FXUS04 KWBC 140626
QPFPFD
 
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
225 AM EDT THU OCT 14 2004
 
PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID OCT 14/1200 UTC THRU OCT 15/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
 
 
...DAY 1...


...ERN LAKES REGION TO THE NORTHEAST U.S...

A SHRTWV TROF WILL LIFT SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY
IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING TROF OVR THE CNTRL U.S.  EXPECT
PCPN AMTS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL GNLY LGT GIVEN THE LACK OF GOOD
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING AT LLVLS.   MODELS HAVE THEIR DIFFERENCES
HERE AND FOR THE MOST PART LEANED MORE ETAISH...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST WHERE THE ETA HAS HAD  BETTER
CONTINUITY THAN THE GFS FOR THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS.

...CONCERNING THE AMPLIFYING CNTRL U.S. TROF...

MODEL MASS FIELD FCSTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING THIS
SYSTEM AND ITS ASOCTD CDFNT MAKING PICKING AND CHOOSING BTWN 
MODEL QPF DIFFERENCES DIFFICULT AT BEST.    THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY
MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE ETA WITH PCPN COVERAGE AND TOTALS
ACROSS THE MID MS AND OH VLYS NEAR THE TRACK OF THE DVLPNG
UPPER CNTR.   WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE HEAVIER  GFS GIVEN THE
INTENSITY OF THE UPPER LVL FORCING INVOLVED WITH THE CLOSING OFF
OF THE UPPER CNTR.   MEANWHILE...SHWRS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE GULF COAST AND DVLP INTO THE SERN U.S. ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE ASOCTD CDFNT.   TREND IN BOTH THE 0000 UTC ETA
AND THE GFS WAS BEEN LESSEN THE NWD EXTENT OF SGFNT PCPN FM
PREVIOUS RUNS.   THE ETA AND NGM MAX RNFL AXIS HOWEVER REMAINS
NORTH OF THE GFS AXIS...AND WHICH SOLUTION VERIFIES IS ENTIRELY
DEPENDENT ON WHAT EXTENT THE LLVL WINDS TAKE ON A SLY WIND
COMPONENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  FOR NOW OPTED TO BLEND MODEL
DIFFERENCES HERE GIVEN LACK OF A STG SIGNATURE TO PICK AND
CHOOSE ONE MODEL OVR ANOTHER.

...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VLY...

LGT PCPN AMTS EXPECTED IN ASOCTN WITH A SHRTWV TROF DROPPING
SEWD FM CNTRL CANADA.   GFS LOOKS OVERDONE ON AMTS HERE AND
PREFERRED THE LGTR ETA GIVEN THE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.

...E SLOPES OF THE NRN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HI PLAINS...

PIECES OF SHRTWV ENERGY MOVG THRU NWLY FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK
UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD COMBINE TO PRODUCE GNLY LGT PCPN AMTS
ACROSS THIS REGION AS UPSLOPE FLOW DVLPS.   MODELS VERY SIMILAR
ON COVERAGE HERE WITH THE GFS A LITTLE HEAVIER ON AMTS.   

KORTY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV 
24HR QP VT 15/12Z
 0.01 539212 539204 539193 536177 534169 530162 523150 519138 
      513126 505113 499102 492092 484084 480078 477072 471060 
      465050 461045 458042 453038 446035 437032 432028 427027 
      421026 417026 414029 407038 399046 396050 396055 397059 
      405065 408071 412076 416076 418068 422067 426071 433079 
      437084 436094 436103 438109 448114 453118 455123 456128 
      458131 461133 464132 469136 471141 483147 488152 491156 
      497170 502182 507195 509203 510209 511217 512230 509239 
      507249 506261 503273 504280 505282 513286 
 0.01 530961 529951 527946 524942 521939 512932 509928 505924 
      496923 491915 485902 483898 478896 475898 472896 476884 
      481873 484863 485855 487848 491837 492831 494821 493813 
      493808 490804 488800 484798 473801 468805 462806 454801 
      450800 445798 441787 438779 437772 438768 443768 452767 
      457764 457756 456750 453743 448738 443733 440728 439721 
      440715 442705 445703 448702 452703 459703 464699 466696 
      468690 465683 461674 459659 456651 453645 447635 440627 
      432621 424616 420616 415620 416629 418637 419642 414653 
      411658 406664 404670 400674 392678 382685 378690 375695 
      372704 369715 368725 368735 371746 373750 378756 384759 
      392761 396763 397765 381784 375788 370790 359792 355789 
      351785 346780 341779 337779 331782 326785 318790 311792 
      304793 299795 290802 282807 277810 272810 269806 267802 
      262791 259789 254788 248791 242800 238808 232824 232829 
      233835 236838 240839 246838 252836 262832 269833 271835 
      271838 271842 268851 267859 266866 265869 261877 258887 
      257897 256908 258918 259925 255933 250940 247947 243956 
      241965 240975 241980 244983 251000 256006 258010 261012 
      268014 272014 275013 278009 281985 283978 288969 290964 
      293962 298955 305949 310945 312944 322940 327941 330943 
      336949 341952 347951 355944 358942 363940 383941 400928 
      404923 407920 415915 418912 423909 435906 448902 454900 
      458899 463902 465905 470908 466913 460914 451912 447911 
      440910 432911 426913 423915 423919 423923 426929 431940 
      433944 432948 426953 422963 425969 428971 433972 437972 
      446969 450971 449977 444987 441992 440999 439004 437010 
      440017 444019 449019 454014 463009 470008 491011 497011 
      502009 510003 515997 518993 523984 528971 530961 
 0.01 428724 427720 425717 425718 423721 421724 421725 420730 
      421733 425735 427731 427729 428725 428724 
 0.01 425824 424821 422817 421814 421813 419811 416809 413809 
      411814 412818 413821 414821 417824 421826 424827 425824 
 0.01 333909 334906 331905 328904 326904 323905 320906 319910 
      321912 322913 324913 327912 330911 332910 333909 
 0.25 530209 531204 529194 528189 527182 525174 522169 517160 
      512151 508146 506144 503144 500149 504155 511163 516174 
      521186 523197 525203 529209 530209 
 0.25 507966 508956 507952 506948 502944 499943 493943 487944 
      481948 479952 477959 480967 482971 484976 489979 493979 
      499978 502976 505971 507966 
 0.25 432676 430673 427671 421668 416670 412677 408685 405692 
      397696 393698 390703 388709 386718 387725 392735 396740 
      402744 406743 406734 407725 409718 413712 418709 423705 
      428698 433689 433680 432676 
 0.25 482129 481124 478119 477111 477103 476098 473092 470088 
      466089 463093 461097 461104 464109 467113 470116 475120 
      475128 478130 482129 
 0.25 458834 457830 455827 452824 451824 450825 449828 448830 
      448835 448837 448839 448840 452841 455840 457837 458834 
 0.25 442863 441860 440859 437859 436857 434856 431856 428858 
      426860 425861 423864 422866 423870 424874 425877 427880 
      427881 430881 433880 434878 435877 437874 438873 440870 
      442867 442866 442863 
 0.25 452076 450073 449072 447070 444069 442072 444074 446076 
      447077 450079 452076 
 0.25 403846 402838 400830 396824 392822 373819 367819 361822 
      355827 353832 353844 353848 354853 355857 360867 362875 
      360880 358891 354903 352913 352921 355925 368924 378922 
      384922 389920 393915 395911 395902 394896 394888 395884 
      399859 402850 403846 
 0.25 339805 340801 338798 333798 322804 312806 305807 299809 
      295814 292817 288826 284836 281845 277863 270882 267892 
      267903 272914 270922 261938 257948 255958 255964 256971 
      260981 262985 266990 269989 272986 275977 279969 291952 
      302937 303933 304926 305915 308893 310882 313873 318864 
      321855 327845 326839 324836 330830 333825 334821 338812 
      339805 
 0.25 256800 254797 251799 248803 246807 245811 243815 242818 
      242822 242824 244826 249824 252821 254817 255813 256810 
      256803 256800 
 0.50 421689 421685 418683 417682 415684 414686 413689 413691 
      412695 412696 414698 414699 418700 420696 420694 421691 
      421689 
 0.50 391846 391843 389840 385840 379841 374845 372849 370853 
      369859 373865 376867 379867 382865 386860 389855 390851 
      391846 
 0.50 366904 366900 365900 363901 362901 360905 360909 362911 
      364911 366907 366904 366904 
 0.50 327817 326814 324813 319814 312813 308813 303814 298817 
      296820 291827 288834 285843 283851 280867 275882 274891 
      275896 278898 280901 280905 278913 273929 268944 264952 
      265963 266969 268972 270973 275967 278960 283954 289948 
      294941 298935 299926 301907 303888 306870 309863 312854 
      314836 327817 
 1.00 308828 307825 303823 299825 296829 293837 290845 289854 
      287862 288874 288876 291874 298867 302860 303855 304850 
      305841 307832 308828 
 1.00 296896 296889 295886 293884 290888 289892 288898 288901 
      287908 286911 288914 291917 293913 295909 295906 296899 
      296896  
 
$$