AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA                                              
505 AM PST MON NOV 24 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA                 
COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY...BRINGING              
WET WEATHER TO THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER A BRIEF              
BREAK ON WEDNESDAY...A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN TO               
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY. AFTER THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING            
DRIER WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A                 
STRONG UPPER TROUGH JUST EAST OF 140 W THIS MORNING WITH SPLITTING              
FLOW EVIDENT AND AN IMPRESSIVE DRY SLOT EXTENDING NORTH TO SOUTH                
ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH             
THIS FEATURE...BRINGING THE UPPER LOW TOWARD THE COAST...ALTHOUGH               
WHILE NAM AND GFS BRING AN OPEN WAVE ONSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY THE                
ECMWF MAINTAINS A CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION. NEVERTHELESS ALL SOLUTIONS            
POINT TOWARD A DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN ON TUESDAY AS MOIST FLOW WRAPS             
AROUND THE LOW AND INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FROM THE SOUTH TO                   
SOUTHEAST. THE MAIN VORT MAX IS HEADED FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND            
THE BEST INSTABILITY IS LIKELY TO STAY SOUTH OF THE CWA AS WELL. GFS            
IS STILL HINTING AT SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE GETTING PULLED INTO               
THE FLOW AND HEADING NORTHWARD...BUT CERTAINLY NOT IN THE MANNER OF             
A CLASSIC PINEAPPLE CONNECTION. MODELS CONTINUE THE SLOWING TREND SO            
TRIMMED BACK POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD...AND ALLOWED            
CHANCE POPS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS WILL                 
DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO                    
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW MAKES LANDFALL SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION...AND                
BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND TOWARD VEGAS AND THE 4 CORNERS STATES. THIS               
WILL ALLOW SOME ANTICYCLONIC ROTATION TO DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC               
NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY...AS ANOTHER STRONG LOW             
HEADS ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA.                                                
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS SHOW REASONABLE            
AGREEMENT IN HANDLING OF THE NEXT LOW FORECAST TO APPROACH THE                  
PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER THIS WEEK. TIMING HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT TO                
FAVOR PRECIP AFFECTING MAINLY THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA ON               
THURSDAY...SPREADING SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY NIGHT....AND DECREASING              
TO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND THE MODELS ALL INDICATE             
A LOW FORMING ON THE EAST SIDE OF A LONGWAVE RIDGE IN THE EASTERN               
PACIFIC. BY 12Z SATURDAY THE GFS AND EC ARE JOINED BY THE CANADIAN              
IN FORMING A CUTOFF LOW SOMEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN                               
CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA VICINITY...AS A STRONG RIDGE CONTINUES TO              
BUILD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BY SUNDAY THE GFS IS MOST                     
AGGRESSIVE IN WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE CUTOFF...PUSHING IT OFFSHORE             
SOUTH OF 30 N. THIS TYPE OF SOLUTION FAVORS DRY WEATHER FOR                     
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. CMC                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND 10Z RUC ANALYSIS CONFIRM WEAK              
OFFSHORE FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST IS IN PLACE KEEPING FOG AND                  
STRATUS FROM DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST. THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO               
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD KEEPING WIDESPREAD VFR FLYING CONDITIONS             
IN THE FORECAST. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE TODAY             
AS A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE                    
NORTHWEST. BK                                                                   
.MARINE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS TAKEN SHAPE OFF THE COAST OF                
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING KEEPING SOUTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE               
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OFF NORTHEN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL PERSIST               
THROUGH TONIGHT WHEN THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE                
NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO SHORT LIVED HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD              
IN NORTH OF THE AREA. A MIXED SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS LATER             
THIS MORNING DUE TO THE LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE DOMINANT            
SWELL WILL STILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AT 5 TO 6 FT...WITH A SOUTHERLY             
SWELL MOVING IN AT 3 FT. PERIODS WILL BE 11 SECONDS OUT OF THE WEST             
AND 6 TO 7 SECONDS OUT OF THE SOUTH. SOUTHERLY SWELL TRAIN WILL                 
SUBSIDE TOMORROW EVENING AS THE NORTHWESTERLY SWELL BEGINS TO BUILD             
TO NEAR 12 FT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORT LIVED HIGH            
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE PAC NW. PERIODS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF              
15 SECONDS SO NOT EXPECTING A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING JUST AN                    
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS DURING THIS TIME. ANOTHER LARGER SWELL              
TRAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS FRIDAY MORNING. BK                              
&&                                                                              
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA                                       
</pre> ca                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
730 PM EST MON NOV 24 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY                   
EVENING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES               
REGION TONIGHT AND THEN DRIFT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS OUR REGION ON                  
TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF               
ALBANY...AND RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD TO                  
WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT. PRECIPITATION WILL             
TAPER OFF TUESDAY EVENING AS THE STORM SYSTEM PULLS AWAY.                       
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                                           
MONITORING TRENDS AND A RATHER IMPRESSIVE DIFFLUENCE EVOLVING ACROSS            
PA/NY WITH ASSOCIATED RADAR ECHOES FILLING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE                   
EASTERN NY AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS.  LAPS/RTMA DATA AND ASSOCIATED               
SURFACE OBS REVEAL TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN IN THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM            
THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID HUDSON VALLEY            
WITH MAINLY LOWER 40S.  DEWPOINTS WERE BETWEEN 25F AND 35F AS WET               
BULB FREEZING TEMPERATURES WERE JUST NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND            
WEST.  ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE DACKS...MAINLY              
SNOW AS SEEN ON SEVERAL WEB CAMS AND REPORTING SURFACE OBS.                     
BASED ON THOSE OBSERVATIONS AND THE LATEST RUC13 WET BULB ZERO                  
HEIGHTS AND LOCALLY PRODUCED HIREF WRF...THINKING THE CURRENT                   
HEADLINES LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME.  WE MIGHT BE A LITTLE HIGH WITH               
SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CATSKILLS AND WILL AWAIT FOR ADDITIONAL                 
GROUND TRUTH BEFORE MAKING A SHIFT IN THE FORECAST.  IT DOES SEEM               
THE HUDSON VALLEY LOCATIONS FROM THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION AND               
POINTS SOUTHWARD...A MAINLY RAIN EVENT MAY BE UNFOLDING.  ADDITIONAL            
UPDATES WILL BE FORTHCOMING...                                                  
PREVIOUS AFTERNOON DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                                        
WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN             
ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS TONIGHT THROUGH                  
TUESDAY FOR HEAVY SNOW. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE FROM THE                 
HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD TO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.                                  
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE               
AREA THIS EVENING AS ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOC WITH A WARM FRONT                    
INCREASES AHEAD OF A SURFACE CYCLONE SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS            
LAKE ERIE. HOWEVER...AS A POWERFUL CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVES                
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO TUE...SECONDARY                   
DEVELOPMENT WILL TAKE PLACE NEAR SOUTHEAST NY ALONG THE WARM                    
FRONT...FOCUSING AN AXIS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF ACROSS EASTERN NY             
INTO NEW ENGLAND. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING QPF                   
AMOUNTS OF 1-2" ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL TEMP PROFILES              
AND ELEVATION WILL BE VERY CRITICAL IN DETERMINING RAIN VS SNOW AND             
RESULTANT WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.                                                  
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS TEMP WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SNOW                
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS THE FOR THE            
EASTERN CATSKILLS AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SCHOHARIE COUNTY.                
THESE AREAS HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. THE AREA              
OF HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOW ARE ACROSS THE                     
ADIRONDACKS. ONE COMPLICATING FACTOR ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS               
WILL BE THE ARRIVAL OF A WARM LAYER OF AIR ADVECTING IN AROUND 925              
MB COURTESY OF A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY JET. HOWEVER...THE AIR                 
ALOFT /AROUND 850 MB/ WILL REMAIN COOL AND COOL FURTHER DURING THE              
DAY TUE AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND PA. SO            
THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF RAIN MIXING IN BELOW 2000 FEET IN THE                  
EASTERN CATSKILLS.                                                              
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP DEMARCATION FOR RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE               
FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...UPPER HUDSON                     
VALLEY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. LOW LEVEL                       
AGEOSTROPHIC WIND COMPONENT WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG FROM THE N-NE                 
WHICH WILL ALLOW COLD AIR TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH             
OF TUE. THERE COULD BE WIDE RANGING SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THESE                    
AREAS...SO WILL GO WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. THERE MAY BE A               
BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN DURING PRECIP TYPE                          
TRANSITIONS...BUT IT APPEARS THE MAIN WINTER HAZARD ASSOC WITH                  
HEADLINES WILL BE FROM SNOWFALL.                                                
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST TUE MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN                
VERMONT AND STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY. THIS WIND COMPONENT IS                     
TYPICALLY FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN GREEN                    
MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE JUST                
NORTH OF THE AREA. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WIND ADVISORIES AT THIS                   
TIME...BUT MAY BE NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS.                                  
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA WILL                   
EXPERIENCE PRIMARILY RAIN...WITH POSSIBLY SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT THE             
ONSET TONIGHT. FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT...PLEASE SEE HYDRO                
SECTION FOR DETAILS.                                                            
AT THE TAIL END OF THE STEADY PRECIP...THERE COULD BE ANOTHER                   
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AS COLD AIR WRAPS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST WITH            
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF ALBANY AS THE               
SECONDARY LOW AND BOUNDARY LIFT NORTHWARD. A DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN              
FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST TUE EVENING...CUTTING OFF THE PRECIP FOR THE            
ENTIRE AREA.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...                               
ON WEDNESDAY...THE STACKED LOW WILL BE SITUATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN               
ONTARIO. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE SYSTEM...ALONG WITH SOME LOCAL                
ENHANCEMENT OFF THE LAKES AND UPSLOPE TERRAIN EFFECTS...WILL ALLOW              
FOR THE CHC FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMP PROFILE             
AND TIME OF DAY WILL ULTIMATELY DICTATE P-TYPE...WITH MAINLY SNOW               
SHOWERS IN WESTERN AREAS/HIGHER TERRAIN...AND MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS               
FOR THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED CLOSE TO MAV               
GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR TEMPS. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIMITED TO            
THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...AND WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN AN INCH.                  
THE STORM WILL MOVE LITTLE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH CYCLONIC SNOW              
SHOWERS/FLURRIES CONTINUING OVER MAINLY WESTERN/NORTHERN PARTS OF               
THE CWA. BOTH THE LATEST 18Z NAM AND 12Z GFS HINT AT THE SPOKE OF               
VORTICITY BRUSHING THROUGH THE ADIRONDACKS...SO COULD BE SOME                   
ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATION /AN INCH OR LESS/ ACROSS NORTHERN                 
PARTS OF HAMILTON/HERKIMER COUNTIES. BEST LAKE ENHANCEMENT SHOULD BE            
NORTH OF THE AREA...AS SFC-850MB WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE A SW                   
DIRECTION. MIN TEMPS WILL BE HELD UP DUE TO DECENT CLOUD COVER....SO            
ONLY AM EXPECTING 20S OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA.                            
BY THURSDAY...THE STORM WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO               
WESTERN QUEBEC /ACCORDING TO THE 12Z GFS/...AND SLOWLY WEAKEN. THIS             
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MUCH OF THE CYCLONIC SHOWERS TO BEGIN TO WANE BY               
THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...STILL COULD HAVE SOME LAKE EFFECT TO                
DEAL WITH...AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. LAKE/AIR TEMP                    
DIFFERENTIAL WILL NOT BE EXTREME /STABILITY CLASS LIKELY JUST                   
CONDITIONAL/ BUT THERE COULD BE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR               
PARTS OF THE WESTERN DACKS...ESP BY THURSDAY EVENING. THURSDAY/S MAX            
TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY...AS CLOUD COVER AND              
CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD KEEPS TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE               
ENTIRE AREA. WITH A FEW MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BY THURSDAY NIGHT             
THANKS TO THE WEAKENING STORM...THURSDAY NIGHT/S MINS COULD BE A FEW            
DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                           
NOT A GREAT DEAL OF CERTAINTY REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AS               
THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE VARIED FROM RUN TO RUN REGARDING THE TIMING              
AND PLACEMENT OF SEVERAL FEATURES WHICH WILL HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT ON            
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER.                                                           
BOTH OPERATIONAL 12Z RUNS OF THE MODELS DEPICT A STRONG SOUTHERLY               
STREAM JET OVER THE DEEP SOUTH /IN EXCESS OF 130 KTS/ AS WELL AS A              
WEAK CLIPPER MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE            
BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THAT THE ECMWF IS ABOUT A DAY FASTER WITH THIS            
NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE. BOTH MODELS DO WANT TO PHASE THE UPPER                 
LEVEL ENERGY...WITH BOTH MODELS DOING THIS OFFSHORE...ALBEIT THE GFS            
DOES THIS A LOT CLOSER TO THE COAST. WITH THE GFS SOLUTION...THE                
CWA...ALTHOUGH MAINLY ONLY EASTERN PARTS...WILL BE ON THE FAR                   
WESTERN SIDE OF THIS STORM...AND COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW FOR             
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH P-TYPE WILL ULTIMATELY            
DEPEND ON THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMP PROFILE AND ELEVATION.                        
MEANWHILE...IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION COMES TO FRUITION...THERE WILL BE             
NOTHING MORE THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE                  
CLIPPER FOR FRIDAY...AS ANY RAPIDLY DEVELOPING CYCLOGENESIS WILL                
OCCUR WELL TO THE EAST /SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA/.                                  
BOTH MODELS DO SHOW A COLDER PATTERN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR                     
LATER SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH SLGT CHC/LOW CHC POPS WARRANTED               
FOR CYCLONIC INSTABILITY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...AND EVEN SOME LAKE                 
EFFECT IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF LK ONTARIO. OVERALL...TEMPS LOOK TO RUN             
NEAR TO SOMEWHAT BELOW AVERAGE...ESP FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD...AS                
BOTH MODELS SHOW 850 MB TEMPS PLUNGING BETWEEN -6 TO -10 DEGREES C              
BY MONDAY AFTN.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
LATEST RETURNS FROM THE KENX WSR-88D SHOW PRECIP RAPIDLY MOVING                 
TOWARDS THE REGION. AIR IS CURRENTLY FAIRLY DRY AT THE SURFACE...BUT            
WILL MOISTEN UP AS THE PRECIP FALLS THROUGH IT. AM EXPECTING PRECIP             
TO MOVE INTO THE TERMINALS BY 02Z-04Z. PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN ENTIRELY             
AS RAIN AT KPOU...AND MAY VERY BRIEFLY FALL AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT               
KALB. HOWEVER...COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW HOUR             
PERIOD OF SNOW AT KGFL...BEFORE IT CHANGES TO RAIN THERE ENTIRELY BY            
07Z. ONCE THE PRECIP BEGINS...IT WILL LIKELY DROP VSBY TO THE MVFR              
RANGE. TOWARDS THE END OF THE NIGHT...STEADIER AND HEAVIER PRECIP               
WILL LIKELY DROP VSBY DOWN TO THE IFR RANGE...AND PERHAPS EVEN THE              
CIGS TOO...ESP AT KPOU. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING            
AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FOR THE STORM APPROACHES THE REGION. THE              
STORM/S OCCLUDED FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE                
REGION BY EARLY TO MID AFTN TUESDAY...WHICH WILL CHANGE THE WINDS               
AROUND TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION AND LIKELY SHUT OFF MOST OF THE             
PRECIP. THIS SHOULD ALLOW CIGS/VSBYS TO BOTH RECOVER BACK TO VFR                
RANGE BY LATE AFTN TUESDAY.                                                     
THE OTHER AVIATION CONCERN IS FOR LLWS. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS              
TO BE ONLY A MARGINAL THREAT FOR A PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.              
WINDS AT THE 2000 FT LEVEL WILL BE AROUND 30-35 KTS...WHICH                     
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT SURFACE WIND WILL DETERMINE IF THERE IS                  
ENOUGH SHEAR TO MEET THE LLWS THRESHOLD. ANY LLWS SHOULD DIMINISH BY            
SUNRISE...AS THE BEST WINDS ALOFT SHIFT EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE                  
REGION.                                                                         
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
WED...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SHRA/-SHSN.                                               
THU-FRI...VFR...NO SIG WX.                                                      
SAT...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SHSN/-SHRA.                                               
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD DUE            
TO FORECAST HIGH RAINFALL RATES ON FROZEN GROUND.                               
A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO THE               
ALBANY HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA OVER NEXT 24 HOURS. MODEL TEMPERATURE            
PROFILES INDICATE THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE SNOW                
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...WITH PRIMARILY              
RAIN FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EAST. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT            
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FROM THE EVENT.                                       
HERE AT ALBANY...WE MEASURED THE GROUND FROZEN TO A DEPTH OF 3.5                
INCHES THIS MORNING. DUE TO RECENT COLD WEATHER...IT IS ESTIMATED               
THAT THE GROUND IS FROZEN TO A DEPTH OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE                
HIGHER TERRAIN OF GREEN MOUNTAINS...BERKSHIRES...TACONICS AND                   
LITCHFIELD HILLS. FORECAST HIGH RAINFALL RATES ON FROZEN GROUND                 
TUESDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SHARP RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND            
CREEKS. SOME SMALL STREAMS MAY REACH FLOOD STAGE. FLOODING OF LARGER            
RIVERS IS LESS LIKELY...BUT MANY LARGER RIVERS INCLUDING THE                    
METAWEE...THE BATTENKILL...THE WALLOOMSAC...THE HOOSIC AND THE                  
HOUSATONIC MAY APPROACH FLOOD STAGE ON TUESDAY.                                 
FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC                
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.                                
&&                                                                              
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING              
     FOR CTZ001-013.                                                            
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR                  
     NYZ032-033-042-047-058-063-082.                                            
     FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING              
     FOR NYZ041-043-049-050-052>054-059>061-064>066-083-084.                    
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR               
     NYZ038>041-043-048-051-083.                                                
MA...FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING              
     FOR MAZ001-025.                                                            
VT...FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING              
     FOR VTZ013>015.                                                            
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT                
     EST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR VTZ013-014.                                          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...JPV                                                                  
NEAR TERM...BGM/JPV                                                             
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS                                                             
LONG TERM...FRUGIS                                                              
AVIATION...FRUGIS                                                               
HYDROLOGY...DIRIENZO                                                            
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY                                                          
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA                                             
329 PM EST MON NOV 24 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND             
TUESDAY...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN WHICH WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES.              
THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING STRONG WINDS TO MUCH OF THE COASTAL PLAIN            
ON TUESDAY.  COOLER AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY                
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING             
SOME RAIN TO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.                         
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...                                      
915 AND 1015 AM MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GRID TRENDS THIS MORNING. RUC              
13 VIA TSECS HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON CURRENT AND NEAR TERM CLOUD BANDS           
NR 7000 FT. GRIDS MODIFIED.                                                     
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE COAST TODAY AS LOW            
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING HIGH           
CLOUDINESS...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING             
OR TONIGHT. IN FACT...WE MAY SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF FILTERED SUNSHINE             
TODAY.                                                                          
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL           
DAYS AS THE FLOW GOES SOUTH AND THE AIRMASS WARMS. EVEN STILL...HIGH            
TEMPS WILL TOP OUT AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MAXES WERE DERIVED            
FROM A BLEND OF NAM 2M TEMPS AND MAVMOSGUIDE...WITH SLIGHTLY MORE               
WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE MOS.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                     
1110 AM... ISSUING HIGH WIND WATCH BOSTON TO MANCHESTER AND POINTS              
EAST TO CAPE ANN. SE WIND HIGH WIND CASES IN OUR CLIMO ARE RARE BUT             
MARGINAL HIGH WIND CASE ENVISIONED PER MODEL PRES CHANGES... LAPSE              
RATES...BL AND 925 MB WINDS BOTH 12Z GFS/NAM. NAM BL WINDS ARE UP TO            
38 KTS NOW AT CONCORD. THAT SEEMS A LITTLE HIGH BUT PER COLLAB WITH             
GYX...ADDED ASH TO MHT. GREATEST CONFIDENCE IN SIGNIFICANT POWER                
OUTAGES AND SUSTAINED WIND 40 OR GREATER IS MQE AND BOS TO LWM REGION           
EWD. MAY SEE GUST 60 KTS AT MQE. WIND ADVY WILL BE ISSUED REMAINDER             
I95 REGION OF RI AND MASS AT 4PM.                                               
REMAINDER BLO FROM 4AM...                                                       
CLOUDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE EARLY THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE                 
CONTINUES TO APPROACH. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL ARRIVE FROM WEST           
TO EAST...STARTING IN THE CT VALLEY SOMETIME BETWEEN 02Z AND                    
06Z...THEN SPREADING EASTWARD FROM THERE. THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION            
TYPE WILL BE RAIN...ALTHOUGH A PORTION OF NW MASS AND SW NH MAY SEE A           
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AT THE START. NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.           
ATTM...THE THINKING IS THAT THE SFC TEMPS WILL WARM UP ENOUGH TO                
ALLOW FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF FREEZING RAIN IF ANY AT ALL. IT WOULD BE           
EXTREMELY ISOLATED AT BEST. WENT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR ALL ZONES            
BY LATE AT NIGHT. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL             
JET GETS GOING.                                                                 
RAIN WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY THE                
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EASTERN HALF DURING            
THE AFTERNOON. CATEGORICAL POPS FOR ALL AREAS. BEST GUESS AT THIS               
TIME IS THAT A GENERAL .75 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN WILL FALL...WITH               
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS SHOULDN/T CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING                
PROBLEMS. HOWEVER...WE/LL LIKELY SEE THE NORMAL MINOR URBAN/POOR                
DRAINAGE FLOODING AT TIMES. WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF                        
THUNDER...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES...AS WEAK INSTABILITY           
MAY DEVELOP AS THE LLJ PUMPS NORTHWARD A DECENT PLUME OF THETA-E.               
THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR TUESDAY MAY BE THE WINDS...AS A 65 KNOT                 
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. THIS MAY LEAD TO SPEEDS OF WIND               
ADVISORY CRITERIA IF NOT ISOLD MARGINAL HWW CRITERIA TUESDAY                    
AFTERNOON ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND POSSIBLY THE REST OF EASTERN                
MASS. THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY BE AFFECTED AS WELL. SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS             
MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER ADVISORIES/WATCHES/WARNINGS. ANY CONVECTION                
COULD BRING DOWN ISOLD STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY IF SFC            
TEMPS REALLY WARM UP.                                                           
THERE MAY BE A 1-2 FOOT SURGE ON THE SOUTH COAST BAYS WITH THE STRONG           
SOUTHERLY LLJ....BUT TIDES ARE LOW AND PRESSURE FALLS NOT OVERLY                
IMPRESSIVE. THEREFORE...NO COASTAL FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED AT            
THIS TIME.                                                                      
MODEL MAX TEMPS FOR TUESDAY LOOKED TOO LOW. THESE SOUTHERLY LLJ                 
EVENTS ALMOST ALWAYS PRODUCE HIGHER SURFACE TEMPS THAN WHAT MOS AND             
EVEN MODEL 2M TEMPS INDICATE. WENT FOR MID 50S ACROSS EASTERN MASS/RI           
AND PORTIONS OF CT. COOLER TEMPS /40S - LOW 50S/ WILL BE FOUND ACROSS           
THE INTERIOR ALTHOUGH IT/S QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THEY WILL NEED TO BE             
RAISED AS WELL.                                                                 
OCCLUSION WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TUE EVENING.  NAM              
IS THE SLOWEST MOVING THE OCCLUSION THROUGH AND BRINGS A SLUG OF                
HEAVY RAIN TO E MA INTO SE NH AT THE NOSE OF A PERSISTENT SELY LLJ.             
CONSENSUS AMONG OTHER MODELS INCLUDING GFS FAVORS A FASTER SOLUTION             
SO WE LEANED TOWARD GFS WHICH LIFTS THE HEAVIER RAFL NORTH AND EAST             
OF SNE BY TUE EVENING.  HOWEVER...SOME RAIN WILL LIKELY LINGER                  
ACROSS NE ZONES NEAR THE NOSE OF THE LLJ SO WE WILL HAVE LIKELY TO              
CATEGORICAL POPS TUE EVENING FROM SW NH THROUGH E MA WITH LOWER POPS            
FURTHER SW AS DRY SLOT MOVES IN.  ALSO...GFS INSTABILITY PARAMETERS             
SUGGEST ISOLD ELEVATED THUNDER POSSIBLE E MA THROUGH SE NH.                     
TREND TUE NIGHT WILL BE FOR DECREASING POPS AS THE DRY SLOT MOVES               
THROUGH. WIND MAY STILL BE A CONCERN TUE EVENING FROM CAPE COD                  
THROUGH CAPE ANN WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE LLJ AND WILL HAVE                 
HIGHER GUSTS IN THIS REGION. COLDER AIR WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE IN TUE             
NIGHT AS UPPER LOW REMAINS TO THE NW WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. MIN             
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 20S FAR NW TO MID/UPPER 30S COASTAL                 
PLAIN.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                        
WEDNESDAY...                                                                    
THE DRY SLOT WILL HAVE WRAPPED INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY               
WEDNESDAY MORNING.  WE EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE                         
MORNING...BUT STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD                  
RESULT IN LOTS OF DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON AND                   
GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LOOKS TO REMAIN             
WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST...SO WE EXPECT MAINLY A DRY DAY.                          
HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR A BRIEF PASSING                 
SHOWER/SPRINKLE IN THE AFTERNOON.  IT COULD BE IN THE FORM OF A WET SNOW        
SHOWER/FLURRY IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...BUT NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED             
WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.  HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD MAINLY              
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S...WITH READINGS A BIT COOLER IN THE                  
HIGHER TERRAIN.                                                                 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...                                                              
AN ISOLATED SHOWER/SPRINKLE WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY                 
EVENING...BUT OTHERWISE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MUCH OF               
THE NIGHT.  THEREFORE...WE LEANED TOWARDS THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE               
WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.  LOWS SHOULD MAINLY            
BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE A BIT WARMER              
IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND OF BOSTON.                                             
THURSDAY...                                                                     
SHOULD SEE PARTIAL SUNSHINE...BUT ANOTHER DAY OF DIURNAL AFTERNOON              
CUMULUS EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH A POCKET OF            
COLD AIR ALOFT.  WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR PERHAPS A                 
BRIEF INSTABILITY PASSING RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE DISTANT                   
INTERIOR...BUT CAN NOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN THAT.  HIGHS WILL MAINLY              
BE IN THE 40S.                                                                  
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...                                                          
CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT              
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THE GFS/CANADIAN HAVE PRECIPITATION OVER                  
SPREADING MOST OF THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS                  
ENSEMBLES ARE A BIT SLOWER AND HAVE THE BULK OF THE ACTION SATURDAY             
AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  THIS FAR OUT THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON             
THE TIMING SO WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY              
NIGHT.  BASED ON THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...WE EXPECT MAINLY            
RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM.  HOWEVER...CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF            
SNOW OR ICE ACROSS THE DISTANT INTERIOR AT THE ONSET.  THE ECMWF                
SEEMS TO BE A BIT OF AN OUTLIER DEVELOPING THE WAVE FURTHER EAST AND            
HAS LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM.  WHILE WE DO NOT              
EXPECT A LOT OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...WOULD FAVOR MOST OF            
THE REGION SEEING AT LEAST SOME RAIN.                                           
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...                                                            
BASED ON THE LATEST MODELS DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER WILL WORK BACK                
INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.  THE GFS IS DRY ON MONDAY AND MONDAY                 
NIGHT BUT ITS ENSEMBLES AND THE 12Z ECMWF INDICATE THE THREAT OF                
MORE PRECIPITATION SOMETIME MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.  LOW CONFIDENCE             
THIS FAR OUT...BUT THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME WINTRY WEATHER TO                 
PORTIONS OF OUR REGION WITH A CHILLY AIRMASS IN PLACE.                          
THEREFORE...WILL CARRY SOME CHANCE POPS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BUT             
AGAIN THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT.                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                      
TODAY...VFR OCNL CIGS NEAR 8000 FT ALONG WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT                  
SOUTHERLY WINDS.                                                                
TONIGHT...ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING GRADUALLY LOWERING                  
CEILINGS...FOLLOWED BY RAIN SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND               
FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS EVENING. THE NIGHT WILL START WITH VFR             
CONDITIONS...BUT THEN DETERIORATE TO MVFR...THEN IFR/LIFR LATE.                 
TUESDAY...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN RAIN...POSSIBLY HEAVY              
AT TIMES. LLWS IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY AT TERMINALS IN RI AND EASTERN            
MASS AS SOUTHEASTERLY LLJ DEVELOPS. ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE. ESE SFC WINDS          
LIKELY GUST 40 KT RI/EASTERN MASS...ESPECIALLY BOSTON AREA 15Z-21Z.             
LLWS EXPECTED FROM PVD TO MHT AND EAST.                                         
LINGERING MVFR/IFR IN RAIN TUE EVENING ESPECIALLY MHT-BOS-HYA-                  
ACK...IMPROVING TO VFR OVERNIGHT. RAPIDLY DIMINISHING WINDS EXPECTED.           
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...                                         
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.                                          
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WE WILL PROBABLY SEE A PERIOD             
OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SOME RAIN SHOWERS OVER THIS PERIOD.                   
TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN THROUGH.                                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
QUIET DAY TODAY ON THE LOCAL WATERS WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.           
RELATIVELY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED.                                       
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN                 
MARKEDLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WENT WITH A GALE WARNING FOR ALL WATERS                
STARTING AT 06Z TO KEEP THINGS SIMPLE...ALTHOUGH GALES MAY NOT ARRIVE           
ON NORTHERN WATERS TIL A BIT LATER ON.                                          
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES EVEN MORE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. AFTER             
LOOKING OVER ALL THE AVAILABLE DATA...DECIDED TO GO WITH STRONG GALES           
ON ALL WATERS INSTEAD OF STORMS. HAVE ALLOWED GUST NR 50 KTS MERR RVR           
TO NEAR BOSTON HARBOR WATERS TUE AFTN. LOW LEVEL INVERSION CAN                  
INHIBIT BUT PRES GRAD AND TURB MXG MAY ALLOW FOR GST 50KTS....ESP               
MERR RIVER REGION.                                                              
HOWEVER...IT/S POSSIBLE THAT WINDS COULD BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER LATER             
TUESDAY...RESULTING IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MARGINAL STORM FORCE WINDS.            
SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS BUILD UP TO 15 FEET...WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED            
TO SEE 44008 AND 44018 TOP OUT BETWEEN 15 AND 20 FEET.                          
STRONGEST WINDS BY TUE EVENING WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN WATERS EAST OF            
CAPE ANN TO CAPE COD WHERE STRONG SE GALES LIKELY INVOF LLJ.  GUSTS             
TO 45 KT POSSIBLE.  WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SW AND DECREASE AS OCCLUSION            
MOVES THROUGH.  THIS WILL HAPPEN BY TUE EVENING OVER THE WESTERN                
WATERS AND AROUND MIDNIGHT EASTERN WATERS.  SEAS UP TO 15 FEET OUTER            
EASTERN WATERS TUE NIGHT.                                                       
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...                                         
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA                
THRESHOLDS OVER THIS TIME.  HOWEVER...ROUGH SEAS OVER THE                       
OUTER-WATERS WILL CONTINUE REQUIRING SCA FOR MUCH IF NOT THE ENTIRE             
PERIOD.                                                                         
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WE MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA WIND               
GUSTS IN ASSOCIATION WITH OUR NEXT SYSTEM.  OTHERWISE...HEADLINES               
WILL LIKELY NEED TO REMAIN UP FOR THE OUTER-WATERS MOST OF THE TIME.            
&&                                                                              
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ013-017>024.            
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON             
     FOR MAZ005>007-014>016.                                                    
NH...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON             
     FOR NHZ012.                                                                
RI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR RIZ002-004>008.            
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230>237-254-         
     255.                                                                       
     STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ250.                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/FRANK                                                           
NEAR TERM...DRAG/EKSTER                                                         
SHORT TERM...DRAG/EKSTER                                                        
LONG TERM...FRANK                                                               
AVIATION...NMB/FRANK                                                            
MARINE...DRAG/FRANK                                                             
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA                                             
138 PM EST MON NOV 24 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO            
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THE               
SYSTEM MAY BRING STRONG WINDS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.              
COOLER AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW MIDWEEK ON.           
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
915 AND 1015 AM MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GRID TRENDS THIS MORNING. RUC              
13 VIA TSECS HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON CURRENT AND NEAR TERM CLOUD BANDS           
NR 7000 FT. GRIDS MODIFIED.                                                     
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE COAST TODAY AS LOW            
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING HIGH           
CLOUDINESS...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING             
OR TONIGHT. IN FACT...WE MAY SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF FILTERED SUNSHINE             
TODAY.                                                                          
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL           
DAYS AS THE FLOW GOES SOUTH AND THE AIRMASS WARMS. EVEN STILL...HIGH            
TEMPS WILL TOP OUT AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MAXES WERE DERIVED            
FROM A BLEND OF NAM 2M TEMPS AND MAVMOSGUIDE...WITH SLIGHTLY MORE               
WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE MOS.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                        
1110 AM... ISSUING HIGH WIND WATCH BOSTON TO MANCHESTER AND POINTS              
EAST TO CAPE ANN. SE WIND HIGH WIND CASES IN OUR CLIMO ARE RARE BUT             
MARGINAL HIGH WIND CASE ENVISIONED PER MODEL PRES CHANGES... LAPSE              
RATES...BL AND 925 MB WINDS BOTH 12Z GFS/NAM. NAM BL WINDS ARE UP TO            
38 KTS NOW AT CONCORD. THAT SEEMS A LITTLE HIGH BUT PER COLLAB WITH             
GYX...ADDED ASH TO MHT. GREATEST CONFIDENCE IN SIGNIFICANT POWER                
OUTAGES AND SUSTAINED WIND 40 OR GREATER IS MQE AND BOS TO LWM REGION           
EWD. MAY SEE GUST 60 KTS AT MQE. WIND ADVY WILL BE ISSUED REMAINDER             
I95 REGION OF RI AND MASS AT 4PM.                                               
REMAINDER BLO FROM 4AM...                                                       
CLOUDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE EARLY THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE                 
CONTINUES TO APPROACH. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL ARRIVE FROM WEST           
TO EAST...STARTING IN THE CT VALLEY SOMETIME BETWEEN 02Z AND                    
06Z...THEN SPREADING EASTWARD FROM THERE. THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION            
TYPE WILL BE RAIN...ALTHOUGH A PORTION OF NW MASS AND SW NH MAY SEE A           
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AT THE START. NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.           
ATTM...THE THINKING IS THAT THE SFC TEMPS WILL WARM UP ENOUGH TO                
ALLOW FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF FREEZING RAIN IF ANY AT ALL. IT WOULD BE           
EXTREMELY ISOLATED AT BEST. WENT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR ALL ZONES            
BY LATE AT NIGHT. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL             
JET GETS GOING.                                                                 
RAIN WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY THE                
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EASTERN HALF DURING            
THE AFTERNOON. CATEGORICAL POPS FOR ALL AREAS. BEST GUESS AT THIS               
TIME IS THAT A GENERAL .75 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN WILL FALL...WITH               
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS SHOULDN/T CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING                
PROBLEMS. HOWEVER...WE/LL LIKELY SEE THE NORMAL MINOR URBAN/POOR                
DRAINAGE FLOODING AT TIMES. WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF                        
THUNDER...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES...AS WEAK INSTABILITY           
MAY DEVELOP AS THE LLJ PUMPS NORTHWARD A DECENT PLUME OF THETA-E.               
THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR TUESDAY MAY BE THE WINDS...AS A 65 KNOT                 
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. THIS MAY LEAD TO SPEEDS OF WIND               
ADVISORY CRITERIA IF NOT ISOLD MARGINAL HWW CRITERIA TUESDAY                    
AFTERNOON ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND POSSIBLY THE REST OF EASTERN                
MASS. THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY BE AFFECTED AS WELL. SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS             
MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER ADVISORIES/WATCHES/WARNINGS. ANY CONVECTION                
COULD BRING DOWN ISOLD STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY IF SFC            
TEMPS REALLY WARM UP.                                                           
THERE MAY BE A 1-2 FOOT SURGE ON THE SOUTH COAST BAYS WITH THE STRONG           
SOUTHERLY LLJ....BUT TIDES ARE LOW AND PRESSURE FALLS NOT OVERLY                
IMPRESSIVE. THEREFORE...NO COASTAL FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED AT            
THIS TIME.                                                                      
MODEL MAX TEMPS FOR TUESDAY LOOKED TOO LOW. THESE SOUTHERLY LLJ                 
EVENTS ALMOST ALWAYS PRODUCE HIGHER SURFACE TEMPS THAN WHAT MOS AND             
EVEN MODEL 2M TEMPS INDICATE. WENT FOR MID 50S ACROSS EASTERN MASS/RI           
AND PORTIONS OF CT. COOLER TEMPS /40S - LOW 50S/ WILL BE FOUND ACROSS           
THE INTERIOR ALTHOUGH IT/S QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THEY WILL NEED TO BE             
RAISED AS WELL.                                                                 
OCCLUSION WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TUE EVENING.  NAM              
IS THE SLOWEST MOVING THE OCCLUSION THROUGH AND BRINGS A SLUG OF                
HEAVY RAIN TO E MA INTO SE NH AT THE NOSE OF A PERSISTENT SELY LLJ.             
CONSENSUS AMONG OTHER MODELS INCLUDING GFS FAVORS A FASTER SOLUTION             
SO WE LEANED TOWARD GFS WHICH LIFTS THE HEAVIER RAFL NORTH AND EAST             
OF SNE BY TUE EVENING.  HOWEVER...SOME RAIN WILL LIKELY LINGER                  
ACROSS NE ZONES NEAR THE NOSE OF THE LLJ SO WE WILL HAVE LIKELY TO              
CATEGORICAL POPS TUE EVENING FROM SW NH THROUGH E MA WITH LOWER POPS            
FURTHER SW AS DRY SLOT MOVES IN.  ALSO...GFS INSTABILITY PARAMETERS             
SUGGEST ISOLD ELEVATED THUNDER POSSIBLE E MA THROUGH SE NH.                     
TREND TUE NIGHT WILL BE FOR DECREASING POPS AS THE DRY SLOT MOVES               
THROUGH. WIND MAY STILL BE A CONCERN TUE EVENING FROM CAPE COD                  
THROUGH CAPE ANN WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE LLJ AND WILL HAVE                 
HIGHER GUSTS IN THIS REGION. COLDER AIR WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE IN TUE             
NIGHT AS UPPER LOW REMAINS TO THE NW WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. MIN             
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 20S FAR NW TO MID/UPPER 30S COASTAL                 
PLAIN.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                        
CLOSED LOW LIFTS NWD INTO CANADA WED. MAY GET ENOUGH DRYING FOR SOME            
SUNSHINE WED MORNING BUT CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY FILL BACK IN                     
ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR. CANT RULE OUT A FEW RA/SNW SHOWERS AS               
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW. BEST CHC WILL BE ACROSS          
NW ZONES CLOSEST TO THE COLD POOL ALOFT. SEASONABLE TEMPS EXPECTED              
WED.                                                                            
THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF CLOSED LOW TOWARD THE            
END OF THE WEEK.  ECMWF NOW MOVES CLOSED LOW BACK SWD ACROSS NEW ENG            
BUT THIS IS THE OUTLIER AS GFS/UKMET/GGEM KEEP LOW WELL TO THE NORTH            
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BY FRI.  FOLLOWED CONSENSUS AND             
WILL HAVE DRY FCST FOR THU/FRI WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.                           
UPPER VORTEX SETS UP NEAR JAMES BAY FOR THE WEEKEND WITH LONG WAVE              
TROF ACROSS GT LAKES BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD IN THE              
HANDLING OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH.  ECMWF/GFS HAVE A STORM FOR            
THE WEEKEND BUT IT LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY WET.  WE WILL HAVE CHC POPS               
FOR SAT/SUN ALTHOUGH ECMWF DRIES IT OUT FOR SUN.                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                      
TODAY...VFR OCNL CIGS NEAR 8000 FT ALONG WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT                  
SOUTHERLY WINDS.                                                                
TONIGHT...ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING GRADUALLY LOWERING                  
CEILINGS...FOLLOWED BY RAIN SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND               
FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS EVENING. THE NIGHT WILL START WITH VFR             
CONDITIONS...BUT THEN DETERIORATE TO MVFR...THEN IFR/LIFR LATE.                 
TUESDAY...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN RAIN...POSSIBLY HEAVY              
AT TIMES. LLWS IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY AT TERMINALS IN RI AND EASTERN            
MASS AS SOUTHEASTERLY LLJ DEVELOPS. ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE. ESE SFC WINDS          
LIKELY GUST 40 KT RI/EASTERN MASS...ESPECIALLY BOSTON AREA 15Z-21Z.             
LLWS EXPECTED FROM PVD TO MHT AND EAST.                                         
LINGERING MVFR/IFR IN RAIN TUE EVENING ESPECIALLY MHT-BOS-HYA-                  
ACK...IMPROVING TO VFR OVERNIGHT. RAPIDLY DIMINISHING WINDS EXPECTED.           
OUTLOOK...WED THROUGH FRIDAY...                                                 
MAINLY VFR WED THROUGH FRI.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
QUIET DAY TODAY ON THE LOCAL WATERS WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.           
RELATIVELY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED.                                       
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN                 
MARKEDLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WENT WITH A GALE WARNING FOR ALL WATERS                
STARTING AT 06Z TO KEEP THINGS SIMPLE...ALTHOUGH GALES MAY NOT ARRIVE           
ON NORTHERN WATERS TIL A BIT LATER ON.                                          
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES EVEN MORE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. AFTER             
LOOKING OVER ALL THE AVAILABLE DATA...DECIDED TO GO WITH STRONG GALES           
ON ALL WATERS INSTEAD OF STORMS. HAVE ALLOWED GUST NR 50 KTS MERR RVR           
TO NEAR BOSTON HARBOR WATERS TUE AFTN. LOW LEVEL INVERSION CAN                  
INHIBIT BUT PRES GRAD AND TURB MXG MAY ALLOW FOR GST 50KTS....ESP               
MERR RIVER REGION.                                                              
HOWEVER...IT/S POSSIBLE THAT WINDS COULD BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER LATER             
TUESDAY...RESULTING IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MARGINAL STORM FORCE WINDS.            
SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS BUILD UP TO 15 FEET...WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED            
TO SEE 44008 AND 44018 TOP OUT BETWEEN 15 AND 20 FEET.                          
STRONGEST WINDS BY TUE EVENING WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN WATERS EAST OF            
CAPE ANN TO CAPE COD WHERE STRONG SE GALES LIKELY INVOF LLJ.  GUSTS             
TO 45 KT POSSIBLE.  WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SW AND DECREASE AS OCCLUSION            
MOVES THROUGH.  THIS WILL HAPPEN BY TUE EVENING OVER THE WESTERN                
WATERS AND AROUND MIDNIGHT EASTERN WATERS.  SEAS UP TO 15 FEET OUTER            
EASTERN WATERS TUE NIGHT.                                                       
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...                                       
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY BELOW SCA LEVELS WED THROUGH FRI...MOSTLY FROM             
A WESTERLY DIRECTION.  A PERIOD OF EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED WED OVER             
THE EASTERN WATERS.  HIGH SEAS WILL PERSIST OVER THE OUTER WATERS               
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
MA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON             
     FOR MAZ005>007-014>016.                                                    
NH...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON             
     FOR NHZ012.                                                                
RI...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230>237-250-         
     254-255.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/EKSTER                                                          
NEAR TERM...DRAG/EKSTER                                                         
SHORT TERM...DRAG/EKSTER                                                        
LONG TERM...KJC                                                                 
AVIATION...KJC/NMB                                                              
MARINE...KJC/DRAG/EKSTER                                                        
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
1258 AM EST MON NOV 24 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OFFSHORE ALLOWING OUR                    
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS TO MODERATE. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP               
TO OUR WEST ON MONDAY...AND THEN REFORM OVER OUR REGION BY                      
TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX WHICH COULD IMPACT                 
THANKSGIVING TRAVEL.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...                                         
AS OF 830 PM EST...MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY OVERSPREADING THE               
REGION FROM THE W...IN RESPONSE TO WEAKENING SHORTWAVE PASSING                  
THROUGH...AS WELL AS INTENSIFYING MID LEVEL WARM                                
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE RUC13 DEPICTS THIS MOISTURE RATHER               
WELL...ESP AROUND 700 MB...AND ALSO INDICATES THAT THE ASSOCIATED               
CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE N/E WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.                   
THUS...WE HAVE INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING              
HOURS...AND ALSO HAVE SLOWED THE TEMP FALL OVERNIGHT...AS TEMPS                 
SHOULD HOLD NEARLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE THICKEST MID              
LEVEL CLOUDS PASS THROUGH. THE TEMPS SHOULD ACCELERATE DOWNWARD ONCE            
AGAIN JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK...AS SOME BREAKS DEVELOP...ESP FROM                
ALBANY SOUTH AND WEST. THEREFORE...WE HAVE NOT CHANGED THE EXPECTED             
MIN TEMPS MUCH...JUST THE TEMP CURVE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.                  
OTHERWISE...SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS             
EXTREME NORTHERN HERKIMER/NW HAMILTON COS OVER THE NEXT FEW                     
HOURS...AS LATEST KTYX RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME WEAK                        
REFLECTIVITIES BRUSHING THIS REGION. HOWEVER...AS LOW LEVEL FLOW                
CONTINUES TO BACK...AND MID LEVEL FORCING DIMINISHES...SO SHOULD                
THREAT OF ANY SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.                                      
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                            
UPPER SYSTEM DROPPING OUT OF CANADA AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES                 
WILL STRENGTHEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND WARM                 
ADVECTION...SO EVEN WITH INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS THROUGH                 
THE DAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE 30S TO MID 40S                
FOR HIGHS. MONDAY NIGHT...ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AND                         
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INCREASES SUPPORTING PRECIPITATION SPREADING              
ACROSS THE REGION. GENERAL CONSENSUS FROM MOST SOURCES OF                       
GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES SUGGEST AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY COULD                
SEE MOSTLY SNOW MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE                
HUDSON VALLEY COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW/MIX BEFORE CHANGING              
TO A COLD RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE RAPID WARMING ALOFT...SOME              
AREAS COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AROUND                          
SUNRISE...BEFORE SURFACE TEMPERATURES CAN RESPOND TO THE WARM                   
ADVECTION LATER IN THE MORNING. HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE GREENS                 
AND BERKSHIRES COULD SEE A DECENT PERIOD OF SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AS                
WELL. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S TO MID 30S...AND MAY                 
OCCUR DURING THE EVENING WHEN PRECIPITATION BEGINS AND                          
TEMPERATURES FALL A BIT TOWARD WET BULBS...THEN COULD RISE A                    
COUPLE/FEW DEGREES TOWARD SUNRISE.                                              
     ...........                                                                
ADDED AT 434 PM...                                                              
TEXT FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NORNING WILL INDICATE                
QUITE THE MIX AND TRANSITION OF PRECIPITATION TYPES IN SOME                     
AREAS...BUT VARIOUS PRECIPITATION TYPES SHOULD BE OBSERVED AT                   
DIFFERENT ELEVATION LEVELS...AND BE CHANGABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND             
MORNING.  COLD GROUND COULD CONTRIBUTE TO OBSERVATIONS OF FREEZING              
RAIN AS WELL.  SUGGESTING 2-4" OF SNOW IN SOME OF THE ADIRONDACKS               
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AND 3-6" IN OTHER PARTS OF THE                           
ADIRONDACKS...JUST AS A STARTING POINT...AS AMOUNTS WILL CERTAINLY              
NEED TO BE ADJUSTED ONE WAY OR ANOTHER AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER.                
     ...........                                                                
ON TUESDAY...SCREAMING H8 JET BLASTS QUICKLY THROUGH NEW ENGLAND                
AND HEADS INTO CANADA BY LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MUCH OF THE              
STRONG WINDS SHOULD NOT MIX TO THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...IN THE HIGHER             
ELEVATIONS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND BERKSHIRES SHOULD SEE SOME                
HIGH WIND GUSTS...AND MAY ENTERTAIN WIND ADVISORIES AS THE EVENT                
GETS CLOSER. SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE NORTHERN CATSKILLS AND                 
ADIRONDACKS...WITH SOME POTENTIAL MIXING WITH RAIN...AND HIGHS IN               
THE MID 30S. OTHERWISE...MOST AREAS WILL SEE A COLD RAIN TUESDAY                
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.                                         
THE UPPER LOW SLOWS AND DRIFTS NORTH AND WEST OF OUR REGION LATER               
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIND ANOMALIES (-4 SD TO -6 SD U WIND                
ANOMALIES AT 850 MB AND -2.5 SD TO -3.5 SD AT 250 MB) STILL                     
SUGGEST A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WITH STRONG FORCING FOR A PROLONGED                
PERIOD OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION...BUT GUIDANCE SOURCES SEEM TO LIFT               
THE UPPER LOW INTO CANADA FAIRLY QUICKLY. STRONGEST FORCING NOW                 
LOOKS TO BE IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND POINTS NORTH AND EAST.                  
BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT NOT AS STRONG AS SOME SIMILAR                   
HISTORICAL STORMS...AND LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM ATLANTIC AS                 
GULF OF MEXICO LARGELY CUT OFF FROM THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH UPPER                
JET AND MOISTURE PLUME SEEN ALOFT. SO THIS STORM MAY HAVE MUCH                  
MORE OF AN IMPACT OUTSIDE OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT STILL                         
RESPECTABLE SNOWS SHOULD BE OBSERVED IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITHIN                
OUR FORECAST AREA.                                                              
THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT AS UPPER LOW GRADUALLY DRIFTS INTO                      
CANADA...DEEP WEST FLOW TAKES OVER...AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE                  
LIMITED TO SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION.              
PROXIMITY OF UPPER LOW SUGGESTS KEEPING CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS                
EVERYWHERE TUESDAY NIGHT AND RAIN/SNOWSHOWERS WEDNESDAY...WITH                  
BEST CHANCES IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK                 
VALLEY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT MID 20S IN MOUNTAINS TO AROUND OR A                  
LITTLE BELOW FREEZING ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY 30S MOUNTAINS AND              
AROUND 40 TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.                                               
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                  
SIDED WITH MOS GUIDANCE.  THE GFS REMAINS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE              
ECMWF AT LIFTING THE VERTICALLY STACKED THANKSGIVING STORM OUT OF               
THE AREA...BUT BOTH TRACK IT UP TO THE NORTH AND WEST AT A FAIRLY               
GOOD CLIP BY FRIDAY.  THE SYNOPTIC EVENT WILL BE OVER WITH AT THE               
START OF THANKSGIVING DAY...BUT LAKE EFFECT WILL COMMENCE ON ITS                
HEELS...AS THE VERTICAL PROFILE OF THE ENSUING WESTERLY FLOW ON THE             
BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS LOW ON SHEAR COMPARED WITH                      
SATURDAY`S MODELS.  THE LAKE EFFECT WILL PROBABLY BE A FAIRLY                   
WELL-CONFINED BAND AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS...            
AND THIS WILL PROBABLY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND MUCH OF THE                  
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WHEN THE WESTERLY FLOW BREAKS DOWN...AS DOES            
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.                                                      
FOR NOW...HAVE CHC THROUGH MOST OF THE ADIRONDACKS PORTION OF OUR               
CWA FOR THE OVERNIGHT WED...WITH CHC ALL BUT SOUTHERNMOST CWA DURING            
THE HEIGHT OF TURKEY DAY...ALTHOUGH FLURRIES MAY LIKELY BE ALL                  
THAT`S HAD AT MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE THE BELT.  THE WEAKENING COLD              
FRONT MAY SET OFF SOME MORE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AGAIN IN THE                      
WELL-MOISTENED ADIRONDACKS...SO HAVE CHC MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF               
THE CAPITAL REGION FRI AND FRI NGT...CHIEFLY UPSLOPE REGIONS                    
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN DEEPENS AND TRACKS EAST              
TO THE DEEP SOUTH...THEN UP THE COAST.  BOTH MODELS HAVE IT NEAR                
CAPE COD SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SIMILAR CIRCULATION PATTERNS BETWEEN             
THE SURFACE AND 500 MB...SO HAVE CHC -RA/-SN SAT NGT...THEN BACK TO             
A LAKE EFFECT FLOW FOR SUNDAY.                                                  
TEMPERATURES SHOW LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION IN PATTERN UNTIL                  
SUNDAY...WHEN THE DEPARTING LOW DRAWS IN MORE COLDER AIR ACROSS THE             
CWA.  MERCURIES SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM GETTING TO 40 DEGREES EACH               
DAY IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.  LOWS IN THE 20S WITH SOME ADIRONDACK                 
UPPER TEENS EACH NIGHT BECOME LOWS MOSTLY AROUND 20 SUNDAY NIGHT...             
WITH SOME LOW TO MID TEENS IN THE ADIRONDACKS.  THE MEX MOS VALUES              
ARE PRETTY CLOSE TO THE FCST VALUES...WITH THE MODEL EFFECTIVELY                
RECOGNIZING THE COLDER TEMPERATURES AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED PRIOR TO 00Z/TUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE                 
MOVING EASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE A COMPLEX STORM              
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE MIDWEST AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY MONDAY             
NIGHT THRU TUESDAY.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING              
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER               
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT               
00Z/TUE TO 06Z/TUE...WITH RAIN AND SNOW MOVING IN FOR ERN NY.                   
CIGS/VSBYS WILL RAPIDLY ERODE TO AT LEAST MVFR LEVELS EARLY MONDAY              
EVENING.                                                                        
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE S/SE AROUND 5 KTS THIS                         
MORNING...BUT INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON.  THE                       
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS AT KALB MONDAY EVENING                
WITH A FEW GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KTS.  AT KGFL...AND KPOU WITH A                    
STRONGER LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE...THE WINDS WILL BE IN THE 4-7            
KT RANGE.  A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET /AROUND 2-2.5 KFT AGL/ WILL MOVE              
OVER THE REGION AFTER 06Z/TUE...SO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR GROUPS WILL             
LIKELY NEED TO BE ADDED LATER TUESDAY MORNING.                                  
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
MON NIGHT-TUE...MVFR/IFR. -RA...CHC -SN. LLWS LIKELY.                           
WED-THU...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-SHSN.                                            
FRI...VFR...NO SIG WX.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
NO HYDROLOGY PROBLEMS THROUGH MONDAY AS IT WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY               
WITH ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING AS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.                           
A COMPLEX STORM WILL LIKELY BRING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO THE              
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN            
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION TAKING THE                
FORM OF WIDELY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW                    
SHOWERS. MIXED PCPN LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH MAINLY               
SNOW OVER HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...MAINLY RAIN IN             
THE HUDSON VALLEY...AND ABOUT 50-50 MIX OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST            
OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.                                                           
MANY AREAS COULD SEE COULD SEE A TOTAL OF A HALF TO THREE                       
QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION...MAINLY RAIN BY LATE                      
TUESDAY. SOME PARTS OF THE CATSKILLS...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES                  
COULD SEE LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL...AN INCH OR MORE.                           
AT THIS POINT...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE FLOODING WILL BE A PROBLEM                
ASIDE FROM PAVED AREAS WHERE DRAINAGE MAY BE BLOCKED BY PILES OF                
SNOW OR DEBRIS. HOWEVER A POTENTIAL EXISTS THAT THE STORM COULD                 
BRING MORE RAIN THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.                                        
FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC                
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.                                
&&                                                                              
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
MA...NONE.                                                                      
VT...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...NAS                                                                  
NEAR TERM...KL                                                                  
SHORT TERM...NAS                                                                
LONG TERM...HELLER                                                              
AVIATION...TAW                                                                  
HYDROLOGY...NAS                                                                 
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
300 PM EST MON NOV 24 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING A NOW HIGHLY AMPLIFIED              
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. MAIN FEATURE OF NOTE IS               
A SHARP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW PUSHING EAST OF THE MS VALLEY.               
INITIAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS DROPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN MS VALLEY                
AND REMAINS WELL DEFINED ON WV IMAGERY WITH MARKED DRYING IN ITS                
WAKE EXPANDING ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION. ANOTHER STRONG PIECE OF              
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS DIVING SOUTH OUT OF WESTERN ONTARIO INTO THE              
GREAT LAKES. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 12-18            
HOURS INTO AN ENERGETIC UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES            
AND SOUTHWARD TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS TROUGH            
WE FIND LONGWAVE RIDGING OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND ALONG THE             
EAST COAST. SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE FEED IS ALSO SEEN MOVING                   
NORTHEAST ACROSS MEXICO AND TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.                     
LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS IS COMBINING            
WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND VIGOROUS WWA IN THE LOWER LEVELS             
TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LA TO THE TN AND             
OHIO VALLEYS. THIS MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORM WILL BE                       
APPROACHING OUR WESTERN ZONES OF SOUTHEAST AL AND THE FLORIDA                   
PANHANDLE DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE EVENING HOURS.                            
IN THE LOWER LEVELS...SURFACE RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN IN CONTROL OF               
THE REGION IS WEAKENING AND RAPIDLY MOVING SOUTH AND EAST LATE THIS             
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM TO OUR NORTHWEST AND             
ASSOCIATED APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED            
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY AND            
THEN SOUTHWEST TO LA. A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA INTO              
THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE MAIN BAND OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS                    
OVERSPREADS FROM THE WEST.                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...                                
THERE REMAINS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL SUITES AS TO THE              
EVOLUTION OF THE APPROACHING FRONT AND THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS FROM            
THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. 850MB THETA-E RIDGE AND                      
ASSOCIATED FORCED ASCENT WILL BE ARRIVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA                    
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA EARLY THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH A                  
STRAY SHOWER OR SPRINKLE IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE OVER THIS AREA DURING            
THE REMAINING AFTERNOON HOURS...THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF            
UNTIL AROUND SUNSET AND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SURFACE                      
INSTABILITY IS EXTREMELY LIMITED WITH SREF PROBS OF EVEN 500 J/KG               
HOLDING BELOW 5% OVER LAND. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE               
THAT WE WILL INITIALLY SEE SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALOFT OVER THE             
WESTERN ZONES AS SHOWALTER INDICES APPROACH ZERO. WITH THIS IN MIND             
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO GET A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WITH THE BAND            
OF SHOWERS.                                                                     
COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO STEADILY PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE               
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EXIT THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND NEAR OR                  
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. INITIAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO SHEAR             
OUT RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW ORGANIZES WELL TO            
THE NORTH. AS THIS OCCURS THE LARGE SCALE LIFT OVERHEAD ALL BUT                 
COLLAPSES. MOISTURE AXIS BECOMES RATHER STRUNG OUT INTO THE EASTERN             
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND SHOULD                 
EXPECT A RATHER SOLID LINE OF RAIN/EMBEDDED STORMS OVER THE WEST                
THIS EVENING TO WEAKEN AND THIN OUT AS IT MOVES EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.            
CURRENT FORECAST POPS SHOWING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL VALUES OVER THE             
EASTERN FL PANHANDLE/SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST                
GEORGIA THIS EVENING. THESE POPS TAPER TO ONLY LOW END CHANCE                   
VALUES AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES APPROACHING THE              
SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY. SHOWALTER INDICES SHOW A LESSENING OF THE                
ELEVATED INSTABILITY INTO OUR EASTERN ZONES AND WILL NOT BRING                  
THUNDER MENTION EAST OF THE APALACHICOLA RIVER. THIS IS SHAPING UP              
TO BE A HIGH POP/LOW IMPACT EVENT...MEANING THAT ALTHOUGH MANY                  
LOCATIONS WILL SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAINFALL TONIGHT...THE DURATION            
IS LIKELY TO BE SHORT AND RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY ON THE               
LIGHT SIDE. IN FACT...AS THE OVERALL DYNAMICS CONTINUE TO COLLAPSE              
DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS...FAR EASTERN AREA FROM VALDOSTA INTO               
THE EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND MAY ONLY SEE A QUICK LINE OF BROKEN                
SHOWERS PASS THROUGH WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION.               
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BIG BEND                
AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW WITH CLOUDS RAPIDLY DECREASING                          
THROUGH THE MORNING. EXPECTING A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON               
ALMOST REGION-WIDE WITH A GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND AND HIGH                
TEMPS WARMING FROM EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE 40S UP INTO THE 60S.               
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS IN THE                  
VICINITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE HIGH SETTLING OVERHEAD               
AND WITH VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE...EXPECTING A GOOD                     
RADIATIONAL COOLING EVENT RESULTING IN YET ANOTHER COLD MORNING.                
ASSUMING SURFACE WINDS CAN DROP TO CALM (WHICH APPEARS QUITE LIKELY             
WITH THE FORECAST HIGH POSITION) MANY NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS                 
UNDER RADIATIONAL COOLING LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT WITHIN A FEW DEGREES               
EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE ADDED PATCHY              
FROST TO ALL AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST DURING THIS TIME AS            
FROST CAN TAKE HOLD AT GROUND LEVEL EVEN WITH 2 METER TEMPS HOLDING             
IN THE MIDDLE 30S. A PLEASANT FALL DAY EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY WITH              
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. MAY SEE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL                         
CIRRUS...ESPECIALLY LATE...TO FILTER THE SUN AS GFS/ECMWF SHOWING A             
WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHING IN THE FAST UPPER LEVEL FLOW. HIGHS                
GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S. WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE STILL IN                    
PROXIMITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY ONCE AGAIN SEE A FEW AREAS APPROACH               
FREEZING LATE. BEST CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO SEE FROST WILL BE                
ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SANDIER            
SOILS OF THE BIG BEND. THIS IS A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST THAN ON              
TUESDAY NIGHT AS ANY CIRRUS POSSIBLY STILL OVERHEAD WOULD BE ENOUGH             
TO DISRUPT THE RADIATIONAL COOLING PROCESS AND KEEP TEMPS UP A FEW              
EXTRA DEGREES.                                                                  
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY).                                         
CONTINUED AMPLIFIED AND FAST MOVING PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS            
IS STILL INDICATED THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH                
PRESSURE AND FLAT FLOW ALOFT WILL CREATE A PLEASANT THANKSGIVING                
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE AN APPROACHING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE                 
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES BEGINS TO SPREAD EASTWARD                  
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SOLUTION HAS BEEN GAINING SUPPORT BETWEEN THE            
GFS AND EURO...AND THE LATEST RUNS OF THESE MODELS CONTINUE TO                  
SUPPORT THIS DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM. IT APPEARS THAT A DEEPENING               
SHORT WAVE (ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF MANY) DROPPING OUT OF THE GREAT              
LAKES STATES ON FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING WILL HELP PULL THE                
SURFACE WAVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE APPALACHIAN FOOTHILLS AND UP THE            
EAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD               
FRONT PUSHING INTO OUR REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GOOD CHANCES              
OF RAIN EXPECTED. THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM HAS DECENT CONSISTENCY              
BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EURO...AS WELL AS MANY OF THE GFS               
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HOW QUICKLY                
THIS SYSTEM WILL GET THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER...IF THE FRONTAL               
SYSTEM HOLDS UP OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...IT WON`T              
REMAIN THERE FOR LONG AS THE OVERALL EAST COAST TROF DEEPENS MORE               
AND ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY SHOULD CLEAR OUR REGION OUT BY THE FIRST            
OF THE WEEK.                                                                    
MAX TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD              
SHOULD GENERALLY BE AT OR JUST ABOVE CLIMO. A COOL DOWN BEHIND THE              
FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT PASSES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL DROP MAX TEMPS             
BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S BY MONDAY. MIN TEMPS...ASIDE FROM A LIGHT               
FREEZE ON THURSDAY MORNING WILL WARM EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AND              
BE ABOVE NORMAL THESE LAST TWO DAYS. COOLER MINS RETURN BEHIND THE              
FRONT BY MONDAY MORNING.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND SLIDES SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING ALLOWING                
WINDS TO COME AROUND TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS              
THE WATERS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY                   
MORNING HOURS WITH A SHARP WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH.              
WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS. A            
BRIEF PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IS POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY                   
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN LEGS AND THIS POTENTIAL WILL              
NEED TO BE MONITORED THIS EVENING. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN                   
ELEVATED NEAR CAUTIONARY LEVELS INTO TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL                
THEN RAPIDLY DIMINISH INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF WEDNESDAY AS                   
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THIS            
HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE FORECAST WATERS PROVIDING LIGHT              
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO                
APPROACH FROM THE WEST FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CIGS (AROUND 9K FT) WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN                 
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHRA WILL AFFECT KDHN BY THIS EVENING...THEN            
THE REST OF THE TERMINALS TONIGHT. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL NOT IMPACT             
CIGS OR VIS...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE             
IN ISOLATED +SHRA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD                
FRONT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY DECREASING                   
CLOUDS. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 KT (GUSTS TO 20 KT) ARE EXPECTED BY               
MID TO LATE TUESDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH UNLIMITED CIGS AND VIS.                
KTLH RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A FIRE (AND SMOKE PLUME) 16 NM                     
SOUTHWEST OF KTLH. SO FAR THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN                
ADVECTING THE SMOKE OVER THE TERMINAL...BUT WE WILL WATCH THIS                  
CLOSELY FOR VIS IMPACTS.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
A COLD FRONT WILL USHER DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. THE                  
COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE DRY AIRMASS WILL DRIVE                   
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON                
ACROSS OUR FL ZONES. HIGH DISPERSION VALUES ARE ALSO EXPECTED. THE              
HUMIDITY MAY BRIEFLY DROP BELOW 25 PERCENT IN OUR GA AND AL                     
ZONES...BUT NOT LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WARNING. RED FLAG                      
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.                          
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  47  66  32  65  33 /  60   0   0   0   0                           
PANAMA CITY  49  66  39  66  45 /  70   0   0   0   0                           
DOTHAN       43  63  34  65  39 /  80   0   0   0   0                           
ALBANY       43  62  31  65  34 /  70   0   0   0   0                           
VALDOSTA     46  64  32  65  33 /  50  05   0   0   0                           
CROSS CITY   51  69  32  68  32 /  30  15   0   0   0                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 12 PM EST /11 AM CST/ TO 6 PM EST /5 PM              
     CST/ TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...                     
     COASTAL WALTON...DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...                      
     HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...                
     LEON...LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.                  
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER                                                
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE...MROCZKA                                            
LONG TERM...GODSEY                                                              
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
945 AM EST MON NOV 24 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
14Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING AN AMPLIFYING UPPER                 
LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THIS MORNING. MAIN FEATURE OF                
NOTE IS A SHARPENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE MID-SECTION              
OF THE COUNTY/MS VALLEY. INITIAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY DROPPING            
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/MS VALLEY IS WELL DEFINED ON WV IMAGERY                
WITH MARKED DRYING IN ITS WAKE EXPANDING ACROSS OK AND MO. ANOTHER              
STRONG PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS DIVING SOUTH OUT OF WESTERN               
ONTARIO INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL CONSOLIDATE               
OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS INTO AN ENERGETIC UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE             
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHWARD TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ON                  
EITHER SIDE OF THIS TROUGH WE FIND LONGWAVE RIDING ALONG BOTH THE               
EAST AND WEST COASTS. SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE FEED IS ALSO SEEN                
MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN MS VALLEY. LARGE               
SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS IS COMBINING WITH             
THIS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND VIGOROUS WWA IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO               
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO              
THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS.                                                 
IN THE LOWER LEVELS...SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE CAROLINA COAST                   
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SLIDE               
EAST THROUGH THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM TO OUR                
NORTHWEST AND ASSOCIATED APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS                
CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN               
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN MS VALLEY.                               
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO                    
APPROACH THROUGH THE DAY WILL EXPECT THE CLOUDS ALREADY IN PLACE                
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND            
EASTWARD. HOWEVER THIS MAY BE A SLOWER PROCESS THE FURTHER EAST ONE             
GETS AND STILL EXPECT TO SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN WELL INTO THE                   
AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BIG BEND FROM PERRY TO CROSS CITY.              
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL SUITES AS TO THE EVOLUTION OF               
THIS FRONT AND THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS THIS EVENING INTO EARLY                 
TUESDAY MORNING. 850MB THETA-E RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED FORCED ASCENT               
DOES NOT ARRIVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/SOUTHEAST ALABAMA UNTIL            
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER             
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT OVER THIS AREA DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE                 
AFTERNOON HOURS...THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF TILL NEAR                
DARK AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SURFACE INSTABILITY IS EXTREMELY               
LIMITED WITH SREF PROBS OF EVEN 500 J/KG HOLDING BELOW 5% OVER LAND.            
HOWEVER...THERE IS INITIALLY SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALOFT PROGGED            
BY GUIDANCE AS SHOWALTER INDICES APPROACH ZERO OVER THE WESTERN                 
ZONES DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WITH THIS IN MIND WOULD NOT BE                  
SURPRISED TO GET A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WITH THE BAND OF                      
SHOWERS...HOWEVER ANY STRONG STORM POTENTIAL APPEAR VERY UNLIKELY.              
COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO STEADILY PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE               
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EXIT THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND NEAR OR                  
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING. INITIAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS              
PROGGED TO SHEAR OUT RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE MAIN TROUGH                
ORGANIZES WELL TO THE NORTH. AS THIS OCCURS THE LARGE SCALE LIFT                
OVERHEAD ALL BUT COLLAPSES. MOISTURE AXIS BECOMES RATHER STRUNG OUT             
INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST ARE AS WELL. WITH ALL THIS IN             
MIND SHOULD EXPECT A RATHER SOLID LINE OF RAIN/EMBEDDED STORMS OVER             
THE WEST THIS EVENING TO WEAK AND THIN OUT AS IT MOVES EAST AFTER               
MIDNIGHT. SHOWALTER INDICES SHOW A LESSENING OF THE ELEVATED                    
INSTABILITY INTO OUR EASTERN ZONES AND WILL NOT BRING THUNDER                   
MENTION EAST OF THE APALACHICOLA RIVER. FAR EASTERN AREA FROM                   
VALDOSTA INTO THE EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND MAY ONLY SEE A QUICK                 
LINE OF LIGHTER SHOWERS PASS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH VERY LITTLE              
IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION.                                                     
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BIG BEND                
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH CLOUDS RAPIDLY DECREASING THROUGH THE                
MORNING. EXPECTING A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON ALMOST                    
REGION-WIDE WITH A GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND AND HIGH TEMPS IN              
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND SLIDES EAST INTO THIS EVENING ALLOWING                
WINDS TO COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH LATER                
TODAY. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT WITH             
A SHARP WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. WINDS WILL INCREASE             
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS WITH A PERIOD OF                  
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY                 
FLOW WILL REMAIN ELEVATED NEAR CAUTIONARY LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY                
NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN RAPIDLY DIMINISH INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS                 
WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF               
OF MEXICO. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE FORECAST WATERS              
PROVIDING LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT                 
SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE               
UPCOMING WEEKEND.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CIGS (6-12K FT) WILL INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TODAY             
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER             
FROM EAST-SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT WILL REMAIN               
LESS THAN 10 KT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA WILL AFFECT KDHN BY LATE            
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...THEN THE REST OF THE TERMINALS TONIGHT.            
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VIS/CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE SHRA.                  
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  68  44  65  31  63 /  20  50  00  00  00                           
PANAMA CITY  69  48  64  34  64 /  40  60  00  00  00                           
DOTHAN       66  41  63  31  62 /  50  60  00  00  00                           
ALBANY       65  42  62  31  59 /  30  60  00  00  00                           
VALDOSTA     69  43  64  31  63 /  10  50  00  00  00                           
CROSS CITY   72  48  65  31  65 /  10  30  05  00  00                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...FIRE WX WATCH TUE AFTN ALL ZONES.                                          
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...FOURNIER                                                             
SYNOPSIS/UPDATE/MARINE...MROCZKA                                                
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL                                               
1242 AM EST MON NOV 24 2008                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND                
THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS IN THE VICINITY OF              
THE BAHAMAS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. AROUND 10Z ITS POSSIBLE TO HAVE              
VCSH FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS. OTHERWISE STRATOCU FROM 5 TO 7               
KFT WILL STREAM IN OFF THE ATLANTIC WATERS THE REMAINDER OF THE                 
EARLY MORNING HOURS. A WEAK LAND BREEZE IS POSSIBLE FOR THE EAST                
COAST TERMINALS...MORE LIKELY FOR KMIA...KOPF AND KTMB. THE EAST                
COAST TERMINALS WILL LIKELY HAVE AN EASTERLY SEA BREEZE NEAR 12                 
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.                                                           
60                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 955 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2008/                         
UPDATE...ON A MINOR TWEAK TO THE WINDS NEEDED THIS EVENING TO                   
REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS, HOWEVER THAT MAINLY AFFECTED THE BAY AND ATLANTIC       
ZONES. ALL OTHER ELEMENTS UNCHANGED AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST                    
REMAINS ON TARGET. /TINGLER                                                     
MARINE...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW WINDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC                   
ZONES REMAINING MARGINAL FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, AND INDEED                 
FOWEY HAS BEEN AT 20 TO 23 KNOTS THIS EVENING FOR THE PAST FEW                  
HOURS. SO, HAVE DECIDED TO PLAY IT SAFE AND KEEP THE SCA GOING                  
THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR THE BAY AND ATLANTIC ZONES. ADDED THE BAY                 
SINCE EASTERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE CENTRAL SECTIONS. THE MIAMI-               
DADE AND BROWARD COASTAL WATERS WILL THE ZONES MOST AFFECTED SINCE              
THE GRADIENT IS TIGHTER TO THE SOUTH, HOWEVER ALSO KEPT THE PALM BEACH          
WATERS IN AS WELL DUE TO A RECENT SHIP REPORT OF 20KTS. /TINGLER                
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 720 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2008/                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS ALL SOUTH FLORIDA TERMINALS                  
THIS FORECAST CYCLE...WITH THE PRIMARY CONCERN BEING WINDS. ALL                 
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS THAT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND                      
RESULTING ENE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT...                 
WHICH MAY BE THE KEY FACTOR IN DEVELOPMENT OF A LAND BREEZE. AT                 
THIS TIME...WILL INDICATE NO LAND BREEZE AT PBI/FLL...AS EASTERLY               
FLOW SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO PREVENT A PENETRATION THIS                
CLOSE TO THE COAST. HOWEVER...AT TERMINALS FURTHER INLAND...WILL                
INDICATE WINDS BACKING TO NNW AND DECREASING IN THE PREDAWN HOURS               
ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHTER AND FROM THE NE OVERNIGHT AT               
KAPF...WITH ESE FLOW OF 8-12 KNOTS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS                    
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE...CLOUD CONDS OF FEW050/SCT070              
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND ENOUGH THREAT FOR SHRA TO                 
INCLUDE VCSH ALONG THE EAST COAST OVERNIGHT.                                    
MANY THANKS TO ZMA CWSU FOR EXCELLENT THOUGHTS AND INPUT FOR THIS               
FORECAST.                                                                       
70/DD                                                                           
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC                 
COAST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...RESULTING IN OUR PREVAILING WINDS                
TURNING MORE EASTERLY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY...THOUGH                 
BELIEVE THE GFS/NAM ARE A BIT TOO BULLISH ON THIS. KEPT SLIGHT                  
CHANCE POPS NEXT FEW DAYS FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST...BUT OTHERWISE                
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.                                     
MOST CHALLENGING PART OF THE FCST IS AGAIN ON THE LAND BREEZE AND               
ITS EFFECTS ON TEMPS AGAIN TONIGHT...AND MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL.                  
GFS/NAM AND EVEN THE WRF DO NOT SHOW THE LAND BREEZE DEVELOPING                 
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE PATTERN IS NOT CHANGING MUCH AND SO WE                   
BELIEVE IT WILL OCCUR. THE NAM/WRF LOOK WAY TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH                 
WINDS OVERNIGHT...AND THEY START THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LAND                    
BREEZE EARLY ON BEFORE THE WINDS SURGE TAKES OVER SWITCHING WINDS               
BACK NE. SINCE THIS SURGE LOOKS TO AGGRESSIVE...DECIDED TO                      
DISCOUNT THIS. GIVEN THE FACT THAT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IS                  
AGAIN EXPECTED IN A STILL RATHER DRY AIRMASS...DECIDED TO BRING                 
THE LAND BREEZE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS AGAIN                 
TONIGHT...BUT NOT QUITE TO THE COAST...REASON BEING THAT IT MADE                
IT TO THE COAST JUST FOR AN HOUR THIS MORNING...AND ANY SLIGHT                  
INCREASE IN THE NE-E WIND OVERNIGHT WOULD HOLD IT AT BAY. SHOULD                
MENTION THAT THE RUC IS ACTUALLY FOLLOWING RIGHT ALONG WITH OUR                 
EXPECTATIONS TONIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT THE FCST ON THE LAND BREEZE               
HAS IS WITH REGARDS TO TEMPS...AS IT CAN FLUCTUATE 5-10F DEGREES                
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...AS SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW                      
MORNING`S.                                                                      
KEPT PATCHY FOG IN THE FCST TONIGHT AND MON NIGHT. MON NIGHT LOOKS              
TO BE MOST OPTIMAL...AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.                             
GFS/ECMWF STILL SHOW THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY              
NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING BY ON                 
TUESDAY. AFTER TEMPS WARM FINALLY TO NEAR 80 AHEAD OF THE FRONT                 
TUESDAY...A SLIGHT COOL DOWN WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE                 
FRONT. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED...SO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS                  
ANTICIPATED.                                                                    
MADE NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FCST. THE DRY NOVEMBER WEATHER                  
PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A GRADUAL WARMING                
TREND LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH YET ANOTHER                 
COLD FRONT EXPECTED EITHER SUNDAY OR MONDAY...DEPENDING ON THE                  
MODEL...AND JUST TOO EARLY TO TELL AT THIS POINT IN TIME...BUT THE              
PARADE OF FRONTS LOOK TO CONTINUE.                                              
MARINE...DECIDED TO EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE                     
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS GULF STREAM SEAS WILL                 
LIKELY NOT START SUBSIDING UNTIL LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT DUE TO              
THE FACT THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM A MORE NE DIRECTION BEFORE                 
BECOMING EASTERLY LATER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...WINDS OVER THE NEXT                
FEW DAYS WILL SLACKEN LEADING TO IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS. THE               
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...SWITCHING                
WINDS TO W-NW...AND THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE                  
AREA TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING...WITH A BRIEF WIND SURGE                 
EXPECTED BEHIND IT...BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONLY 15-20 KT AND NOT                
TOO PROLONGED.                                                                  
FIRE WEATHER...RH`S HAVE BEEN DOWN AGAIN TO NEAR 40 PERCENT AS                  
SOME DRY AIR HAS MIXED DOWN. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE JUST A TAD                  
ON MONDAY. SLIGHT DRYING IS EXPECTED TUESDAY BEHIND A PRE-FRONTAL               
TROUGH...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE DRY ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO RESULT               
IN CRITICAL RH`S. HOWEVER...WILL MONITOR TRENDS...BECAUSE TUE WILL              
BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...AND IF MORE DRYING OCCURS BETWEEN              
THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT...THEN RH`S COULD              
FALL LOWER THAN FCST. THE DRIEST AIR WILL ADVECT IN ACROSS THE                  
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. TRENDED DEW POINTS/RH`S                     
DOWN...THOUGH NOT AS LOW AS THE NAM AT THIS TIME...WHICH DROPS DEW              
POINTS TO THE LOWER 30S NW INTERIOR TO THE LOWER 40S SE. WE LIKELY              
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE A DECREASING TREND IN COMING FCSTS.                       
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WEST PALM BEACH  75  60  79  57 / 20 20 10 10                                   
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  62  79  61 / 20 20 10 10                                   
MIAMI            77  62  80  62 / 20 20 10 10                                   
NAPLES           76  61  77  57 / 10 10 10 10                                   
&&                                                                              
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ630-               
     AMZ650-AMZ651-AMZ670-AMZ671.                                               
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LONG TERM...15/JR                                                               
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...60/BD                                                     
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
539 PM CST MON NOV 24 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
258 PM CST                                                                      
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FCST. AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATLT IMAGERY               
SHOWS MID LVL CIRCULATION CENTER NOW OVR WRN LK SUPERIOR...DROPPING             
SSEWD. BY 12Z TUES...UPR LOW CENTER IS FCST TO BE OVR OH. LEADING               
EDGE OF ASSD VORT LOBE/JET MAX NOW DIVING SWD ACROSS SRN MN-WRN                 
WI WILL BE PASSING ACROSS FA THIS EVENING...BRINGING COLD                       
ADVECTION STRATOCU AND A FEW FLURRIES AS REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD               
AIR SWEEPS TROUGH MIDWEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEEPENING CYCLONE TO              
E. EXPECT CLOUDS TO GRUDGINLY ERODE FROM W-E DURG TUESDAY AS DEEP               
CLOSED SYSTEM LIFTS ENEWD TO WRN NY AND STRONG CYCLC FLOW BEGINS                
TO EASE. AGAIN...THIS WILL LIKELY BE A SLOW CLRG PROCESS AS BANDS               
OF CLOUDINESS CONTINUE TO ROTATE SWD ACROSS WRN GRTLKS TIL LATE IN              
THE DAY TUES. AS THIS VERTICALLY STACKED SYS SLOWLY RELAXES ITS                 
INFLUENCE WHILE SLOWLY SPINNING DOWN THRU MIDWEEK...SKIES OVR AREA              
WILL BE MAINLY CLR IN REGION OF INCRSG SUBSIDENCE/HGT RISES. LOW                
LVL ADVECTION DURING THIS PERIOD IS FCST TO REMAIN WEAK...SO NOT                
TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF MID/HI LVL CLOUDINESS EXPECTED. WITH LOW                 
SFC DEW POINTS...EXPECT DECENT DIURNAL SWINGS TUES-THURS DESPITE                
TIME OF YR. MOS NUMBERS DO A PRETTY GOOD JOB REFLECTING THIS                    
TREND...WITH COLD NIGHTS AND SLOW DAY-TO-DAY MODERATION IN HIGH                 
TEMPS...PEAKING THANKSGIVING DAY WHEN MAX/S SHOULD REACH WELL INTO              
40S. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...GFS BRINGS POSITIVELY TILTED                  
SHRT WAVE SEWD ACROSS PLAINS STATES...AND ACROSS MIDWEST. LLVLS                 
WILL REMIAN QUITE DRY WITH STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED ACROSS                 
DIXIE. GIVEN THIS AND THE LACK OF DYNAMICS...WILL KEEP FCST                     
DRY...BUT WITH INCR IN MID/HI LVL OVERCAST. SHEARED NATURE OF THIS              
TROF ALSO SUGGESTS LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHG AFTER WIND SHIFTS TO NW               
ON FRIDAY.                                                                      
WILL ALSO KEEP EXTENDED PORTIONS OF FCST /SAT-MON/ DRY. MODELS                  
AND HPC PROGNOSTICS HAVE SETTLED ON PATTERN EVOLVING BACK INTO ONE              
OF PERSISTENCE...WITH DEEP TROFFING OVER ERN CANADA AND THE                     
GRTLKS...WITH MOISTURE BEARING SYSTEM SHUNTED WELL TO S. AS A                   
RESULT HAVE TRENDED DRY WITH MINOR AMTS OF PRECIP GENERALLY                     
STAYING N OF AREA...FROM UPR GRTLKS SEWD IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO                 
UPR LOW. WILL ALSO GO WITH TREND OF TEMPS RUNNING A LTL BELOW                   
SEASONAL NORMS.                                                                 
MERZLOCK                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
539 PM CST                                                                      
0000 UTC TAFS...FOCUS THIS EVENING IS ON POTENTIAL FOR MVFR                     
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES LATER TONIGHT                    
AS PAIR OF STRONG MID LEVEL VORT MAXIMA ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS                     
FORECAST AREA. WINDS/GUSTS ALSO A CONCERN WITH STRENGTHENING                    
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION OVERNIGHT.                                             
EARLY EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES ONE AFOREMENTIONED VORT               
CENTER NOW OVER FAR NORTHWEST IL...AND ANOTHER DROPPING SOUTHWARD               
INTO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODELS HAVE SIMPLIFIED THESE INTO                
MORE OF A SINGULAR FEATURE...THOUGH 21Z RUC SEEMS TO HAVE CAPTURED              
THE DUAL/INDIVIDUAL NATURE BETTER. BASED ON SATELLITE/METAR TRENDS              
UPSTREAM AND RELYING ON RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL START OUT WITH              
VFR CEILINGS WHICH ARE SPREADING ACROSS AREA AT THIS TIME...AND                 
WILL MAINTAIN A TEMPO PERIOD LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT THOUGH                      
SLIGHTLY LATER TIMING FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS                 
WITH ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.                
UPSTREAM OBS INTO KMSP AREA INDICATE CEILINGS MAINLY VFR...                     
DROPPING TO MVFR IN 1500-2500 FOOT RANGE WITH VISIBILITY 3-P6SM IN              
SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS RELATIVELY SCATTERED IN NATURE...THOUGH              
WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING FOR ANY INCREASE IN               
COVERAGE OR DETERIORATION IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES. RUC INDICATES                   
SECOND VORT TRANSLATING SOUTHEAST OF AREA AFTER 09Z TIMEFRAME                   
WITH SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN MID LEVELS BRINGING THREAT OF PRECIP TO               
AN END LATER TONIGHT. WRF/GFS CONTINUE THIS TREND TUESDAY AS UPPER              
LOW PULLS SLOWLY OFF TO OUR EAST.                                               
SURFACE WINDS HAVE BACKED A BIT WESTERLY AND WEAKENED/DECOUPLED                 
AHEAD OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTION FROM INITIAL VORT MOVING                
INTO NORTHWEST IL. WILL LIKELY SEE A SLIGHT SHIFT MORE NORTHWEST                
IN NEXT FEW HOURS AS THIS TROUGH PROPAGATES ACROSS AREA...THEN                  
MORE SOLIDLY OVERNIGHT AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN WITH COLDER AIR                   
MOVING IN. WITH WEAKER LOW LEVEL STABILITY WILL LIKELY SEE SOME                 
GUSTINESS RETURN...INTO THE LOW 20 KNOT RANGE. THIS TO CONTINUE                 
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY               
DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE                  
EAST.                                                                           
RATZER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
154 PM CST                                                                      
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DEEPENS AS IT MOVES                   
SLOWLY EASY TO SOUTHERN LAKE HURON OVERNIGHT. RESULTING INCREASING              
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN                   
WINDS INCREASING TO GALE FORCE TONIGHT. ALREADY GUSTING TO AROUND               
25 KNOTS ON SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. WHILE THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO              
MOVE EAST TO THE UPPER ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BY TUESDAY NIGHT...IT                
WILL ALSO CONTINUE DEEPENING...KEEPING WINDS UP ON LAKE MICHIGAN                
THROUGH INTO THE MORNING BEFORE THEY START TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH                
AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GRADUALLY MOVES EAST AND REACHES THE                   
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. CURRENT ENDING TIME OF                   
GALE WARNING LIKELY EXTENDING TOO FAR INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL               
LEAVE AS IS FOR NOW. FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY AS THE LOW LIFTS                
NORTHWARD FROM THE ST. LAWRENCE TOWARD JAMES BAY THURSDAY AND                   
THURSDAY NIGHT.                                                                 
A LOW AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN               
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT WITH BACKING TO WEST AND VEERING TO                  
NORTHWEST...THEN REMAINING PREVAILING NORTHWEST AS A LARGE RIDGE                
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND CENTRAL                 
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A SURFACE CYCLONE OVER EASTERN HUDSON                  
BAY.                                                                            
TRS                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 6 P
     GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-           
     LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-                   
     LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 6 PM                       
     TUESDAY.                                                                   
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO BURNS HARBOR UNTIL     
     6 PM TUESDAY.                                                              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
553 AM CST MON NOV 24 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
307 AM CST                                                                      
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS WITH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD                      
PRECIPITATION TYPE AND WHETHER ANY OF THE POSSIBLE SNOW WILL                    
ACCUMULATE OVER MONDAY MORNINGS RUSH HOUR. THE NAMS WARMER                      
SOLUTION FROM YESTERDAY APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN THE WINNER WITH THIS               
EVENT AS THE SECONDARY SOUTHERN LOW HAS PROPAGATED INTO EASTERN                 
IOWA LEAVING OUR REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR THE TIME BEING.                  
WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE...THE LOW LEVEL                        
TEMPERATURE PROFILES HAVE BEEN WELL ABOVE FREEZING WITH AN ACARS                
SOUNDING OUT OF ORD SHOWING TEMPS UP TO 44F AT 4KFT. TEMPERATURES               
ACROSS THE REGION REALLY ARENT AS COLD AS YOU WOULD LIKE TO SEE                 
FOR A SNOW EVENT...WHICH IS MAINLY DUE TO FACT THAT THERE ISNT A                
STRONG HIGH TO OUR NORTH...RATHER ANOTHER SURFACE LOW THAT IS                   
BOGARTING ALL THE COLD AIR. SFC TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S              
BACK IN THE DAKOTAS AND 850MB TEMPS RANGE FROM 0 TO -2 FROM                     
DUBUQUE BACK TO FARGO. ALL IN ALL...FEEL AS THOUGH THIS DOESNT                  
HAVE THE BEST SETUP BUT WITH ENOUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND                     
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WRAPPING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS WEAK LOW                
THAT SOME VERY WET SNOW WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THIS                          
MORNING...PARTICULARLY FURTHER NORTH UP ALONG THE WISCONSIN                     
BORDER.                                                                         
A FEW OBS HAVE COME IN WITH UNKNOWN PRECIP...BUT THIS AND                       
EVERYWHERE ELSE IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA HAS                 
JUST BEEN RAIN SO FAR THIS MORNING. AS OF 3AM...MOST OF THE SNOW                
WAS CONFINED TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN UP TOWARD MSN AND WEST OF                    
THERE. WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT FOR ANY SNOW THIS MORNING FROM                   
12-15Z WORKING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL                 
KEEP SOME VERY MINOR TENTHS OF ACCUMULATION UP ALONG THE WI/IL                  
BORDER SINCE SOIL TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 30S WITH THE RECENT               
COLD SPELL WE HAVE BEEN UNDER MOST OF NOVEMBER. SNOW RATIOS WILL                
BE VERY LOW...ON THE ORDER OF 9 TO 1 OR LESS WITH THE WETNESS OF                
THIS SNOW.                                                                      
AS THE TWO SYSTEMS MERGE MONDAY MORNING...THE PRECIP SHOULD COME                
TO AN END FAIRLY QUICKLY BEFORE 18Z AND SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO                   
CLEAR OUT A BIT AND LET THE SUN OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD               
HELP TEMPERATURES TO BRIEFLY CLIMB UP TO AROUND 40 OR SO. SKIES                 
WILL CLOUD UP AGAIN TOWARD EVENING AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW                 
DIVES DOWN THROUGH WISCONSIN ON INTO NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND                     
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS COLD PUNCH OF AIR ALONG WITH SOME                  
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO SEE               
SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.                         
AFTER ALL THIS EXCITEMENT PASSES INTO NEW ENGLAND AND STALLS                    
OUT...OUR REGION WILL BE LEFT IN WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT                  
WITH RIDGING AT THE SFC. THIS IS GOOD NEWS FOR ANY TRAVELERS                    
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS SKIES WILL MAINLY BE CLEAR THROUGH               
THIS PERIOD AND DRY...ALBEIT SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS               
TIME OF YEAR.                                                                   
HALBACH                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
1200 UTC TAFS...A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS CHANGING OVER TO MOSTLY               
SNOW THIS MORNING AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING QUICKLY DROPS THE LOWER                
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BELOW FREEZING. ACARS DESCENT SOUNDING                 
INTO ORD AT 11Z DEPICTS THIS WELL.  BOTH CIGS AND VSBYS HAVE                    
DROPPED TO IFR OR LIFR AS THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES                     
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. RUC/NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE RH VALUES                
DROPPING RAPIDLY BY MID TO LATE MORNING WHICH SUGGESTS CONDITIONS               
WILL IMPROVE CONSIDERABLY BY MID-DAY...THOUGH A FEW LINGERING SNOW              
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY REMAINING LOW STRATUS. WINDS WILL                   
INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A                    
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND ADDITIONAL RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS              
ARE POSSIBLE AS THE BACK END OF THE LOW SPINS ACROSS THE AREA                   
BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST.                                                  
LENNING                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
326 AM CST                                                                      
A SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING                
WILL PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE AND STRENGTHEN                
ABOUT 10MB BY THIS EVENING AS IT MERGES WITH ANOTHER LOW DROPPING               
OUT OF CANADA. NORTH TO NORTHWEST GALES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP                 
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS              
BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND A CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS                
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING AS THE                 
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WESTERLY                 
WINDS GENERALLY ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE               
WEEK.                                                                           
LENNING                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ745...NOON MONDAY TO 6 PM MONDAY.                
     GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-           
     LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-                   
     LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...6 PM MONDAY TO                 
     6 PM TUESDAY.                                                              
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744...NOON           
     MONDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY.                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
1237 PM CST MON NOV 24 2008                                                     
.SHORT TERM...TODAY                                                             
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXITING FAR SE IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING AND              
LIGHT PRECIP HAS ENDED OVER FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. THE UPPER TROUGH              
WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE STATE TODAY.THE GFS/RUC ARE MORE                  
AGGRESSIVE WITH CAA IN NORTHERN IOWA THIS AFTERNOON...COMPARED TO               
THE NAM. THE NAM INITIALIZED A BIT TOO WARM REGARDING THE AIRMASS TO            
THE NORTH...SO WENT WITH A BLEND OF NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR              
AFTERNOON HIGHS. THIS WAS CLOSE TO THE FWC/NGM MOS WITH SOME MINOR              
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS IN THE SOUTH. THERE MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES OUT              
OF THE AFTERNOON STRATOCU IN THE MCW/ALO AREAS...ALTHOUGH RH IN THE             
SPZ IS MARGINAL. SOUNDINGS GO DRY ADIABATIC TO NEAR 850MB...AND                 
WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER SUGGEST GUSTS INTO THE 30S.                 
.LONG TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY                                             
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW ACROSS LAKE WINNIPEG...WILL DIVE SOUTH               
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION             
TONIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE VERY LIMITED MOISTURE TAGGING ALONG               
THOUGH STILL POSSIBLE TO SQUEEZE A FEW FLURRIES OUT THIS EVENING                
NEAR MCW AND ALO. OTHERWISE...BETTER CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL BE             
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE SYSTEMS CONNECTION AT THE SFC                
WILL NOT BE WELL ESTABLISHED WITH LITTLE SFC REFLECTION BESIDES A               
WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH. THE SYSTEMS BIGGEST EFFECT ON                   
TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY WILL BE DUE TO WARM ADVECTION IN THE MID               
LEVELS BETWEEN 700-500 MB AND COLD ADVECTION BETWEEN 925-800 MB.                
THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED MIXING POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY WITH AN                 
INVERSION ABOVE 900 MB AND COOLER THAN TODAY WHEN BETTER MIXING                 
OCCURS. THE UPPER LOW WILL LINK UP WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY NOW MOVING            
THROUGH SOUTHERN IOWA AND MISSOURI AND CREATE A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER            
THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND WILL SLOW THE FLOW OVER THE MIDWEST                  
TUESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL BE             
IN PLACE DURING THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW AND                 
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.                                                          
THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH IOWA ON                    
THURSDAY...HOWEVER MUCH LIKE TONIGHT...WEAK COLD ADVECTION IS                   
ANTICIPATED TO TAKE PLACE BELOW 900 MB AND EFFECTIVELY STRENGTHEN               
THE INVERSION IN PLACE. THIS WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON                    
THURSDAY TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGY WITH MIXING ONLY TO 950-925 MB. THE 06Z            
NAM IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ON                    
THANKSGIVING DAY. REGARDLESS...EXPECT GOOD TRAVELING CONDITIONS ON              
THURSDAY. SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG SOLUTIONS REMAIN FRIDAY AND INTO               
THE WEEKEND THOUGH OVERALL TRENDS ARE TO SUPPRESS THE SOUTHERN                  
PLAINS SYSTEM EVEN FURTHER SOUTH AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRINGING                 
ANOTHER PUSH OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR SETTLES SOUTH ON FRIDAY. THE               
GEM IS CURRENTLY FARTHEST NORTH WITH THE PRECIPITATION TO NEAR THE              
IA/MO BORDER.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...24/18Z                                                              
SCNDRY CDFNT DROPPING S ACRS MN AND WILL BRING WITH IT AN AREA OF               
VFR AND INTMT MVFR STRATUS IN ITS WAKE.  CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO NERN             
IA TWD SNST AND SPRD OVR ABOUT THE NERN HLF BFT EXITING BFR SNRS.               
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MS NOV 08                                                 
LONG TERM...DONAVON                                                             
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA                                        
1157 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2008                                                     
.AVIATION...FIRST THING TO MENTION IS THE SMOKE ISSUE AT KLCH                   
WHICH BROUGHT VISIBILITIES TO BELOW A MILE FOR A FAIR CHUNK OF THE              
EVENING. VISIBILITY HAS RISEN BACK TO 10SM RECENTLY BUT HAVE                    
INCLUDED PREVAILING FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST IN CASE                  
SMOKE RETURNS. OTHERWISE EXPECT SLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO VIS ALL                  
SITES ON AT LEAST AN OFF AND ON BASIS OVERNIGHT.                                
REGIONAL 88DS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OR VIRGA MOVING               
NE TOWARD THE UPPER SE TX/SWRN LA COAST. HAVE CONTINUED EARLIER                 
TREND OF BRINGING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS INTO KLCH/KBPT BY                     
SUNRISE AND BY MID-MORNING FOR REMAINING TAF SITES. EXPECT RAIN TO              
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES WEST TO EAST FROM               
LATE MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES/VFR BY                
LATE IN THE PERIOD.                                                             
25                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 938 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2008/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
ONLY UPDATE TO THE GRIDS THIS EVENING IS TO POPS/WX/QPF. RADAR                  
MOSAIC SHOWS A BAND OF SHOWERS OVER THE GULF WATERS SOUTH OF                    
HOUSTON/GALVESTON BAY. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIFTING SLOWLY NE AND BOTH              
RUC AND NAM APPEAR TO HAVE A HANDLE ON CURRENT TRENDS WITH                      
INCREASING PRECIP OVER OUR SWRN ZONES AND WESTERN COASTAL WATERS                
OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE SFC BECOMES MORE SWRLY.                     
LOWERED POPS TO 20 PERCENT AREAWIDE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE                    
EVENING...INCREASING TO 30 PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR THE LOWER SE              
TX ZONES AND COASTAL WATERS MAINLY WEST OF CAMERON. REMAINDER OF                
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. UPDATED ZONES HAVE BEEN SENT. 24                           
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 707 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2008/                          
AVIATION...MAIN CHALLENGE THIS TAF PACKAGE ISSUANCE IS TIMING OF                
THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. REGIONAL 88DS SHOW MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS...          
MUCH OF IT PROBABLY JUST VIRGA ATTM...OVER THE GULF OFF THE MIDDLE              
TEXAS COAST MOVING NWD. MODEL PROJECTIONS SHOW PRECIP SPREADING OVER            
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST STARTING TOWARD 12Z...                     
ALTHOUGH LIKE LAST NIGHT THE GFS APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE WETTER AND              
FASTER THAN THE NAM. THUS HAVE TIMED THE PREVAILING POPS IN THE                 
TAFS WITH THIS IN MIND. BUT UNTIL THEN FOR THE OVERNIGHT JUST                   
STUCK WITH VFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWERING...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT              
RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY AS WINDS LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR PREVENTING              
FOG FORMATION.                                                                  
25                                                                              
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...A RATHER MILD AND PLEASANT AFTERNOON ONGOING ACROSS                
THE REGION. DESPITE CONSIDERABLE MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS...WARMING                 
SOUTHERLIES HAVE MANAGED TO WARM TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 60S                       
NORTH...LOW 70S SOUTH. DEWPOINTS GENERALLY RUNNING FROM 15 TO 20                
DEGREES ABOVE THAT OF 24 HOURS PRIOR. LOCAL RADAR INDICATING JUST               
A BIT OF VIRGA OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA.                                          
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE CONTINUES ON TRACK FOR MONDAY. LATEST MOS                  
GUIDANCE SHOWING LESS PRE-FRONTAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE                
REGION TONIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS/POPS DOWN ACCORDINGLY. WILL                 
HOWEVER MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL                     
CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING ALONG BOUNDARY...WITH DEEP OMEGAS/LIFT ALSO              
ACCOMPANYING FRONT. SUFFICIENT SPEED OF SYSTEM WILL EFFECTIVELY LIMIT           
ANY SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN AMOUNTS.                                        
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES REESTABLISHED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RETURN           
FLOW SETS UP THURSDAY AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH APPEARS               
LIKELY PER LONG RANGE MODELS ON FRIDAY.                                         
AVIATION...OVERCAST SKIES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON      
INTO THIS EVENING AS SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING SHORT                 
WAVE PULLS EAST PAC MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS                
EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...ALONG WITH SOME RELATIVELY DRY AIR BETWEEN                
THE SURFACE AND 10K FEET...AND THUS ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE JUST              
SOME SPRINKLES OR VIRGA. CEILING HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AT                 
VFR LEVELS.                                                                     
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY               
MONDAY AS SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA. THESE                
WINDS WILL HELP INCREASE MOISTURE VALUES WITH GUIDANCE TIME                     
HEIGHTS SHOWING OVER 80 PERCENT RH BETWEEN THE SURFACE TO OVER 20K              
FEET BY 24/12Z. THIS WILL HELP LOWER CEILING HEIGHTS TO BETWEEN                 
3K-5K FEET WITH A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING               
THE OVERNIGHT. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS EXPECTED BETWEEN 15 AND                
20 KNOTS AND SOME LIFT SEEN BY PROGGED PVA IN THE LOW LEVELS...ANY              
FOG FORMATION WILL BE PATCHY IN NATURE WITH SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE.    
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE AFTER 24/12Z FROM WEST               
TO EAST AS STRONGER LIFT FROM AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TAPS INTO               
THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE.                                                          
RUA                                                                             
MARINE...A MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN              
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS                  
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A STRONG                 
OFFSHORE FLOW.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
KLCH  60  73  47  69  44 /  20  70  10   0   0                                  
KBPT  62  74  46  70  44 /  30  70  10   0  10                                  
KAEX  58  69  42  67  40 /  20  70  10   0  10                                  
KLFT  58  71  48  66  43 /  20  70  10   0   0                                  
&&                                                                              
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LA...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> la                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC                             
1020 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST               
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. REINFORCING COLD AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS                     
THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA DURING                  
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED BY THE END                
OF THE WEEK...AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE                      
SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN SEABOARD TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.               
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /OVRGNT/...                                                          
RCVD A SPOTTER REPORT OF 5" IN DOWNTOWN FROSTBURG. HV ADDED WRN                 
ALLEGANY AND MINERAL TO THE WRNG AREA.                                          
DID A SLTLY EARLY UPDATE TO THE ZNS BASED ON WHAT`S HAPPENING ON                
THE WRN FRINGE OF OUR CWA. RCVD A REPORT AT 8 PM OF 8 1/2" IN                   
BAYARD. FM WHAT WE`VE LOOKED AT - SREF..AND RUC HRR BEING KEY...WE              
EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST 6 MORE HRS OF MDT-HVY SNOWFALL IN WRN                    
GRANT/PENDLETON. WINT STORM WRNG ALREADY UP FOR OUT THERE...BUT HV              
RAISED THE TOTALS TO UP TO A FOOT.                                              
PRVS DSCN...                                                                    
WX TNGT WILL BE RESULT OF THIRD SHRTWV TROF MOVG SEWD AROUND BACK               
SIDE OF UPR LOW. LOW LVL FLOW ALONG WRN ZONES HAS BACKED TO SWLY                
THIS AFTN IN RESPONSE TO APRCHG WAVE.                                           
WITH PASSAGE OF UPR WAVE...ASSOCIATED CDFNT WILL MOVE THRU...WITH               
WINDS BCMG WLY TO WNWLY. THIS MAY RESTORE WEAK UPSLP COMPONENT TO               
WINDS...AND MAY ENHANCE SNOW TOTALS SLGTLY. MAINTAINED ISOLD-SCT                
CVRG OF PCPN N CNTRL ZONES TNGT ALONG TRACK OF SHRTWV TROF.                     
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...                                                      
CLD CVR ERODES DURG MRNG SRN ZONES...ALTHOUGH XPCD TO PERSIST                   
ELSEWHERE. MAXIMA SIMILAR TO TDA IN AREAS WITH FEWER CLDS TMW.                  
SNOW SHOWERS TO CONT WRN SLOPES THRU MID DAY TMW...BUT PCPN CHCS                
SHUD DECR REMAINDER OF FCST AREA AS UPR LOW LIFTS NWD.                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                 
THE EXTENDED HAS BECOME MORE UNCLEAR. NO MAJOR STORMS ON THE                    
HORIZON...BUT GENERAL DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS BASICALLY FROM D2             
ONWARD. THE FIRST MISHANDLING OCCURS W/ THE FRIDAY FRONTAL                      
SYSTEM...WHERE THE GFS AT LEAST HOLDS ONTO A PIECE OF PREV RUNS. A              
TIGHTLY PACKED UPPER CLOSED LOW WILL SHOOT SWD OVER THE WRN GRT LKS             
ON THU. A WEAKENING UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SW WILL LAG BEHIND THE            
GRT LKS LOW. THE RESULT WILL BE A DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP MUCH FURTHER            
S OF THE DEEPENING UPPER TROF. THE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROF AXIS            
WILL SLIDE EWD ACROSS THE OH VLY ON FRI. ACCORDING TO THE 12Z                   
GFS...THE SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVE E                 
ACROSS THE I-20 CRDR...KEEPING MUCH OF THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP FAR                
SOUTH OF THE MID ATLC.                                                          
THE 00Z EUROPEAN INITIALLY HAS THE SAME IDEA...THEN SQUELCHES THE               
SOUTHEASTERN SYSTEM BY SEPARATING THE UPPER ENERGY INTO A SMALLER               
UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE GRT LKS TROF AXIS EXITING OFF             
THE COAST ON FRI...W/ LITTLE MORE THAN LIGHT UPSLOPE FOR THE CNTRL              
APPALACHIANS. THE REMAINDER OF THE 00Z RUN SWINGS ANOTHER UPPER WAVE            
ACROSS THE GRT LKS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...MORE TYPICAL NW FLOW AND               
ANOTHER QUICK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID                     
MISSISSIPPI VLY FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK /COMPARABLE TO THE ONE THE             
JUST MOVED THROUGH ON MONDAY/.                                                  
THE RESULTING AMBIGUITY BROUGHT ON CAUSE FOR A CHANGE IN POPS FOR               
THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY. LOW CHANCE POPS FOR FRI...EXPECTING A WEAK              
COLD FRONT TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY. IF THE GFS              
SWLY PROG IS A BETTER VALUE FOR THE WEEKEND...THEN ENOUGH LOW LEVEL             
MOISTURE WILL PUSH NWD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROF FOR AT               
LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS FRI AFTN...BUT NOW THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY             
LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.                                 
LOOKING THE NEW 12Z ECMWF...THE MODEL IS NOW A BIT MORE ONBOARD W/              
THE GFS DEVELOP WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHEAST...BUT STILL A BIT            
SLOW. THIS RESULTS IN A DEEPER BACKSIDE DIGGING UPPER ACROSS THE                
UPPER MIDWEST AND STRONGER COASTAL LOW OFF THE MID ATLC COAST LATE              
SUNDAY. A COUPLE OF TRANSITION HIPRES DAYS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND                  
ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR MID WEEK. SO...THIS RUN              
NOT MAKING THE MED-LONG RANGE MUCH MORE CLEAR.                                  
EITHER WAY...THIS FORECAST SHOULD BE A RETURN OF NEAR NORMAL HIGHS              
TO THE REGION...IN THE U40S/L50S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. MUCH OF THE                 
UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE DRY...BUT AT LEAST WINDS LOOK TO STAY FAIRLY              
WEAK...EVEN WITH SEVERAL INCOMING UPPER VORT MAX/S.                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                     
VFR CONDS XPCTD AT THE MAJOR AIRPORTS OVRNGT. MRB MAY SEE CIGS                  
DROP TO MVFR.                                                                   
THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD HAVE LITTLE CONCERN FOR ADVERSE                     
WX...OUTSIDE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY AND A POSSIBLE LOW                  
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING UP THE COAST ON SUN/MON. WINDS SHOULD BE                
LIGHT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP THRU THE               
REST OF THE WORK WEEK.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
SMALL CRAFT ADZY CONTS THIS EVE THRU TMW AS INSTBY TNGT AND CDFNT               
TMW WILL ALLOW GUSTS TO MIX TO SFC.                                             
LITTLE CAUSE FOR CONCERN OF SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF             
THE FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE              
REGION ON FRIDAY. A POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR                    
SUN/MON...THO TIMING AND STRENGTH ARE STILL VERY UNCERTAIN. THE REST            
OF THIS WEEK SHOULD SEE MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS.                   
&&                                                                              
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
DC...NONE.                                                                      
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ501.               
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ021.               
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ503.               
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ054-501.              
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>537.          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...WOODY!                                                                 
PRVS...MRK/GMS                                                                  
</pre> md                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1210 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2008                                                     
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE                                
.SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 419 AM EST                                               
08Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGING                
COVERING MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.S. AND IMMEDIATELY ALONG             
THE EAST COAST...WITH A TROUGH IN-BETWEEN OVER THE WESTERN GREAT                
LAKES WHICH CONTAINS AN UPPER LOW NEAR DETROIT. COLDEST AIR OF THE              
UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ON THE WEST SIDE PER 00Z RAOB ANALYSIS OF 850MB            
TEMPS...WITH READINGS OF -14C AT INL AND -11C AT MPX. FARTHER EAST              
ACROSS THE TROUGH...TEMPS WARM TO -9C AT CWPL AND GRB AND TO -5C AT             
APX. THE TROUGH IS ALSO FAIRLY MOIST...AT LEAST IN THE LOW LEVELS AS            
LATEST 11-3.9 UM IMAGERY AND SFC OBS SHOWS LOW CLOUDS COVERING MUCH             
OF ONTARIO...EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ALL OF MI. CWPL SOUNDING                 
REFLECTS THIS BY SATURATION FROM THE SFC TO 850MB. THIS MOISTURE...             
COMBINED WITH THE COOL AIR AND A BLUSTERY NORTHERLY FLOW ON SUPERIOR            
HAVE GENERATED SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS...HOWEVER MUCH OF                
THESE HAVE DIMINISHED AS OF 08Z. SYNOPTIC SNOW...ASSOCIATED WITH THE            
COLD CONVEYOR BELT AROUND A 1001MB SFC LOW IN SRN LAKE HURON...IS               
MOSTLY CONFINED TO LOWER MI. TO THE WEST...A SFC RIDGE EXTENDS FROM             
MN INTO NW ONTARIO...WHICH IS LOCATED JUST TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER              
RIDGE AXIS IN EASTERN MANITOBA. 00Z BIS SOUNDING SHOWS THE DRY AIR              
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC RIDGE...WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 40C OR             
GREATER BTWN 700-850MB. THIS DRY AIR HAS BEEN MAKING IT INTO THE                
CWA...NOTED BY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE NW HALF OF WESTERN LAKE              
SUPERIOR AND LOWERING DEWPOINTS OVER THE CWA (26F NOW AT STDM4 AND              
28 AT P53). THIS DRIER AIR MAY HAVE BEEN THE CAUSE OF THE END OF THE            
LAKE ENHANCED PCPN...IN ADDITION TO THE FACT THAT THE AIRMASS IS NOT            
THAT COLD TO BEGIN WITH AS NOTED BY THE 00Z APX 850MB TEMP. WEST OF             
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS A SHRTWV TROUGH CROSSING                 
SASKATCHEWAN.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION... ISSUED AT 419 AM EST                                             
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS PCPN CHANCES THROUGH FRI...GIVEN LATEST                
RADAR IMAGERY NOT NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE AS EARLIER EXPECTED.                     
TODAY...UPPER LOW NEAR DETROIT IS PROGGED TO SLIDE EASTWARD INTO PA             
THIS AFTN AND THEN INTO WRN NEW YORK STATE BY 00Z. WITH THE LOW                 
MOVING FARTHER AWAY FROM HERE...THE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR NW AND THE SFC            
RIDGE IS ALLOWED TO BUILD INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THEREFORE...              
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE CWA. GIVEN THE FACT THAT             
LITTLE PCPN IS OCCURRING ON RADAR AT THE MOMENT AND FURTHER DRY AIR             
ENTERING THE CWA...HAVE DRIED OUT THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. MODELS                
HAVE BEEN OVERDOING THE AMOUNT OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM THIS                    
EVENT...AND EVEN THE LATEST 06Z RUNS CONTINUE TO DO SO...BUT TRENDS             
FROM THE MODELS ARE SHOWING LESS QPF. STILL HAVE MAINTAINED A DECENT            
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER FOR TODAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTH CENTRAL             
AND EASTERN CWA FROM MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A LOWERING INVERSION.               
OVER THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL...SOME OF THE LAKE EFFECT COULD                 
CLEAR OUT...BUT MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV IN                   
SASKATCHEWAN ARE EXPECTED TO DROPPING IN DURING THE AFTN. COLDER                
850MB AIR IN OVER THE CWA AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF            
HEATING TODAY. READINGS WILL END UP A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN                   
YESTERDAY.                                                                      
TONIGHT...SHRTWV CURRENTLY OVER SASKATCHEWAN IS PROGGED TO DROP                 
SOUTH INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z WED AS IT DIGS INTO THE                 
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. IMPACTS FROM THIS SHRTWV             
SHOULD BE MOSTLY THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF IT...SINCE DRY AIR                
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER WESTERN LAKE                
SUPERIOR. TO THE EAST...THE UPPER LOW OVER WRN NEW YORK STATE LIFTS             
TO THE NW IN RESPONSE TO STRONG RIDGING BUILT AHEAD OF IT IN THE                
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE UPPER LOW IS A BIT TOO FAR EAST TO HAVE MUCH            
IMPACT OVER THE CWA...BUT A PERSISTENT NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL            
BE CONTINUING DOWN EASTERN SUPERIOR. SOUNDINGS FOR ERY DO NOT LOOK              
THAT FAVORABLE FOR PCPN...WITH ONLY A 1000-3000 FT THICK LAYER OF               
CLOUD DUE TO THE LOW INVERSION. THEREFORE HAVE LOWERED POPS TO 20               
FOR THE EASTERN CWA. WAS TEMPTED TO REMOVE POPS ENTIRELY GIVEN                  
LACKLUSTER PERFORMANCE OF PCPN CURRENTLY...BUT THE DROP FROM 50 IS              
TOO MUCH FOR ONE FORECAST. NEEDLESS TO SAY THERE SHOULD STILL BE                
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER BETWEEN THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND THE TRAPPED               
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THESE CLOUDS WILL HELP HOLD TEMPS UP...                     
ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN CWA WHERE THE NORTH FLOW CONTINUES TO                 
BRING WARMER AIR IN OFF EASTERN SUPERIOR. COLDEST READINGS EXPECTED             
IN GOGEBIC AND IRON COUNTIES...WHERE A PERIOD OF CLEARING IS                    
POSSIBLE AFTER THE MID CLOUDS EXIT LATE TONIGHT. READINGS THERE                 
COULD DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS AS SUGGESTED BY MET/MAV GUIDANCE.               
WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW IN FAR SE ONTARIO LIFTS A BIT FARTHER TO THE              
NW...BUT STILL WELL AWAY FROM HERE. SHRTWVS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW             
ARE ALSO FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM HERE COMPARED TO WHAT IT LOOKED LIKE              
YESTERDAY SUCH THAT NO SYNOPTIC PCPN IS EXPECTED. PERHAPS SOME SNOW             
GETS INTO THE WAWA ONTARIO AREA LATER IN THE AFTN AS THE 00Z NAM                
SUGGESTS...BUT THAT WOULD BE IT FOR THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE                  
SYNOPTIC SNOW. MODELS ALSO SHOW SOME LIGHT PCPN COMING OFF EASTERN              
LAKE SUPERIOR...SIMILAR TO TONIGHT...WITH COLD ENOUGH AIR TO                    
GENERATE LAKE ENHANCED OR LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION. HAVE DECIDED TO            
KEEP SOME 20 POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN CWA...BUT AGAIN               
COULD SEE IT BEING DRY AS WELL SEEING WHAT IS HAPPENING RIGHT NOW.              
ALSO...DO NOT WANT HAVE A HUGE DROP IN POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS                   
FORECAST. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE                     
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STUCK IN THE MN/WESTERN LAKE            
SUPERIOR AREA...MAINTAINING DRY WEATHER. A BIT MORE SUN COULD OCCUR             
AS WELL...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WI BORDER AWAY FROM LAKE MOISTURE                
TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION. WITH 850MB TEMPS PROGGED FROM -4C WEST             
TO -8C CENTRAL/EAST AND MORE SUN...HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE             
MID 30S...WARMEST SOUTH CENTRAL WITH DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW.                       
WED NIGHT...UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO LIFT FARTHER NORTH...WHILE TO               
THE WEST A FAIRLY STRONG SHRTWV IS SHOWN TO DROP DOWN INTO EASTERN              
NORTH DAKOTA. THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET KEEP THE SHRTWVS ROTATING                 
AROUND THE UPPER LOW FARTHER TO THE WEST THAN THE 00Z NAM...AND HAVE            
DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE MAJORITY. THIS IS REINFORCED BY THE FACT THAT             
THE SHRTWV TROUGH DROPPING DOWN INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD                
PUSH RIDGING TOWARDS UPPER MI...NOT ALLOWING THE UPPER LOW TO                   
RETREAT WESTWARD. SO IT COMES DOWN TO LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED PCPN                 
AGAIN...WITH 20 POPS CONFINED TO THE EASTERN CWA. THE WEST AND                  
CENTRAL AREAS CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY THE SFC RIDGE...WHICH GETS            
A PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING FORMS AHEAD OF               
THE SHRTWV. THIS MEANS THAT THE WEST AND CENTRAL REMAIN DRY WITH                
SOME CLOUDS AROUND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. SHOULD THESE CLOUDS NOT                   
EXIST...WILL NEED TO WATCH TEMPS INLAND...ESPECIALLY WITH THE SFC               
RIDGE BUILDING IN. HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF UPPER TEENS INLAND WITH            
20S ELSEWHERE...BUT IF SKIES CLEAR THEN LOW TEENS AS SUGGESTED BY               
MEX COOP GUIDANCE WOULD BE MORE REALISTIC.                                      
THU THROUGH FRI...THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST IS DOMINATED BY THAT              
SHRTWV TROUGH THAT DROPPED DOWN INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. ALREADY              
THIS TROUGH IS FASTER COMPARED TO WHAT THE 00Z RUNS FROM YESTERDAY              
SHOWED. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE SPEED OF THE TROUGH...WITH THE ECMWF             
AND UKMET FASTER COMPARED WITH THE GFS/NAM. HPC PREFERENCE WAS TO               
FOLLOW THE FASTER SCENARIO...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE FASTER                 
MOTION TO BEGIN WITH. THIS TROUGH SHOULD CROSS INTO CENTRAL WI BY               
00Z FRI...THEN HEAD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY 12Z FRI. SINCE              
THE TROUGH IS GOING JUST TO OUR SOUTH...THE TRACK IS FAVORABLE FOR A            
FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF SNOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA. BEST GUESS                 
TIMING FOR THE BAND WOULD BE BTWN 18Z AND 06Z. INCLUDED POPS IN THE             
FORECAST...GENERALLY 30-50 FOR NOW...BUT IF TRENDS CONTINUE MORE                
INCREASES WILL BE NEEDED. SINCE THE TROUGH IS A FAST MOVER AND DOES             
NOT HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SINCE IT IS COMING OUT OF             
CENTRAL CANADA INSTEAD OF THE SRN PLAINS...ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS             
OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED. IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRTWV...COOLER AIR FILTERS            
FOR LATER THU NIGHT INTO FRI...WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND              
-10C. THEREFORE...SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOULD START UP...MOSTLY                     
AFFECTING THE NW FLOW SNOWBELTS. HIGHS ON THU WILL BE SLIGHTLY                  
COOLER THAN WED SINCE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY APPROACH WITH              
THE TROUGH. LOOK FOR FRI TO BE A LITTLE COOLER TOO AS THE COLD                  
ADVECTION STARTS UP.                                                            
NO CHANGES MADE BEYOND FRI. LOOKS LIKE A GENERAL LAKE EFFECT PATTERN            
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH GENERAL TROUGHING SETTING UP OVER THE GREAT               
LAKES AND 850MB TEMPS IN THE -10 TO -12C RANGE. MEAN WIND DIRECTION             
LOOKS TO BE NW...SO NW FLOW SNOWBELTS WOULD HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE              
FOR LAKE EFFECT. HIGHS AND LOWS EXPECTED TO STAY AROUND NORMAL GIVEN            
THE 850MB READINGS.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
OVERALL...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL AT KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST               
PERIOD AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW A SLIGHTLY                   
LOWERING INVERSION. CLOUDS MAY OCCASIONALLY SCATTER OUT AT KCMX AND             
PERHAPS KSAW THIS EVENING...BUT IT APPEARS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL              
REMAIN SUFFICIENT THAT BKN MVFR CIGS SHOULD BE THE RULE THRU THE                
FCST PERIOD. AS A WEAK SFC RIDGE NOSES INTO WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN              
THIS AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NWRLY AND LIGHTEN TO LESS THAN            
10 KNOTS.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
LOW PRES JUST E OF LAKE HURON WILL MEANDER E ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT             
LAKES REGION THRU WED. AS THIS OCCURS...NRLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY               
DECREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT. OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...EXPECT 20-30KT             
WINDS TO DECREASE TO 15-25KT THIS AFTN AND TO 10-20KT TONIGHT. THERE            
MAY BE A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE THRU MID MORNING...BUT LACK OF            
COLD AIR ADVECTION TO ENHANCE MIXING SUGGESTS POTENTIAL IS VERY                 
MINIMAL. OVER THE W...WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 5-15KT TODAY AS HIGH               
PRES RIDGE ARRIVES. PRES GRADIENT RELAXES ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE WED            
NIGHT INTO THU AS A TROF MOVES INTO THE UPPER LAKES. OVER THE NEXT 5            
DAYS...THE LIGHTEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. IN THE            
WAKE OF THE TROF FRI/SAT...NWRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE                   
15-30KT RANGE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AGAIN OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE            
SUPERIOR.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...AJ                                                        
AVIATION...MZ                                                                   
MARINE...ROLFSON                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
650 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2008                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE                                
.SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 419 AM EST                                               
08Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGING                
COVERING MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.S. AND IMMEDIATELY ALONG             
THE EAST COAST...WITH A TROUGH IN-BETWEEN OVER THE WESTERN GREAT                
LAKES WHICH CONTAINS AN UPPER LOW NEAR DETROIT. COLDEST AIR OF THE              
UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ON THE WEST SIDE PER 00Z RAOB ANALYSIS OF 850MB            
TEMPS...WITH READINGS OF -14C AT INL AND -11C AT MPX. FARTHER EAST              
ACROSS THE TROUGH...TEMPS WARM TO -9C AT CWPL AND GRB AND TO -5C AT             
APX. THE TROUGH IS ALSO FAIRLY MOIST...AT LEAST IN THE LOW LEVELS AS            
LATEST 11-3.9 UM IMAGERY AND SFC OBS SHOWS LOW CLOUDS COVERING MUCH             
OF ONTARIO...EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ALL OF MI. CWPL SOUNDING                 
REFLECTS THIS BY SATURATION FROM THE SFC TO 850MB. THIS MOISTURE...             
COMBINED WITH THE COOL AIR AND A BLUSTERY NORTHERLY FLOW ON SUPERIOR            
HAVE GENERATED SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS...HOWEVER MUCH OF                
THESE HAVE DIMINISHED AS OF 08Z. SYNOPTIC SNOW...ASSOCIATED WITH THE            
COLD CONVEYOR BELT AROUND A 1001MB SFC LOW IN SRN LAKE HURON...IS               
MOSTLY CONFINED TO LOWER MI. TO THE WEST...A SFC RIDGE EXTENDS FROM             
MN INTO NW ONTARIO...WHICH IS LOCATED JUST TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER              
RIDGE AXIS IN EASTERN MANITOBA. 00Z BIS SOUNDING SHOWS THE DRY AIR              
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC RIDGE...WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 40C OR             
GREATER BTWN 700-850MB. THIS DRY AIR HAS BEEN MAKING IT INTO THE                
CWA...NOTED BY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE NW HALF OF WESTERN LAKE              
SUPERIOR AND LOWERING DEWPOINTS OVER THE CWA (26F NOW AT STDM4 AND              
28 AT P53). THIS DRIER AIR MAY HAVE BEEN THE CAUSE OF THE END OF THE            
LAKE ENHANCED PCPN...IN ADDITION TO THE FACT THAT THE AIRMASS IS NOT            
THAT COLD TO BEGIN WITH AS NOTED BY THE 00Z APX 850MB TEMP. WEST OF             
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS A SHRTWV TROUGH CROSSING                 
SASKATCHEWAN.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION... ISSUED AT 419 AM EST                                             
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS PCPN CHANCES THROUGH FRI...GIVEN LATEST                
RADAR IMAGERY NOT NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE AS EARLIER EXPECTED.                     
TODAY...UPPER LOW NEAR DETROIT IS PROGGED TO SLIDE EASTWARD INTO PA             
THIS AFTN AND THEN INTO WRN NEW YORK STATE BY 00Z. WITH THE LOW                 
MOVING FARTHER AWAY FROM HERE...THE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR NW AND THE SFC            
RIDGE IS ALLOWED TO BUILD INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THEREFORE...              
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE CWA. GIVEN THE FACT THAT             
LITTLE PCPN IS OCCURRING ON RADAR AT THE MOMENT AND FURTHER DRY AIR             
ENTERING THE CWA...HAVE DRIED OUT THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. MODELS                
HAVE BEEN OVERDOING THE AMOUNT OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM THIS                    
EVENT...AND EVEN THE LATEST 06Z RUNS CONTINUE TO DO SO...BUT TRENDS             
FROM THE MODELS ARE SHOWING LESS QPF. STILL HAVE MAINTAINED A DECENT            
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER FOR TODAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTH CENTRAL             
AND EASTERN CWA FROM MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A LOWERING INVERSION.               
OVER THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL...SOME OF THE LAKE EFFECT COULD                 
CLEAR OUT...BUT MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV IN                   
SASKATCHEWAN ARE EXPECTED TO DROPPING IN DURING THE AFTN. COLDER                
850MB AIR IN OVER THE CWA AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF            
HEATING TODAY. READINGS WILL END UP A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN                   
YESTERDAY.                                                                      
TONIGHT...SHRTWV CURRENTLY OVER SASKATCHEWAN IS PROGGED TO DROP                 
SOUTH INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z WED AS IT DIGS INTO THE                 
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. IMPACTS FROM THIS SHRTWV             
SHOULD BE MOSTLY THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF IT...SINCE DRY AIR                
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER WESTERN LAKE                
SUPERIOR. TO THE EAST...THE UPPER LOW OVER WRN NEW YORK STATE LIFTS             
TO THE NW IN RESPONSE TO STRONG RIDGING BUILT AHEAD OF IT IN THE                
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE UPPER LOW IS A BIT TOO FAR EAST TO HAVE MUCH            
IMPACT OVER THE CWA...BUT A PERSISTENT NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL            
BE CONTINUING DOWN EASTERN SUPERIOR. SOUNDINGS FOR ERY DO NOT LOOK              
THAT FAVORABLE FOR PCPN...WITH ONLY A 1000-3000 FT THICK LAYER OF               
CLOUD DUE TO THE LOW INVERSION. THEREFORE HAVE LOWERED POPS TO 20               
FOR THE EASTERN CWA. WAS TEMPTED TO REMOVE POPS ENTIRELY GIVEN                  
LACKLUSTER PERFORMANCE OF PCPN CURRENTLY...BUT THE DROP FROM 50 IS              
TOO MUCH FOR ONE FORECAST. NEEDLESS TO SAY THERE SHOULD STILL BE                
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER BETWEEN THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND THE TRAPPED               
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THESE CLOUDS WILL HELP HOLD TEMPS UP...                     
ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN CWA WHERE THE NORTH FLOW CONTINUES TO                 
BRING WARMER AIR IN OFF EASTERN SUPERIOR. COLDEST READINGS EXPECTED             
IN GOGEBIC AND IRON COUNTIES...WHERE A PERIOD OF CLEARING IS                    
POSSIBLE AFTER THE MID CLOUDS EXIT LATE TONIGHT. READINGS THERE                 
COULD DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS AS SUGGESTED BY MET/MAV GUIDANCE.               
WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW IN FAR SE ONTARIO LIFTS A BIT FARTHER TO THE              
NW...BUT STILL WELL AWAY FROM HERE. SHRTWVS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW             
ARE ALSO FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM HERE COMPARED TO WHAT IT LOOKED LIKE              
YESTERDAY SUCH THAT NO SYNOPTIC PCPN IS EXPECTED. PERHAPS SOME SNOW             
GETS INTO THE WAWA ONTARIO AREA LATER IN THE AFTN AS THE 00Z NAM                
SUGGESTS...BUT THAT WOULD BE IT FOR THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE                  
SYNOPTIC SNOW. MODELS ALSO SHOW SOME LIGHT PCPN COMING OFF EASTERN              
LAKE SUPERIOR...SIMILAR TO TONIGHT...WITH COLD ENOUGH AIR TO                    
GENERATE LAKE ENHANCED OR LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION. HAVE DECIDED TO            
KEEP SOME 20 POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN CWA...BUT AGAIN               
COULD SEE IT BEING DRY AS WELL SEEING WHAT IS HAPPENING RIGHT NOW.              
ALSO...DO NOT WANT HAVE A HUGE DROP IN POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS                   
FORECAST. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE                     
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STUCK IN THE MN/WESTERN LAKE            
SUPERIOR AREA...MAINTAINING DRY WEATHER. A BIT MORE SUN COULD OCCUR             
AS WELL...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WI BORDER AWAY FROM LAKE MOISTURE                
TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION. WITH 850MB TEMPS PROGGED FROM -4C WEST             
TO -8C CENTRAL/EAST AND MORE SUN...HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE             
MID 30S...WARMEST SOUTH CENTRAL WITH DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW.                       
WED NIGHT...UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO LIFT FARTHER NORTH...WHILE TO               
THE WEST A FAIRLY STRONG SHRTWV IS SHOWN TO DROP DOWN INTO EASTERN              
NORTH DAKOTA. THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET KEEP THE SHRTWVS ROTATING                 
AROUND THE UPPER LOW FARTHER TO THE WEST THAN THE 00Z NAM...AND HAVE            
DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE MAJORITY. THIS IS REINFORCED BY THE FACT THAT             
THE SHRTWV TROUGH DROPPING DOWN INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD                
PUSH RIDGING TOWARDS UPPER MI...NOT ALLOWING THE UPPER LOW TO                   
RETREAT WESTWARD. SO IT COMES DOWN TO LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED PCPN                 
AGAIN...WITH 20 POPS CONFINED TO THE EASTERN CWA. THE WEST AND                  
CENTRAL AREAS CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY THE SFC RIDGE...WHICH GETS            
A PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING FORMS AHEAD OF               
THE SHRTWV. THIS MEANS THAT THE WEST AND CENTRAL REMAIN DRY WITH                
SOME CLOUDS AROUND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. SHOULD THESE CLOUDS NOT                   
EXIST...WILL NEED TO WATCH TEMPS INLAND...ESPECIALLY WITH THE SFC               
RIDGE BUILDING IN. HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF UPPER TEENS INLAND WITH            
20S ELSEWHERE...BUT IF SKIES CLEAR THEN LOW TEENS AS SUGGESTED BY               
MEX COOP GUIDANCE WOULD BE MORE REALISTIC.                                      
THU THROUGH FRI...THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST IS DOMINATED BY THAT              
SHRTWV TROUGH THAT DROPPED DOWN INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. ALREADY              
THIS TROUGH IS FASTER COMPARED TO WHAT THE 00Z RUNS FROM YESTERDAY              
SHOWED. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE SPEED OF THE TROUGH...WITH THE ECMWF             
AND UKMET FASTER COMPARED WITH THE GFS/NAM. HPC PREFERENCE WAS TO               
FOLLOW THE FASTER SCENARIO...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE FASTER                 
MOTION TO BEGIN WITH. THIS TROUGH SHOULD CROSS INTO CENTRAL WI BY               
00Z FRI...THEN HEAD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY 12Z FRI. SINCE              
THE TROUGH IS GOING JUST TO OUR SOUTH...THE TRACK IS FAVORABLE FOR A            
FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF SNOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA. BEST GUESS                 
TIMING FOR THE BAND WOULD BE BTWN 18Z AND 06Z. INCLUDED POPS IN THE             
FORECAST...GENERALLY 30-50 FOR NOW...BUT IF TRENDS CONTINUE MORE                
INCREASES WILL BE NEEDED. SINCE THE TROUGH IS A FAST MOVER AND DOES             
NOT HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SINCE IT IS COMING OUT OF             
CENTRAL CANADA INSTEAD OF THE SRN PLAINS...ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS             
OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED. IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRTWV...COOLER AIR FILTERS            
FOR LATER THU NIGHT INTO FRI...WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND              
-10C. THEREFORE...SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOULD START UP...MOSTLY                     
AFFECTING THE NW FLOW SNOWBELTS. HIGHS ON THU WILL BE SLIGHTLY                  
COOLER THAN WED SINCE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY APPROACH WITH              
THE TROUGH. LOOK FOR FRI TO BE A LITTLE COOLER TOO AS THE COLD                  
ADVECTION STARTS UP.                                                            
NO CHANGES MADE BEYOND FRI. LOOKS LIKE A GENERAL LAKE EFFECT PATTERN            
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH GENERAL TROUGHING SETTING UP OVER THE GREAT               
LAKES AND 850MB TEMPS IN THE -10 TO -12C RANGE. MEAN WIND DIRECTION             
LOOKS TO BE NW...SO NW FLOW SNOWBELTS WOULD HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE              
FOR LAKE EFFECT. HIGHS AND LOWS EXPECTED TO STAY AROUND NORMAL GIVEN            
THE 850MB READINGS.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
OVERALL...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL AT KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST               
PERIOD AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW A SLIGHTLY                   
LOWERING INVERSION. SOME -SHSN ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE IN                  
NCNTRL UPPER MI...AND THOSE WILL LIKELY REACH KSAW AT TIMES THRU THE            
MORNING. VIS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH ANY -SHSN THOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT             
BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR. CLOUDS MAY OCCASIONALLY SCATTER OUT AT                 
KCMX...BUT IT APPEARS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT THAT            
BKN MVFR CIGS SHOULD BE THE RULE THRU THE FCST PERIOD.                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
LOW PRES JUST E OF LAKE HURON WILL MEANDER E ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT             
LAKES REGION THRU WED. AS THIS OCCURS...NRLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY               
DECREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT. OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...EXPECT 20-30KT             
WINDS TO DECREASE TO 15-25KT THIS AFTN AND TO 10-20KT TONIGHT. THERE            
MAY BE A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE THRU MID MORNING...BUT LACK OF            
COLD AIR ADVECTION TO ENHANCE MIXING SUGGESTS POTENTIAL IS VERY                 
MINIMAL. OVER THE W...WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 5-15KT TODAY AS HIGH               
PRES RIDGE ARRIVES. PRES GRADIENT RELAXES ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE WED            
NIGHT INTO THU AS A TROF MOVES INTO THE UPPER LAKES. OVER THE NEXT 5            
DAYS...THE LIGHTEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. IN THE            
WAKE OF THE TROF FRI/SAT...NWRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE                   
15-30KT RANGE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AGAIN OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE            
SUPERIOR.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...AJ                                                        
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...ROLFSON                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
419 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
08Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGING                
COVERING MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.S. AND IMMEDIATELY ALONG             
THE EAST COAST...WITH A TROUGH IN-BETWEEN OVER THE WESTERN GREAT                
LAKES WHICH CONTAINS AN UPPER LOW NEAR DETROIT. COLDEST AIR OF THE              
UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ON THE WEST SIDE PER 00Z RAOB ANALYSIS OF 850MB            
TEMPS...WITH READINGS OF -14C AT INL AND -11C AT MPX. FARTHER EAST              
ACROSS THE TROUGH...TEMPS WARM TO -9C AT CWPL AND GRB AND TO -5C AT             
APX. THE TROUGH IS ALSO FAIRLY MOIST...AT LEAST IN THE LOW LEVELS AS            
LATEST 11-3.9 UM IMAGERY AND SFC OBS SHOWS LOW CLOUDS COVERING MUCH             
OF ONTARIO...EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ALL OF MI. CWPL SOUNDING                 
REFLECTS THIS BY SATURATION FROM THE SFC TO 850MB. THIS MOISTURE...             
COMBINED WITH THE COOL AIR AND A BLUSTERY NORTHERLY FLOW ON SUPERIOR            
HAVE GENERATED SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS...HOWEVER MUCH OF                
THESE HAVE DIMINISHED AS OF 08Z. SYNOPTIC SNOW...ASSOCIATED WITH THE            
COLD CONVEYOR BELT AROUND A 1001MB SFC LOW IN SRN LAKE HURON...IS               
MOSTLY CONFINED TO LOWER MI. TO THE WEST...A SFC RIDGE EXTENDS FROM             
MN INTO NW ONTARIO...WHICH IS LOCATED JUST TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER              
RIDGE AXIS IN EASTERN MANITOBA. 00Z BIS SOUNDING SHOWS THE DRY AIR              
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC RIDGE...WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 40C OR             
GREATER BTWN 700-850MB. THIS DRY AIR HAS BEEN MAKING IT INTO THE                
CWA...NOTED BY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE NW HALF OF WESTERN LAKE              
SUPERIOR AND LOWERING DEWPOINTS OVER THE CWA (26F NOW AT STDM4 AND              
28 AT P53). THIS DRIER AIR MAY HAVE BEEN THE CAUSE OF THE END OF THE            
LAKE ENHANCED PCPN...IN ADDITION TO THE FACT THAT THE AIRMASS IS NOT            
THAT COLD TO BEGIN WITH AS NOTED BY THE 00Z APX 850MB TEMP. WEST OF             
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS A SHRTWV TROUGH CROSSING                 
SASKATCHEWAN.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS PCPN CHANCES THROUGH FRI...GIVEN LATEST                
RADAR IMAGERY NOT NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE AS EARLIER EXPECTED.                     
TODAY...UPPER LOW NEAR DETROIT IS PROGGED TO SLIDE EASTWARD INTO PA             
THIS AFTN AND THEN INTO WRN NEW YORK STATE BY 00Z. WITH THE LOW                 
MOVING FARTHER AWAY FROM HERE...THE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR NW AND THE SFC            
RIDGE IS ALLOWED TO BUILD INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THEREFORE...              
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE CWA. GIVEN THE FACT THAT             
LITTLE PCPN IS OCCURRING ON RADAR AT THE MOMENT AND FURTHER DRY AIR             
ENTERING THE CWA...HAVE DRIED OUT THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. MODELS                
HAVE BEEN OVERDOING THE AMOUNT OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM THIS                    
EVENT...AND EVEN THE LATEST 06Z RUNS CONTINUE TO DO SO...BUT TRENDS             
FROM THE MODELS ARE SHOWING LESS QPF. STILL HAVE MAINTAINED A DECENT            
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER FOR TODAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTH CENTRAL             
AND EASTERN CWA FROM MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A LOWERING INVERSION.               
OVER THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL...SOME OF THE LAKE EFFECT COULD                 
CLEAR OUT...BUT MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV IN                   
SASKATCHEWAN ARE EXPECTED TO DROPPING IN DURING THE AFTN. COLDER                
850MB AIR IN OVER THE CWA AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF            
HEATING TODAY. READINGS WILL END UP A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN                   
YESTERDAY.                                                                      
TONIGHT...SHRTWV CURRENTLY OVER SASKATCHEWAN IS PROGGED TO DROP                 
SOUTH INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z WED AS IT DIGS INTO THE                 
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. IMPACTS FROM THIS SHRTWV             
SHOULD BE MOSTLY THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF IT...SINCE DRY AIR                
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER WESTERN LAKE                
SUPERIOR. TO THE EAST...THE UPPER LOW OVER WRN NEW YORK STATE LIFTS             
TO THE NW IN RESPONSE TO STRONG RIDGING BUILT AHEAD OF IT IN THE                
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE UPPER LOW IS A BIT TOO FAR EAST TO HAVE MUCH            
IMPACT OVER THE CWA...BUT A PERSISTENT NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL            
BE CONTINUING DOWN EASTERN SUPERIOR. SOUNDINGS FOR ERY DO NOT LOOK              
THAT FAVORABLE FOR PCPN...WITH ONLY A 1000-3000 FT THICK LAYER OF               
CLOUD DUE TO THE LOW INVERSION. THEREFORE HAVE LOWERED POPS TO 20               
FOR THE EASTERN CWA. WAS TEMPTED TO REMOVE POPS ENTIRELY GIVEN                  
LACKLUSTER PERFORMANCE OF PCPN CURRENTLY...BUT THE DROP FROM 50 IS              
TOO MUCH FOR ONE FORECAST. NEEDLESS TO SAY THERE SHOULD STILL BE                
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER BETWEEN THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND THE TRAPPED               
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THESE CLOUDS WILL HELP HOLD TEMPS UP...                     
ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN CWA WHERE THE NORTH FLOW CONTINUES TO                 
BRING WARMER AIR IN OFF EASTERN SUPERIOR. COLDEST READINGS EXPECTED             
IN GOGEBIC AND IRON COUNTIES...WHERE A PERIOD OF CLEARING IS                    
POSSIBLE AFTER THE MID CLOUDS EXIT LATE TONIGHT. READINGS THERE                 
COULD DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS AS SUGGESTED BY MET/MAV GUIDANCE.               
WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW IN FAR SE ONTARIO LIFTS A BIT FARTHER TO THE              
NW...BUT STILL WELL AWAY FROM HERE. SHRTWVS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW             
ARE ALSO FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM HERE COMPARED TO WHAT IT LOOKED LIKE              
YESTERDAY SUCH THAT NO SYNOPTIC PCPN IS EXPECTED. PERHAPS SOME SNOW             
GETS INTO THE WAWA ONTARIO AREA LATER IN THE AFTN AS THE 00Z NAM                
SUGGESTS...BUT THAT WOULD BE IT FOR THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE                  
SYNOPTIC SNOW. MODELS ALSO SHOW SOME LIGHT PCPN COMING OFF EASTERN              
LAKE SUPERIOR...SIMILAR TO TONIGHT...WITH COLD ENOUGH AIR TO                    
GENERATE LAKE ENHANCED OR LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION. HAVE DECIDED TO            
KEEP SOME 20 POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN CWA...BUT AGAIN               
COULD SEE IT BEING DRY AS WELL SEEING WHAT IS HAPPENING RIGHT NOW.              
ALSO...DO NOT WANT HAVE A HUGE DROP IN POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS                   
FORECAST. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE                     
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STUCK IN THE MN/WESTERN LAKE            
SUPERIOR AREA...MAINTAINING DRY WEATHER. A BIT MORE SUN COULD OCCUR             
AS WELL...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WI BORDER AWAY FROM LAKE MOISTURE                
TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION. WITH 850MB TEMPS PROGGED FROM -4C WEST             
TO -8C CENTRAL/EAST AND MORE SUN...HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE             
MID 30S...WARMEST SOUTH CENTRAL WITH DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW.                       
WED NIGHT...UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO LIFT FARTHER NORTH...WHILE TO               
THE WEST A FAIRLY STRONG SHRTWV IS SHOWN TO DROP DOWN INTO EASTERN              
NORTH DAKOTA. THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET KEEP THE SHRTWVS ROTATING                 
AROUND THE UPPER LOW FARTHER TO THE WEST THAN THE 00Z NAM...AND HAVE            
DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE MAJORITY. THIS IS REINFORCED BY THE FACT THAT             
THE SHRTWV TROUGH DROPPING DOWN INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD                
PUSH RIDGING TOWARDS UPPER MI...NOT ALLOWING THE UPPER LOW TO                   
RETREAT WESTWARD. SO IT COMES DOWN TO LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED PCPN                 
AGAIN...WITH 20 POPS CONFINED TO THE EASTERN CWA. THE WEST AND                  
CENTRAL AREAS CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY THE SFC RIDGE...WHICH GETS            
A PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING FORMS AHEAD OF               
THE SHRTWV. THIS MEANS THAT THE WEST AND CENTRAL REMAIN DRY WITH                
SOME CLOUDS AROUND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. SHOULD THESE CLOUDS NOT                   
EXIST...WILL NEED TO WATCH TEMPS INLAND...ESPECIALLY WITH THE SFC               
RIDGE BUILDING IN. HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF UPPER TEENS INLAND WITH            
20S ELSEWHERE...BUT IF SKIES CLEAR THEN LOW TEENS AS SUGGESTED BY               
MEX COOP GUIDANCE WOULD BE MORE REALISTIC.                                      
THU THROUGH FRI...THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST IS DOMINATED BY THAT              
SHRTWV TROUGH THAT DROPPED DOWN INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. ALREADY              
THIS TROUGH IS FASTER COMPARED TO WHAT THE 00Z RUNS FROM YESTERDAY              
SHOWED. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE SPEED OF THE TROUGH...WITH THE ECMWF             
AND UKMET FASTER COMPARED WITH THE GFS/NAM. HPC PREFERENCE WAS TO               
FOLLOW THE FASTER SCENARIO...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE FASTER                 
MOTION TO BEGIN WITH. THIS TROUGH SHOULD CROSS INTO CENTRAL WI BY               
00Z FRI...THEN HEAD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY 12Z FRI. SINCE              
THE TROUGH IS GOING JUST TO OUR SOUTH...THE TRACK IS FAVORABLE FOR A            
FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF SNOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA. BEST GUESS                 
TIMING FOR THE BAND WOULD BE BTWN 18Z AND 06Z. INCLUDED POPS IN THE             
FORECAST...GENERALLY 30-50 FOR NOW...BUT IF TRENDS CONTINUE MORE                
INCREASES WILL BE NEEDED. SINCE THE TROUGH IS A FAST MOVER AND DOES             
NOT HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SINCE IT IS COMING OUT OF             
CENTRAL CANADA INSTEAD OF THE SRN PLAINS...ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS             
OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED. IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRTWV...COOLER AIR FILTERS            
FOR LATER THU NIGHT INTO FRI...WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND              
-10C. THEREFORE...SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOULD START UP...MOSTLY                     
AFFECTING THE NW FLOW SNOWBELTS. HIGHS ON THU WILL BE SLIGHTLY                  
COOLER THAN WED SINCE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY APPROACH WITH              
THE TROUGH. LOOK FOR FRI TO BE A LITTLE COOLER TOO AS THE COLD                  
ADVECTION STARTS UP.                                                            
NO CHANGES MADE BEYOND FRI. LOOKS LIKE A GENERAL LAKE EFFECT PATTERN            
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH GENERAL TROUGHING SETTING UP OVER THE GREAT               
LAKES AND 850MB TEMPS IN THE -10 TO -12C RANGE. MEAN WIND DIRECTION             
LOOKS TO BE NW...SO NW FLOW SNOWBELTS WOULD HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE              
FOR LAKE EFFECT. HIGHS AND LOWS EXPECTED TO STAY AROUND NORMAL GIVEN            
THE 850MB READINGS.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
OVERALL...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL AT KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS                    
FCST PERIOD. SOME LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY             
AT KSAW WITH CONVERGENT NRLY UPSLOPING FLOW. THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT            
COLD AIR SHOULD LIMIT INTENSITY WITH ONLY MINOR VSBY REDUCTION INTO             
THE MVFR RANGE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER INVERSION WILL KEEP            
MVFR CIGS AT BOTH KCMX AND KSAW THROUGH TUESDAY.                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
LOW PRES JUST E OF LAKE HURON WILL MEANDER E ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT             
LAKES REGION THRU WED. AS THIS OCCURS...NRLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY               
DECREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT. OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...EXPECT 20-30KT             
WINDS TO DECREASE TO 15-25KT THIS AFTN AND TO 10-20KT TONIGHT. THERE            
MAY BE A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE THRU MID MORNING...BUT LACK OF            
COLD AIR ADVECTION TO ENHANCE MIXING SUGGESTS POTENTIAL IS VERY                 
MINIMAL. OVER THE W...WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 5-15KT TODAY AS HIGH               
PRES RIDGE ARRIVES. PRES GRADIENT RELAXES ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE WED            
NIGHT INTO THU AS A TROF MOVES INTO THE UPPER LAKES. OVER THE NEXT 5            
DAYS...THE LIGHTEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. IN THE            
WAKE OF THE TROF FRI/SAT...NWRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE                   
15-30KT RANGE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AGAIN OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE            
SUPERIOR.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...AJ                                                        
AVIATION...JLB                                                                  
MARINE...ROLFSON                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
120 PM EST MON NOV 24 2008                                                      
UPDATED FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE                                                    
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF WESTERN ONTARIO                
TOWARDS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING. EVENTUALLY UPPER LOW                
WILL MERGE WITH S/WV OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MI FORMING BROADER UPPER LOW            
OVER SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WEAK SFC LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN                 
LOWER MI WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD TO SOUTHERN LAKE HURON BY THE END OF              
THE DAY.  BACK EDGE OF LIGHT SNOW FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THESE                   
FEATURES HAS MOVED INTO LAKE MI.  BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW THIS               
AFTERNOON WILL BE EAST OF A MANISTIQUE TO NEWBERRY LINE AND EVEN                
THERE AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. AS MAIN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD            
ACROSS FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR EXPECT FLURRIES/-SHSN TO ACCOMPANY             
IT. WITH A SLIGHTLY WESTWARD UPPER LOW TRACK EXPECT BEST CHANCE OF              
THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WITH CENTRAL AREAS                  
REMAINING PRECIP FREE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. 85H TEMPS WILL FALL              
INTO THE -8 TO -10 RANGE OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND AS WINDS                
BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY DO EXPECT SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO OCCUR              
IN FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS IN THE WEST. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING            
MORE THAN AN INCH OR AT MOST 2 OF ACCUMULATION DURING THE DAY TODAY.            
OVERALL TEMP FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS             
TO IT.                                                                          
.SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 425 AM EST                                               
08Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING               
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. INTO SW CANADA...RIDGING IN THE OHIO VALLEY               
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...AND A TROUGH FROM MANITOBA SOUTHWARD             
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITHIN THE TROUGH...AN UPPER LOW IS LOCATED            
AT THE FAR NORTH END OF LAKE WINNIPEG. THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD             
OF THE UPPER LOW EXTENDS FROM MO ACROSS UPPER MI AND INTO NE                    
ONTARIO. SOME -SN IS FALLING OUT OF THE CONVEYOR BELT OVER THE                  
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA...ALSO IN THE SAME PLACE WHERE BETTER                
MOISTURE IS BASED ON 00Z RAOBS FROM MPX...COMPARED TO GRB AND APX               
WHICH REFLECT THE DRIER AIRMASS OVER EASTERN UPPER MI. A DRY SLOT IS            
EVIDENT ON 11-3.9 U IMAGERY OVER NE MN...BUT FARTHER NW OVER NW MN              
INTO MANITOBA IS THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT (CCB) CLOUDS ON THE BACK                
SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. 850MB TEMPS UNDER THE CCB WERE AROUND -14C               
BASED ON THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM CYQD...QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN THE               
-1C AT MPX...-4C AT INL AND -6C AT CWPL. TO THE SW OF UPPER MI ON               
WATER VAPOR...A SHRTWV IS MOVING THROUGH SRN IA. ASSOCIATED WITH THE            
SHRTWV IS A 1015MB SFC LOW IN SE IA. A TROUGH EXTENDS NE FROM THE               
LOW ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER MI...THEN HEADS BACK TO THE NW AS A COLD               
FRONT WHERE IT CONNECTS UP TO A 1008MB LOW IN FAR NW ONTARIO.                   
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION... ISSUED AT 425 AM EST                                             
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THE NEXT TWO DAYS...              
ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE.                                      
TODAY...UPPER LOW AT THE NORTH END OF LAKE WINNIPEG IS PROGGED TO               
SLIDE A LITTLE BIT FARTHER WEST COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS 00Z                      
RUNS...MOVING INTO WRN WI AT 00Z TUE. THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR SEEN             
UPSTREAM AT CYQD WILL STAY UNDER OR TO THE WEST OF THE UPPER LOW.               
HOWEVER...SOME COOLING IS STILL EXPECTED TO COME INTO UPPER MICHIGAN            
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW. NAM/GFS SHOW 850MB TEMPS FALLING            
TO -8 TO -10C OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...WHICH WOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH               
FOR LAKE ENHANCED OR PERHAPS EVEN PURE LAKE EFFECT. WITH NW WINDS...            
IT WOULD SEEM LIKELY FOR SNOW IN WRN UPPER MI...ESPECIALLY IN                   
UPSLOPE AREAS. HAVE RAISED POPS TO DEFINITE IN THE UPSLOPE AREA FROM            
IWD TO ROCKLAND. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SNOW TO WATER RATIOS SOMEWHERE               
AROUND 10 TO 1...DUE TO MAJORITY OF VERTICAL MOTION BELOW THE                   
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE...WHICH WITH A BLEND OF NAM/LOCAL WRF-ARW            
RUN/GFS FOR QPF RESULTS IN 1 TO 2 INCHES. THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR                
CROSSING CENTRAL AND LAKE SUPERIOR IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN...                
WITH THE GFS SHOWING -8 TO PERHAPS -10C AT 00Z TUE...COMPARED TO THE            
NAM AND LOCAL WRF-ARW WHICH HAVE -4 TO -6C. EITHER SCENARIO SEEMS AT            
LEAST POSSIBLE FOR LAKE ENHANCED PCPN...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT THERE             
WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND IN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF            
THE UPPER LOW. THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE WARMER SCENARIO WOULD RESULT             
IN POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TO MIX IN...PARTICULARLY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR               
AND OVER LAND NEAR THE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. GIVEN 00Z SOUNDING FROM              
CWPL UPSTREAM WAS -6C...WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE NAM/LOCAL WRF-ARW. THE            
WARMER SCENARIO ALSO MEANS THAT ANY SNOW THAT FALLS INLAND WILL ALSO            
BE WETTER WITH SNOW TO WATER RATIOS LESS THAN 10 TO 1. COULD BE AN              
INCH...PERHAPS TWO OF THIS WET SNOW IN THE EASTERN CWA. THE CENTRAL             
U.P. LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY TODAY...WITH SOME SUN AS THE DRY-SLOT               
WORKS IN. A FEW -SHSN COULD WORK IN OVER MQT COUNTY OFF OF WRN                  
SUPERIOR IN THE AFTN...BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT FOR CENTRAL UPPER MI.               
ALTHOUGH COLD AIR IS FLOWING IN...EXPECT HIGHS AGAIN TODAY IN THE               
30S...WARMEST SOUTH CENTRAL WITH DOWNSLOPING NW WINDS AND NEAR LAKE             
SUPERIOR WITH HEAT FLUX OFF THE WARMER WATER.                                   
TONIGHT...UPPER LOW MOVES SE INTO OHIO BY 12Z TUE...COMING CLOSE TO             
PHASING WITH THE SHRTWV CURRENTLY HEADING EAST OUT OF SRN IA. AS A              
RESULT...THE SFC LOWS THAT ARE CURRENTLY IN NW ONTARIO AND SE IA END            
UP MERGING TOGETHER INTO A DEEPER 1003 MB LOW NEAR LONDON ONTARIO AT            
12Z TUE. THE DEEPENING LOW HELPS TO STRENGTHEN NORTH TO NE WINDS                
OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. NORMALLY THIS WOULD SPELL COLDER AIR                
MOVING IN. HOWEVER...THE AIR COMING IN IS EITHER JUST AS COOL OR                
PERHAPS EVEN SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE AIR THAT IS IN OVER THE CWA AT            
00Z PER 850MB TEMP PROGS. THE REASON IS THAT THE DEEPENING LOW HELPS            
TO PULL WARMER AIR IN OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO ITS CIRCULATION. SO WITH            
LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN 850MB TEMPS...LAKE ENHANCEMENT SHOULD BE THE             
RULE...POSSIBLY PURE LAKE EFFECT IN THE WRN U.P.. PROBLEM IN THE WRN            
U.P. COMPARED TO TODAY IS THAT WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER                  
LOW...INVERSIONS FALL WITH THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES. THE QUESTION             
IS IF THE -10C ISOTHERM DRIES OUT...WHICH WOULD CHANGE THE PCPN FROM            
SNOW TO FZDZ GIVEN THAT AN UPSLOPING WIND CONTINUES. RIGHT NOW ONLY             
OUR LOCAL WRF-ARW RUN SHOWS THIS OCCURRING...WHILE THE NAM/GFS SHOW             
THE -10C ISOTHERM REMAINING MOIST. THEREFORE HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP               
THE P-TYPE AS SNOW. IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST...INVERSIONS WILL                   
GRADUALLY LOWER AS WELL...BUT NOT AS QUICK. SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER             
THAT THE P-TYPE WILL STAY AS SNOW INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. AMOUNTS            
OF SNOW SHOULD NOT BE THAT IMPRESSIVE...MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO GIVEN              
LOW SNOW TO WATER RATIOS. REGARDING AREAS NEAR THE LAKE...THE WARMER            
NAM/LOCAL WRF-ARW RUNS SUGGEST HOLDING ON TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX THROUGH            
AT LEAST 09Z. IF THE PCPN IS GENERALLY LIGHT...THEN MORE OF THE PCPN            
SHOULD FALL AS RAIN. GIVEN THE WARMER 850MB TEMPS AND PLENTY OF                 
CLOUDS...ALONG WITH A FLOW OF AIR OFF THE WARM LAKE SUPERIOR                    
WATER...TEMPS SHOULD NOT DROP TOO MUCH. COLDEST READINGS EXPECTED IN            
THE INTERIOR WEST...CLOSEST TO THE COLDEST 850MB AIR...BUT EVEN                 
THESE SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE MID 20S.                                            
TUESDAY...UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO SHIFT INTO NORTH CENTRAL PA BY 00Z            
WED...WITH THE SFC LOW MOVING TO THE LAKE ONTARIO AREA. THIS ALLOWS             
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO BUILD INTO WESTERN UPPER MI BY 00Z...IN                
ADDITION TO CONTINUED MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE DAY. THE               
RIDGE SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR IN...LIKELY TO THE WESTERN CWA...ENOUGH            
TO END PCPN BY EARLY AFTN. HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA                
WILL STAY IN LOW CLOUDS TRAPPED UNDER THE LOWERING INVERSION...                 
ENHANCED BY LAKE SUPERIOR GIVEN COOL AIR BELOW THE INVERSION. PCPN              
TYPE IS VERY TRICKY...AS ALL MODELS SHOW THE -10C LAYER DRYING OUT              
THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN A NORTH WIND OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...SET            
UP IS FAVORABLE FOR UPSLOPE. SO WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE                  
SUPERIOR AND UPSLOPE FLOW PRODUCING VERTICAL MOTION...SOME PCPN                 
SHOULD OCCUR OUT OF THE CLOUDS. RIGHT NOW HAVE GONE WITH EITHER SNOW            
SHOWERS OR DZ/FZDZ (FZDZ OVER INLAND AREAS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN).             
POPS ARE HIGHEST IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL IN THE               
MORNING...THEN DECREASE IN THE AFTN AS THE DRIER AIR TRIES TO WORK              
IN. GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND 850MB TEMPS THAT ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN             
TODAY...HIGHS WILL ALSO END UP SLIGHTLY COOLER. STILL...MOST                    
LOCATIONS SHOULD BE IN THE 30S...WARMEST IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF              
THE SOUTH CENTRAL.                                                              
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...PER THE UKMET/NAM/GFS/ECMWF...UPPER MI LOOKS            
TO BE CAUGHT IN SQUEEZE-PLAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER CANADA             
AND THE NORTHERN U.S. BECOMES BLOCKED. THIS BLOCKING LOOKS TO BE A              
RESULT OF STRONG RIDGING BUILT UP AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW TO OUR                 
EAST. IN FACT...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TAKING THE UPPER LOW               
BACK TO THE NW DURING THIS PERIOD...BASICALLY PULLED BY THE CURRENT             
SHRTWV CROSSING SRN IA. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR UPPER MI IS A PERSISTENT            
CHANCE FOR -SN ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF UPPER MI CLOSER TO THE DEEPER            
MOISTURE AROUND THE UPPER LOW...WHILE THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI IS              
DRY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW INVERSIONS              
AND THE SURFACE RIDGE. STILL MAINTAINED THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME                 
DZ/FZDZ OVER THE EASTERN CWA TUE NIGHT SINCE IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT            
THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN UNTIL WED. ANY PCPN LOOKS TO BE                
LIGHT AT THE CURRENT TIME DUE TO LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WITH              
THE UPPER LOW. GIVEN THE BLOCKED PATTERN...NO SIGNIFICANT COOLING OR            
WARMING IS PLANNED. THEREFORE... LOWS AND HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE              
ABOUT THE SAME THROUGH THE PERIOD...IN THE 20S AND 30S RESPECTIVELY.            
BEYOND THU...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. 00Z ECMWF/GFS/GFS                     
ENSEMBLES ARE ALL IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF             
A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR FRI              
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS TROUGH IS FORMED BY A COMBINATION OF THE                 
UPPER LOW TO OUR EAST ON THU AND ANOTHER TROUGH DROPPING DOWN OUT OF            
CENTRAL CANADA. THIS MEANS THAT GRADUAL COOLING WILL OCCUR...COLD               
ENOUGH TO SET UP PURE LAKE EFFECT BY THE WEEKEND.                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
OVERALL...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS              
FCST PERIOD. UPPER LOW DROPPING ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL               
BRING SOME -SHSN TO KCMX THIS AFTN AND KSAW THIS EVENING. SOME LAKE             
ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY AT KSAW AS CONVERGENT NRLY                 
UPSLOPING FLOW DEVELOPS. MAY SEE IFR CONDITIONS FOR A TIME LATE                 
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER                    
INVERSION WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS AT BOTH KCMX AND KSAW THROUGH 18Z                 
TUESDAY.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
A LOW PRES TROF EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO ACROSS THE UPPER                
GREAT LAKES TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL CONSOLIDATE                
INTO A LOW PRES CENTER OVER SRN LAKE HURON THIS EVENING. AS THIS                
OCCURS...NRLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS            
AFTN AND MORE SO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECT NRLY WINDS IN               
THE 20-30KT RANGE TONIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE E HALF              
OF THE LAKE. IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS            
COULD OCCUR...BUT SINCE THERE IS A LACK OF COLD AIR ADVECTION TO                
INCREASE MIXING...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF GALES. PROGRESSION            
OF THE MAIN WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL SLOW TO A CRAWL TUE THRU FRI. WITH             
LOW PRES TO THE E AND HIGH PRES TO THE W...N TO NW WINDS WILL BE THE            
RULE TUE THRU FRI WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAINING OVER THE E HALF            
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. OVERALL...AFTER TUE...WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN            
THE 15-25KT RANGE OVER THE E AND 10-20KT OVER THE W.                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...MZ                                                                     
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...AJ                                                        
AVIATION...MZ                                                                   
MARINE...ROLFSON                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1030 AM EST MON NOV 24 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF WESTERN ONTARIO                
TOWARDS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING. EVENTUALLY UPPER LOW                
WILL MERGE WITH S/WV OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MI FORMING BROADER UPPER LOW            
OVER SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WEAK SFC LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN                 
LOWER MI WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD TO SOUTHERN LAKE HURON BY THE END OF              
THE DAY.  BACK EDGE OF LIGHT SNOW FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THESE                   
FEATURES HAS MOVED INTO LAKE MI.  BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW THIS               
AFTERNOON WILL BE EAST OF A MANISTIQUE TO NEWBERRY LINE AND EVEN                
THERE AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. AS MAIN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD            
ACROSS FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR EXPECT FLURRIES/-SHSN TO ACCOMPANY             
IT. WITH A SLIGHTLY WESTWARD UPPER LOW TRACK EXPECT BEST CHANCE OF              
THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WITH CENTRAL AREAS                  
REMAINING PRECIP FREE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. 85H TEMPS WILL FALL              
INTO THE -8 TO -10 RANGE OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND AS WINDS                
BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY DO EXPECT SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO OCCUR              
IN FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS IN THE WEST. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING            
MORE THAN AN INCH OR AT MOST 2 OF ACCUMULATION DURING THE DAY TODAY.            
OVERALL TEMP FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS             
TO IT.                                                                          
.SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 425 AM EST                                               
08Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING               
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. INTO SW CANADA...RIDGING IN THE OHIO VALLEY               
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...AND A TROUGH FROM MANITOBA SOUTHWARD             
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITHIN THE TROUGH...AN UPPER LOW IS LOCATED            
AT THE FAR NORTH END OF LAKE WINNIPEG. THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD             
OF THE UPPER LOW EXTENDS FROM MO ACROSS UPPER MI AND INTO NE                    
ONTARIO. SOME -SN IS FALLING OUT OF THE CONVEYOR BELT OVER THE                  
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA...ALSO IN THE SAME PLACE WHERE BETTER                
MOISTURE IS BASED ON 00Z RAOBS FROM MPX...COMPARED TO GRB AND APX               
WHICH REFLECT THE DRIER AIRMASS OVER EASTERN UPPER MI. A DRY SLOT IS            
EVIDENT ON 11-3.9 U IMAGERY OVER NE MN...BUT FARTHER NW OVER NW MN              
INTO MANITOBA IS THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT (CCB) CLOUDS ON THE BACK                
SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. 850MB TEMPS UNDER THE CCB WERE AROUND -14C               
BASED ON THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM CYQD...QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN THE               
-1C AT MPX...-4C AT INL AND -6C AT CWPL. TO THE SW OF UPPER MI ON               
WATER VAPOR...A SHRTWV IS MOVING THROUGH SRN IA. ASSOCIATED WITH THE            
SHRTWV IS A 1015MB SFC LOW IN SE IA. A TROUGH EXTENDS NE FROM THE               
LOW ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER MI...THEN HEADS BACK TO THE NW AS A COLD               
FRONT WHERE IT CONNECTS UP TO A 1008MB LOW IN FAR NW ONTARIO.                   
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION... ISSUED AT 425 AM EST                                             
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THE NEXT TWO DAYS...              
ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE.                                      
TODAY...UPPER LOW AT THE NORTH END OF LAKE WINNIPEG IS PROGGED TO               
SLIDE A LITTLE BIT FARTHER WEST COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS 00Z                      
RUNS...MOVING INTO WRN WI AT 00Z TUE. THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR SEEN             
UPSTREAM AT CYQD WILL STAY UNDER OR TO THE WEST OF THE UPPER LOW.               
HOWEVER...SOME COOLING IS STILL EXPECTED TO COME INTO UPPER MICHIGAN            
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW. NAM/GFS SHOW 850MB TEMPS FALLING            
TO -8 TO -10C OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...WHICH WOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH               
FOR LAKE ENHANCED OR PERHAPS EVEN PURE LAKE EFFECT. WITH NW WINDS...            
IT WOULD SEEM LIKELY FOR SNOW IN WRN UPPER MI...ESPECIALLY IN                   
UPSLOPE AREAS. HAVE RAISED POPS TO DEFINITE IN THE UPSLOPE AREA FROM            
IWD TO ROCKLAND. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SNOW TO WATER RATIOS SOMEWHERE               
AROUND 10 TO 1...DUE TO MAJORITY OF VERTICAL MOTION BELOW THE                   
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE...WHICH WITH A BLEND OF NAM/LOCAL WRF-ARW            
RUN/GFS FOR QPF RESULTS IN 1 TO 2 INCHES. THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR                
CROSSING CENTRAL AND LAKE SUPERIOR IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN...                
WITH THE GFS SHOWING -8 TO PERHAPS -10C AT 00Z TUE...COMPARED TO THE            
NAM AND LOCAL WRF-ARW WHICH HAVE -4 TO -6C. EITHER SCENARIO SEEMS AT            
LEAST POSSIBLE FOR LAKE ENHANCED PCPN...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT THERE             
WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND IN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF            
THE UPPER LOW. THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE WARMER SCENARIO WOULD RESULT             
IN POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TO MIX IN...PARTICULARLY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR               
AND OVER LAND NEAR THE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. GIVEN 00Z SOUNDING FROM              
CWPL UPSTREAM WAS -6C...WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE NAM/LOCAL WRF-ARW. THE            
WARMER SCENARIO ALSO MEANS THAT ANY SNOW THAT FALLS INLAND WILL ALSO            
BE WETTER WITH SNOW TO WATER RATIOS LESS THAN 10 TO 1. COULD BE AN              
INCH...PERHAPS TWO OF THIS WET SNOW IN THE EASTERN CWA. THE CENTRAL             
U.P. LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY TODAY...WITH SOME SUN AS THE DRY-SLOT               
WORKS IN. A FEW -SHSN COULD WORK IN OVER MQT COUNTY OFF OF WRN                  
SUPERIOR IN THE AFTN...BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT FOR CENTRAL UPPER MI.               
ALTHOUGH COLD AIR IS FLOWING IN...EXPECT HIGHS AGAIN TODAY IN THE               
30S...WARMEST SOUTH CENTRAL WITH DOWNSLOPING NW WINDS AND NEAR LAKE             
SUPERIOR WITH HEAT FLUX OFF THE WARMER WATER.                                   
TONIGHT...UPPER LOW MOVES SE INTO OHIO BY 12Z TUE...COMING CLOSE TO             
PHASING WITH THE SHRTWV CURRENTLY HEADING EAST OUT OF SRN IA. AS A              
RESULT...THE SFC LOWS THAT ARE CURRENTLY IN NW ONTARIO AND SE IA END            
UP MERGING TOGETHER INTO A DEEPER 1003 MB LOW NEAR LONDON ONTARIO AT            
12Z TUE. THE DEEPENING LOW HELPS TO STRENGTHEN NORTH TO NE WINDS                
OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. NORMALLY THIS WOULD SPELL COLDER AIR                
MOVING IN. HOWEVER...THE AIR COMING IN IS EITHER JUST AS COOL OR                
PERHAPS EVEN SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE AIR THAT IS IN OVER THE CWA AT            
00Z PER 850MB TEMP PROGS. THE REASON IS THAT THE DEEPENING LOW HELPS            
TO PULL WARMER AIR IN OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO ITS CIRCULATION. SO WITH            
LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN 850MB TEMPS...LAKE ENHANCEMENT SHOULD BE THE             
RULE...POSSIBLY PURE LAKE EFFECT IN THE WRN U.P.. PROBLEM IN THE WRN            
U.P. COMPARED TO TODAY IS THAT WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER                  
LOW...INVERSIONS FALL WITH THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES. THE QUESTION             
IS IF THE -10C ISOTHERM DRIES OUT...WHICH WOULD CHANGE THE PCPN FROM            
SNOW TO FZDZ GIVEN THAT AN UPSLOPING WIND CONTINUES. RIGHT NOW ONLY             
OUR LOCAL WRF-ARW RUN SHOWS THIS OCCURRING...WHILE THE NAM/GFS SHOW             
THE -10C ISOTHERM REMAINING MOIST. THEREFORE HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP               
THE P-TYPE AS SNOW. IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST...INVERSIONS WILL                   
GRADUALLY LOWER AS WELL...BUT NOT AS QUICK. SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER             
THAT THE P-TYPE WILL STAY AS SNOW INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. AMOUNTS            
OF SNOW SHOULD NOT BE THAT IMPRESSIVE...MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO GIVEN              
LOW SNOW TO WATER RATIOS. REGARDING AREAS NEAR THE LAKE...THE WARMER            
NAM/LOCAL WRF-ARW RUNS SUGGEST HOLDING ON TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX THROUGH            
AT LEAST 09Z. IF THE PCPN IS GENERALLY LIGHT...THEN MORE OF THE PCPN            
SHOULD FALL AS RAIN. GIVEN THE WARMER 850MB TEMPS AND PLENTY OF                 
CLOUDS...ALONG WITH A FLOW OF AIR OFF THE WARM LAKE SUPERIOR                    
WATER...TEMPS SHOULD NOT DROP TOO MUCH. COLDEST READINGS EXPECTED IN            
THE INTERIOR WEST...CLOSEST TO THE COLDEST 850MB AIR...BUT EVEN                 
THESE SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE MID 20S.                                            
TUESDAY...UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO SHIFT INTO NORTH CENTRAL PA BY 00Z            
WED...WITH THE SFC LOW MOVING TO THE LAKE ONTARIO AREA. THIS ALLOWS             
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO BUILD INTO WESTERN UPPER MI BY 00Z...IN                
ADDITION TO CONTINUED MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE DAY. THE               
RIDGE SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR IN...LIKELY TO THE WESTERN CWA...ENOUGH            
TO END PCPN BY EARLY AFTN. HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA                
WILL STAY IN LOW CLOUDS TRAPPED UNDER THE LOWERING INVERSION...                 
ENHANCED BY LAKE SUPERIOR GIVEN COOL AIR BELOW THE INVERSION. PCPN              
TYPE IS VERY TRICKY...AS ALL MODELS SHOW THE -10C LAYER DRYING OUT              
THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN A NORTH WIND OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...SET            
UP IS FAVORABLE FOR UPSLOPE. SO WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE                  
SUPERIOR AND UPSLOPE FLOW PRODUCING VERTICAL MOTION...SOME PCPN                 
SHOULD OCCUR OUT OF THE CLOUDS. RIGHT NOW HAVE GONE WITH EITHER SNOW            
SHOWERS OR DZ/FZDZ (FZDZ OVER INLAND AREAS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN).             
POPS ARE HIGHEST IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL IN THE               
MORNING...THEN DECREASE IN THE AFTN AS THE DRIER AIR TRIES TO WORK              
IN. GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND 850MB TEMPS THAT ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN             
TODAY...HIGHS WILL ALSO END UP SLIGHTLY COOLER. STILL...MOST                    
LOCATIONS SHOULD BE IN THE 30S...WARMEST IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF              
THE SOUTH CENTRAL.                                                              
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...PER THE UKMET/NAM/GFS/ECMWF...UPPER MI LOOKS            
TO BE CAUGHT IN SQUEEZE-PLAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER CANADA             
AND THE NORTHERN U.S. BECOMES BLOCKED. THIS BLOCKING LOOKS TO BE A              
RESULT OF STRONG RIDGING BUILT UP AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW TO OUR                 
EAST. IN FACT...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TAKING THE UPPER LOW               
BACK TO THE NW DURING THIS PERIOD...BASICALLY PULLED BY THE CURRENT             
SHRTWV CROSSING SRN IA. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR UPPER MI IS A PERSISTENT            
CHANCE FOR -SN ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF UPPER MI CLOSER TO THE DEEPER            
MOISTURE AROUND THE UPPER LOW...WHILE THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI IS              
DRY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW INVERSIONS              
AND THE SURFACE RIDGE. STILL MAINTAINED THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME                 
DZ/FZDZ OVER THE EASTERN CWA TUE NIGHT SINCE IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT            
THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN UNTIL WED. ANY PCPN LOOKS TO BE                
LIGHT AT THE CURRENT TIME DUE TO LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WITH              
THE UPPER LOW. GIVEN THE BLOCKED PATTERN...NO SIGNIFICANT COOLING OR            
WARMING IS PLANNED. THEREFORE... LOWS AND HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE              
ABOUT THE SAME THROUGH THE PERIOD...IN THE 20S AND 30S RESPECTIVELY.            
BEYOND THU...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. 00Z ECMWF/GFS/GFS                     
ENSEMBLES ARE ALL IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF             
A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR FRI              
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS TROUGH IS FORMED BY A COMBINATION OF THE                 
UPPER LOW TO OUR EAST ON THU AND ANOTHER TROUGH DROPPING DOWN OUT OF            
CENTRAL CANADA. THIS MEANS THAT GRADUAL COOLING WILL OCCUR...COLD               
ENOUGH TO SET UP PURE LAKE EFFECT BY THE WEEKEND.                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
OVERALL...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS              
FCST PERIOD. WEDGE OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR SWEEPING INTO THE AREA                 
AHEAD OF MID/UPPER LOW DROPPING SE TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST MAY                 
RESULT IN CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT FOR A WHILE TODAY...BUT CONFIDENCE              
IS LOW IN DETERMINING A TIME PERIOD WHEN THAT MIGHT OCCUR.                      
OTHERWISE...UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO THE VCNTY WILL LIKELY BRING SOME            
-SHSN TO KCMX THIS AFTN AND KSAW THIS EVENING. SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT            
IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY AT KSAW AS CONVERGENT NRLY UPSLOPING FLOW              
DEVELOPS. MAY SEE IFR CONDITIONS FOR A TIME LATE EVENING INTO THE               
OVERNIGHT.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
A LOW PRES TROF EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO ACROSS THE UPPER                
GREAT LAKES TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL CONSOLIDATE                
INTO A LOW PRES CENTER OVER SRN LAKE HURON THIS EVENING. AS THIS                
OCCURS...NRLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS            
AFTN AND MORE SO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECT NRLY WINDS IN               
THE 20-30KT RANGE TONIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE E HALF              
OF THE LAKE. IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS            
COULD OCCUR...BUT SINCE THERE IS A LACK OF COLD AIR ADVECTION TO                
INCREASE MIXING...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF GALES. PROGRESSION            
OF THE MAIN WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL SLOW TO A CRAWL TUE THRU FRI. WITH             
LOW PRES TO THE E AND HIGH PRES TO THE W...N TO NW WINDS WILL BE THE            
RULE TUE THRU FRI WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAINING OVER THE E HALF            
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. OVERALL...AFTER TUE...WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN            
THE 15-25KT RANGE OVER THE E AND 10-20KT OVER THE W.                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...MZ                                                                     
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...AJ                                                        
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...ROLFSON                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
646 AM EST MON NOV 24 2008                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE                                
.SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 425 AM EST                                               
08Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING               
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. INTO SW CANADA...RIDGING IN THE OHIO VALLEY               
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...AND A TROUGH FROM MANITOBA SOUTHWARD             
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITHIN THE TROUGH...AN UPPER LOW IS LOCATED            
AT THE FAR NORTH END OF LAKE WINNIPEG. THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD             
OF THE UPPER LOW EXTENDS FROM MO ACROSS UPPER MI AND INTO NE                    
ONTARIO. SOME -SN IS FALLING OUT OF THE CONVEYOR BELT OVER THE                  
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA...ALSO IN THE SAME PLACE WHERE BETTER                
MOISTURE IS BASED ON 00Z RAOBS FROM MPX...COMPARED TO GRB AND APX               
WHICH REFLECT THE DRIER AIRMASS OVER EASTERN UPPER MI. A DRY SLOT IS            
EVIDENT ON 11-3.9 U IMAGERY OVER NE MN...BUT FARTHER NW OVER NW MN              
INTO MANITOBA IS THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT (CCB) CLOUDS ON THE BACK                
SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. 850MB TEMPS UNDER THE CCB WERE AROUND -14C               
BASED ON THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM CYQD...QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN THE               
-1C AT MPX...-4C AT INL AND -6C AT CWPL. TO THE SW OF UPPER MI ON               
WATER VAPOR...A SHRTWV IS MOVING THROUGH SRN IA. ASSOCIATED WITH THE            
SHRTWV IS A 1015MB SFC LOW IN SE IA. A TROUGH EXTENDS NE FROM THE               
LOW ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER MI...THEN HEADS BACK TO THE NW AS A COLD               
FRONT WHERE IT CONNECTS UP TO A 1008MB LOW IN FAR NW ONTARIO.                   
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION... ISSUED AT 425 AM EST                                             
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THE NEXT TWO DAYS...              
ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE.                                      
TODAY...UPPER LOW AT THE NORTH END OF LAKE WINNIPEG IS PROGGED TO               
SLIDE A LITTLE BIT FARTHER WEST COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS 00Z                      
RUNS...MOVING INTO WRN WI AT 00Z TUE. THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR SEEN             
UPSTREAM AT CYQD WILL STAY UNDER OR TO THE WEST OF THE UPPER LOW.               
HOWEVER...SOME COOLING IS STILL EXPECTED TO COME INTO UPPER MICHIGAN            
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW. NAM/GFS SHOW 850MB TEMPS FALLING            
TO -8 TO -10C OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...WHICH WOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH               
FOR LAKE ENHANCED OR PERHAPS EVEN PURE LAKE EFFECT. WITH NW WINDS...            
IT WOULD SEEM LIKELY FOR SNOW IN WRN UPPER MI...ESPECIALLY IN                   
UPSLOPE AREAS. HAVE RAISED POPS TO DEFINITE IN THE UPSLOPE AREA FROM            
IWD TO ROCKLAND. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SNOW TO WATER RATIOS SOMEWHERE               
AROUND 10 TO 1...DUE TO MAJORITY OF VERTICAL MOTION BELOW THE                   
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE...WHICH WITH A BLEND OF NAM/LOCAL WRF-ARW            
RUN/GFS FOR QPF RESULTS IN 1 TO 2 INCHES. THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR                
CROSSING CENTRAL AND LAKE SUPERIOR IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN...                
WITH THE GFS SHOWING -8 TO PERHAPS -10C AT 00Z TUE...COMPARED TO THE            
NAM AND LOCAL WRF-ARW WHICH HAVE -4 TO -6C. EITHER SCENARIO SEEMS AT            
LEAST POSSIBLE FOR LAKE ENHANCED PCPN...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT THERE             
WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND IN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF            
THE UPPER LOW. THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE WARMER SCENARIO WOULD RESULT             
IN POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TO MIX IN...PARTICULARLY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR               
AND OVER LAND NEAR THE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. GIVEN 00Z SOUNDING FROM              
CWPL UPSTREAM WAS -6C...WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE NAM/LOCAL WRF-ARW. THE            
WARMER SCENARIO ALSO MEANS THAT ANY SNOW THAT FALLS INLAND WILL ALSO            
BE WETTER WITH SNOW TO WATER RATIOS LESS THAN 10 TO 1. COULD BE AN              
INCH...PERHAPS TWO OF THIS WET SNOW IN THE EASTERN CWA. THE CENTRAL             
U.P. LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY TODAY...WITH SOME SUN AS THE DRY-SLOT               
WORKS IN. A FEW -SHSN COULD WORK IN OVER MQT COUNTY OFF OF WRN                  
SUPERIOR IN THE AFTN...BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT FOR CENTRAL UPPER MI.               
ALTHOUGH COLD AIR IS FLOWING IN...EXPECT HIGHS AGAIN TODAY IN THE               
30S...WARMEST SOUTH CENTRAL WITH DOWNSLOPING NW WINDS AND NEAR LAKE             
SUPERIOR WITH HEAT FLUX OFF THE WARMER WATER.                                   
TONIGHT...UPPER LOW MOVES SE INTO OHIO BY 12Z TUE...COMING CLOSE TO             
PHASING WITH THE SHRTWV CURRENTLY HEADING EAST OUT OF SRN IA. AS A              
RESULT...THE SFC LOWS THAT ARE CURRENTLY IN NW ONTARIO AND SE IA END            
UP MERGING TOGETHER INTO A DEEPER 1003 MB LOW NEAR LONDON ONTARIO AT            
12Z TUE. THE DEEPENING LOW HELPS TO STRENGTHEN NORTH TO NE WINDS                
OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. NORMALLY THIS WOULD SPELL COLDER AIR                
MOVING IN. HOWEVER...THE AIR COMING IN IS EITHER JUST AS COOL OR                
PERHAPS EVEN SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE AIR THAT IS IN OVER THE CWA AT            
00Z PER 850MB TEMP PROGS. THE REASON IS THAT THE DEEPENING LOW HELPS            
TO PULL WARMER AIR IN OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO ITS CIRCULATION. SO WITH            
LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN 850MB TEMPS...LAKE ENHANCEMENT SHOULD BE THE             
RULE...POSSIBLY PURE LAKE EFFECT IN THE WRN U.P.. PROBLEM IN THE WRN            
U.P. COMPARED TO TODAY IS THAT WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER                  
LOW...INVERSIONS FALL WITH THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES. THE QUESTION             
IS IF THE -10C ISOTHERM DRIES OUT...WHICH WOULD CHANGE THE PCPN FROM            
SNOW TO FZDZ GIVEN THAT AN UPSLOPING WIND CONTINUES. RIGHT NOW ONLY             
OUR LOCAL WRF-ARW RUN SHOWS THIS OCCURRING...WHILE THE NAM/GFS SHOW             
THE -10C ISOTHERM REMAINING MOIST. THEREFORE HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP               
THE P-TYPE AS SNOW. IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST...INVERSIONS WILL                   
GRADUALLY LOWER AS WELL...BUT NOT AS QUICK. SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER             
THAT THE P-TYPE WILL STAY AS SNOW INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. AMOUNTS            
OF SNOW SHOULD NOT BE THAT IMPRESSIVE...MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO GIVEN              
LOW SNOW TO WATER RATIOS. REGARDING AREAS NEAR THE LAKE...THE WARMER            
NAM/LOCAL WRF-ARW RUNS SUGGEST HOLDING ON TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX THROUGH            
AT LEAST 09Z. IF THE PCPN IS GENERALLY LIGHT...THEN MORE OF THE PCPN            
SHOULD FALL AS RAIN. GIVEN THE WARMER 850MB TEMPS AND PLENTY OF                 
CLOUDS...ALONG WITH A FLOW OF AIR OFF THE WARM LAKE SUPERIOR                    
WATER...TEMPS SHOULD NOT DROP TOO MUCH. COLDEST READINGS EXPECTED IN            
THE INTERIOR WEST...CLOSEST TO THE COLDEST 850MB AIR...BUT EVEN                 
THESE SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE MID 20S.                                            
TUESDAY...UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO SHIFT INTO NORTH CENTRAL PA BY 00Z            
WED...WITH THE SFC LOW MOVING TO THE LAKE ONTARIO AREA. THIS ALLOWS             
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO BUILD INTO WESTERN UPPER MI BY 00Z...IN                
ADDITION TO CONTINUED MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE DAY. THE               
RIDGE SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR IN...LIKELY TO THE WESTERN CWA...ENOUGH            
TO END PCPN BY EARLY AFTN. HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA                
WILL STAY IN LOW CLOUDS TRAPPED UNDER THE LOWERING INVERSION...                 
ENHANCED BY LAKE SUPERIOR GIVEN COOL AIR BELOW THE INVERSION. PCPN              
TYPE IS VERY TRICKY...AS ALL MODELS SHOW THE -10C LAYER DRYING OUT              
THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN A NORTH WIND OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...SET            
UP IS FAVORABLE FOR UPSLOPE. SO WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE                  
SUPERIOR AND UPSLOPE FLOW PRODUCING VERTICAL MOTION...SOME PCPN                 
SHOULD OCCUR OUT OF THE CLOUDS. RIGHT NOW HAVE GONE WITH EITHER SNOW            
SHOWERS OR DZ/FZDZ (FZDZ OVER INLAND AREAS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN).             
POPS ARE HIGHEST IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL IN THE               
MORNING...THEN DECREASE IN THE AFTN AS THE DRIER AIR TRIES TO WORK              
IN. GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND 850MB TEMPS THAT ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN             
TODAY...HIGHS WILL ALSO END UP SLIGHTLY COOLER. STILL...MOST                    
LOCATIONS SHOULD BE IN THE 30S...WARMEST IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF              
THE SOUTH CENTRAL.                                                              
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...PER THE UKMET/NAM/GFS/ECMWF...UPPER MI LOOKS            
TO BE CAUGHT IN SQUEEZE-PLAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER CANADA             
AND THE NORTHERN U.S. BECOMES BLOCKED. THIS BLOCKING LOOKS TO BE A              
RESULT OF STRONG RIDGING BUILT UP AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW TO OUR                 
EAST. IN FACT...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TAKING THE UPPER LOW               
BACK TO THE NW DURING THIS PERIOD...BASICALLY PULLED BY THE CURRENT             
SHRTWV CROSSING SRN IA. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR UPPER MI IS A PERSISTENT            
CHANCE FOR -SN ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF UPPER MI CLOSER TO THE DEEPER            
MOISTURE AROUND THE UPPER LOW...WHILE THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI IS              
DRY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW INVERSIONS              
AND THE SURFACE RIDGE. STILL MAINTAINED THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME                 
DZ/FZDZ OVER THE EASTERN CWA TUE NIGHT SINCE IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT            
THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN UNTIL WED. ANY PCPN LOOKS TO BE                
LIGHT AT THE CURRENT TIME DUE TO LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WITH              
THE UPPER LOW. GIVEN THE BLOCKED PATTERN...NO SIGNIFICANT COOLING OR            
WARMING IS PLANNED. THEREFORE... LOWS AND HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE              
ABOUT THE SAME THROUGH THE PERIOD...IN THE 20S AND 30S RESPECTIVELY.            
BEYOND THU...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. 00Z ECMWF/GFS/GFS                     
ENSEMBLES ARE ALL IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF             
A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR FRI              
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS TROUGH IS FORMED BY A COMBINATION OF THE                 
UPPER LOW TO OUR EAST ON THU AND ANOTHER TROUGH DROPPING DOWN OUT OF            
CENTRAL CANADA. THIS MEANS THAT GRADUAL COOLING WILL OCCUR...COLD               
ENOUGH TO SET UP PURE LAKE EFFECT BY THE WEEKEND.                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
OVERALL...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS              
FCST PERIOD. WEDGE OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR SWEEPING INTO THE AREA                 
AHEAD OF MID/UPPER LOW DROPPING SE TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST MAY                 
RESULT IN CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT FOR A WHILE TODAY...BUT CONFIDENCE              
IS LOW IN DETERMINING A TIME PERIOD WHEN THAT MIGHT OCCUR.                      
OTHERWISE...UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO THE VCNTY WILL LIKELY BRING SOME            
-SHSN TO KCMX THIS AFTN AND KSAW THIS EVENING. SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT            
IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY AT KSAW AS CONVERGENT NRLY UPSLOPING FLOW              
DEVELOPS. MAY SEE IFR CONDITIONS FOR A TIME LATE EVENING INTO THE               
OVERNIGHT.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
A LOW PRES TROF EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO ACROSS THE UPPER                
GREAT LAKES TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL CONSOLIDATE                
INTO A LOW PRES CENTER OVER SRN LAKE HURON THIS EVENING. AS THIS                
OCCURS...NRLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS            
AFTN AND MORE SO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECT NRLY WINDS IN               
THE 20-30KT RANGE TONIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE E HALF              
OF THE LAKE. IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS            
COULD OCCUR...BUT SINCE THERE IS A LACK OF COLD AIR ADVECTION TO                
INCREASE MIXING...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF GALES. PROGRESSION            
OF THE MAIN WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL SLOW TO A CRAWL TUE THRU FRI. WITH             
LOW PRES TO THE E AND HIGH PRES TO THE W...N TO NW WINDS WILL BE THE            
RULE TUE THRU FRI WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAINING OVER THE E HALF            
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. OVERALL...AFTER TUE...WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN            
THE 15-25KT RANGE OVER THE E AND 10-20KT OVER THE W.                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...AJ                                                        
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...ROLFSON                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
425 AM EST MON NOV 24 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
08Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING               
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. INTO SW CANADA...RIDGING IN THE OHIO VALLEY               
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...AND A TROUGH FROM MANITOBA SOUTHWARD             
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITHIN THE TROUGH...AN UPPER LOW IS LOCATED            
AT THE FAR NORTH END OF LAKE WINNIPEG. THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD             
OF THE UPPER LOW EXTENDS FROM MO ACROSS UPPER MI AND INTO NE                    
ONTARIO. SOME -SN IS FALLING OUT OF THE CONVEYOR BELT OVER THE                  
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA...ALSO IN THE SAME PLACE WHERE BETTER                
MOISTURE IS BASED ON 00Z RAOBS FROM MPX...COMPARED TO GRB AND APX               
WHICH REFLECT THE DRIER AIRMASS OVER EASTERN UPPER MI. A DRY SLOT IS            
EVIDENT ON 11-3.9 U IMAGERY OVER NE MN...BUT FARTHER NW OVER NW MN              
INTO MANITOBA IS THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT (CCB) CLOUDS ON THE BACK                
SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. 850MB TEMPS UNDER THE CCB WERE AROUND -14C               
BASED ON THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM CYQD...QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN THE               
-1C AT MPX...-4C AT INL AND -6C AT CWPL. TO THE SW OF UPPER MI ON               
WATER VAPOR...A SHRTWV IS MOVING THROUGH SRN IA. ASSOCIATED WITH THE            
SHRTWV IS A 1015MB SFC LOW IN SE IA. A TROUGH EXTENDS NE FROM THE               
LOW ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER MI...THEN HEADS BACK TO THE NW AS A COLD               
FRONT WHERE IT CONNECTS UP TO A 1008MB LOW IN FAR NW ONTARIO.                   
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THE NEXT TWO DAYS...              
ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE.                                      
TODAY...UPPER LOW AT THE NORTH END OF LAKE WINNIPEG IS PROGGED TO               
SLIDE A LITTLE BIT FARTHER WEST COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS 00Z                      
RUNS...MOVING INTO WRN WI AT 00Z TUE. THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR SEEN             
UPSTREAM AT CYQD WILL STAY UNDER OR TO THE WEST OF THE UPPER LOW.               
HOWEVER...SOME COOLING IS STILL EXPECTED TO COME INTO UPPER MICHIGAN            
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW. NAM/GFS SHOW 850MB TEMPS FALLING            
TO -8 TO -10C OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...WHICH WOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH               
FOR LAKE ENHANCED OR PERHAPS EVEN PURE LAKE EFFECT. WITH NW WINDS...            
IT WOULD SEEM LIKELY FOR SNOW IN WRN UPPER MI...ESPECIALLY IN                   
UPSLOPE AREAS. HAVE RAISED POPS TO DEFINITE IN THE UPSLOPE AREA FROM            
IWD TO ROCKLAND. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SNOW TO WATER RATIOS SOMEWHERE               
AROUND 10 TO 1...DUE TO MAJORITY OF VERTICAL MOTION BELOW THE                   
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE...WHICH WITH A BLEND OF NAM/LOCAL WRF-ARW            
RUN/GFS FOR QPF RESULTS IN 1 TO 2 INCHES. THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR                
CROSSING CENTRAL AND LAKE SUPERIOR IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN...                
WITH THE GFS SHOWING -8 TO PERHAPS -10C AT 00Z TUE...COMPARED TO THE            
NAM AND LOCAL WRF-ARW WHICH HAVE -4 TO -6C. EITHER SCENARIO SEEMS AT            
LEAST POSSIBLE FOR LAKE ENHANCED PCPN...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT THERE             
WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND IN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF            
THE UPPER LOW. THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE WARMER SCENARIO WOULD RESULT             
IN POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TO MIX IN...PARTICULARLY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR               
AND OVER LAND NEAR THE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. GIVEN 00Z SOUNDING FROM              
CWPL UPSTREAM WAS -6C...WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE NAM/LOCAL WRF-ARW. THE            
WARMER SCENARIO ALSO MEANS THAT ANY SNOW THAT FALLS INLAND WILL ALSO            
BE WETTER WITH SNOW TO WATER RATIOS LESS THAN 10 TO 1. COULD BE AN              
INCH...PERHAPS TWO OF THIS WET SNOW IN THE EASTERN CWA. THE CENTRAL             
U.P. LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY TODAY...WITH SOME SUN AS THE DRY-SLOT               
WORKS IN. A FEW -SHSN COULD WORK IN OVER MQT COUNTY OFF OF WRN                  
SUPERIOR IN THE AFTN...BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT FOR CENTRAL UPPER MI.               
ALTHOUGH COLD AIR IS FLOWING IN...EXPECT HIGHS AGAIN TODAY IN THE               
30S...WARMEST SOUTH CENTRAL WITH DOWNSLOPING NW WINDS AND NEAR LAKE             
SUPERIOR WITH HEAT FLUX OFF THE WARMER WATER.                                   
TONIGHT...UPPER LOW MOVES SE INTO OHIO BY 12Z TUE...COMING CLOSE TO             
PHASING WITH THE SHRTWV CURRENTLY HEADING EAST OUT OF SRN IA. AS A              
RESULT...THE SFC LOWS THAT ARE CURRENTLY IN NW ONTARIO AND SE IA END            
UP MERGING TOGETHER INTO A DEEPER 1003 MB LOW NEAR LONDON ONTARIO AT            
12Z TUE. THE DEEPENING LOW HELPS TO STRENGTHEN NORTH TO NE WINDS                
OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. NORMALLY THIS WOULD SPELL COLDER AIR                
MOVING IN. HOWEVER...THE AIR COMING IN IS EITHER JUST AS COOL OR                
PERHAPS EVEN SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE AIR THAT IS IN OVER THE CWA AT            
00Z PER 850MB TEMP PROGS. THE REASON IS THAT THE DEEPENING LOW HELPS            
TO PULL WARMER AIR IN OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO ITS CIRCULATION. SO WITH            
LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN 850MB TEMPS...LAKE ENHANCEMENT SHOULD BE THE             
RULE...POSSIBLY PURE LAKE EFFECT IN THE WRN U.P.. PROBLEM IN THE WRN            
U.P. COMPARED TO TODAY IS THAT WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER                  
LOW...INVERSIONS FALL WITH THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES. THE QUESTION             
IS IF THE -10C ISOTHERM DRIES OUT...WHICH WOULD CHANGE THE PCPN FROM            
SNOW TO FZDZ GIVEN THAT AN UPSLOPING WIND CONTINUES. RIGHT NOW ONLY             
OUR LOCAL WRF-ARW RUN SHOWS THIS OCCURRING...WHILE THE NAM/GFS SHOW             
THE -10C ISOTHERM REMAINING MOIST. THEREFORE HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP               
THE P-TYPE AS SNOW. IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST...INVERSIONS WILL                   
GRADUALLY LOWER AS WELL...BUT NOT AS QUICK. SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER             
THAT THE P-TYPE WILL STAY AS SNOW INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. AMOUNTS            
OF SNOW SHOULD NOT BE THAT IMPRESSIVE...MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO GIVEN              
LOW SNOW TO WATER RATIOS. REGARDING AREAS NEAR THE LAKE...THE WARMER            
NAM/LOCAL WRF-ARW RUNS SUGGEST HOLDING ON TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX THROUGH            
AT LEAST 09Z. IF THE PCPN IS GENERALLY LIGHT...THEN MORE OF THE PCPN            
SHOULD FALL AS RAIN. GIVEN THE WARMER 850MB TEMPS AND PLENTY OF                 
CLOUDS...ALONG WITH A FLOW OF AIR OFF THE WARM LAKE SUPERIOR                    
WATER...TEMPS SHOULD NOT DROP TOO MUCH. COLDEST READINGS EXPECTED IN            
THE INTERIOR WEST...CLOSEST TO THE COLDEST 850MB AIR...BUT EVEN                 
THESE SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE MID 20S.                                            
TUESDAY...UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO SHIFT INTO NORTH CENTRAL PA BY 00Z            
WED...WITH THE SFC LOW MOVING TO THE LAKE ONTARIO AREA. THIS ALLOWS             
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO BUILD INTO WESTERN UPPER MI BY 00Z...IN                
ADDITION TO CONTINUED MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE DAY. THE               
RIDGE SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR IN...LIKELY TO THE WESTERN CWA...ENOUGH            
TO END PCPN BY EARLY AFTN. HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA                
WILL STAY IN LOW CLOUDS TRAPPED UNDER THE LOWERING INVERSION...                 
ENHANCED BY LAKE SUPERIOR GIVEN COOL AIR BELOW THE INVERSION. PCPN              
TYPE IS VERY TRICKY...AS ALL MODELS SHOW THE -10C LAYER DRYING OUT              
THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN A NORTH WIND OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...SET            
UP IS FAVORABLE FOR UPSLOPE. SO WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE                  
SUPERIOR AND UPSLOPE FLOW PRODUCING VERTICAL MOTION...SOME PCPN                 
SHOULD OCCUR OUT OF THE CLOUDS. RIGHT NOW HAVE GONE WITH EITHER SNOW            
SHOWERS OR DZ/FZDZ (FZDZ OVER INLAND AREAS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN).             
POPS ARE HIGHEST IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL IN THE               
MORNING...THEN DECREASE IN THE AFTN AS THE DRIER AIR TRIES TO WORK              
IN. GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND 850MB TEMPS THAT ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN             
TODAY...HIGHS WILL ALSO END UP SLIGHTLY COOLER. STILL...MOST                    
LOCATIONS SHOULD BE IN THE 30S...WARMEST IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF              
THE SOUTH CENTRAL.                                                              
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...PER THE UKMET/NAM/GFS/ECMWF...UPPER MI LOOKS            
TO BE CAUGHT IN SQUEEZE-PLAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER CANADA             
AND THE NORTHERN U.S. BECOMES BLOCKED. THIS BLOCKING LOOKS TO BE A              
RESULT OF STRONG RIDGING BUILT UP AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW TO OUR                 
EAST. IN FACT...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TAKING THE UPPER LOW               
BACK TO THE NW DURING THIS PERIOD...BASICALLY PULLED BY THE CURRENT             
SHRTWV CROSSING SRN IA. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR UPPER MI IS A PERSISTENT            
CHANCE FOR -SN ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF UPPER MI CLOSER TO THE DEEPER            
MOISTURE AROUND THE UPPER LOW...WHILE THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI IS              
DRY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW INVERSIONS              
AND THE SURFACE RIDGE. STILL MAINTAINED THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME                 
DZ/FZDZ OVER THE EASTERN CWA TUE NIGHT SINCE IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT            
THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN UNTIL WED. ANY PCPN LOOKS TO BE                
LIGHT AT THE CURRENT TIME DUE TO LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WITH              
THE UPPER LOW. GIVEN THE BLOCKED PATTERN...NO SIGNIFICANT COOLING OR            
WARMING IS PLANNED. THEREFORE... LOWS AND HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE              
ABOUT THE SAME THROUGH THE PERIOD...IN THE 20S AND 30S RESPECTIVELY.            
BEYOND THU...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. 00Z ECMWF/GFS/GFS                     
ENSEMBLES ARE ALL IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF             
A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR FRI              
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS TROUGH IS FORMED BY A COMBINATION OF THE                 
UPPER LOW TO OUR EAST ON THU AND ANOTHER TROUGH DROPPING DOWN OUT OF            
CENTRAL CANADA. THIS MEANS THAT GRADUAL COOLING WILL OCCUR...COLD               
ENOUGH TO SET UP PURE LAKE EFFECT BY THE WEEKEND.                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN               
COULD BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBY. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTENING...MVFR             
CIGS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR OCNL IFR CIGS.                    
THEN...AS NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW SETS UP AND COLD AIR MOVES IN             
ALOFT...-SHSN WILL BECOME POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT KCMX IN THE                      
AFTERNOON. BY MONDAY EVENING...ADDITIONAL LAKE ENHANCED SNOW MAY BE             
POSSIBLE AT KSAW AS CONVERGENT NNE FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE                     
DEPARTING MID LEVEL AND SFC LOWS.                                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
A LOW PRES TROF EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO ACROSS THE UPPER                
GREAT LAKES TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL CONSOLIDATE                
INTO A LOW PRES CENTER OVER SRN LAKE HURON THIS EVENING. AS THIS                
OCCURS...NRLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS            
AFTN AND MORE SO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECT NRLY WINDS IN               
THE 20-30KT RANGE TONIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE E HALF              
OF THE LAKE. IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS            
COULD OCCUR...BUT SINCE THERE IS A LACK OF COLD AIR ADVECTION TO                
INCREASE MIXING...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF GALES. PROGRESSION            
OF THE MAIN WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL SLOW TO A CRAWL TUE THRU FRI. WITH             
LOW PRES TO THE E AND HIGH PRES TO THE W...N TO NW WINDS WILL BE THE            
RULE TUE THRU FRI WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAINING OVER THE E HALF            
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. OVERALL...AFTER TUE...WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN            
THE 15-25KT RANGE OVER THE E AND 10-20KT OVER THE W.                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...AJ                                                        
AVIATION...JLB                                                                  
MARINE...ROLFSON                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
556 AM CST MON NOV 24 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.                                          
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
/ISSUED 120 AM CST MON NOV 24 2008/                                             
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTH OVER             
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN BACK OVER THE                
FORECAST AREA...WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH CAA. EXPECT              
SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS              
OF THE CWA. CLOUDS AND SNOW FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER                
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY TONIGHT.  THE LATEST WATER VAPOR                   
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN MN. PREVIOUS             
MODELS AND FORECAST THINKING ON TRACK WITH THIS FEATURE.                        
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE REMAINDER OF               
THE PERIOD THROUGH THURSDAY.  MODELS ARE HINTING AT LONGWAVE TROUGH             
DEVELOPING AND CARVING OUT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY. THE                
EUROPEAN MODEL APPEARS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OF THE LATEST                  
MODELS. THE GFS IS ALSO SHOWING SIGNS OF DEVELOPING A WAVE OVER                 
THE AREA. THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING...AND MAY HAVE TO INTRODUCE SOME              
LIGHT PRECIP THANKSGIVING NIGHT AND FRIDAY.                                     
TEMPS TODAY...SHOULD WARM AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SFC WINDS SHOULD                 
INCREASE TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S...BEFORE THE COLD           
AIR SETTLES IN THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WERE NOT THAT COLD                  
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...SO TEMPS EXPECTED TO MODERATE BACK INTO                
THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S BY THANKSGIVING DAY.                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM SUNDAY EVE PRECIP...PLUS LIGHT WINDS AHEAD               
OF TROUGH...HAVE ENABLED LARGE BATCH OF IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP IN WISC.            
WESTERN EDGE PROBABLY JUST A FEW MILES WEST OF KEAU. LATEST RUC                 
INDICATES THIS WILL MOVE OUT DURING THE MID MORNING...AND LOOP OF               
11-3.9 SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS AN EVER SO SLIGHT EASTWARD                    
PROGRESSION NORTH OF KEAU. THUS FORECAST DEPICTS SCATTERING OUT AT              
KEAU AROUND 15Z.                                                                
MEANWHILE...CIGS AROUND 4K TO 5K FEET IN NRN MN HAVE MOVED FROM                 
CANADA... PINWHEELING AROUND LOW IN NWRN ONTARIO. FIRST WAVE OF                 
CLOUDS HAS SHOWN EROSION ON ITS WESTERN EDGE BETWEEN KFFM AND                   
KGFK... BUT A MORE EXPANSIVE AREA WAS ENTERING NERN ND. GFS AT 06Z              
CONTINUES TO DO AN EXCELLENT JOB OF REPRESENTATING THIS. BUFKIT                 
SHOWS STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MORE EXPANSIVE MOISTURE THAT WILL MOVE              
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MN INTO WISC DURING THE AFTERNOON. SNOW                     
SHOWERS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KRWF... WITH GREATEST                      
POSSIBILITY OF VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT KMSP...KRNH AND KEAU. MAYBE                 
KSTC TOO. SOUNDING ALSO SUGGESTS GUSTY NW WIND AS WELL BEFORE SFC               
RIDGE MOVES IN LATER THIS EVENING.                                              
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JVM/TDK                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
1221 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT...WITH WET SNOW AND RAIN...WILL                   
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF                  
COLD AIR MID WEEK WILL BRING BACK LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.                     
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...                                         
UPDATED AT 1135 PM...                                                           
BASED ON SNOW ACCUMS ACRS NRN ONEIDA...UPGRADED ADVISORY TO                     
WARNING FOR 6-10 INCHES. ACRS THE TWIN TIERS...MOST OF THE SNOW IS              
NOW CONFINED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS..WITH RAIN IN THE VLYS WHERE                  
THERE HAS BEEN LTL SNOW ACCUM. TONED DOWN THE SNOW AMTS ACRS THE TWIN           
TIERS...WITH 2-4 INCHES AT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...AND <1 INCH IN THE              
VLYS. WE MAY BE ABLE TO DROP THE ADVISORIES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA                
WITH THE EARLY MRNG UPDATE. PREV BLO...                                         
AS OF 9 PM EST...                                                               
PCPN CONTINUING ACRS CWA THIS EVNG IN DIFFLUENT REGION OF STORM                 
WRAPPING UP OVR THE GREAT LKS. MAIN PCPN AREA LIFTING INTO ERN                  
SXNS OF CWA AT THIS TIME WITH ANOTHER BATCH BHND IT ACRS CNTRL PA.              
THUS FAR...1-3 INCHES OF SNOW HAS OCCURRED ACRS MOST OF THE                     
REGION. HIGHEST ELEVATIONS HV SEEN TOTALS CLOSER TO 3 INCHES                    
TONIGHT. DEEPEST VALLEYS REPORTING EITHER RAIN OR RA/SN MIX WITH                
JUST WET CONDS AND NO ACC/S WITH A COUPLE INCHES IN MID-                        
ELEVATIONS. AS SNOW WINDS DOWN FOR SEVERAL HRS TONIGHT...EXPECT                 
-DZ OR FLURRIES FOR A TIME. HWVR...NEXT BATCH MVS IN BY MIDNIGHT                
AND CUD BRING SOME HEAVIER SNOW AND MORE ACCUMS BY MRNG.                        
SEVERAL ISSUES TO DEAL WITH TONIGHT REGARDING UPDATE. TEMPS                     
INITIALLY CRASHED WITH ONSET OF PCPN THIS AFTN WITH MANY LOCATIONS              
FALLING FM L40S TO NR FREEZING WITHIN AN HR OR TWO. AT THE SAME                 
TIME...DWPTS CLIMBED TO NR FRZG FROM THE TEENS. THIS HIT ARND                   
EVENING RUSH HR WITH ROAD SFC TEMPS DROPPING TO BLO FRZG. SNOW-                 
COVERED RDS WERE PREVALENT ACRS GOOD PART OF TWIN TIERS.                        
AS STORM SYSTEM HAS WOUND UP...LLJ HAS INTENSIFIED WITH KBGM VWP                
INDICATING 50KTS AT 4KFT AS OF THIS TIME. AS THIS JET PULLS IN                  
WARMER AIR LATE TONIGHT...SOME LOCATIONS WILL SEE A MIX OR CHG OVR              
TO RAIN. DEEPEST VALLEYS MAY SEE ALL RAIN FOR A TIME TONIGHT AS                 
WARM AIR SURGES IN FM THE SOUTH. THIS WL LIKELY IMPACT ERN ZONES                
THE MOST WHERE WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT. LATEST RUC                    
APPEARS TO HV CAUGHT UP WITH CURRENT CONDS WHEN COMPARED TO LATEST              
AIRCRAFT SNDGS. 00Z RUC SOLN INDICATES 925MB TEMPS WARM ABV 0C                  
ACRS WYOMING/LACKAWANNA VALLEYS AND INTO WRN CATSKILLS AFT                      
MIDNIGHT AND THRU DAYBREAK. BOTH NAM/RUC KEEP H8 TEMPS BLO FRZG                 
ACRS ERN ZONES TONIGHT. THIS WUD INDICATE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN                    
VALLEYS WITH POSSIBLY ALL RAIN IN THE DEEPEST VALLEYS ACRS THE                  
EAST. AT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ABV 2KFT EXPECT ALL SNOW TONIGHT AND                
SNOW AMNTS OF 6-10 INCHES IN THESE AREAS. BUFKIT PROFILES INDICATE              
WARMING ALOFT THRU APPROX 12Z BFR COLUMN COOLS AGAIN AS FNT GOES                
THRU.                                                                           
THIS MAKES SNOWFALL FCST EXTREMELY DIFFICULT FOR TONIGHT. HV                    
STAYED THE COURSE WITH CURRENT ADVISORIES/WARNINGS IN PLACE THRU                
NOON TUESDAY. WITH 2-3 INCHES HAVING ALREADY FALLEN ACRS GOOD PART              
OF THE FA...FEEL ANOTHER 2-3 DEFINITELY DO-ABLE ACRS TWIN TIERS                 
AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEPA. AS MORE PCPN MVS UP FROM PA...EXPECT                
SNOW TO BCM MORE PREDOMINANT AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN HEAVIER PCPN                 
RATES.                                                                          
FURTHER EAST WILL LEAVE WARNING AS IS. WILL TRY TO HIT THE                      
TERRAIN DIFFERENCES HARDER AS IT APPEARS THIS AREA WILL BE MOST                 
AFFECTED BY ELEVATION SNOWS.                                                    
RMNDR OF FCST WILL BE UNCHANGED. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED                
SHORTLY.                                                                        
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
SNOW BARRELING INTO THE CWA. NO SIGN OF RAIN YET. TEMPS FALLING                 
WHILE DEWPOINTS THAT WERE IN THE TEENS ARE RISING TO AROUND 30.                 
WARMER AIR WILL SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AND ALOFT TONIGHT.                
RAIN SHOULD MIX WITH THE SNOW THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY AT THE                  
LOWEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CWA WHICH IS THE FINGER LAKES. ALSO THE                
BEST QPF WILL BE IN NE PA AND THE EAST SO HAVE LEFT THE FINGER                  
LAKES OUT OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. DELAWARE AND OTSEGO WITH              
MUCH OF THE AREA OVER 1K FT ELEV WILL HAVE THE MOST QPF AND SNOW.               
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS COULD HAVE A FOOT OF SNOW. FOR THESE 2                   
ZONES WENT WITH A WINT WX WARNING. REST OF CWA IN AN ADVISORY.                  
WITH THE WARMER AIR AT THE SFC THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE AT              
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AGAIN. IN THE VALLEYS IT WILL BE WET SNOW                
OR A MIX. LOW LEVELS WILL BE JUST ABOVE FREEZING SO LITTLE CHANCE               
OF FREEZING RAIN. SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR WILL COME IN AT 925MB RIGHT               
WITH THE FRONT SO A BETTER CHC OF RAIN OR MIXED LATE TONIGHT AND                
TUESDAY MORNING.                                                                
THE FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY AM AS THE UL LOW                
CUTS OFF AND DEEPENS. WITH THE LL TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING              
CONFIDENCE ON SNOW AMOUNTS IS MODERATE. A FEW DEGREES ONE WAY OR                
THE OTHER COULD MAKE A DIFFERENCE OF SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW AT THE              
GROUND.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...                       
PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END AS THE COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH AND THE               
SFC LOW STALLS OVER WRN NY WHILE THE UL LOW CLOSES OFF. THE BEST                
CHCS DURING THE AFTN WILL BE IN THE FAR NW CWA WHERE BETTER                     
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE IN THE WRAPAROUND. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO                    
WEDNESDAY.                                                                      
THE MODEL TRENDS FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE STACKED LOW IS KEEP IT                
HERE LONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO PA              
TUESDAY THEN LIFT SLOWLY NORTH INTO SE ONTARIO LATE WED.                        
THE LL FLOW STARTS OUT OF THE WEST THEN FINALLY SHIFTS TO THE NW                
WED NGT OR THU. THROUGH THE WHOLE SHORT TERM 850 TEMPS ONLY                     
MARGINAL SO NO DECENT STRICTLY LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED.                         
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                           
UL TROF WILL REMAIN FIXED FROM THE UPPER PORTIONS OF QUEBEC AND                 
ONTARIO DOWN THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. A                
VIGOROUS WAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE FLOW ON FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY                   
WEAKER SHOTS OF ENERGY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO                    
FORECAST BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
AN EARLIER THAN EXPECTED TRANSISTION FROM SNOW TO RAIN HAS ALLOWED              
VISIBILITIES TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF OUR                
TERMINALS. THE HIGHER ELEVATION BGM TERMINAL REMAINS IN IFR                     
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO MODERATE SNOW.                                              
CEILINGS WILL RANGE FROM 500 TO 1500 FEET THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.          
AS TEMPERATURES DROP OFF AGAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WE COULD SEE              
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES.                        
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR CONTINUES WITH SNOW SHOWERS.             
THURSDAY...BACK TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND NW FLOW. MVFR NORTHERN NY               
TERMINALS AND VFR ELSEWHERE.                                                    
FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH POSSIBLY SOME LINGERING LES UPSTATE NY.                
SATURDAY...MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.                                                
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR PAZ038>040-               
     043-044-047-048-072.                                                       
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ022>025-               
     036-037-044-045-055-056-062.                                               
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ009-046-057.              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...TAC                                                                  
NEAR TERM...PVN                                                                 
SHORT TERM...TAC                                                                
LONG TERM...DJP                                                                 
AVIATION...DJP/JML                                                              
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
1039 PM EST MON NOV 24 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES                  
REGION WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND OFFSHORE                     
TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE              
GULF COAST STATES LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE            
FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA INTO              
THE WEEKEND.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                                 
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS AND TEMPS OVERNIGHT PER CURRENT TRENDS.          
SEEING TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF PRECIP ATTM...ONE OFFSHORE THE                     
CENTRAL AND SRN OBX ASSOCIATED WITH PREFRONTAL LOW LVL                          
CONVERGENCE. THE OTHER IS THE DENSER BAND OF PRECIP THAT HAS                    
REMAINED MOSTLY W OF THE AREA THUS FAR...WHICH IS OCCURING JUST                 
AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL IN WRN PART OF THE STATE               
AS OF 3Z. WENT AHEAD AND RAISED FAR NW PART AND CENTRAL/SRN                     
COASTAL WATERS TO CATEGORICAL POPS PER TRENDS OF THESE PRECIP                   
REGIONS WHICH IS ALSO IN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL                 
GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE HAVE LIKELY ELSEWHERE...AND GENERAL THINKING                
IS THAT MOST EVERYWHERE SHOULD MEASURE WITH AROUND 1/10-1/4 INCH                
EXPECTED ON AVERAGE...PSBLY SLIGHTLY MORE NW/N PART WHERE DEEPEST               
MOISTURE LIES. MAIN PCPN EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU THE AREA BTWN 5-10Z              
THEN BEGIN MOVING OFFSHORE TOWARDS TUE MORNING.                                 
TEMPS HAVE BEEN CHALLENGING TONITE AS A CLOUD MINIMUM AFFECTED                  
MUCH OF THE SRN CWA EARLIER THIS EVENING ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL                 
QUICKLY TO FORECASTED MINS. THEY HAVE SINCE STABILIZED OR EVEN                  
ROSE AS CLOUDINESS IS INCREASING. OVERALL EXPECTING U40S-L50S MOST              
LOCATIONS REST OF NITE.                                                         
DRY AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT TUE MORNING                
AS THE SHOWERS PUSH OFF THE COAST. A STRONG VORT MAX WILL PUSH                  
THROUGH IN THE AFT...BUT THE AIRMASS WILL BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT                 
CLOUDS LET ALONE PRECIP. THE MIXING WILL SUPPORT BREEZY WNW WINDS               
AROUND 15 MPH.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                          
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR TUE NT...AND WITH LOWERING              
TD WILL SEE TEMPS DROP FAST AFT MIDNIGHT. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN UP              
FOR THE BULK OF THE NIGHT...BUT IF WINDS DROP OFF TOWARDS DAYBREAK              
COULD SEE TEMPS BOTTOM OUT INTO THE 20S. EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN                 
ABV FREEZING FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT...WITH A FAST DROP AROUND            
SUNRISE. THE THICKNESSES WILL START TO INCREASE WED/WED NT AS THE               
TROF MOVES OFF TO THE NE...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS INCREASING. WILL SEE              
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT AS CALM WINDS AND LOW TD SUPPORT FREEZING TEMPS              
AGAIN.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                         
LOOK FOR A COMFORTABLE AND SUNNY DAY ON THANKSGIVING WITH TEMPS IN              
THE UPPER 50S AND SUNNY SKIES. HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE                    
FRI...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFFSHORE. WENT PRETTY CLOSE                
TO HPC...WHO FAVORED BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF. GFS IS STILL MUCH QUICKER              
WITH SYSTEM SAT. HPC PROGS HAVE SFC LOW OVER THE TN VALLEY SATURDAY             
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE COAST SUNDAY...WITH ASSOCIATED COLD                
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NC OVERNIGHT SATURDAY. ONLY REAL                  
CHANGE TO EXTENDED WAS TO BRING POPS IN A LITTLE EARLIER FRIDAY                 
EVENING. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD GRADUALLY WARMING AHEAD OF THE                
SYSTEM WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES...UPPER 50S/LOW 60S BY                
SATURDAY.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
VFR WILL HOLD WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING...THEN STILL                  
EXPECT PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT WITH PCPN SHIELD ALONG               
AND AHEAD OF FRONT. CLEARING EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING TUE.                      
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TUE NIGHT-FRI WITH HIGH PRES                 
BUILDING IN. MVFR CONDITIONS PSBL AGAIN WITH NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM ON             
SAT.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN HANDLING WINDS VERY WELL AND IN FACT HAVE                  
BEEN WELL OVERDONE OUTSIDE OF THE RUC. THINK THE NWP GUIDANCE IS                
NOT CAPTURING A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST                 
ATTM WHICH IS ALLOWING A MUCH WEAKER GRADIENT THAN ANTICIPATED.                 
HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT OVER THE WRN PART OF THE STATE NEARS THAT                
WILL CHANGE AND STILL THINK S/SW WINDS WILL RAMP UP. GALES LOOK                 
MARGINAL BUT DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE DOWNGRADING JUST BEFORE THE               
EVENT IS EXPECTED TO PEAK (6-15Z) SO KEPT HEADLINES IN TACT FOR                 
GUSTS. DID BACK OFF WINDS/SEAS INITIALLY THO BASED ON CURRENT OBS.              
FRONT SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE TUE MORNING WITH SW BECOMING W WINDS                 
MOSTLY IN THE 15-25KT RANGE EXCEPT OUTER PORTION OF CENTRAL/SRN WATERS A        
LITTLE HIGHER.                                                                  
CAA WILL LIKELY KEEP SCA CONDITIONS OVER OUTER WATERS INTO TUE                  
NIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE WED-THU WITH HGIH PRES BUILDING IN. LOW               
CONFIDENCE FCST FOR FRI-SAT DUE TO MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES. WENT               
WITH HPC FCST OF SLOWER FRONTAL MOVEMENT ON SAT...BUT GFS AND                   
ECWMF ARE TRENDING TO FASTER SYSTEM ON FRI NIGHT.                               
WW3 LOOKS REASONABLE FOR SEAS THROUGH THU...THEN TOO HIGH FOR                   
FRI-SAT AS GFS IS INDICATING FASTER MOVEMENT OF FRONTAL SYSTEM.                 
HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO MONITOR UPCOMING LONG PERIOD ELY SWELL                   
EXPECTED THANKSGIVING INTO THE WEEKEND GIVEN SYSTEM DVLPG IN                    
CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N50W.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ130-135-150.        
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-            
     158.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...MW/SJ                                                                
NEAR TERM...MW/SJ                                                               
SHORT TERM...SJ                                                                 
LONG TERM...CQD                                                                 
AVIATION...JBM                                                                  
MARINE...JBM/MW                                                                 
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                       
745 PM EST MON NOV 24 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT                
REACHES UPDATE NEW YORK ON TUESDAY...WHILE A SECONDARY LOW                      
DEVELOPS AND MOVES OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MAINLY SNOW WILL              
FALL OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS WITH MOSTLY RAIN IN THE SOUTH THROUGH               
TONIGHT...WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION IN BETWEEN CHANGING BACK TO                  
SNOW SHOWERS ON TUESDAY MORNING AS THE COLDER AIR WRAPS BACK                    
AROUND TO THE SOUTH. AFTERWARDS...COLD...NORTHWESTERLY OVER-LAKE FLOW           
WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE REGION THIS              
WEEK WITH AREAS OF HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT AND OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED              
SNOWS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES.                                  
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...                                        
PRECIP SHIELD HAS REACHED THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHT SNOW                 
AND SOME SLEET FALLING HERE AT NWS CTP THIS HOUR. TRANSITION ZONE               
NOT FAR AWAY WITH MIXED PRECIP AT KFIG AND KDUJ...AND COLD RAIN AT              
KJST AND KAOO WITH 33F AIRTEMP AND 28F DEWPOINTS. CURRENT                       
ADVISORIES SEEM WELL PLACED FOR THIS EVENING WITH LITTLE IN THE                 
WAY OF CHANGES.                                                                 
09Z SREF PTYPE PROBS CONT TO FAVOR SNOW MIXED WITH SLEET FROM                   
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD...WITH PRIMARILY SNOW FROM I80                      
NORTHWARD. SREF INDICATES CATEGORICAL PROBS OF .5" OR GREATER IN                
12 HOURS FROM 18Z MON TO 06Z TUE. A FEW PLUMES SUGGEST THE                      
POTENTIAL FOR MORE THAN 4 INCHES FROM WILLIAMSPORT NORTHWARD TONIGHT.           
MODEL FORECASTING SOUNDINGS ARE PREDOMINATELY "SNOW" SOUNDINGS                  
AFTER PRECIP ARRIVES...WITH DYNAMIC COOLING TO THE WET BULB                     
TEMPERATURES CREATING ISOTHERMAL SOUNDINGS BELOW FREEZING TO NEAR               
THE SURFACE FROM CENTRAL MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD. UNLIKE LAST YEAR                  
WHICH WAS THE "WINTER OF THE WARM LAYER ALOFT" FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL              
PA... DIFFICULT TO FIND A WARM LAYER ALOFT WITH THIS SYSTEM.                    
A MESSY EVENING COMMUTE IS AHEAD FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND ALL OF                 
NORTHERN PA AS THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IS ILL-TIMED. FURTHER NORTH...        
PRIMARILY SNOW WILL CONTINUE WITH MANY AREAS LIKELY RECEIVING 3 OR              
4 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.                                          
TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS                    
COLDER AIR WRAPS BACK AROUND INTO CENTRAL PA AS COASTAL LOW                     
DEVELOPS. EXPECT WESTERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS TO BE CHANGED OVER                
BEFORE 10Z WITH EASTERN SECTIONS LAGGING A BIT BEYOND THAT TIMEFRAME.           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...                        
TRANSITION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN REGION                     
TONIGHT...WITH I-80 FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE RAIN/SNOW LINE AS                       
SUGGESTED BY LATEST GUIDANCE AND RUC13 FORECASTS OF WET BULB ZERO.              
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY SHOULD BE PRIMARILY RAIN. THE HIGHER ELEVS                
OF SULLIVAN/SCHUYLKILL CO POSE THE GREATEST FCST CHALLENGE FOR INTO             
TONIGHT...GIVEN THE ELEVATION PTYPE DEPENDENCE. HAVE HELD OFF AN                
ANY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT WITH ACCUMS OF 1-3 INCHES MENTIONED.                
WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT CONSULT THE LATEST GUID AND MAKE THE FINAL               
DECISION ON ANY FLAGS FOR TNT.                                                  
THE CLD/OCCLD FNT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION LATE                             
TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A GUSTY WIND SHIFT TO THE W/SW. THE HIGH               
RESOLUTION NAM/WRF DEPICTS A MORE ROBUST DRY SLOT IMMEDIATELY                   
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME DRYING ALOFT. THIS                   
SHOULD RESULT IN MORE SHOWERY/LIGHTER PCPN AFT 06Z ESP ACROSS THE               
WEST. AS THE UPPER LVL TROF TRANSITIONS FROM A NEUTRAL TO A SLIGHTLY            
NEG TILT...ERN PA MAY PICK UP SOME ADDNL MOD TO HEAVY QPF AS MDLS               
HINT AT A SECONDARY WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE TRAILING CLD FNT.                 
THIS IS OFTEN THE CASE AS THE AMPLIFIED NATURE OF THE LW TROF                   
LEADS TO A SLOWER EWD FNTL PROGRESSION.                                         
THE ANOMALOUS H5 LOW IS FCST TO ESSENTIALLY MOVE OVERHEAD ON                    
TUE...ACCOMPANIED BY VERY COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND STEEP MID LVL LAPSE              
RATES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY                 
HEAVY SQUALLS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE ENTIRE STORM SYS                     
BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED AS IT RETROGRADES NWWD FROM THE LWR                  
LAKES INTO SRN ONTARIO BY WED. THIS SET UP SHOULD FAVOR MORE LAKE               
EFFECT/ENHANCED AND OROGRAPHIC SNOWS ACROSS THE WESTERN                         
ALLEGHENIES...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE BY WED               
NGT.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                          
CHALLENGES WITH THE EXTENDED FORECAST RESIDE WITH LES SNOW MACHINE              
AND FAVORED ORAGRAPHIC LIFT SNOW REGIONS SEEING SNOW LATE TUE EVE               
THRU EARLY THUR.                                                                
LCL WRF-ARW/NMM PAINT MID-LVL VORT ACROSS ALLEGHENIES TUE                       
AFTN...LIFTING NORTHEAST TUE EVE. LCL MODELS SUGGEST AN AREA OF                 
DEFORMATION SNOW MAY PERSIST ACROSS SUSQ-VALLEY TUE AFTN. ATTM                  
THINKING ACCUMS SHUD REMAIN SUB-ADVISORY CRITERIA...HOWEVER THIS                
REMAINS A CONCERN. NEGATIVELY TILTED 500MB VORT...SENDS A WEAK VORT             
MAX ARND TROUGH AXIS TUE...ALLOWING COASTAL LOW TO DEV OFFSHORE OF              
LONG ISLAND/CAPE COD VICINITY. THIS SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR QUICKLY                
PULLING LLVL MOISTURE EAST OF THE SUSQ-VALLEY BY 21Z TUE. DRY WEDGE             
QUICKLY PUSHES INTO CENTRAL PA AFT 18Z AS FLOW SLOWLY BECOMES                   
WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY. DENDRITIC GROWTH GRADUALLY LOWERS ACROSS                
ALLEGHENIES AS COLD AIR STEADILY POURS INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF            
PA TUE EVE. 1000-850MB LAYERED RH SATURATES ARND 00Z WED...WITH A               
NARROW WEDGE OF OMEGA IN THE CROSS-HAIRS OF SEVERAL PROFILES. THIS SHUD         
KICK THE SNOW MACHINE INTO HIGH GEAR THRU EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY.               
MID-LVL VORT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST THUR INTO QUEBEC...ALLOWING FLOW            
TO BACK TO WESTERLY IN THE LLVL/S. THIS FEATURE WOULD PUSH ANY                  
LINGERING LES NORTH OF PA INTO NEW YORK TOWARDS END OF THE WEEK.                
OPERATIONAL MODELS KEEP 850MB TEMPS WELL BELOW ZERO...COUPLED WITH A            
534DM THICKNESS SUPPORT PRECIP AS SN. OPERATIONAL GFS PRODUCES A                
BROAD SFC RIDGE FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC FRI...HOWEVER FEEL IT WILL                 
STRUGGLE TO MIX OUT LLVL MOISTURE. CLOUDS MAY LINGER THRU WEEKEND.              
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN            
CONUS...FAVORING A PERSISTENT TROUGHING PATTERN FOR THE EASTERN US.             
SEVERAL MEMBERS TRY TO DEVELOP A VERY WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE            
SAT. THEN BRING IT NORTH ARND TROUGH AXIS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.             
TIMING AND PLACEMENT HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE.                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
WIDESPREAD SNOW...RAIN...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING...              
WITH CONDITIONS MAINLY IN THE MVFR AND IFR RANGE. CONDITIONS                    
WILL IMPROVE SOME LATER...AS TEMPS COME BACK UP...AND STEADY                    
PCPN TAPERS OFF. TEMPS DID WARM TODAY...BUT THICK CI HELD                       
AMT OF HEATING DOWN...SO GROUND TEMPS ARE STILL COLD...AND                      
MINOR AMTS OF SNOW STARTING TO CAUSE PROBLEMS. ALSO THE                         
VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE MOST LIKELY HAD A PART TO PLAY IN                         
PCPN TYPE TODAY.                                                                
ANYWAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS PA VERY EARLY                       
TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS AND OCNL MVFR VSBYS IN SHSN WILL BE                          
CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN AND NRN PENN                      
(TAF SITES KJST AND KBFD).                                                      
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT                  
WILL USHER IN COLDER AIR...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS AND                
PERSISTENT MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL AND                 
NWRN PENN. AREAS OF LIFR/VLIFR CIGS/VSBYS WED AND WED NIGHT...WITH              
SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS SEEN FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AS THE                 
FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.                                                     
ANOTHER STORM WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION MAY AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY               
INTO SATURDAY.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ004>006-                  
010>012-017>019-025>027-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-058.                        
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY                  
NIGHT FOR PAZ017-024-033.                                                       
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE                        
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ004-005-010.                                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR                                                               
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR                                                              
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR                                                             
LONG TERM...BEACHLER                                                            
AVIATION...DEVOIR/LAMBERT/MARTIN                                                
</pre> pa                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1239 AM EST MON NOV 24 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A COLD FRONT WILL REACH OUR AREA FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY WITH SOME            
BREEZY CONDITIONS MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS.             
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION UNTIL THE END OF THE            
WEEK WHEN ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST.                            
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...                                                   
LATEST SAT/RUC ANALYSIS AND 00Z RAOBS SHOW WEAK UPR RDG W/ AXIS FROM            
MI...THRU THE OHIO VALLEY...TO WRN GULF OF MEXICO. MEANWHILE...A                
POTENT S/W TROF PROGRESSES ACRS THE UPR MS VALLEY. IN THE LOW                   
LVLS...A WEAK RDG AXIS WAS ANALYZED N-S ACRS THE TN VALLEY...W/ SOME            
DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE W OVR THE LWR MS VALLEY. DECENT H8-H7 WAA WAS            
OCCURRING ACRS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES...W/ SOME SCT LGT RA                
SHWRS DEVELOPING INVOF MEMPHIS...TO PADUCAH..TOWARD NASHVILLE.                  
THE LATEST MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE QPF FROM 00-06Z               
IN AFOREMENTIONED AREA (W/ THE EXCEPTION OF THE 00Z NAM WHICH SHOWED            
NONE OF THAT PRECIP.) WITH ALL THAT SAID...LTL CHANGE NEEDED TO POPS            
FOR THE PERIOD AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. MID LVL CLOUDS ARE                
MOVING INTO THE WRN QUARTER OF THE FA ATTM...AND TEMP HAVE SLOWED               
DOWN OR STOPPED DECREASING UNDER THE CLOUDS. WITH STRONGER H8 WAA               
ACRS THE SW MTNS COMMENCING BY 06Z...AND CURRENT TEMPS STILL IN THE             
MID-UPR 30S...I DID MY BEST TO ADJUST TEMP TRENDS AND MIN TEMPS IN              
THAT AREA. ALSO...TOP-DOWN METHODOLOGY ON 00Z GUIDANCE RESULTED IN              
LESS WINTRY PRECIP W/ ONSET DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HOWEVER...A              
WINTRY MIX W/ SLEET AN/OR FZRA IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE SWRN NC                 
VALLEYS WHERE POCKETS OF COLDER AIR MAY STILL BE IN PLACE. QPF SHUD             
BE TOO LGT TO WARRANT ANY ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...TRENDS               
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED. THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIP THIS                 
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO BE MENTIONED IN THE HWO.                               
THE HEAVIER QPF WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT                    
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND THE 850 MB JET INTENSIFIES THE WARM                
ADVECTION. THIS 50 KT JET WILL TRAVERSE THE NC MTNS DURING THE                  
AFTERNOON HOURS MONDAY...BUT LIKELY PRODUCE LITTLE MORE THAN BREEZY             
TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE RIDGE TOPS SINCE IT IS EMBEDDED IN               
WARM ADVECTION FLOW.                                                            
IN SITU CAD IN PLACE WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE                
BLUE RIDGE WILL KEEP MAXES BELOW MOS VALUES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON                
THROUGHOUT THE PIEDMONT...PROVIDED ENOUGH MEASURABLE RAIN FALLS BY              
EARLY AFTERNOON. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE FROM LESS THAN ONE QUARTER            
OF AN INCH ALONG THE EASTERN FRINGE TOMORROW TO AROUND AN INCH IN               
THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                                
AS OF 2 PM SUNDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS OUR AREA               
MONDAY NIGHT AS A CLOSED LOW MOVES JUST SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.               
SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING IN BOTH THE NAM AND GFS WILL MEAN HIGHER POPS             
MONDAY EVENING ACROSS OUR AREA. HAVE GONE WITH A COMPROMISE OF LOW              
END CATEGORICAL.                                                                
AFTER MIDNIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL END WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE               
LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS...WHILE A NORTHWEST FLOW PRECIPITATION EVENT               
BEGINS IN THE NC MOUNTAINS. FREEZING AND WET BULB ZERO LEVELS DROP              
TO THE VALLEY FLOORS BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...BUT WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY               
DURING THE DAY WITH MEAGER WARMING. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS WARMED A            
FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT WITH SOME VACILLATION             
BY THE MODELS...FORECAST TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE RAISED A DEGREE              
OR TWO. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE NC MOUNTAINS INTO TUE              
NIGHT...BUT THIS RUN OF THE WETTER AND PREFERRED GFS NOW DECREASE               
MOISTURE ALONG THE TN BORDER THROUGH THE NIGHT...ENDING THE EVENT BY            
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A BLEND OF GFS AND SREF QPF...ADJUSTED UP IN                 
FAVORED AREAS...YIELDS SNOWFALL TOTALS OF UP TO FOUR INCHES...WITH              
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. A WINTER STORM WATCH             
WILL BE ISSUED FOR OUR NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO              
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW ARE EXPECTED SOUTH TO THE             
SMOKIES...AND ALONG THE NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE.                                    
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT FEATURE A DRY SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE              
COASTAL SOUTHEAST. MOISTURE FROM A DEVELOPING GULF SYSTEM SPREAD                
NORTHEAST OVER THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE RIDGE...BUT LARGELY APPEARS             
TO REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREA. NOT MUCH WARMING IS EXPECTED IN THE            
LEE WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHT RISES ARE OFFSET BY A WEAKENING DOWNSLOPE               
FLOW...HOWEVER MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL SEE A GAIN OF A FEW DEGREES              
AS COLD ADVECTION ABATES.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                         
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...LEANED MORE TOWARD HPC THIS FCST. UPPER LOW             
FINALLY MOVES OFF E COAST THU WITH H5 RIDGE BUILDING OVER AREA WHILE            
SFC HI SLOWLY MOVES SE DURG DAY. THIS PUTS AREA IN MOIST SE FLOW AND            
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW AHEAD OF A SFC WAVE THAT DEVELOPS            
OVER N GULF STATES THU NIGHT-FRI. EVEN THOUGH GFS TAKES SYSTEM                  
FARTHER S THAN ECMWF...HPC USED A COMPROMISE THAT BRINGS THE SFC                
WAVE ACROSS N PART OF CWA SAT. WAA AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP              
TEMPS MILD WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FRI. POPS INCREASE TO             
SOLID CHANCE FRI NIGHT. THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN MODEL               
SOLUTIONS ATTM THAT I WILL NOT PAINT A SIGNIFICANT NW FLOW SNOW                 
EVENT OVER MTNS FOR THE WEEKEND. LEANED TOWARD WARMER HPC TEMPS                 
WHICH ARE STILL BELOW AVG BUT STILL ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW OVER HIGHER             
MTNS FRI NIGHT...THEN AGAIN SAT NIGHT. SYSTEM MOVES E OF AREA AND               
OFF THE COAST SUN WITH TEMPS COOLING A FEW DEG BEHIND IT.                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
VFR STRATOCU DECK CONTINUES TO SPREAD RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS THE                 
WESTERN CAROLINAS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE             
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE A CIG IN THE               
035-050 RANGE BY SUNRISE. MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE                 
DAYTIME HOURS...BUT NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUPPORT THIS ATTM...            
SO WE WILL LEAVE RESTRICTIONS OUT OF THE FORECASTS FOR NOW. MOISTURE            
WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM/COLD                
FRONT. HOWEVER...THE NEAR SURFACE AIR WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY...AND               
THIS COULD CAUSE A DELAY IN ONSET OF PRECIP. ADDITIONALLY...MODEL               
GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE SLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT.               
WITH THIS IN MIND...PRECIP TIMING HAS BEEN DELAYED 2-4 HOURS AT ALL             
TERMINALS. THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR VISBY/CIG RESTRICTIONS                    
ASSOCIATED WITH PRECIP WILL BE AFTER 00Z AT MOST TERMINALS.                     
OUTLOOK...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE MONDAY NIGHT                  
THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL MVFR               
CEILINGS POSSIBLY BLOWING UP THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY TO KAVL. THE               
NORTHWEST FLOW MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID                      
WEEK...WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.                  
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING             
     FOR NCZ033-049-050.                                                        
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...DEO                                                                  
NEAR TERM...ARK/HG                                                              
SHORT TERM...JAT                                                                
LONG TERM...RB                                                                  
AVIATION...ARK/JDL                                                              
</pre> sc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX                                         
751 PM CST MON NOV 24 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITTING FROM JUST                  
SOUTH OF LRD TO JUST SOUTH OF CRP...AND IS MOVING SOUTH AROUND 15               
MPH. THE LINE SHOULD REACH THE RIVER JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW                 
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT PASSES...BUT WILL BE FEW                
AND FAR BETWEEN. FOG SHOULDN`T HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF             
THE FRONT. LOWS LOOK ON TRACK FOR RIGHT AROUND 60...DROPPING                    
QUICKLY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. CURRENT FORECAST HAS ALL THIS                   
COVERED...SO NO UPDATES NEEDED.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS IN BOTH CIG/VSBY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT                   
WITH TEMPO MVFR IN CIG DUE TO A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE                   
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WINDS              
WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST INCREASING TO MODERATE LATER                   
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY.                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
AT 7 PM BOY020 REPORTED A NORTHEAST WINDS AT 8 KNOTS AND SEAS 3.6               
FEET AT 7 SECONDS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE                     
TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE                  
COASTAL WATERS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AT THIS TIME. WINDS AND SEAS                 
WILL CONTINUE TO BE JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA                    
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY CAUSING              
A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS WITH WINDS DECREASING ONCE                  
AGAIN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE                    
FRIDAY CAUSING POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FRIDAY NIGHT              
AND SATURDAY.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 142 PM CST MON NOV 24 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...CURRENT 18Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RUC                      
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT OVER THE CORPUS CHRISTI CWA WITH                  
5 TO 10 KTS SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SCATTERED                    
CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS ARA MAINLY LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN                   
HALF OF THE BRO CWA WITH MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN                 
THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS ENTERING               
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF ZAPATA COUNTY. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THE                
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF                 
SHOWERS THIS EVENING.                                                           
A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE PREFERRED                      
SOLUTION FOR THE GRIDS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE                
REMAINING OF THE WEEK. IN THE SHORT TERM AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE               
FRONT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AHEAD                
OF A DEEPER TROF OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL ENTER THE SW US TOWARD               
THE LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK. UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER DEEP SOUTH                 
TEXAS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AND THEN WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY AS              
THE JET ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST              
TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO BY NEXT WEEKEND.                                      
BY WED 06Z SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AND START                     
INCREASING OUR TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER TO A MAX OF AROUND 1.60 BY              
THE END OF THE WEEK JUST PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT                       
FRONT/TROF FROM THE SW US. THE SURFACE NE WINDS EXPECTED TO START               
SATURDAY MORNING COULD BRING OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION TO DEEP                  
SOUTH TEXAS WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS                
THE UNCERTAINTY DECREASES WITH THE AMPLITUDE AND TRACK OF THIS                  
PACIFIC STORM THE GRIDS WILL BE CONTINUOUSLY UPDATED THROUGHOUT                 
THE WEEK.                                                                       
THE 12Z ECMWF HAVE COME IN LINE MORE WITH THE 12Z GFS AND STILL                 
SHOW THE ECMWF HAVING A MORE ABRUPT DROP IN THE DEWPOINTS FOR DEEP              
SOUTH TEXAS IN COMPARISON WITH THE GFS...HOWEVER...THE GFS DROPS TO             
LOWER DEWPOINTS THAN THE ECMWF BY MONDAY. BOTH THE NEW GFS AND ECMWF            
DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHER THAN FROM THE PREVIOUS RUNS.                               
&&                                                                              
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:                                   
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE                                              
64/65                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX                                         
142 PM CST MON NOV 24 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...CURRENT 18Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RUC                     
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT OVER THE CORPUS CHRISTI CWA WITH                  
5 TO 10 KTS SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SCATTERED                    
CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS ARA MAINLY LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN                   
HALF OF THE BRO CWA WITH MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN                 
THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS ENTERING               
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF ZAPATA COUNTY. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THE                
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF                 
SHOWERS THIS EVENING.                                                           
A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE PREFERRED                      
SOLUTION FOR THE GRIDS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE                
REMAINING OF THE WEEK. IN THE SHORT TERM AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE               
FRONT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AHEAD                
OF A DEEPER TROF OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL ENTER THE SW US TOWARD               
THE LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK. UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER DEEP SOUTH                 
TEXAS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AND THEN WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY AS              
THE JET ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST              
TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO BY NEXT WEEKEND.                                      
BY WED 06Z SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AND START                     
INCREASING OUR TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER TO A MAX OF AROUND 1.60 BY              
THE END OF THE WEEK JUST PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT                       
FRONT/TROF FROM THE SW US. THE SURFACE NE WINDS EXPECTED TO START               
SATURDAY MORNING COULD BRING OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION TO DEEP                  
SOUTH TEXAS WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS                
THE UNCERTAINTY DECREASES WITH THE AMPLITUDE AND TRACK OF THIS                  
PACIFIC STORM THE GRIDS WILL BE CONTINUOUSLY UPDATED THROUGHOUT                 
THE WEEK.                                                                       
THE 12Z ECMWF HAVE COME IN LINE MORE WITH THE 12Z GFS AND STILL                 
SHOW THE ECMWF HAVING A MORE ABRUPT DROP IN THE DEWPOINTS FOR DEEP              
SOUTH TEXAS IN COMPARISON WITH THE GFS...HOWEVER...THE GFS DROPS TO             
LOWER DEWPOINTS THAN THE ECMWF BY MONDAY. BOTH THE NEW GFS AND ECMWF            
DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHER THAN FROM THE PREVIOUS RUNS.                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...THE 1 PM OBSERVATION FROM BUOY 42020 INDICATED WINDS WERE             
WEST SOUTHWEST AROUND 4 KTS AND SEAS WERE AROUND 4 FT WITH A PERIOD             
OF 8 SECONDS. MTRPIL REPORTED AN EAST NORTHEAST WIND AROUND 7 KTS.              
RELATIVELY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS OBSERVED TODAY COMPARED THE LAST             
COUPLE DAYS. CHC FOR SCT SHRAS ARE POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE DAY AS A            
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT WINDS TO                
REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THRU THIS AFTN               
BEFORE BECOMING NORTHEAST BY THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD THEN                    
INCREASE SOMETIME AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA. A              
MODERATE NORTHEAST WIND WILL REMAIN THRU THE DAYTIME HRS ON TUESDAY             
BUT BEGIN TO RELAX BY LATE IN THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER.              
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT THRU TUESDAY COULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT                 
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS AT 20 TO 60                  
NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. BASED ON LATEST OBS AND GUIDANCE...THINK               
CAUTION STATEMENT WILL SUFFICE FOR NOW...BUT LATER SHIFT COULD                  
DECIDE IF STRONGER WORDING IS NEEDED.                                           
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH                 
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO ESTABLISH                
AN ONSHORE FLOW WITH MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS. THIS PATTERN WILL                
LIKELY THEN HOLD THROUGH THANKSGIVING INTO FRIDAY. CONDITIONS WITH              
THIS TYPE OF PATTERN MAY RESEMBLE THE SAME CONDITIONS THAT WERE                 
EXPERIENCED THIS LAST WEEKEND WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND SCT SHRAS.                  
ANOTHER POTENTIALLY STRONGER COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS                  
THROUGH THE LOWER TX COASTAL WATERS LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY.              
MARINE CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT WILL HAVE THE                       
POTENTIAL TO APPROACH OR EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.                  
SEAS THE REST OF TODAY SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY WITH AN                      
INCREASE EXPECTED ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES. SEAS WILL REMAIN                  
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE A SLIGHT DECREASE IS                   
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. BUILDING SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED              
ONCE AGAIN TO TAKE PLACE POST FRONTAL LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VSBL SATL IMAGERY SHOWS CU DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CWA               
THIS AFTN. CLD BANDS ASSOC A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH              
FROM AROUND CRP TO LRD. EXPECT CLDS TO HANG ON THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME            
SCT SHRAS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FROPA. A LIGHT AND VARIABLE                
WINDS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTN BEFORE BECOMING NORTHEAST BY THIS                   
EVENING. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH                
TUESDAY. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HRS.                   
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 940 AM CST MON NOV 24 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SCT SHRAS LATER TODAY AS A COLD FRONT                     
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY                   
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND TODAY WILL BACK                   
NORTHEASTERLY ON TUESDAY AND REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTN.              
ECMWF...NAM...AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM                   
DEPICTING WELL A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR TONIGHT. IN THE EXTENDED              
RANGE THE ECMWF SHOWS A SHARP DECREASE IN DEWPOINTS AFTER FRIDAY                
AT 18Z DOWN TO 45F AT BROWNSVILLE...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A GRADUAL               
DECREASE DOWN TO 55F BY MONDAY MORNING. UPDATED THE GRIDS TO KEEP               
A 50...50 BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS                   
MODEL UNCERTAINTY. NO TEMPERATURE CHANGES WERE DONE AT THIS                     
TIME.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  64  72  63  79 /  20  10  20  10                           
BROWNSVILLE          61  73  59  81 /  20  10  10  10                           
HARLINGEN            59  72  57  82 /  10  10  10  10                           
MCALLEN              61  73  57  82 /  10  10  10  10                           
RIO GRANDE CITY      59  71  57  80 /  20  10  10  20                           
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   64  73  63  78 /  30  10  10  20                           
&&                                                                              
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:                                   
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE                                              
53/57                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
1255 AM EST WED NOV 26 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD                 
INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN                
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES...WITH MAINLY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS                      
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.                  
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...                                    
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SITUATED OVER NORTHERN NY CONTINUES TO                   
SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. RADAR RETURNS ALONG THE                        
NY-STATE THRUWAY CONTINUE TO REVEAL SOME ENHANCEMENTS. RUC13 SEEMS              
TO BE CAPTURING THE WEAK DEFORMATION AXIS AROUND 800MB WITH STEEP               
LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 800-500MB. THIS POCKET OF STEEP LAPSE RATES IS              
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE CWA /EXCEPTION WOULD BE THE MID              
HUDSON VALLEY AND MOST OF NW CT/ AND WILL INTRODUCE LOW POPS TO                 
ACCOUNT FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS.                                                  
WITHIN THE BETTER CONCENTRATION OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE                       
THRUWAY...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AND              
THE BAND OF SNOW WILL LIFT INTO NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY AND THE                
DACKS AROUND MIDNIGHT. WILL INCLUDE 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW AT THIS                  
TIME AS LAKE CONTRIBUTION WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS DELTA T/S                  
INCREASE OVER LAKE ONTARIO.                                                     
PREVIOUS AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...                                                
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS IN THE PROCESS OF CONSOLIDATING                  
ACROSS NORTHERN NY STATE...AND WILL BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AS                
IT LIFTS NORTHWESTWARD INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST ONTARIO JUST NORTH                
OF LAKE ONTARIO. WITH THE COLD CORE UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW                     
DRIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN PA AND CENTRAL NY...LIGHT RAIN               
HAS BEEN CHANGING TO SNOW WEST OF ALBANY...WITH MODERATE SNOW                   
FALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AT THIS HOUR. PRECIP                    
SHIELD IS RAPIDLY PROGRESSING NORTHWARD...SO WILL EXPIRE WINTER                 
STORM WARNINGS FOR THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN                 
CATSKILLS AS WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ENDING.                            
STEADY PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE LOW AND               
ASSOC FORCING MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. WILL STILL HAVE TO LINGER LIKELY            
POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS            
A WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE ASSOC WITH THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS THROUGH.                
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL ONLY BE AROUND AN INCH. OTHERWISE            
TEMPS WILL GET BACK DOWN TO BELOW FREEZING TOWARDS MORNING WITH COLD            
AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...                  
FAIRLY STAGNANT PATTERN SHAPING UP FROM WED THROUGH THUR NIGHT                  
ACROSS THE AREA...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED VERTICALLY STACKED LOW                  
BASICALLY SITS AND SPINS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST ONTARIO INTO                  
SOUTHERN QUEBEC...WITH A WSW CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME SETTING UP ACROSS             
OUR REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS              
NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW                 
SHOWERS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ORGANIZED               
LAKE EFFECT BANDS WILL NOT AFFECT OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH AVERAGE              
MIXED LAYER FLOW TRAJECTORY OF 230-240 DEGREES WHICH WOULD PLACE                
ORGANIZED BANDS NORTH AND WEST FROM THE TUG HILL INTO THE ST                    
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. THERE MAY BE SOME VEERING OF THE WINDS AS THE            
LOW HEADS FARTHER NORTH BY THUR INTO THUR NIGHT...WHICH MAY ALLOW               
FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF LAKE BANDS TO DRIFT INTO NORTHERN                        
HERKIMER/HAMILTON COUNTIES. FOR NOW WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS IN                 
THESE FAVORED AREAS THROUGH THUR NIGHT...WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS               
EACH PERIOD SO NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED FOR NOW.                             
TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM BOTH WED AND THUR...WITH LOWER TO MID              
30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE                  
VALLEYS.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                          
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH                
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR FRIDAY. BOTH THE LATEST 12Z                     
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS...AS WELL AS ALL OF THE 12Z               
MREF MEMBERS...AGREE THAT THIS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL QUICKLY              
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITH LITTLE FANFARE. WHILE SOME EARLIER RUNS            
SHOWED THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM PHASING WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM FOR            
SATURDAY...IT APPEARS THAT THIS CLIPPER WILL BE MOVING FAST ENOUGH              
THAT THE TIMING WON/T CLICK QUITE RIGHT FOR A BIG STORM TO DEVELOP.             
HENCE...IT APPEARS THAT WE/LL ONLY BE DEALING WITH SOME RAIN OR SNOW            
SHOWERS FOR DURING THE DAY WITH THE SATURDAY. WHILE IT WILL BE                  
COOLER THAN NORMAL...IT SHOULD BE JUST WARM ENOUGH AT THE BOUNDARY              
LAYER IN THE VALLEYS FOR RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...ALTHOUGH                 
HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER...WITH THE                 
PRECIP COMING MAINLY DURING THE DAY...AND BEING QUITE LIGHT IN BOTH             
QPF AND INTENSITY...WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH ACCUMULATION.                         
THE NEXT FEATURE TO KEEP AN EYE ON WILL BE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH            
THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF/GFS AND MANY OF THE MREF MEMBERS DO HINT THAT A            
SOUTHERN STREAM STORM MAY DEVELOP AND RIDE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD              
SOMETIME LATE SUN INTO MON. THE ECMWF PREFERS A MORE INLAND                     
TRACK...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW OFFSHORE. DESPITE THE ECMWF/S               
INLAND TRACK...IT KEEPS TEMPERATURES QUITE COLD...DESPITE A STRONG              
987 MB LOW. WOULD THINK THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE TOO COLD WITH ITS                 
850 MB TEMPS /AROUND -6 C AT KALB AROUND 12Z MONDAY/ IF SUCH A                  
STRONG STORM WOULD TAKE PLACE AND TRACK ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT                
MODEL/S PROJECTION. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH...MANY OF THE 12Z MREF                 
PLUMES SHOW P-TYPE MAINLY AS RAIN FOR KALB...AS THE ENSEMBLE                    
MEMBERS HAVE A VARIETY OF TRACKS AND TIMING FOR THIS SYSTEM.                    
OBVIOUSLY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY...SO WILL PLAY THE TYPICAL LONG                
RANGE FORECAST OF LOW CHC POPS AND CALLING FOR RAIN/SNOW BASED ON               
ELEVATION AND DIURNAL TRENDS.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                     
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS COVERED MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES AREA EXTENDING            
FROM SOUTHERN HUDSONS BAY DOWN THROUGH MICHIGAN AND OHIO AND EAST               
ACROSS ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF NEW YORK. THERE WERE                  
WIDESPREAD REGIONS OF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS NORTH AND WEST OF                   
ALBANY. ALBANY AND ROME HAD MVFR VISIBILITY WHILE THE HUDSON                    
VALLEY SOUTH OF ALBANY WAS VFR AND MOSTLY CLEAR...AS WERE MOST                  
OF THE BERKSHIRES SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE  AND NORTHWESTERN                      
CONNECTICUT. SOME OF THE LOW CLOUDS WEST OF THE CATSKILLS WILL                  
LIKELY OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE MID HUDSON REGION BUT CEILINGS                    
IN THE HUDSON VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE VFR MINIMUMS. HOWEVER                  
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND THE                      
LITCHFIELD HILLS CEILINGS WILL PROBABLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR.                    
WHILE THE CEILING AT GLENS FALLS WAS VFR FOG HAS LOWERED THE                    
VISIBLITY TO BETWEEN 1/2 AND 2 MILES...AND IT IS LIKELY TO                      
REMAIN IFR...AT LEAST PART OF THE TIME...UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK.                  
STRATOCU WILL LIKELY PERSIST MUCH OF TODAY WITH CEILINGS CLOSE                  
TO VFR MINIMUMS TO THE NORTH AND LIKELY BECOMING MVFR LATE IN                   
THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE WEATHER FARTHER                    
SOUTH. WINDS WILL MOSTLY BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH.                               
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
THU-FRI...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-SHSN...MAINLY IN THE NORTH.                      
SAT-SUN AM...VFR. NO SIG WX.                                                    
SUN PM...VFR/MVFR. CHC -RA/-SN.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
A WINTER STORM BROUGHT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION                  
ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION TOTALS WERE HIGHEST IN               
OUR EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES WHERE 2.0                 
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT FELL AT GRAFTON VERMONT...1.83 INCHES               
FELL AT CONKLINGVILLE DAM IN SARATOGA COUNTY...1.64 INCHES FELL AT              
TABORTON IN RENSSELAER COUNTY...1.26 INCHES FELL AT SAVOY                       
MASSACHUSETTS...1.15 INCHES FELL AT NEW HARTFORD IN LITCHFIELD                  
COUNTY CONNECTICUT...AND 1.10 INCHES FELL AT THE ALBANY AIRPORT.                
THE PRECIPITATION CAME MOSTLY AS RAIN FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTH              
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE HIGHER              
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...GREEN MOUNTAINS...AND CATSKILLS.                
WITHIN-BANKS RISES OF 6 INCHES TO OVER 2 FEET OCCURRED ON THE RIVERS            
WITH THE HOOSIC RIVER COMING UP TWO AND A HALF FEET AT EAGLE BRIDGE             
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RIVERS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND              
THE FLOOD WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY                 
EASTWARD WAS CANCELLED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AFTER THE THREAT OF                    
FLOODING SUBSIDED.                                                              
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS...WITH A FEW SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED            
THROUGH SUNDAY. RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO CREST TODAY OR TOMORROW...AND            
SLOWLY RECEDE THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.                                 
ANOTHER LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND               
MONDAY. SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THAT STORM...BUT             
THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH WILL COME IN WHAT FORM.             
SHOULD MOST OR ALL OF IT COME AS RAIN...IT COULD CAUSE SOME FLOODING            
PROBLEMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                                       
FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC                
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.                                
&&                                                                              
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
MA...NONE.                                                                      
VT...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...JPV/RCK                                                              
NEAR TERM...BGM/RCK                                                             
SHORT TERM...JPV                                                                
LONG TERM...FRUGIS                                                              
AVIATION...RCK                                                                  
HYDROLOGY...SND/RCK                                                             
FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT                            
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY                                                          
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
430 AM EST WED NOV 26 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A RIDGE TO THE LEE OF                 
ROCKIES WITH DOWNSTREAM TROF FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE NE CONUS WHICH            
FEATURES A MID/UPPER LOW OVER NEW YORK STATE. FLOW HAS SPLIT INTO               
THE W COAST WITH A TROF APPROACHING CA AND A MAIN STREAM SHORTWAVE              
TROF MOVING ONSHORE IN THE PACIFIC NW/WRN CANADA WHERE 12HR 500MB               
HEIGHT FALLS WERE AROUND 90M. IT IS THIS NRN SHORTWAVE THAT WILL                
AFFECT THE WEATHER HERE THANKSGIVING DAY/NIGHT AS IT DROPS SE INTO              
THE MEAN ERN TROF. CLOSER TO HOME...AIRMASS IS NOT REALLY COLD                  
ENOUGH FOR LES IN THE ABSENCE OF SYNOPTIC FORCING (THERE ARE ONLY A             
FEW HINTS OF FLURRIES OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR ON KMQT AND MONTREAL               
RIVER RADARS). 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOWED 850MB TEMPS RANGING ONLY FROM               
-2/-5C AT KINL/CWPL RESPECTIVELY TO -8C AT KGRB/KAPX. LOW INVERSION             
AROUND 920MB/2.6KFT MSL AT KINL/CWPL IS ANOTHER STRONG INHIBITOR FOR            
LES DEVELOPMENT. END RESULT IS A STRATUS/STRATOCU DECK...MAINLY OFF             
CNTRL/ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...AS AIRMASS MOVING OVER THE W LAKE PER 00Z             
KINL SOUNDING IS DRIER.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
QUIET DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY. UPPER LOW OVER NEW               
YORK IS PROGGED TO DRIFT NW TODAY...BUT STILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO              
THE E THAT -SN ON THE NW AND W FRINGE OF SYSTEM WILL REMAIN E OF THE            
FCST AREA. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN 850MB TEMPS OR TEMPS NEAR THE                  
INVERSION BASE (WARMING IF ANYTHING)...LES WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE                 
TODAY. HOWEVER...OVER THE NE FCST AREA...THERE MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES            
OR SPOTTY VERY LIGHT -DZ (-FZDZ IN THE MORNING) AS MOIST LAYER WARMS            
ABOVE -10C...BUT POTENTIAL IS SO LIMITED WILL NOT MENTION. PLENTY OF            
STRATOCU SHOULD REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER INVERSION...MAINLY FROM AROUND             
THE KEWEENAW TO THE E HALF OF UPPER MI UNDER PERSISTENT NWRLY FLOW.             
WITH DRIER AIR FLOWING ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...EXPECT SOME SUN               
OVER THE FAR W AND SW. EVEN OVER THE W WHERE SOME SUN WILL                      
OCCUR...LOW MIXING HEIGHTS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK. IN GENERAL...              
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 30S ACROSS THE BOARD.                                       
TONIGHT...UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TO THE E OF                   
GEORGIAN BAY ALONG ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER AND ANY DEEP LAYER FORCING             
AROUND THE W SIDE OF SYSTEM WILL STILL REMAIN E OF THE FCST AREA.               
LOW-LEVEL TEMP STRUCTURE CHANGES LITTLE THOUGH THE NAM HINTS THAT               
THE MOISTURE DEPTH MAY IMPROVE A BIT OVER THE FAR E AS MOISTURE                 
ADVECTS WWD. THIS WOULD MINIMIZE POTENTIAL OF ANY -DZ/-FZDZ AS                  
MOISTURE WILL EXTEND TO AT LEAST -10C. IN LIGHT OF THE NAM                      
OUTPUT...WILL CARRY A MENTION OF SOME FLURRIES TONIGHT OVER THE ERN             
FCST AREA. EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE ELSEWHERE. BEFORE HIGH/MID            
CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE NW...CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES                
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE TEENS OVER THE W TONIGHT.                   
ON THANKGIVING DAY...ATTENTION WILL TURN TO SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER            
BRITISH COLUMBIA/WA. IT WILL REACH WI/UPPER MI BY EVENING. THERE                
ARE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF SHORTWAVE (GFS AT SRN END OF             
GUIDANCE)...BUT MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE POINTS TO THE MAIN STRIPE OF               
SNOW/DEEP LAYER FORCING STREAKING ACROSS THE FCST AREA THU                      
AFTN/EVENING. IT REALLY WON`T BE A SITUATION FOR ISENTROPIC ASCENT              
AIDED PCPN DUE TO LACK OF WAA. SO...THAT WILL BE A MISSING FACTOR TO            
BOOST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. 850MB TEMPS OF -6 TO -8C ACROSS LAKE                  
SUPERIOR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A PERIOD OF SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT               
UNDER W WINDS SHIFTING NWRLY. WITH RESPECTABLE DEEP LAYER FORCING...            
EXPECT A QUICK SHOT OF -SN WITH ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY AROUND 1                
INCH OVER THE FCST AREA. LAKE ENHANCEMENT SHOULD BOOST TOTALS A                 
LITTLE...TO 2 MAYBE 3 INCHES OVER THE NW FCST AREA. LES WILL THEN               
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE THU NIGHT THOUGH 850MB TEMPS               
AREN`T ESPECIALLY LOW...ONLY DROPPING TO -10C. GFS SHOWS A MORE                 
DRAMATIC LOSS OF DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE W WITH SUBSIDENCE/LOWERING              
INVERSION TO 4-5KFT THU NIGHT. WHILE NAM MAINTAINS A MUCH DEEPER                
MOISTURE PROFILE...DOWNWARD MOTION IS DOMINATING THE DENDRITIC SNOW             
GROWTH TEMP ZONE (DGZ). TO THE E...THE GFS MAINTAINS A DEEP MOISTURE            
PROFILE THRU THE NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...BUT UPWARD MOTION IS                  
CONFINED BELOW THE DGZ. WHILE THE GFS IS GENERALLY FAVORED PER HPC              
DISCUSSION...EVEN IF THE NAM IS CORRECT...ITS GUIDANCE DOESN`T FAVOR            
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE LES REGIME BEHIND THE                     
SHORTWAVE THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS MESOSCALE FORCED UPWARD MOTION                  
REMAINS BELOW THE DGZ. THUS...OVERALL...IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE LES                
WILL BE A BIG DEAL. PROBABLY LOOKING AT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 1-2 TO             
MAYBE 3 INCH RANGE OVERNIGHT THU THRU FRI MORNING IN THE NW FLOW                
FAVORED SNOWBELTS. ANOTHER INCH POSSIBLE FRI AFTN...MAINLY E...AS               
DRYING PROGRESSES E INTO THE UPPER LAKES.                                       
BEYOND FRI...PATTERN REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH FCST AREA UNDER THE                
INFLUENCE OF ERN NAMERICA TROF. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE                  
SLIDING SE INTO THE ERN TROF OVER THE WEEKEND THRU AT LEAST THE                 
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AIRMASS WILL GENERALLY BE COLD ENOUGH TO                   
SUPPORT LES WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED PERIODICALLY BY PASSING                      
SHORTWAVES. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY                
SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL OCCUR.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
OVERALL EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL AT KCMX/KSAW THRU THE THE FCST              
PERIOD AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW A PERSISTENT                 
STRONG INVERSION. CLOUDS COULD BRIEFLY SCATTER OUT AT KCMX...BUT NOT            
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IS PRESENT TO INCLUDE ANY TEMPO GROUPS FOR SCT. AT            
KSAW...MVFR CIGS ARE JUST TO THE EAST...WHICH WILL FILTER BACK IN               
BTWN 12Z-15Z AS A SFC TROUGH DROPS SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.                  
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
EASTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF                
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW NEAR LAKE ONTARIO. EXPECT NORTHERLY            
WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...                 
POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 30 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS              
THE LOW BEGINS LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN QUEBEC. ACROSS WESTERN            
LAKE SUPERIOR...THE EFFECTS FROM SFC RIDGING WILL RESULT IN LIGHTER             
WINDS THERE. ON THU...THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS IT                 
CROSSES LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOK FOR A LOW PRESSURE AREA TO FOLLOW IN THE            
WAKE OF THE RIDGE...CROSSING UPPER MICHIGAN THU AFTN. IN ITS                    
WAKE...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL DOMINATE LAKE SUPERIOR            
FOR LATER THU NIGHT INTO FRI. GUSTS COULD REACH 30 KNOTS ON EASTERN             
LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRI. ANOTHER WEAKENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS             
EXPECTED TO CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...ALLOWING WINDS             
TO RELAX BELOW 20 KNOTS. FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...LOW PRESSURE                  
DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN              
WILL CAUSE NORTH WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS ON ALL OF LAKE             
SUPERIOR.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...ROLFSON                                                   
AVIATION...JLB/AJ                                                               
MARINE...AJ                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH                                           
351 AM EST WED NOV 26 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL MEANDER ACROSS                  
ONTARIO THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER                 
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY AND DRAG ANOTHER COLD FRONT                   
ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY MOVE                    
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND THEN ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL                   
AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
AS THE FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY THE CLOUDS WILL DECREASE OVER NORTHWEST            
AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO. ELSEWHERE EXCEPT IN THE SNOW BELT COULD SEE             
SOME PEEKS OF SUN. MOST MODELS HAVE THE FLOW WESTERLY FOR THE                   
AFTERNOON. THE RUC KEEPS IT 290 DEGREES. IF THE RUC IS RIGHT THIS               
WOULD KEEP SOME SNOW SHOWERS GOING LONGER IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF              
SUMMIT...PORTAGE AND TRUMBULL. AT THIS TIME WILL GO WITH THE FLOW               
BECOME WESTERLY ALOFT BY NOON. WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY MAINLY FOR            
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SUMMIT AND PORTAGE COUNTIES. WILL MONITOR              
CONDITIONS AND MAY BE ABLE TO DROP SUMMIT COUNTY BY DAYBREAK. WILL              
NOT CHANGE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO LAKE EFFECT...THAT WOULD BE               
CONFUSING...BUT EMPHASIZE THE NORTH. FOR CUYAHOGA ON THE EDGE                   
WHETHER THE ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING. THE                 
MODELS ARE TRYING TO INDICATE A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS                  
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...WITH THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE BARELY               
13C AND SOME DRYING NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH EXTEND THE ADVISORY.                   
ELSEWHERE IN THE SNOW BELT EXCEPT FOR NORTHWEST PA THE MODELS ONLY              
TRY TO GIVE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW. NOT CONVINCED THAT IS RIGHT.                  
LOCATIONS RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE HAVE BEEN RAIN. THEY SHOULD BECOME               
SNOW BY 12Z. WILL NOT MENTION THAT IN THE FORECAST AT THE MOMENT.               
WENT CLOSE TO MAV MOS FOR HIGHS TODAY...THE SUN WILL HELP                       
TEMPERATURES MODERATE.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...                       
IN THE WESTERLY FLOW...ON THE EDGE ABOUT HOW LONG THE SIGNIFICANT               
SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE WITH THE 850 MB WARMING AND SOME DRYING                  
ALOFT...AND THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE JUST NEAR 13C. NO                   
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVES OVERNIGHT BUT CYCLONIC FLOW. THE LOCAL                  
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING WARNING AMOUNTS FOR LATE TONIGHT.              
AT THIS TIME WILL NOT EXTEND THE WARNINGS. THE DAYSHIFT WILL HAVE TO            
MONITOR THIS. ELSEWHERE PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS. THE                 
AREAS WITH SNOWCOVER WILL BE FAIRLY COOL. WENT A LITTLE COLDER THAN             
GUIDANCE.                                                                       
FOR THURSDAY SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUING FROM ASHTABULA COUNTY             
EAST INTO NW PA...AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP IT            
A 60 POP WITH ADEQUATE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE. ELSEWHERE PARTLY CLOUDY.            
THE MORNING WILL START WITH SOME SUN AND THEN INCREASING                        
CIRRUS...PARTLY CLOUDY SHOULD WORK. BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS THAT WILL             
KEEP THE HIGHS FROM GETTING TOO WARM. WENT WITH THE WARMER MOS                  
NUMBERS.                                                                        
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS ESPECIALLY THE NAM IS KIND OF DRY               
I.E. NOT MUCH QPF. WITH THE FRONT MOVING IN AND SOME QUESTION WHEN              
THEY WILL SWITCH AND COME OFF THE LAKE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE            
POPS MAINLY EAST OF CLE.                                                        
ON FRIDAY THE QPF FROM THE NAM IF VERY ISOLATED WHILE THE GFS HAS               
SOME QPF EVERYWHERE...THE HIGHEST CHANCE WILL BE THE SNOWBELT EVEN              
THOUGH THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE NEAR 12C.             
WILL PROBABLY KEEP JUST 20 POPS NORTHWEST OHIO AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT             
STRONG ENOUGH. THE GEM IS DRY AND THE ECMWF IS LIKE THE GFS WITH                
SOME QPF. THE SLOWNESS OF THE NAM AND GEM MOVING IN THE MOISTURE IS             
THE REASON WHY IT IS SO DRY.                                                    
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WILL WILL CONTINUE THE FORECAST AS IS. AGAIN THE               
NAM AND GEM ARE DRY BUT THE OTHER MODELS HAVE SOME QPF. WITH THE                
FLOW SOMEWHAT NORTHWEST AND SOME MOISTURE AND THE LAKE AND 850 MB               
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE NEAR 13 AND 14C THAT SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH               
FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND WITH SOME CYCLONICNESS ALOFT THAT WILL                
HELP. MODELS DEFINITELY DON`T AGREE. THIS DISAGREEMENT CONTINUES                
INTO SATURDAY. WILL KEEP THE WEST DRY AND LIMIT THE CHANCE IN THE               
EAST TO MAINLY THE MORNING.                                                     
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THE GFS SEEMS TO INCREASE THE MOISTURE WAY TO                
QUICKLY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM. WILL KEEP IT DRY.                                 
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WENT WITH GRIDDED MOS FOR             
THE TEMPERATURES. THEY LOOK REASONABLE.                                         
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                          
FEW CHANGES TO LONG TERM PERIOD.  MODELS NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT             
WITH SMALL FEATURES TODAY SO A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST.  THUS            
WILL HOLD OFF ON MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.  PERIOD WILL START             
WITH LINGERING PRECIP CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH COLD FLOW ACROSS                
LAKE ERIE.  NEXT LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES ON            
SUNDAY AND DRAG A FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.  GFS AND ECMWF HAVE                    
DIFFERING SOLUTIONS FOR THIS SYSTEM SO FOR NOW WILL JUST GO WITH                
CHANCE WORDING ALL AREAS.  FINE TUNING WILL BE NEEDED AS MODELS COME            
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.  THERE WILL BE LINGERING LAKE EFFECT BEHIND              
THIS FRONT ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  HAVE LOWERED TEMPS FROM                      
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE OH AND NW PA WHERE A SIGNIFICANT                
SNOW PACK WILL REMAIN ON THE GROUND.                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                     
SURFACE LOW HAS NOW TRANSLATED TO NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE IN CLOSE              
PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER SYSTEM. SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE NORTH INTO                  
SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO FOR WEDNESDAY. MOIST NORTHWEST         
FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM CONTINUES ALOFT OVER THE AREA HOWEVER MUCH               
OF THE SYNOPTIC FORCING HAS DISSIPATED. WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS                  
THE AREA EARLIER IN THE EVENING HAS DIMINISHED INTO TWO WEAK                    
BANDS. ONE BAND IS AFFECTING KYNG WHILE THE OTHER EXTENDS THROUGH               
LORAIN COUNTY INTO MEDINA COUNTY AND POINTS SSE. AS WINDS BACK                  
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT EXPECT THESE BANDS TO BECOME                
DISRUPTED AND LIKELY DISSIPATE AS THEY DRIFT EAST. LAKE-850MB                   
TEMPS SHOWING ONLY CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY SO MAY ONLY PRODUCE                  
LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR ERIE LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS                 
LONG FETCH WEST WINDS TAKE ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTO THE ERIE                   
AREA. IN GENERAL...THROUGH THE NIGHT EXPECT CEILINGS TO SLOWLY                  
LIFT FROM THE WEST AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.                
ACROSS THE WEST EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. IN THE CENTRAL                 
AND EAST MORNING MVFR WILL LIFT TO VFR THROUGH THE DAY.                         
OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD VFR EXPECTED THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES               
ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. MORE SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AS ANOTHER                 
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AGAIN AND LIKELY VFR               
ACROSS THE AREA. SUNDAY EXPECT MVFR/IFR TO MOVE BACK IN AS ANOTHER              
SYSTEM DRAGS DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE LOWER LAKES.                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
SMALL CRAFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW OVER NEW                 
ENGLAND WILL DRIFT INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO THURSDAY THUS KEEPING A                
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE LAKE.  SMALL CRAFT WILL BE NEEDED              
AGAIN FRIDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE.  ALSO                 
EXPECT MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS 850 TEMPS DROP TO -9C.                          
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR                  
     OHZ012>014-089.                                                            
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR OHZ011-                   
     021>023.                                                                   
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR                  
     PAZ001>003.                                                                
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR                       
     LEZ142>149.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA                                                             
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA                                                            
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA                                                           
LONG TERM...DJB/KUBINA                                                          
AVIATION...TK                                                                   
MARINE...DJB                                                                    
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA                                             
1040 AM EST WED NOV 26 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL PROVIDE MAINLY DRY          
AND COOL WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.             
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION          
FRI. MAINLY DRY AND COOL WEATHER RETURNS SAT. LOW PRES APPROACHING              
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER SUNDAY OR EARLY NEXT WEEK PRODUCES THE NEXT          
CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN OR SNOW.                                             
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
MXD SNOW SLEET AND RAIN OCEAN EFFECT PRECIPITATION INVADING CAPE COD            
WILL TRANSITION TO SCT RAIN SHOWERS MIDDAY AND THEN END AS FLOW TURNS           
MORE WLY THIS AFTERNOON.                                                        
OTRW THE TYPICAL INSTABILITY INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN SPRINKLES/FLURRIES           
THIS AFTERNOON AS ALREADY GRIDDED FROM PREV SHIFTS.                             
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...                       
ANY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END AROUND SUNSET AS                   
DIURNAL HEATING DIMINISHES AND UPPER LEVEL TROF EXITS NORTHEAST.                
THEREFORE EXPECTING DRY WEATHER TONIGHT ALONG WITH DECREASING                   
CLOUDS.  SEASONABLY COLD TEMPS ARE ALSO EXPECTED.                               
SREF AND GFS CONT TO ADVERTISE REDEVELOPMENT OF OCEAN EFFECT SHOWERS            
TONIGHT AT NANTUCKET AND MVY AND THIS COULD BE A CHANGE WE MAKE IN              
THE 4 PM FCST.                                                                  
MORE OF THE SAME THANKSGIVING DAY AS MID/UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN            
OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...WITH WEAK SHORT WAVES            
PINWHEELING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SO ANOTHER ROUND OF CLOUDS             
ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY DURING MAX HEATING. FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP              
FORECAST DRY AS MODEL TIME SECTIONS SUGGEST COLUMN DRIER THU THAN               
TODAY.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                          
FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. A DEVELOPING             
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE                  
REGION. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS FAIRLY WEAK EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY              
OF THE COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY...WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT AND              
SOUTH WINDS TRANSPORTING MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE. THERE APPEARS TO              
BE A BRIEF GULF MOISTURE CONNECTION WHICH SHOULD TEMPORARILY HELP               
INCREASE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. A SHORT WAVE WILL ACCOMPANY THE             
FRONT...BUT IT APPEARS TO DAMPEN WITH TIME. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE             
HIGHER TERRAIN NORTHWESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW                  
HAMPSHIRE SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME WET SNOW. OTHERWISE             
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL BE TOO WARM. OVERALL HAVE INCLUDED MENTION            
OF CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.                                                    
FRIDAY NIGHT...LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE               
EARLY EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT...OTHERWISE THE COLD FRONT           
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OFFSHORE. BEST CHANCE FOR LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW            
SHOWERS SHOULD BE ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS. CONTINUED CHANCE POPS AT             
THIS TIME DURING THE EVENING. MODEL TRENDS HAVE INDICATED A QUICKER             
FROPA SO HAVE SPED UP TIMING BY A FEW HOURS.                                    
SATURDAY...DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED.                         
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SOME DISCREPANCIES DEVELOP BETWEEN THE GFS/UKMET        
AND ECMWF REGARDING THE AMPLITUDE AND POSITIONING OF THE UPPER LEVEL            
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. MODELS ARE IN            
DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WITH THE                   
APPROACHING PACIFIC AND SUBTROPICAL JET MAXIMA...AND THIS RESULTS IN            
SOME PHASING AND TIMING ISSUES FOR SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING            
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE GFS FAVORS MORE OF A DUAL JET                   
STRUCTURE AND WEAKER SECONDARY LOW WHILE THE ECMWF DOES NOT. SO                 
CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW REGARDING THE TIMING OF                         
PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE. GIVEN THE              
LACK OF A STRONG SURFACE HIGH AND COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE AND                
FAIRLY WARM OCEAN TEMPERATURES... PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS WET             
SNOW OR A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN ALONG THE INTERIOR SUNDAY                        
AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN ALONG THE COAST. PRECIPITATION COULD CHANGE TO            
RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT DEPENDING HOW QUICKLY THE             
LOW INTENSIFIES NEAR THE AREA. LINGERING SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE          
POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND THE APPROACH OF THE               
LOWS ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW. AGAIN THIS SCENARIO COULD CHANGE               
GIVEN THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE LOW. OVERALL HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE             
POPS BOTH DAYS.                                                                 
TUESDAY...00Z GFS DEVELOPS ANOTHER LOW OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC            
COAST WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS DRY AND PROGRESSIVE. HAVE LEFT JUST               
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                     
TODAY...VFR CIGS WITH SPOTTY MVFR CIGS ORH AND ALSO IN SCT PCPN.                
USING RUC TSECS FOR TODAYS DEFINITION OF MODELED CIGS. HAVE BEEN                
LOOKING AT THESE FOR SEVERAL SHIFTS AND THESE SEEMS TO DOM A BETTER             
JOB DEFINING CIGS THAN THE MORE DILITED CONSTANT RH LAYERS IN GFS/NAM           
TSECS.                                                                          
TONIGHT...VFR.                                                                  
THURSDAY...VFR IN THE MORNING TRANSITIONING TO MVFR DURING THE                  
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...                                              
FRIDAY...VFR...THEN MVFR LATE WITH DEVELOPING RAIN SHOWERS.                     
SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK.                
OTHERWISE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WITH COLD FROPA AND WINDSHIFT TO WEST.             
SUNDAY...VFR DECREASING TO MVFR THEN AREAS IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY              
DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.           
RAIN DEVELOPS NEAR THE COAST WITH SNOW OR A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN                
DEVELOPING INLAND.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
TODAY...                                                                        
LEFTOVER SWELLS FROM YESTERDAY/S SE GALE. SW WINDS 10-15 KT WITH                
GUSTS TO 20 KT.                                                                 
TONIGHT...                                                                      
SWELLS SLOWLY SUBSIDE BUT REMAIN LARGE ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS. SW              
WINDS 10-15 KT.                                                                 
THU...                                                                          
SW 10-15G20KT CONTINUES. SE SWELLS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BUT SW WIND             
WAVES WILL PERSIST.                                                             
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...                                    
FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY FOR A PORTION OF               
THE COASTAL WATERS. SW WINDS MAY GUST NEAR 25 KT ALONG THE S COAST.             
SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS.                          
SATURDAY...W WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE            
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS MAY BE NECESSARY WITH SEAS 4 TO 6 FT            
ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS.                                                         
SUNDAY...WINDS SHIFTING TO ESE WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT AS LOW                    
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT                  
ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
MA...NONE.                                                                      
NH...NONE.                                                                      
RI...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 PM EST                 
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.                                               
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 AM EST                     
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.                                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/NOCERA/STRAUSS                                                  
NEAR TERM...DRAG                                                                
SHORT TERM...DRAG/NOCERA                                                        
LONG TERM...STRAUSS                                                             
AVIATION...DRAG/NOCERA/STRAUSS 1040                                             
MARINE...DRAG/NOCERA/STRAUSS                                                    
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1145 AM EST WED NOV 26 2008                                                     
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE                                
.SYNOPSIS... (ISSUED AT 430 AM EST)                                             
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A RIDGE TO THE LEE OF                 
ROCKIES WITH DOWNSTREAM TROF FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE NE CONUS WHICH            
FEATURES A MID/UPPER LOW OVER NEW YORK STATE. FLOW HAS SPLIT INTO               
THE W COAST WITH A TROF APPROACHING CA AND A MAIN STREAM SHORTWAVE              
TROF MOVING ONSHORE IN THE PACIFIC NW/WRN CANADA WHERE 12HR 500MB               
HEIGHT FALLS WERE AROUND 90M. IT IS THIS NRN SHORTWAVE THAT WILL                
AFFECT THE WEATHER HERE THANKSGIVING DAY/NIGHT AS IT DROPS SE INTO              
THE MEAN ERN TROF. CLOSER TO HOME...AIRMASS IS NOT REALLY COLD                  
ENOUGH FOR LES IN THE ABSENCE OF SYNOPTIC FORCING (THERE ARE ONLY A             
FEW HINTS OF FLURRIES OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR ON KMQT AND MONTREAL               
RIVER RADARS). 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOWED 850MB TEMPS RANGING ONLY FROM               
-2/-5C AT KINL/CWPL RESPECTIVELY TO -8C AT KGRB/KAPX. LOW INVERSION             
AROUND 920MB/2.6KFT MSL AT KINL/CWPL IS ANOTHER STRONG INHIBITOR FOR            
LES DEVELOPMENT. END RESULT IS A STRATUS/STRATOCU DECK...MAINLY OFF             
CNTRL/ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...AS AIRMASS MOVING OVER THE W LAKE PER 00Z             
KINL SOUNDING IS DRIER.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION... (ISSUED AT 430 AM EST)                                           
QUIET DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY. UPPER LOW OVER NEW               
YORK IS PROGGED TO DRIFT NW TODAY...BUT STILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO              
THE E THAT -SN ON THE NW AND W FRINGE OF SYSTEM WILL REMAIN E OF THE            
FCST AREA. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN 850MB TEMPS OR TEMPS NEAR THE                  
INVERSION BASE (WARMING IF ANYTHING)...LES WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE                 
TODAY. HOWEVER...OVER THE NE FCST AREA...THERE MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES            
OR SPOTTY VERY LIGHT -DZ (-FZDZ IN THE MORNING) AS MOIST LAYER WARMS            
ABOVE -10C...BUT POTENTIAL IS SO LIMITED WILL NOT MENTION. PLENTY OF            
STRATOCU SHOULD REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER INVERSION...MAINLY FROM AROUND             
THE KEWEENAW TO THE E HALF OF UPPER MI UNDER PERSISTENT NWRLY FLOW.             
WITH DRIER AIR FLOWING ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...EXPECT SOME SUN               
OVER THE FAR W AND SW. EVEN OVER THE W WHERE SOME SUN WILL                      
OCCUR...LOW MIXING HEIGHTS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK. IN GENERAL...              
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 30S ACROSS THE BOARD.                                       
TONIGHT...UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TO THE E OF                   
GEORGIAN BAY ALONG ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER AND ANY DEEP LAYER FORCING             
AROUND THE W SIDE OF SYSTEM WILL STILL REMAIN E OF THE FCST AREA.               
LOW-LEVEL TEMP STRUCTURE CHANGES LITTLE THOUGH THE NAM HINTS THAT               
THE MOISTURE DEPTH MAY IMPROVE A BIT OVER THE FAR E AS MOISTURE                 
ADVECTS WWD. THIS WOULD MINIMIZE POTENTIAL OF ANY -DZ/-FZDZ AS                  
MOISTURE WILL EXTEND TO AT LEAST -10C. IN LIGHT OF THE NAM                      
OUTPUT...WILL CARRY A MENTION OF SOME FLURRIES TONIGHT OVER THE ERN             
FCST AREA. EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE ELSEWHERE. BEFORE HIGH/MID            
CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE NW...CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES                
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE TEENS OVER THE W TONIGHT.                   
ON THANKSGIVING DAY...ATTENTION WILL TURN TO SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY                
OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA/WA. IT WILL REACH WI/UPPER MI BY EVENING.                 
THERE ARE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF SHORTWAVE (GFS AT SRN              
END OF GUIDANCE)...BUT MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE POINTS TO THE MAIN                  
STRIPE OF SNOW/DEEP LAYER FORCING STREAKING ACROSS THE FCST AREA THU            
AFTN/EVENING. IT REALLY WON`T BE A SITUATION FOR ISENTROPIC ASCENT              
AIDED PCPN DUE TO LACK OF WAA. SO...THAT WILL BE A MISSING FACTOR TO            
BOOST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. 850MB TEMPS OF -6 TO -8C ACROSS LAKE                  
SUPERIOR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A PERIOD OF SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT               
UNDER W WINDS SHIFTING NWRLY. WITH RESPECTABLE DEEP LAYER FORCING...            
EXPECT A QUICK SHOT OF -SN WITH ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY AROUND 1                
INCH OVER THE FCST AREA. LAKE ENHANCEMENT SHOULD BOOST TOTALS A                 
LITTLE...TO 2 MAYBE 3 INCHES OVER THE NW FCST AREA. LES WILL THEN               
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE THU NIGHT THOUGH 850MB TEMPS               
AREN`T ESPECIALLY LOW...ONLY DROPPING TO -10C. GFS SHOWS A MORE                 
DRAMATIC LOSS OF DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE W WITH SUBSIDENCE/LOWERING              
INVERSION TO 4-5KFT THU NIGHT. WHILE NAM MAINTAINS A MUCH DEEPER                
MOISTURE PROFILE...DOWNWARD MOTION IS DOMINATING THE DENDRITIC SNOW             
GROWTH TEMP ZONE (DGZ). TO THE E...THE GFS MAINTAINS A DEEP MOISTURE            
PROFILE THRU THE NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...BUT UPWARD MOTION IS                  
CONFINED BELOW THE DGZ. WHILE THE GFS IS GENERALLY FAVORED PER HPC              
DISCUSSION...EVEN IF THE NAM IS CORRECT...ITS GUIDANCE DOESN`T FAVOR            
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE LES REGIME BEHIND THE                     
SHORTWAVE THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS MESOSCALE FORCED UPWARD MOTION                  
REMAINS BELOW THE DGZ. THUS...OVERALL...IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE LES                
WILL BE A BIG DEAL. PROBABLY LOOKING AT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 1-2 TO             
MAYBE 3 INCH RANGE OVERNIGHT THU THRU FRI MORNING IN THE NW FLOW                
FAVORED SNOWBELTS. ANOTHER INCH POSSIBLE FRI AFTN...MAINLY E...AS               
DRYING PROGRESSES E INTO THE UPPER LAKES.                                       
BEYOND FRI...PATTERN REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH FCST AREA UNDER THE                
INFLUENCE OF ERN NAMERICA TROF. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE                  
SLIDING SE INTO THE ERN TROF OVER THE WEEKEND THRU AT LEAST THE                 
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AIRMASS WILL GENERALLY BE COLD ENOUGH TO                   
SUPPORT LES WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED PERIODICALLY BY PASSING                      
SHORTWAVES. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY                
SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL OCCUR.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
MVFR CIGS FROM LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW AN INVERSION ARE              
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...THANKS TO             
COOL NW WINDS FLOWING ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY                
FOR SOME SCATTERING OF THE CLOUDS AT CMX LATE THIS AFTN AS DRIER AIR            
OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD MOVES IN. SKIES MAY ALSO CLEAR FOR A               
TIME AT SAW TONIGHT ONCE LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK TO THE NW BRINGING IN             
DRIER AIR. LOW CLOUDS RETURN ON THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF INCOMING              
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SNOW WITH THE SYSTEM SHOULD HOLD OFF TIL                   
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
EASTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF                
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW NEAR LAKE ONTARIO. EXPECT NORTHERLY            
WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...                 
POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 30 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS              
THE LOW BEGINS LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN QUEBEC. ACROSS WESTERN            
LAKE SUPERIOR...THE EFFECTS FROM SFC RIDGING WILL RESULT IN LIGHTER             
WINDS THERE. ON THU...THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS IT                 
CROSSES LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOK FOR A LOW PRESSURE AREA TO FOLLOW IN THE            
WAKE OF THE RIDGE...CROSSING UPPER MICHIGAN THU AFTN. IN ITS                    
WAKE...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL DOMINATE LAKE SUPERIOR            
FOR LATER THU NIGHT INTO FRI. GUSTS COULD REACH 30 KNOTS ON EASTERN             
LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRI. ANOTHER WEAKENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS             
EXPECTED TO CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...ALLOWING WINDS             
TO RELAX BELOW 20 KNOTS. FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...LOW PRESSURE                  
DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN              
WILL CAUSE NORTH WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS ON ALL OF LAKE             
SUPERIOR.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...ROLFSON                                                   
AVIATION...JLA                                                                  
MARINE...AJ                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
622 AM EST WED NOV 26 2008                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE                                
.SYNOPSIS... (ISSUED AT 430 AM EST)                                             
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A RIDGE TO THE LEE OF                 
ROCKIES WITH DOWNSTREAM TROF FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE NE CONUS WHICH            
FEATURES A MID/UPPER LOW OVER NEW YORK STATE. FLOW HAS SPLIT INTO               
THE W COAST WITH A TROF APPROACHING CA AND A MAIN STREAM SHORTWAVE              
TROF MOVING ONSHORE IN THE PACIFIC NW/WRN CANADA WHERE 12HR 500MB               
HEIGHT FALLS WERE AROUND 90M. IT IS THIS NRN SHORTWAVE THAT WILL                
AFFECT THE WEATHER HERE THANKSGIVING DAY/NIGHT AS IT DROPS SE INTO              
THE MEAN ERN TROF. CLOSER TO HOME...AIRMASS IS NOT REALLY COLD                  
ENOUGH FOR LES IN THE ABSENCE OF SYNOPTIC FORCING (THERE ARE ONLY A             
FEW HINTS OF FLURRIES OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR ON KMQT AND MONTREAL               
RIVER RADARS). 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOWED 850MB TEMPS RANGING ONLY FROM               
-2/-5C AT KINL/CWPL RESPECTIVELY TO -8C AT KGRB/KAPX. LOW INVERSION             
AROUND 920MB/2.6KFT MSL AT KINL/CWPL IS ANOTHER STRONG INHIBITOR FOR            
LES DEVELOPMENT. END RESULT IS A STRATUS/STRATOCU DECK...MAINLY OFF             
CNTRL/ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...AS AIRMASS MOVING OVER THE W LAKE PER 00Z             
KINL SOUNDING IS DRIER.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION... (ISSUED AT 430 AM EST)                                           
QUIET DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY. UPPER LOW OVER NEW               
YORK IS PROGGED TO DRIFT NW TODAY...BUT STILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO              
THE E THAT -SN ON THE NW AND W FRINGE OF SYSTEM WILL REMAIN E OF THE            
FCST AREA. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN 850MB TEMPS OR TEMPS NEAR THE                  
INVERSION BASE (WARMING IF ANYTHING)...LES WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE                 
TODAY. HOWEVER...OVER THE NE FCST AREA...THERE MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES            
OR SPOTTY VERY LIGHT -DZ (-FZDZ IN THE MORNING) AS MOIST LAYER WARMS            
ABOVE -10C...BUT POTENTIAL IS SO LIMITED WILL NOT MENTION. PLENTY OF            
STRATOCU SHOULD REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER INVERSION...MAINLY FROM AROUND             
THE KEWEENAW TO THE E HALF OF UPPER MI UNDER PERSISTENT NWRLY FLOW.             
WITH DRIER AIR FLOWING ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...EXPECT SOME SUN               
OVER THE FAR W AND SW. EVEN OVER THE W WHERE SOME SUN WILL                      
OCCUR...LOW MIXING HEIGHTS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK. IN GENERAL...              
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 30S ACROSS THE BOARD.                                       
TONIGHT...UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TO THE E OF                   
GEORGIAN BAY ALONG ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER AND ANY DEEP LAYER FORCING             
AROUND THE W SIDE OF SYSTEM WILL STILL REMAIN E OF THE FCST AREA.               
LOW-LEVEL TEMP STRUCTURE CHANGES LITTLE THOUGH THE NAM HINTS THAT               
THE MOISTURE DEPTH MAY IMPROVE A BIT OVER THE FAR E AS MOISTURE                 
ADVECTS WWD. THIS WOULD MINIMIZE POTENTIAL OF ANY -DZ/-FZDZ AS                  
MOISTURE WILL EXTEND TO AT LEAST -10C. IN LIGHT OF THE NAM                      
OUTPUT...WILL CARRY A MENTION OF SOME FLURRIES TONIGHT OVER THE ERN             
FCST AREA. EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE ELSEWHERE. BEFORE HIGH/MID            
CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE NW...CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES                
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE TEENS OVER THE W TONIGHT.                   
ON THANKSGIVING DAY...ATTENTION WILL TURN TO SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY                
OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA/WA. IT WILL REACH WI/UPPER MI BY EVENING.                 
THERE ARE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF SHORTWAVE (GFS AT SRN              
END OF GUIDANCE)...BUT MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE POINTS TO THE MAIN                  
STRIPE OF SNOW/DEEP LAYER FORCING STREAKING ACROSS THE FCST AREA THU            
AFTN/EVENING. IT REALLY WON`T BE A SITUATION FOR ISENTROPIC ASCENT              
AIDED PCPN DUE TO LACK OF WAA. SO...THAT WILL BE A MISSING FACTOR TO            
BOOST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. 850MB TEMPS OF -6 TO -8C ACROSS LAKE                  
SUPERIOR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A PERIOD OF SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT               
UNDER W WINDS SHIFTING NWRLY. WITH RESPECTABLE DEEP LAYER FORCING...            
EXPECT A QUICK SHOT OF -SN WITH ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY AROUND 1                
INCH OVER THE FCST AREA. LAKE ENHANCEMENT SHOULD BOOST TOTALS A                 
LITTLE...TO 2 MAYBE 3 INCHES OVER THE NW FCST AREA. LES WILL THEN               
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE THU NIGHT THOUGH 850MB TEMPS               
AREN`T ESPECIALLY LOW...ONLY DROPPING TO -10C. GFS SHOWS A MORE                 
DRAMATIC LOSS OF DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE W WITH SUBSIDENCE/LOWERING              
INVERSION TO 4-5KFT THU NIGHT. WHILE NAM MAINTAINS A MUCH DEEPER                
MOISTURE PROFILE...DOWNWARD MOTION IS DOMINATING THE DENDRITIC SNOW             
GROWTH TEMP ZONE (DGZ). TO THE E...THE GFS MAINTAINS A DEEP MOISTURE            
PROFILE THRU THE NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...BUT UPWARD MOTION IS                  
CONFINED BELOW THE DGZ. WHILE THE GFS IS GENERALLY FAVORED PER HPC              
DISCUSSION...EVEN IF THE NAM IS CORRECT...ITS GUIDANCE DOESN`T FAVOR            
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE LES REGIME BEHIND THE                     
SHORTWAVE THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS MESOSCALE FORCED UPWARD MOTION                  
REMAINS BELOW THE DGZ. THUS...OVERALL...IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE LES                
WILL BE A BIG DEAL. PROBABLY LOOKING AT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 1-2 TO             
MAYBE 3 INCH RANGE OVERNIGHT THU THRU FRI MORNING IN THE NW FLOW                
FAVORED SNOWBELTS. ANOTHER INCH POSSIBLE FRI AFTN...MAINLY E...AS               
DRYING PROGRESSES E INTO THE UPPER LAKES.                                       
BEYOND FRI...PATTERN REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH FCST AREA UNDER THE                
INFLUENCE OF ERN NAMERICA TROF. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE                  
SLIDING SE INTO THE ERN TROF OVER THE WEEKEND THRU AT LEAST THE                 
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AIRMASS WILL GENERALLY BE COLD ENOUGH TO                   
SUPPORT LES WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED PERIODICALLY BY PASSING                      
SHORTWAVES. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY                
SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL OCCUR.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
MVFR CIGS FROM LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW AN INVERSION ARE              
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...THANKS TO             
NW WINDS CONTINUING A COOL AIR FLOW BELOW THE INVERSION GENERATING              
PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR SOME                  
SCATTERING OF THE CLOUDS AT CMX LATE THIS AFTN AS A BRIEF SURGE OF              
DRIER AIR MOVES IN. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT SKIES COULD BRIEFLY                
SCATTER OUT AT KSAW AROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW                 
RIGHT NOW TO MENTION.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
EASTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF                
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW NEAR LAKE ONTARIO. EXPECT NORTHERLY            
WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...                 
POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 30 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS              
THE LOW BEGINS LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN QUEBEC. ACROSS WESTERN            
LAKE SUPERIOR...THE EFFECTS FROM SFC RIDGING WILL RESULT IN LIGHTER             
WINDS THERE. ON THU...THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS IT                 
CROSSES LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOK FOR A LOW PRESSURE AREA TO FOLLOW IN THE            
WAKE OF THE RIDGE...CROSSING UPPER MICHIGAN THU AFTN. IN ITS                    
WAKE...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL DOMINATE LAKE SUPERIOR            
FOR LATER THU NIGHT INTO FRI. GUSTS COULD REACH 30 KNOTS ON EASTERN             
LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRI. ANOTHER WEAKENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS             
EXPECTED TO CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...ALLOWING WINDS             
TO RELAX BELOW 20 KNOTS. FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...LOW PRESSURE                  
DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN              
WILL CAUSE NORTH WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS ON ALL OF LAKE             
SUPERIOR.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...ROLFSON                                                   
AVIATION...AJ                                                                   
MARINE...AJ                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM                                         
325 AM MST WED NOV 26 2008                                                      
...WINTER WILL MAKE AN APPEARANCE ACROSS NEW MEXICO ON THURSDAY...              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC80 ANALYSIS HAS AN UPPER LOW MOVING              
INTO SRN CALIFORNIA. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND              
STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE AS IT TRAVERSES THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MAIN             
FORECAST CHALLENGE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR              
AND ITS IMPACT ON SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. BUT FIRST...ONE LAST TRANQUIL             
WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS NEW MEXICO. HOLIDAY TRAVELLERS WILL              
EXPERIENCE FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH HIGHS             
REMAINING ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN POOR             
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND CONTINUED TO SIDE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF             
THE TEMPERATURE ENVELOPE OVER THE WRN/CENTRAL ZONES BASED ON WEAK               
MIXING. THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW            
IS CURRENTLY INVADING SRN CALIFORNIA...PROVIDING WIDESPREAD MODERATE            
TO HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS WAVE WILL MIGRATE THROUGH SRN NV INTO NORTH             
CENTRAL AZ BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS SHOULD MOISTEN UP THE COLUMN TO             
OUR WEST. THE NEXT NOTABLE VORT MAX OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD             
TRACK NORTHEAST WED NIGHT AND INVADE NM DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.             
PLENTY OF MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE...THEREFORE A             
WIDESPREAD PCPN EVENT IS LIKELY OVER THE WRN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE            
FORECAST AREA. AS MENTIONED THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...MODELS HAVE BEEN            
TRENDING WARMER AND WARMER...LIKELY DUE TO AN UNDERESTIMATE OF WARM             
AIR ADVECTION. MEANWHILE...THE MAIN LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD CORE            
ALOFT WILL WORK TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY THU AFTERNOON. AS            
MOISTURE/PCPN INTERACTS WITH THE COOLER AIR...SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER            
OVER THE NRN HIGH TERRAIN. TO COMPLICATE MATTERS...A SURFACE FRONT              
WILL TAKE RESIDENCE IN THE NE PLAINS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MUCH             
COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE...WITH FALLING TEMPS LIKELY. MANY            
LOCALES IN THE NE MAY EXPERIENCE HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 18Z. RAIN             
WILL CHANGE TO SNOW IN THIS REGION BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND MAY             
PLAY A FACTOR IN ACCUMULATING THU EVENING. CONTEMPLATED MANY OPTIONS            
WITH RESPECT TO HEADLINES AND OPTED TO PLAY THE CONSERVATIVE ROUTE...           
WHICH IS TO ALERT HOLIDAY TRAVELLERS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SLIPPERY              
ROAD CONDITIONS. FEEL THAT NMZ002 IS A SLAM DUNK FOR ADVISORY TYPE              
SNOWFALL...WITH CONFIDENCE FAIRLY HIGH FOR NMZ004...ESPECIALLY OVER             
THE HIGHEST PEAKS. SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY BE FAIRLY HIGH INITIALLY             
AND LOWER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. ACCUMULATING LEVEL COULD BE 1000 OR            
1500 FEET HIGHER THAN SNOW LEVEL. WILL HOIST AN ADVISORY FOR THE                
15Z/THU THROUGH 12Z/FRI PERIOD FOR THESE ZONES. MODERATE CONFIDENCE             
EXISTS WITH RESPECT NE PLAINS SOUTHWARD TO ABOUT A GLORIETA PASS TO             
CLAYTON LINE. GENERALLY UP TO ONE INCH ON GRASSY SURFACES MAY OCCUR             
EAST OF INTERSTATE 25...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST.             
WILL LET DAY CREW EVALUATE THESE ZONES AS FRONTAL TIMING AND WHETHER            
PCPN WILL BE JUXTAPOSED WITH COLD AIR WILL BE A CRUCIAL FACTOR.                 
TRANSITION PERIOD IS EXPECTED ON FRI AS ONE WEAKENING SYSTEM SHIFTS             
EAST AND ANOTHER UPR LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.           
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS ARE EXPECTED IN THE REGION...HIGHEST OVER            
THE NRN/WRN MTS. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE             
WEEKEND FORECAST...BUT HAVE DECENT SPREAD WITHIN THE ENSEMBLE HEIGHT            
FIELDS. ATTM...IT APPEARS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIG INTO             
A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SRN BAJA...TOO FAR TO IMPACT NM. HOWEVER...UPR            
LEVEL N/NW FLOW COULD KEEP THE ERN PLAINS RELATIVELY ACTIVE. EVENING            
SHIFT MAINTAINED ISOLATED POPS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS SEEMS              
REASONABLE. DPORTER                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT MOST AIRPORTS NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER ABOUT              
07Z THU ACROSS FAR WESTERN NM NEAR AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE AND FROM              
THE CHUSKA MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD...THIS INCLUDING KGUP...CIGS WILL                
LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR AND LOCALLY IFR RANGE AS TOP DOWN MOISTENING               
INCREASES AND FIRST OF THE PCPN BEGINS IN THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE NO             
AVIATION WEATHER HAZARDS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST              
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.                   
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 22Z. 43                                  
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
TODAY A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS NM WILL PRODUCE LIGHT                 
TRANSPORT WINDS AND WEAK MIXING...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD POOR TO               
FAIR VENTILATION. MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM                       
APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOME               
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER NEW MEXICO TODAY FOLLOWED BY                   
INCREASING TOP DOWN MOISTENING TONIGHT THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS...                
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGH TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARRIVING                   
WESTERN QUARTER TO THIRD OF THE STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.                   
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL NM THANKSGIVING DAY            
AS A COLD FRONT HEADS SOUTH AND WEST W ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND            
THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NORTHWEST NM. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS                 
LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS AND THE HIGHER PEAKS OF WEST CENTRAL            
NM. MEASURABLE TO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE                
REST OF NORTH...CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS...THOUGH BEHIND THE                
COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS INTO PORTIONS OF THE FAR                
NORTHEAST PLAINS SOME LOWER TERRAIN SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATER            
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT              
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WILL AVERAGE ONE TO THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH WITH            
SOMEWHERE IN THE RANGE OF FOUR TO EIGHT TENTHS OF AN INCH IN THE                
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHWEST MTNS.                                           
VENTILATION WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY INTO FRIDAY AS STRONGER NORTHWEST             
TRANSPORT WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. THE POTENTIAL FOR             
A SECOND SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM AFFECTING THE STATE BETWEEN                 
SATURDAY AND MONDAY NOW APPEARS TO BE LESS SO THE CHANCE OF                     
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL THEN IS LOWER. 43                                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
FARMINGTON......................  57  35  49  32 /   5  30  70  50              
GALLUP..........................  56  34  44  30 /  10  50  80  40              
GRANTS..........................  61  32  46  29 /   5  20  90  30              
GLENWOOD........................  63  40  53  32 /  20  50  80  20              
CHAMA...........................  54  25  39  23 /   0  10  90  80              
LOS ALAMOS......................  59  32  45  28 /   0   5  80  60              
RED RIVER.......................  50  24  39  19 /   0   5  80  70              
TAOS............................  58  24  45  24 /   0   0  70  60              
SANTA FE........................  57  31  46  25 /   0   0  80  60              
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  58  35  47  30 /   0   0  80  50              
ESPANOLA........................  62  30  48  31 /   0   0  80  60              
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  60  42  53  35 /   0   5  80  30              
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  62  38  54  33 /   0   5  80  30              
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  61  41  53  34 /   0   5  80  40              
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  61  40  52  35 /   0   5  80  30              
SOCORRO.........................  64  38  57  33 /   0   5  70  10              
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  57  34  45  24 /   0   5  80  40              
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  63  32  51  26 /   0   5  80  50              
CARRIZOZO.......................  65  39  56  32 /   0   5  60  20              
RUIDOSO.........................  59  38  49  29 /   0   5  60  10              
RATON...........................  65  26  46  24 /   0   0  40  60              
LAS VEGAS.......................  63  32  45  22 /   0   0  50  60              
ROY.............................  62  33  46  25 /   0   0  40  60              
CLAYTON.........................  65  31  46  26 /   0   0  20  60              
SANTA ROSA......................  68  39  55  32 /   0   0  50  30              
TUCUMCARI.......................  68  35  55  31 /   0   0  30  40              
FORT SUMNER.....................  70  38  59  33 /   0   0  40  20              
CLOVIS..........................  69  39  57  33 /   0   0  30  20              
PORTALES........................  69  35  58  32 /   0   0  30  20              
ROSWELL.........................  71  42  67  38 /   0   0  30  10              
&&                                                                              
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 5 AM MST FRIDAY FOR               
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ002-004.                                               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
46/43                                                                           
</pre> nm                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
1000 AM CST WED NOV 26 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
TEMPS TO THE NORTH OF SFC FRONT CONT TO STRUGGLE TO WARM AS FAST AS             
CURRENT FORECAST. WILL GO AHEAD AND LOWER HIGH TEMPS ACROSS MUCH OF             
THE AREA BASED ON TRENDS AND LATEST RUC. IT IS HARD TO SEE TEMPS IN             
THE 60S WITH CAA CONT THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY... ALBEIT WEAK CAA.              
UPDATES ON THEIR WAY.                                                           
30                                                                              
----------------------------------------                                        
551 AM CST WED NOV 26 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...MAIN CHALLENGE IS THE TIMING OF A WIND SHIFT. NORTH WINDS           
HAD DEVELOPED DOWN TO OKC AND HBR TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. USED                     
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND RUC TO TIME THE FRONT THROUGH OUN-LAW-                 
SPS. WIND SPEEDS LIGHT...THOUGH...EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF                  
12-14 KNOT WINDS AT CSM-HBR...WHERE MODEST COLD ADVECTION WILL AID              
MIXING THROUGH MIDDAY.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM CST WED NOV 26 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST IS DRY...WE DO             
EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED RAIN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND THE                
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS UNUSUALLY DIFFICULT. THE CURRENT WEATHER                
PATTERN IS VERY CHALLENGING GIVEN THE FOLLOWING: SEVERAL FAST MOVING            
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN              
STREAM OF THE UPPER JET...AND INCONSISTENCIES AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS.            
THIS MORNING WE CHOSE TO PIECE TOGETHER A FORECAST THAT USES SIGNALS            
FROM SEVERAL MODELS WHEN/WHERE THEY MATCH OBSERVATIONS AND PATTERN              
RECOGNITION.                                                                    
THE GFS AND NAM LOOK GOOD THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK FRONTAL                
BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED NEAR I-44 THIS MORNING...AND WILL DRIFT INTO               
THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. INEXPLICABLY...THE MOS GUIDANCE            
KEEPS TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S WELL NORTH OF THE FRONT DESPITE             
NORTH WINDS IN NOVEMBER. NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS LOWER 60S...SO WE               
LOADED THE NAM12 SFC TEMPS INTO THE GRIDDED FORECAST...AND THIS                 
LOOKED REASONABLE. THE MOS COMES AROUND AND DOES A LITTLE BETTER JOB            
ON THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH THE FRONT STALLED TO OUR SOUTH...AND                 
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S WITHIN THE NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME.            
HIGH CLOUDS MAY INCREASE CONSIDERABLY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT LOW                 
LEVEL MOISTURE STILL APPEARS TO BE DEFLECTED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE              
REGION BY PERSISTENT MID LEVEL WESTERLIES ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE.               
THIS LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAKES THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST                
DIFFICULT. AT LEAST WE ARE CONFIDENT THAT THE ONSET SHOULD NOT TAKE             
PLACE UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING...BUT IT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO GAUGE               
HOW WIDESPREAD THE RAIN WILL BE. MODELS ARE INDICATING GREATER                  
HEIGHT FALLS AND LIFT COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT QPF APPEARS IN            
BANDS RATHER THAN A BROAD SWATH. INSPECTION SHOWS THE BANDED PRECIP             
IS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTOGENESIS AT DIFFERENT HEIGHTS...ALONG WITH              
FORECAST SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOW SOME INSTABILITY AT MID LEVELS. THIS              
SHOULD GENERATE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS                 
THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE AT THE                
SAME TIME...SUCH THAT DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS WILL CAUSE SOME                     
EVAPORATION. THIS COULD LESSEN THE RAINFALL WHILE ALSO ENHANCING THE            
POST-FRONTAL WINDS. WE INCREASED POPS IN LINE WITH THE GFS MOS...BUT            
ALSO TRIED TO SHOW LOCALLY HIGHER CHANCES WITHIN THE BANDED                     
STRUCTURES OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND ALONG THE RED RIVER.                    
BY FRIDAY...RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF IN THE SOUTHEAST...AND COLD HIGH              
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 40S AND             
50S. NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP...BUT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN              
HANDLING WAVES WITHIN THE FLOW...AND HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL SLIDE               
DOWN THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE PATTERN IN THE OPERATIONAL GFS LOOKS               
REASONABLE...BUT THAT MODEL HAS TENDED TO MOVES SHORT WAVES TOO                 
QUICKLY...AND IS TAPPING UNUSUALLY COLD AIR...CONSIDERING THAT THE              
SOURCE REGION IS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES...AND THAT AIR USUALLY                
SLIDES TO OUR EAST. WE ADJUSTED THE MOS TOWARD NUMBERS FROM THE GFS             
ENSEMBLE MEAN...WHICH IS NOT QUITE AS COLD. THE PERIOD OF REAL                  
INTEREST...THOUGH OUT AT DAY 8...NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THE              
ENSEMBLE AND THE ECMWF HAVE CONSISTENTLY INDICATED THAT A SHOT OF               
ARCTIC AIR WILL COME AT US FROM A MORE FAVORABLE TRAJECTORY OUT OF              
WESTERN CANADA. STAY TUNED.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  62  36  61  37 /   0   0  10  30                              
HOBART OK         64  34  60  36 /   0   0  20  30                              
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  38  65  39 /   0   0  10  50                              
GAGE OK           61  28  54  30 /   0   0  20  40                              
PONCA CITY OK     61  32  59  33 /   0   0  10  30                              
DURANT OK         74  41  68  40 /   0   0  10  40                              
&&                                                                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
24/22/22                                                                        
BURKE                                                                           
</pre> ok                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
551 AM CST WED NOV 26 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...MAIN CHALLENGE IS THE TIMING OF A WIND SHIFT. NORTH WINDS           
HAD DEVELOPED DOWN TO OKC AND HBR TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. USED                     
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND RUC TO TIME THE FRONT THROUGH OUN-LAW-                 
SPS. WIND SPEEDS LIGHT...THOUGH...EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF                  
12-14 KNOT WINDS AT CSM-HBR...WHERE MODEST COLD ADVECTION WILL AID              
MIXING THROUGH MIDDAY.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM CST WED NOV 26 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST IS DRY...WE DO             
EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED RAIN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND THE                
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS UNUSUALLY DIFFICULT. THE CURRENT WEATHER                
PATTERN IS VERY CHALLENGING GIVEN THE FOLLOWING: SEVERAL FAST MOVING            
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN              
STREAM OF THE UPPER JET...AND INCONSISTENCIES AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS.            
THIS MORNING WE CHOSE TO PIECE TOGETHER A FORECAST THAT USES SIGNALS            
FROM SEVERAL MODELS WHEN/WHERE THEY MATCH OBSERVATIONS AND PATTERN              
RECOGNITION.                                                                    
THE GFS AND NAM LOOK GOOD THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK FRONTAL                
BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED NEAR I-44 THIS MORNING...AND WILL DRIFT INTO               
THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. INEXPLICABLY...THE MOS GUIDANCE            
KEEPS TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S WELL NORTH OF THE FRONT DESPITE             
NORTH WINDS IN NOVEMBER. NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS LOWER 60S...SO WE               
LOADED THE NAM12 SFC TEMPS INTO THE GRIDDED FORECAST...AND THIS                 
LOOKED REASONABLE. THE MOS COMES AROUND AND DOES A LITTLE BETTER JOB            
ON THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH THE FRONT STALLED TO OUR SOUTH...AND                 
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S WITHIN THE NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME.            
HIGH CLOUDS MAY INCREASE CONSIDERABLY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT LOW                 
LEVEL MOISTURE STILL APPEARS TO BE DEFLECTED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE              
REGION BY PERSISTENT MID LEVEL WESTERLIES ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE.               
THIS LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAKES THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST                
DIFFICULT. AT LEAST WE ARE CONFIDENT THAT THE ONSET SHOULD NOT TAKE             
PLACE UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING...BUT IT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO GAUGE               
HOW WIDESPREAD THE RAIN WILL BE. MODELS ARE INDICATING GREATER                  
HEIGHT FALLS AND LIFT COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT QPF APPEARS IN            
BANDS RATHER THAN A BROAD SWATH. INSPECTION SHOWS THE BANDED PRECIP             
IS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTOGENESIS AT DIFFERENT HEIGHTS...ALONG WITH              
FORECAST SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOW SOME INSTABILITY AT MID LEVELS. THIS              
SHOULD GENERATE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS                 
THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE AT THE                
SAME TIME...SUCH THAT DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS WILL CAUSE SOME                     
EVAPORATION. THIS COULD LESSEN THE RAINFALL WHILE ALSO ENHANCING THE            
POST-FRONTAL WINDS. WE INCREASED POPS IN LINE WITH THE GFS MOS...BUT            
ALSO TRIED TO SHOW LOCALLY HIGHER CHANCES WITHIN THE BANDED                     
STRUCTURES OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND ALONG THE RED RIVER.                    
BY FRIDAY...RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF IN THE SOUTHEAST...AND COLD HIGH              
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 40S AND             
50S. NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP...BUT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN              
HANDLING WAVES WITHIN THE FLOW...AND HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL SLIDE               
DOWN THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE PATTERN IN THE OPERATIONAL GFS LOOKS               
REASONABLE...BUT THAT MODEL HAS TENDED TO MOVES SHORT WAVES TOO                 
QUICKLY...AND IS TAPPING UNUSUALLY COLD AIR...CONSIDERING THAT THE              
SOURCE REGION IS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES...AND THAT AIR USUALLY                
SLIDES TO OUR EAST. WE ADJUSTED THE MOS TOWARD NUMBERS FROM THE GFS             
ENSEMBLE MEAN...WHICH IS NOT QUITE AS COLD. THE PERIOD OF REAL                  
INTEREST...THOUGH OUT AT DAY 8...NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THE              
ENSEMBLE AND THE ECMWF HAVE CONSISTENTLY INDICATED THAT A SHOT OF               
ARCTIC AIR WILL COME AT US FROM A MORE FAVORABLE TRAJECTORY OUT OF              
WESTERN CANADA. STAY TUNED.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  62  36  61  37 /   0   0  10  30                              
HOBART OK         64  34  60  36 /   0   0  20  30                              
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  38  65  39 /   0   0  10  50                              
GAGE OK           61  28  54  30 /   0   0  20  40                              
PONCA CITY OK     61  32  59  33 /   0   0  10  30                              
DURANT OK         74  41  68  40 /   0   0  10  40                              
&&                                                                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
24/22/22                                                                        
BURKE                                                                           
</pre> ok                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME                                             
316 PM EST WED NOV 26 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
THE POWERFUL STORM AFFECTING MAINE WILL BEGIN TO EXIT THE AREA                  
OVERNIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON                   
THANKSGIVING. A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO APPROACH                 
FRIDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY SATURDAY...BRINGING MOSTLY TO              
SNOW TO NORTHERN AREAS AND RAIN AND SNOW DOWNEAST. AFTER FAIR AND               
COLDER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...YET ANOTHER LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE               
OF SNOW AND RAIN TO THE REGION ON MONDAY.                                       
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                                
MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE TIMING OF PRECIP AND FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT.              
A BLEND OF THE RUC AND CARWRF WAS USED TO START OUT AND THEN RAN W/A            
BLEND OF THE GFS AND SREF AFT 06Z INTO THANKSGIVING DAY FOR THE POP             
FIELDS. LATEST RADAR MOSAIC HADD PRECIP MOVING NORTHWARD AND                    
SWINGING BACK TO THE W ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES THIS EVENING.              
THE RUC AND CARWRF HANDLED THIS PRECIP WELL AS IT EXITS INTO NEW                
BRUNSWICK AFT 00Z. PRECIP TYPE A BIT TRICKY AS TEMPERATURES WILL                
BE RIGHT ON THE CUSP OF THE RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION. THINKING HERE IS              
THAT AREAS BACK TO NWRN AROOSTOOK COUNTY AND PLACES LIKE                        
STOCKHOLM...NEW SWEDEN AND PORTAGE COULD SEE A BRIEF CHANGE OVER                
TO SNOW BEFORE IT ENDS. LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWED UPPER LOW PUSHING E              
AND COOLING FROM 850-700MBS ALREADY TAKING PLACE AND THIS IS                    
PICKED WELL BY THE RUC AND CARWRF W/THE POTENTIAL FOR A CHANGE TO               
SOME SNOW IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. ANY NOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL               
BE LESS THAN AN INCH.                                                           
LATEST SATL IMAGERY SHOWS BEST ENHANCEMENT RIGHT OVER THE EASTERN               
3RD OF THE CWA W/CLEARING TAKING PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST            
SECTIONS. THIS CLEARING LINE IS PUSHING N AND THE EXPECTATION IS                
THAT SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR AS FAR NORTH AS CARIBOU AND PRESQUE.              
NOW...THIS CLEARING AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT PLUS SOME LLVL COOLING             
COULD LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AND STRATUS LATER TONIGHT ESP                
W/WET GROUND. DECIDED TO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF FOG FOR ALL AREAS.              
PREV FCST TEMPS LOOKED REAL GOOD W/THIS COOLING TREND. ONLY SLIGHT              
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WHICH POINTS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS GOING DOWN TO              
THE MID AND UPPER 20S. ANOTHER CONCERN IS BLACK ICE DEVELOPMENT THIS            
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED               
FOR THIS POTENTIAL.                                                             
FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF LLVL RH FROM              
925-850MBS AND THIS MATCHES UP WELL W/12Z UA FROM TODAY. UPPER LEVEL            
LOW EXPECTED TO SPIN ACROSS THE QUEBEC PROVING W/A MID AND UPPER                
LEVEL TROF TO SWING ACROSS THE REGION. SOME FORCING NOTED TO ALLOW              
FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS ESP ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTHWESTERN AREAS.               
THE GFS/SREF POPS LOOKED GOOD FOR THIS FEATURE W/30-40% POPS WEST               
AND NORTH AND 15-20%(ISOLATED) FOR THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. GMOS                  
TEMPERATURES WERE USED SHOWING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                
UPPER LEVEL TROF IS EXPECTED TO BE POSITIONED OVER THE STATE AT                 
THE BEGINNING OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN SNOW                 
SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER               
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ALONG WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH                
FROM THE WEST AND CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL CROSS               
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY EVENING THEN MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST                 
SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTH AS THIS SYSTEM                 
MOVES THROUGH. IN SOUTHERN AREAS SNOW SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE              
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PASS                  
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY BRINGING MORE SNOW SHOWERS. FOR POPS                 
AND SKY COVER HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40. HAVE USED               
OFFICE SNOW TOOL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BASED ON THE GFS. FOR                   
TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT AND WIND HAVE USED GMOS. USED A BLEND OF                
GFS AND NAM FOR QPF.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                
MODELS IN THE LONGER RANGE ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND                
TRACK OF THE NEXT LOW PRES SYSTEM TO AFFECT OUR FA ERLY NEXT WEEK.              
IN THIS SCENARIO...DRY AND COLDER WX SAT NGT THRU SUN WILL BE                   
FOLLOWED UP INCREASING CLDS SUN NGT AS MOISTURE AHEAD OF A LARGE                
COMPLEX S/WV SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE MIDWEST APCHS OUR FA. THIS                 
SYSTEM IN THE UPPER AIR APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE ONE                 
THAT AFFECTED OUR FA THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH ONE IMPORTANT               
DIFFERENCE...A MUCH WEAKER BLOCKING FACTOR IN THE N ATLC.                       
SUBSEQUENTLY...THE OVRRNG BAND OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE                    
SYSTEM WILL NOT BE IMPEDED FROM MOVING NWRD ACROSS THE FA                       
BEGINNING VERY LATE SUN NGT AND CONTG INTO MON. PRECIP TYPE WILL                
BE TRICKY...WITH THE OPNL 12Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z GFSENS MEAN BOTH                
HINTING AT MORE SECONDARY LOW PRES ALG THE CNTRL NEW ENG COAST                  
THAN THE OPNL 12Z GFS. HOWEVER...EVEN THE ERLY TRACKING SFC LOW                 
MODELS INDICATE A CERTAIN AMOUNT OF CAPTURING OF THE SECONDARY SFC              
LOW MON AFT BY A DEVELPOING CLOSED 700 TO 500 MB VORTEX OVR THE                 
ERN GREAT LKS. THIS WOULD BRING THE TRIPLE POINT INTO DOWNEAST                  
AREAS NE TO ALG THE NERN ME/WRN NB BORDER. FOR NOW...WE WILL                    
MENTION MSLY SN FOR NRN AND WRN PTNS OF THE FA...AND SN                         
TRANSITIONING TO SN/RN OR ALL RN DOWNEAST BY MON AFT. GIVEN TIMING              
UNCERTAINTIES AND COLLABORATING THRESHOLDS WITH OUR NEIGHBORING                 
OFFICE...FROM THIS POINT OUT IN THE FCST...IT WAS HARD TO JUSTIFY               
ABV HI CHC POPS ATTM...BUT THIS COULD END UP BEING A SHORT                      
DURATION SIGNIFICANT PRECIP-WIND EVENT.                                         
FOLLOWING THE WARM ADVCN PRECIP BAND...MOST MODELS INDICATE SOME                
MID LVL DRY SLOTTING LATE MON INTO MON EVE BEFORE WHATS LEFT OF                 
THE UPPER LOW FROM THE GREAT LKS TARCKS JUST N OF THE FA LATE MON               
NGT INTO TUE. THIS WOULD LIMIT MOST CLDS AND SN SHWRS TO NRN/WRN                
PTNS OF THE FA. OTHERWISE...SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER CONDITIONS WILL                
ARRIVE BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW TUE...WITH SOME MODERATION WED.                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                     
NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES TONIGHT W/THE                 
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH                 
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE MVFR CONDITIONS WHILE KBGR AND KBHB WILL              
SEE VFR FOR THANKSGIVING.                                                       
SHORT TERM: EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS                 
EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES                   
ACROSS THE STATE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.                  
MVFR/IFR MONDAY IN RAIN AND SNOW.                                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NEAR TERM: DECIDED ON SCA FOR SEAS TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING DAY                
W/SWELL INCLUDED. SEAS 10-11 FT ATTM ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE                    
TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND RIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.               
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN 10-15 KT W/A 50-50 BLEND OF THE                      
NAM12/GFS.                                                                      
SHORT TERM: HAVE USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR WIND              
GRIDS. WILL INCREASE WIND SPEED SLIGHTLY WITH SEA SURFACE                       
TEMPERATURE A LITTLE WARMER THAN AIR TEMPERATURE. FOR WAVES: HAVE               
USED WNA/4. WAVE HEIGHTS LOOK REASONABLE...HOWEVER WILL MANUALLY                
ADJUST INTRA-COASTAL ZONE.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ME...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM EST                 
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.                                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NEAR TERM...HEWITT                                                              
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE                                                            
LONG TERM...VJN                                                                 
AVIATION...HEWITT                                                               
MARINE...HEWITT/MIGNONE                                                         
</pre> me                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
217 PM EST WED NOV 26 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THIS AFTERNOON              
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE SPINS OVER EASTERN CANADA              
THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATER                   
FRIDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES OVER THE              
WEEKEND.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
LATE MORNING ANALYSIS DEPICTS SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN               
CONUS...WITH A STRONG NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED AREA OF LOW                     
PRESSURE OVER SW QUEBEC. THIS FEATURE IS ALLOWING FOR DRY DEEP                  
LAYER W/NW FLOW OVER THE MID-ATL.                                               
CYCLONIC FLOW CONTS TDA AS UPR LVL LOW SLOWLY SPINS NORTHWARD TWDS              
HUDSON BAY. ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO GRIDS ATTM IS TO ALLOW FOR               
INCREASE IN CLOUD CVR OVER PIEDMONT IN ASSN WITH SCT-BKN MID-HI CLDS            
(5-8 KFT). RUC/NAM DOING PRETTY WELL WITH THESE CLDS THUS FAR THIS              
AM...AND SHOWS DRIER AIR FILTERING IN THIS AFTN AND DIMINISHING                 
ANY LINGERING CLDS BY MID-AFTN. SO...TRIED TO MANIPULATE DIGITAL                
GRIDS TO REFLECT GRADUAL DECREASE IN CLDS THIS AFTN. OTW...DOWNSLOPING          
WND FLOW WL ALLOW FOR A PLEASANT AFTN ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST                 
TEMPS GENLY ON TRACK...U40S/NR50 N TO L50S S.                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
FLAT H5 RIDGE WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW BUILDS INTO RGN TONIGHT THRU               
THU NITE. LOWS TONITE U20S-L30S. TURKEY DAY LOOKING RTHR PLEASANT               
UNDER A MSTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGHS M-U50S. TSCTNS SHOW SOME CLOUDS MOVG             
INTO RGN LATE THU NITE AHEAD OF APPRCHG CDFRNT. LOWS GNRLY IN THE               
30S. DRY FRNTL BNDRY CROSSES RGN FRI. MILD WITH HIGHS 55-60.                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...A PATTERN OF WEST               
COAST RIDGE AND EASTERN CANADA LOW CONTINUES IN THE EXTENDED WITH               
VARIOUS SHORT WAVES AFFECTING THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. CONFIDENCE               
IN MODELS NOT SUFFICIENT TO INCLUDE MORE THAN 20 PERCENT POPS AT                
THIS TIME. STARTING SAT NIGHT...LEANED TOWARD EURO WHICH BRINGS A               
COLD FRONT TO THE AREA SUN NIGHT WITH A COLD UPPER LOW BY MONDAY                
AND INDICATED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THEN. NEW GFS INDICATES A STRONG               
WEATHER SYSTEM WITH A DEEP SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM THE TENNESSEE                
VALLEY TO MOVING INTO PENNSYLVANIA LATE SUN AND MON. WITH EITHER                
SCENARIO...TEMPERATURES MAY BE BORDERLINE FOR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW               
SHOWERS BUT ONLY INCLUDED RAIN SHOWERS AT THIS POINT. ANY                       
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH A SYSTEM LIKE THIS ONE LATE SUN AND                  
MON WOULD BE LIGHT. HPC INDICATES A FAST MOVING FRONT WHICH WILL                
CROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MON WILL APPROACH OUR AREA BY WED.                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                     
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND OBSERVATIONS WERE USED TO FORECAST FOR MAINLY SCT           
CLOUD LAYERS TODAY. INDICATIONS ARE FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES LATE                 
TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z THU. WINDS SHOULD STAY GENERALLY 12 KNOTS OR                
LESS.                                                                           
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH THU NIGHT. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH              
A SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE THROUGH FRI                 
AFTN/EVENING WHICH SHOULD COME THORUGH DRY. AT THIS POINT. AN AREA              
OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL BRING A SLIGHT                  
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA FRI                  
NIGHT AND SAT. LOWER CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW              
PRESSURE SYSTEM BY LATE SUN OR MON.                                             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
SCA HAS EXPIRED OVER THE BAY WATERS AS WIND GRADIENT HAS SUBSIDED               
UNDER CRITERIA. CALMER CONDS THEN EXPECTED ALL WTRS LATER TDY INTO              
ERLY FRI...AS THE CNTR OF HI PRES BLDS BY JUST TO OUR S THEN OFF                
THE SE CST. A COLD FRNT WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRI AFTN INTO FRI                  
EVENG...BUT SCA CONDS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HI PRES WILL RETURN FOR                 
LATER FRI NGT THRU AT LEAST SAT.                                                
&&                                                                              
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...MAM                                                                  
NEAR TERM...MAM/MPR                                                             
SHORT TERM...MPR                                                                
LONG TERM...LSA                                                                 
AVIATION...LSA                                                                  
MARINE...CCW/TMG                                                                
</pre> md                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
1130 AM CST WED NOV 26 2008                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ONLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED OVER THE AVIATION SITES OVER THE              
24 HOURS. THIS MORNING/S WIND SHIFT HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH ALL               
OF THE AREA TAF SITES BRINGING THE NORTHERLY WINDS. THE NEXT FRONT              
WILL MOVE THROUGH KGAG AND KWWR BEFORE 18Z THURSDAY INCREASING THE              
SPEED OF THE NORTH WINDS SOMEWHAT.                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST WED NOV 26 2008/                        
UPDATE...                                                                       
TEMPS TO THE NORTH OF SFC FRONT CONT TO STRUGGLE TO WARM AS FAST AS             
CURRENT FORECAST. WILL GO AHEAD AND LOWER HIGH TEMPS ACROSS MUCH OF             
THE AREA BASED ON TRENDS AND LATEST RUC. IT IS HARD TO SEE TEMPS IN             
THE 60S WITH CAA CONT THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY... ALBEIT WEAK CAA.              
UPDATES ON THEIR WAY.                                                           
30                                                                              
----------------------------------------                                        
551 AM CST WED NOV 26 2008                                                      
AVIATION...MAIN CHALLENGE IS THE TIMING OF A WIND SHIFT. NORTH WINDS            
HAD DEVELOPED DOWN TO OKC AND HBR TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. USED                     
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND RUC TO TIME THE FRONT THROUGH OUN-LAW-                 
SPS. WIND SPEEDS LIGHT...THOUGH...EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF                  
12-14 KNOT WINDS AT CSM-HBR...WHERE MODEST COLD ADVECTION WILL AID              
MIXING THROUGH MIDDAY.                                                          
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM CST WED NOV 26 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST IS DRY...WE DO             
EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED RAIN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND THE                
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS UNUSUALLY DIFFICULT. THE CURRENT WEATHER                
PATTERN IS VERY CHALLENGING GIVEN THE FOLLOWING: SEVERAL FAST MOVING            
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN              
STREAM OF THE UPPER JET...AND INCONSISTENCIES AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS.            
THIS MORNING WE CHOSE TO PIECE TOGETHER A FORECAST THAT USES SIGNALS            
FROM SEVERAL MODELS WHEN/WHERE THEY MATCH OBSERVATIONS AND PATTERN              
RECOGNITION.                                                                    
THE GFS AND NAM LOOK GOOD THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK FRONTAL                
BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED NEAR I-44 THIS MORNING...AND WILL DRIFT INTO               
THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. INEXPLICABLY...THE MOS GUIDANCE            
KEEPS TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S WELL NORTH OF THE FRONT DESPITE             
NORTH WINDS IN NOVEMBER. NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS LOWER 60S...SO WE               
LOADED THE NAM12 SFC TEMPS INTO THE GRIDDED FORECAST...AND THIS                 
LOOKED REASONABLE. THE MOS COMES AROUND AND DOES A LITTLE BETTER JOB            
ON THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH THE FRONT STALLED TO OUR SOUTH...AND                 
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S WITHIN THE NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME.            
HIGH CLOUDS MAY INCREASE CONSIDERABLY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT LOW                 
LEVEL MOISTURE STILL APPEARS TO BE DEFLECTED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE              
REGION BY PERSISTENT MID LEVEL WESTERLIES ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE.               
THIS LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAKES THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST                
DIFFICULT. AT LEAST WE ARE CONFIDENT THAT THE ONSET SHOULD NOT TAKE             
PLACE UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING...BUT IT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO GAUGE               
HOW WIDESPREAD THE RAIN WILL BE. MODELS ARE INDICATING GREATER                  
HEIGHT FALLS AND LIFT COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT QPF APPEARS IN            
BANDS RATHER THAN A BROAD SWATH. INSPECTION SHOWS THE BANDED PRECIP             
IS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTOGENESIS AT DIFFERENT HEIGHTS...ALONG WITH              
FORECAST SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOW SOME INSTABILITY AT MID LEVELS. THIS              
SHOULD GENERATE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS                 
THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE AT THE                
SAME TIME...SUCH THAT DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS WILL CAUSE SOME                     
EVAPORATION. THIS COULD LESSEN THE RAINFALL WHILE ALSO ENHANCING THE            
POST-FRONTAL WINDS. WE INCREASED POPS IN LINE WITH THE GFS MOS...BUT            
ALSO TRIED TO SHOW LOCALLY HIGHER CHANCES WITHIN THE BANDED                     
STRUCTURES OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND ALONG THE RED RIVER.                    
BY FRIDAY...RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF IN THE SOUTHEAST...AND COLD HIGH              
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 40S AND             
50S. NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP...BUT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN              
HANDLING WAVES WITHIN THE FLOW...AND HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL SLIDE               
DOWN THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE PATTERN IN THE OPERATIONAL GFS LOOKS               
REASONABLE...BUT THAT MODEL HAS TENDED TO MOVES SHORT WAVES TOO                 
QUICKLY...AND IS TAPPING UNUSUALLY COLD AIR...CONSIDERING THAT THE              
SOURCE REGION IS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES...AND THAT AIR USUALLY                
SLIDES TO OUR EAST. WE ADJUSTED THE MOS TOWARD NUMBERS FROM THE GFS             
ENSEMBLE MEAN...WHICH IS NOT QUITE AS COLD. THE PERIOD OF REAL                  
INTEREST...THOUGH OUT AT DAY 8...NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THE              
ENSEMBLE AND THE ECMWF HAVE CONSISTENTLY INDICATED THAT A SHOT OF               
ARCTIC AIR WILL COME AT US FROM A MORE FAVORABLE TRAJECTORY OUT OF              
WESTERN CANADA. STAY TUNED.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  60  36  61  37 /   0   0  10  30                              
HOBART OK         64  34  60  36 /   0   0  20  30                              
WICHITA FALLS TX  65  38  65  39 /   0   0  10  50                              
GAGE OK           62  28  54  30 /   0   0  20  40                              
PONCA CITY OK     61  32  59  33 /   0   0  10  30                              
DURANT OK         71  41  68  40 /   0   0  10  40                              
&&                                                                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
01/01/01                                                                        
</pre> ok                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
1143 AM CST WED NOV 26 2008                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VFR PREVAILING AT             
METROPLEX SITES. SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE AT KACT WILL RESULT IN A              
CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS FROM 10-14Z. CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO                       
DISAGREEMENTS IN THE MODELS ON HOW FAR NORTHWEST BETTER MOISTURE                
WILL MAKE IT INTO NORTH TEXAS. HAVE GONE WITH JUST A TEMPO GROUP                
ATTM. OTHERWISE RUC/NAM FORECASTS DEPICT SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON                
AT METROPLEX SITES...BECOMING VERY LIGHT NW THIS EVENING AND                    
OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE TRACON.                                
92                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...                                                                      
1125 AM                                                                         
WILL LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY ACROSS THE AREA. THICKER                
CLOUDS HAVE LIMITED THE WARMING A BIT.    84                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 350 AM CST WED NOV 26 2008/                                            
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS DEVELOPING FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS                 
WITH A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH NORTH TEXAS...            
BUT A DRY FORECAST WILL ACCOMPANY THESE FRONTS EXCEPT FOR THE                   
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY TIME FRAME.                                            
BUT BEFORE THEN...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...SOUTHWEST WINDS...AND A                 
WARMER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN TODAY WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY WARM DAY                
WITH TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HAVE GONE SEVERAL                 
DEGREES ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR TODAY GIVEN THE CONDITIONS                       
MENTIONED ABOVE AND EXPECTED BREAKS IN THE CIRRUS CLOUDS LATER                  
TODAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF                
NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING BUT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY NORTH                
OF INTERSTATE 20 TONIGHT WITH LITTLE IMPACTS/EFFECTS EXPECTED.                  
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD DROP INTO                
THE LOWER 40S WHILE LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL BE WARM WITH              
VALUES IN THE 50S AND UPPER 40S.                                                
UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL                 
MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA FRIDAY MORNING AND WITH THIS SLOWER                          
SOLUTION...HAVE REMOVED MOST POPS FOR THURSDAY AND WARMED                       
TEMPERATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL                
CONTINUE OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AND WARM              
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AGAIN.                                                       
AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES WEST TEXAS ON THURSDAY                     
NIGHT...TRUE COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE SOUTH ARRIVING IN NORTH TEXAS                
ON THURSDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...FIRST IN                 
WEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS AND THEN MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS FROM WEST               
TO EAST. BEST TIMING FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE FROM MIDNIGHT TO SUNRISE              
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE                  
RAIN IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME BUT THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS                  
THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ALONG AND SOUTH OF                     
INTERSTATE 20. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS KEEPS ME                     
FROM TRYING TO BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH POPS AT THIS TIME EXCEPT TO                 
SHOW A TREND FROM WEST TO EAST. PRECIPITATION WILL END ON FRIDAY                
MORNING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION.                     
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDES ACROSS OKLAHOMA...IT WILL BE                      
ABSORBED BY A DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS                     
TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT                    
TUESDAY...LEAVING DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER NORTH TEXAS IN                    
THE EXTENDED. AT THIS TIME...CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE                          
ECMWF AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS WHICH KEEP THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE               
TROUGH EAST OF NORTH TEXAS...UNLIKE THE GFS WHICH BROADENS THE                  
TROUGH OVER NORTH TEXAS AND PULLS ADDITIONAL ENERGY ACROSS NORTH                
TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. WITH THIS ENERGY...IT TRIES TO DEVELOP                      
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY BUT ALL OTHER MODELS SUGGEST A               
DRY FORECAST.                                                                   
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ANOTHER FOUR FRONTS               
WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS BETWEEN SATURDAY AND WEDNESDAY. EACH              
FRONT WILL HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD NEAR                
OR BELOW NORMAL VALUES. MOISTURE RETURN WILL NOT HAVE TIME TO                   
ESTABLISH BETWEEN EACH FRONT AND WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THE            
FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED LOOKS DRY.  82/JLD                                     
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  73  48  72  44  57 /   0   5  10  50  20                  
WACO, TX              72  52  74  48  58 /   0   5  20  50  30                  
PARIS, TX             70  44  69  43  57 /   0   5  10  50  30                  
DENTON, TX            73  41  72  42  59 /   0   5  10  50  20                  
MCKINNEY, TX          71  43  71  42  58 /   0   5  10  50  20                  
DALLAS, TX            73  51  74  46  58 /   0   5  10  50  20                  
TERRELL, TX           71  48  72  46  57 /   0   5  10  50  30                  
CORSICANA, TX         71  53  72  47  59 /   0   5  10  50  30                  
TEMPLE, TX            74  54  75  49  59 /   0   5  20  50  30                  
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
92/84                                                                           
</pre> tx