WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION                          
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL                                    
835 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR STLT AND RUC LOCATES UPPER RIDGING OVER THE ATLANTIC      
THAT REACHES BACK ACROSS FL WHILE MSAS SHOWS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING      
NORTH OF THE AREA. STLT AND MTR INDICATE LOW CLOUDS PERSIST ALONG WITH          
SOME FOG...PATCHY OVER THE COAST BUT SLIGHTLY DENSER INLAND. WILL               
WAIT 1-2 HRS TO ALLOW THE FOG AND CLOUDS TO CLEAR AND THEN UPDATE               
THE ZONES TO PARTLY CLOUDY FOR REST OF TODAY. TEMPS AND WINDS LOOK OK.          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...BUOY/SHIP/COASTAL OBS...RAOB...AND SURF REPORT SUPPORT                
THE ONGOING FORECAST OF ~10 OR 10-15KT WITH SEAS 2 OR 2-3FT AND A               
LIGHT CHOP FOR TODAY. NEXT ISSUANCE OUT AROUND 10 AM WITH LITTLE                
CHANGE.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GULF WATERS...NONE.                                                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RKR/09                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1040 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2006                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM IN THE                   
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH PRECIP SPREADING AS FAR NORTHEAST AS              
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.  RADAR MOSAIC/SURFACE OBS INDICATE LIGHT RAIN                
FALLING ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY AND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF                         
ILLINOIS...BUT STILL WELL SOUTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR.  SIGNIFICANTLY            
DRIER ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS IS PREVENTING                 
PRECIP FROM RAPIDLY SPREADING NORTH TOWARD THE AREA.  BASED ON AREA             
RADAR LOOPS AND 12Z NAM/RUC QPF FIELDS...IT APPEARS PRECIP WILL                 
REACH THE FAR SOUTHEAST KILX CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON.  NAM HAS BACKED             
OFF ON THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE PRECIP...AND BASED ON CURRENT                
TRENDS THIS LOOKS REASONABLE.  HAVE UPDATED POP GRIDS TO DROP PRECIP            
CHANCES NORTH OF I-70...WHILE GOING WITH LIKELY POPS SOUTH OF I-70              
BY 21Z.  WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND E/NE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPS               
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RESPOND THIS MORNING...WITH 16Z READINGS RANGING              
FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST...TO THE UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST.  WILL                
TWEAK AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REFLECT A TIGHTER TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS THE             
CWA...WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S ACROSS MOST AREAS AND LOWER 40S                  
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
AREAS OF DENSE FREEZING FOG WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE CWA THIS                   
MORNING.  MEANWHILE... DEVELOPING SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTHEAST WILL                  
SPREAD PRECIP NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON.  QUESTION IS... JUST HOW FAR            
NORTH DOES IT GO.  LONGER RANGE SHOWS CONTINUED MILD TEMPS THROUGH              
THE PERIOD... EXCEPT FOR A POSSIBLE BRIEF LAPSE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.           
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...                                           
DENSE FOG ADVY HEADLINE ISSUED EARLY THIS MORNING GOES THROUGH 10               
AM... MAINLY FOR NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE CWA... ROUGHLY BOUNDED BY               
I-74 AND I-55.  MAIN CONCERN HERE IS FOR THE BLOOMINGTON AREA WHERE             
SLIGHT UPSLOPE EXISTS... IN THE PEORIA AREA ALONG THE RIVER... AND              
FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE SNOWPACK REGIONS.  WEAK WAA OVER                       
SNOWPACK... WITH SOME MELTING ADDING TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE             
KEPT STRATUS DECK IN OVER THE WESTERN CWA YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT.              
HOWEVER... SATELLITE OBS INDICATE THAT AS STRATUS DECK HAS BEEN                 
LIFTING NORTHWARD... VSBYS IN FZFG QUICKLY DROP.                                
STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH TEXAS THIS MORNING WILL SHEAR                   
RAPIDLY EASTWARD TODAY... ALLOWING WEAK SFC WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG               
BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH STRETCHES FROM TEXAS TO ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER             
VALLEY.  BROAD SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG                
SHARPENING BAROCLINIC ZONE AND SFC STATIONARY FRONT.  MAIN QUESTION             
BECOMES HOW FAR NORTH PRECIP MAKES IT.                                          
GUIDANCE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON KEEPING MAIN BAND OF PRECIP ACROSS                
TENNESSEE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING... INVOF SFC                     
STATIONARY FRONT.  HOWEVER... 12KM ETA ALSO INDICATES SECONDARY BAND            
OF PRECIP DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS BY 00Z IN                    
RESPONSE TO STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND ENHANCED ISENTROPIC                
LIFT.  EARLIER RUNS OF THE ETA BROUGHT PRECIP SHIELD RATHER FAR                 
NORTH... HOWEVER 06Z RUN HAS BACKED OFF ON THIS.                                
WHILE ENTIRE REGION REMAINS IN RRQ OF 150KT JET... SUGGESTING BROAD             
LIFT... ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES BEST FORCING PARAMETERS WILL BE                  
FOCUSED SOUTH OF I-70... ALONG WITH VERY SHARP LOW/MID LEVEL                    
MOISTURE GRADIENT... SUGGESTING RAZOR SHARP CUTOFF TO PRECIP                    
SHIELD.  PRECIP EVEN SOUTH OF I-70 WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME PLENTY OF              
LOW AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR. FARTHER NORTH... LACK OF SUSTAINED LIFT              
AND CHOKINGLY DRY AIR SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT PRECIP THREAT.                       
FAIRLY WARM BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY A RAIN EVENT...              
PERHAPS ENDING AS A BIT OF SNOW.  HOWEVER... PRECIP SHOULD PULL OUT             
RATHER QUICKLY... SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT... REDUCING ANY SNOW OR MIX            
PRECIP POTENTIAL.                                                               
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ON MONDAY... WITH TEMPS REMAINING             
IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.                                                 
TUESDAY... A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM LOOKS TO REINFORCE LONG WAVE            
TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND/EASTERN CANADA ON TUESDAY.  ETA HAS BEEN                
DOWNPLAYING THIS EVENT... INDICATING A WEAKER SHORTWAVE DROPPING                
INTO A LESS AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE.  THE RESULT IS THE BULK OF THE                  
DYNAMICS WITH THE SYSTEM REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH IN THIS SCENARIO.             
OPERATIONAL GFS IS A BIT MORE VIGOROUS... WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE             
SLIDING FARTHER SOUTH.  OTHER AVAILABLE GUIDANCE (UKMET/MM5) LEANS              
TOWARDS ITS FAVOR... AS WELL AS MOST GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.  ALSO                
NEED TO CONSIDER ETA PERFORMANCE THIS WINTER BEYOND THE 24-36 HR                
TIME FRAME HAS BEEN SOMETHING SHORT OF SPECTACULAR.                             
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A GLANCING BLOW OF COOLER AIR... AND PERHAPS             
SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.                                 
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...                                       
BEYOND TUESDAY... RIDGING BUILDS IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES            
ONCE AGAIN... BRINING MILDER TEMPS.                                             
SOME QUESTIONS STILL REVOLVE AROUND CUTOFF LOW OVER THE                         
DESERT SOUTHWEST MIDWEEK.  KICKER TROUGH APPROACHES LATE IN THE                 
WEEK... WITH CUTOFF REMNANTS MOVING TOWARDS THE MIDWEST BY FRIDAY.              
I DO NOT HAVE MUCH TRUST IN HOW GUIDANCE HANDLES SOUTHWESTERN                   
CUTOFFS... ESPECIALLY THIS FAR IN FUTURE.  POSITION OF CUTOFF                   
MIDWEEK WILL PLAY A ROLE IN WHERE IT GOES AS KICKER TROUGH                      
APPROACHES.  GFS HAS BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE... TAKING THE CUTOFF               
SOUTH OF US ONE RUN... THEN ACROSS US THE NEXT.  GFS MAY BE KEEPING             
CUTOFF SYSTEM IN TACT TOO LONG... RATHER THAN SHEARING THE SYSTEM               
OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING PACIFIC SYSTEM.                                    
ECMWF OFFERS A MORE SHEARED OUT SOLUTION... WITH CUTOFF REMNANTS                
PASSING MORE TOWARDS OUR NORTH... AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN DEEP                
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE DIGGING PACIFIC TROUGH.                         
CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG RANGE IS AS USUAL... RATHER LOW.  FOR NOW                
WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY WITH JUST INCREASING CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED                
WITH CUTOFF SHEARING OUT TO OUR NORTHWEST.  BETTER PRECIP THREAT                
WILL COME WITH PACIFIC SYSTEM... CONSIDERING UNCLEAR TIMING ON THIS             
SYSTEM... WILL GO WITH JUST A 20 POP FOR NOW.                                   
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BARNES/HARDIMAN                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
120 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WE ARE SENDING ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST             
KANSAS. IT APPEARS LIKE OUR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING CUT OFF FROM            
THE CONVECTION IN OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.                                        
COX                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2006/                        
AVIATION...                                                                     
WE ARE GOING TO SEND OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE                               
THE CLOUD COVER FOR CENTRAL KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND                      
EVENING. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY IS SHOWING THE STRATUS DECK OVER                
NEBRASKA IS NOW STALLING AND MIXING OUT. AS A RESULT...CENTRAL                  
KANSAS SHOULD SEE FULL SUN THIS AFTERNOON. WE HAVE ALSO TAKEN OUT               
THE LOW CEILINGS IN THE TAFS.                                                   
COX                                                                             
&&                                                                              
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2006/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE LOW CLOUD                   
POTENTIAL MOVING INTO CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND THE LACK OF             
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS.                                      
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT MOVING                   
THROUGH AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. IT ALSO LOOKS              
LIKE THE JET STREAK/BAROCLINIC LEAF THAT WAS SUPPOSE TO PLAY A ROLE             
IN BRINGING SOME LIFT INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH LOW             
LEVEL MOISTURE TO BRING ANY RAIN. LATEST UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS FROM               
SGF AND TOP SHOWING THAT POCKET OF DRY AIR VERY WELL BELOW 700MB. AS            
A RESULT...WE ARE UNABLE TO SATURATE THE LOW LAYERS. LATEST                     
PROFILERS ARE ALSO SHOWING THE 700MB FLOW TURNING TO THE WEST ACROSS            
THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...WHICH WILL START                  
BRINGING DRY AIR INTO THE MID LEVELS. FOR NOW...WE HAVE REDUCED POPS            
CONSIDERABLY FOR COLLABORATION PURPOSES...BUT I AM NOT OPTIMISTIC               
THAT WE WILL SEE ANYTHING MORE THAN SPRINKLES IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS.              
THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN...APPEARS TO BE IN THE DROUGHT STRICKEN                 
REGION OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.                                
COX                                                                             
&&                                                                              
AVIATION...                                                                     
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A LOW IFR STRATUS DECK PUSHING                
SOUTH TOWARDS THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER. THIS LAYER OF CLOUDS IS               
NOT BEING RESOLVED BY THE SHORT TERM MODELS VERY WELL AT ALL...WHICH            
IS PRETTY TYPICAL. BASED ON THE CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS I WOULD                
EXPECT THESE LOW CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO RUSSELL AND SALINA BETWEEN 22              
AND 24Z. CURRENT FORECASTED TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN THE BALL                 
PARK.                                                                           
COX                                                                             
&&                                                                              
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1032 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2006/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE LOW CLOUD                   
POTENTIAL MOVING INTO CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND THE LACK OF             
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS.                                      
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT MOVING                   
THROUGH AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. IT ALSO LOOKS              
LIKE THE JET STREAK/BAROCLINIC LEAF THAT WAS SUPPOSE TO PLAY A ROLE             
IN BRINGING SOME LIFT INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH LOW             
LEVEL MOISTURE TO BRING ANY RAIN. LATEST UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS FROM               
SGF AND TOP SHOWING THAT POCKET OF DRY AIR VERY WELL BELOW 700MB. AS            
A RESULT...WE ARE UNABLE TO SATURATE THE LOW LAYERS. LATEST                     
PROFILERS ARE ALSO SHOWING THE 700MB FLOW TURNING TO THE WEST ACROSS            
THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...WHICH WILL START                  
BRINGING DRY AIR INTO THE MID LEVELS. FOR NOW...WE HAVE REDUCED POPS            
CONSIDERABLY FOR COLLABORATION PURPOSES...BUT I AM NOT OPTIMISTIC               
THAT WE WILL SEE ANYTHING MORE THAN SPRINKLES IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS.              
THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN...APPEARS TO BE IN THE DROUGHT STRICKEN                 
REGION OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.                                
COX                                                                             
&&                                                                              
AVIATION...                                                                     
ATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A LOW IFR STRATUS DECK PUSHING                 
SOUTH TOWARDS THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER. THIS LAYER OF CLOUDS IS               
NOT BEING RESOLVED BY THE SHORT TERM MODELS VERY WELL AT ALL...WHICH            
IS PRETTY TYPICAL. BASED ON THE CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS I WOULD                
EXPECT THESE LOW CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO RUSSELL AND SALINA BETWEEN 22              
AND 24Z. CURRENT FORECASTED TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN THE BALL                 
PARK.                                                                           
COX                                                                             
&&                                                                              
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2006/                          
SYNOPSIS...                                                                     
DATA ANALYSIS SHOWS A BAROCLINIC LEAF CLOUD RIGHT OVER THE REGION.              
THIS WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR TODAY. CONVECTION HAS                   
DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA...TEXAS...AND AREAS EAST WHILE                  
LIGHT RAIN HAS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN                   
TEXAS. KTLX RADAR SHOWING SOME PRETTY REASONABLE RETURNS THIS                   
MORNING. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE                   
FORECAST AREA.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
TODAY:                                                                          
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS ASCERTAINING PRECIPITATION                             
CHANCES/TYPE/AMOUNT FROM TODAYS SYSTEM. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS                  
MEDIUM.                                                                         
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE BAROCLINIC LEAF VERY WELL.               
DARKENING ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF                  
THE INFLECTION POINT WILL BE FURTHER WEST THAN FORECAST BY THE                  
MODELS. I BELIEVE THIS IS ALREADY MANIFESTING ITSELF IN THE                     
OBSERVED PRECIPITATION FURTHER WEST THAN ANY OF THE CURRENT MODEL               
FORECASTS SUGGEST.                                                              
THE NAM/RUC SOLUTIONS REMAIN THE FURTHEST WEST...HOWEVER THE 06Z                
RUNS CONTINUE TO TREND SOUTHEAST. STILL THINK PRECIPITATION                     
CHANCES WEST OF THIS IS A GOOD BET AT THIS POINT GIVEN CURRENT ACTIVITY.        
REGARDING THE TYPE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS USING A TOP DOWN APPROACH               
SUGGEST AN ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN CONDUCIVE TO SNOW...WITH ONLY THE                 
SURFACE LAYER PREVENTING THIS /IT CHANGES IT OVER TO RAIN WITH                  
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S/. HOWEVER...IF IT PRECIPITATES HARD               
ENOUGH...THE RAIN WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW FROM LATENT HEAT              
BE ABSORBED DUE TO MELTING...COOLING THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURE AT                 
THE SURFACE. THIS IS THE MOST DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST AT THIS            
JUNCTURE. KEPT A RAIN/SNOW MIX.                                                 
REGARDING TEMPERATURES...DID NOT FOLLOW THE TYPICAL DIURNAL CURVE               
GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING DURING THE                 
MORNING. SOUTHEAST KANSAS SHOULD SEE MORNING HIGHS...THEN                       
TEMPERATURES FALLING DUE TO DIABATIC COOLING FROM THE                           
PRECIPITATION MOVING IN.                                                        
THURSDAY-FRIDAY:                                                                
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM HERE IS DETERMINING THE TIMING OF THIS                    
SYSTEM.  CONFIDENCE HERE IS RATHER LOW.                                         
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME WITH                  
CONSISTENTLY TIMING THIS SYSTEM. GFS/DGEX SOLUTION SLOWS IT DOWN                
THIS RUN. THINK THIS IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE SINCE THIS SYSTEM IS                
MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF A SHIFT IN THE UPPER                
LEVEL FLOW REGIME. THIS SCENARIO TYPICALLY RESULTS IN MODELS                    
FORECASTING SYSTEM EVOLUTIONS TOO FAST. THEREFORE...BELIEVE                     
INTRODUCING PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO FRIDAY PERTINENT HERE.                   
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD                
AS THERE IS NO INDICATION OF A FLOW TRAJECTORY FROM THE ARCTIC                  
THAT WOULD BRING DOWN COLD AIR.                                                 
KRC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                 
WICHITA-KICT    46  25  49  27 /  30   0   0   0                                
HUTCHINSON      46  23  48  26 /  20   0   0   0                                
NEWTON          46  25  48  27 /  20   0   0   0                                
ELDORADO        46  25  48  27 /  30   0   0   0                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   47  26  50  27 /  30   0   0   0                                
RUSSELL         45  20  48  24 /  10   0   0   0                                
GREAT BEND      45  20  48  25 /  10   0   0   0                                
SALINA          45  22  48  26 /  20   0   0   0                                
MCPHERSON       46  23  48  26 /  20   0   0   0                                
COFFEYVILLE     47  26  49  28 /  40   0   0   0                                
CHANUTE         47  25  48  28 /  30   0   0   0                                
IOLA            46  25  48  28 /  30   0   0   0                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
1250 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2006                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WE ARE GOING TO SEND OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE                               
THE CLOUD COVER FOR CENTRAL KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND                      
EVENING. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY IS SHOWING THE STRATUS DECK OVER                
NEBRASKA IS NOW STALLING AND MIXING OUT. AS A RESULT...CENTRAL                  
KANSAS SHOULD SEE FULL SUN THIS AFTERNOON. WE HAVE ALSO TAKEN OUT               
THE LOW CEILINGS IN THE TAFS.                                                   
COX                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2006/                        
UPDATE...                                                                       
MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE LOW CLOUD                   
POTENTIAL MOVING INTO CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND THE LACK OF             
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS.                                      
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT MOVING                   
THROUGH AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. IT ALSO LOOKS              
LIKE THE JET STREAK/BAROCLINIC LEAF THAT WAS SUPPOSE TO PLAY A ROLE             
IN BRINGING SOME LIFT INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH LOW             
LEVEL MOISTURE TO BRING ANY RAIN. LATEST UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS FROM               
SGF AND TOP SHOWING THAT POCKET OF DRY AIR VERY WELL BELOW 700MB. AS            
A RESULT...WE ARE UNABLE TO SATURATE THE LOW LAYERS. LATEST                     
PROFILERS ARE ALSO SHOWING THE 700MB FLOW TURNING TO THE WEST ACROSS            
THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...WHICH WILL START                  
BRINGING DRY AIR INTO THE MID LEVELS. FOR NOW...WE HAVE REDUCED POPS            
CONSIDERABLY FOR COLLABORATION PURPOSES...BUT I AM NOT OPTIMISTIC               
THAT WE WILL SEE ANYTHING MORE THAN SPRINKLES IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS.              
THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN...APPEARS TO BE IN THE DROUGHT STRICKEN                 
REGION OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.                                
COX                                                                             
&&                                                                              
AVIATION...                                                                     
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A LOW IFR STRATUS DECK PUSHING                
SOUTH TOWARDS THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER. THIS LAYER OF CLOUDS IS               
NOT BEING RESOLVED BY THE SHORT TERM MODELS VERY WELL AT ALL...WHICH            
IS PRETTY TYPICAL. BASED ON THE CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS I WOULD                
EXPECT THESE LOW CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO RUSSELL AND SALINA BETWEEN 22              
AND 24Z. CURRENT FORECASTED TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN THE BALL                 
PARK.                                                                           
COX                                                                             
&&                                                                              
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1032 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2006/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE LOW CLOUD                   
POTENTIAL MOVING INTO CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND THE LACK OF             
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS.                                      
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT MOVING                   
THROUGH AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. IT ALSO LOOKS              
LIKE THE JET STREAK/BAROCLINIC LEAF THAT WAS SUPPOSE TO PLAY A ROLE             
IN BRINGING SOME LIFT INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH LOW             
LEVEL MOISTURE TO BRING ANY RAIN. LATEST UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS FROM               
SGF AND TOP SHOWING THAT POCKET OF DRY AIR VERY WELL BELOW 700MB. AS            
A RESULT...WE ARE UNABLE TO SATURATE THE LOW LAYERS. LATEST                     
PROFILERS ARE ALSO SHOWING THE 700MB FLOW TURNING TO THE WEST ACROSS            
THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...WHICH WILL START                  
BRINGING DRY AIR INTO THE MID LEVELS. FOR NOW...WE HAVE REDUCED POPS            
CONSIDERABLY FOR COLLABORATION PURPOSES...BUT I AM NOT OPTIMISTIC               
THAT WE WILL SEE ANYTHING MORE THAN SPRINKLES IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS.              
THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN...APPEARS TO BE IN THE DROUGHT STRICKEN                 
REGION OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.                                
COX                                                                             
&&                                                                              
AVIATION...                                                                     
ATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A LOW IFR STRATUS DECK PUSHING                 
SOUTH TOWARDS THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER. THIS LAYER OF CLOUDS IS               
NOT BEING RESOLVED BY THE SHORT TERM MODELS VERY WELL AT ALL...WHICH            
IS PRETTY TYPICAL. BASED ON THE CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS I WOULD                
EXPECT THESE LOW CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO RUSSELL AND SALINA BETWEEN 22              
AND 24Z. CURRENT FORECASTED TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN THE BALL                 
PARK.                                                                           
COX                                                                             
&&                                                                              
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2006/                          
SYNOPSIS...                                                                     
DATA ANALYSIS SHOWS A BAROCLINIC LEAF CLOUD RIGHT OVER THE REGION.              
THIS WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR TODAY. CONVECTION HAS                   
DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA...TEXAS...AND AREAS EAST WHILE                  
LIGHT RAIN HAS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN                   
TEXAS. KTLX RADAR SHOWING SOME PRETTY REASONABLE RETURNS THIS                   
MORNING. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE                   
FORECAST AREA.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
TODAY:                                                                          
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS ASCERTAINING PRECIPITATION                             
CHANCES/TYPE/AMOUNT FROM TODAYS SYSTEM. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS                  
MEDIUM.                                                                         
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE BAROCLINIC LEAF VERY WELL.               
DARKENING ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF                  
THE INFLECTION POINT WILL BE FURTHER WEST THAN FORECAST BY THE                  
MODELS. I BELIEVE THIS IS ALREADY MANIFESTING ITSELF IN THE                     
OBSERVED PRECIPITATION FURTHER WEST THAN ANY OF THE CURRENT MODEL               
FORECASTS SUGGEST.                                                              
THE NAM/RUC SOLUTIONS REMAIN THE FURTHEST WEST...HOWEVER THE 06Z                
RUNS CONTINUE TO TREND SOUTHEAST. STILL THINK PRECIPITATION                     
CHANCES WEST OF THIS IS A GOOD BET AT THIS POINT GIVEN CURRENT ACTIVITY.        
REGARDING THE TYPE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS USING A TOP DOWN APPROACH               
SUGGEST AN ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN CONDUCIVE TO SNOW...WITH ONLY THE                 
SURFACE LAYER PREVENTING THIS /IT CHANGES IT OVER TO RAIN WITH                  
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S/. HOWEVER...IF IT PRECIPITATES HARD               
ENOUGH...THE RAIN WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW FROM LATENT HEAT              
BE ABSORBED DUE TO MELTING...COOLING THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURE AT                 
THE SURFACE. THIS IS THE MOST DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST AT THIS            
JUNCTURE. KEPT A RAIN/SNOW MIX.                                                 
REGARDING TEMPERATURES...DID NOT FOLLOW THE TYPICAL DIURNAL CURVE               
GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING DURING THE                 
MORNING. SOUTHEAST KANSAS SHOULD SEE MORNING HIGHS...THEN                       
TEMPERATURES FALLING DUE TO DIABATIC COOLING FROM THE                           
PRECIPITATION MOVING IN.                                                        
THURSDAY-FRIDAY:                                                                
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM HERE IS DETERMINING THE TIMING OF THIS                    
SYSTEM.  CONFIDENCE HERE IS RATHER LOW.                                         
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME WITH                  
CONSISTENTLY TIMING THIS SYSTEM. GFS/DGEX SOLUTION SLOWS IT DOWN                
THIS RUN. THINK THIS IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE SINCE THIS SYSTEM IS                
MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF A SHIFT IN THE UPPER                
LEVEL FLOW REGIME. THIS SCENARIO TYPICALLY RESULTS IN MODELS                    
FORECASTING SYSTEM EVOLUTIONS TOO FAST. THEREFORE...BELIEVE                     
INTRODUCING PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO FRIDAY PERTINENT HERE.                   
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD                
AS THERE IS NO INDICATION OF A FLOW TRAJECTORY FROM THE ARCTIC                  
THAT WOULD BRING DOWN COLD AIR.                                                 
KRC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                 
WICHITA-KICT    46  25  49  27 /  30   0   0   0                                
HUTCHINSON      46  23  48  26 /  20   0   0   0                                
NEWTON          46  25  48  27 /  20   0   0   0                                
ELDORADO        46  25  48  27 /  30   0   0   0                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   47  26  50  27 /  30   0   0   0                                
RUSSELL         45  20  48  24 /  10   0   0   0                                
GREAT BEND      45  20  48  25 /  10   0   0   0                                
SALINA          45  22  48  26 /  20   0   0   0                                
MCPHERSON       46  23  48  26 /  20   0   0   0                                
COFFEYVILLE     47  26  49  28 /  40   0   0   0                                
CHANUTE         47  25  48  28 /  30   0   0   0                                
IOLA            46  25  48  28 /  30   0   0   0                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
1030 AM MST SUN JAN 22 2006                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CURRENT FORECAST CONCERN IS AREA OF STRATUS SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS                
NEBRASKA. NAM/GFS SEEM TO BE RATHER CLUELESS TO THIS AREA OF                    
CLOUDS...AND THE RUC ONLY SLIGHTLY PICKING UP ON IT. SEEMS BEST TIED            
TO AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ON 280/285K SFC'S WHICH WOULD POINT TO               
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD FORMATION ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. WILL             
GO AHEAD AND UP CLOUD COVER IN THIS AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON...BUT                
WONT BE TO AGGRESSIVE ON THE WESTERN PUSH OF CLOUDS AS DIRECTION OF             
THE FLOW AND FORCING DONT FAVOR MUCH OF A WESTWARD PUSH. THE CLOUDS             
WILL ALSO HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPS...AS TEMPS UNDERNEATH THE             
CLOUD COVER HAVE LEVELED OFF AND ARE CLIMBING VERY SLOWLY. THINK                
THAT CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW...SO HIGH TEMPS WILL BE REACHED IN            
THE NEXT TWO HOURS BEFORE LEVELING OFF AND DROPPING SLIGHTLY. THE               
NET RESULT WILL BE TO LOWER HIGHS A FEW DEGREES IN THE NORTHEAST.               
REST OF THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AS HRLY TEMPS PRETTY            
MUCH RIGHT ON TARGET EVERYWHERE.                                                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER WAVE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN                  
PLAINS TO THE FOUR CORNERS RGN. THIS WAVE WL PUSH TO THE GRT LAKES              
RGN TNT. GFS...ETA AND EC ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH BUILDING HIGH            
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.                                
TEMPS CONT TO BE MAIN CONCERN TODAY AND INTO MID WEEK. SFC COLD                 
FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO THE ERN PORTION OF THE CWA RESULTING IN WINDS             
SHIFTING TO THE NW. WL KEEP TEMPS THIS AFT SLIGHTLY BLO GUIDANCE                
ESPECIALLY IN SNOW COVERED AREAS DUE TO WEAK CAA BEHIND THIS FRONT              
AND INCREASING HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE DAY.                         
TEMPS WL WARM DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WITH WSTRY DOWNSLOPE            
FLOW. GENERALLY FOLLOWED SLIGHTLY COOLER MET GUIDANCE.                          
DAYS 4-7 LOOK TO BE IN FINE SHAPE AND THUS DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES.            
PATTERN INDICATES DRY AND MILD WX WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. NEXT             
SYSTEM PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF THE BAJA REGION WED AND TRACK NE                  
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. THE EC HAS A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK AND PAINTS             
SOME PCPN IN CWA WHILE GFS IS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH WHICH KEEPS THE              
CWA DRY. WL NOT INTRODUCE POPS THUR AS WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE                   
CONTINUITY WITH MODEL RUNS BUT WL INCREASE CLOUD COVER.                         
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JRM/CLK                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
1035 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE LOW CLOUD                   
POTENTIAL MOVING INTO CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND THE LACK OF             
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS.                                      
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT MOVING                   
THROUGH AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. IT ALSO LOOKS              
LIKE THE JET STREAK/BAROCLINIC LEAF THAT WAS SUPPOSE TO PLAY A ROLE             
IN BRINGING SOME LIFT INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH LOW             
LEVEL MOISTURE TO BRING ANY RAIN. LATEST UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS FROM               
SGF AND TOP SHOWING THAT POCKET OF DRY AIR VERY WELL BELOW 700MB. AS            
A RESULT...WE ARE UNABLE TO SATURATE THE LOW LAYERS. LATEST                     
PROFILERS ARE ALSO SHOWING THE 700MB FLOW TURNING TO THE WEST ACROSS            
THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...WHICH WILL START                  
BRINGING DRY AIR INTO THE MID LEVELS. FOR NOW...WE HAVE REDUCED POPS            
CONSIDERABLY FOR COLLABORATION PURPOSES...BUT I AM NOT OPTIMISTIC               
THAT WE WILL SEE ANYTHING MORE THAN SPRINKLES IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS.              
THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN...APPEARS TO BE IN THE DROUGHT STRICKEN                 
REGION OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.                                
COX                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A LOW IFR STRATUS DECK PUSHING                
SOUTH TOWARDS THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER. THIS LAYER OF CLOUDS IS               
NOT BEING RESOLVED BY THE SHORT TERM MODELS VERY WELL AT ALL...WHICH            
IS PRETTY TYPICAL. BASED ON THE CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS I WOULD                
EXPECT THESE LOW CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO RUSSELL AND SALINA BETWEEN 22              
AND 24Z. CURRENT FORECASTED TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN THE BALL                 
PARK.                                                                           
COX                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1032 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2006/                        
UPDATE...                                                                       
MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE LOW CLOUD                   
POTENTIAL MOVING INTO CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND THE LACK OF             
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS.                                      
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT MOVING                   
THROUGH AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. IT ALSO LOOKS              
LIKE THE JET STREAK/BAROCLINIC LEAF THAT WAS SUPPOSE TO PLAY A ROLE             
IN BRINGING SOME LIFT INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH LOW             
LEVEL MOISTURE TO BRING ANY RAIN. LATEST UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS FROM               
SGF AND TOP SHOWING THAT POCKET OF DRY AIR VERY WELL BELOW 700MB. AS            
A RESULT...WE ARE UNABLE TO SATURATE THE LOW LAYERS. LATEST                     
PROFILERS ARE ALSO SHOWING THE 700MB FLOW TURNING TO THE WEST ACROSS            
THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...WHICH WILL START                  
BRINGING DRY AIR INTO THE MID LEVELS. FOR NOW...WE HAVE REDUCED POPS            
CONSIDERABLY FOR COLLABORATION PURPOSES...BUT I AM NOT OPTIMISTIC               
THAT WE WILL SEE ANYTHING MORE THAN SPRINKLES IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS.              
THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN...APPEARS TO BE IN THE DROUGHT STRICKEN                 
REGION OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.                                
COX                                                                             
&&                                                                              
AVIATION...                                                                     
ATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A LOW IFR STRATUS DECK PUSHING                 
SOUTH TOWARDS THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER. THIS LAYER OF CLOUDS IS               
NOT BEING RESOLVED BY THE SHORT TERM MODELS VERY WELL AT ALL...WHICH            
IS PRETTY TYPICAL. BASED ON THE CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS I WOULD                
EXPECT THESE LOW CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO RUSSELL AND SALINA BETWEEN 22              
AND 24Z. CURRENT FORECASTED TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN THE BALL                 
PARK.                                                                           
COX                                                                             
&&                                                                              
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2006/                          
SYNOPSIS...                                                                     
DATA ANALYSIS SHOWS A BAROCLINIC LEAF CLOUD RIGHT OVER THE REGION.              
THIS WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR TODAY. CONVECTION HAS                   
DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA...TEXAS...AND AREAS EAST WHILE                  
LIGHT RAIN HAS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN                   
TEXAS. KTLX RADAR SHOWING SOME PRETTY REASONABLE RETURNS THIS                   
MORNING. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE                   
FORECAST AREA.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
TODAY:                                                                          
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS ASCERTAINING PRECIPITATION                             
CHANCES/TYPE/AMOUNT FROM TODAYS SYSTEM. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS                  
MEDIUM.                                                                         
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE BAROCLINIC LEAF VERY WELL.               
DARKENING ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF                  
THE INFLECTION POINT WILL BE FURTHER WEST THAN FORECAST BY THE                  
MODELS. I BELIEVE THIS IS ALREADY MANIFESTING ITSELF IN THE                     
OBSERVED PRECIPITATION FURTHER WEST THAN ANY OF THE CURRENT MODEL               
FORECASTS SUGGEST.                                                              
THE NAM/RUC SOLUTIONS REMAIN THE FURTHEST WEST...HOWEVER THE 06Z                
RUNS CONTINUE TO TREND SOUTHEAST. STILL THINK PRECIPITATION                     
CHANCES WEST OF THIS IS A GOOD BET AT THIS POINT GIVEN CURRENT ACTIVITY.        
REGARDING THE TYPE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS USING A TOP DOWN APPROACH               
SUGGEST AN ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN CONDUCIVE TO SNOW...WITH ONLY THE                 
SURFACE LAYER PREVENTING THIS /IT CHANGES IT OVER TO RAIN WITH                  
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S/. HOWEVER...IF IT PRECIPITATES HARD               
ENOUGH...THE RAIN WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW FROM LATENT HEAT              
BE ABSORBED DUE TO MELTING...COOLING THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURE AT                 
THE SURFACE. THIS IS THE MOST DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST AT THIS            
JUNCTURE. KEPT A RAIN/SNOW MIX.                                                 
REGARDING TEMPERATURES...DID NOT FOLLOW THE TYPICAL DIURNAL CURVE               
GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING DURING THE                 
MORNING. SOUTHEAST KANSAS SHOULD SEE MORNING HIGHS...THEN                       
TEMPERATURES FALLING DUE TO DIABATIC COOLING FROM THE                           
PRECIPITATION MOVING IN.                                                        
THURSDAY-FRIDAY:                                                                
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM HERE IS DETERMINING THE TIMING OF THIS                    
SYSTEM.  CONFIDENCE HERE IS RATHER LOW.                                         
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME WITH                  
CONSISTENTLY TIMING THIS SYSTEM. GFS/DGEX SOLUTION SLOWS IT DOWN                
THIS RUN. THINK THIS IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE SINCE THIS SYSTEM IS                
MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF A SHIFT IN THE UPPER                
LEVEL FLOW REGIME. THIS SCENARIO TYPICALLY RESULTS IN MODELS                    
FORECASTING SYSTEM EVOLUTIONS TOO FAST. THEREFORE...BELIEVE                     
INTRODUCING PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO FRIDAY PERTINENT HERE.                   
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD                
AS THERE IS NO INDICATION OF A FLOW TRAJECTORY FROM THE ARCTIC                  
THAT WOULD BRING DOWN COLD AIR.                                                 
KRC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                 
WICHITA-KICT    46  25  49  27 /  30   0   0   0                                
HUTCHINSON      46  23  48  26 /  20   0   0   0                                
NEWTON          46  25  48  27 /  20   0   0   0                                
ELDORADO        46  25  48  27 /  30   0   0   0                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   47  26  50  27 /  30   0   0   0                                
RUSSELL         45  20  48  24 /  10   0   0   0                                
GREAT BEND      45  20  48  25 /  10   0   0   0                                
SALINA          45  22  48  26 /  20   0   0   0                                
MCPHERSON       46  23  48  26 /  20   0   0   0                                
COFFEYVILLE     47  26  49  28 /  40   0   0   0                                
CHANUTE         47  25  48  28 /  30   0   0   0                                
IOLA            46  25  48  28 /  30   0   0   0                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                             
235 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                                  
PRECIP AMOUNTS AND TIMING ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT                    
TERM...BUT LITTLE CHANGES MADE OVERALL TO CURRENT FCST PACKAGE.                 
CURRENT GOES WV LOOP SHOWS SHORTWAVE SLIDING OUT OF SOUTHWEST                   
CONUS WITH ASSOCIATED STREAM OF DEEP MOISTURE LIFTING NORTHWARD                 
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SFC...AN INVERTED                   
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A COASTAL TX LOW NORTHEAST TO THE TN VALLEY.                
H8 WARM FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE STALLED PER 12Z MAP ANALYSIS VS                   
CURRENT PROFILER DATA AND IS ACTING AS SOURCE FOR THE DEEPEST                   
MOIST ASCENT. THIS IS HELPING TO INCREASE PRECIP COVERAGE ON 88D                
MOSAIC OVER AR DURING THE PAST THREE HOURS. ANY CG LIGHTNING                    
THOUGH HAS HAD TOUGH TIME WORKING NORTH OF THE STALLED H8                       
FRONT...OR GENERALLY A KLIT TO KMKL LINE. CURRENT PRECIP                        
ACCUMULATIONS TOUGH TO GET A HANDLE ON DUE TO 88D BRIGHT                        
BANDING...BUT HERE AT WFO OVER HALF AN INCH SHOULD SPEAK FOR MOST               
OF THE SOUTHERN CWA UP TO MID AFTERNOON.                                        
GFS LOCATION OF PRECIP AND FORCING HAS BEEN FAIRLY CLOSE                        
THROUGHOUT PAST 12 HOURS SO HAVE LEANED ON THAT SOLUTION MORE SO                
DURING THE SHORT TERM. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT THE                 
SFC TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF CWA...HOWEVER PRECIP                 
WILL CONTINUE AS BROAD ASCENT TIGHTENS AND FOCUSES ON EASTERN CWA               
AFTER 00Z. SOUTHERN THUNDER PRESENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH K-INDICES                 
OF 28 AND H8 LIFTED INDICES OF NEAR ZERO. THESE VALUES BARELY                   
INFRINGE ON LOWER KY PENNYRILE DURING THE EARLY EVENING...SO HAVE               
KEPT SCHC THUNDER MENTION BUT ONLY TO 03Z. QPF AMOUNTS ARE MORE OF              
CHALLENGE...WHERE HPC GUIDANCE PAINTS AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO ONE AND              
A HALF INCHES ACROSS KY PENNYRILE...AND GENERALLY A HALF INCH OR                
MORE ELSEWHERE. HAVE GONE VERY CLOSE TO THIS AND TWEAKED UP                     
SLIGHTLY OVER LOWER PENNYRILE...BUT STILL AN 18-HOUR TOTAL BELOW                
FFG THRESHOLDS SO NO MENTION IN GRIDS NECESSARY. AND                            
FINALLY...NORTHERN CWA RUC AND GFS SNDGS CONTINUE TO KEEP WET BULB              
ABOVE ZERO AND LOWER TROP PROFILE ISOTHERMAL THROUGHOUT PRECIP                  
DURATION...SO ALL LIQUID ANTICIPATED.                                           
REST OF SHORT TERM FAIRLY BENIGN AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.                    
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RULE WITH TEMPS 8 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER                
ON MON THAN TODAY. WITH AMPLE WATER ON THE SFC DUE TO THE                       
RAINS...FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT BUT WILL LET NEXT SHIFT                   
ASSESS FURTHER. HAVE NUDGED TEMPS SLIGHTLY TOWARDS COOLER MET MOS.              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                        
DEEP NW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL TRANSITION TO A BUILDING MID                
LEVEL RIDGE. A SFC HIGH PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE              
REGION AT THE SAME TIME. THU MORNING...THE SFC HIGH WILL JUST BE                
DEPARTING TO THE EAST. WAA WILL PROBABLY START LATE ENOUGH TO                   
ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S FOR ALL EXCEPT SERN MO /THE              
COOLEST LOWS FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE/. A CUT OFF MID LEVEL LOW OVER               
SRN CA IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO EJECT ENEWD ACROSS THE MID MS                
RIVER VALLEY THU EVE...INTRODUCING WAA RAINS TO THE PAH FCST                    
AREA...MOVING GENERALLY FROM SW TO NE. BY SUNRISE ON FRI...THE                  
CHCS OF PCPN SEEM TO BE A LITTLE BETTER...BUT STILL RATHER                      
SMALL...AS THE LOW/S/WV PASSES TO THE NORTH. CANADIAN GEM WAS                   
QUITE SIMILAR TO THE GFS WITH THE OVERALL MID/UPPER PATTERN WHILE               
ECMWF/UKMET SHOWED THE FEATURE FARTHER TO THE NW. THIS TENDED TO                
INJECT SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO THE FCST...THUS THE LOW POPS ATTM.                 
MOST OF THE PCPN WILL PROBABLY END OVER THE REGION BY AFTN AS THE               
S/WV CONTINUES TO OPEN UP AND MOVE EAST.                                        
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEKEND...BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF                      
SUGGEST A FAIRLY UNSETTLED PATTERN...WITH SW FLOW ALOFT AND THEN                
THE APPROACH OF YET ANOTHER PRONOUNCED LONG WAVE AND ASSOCIATED                 
COLD FRONT. TIMING OF INITIAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE(S) EJECTING OUT               
OF THE MAIN LONGWAVE TROF WILL BE DIFFICULT AT BEST...SO WILL JUST              
GO WITH BLANKET CHC POPS SAT AND SUNDAY. STILL NO ARCTIC AIR IN                 
SIGHT AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ZONAL EVEN AFTER THE WEEKEND                    
SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION. WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE               
PERIOD. THIS JANUARY WILL END UP CHALLENGING AS ONE OF THE WARMEST              
ON RECORD IN PADUCAH...IF NOT THE WARMEST.                                      
&&                                                                              
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MTF/DB/GM                                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                             
1103 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
FORECAST UPDATED MAINLY TO CLEAN UP AFTN WORDING. FIRST ROUND OF                
RAIN SHIELD NOW OVER AREA. THOUGH SOME HOLES EXIST IN 88D MOSAIC                
OVER NE AR AND WEST TN...NEARLY COMPLETE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED AS                
WV LOOP AND SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW DEEP MOISTURE LIFTING UPWARD                
OVER H8 WARM FRONT. ACCORDING TO K-INDICES AND RUC SOUNDING                     
EXAMINATION...THUNDER POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS ROUGHLY ALONG AND                  
SOUTH OF THE WESTERN KENTUCKY AND PURCHASE PARKWAYS. AM SEEING                  
SOME BRIGHT BANDING ON 88D BUT AT ROUGHLY 6000 FT LEVEL. EVEN                   
THOUGH SFC TEMPS AND WET BULB VALUES ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE                
FREEZING...LOWER TROP PROFILE REMAINS ISOTHERMAL OR EVEN SLIGHTLY               
INVERTED. SO STILL NO FROZEN PRECIP EXPECTED.                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
EARLY THIS MORNING...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED SHOWERS AND                   
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING RAPIDLY NE ACROSS ARKANSAS. BASED ON              
THIS...WE FAVOR THE FASTER GFS...WHICH SPREADS RAIN CHANCES NORTH               
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF OUR AREA 12-18Z.                                     
BY THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT RAIN ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE                    
AREA. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS NW TO CATEGORICAL SE FOR RAIN. KEPT                 
A THUNDER MENTION IN THE KHOP AREA FOR EARLY TONIGHT BASED ON                   
ELEVATED STABILITY FIELDS...BUT BETTER ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL                
LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST. AS FAR AS HEAVY RAIN...HPC PROGS                  
SUGGEST UP TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE SE 1/4 OF OUR CWFA.                 
THIS IS OVER A 24 HOUR PERIOD. FFG VALUES 12 TO 24 HOURS ARE                    
ON THE ORDER OF 3 TO 4 INCHES...SO WHILE THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY                  
AT TIMES...WILL NOT MENTION THAT FOR NOW BASED ON DURATION.                     
WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST AT 06Z TONIGHT. BOTH               
THE NAM AND GFS SUGGESTING PRECIP ENDS BEFORE ENOUGH LOW TROP COOL              
AIR CAN GET INTO THE AREA...TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT ANYTHING OTHER                
THAN LIQUID PRECIP. SO FOR NOW...WILL NOT MENTION...ALTHOUGH AN                 
EXTREMELY BRIEF AND NON CONSEQUENTIAL MIX COULD OCCUR OVER THE                  
WEST AT THE TAIL END. MODELS ARE FAST ENOUGH PUSHING PRECIP OUT                 
OF HERE BY 12Z MONDAY...THAT WE WILL NOT INCLUDE POPS IN THE                    
MORNING.                                                                        
BEYOND MONDAY...FEW IF ANY CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST. MODELS                 
STILL ADVERTISE A LATE WEEK CHANCE OF RAIN. CONFIDENCE IN THIS                  
IS LOW AS IT SEEMS THE MODELS HAVE NOT LOCKED IN TO A CONSISTENT                
SIGNAL. THUS OUR LOW POPS LOOK GOOD.                                            
GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.                  
TODAY...WENT AT OR JUST BELOW MOS...BASED ON CLOUDS...EXPECTED                  
SFC ADVECTION...AND EVENTUALLY THE RAIN.                                        
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
KY...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
CN/MTF                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC                             
940 PM EST SUN JAN 22 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
HV BEEN WATCHING RADAR AND SFC DEWPTS THIS EVNG. CRRNTLY...SWATH OF             
RAIN ACRS SRN CWFA...CHO-EZF...APPRS TO BE SHUNTED EWD BY SFC RDGG.             
FEW ECHOES MAKING IT NWD ALNG/W OF BLURDG. INFLUENCE OF HIPRES...               
CNTRD OVR SRN NEW ENGLND...FELT DWN ERN SEABRD...HOLDING OFF RAFL.              
HWVR...W/ GOOD THTE ADVCTN...THINK THAT WL BE SPREADING NWD NXT SVRL            
HRS.                                                                            
DEWPTS ACRS NRN CWFA UPR TEENS-MID 20S...SRN CWFA LWR 30S. ABV FRZG             
DEWPTS ALSO EVIDENT W OF APPLCHN RDGLN...IN WVA. THUS...WK CAD AND              
DEWPT DEPRESSIONS/WET BULB TEMPS CUD COMBINE TO CREATE A FZRA ISSUE             
FRTHR E THAN CRRNTLY ADVERTISED.                                                
00Z SNDGS FM RNK/GSO DEPICT A CLASSIC FZRA SETUP. IAD RAOB REVEALS              
ATMOS HAS A BIT OF MSTNG TO UNDERGO...THO SATD ARND H8. LOOKING AT              
DRY AIR BLO THAT...IT REINFORCES MY CONCERN FOR FZRA IN DC WRN/NWRN             
BURBS. WUD NOT BE AS CONCERNED IN THE S IF IT WERENT FOR THE RNK                
SNDG.                                                                           
LTST RUC AND NAM KEEP LLVL COLD AIR TRAPPED IN SHEN VLY ONLY...IN               
LINE W/ GOING ADVSRY. LAMP PLOTS CONCUR AS WELL. PAVEMENT/GRND TEMP             
ALSO NEED TO BE CONSIDERED...WHICH ARE ABV FRZG ATTM. AND...RA JUST             
STARTED HERE AT LWX W/ SFC TEMP 38F. IT WL BE REAL CLOSE...BUT BASED            
ON CRRNT EVIDENCE...WL HOLD W/ STATUS QUO...BASED UPON WARMTH ALFT              
MIXING DWN ONCE STDY RAFL REACHES DC/BALT.                                      
MOREOVER...UPON TAKING A WIDER RADAR VIEW...ONCE PCPN IN ASSOC W/               
NOSE OF THTE RDG PUSHES NWD...NOT A LOT OF PCPN PRESENT ATTM ACRS               
SRN VA. SO...W/ CHG WORDING FM DEF TO PDS. TEMPS LOOK GOOD...AND WL             
RISE SLGTLY ONCE WET BULB VALUES HV BEEN ATTAINED. OF COURSE...WL               
CONT TO MONITOR.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...CONDS WL DETERIORATE TO MVFR...W/ IFR VSBYS AFTR MIDNGT.            
WNDS WL BE LGT...ATTAINING NWLY TRAG ONCE WV SNEAKS BY AREA...WHICH             
WL BE LT MON AFTN.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...WNDS 10-15 KT ATTM. LLJ LIKELY TO REMAIN ELEVATED W/ STBL             
SFC CONDS.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...                                          
MSAS SFC ANALYSIS AT 18Z SHOWS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING                
OVER MS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND NAM. A               
GOOD DEAL OF OVERRUNNING MOISTURE HAS ALREADY MOVED NORTH OF THE LOW            
CENTER INTO TN/KY AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN VA. 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS              
AND NAM PROJECT THAT THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH            
MONDAY AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY EVENING. GOOD TAP OF               
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEX WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF                  
AROUND AN INCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING WEST OF            
THE BLUE RIDGE AND AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS WILL COMBINE TO             
PRODUCE FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH AROUND 17Z MONDAY. WARMER AIR             
ALOFT WILL MIX TO THE SFC ACROSS THIS AREA MONDAY DURING THE LATE               
MORNING...RESULTING IN A CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN. HIGHS MONDAY WILL              
BE COOLER THAN TODAY WITH WET BULB EFFECT KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN               
THE MID 30S WEST TO LOWER 40S EAST. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO END BY EARLY            
AFTERNOON WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IN LOWER             
SOUTHERN MD...AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER EXITS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC             
COAST.                                                                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
MVFR VSBYS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AFTER 00Z AT CHO AND AFTER 02Z             
AT IAD/DCA/MRB/BWI/MTN. IFR VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL             
TAF SITES AFTER 06Z IN LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR              
VSBYS IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z MONDAY.                                   
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                      
OTHER THAN A TRANSIENT SHOT OF SEASONABLE WEATHER ON WED INTO THU...            
WINTER CONTINUES TO BE ON WINTER BREAK MUCH OF THE UNITED STATES.               
THE COLDEST AIR FROM THE POLAR VORTEX IS OVER RUSSIA WHERE THE ARE              
DEALING WITH EXTRAORDINARILY COLD AIR. OUR WINTERLESS MID WINTER                
SHOWS NO SIGNS OF ABATING AS THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS ABOVE NORMAL               
TEMPS CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF JANUARY...AGAIN WITH THE                   
EXCEPTION OF WED AND THU OF THIS WEEK.                                          
JANUARY SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE FINISHING IN THE TOP 20 WARMEST                  
JANUARYS ON RECORD FOR THE REGION...AND WILL LIKELY BE A TOP 10                 
RECORD. CURRENTLY JANUARY IN WASHINGTON IS THE SEVENTH WARMEST AND              
BALTIMORE THE EIGHTH WARMEST ON RECORD. RECORDS DATE BACK TO THE                
LATE 1800S. THOSE STATISTICS ARE FOR THE PERIOD JAN 1 THRU JAN 21.              
BOTH CITIES ARE ABOUT THE WARMEST EARLY AND MIDDLE JANUARY SINCE                
1998... WITH WASHINGTON SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN 1998 AND BALTIMORE                 
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN 1998.                                                      
THAT SAID...BY MON NIGHT THE FRONTAL PRECIP FROM MON SHOULD BE OFF              
TO OUR SE...WITH SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SNSH IN THE MOUNTAINS POSSIBLE IN            
THE EVENING. THEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF SETTLED WEATHER TUE MORN.                   
TUE EVE THE COLD FRONT APPROACHED AND CROSSES THE REGION TUE NIGHT.             
THAT PROB WILL NOT BRING ANY PRECIP TO MOST OF THE FA...NOT ENUF                
MOISTURE. HOWEVER UPSLOPE SHSN IN THE MTNS WILL START AFTER FROPA AS            
GOOD COLD ADVCTN WORKS IN OVER THE AREA. WED 850MB TMPS DROP TO                 
ABOUT -10C WHICH WILL DROP THE REGION DOWN TO...OR JUST A BIT                   
BELOW... CLIMO NORMS WED INTO THU.                                              
AFTER THAT HIGH PRES MOVES IN THROUGH FRI. NEXT STORMINESS NOT                  
EXPECTED UNTIL LATE SAT AND SUNDAY AS YET ANOTHER LOW PASSES TO OUR             
N WITH RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE REGION.                                             
MARINE...                                                                       
WINDS AHEAD OF THE WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE               
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 10 TO 15 KT.            
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST               
WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON               
AND REMAIN BELOW 15 KT.                                                         
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TUE NIGHT INTO WED                 
NIGHT.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
DC...NONE.                                                                      
MD...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR MDZ002-003 FROM 8 PM SUNDAY TO NOON             
     MONDAY.                                                                    
VA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR VAZ021-025>031 FROM 8 PM SUNDAY TO              
     NOON MONDAY.                                                               
WV...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR WVZ048>055 FROM 8 PM SUNDAY TO NOON             
     MONDAY.                                                                    
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...HTS                                                                    
PREV DISCUSSION...SMITH/STRONG                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   md                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
356 PM CST FRI JAN 20 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
COMPLEX FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. WARM FRONT HAS WIGGLED              
ITS WAY NORTHWEST...ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM JUST NORTH OF NATCHEZ             
TO VAUGHAN TO EUPORA. EAST OF THE BOUNDARY... DEWPOINTS HAVE JUMPED             
INTO THE LOW/MID 60S WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. THIS HAS             
LED TO MORE INSTABILITY THAN FIRST ANTICIPATED. TODAY'S SUITE OF                
MODEL GUIDANCE NOT ACCURATELY DEPICTING CURRENT AMOUNT OF                       
INSTABILITY AND HAVE RELIED ON OBS AND RUC INITIALIZATIONS FOR THE              
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.                                           
TONIGHT...COUPLED ULJ STRUCTURE WHICH HAS FOSTERED THE WIDESPREAD               
AND PERSISTENT RAINS OVER THE ARKLATEX WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN                
THIS EVENING AS UPPER DISTURBANCE PIVOTS TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST. AS              
IT PIVOTS...WIDESPREAD RAINS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHWEST                    
PORTION OF THE FA. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMNTS OVER EXTREME SE                   
ARK...EXTREME NE LA AND NW MS WILL APPROACH 3 INCHES (POSSIBLY                  
EXCEED IN A FEW SPOTS). THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL STALL                
THIS EVENING ROUGHLY FROM GRENADA TO VICKSBURG TO JUST EAST OF                  
ALEXANDRIA LA. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH                 
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE 60S. A CAP DOES EXIST ~750MB AND             
WILL REQUIRE THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE TO WEAKEN IT COMPLETELY. IN            
FACT...TSRA HAVE ALREADY ERUPTED THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN ZONES               
AND CAP WILL NOT PLAY MUCH OF A PROHIBITIVE FACTOR. INSTABILITY                 
WISE...LIS AND SHOWALTERS ARE WEAKLY NEGATIVE...700-500MB LAPSE                 
RATES ARE AROUND 7 C/KM RANGE AND MUCAPE RANGING FROM 700 J/KG IN               
THE NORTHEAST TO 1500 J/KG IN THE SOUTH. WITH 0-6KM EFFECTIVE SHEAR             
AROUND 40KTS AND 0-1KM EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS...AM BECOMING A             
LITTLE MORE CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERE WX LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS              
EVENING. GENERALLY SPEAKING AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE            
NATCHEZ TRACE PKWY CORRIDOR WILL BE PRONE TO SVR WX THIS EVENING...             
AND HAVE UPDATED HWO TO ADD RISK OF TORNADOES. HAVE KEPT COVERAGE               
ISOLATED ATTM...BUT MAY NEED TO UPDATE TO SCT IN SOUTHERN TIER OF               
ZONES (ROUGHLY SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR). WARM FRONT WILL                     
TRANSITION TO COLD FRONT AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AND BEGIN SHIFT TO             
THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. PERIODS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON               
TAP ALL NIGHT.                                                                  
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HAVE FOLLOWED SLOWER NAM PROGRESSIVE OF               
THE COLD FRONT INTO TOMORROW. LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED TO THE GOING             
FORECAST BEST POPS IN THE EAST...TAPERING OFF QUICKLY TO THE WEST.              
TEMPS WILL NOT RISE MUCH POST FRONTAL AND DROP DURING THE DAY IN THE            
EAST. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY HOLD IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S BY                   
AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT...CLEARING WILL BEGIN AND LOWS WILL DROP TO             
SEASONAL LEVELS...IN THE 30S./GAGAN/                                            
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO REAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.            
MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT THIS RUN. STILL DRY FOR TUESDAY THROUGH            
THURSDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA ON                      
TUESDAY...BRINGING THE DRIER AIR BEHIND IT. AS THE NEXT UPPER LOW               
DROPS INTO THE NORTHEAST...THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. THE                
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST. AGAIN THE            
EUROPEAN AND GFS DIFFER IN THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. BOTH MODELS                 
AGREE PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED INTO THE AREA AS THE SYSTEMS            
MOVES EAST. THE GFS HAS SHIFTED CLOSER TO THE EUROPEAN...LIFTING THE            
WAVE OUT FASTER...INSTEAD OF THE EASTWARD TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS               
RUNS. GFS WAS STARTING TO SHOW A SLOWER TREND AND BACKED OFF ON RAIN            
FOR THURSDAY...SO LOWERED POPS AND REMOVED RAIN. BY FRIDAY MORNING              
THE UPPER LOW APPEARS TO BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. MID LEVEL LAPSE             
RATES WERE STILL WEAK TO MARGINAL. 0-6 KM SHEAR WAS LESS TODAY...BUT            
STILL OK...WILL STILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY THOUGH. LOOKING FOR           
MORE WARM ADVECTION TYPE SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY NOW             
LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER RAIN DAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES...                
MODELS SUGGEST A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH INTO THE THE AREA. RIGHT               
NOW THE BEST ACTIVITY MAY BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES. MODEL              
QPF IS BEST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND SHEAR ESTIMATES FROM THE                 
SOUNDINGS ARE 40KTS PLUS. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE NEAR 7 C/KM                
EVERYWHERE...ALTHOUGH THE BETTER VALUES WERE OVER THE SOUTH AND                 
WEST. THERE ALSO SEEMS TO BE A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE              
DELTA EARLY SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH                    
DEVELOPS...PUSHING THE BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH SOME GOOD              
QPF AMOUNTS...CONTINUING TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL            
MAINTAIN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY. THE SURFACE                
LOWS MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE             
CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE AREA            
GETS A SHORT BREAK MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA            
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE                    
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...BUT NOT REALLY LOOKING FOR MUCH COLD AIR TO                 
SETTLE OVER THE AREA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE AREA WARM EACH             
RUN. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW WARM ADVECTION MOST OF THE                       
WEEK...WITH THE BEST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ANYWAY WILL STICK                 
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE VALUES ON TEMPS AND POPS. NOT QUITE READY TO GO               
WITH LOWER 70S OVER THE SOUTH FOR THE WEEKEND. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW            
CLOUDS MOVING IN AROUND WEDNESDAY. CROSS SECTION SHOW SOME HIGH                 
LEVEL MOISTURE. DID NOT WANT TO MAKE THE AREA MOSTLY CLOUDY ON                  
WEDNESDAY...SO BACKED ON SOME TO KEEP THE AREA PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL              
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MADE SOME TIMING ADJUSTMENTS AND A FEW TWEAKS TO            
THE TEMPS...OTHERWISE NO REAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST.                 
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM: GAGAN                                                               
LONG TERM: 07                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   ms                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
800 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
STRATUS MOVING IN A LITTLE FASTER SO WILL MAKE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO            
SKY GRIDS TO HANDLE THE EARLIER ARRIVAL.  ALSO PUT A MENTION OF FOG             
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE STRATUS.  NOT EXPECTING A DENSE FOG...BUT               
VISIBILITIES MAY DROP AS LOW AS 2 MILES OVERNIGHT AS CEILINGS LOWER             
A BIT.                                                                          
PC                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
305 PM CST SUN...                                                               
LOW STRATUS JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY DISSIPATED OVER                
NEBRASKA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE STRATUS HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT                      
PERSISTENT OVER IOWA...BUT IS DISSIPATING ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGE.             
AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTHWARD LATE THIS EVENING...WHATS LEFT OF              
THE STRATUS WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME              
REDEVELOPMENT AFTER SUNSET. WINDS WILL BE VERY WEAK TONIGHT. SO DO              
NOT EXPECT A STRONG PUSH OF DRY AIR INTO THE AREA...THEREFORE AREAS             
OF FOG SHOULD DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY WHERE SKIES CLEAR. THE CHANCE FOR            
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL ALSO PLAY HAVOC WITH THE MIN TEMP FORECAST. IF              
SKIES STAY MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LITTLE OR NO FOG...THEN TEMPS WILL BE              
COOLER THAN FORECAST. THIS HAS A CHANCE OF HAPPENING ALONG THE                  
KANSAS-MISSOURI BORDER. ON THE OTHER HAND...LOCATIONS WHICH DO NOT              
CLEAR AND WHICH DO NOT HAVE LOWER DEW POINTS ADVECT IN...WILL HAVE A            
HARD TIME DROPPING.                                                             
NAM/GFS AGREE ON BRINGING THE TAIL-END OF A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN            
MISSOURI ON MONDAY...AS A SHEARED OUT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE               
NORTHERN STREAM. COLD AIR WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE                         
REGION...LEAVING A MODEST WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND ACROSS THE             
FORECAST AREA. THIS MEANS AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES OVER TODAY.               
ANOTHER SO CALLED COLD FRONT WILL GLANCE PAST THE FORECAST AREA                 
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND                
INCREASING THE WIND. THIS MEANS EVEN WARMER TEMPS ON TUESDAY.                   
NRR                                                                             
FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE UP COMING WORK WEEK A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES             
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGING A POTENTIAL FOR                   
PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST WAVE WILL BE THE LEFT OVERS FROM A CUTOFF              
LOW THAT WILL FORM OVER THE CALIFORNIA/MEXICO BORDER MONDAY. 12Z GFS            
HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. THIS SOLUTION ADVERTISES THAT             
A SECOND SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY FOUND OVER THE PACIFIC AROUND                    
170W...WILL OPEN UP THE CUTOFF AND KICK IT THROUGH THE CENTRAL                  
PLAINS DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...A LARGE AREA            
OF HIGH PRESSURE SINKING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE            
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL MAKE MOISTURE SCARCE. DESPITE THE GFS               
SOLUTION CONVERGING TOWARD THE ECMWF...THERE IS STILL A BIT OF A                
SPREAD IN THE WAVES PROJECTED PATH...WITH THE ECMWF TAKING THE                  
SLIGHTLY QUICKER AND FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION. BOTH SCENARIOS WOULD               
LEAVE EASTERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DECENT WARM            
AIR ADVECTION THURSDAY. OPTED TO ADD ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO                 
THURSDAY DAY AND NIGHT THOUGH...DUE TO THE SPREAD IN THE PROJECTED              
PATH AND MOISTURE QUESTION.                                                     
THE SECOND WAVE IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW THE FIRST THROUGH THE CENTRAL             
PLAINS SATURDAY. POTENTIAL IS MUCH BETTER FOR ABUNDANT PRECIPITATION            
WITH THE SECOND WAVE AS THERE WONT BE A PRECEDING SURFACE HIGH TO               
BLOCK THE GULF MOISTURE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE VARIABILITY OF THE                 
MODELS THIS FAR OUT...AND THE SPEED WITH WHICH THESE WAVES WILL BE              
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW...CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND POSITION OF              
THE SECOND WAVE IS LOW. THEREFORE I HAVE ADDED ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE               
POPS TO SATURDAY AT THIS TIME.                                                  
CUTTER                                                                          
325 AM SUN...                                                                   
GOING BALD TRYING TO GET A HANDLE ON THE STRATUS CLOUDINESS. MODELS             
HAVE DONE A POOR JOB WITH THESE CLOUDS THE LAST 2 DAYS. BEST TOOL TO            
USE IS SATELLITE IMAGERY AND GO WITH THE TREND. UNFORTUNATELY THICK             
DECK OF CIRRUS OBSCURES THE LOW CLOUDS. HAVE NOTICED THAT BOTH STJ              
AND UIN HAVE LOST THEIR STRATUS CEILING. BELIEVE THE STRATUS                    
CLOUDINESS IS NOW FLOWING WITH THE SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WIND                
FIELD AND HEADING NORTH NOW. WILL USE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TO MARK THE            
BACK EDGE OF CLEARING LOW CLOUDS. RUC/NAM MOVE THIS RIDGE AXIS INTO             
SOUTHERN IA BY 18Z. HOWEVER...EVEN AFTER GETTING RID OF THE STRATUS             
DECK THERE WILL BE A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CIRRUS MID/HIGH                     
CLOUDINESS TO DEAL WITH ALL DAY. THIS CLOUD COVER IS DOWNSTREAM OF A            
SHORTWAVE WHICH RUNS FM CNTRL NM INTO NORTHWEST MEX. NOW APPEARS                
THAT THE FRONTOGENIC FORCING WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE CWA SO WILL                 
FORECAST AREA DRY TODAY/TONIGHT. WILL TRIM BACK HIGHS TODAY BASED               
UPON NEARLY OPAQUE HIGH CLOUDINESS AND NEUTRAL ADVECTION. STILL WE              
SHOULD END UP WARMER THAN NORMAL.                                               
HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT FOG WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A            
WEAK COLD FRONT. NO DRYING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT SO TEMPERATURES WILL              
HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF DROPPING TO CURRENT DEWPOINTS OR LOWER. NAM               
SOUNDINGS AND TIME CROSS SECTION HINT AT EITHER FOG OR STRATUS                  
FORMING LATE TONIGHT. GIVEN BROKEN UPSTREAM STRATUS BEHIND THE FRONT            
CAN SEE WHY MODELS PICKED UP ON THIS. WILL MENTION FOG AND PARTLY               
CLOUDY SKIES IN ZONES FOR TONIGHT.                                              
RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR CWA THROUGH MID                
WEEK WITH EVOLUTION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS            
REACHING AS FAR EAST AS MO. WITH THAT IN MIND WILL BUMP UP MAX                  
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A CUT            
OFF LOW FORMING EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK OVER SOUTHERN CA/NORTHWEST               
MEXICO. LATEST PROGS SHOW A GOOD SIZE KICKED BUT NOT READY TO JUMP              
ON IT JUST YET.                                                                 
MJ                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
WFO EAX                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
305 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
LOW STRATUS JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY DISSIPATED OVER                
NEBRASKA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE STRATUS HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT                      
PERSISTENT OVER IOWA...BUT IS DISSIPATING ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGE.             
AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTHWARD LATE THIS EVENING...WHATS LEFT OF              
THE STRATUS WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME              
REDEVELOPMENT AFTER SUNSET. WINDS WILL BE VERY WEAK TONIGHT. SO DO              
NOT EXPECT A STRONG PUSH OF DRY AIR INTO THE AREA...THEREFORE AREAS             
OF FOG SHOULD DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY WHERE SKIES CLEAR. THE CHANCE FOR            
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL ALSO PLAY HAVOC WITH THE MIN TEMP FORECAST. IF              
SKIES STAY MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LITTLE OR NO FOG...THEN TEMPS WILL BE              
COOLER THAN FORECAST. THIS HAS A CHANCE OF HAPPENING ALONG THE                  
KANSAS-MISSOURI BORDER. ON THE OTHER HAND...LOCATIONS WHICH DO NOT              
CLEAR AND WHICH DO NOT HAVE LOWER DEW POINTS ADVECT IN...WILL HAVE A            
HARD TIME DROPPING.                                                             
NAM/GFS AGREE ON BRINGING THE TAIL-END OF A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN            
MISSOURI ON MONDAY...AS A SHEARED OUT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE               
NORTHERN STREAM. COLD AIR WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE                         
REGION...LEAVING A MODEST WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND ACROSS THE             
FORECAST AREA. THIS MEANS AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES OVER TODAY.               
ANOTHER SO CALLED COLD FRONT WILL GLANCE PAST THE FORECAST AREA                 
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND                
INCREASING THE WIND. THIS MEANS EVEN WARMER TEMPS ON TUESDAY.                   
NRR                                                                             
FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE UP COMING WORK WEEK A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES             
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGING A POTENTIAL FOR                   
PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST WAVE WILL BE THE LEFT OVERS FROM A CUTOFF              
LOW THAT WILL FORM OVER THE CALIFORNIA/MEXICO BORDER MONDAY. 12Z GFS            
HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. THIS SOLUTION ADVERTISES THAT             
A SECOND SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY FOUND OVER THE PACIFIC AROUND                    
170W...WILL OPEN UP THE CUTOFF AND KICK IT THROUGH THE CENTRAL                  
PLAINS DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...A LARGE AREA            
OF HIGH PRESSURE SINKING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE            
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL MAKE MOISTURE SCARCE. DESPITE THE GFS               
SOLUTION CONVERGING TOWARD THE ECMWF...THERE IS STILL A BIT OF A                
SPREAD IN THE WAVES PROJECTED PATH...WITH THE ECMWF TAKING THE                  
SLIGHTLY QUICKER AND FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION. BOTH SCENARIOS WOULD               
LEAVE EASTERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DECENT WARM            
AIR ADVECTION THURSDAY. OPTED TO ADD ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO                 
THURSDAY DAY AND NIGHT THOUGH...DUE TO THE SPREAD IN THE PROJECTED              
PATH AND MOISTURE QUESTION.                                                     
THE SECOND WAVE IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW THE FIRST THROUGH THE CENTRAL             
PLAINS SATURDAY. POTENTIAL IS MUCH BETTER FOR ABUNDANT PRECIPITATION            
WITH THE SECOND WAVE AS THERE WONT BE A PRECEDING SURFACE HIGH TO               
BLOCK THE GULF MOISTURE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE VARIABILITY OF THE                 
MODELS THIS FAR OUT...AND THE SPEED WITH WHICH THESE WAVES WILL BE              
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW...CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND POSITION OF              
THE SECOND WAVE IS LOW. THEREFORE I HAVE ADDED ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE               
POPS TO SATURDAY AT THIS TIME.                                                  
CUTTER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
325 AM SUN...                                                                   
GOING BALD TRYING TO GET A HANDLE ON THE STRATUS CLOUDINESS. MODELS             
HAVE DONE A POOR JOB WITH THESE CLOUDS THE LAST 2 DAYS. BEST TOOL TO            
USE IS SATELLITE IMAGERY AND GO WITH THE TREND. UNFORTUNATELY THICK             
DECK OF CIRRUS OBSCURES THE LOW CLOUDS. HAVE NOTICED THAT BOTH STJ              
AND UIN HAVE LOST THEIR STRATUS CEILING. BELIEVE THE STRATUS                    
CLOUDINESS IS NOW FLOWING WITH THE SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WIND                
FIELD AND HEADING NORTH NOW. WILL USE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TO MARK THE            
BACK EDGE OF CLEARING LOW CLOUDS. RUC/NAM MOVE THIS RIDGE AXIS INTO             
SOUTHERN IA BY 18Z. HOWEVER...EVEN AFTER GETTING RID OF THE STRATUS             
DECK THERE WILL BE A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CIRRUS MID/HIGH                     
CLOUDINESS TO DEAL WITH ALL DAY. THIS CLOUD COVER IS DOWNSTREAM OF A            
SHORTWAVE WHICH RUNS FM CNTRL NM INTO NORTHWEST MEX. NOW APPEARS                
THAT THE FRONTOGENIC FORCING WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE CWA SO WILL                 
FORECAST AREA DRY TODAY/TONIGHT. WILL TRIM BACK HIGHS TODAY BASED               
UPON NEARLY OPAQUE HIGH CLOUDINESS AND NEUTRAL ADVECTION. STILL WE              
SHOULD END UP WARMER THAN NORMAL.                                               
HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT FOG WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A            
WEAK COLD FRONT. NO DRYING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT SO TEMPERATURES WILL              
HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF DROPPING TO CURRENT DEWPOINTS OR LOWER. NAM               
SOUNDINGS AND TIME CROSS SECTION HINT AT EITHER FOG OR STRATUS                  
FORMING LATE TONIGHT. GIVEN BROKEN UPSTREAM STRATUS BEHIND THE FRONT            
CAN SEE WHY MODELS PICKED UP ON THIS. WILL MENTION FOG AND PARTLY               
CLOUDY SKIES IN ZONES FOR TONIGHT.                                              
RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR CWA THROUGH MID                
WEEK WITH EVOLUTION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS            
REACHING AS FAR EAST AS MO. WITH THAT IN MIND WILL BUMP UP MAX                  
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A CUT            
OFF LOW FORMING EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK OVER SOUTHERN CA/NORTHWEST               
MEXICO. LATEST PROGS SHOW A GOOD SIZE KICKED BUT NOT READY TO JUMP              
ON IT JUST YET.                                                                 
MJ                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
WFO EAX                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO                                         
831 PM EST SUN JAN 22 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)...                                                        
MNLY RA ADVANCING NNE ACRS SRN OH TWD OUR AREA.  TEMPS SEEMED TO                
HOLD NEARLY STEADY WHILE DWPTS ROSE AS PRECIP STARTED FOR PLACES IN             
SRN OH. WL KP ADVSRY GOING DUE TO SOME PLACES LIKE MFD WITH TEMPS               
ALREADY AT OR WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF FREEZING PT. XPCT SOME OUTLYING            
SPOTS TO AT LEAST BE THIS CLD.  WRM LYR STARTING JUST ABV SFC UP TO             
NR 5K FT WITH TEMPS PEAKING 4 OR 5 DEG C.  THIS PROB REASON FOR                 
TEMPS NOT FALLING WITH PRECIP START SINCE RAIN REACHING GND PROB IN             
35 TO 40 DEG RANGE SO TENDING TO HOLD TEMPS IN PLACE EVEN WITH EVAP             
GOING ON.  WITH MNN AT 33 ALSO WL ADD A FEW MORE CO'S ONTO WRN END              
OF ADVSRY AREA.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...                           
INVERTED TROF MOVING UP...THE 12Z MODEL RUN CONTINUES TO BACK OFF ON            
HOW FAR NORTH THE MOISTURE GETS AND KEEPS IT WARM. MODEL RUNS HAVE              
SOME DIFFERENCES WITH MORE WITH NAM AND THAT SEEMS TO FIT THE RADAR             
ATTM. MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW IT SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN/FREEZING             
RAIN MOST OF TONIGHT...SOME SNOW POSSIBLE NORTHWEST PA. WENT WITH A             
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WITH               
TEMPERATURES NEAR 32F AND DEW POINTS LOW. THE RRQ OF THE JET SHOULD             
HELP WITH THE DYNAMICS. WE SHOULD NOT GET A LOT OF EVAPORATIVE                  
COOLING BUT ENOUGH TO GET SOME LOCATIONS NEAR 32F FOR SOME FREEZING             
RAIN. AS THE PCPN STARTS DEW POINTS SHOULD COME UP AND TEMPERATAURES            
JUST DROP A LITTLE. PCPN AMOUNTS INCLUDING RAIN SHOULD BE .10 OR                
LESS. THE GROUND IS NOT THAT WARM SO SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION                    
WILL OCCUR. THIS IS QUICK SHOT OF PCPN AND THE WORSE SHOULD BE OVER             
BY 12Z. GUID MIN TEMPS A LITTLE TOO COOL WITH THE CLOUD                         
COVER...RAISED SOME. LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE LIKE ERIE AND CLE WILL             
HAVE A SE DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND THAT MIGHT HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE            
FREEZING...HOWEVER...SOME SPOTS WILL BE NEAR 32 OR 31F. AMOUNTS                 
ALONG THE LAKESHORE MAY JUST APPROACH .01 OR .02 THUS WITH IT BEING             
LIGHT AND UNCERTAIN WHETHER IT WILL EVEN MAKE IT...NO ADVISORY ALONG            
THE LAKESHORE.                                                                  
RIDGE BUILDS IN QUICKLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN MODELS AGREE WITH             
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH PLENTY OF COLD             
AIR. 850 MB WINDS OF 50 TO 55 KNOTS AND WITH THE LAPSE RATES                    
BECOMING UNSTABLE...NOT MUCH SHEAR AND MOMENTUM TRANSFER FROM BUFKIT            
HAD 40 KNOTS...THE LOW SEEMS FAR ENOUGH NORTH...THE PRESSURE                    
GRADIENT BECOME QUITE STONG BY 18Z TUE. GUSTS IN THE 40 MPH RANGE               
SEEM VERY REASONABLE...ATTM IT WOULD JUST BE AN ADVISORY...DOESN'T              
SEEM STRONG ENOUGH FOR A WIND WATCH ATTM. SOME LAKE EFFECT OR LAKE              
INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT ESPECIALLY              
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LAKE AND 850 MB             
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE APPROACHES 13C. WITH THE NW FLOW THE BEST                
CHANCE FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE INLAND NW PA. A S/WV FOR                   
WEDNESDAY COULD CAUSE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR THE SNOW BELT OF               
OHIO. THIS IS A MARGINAL EVENT WITH SOMEWHAT LIMITED MOISTURE. NEXT             
SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND IF HEADLINES               
WILL BE NEEDED.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                         
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN...SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE            
GFS BUILDING IT IN SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF AND DIGEX. ATTM WITH THE               
850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING AND AIRMASS DRYING OUT MAY JUST LEAVE               
SOME FLURRIES IN NW PA FOR THURSDAY AM. THE RIDGE STAYS IN CONTROL              
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN THE RIDGE MOVES EAST SATURDAY. MODELS             
IN AGREEMENT WITH THAT. MAY HAVE A 20 POP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE             
FRONT APPROACHES. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A 40-50%                 
CHANCE OF RAIN AND WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. IT               
COULD CHANGE TO OR MIX WITH SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT BUT SO FAR OUT...IF               
THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN THE PCPN MAY NOT SWITCH OVER SO FAST...NO                  
CHANGEOVER ATTM.                                                                
GUID TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD FOR WEDNESDAY BUT MAY                               
BE A LITTLE COOL THURSDAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES            
WARMING AND THE RIDGE BUILDING IN. GUID LOWS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY                
NIGHTS IN THE EASTERN AREAS MIGHT BE TOO HIGH WITH THE FORECAST OF              
SOME SNOW COVER AND WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE I.E. LIGHT WINDS AND NOT            
MUCH CLOUDINESS...LOWERED A LITTLE.                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION(00Z-24Z)...                                                           
CURRENTLY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH A WARM FRONT               
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...AND AN INVERTED TROUGH INTO THE OHIO                    
VALLEY.  RAIN SHIELD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM HAS MADE IT TO THE OHIO                
RIVER.  ALL 3 MODELS (ETA...GFS...AND RUC) MOVE THE LOW INTO WEST               
VIRGINIA BY 12Z.  CURRENT 3 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS HAVE A 3 MB BULLSEYE              
OVER CENTRAL TN WHICH SEEMS RIGHT ON TRACK FOR THE MODELS.                      
EXPECT RAIN SHIELD TO PUSH OVER NORTHEAST OHIO BY 12Z.  LOOKS LIKE              
IT WILL START AS RAIN THEN CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN AS SFC TEMPS DROP            
BELOW FREEZING.  THE OVERRIDING WARM AIR WILL PUSH 2K FOOT TEMPS TO             
AROUND 4 DEGREES C...SO LAYER TOO WARM FOR SNOW REGARDLESS OF SFC               
TEMPS.                                                                          
DONT EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO REACH NW OHIO.  FOR THE NORTHERN LAKESHORE            
COUNTIES LIKE CLE AND ERIE THEY WILL BE ON THE VERY FRINGE OF THE               
PRECIP AND WILL PROBABLY ONLY GET A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF             
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN.                                                             
FOR LOCATIONS LIKE MFD...CAK AND YNG COULD GET AROUND A TENTH OF AN             
INCH OF OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN.  LUCKILY SYSTEM MOVING SO FAST (LOW              
FORECAST TO REACH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY 18Z) FREEZING PRECIP                
WILL BE SHORT LIVED.  EXPECT MOST PRECIP TO BE EAST OF THE FORECAST             
AREA BY 14Z -15Z.                                                               
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.                            
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.OH...FZRA ADVISORY 04Z-12Z MON FOR OHZ020>023-029>033-036-037-                 
038-047.                                                                        
.PA...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA/ADAMS                                                     
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA                                                            
AVIATION...DJB                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO                                         
650 PM EST SUN JAN 22 2006                                                      
.AVIATION(00Z-24Z)...                                                           
CURRENTLY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH A WARM FRONT               
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...AND AN INVERTED TROUGH INTO THE OHIO                    
VALLEY.  RAIN SHIELD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM HAS MADE IT TO THE OHIO                
RIVER.  ALL 3 MODELS (ETA...GFS...AND RUC) MOVE THE LOW INTO WEST               
VIRGINIA BY 12Z.  CURRENT 3 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS HAVE A 3 MB BULLSEYE              
OVER CENTRAL TN WHICH SEEMS RIGHT ON TRACK FOR THE MODELS.                      
EXPECT RAIN SHIELD TO PUSH OVER NORTHEAST OHIO BY 12Z.  LOOKS LIKE              
IT WILL START AS RAIN THEN CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN AS SFC TEMPS DROP            
BELOW FREEZING.  THE OVERRIDING WARM AIR WILL PUSH 2K FOOT TEMPS TO             
AROUND 4 DEGREES C...SO LAYER TOO WARM FOR SNOW REGARDLESS OF SFC               
TEMPS.                                                                          
DONT EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO REACH NW OHIO.  FOR THE NORTHERN LAKESHORE            
COUNTIES LIKE CLE AND ERIE THEY WILL BE ON THE VERY FRINGE OF THE               
PRECIP AND WILL PROBABLY ONLY GET A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF             
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN.                                                             
FOR LOCATIONS LIKE MFD...CAK AND YNG COULD GET AROUND A TENTH OF AN             
INCH OF OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN.  LUCKILY SYSTEM MOVING SO FAST (LOW              
FORECAST TO REACH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY 18Z) FREEZING PRECIP                
WILL BE SHORT LIVED.  EXPECT MOST PRECIP TO BE EAST OF THE FORECAST             
AREA BY 14Z -15Z.                                                               
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.                            
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...                                
INVERTED TROF MOVING UP...THE 12Z MODEL RUN CONTINUES TO BACK OFF ON            
HOW FAR NORTH THE MOISTURE GETS AND KEEPS IT WARM. MODEL RUNS HAVE              
SOME DIFFERENCES WITH MORE WITH NAM AND THAT SEEMS TO FIT THE RADAR             
ATTM. MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW IT SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN/FREEZING             
RAIN MOST OF TONIGHT...SOME SNOW POSSIBLE NORTHWEST PA. WENT WITH A             
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WITH               
TEMPERATURES NEAR 32F AND DEW POINTS LOW. THE RRQ OF THE JET SHOULD             
HELP WITH THE DYNAMICS. WE SHOULD NOT GET A LOT OF EVAPORATIVE                  
COOLING BUT ENOUGH TO GET SOME LOCATIONS NEAR 32F FOR SOME FREEZING             
RAIN. AS THE PCPN STARTS DEW POINTS SHOULD COME UP AND TEMPERATAURES            
JUST DROP A LITTLE. PCPN AMOUNTS INCLUDING RAIN SHOULD BE .10 OR                
LESS. THE GROUND IS NOT THAT WARM SO SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION                    
WILL OCCUR. THIS IS QUICK SHOT OF PCPN AND THE WORSE SHOULD BE OVER             
BY 12Z. GUID MIN TEMPS A LITTLE TOO COOL WITH THE CLOUD                         
COVER...RAISED SOME. LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE LIKE ERIE AND CLE WILL             
HAVE A SE DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND THAT MIGHT HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE            
FREEZING...HOWEVER...SOME SPOTS WILL BE NEAR 32 OR 31F. AMOUNTS                 
ALONG THE LAKESHORE MAY JUST APPROACH .01 OR .02 THUS WITH IT BEING             
LIGHT AND UNCERTAIN WHETHER IT WILL EVEN MAKE IT...NO ADVISORY ALONG            
THE LAKESHORE.                                                                  
RIDGE BUILDS IN QUICKLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN MODELS AGREE WITH             
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH PLENTY OF COLD             
AIR. 850 MB WINDS OF 50 TO 55 KNOTS AND WITH THE LAPSE RATES                    
BECOMING UNSTABLE...NOT MUCH SHEAR AND MOMENTUM TRANSFER FROM BUFKIT            
HAD 40 KNOTS...THE LOW SEEMS FAR ENOUGH NORTH...THE PRESSURE                    
GRADIENT BECOME QUITE STONG BY 18Z TUE. GUSTS IN THE 40 MPH RANGE               
SEEM VERY REASONABLE...ATTM IT WOULD JUST BE AN ADVISORY...DOESN'T              
SEEM STRONG ENOUGH FOR A WIND WATCH ATTM. SOME LAKE EFFECT OR LAKE              
INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT ESPECIALLY              
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LAKE AND 850 MB             
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE APPROACHES 13C. WITH THE NW FLOW THE BEST                
CHANCE FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE INLAND NW PA. A S/WV FOR                   
WEDNESDAY COULD CAUSE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR THE SNOW BELT OF               
OHIO. THIS IS A MARGINAL EVENT WITH SOMEWHAT LIMITED MOISTURE. NEXT             
SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND IF HEADLINES               
WILL BE NEEDED.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                         
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN...SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE            
GFS BUILDING IT IN SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF AND DIGEX. ATTM WITH THE               
850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING AND AIRMASS DRYING OUT MAY JUST LEAVE               
SOME FLURRIES IN NW PA FOR THURSDAY AM. THE RIDGE STAYS IN CONTROL              
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN THE RIDGE MOVES EAST SATURDAY. MODELS             
IN AGREEMENT WITH THAT. MAY HAVE A 20 POP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE             
FRONT APPROACHES. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A 40-50%                 
CHANCE OF RAIN AND WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. IT               
COULD CHANGE TO OR MIX WITH SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT BUT SO FAR OUT...IF               
THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN THE PCPN MAY NOT SWITCH OVER SO FAST...NO                  
CHANGEOVER ATTM.                                                                
GUID TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD FOR WEDNESDAY BUT MAY                               
BE A LITTLE COOL THURSDAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES            
WARMING AND THE RIDGE BUILDING IN. GUID LOWS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY                
NIGHTS IN THE EASTERN AREAS MIGHT BE TOO HIGH WITH THE FORECAST OF              
SOME SNOW COVER AND WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE I.E. LIGHT WINDS AND NOT            
MUCH CLOUDINESS...LOWERED A LITTLE.                                             
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY 04Z-12Z MONDAY                                     
OHZ020>023-029>033-038-047.                                                     
.PA...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA                                                           
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA                                                            
AVIATION...DJB                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK                                               
932 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
RAIN HAS COMPLETELY MOVED OUT OF FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW           
TO VACATE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION. IF RUC IS                   
CORRECT THEY MAY NOT CLEAR WESTERN ARKANSAS UNTIL AFTER 12Z.                    
AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL TODAY WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO PATCHY                
DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT IF SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. THE                  
CLOUDS ARE THE QUESTIONABLE FACTOR AT THIS TIME... AND FOR THAT                 
REASON WILL NOT ISSUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. WILL SEND OUT AN UPDATE               
MAINLY TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING AND ANY REMAINING PRECIP.                      
&&                                                                              
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM FORECASTER ID= 5                                                     
LONG TERM FORECASTER ID= 6                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   ok                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN                                          
1000 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2006                                                     
.DISCUSSION...LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS                  
MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH MIDDLE TN WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS               
SOUTHEAST TN AND THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU COUNTIES AT MID MORNING.                
HIGH POPS LOOK GOOD FOR LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WILL ADD CHANCE             
OF THUNDER WEST AND SLIGHT CHANCE NORTHEAST AS ACTIVITY LIFTS                   
NORTHEAST. LATEST RUC DATA SHOWING VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING NORTH               
ACROSS FORECAST AREA AND LIFT INCREASING LATE MORNING. HEAVIEST RAIN            
LOOKS TO BE IN PLATEAU AREAS AND POSSIBLY WESTERN EDGES OF THE                  
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL VALLEY DURING THE DAY TODAY. TEMPERATURES MAY              
RISE ONLY VERY SLOWLY DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN WHICH IS HANDLED WELL              
IN CURRENT FORECAST. UPDATE OUT SOON TO ADD THUNDER.                            
&&                                                                              
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
TN...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TD                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
952 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING SOUTH                 
TEXAS. BASED ON IR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA...APPEARS BEST                    
ENERGY IS LEAVING THE CWFA. HOWEVER...LATEST RUC DATA IS STILL                  
SHOWING SOME RESPECTABLE Q-G CONVERGENCE OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS                
THIS AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF THIS...HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF                   
THUNDER FOR THE AFTERNOON ALL BUT THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS WHERE                  
THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTAIL UNTIL THE TROUGH GETS CLOSER AND                  
MID LEVEL DRYING MOVES IN. ISENTROPIC PATTERN REALLY DIMINISHES                 
DURING THE AFTERNOON SO EXPECT THAT RAIN WILL HAVE TO BE GENERATED              
BY LARGE-SCALE LIFT. THUS...WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS OVER THE                      
NORTHEAST AND DECREASE THEM FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST FOR THE                      
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. ANY REMNANT RAIN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE OVER                
THE NORTHEAST. AT THIS TIME...PREVIOUS FORECAST SEEMS REASONABLE                
AND THUS DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE PRECIP. MAX TEMP FORECAST              
STILL SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN LARGE MASS OF CLOUDS AND WARMING WILL              
BE VERY SLOW FOR THE AFTERNOON. GRIDDED AND ZFP HAS BEEN SENT.                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 243 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2006)                         
SHORT-TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...COOL...CLOUDY AND WET                       
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF S TX. A SFC LOW DVLPG              
ALONG THE COAST WILL PROVIDE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AS IT               
RIDES NE ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY. A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT               
WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST PER SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL PROVIDE               
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE SUBTROP JET NOSING NE...PLACING THE                
FAVORED LFQ ACROSS S TX BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. THIS WILL ALSO INCREASE            
THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE ABUNDANT                 
MOISTURE IN PLACE COMBINING WITH AFOREMENTIONED DYNAMICS WARRANTS               
THE CHC POPS W TO CATEGORICAL NE WHERE THE HIGHEST MOISTURE AND                 
STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE IN PLACE DUE TO THE SFC LOW.            
AS THE SFC LOW AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXIT TO THE NE THRU THE                
AFTERNOON...RE-INFORCING HIGH PRESSURE/CAA WL FILTER ACROSS S TX IN             
ITS WAKE...WITH DECREASING RAIN CHCS FROM W TO NE. ETA KEEPS                    
MOISTURE/CLOUDS IN PLACE THRU MONDAY WHILE THE GFS IS LESS AGRESSIVE            
WITH THE CLOUD COVER BUT DOES INCREASE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS                
MAKES MON TEMPS A BIT TRICKY. ETA IS COOLER WITH THE CLOUDY                     
CONDITIONS...HOWEVER THE GFS IS WARMER AT THE SFC BUT DOES SHOWS A              
COOLING TREND THROUGHOUT THE AIR COLUMN ON MON. GENERALLY WENT AT OR            
BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS TODAY THRU MON. AS FOR SFC WIND SPEEDS                 
TONIGHT/MONDAY...FEEL THE MODELS ARE TOO LOW GIVEN THE TIGHT                    
GRADIENT THAT IS PROGD BY BOTH THE ETA AND GFS AND THE FCSTD MOD TO             
STRONG BDRY LYR WINDS. WILL KEEP THE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS IN PLACE.               
MARINE...WINDS HAVE LOWERED TO BELOW SCA CONDITIONS THIS MORNING                
AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK TO MODERATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY             
AS A SFC LOW RIDES NE ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL MEAN WIND DIRECTION            
WILL SHIFT AROUND FROM E TO S THEN TO THE N TONIGHT AS A COLD                   
FRONT/RE-INFORCING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS. WIND                 
SPEEDS INCREASE AS WELL TONIGHT WITH SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT            
THROUGH MONDAY.                                                                 
AVIATION...IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z WITH             
LOW CIGS AND INCREASING RAIN CHCS. ISOL TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AS A COLD             
FRONT/RE-INFORCING HIGH PRESSURE BUILD ACROSS S TX THIS AFTERNOON.              
RAIN CHCS DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM W TO NE WITH CIGS            
LIFTING TO ABV 12KFT.                                                           
LONG-TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...A RDG AXIS EXTENDING                
FROM THE SFC TO THE UPR LVLS WL PREVAIL THROUGH WED ACROSS THE CWA.             
HOWEVER CLOUD CVR IS NOT EXPECTED TO TOTALLY ERODE ESPECIALLY THE               
SRN AND WRN AREAS WHERE MID/UPR LVL MOISTURE WL SPILL OVER THE WK               
RDG AXIS ALOFT.  TEMPS WL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO THROUGH             
WED.  BEYOND WED THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE MODEL SOLNS IS WITH THE             
TRACK OF THE UPR LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.  THE                 
CONSENSUS SOLN CONTINUES TO PROG THIS UPR LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH INTO            
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THU AND FRI.  THE GFS REMAINS INCONSISTENT                
FROM RUN TO RUN AND SO WL NOT BITE ON ITS LATEST ITERATION.  GIVEN              
THE EXPECTED NLY TRACK...WL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC              
RANGE FOR THE WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI TIMEFRAME.  ANOTHER PACIFIC                 
SYSTEM MAY APPROACH THE AREA BY SAT BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW                
RIGHT NOW.  SO WL KEEP US DRY FOR NOW WITH A MODEST WARMING TREND.              
&&                                                                              
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GW/86...SHORT-TERM                                                              
JD/91...LONG-TERM                                                               
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
226 AM EST MON JAN 23 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM...MOST OF THE PARAMETERS IN PLACE LAST NIGHT FOR A                  
DECENT DENSE FOG EVENT ARE WITH US ONCE AGAIN...BUT SLIGHT                      
VARIATIONS HAVE PREVENTED ANYTHING MORE THAN PATCHY CONDITIONS AT               
THIS TIME. COMPLEX SCENARIO WITH ADVECTION FOG OVER THE NORTHERN                
COASTAL ZONES WHERE INVERTED TROUGH IS ALLOWING NORTHEAST FLOW TO               
ADVECT SEA FOG ONSHORE LIMITING VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 3/4 OF A                
MILE AT TIMES. FURTHER SOUTH AND INLAND...RADIATION PROCESSES                   
DOMINATE AND SOME FACTORS ARE WORKING AGAINST IT. THE FIRST OF                  
THESE IS MID LEVEL MOISTURE EVIDENCED BY BKN DECK AT 5K OVER A                  
WIDE EXPANSE OF THE FLORIDA PORTION WHICH IS NOT ALLOWING FOR THE               
RAPID COOL DOWN SEEN LAST NIGHT. IN ADDITION...RUC ANALYSIS                     
INDICATES 975MB WINDS HAVE INCREASED ALONG THE COAST AND WILL                   
LIKELY KEEP VISIBILITY MORE IN THE BR RANGE THROUGH DAYBREAK.                   
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG TO                
LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS IN WARM SECTOR AS INCREASING                     
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT MIXES IN SOME DRIER AIR. GFS IS SHOWING A SLUG              
OF MOISTURE WORKING ITS WAY RAPIDLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE                       
AFTERNOON HOURS AND PRODUCES SOME PRECIP ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS             
THIS AFTERNOON. ANYTIME WE GET TEMPS CLOSE TO 80 THIS TIME OF                   
YEAR...SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY MEAGER              
INSTABILITY AND WITHOUT FOCUS FOR CONVERGENCE...CANNOT SEE ANYTHING             
MORE THAN ISOLATED POPS AT THIS TIME. MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN VERY               
GOOD AGREEMENT WRT TIMING OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING BUT THE GFS IS              
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH THE TROUGH AND CONSEQUENTLY HIGHER WITH THE              
POPS. HAVE GENERALLY USED A BLEND WHICH BRINGS PRECIP INTO THE FAR              
WESTERN ZONES RIGHT AT 00Z AND THEN QUICKLY EASTWARD THROUGH 06Z.               
ENOUGH MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN TO WARRANT HIGH END SCATTERED                
POPS...BUT CONVERGENCE IS LACKING AND MAIN LIFTING MECHANISM                    
REMAINS WELL BACK OF FRONTAL BAND OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. WILL               
THEREFORE REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY AS FRONT              
SLIDES OVER THE FLORIDA PORTION WHERE GRIDS WILL ONLY CARRY 30% AT              
BEST.                                                                           
MAIN INSTABILITY INDICATED BY THE MODELS OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON IN               
WARM SECTOR WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY. CAPE QUICKLY DECREASES AFTER                
SUNSET AND WILL ONLY CARRY ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH 06Z AND THEN                
REVERT BACK TO SHOWERS.                                                         
FRONT CLEARS ON TUESDAY EVENING WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING              
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. PENINSULAR FLOW INITIALLY WILL               
ALLOW FOR GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION...BUT WITH PARENT HIGH DISPLACED              
SO FAR WEST...EXPECT COOL DOWN ONLY TO AROUND CLIMO. LOW                        
TEMPERATURES FROM GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS                  
HAVE COME UP SLIGHTLY AND WILL ADJUST GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS.                    
.LONG TERM...NO EARTH SHATTERING CHANGES TO MOST RECENT MEX AND                 
HAVE GENERALLY BLENDED WITH FORECAST ALREADY IN PLACE. NEXT FRONT               
NOT TO AFFECT THE AREA UNTIL NEXT MONDAY AND SETUP LOOKS VERY                   
SIMILAR TO TONIGHTS WITH LIMITED DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH.                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...A Q-STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER THE NRN MARINE                      
ZONES AT THIS TIME WITH A NE FLOW ~8-10 KT AT 41008 AND SE FLOW AT              
41012. SEAS CONTINUE AROUND 5 FT AT BOTH BUOYS AND MAIN COMPONENT OF            
SEAS IS A 10 SECOND SWELL AROUND 3-4 FT. BASED ON BUOY TRENDS...WE              
MAY BE SEEING THE PEAK IN THE SWELL HEIGHTS AT THIS TIME OR WITHIN              
THE NEXT 12 HRS. AS FRONT LIFTS NWD...INCREASING SLY FLOW OCCURS                
PUSHING UP WIND WAVE HEIGHTS ABOVE CURRENTLY OBSERVED VALUES.                   
HEADLINES IN PLACE LOOK FINE WITH JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. HAVE                  
EXTENDED ADVISORY THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. LATEST WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IS           
AGAIN TOO HIGH BY ABOUT 2 FT AT 41012 (ALTHOUGH VERY CLOSE AT 41008)            
AND SO HAVE CONSERVATIVELY TWEAKED HEIGHTS DOWN BY 10-15%. MAY TWEAK            
DOWN FURTHER WITH ADDITIONAL OBS THIS AM. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE                 
TUE...WINDS SHIFT TO NW UP TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS VEER FROM NLY WED           
TO ELY BY FRI AS HIGH TO OUR N SLIDES E.                                        
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA ON WED WITH                
MIN RH AROUND 30% OVER FL ZONES. ANTICIPATE THAT A FIRE WX WATCH MAY            
BE REQUIRED FOR THE FL ZONES LATER TODAY OR TUE.                                
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
AMG  74  55  68  40 /  40  50  10   0                                           
SSI  73  57  68  43 /  30  40  30   0                                           
JAX  77  58  71  43 /  20  30  30   0                                           
SGJ  76  60  71  45 /  20  30  30   0                                           
GNV  79  57  73  42 /  20  20  20   0                                           
OCF  81  58  74  45 /  20  10  20   0                                           
&&                                                                              
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY             
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: FERNANDINA BEACH FL TO FLAGLER BEACH              
     FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.                                                
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 6              
     PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AND ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO               
     FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.                               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC...DEESE                                                                  
MARINE/FIRE WX...SHASHY                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                              
225 AM CST MON JAN 23 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
STRATUS AND HAZE PUSHING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CWA ATTM. NEXT                
UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND ACROSS NEBRASKA                
MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE LOW 30S WHERE               
STRATUS HAS MOVED IN...WITH THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN FRINGES                    
DROPPING INTO THE 20S BEFORE THE CLOUDS ROLLED IN.                              
MAIN ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE HOW LONG CLOUDS WILL PERSIST AND                   
AFFECT ON TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL REMAINS JUST                
TO THE NORTH WITH LIGHT SE WINDS AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THE 500M                
LEVEL PER PROFILERS. 06Z RUC AND ETA12 LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS SUGGEST              
STRATUS IS IN PLACE UNTIL THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE CAN INCREASE                   
WESTERLY FLOW AND BEGIN TO PUSH THE CLOUDS OUT. WILL HAVE CLOUD                 
COVER INTO THE NOON HOUR...THEN BEGIN TO DRAW CLOUDS EASTWARD                   
THROUGH 0Z. AS A RESULT...WESTERN ZONES MIGHT BE ABLE TO MAKE 50                
AS SKIES CLEAR...BUT EASTERN AREAS WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK MID 40S.              
THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW AND DRIER AIR TO                 
KEEP FOG FROM FORMING OVERNIGHT.                                                
TUES/WED STILL SHOWING A GOOD WARMUP AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT                    
SLOWLY TRANSITIONS TO AN UPPER RIDGE BY LATE WEDNESDAY. ETA IS A                
BIT WEAKER WITH THE RIDGING...KEEPS WINDS ALOFT A SMIDGE                        
HIGHER....AND 850MB TEMPS HIGHER AND AS A RESULT GIVES WARMER                   
SURFACE TEMPS. CURRENT GRIDS GENERALLY REFLECT A MIX TO 900MB                   
WITH GFS PROFILE.                                                               
FOR THURS...0Z GFS COMING AROUND TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF LIFTING THE           
SOUTHWESTERN LOW ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KS INSTEAD OF PREVIOUS              
SOUTHERLY TRACK. THIS WOULD KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA                
AND POSSIBLY EVEN BRING IN DRIER AIR AROUND THE BASE OF THE SYSTEM              
INTO THE CWA LATE THURS. FOR THE AFTERNOON...GUIDANCE STILL GIVING A ROUND OF   
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM WITH DIV Q AND                        
DIFLUENCE ALOFT IN PLACE AS WELL AS ENOUGH TIME TO DRAW IN SOME                 
INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. MIGHT BE MORE RAIN THAN SNOW ON              
THIS TRACK. ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR FRI-SUN.                           
&&                                                                              
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
67                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
429 AM EST MON JAN 23 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT                                                 
AT THE SURFACE...MODELS SHOW GOOD CONSENSUS IN BUILDING RIDGE                   
ACROSS FORECAST AREA TODAY BEHIND WEAK TROUGH...QUICKLY GIVING WAY              
TONIGHT TO VERY BRISK SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.                     
BUFKIT...BOTH FROM NAM AND GFS DATA...SUPPORTS GALE FORCE GUSTS                 
OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON WITHIN THE MIXING LAYER BY LATE              
TONIGHT AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS THAT               
ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD INTO GALES THERE TUESDAY AS WELL. AT 500                   
MB...VORTICITY LOBE...READILY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE              
WESTERN GREAT LAKES...EXPECTED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE AREA                       
TODAY...THEN WESTERN CANADIAN TROUGH SHOWN BY MODELS RACING                     
SOUTHEAST AND DIGGING INTO LAKES REGION LATE TONIGHT.                           
MOISTURE ALOFT RATHER LEAN TODAY AND NOT MUCH TONIGHT EITHER...WITH             
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE MORE PLENTIFUL OVERALL ESPECIALLY NORTH.                   
LITTLE TO NO OMEGA LIFT IN LOW TO MID LEVELS SEEN TODAY...BECOMING              
VERY MODESTLY BETTER LATE TONIGHT AS NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES.                    
LOW TO MID LEVEL QVECTOR CONVERGENCE BECOMES GOOD LATE TONIGHT AND              
SURFACE CONVERGENCE BECOMES SLIGHT...WITH APPROACHING LOW TO MID                
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WITH APPROACH OF LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET.             
ALSO...285K NAM/GFS SHOW GOOD SHOT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT TONIGHT BUT               
GENERALLY HIGH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS. IN LIGHT OF PAUCITY              
OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL HOLD OFF ON PRECIPITATION MENTION               
THROUGH TONIGHT...SUPPORTED BY MODEL LITTLE OR NO QPF.                          
ENOUGH THINNING OF MID CLOUD CANOPY OVERNIGHT IN SPOTS...WITH LIGHT             
WI8NDS...HAS FAVORED FORMATION OF FOG. WILL MENTION PATCHY FOG UNTIL            
MID MORNING.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY                                             
STRONG WINDS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS AN ARCTIC SYSTEM SLIDES ACROSS              
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A 120KT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL DIG ACROSS THE             
MIDWEST WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO INTO               
QUEBEC DURING THE DAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE               
AREA ALL DAY WITH A NUMBER OF SURFACE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH. IT                
APPEARS THE FIRST ONE WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE              
NEXT BRINGING THE REAL COLD PUSH AND WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST DURING              
THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND ONE FINAL PUSH IN THE EVENING AS THE LOW              
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT OVER THE                
PAST SEVERAL DAYS SHOWING 850MB WINDS OF 50-60 KNOTS. MIXING HEIGHTS            
SHOULD CLIMB TO ABOUT 7000 FEET AS COLD AIR ADVECTION STARTS BY                 
MID-MORNING...ALLOWING US TO TAP INTO STRONG WINDS OFF THE SURFACE.             
AM EXPECTING TO NEED AT LEAST A WIND ADVISORY FOR TUESDAY WITH                  
SURFACE WINDS GUSTING TO 45 MPH. WE MAY EVEN BE BORDERING ON NEEDING            
A HIGH WIND WARNING IF WE ARE ABLE TO BRING THE 50 KNOT WINDS ALOFT             
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. CURRENT MODELS INDICATE THE STRONGEST FRONTAL              
PUSH SETTING UP FROM WISCONSIN...ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...TO             
NORTHERN INDIANA. THE WINDS APPEAR TO BE MORE PARALLEL TO THE                   
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN REDUCING THE MOMENTUM                 
TRANSFER DOWN TO THE SURFACE...POSSIBLY LIMITING THE POTENTIAL TO               
ACHIEVE THOSE 50 KNOT GUSTS.                                                    
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION              
ON TUESDAY. BOTH NAM AND GFS INDICATE A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE               
WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OF 3 G/KG. ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE                
EXPECTED WITH ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL DOING A LOT OF BLOWING                    
...POSSIBLY CAUSING SOME RESTRICTION TO VISIBILITIES. LAKE EFFECT               
SNOW OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN IN CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PICK UP               
TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE                
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH INSTABILITY DECREASING OVER THE                   
LAKES.                                                                          
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE AREA BRINGING            
A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY FOR THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL WITH RETURN             
FLOW NOT INCREASING UNTIL LATE THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH                     
SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL BY                   
FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.                                           
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WILL                   
OPEN AND TRACK TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.                  
18Z/22 AND 00Z/23 GFS TOOK A BIG JUMP FROM THE 12Z SOLUTION                     
TOWARDS THE ECMWF/GEM WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY.              
HAVE CONTINUED DRY FORECAST FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SYSTEM                     
WEAKENING AS IT PASSES NORTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...NEXT                  
SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE NEED TO ADD POPS AS MODELS CONTINUE              
TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEM.                                          
&&                                                                              
MARINE...                                                                       
WITH ARCTIC SURGE ON TUESDAY...MODELS STILL SUPPORT A TIGHTENING                
THERMAL/PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION            
IN BEHIND THE FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW VERY STRONG WINDS               
OFF THE SURFACE TO MIX DOWN. GALES ARE EXPECTED ON ALL MARINE AREAS             
BY TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME             
CHANCE OF STORM FORCE GUSTS IN THE MAIN PRESSURE SURGE IN BEHIND THE            
COLD FRONT ON TUE. WITH THE BEST SURGE FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN             
PORTION OF THE AREA...OR PERHAPS JUST PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL               
MAINTAIN THE CURRENT GALES WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS.                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...ISSUED 1151 PM EST SUN JAN 22 2006                                  
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR HAS AN ASSOCIATED               
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN. AN MVFR               
STRATUS DECK EXTENDS ALONG AND BEHIND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS                 
THE FRONT HEADS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...IT WILL CONTINUE              
TO WEAKEN. THUS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO                
WANE. THIS IS RESULTING IN A VERY SLOW EASTWARD PUSH TO THE LOW                 
CLOUDS. BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM SATELLITE DATA AND THE 00Z NAM              
AND RUC MODEL RH PROGS...THE STRATUS SHOULD ADVANCE ACROSS THE                  
SAGINAW VALLEY AND FLINT AREA BETWEEN 08Z AND 11Z. FROM                         
SATELLITE...IT APPEARS THE MID AND HIGH DECK WILL EXIT TO THE EAST              
JUST PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOW CLOUDS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN               
SOME FOG ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MI. FOG WILL BE MORE LIKELY AT                  
MBS. BASED ON 00Z MODEL SOUNDINGS AND GIVEN EXTRAPOLATION FROM                  
SATELLITE...THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD NOT ARRIVE IN THE DETROIT AREA                
UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK. THE ONSET OF MIXING AND BUILDING SURFACE                  
RIDGE SHOULD PREVENT A SOLID BROKEN OR OVERCAST DECK FROM REACHING              
THE DETROIT AREA MONDAY MORNING.                                                
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING...LHZ462-LHZ463-LHZ464...1 AM TUESDAY TO 10 AM        
     WEDNESDAY.                                                                 
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LHZ421...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT H
     TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY.                                                   
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS...LHZ422...1 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM             
     TUESDAY.                                                                   
LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LCZ460...1 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY.   
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LEZ444...1 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM TU
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...DWD                                                                
LONG TERM....KAHL                                                               
AVIATION...SC                                                                   
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
340 AM EST MON JAN 23 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SHRTWV MOVING THRU            
THE UPR GRT LKS EMBEDDED WITHIN WNW POLAR JET STREAM FM SW CAN TO               
NEW ENGLAND...WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LO MOVING INTO SE ONTARIO FM LK               
SUP. THIS SYS REMAINS CUTOFF FM DEEP MSTR BY ACTIVE SRN BRANCH ACRS             
THE SRN CONUS...AND DEEP ARCTIC REMAINS LOCKED UP WELL TO THE N IN              
CAN ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF ARCTIC BRANCH FLOW THERE. LIMITED DEEPER            
MSTR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV/SFC LO HAS SHIFTED TO THE E...                  
LEAVING LINGERING LO CLD ACRS THE FA. ALTHOUGH NW PUSH OF COLDER AIR            
BEHIND THE LO PRES TO THE E AND IN ADVANCE OF HI PRES RDG MOVING                
TOWARD WRN LK SUP IS NOT VERY STRG...00Z TAMDAR SDNG FM DLH/00Z RAOB            
FM INL INDICATE AIR MOVING INTO WRN LK SUP IS SUFFICIENTLY COLD TO              
GENERATE LES WITH TEMPS AS LO AS -13C OR SO WITHIN MOIST LYR OBSVD              
TO EXTEND UP TO H8-775. BUT INCOMING COLD AIR IS ON THE SHALLOW                 
SIDE...WITH BOTH SDNGS SHOWING AN INVRN H925-9. EVEN SO...-SHSN HAVE            
BROKEN OUT OVER THE NW ZNS AS OF MIDNGT. SKIES CLR OVER NRN MN/FAR              
NW WI UNDER AND JUST W OF INCOMING RDG AXIS... AND TEMPS HAVE FALLEN            
BLO ZERO IN AREAS WHERE WINDS ARE LGT. BUT SW FLOW ALREADY NOTED                
OVER THE NRN PLAINS/SCNTRL CAN ON THE BACK SIDE OF RDG/DOWNSTREAM OF            
NEXT SHRTWV PLOWING INTO WRN CAN FM THE PACIFIC. ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH              
CLD NOTED OVER THE NRN PLAINS WITH DRY MID LVLS SHOWN ON THE 00Z BIS            
SDNG...QUITE A BIT MORE WAD CLD EVIDENT ACRS SCNTRL CAN WHERE 00Z               
YQD SDNG IS MOIST UP TO H45. BUT ONLY PCPN FALLING EARLY THIS MRNG              
IS OVER NRN LK WINNIPEG AND FARTHER N.                                          
MAIN FCST CONCERNS TDAY ARE LES TRENDS AND TEMPS. FOCUS FOR TNGT                
INTO WED SHIFTS TO IMPACT OF STRG PACIFIC SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO WRN            
CAN AND NEED FOR HEADLINES TO COVER EXPECTED STRG WINDS AND AT LEAST            
SOME LES/BLSN.                                                                  
FOR TDAY...SHRTWV/SFC LO NOW IMPACTING THE FA PROGGED TO MOVE                   
QUICKLY E INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND WEAKEN...GIVING WAY TO RDG AXIS/              
MID LVL DRY AIR UPSTREAM. LINGERING LES OVER THE KEEWENAW AND THE               
ERN ZNS SHOULD END THIS MRNG WITH ARRIVAL/PASSAGE OF SFC RDG AXIS               
AND LLVL THERMAL TROF. LO INVRN HGT/MARGINAL INSTABILITY/LIMITED                
DURATION OF CAD AND QUICKLY SHIFTING WINDS SHOULD LIMIT LES                     
ACCUMULATIONS TO NO MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO. EXPECT SKIES                      
EVERYWHERE TO BECOME PARTLY-MOSUNNY WITH APRCH/ARRIVAL OF RDG                   
AXIS...BUT SOME MID/HI CLD NOW OVER SCNTRL CAN WL RETURN IN THE AFTN            
IN ADVANCE OF POTENT CLIPPER SHRTWV FCST TO DIG NEAR LK WINNIPEG BY             
00Z. MIXING TO H925 AS OBSVD YDAY UPSTREAM AT BIS ON GFS FCST SDNGS             
YIELDS TMAX CLOSER TO LO END OF MOS GUIDANCE.                                   
TNGT...STRG CLIPPER SHRTWV FCST TO DIG INTO ONTARIO BY 12Z TUE AND              
THEN QUEBEC TUE NGT. PER NCEP PREFERENCE...USED THE SOMEWHAT FARTHER            
N TRACK OF THE NAM/CNDN/UKMET MODELS FOR SFC LO TRACK THRU ONTARIO N            
OF LK SUP. GFS SHOWS SFC LO TRACKING ACRS THE NRN PART OF THE LK                
(EVEN THOUGH H5 FEATURES ARE QUITE SIMILAR BTWN THE MODELS). ALL                
GUIDANCE SHOWS COMMA TAIL DEEPER MSTR/UPR DVGC IN LEFT EXIT OF                  
SUPPORTING 120KT H3 JET MAX/SHARP DEEP LYR H85-3 QVECTOR CNVGC                  
TRACKING ACRS THE FA DURING THE NGT. ALTHOUGH SYS IS CUTOFF FM ANY              
MSTR INFLOW...HAVE TO BELIEVE THESE DYNAMICS (RESULTING IN 200M 12HR            
H5 HGT FALL OVER NRN LK SUP BTWN 00Z-12Z TUE) WL SQUEEZE OUT                    
MEASUREABLE PCPN OVER MUCH OF THE FA CONSIDERING THE MOIST PROFILE              
SHOWN ON THE 00Z YQD SDNG. H85 TEMPS FCST IN THE -7C RANGE...                   
SUFFICIENTLY COLD FOR ENHANCEMENT (CONSIDERING LK WATER TEMPS 3-4C).            
DESPITE THEIR DIFFERENCES IN SFC LO PLACEMENT...GFS/NAM ALSO SIMILAR            
IN SATURATING THE COLUMN OVER THE ERN ZNS TO A GREATER DEGREE. SO WL            
BUMP UP POPS TO LIKELY OVER THE EXPOSED/UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE W FM               
ONTONAGON THRU THE KEWEENAW AND E OF MQT EVEN THOUGH PCPN MAY BE                
LIKELY ONLY WHEN THE DEEPER COMMA TAIL MSTR PASSES OVHD. JUST LO CHC            
POPS ACRS THE SCNTRL FARTHER FM CLIPPER TRACK AND WHERE FLOW WL BE              
DOWNSLOPING. NAM SHOWS H85 WNW WINDS INCRSG OVER 50KTS DURING THE               
NGT. ALTHOUGH SGNFT LLVL CAD APPEARS UNLIKELY DUE TO ABSENCE OF                 
ARCTIC AIR IN USPTREAM AREAS...RELATIVELY WARM LLVLS ESPECIALLY                 
DOWNSTREAM OF LK SUP INCRS LAPSE RATES ON FCST NAM SDNGS AND THE                
CHCS THE STRG MOMENTUM WL REACH THE SFC. SINCE ISALLOBARIC WIND ALSO            
FVRBLY ALIGNED WITH THE GRADIENT FLOW...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER            
STORM WATCH INTO TUE NGT FOR THE EXPOSED COUNTIES OF THE NW AND E OF            
MQT. DON'T THINK LES AMTS WL GET TOO HEFTY WITH STRG WINDS POSSIBLY             
DISRUPTING BANDS AND H85 TEMPS FCST TO FALL NO LOWER THAN -12C OR               
-13C...BUT COMBINATION OF STRG WINDS AND LES/BLSN (EVEN IF                      
INDIVIDUAL CRITERIA WL END UP BEING JUST ADVYS) COULD JUSTIFY A                 
WATCH/WRNG ESPECIALLY IF SHARPER CYC FLOW (ON TUE/TUE NGT) CAN ACT              
AS AN ENHANCEMENT MECHANISM. TOYED WITH INCLUDING BARAGA/SRN CMX/               
IRON/GOGEBIC/SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES IN WINTER STORM WATCH AND                 
INLAND ZNS IN HI WIND WATCH BUT 06Z NAM SHOWED WEAKER WINDS THAN 00Z            
RUN AND/OR WINDS A BIT TOO WNW.                                                 
COORDINATED WITH APX/GRB/DLH.                                                   
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER STORM WATCH LATE TNGT-TUE NGT MIZ001>MIZ003                              
WINTER STORM WATCH TUE-TUE NGT MIZ006-007-085.                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KC                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1151 PM EST SUN JAN 22 2006                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR HAS AN ASSOCIATED               
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN. AN MVFR               
STRATUS DECK EXTENDS ALONG AND BEHIND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS                 
THE FRONT HEADS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...IT WILL CONTINUE              
TO WEAKEN. THUS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO                
WANE. THIS IS RESULTING IN A VERY SLOW EASTWARD PUSH TO THE LOW                 
CLOUDS. BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM SATELLITE DATA AND THE 00Z NAM              
AND RUC MODEL RH PROGS...THE STRATUS SHOULD ADVANCE ACROSS THE                  
SAGINAW VALLEY AND FLINT AREA BETWEEN 08Z AND 11Z. FROM                         
SATELLITE...IT APPEARS THE MID AND HIGH DECK WILL EXIT TO THE EAST              
JUST PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOW CLOUDS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN               
SOME FOG ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MI. FOG WILL BE MORE LIKELY AT                  
MBS. BASED ON 00Z MODEL SOUNDINGS AND GIVEN EXTRAPOLATION FROM                  
SATELLITE...THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD NOT ARRIVE IN THE DETROIT AREA                
UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK. THE ONSET OF MIXING AND BUILDING SURFACE                  
RIDGE SHOULD PREVENT A SOLID BROKEN OR OVERCAST DECK FROM REACHING              
THE DETROIT AREA MONDAY MORNING.                                                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 924 PM EST SUN JAN 22 2006                            
UPDATE...                                                                       
THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING WAS EXTREMELY DRY BELOW 700MB...WITH                       
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS IN EXCESS OF 30 DEG. THE 00Z UPPER AIR PLOTS               
SHOWED THE STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT OVER SOUTHERN OHIO/INDIANA.                 
BASED ON 18Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND GIVEN THE              
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR OVER SE MICHIGAN...PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN WELL                  
SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE. WILL THEREFORE REMOVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE                 
OF SNOW FOR MONROE COUNTY. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMING              
NORTHWARD FROM THE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD KEEP TEMPS                
FROM DROPPING OFF TOO MUCH TONIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST THUS LOOKS                 
GOOD. SOME BREAKS IN THE HIGH CLOUDS TO THE NORTH MAY ALLOW ENOUGH              
TIME FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING TO DEVELOP SOME FOG. DO NOT SEE               
THIS BEING ANYTHING MORE THAN PATCHY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DRY                 
AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER OBSERVED ON THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING. SO                  
OTHER THAN THE REMOVE OF POPS FROM MONROE...NO MAJOR CHANGES                    
PLANNED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.                                                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 241 PM EST SUN JAN 22 2006                            
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY                                                 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A BROAD POSITIVELY TITLED UPPER LEVEL             
TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN MINNESOTA EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN            
CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER...THE FLOW OVER EASTERN TEXAS LOOKED TO BE                  
ALMOST DUE SOUTH TO NORTH...WITH PRECIPITATION REACHING INTO                    
SOUTHERN MISSOURI. STRONG WESTERLIES/CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE                    
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES SHOULD SUPPRESS PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTHEAST             
TONIGHT...AS INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO NUDGE INTO THE              
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY MODELS ARE INDICATING THE            
SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT/PRECIP SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA...DECIDED TO                
MENTION A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MONROE COUNTY TONIGHT.                
MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA               
WILL TRACK INTO ONTARIO...CAUSING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO SLIDE INTO               
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TOMORROW MORNING. WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE                    
ADVECTION OVER THE SNOWPACK (NORTH OF I-69) SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOW                
CLOUDS AND FOG TO OVERSPREAD THE TRI-CITIES AND THUMB REGION BY                 
TOMORROW MORNING. LIKE LAST NIGHT...WOULD EXPECT TEMPS TO TAKE A QUICK          
NOSE DIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WHERE THERE WILL                
ONLY BE A THIN/HIGH OVERCAST THIS EVENING. CURRENT DEW POINTS ARE               
IN THE MID 20S. MINS SHOULD FALL ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW THOSE                    
VALUES. WITH 850 MB THERMAL TROUGH MOVING IN DURING MONDAY AND                  
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED...WILL KEEP MAXES IN THE                 
30S ONCE AGAIN.                                                                 
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY                                         
THE FIRST CHALLENGE OF THE FORECAST WILL BE TIMING OUR BRIEF ARCTIC             
SURGE IN AND OUT OF THE AREA. TRENDS...AS WOULD BE EXPECTED...ARE               
FOR THE COLD AIR (AT LEAST A PIECE OF IT) TO COME IN TUESDAY MORNING            
WITH THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR FUNNELING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT             
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. SHAVED A FEW DEGREES OFF THE HIGH TEMPERATURES            
ACROSS THE NORTH OF TUESDAY...BUT STILL EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL READINGS            
EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA (LOW/MID 30S NORTH TO NEAR              
40 SOUTH).                                                                      
MODELS VARY ON HOW QUICKLY THIS AIR SHIFTS THROUGH THE AREA...BUT IN            
ALL SOLUTIONS...IT IS RELATIVELY QUICKLY. EITHER RETURN FLOW SETS IN            
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL MAKE THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY            
A BIT TROUBLESOME AS THE TIMING OF THE RETURN FLOW WILL DETERMINE IF            
THE AREA CLIMBS BACK TO NEAR 40 (AT LEAST SOUTH OF THE SNOW FIELD)              
ON A MILD WEST/SOUTHWEST BREEZE...OR WHETHER WE GET STUCK CLOSER TO             
FREEZING. MIDSHIFT LOWER TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES...AND PLAN ON             
LEAVING THEM AS IS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. WITH A GOOD SNOWPACK OVER             
THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE CWA...SIGNIFICANT MODERATION MAY BE HARD TO             
COME BY IN ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTH.                                               
WITH THIS SURGE OF COLD AIR...THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW RETURNS TO              
THE FORECAST...MAINLY IN THE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME. AT                
THIS POINT...THE MAIN EMPHASIS FOR SNOW WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF THE             
AREA. AMONGST THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN               
BRINGING MEASURABLE SNOW TO THE AREA...BUT EVEN IT KEEPS TOTALS AT              
AN INCH OR LESS. WILL MAINTAIN THE 30-40% CHANCE OF SNOW AT THIS                
POINT...WITH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN               
NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT REGIME.                                              
THE FORECAST HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND IS THE SECOND CHALLENGE AS A              
GENERAL MODERATING TREND IS EXPECTED AS THIS COLD CORE SHIFTS EAST.             
TWO MAIN SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO IMPACT THE AREA BY THIS TIME             
AS FIRST...AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF CUTOFF OFF OVER             
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/BAJA EJECTS INTO THIS GENERAL VICINITY...AND                
THEN A MORE IMPORTANT PACIFIC SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE                
CONUS AND COMES THIS WAY. WITH THE CONSENSUS OF MODELS TAKING THE               
FIRST SYSTEM TO OUR NORTHWEST...AND FOR THE SIMPLE FACT THAT IT IS              
VERY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST THE EVOLUTION OF THESE CUTOFF LOWS...WILL            
KEEP FRIDAY DRY ATTM. TIMING/POSITION OF THE NEXT SYSTEM IS HIGHLY              
IN QUESTION GIVEN IT IS A DAY 6-7 FORECAST. AFTER COORDINATION WITH             
SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL ADD THE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION TO ONLY             
SUNDAY TO BRING ATTENTION TO THE FACT THAT ANOTHER WEATHER MAKER IS             
EXPECTED SOMETIME TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.                        
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WILL MODERATE HIGHS BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S TO            
LOWER 40S IN THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY TIMEFRAME AND LEAVE IT AT THAT GIVEN             
THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS.                                                 
MARINE...                                                                       
WITH ARCTIC SURGE ON TUESDAY...MODELS STILL SUPPORT A TIGHTENING                
THERMAL/PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. WITH STRONG COLD AIR                 
ADVECTION IN BEHIND THE FAST MOVING COLD FRONT...GALES REMAIN A                 
SIGNIFICANT CONCERN ON TUESDAY...WITH SOME CHANCE OF STORM FORCE                
WINDS IN THE MAIN PRESSURE SURGE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON TUE.               
WITH THE BEST SURGE FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE                 
AREA...OR PERHAPS JUST SOUTH...WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT GALES (W/              
GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS ON THE OPEN WATERS & 40 KNOTS IN THE NEARSHORE).              
SOMETHING TO WATCH.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...SF                                                                 
LONG TERM....DG                                                                 
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
320 AM CST MON JAN 23 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT                                     
FORECAST PROBLEM THIS MORNING IS THE STATUS CLOUD TRENDS TO OUR                 
SOUTH AND RECOVERY OF TEMPERATURES TODAY. EDGE HAS STARTED TO MOVE              
NORTHEAST AND WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO FAR SOUTHERN MN THIS MORNING.               
LOOKING AT LATEST RUC..SOME OF THIS WILL MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER INTO             
THE CWA BUT MAINLY SW WINDS WILL LIMIT THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT                   
SOMEWHAT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE NORTH CWA LATER. BOTH             
GFS AND NAM SHOW SOME FAIRLY STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT PUSHING ACROSS N            
MN AND EVENTUALLY INTO WI. LOOKS LIKE A SHORT TIME WHERE THERE COULD            
BE SOME LIGHT SNOW NE CWA. OTHERWISE..GFS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUNS              
BRINGING STRONG UPPER JET INTO STATE ALONG WITH COLD ADVECTION.                 
STRONGEST PRES RISES ARE CONFINED TO NORTHERN MN THOUGH. WILL PLACE             
THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MN UNDER THE MID LEVEL DRYING            
AND STRONGEST LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. A LITTLE EARLY FOR                      
ADVISORIES..IN THIRD PERIOD AND NARROWING BEST AREA...SO WILL                   
CONTINUE THE HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.  PRECIP CHANCE IS STILL SLIM ON              
TUESDAY..AND SHOULD BE ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF UPPER JET..MAINLY IN             
WI. TEMPS TODAY MAY BE HELD DOWN BELOW GUID IN A FEW SPOTS DUE TO               
CLOUDS LATER AND STARTING OUT RATHER COLD.                                      
LONGER TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY                                           
THE LATEST GFSLR AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS LATE                   
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR 500 MB HEIGHTS AND SURFACE PRESSURES. THESE             
MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW A PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING ACROSS                    
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN FRIDAY MORNING. THE              
GFS MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH            
THIS TROUGH WILL BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND HAVE ALTERED THE FORECAST             
SCENARIO ACCORDINGLY. THE GFSLR MODEL SHOWS ZONAL PACIFIC FLOW                  
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH WEAK...FAST MOVING SHORT WAVES PASSING OVER            
THE AREA EACH DAY. THE FORECAST UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOES NOT FAVOR A            
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FROM EITHER SHORT WAVE.                     
RELATIVELY MILD AIR IS FORECAST OVER OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE               
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND ZERO TO PLUS 2                 
DEGREES.                                                                        
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JPR/WH                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE                                            
413 AM CST MON JAN 23 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...MAIN CONCERNS ARE FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THIS     
MORNING AND THEN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.              
DENSE FREEZING FOG HAS SPREAD STEADILY WEST INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF            
THE CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT 0930Z THE FOG AND STRATUS WERE                    
GENERALLY CONFINED TO AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. SURFACE OBS AND                
SEVERAL CALLS AROUND THE AREA REVEAL VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/4 MILE AND            
HAVE THUS ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 14Z. RUC BOUNDARY                 
LAYER RH HAS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS EVENT THROUGH THE NIGHT AND              
THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS FOLLOWS ITS LEAD. BELIEVE              
THAT WESTERN EDGE OF FOG WILL NOSE SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST BETWEEN 10             
AND 12Z...BEFORE RAPIDLY RETREATING EAST BY 15Z AS SURFACE WINDS                
TURN WEST IN RESPONSE TO UPPER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE                 
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.                                                  
AFTER FOG AND STRATUS CLEAR OUT THIS MORNING...SHOULD SEE A MILD DAY            
WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND AMPLE SUNSHINE PUSHING TEMPS TO               
AROUND 50F. WINDS COULD GET A LITTLE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH                 
GOOD MIXING. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA THIS                    
AFTERNOON ON A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND LIMIT HEATING POTENTIAL                 
SOMEWHAT.                                                                       
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE MIGRATES SLOWLY EAST THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH                   
RISING HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIME. SOME SLIGHTLY                
COOLER AIR TRIES TO BACK IN FROM THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY...BUT                 
ATTM LOOKS LIKE THIS COOLER AIR WILL STAY JUST NORTHEAST OF THE                 
CWA AND HAVE THUS KEPT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON                     
TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY AS RIDGE AXIS                      
TRAVERSES ACROSS THE PLAINS.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ041-NEZ048-          
     NEZ049-NEZ062-NEZ063-NEZ064-NEZ075-NEZ076-NEZ077-NEZ085-                   
     NEZ086-NEZ087.                                                             
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ006-KSZ007-          
     KSZ019.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KB                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ne                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
445 AM EST MON JAN 23 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST OFF               
THE S COAST WILL MOVE N TODAY AS A WARM FRONT. THE OVERRUNNING                  
STRATIFORM RAIN THAT DEVELOPED SUNDAY WILL LINGER FOR A FEW MORE                
HOURS INTO THE MORNING HOURS...WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND                 
PATCHY FOG. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE S AS THE FRONT PUSHES              
N...WITH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO CLIMB. ACCORDING TO FCST               
SOUNDINGS...IT LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE LATE MORNING BEFORE THE                   
COASTAL PLAINS BEGIN TO MIX OUT AND GRADUALLY BECOME UNSTABLE SO                
EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS (AND PERIODS OF DRIZZLE) AND COOLEST TEMPS IN             
THAT AREA. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY EAST               
NEAR THE OUTER BANKS WILL KEEP A HIGHER CHANCE POP THERE THIS                   
MORNING. THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG OF THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT              
AFTER 900 AM EAST...BUT SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BROKEN THROUGH             
THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL STILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO                
UPPER 60S WITH THE AREA BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE BY LATE THIS                     
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LVL TROF WILL SWING BY THE AREA FROM THE                    
NW...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE PRECIP WILL                
START IN THE W...WITH A CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR LATE               
TODAY. THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE WELL TO THE N...HOWEVER THE WAA                
TODAY COULD MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER LIKELY              
RW AND ISOLD TSRA TONIGHT...THOUGH TSRA COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE              
MINIMAL.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...TEMPS WILL COOL ON TUE                    
BEHIND THE FROPA...WITH NW FLOW SETTING UP. HIGH PRES WILL SLOWLY               
BUILD E TOWARDS THE REGION TUE WITH COOL AND DRY AIR WITH IT.                   
NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL DROP TO AROUND FREEZING...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS               
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THE HIGH WILL KEEP MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR                  
SKIES THROUGH FRI. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE SUN NT/MON AS A              
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE W.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL CONTINUE OVER AREA              
UNTIL BETWEEN 12 AND 15Z...THEN EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO                 
MAINLY VFR VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTN AS WARM                
FRONT JUMPS INLAND. CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR/MVFR THIS                   
EVENING AS SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MOVE IN WITH COLD FRONT.                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...WINDS HAVE BECOME S TO SW OVER NRN SECTIONS DUE TO WEAK               
SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG VA CAPES. RUC AND ETA12 APPEAR TO HAVE                
BEST HANDLE ON FRONTAL MOVEMENT AND WINDS IN SHORT TERM AND FOLLOWED            
FOR MOST OF TODAY. THIS RESULTED IN LOWER WIND SPEEDS...ESPECIALLY              
OVER SRN SECTIONS. SEAS STILL 4-6 FT MOST AREAS...THUS CONTINUED SCA            
FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KTS AHEAD            
OF FRONT LATE THIS AFTN INTO EVENING...BECOMING W TO NW AFTER FROPA.            
WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE BRIEFLY ON WED WITH SFC RIDGE EXTENDING OVER             
AREA...THEN STRONGER CAA SURGE EXPECTED BEHIND SECONDARY FRONT TUE              
NIGHT. THIS SURGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT...WITH SCA SEAS               
LIKELY CONTINUING OVER NRN SECTIONS INTO THU NIGHT.                             
WW3 SEAS ACCEPTED WITH MINOR CHANGES.                                           
&&                                                                              
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ150-152-154 UNTIL 2 AM FRIDAY.             
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ156 UNTIL 5 PM TUESDAY.                        
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ158 UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY.                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SJ/JBM                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
337 AM EST MON JAN 23 2006                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A VERY SHALLOW WEDGE OF COOL AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL SLOWLY LIFT                
TO THE NORTH TODAY. THIS WILL OCCUR FIRST ALONG COASTAL                         
COUNTIES...WHICH WILL QUICKLY WARM INTO THE 60S WHILE AREAS WEST                
OF I95 STAY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. THE COOL AIR SHOULD ERODE WEST               
OF 95 MUCH LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE AREA WILL START THE DAY                  
WITH WIDESPREAD FOG THAT WILL BE LOCALLY DENSE. A COLD FRONT WILL               
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY SECOND, MOISTURE                 
STARVED COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                                             
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...                                    
AREA RAOB SOUNDINGS SHOW CLASSIC CAD SIGNATURE WITH THE DEPTH OF                
THE COLD AIR A MERE 1000FT. PREVIOUS GUIDANCE RUNS HAVE DIFFERED                
IN TREATMENT OF THE WEDGE OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS...WITH THE NAM                 
BEING OVERLY BULLISH WITH THE COLD AIR AND THE GFS BLOWING IT OUT               
TO THE NORTH IN AN UNREALISTIC MANNER. THE 00Z RUNS HAVE COME INTO              
BETTER AGREEMENT SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE. THE WEDGE SHOULD BREAK                
DOWN OVER COASTAL AND MAYBE ALL SC COUNTIES BY MIDDAY BUT NC                    
COUNTIES WEST OF I95 SHOULD REMAIN FOR A FEW HOURS MORE. WITH                   
PRECIP NOT FALLING INTO THE COOL AIR AND THE SFC RIDGE TO THE NE                
AS OPPOSED TO THE N THIS IS NOT A SETUP WHERE THE COLD AIR IS                   
FAVORED TO HOLD ON. FCST SHOWS A FAIRLY LARGE NW TO SE TEMP                     
GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON...E.G. AN 8 DEGREE DIFF ACRS BLADEN COUNTY              
ALONE. ALTHOUGH THIS PROBABLY WILL END UP HAPPENING SOMEWHERE IN                
THE CAROLINAS ITS STILL HARD TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE. LOOKED AT 12KM               
NAM AND RUC AND MADE BEST ATTEMPT. AS FAR AS PRECIP THE FLAVOR OF               
THE MORNING SHOULD BE LITTLE MORE THAN DRIZZLE. UPGLIDE OVER THE                
INVERSION WILL MAKE FOR THE SLOWLY INCREASING CHANCE FOR                        
MEASURABLE RAINFALL BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE WARM SECTOR PRECIP                
TAKES ON A MORE CONVECTIVE SHOWERY NATURE. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP               
COMES WITH THE LL CONV ASSOC WITH THE ACTUAL FROPA THIS EVE AND                 
EARLY TONIGHT. STILL BELIEVE THAT ISO THUNDER IS POSSIBLE...MODEL               
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY...GFS MORESO THAN NAM. THERE WAS                
QUITE A BIT OF THUNDER UPSTREAM BUT THOSE AREAS WERE BENEFITING                 
FROM MUCH MORE LL CONV THAN WE WILL SEE.                                        
TUESDAY WILL DRY OUT RAPIDLY ALTHOUGH COASTAL LOCALES MAY START THE             
DAY (MOSTLY BEFORE SUNRISE, THAT IS) WITH CLOUDS AND THE SLIGHT                 
CHANCE FOR A SHOWER AS THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN A BIT DUE TO ITS                    
INCREASING ALIGNMENT WITH THE MID/UPPER FLOW.                                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                        
SFC RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AT THE START OF THE PD WHILE A SECONDARY              
SHOT OF COOL AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH COMPLIMENTS OF A VORTEX               
DROPPING INTO NEW ENGLAND. NO PRECIP (OR CLOUDS REALLY, FOR THAT                
MATTER) WITH THIS ONE...JUST SOME COOLER AIR WED NIGHT AND THURS.               
SFC RIDGE MOVES IN THUR NIGHT...TEMPS CLOSE TO CLIMO. RETURN FLOW               
MAY SET UP BY FRIDAY ALBEIT VERY WEAKLY. GUIDANCE HAS HAD SOME                  
TROUBLE WITH THE PROGRESSION SPEED LATE IN THE WEEK BUT ONLY REAL               
RAMIFICATION IS WHEN DO TEMPS COME UP ABOUT A CATEGORY. RETURN                  
FLOW DEEPENS OVER THE WEEKEND SO SOME MOISTURE GETS ENTRAINED.                  
LOOKS LIKE THAT WILL JUST MEAN MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AS ANY                 
PRECIP ENDS UP SLIDING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. JUST IN CASE...LEFT               
ALONE THE VERY LOW END CHANCE POPS SUNDAY ONWARD AS A SLOW MOVING               
COLD FRONT MAY BE ON ITS WAY.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
COLD FRONT REMAINS TO OUR S LATE TONIGHT AND WITH THAT...LOW STRATUS            
AND FOG HAS SETTLED IN. EXPECT LIFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH               
12Z AND THEN A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITIES AS CEILINGS LIFT             
BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z. BY 14Z-15Z...EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO HAVE                   
INCREASED ABOVE 6 MILES AND CEILINGS TO BE BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 KFT.               
EXPECT A PERIOD OF VFR TO BEGIN AROUND 18Z AND PERSIST UNTIL ABOUT              
00Z. HOWEVER...DURING THIS TIME...ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MORE                   
UNSTABLE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT WITH                   
VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 3SM WHEN A SHOWER DOES DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO              
THE TERMINAL AREA. AFTER 00Z-02Z FROM W TO E...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED             
TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND CEILINGS WILL BE LOWERING. PREVAILING               
CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z SHOULD BE MVFR. SEE TAFS.                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MON NIGHT FOR ALL WATERS. A COASTAL                
TROUGH/WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING              
AND WITH THAT DEWPOINTS WILL SURGE TO CRITICAL LEVELS AND EXPECT SEA            
FOG TO DEVELOP. ALREADY PLENTY OF FOG...MUCH OF IT DENSE ALONG THE              
COAST THIS MORNING. WILL KEEP MENTION OF SEA FOG DEVELOPING THIS                
MORNING IN COASTAL WATERS. WITH S TO SW WINDS DEVELOPING AND                    
GRADIENT TIGHTENING AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT THIS                        
AFTERNOON...EXPECT MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO QUICKLY                   
REDEVELOP TODAY. COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH 08Z TO 10Z AND WINDS              
WILL BECOME N BY DAYBREAK TUE. WILL BRING SEAS DOWN BELOW 6 FT BY               
TUE MORNING. THEN HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS FROM            
THE W. HOWEVER...GRADIENT IS SLOW TO RELAX WITH LOW PRESSURE                    
CENTERED ACROSS THE NE U.S. AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS                   
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH WED. THEN THU              
AND FRI...CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOLIDLY ACROSS THE WATERS              
TO BE CENTERED OVERHEAD ON FRI.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256 UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY.        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/PUBLIC...BACON                                                         
AVIATION/MARINE...RJD                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO                                         
310 AM EST MON JAN 23 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...                                  
WL KEEP HEADLINE GOING AS TEMPS CONT TO FLIRT WITH FREEZING.  CALLS             
AROUND NOT INDICATING ANY PROBS BUT RA LINGERING OVER AREA FOR A FEW            
MORE HOURS.  SO...WL LET ADVISORY CONTINUE AS IS GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR            
SOME POCKETS OF ICING.  BACK EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD SHOULD BE E OF               
I-71 NEXT HR OR SO AND PRETTY MUCH OUT OF FA BY 13Z.  WL GO WITH                
AN EARLY AM PD WITH INTENTION OF UPDATING TO DO AWAY WITH HEADLINE              
AND PRECIP BEFORE DAY CREW ARRIVES.  MOST AREAS SHOULD ONLY SEE A               
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF PRECIP.  RAPID DRYING TO OCCUR BEHIND              
PRECIP AND MUCH OF AREA WL BE SUNNY BY MIDDAY.                                  
CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCR LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT CLIPPER                  
SYSTEM.  SUM MODEL DIFFS WITH HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM.  GFS DEVELOPS            
A SOMEWHAT STRONGER SFC LOW AND TRACKS IT FURTHER S THAN NAM.  AS A             
RESULT 850 MB TEMPS END UP BEING A GOOD 4 TO 6 DEG COLDER THAN NAM.             
ECWMF GIVES SUPPORT TO WEAKER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER NAM SOL SO IT WL              
BE FOLLOWED TDA.  ALTHO THERE COULD BE SUM LE SHSN ACTIVITY TMRW AFT            
E OF KCLE...BIG STORY WL BE GUSTY WINDS BEHIND COLD FRONT WHICH MOVE            
THRU DURG THE DAY.  COULD GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA ON LAND AND            
CERTAINLY WOULDN'T WANT TO BE OUT ON LERI TOMORROW.  HIGH TEMPS                 
COULD OCCUR BY MIDDAY WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S BY             
SUNSET.  NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMS EXPECTED AS LAKE TO 850 MB               
TEMP DIFF WL BE MARGINAL AT BEST AND GROUND UNSEASONABLY WARM.  SNOW            
CHCS WL PERSIST TUE NIGHT THRU WED NGT IN NE OH/NW PA.                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                         
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN...SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE            
GFS BUILDING IT IN SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF AND DIGEX. ATTM WITH THE               
850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING AND AIRMASS DRYING OUT MAY JUST LEAVE               
SOME FLURRIES IN NW PA FOR THURSDAY AM. THE RIDGE STAYS IN CONTROL              
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN THE RIDGE MOVES EAST SATURDAY. MODELS             
IN AGREEMENT WITH THAT. MAY HAVE A 20 POP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE             
FRONT APPROACHES. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A 40-50%                 
CHANCE OF RAIN AND WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. IT               
COULD CHANGE TO OR MIX WITH SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT BUT SO FAR OUT...IF               
THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN THE PCPN MAY NOT SWITCH OVER SO FAST...NO                  
CHANGEOVER ATTM.                                                                
GUID TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD FOR WEDNESDAY BUT MAY                               
BE A LITTLE COOL THURSDAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES            
WARMING AND THE RIDGE BUILDING IN. GUID LOWS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY                
NIGHTS IN THE EASTERN AREAS MIGHT BE TOO HIGH WITH THE FORECAST OF              
SOME SNOW COVER AND WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE I.E. LIGHT WINDS AND NOT            
MUCH CLOUDINESS...LOWERED A LITTLE.                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION(06Z-06Z)...                                                           
CURRENTLY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH A WARM FRONT               
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...SECONDARY LOW HAS DEVELOPED INTO TN.  BOTH              
ETA AND RUC CONTINUES TO MOVE LOW INTO WEST VA BY 12Z AND OFF THE               
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  RAIN SHIELD HAS PUSHED INTO             
CENTRAL OHIO...BUT HAVING A HARD TIME PUSHING NORTH.  ALL PRECIP                
CURRENTLY IS RAIN AS TEMPERATURES ACROSS NE OHIO HAVE RISIN INTO THE            
MID 30S.                                                                        
EXPECT RAIN SHIELD TO CONTINUE TO NORTH...DONT EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO             
REACH NW OHIO.  FOR THE NORTHERN LAKESHORE COUNTIES LIKE CLE AND                
ERIE THEY WILL BE ON THE VERY FRINGE OF THE PRECIP AND WILL PROBABLY            
ONLY GET A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN AT BEST.               
BETTER CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN NE AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO LOCATIONS             
LIKE MFD...CAK AND YNG.  BUT WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT                
EXPECT MOST PRECIP TO BE RAIN...BUT POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR SOME               
FREEZING RAIN BEFORE PRECIP ENDS.                                               
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.OH...FZRA ADVISORY 04Z-12Z MON FOR OHZ020>023-029>033-036-037-                 
038-047.                                                                        
.PA...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...KUBINA                                                             
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA                                                            
AVIATION...DJB                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO                                         
1220 AM EST MON JAN 23 2006                                                     
AVIATION(06Z-06Z)...                                                            
CURRENTLY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH A WARM FRONT               
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...SECONDARY LOW HAS DEVELOPED INTO TN.  BOTH              
ETA AND RUC CONTINUES TO MOVE LOW INTO WEST VA BY 12Z AND OFF THE               
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  RAIN SHIELD HAS PUSHED INTO             
CENTRAL OHIO...BUT HAVING A HARD TIME PUSHING NORTH.  ALL PRECIP                
CURRENTLY IS RAIN AS TEMPERATURES ACROSS NE OHIO HAVE RISIN INTO THE            
MID 30S.                                                                        
EXPECT RAIN SHIELD TO CONTINUE TO NORTH...DONT EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO             
REACH NW OHIO.  FOR THE NORTHERN LAKESHORE COUNTIES LIKE CLE AND                
ERIE THEY WILL BE ON THE VERY FRINGE OF THE PRECIP AND WILL PROBABLY            
ONLY GET A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN AT BEST.               
BETTER CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN NE AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO LOCATIONS             
LIKE MFD...CAK AND YNG.  BUT WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT                
EXPECT MOST PRECIP TO BE RAIN...BUT POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR SOME               
FREEZING RAIN BEFORE PRECIP ENDS.                                               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)...                                                        
MNLY RA ADVANCING NNE ACRS SRN OH TWD OUR AREA.  TEMPS SEEMED TO                
HOLD NEARLY STEADY WHILE DWPTS ROSE AS PRECIP STARTED FOR PLACES IN             
SRN OH. WL KP ADVSRY GOING DUE TO SOME PLACES LIKE MFD WITH TEMPS               
ALREADY AT OR WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF FREEZING PT. XPCT SOME OUTLYING            
SPOTS TO AT LEAST BE THIS CLD.  WRM LYR STARTING JUST ABV SFC UP TO             
NR 5K FT WITH TEMPS PEAKING 4 OR 5 DEG C.  THIS PROB REASON FOR                 
TEMPS NOT FALLING WITH PRECIP START SINCE RAIN REACHING GND PROB IN             
35 TO 40 DEG RANGE SO TENDING TO HOLD TEMPS IN PLACE EVEN WITH EVAP             
GOING ON.  WITH MNN AT 33 ALSO WL ADD A FEW MORE CO'S ONTO WRN END              
OF ADVSRY AREA.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...                           
INVERTED TROF MOVING UP...THE 12Z MODEL RUN CONTINUES TO BACK OFF ON            
HOW FAR NORTH THE MOISTURE GETS AND KEEPS IT WARM. MODEL RUNS HAVE              
SOME DIFFERENCES WITH MORE WITH NAM AND THAT SEEMS TO FIT THE RADAR             
ATTM. MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW IT SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN/FREEZING             
RAIN MOST OF TONIGHT...SOME SNOW POSSIBLE NORTHWEST PA. WENT WITH A             
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WITH               
TEMPERATURES NEAR 32F AND DEW POINTS LOW. THE RRQ OF THE JET SHOULD             
HELP WITH THE DYNAMICS. WE SHOULD NOT GET A LOT OF EVAPORATIVE                  
COOLING BUT ENOUGH TO GET SOME LOCATIONS NEAR 32F FOR SOME FREEZING             
RAIN. AS THE PCPN STARTS DEW POINTS SHOULD COME UP AND TEMPERATAURES            
JUST DROP A LITTLE. PCPN AMOUNTS INCLUDING RAIN SHOULD BE .10 OR                
LESS. THE GROUND IS NOT THAT WARM SO SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION                    
WILL OCCUR. THIS IS QUICK SHOT OF PCPN AND THE WORSE SHOULD BE OVER             
BY 12Z. GUID MIN TEMPS A LITTLE TOO COOL WITH THE CLOUD                         
COVER...RAISED SOME. LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE LIKE ERIE AND CLE WILL             
HAVE A SE DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND THAT MIGHT HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE            
FREEZING...HOWEVER...SOME SPOTS WILL BE NEAR 32 OR 31F. AMOUNTS                 
ALONG THE LAKESHORE MAY JUST APPROACH .01 OR .02 THUS WITH IT BEING             
LIGHT AND UNCERTAIN WHETHER IT WILL EVEN MAKE IT...NO ADVISORY ALONG            
THE LAKESHORE.                                                                  
RIDGE BUILDS IN QUICKLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN MODELS AGREE WITH             
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH PLENTY OF COLD             
AIR. 850 MB WINDS OF 50 TO 55 KNOTS AND WITH THE LAPSE RATES                    
BECOMING UNSTABLE...NOT MUCH SHEAR AND MOMENTUM TRANSFER FROM BUFKIT            
HAD 40 KNOTS...THE LOW SEEMS FAR ENOUGH NORTH...THE PRESSURE                    
GRADIENT BECOME QUITE STONG BY 18Z TUE. GUSTS IN THE 40 MPH RANGE               
SEEM VERY REASONABLE...ATTM IT WOULD JUST BE AN ADVISORY...DOESN'T              
SEEM STRONG ENOUGH FOR A WIND WATCH ATTM. SOME LAKE EFFECT OR LAKE              
INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT ESPECIALLY              
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LAKE AND 850 MB             
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE APPROACHES 13C. WITH THE NW FLOW THE BEST                
CHANCE FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE INLAND NW PA. A S/WV FOR                   
WEDNESDAY COULD CAUSE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR THE SNOW BELT OF               
OHIO. THIS IS A MARGINAL EVENT WITH SOMEWHAT LIMITED MOISTURE. NEXT             
SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND IF HEADLINES               
WILL BE NEEDED.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                         
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN...SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE            
GFS BUILDING IT IN SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF AND DIGEX. ATTM WITH THE               
850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING AND AIRMASS DRYING OUT MAY JUST LEAVE               
SOME FLURRIES IN NW PA FOR THURSDAY AM. THE RIDGE STAYS IN CONTROL              
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN THE RIDGE MOVES EAST SATURDAY. MODELS             
IN AGREEMENT WITH THAT. MAY HAVE A 20 POP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE             
FRONT APPROACHES. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A 40-50%                 
CHANCE OF RAIN AND WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. IT               
COULD CHANGE TO OR MIX WITH SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT BUT SO FAR OUT...IF               
THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN THE PCPN MAY NOT SWITCH OVER SO FAST...NO                  
CHANGEOVER ATTM.                                                                
GUID TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD FOR WEDNESDAY BUT MAY                               
BE A LITTLE COOL THURSDAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES            
WARMING AND THE RIDGE BUILDING IN. GUID LOWS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY                
NIGHTS IN THE EASTERN AREAS MIGHT BE TOO HIGH WITH THE FORECAST OF              
SOME SNOW COVER AND WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE I.E. LIGHT WINDS AND NOT            
MUCH CLOUDINESS...LOWERED A LITTLE.                                             
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.OH...FZRA ADVISORY 04Z-12Z MON FOR OHZ020>023-029>033-036-037-                 
038-047.                                                                        
.PA...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA/ADAMS                                                     
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA                                                            
AVIATION...DJB                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK                                               
314 AM CST MON JAN 23 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ONE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS IS EXITING THE FORECAST AREA TO THE                      
SOUTHEAST WHILE ANOTHER IS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHEAST.                      
THE LATEST RUC BOUNDARY LAYER RH INDICATES THIS TREND WILL                      
CONTINUE WITH CLEAR SKIES IN THE SOUTH AND SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY                
CLOUDY FOR PART OF THE MORNING TO NORTH AND EAST OF TULSA.                      
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE                        
AVAILABLE. WENT THE COOLEST FROM BVO TO FYV AND THE WARMEST AT                  
HUGO.                                                                           
WARMER WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS NO                  
REAL COLD AIR IS IN SIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AND                 
AGAIN ON SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OUT              
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THE GFS IS NOW MORE LIKE THE UKMET AND                    
ECMWF HAVE BEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS. THUS...WILL ONLY HAVE A SMALL                
WINDOW FOR RAIN. THE BEST CHANCES WOULD BE TO OUR NORTH AND                     
NORTHWEST.                                                                      
THE SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY LOOKS MORE PROMISING. IT LOOKS LIKE IT                  
WILL MOVE RIGHT THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.                
THERE ALSO WILL PROBABLY BE SOME MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF IT.                   
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TUL   52  32  61  33 /   0   0   0   0                                          
FSM   53  29  62  34 /   0   0   0   0                                          
MLC   54  30  62  32 /   0   0   0   0                                          
BVO   50  27  61  24 /   0   0   0   0                                          
FYV   48  26  59  33 /   0   0   0   0                                          
BYV   46  28  59  33 /   0   0   0   0                                          
MKO   53  30  59  34 /   0   0   0   0                                          
MIO   46  26  59  32 /   0   0   0   0                                          
F10   53  29  60  34 /   0   0   0   0                                          
HHW   56  34  65  35 /   0   0   0   0                                          
&&                                                                              
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM FORECASTER ID= 18                                                    
LONG TERM FORECASTER ID= 17                                                     
ABBAS                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ok                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
335 AM CST MON JAN 23 2006                                                      
...STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TUESDAY...                                             
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT                                           
ONCE AGAIN WE ARE DEALING WITH STRATUS HANGING AROUND THE CWA THIS              
MORNING...MAKING VERY NEAR TERM FORECASTS A CHALLENGE...AND STILL               
LOOKING VERY WINDY /POTENTIAL WIND ADVISORY/ TUESDAY MORNING INTO               
EARLY AFTERNOON.                                                                
STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING HAS PUSHED EAST OF MS                                
RIVER...BARELY...AND IS HANGING UP NOW. MUCH OF WISCONSIN PORTION               
OF STRATUS FIELD IS BREAKING UP THOUGH...AND NAM/RUC 950MB RH                   
FIELDS DOING A MAGNIFICENT JOB WITH THE STRATUS...AND WILL USE IT               
TO EXTRAPOLATE MOVEMENT THROUGH TODAY. WESTERN PORTION OF THE                   
STRATUS FIELD /WRN IA/ ALREADY TURNING AROUND ON BACKSIDE OF RIDGE              
/RUNNING THROUGH HEART OF CWA INTO KOMA AREA/ AND ROARING                       
NORTHEAST INTO SWRN MN. AS SFC-H9 RIDGE CROSSES CWA...DRY POCKET                
FROM SFC-H9 MOVES ACROSS CWA THIS MORNING SO EXPECT A GREAT DEAL                
OF SUN THIS MORNING. RAPIDLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS                   
/SWLY/ IN DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PRESSURE FALLS                    
BRINGS STRATUS FIELD INTO WRN CWA JUST AFTER NOON...AND ACROSS CWA              
BY SUNSET...SO CLOUDS INCREASING QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST...AS                 
WILL WINDS. MUCH OF THE WARMING COMING IN ABOVE STRENGTHENING                   
INVERSION...AND DIDN/T WANT TO WARM TEMPERATURES TOO MUCH BASED ON              
GUIDANCE BEING TOO WARM LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.                                    
ATTENTION THEN TURNS THIS EVENING TO 130-150KT H3 JET RUNNING OVER              
THE TOP OF REX BLOCK REGIME IN WRN CONUS...AND DIGGING QUICKLY                  
SOUTHEAST INTO MN/IA. GFS/NAM STILL SHOWING VERY POTENT 220M                    
HEIGHT FALL /H5/ CENTER DROPPING ACROSS NRN WISCONSIN TUES MORNING              
WITH ATTENDANT 110KT H5 JET...AND 55KT H85 JET CROSSING CWA DURING              
THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS WILL FOR SURE BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO                   
CWA...AND HUNCH IS AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED ESPECIALLY WIND                   
PRONE AREAS FROM KRST TO KOLZ AND WEST. SEVERAL THINGS CAUSE ME                 
CONCERN HOWEVER...AND HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING JUST HOW STRONG                  
WINDS WILL BE. DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN NAM/GFS THROWING SOME                      
QUESTIONS TO WHETHER IT WILL BE LOW END ADVISORY /GFS/ OR HIGH END              
ADVISORY /NAM/. DON/T THINK THERE IS ENOUGH THERE NOW FOR CONCERN               
OF A HIGH WIND WARNING.                                                         
WITH RESPECT TO NAM...I HAVE A PROBLEM WITH THE STRONGEST BURST OF              
COLD ADVECTION COMING IN THE SUNRISE HOURS TUES /BEFORE PRIME                   
MIXING/...AND OUT AHEAD OF MAIN LOW LEVEL WIND MAX WHICH IS STILL               
BACK IN WRN MN/ERN SD. AND WHILE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DO                 
IMMEDIATELY SPREAD IN WITH THE COLD ADVECTION...SOUNDINGS LAY                   
CONCERN HOW DEEP INTO THE VERY WELL ALIGNED MIXING CHANNEL WE CAN               
TAP. FURTHER STILL...THE MAX ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT WITH THE                     
7MB/3HR PRESSURE RISE PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...NAM                   
FORECAST SOUNDINGS /BUFR/ TUESDAY MORNING SHOWING VERY STRONG DEEP              
LAYER SUBSIDENCE...WHICH IS A PRIMARY HIGH WIND COMPONENT...AND                 
ALSO A BRIEF /3HR/ WINDOW NEAR 15Z WHERE LOW LEVEL Q VECTORS                    
ALIGNED PERFECTLY WITH THE MEAN LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WITH THE STEEP              
LAPSE RATES AND COLD ADVECTION. HENCE...EXPECT THE STRONGEST GUSTS              
IN THE MORNING...WITH 35-45 MPH GUSTS IN WRN CWA AND 30-40 MPH IN               
ERN CWA. GFS BRINGING A STRONGER PIECE OF H7 ENERGY ACROSS CWA IN               
THE MORNING...WITH ACTUALLY SOME PRETTY STRONG UVM AND SNOW                     
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...WHICH WILL REALLY HINDER MIXING OF STRONG              
WINDS. SO GRADIENT WOULD BE THE LONE COMPONENT WITH ISALLOBARIC                 
FORCING SO FAR TO THE NORTH. EVEN STILL...GFS WINDS IN AFTERNOON                
IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE NEARLY AS STRONG AS NAM...SO EITHER                    
WAY...STRONG WINDS WILL BUFFET THE CWA ON TUESDAY. DID NOT BUY                  
INTO GFS PCPN THIS FAR SOUTH/WEST...AND MAINTAINED THE SMALL                    
CHANCES IN THE FAR NERN CWA WHERE SATURATION AND Q/G FORCING THE                
STRONGEST. WILL CONTINUE TO HIT WINDS HARD IN HWO...AND ADD                     
HIGHLIGHT WORDING TO ZONES.                                                     
WEDNESDAY A VERY QUIET DAY WITH FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN AND RIDGING                  
BACK INTO CWA.                                                                  
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY                                            
NO REAL CHANGES IN THE LONG TERM...OTHER THAN TO JOIN OUR                       
WESTERN/SOUTHERN NEIGHBORS AND INCREASE POPS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT                
AS CUTOFF SWRN CONUS ENERGY EJECTS NORTHEAST AS AN OPEN WAVE...AND              
GFS/NAM HAVE COME AROUND FULLY NOW TO THIS SCENARIO WHICH THE                   
UK/ECMWF SHOWED MORE THAN 24 HOURS AGO. PLENTY OF WARM AIR OUT                  
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH H85 STANDARDIZED              
ANOMALIES RUNNING FROM 1.5 TO 2.O ACROSS THE CWA...HIGHER FURTHER               
NORTH. LIFT AND LOWERING HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE POSITIVE TILT              
WAVE COOL TEMPERATURES INTO FRIDAY...SO COULD BE RAIN OR SNOW. NOT              
MUCH SURFACE REFLECTION WITH SYSTEM...AND EXPECT IT TO BE RATHER                
STARVED OF MOISTURE. APPEARS A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE STILL ON TAP               
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY PER ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM AS                             
PROGRESSIVE/SHARP WAVE...MUCH LIKE WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST 6 WEEKS                
CROSSES THE CONUS IN DEAMPLIFYING FAST FLOW. COULD BRING A BRIEF                
SHOT OF DECENT PCPN...GIVEN CLOSED H7 CIRCULATION AND IMPRESSIVE                
MID LEVEL AND SURFACE DEPICTION OF WAVE ON ECMWF. GFS NOT SHOWING               
THIS YET...BUT MOST LIKELY WILL IN FUTURE RUNS AS IT COMES TO                   
ECMWF SOLUTION. STILL A VERY MILD PATTERN...AND DESPITE LONG RANGE              
TELECONNECTIONS AND ENSEMBLES STILL POINTING AT A MUCH COLDER                   
PATTERN TAKING SHAPE IN EARLY FEBRUARY...THE DAILY /OPNL/ RUNS OF               
THE ECMWF/GFS SHOWING NO SUCH SIGNS OF THIS PATTERN CHANGE...WITH               
STRONG PACIFIC FLOW AND ALASKA NEG HEIGHT ANOMALY DOMINATING THE                
NOAM FLOW PATTERN. HAVE NOTICED THE ENSEMBLE MOS HAS GOTTEN VERY                
NOISY /VERY LARGE STANDARD DEVIATIONS/ IN THE LATE PERIODS SO                   
PERHAPS SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STARTING TO SUGGEST A CHANGE.                     
NOTHING ON THE HORIZON YET.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BINAU                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                              
931 AM CST MON JAN 23 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
HAVE UPDATED TO EXTEND FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM FOR SOUTHERN AND                
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA.  MIXING DOWN OF WINDS SLOWER TO OCCUR AND              
SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK. CONTACT WITH COUNTY SHERIFF'S OFFICES            
INDICATING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG STILL OCCURRING IN ADVISORY AREA                
JUST BEFORE 9 AM...                                                             
PF                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
225 AM CST MON JAN 23 2006                                                      
STRATUS AND HAZE PUSHING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CWA ATTM. NEXT                
UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND ACROSS NEBRASKA                
MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE LOW 30S WHERE               
STRATUS HAS MOVED IN...WITH THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN FRINGES                    
DROPPING INTO THE 20S BEFORE THE CLOUDS ROLLED IN.                              
MAIN ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE HOW LONG CLOUDS WILL PERSIST AND                   
AFFECT ON TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL REMAINS JUST                
TO THE NORTH WITH LIGHT SE WINDS AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THE 500M                
LEVEL PER PROFILERS. 06Z RUC AND ETA12 LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS SUGGEST              
STRATUS IS IN PLACE UNTIL THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE CAN INCREASE                   
WESTERLY FLOW AND BEGIN TO PUSH THE CLOUDS OUT. WILL HAVE CLOUD                 
COVER INTO THE NOON HOUR...THEN BEGIN TO DRAW CLOUDS EASTWARD                   
THROUGH 0Z. AS A RESULT...WESTERN ZONES MIGHT BE ABLE TO MAKE 50                
AS SKIES CLEAR...BUT EASTERN AREAS WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK MID 40S.              
THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW AND DRIER AIR TO                 
KEEP FOG FROM FORMING OVERNIGHT.                                                
TUES/WED STILL SHOWING A GOOD WARMUP AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT                    
SLOWLY TRANSITIONS TO AN UPPER RIDGE BY LATE WEDNESDAY. ETA IS A                
BIT WEAKER WITH THE RIDGING...KEEPS WINDS ALOFT A SMIDGE                        
HIGHER....AND 850MB TEMPS HIGHER AND AS A RESULT GIVES WARMER                   
SURFACE TEMPS. CURRENT GRIDS GENERALLY REFLECT A MIX TO 900MB                   
WITH GFS PROFILE.                                                               
FOR THURS...0Z GFS COMING AROUND TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF LIFTING THE           
SOUTHWESTERN LOW ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KS INSTEAD OF PREVIOUS              
SOUTHERLY TRACK. THIS WOULD KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA                
AND POSSIBLY EVEN BRING IN DRIER AIR AROUND THE BASE OF THE SYSTEM              
INTO THE CWA LATE THURS. FOR THE AFTERNOON...GUIDANCE STILL GIVING A            
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM WITH DIV Q AND               
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IN PLACE AS WELL AS ENOUGH TIME TO DRAW IN SOME                
INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. MIGHT BE MORE RAIN THAN SNOW ON              
THIS TRACK. ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR FRI-SUN.                           
&&                                                                              
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM               
TODAY FOR AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF A WASHINGTON TO COUNCIL GROVE LINE            
AND SOUTH OF A COUNCIL GROVE TO OTTAWA LINE.                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
67/39                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME                                                
1020 AM EST MON JAN 23 2006                                                     
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
HAVE UPDATED AGAIN THIS MORNING TO ISSUE A HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR               
THE SOUTHERNMOST TIER OF NEW HAMPSHIRE ZONES THROUGH THIS EVENING.              
SO FAR...SPOTTER REPORTS INDICATE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW HAS                     
ALREADY FALLEN...AND THE BANDING FEATURE REMAINS ON RADAR ACROSS                
THIS AREA...AND THE SNOW EXTENDS BACK THROUGH EASTERN NEW YORK                  
STATE...WHERE ALB IS REPORTING MODERATE SNOW. A TOTAL OF 4 TO 8                 
INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THIS AREA. THE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT ACROSS              
THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MAINE...AS THE BEST LIFT IN              
BANDING REMAINS SOUTH OF THIS AREA.                                             
ALSO UPDATED FOR THE RAIN AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S ALONG                 
THE MID COAST OF MAINE...WHERE THE COASTAL FRONT HAS NUDGED                     
ONSHORE. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE PUBLIC FORECAST AT THIS TIME.                  
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 913 AM EST MON JAN 23 2006)                                             
SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                   
ZONES HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR SNOWFALL TRENDS ACROSS THE               
SOUTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT IS ACCOUNTING               
FOR BANDS OF SNOW SETTING UP ALMOST PARALLEL TO THE MID LEVEL                   
FLOW. BASED ON OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM AND THE CURRENT RADAR                      
PRESENTATION...UPPED TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR SOUTHERNMOST NEW                
HAMPSHIRE ZONES TO 4 TO 6 INCHES. IF THE TRANSVERSE FEATURES ON                 
THE RADAR INCREASE...MAY HAVE TO ISSUE A SHORT FUSED HEAVY SNOW                 
WARNING FOR THIS AREA LATER THIS MORNING.                                       
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ZONES THIS MORNING.                   
MARINE...                                                                       
FORECAST UPDATED EARLIER THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRONGER               
SOUTHWEST FLOW. MAY HAVE TO PUT UP A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS              
FOR TONIGHT...AS THE SWELL FROM THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM COMES BACK                
TO THE COAST.                                                                   
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 640 AM EST MON JAN 23 2006)                                             
SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...                                   
SNOW BREAKING OUT AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS              
AND A LOOK AT THE 06Z RUC...WILL UPDATE TO UP CURRENT 2-4 INCH                  
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS RANGES TO 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH SNOW ADVISORY.                  
ELSEWHERE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE.                             
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 209 AM EST MON JAN 23 2006)                                             
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...                                      
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES              
EASTWARD TODAY. SNOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER DAYLIGHT AND SHOULD END DURING          
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND LOOKS LIKE A              
2 TO 4 INCH ACCUMULATION FOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS AND A 1 TO 3 INCH                
RANGE ELSEWHERE. GFS HINTS AT A POSSIBLE CHANGEOVER TO LIQUID FOR               
A BRIEF PERIOD ALONG OUR SOUTHERNMOST COASTAL AREA...BUT AM                     
LEANING AGAINST IT AT THIS TIME. SHOULD IT DO SO...IT WOULD KNOCK               
DOWN COASTAL ACCUMULATIONS AN INCH OR SO. NO WIND PROBLEMS BEHIND               
THE STORM. POPS/TEMPS A BLEND OF CURRENT FCST AS WELL AS GFS/NAM                
GUIDANCE.                                                                       
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...QUIET AND MILD DAY TUESDAY                 
AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. COLD FRONT REACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE              
TUESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION IN                 
THE LOWER LEVELS AND APPROACH OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW                 
FOR AREAS OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH MODELED POPS HAVE                 
LOWERED INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY...WILL LEAVE SNOW LIKELY FORECAST              
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. SYSTEM WRAPS UP OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES                  
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...IT APPEARS IT WILL BE TOO FAR EAST TO CAUSE                
MUCH IN THE WAY OF PROBLEMS ACROSS THE GYX FORECAST AREA (PERHAPS               
SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IN THE MOUNTAINS HOWEVER).                            
REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST IS WINDY THROUGH THE END OF THE               
WEEK...FOLLOWED BY MORE MILD WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. EAST COAST                
SURFACE RIDGE TO SET UP SOUTHWEST FLOW ONCE AGAIN.                              
AVIATION...VFR EARLY...DROPPING TO MVFR AFTER SUNRISE FROM WEST                 
TO EAST...THEN DOWN TO IFR/LIFR BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.          
MARINE...NO FLAGS.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ME...SNOW ADVISORY FOR MEZ018>028 UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY.                            
NH...SNOW ADVISORY FOR NHZ005-006-009-010 UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY.                    
  ...HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR NHZ007-008-013-014 UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY.               
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   me                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME                                                
913 AM EST MON JAN 23 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
ZONES HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR SNOWFALL TRENDS ACROSS THE               
SOUTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT IS ACCOUNTING               
FOR BANDS OF SNOW SETTING UP ALMOST PARALLEL TO THE MID LEVEL                   
FLOW. BASED ON OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM AND THE CURRENT RADAR                      
PRESENTATION...UPPED TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR SOUTHERNMOST NEW                
HAMPSHIRE ZONES TO 4 TO 6 INCHES. IF THE TRANSVERSE FEATURES ON                 
THE RADAR INCREASE...MAY HAVE TO ISSUE A SHORT FUSED HEAVY SNOW                 
WARNING FOR THIS AREA LATER THIS MORNING.                                       
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ZONES THIS MORNING.                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
FORECAST UPDATED EARLIER THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRONGER               
SOUTHWEST FLOW. MAY HAVE TO PUT UP A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS              
FOR TONIGHT...AS THE SWELL FROM THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM COMES BACK                
TO THE COAST.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 640 AM EST MON JAN 23 2006)                                             
SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...                                   
SNOW BREAKING OUT AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS              
AND A LOOK AT THE 06Z RUC...WILL UPDATE TO UP CURRENT 2-4 INCH                  
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS RANGES TO 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH SNOW ADVISORY.                  
ELSEWHERE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE.                             
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 209 AM EST MON JAN 23 2006)                                             
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...                                      
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES              
EASTWARD TODAY. SNOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER DAYLIGHT AND SHOULD END DURING          
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND LOOKS LIKE A              
2 TO 4 INCH ACCUMULATION FOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS AND A 1 TO 3 INCH                
RANGE ELSEWHERE. GFS HINTS AT A POSSIBLE CHANGEOVER TO LIQUID FOR               
A BRIEF PERIOD ALONG OUR SOUTHERNMOST COASTAL AREA...BUT AM                     
LEANING AGAINST IT AT THIS TIME. SHOULD IT DO SO...IT WOULD KNOCK               
DOWN COASTAL ACCUMULATIONS AN INCH OR SO. NO WIND PROBLEMS BEHIND               
THE STORM. POPS/TEMPS A BLEND OF CURRENT FCST AS WELL AS GFS/NAM                
GUIDANCE.                                                                       
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...QUIET AND MILD DAY TUESDAY                 
AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. COLD FRONT REACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE              
TUESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION IN                 
THE LOWER LEVELS AND APPROACH OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW                 
FOR AREAS OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH MODELED POPS HAVE                 
LOWERED INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY...WILL LEAVE SNOW LIKELY FORECAST              
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. SYSTEM WRAPS UP OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES                  
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...IT APPEARS IT WILL BE TOO FAR EAST TO CAUSE                
MUCH IN THE WAY OF PROBLEMS ACROSS THE GYX FORECAST AREA (PERHAPS               
SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IN THE MOUNTAINS HOWEVER).                            
REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST IS WINDY THROUGH THE END OF THE               
WEEK...FOLLOWED BY MORE MILD WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. EAST COAST                
SURFACE RIDGE TO SET UP SOUTHWEST FLOW ONCE AGAIN.                              
AVIATION...VFR EARLY...DROPPING TO MVFR AFTER SUNRISE FROM WEST                 
TO EAST...THEN DOWN TO IFR/LIFR BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.          
MARINE...NO FLAGS.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ME...SNOW ADVISORY FOR MEZ018>028 UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY.                            
NH...SNOW ADVISORY FOR NHZ005>010-013-014 UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY.                    
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   me                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME                                                
640 AM EST MON JAN 23 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...                                  
SNOW BREAKING OUT AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS              
AND A LOOK AT THE 06Z RUC...WILL UPDATE TO UP CURRENT 2-4 INCH                  
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS RANGES TO 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH SNOW ADVISORY.                  
ELSEWHERE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE.                             
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 209 AM EST MON JAN 23 2006)                                             
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...                                      
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES              
EASTWARD TODAY. SNOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER DAYLIGHT AND SHOULD END DURING          
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND LOOKS LIKE A              
2 TO 4 INCH ACCUMULATION FOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS AND A 1 TO 3 INCH                
RANGE ELSEWHERE. GFS HINTS AT A POSSIBLE CHANGEOVER TO LIQUID FOR               
A BRIEF PERIOD ALONG OUR SOUTHERNMOST COASTAL AREA...BUT AM                     
LEANING AGAINST IT AT THIS TIME. SHOULD IT DO SO...IT WOULD KNOCK               
DOWN COASTAL ACCUMULATIONS AN INCH OR SO. NO WIND PROBLEMS BEHIND               
THE STORM. POPS/TEMPS A BLEND OF CURRENT FCST AS WELL AS GFS/NAM                
GUIDANCE.                                                                       
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...QUIET AND MILD DAY TUESDAY                 
AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. COLD FRONT REACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE              
TUESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION IN                 
THE LOWER LEVELS AND APPROACH OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW                 
FOR AREAS OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH MODELED POPS HAVE                 
LOWERED INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY...WILL LEAVE SNOW LIKELY FORECAST              
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. SYSTEM WRAPS UP OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES                  
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...IT APPEARS IT WILL BE TOO FAR EAST TO CAUSE                
MUCH IN THE WAY OF PROBLEMS ACROSS THE GYX FORECAST AREA (PERHAPS               
SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IN THE MOUNTAINS HOWEVER).                            
REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST IS WINDY THROUGH THE END OF THE               
WEEK...FOLLOWED BY MORE MILD WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. EAST COAST                
SURFACE RIDGE TO SET UP SOUTHWEST FLOW ONCE AGAIN.                              
AVIATION...VFR EARLY...DROPPING TO MVFR AFTER SUNRISE FROM WEST                 
TO EAST...THEN DOWN TO IFR/LIFR BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.          
MARINE...NO FLAGS.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ME...SNOW ADVISORY FOR MEZ018>028 UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY.                            
NH...SNOW ADVISORY FOR NHZ005>010-013-014 UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY.                    
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   me                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE                                            
743 AM CST MON JAN 23 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE FOG CONTINUES TO LIFT THIS MORNING NOW THAT LOW LEVEL                       
SOUTHWESTLY FLOW HAS TAKEN HOLD OF MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.                   
THERE ARE STILL A FEW SPOTS REPORTING REDUCED                                   
VISIBILITIES...HOWEVER THINK THEY WILL QUICKLY RISE AND WILL LET                
THE ADVISORY EXPIRE ON TIME AT 8 AM.                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 413 AM CST MON JAN 23 2006)                         
DISCUSSION...MAIN CONCERNS ARE FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THIS      
MORNING AND THEN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.              
DENSE FREEZING FOG HAS SPREAD STEADILY WEST INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF            
THE CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT 0930Z THE FOG AND STRATUS WERE                    
GENERALLY CONFINED TO AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. SURFACE OBS AND                
SEVERAL CALLS AROUND THE AREA REVEAL VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/4 MILE AND            
HAVE THUS ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 14Z. RUC BOUNDARY                 
LAYER RH HAS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS EVENT THROUGH THE NIGHT AND              
THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS FOLLOWS ITS LEAD. BELIEVE              
THAT WESTERN EDGE OF FOG WILL NOSE SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST BETWEEN 10             
AND 12Z...BEFORE RAPIDLY RETREATING EAST BY 15Z AS SURFACE WINDS                
TURN WEST IN RESPONSE TO UPPER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE                 
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.                                                  
AFTER FOG AND STRATUS CLEAR OUT THIS MORNING...SHOULD SEE A MILD DAY            
WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND AMPLE SUNSHINE PUSHING TEMPS TO               
AROUND 50F. WINDS COULD GET A LITTLE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH                 
GOOD MIXING. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA THIS                    
AFTERNOON ON A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND LIMIT HEATING POTENTIAL                 
SOMEWHAT.                                                                       
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE MIGRATES SLOWLY EAST THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH                   
RISING HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIME. SOME SLIGHTLY                
COOLER AIR TRIES TO BACK IN FROM THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY...BUT                 
ATTM LOOKS LIKE THIS COOLER AIR WILL STAY JUST NORTHEAST OF THE                 
CWA AND HAVE THUS KEPT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON                     
TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY AS RIDGE AXIS                      
TRAVERSES ACROSS THE PLAINS.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ne                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1230 PM CST MON JAN 23 2006                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE MORNING FOG. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY             
TO OVERCAST SKIES PREVAIL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S NORTH AND                 
LOWER 40S OVER SE IL AS WNW WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH TURN SW.                          
FOG STILL LINGERED EAST OF THE IL RIVER AND NORTH OF I-70 AT NOON               
WITH VISIBILITIES 1 TO 3 MILES WITH CHARLESTON/MATTOON STILL AT A               
HALF MILE WITH FREEZING FOG. THIS FOG SHOULD LIFT INTO A LIGHT HAZE             
BY MID AFTERNOON. BROKEN TO OVERCAST STATUS UNDER 1000 FT HAS                   
CLEARED SE OF LAWRENCEVILLE IN FAR SE IL AND IS THINNING A BIT NORTH            
OF I-72 WHERE BREAKS IN OVERCAST ARE APPEARING AT MIDDAY. THESE                 
CLOUDS COVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN MO AND MUCH OF IOWA. TEMPS RANGE FROM             
THE UPPER 20S FROM CHARLESTON/MATTON NORTH...WITH 30S FROM I-70                 
SOUTH AND LAWRENCEVILLE UP TO 38F WHICH HAD MORE SUNSHINE                       
THIS MORNING.                                                                   
1027 MB HIGH PRESURE OVER NORTH TEXAS AND RIDGING NE ACROSS CENTRAL             
MO AND CENTRAL IL NEAR THE IL RIVER VALLEY. AN INVERSION FROM THIS              
HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN TRAPPING LOW CLOUD LAYER THAT IS AROUND 1500             
FEET THICK PER PILOT REPORTS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS TO SLIP SE               
TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER BY MID EVENING/03Z AND WNW WINDS TO TURN SW               
AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY EVENING. THIS SHOULD HELP MIX OUT             
THE LOW CLOUDS DURING THIS EVENING...BUT A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS            
YET THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S FROM PEORIA NORTH               
WHERE LIGHT SNOW COVER AND LOWER 40S OVER SE IL WHERE MORE SUNSHINE             
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY BY LAWRENCEVILLE. IF CLOUDS BREAK UP QUICKER...             
THE WARMER RUC AND NAM TEMPS MAY WORK OUT WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES                
WARMER.                                                                         
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
AREAS OF FOG AND FREEZING FOG IN THE AREA AGAIN THIS MORNING...                 
HOWEVER VSBYS GENERALLY A LITTLE HIGHER AND LESS UNIFORM THAN                   
YESTERDAY SO WILL WITHHOLD ANY DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS MORNING.                 
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                         
LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO HANG AROUND THE REGION LIKE AN UNWELCOME               
HOUSE GUEST THIS MORNING.  GUIDANCE AND MOS COMPLETELY OUT TO LUNCH             
AS MOIST LAYER IS VERY SHALLOW AND THUS DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE.                   
SATELLITE AND PROFILER OBSERVATIONS INDICATE NORTHWEST FLOW AOA                 
925MB HAS BEEN PULLING SOME DRIER AIR INTO NORTHEASTERN IOWA.  WEAK             
NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS ILLINOIS...               
MISSOURI... AND SOUTHEAST IOWA... WHERE LOW CLOUDS REMAIN SOCKED IN.            
AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS AREA                    
TODAY... LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK AND NORTHERLY OVER CENTRAL             
ILLINOIS.  NOT MUCH MIXING OUT OF SHALLOW MOIST LAYER EXPECTED.                 
WESTERLY FLOW AND ANY ATTENDANT CLOUD EROSION SHOULD STAY OVER FAR              
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.  LOW CLOUD ERADICATION                
WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT FOR STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TONIGHT AS             
STRONG CLIPPER SYSTEM SINKS INTO WESTERN ONTARIO... ALLOWING                    
GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE MIDWEST.                                         
THE BOTTOM LINE IS A PESSIMISTIC FORECAST FOR TODAY.  MOS TEMPS ARE             
LIKELY TOO HIGH DUE TO UNDERESTIMATING CLOUD COVER... AND WILL                  
GREATLY UNDERCUT... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WHERE SNOWPACK              
REMAINS.  LOWER 40S SOUTH OF I-70 AND MID 30S ELSEWHERE MIGHT EVEN              
BE A TAD OPTIMISTIC.                                                            
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW KICKS OVERNIGHT... CLOUDS SHOULD START TO              
DECAY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.  HOWEVER... MAY SEE CLOUDS TRY TO            
HANG ON WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION OVER SNOWPACK AREAS IN THE FAR                 
NORTH.                                                                          
TUESDAY... STRONG UPPER LOW LUMBERS ACROSS ONTARIO... WITH ATTENDANT            
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...             
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS.  TEMPERATURE                
FORECAST WILL BE RATHER TRICKY... AS ATMOSPHERE LIKELY TO BE WELL               
MIXED ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  HOWEVER...             
QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL COOL AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE BACKDOOR                  
FRONT... AND DESPITE LACK OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE... STEEP                
LAPSE RATES WITH CAA WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A DECENT DECK OF STRATO              
CU DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF ILLINOIS BY AFTERNOON.                
CONSIDERING CLOUD COVER... HAVE PULLED TEMPS BACK BELOW GUIDANCE                
VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.  FARTHER SOUTH... WE MAY            
SEE LOW/MID 40S IF SKY COVER ALLOWS.  IF CURRENT CLOUD DECK PERSISTS            
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH... MAY EVEN HAVE TO CARVE BACK TEMPS A               
BIT MORE.                                                                       
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE OTHER MAJOR STORY ON TUESDAY... AS GRADIENT             
SETS UP... WITH STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK.  ETA/GFS FORECAST               
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING TO ABOUT 880 MB OR SO... POSSIBLY TAPPING             
INTO 40-45 KT FLOW JUST OVERHEAD.  WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS                
SOME PORTION OF THE CWA NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.                                
DESPITE FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS... A FEW FLURRIES COULD BE SHAKEN OUT             
OF ANY STRATOCU DECK... ESPECIALLY AS STRONG VORT MAX SLIDES THROUGH            
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.                                                              
WEDNESDAY... ETA BECOMES THE OUTLIER HERE... WITH PATTERN ACROSS THE            
CONUS UNDER-AMPLIFIED.  GOOD AGREEMENT ACROSS GFS... GFS                        
ENSEMBLES... UKMET... ECMWF.  ETA MAY BE TOO QUICK TO BRING WARMER              
AIR BACK IN ON WEDNESDAY AS IT APPEARS THE REGION MAY STILL BE UNDER            
THE INFLUENCE OF LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH CARVED OUT OVER THE                      
NORTHEASTERN STATES.                                                            
POSSIBLE FORECAST PITFALL IS WITH CLOUD COVER GOING INTO WEDNESDAY.             
SFC HIGH BEGINS TO SETTLE IN... HOWEVER IF H85 RIDGE AXIS REMAINS TO            
OUR WEST... RESULTING IN MORE NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW... LOW CLOUDS            
MAY NOT BE MOVING OUT TOO QUICKLY.  FURTHER REASON TO TEMPER MAX                
TEMPS... ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WEDNESDAY.                                      
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...                                          
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST.  BY MIDWEEK...                   
LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS GOUGED OUT OVER THE NORTHEAST... WITH A                 
CLASSIC CUTOFF LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.  IN BETWEEN... SHARP              
SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS... WHICH IS WHERE WE SHOULD            
FIND OURSELVES BY THURSDAY... ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPS SHORTWAVE             
RIDGING BUILDS IN.                                                              
MAIN PROBLEM CONTINUES TO BE WITH CUTOFF LOW AND ITS EVENTUAL KICKER            
TROUGH.  GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE GREATLY BY MID/LATE IN THE WEEK             
WITH THE STICKING POINT APPEARING TO BE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO            
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... KICKING OUT THE CUTOFF LOW.  GFS/ECMWF IN              
FAIR AGREEMENT ON SHEARING OUT THE CUTOFF TO OUR NORTHWEST FRIDAY...            
BUT THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO QUICK CONSIDERING AMPLITUDE OF RIDGING                
OVER THE CENTRAL US DURING THAT TIME FRAME.                                     
FOR NOW WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY ON FRIDAY... CONSIDERING CUTOFF WILL             
BE SHEARING OUT MORE TO OUR NORTHWEST... AND MAY INDEED BE A BIT                
SLOWER THAN WHAT GUIDANCE CURRENTLY ADVERTISES.  PRECIP THREAT MAY              
BE MORE RELATED TO THE KICKER TROUGH ITSELF... AND ATTENDANT COLD               
FRONT MOVING THROUGH.  HOWEVER... INDICATIONS NOW ARE THAT MUCH OF              
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY EVEN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTH            
AND WEST.                                                                       
BEYOND THE CUTOFF LOW SITUATION... PATTERN MAY BECOME MORE                      
PROGRESSIVE TOWARDS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES                 
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IN FAIRLY QUICK SUCCESSION AS LONGWAVE                  
TROUGH OVER THE EAST LIFTS OUT.  TEMPS STILL LOOK TO BE MILD AS COLD            
AIR REMAINS NORTH OF 60.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HARDIMAN                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                             
1118 AM CST MON JAN 23 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
FCST GRIDS AND ZONES TWEAKED TO REFLECT QUICK SCOURING OF STRATUS               
AND REFLECTANCE ON TEMPS. LATEST GOES VISIBLE LOOP SHOWS THE                    
CENTRAL TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA NOW CLOUD-FREE. NAM AND RUC TIME                  
HEIGHTS AND SOUNDINGS ALL PORTRAY CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE TO                    
ERODE...HOWEVER SEEING STRATOCU FINGERING IN OVER NW AREAS. THINK               
THAT WILL ONLY CONTINUE OVER AND WEST OF A MDH TO MVN LINE...SO                 
HAVE BUMPED DOWN MAXS ACCORDINGLY. MAXS ELSEWHERE ALREADY TOOK                  
INTO ACCOUNT THIS CLEARING AND ONGOING YET WEAKENING CAA...SO                   
LITTLE ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO REST OF CWA.                                         
&&                                                                              
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND VERY LIGHT RAIN PERSISTED EAST OF A MOUNT                  
CARMEL IL TO POPLAR BLUFF MO LINE EARLY THIS MORNING. MAY HAVE TO               
ACCOUNT FOR THIS IN THE FORECAST EARLY ON. OTHERWISE CONFIDENCE IN              
CLOUD AND TEMP TRENDS LOW TODAY...BASED ON SATELLITE. LOW STRATUS               
LURKING JUST NORTH OF THE FA. DEEP SEEDED MOISTURE WAS NOW EAST OF              
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND MOVING STEADILY EAST. NOT EXACTLY SURE                
HOW CLOUD COVER WILL TEND THROUGH THE DAY. FOR NOW WE WILL HEDGE                
WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE AND THE DAY SHIFT CAN ADJUST ACCORDINGLY.               
WENT A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW GUIDANCE BASED ON HOLDING ONTO THE                   
CLOUDS LONGER...ALONG WITH WEAK CAA.                                            
QUIET WX EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THUR...AS WE TRANSITION TO NW FLOW            
ALOFT. NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION STILL LOOKS TO START THURSDAY               
NIGHT...CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW                  
PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BECOME SW AND MORE UNSETTLED. STILL NO REAL              
COLD AIR TO SPEAK OF EITHER.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
CN/MTF                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA                                             
1201 PM EST MON JAN 23 2006                                                     
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
MESOSCALE UPDATE 3...                                                           
WE JUST SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO FORECASTS/STATEMENTS TO ADJUST PRECIP            
TYPE FOR I-95 ZONES AS WELL AS NORTHERN CT...NW RI AND ADJACENT SW/ S           
CENTRAL MA BASED UPON CURRENT CONDITIONS.                                       
HEAVIEST SNOW IS SHIFTING OFF COAST BUT WILL STILL AFFECT MERRIMACK             
VALLEY FOR NEXT HOUR. MEANWHILE...RAIN/SNOW LINE HAS EDGED A BIT                
FARTHER N INTO NORTHERN RI AND BOSTON'S SOUTHERN SUBURBS...BUT WE ARE           
A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT AFTER CHECKING LATEST RUC THAT BOS ITSELF               
WILL PROBABLY NOT COMPLETELY CHANGE OVER (THOUGH IT MAY HAPPEN FOR AN           
HOUR OR TWO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON). JUST NOT ENOUGH ONSHORE FLOW AND             
850 MB TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE A BIT TOO COLD (-4C) TO CAUSE A RAPID             
CHANGE TO RAIN THERE.                                                           
SURFACE LOW WAS ANALYZED JUST S OF LONG ISLAND AT 11 AM AND WILL                
TRACK S OF NANTUCKET THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BACK WINDS TO NE AND N           
WHICH WILL DRAW LOW LEVEL COLD BACK INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...                
THEREFORE WE INDICATED A CHANGE BACK TO SNOW BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON           
AS FAR SE AS I-95.                                                              
THAT SAID...FORECAST STORM TOTALS LOOK VERY GOOD AND NO CHANGES ARE             
BEING MADE. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE MINIMAL...               
GENERALLY 1-3" AT MOST.                                                         
JWD                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 1049 AM EST MON JAN 23 2006)                                            
SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                   
MESOSCALE UPDATE 2...                                                           
FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED. SHORT TERM FORECASTS WILL           
PROVIDE DETAILS ON INTENSITY AND CHANGES IN PRECIPITATION TYPE.                 
RAIN/SNOW LINE CONTINUES TO ADVANCE SLOWLY N AND EXTENDED FROM                  
SOUTHERN HARTFORD AND TOLLAND COUNTIES INTO WINDHAM COUNTY...THEN               
INTO PROVIDENCE...TAUNTON AND PLYMOUTH. WE HAVE ALSO RECEIVED MANY              
REPORTS OF SLEET MIXING IN...MAINLY S OF MASS PIKE. THIS WARMING IS             
ASSOCIATED WITH COASTAL FRONT BUT ALSO WITH NOSE OF 850 MB JET...WHICH          
WILL HEAD OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. SO THAT SHOULD BE THE END OF                 
SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL WARMING.                                                  
AT SAME TIME COASTAL FRONT SHOULD WORK A BIT FARTHER INLAND...BEFORE            
SURFACE LOW TRACKING S OF NANTUCKET FORCES WINDS TO BACK TO NE AND              
THEN N...PUTTING AN END TO LOW LEVEL WARMING. SO IT'S STILL A TOUGH             
CALL AS TO HOW FAR INLAND RAIN/SNOW LINE PENETRATES THROUGH EARLY               
AFTERNOON...BUT WE STILL THINK IT WILL MAKE IT INTO NW RI AND METRO             
BOS...THOUGH IT'S DEBATABLE OVER N SHORE. OBSERVED POINT SOUNDINGS DO           
INDICATE DYNAMIC COOLING IS KEEPING EVERYTHING SNOW AROUND IMMEDIATE            
BOS AREA RIGHT NOW...SO AS INTENSITY DECREASES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...          
WE SHOULD SEE MORE LOCATIONS SWITCH OVER.                                       
FOR INTERIOR SECTIONS...SNOW OR SNOW/SLEET WILL LAST THROUGH                    
AFTERNOON BUT SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE LESS THAN WHAT CAME THROUGH THIS           
MORNING.                                                                        
JWD                                                                             
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 844 AM EST MON JAN 23 2006)                                             
SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                   
MESOSCALE UPDATE...                                                             
SO FAR SO GOOD. RAIN/SNOW LINE IS EDGING N THROUGH CT...SPOTTER                 
REPORTS INDICATE IT'S INTO FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF HARTFORD...                 
TOLLAND AND WINDHAM COUNTIES THEN INTO SOUTHERN RI AND CAPE COD                 
CANAL. OBSERVED LAPS SOUNDINGS INDICATE EVERYTHING IS BEING DRIVEN BY           
DYNAMIC COOLING RIGHT NOW...THUS SNOW IS DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE DOWN TO           
S COAST DESPITE SE FLOW WHICH TYPICALLY CAUSES A RAPID CHANGE TO RAIN           
FOR THE COAST.                                                                  
BACK EDGE OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS WORKING THROUGH NE CT AND RI              
RIGHT NOW...SO AS THIS BACK EDGE ADVANCES INTO SE MA WE EXPECT TO SEE           
MORE LOCATIONS CHANGE TO RAIN (OR AT LEAST A MIX) FROM PROVIDENCE TO            
PLYMOUTH...AS WELL AS IMMEDIATE BOSTON METRO AREA. HEAVIEST SNOW WILL           
REMAIN IN HARTFORD TO WORCESTER AND LAWRENCE CORRIDOR...AS WELL AS              
LOCATIONS FARTHER N AND W. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR             
ARE LIKELY FOR THESE PLACES.                                                    
ALL IN ALL CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS WELL COVERED...SO NO CHANGES AT            
THIS TIME.                                                                      
JWD                                                                             
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 452 AM EST MON JAN 23 2006)                                             
SHORT TERM (TODAY)...                                                           
LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN              
NORTH CAROLINA...WITH AN AREA OF PRESSURE FALLS EAST OF THE DELMARVA            
COAST. INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR PICTURES INDICATE IN IMPRESSIVE                 
PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE EMANATING FROM THE GULF STATES TRACKING                  
NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. USED THE 00Z GFS AS MODEL              
OF CHOICE TODAY...GIVEN THAT IT INITIALIZED BETTER FROM 00Z                     
RADIOSONDE OBSERVATIONS. IN ADDITION THE GFS ADVERTISES IMPRESSIVE              
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS MORE REFLECTIVE OF UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS.                 
LEXINGTON KY RECEIVED 1.31" BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z (ASSOCIATED WITH THE            
REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF THE 250 MILLIBAR JET). THE GFS ALSO MORE                 
PROGRESSIVE AND THIS IS VERIFYING BETTER WITH FORECAST PRECIPITATION            
AMOUNTS.                                                                        
00Z NAM AND GFS THICKNESSES WERE FAIRLY SIMILAR...BUT CHOSE THE                 
SLIGHTLY COLDER MET SURFACE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. GIVEN INHERENT                
LOW DEWPOINT AIR...NORTHERLY AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW OVER INTERIOR                    
LOCATIONS AND EVAPORATIONAL COOLING DUE TO STRONG LIFTING MECHANISMS.           
THE COMBINATION OF A MOIST EAST SOUTHEASTERLY JET OFF THE ATLANTIC              
OCEAN...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AT 850 MILLIBARS...A MOISTURE                 
PLUME FROM THE GULF AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AT 250                
MILLIBARS WILL PROVIDE MECHANISMS FOR STRONG LIFT TODAY.                        
FEEL THAT PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD AN EXCELLENT HANDLE ON THE SYNOPTIC             
SITUATION. GIVEN GFS QPF AMOUNTS AND SLIGHTLY COLDER THICKNESSES                
DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WARNING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NEW               
HAMPSHIRE. ALSO ADDED EASTERN NORFOLK COUNTY INTO A WINTER WEATHER              
ADVISORY WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ATOP BLUE HILL. PLEASE REFER TO                
WSWBOX FOR DETAILS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.                                         
PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF PRIOR TO 00Z ACROSS MUCH OF THE                  
FORECAST AREA. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SNOW GRAINS OR FREEZING                 
DRIZZLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS MAIN MECHANISMS FOR                
LIFT DEPART...THERE IS LEFTOVER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BELOW 700                  
MILLIBARS WITH AIR DRYING AND WARMING ALOFT.                                    
LONG TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                           
CLIPPER LOW WITH ITS SUPPORTING UPPER TROF WILL AFFECT NEW ENGLAND              
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THEN A COLDER AIR MASS ARRIVES FOR                
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.  BOTH NAM AND GFS PASS THE               
LOW CENTER TO OUR NORTH...THEN REDEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF MAINE.                
WEAK FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AS THE LOW AND COLD FRONT SWING THROUGH.             
BUT LIMITED MOISTURE...NOT ALWAYS DISTRIBUTED WELL IN THE VERTICAL              
(DRY SPOTS). SO WE WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS DEVELOPING DURING                   
TUESDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY...AND DIMINISHING                    
EVERYWHERE BUT THE CAPE AND ISLANDS TOWARD EVENING.  FROM QPF AND               
TOOLS...WILL GO WITH 1-3 INCHES MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH               
HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN NH...CLOSEST TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW.                        
COLDER AIR THEN POURS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND DESTABILIZES THE                  
AIRMASS.  THIS WILL PROMOTE MIXING OF WIND TO THE SURFACE AS GUSTS.             
GUST POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE 25-30 KNOTS WITH SOME FAVORED ELEVATIONS             
AND COASTAL AREAS IN THE LOWER 30S OF KNOTS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF                 
27-30 KTS LOOK POSSIBLE OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...A POTENTIAL WIND            
ADVISORY THURSDAY. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.                              
THE COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE CLIPPER WILL BRING SUFFICIENT COLD             
AIR SO THAT OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY              
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.  WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW...MOST OF THIS SHOULD                
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE OF PROVINCETOWN AND TRURO.                                 
DRY WEATHER THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH WARMING TEMPS.  LONG               
RANGE GUIDANCE TRIES TO ORGANIZE A COLD AIR POOL OVER THE CANADIAN              
ARCTIC AND/OR NORTHERN ALASKA...BUT ANYTHING THEY FORM STILL LOOKS              
MEAGER COMPARED WITH THE POOL OVER ASIA.  SO THE PACIFIC ZONAL FLOW             
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECASTABLE FUTURE.  THUS THE COOL-DOWN            
MIDWEEK SHOULD BE TEMPORARY AND FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL            
TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                
AVIATION...                                                                     
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY ALL TERMINALS DUE TO LOW CEILINGS            
AND PRECIPITATION. PLEASE REFER TO THE TAFS FOR DETAILS.                        
MARINE...                                                                       
WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE OFFSHORE LOW MOVES OUT TO SEA.               
AFTER A SHORT PAUSE...WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN LATE TUESDAY AND                 
TUESDAY NIGHT.  MIXING OF UPPER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER               
AND TRAILING COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING GALE FORCE GUSTS TO THE                  
SURFACE TUESDAY NIGHT.  COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THIS MIXING                
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WIND ON FRIDAY.                   
HYDROLOGY...                                                                    
FLOOD STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED FOR THE CONNECTICUT RIVER AT                 
HARTFORD AND MIDDLETOWN. PLEASE REFER TO FLSBOX FOR DETAILS.                    
&&                                                                              
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR CTZ002>004 UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY.                     
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR MAZ002>006-008>012-026 UNTIL 7 PM                 
     MONDAY.                                                                    
  ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MAZ007-013>017 UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY.              
NH...HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR NHZ011-012-015 UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY.                   
RI...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR RIZ001 UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY.                         
  ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR RIZ002>004 UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY.                  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-254-255 UNTIL              
     MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.                                                          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   ma                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM                                         
235 PM MST MON JAN 23 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
PATTERN CHANGE ALREADY IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED               
STATES AS AN UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES ITS SLIDE SLOWLY TO               
THE SOUTHWEST NEAR THE NRN BAJA OF CA. THIS FEATURE COULD BRING A               
DECENT ROUND OF PCPN TO THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT AS SOUTHERLY MID-               
LEVEL FLOW TAPS INTO PACIFIC MOISTURE AND WORKS IT NORTHWARD INTO               
NM. THE NEARLY STATIONARY LOW WILL EVENTUALLY EJECT INTO THE SWRN               
US AS AN UPSTREAM STORM SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN THE NRN BRANCH OF JET                
STREAM GIVES THIS CUTOFF FEATURE A BOOST IN THE REAR. THE BIGGEST               
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HRS. THE PCPN               
CHANCES/TIMING WILL BE CRUCIAL ON HOW LONG THIS UPPER LOW REMAINS               
OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN BEFORE EJECTING INTO THE SWRN US. ONE MORE               
CAVEAT WILL BE HOW DEEP UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL DIG...WHICH MAY ALSO               
ASSIST IN TRAJECTORY OF UPPER LOW. GFS IS THE FURTHEST SOUTH WITH               
UPPER LOW COMPARED TO THE 12Z NAM/CANADIAN/NOGAPS OR ECMWF. GOING               
WITH THE CONSENSUS MAY NOT BE THE ROUTE TO GO AS THE GFS MAY HAVE               
A VALID SLOWER SOLUTION. INHERITED POP GRIDS HAVE A SLIGHT WEIGHT               
TOWARD THE NAM TRACK/TIMING...BUT WILL NUDGE POPS SOMEWHAT CLOSER               
THE GFS AS THIS MODEL HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON CURRENT POSITION AND               
STRENGTH OF UPPER LOW PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC80 ANALYSIS.               
PRETTY TRANQUIL AFTERNOON ACROSS NEW MEXICO...HOWEVER 500MB WINDS               
WILL START TO SHIFT FROM A SW TO MORE OF SOUTHERLY COMPONENT. THE               
CIRRUS SHIELD SHOULD START TO WORK NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.              
A PRETTY EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUD DECK IS PROGGED FOR TUESDAY WITH AN               
UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENT FLOW DEVELOPING OVER SW NM. PWATS NOT OVERLY               
IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME WITH 12Z VALUES NEAR 0.25 INCH AT EL PASO               
AND 0.16 INCH AT KABQ...HOWEVER READINGS HAVE BEEN CREEPING UP. A               
TOP DOWN EFFECT MAY BE IN ORDER FOR TUE AFTERNOON AS WEAK RIPPLES               
IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CRUISE INTO THE SW CWFA. VIRGA SHOWERS               
ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT ISOLD PCPN WORDING FOR NOW. THE               
MOISTURE SURGE WILL TAKE SHAPE TUE NIGHT WITH UPPER LOW BEGINNING               
TO LIFT NORTHEAST. AGAIN...TRACK WILL BE CRUCIAL...BUT ANTICIPATE               
RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE SW AND               
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. NAM PRETTY AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF...BUT SNOW               
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. ACTIVITY WILL               
SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL/NRN ZONES WED/WED NIGHT...BUT THE ULTIMATE               
TRACK OF UPPER LOW WILL DETERMINE WHERE HEAVIEST QPF WILL FALL. A               
WINTER STORM WATCH WAS SUGGESTED BY EARLIER SHIFTS...HOWEVER SOME               
UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS AND WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW. WILL KEEP AN               
ISOLATED THREAT FOR PCPN ON THUR AS GFS IS SLOWER AND WRAP AROUND               
PCPN MAY CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NRN ZONES. AS AN ADDITIONAL NOTE...             
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LIGHTNING BOLTS BENEATH UPPER               
LOW AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA COMPLIMENTS OF STRONG LIFT. HPC               
GRAPHICS INDICATE A LOW PROBABILITY FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE               
GILA AS WELL AS THE NW MOUNTAINS FOR DAYS 2 AND 3. STAY TUNED...                
DECREASED DIURNAL TEMP RANGES FOR THE MON NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY               
TIMEFRAME DUE TO CLOUD COVER INHIBITING INCOMING SOLAR AS WELL AS               
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND PCPN CHANCES.                                           
UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL WORK THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FOR LATE               
IN THE WORK WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND. APPEARS BRUNT OF ENERGY WILL PUSH               
THROUGH THE NRN UNITED STATES WITH A SRN FEATURE TRACKING THROUGH               
OUR REGION. STRENGTH AND TRACK IS STILL UNCERTAIN WITH THIS STORM               
WITH THE GFS SWINGING A FAIRLY WEAK CLOSED LOW THROUGH NRN MEXICO.              
DO NOT SEE A SIGNIFICANT REASON TO ADJUST INHERITED POPS ATTM FOR               
THIS PERIOD. DPORTER                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
FARMINGTON......................  13  47  25  45 /   0   0   5  40              
GALLUP..........................   5  51  24  46 /   0   0  30  50              
GRANTS..........................   7  49  22  47 /   0   0  30  40              
GLENWOOD........................  23  59  32  54 /   0   0  50  60              
CHAMA...........................   4  44  12  42 /   0   0   0  40              
LOS ALAMOS......................  13  48  23  44 /   0   0   5  40              
RED RIVER.......................  -2  41   9  39 /   0   0   0  20              
TAOS............................   0  49  15  44 /   0   0   0  20              
SANTA FE........................  15  48  23  45 /   0   0   5  40              
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  17  49  24  46 /   0   0   5  40              
ESPANOLA........................  11  51  20  49 /   0   0   0  30              
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  25  53  32  50 /   0   0  10  40              
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  21  55  30  51 /   0   0  10  40              
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  20  52  29  48 /   0   0  10  40              
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  21  54  30  50 /   0   0  20  40              
SOCORRO.........................  20  56  31  52 /   0   0  20  40              
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  12  45  22  40 /   0   0  10  40              
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  14  49  20  44 /   0   0  10  30              
CARRIZOZO.......................  21  52  29  51 /   0   0  20  20              
RUIDOSO.........................  18  51  25  48 /   0   0  20  30              
RATON...........................  11  52  18  46 /   0   0   0  10              
LAS VEGAS.......................  16  51  23  43 /   0   0   0  30              
ROY.............................  21  50  25  47 /   0   0   0  10              
CLAYTON.........................  25  55  26  51 /   0   0   0   5              
SANTA ROSA......................  21  57  27  52 /   0   0   0  10              
TUCUMCARI.......................  21  57  28  52 /   0   0   0  10              
FORT SUMNER.....................  23  58  29  53 /   0   0   0  10              
CLOVIS..........................  26  57  29  52 /   0   0   0  20              
PORTALES........................  25  59  29  53 /   0   0   0  20              
ROSWELL.........................  27  57  35  53 /   0   0   5  20              
&&                                                                              
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
46                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   nm                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
310 PM EST MON JAN 23 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...COOL AIR WEDGE HAS              
FINALLY BROKEN DOWN ACROSS THE AREA...EVIDENT IN WIDESPREAD SWLY                
WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE ENTIRE SOUTHEAST.               
PREVALENT CLOUD COVER STILL PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN                
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...AN EARLIER                   
EROSION OF THE WEDGE ALLOWED FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.                  
TEMPS ROSE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF                    
GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS FROM 60-65               
HAS ALLOWED A BIT OF INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. SCATTERED SHOWERS                  
HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER SRN GA AND ARE MOVING NE TOWARD OUR                
ZONES ATTM. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME THUNDER               
AS WELL. CONCERNING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THE GFS IS QUITE FAST                 
WITH THE SYSTEM AND HAS IT THROUGH A LITTLE AFTER 12Z TUE. THE                  
NAM SEEMS MORE REASONABLE WITH A SLOWER PROGRESSION...MOVING IT                 
THROUGH DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TUE. PLAN TO KEEP CHC                  
POPS ALL NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHER POPS THIS EVE ACROSS SE GA WHERE               
THE BEST INSTABILITY EXISTS. THEN...OVERNIGHT HAVE HIGHEST POPS TO              
THE NORTH WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE FRONT WHERE BETTER FRONTAL                
FORCING WILL EXIST. HAVE LIMITED THUNDER TO SRN THIRD OF CWA THIS               
EVENING.                                                                        
IN ADDITION TO PRECIP...IT APPEARS FOG IS AGAIN POSSIBLE                        
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH PROBABLY NOT AS DENSE AS THIS MORNING. SW H85                
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM 30 TO 35 KTS OVERNIGHT ABOVE A VERY MOIST              
AND NEARLY SATURATED LLVL. NAM AND RUC SFC CONDENSATION PRESSURE                
DEFICITS ALONG WITH NAM SFC VSBY FIELDS INDICATE WIDESPREAD FOG                 
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWEST VSBY ALONG THE COAST. WILL PROBABLY SEE SEA               
FOG SET UP AGAIN TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST. HAVE PUT AREAS OF FOG                 
INTO ALL AREAS EXCEPT EXTREME OUTER WATERS AND WILL MENTION                     
LOCALLY DENSE. /JRL                                                             
PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY APPEARS               
TO BE MORE SUBDUED THAN IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...ESPECIALLY IN THE              
NAM. AS A RESULT OF SLOWER MORE SUBTLE PROGRESSION...WILL KEEP                  
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...                
AND THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO PERSIST UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON JUST               
ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND SC ZONES.                                            
AFTER THE FRONT LURCHES THROUGH THE AREA AND PRETTY MUCH                        
DISSIPATES...SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN             
MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING              
FROPA OCCURS WEDNESDAY. WITH MORE SUNSHINE BUT COOLER AIR ADVECTING             
INTO THE REGION...TEMPS WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER DURING THE            
DAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL BRING LIGHT                    
NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND WITH CLEAR               
SKIES ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS             
ON WEDNESDAY TO BE MUCH COOLER THAN TUESDAY NIGHT. /WMS                         
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE        
EXTENDED.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THU AND FRI BEFORE IT               
SHIFTS EAST ON SAT AND SUN AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.              
WILL STILL BE ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE OF POP LATE IN THE FORECAST                
WITH ONLY MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE SUN-MON WHEN NEXT FRONT IS                   
SCHEDULED TO PUSH THROUGH.  TWEAKED MAX TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES BY               
THE END OF THE WEEK WHILE LOWS WILL STILL BE IN THE 30S.  WEEKEND               
WILL SEE MILDER TEMPS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING.                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING VSBYS AND CIGS             
IN THE IFR/LIFR CAT. CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWS A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS              
HEADING TOWARDS THE SAV TERM AS THE WARM SECTOR MAKES ITS WAY NORTH.            
THIS WILL BE A SHORT LIVED IMPROVEMENT WITH MODELS ONCE AGAIN                   
SHOWING LOW CIGS AND VSBYS AFTER SUNSET. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CB            
FOR SAV THIS AFTERNOON AS MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK INSTABILITY MOVING              
ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA. WILL WATCH CLOSELY FOR POSSIBILITY FOR TS. AS             
THE COLD FRONT GETS CLOSER IT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.                
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT THUS CUTTING OFF               
ANY RAIN AND CONDS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AROUND 15Z.                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...SW WINDS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW...AOB 15 KT.                  
SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 6 FT OVER THE OUTER GA WATERS DUE TO SOME                
PERSISTENT SWELL. SEA FOG IS AGAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY                
ALONG THE COAST. WILL WORD CWF WITH AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE                
WITH VSBY LESS THAN 3/4 NM. WEAK FROPA TUESDAY WILL CAUSE                       
SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS TO INCREASE AND VEER TO THE                     
NORTHWEST BY THE EVENING. SHOULD SEE SEAS OVER AMZ374 DECREASE                  
BELOW 6 FT DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR A LITTLE WHILE...BUT THE                    
INCREASING WINDS WILL BRING SEAS IN THE OUTER GA WATERS BACK UP TO              
6 FEET BY TUESDAY NIGHT...SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE              
REISSUED BY SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL THEN PERSIST                
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MARINE ZONES.                
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE                   
WEEK. WEAK NE AND E WINDS WILL BECOME S ON SATURDAY AS THE CENTER               
OF THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON               
SUNDAY AHEAD OF NEXT STORM SYSTEM/FRONT.                                        
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AMZ374.                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JRL/WMS/PAY/REV                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
130 PM MST MON JAN 23 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...AT 20Z A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE                 
CENTRAL PART OF SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT             
OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE.  BREEZY WEST TO                    
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE THE RULE WITH SOME WINDS REACHING ADVISORY                  
CRITERIA IN NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES HAVE                
PRETTY MUCH BEEN REACHED ALREADY WITH MOST NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE               
THE MORNING FORECAST...AND AROUND 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.                      
TONIGHT...THE RUC SURFACE PRESSURE TENDENCY FORECAST CALLS FOR                  
PRESSURES TO CONTINUE TO RISE OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THORUGH THE             
EVENING HOURS...AND THE GRADIENT TO REMAIN TIGHT.  HOWEVER                      
DECOUPLING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ABRUPTLY JUST BEFORE SUNSET AND                 
SURFACE WIND SPEEDS OVER THE WEST SHOULD DROP OFF. CLEAR SKIES AND              
SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE              
NIGHTTIME HOURS.                                                                
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE LAARGE SCALE ERN PAC TROUGH IS FORECAST             
TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR NEXT WEEK OR SO...RESULTING MOSTLY RIDGING               
OVER THE WEST AND KEEPING THE WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS EMBEDDED IN THE              
NORTHWEST FLOW FROM DEVELOPING INTO ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT.                       
UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGHT HE MIDDLE PART            
OF THE WEEK.                                                                    
THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES AND CLOUDS INCREASE             
A BIT AS A SOMEWHAT STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN               
ROCKIES INTO THE FORECAST AREA.  THE ETA12 SHOWS ONLY A SMALL AREA              
OF WEAK MID TO LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WITH THIS SYSTEM AROUND THE              
BLKHLS AND LAYER RH STAYS PRETTY MUCH BELOW 40 PCNT. WILL KEEP THE              
DRY FORECAST FOR THU FOR NOW.                                                   
EXTENDED...LATEST GUIDANCE CONVERGING ON UPPER TROUGH AFFECTING THE             
NORTHERN PLAINS AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. DYNAMICS                
WITH TROUGH NOT VERY ORGANIZED...BUT SHOWING SOME WEAK LIFT MOVING              
THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE INITIAL FRONT. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME LOW               
POPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST                
AREA. SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE             
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE            
EXTENDED PERIOD.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.            
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS                   
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF ALL TWEB ROUTES WILL TAPER OFF LATE THIS                  
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.UNR...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
SD...WIND ADVISORY FOR NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA UNTIL 5 PM.                       
WY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CARPENTER/RUDGE                                                                 
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
955 AM MST MON JAN 23 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...AT 15Z THE SURFACE TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDRY WAS                 
MOVING OUT OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND A JET STREAK EMBEDDED IN                 
NORTHWEST FLOW WAS ENTERING THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MONTANA AND                
NORTH DAKOTA. THE 15Z RUC WAS SHOWING FAIRLY STRONG 850 MB LEVEL                
WINDS (55+ KTS OVER ERN MT) THAT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE              
AFTERNON HOURS INTO PARTS OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AT ABOUT MAX                  
HEATING TIME.                                                                   
TODAY...WINDS OVER NWRN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE AND HAVE            
DECIDED TO GO AHEAD WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHWEST SOUNTIES             
SOUTH DAKOTA...EVEN THOUGH FORECAST SURFACE WIND SPEEDS ARE JUST                
BARELY BUMPING UP INTO THE ADVISORY CRITERIA SPEEDS...AND EVEN                  
THOUGH WE DON'T HAVE THE MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND FULL HEATING              
TO MAKE A SOLID HIGH WIND FORECAST I THINK WE'LL BE CLOSE IN A FEW              
AREAS. WILL PUT IT OUT WITH THE MORNING UPDATE. OTHERWISE EXPECT A              
ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY JUST WINDY                  
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.                              
FROM EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION...                                                
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL               
COMBINE TO BRING UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.                  
READINGS 30F ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGHS LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY.                        
THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST ALLOWING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE            
TO RACE TOWARD REGION AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE               
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING A COOL FRONT THROUGH THE             
AREA...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. IT LOOKS               
DRY FOR NOW.                                                                    
EXTENDED...AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL MOVE                  
NORTHEAST AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE PACIFIC. MODELS ARE                   
STARTING TO AGREE ON TRACKING IT WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE              
AREA LEAVING QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA. MODELS ARE THEN HAVING               
TROUBLE WITH TIMING AND POSITION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING                 
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY            
FOR NOW.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.            
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 35+               
KTS AFFECTING PTNS OF ALL TWEB RTES. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF LATE THIS             
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.UNR...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
SD...WIND ADVISORY FOR NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.                   
WY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CARPENTER/RUDGE                                                                 
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