FXUS04 KWBC 201854
QPFPFD
 
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
251 PM EDT TUE JUL 20 2004
 
PRELIM DAY 1 AND DAY 2 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 22/0000 UTC THRU JUL 23/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
 

CNTL PLAINS/MIDWEST/GT LAKES...
SCT SHWRS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT AND PREFRONTAL TROF AS IT MOVES ACRS THE UPR MS VALLEY
INTO THE GT LAKES REGION OVER THE NEXT 36 HRS.  MODELS SHOW A
LOT OF DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING PLACEMENT OF HEAVIER QPF WITH
THE GFS DISPLAYING ITS USUAL FEEDBACK PROBLEMS ESPECIALLY
EARLY IN THE PD WITH POST FRONTAL BLOW UP ACRS NW NEBRASKA. 
GENLY WENT WITH THE ETA MASS FIELD GIVEN ITS LACK OFF
FEEDBACK AND GENL BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. TIED
HEAVIER RAINS TOWARD MEAN LAYER RH AXIS FROM STRETCHING FROM
SW KS NEWD ACRS IA THEN MORE EWD THRU NRN IL/SRN WI/NRN
INDIANA.  K INDICES ARE FCST TO INCREASE INTO THE 39 TO 43
RANGE BY LATE WED FROM NRN KS INTO SRN IA AND NRN IL WHICH
SHOULD HELP TO FUEL SOME LOCALLY HEAVY CNVTV RAINS.  ONE
CONCERN IS WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS SO TENDED TO SHIFT QPF NORTH
OF THE HIEST K VALUES.  

SW U.S..
FLATTENING OF UPR HI OVER AZ SHOULD LESSEN THE RISK OF
ORGANIZED MONSOON ACTIVITY..KEEPING MAIN THREAT TO THE EAST
OF THE RIDGE AXIS..ACRS CO/NM AND W TX.   GFS APPEARS TO BE
DROPPING MID LEVEL MCV OVER ERN NM TOO QUICKLY TO THE SOUTH
BASED ON RECENT SATL IMAGERY.  IN ANY EVENT..SOME DRYING FROM
THE EAST SHOULD KEEP MEAN AREAL AMOUNTS AROUND .25 INCH OR SO
MAINLY OVER SE NM AND WRN TX.

GULF COAST...
DVLPG MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE WRN GULF WILL DRIFT SLOWLY WWD
INCREASING THE RISK OF SHWRS/TSTM INTO COASTAL AREAS OF LA
AND THE UPR TX COAST.  WENT TOWARD SLIGHTLY HEAVIER GFS HERE.

FL...
UPR TROF PUSHING SLOWLY EWD OFF THE MID ATLC COAST SHOULD
FORCE FRONTAL BNDRY INTO EXTREME SRN FL THIS PD..WHERE
GREATEST THREAT OF SHWRS/TSTMS WILL PREVAIL.  ETA LOOKED A
BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE IN SHIFTING ACTIVITY OFFSHORE..SO WENT
CLOSER TO GFS.

NAME AREA...
MODELS ALL SHOW CONTINUED DRYING ACRS ERN SECTIONS OF MEX 
WEST OF DVLPG MID LEVEL LOW ALONG THE TX COAST...WHILE
MAINTAINING HI PWS ALONG THE WEST COAST INCLUDING THE SMO. 
PATRN SUGGESTS POTNL FOR SOME MCS ACTIVITY DVLPG ALONG THE
WRN MTNS WHICH COULD BUILD WWD TOWARD THE COAST BUT
CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR IS LOW.    

DAY 2...

MIDWEST/GRTLKS/CNTRL APLCHNS...
A MDL TIMING DIF CONTS THIS PD...W/THE ETA MUCH FASTER AND THE GFS
SLOWER W/A VORT MAX MOVG UP THE EAST SIDE OF A DIGGING UPR TROF.
THE ECMWF APPEARS TO SUPPORT THE SLOWER GFS...AND BOTH MDLS
ARE TRENDING SLOWER W/THE MAIN TROF MIGRATING THRU THE NRN
PLAINS/CNTRL CAN...SO WENT W/THE SLOWER GFS SOLN. THIS REGION WL
BE NR THE SPLIT IN THE H2 PATTERN...THUS DIFFLUENCE EXISTS ALOFT.
BOTH MDLS PROG PWS AOA 2 INCHES W/30 KTS OF INFLOW...WHICH BEGS
FOR HEAVIER PCPN THAN THE PALTRY GFS AMTS...CLOSER TO THE ETA
BUT W/THE GFS TIMING. LOCAL AMTS OF 2-3 INCHES ARE PSBL ACRS
NRN IN...NRN OH...AND SRN MI.

CNTRL PLAINS...
PCPN WL FALL BOTH ALG A FNT EXPECTED TO SAG THRU THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS...ALG THE LEE TROF...AND NR AN H8 BNDRY EXPECTED TO DVLP IN
SERN CO. DURING THE DAY...ACTIVITY SHOULD FORM NR THE SFC FRONTAL
ZONE. AT NIGHT...PCPN FROM THE HIGH PLAINS WL PROPAGATE SEWD...
MAINLY DUE TO AN OUTFLOW/H8 BNDRY DROPPING QUICKLY TO THE
SOUTH THRU THE REGION. SOME ACTIVITY WL ALSO MOVE EWD... 
RESULTING IN A NET SE MOTION. LOCAL AMTS OF 2-3 INCHES ARE
PSBL HERE.

NAME/MEX...
PCPN WL FALL IN ABUNDANCE ACRS WRN MEXICO AS A CLOSED CYC
ROLLS WWD THRU THE COUNTRY...LEAVING TIERS 1 AND 6 IN AN AREA OF
SIGNIFICANT H2 DIFFLUENCE THRU MUCH OF THE PD. LOWERED GFS AMTS
SOMEWHAT TO COMPENSATE FOR GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK. LOCAL AMTS OF
4-5 INCHES WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE HERE.

SULLIVAN/ROTH

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
 
24HR QP VT 22/00Z
 0.01 224063 232066 237069 241073 253084 262093 265096 270099 
      276103 280108 284112 290112 296110 304111 311111 313110 
      315106 316099 320098 322093 320091 315088 313082 313078 
      316075 321072 323073 327077 330083 332090 335095 341105 
      351121 355122 359120 356113 349103 346098 344091 341081 
      341075 347074 355075 360075 365077 377079 383080 390082 
      401090 409096 413099 419102 424100 427096 427080 426068 
      421064 420060 425059 432060 436063 441068 443072 442078 
      442091 441096 439099 432108 419111 411111 404112 398114 
      393117 390119 389123 387130 387138 388144 390149 394154 
      399156 403155 412153 421143 427132 428128 431125 436121 
      447118 458121 476146 481153 485160 491173 497186 501200 
      509210 519217 523216 528213 533207 534203 533190 532181 
      530171 525165 507145 503141 498136 489130 472110 464095 
      461090 460086 462078 464068 467060 473046 478033 476024 
      472021 468016 463013 451010 444008 438008 436005 433997 
      430981 428970 426963 426957 429958 432963 437967 441966 
      445963 451958 456951 462946 468943 470943 472946 476955 
      477963 481983 483990 486993 492991 501986 505983 508980 
      510977 516964 518953 520944 520938 521933 521925 519915 
      517908 517901 519891 519885 518879 512870 504862 498857 
      496853 498849 506834 505829 503827 498820 490810 487808 
      484808 478807 466807 443807 438806 434804 433795 432788 
      431782 419777 410774 405772 399771 394775 391773 391768 
      388761 383756 376755 368757 362760 358762 354761 349758 
      345758 341762 336774 335779 336783 338786 339789 339794 
      338799 339802 342802 346798 351792 355790 360784 364782 
      371777 378774 388777 389780 387786 378798 365813 361820 
      363824 376823 384822 387826 389831 390837 389843 387849 
      387855 387860 387869 390875 398884 403907 403912 401920 
      399925 397933 394943 390953 384965 377976 364991 346013 
      341014 334015 326016 320019 314020 309023 298027 290027 
      285029 276035 269039 262045 255045 251043 246040 242037 
      235024 229011 
 0.01 481674 479665 475658 468650 463649 457650 452654 450657 
      448663 447671 445684 442696 438708 433719 430723 425727 
      420732 417738 415744 416749 418754 423758 428759 433760 
      441755 447745 453734 456723 459716 463709 471702 476696 
      480689 481684 481674 481674 
 0.01 286794 279791 272790 259786 252787 246792 243799 241806 
      240814 240822 249837 254842 260844 267844 267836 266827 
      274824 280819 284811 284802 286796 286794 
 0.01 309938 309928 308919 306909 302901 298897 294898 292900 
      289905 287911 285927 284934 283940 283945 282948 279954 
      275959 274967 275971 278975 283977 291974 295970 303959 
      307948 309938 
 0.25 226057 237062 248067 258075 266082 276090 285100 290102 
      294102 297100 301095 304088 302079 299071 300067 305062 
      316057 323055 327050 329042 332037 334032 332028 327028 
      315036 301039 287042 277048 266055 260057 255057 250054 
      244049 236042 227034 
 0.25 490897 490885 486881 475880 472876 471870 468865 459860 
      453858 447859 446862 448867 452871 456874 460879 469887 
      467895 466899 464902 461906 461909 464908 470908 476911 
      481913 486912 488907 490899 490897 
 0.25 453922 452906 440902 436899 434894 434882 434878 434874 
      436869 436863 434854 427848 421839 417837 414836 406844 
      405849 404854 404861 405869 406882 407889 408898 410912 
      410926 409938 405950 403956 400961 394967 388975 383984 
      378995 373004 370011 371017 374018 379015 381013 390006 
      397001 404992 409981 409977 407970 407968 409961 415952 
      417948 419943 421931 424919 428922 431932 432939 434943 
      438947 440948 442946 445941 449933 453922 
 0.25 302930 303927 302923 302920 301917 301914 299911 298910 
      296911 295912 295916 294918 294919 294922 294925 295928 
      296931 297934 300936 302933 302932 302930 
 0.25 270801 266796 262795 259795 254797 251799 248803 247807 
      246810 246814 248816 252817 253817 257814 260814 264813 
      267809 268805 270801 
 0.50 427889 423878 419863 418860 416858 413858 411861 410867 
      411874 411886 412894 413901 415915 416928 418928 420923 
      423910 425906 425902 425893 427889 
 0.50 399989 399986 399982 399978 397975 396974 396975 394976 
      391979 388983 387987 386990 385991 384995 383995 384999 
      387999 390999 391998 392997 395994 396993 398991 399989 
 0.50 261808 261804 259803 257805 257806 257807 259808 261808 
      261808 
 0.50 301091 301088 299086 296082 291077 282073 275070 269064 
      261062 252059 245054 239049 233046 229045 227046 227049 
      231055 246063 253067 259072 275079 275085 280090 288097 
      291098 295097 301091 
 0.50 300056 300052 299052 296052 295053 294055 293056 294057 
      296057 299057 300056 
 0.50 282081 280078 277077 276078 277080 277081 280081 282081 
 1.00 296091 294089 291089 289090 289094 291094 293094 294094 
      296091 296091  
 
24HR QP VT 22/12Z
 0.01 222071 229073 233075 242081 251089 261098 271105 281110 
      293113 303119 309122 316123 321121 325116 326114 331113 
      336116 343130 348134 352135 356135 360131 363125 362119 
      359114 354110 351106 350101 351096 355096 357098 361097 
      363095 363091 361083 361079 362077 364075 367075 369079 
      371083 375090 380092 386094 390090 398087 402084 406077 
      411072 421064 425065 430068 433071 436071 437068 440060 
      438051 435042 432036 431027 433010 433999 432989 430978 
      427969 426957 425948 423938 423934 425931 427929 432928 
      437928 444931 451934 460938 473942 486943 493942 501940 
      507938 510933 510930 509924 508918 505912 501904 496898 
      495890 493877 491870 487862 483855 481845 478837 474829 
      470824 464818 458814 455807 453802 451798 447793 441787 
      437784 431781 424779 419777 414776 407777 400780 388781 
      381785 377788 369795 366799 362803 360809 357823 354830 
      358841 358855 360866 363871 369885 373894 375901 378921 
      379930 379936 379955 377975 377983 374989 371995 365001 
      357006 348015 343020 338023 329028 321030 315027 300024 
      284025 268029 259034 249033 242033 237029 229023 
 0.01 481674 479665 475658 468650 463649 457650 453654 450657 
      448663 447671 445684 442696 438708 433719 430723 425727 
      420732 417738 415744 416749 418754 423758 428759 433760 
      441755 447745 453734 456723 459716 463709 471702 476696 
      480689 481684 481674 481674 
 0.01 455147 455142 454139 448134 449131 454126 456120 455111 
      456101 451095 447091 442088 438088 436093 436098 435108 
      439115 441121 445127 442133 433140 434146 437152 443155 
      446156 450155 455147 
 0.01 419150 420146 419142 416139 410139 404139 399137 393137 
      390139 387145 387153 389157 391161 396164 402164 405162 
      409158 412155 415152 419150 
 0.01 415114 417107 417103 415099 412096 409095 406096 403101 
      400102 395104 392106 389109 386116 388122 391123 394122 
      397120 403117 408119 411120 414118 415114 
 0.01 356763 354761 351758 345758 344758 341764 339767 337771 
      335775 335782 339787 342789 346789 348786 350782 352777 
      354772 356767 356763 
 0.01 289812 289807 285803 281798 275793 273783 269781 263781 
      254784 248788 243795 241801 241809 241817 243826 246832 
      251839 256844 263845 267844 268843 269834 269824 271817 
      276815 280815 286817 289812 
 0.01 309938 309928 306919 300908 297905 294905 290910 289917 
      290926 290933 288939 281950 278955 276961 274968 275974 
      281977 289976 293970 299967 304963 305955 309942 309938 
 0.25 471904 471897 469892 463887 453880 442871 436865 432858 
      429852 429846 430842 433837 434828 433817 428809 424803 
      417799 413797 406796 398799 390803 386807 380813 376820 
      375827 376837 380848 387862 391869 395877 398883 401893 
      403904 404911 406914 410911 415911 423909 431908 438908 
      450911 457912 464912 470908 471904 
 0.25 422002 421989 418976 415964 411954 407947 405945 402945 
      399948 397952 395958 393968 391977 389987 383006 383013 
      384019 391025 398029 400032 401038 396044 390046 384046 
      379046 374044 369036 366035 363036 356041 347044 338046 
      328047 319050 314051 312054 316062 319062 324064 329064 
      334065 337067 342067 347066 352067 355068 360069 362066 
      364062 368060 378060 385056 397055 403055 406053 412048 
      417039 419034 418026 420016 422008 422004 422002 
 0.25 225054 232063 237069 253082 261087 272091 277093 283096 
      287098 293099 300099 305095 309092 312092 315095 319095 
      319091 316087 314081 311078 305075 299068 294056 291053 
      285051 281050 274050 264052 257052 252051 242045 228036 
 0.25 264800 261799 259799 258799 255800 253801 251802 250803 
      249806 248806 249809 250812 251813 254813 256813 259810 
      260808 261808 263805 263803 264800 264800 
 0.50 421826 418816 413809 410807 405806 398808 391813 386821 
      384829 384838 388847 391854 397865 400874 404886 408895 
      414900 422901 426899 430896 432892 432887 425865 421856 
      419850 418844 420835 421826 
 0.50 417006 418998 417991 416983 414975 410965 407961 403960 
      400963 398967 394979 392990 392001 393008 395012 398016 
      402019 409018 414015 416010 417006 
 0.50 366051 364049 361049 358050 355051 352053 350054 349056 
      348058 350058 352059 355060 358060 360058 361056 364054 
      366051 
 0.50 336058 338055 335053 332052 330052 327055 330058 333059 
      335058 336058 
 0.50 297091 297085 295082 291075 288069 283064 266061 253055 
      240048 234045 228046 228050 229053 234060 242069 248074 
      253078 260081 267084 276085 283087 290091 297091 
 1.00 423890 423886 421880 420875 416866 413862 410846 411830 
      407826 404821 399819 394822 392829 394838 400852 403860 
      405869 405876 406880 410889 414893 419894 423890 
 1.00 413995 412987 411984 409976 406973 402973 399976 398982 
      397986 398993 398998 402003 405006 410003 412999 413995 
 1.00 265072 264068 261065 257063 253060 250058 247057 242055 
      239054 238057 240060 242063 245067 248070 250072 255074 
      258076 263075 265072 
 1.50 419888 417884 416880 415877 414874 413874 410871 408874 
      407876 408879 409882 410883 412886 413888 414889 417890 
      419888 
 1.50 405988 404985 403984 402985 403989 404991 405988 
 1.50 256066 253065 251063 250062 248063 250065 251066 253066 
      256066 256066  
 
$$