FXUS04 KWBC 260651
QPFPFD
 
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
151 AM EST FRI NOV 26 2004
 
PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID NOV 26/1200 UTC THRU NOV 27/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
 
 
DAY 1...

...CNTL U.S...

MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THIS PD WITH HANDLING OF PAC COLD
FRONT PUSHING RAPIDLY ACRS THE PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY.  UPR
SUPPORT WILL REMAIN SPLIT ALONG THE FRONT WITH SATL SHOWING A
FAIRLY VIGOROUS S/WV THRU THE SRN GT BASIN THAT WILL DROP INTO
THE SRN PLANS FRI EVENING..WHILE FARTHER NORTH S/WV ENERGY
OVER SWRN CANADA WILL DROP SEWD ACRS THE DAKOTAS.  MODELS
AGREE THAT NRN S/WV WILL HELP SUPPORT A DEEPENING SFC LOW
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NEWD TOWARD WITH BY SAT MORNING
ACCOMPANIED BY AN EXPANDING AREA OF WAA PCPN.   WHILE
SYNOPTICALLY..THE GFS SOLN IS PREFERRED GIVEN ITS BETTER
INITIALIZATION AND CONTINUITY...MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO ITS QPF.

THE GFS LOOKED A LITTLE HEAVY WITH AMOUNTS ACRS NE NEB AND NW
IA WHERE IT WRINGS OUT SOME .50 TO 1 INCH AMOUNTS IN AREA OF
MODEST 85H CONVERGENCE..BUT THE FACT THAT THE BEST LOW LEVEL
JET AND PWS ARE FARTHER EAST..SUGGESTS THESE AMOUNTS MAY BE
OVERDONE.  FARTHER SOUTH...AIRMASS INITIALLY IS QUITE DRY OVER
THE SRN PLAINS THOUGH 1 INCH PWS LINGER RIGHT OFF THE TX COAST
AND MODELS DO ALLOW SOME 1.25 INCH PWS TO BUILD INTO THE LOW MS
VALLEY FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF SRN STREAM S/WV.  WITH LOW LEVEL JET
FCST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 50 KTS ALONG WITH DECENT PVA
ASSOCD WITH THE S/WV ITSELF..SUSPECT THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT
AREA OF SHWRS AND EMBDD TSTMS DVLPG ACRS ERN TX INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY FRI NIGHT.  THOUGH SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST MOVER
THINK THE GFS IS TOO DRY ACRS THIS REGION.  


...WEST COAST/INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...

SOME RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WITH NW FLOW..MOST OF WHICH SHOULD BE
LIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME .25 INCH LIQUID AMOUNTS OCCUR ACRS THE
SAN JUANS OF SRN CO AS QUICK MOVING S/WV IMPULSE TRACKS ACRS
THE AREA DURING THE MRNG HOURS.  NEXT SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF
UPSTREAM ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT COASTAL AREAS OF NRN CA
FRI EVE..WHILE A WEAK SYSTEM DROPPING SEWD ALONG THE COAST OF
BC WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF COASTAL SHOWERS AND INLAND
SNOWS OVER WA FRI NIGHT.  CA SYSTEM IS FCST TO AMPLIFY TOO CLOSE
TO THE COAST AND THUS WILL HAVE LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO BACK
FLOW ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR  ANY SIGNIFICANT ONSHORE FLOW
COMPONENT. THUS MAIN IMPACT HERE WILL BE OVER THE HIER
ELEVS..PARTICULARLY THE NRN/CNTL SIERRAS.   DID NOT DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MODELS HERE.  ACRS THE NW..USED A MODEL
BLEND ADJUSTED TO TOPOGRAPHY.

SULLIVAN
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
 
24HR QP VT 27/12Z
 0.01 498653 492650 484657 477664 474673 472681 474688 476693 
      481699 485699 489696 493688 496683 497680 498669 499665 
      498658 498653 
 0.01 542198 540190 537184 534177 531170 528164 525161 521157 
      518155 514155 511157 508161 501159 494159 484156 478151 
      474146 475145 481146 485149 491150 494149 494143 492136 
      488130 483126 477124 473123 469124 466128 463127 460125 
      457126 452130 447141 443142 439140 436142 434150 435158 
      438163 440166 443170 448180 454184 457184 460180 459173 
      460171 464171 469171 473170 478173 479177 481179 485183 
      489188 492194 493199 489197 486196 480197 470200 467203 
      462205 459204 456207 454210 443211 439214 435217 430219 
      428221 427218 428203 431185 432176 433171 432166 430161 
      427155 425150 423146 416136 413134 410133 403134 398135 
      393139 391143 389151 389159 387167 386177 393187 395193 
      394196 392196 386194 382190 372184 369184 366185 364189 
      376204 379210 383214 387216 392220 395223 393225 383221 
      378219 374214 368211 365208 362205 360203 357203 353207 
      353210 358219 361224 367229 376235 383241 390244 397245 
      406248 412248 416246 419243 421239 420235 417231 416227 
      419225 423223 424221 426223 429227 433231 436233 435234 
      431237 426240 425243 428246 431249 438252 448254 459253 
      480264 488270 496279 503286 508291 512290 523258 521252 
      519247 517242 515234 513228 510223 508220 505215 502210 
      501205 504201 507201 511203 514209 517214 520217 525222 
      528225 533229 
 0.01 525938 524928 523923 519917 516912 509907 502902 497903 
      494905 492911 490918 488925 489934 496942 503948 512955 
      515956 518958 521957 523952 524943 525938 
 0.01 485853 482830 478817 475804 471791 467783 463774 459767 
      454761 451758 448756 445755 441756 439752 436747 431744 
      426748 424757 425765 422781 422791 426798 424805 420812 
      411823 400835 394841 388844 375855 363865 356869 353872 
      339880 334882 331886 326890 320894 316897 311902 304906 
      295915 287925 284932 278938 274942 271946 269950 270954 
      273961 271965 268970 267974 269978 275981 280981 284979 
      290975 295971 302968 309965 315963 323961 331957 358948 
      364948 371952 380959 390971 393974 394978 394982 391986 
      387993 386999 398997 410999 417002 424004 432007 438010 
      440011 442015 441020 437020 432021 428023 423029 418033 
      415034 412037 407045 402048 395050 389049 389057 384052 
      382050 378047 366047 359049 356051 355054 358061 361061 
      353062 349062 346064 355069 352072 351077 356077 358075 
      362074 366075 369080 372086 374096 375099 379100 385096 
      391091 398089 402083 405080 408079 413079 417077 424072 
      430071 435076 439076 444078 450081 453081 454079 453068 
      453064 455063 459064 461068 465074 475085 487098 492101 
      497102 499098 501093 502087 499077 497068 493059 487043 
      480025 477018 478008 483989 482976 480966 479960 478952 
      477938 485903 486891 487878 486861 485853 
 0.01 474111 474107 473105 469101 459097 454092 452090 449090 
      435089 426086 418095 411095 406094 403100 395106 392109 
      386112 379117 377122 377126 379129 382129 387126 391124 
      397122 406126 410122 417124 421127 423129 426128 434121 
      438119 441122 448125 452122 455117 459115 462115 469116 
      473112 474111 
 0.01 449204 449200 448197 447195 446193 445191 444186 444183 
      441185 440186 438187 437189 435193 437196 437197 439201 
      439202 440206 441207 444209 446207 447207 449204 
 0.01 442231 441230 438229 436230 437233 441232 442231 
 0.01 379061 378058 377057 375056 372055 369055 367057 366058 
      367058 369059 372061 375061 378062 379061 
 0.25 533215 535211 534205 532200 529194 526189 524185 521182 
      515178 511180 512185 515190 517196 519203 521208 525212 
      529215 533215 
 0.25 506277 504267 500260 496254 492247 484241 480235 478231 
      473231 468235 468240 471244 473251 477254 482255 490259 
      495266 500272 502276 505278 506277 
 0.25 503238 500230 498223 495212 491211 488211 485209 481207 
      478208 473211 470214 470216 474218 478219 482220 487220 
      491223 492226 496236 498238 500240 502239 503238 
 0.25 466879 462855 459844 454836 450833 445832 442833 439835 
      433841 429849 427856 422872 419879 413885 408889 402893 
      397898 394902 394907 398909 402909 408909 414911 420915 
      424922 425934 425942 424953 424959 426965 429967 433966 
      438962 443961 445962 455976 456978 458980 460977 463967 
      465949 469931 469922 469909 467890 466879 
 0.25 465239 464235 461234 458234 455234 454235 452239 454242 
      457242 460243 462242 463239 465239 
 0.25 451222 451221 449218 446218 442219 444224 445224 446224 
      448224 451222 451222 
 0.25 407221 409218 408215 405212 400210 397211 394208 392205 
      388201 384198 381197 379199 382204 385207 388209 394211 
      396211 399215 401218 404221 407221 
 0.25 374901 374893 373890 369889 365888 358890 347895 334901 
      323906 313913 304920 300930 299935 298938 295940 291943 
      288946 283950 282956 285961 287962 290962 300959 307957 
      312954 321948 332942 337939 340935 343931 349930 354929 
      358926 367918 371914 373909 374901 
 0.25 382079 382075 381072 378069 377068 375067 374065 372064 
      369064 368065 369066 370068 372072 372073 373075 374079 
      375082 375083 378084 379083 381081 382079 
 0.50 478243 478241 477238 476237 475238 475239 477243 477245 
      478243 
 0.50 460920 460910 459899 456878 453869 451866 449864 444866 
      440870 433881 428893 427898 428903 431912 432922 433932 
      433937 434944 438946 441945 449944 452943 455940 457934 
      459927 460920 
 0.50 363901 363897 359897 351901 346903 338907 332910 326914 
      322919 328921 334919 340918 347913 353910 358906 363901 
 0.50 298950 296950 294950 292951 294952 297952 298950  
 
$$