FXUS04 KWBC 160727
QPFPFD
 
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
226 AM EST TUE NOV 16 2004
 
PRELIM DAY 1 AND DAY 2 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID NOV 17/1200 UTC THRU NOV 18/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
 
...TX AND EXTRM ERN NM...

THE MDLS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN PROGRESSING THE NRN OLD
MEXICO CLOSED MID/UPR LVL LOW INTO SWRN TX BY THE END OF THIS
PD..WITH THE SYS ALSO BCMG MORE NEG TILT WITH TIME.   XPC THE
COMBO OF SIGNIFICANT MID LVL DYNAMICS/HGT FALLS..AN INCREASINGLY 
FAVORABLE UPR DIFL PATN..AND PLENTY OF MSTR BEING AVBL ON
SUSTAINED SELY/SLY H85 INFLO..TO SUPPORT A CONTD WIDESPREAD HVY
TO EXCESSIVE RNFL EVENT FOR MUCH OF WRN AND CNTRL TX.  
CNVCTN/RAINS HAVE REALLY INCREASED PAST SVRL HRS OR SO OVR
SWRN TX..AND SEE NO REASON WHY THIS TREND OF AN EXPANDING AND
HVY RNFL PATN WL CHG THRU THIS PD..GIVEN THE DYNAMICS AND MSTR
WE'LL HAVE IN PLACE.    THE MDL QPFS AREN'T THAT DIFF..ALTHO I DID
LEAN TWDS A SLGTLY HVIER GFS QPF SOLN.    XPC WIDESPREAD GTR
THAN 1 INCH RAINS THIS PD MUCH OF WRN AND CNTRL TX..WITH SOME
GTR THAN 2 INCH TOTALS LIKELY IN THE HILL COUNTRY WHERE SELY
UPSLOPE FLO WL AID RNFL POTNL.    AS HAS ALSO BEEN THE CASE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS..XPC ANOTHER RNFL MAX ALG THE TX CST..THIS TIME
BTWN GLS AND CRP..IN REGION OF QSTNRY LOW LVL MSTR CNVGNC
MAX.   MANUAL QPF TOOK A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ETA QPFS..WITH THE
GFS HAVING ITS RNFL MAX A LTL FARTHER UP THE CST THAN THE ETA
QPF MAX.    SOME LCL 1-2 INCH RNFL TOTALS LIKELY VRY NR THE CST.

...OH VLY AND GTLKS...

A COUPLE OF FAST MOVG SYSTEMS MOVG OVR TOP OF AND DOWN THE E
SIDE OF THE RDG WL PRODUCE SOME RAIN IN THE OH VLY ERY THIS PD
AND IN THE GTLKS ON TUE NGT.   MAJORITY OF THE HIER MSTR WL RMN
JUST TO THE S AND W OF THESE FEATURES..SO BTWN THIS AND THE
RELATIVE FAST MOVEMENT OF THEM..SUSPECT THAT MOST OF THE RNFL
AMTS WL RMN ON THE LGT SIDE..LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES.

...PAC NW...

ANOTHER FAST MOVG S/WV WL MOV THRU B.C. AND THE PAC NW 1ST HALF
OF THIS PD..ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIEF PD OF SOMEWHAT STGR LOW LVL
ONSHORE FLO AND SOMEWHAT HIER PWS.   THIS SHLD BRING SOME
GENLY LGT TO LCLY MDT RAINS TO THE OLYMPICS AND NRN
CASCADES..WITH SOME HIER ELEV SNOWS IN BOTH PLACES.   THE ETA
AND GFS QPFS WERE VRY SIMILAR HERE AND FOLLOWED THEM CLOSELY.
 
 
DAY 2...

UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS SRN TX THIS PERIOD WILL SPREAD A WIDE
AREA OF RAINFALL AHEAD OF IT WITH PERSISTENT INFLOW OF GULF
MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A SFC TROF.  THE ETA AND GFS ARE ACTUALLY
NOT TOO TERRIBLY DIFFERENT IN THAT THEY BOTH SHOW SIGNIFICANT
QPF MAX OVER SERN TX EXTENDING NWWD INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. 
THE MOISTURE STREAMING NWD WILL INTERCEPT A FRONT SINKING
THROUGH N-CNTRL KS PRODUCING A SECONDARY MAX THERE.  THIS SAME
FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO A
WIDESPREAD AREA OF VERY LIGHT RAINFALL FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC IN THE SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT.

ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...FOLLOWED THE PREFERRED
SLOWER ETA SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS THE HEAVIEST AMTS ALONG THE
WA COAST AT LESS THAN .25 INCH.

TERRY/MAUSSER

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
 
24HR QP VT 17/12Z
 0.01 536216 538207 538200 538186 533180 531171 521158 518154 
      513153 509149 502144 498143 495140 492135 486130 481128 
      477128 473128 471129 468138 462140 455145 450151 446158 
      443166 444173 443179 438185 436193 439198 445203 445198 
      445192 447191 452193 458176 457173 457168 463168 469169 
      473169 477170 480173 485178 490184 494192 496195 499198 
      504198 507199 513204 518214 524219 528221 532220 536216 
 0.01 518278 520271 521266 522254 521247 518239 512226 508219 
      505215 495203 490199 487198 484199 478202 474206 469209 
      464212 461216 458219 459224 463228 461233 455239 451242 
      443248 440251 439254 437264 439268 443269 444277 447280 
      452279 457276 467270 477266 497286 505290 510287 515282 
      518278 
 0.01 474224 472222 469222 468222 466224 463225 465228 468227 
      471228 474224 474224 
 0.01 460890 459882 456876 453867 449853 446840 446835 444832 
      442830 439829 434831 428837 422845 414860 410869 408877 
      407883 407887 406893 407899 410906 413908 420910 430907 
      432908 430912 428917 429923 433926 437925 445920 449918 
      453914 456911 458906 458895 460890 
 0.01 451222 451221 448219 446218 443218 440218 438218 437218 
      434218 431219 429219 428220 426223 427225 430226 432227 
      435227 438227 440227 441226 444226 447226 449225 451222 
      451222 
 0.01 404830 403821 400814 393809 389807 384809 378816 373835 
      372845 374857 375863 376870 375881 373903 368921 363939 
      359950 355957 349964 345966 340968 335967 332966 326962 
      319957 313952 310948 307944 305934 303928 301924 296918 
      293916 288916 278926 268942 261955 257970 257989 259998 
      259005 258013 257021 256030 250046 250057 254060 260062 
      268062 286062 295062 304062 309063 314062 324062 331064 
      337064 343064 348062 355060 364061 369062 372060 375056 
      377050 377043 376032 373018 374008 376000 380992 384985 
      387975 386964 384954 384944 386932 390909 394891 396879 
      400863 402852 403843 404830 
 0.01 274802 273799 272797 271797 268796 265796 264797 263797 
      262801 264803 265804 268804 269804 271804 273803 274802 
 0.25 530204 530199 529194 527188 525183 523178 519174 513172 
      510172 507174 508184 510189 514193 516198 519202 524206 
      527207 530204 
 0.25 516267 515254 513245 510234 504226 500217 498212 494209 
      489208 484208 478212 489227 489233 487236 483238 481235 
      477231 473233 469240 468245 470250 479256 481258 483263 
      491270 498278 504282 507283 511277 516268 516267 
 0.25 332046 351043 355038 357033 358028 357018 356006 354998 
      350992 325981 319976 314972 309967 306962 300944 297935 
      293929 291929 288931 286934 282939 278944 274951 272957 
      270964 269980 268998 268008 270016 272024 272029 271034 
      271040 274045 281049 290049 307048 332046 
 0.50 512261 512255 510248 506236 501228 496215 493213 491213 
      485213 485215 489220 492225 493230 494236 496242 498246 
      495247 489244 485246 482249 484254 487260 495266 501269 
      504267 512261 
 0.50 479243 479239 478238 476236 474237 475242 475243 477244 
      479243 
 0.50 349027 350016 348010 345003 341999 331991 322986 312979 
      305971 302962 300956 298948 296941 291936 287940 283945 
      280950 278955 276962 276968 276976 275983 273989 272997 
      273004 274009 275013 278018 280023 280031 280037 281041 
      285043 291044 299044 313042 327040 335039 340037 346034 
      349029 349027 
 1.00 340011 338007 334006 330005 327002 323996 317993 306985 
      299979 296977 292977 288980 284985 279991 277998 278006 
      283012 289017 292024 292030 293033 296035 301035 306034 
      312032 330028 334026 337022 338014 340011 
 1.00 295950 294945 292943 290943 287945 284951 283956 283959 
      283962 284964 286967 288968 291968 293967 295964 296960 
      295955 295950 
 1.50 295015 303017 307019 312018 315019 321021 324020 324017 
      322016 317014 313010 312007 310002 308997 306992 303989 
      298986 293985 289987 283993 281997 281003 286009 290012 
      295015 
 1.50 287954 286958 287960 288962 290962 291960 292958 292951 
      291949 288951 287954 
 2.00 289004 293005 296005 298003 299001 301998 302995 301993 
      298991 295989 292990 288993 287993 285995 284997 284000 
      286002 286003 289004  
 
24HR QP VT 18/12Z
 0.01 502769 503741 498717 489707 472709 456716 449720 443725 
      436733 430739 427743 421748 415753 408756 402758 392763 
      388766 384772 377781 371791 362811 355835 355842 355848 
      358853 362857 369862 378871 385878 390881 398880 407874 
      419869 428869 432871 438874 443881 449889 457896 463894 
      465889 467883 468876 469866 470857 473855 476854 482852 
      489847 494837 497824 499804 499792 501776 502769 
 0.01 535225 535216 534211 536200 535191 532182 528171 523163 
      514154 500144 492136 484130 478130 478138 480146 476150 
      471154 473159 478162 483162 488161 498181 507200 509207 
      509212 505213 500212 493213 485218 478221 469224 453228 
      444232 437235 433242 432246 434253 439260 449267 455271 
      461274 465277 473283 478288 481293 486301 493307 499308 
      503305 510298 
 0.01 438951 439943 438936 437929 435922 430912 424906 417902 
      410899 403897 397897 392897 387900 384907 383914 384921 
      383932 382942 379950 376956 372959 366959 361956 355953 
      341945 318927 308916 301912 295909 289905 282905 276909 
      271914 264926 257942 251952 248959 246965 243983 244992 
      246995 249995 258995 265996 271999 277002 292006 308011 
      316013 322015 326020 330028 334036 338043 350054 356059 
      363063 369068 372074 374081 378083 381079 382076 381071 
      379068 380066 382065 391068 395068 400064 406049 415036 
      420027 425017 427008 430998 433980 437964 438951 
 0.01 285804 284801 281800 281799 278799 275798 272799 269799 
      267800 264802 264803 265806 266809 267810 269811 270811 
      273811 276810 279810 281809 284807 285804 
 0.25 502285 508288 514284 518274 519263 517257 513249 510245 
      506244 504248 502246 497245 492245 488252 487256 488260 
      491269 494277 497281 502285 
 0.25 419971 419960 417951 415944 411939 406937 403939 397952 
      395957 391961 381970 376973 372975 365977 359977 354976 
      350973 341965 334958 327950 311932 304926 297921 292919 
      285919 280922 276927 272935 268945 264956 261968 262975 
      264978 273984 282989 294992 303995 313999 322004 327007 
      332009 338011 342014 350020 360034 369041 376041 383041 
      389039 398032 406023 412014 415008 417002 419994 419989 
      419983 419971 
 0.50 506273 503270 500268 498269 499274 499275 502278 506278 
      506273 
 0.50 409992 409984 408978 408971 404968 397970 393972 387976 
      382980 371986 367988 363991 361995 362000 364005 369011 
      373014 378017 382018 391016 396014 399011 407000 409992 
 0.50 342990 341982 339975 335967 322950 315942 309935 302929 
      295925 289925 285928 279935 275945 272954 269964 268968 
      269973 272977 276979 284982 292986 302988 307990 312993 
      319998 322999 329000 335999 338996 341993 342990 
 1.00 325975 325970 324966 320959 313949 305939 299934 294933 
      290934 287937 284943 280954 279963 279969 283975 289976 
      295979 299982 306984 312985 317986 321986 322982 325975 
 1.50 317970 316963 315960 309951 304944 301940 297938 294937 
      291939 287946 286956 285962 287967 294970 297973 300978 
      303980 308979 316973 317970 
 2.00 313967 312963 310961 306955 303949 299944 295941 292942 
      290945 290952 290957 291960 293964 296965 299966 301969 
      305972 310970 313967  
 
$$