FXUS04 KWBC 200657
QPFPFD
 
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
257 AM EDT TUE APR 20 2004
 
PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID APR 20/1200 UTC THRU APR 21/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
 
     
DAY1...

...CNTRL PLAINS/MID MS VLY NEWD INTO THE GTLKS AND OH VLY...

STILL A SOMEWHAT TOUGH AND LOW CONFIDENCE FCST THIS PD..PARTLY
BECAUSE OF A LACK OF AGREEMENT BTWN THE MDLS QPF-WISE AND
PARTLY BECAUSE THE PATN IS SOMEWHAT CHAOTIC..AT LEAST ERY
ON..WITH 3 STREAMS OF S/WV ENERGY.    ALREADY ON MON NGT/ERY TUE
MRNG..CNVCTN IS FIRING IN THE WRM SECTOR ACRS KS AND OK..TRIGGERED
BY A S/WV IN THE SUBTROP STREAM..WITH CNVCTN IN THE HI PLAINS OF
WRN KS AND NE BEING TRIGGERED BY A S/WV IN THE SRN BRANCH.   
ADDITIONALLY..THERE IS ANOTHER S/WV IN THE NRN BRANCH NOW
ENTERING PTNS OF THE GT BASIN AND ROCKIES..WHICH ACCORDING TO ALL
OF THE MDLS WL BCM THE PREDOMINANT SYS LTR TUE AFTN AND NGT..AS
IT REACHES THE UPR MS VLY/WRN GTLKS BY WED MRNG.    AHD OF THIS
NRN STREAM S/WV..SFC LOW PRES DEEPENS RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY..WHICH
WL PULL WRMFNT NNEWD DURG THE PD.    LOW LVL WAA/MSTR ADVECTION
AHD OF THE WKR SRN STREAM S/WVS AND ESP THE STGR NRN STREAM SYS
WL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RAINS/CNVCTN MUCH OF THE CNTRL PLAINS/MID
MS VLY NEWD INTO THE GTLKS AND OH VLY.    LTR TUE AFTN AND
NGT..CDFNTL CNVGNC AND SOME HGT FALLS SHLD SUPPORT ORGANIZED
CNVCTN FM THE MID MS VLY SSWWD INTO AR/ERN OK..WITH ONLY THE ETA
MDL SEEMINGLY DOING A GOOD JOB HERE.    THINGS SHLD BE PROGRESSIVE
ENUF THAT MOST OF THE RNFL AMTS SHLD BE ON THE MDT SIDE..BUT
COMBO OF OVRRNG CNVCTN ERY IN THE PD AND CDFNTL CNVCTN LTR ON
COULD LEAD TO SOME HVY RAINS PTNS OF IL INTO ERN MO..MORE IN LN
WITH
THE ETA QPF SOLN.

...WRN STATES...

THE STG MID/UPR LVL SYS OFF VRISL IS FCST BY THE MDLS TO REACH THE
PAC NW LT IN THE PD.   ALTHO THE REALLY DEEP MSTR IS WELL S OF
THIS
SYS..AND WL NOT BE PULLED INLAND..THERE WL BE ENUF MID LVL
DYNAMICS
AND SUSTAINED MODEST LOW LVL ONSHORE FLO TO STILL SUPPORT SOME
LGT TO MDT RAINS WRN WA AND WRN OR..WITH A PREFERENCE TWDS
THE SLGTLY WETTER GFS QPF.   FARTHER E..LEAD S/WV MOVG THRU THE
NRN GT BASIN INTO THE NRN ROCKIES WL TRIGGER SOME LGT TO MDT PCPN
MTNS OF NRN/CNTRL ID INTO WRN MT..WRN WY AND NRN UT.   AGAIN..WENT
WITH THE SLGTLY HVIER GFS QPF SOLN HERE ALSO.

TERRY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
 
24HR QP VT 21/12Z
 0.01 539207 539191 538186 536180 529170 523158 493130 484125 
      477122 475119 475115 483111 490107 493105 496105 499101 
      497090 493081 488070 483062 480059 474058 468059 464059 
      461056 458045 456036 458032 461032 465030 468026 472019 
      475009 478999 483991 488984 496977 505962 512949 517934 
      520913 513888 504872 492853 475822 466802 458792 449783 
      444777 437769 428762 414753 399746 391743 377747 370754 
      366764 362772 357780 354789 353800 354804 357818 361828 
      365841 368855 369865 369875 366882 362889 357895 337921 
      333928 330936 330943 331950 337959 340963 345965 351964 
      362961 368960 370963 373971 373982 374986 379988 387990 
      397997 410006 424015 432021 435025 439031 443041 442046 
      439048 435049 430050 426052 424060 427069 436075 441080 
      445083 444088 441088 432085 430083 425082 423085 422088 
      423092 425096 421098 418095 416091 411088 405090 400092 
      396097 392106 386113 383119 384125 390127 393129 404140 
      398143 396147 395153 394163 394172 402185 403190 404193 
      402197 394196 388195 383196 379200 377209 376213 373218 
      371222 370228 374239 376243 378244 384249 393253 410260 
      433265 458271 477279 490287 495290 500290 509288 513285 
      516278 521266 521256 519251 516242 512232 508221 504214 
      502210 503204 504200 510200 515206 518210 520215 524215 
      532219 539207 
 0.01 489193 486188 482185 477183 471181 467183 464187 461192 
      459198 460203 465205 468204 474202 478200 481200 486196 
      489193 
 0.01 418076 418072 416068 416064 415063 412063 410063 407063 
      404063 402064 401065 398067 397068 395071 395072 395076 
      395077 396079 398081 401082 404082 407081 410080 411080 
      412079 415078 418076 
 0.25 508278 511273 513266 512256 508239 503230 500223 496217 
      491213 485207 481206 477206 467209 458210 452213 448214 
      440214 434214 426212 422218 420219 416217 403209 396210 
      399215 404220 407225 409232 406237 406241 409245 414249 
      420250 426250 432249 441250 455253 464256 472260 478265 
      482268 490275 496279 502281 508279 508278 
 0.25 501173 501168 498163 491157 485152 477147 469143 465142 
      461144 456147 454148 449148 445146 442145 440149 438152 
      440161 445169 446179 441188 440194 443198 446200 452194 
      456185 462178 464174 468171 474172 489180 494181 497180 
      501173 
 0.25 442986 454990 460989 466984 469977 471965 471956 469948 
      472942 479934 484925 484912 479895 476880 472861 465842 
      457827 452820 448814 443811 439809 435808 430808 426810 
      422818 421823 419831 417836 414841 409846 406848 402848 
      397846 392839 384829 377821 373822 372826 373831 374837 
      377849 379864 379877 378883 376890 370902 363913 357921 
      350931 348937 347946 348950 351951 354950 363945 367942 
      375940 378947 381955 383964 387969 396974 400975 408975 
      413976 421978 433983 442986 
 0.25 454114 453109 450107 441104 438108 432109 423109 415110 
      411110 409114 411118 414121 420125 426122 432118 438114 
      442114 446116 451116 454114 
 0.25 402776 398771 394772 393777 396780 399783 402783 404781 
      402776 
 0.50 500275 502272 504267 502260 497251 492243 488239 486238 
      482236 480233 477230 474230 470231 467233 463231 462228 
      464225 467223 471222 474222 477219 478212 472213 455217 
      448219 445219 443219 441221 439224 441227 445229 447232 
      445234 442235 439236 437237 436240 440243 447244 453245 
      461247 466250 471253 478258 487265 495272 500275 
 0.50 490171 487167 484163 481160 476156 473154 469149 465147 
      462152 462157 464160 470161 472163 478166 481169 486172 
      490171 
 0.50 468893 461883 456884 451891 451904 455915 458918 463921 
      470920 474915 474905 468893 
 0.50 463859 462854 461850 460846 459843 458842 456844 456845 
      454849 455853 456857 457861 460864 462862 463859 
 0.50 444927 440921 436912 432903 431886 433875 434861 431853 
      425855 419860 411863 402865 396865 392868 389877 386885 
      383895 378905 370915 362929 358935 357940 360940 364939 
      367937 372933 377932 380935 383941 386946 388952 392959 
      397961 404960 412955 418950 421944 426932 429927 434931 
      434944 435954 437963 442969 451974 459972 461962 455947 
      450938 444927 
 1.00 496264 495259 493253 491248 486244 483243 482240 479235 
      476233 473233 470237 472241 474244 480247 483249 488254 
      490258 494263 496264 
 1.00 414891 413885 410879 407878 403884 400888 395891 390895 
      387901 385908 382915 383921 386925 391928 395926 397923 
      400919 403910 410905 414901 414891  
 
$$