDIANA AND WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA DURING             
THE EVENING HOURS. WENT CATEGORICAL FOR POPS TONIGHT ACROSS THE                 
BOARD.                                                                          
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE NEAR TERM ARE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF             
SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING AND THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING              
ACROSS EASTERN KY TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT TRICKY...WITH             
PLENTY OF CAA BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE             
DAY ON SATURDAY. WITH WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES...EXPECT ONLY LIGHT              
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 2500 FEET TOMORROW NIGHT. WRAP AROUND                  
PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO END ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS                
EAST. SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY            
NIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL                
BRING DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY.                                                 
EXTENDED (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                            
LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS ENSEMBLE FOR THE EXTENDED. MAIN CHANGES WERE             
TO LOWER TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES...AS THE PATTERN ALOFT SLOWLY               
TRANSITIONS FROM CYCLONIC TO ZONAL FLOW...AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES                
NORTHEAST. BUMPED UP POPS ON TUESDAY...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES              
THROUGH THE AREA. ENDED POPS ON WEDNESDAY...AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE             
PULLS EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF              
THE WORKWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY THROUGH THE END OF THE                   
WEEK...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA.                                   
1206 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2005                                                     
MADE MULTIPLE UPDATES TO THE FORECAST. HAVE GONE WITH CATEGORICAL               
POPS FOR ALL AREAS TONIGHT. LONG ANTICIPATED CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE            
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ARRIVING FROM THE WEST LATE THIS                           
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING...AND SEE NO REASON TO ARGUE WITH THE              
PERSISTENT HIGH MOS POPS. HAVE ALSO UPDATED TO LIKELY POPS FOR ALL              
BUT THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY                 
NIGHT. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD YIELD               
SHOWERS. THE MOISTURE WILL NOT BE AS DEEP IN OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.            
HAVE ALSO CHANGED SATURDAY TEMPS TO REFLECT STEADY OR FALLING                   
DAYTIME READINGS.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PIEPER                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
407 AM EDT SAT APR 23 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST IS THE PRECIPITATION AND WIND               
POTENTIAL FOR TODAY.                                                            
WATER VAPOR AND RUC/ETA SHOWING A LOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...A RIDGE              
ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS...AND ANOTHER LOW MOVING ON SHORE OVER                    
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE              
OVER WESTERN ONTARIO AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA ROTATING AROUND THE LAKE            
SUPERIOR LOW. WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE SLIDING THROUGH THE RIDGE. SURFACE            
ANALYSIS INDICATE A LOW OVER EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH A COLD              
FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. A RIDGE             
STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN HUDSON BAY SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAKOTAS             
INTO THE CENTRAL STATES. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN                     
SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHWEST TO A LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MOISTURE            
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW KEEPING THE MEAN SURFACE-500MB RH OVER LOWER            
MICHIGAN AROUND 90 PERCENT...WHILE OVER THE U.P. THE RH IS AROUND 50            
PERCENT.                                                                        
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL SPIN INTO OHIO TODAY AS AN ASSOCIATED                    
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH WISCONSIN. THE SURFACE LOW OVER OHIO WILL               
PUSH NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DIRECTING THE ACCOMPANYING            
COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST. THE NORTHERN PLAINS RIDGE            
WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN ONTARIO AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. AS THE RIDGE            
APPROACHES AND THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE THE LOWER GREAT                   
LAKES...THE GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN ONLY A LITTLE. THUS THE WINDS WILL            
REMAIN STRONG OVER THE AREA. DRY AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA WITH             
THE RIDGE. THE DRIER AIR WILL ALSO BRING SOME ADDITIONAL SUN TO THE             
AREA. TRAJECTORY FLOW WILL BRING THE AIR MASS THAT WAS JUST WEST OF             
JAMES BAY YESTERDAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THUS COLD AIR                 
ADVECTION WILL HELP TO HOLD DOWN THE TEMPERATURES. 850MB                        
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND -10C. LAPSE RATE FAVOR LES                          
ENHANCEMENT...HOWEVER...ETA/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY DRY             
LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FLURRY OR TWO MAY                 
OCCUR ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE AND OVER THE EAST SO WILL KEEP              
IT IN. SURFACE HEATING WILL WARM THIS AIR A BIT BY LATE AFTERNOON.              
THE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING KEEPING THE TEMPERATURES ABOUT 4F                  
WARMER THAN GUIDANCE DEPICTS. WITH THE ADDITION OF SUN AND DRY AIR              
ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT TO SEE TEMPERATURES JUST A COUPLE             
OF DEGREE ABOVE GUIDANCE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL CHANGE LITTLE             
TODAY...THUS WINDS SHOULD REMAIN 15 TO 25 MPH WHICH IS WHAT GUIDANCE            
SUGGESTS. THE CURRENT 1ST PERIOD TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE.                  
THE MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT            
AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. THE SHORTWAVE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW                
WILL EDGE INTO WESTERN U.P. A WEAK LOW CENTER WILL DEVELOP OVER                 
NORTHEAST MANITOBA. A WEAK RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO WESTERN ONTARIO.               
THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE TO LAKE ONTARIO...WHILE THE NORTHERN                  
PLAINS RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE THE UPPER              
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. DRY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE                   
FORECAST AREA...AND SHOULD KEEP THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO A                
MINIMUM. THE AIR MASS WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH THE MEAN RH A LITTLE            
HIGHER OVER FAR EASTERN PART OF THE CWA PER SOUNDING FORECASTS.                 
SURFACE ANALYSIS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY DRY AT THE                
SURFACE...SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF FLURRIES GOING ALONG THE LAKE                
SUPERIOR SHORE OVER NORTH CENTRAL U.P. AND OVER THE FAR EAST CWA.               
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER LAKE ONTARIO SUNDAY                 
NIGHT...WHILE THE LOW OVER MANITOBA WILL SLIDES INTO NORTHWEST                  
MINNESOTA. WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING BETWEEN THESE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT             
ACROSS THE U.P. SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE A LITTLE NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST             
ONTARIO...WHILE THE NORTHERN PLAINS RIDGE WEAKENS. ETA/GFS IN GOOD              
AGREEMENT WHERE THE MEAN SURFACE-500MB RH WILL BE GREATER THAN 80               
PERCENT OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA. THUS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT              
SNOW OVER THE FAR EAST END OF THE CWA. MODELS SHOWING THE                       
SURFACE-900MB RH INCREASING MAINLY OVER THE FAR EAST CWA.                       
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT INTO EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO ON MONDAY.               
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW THAT             
WAS OVER MINNESOTA WILL FILL INTO A TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH                     
MINNESOTA. SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE TO JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY. ANOTHER            
WEAKER LOW WILL DEVELOP UNDER THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...AND BE OVER                
EASTERN CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS WILL DESTABLIZE THE AIR MASS. THE               
MEAN SURFACE-500MB RH WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 90 PERCENT OVER LAKE              
SUPERIOR...AND LITTLE LESS OVER THE SOUTHERN U.P. THUS WILL KEEP                
RAIN IN THE FORECAST.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
    GALE WARNING EAST 2/3 OF LAKE SUPERIOR.                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DLG                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
128 AM EDT SAT APR 23 2005                                                      
.AVIATION (6Z-6Z)...                                                            
STRONG LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED FROM CVG TOWARDS OH/WV BORDER            
WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE NORTH.               
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR AND ARE EXPECTED             
TO STAY THERE AS STRONG COLD PUSH BRINGS IN 20KT SUSTAINED WINDS                
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR WILL PROMOTE SHOWER             
ACTIVITY FOR ALL SITES TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH CONTINUED LOW CIGS              
AND RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS.                                                      
HAVE CHANGED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO SNOW LATE TODAY AND EXPECT SNOW TO              
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF FCST PERIOD AS THE CAA AND STRONG NRLY               
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.                                        
FRANKS                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...                                                        
(ISSUED 925 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                 
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEPENING SURFACE                                        
LOW TO THE EAST OF CINCINNATI.  KILN SHOWING SEVERE CONVECTION JUST             
AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW.  KILN SHOWS WARM FRONT FROM SURFACE LOW INTO              
ROSS COUNTY.                                                                    
HAVE THROWN OUT A COUPLE OF UPDATES TO CLEAR THE TRI-                           
STATE...WHITEWATER AND MIAMI VALLEYS AND PARTS OF CENTRAL OHIO                  
(INCLUDING COLUMBUS).                                                           
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE WATCH AREA FOR WARNINGS AND THEN                   
CLEAR AS SOON AS BEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY HAVE DIMINISHED.  THIS               
SHOULD BE BEFORE 11 PM.                                                         
(ISSUED 310 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...                                    
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEPENING LOW OVER INDIANA WITH WARM FRONT               
FROM JUST NORTH OF DAYTON TO NORTH OF PORTSMOUTH.  ASSOCIATED COLD              
FRONT IS NEAR PADUCAH, KY.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CLEAR SLOT                
OVER SRN IL/IN.  CLOUDS ARE EVEN MIXING OUT IN THE SRN HALF FOR                 
FA.  BEST ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITH THE UPPER LOW IN WRN                 
IL.  HOWEVER, THERE ARE SEVERAL BANDS ON SATELLITE THAT                         
LOOK LIKE THEY COULD BE THE FOCUS OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION.                     
CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY.  FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO                 
THIS EVENING...WILL LIKELY SEE SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS THE                     
SOUTHER PART OF THE FA.  LATEST RUC SHOWING AROUND 1000 TO 1500                 
J/KG ACROSS SRN FA FOR THIS EVENING.  THE NAM IS A BIT MORE                     
GENEROUS.  0-4KM SHEAR ON THE RUC SHOWS GENERALLY 15 M/S.  BEST                 
LIFT WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 00 AND 03Z ACROSS OUR SOUTH.  BEST SEVERE               
THREAT WILL BE WIND AND HAIL.  WET BULB ZERO WILL BE AROUND 8 TO 9              
KFT AND FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 10 KFT.  MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ABOUT             
40 KTS. THE 40 KTS ALONG WITH STRONG UPDRAFTS AND POTENTIAL FOR                 
ROTATION WILL CREATE SOME DAMAGING WIND STORMS.                                 
CONDITIONS WILL COOL OFF CONSIDERABLY AS DEEP UPPER LOW DIGS INTO               
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY FOR THE WEEKEND.  THIS WILL BRING PLENTY OF               
PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION.  TEMPS WILL BE STEADY ON SATURDAY                
WITH RAIN.  TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL TO BELOW FREEZING.  SATURDAY                 
NIGHT WITH 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES SHOWING SNOW ACROSS THE WHOLE                
FA.  RIGHT NOW SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ON SUNDAY WITH MORE SNOW              
THAN RAIN IN THE NE AND MORE RAIN THAN SNOW IN THE SE.  FOR THE                 
MOMENT WILL GO WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN THE                
SOUTHEAST TO AROUND 2 INCHES IN THE NORTHEAST.                                  
WILL HOLD OF ON ISSUING A FREEZE WATCH FOR NOW AND LET NEXT SHIFT               
HANDEL AS FOCUS AT THE MOMENT IS MORE ON THE SHORT TERM.  MAV                   
TEMPS LOOK GOOD WILL GO A BIT COOLER ON SUNDAY.                                 
TIPTON                                                                          
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                            
TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EAST.  SEVERAL SHORT WAVES AND               
FRONTS MOVE ACROSS CWA WITH EACH PROVIDING CHC OF PRECIP. TIMING AND            
COVERAGE OF PRECIP QUESTION MARK. TEMPS REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE BUT             
NOT AS COLD AS WEEKEND. WENT CLOSE TO GUID.                                     
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
304 AM EDT SAT APR 23 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...                                     
BIGGEST QUESTION IN THE SHORT TERM IS HOW MUCH POP TO CARRYOVER ON              
SATURDAY MORNING. AT 2 AM...SFC FRONT APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE MOUNTAINS         
AND RUC PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL SC BETWEEN 12 AND 15 ZULU.             
LITTLE PRECIP IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT EXCEPT FOR WEAK            
TSTRM NOW MOVING THROUGH GSP CWA. 00Z FFC SOUNDING AND NAM FORECAST             
SOUNDINGS OVER CENTRAL SC INDICATE ONLY SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL           
SC AFTER 12Z. HENCE I AM INCLINED TO STICK WITH MET POPS IN SLIGHT              
CHC CATEGORY FOR WIDELY SCATTERD BRIEF LIGHT SHWRS. MAV POP JUST CAME           
IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CHANGE MY ORIGINAL LINE OF THOUGHT.        
NAM INDICATES THAT SURFACE WINDS WILLL BE FROM THE WSW WITH                     
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND               
GUSTS TO 30 MPH. WILL GO WITH LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL CWA.                   
WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE AFTER 00Z BUT PICK UP AGAIN WITH SIMILAR                   
SPEEDS ON SUNDAY. MAV AND MET TEMPS ARE SIMILAR AND WILL GO WITH A              
BLEND.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                          
FROM AROUND 18 Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...THE GFS MOVES A SERIES           
OF SHORTWAVES OVER THE AREA. WILL KEEP IN CHANCE POPS FOR THIS                  
EPISODE. AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OE SOUTHEAST             
WHICH WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NOT            
PLANNING ON MAKING ANY CHANGES TO AFTERNOON PACKAGE AT THIS TIME FOR            
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY PART OF SATURDAY.               
WINDS WILL PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONT TO 20 TO 30 KTS WITH HIGHER                 
GUSTS. SCT TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CUMULUS AROUND 2 TO 4 THOUSAND                
FEET WILL CLEAR OUT DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER                   
SUNSET TO AROUND 10 KTS.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 845 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (TNGT-MON)...                                                        
A QUICK UPDATE TO TAKE OUT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. HAVING                    
PROBLEMS GETTING GFE TO FORMAT AFD. HOPE IT WORKS ON OTHER PRODUCTS.            
BUT WILL KEEP LAKE WIND ADVISORY UP AND DROPPED LOW TEMPERATURES A              
COUPLE OF DEGREES SINCE WE ARE ALREADY AT LOW TEMPERATURES AS                   
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE COOLED THINGS OFF.                               
LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...                                                          
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO EASTERN            
TN TUE EVE AND OFFSHORE WED EVE. COLD FRONT SLOWS WED AS UPPER FLOW             
BECOMES NEARLY PARALLEL TO FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE               
SOUTHEAST THU AND FRIDAY. WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW MOS MAX/MIN WITH                
ONLY FEW ADJUSTMENTS.                                                           
AVIATION...                                                                     
SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL AND NORTH GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON              
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA/CSRA DURING THE EVENING.           
 MVFR AT TIMES DUE TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS                                     
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z. EXPECT CLEARING AFTER                     
09Z...BUT WIND INCREASING WITH 25 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE TOWARD END OF               
TAF PERIOD.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SC...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
99/99/99                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
1010 AM MDT SAT APR 23 2005                                                     
.UPDATE...PERFORMED SOME VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST. LOWERED             
SKY COVER GRIDS TO GET MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS             
VERY DRY AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD PREVENT ANY AFTERNOON CUMULUS. EXPECT            
ONLY THIN BANDS OF ALTOCUMULUS. ALSO NUDGED HIGH TEMPS DOWN 1 OR 2              
DEGREES...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES. THE MODELS INITIALIZED A            
BIT TOO WARM AT 850 MB...WITH SUB FREEZING 850 TEMPS OBSERVED AT                
DODGE CITY. EAST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WILL ALSO PROVIDE A COOLING             
INFLUENCE...BUT STILL EXPECT UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 GIVEN FULL                    
SUNSHINE. BURKE.                                                                
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
215 AM MDT SAT APR 23 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY-MONDAY)                                                    
QUIET WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SEPARATES                
THE HIGH PLAINS FROM UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREAS TO OUR EAST                 
AND WEST. 850 TEMPERATURES SHOW LITTLE CHANGE AND WITH HIGH                     
PRESSURE DICTATING AN EASTERLY TYPE WIND WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS                   
SIMILAR TO FRIDAYS READINGS. MIN TEMPS WILL BE COOLEST OVER THE                 
EAST GIVEN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SURFACE HIGH WHILE OVER THE WEST A               
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND WILL KEEP THINGS MIXED A BIT MORE.                         
SUNDAY...MODELS COMING INTO A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT OF              
INCOMING PIECE OF WEST COAST SYSTEM. IN GENERAL...EXPECT AN                     
ELONGATED AND STRETCHED OUT VORT MAX TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST                 
1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYS END. GIVEN SOME CONSISTENT QPF                 
FORECASTS FROM HPC/GFS/NGM AND RUC13 WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY               
OVER THE SOUTHWEST 1/3 OF THE AREA WHERE CONFIDENCE IS GREATEST.                
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDINESS AND                   
PRECIPITATION. THIS UPPER FEATURE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT SO HIGH              
CHANCE POPS LOOK TO REMAIN WARRANTED EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW                  
LEVEL JET SUPPORTS INFLUX OF MOISTURE. AFTER MIDNIGHT UPPER TROUGH              
AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AS DOES THE LOW LEVEL JET. COMBINED THE                   
MOS/2M AND 850 MODIFIED AND UNMODIFIED FOR HIGHS GIVEN EXPECTED                 
PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDINESS.                                                   
MONDAY...LOOKS A BIT UNSETTLED WITH QPF FORECASTS GENERALLY LIGHT.              
WITHOUT A GOOD FEEL AND UPPER LOW OR REMNANTS IN THE VICINITY KEPT              
SOME SMALL POPS IN TACT. HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.                 
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)                                           
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. I DID LOOK THROUGH THE GRIDS AND                   
TWEAKED SKY AND DEWPOINT GRIDS A BIT HERE AND THERE TO BETTER                   
MATCH SURROUNDING OFFICES. UPPER PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED AND                  
COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH 500 TROUGH OR ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA               
THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.KS...NONE.                                                                     
.NE...NONE.                                                                     
.CO...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DDT                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
1120 AM EDT SAT APR 23 2005                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATING OVER WESTERN             
PENNSYLVANIA. WRAP AROUND LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST            
HALF OF THE CWA WITH TEMPERATURES STUCK IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST             
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ARE BLOWING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY. EXPECT                 
THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. UPDATE TO               
GRIDS AND ZONES OUT SHORTLY...MAINLY TO REFINE TEMPERATURES AND                 
ADJUST POPS SLIGHTLY.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
755 AM EDT SAT APR 23 2005                                                      
UPDATED TO ADD LAKE WIND ADVISORY TO THE FORECAST. WITH WINDS                   
ALREADY SUSTAINED NEAR 20 MPH...AND S/WV ENERGY AND BEST SFC                    
PRESSURE GRAD YET TO ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRENGTHENING                   
LOW...EXPECT CRITERIA TO BE MET. WILL EXPIRE AT 10 PM TONIGHT.                  
532 AM EDT SAT APR 23 2005                                                      
BIGGEST CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST THIS MORNING IS WITH COLD TEMPS              
AND SNOWFALL POTENTIAL. AS SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL OFF TO THE             
NORTHEAST...STIFF WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW AND UPPER LOW DIVING INTO             
AREA WILL MEAN SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY TODAY                 
UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS THE                
AREA...FAIRLY EFFICIENT UPSLOPE FLOW AND VORT LOBES ROTATING AROUND             
UPPER LOW WILL COMBINE TO KEEP POPS HIGH THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.                  
WITH BLACK MOUNTAIN TEMPS ALREADY NEAR 40 AS OF 5 AM THIS                       
MORNING...EXPECT THEM TO MIX WITH SNOW BY NOON...BUT MOST AREAS WILL            
HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO DO SO. OVERNIGHT...MOST ALL               
AREAS WILL SEE A GOOD CHANCE FOR A MIX...BEFORE ALL BUT ELEVATIONS              
ABOVE 2500 FEET TURN BACK TO ALL RAIN EARLY SUNDAY.                             
LOOKS AS THOUGH ETA12 IS RUNNING TOO HIGH WITH OVERALL QPF                      
AMOUNTS...AND WAY OFF WITH THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATOR. WENT MUCH                  
CLOSER TO GFS/HPC QPF SOLUTIONS. FEEL AS THOUGH GROUNDS WILL BE                 
WET/WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS AT BAY FOR THE                
MOST PART. BUT SAYING THAT...THERE WILL BE EXCEPTIONS AT ELEVATIONS             
ABOVE 2500 FEET...WHERE UP TO AN INCH LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET. DID/T              
FEEL AS THOUGH ADVISORY WAS WARRANTED AT THIS JUNCTURE...ALTHOUGH               
FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO FOCUS ON MOUNTAIN COUNTIES IN THE SE FOR             
FURTHER CHANGES. EITHER WAY...DID CONSIDER AN ADVISORY SIMPLY                   
BECAUSE THIS SNOW IS COMING AT SUCH A LATE TIME IN THE SEASON...BUT             
HELD OFF BECAUSE OF THE LOW AMOUNTS EXPECTED.                                   
MOS TEMPS FOR LOWS TONIGHT HAVE COME UP A DEGREE OR TWO...BUT                   
FROST/FREEZE CONSIDERATIONS WILL STILL NEED TO BE MADE WITH                     
AFTERNOON PACKAGE TODAY.                                                        
AS UPPER LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NE EARLY MONDAY...PC SKIES WILL RETURN            
BRIEFLY...ALLOWING US TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF QUICKLY RISING 850MB                 
TEMPS IN IT/S WAKE.                                                             
&&                                                                              
800 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2005                                                      
THERE HAVE BEEN MANY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL                   
KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHERN INDIANA. THE REPORTS INCLUDE A POSSIBLE                 
TORNADO NEAR LOUISVILLE...LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WIND. THE AREA              
IS UNDER A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.  THE               
LATEST RUC MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE MOST ACTIVE AREA WILL MOST               
LIKELY BE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA IN THE MONTGOMERY...BATH              
...ROWAN AND FLEMING COUNTIES. THIS IS WHERE THE GREATEST                       
INSTABILITY AND CAPE WILL BE. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.             
417 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2005                                                      
NEAR TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...                                     
SPC HAS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN A MODERATE RISK AND THE              
REST OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE              
PRIMARY THREATS. SOUNDINGS SHOW LI/S OF -7 AND CAPES AROUND 1500                
J/KG. CLOUDS ARE ALSO BEGINNING TO THIN OUT OVER MOST OF THE CWA.               
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POPPED UP OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF               
THE STATE AND SOUTHERN INDIANA AND WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA DURING             
THE EVENING HOURS. WENT CATEGORICAL FOR POPS TONIGHT ACROSS THE                 
BOARD.                                                                          
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE NEAR TERM ARE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF             
SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING AND THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING              
ACROSS EASTERN KY TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT TRICKY...WITH             
PLENTY OF CAA BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE             
DAY ON SATURDAY. WITH WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES...EXPECT ONLY LIGHT              
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 2500 FEET TOMORROW NIGHT. WRAP AROUND                  
PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO END ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS                
EAST. SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY            
NIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL                
BRING DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY.                                                 
EXTENDED (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                            
LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS ENSEMBLE FOR THE EXTENDED. MAIN CHANGES WERE             
TO LOWER TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES...AS THE PATTERN ALOFT SLOWLY               
TRANSITIONS FROM CYCLONIC TO ZONAL FLOW...AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES                
NORTHEAST. BUMPED UP POPS ON TUESDAY...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES              
THROUGH THE AREA. ENDED POPS ON WEDNESDAY...AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE             
PULLS EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF              
THE WORKWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY THROUGH THE END OF THE                   
WEEK...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA.                                   
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR                       
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120 THROUGH 10 PM               
TONIGHT.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GREIF                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
755 AM EDT SAT APR 23 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
UPDATED TO ADD LAKE WIND ADVISORY TO THE FORECAST. WITH WINDS                   
ALREADY SUSTAINED NEAR 20 MPH...AND S/WV ENERGY AND BEST SFC                    
PRESSURE GRAD YET TO ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRENGTHENING                   
LOW...EXPECT CRITERIA TO BE MET. WILL EXPIRE AT 10 PM TONIGHT.                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
532 AM EDT SAT APR 23 2005                                                      
BIGGEST CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST THIS MORNING IS WITH COLD TEMPS              
AND SNOWFALL POTENTIAL. AS SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL OFF TO THE             
NORTHEAST...STIFF WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW AND UPPER LOW DIVING INTO             
AREA WILL MEAN SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY TODAY                 
UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS THE                
AREA...FAIRLY EFFICIENT UPSLOPE FLOW AND VORT LOBES ROTATING AROUND             
UPPER LOW WILL COMBINE TO KEEP POPS HIGH THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.                  
WITH BLACK MOUNTAIN TEMPS ALREADY NEAR 40 AS OF 5 AM THIS                       
MORNING...EXPECT THEM TO MIX WITH SNOW BY NOON...BUT MOST AREAS WILL            
HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO DO SO. OVERNIGHT...MOST ALL               
AREAS WILL SEE A GOOD CHANCE FOR A MIX...BEFORE ALL BUT ELEVATIONS              
ABOVE 2500 FEET TURN BACK TO ALL RAIN EARLY SUNDAY.                             
LOOKS AS THOUGH ETA12 IS RUNNING TOO HIGH WITH OVERALL QPF                      
AMOUNTS...AND WAY OFF WITH THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATOR. WENT MUCH                  
CLOSER TO GFS/HPC QPF SOLUTIONS. FEEL AS THOUGH GROUNDS WILL BE                 
WET/WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS AT BAY FOR THE                
MOST PART. BUT SAYING THAT...THERE WILL BE EXCEPTIONS AT ELEVATIONS             
ABOVE 2500 FEET...WHERE UP TO AN INCH LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET. DID/T              
FEEL AS THOUGH ADVISORY WAS WARRANTED AT THIS JUNCTURE...ALTHOUGH               
FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO FOCUS ON MOUNTAIN COUNTIES IN THE SE FOR             
FURTHER CHANGES. EITHER WAY...DID CONSIDER AN ADVISORY SIMPLY                   
BECAUSE THIS SNOW IS COMING AT SUCH A LATE TIME IN THE SEASON...BUT             
HELD OFF BECAUSE OF THE LOW AMOUNTS EXPECTED.                                   
MOS TEMPS FOR LOWS TONIGHT HAVE COME UP A DEGREE OR TWO...BUT                   
FROST/FREEZE CONSIDERATIONS WILL STILL NEED TO BE MADE WITH                     
AFTERNOON PACKAGE TODAY.                                                        
AS UPPER LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NE EARLY MONDAY...PC SKIES WILL RETURN            
BRIEFLY...ALLOWING US TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF QUICKLY RISING 850MB                 
TEMPS IN IT/S WAKE.                                                             
&&                                                                              
800 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2005                                                      
THERE HAVE BEEN MANY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL                   
KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHERN INDIANA. THE REPORTS INCLUDE A POSSIBLE                 
TORNADO NEAR LOUISVILLE...LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WIND. THE AREA              
IS UNDER A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.  THE               
LATEST RUC MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE MOST ACTIVE AREA WILL MOST               
LIKELY BE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA IN THE MONTGOMERY...BATH              
...ROWAN AND FLEMING COUNTIES. THIS IS WHERE THE GREATEST                       
INSTABILITY AND CAPE WILL BE. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.             
417 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2005                                                      
NEAR TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...                                     
SPC HAS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN A MODERATE RISK AND THE              
REST OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE              
PRIMARY THREATS. SOUNDINGS SHOW LI/S OF -7 AND CAPES AROUND 1500                
J/KG. CLOUDS ARE ALSO BEGINNING TO THIN OUT OVER MOST OF THE CWA.               
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POPPED UP OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF               
THE STATE AND SOUTHERN INDIANA AND WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA DURING             
THE EVENING HOURS. WENT CATEGORICAL FOR POPS TONIGHT ACROSS THE                 
BOARD.                                                                          
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE NEAR TERM ARE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF             
SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING AND THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING              
ACROSS EASTERN KY TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT TRICKY...WITH             
PLENTY OF CAA BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE             
DAY ON SATURDAY. WITH WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES...EXPECT ONLY LIGHT              
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 2500 FEET TOMORROW NIGHT. WRAP AROUND                  
PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO END ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS                
EAST. SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY            
NIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL                
BRING DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY.                                                 
EXTENDED (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                            
LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS ENSEMBLE FOR THE EXTENDED. MAIN CHANGES WERE             
TO LOWER TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES...AS THE PATTERN ALOFT SLOWLY               
TRANSITIONS FROM CYCLONIC TO ZONAL FLOW...AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES                
NORTHEAST. BUMPED UP POPS ON TUESDAY...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES              
THROUGH THE AREA. ENDED POPS ON WEDNESDAY...AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE             
PULLS EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF              
THE WORKWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY THROUGH THE END OF THE                   
WEEK...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA.                                   
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR                       
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120 THROUGH 10 PM               
TONIGHT.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PIEPER                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1125 AM EDT SAT APR 23 2005                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON ARE CLOUDS/FLURRIES/TEMPS ALONG               
WITH -SN TRENDS EAST.                                                           
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED SEVERAL SHRTWVS IN BROAD                  
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A LOW LOCATED OVER N CNTRL WI. MAIN SHRTWV/VORT            
WAS LIFTING NE INTO WRN PA WHILE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE                         
LOW...ANOTHER WAS DIVING SSE INTO NRN MN. BACK EDGE OF DEEPER                   
CLOUDS/MOISTURE WAS MAINLY E OF KP53-KESC WHILE BKN WIND PARALLEL SC            
BANDS AIDED BY LAKE SUPERIOR MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF UPR              
MI WERE THINNING OUT. RADAR LOOP INDICATED DIMINISHING TREND WITH               
RETURNS OVER N CNTRL UPR MI.                                                    
EVEN THOUGH 14Z KSAW TAMDAR SNDG SHOWED INVERSION NEAR H8 WITH TEMPS            
AT -14C...DIURNAL TREND WITH SPRINGTIME SUN SHOULD CONTINUE TO                  
DISRUPT LAKE CLOUD/FLURRIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. MIXING SHOULD ALSO            
ENTRAIN SOME OF THE VERY DRY AIR ABV THE INVERSION. SO...MORE SUNNY             
BREAKS EXPECTED OVER THE WEST AND SOUTH WITH TEMPS CLIMBING TO NEAR             
40F. UPSLOPE AND FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH LAND HEATING WILL            
KEEP BKN-OVC GOING N CNTRL. LACK OF INSOLATION WILL LIMIT TEMP RISE             
WITH NO BETTER THAN LOWER 30S EXPECTED.                                         
WHILE -SN OVER THE EAST HAS ALSO DIMINISHED WITH KERY VSBY UP TO 7SM            
UP FROM 1-2SM AROUND 12Z-13Z...MENTION OF -SN MAINTAINED AS 285-290K            
ISENTROPIC LIFT PERSISTS. HOWEVER...NAM AND RUC KEEP BETTER MOISTURE            
TO THE EAST AND SE WHILE SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE AND SNOW AMOUNTS.                
SO...ONLY AREAS OF -SN OR FLURRIES MENTIONED WITH LITTLE OR NO                  
ACCUMULATION ON RELATIVELY WARM GROUND.                                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
    GALE WARNING EAST 2/3 OF LAKE SUPERIOR.                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JLB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1110 AM EDT SAT APR 23 2005                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE                  
INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AROUND THE DEVELOPING STORM IN NE                 
OH AND NW PA.  12Z RAOB FROM APX NOT THAT DRY...SO THERE IS                     
LESS OF A CHANCE FOR DRY AIR TO DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH.  AS A                 
RESULT I INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE AFTERNOON             
AT MOST LOCATIONS.  MAINLY SNOW IS ANTICIPATED...BUT SOME RAIN                  
IS POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  I DID                 
DROP THE WIND VALUES SOMEWHAT FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE                         
AFTERNOON...MAINLY DUE TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MUCH LOWER THAN                  
FORECAST.  AS FAR AS AFTERNOON ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL STILL THINKING            
BEST POTENTIAL NEAR JXN AND LAN...CLOSER TO THE LOW.  LOCALLY                   
AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE DOWN THERE.  ELSEWHERE...LESS THAN AN INCH              
IS EXPECTED.  RUC SHOWS SOME DECENT MID LEVEL FGEN GOING ON NEAR RQB            
THAT COULD BE LOCALLY ENHANCING THE SNOW THERE...THEY ARE DOWN TO               
3/4 MI AT THIS TIME.  THE RUC FORECASTS THE FGEN TO PULL WEST AND               
WEAKEN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SO THE DURATION OF THIS STEADIER SNOW             
IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST MORE THAN A COUPLE OF HOURS THERE.  WITH                
WAVES OF 15 FEET OUT A THE SOUTHERN LAKE BUOY...I MENTIONED SOME                
MINOR BEACH EROSION IN THE HWO.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE               
ENTIRE NEARSHORE.                                                               
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THIS EVENING TO SUN EVENING FROM LAKE COUNTY             
TO KALAMAZOO COUNTY EASTWARD (ALONG AND EAST OF US-131).                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MJS                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
931 AM EDT SAT APR 23 2005                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
THE WINTER STORM IS ALREADY UNDERWAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.                 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A VERY WELL DEFINED REGION OF MID LEVEL             
DEFORMATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A 992MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED            
OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA... WITH THE THREE HOUR PRESSURE CHANGE                
ANALYSIS INDICATING THAT IT WILL TAKE A NORTHERLY TRACK INTO EASTERN            
LAKE ERIE... MUCH IN LINE WITH THE GFS/UKMET SOLUTIONS. MOST OF THE             
AREA HAS SWITCHED OVER TO ALL SNOW... EXCEPT FROM THE EXTREME                   
EASTERN LOCATIONS FROM MONROE UP TO PORT HURON. BASED ON THE LATEST             
RUC THICKNESSES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS... WE SHOULD SEE THESE AREAS                
SWITCH OVER TO ALL SNOW BY AFTERNOON. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME REPORTS              
OF SNOW STICKING TO GRASSY AREAS IN LOCATIONS THAT HAVE SEEN SOME               
HEAVIER BURSTS OF SNOW.                                                         
BASED ON THE STRUCTURE OF THIS SYSTEM... MID LEVEL DEFORMATION WILL             
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO SUNDAY... WAVERING IN INTENSITY.               
SNOWFALL SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO ACCUMULATE ON THE GRASS AND TREES            
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... WITH ACCUMULATION BECOMING MORE EFFICIENT              
TONIGHT. WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING CLOSE TO 30 MPH. GUSTY WINDS WILL            
PERSIST FOR SOME TIME WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME TREES WEIGHTED WITH SNOW             
TO BREAK... ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH WHERE THERE ARE MORE LEAVES OUT.            
HAVE THEREFORE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE                  
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.                                                           
WILL RE EVALUATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS             
AFTERNOON WITH THE 12Z MODEL SUITE.                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION... ISSUED AT 720 AM.                                                  
ROUGH DAY/NIGHT AHEAD ACROSS THE AREA AS STRENGTHENING STORM TO                 
OUR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST BRINGS NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS AND AN               
EVER EXPANDING AREA OF RAIN/SNOW...GOING TO ALL SNOW DURING THE                 
MORNING. WORST OF THE CONDITIONS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS APPEAR ON TAP             
FOR LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING AS DEFORMATION ZONE BECOME MORE             
ORGANIZED WITH TIME AS STORM OVER SOUTHERN OHIO LIFTS TO ERIE AND               
BUFFALO VICINITY BY TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS TRENDING TO IFR THIS               
MORNING (LIFR WITH HEAVIER BURSTS OF SNOW/BLSN). WILL TENTATIVELY               
TREND BACK TO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS MODELS FORECAST A                  
RELATIVELY LULL IN THE STORM AS FIRST DEFORMATION FADES AND NEXT                
PULLS AGGRESSIVELY BACK WEST INTO THE AREA AS STORM SYSTEM WINDS                
ITSELF UP OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THIS SECOND WAVE COMES TOWARD THE              
END OF THIS FORECAST.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.STORM TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT.                   
WIDELY ANTICIPATED STORM IS COMING TOGETHER EARLY THIS MORNING WITH             
STRONG SURGE OF COLD AIR DROPPING THROUGH MICHIGAN AND STRENGTHEN               
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY HEADED TOWARD THE EASTERN            
GREAT LAKES...WHERE IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY...OR              
ACTUALLY PULL BACK TO THE WEST FROM NEAR BUFFALO BACK INTO SOUTHERN             
ONTARIO AS THE STORM WINDS UP.                                                  
TWO BIGGEST WILDCARDS THAT WILL IMPACT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE               
THE RATE OF SNOWFALL -VS- GROUND TEMPERATURE TODAY AS LARGE AREA OF             
DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIPITATION EXPANDS INTO THE AREA. AM GOING TO               
EDGE UP AMOUNTS JUST SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA FOR THE AFTN              
PERIOD GIVEN INTENSITY OF PRECIP FORECAST BY 00Z NAM/GFS...AND THE              
DEGREE OF COLD AIR NOW ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN (OF NOTE ARE              
DEWPOINTS AOB FREEZING WHICH WILL AID A GREAT DEAL IN HELPING THE               
LOWEST LEVELS COOL ENOUGH TO ALLOW SNOW TO ACCUMULATE. THIS "ROUND"             
OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY WINDS DOWN JUST A BIT FOR A WHILE             
TONIGHT...BUT AS STORM OCCLUDES...ADDITIONAL DEFORMATION/TROWAL                 
ROTATE BACK WEST INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.              
THROUGH THE PERIOD...NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS GOING TO THE NORTHWEST               
WILL BE RATHER STRONG...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE               
WHERE GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH WILL BE COMMON BY LATE TODAY & OVERNIGHT.              
FEEL IT IS NECESSARY TO UPGRADE A LARGE PORTION OF THE WATCH TO                 
A WARNING FROM LATE TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGING                 
IN THE OVERALL THINKING FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. WILL ISSUE A                   
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE THUMB REGION DOWN TO AROUND THE M 59               
CORRIDOR. AM VERY CONCERNED ABOUT LAKESHORE COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY               
HURON COUNTY...WHICH WILL TAKE THE BRUNT OF NORTH WINDS THROUGH                 
THE EVENT. GIVEN FORECAST PRECIPITATION CHANGEOVER AND INTENSITY                
TODAY...AS WELL AS WINDS FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO INTO SUNDAY...                
WHICH SHOULD GUST TO NEAR 50 MPH AT TIMES NEAR LAKE HURON...WILL                
ISSUE A BLIZZARD WARNING. WILL ALSO START THESE WARNINGS DURING                 
THE AFTERNOON -VS- EVENING AS EXPECT SNOWFALL INTENSITY TO BE                   
GREAT ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO START ACCUMULATING DURING THE AFTERNOON.               
WITH GREATER UNCERTAINTY FURTHER SOUTH...WILL MAINTAIN                          
THE WATCH...AND LET MORNING SHIFT MAKE THE FINAL CALL ON WARNING                
-VS- ADVISORY HERE. THIS AREA REMAINS DISPLACED FROM THE BEST                   
OVERALL UPLIFT...AND ALSO WILL BE SHADOW BY DOWNSLOPING NORTH                   
TO NORTHWEST WINDS WHICH WILL HELP KEEP PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS                   
DOWN SLIGHTLY. FACTOR IN MILD GROUND TEMPERATURES...AND HIGHS                   
IN THE MID/UPPER 30S TODAY...IT WILL BE TOUGH TO TOP 6 INCHES.                  
AM HAVING TROUBLE DECIDING WHAT TO DO IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT                 
OF CWA...WEST OF I 75/ NORTH OF I 69. HEAVY DEFORMATION ZONE                    
RAIN TO SNOW COULD REMAIN JUST EAST AREA. GUT FEELING IS THAT                   
CURRENT POSITION OF SURFACE TROUGHING...CURRENTLY ALIGNED THRU                  
IN PART OF CWA...WILL DENOTE THE WESTERN EDGE OF HEAVIER PRECIP.                
WILL LEAVE THE WATCH IN PLACE...AS WORST PART OF STORM MAY VERY                 
WELL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL HAVE TO                 
BE CLOSELY EVALUATED THIS MORNING AS DEFORMATION ZONE MATURES.                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT.                                              
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK...AS             
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LOW GYRATES AROUND THE NORTHERN GREAT                 
LAKES REGION.                                                                   
OUR UNUSUALLY STRONG LATE APRIL WINTER STORM WILL BE FILLING IN AND             
WEAKENING SUNDAY NIGHT. ALLOWED FOR AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF                
SNOW ACCUMULATION. SURFACE/500 MB LOWS TO DRIFT NORTH INTO ONTARIO              
ON MONDAY...WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO SOUTHERN LOWER            
MICHIGAN LATE IN THE DAY. WITH LITTLE OR NO SUN EXPECTED ON MONDAY              
AND THE EXPECTED SNOW COVER...LEFT THE MAX TEMPS IN THE 40S...WELL              
BELOW GUIDANCE.                                                                 
NEXT NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO DIVE SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA ON             
SUNDAY. SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS (00Z                   
CANADIAN/UKMET/GFS/EUROPEAN) ON HOW THIS SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE              
MAIN UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO. 00Z GFS DEVELOPING A CUTOFF LOW                    
OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE MONDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW             
SPINNING UP OVER THE MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. 00Z              
EUROPEAN MAINTAINS CENTER OF 500 MB LOW OVER ONTARIO...WITH AN OPEN             
BUT STRONG WAVE TRACKING FARTHER SOUTH...SIMILAR TO 00Z NAM.                    
MEANWHILE...00Z UKMET HAS 500 MB LOW CENTERED OVER LOWER MICHIGAN ON            
TUESDAY. REGARDLESS...ALL MODELS DO SHOW GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE                
STREAMING NORTHWARD TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SHOWERS. THERE             
ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON LIKELY POPS FOR NOW.              
CENTER OF 500 MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TO               
PROPAGATE WESTWARD ON WEDNESDAY...AS YET ANOTHER STRONG NORTHERN                
STREAM WAVE DIVES SOUTH. WITH A TREND TOWARD ZONAL FLOW OVER THE                
GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY (PER 00Z EUROPEAN)...LEFT THE CURRENT            
DRY FORECAST ALONE.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.MI...                                                                          
BLIZZARD WARNING...HURON COUNTY...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.                
WINTER STORM WARNING...THE REST OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...THIS AFTERNOON          
THROUGH SUNDAY.                                                                 
.LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.                              
.LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.                           
.MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DG/SF/SC                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY                                             
1040 AM EDT SAT APR 23 2005                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SURFACE LOW LOCATED NEAR ERIE PENNSYLVANIA AT 14Z WITH BEST 3 HOUR              
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THEREFORE...BELIEVE LOW WILL            
CONTINUE TO TRACK DUE NORTH IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GFS SOLUTION.                
VISIBLE LOOP SHOWING WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT WORKING NORTHWARD THROUGH            
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. GFS/RUC SUGGESTING THIS DRY SLOT WILL CONTINUE            
TO WORK NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PASSES            
OVER FAR WESTERN NEW YORK/EASTERN LAKE ERIE. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD             
GENERATE AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION WITHIN DRY SLOT AREA...                  
THEREFORE WILL NOT END PRECIPITATION THREAT ENTIRELY ACROSS THIS                
AREA. INSTABILITY LOOKS MARGINAL...BUT WITH SOME HEATING ATMOSPHERE             
MAY BE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY TO GENERATE ISOLATED                    
THUNDERSTORMS (MAINLY EAST OF ROCHESTER).                                       
&&                                                                              
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                           
TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF RAIN ARE SEEN ON AREA RADARS EARLY THIS                   
MORNING. THE FIRST BATCH OF STEADY RAIN OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN                
NEW YORK STATE IS ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATELY STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT             
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER             
PITTSBURGH. THIS PCPN WILL BE MAINLY EAST OF THE FINGER LAKES BY                
DAYBREAK. THE SECOND AREA OF STEADY RAIN OVER OHIO WILL SPREAD EAST             
INTO OUR CWA LATER THIS MORNING AND DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE LFQ             
OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET MAX MOVES NORTH INTO PA. A DRY SLOT THAT IS              
DEVELOPING ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO               
ADVECT INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ETA                
SUGGESTS THAT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY DEVELOPING WITHIN THIS            
DRY SLOT TO SET OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GENESEE             
VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON.                                   
TONIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL             
NEW YORK AND REACH LAKE ONTARIO BY 12Z SUNDAY. THE MODELS KEEP THE              
STEADIEST PCPN TO OUR WEST IN THE VICINITY OF THE DEFORMATION                   
ZONE...BUT WILL LEAVE IN LIKELY POPS DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE                
STACKED LOW. COLDER AIR ADVECTING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE               
LOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER                
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER LATE TONIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM                    
CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY...THE BOUNDARY LAYER              
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ENOUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON TO SUPPORT A                 
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS MOST OF THE FA WEST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE              
HIGHER ELEVATIONS SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL            
LIKELY SEE A CHANGEOVER TO MAINLY SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON. AN INCH            
OR SO ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.                   
THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL COOL ENOUGH            
TO SUPPORT SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS/NAM               
SUGGEST A POSSIBLE 1 TO 3 INCH ACCUMULATION OF SNOW ACROSS THE                  
SOUTHERN TIER SUNDAY NIGHT. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE ACCUMULATIONS               
WILL STAY UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA SINCE THE STEADIER PCPN IS                    
FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF NEW YORK STATE DURING THIS PERIOD.                   
MORNING SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY WILL CHANGE TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS            
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE IN THE WAKE              
OF THE DEPARTING LOW. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS             
850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING BY 12Z TUESDAY.                         
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                        
GIVEN MODEL UNCERTAINTIES AND RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES IN THE                 
EXTENDED RANGE...WE HAVE OPTED TO GENERALLY STAY CLOSE TO AN HPC/GFS            
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. THIS SCENARIO FAVORS LOW                   
PRESSURE SOUTH OF JAMES BAY SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST TO THE GULF OF                 
SAINT LAWRENCE DURING THE PERIOD...WHICH IS SLOWER AND A TOUCH                  
WARMER (AND DRIER IN THE LATER PERIODS) THAN THE 06Z OPERATIONAL                
GFS. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS EVERYWHERE FOR WED AS A            
RESULT...THEN GRADUALLY TAPER THESE OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY             
NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH THE REST OF THE PERIOD DRY. TEMPS DURING              
THE PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR              
LATE APRIL.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR PITTSBURGH THIS MORNING WILL PRODUCE            
A NORTHEAST FLOW OF MOIST AIR ACROSS OUR TAF SITES TODAY WITH                   
FREQUENT IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN AND FOG. AS AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES              
TO DIG OVER US THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE SURFACE LOW WILL GRADUALLY               
MOVE INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK BEFORE EDGING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS            
WILL KEEP POOR FLYING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE                  
WEEKEND.                                                                        
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE NORTHEAST TODAY OVER MOST            
SITES ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL BE LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE              
WITH THE LOW CENTER CLOSER. THE LIGHTER VARIABLE WINDS WILL MOVE                
FURTHER NORTH OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW CENTER.                      
&&                                                                              
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.NY...NONE.                                                                     
.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.                            
&&                                                                              
UPDATE...TMA                                                                    
SHORT TERM...TJP                                                                
LONG TERM...JJR                                                                 
AVIATION...SAGE                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
935 AM EDT SAT APR 23 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM...CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG THE COAST THIS MRNG ASCD WITH            
LEADING SHORT WAVE AHEAD OF SFC BOUNDARY THAT IS CROSSING THE STATE             
ATTM. MRNG SOUNDING INDICATES A RATHER UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILE WITH              
NEAR ISOTHERMAL LAYER FROM SFC TO AROUND 2KFT THEN BECOMING MORE                
UNSTABLE ALOFT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RATHER THICK MID/HI CLOUD               
BAND OVER THE RGN AND TO OUR WEST TO JUST WEST OF THE SFC BOUNDARY.             
WIND PROFILE WOULD HINT AT LINEAR TYPE STORMS IF ANY REDEVELOPMENT              
OCCURS TODAY. ONE LIMITING FACTOR LIKELY WILL BE CLOUDS. WE WILL                
NEED SOME BREAKS FOR SUFFICIENT HEATING TO INDUCE LOW LVL                       
INSTABILITY. DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE 60S AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY BUT             
FALL TO THE LOWER 50S BEHIND IT. THIS ALSO COULD LIMIT EXTENT OF                
CONVECTION TODAY. RUC DOES INDICATE AN IMPRESSIVE JET OVER THE RGN              
LATER TODAY WHICH COULD OFFSET LACK OF LOW LVL INSTABILITY. WITH                
THIS IN MIND HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK A BIT BUT WILL STILL LEAVE                  
LIKELY ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE BEST BREAKS SHOULD BE AND HIGH             
CHANCE EAST OF THERE WERE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY MORE.                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...DIAMOND BUOY SHOWING GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE ATTM AND                
THESE GUSTS SHOULD ONLY INCREASE IN FREQUENCY. MEANWHILE WINDS NEAR             
SHORE A BIT LOWER...BUT DO EXPECT SOME INCREASE TODAY. HAVE RAISED              
GALES AGAIN TO COVER THE FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS FROM LOOKOUT NORTH TO            
OREGON INLET THROUGH THE DAY. THESE SHOULD SUBSIDE WITH PASSAGE OF              
BOUNDARY BY EARLY EVNG AS CAA DOES NOT KICK IN UNTIL LATER TONIGHT.             
WILL NEED TO REVISIT EXTENDED GALES FOR MIDDLE LEG AT THAT TIME.                
SEAS ALREADY AROUND 10 FT AT DIAMOND BUOY. THESE COULD INCREASE A               
BIT MORE...ESPECIALLY NEAR TSTMS THIS MRNG AND LATER THIS AFTN AND              
EVNG.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...GALE WARNING AMZ152-154-156.                                           
      ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ130-135-150-158.                               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MLF                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO                                         
1153 AM EDT SAT APR 23 2005                                                     
.AVIATION(12Z-12Z)...                                                           
QUITE A CHALLENGING AVIATION FCST. 06Z NAM AND 09Z RUC NOW SHOW THE             
LOW TRACKING OVER YNG AND THEN STALLING THRU 00Z BEFORE THE MAIN                
ENERGY MOVES NE. WL CONTINUE WITH IFR CONDITIONS FROM CLE AND MFD               
AND WEST AS PLENTY OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL KEEP PCPN AROUND FOR            
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WL DELAY THE CHANGEOVER BY AN HOUR OR TWO AT CLE             
AND MFD WITH THE NEW RUNS BEING JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER. WINDS WILL                
ALSO BE A CONCERN OVER THE WESTERN SITES...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH                 
POSSIBLE. AM A LITTLE WORRIED ABOUT THE 50KT 925MB JET MIXING DOWN              
THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL LIKELY NOT              
ALLOW THIS TO HAPPEN. FOR THE EASTERN SITES...THINK THERE IS A                  
POSSIBILITY OF PCPN BCMG SHOWERY THIS AFTN WITH SOME DRYING NOTED ON            
RADAR PICTURES OVER WV. STILL...CIGS SHOULD REMAIN IFR EVEN THOUGH              
VSBYS MAY IMPROVE THIS AFTN. WILL KEEP ERI ALL RAIN FOR THIS                    
ISSUANCE...BUT WILL CHANGE YNG AND CAK OVER TO SNOW AROUND 06Z.                 
&&                                                                              
SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON)...                                                  
TRICKY FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM AS SOME LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY               
CHANGED OVER TO SNOW WHILE OTHER ARE HOLDING ONTO -RA WITH TEMPS IN             
THE MID 30S. OTHER AREAS ARE CURRENTLY MIXED RAIN AND SNOW. LOOKING             
FOR MOST LOCATIONS S AND W OF CLE TO MIX OR CHANGE TO SNOW DURING               
THE AFTERNOON WHILE AREAS EAST OF CLE TOWARDS YNG AND INTO NW PA                
HOLD ONTO MAINLY RAIN FOR THE AFTN PERIOD. TEMPS WILL REMAIN STEADY             
FOR SLOWLY DROP THRU THE AFTN FOR MAINLY ALL OF FORECAST AREA.                  
AS LOW MOVES NE OF CWA LATER THIS EVENING AND COLDER AIR CONT. TO               
BUILD OVER AREA EXPECTING MOST LOCATIONS TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW             
TONIGHT AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST.                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV. SHORT TERM(TODAY THRU SUN NGT)...                                        
GFS FINALLY IN AND IT AND NAM CONT TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT               
TDA.  STL..KIND OF A TOUGH FCST GIVEN THE SNOW POTENTIAL AND TIME OF            
YEAR.  MODELS ARE A TAD SLOWER BRINGING COLDER AIR IN THAN 12Z RUNS             
WERE.  WITH THAT IN MIND..ERN 2/3 OF FA SHOULD RMN JUST RA TDA GIVEN            
LLVL THICKNESS PROGS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.  ONLY NW OH SHOULD SEE               
ANY SNOWFALL BY SUNSET AND DON/T EXPCT MUCH IF ANY ACCUM.  4 INCH               
SOIL TEMPS AT FREMONT AND WOOSTER ARE 53 AND 55 DEGS RESPECTIVELY               
THIS AM.  WL LIKELY TAKE QUITE A SNOW BURST TO GET ANY ACCUM GOING.             
WL PROB GET TO A POINT WHERE ACCUM STOPS AS WARM GROUND WL MELT FM              
BLO AS FAST AS NEW ACCUM OCCURS.  SYNOPTIC MOIST RATHER ABUNDANT TDA            
AND TGNT BUT BEST VVEL BLO SNOW GROWTH ZN.  ALSO WL HV QUITE A BIT              
OF DIR SHEAR WITH LLVL THICKNESS ACTUALLY INCREASING SUN AFT.  STL              
ENUF LAKE ENHANCEMENT FOR A POTENTIAL DECENT SNOW.  GIVEN                       
UNCERTAINITY AND TIME OF YEAR WL KEEP WATCH GOING FOR NRN OH.  HV               
COORD THIS WITH DTX AND IWX.  WL BACK TIMING OF WATCH UP SLIGHTLY.              
F.Y.I...LATEST 1 INCH SNOW EVER AT KERI OCCURED ON APRIL 24TH.  AS              
FAR AS ACCUMS GO...MOST OF THIS SHOULD OCCUR TGNT AND COULD GET                 
SEVERAL INCHES ESP ON HIGHER TERRAIN S OF LERI.  WL PROB BE PRETTY              
TOUGH TO GET SIG ACCUM ON SUN BUT CERTAINLY AN INCH OR THREE IS PSBL            
ON HIGHER TERRAIN.  SHSN LIKELY SUN NGT BUT AGN WOULD NOT EXPCT MUCH            
MORE ACCUM.  WAA RETURNS FOR BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPS                   
GETTING INTO THE 50S MON WRN AREAS.                                             
ATTM SFC TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ALL AREAS.  HIGHS TDA WL LIKELY            
OCCUR THIS AM WITH TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE 30S THIS AFT.  THINK THIS             
WL BE A VERY GRADUAL PROCESS GIVEN DWPTS.  TEMPS WL THEN RMN IN THE             
30S THRU MON AM.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (MON-FRI)...                                                         
AN UNSETTLED WEEK IS EXPECTED WITH PERIODS OF PCPN WITH A WARMING               
TREND AS THE DEEP CUTOFF POLAR VORTEX GRADUALLY FILLS AND LIFTS                 
NORTH AWAY FROM THE REGION. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES ACROSS THE               
REGION DURING MIDWEEK WITH ZONAL FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMING ESTABLISHED            
BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO RETURN.           
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE WEEK.                        
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR HEAVY SNOW FROM CLE CAK WEST TO TOL AND            
FDY SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY                                                
.PA...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...ABE                                                                
PREV. SHORT TERM...KUBINA                                                       
LONG TERM...LAPLANTE                                                            
AVIATION...MRD                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
857 AM EDT SAT APR 23 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
850MB COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING...WITH DRIER AIR SPREADING                  
INTO MIDLANDS. WILL DROP POPS AND LOWER TEMPS PIEDMONT AND NORTH                
MIDLANDS SLIGHTLY. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. VAD WIND                
PROFILE AND BUFKIT DATA SUGGEST GUSTS TO 30 MPH.                                
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 304 AM EDT SAT APR 23 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...                                      
BIGGEST QUESTION IN THE SHORT TERM IS HOW MUCH POP TO CARRYOVER ON              
SATURDAY MORNING. AT 2 AM...SFC FRONT APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE MOUNTAINS         
AND RUC PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL SC BETWEEN 12 AND 15 ZULU.             
LITTLE PRECIP IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT EXCEPT FOR WEAK            
TSTRM NOW MOVING THROUGH GSP CWA. 00Z FFC SOUNDING AND NAM FORECAST             
SOUNDINGS OVER CENTRAL SC INDICATE ONLY SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL           
SC AFTER 12Z. HENCE I AM INCLINED TO STICK WITH MET POPS IN SLIGHT              
CHC CATEGORY FOR WIDELY SCATTERD BRIEF LIGHT SHWRS. MAV POP JUST CAME           
IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CHANGE MY ORIGINAL LINE OF THOUGHT.        
NAM INDICATES THAT SURFACE WINDS WILLL BE FROM THE WSW WITH                     
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND               
GUSTS TO 30 MPH. WILL GO WITH LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL CWA.                   
WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE AFTER 00Z BUT PICK UP AGAIN WITH SIMILAR                   
SPEEDS ON SUNDAY. MAV AND MET TEMPS ARE SIMILAR AND WILL GO WITH A              
BLEND.                                                                          
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                           
FROM AROUND 18 Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...THE GFS MOVES A SERIES           
OF SHORTWAVES OVER THE AREA. WILL KEEP IN CHANCE POPS FOR THIS                  
EPISODE. AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OE SOUTHEAST             
WHICH WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NOT            
PLANNING ON MAKING ANY CHANGES TO AFTERNOON PACKAGE AT THIS TIME FOR            
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.                                                            
AVIATION...                                                                     
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY PART OF SATURDAY.               
WINDS WILL PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONT TO 20 TO 30 KTS WITH HIGHER                 
GUSTS. SCT TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CUMULUS AROUND 2 TO 4 THOUSAND                
FEET WILL CLEAR OUT DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER                   
SUNSET TO AROUND 10 KTS.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY TODAY ALL CWA.                                          
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY TODAY ALL CWA.                                          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AWP                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
403 PM EDT SAT APR 23 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
NEAR TERM (TONIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT)...                                             
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM...AS THE 5H LOW               
SLOWLY PULLS TO THE NORTHEAST...AND THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL              
ON MONDAY.                                                                      
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE FOR LOWS AND POPS TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES            
SHOULD BRIEFLY FALL BELOW THE FREEZING MARK OVER MOST OF THE AREA               
TONIGHT...HOWEVER WITH THE WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES FEEL FREEZE                 
WARNING IS NOT WARRANTED AND WILL ISSUE AND SPS TO HANDLE THE                   
SITUATION. A RECORD LOW IS PROBABLE AT JKL. CURRENT RECORD LOW FOR              
JKL IS 35. UPPER LOW WILL KEEP WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC                
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. 1000-850 THICKNESS VALUES              
ARE WELL BELOW 1305 AND TONIGHT AND 850 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND                    
-6C...SO WILL STAY WITH THE SAME WORDING FOR SNOW. SNOW WILL MIX IN             
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE               
AREA TONIGHT. WITH WARM GROUND READINGS...LITTLE IF ANY OF THE SNOW             
WILL STICK. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500 FEET COULD SEE AN INCH WITH                   
UPSLOPE FLOW AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS                
WILL TAPER OFF ON SUNDAY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.                         
WILL KEEP LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 10 PM TONIGHT...WITH WINDS                 
REMAINING BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH. WINDS WILL BE NEAR LAKE WIND                   
ADVISORY CRITERIA AGAIN TOMORROW. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE EARLY                      
MONDAY...WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS OVER THE AREA. HIGH                 
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY...BRINGING DRY AND                 
WARMER CONDITIONS.                                                              
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY. THICK CLOUD            
COVER AND LINGERING SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S            
FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SOME ON               
MONDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS EAST AND SUNSHINE RETURNS TO THE                
AREA. FOR THE GRIDS...GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO THE MET MOS NUMBERS.            
EXTENDED (TUESDAY-SATURDAY)...                                                  
ALOFT...A 5H TROF PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND FLOW                 
ALOFT WILL TRANSITION BACK TO A ZONAL FLOW ON THURSDAY. AT THE                  
SURFACE... HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE EAST...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES             
OUT THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY                 
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TEMPORARILY RETURN AND BRING DRY                      
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOST OF THURSDAY...BEFORE            
A WEAK FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND STALLS               
SOUTH OF THE AREA...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY.             
TEMPERATURES WERE IN GOOD SHAPE AND SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW                
NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
1120 AM EDT SAT APR 23 2005                                                     
14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATING OVER WESTERN             
PENNSYLVANIA. WRAP AROUND LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST            
HALF OF THE CWA WITH TEMPERATURES STUCK IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST             
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ARE BLOWING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY. EXPECT                 
THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. UPDATE TO               
GRIDS AND ZONES OUT SHORTLY...MAINLY TO REFINE TEMPERATURES AND                 
ADJUST POPS SLIGHTLY.                                                           
755 AM EDT SAT APR 23 2005                                                      
UPDATED TO ADD LAKE WIND ADVISORY TO THE FORECAST. WITH WINDS                   
ALREADY SUSTAINED NEAR 20 MPH...AND S/WV ENERGY AND BEST SFC                    
PRESSURE GRAD YET TO ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRENGTHENING                   
LOW...EXPECT CRITERIA TO BE MET. WILL EXPIRE AT 10 PM TONIGHT.                  
532 AM EDT SAT APR 23 2005                                                      
BIGGEST CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST THIS MORNING IS WITH COLD TEMPS              
AND SNOWFALL POTENTIAL. AS SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL OFF TO THE             
NORTHEAST...STIFF WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW AND UPPER LOW DIVING INTO             
AREA WILL MEAN SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY TODAY                 
UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS THE                
AREA...FAIRLY EFFICIENT UPSLOPE FLOW AND VORT LOBES ROTATING AROUND             
UPPER LOW WILL COMBINE TO KEEP POPS HIGH THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.                  
WITH BLACK MOUNTAIN TEMPS ALREADY NEAR 40 AS OF 5 AM THIS                       
MORNING...EXPECT THEM TO MIX WITH SNOW BY NOON...BUT MOST AREAS WILL            
HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO DO SO. OVERNIGHT...MOST ALL               
AREAS WILL SEE A GOOD CHANCE FOR A MIX...BEFORE ALL BUT ELEVATIONS              
ABOVE 2500 FEET TURN BACK TO ALL RAIN EARLY SUNDAY.                             
LOOKS AS THOUGH ETA12 IS RUNNING TOO HIGH WITH OVERALL QPF                      
AMOUNTS...AND WAY OFF WITH THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATOR. WENT MUCH                  
CLOSER TO GFS/HPC QPF SOLUTIONS. FEEL AS THOUGH GROUNDS WILL BE                 
WET/WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS AT BAY FOR THE                
MOST PART. BUT SAYING THAT...THERE WILL BE EXCEPTIONS AT ELEVATIONS             
ABOVE 2500 FEET...WHERE UP TO AN INCH LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET. DID/T              
FEEL AS THOUGH ADVISORY WAS WARRANTED AT THIS JUNCTURE...ALTHOUGH               
FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO FOCUS ON MOUNTAIN COUNTIES IN THE SE FOR             
FURTHER CHANGES. EITHER WAY...DID CONSIDER AN ADVISORY SIMPLY                   
BECAUSE THIS SNOW IS COMING AT SUCH A LATE TIME IN THE SEASON...BUT             
HELD OFF BECAUSE OF THE LOW AMOUNTS EXPECTED.                                   
MOS TEMPS FOR LOWS TONIGHT HAVE COME UP A DEGREE OR TWO...BUT                   
FROST/FREEZE CONSIDERATIONS WILL STILL NEED TO BE MADE WITH                     
AFTERNOON PACKAGE TODAY.                                                        
AS UPPER LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NE EARLY MONDAY...PC SKIES WILL RETURN            
BRIEFLY...ALLOWING US TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF QUICKLY RISING 850MB                 
TEMPS IN IT/S WAKE.                                                             
&&                                                                              
800 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2005                                                      
THERE HAVE BEEN MANY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL                   
KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHERN INDIANA. THE REPORTS INCLUDE A POSSIBLE                 
TORNADO NEAR LOUISVILLE...LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WIND. THE AREA              
IS UNDER A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.  THE               
LATEST RUC MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE MOST ACTIVE AREA WILL MOST               
LIKELY BE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA IN THE MONTGOMERY...BATH              
...ROWAN AND FLEMING COUNTIES. THIS IS WHERE THE GREATEST                       
INSTABILITY AND CAPE WILL BE. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.             
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR                       
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120 THROUGH 10 PM               
TONIGHT.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JM                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
130 PM EDT SAT APR 23 2005                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW WILL PERSIST OVER ALL OF                  
SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE                
REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW MIGRATING            
SLOWLY WESTWARD...AND SHOULD AFFECT DTW/DET FROM 18-00Z...AND                   
MBS/FNT FROM 22-03Z...WITH VSBYS LOWERING TO LESS THAN ONE MILE AT              
TIMES. A SECOND BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE                  
REGION BETWEEN 04-10Z...MAINLY NORTH OF DTW/DET. A BRIEF PERIOD OF              
MVRF IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING...13Z-16Z...AFTER THIS SECOND BAND              
ROTATES THROUGH. YET ANOTHER WAVE OF HEAVIER SNOW IS EXPECTED AFTER             
16Z. STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE                  
PERIOD WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF            
FNT.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...ISSUED AT 931 AM                                                      
THE WINTER STORM IS ALREADY UNDERWAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.                 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A VERY WELL DEFINED REGION OF MID LEVEL             
DEFORMATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A 992MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED            
OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA... WITH THE THREE HOUR PRESSURE CHANGE                
ANALYSIS INDICATING THAT IT WILL TAKE A NORTHERLY TRACK INTO EASTERN            
LAKE ERIE... MUCH IN LINE WITH THE GFS/UKMET SOLUTIONS. MOST OF THE             
AREA HAS SWITCHED OVER TO ALL SNOW... EXCEPT FROM THE EXTREME                   
EASTERN LOCATIONS FROM MONROE UP TO PORT HURON. BASED ON THE LATEST             
RUC THICKNESSES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS... WE SHOULD SEE THESE AREAS                
SWITCH OVER TO ALL SNOW BY AFTERNOON. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME REPORTS              
OF SNOW STICKING TO GRASSY AREAS IN LOCATIONS THAT HAVE SEEN SOME               
HEAVIER BURSTS OF SNOW.                                                         
BASED ON THE STRUCTURE OF THIS SYSTEM... MID LEVEL DEFORMATION WILL             
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO SUNDAY... WAVERING IN INTENSITY.               
SNOWFALL SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO ACCUMULATE ON THE GRASS AND TREES            
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... WITH ACCUMULATION BECOMING MORE EFFICIENT              
TONIGHT. WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING CLOSE TO 30 MPH. GUSTY WINDS WILL            
PERSIST FOR SOME TIME WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME TREES WEIGHTED WITH SNOW             
TO BREAK... ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH WHERE THERE ARE MORE LEAVES OUT.            
HAVE THEREFORE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE                  
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.                                                           
WILL RE EVALUATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS             
AFTERNOON WITH THE 12Z MODEL SUITE.                                             
&&                                                                              
.STORM TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT.                   
WIDELY ANTICIPATED STORM IS COMING TOGETHER EARLY THIS MORNING WITH             
STRONG SURGE OF COLD AIR DROPPING THROUGH MICHIGAN AND STRENGTHEN               
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY HEADED TOWARD THE EASTERN            
GREAT LAKES...WHERE IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY...OR              
ACTUALLY PULL BACK TO THE WEST FROM NEAR BUFFALO BACK INTO SOUTHERN             
ONTARIO AS THE STORM WINDS UP.                                                  
TWO BIGGEST WILDCARDS THAT WILL IMPACT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE               
THE RATE OF SNOWFALL -VS- GROUND TEMPERATURE TODAY AS LARGE AREA OF             
DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIPITATION EXPANDS INTO THE AREA. AM GOING TO               
EDGE UP AMOUNTS JUST SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA FOR THE AFTN              
PERIOD GIVEN INTENSITY OF PRECIP FORECAST BY 00Z NAM/GFS...AND THE              
DEGREE OF COLD AIR NOW ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN (OF NOTE ARE              
DEWPOINTS AOB FREEZING WHICH WILL AID A GREAT DEAL IN HELPING THE               
LOWEST LEVELS COOL ENOUGH TO ALLOW SNOW TO ACCUMULATE. THIS "ROUND"             
OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY WINDS DOWN JUST A BIT FOR A WHILE             
TONIGHT...BUT AS STORM OCCLUDES...ADDITIONAL DEFORMATION/TROWAL                 
ROTATE BACK WEST INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.              
THROUGH THE PERIOD...NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS GOING TO THE NORTHWEST               
WILL BE RATHER STRONG...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE               
WHERE GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH WILL BE COMMON BY LATE TODAY & OVERNIGHT.              
FEEL IT IS NECESSARY TO UPGRADE A LARGE PORTION OF THE WATCH TO                 
A WARNING FROM LATE TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGING                 
IN THE OVERALL THINKING FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. WILL ISSUE A                   
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE THUMB REGION DOWN TO AROUND THE M 59               
CORRIDOR. AM VERY CONCERNED ABOUT LAKESHORE COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY               
HURON COUNTY...WHICH WILL TAKE THE BRUNT OF NORTH WINDS THROUGH                 
THE EVENT. GIVEN FORECAST PRECIPITATION CHANGEOVER AND INTENSITY                
TODAY...AS WELL AS WINDS FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO INTO SUNDAY...                
WHICH SHOULD GUST TO NEAR 50 MPH AT TIMES NEAR LAKE HURON...WILL                
ISSUE A BLIZZARD WARNING. WILL ALSO START THESE WARNINGS DURING                 
THE AFTERNOON -VS- EVENING AS EXPECT SNOWFALL INTENSITY TO BE                   
GREAT ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO START ACCUMULATING DURING THE AFTERNOON.               
WITH GREATER UNCERTAINTY FURTHER SOUTH...WILL MAINTAIN                          
THE WATCH...AND LET MORNING SHIFT MAKE THE FINAL CALL ON WARNING                
-VS- ADVISORY HERE. THIS AREA REMAINS DISPLACED FROM THE BEST                   
OVERALL UPLIFT...AND ALSO WILL BE SHADOW BY DOWNSLOPING NORTH                   
TO NORTHWEST WINDS WHICH WILL HELP KEEP PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS                   
DOWN SLIGHTLY. FACTOR IN MILD GROUND TEMPERATURES...AND HIGHS                   
IN THE MID/UPPER 30S TODAY...IT WILL BE TOUGH TO TOP 6 INCHES.                  
AM HAVING TROUBLE DECIDING WHAT TO DO IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT                 
OF CWA...WEST OF I 75/ NORTH OF I 69. HEAVY DEFORMATION ZONE                    
RAIN TO SNOW COULD REMAIN JUST EAST AREA. GUT FEELING IS THAT                   
CURRENT POSITION OF SURFACE TROUGHING...CURRENTLY ALIGNED THRU                  
IN PART OF CWA...WILL DENOTE THE WESTERN EDGE OF HEAVIER PRECIP.                
WILL LEAVE THE WATCH IN PLACE...AS WORST PART OF STORM MAY VERY                 
WELL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL HAVE TO                 
BE CLOSELY EVALUATED THIS MORNING AS DEFORMATION ZONE MATURES.                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT.                                              
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK...AS             
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LOW GYRATES AROUND THE NORTHERN GREAT                 
LAKES REGION.                                                                   
OUR UNUSUALLY STRONG LATE APRIL WINTER STORM WILL BE FILLING IN AND             
WEAKENING SUNDAY NIGHT. ALLOWED FOR AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF                
SNOW ACCUMULATION. SURFACE/500 MB LOWS TO DRIFT NORTH INTO ONTARIO              
ON MONDAY...WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO SOUTHERN LOWER            
MICHIGAN LATE IN THE DAY. WITH LITTLE OR NO SUN EXPECTED ON MONDAY              
AND THE EXPECTED SNOW COVER...LEFT THE MAX TEMPS IN THE 40S...WELL              
BELOW GUIDANCE.                                                                 
NEXT NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO DIVE SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA ON             
SUNDAY. SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS (00Z                   
CANADIAN/UKMET/GFS/EUROPEAN) ON HOW THIS SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE              
MAIN UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO. 00Z GFS DEVELOPING A CUTOFF LOW                    
OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE MONDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW             
SPINNING UP OVER THE MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. 00Z              
EUROPEAN MAINTAINS CENTER OF 500 MB LOW OVER ONTARIO...WITH AN OPEN             
BUT STRONG WAVE TRACKING FARTHER SOUTH...SIMILAR TO 00Z NAM.                    
MEANWHILE...00Z UKMET HAS 500 MB LOW CENTERED OVER LOWER MICHIGAN ON            
TUESDAY. REGARDLESS...ALL MODELS DO SHOW GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE                
STREAMING NORTHWARD TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SHOWERS. THERE             
ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON LIKELY POPS FOR NOW.              
CENTER OF 500 MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TO               
PROPAGATE WESTWARD ON WEDNESDAY...AS YET ANOTHER STRONG NORTHERN                
STREAM WAVE DIVES SOUTH. WITH A TREND TOWARD ZONAL FLOW OVER THE                
GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY (PER 00Z EUROPEAN)...LEFT THE CURRENT            
DRY FORECAST ALONE.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.MI...                                                                          
BLIZZARD WARNING...HURON COUNTY...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.                
WINTER STORM WARNING...THE REST OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...THIS AFTERNOON          
THROUGH SUNDAY.                                                                 
.LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.                              
.LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.                           
.MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DG/SF/SC                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
335 PM EDT SAT APR 23 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...                                   
UPPER LOW IS DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH ILN CWA AS ADVERTISED BY MODELS             
ALL WEEK. LOW IS NOT AS DEEP AS EARLIER MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED, BUT IT            
WAS STILL COLD ENOUGH TO SNOW THIS MORNING.                                     
SURFACE MAP HAS LOW APPROACHING KBUF.  LONG FETCH OF LOW LEVEL FLOW             
FROM CENTRAL CANADA IS GIVING AN UNSEASONABLY COLD BACKLASH TO THE              
OHIO VALLEY. PERSISTENT MOISTURE FALLING AS RAIN THIS AFTERNOON WILL            
CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT AFTER THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING COINCIDES              
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR. 1000-850 THICKNESS                 
INDICATES ALL SNOW TONIGHT, CHANGING BACK TO RAIN BY SUNDAY                     
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
ONGOING EVENT REQUIRES CONTINUATION OF 100 POPS. LATEST QPF STILL               
WARRANTS SNOW ADVISORY. NAM SHOWS FASTER DRYING SUNDAY, BUT QPF                 
APPEARS UNDERDONE, ESPECIALLY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LAKE                      
ENHANCEMENT. LATER SHIFTS CAN DROP ADVISORY EARLY IF NAM VERIFIES.              
FREEZE WARNING ALSO REMAINS NECESSARY FOR WHAT HAD BEEN AN EARLY                
GROWING SEASON. EXPECT QUICK IMPROVEMENT ON MONDAY IN DECREASING SKY            
COVER AND WARM ADVECTION SURFACE AND ALOFT.                                     
TEMP FORECAST CONTAINS FEW CHANGES WITH CURRENT GUIDANCE SIMILAR TO             
PREVIOUS FORECAST.                                                              
CONIGLIO                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                        
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD. MODEL ARE              
GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH OVERALL SOLN BUT TIMING OF FEATURES WL BE                
DIFFICULT. THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...MAIN FEATURES ARE WESTERN RDG             
AND MEAN LOW OVER THE NRN GRTLKS. A SERIES OF SPOKES ROTATE AROUND              
THE GRTLKS LOW KEEPING TEMPS BLO NORMAL AND AN ACTIVE THREAT FOR                
RAIN. BY NEXT WEEKEND THE FLO IS EXPECTED TO BACK WITH SRN STREAM               
S/W PROVIDING A THREAT FOR RAIN DURG THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.            
LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ON TUE S/W ENERGY TO ROTATE AROUND UPPER               
LOW FROM UPPER MS VLY INTO THE GRTLKS. EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN             
PRECIP CHC/S WITH SFC CDFNT PASSAGE LATE TUE/ERLY WED TIME FRAME.               
SFC HI PRES BRIEFLY BLDS IN PROVIDING DRY WX PERIOD WED AFTN/WED                
NIGHT. THEN FRONT TO SLIP S THRU THE REGION AND THUS HAVE THE MENT              
OF CHC SHOWERS THU INTO FRI TIME FRAME. WITH FRONT S OF OH RIVER                
HAVE INDICATED A DRY PERIOD OVERNIGHT FRI INTO SAT AND THEN SPREAD              
PRECIP BACK IN FROM THE SW SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.                                  
TEMPS WISE...HAVE LOWERED FCST TEMPS AND GENERALLY WENT A LTL WARMER            
AT NIGHT AND A LTL COOLER DURG DAYTIME VERSUS MEX GUID VALUES.                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...                                                          
WEATHER WILL REMAIN LESS THAN IDEAL FOR TAF FCST PERIOD.  DEEP UPR              
LO CONTINUES TO SPIN ACRS REGION AS STRONG SFC LO PULLS NORTH AND               
EAST ACRS WESTERN PA.  STRONG NRLY FLO ACRS FCST AREA PULLING                   
ABUNDANT MOISTURE DOWN INTO REGION.  MID LVL DEFORMATION AXIS HAS               
PULLE EASTOF CMH METRO...AND PCPN NOW MAINLY FALLING AS -RA AT TAF              
SITES.  RUC/ETA12 INDCG CRIT THICKNESSES WILL DROP LOW ENUF TO                  
SUPPORT SNOW BY ERLY EVNG AT NRN TAF SITES (KDAY/KCMH/KLCK)...AND               
BY 02/03Z IN CVG AREA.  GFS MORE GENEROUS THAN NAM WITH PCPN                    
TONIGHT...BUT BOTH MODELS INDCG SATURATED BNDRY LYR...LO LVL                    
CONV OVERNIGHT AND ANOTHER MID LVL DEFORMATION AXIS SWINGING ACRS               
FCST AREA.  HAVE INDCG MVFR VSBYS AND IFR CIGS WITH SNOW                        
OVERNIGHT.  HIT VSBYS A LITTLE HARDER AT KCMH AND KLCK WHERE                    
MOISTURE FETCH WILL BE DEEPER AND SITES ARE CLOSER TO CORE OF UPR               
LO.  SHOULD SEE A LITTLE IMPROVEMENT SUN MRNG AS UPR LO CONTINUES               
TO PULL FURTHER AWAY TO NE.  LINGERED RA/SN MIX AT KCMH/KLCK THRU               
END OF TAF FCST...BUT ENDING PCPN AT OTHER FOUR TAF SITES BY MID                
MRNG SUN.  CIGS WILL CLIMB ABV 1000 FT...AND MAY EVEN GET ABV 2000              
FT IN CVG METRO AFT 12Z.  WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF W/NW THRU              
FCST PERIOD.  EXPECTING SUSTAINED WINDS 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS APPCH              
30 KTS.                                                                         
RYAN                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...SNOW ADVISORY FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-                  
     070>074-077>082-088 FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 2 PM SUNDAY.                     
  ...FREEZE WARNING FOR OHZ042-051>055-060>065-070>074-077>082-088              
     FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO 10 AM SUNDAY.                                          
KY...FREEZE WARNING FOR KYZ089>100 FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO 10 AM SUNDAY.            
  ...SNOW ADVISORY FOR KYZ089>100 FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 2 PM SUNDAY.            
IN...FREEZE WARNING FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080 FROM 3 AM                
     SUNDAY TO 10 AM SUNDAY.                                                    
  ...SNOW ADVISORY FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080 FROM 6 PM                 
     SATURDAY TO 2 PM SUNDAY.                                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...18Z AVIATION UPDATE                                  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
151 PM EDT SAT APR 23 2005                                                      
.AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...                                                          
WEATHER WILL REMAIN LESS THAN IDEAL FOR TAF FCST PERIOD.  DEEP UPR              
LO CONTINUES TO SPIN ACRS REGION AS STRONG SFC LO PULLS NORTH AND               
EAST ACRS WESTERN PA.  STRONG NRLY FLO ACRS FCST AREA PULLING                   
ABUNDANT MOISTURE DOWN INTO REGION.  MID LVL DEFORMATION AXIS HAS               
PULLE EASTOF CMH METRO...AND PCPN NOW MAINLY FALLING AS -RA AT TAF              
SITES.  RUC/ETA12 INDCG CRIT THICKNESSES WILL DROP LOW ENUF TO                  
SUPPORT SNOW BY ERLY EVNG AT NRN TAF SITES (KDAY/KCMH/KLCK)...AND               
BY 02/03Z IN CVG AREA.  GFS MORE GENEROUS THAN NAM WITH PCPN                    
TONIGHT...BUT BOTH MODELS INDCG SATURATED BNDRY LYR...LO LVL                    
CONV OVERNIGHT AND ANOTHER MID LVL DEFORMATION AXIS SWINGING ACRS               
FCST AREA.  HAVE INDCG MVFR VSBYS AND IFR CIGS WITH SNOW                        
OVERNIGHT.  HIT VSBYS A LITTLE HARDER AT KCMH AND KLCK WHERE                    
MOISTURE FETCH WILL BE DEEPER AND SITES ARE CLOSER TO CORE OF UPR               
LO.  SHOULD SEE A LITTLE IMPROVEMENT SUN MRNG AS UPR LO CONTINUES               
TO PULL FURTHER AWAY TO NE.  LINGERED RA/SN MIX AT KCMH/KLCK THRU               
END OF TAF FCST...BUT ENDING PCPN AT OTHER FOUR TAF SITES BY MID                
MRNG SUN.  CIGS WILL CLIMB ABV 1000 FT...AND MAY EVEN GET ABV 2000              
FT IN CVG METRO AFT 12Z.  WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF W/NW THRU              
FCST PERIOD.  EXPECTING SUSTAINED WINDS 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS APPCH              
30 KTS.                                                                         
RYAN                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 1225 PM EDT SAT APR 23 2005)                                            
SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON)...                                                  
DEEP SFC LO ACRS WESTERN PA WITH STRONG NRLY FLO IN ITS WAKE.                   
AREA OF ENHANCED -SN NOW ACRS CNTRL OH...TRAILING SFC LO IN AREA                
OF MID LVL DEFORMATION.  STRONG EVAP COOLING IS ALSO                            
CONTRIBUTING...AS TEMPS HAVE TUMBLED SVRL DEGREES INTO M30S ACRS                
CMH METRO.  SNOW ACRS DAY METRO AND ILN AREAS HAVE SWITCHED BACK                
TO RAIN.                                                                        
MINOR UPDATE TO CLEAN UP WORDING FOR AFTN HOURS.  WHILE BNDRY LYR               
THICKNESSES STAY AT OR ABV 1300 M FOR GOOD PART OF AFTN...HAVE                  
CHOSEN TO GO WITH RA/SN MIX ALL BUT FAR SRN FCST AREA FOR AFTN                  
HOURS.  RAIN SHOULD BE PREDOMINANT P-TYPE THIS AFTN ONCE MID LVL                
DEFORMATION MOVES EAST OF REGION...BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME                  
SNOW FLAKES CONTINUING TO MIX IN.  MAY SEE A DEG OR TWO RECOVERY                
IN WESTERN FCST AREA THIS AFTN...BUT CAA SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM                 
CLIMBING MUCH AT ALL.  ADJUSTED TEMPS TO REFLECT CURRENT OBS.                   
REST OF FCST LOOKS GOOD...PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.  UPDATE ALREADY              
OUT.                                                                            
RYAN                                                                            
SHORT TERM (TODAY)...                                                           
AS SFC LO PIVOTING THRU FCST AREA THIS MRNG...HAVE SEEN PCPN                    
CHANGE OVER TO -SN ON BACK SIDE.  THIS AREA OF -SN ROUGHLY                      
OCCURRING FROM NRN CVG SUBURBS UP THRU DAYTON AND EAST TO                       
WILMINGTON.  SHOULD SEE -SHSN CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST INTO CNTRL OH              
AS SFC LO PULLS EAST THIS MRNG.  HAVE ADJUSTED WX AND TEMPS FOR                 
TODAY BASED ON CURRENT OBS AS A RESULT.  MANY LOCATIONS IN WESTERN              
FCST AREA HAVE DROPPED INTO 30S ALREADY...AND NOT EXPECTING ANY TEMP            
RECOVERY FOR REMAINDER OF DAY WITH STRONG CAA IN PLACE.  HAVE                   
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.                                                           
UPDATE OUT...PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.                                           
RYAN                                                                            
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...                                            
(ISSUED 430 AM EDT SAT APR 23 2005)                                             
SURFACE LOW IS EAST OF THE FA...WITH COLD FRONT RUNNING ACROSS                  
EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTIES.  UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN                   
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY.  RAIN IS ALREADY WRAPPING IN BEHIND               
THE LOW. FA SHOULD SEE OCCASIONAL RAIN TODAY.  1000-850 CRITICAL                
THICKNESS BEGIN TO FALL BELOW 1290 THIS AFTERNOON CHANGING THE                  
RAIN TO SNOW.  ALL OF THE FA SHOULD SEE SNOW TONIGHT AS THE COLD                
AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. WENT 1 TO 3 INCHES TONIGHT IN THE                
NORTHEAST AND LESS THAN AN INCH IN THE SW.  PCPN WILL CHANGE BACK               
TO RAIN FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON SUN...EXCEPT MAY THE EXTREME NE.                  
LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER 1 TO 2 ON SUN IN THE NE...LESS THAN AN INCH IN               
THE SW.  ALTHOUGH THE BEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN THE NE...WILL               
ISSUE A SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE FA...SINCE IT IS SO LATE IN                
THE SEASON.                                                                     
00Z MODELS ARE QUICKER IN PULLING PCPN OUT SUNDAY NIGHT...SO                    
BROUGHT THE PCPN TO AN END AND DRIED OUT MONDAY.                                
LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL SLOWLY FALL TODAY AS COLD AIR GETS WRAPPED                
INTO THE SYSTEM.                                                                
DIDNT CHANGES TEMPS TOO MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.                         
SITES                                                                           
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                      
DRIED OUT MONDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEMS LOOKS A LITTLE SLOWER.               
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...SNOW ADVISORY FOR OHZ026-OHZ034-OHZ035-OHZ042-OHZ043-OHZ044-               
     OHZ045-OHZ046-OHZ051-OHZ052-OHZ053-OHZ054-OHZ055-OHZ056-                   
     OHZ060-OHZ061-OHZ062-OHZ063-OHZ064-OHZ065-OHZ070-OHZ071-                   
     OHZ072-OHZ073-OHZ074-OHZ077-OHZ078-OHZ079-OHZ080-OHZ081-                   
     OHZ082-OHZ088 FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 2 PM SUNDAY.                           
  ...FREEZE WARNING FOR OHZ042-OHZ051-OHZ052-OHZ053-OHZ054-OHZ055-              
     OHZ060-OHZ061-OHZ062-OHZ063-OHZ064-OHZ065-OHZ070-OHZ071-                   
     OHZ072-OHZ073-OHZ074-OHZ077-OHZ078-OHZ079-OHZ080-OHZ081-                   
     OHZ082-OHZ088 FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO 10 AM SUNDAY.                            
KY...FREEZE WARNING FOR KYZ089-KYZ090-KYZ091-KYZ092-KYZ093-KYZ094-              
     KYZ095-KYZ096-KYZ097-KYZ098-KYZ099-KYZ100 FROM 3 AM                        
     SUNDAY TO 10 AM SUNDAY.                                                    
  ...SNOW ADVISORY FOR KYZ089-KYZ090-KYZ091-KYZ092-KYZ093-KYZ094-               
     KYZ095-KYZ096-KYZ097-KYZ098-KYZ099-KYZ100 FROM 6 PM                        
     SATURDAY TO 2 PM SUNDAY.                                                   
IN...FREEZE WARNING FOR INZ050-INZ058-INZ059-INZ066-INZ073-INZ074-              
     INZ075-INZ080 FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO 10 AM SUNDAY.                            
  ...SNOW ADVISORY FOR INZ050-INZ058-INZ059-INZ066-INZ073-INZ074-               
     INZ075-INZ080 FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 2 PM SUNDAY.                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh