AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ                                             
1018 AM MST SUN OCT 5 2008                                                      
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA                  
FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                             
.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.                                          
&&                                                                              
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
AFTER LAST NIGHTS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED EAST OF THE                   
AREA...HIGH PRESSURE AND A CLEARING TREND IS NOW TAKING OVER.                   
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE DESERTS TODAY.                        
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER TODAY AT MOST LOCATIONS                  
THOUGH STILL BELOW NORMAL. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TREND CAN BE              
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM               
THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH            
MANY LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS...INCLUDING THE PHOENIX AREA                        
APPROACHING OR EVEN REACHING 100 DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.                
THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL COOLING TREND IS ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE            
WEAKENS.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED ALONG A PAGE-SHOW LOW-TUCSON LINE AT              
MID MORNING WITH A FEW REMNANT SHOWERS TRACKING THROUGH THE WHITE               
MOUNTAINS. IT WAS AN ACTIVE NIGHT...WITH MUCH MORE PRECIP IN EASTERN            
AZ THAN I HAD EXPECTED. IN FACT...SHOW LOW HAD .88 INCH AND                     
ROOSEVELT CAME OUT ON TOP WITH A WHOPPING 1.20 INCHES FROM OVERNIGHT            
THUNDERSTORMS. RUC SEEMED TO HAVE VERY GOOD MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY            
TRENDS...WITH THE VORT MAX TRYING TO SPLIT INTO TWO PARTS BY 18Z AS             
IT APPROACHED THE AZ/NEW MEXICO LINE. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS               
ALSO FORECAST...AND GFS/NAM APPEAR TO AGREE WITH EACH OTHER MUCH                
BETTER. THEREFORE...SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...OR CUTBACKS IN POPS                
WERE NECESSARY EARLIER TODAY. TEMPS STILL LOOK GOOD AND GUIDANCE                
SHOWS SIMILAR WARMING TRENDS AS BEFORE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.                
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...TEMPS WILL GET TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL             
ONCE AGAIN. IN FACT MANY LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS INCLUDING THE                
PHOENIX AREA WILL GET VERY CLOSE TO...IF NOT REACH...100 DEGREES                
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...THE PROGS ARE DEPICTING                    
A WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE. HOWEVER...THERE ARE VERY DIFFERENT                    
SCENARIOS WHEN COMPARING THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF. THE GFS                 
PASSES A TROUGH WELL TO THE NORTH WHEREAS THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A DEEP             
CLOSED LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS MUCH            
CLOSER TO THE OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTION THOUGH IT HAS A TROUGH AXIS              
FURTHER TO THE WEST. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE OUT               
OF PHASE WITH ONE ANOTHER AS THE GFS HAS A RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR              
WEST AND THE ECMWF HAS A DEEP LOW CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT              
BASIN AND SOUTHERN IDAHO. THE 00Z ECMWF DOES NOT TRACK THE LOW AS               
FAR SOUTH AS THE 12Z RUN. GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS NATURE OF THE                     
ECMWF...LEANING TOWARD THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THUS SHOW A MORE               
GRADUAL COOLING TREND DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED.                   
INTERESTINGLY...BOTH MODELS ARE MUCH CLOSER TO ONE ANOTHER IN HOW               
THEY DEPICT A TROPICAL STORM MOVING INTO SOUTHERN BAJA MEXICO.                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
KPHX AND KIWA...                                                                
SKIES HAVE CLEARED FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH ONLY A FEW MID-LEVEL                
CLOUDS PERSISTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MUCH LESS WIND EXPECTED                
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WITH DIRECTIONS FAVORING THE WEST ALL DAY.              
TYPICAL DIURNAL WINDS WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT.                                    
KYUM/KIPL AND KBLH...MUCH LESS WIND EXPECTED TODAY AS COMPARED TO               
SATURDAY...WITH DIRECTIONS FAVORING THE WEST THRU NORTH. SPEEDS                 
SHOULD GENLY BE 5-15KT. BY EARLY EVE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AND                  
BECOME LARGELY LIGHT VARIABLE OR DIURNAL...AGAIN TENDING TO FAVOR               
THE NW TO N. GENLY CLEAR SKIES ON TAP NEXT 24 HOURS AT LEAST.                   
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...                                                     
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DOMINATE THE REST OF THE WEEK...BRINGING            
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE REGION. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND DRIER                  
CONDITIONS...WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING BELOW 15 PERCENT             
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE               
WEEKEND. DECENT RECOVERY EXPECTED EACH NIGHT...WITH MAX RH VALUES               
RISING TO BETWEEN 30 AND 50 PERCENT. NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER                
ISSUES EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.                                              
&&                                                                              
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AZ...NONE.                                                                      
CA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT                          
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX                                                             
DISCUSSION...SIPPLE                                                             
AVIATION...ROGERS/CB                                                            
FIRE WEATHER...CB                                                               
</pre> az                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
317 PM MDT SUN OCT 5 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TONIGHT AND MONDAY)                                                            
UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH STRONG SHORT              
WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IN SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO EJECTING            
INTO WESTERN TX. SURFACE LOW HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY BETWEEN             
KPUB AND KCOS...WITH REGIONAL RADAR LOOP INDICATING CONVECTION                  
BREAKING OUT ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM KCOS NORTHEAST TO NEAR KMCK              
AS OF 20Z. BEST UPWARD MOTION HAS SHIFTED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE                 
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF               
CONVECTION UNDER THE COLD POOL OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WILL LET WINTER              
WEATHER ADVISORY DIE AT 3 PM AS THREAT OF WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING               
SNOW HAS ENDED...THOUGH BE A FEW BURSTS OF BRIEF HEAVY SNOW ABOVE               
11K FEET ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET. ATTENTION THIS EVENING THROUGH            
MONDAY TURNS TO THE EASTERN PLAINS...AS UPPER LOW SLOWLY CLOSES OFF             
OVER WESTERN KS EARLY MONDAY. BOTH RUC AND NAM SUGGEST SURFACE LOW              
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH COLD FRONT               
MAKING A RATHER WEAK PUSH TO SOMEWHERE SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER              
BY 06Z. FRONT THEN ACCELERATES SOUTHWARD MONDAY MORNING...WITH                  
INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS DURING THE DAY.            
BEST UPWARD MOTION OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR                 
APPEARS TO BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY                 
NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE MOISTURE DEEPENS AND WINDS                  
BECOME AT LEAST WEAKLY UPSLOPE. ISENTROPIC LIFT WRAPS AROUND THE LOW            
MONDAY MORNING...WHICH SHOULD KEEP PRECIP GOING OVER THE FAR EASTERN            
PLAINS FROM ROUGHLY 06Z-18Z...THOUGH STRONGEST LIFT IS NORTH AND                
EAST OF THE AREA. OVERALL TREND OF THE GRIDS LOOKED GOOD...MAIN                 
CHANGES WERE TO END PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST SLIGHTLY FASTER                    
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.  PETERSEN                                           
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)                                                   
...ANOTHER POTENTIAL SYSTEM SETTING UP FOR NEXT WEEKEND...                      
MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING EAST ACROSS            
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MON EVE...ALLOWING FOR COLD DRY AIR TO SWEEP              
ACROSS THE CWA MON NIGHT. RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES COULD MAKE FOR A               
COLD NIGHT WITH PATCHY FROST ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE AND LOWER                 
ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY. ONLY OTHER THING TO NOTE WILL BE BRISK N                 
WINDS OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS DUE TO WRAPAROUND WHICH SHOULD                
DIMINISH AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.                                                 
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKY MT REGION             
FOR TUE THRU THUR AS A FLAT RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE DESERT SW.                    
ESSENTIALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH THE WEEK.               
GFS AND ECMWF IS HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL OF SOME PCPN ACROSS THE E             
PLAINS THU...DUE TO SFC HIGH PRES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL                
PLAINS AND BACKDOORING INTO CO. FOR NOW INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND               
MIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY THU NIGHT AND HELD OFF INTRODUCING ANY POPS...BUT            
THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR MODEL CONSISTENCY. ON FRI THE                  
NEXT UPPER TROUGH DROPS DOWN INTO MT...DIPPING INTO WY BY FRI EVE.              
IF THE TIMING AND POSITION IS FORECAST CORRECTLY...THIS WILL MEAN               
A WARM DAY FOR MUCH OF THE CWA AS SW WINDS ALOFT INCREASE AND                   
ASSOC PCPN STAYS NORTH OF COLORADO THRU THE DAY. CURRENT POP GRIDS              
HAVE ISOLATED POPS OVER THE CENT MTS IN THE AFTN...THEN ISOLATED                
POPS ALL AREAS FRI NIGHT. FOR NOW THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...BUT WILL              
GET ADJUSTED AS THE EVENT NEARS.                                                
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ECMWF AND GFS LONG RANGE MODELS ARE STILL                 
UNCERTAIN ON HOW TO HANDLE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM...SO FORECAST                  
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. FEEL CONFIDENT IN SAYING THAT NEXT WEEKEND WILL              
FEEL MORE LIKE FALL WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS...BUT PCPN TYPE AND                  
AMOUNTS ARE STILL UP IN THE AIR. MOORE                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SURFACE BOUNDARY LIES BETWEEN KCOS AND KPUB AT 21Z...AND SHOULD SINK            
SLOWLY SOUTH TO SOUTH OF KPUB AROUND 00Z. WINDOW FOR TSRA AT KCOS               
SHOULD RUN FROM ABOUT 22Z THROUGH 04Z...AND FROM 00Z THROUGH 05Z AT             
KPUB. STILL SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT BOTH SITES INTO EARLY             
MONDAY MORNING...WITH ANY PRECIP SHIFTING EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR             
AFTER 12Z. MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY LIMITED...SO ONLY VERY BRIEF MVFR            
CONDITIONS AT WORST WITH ANY CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.             
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THIS                          
AFTERNOON...THOUGH WEB CAMS SUGGEST OBSCURATION OF HIGHER TERRAIN IS            
RATHER PATCHY. EXPECT MOST CONVECTION TO DIE OUT AFTER SUNSET OVER              
ALONG AND WEST OF THE SANGRES...INCLUDING KALS...WHILE THICKER                  
CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS WILL HANG OVER THE SAWATCH AND MOSQUITO                 
RANGES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.                                            
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
10/27                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
927 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
AN AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST                
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CHILLY MORNINGS AND                      
INCREASINGLY WARMER AFTERNOONS ACROSS THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AND                
WEDNESDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON                         
THURSDAY...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS.                               
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...                                      
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOW WELL EAST OF THE REGION ACROSS THE GULF               
OF MAINE...ALLOWING FOR RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO SHIFT                 
TOWARDS OUR REGION. LATEST SATELLITE PICTURE SHOWS CLEAR SKIES CWA              
WIDE AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS ACCORDING TO H20 LOOP AS WELL.         
THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RAPIDLY FALL IN MOST AREAS THIS                
EVENING. BOUNDARY LAYER IS JUST A BIT MORE MOIST THAN MODELS HAVE               
PROJECTED...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO BRIEFLY                    
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT USUAL SUSPECT PLACES. HOWEVER...00Z ALY                    
SOUNDING SHOWS A HIGH INVERSION HEIGHT /AROUND 800 MB/ WITH ABOUT               
20 KTS OF WIND FROM JUST ABOVE THE DECK UP TO THE INVERSION LEVEL.              
WOULD THINK THAT THIS COULD HELP MIX AIR SOMEWHAT ENOUGH TO                     
PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD FOG FROM DEVELOPING TONIGHT. WITH WEAK CAA               
CURRENTLY ONGOING...WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF TDS CONTINUED TO DROP              
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AS WELL. AT THIS POINT...WILL               
LEAVE FORECASTED MINS ALONE AND ONLY DO A MINOR UPDATE TO ACCOUNT               
FOR CURRENT TRENDS. ACCORDINGLY...WILL CONTINUE CURRENT                         
FREEZE/FROST HEADLINES AS IS...SEEING NO NEED TO MESS WITH THEM AT              
THIS TIME.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...                          
NOT SO SURE HOW COLD IT WILL GET TUESDAY NIGHT. MAV GUIDANCE BY FAR             
THE COLDEST AND BELIEVE THAT IS OVERDONE. WARMING WILL BE OCCURRING             
ALOFT WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM TO 8 TO 10 DEGREES              
CELSIUS BY 12Z/WEDNESDAY. PLUS SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY REACH THE             
REGION. SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF REGION AND WINDS WILL BE  LIGHT              
AND VARIABLE. WHERE GROWING SEASON DOES NOT END TONIGHT WILL NEED               
FREEZE WARNINGS AND/OR FROST ADVISORIES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.                      
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST WEDNESDAY AND             
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN            
TO MODERATE. AFTER A COLD START TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO ABOVE              
NORMAL LEVELS. HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN AHEAD OF A FRONTAL              
BOUNDARY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. MODEL                  
SOLUTIONS REALLY BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY THURSDAY. EXPECT ANOTHER MILD              
DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR             
SHOWERS.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...                                   
AROUND THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE               
NORTHERN STREAM WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. HAVE TAPERED             
OFF POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE BEST FORCING WILL BE MOVING EAST              
OF THE REGION. MIN TEMPS WILL BE HELD SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL            
NORMALS AS THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HELP             
KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH.                                              
THE WEEKEND PERIOD IS NOT BEING HANDLED TOO WELL BY THE MODELS AT               
THIS POINT. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BEEN HOLDING STEADY ON THEIR            
VARIOUS PATTERNS FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW. THE GFS IS DETERMINED TO                 
BRING A CUTOFF NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AND UP THE               
ATLANTIC COAST FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WOULD BRING AN AREA OF SHOWERS             
TO THE REGION FOR SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.                    
MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT             
THE SURFACE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...WHICH                 
WOULD SPREAD EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND...KEEPING THE CUTOFF                     
SUPPRESSED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WILL TEND TO FAVOR THE ECMWF                   
SOLUTION...WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM BOTH THE 12Z UKMET AND 12Z GGEM.              
STILL...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY AND TO PRESERVE SOME                     
CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS...WILL STILL HOLD LOW CHC POPS               
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA OVER               
THE WEEKEND. WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AS STRONG             
RIDGING DEPICTED BY ECMWF WOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO AVERAGE WARMER               
THAN SEASONAL NORMALS.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
TRICKY CALL ON VSBYS OVERNIGHT...ESP OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS...AS               
TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE NEARING ZERO F ALREADY AT KGFL...AND ARE              
WITHIN 3F AT KALB. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY            
WORK DOWNWARD LATER THIS EVENING...LIMITING OVERALL GROUND FOG                  
POTENTIAL TO EARLY THIS EVENING. AS SUCH...HAVE ONLY INDICATED A                
BRIEF TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR VSBY AT KGFL...WITH NO REDUCTIONS                     
ELSEWHERE. THIS SEEMS TO BE SUPPORTED BY LATEST RUC13...WHICH                   
DEPICTS DRYING AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE NEXT 2-4               
HOURS...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN WINDS UP TO 20-30KT AT 90MB AGL.              
SHOULD THESE WINDS FAIL TO DEVELOP...A MORE PROLONGED AND WIDESPREAD            
GROUND FOG EVENT MAY OCCUR AT KGFL AND KALB...BUT CURRENT THINKING              
IS THAT THIS IS ONLY A SMALL POSSIBILITY.                                       
VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGHOUT TUE.                                
WINDS WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY...AT LESS             
THAN 5 KT TONIGHT...THEN 5-10 KT ON TUE. LOCAL VARIATIONS IN WIND               
DIRECTION ARE POSSIBLE TUE AFTERNOON DUE TO TOPOGRAPHICAL                       
INFLUENCES...ESP AT KGFL...WHICH MAY BECOME NORTHEAST TO EAST AT                
TIMES.                                                                          
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
TUE-WED...VFR...NO SIG WX.                                                      
THU-SAT...VFR/MVFR...CHC SHOWERS.                                               
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AND            
WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN             
TO MODERATE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO OUR              
SOUTHEAST AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARMER AIR DEVELOPS.                          
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL RECOVER TO 90 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT                    
TONIGHT AND DROP TO MINIMUMS OF 30 TO 40 TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT               
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TONIGHT INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 MPH TUESDAY                   
THEN DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING.                                                
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. COOL                   
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AND WILL            
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO               
MODERATE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO OUR                 
SOUTHEAST AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARMER AIR DEVELOPS. OUR NEXT                 
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL COME LATE IN THE WEEK WHEN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY             
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.                                          
FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC                
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.                                
&&                                                                              
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.                      
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ038>043-047-048-              
     051-054-061-063-066-083-084.                                               
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-053-              
     059-060-064-065.                                                           
MA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MAZ025.                          
VT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR VTZ014-015.                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS                                                               
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS                                                              
SHORT TERM...IAA                                                                
LONG TERM...FRUGIS                                                              
AVIATION...KL                                                                   
FIRE WEATHER...IAA                                                              
HYDROLOGY...IAA                                                                 
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
737 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AND            
WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY               
MORNINGS WILL START OUT COLD. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE               
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND            
A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARMER AIR DEVELOPS.                                        
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...                                      
AS OF 730 PM EDT...DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DROP WITHIN THE                  
VALLEYS...AND ARE SLOWLY DROPPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS THE            
DRIER AIR WORKS DOWNWARD IN ELEVATION. WE EXPECT THE DEWPOINTS TO               
GRADUALLY LOWER OVER THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS...AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE                  
CONTINUES IN THE WAKE OF POTENT SHORTWAVE PASSING TO OUR S/E. IN                
ADDITION...RUC13 DEPICTS WINDS STRENGTHENING AT THE TOP OF THE                  
BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WHICH SHOULD HELP                  
ENTRAIN THE DRIER AIR DOWNWARD A BIT LATER TONIGHT. UNTIL                       
THEN...SOME PATCHY FOG COULD BRIEFLY DEVELOP.                                   
RIDGE FINALLY BUILDS IN AT ALL LEVELS LATER TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT                
N-NW FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF RIDGE. COLD POOL SHIFTS TO THE EAST               
WITH TROUGH AXIS. WEAK WARMING OCCURS ALOFT LATER TONIGHT. MOS                  
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TONIGHT...WILL BE A COLD               
ONE. BLENDED THE FORECAST LOWS INHERITED WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE             
WHICH RESULTED IN MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...A TAD WARMER IN SOME LOCALES.             
HOWEVER...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO CURRENT FREEZE WARNINGS AND FROST                
ADVISORIES. THE GROWING SEASON SHOULD END ACROSS MUCH OF THE                    
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE HUDSON VALLEY UP TO THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL            
DISTRICT AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL JUST                 
SHORT OF REACHING THE FREEZING MARK.                                            
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...                          
NOT SO SURE HOW COLD IT WILL GET TUESDAY NIGHT. MAV GUIDANCE BY FAR             
THE COLDEST AND BELIEVE THAT IS OVERDONE. WARMING WILL BE OCCURRING             
ALOFT WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM TO 8 TO 10 DEGREES              
CELSIUS BY 12Z/WEDNESDAY. PLUS SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY REACH THE             
REGION. SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF REGION AND WINDS WILL BE  LIGHT              
AND VARIABLE. WHERE GROWING SEASON DOES NOT END TONIGHT WILL NEED               
FREEZE WARNINGS AND/OR FROST ADVISORIES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.                      
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST WEDNESDAY AND             
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN            
TO MODERATE. AFTER A COLD START TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO ABOVE              
NORMAL LEVELS. HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN AHEAD OF A FRONTAL              
BOUNDARY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. MODEL                  
SOLUTIONS REALLY BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY THURSDAY. EXPECT ANOTHER MILD              
DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR             
SHOWERS.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...                                   
AROUND THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE               
NORTHERN STREAM WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. HAVE TAPERED             
OFF POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE BEST FORCING WILL BE MOVING EAST              
OF THE REGION. MIN TEMPS WILL BE HELD SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL            
NORMALS AS THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HELP             
KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH.                                              
THE WEEKEND PERIOD IS NOT BEING HANDLED TOO WELL BY THE MODELS AT               
THIS POINT. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BEEN HOLDING STEADY ON THEIR            
VARIOUS PATTERNS FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW. THE GFS IS DETERMINED TO                 
BRING A CUTOFF NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AND UP THE               
ATLANTIC COAST FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WOULD BRING AN AREA OF SHOWERS             
TO THE REGION FOR SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.                    
MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT             
THE SURFACE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...WHICH                 
WOULD SPREAD EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND...KEEPING THE CUTOFF                     
SUPPRESSED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WILL TEND TO FAVOR THE ECMWF                   
SOLUTION...WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM BOTH THE 12Z UKMET AND 12Z GGEM.              
STILL...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY AND TO PRESERVE SOME                     
CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS...WILL STILL HOLD LOW CHC POPS               
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA OVER               
THE WEEKEND. WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AS STRONG             
RIDGING DEPICTED BY ECMWF WOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO AVERAGE WARMER               
THAN SEASONAL NORMALS.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
TRICKY CALL ON VSBYS OVERNIGHT...ESP OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS...AS               
TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE NEARING ZERO F ALREADY AT KGFL...AND ARE              
WITHIN 3F AT KALB. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY            
WORK DOWNWARD LATER THIS EVENING...LIMITING OVERALL GROUND FOG                  
POTENTIAL TO EARLY THIS EVENING. AS SUCH...HAVE ONLY INDICATED A                
BRIEF TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR VSBY AT KGFL...WITH NO REDUCTIONS                     
ELSEWHERE. THIS SEEMS TO BE SUPPORTED BY LATEST RUC13...WHICH                   
DEPICTS DRYING AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE NEXT 2-4               
HOURS...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN WINDS UP TO 20-30KT AT 90MB AGL.              
SHOULD THESE WINDS FAIL TO DEVELOP...A MORE PROLONGED AND WIDESPREAD            
GROUND FOG EVENT MAY OCCUR AT KGFL AND KALB...BUT CURRENT THINKING              
IS THAT THIS IS ONLY A SMALL POSSIBILITY.                                       
VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGHOUT TUE.                                
WINDS WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY...AT LESS             
THAN 5 KT TONIGHT...THEN 5-10 KT ON TUE. LOCAL VARIATIONS IN WIND               
DIRECTION ARE POSSIBLE TUE AFTERNOON DUE TO TOPOGRAPHICAL                       
INFLUENCES...ESP AT KGFL...WHICH MAY BECOME NORTHEAST TO EAST AT                
TIMES.                                                                          
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
TUE-WED...VFR...NO SIG WX.                                                      
THU-SAT...VFR/MVFR...CHC SHOWERS.                                               
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AND            
WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN             
TO MODERATE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO OUR              
SOUTHEAST AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARMER AIR DEVELOPS.                          
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL RECOVER TO 90 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT                    
TONIGHT AND DROP TO MINIMUMS OF 30 TO 40 TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT               
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TONIGHT INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 MPH TUESDAY                   
THEN DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING.                                                
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. COOL                   
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AND WILL            
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO               
MODERATE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO OUR                 
SOUTHEAST AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARMER AIR DEVELOPS. OUR NEXT                 
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL COME LATE IN THE WEEK WHEN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY             
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.                                          
FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC                
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.                                
&&                                                                              
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR               
     CTZ001-013.                                                                
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR               
     NYZ038>043-047-048-051-054-061-063-066-083-084.                            
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR               
     NYZ049-050-052-053-059-060-064-065.                                        
MA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR               
     MAZ025.                                                                    
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR               
     VTZ014-015.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...IAA                                                                  
NEAR TERM...KL/IAA                                                              
SHORT TERM...IAA                                                                
LONG TERM...FRUGIS                                                              
AVIATION...KL                                                                   
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
HYDROLOGY...IAA                                                                 
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY                                               
144 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM ONTARIO THROUGH                       
TONIGHT...THEN MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE                    
TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THURSDAY WILL MOVE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC                  
COAST ON FRIDAY AND MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.                    
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
DEPARTING JET STREAK AND 850-700 FRONTOGENETIC REGION ALLOWING FOR              
SOME BRIEF CLEARING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT 500 MB VORT                      
TRACKING SE FROM UPSTATE NY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING A RETURN TO               
PARTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS AT MOST LOCATIONS THIS                
AFTERNOON. BEST FORCING WILL BE OVER NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SO                
LEFT IN CHANCE OF SPRINKLES OVER SE CT THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE               
DRY. BASICALLY FOLLOWED THE RUC FOR THIS UPDATE AS IT HAS BEST                  
HANDLE ON 500 MB VORT.                                                          
TEMPERATURE FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK...MADE MINOR CHANGES TO                 
REFLECT LATEST HOURLY TRENDS.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...                             
STRONG SUBSIDENCE LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES BY THIS EVENING. WINDS                 
DIMINISH AND EXPECT MOST AREAS TO DECOUPLE AND GO                               
CALM...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR SECTIONS. THIS WILL PROVIDE AND                      
EXCELLENT SETUP FOR FROST. A FROST ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE OUTER                 
ZONES IN NY/NJ AND CT FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SUFFOLK COUNTY                
ON LONG ISLAND IS QUESTIONABLE WITH HOW COLD THE PINE BARREN                    
REGION CAN GET. HOWEVER IT WILL BE A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO                   
DECOUPLE HERE...AND THE AREA THAT DOES GET FROST IS TOO SMALL TO                
WARRANT A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE SURROUNDING ZONE.                              
GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK GOOD...BUT FAVORED THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MET OVER             
THE MAV.                                                                        
HIGH PRESSURE SOLIDLY IN CONTROL WITH SKC TUESDAY...AND MAYBE A                 
FEW POPCORN CU WEDNESDAY. COOL TEMPS WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE                  
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. TUESDAY NIGHT MAY BE THE END OF THE GROWING               
SEASON FOR MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH A FREEZE POSSIBLE                
UNDER IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS RANGE FROM LOW                 
30S INLAND TO UPPER 40S NEAR THE OCEAN.                                         
THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST OFF THE COAST AND LETS RETURN FLOW                 
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WORK IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY...WITH                    
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                   
LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS FOR LATER THIS WEEK.               
BOTH THE EC AND GFS HAVE SIMILAR HEIGHT FIELDS....BUT THE FEATURES              
IN THE EC ARE ABOUT 500 MILES WEST OF THE GFS.                                  
BOTH MODELS DRIVE A STRONG PACIFIC JET ACROSS THE NORTHERN                      
US...AND DEVELOP A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY THURSDAY              
MORNING. HOWEVER...THE GFS HAS A MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW AND                 
BRINGS THAT LOW RACING UP THE US EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT ON STRONG              
SW FLOW AHEAD OF A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.                
THE EC KEEPS THIS DEEP TROUGH AS A CUTOFF OVER THE GREAT BASIN                  
RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THE INCIPIENT CUTOFF OVER THE SE                
US. THE RESULT OF ALL THIS IS A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT FORECAST FOR               
THE TRI STATE AREA FOR THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY PERIOD.                                
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE PACIFIC JET ENERGY TO                  
DELINEATE THE IMPACT ON THIS WEEKENDS WEATHER. HAVE LEFT CHANCE                 
POPS IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT.                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                      
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WILL HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF BKN                     
050-100 DEVELOPING FROM N TO S FROM 19-20Z THEN DISSIPATING                     
AROUND SUNSET. WILL BE SKC AFTER THAT.                                          
FOR WINDS...OBSERVATIONS NOT SHOWING GUSTINESS ORIGINALLY                       
ADVERTISED FOR THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...SO                
HAVE REMOVED FROM TAFS. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT ONE TO TWO HORS OF                
GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KT...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO REFLECT IN                  
TAFS. WINDS WILL BECOME NW AT ALL TERMINALS WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3                 
HOURS AT AROUND 10 KT (FROM NW TO SE)...THEN BECOME NORTHERLY AT                
AROUND 5 KT (LIGHT AND VARIABLE NORTHERN LOWER HUDSON VALLEY                    
TERMINALS AND KTEB) OVERNIGHT...THEN PICK BACK UP OUT OF THE NW                 
AT AROUND 10 KT BY MID MORNING.                                                 
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...                                     
VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL POSSIBLY                  
BRING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO                               
SATURDAY...DEPENDING ON ITS EXACT TRACK. A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST              
IN THE EXTENDED FOR THE WEEKEND.                                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
MINOR CHANGES MADE...MAINLY TO PRECIPITATION FORECAST. PREVIOUS                 
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                                                           
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA WATERS LATE                  
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT              
THE SURFACE. AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND                        
15KT...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KT THIS EVENING AND INTO THE                
FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SEAS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO                   
INCREASE TO 3-4 FT. IT LOOKS LIKE A MARGINAL EVENT FOR SMALL CRAFT              
CONDITIONS AS FAR AS WINDS ARE CONCERNED. AT THIS TIME...WE HAVE                
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY SCA FOR NOW AND WILL MENTION OCCASIONAL              
GUSTS UP TO 25KT. WINDS AND WAVES ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY               
WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.                                             
QUIET IN THE LONG TERM UNTIL PERHAPS THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST               
PERIOD...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST COULD TIGHTEN            
UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ENOUGH TO BUILD SEAS TO SCA CRITERIA LATE              
FRI NIGHT.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
NO MAJOR HYDROLOGY CONCERNS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD ATTM. A                     
SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE                      
WEEKEND.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR CTZ005>008.              
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ067-068.              
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NJZ002.                  
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...BS                                                                   
NEAR TERM...MALOIT                                                              
SHORT TERM...BS                                                                 
LONG TERM...BS                                                                  
AVIATION...MALOIT                                                               
MARINE...BC/MALOIT                                                              
HYDROLOGY...BS                                                                  
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL                                               
945 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
NO CHANGE TO THE SHORT TERM OR LONG TERM FORECAST. FOR THE SHORT                
TERM...HAVE SCATTERED POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA WITH MORE NUMEROUS              
ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE            
DEW POINTS REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS THE REGION...MID 70S AND ABOVE. IN            
ADDITION THE 12Z SOUNDING INDICATED PWATS JUST UNDER TWO                        
INCHES...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SOME CONVECTION AND THERE            
IS SOME CLEARING OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA FOR DAY               
TIME HEATING TO TAKE EFFECT. MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY              
IS  EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH A FEW                
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTS TO NEAR 45            
KNOTS POSSIBLE.                                                                 
60                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WIDESPREAD MID/HIGH CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS SOUTH FL THIS MORNING                  
WITH SOME SHOWERS NEAR KPBI. EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME BY               
MID MORNING WHICH WILL ALLOW AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO COME                   
INLAND AND IGNITE SHRA AND TSRA WITH IT. SW FLOW ALOFT MAY ALLOW                
ACTIVITY TO MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE COAST SLIGHTLY AS IT DEVELOPS                 
ALONG SEA BREEZE SO WILL CARRY VCTS AT EAST COAST TERMINALS. OTHER              
SCT TSRA SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR KAPF BY MID DAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON.                
HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY AGAIN TODAY...AND ANY SHRA/TSRA CAN BE                    
ACCOMPANIED BY REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS...BUT TIMING AT ANY ONE TERMINAL              
IS HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE AT THIS HOUR AND WILL NOT CARRY A TEMPO                  
GROUP AS A RESULT.                                                              
/STRASSBERG                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2008/                          
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...WEAK SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS               
MAINLAND S. FLORIDA ATTM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWEST                 
TODAY. MOST RECENT RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS RATHER STRONG LOW LVL                     
CONVERGENCE (850 MB) TO THE EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY, WHILE                        
SIGNIFICANT DIV IS INDICATED ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL              
JET AROUND THE BASE OF A LONG WAVE MID LATITUDE TROUGH. THESE                   
FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOCAL AREA               
TODAY SO THE CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN HIGH (ALTHOUGH THE FOCUS              
WILL PROBABLY BE OVR CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR THE LOW LVL BOUNDARY)                 
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA.                  
CLOUD COVER TODAY WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO KEEP MAX TEMPS ON THE                 
COOL SIDE, SO DECIDED TO GO 3 TO 4 DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE IN MOST               
AREAS. THE LOW LVL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL NORTH OF THE                 
LOCAL AREA, AND THE UPPER TROUGH BE REPLACED BY DEEP LAYER RIDGE                
TONIGHT, LEADING TO A SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IN THE WX CONDS OVR               
MAINLAND S. FL.                                                                 
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A MID/UPR LVL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVR THE                
PENINSULA WHILE A SFC RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC                  
REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND A RETURN               
TO MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS.                                                    
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE LATEST GFS RUN SHOWS               
QUITE A DIFFERENT PICTURE THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN (24 HRS AGO).                   
SHORT WAVE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TODAY WILL RAPIDLY MOVE                 
EAST AND DEEPEN WITH A CLOSED 500 MB LOW MOVING FROM AK TO THE                  
CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SFC CYCLONE WILL DRAG A                   
FRONT SEWRD WITH GFS BRINGING THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA                  
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER, NO MUCH PRECIP IS                       
INDICATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.                                                     
MARINE...MOSTLY EAST WINDS AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS AT 4                   
FEET OR LESS SHOULD BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SFC WINDS MAY              
SHIFT TO MORE SE-S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED                 
FRONT MOVES INTO N-CENTRAL FLORIDA.                                             
FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS AT THIS TIME.                                        
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WEST PALM BEACH  77  88  78  88 / 30 40 20 30                                   
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  87  79  87 / 30 30 20 30                                   
MIAMI            76  88  79  89 / 30 30 20 30                                   
NAPLES           73  90  74  90 / 30 40 20 30                                   
&&                                                                              
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
AM...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LONG TERM...47/RHG                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...15/JR                                                     
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL                                               
731 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2008                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WIDESPREAD MID/HIGH CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS SOUTH FL THIS MORNING                  
WITH SOME SHOWERS NEAR KPBI. EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME BY               
MID MORNING WHICH WILL ALLOW AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO COME                   
INLAND AND IGNITE SHRA AND TSRA WITH IT. SW FLOW ALOFT MAY ALLOW                
ACTIVITY TO MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE COAST SLIGHTLY AS IT DEVELOPS                 
ALONG SEA BREEZE SO WILL CARRY VCTS AT EAST COAST TERMINALS. OTHER              
SCT TSRA SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR KAPF BY MID DAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON.                
HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY AGAIN TODAY...AND ANY SHRA/TSRA CAN BE                    
ACCOMPANIED BY REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS...BUT TIMING AT ANY ONE TERMINAL              
IS HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE AT THIS HOUR AND WILL NOT CARRY A TEMPO                  
GROUP AS A RESULT.                                                              
/STRASSBERG                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2008/                          
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...WEAK SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS               
MAINLAND S. FLORIDA ATTM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWEST                 
TODAY. MOST RECENT RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS RATHER STRONG LOW LVL                     
CONVERGENCE (850 MB) TO THE EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY, WHILE                        
SIGNIFICANT DIV IS INDICATED ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL              
JET AROUND THE BASE OF A LONG WAVE MID LATITUDE TROUGH. THESE                   
FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOCAL AREA               
TODAY SO THE CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN HIGH (ALTHOUGH THE FOCUS              
WILL PROBABLY BE OVR CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR THE LOW LVL BOUNDARY)                 
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA.                  
CLOUD COVER TODAY WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO KEEP MAX TEMPS ON THE                 
COOL SIDE, SO DECIDED TO GO 3 TO 4 DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE IN MOST               
AREAS. THE LOW LVL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL NORTH OF THE                 
LOCAL AREA, AND THE UPPER TROUGH BE REPLACED BY DEEP LAYER RIDGE                
TONIGHT, LEADING TO A SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IN THE WX CONDS OVR               
MAINLAND S. FL.                                                                 
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A MID/UPR LVL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVR THE                
PENINSULA WHILE A SFC RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC                  
REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND A RETURN               
TO MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS.                                                    
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE LATEST GFS RUN SHOWS               
QUITE A DIFFERENT PICTURE THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN (24 HRS AGO).                   
SHORT WAVE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TODAY WILL RAPIDLY MOVE                 
EAST AND DEEPEN WITH A CLOSED 500 MB LOW MOVING FROM AK TO THE                  
CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SFC CYCLONE WILL DRAG A                   
FRONT SEWRD WITH GFS BRINGING THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA                  
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER, NO MUCH PRECIP IS                       
INDICATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.                                                     
MARINE...MOSTLY EAST WINDS AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS AT 4                   
FEET OR LESS SHOULD BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SFC WINDS MAY              
SHIFT TO MORE SE-S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED                 
FRONT MOVES INTO N-CENTRAL FLORIDA.                                             
FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS AT THIS TIME.                                        
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WEST PALM BEACH  77  88  78  88 / 30 40 20 30                                   
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  87  79  87 / 30 30 20 30                                   
MIAMI            76  88  79  89 / 30 30 20 30                                   
NAPLES           73  90  74  90 / 30 40 20 30                                   
&&                                                                              
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
AM...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LONG TERM...47/RHG                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...15/JR                                                     
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL                                               
341 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...WEAK SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS              
MAINLAND S. FLORIDA ATTM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWEST                 
TODAY. MOST RECENT RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS RATHER STRONG LOW LVL                     
CONVERGENCE (850 MB) TO THE EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY, WHILE                        
SIGNIFICANT DIV IS INDICATED ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL              
JET AROUND THE BASE OF A LONG WAVE MID LATITUDE TROUGH. THESE                   
FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOCAL AREA               
TODAY SO THE CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN HIGH (ALTHOUGH THE FOCUS              
WILL PROBABLY BE OVR CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR THE LOW LVL BOUNDARY)                 
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA.                  
CLOUD COVER TODAY WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO KEEP MAX TEMPS ON THE                 
COOL SIDE, SO DECIDED TO GO 3 TO 4 DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE IN MOST               
AREAS. THE LOW LVL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL NORTH OF THE                 
LOCAL AREA, AND THE UPPER TROUGH BE REPLACED BY DEEP LAYER RIDGE                
TONIGHT, LEADING TO A SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IN THE WX CONDS OVR               
MAINLAND S. FL.                                                                 
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A MID/UPR LVL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVR THE                
PENINSULA WHILE A SFC RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC                  
REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND A RETURN               
TO MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE LATEST GFS RUN SHOWS              
QUITE A DIFFERENT PICTURE THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN (24 HRS AGO).                   
SHORT WAVE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TODAY WILL RAPIDLY MOVE                 
EAST AND DEEPEN WITH A CLOSED 500 MB LOW MOVING FROM AK TO THE                  
CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SFC CYCLONE WILL DRAG A                   
FRONT SEWRD WITH GFS BRINGING THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA                  
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER, NO MUCH PRECIP IS                       
INDICATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.                                                     
.MARINE...MOSTLY EAST WINDS AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS AT 4                  
FEET OR LESS SHOULD BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SFC WINDS MAY              
SHIFT TO MORE SE-S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED                 
FRONT MOVES INTO N-CENTRAL FLORIDA.                                             
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS AT THIS TIME.                                       
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WEST PALM BEACH  83  77  88  78 / 60 30 40 20                                   
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  78  87  79 / 60 30 30 20                                   
MIAMI            83  76  88  79 / 60 30 30 20                                   
NAPLES           83  73  90  74 / 60 30 40 20                                   
&&                                                                              
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
AM...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE/FIRE...47/RGH                                       
AVIATION...15/JR                                                                
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
639 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
316 PM CDT                                                                      
THE SKY WILL SLOWLY CLEAR TONIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE              
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                                                
THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST                   
INDIANA MONDAY AND MAY BECOME STATIONARY. THE PRECIPITATION                     
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK OVERRUNNING AIR WILL MOVE INTO WISCONSIN                   
AND NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR                    
MONDAY AND TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 70S...ESPECIALLY AWAY               
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. WE USED THE OUR LOCAL WRF-ARW MODEL FOR THE                 
FORECAST OF PRECIPITATION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT TONIGHT.                          
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A LARGE 500 MB WAVE TROUGH WAS OVER              
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND CANADA THIS MORNING. THIS TROUGH IS               
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MONDAY                     
EVENING. THIS 500 MB WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO ILLINOIS BY LATE                
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF HAS A LONG MERIDIONAL SURFACE PRESSURE                 
TROUGH FROM ONTARIO TO LOUISIANA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WE USED                  
OUTPUT FROM THE ECMWF MODEL FOR GUIDANCE IN THIS FORECAST. THE                  
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THIS SURFACE TROUGH IN A                  
NARROW BAND ABOUT 750 MILES WIDE OR FROM EASTERN OHIO TO WESTERN                
MISSOURI AT 12 UTC WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATING WILL BE                
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE RAIN WILL BE EAST OF OUR                
FORECAST AREA BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. WE EXPECT THE HIGH                        
TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 WEDNESDAY AND                  
THURSDAY.                                                                       
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY. THERE                  
FORECAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A SURFACE LOW                 
WILL MOVE INTO MINNESOTA AND THAT LOW WILL DRAG A WARM FRONT ACROSS             
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AS IT MOVES NORTH.                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
0000 UTC TAFS...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24              
HOURS UNDER A 500MB RIDGE MOVING THROUGH AND FAIRLY DRY SOUTHEAST               
SURFACE FLOW. NAM/GFS AND ENSEMBLES ALL KEEP PRECIP TO OUR NORTH                
UNTIL SOMETIME ON TUESDAY WHEN A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE                
PLAINS TOWARD OUR AREA. HAVE ELECTED TO GO WITH ONE LINE TAFS TO                
GIVE AN OVERALL SENSE OF WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION THROUGH THE                   
PERIOD. 21Z RUC SHOWS WINDS TURNING MORE SOUTHEAST FOR A WHILE                  
AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT OVERALL DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST                   
SOUTH OF EAST. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR NEW GUIDANCE LATER THIS                     
EVENING AND SEE ABOUT INTRODUCING INCREASED WIND SPEEDS FOR                     
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.                                                             
LENNING                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
201 PM CDT                                                                      
WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITTING ACROSS THE LAKES WINDS WILL               
SLOWLY VEER FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE EARLY              
PORTION OF THE WEEK. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF TO THE WEST                 
TRACKS EASTWARD...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN UP               
AND STRENGTHEN. WINDS WILL LIKELY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY                 
LEVELS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND PUSHING 30KTS OUT OVER THE OPEN                    
WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST                    
PERIOD IS A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT BUT SHOULD MAINLY BE IN                 
LIGHT FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AFTER THE COLD FRONT COMES               
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY.                                                           
HALBACH                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742...10 PM SUNDAY TO 4            
     PM TUESDAY.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
145 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2008                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING OVER LAKE MI MOVING SE SHOWING WEAKENING                
TREND AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT KSBN BEYOND SPRINKLES WITH VFR                      
CONDITIONS CONTINUING. VFR BKN CEILINGS GRADUALLY THIN TODAY WITH               
BREEZY E TO SE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.                                            
&&                                                                              
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM EDT SUN OCT 5 2008/                           
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT                                                    
WEAK REGION OF LIFT ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL RETURN FLOW                 
UNDER INCREASING LARGE SCALE SCENT PER AN ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH                
OVER THE GREAT LAKES...CONTINUES TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN OVER WI/IL/AND           
NOW NW IN. ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO ERODE ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE               
RAIN SHIELD WITH THE BEST FORCING AND LIFT STILL NORTH OF THE                   
REGION. HOWEVER...RECENT RADAR RETURNS INDICATE EXPANSION OF THE                
RAIN SHIELD OVER LK MI...AN INDICATION THAT BETTER FORCING PER THE              
ADVANCING MID LEVEL WAVE MAY BE ARRIVING SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY                 
PROGGED IN FORECAST MODELS. THE ORIGINAL EXPECTATION WAS FOR RAIN TO            
WAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS IT PUSHES EAST AWAY FROM LL VEERED SOUTHERLY             
FLOW/BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THEN REDEVELOP LATER AS THE                    
PROGGED UPPER VORT SHIFTS SE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. NOW IT               
SEEMS THAT THIS MAY OCCUR EARLIER AS INDICATED BY RECENT TRENDS IN              
OBS. HENCE HAVE RAISE POPS NW THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHIFTED SOUTH                
AND RAISED POPS TONIGHT. RATHER DECENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE               
IN PLACE TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO                 
SETUP OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA AND REMAIN QUASI-                     
STATIONARY THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY. H5 FLOW ANALYSIS CONFIRMS                    
DECENT MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH CONTINUED LIFT IN PLACE PROGGED               
BY ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS ON THE 295-300K SURFACES. THIS SEMI-BLOCK                
IN THE PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES IS THE RESULT OF RIDGING                
TO THE WEST OF FA WITH HEIGHT FALLS BEHIND THE DEPARTING NE CONUS               
TROUGH. THIS WILL HAVE MAJOR RAMIFICATIONS ON THE FORECAST THE                  
NEXT 24 HOURS AS RAIN CHANCES LOOK ELEVATED IN THE NE                           
TONIGHT...WITH TEMPS/AND CLOUDS HIGHLY AFFECTED MONDAY IN THE NE.               
INCREASED CLOUDS PER LINGERING MID LEVEL ASCENT WILL LOOK TO                    
HIGHLY SUBDUE TEMPS IN THE NE.                                                  
HAVE UTILIZED THE THE NAM12/GFS/UKMET AND RUC13 FOR FORECAST                    
DETAILS...REMAINING CLOSE TO THE NAM12 WRT TO THE EVOLUTION OF HIGH             
TEMPS MON.                                                                      
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE INCLUDE THE AFOREMENTIONED POP                  
ADJUSTMENT TONIGHT AND SKY AND TEMP CHANGES MONDAY. GIVEN MOSTLY                
CLEAR CONDITIONS OVER THE SW THIRD OF THE FA MON/DEEP MIXING                    
EXPECTED AS OBSERVED TODAY IN IL WHERE HIGHS ARE IN THE 80S/AND H85             
TEMPS AROUND 14 C...HAVE RAISED HIGHS IN THE SW TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.            
HAVE LOWERED TEMPS IN THE NE SOME TO REFLECT PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER             
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...RIDGING             
LOOKS TO FINALLY OVERTAKE THE ENTIRE FA BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND                 
ALLOW CLEARING ACROSS THE BOARD.                                                
LONG TERM...                                                                    
AS HAS BEEN ECHOED IN THE LAST SEVERAL DISCUSSION...HUGE DIFFERENCES            
CONTINUE IN THE HANDLING OF THE EVOLUTION AND EVENTUAL                          
LOCATION/EFFECT OF THE TROUGH IN THE WEST. MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS CAN            
BE FOUND ON TRENDS AND ISSUES IN EXTENDED DISCUSSIONS FROM HPC. MAIN            
FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME               
FRAME.                                                                          
ABOUT THE ONLY THING THAT CAN BE SAID WITH CERTAINTY IN THE FOCUS               
TIME FRAME IS THAT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING WILL BE DRY AS RIDGE             
WILL HOLD ON JUST A BIT LONGER AS IT FINALLY BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST               
SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER IT IS THE HOLDING OF THIS RIDGE AND A SERIES OF               
UPSTREAM SYSTEM THAT WILL CARVE OUT THE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN SO                 
PROBLEMATIC OF LATE. GFS CONTINUES TO EJECT THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH            
RATHER QUICKLY WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN ARRIVING BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT             
AND ENDING BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS NOTED IN THE OVERNIGHT                   
DISCUSSION...GFS IS SUFFERING SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES THAT              
MAKES IT HARDER TO SWALLOW AS WELL. THE NAM ALSO APPEARS TO BE                  
SUFFERING SOMEWHAT FROM FEEDBACK ISSUES. BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION              
BEING HELD SE OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF...WHICH OVERALL HAS               
BEEN A BIT MORE RELIABLE IN PAST WEEKS IS ALSO HAVING SOME ISSUES               
WITH THE HANDLING OF THE SETUP. GFS ENSEMBLE STANDARD DEVIATIONS                
FROM LAST NIGHT FOR THIS TIME FRAME AT A WHOPPING 18 TO 20...MAKING             
IT EVEN MORE DIFFICULT TO SORT OUT DETAILS. THE ONLY THING THAT CAN             
BE DONE AT THIS POINT IS WAIT IT OUT AND SEE IF ANY OF THE MODELS               
CAN COME AROUND AND START HONING IN ON THINGS. AS A RESULT...ONLY               
MINOR CHANGES MADE MAINLY IN SKY COVER THROUGH THURSDAY.                        
OBVIOUSLY TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM BEYOND THURSDAY WOULD            
BE GROSSLY PREMATURE AT THIS POINT. TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE               
PERIOD WILL BE DRY WHICH IS WHAT THE GRIDS WILL REFLECT THROUGH                 
SUNDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...CHAMBERLAIN                                                        
LONG TERM...FISHER                                                              
AVIATION...LUDINGTON                                                            
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
716 PM EDT SUN OCT 5 2008                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SHOWERS MOVG THROUGH NRN INDIANA WKNG AS THEY MOVE EAST OF MID LEVEL            
RIDGE WITH RESULTANT WKNG THETA-E ADVECTION. HWVR...WITH RIDGE MOVG             
ONLY VERY SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT...EXPECT MID CLOUDS WILL LINGER                 
AT THE TERMINALS INTO MONDAY...PSBLY DIMINISHING LATE IN THE PD.                
SFC HIGH OVER NE ONTARIO WILL MOVE SE BEHIND SHRTWV ROTATING                    
THROUGH THE LWR GRTLKS TNGT/MON RESULTING IN INCRSG ELY PRES                    
GRADIENT TOMORROW WHICH ALONG WITH DIURNAL MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN              
12-16KT ELY SFC WINDS. DRY LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW COMBINED WITH                     
LINGERING MID CLOUDS LIMITING HEATING SHOULD PREVENT ANY CU FROM                
FORMING DURING THE DAY MONDAY.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM EDT SUN OCT 5 2008/                          
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT                                                    
WEAK REGION OF LIFT ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL RETURN FLOW                 
UNDER INCREASING LARGE SCALE SCENT PER AN ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH                
OVER THE GREAT LAKES...CONTINUES TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN OVER WI/IL/AND           
NOW NW IN. ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO ERODE ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE               
RAIN SHIELD WITH THE BEST FORCING AND LIFT STILL NORTH OF THE                   
REGION. HOWEVER...RECENT RADAR RETURNS INDICATE EXPANSION OF THE                
RAIN SHIELD OVER LK MI...AN INDICATION THAT BETTER FORCING PER THE              
ADVANCING MID LEVEL WAVE MAY BE ARRIVING SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY                 
PROGGED IN FORECAST MODELS. THE ORIGINAL EXPECTATION WAS FOR RAIN TO            
WAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS IT PUSHES EAST AWAY FROM LL VEERED SOUTHERLY             
FLOW/BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THEN REDEVELOP LATER AS THE                    
PROGGED UPPER VORT SHIFTS SE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. NOW IT               
SEEMS THAT THIS MAY OCCUR EARLIER AS INDICATED BY RECENT TRENDS IN              
OBS. HENCE HAVE RAISE POPS NW THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHIFTED SOUTH                
AND RAISED POPS TONIGHT. RATHER DECENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE               
IN PLACE TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO                 
SETUP OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA AND REMAIN QUASI-                     
STATIONARY THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY. H5 FLOW ANALYSIS CONFIRMS                    
DECENT MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH CONTINUED LIFT IN PLACE PROGGED               
BY ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS ON THE 295-300K SURFACES. THIS SEMI-BLOCK                
IN THE PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES IS THE RESULT OF RIDGING                
TO THE WEST OF FA WITH HEIGHT FALLS BEHIND THE DEPARTING NE CONUS               
TROUGH. THIS WILL HAVE MAJOR RAMIFICATIONS ON THE FORECAST THE                  
NEXT 24 HOURS AS RAIN CHANCES LOOK ELEVATED IN THE NE                           
TONIGHT...WITH TEMPS/AND CLOUDS HIGHLY AFFECTED MONDAY IN THE NE.               
INCREASED CLOUDS PER LINGERING MID LEVEL ASCENT WILL LOOK TO                    
HIGHLY SUBDUE TEMPS IN THE NE.                                                  
HAVE UTILIZED THE THE NAM12/GFS/UKMET AND RUC13 FOR FORECAST                    
DETAILS...REMAINING CLOSE TO THE NAM12 WRT TO THE EVOLUTION OF HIGH             
TEMPS MON.                                                                      
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE INCLUDE THE AFOREMENTIONED POP                  
ADJUSTMENT TONIGHT AND SKY AND TEMP CHANGES MONDAY. GIVEN MOSTLY                
CLEAR CONDITIONS OVER THE SW THIRD OF THE FA MON/DEEP MIXING                    
EXPECTED AS OBSERVED TODAY IN IL WHERE HIGHS ARE IN THE 80S/AND H85             
TEMPS AROUND 14 C...HAVE RAISED HIGHS IN THE SW TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.            
HAVE LOWERED TEMPS IN THE NE SOME TO REFLECT PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER             
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...RIDGING             
LOOKS TO FINALLY OVERTAKE THE ENTIRE FA BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND                 
ALLOW CLEARING ACROSS THE BOARD.                                                
LONG TERM...                                                                    
AS HAS BEEN ECHOED IN THE LAST SEVERAL DISCUSSION...HUGE DIFFERENCES            
CONTINUE IN THE HANDLING OF THE EVOLUTION AND EVENTUAL                          
LOCATION/EFFECT OF THE TROUGH IN THE WEST. MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS CAN            
BE FOUND ON TRENDS AND ISSUES IN EXTENDED DISCUSSIONS FROM HPC. MAIN            
FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME               
FRAME.                                                                          
ABOUT THE ONLY THING THAT CAN BE SAID WITH CERTAINTY IN THE FOCUS               
TIME FRAME IS THAT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING WILL BE DRY AS RIDGE             
WILL HOLD ON JUST A BIT LONGER AS IT FINALLY BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST               
SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER IT IS THE HOLDING OF THIS RIDGE AND A SERIES OF               
UPSTREAM SYSTEM THAT WILL CARVE OUT THE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN SO                 
PROBLEMATIC OF LATE. GFS CONTINUES TO EJECT THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH            
RATHER QUICKLY WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN ARRIVING BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT             
AND ENDING BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS NOTED IN THE OVERNIGHT                   
DISCUSSION...GFS IS SUFFERING SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES THAT              
MAKES IT HARDER TO SWALLOW AS WELL. THE NAM ALSO APPEARS TO BE                  
SUFFERING SOMEWHAT FROM FEEDBACK ISSUES. BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION              
BEING HELD SE OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF...WHICH OVERALL HAS               
BEEN A BIT MORE RELIABLE IN PAST WEEKS IS ALSO HAVING SOME ISSUES               
WITH THE HANDLING OF THE SETUP. GFS ENSEMBLE STANDARD DEVIATIONS                
FROM LAST NIGHT FOR THIS TIME FRAME AT A WHOPPING 18 TO 20...MAKING             
IT EVEN MORE DIFFICULT TO SORT OUT DETAILS. THE ONLY THING THAT CAN             
BE DONE AT THIS POINT IS WAIT IT OUT AND SEE IF ANY OF THE MODELS               
CAN COME AROUND AND START HONING IN ON THINGS. AS A RESULT...ONLY               
MINOR CHANGES MADE MAINLY IN SKY COVER THROUGH THURSDAY.                        
OBVIOUSLY TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM BEYOND THURSDAY WOULD            
BE GROSSLY PREMATURE AT THIS POINT. TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE               
PERIOD WILL BE DRY WHICH IS WHAT THE GRIDS WILL REFLECT THROUGH                 
SUNDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...CHAMBERLAIN                                                        
LONG TERM...FISHER                                                              
AVIATION...JT                                                                   
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
340 PM EDT SUN OCT 5 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT                                                    
WEAK REGION OF LIFT ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL RETURN FLOW                 
UNDER INCREASING LARGE SCALE SCENT PER AN ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH                
OVER THE GREAT LAKES...CONTINUES TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN OVER WI/IL/AND           
NOW NW IN. ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO ERODE ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE               
RAIN SHIELD WITH THE BEST FORCING AND LIFT STILL NORTH OF THE                   
REGION. HOWEVER...RECENT RADAR RETURNS INDICATE EXPANSION OF THE                
RAIN SHIELD OVER LK MI...AN INDICATION THAT BETTER FORCING PER THE              
ADVANCING MID LEVEL WAVE MAY BE ARRIVING SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY                 
PROGGED IN FORECAST MODELS. THE ORIGINAL EXPECTATION WAS FOR RAIN TO            
WAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS IT PUSHES EAST AWAY FROM LL VEERED SOUTHERLY             
FLOW/BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THEN REDEVELOP LATER AS THE                    
PROGGED UPPER VORT SHIFTS SE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. NOW IT               
SEEMS THAT THIS MAY OCCUR EARLIER AS INDICATED BY RECENT TRENDS IN              
OBS. HENCE HAVE RAISE POPS NW THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHIFTED SOUTH                
AND RAISED POPS TONIGHT. RATHER DECENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE               
IN PLACE TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO                 
SETUP OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA AND REMAIN QUASI-                     
STATIONARY THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY. H5 FLOW ANALYSIS CONFIRMS                    
DECENT MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH CONTINUED LIFT IN PLACE PROGGED               
BY ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS ON THE 295-300K SURFACES. THIS SEMI-BLOCK                
IN THE PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES IS THE RESULT OF RIDGING                
TO THE WEST OF FA WITH HEIGHT FALLS BEHIND THE DEPARTING NE CONUS               
TROUGH. THIS WILL HAVE MAJOR RAMIFICATIONS ON THE FORECAST THE                  
NEXT 24 HOURS AS RAIN CHANCES LOOK ELEVATED IN THE NE                           
TONIGHT...WITH TEMPS/AND CLOUDS HIGHLY AFFECTED MONDAY IN THE NE.               
INCREASED CLOUDS PER LINGERING MID LEVEL ASCENT WILL LOOK TO                    
HIGHLY SUBDUE TEMPS IN THE NE.                                                  
HAVE UTILIZED THE THE NAM12/GFS/UKMET AND RUC13 FOR FORECAST                    
DETAILS...REMAINING CLOSE TO THE NAM12 WRT TO THE EVOLUTION OF HIGH             
TEMPS MON.                                                                      
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE INCLUDE THE AFOREMENTIONED POP                  
ADJUSTMENT TONIGHT AND SKY AND TEMP CHANGES MONDAY. GIVEN MOSTLY                
CLEAR CONDITIONS OVER THE SW THIRD OF THE FA MON/DEEP MIXING                    
EXPECTED AS OBSERVED TODAY IN IL WHERE HIGHS ARE IN THE 80S/AND H85             
TEMPS AROUND 14 C...HAVE RAISED HIGHS IN THE SW TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.            
HAVE LOWERED TEMPS IN THE NE SOME TO REFLECT PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER             
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...RIDGING             
LOOKS TO FINALLY OVERTAKE THE ENTIRE FA BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND                 
ALLOW CLEARING ACROSS THE BOARD.                                                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
AS HAS BEEN ECHOED IN THE LAST SEVERAL DISCUSSION...HUGE DIFFERENCES            
CONTINUE IN THE HANDLING OF THE EVOLUTION AND EVENTUAL                          
LOCATION/EFFECT OF THE TROUGH IN THE WEST. MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS CAN            
BE FOUND ON TRENDS AND ISSUES IN EXTENDED DISCUSSIONS FROM HPC. MAIN            
FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME               
FRAME.                                                                          
ABOUT THE ONLY THING THAT CAN BE SAID WITH CERTAINTY IN THE FOCUS               
TIME FRAME IS THAT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING WILL BE DRY AS RIDGE             
WILL HOLD ON JUST A BIT LONGER AS IT FINALLY BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST               
SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER IT IS THE HOLDING OF THIS RIDGE AND A SERIES OF               
UPSTREAM SYSTEM THAT WILL CARVE OUT THE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN SO                 
PROBLEMATIC OF LATE. GFS CONTINUES TO EJECT THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH            
RATHER QUICKLY WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN ARRIVING BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT             
AND ENDING BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS NOTED IN THE OVERNIGHT                   
DISCUSSION...GFS IS SUFFERING SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES THAT              
MAKES IT HARDER TO SWALLOW AS WELL. THE NAM ALSO APPEARS TO BE                  
SUFFERING SOMEWHAT FROM FEEDBACK ISSUES. BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION              
BEING HELD SE OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF...WHICH OVERALL HAS               
BEEN A BIT MORE RELIABLE IN PAST WEEKS IS ALSO HAVING SOME ISSUES               
WITH THE HANDLING OF THE SETUP. GFS ENSEMBLE STANDARD DEVIATIONS                
FROM LAST NIGHT FOR THIS TIME FRAME AT A WHOPPING 18 TO 20...MAKING             
IT EVEN MORE DIFFICULT TO SORT OUT DETAILS. THE ONLY THING THAT CAN             
BE DONE AT THIS POINT IS WAIT IT OUT AND SEE IF ANY OF THE MODELS               
CAN COME AROUND AND START HONING IN ON THINGS. AS A RESULT...ONLY               
MINOR CHANGES MADE MAINLY IN SKY COVER THROUGH THURSDAY.                        
OBVIOUSLY TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM BEYOND THURSDAY WOULD            
BE GROSSLY PREMATURE AT THIS POINT. TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE               
PERIOD WILL BE DRY WHICH IS WHAT THE GRIDS WILL REFLECT THROUGH                 
SUNDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../18Z TAFS/                                                          
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK ASCENT ASSOCIATED              
WITH VEERED LL FLOW PER DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAIN                    
STATES AND INCREASED LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM ANOTHER UPPER VORT                 
MAX DIVING SE OUT OF ONTARIO...WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SH                      
ACTIVITY TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE FA. MID-LEVEL FLOW WOULD                  
DIRECT ACTIVITY INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...BEST FORCING AND FLOW                  
WILL SHIFTS NORTH OF THE FA ONLY LEAVING A FEW DEBRIS MID AND HIGH              
LEVEL CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH LOCALLY. FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE FA                 
MAY SEE A BRIEF SHOWER/SPRINKLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NO FLIGHT                  
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. MID/HIGHS CLOUDS WILL EXPAND EAST AND NORTH              
THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. ADVANCING SECONDARY TROUGH NOW                
PUSHING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF              
MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER WI/MI AND EXTREME NORTHERN                           
IN...SUPPORTING MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE NIGHT THERE AS              
H5 HEIGHTS REMAIN NEARLY FIXED LOCALLY PER AN ADVANCING RIDGE.                  
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...CHAMBERLAIN                                                        
LONG TERM...FISHER                                                              
AVIATION...CHAMBERLAIN                                                          
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
1158 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM.../TODAY/                                                           
BIG QUESTION TODAY WILL BE PRECIP TRENDS...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING.             
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO EJECT OUT OF WRN CONUS MEAN TROUGH              
INCLUDING ONE NOTED OVER ERN SD AND ITS ASSOCIATED NW-SE VORT LOBE.             
MUCH OF THE FORCING APPEARS TO BE THERMODYNAMIC WITH MODERATE/STRONG            
THETA-E ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING.  ALTHOUGH QPF A BIT              
HOT FOR THE TIME BEING...MODELS GENERALLY SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS              
WELL AS DEPICTED IN 300-310K ISENT LAYER WITH INCREASING UVM AND                
CONVERGENCE.  SENSIBLE WX TRENDS SHOULD BE TO EXTENT CURRENT SD-NWRN            
IA BAND OF PRECIP SEWD ACROSS NERN IA AS REFLECTED IN MOST MODELS               
INCLUDING 4KM SPC/5KM ARX WRF RUNS.  EXTRAPOLATION KEEPS BACK EDGE              
OVER NERN FORECAST AREA BY 12Z SO HAVE RAISED POPS WELL INTO                    
CATEGORICAL IN THOSE SECTIONS.                                                  
AS THE BAND OF 300-310K ISENT UVM LIFTS AWAY...PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD            
DECREASE AS MO VALLEY WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD BRING IA MORE INTO THE               
WARM SECTOR RELEGATING AFTERNOON POPS ONLY TO NRN PORTIONS.  RAISED             
HIGHS A DEGREE OR SO IN MOST AREAS BASED ON NAM/RUC SOUNDINGS AND               
SREF SUGGESTIONS.  GFS RAW TEMPS SOMEWHAT COOLER...CLOSER TO                    
PERSISTENCE...BUT THIS DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY BASED ON STRENGTH OF                
WARM ADVECTION.                                                                 
.LONG TERM.../TONIGHT...SATURDAY/                                               
THE SHORT RANGE CONTINUES TO BE WELL FORECAST. AFTER THE INITIAL                
SURGE OF MOISTURE TODAY...GFS/NAM BOTH SHOW QUIET PERIOD THROUGH                
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE AND MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM            
TRACKING NORTHEAST BY MONDAY NIGHT. WITH H850 LOW JUST TO WEST OF               
AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE TRANSPORT AIMED RIGHT AT THE                    
FORECAST AREA. LOW LVL JET INCREASES TO 30 TO 40KTS WITH MODEST                 
QVECTOR CONVERGENCE OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS BY 12Z TUES WHICH                    
CONTINUES MOST OF THE DAY...THOUGH WEAKER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.             
WITH SUPPORT OF CLOSED H850 LOW...WILL CONTINUE TO GO HIGH                      
LIKELY...LOW CAT POPS WITH GREAT LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN/ISO THUNDER.                
PROFILES QUITE MOIST FOR TUESDAY WITH SATURATION THROUGH H300                   
THROUGH 18Z. WILL PWATS CONTINUE IN THE 1 TO 1.5 IN RANGE.                      
INSTABILITY STILL LACKING TO ANY DEGREE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO              
RUMBLES OF THUNDER AT MOST EXPECTED WITH LITTLE THREAT FOR ANY                  
SEVERE. GEM/NAM/GFS AND 00Z EURO HAVE SYSTEM EXITING ON WED...ABOUT             
12 HOURS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS FCST. THOUGH BEST OF THE LIFT IS                  
ALREADY EAST OF THE AREA...SOME CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL                   
CONTINUE FOR THE EAST. IN THE EXTENDED...PERIOD STILL LOOKS VERY                
ACTIVE WITH STRONG SYSTEM SWINGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY DAYS            
6 AND 7. MODELS HANDLING THE SYSTEM QUITE DIFFERENTLY AFTER AN                  
INITIAL PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND PRECIP ON FRIDAY. SOME WAA               
SHOWERS/ISO THUNDER FRI WITH A MILD DAY OR TWO BEFORE STRONG COLD               
FRONT ARRIVES. THOUGH BEYOND THE CURRENT PACKAGE...WILL BE                      
INTERESTING TO SEE THE CHANGES UNFOLD.                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...05/18Z                                                              
SURFACE WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY              
NORTHEAST...BUT ANY SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA HAS MOVED NORTH            
OF THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS BUT WITH PLENTY OF MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS              
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF              
ISOLATED LATE IN THE PERIOD AT KFOD AND KMCW...BUT NOT CONFIDENT                
ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC...REV/BSS                                                                
AVIATION...MOYER                                                                
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION                             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
841 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
19Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED AN INTENSE            
LOOKING TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA...WEAK RIDGING                 
DEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM OVER THE PACIFIC NW...A TROUGH STRETCHING FROM            
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND RIDGING            
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHWARD ACROSS UPPER MI INTO NRN ONTARIO.                
DESPITE SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE OVER UPPER MI...ALONG WITH             
A DRY SE FLOW COMING OUT OF HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN ONTARIO AS                 
INDICATED BY THE 12Z APX SOUNDING (40C OR GREATER DEWPOINT                      
DEPRESSIONS FROM 800MB UP TO 350MB)...WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS AND PCPN            
HAS MANAGED TO MOVE FROM NRN WI INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. IT            
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE PCPN IS FALLING APART...LIKELY DUE TO THE              
UPPER RIDGE STILL BUILDING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND THE INFLUENCE OF             
THE DRY AIR. IN ADDITION...PCPN REPORTS FROM AUTOMATED SITES IN                 
UPPER MI HAVE ONLY BEEN AROUND 0.01. SOME BREAK UP OF THE CLOUDS                
EXISTS OVER SRN PORTIONS OF MN AND WI. HOWEVER...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL             
AREA OF PCPN EXISTS ALONG THE RED RIVER BTWN ND AND MN...IN AN AREA             
OF DPVA IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND IN AN AXIS OF                 
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.3 INCHES. DEWPOINTS REFLECT THE MORE                
MOIST AIRMASS AS WELL...WITH READINGS IN THE 50S OVER WI AND                    
MN...WITH EVEN A FEW LOW 60S AS WELL...SOMEWHAT HUMID FOR THIS TIME             
OF THE YEAR.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUE)...                                                
LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES OVER THE CWA WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...                
PROBABLY BEFORE 00Z...AS SUBSIDENCE AND RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD              
OVER THE CWA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS                   
INCHING CLOSER. THE REST OF THE NIGHT LOOKS DRY...WITH PERSISTENT               
DRY SE FLOW OUT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA DRIFTING OFF TO THE                   
EAST...AND RIDGING ALOFT. THEREFORE TONIGHTS ONLY ISSUES ARE CLOUDS             
AND TEMPS. CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA               
ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION/MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD SLOWLY            
PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST WITH TIME. MEANWHILE...LOCATIONS NEAR THE WI              
BORDER SHOULD PARTIALLY CLEAR OUT. THEREFORE...A FULL CLOUD DECK IS             
NOT EXPECTED ACROSS ANY OF THE CWA TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR             
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER...WITH A SE BREEZE GOING AND                  
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING WITH TIME TO BTWN 0.75 AND 1                      
INCH...TEMPS SHOULD NOT DROP TOO MUCH. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO THE                   
PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO LOWER THEM A LITTLE IN THE INLAND AREAS OF             
THE EASTERN U.P. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY.                                 
ON TUE...THE ATTENTION IS FOCUSED TO THE BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG THE              
RED RIVER. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SLOWER MOTION COMPARED             
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...LIKELY DUE TO THE STRONG UPPER AND SFC               
RIDGING DOWNSTREAM. DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS                
EAST INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA BTWN 18Z TUE AND 00Z WED. WITH            
AMPLE MOISTURE MOVING IN (PRECIPITABLE WATER CLIMBING TO OVER AN                
INCH)...THE DPVA SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO AT LEAST TRANSLATE THE CURRENT             
SHOWERS ALONG THE RED RIVER EASTWARD...REACHING FAR WESTERN LAKE                
SUPERIOR IN THE MORNING...THEN INTO THE FAR WESTERN U.P. IN THE                 
AFTERNOON. RAISED POPS TO LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL IN THIS AREA. FOR               
THE CENTRAL U.P....DELAYED PCPN UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY GIVEN THE                 
SLOWER TIMING. TEMPS ARE TRICKY SINCE THERE PROBABLY WILL BE SOME               
FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH MID/HIGH CLOUDS IN THE MORNING. WITH 850MB            
TEMPS PROGGED BETWEEN 10-12C...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO              
REACH INTO THE LOW TO POSSIBLY MID 60S...A BLEND BETWEEN MAV AND MET            
GUIDANCE. WARMEST READINGS EXPECTED IN DOWNSLOPE SE FLOW AREAS...               
WITH COOLEST READINGS DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN. IF MORE SUN OCCURS             
THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...SOME LOCATIONS COULD REACH THE UPPER                  
60S...SUCH AS PELKIE.                                                           
.LONG TERM (TUE NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...                                        
TUE NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT...A MID LEVEL AND SFC TROUGH MOVING THROUGH            
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SUPPORT PCPN INTO THE CWA. ALTHOUGH THE              
STRONGER 900-600 MB FGEN OVER NW WI AND WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WEAKENS AS            
IT SLIDES TO THE EAST...A BROAD AREA OF 300-305K ISENTROPIC LIFT                
ALONG WITH STRONG MOISTURE INFLOW...BRINGING PWAT VALUES TO                     
1.00-1.25 INCHES WILL SUPPORT DECENT COVERAGE OF RAIN WITH LIKELY               
POPS INCLUDED IN THE FCST. ANY LEFTOVER RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEPART              
THE CNTRL CWA WED MORNING AND IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE EAST. A MORE            
ZONAL PATTERN WITH A MID LEVEL LOW AND SFC TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NRN            
MANITOBA INTO NW ONTARIO WILL RESULT IN DRY ADVECTION WITH WRLY                 
FLOW.                                                                           
THU-MON...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE INITIALLY IN AGREEMENT WITH                     
PATTERN AMPLIFICATION AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WRN CONUS.                  
HOWEVER...BY THE WEEKEND INTO MON SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES DEVELOP.              
THE 00Z AND 12Z ECMWF REMAIN SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE MID             
LEVEL TROUGH THAN THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH IN ADDITION TO            
THE GLBL GEM PUSH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH THROUGH THE UPPER LAKES              
AND LEAVE A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SW CONUS. SO...WITH LARGE                       
UNCERTAINTY THE FCST CONTINUES TO LEAN MORE TOWARD A SLIGHTLY FASTER            
PROGRESSION OF THE ECMWF FAVORED BY HPC. BY SAT...HIGHER POPS ARE               
EXPECTED OVER THE WEST...CLOSER TO THE INVERTED TROF AXIS. 30-40                
POPS ARE THEN INCLUDED THROUGH MON TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LARGE                     
UNCERTAINTY.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
LOW IFR CIGS AT KSAW WERE TEMPORARY CAUSED BY RAIN AND ALSO A BIT OF            
USLOPE. LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NE WI/WESTERN MI HAVE BEEN ERODING AND                
LOOK FOR THIS TO CONTINUE. WILL ADD LLWS IN TONIGHT AT BOTH SITES               
WITH WINDS OFF THE SFC. AS FOR KCMX...SE WINDS ARE DOWNSLOPE FOR                
THEM...SO KEPT THE LOW CLOUDS OUT.                                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
BREEZY SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT INTO MUCH OF             
TUE...ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST HALF...WHERE WINDS SPEEDS OF UP TO 30              
KT ARE POSSIBLE. THE BREEZY WINDS ARE DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE                   
GRADIENT BTWN HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO AND A LOW PRESSURE             
TROUGH OVER FAR WESTERN MN. THIS TROUGH SHOULD BE MOVING INTO FAR               
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TUE AFTN...THEN CROSSING THE REST OF THE             
LAKE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. AS THE TROUGH CROSSES...EXPECT                 
WINDS TO FALL BELOW 20 KT AND GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SW. FOR WED                
INTO THU...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL                 
CANADA TO HUDSON BAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE SOUTHERN                 
GREAT LAKES. THIS SETS UP AN INCREASING WEST WIND OVER LAKE                     
SUPERIOR...POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO 30 KT WED NIGHT AND THU ACROSS               
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE               
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES SHOULD EXPAND UP INTO THE LAKE SUPERIOR ON                 
FRI...BRINGING WINDS BACK DOWN BELOW 20 KT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL             
THEN SET UP OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT AND SAT. POSITION              
OF THIS BOUNDARY IS UNCERTAIN...BUT RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT SE                
WINDS UP TO 25 KT MAY AFFECT LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THIS PERIOD.                  
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE                                                            
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...AJ                                                        
LONG TERM...JLB                                                                 
AVIATION...GM                                                                   
MARINE...AJ                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
137 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2008                                                       
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE                                
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR                
RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                                         
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOW A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH             
AN ACCOMPANYING TROUGH EXTENDING WEST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A             
LONGWAVE TROUGH STRETCHES FROM A LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO                    
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO NORTHERN ALBERTA. A STEEP                 
RIDGE SEPARATES THESE TWO SYSTEMS AND RUN FROM A HIGH OVER NORTHERN             
ONTARIO SOUTH THROUGH WISCONSIN INTO THE WEST END OF THE OHIO RIVER             
VALLEY. SURFACE FEATURES DEPICT A LARGE HIGH EMBEDDED OVER EASTERN              
ONTARIO BLANKETING MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A LOW AND                    
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM REACHES FROM NORTH DAKOTAS SOUTH THROUGH              
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO WEST TEXAS. A THICK DECK OF CLOUDS HAVE                 
MOVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET.              
THE MODELS ARE IN A FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EARLY PART OF THE              
FORECAST PERIOD. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVER UPPER MICHIGAN             
TODAY WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL JET SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID                   
ATLANTIC STATES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL EDGE INTO SOUTHWEST QUEBEC.              
THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRONT WILL MANEUVER INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. LOW             
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRAWN INTO THE AREA IN THE                   
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA.               
THE LOSS OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE JET AND THE SHORTWAVE              
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE WILL CAUSE THE CHANCE OF                        
PRECIPITATION TO LESSEN DURING THE DAY. GUIDANCE SHOWING THE BEST               
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE OVER THE WEST THIS MORNING...AND WEAKENING            
DURING THE DAY. CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY WILL HELP HOLD DOWN THE              
TEMPERATURES. TRAJECTORY FORECAST SUGGEST SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION.              
THUS WILL STICK FAIRLY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE...KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN              
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 760.                                                    
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL DIVERT INTO EASTERN ONTARIO AS THE NORTHERN            
PLAINS TROUGH SHIFTS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. THE COLD FRONT WILL                
TRACK INTO EASTERN MINNESOTA. THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL                  
CONTINUE TO DRAW WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER                
LEVEL JET MAX WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN ONTARIO. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE             
CONFINED TO THE AREA TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.                          
THE RIDGE WILL RELOCATE OVER WESTERN QUEBEC ON TUESDAY ALLOWING THE             
MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM TO PUSH INTO THE WEST            
END OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL JET MAX WILL               
BECOME FOCUSED OVER NORTH ONTARIO...AIMED AT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES              
AND CONTRIBUTE TO THE INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE             
WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE AREA HEAD OF THE FRONT. SHORTWAVE                
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL COMBINED TO                
GENERATE SHOWERS OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.                       
THE SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL TREK THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA            
TUESDAY NIGHT AS IT WEAKENS AND WASHES OUT AS IT CRASHES INTO DRIER             
AND MORE STABLE AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN            
CONUS. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE AND                
SLIDE INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ALSO DEVELOP                
OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS WILL STILL              
BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FORECAST AREA ACCOMPANYING THE FROPA. PLAN TO              
KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING.                                                         
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL SPIN INTO CENTRAL MANITOBA ON WEDNESDAY WHILE            
THE COLD FRONT RACES THROUGH THE AREA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP               
SHOWER POSSIBILITY OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE             
TO THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY.                                              
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT INTO NORTHERN MANITOBA WEDNESDAY                   
NIGHT...WHILE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LOW             
SWEEPS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS INSTABILITY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO              
KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING OVER THE EASTERN U.P. DRY AIR WILL            
ADVECT INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AND SHOULD END THE CHANCES OF             
SHOWERS OVER THE WEST. DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON THURSDAY AS A            
SURFACE RIDGE SETTLE OVER THE AREA AND THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATE              
TO THE EAST OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY.                                             
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY SHOWING SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN ECMWF               
AND GFS MODELS ON THE TRACK OF SURFACE FEATURES. THE ECMWF KEEPS A              
HIGH OVER THE AREA WHILE GFS IS BRINGING IN THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE               
SYSTEM. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SHOWING A LITTLE BETTER CONTINUITY SO                
WILL FAVOR THE EC SOLUTION AND KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
A DRY ESE FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN               
ONTARIO WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AT             
BOTH TAF SITES. HOWEVER...SOME MVFR STRATOCUMULUS POPPED UP THIS                
MORNING AT SAW...AND ALTHOUGH RECENT CALL TO THE SITE REPORTED NO               
MORE STRATOCUMULUS DECK...DECIDED TO LEAVE IN POTENTIAL FOR                     
REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH SE FLOW OFF LAKE MI                
PROVIDING UPSLOPE.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
A E-SE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF JAMES BAY...AND LOW              
PRESSURE OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL RESULT IN WINDS UP TO 30                
KNOTS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY                  
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL DIE OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS BY                
LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED AS THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FROM THE NRN                  
PLAINS MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE. WRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO 30              
KNOTS OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE THU AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS                
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE                 
CENTRAL PLAINS.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE                                                            
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...DLG                                                                
AVIATION...AJ                                                                   
MARINE...VOSS                                                                   
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
745 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR                
RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                                         
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOW A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH             
AN ACCOMPANYING TROUGH EXTENDING WEST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A             
LONGWAVE TROUGH STRETCHES FROM A LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO                    
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO NORTHERN ALBERTA. A STEEP                 
RIDGE SEPARATES THESE TWO SYSTEMS AND RUN FROM A HIGH OVER NORTHERN             
ONTARIO SOUTH THROUGH WISCONSIN INTO THE WEST END OF THE OHIO RIVER             
VALLEY. SURFACE FEATURES DEPICT A LARGE HIGH EMBEDDED OVER EASTERN              
ONTARIO BLANKETING MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A LOW AND                    
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM REACHES FROM NORTH DAKOTAS SOUTH THROUGH              
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO WEST TEXAS. A THICK DECK OF CLOUDS HAVE                 
MOVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET.              
THE MODELS ARE IN A FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EARLY PART OF THE              
FORECAST PERIOD. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVER UPPER MICHIGAN             
TODAY WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL JET SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID                   
ATLANTIC STATES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL EDGE INTO SOUTHWEST QUEBEC.              
THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRONT WILL MANEUVER INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. LOW             
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRAWN INTO THE AREA IN THE                   
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA.               
THE LOSS OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE JET AND THE SHORTWAVE              
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE WILL CAUSE THE CHANCE OF                        
PRECIPITATION TO LESSEN DURING THE DAY. GUIDANCE SHOWING THE BEST               
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE OVER THE WEST THIS MORNING...AND WEAKENING            
DURING THE DAY. CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY WILL HELP HOLD DOWN THE              
TEMPERATURES. TRAJECTORY FORECAST SUGGEST SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION.              
THUS WILL STICK FAIRLY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE...KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN              
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 760.                                                    
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL DIVERT INTO EASTERN ONTARIO AS THE NORTHERN            
PLAINS TROUGH SHIFTS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. THE COLD FRONT WILL                
TRACK INTO EASTERN MINNESOTA. THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL                  
CONTINUE TO DRAW WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER                
LEVEL JET MAX WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN ONTARIO. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE             
CONFINED TO THE AREA TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.                          
THE RIDGE WILL RELOCATE OVER WESTERN QUEBEC ON TUESDAY ALLOWING THE             
MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM TO PUSH INTO THE WEST            
END OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL JET MAX WILL               
BECOME FOCUSED OVER NORTH ONTARIO...AIMED AT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES              
AND CONTRIBUTE TO THE INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE             
WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE AREA HEAD OF THE FRONT. SHORTWAVE                
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL COMBINED TO                
GENERATE SHOWERS OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.                       
THE SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL TREK THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA            
TUESDAY NIGHT AS IT WEAKENS AND WASHES OUT AS IT CRASHES INTO DRIER             
AND MORE STABLE AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN            
CONUS. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE AND                
SLIDE INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ALSO DEVELOP                
OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS WILL STILL              
BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FORECAST AREA ACCOMPANYING THE FROPA. PLAN TO              
KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING.                                                         
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL SPIN INTO CENTRAL MANITOBA ON WEDNESDAY WHILE            
THE COLD FRONT RACES THROUGH THE AREA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP               
SHOWER POSSIBILITY OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE             
TO THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY.                                              
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT INTO NORTHERN MANITOBA WEDNESDAY                   
NIGHT...WHILE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LOW             
SWEEPS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS INSTABILITY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO              
KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING OVER THE EASTERN U.P. DRY AIR WILL            
ADVECT INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AND SHOULD END THE CHANCES OF             
SHOWERS OVER THE WEST. DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON THURSDAY AS A            
SURFACE RIDGE SETTLE OVER THE AREA AND THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATE              
TO THE EAST OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY.                                             
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY SHOWING SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN ECMWF               
AND GFS MODELS ON THE TRACK OF SURFACE FEATURES. THE ECMWF KEEPS A              
HIGH OVER THE AREA WHILE GFS IS BRINGING IN THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE               
SYSTEM. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SHOWING A LITTLE BETTER CONTINUITY SO                
WILL FAVOR THE EC SOLUTION AND KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
A DRY ESE FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTH OF JAMES BAY                 
SHOULD YIELD VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH A BAND OF              
MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM WI COULD LOWER CIGS TO 4-5KFT BY EARLY                  
AFTERNOON. AS THE S-SE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES...WIND GUSTS NEAR            
20 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED BY LATE THIS MORNING.                                  
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
A E-SE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF JAMES BAY...AND LOW              
PRESSURE OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL RESULT IN WINDS UP TO 30                
KNOTS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY                  
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL DIE OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS BY                
LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED AS THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FROM THE NRN                  
PLAINS MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE. WRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO 30              
KNOTS OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE THU AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS                
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE                 
CENTRAL PLAINS.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE                                                            
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...DLG                                                                
AVIATION...VOSS                                                                 
MARINE...VOSS                                                                   
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
134 PM EDT SUN OCT 5 2008                                                       
UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE                                                
.DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT)...                                           
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND                       
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT.                                            
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CLOSED LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL               
QUEBEC...A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH FROM MISSOURI INTO EASTERN                     
MANITOBA. A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS OVER ROCKIES. A SURFACE ANALYSIS                 
DEPICTS A HIGH OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND BLANKETS MUCH OF THE GREAT             
LAKES REGION AND A LOW OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. A STATIONARY                
FRONT EXTENDS EAST FROM THIS LOW ACROSS MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER                
VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY. A TROUGH ALSO STRETCHES              
NORTHWEST FROM THE SAME LOW INTO NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. A WEAK              
MID LEVEL TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE QUEBEC LOW IS SWEEPING THROUGH             
LAKE SUPERIOR AND CENTRAL ONTARIO PRODUCING SOME CLOUD COVER OVER               
THE AREA TONIGHT. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE BEING EJECTED OUT OF              
THE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES AND ARE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ONE OF             
THE SHORTWAVES EJECTED OUT OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE              
RIDGE AND BECOME FOCUSED OVER THE IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA LATE              
TODAY. DEEP MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THE SHORTWAVE.                                 
THE QUEBEC LOW WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO...WHILE              
HOLDING THE MINNESOTA RIDGE STATIONARY. AS THIS LOW SETTLE                      
SOUTH...THE HIGH OVER ONTARIO WILL SHIFT A LITTLE EAST INTO JAMES               
BAY. THIS WILL ALSO HOLD THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATIONARY             
AS WELL. THE SHORTWAVE IN THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO                   
WISCONSIN AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS             
OF 1 INCH WILL BLANKET MUCH OVER THE DAKOTAS...SOUTHERN MINNESOTA               
AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. OVER THE FORECAST AREA...CONDITIONS WILL BE             
DRIER AND MORE STABLE. THUS PLAN TO KEEP THE CWA DRY. THERE SHOULD              
BE SOME CLOUD COVER TODAY...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN CWA CLOSER TO               
SHORTWAVE WRAPPING AROUND THE ONTARIO LOW. SOUNDING FORECAST SUGGEST            
THIS WILL BE MAINLY AC. IT SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER OVER THE WEST              
WHERE THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUN.                                                 
THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN ONTARIO WILL SETTLE INTO SOUTHEAST               
ONTARIO TONIGHT ALLOWING THE RIDGE OVER MINNESOTA TO EDGE EAST INTO             
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE HIGH OVER JAMES BAY WILL SETTLE A LITTLE             
SOUTH ALSO INTO EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO. THE LOW OVER CENTRAL PLAINS               
WILL LIFT INTO THE DAKOTAS. A JET MAX WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE FORECAST            
AREA. PLACING THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER WISCONSIN.              
GFS/NAM SHOWING THAT THE DEEP MOISTURE FIELD AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY               
WILL REACH TO JUST SOUTH OF THE WISCONSIN/U.P. BORDER. FOR NOW THE              
SHOWERS SHOULD STAY JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE             
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SUGGEST THAT THERE                 
SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER.                                                
THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO WILL SHIFT EAST INTO                   
SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON MONDAY...ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL             
ONTARIO AND THE FORECAST AREA. THE DAKOTA LOW WILL DEVELOP INTO A               
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. A LOW WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN            
THIS TROUGH OVER KANSAS. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER EAST                 
CENTRAL ONTARIO SLOWING THE PROGRESS OF THE DAKOTAS TROUGH SO IT                
WILL ONLY REACH THE DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA BORDER. MODELS CONTINUE TO                
SHOW THAT THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL STAY JUST TO THE WEST OF THE                   
FORECAST AREA.                                                                  
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO EASTERN DAKOTAS AND THE                     
ASSOCIATED LOW OVER KANSAS WILL LIFT INTO NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT. THE            
SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT TO JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE SURFACE              
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM AS IT TREKS INTO                  
MINNESOTA BEHIND THE HIGH. TOGETHER THESE WILL PRODUCE A SOUTHERLY              
FLOW DRAWING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA AND DEEP MOISTURE                
INTO MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY              
JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST               
FOR NOW.                                                                        
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL PUSH INTO EASTERN ONTARIO ON TUESDAY. THE              
CLOSED LOW WILL SHIFT INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. THE ACCOMPANYING WEAK            
TROUGH WILL RELOCATE OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. A WEAK RIDGE FOLLOWING            
THE TROUGH WILL ALSO PUSH INTO MANITOBA. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME WEAK              
TROUGH ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM WILL SETTLE OVER THE WESTERN U.P.               
AND LAKE SUPERIOR. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST BLANKETING MUCH             
OF THE EAST COAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK INTO WESTERN LAKE                  
SUPERIOR. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW WARM MOIST AIR IN            
THE FORECAST AREA. THUS WITH THE INSTABILITY OVER THE WESTERN U.P.              
AND THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...I PLAN TO START TO CALL FOR SOME                   
SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN U.P. ON TUESDAY.                                       
THE CUT OFF LOW OVER MISSOURI WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI             
RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ACCOMPANYING TROUGH OVER MINNESOTA              
WILL WEAKEN EVEN MORE AS IT SHIFTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS LOW             
WILL DRAW MORE OF THE WARM MOIST GULF AIR INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES            
REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.             
THUS CHANCE OF SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE MORE LIKELY...SO WILL CALL                 
FOR SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.                                            
THE CLOSED LOW OVER MISSOURI WILL RELOCATE OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS ON            
WEDNESDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL RACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.            
THE SURFACE LOW WILL EDGE INTO NORTHEAST MANITOBA. THE ASSOCIATED               
COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. THERE WILL STILL BE                  
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THIS SHORTWAVE INSTABILITY               
AND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...TO KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE                     
FORECASTS. GFS GUIDANCE CALLING FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON                      
WEDNESDAY.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT KCMX/KSAW THROUGH THE FCST                  
PERIOD AS A DRY EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND HIGH PRESSURE                    
DROPPING SOUTH OF JAMES BAY.  TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD...AS THE            
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES...WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS CAN BE                   
EXPECTED...ALONG WITH LOWERING CEILINGS THAT SHOULD STILL REMAIN                
VFR. PRECIPITATION MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 18Z OR SLIGHTLY BEFORE...HAVE            
ADDED PROB30 AFTER 17Z.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
LIGHT WIND REGIME OVER LAKE SUPERIOR UNDER A HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL               
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING ERLY WINDS TONIGHT THRU MON NIGHT AS A HIGH              
PRES CENTER BUILDS E OF LAKE SUPERIOR OVER THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC                   
BORDER. LOOK FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS TO OCCUR OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR            
DURING THIS PATTERN...BTWN THE APOSTLE ISLANDS AND THE MN SHORE.                
WINDS SHOULD REACH 30KT BY SUN EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL                
THEN SHIFT TO CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR MON/TUE AS WINDS VEER SE              
AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROF. PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS TUE NIGHT THRU THU            
AS A TROF PASSES THRU THE UPPER LAKES. EXPECT WINDS GENERALLY IN THE            
10-20KT RANGE WITH OCCASIONAL 15-25KT.                                          
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE                                                            
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...DLG                                                                
AVIATION...KF                                                                   
MARINE...VOSS                                                                   
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
732 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND                       
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT.                                            
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CLOSED LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL               
QUEBEC...A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH FROM MISSOURI INTO EASTERN                     
MANITOBA. A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS OVER ROCKIES. A SURFACE ANALYSIS                 
DEPICTS A HIGH OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND BLANKETS MUCH OF THE GREAT             
LAKES REGION AND A LOW OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. A STATIONARY                
FRONT EXTENDS EAST FROM THIS LOW ACROSS MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER                
VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY. A TROUGH ALSO STRETCHES              
NORTHWEST FROM THE SAME LOW INTO NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. A WEAK              
MID LEVEL TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE QUEBEC LOW IS SWEEPING THROUGH             
LAKE SUPERIOR AND CENTRAL ONTARIO PRODUCING SOME CLOUD COVER OVER               
THE AREA TONIGHT. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE BEING EJECTED OUT OF              
THE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES AND ARE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ONE OF             
THE SHORTWAVES EJECTED OUT OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE              
RIDGE AND BECOME FOCUSED OVER THE IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA LATE              
TODAY. DEEP MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THE SHORTWAVE.                                 
THE QUEBEC LOW WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO...WHILE              
HOLDING THE MINNESOTA RIDGE STATIONARY. AS THIS LOW SETTLE                      
SOUTH...THE HIGH OVER ONTARIO WILL SHIFT A LITTLE EAST INTO JAMES               
BAY. THIS WILL ALSO HOLD THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATIONARY             
AS WELL. THE SHORTWAVE IN THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO                   
WISCONSIN AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS             
OF 1 INCH WILL BLANKET MUCH OVER THE DAKOTAS...SOUTHERN MINNESOTA               
AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. OVER THE FORECAST AREA...CONDITIONS WILL BE             
DRIER AND MORE STABLE. THUS PLAN TO KEEP THE CWA DRY. THERE SHOULD              
BE SOME CLOUD COVER TODAY...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN CWA CLOSER TO               
SHORTWAVE WRAPPING AROUND THE ONTARIO LOW. SOUNDING FORECAST SUGGEST            
THIS WILL BE MAINLY AC. IT SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER OVER THE WEST              
WHERE THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUN.                                                 
THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN ONTARIO WILL SETTLE INTO SOUTHEAST               
ONTARIO TONIGHT ALLOWING THE RIDGE OVER MINNESOTA TO EDGE EAST INTO             
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE HIGH OVER JAMES BAY WILL SETTLE A LITTLE             
SOUTH ALSO INTO EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO. THE LOW OVER CENTRAL PLAINS               
WILL LIFT INTO THE DAKOTAS. A JET MAX WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE FORECAST            
AREA. PLACING THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER WISCONSIN.              
GFS/NAM SHOWING THAT THE DEEP MOISTURE FIELD AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY               
WILL REACH TO JUST SOUTH OF THE WISCONSIN/U.P. BORDER. FOR NOW THE              
SHOWERS SHOULD STAY JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE             
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SUGGEST THAT THERE                 
SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER.                                                
THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO WILL SHIFT EAST INTO                   
SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON MONDAY...ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL             
ONTARIO AND THE FORECAST AREA. THE DAKOTA LOW WILL DEVELOP INTO A               
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. A LOW WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN            
THIS TROUGH OVER KANSAS. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER EAST                 
CENTRAL ONTARIO SLOWING THE PROGRESS OF THE DAKOTAS TROUGH SO IT                
WILL ONLY REACH THE DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA BORDER. MODELS CONTINUE TO                
SHOW THAT THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL STAY JUST TO THE WEST OF THE                   
FORECAST AREA.                                                                  
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO EASTERN DAKOTAS AND THE                     
ASSOCIATED LOW OVER KANSAS WILL LIFT INTO NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT. THE            
SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT TO JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE SURFACE              
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM AS IT TREKS INTO                  
MINNESOTA BEHIND THE HIGH. TOGETHER THESE WILL PRODUCE A SOUTHERLY              
FLOW DRAWING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA AND DEEP MOISTURE                
INTO MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY              
JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST               
FOR NOW.                                                                        
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL PUSH INTO EASTERN ONTARIO ON TUESDAY. THE              
CLOSED LOW WILL SHIFT INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. THE ACCOMPANYING WEAK            
TROUGH WILL RELOCATE OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. A WEAK RIDGE FOLLOWING            
THE TROUGH WILL ALSO PUSH INTO MANITOBA. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME WEAK              
TROUGH ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM WILL SETTLE OVER THE WESTERN U.P.               
AND LAKE SUPERIOR. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST BLANKETING MUCH             
OF THE EAST COAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK INTO WESTERN LAKE                  
SUPERIOR. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW WARM MOIST AIR IN            
THE FORECAST AREA. THUS WITH THE INSTABILITY OVER THE WESTERN U.P.              
AND THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...I PLAN TO START TO CALL FOR SOME                   
SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN U.P. ON TUESDAY.                                       
THE CUT OFF LOW OVER MISSOURI WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI             
RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ACCOMPANYING TROUGH OVER MINNESOTA              
WILL WEAKEN EVEN MORE AS IT SHIFTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS LOW             
WILL DRAW MORE OF THE WARM MOIST GULF AIR INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES            
REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.             
THUS CHANCE OF SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE MORE LIKELY...SO WILL CALL                 
FOR SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.                                            
THE CLOSED LOW OVER MISSOURI WILL RELOCATE OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS ON            
WEDNESDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL RACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.            
THE SURFACE LOW WILL EDGE INTO NORTHEAST MANITOBA. THE ASSOCIATED               
COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. THERE WILL STILL BE                  
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THIS SHORTWAVE INSTABILITY               
AND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...TO KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE                     
FORECASTS. GFS GUIDANCE CALLING FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON                      
WEDNESDAY.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT KCMX/KSAW THROUGH THE FCST                  
PERIOD AS A DRY ERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING               
SOUTH OF JAMES BAY.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
LIGHT WIND REGIME OVER LAKE SUPERIOR UNDER A HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL               
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING ERLY WINDS TONIGHT THRU MON NIGHT AS A HIGH              
PRES CENTER BUILDS E OF LAKE SUPERIOR OVER THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC                   
BORDER. LOOK FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS TO OCCUR OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR            
DURING THIS PATTERN...BTWN THE APOSTLE ISLANDS AND THE MN SHORE.                
WINDS SHOULD REACH 30KT BY SUN EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL                
THEN SHIFT TO CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR MON/TUE AS WINDS VEER SE              
AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROF. PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS TUE NIGHT THRU THU            
AS A TROF PASSES THRU THE UPPER LAKES. EXPECT WINDS GENERALLY IN THE            
10-20KT RANGE WITH OCCASIONAL 15-25KT.                                          
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE                                                            
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...DLG                                                                
AVIATION...GM                                                                   
MARINE...VOSS                                                                   
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION                          
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
209 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED              
PATTERN OVER NAMERICA...FEATURING A TROF ALONG THE W COAST...A                  
PRONOUNCED RIDGE EXTENDING N THRU CNTRL CANADA AND A TROF OVER THE              
NE CONUS/ERN CANADA. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE ERN TROF...A SHORTWAVE              
WAS DROPPING S THRU NRN ONTARIO. ASSOCIATED JET STREAK WAS                      
SUPPORTING A RIBBON OF -SHRA FROM NW OF CYQT TO THE MANITOBA BORDER.            
PCPN HAS DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY FROM EARLIER TODAY...AND              
THE MID CLOUD DECK HAS HAD A TOUGH TIME SPREADING SE TO UPPER MI.               
OTHERWISE...LAKE EFFECT -SHRA OVER LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NCNTRL UPPER              
MI HAVE TRANSITIONED TO JUST INLAND -SHRA (SPRINKLES NOW)...TYPICAL             
OF EARLY SEASON LAKE EFFECT PCPN AS DAYTIME HEATING DISRUPTS LAKE               
EFFECT PROCESSES.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT/SUN)...                                                    
SMALL BATCH OF PCPN TO THE NW SHOULDN`T BE AN ISSUE HERE TONIGHT AS             
FORCING IS TO WEAKEN...AND THAT APPEARS ON TRACK GIVEN DIMINISHING              
PCPN TRENDS EVIDENT ON RADAR IMAGERY OVER THE LAST FEW HRS. IN                  
ADDITION...ANTECEDENT DRY AIRMASS SHOULD ALSO WORK TO LIMIT PCPN                
(AFTN TAMDAR SOUNDING FROM KCMX SHOWED A PRONOUNCED WEDGE OF DRY AIR            
WITH DWPT DEPRESSIONS UPWARDS OF 33C AROUND 750MB). OTHERWISE...WITH            
850MB TEMPS TONIGHT EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND -1C E TO 2C W...              
THERE WILL STILL BE MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR LAKE EFFECT -SHRA TO                
REDEVELOP OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. AT THE SFC...NNW-SSE ORIENTED HIGH            
PRES RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS CNTRL/ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...                   
ESPECIALLY THRU THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW LAND               
BREEZES TO DEVELOP WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN ANY DEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT            
-SHRA REMAINING OFFSHORE. LATE TONIGHT...IT`S POSSIBLE A FEW -SHRA              
MAY REACH PORTIONS OF NCNTRL UPPER MI OR THE KEWEENAW AS LIGHT ERLY             
GRADIENT FLOW DEVELOPS DUE TO HIGH PRES RIDGE DRIFTING E A BIT.                 
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MARGINAL OVERLAKE INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR             
LAND BREEZES TO HOLD DOMINATE THRU THE NIGHT AS SUGGESTED BY THE                
RUC13...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST. INLAND...CALM WINDS AND LIMITED               
CLOUD COVER FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE NIGHT WILL RESULT IN                  
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT. FAVORED THE LOWER END OF AVBL MOS GUIDANCE FOR            
MINS. MAY SEE SOME UPPER 20S IN THE USUAL COLD SPOTS.                           
SUN...MID/UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY EXTENDING N THRU CNTRL CANADA WILL              
CLOSE OFF INTO A HIGH IN THE VCNTY OF NE MANITOBA WHILE THE ERN TROF            
WILL BECOME REORIENTED WITH AXIS FROM THE UPPER LAKES/ONTARIO TO NEW            
ENGLAND/SRN QUEBEC. FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...ALL THE MODELS HAVE             
STRUGGLED WITH THE SHAPE OF UPSTREAM RIDGE/CLOSED HIGH AND                      
LOCATION/ORIENTATION OF THE DOWNSTREAM TROF AXIS. THIS HAS BEEN                 
IMPORTANT FOR THE FCST HERE BECAUSE THE LOCATION OF THE JET                     
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF WILL SERVE TO FOCUS A BAND OF PCPN UNDER A             
RATHER IMPRESSIVE UPPER DIVERGENCE AREA IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE            
JET AND IN A ZONE OF LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THE DIFFICULTY THE            
MODELS HAVE HAD WITH THIS EVOLVING PATTERN HAS RESULTED IN                      
SUCCESSIVE RUNS OFTEN FLIP FLOPPING FROM A DRY FCST TO A WET FCST               
ACROSS UPPER MI. AS THIS PATTERN EVOLVES SUN...THERE IS MODEL                   
AGREEMENT NOW THAT FORCING WILL BE FOCUSED WELL SW OF HERE. IN                  
ADDITION...STRENGTHENING SFC HIGH ACROSS ONTARIO DOWNSTREAM OF                  
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER HIGH WILL PROVIDE A FEED OF DRY AIR INTO THE               
AREA. WILL THUS MAINTAIN A DRY FCST SUN. MODERATING AIRMASS WILL                
LEAD TO WARMER CONDITIONS. ETA MOS NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE FOR MAX              
TEMPS.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                   
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE 500MB RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND THE            
CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL SHIFT EASTWARD.  IT WILL BE OVER THE                 
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON...BEING PUSHED FARTHER                
EASTWARD BY A CUT OFF LOW THAT FORMED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS                  
EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS.  THE RESULT FOR UPPER MICHIGAN             
WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY WEATHER...WITH DRY EASTERLY WINDS                       
CONTINUING THE DRY OUT THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.                      
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISING FROM THE 40S AND 50S OF               
LATE...TO THE LOWER 60S FROM MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.           
THE 500MB RIDGE WILL INEVITABLY SLIDE TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY               
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS                 
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE BACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FOR MID WEEK.               
BY 12Z TUESDAY...COLD FRONT SHOULD STRETCH FROM NORTHEASTERN                    
MANITOBA THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA TO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.  THIS               
WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK AS IT CROSSES UPPER MICHIGAN SOMETIME EARLY                 
WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO A SOUTHWESTERLY                     
DIRECTION AND INCREASE MOISTURE A LITTLE MORE.  THE GFS...BEING                 
FASTER...IS STRONGEST WITH THIS FEATURE WEDNESDAY MORNING.                      
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PER HPC GUIDANCE A BLEND OF THE 00Z/04             
GFS AND ECMWF RUNS WAS UTILIZED THIS PERIOD...DAY 4/WEDNESDAY                   
THROUGH DAY 5/SATURDAY.                                                         
THE EXACT TIMING OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL PASSAGE REMAINS                
PROBLEMATIC...WITH MODELS DIFFERING ON THE POSITION OF THE SFC LOW              
BY ROUGHLY 500 MILES BY 12Z THURSDAY.  THE 06Z/04 GFS AND 00Z/04                
CANADIAN HAD THE LOW LOCATED OVER HUDSON BAY...WHILE THE 00Z/04                 
ECMWF STILL HAD THIS FEATURE OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA.  BOTH THE 12Z/04            
GFS AND NAM TRENDED SLIGHTLY FASTER.  STILL GRID WISE...FEW CHANGES             
WERE NEEDED.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT KCMX/KSAW DURING THIS FCST                  
PERIOD WITH MID CLOUDS DEPARTING LATE TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A                 
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE MOVING OUT LATE TONIGHT.                                 
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
LIGHT WIND REGIME OVER LAKE SUPERIOR UNDER HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL GIVE            
WAY TO INCREASING ERLY WINDS TONIGHT THRU MON NIGHT AS HIGH PRES                
CENTER BUILDS TO THE E OF LAKE SUPERIOR. UNDER SUCH A PATTERN...THE             
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE WRN LAKE BTWN THE APOSTLE                   
ISLANDS AND THE MN SHORE. WINDS SHOULD REACH 30KT LATE SUN AFTN AND             
SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW GALE GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT LOCALLY.                     
STRONGEST WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR                  
MON/TUE AS WINDS VEER SE AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROF. PRES GRADIENT               
SLACKENS TUE NIGHT THRU THU AS A TROF PASSES THRU THE UPPER LAKES.              
EXPECT WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-20KT RANGE WITH OCCASIONAL 15-25KT.            
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE                                                            
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON                                                            
LONG TERM...KF                                                                  
AVIATION...GM                                                                   
MARINE...ROLFSON                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE                                            
1107 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...06Z TAF. FORECAST REMAINS ON TARGET FOR A SIGNIFICANT               
RAIN EVENING DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. IN THE MEAN                
TIME...LOOK FOR PASSING SHOWERS AND VFR CIGS AROUND 8K. LOOK FOR                
MVFR CIGS TO SETTLE MONDAY MORNING AS THE RAIN BEGINS IN EARNEST.               
OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE NOTED DURING MORE INTENSE                 
RAIN AND ISOLATED STORM EVENTS MONDAY.                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 927 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2008/                          
UPDATE...JUST A SHORT COMMENT REGARDING PRECIPITATION. CWFA HAS                 
STRUGGLED WITH RAINFALL DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A                 
BIT MORE IN THE LAST 30 MINUTES OR SO OVER THE WESTERN/NORTHERN                 
CWFA. OPTED TO LOWER PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS               
AS A LARGE PART OF THE CWFA WILL EXPERIENCE ONLY VERY LIGHT                     
SHOWERS. BY FAR...THE MAIN RAIN EVENT WILL BE MONDAY AND MONDAY                 
NIGHT. 00Z NAM STILL ON TARGET FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN EXCESS                
OF ONE INCH FOR THE CWFA DURING THAT TIME FRAME.                                
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2008/                           
AVIATION...00Z TAF. ACTIVE 24HR PERIOD FOR THE KGRI AREA AS                     
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE EJECTS ONTO THE PLAINS DURING                   
THE LAST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. STREAM OF MOISTURE WITH THIS              
SYSTEM IS PLENTIFUL FOR EARLY OCTOBER...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO                 
SEE A SCATTERED OF SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS EARLY IN THE FORECAST                   
PERIOD. THE MAIN RAIN WILL BE DURING THE MONDAY...WITH PREVAILING               
TSRA AND MVFR CIGS LIKELY NEARLY ALL DAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY                  
BACK AROUND TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY.                             
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2008/                           
SHORT TERM...PAST MORNING UPPER AIR DATA ALONG WITH RECENT WATER                
VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS               
THE ROCKIES.  EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH IS A CLOSED CIRCULATION                
SITTING OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.  QUICK                 
EXAMINATION OF REGIONAL SURFACE OBS SHOWS A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW               
PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH A SECOND LOW SITTING JUST EAST            
OF THE BLACK HILLS REGION.  BETWEEN THESE TWO LOWS A WEAK                       
FRONT/DRYLINE IS SHOWN STRETCHING ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO            
NORTHEAST COLORADO. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE           
HAS BEEN ADVECTED BACK INTO THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S            
TO LOWER 60S SEEN ACROSS THE AREA.  DESPITE THIS DEEPER                         
MOISTURE...LAPS AND RUC ANALYSIS DATA SHOW LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY             
FROM 600MB DOWN TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE AREA.  NONETHELESS...A                
BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL IS SEEN STRETCHING FROM THE TEXAS            
PANHANDLE...ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.             
WHILE THE PRECIP OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE IS THE RESULT OF DEEP                 
CONVECTION FIRING FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS WEST TEXAS...THE MAINTENANCE             
OF THIS PRECIP BAND FURTHER NORTH APPEARS TO BE THE RESULT OF A BAND            
OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS PRODUCED BY THE LATENT HEAT RELEASE                  
COMING FROM THIS PRECIP AND/OR MID LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION.                   
AS THE DAY GIVES WAY TO THE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE               
REGION...THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW IS SHOWN TO TRACK EASTWARD               
INTO THE PLAINS. AT LEAST FOR THIS EVENING...THE MID LEVEL                      
DEFORMATION AND RESULTANT FRONTOGENESIS FROM THIS LOW SHOULD STAY               
FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BE A NON FACTOR FOR THE FORECAST AREA.  GENERALLY            
THIS WILL LEAVE THE CWA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LIGHT                        
PRECIP BAND OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS                 
SHOULD BE LIGHT. HOWEVER...STRONGER CONVECTION DEVELOPING CLOSER TO             
THE FRONT/DRYLINE WHERE SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS THE             
HIGH PLAINS...MAY BEGIN TO SNEAK INTO THE AREA BY MID EVENING.  THE             
CONVECTION ITSELF WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY                  
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.                                                      
THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL THEN BEGIN TO PICK UP LATE TONIGHT INTO              
EARLY ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION. A BROAD            
AREA OF MID LEVEL DEFORMATION AND RESULTANT FRONTOGENESIS WILL                  
SPREAD INTO THE AREA AND ALONG WITH THE REMNANTS OF DEEP CONVECTION             
SLIDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD                      
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING             
THE AREA AS WELL.  CHANCES LOOK HIGH ENOUGH THAT CATEGORICAL POPS               
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.  EXPECT RAINFALL TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO             
RESULT IN SOME AREAS SEEING RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES BY LATE            
SUNDAY NIGHT.                                                                   
IN TERMS OF MONDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS ARE NOW SLOWING DOWN THE                  
MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW WITH A HEALTHY BAND OF MID LEVEL                      
FRONTOGENESIS STILL SEEN ACROSS THE CWA IN THE 700-600MB LAYER.                 
EXPECT THIS TO ALLOW THE MAIN PRECIP BAND TO CONTINUE IMPACTING THE             
AREA INTO THE EVENING TO EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. BASED ON THIS                   
SETUP...HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE POPS INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE OVER             
MOST OF THE CWA DURING THE EVENING AND IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE              
CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN MODERATE TO HEAVY             
AT TIMES WITHIN THIS BAND BUT ANY FLOODING ISSUES SHOULD REMAIN AT              
THE NUISANCE LEVEL.                                                             
LONG TERM...12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE              
CONCERNS EVOLUTION OF SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE WEEK INTO THE              
WEEKEND.                                                                        
BY TUESDAY MORNING...FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING THE AREA WITH                 
PRECIPITATION MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. KEPT A SMALL POP FOR AREAS                
EAST OF HWY 281 IN THE MORNING IN CASE SYSTEM IS A LITTLE SLOWER TO             
PUSH OUT...BUT THE MAIN EVENT WILL BE OVER BY THIS TIME. STRONG                 
SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING SHARPLY               
CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND ON                  
TUESDAY UNDER INCREASED INSOLATION...BUT STILL BE A TOUCH ON THE                
COOL SIDE WITH COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE AND A NORTH/NORTHWEST WIND. A            
FAST-MOVING UPPER WAVE SKIRTING ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER SENDS A            
COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A DRY AIRMASS WILL BE              
IN PLACE IN WAKE OF PREVIOUS SYSTEM...AND THUS FRONT LOOKS TO BE                
MOISTURE STARVED AS IT MOVES IN AND NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP TO                 
ACCOMPANY IT. THE FRONT MOVING IN DURING THE DAY WILL PRODUCE A                 
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST GRADIENT IN TEMPS. SOUTHEAST AREAS SHOULD                
CONTINUE TO REBOUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT/S ARRIVAL. OF COURSE TEMPS               
WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON FRONTAL TIMING...BUT WILL AIM HIGHS IN THE               
UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO LOWER/MID 70S SOUTHEAST.                                 
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS KANSAS...BEFORE                
EVENTUALLY LIFTING BACK NORTH THROUGH THE CWA AS A WARM FRONT                   
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE KEPT THINGS DRY THROUGH THURSDAY                      
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH HAVE SOME CONCERNS THAT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE               
CWA COULD GET CLIPPED BY SOME PRECIP ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT BUT              
POSSIBLY EVEN AS EARLY AS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH            
A BAND OF MID-LEVEL /H7-H5/ FRONTOGENESIS THAT SETS UP FROM ROUGHLY             
UT TO SOUTHERN MN ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER JET STREAK ORIENTED            
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. BETTER FOCUS AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO             
BE JUST NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS            
AND PERHAPS INCREASE POPS IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.                              
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY THEN RAMPS UP GREATLY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.             
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE CONCERNING HANDLING OF NEXT              
SYSTEM...LEADING TO LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE. GFS CONTINUES TO LOOK              
TOO PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM...WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS MUCH                  
SLOWER AS IT DIGS A DEEP CUTOFF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. HPC                     
PREFERENCE LEANED TOWARD A SOLUTION IN BETWEEN THE TWO SIMILAR TO               
THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE TIMING...AND GENERALLY FOLLOWED ALONG THOSE SAME             
LINES. HAVE SMALL PRECIP CHANCES BEGINNING FRIDAY AS WARM FRONT                 
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA AND H85 THETA-E                       
ADVECTION INCREASES. CONTINUED WITH SMALL PRECIP CHANCES SATURDAY               
INTO SUNDAY GIVEN CONTINUED THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF FRONTAL                  
PASSAGE...AND THEN THE FRONT EVENTUALLY COMING THROUGH. COULD EVEN HAVE         
SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE WORKING IN BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND FROM                   
REMNANTS OF NORBERT. TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE REMAINS HIGHLY UP                
IN THE AIR...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE POTENTIAL FOR A SHOT OF CHILLY                
AIR COMING IN BEHIND THE FRONT ONCE IT FINALLY COMES THROUGH. AT                
THIS POINT...UNFORTUNATELY CAN/T SAY MUCH MORE THAN IT COULD VERY               
WELL BE THE COLDEST AIR WE/VE SEEN SO FAR THIS SEASON AND                       
POTENTIALLY THE FIRST FREEZE FOR THE AREA ARRIVING ANYWHERE FROM                
SATURDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT. BUT ONCE AGAIN...STILL A LOT TO                 
BE DETERMINED AND CONFIDENCE AT THIS JUNCTURE IS TOWARD THE BOTTOM              
END OF THE SPECTRUM. KB                                                         
&&                                                                              
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE                                            
927 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...JUST A SHORT COMMENT REGARDING PRECIPITATION. CWFA HAS                
STRUGGLED WITH RAINFALL DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A                 
BIT MORE IN THE LAST 30 MINUTES OR SO OVER THE WESTERN/NORTHERN                 
CWFA. OPTED TO LOWER PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS               
AS A LARGE PART OF THE CWFA WILL EXPERINCE ONLY VERY LIGHT                      
SHOWERS. BY FAR...THE MAIN RAIN EVENT WILL BE MONDAY AND MONDAY                 
NIGHT. 00Z NAM STILL ON TARGET FOR WIDSPREAD RAINFALL IN EXCESS                 
OF ONE INCH FOR THE CWFA DURING THAT TIME FRAME.                                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2008/                          
AVIATION...00Z TAF. ACTIVE 24HR PERIOD FOR THE KGRI AREA AS                     
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE EJECTS ONTO THE PLAINS DURING                   
THE LAST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. STREAM OF MOISTURE WITH THIS              
SYSTEM IS PLENTIFUL FOR EARLY OCTOBER...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO                 
SEE A SCATTERED OF SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS EARLY IN THE FORECAST                   
PERIOD. THE MAIN RAIN WILL BE DURING THE MONDAY...WITH PREVAILING               
TSRA AND MVFR CIGS LIKELY NEARLY ALL DAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY                  
BACK AROUND TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY.                             
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2008/                           
SHORT TERM...PAST MORNING UPPER AIR DATA ALONG WITH RECENT WATER                
VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS               
THE ROCKIES.  EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH IS A CLOSED CIRCULATION                
SITTING OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.  QUICK                 
EXAMINATION OF REGIONAL SURFACE OBS SHOWS A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW               
PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH A SECOND LOW SITTING JUST EAST            
OF THE BLACK HILLS REGION.  BETWEEN THESE TWO LOWS A WEAK                       
FRONT/DRYLINE IS SHOWN STRETCHING ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO            
NORTHEAST COLORADO. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE           
HAS BEEN ADVECTED BACK INTO THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S            
TO LOWER 60S SEEN ACROSS THE AREA.  DESPITE THIS DEEPER                         
MOISTURE...LAPS AND RUC ANALYSIS DATA SHOW LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY             
FROM 600MB DOWN TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE AREA.  NONETHELESS...A                
BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL IS SEEN STRETCHING FROM THE TEXAS            
PANHANDLE...ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.             
WHILE THE PRECIP OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE IS THE RESULT OF DEEP                 
CONVECTION FIRING FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS WEST TEXAS...THE MAINTENANCE             
OF THIS PRECIP BAND FURTHER NORTH APPEARS TO BE THE RESULT OF A BAND            
OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS PRODUCED BY THE LATENT HEAT RELEASE                  
COMING FROM THIS PRECIP AND/OR MID LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION.                   
AS THE DAY GIVES WAY TO THE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE               
REGION...THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW IS SHOWN TO TRACK EASTWARD               
INTO THE PLAINS. AT LEAST FOR THIS EVENING...THE MID LEVEL                      
DEFORMATION AND RESULTANT FRONTOGENESIS FROM THIS LOW SHOULD STAY               
FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BE A NON FACTOR FOR THE FORECAST AREA.  GENERALLY            
THIS WILL LEAVE THE CWA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LIGHT                        
PRECIP BAND OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS                 
SHOULD BE LIGHT. HOWEVER...STRONGER CONVECTION DEVELOPING CLOSER TO             
THE FRONT/DRYLINE WHERE SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS THE             
HIGH PLAINS...MAY BEGIN TO SNEAK INTO THE AREA BY MID EVENING.  THE             
CONVECTION ITSELF WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY                  
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.                                                      
THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL THEN BEGIN TO PICK UP LATE TONIGHT INTO              
EARLY ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION. A BROAD            
AREA OF MID LEVEL DEFORMATION AND RESULTANT FRONTOGENESIS WILL                  
SPREAD INTO THE AREA AND ALONG WITH THE REMNANTS OF DEEP CONVECTION             
SLIDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD                      
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING             
THE AREA AS WELL.  CHANCES LOOK HIGH ENOUGH THAT CATEGORICAL POPS               
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.  EXPECT RAINFALL TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO             
RESULT IN SOME AREAS SEEING RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES BY LATE            
SUNDAY NIGHT.                                                                   
IN TERMS OF MONDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS ARE NOW SLOWING DOWN THE                  
MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW WITH A HEALTHY BAND OF MID LEVEL                      
FRONTOGENESIS STILL SEEN ACROSS THE CWA IN THE 700-600MB LAYER.                 
EXPECT THIS TO ALLOW THE MAIN PRECIP BAND TO CONTINUE IMPACTING THE             
AREA INTO THE EVENING TO EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. BASED ON THIS                   
SETUP...HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE POPS INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE OVER             
MOST OF THE CWA DURING THE EVENING AND IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE              
CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN MODERATE TO HEAVY             
AT TIMES WITHIN THIS BAND BUT ANY FLOODING ISSUES SHOULD REMAIN AT              
THE NUISANCE LEVEL.                                                             
LONG TERM...12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE              
CONCERNS EVOLUTION OF SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE WEEK INTO THE              
WEEKEND.                                                                        
BY TUESDAY MORNING...FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING THE AREA WITH                 
PRECIPITATION MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. KEPT A SMALL POP FOR AREAS                
EAST OF HWY 281 IN THE MORNING IN CASE SYSTEM IS A LITTLE SLOWER TO             
PUSH OUT...BUT THE MAIN EVENT WILL BE OVER BY THIS TIME. STRONG                 
SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING SHARPLY               
CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND ON                  
TUESDAY UNDER INCREASED INSOLATION...BUT STILL BE A TOUCH ON THE                
COOL SIDE WITH COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE AND A NORTH/NORTHWEST WIND. A            
FAST-MOVING UPPER WAVE SKIRTING ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER SENDS A            
COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A DRY AIRMASS WILL BE              
IN PLACE IN WAKE OF PREVIOUS SYSTEM...AND THUS FRONT LOOKS TO BE                
MOISTURE STARVED AS IT MOVES IN AND NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP TO                 
ACCOMPANY IT. THE FRONT MOVING IN DURING THE DAY WILL PRODUCE A                 
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST GRADIENT IN TEMPS. SOUTHEAST AREAS SHOULD                
CONTINUE TO REBOUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT/S ARRIVAL. OF COURSE TEMPS               
WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON FRONTAL TIMING...BUT WILL AIM HIGHS IN THE               
UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO LOWER/MID 70S SOUTHEAST.                                 
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS KANSAS...BEFORE                
EVENTUALLY LIFTING BACK NORTH THROUGH THE CWA AS A WARM FRONT                   
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE KEPT THINGS DRY THROUGH THURSDAY                      
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH HAVE SOME CONCERNS THAT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE               
CWA COULD GET CLIPPED BY SOME PRECIP ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT BUT              
POSSIBLY EVEN AS EARLY AS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH            
A BAND OF MID-LEVEL /H7-H5/ FRONTOGENESIS THAT SETS UP FROM ROUGHLY             
UT TO SOUTHERN MN ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER JET STREAK ORIENTED            
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. BETTER FOCUS AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO             
BE JUST NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS            
AND PERHAPS INCREASE POPS IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.                              
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY THEN RAMPS UP GREATLY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.             
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE CONCERNING HANDLING OF NEXT              
SYSTEM...LEADING TO LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE. GFS CONTINUES TO LOOK              
TOO PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM...WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS MUCH                  
SLOWER AS IT DIGS A DEEP CUTOFF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. HPC                     
PREFERENCE LEANED TOWARD A SOLUTION IN BETWEEN THE TWO SIMILAR TO               
THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE TIMING...AND GENERALLY FOLLOWED ALONG THOSE SAME             
LINES. HAVE SMALL PRECIP CHANCES BEGINNING FRIDAY AS WARM FRONT                 
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA AND H85 THETA-E                       
ADVECTION INCREASES. CONTINUED WITH SMALL PRECIP CHANCES SATURDAY               
INTO SUNDAY GIVEN CONTINUED THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF FRONTAL                  
PASSAGE...AND THEN THE FRONT EVENTUALLY COMING THROUGH. COULD EVEN HAVE         
SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE WORKING IN BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND FROM                   
REMNANTS OF NORBERT. TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE REMAINS HIGHLY UP                
IN THE AIR...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE POTENTIAL FOR A SHOT OF CHILLY                
AIR COMING IN BEHIND THE FRONT ONCE IT FINALLY COMES THROUGH. AT                
THIS POINT...UNFORTUNATELY CAN/T SAY MUCH MORE THAN IT COULD VERY               
WELL BE THE COLDEST AIR WE/VE SEEN SO FAR THIS SEASON AND                       
POTENTIALLY THE FIRST FREEZE FOR THE AREA ARRIVING ANYWHERE FROM                
SATURDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT. BUT ONCE AGAIN...STILL A LOT TO                 
BE DETERMINED AND CONFIDENCE AT THIS JUNCTURE IS TOWARD THE BOTTOM              
END OF THE SPECTRUM. KB                                                         
&&                                                                              
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE                                            
622 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2008                                                       
.AVIATION...00Z TAF. ACTIVE 24HR PERIOD FOR THE KGRI AREA AS                    
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE EJECTS ONTO THE PLAINS DURING                   
THE LAST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. STREAM OF MOISTURE WITH THIS              
SYSTEM IS PLENTIFUL FOR EARLY OCTOBER...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO                 
SEE A SCATTERED OF SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS EARLY IN THE FORECAST                   
PERIOD. THE MAIN RAIN WILL BE DURING THE MONDAY...WITH PREVAILING               
TSRA AND MVFR CIGS LIKELY NEARLY ALL DAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY                  
BACK AROUND TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY.                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2008/                          
SHORT TERM...PAST MORNING UPPER AIR DATA ALONG WITH RECENT WATER                
VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS               
THE ROCKIES.  EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH IS A CLOSED CIRCULATION                
SITTING OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.  QUICK                 
EXAMINATION OF REGIONAL SURFACE OBS SHOWS A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW               
PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH A SECOND LOW SITTING JUST EAST            
OF THE BLACK HILLS REGION.  BETWEEN THESE TWO LOWS A WEAK                       
FRONT/DRYLINE IS SHOWN STRETCHING ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO            
NORTHEAST COLORADO. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE           
HAS BEEN ADVECTED BACK INTO THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S            
TO LOWER 60S SEEN ACROSS THE AREA.  DESPITE THIS DEEPER                         
MOISTURE...LAPS AND RUC ANALYSIS DATA SHOW LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY             
FROM 600MB DOWN TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE AREA.  NONETHELESS...A                
BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL IS SEEN STRETCHING FROM THE TEXAS            
PANHANDLE...ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.             
WHILE THE PRECIP OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE IS THE RESULT OF DEEP                 
CONVECTION FIRING FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS WEST TEXAS...THE MAINTENANCE             
OF THIS PRECIP BAND FURTHER NORTH APPEARS TO BE THE RESULT OF A BAND            
OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS PRODUCED BY THE LATENT HEAT RELEASE                  
COMING FROM THIS PRECIP AND/OR MID LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION.                   
AS THE DAY GIVES WAY TO THE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE               
REGION...THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW IS SHOWN TO TRACK EASTWARD               
INTO THE PLAINS. AT LEAST FOR THIS EVENING...THE MID LEVEL                      
DEFORMATION AND RESULTANT FRONTOGENESIS FROM THIS LOW SHOULD STAY               
FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BE A NON FACTOR FOR THE FORECAST AREA.  GENERALLY            
THIS WILL LEAVE THE CWA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LIGHT                        
PRECIP BAND OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS                 
SHOULD BE LIGHT. HOWEVER...STRONGER CONVECTION DEVELOPING CLOSER TO             
THE FRONT/DRYLINE WHERE SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS THE             
HIGH PLAINS...MAY BEGIN TO SNEAK INTO THE AREA BY MID EVENING.  THE             
CONVECTION ITSELF WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY                  
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.                                                      
THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL THEN BEGIN TO PICK UP LATE TONIGHT INTO              
EARLY ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION. A BROAD            
AREA OF MID LEVEL DEFORMATION AND RESULTANT FRONTOGENESIS WILL                  
SPREAD INTO THE AREA AND ALONG WITH THE REMNANTS OF DEEP CONVECTION             
SLIDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD                      
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING             
THE AREA AS WELL.  CHANCES LOOK HIGH ENOUGH THAT CATEGORICAL POPS               
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.  EXPECT RAINFALL TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO             
RESULT IN SOME AREAS SEEING RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES BY LATE            
SUNDAY NIGHT.                                                                   
IN TERMS OF MONDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS ARE NOW SLOWING DOWN THE                  
MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW WITH A HEALTHY BAND OF MID LEVEL                      
FRONTOGENESIS STILL SEEN ACROSS THE CWA IN THE 700-600MB LAYER.                 
EXPECT THIS TO ALLOW THE MAIN PRECIP BAND TO CONTINUE IMPACTING THE             
AREA INTO THE EVENING TO EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. BASED ON THIS                   
SETUP...HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE POPS INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE OVER             
MOST OF THE CWA DURING THE EVENING AND IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE              
CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN MODERATE TO HEAVY             
AT TIMES WITHIN THIS BAND BUT ANY FLOODING ISSUES SHOULD REMAIN AT              
THE NUISANCE LEVEL.                                                             
LONG TERM...12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE              
CONCERNS EVOLUTION OF SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE WEEK INTO THE              
WEEKEND.                                                                        
BY TUESDAY MORNING...FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING THE AREA WITH                 
PRECIPITATION MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. KEPT A SMALL POP FOR AREAS                
EAST OF HWY 281 IN THE MORNING IN CASE SYSTEM IS A LITTLE SLOWER TO             
PUSH OUT...BUT THE MAIN EVENT WILL BE OVER BY THIS TIME. STRONG                 
SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING SHARPLY               
CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND ON                  
TUESDAY UNDER INCREASED INSOLATION...BUT STILL BE A TOUCH ON THE                
COOL SIDE WITH COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE AND A NORTH/NORTHWEST WIND. A            
FAST-MOVING UPPER WAVE SKIRTING ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER SENDS A            
COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A DRY AIRMASS WILL BE              
IN PLACE IN WAKE OF PREVIOUS SYSTEM...AND THUS FRONT LOOKS TO BE                
MOISTURE STARVED AS IT MOVES IN AND NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP TO                 
ACCOMPANY IT. THE FRONT MOVING IN DURING THE DAY WILL PRODUCE A                 
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST GRADIENT IN TEMPS. SOUTHEAST AREAS SHOULD                
CONTINUE TO REBOUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT/S ARRIVAL. OF COURSE TEMPS               
WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON FRONTAL TIMING...BUT WILL AIM HIGHS IN THE               
UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO LOWER/MID 70S SOUTHEAST.                                 
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS KANSAS...BEFORE                
EVENTUALLY LIFTING BACK NORTH THROUGH THE CWA AS A WARM FRONT                   
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE KEPT THINGS DRY THROUGH THURSDAY                      
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH HAVE SOME CONCERNS THAT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE               
CWA COULD GET CLIPPED BY SOME PRECIP ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT BUT              
POSSIBLY EVEN AS EARLY AS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH            
A BAND OF MID-LEVEL /H7-H5/ FRONTOGENESIS THAT SETS UP FROM ROUGHLY             
UT TO SOUTHERN MN ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER JET STREAK ORIENTED            
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. BETTER FOCUS AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO             
BE JUST NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS            
AND PERHAPS INCREASE POPS IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.                              
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY THEN RAMPS UP GREATLY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.             
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE CONCERNING HANDLING OF NEXT              
SYSTEM...LEADING TO LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE. GFS CONTINUES TO LOOK              
TOO PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM...WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS MUCH                  
SLOWER AS IT DIGS A DEEP CUTOFF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. HPC                     
PREFERENCE LEANED TOWARD A SOLUTION IN BETWEEN THE TWO SIMILAR TO               
THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE TIMING...AND GENERALLY FOLLOWED ALONG THOSE SAME             
LINES. HAVE SMALL PRECIP CHANCES BEGINNING FRIDAY AS WARM FRONT                 
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA AND H85 THETA-E                       
ADVECTION INCREASES. CONTINUED WITH SMALL PRECIP CHANCES SATURDAY               
INTO SUNDAY GIVEN CONTINUED THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF FRONTAL                  
PASSAGE...AND THEN THE FRONT EVENTUALLY COMING THROUGH. COULD EVEN HAVE         
SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE WORKING IN BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND FROM                   
REMNANTS OF NORBERT. TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE REMAINS HIGHLY UP                
IN THE AIR...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE POTENTIAL FOR A SHOT OF CHILLY                
AIR COMING IN BEHIND THE FRONT ONCE IT FINALLY COMES THROUGH. AT                
THIS POINT...UNFORTUNATELY CAN/T SAY MUCH MORE THAN IT COULD VERY               
WELL BE THE COLDEST AIR WE/VE SEEN SO FAR THIS SEASON AND                       
POTENTIALLY THE FIRST FREEZE FOR THE AREA ARRIVING ANYWHERE FROM                
SATURDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT. BUT ONCE AGAIN...STILL A LOT TO                 
BE DETERMINED AND CONFIDENCE AT THIS JUNCTURE IS TOWARD THE BOTTOM              
END OF THE SPECTRUM. KB                                                         
&&                                                                              
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE                                            
333 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...PAST MORNING UPPER AIR DATA ALONG WITH RECENT WATER               
VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS               
THE ROCKIES.  EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH IS A CLOSED CIRCULATION                
SITTING OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.  QUICK                 
EXAMINATION OF REGIONAL SURFACE OBS SHOWS A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW               
PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH A SECOND LOW SITTING JUST EAST            
OF THE BLACK HILLS REGION.  BETWEEN THESE TWO LOWS A WEAK                       
FRONT/DRYLINE IS SHOWN STRETCHING ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO            
NORTHEAST COLORADO. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE           
HAS BEEN ADVECTED BACK INTO THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S            
TO LOWER 60S SEEN ACROSS THE AREA.  DESPITE THIS DEEPER                         
MOISTURE...LAPS AND RUC ANALYSIS DATA SHOW LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY             
FROM 600MB DOWN TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE AREA.  NONETHELESS...A                
BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL IS SEEN STRETCHING FROM THE TEXAS            
PANHANDLE...ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.             
WHILE THE PRECIP OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE IS THE RESULT OF DEEP                 
CONVECTION FIRING FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS WEST TEXAS...THE MAINTENANCE             
OF THIS PRECIP BAND FURTHER NORTH APPEARS TO BE THE RESULT OF A BAND            
OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS PRODUCED BY THE LATENT HEAT RELEASE                  
COMING FROM THIS PRECIP AND/OR MID LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION.                   
AS THE DAY GIVES WAY TO THE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE               
REGION...THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW IS SHOWN TO TRACK EASTWARD               
INTO THE PLAINS. AT LEAST FOR THIS EVENING...THE MID LEVEL                      
DEFORMATION AND RESULTANT FRONTOGENESIS FROM THIS LOW SHOULD STAY               
FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BE A NON FACTOR FOR THE FORECAST AREA.  GENERALLY            
THIS WILL LEAVE THE CWA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LIGHT                        
PRECIP BAND OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS                 
SHOULD BE LIGHT. HOWEVER...STRONGER CONVECTION DEVELOPING CLOSER TO             
THE FRONT/DRYLINE WHERE SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS THE             
HIGH PLAINS...MAY BEGIN TO SNEAK INTO THE AREA BY MID EVENING.  THE             
CONVECTION ITSELF WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY                  
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.                                                      
THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL THEN BEGIN TO PICK UP LATE TONIGHT INTO              
EARLY ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION. A BROAD            
AREA OF MID LEVEL DEFORMATION AND RESULTANT FRONTOGENESIS WILL                  
SPREAD INTO THE AREA AND ALONG WITH THE REMNANTS OF DEEP CONVECTION             
SLIDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD                      
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING             
THE AREA AS WELL.  CHANCES LOOK HIGH ENOUGH THAT CATEGORICAL POPS               
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.  EXPECT RAINFALL TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO             
RESULT IN SOME AREAS SEEING RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES BY LATE            
SUNDAY NIGHT.                                                                   
IN TERMS OF MONDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS ARE NOW SLOWING DOWN THE                  
MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW WITH A HEALTHY BAND OF MID LEVEL                      
FRONTOGENESIS STILL SEEN ACROSS THE CWA IN THE 700-600MB LAYER.                 
EXPECT THIS TO ALLOW THE MAIN PRECIP BAND TO CONTINUE IMPACTING THE             
AREA INTO THE EVENING TO EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. BASED ON THIS                   
SETUP...HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE POPS INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE OVER             
MOST OF THE CWA DURING THE EVENING AND IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE              
CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN MODERATE TO HEAVY             
AT TIMES WITHIN THIS BAND BUT ANY FLOODING ISSUES SHOULD REMAIN AT              
THE NUISANCE LEVEL.                                                             
.LONG TERM...12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE             
CONCERNS EVOLUTION OF SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE WEEK INTO THE              
WEEKEND.                                                                        
BY TUESDAY MORNING...FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING THE AREA WITH                 
PRECIPITATION MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. KEPT A SMALL POP FOR AREAS                
EAST OF HWY 281 IN THE MORNING IN CASE SYSTEM IS A LITTLE SLOWER TO             
PUSH OUT...BUT THE MAIN EVENT WILL BE OVER BY THIS TIME. STRONG                 
SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING SHARPLY               
CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND ON                  
TUESDAY UNDER INCREASED INSOLATION...BUT STILL BE A TOUCH ON THE                
COOL SIDE WITH COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE AND A NORTH/NORTHWEST WIND. A            
FAST-MOVING UPPER WAVE SKIRTING ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER SENDS A            
COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A DRY AIRMASS WILL BE              
IN PLACE IN WAKE OF PREVIOUS SYSTEM...AND THUS FRONT LOOKS TO BE                
MOISTURE STARVED AS IT MOVES IN AND NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP TO                 
ACCOMPANY IT. THE FRONT MOVING IN DURING THE DAY WILL PRODUCE A                 
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST GRADIENT IN TEMPS. SOUTHEAST AREAS SHOULD                
CONTINUE TO REBOUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT/S ARRIVAL. OF COURSE TEMPS               
WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON FRONTAL TIMING...BUT WILL AIM HIGHS IN THE               
UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO LOWER/MID 70S SOUTHEAST.                                 
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS KANSAS...BEFORE                
EVENTUALLY LIFTING BACK NORTH THROUGH THE CWA AS A WARM FRONT                   
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE KEPT THINGS DRY THROUGH THURSDAY                      
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH HAVE SOME CONCERNS THAT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE               
CWA COULD GET CLIPPED BY SOME PRECIP ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT BUT              
POSSIBLY EVEN AS EARLY AS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH            
A BAND OF MID-LEVEL /H7-H5/ FRONTOGENESIS THAT SETS UP FROM ROUGHLY             
UT TO SOUTHERN MN ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER JET STREAK ORIENTED            
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. BETTER FOCUS AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO             
BE JUST NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS            
AND PERHAPS INCREASE POPS IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.                              
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY THEN RAMPS UP GREATLY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.             
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE CONCERNING HANDLING OF NEXT              
SYSTEM...LEADING TO LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE. GFS CONTINUES TO LOOK              
TOO PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM...WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS MUCH                  
SLOWER AS IT DIGS A DEEP CUTOFF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. HPC                     
PREFERENCE LEANED TOWARD A SOLUTION IN BETWEEN THE TWO SIMILAR TO               
THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE TIMING...AND GENERALLY FOLLOWED ALONG THOSE SAME             
LINES. HAVE SMALL PRECIP CHANCES BEGINNING FRIDAY AS WARM FRONT                 
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA AND H85 THETA-E                       
ADVECTION INCREASES. CONTINUED WITH SMALL PRECIP CHANCES SATURDAY               
INTO SUNDAY GIVEN CONTINUED THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF FRONTAL                  
PASSAGE...AND THEN THE FRONT EVENTUALLY COMING THROUGH. COULD EVEN HAVE         
SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE WORKING IN BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND FROM                   
REMNANTS OF NORBERT. TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE REMAINS HIGHLY UP                
IN THE AIR...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE POTENTIAL FOR A SHOT OF CHILLY                
AIR COMING IN BEHIND THE FRONT ONCE IT FINALLY COMES THROUGH. AT                
THIS POINT...UNFORTUNATELY CAN/T SAY MUCH MORE THAN IT COULD VERY               
WELL BE THE COLDEST AIR WE/VE SEEN SO FAR THIS SEASON AND                       
POTENTIALLY THE FIRST FREEZE FOR THE AREA ARRIVING ANYWHERE FROM                
SATURDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT. BUT ONCE AGAIN...STILL A LOT TO                 
BE DETERMINED AND CONFIDENCE AT THIS JUNCTURE IS TOWARD THE BOTTOM              
END OF THE SPECTRUM. KB                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. VFR CONDITIONS WILL STILL PREVAIL                     
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THIS TAF PERIOD...AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL                
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY APPROACH. ALTHOUGH A FEW                
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND                       
EVENING...THE MAIN CONCERN INITIALLY WILL BE STOUT SOUTH BREEZES                
GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KTS AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THERE IS               
STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE ONSET OF STEADIER                     
RAINFALL AT KGRI...BUT FOR NOW HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION AND MVFR                 
CEILING/VISIBILITY OUT OF THE PREVAILING FORECAST UNTIL AT LEAST 12Z.           
THIS MAY END UP BEING TOO AGGRESSIVE AND HAVE TO BE DELAYED EVEN                
FURTHER IN FUTURE FORECASTS...AS IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF                
RAIN AND MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY              
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT                                          
738 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND              
COAST TONIGHT RESULTING IN DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE                   
NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING. A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL                 
BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...FROM NORTH OF LAKE HURON TO                       
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE BY EARLY TUESDAY                  
MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS               
TONIGHT WITH MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR                 
EARLY MORNING LOWS ON TUESDAY...WITH AREAS OF FROST EXPECTED.                   
THE REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS                  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...                                      
AS OF 343 PM EDT MONDAY...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SHALLOW               
INSTABILITY RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD DAYTIME CUMULUS CLOUDS                       
TODAY...AND ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL VT. PER                
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS...THE CORE OF COLDEST 500MB TEMPERATURES /-28               
TO -30C/ IS ALREADY SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS NH AND SRN ME. THIS                
COMBINED WITH THE LOSS OF INSOLATIONAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN A                 
RAPID DECREASE IN CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS EVENING...WITH SKIES BECOME               
MOSTLY CLEAR AREAWIDE BY 1-2Z. WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED                  
BETWEEN LAKE HURON AND JAMES BAY THIS AFTERNOON...A NLY GRADIENT                
FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...UNTIL PBL FULLY DECOUPLES.               
IN THE FORECAST...HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION OF NW WINDS AROUND 10                 
MPH THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE WIDER VALLEYS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS               
WILL SEE THESE WINDS DIMINISH LATER IN THE EVENING...WHILE THE                  
SHELTERED VALLEYS WILL SEE WINDS BECOME NEARLY CALM SHORTLY AFTER               
SUNSET TONIGHT.                                                                 
WITH THE DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER...SFC DEWPOINTS ALREADY IN THE                 
LOWER 30S...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARD THE                               
REGION...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING               
FROM LATE THIS EVENING ONWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE                      
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT WIDESPREAD FROST                         
FORMATION...EXCEPT VERY NEAR THE LAKE CHAMPLAIN SHORELINE. MOST                 
SECTIONS WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT...WITH LOWS VERY NEAR                 
32F AT BTV TONIGHT. THE SARANAC LAKE AIRPORT WILL LIKELY SEE A LOW              
TEMP NEAR 20F TONIGHT...WITH READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S IN FAR              
NERN VT WHERE WINDS WILL STAY IN THE 5-10 MPH THROUGH MOST OF THE               
EVENING /OWING TO STRONGER LOW-LEVEL GRADIENT FLOW/.                            
HAVE MAINTAINED PREVIOUS FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES /PLEASE SEE LATEST              
STATEMENT...ALBNPWBTV/...EXCEPT DECIDED TO UPGRADE WINDSOR COUNTY VERMONT       
FROM A FROST ADVISORY TO A FREEZE WARNING...BASED ON EXPECTED LOW               
TEMPERATURES 29-32F ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTY. THE ONLY AREAS                   
EXCLUDED FROM THE ADVISORY/WARNING AREAS ARE ACROSS THE NORTHERN                
ADIRONDACKS AND CALEDONIA/ESSEX COUNTIES IN NERN VT WHERE A                     
WIDESPREAD FREEZE OCCURRED ON THE MORNING OF SEPTEMBER 19TH.                    
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                   
AS OF 350 PM EDT MONDAY...A DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE AXIS IN PLACE               
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BRING A TRANQUIL STRETCH OF WEATHER               
TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH NO PRECIPITATION                   
EXPECTED. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW               
TEMPERATURES IN A SIMILAR RANGE TO THOSE EXPECTED TONIGHT /MOST OF              
THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE MIN TEMPS AT OR BELOW 32F/. SKIES WILL               
BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR INCREASING              
CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WEAKENING                    
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE INCLUDED A              
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THIS FEATURE. AT THIS POINT...MOST                        
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY SHOULD BE AOB A TENTH                
OF AN INCH.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                         
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO AFFECT THE               
AREA FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WAA WILL STREAM INTO THE AREA                
AHEAD OF APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. LIMITED                       
MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE...AND BEST DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN WELL                 
TO OUR NORTH...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DURING                  
THURSDAY. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON                     
FRIDAY...AND ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORM OVER THE                     
CAROLINAS. FORMATION OF THIS LOW HAS ACTUALLY BEEN PRETTY                       
PERSISTENT IN THE GFS MODEL RUNS OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS. THERE IS               
A POSSIBILITY FOR THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW TO GET                  
CAUGHT UP IN THE FLOW AND STREAM ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR                       
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME HAVE JUST INCLUDED CHANCE                 
POPS BECAUSE OF A LACK OF MODEL TO MODEL CONSISTENCY. HOPEFULLY                 
SOON THE MODELS WILL COME TOGETHER A BIT MORE FOR DAYS 4 THROUGH                
8 BECAUSE THE LAST FEW DAYS HAVE BEEN LOW CONFIDENCE                            
FORECASTS...AS IS TODAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS                  
WELL TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY...BRINGING WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE               
REGION. HAVE AGAIN MENTIONED VERY LOW CHANCE POPS.                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS WITH              
SCATTERED IFR OR BELOW IN PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND            
LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOG TO            
DEVELOP AT THE USUAL SITES. KMPV WILL DROP TO VLIFR AFTER 03Z AND               
REMAIN SO THROUGH 14Z. OPTED TO LEAVE OUT MENTION OF FREEZING FOG AT            
KMPV AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE BORDERLINE. IF IT DOES DROP BELOW                  
FREEZING AT KMPV...IT SHOULD ONLY BE FOR A FEW HOURS. KRUT WILL SEE             
VISIBILITY AROUND 4SM AFTER 06Z...WITH OFF AND ON VLIFR 08Z-12Z.                
KSLK SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE 07Z-11Z. BOTH               
THE WRF AND GFS HINT AT POSSIBLE EAST WINDS LATE TONIGHT AT                     
KBTV...WHICH IS USUALLY FAVORABLE FOR ADVECTION FOG.                            
HOWEVER...AIRMASS WILL BE VERY DRY AND MET MOS KEEPS WINDS                      
NORTHWEST. THIS WOULD PRECLUDE ANY VISIBILITY OBSTRUCTIONS DUE TO               
FOG AT KBTV. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING                    
TONIGHT.                                                                        
00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY              
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAIN THE DOMINANT             
FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. IFR CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY                     
WEDNESDAY MORNING AT THE USUAL SITES DUE TO FOG. A WEAKENING COLD               
FRONT WILL SLIP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY BRINGING THE                  
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO ALL TAF SITES. GIVEN THE LACK OF               
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR/MVFR. HIGH             
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN BY FRIDAY MORNING...THEN MORE             
RAIN SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO THE SOUTH. MVFR WITH                 
PERHAPS SCATTERED IFR FOR THE WEEKEND SYSTEM.                                   
NOTICE TO USERS OF TERMINAL AERODROME FORECASTS (TAF)...BEGINNING               
AT 0000 UTC ON NOVEMBER 5...2008...THE FORMAT FOR TAFS WILL                     
CHANGE. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BEGIN TO ISSUE TAFS                   
USING A VALID DATE AND TIME GROUP IN THE FORECAST. ALL                          
METEOROLOGICAL AGENCIES WORLDWIDE WILL ALSO ISSUE THEIR TAF                     
FORECASTS IN THIS NEW FORMAT. THIS IS BEING DONE TO ACCOMMODATE                 
30 HOUR TAF FORECASTS THAT WILL BE DONE FOR SELECT MAJOR                        
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORTS WORLDWIDE. THERE WILL BE 32 MAJOR U.S.                   
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORTS FOR WHICH TAFS FORECASTS WILL BE VALID FOR               
30 HOURS. THIS FORMAT CHANGE IS BEING MANDATED BY THE                           
INTERNATIONAL CIVIL AVIATION ORGANIZATION (ICAO). THE 6 TAF                     
FORECASTS BEING DONE BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN                         
BURLINGTON WILL CONTINUE TO BE VALID FOR 24 HOURS. TO SEE                       
EXAMPLES OF THIS NEW FORMAT...PLEASE GO TO THE INTERNET WEB SITE                
LISTED BELOW.                                                                   
WWW.AVIATIONWEATHER.GOV/NOTICE/TAF30.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)                       
&&                                                                              
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR VTZ003-006-               
     008-010-012-016>019.                                                       
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR VTZ001-002-               
     005-009-011.                                                               
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ026-027-               
     087.                                                                       
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ028-035.               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS                                                              
NEAR TERM...BANACOS                                                             
SHORT TERM...BANACOS                                                            
LONG TERM...NEILES                                                              
AVIATION...MB                                                                   
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT                                          
312 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS                      
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH                   
WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVER THE AREA INTO THURSDAY. A                
COUPLE OF WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL THEN AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY                  
NIGHT RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.                                               
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
AS OF 933 AM EDT MONDAY...A MID-LVL VORTICITY AXIS SHIFTING                     
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA PER IR                  
IMAGERY AND LATEST RUC ANALYSIS. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO BE                   
ASSOCIATED WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS...WHICH WILL LIKELY                  
LINGER THRU THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. ONCE THE VORT AXIS                   
SHIFTS FURTHER SE...MID-LEVEL AVA WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUBSIDENCE                 
AND DIMINISHING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY                         
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.                                                         
AT THE SFC...1035MB ANTICYCLONE CENTERED SOUTH OF JAMES BAY WILL                
BUILD SLOWLY SEWD...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS REACHING SERN                           
ONTARIO/CENTRAL NY BY 12Z TUESDAY. A NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW                   
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS AIR MASS MIXES OUT LATE                
THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HRS. LOOKING AT 10M WINDS                
AROUND 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-18 KTS ACROSS THE REGION.                
WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING AND ESTABLISH GOOD                        
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. MOST                   
SECTIONS WILL GO AOB 32F FOR LOWS...EXCEPT NEAR THE LAKE                        
CHAMPLAIN SHORELINE/CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS. WE WILL MAINTAIN FROST AND               
FREEZE HEADLINES AS THEY CURRENTLY EXIST...AS CURRENT FORECAST                  
LOOKS ON TRACK.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                                
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...A COUPLE NICE DAYS ON TAP FOR TUES AND                
WED...AS SFC HIGH DRIFTS SLOWLY OFF THE EAST COAST. EXPECTING AN                
INCR IN HIGHS FROM TUES INTO WED AS WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE WSW                
BY WED. HAVE GONE A COUPLE DEGREES ABV GUIDNACE FOR WEDNESDAY W/                
850 TEMPS NEARING +8C TO +10C.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                         
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO AFFECT THE               
AREA FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WAA WILL STREAM INTO THE AREA                
AHEAD OF APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. LIMITED                       
MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE...AND BEST DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN WELL                 
TO OUR NORTH...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DURING                  
THURSDAY. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON                     
FRIDAY...AND ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORM OVER THE                     
CAROLINAS. FORMATION OF THIS LOW HAS ACTUALLY BEEN PRETTY                       
PERSISTENT IN THE GFS MODEL RUNS OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS. THERE IS               
A POSSIBILITY FOR THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW TO GET                  
CAUGHT UP IN THE FLOW AND STREAM ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR                       
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME HAVE JUST INCLUDED CHANCE                 
POPS BECAUSE OF A LACK OF MODEL TO MODEL CONSISTENCY. HOPEFULLY                 
SOON THE MODELS WILL COME TOGETHER A BIT MORE FOR DAYS 4 THROUGH                
8 BECAUSE THE LAST FEW DAYS HAVE BEEN LOW CONFIDENCE                            
FORECASTS...AS IS TODAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS                  
WELL TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY...BRINGING WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE               
REGION. HAVE AGAIN MENTIONED VERY LOW CHANCE POPS.                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                      
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...BKN TO SCT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE CWA THIS                
AFTERNOON WILL BECOME CLEAR BY ABOUT 00Z...THEN REMAIN CLEAR                    
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION                
THIS EVENING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA                
AND RIDGES INTO THE REGION. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY OUT OF THE NNW 10               
TO 15 KTS AND GUSTING...BUT WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER                
00Z. HAVE INCLUDED BR/FG AT MPV AND RUT WITH A PRETTY DECENT                    
RADIATIONAL FOG NIGHT COMING UP. ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM WILL LIFT               
BY 12Z AND HAVE INDICATED THIS IN THE TAFS. TOMORROW THERE WILL                 
BE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO                    
BUILD.                                                                          
18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE                     
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS...EXCEPT LOCAL IFR/LIFR                
IN RADIATION FOG 06Z-14Z WEDNESDAY IN SHELTERED VLYS...INCLUDING                
TAF SITES MPV/SLK. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF                 
SHOWERS LATE WED NITE/THURS...BUT CIGS/VSBYS MAINLY VFR. DRY WX                 
AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY.                                             
NOTICE TO USERS OF TERMINAL AERODROME FORECASTS (TAF)...BEGINNING               
AT 0000 UTC ON NOVEMBER 5...2008...THE FORMAT FOR TAFS WILL                     
CHANGE. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BEGIN TO ISSUE TAFS                   
USING A VALID DATE AND TIME GROUP IN THE FORECAST. ALL                          
METEOROLOGICAL AGENCIES WORLDWIDE WILL ALSO ISSUE THEIR TAF                     
FORECASTS IN THIS NEW FORMAT. THIS IS BEING DONE TO ACCOMMODATE                 
30 HOUR TAF FORECASTS THAT WILL BE DONE FOR SELECT MAJOR                        
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORTS WORLDWIDE. THERE WILL BE 32 MAJOR U.S.                   
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORTS FOR WHICH TAFS FORECASTS WILL BE VALID FOR               
30 HOURS. THIS FORMAT CHANGE IS BEING MANDATED BY THE                           
INTERNATIONAL CIVIL AVIATION ORGANIZATION (ICAO). THE 6 TAF                     
FORECASTS BEING DONE BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN                         
BURLINGTON WILL CONTINUE TO BE VALID FOR 24 HOURS. TO SEE                       
EXAMPLES OF THIS NEW FORMAT...PLEASE GO TO THE INTERNET WEB SITE                
LISTED BELOW.                                                                   
WWW.AVIATIONWEATHER.GOV/NOTICE/TAF30.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)                       
&&                                                                              
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR VTZ003-006-               
     008-010-012-016>019.                                                       
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR VTZ001-002-               
     005-009-011.                                                               
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ026-027-               
     087.                                                                       
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ028-035.               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...JN                                                                   
NEAR TERM...BANACOS                                                             
SHORT TERM...JN                                                                 
LONG TERM...NEILES                                                              
AVIATION...NEILES                                                               
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
1033 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH                  
TONIGHT... PUSHING A DRY COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA.                 
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY                   
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND               
BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                         
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                                 
AS OF 1030 PM MONDAY...                                                         
...DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S               
OVERNIGHT...                                                                    
A BACKDOOR FRONT WAS DIFFUSING OVER CENTRAL NC AT 10 PM THIS                    
EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE                 
FRONT... NOCTURNAL COOLING... AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE (SAMPLED IN THE             
1500-5000 THSD FT LAYER AT WALLOPS THIS EVENING)... MAY LEAD TO                 
ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL SATURATION TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF                     
SCATTERED TO PERHAPS BROKEN STRATUS OR STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS THE AREA            
OVERNIGHT. IN FACT... LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS                  
INDICATE THESE CLOUDS MAY BE ON THE UPSWING OVER SOUTHEASTERN VA.               
MEANWHILE... AN INITIALLY SEPARATE AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS HAS                    
DEVELOPED ALONG THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.             
EXPECT THAT SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER MAY SPILL EASTWARD INTO THE                
PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT... IN RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL WINDS VEERING TO A            
MORE EASTERLY/UPSLOPE COMPONENT LATE.                                           
THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON OVERNIGHT            
LOW TEMPERATURES... BUT FEEL THAT LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S FROM NORTH TO             
SOUTH IS STILL ATTAINABLE GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR JUST UPSTREAM            
OVER VA (CHARACTERIZED BY OBSERVED 1000-850MB THICKNESSES OF 1359               
METERS AT BOTH WALLOPS AND STERLING)... WHICH IS POISED TO SPREAD               
INTO CENTRAL NC LATER TONIGHT. SUSPECT THAT A STEADY LIGHT                      
NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE AND THE ANTICIPATED CLOUD DEVELOPMENT SHOULD               
LARGELY MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATION FOG OVERNIGHT... THOUGH            
SOME SHALLOW PATCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE CLOUDS ARE SLOWEST TO               
DEVELOP AND LESS EXPANSIVE... GIVEN THE RESIDUALLY HIGH SURFACE                 
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.  -MWS                                  
TUESDAY: THE MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD BE LAST TO BREAK OVER THE NW CWA             
GIVEN THE UPSLOPE-DIRECTED LOW LEVEL FLOW... AND HAVE HELD ONTO                 
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THERE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL                    
THICKNESSES PLUMMET INTO THE 1360-1365 M RANGE BY TOMORROW... WHICH             
YIELDS HIGHS OF 69-76. -GIH                                                     
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...                           
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...                                                          
DIFFICULT FORECAST THIS PERIOD WITH NWP GUIDANCE PROVIDING SEVERAL              
POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS. GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON TUES NIGHT AS            
SHORT WAVE RIDING BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS AS TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS            
THE MS VALLEY. SHOULD SEE HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE ON TUES NIGHT WITH               
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE N COASTAL PLAIN AND THE LOWER 50S              
IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT.                                                        
ON WEDNESDAY GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE WITH GFS DEPICTING A                    
STRONGER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST THAT CLOSES OFF EARLY WED               
WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND WEAKER...WAITING UNTIL WED EVE BEFORE             
CLOSING OFF. 12Z CANADIAN AND NAM-WRF AREA ALSO SLOWER AND A BIT                
WEAKER WITH THE UPPER LOW. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT BEST                
FORCING AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NC LATE WED                 
NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THURS. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD AND FOCUSED               
THEM A LITTLE FURTHER S WITH LIKELY POPS NOW INCLUDED FOR MUCH OF               
THE CWA.                                                                        
SEVERAL DETAILS ARE WORTH NOTING. THE 12Z GFS IS NOTABLY STRONGER               
IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ESP AT 850 WHERE A SE FLOW REACHES 35 KNOTS ON            
THURS MORNING. THIS ENHANCED FLOW IS COINCIDENT WITH A BULLSEYE OF              
PRECIPITATION THAT MOVES OUT OF THE GULF. MODEL GENERATED CONVECTIVE            
PRECIPITATION IS ONLY RESPONSIBLE FOR AROUND A QUARTER OF THIS                  
PRECIPITATION AREA. HAVE DOWNPLAYED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DURING                
THIS PERIOD AS THIS FEATURE APPEARS ANOMALOUS. NAM SHOWS A SIMILAR              
FEATURE ALTHOUGH IT IS OF A WEAKER MAGNITUDE. EXPECT TO SEE SOME WEAK           
IN SITU DAMMING AS PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO A STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS             
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT. WILL LOWER TEMPS IN CAD FAVORED              
AREAS ON THURS AND HOLD ONTO CAD FEATURE THROUGH SAT AM. SOME                   
CONCERN EXISTS OVER THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION                 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON WED INTO THURSDAY. WITH A VARIETY             
OF SCENARIOS POSSIBLE IT IS DIFFICULT TO CONCLUDE DEFINITIVELY BUT              
AT LEAST A MODEST ATLANTIC ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED. STUDIES HAVE               
SHOWN THE ONSHORE FLOW CAN MITIGATE THE IMPACT OF UPSTREAM                      
CONVECTION. WE`VE TRIMMED BACK RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND POPS SLIGHTLY IN            
THE TRIAD. -BLAES                                                               
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                           
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...                                                          
NOT A GREAT DEAL OF CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS WELL.                
SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD                
WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW THAT LIFTS                
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THE GFS AND 00Z CANADIAN ARE PROGRESSIVE                  
WITH THE UPPER LOW AND MOVE IT NORTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC                  
AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE ECMWF AND THE 12Z CANADIAN MOVE THE UPPER               
LOW SLOWLY SE AND OFF THE GA/SC COAST ON FRI. WHILE THE 00Z UK                  
MOVES THE UPPER LOW PROGRESSIVELY AND OFF THE GA COAST BY THU                   
NIGHT.                                                                          
HPC IS LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF WHICH WOULD BRING THE BEST CHANCE               
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON WED NIGHT AND THURS.                      
MOISTURE...CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LINGERS INTO FRIDAY           
NIGHT. TEMPS ON FRIDAY SHOULD STILL BE MODULATED BY A LINGERING                 
IN SITU DAMMING EVENT. IF ECMWF VERIFIES THEN A LONGER THEN                     
ADVERTISED PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY              
AND SUNDAY. WITH VARIOUS SCENARIOS IN PLAY WILL OPT TO PLAY UP                  
CLOUDS ON SAT BUT KEEP MENTION OF PRECIPITATION OUT THE FORECAST.               
HEIGHTS SHOULD BUILD EVENTUALLY AFTER THE SYSTEM DEPARTS WITH SOME              
CLEARING AND MODERATING TEMPS. -BLAES                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
AS OF 915 PM...                                                                 
THE FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE TAF PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW                
LEVEL STRATUS TOWARD DAWN IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. AT THE                     
CURRENT TIME SOME STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED IN UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE                  
NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS. TINY AMOUNTS OF STRATUS IN THE COASTAL                
PLAIN AS WELL WITH A FEW CLOUDS IN THE FAYETTEVILLE VICINITY.                   
GIVEN THE PAST SUCCESS OF THE RUC MODEL IN THESE SITUATIONS A                   
RELATIVELY CEILING FREE NIGHT IS FORECAST. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS                
LOW DUE TO OTHER COMPUTER MODELS INDICATING POSSIBLE STRATUS                    
DEVELOPMENT. CEILINGS BASED FROM 1500 TO 2500 FEET COULD                        
OCCUR...MOST LIKELY AT RDU AND RWI... BUT STRATUS BUILDING EAST                 
FROM THE FOOTHILLS INTO GSO AND INT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.                 
WILL MONITOR OBSERVATIONS AND MODELS AND ADJUST AS NEEDED.                      
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY WITH VFR CEILINGS NEAR 4000 FEET AT               
TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON.                                                     
SOME FOG LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT LOW                
STRATUS CEILINGS OTHER THAN LOCALIZED IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.             
IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT TIMES ACROSS CENTRAL                   
NORTH CAROLINA STARTING AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT... AND                   
CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS                  
SATURDAY.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...BLAES                                                                
NEAR TERM...MWS/HARTFIELD                                                       
SHORT TERM...BLAES                                                              
LONG TERM...BLAES                                                               
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
1010 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE               
NORTH TODAY... PUSHING A DRY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA               
TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE                    
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY.                                           
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
AS OF 1005 AM MONDAY...                                                         
THE EARLY MORNING FOG HAS MIXED OUT NEARLY EVERYWHERE. THE 12Z                  
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE INCOMING FRONTAL ZONE... PROVIDING THE               
LEADING EDGE OF THE LOWER DEW POINTS... NOW STRETCHING ACROSS                   
CENTRAL VA... ALTHOUGH THE ZONE ITSELF IS RATHER DIFFUSE. LATEST                
MODEL OUTPUT FROM THE 12KM NAM AND 13KM RUC INDICATE THE FRONT IS               
UNLIKELY TO MAKE MUCH SOUTHWARD PROGRESS INTO THE CWA PRIOR TO                  
EVENING... SO EXPECT STEADY HEATING TODAY UNENCUMBERED BY CLOUDS                
(GIVEN THE DEEP ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE OVER NC) OR COLD AIR ADVECTION.            
MORNING THICKNESSES OFF THE 12Z GSO SOUNDING WERE MINIMALLY WARMER              
THAN YESTERDAY`S... SO HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR OR A DEGREE OR             
SO WARMER... AROUND 80-84. -GIH                                                 
EARLIER DISCUSSION... AS OF 315 AM...                                           
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST            
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES...WITH A SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH                
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS. A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED             
IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN VA...EXTENDING NORTHWEST THROUGH THE OH VALLEY.             
ALOFT...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WAS DIGGING INTO THE MIDWEST...WITH                 
RIDGING ALOFT JUST EAST OF THE MS RIVER...AND ANOTHER DEEP UPPER                
TROUGH WAS DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND.                                 
TODAY AND TONIGHT:                                                              
THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY IN EASTERN CANADA IS PROGGED TO DROP            
SOUTHEAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC THIS                      
AFTERNOON...WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN BEHIND IN ITS WAKE ACROSS            
THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. THIS PROVIDES AN IDEAL SETUP FOR MASS            
CONVERGENCE ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND...             
ALLOWING SFC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TO                
BUILD SOUTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN OVER PA/NY BY 00Z THIS EVENING...WITH            
THE SFC RIDGE AXIS STRENGTHENING AND EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE                
CAROLINAS. THIS STRONG SFC RIDGING WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT              
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. EXPECT SUNNY OR               
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE               
AND LOW RH VALUES THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. ALTHOUGH THE BACKDOOR COLD             
FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY (NO PRECIP) GIVEN                 
LIMITED MOISTURE AND ONLY WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...BOTH THE                 
GFS/NAM 1000-850 MB LAYER RH`S INCREASE TO 85-95% IN THE FAR WESTERN            
PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS LATE TONIGHT (AFTER 06Z)...INDICATING THE                
POSSIBILITY OF LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING IN THOSE AREAS. THE NAM IS                
ACTUALLY HINTING AT LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING IN SE VA AND NE NC JUST              
AHEAD OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT AFTER SUNSET...PROPAGATING WEST/WSW                 
THROUGH CENTRAL NC TOWARD THE WESTERN PIEDMONT DURING THE OVERNIGHT             
HOURS. ALTHOUGH I AM UNSURE OF EXACTLY HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER THERE               
WILL BE... FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO SHOW CLOUD COVER INCREASING TO              
AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT...WITH POTENTIALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY               
SKIES IN THE TRIAD BY MORNING.                                                  
W/REGARD TO HIGH TEMPS...A BLEND OF GFS/NAM THICKNESSES YIELD 1380M             
INCREASING TO ROUGHLY 1390M THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT                
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S BASED ON LOCAL TEMP RESEARCH. HOWEVER...            
THE MAV/MET MOS GUIDANCE IS IN UNUSUALLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING HIGH            
TEMPS MAKING IT INTO THE LOWER 80S. AS SUCH...HAVE DECIDED TO TREND             
TOWARD MOS GUIDANCE...SHOWING HIGHS RANGING FROM 81-83F ACROSS THE              
AREA. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY SINCE WE WILL LIKELY            
HAVE SOME LOW CLOUD COVER ASSOC/W THE BACKDOOR FRONT...IN ADDITION              
TO COLD ADVECTION IN AT LEAST NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA BEHIND             
THE FRONT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOOKING AT MOS GUIDANCE AND               
UPSTREAM TEMPS/DEWPOINTS...LOW TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S (NE)            
TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE LOOKS REASONABLE. -VINCENT                                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/                                    
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...                                                          
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT:                                                      
ALTHOUGH RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE EAST COAST DURING THE DAY                
TUESDAY AS A DEEP TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE MIDWEST...THE POST                 
FRONTAL AIRMASS SURGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP HIGH             
TEMPS MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH THICKNESSES AND            
MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTING HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 70F NORTH TO 75F              
SOUTH. WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT INCREASING OVER THE AREA AS THE UPPER              
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CAROLINAS...AND SFC RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE            
AREA FROM THE NORTH...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY OR SUNNY SKIES TUESDAY...             
EXCEPT PERHAPS DURING THE MORNING HOURS WHEN STRATUS OR STRATO-CU               
MAY STILL BE HANGING AROUND IN WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE             
AREA. THROUGHOUT TUESDAY NIGHT THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN THE MIDWEST             
CONTINUES PROGRESSING EAST...REACHING WESTERN TN/KY BY 12Z WED                  
MORNING...WITH THE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE EAST COAST WEAKENING AND              
BEING FORCED EAST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC. BY 12Z WED MORNING...AN UPPER            
LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHEAST MO OR             
NORTHEAST AR. WE SHOULD SEE MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER BEGINNING TO            
INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY SUNRISE WED MORNING            
AS CLOUD COVER PROPAGATES DOWNSTREAM OF CONVECTION IN THE DEEP                  
SOUTH. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE CLOUD FREE ACROSS THE              
ENTIRE AREA...AND WITH A COOL/DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...EXPECT SOMEWHAT            
CHILLY LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S OVER MOST OF THE AREA...WITH LOWER             
50S POSSIBLE IN THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT IF CLOUD COVER ADVANCES                
INTO THAT AREA QUICK ENOUGH.                                                    
WEDNESDAY:                                                                      
EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WED FROM THE WEST             
AND SOUTH AS THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST BECOMES CUT-OFF FROM THE                 
NORTHERN STREAM JET AND GETS PICKED UP BY THE SOUTHERN STREAM...                
HEADING EAST ACROSS THE TN VALLEY OR DEEP SOUTH TOWARD THE                      
CAROLINAS. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/NAM DIFFER SOMEWHAT IN THE                      
TIMING/POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LOW...ALTHOUGH THEY ALL               
SHOW THE SAME GENERAL THING...A FAIRLY RESPECTABLE UPPER LEVEL                  
SYSTEM ADVANCING TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. ALTHOUGH PRECIP MAY BEGIN                
ENTERING FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE AND UPSTATE SC BY SUNSET             
WED EVENING...DO NOT EXPECT A CHANCE FOR PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL NC               
UNTIL AT LEAST WED NIGHT GIVEN THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...AND WILL             
THEREFORE KEEP THE FCST DRY AT THIS TIME. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL                  
DEPEND PRIMARILY ON HOW THICK THE ADVANCING MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD               
COVER IS...BUT HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S LOOK ATTAINABLE LOOKING AT            
THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCE AND THICKNESSES.                                        
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT:                                         
ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MAJOR                       
OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ON THE EXACT DETAILS OF THE UPPER               
LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE CAROLINAS...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH             
OF A CONSENSUS (THE NAM IS A NOTABLE OUTLIER THOUGH) TO START                   
BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO WEST/SW PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC AFTER             
SUNSET WED EVENING...WITH POPS INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO                     
NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL SHOW POPS INCREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE            
(20%) EVERYWHERE BY SUNRISE THU MORNING...WITH LOW CHANCE (30%) POPS            
IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. WILL INCREASE POPS TO HIGH CHANCE              
(50%) DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS               
THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW ADVANCING EVER CLOSER TO THE                      
CAROLINAS...WITH PRECIP SPREADING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA FROM WEST TO             
EAST OR SW TO NE. THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z             
GFS IN SHOWING THIS OCCURRING. IF TODAY`S 12Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE               
THE TREND SHOWN IN THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF...WE WILL NEED TO UP POPS TO               
LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH                   
SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. SO BASICALLY...WE COULD SEE WIDESPREAD RAIN             
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO                
FRIDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO GET SPECIFIC WITH                   
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST A WIDESPREAD 1-2"               
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. LOW TEMPS ON THU/FRI MORNINGS WILL                  
HIGHLY DEPEND ON THE EXACT POSITION/STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE                     
LOW/FRONTS ASSOC/W THE UPPER LOW...IN ADDITION TO WHERE PRECIP IS               
OCCURRING...AND AS SUCH ARE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT THIS TIME.                
BASED ON MOS GUIDANCE AND EXPECTED PROGRESSION OF PRECIP...LOWS IN              
THE MID 50S LOOK REASONABLE THU MORNING...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE            
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FRI MORNING. HIGH TEMPS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM             
THE MID 60S IN THE NW PIEDMONT TO LOWER/MID 70S IN THE SE COASTAL               
PLAIN. -VINCENT                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                           
AS OF 250 AM MONDAY...                                                          
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.                                        
PREFER THE PROGRESSIVE TIMING OF THE GFS AND CANADIAN...AS OPPOSE TO            
THE SLOWER EC...WITH THE NORTHERN EJECTION OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM               
UPPER CYCLONE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS CALLS FOR DIMINISHING            
POPS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.                                                   
HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM AND THROUGH THE                   
WEEKEND...AS NW PACIFIC S/W ENERGY AMPLIFIES OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN             
REGION. ADDITIONALLY...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW FROM OFFSHORE SURFACE              
ANTICYCLONE WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL......MUCH               
LIKE THE PAST TWO DAYS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO                 
LOWER 80S. -CBL                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
AS OF 730 AM MONDAY...                                                          
LOOK FOR MVFR AND IFR FOG TO QUICKLY BURN THIS MORNING. SOME FAIR               
WEATHER CU WITH BASES AT OR ABOVE 5000 FEET.                                    
A DRY BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH            
CAROLINA TONIGHT. SOME IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MONDAY NIGHT               
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST...WHERE MODEL            
RH CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BANKING UP ON THE LEE             
SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...DUE TO THE ENELY FLOW. THE RISK OF RAIN WITH            
MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES INCREASES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT            
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A POTENT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.             
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD                                                            
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/VINCENT                                                   
SHORT TERM...VINCENT                                                            
LONG TERM...CBL                                                                 
AVIATION...CBL                                                                  
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
953 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
0230Z RADAR IMAGE SHOWING BROAD AREA OF PRECIP MAINLY ALONG AND                 
WEST OF INTERSTATE 29 UP TO FARGO...THEN SOUTHEAST OF A FARGO TO                
LAKE OF THE WOODS COUNTY LINE. PRECIP MATCHING UP WELL WITH 00Z                 
NAMS NEARLY SATURATED 305K CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS...WITH                
HEAVIER RAIN LINING UP NICELY WITH 00Z NAM H700-H850 FRONTOGENESIS              
BAND. USING A BLEND OF NAM AND RUC FOR EVENING UPDATES.                         
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS FOR CURRENT ORIENTATION OF PRECIP BAND...AND                 
REDUCING POPS IN LINE WITH AFOREMENTIONED PARAMETERS. SECOND ISSUE              
BEYOND POPS WILL BE SKY COVER BEHIND SFC TROUGH. WV IMAGERY                     
SHOWING RAPID DRYING OVER WESTERN ND...HOWEVER FORWARD PROGRESSION              
OF CLEARING LINE IS SLOWING DOWN. THUS WILL KEEP THINGS MOSTLY                  
CLOUDY THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z TO 09Z. KEEPING THE MENTION OF PATCHY               
FOG IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW AS CHANCES OF ANY DECENT RADIATIONAL                   
COOLING TONIGHT ARE MINIMAL...ESPECIALLY ON THE MN SIDE. THUS WILL              
NOT INTRODUCE DENSE FOG ATTM.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LOOK FOR VFR CONDS FOR CURRENT AND NEXT SET OF TAFS AT ALL SITES                
EXCEPT BEMIDJI...WHERE THINGS SHOULD FLUCTUATE BETWEEN MARGINAL                 
AND VFR THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT DUE TO CONTINUATION OF RAIN. COULD                 
SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AT BJI BY EARLY MORNING AS WELL...BUT                  
WILL NOT DROP VIS TO LOW AS BJI SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY AND EXPECTING              
MORE OF A LOWERING STRATUS DECK.                                                
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SPEICHER                                                                        
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
1038 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
850 MOIST AND TEMP ADV CONTINUES TO FORCE INCREASING AREAS OF RAIN              
AND SHOWERS TO SPREAD NORTH. SOME DRYING IN THE LOWER LEVELS MAY                
INHIBIT RAINFALL IN SOUTHERN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE UPPED                  
POPS AND QPF IN DVL AREA BASED ON 305K ISENTROPIC SURFACE UP-GLIDE              
AND 88D ECHO INCREASES. LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION ON MINNESOTA              
SIDE OF RIVER RUNNING INTO RELATIVELY DRY EASTERLY FLOW...BUT                   
EXPECT THIS TO SHIFT SLOWLY EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. REMOVED                 
THUNDER THREAT AS ATMOSPHERE APPEARS STABLE. OVERALL PREVIOUS                   
FORECAST HAS GOOD HANDLE AND CHANGES MINIMAL.                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
THICKENING AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST                    
THIS AFTERNOON. LOWERING LIKELY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS MOISTURE                 
BECOME MORE ABUNDANT IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH MVFR CIGS PSBL                    
MONDAY...ESP IN THE FARGO AREA.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2008/                          
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
FCST CHALLENGE IS PCPN TIMING AND AMOUNTS. OVERALL PREV FCST                    
LOOKING GOOD AND 00Z MODEL DATA SUPPORTS PREV TIMING WELL. 06Z RUC              
SHOWING STRONG 850 MB WARM ADV ON NOSE OF 50 KT 850 MB JET OVER SE              
SD/NW IA AND FINALLY SEEING INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN                
THIS AREA. MODELS PROGGED THIS WELL AND HAVE THIS AREA CENTERED                 
OVER SRN MN/NRN IA MUCH OF THE DAY. CLOSER TO HOME...NRN EDGE OF                
700 MB WARM ADVECTION PRODUCING SHOWERS AND EVEN ISOLD                          
THUNDERSTORM AT TIMES OVER SE ND INTO WCNTRL MN. QUESTION IS HOW                
FAR WILL SHOWERS GET INTO THE DRY AIRMASS THAT IS OVER NE ND/NW                 
MN. 06Z RUC DOES SHOW THE INITIAL WARM ADV SURGE RUNNING OUT OF GAS             
AS IT APPROACHES GFK-BJI AREA BY 12Z...AS ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH                
TAKES OVER. THIS WOULD SEEM REASONABLE....SO KEPT TIGHT POP GRADIENT            
FROM PREV FCST THRU 18Z SUN IN KEEPING PCPN OUT OF GFK-BJI AREAS                
UNTIL THIS AFTN.                                                                
THIS AFTN WILL SEE SECOND SURGE OF 850 MB WARM/MOIST ADVECTION                  
NORTHWARD INTO SE ND...AND THIS WILL OVERSPREAD ALL BUT FAR NRN MN              
TONIGHT. PWATS INCREASE TO 1.50 INCHES TONIGHT SO LOOKS LIKE                    
GENEROUS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST                  
AREAS. NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO B.C. WILL MOVE EAST AND                
SWING INTO ND MONDAY HELPING TO KICK SFC TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE                    
EASTWARD INTO THE VALLEY IN THE AFTN/EVE AND INTO MN MON NIGHT/TUES             
MORNING. GOOD MOISTURE FEED AHD OF SFC TROUGH SHOULD AID IN                     
CONTINUED WIDESRPEAD SHOWER ACTIVITY MONDAY OVER ERN ND AND INTO                
NW/WCNTRL MN MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. OVERALL STORM TOTALS               
PCPN WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 1.50 INCHES SE ND INTO WCNTRL MN WITH CLOSE              
TO AN INCH AVERAGE OVER NE ND/FAR NW MN. LOCALIZED HEAVIER AMTS                 
LIKELY TO NR 2 INCHES. PROLONGED NATURE OF RAIN SHOULD NOT RESULT IN            
ANY FLOODING ISSUES.                                                            
ADDED LOW POP FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY PER COORD WITH WFO BIS DUE               
TO SHORT WAVE MOVING ALONG CANADIAN BORDER.                                     
LONG TERM...                                                                    
DID DECIDE TO UP POPS FRI AND FRI NIGHT FROM 20S TO 30S IN MOST                 
AREAS AS MODELS PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PCPN WILL OCCUR. NOW                 
00Z EMCWF HOWEVER IS A BIT SLOWER AND HAS MORE PCPN LATER ON IN                 
THE WEEKEND. MODELS OVERALL NOT HANDLING STORM SYSTEM FOR LATE IN               
THE WEEK/WEEKEND WELL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS BUT ALL AGREE                      
STORMINESS WILL BE THERE.                                                       
AVIATION...                                                                     
THICKENING AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST                    
TODAY...BUT INITIALLY CLOUD BASES WILL BE ABV 7000 FT. SOME                     
LOWERING LIKELY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS MOISTURE BECOME MORE                     
ABUNDANT IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH MVFR CIGS PSBL MONDAY...ESP IN                
THE FARGO AREA.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
EWENS                                                                           
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
322 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
FCST CHALLENGE IS PCPN TIMING AND AMOUNTS. OVERALL PREV FCST                    
LOOKING GOOD AND 00Z MODEL DATA SUPPORTS PREV TIMING WELL. 06Z RUC              
SHOWING STRONG 850 MB WARM ADV ON NOSE OF 50 KT 850 MB JET OVER SE              
SD/NW IA AND FINALLY SEEING INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN                
THIS AREA. MODELS PROGGED THIS WELL AND HAVE THIS AREA CENTERED                 
OVER SRN MN/NRN IA MUCH OF THE DAY. CLOSER TO HOME...NRN EDGE OF                
700 MB WARM ADVECTION PRODUCING SHOWERS AND EVEN ISOLD                          
THUNDERSTORM AT TIMES OVER SE ND INTO WCNTRL MN. QUESTION IS HOW                
FAR WILL SHOWERS GET INTO THE DRY AIRMASS THAT IS OVER NE ND/NW                 
MN. 06Z RUC DOES SHOW THE INITIAL WARM ADV SURGE RUNNING OUT OF GAS             
AS IT APPROACHES GFK-BJI AREA BY 12Z...AS ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH                
TAKES OVER. THIS WOULD SEEM REASONABLE....SO KEPT TIGHT POP GRADIENT            
FROM PREV FCST THRU 18Z SUN IN KEEPING PCPN OUT OF GFK-BJI AREAS                
UNTIL THIS AFTN.                                                                
THIS AFTN WILL SEE SECOND SURGE OF 850 MB WARM/MOIST ADVECTION                  
NORTHWARD INTO SE ND...AND THIS WILL OVERSPREAD ALL BUT FAR NRN MN              
TONIGHT. PWATS INCREASE TO 1.50 INCHES TONIGHT SO LOOKS LIKE                    
GENEROUS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST                  
AREAS. NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO B.C. WILL MOVE EAST AND                
SWING INTO ND MONDAY HELPING TO KICK SFC TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE                    
EASTWARD INTO THE VALLEY IN THE AFTN/EVE AND INTO MN MON NIGHT/TUES             
MORNING. GOOD MOISTURE FEED AHD OF SFC TROUGH SHOULD AID IN                     
CONTINUED WIDESRPEAD SHOWER ACTIVITY MONDAY OVER ERN ND AND INTO                
NW/WCNTRL MN MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. OVERALL STORM TOTALS               
PCPN WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 1.50 INCHES SE ND INTO WCNTRL MN WITH CLOSE              
TO AN INCH AVERAGE OVER NE ND/FAR NW MN. LOCALIZED HEAVIER AMTS                 
LIKELY TO NR 2 INCHES. PROLONGED NATURE OF RAIN SHOULD NOT RESULT IN            
ANY FLOODING ISSUES.                                                            
ADDED LOW POP FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY PER COORD WITH WFO BIS DUE               
TO SHORT WAVE MOVING ALONG CANADIAN BORDER.                                     
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
DID DECIDE TO UP POPS FRI AND FRI NIGHT FROM 20S TO 30S IN MOST                 
AREAS AS MODELS PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PCPN WILL OCCUR. NOW                 
00Z EMCWF HOWEVER IS A BIT SLOWER AND HAS MORE PCPN LATER ON IN                 
THE WEEKEND. MODELS OVERALL NOT HANDLING STORM SYSTEM FOR LATE IN               
THE WEEK/WEEKEND WELL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS BUT ALL AGREE                      
STORMINESS WILL BE THERE.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
THICKENING AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST                    
TODAY...BUT INITIALLY CLOUD BASES WILL BE ABV 7000 FT. SOME                     
LOWERING LIKELY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS MOISTURE BECOME MORE                     
ABUNDANT IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH MVFR CIGS PSBL MONDAY...ESP IN                
THE FARGO AREA.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RIDDLE                                                                          
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH                                           
141 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES                
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. ALSO...A WEAK FRONTAL                 
BOUNDARY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH THE                 
END OF THE WEEKEND. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN MOVING NORTH SUNDAY                
NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE BOUNDARY              
WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH MONDAY AS ANOTHER STRONG HIGH                  
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA.                                          
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...                                         
ADDED THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST                              
AREA TO THE FROST ADVISORY BECAUSE OF DECREASING DEW POINTS AND                 
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. DOWN IN THAT AREA THE FROST MAY BE                 
JUST AREAS BECAUSE THE DEW POINTS COULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER.              
DEW POINTS ARE DROPPING...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. WENT WITH                 
WIDESPREAD FROST AS NOT MUCH CLOUDS AND WITH SOME DRIER AIR                     
TRYING TO MOVE IN...TEMPERATURES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GET A                    
LITTLE COLDER THAN LAST NIGHT SO MORE FROST. THE CIRRUS OVER NORTHWEST          
INDIANA IS MAINLY THIN AND IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SOME OF THAT                   
COULD BRUSH THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.               
A LITTLE SHORT WAVE MOVED THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND NOW                  
WITH THE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST SOME CLOUDS OVER                       
SOUTHWEST CANADA MAY DRIFT INTO NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND                      
ASHTABULA COUNTY. IN FACT THE 21Z RUC MODELS SAYS IT WILL RAIN                  
OVERNIGHT OVER NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. I AM GOING TO KEEP IT DRY                
WITH SO MUCH RIDGING ALOFT EVEN THOUGH THE LAKE AND 850 MB                      
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE IS NEAR 18C. WILL ADD BECOMING PARTLY                    
CLOUDY FROM ASHTABULA COUNTY EAST. IF IT WASN`T FOR THAT THIS IS A              
TYPICAL PATTERN WHEN THE LAKESHORE CAN GET VERY COLD. BECAUSE OF                
THE CLOUD POTENTIAL LEFT PATCHY FROST FOR THE LAKESHORE AND JUST                
AREAS OF FROST INLAND.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                        
REINFORCING PUSH OF COLD AIR...ESSENTIALLY A SECONDARY COLD FRONT...            
WILL CROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. COMBINE THIS            
WITH FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES               
AND WILL SEE A NICE OVERRUNNING AREA DEVELOP. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD                
INCREASE STEADILY SUNDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED THOUGH. BEST UVV              
WILL DEVELOP IN THE MID LEVELS AND EVEN WITH A DRY AIRMASS SOME OF              
THE RAIN DROPS WILL REACH THE GROUND. ALL MODELS SEEM TO HINT AT A              
ZONE FROM SOUTHEAST LOWER MI TO NW PA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON WHERE               
SHOWERS ARE MOST LIKELY WITH A SHARP CUTOFF TO THE SOUTH. WILL KEEP             
MOST POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE NORTHERN              
COUNTIES AND KEEP THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES DRY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO               
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD BACK IN TUESDAY. LIGHT ENE FLOW              
WILL KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK ALTHOUGH WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE.                 
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT AS WIND             
COME AROUND FROM THE SSE WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.                                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                      
MODELS MORE IN AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NATIONS            
MIDSECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BOWLING IT EASTWARD. INTERESTINGLY...            
THE MODELS ARE FASTER EJECTING THE SYSTEM EASTWARD. I DOUBT THIS                
WILL HAPPEN AS UPPER LOWS...ESPECIALLY CUT OFFS...RARELY MOVE THAT              
QUICKLY. MAIN SYSTEM SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER THURSDAY               
WHILE A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. FRONT               
MAY JUST BRUSH THE AREA AS THE MAIN PUSH LOOKS TO BE EAST. WILL                 
NOT FORECAST TOO HIGH OF A POP AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY               
OF THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AND THE EXTENT OF THE SHOWER THAT WILL            
DEVELOP AROUND THE LOW. ALSO SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE NORTHERN                
FRONT WHICH COULD ACT AS THE NORTHERN EDGE FOR THE MOISTURE/UVV.                
WILL KEEP A LOW POP CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES               
FRIDAY AND THEN DRY IT OUT FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS GENERALLY                 
ABOVE NORMAL AS HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES RISE AS THE MAIN JET REMAINS                
WELL TO THE NORTH.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                      
A FEW CLOUDS APPROACHING MVFR LEVELS ARE LOCATED ALONG THE                      
LAKESHORE FROM LAKE COUNTY NORTHEAST INTO NY. THESE CLOUDS WILL                 
AFFECT THE ERIE TAF BUT BELIEVE WITH THE LIGHT DOWNSLOPING WINDS                
THE CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN SCATTERED. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR                     
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN OHIO WITH SOME PATCHY                  
GROUND FOG POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AS WE GET CLOSER TO SUNRISE.                   
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT                
WITH A FEW SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN A POSSIBILITY FOR THE TOLEDO AREA.              
FOR NOW HAVE KEPT IT FROM THE KTOL TAF WITH CHANCES LIKELY                      
INCREASING BEYOND 06Z MON.                                                      
OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE THE RULE AT ALL SITES EARLY                 
NEXT WEEK. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH OF A TOL              
TO YNG LINE ON MONDAY WITHA WARM FRONT IN THE VICINITY.                         
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO                    
THURSDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEMS APPROACH THE REGION.                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
QUIET CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE                  
OVERHEAD.  SOME INCREASE IN ENE WINDS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH                 
MONDAY NIGHT AS A BACKDOOR TYPE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE                
WITH THE HIGH REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC.                
CONCERN WITH SMALL CRAFT POTENTIAL MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.  HIGH MOVES             
SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST.             
LEFT THE WINDS WITH A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT THROUGH THURSDAY.  A                  
WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WHILE A CUTOFF SYSTEM             
DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.                   
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ003-006>014-             
     017>023-027>033-036>038-047.                                               
PA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ002-003.                 
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...ABE                                                                  
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA                                                            
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK                                                            
LONG TERM...KOSARIK/OUDEMAN                                                     
AVIATION...MULLEN                                                               
MARINE...OUDEMAN                                                                
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                       
136 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE STATE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...             
BRINGING ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT TO NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA. WIDESPREAD              
FREEZING AND FROSTY TEMPERATURES WILL AFFECT NORTHERN SECTIONS                  
ONCE AGAIN. ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH...A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND               
MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE               
OF SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A                
LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OVER QUEBEC AND               
ONTARIO BY SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHILLY               
RAIN TO THE NORTH BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MONDAY AND                   
TUESDAY. MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH                 
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS               
THE HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/...                                         
ANOTHER ROUND OF RELATIVELY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE                      
I295-300K THETA SFCS...AND A BAND OF 850-925 HPA FRONTOGENETIC                  
FORCING SLDING ENE ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN PENN OVERNIGHT. THE                   
RESULT WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS NEAR...AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE                    
REGION TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.                                           
21Z 13 KM/40 KM RUC...18Z 12 KM NAM...AND 15Z SREF ALL CONCUR ON                
INCREASING LOW/MID LVL UVVEL ACROSS THE SCENT MTNS...EAST ACROSS                
THE SUSQ VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOME VERY LIGHT QPF FOR SVRL                
HOURS UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY.                                             
INCREASED THE TEMPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH AS A RESULT OF                 
THE EXPECTED WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER...WHILE A FROSTY NIGHT IS                   
STILL IN STORE FOR THE NRN MTNS...WHERE 4 COUNTIES (MCKEAN...                   
POTTER...ELK AND CAMERON) EXPERIENCED A KILLING FREEZE EARLY                    
SATURDAY MORNING...AND END TO THEIR GROWING SEASON.                             
HAVE EXPANDED THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY FROST ADVISORY TO NOW                 
INCLUDE NRN LYCOMING COUNTY.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...                          
AFTER A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF FROST-AND FREEZE-PRODUCING TEMPS                 
OVERNIGHT... SUNDAY WILL START MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTH WITH               
LAYER STRATO/ALTO CU EXITING EAST FROM THE SUSQ VALLEY DURING THE               
MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. DURING THE AFTERNOON...SOME HIGH                     
CLOUDS WILL RACE EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF A FILLING               
UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. MOISTURE                  
WILL CONTINUE TO POOL AHEAD OF A VERY SLOW MOVING WEST TO EAST                  
ORIENTED BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT APPEARS ANY PRECIP                  
CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN TIER WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING               
AT THE EARLIEST.                                                                
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES (MAINLY ALTO CU BASED BETWEEN 8-12 KFT AGL)                 
WILL SLIDE SE AND COVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA AFTER 06Z MONDAY.                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                   
TROUGH DROPS THROUGH REGION ON MONDAY BRINGING HIGH CHANCE TO                   
LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY IN THE NE. AFTER TROUGH SWEEPS                           
THROUGH...HEIGHTS BOUNCE BACK BY RISING QUICKLY. A NARROW BUT                   
HEALTHY RIDGE ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TUE                 
AND SLIDE OVERHEAD WED. THIS WILL BRING WARMER HIGHS WITH SEASONAL              
LOWS.                                                                           
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE WEEK AS GFS AND ECMWF                 
HAVE DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF FEATURES. SW FLOW WILL INCREASE                
MOISTURE ACROSS REGION THU INTO FRI BUT DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN                    
CONFINED TO UPPER LOW OVER THE SE U.S. AND IN A WAVE SLIDING                    
ACROSS S CANADA. SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN THU WITH CHANCE ON              
FRI. THEN A BRIEF BREAK ON SAT BEFORE WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE                   
SOUTHEAST PUSHES SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO PA VIA SE FLOW AND               
BRINGS CHANCE FOR RAIN SUN INTO MON.                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                      
LATEST IR IMAGERY DEPICTS AREA OF STRATUS SLIDING NORTHEAST ALONG               
AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM KJST TO KIPT. SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND              
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WERE UNDERNEATH THIS CLOUD SHIELD AROUND KMDT                
AND WILL PERSIST THRU THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KBFD HAS CLEAR SKIES                  
WHICH MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND REDUCING                  
VSBYS TO IFR BETWEEN 09-13Z. IF CLOUDS CAN DEPART                               
KUNV/KAOO/KJST/KIPT PATCHY FOG AND MVFR COULD DEVELOP ALONG WITH                
SOME IFR TEMPO LIFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FOG.                               
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE CENTRAL PA AIRFIELDS                  
THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR CIGS/VSBYS THRU THIS EVE. THE UPPER LEVEL               
TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC WILL SWING SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND MAY               
BRING REDUCED CIGS AND VSBYS FOR KBFD/KUNV/KIPT. MOISTURE IS                    
MARGINAL EARLY MONDAY...HOWEVER SOME PATCHY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS                 
NORTHERN PA AIRFIELDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH FOG.                             
A SECOND AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO EASTERN ONTARIO/WESTERN              
QUEBEC MON...WHICH COULD SET THE STAGE FOR COLD AIR SLIDING SOUTH               
FROM CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WARM FRONTAL BNDRY APPROACHES                  
FROM THE SW AND INTRODUCES A CHC FOR REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS MON/TUE                 
WITH SOME SHOWERS.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ004-037-041-                  
042.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/LAMBERT                                                       
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT                                                      
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR                                                             
LONG TERM...RXR                                                                 
AVIATION...BEACHLER                                                             
</pre> pa                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
937 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MSAS ANLYS SHOWS SFC LOW SITTING IN SERN MT...WITH WEAK E-W                     
ORIENTED BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE ND/SD BORDER. LATEST RUC AND                
NAM12 SHOW THAT PCPN COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH TO MORE OF A                      
SCATTERED NATURE AS LEAD 7H VORT/TROF LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA...AND              
SECOND ONE PUSHES IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE REDRAWN WEATHER/POP             
GRIDS TO REFLECT BETTER TIMING OF FEATURES THROUGH THE DAY.                     
CURRENT FCSTD HIGHS LOOK GOOD WITH LITTLE DIURNAL TREND OFFERED.                
STILL LOOKS TO BE A SOGGY NEXT 24 HOURS.                                        
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY                                                   
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARDS...ROTATING A WEAK                  
EAST-WEST ORIENTED H7 SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE CWA. THIS                            
FEATURE...COUPLED WITH A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET...ARE THE PRIMARY                   
REASONS FOR THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND INTERMITTENT THUNDER MOVING                 
NORTHWARDS. EVENING SOUNDING REMAINED DRY BELOW 10KFT...BUT EXPECT              
DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER ALL BUT EVAPORATED BY THIS POINT. THEREFORE                 
WILL BEGIN PERIOD WITH WIDESPREAD FOR COVERAGE WITH                             
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING OF 35KT LOW LEVEL JET TO SURFACE                  
COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTS BUT EXPECT TO REMAIN WELL BELOW WARNING              
CRITERIA.                                                                       
AFTER THE H7 WAVE PASSES WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE HIGH POPS AS                
GUIDANCES SUGGESTS BROAD ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PERSISTS THROUGH                    
MONDAY AM. LI/MUCAPE VALUES REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH THAT THUNDER CAN                 
NOT BE RULED OUT.  SREF PWAT ANOMALIES CONTINUE TO INCREASE                     
TODAY...REACHING 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. AS               
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SIT AND SPIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS                   
STATES MONDAY...A DEVELOPING TROWAL FEATURE OVER THE EASTERN CWA                
WILL RESULT IN DECREASE POPS TUESDAY AM IN THE WEST...WITH SHOWERS              
HANG ON IN THE EAST.                                                            
DIURNAL TRENDS THIS PERIOD WILL BE INFLUENCED HEAVILY BY CLOUD                  
COVER. GUIDANCE VALUES REFLECT THIS WELL...SO WILL GO WITH MAV/MET              
GUIDANCE.                                                                       
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY                                     
THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED FROM               
MINNESOTA TO EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WITH A SURFACE FRONT JUST EAST OF               
THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE PLAINS BEHIND THE                     
EXITING SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN REMAINS DOMINANT OVER THE AREA              
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE                    
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE GREATLY WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS BEGINNING                  
THURSDAY NIGHT. BOTH HINT AT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING                   
SOMEWHERE OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT...SO WILL                 
LEAVE A SMALL POP IN FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY                  
BECOME EXTREMELY MESSY WITH BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. THE GFS              
STRENGTHENS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE REGION...RESULTING               
IN PRECIPITATION OVER THE CWA ON FRIDAY. IT THEN MOVES THE SYSTEM               
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE                   
PLAINS ON SATURDAY. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND TRACKS HIGH                     
PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...THEN DEVELOPS AN INTENSE LOW               
PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH A LARGE AREA OF                        
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY. DUE TO THESE                
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...WILL STICK WITH PERSISTENCE AND HAVE NOT              
MADE ANY CHANGES TO THE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY TIME PERIODS.                        
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS              
H85 TEMPS REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. AGAIN...DUE TO MODEL                     
DIFFERENCES...TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER TWO DAYS OF THE PERIOD                
ARE TRICKY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA                
VS THE OTHER MODELS. POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR DAYTIME HIGHS TO NOT                
GET OUT OF THE 50S BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SCT -SHRAS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME MORE NMRS LATER IN THE DAY               
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. OVC VFR CIGS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY LOWER                 
INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY BY LATER IN THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT               
HOURS. VSBYS MAY FALL TO 3-5SM WITHIN HEAVIER SHRAS.                            
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...HINTZ                                                                  
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY                                                           
LONG TERM...PARKIN                                                              
AVIATION...TMT                                                                  
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN                                                            
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX                                  
848 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...PROBABILITIES WERE RECONFIGURED FROM NOW TIL MIDNIGHT AS              
A SUBSIDENT SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALOFT WAS LIMITING DEVELOPMENTS.             
NEW RAOB DATA FROM KDRT AND KCRP REINFORCE IDEA AND POINT TO                    
SEVERAL INVERSIONS IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS AS TEMPERATURES HAD                
INCREASED AND MOISTURE DECREASED IN THE ZONE OF SOUTH-WESTERLIES                
ALOFT. AFTER MIDNIGHT..PROBABILITIES STILL ON TRACK AS LATEST RUC               
SHOWS LAST DISTURBANCE PUSHING TROUGH THROUGH EASTERN CWA INTO                  
RICHER MOISTURE FIELD. THIS WILL DESTABILIZE UPPER LEVELS AT THE                
SAME TIME LOWERING SUBSIDENT SOUTHWEST WIND INFLUENCE.                          
THUS..ACTIVITY SHOULD FORM AGAIN..MAINLY EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR              
LATE TONIGHT.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2008/                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
RADAR CONVECTIVE TRENDS SHOW A SMALL POCKET OF WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY             
TO AFFECT THE SAN ANTONIO METRO TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 2Z. THE                
MORE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE IS FORMING ALONG A ACT TO JCT                  
AXIS. THIS CONVECTIVE FOCUS SHOULD DROP SLOWLY ESE THROUGH THE                  
NIGHT, AFFECTING THE AUS AREA AFTER 03Z AND POSSIBLY GLANCING THE               
SAT METRO AREA AFTER 08Z. BY 11Z, MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE WEATHER                
SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT TO                
BRING NEARLY STEADY NW WINDS OF AROUND 8-14 KTS ACROSS THE AREA                 
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. NOCTURNAL STRATOCUMULUS FOR THE              
ESCARPMENT TERMINALS SHOULD FORM MOSTLY AFTER 04Z WITH THE ADDED                
INSTABILITY AND MID CLOUD PRESENCE IN THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE              
EXEPCTED TO RESUME BY DAYBREAK.                                                 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2008/                           
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
THIS AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS                  
WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES IN THE WARM AND                   
UNSTABLE AIRMASS...IN ADVANCE OF THE DRY LINE AND COLD FRONT.                   
THE PRE-FRONTAL TROF/DRY LINE IS EAST OF K6R6 AND KSJT WITH THE                 
COLD FRONT HAVING PASSED THROUGH KINK AND KLBB. THE BEST LOW LEVEL              
CONVERGENCE WILL OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG            
AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS IS               
LOCATED. THUS THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED                
WITH THE FROPA WILL BE MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. THE FRONTAL                  
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR CWFA OVERNIGHT AND WILL CLEAR OUR                 
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE SOME POST-                    
FRONTAL SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES TUESDAY                 
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST.                      
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER                
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS PATTERN                 
WILL RESULT IN COOL MORNINGS AND WARM AFTERNOONS.                               
GULF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE CWFA ON FRIDAY. ATMOSPHERIC           
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY THRU MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF                
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THUS A WET                 
WEEKEND IS EXPECTED. ATTM THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE               
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS HAS               
BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT SO WENT WITH THE                
HPC DAY 7 GRAPHIC FOR FRONTAL TIMING.                                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              67  86  59  88  57 /  30  10   0   0   0         
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  66  86  54  86  52 /  30  10   0   0   0         
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           68  88  59  87  58 /  10  -    0   0   0         
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       68  86  58  88  54 /  30  10   0   0   0         
&&                                                                              
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
02/18                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                            
1139 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO REMAIN EAST OF THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING...AND             
EXPECTING THIS TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT. THE BIG QUESTION            
WILL BE IF LOW CLOUDS FORM...AND IF SO HOW LOW DO CEILINGS DROP. STILL          
THINKING AMA AND GUY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF LOW CEILINGS...SO                  
CONTINUED WITH MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z. CEILINGS COULD DROP A               
LITTLE LOWER...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR IFR CONDITIONS AS OF NOW.           
LEFT VCSH REMARKS IN GUY IN CASE ANY WRAP AROUND PRECIP SKIRTS THE              
NORTHERN AREAS OF THE REGION. UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGHOUT THE                
PANHANDLES TOMORROW WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST...FIRST AT DHT           
THEN AT AMA AND GUY.                                                            
TAB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2008/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
ANOTHER REVISED PACKAGE SENT TO LOWER POPS ACCORDINGLY BASED ON RADAR           
TRENDS. ALSO LOWERED MIN TEMPS TONIGHT SINCE MANY LOCATIONS AT OR               
NEAR EARLIER FCST LOWS.                                                         
ANDRADE                                                                         
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2008/                           
UPDATE...                                                                       
SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO RE ORIENT POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR                 
TRENDS...THAT IS A TIGHT GRADIENT FROM W TO E.                                  
ANDRADE                                                                         
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2008/                           
AVIATION...                                                                     
BULK OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS STAYED EAST OF THE             
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO THE                
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THINK LOW CLOUDS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT            
AT THE GUY AND AMA TAF SITES...THEREFORE INSERTED MVFR CEILINGS                 
BEGINNING AT 03/04Z. ALSO INCLUDED SOME VCSH REMARKS AT THE GUY TAF             
SITE TOMORROW MORNING FOR ANY WRAP AROUND RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD           
RETURN DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS. ONLY OTHER AVIATION CONCERN WILL           
BE THE WINDS. TIMED WIND SHIFT ACCORDINGLY ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH            
A NORTHWEST WIND AT DHT AT 09Z...AND THEN AMA AND GUY AS THE UPPER              
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA.                                                 
TAB                                                                             
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2008/                           
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO CENTER ON STRONG UPPER TROUGH                
WEST OF THE AREA.                                                               
BASE OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH WAS OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS                    
AFTERNOON WITH STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND UPPER JET STREAK ROUNDING THE            
BASE OF THE TROUGH. SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT HAS LEAD TO WIDESPREAD                
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO/WESTERN TEXAS           
TODAY. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/RAIN OVER THE PANHANDLES HAS                  
RESULTED IN LIMITED SURFACE HEATING/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...CONVECTION          
IS STILL POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER FURTHER WEST...LESS CLOUD               
COVER HAS RESULTED IN GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH RUC              
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATING SBCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. SYSTEM WILL             
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST TONIGHT AND WITH LIFT STILL MAXIMIZED AHEAD OF            
MAIN UPPER CIRCULATION...PRECIP WILL LAST INTO MONDAY.                          
UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE PANHANDLES MONDAY MORNING AND LIFTS INTO            
CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SURFACE LOW FOLLOWING A            
SIMILAR ROUTE. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER                
CIRCULATION WILL SUPPORT WRAP AROUND SHOWERS AND ISOLATED                       
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY. PRECIP WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST                 
DURING THE DAY WITH THE BULK OF ANY SHOWERS/CONVECTION ENDING BY                
LATE AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART...WHICH WILL                  
LIKELY LEAD TO TEMPS ONLY CLIMBING INTO 70S WITH PERHAPS COOLER 60S             
FARTHER NORTH WHERE THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR WRAP AROUND SHOWERS                
LIE.                                                                            
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS                 
TUESDAY. HOWEVER AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE LOWER GREAT                 
LAKES WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVELS WILL TRANSITION TOWARD MORE OF A             
ZONAL FLOW REGIME. TUESDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE TEMPS IN THE 70S AS              
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS. BUT AS THIS HIGH                  
SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN THE               
LEE OF THE ROCKIES. WITH THE SURFACE GRADIENT TURNING MORE OUT OF               
THE SOUTH...LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED                
AND WILL LEAD TO TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.                   
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO NEXT UPPER TROUGH THAT IS SLATED TO DROP                
SOUTH...INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MEDIUM                 
RANGE MODELS DISPLAY TIMING AND TRACKING DISCREPANCIES ALTHOUGH                 
STILL LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR          
INTRUSION TO THE AREA BY SUNDAY ALONG WITH THE NEXT POSSIBILITY OF              
PRECIP.                                                                         
CLK                                                                             
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND MODERATE RAINFALL TODAY WILL HELP                  
ALLEVIATE ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR A LITTLE WHILE.              
DRY AND WARMER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES FOR MUCH OF THE                
WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH HEADS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION                
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES            
GENERALLY AT OR AROUND 20 PERCENT AND 20 FOOT WINDS UNDER 25 KNOTS              
WILL PRECLUDE ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF           
THE WEEK.                                                                       
CLK                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
10/02                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                            
1057 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
ANOTHER REVISED PACKAGE SENT TO LOWER POPS ACCORDINGLY BASED ON RADAR           
TRENDS. ALSO LOWERED MIN TEMPS TONIGHT SINCE MANY LOCATIONS AT OR               
NEAR EARLIER FCST LOWS.                                                         
ANDRADE                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2008/                          
UPDATE...                                                                       
SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO RE ORIENT POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR                 
TRENDS...THAT IS A TIGHT GRADIENT FROM W TO E.                                  
ANDRADE                                                                         
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2008/                           
AVIATION...                                                                     
BULK OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS STAYED EAST OF THE             
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO THE                
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THINK LOW CLOUDS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT            
AT THE GUY AND AMA TAF SITES...THEREFORE INSERTED MVFR CEILINGS                 
BEGINNING AT 03/04Z. ALSO INCLUDED SOME VCSH REMARKS AT THE GUY TAF             
SITE TOMORROW MORNING FOR ANY WRAP AROUND RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD           
RETURN DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS. ONLY OTHER AVIATION CONCERN WILL           
BE THE WINDS. TIMED WIND SHIFT ACCORDINGLY ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH            
A NORTHWEST WIND AT DHT AT 09Z...AND THEN AMA AND GUY AS THE UPPER              
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA.                                                 
TAB                                                                             
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2008/                           
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO CENTER ON STRONG UPPER TROUGH                
WEST OF THE AREA.                                                               
BASE OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH WAS OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS                    
AFTERNOON WITH STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND UPPER JET STREAK ROUNDING THE            
BASE OF THE TROUGH. SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT HAS LEAD TO WIDESPREAD                
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO/WESTERN TEXAS           
TODAY. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/RAIN OVER THE PANHANDLES HAS                  
RESULTED IN LIMITED SURFACE HEATING/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...CONVECTION          
IS STILL POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER FURTHER WEST...LESS CLOUD               
COVER HAS RESULTED IN GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH RUC              
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATING SBCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. SYSTEM WILL             
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST TONIGHT AND WITH LIFT STILL MAXIMIZED AHEAD OF            
MAIN UPPER CIRCULATION...PRECIP WILL LAST INTO MONDAY.                          
UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE PANHANDLES MONDAY MORNING AND LIFTS INTO            
CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SURFACE LOW FOLLOWING A            
SIMILAR ROUTE. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER                
CIRCULATION WILL SUPPORT WRAP AROUND SHOWERS AND ISOLATED                       
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY. PRECIP WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST                 
DURING THE DAY WITH THE BULK OF ANY SHOWERS/CONVECTION ENDING BY                
LATE AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART...WHICH WILL                  
LIKELY LEAD TO TEMPS ONLY CLIMBING INTO 70S WITH PERHAPS COOLER 60S             
FARTHER NORTH WHERE THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR WRAP AROUND SHOWERS                
LIE.                                                                            
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS                 
TUESDAY. HOWEVER AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE LOWER GREAT                 
LAKES WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVELS WILL TRANSITION TOWARD MORE OF A             
ZONAL FLOW REGIME. TUESDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE TEMPS IN THE 70S AS              
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS. BUT AS THIS HIGH                  
SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN THE               
LEE OF THE ROCKIES. WITH THE SURFACE GRADIENT TURNING MORE OUT OF               
THE SOUTH...LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED                
AND WILL LEAD TO TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.                   
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO NEXT UPPER TROUGH THAT IS SLATED TO DROP                
SOUTH...INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MEDIUM                 
RANGE MODELS DISPLAY TIMING AND TRACKING DISCREPANCIES ALTHOUGH                 
STILL LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR          
INTRUSION TO THE AREA BY SUNDAY ALONG WITH THE NEXT POSSIBILITY OF              
PRECIP.                                                                         
CLK                                                                             
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND MODERATE RAINFALL TODAY WILL HELP                  
ALLEVIATE ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR A LITTLE WHILE.              
DRY AND WARMER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES FOR MUCH OF THE                
WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH HEADS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION                
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES            
GENERALLY AT OR AROUND 20 PERCENT AND 20 FOOT WINDS UNDER 25 KNOTS              
WILL PRECLUDE ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF           
THE WEEK.                                                                       
CLK                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                            
729 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO RE ORIENT POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR                 
TRENDS...THAT IS A TIGHT GRADIENT FROM W TO E.                                  
ANDRADE                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2008/                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
BULK OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS STAYED EAST OF THE             
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO THE                
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THINK LOW CLOUDS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT            
AT THE GUY AND AMA TAF SITES...THEREFORE INSERTED MVFR CEILINGS                 
BEGINNING AT 03/04Z. ALSO INCLUDED SOME VCSH REMARKS AT THE GUY TAF             
SITE TOMORROW MORNING FOR ANY WRAP AROUND RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD           
RETURN DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS. ONLY OTHER AVIATION CONCERN WILL           
BE THE WINDS. TIMED WIND SHIFT ACCORDINGLY ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH            
A NORTHWEST WIND AT DHT AT 09Z...AND THEN AMA AND GUY AS THE UPPER              
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA.                                                 
TAB                                                                             
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2008/                           
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO CENTER ON STRONG UPPER TROUGH                
WEST OF THE AREA.                                                               
BASE OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH WAS OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS                    
AFTERNOON WITH STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND UPPER JET STREAK ROUNDING THE            
BASE OF THE TROUGH. SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT HAS LEAD TO WIDESPREAD                
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO/WESTERN TEXAS           
TODAY. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/RAIN OVER THE PANHANDLES HAS                  
RESULTED IN LIMITED SURFACE HEATING/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...CONVECTION          
IS STILL POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER FURTHER WEST...LESS CLOUD               
COVER HAS RESULTED IN GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH RUC              
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATING SBCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. SYSTEM WILL             
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST TONIGHT AND WITH LIFT STILL MAXIMIZED AHEAD OF            
MAIN UPPER CIRCULATION...PRECIP WILL LAST INTO MONDAY.                          
UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE PANHANDLES MONDAY MORNING AND LIFTS INTO            
CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SURFACE LOW FOLLOWING A            
SIMILAR ROUTE. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER                
CIRCULATION WILL SUPPORT WRAP AROUND SHOWERS AND ISOLATED                       
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY. PRECIP WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST                 
DURING THE DAY WITH THE BULK OF ANY SHOWERS/CONVECTION ENDING BY                
LATE AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART...WHICH WILL                  
LIKELY LEAD TO TEMPS ONLY CLIMBING INTO 70S WITH PERHAPS COOLER 60S             
FARTHER NORTH WHERE THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR WRAP AROUND SHOWERS                
LIE.                                                                            
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS                 
TUESDAY. HOWEVER AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE LOWER GREAT                 
LAKES WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVELS WILL TRANSITION TOWARD MORE OF A             
ZONAL FLOW REGIME. TUESDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE TEMPS IN THE 70S AS              
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS. BUT AS THIS HIGH                  
SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN THE               
LEE OF THE ROCKIES. WITH THE SURFACE GRADIENT TURNING MORE OUT OF               
THE SOUTH...LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED                
AND WILL LEAD TO TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.                   
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO NEXT UPPER TROUGH THAT IS SLATED TO DROP                
SOUTH...INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MEDIUM                 
RANGE MODELS DISPLAY TIMING AND TRACKING DISCREPANCIES ALTHOUGH                 
STILL LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR          
INTRUSION TO THE AREA BY SUNDAY ALONG WITH THE NEXT POSSIBILITY OF              
PRECIP.                                                                         
CLK                                                                             
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND MODERATE RAINFALL TODAY WILL HELP                  
ALLEVIATE ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR A LITTLE WHILE.              
DRY AND WARMER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES FOR MUCH OF THE                
WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH HEADS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION                
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES            
GENERALLY AT OR AROUND 20 PERCENT AND 20 FOOT WINDS UNDER 25 KNOTS              
WILL PRECLUDE ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF           
THE WEEK.                                                                       
CLK                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                            
647 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2008                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
BULK OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS STAYED EAST OF THE             
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO THE                
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THINK LOW CLOUDS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT            
AT THE GUY AND AMA TAF SITES...THEREFORE INSERTED MVFR CEILINGS                 
BEGINNING AT 03/04Z. ALSO INCLUDED SOME VCSH REMARKS AT THE GUY TAF             
SITE TOMORROW MORNING FOR ANY WRAP AROUND RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD           
RETURN DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS. ONLY OTHER AVIATION CONCERN WILL           
BE THE WINDS. TIMED WIND SHIFT ACCORDINGLY ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH            
A NORTHWEST WIND AT DHT AT 09Z...AND THEN AMA AND GUY AS THE UPPER              
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA.                                                 
TAB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO CENTER ON STRONG UPPER TROUGH                
WEST OF THE AREA.                                                               
BASE OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH WAS OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS                    
AFTERNOON WITH STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND UPPER JET STREAK ROUNDING THE            
BASE OF THE TROUGH. SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT HAS LEAD TO WIDESPREAD                
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO/WESTERN TEXAS           
TODAY. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/RAIN OVER THE PANHANDLES HAS                  
RESULTED IN LIMITED SURFACE HEATING/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...CONVECTION          
IS STILL POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER FURTHER WEST...LESS CLOUD               
COVER HAS RESULTED IN GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH RUC              
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATING SBCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. SYSTEM WILL             
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST TONIGHT AND WITH LIFT STILL MAXIMIZED AHEAD OF            
MAIN UPPER CIRCULATION...PRECIP WILL LAST INTO MONDAY.                          
UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE PANHANDLES MONDAY MORNING AND LIFTS INTO            
CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SURFACE LOW FOLLOWING A            
SIMILAR ROUTE. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER                
CIRCULATION WILL SUPPORT WRAP AROUND SHOWERS AND ISOLATED                       
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY. PRECIP WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST                 
DURING THE DAY WITH THE BULK OF ANY SHOWERS/CONVECTION ENDING BY                
LATE AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART...WHICH WILL                  
LIKELY LEAD TO TEMPS ONLY CLIMBING INTO 70S WITH PERHAPS COOLER 60S             
FARTHER NORTH WHERE THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR WRAP AROUND SHOWERS                
LIE.                                                                            
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS                 
TUESDAY. HOWEVER AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE LOWER GREAT                 
LAKES WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVELS WILL TRANSITION TOWARD MORE OF A             
ZONAL FLOW REGIME. TUESDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE TEMPS IN THE 70S AS              
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS. BUT AS THIS HIGH                  
SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN THE               
LEE OF THE ROCKIES. WITH THE SURFACE GRADIENT TURNING MORE OUT OF               
THE SOUTH...LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED                
AND WILL LEAD TO TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.                   
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO NEXT UPPER TROUGH THAT IS SLATED TO DROP                
SOUTH...INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MEDIUM                 
RANGE MODELS DISPLAY TIMING AND TRACKING DISCREPANCIES ALTHOUGH                 
STILL LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR          
INTRUSION TO THE AREA BY SUNDAY ALONG WITH THE NEXT POSSIBILITY OF              
PRECIP.                                                                         
CLK                                                                             
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND MODERATE RAINFALL TODAY WILL HELP                  
ALLEVIATE ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR A LITTLE WHILE.              
DRY AND WARMER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES FOR MUCH OF THE                
WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH HEADS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION                
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES            
GENERALLY AT OR AROUND 20 PERCENT AND 20 FOOT WINDS UNDER 25 KNOTS              
WILL PRECLUDE ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF           
THE WEEK.                                                                       
CLK                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
10/02                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                            
336 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO CENTER ON STRONG UPPER TROUGH                
WEST OF THE AREA.                                                               
BASE OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH WAS OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS                    
AFTERNOON WITH STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND UPPER JET STREAK ROUNDING THE            
BASE OF THE TROUGH. SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT HAS LEAD TO WIDESPREAD                
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO/WESTERN TEXAS           
TODAY. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/RAIN OVER THE PANHANDLES HAS                  
RESULTED IN LIMITED SURFACE HEATING/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...CONVECTION          
IS STILL POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER FURTHER WEST...LESS CLOUD               
COVER HAS RESULTED IN GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH RUC              
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATING SBCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. SYSTEM WILL             
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST TONIGHT AND WITH LIFT STILL MAXIMIZED AHEAD OF            
MAIN UPPER CIRCULATION...PRECIP WILL LAST INTO MONDAY.                          
UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE PANHANDLES MONDAY MORNING AND LIFTS INTO            
CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SURFACE LOW FOLLOWING A            
SIMILAR ROUTE. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER                
CIRCULATION WILL SUPPORT WRAP AROUND SHOWERS AND ISOLATED                       
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY. PRECIP WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST                 
DURING THE DAY WITH THE BULK OF ANY SHOWERS/CONVECTION ENDING BY                
LATE AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART...WHICH WILL                  
LIKELY LEAD TO TEMPS ONLY CLIMBING INTO 70S WITH PERHAPS COOLER 60S             
FARTHER NORTH WHERE THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR WRAP AROUND SHOWERS                
LIE.                                                                            
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS                 
TUESDAY. HOWEVER AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE LOWER GREAT                 
LAKES WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVELS WILL TRANSITION TOWARD MORE OF A             
ZONAL FLOW REGIME. TUESDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE TEMPS IN THE 70S AS              
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS. BUT AS THIS HIGH                  
SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN THE               
LEE OF THE ROCKIES. WITH THE SURFACE GRADIENT TURNING MORE OUT OF               
THE SOUTH...LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED                
AND WILL LEAD TO TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.                   
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO NEXT UPPER TROUGH THAT IS SLATED TO DROP                
SOUTH...INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MEDIUM                 
RANGE MODELS DISPLAY TIMING AND TRACKING DISCREPANCIES ALTHOUGH                 
STILL LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR          
INTRUSION TO THE AREA BY SUNDAY ALONG WITH THE NEXT POSSIBILITY OF              
PRECIP.                                                                         
CLK                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND MODERATE RAINFALL TODAY WILL HELP                  
ALLEVIATE ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR A LITTLE WHILE.              
DRY AND WARMER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES FOR MUCH OF THE                
WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH HEADS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION                
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES            
GENERALLY AT OR AROUND 20 PERCENT AND 20 FOOT WINDS UNDER 25 KNOTS              
WILL PRECLUDE ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF           
THE WEEK.                                                                       
CLK                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
AMARILLO TX                54  72  46  73  48 /  50  20   5   5   5             
BEAVER OK                  57  68  48  73  46 /  70  60  20   5   5             
BOISE CITY OK              52  70  44  71  43 /  40  30  20   5   5             
BORGER TX                  58  74  51  74  52 /  50  40   5   5   5             
BOYS RANCH TX              55  75  48  76  47 /  50  20   5   5   5             
CANYON TX                  53  75  46  74  45 /  50  20   5   5   5             
CLARENDON TX               57  72  49  75  51 /  70  30   5   5   5             
DALHART TX                 51  68  44  73  44 /  40  30   5   5   5             
GUYMON OK                  55  69  46  72  44 /  60  40  20   5   5             
HEREFORD TX                52  74  46  75  46 /  50  20   5   5   5             
LIPSCOMB TX                60  68  49  72  47 /  80  60  20   5   5             
PAMPA TX                   58  70  50  71  53 /  50  40  10   5   5             
SHAMROCK TX                59  71  53  75  51 /  80  50  10   5   5             
WELLINGTON TX              60  73  53  77  52 /  90  50  10   5   5             
&&                                                                              
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
01/05                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
302 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT                                   
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT...THEN RAIN                
CHANCES AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.                                         
17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM SOUTH DAKOTA...            
THROUGH WESTERN IOWA AND INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. RADAR SHOWING A                
BAND OF SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA...INTO CENTRAL AND             
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING BACK EDGE OF             
CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.              
HOWEVER...FARTHER WEST STRATO CUMULUS CLOUDS WERE FILLING IN RATHER             
QUICKLY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL IOWA.                                        
05.12Z MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN THE NEAR               
TERM...RUC SHOWING FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE 600MB-700MB LAYER               
TO CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING TAKING BAND OF SHOWERS WITH              
IT. KEPT HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH THIS EVENING IN ZONE OF               
STRONGER FORCING. THE CLEARING TREND WILL BE SHORT LIVED THIS                   
EVENING AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE CLOUDS TO FILL IN RATHER QUICKLY THIS             
EVENING ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST.                             
ON MONDAY AREAS WILL BE BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. ALTHOUGH MODELS                    
SHOWING SOME WEAK 850-700MB QG CONVERGENCE DURING THE MORNING                   
HOURS...HAVE KEPT LOW END POPS ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH DURING THE             
MORNING HOURS. NEXT TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE PLAINS                
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND HEADS TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND                
TUESDAY. BOTH NAM AND GFS CONSISTENT IN TAKING DEEP LAYER                       
FORCING/LIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ONLY                
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE POP/WEATHER GRIDS IN THIS TIME FRAME             
WITH LIKELY POPS GOING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.                                
SYSTEM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL                
CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT LOW END POPS IN THIS TIME FRAME PER                     
PREVIOUS GRIDDED DATABASE.                                                      
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MAV NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE ALTHOUGH MAY BE A             
LITTLE ON THE WARM SIDE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND HAVE UNDERCUT A                    
LITTLE. THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON AMOUNT            
OF SUNSHINE.                                                                    
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY                                            
CONFIDENCE RATHER LOW IN THIS TIME FRAME AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW             
PATTERN SHIFT AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ZONAL FLOW TO PERSIST AT            
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THURSDAY.               
AS THE HIGH SIDES EAST FRIDAY MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON HOW FAST               
SOUTHERLY FLOW RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION. GFS SHOWS               
WARM ADVECTION/LIFT ACROSS THE AREA...WHILE ECMWF KEEPS THIS                    
AREA FARTHER WEST. EVEN IN THE GFS LIFT IS WEAK AND THUS HAVE PULED             
POPS OUT FOR FRIDAY. FLOW THEN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED SATURDAY AND              
SUNDAY AS LARGE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. 05.00Z ECMWF              
DEEPER AND SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE VERSUS THE 05.06Z GFS. IN FACT              
ECMWF SHOWING 500MB HEIGHTS 4 TO 6 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW                    
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL ACROSS THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST. ECMWF APPEARS             
TO THE OUTLIER WITH THIS SCENARIO AND THUS CONCUR WITH NCEP                     
DISCUSSION OF A BLENDED APPROACH FOR DAYS 6 AND 7.                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...TONIGHT AND MONDAY                                                  
THE WARM FRONT ACROSS IA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH TONIGHT AND                
MONDAY. THE FORCING AND LIFT WITH THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE              
NORTH OF THE TAF SITES...WITH RATHER SMALL -SHRA CHANCES AT THE TAF             
SITES TONIGHT/MON. OF BIGGER CONCERN IS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE                    
SPREADING NORTH TONIGHT. THIS MOISTURE ALREADY MANIFESTING ITSELF AS            
SCT-LOCALLY BKN MVFR CLOUDS/CIGS WEST OF THE AREA. AS THE AIRMASS               
COOLS TONIGHT AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH AND            
EAST...MVFR/LOCAL IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS IN BR EXPECTED LATER                  
TONIGHT INTO MID MORNING MON. WITH SOME INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL WINDS             
AND DEEPER MIXING...THESE CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY LATE MON            
MORNING AND FOR THE AFTERNOON. CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AGAIN            
LATE MON NIGHT/TUE AS A SFC AND MID LEVEL TROUGH WITH LIFT/MOISTURE             
AND HIGHER RAIN/ISOLATED TSRA CHANCES MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION.             
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT/LONG TERM...RABERDING                                                     
AVIATION..........RRS                                                           
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
530 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
09Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED AN UPR                
TROUGH OVER THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS WITH RIDGING OVER THE GREAT                  
LAKES. A PLUME OF MOISTURE AND FORCING AHEAD OF THE UPR TROUGH                  
SUPPORTING AN AREA OF PCPN FROM THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH IA AND MN.               
PRECIPITABLE WATER PLOT INDICATING VALUES OF AROUND 1.3 INCHES ALONG            
THE AXIS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
TODAY...MODELS SEEM TO BE TRENDING SLOWER YET WITH ADVANCE OF UPR               
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NRN PLAINS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE               
PROMINENT RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES. THE RIDGE IS               
FCST TO GRADUALLY MOVE EAST TODAY WITH THE ADVANCE OF THE UPR TROUGH            
ALLOWING FOR THE SFC TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE FAR WRN PORTION OF THE             
CWA. GIVEN THE HIGH PCPN WATER VALUES OF OVER AN INCH MOVING IN                 
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH...DECIDED TO KEEP LIKELY POPS IN FOR              
THE FAR WEST THIS AFTERNOON BUT TRIMMED BACK POPS TO SLIGHT CHC OVER            
WRN MQT...DICKINSON AND MNM COUNTIES LATE. NOT SURE HOW WELL WE WILL            
MIX TODAY GIVEN THICKENING OF HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AND                     
PREVAILING SE FLOW...BUT DECIDED TO FAVOR SLIGHTLY WARMER MET                   
GUIDANCE WHICH IS ALSO IN LINE WITH GOING FCST OF 60-65F. SNDGS                 
INDICATE EVEN IF WE MIX TO JUST OVER 900MB...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO               
REACH INTO THE LOWER 60S TO MID 60S. WARMEST READINGS CAN BE                    
EXPECTED IN DOWNSLOPE SE FLOW AREAS... WITH COOLEST READINGS                    
DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN.                                                      
TONIGHT...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC TROUGH COME MORE INTO PHASE              
AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. DPVA AHEAD OF THE UPR                  
TROUGH AND A BROAD AREA OF 300-305K ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL COMBINE                
WITH STRONG MOISTURE INFLOW (PWAT VALUES OF 1.00-1.25 INCHES) TO                
SUPPORT DECENT COVERAGE OF RAIN. KEPT LIKELY POPS OVER MUCH OF THE              
FCST AREA.                                                                      
WED INTO THU...ANY LEFTOVER RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEPART THE EAST HALF            
OF THE CWA WED MORNING. MODELS THEN INDICATE A MORE ZONAL FLOW                  
PATTERN WITH A MID LEVEL LOW AND SFC TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NRN                  
MANITOBA INTO NW ONTARIO AND A DRY WRLY FLOW OVER THE UPR GREAT                 
LAKES.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KCMX THROUGH THE PERIODS WITH LLW               
OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO KCMX DUE TO            
SE WINDS WHICH IS DOWNSLOPE FOR THEM.ADDED RAIN IN LATER IN THE                 
AFTERNOON AND LLWS MON NIGHT.                                                   
KSAW IS TRICKIER AND CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE LOW AT THAT SITE                
BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED EARLIER TONIGHT. LOW CIGS EARLIER WERE                   
TEMPORARILY CAUSED BY RAIN AND ALSO A BIT OF UPSLOPE. THESE LOW                 
CLOUDS ERODED AWAY AND THEN KESC WHICH IS UPSTREAM WITH SOUTHERLY               
FLOW HAD FOG AND LOW CLOUDS FORMED AND THEN DISSIPATED AS THE WINDS             
PICKED UP THERE. SOUTH WINDS AT KSAW ARE UPSLOPE AND WITH KESC                  
HAVING FOG EARLIER WITH A VLIFR CIG AND VIS...THINK MOISTURE FROM               
LAKE MICHIGAN COULD COME INTO PLAY THIS FORECAST AND STARTED OFF                
WITH MVFR VIS AND THEN TEMPO IFR VIS AND LIFR CIG WHICH SHOULD BE IN            
PLACE AT SUNRISE. KSAW IS TRYING TO GET SOME FOG OR LOW STRATUS TO              
FORM AS VIS HAS DROPPED TO 7 NOW...SO ONLY A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE              
THINGS DROP OFF. WILL GO MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH THIS FORECAST WITH               
LAKE MICHIGAN FOG/STRATUS POSSIBILITY OVERNIGHT. AFTER                          
SUNRISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE BACK TO VFR AND LAST THROUGH THE REST            
OF THE PERIOD WITH SHOWERS LATE IN THE PERIOD. LLWS OVERNIGHT AT                
KSAW ALSO.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO            
AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA ARE CREATING NBREEZY                
SOUTHEAST WINDS WHICH WILL CONTINUE ON LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY...                   
ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST HALF WHERE WINDS GUST SPEEDS OF UP TO 30 KT              
ARE POSSIBLE. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE            
THIS AFTERNOON AND CROSS THE REST OF THE LAKE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY            
MORNING...WINDS SHOULD FALL BELOW 20 KT AND GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE              
SOUTHWEST. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS CENTRAL CANADA              
TO HUDSON BAY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES               
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES CAUSING AN INCREASING WEST WIND OVER LAKE              
SUPERIOR...POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO 30 KNOTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND                 
THURSDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE. THE HIGH PRESSURE             
AREA OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES SHOULD EXPAND UP INTO THE LAKE               
SUPERIOR ON FRIDAY BRINGING WINDS DOWN BELOW 20 KT. AS THE FRONTAL              
BOUNDARY SET UP OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY            
SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 25 KT MAY AFFECT LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THIS PERIOD.        
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE                                                            
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DICUSSION...VOSS                                                       
AVIATION...GM                                                                   
MARINE...DLG                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
147 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A STRONG UPPER LOW WAS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WITH A               
TRAILING COLD/COOL (AIR MASS) FRONT ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. RADAR                
TRENDS MONDAY EVENING AND EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE THE BULK OF THE               
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. EARLIER              
THIS EVENING...A BAND OF HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ONE OF THE              
STRONGER COMPLEXES ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA/WESTERN ARKANSAS LED TO              
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF TO LOCALLY ONE INCH SOUTH AND                      
SOUTHWEST OF THE SPRINGFIELD AREA. AS OF 1 AM...THE BULK OF THE                 
HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED SOUTHEAST OF SPRINGFIELD...AND                    
MAINLY AFFECTING AREAS OF WEST PLAINS...ALTON AND EMINENCE. WATER               
VAPOR AND RUC ANALYSIS STILL SHOWING EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES ACROSS                
KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.                                                   
JLT                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
AS THE STRONGEST MOISTURE ADVECTION REMAINS SOUTH OF THE                        
REGION...HAVE OPTED TO DECREASE PERCENTAGES TO LIKELY EAST OF                   
SPRINGFIELD...TO SCATTERED WEST OF SPRINGFIELD. HOWEVER...UPPER                 
LEVEL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND WEAK ISENTROPIC                
LIFT AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY OF THE COLD POOL...WILL LIKELY                   
CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION LATER TODAY. WILL LIKELY                 
HOLD OFF UNTIL DAWN TO ADJUST THE MAIN PRECIPITATION AREA THIS                  
MORNING...WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON.                               
WILL KEEP ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN                     
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS NEAR                
THE REGION. THERE SHOULD BE A VERY SHARP CUT OFF LATER TONIGHT                  
WITH THE CLOUD COVER DECREASING RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST. FOG                  
POTENTIAL IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS              
AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAYBE                
CONSIDERED FOR THE NEXT MIDNIGHT SHIFT.                                         
THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK REMAINS VERY ACTIVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND                 
NORTHERN PLAINS. ALL MODELS INDICATED THAT A VERY DEEP SYNOPTIC                 
SCALE LOW AND LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.               
LATEST GFS HAS THE MAIN CORE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA              
OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THIS WILL LED TO A VERY WARM PATTERN                   
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. ONCE THIS                   
SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD...A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN                  
WILL EVOLVE ACROSS OUR REGION.                                                  
JLT                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...EXPECT CEILINGS TO BUILD DOWN TO AT LEAST MVFR               
LEVELS BY 12Z...WITH SPRINGFIELD LIKELY SEEING IFR FOR THE FIRST                
SEVERAL HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. HAVE TIMED PRECIP BASED ON RADAR AND               
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...WITH THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR RAIN AT THE               
AIRPORTS ALSO CENTERED AROUND THE 10-15Z TIME FRAME.                            
UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT COULD KEEP LOWER CEILINGS AND                     
VISIBILITIES OVER THE OZARKS A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE GOING                     
FORECAST INDICATES. ALSO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR WIND SPEEDS LATE IN               
THE FORECAST AS THEY MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.                         
TERRY                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX                                         
427 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...THE TAIL END OF A CENTRAL U.S. STORM SYSTEM WILL                  
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING. THE FRONT NOW CURVES                  
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS EAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE                 
BASE OF THE ASSOCIATED H5 TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS ARKANSAS                     
TODAY...WELL NORTH OF HERE...DIMINISHING THE THREAT FOR STRONGER                
WEATHER AS THE FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVES THROUGH. FOG IS SETTING UP                
AROUND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF                 
THE FRONT AND WINDS REMAIN LIGHT.                                               
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST FROM THE FOUR CORNERS INTO WEST               
TEXAS AND THEN SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH TEXAS TODAY. THE SURFACE FRONT               
SHOULD PUSH INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY THIS EVENING...MOVING THROUGH              
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS               
WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. GENERAL             
THUNDERSTORM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BY SPC FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.              
MASSAGED THE POPS IN THE INHERITED FORECAST WITH A MODEL BLEND...               
BUT THAT EFFORT DID NOT RESULT IN MUCH CHANGE...AND THE FORECAST                
IS STILL SHOWING CHANCE CATEGORY FOR MOST AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.              
THE WEATHER WILL CLEAR RAPIDLY AFTER DAYBREAK TOMORROW ONCE THE                 
FRONT IS THROUGH...WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES. THE              
NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRY THINGS              
OUT AND PRODUCE FAIR AUTUMN WEATHER FOR A FEW DAYS. COOLER THAN                 
NORMAL OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT                
TEMPS WILL OTHERWISE NOT BE ALTERED SIGNIFICANTLY AS A RESULT OF                
THE FRONT.                                                                      
ANOTHER H5 SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST                
ON THURSDAY...KICKING OFF A CHAIN OF EVENTS THAT WILL LEAD TO                   
ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE IN THE FORECAST. A LOW PRESSURE                    
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IN COLORADO AHEAD OF              
THE H5 TROUGH...AND ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTH                       
GULF...WILL SET UP RETURN SOUTHEAST FLOW BY THURSDAY NIGHT.                     
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST                    
UNITED STATES...LEADING TO A DELAY IN THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT                   
FRONT...WHICH WAS ORIGINALLY SCHEDULED FOR SUNDAY. NONETHELESS...               
SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND AS RETURN FLOW BRINGS               
MOISTURE AND EVEN AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTH.                           
A MAJOR H5 LOW AND STORM SYSTEM WILL GET HUNG UP OVER UTAH LATE IN              
THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL BEGIN TO EJECT NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN               
PLAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT WILL THEN BE              
RELEASED AND WILL BE PUSHED SOUTHEAST EARLY IN THE WEEK. A WEAKER               
FRONT THAN FORECAST PREVIOUSLY WILL THEN APPROACH NEXT TUESDAY AND              
WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.                                                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 743 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2008/ RUC80                    
500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS INDICATED A TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND                 
SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING. MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A                 
WEAK COLD FRONT FROM NORTH TEXAS EXTENDING BACK TO PORTIONS OF                  
WEST TX. SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES INDICATE CONVECTION CONTINUE                
TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST TX. WARMER 850MB TEMPERATURES ACROSS                
SOUTH TX APPEAR TO KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE CAPPED ACROSS THE RIO                    
GRANDE PLAINS AND THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. 18Z NAM PROGS                    
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL TX TONIGHT AND MOVING TOWARDS              
SOUTHEAST TX TUESDAY MORNING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO               
REACH THE COASTAL BEND TUES AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS                
MAY DEVELOP AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE CWA. WILL LIKELY REMOVE                 
POPS TONIGHT AND LOWER POPS TUES MORNING UNTIL THE 850MB FRONT                  
ERODES THE CAP ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX LATE TUES MORNING OR EARLY                  
TUES AFTERNOON.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS                   
GUSTING TO AROUND 14 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY UNDER 5 FEET WITH A               
PERIOD OF 8 SECONDS AT 01 CDT/06 UTC. LIGHT WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS             
WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF             
A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AROUND            
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE IN THE WAKE             
OF THE FRONT...BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED             
AT THIS TIME. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS WILL             
THEN PREVAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK SURFACE              
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER DEEP SOUTH              
TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL                 
SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR/MVFR             
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.                              
&&                                                                              
.HYDRO...THE RIO GRANDE RIVER AT THE SAN BENITO GAGE WILL CONTINUE              
TO RISE AS MORE WATER IS RELEASED UPSTREAM. CRESTING IS FORECAST AT             
7 AM CDT ON SATURDAY. SEE THE LATEST SATRVSBRO FOR MORE INFO.                   
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  90  73  86  65 /  50  30   0   0                           
BROWNSVILLE          91  70  87  63 /  50  30  10   0                           
HARLINGEN            91  70  88  62 /  50  30   0   0                           
MCALLEN              93  71  89  62 /  40  30  10   0                           
RIO GRANDE CITY      93  68  92  63 /  20  40  10   0                           
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   88  76  85  70 /  50  30   0   0                           
&&                                                                              
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:                                   
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE                                              
54/66                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX                                  
1207 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
BOTTOM EDGE OF A SQUALL LINE IS BEING INTERFERED WITH BY A SEA                  
BREEZE SO IS TEMPERORARILY BREAKING UP INTO SCATTERED CELLS OVER                
A BROADER AREA OVER THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY. THIS COULD RESULT                 
IN A LONGER IMPACT ON THE AUS TERMINAL AND COULD RESULT IN LESS                 
FOCUSING AND COVERAGE FOR THE SAT METRO AREA TERMINALS. COLD FRONT              
IS MAKING GOOD PROGRESS TOWARD THE DRT AREA, AND LOOKS TO PASS                  
THROUGH DRT BETWEEN 9 AND 10Z AND INTO AUS BY 11Z AND SAT BY 12Z.               
BY 14Z, NEARLY ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS TO CARRY                     
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME EXTRA WINDS WERE ADDED FOR              
THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY DUE TO INCREASING MOS WIND TRENDS                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 848 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2008/                          
UPDATE...PROBABILITIES WERE RECONFIGURED FROM NOW TIL MIDNIGHT AS               
A SUBSIDENT SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALOFT WAS LIMITING DEVELOPMENTS.             
NEW RAOB DATA FROM KDRT AND KCRP REINFORCE IDEA AND POINT TO                    
SEVERAL INVERSIONS IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS AS TEMPERATURES HAD                
INCREASED AND MOISTURE DECREASED IN THE ZONE OF SOUTH-WESTERLIES                
ALOFT. AFTER MIDNIGHT..PROBABILITIES STILL ON TRACK AS LATEST RUC               
SHOWS LAST DISTURBANCE PUSHING TROUGH THROUGH EASTERN CWA INTO                  
RICHER MOISTURE FIELD. THIS WILL DESTABILIZE UPPER LEVELS AT THE                
SAME TIME LOWERING SUBSIDENT SOUTHWEST WIND INFLUENCE.                          
THUS..ACTIVITY SHOULD FORM AGAIN..MAINLY EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR              
LATE TONIGHT.                                                                   
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2008/                           
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
THIS AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS                  
WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES IN THE WARM AND                   
UNSTABLE AIRMASS...IN ADVANCE OF THE DRY LINE AND COLD FRONT.                   
THE PRE-FRONTAL TROF/DRY LINE IS EAST OF K6R6 AND KSJT WITH THE                 
COLD FRONT HAVING PASSED THROUGH KINK AND KLBB. THE BEST LOW LEVEL              
CONVERGENCE WILL OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG            
AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS IS               
LOCATED. THUS THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED                
WITH THE FROPA WILL BE MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. THE FRONTAL                  
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR CWFA OVERNIGHT AND WILL CLEAR OUR                 
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE SOME POST-                    
FRONTAL SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES TUESDAY                 
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST.                      
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER                
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS PATTERN                 
WILL RESULT IN COOL MORNINGS AND WARM AFTERNOONS.                               
GULF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE CWFA ON FRIDAY. ATMOSPHERIC           
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY THRU MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF                
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THUS A WET                 
WEEKEND IS EXPECTED. ATTM THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE               
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS HAS               
BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT SO WENT WITH THE                
HPC DAY 7 GRAPHIC FOR FRONTAL TIMING.                                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              67  86  59  88  57 /  60  10   0   0   0         
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  66  86  54  86  52 /  60  10   0   0   0         
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           68  88  59  87  58 /  10  -    0   0   0         
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       68  86  58  88  54 /  30  10   0   0   0         
&&                                                                              
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
02/18                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
1115 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2008                                                      
.MORNING UPDATE...                                                              
THE MESO-NAM AND ESPECIALLY THE RUC HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE BROAD             
AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER NOW IN WESTERN KENTUCKY. THIS              
AREA OF RAIN HAS DEVELOPED VIA GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LIFT                 
ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A TROUGH. IN                           
ADDITION...ELEVATED INSTABILITY HAS BEEN NOTED ACROSS WESTERN                   
TENNESSEE. AGREE WITH THE RUC WHICH HAS THIS AREA OF RAIN WEAKENING             
WHILE MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD.                                                   
CURRENTLY...PRECIPITABLE WATER AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY ARE MUCH                
LOWER EAST OF INTERSTATE 65. EAST WINDS HAVE KEPT SURFACE DEWPOINTS             
ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS AND LAKE CUMBERLAND                  
REGIONS...ALTHOUGH THEY WILL RISE THIS AFTERNOON AS MOIST AIR MIXES             
DOWNWARD.                                                                       
UPDATED ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ONSET. OUR                 
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...INCLUDING BOWLING GREEN...SHOULD RECEIVE                
RAIN BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE AREAS NORTHEAST OF LOUISVILLE              
AND THE BLUEGRASS REGION WILL NOT SEE PRECIP UNTIL TOWARDS DARK.                
SOME AREAS IN WESTERN KENTUCKY HAVE RECEIVED AN INCH...BUT                      
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS WILL DROP THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS INITIAL BATCH               
OF SHOWERS WEAKEN. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TONIGHT MAY STILL BRING                   
WIDESPREAD RAINS TO THE WHOLE REGION.                                           
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...                                              
MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH            
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A DEEP TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM                    
APPROACH THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL                    
CLOUDINESS IS MOVING INTO THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM. THE              
STORY FOR TODAY REMAINS MUCH THE SAME AS THE LAST FEW DAYS.                     
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH MIDDAY WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE             
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASED POPS IN              
THE EAST BETWEEN 18-00Z AS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN THE            
LATE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THIS TIME            
WITH MUCH OF THE AREA BECOMING CLOUDY BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.                   
THEREFORE...LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT AND EXPECT HIGHS IN THE FROM             
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS MAY ALSO BE GUSTY                 
TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES SOMEWHAT WITH HIGH PRESSURE            
TO OUR EAST AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS                     
INCREASING TO 20 TO 35 KT AT 925 AND 850 MB THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALSO            
AIDE IN SOME STRONGER SURFACE WINDS THROUGH EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT              
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TO BE SEVERE TODAY AND HEAVY RAIN AT             
TIMES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN.                                                 
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE TONIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH AND                
SURFACE LOW CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND DIG. PLENTY OF GULF                   
MOISTURE WILL HAVE BEEN STREAMING NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY AND MANY             
AREAS SHOULD SEE GOOD RAINFALL RATES...WITH DEEP SATURATED WARM                 
CLOUD LAYERS...DESPITE THE RELATIVELY QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM.             
INCREASED POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT TO REFLECT CONFIDENCE IN               
FORECAST AND DUE TO THE ABOVE MENTIONED FACTS AS WELL AS MODEL                  
GUIDANCE BEING IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...PERIODS            
OF MODERATE RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED AND SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE UP TO              
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.                
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WARM DUE TO OVERCAST SKIES. EXPECT            
LOWS TO HOVER AROUND THE 60 DEGREE MARK IN MOST LOCATIONS.                      
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH COLUMBUS DAY)...                                  
A SHARP UPPER TROF LINED UP ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI                 
RIVER AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL MOVE EAST TO THE SPINE OF             
THE APPALACHIANS BY THURSDAY MORNING WHILE DE-AMPLIFYING. AT THE                
SURFACE A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION FROM WEST TO             
EAST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN LOSE MUCH OF ITS                      
IDENTITY TO OUR EAST ON THURSDAY.                                               
BY FAR THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE DURING THE              
DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE WIDE OPEN AND HIGH                 
PRESSURE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER                 
MICHIGAN WILL DRAW THAT MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE                
STRETCHED ACROSS OUR REGION. LOOKS LIKE GOOD SHOWER                             
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY             
ON WEDNESDAY GENERAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 1/4 TO              
1/2 INCH RANGE...SIMILAR TO THE SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH HERE ON               
THE 29TH AND 30TH OF SEPTEMBER. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP               
BUT DYNAMICS WITH THE SYSTEM ARE FAIRLY WEAK.                                   
LATER IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL               
DIG INTO THE AMERICAN WEST...BUILDING A RIDGE OVER THE EAST IN                  
RESPONSE. AS A RESULT IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL RETURN TO DRY WEATHER               
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE UNDER THE RIDGE WITH                     
AFTERNOON HIGHS BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN              
NORMAL.                                                                         
THANKS TO ILN...JKL...AND IND FOR COORD.                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (12Z TAFS)...                                                         
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST 18-21Z.                      
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AT BWG AND SDF AROUND THAT TIME              
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT APPROACH THE AREA LATE THIS             
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WHILE CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR THIS                      
AFTERNOON...VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED TO IFR OR MVFR IN ANY                   
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...SHOWERS            
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD. THIS ACTIVITY                  
SHOULD REACH SDF BY 03-06Z AND LEX BETWEEN 06-09Z. LOCAL MVFR                   
CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME AREAS DIPPING TO               
BKN-OVC AT 2-3 KFT AFTER 06Z. OTHERWISE...VISIBILITIES WILL BE THE              
MAIN ISSUE ONCE RAIN BEGINS AS IT MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. RIGHT NOW              
WENT WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AT BWG AND SDF AND VFR AT LEX THROUGH               
THE TAF PERIOD...HOWEVER THESE COULD BE LOWER IF HEAVIER SHOWERS                
MOVE OVER TAF SITES. RAIN WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING OVER MOST OF THE               
AREA BY THE END OF THIS 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD.                                     
&&                                                                              
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE                                                          
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JSD                                                                
LONG TERM....AL                                                                 
AVIATION.....JSD                                                                
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
1045 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH             
OVER KANSAS/OKLAHOMA THAT IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN TODAY AS IT MOVES            
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL HELP THE COLD FRONT ANALYZED OVER EAST TEXAS               
CONTINUE TO APPROACH OUR CWA TODAY. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE                        
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM EARLY MORNING HAS SHIFTED EAST OF OUR                
CWFA...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER OUR EASTERN HALF. A LINE OF              
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS FORMED OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA WELL                
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS LINE WAS NEARING OUR LOUISIANA                    
PARISHES AND WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI BY AFTERNOON. SPC             
HAS INCREASED RISK TODAY FOR SEVERE STORMS AND A FEW STRONG TO                  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON OVER OUR WEST             
HALF. NOT SURE IF OUR EAST WILL RECOVER IN TIME BUT...BUT A FEW                 
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN THIS             
EVENING. GUIDANCE TODAY WAS TOO LOW ON POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE              
GONE CATEGORICAL THERE BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. ADJUSTED TEMPS AS WELL            
AND UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. /22/                                                
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM...DEEPER MOISTURE IS BEING                    
ADVECTED INTO THE REGION TODAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE                  
RUNNING ABOVE 2 INCHES AT SLIDELL AT 00Z/07 AND ABOVE 1.5 INCHES TO             
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. A WAVE THAT LIFTED NEWD ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS            
LATE YDY/OVERNIGHT HELPED TO FOCUS CONVECTION WITH ONE OR TWO SEVERE            
STORMS EAST OF I-55 EARLY THIS MORNING. RAINFALL HAS PERSISTED JUST             
UPSTREAM ACROSS ARKANSAS TONIGHT...SHOWING VERY SLOW EWD MOVEMENT AS            
THE STRONGER ACTIVITY LIFTS N OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE             
NEAR THE MS RIVER AROUND 00Z/08...MAINTAINING GOOD RAIN CHANCES                 
ACROSS THE AREA. WITH SUCH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE...PERIODS OF HEAVY            
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR IN STRONGER STORMS. THE BETTER LOW LEVEL JET AND            
ASSOCIATED SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE THIS MORNING BUT IS FORECAST TO               
WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON WHEN 850 MB VEERS SLIGHTLY MORE WLY. HOWEVER              
FORCING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO              
MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF STRONG CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING. RAIN                 
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WHEN THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE            
REGION. POPS WILL DECREASE FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WAKE OF THE                
FRONT. /03/                                                                     
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. STUCK WITH GUIDANCE AGAIN                
TODAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO DRY THE AREA OUT...HOPEFULLY THE                    
FORECAST WILL NOT FLIP FLOP. POP VALUES DROPPED FROM 60 PERCENT TO              
10 PERCENT FOR THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR THE WEEKEND.               
CONSIDERED USING A BLEND AND MAINTAINING LOW CHANCE VALUES JUST IN              
CASE THE SYSTEM SPEEDS UP. HOWEVER...THE EUROPEAN KEEPS THE AREA DRY            
AFTER WEDNESDAY. IT HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY DRY FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS.            
TOOK RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. USED             
A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR TEMPS. RAISED HIGHS AND LOWS            
NEARLY EVERYDAY.                                                                
THE BOUNDARY WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH             
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN ZONES.               
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EVERYTHING OUT OF THE AREA...QUICKLY                 
FOLLOWED BY COOL AND DRY AIR. A SURFACE HIGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE              
REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL             
BUILD OVER THE EAST/SOUTHEAST STATES AND HELP KEEP MOISTURE AND RAIN            
TO THE WEST. THE RIDGE SEEMS TO HOLD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. RETURN            
FLOW BY THE WEEKEND WILL WARM THINGS UP...HIGHS MAY APPROACH 90                 
SUNDAY. BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE MODELS NOW SUGGEST THE NEXT            
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE SHOWED            
SOME VERY SMALL RAIN CHANCES...BEING DAY 6 AND 7 OPTED TO KEEP THE              
AREA DRY. WILL LEAVE THE HWO CLEAR FOR THE EXTENDED. /07/                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...UPDATED                                                             
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.               
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WITH PERIODS OF              
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL. ISOLATED EPISODES OF DAMAGING            
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER             
STORMS. EXPECT THE STRONGEST STORMS TO AFFECT KGLH...KGWO...KJAN FOR            
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN AFFECT KGTR...KMEI AND KHBG SITES FOR TONIGHT.            
PUT IN WIND GUSTS OF 35G45KT AT TAF SITES WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.             
EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS FOR THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS THE WEST              
AND WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE EAST HALF./17/                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       83  60  78  57 /  75  44   7   0                                  
MERIDIAN      79  62  79  55 /  84  60  21   0                                  
VICKSBURG     84  59  79  54 /  62  28   3   1                                  
HATTIESBURG   82  63  79  55 /  86  50  13   1                                  
NATCHEZ       84  58  79  54 /  55  21   3   1                                  
GREENVILLE    83  59  77  56 /  76  36   7   0                                  
GREENWOOD     78  59  77  56 /  84  54  12   0                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
22/3/7/17                                                                       
</pre> ms                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
638 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2008                                                       
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...                                                        
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A STRONG UPPER LOW WAS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WITH A               
TRAILING COLD/COOL (AIR MASS) FRONT ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. RADAR                
TRENDS MONDAY EVENING AND EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE THE BULK OF THE               
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. EARLIER              
THIS EVENING...A BAND OF HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ONE OF THE              
STRONGER COMPLEXES ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA/WESTERN ARKANSAS LED TO              
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF TO LOCALLY ONE INCH SOUTH AND                      
SOUTHWEST OF THE SPRINGFIELD AREA. AS OF 1 AM...THE BULK OF THE                 
HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED SOUTHEAST OF SPRINGFIELD...AND                    
MAINLY AFFECTING AREAS OF WEST PLAINS...ALTON AND EMINENCE. WATER               
VAPOR AND RUC ANALYSIS STILL SHOWING EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES ACROSS                
KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.                                                   
JLT                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
AS THE STRONGEST MOISTURE ADVECTION REMAINS SOUTH OF THE                        
REGION...HAVE OPTED TO DECREASE PERCENTAGES TO LIKELY EAST OF                   
SPRINGFIELD...TO SCATTERED WEST OF SPRINGFIELD. HOWEVER...UPPER                 
LEVEL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND WEAK ISENTROPIC                
LIFT AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY OF THE COLD POOL...WILL LIKELY                   
CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION LATER TODAY. WILL LIKELY                 
HOLD OFF UNTIL DAWN TO ADJUST THE MAIN PRECIPITATION AREA THIS                  
MORNING...WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON.                               
WILL KEEP ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN                     
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS NEAR                
THE REGION. THERE SHOULD BE A VERY SHARP CUT OFF LATER TONIGHT                  
WITH THE CLOUD COVER DECREASING RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST. FOG                  
POTENTIAL IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS              
AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAYBE                
CONSIDERED FOR THE NEXT MIDNIGHT SHIFT.                                         
THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK REMAINS VERY ACTIVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND                 
NORTHERN PLAINS. ALL MODELS INDICATED THAT A VERY DEEP SYNOPTIC                 
SCALE LOW AND LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.               
LATEST GFS HAS THE MAIN CORE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA              
OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THIS WILL LED TO A VERY WARM PATTERN                   
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. ONCE THIS                   
SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD...A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN                  
WILL EVOLVE ACROSS OUR REGION.                                                  
JLT                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 1200 UTC KSGF/KJLN TAFS...A MIX MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS ARE               
OCCURRING OVER THE MISSOURI OZARKS EARLY THIS MORNING. A COLD                   
FRONT OVER EASTERN KANSAS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST EAST THROUGH THE                
AREA TODAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SOME SHOWERS AND AT LEAST SOME                   
MODEST RISE IN CEILINGS HEIGHTS IS EXPECTED. BEHIND THE FRONT                   
LOWER IFR/MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. DSA                  
&&                                                                              
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT                                          
912 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE NORTH                
COUNTRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BRINGING FAIR CONDITIONS TO THE                     
REGION. TONIGHT WILL FEATURE CHILLY TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN...ALONG             
WITH AREAS OF FROST. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION               
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR                 
SHOWERS.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
AS OF 905 AM EDT TUESDAY...NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE EXPECTED TODAY AS               
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION SHIFTS SLOWLY           
EWD CRESTING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. SOME CIRRUS EVIDENT              
ON IR IMAGERY NORTH OF THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER MAY AFFECT ERN VT                 
THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED. SFC TEMPERATURES WILL              
MODERATE TODAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO +4 TO +5C                   
BASED ON 13Z RUC ANALYSIS. AFTN HIGH TEMPS JUST A BIT BELOW                     
SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.                 
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON ERN PERIPHERY OF THE                  
HIGH PRESSURE AREA. WITH PBL MIXING...WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10KTS                  
EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING THRU THE AFTN...WITH GUSTS 15-18 KTS                 
IN LOCATIONS WITH NORTHWEST EXPOSURE BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE IN                 
THE DAY.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...                             
AS OF 425 AM EDT TUESDAY...WEATHER TONIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY WILL                  
CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH WILL BE ANCHORED              
OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...THEN SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA               
DURING WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT...WITH MORE                      
FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE 20S AND                 
LOWER 30S...EVEN SOME TEENS PSBL IN THE SHELTERED VLYS OF THE                   
ADRNDKS. NO HEADLINES ATTM HOWEVER...AS SOME LOCATIONS WILL SEE AN              
END TO THE GROWING SEASON THIS MORNING. WILL DEFER TO DAYSHIFT TO               
DECIDE WHICH AREAS WILL STILL REQUIRE NEED FOR ANY HEADLINES. AS                
HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA WED PM...EXPECT AN INCR IN CLDS OVER                
WRN ZONES WITH ONSET OF WAA. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD REST OF THE                 
AREA WED NITE...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHWRS AS                   
WRMFNT AND ASSOCD SHRTWV MOVE INTO THE REGION. BEST CHC FOR SHWRS               
WILL BE OVER NRN ZONES. CHANCE OF SHWRS CONTINUES THURS MORNING AS              
WEAK CDFNT MOVES ACRS THE AREA. TEMPS WED/THURS A LITTLE ABOVE                  
NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S.                                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...                                   
AS OF 425 AM EDT TUESDAY...DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA THURS                
NITE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GRTLKS. THIS HIGH ALONG              
WITH BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH DRY               
WX FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY. ANY LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE THAT FORMS                
OVER THE CAROLINAS IS NOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUPPPRESSED TO OUR                 
SOUTH. STRONG SHRTWV DROPS SOUTHEAST ACRS ERN CANADA SUNDAY INTO                
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BACKDOOR CDFNT TO DROP SOUTH                  
ACRS THE FA BRINGING A CHC OF SHWRS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS                  
SOUTH FROM QUEBEC DURING COLUMBUS DAY.                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...LIFR DEVELOPED AT KSLK OVERNIGHT...AND                  
CONTINUES. KMSS DIPPED BELOW 2 SM AROUND 08Z...BUT RECOVERED TO                 
VFR P6SM SKC. KMPV REMAINED FOG/CIG FREE OVERNIGHT. LIFR AT KSLK                
TO IMPROVE TO VFR P6SM SKC BY 13Z. OTHERWISE VFR CLR                            
ELSEWHERE...WITH NW WIND INCREASING TO 8-10KTS. PUT LIFR FZFG AND               
CIGS AT KVSF AND KMPV AS RIDGE RIGHT OVERHEAD...AND ANY EFFECTS                 
THE LOW LEVEL WIND JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE GONE.                
12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO EAST BY                   
12Z...AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO TURN SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY                 
WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH                     
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE                   
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY WITH CHC FOR MVFR TO VFR SHRA- TO ALL TAF                
SITES. GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM...CONDITIONS                 
SHOULD REMAIN VFR/MVFR. HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER AND VFR                  
CONDS WILL RETURN BY FRIDAY MORNING. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE BACKING              
OFF RAIN POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER                
THE NORTH COUNTRY.                                                              
NOTICE TO USERS OF TERMINAL AERODROME FORECASTS (TAF)...BEGINNING               
AT 0000 UTC ON NOVEMBER 5...2008...THE FORMAT FOR TAFS WILL                     
CHANGE. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BEGIN TO ISSUE TAFS                   
USING A VALID DATE AND TIME GROUP IN THE FORECAST. ALL                          
METEOROLOGICAL AGENCIES WORLDWIDE WILL ALSO ISSUE THEIR TAF                     
FORECASTS IN THIS NEW FORMAT. THIS IS BEING DONE TO ACCOMMODATE                 
30 HOUR TAF FORECASTS THAT WILL BE DONE FOR SELECT MAJOR                        
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORTS WORLDWIDE. THERE WILL BE 32 MAJOR U.S.                   
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORTS FOR WHICH TAFS FORECASTS WILL BE VALID FOR               
30 HOURS. THIS FORMAT CHANGE IS BEING MANDATED BY THE                           
INTERNATIONAL CIVIL AVIATION ORGANIZATION (ICAO). THE 6 TAF                     
FORECASTS BEING DONE BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN                         
BURLINGTON WILL CONTINUE TO BE VALID FOR 24 HOURS. TO SEE                       
EXAMPLES OF THIS NEW FORMAT...PLEASE GO TO THE INTERNET WEB SITE                
LISTED BELOW.                                                                   
WWW.AVIATIONWEATHER.GOV/NOTICE/TAF30.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)                       
&&                                                                              
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VT...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...RJS                                                                  
NEAR TERM...BANACOS                                                             
SHORT TERM...RJS                                                                
LONG TERM...RJS                                                                 
AVIATION...HANSON                                                               
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
714 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2008                                                       
.AVIATION.../12Z UPDATE/                                                        
VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL BEHIND BACK EDGE OF CLOUD SHIELD WHICH IS                  
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS ATTM. WINDS WILL BE              
MAIN CONCERN TODAY AND SHOULD INCREASE TO 33023G33KT BY LATE                    
MORNING PERSISTING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE BY                   
EARLY EVENING. MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IN AREAS THAT              
CAN COMPLETELY DECOUPLE...BUT WILL LEAVE P6SM IN ALL SITES WHERE                
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO KEEP THINGS MIXED.                
91/DUNN                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...                                                                      
HAVE INCREASED WIND SPEED FORECAST FOR TODAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG                 
AND WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. A LOOK AT THE 12Z RAOB ALREADY                   
SHOWS 1000 FT WINDS AT 30 KT...AND RUC FORECASTS TODAY DEPICT                   
30-35 KT WINDS AT 925 MB. THESE WINDS WILL HAVE NO TROUBLE MIXING               
DOWN GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL PUT WESTERN/CENTRAL CWA                 
WINDS AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...WHICH IS JUST                   
ABOVE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM              
TO 6 PM. TR.92                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2008/                          
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS NOW PUSHING THROUGH NORTH TEXAS WITH                 
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION BEING SHUNTED EAST AND SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE                
CWA. WILL HAVE SOME VERY LOW POPS FOR RESIDUAL SHOWERS IN THE                   
EXTREME EASTERN ZONES THIS MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE                
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER              
LEVEL LOW WILL INTENSIFY AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH TODAY AND              
TONIGHT OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME              
WRAP AROUND LOW CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHEAST/EASTERN ZONES THIS                    
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS WILL BE                  
SUNNY TODAY...WITH MODEST DRY/COLD ADVECTION TAKING PLACE BEHIND                
THE FRONT. DEEP MIXING IS ANTICIPATED TODAY...WHICH SHOULD RESULT               
IN N/NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. WINDS SHOULD                
DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING                   
ALLOWING FOR LOWS IN THE MID 40S NW TO MID 50S SE.                              
VERY NICE WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS LIGHT                 
WINDS AND DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE              
TO BE PLEASANTLY COOL AT NIGHT AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING                 
THE DAY. CHANGES ARE EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND AS SOUTHERLY FLOW                  
ORGANIZES AHEAD OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE INTER                     
MOUNTAIN WEST. CLOUDS/MOISTURE...BOTH FROM THE GULF IN THE LOW                  
LEVELS AND FROM THE PACIFIC IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WILL STREAM               
INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.                                            
MODELS TODAY ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT...WITH THE GFS SIDING                 
IN THE ECMWF FORECAST CAMP OF THE LAST FEW DAYS. IT APPEARS THAT                
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS WHICH WILL                
HOLD THE FRONT UP UNTIL MONDAY OR TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE                
SLOWER SOLUTION...HAVE PUSHED BACK THE POPS AND KEPT WARM/MUGGY                 
TEMP FORECAST GOING THROUGH MONDAY. WILL SHOW SOME LOW POPS                     
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES LIKELY                   
OCCURRING WITH FROPA MONDAY NIGHT.                                              
TR.92                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  79  54  84  58  86 /   0   0   0   0   0                  
WACO, TX              83  52  84  53  87 /   5   0   0   0   0                  
PARIS, TX             75  51  79  51  82 /  10   0   0   0   0                  
DENTON, TX            78  49  82  51  86 /   0   0   0   0   0                  
MCKINNEY, TX          77  50  81  49  84 /   5   0   0   0   0                  
DALLAS, TX            79  56  83  58  85 /   5   0   0   0   0                  
TERRELL, TX           78  54  82  54  85 /  10   0   0   0   0                  
CORSICANA, TX         82  54  84  54  87 /  10   0   0   0   0                  
TEMPLE, TX            84  53  86  54  88 /  10   0   0   0   0                  
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ091>093-                     
100>104-115>120-129>134-141>145-156>159.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
 /                                                                              
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
635 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
HAVE INCREASED WIND SPEED FORECAST FOR TODAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG                 
AND WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. A LOOK AT THE 12Z RAOB ALREADY                   
SHOWS 1000 FT WINDS AT 30 KT...AND RUC FORECASTS TODAY DEPICT                   
30-35 KT WINDS AT 925 MB. THESE WINDS WILL HAVE NO TROUBLE MIXING               
DOWN GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL PUT WESTERN/CENTRAL CWA                 
WINDS AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...WHICH IS JUST                   
ABOVE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM              
TO 6 PM. TR.92                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2008/                          
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS NOW PUSHING THROUGH NORTH TEXAS WITH                 
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION BEING SHUNTED EAST AND SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE                
CWA. WILL HAVE SOME VERY LOW POPS FOR RESIDUAL SHOWERS IN THE                   
EXTREME EASTERN ZONES THIS MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE                
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER              
LEVEL LOW WILL INTENSIFY AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH TODAY AND              
TONIGHT OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME              
WRAP AROUND LOW CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHEAST/EASTERN ZONES THIS                    
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS WILL BE                  
SUNNY TODAY...WITH MODEST DRY/COLD ADVECTION TAKING PLACE BEHIND                
THE FRONT. DEEP MIXING IS ANTICIPATED TODAY...WHICH SHOULD RESULT               
IN N/NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. WINDS SHOULD                
DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING                   
ALLOWING FOR LOWS IN THE MID 40S NW TO MID 50S SE.                              
VERY NICE WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS LIGHT                 
WINDS AND DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE              
TO BE PLEASANTLY COOL AT NIGHT AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING                 
THE DAY. CHANGES ARE EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND AS SOUTHERLY FLOW                  
ORGANIZES AHEAD OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE INTER                     
MOUNTAIN WEST. CLOUDS/MOISTURE...BOTH FROM THE GULF IN THE LOW                  
LEVELS AND FROM THE PACIFIC IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WILL STREAM               
INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.                                            
MODELS TODAY ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT...WITH THE GFS SIDING                 
IN THE ECMWF FORECAST CAMP OF THE LAST FEW DAYS. IT APPEARS THAT                
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS WHICH WILL                
HOLD THE FRONT UP UNTIL MONDAY OR TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE                
SLOWER SOLUTION...HAVE PUSHED BACK THE POPS AND KEPT WARM/MUGGY                 
TEMP FORECAST GOING THROUGH MONDAY. WILL SHOW SOME LOW POPS                     
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES LIKELY                   
OCCURRING WITH FROPA MONDAY NIGHT.                                              
TR.92                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  79  54  84  58  86 /   0   0   0   0   0                  
WACO, TX              83  52  84  53  87 /   5   0   0   0   0                  
PARIS, TX             75  51  79  51  82 /  10   0   0   0   0                  
DENTON, TX            78  49  82  51  86 /   0   0   0   0   0                  
MCKINNEY, TX          77  50  81  49  84 /   5   0   0   0   0                  
DALLAS, TX            79  56  83  58  85 /   5   0   0   0   0                  
TERRELL, TX           78  54  82  54  85 /  10   0   0   0   0                  
CORSICANA, TX         82  54  84  54  87 /  10   0   0   0   0                  
TEMPLE, TX            84  53  86  54  88 /  10   0   0   0   0                  
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON                
FOR TXZ091>093-100>104-115>120-129>134-141>145-156>159.                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
91/92                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA                                          
1148 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH NOW PUSHING TOWARD RUSKIN/ALEXANDRIA LINE...WHILE        
CD FNT IS MOVING THRU E TX ATTM. A HUNDRED OR SO MILES BEHIND CD FROPA...       
SOME MVFR CIGS ARE NOTED BTWN 1.5-2.5 KFT AND WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW             
A BLEND OF THE RUC40/GFS40 BL MOISTURE FCSTS WHICH MAY CLR A FEW OF             
THE E TX AIRPORTS OUT AN HR OR TWO SOONER THAN CURRENTLY FCST.                  
AIRMASS WILL SEE DRYING WITH DECENT CAA BEHIND FROPA OVERNIGHT...AS             
SLY WINDS AHEAD OF SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY SHIFT WLY 8-11 KTS...THEN NWLY          
10-15 KTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KTS PSBL THRU 03Z. W/NW            
WINDS DIMINISHING BELOW 10 KTS WITH RAPID DECOUPLING WITH INTENSIFYING          
SFC INVERSION THRU DAYBREAK OR 12Z- 14Z WED...BEFORE MIXING RESULTS             
IN NW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS TOWARD 18Z WED.                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
A FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE CONCERNING              
HIGH TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE                
BIT OF A CHALLENGE WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS              
AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA MAKING IT WAY EASTWARD. TROPICAL AIR                     
REMAINS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH BROKEN CLOUD COVER AND               
SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EAST. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN                
KEEPING A LID ON TEMPERATURE INCREASES OVER MUCH OF THE                         
REGION...SO THEREFORE HAVE LOWERED HIGHS AREAWIDE...KEEPING IN                  
MIND THAT TEMPERATURES WILL SPIKE UPWARD WHERE SUNSHINE BREAKS                  
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MORNING RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES SHOWERS                 
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND                     
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...BUT WITH THE FRONT STILL TO THE WEST...AND                  
DEWPOINTS HOVERING IN THE UPPER 60S AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...EXPECT              
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON                  
HEATING...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. LAPSE RATES               
AND CAPE VALUES WITH BE SUFFICIENT THAT ISOLATED SEVERE                         
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP...WITH BOTH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS               
AS THREATS. /18/                                                                
AVIATION...                                                                     
PREFRONTAL TROUGH RESIDES ACROSS SW AR INTO NE TX WITH THE TRUE                 
FRONT WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS NE TX AND SE OK.              
CONVECTION THIS MORNING REMAINS CONFINED OUT AHEAD OF THE                       
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND NE LA. DEPENDING ON               
WHERE THIS CONVECTION IS CLOSER TO THE 18Z PACKAGE...MAY NEED TO                
MAKE MENTION OF AN HOUR OR TWO TEMPO TSRA AT MLU/ELD TERMINALS.                 
OTHERWISE... CEILINGS WILL REMAIN TRICKY BEHIND THE PREFRONTAL                  
TROUGH WITH MANY TERMINALS ACROSS NE TX WITH IFR CEILINGS.                      
STRATOCUMULUS DECK WILL CONTINUE TO FILL IN BEHIND THE INITIAL                  
BOUNDARY WITH MOST TERMINALS KEEPING IFR/LOW MVFR CEILINGS                      
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. CLOUDS SPILLING SOUTHWARD                  
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS BEHIND THE SECONDARY BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY KEEP               
CLOUDS SOCKED IN OVERNIGHT AS WELL. WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW WIND                  
GUSTS FROM THE NW BEHIND THE SECONDARY BOUNDARY AS WELL AT NE TX                
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS DECOUPLE TONIGHT. /13/                    
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
SHV MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM                                   
MLU MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM                                   
DEQ MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM                                   
TXK MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM                                   
ELD MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM                                   
TYR MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM                                   
GGG MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM                                   
LFK MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AR...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
18/15/05                                                                        
</pre> la                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
409 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM              
FL TO HUDSON BAY AND A TROUGH FROM MANITOBA TO OK/NE TX. A LARGE                
ARES OF PCPN FROM ERN MN INTO WRN WI WAS SUPPORTED BY 850-500 MB                
QVECTOR CONV AND 900-700 MB FGEN AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. AN              
ADDITIONAL BATCH OF RAIN FROM ERN IA AND NRN IL INTO SRN/CNTRL WI               
WAS SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE OVER CNTRL IL. AT THE                              
SFC...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PREVAILED THROUGH THE CWA BTWN HIGH PRES               
OVER THE ERN LAKES AND A FRONT/TROUGH EXTENDED FROM ERN MN TO LOW               
PRES OVER CNTRL MO.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WED)...                                                
TONIGHT...EXPECT THE AREA OF SHOWERS TO THE WEST TO GRADUALLY SPREAD            
INTO WEST UPPER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME...THE RAIN              
AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE IL SHRTWV AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW WILL LIFT             
NE INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT(AFT 03Z) INTO               
THE EAST HALF. SO WHILE THE HEAVIEST PCPN...IN THE 0.25-0.50 INCH               
RANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEST AND EASTERN THIRDS...FCST INCLUDES              
CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE AREA AS THE COMBINATION OF DECENT MOISTURE            
TRANSPORT (PWAT VALUES TO 1.00-1.25 INCH) AND MODERATE QG DYNAMICS              
BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE CWA.                                           
WED...AS THE SHRTWV AND MID LEVEL TROUGH LIFT TO THE ENE AND 700-300            
MB QVECTOR CONV/SFC/MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN LINGERING RAIN IS               
EXPECTED TO DEPART FROM THE EAST HALF BTWN 12Z-15Z WITH ONLY                    
LEFTOVER SLIGHT CHANCE TOWARD KERY BTWN 15Z-18Z. CLEARING SHOULD                
WORK INTO THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND LATE OVER THE EAST HALF.                
.LONG TERM (WED NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUE)...                                      
WED NIGHT AND THU...A DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH THE AREA MOSTLY IN            
A DRY SLOT. THIS DRY SLOT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT UPPER                  
TROUGH OVER SW CANADA THAT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TO             
NEAR JAMES BAY BY 00Z FRI. ALTHOUGH THE PCPN FORECAST IS DRY...THERE            
ARE A FEW ITEMS OF INTEREST. FIRST LOOKS TO BE A BAND OF MID CLOUDS             
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK 850MB THETA-E ADVECTION THAT CROSSES WED NIGHT             
WEST TO EAST. THIS BAND OF CLOUDS COULD HELP HOLD TEMPERATURES                  
UP...DESPITE 0.25 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ADVECTING IN FROM              
THE WEST. ANOTHER ITEM TO HOLD TEMPERATURES UP IS THE WINDS.                    
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE A FAIRLY DEEP SFC LOW                  
(AROUND 995MB). AS THIS LOW MOVES INTO NW ONTARIO LATE WED NIGHT AND            
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SE INTO IOWA...WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE.               
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INCREASING ON THU AS THE LOW MOVES               
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND THE HIGH SHIFTS ACROSS SOUTHERN                     
WI...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. IN ADDITION...WITH A DRY                 
AIRMASS MOVING IN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER LESS THAN 0.25 INCH                   
PROMOTING DAYTIME MIXING...TRANSPORT OF WINDS TO THE SURFACE WILL BE            
BETTER. IN FACT...GUSTS OF 40 MPH OR SO LOOK LIKELY OVER THE                    
KEWEENAW. FUTURE SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO MONITOR THE NEED FOR A WIND                 
ADVISORY THERE. REGARDING TEMPS...STAYED CLOSER TO MAV GUIDANCE FOR             
LOWS ON WED NIGHT WHICH ARE WARMER THAN THE MET...WHICH SEEMS BETTER            
TO GO WITH GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND INCREASING WIND. ON THU...ALTHOUGH              
850MB TEMPS ARE A COOLER 2-4C...DEEP MIXING IN THE DRY SLOT IS                  
EXPECTED...POSSIBLY UP TO 750MB. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR READINGS IN              
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...WARMEST SOUTH CENTRAL.                               
THU NIGHT AND FRI...LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP DURING             
THIS PERIOD OVER THE WESTERN U.S....CAUSING RIDGING TO DEVELOP                  
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY NORTH INTO THE                   
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS BUILDING RIDGE SHOULD SHOVE THE UPPER                 
TROUGH OVER JAMES BAY EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC...ALLOWING THE HIGH                  
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER SRN WI AT 00Z FRI TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS UPPER MI             
FRI MORNING. THIS SFC RIDGE WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH...WHICH                
WOULD BE GOOD FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. ONLY PROBLEM IS THAT                     
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES THROUGH THE NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH             
THE WARM ADVECTION FROM THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. THE NAM AND GFS               
EVEN PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PCPN OUT OF THE FRONTOGENESIS...ESPECIALLY              
THE NAM. ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IS DRY INITIALLY...                     
PRECIPITABLE WATER PROGS SUGGEST THAT IT MAY MOISTEN UP FAIRLY QUICK            
THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO HAVE DECIDED TO INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE               
POPS. THESE LOWER POPS SHIFT OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR ON FRI AS               
WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES...WHICH ALLOWS FOR DRY WEATHER OVER UPPER              
MI ON FRI. SKIES...HOWEVER...WILL STILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.             
FOLLOWED AGAIN CLOSER TO MAV GUIDANCE FOR THU NIGHT GIVEN THE                   
INCREASING CLOUDS...THOUGH INTERIOR AREAS MAY STILL BE ABLE TO DROP             
INTO THE MID 30S WITH THE MOSTLY CLEAR EVENING. ON FRI...CLOUDS WILL            
BE THICKEST OVER THE WEST...KEEPING READINGS IN THE MID 50S THERE.              
WARMER READINGS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL WITH MORE SUN AND                 
850MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO AROUND 6C.                                              
FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUE...                                                        
MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS...HAVE COME INTO             
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF AND PREVIOUS ECMWF RUNS                
REGARDING THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. 00Z GFS ENSEMBLES STILL HAVE SOME            
SPREAD...ESPECIALLY INTO MON AND TUE... WITH THE EJECTION SPEED OF              
THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH. HOWEVER...EVEN THE ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED              
TOWARDS THE ECMWF. THE 00Z UKMET ALSO LOOKS A BIT MORE LIKE THE                 
ECMWF AS WELL...THOUGH THE COLD FRONT IT SHOWS MOVING THROUGH UPPER             
MI SAT NIGHT IS NOT SUPPORTED BY ANY OF THE OTHER MODELS.                       
THEREFORE...EXTENDED FORECAST WILL RELY ON A BLEND OF THE 00Z                   
ECMWF/06Z GFS...WHICH MAINTAINS MORE FORECAST CONTINUITY.                       
FRI NIGHT AND SAT EXHIBITS A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WITH BUILDING               
HEIGHTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...IN RESPONSE TO THE WESTERN TROUGH                
CLOSING OFF INTO A LARGE UPPER LOW AND NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY                   
PASSING ACROSS HUDSON BAY. THIS WARM ADVECTION COULD SET OFF SOME               
SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE            
THE BETTER FRONTOGENESIS IS TAKING PLACE. THE 06Z GFS PAINTED                   
SHOWERS OVER UPPER MI AND NRN WI AS WELL...THOUGH SOUNDINGS SUGGEST             
THIS MIGHT BE SUSPECT. NONETHELESS...DO BELIEVE THE GFS SCENARIO OF             
SOME SORT OF STRATUS DECK FORMING AS MORE MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE               
COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE CWA. THIS STRATUS DECK MAY MIX OUT SOME ON              
SAT...PROBABLY IN DOWNSLOPE AREAS...WHILE SE UPSLOPE LOCATIONS SUCH             
AS THE CENTRAL U.P. MAY HAVE MORE TROUBLE. FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN            
NIGHT...CWA IS MOSTLY UNDER UPPER RIDGING...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS THAT             
COULD APPROACH AN UNSEASONABLY HIGH 588 DAM. THE GFS AND ECMWF                  
SUGGEST WARM ADVECTION PCPN STILL AFFECTING WESTERN AND NORTHERN                
LAKE SUPERIOR SAT NIGHT...THEN LIFTING INTO ONTARIO ON SUN. GFS IS              
THEN DRY THROUGH SUN NIGHT...THOUGH THE ECMWF DEPICTS SOME SHOWERS              
OVER THE EASTERN U.P. THROUGH LOWER MI SUN AFTN INTO SUN NIGHT.                 
THESE APPARENTLY ARE RELATED TO SOME CONVERGENCE ALONG A BACK DOOR              
COLD FRONT TRYING TO DROP SOUTH ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.            
ALSO...THE ECMWF SHOWS PCPN MOVING INTO THE FAR WESTERN CWA                     
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN UPPER LOW EJECTING OUT. WILL FOLLOW                 
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF IDEA SINCE IT HAS CONTINUITY. FINALLY FOR MON               
INTO TUE...WARM ADVECTION/UPPER JET/DPVA FORCED PCPN AHEAD OF THE               
EJECTING WESTERN TROUGH/UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA. TIMING                
WISE...IT APPEARS AT LEAST THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI WILL BE                    
AFFECTED ON MON...PERHAPS ALL OF UPPER MI MON NIGHT AND EASTERN                 
UPPER MI ON TUE. ADJUSTMENTS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE TO THE PCPN                    
TIMING...WHICH WILL DEPEND ON THE WESTERN TROUGH EJECTION.                      
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE                       
NORMAL...WITH SOME HUMIDITY POSSIBLY CREEPING IN AS WELL FOR SUN                
INTO MON. HOW WARM TEMPS GET WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF                       
SUNSHINE...WHICH IS TRICKY TO FORECAST GIVEN LOW SUN ANGLE NOT                  
ALLOWING FOR AS MUCH MIXING...AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOW CLOUDS                
GIVEN MOISTURE MOVING IN. 850MB TEMPS OF 10-12C THROUGH AT LEAST MON            
DEFINITELY SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR WARM DAYS.                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CONDITIONS AT KCMX/KSAW WILL GIVE WAY TO IFR CIGS/VSBY TONIGHT              
AS A BAND OF SHOWERS OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN MOVES                  
SLOWLY THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN. ONLY SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR                    
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED WED MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTS               
OVER THE REGION.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN                
GREAT LAKES AND A TROUGH/FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM EASTERN              
MN WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STIFF SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KT TONIGHT              
OVER CNTRL AND EAST LAKE SUPERIOR. GENERALLY LIGHT WEST WINDS BEHIND            
THE FRONT IN THE 5 TO 15 KT RANGE WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KT OVER             
THE WEST AS LOW PRESSURE SIDES FROM CNTRL CANADA TOWARD NW ONTARIO.             
BREEZY WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT TO START OFF WED EVENING WILL                  
INCREASE THROUGH WED NIGHT AND THU...DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE               
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING SOUTHERN WI AND LOW PRESSURE            
CROSSING FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO. GALE FORCE WINDS            
OF 35 KT ARE POSSIBLE OVER WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR.                
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY LATE THU NIGHT AND THROUGH                 
EARLY FRI AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER SOUTHERN WI MOVES            
NORTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. BY LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND INTO FRI                  
EVENING...A PERIOD OF ENE WINDS OF UP TO 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE OVER                
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...DUE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS             
AND THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA STRENGTHENING AS IT LIFTS INTO NE                    
ONTARIO. THESE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO BELOW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT              
FRI NIGHT...AND STAY THAT WAY UNTIL LATER SUN WHEN THE LOW                      
APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES. AT THAT TIME...E TO SE WINDS OF 15 TO 25            
KT ARE EXPECTED.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR                 
     LSZ242>244-263-264.                                                        
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...JLB                                                       
LONG TERM...AJ                                                                  
AVIATION...JLB                                                                  
MARINE...JLB/AJ                                                                 
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
135 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2008                                                       
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION                                             
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
09Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED AN UPR                
TROUGH OVER THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS WITH RIDGING OVER THE GREAT                  
LAKES. A PLUME OF MOISTURE AND FORCING AHEAD OF THE UPR TROUGH                  
SUPPORTING AN AREA OF PCPN FROM THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH IA AND MN.               
PRECIPITABLE WATER PLOT INDICATING VALUES OF AROUND 1.3 INCHES ALONG            
THE AXIS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
TODAY...MODELS SEEM TO BE TRENDING SLOWER YET WITH ADVANCE OF UPR               
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NRN PLAINS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE               
PROMINENT RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES. THE RIDGE IS               
FCST TO GRADUALLY MOVE EAST TODAY WITH THE ADVANCE OF THE UPR TROUGH            
ALLOWING FOR THE SFC TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE FAR WRN PORTION OF THE             
CWA. GIVEN THE HIGH PCPN WATER VALUES OF OVER AN INCH MOVING IN                 
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH...DECIDED TO KEEP LIKELY POPS IN FOR              
THE FAR WEST THIS AFTERNOON BUT TRIMMED BACK POPS TO SLIGHT CHC OVER            
WRN MQT...DICKINSON AND MNM COUNTIES LATE. NOT SURE HOW WELL WE WILL            
MIX TODAY GIVEN THICKENING OF HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AND                     
PREVAILING SE FLOW...BUT DECIDED TO FAVOR SLIGHTLY WARMER MET                   
GUIDANCE WHICH IS ALSO IN LINE WITH GOING FCST OF 60-65F. SNDGS                 
INDICATE EVEN IF WE MIX TO JUST OVER 900MB...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO               
REACH INTO THE LOWER 60S TO MID 60S. WARMEST READINGS CAN BE                    
EXPECTED IN DOWNSLOPE SE FLOW AREAS... WITH COOLEST READINGS                    
DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN.                                                      
TONIGHT...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC TROUGH COME MORE INTO PHASE              
AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. DPVA AHEAD OF THE UPR                  
TROUGH AND A BROAD AREA OF 300-305K ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL COMBINE                
WITH STRONG MOISTURE INFLOW (PWAT VALUES OF 1.00-1.25 INCHES) TO                
SUPPORT DECENT COVERAGE OF RAIN. KEPT LIKELY POPS OVER MUCH OF THE              
FCST AREA.                                                                      
WED INTO THU...ANY LEFTOVER RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEPART THE EAST HALF            
OF THE CWA WED MORNING. MODELS THEN INDICATE A MORE ZONAL FLOW                  
PATTERN WITH A MID LEVEL LOW AND SFC TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NRN                  
MANITOBA INTO NW ONTARIO AND A DRY WRLY FLOW OVER THE UPR GREAT                 
LAKES.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CONDITIONS AT KCMX/KSAW WILL GIVE WAY TO IFR CIGS/VSBY TONIGHT              
AS A BAND OF SHOWERS OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN MOVES                  
SLOWLY THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN. ONLY SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR                    
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED WED MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTS               
OVER THE REGION.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO            
AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA ARE CREATING NBREEZY                
SOUTHEAST WINDS WHICH WILL CONTINUE ON LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY...                   
ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST HALF WHERE WINDS GUST SPEEDS OF UP TO 30 KT              
ARE POSSIBLE. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE            
THIS AFTERNOON AND CROSS THE REST OF THE LAKE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY            
MORNING...WINDS SHOULD FALL BELOW 20 KT AND GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE              
SOUTHWEST. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS CENTRAL CANADA              
TO HUDSON BAY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES               
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES CAUSING AN INCREASING WEST WIND OVER LAKE              
SUPERIOR...POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO 30 KNOTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND                 
THURSDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE. THE HIGH PRESSURE             
AREA OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES SHOULD EXPAND UP INTO THE LAKE               
SUPERIOR ON FRIDAY BRINGING WINDS DOWN BELOW 20 KT. AS THE FRONTAL              
BOUNDARY SET UP OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY            
SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 25 KT MAY AFFECT LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THIS                
PERIOD.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE                                                            
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DICUSSION...VOSS                                                       
AVIATION...JLB                                                                  
MARINE...DLG                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
315 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC                
ANALYSIS SHOWS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER OKLAHOMA THAT IS                  
PROGGED TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST AND FORM A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHEAST             
MISSISSIPPI WEDNESDAY. THIS CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE                  
SOUTHEAST ACROSS GEORGIA THURSDAY. THE DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW WAS                
HELPING DRIVE A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON TOWARD OUR CWFA. LATEST               
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED THE COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN ARKANSAS                    
DROPPING SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND            
THUNDERSTORMS FORMED AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA                  
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AND HAS SINCE OUTRUN THE COLD FRONT AND HAS              
MOVED THE ACTIVITY OVER INTO MISSISSIPPI. AHEAD OF THE MAIN                     
CONVECTION THERE WAS A WARM MOIST AIRMASS. SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE              
IN THE LOWER 70S AND TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER 80S. RAIN COOLED            
AIR HAS KNOCKED TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE 70S OVER OUR PARISHES AND            
ARKANSAS COUNTIES. THIS WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM            
DEVELOPMENT IN OUR WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE THE              
FRONT MOVES IN. WL CONTINUE MENTION OF THE POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG TO            
SEVERE STORMS OVER OUR MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES THIS EVENING. THE COLD              
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT 00Z               
AND BE NEAR INTERSTATE 55 BY MIDNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR              
MISSISSIPPI BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE                      
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER BY WEDNESDAY                             
MORNING...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT WILL               
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI WILL RESULT IN PATCHY DRIZZLE IN               
THE NORTH INTO THE AFTERNOON. CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND THE              
PROXIMITY OF THE CLOSED LOW WILL RESULT IN A COOLER DAY WEDNESDAY.              
MAV GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES HAVE COME IN A LITTLE TOO COOL. WL LEAN               
TOWARD 00Z MAV TEMPS WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S              
NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTH. THE CLOSED LOW WILL SHIFT EAST                    
THURSDAY AND RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL INCREASE OVER OUR                   
REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMER AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK ABOVE NORMAL              
THURSDAY. THE DRY AIRMASS ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO            
A COUPLE OF COOL NIGHTS THOUGH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE BACK INTO THE            
50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS. /22/                                         
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...STUCK WITH GUIDANCE AGAIN. THE            
GFS CONTINUES TO DRY THE AREA OUT...HOPEFULLY THE FORECAST WILL NOT             
FLIP FLOP. POP VALUES DROPPED FROM 60 PERCENT TO 10 PERCENT FOR THE             
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. CONSIDERED              
USING A BLEND AND MAINTAINING LOW CHANCE VALUES JUST IN CASE THE                
SYSTEM SPEEDS UP. HOWEVER...THE EUROPEAN KEEPS THE AREA DRY AFTER               
WEDNESDAY. IT HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY DRY FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS. TOOK             
RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. USED A                
BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR TEMPS. RAISED HIGHS AND LOWS              
NEARLY EVERYDAY.                                                                
A SURFACE HIGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY...AN            
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EAST/SOUTHEAST STATES AND HELP            
KEEP MOISTURE AND RAIN TO THE WEST. THE RIDGE SEEMS TO HOLD THROUGH             
EARLY NEXT WEEK. RETURN FLOW BY THE WEEKEND WILL WARM THINGS                    
UP...HIGHS MAY APPROACH 90 SUNDAY. BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE             
MODELS NOW SUGGEST THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA                  
AROUND WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE SHOWED SOME VERY SMALL RAIN                          
CHANCES...BEING DAY 6 AND 7 OPTED TO KEEP THE AREA DRY. WILL LEAVE              
THE HWO CLEAR FOR THE EXTENDED. /07/                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...FOR THIS AFTERNOON VFR/MVFR CEILINGS(AROUND 2500 FT)                
WERE NOTED ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.                
SOME BRIEF SMALL BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER WERE ALSO NOTED. OCCASIONAL              
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WITH PERIODS OF FREQUENT                
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL. ISOLATED EPISODES OF DAMAGING                     
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER             
STORMS. EXPECT THE STRONGEST STORMS TO AFFECT KGLH...KGWO...KJAN FOR            
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN AFFECT NEAR KJAN...KGTR...KMEI AND KHBG SITES             
FOR TONIGHT. PUT IN WIND GUSTS OF 35G45KT AT TAF SITES WITH THE                 
STRONGER STORMS. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS FOR THE TAF PERIOD             
ACROSS THE WEST AND WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE EAST HALF.               
EXPECT THE IFR CEILINGS TO HOLD THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING./17/                  
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       59  76  54  80 /  73   5   0   0                                  
MERIDIAN      61  76  54  81 /  96  22   0   0                                  
VICKSBURG     57  77  52  81 /  51   2   0   0                                  
HATTIESBURG   64  78  53  81 /  82  11   0   0                                  
NATCHEZ       58  77  51  80 /  49   2   0   0                                  
GREENVILLE    59  75  53  83 /  48   4   0   0                                  
GREENWOOD     59  74  53  81 /  69   7   1   0                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM:22                                                                   
LONG TERM: 07                                                                   
AVIATION: 17                                                                    
</pre> ms                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
143 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT LOW CLOUDS ERODING MORE QUICKLY FROM                
THE WEST THAN EXPECTED. SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ON THE BACKSIDE OF                
THE UPPER TROUGH HAS BEEN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO PREVENT ANY WESTWARD           
EXPANSION OF THE SCU FIELD DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. WE ALSO HAVE                 
NUDGED HIGH TEMPS UP A BIT IN A FEW LOCATIONS.                                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1135 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2008/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS HOLDING UP WELL FOR TODAY. THE CLEARING                 
LINE WITH THE LOW CLOUDS HAS SLOWLY SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF                      
INTERSTATE 35 DURING THE MORNING. THIS GENERAL TREND SHOULD                     
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS RUC INDICATES THAT THE AIRMASS                 
WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO                 
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA LEVELS ALTHOUGH ONE OR TWO SPOTS                 
COULD OCCASIONALLY BRUSH IT. SPEEDS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS                
EVENING AS DECOUPLING OCCURS.                                                   
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2008/                           
DISCUSSION...SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SHOWED THE MID AND UPPER                
TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSING INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA...REPLACED BY DRIER               
DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND SINKING AIR. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER                   
THIS MORNING...WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS. THE GREATEST COMBINATION OF              
COLD ADVECTION AND DIABATIC HEATING WILL OCCUR FROM SOUTHWEST                   
OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...AND THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR A WINDY            
DAY WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. OVERALL THOUGH...THE SUSTAINED               
WIND LOOKS TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. TEMPERATURES WILL                 
REBOUND TO THE 70S OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...BUT                 
CLOUDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS MAY HOLD ON A WHILE LONGER TO THE EAST             
OF INTERSTATE 35...WHERE MODELS DEPICT A LOW LEVEL CLOUD LAYER                  
TRAPPED BENEATH A STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL INVERSION.                            
CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT BY EVENING...AND A SURFACE RIDGE WILL RELAX THE            
WINDS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A CHILLY NIGHT...AND WE GAVE SOME                  
THOUGHT TO THE POSSIBILITY OF TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S UP              
NORTH. WE ARE APPROACHING THE FROST SEASON...BUT IN THIS CASE IT                
APPEARS THAT WARM ADVECTION ALOFT COUPLED WITH NON-ZERO SURFACE                 
WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM                 
BOTTOMING OUT.                                                                  
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...RETURN FLOW AND A WARMING TREND DEVELOP IN             
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT TROUGH. IT MAKES SENSE THAT LARGE SCALE                     
TROUGHING WILL OCCUR TO EITHER SIDE OF A MEDIUM WAVELENGTH                      
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY RESIDING OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN                       
CALIFORNIA. THUS...THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF RECENT DAYS HAD BEEN                   
PREFERRED...AND THIS MORNING THE GFS DROPPED RIGHT IN LINE WITH THAT            
SOLUTION. THE 00Z GFS WAS THE MODEL OF CHOICE FOR THE EXTENDED...AND            
THIS MADE TEMPERATURE INITIALIZATION FAIRLY EASY. THE MEX                       
POPS...HOWEVER...DID NOT RESPOND TO WHAT LOOKS LIKE A VERY GOOD                 
CHANCE FOR RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS TIMING IS               
SUPPORTED BY BOTH MODELS...AND THE RAIN SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD...AS               
MODERATELY STRONG MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS DRAW MODIFIED GULF AIR UP               
AND OVER A SLOWLY SAGGING FRONT. POPS FOR THOSE PERIODS WERE                    
INCREASED OVER MEX GUIDANCE.                                                    
AVIATION...INTERMITTENT IFR CEILINGS...BKN015...DEVELOPING THIS                 
MORNING FROM PNC TO OKC AND OUN. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RESUME                
UNINTERRUPTED AFTER 15-17Z. ALSO AFTER SUNRISE...SURFACE WINDS WILL             
GUST CLOSE TO 30 KNOTS AT MOST SITES...PARTICULARLY CSM...HBR...LAW             
.SPS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 22Z.                                            
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  50  77  51 /   0   0   0   0                              
HOBART OK         76  49  81  55 /   0   0   0   0                              
WICHITA FALLS TX  78  52  81  55 /   0   0   0   0                              
GAGE OK           75  43  79  51 /   0   0   0   0                              
PONCA CITY OK     69  47  77  51 /  10   0   0   0                              
DURANT OK         72  51  77  52 /  10   0   0   0                              
&&                                                                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
32/30                                                                           
</pre> ok                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
1135 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS HOLDING UP WELL FOR TODAY. THE CLEARING                 
LINE WITH THE LOW CLOUDS HAS SLOWLY SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF                      
INTERSTATE 35 DURING THE MORNING. THIS GENERAL TREND SHOULD                     
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS RUC INDICATES THAT THE AIRMASS                 
WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO                 
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA LEVELS ALTHOUGH ONE OR TWO SPOTS                 
COULD OCCASIONALLY BRUSH IT. SPEEDS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS                
EVENING AS DECOUPLING OCCURS.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SHOWED THE MID AND UPPER                
TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSING INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA...REPLACED BY DRIER               
DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND SINKING AIR. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER                   
THIS MORNING...WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS. THE GREATEST COMBINATION OF              
COLD ADVECTION AND DIABATIC HEATING WILL OCCUR FROM SOUTHWEST                   
OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...AND THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR A WINDY            
DAY WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. OVERALL THOUGH...THE SUSTAINED               
WIND LOOKS TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. TEMPERATURES WILL                 
REBOUND TO THE 70S OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...BUT                 
CLOUDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS MAY HOLD ON A WHILE LONGER TO THE EAST             
OF INTERSTATE 35...WHERE MODELS DEPICT A LOW LEVEL CLOUD LAYER                  
TRAPPED BENEATH A STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL INVERSION.                            
CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT BY EVENING...AND A SURFACE RIDGE WILL RELAX THE            
WINDS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A CHILLY NIGHT...AND WE GAVE SOME                  
THOUGHT TO THE POSSIBILITY OF TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S UP              
NORTH. WE ARE APPROACHING THE FROST SEASON...BUT IN THIS CASE IT                
APPEARS THAT WARM ADVECTION ALOFT COUPLED WITH NON-ZERO SURFACE                 
WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM                 
BOTTOMING OUT.                                                                  
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...RETURN FLOW AND A WARMING TREND DEVELOP IN             
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT TROUGH. IT MAKES SENSE THAT LARGE SCALE                     
TROUGHING WILL OCCUR TO EITHER SIDE OF A MEDIUM WAVELENGTH                      
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY RESIDING OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN                       
CALIFORNIA. THUS...THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF RECENT DAYS HAD BEEN                   
PREFERRED...AND THIS MORNING THE GFS DROPPED RIGHT IN LINE WITH THAT            
SOLUTION. THE 00Z GFS WAS THE MODEL OF CHOICE FOR THE EXTENDED...AND            
THIS MADE TEMPERATURE INITIALIZATION FAIRLY EASY. THE MEX                       
POPS...HOWEVER...DID NOT RESPOND TO WHAT LOOKS LIKE A VERY GOOD                 
CHANCE FOR RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS TIMING IS               
SUPPORTED BY BOTH MODELS...AND THE RAIN SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD...AS               
MODERATELY STRONG MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS DRAW MODIFIED GULF AIR UP               
AND OVER A SLOWLY SAGGING FRONT. POPS FOR THOSE PERIODS WERE                    
INCREASED OVER MEX GUIDANCE.                                                    
AVIATION...INTERMITTENT IFR CEILINGS...BKN015...DEVELOPING THIS                 
MORNING FROM PNC TO OKC AND OUN. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RESUME                
UNINTERRUPTED AFTER 15-17Z. ALSO AFTER SUNRISE...SURFACE WINDS WILL             
GUST CLOSE TO 30 KNOTS AT MOST SITES...PARTICULARLY CSM...HBR...LAW             
..SPS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 22Z.                                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  70  50  77  51 /   0   0   0   0                              
HOBART OK         76  49  81  55 /   0   0   0   0                              
WICHITA FALLS TX  76  52  81  55 /   0   0   0   0                              
GAGE OK           75  43  79  51 /   0   0   0   0                              
PONCA CITY OK     69  47  77  51 /  10   0   0   0                              
DURANT OK         72  51  77  52 /  10   0   0   0                              
&&                                                                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
32/30                                                                           
</pre> ok                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
1150 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
/18Z TAFS/                                                                      
THE ONLY CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS THIS                 
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET OFF THE              
SURFACE WILL KEEP WINDS AROUND 20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. WINDS            
WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET AND DIMINISH TO AROUND 5                    
KNOTS BEFORE DAYBREAK AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO NORTH               
TEXAS. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE WEST AROUND DAY BREAK AS THE CENTER               
OF THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH.                                                
85/NH                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...                                                                      
HAVE INCREASED WIND SPEED FORECAST FOR TODAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG                 
AND WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. A LOOK AT THE 12Z RAOB ALREADY                   
SHOWS 1000 FT WINDS AT 30 KT...AND RUC FORECASTS TODAY DEPICT                   
30-35 KT WINDS AT 925 MB. THESE WINDS WILL HAVE NO TROUBLE MIXING               
DOWN GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL PUT WESTERN/CENTRAL CWA                 
WINDS AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...WHICH IS JUST                   
ABOVE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM              
TO 6 PM. TR.92                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2008/                          
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS NOW PUSHING THROUGH NORTH TEXAS WITH                 
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION BEING SHUNTED EAST AND SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE                
CWA. WILL HAVE SOME VERY LOW POPS FOR RESIDUAL SHOWERS IN THE                   
EXTREME EASTERN ZONES THIS MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE                
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER              
LEVEL LOW WILL INTENSIFY AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH TODAY AND              
TONIGHT OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME              
WRAP AROUND LOW CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHEAST/EASTERN ZONES THIS                    
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS WILL BE                  
SUNNY TODAY...WITH MODEST DRY/COLD ADVECTION TAKING PLACE BEHIND                
THE FRONT. DEEP MIXING IS ANTICIPATED TODAY...WHICH SHOULD RESULT               
IN N/NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. WINDS SHOULD                
DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING                   
ALLOWING FOR LOWS IN THE MID 40S NW TO MID 50S SE.                              
VERY NICE WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS LIGHT                 
WINDS AND DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE              
TO BE PLEASANTLY COOL AT NIGHT AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING                 
THE DAY. CHANGES ARE EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND AS SOUTHERLY FLOW                  
ORGANIZES AHEAD OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE INTER                     
MOUNTAIN WEST. CLOUDS/MOISTURE...BOTH FROM THE GULF IN THE LOW                  
LEVELS AND FROM THE PACIFIC IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WILL STREAM               
INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.                                            
MODELS TODAY ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT...WITH THE GFS SIDING                 
IN THE ECMWF FORECAST CAMP OF THE LAST FEW DAYS. IT APPEARS THAT                
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS WHICH WILL                
HOLD THE FRONT UP UNTIL MONDAY OR TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE                
SLOWER SOLUTION...HAVE PUSHED BACK THE POPS AND KEPT WARM/MUGGY                 
TEMP FORECAST GOING THROUGH MONDAY. WILL SHOW SOME LOW POPS                     
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES LIKELY                   
OCCURRING WITH FROPA MONDAY NIGHT.                                              
TR.92                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  79  54  84  58  86 /   0   0   0   0   0                  
WACO, TX              83  52  84  53  87 /   5   0   0   0   0                  
PARIS, TX             75  51  79  51  82 /  10   0   0   0   0                  
DENTON, TX            78  49  82  51  86 /   0   0   0   0   0                  
MCKINNEY, TX          77  50  81  49  84 /   5   0   0   0   0                  
DALLAS, TX            79  56  83  58  85 /   5   0   0   0   0                  
TERRELL, TX           78  54  82  54  85 /  10   0   0   0   0                  
CORSICANA, TX         82  54  84  54  87 /  10   0   0   0   0                  
TEMPLE, TX            84  53  86  54  88 /  10   0   0   0   0                  
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ091>093-                     
100>104-115>120-129>134-141>145-156>159.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
85/84                                                                           
</pre> tx