AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
300 PM EDT MON OCT 01 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...18Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS STILL SHOWING A VERY            
ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WITH A SHARP TROUGH ASHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC            
NORTHWEST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...RIDGING                
FURTHER DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE PLAINS...ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE                 
CLOSING OFF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE STATES AND ANOTHER RIDGE UP THE               
EAST COAST TO NEW ENGLAND. CLOSER TO HOME WATCHING AN UPPER LOW                 
MOVING WEST OUT OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS SYSTEM IS HAVING LITTLE            
IMPACT ON OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.                                     
AT THE SURFACE...TIGHT GRADIENT CONTINUES OVER THE REGION BETWEEN               
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE                 
SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA. ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT ASHORE             
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE PENINSULA. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING                   
SCT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MOVING ASHORE FROM JACKSONVILLE SOUTHWARD TO              
DAYTONA BEACH AND MELBOURNE. RADAR HAS SHOWN A SLOW DECREASE IN THE             
SHOWER COVERAGE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND REALLY DO NOT EXPECT               
ANYTHING MORE THAN A SPRINKLE OR TWO INTO THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND FOR            
THE REST OF THE DAY. DEBATED DROPPING THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP OVER                
THIS AREA...HOWEVER SINCE THE WX GRIDS ARE ONLY CARRYING                        
SPRINKLES...WILL LEAVE MENTION IN DESPITE THE VERY MINIMAL IMPACT.              
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY STUBBORN SOUTH AND EAST OF A KTLH TO KVLD               
LINE...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...                                
MAIN ISSUE WITH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF THE            
UPPER LOW EXITING THE FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF             
MEXICO AND SOME POSSIBLE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH IT.            
ALL GUIDANCE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE CLOSED UPPER LOW EJECTING INTO              
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH               
CONTINUING TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA               
PENINSULA. BETTER MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL APPROACH THE                    
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE NIGHT BUT APPEARS THAT              
THE PROGRESS WILL BE SLOW ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY INTO              
TUESDAY MORNING. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR SOUTHEAST BIG BEND              
WHERE A CONTINUATION OF A FEW SPRINKLES/SHOWERS FROM THE NORTHEAST              
WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE COOLEST TO THE               
NORTH AND WEST WHERE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 WILL BE COMMON UNDER THE              
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S FOR             
THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE AREA WHERE BETTER ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND              
MORE CLOUD COVER WILL BE PRESENT.                                               
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UNDER THE UPPER LOW OFF             
THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST BY SUNRISE TUESDAY...BUT GUIDANCE IS NOT            
IN AGREEMENT AS TO DEGREE OF STRENGTHENING. GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE            
VERY CLOSE WITH THE NAM BEING THE STRONGER OUTLIER SOLUTION. THE                
NAM HAS A HISTORY OF OVER-DEVELOPING THESE SYSTEM AND SO DECIDED TO             
USE A SIMILAR FORECAST PHILOSOPHY AS LAST NIGHTS SHIFT AND GO WITH A            
GFS/ECMWF BLEND. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS WATCHING THIS LOW             
FOR SOME POSSIBLE SUB-TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL                
DAYS...HOWEVER LOOKING AT THE LARGE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR NOW COVERING              
THE GOMEX IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS...IT WILL TAKE QUITE SOME              
TIME TO GET A SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEM GOING...IF AT ALL. WITH ALL THIS IN            
MIND...WILL ADVANCE THE POPS A BIT FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST DURING              
TUESDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM              
KPFN TO KTLH TO KVLD...AND BRING CHANCE 30-40 POPS UP INTO THE                  
SOUTHEASTERN BIG BEND. BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS FAR                     
NORTH...MAY EVEN BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC FOR RAIN AS BEST DEEP LAYER                
(700-300MB Q-VECTOR FORCING REMAINS JUST TO OUR SOUTH). HIGH TEMPS              
GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S ONCE AGAIN. KEPT THINGS A FEW             
DEGREES COOLER FOR TAYLOR...DIXIE AND LAFAYETTE COUNTIES WITH LOWER             
TO MIDDLE 80S UNDER MORE PERSISTENT CLOUD-COVER AND BETTER SHOWER               
CHANCES.                                                                        
AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PROGRESS WESTWARD ACROSS THE                 
NORTH-CENTRAL GOMEX THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...WILL              
KEEP A GENERAL LOW END CHANCE POP ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE BEST                 
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS COASTAL AREAS. TIMING OF               
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD IS NOT OF THE HIGHEST                  
CONFIDENCE. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON JUST HOW MUCH SPIN-UP WE SEE OF THE             
SURFACE LOW AND ALSO ANY SMALLER SCALE IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE             
UPPER LOW. BASICALLY A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE AT               
ANY TIME...ALTHOUGH A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF QPF IN ANY ONE PLACE               
LOOKS UNLIKELY AND A WASHOUT DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD IS NOT                  
EXPECTED. DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD IN CHECK WITH MORE                  
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. GENERALLY LOOKING FOR MIDDLE 80S DURING THE               
DAY AND MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S AT NIGHT.                                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...                                         
THE 01/00Z EURO COMING IN NOW IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE                
01/00Z GFS ON TAKING THE GULF LOW INTO THE WESTERN GULF TOWARD                  
SOUTHERN TEXAS OR NORTHERN MEXICO. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER               
MOISTURE STAYS OVER OUR REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM ALLOWING              
FOR CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE             
WEEKEND. THE GFS IS BRINGING A FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO THE REGION LATE              
IN THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE 30/12Z EURO WAS MUCH SLOWER WITH THIS              
SYSTEM AND DIDN`T BRING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION UNTIL NEXT            
WEEK. THE 01/00Z EURO IS ABOUT 12 TO 18 HOURS BEHIND THE GFS WITH               
THIS FRONT AND BRINGS IT THROUGH ON MONDAY. IT WOULDN`T ENTIRELY                
SURPRISE ME TO END UP SEEING A BLEND OF THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS AND            
SLOWER EURO PAN OUT. WILL SLOW THE FRONTAL PROGRESSION THROUGH THE              
CWA ABOUT 12 HOURS...WHICH IS TYPICALLY WHAT WE`VE SEEN WHEN                    
FORECASTING LONG RANGE FRONTAL PASSAGES THIS TIME OF YEAR. GENERALLY            
ACCEPTED THE MEX GUIDANCE TEMPS AND POPS...BUT DID ADJUST TEMPS DOWN            
A DEGREE OR TWO BASED ON EXPECTED CLOUD COVER EARLY IN THE LONG TERM            
FORECAST.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLOUDS MOVING SW OFF THE ATLANTIC YIELDING OCNL             
CIGS 7-8K WITH OCCASIONAL CIGS DOWN TO 4K FT WITH DRIZZLE OR                    
SPRINKLES AT KVLD AND POSSIBLY AT KTLH. SUSTAINED NE WINDS TO 15 MPH            
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNSET...THEN 5-10 MPH.              
VFR CONDS LOOK GOOD INTO TUES MORNING WITH MARGINAL MVFR CIGS                   
POSSIBLE MNLY AT KVLD 08Z-13Z. THEN TUES DAYLIGHT CONDS WILL BE                 
SIMILAR TO THIS AFTERNOON REGARDING CIGS AND WINDS.                             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND A                
SURFACE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH WILL KEEP ELEVATED NORTHEAST FLOW GOING             
ACROSS ALL MARINE LEGS INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES             
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE NEAR SHORE LEGS THROUGH TUESDAY                   
MORNING AND ACROSS THE OFFSHORE LEGS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL            
BE WATCHING LOW PRESSURE MOVE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST             
WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT               
RELAXING AND WINDS AND SEAS DROPPING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. FLOW ON             
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS LOW INTO THE LATER PART OF THE WORKWEEK                
WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND UNDER CAUTIONARY LEVELS.               
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
LOOKS LIKE RH VALUES ARE GOING TO GET DOWN TO 35 PERCENT FOR AN HOUR            
OR TWO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE THIS               
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND AND HIGH             
DISPERSION INDICES...WE ONLY NEED ONE HOUR TO VERIFY A WARNING AND              
SO WILL ISSUE A SHORT FUSE RED FLAG WARNING FOR WALTON...JACKSON...             
HOLMES...WASHINGTON...AND CALHOUN COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT.                    
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL THEN KEEP CONDITIONS WELL ABOVE              
CRITICAL LEVELS FOR ALL AREAS THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  64  87  70  86  72 /   0  15  40  40  30                           
PANAMA CITY  66  88  72  87  74 /   0  15  40  40  30                           
DOTHAN       58  87  66  85  68 /   0  05  25  30  20                           
ALBANY       60  87  66  86  69 /   0  05  25  30  20                           
VALDOSTA     64  84  69  87  70 /   0  20  30  40  20                           
CROSS CITY   69  83  69  88  71 /  15  40  40  40  30                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 23Z THIS EVENING FOR                      
WALTON...JACKSON...HOLMES...WASHINGTON...AND CALHOUN COUNTIES.                  
GMZ750/755/730...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 15Z TUESDAY MORNING.                
GMZ770/775...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 21Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON.                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC/MARINE...MROCZKA                                                         
LONG TERM...GODSEY                                                              
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...BLOCK/MROCZKA                                           
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
930 AM EDT MON OCT 01 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS/UPDATE...                                                             
13Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING A VERY ACTIVE NORTHERN              
STREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. AND SOUTHERN CANADA. FEATURES OF                
NOTE INCLUDE A SHARP TROUGH COMING ASHORE FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA TO              
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...RIDGING FURTHER DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE                     
PLAINS...ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKE STATES              
FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER RIDGE UP THE EAST COAST TO NEW ENGLAND.                 
CLOSER TO HOME WE STILL SEE UPPER RIDGING ALONG THE GULF COAST                  
INCLUDING OUR FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER LOW IS SPINNING ACROSS THE                
FLORIDA STRAITS AND SO FAR IS HAVING LITTLE TO NO IMPACT FOR OUR                
WEATHER.                                                                        
AT THE SURFACE...TIGHT GRADIENT CONTINUES OVER THE REGION BETWEEN               
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A SURFACE TROUGH                          
APPROACHING THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE FL PENINSULA. THIS GRADIENT              
IS RESULTING IN A STEADY NORTHEAST FLOW. PLENTY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE            
IS BEING ADVECTED ASHORE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE PENINSULA THIS             
MORNING AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. REGIONAL            
RADAR SHOWS SCT-NMRS SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MOVING ASHORE FROM                       
JACKSONVILLE SOUTHWARD TO DAYTONA BEACH AND MELBOURNE. RADAR HAS                
SHOWN A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS MAKING THE TRIP ACROSS THE PENINSULA TO            
OUR SOUTHEAST BIG BEND ZONES. RADAR SAMPLING IS FAIRLY HIGH IN THIS             
AREA AND AM NOT CONVINCED THAT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS              
REMAINING ALOFT. IF ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY IS REACHING THE SURFACE                
IT SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND AMOUNT TO ONLY A TRACE TO A FEW                     
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. DID ADD A SLIGHT 15-20% POP WITH                 
SPRINKLE WORDING TO THE FORECAST OVER TAYLOR...LAFAYETTE AND DIXIE              
COUNTIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY...BUT               
THIS SHOULD NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT EITHER WAY. SPRINKLES OR              
NOT...THE ATLANTIC MOISTURE IS RESULTING IN HIGHER CLOUDCOVER SOUTH             
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM TLH TO KVLD THIS MORNING AND THIS IS LIKELY             
TO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. WILL UPDATE THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR             
THIS TREND. WITH THE HIGHER CLOUD COVER AND ALSO SOME ADDITIONAL                
COOLING AS A RESULT OF EVAPORATING SHOWERS/SPRINKLES...WILL DROP                
HIGH TEMPS OVER THE EFFECTED REGION ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES.                  
OUTSIDE OF THE EASTERN BIG BEND AREA...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH             
A PLEASANT DAY IN STORE. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE             
AND UPPER 80S CAN BE EXPECTED. 12Z KTLH SOUNDING SHOWING VERY DRY               
AIRMASS ABOVE 750MB (DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 40-50C) AND A LOW PW               
AROUND 1.05".  WITH A PROFILE LIKE THIS...THE DRY FORECAST LOOKS                
JUST FINE. EXPECT A BREEZY DAY INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH NORTHEAST                
WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH COMMON.                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS AROUND 4K AND 7-8K WILL LIKELY CONTINUE                
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH OCCASIONAL BORDERLINE MVFR CIGS DOWN TO 3K               
FT MOVING WEST OFF THE ATLANTIC AND AFFECTING MAINLY KVLD AND KTLH.             
SUSTAINED NE WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH WILL                    
CONTINUE INTO SUNSET. VFR CONDS LOOK GOOD INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS.                 
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS THIS                 
MORNING AND WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.                
WINDS HAVE BEEN RUNNING OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH               
GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS. SEAS AT THE BUOYS HAVE BEEN RUNNING BETWEEN              
5 AND 7 FEET.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
WITH SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE DEWPOINT GRIDS TO REPRESENT MORNING              
TRENDS AND LATEST GUIDANCE...STILL ONLY RECEIVING AN HOUR OR LESS               
OF RH AROUND 35 PERCENT FOR A VERY SMALL AREA OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA            
PANHANDLE ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF I-10. WILL LEAVE WORDING JUST               
WORDING IN THE FWF FOR THE TIME BEING...BUT WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON            
THE DIURNAL AFTERNOON DEWPOINT DECREASE. IF MIXING IS SLIGHTLY                  
BETTER THAN EXPECTED THAN SOME FIRE WX CONCERNS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR             
PLACES LIKE WALTON...JACKSON...AND HOLMES COUNTIES.                             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  86  64  89  68  86 /   0   0  10  10  30                           
PANAMA CITY  86  69  88  71  86 /   0   0  05  10  30                           
DOTHAN       87  59  89  64  89 /   0   0   0  05  20                           
ALBANY       86  61  89  64  88 /   0   0   0  05  20                           
VALDOSTA     84  65  88  67  87 /  10  05  10  20  30                           
CROSS CITY   84  69  86  69  87 /  20  10  30  30  30                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL LEGS.                                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...BLOCK                                                                
REST OF DISCUSSION...MROCZKA                                                    
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
149 PM EDT SUN SEP 30 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINANT THE REGION THROUGH EARLY WEEK.               
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST                   
MON AND THEN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR MID WEEK.                              
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
THIS MORNING STARTED OUT RATHER COOL WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE               
50S AWAY FROM THE COAST. MANY INLAND LOCATIONS DROPPED INTO THE                 
LOWER 50S SO A FEW UPPER 40S LIKELY OCCURRED...MAINLY IN WIND                   
SHELTERED AREAS. CLOSER TO THE COAST TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER                 
50S TO THE MID-UPPER 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE BEACH FRONT.                       
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE NE U.S. WILL HOLD FIRM ACROSS                 
THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE                   
LOWER-MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PROPAGATES SLOWLY EASTWARD. A DRY NE               
FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS RATHER FALL LIKE WITH OBSERVED 1000-850MB                  
THICKNESSES OFF THE 30/12Z RAOBS AT CHS/JAX SUPPORTING HIGHS IN                 
THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. WILL LOWER TEMPS A DEG OR TWO ALONG                
THE LOWER SC COAST BUT TEMPS ELSEWHERE LOOK ON TARGET. DRY WX WILL              
PERSIST WITH CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR NOTED JUST OFF THE SURFACE. THE               
ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE ALONG THE UPPER GA COAST WHERE LOW-LVL                    
MOISTURE IS MORE PLENTIFUL. AN ISOLD SHOWER OR TWO CAN NOT BE                   
COMPLETELY RULED OUT THERE WITH BETTER CHANGES MUCH FARTHER S...                
BUT PROBABILITIES LOOK TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY A MENTION ATTM.                       
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD                  
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH EVEN A FEW SHOWERS NOTED ALONG THE                 
WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM. THE BULK OF THIS CLOUD COVER WILL              
REMAIN OFFSHORE BUT SOME IT WILL LIKELY BRUSH THE COAST THROUGH                 
THE AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY N COASTAL GA. THERE IS ALSO SOME                   
INDICATION THAT A SHALLOW CUMULUS FIELD WILL FORM S OF THE I-16                 
CORRIDOR. SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL INLAND WITH                  
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT THE COAST.                                               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...                          
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR N WILL SLIP OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO MON                 
WHILE SLOWLY LOSING IT/S GRIP OVER US. THE E/NE FLOW MAY BRING A FEW            
SHOWERS TO COASTAL GA BUT OTHERWISE DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.             
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S TONIGHT INLAND WITH MID/UPPER             
60S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS MON WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY WITH MORE OF AN             
ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL ALSO YIELD A FEW MORE                
CLOUDS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                   
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH AN            
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SE U.S. COAST MON AND THEN            
SHIFT W INTO THE GULF OF MEX FOR MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN            
N OF THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO KEEP THINGS MAINLY DRY OVER OUR AREA.                 
HOWEVER...DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE REMOVING POPS COMPLETELY AT THIS             
POINT. AS LONG AS THE WARMER AND DRIER PATTERN PANS OUT...TEMPS                 
SHOULD GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAINLY                 
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND INCREASING AFTER                 
SUNRISE. THIS IS DUE TO THE PINCHING GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH                  
SLOWLY MOVING OFFSHORE AND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHING NORTHWEST            
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA.                                                         
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL               
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THE GOING FORECAST. SOLID SMALL CRAFT                
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA               
THIS MORNING WITH WINDS NE 25 KT AND SEAS 5-8 FT NEAR SHORE AND                 
8-11 FT BEYOND 20 NM. THE SAVANNAH PILOT BOAT RECENTLY REPORTED NE              
WINDS OF 25-30 KT AND SEAS OF 6-8 FT 10 MILES E OF THE SAVANNAH                 
RIVER ENTRANCE. THE CHARLESTON HARBOR PILOT BOAT REPORTED NE WINDS              
20-25 KT WITH SEAS OF 6 FT 8 MILES E OF THE HARBOR ENTRANCE. WE                 
ARE STILL MONITORING FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO A GALE WARNING FOR               
OUR GA WATERS WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.                              
A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT...LOW-LEVEL JETTING AND GOOD                  
MIXING PROFILES...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT...WILL KEEP STRONG NORTHEAST              
WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY. AS A                   
RESULT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL                   
COASTAL WATERS AND THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. THERE IS EVEN THE                     
POSSIBILITY THAT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE LATE TODAY INTO                    
TONIGHT...FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE MAY BE EXPERIENCED OVER THE              
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS...THEREFORE REQUIRING A GALE WARNING TO BE                 
ISSUED AT A LATER TIME.                                                         
THE LONG FETCH WILL ALLOW SWELLS TO CONTINUE TO BUILD...PEAKING                 
OUT LATE MONDAY IN THE 7-9 FT RANGE IN THE SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR SHORE            
WATERS...8-10 FT RANGE IN THE GEORGIA NEAR SHORE WATERS AND 10-12 FT            
IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC                  
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY APPROACH THE             
WATERS MID-WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING BACK INTO THE                
AREA FROM THE NORTH BY THE END OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. WINDS WILL            
BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE MONDAY...AT WHICH TIME THE SMALL CRAFT                   
ADVISORY FOR CHARLESTON HARBOR CAN BE DROPPED. THERE WILL BE SOME               
LAG FROM WHEN WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH TO WHEN SEAS FALL BELOW SMALL             
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMETIME TUESDAY              
NIGHT FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE OUTER               
GEORGIA WATERS.                                                                 
LAKE WINDS...GOOD MIXING PROFILES AND 25-30 KT LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE              
LIKELY RESULTING IN STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS OVER LAKE MOULTRIE THIS              
MORNING. THE LATEST OBSERVATION FROM PINEVILLE SHOWED WINDS                     
GUSTING OVER 20 MPH...WHICH IS PRETTY HIGH CONSIDERING PARCELS ARE              
ORIGINATING OVER LAND VERSUS THE WARMER LAKE WATERS. THE LATEST                 
RUC SOUNDINGS WILL STILL SUPPORT AT LEAST 25 KT WIND GUSTS WITH                 
HIGHER WINDS TONIGHT...SO THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE EXTENDED               
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.                                                         
RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBINATION OF A STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW AND LONG              
PERIOD SWELLS IMPACTING THE SURF ZONE WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF             
RIP CURRENTS TODAY. THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED               
INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.                                       
&&                                                                              
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...                                                      
THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING AND COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAVE EXPIRED.              
WE ARE CAREFULLY MONITORING TRENDS IN CASE ANOTHER ADVISORY IS                  
NEEDED FOR THIS EVENING/S HIGH TIDE CYCLE. COASTAL FLOODING HAS                 
BEEN REPORTED IN A NUMBER OF AREAS TODAY ALONG WITH MODERATE TO                 
SEVERE BEACH EROSION. THE WORST EROSION AND HIGH SURF CONTINUES                 
ACROSS N COASTAL GEORGIA WHERE SURF BREAKERS REMAIN IN THE 5-7 FT               
RANGE. PICTURES FROM THE TYBEE ISLAND AREA INDICATE EXTREMELY                   
DANGEROUS SURF IS OCCURRING. MANY THANKS TO THE SAVANNAH MEDIA                  
FOR RELAYING PICTURES AND REPORTS TO US. ANY ADDITIONAL REPORTS                 
WOULD BE GREATLY APPRECIATED.                                                   
A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT BEGINNING WITH THE HIGH             
TIDE CYCLE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.                         
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN COASTAL                  
GEORGIA WITH TYBEE LIFEGUARD OFFICIALS REPORTING 5 FT BREAKERS AT               
LAST CHECK. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOUTHERN                     
COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA BY TONIGHT OR MONDAY. PRELIMINARY THOUGHTS               
ARE TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY NORTH UP TO EDISTO BEACH...BUT WILL                  
FINALIZE THAT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.                                             
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR GAZ117-119-139-               
     141.                                                                       
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE                
     MONDAY NIGHT FOR GAZ117-119-139-141.                                       
SC...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE                
     MONDAY NIGHT FOR SCZ048>051.                                               
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR SCZ045.                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ350-352-          
     354.                                                                       
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ374.                   
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ330.                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ST/REV                                                                          
</pre> ga                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1217 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISSUED 1019 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007                                              
ONLY SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR 7K FT DECK                
OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS ADVECTING INTO LWV AREA. WOULD EXPECT THAT               
THIS AREA SHOULD EVENTUALLY DISSAPATE BUT MAY BE INDICATIVE OF                  
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO DEVELOP SCATTERED CUMULUS. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY                 
COVER GRIDS UPWARD AND SENT UPDATED ZFP TO REFLECT INCREASED CLOUDS.            
ONLY OTHER CHANGE IS TO REDUCE WIND GUSTS A TAD NEXT FEW HOURS AS               
WINCHESTER PROFILER AND VWP SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGER GUSTS                     
PROBABLY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON.                                   
OTHERWISE LAMP AND MET BOTH SUGGEST CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH              
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY.                          
BARKER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISSUED 1216 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007                                              
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR 18Z WILL REFLECT A SLIGHT SLOW DOWN IN                   
PRECIP ONSET AND FONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT COMPARED WITH 12Z PACKAGE.              
INITIAL TSRA WINDOW NOW EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND 03Z IN PIA AND                 
05Z IN CMI. UNTIL THEN WINDS WILL BE BIGGEST AVIATION HAZARD. IT                
APPEARS THAT 850-925MB MOMENTUM EVIDENT AT WINCHESTER PROFILER                  
THROUGH THE MORNING NOW BEGINNING TO WORK DOWN AND GUSTINESS NOW                
REACHING THE SURFACE. THIS WAS A BIT SLOWER THAN ORIGINAL                       
PROJECTIONS...BUT GUSTS AT 17Z WERE IN THE 21-27 KT RANGE AT THE                
TERMINAL POINTS.                                                                
FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN               
BRINING IN SOME LOW WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE AS DEEP MID-LEVEL LOW                  
PULLS OUT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WILL KEEP LOW CIGS AND GUSTY WEST             
WINDS IN FORECAST THROUGH 18Z.                                                  
BARKER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
ISSUED 345 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007                                               
A SERIES OF VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL SWING THROUGH THE                   
MIDWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE               
WITH GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON... PRECIP AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES              
TONIGHT WITH STRONG SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH VERSUS LACK OF                        
MOISTURE... FOLLOWED BY THE TIMING NEXT SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH LATE              
TUESDAY.                                                                        
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.                                             
STRONG NEUTRAL TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE                       
ROCKIES THIS MORNING... WITH RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING AND WATER VAPOR               
IMAGERY SUPPORTING... A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL                       
COLORADO. LEE CYCLONE TAKING SHAPE OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO AS                   
WELL... WITH 3 AND 6-HR ISALLOBARS SUGGESTING THIS WILL MOVE                    
NORTHEASTWARD INTO SW NEBRASKA THIS MORNING.                                    
DESPITE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE PLAINS... LOW LEVEL                     
MOISTURE ADVECTION REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK. SOLID 60S SFC DEWPOINTS                 
REMAIN ACROSS TEXAS... THOUGH SFC OBS SUGGEST WE ARE FINALLY                    
SEEING A DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE                 
TX PANHANDLE. EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER... WE ARE STILL VERY                
MUCH UNDER CONTROL OF SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST... WHICH              
HAS KEPT THE AIRMASS VERY DRY ACROSS THE REGION. SFC RIDGE AXIS                 
ARCING TO THE SOUTHWEST HAS ALSO KEPT THE GULF MORE OR LESS CLOSED              
OFF FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS... THUS THE VERY NARROW MOIST AXIS.               
VERY LITTLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST REASONING FROM THE PAST FEW                 
SHIFTS. STRONG/DYNAMIC SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH... WITH VERY               
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH... ESPECIALLY THIS SIDE OF THE                     
MISSISSIPPI. SPC 4KM WRF-NMM SUPPORTS PREVIOUS THINKING WITH A                  
NARROW SQUALL LINE APPROACHING THE MISS RIVER LATE THIS                         
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING... THEN RAPIDLY WEAKENING INTO                     
SCATTERED SHOWERS SOON THERE AFTER.                                             
KEPT POPS PRETTY MUCH THE SAME... HIGHEST IN THE FAR WEST...                    
TAPERING OFF QUICKLY TO THE EAST. VERY NARROW WINDOW WHERE STRONG               
LIFT WILL MAKE THE MOST OF WHAT MEAGER MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE...                 
AND ANY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST VERY LONG AS THE FRONT                 
WILL BE HAULING THROUGH.                                                        
HOWEVER... INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON... AND H85               
WINDS INCREASING TO 40-45 KTS... COMBINED WITH EFFICIENT MIXING IN              
A DRY ATMOSPHERE... WILL ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS THIS                   
AFTERNOON. NOTED WIND GUSTS OVER NE/KS YESTERDAY AFTERNOON WERE                 
MAINLY IN THE 25-35 KT RANGE. MODELS SUGGEST STRONGEST CORE OF LOW              
LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST... WITH H85 WINDS DECREASING             
SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON PER NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS.  SOUNDINGS                   
SUGGEST MIXING TO AROUND H85... SIMILAR TO CONDITIONS OVER THE                  
HIGHER-ELEVATION GREAT PLAINS YESTERDAY. CONSIDERING ALL THIS...                
EXPECT WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...                   
GENERALLY BETWEEN 25-30 KTS ACROSS THE AREA... WITH ISOLATED                    
GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS/40 MPH IN TYPICALLY WINDIER LOCATIONS... SUCH               
AS KBMI.                                                                        
MONDAY LOOKS DRY WITH BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING COMING THROUGH...                 
BUT WE COULD SEE SOME STUBBORN STRATOCU DEVELOP AND STICK AROUND                
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA... HOLDING TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW                 
DEGREES.                                                                        
TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM IS TRENDING SLIGHTLY FASTER... WITH                   
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS MORE OR LESS KEEPING PACE WITH ONE ANOTHER...               
AND THE NAM REMAINING A SLOW OUTLIER. HAVE THEREFORE MODESTLY                   
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE WEST FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BULK OF                   
PRECIP WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUE NIGHT.                             
SECOND SYSTEM NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS THE FIRST... BUT WILL BE A                 
LITTLE MORE BROAD AND NOT QUITE AS MUCH OF A QUICK HITTER. GFS                  
SUGGESTS PREFRONTAL TROUGH KICKING OFF CONVECTION LATE TUE                      
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... THEN SPREADING THIS                  
EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.                                                
MOISTURE SHOULD BE A LITTLE BETTER THE SECOND TIME AROUND... BUT                
STILL NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN                       
POTENTIAL. THE DIFFERENCE HERE IS THAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN                     
CONSISTENT IN INDICATING THIS SECOND SYSTEM WILL DRAW UP SOME                   
SUBTROPICAL MID/UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM SOUTH OF BAJA                         
CALIFORNIA.                                                                     
SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR               
WEST TUE AFTERNOON. SOME CONCERN THAT THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP              
MAY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CIRRUS SHIELD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY WHICH              
MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY TO SOME DEGREE... BUT DYNAMICS AND SHEAR                  
WILL MORE THAN MAKE UP FOR IT. CONVECTION COULD START AS                        
SUPERCELLS KICKED OFF BY THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH... MOST LIKELY                   
WEST OF OUR AREA TUE AFTERNOON... QUICKLY MERGING INTO ANOTHER                  
SQUALL LINE AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT                  
CATCHES UP. FRONTAL PASSAGE WOULD BE AFTER DARK ACROSS MUCH OF OUR              
AREA... WHICH MAY HELP LIMIT SVR POTENTIAL TO SOME DEGREE                       
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF STABILIZATION THAT CAN OCCUR. MODELS                 
SUGGEST WEAKER SFC LOW MOVING WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST... THUS SFC                 
GRADIENT WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG... AND MAY THEREFORE                 
NOT KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED UP ENOUGH AFTER SUNSET.                           
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.                                         
DRIER WX RETURNS AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE END OF THE                    
WORKWEEK... BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR                 
THIS TIME OF YEAR. STRONG WAVES THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THIS                
WEEK ARE OF MORE OF A PACIFIC ORIGIN... SO NO COLD WX OUTBREAKS ON              
THE IMMEDIATE HORIZON.                                                          
NO CHANGES WERE MADE BEYOND DAY 5.                                              
HARDIMAN                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
615 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISSUED 345 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007                                               
A SERIES OF VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL SWING THROUGH THE                   
MIDWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE               
WITH GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON... PRECIP AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES              
TONIGHT WITH STRONG SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH VERSUS LACK OF                        
MOISTURE... FOLLOWED BY THE TIMING NEXT SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH LATE              
TUESDAY.                                                                        
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.                                             
STRONG NEUTRAL TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE                       
ROCKIES THIS MORNING... WITH RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING AND WATER VAPOR               
IMAGERY SUPPORTING... A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL                       
COLORADO. LEE CYCLONE TAKING SHAPE OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO AS                   
WELL... WITH 3 AND 6-HR ISALLOBARS SUGGESTING THIS WILL MOVE                    
NORTHEASTWARD INTO SW NEBRASKA THIS MORNING.                                    
DESPITE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE PLAINS... LOW LEVEL                     
MOISTURE ADVECTION REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK. SOLID 60S SFC DEWPOINTS                 
REMAIN ACROSS TEXAS... THOUGH SFC OBS SUGGEST WE ARE FINALLY                    
SEEING A DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE                 
TX PANHANDLE. EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER... WE ARE STILL VERY                
MUCH UNDER CONTROL OF SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST... WHICH              
HAS KEPT THE AIRMASS VERY DRY ACROSS THE REGION. SFC RIDGE AXIS                 
ARCING TO THE SOUTHWEST HAS ALSO KEPT THE GULF MORE OR LESS CLOSED              
OFF FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS... THUS THE VERY NARROW MOIST AXIS.               
VERY LITTLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST REASONING FROM THE PAST FEW                 
SHIFTS. STRONG/DYNAMIC SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH... WITH VERY               
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH... ESPECIALLY THIS SIDE OF THE                     
MISSISSIPPI. SPC 4KM WRF-NMM SUPPORTS PREVIOUS THINKING WITH A                  
NARROW SQUALL LINE APPROACHING THE MISS RIVER LATE THIS                         
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING... THEN RAPIDLY WEAKENING INTO                     
SCATTERED SHOWERS SOON THERE AFTER.                                             
KEPT POPS PRETTY MUCH THE SAME... HIGHEST IN THE FAR WEST...                    
TAPERING OFF QUICKLY TO THE EAST. VERY NARROW WINDOW WHERE STRONG               
LIFT WILL MAKE THE MOST OF WHAT MEAGER MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE...                 
AND ANY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST VERY LONG AS THE FRONT                 
WILL BE HAULING THROUGH.                                                        
HOWEVER... INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON... AND H85               
WINDS INCREASING TO 40-45 KTS... COMBINED WITH EFFICIENT MIXING IN              
A DRY ATMOSPHERE... WILL ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS THIS                   
AFTERNOON. NOTED WIND GUSTS OVER NE/KS YESTERDAY AFTERNOON WERE                 
MAINLY IN THE 25-35 KT RANGE. MODELS SUGGEST STRONGEST CORE OF LOW              
LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST... WITH H85 WINDS DECREASING             
SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON PER NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS.  SOUNDINGS                   
SUGGEST MIXING TO AROUND H85... SIMILAR TO CONDITIONS OVER THE                  
HIGHER-ELEVATION GREAT PLAINS YESTERDAY. CONSIDERING ALL THIS...                
EXPECT WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...                   
GENERALLY BETWEEN 25-30 KTS ACROSS THE AREA... WITH ISOLATED                    
GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS/40 MPH IN TYPICALLY WINDIER LOCATIONS... SUCH               
AS KBMI.                                                                        
MONDAY LOOKS DRY WITH BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING COMING THROUGH...                 
BUT WE COULD SEE SOME STUBBORN STRATOCU DEVELOP AND STICK AROUND                
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA... HOLDING TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW                 
DEGREES.                                                                        
TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM IS TRENDING SLIGHTLY FASTER... WITH                   
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS MORE OR LESS KEEPING PACE WITH ONE ANOTHER...               
AND THE NAM REMAINING A SLOW OUTLIER. HAVE THEREFORE MODESTLY                   
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE WEST FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BULK OF                   
PRECIP WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUE NIGHT.                             
SECOND SYSTEM NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS THE FIRST... BUT WILL BE A                 
LITTLE MORE BROAD AND NOT QUITE AS MUCH OF A QUICK HITTER. GFS                  
SUGGESTS PREFRONTAL TROUGH KICKING OFF CONVECTION LATE TUE                      
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... THEN SPREADING THIS                  
EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.                                                
MOISTURE SHOULD BE A LITTLE BETTER THE SECOND TIME AROUND... BUT                
STILL NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN                       
POTENTIAL. THE DIFFERENCE HERE IS THAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN                     
CONSISTENT IN INDICATING THIS SECOND SYSTEM WILL DRAW UP SOME                   
SUBTROPICAL MID/UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM SOUTH OF BAJA                         
CALIFORNIA.                                                                     
SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR               
WEST TUE AFTERNOON. SOME CONCERN THAT THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP              
MAY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CIRRUS SHIELD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY WHICH              
MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY TO SOME DEGREE... BUT DYNAMICS AND SHEAR                  
WILL MORE THAN MAKE UP FOR IT. CONVECTION COULD START AS                        
SUPERCELLS KICKED OFF BY THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH... MOST LIKELY                   
WEST OF OUR AREA TUE AFTERNOON... QUICKLY MERGING INTO ANOTHER                  
SQUALL LINE AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT                  
CATCHES UP. FRONTAL PASSAGE WOULD BE AFTER DARK ACROSS MUCH OF OUR              
AREA... WHICH MAY HELP LIMIT SVR POTENTIAL TO SOME DEGREE                       
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF STABILIZATION THAT CAN OCCUR. MODELS                 
SUGGEST WEAKER SFC LOW MOVING WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST... THUS SFC                 
GRADIENT WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG... AND MAY THEREFORE                 
NOT KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED UP ENOUGH AFTER SUNSET.                           
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.                                         
DRIER WX RETURNS AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE END OF THE                    
WORKWEEK... BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR                 
THIS TIME OF YEAR. STRONG WAVES THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THIS                
WEEK ARE OF MORE OF A PACIFIC ORIGIN... SO NO COLD WX OUTBREAKS ON              
THE IMMEDIATE HORIZON.                                                          
NO CHANGES WERE MADE BEYOND DAY 5.                                              
HARDIMAN                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISSUED 615 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007                                               
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z MON. AN INCREASING PRESSURE             
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING PLAINS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL                
RESULT IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 15-20 KT SUSTAINED...WITH                
GUSTS AROUND 30 KT AFTER 18Z SUN. THE DEVELOPING PLAINS LOW WILL                
MOVE TO NORTHERN IOWA BY 00Z MONDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING                
SOUTHWARD AND APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A 20-30 MILE WIDE              
BAND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT AS IT SWEEPS THROUGH              
THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS TAF SITES 04Z-08Z MON. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN              
VFR EXCEPT WITHIN CONVECTION...WHERE MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL             
BE LIKELY. STRATOCU WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD                
FRONT AND LINGER BEYOND 12Z MON...WITH CEILINGS RIGHT AROUND THE 3K             
LEVEL.                                                                          
04                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
130 PM EDT SUN SEP 30 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES THROUGH                
EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AND             
LOWER. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING IN REGION OF 850MB THETA E               
AXIS SHOULD ALLOW NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSRA TO                   
DEVELOP. TIMING STILL FAVORS 06-09Z AT KSBN AND 09-12Z AT KFWA. KEPT            
CB MENTION RATHER THAN PREVALING TSRA DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF COVERAGE            
GIVEN NARROW CHANNEL OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND OVERNIGHT TIMING. UPPER             
LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD POOL TO MOVE ACROSS AREA MONDAY ALONG WITH                
EMBEDDED VORT MAX IN TROUGH. INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS                  
EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...                                              
MODELS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT JUMPY WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT               
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...3 TO 6 HOURS SLOWER TONIGHT THAN               
PREVIOUS RUN...SLOWER STILL FROM YSTDY`S RUNS. HAVE STARTED OUT                 
LEANING TOWARDS THE RUC THRU THE FIRST PERIOD...THEN BLENDED TOWARDS            
THE MORE CONSISTENT OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS...WHICH IS THE GFS.               
SURFACE HIGH SETTLED ACROSS THE FAR NE STATES...WITH UPPER LEVEL                
RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE GULF STATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS                 
MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL START TO SHIFT TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON               
WITH THE AXIS REACHING THE APP MTNS. INCREASING GRADIENT FLOW                   
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND MODERATE                 
LOW LEVEL JET THAT WILL START TO MIX DOWN SOME WITH THE HEATING OF              
THE DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP TO              
25 OR 30 MPH POSSIBLE ON THE HIGH END. FILTERED SUNSHINE AS CI                  
BLOW-OFF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SKIES...MAY THIN SOME LATER IN THE                
AFTERNOON. VERY WARM H850 TEMPS FOR THE LAST DAY OF SEPT...AROUND               
13 OR 14C...WELL ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 8 OR 9C. THESE WARM TEMPS                  
ALOFT WILL HELP PRODUCE AFTN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80                
AREAWIDE...NEARLY 10 TO 14 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE DATE.                   
AS THE RIDGE EXITS TO THE EAST THE VIGOROUS TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST               
FROM THE PLAINS DURING THE EVENING...TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT               
WILL CONTINUE THE MODERATE AND GUSTY WINDS. INCREASING HIGH AND                 
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED AS WE APPROACH MIDNIGHT.                         
COMBINATION OF THE WINDS AND THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP              
TEMPS UP TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. LOWS WILL STRUGGLE TO DROP BELOW               
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION. AS THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED                   
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION AFTER 06Z...SHOWERS AND                        
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL NOT                    
IMPRESSIVE AT ALL WITH EITHER MOISTURE CONTENT...OR                             
INSTABILITY...BUT BUFKIT IS SHOWING SOME ELEVATED CAPE. PWATS ONLY              
TOP OUT ABOUT 1.2 TO 1.3 INCHES ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WHICH IS                   
ABOUT 130 PERCENT OF NORMAL. BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE SHRTWV MAY                 
EASILY OVERCOME THESE FACTORS...AS CURRENTLY SEEN ACROSS THE                    
PLAINS TONIGHT. WITH H925 WINDS OVERNIGHT NEAR 40 KNOTS AS PER THE              
GFS...IF DECENT CONVECTION CAN BREAK OUT MIXING DOWN OF SOME                    
DECENT GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE...THOUGH APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS                 
LOOKS UNLIKELY AS DECENT INVERSION/STABLE LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE                
SHOULD BE IN PLACE. PRECIP MAY BE MAINLY VIRGA AT FIRST AS IT WILL              
TAKE SOME TIME TO MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS OVERNIGHT...PRECIP                   
CHANCES TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO DAYBREAK.                  
PRECIP TOTALS WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF                
THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD...WITH MUCH LIGHTER TOTALS ELSEWHERE.                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                         
ENERGETIC PATTN IN STORE THIS WEEK AS WAVE TRAIN OF POTENT NRN                  
STREAM SW TROUGHS MIGRATE ACRS THE CONUS. LEAD SYS EJECTING OUT OF              
CO THIS MORNING SPURNING INTENSE CONVN ACRS SD/MN ALG NOSE OF                   
EMERGING YET TEMPERED GOMEX RTN. 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS IN CLOSE                   
AGREEMENT TAKING INITIALLY INTENSE COLD CORE MID LVL WAVE EWD INTO              
THE WRN LAKES BY MON AFTN. DIURNAL TIMING OF COLD POCKET ALOFT AND              
RTN LL MSTR WEDGE SUGGEST THUNDER PSBL MON. OTHERWISE TEMPERED TEMPS            
FURTHER W/DEEPENING MSTR/CLDS AND INCREASING RAIN CHCS.                         
AFT THAT...SHRT AMPLITUDE RIDGING BUILDS QUICKLY TUE W/TEMPS SOARING            
WELL ABV NORMAL AHD OF SECONDARY UPSTREAM SW OFF THE PAC NW COAST               
THIS MORNING STILL SLATED TO ARRIVE TUE NIGHT. NOT PARTICULARLY SOLD            
YET ON TIMING OF THIS SYS AND WILL MAKE FEW CHGS HERE ESP GIVEN                 
INTENSE LOOK PER VAPOR AND ALL TO COMMON SHARED MODEL BIAS OF                   
PROGRESSING THESE SYSTEMS EWD TOO FAST.                                         
BEYOND THAT...ANOMALOUS SUB TROPICAL RIDGE OF LATE REBUILDS ACRS THE            
SE US IN RESPONSE TO INTENSE SW OVR THE BEARING SEA THIS MORNING.               
INTERESTINGLY BOTH THE 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF/GFS HANDLE THIS SYS                
SIMILARLY AS THEY BOTH DVLP A VRY INTENSE CYCLONE OVR THE MID                   
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY NXT WEEK. TEMPS LATE WEEK/NXT WEEKEND XPCD             
TO CONT WELL ABV NORMAL.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...SCHOTT                                                             
LONG TERM...HOLSTEN                                                             
AVIATION...LASHLEY                                                              
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
730 AM EDT SUN SEP 30 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
GENERALLY CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS THINKING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR                
MARGINAL BUT KIWX PROFILER SHOWING 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT 2KFT AND                   
SURFACE WINDS STILL 4 TO 6 KNOTS. MIXING WITH SUNRISE SHOULD QUICKLY            
ALLOW SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY ENDING LOW            
LEVEL WIND SHEAR THREAT. 10 TO 20 KNOT WINDS EXPECTED TODAY. SURFACE            
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH LINE OF BROKEN                 
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSRA EXPECTED...NEARING KSBN BETWEEN 06-09Z AND            
KFWA 09-12Z. HAVE ADDED AN MVFR RESTRICTION TO KSBN BUT TIMING AND              
WEAKENING NATURE TO FRONT MAKES MVFR QUESTIONABLE AT KFWA AT THIS               
TIME FRAME. STAYED MORE OPTIMISTIC THERE WITH NON RESTRICTED SHRA               
AND VFR CIG.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...                                              
MODELS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT JUMPY WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT               
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...3 TO 6 HOURS SLOWER TONIGHT THAN               
PREVIOUS RUN...SLOWER STILL FROM YSTDY`S RUNS. HAVE STARTED OUT                 
LEANING TOWARDS THE RUC THRU THE FIRST PERIOD...THEN BLENDED TOWARDS            
THE MORE CONSISTENT OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS...WHICH IS THE GFS.               
SURFACE HIGH SETTLED ACROSS THE FAR NE STATES...WITH UPPER LEVEL                
RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE GULF STATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS                 
MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL START TO SHIFT TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON               
WITH THE AXIS REACHING THE APP MTNS. INCREASING GRADIENT FLOW                   
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND MODERATE                 
LOW LEVEL JET THAT WILL START TO MIX DOWN SOME WITH THE HEATING OF              
THE DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP TO              
25 OR 30 MPH POSSIBLE ON THE HIGH END. FILTERED SUNSHINE AS CI                  
BLOW-OFF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SKIES...MAY THIN SOME LATER IN THE                
AFTERNOON. VERY WARM H850 TEMPS FOR THE LAST DAY OF SEPT...AROUND               
13 OR 14C...WELL ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 8 OR 9C. THESE WARM TEMPS                  
ALOFT WILL HELP PRODUCE AFTN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80                
AREAWIDE...NEARLY 10 TO 14 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE DATE.                   
AS THE RIDGE EXITS TO THE EAST THE VIGOROUS TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST               
FROM THE PLAINS DURING THE EVENING...TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT               
WILL CONTINUE THE MODERATE AND GUSTY WINDS. INCREASING HIGH AND                 
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED AS WE APPROACH MIDNIGHT.                         
COMBINATION OF THE WINDS AND THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP              
TEMPS UP TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. LOWS WILL STRUGGLE TO DROP BELOW               
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION. AS THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED                   
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION AFTER 06Z...SHOWERS AND                        
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL NOT                    
IMPRESSIVE AT ALL WITH EITHER MOISTURE CONTENT...OR                             
INSTABILITY...BUT BUFKIT IS SHOWING SOME ELEVATED CAPE. PWATS ONLY              
TOP OUT ABOUT 1.2 TO 1.3 INCHES ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WHICH IS                   
ABOUT 130 PERCENT OF NORMAL. BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE SHRTWV MAY                 
EASILY OVERCOME THESE FACTORS...AS CURRENTLY SEEN ACROSS THE                    
PLAINS TONIGHT. WITH H925 WINDS OVERNIGHT NEAR 40 KNOTS AS PER THE              
GFS...IF DECENT CONVECTION CAN BREAK OUT MIXING DOWN OF SOME                    
DECENT GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE...THOUGH APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS                 
LOOKS UNLIKELY AS DECENT INVERSION/STABLE LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE                
SHOULD BE IN PLACE. PRECIP MAY BE MAINLY VIRGA AT FIRST AS IT WILL              
TAKE SOME TIME TO MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS OVERNIGHT...PRECIP                   
CHANCES TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO DAYBREAK.                  
PRECIP TOTALS WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF                
THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD...WITH MUCH LIGHTER TOTALS ELSEWHERE.                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                         
ENERGETIC PATTN IN STORE THIS WEEK AS WAVE TRAIN OF POTENT NRN                  
STREAM SW TROUGHS MIGRATE ACRS THE CONUS. LEAD SYS EJECTING OUT OF              
CO THIS MORNING SPURNING INTENSE CONVN ACRS SD/MN ALG NOSE OF                   
EMERGING YET TEMPERED GOMEX RTN. 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS IN CLOSE                   
AGREEMENT TAKING INITIALLY INTENSE COLD CORE MID LVL WAVE EWD INTO              
THE WRN LAKES BY MON AFTN. DIURNAL TIMING OF COLD POCKET ALOFT AND              
RTN LL MSTR WEDGE SUGGEST THUNDER PSBL MON. OTHERWISE TEMPERED TEMPS            
FURTHER W/DEEPENING MSTR/CLDS AND INCREASING RAIN CHCS.                         
AFT THAT...SHRT AMPLITUDE RIDGING BUILDS QUICKLY TUE W/TEMPS SOARING            
WELL ABV NORMAL AHD OF SECONDARY UPSTREAM SW OFF THE PAC NW COAST               
THIS MORNING STILL SLATED TO ARRIVE TUE NIGHT. NOT PARTICULARLY SOLD            
YET ON TIMING OF THIS SYS AND WILL MAKE FEW CHGS HERE ESP GIVEN                 
INTENSE LOOK PER VAPOR AND ALL TO COMMON SHARED MODEL BIAS OF                   
PROGRESSING THESE SYSTEMS EWD TOO FAST.                                         
BEYOND THAT...ANOMALOUS SUB TROPICAL RIDGE OF LATE REBUILDS ACRS THE            
SE US IN RESPONSE TO INTENSE SW OVR THE BEARING SEA THIS MORNING.               
INTERESTINGLY BOTH THE 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF/GFS HANDLE THIS SYS                
SIMILARLY AS THEY BOTH DVLP A VRY INTENSE CYCLONE OVR THE MID                   
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY NXT WEEK. TEMPS LATE WEEK/NXT WEEKEND XPCD             
TO CONT WELL ABV NORMAL.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...SCHOTT                                                             
LONG TERM...HOLSTEN                                                             
AVIATION...LASHLEY                                                              
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
413 AM EDT SUN SEP 30 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...                                              
MODELS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT JUMPY WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT LATE          
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...3 TO 6 HOURS SLOWER TONIGHT THAN                    
PREVIOUS RUN...SLOWER STILL FROM YSTDY`S RUNS. HAVE STARTED OUT                 
LEANING TOWARDS THE RUC THRU THE FIRST PERIOD...THEN BLENDED                    
TOWARDS THE MORE CONSISTENT OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS...WHICH IS                
THE GFS.                                                                        
SURFACE HIGH SETTLED ACROSS THE FAR NE STATES...WITH UPPER LEVEL                
RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE GULF STATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS                 
MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL START TO SHIFT TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON               
WITH THE AXIS REACHING THE APP MTNS. INCREASING GRADIENT FLOW                   
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND MODERATE                 
LOW LEVEL JET THAT WILL START TO MIX DOWN SOME WITH THE HEATING OF              
THE DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP TO              
25 OR 30 MPH POSSIBLE ON THE HIGH END. FILTERED SUNSHINE AS CI                  
BLOW-OFF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SKIES...MAY THIN SOME LATER IN THE                
AFTERNOON. VERY WARM H850 TEMPS FOR THE LAST DAY OF SEPT...AROUND               
13 OR 14C...WELL ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 8 OR 9C. THESE WARM TEMPS                  
ALOFT WILL HELP PRODUCE AFTN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80                
AREAWIDE...NEARLY 10 TO 14 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE DATE.                   
AS THE RIDGE EXITS TO THE EAST THE VIGOROUS TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST               
FROM THE PLAINS DURING THE EVENING...TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT               
WILL CONTINUE THE MODERATE AND GUSTY WINDS. INCREASING HIGH AND                 
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED AS WE APPROACH MIDNIGHT.                         
COMBINATION OF THE WINDS AND THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP              
TEMPS UP TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. LOWS WILL STRUGGLE TO DROP BELOW               
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION. AS THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED                   
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION AFTER 06Z...SHOWERS AND                        
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL NOT                    
IMPRESSIVE AT ALL WITH EITHER MOISTURE CONTENT...OR                             
INSTABILITY...BUT BUFKIT IS SHOWING SOME ELEVATED CAPE. PWATS ONLY              
TOP OUT ABOUT 1.2 TO 1.3 INCHES ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WHICH IS                   
ABOUT 130 PERCENT OF NORMAL. BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE SHRTWV MAY                 
EASILY OVERCOME THESE FACTORS...AS CURRENTLY SEEN ACROSS THE                    
PLAINS TONIGHT. WITH H925 WINDS OVERNIGHT NEAR 40 KNOTS AS PER THE              
GFS...IF DECENT CONVECTION CAN BREAK OUT MIXING DOWN OF SOME                    
DECENT GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE...THOUGH APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS                 
LOOKS UNLIKELY AS DECENT INVERSION/STABLE LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE                
SHOULD BE IN PLACE. PRECIP MAY BE MAINLY VIRGA AT FIRST AS IT WILL              
TAKE SOME TIME TO MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS OVERNIGHT...PRECIP                   
CHANCES TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO DAYBREAK.                  
PRECIP TOTALS WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF                
THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD...WITH MUCH LIGHTER TOTALS ELSEWHERE.                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                         
ENERGETIC PATTN IN STORE THIS WEEK AS WAVE TRAIN OF POTENT NRN                  
STREAM SW TROUGHS MIGRATE ACRS THE CONUS. LEAD SYS EJECTING OUT OF              
CO THIS MORNING SPURNING INTENSE CONVN ACRS SD/MN ALG NOSE OF                   
EMERGING YET TEMPERED GOMEX RTN. 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS IN CLOSE                   
AGREEMENT TAKING INITIALLY INTENSE COLD CORE MID LVL WAVE EWD INTO              
THE WRN LAKES BY MON AFTN. DIURNAL TIMING OF COLD POCKET ALOFT AND              
RTN LL MSTR WEDGE SUGGEST THUNDER PSBL MON. OTHERWISE TEMPERED TEMPS            
FURTHER W/DEEPENING MSTR/CLDS AND INCREASING RAIN CHCS.                         
AFT THAT...SHRT AMPLITUDE RIDGING BUILDS QUICKLY TUE W/TEMPS SOARING            
WELL ABV NORMAL AHD OF SECONDARY UPSTREAM SW OFF THE PAC NW COAST               
THIS MORNING STILL SLATED TO ARRIVE TUE NIGHT. NOT PARTICULARLY SOLD            
YET ON TIMING OF THIS SYS AND WILL MAKE FEW CHGS HERE ESP GIVEN                 
INTENSE LOOK PER VAPOR AND ALL TO COMMON SHARED MODEL BIAS OF                   
PROGRESSING THESE SYSTEMS EWD TOO FAST.                                         
BEYOND THAT...ANOMALOUS SUB TROPICAL RIDGE OF LATE REBUILDS ACRS THE            
SE US IN RESPONSE TO INTENSE SW OVR THE BEARING SEA THIS MORNING.               
INTERESTINGLY BOTH THE 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF/GFS HANDLE THIS SYS                
SIMILARLY AS THEY BOTH DVLP A VRY INTENSE CYCLONE OVR THE MID                   
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY NXT WEEK. TEMPS LATE WEEK/NXT WEEKEND XPCD             
TO CONT WELL ABV NORMAL.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 129 AM EDT SUN SEP 30 2007/                         
AVIATION (06Z TAFS)...                                                          
VFR TAF PERIOD UPCOMING...REGION STILL CONTROLLED BY THE LARGE                  
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH              
THE PERIOD WILL BE THE BORDERLINE NON-CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR           
THIS MORNING AND THE GUSTINESS OF THE WINDS THIS LATE MORNING INTO              
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD                  
FRONT. MODERATE LOW LEVEL JET SEEN BOTH VIA LOCAL PROFILERS AND                 
MODELS...LOOKS TO PERSIST THRU THE MORNING. GUSTS IN THE RANGE OF               
20 TO 25 KTS WILL BE LIKELY FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE                     
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NO CIGS OR RESTRICTION TO VSBY EXPECTED THRU THE              
PERIOD...BUT DID MENTION VCSH AT SBN AFTER 04Z MON AS THE FRONT                 
NEARS THE AREA.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...SCHOTT                                                             
LONG TERM...HOLSTEN                                                             
AVIATION...SCHOTT                                                               
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS                                          
321 PM CDT MON OCT 1 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
DAYS 1-2...                                                                     
DISC WILL CENTER PRIMARILY ON THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY                   
TONIGHT AND WHERE MOST OF THE RAIN WILL LIKELY FALL.                            
WV LOOP THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED A HEALTHY PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE             
FROM DECAYING TROPICAL SYSTEM "JULIETTE" OFF THE COAST OF                       
BAJA...NORTHWARD THROUGH ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO.  THIS PLUME OF                 
MOISTURE WAS ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF STRONG MID-UPPER HIGH                
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN OLD MEXICO.  A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK                    
STRETCHED FROM FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH SOUTHERN UTAH INTO               
WESTERN COLORADO.  A POLAR JET STREAK WAS ROTATING AROUND THE                   
EASTERN SIDE OF A TROUGH JUST NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK.              
AS THE AFTERNOON HAS GONE ON...RUC ANALYSIS AND WV LOOP SHOWED THESE            
TWO JETS MERGING.  NAM, GFS, AND RUC MODELS SHOW AN INCREASING                  
REGION OF SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WITHIN THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE OF THE                  
SUBTROPICAL JET AS IT LIFTS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.  THE OLD SURFACE              
POLAR FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH YESTERDAY HAD STALLED OUT ALONG THE             
RED RIVER VALLEY...WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE OLD WASHED OUT FRONT            
LIFTING BACK NORTH...SEEN PRIMARILY BY THE DEWPOINT GRADIENT IN THE             
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.                                                           
UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEWPOINTS OVER WEST TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO                 
SPREAD NORTH THIS EVENING.  GFS AND NAM 900-800MB DEWPOINTS OF                  
13-16C WILL EXIST ALONG AN AXIS CENTERED OVER THE PANHANDLES AND                
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.  WITH THE INCREASED LIFT DUE            
TO THE UPPER JET STREAK DYNAMICS...PLUS 40-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL                    
JET...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO                       
RESULT...DEVELOPING FIRST OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO IN THE 03-06Z            
TIME FRAME...THEN SPREADING AND DEVELOPING NORTHEASTWARD TO                     
ENCOMPASS THE SOUTHERN DDC CWA AFTER 06Z.  WILL GO WITH 60 POPS FOR             
MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN-CENTRAL DDC CWA IN THE 08-12Z TIME FRAME...WITH            
60 POPS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES IN THE 12-15Z TIME FRAME.  A LOOK AT             
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES IN NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEALS A                  
FAIRLY MOIST PROFILE WITHOUT A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF CAPE...HOWEVER              
600-1000 J/KG SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PROMPT A FEW SMALL HAIL REPORTS.              
THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL BE OVER THE FAR EASTERN DDC CWA BY                  
MIDDAY TUESDAY WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER                
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...MAINLY EAST OF DDC CWA.  A RAPID CLEARING IS             
EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY MIDDAY AS                    
SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE REIGNS.  BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE            
MID-UPPER 70S WITH LOTS OF SUN BY AFTERNOON.  TUESDAY                           
NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH CENTER WILL BE OVER WESTERN KANSAS WITH                    
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ALLOWING LOWS TO BOTTOM OUT            
IN THE MID-UPPER 40S.  WEDNESDAY...MORE SUN AND WARMER WITH                     
SUBSIDENCE PREVAILING AND A RETURN FLOW OF SOUTH WINDS BY                       
AFTERNOON.  HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 80S PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE IN            
DDC CWA. -UMSCHEID                                                              
DAYS 3-7...                                                                     
THE MAIN TROUBLE SPOT IN THE EXTENDED IS POPS FOR THE LATE WEDNESDAY            
INTO THURSDAY PERIODS.  A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IS EVIDENT IN THE              
ECMWF...THE GFS AND THE NAM...EACH WITH A LITTLE DIFFERENT SPEED AND            
LOCATION.  THE GFS REMAINS THE QUICKEST WITH THIS UPPER                         
SYSTEM...KEEPING THE WAVE NORTH OF OUR AREA AND CARRYING IT THROUGH             
THE BROAD WAVE...NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  WITH              
THAT TRACK...THE GFS DOES NOW PRODUCE ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION              
FOR OUR SOUTHWEST KANSAS CWA.  HOWEVER...BOTH THE NAM AND THE ECMWF             
PULL AN UPPER TROUGH THROUGH KANSAS INTO MISSOURI/OKLAHOMA RATHER               
QUICKLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...LEAVING THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES            
WIDE OPEN FOR LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT.  THIS FEATURE CROSSES                
SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.  THUS...HAVE               
LEFT THE 20 POPS FOR WEDNESDAY GOING...INCREASING MY EASTERN ZONES              
TO NEAR 30 POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                                            
AFTER THIS ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER WAVE PASSES...YET ANOTHER WAVE IS              
INDICATED BY THE EC AND ALSO THE GFS TO SWOOP DOWN FROM OUR                     
NORTHWEST AND CROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.  AM NOT AS CONFIDENT WITH THIS              
TRACK AS IT SEEMS TOO SOON TO GET A WAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST.  DID               
HOWEVER LEAVE THE LOW TEEN POPS GOING FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND                
NIGHT...WHICH CAN BE ADJUSTED UPWARD OR DOWNWARD AS THAT TIME                   
APPROACHES THE NEARER TERM AND FUTURE MODEL RUNS CONFIRM THE UPPER              
LOW TRACK.                                                                      
FOR TEMPERATURES...STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.                
DID LOW MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...TO COME              
IN LINE WITH SURROUNDING ISC GRIDS BETTER.  FRIDAY SHOULD BE THE                
WARMEST DAY WITH THE DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTING IN WARM LOW LEVEL            
AIR.  MIN TEMPS WERE TAPERED DOWN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...EXPECTING A             
FROPA ON THURSDAY NIGHT.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
AS FOR AVIATION CONCERNS...BREEZY SOUTH WINDS IN THE 18G26KT RANGE              
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 01-02Z THIS EVENING...THEN BACK OFF TO                    
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY AT 15KT OR LESS.  VFR MID AND HIGH SCATTERED                
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER                           
MIDNIGHT...WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER 09Z OR SO.  BKN-OVC015 WILL            
BE COMMON AFTER 09Z...WITH SCATTERED RW/TRW DEVELOPING AT HYS AFTER             
08Z...GCK AFTER 10Z AND DDC AFTER 12Z.                                          
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DDC  64  77  49  82 /  60  70   0   0                                           
GCK  61  77  47  83 /  50  30   0   0                                           
EHA  58  79  51  83 /  50  30   0   0                                           
LBL  64  79  50  84 /  60  40   0   0                                           
HYS  66  74  47  81 /  50  60   0   0                                           
P28  68  78  53  80 /  50  70  10   0                                           
&&                                                                              
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FN25/12/12                                                                      
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
142 PM MDT SUN SEP 30 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...JUST COMPLETED UPDATE WHICH CANCELLED THE ADVISORY.               
ADJUSTED MAX TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.               
ALSO ADJUSTED WINDS BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND RUC. ALSO                  
ADJUSTED OTHER HOURLY GRIDS.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE TO                
DECREASE BELOW 10 KNOTS BETWEEN 21Z AND 23Z. AT BOTH SITES...VFR                
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS             
CONTINUING THROUGH 15Z MONDAY. AFTER 15Z MONDAY...EXPECT SOUTH WINDS            
TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS.                                         
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BULLER                                                                          
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
550 AM MDT SUN SEP 30 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...WINDS REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO              
AND SHERMAN COUNTY IN KANSAS. HAVE STARTED THE ADVISORY AT 12Z                  
INSTEAD OF 16Z AS A RESULT. THE CURRENT WIND GUSTS MAY BE FROM THE              
SUDDEN PRESSURE RISE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. LATEST RUC SHOWS                
THE MORE SUSTAINED WINDS STILL IN NEBRASKA. HOWEVER...THEY TOO                  
WOULD HAVE REACHED OUR AREA BEFORE THE INITIAL 16Z START TIME SO                
IT LOOKS GOOD NOW TO GET IT STARTED A BIT EARLIER.                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 AM MDT SUN SEP 30 2007/                         
.UPDATE...BASED ON MY CURRENT WIND GUST GRIDS ADVISORY CRITERIA                 
GUSTS WILL BE REACHED GENERALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE                  
TRI-STATE AREA. SO...WILL BE ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR SEVERAL                
HOURS TODAY. NO OTHER CHANGES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 AM MDT SUN SEP 30 2007/                         
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON THE STRENGTH OF NORTHWEST                
WINDS TODAY/HOW COOL IT WILL BE AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.                   
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY NIGHT)...                                            
TODAY-TONIGHT...A STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER CURRENTLY                    
LOCATED IN NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST                  
PORTION OF THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS MORNING THEN LIFT NORTHEAST AND              
BY MONDAY MORNING REACH THE GREAT LAKES.                                        
800 MB WINDS FROM THE NAM AND GFS ARE QUITE A BIT STRONGER THEN                 
WHAT WAS ADVERTISED YESTERDAY...PERHAPS THE REASON IS THE LATEST                
MODELS ARE STRONGER AND A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE UPPER LOW                  
CENTER AND ITS TRACK. LOOKS LIKE GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ARE                      
EXPECTED WITH BEST CHANCE OF ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS ACROSS THE                 
EASTERN 1/2 OF THE AREA. WITH THE QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE STORM                   
SYSTEM WINDS LOOK TO QUICKLY WEAKEN BY LATE AFTERNOON BUT STILL                 
GUSTY.                                                                          
GIVEN THE EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH TRACK WRAPAROUND PRECIP IS                     
POSSIBLE GENERALLY NEAR THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER THROUGH EARLY                
AFTERNOON. WITH LITTLE TO SURFACE INSTABILITY AND WEAK LAPSE                    
RATES ANY PRECIP THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD BE OF A SHOWERY TYPE.                 
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE                  
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER                  
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH BY 12Z TUESDAY SHOULD BE STILL WEST OF                 
THE AREA. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WITH               
WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS               
MONDAY NIGHT PER SURROUNDING OFFICES AND GUIDANCE QPF/POPS.                     
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH BRINGING                     
ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. DRIER AIR QUICKLY FOLLOWS BY               
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING LEADING TO A CLEAR NIGHT. WILL KEEP                
SOME LOW POPS EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER TUESDAY MORNING                          
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY)...                                              
NO CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MVFR/IFR CLOUDS EXPECTED IN THE KGLD AND KMCK AREAS AROUND 14Z                  
BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHOS WINDS WILL GUST INTO THE 40-45 KT RANGE                
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL RISE              
INTO THE MVFR RANGE AS THE STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES NORTHEAST. WINDS              
HOWEVER WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGH. BETWEEN 21Z-00Z EXPECT A RAPID                 
CLEARING WITH LITTLE IF ANY CLOUDS BY 00Z. WINDS WILL SLOWLY                    
SUBSIDE AND BY 00Z BE NEAR CALM BEFORE RETURNING FROM THE SOUTH                 
AFTER 06Z.                                                                      
SHOWERY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AFTER 14Z...ENDING BY 21Z.                    
&&                                                                              
&&                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MDT /5 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR                 
     KSZ001>004-013>016-028-029.                                                
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MDT /5 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR                 
     NEZ079>081.                                                                
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ090-091.                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DDT/DDT                                                                         
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA                                          
942 PM CDT MON OCT 1 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS EXTREME E TX/NW LA...AND PORTIONS         
OF SW AR THIS EVENING...WITH AR SHOWERS TIED TO AN 850MB DIFFERENTIAL MOISTURE  
BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK 850MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER CNTRL/S               
AR...AND REMAINING SFC BASED INSTABILITY...PER LATEST RUC/LAPS ANALYSIS.        
HOWEVER...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH ALL TOGETHER WITHIN THE NEXT     
HOUR OR TWO WITH FURTHER SFC STABILIZATION...AND CAN BE HANDLED IN NOWCASTS.    
OTHERWISE...CU FIELD SLOWLY MIGRATING W ACROSS NW LA/E TX/SW AR AROUND THE      
RIDGE...MAY TAKE MORE OF A TURN TO THE N LATE TONIGHT...WHEN                    
20-30 KT S LLJ GET CRANKING ACROSS OK/NCNTRL TX. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE           
THE LAST FEW NIGHTS...WILL ALSO SEE LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP MAINLY OVER E TX         
AROUND THE PERIPHERY THE THE SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE E                
COAST...SW THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES AND INTO CNTRL LA. MAY                 
ALSO SEE PATCHY DENSE FOG FORM AGAIN OVER DEEP E TX OVERNIGHT...AS              
THE SFC SETUP HAS REMAINED MUCH THE SAME...AND HAVE INSERTED THIS INTO          
THE ZONE UPDATE THIS EVENING. ALSO MAY SEE PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOP             
WHERE EARLIER COMPLEX OF STORMS RAINED THEMSELVES OUT OVER SCNTRL               
AR...INCLUDING NEVADA AND UNION COUNTIES.                                       
NOT BUYING INTO THE COOLER TEMPS MOS IS ADVERTISING ACROSS THE REGION           
TONIGHT...AND WILL PLAY THE PERSISTENCE GAME OVER SW AR/NW LA/E TX.             
NOTICIABLLY DRIER AIR TO THE E OVER MS MAY BACKBUILD A TAD W INTO OUR           
EXTREME E NCNTRL LA PARISHES...BUT FEEL THAT LOWER 60S FOR THESE AREAS          
WILL BE A STRETCH. THUS...HAVE RAISED MIN TEMPS ACROSS THE BOARD AT             
LEAST A CATEGORY...GIVEN NEUTRAL OR EVEN WEAK WARM ADVECTION/MIXING.            
UPDATE ALREADY OUT.                                                             
15                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE LINGERED THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE              
BY 04Z. OTHERWISE VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ELD.              
OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE ELD AREA EARLIER TODAY AND LEFT THE                
GROUND SATURATED WHICH WAS RESULTING IN SHALLOW FOG. EXPECT IFR/LIFR            
VSBYS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHTTIME HOURS IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL AR             
WITH CONDITIONS NOT IMPROVING UNTIL AFT 14Z. 00Z SOUNDINGS INDICATED            
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE WEAKENED PAST 24 HRS...BUT LOW LEVEL             
MOISTURE STILL PLENTIFUL. EXPECTING LESS IFR CIGS AND VSBYS TUESDAY             
MORNING AREA WIDE...BUT STILL THINK THERE WILL BE VSBY RESTRICTIONS             
AS LOW AS LIFR AT LFK AND MAYBE OCH FROM FOG AFT 08Z...CONTINUING               
THROUGH 13Z. SUNRISE HAZE/FOG MAY BRING VSBYS DOWN MOST AREAS TO                
MVFR...INCLUDING SHV...TYR...GGG AND MLU. 00Z ISSUE OF TAFS                     
INDICATES SOME IFR CIGS ACROSS EAST TEXAS AFT 09Z...BUT MAY BACK OFF            
ON THE 06Z ISSUE...GIVEN THE EASTERLY WINDS.  CONVECTION...IF ANY               
TUESDAY...WILL BE ISOLATED AND NOT MENTIONED IN TAFS. SURFACE WINDS             
MOSTLY SOUTHERLY AND LESS THAN 10KTS. /14/                                      
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
SHV  73  91  66  91 /  10  10  10  10                                           
MLU  66  91  61  91 /   0  10  10  10                                           
DEQ  70  91  67  87 /  10  10  40  30                                           
TXK  72  90  68  89 /  10  10  20  30                                           
ELD  68  90  64  89 /  10  10  10  20                                           
TYR  72  91  69  91 /  10  10  10  20                                           
GGG  71  91  68  90 /  10  10  10  20                                           
LFK  72  91  67  92 /  10  10  10  10                                           
&&                                                                              
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AR...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
15/14                                                                           
</pre> la                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
145 PM EDT MON OCT 1 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 1132 AM EDT)...                                          
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE IS FOG AND PRECIPITATION             
POTENTIAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON.                                                   
TODAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A CLOSED LOW OVER                   
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN THIS               
AFTERNOON.  RIDGES ARE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI               
RIVER VALLEY. A TROUGH IS ALSO OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SHORTWAVE             
ENERGY IS SWEEPING THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.P. SURFACE RIDGE IS            
OVER ONTARIO PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN U.P. DEEP MOISTURE            
WILL SHIFT INTO LOWER MICHGIAN THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE RH WILL              
REMAIN 90 PERCENT OR GREATER OVER THE U.P. THIS AFTERNOON AS THE                
MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER A SURFACE INVERSION. CLOUD COVER WILL SLOW            
THE HEATING AND THE CURRENT GRIDDED TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK                     
REASONABLE.                                                                     
TONIGHT AND LATER...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN MONTANA WILL                
CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD MARCH...REACHING THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BY 12Z               
TUE. THE COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY THE LEE TROUGH...ASSOCIATED WITH THE            
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD REACH GRAND FORKS AROUND THE SAME TIME. CLOSER              
TO HOME...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CAUSE THE UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD UP               
INTO UPPER MICHIGAN...RESULTING IN A DRY NIGHT WITH SUBSIDENCE                  
ALOFT. HOWEVER...THIS SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ALOFT WITH LOW LEVEL                
MOISTURE TRAPPED AT THE SURFACE PRESENTS A CONCERN FOR                          
FOG...ESPECIALLY WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PORTION            
OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS CROSSES.            
GUIDANCE ALONG WITH SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY FAVORABLE SCENARIO FOR                
FOG...AND THUS HAVE INCREASED THE COVERAGE FURTHER TO GO WITH                   
WIDESPREAD FOG AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG. NEXT SHIFT MAY NEED TO ISSUE             
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING TOWARDS SUNRISE OUT IN             
THE WESTERN U.P. MAY START TO BREAK UP THE FOG...PARTICULARLY IN                
DOWNSLOPE AREAS. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARM WITH STRATUS               
AND FOG AROUND.                                                                 
TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...THE MAIN FOCUS WILL REMAIN ON THE IMPACTS OF               
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT MOVES EASTWARD TO THE MN/WI LINE AT 00Z            
WED AND TO EASTERN ONTARIO BY 12Z WED. THE RAPID PROGRESSION OF THIS            
FEATURE ONLY ALLOWS FOR A NARROW AXIS OF MOISTURE TO ADVECT UP AHEAD            
OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...AS INDICATED BY 850MB THETA-E                    
ADVECTION. THUS IT DOES NOT APPEAR ANY MORE THAT SHOWERS OR STORMS              
COULD FORM DOWNSTREAM OVER NORTHERN WI AND ALONG THE WI BORDER.                 
TIMING OF THE FEATURE HAS SPED UP WITH THE 00Z GFS/12Z                          
ECMWF...SHOWING THE COLD FRONT AND AXIS OF GREATEST 850MB THETA-E               
ADVECTION AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN NW WI AND IWD AREA AT                     
18Z...OVER THE CENTRAL U.P. AT 00Z...AND EAST OF SAULT STE MARIE BY             
06Z. THE UKMET AND NAM ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE TROUGH...THUS WILL             
NOT CLEAR PCPN OUT AS FAST AS THE GFS/ECMWF. CHANGES MAY BE REQUIRED            
OVER THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS AS THE EXACT TROUGH TIMING BECOMES MORE                
CERTAIN. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE DYNAMICS AND WARM ADVECTION SHOWN            
WITH THE TROUGH (12 HR 500MB HEIGHT CHANGE OF 100-130 M AND 850MB               
WINDS OF 40 KT)...THINK IT IS REASONABLE TO CONTINUE WITH LIKELY                
POPS. SOME SUN IS POSSIBLE ON TUE AHEAD OF THE PCPN...BUT IT IS                 
UNCERTAIN HOW LONG GIVEN THE TIMING DIFFERENCES. THE SLOWER NAM                 
SOLUTION WOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH NEAR 70 WHEREAS THE FASTER GFS              
MAY KEEPS HIGHS MORE IN THE MID 60S. PLAN ON GOING IN-BETWEEN THE               
TWO FOR NOW.                                                                    
WED AND THU...QUIET WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE                  
EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD...DUE TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY                 
BACKING SW BRINGING MILD DOWNSLOPED PACIFIC AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES            
REGION. GFS SOUNDINGS AND ECMWF RH PROGS DEPICT VERY LITTLE IN THE              
WAY OF CLOUDS DURING THIS PERIOD TOO...EXCEPT ACROSS WESTERN LAKE               
SUPERIOR WED NIGHT AND THU WHERE SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS AND                
CREATES A MID CLOUD DECK. GIVEN PLENTY OF SUN BOTH DAYS...DRY                   
AIR...AND 850MB TEMPS RISING FROM 8C AT 18Z WED TO 12C AT 18Z THU               
SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S BOTH DAYS. S TO SW                   
SURFACE WINDS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC               
AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS MANITOBA TO HUDSON BAY WILL YIELD AN             
EXTRA COUPLE DEGREES FOR DOWNSLOPE AREAS. BY LATE THU...PRESSURES               
FALLING OVER THE PLAINS SHOULD CAUSE WINDS TO BACK MORE                         
SOUTHEASTERLY...RESULTING IN SOME COOLING ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE               
KEWEENAW PENINSULA.                                                             
THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN...MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE              
MECHANISM THAT CAUSES THE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE AREA ON WED TO BACK SW            
ON THU...A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING DOWN INTO THE WESTERN U.S.. THERE ARE            
TWO QUESTIONS WITH THE TROUGH...HOW DEEP IT WILL BE AND HOW QUICK IT            
PUSHES EASTWARD. ECMWF AND GFS RUNS SEEM TO BE CONSISTENT WITHIN                
THEMSELVES WITH TWO SCENARIOS. THE ECMWF ALLOWS THE TROUGH TO DIG               
DOWN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA BY 00Z SUN...PUMPING UP A LARGE                 
RIDGE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.. IF THIS OCCURS...THE ECMWF            
DEPICTS A VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY ON SAT WITH BREEZY SOUTH                      
WINDS...850MB TEMPS OF 16-18C AND 850MB DEWPOINTS AROUND 14C. THIS              
IS THEN FOLLOWED BY A POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN EVENT ON SUN. ON THE OTHER            
SIDE OF THE COIN...THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND SHOWS THE BASE OF            
THE UPPER TROUGH (AN UPPER LOW) INTO THE OMAHA AREA BY 00Z SUN WHICH            
LIFTS UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA ON SUN. IF THIS SOLUTION                     
OCCURS...THE GFS WRAPS UP THE UPPER LOW SO MUCH AND HAS 850MB TEMPS             
DOWN TO -4C AT IWD BY 12Z ALONG WITH PLENTY OF QPF...SUGGESTING A               
POSSIBLE SNOWSTORM. BASED ON THE CANADIAN AND UKMET WHICH LOOK MORE             
LIKE THE ECMWF...THE GFS SOLUTION IS VERY MUCH AN OUTLIER...THOUGH              
SNOWSTORMS FOR THE FIRST WEEKEND OF OCTOBER ARE DEFINITELY NOT                  
UNCOMMON HERE. IN ANY EVENT...EITHER SOLUTION SUGGESTS AN                       
INTERESTING WEEKEND IS IN STORE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR RECORD HIGHS               
ALONG WITH HEAVY PCPN.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
THERE WILL BE SOME VERY LIMITED DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS AT                     
KCMX...MVFR CEILING WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY. -SHRA HAVE MOVED               
EAST OF KSAW AT THIS TIME. A NORTH WIND AT KSAW CONTINUE TO BRING               
COLD AIR OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR AT THE LOW LEVELS CREATING A SURFACE              
BASED INVERSION TRAPPING FOG AT THE SURFACE. ALSO INVOLVED WILL BE              
SOME UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WHICH WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS OVER THE SITE                
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE SUGGEST A TEMPORARY RISING IN                   
VISIBIILTY AS TEMPERATURES RISE A LITTLE REDUCING SURFACE RH A                  
LITTLE. AS TEMPERATURES COOL THIS EVENING CONDITIONS WILL                       
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY AT BOTH SITES...LOWERING CEILINGS AND                       
VISIBILITY. GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA BY            
LATE MORNING ON TUESDAY WILL SUPPORT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OF                   
CONDITIONS.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FCST ISSUANCE)...                           
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THRU THE DAY TODAY AS LOW PRES OVER NE IA MOVES             
NE AND WEAKENS...DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. AS THE WINDS DIMINISH...             
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. NEXT               
ACTIVE LOW PRES TROUGH WILL RACE E AND CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUE                  
NIGHT. SRLY WINDS WILL AGAIN RAMP UP IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH...AND            
IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS COULD OCCUR            
OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE LATE TUE AFTN/EVENING. WINDS FOR THE                
REMAINDER OF THE FCST (WED THRU FRI) SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 10              
TO 20KT RANGE WITH AN OCCASIONAL PERIOD OF 15 TO 25KT.                          
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS AND TODAY...DLG                                                        
TONIGHT AND LATER DISCUSSION...AJ                                               
AVIATION...DLG                                                                  
MARINE...ROLFSON                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
740 AM EDT MON OCT 1 2007                                                       
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION                                                 
.SYNOPSIS (ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT)...                                             
07Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED AN UPPER              
LEVEL TROUGH FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO INTO IOWA...WITH A 573 DAM LOW               
NEAR CEDAR RAPIDS IOWA. RIDGES ARE PRESENT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE                
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND WESTERN PLAINS. FARTHER WEST...A               
MORE IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CAN BE SEEN ALONG THE PACIFIC NW             
COASTLINE. ISENTROPIC LIFT DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER LOW...IN ADDITION            
TO UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 110 KT              
JET NEAR THUNDER BAY ONTARIO...IS SUPPORTING SHOWERS FROM EASTERN               
WI/LAKE MI UP INTO THE CENTRAL U.P.. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS OVER THE             
AREA AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE             
WARM...CLOSER TO AVERAGE HIGHS. TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...                      
OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN            
MN FLOWING IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT CROSSING WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.              
CMX AND IWD NOW HAVE LIFR CEILINGS WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES. 00Z INL              
SOUNDING SHOWED THIS WITH A SATURATED LAYER NEAR 875MB WHICH                    
REPRESENTS THE COLD FRONTAL INVERSION. CLOUDS CLEAR OUT ACROSS                  
WESTERN MN AND THE DAKOTAS WHERE A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE               
EXISTS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S. FARTHER WEST...LEE TROUGHING IS               
ALREADY DEVELOPING ALONG THE ROCKIES...WITH A 1005MB LOW CENTERED               
NEAR EDMONTON ALBERTA DOWNSTREAM OF THE PACIFIC NW TROUGH.                      
NOTE: WE DID NOT BREAK THE ALL-TIME SEPTEMBER PCPN RECORD AT THE                
OFFICE. AT MIDNIGHT EST...THE TOTAL SEPTEMBER RAINFALL WAS 7.48                 
INCHES...ABOUT 0.12 OF AN INCH SHORT OF THE 7.60 INCH RECORD. HAD               
THE CURRENT SHOWERS BEEN A FEW HOURS EARLIER...WE PROBABLY WOULD                
HAVE BROKE IT.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT)...                                           
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AND PCPN FOR                 
TUE/TUE NIGHT.                                                                  
TODAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC NW COASTLINE IS PROGGED            
TO MOVE INTO WESTERN MONTANA BY 00Z...FORCING RIDGING TO BUILD UP               
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE DULUTH AREA BY 00Z WITH             
500MB HEIGHTS OF 580 DAM. THIS RIDGING WILL ALSO FORCE THE UPPER LOW            
OVER IOWA TO CONTINUE MOVING...THOUGH IT APPEARS MORE EAST THAN                 
NORTHEAST AS EXPECTED YESTERDAY. BY 00Z...MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE               
THE LOW NEAR DETROIT. ALTHOUGH THE TRACK IS FARTHER SOUTH...VERY                
LITTLE CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE PCPN FORECAST. SHOWERS PRESENT OVER            
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AND FALL              
APART AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND FILLS...IN ADDITION TO THE JET            
STREAK OVER THUNDER BAY MOVING NE AWAY FROM THE AREA. LOW CLOUDS...             
LIKELY WITH CLOUD TOPS ONLY NEAR 3000 FT DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AND                  
DRYING OCCURRING ALOFT...SHOULD FILL IN IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER                
LOW. RECENT RAINFALL WILL HELP MATTERS TOO IN DEVELOPING THE LOW                
CLOUDS/FOG. THE LATE TIME OF YEAR WILL ALSO HELP IN PREVENTING THE              
LOW CLOUD DECK FROM MIXING OUT. IN ADDITION...WITH THE SURFACE COLD             
FRONT CROSSING THE CWA...NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND IT SHOULD RESULT IN              
SOME FOG AND/OR UPSLOPE DRIZZLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OUT OF THE              
LOW CLOUD DECK. APPEARS THE DRIZZLE WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE              
NORTH CENTRAL U.P. WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS DEEPEST...THOUGH SOME            
DRIZZLE/FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING IN THE WESTERN U.P. HIGHER                 
TERRAIN AS SURFACE OBS FROM IWD AND CMX INDICATE. GIVEN THE                     
CLOUDS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO HAVE A HARD TIME CLIMBING MUCH                  
TODAY. GENERALLY FOLLOWED MET/MAV GUIDANCE VALUES.                              
TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN MONTANA WILL CONTINUE ITS             
EASTWARD MARCH...REACHING THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BY 12Z TUE. THE COLD              
FRONT...CURRENTLY THE LEE TROUGH...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH             
SHOULD REACH GRAND FORKS AROUND THE SAME TIME. CLOSER TO HOME...THE             
UPPER TROUGH WILL CAUSE THE UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD UP INTO UPPER                  
MICHIGAN...RESULTING IN A DRY NIGHT WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.                      
HOWEVER...THIS SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ALOFT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE              
TRAPPED AT THE SURFACE PRESENTS A CONCERN FOR FOG...ESPECIALLY WITH             
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT                 
HOURS AS THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS CROSSES. GUIDANCE ALONG              
WITH SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY FAVORABLE SCENARIO FOR FOG...AND THUS                
HAVE INCREASED THE COVERAGE FURTHER TO GO WITH WIDESPREAD FOG AND               
AREAS OF DENSE FOG. NEXT SHIFT MAY NEED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG                    
ADVISORY. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING TOWARDS SUNRISE OUT IN THE WESTERN             
U.P. MAY START TO BREAK UP THE FOG...PARTICULARLY IN DOWNSLOPE                  
AREAS. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARM WITH STRATUS AND FOG                 
AROUND.                                                                         
TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...THE MAIN FOCUS WILL REMAIN ON THE IMPACTS OF               
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT MOVES EASTWARD TO THE MN/WI LINE AT 00Z            
WED AND TO EASTERN ONTARIO BY 12Z WED. THE RAPID PROGRESSION OF THIS            
FEATURE ONLY ALLOWS FOR A NARROW AXIS OF MOISTURE TO ADVECT UP AHEAD            
OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...AS INDICATED BY 850MB THETA-E                    
ADVECTION. THUS IT DOES NOT APPEAR ANY MORE THAT SHOWERS OR STORMS              
COULD FORM DOWNSTREAM OVER NORTHERN WI AND ALONG THE WI BORDER.                 
TIMING OF THE FEATURE HAS SPED UP WITH THE 00Z GFS/12Z                          
ECMWF...SHOWING THE COLD FRONT AND AXIS OF GREATEST 850MB THETA-E               
ADVECTION AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN NW WI AND IWD AREA AT                     
18Z...OVER THE CENTRAL U.P. AT 00Z...AND EAST OF SAULT STE MARIE BY             
06Z. THE UKMET AND NAM ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE TROUGH...THUS WILL             
NOT CLEAR PCPN OUT AS FAST AS THE GFS/ECMWF. CHANGES MAY BE REQUIRED            
OVER THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS AS THE EXACT TROUGH TIMING BECOMES MORE                
CERTAIN. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE DYNAMICS AND WARM ADVECTION SHOWN            
WITH THE TROUGH (12 HR 500MB HEIGHT CHANGE OF 100-130 M AND 850MB               
WINDS OF 40 KT)...THINK IT IS REASONABLE TO CONTINUE WITH LIKELY                
POPS. SOME SUN IS POSSIBLE ON TUE AHEAD OF THE PCPN...BUT IT IS                 
UNCERTAIN HOW LONG GIVEN THE TIMING DIFFERENCES. THE SLOWER NAM                 
SOLUTION WOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH NEAR 70 WHEREAS THE FASTER GFS              
MAY KEEPS HIGHS MORE IN THE MID 60S. PLAN ON GOING IN-BETWEEN THE               
TWO FOR NOW.                                                                    
WED AND THU...QUIET WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE                  
EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD...DUE TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY                 
BACKING SW BRINGING MILD DOWNSLOPED PACIFIC AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES            
REGION. GFS SOUNDINGS AND ECMWF RH PROGS DEPICT VERY LITTLE IN THE              
WAY OF CLOUDS DURING THIS PERIOD TOO...EXCEPT ACROSS WESTERN LAKE               
SUPERIOR WED NIGHT AND THU WHERE SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS AND                
CREATES A MID CLOUD DECK. GIVEN PLENTY OF SUN BOTH DAYS...DRY                   
AIR...AND 850MB TEMPS RISING FROM 8C AT 18Z WED TO 12C AT 18Z THU               
SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S BOTH DAYS. S TO SW                   
SURFACE WINDS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC               
AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS MANITOBA TO HUDSON BAY WILL YIELD AN             
EXTRA COUPLE DEGREES FOR DOWNSLOPE AREAS. BY LATE THU...PRESSURES               
FALLING OVER THE PLAINS SHOULD CAUSE WINDS TO BACK MORE                         
SOUTHEASTERLY...RESULTING IN SOME COOLING ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE               
KEWEENAW PENINSULA.                                                             
THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN...MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE              
MECHANISM THAT CAUSES THE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE AREA ON WED TO BACK SW            
ON THU...A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING DOWN INTO THE WESTERN U.S.. THERE ARE            
TWO QUESTIONS WITH THE TROUGH...HOW DEEP IT WILL BE AND HOW QUICK IT            
PUSHES EASTWARD. ECMWF AND GFS RUNS SEEM TO BE CONSISTENT WITHIN                
THEMSELVES WITH TWO SCENARIOS. THE ECMWF ALLOWS THE TROUGH TO DIG               
DOWN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA BY 00Z SUN...PUMPING UP A LARGE                 
RIDGE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.. IF THIS OCCURS...THE ECMWF            
DEPICTS A VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY ON SAT WITH BREEZY SOUTH                      
WINDS...850MB TEMPS OF 16-18C AND 850MB DEWPOINTS AROUND 14C. THIS              
IS THEN FOLLOWED BY A POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN EVENT ON SUN. ON THE OTHER            
SIDE OF THE COIN...THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND SHOWS THE BASE OF            
THE UPPER TROUGH (AN UPPER LOW) INTO THE OMAHA AREA BY 00Z SUN WHICH            
LIFTS UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA ON SUN. IF THIS SOLUTION                     
OCCURS...THE GFS WRAPS UP THE UPPER LOW SO MUCH AND HAS 850MB TEMPS             
DOWN TO -4C AT IWD BY 12Z ALONG WITH PLENTY OF QPF...SUGGESTING A               
POSSIBLE SNOWSTORM. BASED ON THE CANADIAN AND UKMET WHICH LOOK MORE             
LIKE THE ECMWF...THE GFS SOLUTION IS VERY MUCH AN OUTLIER...THOUGH              
SNOWSTORMS FOR THE FIRST WEEKEND OF OCTOBER ARE DEFINITELY NOT                  
UNCOMMON HERE. IN ANY EVENT...EITHER SOLUTION SUGGESTS AN                       
INTERESTING WEEKEND IS IN STORE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR RECORD HIGHS               
ALONG WITH HEAVY PCPN.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
-SHRA/-DZ HAVE EDGED E OF KCMX IN THE LAST FEW HRS AND VIS AND CIGS             
HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR AND MVFR RESPECTIVELY. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME            
VERY LIMITED DRYING AT KCMX...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO BE THE RULE TODAY.            
MEANWHILE...-SHRA/-DZ WILL PROBABLY LINGER THRU THE ENTIRE MORNING              
AT KSAW AS PCPN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE OVER SRN WI/NRN              
IL ONLY DRIFTS EWD. ALTHOUGH LIGHT...DEVELOPING NRLY UPSLOPING WINDS            
WILL RESULT IN LOW CIGS THRU THE DAY AT KSAW WITH IFR CIGS PROBABLY             
ONLY RISING TO THE LOW END OF MVFR IN THE AFTN. WITHOUT ANY                     
SIGNIFICANT ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA TODAY AND WITH                 
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT/CALM THIS EVENING...VIS AND CIGS SHOULD CRASH              
AT KCMX/KSAW TO VLIFR MID TO LATE EVENING.                                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FCST ISSUANCE)...                           
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THRU THE DAY TODAY AS LOW PRES OVER NE IA MOVES             
NE AND WEAKENS...DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. AS THE WINDS DIMINISH...             
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. NEXT               
ACTIVE LOW PRES TROUGH WILL RACE E AND CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUE                  
NIGHT. SRLY WINDS WILL AGAIN RAMP UP IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH...AND            
IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS COULD OCCUR            
OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE LATE TUE AFTN/EVENING. WINDS FOR THE                
REMAINDER OF THE FCST (WED THRU FRI) SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 10              
TO 20KT RANGE WITH AN OCCASIONAL PERIOD OF 15 TO 25KT.                          
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...AJ                                                        
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...ROLFSON                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
412 AM EDT MON OCT 1 2007                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
07Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED AN UPPER              
LEVEL TROUGH FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO INTO IOWA...WITH A 573 DAM LOW               
NEAR CEDAR RAPIDS IOWA. RIDGES ARE PRESENT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE                
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND WESTERN PLAINS. FARTHER WEST...A               
MORE IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CAN BE SEEN ALONG THE PACIFIC NW             
COASTLINE. ISENTROPIC LIFT DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER LOW...IN ADDITION            
TO UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 110 KT              
JET NEAR THUNDER BAY ONTARIO...IS SUPPORTING SHOWERS FROM EASTERN               
WI/LAKE MI UP INTO THE CENTRAL U.P.. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS OVER THE             
AREA AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE             
WARM...CLOSER TO AVERAGE HIGHS. TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...                      
OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN            
MN FLOWING IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT CROSSING WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.              
CMX AND IWD NOW HAVE LIFR CEILINGS WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES. 00Z INL              
SOUNDING SHOWED THIS WITH A SATURATED LAYER NEAR 875MB WHICH                    
REPRESENTS THE COLD FRONTAL INVERSION. CLOUDS CLEAR OUT ACROSS                  
WESTERN MN AND THE DAKOTAS WHERE A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE               
EXISTS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S. FARTHER WEST...LEE TROUGHING IS               
ALREADY DEVELOPING ALONG THE ROCKIES...WITH A 1005MB LOW CENTERED               
NEAR EDMONTON ALBERTA DOWNSTREAM OF THE PACIFIC NW TROUGH.                      
NOTE: WE DID NOT BREAK THE ALL-TIME SEPTEMBER PCPN RECORD AT THE                
OFFICE. AT MIDNIGHT EST...THE TOTAL SEPTEMBER RAINFALL WAS 7.48                 
INCHES...ABOUT 0.12 OF AN INCH SHORT OF THE 7.60 INCH RECORD. HAD               
THE CURRENT SHOWERS BEEN A FEW HOURS EARLIER...WE PROBABLY WOULD                
HAVE BROKE IT.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AND PCPN FOR                 
TUE/TUE NIGHT.                                                                  
TODAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC NW COASTLINE IS PROGGED            
TO MOVE INTO WESTERN MONTANA BY 00Z...FORCING RIDGING TO BUILD UP               
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE DULUTH AREA BY 00Z WITH             
500MB HEIGHTS OF 580 DAM. THIS RIDGING WILL ALSO FORCE THE UPPER LOW            
OVER IOWA TO CONTINUE MOVING...THOUGH IT APPEARS MORE EAST THAN                 
NORTHEAST AS EXPECTED YESTERDAY. BY 00Z...MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE               
THE LOW NEAR DETROIT. ALTHOUGH THE TRACK IS FARTHER SOUTH...VERY                
LITTLE CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE PCPN FORECAST. SHOWERS PRESENT OVER            
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AND FALL              
APART AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND FILLS...IN ADDITION TO THE JET            
STREAK OVER THUNDER BAY MOVING NE AWAY FROM THE AREA. LOW CLOUDS...             
LIKELY WITH CLOUD TOPS ONLY NEAR 3000 FT DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AND                  
DRYING OCCURRING ALOFT...SHOULD FILL IN IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER                
LOW. RECENT RAINFALL WILL HELP MATTERS TOO IN DEVELOPING THE LOW                
CLOUDS/FOG. THE LATE TIME OF YEAR WILL ALSO HELP IN PREVENTING THE              
LOW CLOUD DECK FROM MIXING OUT. IN ADDITION...WITH THE SURFACE COLD             
FRONT CROSSING THE CWA...NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND IT SHOULD RESULT IN              
SOME FOG AND/OR UPSLOPE DRIZZLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OUT OF THE              
LOW CLOUD DECK. APPEARS THE DRIZZLE WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE              
NORTH CENTRAL U.P. WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS DEEPEST...THOUGH SOME            
DRIZZLE/FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING IN THE WESTERN U.P. HIGHER                 
TERRAIN AS SURFACE OBS FROM IWD AND CMX INDICATE. GIVEN THE                     
CLOUDS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO HAVE A HARD TIME CLIMBING MUCH                  
TODAY. GENERALLY FOLLOWED MET/MAV GUIDANCE VALUES.                              
TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN MONTANA WILL CONTINUE ITS             
EASTWARD MARCH...REACHING THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BY 12Z TUE. THE COLD              
FRONT...CURRENTLY THE LEE TROUGH...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH             
SHOULD REACH GRAND FORKS AROUND THE SAME TIME. CLOSER TO HOME...THE             
UPPER TROUGH WILL CAUSE THE UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD UP INTO UPPER                  
MICHIGAN...RESULTING IN A DRY NIGHT WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.                      
HOWEVER...THIS SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ALOFT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE              
TRAPPED AT THE SURFACE PRESENTS A CONCERN FOR FOG...ESPECIALLY WITH             
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT                 
HOURS AS THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS CROSSES. GUIDANCE ALONG              
WITH SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY FAVORABLE SCENARIO FOR FOG...AND THUS                
HAVE INCREASED THE COVERAGE FURTHER TO GO WITH WIDESPREAD FOG AND               
AREAS OF DENSE FOG. NEXT SHIFT MAY NEED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG                    
ADVISORY. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING TOWARDS SUNRISE OUT IN THE WESTERN             
U.P. MAY START TO BREAK UP THE FOG...PARTICULARLY IN DOWNSLOPE                  
AREAS. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARM WITH STRATUS AND FOG                 
AROUND.                                                                         
TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...THE MAIN FOCUS WILL REMAIN ON THE IMPACTS OF               
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT MOVES EASTWARD TO THE MN/WI LINE AT 00Z            
WED AND TO EASTERN ONTARIO BY 12Z WED. THE RAPID PROGRESSION OF THIS            
FEATURE ONLY ALLOWS FOR A NARROW AXIS OF MOISTURE TO ADVECT UP AHEAD            
OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...AS INDICATED BY 850MB THETA-E                    
ADVECTION. THUS IT DOES NOT APPEAR ANY MORE THAT SHOWERS OR STORMS              
COULD FORM DOWNSTREAM OVER NORTHERN WI AND ALONG THE WI BORDER.                 
TIMING OF THE FEATURE HAS SPED UP WITH THE 00Z GFS/12Z                          
ECMWF...SHOWING THE COLD FRONT AND AXIS OF GREATEST 850MB THETA-E               
ADVECTION AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN NW WI AND IWD AREA AT                     
18Z...OVER THE CENTRAL U.P. AT 00Z...AND EAST OF SAULT STE MARIE BY             
06Z. THE UKMET AND NAM ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE TROUGH...THUS WILL             
NOT CLEAR PCPN OUT AS FAST AS THE GFS/ECMWF. CHANGES MAY BE REQUIRED            
OVER THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS AS THE EXACT TROUGH TIMING BECOMES MORE                
CERTAIN. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE DYNAMICS AND WARM ADVECTION SHOWN            
WITH THE TROUGH (12 HR 500MB HEIGHT CHANGE OF 100-130 M AND 850MB               
WINDS OF 40 KT)...THINK IT IS REASONABLE TO CONTINUE WITH LIKELY                
POPS. SOME SUN IS POSSIBLE ON TUE AHEAD OF THE PCPN...BUT IT IS                 
UNCERTAIN HOW LONG GIVEN THE TIMING DIFFERENCES. THE SLOWER NAM                 
SOLUTION WOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH NEAR 70 WHEREAS THE FASTER GFS              
MAY KEEPS HIGHS MORE IN THE MID 60S. PLAN ON GOING IN-BETWEEN THE               
TWO FOR NOW.                                                                    
WED AND THU...QUIET WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE                  
EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD...DUE TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY                 
BACKING SW BRINGING MILD DOWNSLOPED PACIFIC AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES            
REGION. GFS SOUNDINGS AND ECMWF RH PROGS DEPICT VERY LITTLE IN THE              
WAY OF CLOUDS DURING THIS PERIOD TOO...EXCEPT ACROSS WESTERN LAKE               
SUPERIOR WED NIGHT AND THU WHERE SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS AND                
CREATES A MID CLOUD DECK. GIVEN PLENTY OF SUN BOTH DAYS...DRY                   
AIR...AND 850MB TEMPS RISING FROM 8C AT 18Z WED TO 12C AT 18Z THU               
SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S BOTH DAYS. S TO SW                   
SURFACE WINDS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC               
AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS MANITOBA TO HUDSON BAY WILL YIELD AN             
EXTRA COUPLE DEGREES FOR DOWNSLOPE AREAS. BY LATE THU...PRESSURES               
FALLING OVER THE PLAINS SHOULD CAUSE WINDS TO BACK MORE                         
SOUTHEASTERLY...RESULTING IN SOME COOLING ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE               
KEWEENAW PENINSULA.                                                             
THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN...MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE              
MECHANISM THAT CAUSES THE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE AREA ON WED TO BACK SW            
ON THU...A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING DOWN INTO THE WESTERN U.S.. THERE ARE            
TWO QUESTIONS WITH THE TROUGH...HOW DEEP IT WILL BE AND HOW QUICK IT            
PUSHES EASTWARD. ECMWF AND GFS RUNS SEEM TO BE CONSISTENT WITHIN                
THEMSELVES WITH TWO SCENARIOS. THE ECMWF ALLOWS THE TROUGH TO DIG               
DOWN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA BY 00Z SUN...PUMPING UP A LARGE                 
RIDGE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.. IF THIS OCCURS...THE ECMWF            
DEPICTS A VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY ON SAT WITH BREEZY SOUTH                      
WINDS...850MB TEMPS OF 16-18C AND 850MB DEWPOINTS AROUND 14C. THIS              
IS THEN FOLLOWED BY A POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN EVENT ON SUN. ON THE OTHER            
SIDE OF THE COIN...THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND SHOWS THE BASE OF            
THE UPPER TROUGH (AN UPPER LOW) INTO THE OMAHA AREA BY 00Z SUN WHICH            
LIFTS UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA ON SUN. IF THIS SOLUTION                     
OCCURS...THE GFS WRAPS UP THE UPPER LOW SO MUCH AND HAS 850MB TEMPS             
DOWN TO -4C AT IWD BY 12Z ALONG WITH PLENTY OF QPF...SUGGESTING A               
POSSIBLE SNOWSTORM. BASED ON THE CANADIAN AND UKMET WHICH LOOK MORE             
LIKE THE ECMWF...THE GFS SOLUTION IS VERY MUCH AN OUTLIER...THOUGH              
SNOWSTORMS FOR THE FIRST WEEKEND OF OCTOBER ARE DEFINITELY NOT                  
UNCOMMON HERE. IN ANY EVENT...EITHER SOLUTION SUGGESTS AN                       
INTERESTING WEEKEND IS IN STORE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR RECORD HIGHS               
ALONG WITH HEAVY PCPN.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT AS A               
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER IOWA MOVES INTO NORTHERN IL. STEADIER                  
RAINFALL WILL EVENTUALLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS INTO THE MVFR RANGE AND               
THEN TO IFR CONDITIONS LATE IN THE NIGHT INTO THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH             
THE LOW AND PRECIP SHIELD SLIDES TO THE EAST...CIGS WILL ONLY                   
GRADUALLY IMPROVE MONDAY AS SFC-850 MB MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE FOR            
MOST OF THE DAY. THE LOWEST CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT KSAW WITH NE WINDS             
PROVIDING MORE DIRECT UPSLOPE FLOW. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS/FOG TO                    
REDEVELOP THIS EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE               
AND WEAK ERLY SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPS AT KCMX AND E TO NE FLOW                    
CONTINUES AT KSAW.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FCST ISSUANCE)...                           
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THRU THE DAY TODAY AS LOW PRES OVER NE IA MOVES             
NE AND WEAKENS...DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. AS THE WINDS DIMINISH...             
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. NEXT               
ACTIVE LOW PRES TROUGH WILL RACE E AND CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUE                  
NIGHT. SRLY WINDS WILL AGAIN RAMP UP IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH...AND            
IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS COULD OCCUR            
OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE LATE TUE AFTN/EVENING. WINDS FOR THE                
REMAINDER OF THE FCST (WED THRU FRI) SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 10              
TO 20KT RANGE WITH AN OCCASIONAL PERIOD OF 15 TO 25KT.                          
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...AJ                                                        
AVIATION...JLB                                                                  
MARINE...ROLFSON                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
126 AM EDT MON OCT 1 2007                                                       
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION                                                 
.UPDATE (ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT)...                                              
RADAR SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS                
FROM SW TO N CNTRL WI AND INTO CNTRL UPPER MI. THE PCPN CLOSER TO               
UPPER MI WAS SUPPORTED BY STRONG 600-500 FGEN AHEAD OF THE CLOSED               
500 MB LOW OVER IA AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A             
110-120 KT 250 MB JET N OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS AND            
THE 00Z NAM AND RUC SUGGEST THAT THE PCPN OVER NRN WI WILL CONTINUE             
TO SPREAD MORE NNE IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS COMPARED             
TO THE EARLIER BATCH OF PCPN INTO CNTRL UPPER MI THAT WAS MOVING                
MORE TO THE ENE. SO...HIGHEST POPS/COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE OVER CNTRL            
AND SE UPPER MI WITH ONLY SCT/CHANCE POPS OVER THE WEST. OVERALL                
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVE...PER UPSTREAM                
REPORTS OVER WI...WITH GENERALLY 0.25-0.50 INCH AMOUNTS AND ONLY LCL            
AMOUNTS AOA 1.00 INCH.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/NAM SHOWING A CLOSED LOW                            
OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA MOVING EAST INTO A RIDGE OVER WESTERN QUEBEC.             
A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. OTHER WEAK                 
SHORTWAVES ARE OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...OVER SOUTHEAST                         
MANITOBA...OVER AND CENTRAL ONTARIO. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A                 
LARGE OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH ACCOMPANYING RIDGE BLANKETING THE EAST              
COAST AND THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM A              
LOW OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST MINNESOTA TO             
A LOW OVER KOMA AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL 100+ KNOT JET MAX IS OVER THE              
NORTHWEST SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER OVER                     
NORTHWEST MISSOURI. THESE ARE DRAWING DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF               
INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN END OF THE               
FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER WESTERN             
PART OF THE CWA AND OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO IN THE AREA OF HIGHEST                 
MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE                
FIRING ALONG AN 850MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS AND BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL            
DIVERGENCE ZONE OVER THE WESTERN U.P. AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN.                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MON)...                                                
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST IS THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS              
AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.                                           
UPPER RIDGING WILL REBUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE EAST PACIFIC NW             
TROUGH MOVES INTO WASHINGTON AND OREGON STATE. THIS REBUILDING OF               
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FORCE THE UPPER LOW NEAR OMAHA TO LIFT                     
NORTHEAST AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE TO ITS EAST. BY SUNRISE                     
MONDAY...THE LOW SHOULD BE LOCATED NEAR GREEN BAY. DEEP MOISTURE                
FEEDING INTO THE FORECAST ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND             
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SUPPORTS KEEPING CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE WEST                
HALF OF THE CWA. FOR THE EASTERN CWA...HAVE ONLY WENT WITH                      
LIKELY VALUES AS HEIGHT FALLS ARE LATEST TO HIT THERE. HIGH                     
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...AROUND 1.5 INCHES COULD SUPPORT SOME                
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. GIVEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND HIGH                    
DEWPOINTS SUGGESTS A WARM NIGHT...PROBABLY NOT TOO FAR FROM AVERAGE             
HIGH TEMPERATURES.                                                              
THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN ON             
MONDAY AS THE WESTERN TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. THIS WILL              
CAUSE THE UPPER LOW TO SHIFT TO LAKE HURON. DNVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE            
RIDGE AXIS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWERS TO END BY 18Z OVER THE WEST HALF OF             
THE CWA AND OVER MUCH OF THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA BY 00Z. AS DRY AIR            
MOVES WILL LOWER POPS OVER THE FAR WESTERN U.P. IN THE MORNING AND              
WILL MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF LIKELY POPS OVER THE EASTERN CWA WITH                 
CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. ALTHOUGH THE SHOWERS END...DRYING ALOFT                  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE APPEARS TO SET UP A SUBSIDENCE                  
INVERSION. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE               
RAIN TONIGHT SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF A LOW STRATUS DECK GETTING             
STUCK OVER MUCH OF THE U.P.. WINDS TURNING NORTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF            
A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW COULD ALSO RESULT IN                
SOME MIST AND OR DRIZZLE OVER UPSLOPE AREAS. GIVEN ALL THE CLOUD                
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH.                                        
.LONG TERM (MON NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUN)...                                      
AMPLIFIED UPR LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY MID WEEK THEN THE             
AMPLITUDE INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY AGAIN BY LATE WEEK. IN GENERAL THE            
UPR LEVEL FLOW INTO UPR LAKES IS FM WEST/SOUTHWEST...SO ABOVE NORMAL            
TEMPS CONTINUE UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND. SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPING IN              
WAKE OF MON SYSTEM QUICKLY GIVES WAY TO THE KICKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH             
CURRENTLY DIVING TOWARD CA COAST. THIS TROUGH EMERGES ACROSS THE                
ROCKIES ON MON AND PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS MON NIGHT. STRONG SW FLOW             
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL BE ENHANCED AS UPR JET OVR NORTHERN ROCKIES            
COMBINES WITH PIECE OF SUBTROPICAL JET ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF DESERT             
SW. THE STRONG JETS JUST AHEAD OF TROUGH SHOULD ALSO SERVE TO KEEP              
TROUGH POSITIVELY TILTED AND MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION. AS              
IS THE CASE WITH THE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA ATTM...THIS SYSTEM               
WILL ALSO BRING A STRONG SURGE OF ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE INTO THE                
UPR LAKES THANKS TO INCREASING H85 WINDS. AXIS OF H85 DEWPOINTS TO              
+12C NOSES INTO SW CWA TUE MORNING THEN QUICKLY OVERTAKES REST OF               
CWA BY TUE EVENING. COMBINATION OF HEIGHT FALLS AND PERIOD OF UPPER             
LEVEL DIVERGENCE SHOULD LEAD TO PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN SPREADING               
FM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CWA.                                                     
K INDEX VALUES ABOVE 30 AND PWATS ABOVE 1.5 INCHES ALSO LEAD TO                 
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS.             
CORFIDI VECTORS INDICATE THAT MOST ACTIVITY WILL KEEP TRUCKING TO               
THE NE SO UNLESS CELLS BEGIN TO TRAIN DO NOT FORSEE A FLOODING                  
THREAT. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND QUICKER WITH EXIT OF THE TROUGH AND            
ANY PCPN. TRIMMED BACK POPS OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT.                                
AFTER THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS THE REGION ON WED...A BROAD TROUGH             
DEVELOPS OFFSHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS LEADS TO STRONG 250MB             
JET ENERGY STREAMING ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE              
NORTH CENTRAL CONUS AND TO EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL KEEP THE                   
PRIMARY SFC FRONT ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER AND SHOULD KEEP PCPN             
OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL FRI. TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE CONUS BY SAT AND              
THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY PUSH THE FRONT TOWARD UPR LAKES. INCREASING               
MOISTURE AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS LEAD TO INCREASED CHANCES OF                
PCPN FRI INTO SAT. MAIN FRONT SLIDES THROUGH REGION LATE SAT SO PCPN            
CHANCES SHOULD WANE INTO SUN. MUCH COOLER TEMPS SUN/MON IN WAKE OF              
THE FRONT.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT                    
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER IOWA MOVES INTO NORTHERN IL.                      
STEADIER RAINFALL WILL EVENTUALLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS INTO THE MVFR                
RANGE AND THEN TO IFR CONDITIONS LATE IN THE NIGHT INTO THE MORNING.            
ALTHOUGH THE LOW AND PRECIP SHIELD SLIDES TO THE EAST...CIGS WILL               
ONLY GRADUALLY IMPROVE MONDAY AS SFC-850 MB MOISTURE REMAINS IN                 
PLACE FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THE LOWEST CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT KSAW WITH            
NE WINDS PROVIDING MORE DIRECT UPSLOPE FLOW. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS/FOG              
TO REDEVELOP THIS EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE            
AND WEAK ERLY SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPS AT KCMX AND E TO NE FLOW                    
CONTINUES AT KSAW.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FCST ISSUANCE)...                           
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. WINDS BEHIND              
THE FRONT WILL VEER WEST AND NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO            
25 KTS OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH IS               
FAVORED FOR STRONGER WINDS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIMES. THE AREA                  
AROUND GRAND MARAIS AT THE EAST END OF PICTURED ROCKS NATIONAL                  
LAKESHORE IS ONE LOCATION THAT WILL SEE THE HIGHEST WINDS. WINDS                
WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AS WEAKENING LOW PRES            
MOVES TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE WILL BE SOME FOG                   
DEVELOPMENT OVER MAIN THE EAST END TONIGHT AS THE WINDS DIMINISH.               
NEXT ACTIVE LOW PRES TROUGH WILL RACE EAST AND CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR              
TUESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL AGAIN WRAP UP IN ADVANCE OF THIS            
TROUGH.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...JLB                                                                    
SHORT TERM...DLG                                                                
LONG TERM...JLA                                                                 
MARINE...DLG                                                                    
AVIATION...JLB                                                                  
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1030 PM EDT SUN SEP 30 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
RADAR SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS                
FROM SW TO N CNTRL WI AND INTO CNTRL UPPER MI. THE PCPN CLOSER TO               
UPPER MI WAS SUPPORTED BY STRONG 600-500 FGEN AHEAD OF THE CLOSED               
500 MB LOW OVER IA AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A             
110-120 KT 250 MB JET N OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS AND            
THE 00Z NAM AND RUC SUGGEST THAT THE PCPN OVER NRN WI WILL CONTINUE             
TO SPREAD MORE NNE IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS COMPARED             
TO THE EARLIER BATCH OF PCPN INTO CNTRL UPPER MI THAT WAS MOVING                
MORE TO THE ENE. SO...HIGHEST POPS/COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE OVER CNTRL            
AND SE UPPER MI WITH ONLY SCT/CHANCE POPS OVER THE WEST. OVERALL                
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVE...PER UPSTREAM                
REPORTS OVER WI...WITH GENERALLY 0.25-0.50 INCH AMOUNTS AND ONLY LCL            
AMOUNTS AOA 1.00 INCH.                                                          
 GRIDS AND                                                                      
ZFP WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.                                                  
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/NAM SHOWING A CLOSED LOW                            
OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA MOVING EAST INTO A RIDGE OVER WESTERN QUEBEC.             
A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. OTHER WEAK                 
SHORTWAVES ARE OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...OVER SOUTHEAST                         
MANITOBA...OVER AND CENTRAL ONTARIO. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A                 
LARGE OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH ACCOMPANYING RIDGE BLANKETING THE EAST              
COAST AND THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM A              
LOW OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST MINNESOTA TO             
A LOW OVER KOMA AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL 100+ KNOT JET MAX IS OVER THE              
NORTHWEST SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER OVER                     
NORTHWEST MISSOURI. THESE ARE DRAWING DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF               
INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN END OF THE               
FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER WESTERN             
PART OF THE CWA AND OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO IN THE AREA OF HIGHEST                 
MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE                
FIRING ALONG AN 850MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS AND BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL            
DIVERGENCE ZONE OVER THE WESTERN U.P. AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN.                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MON)...                                                
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST IS THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS              
AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.                                           
UPPER RIDGING WILL REBUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE EAST PACIFIC NW             
TROUGH MOVES INTO WASHINGTON AND OREGON STATE. THIS REBUILDING OF               
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FORCE THE UPPER LOW NEAR OMAHA TO LIFT                     
NORTHEAST AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE TO ITS EAST. BY SUNRISE                     
MONDAY...THE LOW SHOULD BE LOCATED NEAR GREEN BAY. DEEP MOISTURE                
FEEDING INTO THE FORECAST ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND             
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SUPPORTS KEEPING CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE WEST                
HALF OF THE CWA. FOR THE EASTERN CWA...HAVE ONLY WENT WITH                      
LIKELY VALUES AS HEIGHT FALLS ARE LATEST TO HIT THERE. HIGH                     
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...AROUND 1.5 INCHES COULD SUPPORT SOME                
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. GIVEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND HIGH                    
DEWPOINTS SUGGESTS A WARM NIGHT...PROBABLY NOT TOO FAR FROM AVERAGE             
HIGH TEMPERATURES.                                                              
THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN ON             
MONDAY AS THE WESTERN TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. THIS WILL              
CAUSE THE UPPER LOW TO SHIFT TO LAKE HURON. DNVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE            
RIDGE AXIS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWERS TO END BY 18Z OVER THE WEST HALF OF             
THE CWA AND OVER MUCH OF THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA BY 00Z. AS DRY AIR            
MOVES WILL LOWER POPS OVER THE FAR WESTERN U.P. IN THE MORNING AND              
WILL MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF LIKELY POPS OVER THE EASTERN CWA WITH                 
CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. ALTHOUGH THE SHOWERS END...DRYING ALOFT                  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE APPEARS TO SET UP A SUBSIDENCE                  
INVERSION. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE               
RAIN TONIGHT SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF A LOW STRATUS DECK GETTING             
STUCK OVER MUCH OF THE U.P.. WINDS TURNING NORTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF            
A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW COULD ALSO RESULT IN                
SOME MIST AND OR DRIZZLE OVER UPSLOPE AREAS. GIVEN ALL THE CLOUD                
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH.                                        
.LONG TERM (MON NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUN)...                                      
AMPLIFIED UPR LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY MID WEEK THEN THE             
AMPLITUDE INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY AGAIN BY LATE WEEK. IN GENERAL THE            
UPR LEVEL FLOW INTO UPR LAKES IS FM WEST/SOUTHWEST...SO ABOVE NORMAL            
TEMPS CONTINUE UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND. SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPING IN              
WAKE OF MON SYSTEM QUICKLY GIVES WAY TO THE KICKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH             
CURRENTLY DIVING TOWARD CA COAST. THIS TROUGH EMERGES ACROSS THE                
ROCKIES ON MON AND PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS MON NIGHT. STRONG SW FLOW             
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL BE ENHANCED AS UPR JET OVR NORTHERN ROCKIES            
COMBINES WITH PIECE OF SUBTROPICAL JET ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF DESERT             
SW. THE STRONG JETS JUST AHEAD OF TROUGH SHOULD ALSO SERVE TO KEEP              
TROUGH POSITIVELY TILTED AND MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION. AS              
IS THE CASE WITH THE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA ATTM...THIS SYSTEM               
WILL ALSO BRING A STRONG SURGE OF ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE INTO THE                
UPR LAKES THANKS TO INCREASING H85 WINDS. AXIS OF H85 DEWPOINTS TO              
+12C NOSES INTO SW CWA TUE MORNING THEN QUICKLY OVERTAKES REST OF               
CWA BY TUE EVENING. COMBINATION OF HEIGHT FALLS AND PERIOD OF UPPER             
LEVEL DIVERGENCE SHOULD LEAD TO PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN SPREADING               
FM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CWA.                                                     
K INDEX VALUES ABOVE 30 AND PWATS ABOVE 1.5 INCHES ALSO LEAD TO                 
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS.             
CORFIDI VECTORS INDICATE THAT MOST ACTIVITY WILL KEEP TRUCKING TO               
THE NE SO UNLESS CELLS BEGIN TO TRAIN DO NOT FORSEE A FLOODING                  
THREAT. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND QUICKER WITH EXIT OF THE TROUGH AND            
ANY PCPN. TRIMMED BACK POPS OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT.                                
AFTER THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS THE REGION ON WED...A BROAD TROUGH             
DEVELOPS OFFSHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS LEADS TO STRONG 250MB             
JET ENERGY STREAMING ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE              
NORTH CENTRAL CONUS AND TO EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL KEEP THE                   
PRIMARY SFC FRONT ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER AND SHOULD KEEP PCPN             
OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL FRI. TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE CONUS BY SAT AND              
THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY PUSH THE FRONT TOWARD UPR LAKES. INCREASING               
MOISTURE AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS LEAD TO INCREASED CHANCES OF                
PCPN FRI INTO SAT. MAIN FRONT SLIDES THROUGH REGION LATE SAT SO PCPN            
CHANCES SHOULD WANE INTO SUN. MUCH COOLER TEMPS SUN/MON IN WAKE OF              
THE FRONT.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN THIS                
EVENING CONTINUING OVERNIGHT OVER CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN AS A LOW               
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN IOWA MOVES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.                
STEADIER RAINFALL WILL EVENTUALLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS INTO THE MVFR                
RANGE THIS EVENING AND TO IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO MON                  
MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE RAIN WILL END CIGS WILL ONLY GRADUALLY IMPROVE            
MONDAY AS SFC-850 MB MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE DAY.             
THE LOWEST CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT KSAW WITH NE WINDS PROVIDING MORE               
DIRECT UPSLOPE FLOW.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FCST ISSUANCE)...                           
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. WINDS BEHIND              
THE FRONT WILL VEER WEST AND NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO            
25 KTS OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH IS               
FAVORED FOR STRONGER WINDS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIMES. THE AREA                  
AROUND GRAND MARAIS AT THE EAST END OF PICTURED ROCKS NATIONAL                  
LAKESHORE IS ONE LOCATION THAT WILL SEE THE HIGHEST WINDS. WINDS                
WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AS WEAKENING LOW PRES            
MOVES TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE WILL BE SOME FOG                   
DEVELOPMENT OVER MAIN THE EAST END TONIGHT AS THE WINDS DIMINISH.               
NEXT ACTIVE LOW PRES TROUGH WILL RACE EAST AND CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR              
TUESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL AGAIN WRAP UP IN ADVANCE OF THIS            
TROUGH.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...DLG                                                                
LONG TERM...JLA                                                                 
AVIATION/MARINE...DLG                                                           
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
745 PM EDT SUN SEP 30 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/NAM SHOWING A CLOSED LOW                            
OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA MOVING EAST INTO A RIDGE OVER WESTERN QUEBEC.             
A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. OTHER WEAK                 
SHORTWAVES ARE OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...OVER SOUTHEAST                         
MANITOBA...OVER AND CENTRAL ONTARIO. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A                 
LARGE OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH ACCOMPANYING RIDGE BLANKETING THE EAST              
COAST AND THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM A              
LOW OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST MINNESOTA TO             
A LOW OVER KOMA AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL 100+ KNOT JET MAX IS OVER THE              
NORTHWEST SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER OVER                     
NORTHWEST MISSOURI. THESE ARE DRAWING DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF               
INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN END OF THE               
FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER WESTERN             
PART OF THE CWA AND OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO IN THE AREA OF HIGHEST                 
MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE                
FIRING ALONG AN 850MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS AND BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL            
DIVERGENCE ZONE OVER THE WESTERN U.P. AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN.                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MON)...                                                
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST IS THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS              
AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.                                           
UPPER RIDGING WILL REBUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE EAST PACIFIC NW             
TROUGH MOVES INTO WASHINGTON AND OREGON STATE. THIS REBUILDING OF               
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FORCE THE UPPER LOW NEAR OMAHA TO LIFT                     
NORTHEAST AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE TO ITS EAST. BY SUNRISE                     
MONDAY...THE LOW SHOULD BE LOCATED NEAR GREEN BAY. DEEP MOISTURE                
FEEDING INTO THE FORECAST ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND             
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SUPPORTS KEEPING CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE WEST                
HALF OF THE CWA. FOR THE EASTERN CWA...HAVE ONLY WENT WITH                      
LIKELY VALUES AS HEIGHT FALLS ARE LATEST TO HIT THERE. HIGH                     
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...AROUND 1.5 INCHES COULD SUPPORT SOME                
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. GIVEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND HIGH                    
DEWPOINTS SUGGESTS A WARM NIGHT...PROBABLY NOT TOO FAR FROM AVERAGE             
HIGH TEMPERATURES.                                                              
THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN ON             
MONDAY AS THE WESTERN TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. THIS WILL              
CAUSE THE UPPER LOW TO SHIFT TO LAKE HURON. DNVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE            
RIDGE AXIS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWERS TO END BY 18Z OVER THE WEST HALF OF             
THE CWA AND OVER MUCH OF THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA BY 00Z. AS DRY AIR            
MOVES WILL LOWER POPS OVER THE FAR WESTERN U.P. IN THE MORNING AND              
WILL MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF LIKELY POPS OVER THE EASTERN CWA WITH                 
CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. ALTHOUGH THE SHOWERS END...DRYING ALOFT                  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE APPEARS TO SET UP A SUBSIDENCE                  
INVERSION. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE               
RAIN TONIGHT SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF A LOW STRATUS DECK GETTING             
STUCK OVER MUCH OF THE U.P.. WINDS TURNING NORTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF            
A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW COULD ALSO RESULT IN                
SOME MIST AND OR DRIZZLE OVER UPSLOPE AREAS. GIVEN ALL THE CLOUD                
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH.                                        
.LONG TERM (MON NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUN)...                                      
AMPLIFIED UPR LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY MID WEEK THEN THE             
AMPLITUDE INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY AGAIN BY LATE WEEK. IN GENERAL THE            
UPR LEVEL FLOW INTO UPR LAKES IS FM WEST/SOUTHWEST...SO ABOVE NORMAL            
TEMPS CONTINUE UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND. SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPING IN              
WAKE OF MON SYSTEM QUICKLY GIVES WAY TO THE KICKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH             
CURRENTLY DIVING TOWARD CA COAST. THIS TROUGH EMERGES ACROSS THE                
ROCKIES ON MON AND PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS MON NIGHT. STRONG SW FLOW             
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL BE ENHANCED AS UPR JET OVR NORTHERN ROCKIES            
COMBINES WITH PIECE OF SUBTROPICAL JET ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF DESERT             
SW. THE STRONG JETS JUST AHEAD OF TROUGH SHOULD ALSO SERVE TO KEEP              
TROUGH POSITIVELY TILTED AND MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION. AS              
IS THE CASE WITH THE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA ATTM...THIS SYSTEM               
WILL ALSO BRING A STRONG SURGE OF ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE INTO THE                
UPR LAKES THANKS TO INCREASING H85 WINDS. AXIS OF H85 DEWPOINTS TO              
+12C NOSES INTO SW CWA TUE MORNING THEN QUICKLY OVERTAKES REST OF               
CWA BY TUE EVENING. COMBINATION OF HEIGHT FALLS AND PERIOD OF UPPER             
LEVEL DIVERGENCE SHOULD LEAD TO PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN SPREADING               
FM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CWA.                                                     
K INDEX VALUES ABOVE 30 AND PWATS ABOVE 1.5 INCHES ALSO LEAD TO                 
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS.             
CORFIDI VECTORS INDICATE THAT MOST ACTIVITY WILL KEEP TRUCKING TO               
THE NE SO UNLESS CELLS BEGIN TO TRAIN DO NOT FORSEE A FLOODING                  
THREAT. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND QUICKER WITH EXIT OF THE TROUGH AND            
ANY PCPN. TRIMMED BACK POPS OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT.                                
AFTER THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS THE REGION ON WED...A BROAD TROUGH             
DEVELOPS OFFSHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS LEADS TO STRONG 250MB             
JET ENERGY STREAMING ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE              
NORTH CENTRAL CONUS AND TO EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL KEEP THE                   
PRIMARY SFC FRONT ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER AND SHOULD KEEP PCPN             
OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL FRI. TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE CONUS BY SAT AND              
THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY PUSH THE FRONT TOWARD UPR LAKES. INCREASING               
MOISTURE AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS LEAD TO INCREASED CHANCES OF                
PCPN FRI INTO SAT. MAIN FRONT SLIDES THROUGH REGION LATE SAT SO PCPN            
CHANCES SHOULD WANE INTO SUN. MUCH COOLER TEMPS SUN/MON IN WAKE OF              
THE FRONT.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN THIS                
EVENING CONTINUING OVERNIGHT OVER CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN AS A LOW               
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN IOWA MOVES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.                
STEADIER RAINFALL WILL EVENTUALLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS INTO THE MVFR                
RANGE THIS EVENING AND TO IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO MON                  
MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE RAIN WILL END CIGS WILL ONLY GRADUALLY IMPROVE            
MONDAY AS SFC-850 MB MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE DAY.             
THE LOWEST CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT KSAW WITH NE WINDS PROVIDING MORE               
DIRECT UPSLOPE FLOW.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FCST ISSUANCE)...                           
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. WINDS BEHIND              
THE FRONT WILL VEER WEST AND NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO            
25 KTS OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH IS               
FAVORED FOR STRONGER WINDS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIMES. THE AREA                  
AROUND GRAND MARAIS AT THE EAST END OF PICTURED ROCKS NATIONAL                  
LAKESHORE IS ONE LOCATION THAT WILL SEE THE HIGHEST WINDS. WINDS                
WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AS WEAKENING LOW PRES            
MOVES TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE WILL BE SOME FOG                   
DEVELOPMENT OVER MAIN THE EAST END TONIGHT AS THE WINDS DIMINISH.               
NEXT ACTIVE LOW PRES TROUGH WILL RACE EAST AND CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR              
TUESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL AGAIN WRAP UP IN ADVANCE OF THIS            
TROUGH.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...DLG                                                                
LONG TERM...JLA                                                                 
AVIATION/MARINE...DLG                                                           
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
133 PM EDT SUN SEP 30 2007                                                      
...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MANY FORECAST CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE IS THE CHANCE OF               
PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON.                                                   
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/NAM SHOWING A DEEP LOW OVER WESTERN                 
KANSAS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE RIDGE OVER WESTERN QUEBEC. A                   
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. OTHER WEAK                   
SHORTWAVES ARE OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND OVER MANITOBA. A PAIR OF             
LARGE HIGH BLANKETS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY               
AND OVER NEW ENGLAND. A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM A LOW OVER                  
NORTHWEST ONTARIO SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHWEST MINNESOTA TO A LOW                
OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. AN UPPER LEVEL 100+ KNOT JET MAX IS OVER               
CENTRAL ONTARIO...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS IS              
DRAWING DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI               
RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN END OF THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS AND                  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER WESTERN PART OF THE CWA AND OVER               
CENTRAL ONTARIO IN THE AREA OF HIGHEST MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL                 
DIVERGENCE.                                                                     
THE KANSAS LOW WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA BY LATE AFTERNOON.               
THE RIDGE OVER WESTERN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL              
PUSH ACROSS THE WESTERN U.P. DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN OVER             
ONTARIO...MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...AND WEST END OF CWA.                
KMQT 88D AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE RAIN IS                  
COMING FROM HIGH BASED CLOUDS. THUS PLAN TO KEEP RAIN IN THE                    
FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST AND MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE             
CENTRAL PART WITH MAINLY AC. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH.                
SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE AS GUSTY                      
CONDITIONS AS INDICATED BY SEVERAL STATIONS ALONG THE LAKE SHORE.               
PLAN TO UPDATE THE FORECAST TO TWEAK THE WORDING.                               
EXTENDED...                                                                     
TONIGHT...UPPER RIDGING WILL REBUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE EAST              
PACIFIC NW TROUGH MOVES INTO WASHINGTON AND OREGON STATE. THIS                  
REBUILDING OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FORCE THE UPPER LOW NEAR OMAHA TO            
LIFT NE AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE TO ITS EAST. BY 12Z MON...THE LOW             
SHOULD BE LOCATED NEAR APPLETON WI. MORE IMPRESSIVE HEIGHT FALLS                
COMPARED TO TODAY...ALONG WITH SOME MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE            
WESTERN U.P...SHOULD SUPPORT AN EXPANSION AND INTENSIFICATION OF                
PCPN OVER THE CWA. WILL RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL OVER THE WEST HALF            
OF THE CWA GIVEN CONSISTENT MODEL AGREEMENT FOR PCPN THERE. FOR THE             
EASTERN CWA...HAVE ONLY WENT WITH LIKELY VALUES AS HEIGHT FALLS ARE             
LATEST TO HIT THERE. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...AROUND 1.5                
INCHES OR 250 PERCENT OF NORMAL...COULD SUPPORT SOME HEAVY RAINFALL             
AMOUNTS. THE NAM INDICATES THIS WITH 3.1 INCHES AT IWD BETWEEN                  
00-12Z. GIVEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND HIGH DEWPOINTS SUGGESTS A               
WARM NIGHT...PROBABLY NOT TOO FAR FROM AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES.               
MON...RIDGE AXIS OVER THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT INTO WESTERN WI BY 00Z              
AS THE WESTERN TROUGH CONTINUES TO PLOW EASTWARD. THIS WILL CAUSE               
THE UPPER LOW TO SHIFT TO NEAR LAKE HURON. DNVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE             
RIDGE AXIS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWERS TO END BY 18Z OVER THE WEST HALF OF             
THE CWA AND OVER MUCH OF THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA BY 00Z. WILL                  
MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF LIKELY POPS OVER THE EASTERN CWA IN THE MORNING            
WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. ALTHOUGH THE SHOWERS END...DRYING ALOFT             
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE APPEARS TO SET UP A SUBSIDENCE                  
INVERSION. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE               
RAIN TONIGHT SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF A LOW STRATUS DECK GETTING             
STUCK OVER MUCH OF THE U.P.. WINDS TURNING NORTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF            
A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW COULD ALSO RESULT IN                
SOME MIST AND OR DRIZZLE OVER UPSLOPE AREAS. GIVEN ALL THE CLOUD                
COVER... TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH.                                       
MON NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE NIGHT              
WHILE THE WESTERN TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS.                     
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE SHOULD EFFECTIVELY END ANY PCPN IN THE               
EVENING...WHICH WOULD BE LOCATED IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE              
CWA. STILL...CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED                
UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. DRYING ABOVE THE INVERSION AND LIGHT            
WINDS SHOULD SUPPORT FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER LAND...AND PERHAPS ON THE             
GREAT LAKES TOO. HAVE INCREASED THE COVERAGE TO AREAS OF FOG. IF ANY            
CLEARING CAN DEVELOP IN THE LOW STRATUS DECK...DENSE FOG DEVELOPING             
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE...HAVE               
STAYED ABOVE THE COLDER MET GUIDANCE WITH READINGS CLOSER TO MAV                
GUIDANCE.                                                                       
TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...THE BREAK IN PCPN OBSERVED MON NIGHT WILL BE               
BRIEF AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS MOVES EAST AT A               
GOOD CLIP. STRONG DPVA FROM HEIGHT FALLS MOVING ACROSS WARM                     
ADVECTION AT THE LOW LEVELS (ANOTHER 50-60 KT JET AT 850MB PROGGED)             
SUGGESTS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM IN THE                 
VICINITY OF THE TROUGHS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. IN                       
ADDITION...STRONG 850MB THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING            
ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN IN THE MORNING COULD SUPPORT SOME                 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (SIMILAR TO TODAY). MODEL RUN-TO-RUN AND              
BETWEEN MODEL CONSISTENCY IS REMARKABLY GREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND            
THUS HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL                        
THUNDERSTORMS. VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM               
WOULD SUGGEST A SEVERE THREAT...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THERE IS VERY                
LITTLE CAPE AVAILABLE. SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK HAS AREA ONLY IN 5 PERCENT             
AT THIS TIME...AND GIVEN THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF                    
CAPE...HAVE DECLINED TO MENTION ANY SEVERE POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO.              
IF MORE SUN CAN OCCUR ON TUE...THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER            
WOULD GO UP. MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THAT ANOTHER                
SURGE OF 1.5-1.75 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE PROGGED WITH               
THE FRONT. CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND             
UPPER TROUGH AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALL TO 0.5 INCHES ACROSS             
THE ENTIRE CWA BY 12Z WED. THIS COOLER AND DRY AIR BUT BREEZY WEST              
TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN READINGS SIMILAR TO THOSE MON               
NIGHT.                                                                          
WED THROUGH SUN...FLOW TURNS ZONAL WED...WITH WESTERLY FLOW HELPING             
TO BRING MILD PACIFIC AIR INTO THE AREA. THEN FOR THU THROUGH                   
SAT...ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH              
THE WESTERN STATES...HEADING OUT INTO THE PLAINS ON SAT. THE RESULT             
IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE DAKOTAS. WARM              
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL            
ABOVE NORMAL. GFS/ECMWF BOTH DEPICT 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO 14-16C.             
BY SAT...WE COULD BE TALKING ABOUT ANOTHER DAY OF HUMID CONDITIONS              
AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES AHEAD OF            
THE APPROACHING TROUGH/COLD FRONT. UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA               
SAT NIGHT WILL BRING IN MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ON SUN...ASSUMING THE            
TROUGH CAN PUSH EAST INTO THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN BUILT OUT AHEAD OF            
IT. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SCENARIO CLOSELY AS THE PATTERN COULD               
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN.                                           
NOTE: WE NEED 0.28 INCHES OF PCPN AT THE OFFICE BY 05Z TONIGHT TO               
BREAK THE ALL TIME WETTEST SEPTEMBER RECORD. PREVIOUS RECORD IS 7.60            
SET IN 1968.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18 TAF ISSUANCE)...                                          
THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA ANS WESTERN LAKE                
SUPERIOR CONTINUES TO CAUSE LOW CEILIGS AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS              
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. IR SATELLITE SHOWING SCATTERED            
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO WEST U.P. THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE FROM            
EASTERN NEBRASKA EAST ACROSS THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LOWER MICHIGAN.              
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO WESTERN GOGEBIC COUNTY ALONG A                
850MB THETA-E RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED SHIFT NORTHEAST ALONG               
THE LAKE SHORE AND SHOULD GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.             
THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST REACHING KSAW BY 00Z. THIS WILL                 
CAUSE LOWER CEILING. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE OVER THE AREA THIS                 
AFTERNOON ADDING TO THE GUSTY CONDITIONS AT KCMX AND KSAW. THE RAIN             
ACROSS THE AREA WILL LEAVE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO DEVELOP SOME            
DRIZZLE AND FOG OVER NIGHT AT BOTH LOCATION UNDER A SURFACE BASED               
INVERSION.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FCST ISSUANCE)...                           
S WINDS...GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE...WILL CONTINUE TODAY              
AHEAD OF A LOW PRES TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. EXPECT FREQUENT GUSTS TO            
30KT OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE WHICH IS FAVORED FOR STRONGER WINDS            
IN SRLY FLOW REGIMES. MAY SEE A FEW 35KT GALE FORCE GUSTS AS WELL.              
THE AREA AROUND GRAND MARAIS AT THE E END OF PICTURED ROCKS NATIONAL            
LAKESHORE IS ONE LOCATION THAT MAY SEE THE HIGHEST WINDS. WINDS WILL            
DIMINISH TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY MON AS WEAKENING LOW PRES MOVES TO              
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT            
AS THE WINDS DIMINISH. NEXT ACTIVE LOW PRES TROUGH WILL RACE E AND              
CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUE NIGHT. SRLY WINDS WILL AGAIN RAMP UP IN                 
ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH...AND IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW            
GALE FORCE GUSTS COULD OCCUR OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE LATE TUE               
AFTN/EVENING.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/FIRST PERIOD...DLG                                                     
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...AJ                                                        
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...ROLFSON                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1125 AM EDT SUN SEP 30 2007                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MANY FORECAST CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE IS THE CHANCE OF               
PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON.                                                   
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/NAM SHOWING A DEEP LOW OVER WESTERN                 
KANSAS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE RIDGE OVER WESTERN QUEBEC. A                   
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. OTHER WEAK                   
SHORTWAVES ARE OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND OVER MANITOBA. A PAIR OF             
LARGE HIGH BLANKETS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY               
AND OVER NEW ENGLAND. A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM A LOW OVER                  
NORTHWEST ONTARIO SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHWEST MINNESOTA TO A LOW                
OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. AN UPPER LEVEL 100+ KNOT JET MAX IS OVER               
CENTRAL ONTARIO...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS IS              
DRAWING DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI               
RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN END OF THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS AND                  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER WESTERN PART OF THE CWA AND OVER               
CENTRAL ONTARIO IN THE AREA OF HIGHEST MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL                 
DIVERGENCE.                                                                     
THE KANSAS LOW WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA BY LATE AFTERNOON.               
THE RIDGE OVER WESTERN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL              
PUSH ACROSS THE WESTERN U.P. DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN OVER             
ONTARIO...MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...AND WEST END OF CWA.                
KMQT 88D AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE RAIN IS                  
COMING FROM HIGH BASED CLOUDS. THUS PLAN TO KEEP RAIN IN THE                    
FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST AND MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE             
CENTRAL PART WITH MAINLY AC. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH.                
SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE AS GUSTY                      
CONDITIONS AS INDICATED BY SEVERAL STATIONS ALONG THE LAKE SHORE.               
PLAN TO UPDATE THE FORECAST TO TWEAK THE WORDING.                               
EXTENDED...                                                                     
TONIGHT...UPPER RIDGING WILL REBUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE EAST              
PACIFIC NW TROUGH MOVES INTO WASHINGTON AND OREGON STATE. THIS                  
REBUILDING OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FORCE THE UPPER LOW NEAR OMAHA TO            
LIFT NE AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE TO ITS EAST. BY 12Z MON...THE LOW             
SHOULD BE LOCATED NEAR APPLETON WI. MORE IMPRESSIVE HEIGHT FALLS                
COMPARED TO TODAY...ALONG WITH SOME MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE            
WESTERN U.P...SHOULD SUPPORT AN EXPANSION AND INTENSIFICATION OF                
PCPN OVER THE CWA. WILL RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL OVER THE WEST HALF            
OF THE CWA GIVEN CONSISTENT MODEL AGREEMENT FOR PCPN THERE. FOR THE             
EASTERN CWA...HAVE ONLY WENT WITH LIKELY VALUES AS HEIGHT FALLS ARE             
LATEST TO HIT THERE. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...AROUND 1.5                
INCHES OR 250 PERCENT OF NORMAL...COULD SUPPORT SOME HEAVY RAINFALL             
AMOUNTS. THE NAM INDICATES THIS WITH 3.1 INCHES AT IWD BETWEEN                  
00-12Z. GIVEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND HIGH DEWPOINTS SUGGESTS A               
WARM NIGHT...PROBABLY NOT TOO FAR FROM AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES.               
MON...RIDGE AXIS OVER THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT INTO WESTERN WI BY 00Z              
AS THE WESTERN TROUGH CONTINUES TO PLOW EASTWARD. THIS WILL CAUSE               
THE UPPER LOW TO SHIFT TO NEAR LAKE HURON. DNVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE             
RIDGE AXIS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWERS TO END BY 18Z OVER THE WEST HALF OF             
THE CWA AND OVER MUCH OF THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA BY 00Z. WILL                  
MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF LIKELY POPS OVER THE EASTERN CWA IN THE MORNING            
WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. ALTHOUGH THE SHOWERS END...DRYING ALOFT             
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE APPEARS TO SET UP A SUBSIDENCE                  
INVERSION. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE               
RAIN TONIGHT SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF A LOW STRATUS DECK GETTING             
STUCK OVER MUCH OF THE U.P.. WINDS TURNING NORTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF            
A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW COULD ALSO RESULT IN                
SOME MIST AND OR DRIZZLE OVER UPSLOPE AREAS. GIVEN ALL THE CLOUD                
COVER... TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH.                                       
MON NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE NIGHT              
WHILE THE WESTERN TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS.                     
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE SHOULD EFFECTIVELY END ANY PCPN IN THE               
EVENING...WHICH WOULD BE LOCATED IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE              
CWA. STILL...CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED                
UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. DRYING ABOVE THE INVERSION AND LIGHT            
WINDS SHOULD SUPPORT FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER LAND...AND PERHAPS ON THE             
GREAT LAKES TOO. HAVE INCREASED THE COVERAGE TO AREAS OF FOG. IF ANY            
CLEARING CAN DEVELOP IN THE LOW STRATUS DECK...DENSE FOG DEVELOPING             
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE...HAVE               
STAYED ABOVE THE COLDER MET GUIDANCE WITH READINGS CLOSER TO MAV                
GUIDANCE.                                                                       
TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...THE BREAK IN PCPN OBSERVED MON NIGHT WILL BE               
BRIEF AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS MOVES EAST AT A               
GOOD CLIP. STRONG DPVA FROM HEIGHT FALLS MOVING ACROSS WARM                     
ADVECTION AT THE LOW LEVELS (ANOTHER 50-60 KT JET AT 850MB PROGGED)             
SUGGESTS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM IN THE                 
VICINITY OF THE TROUGHS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. IN                       
ADDITION...STRONG 850MB THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING            
ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN IN THE MORNING COULD SUPPORT SOME                 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (SIMILAR TO TODAY). MODEL RUN-TO-RUN AND              
BETWEEN MODEL CONSISTENCY IS REMARKABLY GREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND            
THUS HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL                        
THUNDERSTORMS. VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM               
WOULD SUGGEST A SEVERE THREAT...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THERE IS VERY                
LITTLE CAPE AVAILABLE. SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK HAS AREA ONLY IN 5 PERCENT             
AT THIS TIME...AND GIVEN THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF                    
CAPE...HAVE DECLINED TO MENTION ANY SEVERE POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO.              
IF MORE SUN CAN OCCUR ON TUE...THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER            
WOULD GO UP. MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THAT ANOTHER                
SURGE OF 1.5-1.75 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE PROGGED WITH               
THE FRONT. CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND             
UPPER TROUGH AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALL TO 0.5 INCHES ACROSS             
THE ENTIRE CWA BY 12Z WED. THIS COOLER AND DRY AIR BUT BREEZY WEST              
TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN READINGS SIMILAR TO THOSE MON               
NIGHT.                                                                          
WED THROUGH SUN...FLOW TURNS ZONAL WED...WITH WESTERLY FLOW HELPING             
TO BRING MILD PACIFIC AIR INTO THE AREA. THEN FOR THU THROUGH                   
SAT...ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH              
THE WESTERN STATES...HEADING OUT INTO THE PLAINS ON SAT. THE RESULT             
IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE DAKOTAS. WARM              
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL            
ABOVE NORMAL. GFS/ECMWF BOTH DEPICT 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO 14-16C.             
BY SAT...WE COULD BE TALKING ABOUT ANOTHER DAY OF HUMID CONDITIONS              
AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES AHEAD OF            
THE APPROACHING TROUGH/COLD FRONT. UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA               
SAT NIGHT WILL BRING IN MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ON SUN...ASSUMING THE            
TROUGH CAN PUSH EAST INTO THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN BUILT OUT AHEAD OF            
IT. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SCENARIO CLOSELY AS THE PATTERN COULD               
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN.                                           
NOTE: WE NEED 0.28 INCHES OF PCPN AT THE OFFICE BY 05Z TONIGHT TO               
BREAK THE ALL TIME WETTEST SEPTEMBER RECORD. PREVIOUS RECORD IS 7.60            
SET IN 1968.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
LATEST KMQT VAD WIND PROFILE INDICATES 40KT SRLY WINDS AT 500FT AGL.            
SO...LLWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MENTIONED AT KCMX/KSAW UNTIL MIXED                
LAYER BUILDS SUFFICIENTLY TO EASE SHARP SPEED CHANGE BTWN SFC WINDS             
AND STRONGER WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK. IN FACT...SRLY WINDS SHOULD               
BECOME FAIRLY STRONG AND GUSTY...ESPECIALLY AT KSAW BY THE AFTN HRS             
AS MIXED LAYER BUILDS. LOW-LEVEL JET IS CURRENTLY HELPING TO                    
GENERATE A LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS MN/FAR NW WI/WRN UPPER MI.            
PCPN WILL AFFECT KCMX THRU ABOUT 14Z. BULK OF PCPN WILL PASS W OF               
KSAW...BUT IT IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION OF -SHRA THRU                
ABOUT 14Z. IN ANYCASE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO MOST OF THE            
AFTN. ADDITIONAL SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA SHOULD MOVE INTO WRN UPPER                 
MI...INCLUDING KCMX...MID TO LATE AFTN AS LOW PRES/SFC TROF                     
APPROACHES. DEFORMATION ZONE PCPN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES...               
WILL SLOWLY EDGE E THRU W INTO CNTRL UPPER MI THIS EVENING WITH MVFR            
CIGS/VSBYS. IFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER                
PCPN. CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND TO PREVAILING IFR OVERNIGHT AS SFC                
TROF HEADS E ACROSS WRN UPPER MI.                                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FCST ISSUANCE)...                           
S WINDS...GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE...WILL CONTINUE TODAY              
AHEAD OF A LOW PRES TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. EXPECT FREQUENT GUSTS TO            
30KT OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE WHICH IS FAVORED FOR STRONGER WINDS            
IN SRLY FLOW REGIMES. MAY SEE A FEW 35KT GALE FORCE GUSTS AS WELL.              
THE AREA AROUND GRAND MARAIS AT THE E END OF PICTURED ROCKS NATIONAL            
LAKESHORE IS ONE LOCATION THAT MAY SEE THE HIGHEST WINDS. WINDS WILL            
DIMINISH TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY MON AS WEAKENING LOW PRES MOVES TO              
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT            
AS THE WINDS DIMINISH. NEXT ACTIVE LOW PRES TROUGH WILL RACE E AND              
CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUE NIGHT. SRLY WINDS WILL AGAIN RAMP UP IN                 
ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH...AND IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW            
GALE FORCE GUSTS COULD OCCUR OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE LATE TUE               
AFTN/EVENING.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/FIRST PERIOD...DLG                                                     
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...AJ                                                        
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...ROLFSON                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
745 AM EDT SUN SEP 30 2007                                                      
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION                                                 
.SYNOPSIS (ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT)...                                             
07Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING               
COVERING MUCH OF THE EAST HALF OF THE U.S. INTO SE CANADA...WITH                
500MB HEIGHTS OF 582 DAM OVER UPPER MICHIGAN. TO THE WEST OF THE                
RIDGE...THE FLOW SPLITS WITH A SHRTWV TROUGH OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND              
AN UPPER LOW OVER NW COLORADO. FARTHER WEST...A DEEP TROUGH CAN BE              
SEEN DIGGING SE THROUGH THE EAST PACIFIC. CLOSER TO HOME...AN AREA              
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CROSSED UPPER MI LAST               
EVENING AND NOW ARE SITUATED OVER NE LAKE SUPERIOR. ANOTHER CLUSTER             
OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSRA ARE EXPANDING IN THE MPX AREA AND IN               
THE VICINITY OF GRB. BOTH OF THESE ARES ARE LOCATED IN A FAIRLY                 
STRONG 850MB THETA-E ADVECTION ZONE ON TOP OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.            
00Z MPX SOUNDING DEPICTED SSW WINDS OF 60 KT AT 850MB WITH A 15C                
TEMP AND 9C DEWPOINT. THESE STRONG WINDS AND 850MB MOISTURE                     
TRANSPORT EXTEND TO THE SW INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA             
WITH PROFILERS ALSO DEPICTING 55-60 KT WINDS AT 850MB. WITH THIS                
STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND HEIGHT FALLS DOWNSTREAM OF THE NW COLORADO            
UPPER LOW...STORMS HAVE OCCURRED ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW                 
LEVEL JET. IN ADDITION...THE WARM ADVECTION AND HEIGHT FALLS ARE                
SUPPORTING A 999MB LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FROM MANITOBA INTO NE                    
COLORADO. DEWPOINTS ARE BECOMING SOMEWHAT HUMID...ESPECIALLY FOR                
LATE SEPTEMBER...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S THROUGH              
MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. HIGHER DEWPOINTS THAN THIS EXIST MUCH               
FURTHER SOUTH...OVER WEST TEXAS.                                                
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT)...                                           
MANY FORECAST CONCERNS...MOSTLY PCPN FOR TODAY THROUGH MON AND TUE              
INTO TUE NIGHT.                                                                 
TODAY...UPPER LOW IN NW COLORADO WILL CONTINUE TO GET PUSHED                    
EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE EAST PACIFIC TROUGH REACHING THE PACIFIC            
NW COAST. BY 00Z...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW NEAR OMAHA. ALTHOUGH               
THE LOW IS PUSHING EASTWARD...MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS REALLY DO NOT             
FALL A WHOLE LOT OVER THE CWA UNTIL LATE...LIKELY DUE TO PERSISTENT             
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW. THUS...AFTER THE CURRENT WARM                  
ADVECTION PCPN THIS MORNING...THINGS SHOULD DIMINISH AT LEAST FOR               
THE EASTERN CWA. WILL MAINTAIN POPS FOR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND               
THE WEST HALF OF THE U.P....AND ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z AS HEIGHTS                 
BEGIN TO FALL OUT THERE. CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING OVER THE EAST HALF            
OF THE CWA SHOULD CLEAR OUT THIS AFTERNOON...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A            
BREEZY DAY. BASED ON MOMENTUM TRANSFER...GUSTS SHOULD END UP IN THE             
30-35 KT RANGE...JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT              
BE SURPRISED TO SEE LOCATIONS SUCH AS MUNISING AND GRAND MARAIS GET             
CLOSE OR SLIGHTLY OVER ADVISORY CRITERIA GIVEN THEIR FAVORED FLOW               
FOR SOUTH WINDS AND SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING 40-45 KT WINDS AT 925MB.               
THE WINDS AND CLEARING...ALONG WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 15C SHOULD               
ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. IF MORE SUN OCCURS            
THEN EXPECTED...THERE IS A CHANCE TO COME CLOSE TO OR TIE OUR RECORD            
HIGH AT THE OFFICE OF 80 SET IN 2000.                                           
TONIGHT...UPPER RIDGING WILL REBUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE EAST              
PACIFIC NW TROUGH MOVES INTO WASHINGTON AND OREGON STATE. THIS                  
REBUILDING OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FORCE THE UPPER LOW NEAR OMAHA TO            
LIFT NE AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE TO ITS EAST. BY 12Z MON...THE LOW             
SHOULD BE LOCATED NEAR APPLETON WI. MORE IMPRESSIVE HEIGHT FALLS                
COMPARED TO TODAY...ALONG WITH SOME MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE            
WESTERN U.P...SHOULD SUPPORT AN EXPANSION AND INTENSIFICATION OF                
PCPN OVER THE CWA. WILL RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL OVER THE WEST HALF            
OF THE CWA GIVEN CONSISTENT MODEL AGREEMENT FOR PCPN THERE. FOR THE             
EASTERN CWA...HAVE ONLY WENT WITH LIKELY VALUES AS HEIGHT FALLS ARE             
LATEST TO HIT THERE. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...AROUND 1.5                
INCHES OR 250 PERCENT OF NORMAL...COULD SUPPORT SOME HEAVY RAINFALL             
AMOUNTS. THE NAM INDICATES THIS WITH 3.1 INCHES AT IWD BETWEEN                  
00-12Z. GIVEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND HIGH DEWPOINTS SUGGESTS A               
WARM NIGHT...PROBABLY NOT TOO FAR FROM AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES.               
MON...RIDGE AXIS OVER THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT INTO WESTERN WI BY 00Z              
AS THE WESTERN TROUGH CONTINUES TO PLOW EASTWARD. THIS WILL CAUSE               
THE UPPER LOW TO SHIFT TO NEAR LAKE HURON. DNVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE             
RIDGE AXIS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWERS TO END BY 18Z OVER THE WEST HALF OF             
THE CWA AND OVER MUCH OF THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA BY 00Z. WILL                  
MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF LIKELY POPS OVER THE EASTERN CWA IN THE MORNING            
WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. ALTHOUGH THE SHOWERS END...DRYING ALOFT             
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE APPEARS TO SET UP A SUBSIDENCE                  
INVERSION. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE               
RAIN TONIGHT SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF A LOW STRATUS DECK GETTING             
STUCK OVER MUCH OF THE U.P.. WINDS TURNING NORTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF            
A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW COULD ALSO RESULT IN                
SOME MIST AND OR DRIZZLE OVER UPSLOPE AREAS. GIVEN ALL THE CLOUD                
COVER... TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH.                                       
MON NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE NIGHT              
WHILE THE WESTERN TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS.                     
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE SHOULD EFFECTIVELY END ANY PCPN IN THE               
EVENING...WHICH WOULD BE LOCATED IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE              
CWA. STILL...CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED                
UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. DRYING ABOVE THE INVERSION AND LIGHT            
WINDS SHOULD SUPPORT FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER LAND...AND PERHAPS ON THE             
GREAT LAKES TOO. HAVE INCREASED THE COVERAGE TO AREAS OF FOG. IF ANY            
CLEARING CAN DEVELOP IN THE LOW STRATUS DECK...DENSE FOG DEVELOPING             
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE...HAVE               
STAYED ABOVE THE COLDER MET GUIDANCE WITH READINGS CLOSER TO MAV                
GUIDANCE.                                                                       
TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...THE BREAK IN PCPN OBSERVED MON NIGHT WILL BE               
BRIEF AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS MOVES EAST AT A               
GOOD CLIP. STRONG DPVA FROM HEIGHT FALLS MOVING ACROSS WARM                     
ADVECTION AT THE LOW LEVELS (ANOTHER 50-60 KT JET AT 850MB PROGGED)             
SUGGESTS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM IN THE                 
VICINITY OF THE TROUGHS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. IN                       
ADDITION...STRONG 850MB THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING            
ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN IN THE MORNING COULD SUPPORT SOME                 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (SIMILAR TO TODAY). MODEL RUN-TO-RUN AND              
BETWEEN MODEL CONSISTENCY IS REMARKABLY GREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND            
THUS HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL                        
THUNDERSTORMS. VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM               
WOULD SUGGEST A SEVERE THREAT...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THERE IS VERY                
LITTLE CAPE AVAILABLE. SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK HAS AREA ONLY IN 5 PERCENT             
AT THIS TIME...AND GIVEN THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF                    
CAPE...HAVE DECLINED TO MENTION ANY SEVERE POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO.              
IF MORE SUN CAN OCCUR ON TUE...THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER            
WOULD GO UP. MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THAT ANOTHER                
SURGE OF 1.5-1.75 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE PROGGED WITH               
THE FRONT. CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND             
UPPER TROUGH AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALL TO 0.5 INCHES ACROSS             
THE ENTIRE CWA BY 12Z WED. THIS COOLER AND DRY AIR BUT BREEZY WEST              
TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN READINGS SIMILAR TO THOSE MON               
NIGHT.                                                                          
WED THROUGH SUN...FLOW TURNS ZONAL WED...WITH WESTERLY FLOW HELPING             
TO BRING MILD PACIFIC AIR INTO THE AREA. THEN FOR THU THROUGH                   
SAT...ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH              
THE WESTERN STATES...HEADING OUT INTO THE PLAINS ON SAT. THE RESULT             
IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE DAKOTAS. WARM              
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL            
ABOVE NORMAL. GFS/ECMWF BOTH DEPICT 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO 14-16C.             
BY SAT...WE COULD BE TALKING ABOUT ANOTHER DAY OF HUMID CONDITIONS              
AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES AHEAD OF            
THE APPROACHING TROUGH/COLD FRONT. UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA               
SAT NIGHT WILL BRING IN MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ON SUN...ASSUMING THE            
TROUGH CAN PUSH EAST INTO THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN BUILT OUT AHEAD OF            
IT. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SCENARIO CLOSELY AS THE PATTERN COULD               
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN.                                           
NOTE: WE NEED 0.28 INCHES OF PCPN AT THE OFFICE BY 05Z TONIGHT TO               
BREAK THE ALL TIME WETTEST SEPTEMBER RECORD. PREVIOUS RECORD IS 7.60            
SET IN 1968.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
LATEST KMQT VAD WIND PROFILE INDICATES 40KT SRLY WINDS AT 500FT AGL.            
SO...LLWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MENTIONED AT KCMX/KSAW UNTIL MIXED                
LAYER BUILDS SUFFICIENTLY TO EASE SHARP SPEED CHANGE BTWN SFC WINDS             
AND STRONGER WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK. IN FACT...SRLY WINDS SHOULD               
BECOME FAIRLY STRONG AND GUSTY...ESPECIALLY AT KSAW BY THE AFTN HRS             
AS MIXED LAYER BUILDS. LOW-LEVEL JET IS CURRENTLY HELPING TO                    
GENERATE A LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS MN/FAR NW WI/WRN UPPER MI.            
PCPN WILL AFFECT KCMX THRU ABOUT 14Z. BULK OF PCPN WILL PASS W OF               
KSAW...BUT IT IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION OF -SHRA THRU                
ABOUT 14Z. IN ANYCASE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO MOST OF THE            
AFTN. ADDITIONAL SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA SHOULD MOVE INTO WRN UPPER                 
MI...INCLUDING KCMX...MID TO LATE AFTN AS LOW PRES/SFC TROF                     
APPROACHES. DEFORMATION ZONE PCPN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES...               
WILL SLOWLY EDGE E THRU W INTO CNTRL UPPER MI THIS EVENING WITH MVFR            
CIGS/VSBYS. IFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER                
PCPN. CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND TO PREVAILING IFR OVERNIGHT AS SFC                
TROF HEADS E ACROSS WRN UPPER MI.                                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FCST ISSUANCE)...                           
S WINDS...GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE...WILL CONTINUE TODAY              
AHEAD OF A LOW PRES TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. EXPECT FREQUENT GUSTS TO            
30KT OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE WHICH IS FAVORED FOR STRONGER WINDS            
IN SRLY FLOW REGIMES. MAY SEE A FEW 35KT GALE FORCE GUSTS AS WELL.              
THE AREA AROUND GRAND MARAIS AT THE E END OF PICTURED ROCKS NATIONAL            
LAKESHORE IS ONE LOCATION THAT MAY SEE THE HIGHEST WINDS. WINDS WILL            
DIMINISH TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY MON AS WEAKENING LOW PRES MOVES TO              
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT            
AS THE WINDS DIMINISH. NEXT ACTIVE LOW PRES TROUGH WILL RACE E AND              
CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUE NIGHT. SRLY WINDS WILL AGAIN RAMP UP IN                 
ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH...AND IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW            
GALE FORCE GUSTS COULD OCCUR OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE LATE TUE               
AFTN/EVENING.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...AJ                                                        
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...ROLFSON                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
422 AM EDT SUN SEP 30 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
07Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING               
COVERING MUCH OF THE EAST HALF OF THE U.S. INTO SE CANADA...WITH                
500MB HEIGHTS OF 582 DAM OVER UPPER MICHIGAN. TO THE WEST OF THE                
RIDGE...THE FLOW SPLITS WITH A SHRTWV TROUGH OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND              
AN UPPER LOW OVER NW COLORADO. FARTHER WEST...A DEEP TROUGH CAN BE              
SEEN DIGGING SE THROUGH THE EAST PACIFIC. CLOSER TO HOME...AN AREA              
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CROSSED UPPER MI LAST               
EVENING AND NOW ARE SITUATED OVER NE LAKE SUPERIOR. ANOTHER CLUSTER             
OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSRA ARE EXPANDING IN THE MPX AREA AND IN               
THE VICINITY OF GRB. BOTH OF THESE ARES ARE LOCATED IN A FAIRLY                 
STRONG 850MB THETA-E ADVECTION ZONE ON TOP OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.            
00Z MPX SOUNDING DEPICTED SSW WINDS OF 60 KT AT 850MB WITH A 15C                
TEMP AND 9C DEWPOINT. THESE STRONG WINDS AND 850MB MOISTURE                     
TRANSPORT EXTEND TO THE SW INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA             
WITH PROFILERS ALSO DEPICTING 55-60 KT WINDS AT 850MB. WITH THIS                
STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND HEIGHT FALLS DOWNSTREAM OF THE NW COLORADO            
UPPER LOW...STORMS HAVE OCCURRED ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW                 
LEVEL JET. IN ADDITION...THE WARM ADVECTION AND HEIGHT FALLS ARE                
SUPPORTING A 999MB LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FROM MANITOBA INTO NE                    
COLORADO. DEWPOINTS ARE BECOMING SOMEWHAT HUMID...ESPECIALLY FOR                
LATE SEPTEMBER...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S THROUGH              
MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. HIGHER DEWPOINTS THAN THIS EXIST MUCH               
FURTHER SOUTH...OVER WEST TEXAS.                                                
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MANY FORECAST CONCERNS...MOSTLY PCPN FOR TODAY THROUGH MON AND TUE              
INTO TUE NIGHT.                                                                 
TODAY...UPPER LOW IN NW COLORADO WILL CONTINUE TO GET PUSHED                    
EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE EAST PACIFIC TROUGH REACHING THE PACIFIC            
NW COAST. BY 00Z...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW NEAR OMAHA. ALTHOUGH               
THE LOW IS PUSHING EASTWARD...MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS REALLY DO NOT             
FALL A WHOLE LOT OVER THE CWA UNTIL LATE...LIKELY DUE TO PERSISTENT             
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW. THUS...AFTER THE CURRENT WARM                  
ADVECTION PCPN THIS MORNING...THINGS SHOULD DIMINISH AT LEAST FOR               
THE EASTERN CWA. WILL MAINTAIN POPS FOR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND               
THE WEST HALF OF THE U.P....AND ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z AS HEIGHTS                 
BEGIN TO FALL OUT THERE. CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING OVER THE EAST HALF            
OF THE CWA SHOULD CLEAR OUT THIS AFTERNOON...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A            
BREEZY DAY. BASED ON MOMENTUM TRANSFER...GUSTS SHOULD END UP IN THE             
30-35 KT RANGE...JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT              
BE SURPRISED TO SEE LOCATIONS SUCH AS MUNISING AND GRAND MARAIS GET             
CLOSE OR SLIGHTLY OVER ADVISORY CRITERIA GIVEN THEIR FAVORED FLOW               
FOR SOUTH WINDS AND SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING 40-45 KT WINDS AT 925MB.               
THE WINDS AND CLEARING...ALONG WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 15C SHOULD               
ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. IF MORE SUN OCCURS            
THEN EXPECTED...THERE IS A CHANCE TO COME CLOSE TO OR TIE OUR RECORD            
HIGH AT THE OFFICE OF 80 SET IN 2000.                                           
TONIGHT...UPPER RIDGING WILL REBUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE EAST              
PACIFIC NW TROUGH MOVES INTO WASHINGTON AND OREGON STATE. THIS                  
REBUILDING OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FORCE THE UPPER LOW NEAR OMAHA TO            
LIFT NE AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE TO ITS EAST. BY 12Z MON...THE LOW             
SHOULD BE LOCATED NEAR APPLETON WI. MORE IMPRESSIVE HEIGHT FALLS                
COMPARED TO TODAY...ALONG WITH SOME MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE            
WESTERN U.P...SHOULD SUPPORT AN EXPANSION AND INTENSIFICATION OF                
PCPN OVER THE CWA. WILL RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL OVER THE WEST HALF            
OF THE CWA GIVEN CONSISTENT MODEL AGREEMENT FOR PCPN THERE. FOR THE             
EASTERN CWA...HAVE ONLY WENT WITH LIKELY VALUES AS HEIGHT FALLS ARE             
LATEST TO HIT THERE. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...AROUND 1.5                
INCHES OR 250 PERCENT OF NORMAL...COULD SUPPORT SOME HEAVY RAINFALL             
AMOUNTS. THE NAM INDICATES THIS WITH 3.1 INCHES AT IWD BETWEEN                  
00-12Z. GIVEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND HIGH DEWPOINTS SUGGESTS A               
WARM NIGHT...PROBABLY NOT TOO FAR FROM AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES.               
MON...RIDGE AXIS OVER THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT INTO WESTERN WI BY 00Z              
AS THE WESTERN TROUGH CONTINUES TO PLOW EASTWARD. THIS WILL CAUSE               
THE UPPER LOW TO SHIFT TO NEAR LAKE HURON. DNVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE             
RIDGE AXIS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWERS TO END BY 18Z OVER THE WEST HALF OF             
THE CWA AND OVER MUCH OF THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA BY 00Z. WILL                  
MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF LIKELY POPS OVER THE EASTERN CWA IN THE MORNING            
WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. ALTHOUGH THE SHOWERS END...DRYING ALOFT             
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE APPEARS TO SET UP A SUBSIDENCE                  
INVERSION. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE               
RAIN TONIGHT SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF A LOW STRATUS DECK GETTING             
STUCK OVER MUCH OF THE U.P.. WINDS TURNING NORTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF            
A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW COULD ALSO RESULT IN                
SOME MIST AND OR DRIZZLE OVER UPSLOPE AREAS. GIVEN ALL THE CLOUD                
COVER... TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH.                                       
MON NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE NIGHT              
WHILE THE WESTERN TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS.                     
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE SHOULD EFFECTIVELY END ANY PCPN IN THE               
EVENING...WHICH WOULD BE LOCATED IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE              
CWA. STILL...CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED                
UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. DRYING ABOVE THE INVERSION AND LIGHT            
WINDS SHOULD SUPPORT FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER LAND...AND PERHAPS ON THE             
GREAT LAKES TOO. HAVE INCREASED THE COVERAGE TO AREAS OF FOG. IF ANY            
CLEARING CAN DEVELOP IN THE LOW STRATUS DECK...DENSE FOG DEVELOPING             
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE...HAVE               
STAYED ABOVE THE COLDER MET GUIDANCE WITH READINGS CLOSER TO MAV                
GUIDANCE.                                                                       
TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...THE BREAK IN PCPN OBSERVED MON NIGHT WILL BE               
BRIEF AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS MOVES EAST AT A               
GOOD CLIP. STRONG DPVA FROM HEIGHT FALLS MOVING ACROSS WARM                     
ADVECTION AT THE LOW LEVELS (ANOTHER 50-60 KT JET AT 850MB PROGGED)             
SUGGESTS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM IN THE                 
VICINITY OF THE TROUGHS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. IN                       
ADDITION...STRONG 850MB THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING            
ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN IN THE MORNING COULD SUPPORT SOME                 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (SIMILAR TO TODAY). MODEL RUN-TO-RUN AND              
BETWEEN MODEL CONSISTENCY IS REMARKABLY GREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND            
THUS HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL                        
THUNDERSTORMS. VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM               
WOULD SUGGEST A SEVERE THREAT...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THERE IS VERY                
LITTLE CAPE AVAILABLE. SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK HAS AREA ONLY IN 5 PERCENT             
AT THIS TIME...AND GIVEN THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF                    
CAPE...HAVE DECLINED TO MENTION ANY SEVERE POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO.              
IF MORE SUN CAN OCCUR ON TUE...THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER            
WOULD GO UP. MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THAT ANOTHER                
SURGE OF 1.5-1.75 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE PROGGED WITH               
THE FRONT. CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND             
UPPER TROUGH AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALL TO 0.5 INCHES ACROSS             
THE ENTIRE CWA BY 12Z WED. THIS COOLER AND DRY AIR BUT BREEZY WEST              
TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN READINGS SIMILAR TO THOSE MON               
NIGHT.                                                                          
WED THROUGH SUN...FLOW TURNS ZONAL WED...WITH WESTERLY FLOW HELPING             
TO BRING MILD PACIFIC AIR INTO THE AREA. THEN FOR THU THROUGH                   
SAT...ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH              
THE WESTERN STATES...HEADING OUT INTO THE PLAINS ON SAT. THE RESULT             
IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE DAKOTAS. WARM              
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL            
ABOVE NORMAL. GFS/ECMWF BOTH DEPICT 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO 14-16C.             
BY SAT...WE COULD BE TALKING ABOUT ANOTHER DAY OF HUMID CONDITIONS              
AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES AHEAD OF            
THE APPROACHING TROUGH/COLD FRONT. UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA               
SAT NIGHT WILL BRING IN MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ON SUN...ASSUMING THE            
TROUGH CAN PUSH EAST INTO THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN BUILT OUT AHEAD OF            
IT. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SCENARIO CLOSELY AS THE PATTERN COULD               
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN.                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUPPORTED BY 40-50 KT              
INFLOW INTO A 850-700 MB WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST             
OUT OF UPPER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. LLWS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO                
PERSIST DURING THE NIGHT WITH THE PRES GRADIENT REMAINING TIGHT                 
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR             
CONDITIONS AFTER THE SHRA/TSRA DEPART AFT 06Z. SURFACE HEATING WILL             
AID MIXING WITH SOUTH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT EXPECTED.                      
ADDITIONAL SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA MAY MOVE INTO WEST UPPER MI...                   
INCLUDING KCMX...BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW APPROACHES. THE            
DEFORMATION ZONE PCPN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL SLOWLY                
EDGE EASTWARD THROUGH WEST INTO CENTRAL UPPER MI WEDNESDAY EVENING              
WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.                                                           
NOTE: WE NEED 0.28 INCHES OF PCPN AT THE OFFICE BY 05Z TONIGHT TO               
BREAK THE ALL TIME WETTEST SEPTEMBER RECORD. PREVIOUS RECORD IS 7.60            
SET IN 1968.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FCST ISSUANCE)...                           
S WINDS...GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE...WILL CONTINUE TODAY              
AHEAD OF A LOW PRES TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. EXPECT FREQUENT GUSTS TO            
30KT OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE WHICH IS FAVORED FOR STRONGER WINDS            
IN SRLY FLOW REGIMES. MAY SEE A FEW 35KT GALE FORCE GUSTS AS WELL.              
THE AREA AROUND GRAND MARAIS AT THE E END OF PICTURED ROCKS NATIONAL            
LAKESHORE IS ONE LOCATION THAT MAY SEE THE HIGHEST WINDS. WINDS WILL            
DIMINISH TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY MON AS WEAKENING LOW PRES MOVES TO              
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT            
AS THE WINDS DIMINISH. NEXT ACTIVE LOW PRES TROUGH WILL RACE E AND              
CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUE NIGHT. SRLY WINDS WILL AGAIN RAMP UP IN                 
ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH...AND IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW            
GALE FORCE GUSTS COULD OCCUR OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE LATE TUE               
AFTN/EVENING.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...AJ                                                        
AVIATION...JLB                                                                  
MARINE...ROLFSON                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
130 AM EDT SUN SEP 30 2007                                                      
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION                                                 
.UPDATE (ISSUED AT 1020 PM EDT)...                                              
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDESTORMS SUPPORTED BY STRONG BAND OF                   
305K-310K ISENTROPIC LIFT...50-55 KT SW INFLOW TOWARD THE 800-700 MB            
FRONT...AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WERE LIFTING STEADILY ENE                   
THROUGH UPPER MI. SOME REDEVELOPMENT ON THE SW EDGE HAS BEEN                    
OVSERVED AND A FEW ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA WERE NOTED OVER CNTRL WI.               
MUCAPE VALUES TO AROUND 500 J/KG WITH 10C DEWPOINTS IN THE 800-750              
MB LAYER...PER TAMDAR SOUNDINGS...WAS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME TSRA               
WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS AND 00Z NAM/RUC              
ISENTROPIC PROGS SUGGEST THAT THE PCPN BAND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT               
ENE EVEN IF ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE             
BAND SLOW ITS PROGRESS.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUN)...                                                
EARLY AFTERNOON WV LOOP SHOWING S/WV THAT WAS OVER MN EARLIER TODAY             
NOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN WI. REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE CONTINUING TO             
SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE                
ARROWHEAD OF MN AND ACROSS CENTRAL WI AHEAD OF THE S/WV. THIS PRECIP            
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO A DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS UPPER MI...BUT THE            
AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN OVER TIME. IT APPEARS BEST CHANCE              
OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE DURING THE EVENING HOURS TO                 
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE PERIOD WHEN BEST ISENTROPIC            
LIFT ALIGNS WITH ADDED LIFT FROM PASSING S/WV.  WILL CONTINUE TO                
TAPER POPS FROM HI CHANCE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TO NO POPS IN THE SOUTH.           
AFTER S/WV MOVES THROUGH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING WILL BE LEFT            
TO SQUEEZE OUT PRECIPITATION AS BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARM                   
ADVECTION WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD. AFTER MIDNIGHT...HIGHEST POPS WILL              
BE REFOCUSED OUT WEST CLOSER TO THE MAIN UPPER TROF WHERE                       
ADDITIONAL WEAK S/WV WILL BE RIPPLING NORTHEASTWARD IN FAST                     
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW. AS UPPER TROF GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA ON              
SUNDAY EXPECT POPS TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.            
MOISTURE WILL HAVE INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY BY THEN WITH PWS IN                  
EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES.                                                           
STILL LOOKS LIKE A BREEZY DAY ON SUNDAY WITH 35-40KT AVBL TO BE                 
TAPPED 1-2KFT AGL AS MIXED LAYER BUILDS. THE NCNTRL AND ERN FCST                
AREA SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY FAVORED FOR WINDY CONDITIONS IN THIS SRLY             
FLOW SITUATION. HOWEVER...GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX DURING THE               
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE TROF GETS CLOSER.                                          
.LONG TERM (SUN NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SAT)...                                      
UPPER AIR PATTERN VERY AMPLIFIED TO BEGIN THEN TRANSITIONS TO MORE              
OF A BROAD TROUGH IN THE WEST AND RIDGE IN THE EAST BY NEXT WEEKEND.            
TWO SHARP WELL DEFINED UPR LEVEL TROUGHS AFFECT THE UPR GREAT LAKES             
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. LEADING SYSTEM IS DUE IN SUN NIGHT INTO             
MON IS WELL AGREED UPON AND SHOULD EXIT LATE MON AFTN/MON EVENING.              
00Z ECMWF PREFERRED FOR DETAILS. UPR LOW LIFTS INTO NORTHERN MN BY              
00Z MON WITH STRONG S WINDS ON FRONT SIDE OF TROUGH BRINGING UP                 
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AS EVIDENCED BY H85 DEWPOINTS TO +10C AND PWATS               
NEAR 1.75 INCHES WHICH IS APPROXIMATELY A WHOPPING 250 PCT OF                   
NORMAL. PVA AND H85 CONVERGENCE COMBINES WITH DEEP MOISTURE SOME                
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A LIKELY PERIOD OF SHOWERS.            
AS SYSTEM BEGINS TO OCCLUDE PSEUDO TROF OF WARM AIR ALOFT SHOWS UP              
LOOKING AT H7 THETA-E. THIS FEATURE WILL DRAG ACROSS THE EAST CWA ON            
MON SO LINGERING LIKELY POPS OVER THOSE AREAS ON MON MORNING. ONCE              
UPR LOW DEPARTS...A WEAK SFC TROUGH IS LEFT TO LINGER OVR THE AREA              
MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. SETUP SEEMS LIKE IT FAVORS SOME FOG AFTER             
RAIN ENDS MON EVENING. LACK OF MIXING MAY ALLOW THE FOG TO STICK                
AROUND UNTIL MIXING LATER TUE.                                                  
SECOND UPR TROUGH FOLLOWS QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE SUN NIGHT AND             
MON ONE. ECMWF AND CANADIAN PREFERRED AS GFS APPEARS A BIT TOO                  
STRONG. OVERALL THOUGH...GOOD AGREEMENT ON GENERAL IDEA WITH THIS               
SYSTEM TOO. QUICK MOVEMENT LEADS TO BEST CHANCES OF RAIN TUE NIGHT.             
00Z ECMWF INDICATES FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRIGGERING PCPN IS ALREADY                 
THROUGH CWA BY 12Z WED. ENDED PCPN A BIT QUICKER BASED ON LATEST                
MODEL TRENDS.                                                                   
TO CLOSE THE WEEK...WSW FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO TROUGH OVER               
WESTERN CONUS AND EAST COAST RIDGE. H5 HEIGHTS INTO THE 570-575DAM              
RANGE. HIGHS INTO THE 70S SEEM APPROPRIATE. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR               
THU/FRI INDICATES HIGHS IN THE LWR 70S. CONSIDERING THIS GUIDANCE IS            
BIASED TOWARD CLIMO AND THIS IS A LARGE DEPARTURE FM CLIMO...TEMPS              
COULD END UP REACHING NEAR 80. 80S CERTAINLY NOT UNHEARD OF FOR THIS            
TIME OF YEAR AS AN 80 DEGREE OR HIGHER READING HAS BEEN OBSERVED AT             
THE NWS OFFICE AS LATE AS OCT 17. QUICK GLANCE AT ENSEMBLES AND FAR             
REACHES OF ECMWF/GFS INDICATE A BRIEF BOUT OF COOLER WEATHER ON THE             
HORIZON DAYS 7-10. HOWEVER...THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS THAT WARMER             
WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP AGAIN INTO THE MIDDLE OF OCT.                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUPPORTED BY 40-50 KT              
INLOW INTO A 850-700 MB WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST              
OUT OF UPPER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. LLWS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO                
PERSIST DURING THE NIGHT WITH THE PRES GRADIENT REMAINING TIGHT                 
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR             
CONDITIONS AFTER THE SHRA/TSRA DEPART AFT 06Z. SURFACE HEATING WILL             
AID MIXING WITH SOUTH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT EXPECTED.                      
ADDITIONAL SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA MAY MOVE INTO WEST UPPER MI...                   
INCLUDING KCMX...BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW APPROACHES. THE            
DEFORMATION ZONE PCPN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL SLOWLY                
EDGE EASTWARD THROUGH WEST INTO CENTRAL UPPER MI WEDNESDAY EVENING              
WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FCST ISSUANCE)...                           
S WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE WILL CONTINUE LATE THIS AFTERNOON              
AS SFC HIGH MOVES E OF THE AREA AND LOW PRES OVER THE DAKOTAS SHIFTS            
EAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT MORE TONIGHT AS INCREASE IN                     
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET OCCURS. EXPECT WINDS TO 30 KT INTO SUNDAY               
WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...JLB                                                                    
SHORT TERM...MZ                                                                 
LONG TERM...JLA                                                                 
AVIATION...JLB                                                                  
MARINE...MZ                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
325 PM CDT MON OCT 1 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW OFF TO THE EAST CROSSING LAKE MICHIGAN THIS              
AFTERNOON. LULL IN THE SFC FLOW OVERHEAD WITH MODERATE SOUTHERLY                
WINDS SETTING UP ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. LOW CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO               
WORK SLOWLY EASTWARD AND SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE TWIN CITIES METRO              
AND POINTS DUE NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH                   
COVERAGE REMAINING OVER MUCH OF THE WISCONSIN CWA. SOME PATCHY FOG              
MAY DEVELOP UNDER AXIS OF WEAK SFC FLOW OVER THE WISCONSIN COUNTIES             
TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE.                             
FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH CROSSING INTO THE WESTERN ROCKIES THIS                 
AFTERNOON WILL SPEED EASTWARD BRINGING SFC LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY               
OVER WESTERN SASKATCHEWAN AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. FRONT              
ENTERS WESTERN MINNESOTA AROUND 12Z TUESDAY WITH UPPER WAVE CLOSE ON            
ITS HEELS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD              
OF THE FRONT DURING THE MORNING AND RAPIDLY MOVE EASTWARD. ONE                  
LIMITING FACTOR...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WILL BE                 
SPEED OF MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ACTIVITY MAY BE                    
SOMEWHAT LIMITED DURING THE MORNING BUT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY              
MIDDAY...OR ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL                      
WISCONSIN. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED BUT LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP            
SO WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR MINIMAL HAIL THREAT WITH STRONGER                     
UPDRAFTS. STORMS WILL MOVE SWIFTLY EASTWARD BUT DEEPENING MOISTURE              
WILL ALLOW FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR EAST CENTRAL             
MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. RIDGING QUICKLY FILLS IN BEHIND THE FRONT               
WEDNESDAY EVENING.                                                              
MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF             
THE WEEK. INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO CHANGE SO HAVE LOOKED          
TO TRENDS IN THEIR SOLUTIONS TO HELP DETERMINE HOW THINGS MAY PAN               
OUT. ONE THING REMAINS CONSISTENT AND THAT IS THAT MID WEEK ZONAL               
FLOW WILL BE REPLACED BY AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH WHICH                  
INDUCES SFC CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE PLAINS. TRENDS OF THE LAST FEW              
RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN TO SLOW THE PROGRESS OF THE                 
UPPER TROUGH...WHEREAS THE TREND SEEN YESTERDAY WAS TO SPEED THINGS             
UP. MEANWHILE...THE GFS NOW WANTS TO DEVELOP THE WARM FRONT ACROSS              
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AS EARLY AS THURSDAY MORNING WITH A SURFACE WAVE              
EJECTING NORTHEAST FROM NEBRASKA FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS A FAIRLY               
LARGE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY. HAVE KEPT THURSDAY DRY FOR NOW WITH                
POPS INCREASING THURSDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AS UPPER LOW               
APPROACHES A SECOND SFC LOW DEVELOPS AND CREATES MORE OF AN INVERTED            
TROUGH WHICH SETS UP OVER THE AREA FOR SATURDAY. UPPER LOW SLOWLY               
COMES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY AND CATCHES              
UP TO SFC TROUGH HELPING IT TO CLOSE OFF AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE                
UPPER GREAT LAKES. ECMWF A BIT CONSISTENT WITH WAA PASSING OVER                 
FRIDAY WITH WARM AIR IN PLACE INTO SATURDAY WITH PRECIP ARRIVING                
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A              
DRIER FORECAST OVERALL. SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT               
APPEAR TO BE THE BEST TIMES FOR PRECIPITATION...OR AT LEAST THAT IS             
WHERE THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE LIES. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE SUNDAY                
PRECIP FORECAST THOUGH AM THINKING BULK OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY. GFS             
HAS BEEN WAVERING WITH THE SPEED AT WHICH THE UPPER LOW EXITS AND               
THUS HOW LONG THE PRECIP STAYS IN THE AREA. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL BE             
IN PLACE BY THEN AND HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL IN              
MANY AREAS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. ALSO OF NOTE...GFS               
ENSEMBLE CONFIDENCE GRAPHICS INDICATE INCREASED SPREAD AMONG MEMBERS            
WITH RECENT RUNS AND THUS LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR THE WEEKEND. THE                 
UPPER LOW CUTS OFF SOMEWHERE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES OR OHIO                 
VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUING.                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
CONCERNS FOR THE VALID TAF PERIOD REVOLVE AROUND LO STRATOCU DECK               
WITH PRIMARILY MVFR CIGS THAT HAS REMAINED OVR THE ERN 3 TAF                    
SITES...MSP/RNH/EAU...THRU THE DAY. ERN EDGE EXTENDS FROM ABOUT CBG             
TO THE WRN SIDES OF THE TWIN CITIES TO W OF AEL...AND THE EWRD                  
MOVEMENT SHUD SLOW DOWN AS DAYTIME MIXING SLOWS WITH SUNSET. LATEST             
RUC PROGS SHOW THAT THE LO CLDS COULD HANG AROUND EAU AND MAYBE RNH             
FOR AWHILE THIS EVE...ALTHO MSP SHUD BREAK OUT LATE THIS AFTN OR                
EARLY THIS EVE. WITH LO LVL MSTR AND LGT WINDS FROM THE PROXIMITY OF            
THE SFC RDG IN THE EAU VICINITY...FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE TOWARD                
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...THE NEXT ISSUE BECOMES SHRA/TSRA ALNG THE                  
APPROACHING CDFNT TOMORROW.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MDB/KAT                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
1027 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
12Z UPPR AIR ANLYS INDCD CLOSED H5 LO OVR NE CO ASSOCIATED WITH 70              
TO 80 M HEIGHT FALLS ACRS THE WRN HI PLAINS. AT H3 100 KT JET                   
EXTNDD FM SE CO INTO WRN NEB. OAX CWA WAS CURRENTLY RIGHT IN THE                
MIDDLE OF THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WITH +10 AT H7..BUT UPSTREAM                 
COOLING WAS NOTED AT KLBF AND KBOU. AT H85...LO WAS CENTERED NR                 
KLBF WITH THE MOIST AXIS FM THE SRN PLAINS INTO CNTRL NEB WITH +15              
C DEW POINTS. 15Z SFC ANLYS INDCD 1005 MB LO OVR KGRI WITH SFC DRY              
LINE MIXING THRU CNTRL KS AND THE CDFNT MOVING INTO OUR NW CWA.                 
CURRENT TSRA ACTIVITY FM SE NEB INTO WRN IA SHLD CONT TO MOV OFF                
TO THE E THIS AFTN AND IS BASED ABOVE THE EML OR ARND 700 MB. MORE              
IMPORTANTLY...SFC LO OVR CNTRL NEB IS EXPECTED TO CONT TO TRACK                 
EWD INTO WEST CENTRAL IA BY MID AFTERNOON. SFC DRY LINE IS EXPECTED             
TO MIX EAST QUICKLY INTO SW IA. THIS SETS UP AN INTERESTING                     
CORRIDOR OF POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO                
WEST CENTRAL IA...JUST TO THE EAST OF THE SFC LO AND JUST SOUTH OF              
THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. IN THIS AREA...WHERE SOME PARTIAL                     
CLEANING IS TAKING PLACE...CAPE VALUES OF UP TO 1000 J/KG ARE                   
EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTN. AS LARGE SCALE FORCING...SEEN WELL IN THE               
500 TO 300 MB DIV-Q ADVANCING EWD THIS AFTN ASSOCIATED WITH THE                 
UPPER LO...LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO SIG                    
INCREASE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND THEN INCREASE               
IN COVERAGE OVR NE NEB ARND OR SHORTLY AFTER 18Z AND THEN TRACK                 
EWD INTO WEST CENTRAL IA. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR                
SUPERCELLS IN THIS AREA. LO LVL SHEAR IS STRONG...BUT LITTLE                    
DEEPENING OF THE SFC LO IS EXPECTED THRU THE AFTN AND SFC WINDS                 
ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE SSW AS THE SYSTEM NEARS. THUS LO LVL                
TURNING WITHIN THE HODOGRAPH IS MARGINAL. NEVERTHELESS...THE LO                 
LVL BULK SHEAR VALUES OF IMPRESSIVE AND THUS CAN NOT RULE OUT AN                
ISOLATED TORNADO...BUT EXPECTED WIND TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.                     
RELATIVELY WARM MID LVL TMPS...AND A SKINNY AND LONG CAPE PROFILE               
WILL LIKELY KEEP VERY LARGE HAIL THREAT AT A MINIMUM. FARTHER                   
SOUTH ALONG THE DRY LINE STORMS MAY STRONGER FOR A LONGER TIME                  
GETTING GOING DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE WITH                
THE SOUTHWEST WINDS. THUS BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED                 
ALONG THE DRY LINE FARTHER EAST INTO IA/MO.                                     
DID UPDATE THE FORECAST EARLIER TO REDUCE POPS OVR THE WRN CWA THRU             
THE MRNG...BUT OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST SEEMS IN GOOD SHAPE. POST               
DRY LINE WINDS OVR THE SW CWA SHLD GET CLOSE OR MEET ADVISORY                   
CRITERIA AND THUS WL KEEP CURRENT ADVRY GOING FOR THAT AREA.                    
BOUSTEAD                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
WILL FOCUS ON SHORT TERM CONCERNS WITH WX ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSE               
CLOSED MID TROPOSPHERIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND IF HEADLINES ARE NEEDED.        
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS HAD THE CLOSED MID TROPOSHPERIC LOW OVR NW              
CO WITH SOME SHORTWAVE TROF ENERGY LIFTING N INTO SD. THE TSRA ARE              
MOST ACTIVE ACRS SD...HOWEVER EXTEND SW ACRS PARTS OF NEB INTO NW               
KS...THE OK PNHLD...AND TO ERN NM. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEPER               
MOISTURE IS NOSING INTO SD AND EXTENDS S IN THE SAME AREA AS WHERE              
THE TSRA ARE. PER THE H7 ANALYSIS...THERE ARE ELEVATED STEEP LAPSE              
RATE ALONG WITH GOOD 0-3KM HELICITY ACRS NE NEB.                                
THE INTENSE MID LEVEL LOW OVER CO WILL TRACK ACROSS NEBRASKA TODAY              
AND INTO IOWA TONIGHT. AHEAD OF IT...THE NLGN1 PROFILER HAD H85                 
SW WINDS AT 45 KTS AND THE RWDN1/HVLK1 PROFILERS HAD 55KT LOW                   
LEVEL WINDS. SPC HAS THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR STORMS MAINLY OVR IA               
INTO MO AND ERN KS TODAY. THE BETTER THETA-E ADVECTION IS TO OUR                
EAST...HOWEVER STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE STILL FCST OVR THE ERN PART                
OF NEB INTO IA AT 18Z AND THE RUC IS SHOWING SOME INTENSE                       
CONVECTION INITIATING OVR ERN NEB EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE SFC               
LOW AND ASSOCIATED DRYLINE/FNT QUICKLY MOVE ACRS THE AREA THIS                  
AFTERNOON...THUS CONSIDERATIONS FOR SVR WX AND HIGH WINDS. AHEAD                
OF THE LOW THERE SHOULD BE STRONG MIXING AND BEHIND THE LOW STRONG              
NW WINDS. DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEAST NEB FOR                
MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH THE THOUGHT THAT THE DAY                   
SHIFT COULD EVALUATE HOW MIXING CONDITIONS WERE EVOLVING AND ADD                
TO OR TRIM AS NECESSARY. DUE TO THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND STRONG                  
WIND SHEAR...ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY IS MODEST...COULD SEE STRONG              
TO SEVERE STORMS IN ERN NEB AND SW IA.                                          
CLOUDCOVER AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE A CHALLENGE WITH ONGOING                    
PRECIPITATION NORTH AND HOW MUCH WARM AIR WORKS INTO THE SOUTH                  
BEFORE THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TODAY. HAVE A RANGE OF HIGHS FM           
THE UPR 60S N TODAY TO THE LOWER 80S SE AND ALSO HAVE HIGH CHC OF               
TSRA N TODAY WITH A CHC S. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING EVENING                  
SHOWERS NORTHEAST...OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEARING AND DIMINISHING NW                
WINDS OVERNIGHT.                                                                
MONDAY...HIGH PRES OVR THE PLAINS WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER AREA OF              
LOW PRES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS. A MID LEVEL TROF                 
WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES WILL ADVANCE ACRS THE NRN PLNS MON NIGHT              
AND THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY AFTER 06Z MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.                
THE MID LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OUT WITH DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT               
THRU WED NIGHT. THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SW AND MORE ACTIVE                        
THU...WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING FM SW TO NE IN THE                          
FLOW...WHILE THE MAIN TROF REMAINS OVR THE WRN U.S. THE CDFNT                   
PUSHES ACRS THE CWA SAT AND BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD                      
AGREEMENT WITH THIS. DID NOT MAKE ANY SIG CHGS TO THE EXTENDED AT               
THIS TIME...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE SOME TWEAKING OF POPS THU AND                  
INCREASING THE CHC FOR RAIN WITH THE FRONT SAT. MON THRU FRI                    
REMAIN MILD WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WE GO AT OR BELOW                   
NORMAL WITH THE FROPA SAT.                                                      
AVIATION...                                                                     
THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF A KOLU TO KOFK LINE WILL LIKELY IMPACT KOFK               
BTWN 07-09Z AND THEN AGAIN IN ADDITION WITH THE OTHER TAF SITES                 
AFTER 15Z. STRONG S SFC WINDS WL CONT OVR TAF SITES THRU THE EARLY              
MORNING HOURS WITH SPEEDS OF 20-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KTS.               
PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A COLD              
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND THE              
STRONG GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL BE REPLACED WITH GUSTY WEST                       
NORTHWEST UNTIL SUNSET.                                                         
CZ/JR                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ065>068-078-            
     088>093.                                                                   
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
446 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WILL FOCUS ON SHORT TERM CONCERNS WITH WX ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSE               
CLOSED MID TROPOSPHERIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND IF HEADLINES ARE NEEDED.        
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS HAD THE CLOSED MID TROPOSHPERIC LOW OVR NW              
CO WITH SOME SHORTWAVE TROF ENERGY LIFTING N INTO SD. THE TSRA ARE              
MOST ACTIVE ACRS SD...HOWEVER EXTEND SW ACRS PARTS OF NEB INTO NW               
KS...THE OK PNHLD...AND TO ERN NM. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEPER               
MOISTURE IS NOSING INTO SD AND EXTENDS S IN THE SAME AREA AS WHERE              
THE TSRA ARE. PER THE H7 ANALYSIS...THERE ARE ELEVATED STEEP LAPSE              
RATE ALONG WITH GOOD 0-3KM HELICITY ACRS NE NEB.                                
THE INTENSE MID LEVEL LOW OVER CO WILL TRACK ACROSS NEBRASKA TODAY              
AND INTO IOWA TONIGHT. AHEAD OF IT...THE NLGN1 PROFILER HAD H85                 
SW WINDS AT 45 KTS AND THE RWDN1/HVLK1 PROFILERS HAD 55KT LOW                   
LEVEL WINDS. SPC HAS THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR STORMS MAINLY OVR IA               
INTO MO AND ERN KS TODAY. THE BETTER THETA-E ADVECTION IS TO OUR                
EAST...HOWEVER STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE STILL FCST OVR THE ERN PART                
OF NEB INTO IA AT 18Z AND THE RUC IS SHOWING SOME INTENSE                       
CONVECTION INITIATING OVR ERN NEB EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE SFC               
LOW AND ASSOCIATED DRYLINE/FNT QUICKLY MOVE ACRS THE AREA THIS                  
AFTERNOON...THUS CONSIDERATIONS FOR SVR WX AND HIGH WINDS. AHEAD                
OF THE LOW THERE SHOULD BE STRONG MIXING AND BEHIND THE LOW STRONG              
NW WINDS. DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEAST NEB FOR                
MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH THE THOUGHT THAT THE DAY                   
SHIFT COULD EVALUATE HOW MIXING CONDITIONS WERE EVOLVING AND ADD                
TO OR TRIM AS NECESSARY. DUE TO THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND STRONG                  
WIND SHEAR...ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY IS MODEST...COULD SEE STRONG              
TO SEVERE STORMS IN ERN NEB AND SW IA.                                          
CLOUDCOVER AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE A CHALLENGE WITH ONGOING                    
PRECIPITATION NORTH AND HOW MUCH WARM AIR WORKS INTO THE SOUTH                  
BEFORE THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TODAY. HAVE A RANGE OF HIGHS FM           
THE UPR 60S N TODAY TO THE LOWER 80S SE AND ALSO HAVE HIGH CHC OF               
TSRA N TODAY WITH A CHC S. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING EVENING                  
SHOWERS NORTHEAST...OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEARING AND DIMINISHING NW                
WINDS OVERNIGHT.                                                                
MONDAY...HIGH PRES OVR THE PLAINS WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER AREA OF              
LOW PRES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS. A MID LEVEL TROF                 
WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES WILL ADVANCE ACRS THE NRN PLNS MON NIGHT              
AND THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY AFTER 06Z MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.                
THE MID LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OUT WITH DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT               
THRU WED NIGHT. THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SW AND MORE ACTIVE                        
THU...WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING FM SW TO NE IN THE                          
FLOW...WHILE THE MAIN TROF REMAINS OVR THE WRN U.S. THE CDFNT                   
PUSHES ACRS THE CWA SAT AND BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD                      
AGREEMENT WITH THIS. DID NOT MAKE ANY SIG CHGS TO THE EXTENDED AT               
THIS TIME...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE SOME TWEAKING OF POPS THU AND                  
INCREASING THE CHC FOR RAIN WITH THE FRONT SAT. MON THRU FRI                    
REMAIN MILD WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WE GO AT OR BELOW                   
NORMAL WITH THE FROPA SAT.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF A KOLU TO KOFK LINE WILL LIKELY IMPACT KOFK               
BTWN 07-09Z AND THEN AGAIN IN ADDITION WITH THE OTHER TAF SITES                 
AFTER 15Z. STRONG S SFC WINDS WL CONT OVR TAF SITES THRU THE EARLY              
MORNING HOURS WITH SPEEDS OF 20-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KTS.               
PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A COLD              
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND THE              
STRONG GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL BE REPLACED WITH GUSTY WEST                       
NORTHWEST UNTIL SUNSET.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON           
     FOR NEZ065>068-078-088>093.                                                
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ZAPOTOCNY/REESE                                                                 
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM                                         
938 PM MDT MON OCT 1 2007                                                       
.UPDATE...QUICK ZFP UPDATE TO ADJUST OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SLIGHTLY               
AND REMOVE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN. CLEARING OBSERVED JUST TO WEST OF             
KFMN...WITH BEST CONVECTION NOTED ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED                 
ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN UT. LOWER DEWPOINTS MAY NOT REACH NEW               
MEXICO UNTIL VERY LATE NIGHT OR TUESDAY.                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION 300 PM MDT MON OCT 1 2007...                                   
FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM CONCERN PCPN CHANCES...TEMPS              
AS WELL AS LOW CLOUD/FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARD DAYBREAK. HIGH PRESSURE             
TO THE EAST COUPLED WITH AN ADVANCING TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT              
BASIN HAS ALLOW ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO ADVECT THROUGH             
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SFC DEWPOINTS WERE RELATIVELY LOW EARLY THIS              
MORNING...HOWEVER SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IN COMBINATION WITH A TOP-DOWN             
EFFECT HAS ALLOWED VALUES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S ALONG             
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH 60S OVER THE ERN PLAINS. RUC40 ANALYSIS             
HAS A NOTABLY STRONG VORT MAX MOVING NE FROM THE UPPER GILA TOWARD              
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. ONLY A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE NOTED OVER              
NM ATTM AS BEST DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY ARE POSITIONED OVER NRN AZ             
ASSOCIATED WITH A 110KT+ UPPER LEVEL JET AS WELL AS THE ERN PLAINS              
WHERE A 345-350K THETA-E RIDGE AXIS IS LOCATED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS             
ARE POSSIBLE FROM TRAINING EFFECTS AND FROM STRONG CONVECTION THAT              
MAY DEVELOP. DECIDED TO TWEAK POP GRIDS TOWARD THE MET GUIDANCE FOR             
THE EVENING HOURS...WHICH INCLUDE THE LIKELY CATEGORY. TROUGH AXIS              
IS PROGGED TO ENTER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY MIDNIGHT...WHICH MAY             
INCREASE VERTICAL ASCENT AND PROVIDE THE FINAL THREAT FOR PCPN. THE             
GFS IS FASTER WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE...WHICH WOULD ALLOW CLEARING              
SKIES TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK OVER THE W. A LOW LEVEL INVERSION              
CAN BE EXPECTED DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING IF SKIES BECOME CLEAR IN             
THE WRN VALLEYS...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP.                   
LINGERING PCPN CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MID-MORNING ACROSS THE CWFA              
AS TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO DRAG             
A SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE ERN PLAINS LATE TUESDAY MORNING THRU             
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DRIER NW FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE              
TROUGH...WHICH MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES OVER THE NW PLATEAU AS WELL AS             
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. MOS GUIDANCE DIFFER ON MAX TEMPS...BUT SIDED             
WITH THE COOLER MET WHICH IS MORE PLAUSIBLE FOR EARLY OCTOBER. LESS             
ACTIVE FOR WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER MOST MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT SOME             
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SRN TIER OF NM. 850-500MB              
LAPSE RATES MAY BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO ALLOW AN ISOLATED STORM TO              
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WED/THU AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SOME             
OF THE ACTIVITY MAY BE ENHANCED WITH WEAK PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THE              
UPPER LEVEL W/SW FLOW. ANOTHER TROUGH IS ADVERTISED TO SWING ACROSS             
THE NRN ROCKIES LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. APPEARS TO BE A GLANCING HIT             
TO THE NRN ZONES...WITH BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.             
A SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE ERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY...            
WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME OF THE COLDEST READINGS SO FAR THIS SEASON             
ACROSS THE EAST. INHERITED TEMPS NEAR FREEZING WITHIN THE NE PLAINS             
LOOKS REASONABLE ATTM. DPORTER                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
FARMINGTON......................  46  72  41  79 /  50   5   0   0              
GALLUP..........................  39  74  35  78 /  60   5   0  10              
GRANTS..........................  40  74  38  78 /  80  10   0  10              
GLENWOOD........................  52  81  49  83 /  70  20  10  10              
CHAMA...........................  38  68  31  71 /  70  10   0   0              
LOS ALAMOS......................  44  70  39  74 /  80  10   0   0              
RED RIVER.......................  37  63  31  67 /  80  10   0   0              
TAOS............................  42  71  33  76 /  70  10   0   0              
SANTA FE........................  45  72  41  76 /  80  10   0   0              
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  46  74  43  78 /  80  10   0   0              
ESPANOLA........................  44  76  39  80 /  70  10   0   0              
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  52  75  53  80 /  80  10   0   5              
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  49  76  47  81 /  80  10   0   5              
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  50  74  51  79 /  80  10   0   0              
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  51  75  52  80 /  80  10   0   0              
SOCORRO.........................  51  79  51  83 /  80  20   0   5              
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  44  71  41  75 /  80  20   0   0              
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  46  74  40  77 /  80  20   0   5              
CARRIZOZO.......................  52  80  52  82 /  70  20   0   5              
RUIDOSO.........................  48  73  48  75 /  60  20   0  10              
RATON...........................  44  77  39  79 /  40   5   0   0              
LAS VEGAS.......................  46  74  42  78 /  70  10   0   0              
ROY.............................  52  78  49  79 /  60   5   0   0              
CLAYTON.........................  54  80  48  80 /  50   5   0   0              
SANTA ROSA......................  57  84  50  85 /  70  10   0   5              
TUCUMCARI.......................  59  86  52  84 /  70  10   0   0              
FORT SUMNER.....................  59  85  53  86 /  60  10   0   5              
CLOVIS..........................  58  84  57  84 /  40  10   0   0              
PORTALES........................  57  85  56  85 /  30  20   0   0              
ROSWELL.........................  61  88  59  88 /  30  10   0   0              
&&                                                                              
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
46                                                                              
</pre> nm                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM                                         
300 PM MDT MON OCT 1 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM CONCERN PCPN CHANCES...TEMPS              
AS WELL AS LOW CLOUD/FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARD DAYBREAK. HIGH PRESSURE             
TO THE EAST COUPLED WITH AN ADVANCING TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT              
BASIN HAS ALLOW ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO ADVECT THROUGH             
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SFC DEWPOINTS WERE RELATIVELY LOW EARLY THIS              
MORNING...HOWEVER SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IN COMBINATION WITH A TOP-DOWN             
EFFECT HAS ALLOWED VALUES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S ALONG             
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH 60S OVER THE ERN PLAINS. RUC40 ANALYSIS             
HAS A NOTABLY STRONG VORT MAX MOVING NE FROM THE UPPER GILA TOWARD              
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. ONLY A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE NOTED OVER              
NM ATTM AS BEST DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY ARE POSITIONED OVER NRN AZ             
ASSOCIATED WITH A 110KT+ UPPER LEVEL JET AS WELL AS THE ERN PLAINS              
WHERE A 345-350K THETA-E RIDGE AXIS IS LOCATED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS             
ARE POSSIBLE FROM TRAINING EFFECTS AND FROM STRONG CONVECTION THAT              
MAY DEVELOP. DECIDED TO TWEAK POP GRIDS TOWARD THE MET GUIDANCE FOR             
THE EVENING HOURS...WHICH INCLUDE THE LIKELY CATEGORY. TROUGH AXIS              
IS PROGGED TO ENTER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY MIDNIGHT...WHICH MAY             
INCREASE VERTICAL ASCENT AND PROVIDE THE FINAL THREAT FOR PCPN. THE             
GFS IS FASTER WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE...WHICH WOULD ALLOW CLEARING              
SKIES TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK OVER THE W. A LOW LEVEL INVERSION              
CAN BE EXPECTED DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING IF SKIES BECOME CLEAR IN             
THE WRN VALLEYS...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP.                   
LINGERING PCPN CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MID-MORNING ACROSS THE CWFA              
AS TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO DRAG             
A SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE ERN PLAINS LATE TUESDAY MORNING THRU             
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DRIER NW FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE              
TROUGH...WHICH MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES OVER THE NW PLATEAU AS WELL AS             
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. MOS GUIDANCE DIFFER ON MAX TEMPS...BUT SIDED             
WITH THE COOLER MET WHICH IS MORE PLAUSIBLE FOR EARLY OCTOBER. LESS             
ACTIVE FOR WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER MOST MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT SOME             
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SRN TIER OF NM. 850-500MB              
LAPSE RATES MAY BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO ALLOW AN ISOLATED STORM TO              
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WED/THU AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SOME             
OF THE ACTIVITY MAY BE ENHANCED WITH WEAK PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THE              
UPPER LEVEL W/SW FLOW. ANOTHER TROUGH IS ADVERTISED TO SWING ACROSS             
THE NRN ROCKIES LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. APPEARS TO BE A GLANCING HIT             
TO THE NRN ZONES...WITH BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.             
A SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE ERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY...            
WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME OF THE COLDEST READINGS SO FAR THIS SEASON             
ACROSS THE EAST. INHERITED TEMPS NEAR FREEZING WITHIN THE NE PLAINS             
LOOKS REASONABLE ATTM. DPORTER                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
FARMINGTON......................  46  72  41  79 /  50   5   0   0              
GALLUP..........................  39  74  35  78 /  60   5   0  10              
GRANTS..........................  40  74  38  78 /  80  10   0  10              
GLENWOOD........................  52  81  49  83 /  70  20  10  10              
CHAMA...........................  38  68  31  71 /  70  10   0   0              
LOS ALAMOS......................  44  70  39  74 /  80  10   0   0              
RED RIVER.......................  37  63  31  67 /  80  10   0   0              
TAOS............................  42  71  33  76 /  70  10   0   0              
SANTA FE........................  45  72  41  76 /  80  10   0   0              
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  46  74  43  78 /  80  10   0   0              
ESPANOLA........................  44  76  39  80 /  70  10   0   0              
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  52  75  53  80 /  80  10   0   5              
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  49  76  47  81 /  80  10   0   5              
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  50  74  51  79 /  80  10   0   0              
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  51  75  52  80 /  80  10   0   0              
SOCORRO.........................  51  79  51  83 /  80  20   0   5              
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  44  71  41  75 /  80  20   0   0              
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  46  74  40  77 /  80  20   0   5              
CARRIZOZO.......................  52  80  52  82 /  70  20   0   5              
RUIDOSO.........................  48  73  48  75 /  60  20   0  10              
RATON...........................  44  77  39  79 /  40   5   0   0              
LAS VEGAS.......................  46  74  42  78 /  70  10   0   0              
ROY.............................  52  78  49  79 /  60   5   0   0              
CLAYTON.........................  54  80  48  80 /  50   5   0   0              
SANTA ROSA......................  57  84  50  85 /  70  10   0   5              
TUCUMCARI.......................  59  86  52  84 /  70  10   0   0              
FORT SUMNER.....................  59  85  53  86 /  60  10   0   5              
CLOVIS..........................  58  84  57  84 /  40  10   0   0              
PORTALES........................  57  85  56  85 /  30  20   0   0              
ROSWELL.........................  61  88  59  88 /  30  10   0   0              
&&                                                                              
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
46                                                                              
</pre> nm                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
1002 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST              
AND POPS/WX. WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SE FA SHOULD BE NE OF FA BY           
18Z. 12Z RUC/NAM SHOW ASSOCIATED WEAK 700MB LOW MOVING TO THE NE                
AND THROUGH BY 18Z. THUS...THINK WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE SE               
FA WILL BE GONE BY AFTERNOON. MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL PASS SOUTH OF                 
THE FA THIS AFTERNOON...AND MAY SPREAD SOME SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE              
FAR SE FA...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD. WILL LOWER POPS FOR THIS                    
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD SHOW MINIMAL RECOVERY WITH COLD AIR              
ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER A MAJORITY OF THE DAY. CURRENT VALUES                 
REASONABLE AND WILL NOT CHANGE.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...JUST GOT SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUDS IN THE FCST AREA NOW.             
SLIM BAND OF MVFR CIGS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE INTO THE VALLEY                  
18Z-21Z TIME PERIOD AND THEN CLEAR OUT THEREAFTER.                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007/                         
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
INCOMING 08Z OBS SHOWS COLD FRONT NR A WINNIPEG-HALLOCK-GRAND                   
FORKS-MAYVILLE-LISBON LINE THEN TO JUST WEST OF ABERDEEN. MAIN                  
PCPN MAKER IS STRONG 500 MB VORT MOVING UP ON EAST SIDE OF UPPER                
LOW NOW IN COLORADO. THIS VORT WAS MOVING INTO SCNTRL SD AND WITH               
STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENCE NORTHEAST OF VORT MAX A LARGE AREA OF                   
CONVECTION CONTINUES. SVR THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL DUE TO LOW                     
MUCAPES OF ONLY AROUND 500-800 J/KG. BUT ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS.              
AS VORT MAX MOVES NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE 700-850 MB FLOW WILL TURN               
MORE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND THUS BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LIFTING A                
BIT MORE NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY AND COORD WITH WFO BISMARCK WOULD                
HAVE NRN EDGE OF MAIN RAIN NR A VALLEY CITY-HILLSBORO-RED LAKE                  
FALLS-BAUDETTE LINE THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS JUST NORTH OF               
COMPLEX PER BISMARCK RADARS....BUT RATHER SHARP CUTOFF EXPECTED.                
OVERALL THESE IDEAS FLOWS WELL FROM PAST MODELS RUNS. VORT WILL                 
QUICKLY MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL/NE MN BY 15Z...SO WOULD EXPECT A                
RATHER QUICK ENDING OF THE THE MAIN RAIN BY LATE MORNING IN ALL                 
BUT THE FAR ERN AREAS. THE SHOWER THREAT WILL END IN MY FAR ERN                 
FCST AREA BY 00Z AND IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS FCST.                     
TEMPS TODAY KIND OF TRICKY...AREA WEST OF FRONT IN DVL REGION JUST              
SEEING HIGH CLOUDS...BUT BAND OF STRATOCU DOES EXIST IN ERN MT/WRN              
ND INTO CANADA AND THIS IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS                   
MORNING AND THEN EXIT THIS AFTN. COLD ADVECTION IS STRONGEST ON                 
NAM AND A BIT WEAKER ON GFS. OVERALL...ATMOSPHERE WOULD SUPPORT                 
LOWER TO MID 60S TODAY... HIGHEST READINGS MAY ACTUALLY BE MORE                 
IN THE MORNING FAR ERN FCST AREA AS COLD FRONT NOT THRU PLACES                  
LIKE WADENA AND PKD TIL NR 18Z.                                                 
QUICK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO MOVE IN TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKY AND                 
THIS WILL LAST INTO MUCH OF MONDAY BEFORE NEXT FAST MOVING SHORT                
WAVE NOW ENTERING THE PAC NORTHWEST MOVES INTO THE CNTRL/NRN                    
PLAINS TUESDAY. WILL SPREAD LOW POPS FOR SHOWERS INTO ERN ND LATE               
MON NIGHT AND THEN SPREAD POPS INTO MN ON TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE                
SYSTEM QUICKLY EXISTS BY TUES EVE. MOST OF THE JUICE AND                        
INSTABILITY WITH THIS ONE TO OUR SOUTH SO JUST WENT WITH SHOWERS                
AS SHOWALTERS WELL ABV ZERO.                                                    
LONG TERM...                                                                    
LONG TERM DOES LOOK ACTIVE...AS ALL MODELS HAVE AGREED FOR PAST                 
FEW DAYS ON SIGNIFICANT 500 MB TROUGH/UPR LOW TO MOVE INTO THE                  
ROCKIES LATE WEEK AND THEN EAST INTO THE PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND.               
THIS WILL SPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE AREA. EXACT STRENGTH OF SFC LOW               
AND TIMING DETAILS HAVE VARIED FROM RUN TO RUN ON THE GFS AND                   
ECMWF SO ATTM NO NEED TO ALTER CURRENT EXTENDED POPS/WX/TEMPS. DID              
ADJUST SKY COVER ON SATURDAY AS SKY GRIDS HAD 30 PCT IN THERE FOR               
DVL REGION. THIS SEEMED LOW FOR STORM TO BE NEARBY SO UPPED THEM.               
COORD WITH BIS ON THIS. HPC SKY COVER GRIDS WHICH WERE USED CAN                 
BE TOO LOW AT TIMES.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TG                                                                              
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                       
837 PM EDT MON OCT 1 2007                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER                  
FOR MOST OF THE REST OF WEEK. A SERIES OF WEAKENING FRONTS WILL                 
APPROACH THE REGION...BUT LOOK TO MAINLY FALL APART BEFORE CAUSING              
ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR RAIN.                                               
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...                                      
POTENT SHORTWAVE OVR LOWER MICHIGAN ATTM WILL TRACK INTO UPSTATE                
NY OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE IS WORKING INTO DRIER AIR                  
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH PRES ALONG THE EAST COAST.                             
THEREFORE...WILL INCLUDE CHC OF SHWRS TONIGHT ONLY ACROSS THE NW                
MTNS. EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT MOIST SE FLOW AT LOW LVLS WILL                
LIKELY RESULT IN MARITIME STRATUS DECK DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. LATEST             
RUC BLYR RH SUGGESTS A SOLID LOW CLOUD DECK ALONG AND EAST OF MTNS              
BY 09Z. GFS/NAM DO SPIT OUT SOME VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIP /DZ/              
ON WINDWARD SIDE OF ALLEGHENIES. HOWEVER...MODEL DATA SUGGESTS                  
MOISTURE VERY SHALLOW...SO WILL LEAVE OUT DRIZZLE FOR NOW.                      
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...                      
PROBABLY MORE IN THE WAY OF LOW CLOUDS TO DEAL WITH STARTING THE                
DAY THAN WE HAVE HAD. AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES OFFSHORE...WE               
WILL STAY UNDER AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AND HAVE TO                
DEAL WITH THE CLOUDS AND MAYBE EVEN PATCHY LIGHT PRECIP TUESDAY.                
EXPECT SOME MEASURE OF BURNING OFF AND LIFTING AS THE DAY WEARS                 
ON...BUT LOWERING SUN ANGLES WILL BE LESS EFFICIENT AT THE PROCESS              
SO WE COULD TAKE WELL INTO LATE MORNING OR AFTERNOON BEFORE WE SEE              
ANY SIGNIFICANT BRIGHTENING. THE INCREASED CLOUD-COVER SHOULD WORK              
TO MAKE MOST AREAS A FEW DEG COOLER TOMORROW THAN TODAY.                        
AS FAR AS PRECIP IS CONCERNED...SHUD REMAIN LIGHT IF AT ALL. THE                
NW WILL BE VULNERABLE DUE TO THE APPROACH OF THE SHEARING OUT                   
UPPER SHORTWAVE. THE EASTERN AREAS BEING CLOSEST TO THE MARITIME                
FLOW WILL BE THE SECOND AREA OF CONCERN. EITHER WAY NOT ENUF RAIN               
TO MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN THE RECENT DRY SPELL.                                   
THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SERVE              
TO PROVIDE A MILDER NIGHT THAN THE LAST COUPLE...LOWS IN MOST                   
PLACES STAYING IN THE 50S.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...                                    
LARGE SCALE UPPER TROF OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A DOWNSTREAM UPPER             
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR                 
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THUS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO               
DOMINATE THE PATTERN OVER PA THROUGH MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK               
PERIOD...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL              
REMAIN TOUGH TO COME BY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. GUIDANCE IS                  
SUGGESTING THAT ENERGY WILL EJECT EAST FROM THE WEST COAST TROF                 
NEXT WEEKEND POSSIBLY BRINGING A COLD FRONT INTO PA AT THE                      
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.                                                         
SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SFC HIGH WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL         
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK. AT THE LEAST THIS                  
WILL SERVE TO INCREASE HUMIDITIES MAKING A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IF              
ANY SHORTWAVE ENERGY DOES MOVE ACROSS THE STATE. ADDITIONALLY...PERIODS         
OF LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE FROM UPSLOPE FLOW ESPECIALLY             
OVER THE SE HALF OF THE CWA. WHILE NOT TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT                   
PCPN...CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE CLOSER TO                   
SEASONAL NORMALS.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
MARITIME FLOW IS ALREADY MAKING ITS PRESENCE FELT WITH AN                       
INCREASING FIELD OF STRATOCU THAT IS WORKING WESTWARD FROM THE                  
COASTAL PLAIN. STILL MOST CEILINGS ARE VFR WITH CLOUD BASES                     
AVERAGING 3500-4500`...BUT THESE WILL GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT.                
EXPECT MVFR IN MOST AREAS BY LATE EVENING/MIDNIGHT WITH CONDITIONS              
LOWERING FURTHER TO IFR MAINLY IN THE FORM OF CEILINGS BELOW 1000`.             
FOG WILL PROB NOT BE AS EXTENSIVE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AS                  
CLOUD-COVER WILL RETARD THE BEST OF THE RAD COLLING.                            
WITH LOWER SUN ANGLES...CEILINGS WILL LIFT MORE SLOWLY TUESDAY                  
WITH VFR PROBABLY HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE MORNING OR AFTERNOON AT                
MOST TERMINALS.                                                                 
THIS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION ALL                     
WEEK...SO WE WILL AT LEAST BE DEALING WITH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY                  
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONDITIONS. NO WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIP               
PROSPECTS SEEN AT THIS TIME                                                     
NOTE...TWB026 AND TWB029 HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.                                
&&                                                                              
.CLIMATE...                                                                     
SEPTEMBER CLIMATE HIGHLIGHTS FOR MDT AND IPT...                                 
     MDT...                                                                     
THE MEAN TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH OF SEPT WAS 69.7...OR 3.5 DEG                
ABOVE NORMAL. THE TOTAL PRECIPITATION WAS 4.41 INCHES...OR 0.76                 
INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. A DAILY PRECIPITATION RECORD WAS BROKEN ON THE             
27TH.                                                                           
     IPT...                                                                     
THE MEAN TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH OF SEPT WAS 66.0...OR 2.9 DEG                
ABOVE NORMAL. THE TOTAL PRECIPITATION WAS 1.63 INCHES...OR 2.35 INCHES          
BELOW NORMAL.                                                                   
FOR ADDITIONAL CLIMATE INFORMATION FOR THE MONTH OF SEPT...PLEASE               
REFERENCE /CLMMDT/ AND /CLMIPT/.                                                
&&                                                                              
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...LACORTE                                                              
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD                                                          
SHORT TERM...LACORTE                                                            
LONG TERM...JUNG/GARTNER                                                        
AVIATION...LACORTE/MARTIN                                                       
CLIMATE...LACORTE                                                               
</pre> pa                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
1055 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SHOWERS WERE LEAVING THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA QUICKLY THIS MORNING                 
WHILE NEW SHOWER/TSRA DEVELOPMENT WAS COMING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN              
CWA IN CENTRAL SD. THESE SHOWERS/TSRAS WERE DEVELOPING NORTHEAST THIS           
MORNING AND MAY AFFECT THE AREA FROM KENNEBEC TO MILLER TO                      
REDFIELD TO BRITTON AND EAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST                 
MODELS ARE NOT BIG ON MORE MEASURABLE RAINFALL THROUGH THIS                     
AFTERNOON IN OUR CWA. AS THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE                 
AREA MOVE EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND                  
DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN BEHIND...IT DOES NOT LOOK VERY                
FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT INTO OUR EASTERN CWA.              
THUS...DECREASED POPS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA.                   
OTHERWISE...LOW CLOUDS WERE FORMING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA AND                  
SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. ALSO...BREEZY/WINDY                
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GOOD MIXING              
AND A GOOD SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. UPDATED AND MADE SOME                     
CHANGES.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT                                        
THE SHORT TERM IS FOCUSED ON ONGOING PRECIPITATION. THE MOST                    
DEVELOPED ACCORDING TO THE WSR-88D IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD                  
FRONT DRAPED THROUGH THIS AREA. AT 08Z THE FRONT IS JUST WEST OF                
AN KABR TO KPIR LINE AND MOVING EAST. AT THIS TIME THE NAM AND GFS              
ARE CLOSE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL H5 CLOSED LOW MOVING ALONG JUST                  
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE GFS IS JUST SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THIS UPPER               
FEATURE BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN THE FORECAST.                
CONVECTION IS NOTED BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE                   
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROUGH. THE 07Z RUC MODEL SHOWS H85 WIND OF                 
AROUND 45 KNOTS OVER OUR EASTERN AREA WITH THE NOSE OF A 60KT MAX               
MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. IT ALSO DEPICTS A NORTHWEST                 
JET IN NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA OF 43 KTS. BY 18Z THE H85 TROUGH               
AXIS IS MOVING OUT OF THE STATE TO THE EAST WITH THE H5 TROUGH                  
AXIS JUST WEST OF KABR. IN THE WEATHER GRIDS THE PRECIPITATION WAS              
TIMED TO THIS UPPER FEATURE AND ENDED BY AROUND 00Z. GFS IS                     
SHOWING MORE HANG BACK WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION LINGERING IN THE FAR           
EAST. NAM DOES NOT SHOW THIS. THE GFS IS SHOWING THE BEST H7 LIFT               
IN WESTERN MINNESOTA TO DECIDED TO END IT AT 00Z. TYPICALLY WE                  
WOULD BE SLOW TO CLEAR WITH LINGERING WRAP AROUND CLOUDS. IN THIS               
CASE THE MODELS AGREE ON A QUICKLY REBUILDING H5 RIDGE AXIS OVER                
THIS AREA WITH A SURFACE HIGH OVER COLORADO WITH A SURFACE RIDGE                
OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SO EXPECT CLOUDS TO BE PUSHED THROUGH                
QUICKER THAN USUAL. BY NOON MONDAY THE NEXT SURFACE TROUGH IS                   
FORMING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WITH A STRONG RETURN FLOW. THIS               
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.                                         
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT                                     
THIS PERIOD OPENS WITH THE NEST SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING                   
THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. UNLIKE THE CURRENT SYSTEM THE UPPER               
SUPPORT FOR THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE MUCH WEAKER AND THERE WILL                 
NOT BE AS MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. DID CARRY A MENTION OF RAIN               
SHOWERS TUESDAY WITH THIS FEATURE. THE CHANCE OF RAIN OR                        
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LARGELY BE EAST OF THIS AREA BY TUESDAY                      
AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL FLOW THEN GOES TO FAST WESTERLY UNTIL LATE               
THURSDAY WHEN SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS AN OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL                 
BRING A CHANCE TO THE EAST PART OF THE AREA.                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OUT OF THIS FORECAST AREA...AND ALL                
FOUR TAF LOCATIONS WILL BE CONTENDING WITH COOL AND BREEZY                      
NORTHWEST WINDS THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THE COOLER AIR ADVECTING              
INTO THE REGION IS GENERATING SCATTERED TO BROKEN MVFR CEILINGS                 
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA /THE EXCEPTION IS OCCASIONAL IFR MIXED                 
WITH THOSE MVFR CIGS AT KATY/. MOST OF THE CONVECTION FROM EARLIER              
THIS MORNING HAS VACATED TO MINNESOTA AND IOWA. HOWEVER...WSR-88D               
REFLECTIVITY SCANS ARE BEGINNING TO PIN-POINT NEW CONVECTION                    
DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE ISOLATED TO                 
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE                  
NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS AT THE KPIR TERMINAL...A HIGHER PROBABILITY                   
EXISTS FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE KATY                      
TERMINAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY               
THAT THE SCATTERED TO BROKEN MVFR CEILINGS WILL HOLD ON LONG                    
ENOUGH TO IMPACT THE KPIR...KABR...AND KATY WELL INTO THIS EVENING              
BEFORE GRADUAL DISSIPATION AND/OR MOVEMENT SOUTH AND EAST OUT OF                
THIS FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. AMENDMENTS TO FOLLOW ACCORDINGLY.                 
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...MOHR                                                                   
SHORT TERM...TMT                                                                
LONG TERM...KEEFE                                                               
AVIATION...DORN                                                                 
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
352 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT                                        
THE SHORT TERM IS FOCUSED ON ONGOING PRECIPITATION. THE MOST                    
DEVELOPED ACCORDING TO THE WSR-88D IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD                  
FRONT DRAPED THROUGH THIS AREA. AT 08Z THE FRONT IS JUST WEST OF                
AN KABR TO KPIR LINE AND MOVING EAST. AT THIS TIME THE NAM AND GFS              
ARE CLOSE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL H5 CLOSED LOW MOVING ALONG JUST                  
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE GFS IS JUST SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THIS UPPER               
FEATURE BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN THE FORECAST.                
CONVECTION IS NOTED BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE                   
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROUGH. THE 07Z RUC MODEL SHOWS H85 WIND OF                 
AROUND 45 KNOTS OVER OUR EASTERN AREA WITH THE NOSE OF A 60KT MAX               
MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. IT ALSO DEPICTS A NORTHWEST                 
JET IN NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA OF 43 KTS. BY 18Z THE H85 TROUGH               
AXIS IS MOVING OUT OF THE STATE TO THE EAST WITH THE H5 TROUGH                  
AXIS JUST WEST OF KABR. IN THE WEATHER GRIDS THE PRECIPITATION WAS              
TIMED TO THIS UPPER FEATURE AND ENDED BY AROUND 00Z. GFS IS                     
SHOWING MORE HANG BACK WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION LINGERING IN THE FAR           
EAST. NAM DOES NOT SHOW THIS. THE GFS IS SHOWING THE BEST H7 LIFT               
IN WESTERN MINNESOTA TO DECIDED TO END IT AT 00Z. TYPICALLY WE                  
WOULD BE SLOW TO CLEAR WITH LINGERING WRAP AROUND CLOUDS. IN THIS               
CASE THE MODELS AGREE ON A QUICKLY REBUILDING H5 RIDGE AXIS OVER                
THIS AREA WITH A SURFACE HIGH OVER COLORADO WITH A SURFACE RIDGE                
OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SO EXPECT CLOUDS TO BE PUSHED THROUGH                
QUICKER THAN USUAL. BY NOON MONDAY THE NEXT SURFACE TROUGH IS                   
FORMING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WITH A STRONG RETURN FLOW. THIS               
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.                                         
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT                                     
THIS PERIOD OPENS WITH THE NEST SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING                   
THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. UNLIKE THE CURRENT SYSTEM THE UPPER               
SUPPORT FOR THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE MUCH WEAKER AND THERE WILL                 
NOT BE AS MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. DID CARRY A MENTION OF RAIN               
SHOWERS TUESDAY WITH THIS FEATURE. THE CHANCE OF RAIN OR                        
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LARGELY BE EAST OF THIS AREA BY TUESDAY                      
AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL FLOW THEN GOES TO FAST WESTERLY UNTIL LATE               
THURSDAY WHEN SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS AN OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL                 
BRING A CHANCE TO THE EAST PART OF THE AREA.                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WSR-88D IS SHOWING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THIS AREA AND                   
MOVING WITH THE COLD FRONT. THIS CONVECTION WILL END IN THE WEST                
PART OF THE AREA BY AROUND NOON. SHOWERS AND SOME CONVECTION WILL               
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE                    
QUICKLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS WILL VISIBILITY. BY EVENING                    
EXPECT ENTIRE AREA TO BE VFR WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 12K FT AND                     
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...KEEFE                                                              
LONG TERM...KEEFE                                                               
AVIATION...KEEFE                                                                
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
952 AM CDT MON OCT 1 2007                                                       
.UPDATE...RUC IS ANALYZING AN ELONGATED CYCLONIC VORT MAX DRAPED                
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EXTENDING INTO SE TX. 12Z CRP SOUNDING               
HAS A PW OF APPROXIMATELY 2 AND A QUARTER INCHES WITH CONDITIONALLY             
UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A 700MB TEMP OF 8C. WITH A                   
MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS IN PLACE...A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE                     
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE...AND UPPER SUPPORT OVER THE REGION WITH                  
CONVECTION ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER THE INLAND SECTIONS...WENT                   
AHEAD AND KICKED UP FIRST PERIOD POPS AREAWIDE. OTHERWISE...THE                 
REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. UPDATED                  
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT MON OCT 1 2007/                          
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MID-LEVEL                                  
RIDGING/SYNOPTIC-SCALE SUBSIDENCE TAKES A FIRMER STANCE AS THE                  
TROPOSPHERIC COLUMN GRADUALLY DRIES(WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTS                
NAM/UKMET) THROUGH TUESDAY. UNFAVORABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 850HPA                
YESTERDAY BECOMES A MORE FAVORABLE SE/E FLOW TODAY WHEN PWATS ARE               
STILL FAVORABLY HIGH. HOWEVER...FEEL GUIDANCE POPS ARE TOO HIGH                 
GIVEN GENERALLY WEAK FORCING...SO WILL INDICATE 20-30% POPS. NO                 
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT/TUESDAY. MOIST GROUND/STABLE                  
BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORTS AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE INTERIOR DURING THE             
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. LITTLE TO NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS             
TEMPERATURE GRIDS.                                                              
AVIATION...MVFR VSBYS/CIGS WITH AREAS OF LIFR VSBYS/CIGS ARE                    
EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR UNTIL 14Z. OTHERWISE...SCT-BKN VFR CIGS            
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 02Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM                 
02Z-09Z. MVFR VSBYS/CIGS WITH AREAS OF LIFR VSBYS/CIGS WILL THEN                
RETURN ACROSS THE INTERIOR BETWEEN 09Z-12Z.                                     
MARINE...WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA WITH ONLY ISOLATED             
CONVECTION EXPECTED THIS MORNING.                                               
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN               
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS THE                
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND DRY AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION              
THRU THURSDAY. BUT THE GFS/UKMET/ECMWF SHOW THE TUTT LOW NEAR THE               
FLORIDA KEYS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MIGRATE WESTWARD ACROSS THE                
GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS. IT APPEARS THAT SOME             
TYPE OF HYBRID TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP OVER THE               
CENTRAL GULF BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. PREFER TO LEAN TOWARD THE                   
MORE CONSISTENT 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS POINT WHICH THE 12Z                  
UKMET WAS NOT TOO FAR OFF IN AGREEMENT WITH MOVING THIS UPPER LOW               
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TEXAS COAST BY FRIDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS                 
THE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR OVER THIS SYSTEM WEAKENING...SO SOME                      
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK TROPICAL SYSTEM COULD BE POSSIBLE BY THE END              
OF THE WEEK. WILL RAISE POPS TO 30/40 PERCENT FRIDAY THROUGH                    
SATURDAY. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE GFS                
WEAKENS IT BY FRIDAY WHILE THE NAM/CANADIAN MODELS SPIN IT UP INTO              
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY. THESE SEEM TO OUTLIERS                
AT THIS POINT. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING              
INTO THE ROCKIES BY FRIDAY THAT WILL HOPEFULLY USHER IN MORE FALL               
LIKE CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH TEXAS BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.                 
THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER MOVING THE UPPER TROUGH INTO THE PLAINS                 
THAN THE ECMWF AND THEREBY PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO SOUTH TEXAS BY              
SUNDAY MORNING. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF FOR NOW WITH THE              
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY             
WILL BE SUFFICIENT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT TO EXPECT A DECENT                   
CHANCE OF RAIN OVER SOUTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY.                                      
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
CORPUS CHRISTI    90  72  91  69  91  /  30  10  10  10  10                     
VICTORIA          90  68  91  67  91  /  40  10  10  10  10                     
LAREDO            96  74  97  74  97  /  40  10  10  10  10                     
ALICE             92  70  93  68  94  /  40  10  10  10  10                     
ROCKPORT          90  74  91  73  90  /  20  10  10  10  10                     
COTULLA           92  71  93  70  94  /  40  10  10  10  10                     
KINGSVILLE        91  71  92  68  92  /  30  10  10  10  10                     
NAVY CORPUS       89  76  90  74  89  /  30  10  10  10  10                     
&&                                                                              
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TM/95...UPDATE                                                                  
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX                                      
1250 AM CDT MON OCT 1 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
A WEAK FRONT IS STILL MOVING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PERMIAN                    
BASIN THIS MORNING. EXPECT MINOR WIND SHIFTS WITH THE PASSAGE                   
LATER THIS MORNING...BUT LIKELY NOT TOO NOTICEABLE WITH SURFACE                 
WINDS STAYING WELL BELOW 10KT.                                                  
HIGH CLOUD COVER IS PREDOMINANT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING.              
THE ONLY LOW CLOUDS ON THE SCOPE ARE CURRENTLY WELL TO THE                      
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE KSAT AREA. DO EXPECT THAT                 
LOWER CLOUDS WILL ADVECT TOWARDS THE AREA AND LIKELY BEGIN                      
AFFECTING THE EASTERN TAF SITES /KMAF & KFST/ BY DAYLIGHT AND                   
OTHERS SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. DO NOT EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY           
PROBLEMS...AS WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY UP JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY                 
POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENTS FROM OCCURRING. KMAF /MAY/ BE THE                    
EXCEPTION AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST CALM ENOUGH THROUGH              
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TO ALLOW SOME MINOR BR TO DEVELOP...SO                  
HAVE TEMPO/D IN 5SM VIS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007/                         
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FAST MOVING UPPER LOW LIFTING NEWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH                 
ASSOCD COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO S PLAINS. MEANWHILE PROMINENT MID                
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS ESTABLISHED ACRS W TX. NAM SUGGESTS COLD FRONT              
WILL NEAR NRN CWFA...BUT STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT MUCH FARTHER S AS SFC              
ANTICYCLONE TENDS TO REMAIN UNDERNEATH SLIGHTLY CONFLUENT NW MID                
LEVEL FLOW ACRS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. STRONG 3HR MSL PRESSURE                
RISES ERN CO/WRN KS SUGGEST COLD FRONT WILL BE FARTHER S. HAVE                  
OPTED TO INCORPORATE RUC INTO SHORT TERM PORTION TO REFLECT FRONT               
FARTHER S. AS FAR AS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL GOES...MTNS AND VICINITY              
WILL HAVE BEST CHANCE INTO EARLY EVENING DUE TO LOCATION OF                     
THETA-E RIDGE...POSSIBILITY OF SHRTWV/S FROM THE S...AND AS WRN                 
AREAS ARE FARTHER REMOVED FROM 5H RIDGE AXIS. ISOLD STRONG MULTI-               
CELL STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH 7H-5H LR/S NEAR 7 C/KM AND              
0-6KM SHEAR NEAR 20KTS. IF CONVECTION IS REALIZED ALONG BOUNDARY                
THEN IT MAY HAVE THE NEEDED PUSH TO MAKE IT INTO PB...OTHERWISE                 
WILL OPT TO KEEP WIND SHIFT N. WRT TO MORNING LOW TEMPS THEY HAVE               
BEEN TRENDING UPWARD OVER THE LAST 5 MORNINGS. PART OF THIS HAS                 
BEEN DUE TO WINDS STAYING UP OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCN WITH LLJ.                      
ALTHOUGH SFC DWPNTS WILL REMAIN UP (M60S) ACRS PB THE PW/S IN                   
GENERAL WILL DECREASE AND WINDS WILL BE LESS SO WILL GO SLIGHTLY                
COOLER THAN THIS MORNING...BUT MID TO UPPER 60S ARE STILL WELL                  
ABOVE NORMAL.                                                                   
BY MON P.M. MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BUCKLE ACRS THE GREAT BASIN AS                  
SHRTWV TROF MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH PATTERN SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE             
WITH AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE GETTING PUSHED E WITH WELL ESTABLISHED SW             
MID LEVEL FLOW ACRS CWFA. THIS SW MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ABLE TO TAP            
PACIFIC MSTR WITH DECENT MSTR FETCH E OF MID LEVEL TROF AXIS. SHRTWV            
TROF/S IN ADVANCE OF MAIN TROF AXIS WILL BE FAVORED W OF CWFA WHERE             
STRONGER SW MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE AND ATTP WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP               
BEST W MON. AS THIS SYSTEM PROGRESS E TUE THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL SHIFT         
E INTO THE PLAINS WITH THETA-E RIDGE OVERHEAD AND SUFFICIENT LIFT               
PROVIDE BY MID LEVEL TROF. NAM ALSO SUGGEST MODEST LOW LEVEL                    
CONVERGENCE WITH WEAK SFC LOW ACRS SE NM...COLD FRONT IN THE S                  
PLAINS...AND SFC TROF ACRS LOWER TRANS PECOS. CURRENT FCST HAS THIS             
TREND OF PUSHING HIER POPS E TUE...HOWEVER WILL INCREASE CENTRAL/N              
PB INTO SCT POPS. PROBABLY COOLER TUE WITH CLOUD COVER. PROGRESSIVE             
NATURE OF THIS TROF WILL FAVOR COLD FRONT PUSHING S THRU PB BY WED              
A.M. AND WILL TEND TOWARD DRY FCST N WITH ISOLD/SLGHT CHC POPS S.               
THUR SW FLOW AT 7H INCREASES TO AROUND 15KTS WITH WELL DEVELOPED LEE            
TROF. LOW LEVEL MSTR WILL LIKELY STILL HOLD THUR SO ISOLD POPS STILL            
WARRANTED IN THE HIER TERRAIN. DRY AIR BECOMES APPARENT IN THE MODEL            
DATA BY FRI P.M. WITH LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE SUGGESTING TEMPS COULD            
BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO SAT. MEANWHILE 7H WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO              
INCREASE INTO SAT WITH VERY DRY AIR MAKING EWD AT LEAST INTO SE NM              
PLAINS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SHARP            
5H TROF AXIS WILL PASS PUSHING COLD FRONT THRU...PROBABLY EARLY SUN.            
ATTP WILL INCREASE TEMPS SOME FRI/SAT PER 85H TEMPS AND NOTE COOLER             
WX FOR SUNDAY.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NM...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
13                                                                              
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX                                      
444 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FAST MOVING UPPER LOW LIFTING NEWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH                 
ASSOCD COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO S PLAINS. MEANWHILE PROMINENT MID                
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS ESTABLISHED ACRS W TX. NAM SUGGESTS COLD FRONT              
WILL NEAR NRN CWFA...BUT STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT MUCH FARTHER S AS SFC              
ANTICYCLONE TENDS TO REMAIN UNDERNEATH SLIGHTLY CONFLUENT NW MID                
LEVEL FLOW ACRS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. STRONG 3HR MSL PRESSURE                
RISES ERN CO/WRN KS SUGGEST COLD FRONT WILL BE FARTHER S. HAVE                  
OPTED TO INCORPORATE RUC INTO SHORT TERM PORTION TO REFLECT FRONT               
FARTHER S. AS FAR AS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL GOES...MTNS AND VICINITY              
WILL HAVE BEST CHANCE INTO EARLY EVENING DUE TO LOCATION OF                     
THETA-E RIDGE...POSSIBILITY OF SHRTWV/S FROM THE S...AND AS WRN                 
AREAS ARE FARTHER REMOVED FROM 5H RIDGE AXIS. ISOLD STRONG MULTI-               
CELL STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH 7H-5H LR/S NEAR 7 C/KM AND              
0-6KM SHEAR NEAR 20KTS. IF CONVECTION IS REALIZED ALONG BOUNDARY                
THEN IT MAY HAVE THE NEEDED PUSH TO MAKE IT INTO PB...OTHERWISE                 
WILL OPT TO KEEP WIND SHIFT N. WRT TO MORNING LOW TEMPS THEY HAVE               
BEEN TRENDING UPWARD OVER THE LAST 5 MORNINGS. PART OF THIS HAS                 
BEEN DUE TO WINDS STAYING UP OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCN WITH LLJ.                      
ALTHOUGH SFC DWPNTS WILL REMAIN UP (M60S) ACRS PB THE PW/S IN                   
GENERAL WILL DECREASE AND WINDS WILL BE LESS SO WILL GO SLIGHTLY                
COOLER THAN THIS MORNING...BUT MID TO UPPER 60S ARE STILL WELL                  
ABOVE NORMAL.                                                                   
BY MON P.M. MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BUCKLE ACRS THE GREAT BASIN AS                  
SHRTWV TROF MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH PATTERN SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE             
WITH AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE GETTING PUSHED E WITH WELL ESTABLISHED SW             
MID LEVEL FLOW ACRS CWFA. THIS SW MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ABLE TO TAP            
PACIFIC MSTR WITH DECENT MSTR FETCH E OF MID LEVEL TROF AXIS. SHRTWV            
TROF/S IN ADVANCE OF MAIN TROF AXIS WILL BE FAVORED W OF CWFA WHERE             
STRONGER SW MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE AND ATTP WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP               
BEST W MON. AS THIS SYSTEM PROGRESS E TUE THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL SHIFT         
E INTO THE PLAINS WITH THETA-E RIDGE OVERHEAD AND SUFFICIENT LIFT               
PROVIDE BY MID LEVEL TROF. NAM ALSO SUGGEST MODEST LOW LEVEL                    
CONVERGENCE WITH WEAK SFC LOW ACRS SE NM...COLD FRONT IN THE S                  
PLAINS...AND SFC TROF ACRS LOWER TRANS PECOS. CURRENT FCST HAS THIS             
TREND OF PUSHING HIER POPS E TUE...HOWEVER WILL INCREASE CENTRAL/N              
PB INTO SCT POPS. PROBABLY COOLER TUE WITH CLOUD COVER. PROGRESSIVE             
NATURE OF THIS TROF WILL FAVOR COLD FRONT PUSHING S THRU PB BY WED              
A.M. AND WILL TEND TOWARD DRY FCST N WITH ISOLD/SLGHT CHC POPS S.               
THUR SW FLOW AT 7H INCREASES TO AROUND 15KTS WITH WELL DEVELOPED LEE            
TROF. LOW LEVEL MSTR WILL LIKELY STILL HOLD THUR SO ISOLD POPS STILL            
WARRANTED IN THE HIER TERRAIN. DRY AIR BECOMES APPARENT IN THE MODEL            
DATA BY FRI P.M. WITH LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE SUGGESTING TEMPS COULD            
BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO SAT. MEANWHILE 7H WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO              
INCREASE INTO SAT WITH VERY DRY AIR MAKING EWD AT LEAST INTO SE NM              
PLAINS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SHARP            
5H TROF AXIS WILL PASS PUSHING COLD FRONT THRU...PROBABLY EARLY SUN.            
ATTP WILL INCREASE TEMPS SOME FRI/SAT PER 85H TEMPS AND NOTE COOLER             
WX FOR SUNDAY.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
BIG SPRING TX              69  90  69  86  /  10  10  20  30                    
CARLSBAD NM                63  86  65  89  /  20  20  20  30                    
DRYDEN TX                  69  89  71  94  /  20  10  20  20                    
FORT STOCKTON TX           68  90  71  88  /  20  10  20  30                    
GUADALUPE PASS TX          62  83  62  82  /  20  30  20  20                    
HOBBS NM                   66  87  68  86  /  20  20  20  30                    
MARFA TX                   57  82  59  82  /  20  20  20  20                    
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    67  90  68  87  /  10  10  20  30                    
ODESSA TX                  68  91  69  87  /  20  20  20  30                    
WINK TX                    69  95  71  90  /  20  20  20  30                    
&&                                                                              
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NM...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
1038 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007                                                     
.SHORT TERM...CONVECTION BEING SUPPRESSED ACROSS CWFA THIS                      
MORNING...PERHAPS DUE TO A MIN VORT LOBE SHOWING UP ON RECENT RUC               
RUNS. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS INLAND TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS                             
SUPPRESSION...ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON HEATING MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO                     
TRIGGER SCATTERED SEABREEZE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON.                            
HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK REASONABLE DESPITE MORE SUN THAN                   
EXPECTED...SO WILL RETAIN PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE GRIDS.                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007/                         
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...TROPICAL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY               
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND ONLY SLOWLY DECREASE MONDAY(PER               
THE FAVORED SLOWER UKMET/NAM SOLUTIONS). SOME DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL            
EXIST TODAY...OTHERWISE COASTAL CONVERGENCE WILL TRANSITION TO SEA              
BREEZE BOUNDARY FORCING BOTH DAYS. HIGH-END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS               
TODAY WILL LOWER TO MOSTLY CHANCE POPS TONIGHT/MONDAY. SHOWED A                 
TRANSITION TO LOWER POPS EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE EAST AS THE SEA                
BREEZE BOUNDARY PENETRATES INLAND FASTER THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT                 
COASTAL WATERSPOUTS TO BE WEAKER TODAY AS A WELL-DEFINED COASTAL                
TROUGH WILL NOT BE PRESENT. JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE PREVIOUS              
TEMPERATURE GRIDS.                                                              
AVIATION...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH LOCALIZED IFR CIGS/VSBYS CAN BE                 
EXPECTED UNTIL 15Z...THEN VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EARLY                  
EVENING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION WILL RESULT IN LOW-END                
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS INTO THE EARLY EVENING.                                         
MARINE...SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE MORNING HOURS WILL                     
TRANSITION TO ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING                  
HOURS. SOME MARGINAL SCEC CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE                    
NEARSHORE/OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH MONDAY.                                       
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE MID LEVEL                       
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES THIS MORNING WILL                  
SLOWLY TRANSLATE TO THE SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE                       
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE SOUTH TEXAS REGION                        
ON TUESDAY WITH MUCH DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST INVADING                      
THE COASTAL BEND. THIS RIDGE AXIS AND DRIER AIR WILL BE IN                      
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN FROM TUESDAY UNTIL THURSDAY.                     
REMOVED MENTION OF DIURNAL SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE                          
COASTAL PLAINS DURING THIS PERIOD AND LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPS.                    
THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET SHOW A TUTT LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE FLORIDA                 
STRAITS BY MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE WEST ACROSS THE                 
GULF OF MEXICO AND BE IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO OFF THE LOWER               
TEXAS COAST BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE GFS IS A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED             
THAN THE ECMWF BY FRIDAY AND FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS                   
SOLUTION. WILL INTRODUCE POPS ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT THURSDAY                
NIGHT...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS FRIDAY.                  
INCREASED POPS TO LOW END CHANCE BY SATURDAY. WILL BE WATCHING                  
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A BIT BETTER                        
ORGANIZED WITH RESPECT TO A TROPICAL NATURE...ECMWF SHOWS THE                   
UPPER LEVEL SHEAR WEAKENING BY THE TIME IT MOVES INTO THE                       
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. TIME WILL TELL.                                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
CORPUS CHRISTI    86  77  88  72  90  /  70  30  30  10  10                     
VICTORIA          87  74  90  68  90  /  50  20  20  10  10                     
LAREDO            91  76  92  74  97  /  40  40  40  20  10                     
ALICE             88  75  90  70  92  /  40  30  40  10  10                     
ROCKPORT          86  79  88  74  89  /  70  30  30  10  10                     
COTULLA           89  74  90  71  94  /  40  50  40  20  10                     
KINGSVILLE        87  76  89  71  91  /  60  30  40  10  10                     
NAVY CORPUS       86  80  87  76  88  /  70  30  30  10  10                     
&&                                                                              
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JV/71...SHORT TERM                                                              
MG/88...LONG TERM                                                               
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
1102 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE                       
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS POTENT MID-LEVEL WAVE                 
CURRENTLY OVER SWRN NEB MOVES EAST THROUGH IOWA. STRONG CONVECTION              
HAS DEVELOPED DOWNSTREAM OF THIS WAVE WHERE STRONG LOW LEVEL                    
MOIST/WARM ADVECTION ON POTENT 50-60KT 850MB WIND MAXIMUM ON                    
KS/NEB PROFILERS CONTINUES. THIS CONVECTION SHOWING HINTS OF PRODUCING          
SMALL HAIL OVER NRN IA/SRN MN PER KARX/KDMX RADAR IMAGERY. THIS                 
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP...LARGELY IN ENVIRONMENT LACKING DEEP                
INSTABILITY /MUCAPE LESS THAN 500 J/KG/ BUT INCREASING                          
THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC FORCING AS WAVE CONTINUES TO APPROACH.                  
DON/T EXPECT ANYTHING SEVERE FOR THE MOST PART WITH THIS INITIAL                
ACTIVITY OWING TO OVERALL LACK OF INSTABILITY AND GRADUAL                       
WEAKENING OF LOW LEVEL JET VIA MIXING. MAY BE A ROGUE DIME TO                   
NICKEL SIZED HAIL REPORT WITH THE STRONGEST CORES...HOWEVER.                    
LATEST 30.12 RUC/WRF...AS WELL AS SPC/NSSL WRF RUNS...ALL AGREE                 
THAT MORE ROBUST DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR BEHIND/SOUTH OF THIS INITIAL            
ACTIVITY OVER WRN/CNTL IA IN THE MID TO LATE AFTN HOURS AS STRONG               
MID/UPPER LEVEL KINEMATICS AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW AND COLD                   
FRONT MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS...WHICH WILL                
FEATURE MLCAPES FROM 500 TO 1500 J/KG /MORE OVER IOWA/. NARROW                  
WINDOW /ESPECIALLY IN NAM-WRF/ EXISTS IN 20Z-02Z TIMEFRAME FOR THE              
STRONGEST WINDS IN THE CYCLONICALLY CURVED MID/UPPER JET TO                     
OVERSPREAD THE FRONTAL ZONE SUPPORTING SUPERCELLULAR SHEAR IN PEAK              
HEATING. THUS...EXPECT LINEAR STORM MODE /COLD FRONT/ TO FEATURE                
SOME HIGHER END ORGANIZATION ESPECIALLY NEAR/NORTHEAST OF SFC LOW               
WHICH WILL MOVE ACRS IOWA. RUC A TAD MORE SOUTH...SUGGESTING                    
HIGHER THREAT FOR TORNADIC POTENTIAL STAYS SOUTH OF FORECAST                    
AREA...BUT REGARDLESS...STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL NEED TO              
BE WATCHED CLOSELY. SREF SEVERE STORM PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN VERY              
CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING BIGGEST FLARE-UP OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL                
TAKE PLACE IN I-35 CORRIDOR IN MID/LATE AFTN...AND DECREASE MARKEDLY            
AS CINH INCREASES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. FORECAST IN GREAT                  
SHAPE. ADDED SEVERE WORDING IN NERN IA WHERE BUST JUXTAPOSITION OF              
SHEAR/INSTABILITY IS PROGGED. WILL UPDATE HAZARDOUS WEATHER                     
OUTLOOK WITH LATEST THOUGHTS BETWEEN 18-20Z.                                    
BINAU                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007/                         
SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT                                              
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLE OF                    
ANOMALOUSLY VIGOROUS SYSTEMS TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA IN THE                 
SHORT TERM. DETAILS OF CONCERN WERE WITH RAIN CHANCES TODAY AND                 
TONIGHT...ALONG WITH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.           
RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WERE ALSO A CONCERN.                    
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE UPPER               
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS THE             
PLAINS. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT EVIDENT             
ON 40-50KT 850MB JET...WHICH WAS FOCUSED FROM NEBRASKA/KANSAS INTO              
NORTHWEST IOWA AND MN. CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF PLAINS COLD              
FRONT PRODUCING CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FORECAST                
AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED VIGOROUS MID LEVEL CIRCULATION                 
TRACKING OUT INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF WYOMING/COLORADO.                          
00Z 30SEP07 MODELS HAD EXCELLENT CLUSTERING OF UPPER LEVEL AND                  
SURFACE FEATURES TO IMPACT THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY AND               
TONIGHT...AS WELL AS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AS WAS THE CASE                
IN PREVIOUS PROBABILISTIC DATA SUITE...LATEST SREF INDICATED 80-100             
PERCENT PROBABILITIES OF QPF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SIMILAR VALUES                 
WERE ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A                
RESULT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT           
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN BOTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TIME FRAMES.             
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...FIRST OF TWO RATHER VIGOROUS SYSTEMS IMPACTS THE           
AREA. EXCELLENT CONSENSUS WITHIN DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC DATA           
SUITE SUPPORTS HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS OF CURRENT DATA              
BASE. STRONG DYNAMICS MANIFESTED BY 500-300MB PV-ADVECTION...ALONG              
WITH DEEP LAYERED Q-G CONVERGENCE. RAIN PROBABILITIES IN CURRENT DATA           
BASE SUPPORTED WELL BY FORCING PARAMETERS...WITH CATEGORICAL VALUES             
GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON.               
IN ADDITION...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH 300MB JET                  
SHOULD AID IN ENHANCEMENT OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND THUS DEFORMATION            
AXIS LINGERS THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE                  
FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...INCREASED RAIN PROBABILITIES THIS                    
EVENING AREAWIDE...THEN IN THE AFOREMENTIONED LOCATIONS BASED ON                
CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS NORTHERN WI.                       
BOTH GFS AND NAM/WRF CONTINUED TO INDICATE A NARROW RIBBON OF                   
INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPE VALUES OF AS MUCH AS 500-1000 J/KG ARCING               
INTO PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS             
COMBINED WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OF 40-50KTS SHOULD FAVOR A FAST MOVING                
LINE OF STRONG CONVECTION PIVOTING NORTHEASTWARD. DUE TO STRONG                 
WIND SHEAR...ENVIRONMENT FAVORS LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS WITH ANY                  
DISCRETE CELLS. PLEASE REFERENCE 06Z 30SEP07 SPC DAY ONE OUTLOOK...             
ALONG WITH LOCAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.             
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR               
YET ANOTHER WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG              
FORCING SIGNALS SUPPORTED THIS AS EVIDENCED BY DEEP LAYERED Q-G                 
CONVERGENCE...AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THETA-E               
CONVERGENCE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. RAIN PROBABILITIES WERE              
INCREASED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY DAY SHIFT AND THIS LOOKED GOOD.           
FURTHER INCREASE WILL PROBABLY BE WARRANTED WITH SUBSEQUENT                     
FORECASTS BASED ON GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS AND STRONG FORCING SIGNALS.             
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY                                          
AFTER THE ACTIVE WEATHER OF LATE SETTLES DOWN AT MIDWEEK...                     
DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE WAVE           
SHOULD IMPACT THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE END OF THE                
WEEK. FORECAST CONFIDENCE WAS GROWING...AS BOTH MODELS WERE GAINING             
GOOD CONSENSUS ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND                   
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT. AT THIS TIME...CURRENT DATA BASE APPEARS              
REASONABLE WITH RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. NO CHANGES WERE              
MADE TO THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK.                                                   
AVIATION...                                                                     
AN AREA OF RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ON THE                
NOSE OF A 45 KNOT 850 MB JET ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IOWA AND SOUTH                
CENTRAL MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. NONE OF THE SEPTEMBER 30TH                
00Z MODELS PICKED UP ON THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. CORFIDI VECTORS                 
SUGGESTS THAT THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS PARTS OF                 
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING. AS A                 
RESULT...I JUST RECENTLY ADDED SHOWERS TO THE KRST TAF.                         
A VIGOROUS NEGATIVELY SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER             
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL             
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND               
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY             
BE SOME SEVERE WEATHER CONVECTION BETWEEN SEPTEMBER 30TH 21Z AND                
OCTOBER 1ST 03Z. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS LOOK TO BE DAMAGING            
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A FEW TORNADOES ACROSS               
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA WHERE THE              
WINDS ARE ABLE TO BACK AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW.                  
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
SHORT/LONG TERM...THOMPSON                                                      
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
320 AM CDT TUE OCT 2 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE NEAR TERM IS THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER              
STRONGLY FORCED FRONTAL SYSTEM TODAY. STRONG WAA AND MOISTURE                   
TRANSPORT IS UNDERWAY EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND            
WESTERN IOWA. CURRENT LAPS SOUNDINGS ACROSS SW IA INDICATE PLENTY OF            
DRY AIR TO OVERCOME BELOW ABOUT 15K FEET...BUT THE NAM/GFS/RUC ALL              
QUICKLY SATURATE AND GENERATE PRECIP ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS AFTER              
12Z. ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT A LIMITED HAIL THREAT THIS              
MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE FAR SOUTHEAST REMAINS OUTLOOKED IN SLIGHT              
RISK. SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL AGAIN BE DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF                     
AFTERNOON INSOLATION. THE NAM MAY BE OVERDONE AT 1500-2000 J/KG                 
CAPE...BUT GIVEN ENOUGH AFTERNOON HEATING...LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND LOW             
LCL`S WOULD SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT IN ADDITION TO STRAIGHT LINE               
WINDS.                                                                          
CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY HEAD EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 00Z                
THIS EVENING. ZONAL UPPER FLOW WILL THEN GRADUALLY RETURN TO                    
SOUTHWESTERLY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WHEN AFTERNOON                       
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WILL                 
CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS...ESPECIALLY NORTH HALF THURSDAY NIGHT AS            
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE STATE. THE MOST FAVORABLE MOISTURE               
CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD STAY JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF                
IOWA...WHERE THE NEW DAY 3 SLIGHT RISK IS OUTLOOKED. AS WE LOOK                 
AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND...THE GFS CONTINUES TO HAVE MAJOR CONSISTENCY              
ISSUES. THE 01/12Z RUN HAD THE H5 LOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z             
TUESDAY...AND THE 02/00Z RUN NOW HAS IT IN ONTARIO AT THE SAME TIME.            
THE ECMWF BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN IOWA BY SATURDAY                     
EVENING...AND THEN MAINTAINS A CUTOFF LOW NEAR IOWA ALL THE WAY INTO            
NEXT TUESDAY. WITH SUCH A MUDDLED PICTURE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...NO              
SENSE IN MAKING ANY MAJOR CHANGES RIGHT NOW AND WILL KEEP POPS GOING            
FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. DAY SHIFT CAN RE-EVALUATE AND ADJUST WHERE            
NECESSARY.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...02/06Z                                                              
LIGHT RADAR RETURNS ACROSS NEBRASKA INDICATE MID-LEVEL SATURATION IS            
PROGRESSING AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS              
WITH STRONG SW FLOW AND APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. WILL MENTION             
A 6 HR WINDOW OF CONVECTION FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY...BEGINNING AT              
15Z AT KFOD...AND STAGGERED TO 18Z AT KOTM.                                     
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LONG TERM...KINNEY                                                              
SHORT TERM...DONAVON                                                            
AVIATION...SMALL                                                                
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
431 AM EDT TUE OCT 2 2007                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
07Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING            
COVERING MUCH OF THE EAST HALF OF THE U.S....EXCLUDING AN UPPER LOW             
OVER LAKE ERIE...AND A TROUGH STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL MONTANA INTO              
NORTHERN UTAH. QUIET WEATHER CURRENTLY EXISTS ACROSS THE CWA WITH               
THE AREA BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH...WITH THE ONLY ISSUES                
BEING IN THE AVIATION DEPARTMENT WITH LOW CLOUDS AND VISIBILITIES               
STUCK UNDERNEATH A RADIATIONAL AND COLD FRONTAL INVERSION (SEE 00Z              
APX SOUNDING). SO FAR...THE ONLY PLACES AROUND DENSE FOG ADVISORY               
CRITERIA ARE ESC...MNM...ISQ AND ERY PER OBS. THESE LOW CLOUDS                  
EXTEND INTO EASTERN MN...AND HAVE HELPED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES AND               
DEWPOINTS UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. TO THE WEST...LOW PRESSURE              
HAS DEVELOPED NEAR PIERRE SOUTH DAKOTA DUE TO DOWNSLOPING FLOW OFF              
THE ROCKIES AND HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TROUGH.            
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PCPN IS OCCURRING ALONG THE LOWS                      
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...WITH MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS PRESENT. THIS IS DUE            
TO A LOT OF LOW AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR AS SEEN ON THE 00Z NORTH                  
PLATTE NEBRASKA SOUNDING. ANY PCPN AT THE MOMENT WITH THE ENTIRE                
TROUGH IS FARTHER WEST OVER UTAH AND COLORADO. ALTHOUGH THE PCPN IS             
FAIRLY MINIMAL...THE SYSTEM IS PRODUCING PLENTY OF WIND...WITH                  
PROFILERS ACROSS NEBRASKA AND WESTERN KANSAS IN THE 40-50KT RANGE AT            
850MB. THESE WINDS...MOSTLY FROM THE SSW...ARE TRANSPORTING 850MB               
DEWPOINTS OF AROUND 10C NORTHWARD FROM WEST TEXAS AND SW KANSAS PER             
00Z RAOBS.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODELS (GFS/NAM/UKMET/CANADIAN) ARE ALL IN GOOD             
AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE PROGRESSION AND TIMING OF THE UPPER               
LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVING EASTWARD. THEY ALL HAVE TRENDED              
TOWARDS THE SLOWER IDEA PRESENTED BY THE 00Z NAM/UKMET SHOWN                    
YESTERDAY. BY 00Z WED...THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BE OVER CENTRAL                
MINNESOTA WITH THE COLD FRONT IN WESTERN WI. BY 12Z WED...BOTH THE              
TROUGH AND FRONT ARE PROGGED TO BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN ONTARIO AND             
LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH STRONG DRYING COMING IN BEHIND IT. UNTIL THAT             
OCCURS...THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN AHEAD OF               
THE TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD BRING UP A NARROW ZONE OF 850MB THETA-E               
ADVECTION INTO THE CWA. WITHIN THIS ZONE...SHOWERS AND SOME                     
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS HEIGHT FALLS COME ACROSS               
FROM THE UPPER TROUGH. IT APPEARS THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL TAKE PLACE              
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER MN/WI AND PERHAPS THE FAR WESTERN                     
U.P....THEN GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.            
BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE TONIGHT...THOUGH...GIVEN THE                
SLOWER MOTION PROGGED WITH THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL             
HAVE A HARD TIME WARMING WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER...BUT SOUTHERLY               
WINDS SHOULD BE ABLE TO GIVE AT LEAST A 5-10 DEGREE RISE. BUMPED UP             
LOWS TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN THE EAST DUE TO THE SLOWER MOTION OF             
THE FRONT.                                                                      
WED THROUGH THU...DRY AIR ADVECTION THAT OCCURRED BEHIND TONIGHTS               
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR QUIET WEATHER DURING THIS                 
PERIOD. AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE EAST PACIFIC IS PROGGED              
TO DIG DOWN INTO THE WEST COAST...CAUSING HEIGHT RISES DOWNSTREAM.              
THESE HEIGHT RISES WILL PROMPT WARM ADVECTION OVER THE                          
AREA...HOWEVER GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS PRESENT...VERY LITTLE CLOUD                
COVER IS EXPECTED. ONLY ACROSS ISLE ROYALE AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR            
WED NIGHT AND THU IS THERE EXPECTED TO BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY               
SKIES...WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS PROGGED. THE WARM                
ADVECTION WILL ALLOW 850MB TEMPS TO CLIMB TO 8C AT 18Z WED AND TO               
14C BY 18Z THU. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX UP TO 850MB ON WED...GIVEN             
THE COOLER CONDITIONS...AND THUS ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER 60S             
TO LOW 70S. ON THU...GIVEN THE SUN ANGLE...IT MAY BE HARD TO REACH              
850MB...AND THUS HAVE ONLY WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.               
THU NIGHT AND FRI...WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION IS PROGGED TO                  
INCREASE ACROSS THE PLAINS...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN               
GREAT LAKES AS THE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST CONTINUES TO DIG                  
TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS. LEFT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR AFTER 06Z              
THU NIGHT FOR THE FAR WESTERN U.P. AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE              
ENOUGH MOISTENING OF THE LOW AND MID LEVELS TAKE PLACE. CONDITIONS              
LOOK BETTER FOR PCPN DEVELOPING ON FRI WITH CONTINUED MOISTENING AND            
THE PROSPECTS OF A SHRTWV OR SHRTWVS CROSSING...AS INDICATED BY THE             
00Z ECMWF/GFS. TO GIVE AN IDEA OF THE MOISTENING...850MB DEWPOINTS              
AT IMT CLIMB FROM -4C AT 00Z FRI TO 12C AT 00Z SAT. HAVE INCREASED              
POPS TO 40 FOR FRI.                                                             
FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST CAN HAVE A LOT              
OF BUST POTENTIAL...WITH UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT HOW THE WESTERN TROUGH             
EVOLVES. IT DOES SEEM LIKE...THOUGH...THAT MODELS ARE FOCUSING ONTO             
MORE RIDGING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING THE            
00Z UKMET WHICH IS VERY PROGRESSIVE WITH THE WESTERN TROUGH. THE                
SCENARIO OF MORE RIDGING...WITH A POSSIBLE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE            
AREA SEEMS MORE LIKELY. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...WARM AND                
HUMID CONDITIONS FOR OCTOBER ARE EXPECTED. NORTH OF THE                         
BOUNDARY...COOLER WEATHER WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SEEM LIKELY            
WITH 850MB DEWPOINTS AROUND 14C. EITHER WAY...IT WAS NECESSARY TO               
RAISE TEMPERATURES UP THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A SIGNIFICANT                   
INCREASE ON FRI NIGHT WITH A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO BE                
JUST NORTH OF UPPER MICHIGAN. MORE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED WILL             
BE NEEDED.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
THE STRATUS DECK OVER THE AREA HAS HELPED TO LIMIT FOG FORMATION                
THIS EVENING. NEVERTHELESS...CANNOT RULE OUT LOWER STRATUS OR FOG               
FORMATION LATER TONIGHT WITH VSBY FALLING AOB 1SM GIVEN ABUNDANT                
MOISTURE EVIDENT ON 00Z KSAW TAMDAR SOUNDING IN THE SFC-900 MB                  
LAYER. STRENGTHENING SRLY FLOW AND DEEPER MIXING TUE AHEAD OF THE               
NEXT TROUGH SHOULD HELP LIFT CIGS TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BULK             
OF THE PCPN WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF              
UNTIL UNTIL AROUND 22Z AT KCMX AND 01Z AT KSAW. PCPN WITH SHOWERS               
AND POSSIBLY AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL HELP LOWER                   
CIGS/VSBYS BACK INTO THE MVFR RANGE.                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FCST ISSUANCE)...                           
NEXT ACTIVE LOW PRES TROUGH WILL RACE E FROM THE PLAINS TODAY AND               
CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. SRLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP IN ADVANCE OF              
THIS TROUGH TO GENERALLY 15 TO 25KT...BUT IT`S NOT OUT OF THE                   
QUESTION THAT A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KT COULD OCCUR OVER THE E            
HALF OF THE LAKE LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING. W GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KT            
COULD OCCUR IMMEDIATELY AFTER TROF PASSAGE FROM AROUND THE KEWEENAW             
PENINSULA EWD LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING. WINDS FOR THE                     
REMAINDER OF THE FCST (WED AFTN THRU SAT) SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE            
10 TO 20KT RANGE WITH AN OCCASIONAL PERIOD OF 15 TO 25KT.                       
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
    DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY                                  
      MIZ004>007-010>014-084-085.                                               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...AJ                                                        
AVIATION...JLB                                                                  
MARINE...ROLFSON                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
220 AM EDT TUE OCT 2 2007                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
STRONG SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST                     
SOUTHWEST TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY                 
WEAKEN THROUGH THURSDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TODAY          
INTO WEDNESDAY... WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND OVER EASTERN               
NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY. MOISTURE AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL                   
INCREASE OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND                   
THURSDAY.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...                                                   
THE 200 AM DATA ANALYSIS INDICATED STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE                 
(1030+ MB) OVER NEW ENGLAND... EXTENDING SW DOWN THE                            
APPALACHIANS). THERE WAS A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH WELL OFFSHORE              
OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THE 00Z RAOBS INDICATED A DEEPENING                
EASTERLY FLOW FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC OVERSPREADING THE REGION                    
ESPECIALLY FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH H8. THERE WERE ONLY A                
FEW CIRRUS OVERHEAD OF CENTRAL NC AS OF 200 AM.                                 
WE CONTINUE TO ANTICIPATE A LOW STRATUS LAYER TO DEVELOP NEAR THE               
COAST AND SPREAD INLAND OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS                    
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z THIS MORNING. THE STRATUS SHOULD SPREAD WESTWARD                
INTO THE PIEDMONT BEFORE OR AROUND SUNRISE. THE LATEST SATELLITE                
DATA INDICATED STRATUS DEVELOPING RAPIDLY OVER THE COASTAL                      
AREA... AND WERE SPREADING INLAND. THE CURRENT FORECAST OF                      
BECOMING CLOUDY THIS MORNING SHOULD BE REALIZED BEFORE DAYBREAK IN              
ALL BUT THE FAR NW. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THIS MORNING... AS DEW                 
POINTS AND CLOUDS INCREASE. EXPECT MOSTLY MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.                 
THE REST OF TODAY SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY THE MORNING STRATUS                    
WHICH SHOULD BE SLOW TO BECOME BROKEN TO SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS                
BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE                    
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS AND THE DEVELOPING COASTAL                    
TROUGH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN THE NE SURFACE WINDS...                        
ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON (10-20 MPH)...                 
WITH LESS BREEZE OVER THE PIEDMONT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT               
WARMER HIGHS TODAY INTO THE MID 80S... YET THE CLOUDS AND                       
INCREASED MOISTURE SHOULD TEMPER THE WARMTH. EXPECT HIGHS MOSTLY                
78-83. WITH NO SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS... WE WILL KEEP POP NIL TODAY.               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                       
IT APPEARS THAT THE MODELS ARE FINALLY COMING INTO SOME AGREEMENT               
IN THE DEPICTION OF INCREASING MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL NC OVER THE                
NEXT FEW DAYS... HIGHLIGHTED BY INCREASING POP FOR WEDNESDAY INTO               
THURSDAY. THE LATEST GFS RUNS HAVE GONE MUCH WETTER THAN IN                     
PREVIOUS DAYS... AND WERE MORE IN LINE WITH THE WETTER NAM...                   
WRF... AND ECMWF. HOWEVER... THE 00Z/02 OCTOBER NAM CONTINUED TO                
BE STRONGER THAN THE OTHER MODELS WITH THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM                     
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE                 
12Z ECMWF AND 00Z UKMET ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS IN DEPICTING A            
WEAKER SYSTEM THAN THE NAM NEAR THE COAST BY MID WEEK... WHICH                  
ACTUALLY ALLOWS MORE MOISTURE TO GET TRANSPORTED WESTWARD INTO                  
CENTRAL NC. IF A STRONGER COASTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS... MOST OF THE                
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED VERY NEAR THE COAST.                            
THE BOTTOM LINE FOR CENTRAL NC... THE 00Z/02 OCTOBER GFS IS THE                 
FAVORED MODEL... WITH SUPPORT FROM MOST OF THE LATEST MODEL                     
SOLUTIONS... IN DEPICTING A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPMENT TODAY INTO               
WEDNESDAY. THIS TROUGH SHOULD BE PULLED INLAND OVER THE COASTAL                 
PLAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE STRONG RIDGING OVER THE                 
APPALACHIANS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN.                                   
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE E-SE (FIRST               
IN THE LOW LEVELS TODAY... THEN THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WEDNESDAY                 
INTO THURSDAY). PW`S ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 2 INCHES WEDNESDAY                  
INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AIDED BY LOW LEVEL                    
CONVERGENCE (COASTAL TROUGH)... ISENTROPIC LIFT (MOISTURE FLOW OFF              
THE ATLANTIC RIDING A TOP THE SHALLOW MORE STABLE NEAR SURFACE                  
LAYER).... AND AFTERNOON HEATING (INSTABILITY). ALTHOUGH THERE                  
COULD BE SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE WEDNESDAY MORNING... THE BEST CHANCE               
OF SHOWERS WILL COME WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY (BOTH AFTERNOON AND                 
EVENING PERIODS) AS THE COASTAL TROUGH ADVANCES INTO THE COASTAL                
PLAIN. THE UPSLOPE FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ALSO FAVOR AT LEAST                 
SOME RAINFALL ALL THE WAY INTO THE BLUE RIDGE.                                  
THEREFORE... WE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE HIGHEST POP EAST                 
BUT INCREASE THE POP ALL LOCATIONS WED AND THURS. WE WILL CONTINUE              
TO BE CONSERVATIVE WITH THE POP (GO WITH HIGH CHANCE - 40 AND 50)...            
AND QPF (KEEP UNDER 0.25) UNTIL WE GET ANOTHER COUPLE OF                        
AGREEABLE MODEL RUNS.                                                           
DAILY HIGHS WED AND THUR SHOULD BE HELD DOWN BY THE INCREASED                   
CLOUDS AND SHOWER CHANCES. WE WILL UNDERCUT THE MAV MOS BY A FEW                
DEGREES (HIGHS MOSTLY 75-80). LOWS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH               
THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE (65-70).                                                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...                                   
LONG TERM PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE                
POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND THE LACK OF A MODEL CONSENSUS AMONG              
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REGARDING THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW AND THE                
ASSOCIATED INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH. THE LATEST ECMWF WHICH MOVES                
THE GULF OF MEXICO SYSTEM DUE WEST IS THE OUTLIER...AS IT                       
HISTORICALLY PERFORMS POORLY WITH WEAK TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL                     
SYSTEMS. THE 12Z/01 NAM AND GFS ARE COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE                
CANADIAN....LIFTING A MORE SHEARED SYSTEM NORTH INTO THE GULF                   
COAST STATES.                                                                   
WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AS BOTH THE NAM AND GFS              
INDICATE COASTAL TROUGH/850 WARM FRONT OVER THE AREA WITH                       
PRECIPITABLE WATERS AT OR ABOVE 2.0 INCHES. AFTERWORDS...IT IS                  
REALLY ANYBODY`S GUESS. THE LATEST 00Z GFS WOULD DEFINITELY                     
INDICATE A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR RAIN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES                  
DUE TO CLOUD COVER.                                                             
FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE             
LOWER TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
ANOTHER DAY OF NORTHEAST FLOW ON TAP WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW                
ENGLAND AND SFC RIDGING EXTENDING DOWN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS.                
THERE WILL BE A STRONG POSSIBILITY OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS IN LOW                  
STRATUS AND/OR MVFR VISIBILITY IN FOG BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z THIS                  
MORNING. SOME VFR STRATUS AND STRATO CU DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN NC               
AND/OR ADVECTED INLAND OFF THE ATLANTIC YESTERDAY MORNING...WITH                
CEILINGS AROUND 5-6 KFT. LOOKING AT THE GFS/NAM BUFR AND RUC                    
SOUNDINGS...AND ALSO LOOKING AT THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE...THERE ARE                
STRONG HINTS OF A LOW STRATUS LAYER DEVELOPING IN THE COASTAL PLAIN             
BEFORE SUNRISE...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR FOG ELSEWHERE. LATEST              
11-3.9 SAT IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW IFR/LIFR STRATUS                   
ALREADY DEVELOPING AT ISO/PGV...WITH BKN CIGS AT 300-500 FT.                    
TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS AS OF 06Z WERE ONLY 1-5F ALONG AND EAST OF                
HIGHWAY 1...WITH 5-10F SPREADS IN THE WEST/NW PIEDMONT. CURRENT                 
THINKING IN THIS FLOW REGIME IS THAT FAY/RWI TAF SITES HAVE THE BEST            
CHANCE OF LOW STRATUS...FOLLOWED BY RDU AND THEN THE LOWEST CHANCE              
AT GSO/INT.                                                                     
DETERMINING WHEN ANY LOW STRATUS (FAY/RWI TAF SITES) WILL LIFT AND              
SCATTER OUT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE. CURRENT THOUGHTS            
ARE THAT ANY LOW STRATUS WILL LIFT INTO A BROKEN VFR DECK BY 14-16Z.            
ELSEWHERE...SCT/BKN VFR DIURNAL CU AND STRATO CU IS EXPECTED DURING             
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GFS/NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW 15-20 KT FLOW NOT              
TOO FAR OFF THE DECK AND THROUGHOUT THE MIXED LAYER AFTER 18Z THIS              
AFTERNOON IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...AND THIS IS THE BASIS FOR THE                  
14G20KT AT RWI/FAY TAF SITES FROM ROUGHLY 18-19Z UNTIL JUST BEFORE              
SUNSET. THIS MAY BE A LITTLE OVERDONE IF CLOUD COVER IS MORE                    
PERVASIVE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THE DEGREE OF DIURNAL                  
HEATING/MIXING IS SOMEWHAT MITIGATED.                                           
THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK...THE POSSIBILITY FOR IFR/LIFR STRATUS WILL            
INCREASE DURING THE POST-SUNSET AND PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH DEEP                    
MOISTURE EXPECTED. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VIS IN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL                
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WED INTO THU. -VINCENT                                         
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT                                                              
NEAR TERM...BADGETT/VINCENT                                                     
SHORT TERM...BADGETT                                                            
LONG TERM...BADGETT/RFG                                                         
AVIATION...VINCENT                                                              
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1046 AM CDT TUE OCT 2 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISSUED 1035 AM CDT TUE OCT 2 2007                                               
FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK TODAY AND JUST MINOR UPDATES TO THE                   
HOURLY GRIDS ACROSS CENTRAL/SE IL TODAY. A WARMER DAY THANKS TO                 
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH                       
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST. SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY                      
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER KNOX...FULTON AND SCHUYLER COUNTIES                  
AFTER 4 PM.                                                                     
15Z/10 AM SURFACE MAP SHOWS ELONGATED/DEEP 999 MB LOW PRESSURE                  
ALONG THE MN/ND BORDER WITH ITS STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH               
ACRSS FAR EASTERN SD INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND CENTRAL KS. 1032 MB              
HIGH PRESSURE WAS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND RIDGING SW TOWARD TX.           
IL IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE WX SYSTEMS.                    
CIRRUS CLOUDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING/THICKENING FROM THE WEST                     
EASTERN IL EAST OF I-57 STILL SEEING NEARLY SUNNY SKIES WITH                    
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FROM I-57 WEST. TEMPS WERE IN THE                  
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.             
RUC AND NAM-WRF SIMILAR IN BRING THE COLD FRONT EAST INTO CENTRAL               
IA AND NW MO BY SUNSET/00Z WHILE QPF NUDGING INTO KNOX...FULTON                 
AND SCHUYLER COUNTIES BETWEEN 4 AND 7 PM. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE                
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S AS CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST WITH BREEZY                
SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 15 TO 25 MPH. BRUNT OF SHOWERS AND                       
THUNDERSTORMS MOVES INTO CENTRAL IL TONIGHT WITH COLD FRONT NEAR                
I-55 BY 06Z AND IN SE IL BY 12Z/WED. SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE              
STORMS THIS EVENING WEST OF THE IL RIVER FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WIND               
GUSTS.                                                                          
HETTL                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISSUED 652 AM CDT TUE OCT 2 2007...FOR THE 12Z TAFS                             
PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS PLAGUED TAF SITES ALL NIGHT. VISIBILITY AND                
CIGS HAVE VARIED WIDELY BETWEEN VFR AND VLIFR. WILL TRY TO STAY                 
AHEAD OF THE PREVAILING VIS FOR THE REST OF THIS FOG EVENT. DEC AND CMI         
HAVE BEEN THE ONLY SITES WITH MORE PERSISTENT VLIFR CONDITIONS THE              
LAST HOUR OR SO...SO WILL GO WITH PREVAILING VLIFR CONDITIONS...AND             
TEMPO IN MVFR OR VFR. AFTER 15Z...ALL SITES SHOULD JUST HAVE A                  
BROKEN MID DECK DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON.                                        
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THIS EVENING...WITH STRONG                 
STORMS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 00Z AND 08Z. THE WINDOW FOR STORMS IN ANY               
LOCATION WILL MOST LIKELY BE VERY SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT...A 2                 
TO 4 HOUR TIME FRAME OF HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS. I LINGERED                
SOME MVFR CIGS AND SHOWERS FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.              
SHIMON                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
ISSUED 330 AM CDT TUE OCT 2 2007                                                
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.                                            
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS                 
WY/CO THIS MORNING... WITH AN EXPANSIVE PLUME OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL                
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING OUT AHEAD OF IT... STRETCHING FROM               
BAJA CALIFORNIA TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.                                          
INTERESTING TO NOTE ALSO THAT THE REMNANTS OF TD JULIETTE WHICH                 
IS CURRENTLY SHEARING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN SEA OF CORTEZ...                  
ARE ALSO GETTING CAUGHT UP IN THIS MOIST CONVEYOR BELT. THIS EXTRA              
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO ADVECT INTO THE                      
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON... RESULTING IN A RAPID INCREASE              
IN OVERALL MOISTURE... WITH PWAT VALUES NEARING THE 2-INCH MARK BY              
LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN IA/WESTERN ILLINOIS.                              
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION                 
THIS MORNING... WITH LOW LEVEL DRY AIR NEVER REALLY MAKING IT IN                
BEHIND YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT. LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS LURK NOT TOO FAR              
TO THE SOUTH ACROSS OK/AR. NAM/GFS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON LOW LEVEL              
MOISTURE... AND SUGGEST A NARROW PLUME OF UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS                   
ADVECTING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS              
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN                  
IA/MO AHEAD OF A PREFRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN                       
COLORADO. MAIN SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY                  
CATCH UP TO THE INITIAL CONVECTION... AND THIS ADDED LARGE SCALE                
FORCING WILL LIKELY HELP THE CONVECTION TRANSITION TO MORE OF                   
A LINEAR MODE.                                                                  
THE PROBLEM FOR US WILL BE THE POTENTIAL LACK OF INSTABILITY                    
COUPLED WITH THE TIMING OF THE FROPA. WHILE THE MID/UPPER LEVEL                 
MOISTURE PLUME WILL INCREASE PWAT VALUES ACROSS THE REGION... IT                
WILL ALSO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS                
THE REGION... ALREADY SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS IOWA AND                 
THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS MOISTURE WILL ALSO RESULT IN SHODDY MID-                 
LEVEL LAPSE RATES... FURTHER DECREASING OVERALL CONVECTIVE                      
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER... IT APPEARS STRONG SHEAR AND FORCING WILL                
MAKE UP FOR THIS LACK OF INSTABILITY... AT LEAST EARLY ON.                      
CONTINUED TO KEEP POPS MAINLY CONTAINED TO AFTER 00Z... EXCEPT FOR              
A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE EXTREME FAR WEST. OVERALL UPPER PATTERN                  
SUGGESTS TWO PRIMARY AREAS FOR HEAVIER CONVECTION/QPF WILL BE                   
FAVORED. ONE ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS...                   
WHICH WILL BE IN THE RRQ OF A 90-100KT JET STREAK AND CLOSER TO                 
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AS IT LIFTS ACROSS WISCONSIN. THE SECOND AREA              
WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHERE OVERALL                
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL BE MUCH HIGHER.                                     
HIGHEST POPS ARE IN THE WEST FOR THIS EVENING... AS STRONG FORCING              
HELPS TO MAINTAIN STRONG CONVECTION AS IT CROSSES INTO WESTERN                  
ILLINOIS. THIS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL QUICKLY OUTRACE THE THE                 
CONVECTION BY MIDNIGHT... RESULTING IN A RAPID WEAKENING TREND AS               
THE STORMS LOSE THEIR SUPPORT AT LEAST THIS FAR SOUTH. THUS                     
EXPECT OVERALL LOWER PRECIP COVERAGE AND QPF ACROSS EASTERN                     
ILLINOIS. AREAS OF SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS MAY BENEFIT FROM SLIGHTLY                 
HIGHER INSTABILITY AND COULD BE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE                      
AFOREMENTIONED SECOND FAVORED AREA FOR CONVECTION.                              
SVR THREAT WILL MAINLY BE WIND... EXPECTING PRIMARILY LINEAR                    
CONVECTION WITH BOWING SEGMENTS... BUT ISOLATED BOW ECHO TORNADOES              
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION... ESPECIALLY GIVEN SUCH IMPRESSIVE                 
SHEAR PARAMETERS ACROSS EASTERN ILLINOIS BETWEEN 00 AND 03Z.                    
0-6KM SHEAR OF AROUND 50KTS... AND 0-1KM SHEAR OF 20-30KTS.                     
COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR EAST WEDNESDAY                  
MORNING... BUT WILL ONLY HOLD ON TO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW...                  
ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING HOW QUICKLY THE LAST SYSTEM DEPARTED. DRY                
CONDITIONS SHOULD LAST THROUGH WED AND THURSDAY UNDER ZONAL FLOW.               
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.                                              
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL QUICKLY BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED BY THE END                
OF THE WORK WEEK... WITH A BROAD DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST                 
COAST AND BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.  GFS HAS BEEN              
FLIP- FLOPPING OVER THE PAST 3 DAYS TRYING TO FIGURE OUT HOW                    
QUICKLY TO CARRY THE WESTERN TROUGH WESTWARD. CONSIDERING THE LONG              
WAVELENGTH OF THE TROUGH AND THE RIDGING TO ITS EAST... WILL                    
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE SLOWER GUIDANCE... ESPECIALLY THE MORE                    
CONSISTENT ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM GLOBAL. WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW               
IN PLACE... TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL... IN THE 80S.           
CANNOT OUTRULE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION BECOMING AN ISSUE BY                   
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS... ESPECIALLY IF ANY WEAK                        
DISTURBANCES EJECT OUT OF THE MAIN TROUGH AND INTO THE PLAINS                   
STATES... AS HAS BEEN SUGGESTED BY THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM OVER THE PAST              
FEW DAYS. THE GULF LOOKS TO BE WIDE OPEN DURING THIS PERIOD...                  
WITH A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF RETURN MOISTURE FLOW. HOWEVER... PRECIP              
CHANCES ARE STILL TOO LOW TO BE MENTIONABLE AT THIS POINT... GIVEN              
THE UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE TIMING AND THE SUBTLE NATURE OF ANY                  
POTENTIAL DISTURBANCES. ANY CONVECTION WOULD LIKELY FAVOR AREAS                 
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS WELL... CLOSER TO              
THE LOW LEVEL JET.                                                              
HARDIMAN                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
740 AM EDT TUE OCT 2 2007                                                       
.SYNOPSIS (ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT)...                                             
07Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING            
COVERING MUCH OF THE EAST HALF OF THE U.S....EXCLUDING AN UPPER LOW             
OVER LAKE ERIE...AND A TROUGH STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL MONTANA INTO              
NORTHERN UTAH. QUIET WEATHER CURRENTLY EXISTS ACROSS THE CWA WITH               
THE AREA BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH...WITH THE ONLY ISSUES                
BEING IN THE AVIATION DEPARTMENT WITH LOW CLOUDS AND VISIBILITIES               
STUCK UNDERNEATH A RADIATIONAL AND COLD FRONTAL INVERSION (SEE 00Z              
APX SOUNDING). SO FAR...THE ONLY PLACES AROUND DENSE FOG ADVISORY               
CRITERIA ARE ESC...MNM...ISQ AND ERY PER OBS. THESE LOW CLOUDS                  
EXTEND INTO EASTERN MN...AND HAVE HELPED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES AND               
DEWPOINTS UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. TO THE WEST...LOW PRESSURE              
HAS DEVELOPED NEAR PIERRE SOUTH DAKOTA DUE TO DOWNSLOPING FLOW OFF              
THE ROCKIES AND HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TROUGH.            
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PCPN IS OCCURRING ALONG THE LOWS                      
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...WITH MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS PRESENT. THIS IS DUE            
TO A LOT OF LOW AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR AS SEEN ON THE 00Z NORTH                  
PLATTE NEBRASKA SOUNDING. ANY PCPN AT THE MOMENT WITH THE ENTIRE                
TROUGH IS FARTHER WEST OVER UTAH AND COLORADO. ALTHOUGH THE PCPN IS             
FAIRLY MINIMAL...THE SYSTEM IS PRODUCING PLENTY OF WIND...WITH                  
PROFILERS ACROSS NEBRASKA AND WESTERN KANSAS IN THE 40-50KT RANGE AT            
850MB. THESE WINDS...MOSTLY FROM THE SSW...ARE TRANSPORTING 850MB               
DEWPOINTS OF AROUND 10C NORTHWARD FROM WEST TEXAS AND SW KANSAS PER             
00Z RAOBS.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT)...                                           
TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODELS (GFS/NAM/UKMET/CANADIAN) ARE ALL IN GOOD             
AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE PROGRESSION AND TIMING OF THE UPPER               
LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVING EASTWARD. THEY ALL HAVE TRENDED              
TOWARDS THE SLOWER IDEA PRESENTED BY THE 00Z NAM/UKMET SHOWN                    
YESTERDAY. BY 00Z WED...THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BE OVER CENTRAL                
MINNESOTA WITH THE COLD FRONT IN WESTERN WI. BY 12Z WED...BOTH THE              
TROUGH AND FRONT ARE PROGGED TO BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN ONTARIO AND             
LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH STRONG DRYING COMING IN BEHIND IT. UNTIL THAT             
OCCURS...THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN AHEAD OF               
THE TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD BRING UP A NARROW ZONE OF 850MB THETA-E               
ADVECTION INTO THE CWA. WITHIN THIS ZONE...SHOWERS AND SOME                     
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS HEIGHT FALLS COME ACROSS               
FROM THE UPPER TROUGH. IT APPEARS THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL TAKE PLACE              
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER MN/WI AND PERHAPS THE FAR WESTERN                     
U.P....THEN GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.            
BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE TONIGHT...THOUGH...GIVEN THE                
SLOWER MOTION PROGGED WITH THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL             
HAVE A HARD TIME WARMING WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER...BUT SOUTHERLY               
WINDS SHOULD BE ABLE TO GIVE AT LEAST A 5-10 DEGREE RISE. BUMPED UP             
LOWS TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN THE EAST DUE TO THE SLOWER MOTION OF             
THE FRONT.                                                                      
WED THROUGH THU...DRY AIR ADVECTION THAT OCCURRED BEHIND TONIGHTS               
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR QUIET WEATHER DURING THIS                 
PERIOD. AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE EAST PACIFIC IS PROGGED              
TO DIG DOWN INTO THE WEST COAST...CAUSING HEIGHT RISES DOWNSTREAM.              
THESE HEIGHT RISES WILL PROMPT WARM ADVECTION OVER THE                          
AREA...HOWEVER GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS PRESENT...VERY LITTLE CLOUD                
COVER IS EXPECTED. ONLY ACROSS ISLE ROYALE AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR            
WED NIGHT AND THU IS THERE EXPECTED TO BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY               
SKIES...WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS PROGGED. THE WARM                
ADVECTION WILL ALLOW 850MB TEMPS TO CLIMB TO 8C AT 18Z WED AND TO               
14C BY 18Z THU. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX UP TO 850MB ON WED...GIVEN             
THE COOLER CONDITIONS...AND THUS ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER 60S             
TO LOW 70S. ON THU...GIVEN THE SUN ANGLE...IT MAY BE HARD TO REACH              
850MB...AND THUS HAVE ONLY WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.               
THU NIGHT AND FRI...WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION IS PROGGED TO                  
INCREASE ACROSS THE PLAINS...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN               
GREAT LAKES AS THE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST CONTINUES TO DIG                  
TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS. LEFT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR AFTER 06Z              
THU NIGHT FOR THE FAR WESTERN U.P. AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE              
ENOUGH MOISTENING OF THE LOW AND MID LEVELS TAKE PLACE. CONDITIONS              
LOOK BETTER FOR PCPN DEVELOPING ON FRI WITH CONTINUED MOISTENING AND            
THE PROSPECTS OF A SHRTWV OR SHRTWVS CROSSING...AS INDICATED BY THE             
00Z ECMWF/GFS. TO GIVE AN IDEA OF THE MOISTENING...850MB DEWPOINTS              
AT IMT CLIMB FROM -4C AT 00Z FRI TO 12C AT 00Z SAT. HAVE INCREASED              
POPS TO 40 FOR FRI.                                                             
FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST CAN HAVE A LOT              
OF BUST POTENTIAL...WITH UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT HOW THE WESTERN TROUGH             
EVOLVES. IT DOES SEEM LIKE...THOUGH...THAT MODELS ARE FOCUSING ONTO             
MORE RIDGING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING THE            
00Z UKMET WHICH IS VERY PROGRESSIVE WITH THE WESTERN TROUGH. THE                
SCENARIO OF MORE RIDGING...WITH A POSSIBLE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE            
AREA SEEMS MORE LIKELY. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...WARM AND                
HUMID CONDITIONS FOR OCTOBER ARE EXPECTED. NORTH OF THE                         
BOUNDARY...COOLER WEATHER WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SEEM LIKELY            
WITH 850MB DEWPOINTS AROUND 14C. EITHER WAY...IT WAS NECESSARY TO               
RAISE TEMPERATURES UP THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A SIGNIFICANT                   
INCREASE ON FRI NIGHT WITH A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO BE                
JUST NORTH OF UPPER MICHIGAN. MORE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED WILL             
BE NEEDED.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS HAVE SETTLED OVER KCMX/KSAW OVER THE LAST FEW             
HRS. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO LINGER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS               
(ESPECIALLY AT KSAW) BEFORE STRENGTHENING SRLY FLOW DUE TO AN                   
APPROACHING SFC TROF OVER THE PLAINS INCREASES MIXING AND THUS                  
RESULTS IN IMPROVING VIS/CIGS. JUST HOW FAST THE IMPROVEMENT OCCURS             
WILL BE A CHALLENGE...BUT BY LATE MORNING...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO                
HAVE IMPROVED INTO THE LWR MVFR RANGE. VFR CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL               
FOR MUCH OF THE AFTN THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT IN COMPLETE                 
DEPARTURE OF MVFR CIGS. COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS UPPER MI                    
TONIGHT...BRINGING A PERIOD OF SHRA TO KCMX/KSAW WITH MVFR/POSSIBLE             
IFR CONDITIONS. THERE SHOULD BE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT               
CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER ACTUALLY OCCURRING AT KCMX/KSAW IS TOO LOW TO             
INCLUDE IN THIS FCST ISSUANCE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FCST ISSUANCE)...                           
NEXT ACTIVE LOW PRES TROUGH WILL RACE E FROM THE PLAINS TODAY AND               
CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. SRLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP IN ADVANCE OF              
THIS TROUGH TO GENERALLY 15 TO 25KT...BUT IT`S NOT OUT OF THE                   
QUESTION THAT A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KT COULD OCCUR OVER THE E            
HALF OF THE LAKE LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING. W GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KT            
COULD OCCUR IMMEDIATELY AFTER TROF PASSAGE FROM AROUND THE KEWEENAW             
PENINSULA EWD LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING. WINDS FOR THE                     
REMAINDER OF THE FCST (WED AFTN THRU SAT) SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE            
10 TO 20KT RANGE WITH AN OCCASIONAL PERIOD OF 15 TO 25KT.                       
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
 DENSE FOG ADVY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TODAY MIZ004>007-010>014-084-085.               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...AJ                                                        
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...ROLFSON                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1251 PM CDT TUE OCT 2 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISSUED 1150 AM CDT TUE OCT 2 2007                                               
UPDATED DISCUSSION FOR SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK...                                      
SPC HAS RETREATED SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING WEST OF A           
GALESBURG TO JACKSONVILLE LINE. THIS COVERS SCHUYLER...SCOTT AND THE            
WESTERN QUARTER OF MORGAN AND CASS COUNTIES. BELOW IS SPC DISCUSSION.           
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 50 TO 60 KT MID LEVEL               
JET EJECTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NE                 
ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW            
STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM FAR EASTERN SD INTO CENTRAL KS TO                
PUSH ESE INTO CENTRAL IL NEAR THE IL RIVER BY 06Z/1 AM. DESPITE                 
PRESENCE OF HIGH THETA-E AIR/DEWPOINTS IN 60S IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE             
FRONT...SOME FACTORS REMAIN ACROSS THIS REGION WHICH ARE UNFAVORABLE            
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS INCLUDE THE RATHER WEAK LAPSE RATES              
SAMPLED ON 12Z SOUNDINGS AND HAVING LARGER SCALE ASCENT LIFTING AWAY            
FROM MODEST INSTABILITY AXIS OVER ERN KS/WRN MO DURING THE AFTERNOON.           
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN MAINTAINING ONGOING BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS              
WITH SLOW INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY EXPECTED FROM NE OK                
INTO SE IOWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS HEATING BOOSTS INSTABILITY.               
ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES REMAIN WEAK...MODEST SURFACE HEATING AND VERY              
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT AXIS OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG MLCAPE            
FROM SW OK INTO CENTRAL MO. MLCAPE WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW             
1000 J/KG INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY              
WILL LIKELY SUFFICE FOR INCREASE IN SEVERE THREAT THROUGH LATE                  
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING GIVEN STRONG LOW AND MID LEVEL SHEAR.               
SHEAR WILL BE STRONGEST FROM THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY/OZARK PLATEAU            
NNE AS 50 KT MID LEVEL JET AND 40+ KT LOW LEVEL JET EJECTS TOWARDS              
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. GREATEST SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THIS             
AREA WILL DEPEND UPON OVERALL STORM MODE...WITH 150+ SFC TO 1 KM                
STORM RELEATIVE HELICITY (SRH) AND HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER RH FAVORING A            
TORNADO THREAT SHOULD SUPERCELLS REMAIN DISCRETE. GIVEN STRONG SE               
MOVING COLD FRONT ALMOST NORMAL TO EXPECTED STORM MOTIONS...ACTIVITY            
MAY EVOLVE INTO SMALL LINES AND SUPPORT MAIN THREAT OF ISOLATED                 
DAMAGING WINDS UNTIL STORMS ARE UNDERCUT BY THE COLD FRONT. ACTIVITY            
SHOULD DEVELOP INTO A BROKEN SQUALL LINE ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS                
RIVER VALLEY DURING THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH SEVERE THREAT SHOULD WANE            
AS ACTIVITY SHIFTS ENE OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS THE IL               
RIVER VALLEY DURING THIS EVENING.                                               
PREVIOUS UPDATED DISCUSSION...                                                  
FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK TODAY AND JUST MINOR UPDATES TO THE HOURLY            
GRIDS ACROSS CENTRAL/SE IL TODAY. A WARMER DAY THANKS TO BREEZY                 
SOUTH WINDS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH INCREASING CLOUDS            
FROM THE WEST. SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER             
KNOX...FULTON AND SCHUYLER COUNTIES AFTER 4 PM.                                 
15Z/10 AM SURFACE MAP SHOWS ELONGATED/DEEP 999 MB LOW PRESSURE                  
ALONG THE MN/ND BORDER WITH ITS STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH               
ACRSS FAR EASTERN SD INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND CENTRAL KS. 1032 MB              
HIGH PRESSURE WAS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND RIDGING SW TOWARD TX.           
IL IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE WX SYSTEMS.                    
CIRRUS CLOUDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING/THICKENING FROM THE WEST                     
EASTERN IL EAST OF I-57 STILL SEEING NEARLY SUNNY SKIES WITH                    
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FROM I-57 WEST. TEMPS WERE IN THE                  
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.             
RUC AND NAM-WRF SIMILAR IN BRING THE COLD FRONT EAST INTO CENTRAL               
IA AND NW MO BY SUNSET/00Z WHILE QPF NUDGING INTO KNOX...FULTON                 
AND SCHUYLER COUNTIES BETWEEN 4 AND 7 PM. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE                
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S AS CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST WITH BREEZY                
SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 15 TO 25 MPH. BRUNT OF SHOWERS AND                       
THUNDERSTORMS MOVES INTO CENTRAL IL TONIGHT WITH COLD FRONT NEAR                
I-55 BY 06Z AND IN SE IL BY 12Z/WED. SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE              
STORMS THIS EVENING WEST OF THE IL RIVER FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WIND               
GUSTS.                                                                          
HUETTL                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISSUED 1242 PM CDT TUE OCT 2 2007                                               
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH SUNSET ACROSS CENTRAL IL TAF                  
SITES WITH FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN              
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST. BREEZY SOUTH                   
WINDS NEAR 15 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20 TO 22 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. SHARP               
COLD FRONT OVER FAR WESTERN MN...FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL MOVE                 
EAST TOWARD THE IL RIVER BY 06Z/1 AM AND EAST OF I-57 BY 12Z/WED.               
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS COLD                  
FRONT. HAVE ABOUT A 4 HOUR PERIOD OF CONVECTION TIMED TO REACH PIA              
BY 02Z... SPI BY 03Z...BMI AND DEC BY 04Z AND CMI BY 05Z/MIDNIGHT.              
HEAVY RAINS COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO 1.5 TO 2 MILES AND GUSTS               
WSW WINDS AROUND 35 KTS. BROKEN 2500 CLOUDS TO SCATTERED OUT                    
BETWEEN 11Z AND 15Z WED MORNING WITH WEST WINDS OF 7 OR 8 KTS.                  
HUETTL                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
ISSUED 330 AM CDT TUE OCT 2 2007                                                
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.                                            
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS                 
WY/CO THIS MORNING... WITH AN EXPANSIVE PLUME OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL                
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING OUT AHEAD OF IT... STRETCHING FROM               
BAJA CALIFORNIA TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.                                          
INTERESTING TO NOTE ALSO THAT THE REMNANTS OF TD JULIETTE WHICH                 
IS CURRENTLY SHEARING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN SEA OF CORTEZ...                  
ARE ALSO GETTING CAUGHT UP IN THIS MOIST CONVEYOR BELT. THIS EXTRA              
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO ADVECT INTO THE                      
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON... RESULTING IN A RAPID INCREASE              
IN OVERALL MOISTURE... WITH PWAT VALUES NEARING THE 2-INCH MARK BY              
LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN IA/WESTERN ILLINOIS.                              
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION                 
THIS MORNING... WITH LOW LEVEL DRY AIR NEVER REALLY MAKING IT IN                
BEHIND YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT. LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS LURK NOT TOO FAR              
TO THE SOUTH ACROSS OK/AR. NAM/GFS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON LOW LEVEL              
MOISTURE... AND SUGGEST A NARROW PLUME OF UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS                   
ADVECTING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS              
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN                  
IA/MO AHEAD OF A PREFRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN                       
COLORADO. MAIN SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY                  
CATCH UP TO THE INITIAL CONVECTION... AND THIS ADDED LARGE SCALE                
FORCING WILL LIKELY HELP THE CONVECTION TRANSITION TO MORE OF                   
A LINEAR MODE.                                                                  
THE PROBLEM FOR US WILL BE THE POTENTIAL LACK OF INSTABILITY                    
COUPLED WITH THE TIMING OF THE FROPA. WHILE THE MID/UPPER LEVEL                 
MOISTURE PLUME WILL INCREASE PWAT VALUES ACROSS THE REGION... IT                
WILL ALSO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS                
THE REGION... ALREADY SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS IOWA AND                 
THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS MOISTURE WILL ALSO RESULT IN SHODDY MID-                 
LEVEL LAPSE RATES... FURTHER DECREASING OVERALL CONVECTIVE                      
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER... IT APPEARS STRONG SHEAR AND FORCING WILL                
MAKE UP FOR THIS LACK OF INSTABILITY... AT LEAST EARLY ON.                      
CONTINUED TO KEEP POPS MAINLY CONTAINED TO AFTER 00Z... EXCEPT FOR              
A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE EXTREME FAR WEST. OVERALL UPPER PATTERN                  
SUGGESTS TWO PRIMARY AREAS FOR HEAVIER CONVECTION/QPF WILL BE                   
FAVORED. ONE ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS...                   
WHICH WILL BE IN THE RRQ OF A 90-100KT JET STREAK AND CLOSER TO                 
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AS IT LIFTS ACROSS WISCONSIN. THE SECOND AREA              
WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHERE OVERALL                
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL BE MUCH HIGHER.                                     
HIGHEST POPS ARE IN THE WEST FOR THIS EVENING... AS STRONG FORCING              
HELPS TO MAINTAIN STRONG CONVECTION AS IT CROSSES INTO WESTERN                  
ILLINOIS. THIS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL QUICKLY OUTRACE THE THE                 
CONVECTION BY MIDNIGHT... RESULTING IN A RAPID WEAKENING TREND AS               
THE STORMS LOSE THEIR SUPPORT AT LEAST THIS FAR SOUTH. THUS                     
EXPECT OVERALL LOWER PRECIP COVERAGE AND QPF ACROSS EASTERN                     
ILLINOIS. AREAS OF SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS MAY BENEFIT FROM SLIGHTLY                 
HIGHER INSTABILITY AND COULD BE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE                      
AFOREMENTIONED SECOND FAVORED AREA FOR CONVECTION.                              
SVR THREAT WILL MAINLY BE WIND... EXPECTING PRIMARILY LINEAR                    
CONVECTION WITH BOWING SEGMENTS... BUT ISOLATED BOW ECHO TORNADOES              
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION... ESPECIALLY GIVEN SUCH IMPRESSIVE                 
SHEAR PARAMETERS ACROSS EASTERN ILLINOIS BETWEEN 00 AND 03Z.                    
0-6KM SHEAR OF AROUND 50KTS... AND 0-1KM SHEAR OF 20-30KTS.                     
COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR EAST WEDNESDAY                  
MORNING... BUT WILL ONLY HOLD ON TO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW...                  
ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING HOW QUICKLY THE LAST SYSTEM DEPARTED. DRY                
CONDITIONS SHOULD LAST THROUGH WED AND THURSDAY UNDER ZONAL FLOW.               
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.                                              
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL QUICKLY BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED BY THE END                
OF THE WORK WEEK... WITH A BROAD DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST                 
COAST AND BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.  GFS HAS BEEN              
FLIP- FLOPPING OVER THE PAST 3 DAYS TRYING TO FIGURE OUT HOW                    
QUICKLY TO CARRY THE WESTERN TROUGH WESTWARD. CONSIDERING THE LONG              
WAVELENGTH OF THE TROUGH AND THE RIDGING TO ITS EAST... WILL                    
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE SLOWER GUIDANCE... ESPECIALLY THE MORE                    
CONSISTENT ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM GLOBAL. WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW               
IN PLACE... TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL... IN THE 80S.           
CANNOT OUTRULE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION BECOMING AN ISSUE BY                   
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS... ESPECIALLY IF ANY WEAK                        
DISTURBANCES EJECT OUT OF THE MAIN TROUGH AND INTO THE PLAINS                   
STATES... AS HAS BEEN SUGGESTED BY THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM OVER THE PAST              
FEW DAYS. THE GULF LOOKS TO BE WIDE OPEN DURING THIS PERIOD...                  
WITH A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF RETURN MOISTURE FLOW. HOWEVER... PRECIP              
CHANCES ARE STILL TOO LOW TO BE MENTIONABLE AT THIS POINT... GIVEN              
THE UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE TIMING AND THE SUBTLE NATURE OF ANY                  
POTENTIAL DISTURBANCES. ANY CONVECTION WOULD LIKELY FAVOR AREAS                 
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS WELL... CLOSER TO              
THE LOW LEVEL JET.                                                              
HARDIMAN                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL                                      
1147 AM CDT TUE OCT 2 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WIDESPREAD ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ALONG AXIS OF STRONG                
WARM ADVECTION AT 850 MB ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA WERE NOT WELL HANDLED              
BY 12Z MODELS. THESE CONTINUE TO DRIFT E-NE AND WILL BE ENTERING                
FAR NW COUNTIES OVER NOON HOUR AND MUCH OF IA W OF HWY 218 BY MID               
AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES TO SPEED UP ONSET OF THIS                   
PRECIPITATION FOR LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HOW LONG THIS                     
ELEVATED CONVECTION PERSISTS AND THE AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS              
IT CONTINUES TO SPEW E-NE OVER CWA TO LIMIT INSOLATION WILL BE                  
CRITICAL TO SEVERE POTENTIAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN MOST                    
CONSERVATIVE RUC HAS 65 DEGREE DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN KS              
AND WESTERN MO OVERSPREADING MUCH OF EASTERN IA AHEAD OF THE COLD               
FRONT TOWARD 00Z WHEN WIND SHEAR IS MAXIMIZED AND MOST FAVORABLE.               
TRENDS ON VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOW THINNEST CI AND POTENTIAL FOR                  
SURFACE HEATING OVER NE MO...FAR SOUTHEAST IA AND ADJACENT W                    
CENTRAL IL. THUS...BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS LIMITED TO THIS                  
AREA FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SPC IN AGREEMENT WITH                
THIS THINKING...WITH NEW DAY ONE SLIGHT RISK NOW CONFINED TO SE                 
IA...NE MO AND W CENTRAL IL.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL IOWA WILL OVERSPREAD                   
EASTERN IOWA THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS AND CIGS AND VISIBILITIES                
WILL DEVELOP INTO THE CID SITE EARLY AFTERNOON...REACHING                       
DBQ...MLI AND BRL FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A POTENTIAL              
FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH SURFACE WIND GUSTS UP TO 40KTS AND                  
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS                  
OVER 50KTS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO                
15 TO 25 MPH RANGE BY MID AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF HIGHER GUSTS.                    
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING SWEEPING               
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE AREA AND VEERING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST.               
THE FRONT WILL ALSO IMPROVE CONDITIONS TO VFR CRITERIA.                         
&&                                                                              
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IA...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHEETS                                                                          
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
315 PM CDT TUE OCT 2 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES...                                                     
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA                 
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY SEEING BACK EDGE OF                
PRECIP IN ASSOCIATION WITH MID LEVEL COOL FRONT/TROUGH AXIS MOVING              
INTO FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA. THE BACK EDGE SHOULD REACH THE EASTERN              
CWA AROUND 00Z WITH PRECIP ENDING ACROSS THE WISCONSIN COUNTIES                 
AROUND 04Z OR SO. CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO SHARPLY DECREASE FROM WEST              
TO EAST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AS DRYING WORKS IN. MAY SEE SOME               
LOW STRATUS LINGER ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA TOWARDS DAYBREAK. WINDS           
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH        
THE EARLY EVENING BUT WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT. A SHORT                 
WAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN ALBERTA MOVES EASTWARD WELL NORTH OF THE               
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A SFC LOW ALSO MOVES ACROSS                     
SOUTHERN CANADA ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS                
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS BRINGS A QUICK RETURN OF SOUTHWEST WINDS                
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY. HAVE WARMED TEMPERATURES A FEW                   
DEGREES TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT LOCAL DOWNSLOPING WITH THE GUSTY                   
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS. MILD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE WITH DRY                       
CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY.                                              
LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OFF THE WEST COAST OF             
CANADA WILL DEEPEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT COMES ONSHORE               
INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE                
EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL BE             
DISCUSSED BELOW. IN THE MEANTIME...EXPECT A WARM FRONT TO DEVELOP               
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO                  
CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS SFC LOW PRESSURE TAKES            
SHAPE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. INDICATIONS ARE THAT MOISTURE                  
TRANSPORT INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY LATER THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY AS             
GULF OF MEXICO OPENS UP ON BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC. AN      
UPPER SPEED MAX IS ALSO EXPECTED TO NOSE INTO THE AREA AS WELL.                 
RIGHT NOW FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A WET DAY. FROM THERE...WARM               
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA FOR SATURDAY.              
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN ITS POSITION SO LOW POPS HAVE BEEN RETAINED             
FOR NOW BUT SATURDAY MAY END UP BEING RELATIVELY DRY AND POTENTIALLY            
VERY WARM AS MID LEVEL WARM AIR INCREASES. FROM THERE THE CONFIDENCE            
DECREASES IN THE FORECAST AS MENTIONED BELOW.                                   
CONFIDENCE HAS DECREASED IN THE MEDIUM RANGE OF THE                             
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT               
WEEK. MODELS HAVE COME IN WITH VERY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS THAN SEEN               
YESTERDAY. OVERALL PROGRESSION OF APPROACHING LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH             
IS SLOWER. GFS AND ECMWF ARE CONSISTENT IN THAT THEY BOTH SHOW THE              
SAME BIG CHANGE WITH DIFFERENCES REMAINING IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF            
FEATURES. AS FOR THE DETAILS...BROAD UPPER TROUGH OFF THE CANADIAN WEST         
COAST AMPLIFIES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT APPROACHES THE U.S.                
WEST COAST AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. THE CHANGE COMES IN THAT THIS               
LOW IS NOW FORECAST TO CUT OFF OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. SETTING UP               
BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE END OF             
THE WEEK. THIS SCENARIO HAS MAJOR IMPLICATIONS ON THE FORECAST.                 
NAMELY...THE WEEKEND WOULD REMAIN WARMER...AND POTENTIALLY DRIER                
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT /SATURDAY ESPECIALLY/ DEPENDING WHERE THE               
FRONT GETS HUNG UP. AT THIS POINT SUNDAY WOULD SEE A RETURN OF                  
PRECIPITATION AS UPPER LOW EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD BUT THIS MAY STILL              
NEED TO BE SLOWED. CONFIDENCE IS LOW SINCE THIS BIG CHANGE HAS JUST             
OCCURRED BUT HAVE TRENDED IN THE DIRECTION OF A SLOWER PROGRESSION              
WITH THE LOW CUTTING OFF. MAY CONTINUE TO SEE LARGE CHANGES OVER THE            
NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS. HEMISPHERIC SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A TROUGH               
NEAR 45N AND 150E TODAY. THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE HAVING DIFFICULTY              
HANDLING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE AS IT NEARS ALASKA LATER THIS            
WEEK...OR ABOUT THE TIME WHEN THE PACIFIC TROUGH REACHES THE WEST               
COAST. THIS APPEARS TO HAVE AN EFFECT ON WHETHER THE LOW CUTS OFF AS            
SOON AS IT IS NOW FORECAST TO OR WAITS AND STAYS OPEN LONGER AS RUNS            
FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS HAD SHOWN. ANOTHER IMPLICATION OF THE LOW                
CUTTING OFF IS THAT LESS COOLER AIR WILL DROP TOWARDS THE REGION                
BECAUSE ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AS OPPOSED TO THE             
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ADVERTISED EARLIER.   ..MDB..                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../18Z TAFS/                                                          
CONCERN WITH THE TAFS ARE SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS THIS AFTN INTO                  
THIS EVE. SURFACE COLD FRONT...ALMOST MORE OF A DRYLINE...WILL                  
MOVE FROM WRN MN TO THE MN/WI BORDER BY 00Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT                   
QUICKLY FROM SOUTHERLY TO WEST NORTHWEST WITH FROPA...WITH GUSTS                
BOTH IN ADVANCE AND BEHIND OF THE FRONT REACHING UP TO AS HIGH AS               
25 KTS. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE                         
AREA...INCLUDING BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT...AS DEEP MOISTURE                    
REMAINS UNDER BROAD SCALE ASCENT. SO TEMPOS GENERALLY PREVAILING                
THIS AFTN. EMBEDDED MCV PASSING OVER STC WILL OFFER THE BEST                    
CHANCE FOR THUNDER...POSSIBLY SPREADING DOWN TOWARDS MSP. MVFR                  
CIGS SHOULD MOVE ACROSS SRN AND ERN MN AND WRN WI AS INDICATED BY               
RUC MODEL 950 AND 925MB MOISTURE FIELDS CORRELATING WELL WITH                   
SATELLITE TRENDS. THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO SCOUR FROM WEST                 
TO EAST TONIGHT...PRESSURE RISES AND DRY AIR ARE FAIRLY                         
SUBSTANTIAL IN THE DAKOTAS SO THE FORECAST THOUGHT IS THAT THEY                 
INDEED WILL SCOUR TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR EAU.                                     
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MDB/MTF                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
103 PM CDT TUE OCT 2 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER ND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT               
TRAILING SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN CO. SYSTEM TO PROGRESS RATHER                    
QUICKLY TO THE EAST TODAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BE                  
EAST OF KEAU BY THIS EVENING. MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS POTENTIAL FOR               
HEAVY RAIN OVER SE MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. VIGOROUS UPPER TROF OVER             
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS ATTM. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES INTO THE                    
NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING...A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE DEVELOPS                 
OVER SOUTHERN MN AND IA BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. GFS DIFFERENTIAL               
LAYER DIVERGENCE QUITE IMPRESSIVE FROM KMSP TO KDSM. PRECIPITABLE               
WATER VALUES PROJECTED BY THE GFS TO INCREASE NEARLY THREE QUARTERS             
OF AN INCH BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z OVER THE EASTERN CWA WITH A PW                   
VALUE AROUND 1.5 INCHES EXPECTED BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS               
MORE THAN 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. HAVE INSERTED HEAVY               
RAIN INTO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY FOR EASTERN AREAS WITH POPS FROM               
80 TO 100 PERCENT. SUBTROPICAL JET IS ALSO BRINGING HIGH LEVEL                  
MOISTURE FROM THE REMAINS OF JULIETTE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.                  
PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS PAGE SHOWING A SWATH OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF                 
OBSERVED PRECIPITATION IN THE PAST 7 DAYS FROM FARIBAULT AND                    
FREEBORN COUNTIES ON NORTHEAST ACROSS RUSK...CHIPPEWA AND EAU                   
CLAIRE COUNTIES. CONSIDERED A FFA FOR TODAY...BUT PROGRESSIVE                   
NATURE OF SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP AMOUNTS TO AN INCH. THE DAY SHIFT                  
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR INDICATIONS THAT THE SYSTEM IS                 
NOT PROGRESSING AS FAST AS FORECAST.                                            
BEYOND TODAY...MUCH BETTER WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS                
A MILD WESTERLY FLOW OCCURS. BIG CHANGE WITH THE GFS OVER THE PAST              
THREE RUNS WITH REGARDS TO THE WEEKEND WEATHER MAKER. CLOSED 500MB              
LOW SUNDAY MORNING OVER EASTERN IA ON THE 01/12Z RUN IS NOW OVER                
THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA ON THE 02/00Z RUN. THIS HAS HUGE                      
IMPLICATIONS TO THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...THIS PERIOD (DAYS 6 AND 7)              
ARE NOT TOUCHED ON THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT. THE DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO               
MAKE SOME REVISIONS. FOR COMPARISON...THE ECMWF FROM 01/00Z                     
INDICATED AN UPPER TROF OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE 02/00Z RUN                 
HAS A CLOSED LOW OVER NEBRASKA. SO IT APPEARS THE GFS IS HEADING                
IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION. IMPLICATIONS WOULD BE A WARMER AND NOT AS               
WET WEEKEND.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../18Z TAFS/                                                          
CONCERN WITH THE TAFS ARE SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS THIS AFTN INTO                  
THIS EVE. SURFACE COLD FRONT...ALMOST MORE OF A DRYLINE...WILL                  
MOVE FROM WRN MN TO THE MN/WI BORDER BY 00Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT                   
QUICKLY FROM SOUTHERLY TO WEST NORTHWEST WITH FROPA...WITH GUSTS                
BOTH IN ADVANCE AND BEHIND OF THE FRONT REACHING UP TO AS HIGH AS               
25 KTS. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE                         
AREA...INCLUDING BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT...AS DEEP MOISTURE                    
REMAINS UNDER BROAD SCALE ASCENT. SO TEMPOS GENERALLY PREVAILING                
THIS AFTN. EMBEDDED MCV PASSING OVER STC WILL OFFER THE BEST                    
CHANCE FOR THUNDER...POSSIBLY SPREADING DOWN TOWARDS MSP. MVFR                  
CIGS SHOULD MOVE ACROSS SRN AND ERN MN AND WRN WI AS INDICATED BY               
RUC MODEL 950 AND 925MB MOISTURE FIELDS CORRELATING WELL WITH                   
SATELLITE TRENDS. THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO SCOUR FROM WEST                 
TO EAST TONIGHT...PRESSURE RISES AND DRY AIR ARE FAIRLY                         
SUBSTANTIAL IN THE DAKOTAS SO THE FORECAST THOUGHT IS THAT THEY                 
INDEED WILL SCOUR TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR EAU.                                     
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RAH/MTF                                                                         
</pre> mn