FXUS04 KWBC 181837
QPFPFD
 
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
236 PM EDT WED AUG 18 2004
 
PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 19/0000 UTC THRU AUG 20/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
 

DAY 1...

...CNTRL ROCKIES EWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS/MID MS VLY...

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CNVCTN THIS PD IS LIKELY OVR THIS
REGION..ALG AND N OF THE STALLING FNTL BNDRY WHERE SOME LOW
LVL UPSLOPE FLO AND THE ESEWD MOVG H5 S/WV ALSO AID IN LRG
SCALE LIFT.  AS USUAL..THE GFS IS SUFFERING FM GRID SCALE
FEEDBACK PROBS..SO LEANED A LTL MORE TWDS THE ETA QPF AND
MASS FIELD SOLNS.   THE SOMEWHAT LONG DURATION OF THE
EVENT..ESP OVR ERN/SERN CO INTO WRN KS..AND POOLING OF PWS TO
NR OR GTR THAN 1.50 INCHES..WL SUPPORT A STRIPE OF HVY
RAINS..MAINLY FM CNTRL AND ERN CO EWD INTO WRN/CNTRL
KS..AGAIN MORE IN LN WITH THE ETA SOLN.    SOME 0.50 TO 1.00
INCH RAINS LIKELY TO STREAK OUT WELL INTO THE MID MS VLY..ALG
THE FNTL BNDRY AND UNDER PERSISTENT 20KTS OR SO OF SSWLY LLJ.

...NEW ENG WSWWD INTO THE OH RVR VLY...

FNTL BNDRY PUSHING THRU THIS REGION ALSO LIKELY TO BE QUITE
CNVCTVLY ACTIVE..IN ZONE OF FNTL CNVGNC AND WHERE SOME BTR
MID LVL DYNAMICS/HGT FALLS EXIST AS WELL AS SOME RT ENTRANCE
REGION UPR JET DYNAMICS.   RATHER FAST FNTL MOVEMENT THRU NEW
ENG SHLD LIMIT RNFL AMTS THERE TO 0.25-0.50 INCHES..WHILE
BACK IN THE OH RVR VLY A STRIPE OF GTR THAN 0.50 INCH RAINS
LIKELY IN WHERE FNT IS SLOER MOVG AND WL STALL JUST BYD THIS
PD.   ETA AND GFS QPFS IN BTR AGREEMENT HERE.

...OK INTO TX AND WRN LA...

SRN STREAM S/WV NOW VCNTY OF THE BIG BEND SHLD RMN SLOLY
PROGRESSIVE THIS PD DUE TO WK WNWLY FLO ALOFT UPSTREAM.  
BOTH THE ETA AND GFS INDICATE MSTR WL RETURN NWD AHD OF THIS
SYS UP THRU TX INTO OK AND LA..WITH PWS APCHG 2 INCHES AS FAR
N AS OK BY THE END OF THE PD.   XPC THE LRG SCALE LIFT FM THE
S/WV TO COMBINE WITH THIS INCREASING MSTR/LOW LVL WAA TO
SUPPORT INCREASING CNVCTN MUCH OF CNTRL/ERN TX INTO OK AND
WRN LA.   AGAIN..THE GFS IS GETTING CONTAMINATED BY GRID
SCALE FEEDBACK PROBS..SO DIDN'T GO WITH ITS REAL HVY QPF SOLN
OVR NCNTRL TX..BUT I DID BEEF UP THE ETA QPF..WHICH LOOKS A
LTL UNDERDONE.   THUS..XPC RATHER WIDESPREAD 0.25-0.75 INCH
RNFL AMTS MUCH OF THE AREA.

...NAME AREA...

PATN OVER OLD MEX RMNS FAIRLY DRY WITH MOST OF THE DEEPER
MSTR PERSISTING ALG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE
OCCIDENTAL UNDER EVOLVING NW FLOW ALOFT.  XPC CNVCTN TO
PRIMARILY FOCUS ALG THE CNTRL/SRN SMO UNDER THIS REGIME.

TERRY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
 
24HR QP VT 20/00Z
 0.01 225063 237074 246079 256083 273090 283093 289091 293087 
      297087 300088 308092 318098 326103 331106 334110 337117 
      340123 343127 347131 353134 360134 365127 367123 367119 
      364115 363110 365107 372104 382102 384106 385113 385122 
      388127 392130 396135 402142 405144 411146 415149 415155 
      414160 417166 419173 422174 429170 438165 441167 444174 
      451182 456181 460180 469172 472171 477173 482178 485183 
      490193 495196 499194 505192 508193 514202 518210 521214 
      524217 528220 531222 534221 549169 546163 543158 534146 
      526136 522130 518128 508123 497117 485112 477108 472104 
      467098 464093 461090 458089 452087 445083 433077 428076 
      425070 424065 423056 421049 417042 409033 406026 405021 
      405012 406004 410975 414952 417938 420927 423921 435888 
      448862 477834 496825 507825 511830 504847 489860 480878 
      479886 479894 478931 479947 485994 488004 496017 510025 
      526035 534021 531965 526930 524904 536879 543819 529787 
      510754 505729 504700 499670 485645 483646 465652 459656 
      455657 450660 445665 434675 426686 417697 412700 412696 
      409694 403696 395700 388703 381707 375712 367717 354725 
      349728 345732 339738 336742 329752 324761 320770 317780 
      312798 311804 312808 314811 319812 323809 327803 333790 
      357757 365749 371753 370763 374765 383765 388769 385780 
      366800 352818 346832 346835 347837 349840 351841 354839 
      358834 360834 363843 366850 370853 375854 380855 384857 
      384871 382884 381899 374912 365919 349920 348919 337916 
      328910 319904 308897 307897 292891 285891 279893 273898 
      268910 266923 267938 269950 273961 276978 275990 272999 
      270008 273018 277024 278025 281029 286031 293034 297034 
      303033 309029 319024 322025 322030 322039 
 0.01 322039 321046 322055 324062 324065 321069 316072 310072 
      305070 294067 283063 274059 264053 255048 247043 239037 
      234028 230023 
 0.01 528244 523241 520235 518229 510225 506220 502215 498209 
      495207 492206 480207 476208 472210 470214 472219 473221 
      480221 485222 489225 493231 496238 499244 503252 505258 
      507262 510265 512268 518272 
 0.01 305819 305813 303810 297806 284798 273790 268786 261784 
      252786 248788 243793 240800 241809 240816 249826 254832 
      260836 265839 271839 275837 284833 293830 302826 305819 
 0.25 225054 234060 241066 250071 258076 269079 275078 276076 
      275072 273068 269065 258060 250057 245054 242051 234044 
      227040 
 0.25 514795 511792 505790 501789 498790 492790 487794 482798 
      480802 478807 479812 483814 488813 494811 500808 503807 
      508805 513801 514795 
 0.25 459711 456707 453704 450704 439710 432713 427718 418726 
      414726 411724 409726 406731 405738 407748 408757 408765 
      407771 405785 405800 406814 406826 403854 401870 399878 
      391910 382923 369940 367943 362947 354949 346949 337946 
      332944 327941 321933 308918 300911 295909 290909 286910 
      283912 280916 280923 281931 284947 287958 290972 290984 
      289999 288004 285009 286017 289021 295021 301019 303016 
      305008 310000 313997 319994 325992 331993 337995 341998 
      345002 347009 348015 349020 349025 346031 343034 341038 
      342042 346045 356051 364055 374060 385068 393078 398082 
      405080 409076 412072 413067 413057 411051 408046 403037 
      399025 398014 399005 401988 406959 412932 416907 421879 
      425845 425831 425816 427802 426789 427781 428775 432761 
      433753 435747 439740 444735 453722 459711 
 0.25 441113 444109 443105 442100 441099 438099 437100 435104 
      435105 432108 432112 435114 438115 441113 441113 
 0.25 343099 343096 342092 341090 340089 339085 338083 338082 
      335079 335078 333077 330078 329082 330083 331085 333087 
      333089 334092 335095 337099 338100 341101 343099 
 0.25 280813 278807 272803 268798 263794 258793 253795 250801 
      249804 249808 252811 256816 262820 266822 271823 275823 
      278820 280815 280813 
 0.50 414887 419849 419816 417797 415795 413799 411818 410846 
      411851 406864 404876 402890 401899 400909 401917 398923 
      394934 392941 388946 382951 379951 377948 374948 371953 
      366962 364969 363972 363977 366983 366990 363005 360018 
      358024 357029 358036 363042 381054 392061 398064 404064 
      395009 400980 405949 408934 408928 408920 411905 414887 
 0.50 309952 307949 307945 305942 304939 303939 301937 300935 
      299934 296932 294932 292935 293938 294941 295944 296944 
      298947 299949 300950 302952 303953 305954 308952 309952 
 0.50 266806 265805 264803 262801 261800 258799 256803 257806 
      259809 261811 262811 265812 266809 266807 266806 
 0.50 265069 264068 261066 261065 258064 256063 254063 253063 
      251066 253066 255069 256069 258069 261070 264070 265069 
 0.50 237051 234048 231047 229046 229045 226046 226049 229051 
      230051 231052 234053 237052 237051 
 1.00 394985 397964 397955 396954 393958 382988 380992 378999 
      374007 368021 367024 367028 372034 376039 381043 385044 
      388043 390035 388028 387022 388017 391002 394985 
 1.50 386006 384000 381003 379007 376012 374018 373022 373029 
      377032 380034 384032 384024 384017 385010 386006  
 
$$