AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ                                             
138 PM MST WED JUL 23 2008                                                      
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA                  
FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                             
.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION                                           
&&                                                                              
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND                    
MEXICO TODAY...CONTINUING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS                
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR EAST. ACROSS THE DESERTS...               
DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST HAS MOVED INTO THE VALLEY FLOORS...                     
DECREASING THE DAILY THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHILE                 
AIDING IN A CONTINUED WARMING TREND. A CHANGE IN WEATHER MIGHT BE               
LURKING AROUND THE CORNER...AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY             
EJECTS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FROM THE EAST BACK INTO THE             
LOWER DESERTS THIS WEEKEND.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN GILA                  
COUNTY AND HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION             
DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. THIS SEEMS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A                   
VORTICITY LOBE WHICH HAS DEVELOPED IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL                    
DEFORMATION...JUST EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ORIENTED SOUTHWEST             
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. BOTH THE NAM12 AND RUC12 DO A            
DECENT JOB IN INITIALIZING THIS FEATURE. THIS ALSO APPEARS TO                   
COINCIDE CLOSELY WITH THE APPROXIMATE POSITION OF AN INVERTED                   
TROUGH...WHICH HAS BEEN PROGGED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS TO MOVE              
EAST TO WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. BOTH SHORT RANGE                    
FORECAST MODELS...HOWEVER LOSE THIS FEATURE AS IT ATTEMPTS TO PUSH              
FURTHER TOWARD THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY.                                        
TODAYS FORECAST IS ANOTHER CHALLENGING ONE. MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS              
SIGNIFICANT DRYING FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 700 MB. THIS COULD                
HINDER STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.                        
NAM...GFS...AND LOCAL WRF WANT TO KEEP AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT                    
CONFINED TO THE MORE FAVORABLE HIGHER TERRAIN REGIONS NORTH AND EAST            
OF PHOENIX. THE RUC HOWEVER BRINGS THE PRECIPITATION A LITTLE                   
FURTHER WEST...THOUGH STILL EAST OF PHOENIX.                                    
THE REAL QUESTION WILL BE...HOW MUCH DO THE LOWER LEVELS MOISTEN UP             
THROUGH THE DAY...AND HOW MUCH STORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURS TO OUR                  
SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY. SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY TO OUR SOUTHEAST COULD              
RESULT IN OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PROPAGATING NORTHWARD...BRINGING                   
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR STORM             
DEVELOPMENT. THESE BOUNDARIES COULD ALSO INTERACT WITH THOSE                    
PRODUCED BY STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST AND NORTH.               
THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING ALSO SHOWED WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT...THOUGH            
THE MODELS INDICATE THAT STORM MOTION WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST              
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CAN THEREFORE NOT RULE OUT STORMS             
THAT DEVELOP ON THE MOUNTAINS MOVING DOWN INTO THE VALLEYS.                     
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO TODAYS TEMPS AND POPS...PRIMARILY IN              
EAST AND SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE                         
SHOWERS...ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS AND MORE MOISTURE EXISTS THIS                   
MORNING.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
ISSUED AT 535 AM MST WED JUL 23 2008                                            
SAT IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS ANTICYCLONIC SPIN OVER MUCH OF             
THE GREATER SOUTHWEST...AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM CO                        
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SRN CA. A PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW                
LEVELS OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO HAS LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN            
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SFC THROUGH ABOUT 750MB (10K FT) ACROSS             
THE WRN CWA AND INTO THE SOUTH-CNTRL AZ DESERTS. AS OF 00UTC...THE              
KPSR RAOB HAD A PWATER OF 1.43 INCHES COMPARED TO 1.81 INCHES 24                
HOURS PREVIOUS. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO CONTINUED TO WARM SEVERAL DEG            
EACH DAY THIS WEEK...WITH ANOTHER COUPLE DEG OF WARMING EXPECTED                
TODAY. MEANWHILE...A MORE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FROM 750MB-500MB HAS               
KEPT OUR FAR ERN HIGHER TERRAIN PLENTY MOIST...WHICH IS WHERE                   
SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE PRETTY MUCH BEEN CONFINED THE PAST DAY OR SO.                
TODAY AND THURSDAY...WE ARE STILL WATCHING THE WEAK INVERTED TROF OF            
LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN OVER W TX THIS WEEK AS IT SLOWLY INCHES              
ITS WAY WESTWARD. MODELS CONTINUE SHOW THIS FEATURE MOVING ACROSS               
FAR SOUTHERN AZ AND MAINLY MEXICO TODAY AND THURSDAY. WITH EACH                 
PASSING RUN...THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN SHUNTED FURTHER SOUTH...LIMITING             
THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO OUR LOWER DESERTS...AS WELL AS KEEPING              
THE BEST FORCING ALOFT OVER SOUTHEAST AZ. FCST TREND THE PAST 24                
HOURS HAS BEEN BACKING OFF ON THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS/TSTMS                  
TODAY...AND THIS MORNING`S PACKAGE IS NO EXCEPTION. I`VE LEFT                   
SCATTERED WORDING IN THE FCST TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING FOR THE              
HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX IN ZONE 23...BUT OTHERWISE...POPS                
HAVE BEEN CUT BACK TO LOW TEENS ACROSS THE DESERT VALLEY                        
FLOORS...WITH NEXT TO NO CHANCE OF ACTIVITY OVER THE WRN CWA THROUGH            
AT LEAST THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. NOW...WHAT HAPPENS AFTER ABOUT                
MIDNIGHT MIGHT BE ANOTHER STORY. EVEN WITH THE BULK OF THE                      
DYNAMICS...AND CERTAINLY MOISTURE...STAYING WELL SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF             
OUR AREA TODAY...IF THINGS COME TOGETHER NICELY OVER SE AZ (TWC CWA)            
LATER...WITH A POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPING WITH THE IMPORT OF COOLER AND            
MORE MOIST AIR IN THEIR MORE EASTERLY FLOW...WE COULD SEE THIS                  
FEATURE MARCH ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND WESTERN DESERTS OVERNIGHT                  
TONIGHT. BECAUSE OF THAT...I`VE DECIDED TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE (ABOUT            
25%) IN THE FCST FROM THE CO RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD FROM MIDNIGHT                
THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS. IF THIS ENDS UP BEING THE CASE...WE                
WOULD EXPECT THE LOW LEVELS TO MOISTEN SIGNIFICANTLY...WHICH COULD              
LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE FOR VALLEY SHOWERS/TSTMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON             
AS WELL. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF            
THE FCST...BUT BOTTOM LINE IS A MUCH MORE BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN IS             
IN STORE FOR OUR AREA THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND FCSTS WERE                   
SHOWING.                                                                        
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AFTER THE INVERTED TROF PASSES WELL TO             
THE WEST...THE HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT OVER THE PLAINS...MAKING ROOM             
FOR THE REMNANTS OF TS DOLLY TO MOVE EASTWARD. WITH THE CLOCKWISE               
CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH...AND THE COUNTERCLOCKWISE CIRCULATION              
FROM THE TS COMING TOGETHER...WE COULD END UP WITH A PRETTY LONG                
FETCH OF VERY MOIST SUBTROPICAL AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION UNDER AN             
EASTERLY FLOW. MODELS ARE INDICATING LOWER LEVEL MEAN MIXING RATIOS             
TO INCREASE BACK TO NEAR 12/13 G/KG (COMPARED TO 7/8 G/KG NOW). WITH            
THE MORE FAVORABLE STEERING FLOW...AND ADDED MOISTURE...FELT IT                 
PRUDENT TO SHOW AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS THIS              
WEEKEND (AND CURRENT FCST NOW REFLECTS THIS).                                   
BEYOND THE WEEKEND...IT IS REALLY ANYONE`S GUESS. AT THIS POINT IN              
TIME...THERE DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE ANYTHING UPSTREAM TO WIPE OUT OUR             
MOISTURE...SO WE`LL CONTINUE A LOW GRADE MONSOON FCST THOUGH THE                
EXTENDED...WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN               
AND TEMPS RUNNING A COULD DEG BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY.                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...KPHX/KIWA AND SURROUNDING AIRFIELDS...                  
AIRMASS WEST OF KPHX TO THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER HAS DRIED OUT                  
CONSIDERABLY...EAST OF KPHX INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN STILL MAINTAINS             
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. WITH A WEAK NORTHEAST STEERING             
FLOW...THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS TO MOVE SW OFF THE              
HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO THE DESERTS THROUGH 03Z THURSDAY. HOWEVER               
...ANY STORM THAT MOVES INTO THE DESERTS NEAR KIWA/KPHX HAS THE                 
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 35 KTS. DUE TO                   
UNCERTAINTIES/LOW POPS...WILL NOT MENTION WEATHER AT THIS TIME.                 
WINDS SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND DIURNAL OVERNIGHT THROUGH 12Z               
THURSDAY.                                                                       
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...KNYL/KBLH AND KIPL...              
AIRMASS MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE WITH NO THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS              
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS FAVORING THE SOUTH                     
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ...LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.                             
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.                               
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FRIDAY THOUGH THE WEEKEND...AND            
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AIRMASS WILL BE GRADUALLY WETTING UP FRIDAY               
THROUGH SUNDAY AS MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE DOLLY WORKS WESTWARD AND              
INTO THE STATE...LEADING TO A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS                  
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ BY SATURDAY...WITH POSSIBLY A BETTER CHANCE             
SUNDAY. AS HUMIDITIES RISE...MAX TEMPS WILL LOWER...LIKELY TO WELL              
BELOW NORMAL VALUES BY SUNDAY. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT MECHANISM TO                 
REALLY DRY THINGS OUT NEXT WEEK...WE WILL KEEP AT LEAST A STANDARD              
GRADE MONSOON FORECAST GOING...WITH MAX TEMPS TO CLIMB TO NEAR                  
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.                                                
&&                                                                              
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AZ...NONE.                                                                      
CA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT                          
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX                                                             
DISCUSSION...MCLANE/WANEK                                                       
AVIATION...MEYERS                                                               
FIRE WEATHER...CB                                                               
</pre> az                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV                                                
330 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE EXCEPTIONAL AMOUNT OF SEVERE                  
WEATHER MONDAY WILL FILL AND EXIT INTO SOUTHEAST OREGON THIS                    
MORNING. WITH A JET STREAK AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE MOVING INTO                     
EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER                    
LOW...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL                 
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...MOSTLY NORTH OF GERLACH. AS FAR AS                      
SEVERITY...WHILE WIND SHEAR ALOFT REMAINS STRONG...INSTABILITY IS               
WANING ACCORDING TO RUC MODEL FORECASTS SO ANY STORMS MAY TEND TO               
TEAR APART SOMEWHAT AND/OR REMAIN MODEST IN STRENGTH.                           
AS FAR AS FLASH FLOODING...WITH FAST MOVING THUNDERSTORMS I AM                  
NOT TOO CONCERNED WITH FLASH FLOODING. THEREFORE...I HAVE CANCELLED             
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH A COUPLE HOURS EARLY TO COINCIDE WITH THE                 
MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE.                                                       
AFTER THE UPPER LOW EXITS THIS MORNING...THE REGION WILL SETTLE                 
INTO A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES                  
WILL SLOWLY WARM AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD...WITH HIGHS                 
WINDING UP 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY. SNYDER                        
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...                                           
MODELS STILL SHOWING SIMILAR TRENDS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH                   
SATURDAY LOOKING TO BE THE MOST INTERESTING DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN             
AND EASTERN ZONES.  CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO               
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. ON FRIDAY HELPING TO TURN OUR FLOW SOUTHERLY              
WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA                   
COAST.  MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SURGE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN AND                
EASTERN NEVADA ON FRIDAY.  MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS               
FOR MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  THERE ARE TIMING                
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC...THE EC IS ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER            
IN EJECTING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAN THE GFS ON SATURDAY                       
AFTERNOON.  WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS            
FOR THE SOUTHERN AND FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR ZONES DURING THE               
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE INCREASES               
ACROSS THE AREA.  KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT             
WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF THE UPPER SYSTEM.                            
UPPER WAVE FLATTENS PUSHES RIDGE EASTWARD AND TURNS OUR FLOW                    
SOUTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS               
THE FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER MONO            
AND MINERAL COUNTIES EACH AFTERNOON.  CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE IS                    
FORECAST TO BUILD BACK INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY TURNING             
THE FLOW ONCE AGAIN MORE SOUTHERLY INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS                   
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEVADA.  INCREASED TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF                     
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND FAR EASTERN             
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.                                                  
TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS REACHING TO               
NEAR 100 THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA WHILE THE HIGH SIERRA             
WILL REACH THE MID 80S.  THINGS WILL COOL OFF SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT               
WEEK WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN WESTERN NEVADA AND                 
LOWER 80S IN THE SIERRA. MOZLEY                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST                  
AREA EXCEPT FOR AREAS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND LOVELOCK WHERE                    
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z.                   
QUIET DAY AT THE TERMINALS WITH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WEST WINDS OFF            
THE SIERRA. BRONG                                                               
&&                                                                              
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NV...NONE.                                                                      
CA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO                                                         
</pre> ca                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO                                              
305 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...CONVECTION CURRENTLY CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN EAST              
OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS SHOWN BY LATEST RADAR LOOPS. SOME                  
STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE. NO STORMS             
YET OVER THE PLAINS. WITH CONTINUED HEATING...SHOULD SEE COVERAGE OF            
MOUNTAIN STORMS INCREASE BY THE EVENING...WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT             
SCATTERED POPS THERE. HARD TO SEE ANY SIGN OF A SHORTWAVE ON                    
SATELLITE WHICH WOULD HELP TO INCREASE COVERAGE. AS FOR PLAINS...               
AIRMASS STILL SLIGHTLY CAPPED THOUGH LAPS SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING              
CIN ALL BUT GONE. ALSO...ACARS SOUNDINGS INDICATING VERY MINIMAL                
CIN. SO...POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS PLAINS                
SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW                    
PROVIDING A BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN WELD...MORGAN AND CENTRAL ADAMS             
COUNTIES. CUMULUS HAD BEEN DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY DURING THE            
PAST HOUR. COULD SEE A FEW STORMS FIRE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. IN                  
ADDITION...OUTFLOW FROM MOUNTAIN STORMS COULD ALSO BECOME FOCUS FOR             
CONVECTION. THOUGH RUC KEEPS MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE QPF OVER THE                
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...THE NAM AND GFS SPREAD SOME QPF OVER THE                    
PLAINS. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS...WILL UP THE EVENING POPS TO 30                   
PERCENT FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS. CURRENT                     
INTEGRATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVERING AROUND NINE TENTHS OF             
AN INCH...COULD ACTUALLY SEE SOME RAINFALL WITH THE STORMS. STEERING            
WINDS ARE LIGHT...SO STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING WITH THE POTENTIAL              
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE ENDING BY MIDNIGHT...             
THOUGH COULD SEE A FEW STORMS LINGER PAST MIDNIGHT OVER THE                     
MOUNTAINS. ON WEDNESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN EXCEPT               
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST INTO EASTERN                    
COLORADO. THIS COULD BRING MORE OF THE MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS OUR                
AREA. IN ADDITION..LATEST NAM SHOWING A BATCH OF QG ASCENT IN THE               
700-500 MB LAYER ROTATING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE                    
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE COULD BE ENOUGH TO AID IN INCREASING                    
CONVECTION CHANCES. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS            
PLAINS AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW QUITE A BIT OF CIN DURING               
THE AFTERNOON. AS FOR MOUNTAINS...SCATTERED POPS SUFFICIENT FOR NOW.            
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER AN INCH               
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH AROUND SEVEN TENTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE              
MOUNTAINS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH THE STORMS.                     
TEMPERATURE AND THICKNESS PROGS SHOW LITTE CHANGE FROM TODAY`S                  
PATTERN. HIGHS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER GIVEN A BIT MORE CLOUD             
COVER. GUIDANCE INDICATING HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MID 90S ACROSS THE            
PLAINS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. CURRENT TEMPERATURE GRIDS IN LINE                
WITH GUIDANCE...LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS POINT.                     
.LONG TERM...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE                    
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. VERY WARM             
AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL IN THIS PATTERN.             
BEST CHANCE FOR MOISTURE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE                     
WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODELS SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE                   
AREA...LEADING TO GREATER INSTABILITY WHICH SHOULD BE ABLE TO BREAK             
THE CAP ACROSS THE PLAINS. MOISTURE TO DECREASE THURSDAY AND WE`LL              
BE BACK TO THE SAME OLD PATTERN OF MOSTLY MOUNTAIN AND FOOTHILL                 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS HINTING AT SOME SORT OF SHORT WAVE            
PASSING THROUGH THE RIDGE SUNDAY OR MONDAY. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN               
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS. WILL HOLD FROM INCREASING THE POPS FOR THIS            
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK. HIGH                      
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS EACH DAY.                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH 04Z...WHICH                 
COULD AFFECT AREA AIRPORTS.  GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN                   
POSSIBLE IF STORMS TRACK OVER THE AIRPORTS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL                 
PREVAIL. SOUTHEAST SURFACE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING...WITH               
SURFACE WINDS BECOMING DRAINAGE BY 06Z. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS                  
POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.                   
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS...WHICH MAY BRIEFLY LOWER                   
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY.                                 
&&                                                                              
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
D-L/MEIER                                                                       
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
335 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID TO UPPER TROUGH FROM THE            
GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE OFF THE SE              
U.S. COAST PER RUC AND NAM GUIDANCE. AT SFC...RIDGE AXIS IS ACROSS              
CENTRAL FL AND ANTICIPATE LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS FEATURE FOR THE NEXT            
3 DAYS. JAX SOUNDING FROM 00Z SHOWED PWAT OF ABOUT 2 INCHES AND MEAN            
0-6KM WINDS FROM THE NW AT 5 KT. CONSIDERABLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL               
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS BLANKETS PORTIONS OF THE AREA FROM EARLIER                    
CONVECTION OVER THE SE CONUS. ANTICIPATE A FEW AREA PLACES OVER THE             
SRN ZONES TO DEVELOP PATCHY FOG THROUGH SUNRISE DUE TO WET GROUNDS              
FROM YESTERDAYS RAINFALL. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS AND                 
STORMS ALREADY FORMING JUST S OF THE FORECAST AREA.                             
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...CLOUDINESS AND LOWER HEIGHTS WILL TRANSLATE               
INTO LOWER MAX TEMPS THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. ANTICIPATE HIGHS OF                
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. MAV POPS HAVE JUMPED UP TO 70-80% FOR TODAY             
WHICH LOOKS TOO HIGH. WILL GO CLOSER TO NAM GUIDANCE AND HAVE LOW               
END LIKELY OVER MOST AREAS. NAM SHOWS MORE THAN 2 IMPULSES AFFECTING            
THE REGION TODAY COMING IN FROM THE NW AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND             
SEA BREEZES THE LIKELY POPS SEEM REASONABLE. MODIFIED SOUNDING                  
YIELDS CAPE VALUES CLOSE TO 2500 J/G AND LI OF -6. GIVEN THE                    
RELATIVE HIGH PWAT AIR AND WEAK 0-6KM WINDS MAIN THREATS TODAY APPEAR           
TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND MARGINALLY SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS.             
IN ADDITION...STORMS DON`T LOOK TO BE AS INTENSE AS THEY WERE ON TUE            
DUE TO WARMER TEMPS AT 500 MB AND GENERALLY LOWER INSTABILITY VALUES.           
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE IMPULSES CONT TO AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT AND BEST           
DYNAMIC LIFT WILL BE OVER NE FL. WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE                    
GUIDANCE BUT LEAN A BIT TOWARD THE MAV POPS WHICH HAVE BEEN                     
CONSISTENTLY AROUND 40% FOR TONIGHT.                                            
THURSDAY...THE WEAK TROUGH THAT IS N OF THE AREA WILL BE SAGGING SWD            
AND RESULT IN CONTINUED MOISTURE POOLING OVER THE AREA...MOST                   
FAVORED OVER NE FL. WILL GO WITH POPS AROUND 40-50% OVER NE FL AND              
30-40% FOR SE GA WHICH IS A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE. TEMPS SHOULD             
BE A BIT WARMER AS HEIGHTS RISE A BIT. THU NIGHT...MID LEVEL RIDGING            
TRIES TO BUILD IN AND SFC TROUGH WILL DRIFT INTO CENTRAL GA.                    
PLANNING ON POPS AT 20-30% FOR MAINLY EVENING CONVECTION.                       
FRIDAY...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS CONT TO BUILD AS THE SE CONUS TROUGHING              
WANES. ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH FOR SCT POPS AREA WIDE...THOUGH             
LOWER CHANCES FOR SE GA WHERE WEAKER FORCING AND LOWER MOISTURE IS              
LOCATED. TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S EXPECTED WITH FEW POCKETS OF MID                
90S.                                                                            
.LONG TERM...SAT-TUE. SFC RIDGE CONTS OVER CENTRAL FL FOR THE                   
WEEKEND. LATEST GFS SHOWS ERN COAST TROUGHING TO BECOME                         
RE-ESTABLISHED WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS AND THUS SUSTAINING A CHANCE OF            
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTENDED FORECASTS. FOR NOW WILL              
KEEP POPS IN THE 30-40% RANGE EACH DAY AND SHOW JUST A SLIGHT CHANGE            
IN TEMPS MOVING CLOSE TO OR JUST BELOW CLIMO.                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...MAY SEE BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITY EARLY THIS                  
MORNING (09Z-12Z) DUE TO FOG. OTHERWISE AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON EXPECTED            
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES IN. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH             
THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IMPACTING ALL OF THE TERMINALS AND HAVE              
INCLUDED VCTS BY 18Z AND TEMPO GROUPS FOR TS AND GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN            
19Z-22Z.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...SW TO S WINDS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AS HIGH                   
PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS NEAR CENTRAL FLORIDA. NOCTURNAL SURGES AT                
NIGHT BUT BELOW SCEC CRITERIA. SEAS 2-4 FT. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE                
SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS WITH STRONG WIND POTENTIAL MOVING                    
OFFSHORE.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
AMG  91  71  93  72 /  60  30  30  20                                           
SSI  88  75  89  76 /  50  40  30  20                                           
JAX  90  71  91  73 /  60  40  40  30                                           
SGJ  87  71  88  74 /  60  40  40  30                                           
GNV  89  71  90  73 /  60  40  50  30                                           
OCF  89  71  90  72 /  60  40  50  30                                           
&&                                                                              
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
AM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHASHY/PETERSON                                                                 
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
310 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.                                           
THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHARP MID TO UPPER LEVEL                   
SHORTWAVE SPINNING JUST NORTH OF OUR GEORGIA ZONES. IN FACT...THE               
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A CLOSED 500MB CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED                 
WITH THIS FEATURE. THIS WAVE IS PROGGED TO EXPAND SOUTH THIS                    
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN INFLUENTIAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.                     
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL                  
FORECAST AREA AND AMPLE MOISTURE RESIDES THROUGH THE COLUMN. THIS               
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR STRONG AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO CARRY                  
INTO THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY EVEN AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEVERE                       
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN LARGE CAPE DENSITY                
VALUES AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT. BOTH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING                
WIND GUSTS WILL BE CONCERNS. SLOW STORM MOVEMENT WILL ALSO RESULT               
IN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOME AREAS. GIVEN THE LATEST MODEL DATA               
WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT REMAINING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...HAVE                 
DECIDED TO BUMP EVENING POPS UP A LITTLE...INTO THE 40 TO 50                    
PERCENT RANGE OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA.                                           
EAST COAST SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTH THROUGH THE LOCAL                   
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WILL ALSO                 
BRUSH THE AREA AS THEY ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF UPPER TROUGH                   
WHICH WILL BE DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. 850MB WIND                
MAXIMA WILL APPROACH 20 KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEHIND 850                   
TROUGH AND THIS WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. DEEP                      
CYCLONIC FLOW...AMPLE MOISTURE...AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL                
ALL COMBINE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS                      
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE BUT                  
DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF INSOLATION AND REALIZED INSTABILITY. CAPES               
WILL PROBABLY BE HELD MUCH BELOW TODAYS VALUES GIVEN THE EXTRA                  
CLOUD COVERAGE EXPECTED...HOWEVER...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS               
ARE A DECENT BET GIVEN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR ALOFT.                             
BY THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK IN. THE NAM                
AND GFS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS                
IS MUCH MORE BULLISH (40 TO 60 PERCENT) OPPOSED TO THE NAM                      
SOLUTION OF LESS THAN 20 PERCENT POPS. THE NAM ADVECTS IN MUCH                  
DRIER AIR BEHIND DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH AXIS IN NORTHWEST FLOW                  
ALOFT. WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE CLOSER TO THE GFS. ENOUGH MOISTURE IS              
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION              
TO INITIATE ALONG MESOSCALE (SEABREEZE/OUTFLOW) BOUNDARIES.                     
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.                                          
LATEST GFS NOW SHOWS AN INTERESTING SOLUTION FOR THE UPCOMING                   
WEEKEND. IT SHOWS THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST                    
ATTEMPTING TO DIG BACK DOWN ALL THE WAY INTO FLORIDA ONCE                       
AGAIN...WITH THE ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH IN TOW. THIS WOULD                    
RESULT IN ELEVATED CHANCES OF PRECIP WITH POPS HIGHER THAN CLIMO                
VALUES. WILL CONTINUE WITH 40 PERCENT AFTERNOON POPS FOR NOW BUT                
IF THE GFS IS CORRECT...THESE VALUES ARE LIKELY A LITTLE ON THE                 
LOW SIDE. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED                   
PERIOD.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...HAVE CONTINUED TEMPO THUNDER AT ALL SITES THRU THE                  
AFTN...WITH VCTS THRU MID TO LATE EVENING. MAY BE SOME FOG IN RECENT            
RAIN AREAS TONIGHT AND EVENING SHIFT CAN EVALUATE FURTHER FOG                   
MODIFICATIONS.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...HAVE MADE FEW CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST. WINDS AND SEAS             
SHOULD CONTINUE BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA.                                        
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
AMG  73  95  71  94 /  30  40  40  30                                           
SSI  77  92  75  89 /  40  40  40  30                                           
JAX  74  93  73  91 /  40  40  40  30                                           
SGJ  75  91  73  88 /  40  40  40  30                                           
GNV  73  91  72  90 /  50  50  40  40                                           
OCF  72  90  71  88 /  50  50  30  40                                           
&&                                                                              
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
AM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHULER/CARROLL                                                                  
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
318 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
TODAY/TONIGHT...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS FLORIDA EARLY THIS            
MORNING. A FEW LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUDS OVER THE PENINSULA...AND                 
WHILE TC DOLLY IS FAR AWAY OVER WESTERN GULF...SOME CIRRUS FROM                 
SYSTEM BEING CARRIED TOWARD FL VIA ANTICYCLONE ALOFT. LATEST WATER              
VAPOR IMAGES/RUC ANALYSIS INDICATING SOME CONFLUENCE AND DRIER AIR              
ALOFT OVER REGION AT PRESENT AND 00Z RUNS OF GFS AND ESPECIALLY NAM             
ARE INDICATING SOME LOWER PWAT AIR TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN             
SECTIONS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN MODEL POPS COMING IN LOWER THAN                  
PREVIOUS RUNS. WEAK WIND FIELDS WILL ALLOW SEA AND LAKE BREEZES TO              
FORM WITH DAYTIME HEATING. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK VORT ENERGY            
ROTATING DOWN BACK SIDE OF ATLANTIC TROF LATER TODAY TO HELP AID IN             
STORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE DISTRIBUTED POPS               
FROM SLGT CHC/ISOLATED NORTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS TO LOW END CHC/SCT             
REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO EARLY               
EVENING OVER THE INTERIOR. MORE WARM TEMPS ON TAP WITH SOME MID 90S             
EXPECTED AGAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS WHILE SEA BREEZE ONSET              
SHOULD CAP MAXES NEAR THE EAST COAST IN THE LOWER 90S.                          
WED-MON...VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW THAT IS                 
WOBBLING ABOUT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO/QUEBEC REGION WILL PUSH            
THE SURFACE RIDGE/WEAK HIGH PRESSURE UP AND DOWN THE PENINSULA. JUST            
HOW FAR THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND EACH DAY REMAINS A BIT TENUOUS.            
TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTION RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELD(S) SHOWED MOST OF             
THE MOISTURE BELOW 700MB FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THEREFORE              
WENT WITH CLIMO POP  OF 30/40 DURING THE AFTERNOON AND 20S OVERNIGHT            
WHICH DID NOT STRAY FAR FROM LATEST EXTENDED (MEX MOS) GUIDANCE.                
TEMPERATURES AROUND THEIR NORMAL HIGHS OF LOW 90S INLAND AND UPPER              
80S ALONG THE COAST DUE TO SEA BREEZE STOPPING DAY TIME HEATING...              
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH ~18Z THEN TSRA PRODUCING CIG/VSBY REDUCTIONS            
THROUGH 00Z WILL BE MORE COMMON INTERIOR TAF SITES AND HAVE TEMPO               
INDICATED INLAND SITES VERSUS A VCTS OR PROB30 EAST COAST LOCATIONS.            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTS IN LIGHT/MODERATE WINDS                
WITH DAILY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS BEGINNING BY MID AFTERNOON EACH              
DAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS WITH            
SOME SEA BREEZE ENHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SEAS            
ON THE AVERAGE 3 FEET OR LESS. LONG PERIOD SWELLS STILL NOTED AT                
OFFSHORE BUOYS AND WILL KEEP RIP CURRENT RISK ELEVATED AGAIN TODAY.             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DAB  93  74  89  72 /  20  20  40  20                                           
MCO  93  74  90  73 /  30  20  40  20                                           
MLB  89  73  89  71 /  30  20  30  20                                           
VRB  90  74  89  73 /  30  10  30  20                                           
&&                                                                              
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
AM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...GLITTO                                                    
LONG TERM....WIMMER                                                             
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
127 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN INLAND TONIGHT...BUT WILL                  
SHIFT CLOSER TO THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A                 
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL             
NEAR THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL                 
THEN PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                              
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...                                         
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO THE GEORGIA ZONES FROM THE                
SOUTHWEST...SO I HAD TO UPDATE THE GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS A BIT                
EARLY. I RAISED POPS IN THE GEORGIA ZONES AND LOWERED THEM IN THE               
SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. LATEST RUC                  
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE THREAT FOR RAIN IN GEORGIA WILL GO ON UNTIL               
MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER BEFORE WINDING DOWN...AND THIS                   
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY STILL AVAILABLE                
THERE.                                                                          
I ALSO HAD TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EVENING TEMPS AND                    
CLOUDS RELATED TO THE CONVECTION.                                               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...                        
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE              
IT APPEARS THAT A LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL SHIFT CLOSER TO THE COAST                
SOUTH OF THE FRONT. DEEPER MOISTURE AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE                    
TROUGH/FRONT WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION                  
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...GENERALLY AROUND 40 PERCENT                  
ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 2-2.25                  
INCHES COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH THE LOSS OF                 
HEATING...EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO                   
DIMINISH SOME WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY SHOULD               
BE IN THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST...WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT               
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                  
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS                      
CONCERNING THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON                
THURSDAY. 12Z GFS KEEPS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH AND                   
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW OVER THE AREA. 12Z NAM PUSHES THE COLD                   
FRONT TO THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL BORDER BY THURSDAY                  
MORNING...BEFORE STALLING IT OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA BY THURSDAY                  
NIGHT. LATEST ECMWF RUN SHOWS A SIMILAR STALLED FRONT TO THE                    
GFS...BUT ALLOWS DEEPER LAYER DRY AIR TO PUSH INTO THE REGION                   
WITHIN THE INLAND SURFACE TROUGH. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE MORE                     
SEASONAL SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE GFS. HAVE MAINTAINED SOUTHERLY                
WINDS ON THURSDAY...WITH POPS IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE                
AFTERNOON...WHEN INSTABILITY AND SEABREEZE FORCING WILL BE                      
MAXIMIZED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN                  
WEDNESDAY...REACHING THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST.                         
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES                    
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHILE UPPER TROUGHING REMAINS OVER               
THE NORTHEAST STATES. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ALONG               
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS UPPER LEVEL                 
ENERGY WILL KEEP A SUFFICIENT MOISTURE PROFILE TO SPARK CONVECTION              
WITHIN THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE FORCING. WILL THUS CONTINUE TO                   
REPRESENT A MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL POP SCHEME OF A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS              
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO NO MORE THAN A                
SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT.                                                        
GFS AMPLIFIES THE UPPER LEVEL ACTIVITY BY LATE SUNDAY...AS ANOTHER              
WEAK SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE APPEARS TO              
BE SOME TIMING AND SENSIBLE WEATHER DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF               
AND GFS SOLUTIONS THAT LEND UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS FOR LATE                 
WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME. HAVE OPTED TO                      
CONTINUE WITH A MORE GENERAL CONVECTIVE FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS                 
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...UNTIL MORE CONSISTENT TRENDS ARE SEEN IN             
THE MODEL FORECASTS.                                                            
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES            
OF SEASONAL NORMS...WARMING INTO THE LOWER 90S EACH AFTERNOON.                  
HEAT INDICES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 103 DEGREES THROUGH THE                
WEEKEND...WITH INDICES AS HIGH AS 105 IN SOME AREAS BY EARLY NEXT               
WEEK.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                     
KCHS - WE ARE CAREFULLY MONITORING VISIBILITY TRENDS EARLY THIS                 
MORNING. DEWPOINTS HAVE POOLED INTO THE MID 70S WITH FAIRLY LIGHT               
WINDS. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR WITH               
THINNING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS HIGH CLOUDINESS REMAINING WEST AND                   
NORTH OF THE TERMINAL. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT SHALLOW GROUND               
FOG MAY TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO HIGH END MVFR BETWEEN                
08Z-11Z. ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF AFTER 13Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS            
PREVAILING. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE               
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE JUST NORTH OF THE TERMINAL BY LATE MORNING                 
OR EARLY AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY FORMING FARTHER                     
INLAND. WILL CARRY A MENTION OF CB/S FROM 16Z-21Z TO HOLD FOR NOW.              
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL LATER THIS EVENING                
IF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDLANDS ORGANIZES AND MAKES               
A RUN FOR THE COAST.                                                            
KSAV - CONVECTIVE DEBRIS HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL TEND TO THIN OUT                  
WITH TIME BUT SHOULD REMAIN PREVALENT ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FOG                    
FORMATION AT THE TERMINAL THIS MORNING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO                
PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS              
WILL LIKELY FIRE AHEAD OF THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL                 
CARRY A MENTION OF CB/S FROM 20Z-01Z TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY.                 
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS EACH MORNING                 
DUE TO HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS...OTHERWISE VFR                  
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
FAIRLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. THE MARINE                  
ZONES WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH                     
PRESSURE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT                   
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KNOTS                     
OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WITH SEAS AT OR BELOW 4                  
FEET.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ga                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
215 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
335 AM CDT                                                                      
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND THEN ATTENTION              
WILL SHIFT TO NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR LATE THURSDAY                           
AFTERNOON...AND ESPECIALLY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.                                 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSES INDICATING LAST IN SERIES OF                   
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH SOUTHERN LOWER                
MICHIGAN/NORTHERN INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE                
TROUGH ACROSS JAMES BAY IS ROTATING BACK WESTWARD AROUND THE                    
LONGWAVE TROUGH...BUT THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THIS VORT WILL KEEP IT              
WELL EAST OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONE                    
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE INTO WESTERN GREAT              
LAKES TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRENGTHENING INVERSION IN              
THE 800-750 HPA LAYER THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN               
STRENGTHENING SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS AFOREMENTIONED              
VORT MAX TODAY. WITH RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS/SUBSIDENCE...CU                  
COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED TODAY AND FORMING MOSTLY LIKELY AWAY                 
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS SUGGEST HIGHS TODAY IN              
THE BALLPARK FROM YESTERDAY...PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN MOST              
LOCATIONS GIVEN SLIGHTLY DEEPER MIXED LAYER TODAY. NORTH WINDS                  
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LAKE COOLING AND HIGHS NEAR THE LAKE                   
MICHIGAN SHORELINE SHOULD ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO MID 70S. ELSEWHERE               
HIGH TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 80 ARE EXPECTED.                                    
DECOUPLING WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING...AND WITH A RELATIVELY DRY            
AIR MASS IN PLACE TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF FAIRLY SHARPLY EARLY               
THIS EVENING WITH A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP. HAVE CONTINUED              
IDEA OF MID TO UPPER 50S FOR LOWS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME LOCALLY               
COOLER READINGS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE 50 TO 55 DEGREE RANGE. ATTENTION            
FOR THURSDAY WILL THEN SHIFT TO INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE SETUP FOR                
PRECIPITATION. MOISTURE PROFILE WILL BE INITIALLY QUITE MEAGER                  
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY AND GIVEN FAIRLY LARGE AMPLITUDE                 
TROUGH TO THE EAST...THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL BE RATHER SLOW TO EXIT.            
NAM OVER PAST FEW DAYS HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLY FASTER IN BRINGING                 
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS               
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. HOWEVER LATEST FEW RUNS OF NAM ARE                     
SEEMINGLY COMING AROUND TO MORE OF A GFS IDEA IN A SLOWER ONSET OF              
WAA/THETA-E ADVECTION FORCING. HAVE CONTINUED TO FOLLOW GFS IDEA                
WITH BRINGING HIGHER CHANCE POPS INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY                      
THURSDAY EVENING. DID MAINTAIN SOME LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR                  
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH ANY               
INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE ELEVATED AND INITIAL WAA/MID LEVEL                    
FRONTO FORCING WILL LIKELY BE SPENT WITH IN LOW/MID LEVEL                       
SATURATION. CONCERN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT MAY END UP BEING MORE                    
TOWARD HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WITH PWATS INCREASING BACK INTO                 
THE 1.75 TO 2.00 INCH RANGE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN                  
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LARGER SCALE PATTERN DOES APPEAR TO CONTINUE              
TO FAVOR SOUTHEAST PROPAGATION OF ANY MCS THAT FORMS TO THE WEST                
THURSDAY EVENING...SO NORTH-SOUTH POP GRADIENT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT               
SEEMS APPROPRIATE AT THIS TIME. DID CONTEMPLATE GOING WITH LIKELY               
POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH BUT AT THIS DISTANCE HAVE INCREASED TO                
HIGHER END CHANCE POPS. WITH MAIN LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE                       
REMAINING OFF TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL                
LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE ON THE WEAK SIDE AND INSTABILITY PROGS AT                 
THIS TIME DO NOT SEEM SUPPORTIVE OF A SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER                
THREAT.                                                                         
ON FRIDAY...DETAILS ON PRECIP POTENTIAL BECOME MORE BLURRY DUE TO               
THE EFFECTS OF THURSDAY NIGHT CONVECTION ON MESOSCALE FACTORS.                  
GFS/NAM ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN WEAK SFC TROUGH APPROACHING                 
FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS DURING THE AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH AN                   
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. MAY                
ALSO HAVE ANOTHER BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH LEFT OVER FROM OVERNIGHT                
CONVECTION. MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY ALSO IN QUESTION DEPENDING IN              
EXTENT OF REMNANT CLOUD COVER. GIVEN ALL THESE                                  
UNCERTAINTIES...MAINTENANCE OF BROADBRUSH LOW END CHANCE POPS                   
STILL SEEM IN ORDER FOR FRIDAY. MAIN SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKELY                  
STALL OUT SOMEWHERE JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY AS              
MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING RACES EAST INTO THE NORTHEAST US.                  
LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER ADDING LOW POPS ACROSS THE                 
SOUTH FOR FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN                 
TOWARD MODEL CONSENSUS WITH A DRY SATURDAY WITH EXPECTATION MORE                
FAVORED PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA. NO CHANGES TO                 
REMAINDER OF EXTENDED WITH BEST CHANCE OF MCS DEVELOPMENT LIKELY                
REMAINING SOUTH OF THE AREA GIVEN LITTLE CHANGE IN LARGE SCALE                  
WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN AND SFC BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE              
AREA.                                                                           
MARSILI                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
18Z TAFS...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THRU THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH                   
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH                    
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST                
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKES AND OH VALLEY THURSDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS               
10-15KTS WILL DIMINISH UNDER 10KTS EARLY THIS EVENING THEN BECOME               
CALM AT MOST LOCATIONS BY LATE EVENING. GRADIENT HAS SUPPORTED A                
FEW HIGHER GUSTS TO 18-20KTS. NOT SURE HOW LONG THESE WILL LAST                 
BUT HAVE AMENDED ORD TO INCLUDE GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL                   
WATCH OTHER TAFS FOR PREVAILING GUSTS. A FEW HIGH BASED CU TODAY                
THEN THIN CIRRUS INCREASING TONIGHT AND SCT/BKN MID CLOUDS                      
THURSDAY MORNING. CMS                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
215 PM...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM ONTARIO SOUTH ACROSS                  
THE WESTERN LAKES. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS IT                  
SLOWLY WEAKENS...REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE                
NEAR THE U.S. AND CANADIAN BORDER WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS                    
NORTHERN ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL                 
DEVELOP BETWEEN THIS LOW AND THE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL CONTINUE              
TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY. A WEAK TRAILING               
COLD FRONT WILL TURN WINDS WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY NIGHT               
INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES. CMS                                     
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ740-             
     LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                              
1157 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED FOR 06 UTC AVIATION.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO TONGUE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BRING A                
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN                
ISOLATED AND NOT WORTHY OF TAF MENTION. THIS MOISTURE WILL BRING                
SOME CONCERN FOR LOWERED VISIBILITIES BUT BELIEVE WIND SPEEDS NEAR              
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE ENOUGH OF KEEP THEM AT VFR LEVELS.                   
CONVECTIVE THREAT NOT ZERO FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT                  
WELL TO LOW FOR INCLUSION AT THIS POINT.                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 344 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008/                        
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF I70 AT 20Z.  MESOANALYSES SHOW              
SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG BOUNDARY...AND WEAK CAP.  DEWPOINTS              
HAVE POOLED JUST NORTH OF FRONT...WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES NEAR 4000              
J/KG.  HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION HAS FIRED AND NOTHING                
APPEARS IMMINENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.                                          
RUC ANALYSIS AND PROFILER WINDS SHOWS WEAK VORT MAX OVER ERN                    
NEBRASKA MOVING SE.  HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS              
MISSOURI MCS HAS HELPED WITH OVERALL CONVECTIVE SUPPRESSION.  WITH              
BOUNDARY REMAINING IN AREA...EXPECT ISOLATED CONVECTION TO STILL BE             
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS WEAK POSITIVE 850 MB THETA-E                 
ADVECTION CONTINUES.  POPS KEPT AOB 20 PERCENT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.           
RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS ACROSS ERN KS SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE            
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  ON WEDNESDAY...GFS MOS GUIDANCE WARMER THAN            
NAM OR NGM AND HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THIS BASED ON RECENT PERFORMANCE.            
PHILLIPS                                                                        
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL                   
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES            
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WEDNESDAY               
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR                    
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AS WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT            
INCREASES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT             
BEING UNDER THE 5H RIDGE AXIS MAY INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF                    
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE 5H TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN              
HIGH PLAINS THEN DIGS SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES...A WEAK COLD              
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NE AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL KS DURING            
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SFC CONVERGENCE FOR                    
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE                 
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS ON THURSDAY MAY BE             
CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL                      
CWA...WITH LOWER 90S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE CWA. THE              
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA                   
PROVIDING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS                 
THURSDAY NIGHT.                                                                 
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD              
AND STALL OUT AND WEAKEN ALONG I-70. THE 5H TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST             
WILL DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES STATES. BOTH THE ECMWF AND              
GFS SHOW THE SOUTHERN PLAINS 5H RIDGE RE-AMPLIFYING. SYNOPTIC SCALE             
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE 5H RIDGE SHOULD CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT                      
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION...BUT I CANNOT RULE OUT PULSE             
STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG OR NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY DURING THE LATE                
AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY...GIVEN DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG SFC HEATING.            
THEREFORE...I KEPT A 14 POP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND 15 POPS FRIDAY            
EVENING. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES MAY ONLY REACH               
THE LOWER TO MID 90S NORTH OF THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY. SOUTH OF THE               
SFC BOUNDARY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S...POSSIBLY NEAR 100                 
DEGREES OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. ON SATURDAY BOTH THE             
ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE 5H RIDGE AXIS RETROGRADING INTO THE WEST                 
CENTRAL CONUS AS A LONGER WAVE LENGTH 5H TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN                
CONUS AMPLIFIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AS               
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS WEST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.                
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA.                
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS KEEP A                  
LONGER WAVE LENGTH 5H TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND A BROAD 5H            
RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL CONUS. THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE                    
AMPLIFIED WITH THE 5H TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...AND BRINGS A              
COLD FRONT SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CWA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WOULD            
PROVIDE THE CWA WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS               
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS NOT AS                
AMPLIFIED WITH THE EASTERN CONUS 5H TROUGH AND KEEPS THE FRONT                  
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS EASTERN NE...SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN MO. IF             
THE GFS WERE TO VERIFY THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NORTH AND              
EAST OF THE CWA. THEREFORE...I PLACED IN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR                     
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA.               
THE ECMWF MODEL FORECAST SHOWS THE FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO                  
NORTHERN OK MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND THE GFS MODEL SOLUTION KEEPS               
THE FRONT NORTHEAST OF THE CWA...THEREFORE I KEPT POPS AT 14 PERCENT            
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL ONLY                
REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S...SINCE THE 5H RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT                 
FARTHER WEST. HIGH MAY BE A BIT COOLER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY IF THE              
ECMWF SOLUTION WERE TO VERIFY BRING THE SFC COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST                
ACROSS THE CWA.                                                                 
GARGAN                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
65                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
1054 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
714 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                      
JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO REMOVE PRECIPITATION.              
CAP IS STRENGTHENING OVER THE AREA AND IS ALREADY STRONG ON TOP OF              
OUR STATIONARY FRONT. ALSO HEIGHTS/RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA                 
WITH LITTLE IF ANY LIFT NOTED ON SATELLITE. ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER                
TO ACCOUNT FOR MUCH LESS IN THE EVENING AND MORE OVERNIGHT. KEPT                
THE AREAS OF FOG IN EVEN THOUGH NAM/RUC NOT AS AGGRESSIVE TONIGHT               
WITH FOG FORMATION. HOWEVER...MODELS UNDERDID MOISTURE ADVECTION                
LAST NIGHT AND HAVE DECENT UPSLOPE FLOW. OTHERWISE DID MINOR                    
TWEEKS ON OTHER ELEMENTS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.                               
BULLER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON EXTENT OF FOG TONIGHT                    
FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE NEXT 7                   
DAYS.                                                                           
STATIONARY BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE                        
INTERSTATE AND WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS                
THIS EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT FOG WILL REDEVELOP AND BASED ON THE                
NAM (WHICH ACTUALLY VERIFIED THIS WELL ON YESTERDAYS MODEL RUN)                 
WILL COVER THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE AREA THROUGH 15Z OR SO BEFORE               
LIFTING NORTHEAST AND DISSIPATING.                                              
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE A               
BIT WHILE ALSO FLATTENING OUT ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASED CHANCE OF               
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND WESTERN PARTS OF                
THE AREA.                                                                       
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOT AGAIN WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND            
100 BUT A VERY SLIGHT COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED AS INCREASING                   
CLOUDINESS WITH THE DEAMPLIFIED TROUGH MOVES IN. BY THURSDAY LOW                
TO MID 90S ARE EXPECTED.                                                        
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A GENERAL BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDS                   
SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY WITH                         
TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 90S. TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF YEAR                 
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WITHOUT A STRONG              
SIGN OR AGREEMENT ON ANY DISTURBANCES TO KICK THEM OFF WILL                     
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.                                                    
DDT                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
1048 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                     
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...FRONT HAS SAGGED FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST SINCE                
00Z...AND HAS MOVED PASSED KGLD. NAM/RUC HAVE STARTED TO INDICATE               
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND LOWER CEILINGS WITH NEWER RUNS. OF                  
HIGHER PROBABILITY TO SEE MVFR/IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL BE                
KMCK. KGLD APPEARS TO BE ON THE EDGE OF THE FOG AND STRATUS.                    
HOWEVER...BELIEVE THE MODELS ARE NOT FAR ENOUGH WEST. WILL HIT THE              
STRATUS HARDER HERE THAN THE FOG. SINCE KGLD APPEARS TO BE ON THE               
EDGE...CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES COULD BE HIGHLY VARIABLE. SOUTHERLY                
WILL INCREASE INTO THE BREEZY CATEGORY BY 18Z. AT THIS TIME...ANY               
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOOK TO                 
STAY TO THE WEST OF BOTH TAF SITES.                                             
BULLER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
553 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON EXTENT OF FOG TONIGHT                    
FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE NEXT 7                   
DAYS.                                                                           
STATIONARY BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE                        
INTERSTATE AND WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS                
THIS EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT FOG WILL REDEVELOP AND BASED ON THE                
NAM (WHICH ACTUALLY VERIFIED THIS WELL ON YESTERDAYS MODEL RUN)                 
WILL COVER THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE AREA THROUGH 15Z OR SO BEFORE               
LIFTING NORTHEAST AND DISSIPATING.                                              
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE A               
BIT WHILE ALSO FLATTENING OUT ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASED CHANCE OF               
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND WESTERN PARTS OF                
THE AREA.                                                                       
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOT AGAIN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND              
100 BUT A VERY SLIGHT COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED AS INCREASING                   
CLOUDINESS WITH THE DEAMPLIFIED TROUGH MOVES IN. BY THURSDAY LOW                
TO MID 90S ARE EXPECTED.                                                        
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A GENERAL BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDS                   
SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY WITH                         
TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 90S. TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF YEAR                 
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WITHOUT A STRONG              
SIGN OR AGREEMENT ON ANY DISTURBANCES TO KICK THEM OFF WILL                     
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.                                                    
DDT                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
542 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                      
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...CURRENTLY HAVE STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED FROM                  
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE FORECAST AREA.                  
WOULD THINK THIS WOULD BE A GOOD FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER               
PER LAPS AND SATELLITE...LOW LEVEL AIR MASS APPEARS TO BE CAPPED                
ESPECIALLY ON TOP OF THE FRONT. LITTLE IF ANY LIFT IN PLACE ALOFT               
AND ONLY GETS WORSE WITH RISING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE EVENING. AS A               
RESULT AM PESSIMISTIC ABOUT ANY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. LEFT THE              
MENTION OF CB IN THE KMCK TAF SINCE IT IS CLOSEST TO THE FRONT.                 
NEXT PROBLEM WILL BE HOW MUCH STRATUS AND FOG REDEVELOP TONIGHT.                
WITH FRONT AND EASTERLY WINDS TO STAY IN PLACE...WOULD THINK THAT               
A REPEAT IS IN STORE. BUT EVEN THE NAM/RUC WHICH GOT IT RIGHT LAST              
NIGHT IS NOT SHOWING ANY REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY. MADE THE KGLD                
TAF MORE OPTIMISTIC...AND PUT THE LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY                 
AT THE KMCK TAF. WILL HAVE TO FINE TUNE THESE WITH THE NEXT ISSUANCE.           
BULLER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                              
635 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED FOR 00 UTC AVIATION.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
PRESENCE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...A WEAK UPPER WAVE...AND PLENTY OF              
INSTABILITY SUGGEST SOME CONVECTIVE CONCERNS FOR THE TERMINALS.                 
WILL GO WITH CB FOR THE EARLY EVENING UNTIL INSTABILITY WANES AS                
THE CHANCES OF A TS IN THE AERODROMES SEEM REMOTE. WINDS SHOULD                 
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND EASTERLY...WITH AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS BY                 
LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE              
00Z CYCLE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF I70 AT 20Z.  MESOANALYSES SHOW              
SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG BOUNDARY...AND WEAK CAP.  DEWPOINTS              
HAVE POOLED JUST NORTH OF FRONT...WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES NEAR 4000              
J/KG.  HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION HAS FIRED AND NOTHING                
APPEARS IMMINENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.                                          
RUC ANALYSIS AND PROFILER WINDS SHOWS WEAK VORT MAX OVER ERN                    
NEBRASKA MOVING SE.  HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS              
MISSOURI MCS HAS HELPED WITH OVERALL CONVECTIVE SUPPRESSION.  WITH              
BOUNDARY REMAINING IN AREA...EXPECT ISOLATED CONVECTION TO STILL BE             
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS WEAK POSITIVE 850 MB THETA-E                 
ADVECTION CONTINUES.  POPS KEPT AOB 20 PERCENT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.           
RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS ACROSS ERN KS SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE            
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  ON WEDNESDAY...GFS MOS GUIDANCE WARMER THAN            
NAM OR NGM AND HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THIS BASED ON RECENT PERFORMANCE.            
PHILLIPS                                                                        
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL                   
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES            
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WEDNESDAY               
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR                    
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AS WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT            
INCREASES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT             
BEING UNDER THE 5H RIDGE AXIS MAY INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF                    
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE 5H TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN              
HIGH PLAINS THEN DIGS SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES...A WEAK COLD              
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NE AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL KS DURING            
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SFC CONVERGENCE FOR                    
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE                 
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS ON THURSDAY MAY BE             
CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL                      
CWA...WITH LOWER 90S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE CWA. THE              
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA                   
PROVIDING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS                 
THURSDAY NIGHT.                                                                 
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD              
AND STALL OUT AND WEAKEN ALONG I-70. THE 5H TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST             
WILL DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES STATES. BOTH THE ECMWF AND              
GFS SHOW THE SOUTHERN PLAINS 5H RIDGE RE-AMPLIFYING. SYNOPTIC SCALE             
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE 5H RIDGE SHOULD CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT                      
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION...BUT I CANNOT RULE OUT PULSE             
STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG OR NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY DURING THE LATE                
AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY...GIVEN DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG SFC HEATING.            
THEREFORE...I KEPT A 14 POP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND 15 POPS FRIDAY            
EVENING. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES MAY ONLY REACH               
THE LOWER TO MID 90S NORTH OF THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY. SOUTH OF THE               
SFC BOUNDARY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S...POSSIBLY NEAR 100                 
DEGREES OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. ON SATURDAY BOTH THE             
ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE 5H RIDGE AXIS RETROGRADING INTO THE WEST                 
CENTRAL CONUS AS A LONGER WAVE LENGTH 5H TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN                
CONUS AMPLIFIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AS               
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS WEST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.                
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA.                
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS KEEP A                  
LONGER WAVE LENGTH 5H TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND A BROAD 5H            
RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL CONUS. THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE                    
AMPLIFIED WITH THE 5H TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...AND BRINGS A              
COLD FRONT SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CWA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WOULD            
PROVIDE THE CWA WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS               
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS NOT AS                
AMPLIFIED WITH THE EASTERN CONUS 5H TROUGH AND KEEPS THE FRONT                  
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS EASTERN NE...SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN MO. IF             
THE GFS WERE TO VERIFY THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NORTH AND              
EAST OF THE CWA. THEREFORE...I PLACED IN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR                     
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA.               
THE ECMWF MODEL FORECAST SHOWS THE FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO                  
NORTHERN OK MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND THE GFS MODEL SOLUTION KEEPS               
THE FRONT NORTHEAST OF THE CWA...THEREFORE I KEPT POPS AT 14 PERCENT            
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL ONLY                
REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S...SINCE THE 5H RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT                 
FARTHER WEST. HIGH MAY BE A BIT COOLER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY IF THE              
ECMWF SOLUTION WERE TO VERIFY BRING THE SFC COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST                
ACROSS THE CWA.                                                                 
GARGAN                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
65                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                              
344 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF I70 AT 20Z.  MESOANALYSES SHOW              
SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG BOUNDARY...AND WEAK CAP.  DEWPOINTS              
HAVE POOLED JUST NORTH OF FRONT...WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES NEAR 4000              
J/KG.  HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION HAS FIRED AND NOTHING                
APPEARS IMMINENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.                                          
RUC ANALYSIS AND PROFILER WINDS SHOWS WEAK VORT MAX OVER ERN                    
NEBRASKA MOVING SE.  HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS              
MISSOURI MCS HAS HELPED WITH OVERALL CONVECTIVE SUPPRESSION.  WITH              
BOUNDARY REMAINING IN AREA...EXPECT ISOLATED CONVECTION TO STILL BE             
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS WEAK POSITIVE 850 MB THETA-E                 
ADVECTION CONTINUES.  POPS KEPT AOB 20 PERCENT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.           
RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS ACROSS ERN KS SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE            
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  ON WEDNESDAY...GFS MOS GUIDANCE WARMER THAN            
NAM OR NGM AND HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THIS BASED ON RECENT PERFORMANCE.            
PHILLIPS                                                                        
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL                   
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES            
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WEDNESDAY               
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR                    
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AS WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT            
INCREASES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT             
BEING UNDER THE 5H RIDGE AXIS MAY INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF                    
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE 5H TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN              
HIGH PLAINS THEN DIGS SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES...A WEAK COLD              
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NE AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL KS DURING            
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SFC CONVERGENCE FOR                    
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE                 
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS ON THURSDAY MAY BE             
CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL                      
CWA...WITH LOWER 90S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE CWA. THE              
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA                   
PROVIDING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS                 
THURSDAY NIGHT.                                                                 
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD              
AND STALL OUT AND WEAKEN ALONG I-70. THE 5H TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST             
WILL DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES STATES. BOTH THE ECMWF AND              
GFS SHOW THE SOUTHERN PLAINS 5H RIDGE RE-AMPLIFYING. SYNOPTIC SCALE             
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE 5H RIDGE SHOULD CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT                      
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION...BUT I CANNOT RULE OUT PULSE             
STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG OR NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY DURING THE LATE                
AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY...GIVEN DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG SFC HEATING.            
THEREFORE...I KEPT A 14 POP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND 15 POPS FRIDAY            
EVENING. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES MAY ONLY REACH               
THE LOWER TO MID 90S NORTH OF THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY. SOUTH OF THE               
SFC BOUNDARY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S...POSSIBLY NEAR 100                 
DEGREES OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. ON SATURDAY BOTH THE             
ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE 5H RIDGE AXIS RETROGRADING INTO THE WEST                 
CENTRAL CONUS AS A LONGER WAVE LENGTH 5H TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN                
CONUS AMPLIFIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AS               
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS WEST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.                
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA.                
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS KEEP A                  
LONGER WAVE LENGTH 5H TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND A BROAD 5H            
RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL CONUS. THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE                    
AMPLIFIED WITH THE 5H TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...AND BRINGS A              
COLD FRONT SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CWA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WOULD            
PROVIDE THE CWA WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS               
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS NOT AS                
AMPLIFIED WITH THE EASTERN CONUS 5H TROUGH AND KEEPS THE FRONT                  
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS EASTERN NE...SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN MO. IF             
THE GFS WERE TO VERIFY THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NORTH AND              
EAST OF THE CWA. THEREFORE...I PLACED IN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR                     
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA.               
THE ECMWF MODEL FORECAST SHOWS THE FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO                  
NORTHERN OK MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND THE GFS MODEL SOLUTION KEEPS               
THE FRONT NORTHEAST OF THE CWA...THEREFORE I KEPT POPS AT 14 PERCENT            
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL ONLY                
REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S...SINCE THE 5H RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT                 
FARTHER WEST. HIGH MAY BE A BIT COOLER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY IF THE              
ECMWF SOLUTION WERE TO VERIFY BRING THE SFC COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST                
ACROSS THE CWA.                                                                 
GARGAN                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FEW WEAK ELEVATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS MORNING HAVE MOSTLY                    
DISSIPATED. EASTERLY WINDS IN EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KS KEEPING             
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. ATMOSPHERE DOES DESTABILIZE            
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.              
ISOLATED TSTMS AGAIN POSSIBLE AND HAVE KEPT VCTS IN KTOP/KFOE TAFS.             
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED EAST             
TO NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.                       
STARK                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PHILLIPS/GARGAN/STARK                                                           
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                              
1208 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED FOR 18 UTC AVIATION                                                     
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FEW WEAK ELEVATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS MORNING HAVE MOSTLY                    
DISSIPATED. EASTERLY WINDS IN EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KS KEEPING             
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. ATMOSPHERE DOES DESTABILIZE            
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.              
ISOLATED TSTMS AGAIN POSSIBLE AND HAVE KEPT VCTS IN KTOP/KFOE TAFS.             
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED EAST             
TO NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. STARK                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
08Z WATER VAPOR SHOWS A TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND            
THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST U.S. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED                
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND EXTENDED NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH              
PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MID WEST WAS ROTATING              
THROUGH IA WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER MN.                                      
ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A MOISTURE AXIS BETWEEN 800             
AND 700MB FROM SOUTHEAST NEB INTO NORTHERN MO. ISENTROPIC LIFT ON               
THE 310K SFC DEPICTED BY THE RUC SHOWS THIS NARROW CORRIDOR OF                  
MOISTURE REMAINING JUST NORTHEAST OF BROWN COUNTY. GFS ALSO KEEPS               
ITS QPF JUST TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH THE RUC SHOWING SOME DRYER AIR              
OVER CENTRAL KS...THINK BULK OF ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL REMAIN JUST            
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MOST OF THE LIFT OVERHEAD            
GOING INTO SATURATING PARCELS AS THEY LIFT INTO NORTHERN MO.                    
NEVERTHELESS WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS THROUGH 12Z. AFTER 12Z...LEFT               
LOOKS TO DIMINISH AND PRECIP MAY BE PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST.                    
FOR THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE                
CHARACTERIZED AS CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE WITH NO REAL FORCING TO                 
SPEAK OF AS THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS JUST TO THE WEST OVER THE HIGH              
PLAINS. WHILE MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE NOT OVERWHELMING IN TERMS OF A                
CAP...WEAK LOW LEVEL CAA WITH THE EASTERLY WIND WILL PREVENT THE                
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM MIXING AS DEEP AS IT HAS THE PAST COUPLE DAYS               
OVER EASTERN KS WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO POOL. SO THE            
QUESTION IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH HEATING AND LOW LEVEL                  
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT TO ALLOW A STORM TO DEVELOP. IN GENERAL             
DO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT TO REMOVE POPS GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY            
THERE COULD BE WITH DEWPOINTS POOLING AROUND 70 DEGREES. KEPT SOME              
CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON OVER EAST CENTRAL KS WHERE THE BOUNDARY              
AND GREATEST INSTABILITY SHOULD BE CO-LOCATED. FOR TONIGHT THROUGH              
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FELT CHANCE POPS WERE A LITTLE OVERDONE GIVEN LITTLE            
IF ANY FORCING PROGGED BY THE MODELS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR               
THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED CONVECTION TO FORM. BY WEDNESDAY...THE              
BOUNDARY SHOULD BEGIN TO WASH OUT AND PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD SHIFT               
BACK NORTH. HIGHS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS EASTERN KS SHOULD BE               
COOLER GIVEN THE DIMINISHED MIXING AND THE EASTERLY WINDS. PARTS OF             
NORTH CENTRAL KS AHEAD OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY SHOULD STILL REACH THE              
UPPER 90S.                                                                      
FORECAST REMAINS IN TACT FOR THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE GFS LOOKS             
TO SUFFER FROM FEEDBACK ISSUES ON THURSDAY WITH A CONVECTIVELY                  
INDUCED VORT MAX PROPAGATING ACROSS NORTHEAST KS DURING THE DAY.                
HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THIS SO MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.                
UNCERTAINTY IN SFC FEATURES FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND PRECLUDED ANY            
CHANGES.                                                                        
WOLTERS                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
1039 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WANE AS BETTER ISENTROPIC              
LIFT IN THE 310K LAYER MOVES TO THE EAST INTO MISSOURI.  THE WEAK               
CONVECTION NEAR COUNCIL GROVE IS STILL SOMEWHAT ROOTED ON THE TAIL              
END OF THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL MO. SHORT TERM            
MODELS STILL SHOWS LOTS OF ML CAPE (3000-3500 J/KG) ACROSS ERN KS               
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME UNSTABLE AIR              
BELOW 700H. BUT WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL PROBABLY KEEP CONVECTION FROM             
REGENERATING OR BECOMING WIDESPREAD AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THIS                  
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY.  COULD STILL SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA            
NEAR THE ALLEN AND WILSON CO LINE....SO WILL KEEP A LOW POP FOR THIS            
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  WILL ALSO LEAVE A LOW POP INTO SOUTHEAST             
KS FOR THE EVENING HOURS AS WELL...AS BACKDOOR SURFACE BOUNDARY                 
DRIFTS SOUTHWEST INTO THIS AREA.  STILL SOME CONCERN ABOUT MID LEVEL            
CAP KEEPING CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING SO WILL KEEP POP IN THE                  
SLIGHT CATEGORY FOR NOW.                                                        
THE MAIN CONCERN ELSEWHERE WILL BE HOT TEMPS. SOME AREAS WILL                   
APPROACH THE CENTURY MARK ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL KS WHERE                    
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL LEAD TO A NICE DIURNAL TEMP SWING WITH                  
SOME HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 105.                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 18Z TAF SUITE.                                                          
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST TAF SITES...WITH THE MAIN               
CONCERN BEING THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING NEAR THE KCNU TAF SITE.  WILL              
KEEP SOME MID LEVEL CEILING MENTIONED IN THIS AREA...AS WANING                  
CONVECTION STAYS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THIS AREA.  WILL NOT INCLUDE A            
VCTS MENTION EITHER FOR NEAR KCNU...BUT COULD SEE THIS ADDED LATER.             
KETCHAM                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
AVIATION...                                                                     
12Z TAF ISSUANCE:                                                               
SCT ACCAS CONTS TO DEVELOP OVER C & ERN KS EARLY THIS MORNING IN                
REGION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN 305-310K LAYER JUXTAPOSED WITH                   
NEARLY STATIONARY 925-MB FRONT DRAPED IN NEARLY W-E MANNER OVER                 
THESE AREAS. SHRA/TSRA HAVE YET TO DEVELOP BUT CONTINUE TO MONITOR              
CLOSELY. WITH STATIONARY FRONT LURKING ABOUT SCT-ISOLATED TSRA                  
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON & EVENING OVER PRIMARILY NE KS WHERE                    
CLOSER TO TRACK OF SECONDARY MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWINGING ALMOST                
DUE S OVER MS VALLEY. WITH EXPECTED COVERAGE OVER C KS TO BE MORE               
ISOLATED IN NATURE...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP "VCTS" OUT OF KSLN FOR                  
TIME BEING.                                                                     
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 454 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008/                          
UPDATE...                                                                       
LATEST IR LOOP/FOG IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE ALTOCUMULUS                    
CASTELLANEOUS INCREASING IN COVERAGE IN AREAS BETWEEN SALINA AND                
CONCORDIA. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC                    
ASCENT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AROUND 310K MOVING THROUGH WESTERN                    
KANSAS...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RUC. LATEST LAPS DATA IS SHOWING               
0-3KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPES AROUND 1200 J/KG. THIS COULD LEAD TO THE              
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF                 
INTERSTATE 70 BEFORE 12Z. WE MAY EXTEND THE POPS BEYOND 12Z...BUT               
WE WILL MONITOR FOR A LITTLE LONGER BEFORE MAKING THAT DECISION.                
COX                                                                             
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE HEAT AND HOW            
LONG IT LAST. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES                     
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                      
TODAY AND TONIGHT:                                                              
LATEST IR LOOP IS SHOWING ANOTHER ATMOSPHERIC FIREWORKS SHOW MOVING             
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS IS               
ASSOCIATED WITH A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN                
IOWA. AS THIS SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST...IT WILL CAUSE THE             
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY NEAR THE KANSAS AND NEBRASKA BORDER TO               
PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH TODAY. THIS BOUNDARY COULD SET OFF A FEW PULSE                
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN NORTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON DUE              
TO MIXED LAYER CAPES AROUND 2500-3000J/KG AND WEAK SHEAR. THESE                 
STORMS WILL ALSO CREATE SEVERAL COLD POOL BOUNDARIES WHICH WILL ACT             
AS A FOCUS MECHANISM FOR MORE ACTIVITY EARLY THIS EVENING. THE                  
MODELS ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY WEAK LOW LEVEL JET IN SOUTHEAST                     
KANSAS...SO WE WOULD EXPECT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO DRIVE ALONG THE             
MEAN MID LEVEL FLOW INTO MISSOURI. HOWEVER...A FEW OF THESE STORMS              
COULD CLIP THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS LATE THIS            
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THEREFORE...WE HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF                     
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PICTURE MAINLY EAST OF A SALINA TO EL DORADO TO            
INDEPENDENCE LINE.                                                              
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO               
YESTERDAY AND THIS MORNING.                                                     
WEDNESDAY:                                                                      
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINNING TO WASH OUT               
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN OVER THE PLAINS.                     
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF/GFS AND UKMET ARE SHOWING AN INSTABILITY AXIS               
EXTENDING FROM SALINA TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH            
ACTIVITY IN THIS INSTABILITY AXIS DUE TO LIMITED LOW LEVEL                      
FORCING...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR TWO.               
THEREFORE...WE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PICTURE.            
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY:                                                       
THE HOT AND DRY PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON            
TEMPERATURES STAYING CLOSE TO THE CENTURY MARK. WE DID RAISE                    
TEMPERATURES AND LOWERED DEWPOINTS A FEW NOTCHES IN THIS TIMEFRAME.             
COX                                                                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
06Z TAF UPDATE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR                     
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW FOR ALL TERMINALS...HOWEVER A FRONTAL                     
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS FOR TUESDAY           
AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP               
NEAR THE FRONT FOR THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.                             
JAKUB                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    99  72  99  72 /  10  10   0  10                                
HUTCHINSON      99  71 100  72 /  10  10  10  10                                
NEWTON          98  71  98  72 /  10  20  10  10                                
ELDORADO        97  71  98  72 /  10  20  10  10                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   98  73  99  72 /  10  10   0  10                                
RUSSELL        100  68  99  69 /  10  10  10  10                                
GREAT BEND      99  68 100  69 /  10  10   0  10                                
SALINA          98  70  99  71 /  10  20  20  10                                
MCPHERSON       99  70  98  71 /  10  10  10  10                                
COFFEYVILLE     98  73  95  72 /  10  20  20  10                                
CHANUTE         98  71  95  72 /  10  20  20  10                                
IOLA            98  71  95  72 /  20  20  20  10                                
PARSONS-KPPF    98  72  95  72 /  10  20  20  10                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                              
723 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED FOR 12 UTC AVIATION                                                     
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
AN AREA OF ACCAS AT 12 KFT HAS PERSISTED FOR MOST OF THE MORNING                
HOURS. MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW               
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...A FEW                       
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT IN THE               
VICINITY OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOE/TOP LOOK TO HAVE A BETTER SHOT              
AT SEEING AT LEAST VCTS...WITH MODELS SUGGESTING THE HIGHEST                    
PROBABILITY ACROSS FAR EASTERN KANSAS. EASTERLY SFC WIND WILL BE                
THE DOMINANT VECTOR DURING THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD WITH SPEEDS                  
UNDER 12 KTS. BLAIR                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
08Z WATER VAPOR SHOWS A TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND            
THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST U.S. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED                
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND EXTENDED NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH              
PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MID WEST WAS ROTATING              
THROUGH IA WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER MN.                                      
ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A MOISTURE AXIS BETWEEN 800             
AND 700MB FROM SOUTHEAST NEB INTO NORTHERN MO. ISENTROPIC LIFT ON               
THE 310K SFC DEPICTED BY THE RUC SHOWS THIS NARROW CORRIDOR OF                  
MOISTURE REMAINING JUST NORTHEAST OF BROWN COUNTY. GFS ALSO KEEPS               
ITS QPF JUST TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH THE RUC SHOWING SOME DRYER AIR              
OVER CENTRAL KS...THINK BULK OF ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL REMAIN JUST            
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MOST OF THE LIFT OVERHEAD            
GOING INTO SATURATING PARCELS AS THEY LIFT INTO NORTHERN MO.                    
NEVERTHELESS WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS THROUGH 12Z. AFTER 12Z...LEFT               
LOOKS TO DIMINISH AND PRECIP MAY BE PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST.                    
FOR THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE                
CHARACTERIZED AS CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE WITH NO REAL FORCING TO                 
SPEAK OF AS THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS JUST TO THE WEST OVER THE HIGH              
PLAINS. WHILE MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE NOT OVERWHELMING IN TERMS OF A                
CAP...WEAK LOW LEVEL CAA WITH THE EASTERLY WIND WILL PREVENT THE                
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM MIXING AS DEEP AS IT HAS THE PAST COUPLE DAYS               
OVER EASTERN KS WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO POOL. SO THE            
QUESTION IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH HEATING AND LOW LEVEL                  
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT TO ALLOW A STORM TO DEVELOP. IN GENERAL             
DO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT TO REMOVE POPS GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY            
THERE COULD BE WITH DEWPOINTS POOLING AROUND 70 DEGREES. KEPT SOME              
CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON OVER EAST CENTRAL KS WHERE THE BOUNDARY              
AND GREATEST INSTABILITY SHOULD BE CO-LOCATED. FOR TONIGHT THROUGH              
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FELT CHANCE POPS WERE A LITTLE OVERDONE GIVEN LITTLE            
IF ANY FORCING PROGGED BY THE MODELS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR               
THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED CONVECTION TO FORM. BY WEDNESDAY...THE              
BOUNDARY SHOULD BEGIN TO WASH OUT AND PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD SHIFT               
BACK NORTH. HIGHS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS EASTERN KS SHOULD BE               
COOLER GIVEN THE DIMINISHED MIXING AND THE EASTERLY WINDS. PARTS OF             
NORTH CENTRAL KS AHEAD OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY SHOULD STILL REACH THE              
UPPER 90S.                                                                      
FORECAST REMAINS IN TACT FOR THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE GFS LOOKS             
TO SUFFER FROM FEEDBACK ISSUES ON THURSDAY WITH A CONVECTIVELY                  
INDUCED VORT MAX PROPAGATING ACROSS NORTHEAST KS DURING THE DAY.                
HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THIS SO MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.                
UNCERTAINTY IN SFC FEATURES FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND PRECLUDED ANY            
CHANGES.                                                                        
WOLTERS                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
700 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
12Z TAF ISSUANCE:                                                               
SCT ACCAS CONTS TO DEVELOP OVER C & ERN KS EARLY THIS MORNING IN                
REGION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN 305-310K LAYER JUXTAPOSED WITH                   
NEARLY STATIONARY 925-MB FRONT DRAPED IN NEARLY W-E MANNER OVER                 
THESE AREAS. SHRA/TSRA HAVE YET TO DEVELOP BUT CONTINUE TO MONITOR              
CLOSELY. WITH STATIONARY FRONT LURKING ABOUT SCT-ISOLATED TSRA                  
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON & EVENING OVER PRIMARILY NE KS WHERE                    
CLOSER TO TRACK OF SECONDARY MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWINGING ALMOST                
DUE S OVER MS VALLEY. WITH EXPECTED COVERAGE OVER C KS TO BE MORE               
ISOLATED IN NATURE...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP "VCTS" OUT OF KSLN FOR                  
TIME BEING.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 454 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
LATEST IR LOOP/FOG IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE ALTOCUMULUS                    
CASTELLANEOUS INCREASING IN COVERAGE IN AREAS BETWEEN SALINA AND                
CONCORDIA. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC                    
ASCENT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AROUND 310K MOVING THROUGH WESTERN                    
KANSAS...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RUC. LATEST LAPS DATA IS SHOWING               
0-3KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPES AROUND 1200 J/KG. THIS COULD LEAD TO THE              
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF                 
INTERSTATE 70 BEFORE 12Z. WE MAY EXTEND THE POPS BEYOND 12Z...BUT               
WE WILL MONITOR FOR A LITTLE LONGER BEFORE MAKING THAT DECISION.                
COX                                                                             
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE HEAT AND HOW            
LONG IT LAST. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES                     
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                      
TODAY AND TONIGHT:                                                              
LATEST IR LOOP IS SHOWING ANOTHER ATMOSPHERIC FIREWORKS SHOW MOVING             
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS IS               
ASSOCIATED WITH A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN                
IOWA. AS THIS SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST...IT WILL CAUSE THE             
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY NEAR THE KANSAS AND NEBRASKA BORDER TO               
PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH TODAY. THIS BOUNDARY COULD SET OFF A FEW PULSE                
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN NORTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON DUE              
TO MIXED LAYER CAPES AROUND 2500-3000J/KG AND WEAK SHEAR. THESE                 
STORMS WILL ALSO CREATE SEVERAL COLD POOL BOUNDARIES WHICH WILL ACT             
AS A FOCUS MECHANISM FOR MORE ACTIVITY EARLY THIS EVENING. THE                  
MODELS ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY WEAK LOW LEVEL JET IN SOUTHEAST                     
KANSAS...SO WE WOULD EXPECT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO DRIVE ALONG THE             
MEAN MID LEVEL FLOW INTO MISSOURI. HOWEVER...A FEW OF THESE STORMS              
COULD CLIP THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS LATE THIS            
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THEREFORE...WE HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF                     
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PICTURE MAINLY EAST OF A SALINA TO EL DORADO TO            
INDEPENDENCE LINE.                                                              
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO               
YESTERDAY AND THIS MORNING.                                                     
WEDNESDAY:                                                                      
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINNING TO WASH OUT               
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN OVER THE PLAINS.                     
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF/GFS AND UKMET ARE SHOWING AN INSTABILITY AXIS               
EXTENDING FROM SALINA TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH            
ACTIVITY IN THIS INSTABILITY AXIS DUE TO LIMITED LOW LEVEL                      
FORCING...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR TWO.               
THEREFORE...WE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PICTURE.            
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY:                                                       
THE HOT AND DRY PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON            
TEMPERATURES STAYING CLOSE TO THE CENTURY MARK. WE DID RAISE                    
TEMPERATURES AND LOWERED DEWPOINTS A FEW NOTCHES IN THIS TIMEFRAME.             
COX                                                                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
06Z TAF UPDATE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR                     
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW FOR ALL TERMINALS...HOWEVER A FRONTAL                     
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS FOR TUESDAY           
AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP               
NEAR THE FRONT FOR THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.                             
JAKUB                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    99  72  99  72 /  10  10   0  10                                
HUTCHINSON      99  71 100  72 /  10  10  10  10                                
NEWTON          98  71  98  72 /  10  20  10  10                                
ELDORADO        97  71  98  72 /  10  20  10  10                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   98  73  99  72 /  10  10   0  10                                
RUSSELL        100  68  99  69 /  10  10  10  10                                
GREAT BEND      99  68 100  69 /  10  10   0  10                                
SALINA          98  70  99  71 /  20  20  20  10                                
MCPHERSON       99  70  98  71 /  10  10  10  10                                
COFFEYVILLE     98  73  95  72 /  10  20  20  10                                
CHANUTE         98  71  95  72 /  10  20  20  10                                
IOLA            98  71  95  72 /  20  20  20  10                                
PARSONS-KPPF    98  72  95  72 /  10  20  20  10                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
454 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
LATEST IR LOOP/FOG IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE ALTOCUMULUS                    
CASTELLANEOUS INCREASING IN COVERAGE IN AREAS BETWEEN SALINA AND                
CONCORDIA. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC                    
ASCENT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AROUND 310K MOVING THROUGH WESTERN                    
KANSAS...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RUC. LATEST LAPS DATA IS SHOWING               
0-3KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPES AROUND 1200 J/KG. THIS COULD LEAD TO THE              
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF                 
INTERSTATE 70 BEFORE 12Z. WE MAY EXTEND THE POPS BEYOND 12Z...BUT               
WE WILL MONITOR FOR A LITTLE LONGER BEFORE MAKING THAT DECISION.                
COX                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE HEAT AND HOW            
LONG IT LAST. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES                     
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                      
TODAY AND TONIGHT:                                                              
LATEST IR LOOP IS SHOWING ANOTHER ATMOSPHERIC FIREWORKS SHOW MOVING             
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS IS               
ASSOCIATED WITH A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN                
IOWA. AS THIS SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST...IT WILL CAUSE THE             
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY NEAR THE KANSAS AND NEBRASKA BORDER TO               
PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH TODAY. THIS BOUNDARY COULD SET OFF A FEW PULSE                
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN NORTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON DUE              
TO MIXED LAYER CAPES AROUND 2500-3000J/KG AND WEAK SHEAR. THESE                 
STORMS WILL ALSO CREATE SEVERAL COLD POOL BOUNDARIES WHICH WILL ACT             
AS A FOCUS MECHANISM FOR MORE ACTIVITY EARLY THIS EVENING. THE                  
MODELS ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY WEAK LOW LEVEL JET IN SOUTHEAST                     
KANSAS...SO WE WOULD EXPECT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO DRIVE ALONG THE             
MEAN MID LEVEL FLOW INTO MISSOURI. HOWEVER...A FEW OF THESE STORMS              
COULD CLIP THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS LATE THIS            
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THEREFORE...WE HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF                     
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PICTURE MAINLY EAST OF A SALINA TO EL DORADO TO            
INDEPENDENCE LINE.                                                              
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO               
YESTERDAY AND THIS MORNING.                                                     
WEDNESDAY:                                                                      
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINNING TO WASH OUT               
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN OVER THE PLAINS.                     
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF/GFS AND UKMET ARE SHOWING AN INSTABILITY AXIS               
EXTENDING FROM SALINA TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH            
ACTIVITY IN THIS INSTABILITY AXIS DUE TO LIMITED LOW LEVEL                      
FORCING...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR TWO.               
THEREFORE...WE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PICTURE.            
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY:                                                       
THE HOT AND DRY PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON            
TEMPERATURES STAYING CLOSE TO THE CENTURY MARK. WE DID RAISE                    
TEMPERATURES AND LOWERED DEWPOINTS A FEW NOTCHES IN THIS TIMEFRAME.             
COX                                                                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
06Z TAF UPDATE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR                     
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW FOR ALL TERMINALS...HOWEVER A FRONTAL                     
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS FOR TUESDAY           
AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP               
NEAR THE FRONT FOR THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.                             
JAKUB                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    99  72  99  72 /  10  10   0  10                                
HUTCHINSON      99  71 100  72 /  10  10  10  10                                
NEWTON          98  71  98  72 /  10  20  10  10                                
ELDORADO        97  71  98  72 /  10  20  10  10                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   98  73  99  72 /  10  10   0  10                                
RUSSELL        100  68  99  69 /  10  10  10  10                                
GREAT BEND      99  68 100  69 /  10  10   0  10                                
SALINA          98  70  99  71 /  20  20  20  10                                
MCPHERSON       99  70  98  71 /  10  10  10  10                                
COFFEYVILLE     98  73  95  72 /  10  20  20  10                                
CHANUTE         98  71  95  72 /  10  20  20  10                                
IOLA            98  71  95  72 /  20  20  20  10                                
PARSONS-KPPF    98  72  95  72 /  10  20  20  10                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                              
350 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
08Z WATER VAPOR SHOWS A TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND            
THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST U.S. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED                
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND EXTENDED NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH              
PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MID WEST WAS ROTATING              
THROUGH IA WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER MN.                                      
ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A MOISTURE AXIS BETWEEN 800             
AND 700MB FROM SOUTHEAST NEB INTO NORTHERN MO. ISENTROPIC LIFT ON               
THE 310K SFC DEPICTED BY THE RUC SHOWS THIS NARROW CORRIDOR OF                  
MOISTURE REMAINING JUST NORTHEAST OF BROWN COUNTY. GFS ALSO KEEPS               
ITS QPF JUST TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH THE RUC SHOWING SOME DRYER AIR              
OVER CENTRAL KS...THINK BULK OF ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL REMAIN JUST            
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MOST OF THE LIFT OVERHEAD            
GOING INTO SATURATING PARCELS AS THEY LIFT INTO NORTHERN MO.                    
NEVERTHELESS WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS THROUGH 12Z. AFTER 12Z...LEFT               
LOOKS TO DIMINISH AND PRECIP MAY BE PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST.                    
FOR THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE                
CHARACTERIZED AS CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE WITH NO REAL FORCING TO                 
SPEAK OF AS THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS JUST TO THE WEST OVER THE HIGH              
PLAINS. WHILE MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE NOT OVERWHELMING IN TERMS OF A                
CAP...WEAK LOW LEVEL CAA WITH THE EASTERLY WIND WILL PREVENT THE                
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM MIXING AS DEEP AS IT HAS THE PAST COUPLE DAYS               
OVER EASTERN KS WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO POOL. SO THE            
QUESTION IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH HEATING AND LOW LEVEL                  
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT TO ALLOW A STORM TO DEVELOP. IN GENERAL             
DO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT TO REMOVE POPS GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY            
THERE COULD BE WITH DEWPOINTS POOLING AROUND 70 DEGREES. KEPT SOME              
CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON OVER EAST CENTRAL KS WHERE THE BOUNDARY              
AND GREATEST INSTABILITY SHOULD BE CO-LOCATED. FOR TONIGHT THROUGH              
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FELT CHANCE POPS WERE A LITTLE OVERDONE GIVEN LITTLE            
IF ANY FORCING PROGGED BY THE MODELS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR               
THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED CONVECTION TO FORM. BY WEDNESDAY...THE              
BOUNDARY SHOULD BEGIN TO WASH OUT AND PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD SHIFT               
BACK NORTH. HIGHS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS EASTERN KS SHOULD BE               
COOLER GIVEN THE DIMINISHED MIXING AND THE EASTERLY WINDS. PARTS OF             
NORTH CENTRAL KS AHEAD OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY SHOULD STILL REACH THE              
UPPER 90S.                                                                      
FORECAST REMAINS IN TACT FOR THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE GFS LOOKS             
TO SUFFER FROM FEEDBACK ISSUES ON THURSDAY WITH A CONVECTIVELY                  
INDUCED VORT MAX PROPAGATING ACROSS NORTHEAST KS DURING THE DAY.                
HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THIS SO MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.                
UNCERTAINTY IN SFC FEATURES FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND PRECLUDED ANY            
CHANGES.                                                                        
WOLTERS                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEARING THE TAF SITES LATE THIS EVENING BUT                    
CONVECTION HAS PUSHED TO THE EAST AND CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL                    
DEVELOPMENT IN THE LOCAL AREA SEEM LOW GIVEN MEAGER 850MB MOISTURE              
PER 00Z UPPER AIR DATA. MAY SEE SOME LINGERING MID CLOUD THROUGH                
MUCH OF THIS CYCLE WITH SOME CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION                   
DURING AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS THURSDAY WITH FRONT/OUTFLOW IN THE               
VICINITY...BUT CHANCES APPEAR TOO LOW FOR A MENTION AT THIS TIME.               
65                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
1230 AM MDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
1230 AM MDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                     
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BREAK DOWN OVER MUCH OF THE                 
NORTHERN PLAINS STATES ON WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER                  
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TRANSLATES EAST/NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN                 
ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. FURTHER                       
SOUTH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS POOLED ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT            
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS ALLOWING DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES              
TO RISE INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AS THIS                 
FRONT BACKS SLOWLY INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...EXPECT FOG STRATUS              
TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURED THIS SCENARIO             
WITH ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES PLANNED. LOW LEVEL WIND TRAJECTORIES                   
SUPPORT LOWERING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES                
WHERE A LULL IN DEEP VERTICAL MIXING IS ANTICIPATED GIVEN MOIST                 
EASTERLY POST-FRONTAL REGIME.  NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT               
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEIGHTED ACROSS               
THE NORTHEAST ZONES WHERE MLCAPE IS MAXIMIZED WITH MINIMAL CINH.                
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO SPRAWL OVER             
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER                     
90S/AROUND 100 EXPECTED ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA. THE STALLED FRONT            
MAY LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS RATHER HIGH            
SO LEANED A LITTLE COOLER TOWARD THE KMCK AREA. INCREASING H7                   
TEMPERATURES SUGGEST VERY LIMITED CHANCES FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION             
AND PULLED POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH             
THE EXCEPTION BEING THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE AN ISOLATED                   
THUNDERSTORM MAY DRIFT ENE OFF THE FAVORED TERRAIN OUT WEST. A COLD             
FRONT MAY SURGE SOUTH LATE THURSDAY...HOWEVER CAPPING CONCERNS AND              
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF FRONT REMAIN UNCERTAIN. TRIMMED POPS TO THE FAR              
NORTHWEST ZONES GIVEN CAPPING CONCERNS. HIGHS ON EITHER SIZE OF 100             
ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN.                                                        
DAYS 4 THROUGH 7...NO CHANGES.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
1056 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2008                                                     
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...INITIAL PROBLEM WILL BE FOG AND STRATUS POTENTIAL            
FOR KMCK. NAM/RUC SIMILAR IN BRINGING IN FOG AND STRATUS AROUND 09Z.            
FEEL MORE CONFIDENT OF THIS HAPPENING DUE TO DEWPOINT/TEMPERATURE               
SPREADS VERY NARROW UPSTREAM WITH FOG ALREADY DEVELOPING. MODEL                 
GUIDANCE SAYS THERE IS POTENTIAL TO GO TO LIFR ON THE VISIBILITY.               
HOWEVER...DID NOT WANT TO GO THAT FAR YET. SO KEPT MVFR VISIBILITY              
AND IFR CEILING. AFTER THAT...SHOULD BE VFR AT KMCK FOR THE                     
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. KGLD WILL REMAIN VFR FOR THE ENTIRE                    
PERIOD. AFTER 18Z THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TSRA. AT THIS                 
TIME NOT CONFIDENT IS LOCATION OF CONVECTION SO PUT NO MENTION OF               
IT IN THE TAFS WITH THE KMCK TAF HAVING THE BEST CHANCE.                        
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
1058 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
824 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2008                                                      
JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATED. LOW LEVEL AIR MASS HAS BECOME CAPPED                 
PER LAPS AND AREA SOUNDINGS. NO SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL JET OR LIFT               
AT MID LEVELS SEEN SO LOOKS LIKE NO ELEVATED TSRA DEVELOPING LATER              
TONIGHT. BASED ON EASTERLY WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE BEHIND                 
SAGGING COLD FRONT...INSERTED PATCHY FOG INTO THE FORECAST PLUS                 
INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN THE FAR NORTH LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW               
MORNING. ALSO ADJUST MINS UP A LITTLE BIT IN THE NORTHEAST AS                   
WELL. TWEEKED WIND...TEMPERATURE...AND DEWPOINT GRIDS BASED ON                  
REALITY AND LATEST GUIDANCE.                                                    
BULLER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION              
CHANCES.                                                                        
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE               
AREA (PRIMARILY) OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY                   
SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT COMBINED WITH                        
INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE VIA MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND              
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THE                        
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. STILL SOME TIMING AND POSITION DIFFERENCES               
WITH REGARD TO LOCATION OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED FEATURES SO FOR NOW              
WILL KEEP POPS ON THE SLIGHT CHANCE SIDE AND GO FROM THERE.                     
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE               
90S AND PROBABLY LOW 100S FOR A FEW LOCATIONS. NAM STILL TRYING TO              
SUGGEST SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS ALONG THE NEARLY                    
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT OUT OF THE                   
AREA. SHOULD THE NAM VERIFY STRATUS/FOG AND SOME AVIATION CONCERNS              
WILL DEVELOP. WILL KEEP THE FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST AGAIN TODAY                 
UNTIL SOME CONSISTENCY DEVELOPS WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE                       
BOUNDARY.                                                                       
FRIDAY-MONDAY...LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER              
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE                 
SHIFTING WEST TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A                    
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACKS INTO THE AREA. MONSOONAL                      
MOISTURE AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL                     
PROMOTE A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY.                         
DDT                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
1056 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2008                                                     
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...INITIAL PROBLEM WILL BE FOG AND STRATUS POTENTIAL            
FOR KMCK. NAM/RUC SIMILAR IN BRINGING IN FOG AND STRATUS AROUND 09Z.            
FEEL MORE CONFIDENT OF THIS HAPPENING DUE TO DEWPOINT/TEMPERATURE               
SPREADS VERY NARROW UPSTREAM WITH FOG ALREADY DEVELOPING. MODEL                 
GUIDANCE SAYS THERE IS POTENITAL TO GO TO LIFR ON THE VISIBILITY.               
HOWEVER...DID NOT WANT TO GO THAT FAR YET. SO KEPT MVFR VISIBILITY              
AND IFR CEILING. AFTER THAT...SHOULD BE VFR AT KMCK FOR THE                     
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. KGLD WILL REMAIN VFR FOR THE ENTIRE                    
PERIOD. AFTER 18Z THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TSRA. AT THIS                 
TIME NOT CONFIDENT IS LOCATION OF CONVECTION SO PUT NO MENTION OF               
IT IN THE TAFS WITH THE KMCK TAF HAVING THE BEST CHANCE.                        
BULLER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                             
858 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
BAND OF CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY                
WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS FROM THE EAST TO                  
NORTHEAST ARE STAYING UP THIS EVENING...AND 21Z RUC FORECASTS SOME              
WIND TO CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE THROUGH 09Z. UPDATED FORECAST FOR               
THESE SLIGHT CHANGES. WITH THE CLOUDS AND WIND...RAISED TEMPS A                 
COUPLE DEGREES IN MOST PLACES /EXCEPT SW INDIANA AND ADJACENT                   
COUNTIES/.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /ISSUED 300 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008/...                     
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                        
DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS OVERSPREAD ALL BUT FAR SOUTHWEST                  
COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. PLENTY OF STRATOCU IN THAT                      
AREA...BUT APPARENTLY NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION TO                  
DEVELOP. NO MODELS LINGER ANYTHING BEYOND 00Z...SO WILL KEEP TONIGHT            
DRY...WITH CLEAR SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.                                   
MAIN QUESTION THURSDAY IS WHETHER A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL DIVE                
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO THE AREA. THE 12Z GFS HAS            
THE BEST HANDLE ON ONGOING WEAK CONVECTION NEAR SIOUX CITY IOWA                 
ALONG NORTHWEST EXTENSION OF MOISTURE BAND THAT EXTENDS INTO                    
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. BASED ON ITS BETTER HANDLING OF CURRENT                     
SITUATION WILL LEAN TOWARD ITS SOLUTION FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY               
NIGHT. IF THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND MOVES TOWARD THE AREA...IT IS                 
LIKELY THAT IT WILL OUTRUN RETURN FLOW MOISTURE UPON ENTERING THE               
AREA...AS SURFACE RIDGE HOLDS FIRM. THUS WILL KEEP POPS TO SLIGHT               
CHANCE ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN FRINGE OF THE AREA THURSDAY.                      
THE 12Z MODELS ALL WEAKEN AND PUSH THE SURFACE HIGH EAST OF THE AREA            
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW IN THE LOW                
LEVELS AND INCREASING MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN ZONES. THE               
GFS HAS A MORE WESTERN PATH TO THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ON THURSDAY               
NIGHT THAN THE NAM OR ECMWF...BUT GIVEN CURRENT LOCATION OF                     
BAROCLINIC ZONE...AM NOT READY TO DISCOUNT IT AT THIS TIME. WILL                
HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH BEST                 
CHANCES OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.                            
FRIDAY CONTINUES TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER THE QUAD            
STATE NO MATTER WHICH MODEL IS PREFERRED. EITHER A COMPLEX WILL BE              
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AS THE GFS SUGGESTS...OR THERE WILL BE                  
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE OUTFLOW OF A SYSTEM THAT SKIRTS BY TO OUR                 
NORTH AND NORTHEAST...AS THE NAM AND ECMWF SUGGEST. WILL KEEP POPS              
AT CHANCE LEVELS FRIDAY...WITH BEST CHANCES NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION            
SHOULD BE EXITING THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.              
COULD HAVE A DRY PERIOD FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF                  
SATURDAY...BEFORE YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT REACHES THE AREA LATE                  
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. DECIDED TO GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS TO              
BE SAFE FOR SATURDAY.                                                           
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN NEAR NORMAL OR JUST A BIT BELOW               
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.                                              
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                 
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC               
PATTERN OVER THE COUNTRY...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER ROCKY                       
MOUNTAINS...AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST. THE QUAD STATE WILL BE UNDER              
THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WHICH TRADITIONALLY LEADS TO            
A LOW CONFIDENCE PRECIPITATION FORECAST...AS THE MODELS HAVE A                  
DIFFICULT TIME WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF IMPULSES WHICH WILL                 
EITHER TOUCH OFF MCS/S OR WILL BRING A FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.                
WILL LEAN ON THE HPC SOLUTION...WHICH IS HIGHLY BASED ON NCEP/ECMWF             
ENSEMBLE MEANS. THIS APPROACH TENDS TO WASH OUT SOME OF THE DETAILS             
AND LEADS TO A SIMPLIFIED SOLUTION. AN EAST/WEST ORIENTED FRONT                 
BISECTING THE QUAD STATE SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH OF THE            
AREA BY MONDAY MORNING...WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK.                  
WILL HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND THEN SHOW A             
DRYING TREND FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE                   
FORECAST IS DRY FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE A                
SWATH OF HEAVY RAINALL AND SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH AN MCS AT SOME                 
POINT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...BUT SEVERE STORMS SEEM                    
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE POPS ADDED IN              
FOR NEXT WEEK...BUT AT THIS TIME...WITH THE FRONT STAYING TO OUR                
SOUTH AND EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...CANNOT JUSTIFY ANYTHING BUT A               
DRY FORECAST.                                                                   
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST A BIT ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE              
PERIOD. OF COURSE...A POORLY TIMED MCS COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT                 
IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES...SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED ACROSS THE AREA               
YESTERDAY.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL                                                     
THROUGH THURSDAY. INTERVALS OF CIRRUS WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE              
AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED.             
NORTHEAST WINDS AS HIGH AS 10 KNOTS WILL SUBSIDE TO NEAR CALM THIS              
EVENING...THEN BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH AN                    
INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY COMPONENT.                                               
&&                                                                              
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...MY                                                                     
SHORT TERM......DRS                                                             
LONG TERM.......DRS                                                             
AVIATION........RP                                                              
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                             
1140 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
REVISED FORECAST TO ELIMINATE ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION EXCEPT               
FOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE ARKANSAS BORDER...NAMELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF              
A GREENVILLE MISSOURI TO HICKMAN KENTUCKY LINE. THIS AREA HAS YET               
TO EXPERIENCE THE INFILTRATION OF LOW 60S DEW POINT AIR THAT HAS                
MADE ITS WAY ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.                 
BOUNDARY LAYER DRYING WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON IN THE               
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...SO MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE TO ACCOUNT                 
FOR ANY CONVECTION THAT MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN NOW AND NEXT ROUTINE                
FORECAST ISSUANCE. ALSO TWEAKED TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT GRIDS                 
DOWN A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING TRENDS.                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. ANY THUNDERSTORM                  
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF AREA FORECAST TERMINALS THIS                   
AFTERNOON. DEVELOPMENT OF FEW-SCT CU IS STILL EXPECTED TODAY...                 
WITH NEARLY CLOUD-FREE SKIES TONIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS AS HIGH AS                
10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF TODAY...THEN BECOME NEARLY CALM               
TONIGHT.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
RADARS EARLY THIS MORNING INDICATED A TSTM CLUSTER MOVING SEWD                  
THROUGH THE MO OZARK FOOTHILLS REGION NEAR AN 850 MB WIND CONVERGENCE           
BOUNDARY. THE RUC MODEL SHOWS THIS PATTERN DISAPPEARING BY 12Z OR               
SO...AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN ON THE NOSE OF A SFC HIGH PRESSURE                 
AREA. THIS SHOULD ALL BUT ELIMINATE CHCS OF PCPN BY AFTN EVEN NEAR              
THE AR/TN BORDER.                                                               
THE PAH FCST AREA WILL BE RAIN FREE THROUGH THU AFTN...THEN THE                 
MID LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR REGION IS PROGGED TO TAKE ON A MORE WRLY                
COMPONENT AS AN ERN GREAT LAKES LOW DEPARTS INTO CANADA. THIS                   
SHOULD RESULT IN THE EWD EXPANSION OF THE SWRN CONUS MID LEVEL                  
RIDGE AND THE REINTRODUCTION OF WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE SW ON THU               
NIGHT/FRI. SCT SHWS/TSTMS WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN THE VICINITY OF               
THE WARM FRONT. FRI NIGHT PCPN CHCS WILL DECREASE SOME...                       
ESPECIALLY IN SERN MO AS SHRTWV ENERGY EVENTUALLY TURNS LOW LEVEL               
WINDS BACK TO THE NORTH...TENDING TO DRY OUT THE ATMOSPHERIC                    
COLUMN. THIS WRN RIDGE/ERN TROF PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO                          
CONTINUE...WITH AN ON AND OFF PCPN PATTERN LASTING AT LEAST                     
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SHRTWV ENERGY IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE                  
NWLY MID LEVEL PATTERN. ALL IN ALL...POPS ARE NOT VERY HIGH. FURTHER            
INTO NEXT WEEK...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DRIER NWRLY                  
FLOW APPEARS TO WIN OUT FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE                     
MODERATE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RJP/DB                                                                          
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                             
334 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
RADARS EARLY THIS MORNING INDICATED A TSTM CLUSTER MOVING SEWD                  
THROUGH THE MO OZARK FOOTHILLS REGION NEAR AN 850 MB WIND CONVERGENCE           
BOUNDARY. THE RUC MODEL SHOWS THIS PATTERN DISAPPEARING BY 12Z OR               
SO...AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN ON THE NOSE OF A SFC HIGH PRESSURE                 
AREA. THIS SHOULD ALL BUT ELIMINATE CHCS OF PCPN BY AFTN EVEN NEAR              
THE AR/TN BORDER.                                                               
THE PAH FCST AREA WILL BE RAIN FREE THROUGH THU AFTN...THEN THE                 
MID LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR REGION IS PROGGED TO TAKE ON A MORE WRLY                
COMPONENT AS AN ERN GREAT LAKES LOW DEPARTS INTO CANADA. THIS                   
SHOULD RESULT IN THE EWD EXPANSION OF THE SWRN CONUS MID LEVEL                  
RIDGE AND THE REINTRODUCTION OF WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE SW ON THU               
NIGHT/FRI. SCT SHWS/TSTMS WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN THE VICINITY OF               
THE WARM FRONT. FRI NIGHT PCPN CHCS WILL DECREASE SOME...                       
ESPECIALLY IN SERN MO AS SHRTWV ENERGY EVENTUALLY TURNS LOW LEVEL               
WINDS BACK TO THE NORTH...TENDING TO DRY OUT THE ATMOSPHERIC                    
COLUMN. THIS WRN RIDGE/ERN TROF PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO                          
CONTINUE...WITH AN ON AND OFF PCPN PATTERN LASTING AT LEAST                     
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SHRTWV ENERGY IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE                  
NWLY MID LEVEL PATTERN. ALL IN ALL...POPS ARE NOT VERY HIGH. FURTHER            
INTO NEXT WEEK...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DRIER NWRLY                  
FLOW APPEARS TO WIN OUT FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE                     
MODERATE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
CONVECTION SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE TAF SITES EARLY TODAY. SOME MID              
CLOUDS MAY AFFECT THE SITES EARLY ON...FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF CU               
FORMATION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NE DURING THE DAY...NEARLY CALM AT               
NIGHT. SOME BRIEF VSBYS 3-5SM CANNOT BE RULED OUT EARLY THIS MORNING.           
&&                                                                              
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC....DB                                                                    
AVIATION...CN                                                                   
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                             
935 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SINCE 00Z...ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR HAVE              
ACTUALLY INCREASED SLIGHTLY. THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION REMAINS             
VERY MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A               
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY FROM THE                     
NORTHWEST. RUC MODEL HINTS AT A SECONDARY SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING               
SOUTH INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL MARK THE                
LEADING EDGE OF DRIER AIR. BASED ON THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES...EXPECT            
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. WOULD NOT BE                     
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES. FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED TO            
REFLECT LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS.                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /ISSUED 308 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008/...                     
FOR THE VERY SHORT TERM/TONIGHT/...CURRENT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING            
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI SHOULD SCOUR OUT ANY REMAINING EFFECTIVE              
THETA-E AIR IMPINGING ON THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA. THE CIRRUS                  
SHIELD FROM THIS COMPLEX SHOULD ALSO RETARD ANY SIGNIFICANT RISE IN             
LOW LEVEL/SURFACE TEMPERATURES ENOUGH TO REACH CONVECTIVE VALUES                
THROUGH SOUTHERN IL...SOUTHWEST IN...NORTHWEST KY FOR THE REMAINDER             
OF THE AFTERNOON. TO HANDLE REMNANTS OF THE SERN MO MCS AND ISOLATED            
CONVECTION THROUGH THE EVENING...I HAVE LEFT A SMALL POP ACROSS THE             
SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA THROUGH 10                         
PM...TAPERING RAIN CHANCES OFF RAPIDLY FROM 10 PM TUESDAY THROUGH 1             
AM WEDNESDAY. BY THAT TIME...WIND FIELDS PER THE GFS/MOS GUIDANCE               
SUGGEST WEAK CONVERGENT FLOW WITH THE SWD MOVING SURFACE FRONT. BY              
12Z THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE LINE SHOULD BE NEARING THE SOUTHERN                 
BORDER COUNTIES OF MO/KY...WITH THE 925/850 MB FRONT CUTTING W-E                
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 1/3 OF THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY                  
MORNING.                                                                        
WITH MOST OF THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE EFFECTIVELY SCOURED                       
OUT...AND THE SHORTWAVE SHEARING AWAY FROM THE WFO PAH FORECAST                 
AREA LATE TONIGHT...I DECIDED TO PULL ANY MENTION OF MEASURABLE                 
POPS FROM THE FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE FRONTAL                         
CONVERGENCE ZONE NEARBY AND WEAK WINDS...I DID...HOWEVER...ADD THE              
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG TO FAVORED LOCATIONS IN THE WFO PAH FORECAST              
AREA.                                                                           
FOR WEDNESDAY...INSOLATION AND WEAK LIFT ACROSS THE FRONTAL                     
BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE                    
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND              
925/850 MB FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR                 
INFILTRATING THE AREA...MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT RISE MUCH                   
HIGHER THAN TODAYS RAIN-COOLED VALUES.                                          
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...A SHARPER NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL              
IMPINGE ON THE AREA...WITH A GRADUAL SHARPENING/INCREASE OF                     
THICKNESS/MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER MO/AR...SETTING              
UP THE STAGE FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION TO MOVE BACK                  
ACROSS SERN MO LATER THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON.                                
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEAK...THE WFO PAH FORECAST              
AREA WILL BE POISED IN A QUASI-STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE...WITH                
FASTER FLOW TO THE NORTHEAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEMI-PERMANENT                 
CYCLONIC VORTEX ROTATING OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST                  
QUARTER OF THE UNITED STATES...WITH A BROAD RIDGE CENTERED OVER                 
WRN TX/OK...ERN CO/NM. IN BETWEEN...THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA WILL              
BE ON THE RECEIVING END OF PERIODIC MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS                
MOVING SEWD IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THE AMOUNT OF RETURN FLOW BETWEEN                 
EACH SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY/SEVERITY OF EACH              
SYSTEM DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH MUCH OF THE QUAD STATE            
REGION THIS MORNING HAS EFFECTIVELY STABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE FOR               
THIS AFTERNOON AND LIKELY TONIGHT AS WELL. ANOTHER COMPLEX OF                   
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH              
OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS               
AND A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT KPOF AND POINTS FURTHER                
EAST. THIS COMPLEX MAY BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN TO KCGI...BUT               
THUNDER IS VERY UNLIKELY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER                
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THESE AREAS MAY FEEL A WIND SHIFT TO THE              
WEST OR NORTHWEST...AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHES EAST SOUTHEAST               
THROUGH THE REGION.                                                             
TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA...HOWEVER                
INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING...SO THUNDER IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH IT             
TONIGHT. COULD SEE SOME MVFR TO IFR FOG AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFTER 06Z            
TONIGHT...IF CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS DEVELOP AS FORECAST.                     
MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE BEHIND THE FRONT BY 14Z WEDNESDAY...SO               
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW VFR TO MVFR CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG               
WITH SOME LINGERING MVFR VISIBILITIES IN THE MORNING.                           
HOWEVER...THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED EAST OF THE                    
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AS NORTHEAST WINDS BRING IN DRIER CONDITIONS. IN            
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...CLOUDS MAY LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY...AND WINDS               
MAY BE MORE VARIABLE...AS THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT IS LESS CERTAIN             
IN THAT AREA.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...MY                                                                     
PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...DRS/SMITH                                                 
PREVIOUS LONG TERM....SMITH                                                     
AVIATION...DRS                                                                  
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
154 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM                                                                     
...MESOSCALE UPDATE...                                                          
REMNANTS...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER WESTERN                
KENTUCKY THIS MORNING IS PRODUCING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS                  
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KY THIS AFTERNOON. MCVS APPARENT ON SAT               
LOOP AS WELL AS TWO CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES JUST WEST OF OUR              
CWA. AT PRESENT...ACTIVITY SEEMS ESPECIALLY CONCENTRATED IN THIS                
AREA. RUC ANALYSIS AND GOES SOUNDING DATA SUGGEST ACTIVITY WILL                 
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY AS CAPE INCREASES...TO AROUND            
2000 J/KG ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON. RTMA              
SFC ANALYSIS IS ALSO PICKING UP ON GOOD SFC CONVERGENCE IN THE                  
VICINITY OF INTERSECTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. ATTM EXPECT THE BULK OF            
ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO BE RESTRICTED TO AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF EACH             
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...OR GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I75 CORRIDOR              
AND SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY.                                              
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                          
/THE REST OF TODAY/                                                             
DECREASED SKY COVER SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE BOARD PER LATEST VISIBLE                
SATELLITE IMAGERY. INSPITE OF AN OVERCAST OF CIRROSTRATUS...THE                 
OVERALL OPAQUE CLOUD COVER IS MUCH LESS THAN THE NUMBERS THAT WERE IN           
THE SKY COVER GRIDS PREVIOUSLY...SO APPROPRIATED ADJUSTMENTS WERE               
MADE. THE PRIMARY CHANGE HERE WAS DOWNGRADING A FEW OF THE ZONE                 
BREAKUPS FROM MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH                      
MID AFTERNOON. ALSO DECREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES QUITE A BIT                 
THROUGH 18Z...AS THERE SIMPLY ISNT ANYTHING HAPPENING ACROSS EASTERN            
KENTUCKY RIGHT NOW CONVECTIVE LY SPEAKING. STILL ANTICIPATING SHOWERS           
AND STORMS TO FIRE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME QUITE NUMEROUS               
ALONG A SLOWLY SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH A FEW STRONG            
TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE WAY. THE CIRROSTRATUS LAYER IS              
KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM INCREASING VERY MUCH AT ALL SO FAR TODAY.             
THE 14 AND 15Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT HOURLY TEMPS ARE              
RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATED.            
MADE ADJUSTMENTS HERE PER THE TEMP TRENDS OBSERVED SO FAR THIS                  
MORNING. ALSO RECALCULATED TODAYS MAX TEMPS BASED ON THE CHANGES MADE           
TO DIURNAL TREND...WITH TODAYS HIGHS 4 TO 6 DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE           
BOARD. CORRESPONDING ADJUSTMENTS WERE ALSO NECESSARY WITH THE WEATHER           
AND QPF FORECASTS...BASED ON THE DECREASED POPS DURING THE LATE                 
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON PERIOD.                                              
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                          
/THE REST OF TODAY/                                                             
CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED AS EXPECTED AS IT MOVED INTO THE MORE                 
STABLE AIRMASS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. WILL REMOVE THE WATCH HEADLINE            
FROM THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT BUT WILL LEAVE EVERYTHING ELSE AS IS             
FOR NOW AS IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR LIKE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL               
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.                                       
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                          
/TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/                                                        
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN                
GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS             
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF              
CONVECTION ANTICIPATED BEFORE IT PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH AND HIGH                   
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.                   
IT IS TOUCH TO GAGE WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH THE INITIAL MCS ONGOING TO            
OUR NORTHWEST. THE AIRMASS OVER SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY IS ACTUALLY                  
FAIRLY STABLE WITH LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS LEFT OVER AFTER THE                  
CONVECTION EARLIER ON MONDAY. THE SYSTEM MAY ACTUALLY JUST DELIVER A            
GLANCING BLOW AS THE EASTERN END PROGRESSES ACROSS NORTHERN                     
KENTUCKY/SOUTHERN OHIO AND THE WESTERN HALF DIVES SOUTH OR                      
REDEVELOPS IN THE MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE            
STATE. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS TO BE SUPPORTED BY MCS MAINTENANCE                   
PROBABILITIES BUT WE WILL JUST HAVE TO WATCH RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS             
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO TO SEE HOW THIS SYSTEM HOLDS TOGETHER AS              
IT CONTINUES TOWARD THE AREA. WHATEVER HAPPENS WITH THE MCS EARLY               
THIS MORNING PRECIP WISE... THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LOT OF DEBRIS                
CLOUDINESS DURING THE MORNING HOURS BUT THIS SHOULD THIN AND SCATTER            
OUT ALLOWING FOR GOOD HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION DURING THE                    
AFTERNOON HOURS... ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. ADDITIONAL MCS            
ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND PROGRESS SOUTHEAST             
INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE             
CONTINUES TO BE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT               
THE DAY TODAY AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING                
WINDS POSSIBLE.                                                                 
ANOTHER THING TO NOTE TODAY IS THE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN MOS GUIDANCE            
TEMPS WITH AN 8 DEGREE SPREAD BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET NUMBERS AT JKL            
AND LOZ. GFS SEEMS TO BE WARMING THE AREA TOO MUCH AT 850 MB                    
POSSIBLY DUE TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND OVER DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA             
OF LOW PRESSURE ON THE FRONT. NAM IS PROBABLY OVERDOING THE AMOUNT              
OF CLOUD COVER TODAY. OVERALL... EXPECT READINGS TO COME IN SIMILAR             
TO YESTERDAY OVER SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY BUT REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES                 
COOLER UP NORTH WHERE MORE CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED.                              
WILL LINGER LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS THE                 
FRONT SLOWLY WORKS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BUT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR             
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. A MUCH DRIER             
AIRMASS IS PROGGED TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SURFACE                   
DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO            
THE UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN OUR ORDINARILY COOLER VALLEY                   
LOCATIONS AND KEEP CONDITIONS PLEASANT ON THURSDAY.                             
.LONG TERM.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/                                    
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES WITH ADVERTISING NORTHWEST FLOW               
ALOFT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND NEW ENGLAND AS REINFORCING NORTHERN            
STREAM ENERGY ALLOWS FOR DEEPER CUTOFF LOWS TO DEVELOP ACROSS                   
EASTERN CANADA. EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL BEGIN THE LONG TERM UNDER THE             
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING            
DAILY CHANCES OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED                    
CONVECTION TO THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY              
NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT IS SLOW TO EXIT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. GIVEN              
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEARLY SEASONAL FOR            
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE HPC NUMBERS LOOKED REASONABLE ONCE AGAIN AND             
ONLY MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THESE.                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/...UPDATED                                              
CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS HEADED FOR OUR SW                  
COUNTIES AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME. HAVE TIMED THESE ACROSS KLOZ AND KSME            
AT MID AFTERNOON NEAR THE BEGINNING OF TAF VALID TIME. HAVE ONLY USED           
VCTS AT KJKL...WITH NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT NOT TAKING PLACE SO FAR.              
AFTER THE CURRENT BATCH OF STORMS MOVES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES            
THIS AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL PRECIP THROUGH TONIGHT IS MUCH MORE                 
QUESTIONABLE. ON WEDNESDAY...WILL LOOK FOR MORE DEVELOPMENT OF                  
CONVECTION AS HEATING OCCURS AND A COLD FRONT MOVEST SOUTHEAST                  
THROUGH THE AREA. ANY PRECIP SHOULD SWEEP SE OUT OF THE STATE WITH              
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF PRECIP...MAINLY VFR           
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF VALLEY FOG             
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.                                              
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...ABE/AR/RAY                                                         
LONG TERM....GEOGERIAN                                                          
AVIATION...HAL                                                                  
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
136 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...UPDATED                                                           
...MESOSCALE UPDATE...                                                          
REMNANTS...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER WESTERN                
KENTUCKY THIS MORNING IS PRODUCING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS                  
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KY THIS AFTERNOON. MCVS APPARENT ON SAT               
LOOP AS WELL AS TWO CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES JUST WEST OF OUR              
CWA. AT PRESENT...ACTIVITY SEEMS ESPECIALLY CONCENTRATED IN THIS                
AREA. RUC ANALYSIS AND GOES SOUNDING DATA SUGGEST ACTIVITY WILL                 
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY AS CAPE INCREASES...TO AROUND            
2000 J/KG ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON. RTMA              
SFC ANALYSIS IS ALSO PICKING UP ON GOOD SFC CONVERGENCE IN THE                  
VICINITY OF INTERSECTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. ATTM EXPECT THE BULK OF            
ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO BE RESTRICTED TO AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF EACH             
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...OR GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I75 CORRIDOR              
AND SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY.                                              
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                          
/THE REST OF TODAY/                                                             
DECREASED SKY COVER SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE BOARD PER LATEST VISIBLE                
SATELLITE IMAGERY. INSPITE OF AN OVERCAST OF CIRROSTRATUS...THE                 
OVERALL OPAQUE CLOUD COVER IS MUCH LESS THAN THE NUMBERS THAT WERE IN           
THE SKY COVER GRIDS PREVIOUSLY...SO APPROPRIATED ADJUSTMENTS WERE               
MADE. THE PRIMARY CHANGE HERE WAS DOWNGRADING A FEW OF THE ZONE                 
BREAKUPS FROM MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH                      
MID AFTERNOON. ALSO DECREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES QUITE A BIT                 
THROUGH 18Z...AS THERE SIMPLY ISNT ANYTHING HAPPENING ACROSS EASTERN            
KENTUCKY RIGHT NOW CONVECTIVE LY SPEAKING. STILL ANTICIPATING SHOWERS           
AND STORMS TO FIRE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME QUITE NUMEROUS               
ALONG A SLOWLY SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH A FEW STRONG            
TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE WAY. THE CIRROSTRATUS LAYER IS              
KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM INCREASING VERY MUCH AT ALL SO FAR TODAY.             
THE 14 AND 15Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT HOURLY TEMPS ARE              
RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATED.            
MADE ADJUSTMENTS HERE PER THE TEMP TRENDS OBSERVED SO FAR THIS                  
MORNING. ALSO RECALCULATED TODAYS MAX TEMPS BASED ON THE CHANGES MADE           
TO DIURNAL TREND...WITH TODAYS HIGHS 4 TO 6 DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE           
BOARD. CORRESPONDING ADJUSTMENTS WERE ALSO NECESSARY WITH THE WEATHER           
AND QPF FORECASTS...BASED ON THE DECREASED POPS DURING THE LATE                 
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON PERIOD.                                              
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                          
/THE REST OF TODAY/                                                             
CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED AS EXPECTED AS IT MOVED INTO THE MORE                 
STABLE AIRMASS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. WILL REMOVE THE WATCH HEADLINE            
FROM THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT BUT WILL LEAVE EVERYTHING ELSE AS IS             
FOR NOW AS IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR LIKE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL               
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.                                       
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                          
/TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/                                                        
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN                
GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS             
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF              
CONVECTION ANTICIPATED BEFORE IT PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH AND HIGH                   
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.                   
IT IS TOUCH TO GAGE WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH THE INITIAL MCS ONGOING TO            
OUR NORTHWEST. THE AIRMASS OVER SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY IS ACTUALLY                  
FAIRLY STABLE WITH LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS LEFT OVER AFTER THE                  
CONVECTION EARLIER ON MONDAY. THE SYSTEM MAY ACTUALLY JUST DELIVER A            
GLANCING BLOW AS THE EASTERN END PROGRESSES ACROSS NORTHERN                     
KENTUCKY/SOUTHERN OHIO AND THE WESTERN HALF DIVES SOUTH OR                      
REDEVELOPS IN THE MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE            
STATE. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS TO BE SUPPORTED BY MCS MAINTENANCE                   
PROBABILITIES BUT WE WILL JUST HAVE TO WATCH RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS             
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO TO SEE HOW THIS SYSTEM HOLDS TOGETHER AS              
IT CONTINUES TOWARD THE AREA. WHATEVER HAPPENS WITH THE MCS EARLY               
THIS MORNING PRECIP WISE... THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LOT OF DEBRIS                
CLOUDINESS DURING THE MORNING HOURS BUT THIS SHOULD THIN AND SCATTER            
OUT ALLOWING FOR GOOD HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION DURING THE                    
AFTERNOON HOURS... ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. ADDITIONAL MCS            
ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND PROGRESS SOUTHEAST             
INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE             
CONTINUES TO BE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT               
THE DAY TODAY AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING                
WINDS POSSIBLE.                                                                 
ANOTHER THING TO NOTE TODAY IS THE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN MOS GUIDANCE            
TEMPS WITH AN 8 DEGREE SPREAD BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET NUMBERS AT JKL            
AND LOZ. GFS SEEMS TO BE WARMING THE AREA TOO MUCH AT 850 MB                    
POSSIBLY DUE TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND OVER DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA             
OF LOW PRESSURE ON THE FRONT. NAM IS PROBABLY OVERDOING THE AMOUNT              
OF CLOUD COVER TODAY. OVERALL... EXPECT READINGS TO COME IN SIMILAR             
TO YESTERDAY OVER SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY BUT REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES                 
COOLER UP NORTH WHERE MORE CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED.                              
WILL LINGER LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS THE                 
FRONT SLOWLY WORKS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BUT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR             
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. A MUCH DRIER             
AIRMASS IS PROGGED TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SURFACE                   
DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO            
THE UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN OUR ORDINARILY COOLER VALLEY                   
LOCATIONS AND KEEP CONDITIONS PLEASANT ON THURSDAY.                             
.LONG TERM.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/                                    
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES WITH ADVERTISING NORTHWEST FLOW               
ALOFT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND NEW ENGLAND AS REINFORCING NORTHERN            
STREAM ENERGY ALLOWS FOR DEEPER CUTOFF LOWS TO DEVELOP ACROSS                   
EASTERN CANADA. EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL BEGIN THE LONG TERM UNDER THE             
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING            
DAILY CHANCES OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED                    
CONVECTION TO THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY              
NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT IS SLOW TO EXIT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. GIVEN              
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEARLY SEASONAL FOR            
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE HPC NUMBERS LOOKED REASONABLE ONCE AGAIN AND             
ONLY MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THESE.                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../12Z TO 12Z/                                                        
WITH THE DISSIPATION OF THE EARLIER MCS TO OUR NORTH ATTENTION NOW              
TURNS TO THE TIMING FOR THE RENEWAL OF ACTIVITY. THIS WILL BE HARD              
TO PIN DOWN SO...BASED ON RECOVERY TIME AND DIURNAL HEATING...HAVE              
INCLUDED A PREVAILING VCTS FROM 18Z ON...INTENDING TO PROVIDE MORE              
SPECIFICS VIA FUTURE UPDATES OR AMENDMENTS. DID TRY TO TIME A NEW               
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR LATER THIS EVENING FROM 01Z INTO             
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS STILL LOOK TO BE MAINLY LIGHT FROM               
THE SOUTHWEST...OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS.                                          
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...ABE/AR/RAY                                                         
LONG TERM....GEOGERIAN                                                          
AVIATION...GREIF                                                                
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME                                             
929 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE               
EAST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION               
LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE             
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BRINGING RAIN WITH A CHANCE OF                 
THUNDERSTORMS.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                                
BIG CHGS TO NEAR TERM. FIRST LATEST RADAR IMAGERY NECESSITATED                  
HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE FA...SPCLY WRN AREAS WHERE WIDESPREAD SHWRS              
WERE IMMINENT. OVR THE WATERS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...WE ADDED            
MORE TSTM CVRG WITH A LITTLE LINE OF TSTMS APCHNG THESE AREAS.                  
MODELS INDICATE ELEVATED CAPE UP TO A 1000 J OR SO WITH ASSOCIATED              
ADVANCING WARM FRONT AND MOISTURE FLUX ADVCN/CNVRG ALG THE FRONT.               
ADDTIONAL CHGS WERE TO LOWER POPS FOR THU MIDDAY INTO AFT...AS                  
MUCH OF THE FA IS INDICATED BY THE MODELS TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR              
JUST E OF THE HVY RN BAND FURTHER W IN NEW ENG. MERGED CHGS IN                  
POPS AND CLDS TO THE MIDDLE OF PD 3 (THU NGT) FROM PREVIOUS FCST...             
WHERE POPS ARE SHOWN TO INCREASE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN COLD              
FRONT BAND OF SHWRS AND TSTMS.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...                          
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER THURSDAY NIGHT             
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LOW               
LEVEL JET TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT MOISTURE NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE                
FRONT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES. ALONG              
WITH THE FRONTAL LIFT...AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE LIFT                    
ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF                   
ABUNDANT MOISTURE...ENHANCED LIFT AND UPSLOPING OF MOISTURE INTO                
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN                 
ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATER THURSDAY NIGHT              
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS                
REGARDING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST                
PRECIPITATION. AN AREA OF RAIN WILL CROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF              
THE FRONT...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...THURSDAY NIGHT               
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION TAPERING TO                   
SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS                
COULD LINGER ACROSS MOSTLY NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED               
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN UPPER              
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION SATURDAY AND A COLD FRONT                 
APPROACHING SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL                 
LEVELS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                        
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FORECAST NOT ALL THAT DIFFERENT THAN                        
YESTERDAYS FORECAST GUIDANCE. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL                    
REMAIN PARKED OVER THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. COMPUTER MODELS              
DIFFER SOMEWHAT BEYOND MONDAY. ENSEMBLE MEAN MEMBERS FROM THE GFS               
INDICATE A MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN THE MIDWEST THAT ITS                         
OPERATIONAL COUNTERPART. HPC NOTED A COMMON OPERATIONAL BIAS                    
CONCERNING THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO. HAVE INITIALIZED THE EXTENDED                 
FORECAST WITH GMOS. HOWEVER...ON DAYS 6 AND 7 DECIDED TO GO WITH                
GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. THE AFFECT OF THIS WAS TO RAISE POPS BACK                
ABOVE CLIMO FOR NORTHERN TIER ZONES. ALL IN ALL...THERE IS A                    
MODERATE DEGREE                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                     
EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAINLY DUE TO CEILINGS TO PERSIST TONIGHT            
AND THURSDAY. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE KBGR AND KBHB AFTER 06Z.                     
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG...WITH A                  
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY                   
AFTERNOON. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION                 
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS                 
WILL THEN IMPROVE LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS              
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THOUGH THERE WILL                  
BE A CONTINUING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.                   
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES SHOULD BEGIN TO LOWER AGAIN LATER SATURDAY                
NIGHT WITH MORE EXTENSIVE SHOWERS DEVELOPING.                                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NEAR TERM: HAVE INITIALIZED THE WIND GRIDS WITH THE RUC13 OUT TO                
03Z THEN TRANSITION TO A 50/50 BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR                 
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT SLIGHTLY HIGH WIND                 
SPEED BIAS...ESPECIALLY AS AIR TEMPERATURES INCREASE RELATIVE TO                
COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES THURSDAY. SO WILL LOWER SPEEDS 1 TO               
2 KNOTS. FOR WAVES: A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO                
DEVELOP TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. DUE TO THIS                       
SOUTHERLY FETCH A COMBINATION OF WIND WAVE AND LONGER PERIOD SWELL              
WILL CONTINUE. HAVE INITIALIZED WAVE GRIDS WITH WNA WAVES TONIGHT               
AND EARLY THURSDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE NAM VERSION OF SWAN.                  
EXPECT HIGH BIAS FOR WAVE MODEL WINDS IN LOCAL WATERS                           
THURSDAY...SO WILL LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS TO COMPENSATE. DEW POINTS                 
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT SO WILL TRANSITION FROM AREAS TO WIDE              
SPREAD FOG AFTER 06Z.                                                           
SHORT TERM: SEAS COULD BE AT MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS               
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...IN MOSTLY A SOUTH SWELL. WINDS ARE               
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THURSDAY                   
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN              
AND FOG WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH                   
FRIDAY...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING. SHOWERS                
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO                      
SATURDAY NIGHT.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ME...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NEAR TERM...VJN                                                                 
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS                                                           
LONG TERM...LERICOS                                                             
AVIATION...MIGNONE                                                              
MARINE...VJN                                                                    
</pre> me                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA                                          
204 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS                  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL                    
BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR LATE IN THE WEEK...BRINGING DRY AND                   
SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT                 
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                               
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST                
OH/NORTHWEST PA ALONG A LAKE INDUCED BOUNDARY...OTHERWISE THE                   
NEXT WAVE IS APPROACHING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS                     
WAVE WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS                      
EASTERN OHIO...AND ACROSS WESTERN PA EASTWARD LATE THIS                         
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LATE COUPLE OF                      
DAYS...THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG WINDS                 
WILL CONTINUE. NAM/GFS/SREF ALL DEPICT A SLOWER EXIT OF THE                     
FORCING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SE RIDGES...THUS WILL KEEP HIGH                  
END CHC POPS THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY THERE...WITH DIMINISHING                 
PRECIP COVERAGE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. NOTICEABLY COOLER AND                   
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL WORK IN ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS WEDNESDAY                
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S.                  
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...                           
RESIDUAL ISOLATED SHWRS WILL END WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE                   
RIDGES AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS TO THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL                   
BUILD IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...BRINGING DRY AND                  
COOLER CONDITIONS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT              
AND THURSDAY NIGHT.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                        
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT BRINGING                 
THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...WITH                     
PERHAPS A SECONDARY FEATURE FOR SUNDAY. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS                   
FOR SAT/SUN. SOME DIFFERENCES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS                
SHOWING YET ANOTHER WAVE CROSSING THE AREA...AND THE ECMWF SHOWING              
THE FEATURE DEPARTING TO THE SOUTH. WILL KEEP MINIMAL RESIDUAL                  
CHANCES FOR MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY. NEAR NORMAL               
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL FOR THE LONG TERM.                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                       
BLEND OF MOST RECENT RUC NAM AND SREF MODEL RUNS SUGGEST A BAND OF              
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CAN MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO             
VALLEY BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z. A SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED              
THUNDERSTORMS CAN MOVE THROUGH THIS AREA LATE TONIGHT.                          
RECENT RADAR DATA SHOWING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SPROUTING WITHIN               
THE LAKE ERIE BREEZE ZONE TO THE VICINITY OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR                  
SUPPORTS THE CONTENTION OF THE INITIAL THUNDERSTORM BAND. SREF DEEP             
LAYER BULK SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES SUPPORT SPC THINKING THE STORMS MAY            
DEVELOP SEVERE CHARACTERISTICS. SO THUNDERSTORM GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS               
INCLUDED WITH 3-HOUR WINDOW OF THUNDERSTORM ONSET ALONG WITH MVFR.              
THIS WILL BE MONITORED FOR UPWARD ADJUSTMENT AS NEEDED.                         
THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION WITH THE FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND              
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEPEND ON SEVERAL FACTORS THAT INCLUDE HOW MUCH              
CAPE IS USED TO SUPPORT PROPOSED INITIAL BAND AND EXACT TIMING OF               
SLOW COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SO AT THIS TIME HAVE FORECASTED A PERIOD             
OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT ALBEIT THERE CAN ALSO BE SUFFICIENT RESIDUAL            
LIFT AND INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR.              
WITH THE EXPECTED RAIN MOISTENING OF THE SURFACE LAYER...HAVE                   
FORECASTED LATE NIGHT FOG WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR AND SCATTERED IFR.               
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT THE SURFACE LAYER TO SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO            
END SHOWER CHANCES TO INDUCE WIDESPREAD VFR. BASED ON BLEND OF SREF             
AND GEFS MODEL RUNS EXPECT VFR TO BE PREVALENT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY              
WITH ONLY IFR POSSIBILITY IN ISOLATED EARLY MORNING FOG PATCHES.                
LATEST GEFS MODEL RUN SHOWS ANOTHER FRONT AFFECTING THE UPPER OHIO              
VALLEY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY RAISING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND                   
THUNDERSTORMS AND AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS.                                     
&&                                                                              
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
PA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> md                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC                             
429 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A COLD FRONT OVER OHIO WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND                      
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OUT TO                 
OUR SOUTH THURSDAY...AND INCH NORTHWARD TOWARD THE END OF THE                   
WEEK.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...                                                           
LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.                
MCS OVER OH HAS MAINTAINED ITSELF RLVTLY WELL THRU THE OVRNGT HRS.              
HRRR RUC SHOWS A SOMEWHAT INTERESTING PSBLTY W/ THIS...THAT THE                 
MCS WL DETERIORATE AS IT MOVES ACROSS W.V. BUT THAT A LN A RW/TRW               
WL MAKE IT E OF THE MTNS EARLY THIS AFTN. NEXT SHIFT WL KEEP AN                 
EYE ON THIS.                                                                    
SPC HAS ENTIRE MID ATLC IN A SLT RISK FOR THIS AFTN. THE MCS HAS                
HAD A NGT OF PRODUCING WATCHES...AND IF IT IS ABLE TO REGENERATE                
THIS AFTN THIS COULD AGN BE THE CASE FOR OUR RGN.                               
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY...ALTHO THIS HAS CERTAINLY NOT BEEN AS                    
OPPRESSIVE AS MANY OF THE LATE JULS I HV SPENT HERE. TEMPS 90-95                
THIS AFTN...HEAT INDEX VALUES 95-100.                                           
CLD WISE DAY SHOULD START OUT BTWN THE SHORT WV THAT PRODUCED THE               
RW AFTR MDNGT AND THE MCS...SO MAINLY SUNNY THIS MRNG THEN INCRSG               
CLDS W/ CHC-LKLY POPS THIS AFTN.                                                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...                                                        
UPPER TROF OVER ERN ONTARIO BEGINS TO DIG OVER THE NERN U.S. TNGT               
FORMING A SOMEHAT ATYPICAL LATE JUL PATTERN. BEING ON THE ERN SIDE              
OF THE TROF CHCS OF PCPN WL EXIST AGN TNGT. POPS MAINLY                         
40-50...BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE INCRSD BASED ON HOW THINGS DVDLP TDA.          
TEMPS RANGE FM THE M60S HIGHLANDS TO MU70S IN CITIES AND ALONG                  
CHES BAY.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                        
WED LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE...ONE OF THOSE SITUATIONS WHERE TOO MUCH OF A            
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE DRNG THE MRNG HRS MAY LIMIT OR STABILIZE               
THE ENVRMNT FOR AFTN CONVECTION. FORCING HOWEVER DOESN/T LOOK TO BE             
AN ISSUE. A STRONG POSITIVELY TILTED AND APRCHNG UPPER TROF AXIS                
WILL DIG VERY FAR SOUTH /FOR A LATE-JULY SYSTEM/ INTO THE TN VLY AND            
SRN APLCHNS INTO WED AFTN. ALL ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD /IN THE WARM              
SECTOR OF THE APRCHNG SHRTWV/...A FAIRLY INTENSE MID SUMMER LL JET              
MAX LOOKS TO DEVELOP. THIS FEATURE...ALONG W/ HIGH DWPNTS AND MID               
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SYSTEM...COULD LIKELY DEVELOP SOME AREAS            
OF INTENSE CONVECTION UP/DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD. OVRNGHT WED INTO                
THURS MRNG THE TROF AXIS WILL SHARPLY TURN NE/WRD AND PUSH THE                  
REMAINING ACTIVITY OFF THE ATLNC COAST.                                         
THE BIG CHANGE IN LR MODELS FROM 24 HRS AGO IS THE WEEKEND SET-UP               
FOR THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A DECENT AGREEMENT IS HELD              
AMONGST GUIDANCE ABOUT THE SHARP TROF AXIS THAT GRADUALLY WORKS IT/S            
WAY ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...INITIALLY POSITIVELY TILTED            
OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND MID MS VALLEY...THEN BECOMES PHASES N/S            
OVER THE APLCHN CHAIN ON THURS /DRIVING THE ACTIVITY OFF THE COAST/.            
THEN THE UPPER TROF AXIS GRADUALLY TILTS NEGATIVELY AS IT MOVES UP              
THE NORTHEAST COAST. PREV RUNS FROM THIS POINT PUSHED THE UPPER LOW             
OUT /FROM ERN QUEBEC OUT INTO THE NRN ATLNC/ BY A DEVELOPING UPPER              
ON THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...INTO THE PLAINS OF S CNTL                  
CANADA. LATEST GFS/ECMWF RUNS NOW COMBINING THE TWO SYSTEMS JUST                
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...MAKING FOR ONE               
LAST PASS OF ACTIVE WEATHER BEFORE EXITING NORTH AMERICA. AT THIS               
POINT...THE MAIN EFFECT ON THE MID ATLNC LOOKS TO BE DAILY                      
INSTABILITY INCREASES AND SCT/D CONVECTION EACH AFTN...PSBLY INTO               
THE WEEKEND IF THE SFC FRONT STALLS OR SLOWS IT/S PROGRESS ACROSS               
THE REGION.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                           
VFR CONDS THIS MRNG. TSTM ACTVTY IS PSBL THIS AFTN WICH COULD GNR8              
STRONG WINDS. FOR TIME BEING ONLY HV VCTS REMARK IN TAFS. THIS WL               
NEED TO BE REFINED LATER THIS MRNG/THIS AFTN. TSTM WL BE PSBL DURG              
OVRNGT HRS AS WELL.                                                             
MUCH OF WED WILL HAVE THE PSBLY OF EITHER SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY. BY WED            
AFTN...MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE UNDER SOME RISK OF TSTMS...ESPC THE             
I-95 CRDR BY EVNG. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADLY PUSH OFF THE MID ATLNC             
COAST EARLY THURS. DRY WX WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF THURS AND INTO                
FRI. THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE ACTIVITY AGAIN W/ SCTD TSTMS PSBLE INTO            
EARLY NEXT WEEK...W/ A PSBLE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MON.                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NOP PROB WIND WISE TDA-TNGT. AFTN AND EVE TSTMS WL BE THE BIGGEST               
PROBS FOR MARINERS.                                                             
WINDS ON WED MAY APRCH SCA CRIT W/ BRIEF PERIODS OF S/RLY CHANNELING            
FROM AN APRCHNG UPPER LOW PRES SYSTEM. TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE THE                
MAIN CONCERN GOING INTO WED AFTN/EVNG. LITTLE CONCERN FOR THE END OF            
THE WEEK...THO ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS             
WEEKEND.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
DC...NONE.                                                                      
MD...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/GMS                                                           
</pre> md                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
145 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008                                                      
UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAFS                                                        
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SLOWLY DEPARTING              
UPR TROF OVER SE ONTARIO DOWNSTREAM OF HI AMPLITUDE RDG EXTENDING FM            
THE PLAINS INTO SCNTRL CAN. AT THE SFC/H85...SPRAWLING HI PRES                  
CENTERED OVER NRN ONTARIO. BACK EDGE OF DEEPER MSTR ASSOCIATED WITH             
THE TROF IS IN ERN UPR MI WITH LINGERING SCT-BKN MID CLD. TO THE W              
AND NW...00Z INL/YPL RAOBS ARE QUITE DRY/STABLE WITH PWAT JUST A BIT            
OVER 0.50 INCH/WELL DEFINED CAP ARND H7 ABV WELL MIXED PBL. AFTN                
DIURNAL CU IN THESE AREAS YDAY GAVE WAY TO MOCLR SKIES DURING THE               
EVNG.                                                                           
MAIN FCST CONCERNS INTO THU REVOLVE ARND TEMPS WITH ONTARIO HI PRES/            
DRY AIRMASS FCST TO DOMINATE. FOCUS FOR THU NGT THRU FRI NGT SHIFTS             
TO TIMING/IMPACT OF TROF NOW IN THE PAC NW TO THE W OF UPR RDG IN               
THE PLAINS.                                                                     
FOR TDAY/TNGT...DRY HI PRES FCST TO BLD OVER THE UPR GRT LKS AND TO             
NR MNM BY 12Z THU. ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE SCT DIURNAL CU OVER THE                 
INTERIOR CWA THIS AFTN AWAY FM THE STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF THE GRT             
LKS...EXPECT MOCLR SKIES OTRW. THE ONLY OTHER EXCEPTION MAY BE OVER             
THE FAR ERN CWA TNGT...WHERE ANOTHER SHRTWV ROTATING ARND NRLY STNRY            
CLOSED LO THE E MAY BRING SOME CLD IN TNGT. DRY AIRMASS SUGS A WIDE             
DIURNAL VARIATION IN TEMP BTWN THIS AFTN/TNGT. WITH H85 TEMPS FCST              
ARND 12C BY 00Z THU...EXPECT HI TEMPS TO APRCH 80 AWAY FM LK COOLING            
MOST PRONOUNCED DOWNWIND OF LK SUP AND THE BAY OF GREEN BAY S OF ESC            
WITH NLY H925 FLOW MINIMIZING LK MI INFLUENCE AT AREAS E OF ESC.                
MIXING TO H75-8 TDAY WOULD SUG SFC DWPTS WL FALL INTO THE MID 40S               
PER 00Z INL RAOB/GFS FCST SDNGS...RESULTING IN MIN RH FALLING AOB 30            
PCT OVER THE INTERIOR. ALTHOUGH DVLPG RETURN SSW FLOW LATE TNGT MAY             
TEND TO BRAKE FALL OF TEMP OVER THE FAR W AT IWD- ONTONAGON...WL GO             
BLO MOS GUIDANCE OVER MOST OF THE INTERIOR TO THE E WITH PROMISE OF             
LGT WINDS/CLR SKIES.                                                            
STUBBORN UPR LO IN ONTARIO IS PROGGED TO LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NE ON               
THU...BUT LARGER SCALE ACYC FLOW IS PROGGED TO LINGER UNDER RDG AXIS            
JUST TO THE NW THAT WL BE WEAKENING AS PAC NW TROF PRESSES INTO                 
SCNTRL CAN. ANTECEDENT DRY AIRMASS...PERSISTENCE OF RDGING/ACYC FLOW            
UPSTREAM OF STUBBORN BLOCK TO THE E...AND INTERCEPTION OF RETURNING             
DEEPER MSTR CLOSER TO WARM FNT WELL TO THE S WOULD SUG DRY...CAPPED             
NAM IS ON THE RIGHT TRACK AND GFS IS TOO AGGRESSIVE AT GENERATING               
PCPN OVER THE WRN ZNS IN THE AFTN. BUT WL RETAIN GOING LO CHC POPS              
TO ACCOUNT FOR GFS FCST AND RATHER HI ETA MOS POP AS WELL FOR IWD.              
DESPITE SOME INCRS IN CLD COVER...TEMPS WL BE AOA EXPECTED MAX TEMPS            
FOR TDAY WITH H85 TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER AND RETURN SW FLOW               
MINIMIZING LK SUP COOLING. THE EXCEPTION WL BE ALONG/DOWNWIND OF THE            
LK MI SHORE.                                                                    
AS INCOMING UPR TROF ACRS SRN CAN BREAKS DOWN RDG A BIT MORE THU                
NGT...ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FNT IS PROGGED TO ARPCH WRN LK SUP BY 12Z             
FRI...GFS A BIT FASTER THAN NAM. PER NCEP GUIDANCE...FOLLOWED                   
COMPROMISE 00Z UKMET/12Z ECMWF FOR TIMING...WHICH SHOW THE BNDRY                
REACHING THE MN/LK SUP AT 12Z FRI. SINCE SHARP WARM FNT REMAINS WELL            
TO THE SW...MSTR INFLOW WL BE LIMITED...AND MODEL QPFS ARE RATHER               
MODEST. 12Z ECMWF IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE 00Z UKMET WITH              
HGT FALLS/DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING                  
TROF...ESPECIALLY OVER WRN UPR MI. WL THUS CARRY A 30 POP OVER THE              
NW BUT KEEP THE ERN ZNS DRY SO FAR E OF THE INCOMING BNDRY AT                   
DIURNAL MIN HTG TIME. ECMWF/UKMET SHOW SSI ARND +4C AT ERY THRU THE             
NGT...AND NAM FCST SDNGS ARE QUITE DRY IN THE MID LVLS.                         
BULK OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS COLD FNT REACHING THE SCNTRL AND E             
LATE IN THE DAY ON FRI. PCPN CHCS ON FRI WL BE LIMITED BY WEAK LLVL             
CNVGC ALG THE FNT...LIMITED MSTR INFLOW...AND QUITE A BIT OF DRY MID            
LVL AIR. ON THE OTHER HAND...LACK OF CLD COVER WOULD SUG A GOOD DEAL            
OF INSOLATION/DESTABILIZATION. PLACEMENT OF FA IN LEFT EXIT OF JET              
MAX SUPPORTING INCOMING TROF SHOWN MOST BY 12Z ECMWF ALG WITH SOME              
FAIRLY SHARP DVPA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC WOULD ADD LARGER SCALE                 
LIFT. BUT THE 00Z GFS/UKMET SHY AWAY FM THIS STRONGER JET                       
SCENARIO... SO OPTED TO REDUCE POPS A BIT TO NO MORE THAN 30 EXCEPT             
OVER THE FAR SCNTRL AND E WHERE LATER ARRIVAL OF FNT WL BE MOST IN              
SYNC WITH DIURNAL HTG CYCLE AND SOME LK BREEZE CNVGC. GOING 40 POP              
SEEMS APPROPRIATE THERE. TENDED TOWARD THE HI END OF MOS GUIDANCE               
FOR MAX TEMPS EXCEPT OVER THE W DOWNWIND OF LK SUP/NEAR LK MI WITH              
DOWNSLOPING WNW FLOW/EXPECTED DECENT AMT OF SUNSHINE. INCRSG                    
UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS IN THE LO/MID TROP (0-6KM BULK SHEAR FCST TO               
INCRS TO 40 KTS) AND PRESENCE OF DRY MID LVL AIR WOULD SUG A RISK               
FOR SOME SVR STORMS. MODIFIED GFS FCST SDNG FOR MNM FOR SFC T/TD                
83/60 AND SOMEWHAT COOLER MID LVL TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL OF             
STRONGER JET DYNAMICS THAN EXPLICITLY FCST BY 00Z GFS YIELDS SB CAPE            
ARND 930 J/KG. BUT LAPSE RATES...EVEN WITH A DEGREE OR SO OF MID LVL            
COOLING...DO NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY STEEP. SINCE SPC DOES NOT HAVE             
UPR GRT LKS OUTLOOKED FOR MENTION OF SVR STORMS...WL LEAVE OUT                  
MENTION FOR NOW.                                                                
WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HTG FRI NGT AND FAIRLY STRONG MID LVL DRYING IN            
WAKE OF COLD FROPA...TENDED TO END POPS FASTER W-E THAN PREVIOUS                
FCST. BUT MAINTAINED LO CHC POPS OVER LK SUP THRU THE NGT AND INTO              
SAT CLOSER TO DIGGING SHRTWV THRU ONTARIO AND SOMEWHAT DEEPER MSTR.             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD TODAY...AND MOVE TO THE OHIO             
VALLEY BY THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT VFR CIGS AND VIS THROUGH THE                 
PERIOD WITH TRADITIONAL DIURNAL WINDS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING               
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT SHOULD BE WITH               
CLOUDS LATE IN THE PERIOD AND SHORTLY AFTER...ASSOCIATED WITH AN                
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THESE TOO SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT LEAST THROUGH            
18Z.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP WINDS LESS               
THAN 15 KNOTS THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THIS HIGH DRIFTS EAST ON                     
FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES             
CAUSING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE AND VEER TO THE WEST. AS THIS               
TROUGH DRIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...THE WINDS              
WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST AGAIN. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE NO GREATER                
THAN 20 KNOTS THIS WEEK END. WAVES WILL STILL REMAIN 3 FEET OR LESS             
THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...KC                                                                 
AVIATION...KF/MRC                                                               
MARINE...DLG                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
728 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SLOWLY DEPARTING              
UPR TROF OVER SE ONTARIO DOWNSTREAM OF HI AMPLITUDE RDG EXTENDING FM            
THE PLAINS INTO SCNTRL CAN. AT THE SFC/H85...SPRAWLING HI PRES                  
CENTERED OVER NRN ONTARIO. BACK EDGE OF DEEPER MSTR ASSOCIATED WITH             
THE TROF IS IN ERN UPR MI WITH LINGERING SCT-BKN MID CLD. TO THE W              
AND NW...00Z INL/YPL RAOBS ARE QUITE DRY/STABLE WITH PWAT JUST A BIT            
OVER 0.50 INCH/WELL DEFINED CAP ARND H7 ABV WELL MIXED PBL. AFTN                
DIURNAL CU IN THESE AREAS YDAY GAVE WAY TO MOCLR SKIES DURING THE               
EVNG.                                                                           
MAIN FCST CONCERNS INTO THU REVOLVE ARND TEMPS WITH ONTARIO HI PRES/            
DRY AIRMASS FCST TO DOMINATE. FOCUS FOR THU NGT THRU FRI NGT SHIFTS             
TO TIMING/IMPACT OF TROF NOW IN THE PAC NW TO THE W OF UPR RDG IN               
THE PLAINS.                                                                     
FOR TDAY/TNGT...DRY HI PRES FCST TO BLD OVER THE UPR GRT LKS AND TO             
NR MNM BY 12Z THU. ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE SCT DIURNAL CU OVER THE                 
INTERIOR CWA THIS AFTN AWAY FM THE STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF THE GRT             
LKS...EXPECT MOCLR SKIES OTRW. THE ONLY OTHER EXCEPTION MAY BE OVER             
THE FAR ERN CWA TNGT...WHERE ANOTHER SHRTWV ROTATING ARND NRLY STNRY            
CLOSED LO THE E MAY BRING SOME CLD IN TNGT. DRY AIRMASS SUGS A WIDE             
DIURNAL VARIATION IN TEMP BTWN THIS AFTN/TNGT. WITH H85 TEMPS FCST              
ARND 12C BY 00Z THU...EXPECT HI TEMPS TO APRCH 80 AWAY FM LK COOLING            
MOST PRONOUNCED DOWNWIND OF LK SUP AND THE BAY OF GREEN BAY S OF ESC            
WITH NLY H925 FLOW MINIMIZING LK MI INFLUENCE AT AREAS E OF ESC.                
MIXING TO H75-8 TDAY WOULD SUG SFC DWPTS WL FALL INTO THE MID 40S               
PER 00Z INL RAOB/GFS FCST SDNGS...RESULTING IN MIN RH FALLING AOB 30            
PCT OVER THE INTERIOR. ALTHOUGH DVLPG RETURN SSW FLOW LATE TNGT MAY             
TEND TO BRAKE FALL OF TEMP OVER THE FAR W AT IWD- ONTONAGON...WL GO             
BLO MOS GUIDANCE OVER MOST OF THE INTERIOR TO THE E WITH PROMISE OF             
LGT WINDS/CLR SKIES.                                                            
STUBBORN UPR LO IN ONTARIO IS PROGGED TO LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NE ON               
THU...BUT LARGER SCALE ACYC FLOW IS PROGGED TO LINGER UNDER RDG AXIS            
JUST TO THE NW THAT WL BE WEAKENING AS PAC NW TROF PRESSES INTO                 
SCNTRL CAN. ANTECEDENT DRY AIRMASS...PERSISTENCE OF RDGING/ACYC FLOW            
UPSTREAM OF STUBBORN BLOCK TO THE E...AND INTERCEPTION OF RETURNING             
DEEPER MSTR CLOSER TO WARM FNT WELL TO THE S WOULD SUG DRY...CAPPED             
NAM IS ON THE RIGHT TRACK AND GFS IS TOO AGGRESSIVE AT GENERATING               
PCPN OVER THE WRN ZNS IN THE AFTN. BUT WL RETAIN GOING LO CHC POPS              
TO ACCOUNT FOR GFS FCST AND RATHER HI ETA MOS POP AS WELL FOR IWD.              
DESPITE SOME INCRS IN CLD COVER...TEMPS WL BE AOA EXPECTED MAX TEMPS            
FOR TDAY WITH H85 TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER AND RETURN SW FLOW               
MINIMIZING LK SUP COOLING. THE EXCEPTION WL BE ALONG/DOWNWIND OF THE            
LK MI SHORE.                                                                    
AS INCOMING UPR TROF ACRS SRN CAN BREAKS DOWN RDG A BIT MORE THU                
NGT...ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FNT IS PROGGED TO ARPCH WRN LK SUP BY 12Z             
FRI...GFS A BIT FASTER THAN NAM. PER NCEP GUIDANCE...FOLLOWED                   
COMPROMISE 00Z UKMET/12Z ECMWF FOR TIMING...WHICH SHOW THE BNDRY                
REACHING THE MN/LK SUP AT 12Z FRI. SINCE SHARP WARM FNT REMAINS WELL            
TO THE SW...MSTR INFLOW WL BE LIMITED...AND MODEL QPFS ARE RATHER               
MODEST. 12Z ECMWF IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE 00Z UKMET WITH              
HGT FALLS/DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING                  
TROF...ESPECIALLY OVER WRN UPR MI. WL THUS CARRY A 30 POP OVER THE              
NW BUT KEEP THE ERN ZNS DRY SO FAR E OF THE INCOMING BNDRY AT                   
DIURNAL MIN HTG TIME. ECMWF/UKMET SHOW SSI ARND +4C AT ERY THRU THE             
NGT...AND NAM FCST SDNGS ARE QUITE DRY IN THE MID LVLS.                         
BULK OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS COLD FNT REACHING THE SCNTRL AND E             
LATE IN THE DAY ON FRI. PCPN CHCS ON FRI WL BE LIMITED BY WEAK LLVL             
CNVGC ALG THE FNT...LIMITED MSTR INFLOW...AND QUITE A BIT OF DRY MID            
LVL AIR. ON THE OTHER HAND...LACK OF CLD COVER WOULD SUG A GOOD DEAL            
OF INSOLATION/DESTABILIZATION. PLACEMENT OF FA IN LEFT EXIT OF JET              
MAX SUPPORTING INCOMING TROF SHOWN MOST BY 12Z ECMWF ALG WITH SOME              
FAIRLY SHARP DVPA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC WOULD ADD LARGER SCALE                 
LIFT. BUT THE 00Z GFS/UKMET SHY AWAY FM THIS STRONGER JET                       
SCENARIO... SO OPTED TO REDUCE POPS A BIT TO NO MORE THAN 30 EXCEPT             
OVER THE FAR SCNTRL AND E WHERE LATER ARRIVAL OF FNT WL BE MOST IN              
SYNC WITH DIURNAL HTG CYCLE AND SOME LK BREEZE CNVGC. GOING 40 POP              
SEEMS APPROPRIATE THERE. TENDED TOWARD THE HI END OF MOS GUIDANCE               
FOR MAX TEMPS EXCEPT OVER THE W DOWNWIND OF LK SUP/NEAR LK MI WITH              
DOWNSLOPING WNW FLOW/EXPECTED DECENT AMT OF SUNSHINE. INCRSG                    
UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS IN THE LO/MID TROP (0-6KM BULK SHEAR FCST TO               
INCRS TO 40 KTS) AND PRESENCE OF DRY MID LVL AIR WOULD SUG A RISK               
FOR SOME SVR STORMS. MODIFIED GFS FCST SDNG FOR MNM FOR SFC T/TD                
83/60 AND SOMEWHAT COOLER MID LVL TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL OF             
STRONGER JET DYNAMICS THAN EXPLICITLY FCST BY 00Z GFS YIELDS SB CAPE            
ARND 930 J/KG. BUT LAPSE RATES...EVEN WITH A DEGREE OR SO OF MID LVL            
COOLING...DO NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY STEEP. SINCE SPC DOES NOT HAVE             
UPR GRT LKS OUTLOOKED FOR MENTION OF SVR STORMS...WL LEAVE OUT                  
MENTION FOR NOW.                                                                
WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HTG FRI NGT AND FAIRLY STRONG MID LVL DRYING IN            
WAKE OF COLD FROPA...TENDED TO END POPS FASTER W-E THAN PREVIOUS                
FCST. BUT MAINTAINED LO CHC POPS OVER LK SUP THRU THE NGT AND INTO              
SAT CLOSER TO DIGGING SHRTWV THRU ONTARIO AND SOMEWHAT DEEPER MSTR.             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH DRY               
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA.                                           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP WINDS LESS               
THAN 15 KNOTS THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THIS HIGH DRIFTS EAST ON                     
FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES             
CAUSING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE AND VEER TO THE WEST. AS THIS               
TROUGH DRIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...THE WINDS              
WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST AGAIN. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE NO GREATER                
THAN 20 KNOTS THIS WEEK END. WAVES WILL STILL REMAIN 3 FEET OR LESS             
THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...KC                                                                 
AVIATION...DLG                                                                  
MARINE...DLG                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
122 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO             
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND A RIDGE FROM THE SRN ROCKIES TO MANITOBA            
AND HUDSON BAY RESULTING INT NRLY FLOW THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT                  
LAKES. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY AND NRN                  
ONTARIO INTO WITH ACYC NNE FLOW ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. SOME ISOLD               
SHRA/TSRA  HAVE DEVELOPED OVER W AND SRN UPPER MI...WELL DOWNSTREAM             
FROM STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE CAPE VALUES CAPE              
VALUES HAD CLIMBED TO AROUND 500 J/KG.                                          
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)                                           
AFTER THE SHAR/TSRA FADE WITH DIURNAL COOLING AND INFLUX OF DRIER               
AIR FROM THE NORTH...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. WINDS                   
OVER THE WEST HALF SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH...AOB 5 KT...FOR                      
RADIATIONAL COOLING TO ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S.                  
11C TO 12C 850 MB TEMPS SUPPORT MAX READINGS INTO THE MID AND UPPER             
70S INLAND WITH COOLER READINGS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. DRY AIR OVER               
THE REGION ALONG WITH MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE/WARMING WILL KEEP AREA               
DRY WITH ONLY FEW/SCT CU DEVELOPING.                                            
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)...                            
BASED ON HPC CONFIDENCE AND GOOD AGREEMENT IN GFS ENS AND                       
ECMWF...WENT WITH A BLEND OF THOSE TWO MODELS FOR MOST OF THE                   
EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST...BUT DID USE A BLEND OF THE NAM                  
DURING THE EARLY PERIODS.                                                       
UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE ONTARIO AND QUEBEC BORDER...WILL                 
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE FIRST PART OF              
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  WITH UPPER MI BEING ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE                
TROUGH AND UNDER A WEAK RIDGE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE                  
REGION FOR THE WED NIGHT AND FIRST PART OF THURS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES            
SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO BE BELOW NORMAL. STAYED TOWARDS THE MOS                    
GUIDANCE...BUT THEY COULD BE TWEAKED DOWN A BIT IN SOME OF THE                  
COOLER SPOTS.                                                                   
WEAK UPPER WAVE AND SFC LOW COMING OUR OF THE NRN ROCKIES ON                    
WED...EJECTING FROM CURRENT TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW...WILL                   
APPROACH THE REGION ON THURS. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR               
RAIN DURING THE THURS NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT TIMEFRAME. GFS AND                
ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE POSITION OF THE WEAK LOW...AROUND              
1004MB...OVER THE LAKE WINNIPEG REGION AT 12Z ON THURS. THIS LOW                
WITH THEN SLOWLY SHIFT NE TOWARDS SRN HUDSON BAY BY 12Z SAT...WHILE             
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS UPPER MI ON FRIDAY. DIDN`T                
MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PCPN CHANCES FOR THURS...AS EXISTING              
CHANCE OVER THE FAR WRN PART OF LK SUPERIOR LOOKED GOOD. NAM IS A               
LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE START OF THE PCPN ON THURS...DUE TO DRIER AIR            
HOLDING ON A LONGER...BUT FELT THE EXISTING CHANCE POPS MATCHED UP              
WELL. INTO THURS NIGHT...ONLY EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY               
SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. EXPECT THE PCPN TO BE OVER THE WRN HALF OF             
THE CWA...AS ELEVATED H850 CAPE IS AROUND 500-800 J/KG AND SHOWALTER            
AROUND -2C...MOVES E INTO THE AREA ALONG THE H850 FRONT. WITH THE               
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND LACK OF SHEAR...ONLY ABOUT 25-30KT 0-6KM                
BULK SHEAR...DON`T REALLY EXPECT TO SEE ANYTHING SEVERE. FRIDAY                 
LOOKS LIKE A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING SEVERE                              
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES S AND W OF A LINE FROM IWD TO             
MQT TO ISQ. IN THIS AREA...BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE SLIGHTLY                       
IMPROVED...30-35KTS...AND MLCAPE VALUES ARE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG                
RANGE. WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE AFTN...DO EXPECT TO SEE              
SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING...BUT BELIEVE THERE WILL ONLY BE                  
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.                                               
WAVE WITH THE LOW WILL MERGE AND STRENGTHEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER               
SWRN QUEBEC ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH UPPER TROUGH ALSO OFF THE W COAST            
OF NOTAM. THIS WILL BRING NW FLOW TO THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE             
WEEKEND AND FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER CNTL                 
NOTAM. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW FOR THE              
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME VERY              
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON SAT AND SAT                      
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF LK SUPERIOR AND LAND              
LOCATIONS NEAR THERE...AS MODELS HINT AT A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING              
THROUGH. CONTEMPLATED ADDING POPS IN OVER THE NRN PORTION OF UPPER              
MI...BUT SINCE THE COVERAGE WOULD BE PRETTY LIMITED AND THE PCPN                
WILL BE LIGHT...ONLY ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LK SUPERIOR                      
LOCATIONS. ALSO BUMPED UP THE CLOUD COVER FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.                 
WITH THE UPPER LOW FINALLY SHIFTING TO THE E ON SUN...HIGH PRESSURE             
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.                  
THEREFORE...DIMINISHED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA AND WENT WITH                
NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06 TAF ISSUANCE)...                                          
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH DRY               
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA.                                           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES                
WILL BUILD SOUTH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN INTO THE              
LOWER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. AS THIS HIGH DRIFTS INTO THE MID                 
ATLANTIC STATES ON FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE            
UPPER GREAT LAKES. LOOK FOR THIS TROUGH TO DRIFT INTO THE CENTRAL               
GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARD             
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE NO GREATER THAN 20               
KNOTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.                                              
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JLB                                                                
LONG TERM...SRF                                                                 
AVIATION...JV                                                                   
MARINE...JLB                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
800 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                      
LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION...                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...(215 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008)                                        
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE               
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD CONTAIN SMALL HAIL               
AND GUSTY WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH FROM CANADA WILL BRING            
DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR                   
NORMAL WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW NORMAL.                          
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...(215 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008)                                      
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING)                                                
SFC TROF AND H5 SHORT WAVE TOUCHING OFF SHOWERS AND A FEW                       
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA ATTM. EXPECT THIS             
AREA TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND UNTIL ABOUT 22Z AND THEN DECAY AS IT                 
MOVES SOUTHWARD.                                                                
LATEST RUC DEVELOPS 500-1000 J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE ACROSS CENTRAL            
ZONES BY 21Z. SHEAR VALUES ARE VERY WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING VERY MUCH             
ORGANIZATION. SO...NOT EXPECTING SEVERE ATTM...BUT SMALL HAIL...WIND            
GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND A QUICK INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THE                   
STRONGEST STORMS.                                                               
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FOR WED WITH GRADUALLY FALLING                       
DEWPOINTS...EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN SCT/BKN FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS               
WED AFTN.  SOME POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY/RIVER FOG THU AM WITH LIGHT                
WINDS.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...(310 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008)                                       
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)                                                      
UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE CWFA BY THE BEGINNING OF THE            
LONG TERM ON THU MORNING. SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BE UPSTREAM OF THE            
AREA AND SLOWLY BUILDING OVER THE CWFA THROUGH THU NIGHT. THIS SETUP            
WILL BRING MILD TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE GFS                
DOES BRING AN AREA OF RAIN THROUGH THE CWFA THU NIGHT. THIS LOOKS TO            
BE THE RESULT OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE MODEL...AND HAS BEEN                
IGNORED FOR NOW.                                                                
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE                   
PACIFIC NW TOMORROW MORNING WILL TRAVERSE THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER              
TO LAKE SUPERIOR BY FRI. THIS SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL SHORT            
WAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA WILL HELP BRING A COLD FRONT             
ON FRI NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR WILL              
ADVECT INTO THE AREA...AND ALLOW FOR SOME INSTABILITY TO BUILD. A               
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRI WITH THE BETTER CHC              
LIKELY COMING ON FRI EVENING WITH THE FRONT. THE THREAT OF PCPN WITH            
THIS FRONT IS NOT IMPRESSIVE AS MOST OF THE UPPER ENERGY REMAINS                
NORTH OF THE CWFA.                                                              
MOST OF THE PCPN THREAT WILL END AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRI                 
NIGHT. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS COULD BE FOUND EARLY SAT. MODELS ARE              
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THE UPPER JET AND CYCLONIC FLOW             
JUST NORTH OF THE CWFA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THIS IN MIND...WE              
WILL MAINTAIN THE GOING DRY FCST. IF THIS JET SINKS SOUTH JUST A                
LITTLE MORE...WE WOULD BE LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME                     
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS FOR SUN. THE UPPER LOW SHOULD MOVE              
OUT...AND UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING               
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...(1200 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008)                                         
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROF LOCATED NEAR PENTWATER WILL SINK SOUTH OF                
LAKE MICHIGAN BY LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE GENERALLY ONSHORE SOUTH              
AND NORTH BEHIND THE TROF. GLERL WAVE MODEL CONSISTENT IN SHOWING               
AREA OF 4-6 FOOT WAVES DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL LAKE WITH NORTH WINDS            
BEHIND TROF. THE WAVES MOVE ONSHORE EXTREME SE PORTION THIS                     
EVENING.                                                                        
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ON WED SOUTH OF WHITEHALL AGAIN            
WITH GOOD FETCH OF N-NW WINDS OF 15 KTS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP WAVES             
APPROACHING 5 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON.                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...(800 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008)                                        
UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED OVERHEAD THIS EVENING...WITH A SHORTWAVE                
CURRENTLY SWINGING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. SHORTWAVE TOUCHED OFF             
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH HAVE FOR               
THE MOST PART COME TO AND END. THERE ARE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS                 
ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT SUSPECT THIS ACTIVITY WILL                
CONTINUE TO FADE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE EVENING. MAIN FORECAST               
ISSUE IS THE LOWER CLOUDS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF THE                
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS. MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 1000 AND 3000 FT            
EXIST FROM KGRR TO KLAN AND POINTS SOUTH. FEEL THESE CEILINGS WILL              
PUSH SOUTH AND DISSIPATE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW HOURS.              
LOOKING FOR A VFR NIGHT FOR THE MOST PART WITH A LIGHT NORTH WIND.              
EXPECT ANY FOG TO BE HELD AT BAY TONIGHT WITH FAIRLY STIFF NORTH                
WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK (15-25 KTS AT 1000 FT). ON WEDNESDAY...                 
EXPECTING SCT-BKN CUMULUS TO DEVELOP WITH BASES AROUND 5000 FT.                 
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...(200 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008)                                       
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH MAX T-STORM AMOUNTS OF            
1.5 INCHES. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE 0.25 INCHES OR LESS THROUGH THIS            
EVENING.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ST. JOSEPH TO WHITEHALL FROM 18Z THIS AFTN            
THROUGH 07Z TONIGHT.                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS:     COBB                                                              
SHORT TERM:   COBB                                                              
LONG TERM:    NJJ                                                               
MARINE:       COBB                                                              
AVIATION:     DUKE                                                              
HYDROLOGY:    COBB                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
215 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                      
LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION...HYDROLOGY...SYNOPSIS...SHORT TERM...                 
.SYNOPSIS...(215 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008)                                        
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE               
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD CONTAIN SMALL HAIL               
AND GUSTY WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH FROM CANADA WILL BRING            
DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR                   
NORMAL WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW NORMAL.                          
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...(215 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008)                                      
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING)                                                
SFC TROF AND H5 SHORT WAVE TOUCHING OFF SHOWERS AND A FEW                       
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA ATTM. EXPECT THIS             
AREA TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND UNTIL ABOUT 22Z AND THEN DECAY AS IT                 
MOVES SOUTHWARD.                                                                
LATEST RUC DEVELOPS 500-1000 J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE ACROSS CENTRAL            
ZONES BY 21Z. SHEAR VALUES ARE VERY WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING VERY MUCH             
ORGANIZATION. SO...NOT EXPECTING SEVERE ATTM...BUT SMALL HAIL...WIND            
GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND A QUICK INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THE                   
STRONGEST STORMS.                                                               
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FOR WED WITH GRADUALLY FALLING                       
DEWPOINTS...EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN SCT/BKN FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS               
WED AFTN.  SOME POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY/RIVER FOG THU AM WITH LIGHT                
WINDS.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...(400 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008)                                       
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)                                                 
THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A SFC COLD FRONT                
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT UPR LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS SRN CANADA.                 
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT... AND               
ARE CURRENTLY PROGGING IT TO COME THROUGH THE GRTLKS REGION ON                  
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.                                                      
HAVE MAINTAINED CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY             
NIGHT IN SW FLOW WAA PATTERN PRECEDING THE FRONT... AND HAVE ADDED              
POPS FROM GRR SOUTH AND EAST FOR 12Z-18Z SATURDAY. NW FLOW AFTER                
FROPA SATURDAY SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT FROM WEST TO EAST.                         
THE WX PATTERN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL FEATURE NW FLOW ALOFT (UPR            
LOW OVER QUEBEC)... WITH SURFACE RIDING BUILDING SE FROM THE NRN                
PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE A PLEASANT/DRY PERIOD FOR SW MI WITH TEMPS AT            
OR JUST A TAD BELOW NORMAL.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...(1200 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008)                                         
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROF LOCATED NEAR PENTWATER WILL SINK SOUTH OF                
LAKE MICHIGAN BY LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE GENERALLY ONSHORE SOUTH              
AND NORTH BEHIND THE TROF. GLERL WAVE MODEL CONSISTENT IN SHOWING               
AREA OF 4-6 FOOT WAVES DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL LAKE WITH NORTH WINDS            
BEHIND TROF. THE WAVES MOVE ONSHORE EXTREME SE PORTION THIS                     
EVENING.                                                                        
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ON WED SOUTH OF WHITEHALL AGAIN            
WITH GOOD FETCH OF N-NW WINDS OF 15 KTS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP WAVES             
APPROACHING 5 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON.                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...(200 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008)                                        
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SMALL                
HAIL AND NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS ARE POSSIBILITIES WITH                  
STRONGEST STORMS. TOPS WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW 30 KFT. OUTLOOK FOR            
VFR ON WED WITH SOME SFC WIND GUST TO 20 KTS.                                   
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...(200 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008)                                       
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH MAX T-STORM AMOUNTS OF            
1.5 INCHES. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE 0.25 INCHES OR LESS THROUGH THIS            
EVENING.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ST. JOSEPH TO WHITEHALL FROM 18Z THIS AFTN            
THROUGH 07Z TONIGHT.                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS:     COBB                                                              
SHORT TERM:   COBB                                                              
LONG TERM:    MEADE                                                             
MARINE:       COBB                                                              
AVIATION:     COBB                                                              
HYDROLOGY:    COBB                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
145 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                      
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION                                             
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MAIN FCST CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.              
THE -SHRA OVER WRN UPPER MI SUPPORTED BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH                
HAVE DIMINISHED AND SLID S OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...FCST AND MODIFIED              
OBSERVED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT AFTERNOON HEATING WITH TEMPS INTO               
THE MID 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S WOULD GIVE MLCAPE VALUES               
NEAR 500 J/KG. WITH RELATIVELY STEEP 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 7              
C/KM...SOME ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTH...AWAY            
FROM STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH ONLY              
MARGINAL INSTABILITY...FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 11K FT...AND WEAK                  
SHEAR...ONLY SMALL HAIL WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH ANY STRONGER TSRA.               
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE ARE THE TEMPERATURES                
TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                                              
WATER VAPOR AND RUC SHOWING A CLOSED LOW OVER QUEBEC WITH WEAK                  
SHORTWAVE WRAPPING THROUGH ITS BASES. THESE ARE OVER EASTERN LAKE               
SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN ONTARIO. A LARGE RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE               
HIGH PLAINS AND EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE.                  
ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SURFACE             
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A HIGH OVER HUDSON BAY AND ONTARIO. A LOW DEEPENING            
OVER THE SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN. A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES FROM              
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND. THIS            
ESSENTIALLY CUTS OFF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF AND OCEAN.                          
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MANITOBA            
TODAY...WHILE THE LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER QUEBEC AND EASTERN                 
ONTARIO. THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT EAST...WHILE THE                
ONTARIO SHORTWAVE SWEEPS THROUGH WISCONSIN. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL               
CONTINUE OVER HUDSON BAY AND BLANKETING NORTHERN ONTARIO AND MUCH OF            
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. DRY AIR ACCOMPANYING THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL              
KEEP THE AIR MASS DRY OVER THE AREA.                                            
THE MID LEVEL QUEBEC LOW WILL BACK INTO EASTERN ONTARIO WHILE                   
DEEPENING TONIGHT. SHORTWAVES WILL SWEEP AROUND THE BASE OF THIS LOW            
AND INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE NORTHERN                 
PLAINS RIDGE WILL EDGE INTO EASTERN DAKOTAS. SHORTWAVES WILL BE                 
APPROACHING THE APEX OF THIS RIDGE. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXPAND               
AND BLANKET THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY              
AND ONTARIO...AND MUCH OF HUDSON BAY. CLOUD COVER DUE TO THE WEAK               
SHORTWAVE AND A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL LIMIT HEATING TODAY. WILL GO                
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S WHICH WILL BE A LITTLE WARM THAN               
YESTERDAY.                                                                      
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL BACK INTO LAKE HURON AS THE RIDGE PUSHES INTO            
WESTERN ONTARIO AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND            
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE RIDGE BUT            
WILL REMAIN OVER THE DAKOTAS AND MANITOBA. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL               
REMAIN OVER ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE            
LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN WILL SHIFT INTO CENTRAL MANITOBA.                         
FRONTOGENESIS WITH THIS LOW WILL PRODUCE A FRONT OVER THE DAKOTAS               
AND MANITOBA.                                                                   
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL EDGE INTO WESTERN QUEBEC ON THURSDAY WHILE               
THE RIDGE CONTINUES OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO WHILE WEAKENING. A WEAK                
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN U.P.             
ANOTHER MID LEVEL WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA. THE SURFACE              
LOW WILL MOVE TO JUST NORTHEAST OF LAKE WINNIPEG DRAGGING THE COLD              
FRONT INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC              
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL GENERATE A SLIGHT               
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR WESTERN U.P. LATE              
ON THURSDAY.                                                                    
THE MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF HUDSON BAY                    
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER MANITOBA WILL EDGE INTO                  
WESTERN ONTARIO. THE RIDGE SEPARATING THESE WILL WEAKEN EVEN MORE AS            
IT SHIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING LOW            
WILL EDGE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ISENTROPIC ASCENT            
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS AND                    
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. THE LOW OVER MANITOBA WILL              
MOVE INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO ON FRIDAY. SHORTWAVES WRAPPING THROUGH              
THE BASE OF THIS LOW ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE INTO             
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND              
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT               
AND THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL REACH KANJ BY SUNRISE SATURDAY                    
MORNING. DRY AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BRINGING FAIR WEATHER TO               
THE AREA FOR WEEK END.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS FCST PD WITH DRY HI PRES BLDG TOWARD LK              
SUP.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY TO BUILD SOUTH OVER LAKE                   
SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON                    
THURSDAY. LINGERING FOG OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DISSIPATE THIS                  
MORNING AS DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER            
THE LAKE. AS THIS HIGH DRIFTS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON                   
FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.            
LOOK FOR THIS TROUGH TO DRIFT INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON                   
SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARD THE NORTHERN               
PLAINS. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE NO GREATER THAN 20 KNOTS THROUGH              
THE END OF THE WEEK.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...JLB                                                                    
DISCUSSION...DLG                                                                
AVIATION...JLB                                                                  
MARINE...KC                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1140 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MAIN FCST CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.              
THE -SHRA OVER WRN UPPER MI SUPPORTED BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH                
HAVE DIMINISHED AND SLID S OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...FCST AND MODIFIED              
OBSERVED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT AFTERNOON HEATING WITH TEMPS INTO               
THE MID 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S WOULD GIVE MLCAPE VALUES               
NEAR 500 J/KG. WITH RELATIVELY STEEP 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 7              
C/KM...SOME ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTH...AWAY            
FROM STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH ONLY              
MARGINAL INSTABILITY...FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 11K FT...AND WEAK                  
SHEAR...ONLY SMALL HAIL WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH ANY STRONGER TSRA.               
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE ARE THE TEMPERATURES                
TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                                              
WATER VAPOR AND RUC SHOWING A CLOSED LOW OVER QUEBEC WITH WEAK                  
SHORTWAVE WRAPPING THROUGH ITS BASES. THESE ARE OVER EASTERN LAKE               
SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN ONTARIO. A LARGE RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE               
HIGH PLAINS AND EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE.                  
ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SURFACE             
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A HIGH OVER HUDSON BAY AND ONTARIO. A LOW DEEPENING            
OVER THE SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN. A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES FROM              
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND. THIS            
ESSENTIALLY CUTS OFF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF AND OCEAN.                          
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MANITOBA            
TODAY...WHILE THE LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER QUEBEC AND EASTERN                 
ONTARIO. THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT EAST...WHILE THE                
ONTARIO SHORTWAVE SWEEPS THROUGH WISCONSIN. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL               
CONTINUE OVER HUDSON BAY AND BLANKETING NORTHERN ONTARIO AND MUCH OF            
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. DRY AIR ACCOMPANYING THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL              
KEEP THE AIR MASS DRY OVER THE AREA.                                            
THE MID LEVEL QUEBEC LOW WILL BACK INTO EASTERN ONTARIO WHILE                   
DEEPENING TONIGHT. SHORTWAVES WILL SWEEP AROUND THE BASE OF THIS LOW            
AND INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE NORTHERN                 
PLAINS RIDGE WILL EDGE INTO EASTERN DAKOTAS. SHORTWAVES WILL BE                 
APPROACHING THE APEX OF THIS RIDGE. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXPAND               
AND BLANKET THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY              
AND ONTARIO...AND MUCH OF HUDSON BAY. CLOUD COVER DUE TO THE WEAK               
SHORTWAVE AND A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL LIMIT HEATING TODAY. WILL GO                
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S WHICH WILL BE A LITTLE WARM THAN               
YESTERDAY.                                                                      
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL BACK INTO LAKE HURON AS THE RIDGE PUSHES INTO            
WESTERN ONTARIO AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND            
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE RIDGE BUT            
WILL REMAIN OVER THE DAKOTAS AND MANITOBA. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL               
REMAIN OVER ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE            
LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN WILL SHIFT INTO CENTRAL MANITOBA.                         
FRONTOGENESIS WITH THIS LOW WILL PRODUCE A FRONT OVER THE DAKOTAS               
AND MANITOBA.                                                                   
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL EDGE INTO WESTERN QUEBEC ON THURSDAY WHILE               
THE RIDGE CONTINUES OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO WHILE WEAKENING. A WEAK                
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN U.P.             
ANOTHER MID LEVEL WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA. THE SURFACE              
LOW WILL MOVE TO JUST NORTHEAST OF LAKE WINNIPEG DRAGGING THE COLD              
FRONT INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC              
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL GENERATE A SLIGHT               
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR WESTERN U.P. LATE              
ON THURSDAY.                                                                    
THE MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF HUDSON BAY                    
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER MANITOBA WILL EDGE INTO                  
WESTERN ONTARIO. THE RIDGE SEPARATING THESE WILL WEAKEN EVEN MORE AS            
IT SHIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING LOW            
WILL EDGE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ISENTROPIC ASCENT            
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS AND                    
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. THE LOW OVER MANITOBA WILL              
MOVE INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO ON FRIDAY. SHORTWAVES WRAPPING THROUGH              
THE BASE OF THIS LOW ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE INTO             
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND              
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT               
AND THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL REACH KANJ BY SUNRISE SATURDAY                    
MORNING. DRY AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BRINGING FAIR WEATHER TO               
THE AREA FOR WEEK END.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE SOME MID CLDS ARND THIS MRNG AND SOME DIURNAL              
CU THIS AFTN...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS FCST PD WITH DRY HI PRES              
BLDG TOWARD LK SUP.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY TO BUILD SOUTH OVER LAKE                   
SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON                    
THURSDAY. LINGERING FOG OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DISSIPATE THIS                  
MORNING AS DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER            
THE LAKE. AS THIS HIGH DRIFTS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON                   
FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.            
LOOK FOR THIS TROUGH TO DRIFT INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON                   
SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARD THE NORTHERN               
PLAINS. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE NO GREATER THAN 20 KNOTS THROUGH              
THE END OF THE WEEK.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...DLG                                                                
AVIATION...KC                                                                   
MARINE...KC                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
720 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                      
UPDATED FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE                                                    
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE ARE THE TEMPERATURES                
TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                                              
WATER VAPOR AND RUC SHOWING A CLOSED LOW OVER QUEBEC WITH WEAK                  
SHORTWAVE WRAPPING THROUGH ITS BASES. THESE ARE OVER EASTERN LAKE               
SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN ONTARIO. A LARGE RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE               
HIGH PLAINS AND EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE.                  
ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SURFACE             
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A HIGH OVER HUDSON BAY AND ONTARIO. A LOW DEEPENING            
OVER THE SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN. A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES FROM              
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND. THIS            
ESSENTIALLY CUTS OFF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF AND OCEAN.                          
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MANITOBA            
TODAY...WHILE THE LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER QUEBEC AND EASTERN                 
ONTARIO. THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT EAST...WHILE THE                
ONTARIO SHORTWAVE SWEEPS THROUGH WISCONSIN. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL               
CONTINUE OVER HUDSON BAY AND BLANKETING NORTHERN ONTARIO AND MUCH OF            
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. DRY AIR ACCOMPANYING THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL              
KEEP THE AIR MASS DRY OVER THE AREA.                                            
THE MID LEVEL QUEBEC LOW WILL BACK INTO EASTERN ONTARIO WHILE                   
DEEPENING TONIGHT. SHORTWAVES WILL SWEEP AROUND THE BASE OF THIS LOW            
AND INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE NORTHERN                 
PLAINS RIDGE WILL EDGE INTO EASTERN DAKOTAS. SHORTWAVES WILL BE                 
APPROACHING THE APEX OF THIS RIDGE. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXPAND               
AND BLANKET THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY              
AND ONTARIO...AND MUCH OF HUDSON BAY. CLOUD COVER DUE TO THE WEAK               
SHORTWAVE AND A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL LIMIT HEATING TODAY. WILL GO                
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S WHICH WILL BE A LITTLE WARM THAN               
YESTERDAY.                                                                      
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL BACK INTO LAKE HURON AS THE RIDGE PUSHES INTO            
WESTERN ONTARIO AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND            
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE RIDGE BUT            
WILL REMAIN OVER THE DAKOTAS AND MANITOBA. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL               
REMAIN OVER ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE            
LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN WILL SHIFT INTO CENTRAL MANITOBA.                         
FRONTOGENESIS WITH THIS LOW WILL PRODUCE A FRONT OVER THE DAKOTAS               
AND MANITOBA.                                                                   
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL EDGE INTO WESTERN QUEBEC ON THURSDAY WHILE               
THE RIDGE CONTINUES OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO WHILE WEAKENING. A WEAK                
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN U.P.             
ANOTHER MID LEVEL WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA. THE SURFACE              
LOW WILL MOVE TO JUST NORTHEAST OF LAKE WINNIPEG DRAGGING THE COLD              
FRONT INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC              
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL GENERATE A SLIGHT               
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR WESTERN U.P. LATE              
ON THURSDAY.                                                                    
THE MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF HUDSON BAY                    
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER MANITOBA WILL EDGE INTO                  
WESTERN ONTARIO. THE RIDGE SEPARATING THESE WILL WEAKEN EVEN MORE AS            
IT SHIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING LOW            
WILL EDGE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ISENTROPIC ASCENT            
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS AND                    
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. THE LOW OVER MANITOBA WILL              
MOVE INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO ON FRIDAY. SHORTWAVES WRAPPING THROUGH              
THE BASE OF THIS LOW ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE INTO             
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND              
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT               
AND THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL REACH KANJ BY SUNRISE SATURDAY                    
MORNING. DRY AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BRINGING FAIR WEATHER TO               
THE AREA FOR WEEK END.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE SOME MID CLDS ARND THIS MRNG AND SOME DIURNAL              
CU THIS AFTN...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS FCST PD WITH DRY HI PRES              
BLDG TOWARD LK SUP.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY TO BUILD SOUTH OVER LAKE                   
SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON                    
THURSDAY. LINGERING FOG OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DISSIPATE THIS                  
MORNING AS DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER            
THE LAKE. AS THIS HIGH DRIFTS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON                   
FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.            
LOOK FOR THIS TROUGH TO DRIFT INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON                   
SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARD THE NORTHERN               
PLAINS. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE NO GREATER THAN 20 KNOTS THROUGH              
THE END OF THE WEEK.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...DLG                                                                
AVIATION...KC                                                                   
MARINE...KC                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
345 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE ARE THE TEMPERATURES                
TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                                              
WATER VAPOR AND RUC SHOWING A CLOSED LOW OVER QUEBEC WITH WEAK                  
SHORTWAVE WRAPPING THROUGH ITS BASES. THESE ARE OVER EASTERN LAKE               
SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN ONTARIO. A LARGE RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE               
HIGH PLAINS AND EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE.                  
ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SURFACE             
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A HIGH OVER HUDSON BAY AND ONTARIO. A LOW DEEPENING            
OVER THE SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN. A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES FROM              
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND. THIS            
ESSENTIALLY CUTS OFF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF AND OCEAN.                          
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MANITOBA            
TODAY...WHILE THE LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER QUEBEC AND EASTERN                 
ONTARIO. THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT EAST...WHILE THE                
ONTARIO SHORTWAVE SWEEPS THROUGH WISCONSIN. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL               
CONTINUE OVER HUDSON BAY AND BLANKETING NORTHERN ONTARIO AND MUCH OF            
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. DRY AIR ACCOMPANYING THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL              
KEEP THE AIR MASS DRY OVER THE AREA.                                            
THE MID LEVEL QUEBEC LOW WILL BACK INTO EASTERN ONTARIO WHILE                   
DEEPENING TONIGHT. SHORTWAVES WILL SWEEP AROUND THE BASE OF THIS LOW            
AND INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE NORTHERN                 
PLAINS RIDGE WILL EDGE INTO EASTERN DAKOTAS. SHORTWAVES WILL BE                 
APPROACHING THE APEX OF THIS RIDGE. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXPAND               
AND BLANKET THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY              
AND ONTARIO...AND MUCH OF HUDSON BAY. CLOUD COVER DUE TO THE WEAK               
SHORTWAVE AND A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL LIMIT HEATING TODAY. WILL GO                
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S WHICH WILL BE A LITTLE WARM THAN               
YESTERDAY.                                                                      
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL BACK INTO LAKE HURON AS THE RIDGE PUSHES INTO            
WESTERN ONTARIO AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND            
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE RIDGE BUT            
WILL REMAIN OVER THE DAKOTAS AND MANITOBA. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL               
REMAIN OVER ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE            
LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN WILL SHIFT INTO CENTRAL MANITOBA.                         
FRONTOGENESIS WITH THIS LOW WILL PRODUCE A FRONT OVER THE DAKOTAS               
AND MANITOBA.                                                                   
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL EDGE INTO WESTERN QUEBEC ON THURSDAY WHILE               
THE RIDGE CONTINUES OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO WHILE WEAKENING. A WEAK                
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN U.P.             
ANOTHER MID LEVEL WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA. THE SURFACE              
LOW WILL MOVE TO JUST NORTHEAST OF LAKE WINNIPEG DRAGGING THE COLD              
FRONT INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC              
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL GENERATE A SLIGHT               
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR WESTERN U.P. LATE              
ON THURSDAY.                                                                    
THE MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF HUDSON BAY                    
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER MANITOBA WILL EDGE INTO                  
WESTERN ONTARIO. THE RIDGE SEPARATING THESE WILL WEAKEN EVEN MORE AS            
IT SHIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING LOW            
WILL EDGE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ISENTROPIC ASCENT            
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS AND                    
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. THE LOW OVER MANITOBA WILL              
MOVE INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO ON FRIDAY. SHORTWAVES WRAPPING THROUGH              
THE BASE OF THIS LOW ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE INTO             
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND              
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT               
AND THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL REACH KANJ BY SUNRISE SATURDAY                    
MORNING. DRY AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BRINGING FAIR WEATHER TO               
THE AREA FOR WEEK END.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT THE COMBINATION OF SOME LLVL DRY ADVCTN AND MID CLD TO REDUCE            
THE CHCS FOR SGNFT RADIATION FOG TNGT...BUT SOME FOG/ST MAY FORM                
OVERNGT...ESPECIALLY AT SAW WITH MORE FVRBL UPSLOPE NLY WIND                    
COMPONENT AND MORE RECENT RA. ANY FOG/ST WL BURN OFF BY MID MRNG...             
WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREDOMINATING TDAY AS DRY HI PRES BLDS TOWARD LK            
SUP.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY TO BUILD SOUTH OVER LAKE                   
SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON                    
THURSDAY. LINGERING FOG OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DISSIPATE THIS                  
MORNING AS DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER            
THE LAKE. AS THIS HIGH DRIFTS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON                   
FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.            
LOOK FOR THIS TROUGH TO DRIFT INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON                   
SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARD THE NORTHERN               
PLAINS. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE NO GREATER THAN 20 KNOTS THROUGH              
THE END OF THE WEEK.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...DLG                                                                
AVIATION...KC                                                                   
MARINE...KC                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
932 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
FORECAST GENERALLY PROGRESSING AS EXPECTED. DID MAKE SOME SLIGHT                
TWEAKS AND ADJUSTMENTS...MOST NOTABLY TO THE OVERNIGHT POPS. IT                 
APPEARS THE NAM AND RUC HAVE PERFORMED THE BEST WITH THE SHOWERS                
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA AND THE EASTERN DAKOTAS                
THIS EVENING. LIGHT RAIN WAS REPORTED AS FAR EAST AS KBRD AT 02Z.               
FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR POPS WILL BE                      
CONFINED TO OUR NORTHWEST ZONES...CLOSEST TO THE                                
SHORTWAVE...WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET IS STRONGEST AND THE 850MB                  
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS GREATEST. PLENTY OF LOW AND MID LEVEL DRY                 
AIR SHOULD ALSO LIMIT PROGRESSION EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH                 
DID LEAVE SLIGHT POPS IN FOR LATE TONIGHT AS FAR EAST AS THE TWIN               
PORTS VICINITY.                                                                 
UPDATED PRODUCTS TO BE SENT SHORTLY AFTER 10PM.                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008/                         
.DISCUSSION...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH             
SHIFTING EAST...AND IS CURRENTLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE ARROWHEAD. RETURN        
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL CWA. WAA             
HAS NOT PICKED UP IN EARNEST YET. ALOFT...A 300H 85 KT PLUS JET IS              
DIVING SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN WISCONSIN. CURRENT WATER               
VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG             
THE RIDGE AXIS INTO MANITOBA...AND ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE BACK                   
NORTHWEST MONTANA. ANOTHER WAVE IS MOVING EAST THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA.            
FORECAST FOCUS ON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AND INTO                        
THURSDAY...AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. MODELS HANDLING PIECES OF ENERGY                
DIFFERENTLY...WITH A LARGE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. TIMING                 
AND PLACEMENT ISSUES ARE A CONCERN. THE GFS IS STILL A BIT QUICKER              
THAN THE NAM/ECMWF/SREF. THE NAM/GFS BOTH DEPICT THE SHORTWAVE IN               
MONTANA MOVING NORTH INTO CANADA ALONG WITH THE OTHER SMALLER                   
SHORTWAVES OUT AHEAD OF IT. THE GFS PUSHES THE WAVE IN SOUTH                    
DAKOTA SOUTHEAST INTO IOWA. THE NAM PUSHES THIS WAVE ACROSS THE                 
WESTERN CWA...BEFORE PUSHING THE WAVE SOUTHEAST.                                
MODELS INDICATING A 30-35KT 850H LLJ WILL SHIFT WEST TONIGHT AND                
VEER TO THE SW AND THEN WEAKEN DURING THE DAY AS IT MOVES                       
EAST...IMPINGING ON THE 850H THERMAL BOUNDARY. THE NAM PAINTS THIS              
AXIS OF CONVERGENCE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CWA BY 6Z. WITH THE LLJ             
VEERING...A DECENT AREA OF WAA AND 850H 2-D FGEN WILL SETUP. THE NAM            
THEN SHIFTS THIS AXIS TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH THE 500H VORT                 
MAX...BRINGING THE BEST FORCING WITH IT. AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE            
TWIN PORTS WILL STILL BE UNDER AN AREA OF DECENT WAA DURING THE DAY.            
THE 0Z NAM 4KM WRF REFLECTIVITY DOES NOT BRING ANY PRECIPITATION                
INTO THE CWA BEFORE 6Z...AND THEN DRAGS THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY                
SOUTH. THE REST OF THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH             
OF THE SYSTEM...THE WAVE EMANATING OUT OF MONTANA RIDING THE TOP OF             
THE RIDGE...MOSTLY HEADS NORTH OF THE BORDER. THERE IS DECENT                   
FORCING WITH THIS WAVE...BUT THE NAM HAS THIS PRECIPITATION BREAKING            
UP IN THE IRON RANGE/ARROWHEAD. THE GFS 0Z/6Z/12Z GFS AS WELL AS THE            
12Z ECMWF...ON THE OTHER HAND... BREAK DOWN THE 500H RIDGE                      
QUICKER...AND DRIVE A VORT MAX RIGHT THROUGH THE TWIN PORTS.                    
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN CWA...AND DEPICTED            
IN THE POP GRIDS...WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY ON THE NORTHERN TRACK.                 
MUCAPE IS MARGINAL ON THURSDAY...BULK SHEAR IS DECENT...AROUND 35 TO            
40 KT IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. MOISTURE IS DECENT AS                              
WELL..PARTICULARLY SOUTH AND WEST...ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE A BIT              
WEAKER.                                                                         
ON FRIDAY...HPC FAVORS A THE NAM...GIVEN SUPPORT FROM THE 0Z ECMWF              
AND GEM GLOBAL. WITH THE GFS BEING A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED. IN                     
GENERAL...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL              
LOW AS PER THE 12Z GFS...AND 500H TEMPS OF -10 TO -13C...WILL BRING             
THE CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.                        
ADDITIONALLY...SURFACE-850 CONVERGENCE WILL BE MORE                             
IMPRESSIVE...WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE                    
CWA..COLD 700H TEMPS AROUND 0 TO -2C ELIMINATING ANY CIN IN THE                 
AFTERNOON...AND IMPRESSIVE LO LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A FEW STATIONS...AS            
PER NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS...ARE SHOWING A WEAK 600H CAP...BUT BULK                 
SHEAR OF 45-50KT...A DECENT TONGUE OF MUCAPE...SURFACE MIXING                   
RATIOS OF 14-15 G/KG...SHOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.   
LONG TERM...A QUIET WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP...WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN               
CONTROL. A DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ALONG THE BORDERLAND ON                        
SATURDAY...BRINGING THE CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA...AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE            
WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL              
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL...WITH UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. ANOTHER      
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.                                 
AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE EVENING              
HOURS...BUT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE DAKOTAS WILL CONTINUE TO             
ADVANCE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS            
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE TAF SITES AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. THE                 
FIRST PLACES TO HAVE THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL BE KINL AND               
KBRD...STARTING AROUND 06Z. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE             
VISIBILITIES AND CIGS TO DROP TO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT TIMES FOR THE             
LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.                                    
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  55  73  61  80 /  20  30  20  30                                           
INL  57  77  58  78 /  40  30  20  20                                           
BRD  61  82  63  83 /  40  30  20  20                                           
HYR  54  77  61  83 /  10  30  20  30                                           
ASX  53  72  60  81 /  10  20  20  30                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
BETTWY                                                                          
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
1007 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
INCREASED SKY COVER MAINLY IN THE WESTERN CWA. REST OF THE                      
FORECAST MOSTLY UNCHANGED.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CIRRUS BLOWOFF FROM THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DAKOTAS WILL FIGHT                     
AGAINST STRONG RIDGE OVER THE CWA TODAY. LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS                
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES WARMING IN THE DAKOTAS...AND LIGHTNING                   
ACTIVITY IS DIMINISHING...INDICATING THESE STORMS ARE WEAKENING.                
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SOME OF THE CIRRUS IS INVADING                
THE WESTERN CWA. LATEST NAM/RUC GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS CLOUD                   
COVER WILL MAKE SOME EASTERN PROGRESSION THIS AFTERNOON FROM                    
WESTERN MN...BUT MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL BREAK UP AS IT HITS               
THE RIDGE. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE SLIDES              
EAST. FORECAST ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TO POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE                     
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST FOCUS IS CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR LATE                 
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS                  
SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NW ONTARIO...WITH AXIS                        
STRETCHING ACROSS EASTERN DLH FA. QUIET DAY ON TAP FOR THE                      
NORTHLAND...WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AS UPPER RIDGE NUDGES                   
OVERHEAD. WILL ALSO SEE SOME WEAK WAA TODAY...AS SOUTHERLY WINDS                
INCREASE BEHIND DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW                
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR TODAY...WITH JUST SOME CIRRUS MOVING                   
OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE STORM SYSTEM TO THE WEST. HIGH                 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE TODAY...EXCEPT FOR EXPECTED LAKE                
BREEZE...KEEPING COOLER TEMPS LAKESIDE.                                         
TONIGHT...RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE AS SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM               
THE WEST. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH THIS WAVE...BUT            
LOOKS LIKE SCT CONV SHOULD PUSH INTO THE WESTERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT             
AS 30KT LLJ VEERS. LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND WEAK INSTABILITY                 
SHOULD HINDER WIDESPREAD STRONG CONVECTION WITH THIS WAVE AS IT                 
PUSHES SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THEREFORE MAINTAINED LOW                   
CHANCE POPS ATTM. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WILL SEE ANOTHER                  
SHORT WAVE DIVE SOUTHEAST AS UPPER FLOW PATTERN BECOMES MORE                    
NORTHWESTERLY...AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE FA.                 
NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD               
RESULT IN ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION WITH THIS SHORT WAVE AS WELL.                 
FOR THIS WEEKEND...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH NORTHWEST FLOW            
ALOFT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND            
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE NORTHLAND WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.                     
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN SEASONABLE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.                 
AVIATION...AREAS OF RADIATIONAL FOG AND LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS               
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z TODAY...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL                
BEGIN PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA TODAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS                      
PREVAILING THROUGH THIS EVENING. WHILE A FEW CUMULUS MAY                        
DEVELOP...THE ENTIRE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH            
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH A RETURN FLOW AND MODEST WARM AIR                     
ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. PRECIPITATION                 
CHANCES WILL REMAIN WEST OF OUR REGION UNTIL AFTER 6Z THURSDAY.                 
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  74  54  72  56 /   0  20  30  20                                           
INL  80  56  79  58 /  10  30  30  20                                           
BRD  81  61  80  62 /  10  30  30  20                                           
HYR  80  48  79  61 /   0  10  30  20                                           
ASX  77  49  74  59 /   0  10  30  20                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
KD/DAP                                                                          
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
255 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE NEBRASKA              
BORDER INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI THIS MORNING. MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION             
WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI BUT ISOLATED CELLS HAVE BEEN                
DEVELOPING UPSTREAM JUST EAST OF KICL. SATELLITE SHOWING INCREASING             
MID CLOUDS FROM NEAR KICL TO NW OF KOMA AT 07Z. THIS AREA LINES UP              
WITH 00Z GFS QPF AT 12Z AND WITH 06Z RUC 850-700MB THETA-E AXIS                 
WHICH GRADUALLY GETS PUSHED SOUTH THROUGH 18Z. WILL CARRY SOME LOW              
POPS THIS MORNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA IN ASSOCIATION              
WITH THE THETA-E AXIS.                                                          
AFTER THIS MORNING LOOKS LIKE AREA STAYS NORTH AND EAST OF THE                  
MOISTURE AXIS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH OVER THE            
UPPER GREAT LAKES BUILDS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGH                  
SHIFTS EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCE POPS RETURNING TO THE AREA                 
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BOTH NAM AND GFS FOCUS AN              
MCS NEAR THE NEBRASKA SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO             
THURSDAY MORNING WITH NAM FASTER IN MOVING IT EAST OF THE AREA.                 
GENERALLY BROADBRUSHED POPS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING.                       
TEMPERATURES NOT AS HOT FOR MOST OF THE AREA TODAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT            
DO RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE            
WEST.                                                                           
NO CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AT THIS TIME.                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR TAF SITES KOMA/KLNK/KOFK THRU 23/12Z                                        
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUPPORTING CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF EASTERN             
NEBRASKA TAF SITES...HOWEVER A BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND                   
RESIDUAL INSTABILITY MAY SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH              
15Z IN EASTERN NEBRASKA. THESE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND NOT LIKELY            
TO DIRECTLY AFFECT TAF SITES.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO               
LEAVE THE AREA...SO AREAS OF MVFR FOG ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FEW HOURS             
JUST BEFORE AND AFTER SUNRISE BOTH TUESDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY                
MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON                 
CUMULUS AND PASSING MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED.                                   
&&                                                                              
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FOBERT/DERGAN                                                                   
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM                                         
315 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
LATEST RUC80 UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES TWO HIGH CENTROIDS OVER               
THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. ONE CENTER IS POSITIONED AT THE CA/             
AZ/BAJA OF CA TRIPLE POINT...WHILE THE OTHER IS CENTERED JUST EAST              
OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR AN UPR LEVEL WEAKNESS             
ACROSS THE STATE OF NEW MEXICO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE               
MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WRN ZONES...PARTICULARLY WITHIN              
THE 850-700MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS AFD...           
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE HIGH PLAINS...BUT STEERING              
FLOW WILL CURTAIL ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION. AS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF             
YEAR...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS. MOST             
OF THE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BEFORE THE MIDNIGHT HOUR...HOWEVER A              
FEW LINGERING STORMS COULD SURVIVE INTO THE EARLY MORNING.                      
SIMILAR SITUATION IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BEST THREAT              
FOR PCPN TO OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL AND WRN ZONES. SOME ACTIVITY MAY             
TRY TO SQUEAK INTO THE NE PLAINS AS THE THETA-E RIDGE AXIS TILTS A              
BIT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST OVER THE ERN PLAINS AS PCPN/CLOUD             
COVER LIMITS THE AMOUNT OF INCOMING SOLAR IN THE WEST.                          
ALL EYES SHIFT TO THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE              
WEEK AS TROPICAL STORM...SOON TO BE HURRICANE...DOLLY APPROACHES SRN            
TEXAS. THE NAM80 HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY ONE OF THE MORE NRN SOLUTIONS            
AND PROVIDES SOME IMPACT IN THE FORM OF INCREASED QPF ACROSS SRN NM.            
OF INTEREST...THREE OUT OF 13 HURRICANE MODELS TRACK THE REMAINS OF             
THE TROPICAL SYSTEM UP THE RIO GRANDE INTO SE NM. THOUGH UNLIKELY...            
IT BEARS WATCHING WHETHER THIS FEATURE WILL IMPACT THE CWA. ATTM...             
IT APPEARS THE GFDI MODEL AND TPC TRACK LOOK THE MOST PLAUSIBLE. IN             
GENERAL...THE BIGGEST PLAYER WILL BE THE POSITION OF THE UPPER HIGH.            
IN CONTRAST...THE GFS PLACES THE HIGH ON FRI OVER ERN NM/WRN TX...              
BLOCKING THE STATE FROM AN INTRUSION OF DEEP MOISTURE. MEANWHILE...             
THE ECMWF PLACES THE HIGH NEAR THE DALLAS AREA...ALLOWING FOR A S/SE            
COMPONENT ACROSS SRN NM. BY THE WEEKEND...THE GFS SHIFTS THE UPPER              
HIGH TO CENTRAL NM...SHUNTING THE REMAINS INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC.             
THE ECMWF IS LESS AGGRESSIVE AND SHIFTS THE UPR HIGH ONLY TO CENTRAL            
TX...OPENING THE DOOR FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE TO MIGRATE INTO CENTRAL             
AZ. BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTY...WILL NOT MAKE SWEEPING            
CHANGES TO THE INHERITED MID/LONG RANGE FORECAST. DPORTER                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE WESTERN              
TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS                 
INCLUDES AFFECTS TO TERMINAL SITES SUCH AS GUP...FMN...ABQ AND SAF.             
MVFR AND SHORT DURATION IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE              
STRONGER STORMS. CELL MOVEMENT WILL BE SLOW THUS MAKING THE                     
POTENTIAL FOR LONGER MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR AIRPORTS. STRONG WIND                 
GUSTS WILL ALSO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN ACTIVITY. GUSTS            
UP TO 40 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.                                                  
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z. 50                                  
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER A PORTION OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH            
AT LEAST THE WORK WEEK. ABUNDANT MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THIS               
UPPER HIGH WILL RECYCLE OUT IN THE FORM OF WETTING RAIN. THE FAVORED            
AREA FOR THIS WETTING RAIN WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS.            
THE EASTERN THIRD WILL SEE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF THUNDERSTORM                     
ACTIVITY...IF ANYTHING AT ALL. TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WILL BE A                   
FEATURE TO WATCH FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. SOME OF             
HER MOISTURE COULD GET TRANSPORTED UP INTO NM BUT AT THIS TIME...A              
LITTLE LESS LIKELY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN            
EYE ON IT. HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 20 PCT THROUGH                  
FRIDAY. 50                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
FARMINGTON......................  64  89  62  94 /  60  40  30  20              
GALLUP..........................  59  82  56  87 /  60  50  30  30              
GRANTS..........................  57  82  54  88 /  50  40  30  30              
GLENWOOD........................  64  88  62  92 /  40  50  30  30              
CHAMA...........................  49  77  49  81 /  60  50  40  30              
LOS ALAMOS......................  55  83  55  86 /  30  30  30  20              
RED RIVER.......................  45  73  45  74 /  30  30  30  30              
TAOS............................  53  85  49  88 /  30  30  30  20              
SANTA FE........................  57  85  59  88 /  40  30  30  20              
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  59  87  59  91 /  40  20  20  20              
ESPANOLA........................  60  89  58  94 /  30  30  30  20              
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  67  90  68  92 /  40  20  20  20              
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  65  92  65  94 /  30  20  20  20              
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  63  88  64  91 /  40  20  20  20              
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  66  91  66  93 /  40  20  20  20              
SOCORRO.........................  64  92  64  92 /  30  20  20  20              
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  54  84  54  87 /  40  30  20  20              
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  57  87  58  89 /  30  20  20  20              
CARRIZOZO.......................  60  90  62  92 /  30  20  20  20              
RUIDOSO.........................  55  81  54  81 /  30  20  10  20              
RATON...........................  56  90  56  91 /  10  10  10  10              
LAS VEGAS.......................  56  86  56  86 /  20  20  20  20              
ROY.............................  62  89  63  89 /  10  10  10  10              
CLAYTON.........................  64  94  65  93 /   5   5   5  10              
SANTA ROSA......................  63  94  63  94 /  10  10  10  10              
TUCUMCARI.......................  66  96  68  97 /   0   5   5   5              
FORT SUMNER.....................  67  95  67  95 /  10   5   5   5              
CLOVIS..........................  66  94  68  93 /   0   5   5   5              
PORTALES........................  66  95  68  94 /   5   5   5   5              
ROSWELL.........................  69  96  69  96 /   5   5   5   5              
&&                                                                              
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
46/50                                                                           
</pre> nm                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT                                          
126 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE                    
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS WEDNESDAY                  
INTO THURSDAY...DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD                 
WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REGION.                 
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...                                         
AS OF 940 PM EDT TUESDAY...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED                
ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW MOVING CONVECTIVE                  
CELLS WITH WARM RAIN PROCESSES DOMINATING. PER RADAR                            
ESTIMATES...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMTS HAVE BEEN IN WASHINGTON                  
COUNTY JUST NORTH OF MPV...WITH ESTIMATES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES.                   
ALSO...SEPARATE CONVECTIVE CELL ACROSS FAR SERN ORLEANS COUNTY                  
PRODUCED 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL BETWEEN WESTMORE AND SUTTON                
VERMONT. LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN THESE                  
AREAS DURING THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS.                                                
ALTHOUGH 01Z LAPS CAPE ANALYSIS STILL INDICATES VALUES AROUND 500               
J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...POTENTIAL               
FOR LTG IN ISOLD/SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIMITED BY                        
RELATIVELY HIGH FREEZING LEVELS /13.2 KFT AT KALB PER 00Z RAOB/                 
AND NARROW NATURE OF CAPE PROFILE. FEEL CONFIDENT THAT REMAINING                
CONVECTIVE CELLS OVERNIGHT WILL BE FREE OF LIGHTNING AND WE WILL                
DROP THE LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN AT THIS                   
TIME. THE 850MB RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAK WAA ON SWLY                 
FLOW AROUND 10 KTS EAST OF 850MB TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE ERN GREAT               
LAKES. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATELY HIGH PW VALUES AROUND 1.25                 
INCHES WILL MAINTAIN ISOLD/SCT CELLS OVERNIGHT...LARGELY LINKED                 
TO OROGRAPHIC FORCING. AS SUCH...GREATEST COVERAGE SHOULD                       
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND N-CENTRAL/NERN VT.                
BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER                   
CELLS.                                                                          
OTHERWISE...2-M WINDS WILL REMAIN NEARLY CALM WITH WEAK                         
P-GRADIENT IN PLACE. SMALL PBL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND BREAKS IN               
OVERCAST WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOG               
WILL BE LOCALLY DENSE IN FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY                  
AREAS SEEING RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING.                                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...                       
AS OF 409 PM EDT TUESDAY...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO                   
SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING AN INCREASING THREAT OF EXCESSIVE                
RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY INTO                        
THURSDAY. UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVER THE GRTLKS                     
TONIGHT/WED...AND WILL TAKE ON A NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE                   
TILT BY THURS. THIS WILL ALLOW A DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME                
TO DEVELOP ACROSS ERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND WED INTO THURS. COUPLED                
GULF OF MEXICO/WRN ATLC PLUMES TO CONVERGE ACROSS THE AREA DURING               
THIS PERIOD...WITH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES LIFTING SOUTH TO                 
NORTH INTO FA. HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED LATER WED INTO THURS                      
MORNING AS RATHER VIGOROUS SHRTWV ROUNDS BASE OF UPPER LOW AND                  
INTERACTS WITH N-S SFC BOUNDARY APRCHG SLOWLY FROM THE WEST.                    
DESPITE SOME DIFFERENCES IN NAM/GFS REGARDING DURATION OF THE                   
EVENT...THEY ARE REMARKABLY SIMILAR AS TO WHERE THEY INDICATE MAX               
PCPN...SHOWING A WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES OF QPF OVER ERN NY AND                
WRN/CNTRL VT BTWN MIDDAY WED AND THURS PM...WITH NAM INDICATING                 
SOME LOCALIZED 6"+ TOTALS. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS (3 TO 6 INCHES                 
OF RAINFALL OVER PAST SEVERAL DAYS ACRS MUCH OF AREA) SUGGEST                   
THIS AMOUNT OF EXPECTED RAIN WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FLOODING                 
ACROSS PORTIONS OF FA. HAVE THEREFORE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR                  
ALL OF OUR CWA EXCEPT FOR ST LWR CTY AND NRN FRANKLIN CTY NY                    
WHERE THREAT OF HVY RAIN IS LOWEST. NAM ALSO INDICATES THERE MAY                
BE A POTENTIAL WIND PROBLEM FOR WED NITE...MAINLY FOR HIR                       
TRRN/WRN SLOPES OF VT.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                          
AS OF 2 PM TUESDAY...OTHER THAN A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION ON                 
FRIDAY IT LOOKS LIKE A WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH                           
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE               
PERIOD.                                                                         
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE LEADING                 
TO DECENT FORECASTER CONFIDENCE THOUGH DETAILS AND TIMING VARY.                 
UPPER TROF MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH VERY LITTLE                  
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THINK MOS MAX                   
TEMPS A BIT OVERDONE AS BEEN THE CASE LATELY. THINK THE WET                     
PATTERN AND DAILY EVAPOTRANSPIRATION KEEPING BOUNDARY LAYER A BIT               
COOLER THAN WOULD ORDINARILY BE EXPECTED.                                       
ON SATURDAY UPPER TROF RELOADS AND A RETRIGGERING OF CONVECTION                 
THAT COULD TURN INTO MORE HEAVY RAIN BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY               
SUNDAY BUT JUST TOO SOON TO TELL. THE FRONT DOES LOOK A LITTLE                  
MORE PROGRESSIVE SO PRECIP TAPERS TO POST FRONTAL CHANCES OF                    
SHOWERS. COULD BE THUNDER BUT LEFT OUT FOR NOW AS COLD CORE ALOFT               
STAYS MAINLY NORTH.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                     
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY....CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH MOST               
OF THE FIRST 18 HOURS. FOG SHOULD SET IN AT ALL SITES...GENERALLY               
07Z-11Z. KBTV/KPBG/KRUT WILL REMAIN MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL FOG.                   
KMPV/KSLK WILL BOTH SEE IFR VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS AFTER                       
07Z...THEN LIFR/VLIFR AFTER 09Z. FOG SHOULD LIFT AT ALL SITES BY                
12 OR 13Z. THEREAFTER...LOW CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW PRESSURE                      
DEEPENS AND MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE AREA. GENERALLY EXPECT                    
CEILINGS 2000-4000 FT 12Z-15Z...THEN MVFR AT ALL SITES AFTER 15Z                
AT ONSET OF RAIN SHOWERS. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE IN                  
AFTER 21Z...DROPPING VISIBILITY TO 4SM AND CEILINGS TO BELOW 2000               
FT. WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.                 
DONT EXPECT VISBYS AND CEILINGS TO IMPROVE AT ALL OVERNIGHT AS                  
SHRA CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF                       
FORECAST PERIOD.                                                                
06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE FOR                 
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED AVIATION. HEAVY RAIN WILL PERSIST INTO                     
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR AND SCATTERED IFR                       
EXPECTED. LINGERING SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD DISSIPATE                 
OVERNIGHT...WITH FRIDAY DRY AND VFR. MORE RAIN EXPECTED FOR                     
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS                 
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE                      
WEEKEND.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN AND SERIOUS FLOODING EXISTS                   
WED- THU.                                                                       
THIS EVENINGS SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE               
DROPPED NEARLY 2"/HR VIA GAGE AND MATCHING RADAR ESTIMATES JUST A               
SIGN OF THINGS TO COME.                                                         
GFS/SREF/NAM MODELS CONSISTENTLY HIGHLIGHTING HEAVY RAIN THREAT                 
SOMEWHERE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE ADIRONDACKS/ESSEX EAST.               
INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT AND                        
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EVENT IS ON TAP FOR OUR REGION BEGINNING WED                 
MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.                                 
WITH HEAVY ANTECEDENT RAINFALL OF 3-6 INCHES AND POINT TOTALS                   
NEARING 8 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS OVER THE PAST                
4 DAYS...HEADWATER 1/3/6 HR FFG VALUES ARE QUITE LOW AND IT WON/T               
TAKE MUCH TO PUSH STREAMS AND RIVERS INTO FLOOD SHOULD ADDL HEAVY               
RAFL OCCUR. CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES WOULD BRING WIDESPREAD 1-3                   
INCH AND SCT 4 INCH TOTALS TO MUCH OF OUR REGION DURING THE                     
WED/THU PERIOD AS SEMI-STATIONARY DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME               
RIDES NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA. HIGH END ESTIMATES WOULD GIVE SOME                 
AREAS UP TO 7 INCHES DURING THESE PERIODS...WHICH MAY SOMEWHAT                  
OVERDONE AREALLY BUT CERTAINLY POSSIBLE SHOULD THE MOISTURE PLUME               
SHOW MORE STATIONARITY.                                                         
IF THESE TOTALS INDEED OCCURRED FLOODING WOULD BE QUITE SERIOUS.                
&&                                                                              
.EQUIPMENT...                                                                   
THE MASSENA ASOS UNDERGOING SERVICE TODAY AFTER THE SITE HAS BEEN               
REBUILT AND MAY BE AVAILABLE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.                             
&&                                                                              
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VT...FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR             
     VTZ001>012-016>019.                                                        
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR             
     NYZ028-030-031-034-035.                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...JMG                                                                  
NEAR TERM...BANACOS                                                             
SHORT TERM...RJS                                                                
LONG TERM...SISSON                                                              
AVIATION...JAN/MB                                                               
HYDROLOGY...SISSON/GOFF                                                         
EQUIPMENT...BTV                                                                 
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
650 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA AND A WARM HUMID              
AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN MUGGY CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT                  
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 AFTER             
MIDNIGHT. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY                  
AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.                  
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
AS OF 650 PM TUESDAY...                                                         
THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 700 PM. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS              
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO WARM MOIST CONDITIONS AND               
SEVERAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE REGION. -RHJ                                      
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
SFC ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM                 
NJ SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS INTO GA. WEAK HIGH                   
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS OVER EASTERN TN/KY              
AND WV. A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FURTHER NORTHWEST ACROSS                  
IA/IL/IN/OH. A LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOC/W AN MCS THAT BARRELED              
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO WV DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MADE                 
ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL NC DURING THE MORNING...STALLING OUT IN                    
VICINITY OF THE US 1 CORRIDOR (NOTICE THE PROMINENT WIND SHIFT IN               
THAT AREA).                                                                     
ALOFT...12Z RAOB ANALYSIS SHOWED AN UPPER LOW WELL NORTH OF THE                 
GREAT LAKES IN QUEBEC...WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING                  
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO MO/AR. THE BEST DYNAMICS                 
ALOFT WERE ASSOC/W 30-40 METER 12-HR HEIGHT FALLS AND A 75-100 KNOT             
JET ENTRANCE REGION OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTHERN WV/VA            
AND PA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED AT 250MB JUST WEST OF THE             
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ACROSS EASTERN TN/KY/AL. AT 500MB...THERE WAS             
WEAK DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.                                           
CONVECTION: THE 12Z GSO SOUNDING IS SPORTING SOME PRETTY STEEP                  
LAPSE RATES... NEAR DRY ADIABATIC THROUGH 550MB...WITH A PWAT OF                
1.31". FCST SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY STEEP                
LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER                 
60S. FCST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF AVAILABLE                        
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE                
UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100F. THE BIG QUESTION TODAY IS WHETHER OR NOT                
WE WILL HAVE A SUFFICIENT FOCUS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION TO                     
DEVELOP. AT PRESENT...THE REMNANT MCS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STALLED OUT              
AROUND THE US 1 CORRIDOR IS A GOOD CANDIDATE FOR A LOW LEVEL                    
FOCUS. THE WEAK 250MB SHORTWAVE JUST WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS IS                   
ANOTHER CANDIDATE FOR CONVECTIVE SUPPORT...AT THE UPPER LEVELS.                 
HOWEVER...THE LATEST RUC IS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIFT IN              
ASSOC/W THIS FEATURE OVER CENTRAL NC...KEEPING THE BEST DPVA                    
(ASSOC/W A 15/S VORTMAX) FURTHER SOUTH OVER GA/SC. ANOTHER                      
POTENTIAL SOURCE OF LOW LEVEL LIFT MAY COME FROM THE                            
SEABREEZE...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR INLAND IT PROPAGATES. GIVEN                    
STRONG DIURNAL HEATING...IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO HEAD RELATIVELY FAR               
INLAND...AS MUCH AS LIGHT SOUTHWEST (COAST PARALLEL) LOW LEVEL                  
WINDS WILL ALLOW. HAVE DECIDED TO DROP POPS IN THE TRIAD TO 20%                 
GIVEN THAT THEY ARE COOLER/DRIER THAN ANYWHERE ELSE...AND ARE                   
BEHIND THE STALLED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. HAVE KEPT POPS AT LOW CHANCE               
(30%) CLOSER TO THE TRIANGLE AND SANDHILLS WHERE TEMPS/MOISTURE                 
ARE HIGHER...AND UPPED POPS TO 40% IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE THE               
STALLED MCS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY MEET WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM              
DEEP CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER FAR EASTERN NC AND/OR THE                        
SEABREEZE...SHOULD IT PROPAGATE FAR ENOUGH INLAND THIS AFTERNOON.               
ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON COULD EASILY BECOME                   
SEVERE GIVEN THE VERY STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WITH A                  
PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND HAIL UP                
TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS.                                                         
TONIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE VERY MILD IN THE                      
LOWER/MID 70S. WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS                 
OVERNIGHT TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT ANY ACTIVITY THAT MAY PERSIST WELL               
PAST SUNSET AND/OR PROPAGATE INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTH OR                  
WEST...BASED ON THE LATEST GFS/NAM RUNS WHICH SHOW A POTENTIAL FOR              
THIS TO OCCUR...IN ADDITION TO THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING                 
CONVECTION DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN TN...WITH FCST              
SOUNDINGS SHOWING ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT                        
CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. -VINCENT                             
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                       
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...                                                         
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VERY MOIST (PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND 2            
INCHES)...APPROACH OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND INCREASING                 
DIVERGENCE ALOFT (ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z) SUGGEST A LIKELIHOOD OF                 
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. NAM/WRF IS A LITTLE FASTER                 
THAN SLOWER GFS WHILE 00Z ECMWF APPEARS TO BE A GOOD COMPROMISE.                
NAM/WRF DOES APPEAR TO BE VERIFYING BETTER AT MID DAY WITH THE                  
PLACEMENT/DYNAMICS FOR CONVECTION OCCURRING OVER THE MID MS VALLEY              
INTO THE WESTERN TN VALLEY (GFS LOOKS TOO SLOW AND TOO WEAK OVER                
THE MO BOOTHEEL INTO WESTERN KY/TN). WHILE LOW/MID LEVEL                        
KINEMATICS RATHER WEAK...PRECIP LOADING IN THE STRONG UPDRAFTS MAY              
LEAD TO DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS. IN ADDITION...CONVECTIVE                      
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT STORMS MAY PRODUCE CONTINUOUS               
TO EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING (K INDICES NEAR 40 DEG C; LOW                  
LEVEL THETA-E AXIS OVER CWA; MUCAPE BETWEEN 2000-2500 J/KG ALONG                
AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1).                                                         
INITIATION OF CONVECTION WILL DETERMINE MAX TEMPS. IF TIMING OF                 
GFS IS MORE CORRECT...CONVECTION WILL START MUCH LATER ALLOWING                 
TEMPS TO WARM AT LEAST INTO THE MID 90S. SINCE FAVOR THE NAM                    
TIMING...LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER ETA MOS GUIDANCE.                             
WITH APPROACH OF MID LEVEL TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT                      
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT               
HOURS.                                                                          
THURSDAY...NAM/WRF MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE EWD PASSAGE OF MID                  
LEVEL TROUGH THAN GFS/ECMWF. FAVOR THE SLOWER GFS AS DIFFICULT TO               
GET A "CLEAN" TROUGH PASSAGE THIS TIME OF YEAR. BEST POTENTIAL FOR              
CONVECTION WILL BE EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE AND                  
BEST INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE.                                                   
FRIDAY...AIR MASS WILL BE CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE (PER GFS). MID                 
LEVEL LAPSE RATES UNIMPRESSIVE BUT PRECIP WATER VALUES WILL BE                  
FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL (1.3-1.5 INCHES) AND BOUNDARY LAYER LIFTED               
INDICES MINUS 2 TO MINUS 3. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS                     
DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. THICKNESSES SUPPORT TEMPS CLOSE TO                  
NORMAL (NEAR 90/LOWER 90S).                                                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                    
AS OF 210 PM TUESDAY...                                                         
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH WILL RESIDE                
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR                
SOME AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS TYPE            
OF PATTERN USUALLY SUPPORTS A SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE OF DIURNAL                 
CONVECTION WITH TEMPS HOVERING NEAR NORMAL. CAVEAT TO THIS IS THAT              
WITH NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW...POTENTIAL FOR DECAYING MCS OR MCS                
INDUCED VORT MAX TO AFFECT THE REGION FROM ANY CONVECTION THAT                  
DEVELOPS IN THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY OR THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS              
IS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST THIS FAR OUT...SO WILL KEEP POPS AOB 30%               
FOR NOW.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                       
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...                                                         
BRIEF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS            
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN MVFR FOG AND HAZE WEDNESDAY MORNING.               
A TRICKY FORECAST REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND                       
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST               
CHANCE FOR SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE RWI/FAY TAF                 
SITES...WITH A LESSER CHANCE AT RDU AND THE LEAST CHANCE AT INT/GSO.            
SEE NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAIL ON THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES.             
AT THIS TIME WILL COVER THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION BY ADDING A                
SCT060CB TO ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z THIS                              
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ISOLD SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT             
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...HOWEVER...CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE                 
MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. THE SAME AIR MASS OVERHEAD WILL               
RESULT IN AREAS OF MVFR HAZE AND FOG AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.                
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON            
AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO OUR REGION FROM THE                      
NORTHWEST. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY                
ALSO PROMOTE MVFR/IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KRWI AND KFAY EACH MORNING             
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. -VINCENT/MWS                                         
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ009>011-                       
024>028-040>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...WSS/RHJ                                                              
NEAR TERM...VINCENT/RHJ                                                         
SHORT TERM...WSS                                                                
LONG TERM...WSS                                                                 
AVIATION...VINCENT                                                              
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
211 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 ARE                    
FORECAST FOR TODAY. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL INCREASE               
WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVED THROUGH THE AREA.               
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...                                                         
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL                  
NC...SEE TEMPERATURE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS...                       
SFC ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM NJ              
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS INTO GA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE             
WAS LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS OVER EASTERN TN/KY AND WV. A             
WEAK COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FURTHER NORTHWEST ACROSS IA/IL/IN/OH. A             
LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOC/W AN MCS THAT BARRELED THROUGH THE OHIO            
VALLEY INTO WV DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MADE ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL             
NC DURING THE MORNING...STALLING OUT IN VICINITY OF THE US 1                    
CORRIDOR (NOTICE THE PROMINENT WIND SHIFT IN THAT AREA).                        
ALOFT...12Z RAOB ANALYSIS SHOWED AN UPPER LOW WELL NORTH OF THE                 
GREAT LAKES IN QUEBEC...WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING                  
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO MO/AR. THE BEST DYNAMICS                 
ALOFT WERE ASSOC/W 30-40 METER 12-HR HEIGHT FALLS AND A 75-100 KNOT             
JET ENTRANCE REGION OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTHERN WV/VA            
AND PA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED AT 250MB JUST WEST OF THE             
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ACROSS EASTERN TN/KY/AL. AT 500MB...THERE WAS             
WEAK DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.                                           
TODAY:                                                                          
THE TEMPERATURE AND CONVECTIVE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON IS PRETTY                
CHALLENGING...DUE PRIMARILY TO THE LARGE MCS THAT PROPAGATED INTO               
THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM             
THE REMNANT MCS STALLED OUT ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING. THE                 
FORECAST IS AS FOLLOWS:                                                         
CONVECTION:                                                                     
THE 12Z GSO SOUNDING IS SPORTING SOME PRETTY STEEP LAPSE RATES...               
NEAR DRY ADIABATIC THROUGH 550MB...WITH A PWAT OF 1.31". FCST                   
SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL              
LAPSE RATES...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. FCST                     
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY THIS                 
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR               
100F. THE BIG QUESTION TODAY IS WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL HAVE A                   
SUFFICIENT FOCUS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. AT                        
PRESENT...THE REMNANT MCS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STALLED OUT AROUND THE US            
1 CORRIDOR IS A GOOD CANDIDATE FOR A LOW LEVEL FOCUS. THE WEAK 250MB            
SHORTWAVE JUST WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS IS ANOTHER CANDIDATE FOR                   
CONVECTIVE SUPPORT...AT THE UPPER LEVELS. HOWEVER...THE LATEST RUC              
IS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIFT IN ASSOC/W THIS FEATURE OVER             
CENTRAL NC...KEEPING THE BEST DPVA (ASSOC/W A 15/S VORTMAX) FURTHER             
SOUTH OVER GA/SC. ANOTHER POTENTIAL SOURCE OF LOW LEVEL LIFT MAY                
COME FROM THE SEABREEZE...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR INLAND IT PROPAGATES.            
GIVEN STRONG DIURNAL HEATING...IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO HEAD RELATIVELY             
FAR INLAND...AS MUCH AS LIGHT SOUTHWEST (COAST PARALLEL) LOW LEVEL              
WINDS WILL ALLOW. HAVE DECIDED TO DROP POPS IN THE TRIAD TO 20%                 
GIVEN THAT THEY ARE COOLER/DRIER THAN ANYWHERE ELSE...AND ARE BEHIND            
THE STALLED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. HAVE KEPT POPS AT LOW CHANCE (30%)                
CLOSER TO THE TRIANGLE AND SANDHILLS WHERE TEMPS/MOISTURE ARE                   
HIGHER...AND UPPED POPS TO 40% IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE THE                   
STALLED MCS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY MEET WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM              
DEEP CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER FAR EASTERN NC AND/OR THE                        
SEABREEZE...SHOULD IT PROPAGATE FAR ENOUGH INLAND THIS AFTERNOON.               
ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON COULD EASILY BECOME SEVERE            
GIVEN THE VERY STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WITH A PRIMARY                 
THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE            
OF NICKELS.                                                                     
TEMPERATURES:                                                                   
TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION             
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE                
THAT AREAS FROM THE TRIANGLE SOUTH/EAST SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM                  
MAKING IT INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100F THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON               
THICKNESSES AND MOS GUIDANCE...WHILE THE TRIAD AREA MAY TOP OUT IN              
THE MID 90S...DEPENDING HOW MUCH AIRMASS MODIFICATION OCCURRED IN               
ASSOC/W THE MCS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PASSAGE. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE               
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE HEAT ADVISORY AREA AS OF 17Z...               
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES ALREADY BETWEEN 100-104F. THE HEAT ADVISORY              
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM THIS EVENING.                                
TONIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE VERY MILD IN THE LOWER/MID            
70S. WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVERNIGHT TO              
TAKE INTO ACCOUNT ANY ACTIVITY THAT MAY PERSIST WELL PAST SUNSET                
AND/OR PROPAGATE INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTH OR WEST...BASED ON              
THE LATEST GFS/NAM RUNS WHICH SHOW A POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO                      
OCCUR...IN ADDITION TO THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING CONVECTION              
DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN TN...WITH FCST SOUNDINGS               
SHOWING ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT CONVECTION THROUGHOUT            
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. -VINCENT                                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...                               
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...                                                         
MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS DROP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY LATE                   
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL WINDS                  
OVER NORTH CAROLINA INCREASING TO 15 TO 30 KNOTS BY LATE AFTERNOON              
WEDNESDAY. LIKELY RAIN CHANCES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HEAVIER              
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MORE LIKELY NEAR AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64. CHANCES              
FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                
THE LATEST NAM...ECMWF AND GFS MODEL RUNS HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY                    
ADVANCED THE MID LEVEL TROUGH POSITION THURSDAY MORNING... TO                   
WHERE THURSDAY COULD TURN OUT ENTIRELY DRY. THE CANADIAN AND NAVY               
NOGAPS CONTINUE SLOWER WITH THIS TROUGH AND LINGER RAIN CHANCES                 
OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...AT LEAST IN THE EAST HALF. CONFIDENT              
ENOUGH TO REMOVE RAIN FROM THE WEST FOR THURSDAY...BUT WILL DELAY               
DRYING OUT THE EAST UNTIL NEAR SUNSET. IF THE MORNING MODELS                    
CONFIRM THE DRYING TREND...THE EAST MAY END UP BEING DRY THURSDAY               
AS WELL.                                                                        
CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE ACCEPTED. MORNING LOWS 68 TO 73.              
AFTERNOON HIGHS 88 TO 93. -RLH                                                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                           
AS OF 410 AM TUESDAY...                                                         
INITIALLY WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL                
BACK TO WEST SOUTHWESTERLY IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING VORTEX                    
OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.            
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A BROAD LOW LEVEL WARM MOIST ADVECTION AND MCS            
BEARING REGIME FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES                
THROUGH SATURDAY... IN THE CONFLUENT FLOW TO THE WEST OF THE                    
LONGWAVE TROUGH ATTENDANT THE SOUTHERN CANADA VORTEX. THEN AS THE               
TROUGH ALOFT SHARPENS... ADDED LIFT FROM THE UPPER JET MAY CREEP                
CLOSE ENOUGH TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH                    
MONDAY.                                                                         
THUS...INITIALLY DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIR ON FRIDAY -- IN THE WAKE OF              
THE TROUGH FROM THE SHORT TERM -- MAY MOISTEN RATHER QUICKLY FROM               
THE WEST FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT... AS THE AFOREMENTIONED THETA-E                  
ADVECTION AND LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSES ALOFT (PERHAPS IN THE FORM OF              
AN MCV) PROVIDE FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER OUR REGION. WILL                    
ACCORDINGLY DELAY POPS FOR MOST OF THE DAY FRIDAY WHEN THE                      
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LINGERS... THEN CARRY A CHANCE POP INTO THE                
LATE EVENING HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE ARRIVAL OF MCS                   
RESIDUALS FROM THE TN VALLEY.                                                   
THIS TREND OF RESIDUAL MCS ACTIVITY OR RENEWED DEEP CONVECTIVE                  
DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR REGION FROM UPSTREAM MCV`S OR DIFFICULT TO TIME            
LOW AMPLITUDE BAROCLINIC WAVES/SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT WILL THEN                
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD... AS WE REMAIN IN A RELATIVELY MOIST               
AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD            
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR HIGHS AND WITHIN A             
FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 70 DEGREES FOR LOWS. -MWS                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...                                                         
BRIEF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS            
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN MVFR FOG AND HAZE WEDNESDAY MORNING.               
A TRICKY FORECAST REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND                       
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST               
CHANCE FOR SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE RWI/FAY TAF                 
SITES...WITH A LESSER CHANCE AT RDU AND THE LEAST CHANCE AT INT/GSO.            
SEE NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAIL ON THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES.             
AT THIS TIME WILL COVER THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION BY ADDING A                
SCT060CB TO ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z THIS                              
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ISOLD SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT             
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...HOWEVER...CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE                 
MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. THE SAME AIR MASS OVERHEAD WILL               
RESULT IN AREAS OF MVFR HAZE AND FOG AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.                
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON            
AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO OUR REGION FROM THE                      
NORTHWEST. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY                
ALSO PROMOTE MVFR/IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KRWI AND KFAY EACH MORNING             
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. -VINCENT/MWS                                         
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ009>011-                       
024>028-040>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT                                                              
NEAR TERM...VINCENT                                                             
SHORT TERM...RLH                                                                
LONG TERM...MWS                                                                 
AVIATION...VINCENT/MWS                                                          
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
1035 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HOT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING            
THE CENTURY MARK. A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE                 
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.                                   
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                  
AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...                                                        
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS A TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM NJ                
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS INTO GA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE             
WAS LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS OVER EASTERN TN/KY AND WV. A             
WEAK COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FURTHER NORTHWEST ACROSS IA/IL/IN/OH. A             
LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOC/W AN MCS THAT BARRELED THROUGH THE                 
OHIO VALLEY INTO WV DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WAS LOCATED OVER THE             
SOUTHWEST VA MOUNTAINS...HEADED SOUTHEAST DIRECTLY TOWARD CENTRAL               
NC. DEWPOINTS ACROSS CENTRAL NC RANGED FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.           
ALOFT...12Z RAOB ANALYSIS SHOWED AN UPPER LOW WELL NORTH OF THE                 
GREAT LAKES IN QUEBEC...WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING                  
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO MO/AR. THE BEST DYNAMICS                 
ALOFT WERE ASSOC/W 30-40 METER 12-HR HEIGHT FALLS AND A 75-100 KNOT             
JET ENTRANCE REGION OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTHERN WV/VA            
AND PA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED AT 250MB JUST WEST OF THE             
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ACROSS EASTERN TN/KY/AL. AT 500MB...THERE WAS             
WEAK DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. AT 850MB...THERE WAS DECENT               
SPEED CONVERGENCE ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN NC (RNK 30KT NORTHWEST                
WIND...GSO 10KT WESTERLY WIND).                                                 
TODAY:                                                                          
THE TEMPERATURE AND CONVECTIVE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON IS PRETTY                
CHALLENGING...DUE PRIMARILY TO THE LARGE MCS THAT PROPAGATED INTO               
THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE REMNANT OUTFLOW                   
BOUNDARY CONTINUES TOWARD CENTRAL NC AS OF 14Z...AND WAS LOCATED                
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE INTERFACE OF THE MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS OF SOUTHWEST            
VA AND NORTHWEST NC. THE FORECAST IS AS FOLLOWS:                                
CONVECTION:                                                                     
THE 12Z GSO SOUNDING IS SPORTING SOME PRETTY STEEP LAPSE RATES...               
NEAR DRY ADIABATIC THROUGH 550MB...WITH A PWAT OF 1.31". FCST                   
SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL              
LAPSE RATES...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S.             
EVEN WITH SFC DEWPOINTS DROPPING FROM THEIR PRESENT VALUES IN THE               
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S...FCST SOUNDINGS ARE              
SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH                
TEMPS EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100F. THE BIG                
QUESTION TODAY IS WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL HAVE A SUFFICIENT FOCUS FOR            
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. AT PRESENT...THE REMNANT MCS                   
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HEADED THIS WAY IS A GOOD CANDIDATE FOR A LOW LEVEL            
FOCUS...HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY MAY MIX OUT/WEAKEN AND SLOW DOWN ONCE            
IT SPILLS OFF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT             
OF NC...AND IT IS DIFFICULT TO ANTICIPATE HOW MUCH LIFT WILL BE                 
ASSOC/W THIS FEATURE. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS ALREADY INITIATING                
CONVECTION IN SOUTH CENTRAL VA. THE WEAK 250MB SHORTWAVE JUST WEST              
OF THE MOUNTAINS IS ANOTHER CANDIDATE FOR CONVECTIVE SUPPORT...AT               
THE UPPER LEVELS. HOWEVER...THE LATEST RUC IS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN               
THE WAY OF LIFT IN ASSOC/W THIS FEATURE OVER CENTRAL NC...KEEPING               
THE BEST DPVA (ASSOC/W A 15/S VORTMAX) FURTHER SOUTH OVER GA/SC.                
ANOTHER POTENTIAL SOURCE OF LOW LEVEL LIFT MAY COME FROM THE                    
SEABREEZE...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR INLAND IT PROPAGATES. GIVEN STRONG             
DIURNAL HEATING...IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO HEAD RELATIVELY FAR                      
INLAND...AS MUCH AS LIGHT SOUTHWEST (COAST PARALLEL) LOW LEVEL WINDS            
WILL ALLOW. AT THIS TIME WILL SHOW LOW CHANCE (30%) POPS ACROSS THE             
ENTIRE CWA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF STRONG INSTABILITY             
AND A FEW POSSIBLE SOURCES FOR LIFT...WHICH MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO                
PINPOINT ONE AREA OVER ANOTHER FOR A `HIGHER` CHANCE. WILL NEED TO              
WATCH THE SE COASTAL PLAIN...HOWEVER...AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT            
THE SEABREEZE MAY INDEED PUNCH INLAND FAR ENOUGH TO ENHANCE CHANCES             
IN THAT AREA. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON COULD EASILY            
BECOME SEVERE GIVEN THE VERY STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WITH             
A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.                         
TEMPERATURES:                                                                   
TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR INTO THE AREA THE                   
REMNANT MCS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL PENETRATE...AND HOW MUCH CLOUD                
COVER / CONVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT             
INDICATIONS ARE THAT AREAS FROM THE TRIANGLE SOUTH/EAST SHOULD HAVE             
NO PROBLEM MAKING IT INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100F THIS AFTERNOON             
BASED ON THICKNESSES AND MOS GUIDANCE...WHILE THE TRIAD AREA MAY TOP            
OUT IN THE MID/UPPER 90S...DEPENDING HOW MUCH (IF ANY) AIRMASS                  
MODIFICATION OCCURRED IN ASSOC/W THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PASSAGE.                  
ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...               
THEY ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S THIS AFTERNOON IN              
RESPONSE TO STRONG DIURNAL MIXING. IF THIS OCCURS AS EXPECTED...                
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 104F THIS AFTERNOON.                  
HOWEVER...IF THEY SOMEHOW MANAGE TO STAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR               
70F...THEN HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD EXCEED 105F FOR A FEW HOURS IN               
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE SANDHILLS...COASTAL PLAIN AND POTENTIALLY THE             
TRIANGLE AREA AS WELL. IF THIS OCCURRED...WE WOULD TECHNICALLY BE AT            
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. GIVEN THAT THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY                
WITH TEMPS/DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON...PREFER TO NOT ISSUE A HEAT                
ADVISORY...AND WILL MAKE SURE THERE IS ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAT IN             
THE HWO.                                                                        
TONIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE VERY MILD IN THE LOWER/MID            
70S. WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVERNIGHT TO              
TAKE INTO ACCOUNT ANY ACTIVITY THAT MAY PERSIST WELL PAST SUNSET                
AND/OR PROPAGATE INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTH OR WEST...BASED ON              
THE LATEST GFS/NAM RUNS WHICH SHOW A POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO                      
OCCUR...WITH FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWING ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO              
SUPPORT CONVECTION. -VINCENT                                                    
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...                               
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...                                                         
MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS DROP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY LATE                   
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL WINDS                  
OVER NORTH CAROLINA INCREASING TO 15 TO 30 KNOTS BY LATE AFTERNOON              
WEDNESDAY. LIKELY RAIN CHANCES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HEAVIER              
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MORE LIKELY NEAR AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64. CHANCES              
FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                
THE LATEST NAM...ECMWF AND GFS MODEL RUNS HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY                    
ADVANCED THE MID LEVEL TROUGH POSITION THURSDAY MORNING... TO                   
WHERE THURSDAY COULD TURN OUT ENTIRELY DRY. THE CANADIAN AND NAVY               
NOGAPS CONTINUE SLOWER WITH THIS TROUGH AND LINGER RAIN CHANCES                 
OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...AT LEAST IN THE EAST HALF. CONFIDENT              
ENOUGH TO REMOVE RAIN FROM THE WEST FOR THURSDAY...BUT WILL DELAY               
DRYING OUT THE EAST UNTIL NEAR SUNSET. IF THE MORNING MODELS                    
CONFIRM THE DRYING TREND...THE EAST MAY END UP BEING DRY THURSDAY               
AS WELL.                                                                        
CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE ACCEPTED. MORNING LOWS 68 TO 73.              
AFTERNOON HIGHS 88 TO 93. -RLH                                                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                           
AS OF 410 AM TUESDAY...                                                         
INITIALLY WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL                
BACK TO WEST SOUTHWESTERLY IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING VORTEX                    
OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.            
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A BROAD LOW LEVEL WARM MOIST ADVECTION AND MCS            
BEARING REGIME FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES                
THROUGH SATURDAY... IN THE CONFLUENT FLOW TO THE WEST OF THE                    
LONGWAVE TROUGH ATTENDANT THE SOUTHERN CANADA VORTEX. THEN AS THE               
TROUGH ALOFT SHARPENS... ADDED LIFT FROM THE UPPER JET MAY CREEP                
CLOSE ENOUGH TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH                    
MONDAY.                                                                         
THUS...INITIALLY DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIR ON FRIDAY -- IN THE WAKE OF              
THE TROUGH FROM THE SHORT TERM -- MAY MOISTEN RATHER QUICKLY FROM               
THE WEST FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT... AS THE AFOREMENTIONED THETA-E                  
ADVECTION AND LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSES ALOFT (PERHAPS IN THE FORM OF              
AN MCV) PROVIDE FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER OUR REGION. WILL                    
ACCORDINGLY DELAY POPS FOR MOST OF THE DAY FRIDAY WHEN THE                      
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LINGERS... THEN CARRY A CHANCE POP INTO THE                
LATE EVENING HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE ARRIVAL OF MCS                   
RESIDUALS FROM THE TN VALLEY.                                                   
THIS TREND OF RESIDUAL MCS ACTIVITY OR RENEWED DEEP CONVECTIVE                  
DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR REGION FROM UPSTREAM MCV`S OR DIFFICULT TO TIME            
LOW AMPLITUDE BAROCLINIC WAVES/SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT WILL THEN                
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD... AS WE REMAIN IN A RELATIVELY MOIST               
AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD            
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR HIGHS AND WITHIN A             
FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 70 DEGREES FOR LOWS. -MWS                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
AS OF 720 AM TUESDAY...                                                         
BRIEF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS                     
AFTERNOON AND EVENING... THEN MVFR FOG AND HAZE WEDNESDAY MORNING.              
A TRICKY FORECAST REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND                       
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY              
AND ASSOCIATED PRONOUNCED RAIN-COOLED MESO-HIGH... GENERATED BY AN              
OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER THE OHIO VALLEY... WAS SITUATED             
ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AT SUNRISE THIS               
MORNING. PURE EXTRAPOLATION OF THIS FEATURE HAS IT ON THE DOORSTEP              
OF THE WESTERN TERMINALS AROUND 15Z... THEN SOUTHEASTWARD TO KFAY BY            
18Z. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT SURFACE HEATING WILL HAVE SUFFICIENTLY                 
DESTABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE BY 15Z... SO ASIDE FROM A BRIEF WIND                
SHIFT TO NORTHWEST... THE BOUNDARY MAY PASS WITH LITTLE FANFARE AT              
WESTERN TERMINALS. HOWEVER... IT MAY TRIGGER RENEWED SHOWERS AND                
THUNDERSTORMS BY THE TIME IT ARRIVES AT KRDU... AND ESPECIALLY KFAY             
AND KRWI... WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO BE AROUND 90 DEGREES BY               
THAT TIME. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN LIKELY                
DEVELOP TO THE WEST... ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF APPALACHIANS AND IN             
THE FOOTHILLS. THESE STORMS COULD PROPAGATE EASTWARD INTO THE KGSO              
AND KINT VICINITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. HAVE                    
INCLUDED ONLY A CB CLOUD GROUP IN THE TAFS GIVEN THE STILL SOMEWHAT             
UNCERTAIN TIMING AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE               
FORECAST INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM THE                   
SURFACE TO THE MID LEVELS WILL PROVIDE AMPLE ENERGY FOR STRONG                  
(POTENTIALLY DAMAGING) WIND GUSTS IN ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.                   
LOOKING BEYOND TUESDAY EVENING... THE SAME AIR MASS OVERHEAD WILL               
RESULT IN MVFR HAZE AND FOG AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED                  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND                  
EVENING... AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.            
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY ALSO PROMOTE              
MVFR/IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KRWI AND KFAY EACH MORNING THURSDAY                 
THROUGH SATURDAY. -MWS                                                          
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT                                                              
NEAR TERM...VINCENT                                                             
SHORT TERM...RLH                                                                
LONG TERM...MWS                                                                 
AVIATION...MWS                                                                  
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND                                            
415 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...                                   
SOME OF THE RICHEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OF THE SUMMER IS ON OUR             
DOORSTEP AND SHOULD BE WELL IN PLACE BY LATE WED...WHEN 00Z MODELS              
ARE QUITE AGREEABLE TO LOCAL MID/UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS. THIS MAKES              
FOR AN INCREASING RISK OF THUNDER AND SEVERE POTENTIAL AS AN UPPER              
RIDGE AXIS PEAKS OVER ND TODAY AND IS REPLACED BY SW FLOW ALOFT AND             
TWO IF NOT THREE S/W`S...EACH GROWING IN STRENGTH UNTIL THE PRIMARY             
WAVE PASSES ON THU. THE 00Z MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC             
SCALE AND AS A RESULT THE FCST DATABASE IS A MIX OF ALL...THOUGH IT             
IS WORTH NOTHING THAT THE 00Z GFS IS THE DRIEST SOLUTION 06-18Z WED.            
THE MODEL ALSO INITIALIZED SFC DEWPOINT FIELDS POORLY AND THIS HAS              
PROPAGATED UNTIL AT LEAST 06Z...THOUGH ITS MOS PRODUCTS RESOLVE THE             
SITUATION MORE CLEARLY. AS A RESULT...A BIT MORE WEIGHT WAS PUT INTO            
THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION WITH THIS RELEASE.                                         
FIRST...LOW/MID LVL THETA-E ADVECTION IS DRIVING ELEVATED CONVECTION            
IN THE FAR SW ATTM. RADAR SIGNATURES SUGGEST ENOUGH STRENGTH TO                 
SUPPORT SOME HAIL. THE 06Z RUC KEEPS THIS ACTIVITY AROUND IN                    
THE SW INTO THE MORNING HOURS.                                                  
MOIST SE FLOW STRENGTHENS THE NEXT 36 HRS...REFLECTED IN SFC WINDS              
WHICH GET GUSTY IN THE SW LATE TDY AND CENTRAL WED WHEN MODELS MIX              
TO NEARLY 800 MB WHERE 30KT WINDS RESIDE. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO                
HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH S/W ENERGY TO OUR WEST...WHICH ALSO                
ORGANIZES A SFC COLD FRONT IN EASTERN MT BY 12Z WED...SHIFTING IT TO            
NEAR A KISN-KDIK CORRIDOR 21-00Z WED AND SHOVING IT THROUGH KJMS THU            
MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE HIGHEST-IMPACT WX               
DURING THE SHORT TERM...BUT TWO OTHER RISKS PRESENT THEMSELVES...               
1/POTENTIAL SFC-BASED CONVECTION IN WSTRN ND LATE AFTN/EVE TDY AND              
2/ NEWLY-DEVELOPED ELEVATED CONVECTION AND/OR A WEAKENING MCS MOVING            
INTO THE AREA FROM MT AFT 06Z TONIGHT. WHERE 1/ IS CONCERNED...THE              
MODELS ARE IN DIFFERENT CAMPS WITH A VORT MAX IN NW WY ATTM...WITH              
THE 00Z GFS SHOVING IT INTO SW ND BY 00Z WED WHILE THE 00Z NAM TAKES            
IT ON A MORE NRLY COURSE INTO MT. WE DO BECOME UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPE             
OF 600 J/KG IN THE FAR SW LATE TDY...BUT THE DEEPER BUOYANCY IS                 
FURTHER WEST IN MT. THAT SAID...IF MOISTURE DOES NOT MIX OUT MUCH               
THEN SBCAPE WILL BE HIGHER. THE MAIN PROBLEM IS WITH THE MOVEMENT               
OF THE VORT...A GFS SOLUTION PORTENDING SCT TSRA BY 00Z AND THE NAM             
KEEPING IT DRY. ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP SLGT CHANCE POPS IN THE              
DATABASE. NUMBER 2/ HAS GREATER CERTAINTY AS A 40-45KT LLJ AND                  
NOTABLE 850 THETA-E ADVECTION DRIVE ELEVATED CONVECTION AFT 06Z                 
TONIGHT. LENGTHENING MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS AND PWATS TO 1.5                
INCHES SUPPORT DEEP MOIST CONVECTION...AND A RESERVOIR OF MODERATE              
INSTABILITY /MUCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG/ IS AVAILABLE TO ELEVATED                 
PARCELS. THUS THERE IS SVR POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY 09-15Z WED OVER               
CENTRAL ND...WHICH IS TYPICALLY THE MOST ACTIVE TIME FOR ELEVATED               
HAILERS ON THE LLJ. THE 00Z NAM CLEARLY DEPICTS THIS SCENARIO IN ITS            
QPF FIELDS. THE THREAT OF AN MCS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM MT IS                
ALSO NON-ZERO...AND IT COULD BE THAT THE EVENTUAL CONVECTION IS SOME            
COMBINATION OF BOTH NEW DEVELOPMENT AND ANY PRE-EXISTING MCS.                   
THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE INITIATION OF SFC-BASED STORMS ALONG THE               
COLD FRONT LATE WED AFTN. STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG                  
DIABATIC HEATING WILL PUSH MLCAPE VALUES TO 2500+ J/KG. MODERATE MID            
LVL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 30-40KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR...                     
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS AND EVEN SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE                 
INSTABILITY. MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH LOW LVL CONVERGENCE TO ERODE                 
CAPPING ALONG THE FRONT SO CONFIDENCE ON AN ORGANIZED SVR EVENT IS              
INCREASING. MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THAT THE LLJ WED NIGHT IS FOCUSED               
OVER SD/NE AND THAT THE UPPER JET IS NOT PARTICULARLY INTERESTING...            
SO IT IS NOT YET CLEAR HOW LONG-LIVED OUR EVENT WILL BE.                        
WAVE NUMBER THREE FINALLY SHIFTS OVER THE NRN PLAINS ON THU. THE                
MAIN FRONTAL ZONE WILL HAVE PASSED THRU THE FA WED NIGHT...WHICH                
MAKES THE CONVECTIVE SCENARIO MORE DIFFICULT DURING THIS PERIOD. 00Z            
SFC WIND FIELDS SUGGEST LITTLE RESPONSE TO THE HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT...            
SOMETHING THAT MAY NOT BE ENTIRELY TRUE. WE COULD WIND UP WITH SOME             
NEW /ALBEIT WEAK/ CONVERGENCE ZONES OVER THE AREA THU AFTN. IF THIS             
IS THE CASE THE THUNDER THREAT WOULD BE ENHANCED.  REGARDLESS...WE              
REMAIN UNSTABLE AND HENCE WE HAVE ADDED SLGT CHANCE POPS TO THE FCST            
DATABASE IN THIS PERIOD.                                                        
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...                                     
FOR THE MOST PART...FOLLOWED A SOLUTION CLOSE TO THE 00 UTC GFS AND             
BLENDED WITH THE 00 UTC ECMWF WHEN APPROPRIATE IN GRIDS THIS                    
MORNING.                                                                        
MODELS/ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED              
POSITIVE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA             
THIS PERIOD. THERE ARE TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES FORECAST TO PASS OVER                
NORTH DAKOTA. THE FIRST...LINGERING MIDDLE LEVEL ENERGY FROM                    
THURSDAYS SYSTEM SHOULD COOL MIDDLE LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND PROVIDE              
SUFFICIENT SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TO INITIATE AT LEAST SCATTERED                   
CONVECTION. THE SECOND...AN ELONGATED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH                 
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES OF CANADA ALL THE WAY SOUTH            
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AGAIN...ASSOCIATED DESTABILIZATION OF                 
THERMAL PROFILES AND DEEP-LAYER ASCENT SUPPORTS MCS FORMATION ON                
SUNDAY/MONDAY. OF COURSE...TIMING LOW-PREDICTABILITY IMPULSES IS                
VERY DIFFICULT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND THEY MAY EJECT OUT AHEAD            
OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS. EXPECT TIMING ISSUES TO RESOLVE THEMSELVES             
AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES.                                                      
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE                   
CLIMATOLOGY AS THE LONGWAVE RIDGE SITS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE            
MOVING EASTWARD AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH            
PLAINS DEEPENS AND APPROACHES EASTERN MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA              
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW-LEVEL                      
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD              
OF THIS LOW PRESSURE...BUT IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL            
REMAIN WEST OF THE STATE UNTIL AFTER DARK ON TUESDAY NIGHT.                     
&&                                                                              
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CJS/NH/SCHECK                                                                   
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                       
1142 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
AN UNUSUALLY STRONG STORM SYSTEM FOR MID SUMMER WILL MOVE                       
SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY...DRAGGING A SLOW                   
MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE               
RIDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT WILL BRING HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2                 
INCHES OR MORE TO PARTS OF EASTERN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TODAY AND               
TONIGHT. SLOW IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE                  
BUILDS EAST INTO THE REGION. FRIDAY WILL BE WARM AND DRY. ANOTHER               
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER                   
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY.                                 
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
CONVEYOR BELT OF RAIN CONTINUES TO FEED UP OVER ABOUT THE EASTERN               
HALF OF MY FCST AREA...WITH ONLY SLOW EASTWARD TRANSLATION TO THE               
BACK EDGE. FURTHER WEST UNDER THE RELATIVELY COOL CYCLONIC UPPER                
FLOW...INSTABILITY IS STARTING TO MAKE ITSELF KNOWN WITH A BROKEN               
LINE OF STORMS FROM WARREN COUNTY SOUTHWARD.                                    
ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH THE IDEA THAT                 
THE FURTHER ONE GOES IN THE STATE THE HIGHER THE THREAT FOR HEAVY               
RAIN WILL BE. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST PRECIP WATER/LOW LEVEL JET                 
ANOMALIES FOCUS ALONG WITH THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX                
CONVERGENCE. WATER VAPOR SHOWS STRONG DRYING DIVING INTO THE SRN                
OHIO VALLEY...TESTAMENT TO THE STRENGTH OF THE DIGGING UPPER                    
TROUGH. THE RESULTANT UPPER JET ENTRANCE REGION IS FCST TO SHARPEN              
AND PIVOT AS IT SLIDES ONLY SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY...SUPPORTING THE              
IDEA OF A FRONTOGENTIC REGION...AND SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE               
RIPPLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE NOT ANALYZING               
THE SORT OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING THAT IS IMPLIED BY THE BANDED RADAR           
RETURNS AND WOULD BE EXPECTED UNDER THE STRONGLY ANTICYCLONICALLY               
CURVED UPPER JET ENTRANCE REGION. I IMAGINE EMBEDDED CONVECTION                 
MAY BE TAKING ITS TOLL. REGARDLESS...THE SYSTEM HAS A MORE WINTER-              
LIKE LOOK AND FEEL TO IT THAN A SYSTEM NORMALLY SEEN AT THE HEIGHT              
OF SUMMER.                                                                      
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE REMAINS HIGH SO NO FLOOD WATCHES PLANNED AT                
THIS TIME...BUT SMALLER SCALE NUISANCE FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED                 
OUT IN SOME OF THE LOCALLY HEAVY BANDS THAT MANAGE TO TRAIN ALONG               
FOR ANY AMOUNT OF TIME. WILL HANDLE THOSE WITH ADVISORIES AND                   
STATEMENTS...FOR NOW. IF THINGS DO LOOK LIKE THEY HAVE THE POTENTIAL            
TO DETERIORATE...WOULD THINK THE HIGHEST THREAT AREA FOR A FLOOD                
WATCH WOULD BE EAST OF A LINE FROM ABOUT WILLIAMSPORT TO YORK.                  
ALL OF CENTRAL PENN IS ONCE AGAIN IN SPC`S SLIGHT RISK                          
AREA...HOWEVER INSTABILITY IS MEAGER GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE                        
CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD RAIN. RUC SHOWS HIGHEST CAPES OVER SERN              
AREAS WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE NEAR 70...AND ANOTHER MAX OF CAPE OVER                
THE FAR WEST WHERE SUNSHINE WAS MOST ABUNDANT EARLIER TODAY. WINDS              
ALOFT ARE NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE SO WE WOULD HAVE TO SEE SOME                  
RELATIVELY POTENT CORES DEVELOP IN ORDER TO MANAGE ANY KIND OF                  
SIGNIFICANT WIND GUSTS. THINK THE LIKELIHOOD OF THAT IS LOW.                    
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...                        
03Z SREF PUSHES FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY THRU CENTRAL/EASTERN PA                 
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AS AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF SWINGS                 
THRU...TAKING ON A NEG TILT BY LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING. STRONG                  
LARGE SCALE FORCING...FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF JET AND                       
ANOMALOUS PWATS ALONG FRONT ALL POINT TOWARD THE POTENTIAL OF                   
LOCALLY HVY CONVECTIVE RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN PA INTO TONIGHT.                 
CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY (ALL NIGHT)...AND IN MOST               
OTHER AREAS AREAS EARLY...WILL BE TRIMMED CHC OR LIKELY ACROSS THE              
CENTRAL AND WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.                                                
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS TO -2 TO -3 STD DEVIATIONS OVERNIGHT...BEFORE              
SLOWLY FILLING AS IT DRIFTS ENE ACROSS PENN THURSDAY. 700 HPA                   
TEMPS COOLING STEADILY TO SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE WRN HALF               
OF THE STATE BY 00Z FRIDAY WILL CREATE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE                    
RATES ON THE ORDER OF NEARLY 7C/KM...ABUNDANT CLOUDS OR "SELF                   
DESTRUCT" SUNSHINE...AND AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS.                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                  
DRIER AIR GRADUALLY WORKS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST THURSDAY                
NIGHT...WITH A PARTLY TO MSTLY SUNNY AND WARM FRIDAY IN STORE.                  
COLD FRONT FALLS APART JUST TO THE SE OF C PA...THEN WARM                       
AND HUMID AIR MOVES BACK TO THE NW FRIDAY NIGHT. NEXT FRONT MOVES               
ACROSS SATURDAY...BUT WEAK SFC TROUGH AND UPPER TROUGH TO LINGER                
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                         
THUS WENT MAINLY DRY FCST FOR THU AND FRI...THEN CHC FOR SAT...                 
THEN S CHC ON SUNDAY. WENT WITH DRY FCST FOR MONDAY AND TUE.                    
GFS BLOWS UP A SYSTEM OVER SOUTH CENTRAL PA ON MONDAY...BUT                     
THIS NOT CONSISTENT WITH OTHER MODELS AND RUNS...SO THINK                       
IS A CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEM.                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                     
QUITE VARIABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. ONGOING                  
CONVECTION MOVING NE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MSOT TAF SITES FOR                 
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE WINDING DOWN FOR SEVERAL HOURS LATE                 
THIS MORNING. THEN CONVECTION WINDS UP AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON               
INTO THE EVENING...WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE                 
EASTERN HALF. THEN THE SYSTEM EVOLVES INTO A POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN               
EVENT IN THE CENTRAL/EAST THIS EVENING.                                         
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE CAUSING THE AFORMENTIONED WEATHER WILL                 
BE THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH WILL BECOME                        
NEGATIVELY TILTED OVERHEAD TODAY AS A SERIES OF IMPRESSIVE WAVES                
WITH GOOD JET DYNAMICS SLIDE THROUGH IT. CONVECTION IN THE                      
WESTERN AREAS SHOULD IMPROVE EARLIEST LATER ON TODAY. FURTHER EAST              
HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH                
MUCH OF TONIGHT WITH REDUCTIONS TO MVFR AND IFR VISIBILITY AND                  
CEILING EXPECTED.                                                               
THE FRONT SHOULD FINALLY BE OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING               
IN VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER WE WILL STILL BE UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL               
TROUGH WHICH MAY CAUSE A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS TO                      
DEVELOP...WHICH MAY BRIEFLY LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO                  
MVFR. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SUNDAY... BUT YET ANOTHER              
FRONT MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY.                    
&&                                                                              
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...LACORTE/LAMBERT                                                      
NEAR TERM...LACORTE/LAMBERT                                                     
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT                                                    
LONG TERM...MARTIN                                                              
AVIATION...GARTNER/RXR                                                          
</pre> pa                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                       
307 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SAG                    
SOUTHWARD INTO PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT...THEN STALL OUT ACROSS THE                 
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL                 
BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A POSSIBLE                 
COLD FRONT BY NEXT WEEKEND.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...                                         
IMPRESSIVE BOW ECHO NOW EXITING SRN SOMERSET/BEDFORD CNTYS ATTM.                
PIT BASE V SIGNATURES WERE IN EXCESS OF 50KTS AT 3-6KFT AGL. RUC                
ANAL ALONG WITH IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWS THE MCV HAS NOW MOVED INTO                 
WCENT PA...WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA EVIDENT ON RADAR FM THE MID SUSQ VLY              
NWWD BACK INTO THE NW MTNS. BROADBRUSHED SCHC/CHC POPS AFT 06Z                  
WITH SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP TWD DAWN.                                       
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...                       
THE SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF EARLY IN THE WEST. THE HIGH AMBIENT                
MOISTURE AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD LEAD TO SOME FOG AND PERHAPS               
STRATUS AGAIN IN THE MORNING. HAVE MADE CLOUD COVER RATHER                      
DARK/DISMAL IN THE WEST LATE TONIGHT. ANY SHOWERS THAT LAST AFTER               
MIDNIGHT SHOULD BE OVER THE EAST AND EXITING STAGE RIGHT. SOME FOG              
POSSIBLE THERE...TOO...BUT MOST LIKELY IN THE WEST/CENTRAL. MINS                
WILL BE MILD/MUGGY AGAIN.                                                       
LOOK FOR A SIMILAR DAY TO THE PAST WEEK OR SO WITH HOT TEMPS IN THE             
SE AND COOLER/NEARER-NORMAL TEMPS IN THE NW. FOCUSING MECHANISMS FOR            
AFTN CONVECTION STILL IN DOUBT AT THIS POINT...BUT THOSE DEAD MCS/S             
AND THEIR ASSOCIATED VERTICAL MOTION ARE THE BIG SUSPECTS AT THIS               
TIME. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SCT/CHC RANGE FOR NOW...AND MAKE IT                 
MOSTLY IN THE AFTN.                                                             
LATEST SREF DATA SUGGEST HIGHEST CHC OF RAIN TUES NIGHT WILL BE IN              
THE WEST - ESP THE SW...AS MODELS WANT TO DROP AN MCS RIGHT THRU                
SWRN PA OVERNIGHT. FELT A GOOD MOVE WAS TO BUMP POPS INTO LIKELY                
CATEGORY FOR THE SW...AND KEEP CHCS FOR THE REST AT THIS RANGE.                 
TIMING AND UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT...OR LACK THEREOF...WILL TELL THIS              
TALE. KEPT MINS VERY MILD/MUGGY AGAIN. IT IS...AFTER ALL...THE                  
HEIGHT OF SUMMER - WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPS /CLIMATOLOGICALLY/ UPON               
US FOR ALL OF THE NEXT WEEK.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...                                  
YESTERDAY I HELD ONTO THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO                    
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND EVEN PUT A CHC INTO THE SE FOR WED AM.                      
YESTERDAY THE GFS SHOWED THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHARPENING                      
UP FOR MID WEEK...BUT I DID NOT WANT TO MAKE THE WHOLE WEEK WET.                
WITH THIS TREND STILL TODAY...LEFT MEINTON OF SHOWERS AND STORMS                
IN FOR WED...THAT MID SHIFT ADDED...AND ADDED CHC FOR WED NIGHT.                
GFS SLIGHTLY LESS GLOOMY AND FASTER THAN NAM WITH SYSTEM WED...BUT              
COULD STILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER...EVEN HEAVY RAIN                  
EVENT...WITH SUCH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL FEATURE FOR LATE JULY. ONLY              
HAVE ISSUED ONE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THIS SEASON...AND THAT WAS THE              
OTHER EVENING WHEN I WAS WORKING. THIS HAS BEEN A WET SUMMER SO                 
FAR...JUST HAVE NOT HAD THE TYPICAL PATTERN FOR HEAVY RAIN SO                   
FAR THIS SEASON.                                                                
IF ONE IS LOOKING FOR DRY WEATHER...IT LOOKS LIKE THU                           
AND PERHAPS FRIDAY WILL BE THE DAYS. THE OLD FRONT                              
STALLS JUST OFFSHORE AT BEST...AND STARTS TO WORK BACK                          
TO THE NW BY LATE IN THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...A NEW                         
COLD FRONT WORKS EASTWARD ON SAT.                                               
WENT WITH DRY WEATHER AGAIN FOR THE PERIOD SUNDAY INTO                          
TUE.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
IR IMAGERGY INDICATES BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SLIDING IN BEHIND EVENING            
CONVECTION. FOG/LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING EVERWHERE BY 08Z AND                      
PERSISTING THRU SUNRISE.                                                        
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST INTO WEDNESDAY AS MID-LVL                
TROUGH DIGS DEEP INTO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. EACH OF THE NEXT                   
SEVERAL DAYS WILL PRESENT LOW CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA...ALTHOUGH IT DOES              
NOT APPEAR THESE WILL BE LONG LIVED CONVECTIVE PIECES. BY SATURDAY              
YET ANOTHER TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE IN BRINGING WITH IT MORE SHOWERS               
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND.                                              
&&                                                                              
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/FITZGERALD                                                   
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL                                                           
SHORT TERM...DANGELO                                                            
LONG TERM...MARTIN                                                              
AVIATION...BEACHLER/RXR                                                         
</pre> pa                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
237 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD AND ACROSS THE                   
FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STALL                  
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...WHILE WEAK               
HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. A REINFORCING COLD              
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND MOVE OVER THE AREA EARLY             
NEXT WEEK.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                               
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE FOCUS IS ON               
WHERE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP. RUC AND NAM ARE TARGETING THE                    
MOUNTAINS...NE GA AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE WITH BEST CHANCES FOR                 
CONVECTION. CURRENT LAPS CAPE AND REGIONAL RADARS SUPPORTS THIS                 
IDEA. ALSO...CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING WITHIN THE SPC WATCH               
OVER TN WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE NC MOUNTAINS..SO WILL HAVE SOLID/HIGH            
CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE AREAS...TRENDING               
LOWER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE. WITH CAPES IN THE 1000-2000J RANGE           
AND DCAPES AROUND 1000J SEVERE DOWNBURSTS ARE AGAIN A POSSIBILITY.              
50-55DBZ CORES AROUND 28K FT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SVR WIND AND              
AROUND 33K FR FOR SVR HAIL. STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT AND             
THEN REMAIN QUIET OVERNIGHT. USED A MOS BLEND FOR MIN TEMPS. WILL               
ALSO GO AHEAD AN CANCEL THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF                  
THIS AFTERNOON AS HEAT INDEX COMING UP SHY OF THE NEEDED 105                    
CRITERIA.                                                                       
ON THU...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER FAIRLY                
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER DYNAMICS NOT BAD EITHER             
AS EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ALLOWING FOR SOME DECENT LAPSE               
RATES AND PVA. GFS/NAM DIFFER ON TIMING OF FRONT WITH THE NAM THE               
FASTER OF THE MODELS. WILL USE THE SREF WHICH IS CLOSE TO A                     
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS/NAM. HENCE...WILL BRING LIKELY POPS INTO             
THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE MORNING AND ELSEWHERE DURING THE AFTERNOON.            
MAX TEMPS WILL BE ON THE DECLINE DUE TO CLOUDS/STORMS....BUT OUTSIDE            
OF THE MOUNTAINS TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO            
MID 90S.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...                           
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...OVERNIGHT PERIOD WEDNESDAY WILL BEGIN WITH               
ONGOING CONVECTION AT SOUTHERN END OF RATHER STRONG SHORT WAVE                  
TROUGH MOVING FROM GREAT LAKES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. SOME TIMING AND              
DETAIL DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG MODELS... BUT GFS... NAM... AND SREF             
INDICATE UNSTABLE AIR... DIVERGENCE ALOFT... AND CONVERGENT FLOW IN             
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE PROGRESSING EASTWARD BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z                 
THURSDAY. 500 MB TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN                  
CANADA BY THURSDAY MORNING... BUT APPEARS THAT WEAKNESS IN HEIGHT               
FIELD AT SOUTHERN END OF TROUGH WILL NOT PROGRESS RAPIDLY EASTWARD.             
THUS... SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OFF COAST OF NORTHEASTERN            
STATES BUT EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO CAROLINAS JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA.               
BOUNDARY SUFFICIENTLY CLOSE AND MOISTURE DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT                 
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING DAY THURSDAY... PRIMARILY ACROSS                      
SOUTHEAST. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS DEPICTION OF MOISTURE AND                 
LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON FRIDAY WHICH INDICATES ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR                    
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS              
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT DUE PRIMARILY TO APPROACH OF NEXT TROUGH AND               
FRONT FROM THE WEST. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN 80S AND LOWER            
90S... NOT QUITE AS HOT AS EARLIER IN WEEK.                                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                        
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GOING            
FORECAST FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE. I PRIMARILY USED THE 00Z/22 ECMWF FOR            
THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST WHICH STILL FEATURES EAST COAST                     
TROUGHING THROUGH THE PERIOD. DID NUDGE MAX TEMPS UP A BIT ON SAT               
AND SUN AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF THE STRONG RIDGE              
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING IN SOME HIGHER HEIGHTS...BEFORE             
RETROGRADING BACK TOWARDS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS A REINFORCING SHOT            
OF ENERGY AMPLIFIES THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE            
SURFACE...THE FA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MOIST AND                 
UNSTABLE LLVL AIR MASS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT SAGS                  
SOUTHWARD MON AND TUES. OVERALL...HPC AND MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES              
TO SUPPORT AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH A SOLID CHC OF CONVECTION THROUGH              
TUES.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                       
VFR CONDITIONS AT 18Z WILL HOLD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND MOST OF THE           
NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE IF A THUNDERSTORM MOVED OVER AN AIR               
FIELD LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT              
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD LATE THIS AFTERNOON              
OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS. THESE STORMS THEN MAY PROPOGATE INTO THE                 
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE              
MENTION OF CB IN THE TAFS FROM ABOUT 21Z-01Z EXCEPT 20Z-01Z AT KAVL.            
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 02Z. MOST GUIDANCE                  
INDICATES SOME MINOR RESTRICTION TO VSBY AROUND SUNRISE...SO HAVE               
INCLUDED HZ AND VSBYS 5-6SM.                                                    
A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO              
PRODUCE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE                  
AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED A CB GROUP AFTER 16Z AT ALL SITES...THOUGH             
THIS MAY BE A LITTLE EARLY FOR SITES LIKE KAND.                                 
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WED EVENING WILL MOVE E AND S OF THE REGION             
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL                  
BRIEFLY BUILD S PROVIDING GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY INTO                
FRIDAY. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE             
EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY               
MAY OCCUR IN THE THUNDERSTORM...WITH MVFR VISIBILITY AT NIGHT IN FOG            
WHERE RAIN FALLS.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...BSH                                                                  
NEAR TERM...LG                                                                  
SHORT TERM...LGL                                                                
LONG TERM...BSH                                                                 
AVIATION...LG                                                                   
</pre> sc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1057 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND SLOWLY             
CROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STALL                
OVER CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE              
WEEK...WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. A             
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND MOVE                
OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
TEMPS NOT RISING QUITE AS FAST TODAY AS OPPOSED TO YESTERDAY OUTSIDE            
OF THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO SOME DEBRIS CI AND PROBABLY SOME EVAPORATIVE            
EFFECTS WHERE THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRED YESTERDAY EVENING. HAVE TWEAKED            
THE MAX TEMP GRID DOWNWARD A DEGREE OR TWO AS A RESULT. SFC                     
DEWPOINTS SHOULD ACTUALLY INCREASE SOME AS DAY PROGRESSES DUE TO                
EVAPORATION AND ADVECTION AS WINDS SWING TO THE S THIS AFTERNOON.               
THEREFORE...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL STILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF                  
105...SO SEE NO REASON TO CANCEL THE ADVISORY OUTSIDE OF THE                    
MOUNTAINS.                                                                      
IN REGARD TO CONVECTIVE EXPECTATIONS...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CERTAINLY            
BE POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE WITH CAPES INCREASING INTO THE 1000-2000J               
RANGE. RUC AND 12Z NAM TARGETING MOUNTAINS FOR MOST WIDESPREAD                  
COVERAGE BEGINNING AFTER 18Z AS WEAK SHORT WAVE ARRIVES WITH SOME OF            
THIS ACTIVITY PROBABLY MOVING INTO THE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT AREAS THIS            
EVENING. ESSENTIALLY JUST MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING IN              
THE POP FIELD.                                                                  
SOME SEVERE STORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.              
DCAPE`S AGAIN LOOK TO BE AROUND 1000J...SO SVR DOWNBURSTS ARE A                 
THREAT AGAIN. INITIAL EVALUATION LOOKS LIKE 50-55DBZ CORES AROUND               
28K FT FOR SVR DOWNBURSTS AND AROUND 33K FT FOR SVR HAIL.                       
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH CONVECTION                
CHANCES DECREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT.                                           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...                               
AS OF 230 AM TUESDAY...GFS CONTINUES HAVING CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK                 
ISSUES SO LEANED A BIT MORE TOWARD A NAM/ECMWF BLEND. CLOSED H5 LOW             
OVER E GREAT LAKES AND ASSOC E US TROF CONTINUE TO DEEPEN WED. AT               
THE SAME TIME...A WEAK COLD FRONT SINKS S OVER THE FORECAST AREA.               
ADD DEEP MOISTURE WITH CAPES AROUND 2000J/KG IN THE AFTN AND ALL THE            
INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR LIKELY SHWRS/TSTMS. EVEN THO H5 HEIGHTS               
DECREASE AND MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED...1000-850MB THICKNESS STAYS              
FAIRLY HIGH. SO ALTHO GUIDANCE IS COOLER THAN TUE...A MODEL BLEND               
YIELDS TEMPS STILL ABOVE AVG... RANGING FROM L-M90S TO U80S                     
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...WITH U70S TO M80S MTNS.                                
NAM/GFS FASTER THAN ECMWF PUSHING FRONT S WED NIGHT-THU AND AM                  
LEANING TOWARD SLOWER ECMWF. UPPER SUPPORT WANES AS H5 TROF BEGINS              
TO PULL AWAY TO THE NE THU AND SFC FRONT CONTINUES SLOWLY S...SO                
HAVE POPS TAPERING OFF FROM THE NW DURING THE DAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE.             
EXPECT HIGHS THU AROUND 90 S CWA...U80S N...WITH U70S-M80S MTNS.                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                           
AS OF 230 AM TUESDAY...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT PUSHING WEAK SFC                
BOUNDARY S AND STALLING IT OUT JUST S OF CWA FRI...AS WEAK HIGH                 
PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE N. WITH NO SIG AIRMASS CHANGE               
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHWRS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND WITH                 
TEMPS WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF AVG. E COAST TROF DEEPENS AGAIN LATE               
THIS WEEKEND WHILE A REINFORCING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW.             
WITH AN H5 SHORTWAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE               
CWA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...A CHANCE OF RAIN CONTINUES.                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
WINDS HAVE STAYED UP OVERNIGHT...KEEPING THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MIXED             
AND PREVENTING FOG FORMATION. HIGH CEILINGS FROM THE ANVILS OF                  
PREVIOUS THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST AT THE SC TAF SITES. BY MID MORNING              
WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 KTS...WHILE CUMULUS FORMS WITH                 
DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS BACK FURTHER TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST AT                   
MIDDAY...AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN ERNEST. COVERAGE WILL            
ONLY BE SUFFICIENT TO BE CARRIED IN THE VICINITY OF KAVL...HOWEVER              
CUMULONIMBUS WILL BE CARRIED AT EACH TAF SITE. BY EARLY EVENING                 
CONVECTION WILL HAVE DIMINISHED...WHILE WINDS BECOME GENERALLY LIGHT            
AND VARIABLE. ANVIL DEBRIS FORM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE CEILING               
OVERNIGHT...AS THE MODEL TIME HEIGHTS HAVE BACKED OFF ON LOW CLOUD              
COVER. MODEL GUIDANCE ONLY CARRIES MVFR FOG AT KAVL...AND ONLY FOR A            
COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND DAWN ON WEDNESDAY.                                       
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON WED AS A COLD            
FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND THE                        
FRONT...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON THU             
AND CONTINUING ON FRI. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES ON SATURDAY...AND               
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE COULD PRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS             
AND VISIBILITY IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDER...WITH MVFR                     
VISIBILITY AT NIGHT IN FOG WHERE RAIN FALLS.                                    
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GAZ026-028-029.            
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ070-071-082.            
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ004>014-019.            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...RB                                                                   
NEAR TERM...LG                                                                  
SHORT TERM...RB                                                                 
LONG TERM...RB                                                                  
AVIATION...LG                                                                   
</pre> sc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
1130 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...REST OF TODAY                                                         
AREA OF ISO/SCT SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL               
SOUTH DAKOTA LATE THIS MORNING AND WILL APPROACH THE JAMES RIVER                
VALLEY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RATHER COMPLEX CONVECTIVE                     
SITUATION TODAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER KEEPING INSTABILITY AT               
BAY TODAY ACROSS THE EAST...ALTHOUGH PRESENCE OF LLJ TODAY SHOULD               
PROMOTE AN INCREASE IN ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS LATER THIS                       
AFTERNOON. FARTHER WEST...SFC BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN SD                
WITH IMPULSE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH WYOMING. CLEARING LINE                    
APPROACHING WESTERN MOST COUNTIES AND STILL EXPECT SOME                         
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ACROSS THIS AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS                  
INSTABILITY INCREASES AND WYOMING IMPULSE NEARS THE AREA. ALSO                  
INCREASED WINDS TODAY INTO THE BREEZY CATEGORY. DID SOME TWEAKS TO              
ALL OTHER WX ELEMENTS TO BETTER MATCH OBS AND RADAR TRENDS.                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY                                              
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH PCPN CHANCES                   
THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                                             
CURRENTLY ONGOING MCS LOCATED ACROSS ERN MT/WRN ND...WITH MORE                  
ACCAS TYPE TSRA DEVELOPING IN LLJ REGION OF WRN SD...WITH IR TOPS               
INDICATING SOME COOLING TAKING PLACE ACROSS SWRN SD. RUC HAS THIS               
PCPN HANDLED FAIRLY WELL...WITH PCPN ADVECTION MOVING EAST/JUST                 
NORTH OF EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED               
SOME LIKELY POPS FOR THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE NW                
CWA TO HANDLE CONVECTION THAT IS CURRENTLY ON GOING/EXPECTED TO                 
DEVELOP.                                                                        
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING FOR               
CONVECTIVE CHANCES. MODELS AGREE ON 7H TROF/WAVE COMBO TO IMPACT                
CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VERY SLOW MOVT EXPECTED WITH 7H                 
TROF. BY 00Z THURSDAY...BOTH GFS/NAM SHOW SHOW QUITE A BIT OF 85H-              
7H FRONTOGENESIS TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE MO RIVER REGION...ALONG                
WITH SPEC HUMIDITIES AOA 10G/KG. 7H TEMPS MAY BE JUST HIGH ENOUGH               
TO KEEP ATMOS CAPPED THROUGH 21/22Z BEFORE ALLOWING RAPID                       
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE MAIN UNCERTAINITY IN THIS IS THE SKY                
COVER. CURRENT MCS SHIELD OVERSPREADING CWA...AND THIS MAY BE                   
ENOUGH TO HELP INHIBIT SOME DEVELOPMENT. THINK THAT THE WRN PART                
OF THE CWA WILL CLEAR OUT ENOUGH LATER THIS AFTN FOR RAPID                      
DESTABILIZATION TO TAKE PLACE. ALSO...NOTICED THAT LOW LEVEL                    
TRAJECTORIES TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF EXPECTED SFC                          
TROF...WHICH SHOULD ALSO ALLOW MORE LOLEVEL MOISTURE TO STREAM                  
NORTHWARD. NOTICED THAT DWPTS ACROSS SC NEB AT 08Z WERE IN THE                  
LOWER 70S. GFS HAS PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES BY 00Z TONIGHT.                   
STEERING FLOW LOOKS TO BE SUFFICENT TO PREVENT A LARGE RESIDENCE                
TIME...SO NO PLANS ON ANY HEAVY RAIN HEADLINES ATTM...BUT LOCALLY               
HEAVY RAIN IS GOING TO BE POSSIBLE...SO WILL COVER IN THE HWO.                  
WITH WRN PART OF THE CWA ALSO EXPECTED TO CLEAR...WILL COVER PSBL               
SEVERE IN THE HWO.                                                              
7H TROF IS SLOW TO MOVE EAST...SO MECHANISM WILL RESET A BIT FOR                
THURSDAY...ALTHO HIGHER AXIS OF PWATS DO SHIFT A BIT MORE SOUTH                 
AND EAST. CONCERN IS THAT BOTH NAM/GFS HIGHLIGHT SFC LOW MOVING                 
SLOWLY THROUGH DURING THE DAY. OVERNIGHT CONVECTION LEAVES ERN CWA              
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN               
POST FROPA INSTABILITY AXIS WITH NEXT 7H WAVE IMPACTING SLOW                    
MOVING FEATURE. HAVE ADDED IN SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THURSDAY                 
AFTN...AND THESE WILL NEED TO BE REVISITED DURING LATER SHIFTS TO               
SEE IF THURSDAY AFTN INSTABILITY DOES INDEED DEVELOP.                           
TEMP WISE...HAVE STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO INHERITED GRIDS AS TEMPS                 
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDANT UPON THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING THAT TAKES                 
PLACE COUPLED WITH HOW MUCH MOISTURE DOES ADVECT NORTHWARD.                     
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY                                       
THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER STILL RESIDE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF               
OF FORECAST ZONES...SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY AND                    
MONDAY NIGHT...PER THE LATEST 12Z/00Z GFS/EC OPERATIONAL                        
SOLUTIONS. BOTH OF THESE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ALOFT                     
THROUGH APPX 96 HOURS...BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIVERGE ON                          
TIMING/AMPLITUDE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF/RIDGE AXES OVER THE LOWER              
48. BOTH MODELS HINT AT SHORTWAVE TROFPAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN              
SOMEWHERE IN THAT MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME. NO NOTABLE                     
CHANGES MADE TO FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON PORTION OF                
THE EXTENDED WITH THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE.                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
RATHER COMPLEX AVIATION FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH                     
CONVECTION SCATTERED ACROSS THE CWA. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH                 
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WITH AN ISOLD CB...BUT MORE                
GENERALLY 8-10KFT BASED SHRA ACTIVITY. ONE CAVEAT IS THAT FROM KMBG             
TO KBIS THERE IS AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS...BUT EXPECT THIS WILL LIFT               
OUT AS CLEARING LINE MOVES EAST DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. CB               
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE MID TO                
LATE AFTERNOON...WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS                     
EVENING MOVING IN A LINE FROM KPIR/KMBG...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE A                 
DECREASE IN ACTIVITY AS THIS LINE MOVES TOWARD THE ATY/KABR                     
TERMINALS LATE THIS EVENING. SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE INTO A HEAVY RAIN               
PRODUCER WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VISBY POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES                    
THROUGH KABR/KATY AND POINTS EAST. AS ALWAYS DURING THE SUMMER                  
CONVECTIVE SEASON...AREAS THAT SEE HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY COULD                   
EXPERIENCE FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. WE WILL ALSO SEE A SECOND                 
FRONTAL FEATURE MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...AND WITH PLENTY OF              
MOISTURE AROUND...MORE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR MUCH OF                     
THE AFTERNOON.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...TMT                                                                    
SHORT TERM...HINTZ                                                              
LONG TERM...DORN                                                                
AVIATION...CONNELLY                                                             
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN                                                            
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
410 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY                                              
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH PCPN CHANCES                   
THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                                             
CURRENTLY ONGOING MCS LOCATED ACROSS ERN MT/WRN ND...WITH MORE                  
ACCAS TYPE TSRA DEVELOPING IN LLJ REGION OF WRN SD...WITH IR TOPS               
INDICATING SOME COOLING TAKING PLACE ACROSS SWRN SD. RUC HAS THIS               
PCPN HANDLED FAIRLY WELL...WITH PCPN ADVECTION MOVING EAST/JUST                 
NORTH OF EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED               
SOME LIKELY POPS FOR THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE NW                
CWA TO HANDLE CONVECTION THAT IS CURRENTLY ON GOING/EXPECTED TO                 
DEVELOP.                                                                        
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING FOR               
CONVECTIVE CHANCES. MODELS AGREE ON 7H TROF/WAVE COMBO TO IMPACT                
CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VERY SLOW MOVT EXPECTED WITH 7H                 
TROF. BY 00Z THURSDAY...BOTH GFS/NAM SHOW SHOW QUITE A BIT OF 85H-              
7H FRONTOGENESIS TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE MO RIVER REGION...ALONG                
WITH SPEC HUMIDITIES AOA 10G/KG. 7H TEMPS MAY BE JUST HIGH ENOUGH               
TO KEEP ATMOS CAPPED THROUGH 21/22Z BEFORE ALLOWING RAPID                       
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE MAIN UNCERTAINITY IN THIS IS THE SKY                
COVER. CURRENT MCS SHIELD OVERSPREADING CWA...AND THIS MAY BE                   
ENOUGH TO HELP INHIBIT SOME DEVELOPMENT. THINK THAT THE WRN PART                
OF THE CWA WILL CLEAR OUT ENOUGH LATER THIS AFTN FOR RAPID                      
DESTABILIZATION TO TAKE PLACE. ALSO...NOTICED THAT LOW LEVEL                    
TRAJECTORIES TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF EXPECTED SFC                          
TROF...WHICH SHOULD ALSO ALLOW MORE LOLEVEL MOISTURE TO STREAM                  
NORTHWARD. NOTICED THAT DWPTS ACROSS SC NEB AT 08Z WERE IN THE                  
LOWER 70S. GFS HAS PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES BY 00Z TONIGHT.                   
STEERING FLOW LOOKS TO BE SUFFICIENT TO PREVENT A LARGE RESIDENCE               
TIME...SO NO PLANS ON ANY HEAVY RAIN HEADLINES ATTM...BUT LOCALLY               
HEAVY RAIN IS GOING TO BE POSSIBLE...SO WILL COVER IN THE HWO.                  
WITH WRN PART OF THE CWA ALSO EXPECTED TO CLEAR...WILL COVER PSBL               
SEVERE IN THE HWO.                                                              
7H TROF IS SLOW TO MOVE EAST...SO MECHANISM WILL RESET A BIT FOR                
THURSDAY...ALTHO HIGHER AXIS OF PWATS DO SHIFT A BIT MORE SOUTH                 
AND EAST. CONCERN IS THAT BOTH NAM/GFS HIGHLIGHT SFC LOW MOVING                 
SLOWLY THROUGH DURING THE DAY. OVERNIGHT CONVECTION LEAVES ERN CWA              
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN               
POST FROPA INSTABILITY AXIS WITH NEXT 7H WAVE IMPACTING SLOW                    
MOVING FEATURE. HAVE ADDED IN SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THURSDAY                 
AFTN...AND THESE WILL NEED TO BE REVISITED DURING LATER SHIFTS TO               
SEE IF THURSDAY AFTN INSTABILITY DOES INDEED DEVELOP.                           
TEMP WISE...HAVE STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO INHERITED GRIDS AS TEMPS                 
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDANT UPON THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING THAT TAKES                 
PLACE COUPLED WITH HOW MUCH MOISTURE DOES ADVECT NORTHWARD.                     
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY                                       
THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER STILL RESIDE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF               
OF FORECAST ZONES...SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY AND                    
MONDAY NIGHT...PER THE LATEST 12Z/00Z GFS/EC OPERATIONAL                        
SOLUTIONS. BOTH OF THESE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ALOFT                     
THROUGH APPX 96 HOURS...BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIVERGE ON                          
TIMING/AMPLITUDE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF/RIDGE AXES OVER THE LOWER              
48. BOTH MODELS HINT AT SHORTWAVE TROFPAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN              
SOMEWHERE IN THAT MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME. NO NOTABLE                     
CHANGES MADE TO FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON PORTION OF                
THE EXTENDED WITH THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE.                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
06Z TAFS FOR KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG                                        
VFR PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH UNRESTRICTED VISBYS PREVAIL              
THROUGH TODAY. CIGS WILL REMAIN MAINLY AT OR ABOVE 5000FT AGL                   
THROUGHOUT THE TAF VALID PERIOD. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE              
THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT RESULTING IN                 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING MOVING ACROSS                  
THE KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS. BETWEEN 15Z AND 21Z TODAY...THE MAIN               
THREAT FOR THUNDER IS SHIFTING EAST TO IMPACT THE KABR AND KATY                 
TERMINALS. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE RATHER EFFICIENT AT                 
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...SO ANTICIPATE IFR CIG/VISBY REDUCTIONS                   
UNDERNEATH THESE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THEN...FROM 00Z TO 06Z                  
TONIGHT...THE FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT WILL               
BACK-PEDDLE TO THE WEST...AGAIN WITH THE KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS                
MAINTAINING THE GREATEST POTENTIAL TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS RUMBLE                  
THROUGH TERMINAL AIRSPACE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THESE EVENING               
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING              
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS. WILL WHITTLE DOWN TSRA MENTION IN THE TAFS             
AS THUNDERSTORM EVENT TIMES GROW CLOSER...STARTING OUT THIS                     
MORNING MAINLY WITH CB MENTION AND/OR VCTS AS WARRANTED...UPDATING              
WITH TSRA MENTION IN THE NEARER TERM AS APPROPRIATE. SURFACE WINDS              
SHOULD MAINTAIN A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AND BREEZY FOR                  
MUCH OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...HINTZ                                                              
LONG TERM...DORN                                                                
AVIATION...DORN                                                                 
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN                                                            
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX                                   
1035 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
CONVECTION HAVING A HARD TIME HOLDING TOGETHER AND THE TRAJECTORY               
OF A FEEDER BAND OVER THE GULF IS HEADING MORE TOWARD THE CRP CWA.              
STILL FEEL SHRA/TSRA WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT BUT TORNADO THREAT                
IS SMALL. HAVE COORDINATED WITH SPC AND CANCELED THE TORNADO                    
WATCH. OTHER THAN THE HEADLINES...NO CHANGES. 43                                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 917 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND DOLLY CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO SOUTHEAST               
TEXAS. PW`S ARE AROUND 2.3 INCHES ALONG THE UPPER COAST. THERE                  
SHOULD BE A GAP IN PRECIP THROUGH ABOUT 2 AM BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE               
IN MOISTURE APPROACHES THE COAST. INITIAL THOUGHTS WERE THAT THE                
PRECIP WOULD CONTRACT TOWARD THE CENTER OF DOLLY BUT RADAR RETURNS              
SUGGEST OTHERWISE. WILL LEAN TOWARD A 00Z NAM 12/RUC 40 SOLUTION                
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. TORNADO THREAT IS MINIMAL BUT                  
PREFER TO LET THE WATCH GO TO AT LEAST 04Z. LOWERED POPS OVER THE               
NORTH SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT. TEMP FORECAST LOOKS OK. NEW NAM AND              
FWC GUIDANCE SUPPORT HIGH RAIN CHANCES AGAIN ON THURSDAY. 43                    
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 717 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008/                          
UPDATE...                                                                       
SPC HAS ISSUED A NEW TORNADO WATCH 741 TO REPLACE THE EXPIRED                   
WATCH. THE ONLY COUNTIES LEFT IN THE WATCH ARE JACKSON AND                      
MATAGORDA. THE FEEDER BAND ROLLING INTO MATAGORDA COUNTY DID                    
PRODUCE SEVERAL REPORTS OF A FUNNEL CLOUD. THINK THE THREAT WILL                
DIMINISH AFTER 04Z AS THE PRECIP SHIELD CONTRACTS AROUND THE                    
CENTER OF DOLLY. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. 43                              
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
ISSUING THE EARLY EVENING AVIATION DISCUSSION.                                  
AVIATION...                                                                     
RAIN BANDS CAUGHT UP IN THE OUTER CIRCULATION AROUND DOLLY WILL                 
AFFECT MOST OF THE TERMINAL SITES THIS EVENING...AT LEAST UNTIL                 
AROUND 03Z. EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH DURING THE LATE                     
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A CORE TROPICAL CYCLONE EVENT SETS UP                  
DOWN SOUTH. THAT BEING SAID...THE CONFIDENCE FACTOR IS NOT HIGH                 
ENOUGH TO TAKE OUT ALL MENTION OF RAIN. BECAUSE OF THE RAIN                     
TODAY...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.               
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE FROM THE               
BIG AIRPORTS SOUTH TO THE COAST.                                                
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING. THROUGH THE EARLY               
EVENING...STRONGER WINDS OF UP TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE PRESENT JUST                 
ABOVE THE SURFACE AND COULD BE MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN ANY                 
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO AFFECT A TERMINAL SITE.                        
40                                                                              
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH DOLLY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS                   
SOUTHEAST TEXAS ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CWFA THIS                       
AFTERNOON. RADAR RAINFALL TOTALS INDICATE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS                
JUST WEST OF BAY CITY AND NEAR PALACIOS ABOUT 2.4 INCHES. REST OF               
CWFA (MAINLY SOUTHERN HALF INDICATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/8 TO                  
NEAR AN INCH). RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE LOWER TONIGHT EXCEPT LIKELY               
FOR SW ZONES WHERE RAIN BANDS WILL BE MORE FREQUENT (COMING FROM                
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST). MODELS DO INDICATE A CONTINUED GOOD CHANGE             
OF RAIN TOMORROW WITH PW VALUES REMAINING HIGH. HOWEVER THE                     
NORTHEAST ZONES PROBABLY WILL HAVE LOWER POPS AND TO A LESSER                   
EXTENT THE REST OF THE NORTHERN ZONES DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE               
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE. UPPER HIGH WILL START TO RIDGE               
OVER OUR CWFA THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND SQUELCHING               
RAIN CHANCES WITH INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. WARMER                 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN STORE FOR US DURING THIS PERIOD. UPPER                  
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN BY TUESDAY NEXT WEEK AS AN                   
INVERTED UPPER TROUGH APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE EAST. GFS                    
INDICATE PW VALUES STARTING TO INCREASE MID TO LATTER PERIOD OF                 
NEXT WEEK. 37                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  89  75  94  74 /  20  50  20  20  10             
HOUSTON (IAH)              76  88  76  93  75 /  40  50  20  20  20             
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  86  79  90  81 /  60  50  20  20  20             
&&                                                                              
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING             
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT                
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM                 
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS                  
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH                
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.                                              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...43                                                                 
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX                                   
917 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND DOLLY CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO SOUTHEAST               
TEXAS. PW`S ARE AROUND 2.3 INCHES ALONG THE UPPER COAST. THERE                  
SHOULD BE A GAP IN PRECIP THROUGH ABOUT 2 AM BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE               
IN MOISTURE APPROACHES THE COAST. INITIAL THOUGHTS WERE THAT THE                
PRECIP WOULD CONTRACT TOWARD THE CENTER OF DOLLY BUT RADAR RETURNS              
SUGGEST OTHERWISE. WILL LEAN TOWARD A 00Z NAM 12/RUC 40 SOLUTION                
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. TORNADO THREAT IS MINIMAL BUT                  
PREFER TO LET THE WATCH GO TO AT LEAST 04Z. LOWERED POPS OVER THE               
NORTH SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT. TEMP FORECAST LOOKS OK. NEW NAM AND              
FWC GUIDANCE SUPPORT HIGH RAIN CHANCES AGAIN ON THURSDAY. 43                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 717 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
SPC HAS ISSUED A NEW TORNADO WATCH 741 TO REPLACE THE EXPIRED                   
WATCH. THE ONLY COUNTIES LEFT IN THE WATCH ARE JACKSON AND                      
MATAGORDA. THE FEEDER BAND ROLLING INTO MATAGORDA COUNTY DID                    
PRODUCE SEVERAL REPORTS OF A FUNNEL CLOUD. THINK THE THREAT WILL                
DIMINISH AFTER 04Z AS THE PRECIP SHIELD CONTRACTS AROUND THE                    
CENTER OF DOLLY. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. 43                              
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
ISSUING THE EARLY EVENING AVIATION DISCUSSION.                                  
AVIATION...                                                                     
RAIN BANDS CAUGHT UP IN THE OUTER CIRCULATION AROUND DOLLY WILL                 
AFFECT MOST OF THE TERMINAL SITES THIS EVENING...AT LEAST UNTIL                 
AROUND 03Z. EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH DURING THE LATE                     
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A CORE TROPICAL CYCLONE EVENT SETS UP                  
DOWN SOUTH. THAT BEING SAID...THE CONFIDENCE FACTOR IS NOT HIGH                 
ENOUGH TO TAKE OUT ALL MENTION OF RAIN. BECAUSE OF THE RAIN                     
TODAY...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.               
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE FROM THE               
BIG AIRPORTS SOUTH TO THE COAST.                                                
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING. THROUGH THE EARLY               
EVENING...STRONGER WINDS OF UP TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE PRESENT JUST                 
ABOVE THE SURFACE AND COULD BE MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN ANY                 
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO AFFECT A TERMINAL SITE.                        
40                                                                              
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH DOLLY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS                   
SOUTHEAST TEXAS ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CWFA THIS                       
AFTERNOON. RADAR RAINFALL TOTALS INDICATE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS                
JUST WEST OF BAY CITY AND NEAR PALACIOS ABOUT 2.4 INCHES. REST OF               
CWFA (MAINLY SOUTHERN HALF INDICATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/8 TO                  
NEAR AN INCH). RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE LOWER TONIGHT EXCEPT LIKELY               
FOR SW ZONES WHERE RAIN BANDS WILL BE MORE FREQUENT (COMING FROM                
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST). MODELS DO INDICATE A CONTINUED GOOD CHANGE             
OF RAIN TOMORROW WITH PW VALUES REMAINING HIGH. HOWEVER THE                     
NORTHEAST ZONES PROBABLY WILL HAVE LOWER POPS AND TO A LESSER                   
EXTENT THE REST OF THE NORTHERN ZONES DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE               
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE. UPPER HIGH WILL START TO RIDGE               
OVER OUR CWFA THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND SQUELCHING               
RAIN CHANCES WITH INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. WARMER                 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN STORE FOR US DURING THIS PERIOD. UPPER                  
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN BY TUESDAY NEXT WEEK AS AN                   
INVERTED UPPER TROUGH APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE EAST. GFS                    
INDICATE PW VALUES STARTING TO INCREASE MID TO LATTER PERIOD OF                 
NEXT WEEK. 37                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  89  75  94  74 /  40  50  20  20  10             
HOUSTON (IAH)              76  88  76  93  75 /  40  60  20  20  20             
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  86  79  90  81 /  60  60  20  20  20             
&&                                                                              
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING             
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT                
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM                 
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS                  
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH                
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.                                              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...43                                                                 
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
310 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY                                          
FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON PRECIPITATION                
CHANCES LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.                                   
SURFACE MAP THIS AFTERNOON HAD A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED                
OVER WI/UPPER MICHIGAN WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED               
FROM WESTERN SD THROUGH EASTERN CO. FAIRLY NARROW CORRIDOR OF LOW               
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WAS                    
MAINTAINING CLUSTERS OF SHRA/OCNL THUNDER ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THIS      
HAS BEEN ONGOING ALL DAY.  OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE            
MID AND UPPER 70 AND DEW POINTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE              
LOCAL FORECAST AREA FAIRLY ATYPICAL FOR LATTER JULY.                            
23.12Z GFS/NAM SHORT TERM MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NO               
GLARING DIFFERENCES NOTED.                                                      
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST INTO THE GREAT                
LAKES REGION TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUDGES              
INTO WESTERN MN THROUGH EASTERN NEB BY 12Z. EASTERN PERIPHERY OF                
925-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL EDGE INTO                 
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...THICKENING               
CLOUD COVER AND BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO AREAS ALONG               
AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MUCAPE NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE               
...SO CARRIED SHRA/ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION FOR AREAS WEST OF THE               
MISSISSIPPI AFTER MIDNIGHT.                                                     
THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY ACROSS WESTERN MN/EASTERN              
NEB THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE MAIN SLUG OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE                   
TRANSPORT STAYING ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 ACROSS IA THROUGH THE DAY.            
THIS WILL FUEL A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN                        
IA/NORTHWEST IL BY TOMORROW MORNING WITH NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS             
STRONGER TRANSPORT SIGNAL EDGING INTO SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA                 
COUNTIES. BASED ON THIS SIGNAL...CARRIED LIKELY SHRA/T CHANCES                  
ACROSS THAT AREA IN THE 12-18Z TIME FRAME. MODELS STILL SHOWING A               
SECONDARY LIGHTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT SIGNAL FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE            
AREA FOR A SMALLER CHANCE OF SHRA/T. AGAIN...MUCAPE IS NOT THAT                 
IMPRESSIVE...SO WOULD EXPECT MAINLY SHRA WITH PERHAPS A RUMPLE OR TWO           
OF THUNDER. WITH CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE AREA               
THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BE WELL BELOW NORMAL TOPPING OFF IN             
THE MID 70S TO UPPER 70S.                                                       
WEAK LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE             
SHRA/ISOLD T CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.                            
ON FRIDAY...A STRONGER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING ACROSS THE             
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL TRANSITION THE SURFACE TROUGH INTO A COLD FRONT            
AND PUSH IT INTO THE AREA BY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOT                  
PARTICULARLY STRONG AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...BUT BUILDING CAPE INTO THE             
1000-2000J/KG RANGE WITH SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD              
BE AMPLE FOR SCATTERED SHRA/TS ACTIVITY. BUMPED POPS INTO TE 30-40              
PERCENT RANGE BASED ON THIS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY. THE              
FRONT WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING            
HOURS FRIDAY  WITH LINGERING SHRA/TS CHANCES...THEN EXIT THE AREA               
AROUND MIDNIGHT.                                                                
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA            
ON SATURDAY FOR PLEASANT CONDITIONS.                                            
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY                                   
23.00Z/06Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLING                
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY TIME FRAME. MODELS HAVE            
A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIPPLING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY           
WITH PERHAPS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF RESULTANT SHRA/TS ACTIVITY                    
TOUCHING FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. GFS ENSEMBLE OF            
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES KEEP EVERYTHING SOUTH...SO HAVE OPTED TO            
GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. WILL BUMP UP CLOUD COVER SOMEWHAT AS            
ALMOST CERTAIN THAT SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL AT LEAST                 
AFFECT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THEN FOR MONDAY THROUGH                   
WEDNESDAY...THE GEM/DGEX/GFS ENSEMBLES AMPLIFY RIDGING ACROSS THE               
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST REGION. THE DETERMINISTIC                     
GFS/ECMWF WANT TO BLOW A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE RIDGE IN THE                    
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...BUT THIS SEEMS LIKE AN OUTLIER                   
SOLUTION GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE. WILL GO WITH A DRY                    
FORECAST FOR NOW. GFS AND ECMWF KEEP 850MB TEMPERATURES IN CHECK                
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE GFS STARTING OUT IN THE 10-13C RANGE ON             
SUNDAY...WARMING TO AROUND 16-17C BY WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF IS SLIGHT             
COOLER. BOTTOM LINE...IT WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES JUST A FEW               
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING                                    
12Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF DEVELOPING A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER            
WESTERN MINNESOTA THIS EVENING AND BRINGING THIS EAST/SOUTHEAST                 
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. BY LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY                         
MORNING...THE LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT REALLY STARTS TO             
TAKE A TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AND BECOMES MORE FOCUSED OVER SOUTHEAST            
IOWA. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE COMPLEX SHOULD BE ON A DIMINISHING            
TREND AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA. THE CONCERN BECOMES WHETHER THIS               
WILL HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO BRING ANY RAIN TO THE TAF SITES.              
PREVIOUS TAFS INTRODUCED VCSH FOR KRST AND HAVE CONTINUED THIS TREND            
BUT PUSHED THE TIMING BACK A LITTLE FOR A SLOWER ARRIVAL. THE NAM               
HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FOR A COUPLE RUNS OF SHOWING THE RAIN REACHING              
KLSE AS WELL. THE 23.09Z SREFS DO BRING IN PROBABILITIES OF 30-40               
FOR KLSE AND BOTH THE 23.00Z ARW WRF AND 23.09Z RUC WRF SUGGEST THE             
RAIN WILL REACH KLSE SO HAVE INTRODUCED A VCSH THERE AS WELL. NO                
CAPE IS FORECAST TO BE PRESENT THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY SO NO MENTION OF            
THUNDER OR INCLUSION OF CB. CEILINGS EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE 5K FEET             
FOR THE MOST PART. THE 23.12Z NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST KRST MAY             
GO DOWN TO 3K FEET OR LOWER BY MID TO LATE MORNING. OBSERVATIONS                
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WITH THE RAIN THIS MORNING DID INDICATE MVFR                  
CEILINGS SO HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THIS POSSIBILITY.                               
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT/LONG TERM...DAS                                                           
AVIATION..........04                                                            
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
227 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY                                            
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT                
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.                                                            
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH              
OVER NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN                  
PLAINS AND HIGH PLAINS. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO                         
INDICATING WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT               
OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEP                        
LAPSE RATES PER 22.15Z RUC OVER THE REGION...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND               
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS                      
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
22.12Z GFS AND NAM INITIALIZE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND                           
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PER WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO              
REAL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES NOTED...THOUGH 22.12Z GFS SLIGHTLY                 
FARTHER NORTH WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH           
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT...AS FAR AS HOW             
FAR NORTH PRECIPITATION WILL BE THURSDAY ACROSS FORECAST AREA. BOTH             
MODELS AND 22.09Z SREF FOCUS MESO COMPLEX SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN                
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST             
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IS LOW...BASED ON EXACT PLACEMENT OF              
THE MESO COMPLEX SYSTEM.                                                        
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SURFACE RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO                    
CANADA BUILDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS FORECAST AREA 18Z WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED            
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH                      
OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY SUNSET...AS                  
LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND SUBSIDENCE UNDER SURFACE RIDGE                  
MOVES OVER THE REGION AFTER 03Z. HAVE INTRODUCED ISOLATED SHOWERS               
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 03Z WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST                    
FORECAST AREA.                                                                  
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS EAST OF FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO                 
THURSDAY AND NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS OUT OF THE UPPER LEVEL                
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND FLATTENS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.               
THIS WILL RESULT IN RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE INTO THE              
FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. BOTH THE 22.12Z GFS AND NAM IN                
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS            
AND UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AND FOCUS MOISTURE            
TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST            
AREA AFTER 12Z THURSDAY. BOTH MODELS DO INDICATE BEST INSTABILITY AND           
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO BE SOUTH AND WEST OF                  
FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL                
WITH THUNDERSTORMS. WITH BOTH MODELS INDICATING DECENT LIFT AND                 
CONVERGENCE WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH...HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION                
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA 12Z THURSDAY TO 00Z                   
FRIDAY.                                                                         
BOTH MODELS INDICATE SURFACE COLD FRONT TO TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER               
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO BEGIN                  
DIGGING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO                   
FRIDAY. BOTH THE MODELS INDICATING WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG              
SURFACE FRONT. HAVE KEPT SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS                     
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.                                       
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY                                       
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO              
SATURDAY...THEN TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE 22.00Z GFS             
AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER              
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH PERIOD. THE                 
BIGGEST DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THE GFS MUCH STRONGER                  
AND SLOWER MOVEMENT THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED           
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND            
SATURDAY. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER LIFT OVER           
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY.                       
ENSEMBLES INDICATE HIGH VARIABILITY IN THE STRENGTH OF THE                      
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND INDICATES THE AXIS OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION             
PROBABILISTIC WILL BE JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA FRIDAY               
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY                       
FORECAST ACROSS FORECAST AREA. THEN...BOTH MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER            
AGREEMENT IN BUILDING SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE UPPER                  
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. COLDER              
AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT SUNDAY                
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST REGION. BOTH THE                 
22.00Z GFS AND ECMWF INDICATING 850MB TEMPERATURES FROM PLUS 10                 
DEGREES CELSIUS TO PLUS 15 DEGREES CELSIUS ACROSS FORECAST AREA. GOOD           
SUBSIDENCE AND COOLER AIR MASS OVER FORECAST AREA...WILL CONTINUE               
WITH TREND OF UNSEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER INTO           
EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH                  
WEDNESDAY. ONLY ITEM WE ARE MONITORING IS THE VALLEY FOG POSSIBILITY            
FOR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEYS FOR WEDNESDAY             
MORNING. HAVE INTRODUCED AN MVFR TEMPO PERIOD AT KLSE FOR THIS                  
CHANCE. THE DRYING NORTHEAST WIND WILL WORK AGAINST THE FOG                     
FORMATION...BUT HIGHER SOIL MOISTURE AND PLANT EVAPOTRANSPIRATION               
WILL WORK TOWARD BETTER FOG CHANCES. OVERALL WIND FIELD IS ABOUT 5              
KTS THROUGH THE LOWEST 2KFT UNDER CLEAR SKIES. FOG MAY BE LOCALIZED             
TO THE MAIN CHANNEL OF THE MISS RIVER AND OFF OF THE KLSE FIELD                 
PROPER.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT/LONG TERM...DTJ                                                           
AVIATION..........DAB                                                           
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
403 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                      
FORECAST FOCUS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY...COOLER AND LESS                 
HUMID AIRMASS NEXT FEW DAYS.                                                    
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL                   
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH AN UPSTREAM                   
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A                    
VORTICITY MAXIMUM WITHIN THE TROUGH...CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST                   
MINNESOTA. AT THE SURFACE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED                  
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO CANADA...MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH. A LOW CLOUD               
DECK WITH EMBEDDED RAIN SHOWERS WAS MOVING SOUTHWEST FROM THE DOOR              
COUNTY AREA.                                                                    
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...                                         
PATCHY FOG SEEN OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LIGHT                 
WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WILL CARRY EARLY MORNING FOG WORDING              
UNTIL DAYTIME HEATING PICKS UP. MORNING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO WATCH                
FOR LOW STRATUS DECK AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS FROM NORTHEAST                      
WISCONSIN MOVING INTO THE AREA. THINK THAT DAYTIME HEATING LATER                
THIS MORNING COMBINED WITH SLOW MOVEMENT OF DECK SHOULD PREVENT                 
THIS AREA FROM MAKING IT THIS FAR SOUTH.                                        
AFOREMENTIONED VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST                  
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE SHOULD                   
COMBINE WITH MEAN LAYER CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 500 J/KG TO BRING                 
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL GO SHOWERS THIS                     
MORNING...AND HOLD OFF ON THE THUNDER UNTIL THE AFTERNOON.                      
CORE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN DROPS THROUGH THE REGION                    
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING DRY                  
CONDITIONS...A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS.                        
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION...WITH 1000/500MB THICKNESSES DROPPING INTO             
THE UPPER 550S TO MID 560S DKM RANGE TODAY...SHOULD BRING COOLER                
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. DEW POINTS SHOULD ALSO DROP INTO THE                  
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 FAHRENHEIT...WHICH SHOULD MAKE FOR A LESS                
HUMID DAY. THE PASSING HIGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR NORTH TO NORTHEAST                 
WINDS TO OCCUR NEAR THE LAKE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...KEEPING HIGHS                
THERE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.                                            
1000/500MB THICKNESSES THEN RISE BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 560S                
DKM RANGE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH A SLOW MODERATION IN                     
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY AWAY FROM THE LAKE. LIGHT WINDS AND               
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PATCHY                 
FOG TO FORM TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER               
VALLEYS AND LOW LYING AREAS. IF DEW POINTS STAY HIGHER THAN                     
EXPECTED...COULD SEE SOME DENSE FOG IN SPOTS.                                   
NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMES LATE THURSDAY IN THE WESTERN                 
COUNTIES...AS FOCUSED WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS                      
APPROACHES.                                                                     
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...                                   
POPS CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND                  
FRIDAY AS A VORTICITY MAXIMUM PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER              
THAT...THE UPCOMING WEEKEND APPEARS DRY FOR NOW...WITH ANOTHER                  
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKING INTO THE AREA.                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
AREAS OF IFR AND PATCHY LIFR IN FOG THIS MORNING UNTIL JUST AFTER               
14Z. MID LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL SWING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA                    
TODAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE BELOW 15 THSD FT...SO EXPECT SOME CU/SC                  
WITH A SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE                   
AFTERNOON. SOME MVFR CIGS EXPECTED.                                             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
SOME MORNING FOG. THEN NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE.                  
WAVES MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON AND                      
TONIGHT.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT/LONG TERM...08/WOOD                                                       
AVIATION/MARINE...06/HENTZ                                                      
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL                                               
518 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED ALONG SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING OUTFLOW OVER               
THE MAINLAND LATE YESTERDAY EVENING CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE THIS                 
MORNING...WITH SHOWERS/STORMS NOW BECOMING CONCENTRATED OVER THE                
ATLANTIC WATERS. LATEST WATER VAPOR ANIMATION ALONG WITH RUC                    
ANALYSES INDICATE THAT THE FLORIDA PENINSULA REMAINS LOCATED                    
BENEATH A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH AN AMPLIFYING                
MID-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...AND              
A WEAKER INVERTED TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS JUST                 
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE PENINSULA.                                       
GUIDANCE FROM THE NGM/NAM/GFS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOLUTIONS               
FROM THE UKMET/ECMWF IN ADVERTISING THIS STAGNANT PATTERN TO                    
PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...LIGHT                
EASTERLY FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALLOW THE ATLANTIC COAST               
SEA BREEZE TO SLOWLY MOVE INLAND LATER THIS MORNING...WITH                      
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BY LATE                   
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE              
DEVELOPMENT ALONG NUMEROUS MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES...AND LIGHT                     
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL SIDE WITH HIGHER FWC/MET POP NUMBERS                
BOTH TODAY AS WELL AS TONIGHT...TO ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING EVENING                
CONVECTION MAINLY ALONG THE EAST COAST. BY FRIDAY...THERE ARE SOME              
INDICATIONS THAT A STRONGER AND DEEPER EASTERLY FLOW REGIME MAY                 
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA...AS CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER RIDGE                
STRENGTHENS AND SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE                         
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONGER UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC. DESPITE                
THIS...AN AXIS OF LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE FLORIDA              
PENINSULA...PROVIDING A FAVORABLE THERMAL ENVIRONMENT FOR AT LEAST              
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. WILL                
PLACE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE GULF COAST TO REFLECT INCREASING --                
ALTHOUGH STILL VERY WEAK -- EASTERLY FLOW. BOUNDARY LAYER                       
EASTERLIES APPEAR TO STEADILY INCREASE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO                   
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH CORRESPONDINGLY HIGHER POPS WARRANTED FOR               
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE MAINLAND. EXPECT                 
CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO FRIDAY ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY...WITH WEAK                 
EASTERLY STEERING FLOW FOCUSING HIGHEST COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON                   
SHOWERS/STORMS OVER WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.                       
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC NOW SUGGESTS THAT                  
THIS PERSISTENT WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MAY LINGER                    
OVER THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...AND WILL                
REFLECT THIS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH NEAR CLIMO VALUES FOR                
POPS...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CLIMO ALONG THE GULF COAST.                  
CONDITIONS MAY BEGIN TO CHANGE...HOWEVER...BY THE MIDDLE OF THE                 
WEEK...AS UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA IS EVENTUALLY FORCED               
EASTWARD...ALLOWING CENTRAL ATLANTIC BRANCH OF THE SUBTROPICAL                  
UPPER RIDGE TO FINALLY BUILD OVER THE AREA. THIS...IN COMBINATION               
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW...COULD LEAD TO WARMER THAN NORMAL                          
TEMPERATURES LATE NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN.                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE FORMATION OF WATERSPOUTS               
THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND                    
BISCAYNE BAY. OTHERWISE...THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER-RELATED              
CONCERNS TO MARINERS THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH                     
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCLUDE                 
PREVAILING EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE 5-10 KNOT RANGE. THIS                 
WIND FLOW WILL MAINTAIN SEAS IN THE 1-3 FOOT RANGE ACROSS ALL OF                
THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST                     
PERIOD...WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH VALUES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM                
45-55 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES...TO 55-60 PERCENT                     
ELSEWHERE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WEST PALM BEACH  89  74  89  76 / 50 40 40 20                                   
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  76  90  78 / 50 40 40 30                                   
MIAMI            91  76  90  77 / 50 40 40 30                                   
NAPLES           90  73  90  75 / 40 30 50 30                                   
&&                                                                              
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
AM...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LONG TERM...70/DD                                                               
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...15/JR                                                     
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
355 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC 400 MB ANALYSIS SHOW A                  
WELL-DEFINED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM VA TO S CENTRAL GA TO THE WRN FL             
PANHANDLE. MUCH DRIER AIR IS FILTERING IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS              
TROUGH AND ENTERING OUR GA ZONES. DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES OVER THE              
SRN ZONES WITH RECENT GPS-MET DATA AND RUC INDICATING PWATS OF 1.9              
INCHES NEAR GAINESVILLE. AT SFC...TROUGHING IS N OF THE AREA FROM NC            
TO S CENTRAL GA TO NEAR ERN AL. SYNOPTIC FLOW FROM SFC TO 10 KFT IS             
BECOMING NW AS SEEN IN LATEST VWP AND MODEL OUTPUT GUIDANCE. SO FAR             
RADAR IS QUIET BUT ANTICIPATE SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP               
LATER THIS MORNING OVER THE SW ZONES.                                           
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT NW FLOW IN THE            
7H-5H LAYER WILL BECOME MORE NLY AS THE TROUGHING OVER THE REGION               
MOVES EWD AND HEIGHTS RISE. SFC TROUGHING N OF THE AREA WILL DROP               
SWD AND DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES WELL S AND E WITH SKIES BECOMING                  
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. A N TO S POP GRADIENT IS IN ORDER                
TODAY WITH ONLY 20% FOR GA AND 30-40% OVER NE FL. SLIGHTLY HIGHER               
POP IS ANTICIPATED FROM MARION COUNTY TO FLAGLER COUNTY IN AREA OF              
DEEPEST MOISTURE. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD FIRST BEGIN OVER THE                
INTERIOR NE FL ZONES WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER            
THETA-E AIR WILL RESIDE THROUGH MID MORNING.  DUE TO DRYING ALOFT               
AND TEMPS PUSHING THE LOWER 90S...ANY STORMS THAT GET GOING WILL BE             
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE             
HAIL. MODIFIED CAPE FROM GFS AND NAM IS ABOUT 2300-2600 AND LI OF               
-6. DIFFERENTIAL THETA VALUES ARE ESTIMATED AROUND 20-25 BUT HIGHER             
IN SE GA. MAX TEMPS HIGHER TODAY THAN WED DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER.              
TONIGHT...ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING WITH PATCHY FOG                    
OCCURRING LATE.                                                                 
FRIDAY...SFC TROUGHING OVER THE AREA AND A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS               
WILL AGAIN YIELD LOWER POPS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. PWATS OF 1.4 TO 1.7             
INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED AND DRIEST AIR WILL BE FROM ABOUT 750-450 MB.            
E COAST SEA BREEZE WILL HAVE AN EASIER TIME MOVING INLAND AND BEST              
LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL BE OVER INLAND ZONES. WILL CONT WITH THE N TO            
S POPS WITH 20% IN SE GA AND 30-40% OVER INLAND NE FL. TEMPS                    
EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO MID 90S OVER SE GA AND INLAND NE FL AND HEAT              
INDICES JUST OVER 100 DEG AT TIMES. FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY EXPECT                
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER INLAND AREAS IN THE EVENING WITH            
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN.                                                      
SATURDAY...SFC TROUGH IS NOT AS APPARENT AND RIDGING MAY WORK NWD               
OVER FL. MOISTURE IS STILL SOMEWHAT LIMITED AND E COAST SEA BREEZE              
SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM MOVING INLAND. WILL KEEP POPS LIMITED TO                 
ABOUT 20-30% FOR MOST AREAS. MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S                  
EXPECTED. ISOLATED EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS ANTICIPATED SATURDAY              
NIGHT.                                                                          
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN INDICATIONS             
OF ERN CONUS TROUGH TO DEEPEN A BIT DURING THIS TIME FRAME OR AT                
LEAST KEEPING A WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST               
AREA. GFS ENSEMBLE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS PATTERN AND KEEPS             
500 MB TEMPS IN THE -6 TO -8 C DEG RANGE. AT SFC...RIDGE AXIS WILL              
REMAIN S OF THE AREA AND WEAK TROUGHING WILL BE OVER THE SE STATES              
WILL KEEP A SWLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR                
TYPICAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND POPS IN             
THE 30-50% RANGE AT THIS TIME. TEMPS APPEAR TO BE CLOSE TO                      
NORMAL...LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S AND HIGH AROUND 90.                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS AT MOST TERMINALS               
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE GNV WHERE THERE WILL BE               
A SCATTERED DECK AT 400 FEET AND POSSIBLY TEMPO MVFR VSBY TIL 12Z.              
WITH MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT FILTERING IN TODAY BEHIND SHORT WAVE...               
EXPECTING MUCH LESS COVERAGE OF STORMS AND PRIMARILY DURING THE                 
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH WITH LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW...WILL PROBABLY              
HAVE SEABREEZES AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOWS DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND                 
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH MAY BRING IN ENOUGH MOISTURE TO HELP                 
PRODUCE A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUST POTENTIAL.                    
HAVE GONE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST OF CB AT JAX...CRG...SSI AFTER                 
18Z AND VCTS AT GNV AFTER 18Z. SOME OF THESE TERMINALS MAY NEED                 
SOME AMENDMENTS THIS AFTERNOON.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING                 
AND THEN WASHES OUT. A RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA.                    
THIS PRODUCES A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WITH WINDS MAINLY SOUTH OR                
SOUTHWEST 10 KNOTS OR LESS EXCEPT SOUTHEAST ALONG THE COAST                     
IN THE AFTERNOONS. SEAS 1 TO 3 FEET. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND                    
EVENING STORMS. STRONG WIND GUST POTENTIAL WITH SOME OF THE                     
STORMS NEAR SHORE.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
AMG  94  70  96  71 /  20  20  20  10                                           
SSI  90  75  89  76 /  20  20  10  10                                           
JAX  91  71  93  72 /  30  20  20  10                                           
SGJ  89  72  88  73 /  40  20  20  10                                           
GNV  90  70  93  70 /  40  20  40  20                                           
OCF  89  70  92  70 /  40  20  40  20                                           
&&                                                                              
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
AM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHASHY/PETERSON                                                                 
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
1251 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
234 PM CDT                                                                      
MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL CENTER AROUND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION                
NEXT FEW DAYS. GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN WITH NO                       
TEMPERATURE EXTREMES AND LITTLE THREAT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE                
WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.                                        
LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER EASTER GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY LIFT E WHILE               
SHARP RIDGE PUSHES INTO WESTERN LAKES TONIGHT. A SERIES OF MINOR                
SHORT                                                                           
WAVES WILL EVENTUALLY FLATTEN OUT HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN THU AND                
FRI. GFS SEEMS TO HAVE INITIALIZED WELL. CLUSTER OF CONVECTION AT               
NE/SD/MN/IA FOUR CORNERS AREA DEPICTED WELL. AS THIS CUTS THROUGH               
UPPER RIDGE TONIGHT IT SHOULD DROP SE ALONG THICKNESS LINES. THE                
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS ALSO EXTENDS FROM LOWER OH VALLEY BACK                  
INTO CENTRAL PLAINS. THUS EXPECT CONVECTION TO SKIRT SOUTH OF                   
FORECAST AREA INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THURSDAY.                      
ANOTHER WEAK PERTURBATION IS PRODUCING ANOTHER CLUSTER OF SHOWERS               
AND THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN ND. THIS WILL MOVE E INTO MN AND WI                   
TONIGHT AND THU AND SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO MORE STABLE/DRY              
AIR MASS AND AWAY FROM BETTER LOW LEVEL INFLOW. THUS EXPECT                     
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVER NORTHERN IL AND NORTHWEST IN THU BUT               
ONLY                                                                            
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP...MAINLY SOUTH PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA WELL           
SOUTH OF I-80.                                                                  
THERE MAY BE A SERIES OF THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS THAT TRAVERSE THIS               
BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO CENTRAL AND                    
SOUTHERN IL THU NIGHT AND FRI. AS HEIGHTS GRADUALLY BUILD SLIGHTLY              
THE                                                                             
BOUNDARY MAY CREEP NORTH CLOSER TO NORTHERN IL AND DEWPOINTS WILL               
GRADUALLY CREEP UP. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL 30 PCT POPS              
FOR MUST OF THE AREA INTO FRIDAY...BUT HIGHEST POPS WILL BE SOUTH               
OF 1-80.                                                                        
MEANWHILE MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IN NORTHERN STREAM WILL                   
EVENTUALLY CAUSE BIG UPPER LOW TO REDEVELOP/RETROGRADE INTO UPPER               
GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND...PUTTING NORTHERN IL INTO NWLY FLOW AGAIN             
AND SUPPRESS BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH AGAIN. WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT                  
CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS GFS HINTING AT A WEAK                     
SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING DOWN THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MAY             
BE A A CHANCE OF PRECIP IN SOUTHERN PART OF AREA INTO SAT BUT WILL              
MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.                                                  
GFS BRINGS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE THROUGH WESTERLIES INTO GREAT LAKES               
ABOUT TUESDAY BUT NOT MUCH CONSISTENCY WITH ECMWF...SO WILL                     
MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH                  
SURROUNDING OFFICES.                                                            
VERY PLEASANT NIGHT TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LOW DEWPOINTS.                 
DEWPOINTS WILL EVENTUALLY CREEP BACK INTO LOW TO MID 60S BY FRI                 
AND SAT BUT THAT IS CERTAINLY TOLERABLE IN LATE JULY. THEN WARM                 
DAYS AND PLEASANT NIGHTS EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST              
WINDS THU WILL ALLOW A JUST A WEAK LAKE BREEZE TO MOVE                          
INLAND...MAINLY NORTH SHORE. LITTLE BETTER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW                   
FRIDAY AND THEN WESTERLY SAT...SO NOT MUCH LAKE COOLING. WEAK                   
NORTH FLOW SUNDAY INTO EARLY WEEK SHOULD ALLOW LAKE BREEZES TO                  
RETURN. BUT THIS TIME OF YEAR NOT A WHOLE LOT OF COOLING AND                    
INLAND TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED IN LOW TO MID 80S.                                   
OVERALL VERY PLEASANT FOR LATE JULY.                                            
ALLSOPP                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
1251 AM CDT                                                                     
FOR 06Z TAFS...MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS WITH WEAK LAKE BREEZE POTENTIAL            
FOR KORD/KMDW. OTHERWISE JUST VRF MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER AND HIGH                 
LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS THROUGH NEXT 18-24 HOURS AS PAIR             
OF SHORT WAVES MOVE INTO UPPER RIDGE AND DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS                  
MO/SOUTHERN IL.                                                                 
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS NORTHEAST IL AT 05Z...WITH LIGHT PRESSURE             
GRADIENT ALLOWING CALM OR LGT/VARIABLE WIND CONDITIONS ACROSS                   
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PROGGED TO SLOWLY SHIFT                
SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IL AND OHIO VALLEY BY MIDDAY...                   
RESULTING IN LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS BY AFTERNOON.                  
VARIOUS MOS GUIDANCE DO NOT INDICATE LAKE BREEZE TODAY...THOUGH                 
WITH WEAK GRADIENT THIS MORNING...HIGH RESOLUTION NAM/RUC AND                   
LOCALLY RUN WRF ALL SUGGEST SOUTHEAST LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP BY                 
MIDDAY...MOVING THROUGH KMDW AND JUST MAKING IT TO KORD BEFORE                  
SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTH WINDS PUSH IT NORTH/EAST OF THESE TERMINALS             
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE INTRODUCED SOUTHEAST             
WINDS AT KORD/KMDW 16-17Z...WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY SHIFT BY MID                  
AFTERNOON. RETURN FLOW EXPECTED TO BE RATHER WEAK...THOUGH MID/HIGH             
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO HELP LIMIT LAND/LAKE TEMP DIFFERENTIAL AND              
KEEP LAKE BREEZE PUSH LIGHTER THAN IT OTHERWISE WOULD BE. GRADIENT              
WIND BECOMES LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AS HIGH WEAKENS AND                  
CONTINUES TO DRIFT OFF ACROSS OHIO VALLEY.                                      
CLOUD WISE...CIRRUS ALREADY STREAMING ACROSS REGION...AND AS LOW                
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED INTO THE MISSISSIPPI            
VALLEY TODAY FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH NAM/GFS INDICATE                      
MOISTENING OF MID/UPPER LEVELS TO CONTINUE...AIDED BY CONVECTIVE                
BLOW OFF FROM STORMS IN NEB/IA AND EVENTUALLY MO. SOUNDINGS/TIME                
SECTIONS INDICATE SOME HIGH BASED CU OR MID CLOUD IN 6-7 KFT RANGE              
BY AFTERNOON... THOUGH VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH RELATIVELY DRY            
AIR BELOW THAT LEVEL. APPEARS ANY REAL THREAT OF                                
PRECIP/THUNDERSTORMS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING WITH BETTER               
LOW LEVEL JET FORCING STAYING OFF TO THE WEST OF FORECAST AREA UNTIL            
THEN.                                                                           
RATZER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
215 PM...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM ONTARIO SOUTH ACROSS                  
THE WESTERN LAKES. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS IT                  
SLOWLY WEAKENS...REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE                
NEAR THE U.S. AND CANADIAN BORDER WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS                    
NORTHERN ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL                 
DEVELOP BETWEEN THIS LOW AND THE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL CONTINUE              
TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY. A WEAK TRAILING               
COLD FRONT WILL TURN WINDS WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY NIGHT               
INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES. CMS                                     
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
240 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TODAY                                                             
EVOLUTION OF CURRENT MCS IS OBVIOUSLY PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THIS             
MORNING WHICH LINES UP QUITE WELL WITH DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE              
ASSOCIATED WITH 30-40KT LLJ NOTED ON 305/310K ISENT SFCS.  THIS                 
CONVERGENCE REACHES S CENTRAL/SE SECTIONS BY 12Z-15Z SO HAVE BOOSTED            
POPS TO CATEGORICAL IN THOSE LOCATIONS AND DIMINISHED NRN PORTIONS.             
CONVECTION SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM SUSTAINING ITSELF AND WILL LIKELY             
INCREASE SOMEWHAT.  LIFTING PARCELS FROM VARIOUS ELEVATED LEVELS ON             
THE RUC DEPICT STEADY 1500-2000 J/KG CAPES WITH DECREASING CIN AND              
CONVECTION BEING ROOTED LOWER.  EFFECTIVE SRH AND ESPECIALLY                    
EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZATION AS WELL...ESPECIALLY IF             
STORMS BECOME ROOTED LOWER AS CINS SUGGEST SO MAY SEE A GRADUAL                 
INCREASE IN SVR THREAT TOWARD DAYBREAK.  HEAVY RAINS WILL BE A                  
CONCERN AS WELL WITH PWS AROUND TWO INCHES...13KFT WCDS...AND CELLS             
TRACKING OVER SAME LOCATIONS.                                                   
AIRMASS SHOULD STABILIZE SOMEWHAT DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH NO REAL             
FORCING MECHANISM NOTED SO HAVE SLIGHTS/CHANCES LINGERING BY                    
THEN...MAINLY SRN PORTIONS.  SREF AND ESPECIALLY NAM RAW TEMPS ARE              
NOT TOO BULLISH ON TEMPS WITH NAM SUGGESTING AREAS OF POST-PCPN                 
STRATUS SO WENT AT OR JUST BELOW GUIDANCE...LOWER END NE.                       
.LONG TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY                                          
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE IN PLACE FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS              
THE CWA BY THIS EVENING...WITH MUCH OF CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR. FAIR             
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WITH BEST SFC BASED CAPE SITUATED ACROSS THE              
SOUTHWESTERN CWA. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED STORMS INITIALLY WITH                   
DAYTIME HEATING...BUT EXPECT MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WITH APPROACHING            
SHORTWAVE THROUGH INTO THE LATER EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LLJ                 
STRENGTHENS. MOISTURE EXPECTED TO POOL AHEAD OF APPROACHING WEAK                
COOL FRONT SITUATED ACROSS ERN NE/WC IOWA...WITH PWATS APPROACHING              
TWO INCHES. MAIN ACTIVITY STILL EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY             
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...WITH EVERYTHING PUSHING EASTWARD                    
OVERNIGHT. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE                   
SOMEWHAT WASHED OUT...BUT IN VICINITY OF THE SRN CWA. NORTHWEST FLOW            
PATTERN CONTINUES...WITH MAIN WEAK DISTURBANCES DROPPING SOUTHEAST              
OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE AREA. HARD TO NAIL DOWN TIMING             
AND PLACEMENT...BUT INSTABILITY TO REMAIN GREATEST ACROSS THE                   
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS SFC                
HIGH PRESSURE/DRIER AIR BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN             
IOWA. LITTLE CHANGES MADE INTO THE EXTENDED RANGE...AS                          
WESTERN/CENTRAL US UPPER RIDGING FLATTENS SOME. HOWEVER STILL LOOKS             
LIKE TREND FOR WEAK WAVES TO TRAVERSE THE RIDGE...AND IMPACT THE                
AREA ALLOWING FOR UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE                  
WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...24/06Z                                                              
LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE MOVE OVER CENTRAL IOWA THOUGH IS FALLING WITH            
VFR CONDITIONS. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER             
AND WILL MOVE INTO WRN IA LATER TONIGHT. MAIN SITES AFFECTED WILL BE            
DSM THEN LATER OTM. MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED FOR A PERIOD ALL SITES AS            
THIS SYSTEM PASSES. ADDITIONAL MVFR CEILINGS MAINLY NORTH EXPECTED              
AFTER 00Z.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...BSS                                                                
LONG TERM...MJA                                                                 
AVIATION...DONAVON                                                              
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                              
311 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
08Z WATER VAPOR SHOWS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES...A                     
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATING EAST OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND A             
BROAD RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BACK WEST OVER SOUTHERN CA.                
HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS HAVE FLATTENED              
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SFC A TROUGH WAS                
FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KS STRETCHING NORTH. A MOIST AND WARM AIRMASS              
WAS FOUND EAST OF THIS TROUGH...AND ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS ONCE                
AGAIN DEVELOPED ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE.                         
FOR THIS MORNING...THE RUC AND NAM 310K ISENTROPIC SFC KEEPS THE                
BETTER MOISTURE AXIS JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.                
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST RADAR TRENDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING              
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MO. A FEW ELEVATED STORMS DEVELOPED OVER                
SOUTH CENTRAL NEB BUT HAVE SINCE FALLEN APART. SO EXPECT THE                    
MAJORITY OF THE AREA TO REMAIN DRY THIS MORNING. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT               
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING AND THEN ACROSS THE               
NORTH FOR THE AFTERNOON AS MODELS STILL SHOW A WEAK WIND SHIFT                  
SLIDING INTO NORTHERN KS. MODELS SHOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO              
BETWEEN 850 AND 800MB. THEREFORE WOULD EXPECT HIGHS TO AGAIN REACH              
THE LOWER TO MID 90S FOR MOST AREAS. COOLEST SPOT SHOULD BE                     
NORTHEAST WHERE THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A LITTLE MORE CLOUD                       
COVER...WITH THE WARMEST SPOT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.                             
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE               
HIGHER. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS            
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE              
FORECAST AREA. THINK BECAUSE OF THIS...CONVECTION THAT HAS PASSED               
JUST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THE PAST COUPLE NIGHTS WILL BE MORE                  
LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST KS. NAM AND GFS SHOW WEAK SHORTWAVES            
CLIPPING NORTHEAST KS TONIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ABUNDANT              
MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE. THEREFORE HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS            
NORTHEAST KS TONIGHT AND SPREAD CHANCE POPS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH              
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. USED PERSISTENCE FOR THE                
TEMP FORECAST AS AIRMASS APPEARS TO CHANGE LITTLE FROM DAY TO DAY.              
DO NOT EXPECT PRECIP TO OCCUR LONG ENOUGH DURING ANY GIVEN DAY TO               
APPRECIABLY HAMPER DAY TIME HEATING.                                            
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL             
VORT MAX CLIPPING NORTHEAST KS. SO MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS            
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. FORECAST WAS LEFT PRETTY MUCH IN TACT            
BEYOND SUNDAY.                                                                  
WOLTERS                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG NW-SE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT AS                
LOW LEVEL JET IS INCREASING...WITH WEAKER SHOWERS TO THE NORTHWEST              
IN GENERAL WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME IN AIRMASS OF PRECIPITABLE                 
WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES. STILL BELIEVE CONVECTION OF ANY                     
AVIATION SIGNIFICANCE WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS              
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL NEED TO              
BE MONITORED AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING APPROACH WITH GOOD                   
MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE BOUNDARIES AROUND...BUT AGAIN NOTHING                     
SUGGESTING PRECIP INCLUSION AT THIS POINT. CU MAY FORM NEAR 3000                
FEET BY MIDDAY...BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED.                         
65                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
400 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW HI AMPLITUDE TROF             
CENTERED OVER SE ONTARIO...WITH SHARP UPR RDG FM MN INTO NW ONTARIO             
BTWN THE TROF AND FALLING HGTS OVER THE NRN PLAINS/SCNTRL CAN                   
ASSOCIATED WITH A PAIR OF STRONG SHRTWS RIDING ENEWD OUT OF A MEAN              
TROF IN THE PAC NW/SW CAN. 00Z GRB RAOB DEPICTS A VERY DRY...STABLE             
AIRMASS (KINX 8...PWAT 0.74 INCH) DOMINATING THE UPR GRT LKS OVER               
SFC HI PRES CENTERED ACRS LK SUP AT 03Z. THERE ARE SOME MID CLDS                
MOVING INTO THE ERN CWA ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV ROTATING ARND DEEP               
TROF TO THE E. THE CNTRL CWA IS CLR...BUT THERE ARE SOME HI CLDS TO             
THE W PUSHING EWD THRU THE UPR RDG AXIS AND OVER VERY DRY...STABLE              
AIR ALSO SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB (KINX -13...PWAT 0.55 INCH                   
THERE). LEADING EDGE OF THIS CI IS TENDING TO FADE AS IT PUSHES EWD             
INTO THE LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVER UPR MI TO THE W OF TROF TO THE            
E. A VERY SHAPR GRADIENT IN H85 DWPT IS APRNT FM MN INTO THE NRN                
PLAINS. WHILE 00Z H85 DWPT AT INL IS ONLY 5C...THE VALUE IS 17C AT              
BIS IN RETURN SW FLW BTWN RDG OVER THE GRT LKS AND TROFFING IN THE              
PAC NW. THE INTERACTION BTWN THE RESULTING INSTABILITY SHOWN ON THE             
00Z BIS SDNG AND LEAD SHRTWV APRCHG LK WINNIPEG HAS RESULTED IN SOME            
CNVCTN AS FAR E AS THE MN/ND BORDER. HOWEVER...RATHER DRY NATURE OF             
THE MID LVLS (00Z H5 DWPT DEPRESSION 28C AT BIS) APPEARS TO BE                  
LIMITING COVG OF SHRA/TSRA IN THAT AREA.                                        
MAIN FCST CONCERN TDAY THRU TMRW WL BE TIMING BREAKDOWN OF RDG/DRY              
AIR NOW IN PLACE AND THEN COVG/STRENGTH OF CNVCTN THAT CAN SPREAD               
INTO THE UPR GRT LKS ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWVS TO THE W.                          
FOR TDAY...THE DAY WL START ON THE QUIET SIDE WITH RDG STILL IN                 
CONTROL. THE LLVL FLOW WL GRDLY SHIFT TO THE SW ONCE THE SFC-H85 RDG            
AXIS SHIFTS TO THE E. 00Z NAM/GFS SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 305K              
SFC (ARND H75) RESULTING IN INCRSG RH AT THAT LVL OVER THE W IN THE             
AFTN. 00Z NAM/RUC13 ALSO APPEAR TO GENERATE SOME ISOLD CNVCTN OVER              
THE INTERIOR W HALF OF THE FA IN THE AFTN. BUT SINCE THE HIER H85               
DWPTS ARE TO THE W AND NOT THE SW (23Z TAMDAR SDNG FM MSP SHOWED H85            
DWPT ONLY 6.5C THERE IN ABSENCE OF 00Z MPX RAOB)...PREFER THE DRIER             
00Z GFS/00Z LOCAL WRF-ARW RUN AND SISTER MODEL RUN WITH KF                      
CONVECTIVE SCHEME THAT GENERATES SCT CNVCTN ONLY OVER WRN LK SUP                
CLOSER TO THE DEEPER LARGE SCALE H85-3 QVECTOR CNVGC/DPVA ASSOCIATED            
WITH SHRTWV NOW NEAR LK WINNIPEG THAT IS RIDING INTO THE UPR RDG                
OVER ONTARIO. HAVE THUS REMOVED POPS OVER THE LAND FA EXCEPT FOR                
SOME SCHC VALUES OVER THE FAR W AFT 18Z. ELEVATED MSTR (MID CLD)                
RETURN/ WEAK DESTABILIZATION SHOWN ON FCST SDNGS WARRANTS EXCLUSION             
OF TS EXCEPT OVER FAR WRN LK SUP. GOING MAX TEMPS FCST NEEDED LTL               
ADJUSTMENT.                                                                     
SECOND SHRTWV UPSTREAM THAT WAS MOVING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES IS                  
PROGGED TO REACH NEAR LK WINNIPEG BY 12Z FRI...FURTHER WEAKENING THE            
UPR RDG IN PLACE OVER THE GRT LKS AS ITS ACCOMPANYING SFC COLD FNT              
APRCHS THE WRN LK SUP SHORE BY 12Z. WITH THE LLVL FLOW FCST TO VEER             
MORE W OVERNGT...LOOKS LIKE A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR THE HIER DWPTS             
TO THE W TO SPREAD INTO THE FA. IN FACT...00Z GFS/NAM SHOW SOME                 
SHARPER ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTENING ON THE 300K SFC SPRDG W-E DURING             
THE NGT AND SUPPORTING CHC POPS. WL GO WITH THE HIER POPS (40) ACRS             
THE NRN TIER CLOSER TO SHARPER H85-7 FGEN FCST BY NAM/GFS. ADJUSTED             
POPS CLOSE TO SHARPER ISENTROPIC LIFT...RESULTING IN REDUCED POPS               
OVER THE W WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING DRIER AIR INFLUX IN THE MID LVLS/              
CAPPING. DID INCRS POPS AGAIN LATE OVER WRN LK SUP WITH APRCH OF                
COLD FNT AND WHERE 12Z ECMWF PERSISTS IN SHOWING SHARPER DPVA AHD OF            
INCOMING SHRTWV. MSTR INFLUX/CLDS GUARANTEE A MUCH WARMER OVERNGT               
THAN EARLY THIS MRNG.                                                           
ON FRI...00Z GFS HAS TRENDED A BIT TOWARD THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWING                 
SHARPER HGT FALLS WITH A SHRTWV THAT DIGS A BIT MORE AND EXHIBITS A             
BIT MORE DIFFLUENT UPR FLOW IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A MORE POTENT            
LOOKING UPR JET. BUT WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWED LLVL DRY ADVCTN                 
OVERSPREADING THE FA EVEN AHD OF THE COLD FROPA...THE 00Z GFS SLOWS             
DOWN THE BNDRY AND ALLOWS FOR ADDITIONAL MSTR ADVCTN/MUCH HIER QPF              
AS THE DYNAMICS INTERACT WITH THE GREATER MSTR FLUX. THE 00Z UKMET              
APPEARS TO TREND IN THE DIRECTION OF THE GFS...BUT IS NOT AS EXTREME            
EVEN THOUGH ITS FCST 90KT H3 JET MAX IN SRN MN BY 00Z SAT LOOKS LIKE            
THE STRONGER 12Z ECMWF. SINCE THE 00Z GFS IS SUCH A DRASTIC CHANGE              
FM PREVIOUS RUNS...WL TEND MORE TOWARD THE NAM/CNDN/UKMET/LOCAL                 
WRF-ARW WITH KF CONVECTIVE SCHEME SCENARIO...WHICH SUPPORTS THE                 
GOING FCST HIER AFTN POPS OVER THE SCNTRL AND E WHERE LATER ARRIVAL             
OF COLD FNT WL BE IN BETTER SYNC WITH DAYTIME HTG/PSBL LK BREEZE                
INTERACTION. DESPITE THE POTENTIAL DESTABILIZATION WITH DRYING                  
ALF... WEAK LLVL CNVGC AND THE DRY ADVCTN WL LIMIT POPS. NEW SPC                
DAY2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS CWA JUST N OF SLGT TSRA RISK AREA... BUT            
INCRSG UNIDIRECTIONAL MID LVL WINDS/0-6KM BULK SHEAR APRCHG 40 KT/              
MODIFIED NAM FCST SDNG FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S AND DWPTS ARND              
63 (VS EXPLICIT MODEL FCST TO 68) SBCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1100 J/KG/MID             
LVL DRYING...SUG A POTENTIAL FOR SVR STORMS.                                    
LINGERING EVNG CNVCTN ON FRI OVER THE SCNTRL AND E WL DIMINISH WITH             
COLD FROPA...INFLUX OF LLVL DRY AIR...LOSS OF DIURNAL HTG AND                   
DEPARTURE OF LEFT EXIT DYNAMICS. BUT WITH TREND TOWARD MORE DIGGING             
OF SHRTWV/LOWER HGTS...BROUGHT BACKWASH MSTR POPS OVER NRN LK SUP A             
BIT FARTHER S TO TICKLE THE NRN CWA FRI NGT. BUT WITH BULK OF DEEP              
MSTR PROGGED TO REMAIN IN ONTARIO CLOSER TO DEEP UPR TROF FOR MID               
SUMMER...NOTHING MORE THAN SCHC POPS WARRANTED. GFS SEEMS TO BE THE             
OUTLIER IN MAINTAINING HIER BACKWASH MSTR/RH OVER LK SUP ON SAT...              
BUT WITH TREND TOWARD DEEPER TROF IN SE CAN...HESITANT TO DISCOUNT              
ITS FCST SCENARIO. WITH THAT TREND TOWARD LOWER HGTS IN MIND...                 
TENDED TOWARD THE SOMEWHAT COOLER GFS MOS TEMPS FOR FRI NGT/SAT.                
COORDINATED WITH APX/GRB/DLH.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE              
IN CONTROL AND CONVECTION REMAINING TO THE WEST UNTIL THU NIGHT.                
ONLY THING CONVECTION WILL DO IS CONTINUE TO GIVE OFF SOME MID AND              
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN THIS FORECAST THROUGH 00Z AND THEN WILL GET                
CLOSE ENOUGH TO HAVE A PROB GROUP IN KCMX THU NIGHT.                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
WINDS SHOULD BE AT OR LESS THAN 20 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL            
REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH TODAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS                
SOUTHEASTWARD. THE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST AS THE COLD FRONT                
SLIDES ACROSS THE LAKE ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN WHEN THE                
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM RETURNS...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND SHIFT SOUTH              
AGAIN ON MONDAY.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...KC                                                                 
AVIATION...GM                                                                   
MARINE...DLG                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
342 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW OVER ERN GT LAKES HAS BLOCKED THE WESTERLIES                
EARLY THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS DEVELOPING                   
ACROSS CWA. LATEST WV IMAGERY/RUC13 SHOWS INITIAL SHORTWAVE                     
ROTATING NE INTO ONTARIO UNDER INCREASING DIFFLUENT FLOW. 88D RETURNS           
OVER NORTH COUNTRY MAINLY INDICATIVE OF MID LVL MOISTURE AS 0Z INL              
SOUNDING WAS VERY DRY. A LINE OF CONVECTION HAS FORMED NEAR ND/MN               
BORDER WITHIN AN AXIS OF 85H THETAE. RUC13 ALSO INDICATES A NARROW              
TONGUE OF MID LVL WARMING HAS DEVELOPED BEHIND CONVECTION.                      
TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS CWA.           
TOUGH CLOUD FCST AS THINNING OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAY ALLOW                   
VARYING AMNTS OF SUNSHINE. A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED SFC/85H THETAE                 
AXIS OVER ND WILL TRY TO MOVE EAST. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS THAT MDLS                
SUGGEST INITIAL THERMAL AXIS MAY ONLY GET SO FAR AND STALL OVER                 
WRN HALF OF CWA....WHILE A SECOND AXIS FORMS IN RESPONSE TO                     
SECONDARY...AND STRONGER... MID LVL DISTURBANCE. OVERALL SYNOPTIC               
SUPPORT FOR ASCENT IS MEAGER WITH MAIN UPPER JET TRAVERSING WELL                
SOUTH OF REGION. HAVING SAID THAT...INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT MDLS               
ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE                   
TODAY AS FAIRLY HIGH PWS ENTER REGION. BY LATE AFTERNOON...4KM                  
NMM/WRF SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY PRODUCT GENERATES CONVECTION OVER                
WRN CWA AND PUSHES THE DEVELOPMENT ESE OVERNIGHT. THIS APPEARS                  
REASONABLE CONSIDERING DEVELOPMENT OF NWLY MID LVL FLOW TONIGHT.                
MDLS FCST SBCAPES INTO 1500/2000 J/KG RANGE LATE AFTERNOON INTO                 
EVENING OVER WRN THIRD OF CWA. GFS SIG SVR PARAMETER VALUES ARE                 
MAXIMIZED OVER CASS LAKE/BRAINERD LAKES VICINITY BY EARLY EVENING.              
SPC HAS OUTLINED AN AREA WEST OF A CDD-HIB-MALMO LINE FOR SLIGHT                
RISK OF SVR STORMS.                                                             
FRIDAY...MDLS DIVERGE ON AMPLITUDE/SPEED OF PRIMARY MID LVL                     
FEATURE...DEEPENING TROF. THIS IMPACTS CONFIDENCE ON CONVECTIVE                 
ASPECT OF FCST. EC WOULD PUSH INSTABILITY QUICKLY ACROSS CWA                    
FRIDAY...MINIMIZING SVRWX THREAT. GFS IS A BIT SLOWER/DEEPER WITH               
TROF AND ALLOWS SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS SE ZONES              
OF NW WISCONSIN. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES FRIDAY ACROSS ENTIRE CWA                
AS MID LVL TROF MOVES OVERHEAD. SHOULD SEE SOME HAILERS/GUSTY WINDS.            
EXTENDED...BRISK NWLY MID LVL FLOW DOMINATES WEEKEND. CURRENT FCST              
IS DRY BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION WITH VERY                 
STEEP LAPSE RATES. MSTR IS LIMITED SO IF RW/TRW DEVELOP...SHOULD                
BE OVER ARROWHEAD. VERY PLEASANT TEMPS SAT/SUN. NEXT CHANCE OF                  
PRECIP MON NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY PER GFS/EC.                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH NE MN EARLY THIS                            
MORNING WITH ISOLD CIGS IN THE MVFR RANGE. THE SHOWERS WILL SPREAD              
INTO NW WI BY MID MORNING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED             
ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND                   
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT                
APPROACHES FROM THE W. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE            
THUNDERSTORMS.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  73  61  80  54 /  30  30  20  10                                           
INL  77  58  78  53 /  30  20  20  10                                           
BRD  82  63  83  55 /  30  30  20  10                                           
HYR  77  61  83  53 /  30  30  30  10                                           
ASX  72  60  81  55 /  30  30  30  10                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
CANNON/GSF                                                                      
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION                                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                            
1106 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
/913 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008/                                                    
UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT BASED ON                     
EXTENSIVE AREA OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING SE OUT OF IA. ALSO                 
UPPED POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATERGORY IN THE FAR NWRN PART OF THE                
CWA AS PAST FEW RUNS OF RUC ARE SHOWING DECENT 925-850MB FORCING                
ON THE EDGE OF 500-1000MB MUCAPES USING 850MB PARCELS. ALSO                     
TRIMMED LOWS A BIT IN THE SERN PART OF THE CWA AS TEMPERATURES ARE              
FALLING OFF PRETTY QUICKLY AND DEWPOINTS ARE NEAR 60.                           
BRITT                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
/353 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008/                                                    
SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS PUMPING UNSEASONABLY             
COOL AND DRY AIR INTO CWFA.  TEMPS HAVE ONLY RISEN INTO THE UPPER               
70S TO LOW 80S BY 300 PM WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.  HEAT             
AND HUMIDITY IS NOT THAT FAR AWAY THO WITH JOPLIN READING 91/72 AT              
200 PM.  AS THE SURFACE RIDGE DRIFTS EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE                
WEEK WE`LL SEE THE MOISTURE ENCROACH BACK INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN              
MISSOURI.  NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DUE TO THE TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES            
AND THE ELONGATED RIDGE OVER THE PLANS AND SOUTHWEST WILL ALLOW                 
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TO RIPPLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.  THESE WAVES            
COMBINED WITH AN ACTIVE LOW LEVEL JET ARE SETTING UP THE POTENTIAL              
FOR A WET PATTERN STARTING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING AT LEAST THROUGH             
FRIDAY...AND POTENTIALLY INTO SATURDAY AS WELL.  OPERATIONAL MODELS             
ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE 2 OR 3 MCS`S TO                 
AFFECT MAINLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA...BUT                   
NAILING DOWN THE SPECIFICS IS DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT.  IT LOOKS LIKE            
STARTING THE RAIN TOMORROW WILL BE THE RESULT OF NOCTURNAL                      
CONVECTION TONIGHT OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND IOWA THAT WILL ROLL                
DOWN INTO NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WESTERN ILLINOIS LATE TONIGHT OR               
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  RESULTING MCV WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A               
FOCUS FOR DAYTIME CONVECTION TO CONTINUE DURING THE DAY. HAVE BUMPED            
POPS UP TO LIKELY/HIGH CHANCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND                   
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.  ANOTHER MCS LOOKS LIKELY TO DEVELOP              
SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHERN IOWA/NORTHERN MISSOURI THURSDAY NIGHT AND IT            
SHOULD ROLL EAST/SOUTHEAST AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE BI-STATE AREA              
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.  OF COURSE...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY             
PROVIDE FOCI FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY                     
AFTERNOON.  THIS PATTERN COULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND             
AS THE LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO UNDERCUT PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW            
ALOFT...THO I THINK THE PRIMARY MCS TRACK WILL STAY NORTH OVER IOWA             
AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS.                                              
CARNEY                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
/1043 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008/                                                   
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...                                                             
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO DOMINATE AREA WEATHER PATTERN               
LATE THIS EVENING. HIGHER MOISTURE WILL SPREAD BACK ACROSS THE                  
REGION ON THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NAM              
AND LOCAL WRF MODELS FORECAST A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS                
WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTH MO TOWARD SUNRISE AND THEN DROP DOWN INTO              
CENTRAL MO LATE MORNING AND THEN DROP APART.                                    
TPS                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WFO LSX                                                                         
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
1127 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                     
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...                                                        
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS A                  
MODEST LOW LEVEL S-SW FLOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME MODEST LIFT                
ALONG AN ELEVATED NW-SE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NW MO INTO THE MO                 
OZARKS. CAPES DEPICTED BY THE RUC STILL PRETTY STOUT OVER                       
KS...WITH MLCAPES 2000+ J/KG. THIS WEAKENS INTO THE MO OZARKS...                
WITH MLCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG...BUT MUCAPES STILL 1500-2000 J/KG.               
STILL HAVE ONE GOOD PERSISTENT UPDRAFT OVER EAST CENTRAL KS...AND A             
WEAKER CLUSTER OVER WEST CENTRAL MO. BELIEVE WE WILL SEE THIS                   
ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUE FOR AWHILE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.               
MAY BE A SIMILAR STORY FOR THE COMING DAYS...WITH THE NW-SE                     
BAROCLINIC ZONE STUCK OVER THE AREA. DSA                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 0000 UTC KSGF/KJLN TAFS...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED                  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE                          
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ALONG A WEAK ELEVATED FRONT FROM THE KC METRO                
AREA SOUTHEAST INTO THE MO OZARKS. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SOME                  
MENTION OF SHOWERS/VICINITY SHOWERS FOR KSGF OVERNIGHT. ANY PRECIP              
SHOULD BE BRIEF. WILL KEEP TAFS VFR...BUT MAY SEE SOME                          
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN WED...BUT                      
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO CARRY A MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. WE               
MAY SEE SOME REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY IN LIGHT FOG/HAZE AGAIN                    
TOWARD DAWN. DSA                                                                
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
920 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS A                  
MODEST LOW LEVEL S-SW FLOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME MODEST LIFT                
ALONG AN ELEVATED NW-SE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NW MO INTO THE MO                 
OZARKS. CAPES DEPICTED BY THE RUC STILL PRETTY STOUT OVER                       
KS...WITH MLCAPES 2000+ J/KG. THIS WEAKENS INTO THE MO OZARKS...                
WITH MLCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG...BUT MUCAPES STILL 1500-2000 J/KG.               
STILL HAVE ONE GOOD PERSISTENT UPDRAFT OVER EAST CENTRAL KS...AND A             
WEAKER CLUSTER OVER WEST CENTRAL MO. BELIEVE WE WILL SEE THIS                   
ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUE FOR AWHILE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.               
MAY BE A SIMILAR STORY FOR THE COMING DAYS...WITH THE NW-SE                     
BAROCLINIC ZONE STUCK OVER THE AREA. DSA                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 0000 UTC KSGF/KJLN TAFS...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED                   
CONVECTION WEST AND SOUTH OF THE TAFS SITES...BUT ACTUAL WEAK SFC               
BOUNDARY STILL EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL KS INTO THE MO OZARKS. WILL                 
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT ALONG AN ELEVATED                
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATER TONIGHT FROM THE KC METRO AREA SOUTH INTO                
CENTRAL MO AND THE MO OZARKS. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SHALLOW FOG                   
WHERE HEAVIER RAIN FELL TODAY...BUT THE TAF SITES ESCAPED THE                   
HEAVIER RAINFALL SO WILL LEAVE BOTH TAFS VFR THROUGH WED. DSA                   
&&                                                                              
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
421 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY                                          
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE FACING THE SHORT TERM IS PCPN CHANCES AGAIN                 
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.                                                   
LATEST MSAS ANLYS SHOWS SFC BOUNDARY DRAPED NW-SE ACROSS WRN PART               
OF THE CWA...WITH ONLY TELLING DIFFERENCE IS THE L-M50 DWPTS                    
LOCATED ACROSS THE NW PART OF SD. AREAS OF LOW STRATUS/FOG IS                   
SETTING UP UNDER TROF AXIS WHERE MIXING WINDS ARE MINIMAL. HAVE                 
INSERTED SOME PATCHY FOG WORDING FOR THIS MORNING ACROSS ALL THE                
CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.                                                        
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ALL AGREE ON                 
85H/925H BOUNDARY REMAINING PROGRESSIVE ACROSS THE NORTH...WHILE                
HANGING UP ACROSS SRN SD BY 00Z. 5H WAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY                      
TRACKING ACROSS MT WILL INTERSECT THE SFC/LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES                  
DURING PEAK HEATING ACROSS THE EAST...AND THERE SHOULDN`T BE THE                
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS IN PLACE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...AND WITH               
DWPTS ALREADY IN THE MID 60S...AND DWPTS IN THE LOWER 70S IN PLACE              
ACROSS PARTS OF NERN NEB...THE MECHANISM SHOULD BE RESET FOR                    
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE                
TO SEE HOW MUCH OF A ROLE THE LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS PLAY UNDER TROF                
AXIS...AND WHETHER OR NOT THEY CAN BE MIXED OUT. LATEST RUC SHOWS               
THAT 7H THETA-E DOWNGLIDE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH 18Z FOR MUCH OF              
THE CWA...WITH WAA RETURNING TO THE WEST LATER IN THE AFTN PER THE              
06Z NAM12 SOLN. BY 00Z FRIDAY...NAM12 SHOWS AREA OF BEST LI`S                   
LOCATED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF NE-SW DRAPED SFC BOUNDARY...WITH                
LI`S TO -8...ALONG WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPES FROM 1500 TO 3000                   
J/KG. HAVE TRIED TO ORIENT POPS ALONG SFC BOUNDARY FOR LATER THIS               
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH RESPECT FOR THE OVERNIGHT                     
HOURS...MODELS AGREE ON PRESSURE RISES ON THE 305-315K                          
LAYERS...ALONG WITH SPEC HUMIDIES DECREASING ACROSS MY NW CWA.                  
THETA-E ANLYS POINTS TO DOWNGLIDE AND DRYING NOTED IN THE RH                    
FIELDS. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF POPS ACROSS THE NW FOR THE                      
OVERNIGHT HOURS ON ACCOUNT OF THIS. OVERALL...VERY DIFFICULT AND                
COMPLEX CONVECTIVE FCST SETTING UP FOR TODAY...AND WILL BE HIGHLY               
DEPENDANT UPON LOCATION OF SFC BOUNDARY AND TIMING OF 5H/7H WAVES.              
THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR FRIDAY AS THE NAM SHOWS SFC BOUNDARY                  
REMAINING STALLED ACROSS SRN SD...ALLOWING MORE CONVECTIVE                      
DEVELOPMENT TO TAKE PLACE LATER IN THE AFN. THE GFS REMAINS MORE                
PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...PUSHING IT OUT OF STATE DURING THE              
DAY FRIDAY...WHICH ALLOWS COOLER/DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO                  
SETTLE IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE NEARLY ZONAL              
FLOW SETTING UP ALOFT AND THAT FLOW REMAINS NEARLY CROSSWISE TO                 
SFC FRONTAL POSITION...HAVE OPTED WITH THE GFS SOLN AND KEPT PCPN               
OUT OF FCST FOR FRIDAY.                                                         
TEMP WISE...THINK THAT TODAY WILL BE WARMEST DAY OF THE SHORT                   
TERM...WITH DECENT SUNSHINE PROVIDED THAT LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS BURN               
OFF BY 15Z. DIDN`T GO REALLY WILD WITH HEATING AS AMPLE LOW LEVEL               
MOISTURE WILL ABSORB SOME OF THE HEATING ENERGY...BUT SHOULD PROVE              
TO BE A MUGGY DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST.                                 
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY                                   
00Z EC/GFS OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS STILL SHOWING REASONABLY SIMILAR               
UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE SOLUTIONS. OVER THIS CWA...MUCH OF THE                  
EXTENDED FORECAST IS A PERIOD OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WITH                  
STEERING FLOW PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE WNW. IN THE LOW LEVELS...HIGH              
PRESSURE IS PARKED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH                 
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA IN SERLY RETURN FLOW WHILE THE EASTERN              
HALF IS EITHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OR WINDS OUT OF THE                     
NORTHEAST. BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP OVER THE CWA                      
CONTINUES TO EXIST SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY/MONDAY                       
NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE FORM OF AN MCC MEATBALL ORIGINATING               
OVER EASTERN MONTANA/SWRN NODAK AND PROPAGATING SEWD THROUGH THIS               
CWA...AND MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT IN THE FORM OF CONVECTION GOING UP                
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SYNOPTIC SCALE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED               
TO WORK THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. NO CHANGES MADE TO                  
MAX/MIN T GRIDS AS...THEY APPEAR SPOT ON WHEN COMPARED WITH 00Z                 
LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS OF THE EC AND GFS MODELS.                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LOW LEVEL GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE ABOUNDS IN THE LOWEST COUPLE                  
THOUSAND FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE THIS MORNING. COUPLE THAT WITH                  
VACATING MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE               
AND THE RESULT IS FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE              
FORECAST AREA. BEEN MONITORING THE MOVEMENT OF A SURFACE TROF                   
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL DAKOTAS THIS MORNING. THE TROF AXIS              
WILL BE POSITIONED OVER KMBG AND CLOSE TO KPIR THIS MORNING AT                  
SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST HERE...AND SURFACE OBS ARE                      
RESPONDING WITH IFR VISBIES IN GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT. THIS IFR                 
VISBY CONDITION IN SHALLOW GROUND FOG ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH                  
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED...DIMINISHING SHORTLY                
AFTER SUNRISE.                                                                  
FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE KABR AND KATY TERMINALS...SURFACE WINDS OF              
5 TO 10 KNOTS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MVFR VISBIES AND SOME IFR CIGS                
IN LOW STRATUS THROUGH MID-MORNING. SHOULD NOT TAKE LONG FOR                    
DAYTIME INSOLATION TO MIX OUT THE LOW CLOUDS.                                   
AFTER 15Z THIS MORNING...GOOD VFR SHOULD RESUME ACROSS ALL FOUR                 
TERMINALS. LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THIS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED                     
SURFACE TROF WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING                    
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE BOUNDARY WILL BE ORIENTED ROUGHLY FROM               
KPIR TO KATY...SO EXPECT THESE TWO TERMINALS TO BEGIN CARRYING                  
SOME SORT OF CONVECTION MENTION /EITHER CB OR VCTS/ IN THE LATE                 
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TIMEFRAME.                                              
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...HINTZ                                                              
LONG TERM...DORN                                                                
AVIATION...DORN                                                                 
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN                                                            
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
104 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS                
AFTERNOON AND THEN INTO OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED STRONG                 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE NUMEROUS                    
STORMS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN                
BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY BRINGING DRIER WEATHER FOR WEEKS END.              
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
ALREADY UPDATED TO LOWER POPS WEST THIS MORNING IN WAKE OF OUTFLOW              
AND INCREASE IN THE PIEDMONT WHERE OLD BOUNDARY OFF THE MCS HAS                 
STALLED. WITH OLD MCS EXITING TO THE NORTH AND FRONT STILL WELL TO              
THE NW EXACT COVERAGE OF ADDED CONVECTION IFFY THIS AFTERNOON WITH              
GUIDANCE OFFERING SEVERAL DIFFERING SOLUTIONS. LATEST NAM APPEARS               
TOO FAR EAST WITH SIG TSRA THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE GFS TO THE                  
WEST WITH NEXT ROUND OF TSRA CLOSER TO THE FRONT. LOCAL WRF AND                 
LATEST RUC IN BETWEEN WITH MORE DEVELOPMENT WESTERN SLOPES TO THE               
BLUE RIDGE WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE. MODIFIED               
MORNING RAOBS ALSO SHOW QUITE A BIT OF CAPE WEST UNDER DEEPER RH                
AND LESS EAST. THINK DEEP BUT RATHER WEAK WESTERLY FLOW COMBO WITH              
PASSING OUTFLOW MAY DELAY NEW DEVELOPMENT BEFORE NEXT S/W                       
APPROACHES ALLOWING THE FLOW TO BACK MORE SW LATER ON. THIS                     
SUPPORTS BETTER COVERAGE ALONG WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE WILL                
KEEP HIGHEST POPS AND LOW CHANCE EASTERN ZONES.                                 
OTRW ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON IN STORE WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES RUNNING            
AROUND +22-23C AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.              
HOWEVER SIMILAR TO MONDAY THINK DEWPOINTS WILL MIX OUT A BIT                    
ALLOWING HEAT INDICES TO REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA                    
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. 12Z THICKNESS ALSO IN SUPPORT OF PUSHING                   
HIGHS TO AROUND 100 SE WITH MID/UPR 90S ELSW OVER THE EAST...BUT                
SLIGHTLY LOWER MID/UPR 80S FAR WEST WHERE WILL SEE MORE                         
CLOUDS/TSRA.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...                                 
MORE STRONG STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT                 
APPROACHES THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN            
THE EAST...WILL BE IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. THE             
COMBINATION OF THE FRONT AND JET DYNAMICS WILL BRING ABOUT ANOTHER              
ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS TO THE REGION.                      
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT MAY BE SLOW TO MOVE TO THE EAST COAST SO               
WILL HANG ON TO SOME POPS IN THE PIEDMONT THURSDAY MORNING.                     
DRIER SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL MOVING INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY.              
BY FRIDAY...THETA-E BOUNDARY BUCKLES BACK TO THE NORTH WITH HEAT AND            
HUMIDITY INCREASING INTO THE WEEKEND.                                           
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA...WE COULD               
SEE A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES COULD            
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE GREENBRIER VALLEY TO LOWER 90S           
IN THE PIEDMONT.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                         
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN AND STRENGTHEN OVER               
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...EVENTUALLY DISPLACING THE HEAT AND                      
HUMIDITY AT LEAST FROM THE NW HALF OF THE CWA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.               
WHILE THIS OCCURS...SHWS/TSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT THIS                
WEEKEND. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH ON SATURDAY                      
FIRST...WITH POSSIBLY MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SUNDAY                
WHEN THE COLD FRONT CROSSES. ALTHOUGH MANY COLD FRONTS HAVE                     
PERISHED BEFORE CLEARING THE NC/VA BORDER...IF SOME OF THE LR                   
MODELS VERIFY IN REGARDS TO THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE                    
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...THIS FRONT MAY ACTUALLY PASS FAR                 
ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRING A NICE STRING OF NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW                 
NORMAL TEMPS...AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                       
WEAK SINKING MOTION BEHIND EARLIER MCS CONTINUES TO SLOW CU AND                 
SUBSEQUENT CONVECTION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH HEATING                
EXPECT SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF TSRA ESPCLY OVER THE WEST IN ADVANCE               
OF NEXT WEAK IMPULSE ADVECTING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY. BUFKIT                    
SUGGESTS MUCH OF THIS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 20Z BUT THEN                     
LINGER SE WVA INTO TONIGHT. THUS WILL SLOW DOWN TIMING OF TSRA                  
ONSET AND INCLUDE VICINITY MENTION MOST SPOTS FROM LATE AFTERNOON               
THRU 00Z. AREAS OF IFR/MVFR FOG ALSO POSSIBLE ESPCLY VALLEYS WHERE              
EARLIER RAINFALL OCCURRED. OTRW MAINLY VFR INTO TONIGHT OUTSIDE                 
SHRA. COLD FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NW WED WITH ONGOING SHRA/TSRA                
BAND OR QUICK REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION LIKELY TAKING PLACE                   
FROM WEST TO EAST. MAY INCLUDE SOME PREVAILING VSBY REDUCTION IN                
SE WVA IN THE MORNING OTRW RUNNING WITH CB MENTION BY MIDDAY FAR                
WEST.                                                                           
CONVECTION LIKELY TO LINGER INTO WED EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES                 
THROUGH WITH DRYING CONDITIONS ON THU UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE.                 
THIS SHOULD ALSO KEEP VFR CONDITIONS ONGOING INTO LATE WEEK BEFORE              
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS BY                
SAT OR SUNDAY.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...JH/RCS                                                               
NEAR TERM...JH/RCS                                                              
SHORT TERM...RCS                                                                
LONG TERM...KM                                                                  
AVIATION...JH/JS                                                                
</pre> va                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
338 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT                                      
FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY THROUGH            
FRIDAY EVENING...TEMPERATURES.                                                  
DATA ANALYSIS AT 06Z HAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM JAMES BAY SOUTH             
INTO WI AND IL. LOW PRESSURE WAS LIFTING NORTH OF LK WINNIPEG WITH              
A TRAILING TROUGH/COLD SOUTH THRU THE DAKOTAS TO EASTERN CO. FOG-               
PRODUCT/IR IMAGERY/SFC OBS SHOWED WIDESPREAD MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS             
MN/IA/WI AS MOISTURE PUSHED INTO/THRU THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS. WEAK TO             
MDT 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E CONVERGENCE RESPONSIBLE FOR            
BAND OF SCT -SHRA FROM NORTHWEST OF KMSP TO SOUTHEAST IA. STRONGER/             
DEEPER CONVECTION WAS IN THE KFSD/KOMA AREAS ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL               
JET/STRONGER 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND INSTABILITY. ALL THE                  
SHRA/TSRA MOVING SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING...FOLLOWING CORFIDI               
VECTORS QUITE NICELY.                                                           
NO LARGE ERRORS NOTED WITH 24.00Z NAM/GFS INITIALIZATIONS...WITH                
THESE 2 MODELS PRESENTING RATHER SIMILAR SOLUTIONS FOR TODAY THRU               
SAT NIGHT. DPROG/DT OF 500MB HGTS AT 24.00Z SHOWED NAM/GFS RUNS OF              
22.00Z AND 23.00Z VERIFIED QUITE WELL ACROSS NOAM...WITH EDGE AND               
BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY TO GFS OVER EASTERN NOAM AND TO                   
NAM WITH THE TROUGHS OVER OR/WA AND SASKAT/ND. THRU 36HRS TREND IS              
TOWARD MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND A BIT                 
SLOWER/STRONGER WITH THE TROUGHS NEAR LK WINNIPEG AND OFF THE WEST              
COAST AT 12Z FRI. FOR 36-84HRS TREND IS FURTHER WEST/SLOWER WITH                
THE UPPER LOW NEAR JAMES BAY AND WITH THE NEXT TROUGH NEARING THE               
BC COAST. THIS LEAVES THE AREA MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE                  
EASTERN CAN UPPER LOW/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE WEEKEND. CHECK OF            
OBS VS. MODEL DATA AT 06Z SHOWED NAM/GFS WITH REASONABLE DEPICTIONS             
OF THE SFC MASS FIELDS ACROSS CENTRAL NOAM. PER WV IMAGERY MODELS               
REASONABLE WITH THE SHORTWAVE DETAILS ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH NO                
CLEAR FAVORITE ON THE DETAILS. GFS GENERALLY BETTER WITH THE 00Z-               
06Z PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION. NO CLEAR DETERMINISTIC MODEL OF CHOICE            
THIS CYCLE. WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS QUITE SIMILAR...INCLUDING UKMET/               
ECMWF AND LCL/RUC WRF MODELS...FAVORING ONE OVER THE OTHER AGAIN                
LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR TODAY INTO              
SAT NIGHT. AGAIN FAVORED A MODEL/ENSEMBLE COMPROMISE THIS CYCLE.                
SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON THE GOOD SIDE.                                
FOR THE SHORT TERM...GENERALLY WEAK 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/               
THETA-E CONVERGENCE PRODUCING THE SCT -SHRA FROM EAST CENTRAL MN TO             
SOUTHEAST IA WEAKENS OR DROPS SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY                 
15Z THIS MORNING. STRONGER THERMODYNAMIC FORCING FOR CONVECTION                 
OVER SOUTHEAST SD/WESTERN IA WEAKENS/DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS IA THIS             
MORNING AS WELL. UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH                   
RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS AND AN INVERSION REMAINING NEAR                 
800MB. THIS AND CONSIDERABLE DEBRIS MOISTURE/CLOUDINESS LIMIT CAPE              
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA TODAY. ALL THIS LEAVES THE AREA WITH                  
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING/LIFT/INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION                    
TODAY/TONIGHT AND LOWERED MOST RAIN CHANCES THESE PERIODS TO SLIGHT             
CHANCE. RESURGENCE OF LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT TONIGHT RE-              
FIRES CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL IA...BUT GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE            
DETAILS THAT THIS FORCING WILL REMAIN/PASS SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST            
AREA TONIGHT. DID LEAVE A BIT HIGHER RAIN CHANCE ACROSS NORTHEAST IA            
TONIGHT WITH THAT AREA CLOSER TO THE CONVECTIVE FORCING/INSTABILITY.            
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY INCREASE OVER THE AREA FRI...AHEAD OF THE                  
TROUGH/FRONT. MIXED LAYER CAPES INCREASE TO THE 1K-2K J/KG RANGE FOR            
FRI AFTERNOON. 0-6KM SHEAR INCREASES AS WELL WITH SWODY2 LOOKING                
REASONABLE. WITH THE TREND TOWARD A SLOWER/STRONGER TROUGH/FRONTAL              
PASSAGE ON FRI...AND THE MDT/STRONG CAPE/SHEAR...RAISED SHRA/TSRA               
CHANCES FOR FRI. DUE TO THE SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SOME                     
LINGERING INSTABILITY...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES FRI EVENING LOOK WELL                 
TRENDED AND RAISED THESE A BIT AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER               
AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SLIDE INTO THE AREA FOR SAT/SAT                
NIGHT. THE DRY FORECAST FOR THESE PERIODS CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD.               
GENERALLY FAVORED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE HIGHS TODAY. SHOULD BE                    
PLENTY OF DEBRIS CLOUDINESS TODAY...BUT ANY HOLES IN THE CLOUDS THIS            
AFTERNOON WOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO JUMP QUICKLY. GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT/             
FRI NIGHT SIMILAR AND LOOK GOOD. TRENDED TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE              
HIGHS FRI...AHEAD OF THE TROUGH/FRONT. GUIDANCE HIGHS SIMILAR AND               
REASONABLE FOR SAT. WITH THE DRIER HIGH BUILDING IN...TRENDED LOWS              
DOWN A BIT FOR SAT NIGHT TOWARD THE 24.00Z GFS MEX-MOS GUIDANCE.                
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY                                           
24.00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH                
OTHER FOR THE SUN-WED PERIOD. RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY REMAINS GOOD ON            
SUN. BY MON/TUE THIS STARTS TO DECREASE AS MODELS TREND TOWARD A                
STRONGER SHORTWAVE PUSHING THRU THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE AXIS MON...              
THEN DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION TUE. THIS TREND TOWARD 23.00Z                   
ECMWF RUN...WHICH LOOKED LIKE AN OUTLIER AT THE TIME. SOME TIMING               
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS WAVE DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION...BUT BOTTOM              
LINE LOOKS TO BE THE AREA REMAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THRU               
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. STILL SOME THREAT FOR CONVECTION ON SUN...             
HOWEVER MODEL CONSENSUS INCREASING FOR THE FORCING FOR THIS TO                  
REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. DID ADD A SMALL SHRA/TSRA                
CHANCE TO TUE WITH THE INCREASING MODEL SIGNAL/CONSENSUS FOR A                  
TROUGH/FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH THE CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...              
TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL. THIS WELL TRENDING             
IN THE DAY 4-7 GRID-SET AT THIS TIME.                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT                                                   
CONTINUE TO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST MUCH OF THE                  
AFTERNOON...BEFORE TRENDS TO POTENTIAL MVFR CEILINGS AND PERHAPS                
VSBYS COME INTO THE FORECAST. BANDS OF MAINLY -SHRA TO CONTINUE TO              
WORK EAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING...BUT RAINFALL SPOTTY               
AND LIGHT AND CEILINGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGELY VFR. MAINLY             
LGT SLY FLOW FOR THE TAF SITES TODAY...WITH THIS BRINGING A HIGHER              
MOISTURE AIRMASS INTO THE TAF SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.               
INDICATIONS IN THE BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC DATASETS FOR            
AN MVFR STRATOCUMULUS FIELD TO DEVELOP WITH THIS LOW LEVEL THETA-E              
ADVECTION...AND POTENTIAL FOR HAZE/BR TO BE WIDESPREAD IN THE 4-6SM             
RANGE OVERNIGHT. THERE/S A MORE SUBTLE INDICATION IN THE ABOVE                  
DATASETS FOR IFR FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z GIVEN LIGHT FLOW...AND                
WEAK CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WOULD BE DEPENDENT ON LOWER             
MVFR CEILINGS BREAKING UP...WHICH MAY NOT HAPPEN. FOR NOW...WILL                
CONTINUE TRENDS OF LOWERING VIS INTO MVFR CATEGORIES TONIGHT AND                
CONTINUE MVFR CEILINGS ALREADY FORECAST.                                        
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT/LONG TERM...RRS                                                           
AVIATION..........BINAU                                                         
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
1050 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
14Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING AN ACTIVE NORTHERN                  
STREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN CANADA.             
FURTHER SOUTH WE FIND AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE FROM SOUTHERN                    
CALIFORNIA TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. "THE SUMMER OF               
THE EAST COAST TROUGH" CONTINUES TO HOLD ITS PATTERN WITH AMPLIFIED             
TROUGHING FOR LATE JULY COVERING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...MID                  
ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES. THE TROUGH IS ANCHORED BY A CLOSED             
LOW OVER WESTERN NY/SE ONTARIO. FURTHER UPSTREAM WE FIND ANOTHER                
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN              
PLAINS. AS THE CURRENT EAST COAST TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT FRIDAY              
INTO SATURDAY...THIS NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY IN LINE WILL AMPLIFY AND              
TAKES IT PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OUR FORECAST AREA RESIDES IN A             
MID/UPPER LEVEL NW/N FLOW PATTERN WEDGED IN BETWEEN THE TROUGHING TO            
OUR NORTHEAST AND THE RIDGING TO OUR WEST. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS               
THIS NW FLOW HAS DELIVERED A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER UPPER LEVEL AIRMASS            
INTO THE SOUTHEAST.                                                             
AT THE SURFACE...MORNING RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING SURFACE RIDGING                   
TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE FL PENINSULA AND EASTERN GULF AND WEAK                    
TROUGHING FURTHER NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL GA/AL. EXPANSIVE AREA OF LOW             
CLOUDS/FOG ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND                   
SOUTH-CENTRAL GA FORMED DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS AS               
THE UPPER LEVEL DRIER AIR OVERRODE THE MOIST LOW LEVELS                         
PRECONDITIONED BY RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY. NOCTURNAL CONVECTION THAT              
FORMED NEAR THE COAST AND ACROSS THE NEARSHORE MARINE LEGS EARLY                
THIS MORNING IS SETTLING SOUTHWARD INTO THE OFFSHORE LEGS AND                   
WEAKENING.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES ARE FINALLY BEGINNING TO SHOW              
SIGNS OF DISSIPATING AS DIURNAL HEATING BEGINS TO MIX THE LOWER                 
LEVELS. WITH THE DISSIPATION EXPECT A SCT CU FIELD TO DEVELOP                   
REGIONWIDE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE              
INCREASES WITH DEVELOPING SEA-BREEZES AND ASSOCIATED WITH THE                   
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTH. TEMPERATURE RISES HAVE BEEN SLOWED             
ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE LOWER CLOUDS BUT EXPECT THESE AREAS TO                
CATCH UP QUICKLY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE BETTER INSOLATION                
DEVELOPS...AND STILL ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S BY               
THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON.                                                         
12Z KTLH SOUNDING REALLY SHOWS THE ARRIVAL OF THE DRIER AIR                     
ALOFT WITH SIGNIFICANT INCREASES IN DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ABOVE                  
AROUND 600MB SINCE LAST EVENING AND A DROP IN PW FROM AROUND 2" DOWN            
TO AROUND 1.6". ALSO HAVE SEEN MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES RISE AROUND 3             
DEGREES IN THE MID-LEVELS FROM YESTERDAY. THIS WAS PREDICTED WELL BY            
EARLIER MODEL SOUNDINGS AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION                 
BELOW. MODIFYING THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING FOR AN AFTERNOON SURFACE                
PARCEL OF 91/68 YIELDS CAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG (A BIT BELOW                
CLIMO). WITH THE WARMER MID-LEVELS TODAY...THE FREEZING LEVEL IS                
ALSO QUITE HIGH AT JUST UNDER 15KFT.                                            
DUE TO THE ATMOSPHERE BEING SLIGHTLY MORE CONVECTIVELY HOSTILE...               
DO NOT EXPECT THE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF STORMS SEEN ON WEDNESDAY               
AFTERNOON/EVENING. 1000-700MB MEAN FLOW IS N/NW AT AROUND 10 KNOTS.             
THIS TYPE OF FLOW REGIME TENDS TO PIN THE SEA-BREEZE TOWARD THE                 
COAST WITH SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN             
ZONES. OFTEN HOWEVER WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW WE SEE SYNOPTIC                    
DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE FLOW THAT KEEP AT LEAST SOME POPS FURTHER TO            
THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO CLEAR CUT UPPER DISTURBANCES                   
TODAY...THE SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FOCUS TO INITIATE              
WIDELY SCT-SCT STORMS AWAY FROM THE SEA-BREEZE INFLUENCE. CURRENT               
FORECAST SHOWS CHANCE POPS FOR OUR FLORIDA ZONES UP INTO SOUTHEAST              
ALABAMA (40-50%) AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE (20-35%) ACROSS            
OUR GA/ZONES. THIS FORECAST SEEMS ON TRACK AS A BIT BETTER UPPER                
MOISTURE BEGINS TO WORK BACK INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE IN THE DAY             
LEAVING THE MOST HOSTILE PROFILE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA.                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
WAVE PERIODS AT THE BUOYS HAVE BEEN HOLDING STEADY THIS                         
MORNING...HOWEVER SHOULD BEGIN TO COME DOWN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.              
WILL CONTINUE ONGOING FORECAST OF 2 TO 4 FEET...BUT SHOW A                      
DECREASING TREND TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS FRIDAY AND BEYOND WILL                 
REMAIN LOW. MORNING THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PULLS FURTHER                     
OFFSHORE.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
AFTER YESTERDAY`S WIDESPREAD RAINS...MID LEVEL DRY AIR SURGED SWD               
PROVIDING A CLASSIC SET UP FOR IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. THE LOW             
STRATUS WILL PERSIST AT ABY UNTIL ABOUT 16Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN            
FORECAST TO PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY OUTSIDE OF                     
THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR AREAS AROUND                
PFN...TLH AND DHN WITH MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE FOR THE VLD AND ABY               
AREAS. WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE A REPEAT OF THE LOW STRATUS TONIGHT,                
EXCEPT AT ABY. OTHER TERMINALS WILL SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBY.            
AFTER 08Z.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.                                           
IT IS NICE TO SEE SOME GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS                
THIS MORNING. IN FACT...IT IS THE GFS SOLUTION THIS CYCLE THAT HAS              
COME AROUND MORE TO THE NAM SOLUTION. VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING                
CONFIRMS THAT MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS SURGING SOUTHWARD AS               
THE UPPER TROF AMPLIFIES OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES.            
THIS SURGE OF DRIER MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR WILL HELP TO SUPPRESS                   
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES.                    
MOREOVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES IN THE 700 TO             
400 MB LAYER WILL BE AROUND 2 DEGREES C WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY.            
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH THROUGHOUT TODAY            
TO LIMIT DRIER SURFACE AIR FROM REACHING OUR COUNTIES. WITH A TYPE              
8/9 SEA BREEZE REGIME TODAY (1000-700 MB FLOW NW AROUND 10                      
KNOTS)...THE SEA BREEZE FRONTS WILL BE PINNED NEAR THE COAST...BUT              
WITH THE BEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THESE AREAS...HIGHER             
POPS ARE INDICATED CLOSER TO THE COAST. WILL GO FOR SLIGHT CHANCE               
POPS FAR NORTHERN AREAS WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE                  
LOWEST. MODIFIED PARCELS IN THE NORTH (93/67...WHICH MAY BE GENEROUS            
FOR THE DEWPOINT) YIELDS ABOUT 1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE...BUT A PWAT                 
AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THIS IS EASILY 1 STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW THE                
MEAN FOR THIS REGIME. FURTHER SOUTH...A MODIFIED PARCEL OF 91/69 WAS            
USED WHICH PRODUCED AROUND 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE...BUT THE PWAT WAS               
AROUND 1.8 INCHES. THESE VALUES ARE CLOSER TO THE MEAN FOR THIS                 
REGIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER TODAY ACROSS THE                 
NORTH AS LESS CLOUD COVER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL ALLOW                  
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID 90S.                                              
FRIDAY...A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN                 
PARTS OF OUR REGION...HELPING TO SUPPRESS AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE             
PRESENCE OF THE DRY AIR WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP            
IN THE NORTH AS WELL. THE ONLY POSITIVE FOR DECENT CONVECTION WILL              
BE THE DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR CWA. THIS...ALONG WITH              
THE SEA BREEZE FRONTS WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STORMS...BUT MAINLY             
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE                
WARM...IN THE UPPER 90S OR BETTER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES             
WHERE NEAR FULL INSOLATION UNDER THE JULY SUN WILL MAKE FOR A HOT               
DAY.                                                                            
SATURDAY...MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS                 
SOUTHERLY. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD SERVE TO LIMIT THE OVERALL                
COVERAGE OF STORMS...BUT WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...POPS             
INCREASING INTO THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE...EVEN IN THE NORTHERN               
ZONES SEEMS APPROPRIATE. WILL SCALE TEMPERATURES BACK A LITTLE FROM             
THE HIGH VALUES ON FRIDAY...BUT WILL STILL BE A WARM DAY WITH MOST              
INLAND AREAS HITTING THE MID 90S.                                               
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.                                           
LARGE SCALE PATTERN TO REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE NEXT             
SEVEN DAYS. UPPER FLOW WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT EASTERN                
CONUS TROUGH FLANKED BY RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND                    
SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SFC...TROUGH WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE CWA              
WITH RIDGE AXIS OVER THE GULF SOUTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL            
KEEP A GENERAL WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST             
PERIOD. OVERALL...EXPECT NEAR CLIMO CONDITIONS THROUGH PERIOD WITH              
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION AND NEAR NORMAL                      
TEMPERATURES.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY TODAY AND             
FRIDAY WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS FILTERING INTO THE AREA.                    
HOWEVER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE            
RED FLAG CRITERIA. NO HEADLINES NEEDED.                                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  92  72  95  71  93 /  50  30  30  20  40                           
PANAMA CITY  90  74  91  77  90 /  50  30  40  20  40                           
DOTHAN       92  71  95  73  93 /  40  20  20  10  40                           
ALBANY       94  70  97  73  95 /  20  10  20  10  30                           
VALDOSTA     92  71  95  70  95 /  40  20  20  10  30                           
CROSS CITY   91  72  93  71  93 /  40  30  40  20  40                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...WOOL                                                                 
SYNOPSIS/UPDATE...MROCZKA                                                       
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GODSEY/CAMP                                               
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
1005 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2008                                                     
.SHORT TERM...UPPER TROF HAS SHIFTED SE AND IS PRESENTLY LOCATED                
OVER THE SE CORNER OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA. 12Z KJAX SOUNDING HAD            
PRECIP H2O VALUE OF 1.84 IN AND EXPECT THIS TO FURTHER DECREASE THRU            
THE AFTN AS DRY AIR DEPICTED ON H2O VAPOR LOOP ADVECTS INTO THE                 
AREA. MODIFIED SOUNDING HAS JUST UNDER 3000 J/KG CAPE WITH -7 LI AND            
500MB TEMP OF -8C. RUC80 PROGS CAPES BACK TO 2700 BY 21Z AT KJAX                
WITH PWAT DOWN TO 1.51. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH            
WIND AND SOME HAIL THREAT...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN                    
PREVIOUS FEW DAYS...MOSTLY ACROSS THE SE 1/3 OF THE AREA                        
ON RADAR...MUCH LESS CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND                     
MOST OF IT IS EITHER WELL E OR S OF THE AREA. UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE              
LOCATED OVER MO AND IA MOVING SE. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD REMAIN N OF             
THE AREA THRU THE EVENING.                                                      
AGREE THAT MOST CONVECTION WILL BE SEABREEZE FORCE TODAY WITH                   
HIGHEST POPS TO S BECAUSE OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND TO THE E BECAUSE OF            
MORE DOMINANT GULF COAST SEABREEZE. ZFP TEMPS AND CLOUDS APPEAR TO              
BE ON TRACK.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION... SOME LOW CIGS ACROSS SE GA SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT AND               
THIN THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS. WILL LIKELY ADD AT                
LEAST VCTS TO KJAX AND KCRG AND TEMPO TSTM TO KGNV.                             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...WILL ADJUST SEAS IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. MAY ALSO SCALE             
BACK 1ST PERIOD POPS TO ISOLD.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
AMG  94  70  96  71 /  20  20  20  10                                           
SSI  90  75  89  76 /  20  20  10  10                                           
JAX  91  71  93  72 /  30  20  20  10                                           
SGJ  89  72  88  73 /  40  20  20  10                                           
GNV  90  70  93  70 /  40  20  40  20                                           
OCF  89  70  92  70 /  40  20  40  20                                           
&&                                                                              
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
AM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CARROLL/KERNS                                                                   
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL                                               
956 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...AFTER PERFORMING CAREFUL ANALYSIS, IT APPEARS THERE ARE               
SEVERAL BOUNDARIES AROUND THIS MORNING FOR CONVECTION TO                        
INITIATE. IN OTHER WORDS, IT COULD EASILY FORM JUST ABOUT                       
ANYWHERE ACROSS S FLA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, THE LEFT OVER 50H                   
TROUGH AND ABOVE REMAINS JUST OFF THE SE CST OF THE PENINSULA                   
WHICH EXPLAINS THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN CURRENTLY OVR THE OPEN                    
ATLANTIC WELL OFFSHORE. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXISTS ACROSS SOUTHERN                
GEORGIA WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVING               
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING                  
INTO N FLA WHICH EXPLAINS THE CURRENT CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF                 
COAST JUST NORTH OF TPA. COULD EVEN BE A WEAK VORT MAX ASSOCIATED               
WITH THIS FEATURE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS THE MAIN MID               
LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUING TO DIG SOUTHWARD BUT BOTH THE 06Z GFS AND               
NAM RUNS SHOW THE TROUGH BEGINNING TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE COURSE                
OF THE DAY. THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING SHOWS SOME DRYING THAT HAS                     
OCCURRED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS BUT IF THE TROUGH BOUNDARY NORTH              
OF OUR REGION MOVES FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH, THEN WE COULD MOISTEN              
UP AGAIN BY AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION WOULD               
BE JUST TO GO WITH PERSISTENCE CONSIDERING THE WEAK BOUNDARIES                  
THAT REMAIN IN PLACE AND SO HAVE MENTIONED POSSIBILITY OF STRONG                
WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS THAT                         
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY ACROSS ALL OF S FLA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ALONG              
BOTH COASTS.                                                                    
30/KOB                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 745 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2008/                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING BEFORE SWINGING         
TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE EAST COAST TAF SITES.         
FOR APF TAF SITE...THE WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING BEFORE              
SWINGING TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION BY 17Z THIS AFTERNOON. THE SPEEDS              
WILL ALSO BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS TODAY AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES.                    
FOR THE WX AT THE TAF SITES TODAY...PLAN ON KEEPING THE TAF SITES               
DRY UNTIL AROUND 17Z AND THEN PUT IN VCTS ALL OF THE TAF SITES                  
FROM 17Z UNTIL 21Z FOR THE ACTIVITY ALONG BOTH SEA BREEZES.                     
BETWEEN 21Z AND 01Z PLAN ON HAVING ONLY VCSH FOR THE EAST COAST                 
TAF SITES...AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL BE PUSHING FURTHER                
INLAND...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD THE VCTS FOR APF TAF SITE DUE                
TO THE SLOWLY PUSH OF THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE.                                
THE CEILING AND VIS FOR THE TAF SITES TODAY WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR              
CONDITIONS DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE ACTIVITY. SO WHEN THE ACTIVITY              
GETS GOING WILL COVERAGE THE SITES WITH THE ADMINS.                             
AVIATION...54/BNB                                                               
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED ALONG SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING OUTFLOW OVER               
THE MAINLAND LATE YESTERDAY EVENING CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE THIS                 
MORNING...WITH SHOWERS/STORMS NOW BECOMING CONCENTRATED OVER THE                
ATLANTIC WATERS. LATEST WATER VAPOR ANIMATION ALONG WITH RUC                    
ANALYSES INDICATE THAT THE FLORIDA PENINSULA REMAINS LOCATED                    
BENEATH A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH AN AMPLIFYING                
MID-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...AND              
A WEAKER INVERTED TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS JUST                 
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE PENINSULA.                                       
GUIDANCE FROM THE NGM/NAM/GFS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOLUTIONS               
FROM THE UKMET/ECMWF IN ADVERTISING THIS STAGNANT PATTERN TO                    
PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...LIGHT                
EASTERLY FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALLOW THE ATLANTIC COAST               
SEA BREEZE TO SLOWLY MOVE INLAND LATER THIS MORNING...WITH                      
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BY LATE                   
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE              
DEVELOPMENT ALONG NUMEROUS MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES...AND LIGHT                     
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL SIDE WITH HIGHER FWC/MET POP NUMBERS                
BOTH TODAY AS WELL AS TONIGHT...TO ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING EVENING                
CONVECTION MAINLY ALONG THE EAST COAST. BY FRIDAY...THERE ARE SOME              
INDICATIONS THAT A STRONGER AND DEEPER EASTERLY FLOW REGIME MAY                 
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA...AS CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER RIDGE                
STRENGTHENS AND SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE                         
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONGER UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC. DESPITE                
THIS...AN AXIS OF LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE FLORIDA              
PENINSULA...PROVIDING A FAVORABLE THERMAL ENVIRONMENT FOR AT LEAST              
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. WILL                
PLACE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE GULF COAST TO REFLECT INCREASING --                
ALTHOUGH STILL VERY WEAK -- EASTERLY FLOW. BOUNDARY LAYER                       
EASTERLIES APPEAR TO STEADILY INCREASE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO                   
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH CORRESPONDINGLY HIGHER POPS WARRANTED FOR               
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE MAINLAND. EXPECT                 
CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO FRIDAY ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY...WITH WEAK                 
EASTERLY STEERING FLOW FOCUSING HIGHEST COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON                   
SHOWERS/STORMS OVER WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.                       
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC NOW SUGGESTS THAT                  
THIS PERSISTENT WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MAY LINGER                    
OVER THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...AND WILL                
REFLECT THIS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH NEAR CLIMO VALUES FOR                
POPS...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CLIMO ALONG THE GULF COAST.                  
CONDITIONS MAY BEGIN TO CHANGE...HOWEVER...BY THE MIDDLE OF THE                 
WEEK...AS UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA IS EVENTUALLY FORCED               
EASTWARD...ALLOWING CENTRAL ATLANTIC BRANCH OF THE SUBTROPICAL                  
UPPER RIDGE TO FINALLY BUILD OVER THE AREA. THIS...IN COMBINATION               
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW...COULD LEAD TO WARMER THAN NORMAL                          
TEMPERATURES LATE NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN.                
MARINE...                                                                       
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE FORMATION OF WATERSPOUTS               
THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND                    
BISCAYNE BAY. OTHERWISE...THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER-RELATED              
CONCERNS TO MARINERS THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH                     
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCLUDE                 
PREVAILING EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE 5-10 KNOT RANGE. THIS                 
WIND FLOW WILL MAINTAIN SEAS IN THE 1-3 FOOT RANGE ACROSS ALL OF                
THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS.                                                       
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST                     
PERIOD...WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH VALUES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM                
45-55 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES...TO 55-60 PERCENT                     
ELSEWHERE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WEST PALM BEACH  89  74  89  76 / 50 40 40 20                                   
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  76  90  78 / 50 40 40 30                                   
MIAMI            91  76  90  77 / 50 40 40 30                                   
NAPLES           90  73  90  75 / 40 30 50 30                                   
&&                                                                              
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
AM...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL                                               
745 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING BEFORE SWINGING         
TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE EAST COAST TAF SITES.         
FOR APF TAF SITE...THE WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING BEFORE              
SWINGING TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION BY 17Z THIS AFTERNOON. THE SPEEDS              
WILL ALSO BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS TODAY AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES.                    
FOR THE WX AT THE TAF SITES TODAY...PLAN ON KEEPING THE TAF SITES               
DRY UNTIL AROUND 17Z AND THEN PUT IN VCTS ALL OF THE TAF SITES                  
FROM 17Z UNTIL 21Z FOR THE ACTIVITY ALONG BOTH SEA BREEZES.                     
BETWEEN 21Z AND 01Z PLAN ON HAVING ONLY VCSH FOR THE EAST COAST                 
TAF SITES...AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL BE PUSHING FURTHER                
INLAND...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD THE VCTS FOR APF TAF SITE DUE                
TO THE SLOWLY PUSH OF THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE.                                
THE CEILING AND VIS FOR THE TAF SITES TODAY WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR              
CONDITIONS DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE ACTIVITY. SO WHEN THE ACTIVITY              
GETS GOING WILL COVERAGE THE SITES WITH THE ADMINS.                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...54/BNB                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED ALONG SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING OUTFLOW OVER               
THE MAINLAND LATE YESTERDAY EVENING CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE THIS                 
MORNING...WITH SHOWERS/STORMS NOW BECOMING CONCENTRATED OVER THE                
ATLANTIC WATERS. LATEST WATER VAPOR ANIMATION ALONG WITH RUC                    
ANALYSES INDICATE THAT THE FLORIDA PENINSULA REMAINS LOCATED                    
BENEATH A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH AN AMPLIFYING                
MID-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...AND              
A WEAKER INVERTED TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS JUST                 
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE PENINSULA.                                       
GUIDANCE FROM THE NGM/NAM/GFS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOLUTIONS               
FROM THE UKMET/ECMWF IN ADVERTISING THIS STAGNANT PATTERN TO                    
PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...LIGHT                
EASTERLY FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALLOW THE ATLANTIC COAST               
SEA BREEZE TO SLOWLY MOVE INLAND LATER THIS MORNING...WITH                      
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BY LATE                   
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE              
DEVELOPMENT ALONG NUMEROUS MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES...AND LIGHT                     
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL SIDE WITH HIGHER FWC/MET POP NUMBERS                
BOTH TODAY AS WELL AS TONIGHT...TO ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING EVENING                
CONVECTION MAINLY ALONG THE EAST COAST. BY FRIDAY...THERE ARE SOME              
INDICATIONS THAT A STRONGER AND DEEPER EASTERLY FLOW REGIME MAY                 
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA...AS CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER RIDGE                
STRENGTHENS AND SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE                         
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONGER UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC. DESPITE                
THIS...AN AXIS OF LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE FLORIDA              
PENINSULA...PROVIDING A FAVORABLE THERMAL ENVIRONMENT FOR AT LEAST              
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. WILL                
PLACE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE GULF COAST TO REFLECT INCREASING --                
ALTHOUGH STILL VERY WEAK -- EASTERLY FLOW. BOUNDARY LAYER                       
EASTERLIES APPEAR TO STEADILY INCREASE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO                   
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH CORRESPONDINGLY HIGHER POPS WARRANTED FOR               
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE MAINLAND. EXPECT                 
CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO FRIDAY ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY...WITH WEAK                 
EASTERLY STEERING FLOW FOCUSING HIGHEST COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON                   
SHOWERS/STORMS OVER WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.                       
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC NOW SUGGESTS THAT                  
THIS PERSISTENT WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MAY LINGER                    
OVER THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...AND WILL                
REFLECT THIS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH NEAR CLIMO VALUES FOR                
POPS...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CLIMO ALONG THE GULF COAST.                  
CONDITIONS MAY BEGIN TO CHANGE...HOWEVER...BY THE MIDDLE OF THE                 
WEEK...AS UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA IS EVENTUALLY FORCED               
EASTWARD...ALLOWING CENTRAL ATLANTIC BRANCH OF THE SUBTROPICAL                  
UPPER RIDGE TO FINALLY BUILD OVER THE AREA. THIS...IN COMBINATION               
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW...COULD LEAD TO WARMER THAN NORMAL                          
TEMPERATURES LATE NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN.                
MARINE...                                                                       
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE FORMATION OF WATERSPOUTS               
THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND                    
BISCAYNE BAY. OTHERWISE...THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER-RELATED              
CONCERNS TO MARINERS THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH                     
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCLUDE                 
PREVAILING EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE 5-10 KNOT RANGE. THIS                 
WIND FLOW WILL MAINTAIN SEAS IN THE 1-3 FOOT RANGE ACROSS ALL OF                
THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS.                                                       
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST                     
PERIOD...WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH VALUES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM                
45-55 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES...TO 55-60 PERCENT                     
ELSEWHERE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WEST PALM BEACH  89  74  89  76 / 50 40 40 20                                   
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  76  90  78 / 50 40 40 30                                   
MIAMI            91  76  90  77 / 50 40 40 30                                   
NAPLES           90  73  90  75 / 40 30 50 30                                   
&&                                                                              
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
AM...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LONG TERM...70/DD                                                               
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...15/JR                                                     
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
1039 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
1039 AM CDT                                                                     
WITH A SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN ADVERTISED ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE WITH SFC              
DEW POINTS RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...AND UPPER 40S IN THE                 
CHICAGOLAND AREA...TO GO ALONG WITH THE SUN ONLY BEING MINIMALLY                
FILTERED BY THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK...HAVE BUMPED UP HIGH                    
TEMPERATURES A TAD FOR THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY INTO THE LOWER 80S.                
ALSO REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR OUR FAR SOUTHWEST THIS                  
AFTERNOON WITH THE FAIRLY DRY AND CAPPED ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE.                   
INITIAL THOUGHTS WERE ALSO TO GO A BIT MORE DRY TONIGHT...BUT WILL              
TAKE A DEEPER LOOK INTO THAT WITH THIS AFTERNOONS FORECAST PACKAGE.             
HALBACH                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
335 AM CDT                                                                      
PRECIP CHANCES FROM LATER TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY ARE THE MAIN                   
FORECAST ISSUES THIS MORNING.                                                   
AN UNSEASONABLY LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS                  
EASTERN HALF OF CONUS THIS MORNING WITH EASTERN LONGWAVE TROUGH AND             
BROAD CENTRAL CONUS UPPER RIDGE BEING MAINTAINED. REGIONAL RADAR                
MOSAICS THIS MORNING INDICATING INCREASING COVERAGE TO SHOWERS AND              
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN IOWA AT NOSE OF               
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET AND FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE                
CONVERGENCE. WITH THIS LARGE AMPLITUDE PATTERN...LOW/MID LEVEL                  
MOISTURE GRADIENT REMAINS JUST OFF TO THE WEST THIS MORNING AS                  
EVIDENT IN 00Z RAOB SAMPLING FROM LAST EVENING WITH KMPX SOUNDING               
INDICATING PWATS OF AROUND 0.75 INCHES AND KOAX WITH 1.50 INCHES.               
CURRENT POSITION OF LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS APPEARS TO BE A BIT                    
FURTHER WEST THAN MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR THIS TIME                    
PERIOD THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND GIVEN AMPLITUDE OF LOW LEVEL RIDGE               
AXIS WOULD EXPECT THAT THIS MOISTURE GRADIENT OFF TO THE WEST WILL              
NOT REALLY MOVE IN WITH FULL FORCE INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS UNTIL                 
THIS EVENING. WITH NOT MUCH ADVECTIVE CHANGE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE              
PROFILE TODAY...EXPECTING SFC DEW PTS TO AGAIN BE IN THE MID 50S                
THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE                      
INVERSION SHOWING IN LAST EVENINGS ILX/DVN RAOBS...PRECIPITATION                
CHANCES LOOK TO BE MINIMAL EVEN ACROSS FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE              
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO                 
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR -TSRA ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST THIS                      
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
PROFILER NETWORK DOES SUGGEST PRESENCE OF UPSTREAM MID/UPPER LEVEL              
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WHICH WILL BE A FEATURE               
TO WATCH FOR TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK TO THE WEST IN                  
ADVANCE OF THIS SHORT WAVE TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES            
TO TRACK OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING FOR MORE IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL                 
MOISTURE ADVECTION. STILL EXPECTING CONVECTION TO INCREASE ACROSS               
SOUTHERN IOWA/NORTHERN MISSOURI THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO                     
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AND LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION FORCING...BUT            
CORFIDI VECTORS/THICKNESS PATTERN HINTING AT PROPAGATION PERHAPS                
JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THIS HAVE BACKED OFF A SHADE             
ON POPS BUT KEPT HIGHEST CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH TONIGHT.              
MAY EVEN END UP BEING MORE RAIN THAN THUNDER GIVEN RATHER LIMITED               
ELEVATED INSTABILITY/MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.                            
ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER STILL DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ON               
THE HORIZON...PERHAPS BEST CHANCE OF ANY ISOLD SEVERE WOULD BE ON               
FRIDAY AS LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS PACIFIC                    
NORTHWEST MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. FORCING WILL BE RATHER             
WEAK HOWEVER...WITH SFC TROUGH/COOL FRONT NOT APPROACHING NRN IL                
UNTIL AFTER PEAK HEATING. NONETHELESS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL                
INDICATE AROUND 1500 J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE AND SOME ENHANCEMENT              
TO SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS AN               
UPPER JET STREAK MOVES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER                
TROUGH. OTHER FOCUS AREA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WITH SLOW                
MOVING OR STATIONARY BOUNDARY LIKELY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL                      
ILLINOIS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOOKS ON                 
THE LOW SIDE FOR FRIDAY.                                                        
THE SFC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT SOMEWHERE ACROSS FAR                
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY OR JUST TO THE SOUTH. DID              
INCLUDE AN ISOLD TSRA MENTION ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA                  
SATURDAY GIVEN EXPECTED PROXIMITY OF THIS FRONT AND SOME MODERATE               
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. ANOTHER SFC HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT               
LAKES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND EXPECTING ADDITIONAL PRECIP                   
CHANCES TO BE CONFINED WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MAIN SFC            
BOUNDARY SINKING TO THE SOUTH. HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO EXTENDED            
FORECAST AT THIS TIME WITH ECMWF/GFS COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE BY                 
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ACROSS WESTERN CONUS.                                       
IN TERMS OF TEMPS...HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOW 80S ARE EXPECTED MOST                
LOCATIONS ALTHOUGH UPPER 70S STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR NORTHERN                   
COOK/LAKE COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS WHERE LAKE BREEZE HAS                  
POTENTIAL OF MAKING SOME INLAND PROGRESS TODAY. TEMPS WARM A BIT FOR            
THE END OF THE WEEK IN ADVANCE OF NORTHERN TIER UPPER TROUGH...AND              
THEN GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 80S REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH SOME               
MINOR LAKESIDE COOLING POSSIBLE ON SAT-MON.                                     
MARSILI                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
639 AM CDT                                                                      
FOR 12Z TAFS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THINKING FROM 06Z                      
FORECASTS. WIND DIRECTION WITH WEAK GRADIENT AND LAKE BREEZE REMAIN             
MAIN FOCUS FOR CHICAGO TERMINALS TODAY...WITH PRECIP/CONVECTION                 
POTENTIAL A SECONDARY FACTOR TOWARD 12Z FRIDAY.                                 
SURFACE HIGH REMAINS ACROSS NORTHEAST IL EARLY THIS MORNING WITH                
WEAK GRADIENT SUPPORTING CALM OR LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS NEXT FEW                  
HOURS. THIS RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH TODAY...RESULTING IN                
SYNOPTIC LIGHT SOUTH GRADIENT DEVELOPING. WITH SUCH WEAK GRADIENT               
ACROSS AREA...EXPECT LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY             
WITH 06Z WRF/RUC GUIDANCE CONTINUING DEPICT LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY                
MOVING THROUGH BOTH KORD/KMDW WITH WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHEAST                     
BY/BEFORE NOON. WIND LIKELY TO GRADUALLY VEER MORE SSE WITH TIME                
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.                                                           
AS FOR PRECIP TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS MISSOURI               
VALLEY HAS BEEN FOCUS FOR OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL             
JET ACROSS IA/MO. THIS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD MISSISSIPPI            
VALLEY TONIGHT...WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION AGAIN SPREADING INTO                  
EASTERN IOWA AND ILLINOIS BY 12Z FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME...MODEL                   
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONVECTION MOST LIKELY ACROSS AREAS WEST/SOUTHWEST            
OF CHI METRO BY EARLY FRIDAY. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE                   
ELEVATED CAPES OF AROUND 500 J/KG AT KRFD TOWARD MORNING...WHILE                
LIMITED TO 150 J/KG AT KORD BY 12Z. 850-300 MB THICKNESS PATTERN AND            
CORFIDI VECTORS INDICATE SOUTHEAST PROPAGATION OF CONVECTIVE                    
ELEMENTS THROUGH TONIGHT. BASED ON THIS HAVE ELECTED TO INTRODUCE A             
PROB30 MENTION FOR KRFD FOR LAST FEW HOURS OF TAF...THOUGH HAVE KEPT            
CHI AREA TERMINALS DRY WITH CONFIDENCE OF CONVECTION MOVING THAT FAR            
EAST TOO LOW FOR NOW.                                                           
RATZER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
345 AM CDT                                                                      
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FAR WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO                 
MOVE SOUTH TODAY...INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW                
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS TO BACK TO THE SOUTH BY THIS AFTERNOON...                 
THOUGH THE RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE SOUTH PORTION               
OF THE LAKE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LAKE BREEZES WHICH MAY RESULT IN              
VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL               
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY...                 
WHILE LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSES NORTHERN MANITOBA AND ONTARIO WITH A               
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT WIND DEVELOPING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN.              
A WEAK COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THIS LOW WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST                    
ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS THE LOW                
CONTINUES TOWARD JAMES BAY. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS BACK TO THE                   
NORTHWEST...THOUGH A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE               
ACROSS THE LAKE EARLY SUNDAY WITH WINDS BRIEFLY BACKING WEST OR                 
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF IT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS               
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN LAKES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.                  
RATZER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                              
630 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAFS.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. CONVECTION THIS MORNING             
WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH AND EAST OF TOP/FOE/MHK...WITH ONLY A FEW                
MID/UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH LOCALLY. CU FIELD TO              
DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...ALONG                 
MOST ROBUST MOISTURE AXIS. TONIGHT...UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN A BIT              
MORE...AND A SHORTWAVE SLIDES ON THROUGH NORTHEAST                              
KANSAS...COINCIDENT WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHEAST PART                
OF THE STATE DROOPING SOUTHWARD. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO                
BE CLOSER TO TOP/FOE AFTER 02Z...SO BEGAN TO TREND FORECAST                     
TOWARD TS AFTER 02Z...BY INSERTING A CB GROUP AT EACH SITE. MHK                 
MAY BE A BIT TOO FAR WEST FOR THE TS...AND VCTS OR NO THUNDER AT                
ALL MAY RESULT LATER ON. FUTURE FORECASTS SHOULD HAVE A BETTER                  
HANDLE ON WHERE/WHEN TO EXPECT TS.                                              
KONOP                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
08Z WATER VAPOR SHOWS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES...A                     
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATING EAST OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND A             
BROAD RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BACK WEST OVER SOUTHERN CA.                
HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS HAVE FLATTENED              
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SFC A TROUGH WAS                
FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KS STRETCHING NORTH. A MOIST AND WARM AIRMASS              
WAS FOUND EAST OF THIS TROUGH...AND ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS ONCE                
AGAIN DEVELOPED ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE.                         
FOR THIS MORNING...THE RUC AND NAM 310K ISENTROPIC SFC KEEPS THE                
BETTER MOISTURE AXIS JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.                
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST RADAR TRENDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING              
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MO. A FEW ELEVATED STORMS DEVELOPED OVER                
SOUTH CENTRAL NEB BUT HAVE SINCE FALLEN APART. SO EXPECT THE                    
MAJORITY OF THE AREA TO REMAIN DRY THIS MORNING. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT               
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING AND THEN ACROSS THE               
NORTH FOR THE AFTERNOON AS MODELS STILL SHOW A WEAK WIND SHIFT                  
SLIDING INTO NORTHERN KS. MODELS SHOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO              
BETWEEN 850 AND 800MB. THEREFORE WOULD EXPECT HIGHS TO AGAIN REACH              
THE LOWER TO MID 90S FOR MOST AREAS. COOLEST SPOT SHOULD BE                     
NORTHEAST WHERE THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A LITTLE MORE CLOUD                       
COVER...WITH THE WARMEST SPOT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.                             
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE               
HIGHER. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS            
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE              
FORECAST AREA. THINK BECAUSE OF THIS...CONVECTION THAT HAS PASSED               
JUST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THE PAST COUPLE NIGHTS WILL BE MORE                  
LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST KS. NAM AND GFS SHOW WEAK SHORTWAVES            
CLIPPING NORTHEAST KS TONIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ABUNDANT              
MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE. THEREFORE HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS            
NORTHEAST KS TONIGHT AND SPREAD CHANCE POPS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH              
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. USED PERSISTENCE FOR THE                
TEMP FORECAST AS AIRMASS APPEARS TO CHANGE LITTLE FROM DAY TO DAY.              
DO NOT EXPECT PRECIP TO OCCUR LONG ENOUGH DURING ANY GIVEN DAY TO               
APPRECIABLY HAMPER DAY TIME HEATING.                                            
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL             
VORT MAX CLIPPING NORTHEAST KS. SO MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS            
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. FORECAST WAS LEFT PRETTY MUCH IN TACT            
BEYOND SUNDAY.                                                                  
WOLTERS                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA                                          
937 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE COMING FROM MICHIGAN WILL BRING DRY AND PLEASANT                  
WEATHER INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT COMING FROM THE DAKOTAS WILL                  
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND.                    
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
JUDGING FROM RECENT SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA THE LAST OF THE                    
SHOWERS WILL HAVE EXITED THE DUBOIS PA AREA BY 10 AM. WITH THE                  
RECENT RUC MODEL RUN SHOWING THE UPPER TROUGH THAT CONTRIBUTED TO               
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THESE SHOWERS CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST. SO HAVE               
FORECASTED DRY CONDITIONS THE REST OF TODAY. EXPECT DAYTIME                     
CUMULUS CLOUDS TO BARELY REACH BROKEN COVERAGE...SO SHOULD BE                   
MAINLY SUNNY THE REST OF THE DAY WITH FORECASTED TEMPERATURES                   
CLOSE TO BLEND OF NAM AND GFS MOS.                                              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...                                    
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES                   
TO THE EAST COAST. DRY WEATHER AND SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES                  
CAN BE EXPECTED. AS WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MOVES BACK INTO                   
THE DISTRICT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT A RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS               
IS POSSIBLE.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                      
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE DISTRICT SATURDAY BRINGING A THREAT           
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AS                
THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE DISTRICT SUNDAY THE UPPER TROF BEHIND               
THE FRONT WILL KEEP A RISK OF SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE                 
BUILDING INTO THE DISTRICT FOR THE FIRST OF THE WEEK WILL BRING                 
A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH                     
WEDNESDAY.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                      
JUDGING FROM RECENT SURFACE AND SATELLITE DATA IN CONJUNCTION WITH              
RECENT NAM MODEL PROFILES...EXPECT ANY RESIDUAL MVFR STRATOCUMULUS              
CEILINGS TO GIVE WAY BY 15Z TO SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS WITH                 
BASES IN THE VFR RANGE. WITH UPPER TROUGH HAVING EXITED EAST OF                 
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...DO NOT EXPECT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THE                
CUMULUS TO SUFFICIENTLY VERTICALLY DEVELOP TO CAUSE ANY MORE                    
SHOWERS.                                                                        
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST NEAR 10 KTS BY AFTERNOON               
AND THEN DECREASE TO UNDER 5 KTS TONIGHT.                                       
AT THIS TIME NOT FORECASTING FOG DEVELOPMENT AT ANY TAF SITES FOR               
EARLY FRIDAY ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED FOG PATCHES IN                
RIVER VALLEYS THEN. SO VFR WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINANT INTO                    
FRIDAY NIGHT.                                                                   
RECENT BLEND OF SREF AND GEFS MODEL RUNS SHOW A DAKOTAS COLD FRONT              
IMPACTING THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND                      
THUNDERSTORMS AND HENCE POTENTIAL MVFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND                  
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND PREVALENT VFR SHOULD RETURN FOR MONDAY.               
&&                                                                              
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
PA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> md                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1056 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS                
THE CWFA AT THIS TIME...WITH ACTUALLY SOME FILLING IN OF LOW TO                 
MID CLOUDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS OVER MINNESOTA. THINGS ARE                   
CLEARER TO THE EAST WHERE 925-700MB WARM ADVECTION AND BETTER RH                
VALUES HAVE NOT YET ARRIVES...ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE SOME                     
INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS IN THAT AREA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. RADAR                
IMAGERY SHOWS SOME SHRA EXITING INTO FAR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AT                 
THE CURRENT TIME. THESE WERE FORCED BY THE WARM ADVECTION AND A                 
WEATHER SHORTWAVE THAT IS NOW PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA...AND WERE               
INITIALLY MORE ROBUST WHILE THEY TAPPED INTO THE ELEVATED                       
INSTABILITY THAT WAS PRESENT OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA. THE MAIN                   
FORECAST ISSUE FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING IS THE CHANCES FOR                    
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST OBSERVED DATA AND 12Z NAM AND                
LATEST RUC SUGGEST LESSER CHANCES FOR PCPN OVER THE AREA...AND                  
HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS...WHICH WERE ALREADY FAIRLY LOW...TO                     
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO              
DIURNAL HEATING...ALTHOUGH THAT IS BEING MITIGATED BY THE LOW-MID               
CLOUDS PRESENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH STRETCHES FROM THE                 
FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE THROUGH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. IT              
APPEARS CLEARING SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE PREVALENT JUST AHEAD OF               
THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH MLCAPES GETTING AOA 1500                  
J/KG...ALONG WITH 30-35KT OR SO OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. BY LATE                    
AFTERNOON...THE MLCIN IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SUFFICIENTLY FOR                  
SOME STORMS TO INITIATE NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH THE                
12Z NAM AND LOCAL LAPSWRF MODEL RUNS ARE NOT VERY AMBITIOUS IN                  
DEVELOPING MUCH. THE RUC IS A BIT MORE BULLISH...BUT IN ALL CASES               
IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING ANYTHING WILL BE OVER THE                 
WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE THE               
BEST COMBINATION OF FORCING AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. IN                 
ADDITION...A WEAK SHORTWAVE CAN BE SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY              
MOVING THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND IT IS HELPING TO GET                  
SOME WEAK CONVECTION GOING THERE AT THE CURRENT TIME. THIS FEATURE              
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL WORK INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWFA BY LATE               
AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD FURTHER HELP TO GET A FEW STORMS GOING. ANY            
STORMS WHICH MANAGE TO DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE                  
HAIL GIVEN THE DECENT MLCAPE VALUES AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER                   
SHEAR FOR SOME MULTI-CELL ORGANIZATION. WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS                 
INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY                   
EVENING...BUT CHANCES LOOK FAIRLY LIMITED EAST OF A LINE FROM                   
REDWOOD FALLS TO SAINT CLOUD. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA WILL                
HAVE A TOUGH TIME AS WELL SINCE THE SOUTH PART OF THE FRONT WILL                
BE SLOWER TO MOVE EAST...AND IT LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL RIDGING WILL               
PREDOMINATE IN THAT AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ARE PSBL OVER MOST OF THE TAF SITES MAINLY THIS                 
MORNING. CLOUDS/CEILING HEIGHTS WILL BE GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 4K                
FEET AGL EXCEPT LOWERING TO AROUND 2-3K FEET AGL IN TSRA IN THE                 
VCNTY OF THE AFORMENTIONED FRONT IN THE DISCUSSION ABOVE. WEATHER               
CONDS IMPROVING AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...BASICALLY SCATTERED CLOUDS              
AT OR ABOVE 6K FEET AGL.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 630 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2008/                                             
THE CHALLENGE WITH THE FORECAST IS CONVECTIVE CHANCES LATER TODAY               
AS WELL AS FRIDAY.                                                              
GOES WV LOOP SHOWING A SERIES OF WAVES APPROACHING UPPER                        
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AROUND A CENTRAL ONE MOVING EAST INTO SRN                    
MANITOBA. UPSTREAM MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY RESIDE                 
OVER THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH DEAMPLIFICATION IS EXPECTED TODAY.              
THIS IS NOT NECESSARILY DUE TO THE IMPINGEMENT OF THESE SHORTWAVES              
BUT THE SLIGHT RETROGRADING OF THE ERN GREAT LAKES LONG WAVE                    
TROUGH. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN ALMOST SQUISHING/WEAKENING OF THESE                
SHORTWAVES AS THEY NEAR MN THIS AFTN AND EVE. SO THIS SHOULD BE A               
MAJOR CAVEAT TO SUSTAINED SEVERE WEATHER LATER TODAY.                           
FOR THIS MORNING...CONTINUED 5K-10KFT WARM AIR ADVECTION /WAA/ WILL             
LEAD TO LIGHT SHOWERS WITH MAYBE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES.                       
CONVECTIVE CHANCES SEEM NIL FOR ERN MN AND WRN WI THROUGH AT LEAST              
THROUGH MID AFTN IF NOT THROUGHOUT THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...AS                      
CONVECTIVE INDICIES ARE WEAK AND ACTUALLY WEAKEN FURTHER AFTER                  
INITIAL WAA PUSH THIS MORNING. THEY THEN BEGIN TO CREEP UP AGAIN                
IN THE LATE AFTN. SO THROUGH MID AFTN FOR MUCH OF THE CWA THINK                 
THUNDER WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN WITH ANY SHOWERS.                           
SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING MN LATE THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS               
EVE. AHEAD OF THIS...PRIMARILY IN WRN AND CTRL MN...A FAIR AMOUNT               
OF SUN IS EXPECTED TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED                 
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS WILL HELP DESTABILIZATION. SFC TDS ARE                     
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 66 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.                 
THIS CREATES SFC BASED CAPE BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 J/KG IN A                     
TONGUE INTO WRN AND CTRL MN BY LATE AFTN. MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL                  
DIVERGENCE IS PRESENT AT THAT TIME WITH INCOMING 80-90 KT 250MB                 
JET IN THE WRN PLAINS. ASSOCIATED THICKNESS DIFLUENCE ALSO SEEN                 
ON MODEL SOLUTIONS. SO ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN AT                
LEAST WRN MN LATE THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS EVE. THESE SHOULD BE                
PULSY-TYPE STORMS...POSSIBLY WITH SOME CLUSTERING IN A FAIRLY                   
UNIDIRECTIONAL LOWER TROP PROFILE. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE                    
MARGINAL FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS. PREDICTED DCAPE VALUES ARE 600-1000               
J/KG...THOUGH FURTHER EXAMINATION OF MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWS DELTA                
THETA-E TO BE SLIGHT IN THE VERTICAL...SO WIND THREAT THOUGHT TO                
BE MARGINAL TOO. SOME THOUGHT TOO OF CONVECTION GETTING ACTIVE IN               
NEB/WRN IA ABSORBING SOME OF OUR BUOYANCY AND LOW LEVEL WINDS.                  
THIS SHOULD COME TO FRUITION LATER IN THE EVE AS NOCTURNAL LLJ                  
WILL BE FOCUSED IN IA WITH EXPECTED ONGOING CONVECTION. SO ALL IN               
ALL...POPS FAIRLY SMALL TODAY AND TONIGHT AND SEVERE WEATHER                    
POTENTIAL AND POSSIBLE AREAL COVERAGE SEEM SMALL AS WELL.                       
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WORK SE OVERNIGHT INTO FRI MORNING BEFORE                  
GETTING A KICK FRI AFTN FROM A DIVING H5 WAVE IN SASKATCHEWAN.                  
INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BUILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN SRN MN AND WRN              
WI WITH TDS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. DYNAMICS SHOULD BE MORE              
IMPRESSIVE THAN TODAY WITH A DIGGING WAVE AND AN ASSOCIATED                     
STRONGER JET. SO SVR POTENTIAL DOES EXIST IN SE MN AND MORESO IN                
WRN WI ON FRI AFTN AND VERY EARLY EVE. AFTER THAT POINT...FRONT                 
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.                                            
DESPITE THESE DAYS BEING ARE WARMEST CLIMATOLOGICALLY...WE ARE                  
NOT EXPECTING ANY MARKED HEAT. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE                 
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MOST DAYS. FRIDAY MAY SEE MID TO UPPER                    
80S...AS H8 THERMAL RIDGE GRADUALLY WORKS SE ACROSS THE AREA WITH               
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. DRY AND COOL AIR ADVECTION THEN WILL PREVAIL              
FRI NIGHT AND SAT. THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH MAINLY LOWER 80S.                 
ELEVATED MOIST ADVECTION SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST DURING             
THAT TIME. NEXT WEEK MAY BE SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE AS THIS                        
ADVECTION APPROACHES...BUT PRIMARY LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC AND TD                  
GRADIENT ALONG WITH ANY REMNANT MOISTURE FROM ONCE HURRICANE DOLLY              
LOOKS TO BE TO OUR SOUTH.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TRH/JVM/MTF                                                                     
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
300 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING THIS MORNING FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA            
INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA. LATEST RUC DATA INDICATES STRONG THETA-E                   
ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ELEVATED CONVECTION THIS MORNING                  
WEAKENS AFTER 12Z THEN REDEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN             
AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA.                                                           
LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST WITH SOME POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE            
SHORT TERM PERIOD AS AREA REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF FASTER FLOW           
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MAIN UNCERTAINTY REMAINS TIMING OF SHORT            
WAVES IN THE FLOW WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN BOTH THE MID             
AND LOWER LEVELS. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ALSO INDICATED TO LINGER                
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND HELP FOCUS ACTIVITY.                  
CLOUDS AND PRECIP EXPECTED TO LIMIT HEATING SO AGAIN HAVE TRENDED               
TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE VALUES.                                              
NO CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AT THIS TIME. 00Z MODELS AMPLIFY               
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS NEXT WEEK WITH FLOW REMAINING                
ACTIVE ACROSS THE PLAINS REGION.                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR TAF SITES KOMA/KLNK/KOFK.                                                   
MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING AS MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW              
CONTINUES TO INVADE EASTERN NEBRASKA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY               
AFFECT KOMA AND KOFK THROUGH 15Z. VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE             
DAY WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP IN THE LATE                              
AFTERNOON...LIKELY AFTER 21Z...AND COULD OCCUR ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN            
NEBRASKA.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FOBERT/DERGAN                                                                   
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
751 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST SKYCOVER MENTION TO MOSTLY CLOUDY                 
THIS MORNING AS LOW STRATUS HAS JUST ABOUT SOCKED IN THE ENTIRE                 
CWA THIS MORNING /AS OF 12Z/. ALSO RETWEAKED WX GRIDS THROUGH 15Z               
THIS MORNING TO BEEF UP THE FOG WORDING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF              
ZONES WHERE SURFACE OBS AND MORNING COOP REPORTS TRICKLING IN ARE               
INDICATING SOME AREAL COVERAGE OF DENSE FOG.                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY                                          
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE FACING THE SHORT TERM IS PCPN CHANCES AGAIN                 
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.                                                   
LATEST MSAS ANLYS SHOWS SFC BOUNDARY DRAPED NW-SE ACROSS WRN PART               
OF THE CWA...WITH ONLY TELLING DIFFERENCE IS THE L-M50 DWPTS                    
LOCATED ACROSS THE NW PART OF SD. AREAS OF LOW STRATUS/FOG IS                   
SETTING UP UNDER TROF AXIS WHERE MIXING WINDS ARE MINIMAL. HAVE                 
INSERTED SOME PATCHY FOG WORDING FOR THIS MORNING ACROSS ALL THE                
CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.                                                        
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ALL AGREE ON                 
85H/925H BOUNDARY REMAINING PROGRESSIVE ACROSS THE NORTH...WHILE                
HANGING UP ACROSS SRN SD BY 00Z. 5H WAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY                      
TRACKING ACROSS MT WILL INTERSECT THE SFC/LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES                  
DURING PEAK HEATING ACROSS THE EAST...AND THERE SHOULDN`T BE THE                
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS IN PLACE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...AND WITH               
DWPTS ALREADY IN THE MID 60S...AND DWPTS IN THE LOWER 70S IN PLACE              
ACROSS PARTS OF NERN NEB...THE MECHANISM SHOULD BE RESET FOR                    
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE                
TO SEE HOW MUCH OF A ROLE THE LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS PLAY UNDER TROF                
AXIS...AND WHETHER OR NOT THEY CAN BE MIXED OUT. LATEST RUC SHOWS               
THAT 7H THETA-E DOWNGLIDE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH 18Z FOR MUCH OF              
THE CWA...WITH WAA RETURNING TO THE WEST LATER IN THE AFTN PER THE              
06Z NAM12 SOLN. BY 00Z FRIDAY...NAM12 SHOWS AREA OF BEST LI`S                   
LOCATED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF NE-SW DRAPED SFC BOUNDARY...WITH                
LI`S TO -8...ALONG WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPES FROM 1500 TO 3000                   
J/KG. HAVE TRIED TO ORIENT POPS ALONG SFC BOUNDARY FOR LATER THIS               
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH RESPECT FOR THE OVERNIGHT                     
HOURS...MODELS AGREE ON PRESSURE RISES ON THE 305-315K                          
LAYERS...ALONG WITH SPEC HUMIDIES DECREASING ACROSS MY NW CWA.                  
THETA-E ANLYS POINTS TO DOWNGLIDE AND DRYING NOTED IN THE RH                    
FIELDS. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF POPS ACROSS THE NW FOR THE                      
OVERNIGHT HOURS ON ACCOUNT OF THIS. OVERALL...VERY DIFFICULT AND                
COMPLEX CONVECTIVE FCST SETTING UP FOR TODAY...AND WILL BE HIGHLY               
DEPENDANT UPON LOCATION OF SFC BOUNDARY AND TIMING OF 5H/7H WAVES.              
THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR FRIDAY AS THE NAM SHOWS SFC BOUNDARY                  
REMAINING STALLED ACROSS SRN SD...ALLOWING MORE CONVECTIVE                      
DEVELOPMENT TO TAKE PLACE LATER IN THE AFN. THE GFS REMAINS MORE                
PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...PUSHING IT OUT OF STATE DURING THE              
DAY FRIDAY...WHICH ALLOWS COOLER/DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO                  
SETTLE IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE NEARLY ZONAL              
FLOW SETTING UP ALOFT AND THAT FLOW REMAINS NEARLY CROSSWISE TO                 
SFC FRONTAL POSITION...HAVE OPTED WITH THE GFS SOLN AND KEPT PCPN               
OUT OF FCST FOR FRIDAY.                                                         
TEMP WISE...THINK THAT TODAY WILL BE WARMEST DAY OF THE SHORT                   
TERM...WITH DECENT SUNSHINE PROVIDED THAT LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS BURN               
OFF BY 15Z. DIDN`T GO REALLY WILD WITH HEATING AS AMPLE LOW LEVEL               
MOISTURE WILL ABSORB SOME OF THE HEATING ENERGY...BUT SHOULD PROVE              
TO BE A MUGGY DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST.                                 
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY                                   
00Z EC/GFS OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS STILL SHOWING REASONABLY SIMILAR               
UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE SOLUTIONS. OVER THIS CWA...MUCH OF THE                  
EXTENDED FORECAST IS A PERIOD OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WITH                  
STEERING FLOW PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE WNW. IN THE LOW LEVELS...HIGH              
PRESSURE IS PARKED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH                 
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA IN SERLY RETURN FLOW WHILE THE EASTERN              
HALF IS EITHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OR WINDS OUT OF THE                     
NORTHEAST. BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP OVER THE CWA                      
CONTINUES TO EXIST SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY/MONDAY                       
NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE FORM OF AN MCC MEATBALL ORIGINATING               
OVER EASTERN MONTANA/SWRN NODAK AND PROPAGATING SEWD THROUGH THIS               
CWA...AND MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT IN THE FORM OF CONVECTION GOING UP                
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SYNOPTIC SCALE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED               
TO WORK THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. NO CHANGES MADE TO                  
MAX/MIN T GRIDS AS...THEY APPEAR SPOT ON WHEN COMPARED WITH 00Z                 
LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS OF THE EC AND GFS MODELS.                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LOW LEVEL GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE ABOUNDS IN THE LOWEST COUPLE                  
THOUSAND FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE THIS MORNING. COUPLE THAT WITH                  
VACATING MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE               
AND THE RESULT IS FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE              
FORECAST AREA. BEEN MONITORING THE MOVEMENT OF A SURFACE TROF                   
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL DAKOTAS THIS MORNING. THE TROF AXIS              
WILL BE POSITIONED OVER KMBG AND CLOSE TO KPIR THIS MORNING AT                  
SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST HERE...AND SURFACE OBS ARE                      
RESPONDING WITH IFR VISBIES IN GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT. THIS IFR                 
VISBY CONDITION IN SHALLOW GROUND FOG ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH                  
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED...DIMINISHING SHORTLY                
AFTER SUNRISE.                                                                  
FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE KABR AND KATY TERMINALS...SURFACE WINDS OF              
5 TO 10 KNOTS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MVFR VISBIES AND SOME IFR CIGS                
IN LOW STRATUS THROUGH MID-MORNING. SHOULD NOT TAKE LONG FOR                    
DAYTIME INSOLATION TO MIX OUT THE LOW CLOUDS.                                   
AFTER 15Z THIS MORNING...GOOD VFR SHOULD RESUME ACROSS ALL FOUR                 
TERMINALS. LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THIS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED                     
SURFACE TROF WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING                    
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE BOUNDARY WILL BE ORIENTED ROUGHLY FROM               
KPIR TO KATY...SO EXPECT THESE TWO TERMINALS TO BEGIN CARRYING                  
SOME SORT OF CONVECTION MENTION /EITHER CB OR VCTS/ IN THE LATE                 
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TIMEFRAME.                                              
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...DORN                                                                   
SHORT TERM...HINTZ                                                              
LONG TERM...DORN                                                                
AVIATION...DORN                                                                 
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN                                                            
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO                                              
330 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER COLORADO WITH A              
STRONGLY CAPPED MID-TROP PRETTY MUCH SUPPRESSING STORM DVLPMNT ON               
THE PLAINS UNTIL ABOUT AN HOUR OR SO AGO. HOWEVER SINCE 20Z A FEW               
LOW-TOP STORMS HAVE MANAGED TO FORM ALONG A DEWPT DISCONTINUITY AXIS            
ALIGNED SW-NE ACROSS NRN BOULDER-NERN WELD COUNTIES. OTHER STORMS               
HAVE ALSO POPPED OVER PARK COUNTY AND THE SRN FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS.            
CORE REFLECTIVITIES FM THE KFTG RADAR HAVE NOT BEEN ALL THAT HIGH               
YET. HOWEVER WITH RUC BASED SFC CAPE VALUES CURRENTLY UP AROUND 1800            
J/KG IN WELD COUNTY AND UP AGAINST THE NRN FOOTHILLS...WOULD EXPECT             
TO SE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IN THESE AREAS IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF                  
HOURS. MAY ALSO SEE NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT UP ALONG THE COLORADO/                
WYOMING BORDER THIS EVENING WITH PASSAGE OF A WEAK THERMAL/                     
INSTABILITY TROF PASSING OVER THE AREA. AT THIS TIME MAIN THREAT FM             
THESE SLOW MOVING STORMS ACCORDING TO INVERTED-V FCST SOUNDINGS WILL            
BE STRONG/ DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND BRIEF MODERATE/HEAVY                    
RAINFALL. RAIN AMOUNTS LOCALLY UP A HALF INCH ARE POSSIBLE WITH                 
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP AROUND INCH. HAVE SEEN A SLIGHT                    
INCREASE IN PW VALUES IN THE PAST FEW HOURS AS THE SUBTROPICAL                  
MOISTURE PLUME BEGINS ITS SLOW NWRN SHIFT ACROSS THE STATE.                     
LATER TONIGHT...STRONG CONVECTION UP ACROSS NEBRASKA MAY SEND A FAIR            
AMT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE NERN COUNTIES TOWARDS                   
MORNING. LATEST RUC SHOWS THIS OCCURRING. NAM AND GFS ALSO SHOW PW              
VALUES/HUMIDITIES INCREASING ON FRIDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE              
PLUME ALIGNS SW-NE ACROSS THE CWFA IN THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...            
SUSPECT CONVECTION ON THE PLAINS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL ERLY/                      
MID-AFTERNOON. WHEREAS COULD SEE AN EARLY START TO STORM GROWTH IN              
MTN AND HIGH VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF I-70. SHOULD CLOUD COVER DVLP                
EARLIER THAN EXPECTED MAY NOT SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE THE 90               
DEG MARK ON THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...STRONG HEATING DURING THE MORNING/            
EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD STILL SEND THE MERCURY INTO THE LOWER 90S AT             
MOST PLAINS LOCALES. AFTER 21Z...THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY                   
RAINFALL FM SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL INCREASE...ESPLY OVER AND NEAR              
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOULD SEE SCATTERED STORM COVERAGE BY LATE              
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWFA.                                               
.LONG TERM...ONLY SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS...AND                   
MODULATION OF CONVECTION IN A WARM AND FAIRLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL            
BE HARD TO FORECAST MUCH IN ADVANCE. IN THE BIG PICTURE...UPPER                 
RIDGE OVER US DEVELOPS A WEAKNESS TO OUR SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST BY                  
MONDAY...ALLOWING SOME MOISTURE TO SEEP NORTHWARD...THEN THE RIDGE              
WILL REBUILD WHICH SHOULD SHUT OFF THE DEEP MOISTURE. LOW LEVEL                 
FEATURES RATHER BENIGN BUT WILL PROBABLY DETERMINE WHICH DAYS WILL              
BE THE MOST ACTIVE. MODELS STILL SHOWING CONVECTIVE BLOBS ALONG THE             
EAST SLOPES FRIDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY EVENING...BUT PLACEMENT IS              
NOT CONSISTENT. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE MAXIMIZED FRIDAY             
EVENING...THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME HELP FROM A WEAK FRONT ON                  
SATURDAY EVENING. THIS LOOKS TO BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS                   
WARMING AND DRYING ALOFT HOWEVER. OVERALL SOME THREAT FOR LOCALIZED             
SIGNIFICANT RAIN BUT NOT LOOKING LIKE A WIDESPREAD EVENT AS                     
SUBSTANTIAL FORCING IS ABSENT AND ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL. SUNDAY               
LOOKS LIKE A TRANSITION DAY IN A SLIGHTLY DRIER ENVIRONMENT OVER THE            
PLAINS...BUT MOISTURE MAY BE CREEPING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE              
DAY GOES ON. MONDAY LOOKING LIKE AN UP DAY AGAIN WITH POSSIBLE                  
INTERACTION OF INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THE TAIL               
END OF A NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE...OF COURSE THE TIMING OF THIS               
COULD BE OFF BY A DAY AT THAT RANGE.                                            
ANALOG PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY MAPS FROM NOAA/ESRL/PSD WERE                   
INTERESTING TODAY...GIVING PROBABILITIES OF .10 INCH OF RAINFALL                
FROM 20 TO 50 PERCENT EACH DAY SAT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN BACK TO A              
CLIMATOLOGICAL 10-20 PERCENT FROM TUESDAY ON. EACH DAY HAD A                    
BULLSEYE OF 50 PERCENT OVER DOUGLAS AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES. SO WHILE            
THE DETAILS ARE EPHEMERAL...THE ENVIRONMENT SEEMS TO JUSTIFY SOME               
INCREASE TO ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EVENING              
HOURS.                                                                          
AS FOR OUR STREAK OF 90 DEGREE READINGS...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE                  
ENVIRONMENT BEYOND THE CONVECTIVE UPS AND DOWNS. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY            
SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH SUN TO GET INTO THE 90S EVEN IF IT DOES CLOUD UP             
LATE...MONDAY AND TUESDAY COULD BE A LITTLE COOLER DUE TO THE                   
INCREASED MOISTURE.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS            
MAY PRODUCE GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS AT DENVER AREA AIRPORTS             
THRU MID-EVENING. PASSING HIGH BASED STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE A BRIEF            
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWER. CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED AFTER 03Z            
THIS EVENING. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY              
WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR T-STORMS AFTER 21Z/FRIDAY.                             
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
BAKER/GIMMESTAD                                                                 
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
400 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING AN ACTIVE NORTHERN                  
STREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN CANADA.             
FURTHER SOUTH WE FIND AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE FROM SOUTHERN                    
CALIFORNIA TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. "THE SUMMER OF               
THE EAST COAST TROUGH" CONTINUES TO HOLD ITS PATTERN WITH AMPLIFIED             
TROUGHING FOR LATE JULY COVERING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...MID                  
ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES. THE TROUGH IS ANCHORED BY A CLOSED             
LOW OVER WESTERN NY/SE ONTARIO. FURTHER UPSTREAM WE FIND ANOTHER                
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN              
PLAINS. AS THE CURRENT EAST COAST TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT FRIDAY              
INTO SATURDAY...THIS NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY IN LINE WILL AMPLIFY AND              
TAKES IT PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OUR FORECAST AREA RESIDES IN A             
MID/UPPER LEVEL NW/N FLOW PATTERN WEDGED IN BETWEEN THE TROUGHING TO            
OUR NORTHEAST AND THE RIDGING TO OUR WEST. OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS               
THIS NW FLOW DELIVERED A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER UPPER LEVEL AIRMASS                
INTO THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER THE BULK OF THIS DRIER AIR IS BEGINNING            
TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST WITH INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE                
SEEN APPROACHING FROM NORTHERN GA/AL                                            
AT THE SURFACE...RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING SURFACE RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH              
OVER THE FL PENINSULA AND EASTERN GULF AND VERY WEAK TROUGHING                  
FURTHER NORTH ACROSS GA/AL. CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON               
WITH THE MOST ORGANIZED FIELD ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES CLOSER TO THE            
BETTER MOISTURE ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED WITH SEA-BREEZE CONVERGENCE.               
THIS IS ALSO WHERE SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP.            
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.                                   
WITH THE MEAN 1000-700MB FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...THE             
SEA BREEZE WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY PUSHING RAPIDLY INLAND AND THIS                 
SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH ITS                  
CONVERGENCE SOUTH OF THE AL/GA BORDER. HOWEVER...WITH THE WEAK                  
SURFACE TROUGH PROVIDING SOME FOCUS FOR CONVERGENCE FURTHER NORTH               
WILL EXPECT AT LEAST WDLY SCT STORMS FROM SOUTHEAST AL INTO PORTIONS            
OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO BE MORE ISOLATED IN                 
NATURE EVEN FURTHER EAST CLOSEST TO THE MAIN AXIS OF DRY AIR ALOFT.             
ACTIVITY DIMINISHES OVER LAND DURING THE MIDDLE/LATE EVENING HOURS              
WITH SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING. LOW TEMPERATURE EXPECTED IN THE UPPER            
60S TO LOWER 70S INLAND AND MIDDLE 70S ALONG THE COAST. SUMMER TIME             
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP JUST                  
OFFSHORE DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AND A FEW OF THESE DEVELOPING              
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO EFFECT PORTIONS OF GULF...FRANKLIN...              
TAYLOR AND DIXIE COUNTIES TOWARD SUNRISE. PULLED A SLIGHT RISK OF               
STORMS UP INTO THESE COUNTIES INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY            
AS THESE AREAS OFTEN EXPERIENCE A BRIEF SHOWER OR STORMS UNDER THESE            
CONDITIONS.                                                                     
GENERAL UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE PATTERN REMAINS QUITE STATIC THROUGH            
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH A GENERAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR                  
NORTHEAST AND UPPER RIDGING TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST. THIS RIDGING             
WILL AT TIMES MAKE PUSHES TO THE EAST. THIS FEATURE DOES APPEAR THAT            
IT WILL BUILD FAR ENOUGH EAST TO RESULT IN SOME CONVECTIVE                      
SUPPRESSION DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN                
ZONES. HOWEVER THE RIDGING IS LIKELY NOT GOING TO BE STRONG ENOUGH              
TO PUT A SIGNIFICANT DENT TO THE SEA BREEZE CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE             
AL/GA BORDER.                                                                   
FRIDAY SHOULD START OUT PARTLY SUNNY AND GENERALLY DRY FOR MOST AREA            
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS ALONG THE                     
IMMEDIATE COAST AROUND SUNRISE. NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE              
AREA ARE SIMILAR IN PROFILE FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOWING THE PRESENCE OF            
THE MID LEVEL RIDGING WITH POOR LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 700-500MB.                  
THIS "CAP" SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HOLD CONVECTION IN CHECK ALONG AND               
NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY...ESPECIALLY FOR               
AREAS AWAY FROM THE SEA BREEZE ZONE. THESE LOCATIONS WILL NEED TO               
REACH NEAR MAX HEATING BEFORE THE SURFACE TROUGH CAN PROVIDE ENOUGH             
FOCUS. SOUTH OF I-10 THE CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE A BIT EARLIER AS THE            
SEA-BREEZE PROVIDES THE NECESSARY TRIGGER TO BREAK THE CAP BY EARLY             
AFTERNOON. POP GRIDS SHOW AROUND 40% SOUTH OF THE AL/GA BORDER                  
RANGING DOWN TO 30% AND 20% RANGE HEADING NORTH. HIGH TEMPS                     
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S INLAND AND THE UPPER 80S TO                
LOWER 90S ALONG THE COAST. HOTTEST TEMPS SHOULD BE TOWARD ALBANY AND            
TIFTON WHERE CU DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE HELD BACK LONGEST.                        
UPPER RIDGE BACKS TO THE WEST ON SATURDAY LESSENING THE CONVECTIVE              
SUPPRESSION. EXPECTING A VERY TYPICAL SUMMER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE              
LOWER 90S AND GENERALLY CHANCE AFTERNOON POPS REGION-WIDE. LATER                
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...GFS SHOWING THE APPROACH OF A DECENT              
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THE NW FLOW THAT WOULD LIKELY KEEP POPS A BIT            
HIGHER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THIS TIME THE GFS IS AN OUTLIER             
AND LEANED MORE TOWARD THE DRIER NAM AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS WHICH SHOW             
THIS SHORTWAVE STAYING FURTHER NORTH.                                           
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WED.                                                
LARGE SCALE PATTERN TO REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE NEXT             
SEVEN DAYS. UPPER FLOW WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT EASTERN                
CONUS TROUGH FLANKED BY RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND                    
SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SFC...TROUGH WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE CWA              
WITH RIDGE AXIS OVER THE GULF SOUTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL            
KEEP A GENERAL WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST             
PERIOD. OVERALL...EXPECT NEAR CLIMO CONDITIONS THROUGH PERIOD WITH              
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION AND NEAR NORMAL                      
TEMPERATURES.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
OUR COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE                      
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAK TROUGH OVER GEORGIA AND            
ALABAMA THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY...KEEPING WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT.              
LEFTOVER SWELL FROM FORMER HURRICANE DOLLY CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE               
WESTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WITH SWELL HEIGHTS                   
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE              
BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE ON FRIDAY. GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW AND LOW SEAS               
EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND OUTSIDE OF AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES              
AND MAINLY OVERNIGHT AND MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
AFTER YESTERDAY`S WIDESPREAD RAINS...MID LEVEL DRY AIR SURGED SWD               
PROVIDING A CLASSIC SET UP FOR IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. THE LOW             
STRATUS WAS LIFTING ABOVE MVFR THRESHOLDS AROUND TAF ISSUANCE TIME.             
VFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY               
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS. TS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO ISOLATED            
TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR ABY AND VLD. HOWEVER...SCATTERED                 
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR AREAS AROUND PFN...TLH AND DHN. WE DO NOT            
ANTICIPATE A REPEAT OF THE LOW STRATUS TONIGHT...EXCEPT AT PERHAPS              
ABY. THIS AND OTHER TERMINALS WILL SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBY              
AFTER 08Z.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.                        
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  72  93  72  92  72 /  20  40  20  50  20                           
PANAMA CITY  76  90  77  90  77 /  20  30  20  50  20                           
DOTHAN       71  93  73  92  72 /  20  30  20  40  30                           
ALBANY       71  95  72  93  72 /  20  30  20  40  30                           
VALDOSTA     70  93  71  92  71 /  20  30  20  40  30                           
CROSS CITY   71  92  72  91  71 /  20  40  20  50  20                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION/FIRE WX...WOOL                                                         
LONG TERM...CAMP                                                                
REST OF DISCUSSION...MROCZKA                                                    
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL                                               
150 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IS FIRING TSTMS IN VCTY                
OF THE KOPF-KMIA-KTMB TERMINALS WITH MOST ACTIVITY INLAND FROM                  
KFXE AND KFLL. WILL CARRY VCTS EXCEPT AT KOPF WHERE A TSTM WAS                  
VERY CLOSE TO THE TERMINAL AT TAF ISSUANCE. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO                  
CONTINUE DEVELOPING NEAR KPBI AND ALSO KAPF ON THE WEST COAST IN                
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS SEA BREEZE WILL HOLD CLOSER TO THOSE                     
TERMINALS. ANY TSTM WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY AND COULD PRODUCE                     
VARIABLE WINDS GUSTING OVER 25KTS EVEN ON OUTFLOW                               
BOUNDARIES...AND CAUSE SHORT MVFR REDUCTIONS TO CIGS/VSBY AND                   
PERHAPS VERY BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS BEFORE STORMS MOVE ON. ACTIVITY               
SHOULD BEGIN WINDING DOWN TOWARDS SUNSET WITH MOSTLY DRY                        
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THEREAFTER.                                                
/STRASSBERG                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 956 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2008/                         
UPDATE...AFTER PERFORMING CAREFUL ANALYSIS, IT APPEARS THERE ARE                
SEVERAL BOUNDARIES AROUND THIS MORNING FOR CONVECTION TO                        
INITIATE. IN OTHER WORDS, IT COULD EASILY FORM JUST ABOUT                       
ANYWHERE ACROSS S FLA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, THE LEFT OVER 50H                   
TROUGH AND ABOVE REMAINS JUST OFF THE SE CST OF THE PENINSULA                   
WHICH EXPLAINS THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN CURRENTLY OVR THE OPEN                    
ATLANTIC WELL OFFSHORE. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXISTS ACROSS SOUTHERN                
GEORGIA WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVING               
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING                  
INTO N FLA WHICH EXPLAINS THE CURRENT CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF                 
COAST JUST NORTH OF TPA. COULD EVEN BE A WEAK VORT MAX ASSOCIATED               
WITH THIS FEATURE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS THE MAIN MID               
LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUING TO DIG SOUTHWARD BUT BOTH THE 06Z GFS AND               
NAM RUNS SHOW THE TROUGH BEGINNING TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE COURSE                
OF THE DAY. THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING SHOWS SOME DRYING THAT HAS                     
OCCURRED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS BUT IF THE TROUGH BOUNDARY NORTH              
OF OUR REGION MOVES FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH, THEN WE COULD MOISTEN              
UP AGAIN BY AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION WOULD               
BE JUST TO GO WITH PERSISTENCE CONSIDERING THE WEAK BOUNDARIES                  
THAT REMAIN IN PLACE AND SO HAVE MENTIONED POSSIBILITY OF STRONG                
WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS THAT                         
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY ACROSS ALL OF S FLA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ALONG              
BOTH COASTS.                                                                    
30/KOB                                                                          
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 745 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2008/                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING BEFORE SWINGING         
TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE EAST COAST TAF SITES.         
FOR APF TAF SITE...THE WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING BEFORE              
SWINGING TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION BY 17Z THIS AFTERNOON. THE SPEEDS              
WILL ALSO BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS TODAY AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES.                    
FOR THE WX AT THE TAF SITES TODAY...PLAN ON KEEPING THE TAF SITES               
DRY UNTIL AROUND 17Z AND THEN PUT IN VCTS ALL OF THE TAF SITES                  
FROM 17Z UNTIL 21Z FOR THE ACTIVITY ALONG BOTH SEA BREEZES.                     
BETWEEN 21Z AND 01Z PLAN ON HAVING ONLY VCSH FOR THE EAST COAST                 
TAF SITES...AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL BE PUSHING FURTHER                
INLAND...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD THE VCTS FOR APF TAF SITE DUE                
TO THE SLOWLY PUSH OF THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE.                                
THE CEILING AND VIS FOR THE TAF SITES TODAY WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR              
CONDITIONS DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE ACTIVITY. SO WHEN THE ACTIVITY              
GETS GOING WILL COVERAGE THE SITES WITH THE ADMINS.                             
AVIATION...54/BNB                                                               
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED ALONG SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING OUTFLOW OVER               
THE MAINLAND LATE YESTERDAY EVENING CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE THIS                 
MORNING...WITH SHOWERS/STORMS NOW BECOMING CONCENTRATED OVER THE                
ATLANTIC WATERS. LATEST WATER VAPOR ANIMATION ALONG WITH RUC                    
ANALYSES INDICATE THAT THE FLORIDA PENINSULA REMAINS LOCATED                    
BENEATH A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH AN AMPLIFYING                
MID-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...AND              
A WEAKER INVERTED TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS JUST                 
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE PENINSULA.                                       
GUIDANCE FROM THE NGM/NAM/GFS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOLUTIONS               
FROM THE UKMET/ECMWF IN ADVERTISING THIS STAGNANT PATTERN TO                    
PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...LIGHT                
EASTERLY FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALLOW THE ATLANTIC COAST               
SEA BREEZE TO SLOWLY MOVE INLAND LATER THIS MORNING...WITH                      
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BY LATE                   
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE              
DEVELOPMENT ALONG NUMEROUS MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES...AND LIGHT                     
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL SIDE WITH HIGHER FWC/MET POP NUMBERS                
BOTH TODAY AS WELL AS TONIGHT...TO ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING EVENING                
CONVECTION MAINLY ALONG THE EAST COAST. BY FRIDAY...THERE ARE SOME              
INDICATIONS THAT A STRONGER AND DEEPER EASTERLY FLOW REGIME MAY                 
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA...AS CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER RIDGE                
STRENGTHENS AND SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE                         
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONGER UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC. DESPITE                
THIS...AN AXIS OF LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE FLORIDA              
PENINSULA...PROVIDING A FAVORABLE THERMAL ENVIRONMENT FOR AT LEAST              
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. WILL                
PLACE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE GULF COAST TO REFLECT INCREASING --                
ALTHOUGH STILL VERY WEAK -- EASTERLY FLOW. BOUNDARY LAYER                       
EASTERLIES APPEAR TO STEADILY INCREASE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO                   
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH CORRESPONDINGLY HIGHER POPS WARRANTED FOR               
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE MAINLAND. EXPECT                 
CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO FRIDAY ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY...WITH WEAK                 
EASTERLY STEERING FLOW FOCUSING HIGHEST COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON                   
SHOWERS/STORMS OVER WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.                       
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC NOW SUGGESTS THAT                  
THIS PERSISTENT WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MAY LINGER                    
OVER THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...AND WILL                
REFLECT THIS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH NEAR CLIMO VALUES FOR                
POPS...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CLIMO ALONG THE GULF COAST.                  
CONDITIONS MAY BEGIN TO CHANGE...HOWEVER...BY THE MIDDLE OF THE                 
WEEK...AS UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA IS EVENTUALLY FORCED               
EASTWARD...ALLOWING CENTRAL ATLANTIC BRANCH OF THE SUBTROPICAL                  
UPPER RIDGE TO FINALLY BUILD OVER THE AREA. THIS...IN COMBINATION               
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW...COULD LEAD TO WARMER THAN NORMAL                          
TEMPERATURES LATE NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN.                
MARINE...                                                                       
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE FORMATION OF WATERSPOUTS               
THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND                    
BISCAYNE BAY. OTHERWISE...THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER-RELATED              
CONCERNS TO MARINERS THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH                     
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCLUDE                 
PREVAILING EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE 5-10 KNOT RANGE. THIS                 
WIND FLOW WILL MAINTAIN SEAS IN THE 1-3 FOOT RANGE ACROSS ALL OF                
THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS.                                                       
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST                     
PERIOD...WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH VALUES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM                
45-55 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES...TO 55-60 PERCENT                     
ELSEWHERE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WEST PALM BEACH  74  89  76  89 / 40 40 20 40                                   
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  90  78  90 / 40 40 30 40                                   
MIAMI            76  90  77  90 / 40 40 30 40                                   
NAPLES           73  90  75  90 / 30 50 30 50                                   
&&                                                                              
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
AM...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LONG TERM...30/KOB                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...54/BNB                                                    
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
140 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2008                                                      
UPDATED FOR 18Z TAF DISCUSSION                                                  
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW HI AMPLITUDE TROF             
CENTERED OVER SE ONTARIO...WITH SHARP UPR RDG FM MN INTO NW ONTARIO             
BTWN THE TROF AND FALLING HGTS OVER THE NRN PLAINS/SCNTRL CAN                   
ASSOCIATED WITH A PAIR OF STRONG SHRTWS RIDING ENEWD OUT OF A MEAN              
TROF IN THE PAC NW/SW CAN. 00Z GRB RAOB DEPICTS A VERY DRY...STABLE             
AIRMASS (KINX 8...PWAT 0.74 INCH) DOMINATING THE UPR GRT LKS OVER               
SFC HI PRES CENTERED ACRS LK SUP AT 03Z. THERE ARE SOME MID CLDS                
MOVING INTO THE ERN CWA ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV ROTATING ARND DEEP               
TROF TO THE E. THE CNTRL CWA IS CLR...BUT THERE ARE SOME HI CLDS TO             
THE W PUSHING EWD THRU THE UPR RDG AXIS AND OVER VERY DRY...STABLE              
AIR ALSO SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB (KINX -13...PWAT 0.55 INCH                   
THERE). LEADING EDGE OF THIS CI IS TENDING TO FADE AS IT PUSHES EWD             
INTO THE LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVER UPR MI TO THE W OF TROF TO THE            
E. A VERY SHAPR GRADIENT IN H85 DWPT IS APRNT FM MN INTO THE NRN                
PLAINS. WHILE 00Z H85 DWPT AT INL IS ONLY 5C...THE VALUE IS 17C AT              
BIS IN RETURN SW FLW BTWN RDG OVER THE GRT LKS AND TROFFING IN THE              
PAC NW. THE INTERACTION BTWN THE RESULTING INSTABILITY SHOWN ON THE             
00Z BIS SDNG AND LEAD SHRTWV APRCHG LK WINNIPEG HAS RESULTED IN SOME            
CNVCTN AS FAR E AS THE MN/ND BORDER. HOWEVER...RATHER DRY NATURE OF             
THE MID LVLS (00Z H5 DWPT DEPRESSION 28C AT BIS) APPEARS TO BE                  
LIMITING COVG OF SHRA/TSRA IN THAT AREA.                                        
MAIN FCST CONCERN TDAY THRU TMRW WL BE TIMING BREAKDOWN OF RDG/DRY              
AIR NOW IN PLACE AND THEN COVG/STRENGTH OF CNVCTN THAT CAN SPREAD               
INTO THE UPR GRT LKS ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWVS TO THE W.                          
FOR TDAY...THE DAY WL START ON THE QUIET SIDE WITH RDG STILL IN                 
CONTROL. THE LLVL FLOW WL GRDLY SHIFT TO THE SW ONCE THE SFC-H85 RDG            
AXIS SHIFTS TO THE E. 00Z NAM/GFS SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 305K              
SFC (ARND H75) RESULTING IN INCRSG RH AT THAT LVL OVER THE W IN THE             
AFTN. 00Z NAM/RUC13 ALSO APPEAR TO GENERATE SOME ISOLD CNVCTN OVER              
THE INTERIOR W HALF OF THE FA IN THE AFTN. BUT SINCE THE HIER H85               
DWPTS ARE TO THE W AND NOT THE SW (23Z TAMDAR SDNG FM MSP SHOWED H85            
DWPT ONLY 6.5C THERE IN ABSENCE OF 00Z MPX RAOB)...PREFER THE DRIER             
00Z GFS/00Z LOCAL WRF-ARW RUN AND SISTER MODEL RUN WITH KF                      
CONVECTIVE SCHEME THAT GENERATES SCT CNVCTN ONLY OVER WRN LK SUP                
CLOSER TO THE DEEPER LARGE SCALE H85-3 QVECTOR CNVGC/DPVA ASSOCIATED            
WITH SHRTWV NOW NEAR LK WINNIPEG THAT IS RIDING INTO THE UPR RDG                
OVER ONTARIO. HAVE THUS REMOVED POPS OVER THE LAND FA EXCEPT FOR                
SOME SCHC VALUES OVER THE FAR W AFT 18Z. ELEVATED MSTR (MID CLD)                
RETURN/ WEAK DESTABILIZATION SHOWN ON FCST SDNGS WARRANTS EXCLUSION             
OF TS EXCEPT OVER FAR WRN LK SUP. GOING MAX TEMPS FCST NEEDED LTL               
ADJUSTMENT.                                                                     
SECOND SHRTWV UPSTREAM THAT WAS MOVING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES IS                  
PROGGED TO REACH NEAR LK WINNIPEG BY 12Z FRI...FURTHER WEAKENING THE            
UPR RDG IN PLACE OVER THE GRT LKS AS ITS ACCOMPANYING SFC COLD FNT              
APRCHS THE WRN LK SUP SHORE BY 12Z. WITH THE LLVL FLOW FCST TO VEER             
MORE W OVERNGT...LOOKS LIKE A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR THE HIER DWPTS             
TO THE W TO SPREAD INTO THE FA. IN FACT...00Z GFS/NAM SHOW SOME                 
SHARPER ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTENING ON THE 300K SFC SPRDG W-E DURING             
THE NGT AND SUPPORTING CHC POPS. WL GO WITH THE HIER POPS (40) ACRS             
THE NRN TIER CLOSER TO SHARPER H85-7 FGEN FCST BY NAM/GFS. ADJUSTED             
POPS CLOSE TO SHARPER ISENTROPIC LIFT...RESULTING IN REDUCED POPS               
OVER THE W WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING DRIER AIR INFLUX IN THE MID LVLS/              
CAPPING. DID INCRS POPS AGAIN LATE OVER WRN LK SUP WITH APRCH OF                
COLD FNT AND WHERE 12Z ECMWF PERSISTS IN SHOWING SHARPER DPVA AHD OF            
INCOMING SHRTWV. MSTR INFLUX/CLDS GUARANTEE A MUCH WARMER OVERNGT               
THAN EARLY THIS MRNG.                                                           
ON FRI...00Z GFS HAS TRENDED A BIT TOWARD THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWING                 
SHARPER HGT FALLS WITH A SHRTWV THAT DIGS A BIT MORE AND EXHIBITS A             
BIT MORE DIFFLUENT UPR FLOW IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A MORE POTENT            
LOOKING UPR JET. BUT WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWED LLVL DRY ADVCTN                 
OVERSPREADING THE FA EVEN AHD OF THE COLD FROPA...THE 00Z GFS SLOWS             
DOWN THE BNDRY AND ALLOWS FOR ADDITIONAL MSTR ADVCTN/MUCH HIER QPF              
AS THE DYNAMICS INTERACT WITH THE GREATER MSTR FLUX. THE 00Z UKMET              
APPEARS TO TREND IN THE DIRECTION OF THE GFS...BUT IS NOT AS EXTREME            
EVEN THOUGH ITS FCST 90KT H3 JET MAX IN SRN MN BY 00Z SAT LOOKS LIKE            
THE STRONGER 12Z ECMWF. SINCE THE 00Z GFS IS SUCH A DRASTIC CHANGE              
FM PREVIOUS RUNS...WL TEND MORE TOWARD THE NAM/CNDN/UKMET/LOCAL                 
WRF-ARW WITH KF CONVECTIVE SCHEME SCENARIO...WHICH SUPPORTS THE                 
GOING FCST HIER AFTN POPS OVER THE SCNTRL AND E WHERE LATER ARRIVAL             
OF COLD FNT WL BE IN BETTER SYNC WITH DAYTIME HTG/PSBL LK BREEZE                
INTERACTION. DESPITE THE POTENTIAL DESTABILIZATION WITH DRYING                  
ALF... WEAK LLVL CNVGC AND THE DRY ADVCTN WL LIMIT POPS. NEW SPC                
DAY2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS CWA JUST N OF SLGT TSRA RISK AREA... BUT            
INCRSG UNIDIRECTIONAL MID LVL WINDS/0-6KM BULK SHEAR APRCHG 40 KT/              
MODIFIED NAM FCST SDNG FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S AND DWPTS ARND              
63 (VS EXPLICIT MODEL FCST TO 68) SBCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1100 J/KG/MID             
LVL DRYING...SUG A POTENTIAL FOR SVR STORMS.                                    
LINGERING EVNG CNVCTN ON FRI OVER THE SCNTRL AND E WL DIMINISH WITH             
COLD FROPA...INFLUX OF LLVL DRY AIR...LOSS OF DIURNAL HTG AND                   
DEPARTURE OF LEFT EXIT DYNAMICS. BUT WITH TREND TOWARD MORE DIGGING             
OF SHRTWV/LOWER HGTS...BROUGHT BACKWASH MSTR POPS OVER NRN LK SUP A             
BIT FARTHER S TO TICKLE THE NRN CWA FRI NGT. BUT WITH BULK OF DEEP              
MSTR PROGGED TO REMAIN IN ONTARIO CLOSER TO DEEP UPR TROF FOR MID               
SUMMER...NOTHING MORE THAN SCHC POPS WARRANTED. GFS SEEMS TO BE THE             
OUTLIER IN MAINTAINING HIER BACKWASH MSTR/RH OVER LK SUP ON SAT...              
BUT WITH TREND TOWARD DEEPER TROF IN SE CAN...HESITANT TO DISCOUNT              
ITS FCST SCENARIO. WITH THAT TREND TOWARD LOWER HGTS IN MIND...                 
TENDED TOWARD THE SOMEWHAT COOLER GFS MOS TEMPS FOR FRI NGT/SAT.                
COORDINATED WITH APX/GRB/DLH.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN U.P. AHEAD OF THE                    
CONVECTION THAT IS IN THE ARROWHEAD REGION OF MN. THE CONVECTION IS             
ASSOCIATED WITH AN INITIAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE MAIN            
FRONTAL TROUGH. THE MAIN FRONTAL TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE            
REGION UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY             
REACH CMX BEFORE 06Z TONIGHT...BUT KEPT -SHRA OUT UNTIL AFTER 06Z               
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SINCE THE INTIAL                
ATMOSPHERE IS VERY DRY. WENT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AT CMX BEHIND THE             
FRONTAL TROUGH. MAIN FORCING FOR PCPN WILL BE TO THE NORTH...SO KEPT            
PROB30 FOR PCPN AND VFR AT SAW THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
WINDS SHOULD BE AT OR LESS THAN 20 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL            
REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH TODAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS                
SOUTHEASTWARD. THE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST AS THE COLD FRONT                
SLIDES ACROSS THE LAKE ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN WHEN THE                
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM RETURNS...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND SHIFT SOUTH              
AGAIN ON MONDAY.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...KC                                                                 
AVIATION...MRC                                                                  
MARINE...DLG                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
313 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH NW. A                   
STRONG LLJ THIS MORNING ALLOWED FOR DEW PTS IN THE 60S TO EVEN SOME             
LOW 70S TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE FA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BY                    
00Z...THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO BE                 
LOCATED ALONG THE KINL TO KBRD CORRIDOR...REACHING THE KHIB TO                  
KDLH AND KHYR AFTER 06Z.                                                        
THE LATEST RUC AND SPC MESO ANALYSIS SUGGEST THERE IS SUFFICIENT                
CAPE...SHEAR...AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE CF TO SUPPORT                          
CONVECTION...WITH ISOLD STORMS POSSIBLY REACHING SVR LEVELS.                    
CURRENT MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS THAT -TSRA HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG               
THE FRONT. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN THE POSITION/SPEED OF THE               
FRONT DURING THE EVENING TIME FRAME...AS WELL AS HOW ORGANIZED ANY              
CONVECTION CAN BECOME. KEPT THE LOW CHC POPS WITH SCT WORDING THIS              
EVENING.                                                                        
BY 12Z...THE CF IS FCST TO BE EXITING THE FA AND MOVING INTO UPR                
MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...GFS/NAM IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT WAVE WILL            
SWEEP SE FROM CANADA OVER NRN MN FRIDAY MORNING...KEEPING THE CHC               
FOR SCT -TSRA FOR THE FA.  THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR THESE SCT/ISOLD              
STORMS WILL BE THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AS MUCH DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED              
WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST IN TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES               
REGION BY LATE FRIDAY.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE WIDESPREAD FROM KINL TO KHIB AND            
KBRD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR KDLH AND KHYR.             
SCATTERED TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR AND                   
POSSIBLY EVEN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE STORMS.             
TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNSETTLED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY              
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL SLIDE                    
EASTWARD THROUGH THE CWA...AND WILL HELP TO CAUSE THE SPOTTY                    
THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN IN SPOTS THIS MORNING              
AND SPOTTY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...SOME FOG MAY              
DEVELOP. IFR CONDITIONS AND LOWER MAY BE FOUND IN SPOTS. CONDITIONS             
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE ON FRIDAY MORNING AS DRIER WESTERLY WINDS               
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.                                        
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  60  80  57  81 /  30  30  10  10                                           
INL  58  78  49  77 /  30  30  10  10                                           
BRD  63  82  54  80 /  30  20  10  10                                           
HYR  62  81  54  79 /  30  40  10  10                                           
ASX  62  81  54  78 /  30  40  10  10                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
GRANING/DAP                                                                     
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1213 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2008                                                     
.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
EXTENSIVE MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA               
AT THIS TIME IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME 925-700MB WARM ADVECTION AND              
ASSOCIATED HIGHER RH VALUES. THIS WILL SLIDE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH                
THE DAY...AND FILTERED SUNSHINE AND RISING TEMPERATURES WILL TRY                
TO BUST SOME HOLES IN THE CLOUD DECK AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD.                     
HOWEVER...WILL GENERALLY HAVE SOME 2-3K CEILINGS FOR ALL BUT KEAU               
FOR A GOOD PART OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CEILINGS                 
OVER THE WEST WHERE CURRENTLY OBSERVED. THE WESTERN SITES WILL SEE              
THIS MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD DECK BREAK UP FIRST AS THE COLD FRONT                 
TRUDGES INTO THE AREA. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH SOME                  
FORCING FROM AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...WILL TRY TO              
KICK OF SOME AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA OVER THE WEST AND NORTHWEST PART               
OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY KAXN                
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REALLY SEE ANYTHING DURING THE DIURNAL                     
HEATING CYCLE...AND EVEN THERE PROBABILITIES SEEM SUFFICIENTLY LOW              
TO JUST MENTION A CB ALONG WITH SHRA AT THIS POINT. FARTHER SOUTH               
AND EAST...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT INSTABILITY WILL PHASE WITH THE              
FORCING FOR ANYTHING TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY                     
EVENING...SO LEFT PCPN OUT OF THE TAFS. AS THE MORE EXTENSIVE                   
CLOUD DECK SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT...SOME CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES              
COULD COMBINE WITH THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE                
FRONT TO PRODUCE SOME MVFR FOG ACROSS THE AREA...SO MENTIONED THIS              
ALONG WITH SOME CHANCE FOR LATE NIGHT SHRA AS THE FRONT WORKS                   
TOWARD THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA. IT IS TOUGH TO SAY AT THIS              
POINT HOW MUCH SHRA THERE WILL BE SINCE THINGS WILL BE STABLE TO                
SURFACE BASED PARCELS AND THERE ISN/T MUCH OF A LOW LEVEL JET TO                
FORCE ANY ELEVATED CONVECTION. SO...AM GENERALLY UNDERWHELMED AT                
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE PERIOD.                 
WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER OVERALL AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE              
AREA.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 1056 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2008/                                            
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS                
THE CWFA AT THIS TIME...WITH ACTUALLY SOME FILLING IN OF LOW TO                 
MID CLOUDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS OVER MINNESOTA. THINGS ARE                   
CLEARER TO THE EAST WHERE 925-700MB WARM ADVECTION AND BETTER RH                
VALUES HAVE NOT YET ARRIVES...ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE SOME                     
INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS IN THAT AREA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. RADAR                
IMAGERY SHOWS SOME SHRA EXITING INTO FAR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AT                 
THE CURRENT TIME. THESE WERE FORCED BY THE WARM ADVECTION AND A                 
WEATHER SHORTWAVE THAT IS NOW PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA...AND WERE               
INITIALLY MORE ROBUST WHILE THEY TAPPED INTO THE ELEVATED                       
INSTABILITY THAT WAS PRESENT OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA. THE MAIN                   
FORECAST ISSUE FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING IS THE CHANCES FOR                    
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST OBSERVED DATA AND 12Z NAM AND                
LATEST RUC SUGGEST LESSER CHANCES FOR PCPN OVER THE AREA...AND                  
HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS...WHICH WERE ALREADY FAIRLY LOW...TO                     
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO              
DIURNAL HEATING...ALTHOUGH THAT IS BEING MITIGATED BY THE LOW-MID               
CLOUDS PRESENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH STRETCHES FROM THE                 
FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE THROUGH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. IT              
APPEARS CLEARING SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE PREVALENT JUST AHEAD OF               
THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH MLCAPES GETTING AOA 1500                  
J/KG...ALONG WITH 30-35KT OR SO OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. BY LATE                    
AFTERNOON...THE MLCIN IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SUFFICIENTLY FOR                  
SOME STORMS TO INITIATE NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH THE                
12Z NAM AND LOCAL LAPSWRF MODEL RUNS ARE NOT VERY AMBITIOUS IN                  
DEVELOPING MUCH. THE RUC IS A BIT MORE BULLISH...BUT IN ALL CASES               
IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING ANYTHING WILL BE OVER THE                 
WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE THE               
BEST COMBINATION OF FORCING AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. IN                 
ADDITION...A WEAK SHORTWAVE CAN BE SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY              
MOVING THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND IT IS HELPING TO GET                  
SOME WEAK CONVECTION GOING THERE AT THE CURRENT TIME. THIS FEATURE              
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL WORK INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWFA BY LATE               
AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD FURTHER HELP TO GET A FEW STORMS GOING. ANY            
STORMS WHICH MANAGE TO DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE                  
HAIL GIVEN THE DECENT MLCAPE VALUES AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER                   
SHEAR FOR SOME MULTI-CELL ORGANIZATION. WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS                 
INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY                   
EVENING...BUT CHANCES LOOK FAIRLY LIMITED EAST OF A LINE FROM                   
REDWOOD FALLS TO SAINT CLOUD. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA WILL                
HAVE A TOUGH TIME AS WELL SINCE THE SOUTH PART OF THE FRONT WILL                
BE SLOWER TO MOVE EAST...AND IT LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL RIDGING WILL               
PREDOMINATE IN THAT AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.                                 
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TRH                                                                             
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
340 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT                                    
SVR WATCH 746 JUST ISSUED RECENTLY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN SOUTH               
DAKOTA...INCLUDING STANLEY...JONES AND LYMAN COUNTIES. LAPS DATA                
CURRENTLY SHOWS 2500-3000 J/KG CAPE WITH NO CAP IN PLACE. RUC                   
ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONFIRM A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER                
SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AT THIS TIME WITH CONVECTION BEGINNING                
ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ALSO SEEING CONVECTION                    
BEGINNING ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS. NOT MUCH OF A LOW LEVEL FOCUS                 
FOR DEVELOPMENT BUT PLENTY OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND PRESENCE OF              
UPPER LEVEL WAVE SHOULD MAINTAIN ISO TO WIDELY SCATTERED                        
CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING HOURS. LATER TONIGHT MODELS INDICATING              
SOME OF THE ACTIVITY IN MONTANA AND NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA TO                   
SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE BEST INSTABILITY                
RESIDES. INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA FOR                
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE NORTHEASTERN CWA WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME                
HAVING ANY PRECIP OVERNIGHT AND WILL LEAVE LOW CHANCE POPS IN THIS              
AREA. ON FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE DAKOTAS                  
WITH LOWERING DEWPOINTS AND INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS. WILL MORE               
THAN LIKELY SEE WINDS IN THE BREEZY CATEGORY ACROSS THE EASTERN                 
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE AREA               
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TAKING SHAPE                 
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS/NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS                 
EAST BY SATURDAY EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND                
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.                       
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY                                            
FAIRLY ACTIVE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH FOUR DIFFERENT              
SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THE GFS STARTS THE PERIOD                 
WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH A                    
SHORT WAVE DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WAVE SLIDES               
ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY. THE NAM12 ALSO SHOWS THE                 
NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...HOWEVER THE SHORT                  
WAVE PASSES OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST...LEAVING THE CWA DRY. HAVE MADE               
MINOR CHANGES TO THE WX/POP GRIDS FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER WAVE RIDES                
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON SUNDAY NIGHT...AND LOOKS TO CLIP OUR                   
EASTERN COUNTIES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES SLIGHTLY ZONAL BEHIND               
THE LAST SHORT WAVE. A WEAK MID LEVEL TROF AXIS PUSHES THROUGH ON               
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES IN               
THE EXTENDED ARE A BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST/HPC GUIDANCE/12Z MEX              
GUIDANCE.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
KATY AND KPIR MAY SEE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY                   
EVENING...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO HAVE VCTS MENTIONED KPIR                
AND JUST CB IN KATY. AN UPPER LEVEL OVER EASTERN MONTANA WILL                   
BRING VCTS THIS EVENING. RATHER DIFFICULT TO TIME THUNDERSTORM                  
ACTIVITY SO HAVE MENTIONED VCTS...BEGINNING AT KMBG BY 04Z.                     
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL END BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH VFR                       
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON WITH THE                  
THUNDERSTORMS END...SOME TAF SITES MAY SEE BR DURING THE MORNING                
HOURS.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...TMT                                                                
LONG TERM...SD                                                                  
AVIATION...SD                                                                   
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN                                                            
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
1147 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...REST OF TODAY                                                         
RATHER DIFFICULT FORECAST TODAY CONCERNING HIGH TEMPS AND PRECIP                
POTENTIAL. STRATUS DECK HANGING IN TOUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA                 
BUT BREAKS/EROSION HAS BEEN NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE OVER THE                 
PAST HOUR OR TWO. NAM40 925 RH FIELDS INDICATE DRYING IN THIS                   
LAYER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 15Z GFS LAMP                
GUIDANCE INDICATES BKN CONDITIONS HANGING ON INTO THE AFTERNOON                 
FOR THE EASTERN CWA...WHICH IS A BIT LONGER THAN THE 13Z DATA                   
SHOWED. HIGH TEMPS HAVE ALSO DROPPED A FEW DEGREES IN THE 15Z LAMP              
GUIDANCE. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS JUST A COUPLE DEGREES BUT STILL                    
BELIEVE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUN THIS AFTERNOON TO ALLOW TEMPS TO               
REBOUND. FURTHER MODIFICATIONS MAY BE NEEDED TO TEMPS IN A COUPLE               
HOURS BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS. 850 MB TEMPS ALSO INCREASE A BIT               
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALTHOUGH MIXING IS MINIMAL.                          
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SEEMS LIMITED ALSO AS THE AREA WITH THE                  
MOST MODEL PROGGED INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON IS ALSO THE SAME                  
AREA WHERE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO HANG ON THE                               
LONGEST...THEREFORE THIS INSTABILITY MAY NOT EVEN BE REALIZED.                  
WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON.                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY                                          
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE FACING THE SHORT TERM IS PCPN CHANCES AGAIN                 
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.                                                   
LATEST MSAS ANLYS SHOWS SFC BOUNDARY DRAPED NW-SE ACROSS WRN PART               
OF THE CWA...WITH ONLY TELLING DIFFERENCE IS THE L-M50 DWPTS                    
LOCATED ACROSS THE NW PART OF SD. AREAS OF LOW STRATUS/FOG IS                   
SETTING UP UNDER TROF AXIS WHERE MIXING WINDS ARE MINIMAL. HAVE                 
INSERTED SOME PATCHY FOG WORDING FOR THIS MORNING ACROSS ALL THE                
CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.                                                        
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ALL AGREE ON                 
85H/925H BOUNDARY REMAINING PROGRESSIVE ACROSS THE NORTH...WHILE                
HANGING UP ACROSS SRN SD BY 00Z. 5H WAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY                      
TRACKING ACROSS MT WILL INTERSECT THE SFC/LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES                  
DURING PEAK HEATING ACROSS THE EAST...AND THERE SHOULDN`T BE THE                
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS IN PLACE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...AND WITH               
DWPTS ALREADY IN THE MID 60S...AND DWPTS IN THE LOWER 70S IN PLACE              
ACROSS PARTS OF NERN NEB...THE MECHANISM SHOULD BE RESET FOR                    
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE                
TO SEE HOW MUCH OF A ROLE THE LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS PLAY UNDER TROF                
AXIS...AND WHETHER OR NOT THEY CAN BE MIXED OUT. LATEST RUC SHOWS               
THAT 7H THETA-E DOWNGLIDE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH 18Z FOR MUCH OF              
THE CWA...WITH WAA RETURNING TO THE WEST LATER IN THE AFTN PER THE              
06Z NAM12 SOLN. BY 00Z FRIDAY...NAM12 SHOWS AREA OF BEST LI`S                   
LOCATED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF NE-SW DRAPED SFC BOUNDARY...WITH                
LI`S TO -8...ALONG WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPES FROM 1500 TO 3000                   
J/KG. HAVE TRIED TO ORIENT POPS ALONG SFC BOUNDARY FOR LATER THIS               
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH RESPECT FOR THE OVERNIGHT                     
HOURS...MODELS AGREE ON PRESSURE RISES ON THE 305-315K                          
LAYERS...ALONG WITH SPEC HUMIDIES DECREASING ACROSS MY NW CWA.                  
THETA-E ANLYS POINTS TO DOWNGLIDE AND DRYING NOTED IN THE RH                    
FIELDS. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF POPS ACROSS THE NW FOR THE                      
OVERNIGHT HOURS ON ACCOUNT OF THIS. OVERALL...VERY DIFFICULT AND                
COMPLEX CONVECTIVE FCST SETTING UP FOR TODAY...AND WILL BE HIGHLY               
DEPENDANT UPON LOCATION OF SFC BOUNDARY AND TIMING OF 5H/7H WAVES.              
THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR FRIDAY AS THE NAM SHOWS SFC BOUNDARY                  
REMAINING STALLED ACROSS SRN SD...ALLOWING MORE CONVECTIVE                      
DEVELOPMENT TO TAKE PLACE LATER IN THE AFN. THE GFS REMAINS MORE                
PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...PUSHING IT OUT OF STATE DURING THE              
DAY FRIDAY...WHICH ALLOWS COOLER/DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO                  
SETTLE IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE NEARLY ZONAL              
FLOW SETTING UP ALOFT AND THAT FLOW REMAINS NEARLY CROSSWISE TO                 
SFC FRONTAL POSITION...HAVE OPTED WITH THE GFS SOLN AND KEPT PCPN               
OUT OF FCST FOR FRIDAY.                                                         
TEMP WISE...THINK THAT TODAY WILL BE WARMEST DAY OF THE SHORT                   
TERM...WITH DECENT SUNSHINE PROVIDED THAT LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS BURN               
OFF BY 15Z. DIDN`T GO REALLY WILD WITH HEATING AS AMPLE LOW LEVEL               
MOISTURE WILL ABSORB SOME OF THE HEATING ENERGY...BUT SHOULD PROVE              
TO BE A MUGGY DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST.                                 
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY                                   
00Z EC/GFS OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS STILL SHOWING REASONABLY SIMILAR               
UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE SOLUTIONS. OVER THIS CWA...MUCH OF THE                  
EXTENDED FORECAST IS A PERIOD OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WITH                  
STEERING FLOW PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE WNW. IN THE LOW LEVELS...HIGH              
PRESSURE IS PARKED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH                 
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA IN SERLY RETURN FLOW WHILE THE EASTERN              
HALF IS EITHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OR WINDS OUT OF THE                     
NORTHEAST. BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP OVER THE CWA                      
CONTINUES TO EXIST SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY/MONDAY                       
NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE FORM OF AN MCC MEATBALL ORIGINATING               
OVER EASTERN MONTANA/SWRN NODAK AND PROPAGATING SEWD THROUGH THIS               
CWA...AND MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT IN THE FORM OF CONVECTION GOING UP                
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SYNOPTIC SCALE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED               
TO WORK THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. NO CHANGES MADE TO                  
MAX/MIN T GRIDS AS...THEY APPEAR SPOT ON WHEN COMPARED WITH 00Z                 
LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS OF THE EC AND GFS MODELS.                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LOW CLOUDS...RANGING FROM 300 TO 1400 FEET WILL SLOWLY GIVE AWAY                
TO MID/HIGH CLOUDS AOA 12K FEET AGL. VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO SLOWLY              
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH KPIR THE LAST TAF SITE REPORTING IFR               
VISIBILITY. EXPECT ALL TAF SITES TO BE REPORTING MVFR CONDITIONS                
BY 18Z...WITH SOME SITES SEEING VFR. KATY AND KPIR MAY SEE                      
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON SO EXPECT THESE TWO TERMINALS                
TO BEGIN CARRYING SOME SORT OF CONVECTION MENTION /EITHER CB OR                 
VCTS/ IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME. WINDS WILL                
CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON.                               
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...TMT                                                                    
SHORT TERM...HINTZ                                                              
LONG TERM...DORN                                                                
AVIATION...SD                                                                   
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN                                                            
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