FXUS04 KWBC 051856 PAA
QPFPFD

 
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
254 PM EDT SUN SEP 05 2004
 
PRELIM DAY 1 AND DAY 2 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 07/0000 UTC THRU SEP 08/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
 

DAY1...

...FRANCES AND THE SE ATLC COAST...

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS THINKING CONCERNING
FRANCES.   THE MANUAL QPF REFLECTS THE LATEST NHC FCST
TRACK..PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR SPECIFICS ON THIS
STORM.  THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM TO THE NW...AND
OBVIOUS AVBLTY OF HI PW PROMISES TO BRING EXTREME RNFL AMTS
ALONG ITS TRACK.  TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 10 INCHES
ARE LIKELY DURING THIS PD.   MEANWHILE...SHWRS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ALONG A SE ATLC COASTAL CNVGNC ZONE
WHICH SHOULD BE INTENSIFYING WITH TIME.  THE ETA AND GFS BOTH
INDC INCRSG PW AVBLTY INVOF THIS FEATURE AND THE AREA WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF FVBL RT ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS.
NOT VERY COMFORTABLE WITH ANY OF THE MODEL QPF GUIDANCE HERE
GIVEN THE ETAS SEEMING MISHANDLING OF FRANCES...TOO
SLOW...AND THE GFS CNVCTV FEEDBACK PROBLEMS OFF THE NC COAST.

...CNTRL U.S. CDFNT...

MODELS ARE IN GD AGREEMENT THAT A CDFNT WILL BE ADVANCING SWD
AND EWD ACROSS THE REGION AS A STG SHRTWV ADVANCES OUT OF THE
CNTRL ROCKIES.   MODEL QPFS ARE IN THE SAME BALLPARK OVR THE
UPPER MS VLY/UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER LAKES REGION WHERE GUIDANCE
INDCS A STG NWD MSTR FLUX WILL BE AVBL TO SUPPORT SHWRS.  
STGLY DIV FLOW ALOFT...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE PD...WILL AID
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WHILE A SFC LOW ON THE FRONT
ENHANCES THE LLVL MSTR CNVGNC.  ETA LOOKED SHY ON AMTS INVOF
IA/MN PER ITS OWN VERT VEL GUIDANCE AS STG MID LVL FORCING
WILL BE AVBL TO TAP MSTR ALONG THE CDFNT THERE.  FARTHER TO
THE SOUTH...NOT VERY CONFIDENT ON PCPN PLACEMENT OVR THE SRN
PLAINS AND TX.   UPPER LVL FORCING WILL NOT BE VERY STG HERE
AND THE INFLUENCE OF PIECES OF ENERGY OR MSTR ASOCTD WITH
HOWARD IS PROBLEMATICAL.  FELT A BLENDING OF THE ETA AND GFS
QPFS WAS THE WAY TO GO FOR THE MOMENT GIVEN THE INABILITY TO
PICK AND CHOOSE BTWN SOLUTIONS.

               
DAY 2...

...SERN STATES...

ALL EYES WL REMAIN ON THE TRACK OF FRANCES THIS PD. THE STORM IS
FCST TO LIFT NNW FRM THE E CNTRL GULF COAST REGION AS AN UPR
TROF EJECTING ACRS THE MID/UPR MS VLY HELPS TO ERODE THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACRS THE OH VLY/ MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE
POLEWARD TURN WL ALLOW FOR THE THREAT OF A VRY SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EVENT FOR THE INTERIOR OF THE SOUTHEAST AND ESP THE
SRN APPALACHIANS.  PLS REFER TO LATEST NHC BULLETINS AND
ADVISORIES FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON FRANCES. 

VRY HIGH PWS/TROPICAL MOISTURE FRM FRANCES WL SPREAD NWD AS
THE UPR TROF AND ATTENDANT FRONT APPROACHES FRM THE MS VLY.
THE BAROCLINIC INTERACTION ESP LATE IN THE PD BETWEEN THE FRONT
AND THE DEEP MOISTURE OF FRANCES SHD ALLOW AN ENHANCEMENT OF
MDT/HVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION NWD INTO THE ERN TN
VLY/APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE...STG LOW TO MID LVL SELY FLOW
RUNNING PERPENDICULAR TO THE E SLOPES OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS
SHD SET UP AN ALMOST CLASSIC SCENARIO FOR HVY TO EXCESSIVE
UPSLOPE RAINS. 

GIVEN THE LARGE SIZE OF FRANCES AND ITS WELL-ORGANIZED
STRUCTURE...MANUAL PROGS DEPICT HVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINS OVR A
BROAD AREA THIS PD AND ESP TO THE RIGHT OF THE STORM TRACK.
RAINFALL AMTS THIS PD FRM THE FL PANHANDLE NWD TWD THE SRN
APPALACHIANS MAY EASILY EXCEED 5 INCHES. 

...ERN GRT LAKES...

A FRONT ASSOC WITH AN UPR TROF WL BE ADVANCING EWD AND SHD
ENCOUNTER SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND THERMODYNAMICS FOR SCT
SHWRS/TSTMS. BY LATE IN THE PD...THE FRONT SHD SLOW DOWN AS
FRANCES APPROACHES FRM THE SOUTH AND BEGINS SLOWLY MERGING
WITH THE FRONT. MANUAL PROGS ACRS THE ERN LAKES REGION REFLECT
THE SOMEWHAT SLOWER ETA SOLN WHICH STILL HAS BROADER SUPPORT
FRM THE UKMET/CMC SOLNS. THE GFS IS JUST A BIT FASTER. MOST AREAS
SHD SEE NR A 0.25 INCH.

...SRN TEXAS...

A CDFNT SHD SLOWLY SINK SEWD THIS PD AND START TO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE. HOWEVER...AN ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH IN
PART INCLUDES MOISTURE FRM FOR HRCN HOWARD IN THE E PAC SHD BE
IN PLACE AND WL PROMOTE SCT TO LOCALLY BKN AREAS OF
SHWRS/TSTMS. RAINFALL AMTS MAY BE LOCALLY HVY GIVEN PWS IN
EXCESSIVE OF 2.25 INCHES AS THE GFS SUGGESTS. MANUAL PROGS
REFLECT AN ETA/GFS BLEND.

KORTY/ORRISON

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
 
24HR QP VT 07/00Z
 0.01 508803 506793 504786 498785 494786 481794 471802 456818 
      450822 444827 435834 432838 425842 422846 417850 401867 
      393874 386881 379890 374898 364908 361909 356914 336925 
      333927 330931 321939 315946 309952 300957 294964 287972 
      282981 277989 272998 266014 263026 262036 262044 263051 
      267059 273066 278071 285093 287097 290101 296102 301100 
      303096 302091 298087 294082 291075 292070 295066 302046 
      308039 312030 325014 332005 338000 346996 356991 369988 
      373986 378984 398972 401970 408968 422966 425966 429970 
      434976 439991 439996 441999 446002 456003 468998 476990 
      479988 482984 489975 495964 501949 504937 512907 515890 
      515885 516875 516861 515844 514836 512829 508819 508803 
 0.01 386734 382732 376735 369737 364737 360732 355727 352726 
      348725 341729 338733 333745 328755 323765 316774 312778 
      306782 300786 294787 286787 278788 274789 266791 260793 
      251800 244808 241817 239829 239840 241846 244848 264853 
      268855 272860 276869 280874 283877 289881 294882 305882 
      317878 325875 328872 337863 350845 362824 376806 386797 
      389791 391785 391780 389780 383781 379780 376777 375772 
      377766 378762 382751 385741 386734 
 0.25 508876 508867 506858 503853 500851 496850 491852 487853 
      486852 487846 489837 489826 487820 483818 474819 469822 
      464827 458832 442846 427859 416870 393900 388907 386912 
      390915 395918 393923 388931 382939 379941 374942 368939 
      366934 365928 358930 350936 343940 338941 335943 329949 
      317962 305972 300976 295983 290998 287006 285016 285022 
      287026 293024 302011 311008 316003 326990 331984 340981 
      346979 354974 361968 367962 370960 374960 378963 381963 
      386963 390961 396958 403954 414949 419948 425948 433949 
      438951 441954 446962 453980 457984 461984 467981 471978 
      474973 479966 485957 491948 495940 498933 502921 504911 
      507891 508876 
 0.25 355745 354741 350737 346737 344740 339748 336756 328771 
      322778 317784 311790 302793 286794 277795 269796 260800 
      254805 249812 247819 246828 248831 251833 258837 264839 
      271842 275847 280855 287862 292867 298870 304869 309868 
      314866 317863 323856 327849 332833 337824 341818 348812 
      354804 357796 358788 359777 359766 359756 356747 355745 
 0.50 502879 500870 498863 496862 493864 489867 479874 476876 
      471876 467872 467867 469860 473854 477850 480844 480838 
      480833 477830 470828 460838 450845 442853 434861 431867 
      427871 422874 418879 413886 413890 415891 421888 425885 
      431882 434885 434890 427898 420900 415904 408913 402922 
      396929 392935 390940 386952 388955 391955 396953 405948 
      415943 428939 435937 440934 444931 447932 451938 454943 
      456952 455957 454966 455972 458975 464974 467970 474960 
      483950 489939 494928 498917 501903 502888 502879 
 0.50 354757 353750 350746 345747 342752 335766 327779 321786 
      317791 312795 308797 300797 292797 286797 276798 269800 
      260804 255808 252815 250822 259831 273839 277844 282851 
      292862 298866 306866 311864 315861 320855 323848 325839 
      327832 330824 338810 344804 347797 351781 353766 354757 
 0.50 361959 360954 356952 355946 349947 344952 331958 327960 
      325962 321968 315970 309974 304979 301985 301989 306985 
      312982 313986 313990 316990 318988 323983 326978 330974 
      336969 340968 344968 346970 350971 355967 361959 
 1.00 494900 494894 492890 486894 479904 471915 464926 463935 
      463942 462952 462958 462962 464962 468959 476949 480943 
      483937 488925 492910 494900 
 1.00 424918 421918 418919 416920 419921 422920 424918 424918 
 1.00 348764 345764 341766 338773 332783 321795 315800 309802 
      303803 296802 290801 282803 276803 268805 261810 257815 
      271832 277837 281843 289856 293860 298862 306862 309861 
      313858 317853 319847 323833 328820 331808 335801 338794 
      344783 347772 348764 
 1.50 484922 483916 481920 477924 473929 471933 469938 469944 
      468948 470948 472945 475942 478937 480932 482927 484922 
 1.50 327803 325801 321801 312805 304806 298805 289805 280806 
      273807 268809 265811 263814 263817 269824 273830 278835 
      282841 287849 292855 297859 301860 306859 310857 313854 
      317847 319838 321831 324823 326815 327807 327803 
 2.00 324812 321806 313808 306809 299808 293807 287808 273810 
      268815 271823 274829 278833 283838 286843 291851 295855 
      301858 307857 311852 315846 318833 322819 324812 
 3.00 317825 315817 314813 312812 301811 295810 291811 280813 
      275815 275822 278829 281832 285836 288841 295850 299853 
      303854 307852 310848 313837 317825 
 4.00 313827 311824 309821 309818 308815 306814 303814 298812 
      294812 283815 277817 278824 280829 286834 291842 299848 
      302848 306846 311839 313830 313827 
 5.00 310835 310829 307825 305820 302816 300815 296814 292815 
      285817 280819 280826 285830 289835 293841 297844 302844 
      306842 310835 310835 
 6.00 307836 307829 303824 302820 298816 295816 290818 285820 
      283824 284828 287830 289832 293838 295840 299842 303842 
      305839 307836 
 7.00 304837 304833 304830 302827 301824 300821 299820 298819 
      296818 293819 290819 288820 286824 286825 287827 289829 
      291832 293834 295837 298839 299840 302839 304837 304837 
 8.00 301831 300828 299825 298822 297821 294821 294820 291821 
      289822 289823 289826 290828 291828 293831 294831 296833 
      297836 298837 300835 300834 301831  
 
24HR QP VT 08/00Z
 0.01 518746 514730 513724 508723 500723 489729 477741 473744 
      468747 471736 472730 469723 463719 455720 451721 446724 
      434731 411748 403754 394758 385759 376761 373762 368761 
      365755 361751 345744 341742 336743 331747 329749 324766 
      311780 298794 289802 280806 277808 274803 270797 267795 
      262794 257794 252796 247799 244803 241812 241819 244824 
      248831 254838 260843 267847 274853 285868 292874 300878 
      306882 313884 321883 328883 332884 342886 348887 353886 
      361884 370880 373880 374883 369890 362898 357906 356910 
      357914 359917 361917 370912 386900 416875 434861 441854 
      448851 453846 460842 469835 477829 489820 497810 502800 
      504786 511777 515769 517761 518746 
 0.01 522267 519266 517263 517261 514258 511259 508259 505261 
      502261 499260 496264 495268 495272 496277 496278 498281 
      501284 501285 503287 506287 506286 508283 511280 513282 
      516283 
 0.01 536216 537211 537206 536205 534203 532200 531196 529194 
      529193 526192 525193 523195 522197 522202 525204 527208 
      528213 529216 531219 531221 533220 535217 536216 
 0.01 534171 534161 532147 531145 527143 523142 519139 515138 
      511140 506139 504142 503146 502152 502156 508161 513169 
      519172 524180 527180 530177 534171 
 0.01 532940 531929 529917 526912 521908 516904 511902 501893 
      497894 493897 488903 484908 481915 480923 480928 481933 
      484940 487946 491951 495958 499963 505965 513965 519962 
      527958 530952 531945 532940 
 0.01 509091 509086 508085 507082 506078 505077 503073 502072 
      500070 497069 494070 492072 491077 491081 491086 492090 
      493095 494097 494099 496102 499103 502103 505101 506100 
      508095 508094 509091 
 0.01 315960 314952 310946 305943 298943 291942 286940 280938 
      272938 260944 255948 250952 247956 243961 239972 234984 
      232990 233999 235016 237022 239028 243032 248036 254038 
      260040 266038 273035 278034 287033 292029 295023 300008 
      304997 309984 313970 315960 
 0.25 487777 487771 483768 476767 469771 461778 455783 448790 
      439802 435808 434813 435819 433826 429834 428843 433845 
      437843 445838 450833 458828 463823 470816 472808 475799 
      480792 484785 487777 
 0.25 393791 391787 388784 380781 369783 364782 361776 358763 
      355756 351754 346754 341756 338758 334762 330769 325779 
      320786 312795 306801 298808 290812 285814 280815 272814 
      268812 264810 261807 258803 254801 250802 246808 245813 
      246817 252823 259831 264834 271840 284854 296866 304872 
      313874 321874 333871 344867 354860 360854 367845 372836 
      378825 386809 391798 393791 
 0.25 286006 288997 287992 286987 280975 278960 275955 269954 
      265957 260963 255973 248983 246989 246998 248004 251010 
      259019 265021 271020 278017 283012 286006 
 0.50 381801 381795 378792 371791 362791 357785 355776 355767 
      353762 351760 348759 343761 338766 332772 329778 325787 
      319798 313804 305809 291815 284818 276820 268821 267827 
      269831 279843 297863 302867 308869 315870 324870 332867 
      341864 346859 352853 362841 370828 374822 377814 381801 
 0.50 280997 276991 273986 273983 272973 271968 268967 263972 
      259981 254985 252990 251994 253004 259010 262011 267012 
      275007 277005 280000 280997 
 1.00 373804 370799 364797 358796 351793 348767 344767 341769 
      336775 332783 331787 328802 325809 322811 318812 304815 
      296818 288821 282825 278829 281837 286843 293853 298859 
      302863 307865 314866 319866 328863 335860 341857 351847 
      360836 368823 372814 373808 373804 
 1.50 370806 367803 362802 351804 343807 338810 333814 327817 
      316817 307818 300819 294821 289824 286828 284832 287840 
      292849 298856 306862 310863 316863 326861 336856 341854 
      346849 352842 365823 369814 370806 
 1.50 345776 344775 342774 341775 340779 339779 339783 339785 
      338787 340788 342786 343785 344782 344781 345777 345776 
 2.00 367815 367809 363807 358808 353811 334819 326821 320820 
      312820 302821 296823 290827 288834 289840 292844 296851 
      300855 307860 313861 323859 332855 339851 343849 347845 
      356833 366819 367815 
 3.00 362821 362816 358816 350820 342824 334827 322826 309824 
      301825 293830 292835 294844 297849 303854 307856 313858 
      320856 329853 342846 347841 352836 360824 362821 
 4.00 355827 354826 351827 343830 332832 323830 311827 306827