FXUS04 KWBC 081007 PAA
QPFPFD
 
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
505 AM EST SAT FEB 08 2003
 
FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 09/1200 UTC THRU FEB 11/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
 

...06Z UPDATE...LATEST MDL DATA IS VRY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
RUNS..SO
LITTLE CHG WAS MADE TO THE PRELIM DAY 1 QPF...

DAY 1...

...SWRN STATES EWD THRU SRN PLAINS/TX AND ALG THE GULF CST...

MDLS AGREE S/WV ENERGY DROPPING SWD ON THE FNT SIDE OF THE
EPAC UPR RDG WILL KICK A MLVL CNTR AND ACCOMPANYING S/WV
ENERGY FM THE SRN CA CST E-SEWD ALG THE U.S.-MEX BORDER TO W-
CNTRL TX THIS PD.  MDLS ARE INDICATING .5 INCH PWS ASOCTD WITH THE
MLVL CNTR.  ALTHO THE MSTR IS LIMITED..THERE SHUD BE SUFFICIENT HT
FALLS AND STG MLVL DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF LGT
TO SPOTTY MDT PCPN AMTS FM NRN BAJA EWD OVR AZ/NM TO NRN TX AND
OK/SRN KS.  THE HVIEST PCPN IS XPCD OVR THE HIER TERRAIN OF SRN
AZ..WHICH WOULD BE JUST TO THE N OF THE S/WV TRACK.  MDL QPFS
WERE RSNBLY CLS HERE..WITH THE GFS JUST SLIGHTLY HVIER OVR SRN
AZ.  MEANWHILE FM SRN TX EWD OVR THE SRN GLF CSTL STATES TO
FL..THE MDLS ARE IN VRY GOOD AGRMT IN SHEARING A SERIES OF WK
S/WVS EWD THRU THE SUB-TRPCL JET.  THE S/WV ENERGY AND MSTR MVG
THRU THE SRN STREAM WILL OVRRN A FNTL BNDRY THAT HAS BEEN
FORCED SWD INTO THE GLF FM A SFC RDG BLDG OVR THE SRN TIER OF
STATES.  THE DEEPEST MSTR SHUD REMAIN OVR THE GLF THIS PD..SO
PCPN AMTS ARE XPCD TO BE GNLY LGT ACRS THIS RGN.  MDL QPFS IN
GOOD AGRMT HERE.  

...NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES EWD INTO THE GTLKS...

A COUPLE OF SGFNT S/WVS WILL ROTATE ARND THE MASSIVE PLR VRTX
AND INTO THE NRN TIER OF STATES THIS PD..USHERING IN ANOTHER RND
OF ARCTIC AIR.  HWVR..THESE IMPULSES WILL HAVE VRY LITTLE MSTR ON
WHICH TO WRK...SO XPC MOST SNOWFALL AMTS WITH THESE IMPULSES
TO BE ON THE LGT SIDE.  MDL QPFS IN GOOD AGRMT ACRS THESE AREAS.


DAY 2...

06Z UPDATE... THE 06Z ETA RUN HAS TRIED TO ADJUST SOMEWHAT
TOWARD THE GFS SOLN OVER THE CNTRL/ERN US BY SUN EVENING... BUT
IS STILL QUITE RESTRAINED IN ITS NEWD PROGRESSION OF PCPN E OF THE
MS VALLEY.  WILL GO WITH PRELIM FCST THAT RELIES PRIMARILY ON THE
00Z GFS.  

...CENTRAL/EASTERN US...

OVER THE PAST 24 HRS THE GFS AND ETA HAVE DONE LITTLE TO RESOLVE
THEIR SIGNIFICANT DIFFS IN MASS FIELD AND QPF FCSTS.  THE ECMWF
AND UKMET... AND TO A SLIGHTLY LESSER EXTENT THE CANADIAN... SIDE
MORE WITH THE GFS SCENARIO OF BRINGING A SRN STREAM SHRTWV
INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH APPCHG NRN
STREAM ENERGY OVER THE UPR MS VALLEY.  THE ETA IS FASTER WITH
BOTH FEATURES... RESULTING IN A QPF PATTERN THAT KEEPS PCPN AWAY
FROM THE MID ATLC THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD.  SHORT RANGE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUPPORTS THE ETA SOLN OF KEEPING
THE MID ATLC DRY THRU 12Z MON.  HOWEVER... GIVEN THE EXPERIENCE
OF THE LAST SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE ERN US... THE PRONOUNCED
SUBTROPICAL JET... AND BACKING OF FLOW AHEAD OF THE SRN STREAM
SHRTWV... THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS SOLN STILL SEEMS TO MAKE MORE
SENSE.  EXPECT APPCH OF THE SRN STREAM SHRTWV ENERGY TO BEGIN
ENHANCING RNFL OVER THE LWR MS VALLEY BY LATE SUN... SPREADING
NEWD TOWARD NC/VA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD... WITH SOME .50 INCH
OR HIGHER VALUES POSSIBLE.  FCST RAIN/SNOW LINE IS EXPECTED TO LIE
FROM THE S-CNTRL PLAINS TO THE CNTRL MID ATLC.  FARTHER S...
GFS/UKMET GENERALLY AGREE WITH A BAND OF LIGHTER RNFL ACROSS
NRN FL AND SERN US COAST IN ASSOC WITH OVERRUNNING N OF A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA.  FROM THE NRN PLAINS
TO GRTLKS... THE MID LVL TROF ROTATING INTO THE REGION FROM SRN
CANADA SHOULD SUPPORT LGT SNOWFALL SUN AND SUN NIGHT.  COLD
NWLY FLOW BEHIND THE ASSOC SFC FRONT SHOULD BRING ABOUT
ANOTHER EPISODE OF LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY OVER THE UPR GRTLKS
LATE IN THE PERIOD... WITH THE PREFERRED GFS STARTING IT A LITTLE
LATER THAN THE ETA.

...NRN-CNTRL ROCKIES/NRN HIGH PLAINS...

SHRTWV ENERGY STREAMING SEWD FROM WRN CANADA WILL SUPPORT
CONTINUATION OF LGT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION.  SFC FRONT
DRAPED ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES MAY HELP TO FOCUS
ACTIVITY... WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY RECEIVING A LITTLE
MORE THAN .25 INCH LIQUID.  


DAY 3...

...EASTERN US...

THE GFS CONTINUES TO HAVE REASONABLE SUPPORT FROM THE UKMET
WITH THE FCST OF MID LVL FLOW OVER THE ERN US.  HOWEVER THE GFS
INTENSIFIES SFC LOW PRES MUCH CLOSER TO THE NEW ENG COAST THAN
THE UKMET OR OTHER GUIDANCE... A RESULT OF A MORE NRN TRACK OF
THE SHRTWV CROSSING THE MID ATLC.  WHILE THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC SHRTWV INTERACTIONS AT THIS TIME FRAME...
NRN STREAM SHRTWV POSITIONED OVER THE UPR GRTLKS WOULD SEEM
TO BE FAR ENOUGH W TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE WRN
DEVELOPMENT CLOSER TO WHAT THE GFS SHOWS.  THUS THE MANUAL
PROG IS RELATIVELY SIMILAR TO THE 00Z GFS SOLN... GIVING SOME
.50-.75
INCH TOTALS TO PARTS OF ERN NEW ENG AND .25-.50 INCH TO THE MID
ATLC COAST AND INTERIOR NEW ENG.  CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE
GFS IS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW LVL WARMING OVER THE NRN MID
ATLC AND SRN NEW ENG... SO IN THIS AREA WOULD EXPECT A GREATER
PERCENTAGE OF PCPN TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW THAN THE 00Z GFS
SUGGESTS.  MEANWHILE... GENERALLY LGT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SHOULD
DECREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE PERIOD AS WEAK SFC RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.       

...NRN-CNTRL ROCKIES/NRN HIGH PLAINS...

EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN COMPARED TO THE
DAY 2 PERIOD.  A MODEST RISE IN HGTS MAY LEAD TO A SLIGHT DECREASE
IN COVERAGE/AMTS OF LGT SNOWFALL OVER THE REGION VERSUS THE
PRIOR 24 HRS... WITH LESS THAN .20 INCH LIQUID MOST LOCATIONS.

WOLF/RAUSCH

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov
24HR QP VT 09/12Z
 0.01 486704 483698 479696 474695 470698 464701 461703 459702
454707 
      447719 441723 438729 432739 427748 409782 400803 392822
389831 
      384842 381850 378860 374872 369883 365893 360900 356908
353911 
      349915 341918 334919 325919 314922 305927 302924 302917
301910 
      301907 303894 306886 311879 314870 315858 317836 317826
318816 
      318813 316809 312809 310807 310804 309798 307791 304785
300784 
      292781 288780 284783 282786 281791 278801 275809 273818
274828 
      276832 277835 277842 277853 275862 274871 273881 273898
273905 
      275911 278920 278929 276939 271946 263952 254954 251956
248960 
      250968 255977 263983 270986 276991 282997 285999 288000
297999 
      302997 305994 311987 316979 319972 322967 327968 330970
334974 
      337980 337984 339996 340012 339025 337037 335042 332045
326045 
      320044 317047 311052 306050 302051 302063 303067 305069
308072 
      310076 310079 308086 305091 301098 299104 298110 298120
300126 
      303127 313131 322135 336123 341123 346124 351125 355124
357117 
      355105 355095 359085 362075 365065 367060 370056 373052
372048 
      369047 365047 361044 360041 359034 360026 362022 366019
370017 
      376010 378002 378996 379989 377984 375974 375962 376952
379931 
      382920 385909 388904 389899 391893 396889 398888 401890
400894 
      401898 400908 402916 401923 403938 404946 406952 411954
415952 
      419943 421935 420920 423911 443900 447898 451898 458904
462908 
      465909 468909 479906 482903 484898 488886 489872 487863
485853 
      483842 484835 486829 492811 493805 494798 496792 496786
497773 
      494758 493753 491748 487744 480734 483726 485716 486704 
 0.01 499136 500130 501122 498114 496106 494095 493085 493072
494064 
      496054 497045 496037 493028 490026 486027 483034 480042
476042 
      473038 467032 462030 453028 450027 448024 445017 441011
435009 
      431013 428013 427009 425999 423992 418985 414980 408978
401979 
      397985 398991 400999 403006 405017 404038 404046 401052
395064 
      391070 392075 394078 400082 407083 413083 416087 412094
407095 
      405099 404105 400109 401114 406118 411122 417123 426126
432124 
      434121 437120 442122 447126 448135 451142 448143 439141
436146 
      436151 439158 444165 446171 451177 453175 454170 455164
458160 
      461159 465163 469166 473166 478166 482165 482160 481157
477151 
      476145 479144 483144 489148 491149 494145 497140 499136 
 0.01 322171 323168 322166 321164 320161 319161 317157 317157
315155 
      312154 309153 306155 305155 303158 303158 302161 303163
305165 
      306165 308166 310168 312169 313170 316172 318173 321172
322171 
 0.25 342106 343096 341088 334085 331085 330087 327095 321098
318103 
      317106 318110 320112 323111 326108 329103 332102 338106
342106 
 0.25 294873 293870 293867 292866 290868 289869 288872 288873
287876 
      286879 286879 286882 287885 288886 291886 292884 293882
293880 
      293877 294875 294873 
 0.25 296960 294956 291955 289957 287959 281962 278963 274966
272970 
      277973 280973 284972 288971 293967 294964 296960  
 
24HR QP VT 10/12Z
 0.01 484687 480677 476673 475668 472664 468660 464658 459663
457666 
      450676 446688 443697 437704 434708 431714 431718 435719
435721 
      431724 428726 427730 432734 432736 430739 424740 420742
415745 
      412753 410753 408749 404742 400737 395733 387729 377728
368729 
      357733 341740 331747 324754 318765 315777 312782 309783
303784 
      299783 296782 293781 290782 279789 274793 272797 268805
267811 
      269817 272831 275844 274851 273860 276868 282876 285883
286895 
      284909 280919 276928 272936 274946 272955 273962 276967
280969 
      285970 295971 307970 318968 326969 330971 334974 336978
338983 
      341992 343998 347003 356009 364014 376018 387022 392024
397027 
      404034 408038 410038 415034 418029 418021 417012 414999
412996 
      413991 408982 404972 403969 404968 409966 418967 429969
439970 
      443974 442977 438991 436998 432003 428007 425012 425019
425024 
      426028 431044 431049 429052 427054 424054 412053 403050
399051 
      396052 392055 386061 383071 383077 386081 388083 393086
400086 
      405083 413080 422076 429076 433080 436085 433088 430088
426090 
      424097 418103 413106 411106 407102 406106 399114 408121
417126 
      424129 428127 431124 437120 440120 445126 449139 453145
457150 
      463160 467164 475167 482166 484164 485160 483153 479149
478146 
      480146 486147 491151 494151 496149 496144 494140 492135
489129 
      485124 481116 484119 489121 496127 504136 516148 522152
526151 
      528149 530147 532142 534134 534126 533121 531116 526105
519094 
      515089 511085 503074 497062 491045 489041 488036 489030
490024 
      491015 495001 496994 498989 502977 510959 517945 519939
518927 
      517918 515910 515904 517897 518864 515851 513843 510834
510827 
      509815 509808 507799 505788 502768 500761 498756 496752
490737 
      482732 474738 470746 462769 459775 457778 455775 453770
453762 
      456748 458740 461736 468723 472716 477709 480704 483698
484687 
 0.01 443824 441820 437817 433814 430809 427806 425806 422807
419810 
      417816 417821 415827 414837 419844 423845 428844 430840
430837 
      429833 431829 438832 441829 443824 
 0.25 484863 485858 485854 484849 483845 482841 480837 478834
478833 
      474831 474831 471831 471833 469837 469838 470842 470847
471851 
      473854 473855 474858 476862 478865 478865 481867 484864
484863 
 0.25 461068 460064 459062 456060 456059 454060 453060 451064
453068 
      453068 456069 459070 461068 
 0.25 389809 389803 387800 384795 382790 380782 378773 374765
370760 
      367759 365762 358781 354794 350804 341822 335833 330844
325863 
      318873 316879 316884 313895 309905 306916 306921 307926
306931 
      304936 299943 298947 300949 304948 314941 322934 329928
333926 
      341923 346920 351916 355920 355926 356938 359938 361931
363918 
      362911 358907 357904 359899 362897 367891 370880 373868
375857 
      378844 383831 389809 
 0.25 342774 340769 334772 330777 328780 326783 324787 323791
322797 
      321802 324805 327803 332800 333796 335792 337788 339783
341778 
      342774 
 0.25 319803 316800 312800 308802 297803 293808 291812 288823
288836 
      288842 290849 296859 300861 303859 305857 309845 312835
316825 
      319814 319803 
 0.50 367804 363797 360797 359800 357804 357812 357817 353820
348826 
      345835 340850 338866 330882 331887 335891 340888 345884
352877 
      354875 355870 358862 360854 362843 364837 365832 365827
362817 
      366813 367807 367804 
 0.50 328900 327899 325900 323902 323903 322905 323908 324910
326908 
      327907 327904 328902 328900  
 
24HR QP VT 11/12Z
 0.01 485649 483640 479631 472617 468611 464609 460608 456609
452609 
      446613 437620 431625 428629 421639 415652 412662 406672
399679 
      386696 379704 371711 354726 340742 312773 300787 293793
285793 
      281793 276794 272801 269811 267818 266830 267836 267840
268846 
      270850 277853 283853 289851 292848 297846 302842 309839
320836 
      332834 337834 343831 349829 353828 357830 360835 361842
361852 
      361859 362866 365878 375901 376907 379922 381930 383935
385942 
      387947 390953 393957 398968 416009 420018 425028 430037
435048 
      434052 432053 428051 421050 418053 413054 409053 404051
398052 
      391058 387062 385068 384073 386077 389081 392083 395083
400082 
      406080 414079 425078 431078 436080 442085 442088 440088
433089 
      418103 417108 413111 411117 411120 414122 422125 431122
436120 
      441120 445124 448129 451140 457150 461156 466160 469161
472159 
      475155 474145 478142 482142 488140 489138 485131 472119
482112 
      486111 493112 499118 504122 507126 510129 514131 517131
522130 
      525125 527119 531116 533110 534105 534100 533095 529082
523072 
      512053 499036 493027 490023 486019 472002 465995 459987
451980 
      445978 442978 440983 441991 443997 443000 441001 435995
429988 
      421979 416972 406956 400946 395936 390924 385910 381902
379898 
      378891 381886 385889 393892 406888 414885 426880 432879
436878 
      448877 451877 455878 459881 459886 459891 460901 463905
467907 
      473904 475901 482889 484884 484877 485872 484868 483860
481847 
      480842 481837 482831 486817 490805 493793 495777 497771
496768 
      497762 497737 496722 494714 494708 494698 493684 489664
485649 
 0.01 525188 5261